Potential hazards from future volcanic eruptions in California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Miller, C. Dan

1989-01-01

More than 500 volcanic vents have been identified in the State of California. At least 76 of these vents have erupted, some repeatedly, during the last 10,000 years. Past volcanic activity has ranged in scale and type from small rhyolitic and basaltic eruptions through large catastrophic rhyolitic eruptions. Sooner or later, volcanoes in California will erupt again, and they could have serious impacts on the health and safety of the State\\'s citizens as well as on its economy. This report describes the nature and probable distribution of potentially hazardous volcanic phenomena and their threat to people and property. It includes hazard-zonation maps that show areas relatively likely to be affected by future eruptions in California. The potentially more hazardous eruptions in the State are those that involve explosive eruption of large volumes of silicic magma. Such eruptions could occur at vents in as many as four areas in California. They could eject pumice high into the atmosphere above the volcano, produce destructive blasts, avalanches, or pyroclastic flows that reach distances of tens of kilometers from a vent, and produce mudflows and floods that reach to distances of hundreds of kilometers. Smaller eruptions produce similar, but less severe and less extensive, phenomena. Hazards are greatest close to a volcanic vent; the slopes on or near a volcano, and valleys leading away from it, are affected most often and most severely by such eruptions. In general, risk from volcanic phenomena decreases with increasing distance from a vent and, for most flowage processes, with increasing height above valley floors or fan surfaces. Tephra (ash) from explosive eruptions can affect wide areas downwind from a vent. In California, prevailing winds cause the 180-degree sector east of the volcano to be affected most often and most severely. Risk to life from ashfall decreases rapidly with increasing distance from a vent, but thin deposits of ash could disrupt communication, transportation, and utility systems at great distances, and over wide regions, in eastern California and adjacent states. Volcanic eruptions are certain to occur in California in the future and an be neither prevented nor stopped, but actions can be taken to limit damage from them. Reduction of risk to life and property can be effected by avoiding threatened areas and by taking protective measures to reduce the effects when and where vulnerable areas cannot be avoided. Monitoring of volcanic precursors generally can identify the locality of impending volcanic activity, even though it often does not pinpoint the nature or timing of an eruption, or even its certainty. Hazard-zonation maps can then be used to guide decisions regarding evacuation and other response activities. Thus, effective monitoring of volcanoes in the State, combined with preparation of contingency plans to deal with future eruptions, can help reduce risk to lives and property.

Uranium-Series Isotopic Constraints on Recent Changes in the Eruptive Behaviour of Merapi Volcano, Java, Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gertisser, R.; Handley, H. K.; Reagan, M. K.; Berlo, K.; Barclay, J.; Preece, K.; Herd, R.

2011-12-01

Merapi volcano (Central Java) is one of the most active and deadly volcanoes in Indonesia. The 2010 eruption was the volcano's largest eruption since 1872 and erupted much more violently than expected. Prior to 2010, volcanic activity at Merapi was characterised by several months of slow dome growth punctuated by gravitational dome failures, generating small-volume pyroclastic density currents (Merapi-type nuées ardentes). The unforeseen, large-magnitude events in 2010 were different in many respects: pyroclastic density currents travelled > 15 km beyond the summit causing widespread devastation in proximal areas on Merapi's south flank and ash emissions from sustained eruption columns resulted in ash fall tens of kilometres away from the volcano. The 2010 events have proved that Merapi's relatively small dome-forming activity can be interrupted at relatively short notice by larger explosive eruptions, which appear more common in the geological record. We present new geochemical and Uranium-series isotope data for the volcanic products of both the 2006 and 2010 eruptions at Merapi to investigate the driving forces behind this unusual explosive behaviour and their timescales. An improved knowledge of these processes and of changes in the pre-eruptive magma system has important implications for the assessment of hazards and risks from future eruptive activity at Merapi.

Chronology of Postglacial Eruptive Activity and Calculation of Eruption Probabilities for Medicine Lake Volcano, Northern California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nathenson, Manuel; Donnelly-Nolan, Julie M.; Champion, Duane E.; Lowenstern, Jacob B.

2007-01-01

Medicine Lake volcano has had 4 eruptive episodes in its postglacial history (since 13,000 years ago) comprising 16 eruptions. Time intervals between events within the episodes are relatively short, whereas time intervals between the episodes are much longer. An updated radiocarbon chronology for these eruptions is presented that uses paleomagnetic data to constrain the choice of calibrated ages. This chronology is used with exponential, Weibull, and mixed-exponential probability distributions to model the data for time intervals between eruptions. The mixed exponential distribution is the best match to the data and provides estimates for the conditional probability of a future eruption given the time since the last eruption. The probability of an eruption at Medicine Lake volcano in the next year from today is 0.00028.

National-level long-term eruption forecasts by expert elicitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bebbington, Mark S.; Stirling, Mark W.; Cronin, Shane; Wang, Ting; Jolly, Gill

2018-06-01

Volcanic hazard estimation is becoming increasingly quantitative, creating the potential for land-use decisions and engineering design to use volcanic information in an analogous manner to seismic codes. The initial requirement is to characterize the possible hazard sources, quantifying the likely timing, magnitude and location of the next eruption in each case. This is complicated by the extremely different driving processes at individual volcanoes, and incomplete and uneven records of past activity at various volcanoes. To address these issues, we carried out an expert elicitation approach to estimate future eruption potential for 12 volcanoes of interest in New Zealand. A total of 28 New Zealand experts provided estimates that were combined using Cooke's classical method to arrive at a hazard estimate. In 11 of the 12 cases, the elicited eruption duration increased with VEI, and was correlated with expected repose, differing little between volcanoes. Most of the andesitic volcanoes had very similar elicited distributions for the VEI of a future eruption, except that Taranaki was expected to produce a larger eruption, due to the current long repose. Elicited future vent locations for Tongariro and Okataina reflect strongly the most recent eruptions. In the poorly studied Bay of Islands volcanic field, the estimated vent location distribution was centred on the centroid of the previous vent locations, while in the Auckland field, it was focused on regions within the field without past eruptions. The elicited median dates for the next eruptions ranged from AD2022 (Whakaari/White Island) to AD4390 (Tuhua/Mayor Island).

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Krier, D. J.; Perry, F. V.

Location, timing, volume, and eruptive style of post-Miocene volcanoes have defined the volcanic hazard significant to a proposed high-level radioactive waste (HLW) and spent nuclear fuel (SNF) repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, as a low-probability, high-consequence event. Examination of eruptive centers in the region that may be analogueues to possible future volcanic activity at Yucca Mountain have aided in defining and evaluating the consequence scenarios for intrusion into and eruption above a repository. The probability of a future event intersecting a repository at Yucca Mountain has a mean value of 1.7 x 10{sup -8} per year. This probability comes frommore » the Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Assessment (PVHA) completed in 1996 and updated to reflect change in repository layout. Since that time, magnetic anomalies representing potential buried volcanic centers have been identified fiom magnetic surveys; however these potential buried centers only slightly increase the probability of an event intersecting the repository. The proposed repository will be located in its central portion of Yucca Mountain at approximately 300m depth. The process for assessing performance of a repository at Yucca Mountain has identified two scenarios for igneous activity that, although having a very low probability of occurrence, could have a significant consequence should an igneous event occur. Either a dike swarm intersecting repository drifts containing waste packages, or a volcanic eruption through the repository could result in release of radioactive material to the accessible environment. Ongoing investigations are assessing the mechanisms and significance of the consequence scenarios. Lathrop Wells Cone ({approx}80,000 yrs), a key analogue for estimating potential future volcanic activity, is the youngest surface expression of apparent waning basaltic volcanism in the region. Cone internal structure, lavas, and ash-fall tephra have been examined to estimate eruptive volume, eruption type, and subsurface disturbance accompanying conduit growth and eruption. The Lathrop Wells volcanic complex has a total volume estimate of approximately 0.1 km{sup 3}. The eruptive products indicate a sequence of initial magmatic fissure fountaining, early Strombolian activity, and a brief hydrovolcanic phase, and violent Strombolian phase(s). Lava flows adjacent to the Lathrop Wells Cone probably were emplaced during the mid-eruptive sequence. Ongoing investigations continue to address the potential hazards of a volcanic event at Yucca Mountain.« less

Long-term volcanic hazard assessment on El Hierro (Canary Islands)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Becerril, L.; Bartolini, S.; Sobradelo, R.; Martí, J.; Morales, J. M.; Galindo, I.

2014-07-01

Long-term hazard assessment, one of the bastions of risk-mitigation programs, is required for land-use planning and for developing emergency plans. To ensure quality and representative results, long-term volcanic hazard assessment requires several sequential steps to be completed, which include the compilation of geological and volcanological information, the characterisation of past eruptions, spatial and temporal probabilistic studies, and the simulation of different eruptive scenarios. Despite being a densely populated active volcanic region that receives millions of visitors per year, no systematic hazard assessment has ever been conducted on the Canary Islands. In this paper we focus our attention on El Hierro, the youngest of the Canary Islands and the most recently affected by an eruption. We analyse the past eruptive activity to determine the spatial and temporal probability, and likely style of a future eruption on the island, i.e. the where, when and how. By studying the past eruptive behaviour of the island and assuming that future eruptive patterns will be similar, we aim to identify the most likely volcanic scenarios and corresponding hazards, which include lava flows, pyroclastic fallout and pyroclastic density currents (PDCs). Finally, we estimate their probability of occurrence. The end result, through the combination of the most probable scenarios (lava flows, pyroclastic density currents and ashfall), is the first qualitative integrated volcanic hazard map of the island.

Implications for future activity of Grímsvötn volcano, Iceland, from compositional time series of historical tephra

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carpentier, Marion; Sigmarsson, Olgeir; Larsen, Gudrun

2014-05-01

The nature of future eruptions of active volcanoes is hard to predict. Improved understanding of the past volcanic activity is probably the best way to infer future eruptive scenarios. The most active volcano in Iceland, Grímsvötn, last erupted in 2011 with consequences for habitants living close to the volcano and aviation in the North-Atlantic. In an effort to better understand the magmatic system of the volcano, we have investigated the compositions of 23 selected tephra layers representing the last 8 centuries of volcanic activity at Grímsvötn. The tephra was collected in the ablation area of outlet glaciers from Vatnajökull ice cap. The ice-conserved tephra are less prone to alteration than those exposed in soil sections. Major element analyses are indistinguishable and of quartz-normative tholeiite composition, and Sr and Nd isotope ratios are constant. In contrast, both trace element concentrations (Th range from 0.875 ppm to 1.37 ppm and Ni from 28.5 ppm to 56.6 ppm) in the basalts and Pb isotopes show small but significant variations. The high-precision analyses of Pb isotope ratios allow the identification of tephra samples (3 in total) with more radiogenic ratios than the bulk of the samples. The tephra of constant isotope ratios show linear increase in incompatible element concentrations with time. The rate of increasing concentrations permits exploring possible future scenarios assuming that the magmatic system beneath the volcano follows the established historical evolution. Assuming similar future behaviour of the magma system beneath Grímsvötn volcano, the linear increase in e.g. Th concentration suggests that the volcano is likely to principally produce basalts for the next 500-1000 years. Evolution of water concentration will most likely follow those of incompatible elements with consequent increases in explosiveness of future Grímsvötn eruptions.

Volcanic hazards at Mount Shasta, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Crandell, Dwight R.; Nichols, Donald R.

1989-01-01

The eruptions of Mount St. Helens, Washington, in 1980 served as a reminder that long-dormant volcanoes can come to life again. Those eruptions, and their effects on people and property, also showed the value of having information about volcanic hazards well in advance of possible volcanic activity. This pamphlet about Mount Shasta provides such information for the public, even though the next eruption may still be far in the future.

Digital Data for Volcano Hazards at Newberry Volcano, Oregon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schilling, S.P.; Doelger, S.; Sherrod, D.R.; Mastin, L.G.; Scott, W.E.

2008-01-01

Newberry volcano is a broad shield volcano located in central Oregon, the product of thousands of eruptions, beginning about 600,000 years ago. At least 25 vents on the flanks and summit have been active during the past 10,000 years. The most recent eruption 1,300 years ago produced the Big Obsidian Flow. Thus, the volcano's long history and recent activity indicate that Newberry will erupt in the future. Newberry Crater, a volcanic depression or caldera has been the focus of Newberry's volcanic activity for at least the past 10,000 years. Newberry National Volcanic Monument, which is managed by the U.S. Forest Service, includes the caldera and extends to the Deschutes River. Newberry volcano is quiet. Local earthquake activity (seismicity) has been trifling throughout historic time. Subterranean heat is still present, as indicated by hot springs in the caldera and high temperatures encountered during exploratory drilling for geothermal energy. The report USGS Open-File Report 97-513 (Sherrod and others, 1997) describes the kinds of hazardous geologic events that might occur in the future at Newberry volcano. A hazard-zonation map is included to show the areas that will most likely be affected by renewed eruptions. When Newberry volcano becomes restless, the eruptive scenarios described herein can inform planners, emergency response personnel, and citizens about the kinds and sizes of events to expect. The geographic information system (GIS) volcano hazard data layers used to produce the Newberry volcano hazard map in USGS Open-File Report 97-513 are included in this data set. Scientists at the USGS Cascades Volcano Observatory created a GIS data layer to depict zones subject to the effects of an explosive pyroclastic eruption (tephra fallout, pyroclastic flows, and ballistics), lava flows, volcanic gasses, and lahars/floods in Paulina Creek. A separate GIS data layer depicts drill holes on the flanks of Newberry Volcano that were used to estimate the probability of coverage by future lava flows.

Database for potential hazards from future volcanic eruptions in California

USGS Publications Warehouse

White, Melissa N.; Ramsey, David W.; Miller, C. Dan

2011-01-01

More than 500 volcanic vents have been identified in the State of California. At least 76 of these vents have erupted, some repeatedly, during the past 10,000 yr. Past volcanic activity has ranged in scale and type from small rhyolitic and basaltic eruptions through large catastrophic rhyolitic eruptions. Sooner or later, volcanoes in California will erupt again, and they could have serious impacts on the health and safety of the State's citizens as well as on its economy. This report describes the nature and probable distribution of potentially hazardous volcanic phenomena and their threat to people and property. It includes hazard-zonation maps that show areas relatively likely to be affected by future eruptions in California. This digital release contains information from maps of potential hazards from future volcanic eruptions in the state of California, published as Plate 1 in U.S. Geological Survey Bulletin 1847. The main component of this digital release is a spatial database prepared using geographic information systems (GIS) applications. This release also contains links to files to view or print the map plate, main report text, and accompanying hazard tables from Bulletin 1847. It should be noted that much has been learned about the ages of eruptive events in the State of California since the publication of Bulletin 1847 in 1989. For the most up to date information on the status of California volcanoes, please refer to the U.S. Geological Survey Volcano Hazards Program website.

The eruptive history of the Trous Blancs pit craters, La Réunion Island: The origin of a 24 km long lava flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walther, Georg; Frese, Ingmar; Di Muro, Andrea; Kueppers, Ulrich; Michon, Laurent; Métrich, Nicole

2015-04-01

The assessment of volcanic hazards is strongly based on the past eruptive behaviour of volcanoes and its morphological parameters. Since past eruption characteristics and their frequency provide the best probabilities of such eruptions for the future, understanding the complete eruptive history of a volcano is one of the most powerful tools in assessing the potential hazards or eruptions. At Piton de la Fournaise (PdF) volcano (La Réunion, Indian Ocean), the most frequent style of activity is the effusion of lava flows, which pose the greatest hazard by invasion of inhabited areas and destruction of human property. Here we examined the eruptive history of a previously uninvestigated area, believed to be the origin of a 24 km long lava flow. The eruptions recurrence time of PdF is about one eruption every 9 months in the central caldera. Besides this central activity, eruptive vents have been built along three main rift zones cutting the edifice during the last 50 kyrs. In this study we focused on the largest rift zone of about 15 km width and 20 km length, which extends in a north westerly direction between PdF and the nearby Piton des Neiges volcanic complex. This rift zone is typified by deep seismicity (up to 30 km), emitting mostly primitive magmas, indicative of high fluid pressures (up to 5 kbar) and large volume eruptions. Our area of investigation focused on four consecutively aligned pit craters called the Trous Blancs. These have been identified [1] as the source area of one of the youngest (ca. 6 kyrs) and largest lava field, which extends for 24 km from a height of 1800m asl, passing Le Tampon and Saint Pierre city, until it reaches the coast. To gain insight into the development of this eruption and possible future similar activity, we collected new field data (including stratigraphic logs, a geological map of the area, C-14 dating and geochemical analyses of the eruptive products). Fieldwork revealed that the eruption initiated with intense fountaining activity, producing a m-thick bed of loose black scoria, which becomes densely welded in its upper part. It was followed by an alternation of volume rich lava effusions and strombolian activity and deposition of meter-thick massive units of olivine basalt, alternating with coarse scoria beds in the proximal area. Activity ended with the emplacement of a dm sized bed of glassy, dense scoria and a stratified lithic breccia, marking the pit crater formation. Preliminary dating suggested that this type of eruption could have a millennial recurrence time at PdF. Reoccurring similar activity on the NW rift represents a major source of risk for this now densely populated region (more than 150,000 people living in the affected area). [1] Villeneuve, N., and P. Bachélery (2006),Revue de la typologie des eruptions au Piton de La Fournaise, processus et risqué volcaniques associés, Cybergeo: European Journal of Geography, 330,1-26

The Alaska Volcano Observatory - Expanded Monitoring of Volcanoes Yields Results

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brantley, Steven R.; McGimsey, Robert G.; Neal, Christina A.

2004-01-01

Recent explosive eruptions at some of Alaska's 52 historically active volcanoes have significantly affected air traffic over the North Pacific, as well as Alaska's oil, power, and fishing industries and local communities. Since its founding in the late 1980s, the Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO) has installed new monitoring networks and used satellite data to track activity at Alaska's volcanoes, providing timely warnings and monitoring of frequent eruptions to the aviation industry and the general public. To minimize impacts from future eruptions, scientists at AVO continue to assess volcano hazards and to expand monitoring networks.

Geomorphic Consequences of Volcanic Eruptions in Alaska: A Review

USGS Publications Warehouse

Waythomas, Christopher F.

2015-01-01

Eruptions of Alaska volcanoes have significant and sometimes profound geomorphic consequences on surrounding landscapes and ecosystems. The effects of eruptions on the landscape can range from complete burial of surface vegetation and preexisting topography to subtle, short-term perturbations of geomorphic and ecological systems. In some cases, an eruption will allow for new landscapes to form in response to the accumulation and erosion of recently deposited volcaniclastic material. In other cases, the geomorphic response to a major eruptive event may set in motion a series of landscape changes that could take centuries to millennia to be realized. The effects of volcanic eruptions on the landscape and how these effects influence surface processes has not been a specific focus of most studies concerned with the physical volcanology of Alaska volcanoes. Thus, what is needed is a review of eruptive activity in Alaska in the context of how this activity influences the geomorphology of affected areas. To illustrate the relationship between geomorphology and volcanic activity in Alaska, several eruptions and their geomorphic impacts will be reviewed. These eruptions include the 1912 Novarupta–Katmai eruption, the 1989–1990 and 2009 eruptions of Redoubt volcano, the 2008 eruption of Kasatochi volcano, and the recent historical eruptions of Pavlof volcano. The geomorphic consequences of eruptive activity associated with these eruptions are described, and where possible, information about surface processes, rates of landscape change, and the temporal and spatial scale of impacts are discussed.A common feature of volcanoes in Alaska is their extensive cover of glacier ice, seasonal snow, or both. As a result, the generation of meltwater and a variety of sediment–water mass flows, including debris-flow lahars, hyperconcentrated-flow lahars, and sediment-laden water floods, are typical outcomes of most types of eruptive activity. Occasionally, such flows can be quite large, with flow volumes in the range of 107–109 m3. A review of the lahars generated during the 2009 eruption of Redoubt volcano will illustrate the geomorphic impacts of lahars on stream channels and riparian habitat. Although much work is needed to develop a comprehensive understanding of the geomorphic consequences of volcanic activity in Alaska, this review provides a synthesis of some of the best-studied eruptions and perhaps will serve as a starting point for future work on this topic.

Geomorphic consequences of volcanic eruptions in Alaska: A review

USGS Publications Warehouse

Waythomas, Christopher F.

2015-01-01

Eruptions of Alaska volcanoes have significant and sometimes profound geomorphic consequences on surrounding landscapes and ecosystems. The effects of eruptions on the landscape can range from complete burial of surface vegetation and preexisting topography to subtle, short-term perturbations of geomorphic and ecological systems. In some cases, an eruption will allow for new landscapes to form in response to the accumulation and erosion of recently deposited volcaniclastic material. In other cases, the geomorphic response to a major eruptive event may set in motion a series of landscape changes that could take centuries to millennia to be realized. The effects of volcanic eruptions on the landscape and how these effects influence surface processes has not been a specific focus of most studies concerned with the physical volcanology of Alaska volcanoes. Thus, what is needed is a review of eruptive activity in Alaska in the context of how this activity influences the geomorphology of affected areas. To illustrate the relationship between geomorphology and volcanic activity in Alaska, several eruptions and their geomorphic impacts will be reviewed. These eruptions include the 1912 Novarupta–Katmai eruption, the 1989–1990 and 2009 eruptions of Redoubt volcano, the 2008 eruption of Kasatochi volcano, and the recent historical eruptions of Pavlof volcano. The geomorphic consequences of eruptive activity associated with these eruptions are described, and where possible, information about surface processes, rates of landscape change, and the temporal and spatial scale of impacts are discussed.A common feature of volcanoes in Alaska is their extensive cover of glacier ice, seasonal snow, or both. As a result, the generation of meltwater and a variety of sediment–water mass flows, including debris-flow lahars, hyperconcentrated-flow lahars, and sediment-laden water floods, are typical outcomes of most types of eruptive activity. Occasionally, such flows can be quite large, with flow volumes in the range of 107–109 m3. A review of the lahars generated during the 2009 eruption of Redoubt volcano will illustrate the geomorphic impacts of lahars on stream channels and riparian habitat. Although much work is needed to develop a comprehensive understanding of the geomorphic consequences of volcanic activity in Alaska, this review provides a synthesis of some of the best-studied eruptions and perhaps will serve as a starting point for future work on this topic.

Preliminary volcano-hazard assessment for Augustine Volcano, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Waythomas, Christopher F.; Waitt, Richard B.

1998-01-01

Augustine Volcano is a 1250-meter high stratovolcano in southwestern Cook Inlet about 280 kilometers southwest of Anchorage and within about 300 kilometers of more than half of the population of Alaska. Explosive eruptions have occurred six times since the early 1800s (1812, 1883, 1935, 1964-65, 1976, and 1986). The 1976 and 1986 eruptions began with an initial series of vent-clearing explosions and high vertical plumes of volcanic ash followed by pyroclastic flows, surges, and lahars on the volcano flanks. Unlike some prehistoric eruptions, a summit edifice collapse and debris avalanche did not occur in 1812, 1935, 1964-65, 1976, or 1986. However, early in the 1883 eruption, a portion of the volcano summit broke loose forming a debris avalanche that flowed to the sea. The avalanche initiated a small tsunami reported on the Kenai Peninsula at English Bay, 90 kilometers east of the volcano. Plumes of volcanic ash are a major hazard to jet aircraft using Anchorage International and other local airports. Ashfall from future eruptions could disrupt oil and gas operations and shipping activities in Cook Inlet. Eruptions similar to the historical and prehistoric eruptions are likely in Augustine's future.

Volcano hazards at Newberry Volcano, Oregon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sherrod, David R.; Mastin, Larry G.; Scott, William E.; Schilling, Steven P.

1997-01-01

Newberry volcano is a broad shield volcano located in central Oregon. It has been built by thousands of eruptions, beginning about 600,000 years ago. At least 25 vents on the flanks and summit have been active during several eruptive episodes of the past 10,000 years. The most recent eruption 1,300 years ago produced the Big Obsidian Flow. Thus, the volcano's long history and recent activity indicate that Newberry will erupt in the future. The most-visited part of the volcano is Newberry Crater, a volcanic depression or caldera at the summit of the volcano. Seven campgrounds, two resorts, six summer homes, and two major lakes (East and Paulina Lakes) are nestled in the caldera. The caldera has been the focus of Newberry's volcanic activity for at least the past 10,000 years. Other eruptions during this time have occurred along a rift zone on the volcano's northwest flank and, to a lesser extent, the south flank. Many striking volcanic features lie in Newberry National Volcanic Monument, which is managed by the U.S. Forest Service. The monument includes the caldera and extends along the northwest rift zone to the Deschutes River. About 30 percent of the area within the monument is covered by volcanic products erupted during the past 10,000 years from Newberry volcano. Newberry volcano is presently quiet. Local earthquake activity (seismicity) has been trifling throughout historic time. Subterranean heat is still present, as indicated by hot springs in the caldera and high temperatures encountered during exploratory drilling for geothermal energy. This report describes the kinds of hazardous geologic events that might occur in the future at Newberry volcano. A hazard-zonation map is included to show the areas that will most likely be affected by renewed eruptions. In terms of our own lifetimes, volcanic events at Newberry are not of day-to-day concern because they occur so infrequently; however, the consequences of some types of eruptions can be severe. When Newberry volcano becomes restless, be it tomorrow or many years from now, the eruptive scenarios described herein can inform planners, emergency response personnel, and citizens about the kinds and sizes of events to expect.

Recent eruptive history of Mount Hood, Oregon, and potential hazards from future eruptions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Crandell, Dwight Raymond

1980-01-01

Each of three major eruptive periods at Mount Hood (12,000-15,000(?), 1,500-1,800, and 200-300 years ago) produced dacite domes, pyroclastic flows, and mudflows, but virtually no pumice. Most of the fine lithic ash that mantles the slopes of the volcano and the adjacent mountains fell from ash clouds that accompanied the pyroclastic flows. Widely scattered pumice lapilli that are present at the ground surface on the south, east, and north sides of Mount Hood may have been erupted during the mid-1800's, when the last known activity of the volcano occurred. The geologically recent history of Mount Hood suggests that the most likely eruptive event in the future will be the formation of another dome, probably within the present south-facing crater. The principal hazards that could accompany dome formation include pyroclastic flows and mudflows moving from the upper slopes of the volcano down the floors of valleys. Ash clouds which accompany pyroclastic flows may deposit as much as a meter of fine ash close to their source, and as much as 20 centimeters at a distance of 11 kilometers downwind from the pyroclastic flows. Other hazards that could result from such eruptions include laterally directed explosive blasts that could propel rock fragments outward from the sides of a dome at high speed, and toxic volcanic gases. The scarcity of pumiceous ash erupted during the last 15,000 years suggests that explosive pumice eruptions are not a major hazard at Mount Hood; thus, there seems to be little danger that such an eruption will significantly affect the Portland (Oregon) metropolitan area in the near future.

Assessing qualitative long-term volcanic hazards at Lanzarote Island (Canary Islands)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Becerril, Laura; Martí, Joan; Bartolini, Stefania; Geyer, Adelina

2017-07-01

Conducting long-term hazard assessment in active volcanic areas is of primary importance for land-use planning and defining emergency plans able to be applied in case of a crisis. A definition of scenario hazard maps helps to mitigate the consequences of future eruptions by anticipating the events that may occur. Lanzarote is an active volcanic island that has hosted the largest (> 1.5 km3 DRE) and longest (6 years) eruption, the Timanfaya eruption (1730-1736), on the Canary Islands in historical times (last 600 years). This eruption brought severe economic losses and forced local people to migrate. In spite of all these facts, no comprehensive hazard assessment or hazard maps have been developed for the island. In this work, we present an integrated long-term volcanic hazard evaluation using a systematic methodology that includes spatial analysis and simulations of the most probable eruptive scenarios.

Estimating eruption temperature from thermal emission spectra of lava fountain activity in the Erta'Ale (Ethiopia) volcano lava lake: Implications for observing Io's volcanoes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Davies, Ashley G.; Keszthelyi, Laszlo P.; McEwen, Alfred S.

2011-01-01

We have analysed high-spatial-resolution and high-temporal-resolution temperature measurements of the active lava lake at Erta'Ale volcano, Ethiopia, to derive requirements for measuring eruption temperatures at Io's volcanoes. Lava lakes are particularly attractive targets because they are persistent in activity and large, often with ongoing lava fountain activity that exposes lava at near-eruption temperature. Using infrared thermography, we find that extracting useful temperature estimates from remote-sensing data requires (a) high spatial resolution to isolate lava fountains from adjacent cooler lava and (b) rapid acquisition of multi-color data. Because existing spacecraft data of Io's volcanoes do not meet these criteria, it is particularly important to design future instruments so that they will be able to collect such data. Near-simultaneous data at more than two relatively short wavelengths (shorter than 1 μm) are needed to constrain eruption temperatures. Resolving parts of the lava lake or fountains that are near the eruption temperature is also essential, and we provide a rough estimate of the required image scale.

Identifying the locations of future eruptions within large calderas: Campi Flegrei, Southern Italy.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Charlton, Danielle; Kilburn, Christopher; Sobradelo, Rosa; Edwards, Stephen

2016-04-01

Large calderas, with surface areas of 100 km2 or more, are among the most populated active volcanoes on Earth. New vents commonly open at locations across the caldera floor. An important goal for hazard mitigation, therefore, is to develop reliable methods for evaluating the most likely location for a future eruption. A preferred approach is to analyse statistically the distributions of previous vents. Using the Campi Flegrei caldera as a test case, we here examine the sensitivity of results to starting assumptions, notably the choice of data set for defining preferred vent locations. Situated immediately west of Naples, in southern Italy, Campi Flegrei poses a direct threat to more than 300,000 people. It has been in episodic unrest since the late 1950s. The unrest is the first since the last eruption in Campi Flegrei in 1538 and suggests that the caldera may have re-entered a state with an increased probability of an eruption. Since the most recent episode of caldera collapse 15.5 ka BP, at least 60 intra-caldera eruptions have occurred across the 150 km2 that make up the modern onshore area of Campi Flegrei. The eruptions have been concentrated within three epochs: 15.5-9.5 ka BP (Epoch 1, c. 27 eruptions), 8.6-8.2 ka BP (Epoch 2; c. 6 eruptions) and 4.8-3.8 ka BP (Epoch 3; c. 27 eruptions). Recent statistical studies of future vent locations have assumed that (1) only data from Epoch 3 are relevant to modern Campi Flegrei, and (2) repeated eruptions from the same vent can be incorporated, whether they are independent events or belong to a connected sequence of activity. We have relaxed these assumptions to investigate data from all epochs and to distinguish between independent and related eruptions from the same vent. Quadrat and nearest-neighbour statistics show that eruptions from Epochs 1 and 2 were distributed within an annulus 3-5 km around modern Pozzuoli, but that, in agreement with previous studies, eruptions occurred preferentially NE-ENE of Pozzuoli in Epoch 3. However, when related sequences of eruptions from the same vent are removed, the data show an even, annular distribution for all three epochs. The results suggest that, instead of a preference for the NE-ENE sector of Campi Flegrei, a new vent is expected to open within the established annular structure around Pozzuoli; that the probability of opening is similar in all locations within the annulus; and that, compared with Epochs 1 and 2, Epoch 3 was distinguished by a greater number of multiple eruptions from individual vents.

Mount St. Helens a decade after the 1980 eruptions: magmatic models, chemical cycles, and a revised hazards assessment

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pallister, J.S.; Hoblitt, R.P.; Crandell, D.R.; Mullineaux, D.R.

1992-01-01

Available geophysical and geologic data provide a simplified model of the current magmatic plumbing system of Mount St. Helens (MSH). This model and new geochemical data are the basis for the revised hazards assessment presented here. The assessment is weighted by the style of eruptions and the chemistry of magmas erupted during the past 500 years, the interval for which the most detailed stratigraphic and geochemical data are available. This interval includes the Kalama (A. D. 1480-1770s?), Goat Rocks (A.D. 1800-1857), and current eruptive periods. In each of these periods, silica content decreased, then increased. The Kalama is a large amplitude chemical cycle (SiO2: 57%-67%), produced by mixing of arc dacite, which is depleted in high field-strength and incompatible elements, with enriched (OIB-like) basalt. The Goat Rocks and current cycles are of small amplitude (SiO2: 61%-64% and 62%-65%) and are related to the fluid dynamics of magma withdrawal from a zoned reservoir. The cyclic behavior is used to forecast future activity. The 1980-1986 chemical cycle, and consequently the current eruptive period, appears to be virtually complete. This inference is supported by the progressively decreasing volumes and volatile contents of magma erupted since 1980, both changes that suggest a decreasing potential for a major explosive eruption in the near future. However, recent changes in seismicity and a series of small gas-release explosions (beginning in late 1989 and accompanied by eruption of a minor fraction of relatively low-silica tephra on 6 January and 5 November 1990) suggest that the current eruptive period may continue to produce small explosions and that a small amount of magma may still be present within the conduit. The gas-release explosions occur without warning and pose a continuing hazard, especially in the crater area. An eruption as large or larger than that of 18 May 1980 (???0.5 km3 dense-rock equivalent) probably will occur only if magma rises from an inferred deep (???7 km), relative large (5-7 km3) reservoir. A conservative approach to hazard assessment is to assume that this deep magma is rich in volatiles and capable of erupting explosively to produce voluminous fall deposits and pyroclastic flows. Warning of such an eruption is expectable, however, because magma ascent would probably be accompanied by shallow seismicity that could be detected by the existing seismic-monitoring system. A future large-volume eruption (???0.1 km3) is virtually certain; the eruptive history of the past 500 years indicates the probability of a large explosive eruption is at least 1% annually. Intervals between large eruptions at Mount St. Helens have varied widely; consequently, we cannot confidently forecast whether the next large eruption will be years decades, or farther in the future. However, we can forecast the types of hazards, and the areas that will be most affected by future large-volume eruptions, as well as hazards associated with the approaching end of the current eruptive period. ?? 1992 Springer-Verlag.

Monogenetic Volcano Clusters within the wider Michoacán-Guanajuato Volcanic Field (México) and their Significance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siebe, C.

2017-12-01

The Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt, one of the most complex and active continental arcs worldwide, displays several volcanic fields dominated by monogenetic volcanoes. Of these, the Plio-Quaternary Michoacán-Guanajuato Volcanic Field (MGVF) situated in central Mexico, is the largest monogenetic volcanic field in the world and includes more than 1000 scoria cones and associated lava flows and about 400 medium-sized volcanoes (Mexican shields). The smaller monogenetic vents occur either isolated or form small clusters within the wider MGVF. The recent identification of small clusters comprising several monogenetic volcanoes that erupted in a sequence of geologically short time intervals (hundreds to few thousands of years) in small areas within the much wider MGVF opens several questions in regard to future volcanic hazard assessments in this region: Are the youngest (Holocene) clusters still "active" and is a new eruption likely to occur within their surroundings? How long are such clusters "active"? Will the next monogenetic eruption in the MGVF be a single short-lived isolated eruption, or the beginning of a cluster? Furthermore, is it possible that the historic eruptions of Jorullo (1759) and Paricutin (1943) represent each the beginning of a cluster and should a new eruption in their proximity be expected in the future? In order to address these questions, two Holocene clusters, namely Tacámbaro and Malpaís de Zacapu are currently under study and preliminary results will be presented. Each comprises four monogenetic vents that erupted in a sequence of geologically short time intervals (hundreds to few thousands of years) within a small area (few tens of km2) Geologic mapping, geochemical analyses, radiometric dating, and paleomagnetic studies will help to establish the sequence of eruption of the different vents, and shed more light on the conditions that allow several magma sources to be formed and then tapped in close temporal and spatial proximity to each other and produce such small "flare-ups".

Long-term Acoustic Real-Time Sensor for Polar Areas (LARA)

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-09-30

Volcano and the Middle Valley Ridge segment in the northeast Pacific Ocean. Both areas have seafloor volcanic eruptions forecast for the near future...Sensor for Polar Areas (LARA) for real-time monitoring of marine mammals, ambient noise levels, seismic activities (e.g., eruption of undersea volcanoes...LARA technology will be useful for real-time monitoring of deep-ocean seismic and volcanic activity (e.g., Dziak et al., 2011) - especially in areas

Ozone depletion following future volcanic eruptions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eric Klobas, J.; Wilmouth, David M.; Weisenstein, Debra K.; Anderson, James G.; Salawitch, Ross J.

2017-07-01

While explosive volcanic eruptions cause ozone loss in the current atmosphere due to an enhancement in the availability of reactive chlorine following the stratospheric injection of sulfur, future eruptions are expected to increase total column ozone as halogen loading approaches preindustrial levels. The timing of this shift in the impact of major volcanic eruptions on the thickness of the ozone layer is poorly known. Modeling four possible climate futures, we show that scenarios with the smallest increase in greenhouse gas concentrations lead to the greatest risk to ozone from heterogeneous chemical processing following future eruptions. We also show that the presence in the stratosphere of bromine from natural, very short-lived biogenic compounds is critically important for determining whether future eruptions will lead to ozone depletion. If volcanic eruptions inject hydrogen halides into the stratosphere, an effect not considered in current ozone assessments, potentially profound reductions in column ozone would result.

Temperature and Structure of Active Eruptions from a Handheld Camcorder

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Radebaugh, Jani; Carling, Greg T.; Saito, Takeshi; Dangerfield, Anne; Tingey, David G.; Lorenz, Ralph D.; Lopes, Rosaly M.; Howell, Robert R.; Diniega, Serina; Turtle, Elizabeth P.

2014-11-01

A commercial handheld digital camcorder can operate as a high-resolution, short-wavelength, low-cost thermal imaging system for monitoring active volcanoes, when calibrated against a laboratory heated rock of similar composition to the given eruptive material. We utilize this system to find full pixel brightness temperatures on centimeter scales at close but safe proximity to active lava flows. With it, observed temperatures of a Kilauea tube flow exposed in a skylight reached 1200 C, compared with pyrometer measurements of the same flow of 1165 C, both similar to reported eruption temperatures at that volcano. The lava lake at Erta Ale, Ethiopia had crack and fountain temperatures of 1175 C compared with previous pyrometer measurements of 1165 C. Temperature calibration of the vigorously active Marum lava lake in Vanuatu is underway, challenges being excessive levels of gas and distance from the eruption (300 m). Other aspects of the fine-scale structure of the eruptions are visible in the high-resolution temperature maps, such as flow banding within tubes, the thermal gradient away from cracks in lake surfaces, heat pathways through pahoehoe crust and temperature zoning in spatter and fountains. High-resolution measurements such as these reveal details of temperature, structure, and change over time at the rapidly evolving settings of active lava flows. These measurement capabilities are desirable for future instruments exploring bodies with active eruptions like Io, Enceladus and possibly Venus.

Three active volcanoes in China and their hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, H.; Sparks, R. S. J.; Liu, R.; Fan, Q.; Wang, Y.; Hong, H.; Zhang, H.; Chen, H.; Jiang, C.; Dong, J.; Zheng, Y.; Pan, Y.

2003-02-01

The active volcanoes in China are located in the Changbaishan area, Jingbo Lake, Wudalianchi, Tengchong and Yutian. Several of these volcanoes have historical records of eruption and geochronological evidence of Holocene activity. Tianchi Volcano is a well-preserved Cenozoic polygenetic central volcano, and, due to its recent history of powerful explosive eruptions of felsic magmas, with over 100,000 people living on its flanks is a high-risk volcano. Explosive eruptions at 4000 and 1000 years BP involved plinian and ignimbrite phases. The Millennium eruption (1000 years BP) involved at least 20-30 km 3 of magma and was large enough to have a global impact. There are 14 Cenozoic monogenetic scoria cones and associated lavas with high-K basalt composition in the Wudalianchi volcanic field. The Laoheishan and Huoshaoshan cones and related lavas were formed in 1720-1721 and 1776 AD. There are three Holocene volcanoes, Dayingshan, Maanshan, and Heikongshan, among the 68 Quaternary volcanoes in the Tengchong volcanic province. Three of these volcanoes are identified as active, based on geothermal activity, geophysical evidence for magma, and dating of young volcanic rocks. Future eruptions of these Chinese volcanoes pose a significant threat to hundreds of thousands of people and are likely to cause substantial economic losses.

Volcano hazards assessment for the Lassen region, northern California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Clynne, Michael A.; Robinson, Joel E.; Nathenson, Manuel; Muffler, L.J. Patrick

2012-01-01

The Lassen region of the southernmost Cascade Range is an active volcanic area. At least 70 eruptions have occurred in the past 100,000 years, including 3 in the past 1,000 years, most recently in 1915. The record of past eruptions and the present state of the underlying magmatic and hydrothermal systems make it clear that future eruptions within the Lassen Volcanic Center are very likely. Although the annual probability of an eruption is small, the consequences of some types of eruptions could be severe. Compared to those of a typical Cascade composite volcano, eruptive vents at Lassen Volcanic Center and the surrounding area are widely dispersed, extending in a zone about 50 km wide from the southern boundary of Lassen Volcanic National Park north to the Pit River. This report presents a discussion of volcanic and other geologic hazards in the Lassen area and delineates hazards zones for different types of volcanic activity. Owing to its presence in a national park with significant visitorship, its explosive behavior, and its proximity to regional infrastructure, the Lassen Volcanic Center has been designated a "high threat volcano" in the U.S. Geological Survey National Volcano Early Warning System assessment. Volcanic eruptions are typically preceded by seismic activity and ground deformation, and the Lassen area has a network of seismometers and Global Positioning System stations in place to monitor for early warning of volcanic activity.

Assessing the likelihood of volcanic eruption through analysis of volcanotectonic earthquake fault plane solutions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roman, D. C.; Neuberg, J.; Luckett, R. R.

2006-08-01

Episodes of volcanic unrest do not always lead to an eruption. Many of the commonly monitored signals of volcanic unrest, including surface deformation and increased degassing, can reflect perturbations to a deeper magma storage system, and may persist for years without accompanying eruptive activity. Signals of volcanic unrest can also persist following the end of an eruption. Furthermore, the most reliable eruption precursor, the occurrence of low-frequency seismicity, appears to reflect very shallow processes and typically precedes eruptions by only hours to days. Thus, the identification of measurable and unambiguous indicators that are sensitive to changes in the mid-level conduit system during an intermediate stage of magma ascent is of critical importance to the field of volcano monitoring. Here, using data from the ongoing eruption of the Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat, we show that ˜90° changes in the orientation of double-couple fault-plane solutions for high-frequency 'volcanotectonic' (VT) earthquakes reflect pressurization of the mid-level conduit system prior to eruption and may precede the onset of eruptive episodes by weeks to months. Our results demonstrate that, once the characteristic stress field response to magma ascent at a given volcano is established, a relatively simple analysis of VT fault-plane solutions may be used to make intermediate-term assessments of the likelihood of future eruptive activity.

Asia-Pacific Region Global Earthquake and Volcanic Eruption Risk Management (G-EVER) project and a next-generation real-time volcano hazard assessment system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takarada, S.

2012-12-01

The first Workshop of Asia-Pacific Region Global Earthquake and Volcanic Eruption Risk Management (G-EVER1) was held in Tsukuba, Ibaraki Prefecture, Japan from February 23 to 24, 2012. The workshop focused on the formulation of strategies to reduce the risks of disasters worldwide caused by the occurrence of earthquakes, tsunamis, and volcanic eruptions. More than 150 participants attended the workshop. During the workshop, the G-EVER1 accord was approved by the participants. The Accord consists of 10 recommendations like enhancing collaboration, sharing of resources, and making information about the risks of earthquakes and volcanic eruptions freely available and understandable. The G-EVER Hub website (http://g-ever.org) was established to promote the exchange of information and knowledge among the Asia-Pacific countries. Several G-EVER Working Groups and Task Forces were proposed. One of the working groups was tasked to make the next-generation real-time volcano hazard assessment system. The next-generation volcano hazard assessment system is useful for volcanic eruption prediction, risk assessment, and evacuation at various eruption stages. The assessment system is planned to be developed based on volcanic eruption scenario datasets, volcanic eruption database, and numerical simulations. Defining volcanic eruption scenarios based on precursor phenomena leading up to major eruptions of active volcanoes is quite important for the future prediction of volcanic eruptions. Compiling volcanic eruption scenarios after a major eruption is also important. A high quality volcanic eruption database, which contains compilations of eruption dates, volumes, and styles, is important for the next-generation volcano hazard assessment system. The volcanic eruption database is developed based on past eruption results, which only represent a subset of possible future scenarios. Hence, different distributions from the previous deposits are mainly observed due to the differences in vent position, volume, eruption rate, wind directions and topography. Therefore, numerical simulations with controlled parameters are needed for more precise volcanic eruption predictions. The use of the next-generation system should enable the visualization of past volcanic eruptions datasets such as distributions, eruption volumes and eruption rates, on maps and diagrams using timeline and GIS technology. Similar volcanic eruptions scenarios should be easily searchable from the eruption database. Using the volcano hazard assessment system, prediction of the time and area that would be affected by volcanic eruptions at any locations near the volcano should be possible, using numerical simulations. The system should estimate volcanic hazard risks by overlaying the distributions of volcanic deposits on major roads, houses and evacuation areas using a GIS enabled systems. Probabilistic volcanic hazards maps in active volcano sites should be made based on numerous numerical simulations. The next-generation real-time hazard assessment system would be implemented with user-friendly interface, making the risk assessment system easily usable and accessible online.

Estimating eruption temperature from thermal emission spectra of lava fountain activity in the Erta'Ale (Ethiopia) volcano lava lake: Implications for observing Io's volcanoes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Davies, A.G.; Keszthelyi, L.; McEwen, A.S.

2011-01-01

We have analysed high-spatial-resolution and high-temporal-resolution temperature measurements of the active lava lake at Erta'Ale volcano, Ethiopia, to derive requirements for measuring eruption temperatures at Io's volcanoes. Lava lakes are particularly attractive targets because they are persistent in activity and large, often with ongoing lava fountain activity that exposes lava at near-eruption temperature. Using infrared thermography, we find that extracting useful temperature estimates from remote-sensing data requires (a) high spatial resolution to isolate lava fountains from adjacent cooler lava and (b) rapid acquisition of multi-color data. Because existing spacecraft data of Io's volcanoes do not meet these criteria, it is particularly important to design future instruments so that they will be able to collect such data. Near-simultaneous data at more than two relatively short wavelengths (shorter than 1 ??m) are needed to constrain eruption temperatures. Resolving parts of the lava lake or fountains that are near the eruption temperature is also essential, and we provide a rough estimate of the required image scale. ?? 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.

Reduced cooling following future volcanic eruptions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hopcroft, Peter O.; Kandlbauer, Jessy; Valdes, Paul J.; Sparks, R. Stephen J.

2017-11-01

Volcanic eruptions are an important influence on decadal to centennial climate variability. Large eruptions lead to the formation of a stratospheric sulphate aerosol layer which can cause short-term global cooling. This response is modulated by feedback processes in the earth system, but the influence from future warming has not been assessed before. Using earth system model simulations we find that the eruption-induced cooling is significantly weaker in the future state. This is predominantly due to an increase in planetary albedo caused by increased tropospheric aerosol loading with a contribution from associated changes in cloud properties. The increased albedo of the troposphere reduces the effective volcanic aerosol radiative forcing. Reduced sea-ice coverage and hence feedbacks also contribute over high-latitudes, and an enhanced winter warming signal emerges in the future eruption ensemble. These findings show that the eruption response is a complex function of the environmental conditions, which has implications for the role of eruptions in climate variability in the future and potentially in the past.

A Conceptual Model of Future Volcanism at Medicine Lake Volcano, California - With an Emphasis on Understanding Local Volcanic Hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Molisee, D. D.; Germa, A.; Charbonnier, S. J.; Connor, C.

2017-12-01

Medicine Lake Volcano (MLV) is most voluminous of all the Cascade Volcanoes ( 600 km3), and has the highest eruption frequency after Mount St. Helens. Detailed mapping by USGS colleagues has shown that during the last 500,000 years MLV erupted >200 lava flows ranging from basalt to rhyolite, produced at least one ash-flow tuff, one caldera forming event, and at least 17 scoria cones. Underlying these units are 23 additional volcanic units that are considered to be pre-MLV in age. Despite the very high likelihood of future eruptions, fewer than 60 of 250 mapped volcanic units (MLV and pre-MLV) have been dated reliably. A robust set of eruptive ages is key to understanding the history of the MLV system and to forecasting the future behavior of the volcano. The goals of this study are to 1) obtain additional radiometric ages from stratigraphically strategic units; 2) recalculate recurrence rate of eruptions based on an augmented set of radiometric dates; and 3) use lava flow, PDC, ash fall-out, and lahar computational simulation models to assess the potential effects of discrete volcanic hazards locally and regionally. We identify undated target units (units in key stratigraphic positions to provide maximum chronological insight) and obtain field samples for radiometric dating (40Ar/39Ar and K/Ar) and petrology. Stratigraphic and radiometric data are then used together in the Volcano Event Age Model (VEAM) to identify changes in the rate and type of volcanic eruptions through time, with statistical uncertainty. These newly obtained datasets will be added to published data to build a conceptual model of volcanic hazards at MLV. Alternative conceptual models, for example, may be that the rate of MLV lava flow eruptions are nonstationary in time and/or space and/or volume. We explore the consequences of these alternative models on forecasting future eruptions. As different styles of activity have different impacts, we estimate these potential effects using simulation. The results of this study will improve the existing MLV hazard assessment in hopes of mitigating casualties and social impact should an eruption occur at MLV.

Volcanic hazards at Atitlan volcano, Guatemala

USGS Publications Warehouse

Haapala, J.M.; Escobar Wolf, R.; Vallance, James W.; Rose, William I.; Griswold, J.P.; Schilling, S.P.; Ewert, J.W.; Mota, M.

2006-01-01

Atitlan Volcano is in the Guatemalan Highlands, along a west-northwest trending chain of volcanoes parallel to the mid-American trench. The volcano perches on the southern rim of the Atitlan caldera, which contains Lake Atitlan. Since the major caldera-forming eruption 85 thousand years ago (ka), three stratovolcanoes--San Pedro, Toliman, and Atitlan--have formed in and around the caldera. Atitlan is the youngest and most active of the three volcanoes. Atitlan Volcano is a composite volcano, with a steep-sided, symmetrical cone comprising alternating layers of lava flows, volcanic ash, cinders, blocks, and bombs. Eruptions of Atitlan began more than 10 ka [1] and, since the arrival of the Spanish in the mid-1400's, eruptions have occurred in six eruptive clusters (1469, 1505, 1579, 1663, 1717, 1826-1856). Owing to its distance from population centers and the limited written record from 200 to 500 years ago, only an incomplete sample of the volcano's behavior is documented prior to the 1800's. The geologic record provides a more complete sample of the volcano's behavior since the 19th century. Geologic and historical data suggest that the intensity and pattern of activity at Atitlan Volcano is similar to that of Fuego Volcano, 44 km to the east, where active eruptions have been observed throughout the historical period. Because of Atitlan's moderately explosive nature and frequency of eruptions, there is a need for local and regional hazard planning and mitigation efforts. Tourism has flourished in the area; economic pressure has pushed agricultural activity higher up the slopes of Atitlan and closer to the source of possible future volcanic activity. This report summarizes the hazards posed by Atitlan Volcano in the event of renewed activity but does not imply that an eruption is imminent. However, the recognition of potential activity will facilitate hazard and emergency preparedness.

U.S. Geological Survey's Alert Notification System for Volcanic Activity

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gardner, Cynthia A.; Guffanti, Marianne C.

2006-01-01

The United States and its territories have about 170 volcanoes that have been active during the past 10,000 years, and most could erupt again in the future. In the past 500 years, 80 U.S. volcanoes have erupted one or more times. About 50 of these recently active volcanoes are monitored, although not all to the same degree. Through its five volcano observatories, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) issues information and warnings to the public about volcanic activity. For clarity of warnings during volcanic crises, the USGS has now standardized the alert-notification system used at its observatories.

Very-low-frequency resistivity, self-potential and ground temperature surveys on Taal volcano (Philippines): Implications for future activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zlotnicki, J.; Vargemezis, G.; Johnston, M. J. S.; Sasai, Y.; Reniva, P.; Alanis, P.

2017-06-01

Taal volcano is one of the most dangerous volcanoes in the Philippines. Thirty-three eruptions have occurred through historical time with several exhibiting cataclysmic phases. Most recent eruptions are confined to Volcano Island located within the prehistoric Taal collapse caldera that is now filled by Taal Lake. The last eruptive activity from 1965 to 1977 took place from Mt. Tabaro, about 2 km to the southwest of the Main Crater center. Since this time, episodes of seismic activity, ground deformation, gas release, surface fissuring, fumarole activity and temperature changes are recorded periodically around the main crater, but no major eruption has occurred. This period of quiescence is the third longest period without eruptive activity since 1572. In March 2010, a campaign based on Very-Low-Frequency (VLF) resistivity surveys together with repeated surveys of self-potential, ground temperature and fissure activity was intensified and the results compared to a large-scale Electrical Resistivity Tomography experiment. This work fortunately occurred before, within and after a new seismovolcanic crisis from late April 2010 to March 2011. The joint analysis of these new data, together with results from previous magnetotelluric soundings, allows a better description of the electrical resistivity and crustal structure beneath the Main Crater down to a depth of several kilometers. No indication of growth of the two geothermal areas located on both sides of the northern crater rim was apparent from 2005 to March 2010. These areas appear controlled by active fissures, opened during the 1992 and 1994 crises, that dip downward towards the core of the hydrothermal system located at about 2.5 km depth beneath the crater. Older mineralized fissures at lower elevations to the North of the geothermal areas also dip downward under the crater. Repeated self-potential and ground temperature surveys completed between 2005 and 2015 show new geothermal and hydrothermal activity in the areas of these older mineralized fissures that occurred during the April 2010 to March 2011 seismovolcanic crisis. This dramatically extends the geothermal activity further to the North on the volcano. The occurrence of these newly activated fissures after a long period of quiescence and indications of inflation in mid-2010 under the North rim of the Main Crater suggests that new eruptive activity near the North rim of the crater could occur in the future.

WOVOdat as a worldwide resource to improve eruption forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Widiwijayanti, Christina; Costa, Fidel; Zar Win Nang, Thin; Tan, Karine; Newhall, Chris; Ratdomopurbo, Antonius

2015-04-01

During periods of volcanic unrest, volcanologists need to interpret signs of unrest to be able to forecast whether an eruption is likely to occur. Some volcanic eruptions display signs of impending eruption such as seismic activity, surface deformation, or gas emissions; but not all will give signs and not all signs are necessarily followed by an eruption. Volcanoes behave differently. Precursory signs of an eruption are sometimes very short, less than an hour, but can be also weeks, months, or even years. Some volcanoes are regularly active and closely monitored, while other aren't. Often, the record of precursors to historical eruptions of a volcano isn't enough to allow a forecast of its future activity. Therefore, volcanologists must refer to monitoring data of unrest and eruptions at similar volcanoes. WOVOdat is the World Organization of Volcano Observatories' Database of volcanic unrest - an international effort to develop common standards for compiling and storing data on volcanic unrests in a centralized database and freely web-accessible for reference during volcanic crises, comparative studies, and basic research on pre-eruption processes. WOVOdat will be to volcanology as an epidemiological database is to medicine. We have up to now incorporated about 15% of worldwide unrest data into WOVOdat, covering more than 100 eruption episodes, which includes: volcanic background data, eruptive histories, monitoring data (seismic, deformation, gas, hydrology, thermal, fields, and meteorology), monitoring metadata, and supporting data such as reports, images, maps and videos. Nearly all data in WOVOdat are time-stamped and geo-referenced. Along with creating a database on volcanic unrest, WOVOdat also developing web-tools to help users to query, visualize, and compare data, which further can be used for probabilistic eruption forecasting. Reference to WOVOdat will be especially helpful at volcanoes that have not erupted in historical or 'instrumental' time and thus for which no previous data exist. The more data in WOVOdat, the more useful it will be. We actively solicit relevant data contributions from volcano observatories, other institutions, and individual researchers. Detailed information and documentation about the database and how to use it can be found at www.wovodat.org.

Impact of Future Volcanic Eruptions on Stratospheric Ozone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilmouth, D. M.; Klobas, J. E.; Weisenstein, D.; Anderson, J. G.; Salawitch, R. J.

2017-12-01

Due to the anthropogenic release of chlorine-containing chemicals such as chlorofluorocarbons into the atmosphere in the twentieth century, a large volcanic eruption occurring today would initiate chemical reactions that reduce the thickness of the ozone layer. In the future, when atmospheric levels of chlorine are reduced, large volcanic eruptions are instead expected to increase the thickness of the ozone layer, but important details relevant to this shift in volcanic impact are not well known. Here we use the AER-2D chemical transport model to simulate a Pinatubo-like volcanic eruption in contemporary and future atmospheres. In particular, we explore the sensitivity of column ozone to volcanic eruption for four different climate change scenarios over the remainder of this century and also establish the importance of bromine-containing very short-lived substances (VSLS) in determining whether future eruptions will lead to ozone depletion. We find that the ozone layer will be vulnerable to volcanic perturbation for considerably longer than previously believed. Finally, we consider the impact on column ozone of inorganic halogens being co-injected into the stratosphere following future explosive eruptions using realistic hydrogen halide to sulfur dioxide ratios.

Photogrammetric Analysis of Changes in Crater Morphology at Telica Volcano, Nicaragua from 1994 to 2016

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hanagan, C.; La Femina, P.

2017-12-01

Understanding processes that lead to volcanic eruptions is paramount for predicting future volcanic activity. Telica volcano, Nicaragua is a persistently active volcano with hundreds of daily, low magnitude and low frequency seismic events, high-temperature degassing, and sub-decadal VEI 1-3 eruptions. The phreatic vulcanian eruptions of 1999, 2011, and 2013, and phreatic to phreatomagmatic vulcanian eruption of 2015 are thought to have resulted by sealing of the hydrothermal system prior to the eruptions. Two mechanisms have been proposed for sealing of the volcanic system, hydrothermal mineralization and landslides covering the vent. These eruptions affect the crater morphology of Telica volcano, and therefore the exact mechanisms of change to the crater's form are of interest to provide data that may support or refute the proposed sealing mechanisms, improving our understanding of eruption mechanisms. We use a collection of photographs between February 1994 and May 2016 and a combination of qualitative and quantitative photogrammetry to detect the extent and type of changes in crater morphology associated with 2011, 2013, and 2015 eruptive activity. We produced dense point cloud models using Agisoft PhotoScan Professional for times with sufficient photographic coverage, including August 2011, March 2013, December 2015, March 2016, and May 2016. Our May 2016 model is georeferenced, and each other point cloud was differenced using the C2C tool in CloudCompare and the M3C2 method (CloudCompare plugin) Lague et al. (2013). Results of the qualitative observations and quantitative differencing reveal a general trend of material subtraction from the inner crater walls associated with eruptive activity and accumulation of material on the crater floor, often visibly sourced from the walls of the crater. Both daily activity and VEI 1-3 explosive events changed the crater morphology, and correlation between a landslide-covered vent and the 2011 and 2015 eruptive sequences exists. Though further study and integration with other date sets is required, a positive feedback mechanism between accumulation of material blocking the vent, eruption, and subsequent accumulation of material to re-block the vent remains possible.

Eruption Forecasting in Alaska: A Retrospective and Test of the Distal VT Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prejean, S. G.; Pesicek, J. D.; Wellik, J.; Cameron, C.; White, R. A.; McCausland, W. A.; Buurman, H.

2015-12-01

United States volcano observatories have successfully forecast most significant US eruptions in the past decade. However, eruptions of some volcanoes remain stubbornly difficult to forecast effectively using seismic data alone. The Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO) has responded to 28 eruptions from 10 volcanoes since 2005. Eruptions that were not forecast include those of frequently active volcanoes with basaltic-andesite magmas, like Pavlof, Veniaminof, and Okmok volcanoes. In this study we quantify the success rate of eruption forecasting in Alaska and explore common characteristics of eruptions not forecast. In an effort to improve future forecasts, we re-examine seismic data from eruptions and known intrusive episodes in Alaska to test the effectiveness of the distal VT model commonly employed by the USGS-USAID Volcano Disaster Assistance Program (VDAP). In the distal VT model, anomalous brittle failure or volcano-tectonic (VT) earthquake swarms in the shallow crust surrounding the volcano occur as a secondary response to crustal strain induced by magma intrusion. Because the Aleutian volcanic arc is among the most seismically active regions on Earth, distinguishing distal VT earthquake swarms for eruption forecasting purposes from tectonic seismicity unrelated to volcanic processes poses a distinct challenge. In this study, we use a modified beta-statistic to identify pre-eruptive distal VT swarms and establish their statistical significance with respect to long-term background seismicity. This analysis allows us to explore the general applicability of the distal VT model and quantify the likelihood of encountering false positives in eruption forecasting using this model alone.

Interpretation of Historical Eruptions of Mt. Baekdu Volcano, Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yun, S. H.; Cho, E.; Yang, I. S.

2014-12-01

This study is performed to find out the eruptive events of the historical period recorded in literature, which have been recognized and regarded as ones from Mt. Baekdusan, and to make volcanological interpretations of the eruptive events. Since the Millennium eruption, more than 31 eruptive events have been discovered, most of which are Plinian eruptions with volcanic ash that dispersed into the regions in the vicinity of the volcano. The minimum volume of erupted materials in 1702 is estimated to be 1.2 km3when calculated with an empirical formula using an isopach line obtained from two points 140 km away from the vent. The 1702 eruption was a paroxysmal one with VEI of 5. The historical record described a deposition of wind-modified fallout ash by movement of hot ash cloud. The 1903 record includes the event of the phreatomagmatic or vulcanian eruption that occurred within the Cheonji caldera lake. Based on the eruption records of the historical period and the 2002 precursor unrest to volcanic eruptions, Mt. Baekdusan has been evaluated and regarded as an active volcano that has the potential to erupt in the future. This research was supported by a grant [NEMA-BAEKDUSAN-2012-1-2] from the Volcanic Disaster Preparedness Research Center sponsored by National Emergency Management Agency of Korea. T

Volcanic hazard assessment for the Canary Islands (Spain) using extreme value theory, and the recent volcanic eruption of El Hierro

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sobradelo, R.; Martí, J.; Mendoza-Rosas, A. T.; Gómez, G.

2012-04-01

The Canary Islands are an active volcanic region densely populated and visited by several millions of tourists every year. Nearly twenty eruptions have been reported through written chronicles in the last 600 years, suggesting that the probability of a new eruption in the near future is far from zero. This shows the importance of assessing and monitoring the volcanic hazard of the region in order to reduce and manage its potential volcanic risk, and ultimately contribute to the design of appropriate preparedness plans. Hence, the probabilistic analysis of the volcanic eruption time series for the Canary Islands is an essential step for the assessment of volcanic hazard and risk in the area. Such a series describes complex processes involving different types of eruptions over different time scales. Here we propose a statistical method for calculating the probabilities of future eruptions which is most appropriate given the nature of the documented historical eruptive data. We first characterise the eruptions by their magnitudes, and then carry out a preliminary analysis of the data to establish the requirements for the statistical method. Past studies in eruptive time series used conventional statistics and treated the series as an homogeneous process. In this paper, we will use a method that accounts for the time-dependence of the series and includes rare or extreme events, in the form of few data of large eruptions, since these data require special methods of analysis. Hence, we will use a statistical method from extreme value theory. In particular, we will apply a non-homogeneous Poisson process to the historical eruptive data of the Canary Islands to estimate the probability of having at least one volcanic event of a magnitude greater than one in the upcoming years. Shortly after the publication of this method an eruption in the island of El Hierro took place for the first time in historical times, supporting our method and contributing towards the validation of our results.

The interplinian activity at Somma-Vesuvius in the last 3500 years

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rolandi, G.; Petrosino, P.; Mc, Geehin J.

1998-01-01

Between 1884 B.C. and A.D. 472, eruptive activity at Somma-Vesuvius was dominated by the three plinian eruptions of Avellino (3550 yr B.P.), Pompei (A.D. 79) and A.D. 472 and, as a result, little attention has been given to the intervening interplinian activity. The interplinian events are here reconstructed using new data from twenty stratigraphic sections around the lower flanks of the volcano. Three main eruptions have been identified fro the protohistoric period (3550 yr B.P.-A.D. 79). The first two occurred shortly after the Avellino event and both show a progression from magmatic to phreatomagmatic behaviour. The third eruption (2700 B.P.) consisted of five phreatomagmetic episodes separated by the emplacement of mud flows. Only one event, the explosive erupton of A.D. 203, has been identified for the ancient historic period (A.D. 79-472). In contrast, the A.D. 472 eruption was followed during the medievel period (A.D. 472-1631) by comparatively vigorous interplinian activity, including four strombolian-phreatomagmatic events and extensive lava effusion, which formed a summit cone (destroyed in A.D. 1631) similar to that on Vesuvius today. Such regular alternations of plinian and interplinian events are evident only since 3550 yr B.P. and provide important constraints for forecasting future behaviour at Somma-Vesuvius.

Eruption probabilities for the Lassen Volcanic Center and regional volcanism, northern California, and probabilities for large explosive eruptions in the Cascade Range

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nathenson, Manuel; Clynne, Michael A.; Muffler, L.J. Patrick

2012-01-01

Chronologies for eruptive activity of the Lassen Volcanic Center and for eruptions from the regional mafic vents in the surrounding area of the Lassen segment of the Cascade Range are here used to estimate probabilities of future eruptions. For the regional mafic volcanism, the ages of many vents are known only within broad ranges, and two models are developed that should bracket the actual eruptive ages. These chronologies are used with exponential, Weibull, and mixed-exponential probability distributions to match the data for time intervals between eruptions. For the Lassen Volcanic Center, the probability of an eruption in the next year is 1.4x10-4 for the exponential distribution and 2.3x10-4 for the mixed exponential distribution. For the regional mafic vents, the exponential distribution gives a probability of an eruption in the next year of 6.5x10-4, but the mixed exponential distribution indicates that the current probability, 12,000 years after the last event, could be significantly lower. For the exponential distribution, the highest probability is for an eruption from a regional mafic vent. Data on areas and volumes of lava flows and domes of the Lassen Volcanic Center and of eruptions from the regional mafic vents provide constraints on the probable sizes of future eruptions. Probabilities of lava-flow coverage are similar for the Lassen Volcanic Center and for regional mafic vents, whereas the probable eruptive volumes for the mafic vents are generally smaller. Data have been compiled for large explosive eruptions (>≈ 5 km3 in deposit volume) in the Cascade Range during the past 1.2 m.y. in order to estimate probabilities of eruption. For erupted volumes >≈5 km3, the rate of occurrence since 13.6 ka is much higher than for the entire period, and we use these data to calculate the annual probability of a large eruption at 4.6x10-4. For erupted volumes ≥10 km3, the rate of occurrence has been reasonably constant from 630 ka to the present, giving more confidence in the estimate, and we use those data to calculate the annual probability of a large eruption in the next year at 1.4x10-5.

Concentration variance decay during magma mixing: a volcanic chronometer.

PubMed

Perugini, Diego; De Campos, Cristina P; Petrelli, Maurizio; Dingwell, Donald B

2015-09-21

The mixing of magmas is a common phenomenon in explosive eruptions. Concentration variance is a useful metric of this process and its decay (CVD) with time is an inevitable consequence during the progress of magma mixing. In order to calibrate this petrological/volcanological clock we have performed a time-series of high temperature experiments of magma mixing. The results of these experiments demonstrate that compositional variance decays exponentially with time. With this calibration the CVD rate (CVD-R) becomes a new geochronometer for the time lapse from initiation of mixing to eruption. The resultant novel technique is fully independent of the typically unknown advective history of mixing - a notorious uncertainty which plagues the application of many diffusional analyses of magmatic history. Using the calibrated CVD-R technique we have obtained mingling-to-eruption times for three explosive volcanic eruptions from Campi Flegrei (Italy) in the range of tens of minutes. These in turn imply ascent velocities of 5-8 meters per second. We anticipate the routine application of the CVD-R geochronometer to the eruptive products of active volcanoes in future in order to constrain typical "mixing to eruption" time lapses such that monitoring activities can be targeted at relevant timescales and signals during volcanic unrest.

Mauna Loa eruptive history—The preliminary radiocarbon record

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lockwood, John P.

Radiocarbon dating of charcoal from beneath lava flows of Mauna Loa has provided the most detailed prehistoric eruptive chronology of any volcano on Earth. Three hundred and fifty-five 14C dates have been reviewed, stratigraphically contradictory dates have been rejected, and multiple dates on single flows averaged to give "reliable" ages on 170 separate lava flows (about 35% of the total number of prehistoric Mauna Loa flows mapped to date). The distribution of these ages has revealed fundamental variations in the time and place of Mauna Loa eruptive activity, particularly for Holocene time. As lava flow activity from Mauna Loa's summit waxes, activity on the rift zones wanes. A cyclic model is proposed which involves a period of concentrated summit shield-building activity associated with long-lived lava lakes and frequent overflows of pahoehoe lavas on the north and southeast flanks. At this time, compressive stresses across Mauna Loa's rift zones are relatively high, inhibiting eruptions in these areas. This period is then followed by a relaxation of stresses across Mauna Loa's rift zones and a long period of frequent rift zone eruptions as magma migrates downrift. This change of eruptive style is marked by summit caldera collapse (possibly associated with massive eruptions of picritic lavas low on the rift zones). Concurrent with this increased rift zone activity, the summit caldera is gradually filled by repeated summit eruptions, stress across the rift zones increases, magma rises more easily to the summit, rift activity wanes, and the cycle repeats itself. Two such cycles are suggested within the late Holocene, each lasting 1,500-2,000 years. Earlier evidence for such cycles is obscure. Mauna Loa appears to have been quiescent between 6-7 ka, for unknown reasons. A period of increased eruptive activity marked the period 8-11 ka, coincident with the Pleistocene-Holocene boundary. Other volcanoes on the Island of Hawaii for which (limited) radiocarbon dating are available show no evidence of similar cyclicity or repose. Mauna Loa may be presently nearing the end of a thousand-year-long period of increased rift zone activity, and sustained summit eruptions may characterize the volcano's most typical behavior in the millennium to come. Such a shift could eventually alter the nature of volcanic risk for future populations on Hawaii.

Hazard Assessment for POPOCATÉPETL Volcano Using Hasset: a Probability Event Tree Tool to Evaluate Future Eruptive Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferrés, D.; Reyes Pimentel, T. A.; Espinasa-Pereña, R.; Nieto, A.; Sobradelo, R.; Flores, X.; González Huesca, A. E.; Ramirez, A.

2013-05-01

Popocatépetl volcano is one of the most active in Latin America. During its last cycle of activity, beginning at the end of 1994, more than 40 episodes of dome construction and destruction have occurred inside the summit crater. Most of these episodes finished with eruptions of VEI 1-2. Eruptions of higher intensity were also registered in 1997, 2001 and 2009, of VEI≥3, which produced eruptive columns up to 8 km high and abundant and frequent ash falls on the villages at the eastern sector of the volcano. The January 22nd 2001 eruption also produced pyroclastic flows that followed several streams on the volcanic cone, reaching 4 to 6 km, and transforming to mudflows with ranges up to 15 km. The capital, Mexico City, is within the radius of 80 km from Popocatépetl volcano and can be affected by ash fall during the first months of the rainy season (May to July). Other important cities, such as Puebla and Atlixco, are located 15 to 30 km from the crater. Several villages of the states of México, Puebla and Morelos, which have a total population of 40,000 people, are inside the radius of 12 to 15 km, where the impacts of any of the products of an eruption, including pyroclastic flows, are possible. This high exposure of people and infrastructure around Popocatépetl volcano emphasizes the need of tools for early warning and the development of preventive actions to protect the population from volcanic phenomena. The diagnosis of the volcanic activity, based on the information provided by the monitoring systems, and the prognosis of the evolution of the volcano in the short-term is made by the Scientific Advisory Committee, formed by volcanologists of the National Autonomous University of Mexico, and by CENAPRED staff. From this prognosis, the alert level for the people is determined and it is spread by the code of the traffic light of volcanic alert. A volcanic event tree was constructed with the advisory of the scientific committee in the recent seismic-eruptive crisis of April-May 2012, in order to identify the most probable processes in which this unrest could have developed and to contribute to the diagnosis task. In this research, we propose a comparison between the processes identified in this preliminary volcanic event tree and another elaborated using a Hazard Assessment Event Tree probability tool (HASSET), built on a bayesian event tree structure, using mainly the information of the known eruptive history of Popocatépetl. The HASSET method is based on Bayesian Inference and is used to assess volcanic hazard of future eruptive scenarios, by evaluating the most relevant sources of uncertainty that play a role in estimating the future probability of occurrence of a specific volcanic event. The final goal is to find the most useful tools to make the diagnosis and prognosis of the Popocatépetl volcanic activity, integrating the known eruptive history of the volcano, the experience of the scientific committee and the information provided by the monitoring systems, in an interactive and user-friendly way.

Sensitivity to volcanic field boundary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Runge, Melody; Bebbington, Mark; Cronin, Shane; Lindsay, Jan; Rashad Moufti, Mohammed

2016-04-01

Volcanic hazard analyses are desirable where there is potential for future volcanic activity to affect a proximal population. This is frequently the case for volcanic fields (regions of distributed volcanism) where low eruption rates, fertile soil, and attractive landscapes draw populations to live close by. Forecasting future activity in volcanic fields almost invariably uses spatial or spatio-temporal point processes with model selection and development based on exploratory analyses of previous eruption data. For identifiability reasons, spatio-temporal processes, and practically also spatial processes, the definition of a spatial region is required to which volcanism is confined. However, due to the complex and predominantly unknown sub-surface processes driving volcanic eruptions, definition of a region based solely on geological information is currently impossible. Thus, the current approach is to fit a shape to the known previous eruption sites. The class of boundary shape is an unavoidable subjective decision taken by the forecaster that is often overlooked during subsequent analysis of results. This study shows the substantial effect that this choice may have on even the simplest exploratory methods for hazard forecasting, illustrated using four commonly used exploratory statistical methods and two very different regions: the Auckland Volcanic Field, New Zealand, and Harrat Rahat, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. For Harrat Rahat, sensitivity of results to boundary definition is substantial. For the Auckland Volcanic Field, the range of options resulted in similar shapes, nevertheless, some of the statistical tests still showed substantial variation in results. This work highlights the fact that when carrying out any hazard analysis on volcanic fields, it is vital to specify how the volcanic field boundary has been defined, assess the sensitivity of boundary choice, and to carry these assumptions and related uncertainties through to estimates of future activity and hazard analyses.

Holocene volcanism of the upper McKenzie River catchment, central Oregon Cascades, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Deligne, Natalia I.; Conrey, Richard M.; Cashman, Katharine V.; Champion, Duane E.; Amidon, William H.

2016-01-01

To assess the complexity of eruptive activity within mafic volcanic fields, we present a detailed geologic investigation of Holocene volcanism in the upper McKenzie River catchment in the central Oregon Cascades, United States. We focus on the Sand Mountain volcanic field, which covers 76 km2 and consists of 23 vents, associated tephra deposits, and lava fields. We find that the Sand Mountain volcanic field was active for a few decades around 3 ka and involved at least 13 eruptive units. Despite the small total volume erupted (∼1 km3 dense rock equivalent [DRE]), Sand Mountain volcanic field lava geochemistry indicates that erupted magmas were derived from at least two, and likely three, different magma sources. Single units erupted from one or more vents, and field data provide evidence of both vent migration and reoccupation. Overall, our study shows that mafic volcanism was clustered in space and time, involved both explosive and effusive behavior, and tapped several magma sources. These observations provide important insights on possible future hazards from mafic volcanism in the central Oregon Cascades.

Volcanoes and human history

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cashman, K. V.; Giordano, G.

2008-10-01

The study of volcanic hazards leads inevitably to questions of how past cultures have lived in volcanically active regions of the world. Here we summarize linkages between volcanological, archaeological and anthropological studies of historic and prehistoric volcanic eruptions, with the goal of evaluating the impact of past eruptions on human populations to better prepare for future events. We use examples from papers collected in this volume to illustrate ways in which volcanological studies aid archaeological investigations by providing basic stratigraphic markers and information about the nature and timing of specific volcanic events. We then turn to archaeological perspectives, which provide physical evidence of the direct impacts of volcanic eruptions, such as site abandonment and human migration, as well as indirect impacts on local cultures as reflected in human artifacts. Finally we review anthropological studies of societal responses to past and recent volcanic eruptions. We pay particular attention to both the psychological impact of catastrophic events and records of these impacts encoded within oral traditions. Taken together these studies record drastic short-term eruption impacts but adaptation to volcanic activity over the longer term, largely through strategies of adaptive land use.

Syn- and posteruptive hazards of maar diatreme volcanoes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lorenz, Volker

2007-01-01

Maar-diatreme volcanoes represent the second most common volcano type on continents and islands. This study presents a first review of syn- and posteruptive volcanic and related hazards and intends to stimulate future research in this field. Maar-diatreme volcanoes are phreatomagmatic monogenetic volcanoes. They may erupt explosively for days to 15 years. Above the preeruptive surface a relatively flat tephra ring forms. Below the preeruptive surface the maar crater is incised because of formation and downward penetration of a cone-shaped diatreme and its root zone. During activity both the maar-crater and the diatreme grow in depth and diameter. Inside the diatreme, which may penetrate downwards for up to 2.5 km, fragmented country rocks and juvenile pyroclasts accumulate in primary pyroclastic deposits but to a large extent also as reworked deposits. Ejection of large volumes of country rocks results in a mass deficiency in the root zone of the diatreme and causes the diatreme fill to subside, thus the diatreme represents a kind of growing sinkhole. Due to the subsidence of the diatreme underneath, the maar-crater is a subsidence crater and also grows in depth and diameter with ongoing activity. As long as phreatomagmatic eruptions continue the tephra ring grows in thickness and outer slope angle. Syneruptive hazards of maar-diatreme volcanoes are earthquakes, eruption clouds, tephra fall, base surges, ballistic blocks and bombs, lahars, volcanic gases, cutting of the growing maar crater into the preeruptive ground, formation of a tephra ring, fragmentation of country rocks, thus destruction of area and ground, changes in groundwater table, and potential renewal of eruptions. The main hazards mostly affect an area 3 to possibly 5 km in radius. Distal effects are comparable to those of small eruption clouds from polygenetic volcanoes. Syneruptive effects on infrastructure, people, animals, vegetation, agricultural land, and drainage are pointed out. Posteruptive hazards concern erosion and formation of lahars. Inside the crater a lake usually forms and diverse types of sediments accumulate in the crater. Volcanic gases may be released in the crater. Compaction and other diagenetic processes within the diatreme fill result in its subsidence. This posteruptive subsidence of the diatreme fill and thus crater floor is relatively large initially but will decrease with time. It may last millions of years. Various studies and monitoring are suggested for syn- and posteruptive activities of maar-diatreme volcanoes erupting in the future. The recently formed maar-diatreme volcanoes should be investigated repeatedly to understand more about their syneruptive behaviour and hazards and also their posteruptive topographic, limnic, and biologic evolution, and potential posteruptive hazards. For future maar-diatreme eruptions a hazard map with four principal hazard zones is suggested with the two innermost ones having a joint radius of up to 5 km. Areas that are potentially endangered by maar-diatreme eruptions in the future are pointed out.

Magma Supply Rate Controls Vigor (And Longevity) of Kīlauea's Ongoing East Rift Zone Eruption

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poland, M. P.; Anderson, K. R.

2015-12-01

Since 1983, Kīlauea Volcano, Hawai'i, has erupted almost continuously from vents on the East Rift Zone—at 32 years and counting, this is the longest-duration eruption in the past 500 years. Although forecasting the onset of eruptive activity using geophysical, geochemical, and geological monitoring has been demonstrated repeatedly at Kīlauea and elsewhere, little progress has been made in forecasting an eruption's waning or end, particularly in the case of long-lived eruptions. This is especially important at Kīlauea for at least two reasons: (1) caldera formation at the end of another decades-long eruption, in the 15th century, raises the possibility of a link between eruption duration and caldera formation; and (2) long-lived eruptions can have an enduring effect on local population and infrastructure, as demonstrated by the repeated destruction of property by Kīlauea's ongoing rift zone eruption. Data from the past 15 years indicate that the magma supply rate to Kīlauea is an important control on eruptive activity. Joint inversions of geophysical, geochemical, and geological observations demonstrate that in 2006 the supply rate was nearly double that of 2000-2001, resulting in an increase in lava discharge, summit inflation, and the formation of new eruptive vents. In contrast, the magma supply during 2012, and likely through 2014, was less than that of 2000-2001. This lower supply rate was associated with a lower lava discharge and may have played a role in the stalling of lava flows above population centers in the Puna District during 2014-2015. Heightened eruptive vigor may be expected if magma supply increases in the future; however, a further decrease in supply rate—which is likely already below the long-term average—may result in cessation of the eruption. Multidisciplinary monitoring, and particularly tracking of CO2 emissions and surface deformation, should be able to detect changes in supply rate before they are strongly manifested at the surface.

Progressive approach to eruption at Campi Flegrei caldera in southern Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kilburn, Christopher R. J.; de Natale, Giuseppe; Carlino, Stefano

2017-05-01

Unrest at large calderas rarely ends in eruption, encouraging vulnerable communities to perceive emergency warnings of volcanic activity as false alarms. A classic example is the Campi Flegrei caldera in southern Italy, where three episodes of major uplift since 1950 have raised its central district by about 3 m without an eruption. Individual episodes have conventionally been treated as independent events, so that only data from an ongoing episode are considered pertinent to evaluating eruptive potential. An implicit assumption is that the crust relaxes accumulated stress after each episode. Here we apply a new model of elastic-brittle failure to test the alternative view that successive episodes promote a long-term accumulation of stress in the crust. The results provide the first quantitative evidence that Campi Flegrei is evolving towards conditions more favourable to eruption and identify field tests for predictions on how the caldera will behave during future unrest.

Progressive approach to eruption at Campi Flegrei caldera in southern Italy

PubMed Central

Kilburn, Christopher R.J.; De Natale, Giuseppe; Carlino, Stefano

2017-01-01

Unrest at large calderas rarely ends in eruption, encouraging vulnerable communities to perceive emergency warnings of volcanic activity as false alarms. A classic example is the Campi Flegrei caldera in southern Italy, where three episodes of major uplift since 1950 have raised its central district by about 3 m without an eruption. Individual episodes have conventionally been treated as independent events, so that only data from an ongoing episode are considered pertinent to evaluating eruptive potential. An implicit assumption is that the crust relaxes accumulated stress after each episode. Here we apply a new model of elastic-brittle failure to test the alternative view that successive episodes promote a long-term accumulation of stress in the crust. The results provide the first quantitative evidence that Campi Flegrei is evolving towards conditions more favourable to eruption and identify field tests for predictions on how the caldera will behave during future unrest. PMID:28504261

Progressive approach to eruption at Campi Flegrei caldera in southern Italy.

PubMed

Kilburn, Christopher R J; De Natale, Giuseppe; Carlino, Stefano

2017-05-15

Unrest at large calderas rarely ends in eruption, encouraging vulnerable communities to perceive emergency warnings of volcanic activity as false alarms. A classic example is the Campi Flegrei caldera in southern Italy, where three episodes of major uplift since 1950 have raised its central district by about 3 m without an eruption. Individual episodes have conventionally been treated as independent events, so that only data from an ongoing episode are considered pertinent to evaluating eruptive potential. An implicit assumption is that the crust relaxes accumulated stress after each episode. Here we apply a new model of elastic-brittle failure to test the alternative view that successive episodes promote a long-term accumulation of stress in the crust. The results provide the first quantitative evidence that Campi Flegrei is evolving towards conditions more favourable to eruption and identify field tests for predictions on how the caldera will behave during future unrest.

Mechanism of Human Tooth Eruption: Review Article Including a New Theory for Future Studies on the Eruption Process

PubMed Central

Kjær, Inger

2014-01-01

Human eruption is a unique developmental process in the organism. The aetiology or the mechanism behind eruption has never been fully understood and the scientific literature in the field is extremely sparse. Human and animal tissues provide different possibilities for eruption analyses, briefly discussed in the introduction. Human studies, mainly clinical and radiological, have focused on normal eruption and gender differences. Why a tooth begins eruption and what enables it to move eruptively and later to end these eruptive movements is not known. Pathological eruption courses contribute to insight into the aetiology behind eruption. A new theory on the eruption mechanism is presented. Accordingly, the mechanism of eruption depends on the correlation between space in the eruption course, created by the crown follicle, eruption pressure triggered by innervation in the apical root membrane, and the ability of the periodontal ligament to adapt to eruptive movements. Animal studies and studies on normal and pathological eruption in humans can support and explain different aspects in the new theory. The eruption mechanism still needs elucidation and the paper recommends that future research on eruption keeps this new theory in mind. Understanding the aetiology of the eruption process is necessary for treating deviant eruption courses. PMID:24688798

Eruptions of Mount St. Helens : Past, present, and future

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tilling, Robert I.; Topinka, Lyn J.; Swanson, Donald A.

1990-01-01

Mount St. Helens, located in southwestern Washington about 50 miles northeast of Portland, Oregon, is one of several lofty volcanic peaks that dominate the Cascade Range of the Pacific Northwest; the range extends from Mount Garibaldi in British Columbia, Canada, to Lassen Peak in northern California. Geologists call Mount St. Helens a composite volcano (or stratovolcano), a term for steepsided, often symmetrical cones constructed of alternating layers of lava flows, ash, and other volcanic debris. Composite volcanoes tend to erupt explosively and pose considerable danger to nearby life and property. In contrast, the gently sloping shield volcanoes, such as those in Hawaii, typically erupt nonexplosively, producing fluid lavas that can flow great distances from the active vents. Although Hawaiian-type eruptions may destroy property, they rarely cause death or injury. Before 1980, snow-capped, gracefully symmetrical Mount St. Helens was known as the "Fujiyama of America." Mount St. Helens, other active Cascade volcanoes, and those of Alaska form the North American segment of the circum-Pacific "Ring of Fire," a notorious zone that produces frequent, often destructive, earthquake and volcanic activity.

Long-term Acoustic Real-Time Sensor for Polar Areas (LARA)

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-09-30

volcanic eruptions forecast for the near future, and the LARA moorings will allow us to observe the accuracy of these models in real-time. TRANSITIONS...systems at AUTEC and SCORE. In addition LARA technology will be useful for real-time monitoring of deep-ocean seismic and volcanic activity (e.g...M.J., Matsumoto, H., and Butterfield, D.A. (2012): Seismic precursors and magma ascent before the April 2011 eruption at Axial Seamount. Nature

Long-Term Acoustic Real-Time Sensor for Polar Areas (LARA)

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-09-30

segment in the northeast Pacific Ocean. Both areas have seafloor volcanic eruptions forecast for the near future, and the LARA moorings will allow us...time monitoring of deep-ocean seismic and volcanic activity (e.g., Dziak et al., 2012) - especially in areas where SOSUS coverage no longer exists...precursors and magma ascent before the April 2011 eruption at Axial Seamount. Nature Geoscience, 5, pp. 478-482. Klatt, O., Boebel, O., and Fahrbach, E

Precision Seismic Monitoring of Volcanic Eruptions at Axial Seamount

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Waldhauser, F.; Wilcock, W. S. D.; Tolstoy, M.; Baillard, C.; Tan, Y. J.; Schaff, D. P.

2017-12-01

Seven permanent ocean bottom seismometers of the Ocean Observatories Initiative's real time cabled observatory at Axial Seamount off the coast of the western United States record seismic activity since 2014. The array captured the April 2015 eruption, shedding light on the detailed structure and dynamics of the volcano and the Juan de Fuca midocean ridge system (Wilcock et al., 2016). After a period of continuously increasing seismic activity primarily associated with the reactivation of caldera ring faults, and the subsequent seismic crisis on April 24, 2015 with 7000 recorded events that day, seismicity rates steadily declined and the array currently records an average of 5 events per day. Here we present results from ongoing efforts to automatically detect and precisely locate seismic events at Axial in real-time, providing the computational framework and fundamental data that will allow rapid characterization and analysis of spatio-temporal changes in seismogenic properties. We combine a kurtosis-based P- and S-phase onset picker and time domain cross-correlation detection and phase delay timing algorithms together with single-event and double-difference location methods to rapidly and precisely (tens of meters) compute the location and magnitudes of new events with respect to a 2-year long, high-resolution background catalog that includes nearly 100,000 events within a 5×5 km region. We extend the real-time double-difference location software DD-RT to efficiently handle the anticipated high-rate and high-density earthquake activity during future eruptions. The modular monitoring framework will allow real-time tracking of other seismic events such as tremors and sea-floor lava explosions that enable the timing and location of lava flows and thus guide response research cruises to the most interesting sites. Finally, rapid detection of eruption precursors and initiation will allow for adaptive sampling by the OOI instruments for optimal recording of future eruptions. With a higher eruption recurrence rate than land-based volcanoes the Axial OOI observatory offers the opportunity to monitor and study volcanic eruptions throughout multiple cycles.

Analysis of the seismic activity associated with the 2010 eruption of Merapi Volcano, Java

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Budi-Santoso, Agus; Lesage, Philippe; Dwiyono, Sapari; Sumarti, Sri; Subandriyo; Surono; Jousset, Philippe; Metaxian, Jean-Philippe

2013-07-01

The 2010 eruption of Merapi is the first large explosive eruption of the volcano that has been instrumentally observed. The main characteristics of the seismic activity during the pre-eruptive period and the crisis are presented and interpreted in this paper. The first seismic precursors were a series of four shallow swarms during the period between 12 and 4 months before the eruption. These swarms are interpreted as the result of perturbations of the hydrothermal system by increasing heat flow. Shorter-term and more continuous precursory seismic activity started about 6 weeks before the initial explosion on 26 October 2010. During this period, the rate of seismicity increased almost constantly yielding a cumulative seismic energy release for volcano-tectonic (VT) and multiphase events (MP) of 7.5 × 1010 J. This value is 3 times the maximum energy release preceding previous effusive eruptions of Merapi. The high level reached and the accelerated behavior of both the deformation of the summit and the seismic activity are distinct features of the 2010 eruption. The hypocenters of VT events in 2010 occur in two clusters at of 2.5 to 5 km and less than 1.5 km depths below the summit. An aseismic zone was detected at 1.5-2.5 km depth, consistent with studies of previous eruptions, and indicating that this is a robust feature of Merapi's subsurface structure. Our analysis suggests that the aseismic zone is a poorly consolidated layer of altered material within the volcano. Deep VT events occurred mainly before 17 October 2010; subsequent to that time shallow activity strongly increased. The deep seismic activity is interpreted as associated with the enlargement of a narrow conduit by an unusually large volume of rapidly ascending magma. The shallow seismicity is interpreted as recording the final magma ascent and the rupture of a summit-dome plug, which triggered the eruption on 26 October 2010. Hindsight forecasting of the occurrence time of the eruption is performed by applying the Material Failure Forecast Method (FFM) using cumulative Real-time Seismic Amplitude (RSAM) calculated both from raw records and on signals classified according to their dominant frequency. Stable estimates of eruption time with errors as small as ± 4 h are obtained within a 6 day lapse time before the eruption. This approach could therefore be useful to support decision making in the case of future large explosive episodes at Merapi.

Metal enrichment of soils following the April 2012-2013 eruptive activity of the Popocatépetl volcano, Puebla, Mexico.

PubMed

Rodriguez-Espinosa, P F; Jonathan, M P; Morales-García, S S; Villegas, Lorena Elizabeth Campos; Martínez-Tavera, E; Muñoz-Sevilla, N P; Cardona, Miguel Alvarado

2015-11-01

We analyzed the total (Zn, Pb, Ni, Hg, Cr, Cd, Cu, As) and partially leachable metals (PLMs) in 25 ash and soil samples from recent (2012-2013) eruptions of the Popocatépetl Volcano in Central Mexico. More recent ash and soil samples from volcanic activity in 2012-2013 had higher metal concentrations than older samples from eruptions in 1997 suggesting that the naturally highly volatile and mobile metals leach into nearby fresh water sources. The higher proportions of As (74.72%), Zn (44.64%), Cu (42.50%), and Hg (32.86%) reflect not only their considerable mobility but also the fact that they are dissolved and accumulated quickly following an eruption. Comparison of our concentration patterns with sediment quality guidelines indicates that the Cu, Cd, Cr, Hg, Ni, and Pb concentrations are higher than permissible limits; this situation must be monitored closely as these concentrations may reach lethal levels in the future.

Grain size and shape analysis of the AD 1226 tephra layer, Reykjanes volcanic system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ösp Magnúsdóttir, Agnes; Höskuldsson, Ármann; Larsen, Guðrún; Tumi Guðmunsson, Magnús; Sigurgeirsson, Magnús Á.

2014-05-01

Recent explosive eruptions in Iceland have drawn attention to long range tephra transport in the atmosphere. In Iceland tephra forming explosion eruptions are frequent, due to abundance of water. However, the volcanism on the island is principally basaltic. Volcanism along the Reykjanes Peninsula is divided into five distinct volcanic systems. Volcano-tectonic activity within these systems is periodic, with recurrence intervals in the range of 1 ka. Last volcano-tectonic sequence began around AD 940, shortly after settlement of Iceland, and lasted through AD 1340. During this period activity was characterized by basaltic fissure eruptions. Furthermore, this activity period on the Reykjanes peninsula began within the eastern most volcanic system and gradually moved towards the west across the peninsula. The 1226 eruption was a basaltic fissure eruption with in the Reykjanes volcanic system. The eruption began on land and gradually progressed towards the SW until the volcanic fissure extended into the sea. Water-magma interaction changed the eruption from effusive into explosive forming the largest tephra layer on the peninsula. Due to its close proximity to the Keflavik international airport and that of the capital of Iceland it is important to get an insight into, the characteristics, generation and distribution of such tephra deposits. In this eruption the tephra produced had an approximate volume of 0.1 km3 and covered an area of some 3500 km2 within the 0.5 cm isopach. Total grain size distribution of this tephra layer will be presented along with analysis of principal grain shapes of the finer portion of the tephra layer as a function of distance from the source. The tephra grain size is dominated by particles finer than 1 millimeter with an almost complete absence of large grains independent of distance from the source. Comprehensive understanding of the characteristics of tephra generated in this eruption can help us to understand hazards posed by future eruptions of similar nature in the area.

Database for the Geologic Map of Newberry Volcano, Deschutes, Klamath, and Lake Counties, Oregon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bard, Joseph A.; Ramsey, David W.; MacLeod, Norman S.; Sherrod, David R.; Chitwood, Lawrence A.; Jensen, Robert A.

2013-01-01

Newberry Volcano, one of the largest Quaternary volcanoes in the conterminous United States, is a broad shield-shaped volcano measuring 60 km north-south by 30 km east-west with a maximum elevation of more than 2 km. Newberry Volcano is the product of deposits from thousands of eruptions, including at least 25 in the past approximately 12,000 years (Holocene Epoch). Newberry Volcano has erupted as recently as 1,300 years ago, but isotopic ages indicate that the volcano began its growth as early as 0.6 million years ago. Such a long eruptive history and recent activity suggest that Newberry Volcano is likely to erupt in the future. This geologic map database of Newberry Volcano distinguishes rocks and deposits based on their composition, age, and lithology.

A historical analysis of Plinian unrest and the key promoters of explosive activity.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winson, A. E. G.; Newhall, C. G.; Costa, F.

2015-12-01

Plinian eruptions are the largest historically recorded volcanic phenomena, and have the potential to be widely destructive. Yet when a volcano becomes newly restless we are unable to anticipate whether or not a large eruption is imminent. We present the findings from a multi-parametric study of 42 large explosive eruptions (29 Plinian and 13 Sub-plinian) that form the basis for a new Bayesian Belief network that addresses this question. We combine the eruptive history of the volcanoes that have produced these large eruptions with petrological studies, and reported unrest phenomena to assess the probability of an eruption being plinian. We find that the 'plinian probability' is increased most strongly by the presence of an exsolved volatile phase in the reservoir prior to an eruption. In our survey 60% of the plinian eruptions, had an excess SO2 gas phase of more than double than it is calculated by petrologic studies alone. Probability is also increased by three related and more easily observable parameters: a high plinian Ratio (that is the ratio of VEI≥4 eruptions in a volcanoes history to the number of all VEI≥2 eruptions in the history), a repose time of more than 1000 years, and a Repose Ratio (the ratio of the average return of VEI≥4 eruptions in the volcanic record to the repose time since the last VEI≥4) of greater than 0.7. We looked for unrest signals that potentially are indicative of future plinian activity and report a few observations from case studies but cannot say if these will generally appear. Finally we present a retrospective analysis of the probabilities of eruptions in our study becoming plinian, using our Bayesian belief network. We find that these probabilities are up to about 4 times greater than those calculate from an a priori assessment of the global eruptive catalogue.

Construction of the North Head (Maungauika) tuff cone: a product of Surtseyan volcanism, rare in the Auckland Volcanic Field, New Zealand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Agustín-Flores, Javier; Németh, Károly; Cronin, Shane J.; Lindsay, Jan M.; Kereszturi, Gábor

2015-02-01

The Auckland Volcanic Field (AVF) comprises at least 52 monogenetic eruption centres dispersed over ˜360 km2. Eruptions have occurred sporadically since 250 ka, predominantly when glacio-eustatic sea levels were lower than today. Now that around 35 % of the field is covered by shallow water (up to 30 m depth), any eruption occurring in the present or near future within this area may display Surtseyan dynamics. The North Head tuff cone evidences eruptive dynamics caused by magma interaction with seawater. The first stages of the eruption comprise a phreatomagmatic phase that built a 48-m-high tuff cone. North Head tuff deposits contain few lithic fragments (<10 vol%) and are characterized by deposits from collapsing tephra jets and fall from relatively wet tephra columns. The conditions needed for this eruption existed between 128 and 116 ka, when the sea level in the Auckland area was at least 10-12 m above the pre-eruptive surface. The hazards associated with this type of eruption pose a risk to the densely populated coastal residential zones and the activities of one of the busiest harbours in New Zealand.

Preliminary volcano-hazard assessment for Iliamna Volcano, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Waythomas, Christopher F.; Miller, Thomas P.

1999-01-01

Iliamna Volcano is a 3,053-meter-high, ice- and snow-covered stratovolcano in the southwestern Cook Inlet region about 225 kilometers southwest of Anchorage and about 100 kilometers northwest of Homer. Historical eruptions of Iliamna Volcano have not been positively documented; however, the volcano regularly emits steam and gas, and small, shallow earthquakes are often detected beneath the summit area. The most recent eruptions of the volcano occurred about 300 years ago, and possibly as recently as 90-140 years ago. Prehistoric eruptions have generated plumes of volcanic ash, pyroclastic flows, and lahars that extended to the volcano flanks and beyond. Rock avalanches from the summit area have occurred numerous times in the past. These avalanches flowed several kilometers down the flanks and at least two large avalanches transformed to cohesive lahars. The number and distribution of known volcanic ash deposits from Iliamna Volcano indicate that volcanic ash clouds from prehistoric eruptions were significantly less voluminous and probably less common relative to ash clouds generated by eruptions of other Cook Inlet volcanoes. Plumes of volcanic ash from Iliamna Volcano would be a major hazard to jet aircraft using Anchorage International Airport and other local airports, and depending on wind direction, could drift at least as far as the Kenai Peninsula and beyond. Ashfall from future eruptions could disrupt oil and gas operations and shipping activities in Cook Inlet. Because Iliamna Volcano has not erupted for several hundred years, a future eruption could involve significant amounts of ice and snow that could lead to the formation of large lahars and downstream flooding. The greatest hazards in order of importance are described below and shown on plate 1.

Rapid Loss of Andean Alpine Glaciers: A Reflection on Cotopaxi´s Long-Distance Historical Lahars and Future Lahar Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mothes, P. A.; Hall, M. L.; Samaniego, P.; Francou, B.; Castro, M.; Hidalgo, X.

2007-05-01

Andean alpine glaciers are in rapid retreat, as witnessed by actual measurements, comparative imagery and popular memory. Overall glacier losses will diminish future water availability for human consumption as well as for lahar generation, the product of mixing incandescent eruptive materials with glacial ice and snow. The field study and modeling of long-distance historical lahars from Cotopaxi volcano, Ecuador has shown them to be some of the most voluminous and longest reported. Based on back calculations, peak discharges were commonly between 45,000-60,000 m3/sec, velocities reached 70 km/hr, and run outs attained 325 km. The last "super" debris flow was produced at Cotopaxi in 1877. Observations made after the 1877 eruption reported that the glacier had suffered about 10 meters of ice stripped off the top and the incision of deep gullies from melting and erosion by the scoria block-rich pyroclastic flows. Average reductions of 45% and 60%, respectively, of the area and volume of Cotopaxi´s 19 alpine glaciers during the last 30 years have left an ice cap of only 13 km2 and a volume of 0.60 km3. Descriptions by astute 18th and 19th century observers lead us to conclude that Cotopaxi glaciers were much more robust then, surpassing a total area of about 30 km2, a fact which contributed to generating large volume lahars and high discharges, during the waning "Little Ice Age". If an eruption similar to that of 1877 occurs at Cotopaxi in the future, reduced glacier sizes and the glaciers´ preferential distribution upon the cone will likely attenuate volcano-ice interactions and will lower the probability of "super" lahars being produced during eruptive periods. However, in the last 2000 years of eruptive activity, explosive eruptions display a large size span-- from weakly explosive events (VEI= 2) to highly explosive eruptive cycles (VEI= 4-5). Given the uncertainty of the size of the next explosive eruption of Cotopaxi, several scenarios for lahar generation must be envisioned, which include the magnitude of the explosive event as well as the retreat of the glacier. These scenarios all have implications for the populations living in adjacent valleys, where future lahars may pass.

Eruption-induced modifications to volcanic seismicity at Ruapehu, New Zealand, and its implications for eruption forecasting

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bryan, C.J.; Sherburn, S.

2003-01-01

Broadband seismic data collected on Ruapehu volcano, New Zealand, in 1994 and 1998 show that the 1995-1996 eruptions of Ruapehu resulted in a significant change in the frequency content of tremor and volcanic earthquakes at the volcano. The pre-eruption volcanic seismicity was characterized by several independent dominant frequencies, with a 2 Hz spectral peak dominating the strongest tremor and volcanic earthquakes and higher frequencies forming the background signal. The post-eruption volcanic seismicity was dominated by a 0.8-1.4 Hz spectral peak not seen before the eruptions. The 2 Hz and higher frequency signals remained, but were subordinate to the 0.8-1.4 Hz energy. That the dominant frequencies of volcanic tremor and volcanic earthquakes were identical during the individual time periods prior to and following the 1995-1996 eruptions suggests that during each of these time periods the volcanic tremor and earthquakes were generated by the same source process. The overall change in the frequency content, which occurred during the 1995-1996 eruptions and remains as of the time of the writing of this paper, most likely resulted from changes in the volcanic plumbing system and has significant implications for forecasting and real-time assessment of future eruptive activity at Ruapehu.

Volcanic hazard assessment for the Canary Islands (Spain) using extreme value theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sobradelo, R.; Martí, J.; Mendoza-Rosas, A. T.; Gómez, G.

2011-10-01

The Canary Islands are an active volcanic region densely populated and visited by several millions of tourists every year. Nearly twenty eruptions have been reported through written chronicles in the last 600 yr, suggesting that the probability of a new eruption in the near future is far from zero. This shows the importance of assessing and monitoring the volcanic hazard of the region in order to reduce and manage its potential volcanic risk, and ultimately contribute to the design of appropriate preparedness plans. Hence, the probabilistic analysis of the volcanic eruption time series for the Canary Islands is an essential step for the assessment of volcanic hazard and risk in the area. Such a series describes complex processes involving different types of eruptions over different time scales. Here we propose a statistical method for calculating the probabilities of future eruptions which is most appropriate given the nature of the documented historical eruptive data. We first characterize the eruptions by their magnitudes, and then carry out a preliminary analysis of the data to establish the requirements for the statistical method. Past studies in eruptive time series used conventional statistics and treated the series as an homogeneous process. In this paper, we will use a method that accounts for the time-dependence of the series and includes rare or extreme events, in the form of few data of large eruptions, since these data require special methods of analysis. Hence, we will use a statistical method from extreme value theory. In particular, we will apply a non-homogeneous Poisson process to the historical eruptive data of the Canary Islands to estimate the probability of having at least one volcanic event of a magnitude greater than one in the upcoming years. This is done in three steps: First, we analyze the historical eruptive series to assess independence and homogeneity of the process. Second, we perform a Weibull analysis of the distribution of repose time between successive eruptions. Third, we analyze the non-homogeneous Poisson process with a generalized Pareto distribution as the intensity function.

Holocene phreatomagmatic eruptions alongside the densely populated northern shoreline of Lake Kivu, East African Rift: timing and hazard implications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poppe, Sam; Smets, Benoît; Fontijn, Karen; Rukeza, Montfort Bagalwa; De Marie Fikiri Migabo, Antoine; Milungu, Albert Kyambikwa; Namogo, Didier Birimwiragi; Kervyn, François; Kervyn, Matthieu

2016-11-01

The Virunga Volcanic Province (VVP) represents the most active zone of volcanism in the western branch of the East African Rift System. While the VVP's two historically active volcanoes, Nyamulagira and Nyiragongo, have built scoria cones and lava flows in the adjacent lava fields, several small phreatomagmatic eruptive centers lie along Lake Kivu's northern shoreline, highlighting the potential for explosive magma-water interaction. Their presence in the densely urbanized Sake-Goma-Gisenyi area necessitates an assessment of their eruptive mechanisms and chronology. Some of these eruptive centers possess multiple vents, and depositional contacts suggest distinct eruptive phases within a single structure. Depositional facies range from polymict tuff breccia to tuff and loose lapilli, often impacted by blocks and volcanic bombs. Along with the presence of dilute pyroclastic density current (PDC) deposits, indicators of magma-water interaction include the presence of fine palagonitized ash, ash aggregates, cross-bedding, and ballistic impact sags. We estimate that at least 15 phreatomagmatic eruptions occurred in the Holocene, during which Lake Kivu rose to its current water level. Radiocarbon dates of five paleosols in the top of volcanic tuff deposits range between ˜2500 and ˜150 cal. year bp and suggest centennial- to millennial-scale recurrence of phreatomagmatic activity. A vast part of the currently urbanized zone on the northern shoreline of Lake Kivu was most likely impacted by products from phreatomagmatic activity, including PDC events, during the Late Holocene, highlighting the need to consider explosive magma-water interaction as a potential scenario in future risk assessments.

Seismic time-frequency analysis of the recent 2015 eruptive activity of Volcán de Colima, Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vargas-Bracamontes, D. M.; Nava Pichardo, F. A.; Reyes Dávila, G. A.; Arámbula-Mendoza, R.; Martínez Fierros, A.; Ramírez Vázquez, A.; González Amezcua, M.

2015-12-01

Volcán de Colima is an andesitic stratovolcano located in western Mexico. It is considered the most active volcano in Mexico, with activity characterized mainly by intermittent effusive and explosive episodes. On July 10th-12th 2015, Volcán de Colima underwent its most intense eruptive phase since its Plinian eruption in 1913. A partial collapse of the dome and of the crater wall generated several pyroclastic flows, the largest of which reached almost 10 km to the south of the volcano. Lava flows along with incandescent rockfalls descended through various flanks of the volcanic edifice. Ashfall affected people up to 40 km from the volcano's summit. Inhabitants from the small villages closest to the volcano were evacuated and authorities sealed off a 12 km area. We present an overview of the seismic activity that preceded and accompanied this eruptive phase, with data from the closest broadband and short period seismic stations of the Volcán de Colima monitoring network. We focus on the search of temporal information within the spectral content of the seismic signals. We first employ common time-frequency representations such as Fourier and wavelet transforms, but we also apply more recent techniques proposed for the analysis of non-stationary signals, such as empirical mode decomposition and the synchrosqueezing transform. We present and discuss the performances of these various methods characterizing and quantifying spectral changes which could be used to forecast future eruptive events and to evaluate the course of volcanic processes during ongoing eruptions.

Volcanic hazard at Vesuvius: An analysis for the revision of the current emergency plan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rolandi, G.

2010-01-01

Mt Somma-Vesuvius is a composite volcano on the southern margin of the Campanian Plain which has been active since 39 ka BP and which poses a hazard and risk for the people living around its base. The volcano last erupted in 1944, and since this date has been in repose. As the level of volcanic risk perception is very high in the scientific community, in 1995 a hazard and risk evaluation, and evacuation plan, was published by the Italian Department of Civil Protection ( Dipartimento della Protezione Civile) . The plan considered the response to a worst-case scenario, taken to be a subplinian eruption on the scale of the 1631 AD eruption, and based on a volcanological reconstruction of this eruption, assumes that a future eruption will be preceded by about two weeks of ground uplift at the volcano's summit, and about one week of locally perceptible seismic activity. Moreover, by analogy with the 1631 events, the plan assumes that ash fall and pyroclastic flow should be recognized as the primary volcanic hazard. To design the response to this subplinian eruption, the emergency plan divided the Somma-Vesuvius region into three hazard zones affected by pyroclastic flows (Red Zone), tephra fall (Yellow and Green Zone), and floods (Blue Zone). The plan at present is the subject of much controversy, and, in our opinion, several assumptions need to be modified according to the following arguments: a) For the precursory unrest problem, recent scientific studies show that at present neither forecast capability is realistic, so that the assumption that a future eruption will be preceded by about two weeks of forecasts need to be modified; b) Regarding the exposure of the Vesuvius region to flow phenomena, the Red Zone presents much inconsistency near the outer border as it has been defined by the administrative limits of the eighteen municipality area lying on the volcano. As this outer limit shows no uniformity, a pressing need exists to define appropriately the flow hazard zone, since there are some important public structures not considered in the current Red Zone that could be exposed to flow risk; c) Modern wind records clearly indicate that at the time of a future eruption winds could blow not only from the west, but also from the east, so that the Yellow Zone (the area with the potential to be affected by significant tephra fall deposits) must be redefined. As a result the relationship between the Yellow Zone and Green Zone (the area within and beyond which the impact of tephra fall is expected to be insignificant) must be reconsidered mainly in the Naples area; d) The May 1998 landslide, caused in the Apennine region east of the volcano by continuous rain fall, led to the definition of a zone affected by re-mobilisation of tephra (Blue Zone), confined in the Nola valley. However, as described in the 1631 chronicles of the eruption, if generation of debris flows occurs during and after a future eruption, a much wider region east of the Somma-Vesuvius must be affected by events of this type.

The amplifying influence of increased ocean stratification on a future year without a summer.

PubMed

Fasullo, J T; Tomas, R; Stevenson, S; Otto-Bliesner, B; Brady, E; Wahl, E

2017-10-31

In 1816, the coldest summer of the past two centuries was observed over northeastern North America and western Europe. This so-called Year Without a Summer (YWAS) has been widely attributed to the 1815 eruption of Indonesia's Mt. Tambora and was concurrent with agricultural failures and famines worldwide. To understand the potential impacts of a similar future eruption, a thorough physical understanding of the YWAS is crucial. Climate model simulations of both the 1815 Tambora eruption and a hypothetical analogous future eruption are examined, the latter occurring in 2085 assuming a business-as-usual climate scenario. Here, we show that the 1815 eruption drove strong responses in both the ocean and cryosphere that were fundamental to driving the YWAS. Through modulation of ocean stratification and near-surface winds, global warming contributes to an amplified surface climate response. Limitations in using major volcanic eruptions as a constraint on cloud feedbacks are also found.

History of the magmatic feeding system of the Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Civetta, L.; Arienzo, I.; D'Antonio, M.; di Renzo, V.; di Vito, M. A.; Orsi, G.

2007-05-01

The definition of the magmatic feeding system of active volcanoes in terms of architecture, composition, crystallization time-scale, relationships between composition of the erupted magmas and structural position of the vents, and magma processes, is of paramount importance for volcanic hazards evaluation. Investigations aimed at defining the Campi Flegeri magmatic system, include detailed mineralogical, geochemical and isotopic analyses (Sr, Nd, Pb, Th,U). The magmatic feeding system of the Campi Flegrei caldera is characterized by deep and shallow magma reservoirs. In the deep reservoirs (20-10 km depth) mantle- derived magmas differentiated and were contaminated by continental crust. In the shallow reservoirs isotopically distinct magmas, further differentiated, contaminated, and mixed and mingled before eruptions. These processes generated isotopically distinct components, variably interacting with the different structural elements of the Campi Flegrei caldera through time. The relationships between the structural position of the eruption vents, during the last 15 ka of activity, and the isotopic composition of the magmas erupted at the Campi Flegrei caldera allow us to reconstruct the architecture of the magmatic feeding system and to infer the chemical and isotopic composition of the magma feeding a future eruption, according to vent position.

Influences of volcano eruptions on Asian Summer Monsoon over the last 110 years.

PubMed

Ning, Liang; Liu, Jian; Sun, Weiyi

2017-02-16

Asian summer monsoon (ASM) precipitation is the primary water resource for agriculture in many Asian countries that have experienced rapid economic growth in recent decades, thus implying the necessity for further investigations on both the internal variability of the ASM and the influence of external factors on the ASM. Using long-term high-resolution (0.5° × 0.5°) observed precipitation data, contrary to previous studies on inter-annual timescale, we showed that over the last 110 years, volcanic eruptions have influenced ASM variations on an inter-decadal timescale via teleconnections with the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO). This relationship was also confirmed by Coupled Model Intercomparison Program Phase 5 (CMIP5) model simulations. During the active volcanic eruption periods (1901-1935 and 1963-1993), significantly lower ASM precipitation was observed compared with that during the inactive volcanic eruption period (1936-1962). We found that during active volcanic eruption periods, which correspond to a negative AMO state, there is an anomalously weakened Walker circulation over the tropical Pacific that transports less moisture to the ASM region and subsequently reduces ASM precipitation. This new finding may help improve decadal predictions of future changes in the ASM.

Influences of volcano eruptions on Asian Summer Monsoon over the last 110 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ning, Liang; Liu, Jian; Sun, Weiyi

2017-02-01

Asian summer monsoon (ASM) precipitation is the primary water resource for agriculture in many Asian countries that have experienced rapid economic growth in recent decades, thus implying the necessity for further investigations on both the internal variability of the ASM and the influence of external factors on the ASM. Using long-term high-resolution (0.5° × 0.5°) observed precipitation data, contrary to previous studies on inter-annual timescale, we showed that over the last 110 years, volcanic eruptions have influenced ASM variations on an inter-decadal timescale via teleconnections with the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO). This relationship was also confirmed by Coupled Model Intercomparison Program Phase 5 (CMIP5) model simulations. During the active volcanic eruption periods (1901-1935 and 1963-1993), significantly lower ASM precipitation was observed compared with that during the inactive volcanic eruption period (1936-1962). We found that during active volcanic eruption periods, which correspond to a negative AMO state, there is an anomalously weakened Walker circulation over the tropical Pacific that transports less moisture to the ASM region and subsequently reduces ASM precipitation. This new finding may help improve decadal predictions of future changes in the ASM.

Volcanology and eruptive styles of Barren Island: an active mafic stratovolcano in the Andaman Sea, NE Indian Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheth, Hetu C.; Ray, Jyotiranjan S.; Bhutani, Rajneesh; Kumar, Alok; Smitha, R. S.

2009-11-01

Barren Island (India) is a relatively little studied, little known active volcano in the Andaman Sea, and the northernmost active volcano of the great Indonesian arc. The volcano is built of prehistoric (possibly late Pleistocene) lava flows (dominantly basalt and basaltic andesite, with minor andesite) intercalated with volcaniclastic deposits (tuff breccias, and ash beds deposited by pyroclastic falls and surges), which are exposed along a roughly circular caldera wall. There are indications of a complete phreatomagmatic tephra ring around the exposed base of the volcano. A polygenetic cinder cone has existed at the centre of the caldera and produced basalt-basaltic andesite aa and blocky aa lava flows, as well as tephra, during historic eruptions (1787-1832) and three recent eruptions (1991, 1994-95, 2005-06). The recent aa flows include a toothpaste aa flow, with tilted and overturned crustal slabs carried atop an aa core, as well as locally developed tumuli-like elliptical uplifts having corrugated crusts. Based on various evidence we infer that it belongs to either the 1991 or the 1994-95 eruptions. The volcano has recently (2008) begun yet another eruption, so far only of tephra. We make significantly different interpretations of several features of the volcano than previous workers. This study of the volcanology and eruptive styles of the Barren Island volcano lays the ground for detailed geochemical-isotopic and petrogenetic work, and provides clues to what the volcano can be expected to do in the future.

An 18,000 year-long eruptive record from Volcán Chaitén, northwestern Patagonia: Paleoenvironmental and hazard-assessment implications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alloway, Brent V.; Pearce, Nick J. G.; Moreno, Patricio I.; Villarosa, Gustavo; Jara, Ignacio; De Pol-Holz, Ricardo; Outes, Valeria

2017-07-01

The 2008 eruption of Volcán Chaitén (VCha) in northwestern Patagonia was the first explosive rhyolitic eruption to have occurred within a century and provided an unprecedented scientific opportunity to examine all facets of the eruption ranging from magma rheology/ascent rates to ash-fall effects on biota and infrastructure. Up to very recently it was thought that the latest eruption prior to the 2008 event occurred c. 9750 cal. a BP. Although a number of researchers have recognised additional eruptive products, but their stratigraphy, age, and geochemical attributes have not been systematically described and/or recorded. In this study, we provide a detailed examination of andic cover-beds and tephra-bearing lake sequences located both proximally and distally to VCha, which record a series of hitherto unknown rhyolitic eruptive products and place all previous observations firmly within a coherent stratigraphic framework. Through major- and trace-element glass shard geochemistry we are able to confidently verify eruptive source. A total of 20 discrete tephra beds are recognised, with at least 10 having widespread areal distributions and/or depositional imprints broadly comparable to, or greater than, the 2008-tephra event. This record indicates that VCha has been continuously but intermittently active as far back as the end of the Last Glacial Maximum (c. 18,000 cal a BP) with two dominant, genetically related magma types and an intermediary 'mixed' type. Before this the eruptive record has been largely obscured and/or erased by widespread Andean piedmont glaciation. However, based on the tempo of VCha activity over the last c. 18,000 years, older VCha eruptives can be anticipated to occur as well as future hazardous explosive events. The new eruptive inventory will ultimately be useful for correlating equivalent-aged sequences and refining long-term eruptive tempo as well as corresponding temporal changes in magmatic evolution.

Conduit Wall Failure as a Trigger for Transition From Strombolian to Phreatomagmatic Explosive Activity in the Cova de Paúl Crater Eruption on Santo Antão, Cape Verde Islands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tarff, R. W.; Day, S. J.

2011-12-01

Episodes of hazardous phreatomagmatic explosive activity, including Surtseyan activity, occur within otherwise less dangerous effusive to mildly explosive magmatic eruptions at high-elevation vents on many oceanic island volcanoes. The water driving these explosions is sourced from freshwater aquifers within the volcanic edifices. Understanding volcanic and geophysical precursors to, and mechanisms of, the (frequently abrupt) transitions to explosive activity is required as a basis for effective warning and mitigation of the resulting hazards. Here we describe near-vent deposits around the large Cova de Paúl crater on the island of Santo Antão, Cape Verde Islands, which provide some insights into a transition from mild magmatic to violently explosive phreatomagmatic activity in one such eruption. This pre-historic but well-preserved crater formed in a single eruption that produced extensive low-temperature, lithic-rich phreatomagmatic pyroclastic flows and surge deposits; these are interbedded in proximal outcrops with airfall breccia and ash beds containing varying proportions of lithic and juvenile clasts, pointing to a series of climactic explosions within an extended period of milder explosive activity of broadly Surtseyan type. Prior to the transition to phreatomagmatic activity, the eruption had been characterized by mild Strombolian activity that produced scoria and spatter deposits of broadly tephritic composition. The Strombolian deposits contain a distinct population of strongly banded, low-vesicularity angular clasts with strongly prolate vesicles and a notably glassy appearance. These became markedly larger and more abundant just below the transition to the phreatomagmatic deposits. Comparisons of these clasts with the Strombolian scoria suggest that they are fragments of flow-banded chilled margins from the walls of the eruptive conduit. Thermal shattering of these margins to produce the angular glassy clasts may record the onset of groundwater flow into the conduit, leading to the phreatomagmatic explosive phase of the eruption. Fragmentation of the conduit wall and ingress of groundwater would likely have been accompanied by seismic swarms consisting of high-frequency fracture events and episodes of harmonic tremor, pointing to a potential geophysical signature of the onset of phreatomagmatic explosive activity in comparable future eruptions on Santo Antão and other oceanic islands.

United States-Chile binational exchange for volcanic risk reduction, 2015—Activities and benefits

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pierson, Thomas C.; Mangan, Margaret T.; Lara Pulgar, Luis E.; Ramos Amigo, Álvaro

2017-07-25

In 2015, representatives from the United States and Chile exchanged visits to discuss and share their expertise and experiences dealing with volcano hazards. Communities in both countries are at risk from various volcano hazards. Risks to lives and property posed by these hazards are a function not only of the type and size of future eruptions but also of distances from volcanoes, structural integrity of volcanic edifices, landscape changes imposed by recent past eruptions, exposure of people and resources to harm, and any mitigative measures taken (or not taken) to reduce risk. Thus, effective risk-reduction efforts require the knowledge and consideration of many factors, and firsthand experience with past volcano crises provides a tremendous advantage for this work. However, most scientists monitoring volcanoes and most officials delegated with the responsibility for emergency response and management in volcanic areas have little or no firsthand experience with eruptions or volcano hazards. The reality is that eruptions are infrequent in most regions, and individual volcanoes may have dormant periods lasting hundreds to thousands of years. Knowledge may be lacking about how to best plan for and manage future volcanic crises, and much can be learned from the sharing of insights and experiences among counterpart specialists who have had direct, recent, or different experiences in dealing with restless volcanoes and threatened populations. The sharing of information and best practices can help all volcano scientists and officials to better prepare for future eruptions or noneruptive volcano hazards, such as large volcanic mudflows (lahars), which could affect their communities.

Contrasting styles of Mount Vesuvius activity in the period between the Avellino and Pompeii Plinian eruptions, and some implications for assessment of future hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andronico, Daniele; Cioni, Raffaello

2002-09-01

Intense explosive activity occurred repeatedly at Vesuvius during the nearly 1,600-year period between the two Plinian eruptions of Avellino (3.5 ka) and Pompeii (79 A.D.). By correlating stratigraphic sections from more than 40 sites around the volcano, we identify the deposits of six main eruptions (AP1-AP6) and of some minor intervening events. Several deposits can be traced up to 20 km from the vent. Their stratigraphic and dispersal features suggest the prevalence of two main contrasting eruptive styles, each involving a complex relationship between magmatic and phreatomagmatic phases. The two main eruption styles are (1) sub-Plinian to phreato-Plinian events (AP1 and AP2 members), where deposits consist of pumice and scoria fall layers alternating with fine-grained, vesiculated, accretionary lapilli-bearing ashes; and (2) mixed, violent Strombolian to Vulcanian events (AP3-AP6 members), which deposited a complex sequence of fallout, massive to thinly stratified, scoria-bearing lapilli layers and fine ash beds. Morphology and density variations of the juvenile fragments confirm the important role played by magma-water interaction in the eruptive dynamics. The mean composition of the ejected material changes with time, and shows a strong correlation with vent position and eruption style. The ranges of intensity and magnitude of these events, derived by estimations of peak column height and volume of the ejecta, are significantly smaller than the values for the better known Plinian and sub-Plinian eruptions of Vesuvius, enlarging the spectrum of the possible eruptive scenarios at Vesuvius, useful in the assessment of its potential hazard.

Assessing future vent opening locations at the Somma-Vesuvio volcanic complex: 1. A new information geodatabase with uncertainty characterizations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tadini, A.; Bisson, M.; Neri, A.; Cioni, R.; Bevilacqua, A.; Aspinall, W. P.

2017-06-01

This study presents new and revised data sets about the spatial distribution of past volcanic vents, eruptive fissures, and regional/local structures of the Somma-Vesuvio volcanic system (Italy). The innovative features of the study are the identification and quantification of important sources of uncertainty affecting interpretations of the data sets. In this regard, the spatial uncertainty of each feature is modeled by an uncertainty area, i.e., a geometric element typically represented by a polygon drawn around points or lines. The new data sets have been assembled as an updatable geodatabase that integrates and complements existing databases for Somma-Vesuvio. The data are organized into 4 data sets and stored as 11 feature classes (points and lines for feature locations and polygons for the associated uncertainty areas), totaling more than 1700 elements. More specifically, volcanic vent and eruptive fissure elements are subdivided into feature classes according to their associated eruptive styles: (i) Plinian and sub-Plinian eruptions (i.e., large- or medium-scale explosive activity); (ii) violent Strombolian and continuous ash emission eruptions (i.e., small-scale explosive activity); and (iii) effusive eruptions (including eruptions from both parasitic vents and eruptive fissures). Regional and local structures (i.e., deep faults) are represented as linear feature classes. To support interpretation of the eruption data, additional data sets are provided for Somma-Vesuvio geological units and caldera morphological features. In the companion paper, the data presented here, and the associated uncertainties, are used to develop a first vent opening probability map for the Somma-Vesuvio caldera, with specific attention focused on large or medium explosive events.

Field Testing and Performance Evaluation of the Long-Range Acoustic Real-Time Sensor for Polar Areas (LARA)

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-09-30

Valley Ridge segment in the northeast Pacific Ocean. Both areas have seafloor volcanic eruptions forecast for the near future, and the LARA moorings...useful for real-time monitoring of deep-ocean seismic and volcanic activity (e.g., Dziak et al., 2012) - especially in areas where SOSUS coverage no...2012): Seismic precursors and magma ascent before the April 2011 eruption at Axial Seamount. Nature Geoscience, 5, pp. 478-482. Klinck, H., and

Seismic pattern recognition techniques to predict large eruptions at the Popocatépetl, Mexico, volcano

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Novelo-Casanova, D. A.; Valdés-González, C.

2008-10-01

Using pattern recognition techniques, we formulate a simple prediction rule for a retrospective prediction of the three last largest eruptions of the Popocatépetl, Mexico, volcano that occurred on 23 April-30 June 1997 (Eruption 1; VEI ~ 2-3); 11 December 2000-23 January 2001 (Eruption 2; VEI ~ 3-4) and 7 June-4 September 2002 (Eruption 3; explosive dome extrusion and destruction phase). Times of Increased Probability (TIP) were estimated from the seismicity recorded by the local seismic network from 1 January 1995 to 31 December 2005. A TIP is issued when a cluster of seismic events occurs under our algorithm considerations in a temporal window several days (or weeks) prior to large volcanic activity providing sufficient time to organize an effective alert strategy. The best predictions of the three analyzed eruptions were obtained when averaging seismicity rate over a 5-day window with a threshold value of 12 events and declaring an alarm for 45 days. A TIP was issued about six weeks before Eruption 1. TIPs were detected about one and four weeks before Eruptions 2 and 3, respectively. According to our objectives, in all cases, the observed TIPs would have allowed the development of an effective civil protection strategy. Although, under our model considerations the three eruptive events were successfully predicted, one false alarm was also issued by our algorithm. An analysis of the epicentral and depth distribution of the local seismicity used by our prediction rule reveals that successful TIPs were issued from microearthquakes that took place below and towards SE of the crater. On the contrary, the seismicity that issued the observed false alarm was concentrated below the summit of the volcano. We conclude that recording of precursory seismicity below and SE of the crater together with detection of TIPs as described here, could become an important tool to predict future large eruptions at Popocatépetl. Although our model worked well for events that occurred in the past, it is necessary to verify the real capability of the model for future eruptive events.

Perceptions of hazard and risk on Santorini

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dominey-Howes, Dale; Minos-Minopoulos, Despina

2004-10-01

Santorini, Greece is a major explosive volcano. The Santorini volcanic complex is composed of two active volcanoes—Nea Kameni and Mt. Columbo. Holocene eruptions have generated a variety of processes and deposits and eruption mechanisms pose significant hazards of various types. It has been recognized that, for major European volcanoes, few studies have focused on the social aspects of volcanic activity and little work has been conducted on public perceptions of hazard, risk and vulnerability. Such assessments are an important element of establishing public education programmes and developing volcano disaster management plans. We investigate perceptions of volcanic hazards on Santorini. We find that most residents know that Nea Kameni is active, but only 60% know that Mt. Columbo is active. Forty percent of residents fear that negative impacts on tourism will have the greatest effect on their community. In the event of an eruption, 43% of residents would try to evacuate the island by plane/ferry. Residents aged >50 have retained a memory of the effects of the last eruption at the island, whereas younger residents have no such knowledge. We find that dignitaries and municipal officers (those responsible for planning and managing disaster response) are informed about the history, hazards and effects of the volcanoes. However, there is no "emergency plan" for the island and there is confusion between various departments (Civil Defense, Fire, Police, etc.) about the emergency decision-making process. The resident population of Santorini is at high risk from the hazards associated with a future eruption.

Abstracts for the October 2012 meeting on Volcanism in the American Southwest, Flagstaff, Arizona

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lowenstern, Jacob B.

2013-01-01

Though volcanic eruptions are comparatively rare in the American Southwest, the States of Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, and Utah host Holocene volcanic eruption deposits and are vulnerable to future volcanic activity. Compared with other parts of the western United States, comparatively little research has been focused on this area, and eruption probabilities are poorly constrained. Monitoring infrastructure consists of a variety of local seismic networks, and ”backbone“ geodetic networks with little integration. Emergency response planning for volcanic unrest has received little attention by either Federal or State agencies. On October 18–20, 2012, 90 people met at the U.S. Geological Survey campus in Flagstaff, Arizona, providing an opportunity for volcanologists, land managers, and emergency responders to meet, converse, and begin to plan protocols for any future activity. Geologists contributed data on recent findings of eruptive ages, eruption probabilities, and hazards extents (plume heights, ash dispersal). Geophysicists discussed evidence for magma intrusions from seismic, geodetic, and other geophysical techniques. Network operators publicized their recent work and the relevance of their equipment to volcanic regions. Land managers and emergency responders shared their experiences with emergency planning for earthquakes. The meeting was organized out of the recognition that little attention had been paid to planning for or mitigation of volcanic hazards in the American Southwest. Moreover, few geological meetings have hosted a session specifically devoted to this topic. This volume represents one official outcome of the meeting—a collection of abstracts related to talks and poster presentations shared during the first two days of the meeting. In addition, this report includes the meeting agenda as a record of the proceedings. One additional intended outcome will be greater discussion and coordination among emergency responders, geologists, geophysicists, and land managers regarding geologic hazards in the Southwest.

Monitoring Mount Baker Volcano

USGS Publications Warehouse

Malone, S.D.; Frank, D.

1976-01-01

Hisotrically active volcanoes in the conterminous United States are restricted to the Cascade Range and extend to the Cascade Range and extend from Mount Baker near the Canadian border to Lassen Peak in northern California. Since 1800 A.D, most eruptive activity has been on a relatively small scale and has not caused loss of life or significant property damage. However, future  volcanism predictably will have more serious effects because of greatly increased use of land near volcanoes during the present century. (See "Appraising Volcanic Hazards of the Cascade Range of the Northwestern United States," Earthquake Inf. Bull., Sept.-Oct. 1974.) The recognition an impending eruption is highly important in order to minimize the potential hazard to people and property. Thus, a substantial increase in hydrothermal activity at Mount Baker in March 1975 ( see "Mount Baker Heating Up," July-Aug. 1975 issue) was regarded as a possible first signal that an eruption might occur, and an intensive monitoring program was undertaken. 

Juvenile magma recognition and eruptive dynamics inferred from the analysis of ash time series: The 2015 reawakening of Cotopaxi volcano

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gaunt, H. Elizabeth; Bernard, Benjamin; Hidalgo, Silvana; Proano, Antonio; Wright, Heather M.; Mothes, Patricia; Criollo, Evelyn; Kueppers, Ulrich

2016-01-01

Forecasting future activity and performing hazard assessments during the reactivation of volcanoes remain great challenges for the volcanological community. On August 14, 2015 Cotopaxi volcano erupted for the first time in 73 years after approximately four months of precursory activity, which included an increase in seismicity, gas emissions, and minor ground deformation. Here we discuss the use of near real-time petrological monitoring of ash samples as a complementary aid to geophysical monitoring, in order to infer eruption dynamics and evaluate possible future eruptive activity at Cotopaxi. Twenty ash samples were collected between August 14 and November 23, 2015 from a monitoring site on the west flank of the volcano. These samples contain a range of grain types that we classified as: hydrothermal/altered, lithic, juvenile, and free crystals. The relative proportions of theses grains evolved as the eruption progressed, with increasing amounts of juvenile material and a decrease in hydrothermally altered material. In samples from the initial explosion, juvenile grains are glassy, microlite-poor and contain hydrothermal minerals (opal and alunite). The rising magma came in contact with the hydrothermal system under confinement, causing hydro-magmatic explosions that cleared the upper part of the plumbing system. Subsequently, the magmatic column produced a thermal aureole in the conduit and dried out the hydrothermal system, allowing for dry eruptions. Magma ascent rates were low enough to allow for efficient outgassing and microlite growth. Constant supply of magma from below caused quasi-continuous disruption of the uppermost magma volume through a combination of shear-deformation and gas expansion. The combination of increasing crystallinity of juvenile grains, and high measured SO2 flux indicate decreasing integrated magma ascent rates and clearing of the hydrothermal system along transport pathways in a system open to gas loss. The near real-time monitoring of ash samples combined with traditional geophysical monitoring techniques during the reawakening of Cotopaxi allowed us to gain a much clearer understanding of events than when using traditional geophysical monitoring alone.

A New Technique For Quantifying Effusive Volcanic Activity at Tolbachik Volcano Using Multiple Remote Sensing Platforms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McAlpin, D. B.; Meyer, F. J.; Dehn, J.; Webley, P. W.

2016-12-01

In 1976, "The Great Tolbachik Fissure Eruption," became the largest basaltic eruption in the recorded history of the Kamchatka Peninsula. In November 2012, after thirty-six years of quiescence, Tolbachik again erupted, and continued for nine months until its end in August, 2013. Observers of the 2012-13 eruption reported a mostly effusive eruption from two main fissures, long, rapidly moving lava flows, and ash clouds of up to 6 km. Initial estimates of effusive activity reported an approximate volume of 0.52 km³ over an area of more than 35 km². In this analysis, we provide updated effusion estimates for the Tolbachik eruption, determined by thermal data acquired by the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) satellites. Each of the four AVHRR satellites carries a broad-band, five channel sensor that acquires data in the visible and infrared portions of the electromagnetic spectrum, with each satellite completing 14 daily Earth orbits. A critical component to the volume estimates is a determination of fissure size and the area of lava flow at different times during the eruption. For this purpose, we acquired optical satellite images obtained from three orbiting platforms: the Advanced Land Imager (ALI),) aboard the Earth Observer-1 (EO-1) satellite, the Operational Land Imager (OLI) aboard Landsat 8, and the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) aboard NASA's Terra satellite. From these multiple platforms, lava flow maps were prepared from repeat acquisitions over the course of the eruption. Periodic lava flow measurements clarify effusion rates as instantaneous discharge rates, mean effusion rates over time, and an overall effusion rate over the entire eruption. Given the natural limitations of effusion estimates derived from thermal data, our results are compared to effusion estimates derived by DEM differencing to evaluate accuracy. This analysis is a true multi-sensor technique that affords a method to rapidly quantify effusive volcanic activity in terms of flow temperature, lava volume, and area on a basis coeval to the eruption, and has important implications for scientific and hazard analyses of future volcanic episodes.

Trends in intrusive and eruptive activity during Kilauea's long-lived east rift zone eruption

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Orr, T. R.; Patrick, M. R.; Heliker, C.

2011-12-01

Kilauea Volcano's Pu`u `O`o eruption, continuing for nearly three decades, offers a unique opportunity to study trends in eruptive behavior. One such trend, that of uprift intrusion ± eruption, accompanied by crater floor collapse and eruptive hiatus, has been repeated several times at Pu`u `O`o. This includes the February 7, 1993, intrusion; the January 29, 1997, intrusion and eruption; the September 12, 1999, intrusion; and the June 17, 2007, intrusion and eruption. Activity resumed within Pu`u `O`o following each of these events, and crater refilling culminated eventually in the outbreak of lava from new vents on the flank of the Pu`u `O`o cone. The pattern was repeated again in 2011, when a brief fissure eruption uprift from Pu`u `O`o started on March 5. The Pu`u `O`o crater floor dropped about 115 m in response to the eruption, which ceased on March 9. After a short hiatus, lava reappeared in Pu`u `O`o on March 26, and the crater began to fill slowly thereafter by overflow from a central lava lake. Starting in late June 2011, however, the crater floor began to uplift in a wholesale fashion, suggesting an increase in the pressure beneath the Pu`u `O`o edifice. By late July, the lava within the crater had reached its highest level since early 2004, and lava had begun to overflow from the southwestern side of the crater. On August 3, the west side of the Pu`u `O`o cone was abruptly thrust upward as a sill was injected beneath that portion of the cone. Within minutes, lava began to erupt from a crack on the west flank of Pu`u `O`o, completing the pattern of intrusion, crater collapse, refilling, and breakout. During a long-lived eruption, maintaining a detailed observational and geophysical record is essential for recognizing patterns that may emerge. Recognizing such a pattern allowed Hawaiian Volcano Observatory scientists to prepare a response well in advance of the August 3, 2011 event, and provides guidance for responding to future eruption crises at Pu`u `O`o that evolve similarly.

Stratigraphy of Late Pleistocene-Holocene pyroclastic deposits of Tacana Volcano, Mexico-Guatemala

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Macias, J. L.; Arce, J. L.; Garcia-Palomo, A.; Mora, J. C.; Saucedo, R.; Hughes, S.; Scolamacchia, T.

2005-12-01

Tacana volcano (4,060 masl), the highest peak of the Tacana Volcanic Complex, is an acitve volcano located on the Mexico-Guatemala border. Tacana resumed phreatic activity in 1950 and again in 1986. After this last event, the volcano became the locus of attention of authorities and local scientists began to study the complex. Tacana's stratigraphic record has been studied using radiocarbon dating and these indicate that the volcano has been very active in the past producing at least 12 explosive eruptions during the last 40 ka years as follow: a) Four partial dome destruction events with the generation of block-and-ash flow deposits at 40, 28, <26, and 16 ka. b) Four small-volume phreatomagmatic events that emplaced dilute density currents at 10.6, 7.5, 6, and 2.5 ka. c) Four eruptions that emplaced pumice-rich fall deposits, three of them widely dispersed towards the NE flank of the volcano in Guatemala and dated at ~32, <24 and <14 ka, and finally a 0.8 ka fall deposit restricted to the crater vicinity that might represent the youngest magmatic eruption of the volcano. Although refining of these stratigraphic sequence is still underway, the eruptive chronology of Tacana volcano cleary indicates that explosive eruptions producing plinian fall and pyroclastic density currents have taken place every 1 to 8 ka years. This record constrasts with the small phreatic eruptions that occur 1-2 per century. So, this indicates that Tacana volcano is more active than previously considered and these results must be considered for future researches on hazards maps and mitigation.

The Unexpected Awakening of Chaitén Volcano, Chile

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carn, Simon A.; Pallister, John S.; Lara, Luis; Ewert, John W.; Watt, Sebastian; Prata, Alfred J.; Thomas, Ronald J.; Villarosa, Gustavo

2009-06-01

On 2 May 2008, a large eruption began unexpectedly at the inconspicuous Chaitén volcano in Chile's southern volcanic zone. Ash columns abruptly jetted from the volcano into the stratosphere, followed by lava dome effusion and continuous low-altitude ash plumes [Lara, 2009]. Apocalyptic photographs of eruption plumes suffused with lightning were circulated globally. Effects of the eruption were extensive. Floods and lahars inundated the town of Chaitén, and its 4625 residents were evacuated. Widespread ashfall and drifting ash clouds closed regional airports and cancelled hundreds of domestic flights in Argentina and Chile and numerous international flights [Guffanti et al., 2008]. Ash heavily affected the aquaculture industry in the nearby Gulf of Corcovado, curtailed ecotourism, and closed regional nature preserves. To better prepare for future eruptions, the Chilean government has boosted support for monitoring and hazard mitigation at Chaitén and at 42 other highly hazardous, active volcanoes in Chile.

The Unexpected Awakening of Chaitén Volcano, Chile

USGS Publications Warehouse

Carn, Simon A.; Zogorski, John S.; Lara, Luis; Ewert, John W.; Watt, Sebastian; Prata, Alfred J.; Thomas, Ronald J.; Villarosa, Gustavo

2009-01-01

On 2 May 2008, a large eruption began unexpectedly at the inconspicuous Chaitén volcano in Chile's southern volcanic zone. Ash columns abruptly jetted from the volcano into the stratosphere, followed by lava dome effusion and continuous low-altitude ash plumes [Lara, 2009]. Apocalyptic photographs of eruption plumes suffused with lightning were circulated globally. Effects of the eruption were extensive. Floods and lahars inundated the town of Chaitén, and its 4625 residents were evacuated. Widespread ashfall and drifting ash clouds closed regional airports and cancelled hundreds of domestic flights in Argentina and Chile and numerous international flights [Guffanti et al., 2008]. Ash heavily affected the aquaculture industry in the nearby Gulf of Corcovado, curtailed ecotourism, and closed regional nature preserves. To better prepare for future eruptions, the Chilean government has boosted support for monitoring and hazard mitigation at Chaitén and at 42 other highly hazardous, active volcanoes in Chile.

Perception of Lava Flow Hazards and Risk at Mauna Loa and Hualalai Volcanoes, Kona, Hawaii

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gregg, C. E.; Houghton, B. F.; Johnston, D. M.; Paton, D.; Swanson, D. A.

2001-12-01

The island of Hawaii is composed of five sub-aerially exposed volcanoes, three of which have been active since 1801 (Kilauea, Mauna Loa, Hualalai). Hawaii has the fastest population growth in the state and the local economy in the Kona districts (i.e., western portion of the island) is driven by tourism. Kona is directly vulnerable to future lava flows from Mauna Loa and Hualalai volcanoes, as well as indirectly from the effects of lava flows elsewhere that may sever the few roads that connect Kona to other vital areas on the island. A number of factors such as steep slopes, high volume eruptions, and high effusion rates, combine to mean that lava flows from Hualalai and Mauna Loa can be fast-moving and hence unusually hazardous. The proximity of lifelines and structures to potential eruptive sources exacerbates societies' risk to future lava flows. Approximately \\$2.3 billion has been invested on the flanks of Mauna Loa since its last eruption in 1984 (Trusdell 1995). An equivalent figure has not yet been determined for Hualalai, but an international airport, several large resort complexes, and Kailua-Kona, the second largest town on the island, are down-slope and within 15km of potential eruptive Hualalai vents. Public and perhaps official understanding of specific lava flow hazards and the perceptions of risk from renewed volcanism at each volcano are proportional to the time lapsed since the most recent eruption that impacted Kona, rather than a quantitative assessment of risk that takes into account recent growth patterns. Lava flows from Mauna Loa and Hualalai last directly impacted upon Kona during the notorious 1950 and circa 1801 eruptions, respectively. Various non-profit organizations; local, state and federal government entities; and academic institutions have disseminated natural hazard information in Kona but despite the intuitive appeal that increased hazard understanding and risk perception results in increased hazard adjustment adoption, this assumption is not always justified (Burger and Palmer, 1992). We are nearing completion of a survey among high school students, adult residents, and tourists in Kona to evaluate hazard understanding, risk perception and adjustment adoption. The findings should serve as a foundation for the development of future lava flow hazard education and mitigation initiatives. An evaluation of demographic, infrastructure, and land-use planning issues is also being performed to assess vulnerability and societal resilience in future eruptions.

Volcanoes of the World: Reconfiguring a scientific database to meet new goals and expectations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Venzke, Edward; Andrews, Ben; Cottrell, Elizabeth

2015-04-01

The Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program's (GVP) database of Holocene volcanoes and eruptions, Volcanoes of the World (VOTW), originated in 1971, and was largely populated with content from the IAVCEI Catalog of Volcanoes of Active Volcanoes and some independent datasets. Volcanic activity reported by Smithsonian's Bulletin of the Global Volcanism Network and USGS/SI Weekly Activity Reports (and their predecessors), published research, and other varied sources has expanded the database significantly over the years. Three editions of the VOTW were published in book form, creating a catalog with new ways to display data that included regional directories, a gazetteer, and a 10,000-year chronology of eruptions. The widespread dissemination of the data in electronic media since the first GVP website in 1995 has created new challenges and opportunities for this unique collection of information. To better meet current and future goals and expectations, we have recently transitioned VOTW into a SQL Server database. This process included significant schema changes to the previous relational database, data auditing, and content review. We replaced a disparate, confusing, and changeable volcano numbering system with unique and permanent volcano numbers. We reconfigured structures for recording eruption data to allow greater flexibility in describing the complexity of observed activity, adding in the ability to distinguish episodes within eruptions (in time and space) and events (including dates) rather than characteristics that take place during an episode. We have added a reference link field in multiple tables to enable attribution of sources at finer levels of detail. We now store and connect synonyms and feature names in a more consistent manner, which will allow for morphological features to be given unique numbers and linked to specific eruptions or samples; if the designated overall volcano name is also a morphological feature, it is then also listed and described as that feature. One especially significant audit involved re-evaluating the categories of evidence used to include a volcano in the Holocene list, and reviewing in detail the entries in low-certainty categories. Concurrently, we developed a new data entry system that may in the future allow trusted users outside of Smithsonian to input data into VOTW. A redesigned website now provides new search tools and data download options. We are collaborating with organizations that manage volcano and eruption databases, physical sample databases, and geochemical databases to allow real-time connections and complex queries. VOTW serves the volcanological community by providing a clear and consistent core database of distinctly identified volcanoes and eruptions to advance goals in research, civil defense, and public outreach.

Concentration variance decay during magma mixing: a volcanic chronometer

PubMed Central

Perugini, Diego; De Campos, Cristina P.; Petrelli, Maurizio; Dingwell, Donald B.

2015-01-01

The mixing of magmas is a common phenomenon in explosive eruptions. Concentration variance is a useful metric of this process and its decay (CVD) with time is an inevitable consequence during the progress of magma mixing. In order to calibrate this petrological/volcanological clock we have performed a time-series of high temperature experiments of magma mixing. The results of these experiments demonstrate that compositional variance decays exponentially with time. With this calibration the CVD rate (CVD-R) becomes a new geochronometer for the time lapse from initiation of mixing to eruption. The resultant novel technique is fully independent of the typically unknown advective history of mixing – a notorious uncertainty which plagues the application of many diffusional analyses of magmatic history. Using the calibrated CVD-R technique we have obtained mingling-to-eruption times for three explosive volcanic eruptions from Campi Flegrei (Italy) in the range of tens of minutes. These in turn imply ascent velocities of 5-8 meters per second. We anticipate the routine application of the CVD-R geochronometer to the eruptive products of active volcanoes in future in order to constrain typical “mixing to eruption” time lapses such that monitoring activities can be targeted at relevant timescales and signals during volcanic unrest. PMID:26387555

Influences of volcano eruptions on Asian Summer Monsoon over the last 110 years

PubMed Central

Ning, Liang; Liu, Jian; Sun, Weiyi

2017-01-01

Asian summer monsoon (ASM) precipitation is the primary water resource for agriculture in many Asian countries that have experienced rapid economic growth in recent decades, thus implying the necessity for further investigations on both the internal variability of the ASM and the influence of external factors on the ASM. Using long-term high-resolution (0.5° × 0.5°) observed precipitation data, contrary to previous studies on inter-annual timescale, we showed that over the last 110 years, volcanic eruptions have influenced ASM variations on an inter-decadal timescale via teleconnections with the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO). This relationship was also confirmed by Coupled Model Intercomparison Program Phase 5 (CMIP5) model simulations. During the active volcanic eruption periods (1901–1935 and 1963–1993), significantly lower ASM precipitation was observed compared with that during the inactive volcanic eruption period (1936–1962). We found that during active volcanic eruption periods, which correspond to a negative AMO state, there is an anomalously weakened Walker circulation over the tropical Pacific that transports less moisture to the ASM region and subsequently reduces ASM precipitation. This new finding may help improve decadal predictions of future changes in the ASM. PMID:28205603

Venus lives!. [evidence for active volcanoes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wood, Charles A.; Francis, Peter W.

1988-01-01

Observational evidence which supports the contention that Venus is a volcanically and tectonically active planet is discussed. It is argued that, although there are no observations to date that would prove that Venus has been volcanically active during the last decade, planetological studies presented evidence for youthful volcanic mountains on Venus: the surface of the northern quarter of Venus is considered to be younger than 1 Gy, and some units are likely to be much younger. Because of the small sizes of likely volcanic manifestations and the long intervals expected between eruptions, it is unlikely that any direct evidence of eruptions will be detected with existing and planned spacecraft. It is suggested that future studies of the dynamics and the chemical mixing of the Venusian atmosphere might supply an unequivocal evidence for active volcanism on this planet.

Should We Stay Or Should We Go Now? Hazard Warnings, Risk Perception, and Evacuation Decisions at Pacaya Volcano, Guatemala During the 2010 Eruption.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lechner, H. N.; Rouleau, M.

2017-12-01

Pacaya volcano, in Guatemala, presents considerable risk to nearby communities and in May 2010, the volcano experienced its largest eruption in more than a decade. The eruption damaged or destroyed hundreds of homes, injured scores of people with one fatality, and prompted the evacuation of approximately 2000 people from several communities. During this eruption crisis, people living within at-risk communities were presented with the choice to evacuate or remain in the hazard zone. Many chose not to leave. Using quantitative methodologies, this research investigates evacuation decisions through causal relationships between hazard warnings, evacuation orders, risk perception, evacuation intention and behavior, and attempts to understand why some people chose to stay in harm's-way. In October 2016, we conducted a door-to-door survey administered to 172 households in eight communities within 5 km of the active vent. Participants were asked to rank factors that influenced their decision to evacuate or not, their level of trust in emergency management agencies, and the intention to evacuate during a future crisis. Initial analysis suggests that many people have confidence in emergency management agencies and information from volcano scientists; however, during the 2010 eruption, warning messages and evacuation orders were based on previous eruption patterns and tephra distribution and therefore disseminated differentially to at-risk communities. This likely delayed evacuation decisions by households in the communities that were most affected by the eruption. The data also suggest that while many households perceive evacuation as the most effective protective action, the perceived risk to one's home and property may play a more important role in the decision making process. We will discuss these results as well as communication strategies between agencies and communities, and how to better facilitate more effective and successful evacuations during future eruption crises at Pacaya volcano.

Community preparedness for lava flows from Mauna Loa and Hualālai volcanoes, Kona, Hawai'i

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gregg, Chris E.; Houghton, Bruce F.; Paton, Douglas; Swanson, Donald A.; Johnston, David M.

2004-01-01

Lava flows from Mauna Loa and Huala??lai volcanoes are a major volcanic hazard that could impact the western portion of the island of Hawai'i (e.g., Kona). The most recent eruptions of these two volcanoes to affect Kona occurred in A.D. 1950 and ca. 1800, respectively. In contrast, in eastern Hawai'i, eruptions of neighboring Ki??lauea volcano have occurred frequently since 1955, and therefore have been the focus for hazard mitigation. Official preparedness and response measures are therefore modeled on typical eruptions of Ki??lauea. The combinations of short-lived precursory activity (e.g., volcanic tremor) at Mauna Loa, the potential for fast-moving lava flows, and the proximity of Kona communities to potential vents represent significant emergency management concerns in Kona. Less is known about past eruptions of Huala??lai, but similar concerns exist. Future lava flows present an increased threat to personal safety because of the short times that may be available for responding. Mitigation must address not only the specific characteristics of volcanic hazards in Kona, but also the manner in which the hazards relate to the communities likely to be affected. This paper describes the first steps in developing effective mitigation plans: measuring the current state of people's knowledge of eruption parameters and the implications for their safety. We present results of a questionnaire survey administered to 462 high school students and adults in Kona. The rationale for this study was the long lapsed time since the last Kona eruption, and the high population growth and expansion of infrastructure over this time interval. Anticipated future growth in social and economic infrastructure in this area provides additional justification for this work. The residents of Kona have received little or no specific information about how to react to future volcanic eruptions or warnings, and short-term preparedness levels are low. Respondents appear uncertain about how to respond to threatening lava flows and overestimate the minimum time available to react, suggesting that personal risk levels are unnecessarily high. A successful volcanic warning plan in Kona must be tailored to meet the unique situation there. ?? Springer-Verlag 2004.

Magmatic unrest beneath Mammoth Mountain, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hill, D.P.; Prejean, S.

2005-01-01

Mammoth Mountain, which stands on the southwest rim of Long Valley caldera in eastern California, last erupted ???57,000 years BP. Episodic volcanic unrest detected beneath the mountain since late 1979, however, emphasizes that the underlying volcanic system is still active and capable of producing future volcanic eruptions. The unrest symptoms include swarms of small (M ??? 3) earthquakes, spasmodic bursts (rapid-fire sequences of brittle-failure earthquakes with overlapping coda), long-period (LP) and very-long-period (VLP) volcanic earthquakes, ground deformation, diffuse emission of magmatic CO2, and fumarole gases with elevated 3He/4He ratios. Spatial-temporal relations defined by the multi-parameter monitoring data together with earthquake source mechanisms suggest that this Mammoth Mountain unrest is driven by the episodic release of a volume of CO2-rich hydrous magmatic fluid derived from the upper reaches of a plexus of basaltic dikes and sills at mid-crustal depths (10-20 km). As the mobilized fluid ascends through the brittle-plastic transition zone and into overlying brittle crust, it triggers earthquake swarm activity and, in the case of the prolonged, 11-month-long earthquake swarm of 1989, crustal deformation and the onset of diffuse CO2 emissions. Future volcanic activity from this system would most likely involve steam explosions or small-volume, basaltic, strombolian or Hawaiaan style eruptions. The impact of such an event would depend critically on vent location and season.

Crater Lake revealed

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ramsey, David W.; Dartnell, Peter; Bacon, Charles R.; Robinson, Joel E.; Gardner, James V.

2003-01-01

Around 500,000 people each year visit Crater Lake National Park in the Cascade Range of southern Oregon. Volcanic peaks, evergreen forests, and Crater Lake’s incredibly blue water are the park’s main attractions. Crater Lake partially fills the caldera that formed approximately 7,700 years ago by the eruption and subsequent collapse of a 12,000-foot volcano called Mount Mazama. The caldera-forming or climactic eruption of Mount Mazama drastically changed the landscape all around the volcano and spread a blanket of volcanic ash at least as far away as southern Canada.Prior to the climactic event, Mount Mazama had a 400,000 year history of cone building activity like that of other Cascade volcanoes such as Mount Shasta. Since the climactic eruption, there have been several less violent, smaller postcaldera eruptions within the caldera itself. However, relatively little was known about the specifics of these eruptions because their products were obscured beneath Crater Lake’s surface. As the Crater Lake region is still potentially volcanically active, understanding past eruptive events is important to understanding future eruptions, which could threaten facilities and people at Crater Lake National Park and the major transportation corridor east of the Cascades.Recently, the lake bottom was mapped with a high-resolution multibeam echo sounder. The new bathymetric survey provides a 2m/pixel view of the lake floor from its deepest basins virtually to the shoreline. Using Geographic Information Systems (GIS) applications, the bathymetry data can be visualized and analyzed to shed light on the geology, geomorphology, and geologic history of Crater Lake.

Detecting the brightness temperature from Landsat-8 thermal infra red scanner preceding the Rinjani strombolian eruption 2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suwarsono, Hidayat, Suprapto, Totok; Prasasti, Indah; Parwati, Rokhis Khomarudin, M.

2017-07-01

At the end of October to early November 2015, Rinjani Volcano that is located in Lombok Island was erupted and has catapulted the ash, pyroclastic and lava flow. The dispersion of this volcanic ash in the atmosphere has been disrupting flights and the three closest airports to be closed for a while. The existence of Rinjani Volcano geographically plays an important role in the survival of life on the island of Lombok, because large areas of land on the island are a part of the Rinjani Volcano landscape. Based on the experience of violent eruptions that have occurred in the 13th century ago, the monitoring of the volcanism activity of this volcano needs to be done intensively and continuously. This is something important to do an early detection efforts of the volcanic eruption. These efforts need to be done as a preparedness effort in order to minimize adverse impacts that may occur as a result of this eruption. This research tries to detect the volcanic eruption precursor based on changes in temperature conditions of the crater and the surrounding area. We use the medium resolution satellite data, Thermal Infra Red Scanner (TIRS), on board Landsat-8, to monitor the brightness temperature as a representative of surface temperature of the volcanic region. The results showed that the brightness temperature derived from Landsat-8 TIRS is very usefull to predict the strombolian eruption which will occur in the near future. The use of multitemporal image data is important to understand the dynamics of volcanism activity over time.

Observations of coupled seismicity and ground deformation at El Hierro Island (2011-2014)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gonzalez, P. J.

2015-12-01

New insights into the magma storage and evolution at oceanic island volcanoes are now being achieved using remotely sensed space geodetic techniques, namely satellite radar interferometry. Differential radar interferometry is a technique tracking, at high spatial resolution, changes in the travel-time (distance) from the satellites to the ground surface, having wide applications in Earth sciences. Volcanic activity usually is accompanied by surface ground deformation. In many instances, modelling of surface deformation has the great advantage to estimate the magma volume change, a particularly interesting parameter prior to eruptions. Jointly interpreted with petrology, degassing and seismicity, it helps to understand the crustal magmatic systems as a whole. Current (and near-future) radar satellite missions will reduce the revisit time over global sub-aerial volcanoes to a sub-weekly basis, which will increase the potential for its operational use. Time series and filtering processing techniques of such streaming data would allow to track subsurface magma migration with high precision, and frequently update over vast areas (volcanic arcs, large caldera systems, etc.). As an example for the future potential monitoring scenario, we analyze multiple satellite radar data over El Hierro Island (Canary Islands, Spain) to measure and model surface ground deformation. El Hierro has been active for more than 3 years (2011 to 2014). Initial phases of the unrest culminated in a submarine eruption (late 2011 - early 2012). However, after the submarine eruption ended, its magmatic system still active and affected by pseudo-regular energetic seismic swarms, accompanied by surface deformation without resumed eruptions. Such example is a great opportunity to understand the crustal magmatic systems in low magma supply-rate oceanic island volcanoes. This new approach to measure surface deformation processes is yielding an ever richer level of information from volcanology to engineering and meteorological monitoring problems.

Volcanic sulfur dioxide index and volcanic explosivity index inferred from eruptive volume of volcanoes in Jeju Island, Korea: application to volcanic hazard mitigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ko, Bokyun; Yun, Sung-Hyo

2016-04-01

Jeju Island located in the southwestern part of Korea Peninsula is a volcanic island composed of lavaflows, pyroclasts, and around 450 monogenetic volcanoes. The volcanic activity of the island commenced with phreatomagmatic eruptions under subaqueous condition ca. 1.8-2.0 Ma and lasted until ca. 1,000 year BP. For evaluating volcanic activity of the most recently erupted volcanoes with reported age, volcanic explosivity index (VEI) and volcanic sulfur dioxide index (VSI) of three volcanoes (Ilchulbong tuff cone, Songaksan tuff ring, and Biyangdo scoria cone) are inferred from their eruptive volumes. The quantity of eruptive materials such as tuff, lavaflow, scoria, and so on, is calculated using a model developed in Auckland Volcanic Field which has similar volcanic setting to the island. The eruptive volumes of them are 11,911,534 m3, 24,987,557 m3, and 9,652,025 m3, which correspond to VEI of 3, 3, and 2, respectively. According to the correlation between VEI and VSI, the average quantity of SO2 emission during an eruption with VEI of 3 is 2-8 × 103 kiloton considering that the island was formed under intraplate tectonic setting. Jeju Island was regarded as an extinct volcano, however, several studies have recently reported some volcanic eruption ages within 10,000 year BP owing to the development in age dating technique. Thus, the island is a dormant volcano potentially implying high probability to erupt again in the future. The volcanoes might have explosive eruptions (vulcanian to plinian) with the possibility that SO2 emitted by the eruption reaches stratosphere causing climate change due to backscattering incoming solar radiation, increase in cloud reflectivity, etc. Consequently, recommencement of volcanic eruption in the island is able to result in serious volcanic hazard and this study provides fundamental and important data for volcanic hazard mitigation of East Asia as well as the island. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS: This research was supported by a grant [MPSS-NH-2015-81] through the Natural Hazard Mitigation Research Group funded by Ministry of Public Safety and Security of Korean government.

Drilling to investigate processes in active tectonics and magmatism

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shervais, J.; Evans, J.; Toy, V.; Kirkpatrick, J.; Clarke, A.; Eichelberger, J.

2014-12-01

Coordinated drilling efforts are an important method to investigate active tectonics and magmatic processes related to faults and volcanoes. The US National Science Foundation (NSF) recently sponsored a series of workshops to define the nature of future continental drilling efforts. As part of this series, we convened a workshop to explore how continental scientific drilling can be used to better understand active tectonic and magmatic processes. The workshop, held in Park City, Utah, in May 2013, was attended by 41 investigators from seven countries. Participants were asked to define compelling scientific justifications for examining problems that can be addressed by coordinated programs of continental scientific drilling and related site investigations. They were also asked to evaluate a wide range of proposed drilling projects, based on white papers submitted prior to the workshop. Participants working on faults and fault zone processes highlighted two overarching topics with exciting potential for future scientific drilling research: (1) the seismic cycle and (2) the mechanics and architecture of fault zones. Recommended projects target fundamental mechanical processes and controls on faulting, and range from induced earthquakes and earthquake initiation to investigations of detachment fault mechanics and fluid flow in fault zones. Participants working on active volcanism identified five themes: the volcano eruption cycle; eruption sustainability, near-field stresses, and system recovery; eruption hazards; verification of geophysical models; and interactions with other Earth systems. Recommended projects address problems that are transferrable to other volcanic systems, such as improved methods for identifying eruption history and constraining the rheological structure of shallow caldera regions. Participants working on chemical geodynamics identified four major themes: large igneous provinces (LIPs), ocean islands, continental hotspot tracks and rifts, and convergent plate margins (subduction zones). This workshop brought together a diverse group of scientists with a broad range of scientific experience and interests. A particular strength was the involvement of both early-career scientists, who will initiate and carry out these new research programs, and more senior researchers with many years of experience in scientific drilling and active tectonics research. Each of the themes and questions outlined above has direct benefits to society, including improving hazard assessment, direct monitoring of active systems for early warning, renewable and non-renewable resource and energy exploitation, and predicting the environmental impacts of natural hazards, emphasizing the central role that scientific drilling will play in future scientific and societal developments.

Volcanic-ash hazard to aviation during the 2003-2004 eruptive activity of Anatahan volcano, Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Guffanti, M.; Ewert, J.W.; Gallina, G.M.; Bluth, G.J.S.; Swanson, G.L.

2005-01-01

Within the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands (CNMI), Anatahan is one of nine active subaerial volcanoes that pose hazards to major air-traffic routes from airborne volcanic ash. The 2003-2004 eruptive activity of Anatahan volcano affected the region's aviation operations for 3 days in May 2003. On the first day of the eruption (10 May 2003), two international flights from Saipan to Japan were cancelled, and several flights implemented ash-avoidance procedures. On 13 May 2003, a high-altitude flight through volcanic gas was reported, with no perceptible damage to the aircraft. TOMS and MODIS analysis of satellite data strongly suggests that no significant ash and only minor amounts of SO2 were involved in the incident, consistent with crew observations. On 23 May 2003, airport operations were disrupted when tropical-cyclone winds dispersed ash to the south, dusting Saipan with light ashfall and causing flight cancellations there and at Guam 320 km south of the volcano. Operational (near-real-time) monitoring of ash clouds produced by Anatahan has been conducted since the first day of the eruption on 10 May 2003 by the Washington Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (VAAC). The VAAC was among the first groups outside of the immediate area of the volcano to detect and report on the unexpected eruption of Anatahan. After being contacted about an unusual cloud by National Weather Service forecasters in Guam at 1235 UTC on 10 May 2003, the VAAC analyzed GOES 9 images, confirming Anatahan as the likely source of an ash cloud and estimating that the eruption began at about 0730 UTC. The VAAC issued its first Volcanic Ash Advisory for Anatahan at 1300 UTC on 10 May 2003 more than 5 h after the start of the eruption, the delay reflecting the difficulty of detecting and confirming a surprise eruption at a remote volcano with no in situ real-time geophysical monitoring. The initial eruption plume reached 10.7-13.4 km (35,000-44,000 ft), well into jet cruise altitudes; thereafter, the maximum plume height decreased and during the rest of the eruption usually did not exceed ???5 km (???17,000 ft), which lessened the potential hazard to aircraft at higher cruise altitudes. Drifting ash clouds commonly extended hundreds of kilometers from the volcano, occasionally as far west as the Philippines. Over the course of the eruptive activity in 2003-2004, the VAAC issued 323 advisories (168 with graphical depictions of ash clouds) for Anatahan, serving as a reliable source of ash-cloud information for aviation-related meteorological offices and air carriers. With a record of frequent eruptions in the CNMI, continued satellite and in situ real-time geophysical monitoring is needed at Anatahan and other Marianas volcanoes so that potential hazards to aviation from any future eruptive activity can be quickly and correctly assessed. ?? 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Volcanic-ash hazard to aviation during the 2003 2004 eruptive activity of Anatahan volcano, Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guffanti, Marianne; Ewert, John W.; Gallina, Gregory M.; Bluth, Gregg J. S.; Swanson, Grace L.

2005-08-01

Within the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands (CNMI), Anatahan is one of nine active subaerial volcanoes that pose hazards to major air-traffic routes from airborne volcanic ash. The 2003-2004 eruptive activity of Anatahan volcano affected the region's aviation operations for 3 days in May 2003. On the first day of the eruption (10 May 2003), two international flights from Saipan to Japan were cancelled, and several flights implemented ash-avoidance procedures. On 13 May 2003, a high-altitude flight through volcanic gas was reported, with no perceptible damage to the aircraft. TOMS and MODIS analysis of satellite data strongly suggests that no significant ash and only minor amounts of SO 2 were involved in the incident, consistent with crew observations. On 23 May 2003, airport operations were disrupted when tropical-cyclone winds dispersed ash to the south, dusting Saipan with light ashfall and causing flight cancellations there and at Guam 320 km south of the volcano. Operational (near-real-time) monitoring of ash clouds produced by Anatahan has been conducted since the first day of the eruption on 10 May 2003 by the Washington Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (VAAC). The VAAC was among the first groups outside of the immediate area of the volcano to detect and report on the unexpected eruption of Anatahan. After being contacted about an unusual cloud by National Weather Service forecasters in Guam at 1235 UTC on 10 May 2003, the VAAC analyzed GOES 9 images, confirming Anatahan as the likely source of an ash cloud and estimating that the eruption began at about 0730 UTC. The VAAC issued its first Volcanic Ash Advisory for Anatahan at 1300 UTC on 10 May 2003 more than 5 h after the start of the eruption, the delay reflecting the difficulty of detecting and confirming a surprise eruption at a remote volcano with no in situ real-time geophysical monitoring. The initial eruption plume reached 10.7-13.4 km (35,000-44,000 ft), well into jet cruise altitudes; thereafter, the maximum plume height decreased and during the rest of the eruption usually did not exceed ˜5 km (˜17,000 ft), which lessened the potential hazard to aircraft at higher cruise altitudes. Drifting ash clouds commonly extended hundreds of kilometers from the volcano, occasionally as far west as the Philippines. Over the course of the eruptive activity in 2003-2004, the VAAC issued 323 advisories (168 with graphical depictions of ash clouds) for Anatahan, serving as a reliable source of ash-cloud information for aviation-related meteorological offices and air carriers. With a record of frequent eruptions in the CNMI, continued satellite and in situ real-time geophysical monitoring is needed at Anatahan and other Marianas volcanoes so that potential hazards to aviation from any future eruptive activity can be quickly and correctly assessed.

Linking rapid magma reservoir assembly and eruption trigger mechanisms at evolved Yellowstone-type supervolcanoes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wotzlaw, J.F.; Bindeman, I.N.; Watts, Kathryn E.; Schmitt, A.K.; Caricchi, L.; Schaltegger, U.

2014-01-01

The geological record contains evidence of volcanic eruptions that were as much as two orders of magnitude larger than the most voluminous eruption experienced by modern civilizations, the A.D. 1815 Tambora (Indonesia) eruption. Perhaps nowhere on Earth are deposits of such supereruptions more prominent than in the Snake River Plain–Yellowstone Plateau (SRP-YP) volcanic province (northwest United States). While magmatic activity at Yellowstone is still ongoing, the Heise volcanic field in eastern Idaho represents the youngest complete caldera cycle in the SRP-YP, and thus is particularly instructive for current and future volcanic activity at Yellowstone. The Heise caldera cycle culminated 4.5 Ma ago in the eruption of the ∼1800 km3 Kilgore Tuff. Accessory zircons in the Kilgore Tuff display significant intercrystalline and intracrystalline oxygen isotopic heterogeneity, and the vast majority are 18O depleted. This suggests that zircons crystallized from isotopically distinct magma batches that were generated by remelting of subcaldera silicic rocks previously altered by low-δ18O meteoric-hydrothermal fluids. Prior to eruption these magma batches were assembled and homogenized into a single voluminous reservoir. U-Pb geochronology of isotopically diverse zircons using chemical abrasion–isotope dilution–thermal ionization mass spectrometry yielded indistinguishable crystallization ages with a weighted mean 206Pb/238U date of 4.4876 ± 0.0023 Ma (MSWD = 1.5; n = 24). These zircon crystallization ages are also indistinguishable from the sanidine 40Ar/39Ar dates, and thus zircons crystallized close to eruption. This requires that shallow crustal melting, assembly of isolated batches into a supervolcanic magma reservoir, homogenization, and eruption occurred extremely rapidly, within the resolution of our geochronology (103–104 yr). The crystal-scale image of the reservoir configuration, with several isolated magma batches, is very similar to the reservoir configurations inferred from seismic data at active supervolcanoes. The connection of magma batches vertically distributed over several kilometers in the upper crust would cause a substantial increase of buoyancy overpressure, providing an eruption trigger mechanism that is the direct consequence of the reservoir assembly process.

Long-term volcanic hazard forecasts based on Somma-Vesuvio past eruptive activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lirer, Lucio; Petrosino, Paola; Alberico, Ines; Postiglione, Immacolata

2001-02-01

Distributions of pyroclastic deposits from the main explosive events at Somma-Vesuvio during the 8,000-year B.P.-A.D. 1906 time-span have been analysed to provide maps of volcanic hazard for long-term eruption forecasting. In order to define hazard ratings, the spatial distributions and loads (kg/m2) exerted by the fall deposits on the roofs of buildings have been considered. A load higher than 300 kg/m2 is defined as destructive. The relationship load/frequency (the latter defined as the number of times that an area has been impacted by the deposition of fall deposits) is considered to be a suitable parameter for differentiating among areas according to hazard rating. Using past fall deposit distributions as the basis for future eruptive scenarios, the total area that could be affected by the products of a future Vesuvio explosive eruption is 1,500 km2. The perivolcanic area (274 km2) has the greatest hazard rating because it could be buried by pyroclastic flow deposits thicker than 0.5 m and up to several tens of metres in thickness. Currently, the perivolcanic area also has the highest risk because of the high exposed value, mainly arising from the high population density.

Volcano hazards in the Mount Hood region, Oregon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Scott, W.E.; Pierson, T.C.; Schilling, S.P.; Costa, J.E.; Gardner, C.A.; Vallance, J.W.; Major, J.J.

1997-01-01

Mount Hood is a potentially active volcano close to rapidly growing communities and recreation areas. The most likely widespread and hazardous consequence of a future eruption will be for lahars (rapidly moving mudflows) to sweep down the entire length of the Sandy (including the Zigzag) and White River valleys. Lahars can be generated by hot volcanic flows that melt snow and ice or by landslides from the steep upper flanks of the volcano. Structures close to river channels are at greatest risk of being destroyed. The degree of hazard decreases as height above a channel increases, but large lahars can affect areas more than 30 vertical meters (100 vertical feet) above river beds. The probability of eruption-generated lahars affecting the Sandy and White River valleys is 1-in-15 to l-in-30 during the next 30 years, whereas the probability of extensive areas in the Hood River Valley being affected by lahars is about ten times less. The accompanying volcano-hazard-zonation map outlines areas potentially at risk and shows that some areas may be too close for a reasonable chance of escape or survival during an eruption. Future eruptions of Mount Hood could seriously disrupt transportation (air, river, and highway), some municipal water supplies, and hydroelectric power generation and transmission in northwest Oregon and southwest Washington.

Volcanic hazards: Perspectives from eruption prediction to risk assessment for disposal of radioactive waste

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Crowe, B.

1980-12-31

This document summarizes an oral presentation that described the potential for volcanic activity at the proposed Yucca Mountain, Texas repository site. Yucca Mountain is located in a broad zone of volcanic activity known as the Death Valley-Pancake Ridge volcanic zone. The probability estimate for the likelihood that some future volcanic event will intersect a buried repository at Yucca Mountain is low. Additionally, the radiological consequences of penetration of a repository by basaltic magma followed by eruption of the magma at the surface are limited. The combination of low probability and limited consequence suggests that the risk posed by waste storagemore » at this site is low. (TEM)« less

Using cGPS to estimate the magma budget for Soufrière Hills volcano, Montserrat, West Indies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Collinson, Amy; Neuberg, Jurgen; Pascal, Karen

2017-04-01

For over 20 years, Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat has been in a state of volcanic unrest. Intermittent periods of dome building have been punctuated by explosive eruptions and dome collapse events, endangering the lives of the inhabitants of the island. The last episode of active magma extrusion was in February 2010, and the last explosive event (ash venting) in March 2012. Despite a lack of recent eruptive activity, the volcano continues to emit significant volumes of SO2 and shows an ongoing trend of island inflation as indicated by cGPS. Through the aid of three-dimensional numerical modelling, using a finite element method, we model the cGPS data to explore the potential sources of the ongoing island deformation. We consider both magmatic (dykes and chambers) and tectonic sources which result in entirely different interpretations: Whilst a magmatic source suggests the possibility for further eruption, a tectonic source may indicate cessation of volcanic activity. We investigate the effects that different sources (shapes, characters and depths) have on the surface displacement. We demonstrate that whilst a tectonic contribution cannot be completely discounted, the dominant source is magmatic. Consequently, we define a best-fit model which we use to assess the source volume change, and therefore, the potential current magma budget. Based on the similarity in the relative displacement between the cGPS stations at every episode of the eruption, we assume that the displacement for all Phases and Pauses can be explained by the same basic source. Therefore, we interpret the cGPS data with our source model for all the preceding Pauses and Phases to estimate the magma budget feeding the entire eruption. Subsequently, we derive important insights into the potential future eruptive behaviour of the volcano.

Ash Emissions and Risk Management in the Pacific Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steensen, T. S.; Webley, P. W.; Stuefer, M.

2012-12-01

Located in the 'Ring of Fire', regions and communities around the Pacific Ocean often face volcanic eruptions and subsequent ash emissions. Volcanic ash clouds pose a significant risk to aviation, especially in the highly-frequented flight corridors around active volcano zones like Indonesia or Eastern Russia and the Alaskan Aleutian Islands. To mitigate and manage such events, a detailed quantitative analysis using a range of scientific measurements, including satellite data and Volcanic Ash Transport and Dispersion (VATD) model results, needs to be conducted in real-time. For the case study of the Sarychev Peak eruption in Russia's Kurile Islands during 2009, we compare ash loading and dispersion from Weather Research and Forecast model with online Chemistry (WRF-Chem) results with satellite data of the eruption. These parameters are needed for the real-time management of volcanic crises to outline no-fly zones and to predict the areas that the ash is most likely to reach in the near future. In the early stages after the eruption, an international group with representatives from the Kamchatkan and Sachalin Volcanic Eruption Response Teams (KVERT, SVERT), the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), and the Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO) published early research on the geological and geophysical characteristics of the eruption and the behavior of the resulting ash clouds. The study presented here is a follow-up project aimed to implement VATD model results and satellite data retrospectively to demonstrate the possibilities to develop this approach in real-time for future eruptions. Our research finds that, although meteorological cloud coverage is high in those geographical regions and, consequently, these clouds can cover most of the ash clouds and as such prevent satellites from detecting it, both approaches compare well and supplement each other to reduce the risk of volcanic eruptions. We carry out spatial extent and absolute quantitative comparisons and analyze the sensitivity of model inputs, such as eruption rate and vertical particle size distributions. Our analysis shows that comparisons between real-time satellite observations and VATD model simulations is a complex and difficult process and we present several methods that could be used to reduce the hazards and be useful in any risk assessments.

Developing Regional Tephrostratigraphic Frameworks: Applications and Challenges.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fontijn, K.; Pyle, D. M.; Smith, V.; Mather, T. A.

2017-12-01

Detailed stratigraphic studies of pyroclastic deposits form arguably the best tool to estimate the frequency and magnitude of explosive eruptions at volcanoes where limited or no historical records exist. As such tephrostratigraphy forms a first-order assessment of potential future eruptive behavior at poorly known volcanoes. Alternations of soils and pyroclastic deposits at proximal to medial distances of the volcano however typically only allow reconstructing eruptive behavior within the Holocene. Moreover, they only tend to preserve relatively large explosive eruptions, of magnitude 3-4 and above, and therefore almost invariably form a biased view of the frequency-magnitude relationships at a particular volcano. Long lacustrine records in medial to distal regions offer significant potential to obtain a more complete view of the explosive eruptive record as they often preserve thin fine-grained tephra deposits representing either small-scale explosive eruptions not preserved on land, or distal ash deposits from large explosive eruptions. Furthermore, these sedimentary records often contain material that can be dated to establish a detailed age-depth model that can be used to date the eruptions and estimate the tempo of activity. In settings where volcanoes and lakes closely co-exist, integrating terrestrial and lacustrine data therefore allows the development of regional-scale tephrostratigraphic frameworks. Such frameworks provide a view of temporal trends in volcanic activity and mid/long-term eruptive rates on a regional scale rather than at the level of an individual volcano, i.e. in interaction with regional tectonic stress regimes. They also highlight the spatial distribution of deposits from large explosive eruptions, allowing improved estimates of magnitudes of individual eruptions as well as of frequency of impact by volcanic ash in specific regions. Provided such tephra horizons are well characterized and dated they can be used as age marker horizons and help fine-tune age models for palaeoenvironmental studies. In this presentation we will highlight a few key examples of both local and regional-scale tephrostratigraphic frameworks in East Africa, Chile and South-East Asia, and discuss the multidisciplinary applications as well as challenges posed by data acquisition.

History of the Magmatic Feeding System of the Campi Flegrei Caldera

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Orsi, G.; Civetta, L.; Arienzo, I.; D'Antonio, M.; di Renzo, V.; di Vito, M. A.

2007-12-01

The definition of the magmatic feeding system of active volcanoes, in terms of composition, time-scale of crystallization, relation between composition of the erupted magma and structural position of vents, magma chamber processes and architecture, is of extreme importance for the hazard evaluation. The studies that are carried out for the definition of the magmatic systems include detailed mineralogical, geochemical and isotopic analyses (Sr, Nd, Pb). The Campi Flegrei caldera magmatic structure is characterized by deep and shallow magma chambers. In the deep reservoir (20-10 km depth) mantle derived magmas differentiate and are contaminated with continental crust. In the shallow reservoirs isotopically distinct magmas further differentiate, mix and mingle before the eruptions. These processes generated isotopically distinct components that were variably involved along different structures of the Campi Flegrei caldera during time. At Campi Flegrei caldera the relation between the structural position of the eruptive vent, for the last 14 ka of activity, and the isotopic composition of the emitted magma allow us to reconstruct the architecture of the magmatic feeding system and to infer the chemical and isotopic composition, and the magma chamber location and processes, of the future eruption, according to the position of the vent

Risk assessment for tephra dispersal and sedimentation: the example of four Icelandic volcanoes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biass, Sebastien; Scaini, Chiara; Bonadonna, Costanza; Smith, Kate; Folch, Arnau; Höskuldsson, Armann; Galderisi, Adriana

2014-05-01

In order to assist the elaboration of proactive measures for the management of future Icelandic volcanic eruptions, we developed a new approach to assess the impact associated with tephra dispersal and sedimentation at various scales and for multiple sources. Target volcanoes are Hekla, Katla, Eyjafjallajökull and Askja, selected for their high probabilities of eruption and/or their high potential impact. We combined stratigraphic studies, probabilistic strategies and numerical modelling to develop comprehensive eruption scenarios and compile hazard maps for local ground deposition and regional atmospheric concentration using both TEPHRA2 and FALL3D models. New algorithms for the identification of comprehensive probability density functions of eruptive source parameters were developed for both short and long-lasting activity scenarios. A vulnerability assessment of socioeconomic and territorial aspects was also performed at both national and continental scales. The identification of relevant vulnerability indicators allowed for the identification of the most critical areas and territorial nodes. At a national scale, the vulnerability of economic activities and the accessibility to critical infrastructures was assessed. At a continental scale, we assessed the vulnerability of the main airline routes and airports. Resulting impact and risk were finally assessed by combining hazard and vulnerability analysis.

Preliminary volcano-hazard assessment for Mount Spurr Volcano, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Waythomas, Christopher F.; Nye, Christopher J.

2001-01-01

Mount Spurr volcano is an ice- and snow-covered stratovolcano complex located in the north-central Cook Inlet region about 100 kilometers west of Anchorage, Alaska. Mount Spurr volcano consists of a breached stratovolcano, a lava dome at the summit of Mount Spurr, and Crater Peak vent, a small stratocone on the south flank of Mount Spurr volcano. Historical eruptions of Crater Peak occurred in 1953 and 1992. These eruptions were relatively small but explosive, and they dispersed volcanic ash over areas of interior, south-central, and southeastern Alaska. Individual ash clouds produced by the 1992 eruption drifted east, north, and south. Within a few days of the eruption, the south-moving ash cloud was detected over the North Atlantic. Pyroclastic flows that descended the south flank of Crater Peak during both historical eruptions initiated volcanic-debris flows or lahars that formed temporary debris dams across the Chakachatna River, the principal drainage south of Crater Peak. Prehistoric eruptions of Crater Peak and Mount Spurr generated clouds of volcanic ash, pyroclastic flows, and lahars that extended to the volcano flanks and beyond. A flank collapse on the southeast side of Mount Spurr generated a large debris avalanche that flowed about 20 kilometers beyond the volcano into the Chakachatna River valley. The debris-avalanche deposit probably formed a large, temporary debris dam across the Chakachatna River. The distribution and thickness of volcanic-ash deposits from Mount Spurr volcano in the Cook Inlet region indicate that volcanic-ash clouds from most prehistoric eruptions were as voluminous as those produced by the 1953 and 1992 eruptions. Clouds of volcanic ash emitted from the active vent, Crater Peak, would be a major hazard to all aircraft using Ted Stevens Anchorage International Airport and other local airports and, depending on wind direction, could drift a considerable distance beyond the volcano. Ash fall from future eruptions could disrupt many types of economic and social activities, including oil and gas operations and shipping activities in the Cook Inlet area. Eruptions of Crater Peak could involve significant amounts of ice and snow that would lead to the formation of large lahars, formation of volcanic debris dams, and downstream flooding. The greatest hazards in order of importance are described below and shown on plate 1.

Stochastic Modelling of Past Volcanic Crises

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woo, Gordon

2017-04-01

It is customary to have continuous monitoring of volcanoes showing signs of unrest that might lead to an eruption threatening local populations. Despite scientific progress in estimating the probability of an eruption occurring, the concept of continuously tracking eruption probability remains a future aspiration for volcano risk analysts. During some recent major volcanic crises, attempts have been made to estimate the eruption probability in real time to support government decision-making. These include the possibility of an eruption of Katla linked with the eruption of Eyjafjallajökull in 2010, and the Santorini crisis of 2011-2012. However, once a crisis fades, interest in analyzing the probability that there might have been an eruption tends to wane. There is an inherent outcome bias well known to psychologists: if disaster was avoided, there is perceived to be little purpose in exploring scenarios where a disaster might have happened. Yet the better that previous periods of unrest are understood and modelled, the better that the risk associated with future periods of unrest will be quantified. Scenarios are counterfactual histories of the future. The task of quantifying the probability of an eruption for a past period of unrest should not be merely a statistical calculation, but should serve to elucidate and refine geophysical models of the eruptive processes. This is achieved by using a Bayesian Belief Network approach, in which monitoring observations are used to draw inferences on the underlying causal factors. Specifically, risk analysts are interested in identifying what dynamical perturbations might have tipped an unrest period in history over towards an eruption, and assessing what was the likelihood of such perturbations. Furthermore, in what ways might a historical volcano crisis have turned for the worse? Such important counterfactual questions are addressed in this paper.

Probabilistic evaluation of the physical impact of future tephra fallout events for the Island of Vulcano, Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biass, Sebastien; Bonadonna, Costanza; di Traglia, Federico; Pistolesi, Marco; Rosi, Mauro; Lestuzzi, Pierino

2016-05-01

A first probabilistic scenario-based hazard assessment for tephra fallout is presented for La Fossa volcano (Vulcano Island, Italy) and subsequently used to assess the impact on the built environment. Eruption scenarios are based upon the stratigraphy produced by the last 1000 years of activity at Vulcano and include long-lasting Vulcanian and sub-Plinian eruptions. A new method is proposed to quantify the evolution through time of the hazard associated with pulsatory Vulcanian eruptions lasting from weeks to years, and the increase in hazard related to typical rainfall events around Sicily is also accounted for. The impact assessment on the roofs is performed by combining a field characterization of the buildings with the composite European vulnerability curves for typical roofing stocks. Results show that a sub-Plinian eruption of VEI 2 is not likely to affect buildings, whereas a sub-Plinian eruption of VEI 3 results in 90 % of the building stock having a ≥12 % probability of collapse. The hazard related to long-lasting Vulcanian eruptions evolves through time, and our analysis shows that the town of Il Piano, located downwind of the preferential wind patterns, is likely to reach critical tephra accumulations for roof collapse 5-9 months after the onset of the eruption. If no cleaning measures are taken, half of the building stock has a probability >20 % of suffering roof collapse.

The dynamics of Hawaiian-style eruptions: a century of study: Chapter 8 in Characteristics of Hawaiian volcanoes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mangan, Margaret T.; Cashman, Katharine V.; Swanson, Donald A.; Poland, Michael P.; Takahashi, T. Jane; Landowski, Claire M.

2014-01-01

This chapter, prepared in celebration of the Hawaiian Volcano Observatoryʼs centennial, provides a historical lens through which to view modern paradigms of Hawaiian-style eruption dynamics. The models presented here draw heavily from observations, monitoring, and experiments conducted on Kīlauea Volcano, which, as the site of frequent and accessible eruptions, has attracted scientists from around the globe. Long-lived eruptions in particular—Halema‘uma‘u 1907–24, Kīlauea Iki 1959, Mauna Ulu 1969–74, Pu‘u ‘Ō‘ō-Kupaianaha 1983–present, and Halema‘uma‘u 2008–present—have offered incomparable opportunities to conceptualize and constrain theoretical models with multidisciplinary data and to field-test model results. The central theme in our retrospective is the interplay of magmatic gas and near-liquidus basaltic melt. A century of study has shown that gas exsolution facilitates basaltic dike propagation; volatile solubility and vesiculation kinetics influence magma-rise rates and fragmentation depths; bubble interactions and gas-melt decoupling modulate magma rheology, eruption intensity, and plume dynamics; and pyroclast outgassing controls characteristics of eruption deposits. Looking to the future, we anticipate research leading to a better understanding of how eruptive activity is influenced by volatiles, including the physics of mixed CO2-H2O degassing, gas segregation in nonuniform conduits, and vaporization of external H2O during magma ascent.

Strong S-wave attenuation and actively degassing magma beneath Taal volcano, Philippines, inferred from source location analysis using high-frequency seismic amplitudes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumagai, H.; Lacson, R. _Jr., Jr.; Maeda, Y.; Figueroa, M. S., II; Yamashina, T.

2014-12-01

Taal volcano, Philippines, is one of the world's most dangerous volcanoes given its history of explosive eruptions and its close proximity to populated areas. A key feature of these eruptions is that the eruption vents were not limited to Main Crater but occurred on the flanks of Volcano Island. This complex eruption history and the fact that thousands of people inhabit the island, which has been declared a permanent danger zone, together imply an enormous potential for disasters. The Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS) constantly monitors Taal, and international collaborations have conducted seismic, geodetic, electromagnetic, and geochemical studies to investigate the volcano's magma system. Realtime broadband seismic, GPS, and magnetic networks were deployed in 2010 to improve monitoring capabilities and to better understand the volcano. The seismic network has recorded volcano-tectonic (VT) events beneath Volcano Island. We located these VT events based on high-frequency seismic amplitudes, and found that some events showed considerable discrepancies between the amplitude source locations and hypocenters determined by using onset arrival times. Our analysis of the source location discrepancies points to the existence of a region of strong S-wave attenuation near the ground surface beneath the east flank of Volcano Island. This region is beneath the active fumarolic area and above sources of pressure contributing inflation and deflation, and it coincides with a region of high electrical conductivity. The high-attenuation region matches that inferred from an active-seismic survey conducted at Taal in 1993. Our results, synthesized with previous results, suggest that this region represents actively degassing magma near the surface, and imply a high risk of future eruptions on the east flank of Volcano Island.

Preliminary volcano-hazard assessment for Akutan Volcano east-central Aleutian Islands, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Waythomas, Christopher F.; Power, John A.; Richter, Donlad H.; McGimsey, Robert G.

1998-01-01

Akutan Volcano is a 1100-meter-high stratovolcano on Akutan Island in the east-central Aleutian Islands of southwestern Alaska. The volcano is located about 1238 kilometers southwest of Anchorage and about 56 kilometers east of Dutch Harbor/Unalaska. Eruptive activity has occurred at least 27 times since historical observations were recorded beginning in the late 1700?s. Recent eruptions produced only small amounts of fine volcanic ash that fell primarily on the upper flanks of the volcano. Small amounts of ash fell on the Akutan Harbor area during eruptions in 1911, 1948, 1987, and 1989. Plumes of volcanic ash are the primary hazard associated with eruptions of Akutan Volcano and are a major hazard to all aircraft using the airfield at Dutch Harbor or approaching Akutan Island. Eruptions similar to historical Akutan eruptions should be anticipated in the future. Although unlikely, eruptions larger than those of historical time could generate significant amounts of volcanic ash, fallout, pyroclastic flows, and lahars that would be hazardous to life and property on all sectors of the volcano and other parts of the island, but especially in the major valleys that head on the volcano flanks. During a large eruption an ash cloud could be produced that may be hazardous to aircraft using the airfield at Cold Bay and the airspace downwind from the volcano. In the event of a large eruption, volcanic ash fallout could be relatively thick over parts of Akutan Island and volcanic bombs could strike areas more than 10 kilometers from the volcano.

Cycles of explosive and effusive eruptions at Kīlauea Volcano, Hawai‘i

USGS Publications Warehouse

Swanson, Don; Rose, Timothy R.; Mucek, Adonara E; Garcia, Michael O.; Fiske, Richard S.; Mastin, Larry G.

2014-01-01

The subaerial eruptive activity at Kīlauea Volcano (Hawai‘i) for the past 2500 yr can be divided into 3 dominantly effusive and 2 dominantly explosive periods, each lasting several centuries. The prevailing style of eruption for 60% of this time was explosive, manifested by repeated phreatic and phreatomagmatic activity in a deep summit caldera. During dominantly explosive periods, the magma supply rate to the shallow storage volume beneath the summit dropped to only a few percent of that during mainly effusive periods. The frequency and duration of explosive activity are contrary to the popular impression that Kīlauea is almost unceasingly effusive. Explosive activity apparently correlates with the presence of a caldera intersecting the water table. The decrease in magma supply rate may result in caldera collapse, because erupted or intruded magma is not replaced. Glasses with unusually high MgO, TiO2, and K2O compositions occur only in explosive tephra (and one related lava flow) and are consistent with disruption of the shallow reservoir complex during caldera formation. Kīlauea is a complex, modulated system in which melting rate, supply rate, conduit stability (in both mantle and crust), reservoir geometry, water table, and many other factors interact with one another. The hazards associated with explosive activity at Kīlauea’s summit would have major impact on local society if a future dominantly explosive period were to last several centuries. The association of lowered magma supply, caldera formation, and explosive activity might characterize other basaltic volcanoes, but has not been recognized.

Phreatic activity and hydrothermal alteration in the Valley of Desolation, Dominica, Lesser Antilles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mayer, Klaus; Scheu, Bettina; Yilmaz, Tim I.; Montanaro, Cristian; Albert Gilg, H.; Rott, Stefanie; Joseph, Erouscilla P.; Dingwell, Donald B.

2017-12-01

Phreatic eruptions are possibly the most dramatic surface expressions of hydrothermal activity, and they remain poorly understood. The near absence of precursory signals makes phreatic eruptions unpredictable with respect to both time and magnitude. The Valley of Desolation (VoD), Dominica, located close to the Boiling Lake, the second largest high-temperature volcanic crater lake in the world, hosts vigorous hydrothermal activity with hot springs, mud pools, fumaroles, and steaming ground. A phreatic or phreatomagmatic eruption from this site is considered to be the most likely scenario for future volcanic activity on Dominica. Yet there is little information regarding the trigger mechanisms and eruption processes of explosive events at this active hydrothermal center, and only a very small number of studies have investigated hydrothermal activity in the VoD. We therefore conducted two field campaigns in the VoD to map hydrothermal activity and its surficial phenomena. We also investigated alteration processes and their effects on degassing and phreatic eruption processes. We collected in situ petrophysical properties of clay-rich unconsolidated samples, and together with consolidated rock samples, we investigated the range of supergene and hydrothermal alteration in the laboratory. In addition, we performed rapid decompression experiments on unconsolidated soil samples. Our results show that alteration leads to an increasing abundance of clay minerals and a decrease in both strength and permeability of the rocks. In the immediate vicinity of degassing acid-sulfate fluids, advanced argillic alteration yields a mineral zoning which is influenced by meteoric water. The water-saturated basal zone is dominated by kaolinite run 0whereas alunite formation is favored at and above the groundwater table where atmospheric oxidation of H2S to H2SO4 occurs (e.g., steam-heated alteration). Alteration effects may in turn inhibit degassing at the surface, increasing the potential for pressurization in the subsurface and thus lead to phreatic eruptions. Rapid decompression experiments, together with ballistic trajectory calculations, constrain estimates of the conditions prior to the 1997 small-scale phreatic event in the VoD. The results presented here may serve as a contribution to the understanding of the hazard potential of ongoing hydrothermal activity within the VoD. On a broader perspective, our results will help evaluate hydrothermal activity in similar areas worldwide which might also have the potential for phreatic eruptions, for instance Poas (Costa Rica) or Tongariro and Waimangu (New Zealand).

Upward migration of the explosion sources at Sakurajima volcano, Japan, revield by a seismic network in the close vocinity of the summit crater

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ohminato, T.; Kaneko, T.; Koyama, T.; Watanabe, A.; Takeo, M.; Iguchi, M.

2011-12-01

Observations in the vicinity of summit area of active volcanoes are important not only for understanding physical processes in the volcanic conduit but also for eruption prediction and volcanic hazards mitigation. It is, however, challenging to install observation sensors near active vents because of the danger of sudden eruptions. We have been developing a volcano observation system based on an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) for safe observations near active volcanic vents. We deployed an unmanned autonomous helicopter which can aviate autonomously along a previously programmed path within a meter accuracy using real-time kinematics differential GPS equipment. The maximum flight time, flight distance, and payload are 90 minutes, 5km, and 10kg, respectively. By using the UAV, we installed seismic stations at the summit area of Sakurajima volcano, Japan. Since 2006, explosive eruptions have been continuing at the reopened Showa crater at the eastern flank near the summit of Sakurajima. Entering the area within 2 km from the active craters is prohibited, and thus there were no observation station in the summit area. From November 2nd to 12th, 2009, and from November 2nd to 12th, 2010, we conducted seismic station installation in Sakurajima summit area using UAV and successfully installed four seismic stations within 2km from the active craters. Since the installation of the seismic stations, we have succeeded in acquiring waveform data accompanying more than 500 moderate eruptions at Showa-crater. Except for the mechanical resonance contamination at 35Hz, the recorded waveforms are as good as that recorded at permanent stations in Sakurajima. Since the beginning of the observation in the vicinity of the summit crater, the normalized amplitudes of the signals accompanying eruptions at Showa crater had been almost steady. However, after early April 2011, gradual increase of the normalized amplitude started, and this increasing trend is continuing at the time of the abstract submission. This increasing trend of the normalized amplitude strongly suggests upward migration of the source of the explosive eruptions at Showa-crater. The upward migration may suggest further intensification of the activity of Sakurajima in the near future.

People living under threat of volcanic hazard in southern Iceland: vulnerability and risk perception

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jóhannesdóttir, G.; Gísladóttir, G.

2010-02-01

Residents in the village of Vík and in the farming community of Álftaver in southern Iceland are living with the threat of volcanic hazards. The highly active subglacial volcano Katla has erupted approximately twice per century since the beginning of settlement around 874 AD. The last major eruption was in 1918 and Katla has recently entered an agitated stage. The purpose of this research was to (1) review residents' responses in relation to vulnerability, (2) examine their risk perception, preparedness and mitigation in relation to an eruption of Katla, and (3) investigate the public and the representative of the local authorities and emergency manager's knowledge of the official evacuation plan. In 2004, we conducted in-depth, face-to-face interviews with local residents using a snowball sample technique. All participants were permanent residents of the two communities, between the ages of 25-95 and most had lived in the area their entire lives. Regardless of the residents' knowledge about past volcanic activity of Katla and the associated future risk, many residents were doubtful about the imminent eruption forecast by scientists and they believed that the volcano is no longer active. In both communities, different social, cultural and economic factors played a central role in how people perceived natural hazards and how they dealt with the fact that their lives and livelihoods could be at risk. The participants had good knowledge about the existing evacuation plan and had participated in evacuation exercises. However, they had not made personal mitigation or preparedness plans in the event of a future eruption. In contrast to the residents of Vík, the inhabitants in Álftaver are concerned about the evacuation process and found it very confusing; they neither found the emergency plan nor the proposed methods for risk communication relevant for their farming community. The perception of the inhabitants, especially in Álftaver, does not correspond to those tasked with the responsibility of developing the emergency and evacuation plans. In order to ensure the safety of all concerned, better cooperation, mutual understanding and adequate communication between the scientific community, governmental and local authorities and the inhabitants is necessary.

Upward migration of Vesuvius magma chamber over the past 20,000 years.

PubMed

Scaillet, B; Pichavant, M; Cioni, R

2008-09-11

Forecasting future eruptions of Vesuvius is an important challenge for volcanologists, as its reawakening could threaten the lives of 700,000 people living near the volcano. Critical to the evaluation of hazards associated with the next eruption is the estimation of the depth of the magma reservoir, one of the main parameters controlling magma properties and eruptive style. Petrological studies have indicated that during past activity, magma chambers were at depths between 3 and 16 km (refs 3-7). Geophysical surveys have imaged some levels of seismic attenuation, the shallowest of which lies at 8-9 km depth, and these have been tentatively interpreted as levels of preferential magma accumulation. By using experimental phase equilibria, carried out on material from four main explosive events at Vesuvius, we show here that the reservoirs that fed the eruptive activity migrated from 7-8 km to 3-4 km depth between the ad 79 (Pompeii) and ad 472 (Pollena) events. If data from the Pomici di Base event 18.5 kyr ago and the 1944 Vesuvius eruption are included, the total upward migration of the reservoir amounts to 9-11 km. The change of preferential magma ponding levels in the upper crust can be attributed to differences in the volatile content and buoyancy of ascending magmas, as well as to changes in local stress field following either caldera formation or volcano spreading. Reservoir migration, and the possible influence on feeding rates, should be integrated into the parameters used for defining expected eruptive scenarios at Vesuvius.

Airborne filter pack measurements of S and Cl in the plume of Redoubt Volcano, Alaska February–May 2009

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pfeffer, Melissa; Doukas, Michael P.; Werner, Cynthia A.; Evans, William C.

2013-01-01

Filter pack data from six airborne campaigns at Redoubt Volcano, Alaska are reported here. These measurements provide a rare constraint on Cl output from an andesitic eruption at high emission rate (> 104 t d− 1 SO2). Four S/Cl ratios measured during a period of lava dome growth indicate a depth of last magma equilibration of 2–5 km. The S/Cl ratios in combination with COSPEC SO2 emission rate measurements indicate HCl emission rates of 1500–3600 t d− 1 during dome growth. SO2 and HCl emission rates at Redoubt Volcano correlate with each other and were low prior to the eruption, high during the eruption, and low after the eruption. S/Cl ratios measured by filter pack at andesitic volcanoes have a small range of variance, with no clear trends seen for eruptive versus passive activity. The very few S/Cl ratio measurements by filter pack at andesitic volcanoes are not as predictive of future volcanic activity as has been demonstrated for basaltic volcanoes. This may be because there are so few of these measurements. We have demonstrated it is possible to collect these samples by air between explosions during lava dome-building eruptions. We recommend more filter pack sampling be performed at andesitic volcanoes to determine the technique's utility for volcano monitoring. Filter pack data has been demonstrated to be useful for calculating the depth of magma equilibration at volcanoes including Redoubt Volcano.

Preliminary impact assessment of effusive eruptions at Etna volcano

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cappello, Annalisa; Michaud-Dubuy, Audrey; Branca, Stefano; De Beni, Emanuela; Del Negro, Ciro

2016-04-01

Lava flows are a recurring and widespread form of volcanic activity that threaten people and property around the world. The growing demographic congestion around volcanic structures increases the potential risks and costs that lava flows represent, and leads to a pressing need for faster and more accurate assessment of lava flow impact. To fully evaluate potential effects and losses that an effusive eruption may cause to society, property and environment, it is necessary to consider the hazard, the distribution of the exposed elements at stake and the associated vulnerability. Lava flow hazard assessment is at an advanced state, whereas comprehensive vulnerability assessment is lacking. Cataloguing and analyzing volcanic impacts provide insight on likely societal and physical vulnerabilities during future eruptions. Here we quantify the lava flow impact of two past main effusive eruptions of Etna volcano: the 1669, which is the biggest and destructive flank eruption to have occurred on Etna in historical time, and the 1981, lasting only 6 days, but characterized by an intense eruptive dynamics. Different elements at stake are considered, including population, hospitals, critical facilities, buildings of historic value, industrial infrastructures, gas and electricity networks, railways, roads, footways and finally land use. All these elements were combined with the 1669 and 1981 lava flow fields to quantify the social damage and economic loss.

10,000 Years of explosive eruptions of Merapi Volcano, Central Java: archaeological and modern implications

USGS Publications Warehouse

Newhall, C.G.; Bronto, S.; Alloway, B.; Banks, N.G.; Bahar, I.; Del Marmol, M.A.; Hadisantono, R.D.; Holcomb, R.T.; McGeehin, J.; Miksic, J.N.; Rubin, M.; Sayudi, S.D.; Sukhyar, R.; Andreastuti, Supriyati; Tilling, R.I.; Torley, R.; Trimble, D.; Wirakusumah, A.D.

2000-01-01

Stratigraphy and radiocarbon dating of pyroclastic deposits at Merapi Volcano, Central Java, reveals ~10,000 years of explosive eruptions. Highlights include: (1) Construction of an Old Merapi stratovolcano to the height of the present cone or slightly higher. Our oldest age for an explosive eruption is 9630±60 14C y B.P.; construction of Old Merapi certainly began earlier. (2) Collapse(s) of Old Merapi that left a somma rim high on its eastern slope and sent one or more debris avalanche(s) down its southern and western flanks. Impoundment of Kali Progo to form an early Lake Borobudur at ~3400 14C y B.P. hints at a possible early collapse of Merapi. The latest somma-forming collapse occurred ~1900 14C y B.P. The current cone, New Merapi, began to grow soon thereafter. (3) Several large and many small Buddhist and Hindu temples were constructed in Central Java between 732 and ~900 A.D. (roughly, 1400-1000 14C y B.P.). Explosive Merapi eruptions occurred before, during and after temple construction. Some temples were destroyed and (or) buried soon after their construction, and we suspect that this destruction contributed to an abrupt shift of power and organized society to East Java in 928 A.D. Other temples sites, though, were occupied by "caretakers" for several centuries longer. (4) A partial collapse of New Merapi occurred 14C y B.P. Eruptions ~700-800 14C y B.P. (12-14th century A.D.) deposited ash on the floors of (still-occupied?) Candi Sambisari and Candi Kedulan. We speculate but cannot prove that these eruptions were triggered by (the same?) partial collapse of New Merapi, and that the eruptions, in turn, ended "caretaker" occupation at Candi Sambisari and Candi Kedulan. A new or raised Lake Borobudur also existed during part or all of the 12-14th centuries, probably impounded by deposits from Merapi. (5) Relatively benign lava-dome extrusion and dome-collapse pyroclastic flows have dominated activity of the 20th century, but explosive eruptions much larger than any of this century have occurred many times during Merapi's history, most recently during the 19th century. Are the relatively small eruptions of the 20th century a new style of open-vent, less hazardous activity that will persist for the foreseeable future? Or, alternatively, are they merely low-level "background" activity that could be interrupted upon relatively short notice by much larger explosive eruptions? The geologic record suggests the latter, which would place several hundred thousand people at risk. We know of no reliable method to forecast when an explosive eruption will interrupt the present interval of low-level activity. This conclusion has important implications for hazard evaluation.

Volatile contents of magmas from the Deccan and Columbia River provinces: implications for atmospheric gas release from flood basalt eruptions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Self, S.; Blake, S.; Sharma, K.; Widdowson, M.

2008-12-01

Sulphur (S) and chlorine (Cl) contents of magmas from the Mesozoic Deccan basalt province have been measured directly on rare, preserved glass inclusions within crystals and on glassy selvages in these ancient lava flows (Self et al., 2008). Lava flows of the Deccan Traps, India, were emplaced around 66-65 Ma ago. S and Cl concentrations range from high values of ~ 1400 ppm S and 500 ppm Cl in inclusions down to a few hundred ppm in lava selvages. The data indicate that the basaltic magmas of certain (and by implication, many) Deccan eruptions would have emitted up to 0.15 wt % SO2 and up to 0.03 wt % HCl, using an approach that accounts for the variable degree of melt evolution. Such values imply atmospheric releases of ~ 4 Tg of SO2 (and 0.8 Tg HCl) per cubic kilometer (km) of basaltic lava erupted, with most of this being released above the vents. Although eruptive volumes of individual Deccan flood basalt lava fields are not known, the SO2 masses released are indicated to be around 4000 Tg for a 1000 cubic km eruption. Similar, to slightly higher, values for S and Cl have been recently obtained by the same method on two other lava flow fields besides the already-studied Roza lava (Thordarson and Self, 1996) from the 15 Ma Columbia River flood basalt province (CRB) in the Pacific NW of the USA. Volumes of individual eruptive units are known for the CRB (those studied are from 1300-2600 cubic km) and it can be shown that the studied eruptions released SO2 masses in the range 8,000 to 12000 Tg, depending upon flow-field volume. In some cases, the vent areas for these eruptions can be explored. Understanding the eruptive style indicated by proximal deposits will help in future modeling of the atmospheric behavior of the eruption columns, and in heights attained. These results provide a solid basis for interpretation and modeling of the environmental impact of gas releases from past flood basalt activity, which has long been assumed to have been severe. The significance of flood basalt volcanism is that the erupted volumes, and hence the potential environmental pollution caused by the gases released, were immense on a scale compared to smaller-scale historic and Quaternary basaltic eruptive activity.

Excess mortality in Europe following a future Laki-style Icelandic eruption

PubMed Central

Schmidt, Anja; Ostro, Bart; Carslaw, Kenneth S.; Wilson, Marjorie; Thordarson, Thorvaldur; Mann, Graham W.; Simmons, Adrian J.

2011-01-01

Historical records show that the A.D. 1783–1784 Laki eruption in Iceland caused severe environmental stress and posed a health hazard far beyond the borders of Iceland. Given the reasonable likelihood of such an event recurring, it is important to assess the scale on which a future eruption could impact society. We quantify the potential health effects caused by an increase in air pollution during a future Laki-style eruption using a global aerosol model together with concentration-response functions derived from current epidemiological studies. The concentration of particulate matter with diameters smaller than 2.5 µm is predicted to double across central, western, and northern Europe during the first 3 mo of the eruption. Over land areas of Europe, the current World Health Organization 24-h air quality guideline for particulate matter with diameters smaller than 2.5 µm is exceeded an additional 36 d on average over the course of the eruption. Based on the changes in particulate air pollution, we estimate that approximately 142,000 additional cardiopulmonary fatalities (with a 95% confidence interval of 52,000–228,000) could occur in Europe. In terms of air pollution, such a volcanic eruption would therefore be a severe health hazard, increasing excess mortality in Europe on a scale that likely exceeds excess mortality due to seasonal influenza. PMID:21930954

Will Teide erupt again?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marti, Joan; Geyer, Adelina

2016-04-01

The quantification of hazard in volcanic systems characterised by long repose period is difficult because the lack of knowledge of the past volcanic history and also because in many cases volcanism is not perceived as a potential problem, being only regarded as an attraction for tourism or a source of economic benefit, thus hiding the need to conduct hazard assessment. Teide, in the island of Tenerife (Canary Islands), is not an exception to this general rule and, despite being one of the largest composite volcanoes in the World, it is generally considered as a non-active volcano by population, visitors and even by some scientists. However, geological and geophysical evidence, including a large diversity of monitoring signals recorded during last decades, as well as a simple comparison with similar volcanoes that have erupted in recent times after hundreds or even thousands of years of quiescence, recommend to consider Teide as an active volcano and to take the necessary precaution in an island with nearly one million of permanent inhabitants and nearly 5 millions of visitors per year. What is the potential of Teide to erupt again? is the question that relies behind the fact of considering it as active, and that needs to be answered first. Based on the current volcanological, petrological and geophysical knowledge We propose a conceptual model on the magma recharge mechanisms, structure of the plumbing system, and eruption triggers and dynamics of Teide volcano that helps to understand its behaviour and to anticipate future activity. Ramón y Cajal contract (RYC-2012-11024)

Stochastic Modeling of Past Volcanic Crises

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woo, Gordon

2018-01-01

The statistical foundation of disaster risk analysis is past experience. From a scientific perspective, history is just one realization of what might have happened, given the randomness and chaotic dynamics of Nature. Stochastic analysis of the past is an exploratory exercise in counterfactual history, considering alternative possible scenarios. In particular, the dynamic perturbations that might have transitioned a volcano from an unrest to an eruptive state need to be considered. The stochastic modeling of past volcanic crises leads to estimates of eruption probability that can illuminate historical volcanic crisis decisions. It can also inform future economic risk management decisions in regions where there has been some volcanic unrest, but no actual eruption for at least hundreds of years. Furthermore, the availability of a library of past eruption probabilities would provide benchmark support for estimates of eruption probability in future volcanic crises.

The length of channelized lava flows: Insight from the 1859 eruption of Mauna Loa Volcano, Hawai‘i

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riker, Jenny M.; Cashman, Katharine V.; Kauahikaua, James P.; Montierth, Charlene M.

2009-06-01

The 1859 eruption of Mauna Loa Volcano, Hawai'i, produced paired 'a'ā and pāhoehoe flows of exceptional length (51 km). The 'a'ā flow field is distinguished by a long (> 36 km) and well-defined pāhoehoe-lined channel, indicating that channelized lava remained fluid to great distances from the vent. The 1859 eruption was further unusual in initiating at a radial vent on the volcano's northwest flank, instead of along the well-defined rift zone that has been the source of most historic activity. As such, it presents an opportunity both to examine controls on the emplacement of long lava channels and to assess hazards posed by future flank eruptions of Mauna Loa. Here we combine evidence from historical chronicles with analysis of bulk compositions, glass geothermometry, and microlite textures of samples collected along the 1859 lava flows to constrain eruption and flow emplacement conditions. The bulk compositions of samples from the 'a'ā and pāhoehoe flow fields are bimodally distributed and indicate tapping of two discrete magma bodies during eruption. Samples from the pāhoehoe flow field have bulk compositions similar to those of historically-erupted lavas (< 8 wt.% MgO); lava that fed the 'a'ā channel is more primitive (> 8 wt.% MgO), nearly aphyric, and was erupted at high temperatures (1194-1216 °C). We suggest that the physical properties of proximal channel-fed lava (i.e., high-temperature, low crystallinity, and low bulk viscosity) promoted both rapid flow advance and development of long pāhoehoe-lined channels. Critical for the latter was the large temperature decrease (~ 50 °C) required to reach the point at which plagioclase and pyroxene started to crystallize; the importance of phase constraints are emphasized by our difficulty in replicating patterns of cooling and crystallization recorded by high-temperature field samples using common models of flow emplacement. Placement of the 1859 eruption within the context of historic activity at Mauna Loa suggests that the formation of radial vents and eruptions of high-temperature magma may not only be linked, but may also be a consequence of periods of high magma supply (e.g., 1843-1877). Flank eruptions could therefore warrant special consideration in models and hazard mitigation efforts.

Potential impacts of tephra fallout from a large-scale explosive eruption at Sakurajima volcano, Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biass, S.; Todde, A.; Cioni, R.; Pistolesi, M.; Geshi, N.; Bonadonna, C.

2017-10-01

We present an exposure analysis of infrastructure and lifeline to tephra fallout for a future large-scale explosive eruption of Sakurajima volcano. An eruption scenario is identified based on the field characterization of the last subplinian eruption at Sakurajima and a review of reports of the eruptions that occurred in the past six centuries. A scenario-based probabilistic hazard assessment is performed using the Tephra2 model, considering various eruption durations to reflect complex eruptive sequences of all considered reference eruptions. A quantitative exposure analysis of infrastructures and lifelines is presented primarily using open-access data. The post-event impact assessment of Magill et al. (Earth Planets Space 65:677-698, 2013) after the 2011 VEI 2 eruption of Shinmoedake is used to discuss the vulnerability and the resilience of infrastructures during a future large eruption of Sakurajima. Results indicate a main eastward dispersal, with longer eruption durations increasing the probability of tephra accumulation in proximal areas and reducing it in distal areas. The exposure analysis reveals that 2300 km of road network, 18 km2 of urban area, and 306 km2 of agricultural land have a 50% probability of being affected by an accumulation of tephra of 1 kg/m2. A simple qualitative exposure analysis suggests that the municipalities of Kagoshima, Kanoya, and Tarumizu are the most likely to suffer impacts. Finally, the 2011 VEI 2 eruption of Shinmoedake demonstrated that the already implemented mitigation strategies have increased resilience and improved recovery of affected infrastructures. Nevertheless, the extent to which these mitigation actions will perform during the VEI 4 eruption presented here is unclear and our hazard assessment points to possible damages on the Sakurajima peninsula and the neighboring municipality of Tarumizu.

Persistent activity and violent strombolian eruptions at Vesuvius between 1631 and 1944

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scandone, Roberto; Giacomelli, Lisetta; Speranza, Francesca Fattori

2008-03-01

During the period 1631-1944, Vesuvius was in persistent activity with alternating mild strombolian explosions, quiet effusive eruptions, and violent strombolian eruptions. The major difference between the predominant style of activity and the violent strombolian stages is the effusion rate. The lava effusion rate during major eruptions was in the range 20-100 m 3/s, higher than during mild activity and quiet effusion (0.1-1 m 3/s). The products erupted during the mild activity and major paroxysms have different degree of crystallization. Highly porphyritic lava flows are slowly erupted during years-long period of mild activity. This activity is fed by a magma accumulating at shallow depth within the volcanic edifice. Conversely, during the major paroxysms, a fast lava flow precedes the eruption of a volatile-rich, crystal-poor magma. We show that the more energetic eruptions are fed by episodic, multiple arrival of discrete batches of magma rising faster and not degassing during the ascent. The rapidly ascending magma pushes up the liquid residing in the shallow reservoir and eventually reaches the surface with its full complement of volatiles, producing kilometer-high lava fountains. Rapid drainage of the shallow reservoir occasionally caused small caldera collapses. The major eruptions act to unplug the upper part of the feeding system, erupting the cooling and crystallizing magma. This pattern of activity lasted for 313 y, but with a progressive decrease in the number of more energetic eruptions. As a consequence, a cooling plug blocked the volcano until it eventually prevented the eruption of new magma. The yearly probability of having at least one violent strombolian eruption has decreased from 0.12 to 0.10 from 1944 to 2007, but episodic seismic crises since 1979 may be indicative of new episodic intrusions of magma batches.

The case of the 1981 eruption of Mount Etna: An example of very fast moving lava flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coltelli, Mauro; Marsella, Maria; Proietti, Cristina; Scifoni, Silvia

2012-01-01

Mount Etna despite being an extremely active volcano which, during the last 400 years, has produced many lava flow flank eruptions has rarely threatened or damaged populated areas. The reconstruction of the temporal evolution of potentially hazardous flank eruptions represents a useful contribution to reducing the impact of future eruptions by and analyzing actions to be taken for protecting sensitive areas. In this work, we quantitatively reconstructed the evolution of the 1981 lava flow field of Mt Etna, which threatened the town of Randazzo. This reconstruction was used to evaluate the cumulated volume, the time averaged discharge rate trend and to estimate its maximum value. The analysis was conducted by comparing pre- and post-eruption topographic surfaces, extracted by processing historical photogrammetric data sets and by utilizing the eruption chronology to establish the lava flow front positions at different times. An unusually high discharge rate (for Etna) of 640 m3/s was obtained, which corresponds well with the very fast advance rate observed for the main lava flow. A comparison with other volcanoes, presenting high discharge rate, was proposed for finding a clue to unveil the 1981 Etna eruptive mechanism. A model was presented to explain the high discharge rate, which includes an additional contribution to the lava discharge caused by the interception of a shallow magma reservoir by a dike rising from depth and the subsequent emptying of the reservoir.

Digital Data for Volcano Hazards from Mount Rainier, Washington, Revised 1998

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schilling, S.P.; Doelger, S.; Hoblitt, R.P.; Walder, J.S.; Driedger, C.L.; Scott, K.M.; Pringle, P.T.; Vallance, J.W.

2008-01-01

Mount Rainier at 4393 meters (14,410 feet) is the highest peak in the Cascade Range; a dormant volcano having glacier ice that exceeds that of any other mountain in the conterminous United States. This tremendous mass of rock and ice, in combination with great topographic relief, poses a variety of geologic hazards, both during inevitable future eruptions and during the intervening periods of repose. The volcano's past behavior is the best guide to possible future hazards. The written history (about A.D. 1820) of Mount Rainier includes one or two small eruptions, several small debris avalanches, and many small lahars (debris flows originating on a volcano). In addition, prehistoric deposits record the types, magnitudes, and frequencies of other events, and areas that were affected. Mount Rainier deposits produced since the latest ice age (approximately during the past 10,000 years) are well preserved. Studies of these deposits indicate we should anticipate potential hazards in the future. Some phenomena only occur during eruptions such as tephra falls, pyroclastic flows and surges, ballistic projectiles, and lava flows while others may occur without eruptive activity such as debris avalanches, lahars, and floods. The five geographic information system (GIS) volcano hazard data layers used to produce the Mount Rainier volcano hazard map in USGS Open-File Report 98-428 (Hoblitt and others, 1998) are included in this data set. Case 1, case 2, and case 3 layers were delineated by scientists at the Cascades Volcano Observatory and depict various lahar innundation zones around the mountain. Two additional layers delineate areas that may be affected by post-lahar sedimentation (postlahar layer) and pyroclastic flows (pyroclastic layer).

Are local communities prepared to face a future volcanic emergency at Vesuvius?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carlino, S.; Somma, R.; Mayberry, G. C.

2009-04-01

The Vesuvius represents, undoubtedly, the icon of volcanic threats, since more than 600,000 people live very close to the volcano. This image is strengthened by the presence of the archaeological ruins of Pompeii and Herculaneum, buried by the 79 A.D. plinian eruption, testifying nowadays the highly destructive impact on humans, buildings and environments. Nevertheless, many young people live in the Vesuvian area show an inadequate preparedness to face the next eruption. This is inferred by the results of a multiple choice questionnaire, distributed to 400 high-school students in three municipalities located close to the volcano during the 2007. The questionnaire was aimed to understand the level of risk perception and preparedness of at-risk communities during the current quiescent period. The interviewed students show high levels of fear, poor perceived ability to protect themselves from the effects of a future eruption, and insufficient knowledge of the National Emergency Plan for Vesuvian Area (NEPVA). This result suggests that, during a future eruption of Vesuvius, there may not be enough time to educate the large number of people living near the volcano about how to appropriately respond. The lack of knowledge about NEPVA is a sign of the absence of well-tested communication strategies and effective information dissemination in the study area. This lack of knowledge also means there is little interest in participating in risk-reduction activities. The inadequate risk education and preparedness of respondents implies that a strong effort is needed to improve communication strategies in order to facilitate successful evacuations. Therefore, it is important to take advantage of the present period of quiescence at Vesuvius to increase the risk perception of youth in local communities. In the absence of adequate preparedness measures, an evacuation could become "enforced" or even worse, a "failure."

The A.D. 79 eruption as a future explosive scenario in the Vesuvian area: evaluation of associated risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lirer, Lucio; Munno, Rosalba; Postiglione, Immacolata; Vinci, Anna; Vitelli, Livia

Due to the lack of an effective policy of planning and prevention, over the past decades the area around Mt. Vesuvio has undergone a steady increase in population and uncontrolled housing development. Consequently, it has become one of the most hazardous volcanic areas in the world. In order to mitigate the damage that the impact of an explosive event would cause in the area, the Department of Civil Defense has worked out an Emergency Management Plan using the A.D. 1631 subplinian eruption as the most probable short-term event. However, from 25 000 years B.P. to present, the activity of the Somma-Vesuvio volcano has shown a sequence of eight eruptive cycles, which always began with a strong plinian eruption. In this paper we utilize the A.D. 79 eruption as an example of a potential large explosive eruption that might occur again at Vesuvio. A detailed tephrostratigraphic analysis of the eruption products was processed by a multivariate statistical analysis. This analysis proved useful for identifying marker layers in the sequences, thus allowing the recognition of some major phases of synchronous deposition and hence the definition of the chronological and spatial evolution of the eruption. By combining this reconstruction with land-use maps, a scenario is proposed with time intervals in the eruptive sequence similar to those reported in Pliny's letter. Thus, it was calculated that, after 7h from the start of the eruption, a total area of approximately 300km2 would be covered with the eruption products. In the following 11h, a total area of approximately 500km2 would be involved. The third and last phase of deposition would not cause significant variation in the total area involved, but it would bring about an increase in the thickness of the pyroclastic deposits in the perivolcanic area.

Lava Flow Hazard Assessment, as of August 2007, for Kilauea East Rift Zone Eruptions, Hawai`i Island

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kauahikaua, Jim

2007-01-01

The most recent episode in the ongoing Pu'u 'O'o-Kupaianaha eruption of Kilauea Volcano is currently producing lava flows north of the east rift zone. Although they pose no immediate threat to communities, changes in flow behavior could conceivably cause future flows to advance downrift and impact communities thus far unaffected. This report reviews lava flow hazards in the Puna District and discusses the potential hazards posed by the recent change in activity. Members of the public are advised to increase their general awareness of these hazards and stay up-to-date on current conditions.

Constraints on the detection of cryovolcanic plumes on Europa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quick, Lynnae C.; Barnouin, Olivier S.; Prockter, Louise M.; Patterson, G. Wesley

2013-09-01

Surface venting is a common occurrence on several outer solar system satellites. Spacecraft have observed plumes erupting from the geologically young surfaces of Io, Triton and Enceladus. Europa also has a relatively young surface and previous studies have suggested that cryovolcanic eruptions may be responsible for the production of low-albedo deposits surrounding lenticulae and along triple band margins and lineae. Here, we have used the projected thicknesses of these deposits as constraints to determine the lifetimes of detectable cryovolcanic plumes that may have emplaced them. In an effort to explore the feasibility of detection of the particle component of plumes by spacecraft cameras operating at visible wavelengths, we present a conservative model to estimate plume characteristics such as height, eruption velocity, and optical depth under a variety of conditions. We find that cryovolcanic plumes on Europa are likely to be fairly small in stature with heights between 2.5 and 26 km, and eruption velocities between 81 and 261 m/s, respectively. Under these conditions and assuming that plumes are products of steady eruptions with particle radii of 0.5 μm, our model suggests that easily detectable plumes will have optical depths, τ, greater than or equal to 0.04, and that their lifetimes may be no more than 300,000 years. Plume detection may be possible if high phase angle limb observations and/or stereo imaging of the surface are undertaken in areas where eruptive activity is likely to occur. Cameras with imaging resolutions greater than 50 m/pixel should be used to make all observations. Future missions could employ the results of our model in searches for plume activity at Europa.

Volcano hazards program in the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tilling, R.I.; Bailey, R.A.

1985-01-01

Volcano monitoring and volcanic-hazards studies have received greatly increased attention in the United States in the past few years. Before 1980, the Volcanic Hazards Program was primarily focused on the active volcanoes of Kilauea and Mauna Loa, Hawaii, which have been monitored continuously since 1912 by the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory. After the reawakening and catastrophic eruption of Mount St. Helens in 1980, the program was substantially expanded as the government and general public became aware of the potential for eruptions and associated hazards within the conterminous United States. Integrated components of the expanded program include: volcanic-hazards assessment; volcano monitoring; fundamental research; and, in concert with federal, state, and local authorities, emergency-response planning. In 1980 the David A. Johnston Cascades Volcano Observatory was established in Vancouver, Washington, to systematically monitor the continuing activity of Mount St. Helens, and to acquire baseline data for monitoring the other, presently quiescent, but potentially dangerous Cascade volcanoes in the Pacific Northwest. Since June 1980, all of the eruptions of Mount St. Helens have been predicted successfully on the basis of seismic and geodetic monitoring. The largest volcanic eruptions, but the least probable statistically, that pose a threat to western conterminous United States are those from the large Pleistocene-Holocene volcanic systems, such as Long Valley caldera (California) and Yellowstone caldera (Wyoming), which are underlain by large magma chambers still potentially capable of producing catastrophic caldera-forming eruptions. In order to become better prepared for possible future hazards associated with such historically unpecedented events, detailed studies of these, and similar, large volcanic systems should be intensified to gain better insight into caldera-forming processes and to recognize, if possible, the precursors of caldera-forming eruptions. ?? 1985.

Deaths and injuries in the eruption of Galeras Volcano, Colombia, 14 January 1993

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baxter, Peter J.; Gresham, Austin

1997-05-01

Six volcanologists and three tourists were killed in the crater of Galeras Volcano, Colombia, when it erupted without warning. The scientists were attending the United Nations International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction Workshop which had been convened to improve monitoring, research and disaster mitigation at Galeras, at the time the most active and one of the most hazardous volcanoes in South America. Information on the events surrounding the eruption was obtained by sending a questionnaire to twelve scientists who had been inside the caldera at the time of the eruption or who had assisted in the search and rescue operation. The autopsy reports on the five corpses, and the few pieces of equipment and clothing retrieved from the crater area, were also studied. The main causes of death and injury were the forces at the eruptive vent and the bombardment by hot rocks ejected in the first 15 min of the eruption, ranging from blocks over 1 m in size to pea-sized lapilli which fell last. Some conclusions can be drawn for the future safety of volcanologists working in craters at high altitude. Hard hats would protect against concussion from blows to the head during escape from the danger area, and a lightweight, heat-resistant and water-repellent coverall would limit the skin burns and the risk of clothing being ignited from contact with incandescent, falling ejecta. The coverall could also be life saving by protecting immobilised casualties from hypothermia due to the rain and wind whilst waiting to be rescued, especially as the volcanic activity, cloud cover or nightfall could curtail rescue efforts. Work in hazardous craters should be strictly limited to essential tasks and periods of good visibility, and a climbing team should leave the area at least four hours before nightfall in case rescue is needed. Tourists must be warned against visiting active crater areas.

Eruptions of Hawaiian volcanoes - Past, present, and future

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tilling, Robert I.; Heliker, Christina; Swanson, Donald A.

2010-01-01

Viewing an erupting volcano is a memorable experience, one that has inspired fear, superstition, worship, curiosity, and fascination since before the dawn of civilization. In modern times, volcanic phenomena have attracted intense scientific interest, because they provide the key to understanding processes that have created and shaped more than 80 percent of the Earth's surface. The active Hawaiian volcanoes have received special attention worldwide because of their frequent spectacular eruptions, which often can be viewed and studied with relative ease and safety. In January 1987, the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO), located on the rim of Kilauea Volcano, celebrated its 75th Anniversary. In honor of HVO's Diamond Jubilee, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) published Professional Paper 1350 (see list of Selected Readings, page 57), a comprehensive summary of the many studies on Hawaiian volcanism by USGS and other scientists through the mid-1980s. Drawing from the wealth of data contained in that volume, the USGS also published in 1987 the original edition of this general-interest booklet, focusing on selected aspects of the eruptive history, style, and products of two of Hawai'i's active volcanoes, Kilauea and Mauna Loa. This revised edition of the booklet-spurred by the approaching Centennial of HVO in January 2012-summarizes new information gained since the January 1983 onset of Kilauea's Pu'u 'O'o-Kupaianaha eruption, which has continued essentially nonstop through 2010 and shows no signs of letup. It also includes description of Kilauea's summit activity within Halema'uma'u Crater, which began in mid-March 2008 and continues as of this writing (late 2010). This general-interest booklet is a companion to the one on Mount St. Helens Volcano first published in 1984 and revised in 1990 (see Selected Readings). Together, these publications illustrate the contrast between the two main types of volcanoes: shield volcanoes, such as those in Hawai'i, which generally are nonexplosive; and composite volcanoes, such as Mount St. Helens in the Cascade Range, which are renowned for their explosive eruptions.

The longevity of lava dome eruptions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wolpert, Robert L.; Ogburn, Sarah E.; Calder, Eliza S.

2016-02-01

Understanding the duration of past, ongoing, and future volcanic eruptions is an important scientific goal and a key societal need. We present a new methodology for forecasting the duration of ongoing and future lava dome eruptions based on a database (DomeHaz) recently compiled by the authors. The database includes duration and composition for 177 such eruptions, with "eruption" defined as the period encompassing individual episodes of dome growth along with associated quiescent periods during which extrusion pauses but unrest continues. In a key finding, we show that probability distributions for dome eruption durations are both heavy tailed and composition dependent. We construct objective Bayesian statistical models featuring heavy-tailed Generalized Pareto distributions with composition-specific parameters to make forecasts about the durations of new and ongoing eruptions that depend on both eruption duration to date and composition. Our Bayesian predictive distributions reflect both uncertainty about model parameter values (epistemic uncertainty) and the natural variability of the geologic processes (aleatoric uncertainty). The results are illustrated by presenting likely trajectories for 14 dome-building eruptions ongoing in 2015. Full representation of the uncertainty is presented for two key eruptions, Soufriére Hills Volcano in Montserrat (10-139 years, median 35 years) and Sinabung, Indonesia (1-17 years, median 4 years). Uncertainties are high but, importantly, quantifiable. This work provides for the first time a quantitative and transferable method and rationale on which to base long-term planning decisions for lava dome-forming volcanoes, with wide potential use and transferability to forecasts of other types of eruptions and other adverse events across the geohazard spectrum.

Mount Pinatubo, Philippine Islands as seen from STS-59

NASA Image and Video Library

1994-04-10

STS059-L14-170 (9-20 April 1994) --- Orient with the sea at the left. Then Subic Bay is at the lower left corner, and Clark Air Force Base (abandoned after the eruption) is to the lower right of the volcano. A turquoise lake occupies the caldera just below the center of the photograph. Mount Pinatubo erupted in June, 1991 after several hundred years of quiescence. Eruptive activity has nearly ceased, but every torrential rain in this monsoonal climate causes renewed mud flows of a viscous slurry composed of volcanic ash and pumice. Shuttle crews have been photographing the mountain at every opportunity, to add documentation to unmanned-satellite, aerial, and ground-based observations of changes. SRL scientists will use the excellent radar imagery obtained during STS-59 to help discriminate among different kinds of volcanic material, and to extend their observations to other volcanoes around the world using future, perhaps unmanned, radar satellites. Linhof photograph.

Preliminary Volcano-Hazard Assessment for Redoubt Volcano, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Waythomas, Christopher F.; Dorava, Joseph M.; Miller, Thomas P.; Neal, Christina A.; McGimsey, Robert G.

1997-01-01

Redoubt Volcano is a stratovolcano located within a few hundred kilometers of more than half of the population of Alaska. This volcano has erupted explosively at least six times since historical observations began in 1778. The most recent eruption occurred in 1989-90 and similar eruptions can be expected in the future. The early part of the 1989-90 eruption was characterized by explosive emission of substantial volumes of volcanic ash to altitudes greater than 12 kilometers above sea level and widespread flooding of the Drift River valley. Later, the eruption became less violent, as developing lava domes collapsed, forming short-lived pyroclastic flows associated with low-level ash emission. Clouds of volcanic ash had significant effects on air travel as they drifted across Alaska, over Canada, and over parts of the conterminous United States causing damage to jet aircraft. Economic hardships were encountered by the people of south-central Alaska as a result of ash fallout. Based on new information gained from studies of the 1989-90 eruption, an updated assessment of the principal volcanic hazards is now possible. Volcanic hazards from a future eruption of Redoubt Volcano require public awareness and planning so that risks to life and property are reduced as much as possible.

Processes Influencing the Timing and Volume of Eruptions From the Youngest Supervolcano on Earth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, C. J. N.; Barker, S. J.; Morgan, D. J.; Rowland, J. V.; Schipper, I.

2015-12-01

In their stratigraphic records, silicic caldera volcanoes display wide ranges of eruptive styles and volumes. However, relationships between frequency and magnitude are often complex, and the forecasting of future activity is inherently problematic. Taupo volcano, New Zealand, provides a unique opportunity to investigate eruptive histories from a hyperactive, large silicic magmatic system with eruptive volumes that span 3-4 orders of magnitude, and show no clear relationships with the repose period. Taupo hosted the world's most recent supereruption at 25.4 ka, which discharged 530 km3 of magma in the episodic 10-phase Oruanui event. Only 5 kyr later, Taupo revived, with 3 dacitic eruptions from 21.5-17 ka and 25 rhyolite eruptions from 12-1.7 ka. Here we use trends in whole rock, glass and mineral chemistry to show how the magma system reestablished following the Oruanui event, and to consider what processes influence the state of the modern volcano. The post-Oruanui dacites reflect the first products of the rebuilding silicic magma system, as most of the Oruanui mush was reconfigured or significantly modified in composition following thermal fluxing accompanying post-caldera collapse readjustment. Compositional variations within the younger rhyolites at <12 ka reflect fine-scale temporal changes in mineral phase stability, closely linked to the development, stabilization and maturation of a new silicic mush system. For the most recent eruptions, the system underwent destabilization, resulting in increased volumes of melt extraction from the silicic mush. Orthopyroxene Fe-Mg diffusion timescales indicate that the onset of rapid heating and priming of the silicic mush occurred <100 years prior to the <2.15 ka eruptions, with subsequent melt accumulation occurring in only decades. The largest post-Oruanui eruption at 232 AD culminated from elevated mafic magma supply to the silicic mush pile, rapid melt accumulation and high differential tectonic stress build up, leading to one of the largest and most violent Holocene eruptions globally. The latest eruptions of Taupo highlight the multiple controls on the timing of eruptions, and demonstrate how the magmatic system can rapidly change behavior to generate large eruptible melt bodies on timescales of direct relevance to humans and monitoring initiatives.

Analyses of Etna Eruptive Activity From 18th Century and Characterization of Flank Eruptions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

del Carlo, P.; Branca, S.; Coltelli, M.

2003-12-01

Etna explosive activity has usually been considered subordinate with respect to the effusive eruptions. Nevertheless, in the last decade and overall after the 2001 and 2002 flank eruptions, explosive activity has drawn the attention of the scientific and politic communities owing to the damages that the long-lasting ash fall caused to Sicily's economy. We analyzed the eruptions from the 18th century to find some analogous behavior of Etna in the past. A study of the Etna historical record (Branca and Del Carlo, 2003) evidenced that after the 1727 eruption, there are no more errors in the attribution of the year of the eruption. Furthermore from this time on, the scientific quality of the chronicles allowed us to obtain volcanological information and to estimate the magnitude of the major explosive events. The main goal of this work was to characterize the different typologies of Etna eruptions in the last three centuries. Meanwhile, we have tried to find the possible relationship between the two kinds of activity (explosive and effusive) in order to understand the complexity of the eruptive phenomena and define the short-term behavior of Etna. On the base of the predominance of the eruptive typology (effusive or explosive) we have classified the flank eruptions in three classes: i) Type 1: almost purely effusive; ii) Type 2: the intensity of explosive activity comparable with the effusive; iii) Type 3: almost purely explosive with minor lava effusion (only the 1763 La Montagnola and 2002 eruptions belong to this class). Long-lasting explosive activity is produced by flank eruptions with continuous ash emission and prolonged fallout on the flanks (e.g. 1763, 1811, 1852-53, 1886, 1892, 2001 and 2002 eruptions). At summit craters continuous activity is weaker, whereas the strongest explosive eruptions are short-lived events. Furthermore, from the 18th to 20th century there were several years of intense and discontinuous summit explosive activity, from high strombolian to fire fountain. This activity produced abundant ash fall in the whole volcano area reaching the Calabria region and Malta Island. Generally, some of these periods preceded important flank eruptions. Concerning the occurrence of the higher magnitude explosive events, we observe that at least one subplinian eruption occurred both in the 18th and 19th centuries. In the 20th century the increased quality of the scientific reports has allowed to recognize 6 subplinian eruptions from summit craters.

Tephrostratigraphy of Changbaishan volcano, northeast China, since the mid-Holocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Chunqing; Liu, Jiaqi; You, Haitao; Nemeth, Karoly

2017-12-01

A detailed tephrostratigraphy of an active volcano is essential for evaluating its eruptive history, forecasting future eruptions and correlation with distal tephra records. Changbaishan volcano is known for its Millennium eruption (ME, AD 940s; VEI 7) and the ME tephra has been detected in Greenland ice cores ∼9000 km from the vent. However, the pre-Millennium (pre-ME) and post-Millennium (post-ME) eruptions are still poorly characterized. In this study, we present a detailed late Holocene eruptive sequence of Changbaishan volcano based on single glass shard compositions from tephra samples collected from around the caldera rim and flanks. Tephra ages are constrained by optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) and AMS 14C dates. Tephra from the mid-Holocene pre-ME eruption can be divided into two pyroclastic fall subunits, and it cannot be correlated with any known Changbaishan-sourced tephra recorded in the Japan Sea based on major element composition of glass shards, such as the B-J (Baegdusan-Japan Basin) and B-V (Baegdusan-Vladivostok-oki) tephras. ME pyroclastic fall deposits from the caldera rims and volcanic flanks can be correlated to the juvenile pumice lapilli or blocks within the pyroclastic density current (PDC) deposits deposited in the valleys around the volcano based on glass shard compositions. Our results indicate that the glass shard compositions of proximal ME tephra are more varied than previously thought and can be correlated with distal ME tephra. In addition, widely-dispersed mafic scoria was ejected by the ME Plinian column and deposited on the western and southern summits and the eastern flank of the volcano. Data for glass from post-ME eruptions, such as the historically-documented AD 1403, AD 1668 and AD 1702 eruptions, are reported here for the first time. Except for the ME, other Holocene eruptions, including pre-ME and post-ME eruptions, had the potential to form widely-distributed tephra layers around northeast Asia, and our dataset provides a proximal reference for tephra and cryptotephra studies in surrounding areas.

Insights into the Toba Super-Eruption using SEM Analysis of Ash Deposits

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gatti, E.; Achyuthan, H.; Durant, A. J.; Gibbard, P.; Mokhtar, S.; Oppenheimer, C.; Raj, R.; Shridar, A.

2010-12-01

The ~74 ka Youngest Toba Tuff (YTT) super-eruption of Toba volcano, Northern Sumatra, was the largest eruption of the Quaternary (magnitude M= 8.8) and injected massive quantities of volcanic gases and ash into the stratosphere. YTT deposits covered at least 40,000,000 km2 of Southeast Asia and are preserved in river valleys across peninsular India and Malaysia, and in deep-sea tephra layers in the Indian Ocean, Bay of Bengal and South China Sea. Initial studies hypothesized the eruption caused immediate and substantial global cooling during the ~ 1 kyr between Dansgaard-Oeschger events 19 and 20 which devastated ecosystems and hominid populations. A more recent review argues against severe post-YTT climatic deterioration and cannot find clear evidence for considerable impacts on ecosystems or bio-diversity. The determination of the eruptive parameters is crucial in this issue to document the eruption and understand the potential impacts from future super-volcanic eruptions. Volcanic ash deposits can offer dramatic insights into key eruptive parameters, including magnitude, duration and plume height. The composition and shape of volcanic ashes can be used to interpret physical properties of an erupting magma and tephra transport, while textural characteristics such as grain roughness and surface vescicularity can provide insights into degassing history, volatile content and explosive activity of the volcano. We present a stratigraphic and sedimentological analysis of YTT deposits in stratified contexts at three localities in India, at two sites in Peninsular Malaysia, and at several localities around Lake Toba and on Samosir Island, Sumatra. These sites offer excellent constraints on the spatial distribution of YTT deposits which can be used to infer dispersal directions of the cloud, and provide insights into environmental controls on preservation of tephra beds. The research aims at a systematic interpretation of the Toba tephra to understand the volcanic processes and environmental impacts of the largest known Quaternary volcanic eruption.

New geochemical insights into volcanic degassing.

PubMed

Edmonds, Marie

2008-12-28

Magma degassing plays a fundamental role in controlling the style of volcanic eruptions. Whether a volcanic eruption is explosive, or effusive, is of crucial importance to approximately 500 million people living in the shadow of hazardous volcanoes worldwide. Studies of how gases exsolve and separate from magma prior to and during eruptions have been given new impetus by the emergence of more accurate and automated methods to measure volatile species both as volcanic gases and dissolved in the glasses of erupted products. The composition of volcanic gases is dependent on a number of factors, the most important being magma composition and the depth of gas-melt segregation prior to eruption; this latter parameter has proved difficult to constrain in the past, yet is arguably the most critical for controlling eruptive style. Spectroscopic techniques operating in the infrared have proved to be of great value in measuring the composition of gases at high temporal resolution. Such methods, when used in tandem with microanalytical geochemical investigations of erupted products, are leading to better constraints on the depth at which gases are generated and separated from magma. A number of recent studies have focused on transitions between explosive and effusive activity and have led to a better understanding of gas-melt segregation at basaltic volcanoes. Other studies have focused on degassing during intermediate and silicic eruptions. Important new results include the recognition of fluxing by deep-derived gases, which buffer the amount of dissolved volatiles in the melt at shallow depths, and the observation of gas flow up permeable conduit wall shear zones, which may be the primary mechanism for gas loss at the cusp of the most explosive and unpredictable volcanic eruptions. In this paper, I review current and future directions in the field of geochemical studies of volcanic degassing processes and illustrate how the new insights are beginning to change the way in which we understand and classify volcanic eruptions.

Silicic central volcanoes as precursors to rift propagation: the Afar case

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lahitte, Pierre; Gillot, Pierre-Yves; Courtillot, Vincent

2003-02-01

The Afar depression is a triple junction characterised by thinned continental crust, where three rift systems meet (Red Sea, Gulf of Aden and East African Rift). About 100 recent K-Ar ages obtained on Plio-Pleistocene lavas [Lahitte et al., J. Geophys. Res. (2002) in press; Kidane et al., J. Geophys. Res. (2002) in press], complemented by new geomorphological interpretations, allow better understanding of the volcano-tectonic activity linked to rift propagation. In Central Afar, a significant spatial and temporal correlation is observed between the occurrence of silicic central volcanoes and the initiation of the successive phases of on-land propagation of the Red Sea and Aden rifts. Inside the Afar depression, at the scale of both a whole ridge and a small rift segment, silicic lavas are systematically erupted close to the location of a future rift segment and prior to the main extensive phase associated with fissural basaltic activity. Central silicic volcanoes therefore appear to be precursor features, and their locations underline the preferred direction of future rift propagation. Evolved volcanoes (and associated magma chambers) form zones of localised lithospheric weakness, which concentrate stress and guide the development of fractures in which fissural magmatism is next emplaced. Differentiated silicic lavas are erupted first. Then, as extension increases, basaltic magma directly erupts to the surface. This composite style of rifting, with volcanic and tectonic components, is a scaled-down equivalent of the continental break-up process at the largest scale.

Volcaniclastic stratigraphy of Gede Volcano, West Java, Indonesia: How it erupted and when

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Belousov, A.; Belousova, M.; Krimer, D.; Costa, F.; Prambada, O.; Zaennudin, A.

2015-08-01

Gede Volcano, West Java (Indonesia), is located 60 km south of Jakarta within one of the regions with highest population density in the world. Therefore, knowledge of its eruption history is necessary for hazard evaluation, because even a small eruption would have major societal and economic consequences. Here we report the results of the investigation of the stratigraphy of Gede (with the focus on its volcaniclastic deposits of Holocene age) and include 23 new radiocarbon dates. We have found that a major part of the volcanic edifice was formed in the Pleistocene when effusions of lavas of high-silica basalt dominated. During this period the volcano experienced large-scale lateral gravitational failure followed by complete reconstruction of the edifice, formation of the summit subsidence caldera and its partial refilling. After a repose period of > 30,000 years the volcanic activity resumed at the Pleistocene/Holocene boundary. In the Holocene the eruptions were dominantly explosive with magma compositions ranging from basaltic andesite to rhyodacite; many deposits show heterogeneity at the macroscopic hand specimen scale and also in the minerals, which indicates interactions between mafic (basaltic andesite) and silicic (rhyodacite) magmas. Significant eruptions of the volcano were relatively rare and of moderate violence (the highest VEI was 3-4; the largest volume of erupted pyroclasts 0.15 km3). There were 4 major Holocene eruptive episodes ca. 10,000, 4000, 1200, and 1000 yr BP. The volcanic plumes of these eruptions were not buoyant and most of the erupted products were transported in the form of highly concentrated valley-channelized pyroclastic flows. Voluminous lahars were common in the periods between the eruptions. The recent eruptive period of the volcano started approximately 800 years ago. It is characterized by frequent and weak VEI 1-2 explosive eruptions of Vulcanian type and rare small-volume extrusions of viscous lava. We estimate that during last 10,000 years, Gede erupted less than 0.3 km3 DRE (Dense Rock Equivalent) of magma. Such small productivity suggests that the likelihood of future large-volume (VEI ≥ 5) eruptions of the volcano is low, although moderately strong (VEI 3-4) explosive eruptions capable of depositing pyroclastic flows and lahars onto the NE foot of the volcano are more likely.

Forecasts and predictions of eruptive activity at Mount St. Helens, USA: 1975-1984

USGS Publications Warehouse

Swanson, D.A.; Casadevall, T.J.; Dzurisin, D.; Holcomb, R.T.; Newhall, C.G.; Malone, S.D.; Weaver, C.S.

1985-01-01

Public statements about volcanic activity at Mount St. Helens include factual statements, forecasts, and predictions. A factual statement describes current conditions but does not anticipate future events. A forecast is a comparatively imprecise statement of the time, place, and nature of expected activity. A prediction is a comparatively precise statement of the time, place, and ideally, the nature and size of impending activity. A prediction usually covers a shorter time period than a forecast and is generally based dominantly on interpretations and measurements of ongoing processes and secondarily on a projection of past history. The three types of statements grade from one to another, and distinctions are sometimes arbitrary. Forecasts and predictions at Mount St. Helens became increasingly precise from 1975 to 1982. Stratigraphic studies led to a long-range forecast in 1975 of renewed eruptive activity at Mount St. Helens, possibly before the end of the century. On the basis of seismic, geodetic and geologic data, general forecasts for a landslide and eruption were issued in April 1980, before the catastrophic blast and landslide on 18 May 1980. All extrusions except two from June 1980 to the end of 1984 were predicted on the basis of integrated geophysical, geochemical, and geologic monitoring. The two extrusions that were not predicted were preceded by explosions that removed a substantial part of the dome, reducing confining pressure and essentially short-circuiting the normal precursors. ?? 1985.

Predicting eruptions from precursory activity using remote sensing data hybridization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reath, K. A.; Ramsey, M. S.; Dehn, J.; Webley, P. W.

2016-07-01

Many volcanoes produce some level of precursory activity prior to an eruption. This activity may or may not be detected depending on the available monitoring technology. In certain cases, precursors such as thermal output can be interpreted to make forecasts about the time and magnitude of the impending eruption. Kamchatka (Russia) provides an ideal natural laboratory to study a wide variety of eruption styles and precursory activity prior to an eruption. At Bezymianny volcano for example, a clear increase in thermal activity commonly occurs before an eruption, which has allowed predictions to be made months ahead of time. Conversely, the eruption of Tolbachik volcano in 2012 produced no discernable thermal precursors before the large scale effusive eruption. However, most volcanoes fall between the extremes of consistently behaved and completely undetectable, which is the case with neighboring Kliuchevskoi volcano. This study tests the effectiveness of using thermal infrared (TIR) remote sensing to track volcanic thermal precursors using data from both the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) and Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) sensors. It focuses on three large eruptions that produced different levels and durations of effusive and explosive behavior at Kliuchevskoi. Before each of these eruptions, TIR spaceborne sensors detected thermal anomalies (i.e., pixels with brightness temperatures > 2 °C above the background temperature). High-temporal, low-spatial resolution (i.e., hours and 1 km) AVHRR data are ideal for detecting large thermal events occurring over shorter time scales, such as the hot material ejected following strombolian eruptions. In contrast, high-spatial, low-temporal resolution (i.e., days to weeks and 90 m) ASTER data enables the detection of much lower thermal activity; however, activity with a shorter duration will commonly be missed. ASTER and AVHRR data are combined to track low-level anomalies months prior to an eruption and higher-energy events prior to large eruptions to develop a monitoring approach for this eruption style. Results show that strombolian eruptions produce enough energy in the pre-eruptive phase to trigger an AVHRR detection. Paired with ASTER data, the results can be extended back in time to develop a precursory timeline, which captures subtle changes in volcanic activity that would commonly go unnoticed in a single data set. Although these precursors may be volcano and eruption specific, the now sixteen-year-old database from ASTER allows this methodology to be repeatable at other volcanoes to establish a quantitative precursory baseline, which would be an improvement over current eruption classifications.

The Optimization of Spatial, Spectral, and Temporal Resolution for Constraining Eruption Style on Earth and Io with Thermal Remote Sensing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davies, A. G.; Keszthelyi, L. P.; Harris, A. J.

2009-12-01

Volcanic eruptions on Io and Earth are monitored by a variety of thermal remote sensing instruments. While higher resolution data are always desirable, we have developed methodologies to constrain the style of volcanic eruption using low spatial, spectral, and temporal resolution data. For the volcanic moon Io, this is necessitated by the limits of spacecraft and Earth-based telescopic observations. Eruption style can be classified using the concept of "thermal signature" which focuses on the temporal evolution of thermal emission spectra [1]. We find that the ratio of the emission at 2 µm and 5 µm, and how this ratio changes temporally, is often diagnostic of effusive eruption style, even in low spatial resolution data [2]. Tests using ground-based thermal data for terrestrial “ground truth” cases show that this classification system is equally valid for Earth. A square meter of an active lava lake on Io looks very similar to a square meter of an active lava lake on Earth. The same goes for pahoehoe flows. This validation of “thermal signature” means that appropriate physical models can be selected to interpret the data. On Io, the scale of eruptions can utterly dwarf their terrestrial counterparts. “Outburst” eruptions, known to be caused by extensive lava fountaining, can radiate >1013 W. The smallest thermal anomalies detected on Io in thermal infrared data are still larger than any contemporaneous mafic volcanic activity on Earth. The large volumes of lava erupted on Io (e.g., >56 km3 at Pillan in 1997) are an expression of internal tidal heating. It may be that high compressive stresses in the lower lithosphere inhibit magma ascent, and so only relatively large volumes of magma can overcome this “stress barrier” and reach the surface. The results of the “thermal signature” analysis [2] can be used as an aid in the planning of future space-borne instruments that can be used for volcano monitoring on Io, as well as on Earth. This work was performed at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory-California Institute of Technology, under NASA contract, with support from the NASA Outer Planets Research Program. © 2009. All rights reserved. References: [1] Davies, A. G., 2007, Volcanism on Io - A Comparison with Earth, Cambridge University Press, 372 pages. [2] Davies, A. G., Keszthelyi L. P., and Harris, A. J. L., 2009, The Thermal Signature of Volcanic Eruptions on Io and Earth, JVGR, submitted.

Numerical modeling of a sub Plinian eruption at La Soufrière de Guadeloupe: implications for pyroclastic density currents hazard assessment.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Esposti Ongaro, Tomaso; Neri, Augusto; Komorowski, Jean-Christophe

2013-04-01

We present three-dimensional numerical simulations of a sub-Plinian eruptive scenario at La Soufrière de Guadeloupe, aimed at assessing the capability of pyroclastic density currents to reach the inhabited regions on the volcano slopes, in case of the future resumption of the explosive activity. The selected eruptive scenario is similar to that hypothesized for the 1530 a.D. eruption, but several eruptive conditions have been analyzed to account for different behaviours of the eruptive column and percentages of collapse. Numerical results describe, in 3D and in time, the formation, instability and partial collapse of the eruptive column, and the simultaneous formation of a convective plume and several branched pyroclastic density currents. The proximal volcano morphology, characterized by the presence of ancient caldera rims and the remnants of the old edifice, controls the areal distribution of the collapsed material and the paths of channelized flows along the incised topography. The analysis of the 3D runs suggests that partial collapse scenarios produce steeply stratified pyroclastic density currents, which are strongly controlled by the topography and whose propagation is likely driven by the dynamics of the dense, basal layer. Although vertical grid size still does not allow the resolution of the dynamics of such concentrated flows, preliminary georeferenced maps of pyroclastic density currents' hazardous actions (temperature and dynamic pressure) provide interesting and useful information which can serve as a basis for elaborating a quantitative framework for the assessment of their impact on vulnerable infrastructures, networks, and population.

Volcano-hazard zonation for San Vicente volcano, El Salvador

USGS Publications Warehouse

Major, J.J.; Schilling, S.P.; Pullinger, C.R.; Escobar, C.D.; Howell, M.M.

2001-01-01

San Vicente volcano, also known as Chichontepec, is one of many volcanoes along the volcanic arc in El Salvador. This composite volcano, located about 50 kilometers east of the capital city San Salvador, has a volume of about 130 cubic kilometers, rises to an altitude of about 2180 meters, and towers above major communities such as San Vicente, Tepetitan, Guadalupe, Zacatecoluca, and Tecoluca. In addition to the larger communities that surround the volcano, several smaller communities and coffee plantations are located on or around the flanks of the volcano, and major transportation routes are located near the lowermost southern and eastern flanks of the volcano. The population density and proximity around San Vicente volcano, as well as the proximity of major transportation routes, increase the risk that even small landslides or eruptions, likely to occur again, can have serious societal consequences. The eruptive history of San Vicente volcano is not well known, and there is no definitive record of historical eruptive activity. The last significant eruption occurred more than 1700 years ago, and perhaps long before permanent human habitation of the area. Nevertheless, this volcano has a very long history of repeated, and sometimes violent, eruptions, and at least once a large section of the volcano collapsed in a massive landslide. The oldest rocks associated with a volcanic center at San Vicente are more than 2 million years old. The volcano is composed of remnants of multiple eruptive centers that have migrated roughly eastward with time. Future eruptions of this volcano will pose substantial risk to surrounding communities.

Effects of megascale eruptions on Earth and Mars

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thordarson, T.; Rampino, M.; Keszthelyi, L.P.; Self, S.

2009-01-01

Volcanic features are common on geologically active earthlike planets. Megascale or "super" eruptions involving >1000 Gt of magma have occurred on both Earth and Mars in the geologically recent past, introducing prodigious volumes of ash and volcanic gases into the atmosphere. Here we discuss felsic (explosive) and mafi c (flood lava) supereruptions and their potential atmospheric and environmental effects on both planets. On Earth, felsic supereruptions recur on average about every 100-200,000 years and our present knowledge of the 73.5 ka Toba eruption implies that such events can have the potential to be catastrophic to human civilization. A future eruption of this type may require an unprecedented response from humankind to assure the continuation of civilization as we know it. Mafi c supereruptions have resulted in atmospheric injection of volcanic gases (especially SO2) and may have played a part in punctuating the history of life on Earth. The contrast between the more sustained effects of flood basalt eruptions (decades to centuries) and the near-instantaneous effects of large impacts (months to years) is worthy of more detailed study than has been completed to date. Products of mafi c supereruptions, signifi cantly larger than known from the geologic record on Earth, are well preserved on Mars. The volatile emissions from these eruptions most likely had global dispersal, but the effects may not have been outside what Mars endures even in the absence of volcanic eruptions. This is testament to the extreme variability of the current Martian atmosphere: situations that would be considered catastrophic on Earth are the norm on Mars. ?? 2009 The Geological Society of America.

Dueling Volcanoes: How Activity Levels At Kilauea Influence Eruptions At Mauna Loa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trusdell, F.

2011-12-01

The eruption of Kilauea at Pu`u `O`o is approaching its 29th anniversary. During this time, Mauna Loa has slowly inflated following its most recent eruption in 1984. This is Mauna Loa's longest inter-eruptive interval observed in HVO's 100 years of operation. When will the next eruption of Mauna Loa take place? Is the next eruption of Mauna Loa tied to the current activity at Kilauea? Historically, eruptive periods at Kilauea and Mauna Loa volcanoes appear to be inversely correlated. In the past, when Mauna Loa was exceptionally active, Kilauea Volcano was in repose, recovery, or in sustained lava lake activity. Swanson and co-workers (this meeting) have noted that explosive activity on Kilauea, albeit sporadic, was interspersed between episodes of effusive activity. Specifically, Swanson and co-workers note as explosive the time periods between 300 B.C.E.-1000 C.E and 1500-1800 C.E. They also point to evidence for low magma supply to Kilauea during these periods and few flank eruptions. During the former explosive period, Mauna Loa was exceedingly active, covering approximately 37% of its surface or 1882 km2, an area larger than Kilauea. This period is also marked by summit activity at Mauna Loa sustained for 300 years. In the 1500-1800 C.E. period, Mauna Loa was conspicuously active with 29 eruptions covering an area of 446 km2. In the late 19th and early 20th century, Kilauea was dominated by nearly continuous lava-lake activity. Meanwhile Mauna Loa was frequently active from 1843 C.E. to 1919 C.E., with 24 eruptions for an average repose time of 3.5 years. I propose that eruptive activity at one volcano may affect eruptions at the other, due to factors that impact magma supply, volcanic plumbing, and flank motion. This hypothesis is predicated on the notion that when the rift zones of Kilauea, and in turn its mobile south flank, are active, Mauna Loa's tendency to erupt is diminished. Kilauea's rift zones help drive the south flank seaward, in turn, as Mauna Loa inflates its flank is not buttressed on the southeast. Consequently, asymmetrical spreading occurs resulting in dilation of the shallow magma storage centers, which ultimately culminates in decreased magma pressure and therefore lessened ability to erupt. Whether or not this hypothesis is accurate, there is growing geologic evidence for inverse activity levels at both volcanoes. This hypothesis is readily testable and can have profound implications on how we monitor shield volcanoes, which impacts our ability to forecast eruptions, conduct hazard assessments, and risk analysis.

Analogue and numerical modelling in Volcanology: Development, evolution and future challenges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kavanagh, Janine; Annen, Catherine

2015-04-01

Since the inception of volcanology as a science, analogue modelling has been an important methodology to study the formation and evolution of the volcanic system. With the development of computing capacities numerical modelling has become a widely used tool to explore magmatic process quantitatively and try to predict eruptive behaviour. Processes of interest include the development and establishment of the volcanic plumbing system, the propagation of magma to the surface to feed eruptions, the construction of a volcanic edifice and the dynamics of eruptive processes. An important ultimate aim is to characterise and measure the experimental volcanic and magmatic phenomena, to inform and improve eruption forecasting for hazard assessments. In nature, volcanic activity is often unpredictable and in an environment that is highly changeable and forbidding. Volcanic or magmatic activity cannot be repeated at will and has many (often unconstrained) variables. The processes of interest are frequently hidden from view, for example occurring beneath the Earth's surface or within a pyroclastic flow or plume. The challenges of working in volcanic terrains and gathering 'real' volcano data mean that analogue and numerical models have gained significant importance as a method to study the geometrics, kinematics, and dynamics of volcano growth and eruption. A huge variety of analogue materials have been used in volcanic modelling, often bringing out the more creative side of the scientific mind. As with all models, the choice of appropriate materials and boundary conditions are critical for assessing the relevance and usefulness of the experimental results. Numerical simulation has proved a useful tool to test the physical plausibility of conceptual models and presents the advantage of being applicable at different scales. It is limited however in its predictive power by the number of free parameters needed to describe geological systems. In this special symposium we will attempt to review the use and significance of analogue and numerical modelling in volcanological research over the past century to the present day. We introduce some of the new techniques being developed through a multidisciplinary approach, and offer some perspectives on how these might be used to help shape the direction of future research in volcanology.

Late Holocene Eruptive History of Popocatepetl Volcano, Mexico: Implications for Future Hazards

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Abrams, M.

1995-01-01

Detailed mapping of the strata around the Popocatepetl Volcano in central Mexico indicates that there have been major eruptions every 1000 to 2000 years. The last two of these destroyed pre- Columbian cities in the area, and a similar level of eruption today might require evacuation of as many as 30 million people.

Crystal Zoning Constrains on the Processes and Time Scales Involved in Monogenetic Mafic Volcanism (Tenerife, Canary Islands)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Albert, H.; Costa Rodriguez, F.; Marti, J.

2014-12-01

Most of the historical eruptive activity in Tenerife has been relatively mafic and mildly-explosive monogenetic eruptions, and thus it seems that this activity is the most likely in the near future. Here we investigate the processes and time scales that lead to such eruptions with the aim to better interpret and plan for any possible unrest in the island. We focus on three historical eruptions: Siete Fuentes (December 31 1704-January 1705), Fasnia (January 5-January 13 1705) and Arafo (February 2-February 26 1705) issued from a 10 km long basaltic fissure eruption oriented N45E and covering an area of 10.4 km2. The erupted volume increases by 5-fold from the first to the last eruption. All magmas are tephritic, although the bulk-rock becomes more mafic with time due to accumulation of olivine with Cr-spinel inclusions, and clinopyroxene rather than to the appearance of a truly more primitive melt. Olivine core compositions of the three eruptions range between Fo79 and Fo87. Frequency histograms show three main populations: at Fo79-80, Fo80-82 and Fo84-87 displaying normal and reverse zoning. Thermodynamic calculations show that only cores with Fo80-82 are in equilibrium with the whole rock. Clinopyroxene phenocrysts can have large pools of matrix glass and show rims of different composition. Only the rims, with Mg#84-86, are in equilibrium with the whole-rock. Considering olivine cores and clinopyroxene rims in equilibrium we obtained a temperature range of 1150-1165°C, and MELTS calculations suggest pressures of 1 to 5 kbar. The variety of olivine core populations reflects mixing and mingling between three different magmas, and their proportions have changed with time from Siete Fuentes to Arafo. Most crystals have complex zoning profiles that record two events: (1) one of magma mixing/mingling at depth, (2) another of magma transport and ascent to the surface. Magma mixing at depth ranges from about 3 months to two years and is similar for the three eruptions. Magma transport times vary between about one week and one month, with somewhat longer times in the last eruption. The longer magma mixing times might be related to precursory seismicity of a few months as it occurred in the recent eruption of El Hierro in 2011. The shorter transport times of a week to a month might be more relevant for emergency plans in Tenerife Island.

The evolution of periodic seismicity, waveform similarity, and conduit processes during unrest episodes at Tungurahua volcano, Ecuador, in 2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bell, Andrew; Hernandez, Stephen; Gaunt, Elizabeth; Mothes, Patricia; Hidalgo, Silvana; Ruiz, Mario

2016-04-01

Tungurahua is a large andesitic stratovolcano located in the Andes of Ecuador. The current eruptive phase at Tungurahua began in 1999, and has been characterised by episodes of vulcanian and strombolian activity, interspersed by periods of relative quiescence. Despite showing only modest eruptive activity in 2015, seismic data revealed a pronounced change in the behaviour of the magma-conduit system compared to the preceding 15 years of activity. The change is most notable in the periodicity of interevent-times of volcanic earthquakes. Previous seismicity at Tungurahua is characterised by interevent-time periodicities typical of a Poisson process, or modestly clustered, with slightly elevated (anti-clustered) periodicities observed only rarely during vulcanian episodes. However, activity in 2015 saw a series of unrest episodes characterised by highly-periodic interevent-times, and including several notable episodes of 'drumbeat' earthquakes. Here we report seismic and associated geophysical signals recorded at Tungurahua in 2015 by the monitoring network of the Instituto Geofisico of Ecuador, their relation to conduit processes, and implications for the origins of unrest and likely future activity. Although the nature of the low-frequency seismic signals change both within and between unrest episodes, the underlying periodicity is more consistent and gradually evolving. Waveform similarity is high within phases, resulting from the repeated activation of persistent sources, but low between different episodes, suggesting the emergence of new sources and locations. The strength of periodicity is correlated with the average waveform similarity for all unrest episodes, with the relatively low waveform similarities observed for the highly periodic drumbeat earthquakes in April due to contamination from coexisting continuous tremor. Eruptive activity consisted of a few minor explosions and ash emission events. Notably, a short-lived episode of Strombolian activity in November with juvenile magma was quickly followed by a resumption of periodic low-frequency seismicity. The changes in the seismicity of Tungurahua in 2015 suggest a significant change in the magma-conduit system. Elevated periodicity may indicate the presence of a slowly upward moving plug at a depth of 1-2km below the summit crater, likely associated with the unusually long repose period since the last major vulcanian episode in October 2014. Evolution in the periodicity and type of seismic signals within and between unrest episodes will be controlled by a combination of the gas flux and permeability, and a balance between thermo-mechanical plug degradation and time-dependent healing processes. These factors are also likely to determine the nature of future eruptive activity.

Insights From Field Geology Into the Styles and Timings of Large Silicic Explosive `Supereruptions'

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, C. J.

2006-12-01

The evocative terms `supereruption' (and `supervolcano'), whilst eminently saleable to the media, conceal the fact that, apart from knowing that such large eruptions (>300 km3, magma) actually have occurred, we understand very little about the dynamics of such events. Field studies of 3 supereruption deposits suggest that we are missing information on the timing and eruptive styles that is essential in assessing the dynamics and impacts of past and future large eruptions. The 26.5 ka Oruanui eruption in New Zealand (ca. 530 km3, magma) shows evidence in the form of erosion intervals and/or reworked horizons for spasmodic activity, including a hiatus of weeks plus other shorter breaks, that interrupted 10 phases of activity. Following the plinian fall unit of phase 1, there was a time break long enough for local reworking (and possibly emplacement of a small dome), thus of the order of weeks in duration. Other breaks, during which minor wind- or water-reworking took place are observed between phases 4 and 5, and 9 and 10, and were of the order of days. Two other horizons saw the complete settling out of 10-20 micron-sized ash particles before commencement of the next phase of the eruption, and thus may represent breaks of hours. The whole eruption was a series of large-scale outbreaks of generally increasing vigor, daisy-chained to form a single geological event, but one which would represent recurrent hazards, and uncertainties in eruptive activity if repeated today. The 0.76 Ma Bishop Tuff eruption (ca. 600 km3, magma), on the other hand, displays evidence only for one short time break, represented by settling out of fine ash at the top of a plinian pumice fall unit. Most of the eruption volume may have been emplaced over only about 6 days. Such an eruption, although catastrophic when placed in today's societal context, at least was over relatively rapidly. The immense 2.06 Ma Huckleberry Ridge Tuff (HRT) eruption (ca. 2500 km3, magma) shows evidence for prolonged time breaks, possibly of months to years, at several stages. During deposition of the basal pre- ignimbrite fall deposit, horizons of wind- and/or water-reworked material occur, suggesting that normal weather processes (wind, hail deposition, rainfall) may have affected the deposits during breaks in deposition. Between the three major ignimbrite units (A, B and C), there is local evidence for cooling below temperatures required for welding across their mutual boundaries and partial cessation of vapour-phase alteration in the earlier unit where the ignimbrites thin against topographic highs. A false impression of continuity in HRT emplacement is given by a lack of significant density contrasts across unit boundaries in areas where the deposits were thick enough to cause high temperatures and concomitant welding across the mutual contacts. All three eruptions show evidence for partial or complete simultaneity of plinian pumice fall deposition with co- generation and emplacement of ignimbrite. The widespread notions of fall and flow activity being antipathetic and of the former leading to the latter are too simple, especially given the demonstrable development of multiple vent sites in the Oruanui and Bishop eruptions. All three eruptions show that there is a wealth of information to be gained from detailed field studies that can provide powerful constraints on eruption dynamics, although it is apparent that there is no simple model that can be applied to supereruptions. Two out of the three examples were prolonged for months or years, and assessing when the eruption would have actually finished, or foreseeing the climactic stage(s) which would have caused the greatest impact, would have been problematic.

The changing shapes of active volcanoes: History, evolution, and future challenges for volcano geodesy

USGS Publications Warehouse

Poland, Michael P.; Hamburger, Michael W.; Newman, Andrew V.

2006-01-01

At the very heart of volcanology lies the search for the 'plumbing systems' that form the inner workings of Earth’s active volcanoes. By their very nature, however, the magmatic reservoirs and conduits that underlie these active volcanic systems are elusive; mostly they are observable only through circumstantial evidence, using indirect, and often ambiguous, surficial measurements. Of course, we can infer much about these systems from geologic investigation of materials brought to the surface by eruptions and of the exposed roots of ancient volcanoes. But how can we study the magmatic processes that are occurring beneath Earth’s active volcanoes? What are the geometry, scale, physical, and chemical characteristics of magma reservoirs? Can we infer the dynamics of magma transport? Can we use this information to better forecast the future behavior of volcanoes? These questions comprise some of the most fundamental, recurring themes of modern research in volcanology. The field of volcano geodesy is uniquely situated to provide critical observational constraints on these problems. For the past decade, armed with a new array of technological innovations, equipped with powerful computers, and prepared with new analytical tools, volcano geodesists have been poised to make significant advances in our fundamental understanding of the behavior of active volcanic systems. The purpose of this volume is to highlight some of these recent advances, particularly in the collection and interpretation of geodetic data from actively deforming volcanoes. The 18 papers that follow report on new geodetic data that offer valuable insights into eruptive activity and magma transport; they present new models and modeling strategies that have the potential to greatly increase understanding of magmatic, hydrothermal, and volcano-tectonic processes; and they describe innovative techniques for collecting geodetic measurements from remote, poorly accessible, or hazardous volcanoes. To provide a proper context for these studies, we offer a short review of the evolution of volcano geodesy, as well as a case study that highlights recent advances in the field by comparing the geodetic response to recent eruptive episodes at Mount St. Helens. Finally, we point out a few areas that continue to challenge the volcano geodesy community, some of which are addressed by the papers that follow and which undoubtedly will be the focus of future research for years to come.

Earth Observations taken by the Expedition 20 crew

NASA Image and Video Library

2009-08-05

ISS020-E-028123 (5 Aug. 2009) --- Mount Hood, Oregon is featured in this image photographed by an Expedition 20 crew member on the International Space Station. Mount Hood is located within the Cascade Range of the western United States, and is the highest peak (3,426 m) in Oregon. The Cascade Range is characterized by a line of volcanoes associated with a slab of oceanic crust that is subducting, or descending underneath, the westward moving continental crust of North America. Magma generated by the subduction process rises upward through the crust and feeds a line of active volcanoes that extends from northern California in the United States to southern British Columbia in Canada. While hot springs and steam vents are still active on Mount Hood, the last eruption from the volcano occurred in 1866. The volcano is considered dormant, but still actively monitored. Separate phases of eruptive activity produced pyroclastic flows and lahars ? mudflows ? that carried erupted materials down all of the major rivers draining the volcano. Gray volcanic deposits extend southwards along the banks of the White River (upper right), and form several prominent ridges along the southeast to southwest flanks of the volcano. The deposits contrast sharply with the green vegetated lower flanks of the volcano. The Mount Hood stratovolcano ? a typically cone-shaped volcanic structure formed by interlayered lava flows and explosive eruption deposits ? hosts twelve mapped glaciers along its upper flanks (center). Like other glaciers in the Pacific Northwest, the Hood glaciers have been receding due to global warming, and have lost an estimated 61 percent of their volume over the past century. The predicted loss of glacial meltwater under future warming scenarios will have significant effects on regional hydrology and water supplies.

Phase petrology reveals shallow magma storage prior to large explosive silicic eruptions at Hekla volcano, Iceland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weber, Gregor; Castro, Jonathan M.

2017-05-01

Understanding the conditions that culminate in explosive eruptions of silicic magma is of great importance for volcanic hazard assessment and crisis mitigation. However, geological records of active volcanoes typically show a wide range of eruptive behavior and magnitude, which can vary dramatically for individual eruptive centers. In order to evaluate possible future scenarios of eruption precursors, magmatic system variables for different eruption types need to be constrained. Here we use petrological experiments and microanalysis of crystals to clarify the P-T-x state under which rhyodacitic melts accumulated prior to the H3 eruption; the largest Holocene Plinian eruption of Hekla volcano in Iceland. Cobalt-buffered, H2O-saturated phase equilibrium experiments reproduce the natural H3 pumice phenocryst assemblage (pl > fa + cpx > ilm + mt > ap + zrc) and glass chemistry, at 850 ± 15°C and PH2O of 130 to 175 MPa, implying shallow crustal magma storage between 5 and 6.6 km. The systematics of FeO and anorthite (CaAl2Si2O8) content in plagioclase reveal that thermal gradients were more important than compositional mixing or mingling within this magma reservoir. As these petrological findings indicate magma storage much shallower than is currently thought of Hekla's mafic system, we use the constrained storage depth in combination with deformation modeling to forecast permissible surface uplift patterns that could stem from pre-eruptive magma intrusion. Using forward modeling of surface deformation above various magma storage architectures, we show that vertical surface displacements caused by silicic magma accumulation at ∼6 km depth would be narrower than those observed in recent mafic events, which are fed from a lower crustal storage zone. Our results show how petrological reconstruction of magmatic system variables can help link signs of pre-eruptive geophysical unrest to magmatic processes occurring in reservoirs at shallow depths. This will enhance our abilities to couple deformation measurements (e.g. InSAR and GPS) to petrological studies to better constrain potential precursors to volcanic eruptions.

Social and environmental impact of volcaniclastic flows related to 472 AD eruption at Vesuvius from stratigraphic and geoarcheological data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Di Vito, Mauro A.; de Vita, Sandro; Rucco, Ilaria; Bini, Monica; Zanchetta, Giovanni; Aurino, Paola; Cesarano, Mario; Ebanista, Carlo; Rosi, Mauro; Ricciardi, Giovanni

2017-04-01

There is a growing number of evidences in the surrounding plain of Somma-Vesuvius volcano which indicate that along with primary volcanic processes (i.e. fallout, pyroclastic density currents) the syn-eruptive and post-eruptive volcaniclastic remobilization has severely impacted the ancient civilizations, which flourished in the area. This represents an important starting point for understanding the future hazard related to a potential (and not remote) renewal of volcanic activity of the Campaniana volcanoes. We present geoarcheological and stratigraphic data obtained from the analysis of more than 160 sections in the Campanian plain showing the widespread impact of volcaniclastic debris flows and floods originated from the rapid remobilization of the products of the AD 472 eruption of Somma-Vesuvius, both on the environment and on the human landscape. This eruption was one of the two sub-Plinian historical events of Somma Vesuvius. This event largely impacted the northern and eastern territory surrounding the volcano with deposition of a complex sequence of pyroclastic-fallout and -current deposits. These sequences were variably affected by syn- and post-eruptive mobilization both along the Somma-Vesuvius slopes and the Apennine valleys with the emplacement of thick mud- and debris-flows which strongly modified the preexisting paleogeography of the Plain with irretrievable damages to the agricultural and urban landscape. The multidisciplinary approach to the study of the sequences permitted to reconstruct the palaeoenvironment before the eruption and the timing of the emplacement of both pyroclastic and volcanoclastic deposits. The preexisting landscape was characterized by intense human occupation, although showing strong evidences of degradation and abandonment due to the progressive decline of the Roman Empire. The impact of volcaniclastic flows continued for decades after the eruption as highlighted in the studied sequences by stratigraphic and archaeologic data. In fact the volcanoclastic flows emplacement continued at least until the following AD 512 eruption of Somma-Vesuvius, and likely contributed to the final decline of the Roman civilization in the area.

2005 Volcanic Activity in Alaska, Kamchatka, and the Kurile Islands: Summary of Events and Response of the Alaska Volcano Observatory

USGS Publications Warehouse

McGimsey, R.G.; Neal, C.A.; Dixon, J.P.; Ushakov, Sergey

2008-01-01

The Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO) responded to eruptive activity or suspected volcanic activity at or near 16 volcanoes in Alaska during 2005, including the high profile precursory activity associated with the 2005?06 eruption of Augustine Volcano. AVO continues to participate in distributing information about eruptive activity on the Kamchatka Peninsula, Russia, and in the Kurile Islands of the Russian Far East, in conjunction with the Kamchatkan Volcanic Eruption Response Team (KVERT) and the Sakhalin Volcanic Eruption Response Team (SVERT), respectively. In 2005, AVO helped broadcast alerts about activity at 8 Russian volcanoes. The most serious hazard posed from volcanic eruptions in Alaska, Kamchatka, or the Kurile Islands is the placement of ash into the atmosphere at altitudes traversed by jet aircraft along the North Pacific and Russian Trans East air routes. AVO, KVERT, and SVERT work collaboratively with the National Weather Service, Federal Aviation Administration, and the Volcanic Ash Advisory Centers to provide timely warnings of volcanic eruptions and the production and movement of ash clouds.

Volcanic hazards at Mount Rainier, Washington

USGS Publications Warehouse

Crandell, Dwight Raymond; Mullineaux, Donal Ray

1967-01-01

Mount Rainier is a large stratovolcano of andesitic rock in the Cascade Range of western Washington. Although the volcano as it now stands was almost completely formed before the last major glaciation, geologic formations record a variety of events that have occurred at the volcano in postglacial time. Repetition of some of these events today without warning would result in property damage and loss of life on a catastrophic scale. It is appropriate, therefore, to examine the extent, frequency, and apparent origin of these phenomena and to attempt to predict the effects on man of similar events in the future. The present report was prompted by a contrast that we noted during a study of surficial geologic deposits in Mount Rainier National Park, between the present tranquil landscape adjacent to the volcano and the violent events that shaped parts of that same landscape in the recent past. Natural catastrophes that have geologic causes - such as eruptions, landslides, earthquakes, and floods - all too often are disastrous primarily because man has not understood and made allowance for the geologic environment he occupies. Assessment of the potential hazards of a volcanic environment is especially difficult, for prediction of the time and kind of volcanic activity is still an imperfect art, even at active volcanoes whose behavior has been closely observed for many years. Qualified predictions, however, can be used to plan ways in which hazards to life and property can be minimized. The prediction of eruptions is handicapped because volcanism results from conditions far beneath the surface of the earth, where the causative factors cannot be seen and, for the most part, cannot be measured. Consequently, long-range predictions at Mount Rainier can be based only on the past behavior of the volcano, as revealed by study of the deposits that resulted from previous eruptions. Predictions of this sort, of course, cannot be specific as to time and locale of future events, and clearly are valid only if the past behavior is, as we believe, a reliable guide. The purpose of this report is to infer the events recorded by certain postglacial deposits at Mount Rainier and to suggest what bearing similar events in the future might have on land use within and near the park. In addition, table 2 (page 22) gives possible warning signs of an impending eruption. We want to increase man's understanding of a possibly hazardous geologic environment around Mount Rainier volcano, yet we do not wish to imply for certain that the hazards described are either immediate or inevitable. However, we do believe that hazards exist, that some caution is warranted, and that some major hazards can be avoided by judicious planning. Most of the events with which we are concerned are sporadic phenomena that have resulted directly or indirectly from volcanic eruptions. Although no eruptions (other than steam emission) of the volcano in historic time are unequivocally known (Hopson and others, 1962), pyroclastic (air-laid) deposits of pumice and rock debris attest to repeated, widely spaced eruptions during the 10,000 years or so of postglacial time. In addition, the constituents of some debris flows indicate an origin during eruptions of molten rock; other debris flows, because of their large size and constituents, are believed to have been caused by steam explosions. Some debris flows, however, are not related to volcanism at all.

Postglacial eruptive history and geochemistry of Semisopochnoi volcano, western Aleutian Islands, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Coombs, Michelle L.; Larsen, Jessica F.; Neal, Christina A.

2018-02-14

Semisopochnoi Island, located in the Rat Islands group of the western Aleutian Islands and Aleutian volcanic arc, is a roughly circular island composed of scattered volcanic vents, the prominent caldera of Semisopochnoi volcano, and older, ancestral volcanic rocks. The oldest rocks on the island are gently radially dipping lavas that are the remnants of a shield volcano and of Ragged Top, which is an eroded stratocone southeast of the current caldera. None of these oldest rocks have been dated, but they all are likely Pleistocene in age. Anvil Peak, to the caldera’s north, has the morphology of a young stratocone and is latest Pleistocene to early Holocene in age. The oldest recognized Holocene deposits are those of the caldera-forming eruption, which produced the 7- by 6-km caldera in the center of the island, left nonwelded ignimbrite in valleys below the edifice, and left welded ignimbrite high on its flanks. The caldera-forming eruption produced rocks showing a range of intermediate whole-rock compositions throughout the eruption sequence, although a majority of clasts analyzed form a fairly tight cluster on SiO2-variation diagrams at 62.9 to 63.4 weight percent SiO2. This clustering of compositions at about 63 weight percent SiO2 includes black, dense, obsidian-like clasts, as well as tan, variably oxidized, highly inflated pumice clasts. The best estimate for the timing of the eruption is from a soil dated at 6,920±60 14C years before present underlying a thin facies of the ignimbrite deposit on the island’s north coast. Shortly after the caldera-forming eruption, two scoria cones on the northwest flank of the volcano outside the caldera, Ringworm crater and Threequarter Cone, simultaneously erupted small volumes of andesite.The oldest intracaldera lavas, on the floor of the caldera, are andesitic to dacitic, but are mostly covered by younger lavas and tephras. These intracaldera lavas include the basaltic andesites of small Windy cone, as well as the more voluminous basaltic andesites of three-peaked Mount Cerberus, which takes up most of the west half of the caldera and has erupted lavas that flowed to the sea on the southwestern coast of the island. Apparently active at the same time as Mount Cerberus, extracaldera Sugarloaf Peak at the southern point of the island has exclusively erupted basalts. Its young satellite peak, Sugarloaf Head, has erupted morphologically young lavas and cinder cones and may be the source of the last historical eruption in 1987. Several tephra sections on the east half of the island record as many as 50 tephras, mostly from Mount Cerberus, Sugarloaf Peak, and Sugarloaf Head, over the past several thousand years.Eruptive products of Semisopochnoi Island show an overall compositional range of basalt to dacite, though basaltic andesite and andesite constitute the largest proportions of rock types. They are tholeiitic, low to medium K, and have geochemical characteristics typical of magmatic arcs. The earliest Pleistocene lavas are mostly basalts that show the greatest geochemical diversity, as illustrated by, for example, LaN/YbN ratios of 1.9 to 3.5, suggesting fluctuations in the magma source region over the hundreds of thousands of years recorded by these older lavas. The Holocene rocks, in contrast, follow arrays in compositional space that suggest crystallization differentiation from discrete, subtly different batches of magma under varying pressure and temperature conditions. Increasingly negative Eu anomalies and an only modestly increasing alumina saturation index value with differentiation suggest that plagioclase and mafic silicates (amphibole and pyroxene) were involved to varying degrees in fractional crystallization to produce Semisopochnoi’s magmatic diversity. The crystal-poor, andesitic magmas that erupted during caldera formation likely separated from a plagioclase-, amphibole-, and clinopyroxene-dominated crystal residue in the upper crust at less than 900 °C, possibly following a period of decreased magmatic flux. During the Holocene, basaltic Sugarloaf Peak appears to bypass any upper crustal magmatic storage region and erupt crystal-rich basalts. Recent seismic swarms and long-lived warm springs attest to ongoing magmatic activity.The Holocene eruptive record at Semisopochnoi volcano is one of diverse eruptive styles as well as frequent eruptions from multiple vents located within and outside the caldera. The number and diversity of postcaldera vents means that the sites of future eruptions cannot be predicted with certainty. Future eruptions of ash similar in magnitude to the VEI 3 or less eruptions recorded in the documented tephra deposits would pose a hazard to aircraft in the region.

Kīlauea - An explosive volcano in Hawai‘i

USGS Publications Warehouse

Swanson, Donald A.; Fiske, Dick; Rose, Tim; Houghton, Bruce F.; Mastin, Larry

2011-01-01

Kīlauea Volcano on the Island of Hawai‘i, though best known for its frequent quiet eruptions of lava flows, has erupted explosively many times in its history - most recently in 2011. At least six such eruptions in the past 1,500 years sent ash into the jet stream, at the cruising altitudes for today's aircraft. The eruption of 1790 remains the most lethal eruption known from a U.S. volcano. However, the tendency of Kīlauea's 2 million annual visitors is to forget this dangerous potential. Cooperative research by scientists of the U.S. Geological Survey, Smithsonian Institution, and University of Hawai‘i is improving our understanding of Kīlauea's explosive past and its potential for future violent eruptions.

Seismic array observations for monitoring phreatic eruptions in Iwojima Island, Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ueda, H.; Kawaguchi, R.; Chiba, K.; Fujita, E.; Tanada, T.

2015-12-01

Iwojima is an active volcanic island located within a 10 km wide submarine caldera about 1250 km to the south of Tokyo, Japan. The volcanic activity is characterized by intensive earthquake activity associated with an island-wide uplift with high uplift rate (30~40 cm/year) and hydrothermal activity. In the last 10 years, phreatic eruptions took place in and near the island in 2012, 2013, and 2015. In such restless volcano, predictions and detections of occurrence points of phreatic eruptions are important for ensuring safety of residents. In the previous studies, we found that the earthquake activity of Iwojima highly correlates with the island wide large uplift, but the precursory activity of the phreatic eruption in 2012 was deviated from the correlation (Ueda et al. 2013 AGU Fall Meeting). For prediction of occurrence points of phreatic eruptions and investigation of the eruption mechanism, we began observation by seismic arrays at two areas in December 2014. The seismic arrays enable to locate epicenters of volcanic tremors, which are not well located by existing seismic stations. In May and June 2015, Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force stayed in Iwojima and a live camera of Japan Meteorological Agency found very small phreatic eruptions occurred at the northern beach. Existing seismic stations could not detect seismic signals related with the eruptions. The seismic array could detect weak seismic signals related with the eruptions. Although the seismic arrays could not detect precursory signals because of too small eruption, we expect the seismic arrays can detect precursory seismic signals suggesting occurrence points of small or medium-sized phreatic eruptions. The seismic arrays also detected epicenters of harmonic and monotonic tremors took place at an active fumarolic field in the north earthen part of Iwojima. The apparent velocity of seismic waves (~1km/s) strongly suggests that the tremors relate with hydrothermal activity near ground surface.

Tooth Eruption without Roots

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Root development and tooth eruption are very important topics in dentistry. However, they remain among the less-studied and -understood subjects. Root development accompanies rapid tooth eruption, but roots are required for the movement of teeth into the oral cavity. It has been shown that the dental follicle and bone remodeling are essential for tooth eruption. So far, only limited genes have been associated with root formation and tooth eruption. This may be due to the difficulties in studying late stages of tooth development and tooth movement and the lack of good model systems. Transgenic mice with eruption problems and short or no roots can be used as a powerful model for further deciphering of the cellular, molecular, and genetic mechanisms underlying root formation and tooth eruption. Better understanding of these processes can provide hints on delivering more efficient dental therapies in the future. PMID:23345536

The July - August 2014 Mt. Etna eruptions: insights on the magmatic feeding system from geochemical and geophysical data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zuccarello, Francesco; Cannata, Andrea; Gresta, Stefano; Palano, Mimmo; Viccaro, Marco

2016-04-01

The 2014 volcanic activity of Mt. Etna has been characterized by a marked change in the eruptive behavior with respect to the one that occurred during the 2011-2013 time interval. During the 2011-2013 period, the volcanic activity was characterized by the occurrence of more than 40 vigorous lava fountain episodes at the summit New South-East Crater (hereinafter NSEC). Conversely, from the end of 2013 to the end of 2014, although intense Strombolian and effusive activity took place at NSEC, the volcanic activity never culminated in sustained lava fountaining and voluminous tephra emission. The July - August 2014 eruption can be framed within such a low level of volcanic activity. This eruption started on July 5 2014, when a fissure opened on the lower eastern flank of the summit North-East Crater (hereinafter NEC), close to the fracture field of the 2008-2009 eruption. These fissures fed weak Strombolian activity and minor lava emission from two new vents located at about 3000 m elevation. On July 25, more intense Strombolian activity took place at a further vent opened close to these two vents, at 3090 m elevation. The eruption from the vents on the lower eastern flank of NEC continued until August 9. Before the end of this eruption, on 8 August a new eruptive episode started at NSEC. This last eruption, culminating during August 11-14 with vigorous Strombolian activity and lava effusion, ended on August 16. Moreover, such a contemporaneous activity at both NSEC and NEC lends credit to the existence of a shallow link between the two craters. Taking advantage from the availability of an extensive dataset of geochemical, seismic and geodetic data we have here analyzed the volcanic activity characterizing this eruptive event. This integrated, multidisciplinary study is aimed at improving the knowledge of the deeper and shallower portions of the magmatic feeding system along with the magma transfer mechanisms toward the surface.

The extimated presence of differentiated higly explosive magmas beneath Vesuvius and Campi Flegrei: evidence from geochemical and textural studies.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pappalardo, Lucia; Mastrolorenzo, Giuseppe

2010-05-01

Highly catastrophic explosive eruptions are supplied by Si-rich magmas, generated at shallower level in crust by the evolution of mantle liquids. The timescale of these evolution processes is a crucial factor, because of its control on the length of volcano repose interval leading to high explosive events. Campi Flegrei and Somma-Vesuvius alkaline volcanic systems, located respectively at few kilometers west and east of Neapolitan metropolitan area, produced a variety of eruptions ranging from not explosive lava flows and domes to highly destructive eruptions. Both these high risk volcanoes are in repose time since the last eruption occurred in the 1538 and 1944 BP, respectively. Since that time, the volcanoes experienced fumarolic activity, low level of seismicity with rare earthquakes swarms, as well as two bradyseismic crisis (1969-1972 and 1982-1984) localized in the center of Campi Flegrei caldera, that generated a net uplift of 3.5 m around the town of Pozzuoli. A wide low velocity layer interpreted as an extended magmatic body has been detected at 8-10 km depth beneath these volcanoes by seismic data. The capability of this reservoir to erupt explosively again strongly depends on magma differentiation degree, therefore the knowledge of the time lapse necessary at not explosive mafic liquids to differentiate toward explosive magmas is very crucial to predict the size of a possible short-term future eruption in Campanian area. Our petrologic data indicate that a multi-depth supply system was active under the Campanian Plain since 39 ka. Fractional crystallization during magma cooling associated with upward migration of less dense evolved liquids appears to be the prevalent differentiation process. Our results indicate that huge steam exolution occurred during the late stage of trachyte and phonolite crystallization thus accounting for the high Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of eruptions supplied by these melts. Moreover our CSD data on phenocrysts reveal rapid crystallization and differentiation time for alkaline Campanian magmas (in the order of decades to few centuries). This evidence implies that the 400 km2 partial melting zone detected by tomography study at 8-10 km depth beneath Vesuvius and Campi Flegrei, should consist of differentiated magma already capable to produce also large scale (plinian) explosive events in case of renewal of the activity from the present closed-conduit state.

Global Volcano Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sparks, R. S. J.; Loughlin, S. C.; Cottrell, E.; Valentine, G.; Newhall, C.; Jolly, G.; Papale, P.; Takarada, S.; Crosweller, S.; Nayembil, M.; Arora, B.; Lowndes, J.; Connor, C.; Eichelberger, J.; Nadim, F.; Smolka, A.; Michel, G.; Muir-Wood, R.; Horwell, C.

2012-04-01

Over 600 million people live close enough to active volcanoes to be affected when they erupt. Volcanic eruptions cause loss of life, significant economic losses and severe disruption to people's lives, as highlighted by the recent eruption of Mount Merapi in Indonesia. The eruption of Eyjafjallajökull, Iceland in 2010 illustrated the potential of even small eruptions to have major impact on the modern world through disruption of complex critical infrastructure and business. The effects in the developing world on economic growth and development can be severe. There is evidence that large eruptions can cause a change in the earth's climate for several years afterwards. Aside from meteor impact and possibly an extreme solar event, very large magnitude explosive volcanic eruptions may be the only natural hazard that could cause a global catastrophe. GVM is a growing international collaboration that aims to create a sustainable, accessible information platform on volcanic hazard and risk. We are designing and developing an integrated database system of volcanic hazards, vulnerability and exposure with internationally agreed metadata standards. GVM will establish methodologies for analysis of the data (eg vulnerability indices) to inform risk assessment, develop complementary hazards models and create relevant hazards and risk assessment tools. GVM will develop the capability to anticipate future volcanism and its consequences. NERC is funding the start-up of this initiative for three years from November 2011. GVM builds directly on the VOGRIPA project started as part of the GRIP (Global Risk Identification Programme) in 2004 under the auspices of the World Bank and UN. Major international initiatives and partners such as the Smithsonian Institution - Global Volcanism Program, State University of New York at Buffalo - VHub, Earth Observatory of Singapore - WOVOdat and many others underpin GVM.

Sequential assimilation of volcanic monitoring data to quantify eruption potential: Application to Kerinci volcano

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhan, Yan; Gregg, Patricia M.; Chaussard, Estelle; Aoki, Yosuke

2017-12-01

Quantifying the eruption potential of a restless volcano requires the ability to model parameters such as overpressure and calculate the host rock stress state as the system evolves. A critical challenge is developing a model-data fusion framework to take advantage of observational data and provide updates of the volcanic system through time. The Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) uses a Monte Carlo approach to assimilate volcanic monitoring data and update models of volcanic unrest, providing time-varying estimates of overpressure and stress. Although the EnKF has been proven effective to forecast volcanic deformation using synthetic InSAR and GPS data, until now, it has not been applied to assimilate data from an active volcanic system. In this investigation, the EnKF is used to provide a “hindcast” of the 2009 explosive eruption of Kerinci volcano, Indonesia. A two-sources analytical model is used to simulate the surface deformation of Kerinci volcano observed by InSAR time-series data and to predict the system evolution. A deep, deflating dike-like source reproduces the subsiding signal on the flanks of the volcano, and a shallow spherical McTigue source reproduces the central uplift. EnKF predicted parameters are used in finite element models to calculate the host-rock stress state prior to the 2009 eruption. Mohr-Coulomb failure models reveal that the shallow magma reservoir is trending towards tensile failure prior to 2009, which may be the catalyst for the 2009 eruption. Our results illustrate that the EnKF shows significant promise for future applications to forecasting the eruption potential of restless volcanoes and hind-cast the triggering mechanisms of observed eruptions.

Special issue: The changing shapes of active volcanoes: Recent results and advances in volcano geodesy

USGS Publications Warehouse

Poland, Michael P.; Newman, Andrew V.

2006-01-01

The 18 papers herein report on new geodetic data that offer valuable insights into eruptive activity and magma transport; they present new models and modeling strategies that have the potential to greatly increase understanding of magmatic, hydrothermal, and volcano-tectonic processes; and they describe innovative techniques for collecting geodetic measurements from remote, poorly accessible, or hazardous volcanoes. To provide a proper context for these studies, we offer a short review of the evolution of volcano geodesy, as well as a case study that highlights recent advances in the field by comparing the geodetic response to recent eruptive episodes at Mount St. Helens. Finally, we point out a few areas that continue to challenge the volcano geodesy community, some of which are addressed by the papers that follow and which undoubtedly will be the focus of future research for years to come.

Popocatepetl Erupts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2002-01-01

The Popocatepetl Volcano, almost 30 miles south of Mexico City, erupted yesterday (December 18, 2000) in what authorities are calling its most spectacular eruption since 800 A.D. This morning, Popocatepetl (pronounced poh-poh-kah-TEH-peh-til) continued spewing red-hot rocks as well as a column of smoke and ash about 2.5 miles high into the atmosphere. This true-color image of the volcano was acquired today by the Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) flying aboard the OrbView-2 satellite. In this image, Popocatepetl's plume (greyish pixels) can be seen blowing southward, away from Mexico City. There is a large cloud bank (bright white pixels) just to the east of the volcanic plume. Although Popocatepetl has been active since 1994-when it awoke from a 70-year slumber-this most recent eruption is most concerning to the greater Mexico City region's 20 million residents. The volcano demonstrated what it can do in 800 A.D. when it belched forth enough lava to fill many of the valleys in the surrounding region. Earlier, scientists warned the citizens of Mexico that there is a dome of lava at the base of the volcano that is causing pressure to build inside. They are concerned that, if it continues to build unabated, this pressure could cause even larger eruptions in the future. Image provided by the SeaWiFS Project, NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center, and ORBIMAGE

Explosive eruptive history of Pantelleria, Italy: Repeated caldera collapse and ignimbrite emplacement at a peralkaline volcano

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jordan, Nina J.; Rotolo, Silvio G.; Williams, Rebecca; Speranza, Fabio; McIntosh, William C.; Branney, Michael J.; Scaillet, Stéphane

2018-01-01

A new, pre-Green Tuff (46 ka) volcanic stratigraphy is presented for the peralkaline Pantelleria Volcano, Italy. New 40Ar/39Ar and paleomagnetic data are combined with detailed field studies to develop a comprehensive stratigraphic reconstruction of the island. We find that the pre-46 ka succession is characterised by eight silica-rich peralkaline (trachyte to pantellerite) ignimbrites, many of which blanketed the entire island. The ignimbrites are typically welded to rheomorphic, and are commonly associated with lithic breccias and/or pumice deposits. They record sustained radial pyroclastic density currents fed by low pyroclastic fountains. The onset of ignimbrite emplacement is typically preceded (more rarely followed) by pumice fallout with limited dispersal, and some eruptions lack any associated pumice fall deposit, suggesting the absence of tall eruption columns. Particular attention is given to the correlation of well-developed lithic breccias in the ignimbrites, interpreted as probable tracers of caldera collapses. They record as many as five caldera collapse events, in contrast to the two events reported to date. Inter-ignimbrite periods are characterised by explosive and effusive eruptions with limited dispersal, such as small pumice cones, as well as pedogenesis. These periods have similar characteristics as the current post-Green Tuff activity on the island, and, while not imminent, it is reasonable to postulate the occurrence of another ignimbrite-forming eruption sometime in the future.

Dome collapse eruption in Tatun Volcanic Group near metropolitan Taipei, Taiwan at ~6 kyrs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, C.; Lee, T.

2010-12-01

The Tatun Volcanic Group (TVG) is located in the north of metropolitan Taipei, Taiwan. Over 6 million inhabitants are living in Taipei City and suburban area. Another critical issue is an international airport and two nuclear power plants are lying at the foot of the TVG. If the TGV will be re-active, the serious hazard for human lives and economies in this area will definitely occur. Understanding the youngest eruption history of the TVG will be much important for prediction the future activity of eruption. The core was collected from the Dream Lake at the eastern slop of Cising Mt.. Total 21 samples from depth 190 cm to 231.5 cm have been tested. Comparison of chemical compositions of glass and minerals in the volcanic clasts with those of lava around TVG, they clearly showed that the volcanic clasts can be correlated with the eruption of the closest Cising Mt. According to the radiocarbon (C-14) age of core sample at the depth 225 cm, the age was extrapolated around 6150 yrs ca. C-14 B.P.. Moreover, the respiratory cristobalite in the volcanic clasts were firstly identified by the identical morphology, chemical composition and Laser Raman Spectrometry (LRS). The crystalline silica was produced by vapor-phase crystallization and devitrification in the andesite lava dome and volcanic ash generated by pyroclastic flows formed by lava dome collapse in Soufriere Hills volcano, Montserrat (Baxter et al.,1999). These new evidence demonstrated that there would probably have the lava dome collapse eruptions in the TVG in the last 6 kyrs. The result in this paper also sustained that the landslide caused by the weak phreatic eruption within the last 6000 yrs in the TVG (Belousov et al., 2010). It must further be noted that an efficient program of the volcanic hazard reduction should be practiced for the metropolitan Taipei and suburban area.

Complex explosive volcanic activity on the Moon within Oppenheimer crater, Icarus

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bennett, Kristen A; Horgan, Briony H N; Gaddis, Lisa R.; Greenhagen, Benjamin T; Allen, Carlton C.; Hayne, Paul O; Bell, James F III; Paige, David A.

2016-01-01

Oppenheimer Crater is a floor-fractured crater located within the South Pole-Aitken basin on the Moon, and exhibits more than a dozen localized pyroclastic deposits associated with the fractures. Localized pyroclastic volcanism on the Moon is thought to form as a result of intermittently explosive Vulcanian eruptions under low effusion rates, in contrast to the higher-effusion rate, Hawaiian-style fire fountaining inferred to form larger regional deposits. We use Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter Camera images and Diviner Radiometer mid-infrared data, Chandrayaan-1 orbiter Moon Mineralogy Mapper near-infrared spectra, and Clementine orbiter Ultraviolet/Visible camera images to test the hypothesis that the pyroclastic deposits in Oppenheimer crater were emplaced via Vulcanian activity by constraining their composition and mineralogy. Mineralogically, we find that the deposits are variable mixtures of orthopyroxene and minor clinopyroxene sourced from the crater floor, juvenile clinopyroxene, and juvenile iron-rich glass, and that the mineralogy of the pyroclastics varies both across the Oppenheimer deposits as a whole and within individual deposits. We observe similar variability in the inferred iron content of pyroclastic glasses, and note in particular that the northwest deposit, associated with Oppenheimer U crater, contains the most iron-rich volcanic glass thus far identified on the Moon, which could be a useful future resource. We propose that this variability in mineralogy indicates variability in eruption style, and that it cannot be explained by a simple Vulcanian eruption. A Vulcanian eruption should cause significant country rock to be incorporated into the pyroclastic deposit; however, large areas within many of the deposits exhibit spectra consistent with high abundances of juvenile phases and very little floor material. Thus, we propose that at least the most recent portion of these deposits must have erupted via a Strombolian or more continuous fire fountaining eruption, and in some cases may have included an effusive component. These results suggest that localized lunar pyroclastic deposits may have a more complex origin and mode of emplacement than previously thought.

Complex explosive volcanic activity on the Moon within Oppenheimer crater

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bennett, Kristen A.; Horgan, Briony H. N.; Gaddis, Lisa R.; Greenhagen, Benjamin T.; Allen, Carlton C.; Hayne, Paul O.; Bell, James F.; Paige, David A.

2016-07-01

Oppenheimer crater is a floor-fractured crater located within the South Pole-Aitken basin on the Moon, and exhibits more than a dozen localized pyroclastic deposits associated with the fractures. Localized pyroclastic volcanism on the Moon is thought to form as a result of intermittently explosive Vulcanian eruptions under low effusion rates, in contrast to the higher-effusion rate, Hawaiian-style fire fountaining inferred to form larger regional deposits. We use Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter Camera images and Diviner Radiometer mid-infrared data, Chandrayaan-1 orbiter Moon Mineralogy Mapper near-infrared spectra, and Clementine orbiter Ultraviolet/visible camera images to test the hypothesis that the pyroclastic deposits in Oppenheimer crater were emplaced via Vulcanian activity by constraining their composition and mineralogy. Mineralogically, we find that the deposits are variable mixtures of orthopyroxene and minor clinopyroxene sourced from the crater floor, juvenile clinopyroxene, and juvenile iron-rich glass, and that the mineralogy of the pyroclastics varies both across the Oppenheimer deposits as a whole and within individual deposits. We observe similar variability in the inferred iron content of pyroclastic glasses, and note in particular that the northwest deposit, associated with Oppenheimer U crater, contains the most iron-rich volcanic glass thus far identified on the Moon, which could be a useful future resource. We propose that this variability in mineralogy indicates variability in eruption style, and that it cannot be explained by a simple Vulcanian eruption. A Vulcanian eruption should cause significant country rock to be incorporated into the pyroclastic deposit; however, large areas within many of the deposits exhibit spectra consistent with high abundances of juvenile phases and very little floor material. Thus, we propose that at least the most recent portion of these deposits must have erupted via a Strombolian or more continuous fire fountaining eruption, and in some cases may have included an effusive component. These results suggest that localized lunar pyroclastic deposits may have a more complex origin and mode of emplacement than previously thought.

Tephra-Producing Eruptions of Holocene Age at Akutan Volcano, Alaska; Frequency, Magnitude, and Hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Waythomas, C. F.; Wallace, K. L.; Schwaiger, H.

2012-12-01

Akutan Volcano in the eastern Aleutian Islands of Alaska is one of the most historically active volcanoes in the Aleutian arc (43 eruptions in about the past 250 years). Explosive eruptions pose major hazards to aircraft flying north Pacific air routes and to local infrastructure on Akutan and neighboring Unalaska Island. Air travel, infrastructure, and population in the region have steadily increased during the past several decades, and thus it is important to better understand the frequency, magnitude, and characteristics of tephra-producing eruptions. The most recent eruption was a VEI 2 event on March 8-May 21, 1992 that resulted in minor ash emissions and trace amounts of proximal fallout. Nearly continuous low-level emission of ash and steam is typical of historical eruptions, and most of the historical events have been similar in magnitude to the 1992 event. The most recent major eruption occurred about 1600 yr. B.P. and likely produced the ca. 2-km diameter summit caldera and inundated valleys that head on the volcano with pyroclastic-flow and lahar deposits that are tens of meters thick. The 1600 yr. B.P. eruption covered most of Akutan Island with up to 2.5 m of coarse scoriaceous tephra fall, including deposits 0.5-1 m thick near the City of Akutan. Tephra-fall deposits associated with this eruption exhibit a continuous sequence of black, fine to coarse scoriaceous lapilli overlain by a lithic-rich facies and finally a muddy aggregate-rich facies indicating water involvement during the latter stages of the eruption. Other tephra deposits of Holocene age on Akutan Island include more than a dozen discrete fine to coarse ash beds and 3-6 beds of scoriaceous, coarse lapilli tephra indicating that there have been several additional major eruptions (>VEI 3) of Akutan Volcano during the Holocene. Radiocarbon dates on these events are pending. In addition to tephra falls from Akutan, other fine ash deposits are found on the island that originated from other Aleutian arc volcanoes. Tephra deposits from typical VEI 2 historical eruptions are not well preserved on the island so tephra-fall frequency estimated from stratigraphic studies is underestimated. Akutan Island is home to the largest seafood processing plant in North America and has a workforce of more than one thousand people. Other infrastructure consists of a recently constructed paved airfield on neighboring Akun Island (25 km east of the active vent) and a new boat harbor at the head of Akutan Harbor. Plans to develop greenhouses, tourism, and increased cold storage capacity on Akutan and Akun Islands also are evolving. To support the power demands of the development efforts, The City of Akutan is considering the utilization of geothermal resources on the island that are located in Hot Springs Bay valley northwest of the city. All of the existing and planned infrastructure, water supply, and residential areas are about 12 km downwind (east) of the volcano and are at risk from ash-producing eruptions. The historical eruptive history suggests that VEI 2 eruptions are plausible in the near future and the Holocene tephra-fall record indicates that large eruptions (VEI 4 or larger) occur about every few thousand years. Numerical modeling of tephra fallout based on the record of ash-producing eruptions will be used to improve tephra-fall hazard assessments for the area.

Assessment of the potential respiratory hazard of volcanic ash from future Icelandic eruptions: A study of archived basaltic to rhyolitic ash samples

USGS Publications Warehouse

Damby, David; Horwell, Claire J.; Larsen, Gudrun; Thordarson, Thorvaldur; Tomatis, Maura; Fubini, Bice; Donaldson, Ken

2017-01-01

BackgroundThe eruptions of Eyjafjallajökull (2010) and Grímsvötn (2011), Iceland, triggered immediate, international consideration of the respiratory health hazard of inhaling volcanic ash, and prompted the need to estimate the potential hazard posed by future eruptions of Iceland’s volcanoes to Icelandic and Northern European populations. MethodsA physicochemical characterization and toxicological assessment was conducted on a suite of archived ash samples spanning the spectrum of past eruptions (basaltic to rhyolitic magmatic composition) of Icelandic volcanoes following a protocol specifically designed by the International Volcanic Health Hazard Network. ResultsIcelandic ash can be of a respirable size (up to 11.3 vol.% < 4 μm), but the samples did not display physicochemical characteristics of pathogenic particulate in terms of composition or morphology. Ash particles were generally angular, being composed of fragmented glass and crystals. Few fiber-like particles were observed, but those present comprised glass or sodium oxides, and are not related to pathogenic natural fibers, like asbestos or fibrous zeolites, thereby limiting concern of associated respiratory diseases. None of the samples contained cristobalite or tridymite, and only one sample contained quartz, minerals of interest due to the potential to cause silicosis. Sample surface areas are low, ranging from 0.4 to 1.6 m2 g−1, which aligns with analyses on ash from other eruptions worldwide. All samples generated a low level of hydroxyl radicals (HO•), a measure of surface reactivity, through the iron-catalyzed Fenton reaction compared to concurrently analyzed comparative samples. However, radical generation increased after ‘refreshing’ sample surfaces, indicating that newly erupted samples may display higher reactivity. A composition-dependent range of available surface iron was measured after a 7-day incubation, from 22.5 to 315.7 μmol m−2, with mafic samples releasing more iron than silicic samples. All samples were non-reactive in a test of red blood cell-membrane damage. ConclusionsThe primary particle-specific concern is the potential for future eruptions of Iceland’s volcanoes to generate fine, respirable material and, thus, to increase ambient PM concentrations. This particularly applies to highly explosive silicic eruptions, but can also hold true for explosive basaltic eruptions or discrete events associated with basaltic fissure eruptions.

Assessment of the potential respiratory hazard of volcanic ash from future Icelandic eruptions: a study of archived basaltic to rhyolitic ash samples.

PubMed

Damby, David E; Horwell, Claire J; Larsen, Gudrun; Thordarson, Thorvaldur; Tomatis, Maura; Fubini, Bice; Donaldson, Ken

2017-09-11

The eruptions of Eyjafjallajökull (2010) and Grímsvötn (2011), Iceland, triggered immediate, international consideration of the respiratory health hazard of inhaling volcanic ash, and prompted the need to estimate the potential hazard posed by future eruptions of Iceland's volcanoes to Icelandic and Northern European populations. A physicochemical characterization and toxicological assessment was conducted on a suite of archived ash samples spanning the spectrum of past eruptions (basaltic to rhyolitic magmatic composition) of Icelandic volcanoes following a protocol specifically designed by the International Volcanic Health Hazard Network. Icelandic ash can be of a respirable size (up to 11.3 vol.% < 4 μm), but the samples did not display physicochemical characteristics of pathogenic particulate in terms of composition or morphology. Ash particles were generally angular, being composed of fragmented glass and crystals. Few fiber-like particles were observed, but those present comprised glass or sodium oxides, and are not related to pathogenic natural fibers, like asbestos or fibrous zeolites, thereby limiting concern of associated respiratory diseases. None of the samples contained cristobalite or tridymite, and only one sample contained quartz, minerals of interest due to the potential to cause silicosis. Sample surface areas are low, ranging from 0.4 to 1.6 m 2  g -1 , which aligns with analyses on ash from other eruptions worldwide. All samples generated a low level of hydroxyl radicals (HO • ), a measure of surface reactivity, through the iron-catalyzed Fenton reaction compared to concurrently analyzed comparative samples. However, radical generation increased after 'refreshing' sample surfaces, indicating that newly erupted samples may display higher reactivity. A composition-dependent range of available surface iron was measured after a 7-day incubation, from 22.5 to 315.7 μmol m -2 , with mafic samples releasing more iron than silicic samples. All samples were non-reactive in a test of red blood cell-membrane damage. The primary particle-specific concern is the potential for future eruptions of Iceland's volcanoes to generate fine, respirable material and, thus, to increase ambient PM concentrations. This particularly applies to highly explosive silicic eruptions, but can also hold true for explosive basaltic eruptions or discrete events associated with basaltic fissure eruptions.

Using Volcanic Lightning Measurements to Discern Variations in Explosive Volcanic Activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Behnke, S. A.; Thomas, R. J.; McNutt, S. R.; Edens, H. E.; Krehbiel, P. R.; Rison, W.

2013-12-01

VHF observations of volcanic lightning have been made during the recent eruptions of Augustine Volcano (2006, Alaska, USA), Redoubt Volcano (2009, Alaska, USA), and Eyjafjallajökull (2010, Iceland). These show that electrical activity occurs both on small scales at the vent of the volcano, concurrent with an eruptive event and on large scales throughout the eruption column during and subsequent to an eruptive event. The small-scale discharges at the vent of the volcano are often referred to as 'vent discharges' and are on the order of 10-100 meters in length and occur at rates on the order of 1000 per second. The high rate of vent discharges produces a distinct VHF signature that is sometimes referred to as 'continuous RF' radiation. VHF radiation from vent discharges has been observed at sensors placed as far as 100 km from the volcano. VHF and infrasound measurements have shown that vent discharges occur simultaneously with the onset of eruption, making their detection an unambiguous indicator of explosive volcanic activity. The fact that vent discharges are observed concurrent with explosive volcanic activity indicates that volcanic ejecta are charged upon eruption. VHF observations have shown that the intensity of vent discharges varies between eruptive events, suggesting that fluctuations in eruptive processes affect the electrification processes giving rise to vent discharges. These fluctuations may be variations in eruptive vigor or variations in the type of eruption; however, the data obtained so far do not show a clear relationship between eruption parameters and the intensity or occurrence of vent discharges. Further study is needed to clarify the link between vent discharges and eruptive behavior, such as more detailed lightning observations concurrent with tephra measurements and other measures of eruptive strength. Observations of vent discharges, and volcanic lightning observations in general, are a valuable tool for volcano monitoring, providing a method for rapid detection of volcanic activity in real-time.

The NASA ASTER Urgent Request Program: The Last Eight Plus Years of Monitoring Kamchatka's Volcanoes From Space

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramsey, M.; Wessels, R.; Dehn, J.; Duda, K.; Harris, A.; Watson, M.

2008-12-01

From soon after its launch in December 1999, the ASTER sensor on the NASA Terra satellite has been acquiring data of volcanic eruptions and other natural disasters around the world. ASTER has the capability to acquire high spatial resolution data from the visible to thermal infrared wavelength region. Those data, in conjunction with its ability to generate digital elevation models (DEMs), makes ASTER particularly useful for numerous aspects of volcanic remote sensing. However, the nature of the ASTER scheduling/data collection/calibration pathway makes rapid observations of hazard locations nearly impossible. The sensor's acquisitions are scheduled in advance and the data are processed and calibrated in Japan prior to archiving in the United States. This can produce a lag of at least several days from the initial request to data scheduling and another several days after acquisition until the data are available. However, there exists a manual "rapid response" mode that provides faster data scheduling, processing and availability. This mode has now been semi-automated and linked to larger-scale and more rapid monitoring alert system. The first phase has been to integrate with the Alaska Volcano Observatory's current near-real-time satellite monitoring system, which relies on high temporal/low spatial resolution orbital data. This phase of the project has focused on eruptions in the north Pacific region, and in particular over Kamchatka, Russia. Several beneficial factors have combined that resulted in over 1350 ASTER images being acquired for the five most thermally-active Kamchatka volcanoes (Bezymianny, Karimsky, Kluichevskoi, Sheveluch and Tolbachik). These factors include the orbital alignment of Terra, the high latitude of the peninsula, and the many eruptions and volcanic activity in Kamchatka. From the inception of the automated rapid response program in 2003, an additional 350 scenes have been acquired over the Kamchatka volcanoes, which have targeted both small-scale activity and larger eruptions for science and hazard response. Numerous eruptions have been observed that displayed varying volcanic styles including basaltic lava flow emplacement, silicic lava dome growth, pyroclastic flow production, volcanic ash plume production, fumarolic activity, and geothermal emission. The focus of this presentation is to summarize the current ASTER rapid response program in Kamchatka, focus on two specific eruptions of Sheveluch volcano, and discuss the future expansion plans for global hazard response.

Spatial vent opening probability map of El Hierro Island (Canary Islands, Spain)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Becerril, Laura; Cappello, Annalisa; Galindo, Inés; Neri, Marco; Del Negro, Ciro

2013-04-01

The assessment of the probable spatial distribution of new eruptions is useful to manage and reduce the volcanic risk. It can be achieved in different ways, but it becomes especially hard when dealing with volcanic areas less studied, poorly monitored and characterized by a low frequent activity, as El Hierro. Even though it is the youngest of the Canary Islands, before the 2011 eruption in the "Las Calmas Sea", El Hierro had been the least studied volcanic Island of the Canaries, with more historically devoted attention to La Palma, Tenerife and Lanzarote. We propose a probabilistic method to build the susceptibility map of El Hierro, i.e. the spatial distribution of vent opening for future eruptions, based on the mathematical analysis of the volcano-structural data collected mostly on the Island and, secondly, on the submerged part of the volcano, up to a distance of ~10-20 km from the coast. The volcano-structural data were collected through new fieldwork measurements, bathymetric information, and analysis of geological maps, orthophotos and aerial photographs. They have been divided in different datasets and converted into separate and weighted probability density functions, which were then included in a non-homogeneous Poisson process to produce the volcanic susceptibility map. Future eruptive events on El Hierro is mainly concentrated on the rifts zones, extending also beyond the shoreline. The major probabilities to host new eruptions are located on the distal parts of the South and West rifts, with the highest probability reached in the south-western area of the West rift. High probabilities are also observed in the Northeast and South rifts, and the submarine parts of the rifts. This map represents the first effort to deal with the volcanic hazard at El Hierro and can be a support tool for decision makers in land planning, emergency plans and civil defence actions.

Digital Data for Volcano Hazards in the Crater Lake Region, Oregon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schilling, S.P.; Doelger, S.; Bacon, C.R.; Mastin, L.G.; Scott, K.E.; Nathenson, M.

2008-01-01

Crater Lake lies in a basin, or caldera, formed by collapse of the Cascade volcano known as Mount Mazama during a violent, climactic eruption about 7,700 years ago. This event dramatically changed the character of the volcano so that many potential types of future events have no precedent there. This potentially active volcanic center is contained within Crater Lake National Park, visited by 500,000 people per year, and is adjacent to the main transportation corridor east of the Cascade Range. Because a lake is now present within the most likely site of future volcanic activity, many of the hazards at Crater Lake are different from those at most other Cascade volcanoes. Also significant are many faults near Crater Lake that clearly have been active in the recent past. These faults, and historic seismicity, indicate that damaging earthquakes can occur there in the future. The USGS Open-File Report 97-487 (Bacon and others, 1997) describes the various types of volcano and earthquake hazards in the Crater Lake area, estimates of the likelihood of future events, recommendations for mitigation, and a map of hazard zones. The geographic information system (GIS) volcano hazard data layers used to produce the Crater Lake earthquake and volcano hazard map in USGS Open-File Report 97-487 are included in this data set. USGS scientists created one GIS data layer, c_faults, that delineates these faults and one layer, cballs, that depicts the downthrown side of the faults. Additional GIS layers chazline, chaz, and chazpoly were created to show 1)the extent of pumiceous pyroclastic-flow deposits of the caldera forming Mount Mazama eruption, 2)silicic and mafic vents in the Crater Lake region, and 3)the proximal hazard zone around the caldera rim, respectively.

Studies in geophysics: Active tectonics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1986-01-01

Active tectonics is defined within the study as tectonic movements that are expected to occur within a future time span of concern to society. Such movements and their associated hazards include earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, and land subsidence and emergence. The entire range of geology, geophysics, and geodesy is, to some extent, pertinent to this topic. The needs for useful forecasts of tectonic activity, so that actions may be taken to mitigate hazards, call for special attention to ongoing tectonic activity. Further progress in understanding active tectonics depends on continued research. Particularly important is improvement in the accuracy of dating techniques for recent geologic materials.

LATERAL OFFSET OF THE CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS FROM THE X-FLARE OF 2006 DECEMBER 13 AND ITS TWO PRECURSOR ERUPTIONS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sterling, Alphonse C.; Moore, Ronald L.; Harra, Louise K., E-mail: alphonse.sterling@nasa.gov, E-mail: ron.moore@nasa.gov, E-mail: lkh@mssl.ucl.ac.uk

2011-12-10

Two GOES sub-C-class precursor eruptions occurred within {approx}10 hr prior to and from the same active region as the 2006 December 13 X4.3-class flare. Each eruption generated a coronal mass ejection (CME) with center laterally far offset ({approx}> 45 Degree-Sign ) from the co-produced bright flare. Explaining such CME-to-flare lateral offsets in terms of the standard model for solar eruptions has been controversial. Using Hinode/X-Ray Telescope (XRT) and EUV Imaging Spectrometer (EIS) data, and Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO)/Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO) and Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) data, we find or infer the following. (1) The first precursormore » was a 'magnetic-arch-blowout' event, where an initial standard-model eruption of the active region's core field blew out a lobe on one side of the active region's field. (2) The second precursor began similarly, but the core-field eruption stalled in the side-lobe field, with the side-lobe field erupting {approx}1 hr later to make the CME either by finally being blown out or by destabilizing and undergoing a standard-model eruption. (3) The third eruption, the X-flare event, blew out side lobes on both sides of the active region and clearly displayed characteristics of the standard model. (4) The two precursors were offset due in part to the CME originating from a side-lobe coronal arcade that was offset from the active region's core. The main eruption (and to some extent probably the precursor eruptions) was offset primarily because it pushed against the field of the large sunspot as it escaped outward. (5) All three CMEs were plausibly produced by a suitable version of the standard model.« less

Mount St. Helens eruptive behavior during the past 1500 yr.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hoblitt, R.P.; Crandell, D.R.; Mullineaux, D.R.

1980-01-01

During the past 1500 yr Mount St. Helens, Washington, has repeatedly erupted dacite domes, tephra, and pyroclastic flows as well as andesite lava flows and tephra. Two periods of activity prior to 1980, each many decades long, were both initiated by eruptions of volatile-rich dacite which were followed by andesite, then by dacite. A third eruptive period was characterized by the eruption of volatile-poor dacite that formed a dome and minor pyroclastic flows. The prolonged duration of some previous eruptive periods suggests that the current activity could continue for many years. The volatile-rich dacite that has been erupted to date probably will be followed by gas-poor magma, but it cannot yet be predicted whether a more mafic magma will be extruded during the current eruptive period.-Authors

The 2014 eruptions of Pavlof Volcano, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Waythomas, Christopher F.; Haney, Matthew M.; Wallace, Kristi; Cameron, Cheryl E.; Schneider, David J.

2017-12-22

Pavlof Volcano is one of the most frequently active volcanoes in the Aleutian Island arc, having erupted more than 40 times since observations were first recorded in the early 1800s . The volcano is located on the Alaska Peninsula (lat 55.4173° N, long 161.8937° W), near Izembek National Wildlife Refuge. The towns and villages closest to the volcano are Cold Bay, Nelson Lagoon, Sand Point, and King Cove, which are all within 90 kilometers (km) of the volcano (fig. 1). Pavlof is a symmetrically shaped stratocone that is 2,518 meters (m) high, and has about 2,300 m of relief. The volcano supports a cover of glacial ice and perennial snow roughly 2 to 4 cubic kilometers (km3) in volume, which is mantled by variable amounts of tephra fall, rockfall debris, and pyroclastic-flow deposits produced during historical eruptions. Typical Pavlof eruptions are characterized by moderate amounts of ash emission, lava fountaining, spatter-fed lava flows, explosions, and the accumulation of unstable mounds of spatter on the upper flanks of the volcano. The accumulation and subsequent collapse of spatter piles on the upper flanks of the volcano creates hot granular avalanches, which erode and melt snow and ice, and thereby generate watery debris-flow and hyperconcentrated-flow lahars. Seismic instruments were first installed on Pavlof Volcano in the early 1970s, and since then eruptive episodes have been better characterized and specific processes have been documented with greater certainty. The application of remote sensing techniques, including the use of infrasound data, has also aided the study of more recent eruptions. Although Pavlof Volcano is located in a remote part of Alaska, it is visible from Cold Bay, Sand Point, and Nelson Lagoon, making distal observations of eruptive activity possible, weather permitting. A busy air-travel corridor that is utilized by a numerous transcontinental and regional air carriers passes near Pavlof Volcano. The frequency of air travel across the region results in a relatively large number of airborne observations of eruptive activity. During the 2014 Pavlof eruptions, the Alaska Volcano Observatory received observations and photographs from pilots and local observers, which aided evaluation of the eruptive activity and the areas affected by eruptive products.This report outlines the chronology of events associated with the 2014 eruptive activity at Pavlof Volcano, provides documentation of the style and character of the eruptive episodes, and reports briefly on the eruptive products and impacts. The principal observations are described and portrayed on maps and photographs, and the 2014 eruptive activity is compared to historical eruptions.

Intrusion Triggering of Explosive Eruptions: Lessons Learned from EYJAFJALLAJÖKULL 2010 Eruptions and Crustal Deformation Studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sigmundsson, F.; Hreinsdottir, S.; Hooper, A. J.; Arnadottir, T.; Pedersen, R.; Roberts, M. J.; Oskarsson, N.; Auriac, A.; Decriem, J.; Einarsson, P.; Geirsson, H.; Hensch, M.; Ofeigsson, B. G.; Sturkell, E. C.; Sveinbjornsson, H.; Feigl, K.

2010-12-01

Gradual inflation of magma chambers often precedes eruptions at highly active volcanoes. During eruptions, rapid deflation occurs as magma flows out and pressure is reduced. Less is known about the deformation style at moderately active volcanoes, such as Eyjafjallajökull, Iceland, where an explosive summit eruption of trachyandesite beginning on 14 April 2010 caused exceptional disruption to air traffic. This eruption was preceded by an effusive flank eruption of olivine basalt from 20 March - 12 April 2010. Geodetic and seismic observations revealed the growth of an intrusive complex in the roots of the volcano during three months prior to eruptions. After initial horizontal growth, modelling indicates both horizontal and sub-vertical growth in three weeks prior the first eruption. The behaviour is attributed to subsurface variations in crustal stress and strength originating from complicated volcano foundations. A low-density layer may capture magma allowing pressure to build before an intrusion can ascend towards higher levels. The intrusive complex was formed by olivine basalt as erupted on the volcano flank 20 March - 12 April; the intrusive growth halted at the onset of this eruption. Deformation associated with the eruption onset was minor as the dike had reached close to the surface in the days before. Isolated eruptive vents opening on long-dormant volcanoes may represent magma leaking upwards from extensive pre-eruptive intrusions formed at depth. A deflation source activated during the summit eruption of trachyandesite is distinct from, and adjacent to, all documented sources of inflation in the volcano roots. Olivine basalt magma which recharged the volcano appears to have triggered the summit eruption, although the exact mode of triggering is uncertain. Scenarios include stress triggering or propagation of olivine basalt into more evolved magma. The trachyandesite includes crystals that can be remnants of minor recent intrusion of olivine basalt. Alternatively, mixing of larger portion of olivine basalt with more evolved magma may have occurred. Intrusions may lead to eruptions not only when they find their way to the surface; at Eyjafjallajökull our observation show how primitive melts in an intrusive complex active since 1992 catalyzed an explosive eruption of trachyandesite. Eyjafjallajökull’s behaviour can be attributed to its off-rift setting with a relatively cold subsurface structure and limited magma at shallow depth, as may be typical for moderately active volcanoes. Clear signs of volcanic unrest signals over years to weeks may indicate reawakening of such volcanoes whereas immediate short-term precursors may be subtle and difficult to detect.

The frequency of explosive volcanic eruptions in Southeast Asia.

PubMed

Whelley, Patrick L; Newhall, Christopher G; Bradley, Kyle E

There are ~750 active and potentially active volcanoes in Southeast Asia. Ash from eruptions of volcanic explosivity index 3 (VEI 3) and smaller pose mostly local hazards while eruptions of VEI ≥ 4 could disrupt trade, travel, and daily life in large parts of the region. We classify Southeast Asian volcanoes into five groups, using their morphology and, where known, their eruptive history and degassing style. Because the eruptive histories of most volcanoes in Southeast Asia are poorly constrained, we assume that volcanoes with similar morphologies have had similar eruption histories. Eruption histories of well-studied examples of each morphologic class serve as proxy histories for understudied volcanoes in the class. From known and proxy eruptive histories, we estimate that decadal probabilities of VEI 4-8 eruptions in Southeast Asia are nearly 1.0, ~0.6, ~0.15, ~0.012, and ~0.001, respectively.

Fundamental changes in the activity of the natrocarbonatite volcano Oldoinyo Lengai, Tanzania

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kervyn, M.; Ernst, G.G.J.; Keller, J.; Vaughan, R. Greg; Klaudius, J.; Pradal, E.; Belton, F.; Mattsson, H.B.; Mbede, E.; Jacobs, P.M.

2010-01-01

On September 4, 2007, after 25 years of effusive natrocarbonatite eruptions, the eruptive activity of Oldoinyo Lengai (OL), N Tanzania, changed abruptly to episodic explosive eruptions. This transition was preceded by a voluminous lava eruption in March 2006, a year of quiescence, resumption of natrocarbonatite eruptions in June 2007, and a volcano-tectonic earthquake swarm in July 2007. Despite the lack of ground-based monitoring, the evolution in OL eruption dynamics is documented based on the available field observations, ASTER and MODIS satellite images, and almost-daily photos provided by local pilots. Satellite data enabled identification of a phase of voluminous lava effusion in the 2 weeks prior to the onset of explosive eruptions. After the onset, the activity varied from 100 m high ash jets to 2–15 km high violent, steady or unsteady, eruption columns dispersing ash to 100 km distance. The explosive eruptions built up a ∼400 m wide, ∼75 m high intra-crater pyroclastic cone. Time series data for eruption column height show distinct peaks at the end of September 2007 and February 2008, the latter being associated with the first pyroclastic flows to be documented at OL. Chemical analyses of the erupted products, presented in a companion paper (Keller et al.2010), show that the 2007–2008 explosive eruptions are associated with an undersaturated carbonated silicate melt. This new phase of explosive eruptions provides constraints on the factors causing the transition from natrocarbonatite effusive eruptions to explosive eruptions of carbonated nephelinite magma, observed repetitively in the last 100 years at OL.

1995 volcanic activity in Alaska and Kamchatka: summary of events and response of the Alaska Volcano Observatory

USGS Publications Warehouse

McGimsey, Robert G.; Neal, Christina A.

1996-01-01

The Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO) responded to eruptive activity or suspected volcanic activity (SVA) at 6 volcanic centers in 1995: Mount Martin (Katmai Group), Mount Veniaminof, Shishaldin, Makushin, Kliuchef/Korovin, and Kanaga. In addition to responding to eruptive activity at Alaska volcanoes, AVO also disseminated information for the Kamchatkan Volcanic Eruption Response Team (KVERT) on the 1995 eruptions of 2 Russian volcanoes: Bezymianny and Karymsky. This report summarizes volcanic activity in Alaska during 1995 and the AVO response, as well as information on the 2 Kamchatkan eruptions. Only those reports or inquiries that resulted in a "significant" investment of staff time and energy (here defined as several hours or more for reaction, tracking, and follow-up) are included. AVO typically receives dozens of phone calls throughout the year reporting steaming, unusual cloud sightings, or eruption rumors. Most of these are resolved quickly and are not tabulated here as part of the 1995 response record.

How will melting of ice affect volcanic hazards in the twenty-first century?

PubMed

Tuffen, Hugh

2010-05-28

Glaciers and ice sheets on many active volcanoes are rapidly receding. There is compelling evidence that melting of ice during the last deglaciation triggered a dramatic acceleration in volcanic activity. Will melting of ice this century, which is associated with climate change, similarly affect volcanic activity and associated hazards? This paper provides a critical overview of the evidence that current melting of ice will increase the frequency or size of hazardous volcanic eruptions. Many aspects of the link between ice recession and accelerated volcanic activity remain poorly understood. Key questions include how rapidly volcanic systems react to melting of ice, whether volcanoes are sensitive to small changes in ice thickness and how recession of ice affects the generation, storage and eruption of magma at stratovolcanoes. A greater frequency of collapse events at glaciated stratovolcanoes can be expected in the near future, and there is strong potential for positive feedbacks between melting of ice and enhanced volcanism. Nonetheless, much further research is required to remove current uncertainties about the implications of climate change for volcanic hazards in the twenty-first century.

Synergistic Use of Satellite Volcano Detection and Science: A Fifteen Year Perspective of ASTER on Terra

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramsey, M. S.

2014-12-01

The success of Terra-based observations using the ASTER instrument of active volcanic processes early in the mission gave rise to a funded NASA program designed to both increase the number of ASTER observations following an eruption and validate the satellite data. The urgent request protocol (URP) system for ASTER grew out of this initial study and has now operated in conjunction with and the support of the Alaska Volcano Observatory, the University of Alaska Fairbanks, the University of Hawaii, the USGS Land Processes DAAC, and the ASTER science team. The University of Pittsburgh oversees this rapid response/sensor-web system, which until 2011 had focused solely on the active volcanoes in the North Pacific region. Since that time, it has been expanded to operate globally with AVHRR and MODIS and now ASTER VNIR/TIR data are being acquired at numerous erupting volcanoes around the world. This program relies on the increased temporal resolution of AVHRR/MODIS midwave infrared data to trigger the next available ASTER observation, which results in ASTER data as frequently as every 2-5 days. For many targets, the URP has increased the observational frequency over active eruptions by as much 50%. The data have been used for operational response to new eruptions, longer-term scientific studies such as capturing detailed changes in lava domes/flows, pyroclastic flows and lahars. These data have also been used to infer the emplacement of new lava lobes, detect endogenous dome growth, and interpret hazardous dome collapse events. The emitted TIR radiance from lava surfaces has also been used effectively to model composition, texture and degassing. Now, this long-term archive of volcanic image data is being mined to provide statistics on the expectations of future high-repeat TIR data such as that proposed for the NASA HyspIRI mission. In summary, this operational/scientific program utilizing the unique properties of ASTER and the Terra mission has shown the potential for providing innovative and integrated synoptic measurements of geothermal activity, volcanic eruptions and their subsequent hazards globally.

Hydrothermal reservoir beneath Taal Volcano (Philippines): Implications to volcanic activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nagao, T.; Alanis, P. B.; Yamaya, Y.; Takeuchi, A.; Bornas, M. V.; Cordon, J. M.; Puertollano, J.; Clarito, C. J.; Hashimoto, T.; Mogi, T.; Sasai, Y.

2012-12-01

Taal Volcano is one of the most active volcanoes in the Philippines. The first recorded eruption was in 1573. Since then it has erupted 33 times resulting in thousands of casualties and large damages to property. In 1995, it was declared as one of the 15 Decade Volcanoes. Beginning in the early 1990s it has experienced several phases of abnormal activity, including seismic swarms, episodes of ground deformation, ground fissuring and hydrothermal activities, which continues up to the present. However, it has been noted that past historical eruptions of Taal Volcano may be divided into 2 distinct cycles, depending on the location of the eruption center, either at Main Crater or at the flanks. Between 1572-1645, eruptions occurred at the Main Crater, in 1707 to 1731, they occurred at the flanks. In 1749, eruptions moved back to the Main Crater until 1911. During the 1965 and until the end of the 1977 eruptions, eruptive activity once again shifted to the flanks. As part of the PHIVOLCS-JICA-SATREPS Project magnetotelluric and audio-magnetotelluric surveys were conducted on Volcano Island in March 2011 and March 2012. Two-dimensional (2-D) inversion and 3-D forward modeling reveals a prominent and large zone of relatively high resistivity between 1 to 4 kilometers beneath the volcano almost directly beneath the Main Crater, surrounded by zones of relatively low resistivity. This anomalous zone of high resistivity is hypothesized to be a large hydrothermal reservoir filled with volcanic fluids. The presence of this large hydrothermal reservoir could be related to past activities of Taal Volcano. In particular we believe that the catastrophic explosion described during the 1911 eruption was the result of the hydrothermal reservoir collapsing. During the cycle of Main Crater eruptions, this hydrothermal reservoir is depleted, while during a cycle of flank eruptions this reservoir is replenished with hydrothermal fluids.

2010 Volcanic activity in Alaska, Kamchatka, and the Kurile Islands: summary of events and response of the Alaska Volcano Observatory

USGS Publications Warehouse

Neal, Christina A.; Herrick, Julie; Girina, O.A.; Chibisova, Marina; Rybin, Alexander; McGimsey, Robert G.; Dixon, Jim

2014-01-01

The Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO) responded to eruptions, possible eruptions, volcanic unrest or suspected unrest at 12 volcanic centers in Alaska during 2010. The most notable volcanic activity consisted of intermittent ash emissions from long-active Cleveland volcano in the Aleutian Islands. AVO staff also participated in hazard communication regarding eruptions or unrest at seven volcanoes in Russia as part of an ongoing collaborative role in the Kamchatka and Sakhalin Volcanic Eruption Response Teams.

Ground-based weather radar remote sensing of volcanic ash explosive eruptions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marzano, F. S.; Marchiotto, S.; Barbieri, S.; Giuliani, G.; Textor, C.; Schneider, D. J.

2009-04-01

The explosive eruptions of active volcanoes with a consequent formation of ash clouds represent a severe threat in several regions of the urbanized world. During a Plinian or a sub-Plinian eruption the injection of large amounts of fine and coarse rock fragments and corrosive gases into the troposphere and lower stratosphere is usually followed by a long lasting ashfall which can cause a variety of damages. Volcanic ash clouds are an increasing hazard to aviation safety because of growing air traffic volumes that use more efficient and susceptible jet engines. Real-time and areal monitoring of a volcano eruption, in terms of its intensity and dynamics, is not always possible by conventional visual inspections, especially during worse visibility periods which are quite common during eruption activity. Remote sensing techniques both from ground and from space represent unique tools to be exploited. In this respect, microwave weather radars can gather three-dimensional information of atmospheric scattering volumes up several hundreds of kilometers, in all weather conditions, at a fairly high spatial resolution (less than a kilometer) and with a repetition cycle of few minutes. Ground-based radar systems represent one of the best methods for determining the height and volume of volcanic eruption clouds. Single-polarization Doppler radars can measure horizontally-polarized power echo and Doppler shift from which ash content and radial velocity can be, in principle, extracted. In spite of these potentials, there are still several open issues about microwave weather radar capabilities to detect and quantitatively retrieve ash cloud parameters. A major issue is related to the aggregation of volcanic ash particles within the eruption column of explosive eruptions which has been observed at many volcanoes. It influences the residence time of ash in the atmosphere and the radiative properties of the "umbrella" cloud. Numerical experiments are helpful to explore processes occurring in the eruption column. In this study we use the plume model ATHAM (Active Tracer High Resolution Atmospheric Model) to investigate, in both time and space, processes leading to particle aggregation in the eruption column. In this work a set of numerical simulations of radar reflectivity is performed with the ATHAM model, under the same experimental conditions except for the initial size distribution, i.e. varying the radii of average mass of the two particle dimension modes. A sensitivity analysis is carried out to evaluate the possible impact of aggregate particles on microwave radar reflectivity. It is shown how dimension, composition, temperature and mass concentration are the main characteristics of eruptive cloud particles that contribute to determine different radar reflectivity responses. In order to evaluate Rayleigh scattering approximation accuracy, the ATHAM simulations of radar reflectivity are used to compare in a detailed way the Mie and Rayleigh scattering regimes at S-, C- and X-band. The relationship between radar reflectivity factor and ash concentration has been statistically derived for the various particle classes by applying a new radar reflectivity microphysical model, which was developed starting from results of numerical experiments performed with plume model ATHAM. The ash retrieval physical-statistical algorithm is based on the backscattering microphysical model of volcanic cloud particles, used within a Bayesian classification and optimal regression algorithm. In order to illustrate the potential of this microwave active remote sensing technique, the case study of the eruption of Augustine volcano in Alaska in January 2006 is described. This event was the first time that a significant volcanic eruption was observed within the nominal range of a WSR-88D. The radar data, in conjunction with pilot reports, proved to be crucial in analyzing the height and movement of volcanic ash clouds during and immediately following each eruptive event. This data greatly aided National Weather Service meteorologists in the issuance of timely and accurate warning and advisory products to aviation, public, and marine interests. An application of the retrieval technique has been shown, taking into consideration the eruption of the Augustine volcano. Volume scan data from the NEXRAD WSR-88D S-band radar, which are located 190 km from the volcano vent, are processed to identify and estimate the particles concentration in an automatic fashion. The evolution of the Augustine Vulcanian eruption is discussed in terms of radar measurements products, pointing out the unique features, the current limitations and future improvements of radar remote sensing of volcanic plumes.

Forecasting eruptions of Mauna Loa Volcano, Hawaii

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Decker, Robert W.; Klein, Fred W.; Okamura, Arnold T.; Okubo, Paul G.

Past eruption patterns and various kinds of precursors are the two basic ingredients of eruption forecasts. The 39 historical eruptions of Mauna Loa from 1832 to 1984 have intervals as short as 104 days and as long as 9,165 days between the beginning of an eruption and the beginning of the next one. These recurrence times roughly fit a Poisson distribution pattern with a mean recurrence time of 1,459 days, yielding a probability of 22% (P=.22) for an eruption of Mauna Loa during any next year. The long recurrence times since 1950, however, suggest that the probability is not random, and that the current probability for an eruption during the next year may be as low as 6%. Seismicity beneath Mauna Loa increased for about two years prior to the 1975 and 1984 eruptions. Inflation of the summit area took place between eruptions with the highest rates occurring for a year or two before and after the 1975 and 1984 eruptions. Volcanic tremor beneath Mauna Loa began 51 minutes prior to the 1975 eruption and 115 minutes prior to the 1984 eruption. Eruption forecasts were published in 1975, 1976, and 1983. The 1975 and 1983 forecasts, though vaguely worded, were qualitatively correct regarding the timing of the next eruption. The 1976 forecast was more quantitative; it was wrong on timing but accurate on forecasting the location of the 1984 eruption. This paper urges that future forecasts be specific so they can be evaluated quantitatively.

Introduction to the 2012-2013 Tolbachik eruption special issue

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Edwards, Benjamin R.; Belousov, Alexander; Belousova, Marina; Volynets, Anna

2015-12-01

The Tolbachik volcanic complex in central Kamchatka holds a special place in global volcanological studies. It is one of 4 areas of extensive historic volcanic activity in the northern part of the Central Kamchatka Depression (the others being Klyuchevskoy, Bezymianny, Shiveluch), and is part of the Klyuchevskoy volcanic group, which is one of the most active areas of volcanism on Earth. Tolbachik is especially well-known due largely to the massive 1975-1976 eruption that became known as the Great Tolbachik Fissure eruption (GTFE; Fedotov, 1983; Fedotov et al., 1984). This was one of the first eruptions in Russia to be predicted based on precursory seismic activity, based on M5 earthquakes approximately one week before the eruption started, and was intensively studied during its course by a large number of Russian scientists. A summary of those studies was published, first in Russian and then in English, and it became widely read for many reasons. One in particular is that the eruption was somewhat unusual for a subduction zone setting; although many subduction zone stratovolcanoes have associated basaltic tephra cone-lava fields, this was the first such Hawaiian-style eruption to be widely observed. After the end of the eruption in 1976, the complex showed no signs of activity until 27 November 2012, when increased seismic activity was registered by the Kamchatka Branch of the Russian Geophysical Survey and a red glow from the eruption site was first noticed through the snowstorm haze. This prompted them, and then the Kamchatka Volcanic Emergency Response Team (KVERT) to issue an alert that activity was coming from the south flank of Plosky Tolbachik volcano, the younger of two volcanic edifices (the older is Ostry Tolbachik) that together make up the bulk of the complex along with tephra cone-lava fields that lie along a NE-SW fissure zone that transects Plosky Tolbachik. The new eruption lasted for more than 250 days and, like the 1975-1976 eruption, was dominated by Hawaiian-style activity. With the start of the eruption coinciding with the onset of winter months in Kamchatka, field observations, while virtually continuous, were also not as numerous as those that documented the GTFE 36 years previously. Nonetheless the Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (IVS) in Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky provided almost continuous field-based coverage throughout the eruption. Many of the research projects begun during the eruption comprise international teams of scientists who were able to partner with IVS through international funding, particularly through the United States National Science Foundation and the National Geographic Committee for Research.

Setting of the Father's Day Eruption at Kilauea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Swanson, D. A.

2007-12-01

The Father's Day eruption and associated intrusion took place within a 10-km segment of Kilauea's east rift zone between Hi`iaka and Napau Craters--a segment that has had more numerous eruptions and intrusions than any other of comparable length during the past 200, probably the past 1000, years. Fifteen known eruptions started in this area in the past 200 years: 1840, 1922, 1923, 1962, August and October 1963, March and December 1965, August and October 1968, February and May 1969, May and November 1973, and March 1980 (only 3 cubic meters!). Three others, not previously designated as distinct eruptions despite having all the appropriate characteristics, took place during on-going eruptions: two in `Alo`i Crater in 1970 and 1972, and one in Napau Crater in 1997. Two of the largest shields on the east rift zone formed during long-lasting eruptions within this area--Kane Nui o Hamo at an unknown date, perhaps the 11-12th century, and Mauna Ulu (1969-1974). In addition, many small intrusions without eruptions are known. Seven short eruptions punctuated a prolonged eruption: four within the segment during the Mauna Ulu eruption, two at the summit and southwest rift zone during that same eruption, and one in Napau Crater in 1997 during the Pu`u `O`o eruption. Thus the Father's Day eruption is not unique by virtue of taking place during an ongoing eruption elsewhere along the rift zone. The increased frequency of activity in the segment during the 20th century is obvious, particularly after 1962. For most of the past 1,000 years, eruptions were centered at Kilauea's summit, with significant but lesser activity along the rift zones. A large summit deflation in 1924 ended the nearly continuous lava lake in Halemaumau, eventually leading to the past 5 decades of dominantly east rift zone activity. This segment of the rift zone contains most of the pit craters on Kilauea and gradually changes from a SE trend near the caldera to an ENE trend that characterizes the rest of the zone. The Koa`e fault system joins the east rift zone at the curve. The complex structural setting likely affects the frequency of magmatic activity in the segment. All of the eruptive and intrusive activity results in storage of isolated magma bodies. Not surprisingly, petrologists find evidence that summit magma mixes with stored, fractionated magma. The area near Makaopuhi Crater and Kane Nui o Hamo is a particular focus, inferred since the mid-1960s to harbor a shallow magma reservoir. All of the eruptions and intrusions are accompanied by sharp deflation and shallow seismicity at the summit and shallow seismicity and uplift along the intrusion or eruptive fissures. Most often, no seismicity occurs between the summit and the area of intrusion or eruption. Within that area, seismicity commonly migrates downrift but occasionally uprift. Similarly, crack opening generally progresses downrift, with a few exceptions. Cracks generally trend about 65 degrees and can be either left- or right-stepping. Cracks open along azimuths of 155-175, with local exceptions. There is no structural difference between eruptive cracks (fissures) and non- eruptive cracks. Single eruptive fissures rarely exceed 200 m in length, instead stepping within en echelon zones above a presumably linear dike. Since the late 1960s, widening has been measured across the active area during eruptions and intrusions, first by EDM and then by satellite-based systems. The opening is nearly symmetrical within the rift zone, but farther out the north flank barely responds whereas the south flank moves seaward. Available leveling data show uplift on either side of the dike and subsidence along the crest. Examples of deformation in the 1960s and 1970s will be presented, and bibliographic references to past activity will be available.

Forecasting volcanic ash dispersal and coeval resuspension during the April-May 2015 Calbuco eruption

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reckziegel, F.; Bustos, E.; Mingari, L.; Báez, W.; Villarosa, G.; Folch, A.; Collini, E.; Viramonte, J.; Romero, J.; Osores, S.

2016-07-01

Atmospheric dispersion of volcanic ash from explosive eruptions or from subsequent fallout deposit resuspension causes a range of impacts and disruptions on human activities and ecosystems. The April-May 2015 Calbuco eruption in Chile involved eruption and resuspension activities. We overview the chronology, effects, and products resulting from these events, in order to validate an operational forecast strategy for tephra dispersal. The modelling strategy builds on coupling the meteorological Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF/ARW) model with the FALL3D dispersal model for eruptive and resuspension processes. The eruption modelling considers two distinct particle granulometries, a preliminary first guess distribution used operationally when no field data was available yet, and a refined distribution based on field measurements. Volcanological inputs were inferred from eruption reports and results from an Argentina-Chilean ash sample data network, which performed in-situ sampling during the eruption. In order to validate the modelling strategy, results were compared with satellite retrievals and ground deposit measurements. Results indicate that the WRF-FALL3D modelling system can provide reasonable forecasts in both eruption and resuspension modes, particularly when the adjusted granulometry is considered. The study also highlights the importance of having dedicated datasets of active volcanoes furnishing first-guess model inputs during the early stages of an eruption.

Use of satellite data in volcano monitoring

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mcclelland, Lindsay

1987-01-01

It is argued that Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) data, especially data on sulfur dioxide detection in volcanic clouds, and weather satellite data complement each other. TOMS data is most useful for discovering previously unknown eruptions and indicating a minimum volume of SO sub 2 produced by a given eruption. Once an eruption has been reported, weather satellite data can be used to accurately monitor its progress. To be used effectively, these data need to be analyzed jointly and in real time. Toward this end, it is hoped that full and timely utilization can be made of existing TOMS data, a polar orbiting TOMS can be launched in the near future, and that TOMS type instruments can be included on future geostationary satellites.

A new approach to investigate an eruptive paroxysmal sequence using camera and strainmeter networks: Lessons from the 3-5 December 2015 activity at Etna volcano

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonaccorso, A.; Calvari, S.

2017-10-01

Explosive sequences are quite common at basaltic and andesitic volcanoes worldwide. Studies aimed at short-term forecasting are usually based on seismic and ground deformation measurements, which can be used to constrain the source region and quantify the magma volume involved in the eruptive process. However, during single episodes of explosive sequences, integration of camera remote sensing and geophysical data are scant in literature, and the total volume of pyroclastic products is not determined. In this study, we calculate eruption parameters for four powerful lava fountains occurring at the main and oldest Mt. Etna summit crater, Voragine, between 3 and 5 December 2015. These episodes produced impressive eruptive columns and plume clouds, causing lapilli and ash fallout to more than 100 km away. We analyse these paroxysmal events by integrating the images recorded by a network of monitoring cameras and the signals from three high-precision borehole strainmeters. From the camera images we calculated the total erupted volume of fluids (gas plus pyroclastics), inferring amounts from 1.9 ×109 m3 (first event) to 0.86 ×109 m3 (third event). Strain changes recorded during the first and most powerful event were used to constrain the depth of the source. The ratios of strain changes recorded at two stations during the four lava fountains were used to constrain the pyroclastic fraction for each eruptive event. The results revealed that the explosive sequence was characterized by a decreasing trend of erupted pyroclastics with time, going from 41% (first event) to 13% (fourth event) of the total erupted pyroclastic volume. Moreover, the volume ratio fluid/pyroclastic decreased markedly in the fourth and last event. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first time ever that erupted volumes of both fluid and pyroclastics have been estimated for an explosive sequence from a monitoring system using permanent cameras and high precision strainmeters. During future explosive paroxysmal sequences this new approach might help in monitoring their evolution also to understand when/if they are going to finish. Knowledge of the total gas and pyroclastic fractions erupted during each lava fountain episode would improve our understanding of their processes and eruptive behaviour.

NEW ASPECTS OF A LID-REMOVAL MECHANISM IN THE ONSET OF AN ERUPTION SEQUENCE THAT PRODUCED A LARGE SOLAR ENERGETIC PARTICLE (SEP) EVENT

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sterling, Alphonse C.; Moore, Ronald L.; Falconer, David A.

We examine a sequence of two ejective eruptions from a single active region on 2012 January 23, using magnetograms and EUV images from the Solar Dynamics Observatory's (SDO) Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) and Atmospheric and Imaging Assembly (AIA), and EUV images from STEREO/EUVI. This sequence produced two coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and a strong solar energetic particle event (SEP); here we focus on the magnetic onset of this important space weather episode. Cheng et al. showed that the first eruption's ({sup E}ruption 1{sup )} flux rope was apparent only in ''hotter'' AIA channels, and that it removed overlying field thatmore » allowed the second eruption ({sup E}ruption 2{sup )} to begin via ideal MHD instability; here we say that Eruption 2 began via a ''lid removal'' mechanism. We show that during Eruption 1's onset, its flux rope underwent a ''tether weakening'' (TW) reconnection with field that arched from the eruption-source active region to an adjacent active region. Standard flare loops from Eruption 1 developed over Eruption 2's flux rope and enclosed filament, but these overarching new loops were unable to confine that flux rope/filament. Eruption 1's flare loops, from both TW reconnection and standard-flare-model internal reconnection, were much cooler than Eruption 2's flare loops (GOES thermal temperatures of ∼7.5 MK and 9 MK, compared to ∼14 MK). The corresponding three sequential GOES flares were, respectively, due to TW reconnection plus earlier phase Eruption 1 tether-cutting reconnection, Eruption 1 later-phase tether-cutting reconnection, and Eruption 2 tether-cutting reconnection.« less

Volcanology: Lessons learned from Synthetic Aperture Radar imagery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pinel, V.; Poland, M. P.; Hooper, A.

2014-12-01

Twenty years of continuous Earth observation by satellite SAR have resulted in numerous new insights into active volcanism, including a better understanding of subsurface magma storage and transport, deposition of volcanic materials on the surface, and the structure and development of volcanic edifices. This massive archive of data has resulted in fundamental leaps in our understanding of how volcanoes work - for example, identifying magma accumulation at supposedly quiescent volcanoes, even in remote areas or in the absence of ground-based data. In addition, global compilations of volcanic activity facilitate comparison of deformation behavior between different volcanic arcs and statistical evaluation of the strong link between deformation and eruption. SAR data are also increasingly used in timely hazard evaluation thanks to decreases in data latency and growth in processing and analysis techniques. The existing archive of SAR imagery is on the cusp of being enhanced by a new generation of satellite SAR missions, in addition to ground-based and airborne SAR systems, which will provide enhanced temporal and spatial resolution, broader geographic coverage, and improved availability of data to the scientific community. Now is therefore an opportune time to review the contributions of SAR imagery to volcano science, monitoring, and hazard mitigation, and to explore the future potential for SAR in volcanology. Provided that the ever-growing volume of SAR data can be managed effectively, we expect the future application of SAR data to expand from being a research tool for analyzing volcanic activity after the fact, to being a monitoring and research tool capable of imaging a wide variety of processes on different temporal and spatial scales as those processes are occurring. These data can then be used to develop new models of how volcanoes work and to improve quantitative forecasts of volcanic activity as a means of mitigating risk from future eruptions.

Unusual Volcanic Products From the 2008 Eruption at Volcan Llaima, Chile

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sweeney, D. C.; Hughes, M.; Calder, E. S.; Cortes, J.; Valentine, G.; Whelley, P.; Lara, L.

2009-05-01

Volcan Llaima, a snow-covered basaltic andesite stratocone in southern Chile (38 41' S, 71 44' W, 3179 m a.s.l.), erupted on 1 January 2008 with a fire fountain display lasting 14 hours. Elevated activity continues to date with mild to moderate strombolian activity occurring from two nested scoria cones in the summit crater and with occasional lava flows from crater overflow. The eruption displayed contrasting styles of activity emanating from different parts of the edifice that may provide some unique insight into the upper level plumbing system. Furthermore, the activity has provided an excellent chance to study the transition of a normally passive degassing system into a violent eruptive cycle. A field study of the eruptive products from this eruption was completed in January 2009, where sampling was carried out from the tephra fall, lava flows, lahar deposits and even small pyroclastic flow deposits. The scoria samples collected suggest a mixture of two magmas involved in the initial violent, fire fountaining activity from the summit. Additionally, they exhibit a variety of unusual textures, including rapidly-quenched, dense lava 'balls' - generated at the front of the lava flows traveling through ice, as well as cauliflower-textured tephra from explosive eruptions though ice. This presentation comprises our observations and preliminary interpretations concerning the processes that occurred during this unique eruption.

The 1909 Chinyero eruption on Tenerife (Canary Islands): insights from historical accounts, and tephrostratigraphic and geochemical data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Di Roberto, A.; Bertagnini, A.; Del Carlo, P.; Meletlidis, S.; Pompilio, M.

2016-12-01

The last eruption on Tenerife (Canary Islands, Spain) started on 18 November 1909 from the El Chinyero vent on the northwestern Santiago rift. This fissural eruption was well documented by scientists and eyewitnesses, but there is a lack of data on the high-energy phase that produced the most significant emissions of ash and lapilli at the onset of the eruption. Here, we review historical documents (e.g. newspapers, dispatches, telegrams); eyewitness accounts and scientific reports were reviewed from a volcanological perspective and integrated with data from the analysis of deposit features, allowing an accurate reconstruction of the eruption and its dynamics. The 1909 eruption of Chinyero was fed by a compositionally discrete magma batch that ascended rapidly within the crust, producing rather violent pulsating Strombolian explosive activity in the early phases of the eruption. This activity produced a ca. 80 m high scoria cone and heavy fallout of lapilli and ash over the entire northern sector of the island of Tenerife. The energy of explosive activity waned after 3 days, giving way to the weak Strombolian explosive activity that contributed to a lesser extent to the buildup of the pyroclastic pile. Eruptions such as those from the Chinyero vent in 1909 are representative of rift activity on Tenerife and constitute a volcanic hazard for present-day inhabitants.

Constraints of texture and composition of clinopyroxene phenocrysts of Holocene volcanic rocks on a magmatic plumbing system beneath Tengchong, SW China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Jun-Hao; Song, Xie-Yan; He, Hai-Long; Zheng, Wen-Qin; Yu, Song-Yue; Chen, Lie-Meng; Lai, Chun-Kit

2018-04-01

Understanding processes of magma replenishment in a magma plumbing system is essential to predict eruption potential of a dormant volcano. In this study, we present new petrologic and thermobarometric data for youngest lava flows from the Holocene Heikongshan volcano in the Tengchong area, SW China. Clinopyroxene phenocrysts from the trachytic lava flows display various textural/compositional zoning styles (i.e., normal, reverse and oscillatory). Such zoning patterns are indicative of an open magmatic plumbing system with multiphase magma replenishment and mixing, which were likely a key drive of the volcanic eruptions. Thermobarometric calculations of these zoned clinopyroxene phenocrysts yield crystallization pressures of 3.8-7.1 kbar (peak at 4.5-7.0 kbar), corresponding to a magma chamber at depths of 14-21 km. The calculated depths are consistent with the large low-resistivity body at 12-30 km beneath the Heikongshan volcano, implying that the magmatic plumbing system may still be active. Recent earthquakes in the Tengchong area suggest that the regional strike-slip faulting are still active, and may trigger future volcanic eruptions if the magma chamber(s) beneath the Tengchong volcanic field is disturbed, in spite of the volcanic quiescence since 1609 CE.

DIRECT SPATIAL ASSOCIATION OF AN X-RAY FLARE WITH THE ERUPTION OF A SOLAR QUIESCENT FILAMENT

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Holman, Gordon D.; Foord, Adi, E-mail: gordon.d.holman@nasa.gov

Solar flares primarily occur in active regions. Hard X-ray flares have been found to occur only in active regions. They are often associated with the eruption of active region filaments and coronal mass ejections (CMEs). CMEs can also be associated with the eruption of quiescent filaments, not located in active regions. Here we report the first identification of a solar X-ray flare outside an active region observed by the Ramaty High Energy Solar Spectroscopic Imager (RHESSI). The X-ray emission was directly associated with the eruption of a long, quiescent filament and fast CME. Images from RHESSI show this flare emissionmore » to be located along a section of the western ribbon of the expanding, post-eruption arcade. EUV images from the Solar Dynamics Observatory Atmospheric Imaging Assembly show no connection between this location and nearby active regions. Therefore the flare emission is found not to be located in or associated with an active region. However, a nearby, small, magnetically strong dipolar region provides a likely explanation for the existence and location of the flare X-ray emission. This emerging dipolar region may have also triggered the filament eruption.« less

2009 Volcanic activity in Alaska, Kamchatka, and the Kurile Islands: summary of events and response of the Alaska Volcano Observatory

USGS Publications Warehouse

McGimsey, Robert G.; Neal, Christina A.; Girina, Olga A.; Chibisova, Marina; Rybin, Alexander

2014-01-01

The Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO) responded to eruptions, possible eruptions, volcanic unrest, and reports of unusual activity at or near eight separate volcanic centers in Alaska during 2009. The year was highlighted by the eruption of Redoubt Volcano, one of three active volcanoes on the western side of Cook Inlet and near south-central Alaska's population and commerce centers, which comprise about 62 percent of the State's population of 710,213 (2010 census). AVO staff also participated in hazard communication and monitoring of multiple eruptions at ten volcanoes in Russia as part of its collaborative role in the Kamchatka and Sakhalin Volcanic Eruption Response Teams.

Lessons learned from the 2010 evacuations at Merapi volcano

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mei, Estuning Tyas Wulan; Lavigne, Franck; Picquout, Adrien; de Bélizal, Edouard; Brunstein, Daniel; Grancher, Delphine; Sartohadi, Junun; Cholik, Noer; Vidal, Céline

2013-07-01

The rapid onset and large magnitude of the 2010 eruption of Merapi posed significant challenges for evacuations and resulted in a peak number of almost 400,000 Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs). A pre-existing hazard map and an evacuation plan based on the relatively small magnitude of previous eruptions of the 20th century were utilized by emergency officials during the initial phase of the eruption (25 October-3 November, 2010). However, when the magnitude of the eruption increased greatly on 3-5 November 2010, the initial evacuation plan had to be abandoned as danger zones were expanded rapidly and the scale and pace of the evacuation increased dramatically. Fortunately, orders to evacuate were communicated quickly through a variety of communication methods and as a result many thousands of lives were saved. However, there were also problems that resulted from this rapid and larger-than-expected evacuation; and there were lessons learned that can improve future mass evacuations at Merapi and other volcanoes. We analyzed the results of 1969 questionnaires and conducted a series of interviews with community leaders and emergency officials. Results were compiled for periods both during and after the 2010 eruption. Our results show that: (1) trust in the Indonesian government and volcanologists was very high after the eruption; (2) multiple modes of communication were used to relay warnings and evacuation orders; (3) 50% to 70% of IDPs returned to the danger zone during the crisis despite evacuation orders; (4) preparation before the eruption was critical to the successes and included improvements to roads and education programs, (5) public education about hazards and evacuation protocols before the eruption was focused in the perceived highest danger zone where it was effective yet, confusion and loss of life in other areas demonstrated that education programs in all hazard zones are needed to prepare for larger-than-normal eruptions, and (6) improvements in registration of evacuees, in providing for livestock, and in activities and work programs in evacuation camps (as well as government restrictions and policy changes) are also needed to prevent evacuees from returning to their homes during the crisis period.

Volcano hazards in the Three Sisters region, Oregon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Scott, William E.; Iverson, R.M.; Schilling, S.P.; Fisher, B.J.

2001-01-01

Three Sisters is one of three potentially active volcanic centers that lie close to rapidly growing communities and resort areas in Central Oregon. Two types of volcanoes exist in the Three Sisters region and each poses distinct hazards to people and property. South Sister, Middle Sister, and Broken Top, major composite volcanoes clustered near the center of the region, have erupted repeatedly over tens of thousands of years and may erupt explosively in the future. In contrast, mafic volcanoes, which range from small cinder cones to large shield volcanoes like North Sister and Belknap Crater, are typically short-lived (weeks to centuries) and erupt less explosively than do composite volcanoes. Hundreds of mafic volcanoes scattered through the Three Sisters region are part of a much longer zone along the High Cascades of Oregon in which birth of new mafic volcanoes is possible. This report describes the types of hazardous events that can occur in the Three Sisters region and the accompanying volcano-hazard-zonation map outlines areas that could be at risk from such events. Hazardous events include landslides from the steep flanks of large volcanoes and floods, which need not be triggered by eruptions, as well as eruption-triggered events such as fallout of tephra (volcanic ash) and lava flows. A proximal hazard zone roughly 20 kilometers (12 miles) in diameter surrounding the Three Sisters and Broken Top could be affected within minutes of the onset of an eruption or large landslide. Distal hazard zones that follow river valleys downstream from the Three Sisters and Broken Top could be inundated by lahars (rapid flows of water-laden rock and mud) generated either by melting of snow and ice during eruptions or by large landslides. Slow-moving lava flows could issue from new mafic volcanoes almost anywhere within the region. Fallout of tephra from eruption clouds can affect areas hundreds of kilometers (miles) downwind, so eruptions at volcanoes elsewhere in the Cascade Range also contribute to volcano hazards in Central Oregon. This report is intended to aid scientists, government officials, and citizens as they work together to reduce the risk from volcano hazards through public education and emergency-response planning.

Eruptive History and Chemical Evolution of the Precaldera and Postcaldera Basalt-Dacite Sequences, Long Valley, California: Implications for Magma Sources, Current Seismic Unrest, and Future Volcanism

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bailey, Roy A.

2004-01-01

The Long Valley Volcanic Field in east-central California straddles the East Sierran frontal fault zone, overlapping the Sierra Nevada and western Basin and Range Provinces. The volcanic field overlies a mature mid-Tertiary erosional surface that truncates a basement composed mainly of Mesozoic plutons and associated roof pendants of Mesozoic metavolcanic and Paleozoic metasedimentary rocks. Long Valley volcanism began about 4 Ma during Pliocene time and has continued intermittently through the Holocene. The volcanism is separable into two basalt-rhyolite episodes: (1) an earlier, precaldera episode related to Long Valley Caldera that climaxed with eruption of the Bishop Tuff and collapse of the caldera; and (2) a later, postcaldera episode structurally related to the north-south-trending Mono-Inyo Craters fissure system, which extends from the vicinity of Mammoth Mountain northward through the west moat of the caldera to Mono Lake. Eruption of the basalt-dacite sequence of the precaldera basalt-rhyolite episode peaked volumetrically between 3.8 and 2.5 Ma; few basalts were erupted during the following 1.8 m.y. (2.5?0.7 Ma). Volcanism during this interval was dominated by eruption of the voluminous rhyolites of Glass Mountain (2.2?0.8 Ma) and formation of the Bishop Tuff magma chamber. Catastrophic rupture of the roof of this magma chamber caused eruption of the Bishop Tuff and collapse of Long Valley Caldera (760 ka), after which rhyolite eruptions resumed on the subsided caldera floor. The earliest postcaldera rhyolite flows (700?500 ka) contain quenched globular basalt enclaves (mafic magmatic inclusions), indicating that basaltic magma had reentered shallow parts of the magmatic system after a 1.8-m.y. hiatus. Later, at about 400 ka, copious basalts, as well as dacites, began erupting from vents mainly in the west moat of the caldera. These later eruptions initiated the postcaldera basalt-rhyolite episode related to the Mono-Inyo Craters fissure system, which has been active through late Pleistocene and Holocene time.

Radiative and Dynamical Feedbacks Limit the Climate Response to Extremely Large Volcanic Eruptions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wade, D. C.; Vidal, C. M.; Keeble, J. M.; Griffiths, P. T.; Archibald, A. T.

2017-12-01

Explosive volcanic eruptions are a major cause of chemical and climatic perturbations to the atmosphere, injecting chemically and radiatively active species such as sulfur dioxide (SO2) into the stratosphere. The rate determining step for sulfate aerosol production is SO2 + OH +M → HSO3 +M. This means that chemical feedbacks on the hydroxyl radical, OH, can modulate the production rate of sulfate aerosol and hence the climate effects of large volcanic eruptions. Radiative feedbacks due to aerosols, ozone and sulfur dioxide and subsequent dynamical changes also affect the evolution of the aerosol cloud. Here we assess the role of radiative and chemical feedbacks on sulfate aerosol production using UM-UKCA, a chemistry-climate model coupled to GLOMAP, a prognostic modal aerosol model. A 200 Tg (10x Pinatubo) emission scenario is investigated. Accounting for radiative feedbacks, the SO2 lifetime is 55 days compared to 26 days in the baseline 20 Tg (1x Pinatubo) simulation. By contrast, if all radiative feedbacks are neglected the lifetime is 73 days. Including radiative feedbacks reduces the SO2 lifetime: heating of the lower stratosphere by aerosol increases upwelling and increases transport of water vapour across the tropopause, increasing OH concentrations. The maximum effective radius of the aerosol particles increases from 1.09 µm to 1.34 µm as the production of aerosol is quicker. Larger and fewer aerosol particles are produced which are less effective at scattering shortwave radiation and will more quickly sediment from the stratosphere. As a result, the resulting climate cooling by the eruption will be less strong when accounting for these radiative feedbacks. We illustrate the consequences of these effects for the 1257 Samalas eruption, the largest common era volcanic eruption, using UM-UKCA in a coupled atmosphere-ocean configuration. As a potentially halogen rich eruption, we investigate the differing ozone response to halogen-rich and halogen-poor eruption scenarios against a pre-industrial baseline climate. This has important implications for future volcanic eruptions as ClOx reduces in response to the cessation of chlorofluorocarbon emissions.

Earth Observation

NASA Image and Video Library

2013-10-29

ISS037-E-022473 (29 Oct. 2013) --- La Malinche Volcano, Mexico is featured in this image photo graphed by an Expedition 37 crew member on the International Space Station. Located approximately 30 kilometers to the northeast of the city of Puebla, the summit of Volcan la Malinche rises to an elevation of 4,461 meters above sea level. This detailed photograph highlights the snow-dusted summit, and the deep canyons that cut into the flanks of this eroded stratovolcano. La Malinche has not been historically active, but radiometric dating of volcanic rocks and deposits associated with the structure indicate a most recent eruption near the end of the 12th century. NASA scientists cite evidence that lahars, or mudflows, associated with an eruption about 3,100 years ago, affected Pre-Columbian settlements in the nearby Puebla basin. The volcano is enclosed within La Malinche National Park situated within parts of the states of Puebla and Tlaxcala; extensive green forest cover is visible on the lower flanks of the volcano. Access to the volcano is available through roadways, and it is frequently used as a training peak by climbers prior to attempting higher summits. The rectangular outlines of agricultural fields are visible forming an outer ring around the forested area. While the volcano appears to be quiescent, its relatively recent (in geological terms) eruptive activity, and location within the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt– a tectonically active region with several current and historically active volcanoes including Popocatepetl to the west and Pico de Orizaba to the east - suggests that future activity is still possible and could potentially pose a threat to the nearby city of Puebla.

New Aspects of a Lid-Removal Mechanism in the Onset of a SEP-Producing Eruption Sequence

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sterling, Alphonse C.; Moore, Ronald L.; Falconer, David A.; Knox, Javon M.

2014-01-01

We examine a sequence of two ejective eruptions from a single active region on 2012 January 23, using magnetograms and EUV images from SDO/HMI and SDO/AIA, and EUV images from STEREO. Cheng et al. (2013) showed that the first eruption's ("Eruption 1'') flux rope was apparent only in "hotter'' AIA channels, and that it removed overlying field that allowed the second eruption (``Eruption 2'') to begin via ideal MHD instability; here we say Eruption 2 began via a ``lid removal'' mechanism. We show that during Eruption-1's onset, its flux rope underwent ``tether weakening'' (TW) reconnection with the field of an adjacent active region. Standard flare loops from Eruption 1 developed over Eruption-2's flux rope and enclosed filament, but these overarching new loops were unable to confine that flux rope/filament. Eruption-1's flare loops, from both TW reconnection and standard-flare-model internal reconnection, were much cooler than Eruption-2's flare loops (GOES thermal temperatures of approx. 9 MK compared to approx. 14 MK). This eruption sequence produced a strong solar energetic particle (SEP) event (10 MeV protons, >10(exp 3) pfu for 43 hrs), apparently starting when Eruption-2's CME blasted through Eruption-1's CME at 5-10 R_s. This occurred because the two CMEs originated in close proximity and in close time sequence: Eruption-1's fast rise started soon after the TW reconnection; the lid removal by Eruption-1's ejection triggered the slow onset of Eruption 2; and Eruption-2's CME, which started approx. 1 hr later, was three times faster than Eruption-1's CME.

Recurrent patterns in fluid geochemistry data prior to phreatic eruptions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rouwet, Dmitri; Sandri, Laura; Todesco, Micol; Tonini, Roberto; Pecoraino, Giovannella; Diliberto, Iole Serena

2016-04-01

Not all volcanic eruptions are magma-driven: the sudden evaporation and expansion of heated groundwater may cause phreatic eruptions, where the magma involvement is absent or negligible. Active crater lakes top some of the volcanoes prone to phreatic activity. This kind of eruption may occur suddenly, and without clear warning: on September 27, 2014 a phreatic eruption of Ontake, Japan, occurred without timely precursors, killing 57 tourists near the volcano summit. Phreatic eruptions can thus be as fatal as higher VEI events, due to the lack of recognised precursory signals, and because of their explosive and violent nature. In this study, we tackle the challenge of recognising precursors to phreatic eruptions, by analysing the records of two "phreatically" active volcanoes in Costa Rica, i.e. Poás and Turrialba, respectively with and without a crater lake. These volcanoes cover a wide range of time scales in eruptive behaviour, possibly culminating into magmatic activity, and have a long-term multi-parameter dataset mostly describing fluid geochemistry. Such dataset is suitable for being analysed by objective pattern recognition techniques, in search for recurrent schemes. The aim is to verify the existence and nature of potential precursory patterns, which will improve our understanding of phreatic events, and allow the assessment of the associated hazard at other volcanoes, such as Campi Flegrei or Vulcano, in Italy. Quantitative forecast of phreatic activity will be performed with BET_UNREST, a Bayesian Event Tree tool recently developed within the framework of FP7 EU VUELCO project. The study will combine the analysis of fluid geochemistry data with pattern recognition and phreatic eruption forecast on medium and short-term. The study will also provide interesting hints on the features that promote or hinder phreatic activity in volcanoes that host well-developed hydrothermal circulation.

Discovery of a Powerful, Transient, Explosive Thermal Event at Marduk Fluctus, Io, in Galileo NIMS Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davies, A. G.; Davies, R. L.; Veeder, G. J.; de Kleer, K.; de Pater, I.; Matson, D. L.; Johnson, T. V.; Wilson, L.

2018-04-01

Analysis of Galileo Near-Infrared Mapping Spectrometer observations of Marduk Fluctus, a volcano on the Jovian moon Io, reveals a style of volcanic activity not previously seen there—a powerful thermal event lasting only a few minutes in 1996. The thermal emission rapidly fades, suggesting extremely rapid cooling of small clasts. The duration and evolution of the explosive eruption are akin to what might be expected from a strombolian or vulcanian explosion. The presence of such events provides an additional volcanic process that can be imaged by future missions with the intent of determining lava composition from eruption temperature, an important constraint on the internal composition of Io. These data promise to be of particular use in understanding the mechanics of explosive volcanic processes on Io.

Volcanism in Iceland in historical time: Volcano types, eruption styles and eruptive history

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thordarson, T.; Larsen, G.

2007-01-01

The large-scale volcanic lineaments in Iceland are an axial zone, which is delineated by the Reykjanes, West and North Volcanic Zones (RVZ, WVZ, NVZ) and the East Volcanic Zone (EVZ), which is growing in length by propagation to the southwest through pre-existing crust. These zones are connected across central Iceland by the Mid-Iceland Belt (MIB). Other volcanically active areas are the two intraplate belts of Öræfajökull (ÖVB) and Snæfellsnes (SVB). The principal structure of the volcanic zones are the 30 volcanic systems, where 12 are comprised of a fissure swarm and a central volcano, 7 of a central volcano, 9 of a fissure swarm and a central domain, and 2 are typified by a central domain alone. Volcanism in Iceland is unusually diverse for an oceanic island because of special geological and climatological circumstances. It features nearly all volcano types and eruption styles known on Earth. The first order grouping of volcanoes is in accordance with recurrence of eruptions on the same vent system and is divided into central volcanoes (polygenetic) and basalt volcanoes (monogenetic). The basalt volcanoes are categorized further in accordance with vent geometry (circular or linear), type of vent accumulation, characteristic style of eruption and volcanic environment (i.e. subaerial, subglacial, submarine). Eruptions are broadly grouped into effusive eruptions where >95% of the erupted magma is lava, explosive eruptions if >95% of the erupted magma is tephra (volume calculated as dense rock equivalent, DRE), and mixed eruptions if the ratio of lava to tephra occupy the range in between these two end-members. Although basaltic volcanism dominates, the activity in historical time (i.e. last 11 centuries) features expulsion of basalt, andesite, dacite and rhyolite magmas that have produced effusive eruptions of Hawaiian and flood lava magnitudes, mixed eruptions featuring phases of Strombolian to Plinian intensities, and explosive phreatomagmatic and magmatic eruptions spanning almost the entire intensity scale; from Surtseyan to Phreatoplinian in case of "wet" eruptions and Strombolian to Plinian in terms of "dry" eruptions. In historical time the magma volume extruded by individual eruptions ranges from ˜1 m 3 to ˜20 km 3 DRE, reflecting variable magma compositions, effusion rates and eruption durations. All together 205 eruptive events have been identified in historical time by detailed mapping and dating of events along with extensive research on documentation of eruptions in historical chronicles. Of these 205 events, 192 represent individual eruptions and 13 are classified as "Fires", which include two or more eruptions defining an episode of volcanic activity that lasts for months to years. Of the 159 eruptions verified by identification of their products 124 are explosive, effusive eruptions are 14 and mixed eruptions are 21. Eruptions listed as reported-only are 33. Eight of the Fires are predominantly effusive and the remaining five include explosive activity that produced extensive tephra layers. The record indicates an average of 20-25 eruptions per century in Iceland, but eruption frequency has varied on time scale of decades. An apparent stepwise increase in eruption frequency is observed over the last 1100 years that reflects improved documentation of eruptive events with time. About 80% of the verified eruptions took place on the EVZ where the four most active volcanic systems (Grímsvötn, Bárdarbunga-Veidivötn, Hekla and Katla) are located and 9%, 5%, 1% and 0.5% on the RVZ-WVZ, NVZ, ÖVB, and SVB, respectively. Source volcano for ˜4.5% of the eruptions is not known. Magma productivity over 1100 years equals about 87 km 3 DRE with basaltic magma accounting for about 79% and intermediate and acid magma accounting for 16% and 5%, respectively. Productivity is by far highest on the EVZ where 71 km 3 (˜82%) were erupted, with three flood lava eruptions accounting for more than one half of that volume. RVZ-WVZ accounts for 13% of the magma and the NWZ and the intraplate belts for 2.5% each. Collectively the axial zone (RVZ, WVZ, NVZ) has only erupted 15-16% of total magma volume in the last 1130 years.

The 2006 lava dome eruption of Merapi Volcano (Indonesia): Detailed analysis using MODIS TIR

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carr, Brett B.; Clarke, Amanda B.; Vanderkluysen, Loÿc

2016-02-01

Merapi is one of Indonesia's most active and dangerous volcanoes. Prior to the 2010 VEI 4 eruption, activity at Merapi during the 20th century was characterized by the growth and collapse of a series of lava domes. Periods of very slow growth were punctuated by short episodes of increased eruption rates characterized by dome collapse-generated pyroclastic density currents (PDCs). An eruptive event of this type occurred in May-June, 2006. For effusive eruptions such as this, detailed extrusion rate records are important for understanding the processes driving the eruption and the hazards presented by the eruption. We use thermal infrared (TIR) images from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) instrument on NASA's Aqua and Terra satellites to estimate extrusion rates at Merapi Volcano during the 2006 eruption using the method of Harris and Ripepe (2007). We compile a set of 75 nighttime MODIS images of the eruptive period to produce a detailed time series of thermal radiance and extrusion rate that reveal multiple phases of the 2006 eruption. These data closely correspond to the published ground-based observational record and improve observation density and detail during the eruption sequence. Furthermore, additional analysis of radiance values for thermal anomalies in Band 21 (λ = 3.959 μm) of MODIS images results in a new framework for detecting different styles of activity. We successfully discriminate among slow dome growth, rapid dome growth, and PDC-producing dome collapse. We also demonstrate a positive correlation between PDC frequency and extrusion rate, and provide evidence that extrusion rate can increase in response to external events such as dome collapses or tectonic earthquakes. This study represents a new method of documenting volcanic activity that can be applied to other similar volcanic systems.

Diverse Eruptive Activity Revealed by Acoustic and Electromagnetic Observations of the 14 July 2013 Intense Vulcanian Eruption of Tungurahua Volcano, Ecuador

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderson, J. F.; Johnson, J. B.; Steele, A. L.; Ruiz, M. C.; Brand, B. D.

2018-04-01

During the powerful July 2013 eruption of Tungurahua volcano, Ecuador, we recorded exceptionally high amplitude, long-period infrasound (1,600-Pa peak-to-peak amplitude, 5.5-s period) on sensors within 2 km of the vent alongside electromagnetic signals from volcanic lightning serendipitously captured as interference. This explosion was one of Tungurahua's most powerful vulcanian eruptions since recent activity began in 1999, and its acoustic wave is among the most powerful volcanic infrasound ever recorded anywhere. We use these data to quantify erupted volume from the main explosion and to classify postexplosive degassing into distinct emission styles. Additionally, we demonstrate a highly effective method of recording lightning-related electromagnetic signals alongside infrasound. Detailed chronologies of powerful vulcanian eruptions are rare; this study demonstrates that diverse eruptive processes can occur in such eruptions and that near-vent infrasound and electromagnetic data can elucidate them.

The California Volcano Observatory: Monitoring the state's restless volcanoes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stovall, Wendy K.; Marcaida, Mae; Mangan, Margaret T.

2014-01-01

Volcanic eruptions happen in the State of California about as frequently as the largest earthquakes on the San Andreas Fault Zone. At least 10 eruptions have taken place in California in the past 1,000 years—most recently at Lassen Peak in Lassen Volcanic National Park (1914 to 1917) in the northern part of the State—and future volcanic eruptions are inevitable. The U.S. Geological Survey California Volcano Observatory monitors the State's potentially hazardous volcanoes.

2008 Volcanic activity in Alaska, Kamchatka, and the Kurile Islands: Summary of events and response of the Alaska Volcano Observatory

USGS Publications Warehouse

Neal, Christina A.; McGimsey, Robert G.; Dixon, James P.; Cameron, Cheryl E.; Nuzhdaev, Anton A.; Chibisova, Marina

2011-01-01

The Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO) responded to eruptions, possible eruptions, and volcanic unrest or suspected unrest at seven separate volcanic centers in Alaska during 2008. Significant explosive eruptions at Okmok and Kasatochi Volcanoes in July and August dominated Observatory operations in the summer and autumn. AVO maintained 24-hour staffing at the Anchorage facility from July 12 through August 28. Minor eruptive activity continued at Veniaminof and Cleveland Volcanoes. Observed volcanic unrest at Cook Inlet's Redoubt Volcano presaged a significant eruption in the spring of 2009. AVO staff also participated in hazard communication regarding eruptions or unrest at nine volcanoes in Russia as part of a collaborative role in the Kamchatka and Sakhalin Volcanic Eruption Response Teams.

Solar Eruptive Flares: from Physical Understanding to Probabilistic Forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Georgoulis, M. K.

2013-12-01

We describe a new, emerging physical picture of the triggering of major solar eruptions. First, we discuss and aim to interpret the single distinguishing feature of tight, shear-ridden magnetic polarity inversion lines (PILs) in solar active regions, where most of these eruptions occur. Then we analyze the repercussions of this feature, that acts to form increasingly helical pre-eruption structures. Eruptions, with the CME progenitor preceding the flare, tend to release parts of the accumulated magnetic free energy and helicity that are always much smaller than the respective budgets of the source active region. These eruption-related decreases, however, are not optimal for eruption forecasting - this role is claimed by physically intuitive proxy parameters that could show increased pre-eruption sensitivity at time scales practical for prediction. Concluding, we show how reconciling this new information - jointly enabled by the exceptional resolution and quality of Hinode and cadence of SDO data - can lead to advances in understanding that outline the current state-of-the-art of our eruption-forecasting capability.

2014 volcanic activity in Alaska: Summary of events and response of the Alaska Volcano Observatory

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cameron, Cheryl E.; Dixon, James P.; Neal, Christina A.; Waythomas, Christopher F.; Schaefer, Janet R.; McGimsey, Robert G.

2017-09-07

The Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO) responded to eruptions, possible eruptions, volcanic unrest or suspected unrest, and seismic events at 18 volcanic centers in Alaska during 2014. The most notable volcanic activity consisted of intermittent ash eruptions from long-active Cleveland and Shishaldin Volcanoes in the Aleutian Islands, and two eruptive episodes at Pavlof Volcano on the Alaska Peninsula. Semisopochnoi and Akutan volcanoes had seismic swarms, both likely the result of magmatic intrusion. The AVO also installed seismometers and infrasound instruments at Mount Cleveland during 2014.

Integration of video and infrasound to understand source locations and vent geometry at Erebus Volcano, Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, K. R.; Aster, R. C.; Johnson, J. B.; Kyle, P. R.; McIntosh, W. C.

2007-05-01

Infrasound monitoring at Erebus volcano has enabled us to quantify eruption energetics and precisely determine the source location of Strombolian eruptions. Since January 2006 we have operated a three-element network of identical infrasound pressure transducers, to track explosive eruptions, triangulate source locations of the eruptions, and distinguish activity from several vents with diverse activities. In December 2006 the network was expanded to six identical pressure transducers with improved azimuthal distribution sited ~300 m to 700 m from the erupting vents. These sensors have a dynamic range of +/-125 Pa and are able to record non-distorted waveforms for almost all eruptive events. Since January 2006, eruptions have been identified from locations within the ~40 m diameter phonolitic lava lake, an adjacent smaller "active vent", and a vent ~80 m distant from the lava lake known as "Werner's". Since late 2005 until the end of 2006, activity was considerably elevated at the "lava lake", from which frequent (up to six per day) explosions were noted. These events entailed gas bubble bursts, some of which were capable of ejecting bombs more than 1 km distant and producing infrasonic transients in excess of 100 Pa at a distance of 700 m. Activity from "Werner's" vent was much more subdued in terms of eruptive frequency and the radiated acoustic energy, with all signals less than about 5 Pa at 700 m. Activity from the "active vent" was also observed, though notably, these acoustic transients were extended in duration in terms of time (> 5 s to more than 30 s), which reflects extended duration ash-venting source mechanisms, corroborated by video records. The updated infrasound network has operated through a relative lull in eruptive intensity (November - December 2006 - January 2007). Since January 2007 more frequent and larger explosions from the lava lake have been observed and recorded with infrasound and video. We quantify this recent upsurge in lava lake activity and present speculative mechanisms to account for the variable eruptive behavior of Erebus lava lake.

Volatile emissions from Cascade cinder cone eruptions: Implications for future hazard assessments in the Central and Southern Cascades

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walsh, L. K.; Wallace, P. J.; Cashman, K. V.

2012-12-01

An abundance of hazardous effects including ash fall out, basaltic lava flows and poisonous volcanic gas have been documented at active volcanic centers (e.g. Auckland Volcanic Field, New Zealand; Bebbington and Cronin 2011) and have been inferred using tools such as geologic mapping and geochemical analyses for prehistoric eruptions (e.g. Cerro Negro, Nicaragua; Hill et al. 1995; McKnight and Williams 1997). The Cascades volcanic history is also dominated by prehistoric eruptions; however the associated hazards have yet to be studied in-depth. Short recurrence rates of cinder cone volcanism (1x10-5 to 5x10-4 events/yr; Smid et al. 2009) likely intensify the probability of human experience with cinder cone hazards. Hence, it is important to understand the effects that cinder cone volcanism can have on communities near the Cascades. In this study, we estimate volatile fluxes of prehistoric Cascade cinder cone eruptions by analyzing olivine-hosted melt inclusions and rapidly quenched tephra matrix glass. The melt inclusions provide pre-eruptive volatile concentrations whereas tephra groundmass glass provides post-eruptive volatile concentrations. By comparing initial and final concentrations we can determine the amounts of sulfur, chlorine and fluorine released into the atmosphere. We have analyzed S, Cl and F concentrations in melt inclusions from cinder cones in the Central Oregon Cascades (Collier Cone, Yapoah Crater, Four-in-One Fissure, Garrison Butte) and in Northern California near Mt. Lassen (Cinder Cone, Basalt of Old Railroad Grade, Basalt of Highway 44). Analyses of volatiles in melt inclusions and matrix glasses were done using the Cameca SX100 electron microprobe at the University of Oregon. Melt inclusions and matrix glass were run under 15kV, 50nA, and 10μm-beam conditions. For F analyses, a use of an LTAP crystal and relatively long counting times (160 sec. on peak) resulted in good analytical precision. Preliminary results for melt inclusions from the Central Oregon Cascades are (averages from each cone): 700-1190 ppm S; 480-1115 ppm Cl; 120-280 ppm F; and for Northern California: 620-1100 ppm S; 305-445 ppm Cl; 130-240 ppm F. Maximum values for the two regions are 1610 ppm S, 1490 ppm Cl, and 440 ppm F. The majority of studies on health hazards from inhalation or ingestion of volcanic aerosols are centered on livestock; therefore not much is known of the effects on humans. This emphasizes the importance of such a study in a volcanically active region. Levels of volcanic aerosols are considered "hazardous" and to "pose a hazardous risk" to surrounding agricultural and residential communities if concentrations are elevated above World Health Organization (WHO) or Occupational Safety and Health Administration maximum exposure limits (OSHA) (SO2: 7 ppm for a 24-hr period; HCl: 5 ppm for a 24-hr period; HF: 3 ppm for a 10-hr period). By assessing volatile concentrations from past eruptions we can better constrain the probable volatile hazards future cinder cone eruptions pose to surrounding agricultural and residential communities near the Cascades.

Strong hydrothermal eruption 600 BP inside Golovnin caldera, Kunashir Island, Kurile arc

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Belousov, Alexander; Belousova, Marina; Kozlov, Dmitry

2017-04-01

Hydrothermal explosions are difficult to predict and thus they pose serious hazard to visitors of hydrothermal areas. Here we present results of mapping of airfall deposit of strong prehistoric hydrothermal eruption that was the latest eruptive event in the limits of Golovnin caldera in the southern part of Kunashir Island, Kurile arc. This caldera was formed 30 Ka BP (Razhigaeva et al. 1998) that was followed by extrusion of two dacitic lava domes in the central part of the caldera. The studied hydrothermal eruption occurred at active hydrothermal area located at the southern foot of the Vostochny (Eastern) lava dome. This eruption formed a 350-m wide and 40 m deep crater surrounded by low-profile ring of the ejected material. Part of the crater is occupied by 17-m-deep Kipiashee Lake having intensive hydrothermal discharge on its bottom. The ejected material is represented by yellow-white and yellow-brown poorly sorted sandy gravels and sands with admixture of clay. This clastic material was formed by fragmentation of hydrothermally altered pumice tuffs (former sediments of the intracaldera lake). The airfall deposit has nearly circular distribution around the crater. The deposit thickness decreases from 5-7 m at the crater rim to 5 cm on the distances 2-3 km; thickness half-distance (bt) is estimated as 4.1. Volume of the deposit calculated by the method of Fierstein and Nathenson (1992) is 0.007 cub.km. Radiocarbon dating of soil buried directly under the deposit provided calibrated age 1300-1420 AD. This eruption can be considered as a model for future hydrothermal explosions inside the Golovnin caldera. This study was supported by grant of Russian Science Foundation #15-17-20011.

Origin and Structures of Solar Eruptions I: Magnetic Flux Rope

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, Xin; Guo, Yang; Ding, MingDe

2017-08-01

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and solar flares are the large-scale and most energetic eruptive phenomena in our solar system and able to release a large quantity of plasma and magnetic flux from the solar atmosphere into the solar wind. When these high-speed magnetized plasmas along with the energetic particles arrive at the Earth, they may interact with the magnetosphere and ionosphere, and seriously affect the safety of human high-tech activities in outer space. The travel time of a CME to 1 AU is about 1-3 days, while energetic particles from the eruptions arrive even earlier. An efficient forecast of these phenomena therefore requires a clear detection of CMEs/flares at the stage as early as possible. To estimate the possibility of an eruption leading to a CME/flare, we need to elucidate some fundamental but elusive processes including in particular the origin and structures of CMEs/flares. Understanding these processes can not only improve the prediction of the occurrence of CMEs/flares and their effects on geospace and the heliosphere but also help understand the mass ejections and flares on other solar-type stars. The main purpose of this review is to address the origin and early structures of CMEs/flares, from multi-wavelength observational perspective. First of all, we start with the ongoing debate of whether the pre-eruptive configuration, i.e., a helical magnetic flux rope (MFR), of CMEs/flares exists before the eruption and then emphatically introduce observational manifestations of the MFR. Secondly, we elaborate on the possible formation mechanisms of the MFR through distinct ways. Thirdly, we discuss the initiation of the MFR and associated dynamics during its evolution toward the CME/flare. Finally, we come to some conclusions and put forward some prospects in the future.

Dome growth and destruction during the 1989-1990 eruption of redoubt volcano

USGS Publications Warehouse

Miller, T.P.

1994-01-01

Much of the six-month-long 1989-1990 eruption of Redoubt Volcano consisted of a dome-growth and -destructive phase in which 14 short-lived viscous silicic andesite domes were emplaced and 13 subsequently destroyed. The life span of an individual dome ranged from 3 to 21 days and volumes are estimated at 1 ?? 106 to 30 ?? 106 m3. Magma supply rates to the vent area averaged about 5 ?? 105 m3 / day for most of the dome-building phase and ranged from a high of 2.2 ?? 106 m3 per day initially to a low of 1.8 ?? 105 m3 per day at the waning stages of the eruption. The total volume of all domes is estimated to be about 90 ?? 106 m3 and may represent as much as 60-70% of the volume for the entire eruption. The site of 1989-1990 dome emplacement, like that in 1966, was on the margin of a north-facing amphitheatre-like summit crater. The domes were confined on the east and west by steep cliffs of pre-eruption cone-building volcanic rocks and thus were constrained to grow vertically. Rapid upward growth in a precarious site caused each dome to spread preferentially to the north, resulting in eventual gravitational collapse. As long as the present conduit remains active at Redoubt Volcano, any dome formed in a new eruption will be confined to a narrow steeply-sloping gorge, leading to rapid vertical growth and a tendency to collapse gravitationally. Repetitive cycles of dome formation and failure similar to those seen in 1989-1990 are probably the norm and must be considered in future hazard analyses of Redoubt Volcano. ?? 1994.

Sustained eruptions on Enceladus explained by turbulent dissipation in tiger stripes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kite, Edwin S.; Rubin, Allan M.

2016-04-01

Spacecraft observations suggest that the plumes of Saturn’s moon Enceladus draw water from a subsurface ocean, but the sustainability of conduits linking ocean and surface is not understood. Observations show eruptions from “tiger stripe” fissures that are sustained (although tidally modulated) throughout each orbit, and since the 2005 discovery of the plumes. Peak plume flux lags peak tidal extension by ˜1 rad, suggestive of resonance. Here, we show that a model of the tiger stripes as tidally flexed slots that puncture the ice shell can simultaneously explain the persistence of the eruptions through the tidal cycle, the phase lag, and the total power output of the tiger stripe terrain, while suggesting that eruptions are maintained over geological timescales. The delay associated with flushing and refilling of O(1)-m-wide slots with ocean water causes erupted flux to lag tidal forcing and helps to buttress slots against closure, while tidally pumped in-slot flow leads to heating and mechanical disruption that staves off slot freezeout. Much narrower and much wider slots cannot be sustained. In the presence of long-lived slots, the 106-y average power output of the tiger stripes is buffered by a feedback between ice melt-back and subsidence to O(1010) W, which is similar to observed power output, suggesting long-term stability. Turbulent dissipation makes testable predictions for the final flybys of Enceladus by Cassini. Our model shows how open connections to an ocean can be reconciled with, and sustain, long-lived eruptions. Turbulent dissipation in long-lived slots helps maintain the ocean against freezing, maintains access by future Enceladus missions to ocean materials, and is plausibly the major energy source for tiger stripe activity.

History of Red Crater volcano, Tongariro Volcanic Centre (New Zealand): Abrupt shift in magmatism following recharge and contrasting evolution between neighboring volcanoes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shane, Phil; Maas, Roland; Lindsay, Jan

2017-06-01

Red Crater volcano is one of several contemporaneously active vents on the Tongariro Volcanic Centre. Its history provides an opportunity to investigate the contrasting magmatic evolutionary paths of closely-spaced volcanoes. Rocks erupted at Red Crater over the last 3.4 ka display typical subduction-related trace element and isotopic signatures. Those erupted pre-1.8 ka are medium-K andesites (SiO2 59-62 wt%). They represent the most voluminous magmas and were emplaced in 5 lava flow events. An abrupt shift to the eruption of basaltic andesite (SiO2 53-54 wt%) with less radiogenic Sr-Nd-Pb isotope ratios, occurred post-1.8 ka. This period comprised 6 smaller volume, lava flow episodes and the contemporaneous development of a scoria cone. Plagioclase phenocrysts in post-1.8 ka lava flows have resorbed cores with diverse textural and compositional growth patterns, as would be expected from the disruption of a crystal mush. They are similar to phenocrysts of the pre-1.8 ka lava flows. The post-1.8 ka plagioclase is distinguished from those in the older lavas by overgrowths with elevated An ( 70-90), FeO and MgO contents, that mantle the resorbed cores ( An50-70). These rims are compositionally similar to groundmass plagioclase. This demonstrates that new mafic magma was intruded into the system, mixing with and entraining relic crystals from the older andesite system. Iron and Mg zoning patterns in the crystals are not consistent with significant re-equilibration via diffusion. Hence, the generation of eruptible magma during the last 1.8 ka required repeated mafic intrusion events. The emptying of the older andesitic magma reservoir early in the volcano's history removed buoyancy barriers to the direct eruption of more mafic magmas. This pattern of magmatism is not recorded at the contemporaneously active Ngauruhoe volcano, just 3 km to the SSW. Ngauruhoe rocks are compositionally distinct and are more heterogeneous in isotopic composition. Although mafic recharge is also evident, larger volumes of magma with more radiogenic compositions were erupted and the history of activity extends farther back in time than that of Red Crater. This is consistent with the development of a larger silicic reservoir beneath Ngauruhoe that could have acted as a buoyancy filter preventing direct eruption of mafic magma. The eruptive products of the two volcanoes reveal the diverging development of adjacent magmatic reservoirs that lack lateral connectivity at a scale in the order of 102-103 m. There is limited literature on the comparative magmatic evolution of closely-spaced conduit/storage systems at arc volcanoes, reflecting the limitations of geochronological data at centennial and millennial timescales. However, such investigations provide insight into andesite assembly and the contrasting volcanism that could be expected in future activity.

Stress barriers controlling lateral migration of magma revealed by seismic tomography.

PubMed

Martí, J; Villaseñor, A; Geyer, A; López, C; Tryggvason, A

2017-01-13

Understanding how monogenetic volcanic systems work requires full comprehension of the local and regional stresses that govern magma migration inside them and why/how they seem to change from one eruption to another. During the 2011-2012 El Hierro eruption (Canary Islands) the characteristics of unrest, including a continuous change in the location of seismicity, made the location of the future vent unpredictable, so short term hazard assessment was highly imprecise. A 3D P-wave velocity model is obtained using arrival times of the earthquakes occurred during that pre-eruptive unrest and several latter post-eruptive seismic crises not related to further eruptions. This model reveals the rheological and structural complexity of the interior of El Hierro volcanic island. It shows a number of stress barriers corresponding to regional tectonic structures and blocked pathways from previous eruptions, which controlled ascent and lateral migration of magma and, together with the existence of N-S regional compression, reduced its options to find a suitable path to reach the surface and erupt.

Stress barriers controlling lateral migration of magma revealed by seismic tomography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martí, J.; Villaseñor, A.; Geyer, A.; López, C.; Tryggvason, A.

2017-01-01

Understanding how monogenetic volcanic systems work requires full comprehension of the local and regional stresses that govern magma migration inside them and why/how they seem to change from one eruption to another. During the 2011-2012 El Hierro eruption (Canary Islands) the characteristics of unrest, including a continuous change in the location of seismicity, made the location of the future vent unpredictable, so short term hazard assessment was highly imprecise. A 3D P-wave velocity model is obtained using arrival times of the earthquakes occurred during that pre-eruptive unrest and several latter post-eruptive seismic crises not related to further eruptions. This model reveals the rheological and structural complexity of the interior of El Hierro volcanic island. It shows a number of stress barriers corresponding to regional tectonic structures and blocked pathways from previous eruptions, which controlled ascent and lateral migration of magma and, together with the existence of N-S regional compression, reduced its options to find a suitable path to reach the surface and erupt.

Observations of volcanic plumes using small balloon soundings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Voemel, H.

2015-12-01

Eruptions of volcanoes are very difficult to predict and for practical purposes may occur at any time. Any observing system intending to observe volcanic eruptions has to be ready at any time. Due to transport time scales, emissions of large volcanic eruptions, in particular injections into the stratosphere, may be detected at locations far from the volcano within days to weeks after the eruption. These emissions may be observed using small balloon soundings at dedicated sites. Here we present observations of particles of the Icelandic Grimsvotn eruption at the Meteorological Observatory Lindenberg, Germany in the months following the eruption and observations of opportunity of other volcanic particle events. We also present observations of the emissions of SO2 from the Turrialba volcano at San Jose, Costa Rica. We argue that dedicated sites for routine observations of the clean and perturbed atmosphere using small sounding balloons are an important element in the detection and quantification of emissions from future volcanic eruptions.

Homologous prominence non-radial eruptions: A case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duchlev, P.; Koleva, K.; Madjarska, M. S.; Dechev, M.

2016-10-01

The present study provides important details on homologous eruptions of a solar prominence that occurred in active region NOAA 10904 on 2006 August 22. We report on the pre-eruptive phase of the homologous feature as well as the kinematics and the morphology of a forth from a series of prominence eruptions that is critical in defining the nature of the previous consecutive eruptions. The evolution of the overlying coronal field during homologous eruptions is discussed and a new observational criterion for homologous eruptions is provided. We find a distinctive sequence of three activation periods each of them containing pre-eruptive precursors such as a brightening and enlarging of the prominence body followed by small surge-like ejections from its southern end observed in the radio 17 GHz. We analyse a fourth eruption that clearly indicates a full reformation of the prominence after the third eruption. The fourth eruption although occurring 11 h later has an identical morphology, the same angle of propagation with respect to the radial direction, as well as similar kinematic evolution as the previous three eruptions. We find an important feature of the homologous eruptive prominence sequence that is the maximum height increase of each consecutive eruption. The present analysis establishes that all four eruptions observed in Hα are of confined type with the third eruption undergoing a thermal disappearance during its eruptive phase. We suggest that the observation of the same direction of the magnetic flux rope (MFR) ejections can be consider as an additional observational criterion for MFR homology. This observational indication for homologous eruptions is important, especially in the case of events of typical or poorly distinguishable morphology of eruptive solar phenomena.

Responses to, and the short and long-term impacts of, the 1957/1958 Capelinhos volcanic eruption and associated earthquake activity on Faial, Azores

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coutinho, Rui; Chester, David K.; Wallenstein, Nicolau; Duncan, Angus M.

2010-10-01

The 1957/58 Capelinhos eruption on Faial Island in the Azores is well known for being an excellent example of Surtseyan hydromagmatic volcanic activity. Less well known are the responses of the Portuguese authorities to the eruption and subsequent earthquake in May 1958, and the ways in which well-thought-out and generally effective recovery programmes were put in place. At the time Portugal was ruled by a dictatorship, the Estado Novo (New State). Only superficially similar to other fascist governments in Southern Europe, the Estado Novo collected huge amounts of data on the responses of the authorities to the disaster and their programmes of recovery, but never encouraged academic evaluation of policy, although it ensured that the scientific aspects of the eruption and earthquake were meticulously recorded and published. In this paper we remedy this situation by discussing the details of the immediate response to the emergency and the ways in which the island recovered in its aftermath. The study is based not only on archival sources and demographic and economic data, but also on detailed interviews with survivors some of whom were also decision makers. We argue that response, recovery and rehabilitation were generally highly successful and assess the lessons of the 1957/58 emergency which are relevant to future geophysical disasters in Faial and the wider Azores. Since the 1974 revolution Portugal has been a democratic state. We conclude that both the legislation and the civil defence infrastructure, necessary to achieve a similarly strong and successful response, are in place today.

Earth Observations taken by the Expedition 27 Crew

NASA Image and Video Library

2011-05-02

ISS027-E-020395 (2 May 2011) --- Avachinsky Volcano, Kamchatka Peninsula, Russia is featured in this image photographed by an Expedition 27 crew member on the International Space Station. The Kamchatka Peninsula, located along the Pacific ?ring of fire?, includes more than 100 identified volcanoes. While most of these volcanoes are not actively erupting, many are considered to be dangerous due to their past eruptive history and proximity to population centers and air travel corridors. This detailed photograph highlights the summit crater and snow-covered upper slopes of the Avachinsky stratovolcano exposed above a surrounding cloud deck. The 2,741-meter-high Avachinsky volcano has an extensive historical and geological record of eruptions with the latest activity observed in 2008. The large city of Petropavlovsk, Kamchatka is located approximately 25 kilometers to the southwest and, according to scientists, is built over approximately 30,000 ? 40,000 year old debris avalanche deposits that originated from Avachinsky ? suggesting that the city may be at risk from a similar hazard in the future. To the southeast (right), the large breached crater of Kozelsky Volcano is also visible above the clouds. Kozelsky is a parasitic cone, formed by the eruption of material from vents along the flank of Avachinsky volcano. The topography of the volcanoes is accentuated by shadows produced by the relatively low sun angle, and by the oblique viewing angle. Oblique images are taken looking outwards at an angle from the International Space Station, rather than the ?straight down? (or nadir) view typical of most orbital Earth-observing sensor systems.

FOGO-2014: Monitoring the Fogo 2014 Eruption, Cape Verde

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernandes, Rui; Faria, Bruno

2015-04-01

Fogo volcano, located in the Cape Verde Archipelago offshore Western Africa, is a complete stratovolcano system that was created by the Cape Verde hotspot, forming the island of Fogo. The top (Pico do Fogo) reaches ~2830m above sea level, and raises ~1100m above Chã das Caldeiras, an almost flat circular area with approximately 10 kilometres in the north-south direction and 7 kilometres in the east-west direction. Chã das Caldeiras, surrounded towards the West by the ~1000m high Bordeira rampart, has been inhabited since the early 20th Century, because it is one of the most productive agricultural areas in this semi-arid country. Fogo volcano erupted on November 23, 2014 (~10:00UTC) on a subsidiary vent of the main cone, after 19 years of inactivity. C4G (Collaboratory for Geosciences), a distributed research infrastructure created in 2014 in the framework of the Portuguese Roadmap for Strategic Research Infrastructures, immediately offered support to the Cape Verdean authorities, with the goal of complementing the permanent geophysical monitoring network operated in Fogo island by INMG, the Cape Verdean Meteorological and Geophysical Institute. This permanent network is composed of seven seismographic stations and three tiltmeter stations, and the data is transmitted in real time to the INMG geophysical laboratory in São Vicente Island, where it is analysed on a routine basis. Pre-eruptive activity started to be detected by the permanent monitoring network on October 2014, with earthquakes occurring at depths larger than 15 km. These events led to a first volcanic warning to the Cape Verdean Civil Protection Agency. On November 22 several volcano-tectonic earthquakes were recorded at shallow depths, indicating shallow fracturing. On the basis of this activity, INMG issued a formal alert of an impending eruption to the Civil Protection Agency, ~24 hours before the onset of the eruption. Volcanic tremor and clear tiltmeter signals were recorded about one hour before the eruption began. The Copernicus Emergency Management Service was also activated and several maps of lava flows advance and general site information were produced, based on Earth Observation, to facilitate crisis management. The eruption caused no casualties or personal injuries. The lava expelled by the current eruption (still active at the time of submission, January 6, 2015, but declining) destroyed the two main villages in the caldera (~1000 inhabitants), previously evacuated, and covered vast areas of agricultural land, causing very large economic losses and an uncertain future of the local populations. The C4G team installed a network of seven cGNSS receivers and nine seismometers, distributed in Fogo Island. The operation of the equipment started on 28th November 2014, and will continue until the end of January 2015. The mission also included a new detailed gravimetric survey of the island, the acquisition of geological samples, and the analysis of the air quality during the eruption. We present here a detailed description of the monitoring efforts carried out during the eruption as well as initial results of the analysis of the data collected. This monitoring effort carried out at the request and in collaboration with INMG, was made possible by an emergency financial support provided by Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia, Portugal.

MHD Modeling of the Sympathetic Eruptions Observed on August 1, 2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mikic, Z.; Torok, T.; Titov, V. S.; Downs, C.; Linker, J.; Lionello, R.; Riley, P.

2013-12-01

The multiple solar eruptions observed by SDO on August 1, 2010 present a special challenge to theoretical models of CME initiation. SDO captured in detail a remarkable chain of sympathetic eruptions that involved the entire visible hemisphere of the Sun (Schrijver et al. 2011). It consisted of several flares and six filament eruptions/CMEs, and triggered a geomagnetic storm on August 3 (de Toma et al. 2010). This series of eruptions was also observed by the two STEREO spacecraft. This collection of observations presents a unique opportunity to understand sympathetic eruptions theoretically. We have previously simulated the three principal filament eruptions (and their associated CMEs) that characterized this event. We have had some success in reproducing their observed synchronicity. We will present further simulations that attempt to get a better match with observations. Such simulations will help us to understand the possible mechanisms by which the various filament eruptions/CMEs may be linked. The modeling of such events is very useful for incorporation into future space weather prediction models. Research supported by NASA's Heliophysics Theory and Living With a Star Programs, and NSF/FESD.

Large explosive basaltic eruptions at Katla volcano, Iceland: Fragmentation, grain size and eruption dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmith, Johanne; Höskuldsson, Ármann; Holm, Paul Martin; Larsen, Guðrún

2018-04-01

Katla volcano in Iceland produces hazardous large explosive basaltic eruptions on a regular basis, but very little quantitative data for future hazard assessments exist. Here details on fragmentation mechanism and eruption dynamics are derived from a study of deposit stratigraphy with detailed granulometry and grain morphology analysis, granulometric modeling, componentry and the new quantitative regularity index model of fragmentation mechanism. We show that magma/water interaction is important in the ash generation process, but to a variable extent. By investigating the large explosive basaltic eruptions from 1755 and 1625, we document that eruptions of similar size and magma geochemistry can have very different fragmentation dynamics. Our models show that fragmentation in the 1755 eruption was a combination of magmatic degassing and magma/water-interaction with the most magma/water-interaction at the beginning of the eruption. The fragmentation of the 1625 eruption was initially also a combination of both magmatic and phreatomagmatic processes, but magma/water-interaction diminished progressively during the later stages of the eruption. However, intense magma/water interaction was reintroduced during the final stages of the eruption dominating the fine fragmentation at the end. This detailed study of fragmentation changes documents that subglacial eruptions have highly variable interaction with the melt water showing that the amount and access to melt water changes significantly during eruptions. While it is often difficult to reconstruct the progression of eruptions that have no quantitative observational record, this study shows that integrating field observations and granulometry with the new regularity index can form a coherent model of eruption evolution.

Mount St. Helens: A 30-year legacy of volcanism

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vallance, James W.; Gardner, Cynthia A.; Scott, William E.; Iverson, Richard M.; Pierson, Thomas C.

2010-01-01

The spectacular eruption of Mount St. Helens on 18 May 1980 electrified scientists and the public. Photodocumentation of the colossal landslide, directed blast, and ensuing eruption column—which reached as high as 25 kilometers in altitude and lasted for nearly 9 hours—made news worldwide. Reconnaissance of the devastation spurred efforts to understand the power and awe of those moments (Figure 1). The eruption remains a seminal historical event—studying it and its aftermath revolutionized the way scientists approach the field of volcanology. Not only was the eruption spectacular, but also it occurred in daytime, at an accessible volcano, in a country with the resources to transform disaster into scientific opportunity, amid a transformation in digital technology. Lives lost and the impact of the eruption on people and infrastructure downstream and downwind made it imperative for scientists to investigate events and work with communities to lessen losses from future eruptions.

Risk management of El Chichón and Tacaná Volcanoes: Lessons learned from past volcanic crises: Chapter 8

USGS Publications Warehouse

De la Cruz-Reyna, Servando; Tilling, Robert I.

2015-01-01

Before 1985, Mexico lacked civil-protection agencies with a mission to prevent and respond to natural and human-caused disasters; thus, the government was unprepared for the sudden eruption of El Chichón Volcano in March–April 1982, which produced the deadliest volcanic disaster in the country’s recorded history (~2,000 fatalities). With the sobering lessons of El Chichón still fresh, scientists and governmental officials had a higher awareness of possible disastrous outcome when Tacaná Volcano began to exhibit unrest in late 1985. Seismic and geochemical studies were quickly initiated to monitor activity. At the same time, scientists worked actively with officials of the Federal and local agencies to develop the “Plan Operativo” (Operational Plan)—expressly designed to effectively communicate hazards information and reduce confusion and panic among the affected population. Even though the volcano-monitoring data obtained during the Tacaná crisis were limited, when used in conjunction with protocols of the Operational Plan, they proved useful in mitigating risk and easing public anxiety. While comprehensive monitoring is not yet available, both El Chichón and Tacaná volcanoes are currently monitored—seismically and geochemically—within the scientific and economic resources available. Numerous post-eruption studies have generated new insights into the volcanic systems that have been factored into subsequent volcano monitoring and hazards assessments. The State of Chiapas is now much better positioned to deal with any future unrest or eruptive activity at El Chichón or Tacaná, both of which at the moment are quiescent as of 2014. Perhaps more importantly, the protocols first tested in 1986 at Tacaná have served as the basis for the development of risk-management practices for hazards from other active and potentially active volcanoes in Mexico. These practices have been most notably employed since 1994 at Volcán Popocatépetl since a major eruption under unfavorable prevailing winds may constitute a substantial threat to densely populated metropolitan Mexico City. While the 1982 El Chichón disaster was a national tragedy, it greatly accelerated volcanic emergency preparedness and multidisciplinary scientific studies of eruptive processes and products, not only at El Chichón but also at other explosive volcanoes in Mexico and elsewhere in the world.

Intrusion triggering of the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull explosive eruption.

PubMed

Sigmundsson, Freysteinn; Hreinsdóttir, Sigrún; Hooper, Andrew; Arnadóttir, Thóra; Pedersen, Rikke; Roberts, Matthew J; Oskarsson, Níels; Auriac, Amandine; Decriem, Judicael; Einarsson, Páll; Geirsson, Halldór; Hensch, Martin; Ofeigsson, Benedikt G; Sturkell, Erik; Sveinbjörnsson, Hjörleifur; Feigl, Kurt L

2010-11-18

Gradual inflation of magma chambers often precedes eruptions at highly active volcanoes. During such eruptions, rapid deflation occurs as magma flows out and pressure is reduced. Less is known about the deformation style at moderately active volcanoes, such as Eyjafjallajökull, Iceland, where an explosive summit eruption of trachyandesite beginning on 14 April 2010 caused exceptional disruption to air traffic, closing airspace over much of Europe for days. This eruption was preceded by an effusive flank eruption of basalt from 20 March to 12 April 2010. The 2010 eruptions are the culmination of 18 years of intermittent volcanic unrest. Here we show that deformation associated with the eruptions was unusual because it did not relate to pressure changes within a single magma chamber. Deformation was rapid before the first eruption (>5 mm per day after 4 March), but negligible during it. Lack of distinct co-eruptive deflation indicates that the net volume of magma drained from shallow depth during this eruption was small; rather, magma flowed from considerable depth. Before the eruption, a ∼0.05 km(3) magmatic intrusion grew over a period of three months, in a temporally and spatially complex manner, as revealed by GPS (Global Positioning System) geodetic measurements and interferometric analysis of satellite radar images. The second eruption occurred within the ice-capped caldera of the volcano, with explosivity amplified by magma-ice interaction. Gradual contraction of a source, distinct from the pre-eruptive inflation sources, is evident from geodetic data. Eyjafjallajökull's behaviour can be attributed to its off-rift setting with a 'cold' subsurface structure and limited magma at shallow depth, as may be typical for moderately active volcanoes. Clear signs of volcanic unrest signals over years to weeks may indicate reawakening of such volcanoes, whereas immediate short-term eruption precursors may be subtle and difficult to detect.

The link between multistep magma ascent and eruption intensity: examples from the recent activity of Piton de la Fournaise (La Réunion Island).

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Di Muro, Andrea

2014-05-01

Caldera collapses represent catastrophic events, which induce drastic modification in a volcano plumbing system and can result in major and fast evolution of the system dynamics. At Piton de la Fournaise (PdF) volcano, the 2007 eruptive sequence extruded the largest lava volume (240 Mm3) since at least 3 centuries, provoking the collapse of a small (1 km wide; 340 m deep) summit caldera. In about 35 days, the 2007 major eruption generated i) the greatest lava output rate, ii) the strongest lava fountaining activity (> 200 m high), iii) the largest SO2 volume (> 230 kt) ever documented at PdF. This event ended a 9 year-long period (1998-2007) of continuous edifice inflation and sustained eruptive activity (3 eruptions per year on average). Unexpectedly and in spite of the large volume of magma erupted in 2007, volcano unrest and eruptive activity resumed quickly in 2008, soon after caldera collapse, and produced several closely spaced intracaldera eruptions and shallow intrusions. The post-2007 activity is associated with a trend of continuous volcano deflation and consists in small-volume (<3 Mm3) weak (< 20 m high fountains; strombolian activity) summit/proximal eruptions of moderate/low MgO magmas and frequent shallow magma intrusions. Non-eruptive tremor and increase in SO2 emissions were interpreted as evidences of magma intrusions at shallow depth (< 2.0 km) preceding the eruptions. The 2007-2011 phase of activity represents an ideal case-study to analyze the influence of magma ascent kinetics on the evolution of volcano dynamics at a persistently active basaltic volcano. In order to track magma storage and ascent, we compare geochemical data on fast quenched glasses (melt inclusions, Pele's hairs, coarse ash fragments produced by lava-sea water interaction, glassy crust of lavas, high-temperature lavas quenched in water, matrix glasses) with the geophysical record of volcano unrest. Petro-chemical data suggest that the shallow PdF plumbing system is formed by a network of small sized magma pockets (sills). We explicitly link its formation and emptying with periodic magma recharges from deeper levels and repeated caldera collapses, which frequently affect the central cone of PdF. In spite of the large range in fountain intensity, dissolved volatiles contents are low and almost constant. Multistep ascent of magma inputs is identified as the key mechanism determining the evolution towards open system degassing and in fine controlling eruptive behavior.

Mechanisms of Tooth Eruption and Orthodontic Tooth Movement

PubMed Central

Wise, G.E.; King, G.J.

2008-01-01

Teeth move through alveolar bone, whether through the normal process of tooth eruption or by strains generated by orthodontic appliances. Both eruption and orthodontics accomplish this feat through similar fundamental biological processes, osteoclastogenesis and osteogenesis, but there are differences that make their mechanisms unique. A better appreciation of the molecular and cellular events that regulate osteoclastogenesis and osteogenesis in eruption and orthodontics is not only central to our understanding of how these processes occur, but also is needed for ultimate development of the means to control them. Possible future studies in these areas are also discussed, with particular emphasis on translation of fundamental knowledge to improve dental treatments. PMID:18434571

Is Kīlauea's East Rift Zone eruption running out of gas?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sutton, A. J.; Elias, T.; Orr, T. R.; Patrick, M. R.; Poland, M. P.; Thornber, C. R.

2015-12-01

Gases exsolving from magma are a key force that drives eruptive activity, and emissions from Kīlauea's East Rift Zone (ERZ) dominated the volcano's gas release from the beginning of the long-running and voluminous Pu'u 'Ō'ō eruption in 1983, through February 2008. In the months prior to the March 2008 onset of eruptive activity within Halema'uma'u Crater, however, SO2 degassing at the summit climbed substantially, and summit gas release has remained elevated since. These unprecedented emissions associated with the new summit eruption effectively began robbing gas from magma destined for Kīlauea's ERZ. As a result, ERZ SO2discharge, which had averaged 1,700 +-380 t/d for the previous 15 years, declined sharply and steadily beginning in September, 2008, and reached a new steady low of 380 +- 100 t/d by early 2011. This level persisted through mid-2015. In the years since the late 2008 downturn in ERZ SO2 emissions, there has been an overall slowdown in ERZ eruptive activity. Elevated emissions and effusive activity occurred briefly during the 2011 Kamoamoa fissure eruption and two other outbreaks at Pu'u 'Ō'ō , but otherwise ERZ eruptive activity had waned by 2010, when effusion rates were measured at about half of the long-term rate. Also, the sulfur preserved in ERZ olivine melt-inclusions, which provides a record of pre-eruptive SO2degassing, has steadily declined along with equilibration temperatures of host olivine phenocrysts, since 2008. We suggest that the drop in gas content of magma reaching the ERZ, owing to summit pre-eruptive degassing, has contributed significantly to the downturn in ERZ activity. While SO2 emissions from the ERZ have dropped to sustained levels lower than anything seen in the past 20 years, summit emissions have remained some of the highest recorded since regular measurements began at Kīlauea in 1979. Overall, average total SO2 discharge from Kīlauea in 2014, summit and ERZ, is still about 50% higher than for the 15 years prior to 2008. The effects of summit pre-eruptive degassing observed at Kilauea may have application at other summit-rift shield volcanoes.

Thermal signature, eruption style, and eruption evolution at Pele and Pillan on Io

USGS Publications Warehouse

Davies, A.G.; Keszthelyi, L.P.; Williams, D.A.; Phillips, C.B.; McEwen, A.S.; Lopes, R.M.C.; Smythe, W.D.; Kamp, L.W.; Soderblom, L.A.; Carlson, R.W.

2001-01-01

The Galileo spacecraft has been periodically monitoring volcanic activity on Io since June 1996, making it possible to chart the evolution of individual eruptions. We present results of coanalysis of Near-Infrared Mapping Spectrometer (NIMS) and solid-state imaging (SSI) data of eruptions at Pele and Pillan, especially from a particularly illuminating data set consisting of mutually constraining, near-simultaneous NIMS and SSI observations obtained during orbit C9 in June 1997. The observed thermal signature from each hot spot, and the way in which the thermal signature changes with time, tightly constrains the possible styles of eruption. Pele and Pillan have very different eruption styles. From September 1996 through May 1999, Pele demonstrates an almost constant total thermal output, with thermal emission spectra indicative of a long-lived, active lava lake. The NIMS Pillan data exhibit the thermal signature of a "Pillanian" eruption style, a large, vigorous eruption with associated open channel, or sheet flows, producing an extensive flow field by orbit C10 in September 1997. The high mass eruption rate, high liquidus temperature (at least 1870 K) eruption at Pillan is the best candidate so far for an active ultramafic (magnesium-rich, "komatiitic") flow on Io, a style of eruption never before witnessed. The thermal output per unit area from Pillan is, however, consistent with the emplacement of large, open-channel flows. Magma temperature at Pele is ~1600 K. If the magma temperature is 1600 K, it suggests a komatiitic-basalt composition. The power output from Pele is indicative of a magma volumetric eruption rate of ~250 to 340 m3 s-1. Although the Pele lava lake is considerably larger than its terrestrial counterparts, the power and mass fluxes per unit area are similar to active terrestrial lava lakes. Copyright 2001 by the American Geophysical Union.

Volcanic Eruptions of the EPR and Ridge Axis Segmentation: An Interdisciplinary View

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

White, S.; Soule, S. A.; Tolstoy, M.; Waldhauser, F.; Rubin, K.

2008-12-01

The eruption of the EPR in 2005-06 provides an ideal window into the relationship between fine-scale segmentation of the ridge axis and individual eruptive episodes. Lava flow mapping of the eruption by visual and acoustic images, precise dates on multiple eruptive units, stress information from seismicity, long-term records of hydrothermal activity, and well known segment boundaries illustrate the relationships between eruptions and segmentation of mid-ocean ridges. Lava flows emerged from several sections of the axial summit trough (AST) during the eruption, presumably from en echelon fissures between 9 45'N and 9 57'N. Each en echelon fissure is a 4th order segment, and the overall area matches the 3rd Order segment between ~9 45'N and ~9 58'N. Within the eruption, the primary eruptive fissure jumped east by 600 m at 9 53'N, and ran along an inward facing fault scarp, although limited lava effusion also extended northward along the axial fissure. A zone of high seismicity connects the normal fault bounding the eastern fissure eruption with the main locus of eruption on the ridge axis to the south, suggesting that the offset eruption may have occurred in response to stress buildup on this fault. Radiometric ages indicate that the entire along-axis extent of the eruptive fissures activated initially, but that volcanic activity focused to a single fourth-order segment within 1-3 months. Previously indentified breaks in the AST and its overall outline were largely unchanged by the eruption. These observations support the hypothesis that fourth-order segments are offsets controlled by the mechanics of dike emplacement, whereas third-order segments represent discrete volcanic systems. Dike segmentation may be controlled by variations in underlying ridge structure or the magma reservoir. Hydrothermal systems disrupted as far south as 9 37'N may be responding to cracking due to stress interaction or share a common deeper magmatic source. Comparisons between the 1991 EPR eruption at the same site, and several mapped southern EPR eruptions, the 10 45'N EPR eruption in ca. 2003 all show similar relationships to segmentation

Eruptions that Drive Coronal Jets in a Solar Active Region

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sterling, Alphonse C.; Moore, Ronald L.; Falconer, David A.; Panesar, Navdeep K.; Akiyama, Sachiko; Yashiro, Seiji; Gopalswamy, Nat

2016-01-01

Solar coronal jets are common in both coronal holes and in active regions (e.g., Shibata et al. 1992, Shimojo et al. 1996, Cirtain et al. 2007. Savcheva et al. 2007). Recently, Sterling et al. (2015), using data from Hinode/XRT and SDO/AIA, found that coronal jets originating in polar coronal holes result from the eruption of small-scale filaments (minifilaments). The jet bright point (JBP) seen in X-rays and hotter EUV channels off to one side of the base of the jet's spire develops at the location where the minifilament erupts, consistent with the JBPs being miniature versions of typical solar flares that occur in the wake of large-scale filament eruptions. Here we consider whether active region coronal jets also result from the same minifilament-eruption mechanism, or whether they instead result from a different mechanism (e.g. Yokoyama & Shibata 1995). We present observations of an on-disk active region (NOAA AR 11513) that produced numerous jets on 2012 June 30, using data from SDO/AIA and HMI, and from GOES/SXI. We find that several of these active region jets also originate with eruptions of miniature filaments (size scale 20'') emanating from small-scale magnetic neutral lines of the region. This demonstrates that active region coronal jets are indeed frequently driven by minifilament eruptions. Other jets from the active region were also consistent with their drivers being minifilament eruptions, but we could not confirm this because the onsets of those jets were hidden from our view. This work was supported by funding from NASA/LWS, NASA/HGI, and Hinode. A full report of this study appears in Sterling et al. (2016).

Time-series analysis of fissure-fed multi-vent activity: a snapshot from the July 2014 eruption of Etna volcano (Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spina, L.; Taddeucci, J.; Cannata, A.; Sciotto, M.; Del Bello, E.; Scarlato, P.; Kueppers, U.; Andronico, D.; Privitera, E.; Ricci, T.; Pena-Fernandez, J.; Sesterhenn, J.; Dingwell, D. B.

2017-07-01

On 5 July 2014, an eruptive fissure opened on the eastern flank of Etna volcano (Italy) at 3.000 m a.s.l. Strombolian activity and lava effusion occurred simultaneously at two neighbouring vents. In the following weeks, eruptive activity led to the build-up of two cones, tens of meters high, here named Crater N and Crater S. To characterize the short-term (days) dynamics of this multi-vent system, we performed a multi-parametric investigation by means of a dense instrumental network. The experimental setup, deployed on July 15-16th at ca. 300 m from the eruption site, comprised two broadband seismometers and three microphones as well as high speed video and thermal cameras. Thermal analyses enabled us to characterize the style of eruptive activity at each vent. In particular, explosive activity at Crater N featured higher thermal amplitudes and a lower explosion frequency than at Crater S. Several episodes of switching between puffing and Strombolian activity were noted at Crater S through both visual observation and thermal data; oppositely, Crater N exhibited a quasi-periodic activity. The quantification of the eruptive style of each vent enabled us to infer the geometry of the eruptive system: a branched conduit, prone to rapid changes of gas flux accommodated at the most inclined conduit (i.e. Crater S). Accordingly, we were able to correctly interpret acoustic data and thereby extend the characterization of this two-vent system.

On the use of UAVs at active volcanoes: a case study from Volcan de Fuego, Guatemala

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Watson, M.; Chigna, G.; Wood, K.; Richardson, T.; Liu, E.; Schellenberg, B.; Thomas, H.; Naismith, A.

2017-12-01

Volcan de Fuego, Guatemala, is one of Central America's most active systems. More than one hundred thousand people live within ten kilometres of the summit, many of them in profound poverty. Both the summit region and the volcano's steep sided valleys present significant access challenges, mostly associated with unacceptably high risk. Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) offer the opportunity to observe, map and quantify emissions of tephra, gas, lava and heat flux and, using structure from motion algorithms, model dynamic topography. During recent campaigns, the team have completed observations of changes in the summit morphology immediately prior a paroxysmal eruption, mapped the key drainage systems after the fifth of May 2017 eruption and sampled the plume for tephra and gases using a range of onboard instruments. I will present the group's findings within a broader context of hazard mitigation and physical volcanology, and discuss the future of UAVs in volcano monitoring and research.

Constraining the Spatial and Temporal Variability of Atmospheric Conditions to Explore the Infrasound Detection of Volcanic Eruptions in Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iezzi, A. M.; Schwaiger, H. F.; Fee, D.; Haney, M. M.

2015-12-01

Alaska's over 50 historically active volcanoes span 2,500 kilometers, and their eruptions pose great threats to the aviation industry. This makes both prompt observations of explosion onsets and changes in intensity a necessity. Due to their expansive range and remoteness, these volcanoes are predominantly monitored by local seismic networks, remote observations including satellite imagery and infrasound sensors. Infrasound is an especially crucial tool in this area because infrasound data collection is not obstructed by frequent cloud cover (as in satellite imagery) and infrasound waves can travel hundreds to thousands of kilometers. However, infrasound station coverage is relatively sparse and strong wind and temperature gradients in the atmosphere create multiple waveguides and shadow zones where the propagation of infrasound is enhanced and diminished, respectively. To accurately constrain volcanic source information and the long-range propagation of infrasound waves, a detailed characterization of the spatial and temporal variability of the atmosphere is vital. These properties can be constrained using a ground-to-space model similar to that of Drob et al. (2003) based upon varied meteorological observations and applied to infrasound waves to model the propagation of infrasound. Here we present the first results of a re-analysis system constructed by the Alaska Volcano Observatory to accurately characterize and model long-range infrasound propagation from volcanic eruptions. We select a number of case studies to examine infrasound detections (or lack thereof) from recent eruptions of Alaskan volcanoes, including the November 2014 eruption of Pavlof Volcano and July 2015 eruption of Cleveland Volcano. Detailed examination of the acoustic propagation conditions will provide additional insight into detection capability and eruption dynamics with future work aiming to implement real-time long-range infrasound propagation modeling.Drob, Douglas P., J. M. Picone, and M. Garcés. "Global morphology of infrasound propagation." Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres (1984-2012) 108.D21 (2003).

Volcano Gas Measurements from UAS - Customization of Sensors and Platforms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Werner, C. A.; Dahlgren, R. P.; Kern, C.; Kelly, P. J.; Fladeland, M. M.; Norton, K.; Johnson, M. S.; Sutton, A. J.; Elias, T.

2015-12-01

Volcanic eruptions threaten not only the lives and property of local populations, but also aviation worldwide. Volcanic gas release is a key driving force in eruptive activity, and monitoring gas emissions is critical to assessing volcanic hazards, yet most volcanoes are not monitored for volcanic gas emission. Measuring volcanic gas emissions with manned aircraft has been standard practice for many years during eruptive crises, but such measurements are quite costly. As a result, measurements are typically only made every week or two at most during periods of unrest or eruption, whereas eruption dynamics change much more rapidly. Furthermore, very few measurements are made between eruptions to establish baseline emissions. Unmanned aerial system (UAS) measurements of volcanic plumes hold great promise for both improving temporal resolution of measurements during volcanic unrest, and for reducing the exposure of personnel to potentially hazardous conditions. Here we present the results of a new collaborative effort between the US Geological Survey and NASA Ames Research Center to develop a UAS specific for volcano gas monitoring using miniaturized gas sensing systems and a custom airframe. Two miniaturized sensing systems are being built and tested: a microDOAS system to quantify SO2 emission rates, and a miniature MultiGAS system for measuring in-situ concentrations of CO2, SO2, and H2S. The instruments are being built into pods that will be flown on a custom airframe built from surplus Raven RQ-11. The Raven is one of the smallest UAS (a SUAS), and has the potential to support global rapid response when eruptions occur because they require less crew for operations. A test mission is planned for fall 2015 or spring 2016 at the Crows Landing Airfield in central California. Future measurement locations might include Kilauea Volcano in Hawaii, or Pagan Volcano in the Marianas.

The ~ 2500 yr B.P. Chicoral non-cohesive debris flow from Cerro Machín Volcano, Colombia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murcia, H. F.; Hurtado, B. O.; Cortés, G. P.; Macías, J. L.; Cepeda, H.

2008-04-01

Cerro Machín Volcano (CMV) is located in the central part of the Colombian Andes (2750 m asl), 150 km southwest of Bogotá. It is considered the most dangerous active volcano of Colombia. CMV has experienced at least six major explosive eruptions during the last 5000 years. These eruptions have emplaced many types of pyroclastic deposits with associated lahars that have traveled more than 100 km. One of these lahars is called Chicoral Debris Flow Deposit (DFD2). This deposit is exposed as discontinuous terraces (3-20 m thick) along the Coello and Magdalena rivers up to 109 km from the source. The DFD2 covers a minimum area of 62 km 2 and has a minimum volume of 0.57 km 3. It comprises two dacite-rich volcaniclastic units. Grain-size analysis reveals that the matrix content and sorting increase with distance while the average grain size decreases. The clay content of the DFD2 matrix is approximately 1%, thus categorizing it as a non-cohesive debris flow. Radiocarbon dates obtained from underlying and overlying paleosols yielded ages of 2505 + 65 and 1640 + 45 yr B.P., respectively. These dates suggest that DFD2 is related to the ~ 2600 yr B.P. El Guaico eruption of CMV. This eruption produced a block-and-ash flow that filled and blocked the Toche River up to 5 km from the volcano. Subsequent remobilization of this loose material by runoff water generated a massive debris flow that traveled 91 km along the Toche and Coello rivers and continued across the Espinal Alluvial Fan debouching into the Magdalena River where it continued another 18 km prior to its transformation into a sediment-laden flow. Because the last eruption of the volcano occurred ca. 900 years ago, no historic activity of CMV is known among inhabitants of the region. Hence the region has developed without awareness of volcanic hazards. Therefore an assessment of volcanic hazards is essential for understanding and evaluating the vulnerability and risk to which people are exposed in case of a future eruption. Such assessment is critical for urban planning, development, contingency, emergency and education planning.

Eruptive history of a low-frequency and low-output rate Pleistocene volcano, Ciomadul, South Harghita Mts., Romania

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Szakács, Alexandru; Seghedi, Ioan; Pécskay, Zoltán; Mirea, Viorel

2015-02-01

Based on a new set of K-Ar age data and detailed field observations, the eruptive history of the youngest volcano in the whole Carpathian-Pannonian region was reconstructed. Ciomadul volcano is a dacitic dome complex located at the southeastern end of the Călimani-Gurghiu-Harghita Neogene volcanic range in the East Carpathians. It consists of a central group of extrusive domes (the Ciomadul Mare and Haramul Mare dome clusters and the Köves Ponk dome) surrounded by a number of isolated peripheral domes, some of them strongly eroded (Bálványos, Puturosul), and others topographically well preserved (Haramul Mic, Dealul Mare). One of the domes (Dealul Cetăţii) still preserves part of its original breccia envelope. A large number of bread-crust bombs found mostly along the southern slopes of the volcano suggest that the dome-building activity at Ciomadul was punctuated by short Vulcanian-type explosive events. Two late-stage explosive events that ended the volcanic activity of Ciomadul left behind two topographically well-preserved craters disrupting the central group of domes: the larger-diameter, shallower, and older Mohoş phreatomagmatic crater and the smaller, deeper and younger Sf. Ana (sub)Plinian crater. Phreatomagmatic products of the Mohoş center, including accretionary lapilli-bearing base-surge deposits and poorly sorted airfall deposits with impact sags, are known close to the eastern crater rim. A key section studied in detail south of Băile Tuşnad shows the temporal succession of eruptive episodes related to the Sf. Ana (sub)Plinian event, as well as relationships with the older dome-building stages. The age of this last eruptive event is loosely constrained by radiocarbon dating of charcoal pieces and paleosoil organic matter at ca. 27-35 ka. The age of the Mohoş eruption is not constrained, but we suggest that it is closely related to the Sf. Ana eruption. The whole volcanic history of Ciomadul spans over ca. 1 Myr, starting with the building up of peripheral domes and then concentrating in its central part. Ciomadul appears as a small-volume (ca. 8.74 km3) and very low-frequency and low-output rate volcano (ca. 9 km3/Myr) at the terminus of a gradually diminishing and extinguishing volcanic range. A number of geodynamically active features strongly suggest that the magma plumbing system beneath Ciomadul is not completely frozen, so future activity cannot be ruled out.

An extended monitoring network for the volcanoes of St. Eustatius and Saba, the Caribbean Netherlands.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Zeeuw-van Dalfsen, Elske; Sleeman, Reinoud; Evers, Läslo G.

2017-04-01

The volcanoes of the Quill (St. Eustatius) and Mt. Scenery (Saba) are part of the Lesser Antilles volcanic island arc in the West Indies, which hosts seventeen active volcanoes. The last eruptive activity at the Quill occurred 1600-1800 years ago but Mt. Scenery erupted as recent as in 1640. The existence of heated groundwater at St. Eustatius and hot springs at Saba indicate that both the Quill and Mt. Scenery are active, but quiet, rather than extinct. Volcanic hazard is therefore present and monitoring of these volcanoes of utmost importance. Especially considering the fact that Soufrière Hills volcano, at the neighbouring island of Montserrat and of comparable nature to Mt. Scenery, started to erupt in 1995 after 450 years of quietness. Currently, a network of four broadband seismometers is operational at each island. Seismic data are transmitted in real-time to the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), where they are (automatically) analysed. We plan to extend this monitoring effort by adding integrated geodetic observations (campaign and continuous GPS, InSAR) and temperature measurements of the hot springs. Furthermore we intend to improve our understanding of the terrain and surface geology by thorough analysis of a TanDEM-X DEM. An improved geophysical characterization of the islands is of great importance both for the population and local governments. These combined efforts will greatly improve the chance to observe the onset and follow the evolution of a future volcanic crisis.

The Interaction of Successive Coronal Mass Ejections: A Review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lugaz, Noé; Temmer, Manuela; Wang, Yuming; Farrugia, Charles J.

2017-04-01

We present a review of the different aspects associated with the interaction of successive coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in the corona and inner heliosphere, focusing on the initiation of series of CMEs, their interaction in the heliosphere, the particle acceleration associated with successive CMEs, and the effect of compound events on Earth's magnetosphere. The two main mechanisms resulting in the eruption of series of CMEs are sympathetic eruptions, when one eruption triggers another, and homologous eruptions, when a series of similar eruptions originates from one active region. CME - CME interaction may also be associated with two unrelated eruptions. The interaction of successive CMEs has been observed remotely in coronagraphs (with the Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph Experiment - LASCO - since the early 2000s) and heliospheric imagers (since the late 2000s), and inferred from in situ measurements, starting with early measurements in the 1970s. The interaction of two or more CMEs is associated with complex phenomena, including magnetic reconnection, momentum exchange, the propagation of a fast magnetosonic shock through a magnetic ejecta, and changes in the CME expansion. The presence of a preceding CME a few hours before a fast eruption has been found to be connected with higher fluxes of solar energetic particles (SEPs), while CME - CME interaction occurring in the corona is often associated with unusual radio bursts, indicating electron acceleration. Higher suprathermal population, enhanced turbulence and wave activity, stronger shocks, and shock - shock or shock - CME interaction have been proposed as potential physical mechanisms to explain the observed associated SEP events. When measured in situ, CME - CME interaction may be associated with relatively well organized multiple-magnetic cloud events, instances of shocks propagating through a previous magnetic ejecta or more complex ejecta, when the characteristics of the individual eruptions cannot be easily distinguished. CME - CME interaction is associated with some of the most intense recorded geomagnetic storms. The compression of a CME by another and the propagation of a shock inside a magnetic ejecta can lead to extreme values of the southward magnetic field component, sometimes associated with high values of the dynamic pressure. This can result in intense geomagnetic storms, but can also trigger substorms and large earthward motions of the magnetopause, potentially associated with changes in the outer radiation belts. Future in situ measurements in the inner heliosphere by Solar Probe+ and Solar Orbiter may shed light on the evolution of CMEs as they interact, by providing opportunities for conjunction and evolutionary studies.

The Campi Flegrei Deep Drilling Project: using borehole measurements to discriminate magmatic and geothermal effects in caldera unrest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Natale, Giuseppe; Troise, Claudia; Carlino, Stefano; Troiano, Antonio; Giulia Di Giuseppe, Maria; Piochi, Monica; Somma, Renato; Tramelli, Anna; Kilburn, Christopher

2015-04-01

Large calderas are potentially the most risky volcanic areas in the world since they are capable of producing huge eruptions whose major effects can involve human life and activities from regional to global scale. Calderas worldwide are characterized by frequent episodes of unrest which, only in few cases, culminate with eruptions. This ambiguous behavior is generally explained in terms of magma intrusion or disturbance of geothermal fluids in the shallow crust, which are both source of ground deformations and seismicity. A major goal is to determine the relative contribution of each process, because the potential for eruptions significantly enhanced if magma movements emerge as the primary component. A very important case study is the active Campi Flegrei caldera, hosting part of the large city of Naples (Southern Italy). In the framework of the Campi Flegrei Deep Drilling Project new filed data from pilot borehole have been recorded (permeability and in situ stress) by using a novel procedure of Leak Off Test. These new data, particularly the actual permeability, are fundamental to calibrate the caldera unrest models at Campi Flegrei and, , to put constrains to forecast the maximum future eruptive scenario. We show here that these new data, integrated by fluid-dynamical modeling, allow to assess that only about a third of the maximum uplift recorded in 1982-1984 may be due to shallow aquifer perturbation, so that the remaining part should be due to magma inflow, corresponding to about 0.05 Km3 of new magma if we assume a sill-like reservoir located at 4 km of depth. Considering an almost equivalent magma inflow for the 1969-1972 unrest, which showed a similar uplift, we got a total magma inflow of 0.1 Km3. It is then very important to assess the times for cooling of such accumulated magma, in order to assess the eruption hazard.

Developing a NASA strategy for sampling a major Pinatubo-like volcanic eruption

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Newman, P. A.; Jucks, K. W.; Maring, H. B.

2016-12-01

Based on history, it is reasonable to expect a major volcanic eruption in the foreseeable future. By "major volcanic eruption", we mean an eruption that injects a substantial amount of material, gases and particles, into the stratosphere as a result of one eruption event. Such a volcanic eruption can impact weather, climate, and atmospheric chemistry on regional, hemispheric and global scales over significant time periods. Further, such an eruption can be an unintended analog for a number of geo-engineering schemes for mitigating greenhouse warming of the Earth. In order to understand and project the consequences of a major eruption, it is necessary to make a number of observations from a variety of perspectives. Such an eruption will occur, in the immediate sense, unexpectedly. Therefore, it is wise to have a thoughtfully developed plan for executing a rapid response that makes useful observations. A workshop was held on 17-18 May 2016 at NASA GSFC to develop a NASA observation strategy that could be quickly implemented in response to a major volcanic eruption, and would characterize the changes to atmospheric (especially stratospheric) composition following a large volcanic eruption. In this presentation we will provide an overview of the elements of this strategy with respect to satellite, balloon, ground, and aircraft observations. In addition, models simulations and forecasts will play a key role in any response strategy. Results will also be shown from a spectrum of simulations of volcanic eruptions that support this NASA strategy.

THE EVOLUTION OF THE ELECTRIC CURRENT DURING THE FORMATION AND ERUPTION OF ACTIVE-REGION FILAMENTS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Jincheng; Yan, Xiaoli; Qu, Zhongquan

We present a comprehensive study of the electric current related to the formation and eruption of active region filaments in NOAA AR 11884. The vertical current on the solar surface was investigated by using vector magnetograms (VMs) observed by HMI on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory. To obtain the electric current along the filament's axis, we reconstructed the magnetic fields above the photosphere by using nonlinear force-free field extrapolation based on photospheric VMs. Spatio-temporal evolutions of the vertical current on the photospheric surface and the horizontal current along the filament's axis were studied during the long-term evolution and eruption-related period,more » respectively. The results show that the vertical currents of the entire active region behaved with a decreasing trend and the magnetic fields also kept decreasing during the long-term evolution. For the eruption-related evolution, the mean transverse field strengths decreased before two eruptions and increased sharply after two eruptions in the vicinity of the polarity inversion lines underneath the filament. The related vertical current showed different behaviors in two of the eruptions. On the other hand, a very interesting feature was found: opposite horizontal currents with respect to the current of the filament's axis appeared and increased under the filament before the eruptions and disappeared after the eruptions. We suggest that these opposite currents were carried by the new flux emerging from the photosphere bottom and might be the trigger mechanism for these filament eruptions.« less

SOLAR ERUPTION AND LOCAL MAGNETIC PARAMETERS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lee, Jeongwoo; Chae, Jongchul; Liu, Chang

It is now a common practice to use local magnetic parameters such as magnetic decay index for explaining solar eruptions from active regions, but there can be an alternative view that the global properties of the source region should be counted as a more important factor. We discuss this issue based on Solar Dynamics Observatory observations of the three successive eruptions within 1.5 hr from the NOAA active region 11444 and the magnetic parameters calculated using the nonlinear force-free field model. Two violent eruptions occurred in the regions with relatively high magnetic twist number (0.5–1.5) and high decay index (0.9–1.1)more » at the nominal height of the filament (12″) and otherwise a mild eruption occurred, which supports the local-parameter paradigm. Our main point is that the time sequence of the eruptions did not go with these parameters. It is argued that an additional factor, in the form of stabilizing force, should operate to determine the onset of the first eruption and temporal behaviors of subsequent eruptions. As supporting evidence, we report that the heating and fast plasma flow continuing for a timescale of an hour was the direct cause for the first eruption and that the unidirectional propagation of the disturbance determined the timing of subsequent eruptions. Both of these factors are associated with the overall magnetic structure rather than local magnetic properties of the active region.« less

Kilauea's 5-9 March 2011 Kamoamoa fissure eruption and its relation to 30+ years of activity from Pu'u 'Ō'ō: Chapter 18

USGS Publications Warehouse

Orr, Tim R.; Poland, Michael P.; Patrick, Matthew R.; Thelen, Weston A.; Sutton, A.J.; Elias, Tamar; Thornber, Carl R.; Parcheta, Carolyn; Wooten, Kelly M.; Carey, Rebecca; Cayol, Valérie; Poland, Michael P.; Weis, Dominique

2015-01-01

Lava output from Kīlauea's long-lived East Rift Zone eruption, ongoing since 1983, began waning in 2010 and was coupled with uplift, increased seismicity, and rising lava levels at the volcano's summit and Pu‘u ‘Ō‘ō vent. These changes culminated in the four-day-long Kamoamoa fissure eruption on the East Rift Zone starting on 5 March 2011. About 2.7 × 106 m3 of lava erupted, accompanied by ˜15 cm of summit subsidence, draining of Kīlauea's summit lava lake, a 113 m drop of Pu‘u ‘Ō‘ō's crater floor, ˜3 m of East Rift Zone widening, and eruptive SO2 emissions averaging 8500 tonnes/day. Lava effusion resumed at Pu‘u ‘Ō‘ō shortly after the Kamoamoa eruption ended, marking the onset of a new period of East Rift Zone activity. Multiparameter monitoring before and during the Kamoamoa eruption suggests that it was driven by an imbalance between magma supplied to and erupted from Kīlauea's East Rift Zone and that eruptive output is affected by changes in the geometry of the rift zone plumbing system. These results imply that intrusions and eruptive changes during ongoing activity at Kīlauea may be anticipated from the geophysical, geological, and geochemical manifestations of magma supply and magma plumbing system geometry.

High-resolution Observations of Sympathetic Filament Eruptions by NVST

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Li, Shangwei; Su, Yingna; Zhou, Tuanhui

We investigate two sympathetic filament eruptions observed by the New Vacuum Solar Telescope on 2015 October 15. The full picture of the eruptions is obtained from the corresponding Solar Dynamics Observatory ( SDO )/Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) observations. The two filaments start from active region NOAA 12434 in the north and end in one large quiescent filament channel in the south. The left filament erupts first, followed by the right filament eruption about 10 minutes later. Clear twist structure and rotating motion are observed in both filaments during the eruption. Both eruptions failed, since the filaments first rise up, thenmore » flow toward the south and merge into the southern large quiescent filament. We also observe repeated activations of mini filaments below the right filament after its eruption. Using magnetic field models constructed based on SDO /HMI magnetograms via the flux rope insertion method, we find that the left filament eruption is likely to be triggered by kink instability, while the weakening of overlying magnetic fields due to magnetic reconnection at an X-point between the two filament systems might play an important role in the onset of the right filament eruption.« less

Incorporating the eruptive history in a stochastic model for volcanic eruptions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bebbington, Mark

2008-08-01

We show how a stochastic version of a general load-and-discharge model for volcanic eruptions can be implemented. The model tracks the history of the volcano through a quantity proportional to stored magma volume. Thus large eruptions can influence the activity rate for a considerable time following, rather than only the next repose as in the time-predictable model. The model can be fitted to data using point-process methods. Applied to flank eruptions of Mount Etna, it exhibits possible long-term quasi-cyclic behavior, and to Mauna Loa, a long-term decrease in activity. An extension to multiple interacting sources is outlined, which may be different eruption styles or locations, or different volcanoes. This can be used to identify an 'average interaction' between the sources. We find significant evidence that summit eruptions of Mount Etna are dependent on preceding flank eruptions, with both flank and summit eruptions being triggered by the other type. Fitted to Mauna Loa and Kilauea, the model had a marginally significant relationship between eruptions of Mauna Loa and Kilauea, consistent with the invasion of the latter's plumbing system by magma from the former.

Stratospheric Ozone destruction by the Bronze-Age Minoan eruption (Santorini Volcano, Greece)

PubMed Central

Cadoux, Anita; Scaillet, Bruno; Bekki, Slimane; Oppenheimer, Clive; Druitt, Timothy H.

2015-01-01

The role of volcanogenic halogen-bearing (i.e. chlorine and bromine) compounds in stratospheric ozone chemistry and climate forcing is poorly constrained. While the 1991 eruption of Pinatubo resulted in stratospheric ozone loss, it was due to heterogeneous chemistry on volcanic sulfate aerosols involving chlorine of anthropogenic rather than volcanogenic origin, since co-erupted chlorine was scavenged within the plume. Therefore, it is not known what effect volcanism had on ozone in pre-industrial times, nor what will be its role on future atmospheres with reduced anthropogenic halogens present. By combining petrologic constraints on eruption volatile yields with a global atmospheric chemistry-transport model, we show here that the Bronze-Age ‘Minoan’ eruption of Santorini Volcano released far more halogens than sulfur and that, even if only 2% of these halogens reached the stratosphere, it would have resulted in strong global ozone depletion. The model predicts reductions in ozone columns of 20 to >90% at Northern high latitudes and an ozone recovery taking up to a decade. Our findings emphasise the significance of volcanic halogens for stratosphere chemistry and suggest that modelling of past and future volcanic impacts on Earth’s ozone, climate and ecosystems should systematically consider volcanic halogen emissions in addition to sulfur emissions. PMID:26206616

Stratospheric Ozone destruction by the Bronze-Age Minoan eruption (Santorini Volcano, Greece).

PubMed

Cadoux, Anita; Scaillet, Bruno; Bekki, Slimane; Oppenheimer, Clive; Druitt, Timothy H

2015-07-24

The role of volcanogenic halogen-bearing (i.e. chlorine and bromine) compounds in stratospheric ozone chemistry and climate forcing is poorly constrained. While the 1991 eruption of Pinatubo resulted in stratospheric ozone loss, it was due to heterogeneous chemistry on volcanic sulfate aerosols involving chlorine of anthropogenic rather than volcanogenic origin, since co-erupted chlorine was scavenged within the plume. Therefore, it is not known what effect volcanism had on ozone in pre-industrial times, nor what will be its role on future atmospheres with reduced anthropogenic halogens present. By combining petrologic constraints on eruption volatile yields with a global atmospheric chemistry-transport model, we show here that the Bronze-Age 'Minoan' eruption of Santorini Volcano released far more halogens than sulfur and that, even if only 2% of these halogens reached the stratosphere, it would have resulted in strong global ozone depletion. The model predicts reductions in ozone columns of 20 to >90% at Northern high latitudes and an ozone recovery taking up to a decade. Our findings emphasise the significance of volcanic halogens for stratosphere chemistry and suggest that modelling of past and future volcanic impacts on Earth's ozone, climate and ecosystems should systematically consider volcanic halogen emissions in addition to sulfur emissions.

Volcanic eruptions on Io

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Strom, R. G.; Schneider, N. M.; Terrile, R. J.; Hansen, C.; Cook, A. F.

1981-01-01

Nine eruption plumes which were observed during the Voyager 1 encounter with Io are discussed. During the Voyager 2 encounter, four months later, eight of the eruptions were still active although the largest became inactive sometime between the two encounters. Plumes range in height from 60 to over 300 km with corresponding ejection velocities of 0.5 to 1.0 km/s and plume sources are located on several plains and consist of fissures or calderas. The shape and brightness distribution together with the pattern of the surface deposition on a plume 3 is simulated by a ballistic model with a constant ejection velocity of 0.5 km/s and ejection angles which vary from 0-55 deg. The distribution of active and recent eruptions is concentrated in the equatorial regions and indicates that volcanic activity is more frequent and intense in the equatorial regions than in the polar regions. Due to the geologic setting of certain plume sources and large reservoirs of volatiles required for the active eruptions, it is concluded that sulfur volcanism rather than silicate volcanism is the most likely driving mechanism for the eruption plumes.

El Chichón's "surprise" eruption in 1982: lessons for reducing volcano risk

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tilling, R.I.

2009-01-01

Unfortunately, the eruptions came as an almost total surprise for scientists and government authorities, effectively precluding opportunities to implement timely mitigative countermeasures. During the months before eruption onset, fumarolic activity increased and inhabitants living close to the volcano felt occasional earthquakes, prompting the Chiapas government to request help from the Federal government. Both the Chiapas and Federal governmental actions were slow, and the requested assistance came after the volcano erupted. Perhaps the most important lesson learned from the disastrous outcome at El Chichón is that its decreased activity (29 March–2 April) should not have been assumed by the senior scientist on site—and the military authorities acting on his advice—to signal the end of eruption. While the 1982 eruptions caused a national tragedy, they also fostered multidisciplinary studies of eruptive phenomena, not only at El Chichón but also other explosive volcanoes in the world.

Combined Hinode, STEREO, and TRACE Observations of a Solar Filament Eruption: Evidence for Destabilization by Flux-Cancelation Tether Cutting

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sterling, Alphonse C.; Moore, R. L.

2007-01-01

We present observations from Hinode, STEREO, and TRACE of a solar filament eruption and flare that occurred on 2007 March 2. Data from the two new satellites, combined with the TRACE observations, give us fresh insights into the eruption onset process. HINODE/XRT shows soft X-ray (SXR) activity beginning approximately 30 minutes prior to ignition of bright flare loops. STEREO andTRACE images show that the filament underwent relatively slow motions coinciding with the pre-eruption SXR brightenings, and it underwent rapid eruptive motions beginning near the time of flare onset. Concurrent HINODE/SOT magnetograms showed substantial flux cancelation under the filament at the site of the pre-eruption SXR activity. From these observations we infer that progressive tether-cutting reconnection driven by photospheric convection caused the slow rise of the filament and led to its eruption. NASA supported this work through a NASA Heliosphysics GI grant.

Monitoring El Hierro submarine volcanic eruption events with a submarine seismic array

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jurado, Maria Jose; Molino, Erik; Lopez, Carmen

2013-04-01

A submarine volcanic eruption took place near the southernmost emerged land of the El Hierro Island (Canary Islands, Spain), from October 2011 to February 2012. The Instituto Geografico Nacional (IGN) seismic stations network evidenced seismic unrest since July 2012 and was a reference also to follow the evolution of the seismic activity associated with the volcanic eruption. From the beginning of the eruption a geophone string was installed less than 2 km away from the new volcano, next to La Restinga village shore, to record seismic activity related to the volcanic activity, continuously and with special interest on high frequency events. The seismic array was endowed with 8, high frequency, 3 component, 250 Hz, geophone cable string with a separation of 6 m between them. The analysis of the dataset using spectral techniques allows the characterization of the different phases of the eruption and the study of its dynamics. The correlation of the data analysis results with the observed sea surface activity (ash and lava emission and degassing) and also with the seismic activity recorded by the IGN field seismic monitoring system, allows the identification of different stages suggesting the existence of different signal sources during the volcanic eruption and also the posteruptive record of the degassing activity. The study shows that the high frequency capability of the geophone array allow the study of important features that cannot be registered by the standard seismic stations. The accumulative spectral amplitude show features related to eruptive changes.

Maps showing the development of the Pu'u 'O'o-Kupaianaha flow field, June 1984-February 1987, Kilauea Volcano, Hawaii

USGS Publications Warehouse

Heliker, Christina; Ulrich, George E.; Margriter, Sandy C.; Hoffmann, John P.

2001-01-01

The Pu'u 'O'o - Kupaianaha eruption on the middle east rift zone of Kilauea began in January 1983 with intermittent activity along several fissures. By June 1983, the eruption had localized at the Pu'u 'O'o vent, and the activity settled into an increasingly regular pattern of brief eruptive episodes characterized by high lava fountains. The first 18 months of this eruption are chronicled in Wolfe and others (1988), which includes maps of the flows erupted in episodes 1-20. The maps presented here extend this series through the beginning of episode 48.

The ten-year eruption of Kilauea Volcano

USGS Publications Warehouse

Clague, D.A.; Heliker, C.

1992-01-01

About 1 km3 of lava erupted during the first 0 years of the eruption. Lava flows have destroyed 181 houses and severed the coastal highway along the volcano's south flank, severely restricting transportation on this part of the island of Hawaii. the eruption consisted of many distinct episodes characterized by activity at different vents and by different eruptive styles. the following summarizes the first 10 years of the eruption, starting with the initial outbreak in 1983.

SYMPATHETIC FILAMENT ERUPTIONS CONNECTED BY CORONAL DIMMINGS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jiang Yunchun; Yang Jiayan; Hong Junchao

2011-09-10

We present for the first time detailed observations of three successive, interdependent filament eruptions that occurred one by one within 5 hr from different locations beyond the range of a single active region. The first eruption was observed from an active region and was associated with a coronal mass ejection (CME), during which diffuse and complex coronal dimmings formed, largely extending to the two other filaments located in quiet-Sun regions. Then, both quiescent filaments consecutively underwent the second and third eruptions, while the nearby dimmings were persistent. Comparing the result of a derived coronal magnetic configuration, the magnetic connectivity betweenmore » the dimmings suggested that they were caused by the joint effect of simple expansion of overlying loop systems forced by the first eruption, as well as by its erupting field interacting or reconnecting with the surrounding magnetic structures. Note that the dimming process in the first eruption indicated a weakening and partial removal of an overlying magnetic field constraint on the two other filaments, and thus one can physically connect these eruptions as sympathetic. It appears that the peculiar magnetic field configuration in our event was largely favorable to the occurrence of sympathetic filament eruptions. Because coronal dimmings are frequent and common phenomena in solar eruptions, especially in CME events, it is very likely that they represent a universal agent that can link consecutive eruptions nearby with sympathetic eruptions.« less

Multi-disciplinary Monitoring of the 2014 Eruption of Fogo Volcano, Cape Verde

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernandes, R. M. S.; Faria, B. V. E.

2015-12-01

The Fogo volcano, located in the Cape Verde Archipelago (offshore Western Africa), is a complete stratovolcano system. It is the most recent expression of the Cape Verde hotspot, that has formed the archipelago. The summit reaches ~2830m above sea level, and raises 1100m above Chã das Caldeiras, an almost flat circular area. The last eruption of Fogo started on November 23, 2014 (~10:00UTC), after 19 years of inactivity. C4G, a distributed research infrastructure created in 2014 in the framework of the Portuguese Roadmap for Strategic Research Infrastructures, collaborated immediately with INMG, the Cape Verdean Meteorological and Geophysical Institut with the goal of complementing the permanent geophysical monitoring network in operation on Fogo island. The INMG permanent network is composed of seven seismographic stations and three tiltmeter stations, with real-time data transmitted. On the basis of increased pre-event activity (which started in October 2014), INMG issued a formal alert of an impending eruption to the Civil Protection Agency, about 24 hours before the onset of the eruption. Although the eruption caused no casualties or personal injuries due to the warnings issued, the lava expelled by the eruption (which last until the end of January) destroyed the two main villages in the caldera (~1000 inhabitants) and covered vast areas of agricultural land, causing very large economic losses and an uncertain future of the local populations. The C4G team installed a network of seven GNSS receivers and nine seismometers, distributed by the entire island. The data collection started on 28th November 2014, and continued until the end of January 2015. The mission also included a new detailed gravimetric survey of the island, the acquisition of geological samples, and the analysis of the air quality during the eruption. We present here a detailed description of the monitoring efforts carried out during the eruption as well as initial results of the analysis of the data collected. This monitoring effort carried out at the request and in collaboration with INMG, was made possible by an emergency financial support provided by Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia, Portugal.

The June-July 2007 collapse and refilling of Puʻu ʻŌʻō Crater, Kilauea Volcano, Hawaiʻi

USGS Publications Warehouse

Orr, Tim R.

2014-01-01

Episode 57 of Kīlauea’s long-lived east rift zone eruption was characterized by lava effusion and spattering within the crater at Puʻu ʻŌʻō that lasted from July 1 to July 20, 2007. This eruptive episode represented a resumption of activity following a 12-day eruptive hiatus on Kīlauea associated with the episode 56 intrusion and eruption near Kāne Nui o Hamo cone, uprift from Puʻu ʻŌʻō, on June 17–19, 2007. The withdrawal of magma from beneath Puʻu ʻŌʻō led to the collapse of Puʻu ʻŌʻō’s crater floor, forming a concave depression ~85 m deep. After the hiatus, episode 57 lava began to erupt from two vents within Puʻu ʻŌʻō, quickly constructing a lava lake and filling the crater to within 5 m of the precollapse lava level (25 m of the pre-collapse crater floor). Starting July 8, effusion waned as the crater floor began to rise. As uplift progressed, new vents opened along a circumferential fracture that accommodated the displacement. The bulk volume of filling within the Puʻu ʻŌʻō crater and flank pits during episode 57, including both surficial lava accumulation and endogenous growth, is estimated at 1.3×106 m3. This volume equates to a time-averaged dense rock equivalent accumulation rate of 0.6 m3 s-1, which is an order of magnitude less than the supply rate to the volcano at that time, suggesting that most of the magma entering the volcano was being stored. Eruptive activity in Puʻu ʻŌʻō ended late on July 20, and the floor of the crater began to subside rapidly. Shortly afterward, early on July 21, a new fissure eruption started on the northeast flank of Puʻu ʻŌʻō, marking the onset of episode 58. The June–July 2007 collapse and refilling of the Puʻu ʻŌʻō crater, culminating in a new breakout outside of Puʻu ʻŌʻō, illustrates the response of a long-lived eruptive center in Kīlauea’s East Rift Zone to an uprift intrusion. Variations of this pattern occurred several times at Puʻu ʻŌʻō before 2007 and have occurred again since. Recognition of this pattern has improved the monitoring capability of the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory and will aid in future eruption response efforts.

Probablistic Analyses of Waste Package Quantities Impacted by Potential Igneous Disruption at Yucca Mountain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wallace, M. G.; Iuzzolina, H.

2005-12-01

A probabilistic analysis was conducted to estimate ranges for the numbers of waste packages that could be damaged in a potential future igneous event through a repository at Yucca Mountain. The analysis includes disruption from an intrusive igneous event and from an extrusive volcanic event. This analysis supports the evaluation of the potential consequences of future igneous activity as part of the total system performance assessment for the license application for the Yucca Mountain Project (YMP). The first scenario, igneous intrusion, investigated the case where one or more igneous dikes intersect the repository. A swarm of dikes was characterized by distributions of length, width, azimuth, and number of dikes and the spacings between them. Through the use in part of a latin hypercube simulator and a modified video game engine, mathematical relationships were built between those parameters and the number of waste packages hit. Corresponding cumulative distribution function curves (CDFs) for the number of waste packages hit under several different scenarios were calculated. Variations in dike thickness ranges, as well as in repository magma bulkhead positions were examined through sensitivity studies. It was assumed that all waste packages in an emplacement drift would be impacted if that drift was intersected by a dike. Over 10,000 individual simulations were performed. Based on these calculations, out of a total of over 11,000 planned waste packages distributed over an area of approximately 5.5 km2 , the median number of waste packages impacted was roughly 1/10 of the total. Individual cases ranged from 0 waste packages to the entire inventory being impacted. The igneous intrusion analysis involved an explicit characterization of dike-drift intersections, built upon various distributions that reflect the uncertainties associated with the inputs. The second igneous scenario, volcanic eruption (eruptive conduits), considered the effects of conduits formed in association with a volcanic eruption through the repository. Mathematical relations were built between the resulting conduit areas and the fraction of the repository area occupied by waste packages. This relation was used in conjunction with a joint distribution incorporating variability in eruptive conduit diameters and in the number of eruptive conduits that could intersect the repository.

Using Websites to Convey Scientific Uncertainties for Volcanic Processes and Potential Hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Venezky, D. Y.; Lowenstern, J. B.; Hill, D. P.

2005-12-01

The Yellowstone Volcano Observatory (YVO) and Long Valley Observatory (LVO) websites have greatly increased the public's awareness and access to information about scientific uncertainties for volcanic processes by communicating at multiple levels of understanding and varied levels of detail. Our websites serve a broad audience ranging from visitors unaware of the calderas, to lay volcano enthusiasts, to scientists, federal agencies, and emergency managers. Both Yellowstone and Long Valley are highly visited tourist attractions with histories of caldera-forming eruptions large enough to alter global climate temporarily. Although it is much more likely that future activity would be on a small scale at either volcano, we are constantly posed questions about low-probability, high-impact events such as the caldera-forming eruption depicted in the recent BBC/Discovery movie, "Supervolcano". YVO and LVO website objectives include: providing monitoring data, explaining the likelihood of future events, summarizing research results, helping media provide reliable information, and expanding on information presented by the media. Providing detailed current information is a crucial website component as the public often searches online to augment information gained from often cryptic pronouncements by the media. In May 2005, for example, YVO saw an order of magnitude increase in page requests on the day MSNBC ran the misleading headline, "Yellowstone eruption threat high." The headline referred not to current events but a general rating of Yellowstone as one of 37 "high threat" volcanoes in the USGS National Volcano Early Warning System report. As websites become a more dominant source of information, we continuously revise our communication plans to make the most of this evolving medium. Because the internet gives equal access to all information providers, we find ourselves competing with various "doomsday" websites that sensationalize and distort the current understanding of natural systems. For example, many sites highlight a miscalculated repose period for caldera-forming eruptions at Yellowstone and conclude that a catastrophic eruption is overdue. Recent revisions on the YVO website have discussed how intervals are calculated and why the commonly quoted values are incorrect. Our aim is to reduce confusion by providing clear, simple explanations that highlight the process by which scientists reach conclusions and calculate associated uncertainties.

Compositional evolution of magma from Parícutin Volcano, Mexico: The tephra record

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Erlund, E. J.; Cashman, K. V.; Wallace, P. J.; Pioli, L.; Rosi, M.; Johnson, E.; Granados, H. Delgado

2010-11-01

The birth of Parícutin Volcano, Mexico, in 1943 provides an unprecedented opportunity to document the development of a monogenetic cinder cone and its associated lava flows and tephra blanket. Three 'type' sections provide a complete tephra record for the eruption, which is placed in a temporal framework by comparing both bulk tephra and olivine phenocryst compositions to dated samples of lava and tephra. Our data support the hypothesis of Luhr (2001) that the first four months of activity were fed by a magma batch (Phase 1) that was distinct from the magma that supplied the subsequent eight years of activity. We further suggest that the earliest erupted (vanguard) magma records evidence of temporary residence at shallow levels prior to eruption, suggesting early development of a dike and sill complex beneath the vent. Depletion of this early batch led to diminished eruptive activity in June and July of 1943, while arrival of the second magma batch (Phase 2) reinvigorated activity in late July. Phase 2 fed explosive activity from mid-1943 through 1946, although most of the tephra was deposited by the end of 1945. Phase 3 of the eruption began in mid-1947 with rapid evolution of magma compositions from basaltic andesite to andesite and dominance of lava effusion. The combined physical and chemical characteristics of the erupted material present a new interpretation of the physical conditions that led to compositional evolution of the magma. We believe that syn-eruptive assimilation of wall rock in a shallow complex of dikes and sills is more likely than pre-eruptive assimilation within a large magma chamber, as previously assumed. We further suggest that waning rates of magma supply from the deep feeder system allowed evolved, shallowly stored magma to enter the conduit in 1947, thus triggering the rapid observed change in the erupted magma composition. This physical model predicts that assimilation should be observable in other monogenetic eruptions, particularly those with low pressure melt inclusions and with eruption durations of months to years.

Clustering and Hazard Estimation in the Auckland Volcanic Field, New Zealand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cronin, S. J.; Bebbington, M. S.

2009-12-01

The Auckland Volcanic Field (AVF) with its 49 eruptive centres formed over the last c. 250 ka presents several unique challenges to our understanding of distributed volcanic field construction and evolution. Due to the youth of the field, high-resolution stratigraphy of eruption centres and ash-fall sequences is possible, allowing time-breaks, soil and peat formation between eruption units to be identified. Radiocarbon dating of sediments between volcanic deposits shows that at least five of the centres have erupted on more than one occasion, with time breaks of 50-100 years between episodes. In addition, paleomagnetic and ash fall evidence implies that there has been strong clustering of eruption events over time, with a specific “flare-up” event involving over possibly up to 19 eruptions occurring between 35-25 ka, in spatially disparate locations. An additional complicating factor is that the only centre that shows any major evidence for evolution out of standard alkali basaltic compositions is also the youngest and largest in volume by several orders of magnitude. All of these features of the AVF, along with relatively poor age-control for many of the vents make spatio-temporal hazard forecasting for the field based on assumptions of past behaviour extremely difficult. Any relationships that take volumetric considerations into account are particularly difficult, since any trend analysis produces unreasonably large future eruptions. The most reasonable model is spatial, via eruption location. We have re-examined the age progression of eruptive events in the AVF, incorporating the most reliable sources of age and stratigraphic data, including developing new correlations between ashfall records in cores and likely vent locations via a probabilistic model of tephra dispersal. A Monte Carlo procedure using the age-progression, stratigraphy and dating constraints can then randomly reproduce likely orderings of events in the field. These were fitted by a clustering-based model of vent locations as originally applied by Magill et al (2005: Mathematical Geol. 37: 227-242) to the Allen and Smith (1994; Geosci. Report Shizuoka Univ 20: 5-14) age ordering of volcanism at AVF. Applying this model, modified by allowing continuation of activity at or around the youngest event, to sampled age orderings from the Monte Carlo procedure shows a very different spatial forecast to the earlier analysis. It is also different to the distribution from randomly ordered events, implying there is at least some clustering control on the location of eruptions in the field. Further iterations of this modelling approach will be tested in relation to eruptive volume and applied to other comparative volcanic fields.

MeMoVolc report on classification and dynamics of volcanic explosive eruptions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonadonna, C.; Cioni, R.; Costa, A.; Druitt, T.; Phillips, J.; Pioli, L.; Andronico, D.; Harris, A.; Scollo, S.; Bachmann, O.; Bagheri, G.; Biass, S.; Brogi, F.; Cashman, K.; Dominguez, L.; Dürig, T.; Galland, O.; Giordano, G.; Gudmundsson, M.; Hort, M.; Höskuldsson, A.; Houghton, B.; Komorowski, J. C.; Küppers, U.; Lacanna, G.; Le Pennec, J. L.; Macedonio, G.; Manga, M.; Manzella, I.; Vitturi, M. de'Michieli; Neri, A.; Pistolesi, M.; Polacci, M.; Ripepe, M.; Rossi, E.; Scheu, B.; Sulpizio, R.; Tripoli, B.; Valade, S.; Valentine, G.; Vidal, C.; Wallenstein, N.

2016-11-01

Classifications of volcanic eruptions were first introduced in the early twentieth century mostly based on qualitative observations of eruptive activity, and over time, they have gradually been developed to incorporate more quantitative descriptions of the eruptive products from both deposits and observations of active volcanoes. Progress in physical volcanology, and increased capability in monitoring, measuring and modelling of explosive eruptions, has highlighted shortcomings in the way we classify eruptions and triggered a debate around the need for eruption classification and the advantages and disadvantages of existing classification schemes. Here, we (i) review and assess existing classification schemes, focussing on subaerial eruptions; (ii) summarize the fundamental processes that drive and parameters that characterize explosive volcanism; (iii) identify and prioritize the main research that will improve the understanding, characterization and classification of volcanic eruptions and (iv) provide a roadmap for producing a rational and comprehensive classification scheme. In particular, classification schemes need to be objective-driven and simple enough to permit scientific exchange and promote transfer of knowledge beyond the scientific community. Schemes should be comprehensive and encompass a variety of products, eruptive styles and processes, including for example, lava flows, pyroclastic density currents, gas emissions and cinder cone or caldera formation. Open questions, processes and parameters that need to be addressed and better characterized in order to develop more comprehensive classification schemes and to advance our understanding of volcanic eruptions include conduit processes and dynamics, abrupt transitions in eruption regime, unsteadiness, eruption energy and energy balance.

Monitoring a restless volcano: The 2004 eruption of Mount St. Helens

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gardner, C.

2005-01-01

Although the precise course of volcanic activity is difficult to predict, volcanologists are pretty adept at interpreting volcanic signals from well-monitored volcanoes in order to make short-term forecasts. Various monitoring tools record effects to give us warning before eruptions, changes in eruptive behavior during eruptions, or signals that an eruption is ending. Foremost among these tools is seismic monitoring. The character, size, depth and rate of earthquakes are all important to the interpretation of what is happening belowground. The first inkling of renewed activity at Mount St. Helens began in the early hours of Sept. 23, when a seismic swarm - tens to hundreds of earthquakes over days to a week - began beneath the volcano. This article details the obervations made during the eruptive sequence.

2007 Volcanic activity in Alaska, Kamchatka, and the Kurile Islands: Summary of events and response of the Alaska Volcano Observatory

USGS Publications Warehouse

McGimsey, Robert G.; Neal, Christina A.; Dixon, James P.; Malik, Nataliya; Chibisova, Marina

2011-01-01

The Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO) responded to eruptions, possible eruptions, and volcanic unrest at or near nine separate volcanic centers in Alaska during 2007. The year was highlighted by the eruption of Pavlof, one of Alaska's most frequently active volcanoes. Glaciated Fourpeaked Mountain, a volcano thought to have been inactive in the Holocene, produced a phreatic eruption in the autumn of 2006 and continued to emit copious amounts of steam and volcanic gas into 2007. Redoubt Volcano showed the first signs of the unrest that would unfold in 2008-09. AVO staff also participated in hazard communication and monitoring of multiple eruptions at seven volcanoes in Russia as part of its collaborative role in the Kamchatka and Sakhalin Volcanic Eruption Response Teams.

A retrospective study on acute health effects due to volcanic ash exposure during the eruption of Mount Etna (Sicily) in 2002.

PubMed

Lombardo, Daniele; Ciancio, Nicola; Campisi, Raffaele; Di Maria, Annalisa; Bivona, Laura; Poletti, Venerino; Mistretta, Antonio; Biggeri, Annibale; Di Maria, Giuseppe

2013-08-07

Mount Etna, located in the eastern part of Sicily (Italy), is the highest and most active volcano in Europe. During the sustained eruption that occurred in October-November 2002 huge amounts of volcanic ash fell on a densely populated area south-east of Mount Etna in Catania province. The volcanic ash fall caused extensive damage to infrastructure utilities and distress in the exposed population. This retrospective study evaluates whether or not there was an association between ash fall and acute health effects in exposed local communities. We collected the number and type of visits to the emergency department (ED) for diseases that could be related to volcanic ash exposure in public hospitals of the Province of Catania between October 20 and November 7, 2002. We compared the magnitude of differences in ED visits between the ash exposure period in 2002 and the same period of the previous year 2001. We observed a significant increase of ED visits for acute respiratory and cardiovascular diseases, and ocular disturbances during the ash exposure time period. There was a positive association between exposure to volcanic ash from the 2002 eruption of Mount Etna and acute health effects in the Catania residents. This study documents the need for public health preparedness and response initiatives to protect nearby populations from exposure to ash fall from future eruptions of Mount Etna.

Accelerated tooth eruption in children with diabetes mellitus.

PubMed

Lal, Shantanu; Cheng, Bin; Kaplan, Selma; Softness, Barney; Greenberg, Ellen; Goland, Robin S; Lalla, Evanthia; Lamster, Ira B

2008-05-01

The objective of this study was to evaluate tooth eruption in 6- to 14-year-old children with diabetes mellitus. Tooth eruption status was assessed for 270 children with diabetes and 320 control children without diabetes. Data on important diabetes-related variables were collected. Analyses were performed using logistic regression models. Children with diabetes exhibited accelerated tooth eruption in the late mixed dentition period (10-14 years of age) compared to healthy children. For both case patients and control subjects the odds of a tooth being in an advanced eruptive stage were significantly higher among girls than boys. There was also a trend associating gingival inflammation with expedited tooth eruption in both groups. No association was found between the odds of a tooth being in an advanced stage of eruption and hemoglobin A(1c) or duration of diabetes. Patients with higher body mass index percentile demonstrated statistically higher odds for accelerated tooth eruption, but the association was not clinically significant. Children with diabetes exhibit accelerated tooth eruption. Future studies need to ascertain the role of such aberrations in dental development and complications such as malocclusion, impaired oral hygiene, and periodontal disease. The standards of care for children with diabetes should include screening and referral programs aimed at oral health promotion and disease prevention.

Stress barriers controlling lateral migration of magma revealed by seismic tomography

PubMed Central

Martí, J.; Villaseñor, A.; Geyer, A.; López, C.; Tryggvason, A.

2017-01-01

Understanding how monogenetic volcanic systems work requires full comprehension of the local and regional stresses that govern magma migration inside them and why/how they seem to change from one eruption to another. During the 2011–2012 El Hierro eruption (Canary Islands) the characteristics of unrest, including a continuous change in the location of seismicity, made the location of the future vent unpredictable, so short term hazard assessment was highly imprecise. A 3D P-wave velocity model is obtained using arrival times of the earthquakes occurred during that pre-eruptive unrest and several latter post-eruptive seismic crises not related to further eruptions. This model reveals the rheological and structural complexity of the interior of El Hierro volcanic island. It shows a number of stress barriers corresponding to regional tectonic structures and blocked pathways from previous eruptions, which controlled ascent and lateral migration of magma and, together with the existence of N-S regional compression, reduced its options to find a suitable path to reach the surface and erupt. PMID:28084436

Solar filament material oscillations and drainage before eruption

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bi, Yi; Jiang, Yunchun; Yang, Jiayan

Both large-amplitude longitudinal (LAL) oscillations and material drainage in a solar filament are associated with the flow of material along the filament axis, often followed by an eruption. However, the relationship between these two motions and a subsequent eruption event is poorly understood. We analyze a filament eruption using EUV imaging data captured by the Atmospheric Imaging Array on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory and the Hα images from the Global Oscillation Network Group. Hours before the eruption, the filament was activated, with one of its legs undergoing a slow rising motion. The asymmetric activation inclined the filament relative tomore » the solar surface. After the active phase, LAL oscillations were observed in the inclined filament. The oscillation period increased slightly over time, which may suggest that the magnetic fields supporting the filament evolve to be flatter during the slow rising phase. After the oscillations, a significant amount of filament material was drained toward one filament endpoint, followed immediately by the violent eruption of the filament. The material drainage may further support the change in magnetic topology prior to the eruption. Moreover, we suggest that the filament material drainage could play a role in the transition from a slow to a fast rise of the erupting filament.« less

Formation and Eruption Process of a Filament in Active Region NOAA 12241

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Jincheng; Yan, Xiaoli; Qu, ZhongQuan

In order to better understand active-region filaments, we present an intensive study on the formation and eruption of a filament in active region NOAA 12241 during the period from 2014 December 18 to 19. Using observations from the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) vector magnetograms, we investigate the helicity injection rate, Lorentz force, and vertical electric current in the entire region associated with the filament. The helicity injection rate before eruption is found to be larger than that after eruption, while the vertical electric current undergoes an increase at first and then a gradual decrease, similar to what the magneticmore » flux undergoes. Meanwhile, we find that the right part of the filament is formed by magnetic reconnection between two bundles of magnetic field lines while the left part originated from shearing motion. The interaction of the two parts causes the eruption of this filament. The mean horizontal magnetic fields in the vicinity of the magnetic polarity inversion line (PIL) enhance rapidly during the eruption. Another striking phenomenon, where the vertical electric currents close to the magnetic PIL suddenly expand toward two sides during the eruption, is found. We propose that this fascinating feature is associated with the release of energy during the eruption.« less

Analysis of five years of continuous GPS recording at Piton de La Fournaise (R

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peltier, A.; Staudacher, T.; Boissier, P.; Lauret, F.; Kowalski, P.

2009-04-01

A network of twelve permanent GPS stations has been implemented since 2004 at Piton de La Fournaise (hot spot basaltic volcano of La Réunion Island, Indian Ocean) to follow the ground deformation associated with its high eruptive activity. During the period covered by the continuous GPS recording, 12 eruptions occurred. The compilation of the data recorded between 2004 and 2008 allows us to define two time scales of ground deformation systematically associated with this eruptive activity: (1) Large short-term displacements, reaching up to 14 mm/min, monitored a few min to hours prior each eruption during magma injections toward the surface (co-eruptive deformation); (2) But also, small long-term ground displacements recorded during inter-eruptive periods. Between 2 weeks and 5 months before each eruption a slight summit inflation occurs (0.4-0.7 mm/day); whereas a post-eruptive summit deflation lasting 1 to 3 months is only recorded after the largest distal eruptions (0.3 - 1.3 mm/day). These two time scales ground deformation precursors allowed us to forecast all eruptions up to five months in advance. And the follow up of the large short-term displacement in real-time allowed us to evaluated the approximate location of the eruptive fissure a few min to hours before its opening (i.e. inside the summit crater, northern flank or southern flank). The large short-term ground displacements have been attributed to the dyke propagation toward the surface, whereas the long-term ground displacements, which were also recorded by the extensometer network since 2000, have been attributed to a continuous over pressurization of the shallow magma reservoir located at about 2300m depth. The continuous over-pressurization of the shallow magma reservoir would explain the high eruptive activity observed since 1998; 27 eruptions in 10 years.

Pre-, Syn- and Post Eruptive Seismicity of the 2011 Eruption of Nabro Volcano, Eritrea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goitom, Berhe; Hammond, James; Kendall, Michael; Nowacky, Andy; Keir, Derek; Oppenheimer, Clive; Ogubazghi, Ghebrebrhan; Ayele, Atalay; Ibrahim, Said; Jacques, Eric

2014-05-01

Nabro volcano, located in south-east Eritrea, East Africa, lies at the eastern margin of the Afar Rift and the Danakil Depression. Its tectonic behaviour is controlled by the divergence of the Arabian, Nubian and Somali plates. Nabro volcano was thought to be seismically quiet until it erupted in June 2011 with limited warning. The volcano erupted on June 12, 2011 around 20:32 UTC, following a series of earthquakes on that day that reached a maximum magnitude of 5.8. It is the first recorded eruption of Nabro volcano and only the second in Eritrea, following the Dubbi eruption in 1861. A lava flow emerged from the caldera and travelled about 20 km from the vent and buried settlements in the area. At the time of this eruption there was no seismic network in Eritrea, and hence the volcano was not monitored. In this study we use ten Ethiopian, one Yemeni and one Djibouti stations to investigate the seismicity of the area before, during and after the eruption. Four Eritrean seismic stations deployed in June 2011, four days after the eruption, are also included in the dataset. Travel time picks supplied by colleagues from Djibouti were also incorporated into the dataset. Our analysis covers roughly three months before and after the eruption and shows that Nabro was seismically quiet before the eruption (nine events), with the exception of one major earthquake (4.8 magnitude) that occurred on March 31, 2011. In contrast, the region shows continued seismic activity after the eruption (92 events). During the eruption seismicity levels are high (123 events), with two days particularly active, June 12 and June 17 with 85 and 28 discrete events, respectively. Maximum magnitudes of 5.8 and 5.9 were recorded on these two days. The two days of increased seismicity are consistent with satellite observations of the eruption which show two distinct phases of the eruption. The period between these two phases was dominated by volcanic tremor. The tremor signal lasted for almost one month following the initiation of the eruption. In summary, we have shown that the volcano was relatively quiet before eruption but continued to be seismically active for an extended period of time afterwards.

2011 volcanic activity in Alaska: summary of events and response of the Alaska Volcano Observatory

USGS Publications Warehouse

McGimsey, Robert G.; Maharrey, J. Zebulon; Neal, Christina A.

2014-01-01

The Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO) responded to eruptions, possible eruptions, and volcanic unrest at or near three separate volcanic centers in Alaska during 2011. The year was highlighted by the unrest and eruption of Cleveland Volcano in the central Aleutian Islands. AVO annual summaries no longer report on activity at Russian volcanoes.

Chronology and References of Volcanic Eruptions and Selected Unrest in the United States, 1980-2008

USGS Publications Warehouse

Diefenbach, Angela K.; Guffanti, Marianne; Ewert, John W.

2009-01-01

The United States ranks as one of the top countries in the world in the number of young, active volcanoes within its borders. The United States, including the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands, is home to approximately 170 geologically active (age <10,000 years) volcanoes. As our review of the record shows, 30 of these volcanoes have erupted since 1980, many repeatedly. In addition to producing eruptions, many U.S. volcanoes exhibit periods of anomalous activity, unrest, that do not culminate in eruptions. Monitoring volcanic activity in the United States is the responsibility of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Volcano Hazards Program (VHP) and is accomplished with academic, Federal, and State partners. The VHP supports five Volcano Observatories - the Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO), Cascades Volcano Observatory (CVO), Yellowstone Volcano Observatory (YVO), Long Valley Observatory (LVO), and Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO). With the exception of HVO, which was established in 1912, the U.S. Volcano Observatories have been established in the past 27 years in response to specific volcanic eruptions or sustained levels of unrest. As understanding of volcanic activity and hazards has grown over the years, so have the extent and types of monitoring networks and techniques available to detect early signs of anomalous volcanic behavior. This increased capability is providing us with a more accurate gauge of volcanic activity in the United States. The purpose of this report is to (1) document the range of volcanic activity that U.S. Volcano Observatories have dealt with, beginning with the 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens, (2) describe some overall characteristics of the activity, and (3) serve as a quick reference to pertinent published literature on the eruptions and unrest documented in this report.

Assessing the impact of a future volcanic eruption on decadal predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Illing, Sebastian; Kadow, Christopher; Pohlmann, Holger; Timmreck, Claudia

2018-06-01

The likelihood of a large volcanic eruption in the future provides the largest uncertainty concerning the evolution of the climate system on the timescale of a few years, but also an excellent opportunity to learn about the behavior of the climate system, and our models thereof. So the following question emerges: how predictable is the response of the climate system to future eruptions? By this we mean to what extent will the volcanic perturbation affect decadal climate predictions and how does the pre-eruption climate state influence the impact of the volcanic signal on the predictions? To address these questions, we performed decadal forecasts with the MiKlip prediction system, which is based on the MPI-ESM, in the low-resolution configuration for the initialization years 2012 and 2014, which differ in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) phase. Each forecast contains an artificial Pinatubo-like eruption starting in June of the first prediction year and consists of 10 ensemble members. For the construction of the aerosol radiative forcing, we used the global aerosol model ECHAM5-HAM in a version adapted for volcanic eruptions. We investigate the response of different climate variables, including near-surface air temperature, precipitation, frost days, and sea ice area fraction. Our results show that the average global cooling response over 4 years of about 0.2 K and the precipitation decrease of about 0.025 mm day-1 is relatively robust throughout the different experiments and seemingly independent of the initialization state. However, on a regional scale, we find substantial differences between the initializations. The cooling effect in the North Atlantic and Europe lasts longer and the Arctic sea ice increase is stronger in the simulations initialized in 2014. In contrast, the forecast initialized in 2012 with a negative PDO shows a prolonged cooling in the North Pacific basin.

A comparison study of a solar active-region eruptive filament and a neighboring non-eruptive filament

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Chao-Wei; Wu, Shi-Tsan; Feng, Xue-Shang; Hu, Qiang

2016-01-01

Solar active region (AR) 11283 is a very magnetically complex region and it has produced many eruptions. However, there exists a non-eruptive filament in the plage region just next to an eruptive one in the AR, which gives us an opportunity to perform a comparison analysis of these two filaments. The coronal magnetic field extrapolated using our CESE-MHD-NLFFF code reveals that two magnetic flux ropes (MFRs) exist in the same extrapolation box supporting these two filaments, respectively. Analysis of the magnetic field shows that the eruptive MFR contains a bald-patch separatrix surface (BPSS) cospatial very well with a pre-eruptive EUV sigmoid, which is consistent with the BPSS model for coronal sigmoids. The magnetic dips of the non-eruptive MFRs match Hα observation of the non-eruptive filament strikingly well, which strongly supports the MFR-dip model for filaments. Compared with the non-eruptive MFR/filament (with a length of about 200 Mm), the eruptive MFR/filament is much smaller (with a length of about 20 Mm), but it contains most of the magnetic free energy in the extrapolation box and holds a much higher free energy density than the non-eruptive one. Both the MFRs are weakly twisted and cannot trigger kink instability. The AR eruptive MFR is unstable because its axis reaches above a critical height for torus instability, at which the overlying closed arcades can no longer confine the MFR stably. On the contrary, the quiescent MFR is very firmly held by its overlying field, as its axis apex is far below the torus-instability threshold height. Overall, this comparison investigation supports that an MFR can exist prior to eruption and the ideal MHD instability can trigger an MFR eruption.

Atmospheric control on ground and space based early warning system for hazard linked to ash injection into the atmosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caudron, Corentin; Taisne, Benoit; Whelley, Patrick; Garces, Milton; Le Pichon, Alexis

2014-05-01

Violent volcanic eruptions are common in the Southeast Asia which is bordered by active subduction zones with hundreds of active volcanoes. The physical conditions at the eruptive vent are difficult to estimate, especially when there are only a few sensors distributed around the volcano. New methods are therefore required to tackle this problem. Among them, satellite imagery and infrasound may rapidly provide information on strong eruptions triggered at volcanoes which are not closely monitored by on-site instruments. The deployment of an infrasonic array located at Singapore will increase the detection capability of the existing IMS network. In addition, the location of Singapore with respect to those volcanoes makes it the perfect site to identify erupting blasts based on the wavefront characteristics of the recorded signal. There are ~750 active or potentially active volcanoes within 4000 kilometers of Singapore. They have been combined into 23 volcanic zones that have clear azimuth with respect to Singapore. Each of those zones has been assessed for probabilities of eruptive styles, from moderate (Volcanic Explosivity Index of 3) to cataclysmic (VEI 8) based on remote morphologic analysis. Ash dispersal models have been run using wind velocity profiles from 2010 to 2012 and hypothetical eruption scenarios for a range of eruption explosivities. Results can be used to estimate the likelihood of volcanic ash at any location in SE Asia. Seasonal changes in atmospheric conditions will strongly affect the potential to detect small volcanic eruptions with infrasound and clouds can hide eruption plumes from satellites. We use the average cloud cover for each zone to estimate the probability of eruption detection from space, and atmospheric models to estimate the probability of eruption detection with infrasound. Using remote sensing in conjunction with infrasound improves detection capabilities as each method is capable of detecting eruptions when the other is 'blind' or 'defened' by adverse atmospheric conditions. According to its location, each volcanic zone will be associated with a threshold value (minimum VEI detectable) depending on the seasonality of the wind velocity profile in the region and the cloud cover.

Numerical simulation of tsunami generation by cold volcanic mass flows at Augustine Volcano, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Waythomas, C.F.; Watts, P.; Walder, J.S.

2006-01-01

Many of the world's active volcanoes are situated on or near coastlines. During eruptions, diverse geophysical mass flows, including pyroclastic flows, debris avalanches, and lahars, can deliver large volumes of unconsolidated debris to the ocean in a short period of time and thereby generate tsunamis. Deposits of both hot and cold volcanic mass flows produced by eruptions of Aleutian arc volcanoes are exposed at many locations along the coastlines of the Bering Sea, North Pacific Ocean, and Cook Inlet, indicating that the flows entered the sea and in some cases may have initiated tsunamis. We evaluate the process of tsunami generation by cold granular subaerial volcanic mass flows using examples from Augustine Volcano in southern Cook Inlet. Augustine Volcano is the most historically active volcano in the Cook Inlet region, and future eruptions, should they lead to debris-avalanche formation and tsunami generation, could be hazardous to some coastal areas. Geological investigations at Augustine Volcano suggest that as many as 12-14 debris avalanches have reached the sea in the last 2000 years, and a debris avalanche emplaced during an A.D. 1883 eruption may have initiated a tsunami that was observed about 80 km east of the volcano at the village of English Bay (Nanwalek) on the coast of the southern Kenai Peninsula. Numerical simulation of mass-flow motion, tsunami generation, propagation, and inundation for Augustine Volcano indicate only modest wave generation by volcanic mass flows and localized wave effects. However, for east-directed mass flows entering Cook Inlet, tsunamis are capable of reaching the more populated coastlines of the southwestern Kenai Peninsula, where maximum water amplitudes of several meters are possible.

Soil gas radon and volcanic activity at El Hierro (Canary Islands) before and after the 2011-2012 submarine eruption

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barrancos, J.; Padilla, G.; Hernandez Perez, P. A.; Padron, E.; Perez, N.; Melian Rodriguez, G.; Nolasco, D.; Dionis, S.; Rodriguez, F.; Calvo, D.; Hernandez, I.

2012-12-01

El Hierro is the youngest and southernmost island of the Canarian archipelago and represents the summit of a volcanic shield elevating from the surrounding seafloor at depth of 4000 m to up to 1501 m above sea level. The island is believed to be near the present hotspot location in the Canaries with the oldest subaerial rocks dated at 1.12 Ma. The subaerial parts of the El Hierro rift zones (NE, NW and S Ridges) are characterized by tightly aligned dyke complexes with clusters of cinder cones as their surface expressions. Since July 16, 2011, an anomalous seismicity at El Hierro Island was recorded by IGN seismic network. Volcanic tremor started at 05:15 hours on October 10, followed on the afternoon of October 12 by a green discolouration of seawater, strong bubbling and degassing indicating the initial stage of submarine volcanic eruption at approximately 2 km off the coast of La Restinga, El Hierro. Soil gas 222Rn and 220Rn activities were continuously measured during the period of the recent volcanic unrest occurred at El Hierro, at two different geochemical stations, HIE02 and HIE03. Significant increases in soil 222Rn activity and 222Rn/220Rn ratio from the soil were observed at both stations prior the submarine eruption off the coast of El Hierro, showing the highest increases before the eruption onset and the occurrence of the strongest seismic event (M=4.6). A statistical analysis showed that the long-term trend of the filtered data corresponded closely to the seismic energy released during the volcanic unrest. The observed increases of 222Rn are related to the rock fracturing processes (seismic activity) and the magmatic CO2 outflow increase, as observed in HIE03 station. Under these results, we find that continuous soil radon studies are important for evaluating the volcanic activity of El Hierro and they demonstrate the potential of applying continuous monitoring of soil radon to improve and optimize the detection of early warning signals of future volcanic unrest episodes at El Hierro Island.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ellis, J S; Lefevre, R J; Pace, J C

Ash clouds generated by erupting volcanoes represent a serious hazard to military and civil aviation. The dispersion modeling system of the Atmospheric Release Advisory Capability (ARAC) has been used to model the cloud resulting from the eruption of the Soufriere Hills volcano, Montserrat in December 1997. A clone of parts of the ARAC system, now being installed at the Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA), will enable AFWA to provide hazard guidance to military operations in the vicinity of erupting volcanoes. This paper presents ARAC's modeling results and discusses potential application of similar calculations for AFWA support during future events.

Volcano and earthquake hazards in the Crater Lake region, Oregon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bacon, Charles R.; Mastin, Larry G.; Scott, Kevin M.; Nathenson, Manuel

1997-01-01

Crater Lake lies in a basin, or caldera, formed by collapse of the Cascade volcano known as Mount Mazama during a violent, climactic eruption about 7,700 years ago. This event dramatically changed the character of the volcano so that many potential types of future events have no precedent there. This potentially active volcanic center is contained within Crater Lake National Park, visited by 500,000 people per year, and is adjacent to the main transportation corridor east of the Cascade Range. Because a lake is now present within the most likely site of future volcanic activity, many of the hazards at Crater Lake are different from those at most other Cascade volcanoes. Also significant are many faults near Crater Lake that clearly have been active in the recent past. These faults, and historic seismicity, indicate that damaging earthquakes can occur there in the future. This report describes the various types of volcano and earthquake hazards in the Crater Lake area, estimates of the likelihood of future events, recommendations for mitigation, and a map of hazard zones. The main conclusions are summarized below.

Textural constraints on the dynamics of the 2000 Miyakejima eruption

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garozzo, Ileana; Romano, Claudia; Giordano, Guido; Geshi, Nobuo; Vona, Alessandro

2016-04-01

Miyakejima Volcano is a basaltic-andesite stratovolcano active from ~10.000 years, located on the north of the Izu-Bonin arc. During the last 600 years the volcano has been characterized mainly by flank fissure activity, with explosive phreatomagmatic eruptions on the coastal areas. In the last century, the activity became more frequent and regular with intervals of 20 to 70 years (1940, 1962, 1983 and 2000). The last activity started on 27 June 2000, with a minor submarine eruption on the west coast of the volcano, and proceeded with six major summit eruptions from July 8 to August 29. The eruptions led to the formation of a collapse caldera ~1.6 km across. The total erupted tephra represents only 1.7% in volume of the caldera, the high fragmentation of magma produced mainly fine-grained volcanic ash. In order to improve the understanding on the triggering and dynamics of this explosive eruption, we carried out a detailed investigation of the erupted materials with particular attention to the textural features of juvenile pyroclasts (Vesicle and Crystal Size Distributions). The stratigraphic record can be divided into six fall units, corresponding to the six summit eruptions, although juvenile materials were identified only in 4 units (unit 2, 4, 5, 6). We selected about 100 juvenile grains sampled from the bottom to the top of each level, to be analyzed by scanning electron microscopy. The study of juvenile morphological features allowed us to recognize the existence of three characteristic morphotypes, showing marked differences in their external morphologies and internal textures (from poorly to highly crystallized and vesiculated clasts). The distribution of these morphotypes is non-homogeneous along the eruptive sequence indicating changes of dynamics during magma ascent. Juveniles do not show features inherited from the interaction with external water. Vesicle Volume Distributions of the selected ash grains show that the three types of pyroclasts experienced different nucleation and growth processes. Also the Vesicles Number Densities (VNDs) vary of about one order of magnitude in the different populations (from 107 to 108 cm-3), with values comparable with those commonly related to sub-Plinian and Plinian eruptions. Data from the CSD analysis show perfect agreement with the measured VNDs (crystal population densities increasing with VNDs), suggesting a link between the degassing history and the syn-eruptive crystallization. The results of the textural analysis are used to produce a conduit model for the 2000 Miyakejima eruption. Textural analysis and modeling data are presented to reconstruct the eruptive dynamics leading to this high - energetic eruption.

Electrification processes and lightning generation in volcanic plumes—observations from recent eruptions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van Eaton, A. R.; Smith, C. M.; Schneider, D. J.

2017-12-01

Lightning in volcanic plumes provides a promising way to monitor ash-producing eruptions and investigate their dynamics. Among the many methods of lightning detection are global networks of sensors that detect electromagnetic radiation in the very low frequency band (3-30 kHz), including the World Wide Lightning Location Network. These radio waves propagate thousands of kilometers at the speed of light, providing an opportunity for rapid detection of explosive volcanism anywhere in the world. Lightning is particularly valuable as a near real-time indicator of ash-rich plumes that are hazardous to aviation. Yet many fundamental questions remain. Under what conditions does electrical activity in volcanic plumes become powerful, detectable lightning? And conversely, can we use lightning to illuminate eruption processes and hazards? This study highlights recent observations from the eruptions of Redoubt (Alaska, 2009), Kelud (Indonesia, 2014), Calbuco (Chile, 2015), and Bogoslof (Alaska, 2017) to examine volcanic lighting from a range of eruption styles (Surtseyan to Plinian) and mass eruption rates from 10^5 to 10^8 kg/s. It is clear that lightning stroke-rates do not scale in a simple way with mass eruption rate or plume height across different eruptions. However, relative changes in electrical activity through individual eruptions relate to changes in eruptive intensity, ice content, and volcanic plume processes (fall vs. flow).

MINIFILAMENT ERUPTIONS THAT DRIVE CORONAL JETS IN A SOLAR ACTIVE REGION

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sterling, Alphonse C.; Moore, Ronald L.; Falconer, David A.

We present observations of eruptive events in an active region adjacent to an on-disk coronal hole on 2012 June 30, primarily using data from the Solar Dynamics Observatory ( SDO )/Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA), SDO /Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI), and STEREO - B . One eruption is of a large-scale (∼100″) filament that is typical of other eruptions, showing slow-rise onset followed by a faster-rise motion starting as flare emissions begin. It also shows an “EUV crinkle” emission pattern, resulting from magnetic reconnections between the exploding filament-carrying field and surrounding field. Many EUV jets, some of which are surges,more » sprays and/or X-ray jets, also occur in localized areas of the active region. We examine in detail two relatively energetic ones, accompanied by GOES M1 and C1 flares, and a weaker one without a GOES signature. All three jets resulted from small-scale (∼20″) filament eruptions consistent with a slow rise followed by a fast rise occurring with flare-like jet-bright-point brightenings. The two more-energetic jets showed crinkle patters, but the third jet did not, perhaps due to its weakness. Thus all three jets were consistent with formation via erupting minifilaments, analogous to large-scale filament eruptions and to X-ray jets in polar coronal holes. Several other energetic jets occurred in a nearby portion of the active region; while their behavior was also consistent with their source being minifilament eruptions, we could not confirm this because their onsets were hidden from our view. Magnetic flux cancelation and emergence are candidates for having triggered the minifilament eruptions.« less

PRE-FLARE CORONAL JET AND EVOLUTIONARY PHASES OF A SOLAR ERUPTIVE PROMINENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE M1.8 FLARE: SDO AND RHESSI OBSERVATIONS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Joshi, Bhuwan; Kushwaha, Upendra; Veronig, Astrid M.

We investigate the triggering, activation, and ejection of a solar eruptive prominence that occurred in a multi-polar flux system of active region NOAA 11548 on 2012 August 18 by analyzing data from the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory , the Reuven Ramaty High Energy Solar Spectroscopic Imager , and the Extreme Ultraviolet Imager/Sun Earth Connection Coronal and Heliospheric Investigation on board the Solar Terrestrial Relation Observatory . Prior to the prominence activation, we observed striking coronal activities in the form of a blowout jet, which is associated with the rapid eruption of a cool flux rope. Furthermore, themore » jet-associated flux rope eruption underwent splitting and rotation during its outward expansion. These coronal activities are followed by the prominence activation during which it slowly rises with a speed of ∼12 km s{sup −1} while the region below the prominence emits gradually varying EUV and thermal X-ray emissions. From these observations, we propose that the prominence eruption is a complex, multi-step phenomenon in which a combination of internal (tether-cutting reconnection) and external (i.e., pre-eruption coronal activities) processes are involved. The prominence underwent catastrophic loss of equilibrium with the onset of the impulsive phase of an M1.8 flare, suggesting large-scale energy release by coronal magnetic reconnection. We obtained signatures of particle acceleration in the form of power-law spectra with hard electron spectral index ( δ  ∼ 3) and strong HXR footpoint sources. During the impulsive phase, a hot EUV plasmoid was observed below the apex of the erupting prominence that ejected in the direction of the prominence with a speed of ∼177 km s{sup −1}. The temporal, spatial, and kinematic correlations between the erupting prominence and the plasmoid imply that the magnetic reconnection supported the fast ejection of prominence in the lower corona.« less

Seismic constraints on caldera dynamics from the 2015 Axial Seamount eruption.

PubMed

Wilcock, William S D; Tolstoy, Maya; Waldhauser, Felix; Garcia, Charles; Tan, Yen Joe; Bohnenstiehl, DelWayne R; Caplan-Auerbach, Jacqueline; Dziak, Robert P; Arnulf, Adrien F; Mann, M Everett

2016-12-16

Seismic observations in volcanically active calderas are challenging. A new cabled observatory atop Axial Seamount on the Juan de Fuca ridge allows unprecedented real-time monitoring of a submarine caldera. Beginning on 24 April 2015, the seismic network captured an eruption that culminated in explosive acoustic signals where lava erupted on the seafloor. Extensive seismic activity preceding the eruption shows that inflation is accommodated by the reactivation of an outward-dipping caldera ring fault, with strong tidal triggering indicating a critically stressed system. The ring fault accommodated deflation during the eruption and provided a pathway for a dike that propagated south and north beneath the caldera's east wall. Once north of the caldera, the eruption stepped westward, and a dike propagated along the extensional north rift. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Timing of water plume eruptions on Enceladus explained by interior viscosity structure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Běhounková, Marie; Tobie, Gabriel; Čadek, Ondřej; Choblet, Gaël; Porco, Carolyn; Nimmo, Francis

2015-08-01

At the south pole of Saturn's icy moon Enceladus, eruptions of water vapour and ice emanate from warm tectonic ridges. Observations in the infrared and visible spectra have shown an orbital modulation of the plume brightness, which suggests that the eruption activity is influenced by tidal forces. However, the observed activity seems to be delayed by several hours with respect to predictions based on simple tidal models. Here we simulate the viscoelastic tidal response of Enceladus with a full three-dimensional numerical model and show that the delay in eruption activity may be a natural consequence of the viscosity structure in the south-polar region and the size of the putative subsurface ocean. By systematically comparing simulations of variations in normal stress along faults with plume brightness data, we show that the observed activity is reproduced for two classes of interior models with contrasting thermal histories: a low-viscosity convective region above a polar sea extending about 45°-60° from the south pole at a depth below the surface as small as 30 km, or a convecting ice shell of 60-70 km in thickness above a global ocean. Our analysis further shows that the eruption activity is controlled by the average normal stress applied across the cracks, thus providing a constraint on the eruption mechanism.

Earth Observation taken by the Expedition 33 crew

NASA Image and Video Library

2012-11-09

ISS033-E-019822 (9 Nov. 2012) --- An eruption plume from the Karymsky volcano on the Kamchatka Peninsula in the Russian Federation is visible in this image photographed by an Expedition 33 crew member on the International Space Station. The Karymsky stratovolcano stands 1,536 meters above sea level, with most eruptions and occasional lava flows originating from the summit. Karymsky is the most active of Kamchatka’s eastern volcanoes, with almost constant (on a geologic time scale) volcanism occurring since at least the late 18th century when the historical record for the region begins. In light of the high levels of volcanic activity on the Kamchatka Peninsula, the Kamchatka Volcanic Eruption Response Team (KVERT) monitors the activity levels of several volcanoes and issues updates including aviation alerts and webcams. KVERT reported moderate seismic activity at Karymsky during 2-9 Nov. 2012; such activity can indicate movement of magma beneath or within a volcanic structure and can indicate that an eruption is imminent. The Tokyo Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (VAAC) subsequently reported an explosive eruption at Karymsky on Nov. 9, 2012 at 22:15 GMT. This photograph of the resulting ash plume was taken approximately one hour and 35 minutes after the eruption began. The plume extends from the summit of Karymsky (bottom center) to the southeast, with brown ash deposits darkening the snow cover below the plume. The Akademia Nauk caldera – now filled with water to form the present-day Karymsky Lake - is located to the south of Karymsky volcano. Calderas are formed by explosive eruption and emptying of a volcano’s magma chamber – leading to collapse of the structure to form a large crater-like depression. Akademia Nauk last erupted in 1996.

Assessing volcanic risk in regions with low frequency eruptions: the Laacher See case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riede, Felix; Blong, Russell

2017-04-01

Approximately 13,000 years ago, the Laacher See volcano located in present-day western Germany (East Eifel volcanic field, Rhenish Shield) erupted cataclysmically and, to-date, for the last time. In addition to the near-vent destruction wrought by pyroclastic flows and massive tephra deposition, a swath of airfall ash covered Europe from the Alps to the Baltic. Mofettes in the caldera lake as well as tomography studies clearly reveal the presence of a still-active hot spot in the Eifel suggestive of the possibility of renewed activity. Previous studies have focused on the near-vent situation and on unraveling the eruption sequence. Archive legacy data harvested from a variety of disciplinary and often obscure sources (palynology, pedology, archaeology, geological grey literature) now provide new insights into the medial, distal and ultra-distal distribution of Laacher See fallout. This tephra-fall distribution and its utility as a chronostratigraphic marker at archaeological sites allow a detailed reconstruction of contemporaneous human impacts. At the same time, tephra samples collected from sites across northern Europe also reveal the causal contributions of different hazard phenomena (dental abrasion, vegetation impacts, health hazards). Given the high density of key infrastructure installations and of population in the region, risk calculations using the recently proposed Volcanic Risk Coefficient (VRC) place the Laacher See volcano on par with many more active and routinely monitored volcanoes (e.g. Teide, Ischia) - despite the Laacher See's long repose period. Indeed, the lack of prior exposure of Western European populations, coupled with the large number of countries likely to be affected by any future eruption would further aggravate any given impact. The data extant now could be used to construct robust Realistic Disaster Scenarios, and to improve outreach efforts aimed at raising awareness of this major volcano in the heart of Europe.

Detecting and Characterizing Repeating Earthquake Sequences During Volcanic Eruptions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tepp, G.; Haney, M. M.; Wech, A.

2017-12-01

A major challenge in volcano seismology is forecasting eruptions. Repeating earthquake sequences often precede volcanic eruptions or lava dome activity, providing an opportunity for short-term eruption forecasting. Automatic detection of these sequences can lead to timely eruption notification and aid in continuous monitoring of volcanic systems. However, repeating earthquake sequences may also occur after eruptions or along with magma intrusions that do not immediately lead to an eruption. This additional challenge requires a better understanding of the processes involved in producing these sequences to distinguish those that are precursory. Calculation of the inverse moment rate and concepts from the material failure forecast method can lead to such insights. The temporal evolution of the inverse moment rate is observed to differ for precursory and non-precursory sequences, and multiple earthquake sequences may occur concurrently. These observations suggest that sequences may occur in different locations or through different processes. We developed an automated repeating earthquake sequence detector and near real-time alarm to send alerts when an in-progress sequence is identified. Near real-time inverse moment rate measurements can further improve our ability to forecast eruptions by allowing for characterization of sequences. We apply the detector to eruptions of two Alaskan volcanoes: Bogoslof in 2016-2017 and Redoubt Volcano in 2009. The Bogoslof eruption produced almost 40 repeating earthquake sequences between its start in mid-December 2016 and early June 2017, 21 of which preceded an explosive eruption, and 2 sequences in the months before eruptive activity. Three of the sequences occurred after the implementation of the alarm in late March 2017 and successfully triggered alerts. The nearest seismometers to Bogoslof are over 45 km away, requiring a detector that can work with few stations and a relatively low signal-to-noise ratio. During the Redoubt eruption, earthquake sequences were observed in the months leading up to the eruptive activity beginning in March 2009 as well as immediately preceding 7 of the 19 explosive events. In contrast to Bogoslof, Redoubt has a local monitoring network which allows for better detection and more detailed analysis of the repeating earthquake sequences.

The A.D. 1835 eruption of Volcán Cosigüina, Nicaragua: A guide for assessing local volcanic hazards

USGS Publications Warehouse

Scott, William E.; Gardner, Cynthia A.; Devoli, Graziella; Alvarez, Antonio

2006-01-01

The January 1835 eruption of Volcán Cosigüina in northwestern Nicaragua was one of the largest and most explosive in Central America since Spanish colonization. We report on the results of reconnaissance stratigraphic studies and laboratory work aimed at better defining the distribution and character of deposits emplaced by the eruption as a means of developing a preliminary hazards assessment for future eruptions. On the lower flanks of the volcano, a basal tephra-fall deposit comprises either ash and fine lithic lapilli or, locally, dacitic pumice. An overlying tephra-fall deposit forms an extensive blanket of brown to gray andesitic scoria that is 35–60 cm thick at 5–10 km from the summit-caldera rim, except southwest of the volcano, where it is considerably thinner. The scoria fall produced the most voluminous deposit of the eruption and underlies pyroclastic-surge and -flow deposits that chiefly comprise gray andesitic scoria. In northern and southeastern sectors of the volcano, these flowage deposits form broad fans and valley fills that locally reach the Gulf of Fonseca. An arcuate ridge 2 km west of the caldera rim and a low ridge east of the caldera deflected pyroclastic flows northward and southeastward. Pyroclastic flows did not reach the lower west and southwest flanks, which instead received thick, fine-grained, accretionary-lapilli–rich ashfall deposits that probably derived chiefly from ash clouds elutriated from pyroclastic flows. We estimate the total bulk volume of erupted deposits to be ∼6 km3. Following the eruption, lahars inundated large portions of the lower flanks, and erosion of deposits and creation of new channels triggered rapid alluviation. Pre-1835 eruptions are poorly dated; however, scoria-fall, pyroclastic-flow, and lahar deposits record a penultimate eruption of smaller magnitude than that of 1835. It occurred a few centuries earlier—perhaps in the fifteenth century. An undated sequence of thick tephra-fall deposits on the west flank of the volcano records tens of eruptions, some of which were greater in magnitude than that of 1835. Weathering evidence suggests this sequence is at least several thousand years old. The wide extent of pyroclastic flows and thick tephra fall during 1835, the greater magnitude of some previous Holocene eruptions, and the location of Cosigüina on a peninsula limit the options to reduce risk during future unrest and eruption.

Controls on lava lake level at Halema`uma`u Crater, Kilauea Volcano

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Patrick, M. R.; Orr, T. R.

2013-12-01

Lava level is a fundamental measure of lava lake activity, but very little continuous long-term data exist worldwide to explore this aspect of lava lake behavior. The ongoing summit eruption at Kilauea Volcano began in 2008 and is characterized by an active lava lake within the eruptive vent. Lava level has been measured nearly continuously at Kilauea for several years using a combination of webcam images, laser rangefinder, and terrestrial LIDAR. Fluctuations in lava level have been a common aspect of the eruption and occur over several timescales. At the shortest timescale, the lava lake level can change over seconds to hours owing to two observed shallow gas-related processes. First, gas pistoning is common and is driven by episodic gas accumulation and release from the surface of the lava lake, causing the lava level to rise and fall by up to 20 m. Second, rockfalls into the lake trigger abrupt gas release, and lava level may drop as much as 10 m as a result. Over days, cyclic changes in lava level closely track cycles of deflation-inflation (DI) deformation events at the summit, leading to level changes up to 50 m. Rift zone intrusions have caused large (up to 140 m) drops in lava level over several days. On the timescale of weeks to months, the lava level follows the long-term inflation and deflation of the summit region, resulting in level changes up to 140 m. The remarkable correlation between lava level and deflation-inflation cycles, as well as the long-term deformation of the summit region, indicates that the lava lake acts as a reliable 'piezometer' (a measure of liquid pressure in the magma plumbing system); therefore, assessments of summit pressurization (and rift zone eruption potential) can now be carried out with the naked eye. The summit lava lake level is closely mirrored by the lava level within Pu`u `O`o crater, the vent area for the 30-year-long eruption on Kilauea's east rift zone, which is 20 km downrift of the summit. The coupling of these lava levels implies an efficient hydraulic connection between the summit and east rift zone vents. This connection has been indicated previously with geophysical data and is reinforced in a new quantitative manner with lava level data. Lastly, the current lava level at the summit is significantly lower than the mean level measured in the crater during continuous lava lake activity in the early 1900s. This is probably because the ongoing eruption at Pu`u `O`o 'taps' the magma supplied to the summit reservoir. Should the Pu`u `O`o eruption stop, the lava level at the summit would certainly rise in response. The precise correspondence between lava lake level and deformation of the summit implies that the lake level is a good indication of the pressure state of the magma reservoir. Tracking lava level over time may therefore provide an indication of the potential for future changes in eruptive activity. Such an observation has clear relevance for monitoring analogous open-vent basaltic volcanoes, especially where other measures of volcanic activity, like seismic or deformation measurements, may be lacking.

Volcanic-hazards assessments; past, present, and future

USGS Publications Warehouse

Crandell, D.R.

1991-01-01

Worldwide interest in volcanic-hazards assessments was greatly stimulated by the 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens, just 2 years after a hazards assessment of the volcano was published in U.S Geological Survey Bulletin 1383-C. Many climactic eruption on May 18, although the extent of the unprecedented and devastating lateral blast was not anticipated. 

Evidence of magma intrusion at Fourpeaked volcano, Alaska in 2006-2007 from a rapid-response seismic network and volcanic gases

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gardine, M.; West, M.; Werner, C.; Doukas, M.

2011-01-01

On September 17th, 2006, Fourpeaked volcano had a widely-observed phreatic eruption. At the time, Fourpeaked was an unmonitored volcano with no known Holocene activity, based on limited field work. Airborne gas sampling began within days of the eruption and a modest seismic network was installed in stages. Vigorous steaming continued for months; however, there were no further eruptions similar in scale to the September 17 event. This eruption was followed by several months of sustained seismicity punctuated by vigorous swarms, and SO2 emissions exceeding a thousand tons/day. Based on observations during and after the phreatic eruption, and assuming no recent pre-historical eruptive activity at Fourpeaked, we propose that the activity was caused by a minor injection of new magma at or near 5km depth beneath Fourpeaked, which remained active over several months as this magma equilibrated into the crust. By early 2007 declining seismicity and SO2 emission signaled the end of unrest. Because the Fourpeaked seismic network was installed in stages and the seismicity was punctuated by discrete swarms, we use Fourpeaked to illustrate quantitatively the efficacy and shortcomings of rapid response seismic networks for tracking volcanic earthquakes.

Why did we lose the 59 climbers in 2014 Ontake Volcano Eruption?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kimata, F.

2015-12-01

The first historical eruption at Ontake volcano, central Japan was in 1979, and it was a phreatic eruption. Until then, most Japanese volcanologists understood that Ontake is a dormant or an extinct volcano. Re-examination of active volcanoes was done after the eruption.After the first historical eruption in 1979, two small eruptions are repeated in 1991 and 2007. Through the three eruptions, nobody has got injured. The last eruption on September 27, 2014, we lost 65 people included missing. Because it was fine weekend and there were many climbers on the summit. The eruption was almost at lunchtime. Clearly, casualties by tsunamis are inhabitants along the coastlines, and casualties by eruption are visitors not inhabitants around the volcano. Basically, visitors have small information of Ontake volcano. After the accident, one mountain guide tells us that we never have long broken such as lunch around the summit, because an active creator is close, and they are afraid of the volcano gas accidents. All casualties by eruption were lost their lives in the area of 1.0 km distance from the 2014 creators. In 2004 Sumatra Earthquake Tsunami, we could not recognize the tsunami inspiration between the habitants in Banda Aceh, Sumatra. They have no idea of tsunami, and they called "Rising Sea" never"Tsunami". As the result, they lost many habitants close to the coast. In 2011 Tohoku Earthquake Tsunami, when habitants felt strong shaking close to coast, they understood the tsunami coming. 0ver 50 % habitants decide to evacuate from the coast. However, 20-30 % habitants believe in themselves no tsunami attacking for them. As a result we lost many habitants. Additionally, the tsunami height was higher than broadcasting one by JMA. According to the results of the questionnaire survey in climbers or bereaved families of the eruption day on Ontake volcano (Shinano Mainich Newspaper, 2015), 39 % of them were climbing no understand of "Ontake active volcano". Moreover, only 10-20 % of them was understanding some seismic activities in September. I met some bereaved family, and I understand the climbers are almost beginners. On the one hand, JMA, government and local governments never understand the experience of climbers of Ontake volcano. It was the main cause of the 2014 Ontake eruption accident.

Chronology and volcanology of the 1949 multi-vent rift-zone eruption on La Palma (Canary Islands)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klügel, A.; Schmincke, H.-U.; White, J. D. L.; Hoernle, K. A.

1999-12-01

The compositionally zoned San Juan eruption on La Palma emanated from three eruptive centers located along a north-south-trending rift zone in the south of the island. Seismic precursors began weakly in 1936 and became strong in March 1949, with their foci progressing from the north of the rift zone towards its south. This suggests that magma ascended beneath the old Taburiente shield volcano and moved southward along the rift. The eruption began on June 24, 1949, with phreatomagmatic activity at Duraznero crater on the ridgetop (ca. 1880 m above sea level), where five vents erupted tephritic lava along a 400-m-long fissure. On June 8, the Duraznero vents shut down abruptly, and the activity shifted to an off-rift fissure at Llano del Banco, located at ca. 550 m lower elevation and 3 km to the northwest. This eruptive center issued initially tephritic aa and later basanitic pahoehoe lava at high rates, producing a lava flow that entered the sea. Two days after basanite began to erupt at Llano del Banco, Hoyo Negro crater (ca. 1880 m asl), located 700 m north of Duraznero along the rift, opened on July 12 and produced ash and bombs of basanitic to phonotephritic composition in violent phreatomagmatic explosions ( White and Schmincke, 1999). Llano del Banco and Hoyo Negro were simultaneously active for 11 days and showed a co-variance of their eruption rates indicating a shallow hydraulic connection. On July 30, after 3 days of quiescence at all vents, Duraznero and Hoyo Negro became active again during a final eruptive phase. Duraznero issued basanitic lava at high rates for 12 h and produced a lava flow that descended towards the east coast. The lava contains ca. 1 vol.% crustal and mantle xenoliths consisting of 40% tholeiitic gabbros from the oceanic crust, 35% alkaline gabbros, and 20% ultramafic cumulates. The occurrence of xenoliths almost exclusively in the final lava is consistent with their origin by wall-rock collapse at depth near the end of the eruption. The volcanic evolution of the 1949 eruption is typical of La Palma eruptions generally. Considerable shallow magma migration prior to and during eruption is manifested by strong seismicity, intense faulting, and the almost unpredictable opening of specific vents which can be spaced three or more km apart.

Investigating volcanic hazard in Cape Verde Islands through geophysical monitoring: network description and first results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Faria, B.; Fonseca, J. F. B. D.

2014-02-01

We describe a new geophysical network deployed in the Cape Verde Archipelago for the assessment and monitoring of volcanic hazards as well as the first results from the network. Across the archipelago, the ages of volcanic activity range from ca. 20 Ma to present. In general, older islands are in the east and younger ones are in the west, but there is no clear age progression of eruptive activity as widely separated islands have erupted contemporaneously on geological timescales. The overall magmatic rate is low, and there are indications that eruptive activity is episodic, with intervals between episodes of intense activity ranging from 1 to 4 Ma. Although only Fogo Island has experienced eruptions (mainly effusive) in the historic period (last 550 yr), Brava and Santo Antão have experienced numerous geologically recent eruptions, including violent explosive eruptions, and show felt seismic activity and geothermal activity. Evidence for recent volcanism in the other islands is more limited and the emphasis has therefore been on monitoring of the three critical islands of Fogo, Brava and Santo Antão, where volcanic hazard levels are highest. Geophysical monitoring of all three islands is now in operation. The first results show that on Fogo, the seismic activity is dominated by hydrothermal events and volcano-tectonic events that may be related to settling of the edifice after the 1995 eruption; in Brava by volcano-tectonic events (mostly offshore), and in Santo Antão by volcano-tectonic events, medium-frequency events and harmonic tremor. Both in Brava and in Santo Antão, the recorded seismicity indicates that relatively shallow magmatic systems are present and causing deformation of the edifices that may include episodes of dike intrusion.

Active Deformation of Etna Volcano Combing IFSAR and GPS data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lundgren, Paul

1997-01-01

The surface deformation of an active volcano is an important indicator of its eruptive state and its hazard potential. Mount Etna volcano in Sicily is a very active volcano with well documented eruption episodes.

ROTATING MOTIONS AND MODELING OF THE ERUPTING SOLAR POLAR-CROWN PROMINENCE ON 2010 DECEMBER 6

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Su, Yingna; Van Ballegooijen, Adriaan, E-mail: ynsu@head.cfa.harvard.edu

2013-02-10

A large polar-crown prominence composed of different segments spanning nearly the entire solar disk erupted on 2010 December 6. Prior to the eruption, the filament in the active region part split into two layers: a lower layer and an elevated layer. The eruption occurs in several episodes. Around 14:12 UT, the lower layer of the active region filament breaks apart: One part ejects toward the west, while the other part ejects toward the east, which leads to the explosive eruption of the eastern quiescent filament. During the early rise phase, part of the quiescent filament sheet displays strong rolling motionmore » (observed by STEREO-B) in the clockwise direction (viewed from east to west) around the filament axis. This rolling motion appears to start from the border of the active region, then propagates toward the east. The Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) observes another type of rotating motion: In some other parts of the erupting quiescent prominence, the vertical threads turn horizontal, then turn upside down. The elevated active region filament does not erupt until 18:00 UT, when the erupting quiescent filament has already reached a very large height. We develop two simplified three-dimensional models that qualitatively reproduce the observed rolling and rotating motions. The prominence in the models is assumed to consist of a collection of discrete blobs that are tied to particular field lines of a helical flux rope. The observed rolling motion is reproduced by continuous twist injection into the flux rope in Model 1 from the active region side. Asymmetric reconnection induced by the asymmetric distribution of the magnetic fields on the two sides of the filament may cause the observed rolling motion. The rotating motion of the prominence threads observed by AIA is consistent with the removal of the field line dips in Model 2 from the top down during the eruption.« less

The longevity of lava dome eruptions: analysis of the global DomeHaz database

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ogburn, S. E.; Wolpert, R.; Calder, E.; Pallister, J. S.; Wright, H. M. N.

2015-12-01

The likely duration of ongoing volcanic eruptions is a topic of great interest to volcanologists, volcano observatories, and communities near volcanoes. Lava dome forming eruptions can last from days to centuries, and can produce violent, difficult-to-forecast activity including vulcanian to plinian explosions and pyroclastic density currents. Periods of active dome extrusion are often interspersed with periods of relative quiescence, during which extrusion may slow or pause altogether, but persistent volcanic unrest continues. This contribution focuses on the durations of these longer-term unrest phases, hereafter eruptions, that include periods of both lava extrusion and quiescence. A new database of lava dome eruptions, DomeHaz, provides characteristics of 228 eruptions at 127 volcanoes; for which 177 have duration information. We find that while 78% of dome-forming eruptions do not continue for more than 5 years, the remainder can be very long-lived. The probability distributions of eruption durations are shown to be heavy-tailed and vary by magma composition. For this reason, eruption durations are modeled with generalized Pareto distributions whose governing parameters depend on each volcano's composition and eruption duration to date. Bayesian predictive distributions and associated uncertainties are presented for the remaining duration of ongoing eruptions of specified composition and duration to date. Forecasts of such natural events will always have large uncertainties, but the ability to quantify such uncertainty is key to effective communication with stakeholders and to mitigation of hazards. Projections are made for the remaining eruption durations of ongoing eruptions, including those at Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat and Sinabung, Indonesia. This work provides a quantitative, transferable method and rationale on which to base long-term planning decisions for dome forming volcanoes of different compositions, regardless of the quality of an individual volcano's eruptive record, by leveraging a global database.

A novel approach to estimate the eruptive potential and probability in open conduit volcanoes

PubMed Central

De Gregorio, Sofia; Camarda, Marco

2016-01-01

In open conduit volcanoes, volatile-rich magma continuously enters into the feeding system nevertheless the eruptive activity occurs intermittently. From a practical perspective, the continuous steady input of magma in the feeding system is not able to produce eruptive events alone, but rather surplus of magma inputs are required to trigger the eruptive activity. The greater the amount of surplus of magma within the feeding system, the higher is the eruptive probability.Despite this observation, eruptive potential evaluations are commonly based on the regular magma supply, and in eruptive probability evaluations, generally any magma input has the same weight. Conversely, herein we present a novel approach based on the quantification of surplus of magma progressively intruded in the feeding system. To quantify the surplus of magma, we suggest to process temporal series of measurable parameters linked to the magma supply. We successfully performed a practical application on Mt Etna using the soil CO2 flux recorded over ten years. PMID:27456812

A novel approach to estimate the eruptive potential and probability in open conduit volcanoes.

PubMed

De Gregorio, Sofia; Camarda, Marco

2016-07-26

In open conduit volcanoes, volatile-rich magma continuously enters into the feeding system nevertheless the eruptive activity occurs intermittently. From a practical perspective, the continuous steady input of magma in the feeding system is not able to produce eruptive events alone, but rather surplus of magma inputs are required to trigger the eruptive activity. The greater the amount of surplus of magma within the feeding system, the higher is the eruptive probability.Despite this observation, eruptive potential evaluations are commonly based on the regular magma supply, and in eruptive probability evaluations, generally any magma input has the same weight. Conversely, herein we present a novel approach based on the quantification of surplus of magma progressively intruded in the feeding system. To quantify the surplus of magma, we suggest to process temporal series of measurable parameters linked to the magma supply. We successfully performed a practical application on Mt Etna using the soil CO2 flux recorded over ten years.

Iceland's Grímsvötn volcano erupts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Showstack, Randy

2011-05-01

About 13 months after Iceland's Eyjafjallajökull volcano began erupting on 14 April 2010, which led to extensive air traffic closures over Europe, Grímsvötn volcano in southeastern took its turn. Iceland's most active volcano, which last erupted in 2004 and lies largely beneath the Vatnajökull ice cap, began its eruption activity on 21 May, with the ash plume initially reaching about 20 kilometers in altitude, according to the Icelandic Meteorological Office. Volcanic ash from Grímsvötn has cancelled hundreds of airplane flights and prompted U.S. president Barack Obama to cut short his visit to Ireland. As Eos went to press, activity at the volcano was beginning to subside.

Spatially resolved SO2 flux emissions from Mt Etna.

PubMed

D'Aleo, R; Bitetto, M; Delle Donne, D; Tamburello, G; Battaglia, A; Coltelli, M; Patanè, D; Prestifilippo, M; Sciotto, M; Aiuppa, A

2016-07-28

We report on a systematic record of SO 2 flux emissions from individual vents of Etna volcano (Sicily), which we obtained using a permanent UV camera network. Observations were carried out in summer 2014, a period encompassing two eruptive episodes of the New South East Crater (NSEC) and a fissure-fed eruption in the upper Valle del Bove. We demonstrate that our vent-resolved SO 2 flux time series allow capturing shifts in activity from one vent to another and contribute to our understanding of Etna's shallow plumbing system structure. We find that the fissure eruption contributed ~50,000 t of SO 2 or ~30% of the SO 2 emitted by the volcano during the 5 July to 10 August eruptive interval. Activity from this eruptive vent gradually vanished on 10 August, marking a switch of degassing toward the NSEC. Onset of degassing at the NSEC was a precursory to explosive paroxysmal activity on 11-15 August.

Post-11,000-year volcanism at Medicine Lake Volcano, Cascade Range, northern California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Donnelly-Nolan, J. M.; Champion, D.E.; Miller, C.D.; Grove, T.L.; Trimble, D.A.

1990-01-01

Eruptive activity during the past 11,000 years at Medicine Lake volcano has been episodic. Eight eruptions produced about 5.3 km3 of basaltic lava during an interval of a few hundred years about 10 500 years B.P. After a hiatus of about 6000 years, eruptive activity resumed with a small andesite eruption at about 4300 years B.P. Approximately 2.5 km3 of lava with compositions ranging from basalt to rhyolite vented in nine eruptions during an interval of about 3400 years in late Holocene time. The most recent eruption occurred about 900 years B.P. A compositional gap in SiO2 values of erupted lavas occurs between 58 and 63%. The gap is spanned by chilled magmatic inclusions in late Holocene silicic lavas. Late Holocene andesitic to rhyolitic lavas were probably derived by fractionation, assimilation, and mixing from high-alumina basalt parental magma, possibly from basalt intruded into the volcano during the early mafic episode. Eruptive activity is probably driven by intrusions of basalt that occur during E-W stretching of the crust in an extensional tectonic environment. Vents are typically aligned parallel or subparallel to major structural features, most commonly within 30?? of north. Intruded magma should provide adequate heat for commercial geothermal development if sufficient fluids can be found. -from Authors

Active submarine eruption of boninite in the northeastern Lau Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Resing, Joseph A.; Rubin, Kenneth H.; Embley, Robert W.; Lupton, John E.; Baker, Edward T.; Dziak, Robert P.; Baumberger, Tamara; Lilley, Marvin D.; Huber, Julie A.; Shank, Timothy M.; Butterfield, David A.; Clague, David A.; Keller, Nicole S.; Merle, Susan G.; Buck, Nathaniel J.; Michael, Peter J.; Soule, Adam; Caress, David W.; Walker, Sharon L.; Davis, Richard; Cowen, James P.; Reysenbach, Anna-Louise; Thomas, Hans

2011-11-01

Subduction of oceanic crust and the formation of volcanic arcs above the subduction zone are important components in Earth's geological and geochemical cycles. Subduction consumes and recycles material from the oceanic plates, releasing fluids and gases that enhance magmatic activity, feed hydrothermal systems, generate ore deposits and nurture chemosynthetic biological communities. Among the first lavas to erupt at the surface from a nascent subduction zone are a type classified as boninites. These lavas contain information about the early stages of subduction, yet because most subduction systems on Earth are old and well-established, boninite lavas have previously only been observed in the ancient geological record. Here we observe and sample an active boninite eruption occurring at 1,200m depth at the West Mata submarine volcano in the northeast Lau Basin, southwest Pacific Ocean. We find that large volumes of H2O, CO2 and sulphur are emitted, which we suggest are derived from the subducting slab. These volatiles drive explosive eruptions that fragment rocks and generate abundant incandescent magma-skinned bubbles and pillow lavas. The eruption has been ongoing for at least 2.5 years and we conclude that this boninite eruption is a multi-year, low-mass-transfer-rate eruption. Thus the Lau Basin may provide an important site for the long-term study of submarine volcanic eruptions related to the early stages of subduction.

Active Eruptions in the NE Lau Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Resing, J. A.; Embley, R. W.

2009-12-01

NE Lau Response Team: K Rubin, E Baker, J Lupton, M Lilley, T Shank, S Merle, R Dziak, T Collasius (Jason 2 Expedition Leader), N Buck, T Baumberger, D Butterfield, D Clague, D Conlin, J Cowen, R Davis, L Evans, J Huber, M Keith, N Keller, P Michael, E Podowski, A-L Reysenbach, K Roe, H Thomas, S Walker. During a May 2009 cruise to W Mata volcano in the NE Lau Basin, we made the first observations of an active eruption on the deep-sea floor. The cruise was organized after volcanic activity was detected at two sites (W Mata volcano and NE Lau Spreading Center, NELSC) during a Nov. 2008 NOAA-PMEL expedition. At that time, both sites had elevated H2 concentrations and volcaniclastic shards in the hydrothermal plumes. Moored hydrophone data since Jan 2009 indicate that the activity at W Mata has been continuous between these expeditions. Results of our cruise and other work suggest that the NE Lau Basin hosts an unusually high level of magmatic activity, making it an ideal location to study the effects of magmatic processes on hydrothermal activity and associated ecosystems. W Mata was visited with 5 ROV Jason 2 dives and 2 dives with the MBARI autonomous mapping vehicle in May 2009. It was actively erupting at the 1200 m deep summit during each, so a hydrophone was deployed locally to collect acoustic data. Ship and shore-based analysis of HD video, molten lava, rocks, sediments, hot spring waters, and micro- and macro biological specimens collected by Jason 2 have provided a wealth of data. The eruption itself was characterized by extrusion of red, molten lava, extensive degassing, formation of large magma bubbles, explosive pyroclast ejection, and the active extrusion of pillow lavas. The erupting magmas are boninite, a relatively rare magma type found only at convergent margins. The hydrothermal fluids are generally acidic and all diffuse fluids collected were microbially active, even those at pH <3. W Mata was host to shrimp similar to those found at several other submarine volcanoes including actively erupting NW Rota. Two dives were also conducted on the NELSC, which was no longer erupting and showed no signs of extensive eruption-related hydrothermal activity. A new lava flow was found beneath the Nov. 2008 zone of near-bottom water column temperature anomalies. Preliminary radiometric dating of lavas is consistent with a Nov. 2008 eruption. For >20 yrs the PMEL-Vents and NSF RIDGE programs have sought to observe active eruptions to understand their impacts and modes of occurrence, yet these dynamic events have been difficult to capture. This response cruise produced new insights on submarine volcanism, including the first documented back-arc spreading center eruption, the first boninitic eruption, and the first observation of pillow lava formation in the deep sea, arguably one of Earth’s most common surface rock forms. The “rapidity” with which we were able to return to these sites aided in this success. The cruise on the R/V TG Thompson was funded by NSF through the R2K, MARGINS, and MGG programs, and by NOAA Ocean Exploration and PMEL. Over 37 letters of interest were submitted from the scientific community to join the cruise and/or to receive samples, from which a multidisciplinary team of petrologists, fluid chemists, oceanographers, geophysicists, and macro- and micro- biologists was assembled.

The initiation of coronal mass ejections by newly emerging magnetic flux

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Feynman, J.; Martin, S. F.

1995-01-01

We present observational evidence that eruptions of quiescent filaments and associated coronal mass ejections (CMEs) occur as a consequence of the destabilization of large-scale coronal arcades due to interactions between these structures and new and growing active regions. Both statistical and case studies have been carried out. In a case study of a 'bulge' observed by the High-Altitude Observatory Solar Maximum Mission coronagraph, the high-resolution magnetograms from the Big Bear Solar Observatory show newly emerging and rapidly changing flux in the magnetic fields that apparently underlie the bugle. For other case studies and in the statistical work the eruption of major quiescent filaments was taken as a proxy for CME eruption. We have found that two thirds of the quiescent-filament-associated CMEs occurred after substantial amounts of new magnetic flux emerged in the vicinity of the filament. In addition, in a study of all major quiescent filaments and active regions appearing in a 2-month period we found that 17 of the 22 filaments that were associated with new active regions erupted and 26 of the 31 filaments that were not associated with new flux did not erupt. In all cases in which the new flux was oriented favorably for reconnection with the preexisting large-scale coronal arcades; the filament was observed to erupt. The appearance of the new flux in the form of new active regions begins a few days before the eruption and typically is still occurring at the time of the eruption. A CME initiation scenario taking account of these observational results is proposed.

Satellite thermal and tilt measurements of the 2007 - 2008 eruptive period at Kilauea volcano: Implications for down rift magma transport

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steffke, A. M.; Harris, A. J.

2010-12-01

The 2007-2008 eruptive period at Kilauea volcano, Hawai‘i, was characterized by frequent changes in style, location and intensity of effusive activity. We use thermal data from the GOES-Imager and MODIS to investigate three particularly interesting eruptive periods: (1) June 17 - July 4, 2007 (the Father’s Day eruption), (2) July 21 - August 5, 2007, and (3) August 6 - 11, 2008. Each of these eruptive periods were accompanied by deflation-inflation events (DI events) at the summit of Kilauea, with a delayed increase in activity at Pu `u `O`o, indicating the arrival of new magma at the eruption sites, some 20 km distant from the summit, following each DI event. Arrival of new magma, and the associated increase in effusive activity, is apparent in the satellite data as an increase in the thermal intensity of the recorded hot spot. This allows us to time the arrival of new magma (or its pressure pulse) down the rift zone that connects the summit and the eruption site over a time scale of hours, or in the case of GOES data - 15 minutes. We can compare the satellite-derived thermal intensity time series with the deflation and inflation events occurring at the summit to determine transit times for the response down rift. Using both the satellite and tilt measurements, the volumes of magma entering and exiting the system can also be compared, with the satellite data giving the volume subsequently erupted down rift at Pu`u `O`o and across the active lava flow field.

A Reappraisal of Seismicity and Eruptions of Pantelleria Island and the Sicily Channel (Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spampinato, Salvatore; Ursino, Andrea; Barbano, Maria Serafina; Pirrotta, Claudia; Rapisarda, Salvatore; Larocca, Graziano; Platania, Pier Raffaele

2017-07-01

Three main tectonic depressions (the Pantelleria, Linosa and Malta troughs), the expression of a continental rift, characterize the Sicily Channel, a region with recent volcanic activity attested by the Pantelleria and Linosa volcanic islands, as well as numerous seamounts. To understand the seismic and eruptive behaviour of this area, we compare historical and instrumental seismicity retrieved from catalogues with recordings from both a mobile seismic network and a permanent station deployed at Pantelleria. A review of historical eruptions affecting the Sicily Channel is also presented. Recent instrumental seismicity shows that the Sicily Channel is characterized by a low level of seismicity, with earthquakes mainly occurring as isolated events, rather than swarms as observed during the few documented eruptive periods. The results of a seismic survey in 2006-2007, as well as the signals recorded by a permanent station in 2010-2014, enable stating that also Pantelleria is characterized by a very low rate of seismicity. The available, though scant, historical information suggests a recurrence time of about a century for the volcanic activity and that eruptions are usually preceded by seismic swarms. In the only historical known eruption of Pantelleria, in addition to shocks, uplifting and increasing fumarole activity, were observed. Notwithstanding the lack of eruptions over the past century, and despite the low recent seismic rate, we believe that the geophysical monitoring of the Sicily Channel needs improving since it is an area of potentially high seismic and volcanic hazard given the presence of several active submarine eruptive centres.

Attaining high-resolution eruptive histories for active arc volcanoes with argon geochronology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Calvert, A. T.

2012-04-01

Geochronology of active arc volcanoes commonly illuminates eruptive behavior over tens to hundreds of thousands of years, lengthy periods of repose punctuated by short eruptive episodes, and spatial and compositional changes with time. Despite the >1 Gyr half-life of 40K, argon geochronology is an exceptional tool for characterizing Pleistocene to Holocene eruptive histories and for placing constraints on models of eruptive behavior. Reliable 40Ar/39Ar ages of calc-alkaline arc rocks with rigorously derived errors small enough (± 500 to 3,000 years) to constrain eruptive histories are attainable using careful procedures. Sample selection and analytical work in concert with geologic mapping and stratigraphic studies are essential for determining reliable eruptive histories. Preparation, irradiation and spectrometric techniques have all been optimized to produce reliable, high-precision results. Examples of Cascade and Alaska/Aleutian eruptive histories illustrating duration of activity from single centers, eruptive episodicity, and spatial and compositional changes with time will be presented: (1) Mt. Shasta, the largest Cascade stratovolcano, has a 700,000-year history (Calvert and Christiansen, 2011 Fall AGU). A similar sized and composition volcano (Rainbow Mountain) on the Cascade axis was active 1200-950 ka. The eruptive center then jumped west 15 km to the south flank of the present Mt. Shasta and produced a stratovolcano from 700-450 ka likely rivaling today's Mt. Shasta. The NW portion of that edifice failed in an enormous (>30 km3) debris avalanche. Vents near today's active summit erupted 300-135 ka, then 60-15 ka. A voluminous, but short-lived eruptive sequence occurred at 11 ka, including a summit explosion producing a subplinian plume, followed by >60 km3 andesite-dacite Shastina domes and flows, then by the flank dacite Black Butte dome. Holocene domes and flows subsequently rebuilt the summit and flowed to the north and east. (2) Mt. Veniaminof on the Alaska Peninsula is a ~350 km3 tholeiitic arc volcano with basalt early in its history (~250 ka) and basaltic andesite to dacite currently. Chemical variation is due principally to crystallization differentiation with little or no evidence for crustal contamination. The smooth increase with time of Veniaminof's most silicic products chronicles the development of an intrusive complex, also reflected in granitoid blocks expelled during Holocene explosive eruptions (Bacon et al., 2007 Geology). (3) The Three Sisters in the central Oregon Cascades are a cluster of small volcanoes with remarkable chemical diversity (basalt to high silica rhyolite) that mainly erupted in a short interval between 40-15 ka. This eruptive interval was unusual in its chemical diversity beginning bimodal (basaltic andesite and rhyolite), progressing to dacite then andesite, and back to basaltic andesite. Over eighty percent of mapped units are dated, enabling time-series displays of the chemical and spatial evolution of the volcanic field (Calvert et al., 2010 Fall AGU).

Eruption of a Multiple-Turn Helical Magnetic Flux Tube in a Large Flare: Evidence for External and Internal Reconnection that Fits the Breakout Model of Solar Magnetic Eruptions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gary, G. Allen; Moore, R. L.

2004-01-01

We present observations and an interpretation of a unique multiple-turn spiral flux tube eruption from active region 10030 on 2002 July 15. The TRACE C IV observations clearly show a flux tube that is helical and erupting from within a sheared magnetic field. These observations are interpreted in the context of the breakout model for magnetic field explosions. The initiation of the helix eruption. as determined by a linear backward extrapolation, starts 25 s after the peak of the flare's strongest impulsive spike of microwave gyrosynchrotron radiation early in the flare s explosive phase, implying that the sheared core field is not the site of the initial reconnection. Within the quadrupolar configuration of the active region, the external and internal reconnection sites are identified in each of two consecutive eruptive flares that produce a double coronal mass ejection (CME). The first external breakout reconnection apparently releases an underlying sheared core field and allows it to erupt, leading to internal reconnection in the wake of the erupting helix. This internal reconnection releases the helix and heats the two-ribbon flare. These events lead to the first CME and are followed by a second breakout that initiates a second and larger halo CME. The strong magnetic shear in the region is compatible with the observed rapid proper motion and evolution of the active region. The multiple-turn helix originates from above a sheared-field magnetic inversion line within a filament channel. and starts to erupt only after fast breakout reconnection has started. These observations are counter to the standard flare model and support the breakout model for eruptive flare initiation.

Classification of Volcanic Eruptions on Io and Earth Using Low-Resolution Remote Sensing Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Davies, A. G.; Keszthelyi, L. P.

2005-01-01

Two bodies in the Solar System exhibit high-temperature active volcanism: Earth and Io. While there are important differences in the eruptions on Earth and Io, in low-spatial-resolution data (corresponding to the bulk of available and foreseeable data of Io), similar styles of effusive and explosive volcanism yield similar thermal flux densities. For example, a square metre of an active pahoehoe flow on Io looks very similar to a square metre of an active pahoehoe flow on Earth. If, from observed thermal emission as a function of wavelength and change in thermal emission with time, the eruption style of an ionian volcano can be constrained, estimates of volumetric fluxes can be made and compared with terrestrial volcanoes using techniques derived for analysing terrestrial remotely-sensed data. In this way we find that ionian volcanoes fundamentally differ from their terrestrial counterparts only in areal extent, with Io volcanoes covering larger areas, with higher volumetric flux. Io outbursts eruptions have enormous implied volumetric fluxes, and may scale with terrestrial flood basalt eruptions. Even with the low-spatial resolution data available it is possible to sometimes constrain and classify eruption style both on Io and Earth from the integrated thermal emission spectrum. Plotting 2 and 5 m fluxes reveals the evolution of individual eruptions of different styles, as well as the relative intensity of eruptions, allowing comparison to be made from individual eruptions on both planets. Analyses like this can be used for interpretation of low-resolution data until the next mission to the jovian system. For a number of Io volcanoes (including Pele, Prometheus, Amirani, Zamama, Culann, Tohil and Tvashtar) we do have high/moderate resolution imagery to aid determination of eruption mode from analyses based only on low spatial-resolution data.

Total electron content anomalies associated with global VEI4 + volcanic eruptions during 2002-2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Wang; Guo, Jinyun; Yue, Jianping; Shen, Yi; Yang, Yang

2016-10-01

In previous studies, little attention has been paid to the total electron content (TEC) anomalies preceding the volcanic eruption. We analyze the coupling relationship between volcanic eruption and TEC anomalies, and discuss the spatial distribution of TEC anomalies associated with volcanic geographical location. We utilize the global ionosphere map (GIM) data from the Center for Orbit Determination in Europe (CODE) to analyze TEC variations before the global volcanic eruptions indicated by VEI (Volcanic Explosivity Index) 4 + from 2002 to 2015 with the sliding interquartile range method. The results indicate the occurrence rate of TEC anomalies before great volcanic eruptions is related with the volcanic type and geographical position. The occurrence rate of TEC anomalies before stratovolcano and caldera eruptions is higher than that before shield and pyroclastic shield eruptions, and the occurrence rate of TEC anomalies has a descending trend from low latitudes to high latitudes. The TEC anomalies before the volcanic eruptions in low-mid latitudes are within the volcanic affected areas, but do not coincide with the volcanic foci. The corresponding TEC anomalies could be observed in the conjugated region, and all the TEC anomalies in the volcanic affected areas are usually close to bounds of equatorial anomaly zones. However, the TEC anomalies preceding these eruptions in high latitudes usually surround the volcano, and no TEC anomalies appear in the conjugated region. These conclusions have potential applications to the prediction of great volcanic eruptions in the future.

Io - One of at Least Four Simultaneous Erupting Volcanic Eruptions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1979-01-01

This photo of an active volcanic eruption on Jupiter's satellite Io was taken 1 hour, 52 minutes after the accompanying picture, late in the evening of March 4, 1979, Pacific time. On the limb of the satellite can be seen one of at least four simultaneous volcanic eruptions -- the first such activity ever observed on another celestial body. Seen against the limb are plume-like structures rising more than 60 miles (100 kilometers) above the surface. Several eruptions have been identified with volcanic structures on the surface of Io, which have also been identified by Voyager 1's infrared instrument as being abnormally hot -- several hundred degrees warmer than surrounding terrain. The fact that several eruptions appear to be occurring at the same time suggests that Io has the most active surface in the solar system and that volcanism is going on there essentially continuously. Another characteristic of the observed volcanism is that it appears to be extremely explosive, with velocities more than 2,000 miles an hour (at least 1 kilometer per second). That is more violent than terrestrial volcanoes like Etna, Vesuvius or Krakatoa.

Generalized benign cutaneous reaction to cytarabine.

PubMed

Ruben, Beth S; Yu, Wesley Y; Liu, Fan; Truong, Sam V; Wang, Kevin C; Fox, Lindy P

2015-11-01

Cytarabine-induced toxicity manifests as various cutaneous morphologies. A generalized papular purpuric eruption has not been well described. We aimed to characterize a distinct cytarabine-related eruption. We reviewed all cases of cytarabine-related toxicity with papular purpuric eruptions or violaceous erythema at the University of California, San Francisco between 2006 and 2011. Sixteen cases were identified. The eruption began as erythematous papules that evolved into coalescing purpuric papules and plaques. It had affinity for intertriginous areas, neck, ears, and scalp. Pruritus was common, but no systemic complications were documented. Thirteen patients (81.3%) developed the eruption after completion of chemotherapy. Differential diagnosis often included viral exanthem (62.5%), drug eruption (50%), and vasculitis (37.5%). Histopathology was nonspecific but commonly demonstrated sparse lymphocytic infiltrates, spongiosis, and/or red cell extravasation. Importantly, the eruption was neither predicted by past cytarabine exposure nor predictive of future recurrence. This is a review of cases from a single institution. Observation was limited to acute hospitalization, however, charts were reviewed for subsequent reactions on rechallenge. The eruption described herein represents a specific skin-limited reaction to cytarabine. Awareness of its characteristic morphology, distribution, and timeline will aid in clinical diagnosis. Reassurance concerning its benign nature will prevent unnecessary intervention or cessation of chemotherapy. Copyright © 2015 American Academy of Dermatology, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The eruption in Holuhraun, NE Iceland 2014-2015: Real-time monitoring and influence of landscape on lava flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jónsdóttir, Ingibjörg; Höskuldsson, Ármann; Thordarson, Thor; Bartolini, Stefania; Becerril, Laura; Marti Molist, Joan; Þorvaldsson, Skúli; Björnsson, Daði; Höskuldsson, Friðrik

2016-04-01

The largest eruption in Iceland since the Laki 1783-84 event began in Holuhraun, NE Iceland, on 31 August 2014, producing a lava flow field which, by the end of the eruption on February 27th 2015, covered 84,5 km2 with volume of 1,44 km3. Throughout the event, various satellite images (NOAA AVHRR, MODIS, SUOMI NPP VIIRS, ASTER, LANDSAT7&8, EO-1 ALI & HYPERION, RADARSAT-2, SENTINEL-1, COSMO SKYMED, TERRASAR X) were analysed to monitor the development of activity, identify active flow fronts and channels, and map the lava extent in close collaboration with the on-site field group. Aerial photographs and radar images from the Icelandic Coast Guard Dash 8 aircraft supported this effort. By the end of 2015, Loftmyndir ehf had produced a detailed 3D model of the lava using aerial photographs from 2013 and 2015. The importance of carrying out real-time monitoring of a volcanic eruption is: i) to locate sites of elevated temperature that may be registering new areas of activity within the lava or opening of vents or fissures. ii) To establish and verify timing of events at the vents and within the lava. iii) To identify potential volcanic hazard that can be caused by lava movements, eruption-induced flash flooding, tephra fallout or gas pollution. iv) to provide up-to-date regional information to field groups concerning safety as well as to locate sites for sampling lava, tephra and polluted water. v) to produce quantitative information on magma discharge and lava flow advance, map the lava extent, document the flow morphology and plume/tephra dispersal. During the eruption, these efforts supported mapping of the extent of the lava every 3-4 days on average underpinning the time series of magma discharge calculations. Digitial elevation models from before and after the event, combined with the real-time data series, supports detailed analysis of how landscape affects lava flow in a flat terrain (<0,4°), and provides important input to further developing lava flow models within the EU VETOOLS project, aiming to improve response to future events. Monitoring the site was carried out throughout 2015, including the cooling of the lava in relation to thickness and inflation history. This also included mapping of hydrology in the Dyngjujökull outwash plane, development of ponds where the lava blocked previous river channels.

Giant Sunspot Erupts with 4th Substantial Flare

NASA Image and Video Library

2017-12-08

The sun emitted a significant solar flare, peaking at 5:40 p.m. EDT on Oct. 24, 2014. The flare erupted from a particularly large active region -- labeled AR 12192 -- on the sun that is the largest in 24 years. This is the fourth substantial flare from this active region since Oct. 19. Read more: www.nasa.gov/content/goddard/giant-sunspot-erupts-with-4t...

Magnetic Evolution Linked to the Interrelated Activity Complexes Involving Transequatorial Coronal Holes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gutiérrez, Heidy; Taliashvili, Lela; Lazarian, Alexandre

2018-06-01

We studied a magnetic evolution linked to a cadence of interrelated activities developed in a large solar region during Carrington rotations, CRs 2119 - 2121, based on multi-wavelength and multi-spacecraft observations. Three coronal holes (CHs), two transequatorial and one isolated, eight filaments and some active regions were distributed closely in the region. Every of these filaments partial and/or complete eruption was linked to a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) or coronal jet. We found different types of interrelated activities: eruptions of three pairs of interrelated filaments close to a CH and eruptions of two filaments close to the active region and CH. Some indicators of the magnetic reconnection were observed frequently during the pre- as well as post-filament eruptions. Additionally, post-filament eruption and/or post-CME processes show their implication in the evolution of nearby CHs and newly formed transient CHs or dimming regions, including a new CH formation. We discussed the small- and large-scale magnetic reconfigurations associated with these interrelated activity complexes, the ones involving long-lived transequatorial CHs, and their possible implication in the evolution of the global solar magnetic field, especially with the starting processes of quadruple configuration and polarity reversal of the solar cycle 24.

Mapping Cryo-volcanic Activity from Enceladus’ South Polar Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tigges, Mattie; Spitale, Joseph N.

2017-10-01

Using Cassini images taken of Enceladus’ south polar plumes at various times and orbital locations, we are producing maps of eruptive activity at various times. The purpose of this experiment is to understand the mechanism that controls the cryo-volcanic eruptions.The current hypothesis is that Tiger Stripe activity is modulated by tidal forcing, which would predict a correlation between orbital phase and the amount and distribution of eruptive activity. The precise nature of those correlations depends on how the crust is failing and how the plumbing system is organized.We use simulated curtains of ejected material that are superimposed over Cassini images, obtained during thirteen different flybys, taken between mid-2009 and mid-2012. Each set represents a different time and location in Enceladus’ orbit about Saturn, and contains images of the plumes from various angles. Shadows cast onto the backlit ejected material by the terminator of the moon are used to determine which fractures were active at that point in the orbit.Maps of the spatial distribution of eruptive activity at various orbital phases can be used to evaluate various hypotheses about the failure modes that produce the eruptions.

Earth's Volcanoes and their Eruptions; the 3rd edition of the Smithsonian Institution's Volcanoes of the World

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siebert, L.; Simkin, T.; Kimberly, P.

2010-12-01

The 3rd edition of the Smithsonian Institution’s Volcanoes of the World incorporates data on the world’s volcanoes and their eruptions compiled since 1968 by the Institution’s Global Volcanism Program (GVP). Published this Fall jointly by the Smithsonian and the University of California Press, it supplements data from the 1994 2nd edition and includes new data on the number of people living in proximity to volcanoes, the dominant rock lithologies at each volcano, Holocene caldera-forming eruptions, and preliminary lists of Pleistocene volcanoes and large-volume Pleistocene eruptions. The 3rd edition contains data on nearly 1550 volcanoes of known or possible Holocene age, including chronologies, characteristics, and magnitudes for >10,400 Holocene eruptions. The standard 20 eruptive characteristics of the IAVCEI volcano catalog series have been modified to include dated vertical edifice collapse events due to magma chamber evacuation following large-volume explosive eruptions or mafic lava effusion, and lateral sector collapse. Data from previous editions of Volcanoes of the World are also supplemented by listings of up to the 5 most dominant lithologies at each volcano, along with data on population living within 5, 10, 30, and 100 km radii of each volcano or volcanic field. Population data indicate that the most populated regions also contain the most frequently active volcanoes. Eruption data document lava and tephra volumes and Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) assignments for >7800 eruptions. Interpretation of VRF data has led to documentation of global eruption rates and the power law relationship between magnitude and frequency of volcanic eruptions. Data with volcanic hazards implications include those on fatalities and evacuations and the rate at which eruptions reach their climax. In recognition of the hazards implications of potential resumption of activity at pre-Holocene volcanoes, the 3rd edition includes very preliminary lists of Pleistocene volcanoes and large-volume Pleistocene eruptions, the latter in collaboration with the VOGRIPA project of Steve Sparks and colleagues. The GVP volcano and eruption data derive both from the retrospective perspective of the volcanological and other literature and documentation of contemporary eruptions and volcanic unrest in the Smithsonian’s monthly bulletin and Weekly Volcanic Activity Reports compiled since 2000 in collaboration with the USGS.

Magmatic and Volcanic Processes Interpreted from Recent Ash Emissions from Nevado del Ruiz, Colombia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wall, K. T.; Harpel, C. J.; Martinez, L. M.; Ceballos, J. A.; Cortés, G. P.

2017-12-01

Nevado del Ruiz is a composite volcano located in the Colombian Central Cordillera. It is the modern edifice of the Nevado del Ruiz Volcanic Complex that has been active since 1.8 Ma. Through historic times, Ruiz has exhibited decades-long eruptive stages that include minor explosions and fumarolic activity bracketing one major magmatic event. Modern eruptive activity began with seismic unrest in 1984, a small explosive eruption on September 11, 1985, and the catastrophic lahar-generating eruption of November 13, 1985. Since then, Ruiz has periodically erupted plumes up to a few kilometers above the crater, including a phreatomagmatic eruption on September 1, 1989, eruptions on May 29 (1 km plume) and June 30 (8 km plume) 2012, and frequent minor ash emissions from 2015 through the present. We have examined a suite of samples from the 1985, 1989, 2012, and 2015 eruptions to assess the origin of erupted materials (juvenile vs. non-juvenile) and nature of eruptive and subvolcanic processes (e.g. fresh intrusion, phreatic explosion). The November 1985 ash is dominated by beige to light gray pumice and free crystals, while samples from September 1985 and the 1989 through 2015 eruptions contain other fresh looking angular to subangular particles, including dense glassy to microcrystalline chips and vesicular glass shards. If juvenile, as we suspect, these components indicate phreatomagmatic to magmatic eruptive processes. Vesicular glass ranges from colorless to brown, often within the same sample, suggesting that bimodal magmatic sources, as recorded by mingled pumices of November 1985, have continued to play a role in eruptions at Ruiz. In particular, ash from 1989 contains vesicular glass that is 65% colorless to beige and 35% brown. Sparse, very dark brown vesicular glass appears in ash from June 2012—a larger eruption than that of May 2012—and is also observed in some 2015 samples, suggesting a more prominent mafic component. In addition to our observations from binocular microscopy, we will present results from SEM and electron microprobe analyses that further clarify the magmatic conditions that produced these dense and vesicular glassy components, and that test our hypothesis that these particles represent juvenile material from continued phreatomagmatic to magmatic eruptions at Ruiz.

Constructing event trees for volcanic crises

USGS Publications Warehouse

Newhall, C.; Hoblitt, R.

2002-01-01

Event trees are useful frameworks for discussing probabilities of possible outcomes of volcanic unrest. Each branch of the tree leads from a necessary prior event to a more specific outcome, e.g., from an eruption to a pyroclastic flow. Where volcanic processes are poorly understood, probability estimates might be purely empirical - utilizing observations of past and current activity and an assumption that the future will mimic the past or follow a present trend. If processes are better understood, probabilities might be estimated from a theoritical model, either subjectively or by numerical simulations. Use of Bayes' theorem aids in the estimation of how fresh unrest raises (or lowers) the probabilities of eruptions. Use of event trees during volcanic crises can help volcanologists to critically review their analysis of hazard, and help officials and individuals to compare volcanic risks with more familiar risks. Trees also emphasize the inherently probabilistic nature of volcano forecasts, with multiple possible outcomes.

Textural and mineral chemistry constraints on evolution of Merapi Volcano, Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Innocenti, Sabrina; del Marmol, Mary-Ann; Voight, Barry; Andreastuti, Supriyati; Furman, Tanya

2013-07-01

We analyze and compare the textures of Merapi lavas (basalts and basaltic andesites) ranging in age from Proto-Merapi through modern activity, with the goal of gaining insights on the temporal evolution of Merapi's magmatic system. Analysis of textural parameters, such as phenocryst and microphenocryst crystallinity, coupled with crystal size distribution theory, provides information about the storage and transport of magmas. We combine textural analyses with geochemical investigations for a comprehensive comparison of erupted lavas over time. The chemical analyses identify crystal growth processes in magma chambers and underline differences between sample groups. Our work suggests the occurrence of two distinct histories, presumably associated with (at least) two generally distinct types of rheological behaviors and storage/transport systems. These behaviors are associated with different plagioclase growth patterns, with both groups influenced by late-stage shallow decompression degassing-induced microlite crystallization. Both groups contain amphibole crystals that indicate an early period of mid-crustal to deep-crustal storage of water-rich magmas. Dome lavas from the 20th century eruptive activity indicate quasi-steady-state nucleation-and-growth evolution interspersed with episodes of reheating and textural coarsening, suggesting residence in magma storage at multiple depths, both > 10 km, and < 10 km, while samples from the older stratigraphic history of Merapi record both repeated attainment and loss of quasi-steady-state conditions. These observations, coupled with our companion study of Merapi tephra samples, suggest that the relatively benign type of activity observed in the 20th century will be interrupted from time to time in the future by more explosive eruptions, such as that of 2010.

Volcanic Thunder From Explosive Eruptions at Bogoslof Volcano, Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haney, Matthew M.; Van Eaton, Alexa R.; Lyons, John J.; Kramer, Rebecca L.; Fee, David; Iezzi, Alexandra M.

2018-04-01

Lightning often occurs during ash-producing eruptive activity, and its detection is now being used in volcano monitoring for rapid alerts. We report on infrasonic and sonic recordings of the related, but previously undocumented, phenomenon of volcanic thunder. We observe volcanic thunder during the waning stages of two explosive eruptions at Bogoslof volcano, Alaska, on a microphone array located 60 km away. Thunder signals arrive from a different direction than coeruptive infrasound generated at the vent following an eruption on 10 June 2017, consistent with locations from lightning networks. For the 8 March 2017 eruption, arrival times and amplitudes of high-frequency thunder signals correlate well with the timing and strength of lightning detections. In both cases, the thunder is associated with lightning that continues after significant eruptive activity has ended. Infrasonic and sonic observations of volcanic thunder offer a new avenue for studying electrification processes in volcanic plumes.

Late Holocene history of Chaitén Volcano: new evidence for a 17th century eruption

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lara, Luis E.; Moreno, Rodrigo; Amigo, Álvaro; Hoblitt, Richard P.; Pierson, Thomas C.

2013-01-01

Prior to May 2008, it was thought that the last eruption of Chaitén Volcano occurred more than 5,000 years ago, a rather long quiescent period for a volcano in such an active arc segment. However, increasingly more Holocene eruptions are being identified. This article presents both geological and historical evidence for late Holocene eruptive activity in the 17th century (AD 1625-1658), which included an explosive rhyolitic eruption that produced pumice ash fallout east of the volcano and caused channel aggradation in the Chaitén River. The extents of tephra fall and channel aggradation were similar to those of May 2008. Fine ash, pumice and obsidian fragments in the pre-2008 deposits are unequivocally derived from Chaitén Volcano. This finding has important implications for hazards assessment in the area and suggests the eruptive frequency and magnitude should be more thoroughly studied.

May 2011 eruption of Telica Volcano, Nicaragua: Multidisciplinary observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Witter, M. R.; Geirsson, H.; La Femina, P. C.; Roman, D. C.; Rodgers, M.; Muñoz, A.; Morales, A.; Tenorio, V.; Chavarria, D.; Feineman, M. D.; Furman, T.; Longley, A.

2011-12-01

Telica volcano, an andesitic stratovolcano in north-western Nicaragua, erupted in May 2011. The eruption, produced ash but no lava and required the evacuation of over 500 people; no injuries were reported. We present the first detailed report of the eruption, using information from the TElica Seismic ANd Deformation (TESAND) network, that provides real-time data, along with visual observations, ash leachate analysis, and fumarole temperature measurements. Telica is located in the Maribios mountain range. It is one of the most active volcanoes in Nicaragua and has frequent small explosions and rare large (VEI 4) eruptions, with the most recent sizable eruptions (VEI 2) occurring in 1946 and 1999. The 2011 eruption is the most explosive since 1999. The eruption consisted of a series of ash explosions, with the first observations from May 8, 2011 when local residents reported ash fall NE of the active crater. Popping sounds could be heard coming from the crater on May 10. On May 13, the activity intensified and continued with some explosions every day for about 2 weeks. The well-defined plumes originated from the northern part of the crater. Ash fall was reported 4 km north of the active crater on May 14. The largest explosion at 2:54 pm (local time) on May 21 threw rocks from the crater and generated a column 2 km in height. Fresh ash samples were collected on May 16, 18, and 21 and preliminary inspection shows that the majority of the material is fragmented rock and crystalline material, i.e. not juvenile. Ash leachates (ash:water = 1:25) contain a few ppb As, Se, and Cd; tens of ppb Co and Ni; and up to a few hundred ppb Cu and Zn. Telica typically has hundreds of small seismic events every day, even when the volcano is not erupting. The TESAND network detected an increase in the rate and magnitude of seismic activity, with a maximum magnitude of 3.3. Elevated fumarole temperatures at locations near the active vent were also observed throughout the May 2011 eruption. Temperature measurements taken on May 26 recorded a maximum of 539°C. Ten continuous GPS stations running on and close to the volcano showed little deformation, suggesting that substantial quantities of new magma were not displaced beneath the volcanic edifice.

Low intensity hawaiian fountaining as exemplified by the March 2011, Kamoamoa eruption at Kilauea Volcano, Hawai`i (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Orr, T. R.; Houghton, B. F.; Poland, M. P.; Patrick, M. R.; Thelen, W. A.; Sutton, A. J.; Parcheta, C. E.; Thornber, C. R.

2013-12-01

The latest 'classic' hawaiian high-fountaining activity at Kilauea Volcano occurred in 1983-1986 with construction of the Pu`u `O`o pyroclastic cone. Since then, eruptions at Kilauea have been dominated by nearly continuous effusive activity. Episodes of sustained low hawaiian fountaining have occurred but are rare and restricted to short-lived fissure eruptions along Kilauea's east rift zone. The most recent of these weakly explosive fissure eruptions--the Kamoamoa eruption--occurred 5-9 March 2011. The Kamoamoa eruption was probably the consequence of a decrease in the carrying capacity of the conduit feeding the episode 58 eruptive vent down-rift from Pu`u `O`o in Kilauea's east rift zone. As output from the vent waned, Kilauea's summit magma storage and east rift zone transport system began to pressurize, as manifested by an increase in seismicity along the upper east rift zone, inflation of the summit and Pu`u `O`o, expansion of the east rift zone, and rising lava levels at both the summit and Pu`u `O`o. A dike began propagating towards the surface from beneath Makaopuhi Crater, 6 km west of Pu`u `O`o, at 1342 Hawaiian Standard Time (UTC - 10 hours) on 5 March. A fissure eruption started about 3.5 hours later near Nāpau Crater, 2 km uprift of Pu`u `O`o. Activity initially jumped between numerous en echelon fissure segments before centering on discrete vents near both ends of the 2.4-km-long fissure system for the final two days of the eruption. About 2.6 mcm of lava was erupted over the course of four days with a peak eruption rate of 11 m3/s. The petrologic characteristics of the fissure-fed lava indicate mixing between hotter mantle-derived magma and cooler rift-stored magma, with a greater proportion of the cooler component than was present in east rift zone lava erupting before March 2011. The fissure eruption was accompanied by the highest SO2 emission rates since 1986. Coincidentally, the summit and Pu`u `O`o deflated as magma drained away, causing expansion of the ERZ. The geological, geophysical, and geochemical datasets collected before, during, and after the Kamoamoa eruption provide an unprecedented account of what, at least in recent decades, is the 'normal' mode for hawaiian fountaining at Kilauea--that is, low intensity fissure-fed eruptions. This activity differs from high fountaining in that there is little physical coupling between melt and magmatic gas--for much of the Kamoamoa eruption lava ponded sluggishly over the vents and was weakly disrupted by bursts from trains of very closely spaced gas bubbles. Such eruptions enable us to examine the middle ground between strombolian and classical hawaiian behaviors at basaltic volcanoes.

The 2012-2014 eruptive cycle of Copahue Volcano, Southern Andes. Magmatic-Hydrothermal system interaction and manifestations.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morales, Sergio; Alarcón, Alex; Basualto, Daniel; Bengoa, Cintia; Bertín, Daniel; Cardona, Carlos; Córdova, Maria; Franco, Luis; Gil, Fernando; Hernandez, Erasmo; Lara, Luis; Lazo, Jonathan; Mardones, Cristian; Medina, Roxana; Peña, Paola; Quijada, Jonathan; San Martín, Juan; Valderrama, Oscar

2015-04-01

Copahue Volcano (COPV), in Southern Andes of Chile, is an andesitic-basaltic stratovolcano, which is located on the western margin of Caviahue Caldera. The COPV have a NE-trending fissure with 9 aligned vents, being El Agrio the main currently active vent, with ca. 400 m in diameter. The COPV is placed into an extensive hydrothermal system which has modulated its recent 2012-2014 eruptive activity, with small phreatic to phreatomagmatic eruptions and isolated weak strombolian episodes and formation of crater lakes inside the main crater. Since 2012, the Southern Andes Volcano Observatory (OVDAS) carried out the real-time monitoring with seismic broadband stations, GPS, infrasound sensors and webcams. In this work, we report pre, sin, and post-eruptive seismic activity of the last two main eruptions (Dec, 2012 and Oct, 2014) both with different seismic precursors and superficial activity, showing the second one a particularly appearance of seismic quiescence episodes preceding explosive activity, as an indicator of interaction between magmatic-hydrothermal systems. The first episode, in late 2012, was characterized by a low frequency (0.3-0.4 Hz and 1.0-1.5 Hz) continuous tremor which increased gradually from background noise level amplitude to values of reduced displacement (DR), close to 50 cm2 at the peak of the eruption, reaching an eruptive column of ~1.5 km height. After few months of recording low energy seismicity, a sequence of low frequency, repetitive and low energy seismic events arose, with a frequency of occurrence up to 300 events/hour. Also, the VLP earthquakes were added to the record probably associated with magma intrusion into a deep magmatic chamber during all stages of eruptive process, joined to the record of VT seismicity during the same period, which is located throughout the Caviahue Caldera area. Both kind of seismic patterns were again recorded in October 2014, being the precursor of the new eruptive cycle at this time as well as the deformation of the volcanic edifice detected by GPS network. In this new eruptive process, the record of tremor was followed by particular seismic quiescence, as precursors of explosive activity which evolved from low acoustic energy signals toward more energetic signals with impulsive first arrivals and strong attenuation, joined to night incandescence in the main vent without evident juvenile material ejected, which could be associated to the temporal depression of the hydrothermal system located in the volcano system. The recent eruptive episode at Copahue Volcano is a good example of the complex temporal evolution of the interaction between magmatic and hydrothermal systems.

Scoria cone formation through a violent Strombolian eruption: Irao Volcano, SW Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kiyosugi, Koji; Horikawa, Yoshiyuki; Nagao, Takashi; Itaya, Tetsumaru; Connor, Charles B.; Tanaka, Kazuhiro

2014-01-01

Scoria cones are common volcanic features and are thought to most commonly develop through the deposition of ballistics produced by gentle Strombolian eruptions and the outward sliding of talus. However, some historic scoria cones have been observed to form with phases of more energetic violent Strombolian eruptions (e.g., the 1943-1952 eruption of Parícutin, central Mexico; the 1975 eruption of Tolbachik, Kamchatka), maintaining volcanic plumes several kilometers in height, sometimes simultaneous with active effusive lava flows. Geologic evidence shows that violent Strombolian eruptions during cone formation may be more common than is generally perceived, and therefore it is important to obtain additional insights about such eruptions to better assess volcanic hazards. We studied Irao Volcano, the largest basaltic monogenetic volcano in the Abu Monogenetic Volcano Group, SW Japan. The geologic features of this volcano are consistent with a violent Strombolian eruption, including voluminous ash and fine lapilli beds (on order of 10-1 km3 DRE) with simultaneous scoria cone formation and lava effusion from the base of the cone. The characteristics of the volcanic products suggest that the rate of magma ascent decreased gradually throughout the eruption and that less explosive Strombolian eruptions increased in frequency during the later stages of activity. During the eruption sequence, the chemical composition of the magma became more differentiated. A new K-Ar age determination for phlogopite crystallized within basalt dates the formation of Irao Volcano at 0.4 ± 0.05 Ma.

Phreatic eruptions and deformation of Ioto Island (Iwo-jima), Japan, triggered by deep magma injection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ueda, Hideki; Nagai, Masashi; Tanada, Toshikazu

2018-03-01

On Ioto Island (Iwo-jima), 44 phreatic eruptions have been recorded since 1889, when people began to settle there. Four of these eruptions, after the beginning of continuous observation by seismometers in 1976, were accompanied by intense seismic activity and rapid crustal deformation beforehand. Other eruptions on Ioto were without obvious crustal activities. In this paper, we discuss the mechanisms of phreatic eruptions on Ioto. Regular geodetic surveys and continuous GNSS observations show that Ioto intermittently uplifts at an abnormally high rate. All of the four eruptions accompanied by the precursors took place during intermittent uplifts. The crustal deformation before and after one of these eruptions revealed that a sill-like deformation source in the shallow part of Motoyama rapidly inflated before and deflated after the beginning of the eruption. From the results of a seismic array and a borehole survey, it is estimated that there is a layer of lava at a depth of about 100-200 m, and there is a tuff layer about 200-500 m beneath it. The eruptions accompanied by the precursors probably occurred due to abrupt boiling of hot water in hydrothermal reservoirs in the tuff layer, sealed by the lava layer and triggered by intermittent uplift. For the eruptions without precursors, the hydrothermal systems are weakly sealed by clay or probably occurred on the same principle as a geyser because phreatic eruptions had occurred beforehand and hydrostatic pressure is applied to the hydrothermal reservoirs.

SOLAR MULTIPLE ERUPTIONS FROM A CONFINED MAGNETIC STRUCTURE

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lee, Jeongwoo; Chae, Jongchul; Liu, Chang

2016-09-20

How eruption can recur from a confined magnetic structure is discussed based on the Solar Dynamics Observatory observations of the NOAA active region 11444, which produced three eruptions within 1.5 hr on 2012 March 27. The active region (AR) had the positive-polarity magnetic fields in the center surrounded by the negative-polarity fields around. Since such a distribution of magnetic polarity tends to form a dome-like magnetic fan structure confined over the AR, the multiple eruptions were puzzling. Our investigation reveals that this event exhibits several properties distinct from other eruptions associated with magnetic fan structures: (i) a long filament encirclingmore » the AR was present before the eruptions; (ii) expansion of the open–closed boundary (OCB) of the field lines after each eruption was suggestive of the growing fan-dome structure, and (iii) the ribbons inside the closed magnetic polarity inversion line evolved in response to the expanding OCB. It thus appears that in spite of multiple eruptions the fan-dome structure remained undamaged, and the closing back field lines after each eruption rather reinforced the fan-dome structure. We argue that the multiple eruptions could occur in this AR in spite of its confined magnetic structure because the filament encircling the AR was adequate for slipping through the magnetic separatrix to minimize the damage to its overlying fan-dome structure. The result of this study provides a new insight into the productivity of eruptions from a confined magnetic structure.« less

A Study of a Compound Solar Eruption with Two Consecutive Erupting Magnetic Structures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dhakal, Suman K.; Chintzoglou, Georgios; Zhang, Jie

2018-06-01

We report a study of a compound solar eruption that was associated with two consecutively erupting magnetic structures and correspondingly two distinct peaks, during impulsive phase, of an M-class flare (M8.5). Simultaneous multi-viewpoint observations from SDO, GOES and STEREO-A show that this compound eruption originated from two pre-existing sigmoidal magnetic structures lying along the same polarity inversion line. Observations of the associated pre-existing filaments further show that these magnetic structures are lying one on top of the other, separated by 12 Mm in height, in a so-called “double-decker” configuration. The high-lying magnetic structure became unstable and erupted first, appearing as an expanding hot channel seen at extreme ultraviolet wavelengths. About 12 minutes later, the low-lying structure also started to erupt and moved at an even faster speed compared to the high-lying one. As a result, the two erupting structures interacted and merged with each other, appearing as a single coronal mass ejection in the outer corona. We find that the double-decker configuration is likely caused by the persistent shearing motion and flux cancellation along the source active region’s strong-gradient polarity inversion line. The successive destabilization of these two separate but closely spaced magnetic structures, possibly in the form of magnetic flux ropes, led to a compound solar eruption. The study of the compound eruption provides a unique opportunity to reveal the formation process, initiation, and evolution of complex eruptive structures in solar active regions.

Flux Cancelation: The Key to Solar Eruptions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Panesar, Navdeep K.; Sterling, Alphonse; Moore, Ronald; Chakrapani, Prithi; Innes, Davina; Schmit, Don; Tiwari, Sanjiv

2017-01-01

Solar coronal jets are magnetically channeled eruptions that occur in all types of solar environments (e.g. active regions, quiet-Sun regions and coronal holes). Recent studies show that coronal jets are driven by the eruption of small-scare filaments (minifilaments). Once the eruption is underway magnetic reconnection evidently makes the jet spire and the bright emission in the jet base. However, the triggering mechanism of these eruptions and the formation mechanism of the pre-jet minifilaments are still open questions. In this talk, mainly using SDOAIA and SDOHIM data, first I will address the question: what triggers the jet-driving minifilament eruptions in different solar environments (coronal holes, quiet regions, active regions)? Then I will talk about the magnetic field evolution that produces the pre-jet minifilaments. By examining pre-jet evolutionary changes in line-of-sight HMI magnetograms while examining concurrent EUV images of coronal and transition-region emission, we find clear evidence that flux cancelation is the main process that builds pre-jet minifilaments, and is also the main process that triggers the eruptions. I will also present results from our ongoing work indicating that jet-driving minifilament eruptions are analogous to larger-scare filament eruptions that make flares and CMEs. We find that persistent flux cancellation at the neutral line of large-scale filaments often triggers their eruptions. From our observations we infer that flux cancelation is the fundamental process from the buildup and triggering of solar eruptions of all sizes.

Flux Cancelation: The Key to Solar Eruptions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Panesar, Navdeep K.; Sterling, Alphonse; Moore, Ronald; Chakrapani, Prithi; Innes, Davina; Schmit, Don; Tiwari, Sanjiv

2017-01-01

Solar coronal jets are magnetically channeled eruptions that occur in all types of solar environments (e.g. active regions, quiet-Sun regions and coronal holes). Recent studies show that coronal jets are driven by the eruption of small-scale filaments (minifilaments). Once the eruption is underway magnetic reconnection evidently makes the jet spire and the bright emission in the jet base. However, the triggering mechanism of these eruptions and the formation mechanism of the pre-jet minifilaments are still open questions. In this talk, mainly using SDO/AIA and SDO/HMI data, first I will address the question: what triggers the jet-driving minifilament eruptions in different solar environments (coronal holes, quiet regions, active regions)? Then I will talk about the magnetic field evolution that produces the pre-jet minifilaments. By examining pre-jet evolutionary changes in line-of-sight HMI magnetograms while examining concurrent EUV images of coronal and transition-region emission, we find clear evidence that flux cancellation is the main process that builds pre-jet minifilaments, and is also the main process that triggers the eruptions. I will also present results from our ongoing work indicating that jet-driving minifilament eruptions are analogous to larger-scale filament eruptions that make flares and CMEs. We find that persistent flux cancellation at the neutral line of large-scale filaments often triggers their eruptions. From our observations we infer that flux cancellation is the fundamental process for the buildup and triggering of solar eruptions of all sizes.

Insights on volcanic behaviour from the 2015 July 23-24 T-phase signals generated by eruptions at Kick-'em-Jenny Submarine Volcano, Grenada, Lesser Antilles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dondin, F. J. Y.; Latchman, J. L.; Robertson, R. E. A.; Lynch, L.; Stewart, R.; Smith, P.; Ramsingh, C.; Nath, N.; Ramsingh, H.; Ash, C.

2015-12-01

Kick-'em-Jenny volcano (KeJ) is the only known active submarine volcano in the Lesser Antilles Arc. Since 1939, the year it revealed itself, and until the volcano-seismic unrest of 2015 July 11-25 , the volcano has erupted 12 times. Only two eruptions breached the surface: 1939, 1974. The volcano has an average eruption cycle of about 10-11 years. Excluding the Montserrat, Soufrière Hills, KeJ is the most active volcano in the Lesser Antilles arc. The University of the West Indies, Seismic Research Centre (SRC) has been monitoring KeJ since 1953. On July 23 and 24 at 1:42 am and 0:02 am local time, respectively, the SRC recorded T-phase signals , considered to have been generated by KeJ. Both signals were recorded at seismic stations in and north of Grenada: SRC seismic stations as well as the French volcano observatories in Guadeloupe and Martinique, Montserrat Volcano Observatory, and the Puerto Rico Seismic Network. These distant recordings, along with the experience of similar observations in previous eruptions, allowed the SRC to confirm that two explosive eruptions occurred in this episode at KeJ. Up to two days after the second eruption, when aerial surveillance was done, there was no evidence of activity at the surface. During the instrumental era, eruptions of the KeJ have been identified from T-phases recorded at seismic stations from Trinidad, in the south, to Puerto Rico, in the north. In the 2015 July eruption episode, the seismic station in Trinidad did not record T-phases associated with the KeJ eruptions. In this study we compare the T-phase signals of 2015 July with those recorded in KeJ eruptions up to 1974 to explore possible causative features for the T-phase recording pattern in KeJ eruptions. In particular, we investigate the potential role played by the Sound Fixing and Ranging (SOFAR) layer in influencing the absence of the T-phase on the Trinidad seismic station during this eruption.

Multiple coincident eruptive seismic tremor sources during the 2014-2015 eruption at Holuhraun, Iceland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eibl, Eva P. S.; Bean, Christopher J.; Jónsdóttir, Ingibjörg; Höskuldsson, Armann; Thordarson, Thorvaldur; Coppola, Diego; Witt, Tanja; Walter, Thomas R.

2017-04-01

We analyze eruptive tremor during one of the largest effusive eruptions in historical times in Iceland (2014/2015 Holuhraun eruption). Seismic array recordings are compared with effusion rates deduced from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer recordings and ground video monitoring data and lead to the identification of three coexisting eruptive tremor sources. This contrasts other tremor studies that generally link eruptive tremor to only one source usually associated with the vent. The three sources are (i) a source that is stable in back azimuth and shows bursts with ramp-like decrease in amplitude at the beginning of the eruption: we link it to a process below the open vents where the bursts correlate with the opening of new vents and temporary increases in the lava fountaining height; (ii) a source moving by a few degrees per month while the tremor amplitude suddenly increases and decreases: back azimuth and slowness correlate with the growing margins of the lava flow field, whilst new contact with a river led to fast increases of the tremor amplitude; and (iii) a source moving by up to 25° southward in 4 days that cannot be related to any observed surface activity and might be linked to intrusions. We therefore suggest that eruptive tremor amplitudes/energies are used with caution when estimating eruptive volumes, effusion rates, or the eruption explosivity as multiple sources can coexist during the eruption phase. Our results suggest that arrays can monitor both the growth of a lava flow field and the activity in the vents.

Rapid ascent of rhyolitic magma at Chaitén volcano, Chile.

PubMed

Castro, Jonathan M; Dingwell, Donald B

2009-10-08

Rhyolite magma has fuelled some of the Earth's largest explosive volcanic eruptions. Our understanding of these events is incomplete, however, owing to the previous lack of directly observed eruptions. Chaitén volcano, in Chile's northern Patagonia, erupted rhyolite magma unexpectedly and explosively on 1 May 2008 (ref. 2). Chaitén residents felt earthquakes about 24 hours before ash fell in their town and the eruption escalated into a Plinian column. Although such brief seismic forewarning of a major explosive basaltic eruption has been documented, it is unprecedented for silicic magmas. As precursory volcanic unrest relates to magma migration from the storage region to the surface, the very short pre-eruptive warning at Chaitén probably reflects very rapid magma ascent through the sub-volcanic system. Here we present petrological and experimental data that indicate that the hydrous rhyolite magma at Chaitén ascended very rapidly, with velocities of the order of one metre per second. Such rapid ascent implies a transit time from storage depths greater than five kilometres to the near surface in about four hours. This result has implications for hazard mitigation because the rapidity of ascending rhyolite means that future eruptions may provide little warning.

Lava flow hazards-An impending threat at Miyakejima volcano, Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cappello, Annalisa; Geshi, Nobuo; Neri, Marco; Del Negro, Ciro

2015-12-01

The majority of the historic eruptions recorded at Miyakejima volcano were fissure eruptions that occurred on the flanks of the volcano. During the last 1100 years, 17 fissure eruptions have been reported with a mean interval of about 76-78 years. In the last century, the mean interval between fissure eruptions decreased to 21-22 years, increasing significantly the threat of lava flow inundations to people and property. Here we quantify the lava flow hazards posed by effusive eruptions in Miyakejima by combining field data, numerical simulations and probability analysis. Our analysis is the first to assess both the spatiotemporal probability of vent opening, which highlights the areas most likely to host a new eruption, and the lava flow hazard, which shows the probabilities of lava-flow inundation in the next 50 years. Future eruptive vents are expected in the vicinity of the Hatchodaira caldera, radiating from the summit of the volcano toward the costs. Areas more likely to be threatened by lava flows are Ako and Kamitsuki villages, as well as Miike port and Miyakejima airport. Thus, our results can be useful for risk evaluation, investment decisions, and emergency response preparation.

Volcanology: Lessons learned from Synthetic Aperture Radar imagery

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pinel, Virginie; Poland, Michael P.; Hooper, Andy

2014-01-01

Twenty years of continuous Earth observation by satellite SAR have resulted in numerous new insights into active volcanism, including a better understanding of subsurface magma storage and transport, deposition of volcanic materials on the surface, and the structure and development of volcanic edifices. This massive archive of data has resulted in fundamental leaps in our understanding of how volcanoes work – for example, identifying magma accumulation at supposedly quiescent volcanoes, even in remote areas or in the absence of ground-based data. In addition, global compilations of volcanic activity facilitate comparison of deformation behavior between different volcanic arcs and statistical evaluation of the strong link between deformation and eruption. SAR data are also increasingly used in timely hazard evaluation thanks to decreases in data latency and growth in processing and analysis techniques. The existing archive of SAR imagery is on the cusp of being enhanced by a new generation of satellite SAR missions, in addition to ground-based and airborne SAR systems, which will provide enhanced temporal and spatial resolution, broader geographic coverage, and improved availability of data to the scientific community. Now is therefore an opportune time to review the contributions of SAR imagery to volcano science, monitoring, and hazard mitigation, and to explore the future potential for SAR in volcanology. Provided that the ever-growing volume of SAR data can be managed effectively, we expect the future application of SAR data to expand from being a research tool for analyzing volcanic activity after the fact, to being a monitoring and research tool capable of imaging a wide variety of processes on different temporal and spatial scales as those processes are occurring. These data can then be used to develop new models of how volcanoes work and to improve quantitative forecasts of volcanic activity as a means of mitigating risk from future eruptions.

School-community collaboration in disaster education in a primary school near Merapi volcano in Java Island

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tuswadi, Takehiro, Hayashi

2016-05-01

This paper describes our latest innovation in implementation of school-community collaboration in disaster education at Sekolah Dasar Negeri 1 Banaran, located in Cangkringan district of Sleman regency, as high-risk area of having impacts from Merapi eruption. The collaboration between school and local communities in an integrated disaster prevention lesson provides a space for students to not only obtain important information and knowledge about natural disasters through their teacher in the classroom but also gain important knowledge directly from the people who live around the school. Through this study, students are taught to be sensitive to utilize the resources in their nearest environment to support the process and the results of their learning about survival in a disaster prone area. Many students have not well understood relation between earthquake and volcanic eruption. Result of student groups' interview to a number of local community members showed that (1) In 2010 Merapi eruptions, from 8 residents, 5 of them, together with their family members were staying at home and getting panic while 3 other residents had already evacuated. (2) Five residents reported no one in their village was killed although some houses were damaged. (3) For anticipating future eruption, the residents confessed to quickly follow the government for evacuation by preparing in advance the transportation, masks, their own precious goods and important documents. From the result of the groups' report during discussion activities in the class, it was revealed that the students are aware of immediate evacuation as the best way to keep themselves safe from eruption. They also understood things to bring for evacuation including maskers.

Precursory diffuse CO2 and H2S emission signatures of the 2011-2012 El Hierro submarine eruption, Canary Islands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pérez, Nemesio M.; Padilla, Germán D.; Padrón, Eleazar; Hernández, Pedro A.; Melián, Gladys V.; Barrancos, José; Dionis, Samara; Nolasco, Dácil; Rodríguez, Fátima; Calvo, David; Hernández, Íñigo

2012-08-01

On October 12, 2011, a submarine eruption began 2 km off the coast of La Restinga, south of El Hierro Island. CO2 and H2S soil efflux were continuously measured during the period of volcanic unrest by using the accumulation chamber method at two different geochemical stations, HIE01 and HIE07. Recorded CO2 and H2S effluxes showed precursory signals that preceded the submarine eruption. Beginning in late August, the CO2 efflux time series started increasing at a relatively constant rate over one month, reaching a maximum of 19 gm-2d-1 one week before the onset of the submarine volcanic eruption. The H2S efflux time series at HIE07 showed a pulse in H2S emission just one day before the initiation of the submarine eruption, reaching peak values of 42 mg m-2 d-1, 10 times the average H2S efflux recorded during the observation period. Since CO2 and H2S effluxes are strongly influenced by external factors, we applied a multiple regression analysis to remove their contribution. A statistical analysis showed that the long-term trend of the filtered data is well correlated with the seismic energy. We find that these geochemical stations are important monitoring sites for evaluating the volcanic activity of El Hierro and that they demonstrate the potential of applying continuous monitoring of soil CO2 and H2S efflux to improve and optimize the detection of early warning signals of future volcanic unrest episodes at El Hierro. Continuous diffuse degassing studies would likely prove useful for monitoring other volcanoes during unrest episodes.

Volcano Hazards Assessment for Medicine Lake Volcano, Northern California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Donnelly-Nolan, Julie M.; Nathenson, Manuel; Champion, Duane E.; Ramsey, David W.; Lowenstern, Jacob B.; Ewert, John W.

2007-01-01

Medicine Lake volcano (MLV) is a very large shield-shaped volcano located in northern California where it forms part of the southern Cascade Range of volcanoes. It has erupted hundreds of times during its half-million-year history, including nine times during the past 5,200 years, most recently 950 years ago. This record represents one of the highest eruptive frequencies among Cascade volcanoes and includes a wide variety of different types of lava flows and at least two explosive eruptions that produced widespread fallout. Compared to those of a typical Cascade stratovolcano, eruptive vents at MLV are widely distributed, extending 55 km north-south and 40 km east-west. The total area covered by MLV lavas is >2,000 km2, about 10 times the area of Mount St. Helens, Washington. Judging from its long eruptive history and its frequent eruptions in recent geologic time, MLV will erupt again. Although the probability of an eruption is very small in the next year (one chance in 3,600), the consequences of some types of possible eruptions could be severe. Furthermore, the documented episodic behavior of the volcano indicates that once it becomes active, the volcano could continue to erupt for decades, or even erupt intermittently for centuries, and very likely from multiple vents scattered across the edifice. Owing to its frequent eruptions, explosive nature, and proximity to regional infrastructure, MLV has been designated a 'high threat volcano' by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Volcano Early Warning System assessment. Volcanic eruptions are typically preceded by seismic activity, but with only two seismometers located high on the volcano and no other USGS monitoring equipment in place, MLV is at present among the most poorly monitored Cascade volcanoes.

Unexpected hazards from tephra fallouts at Mt Etna: The 23 November 2013 lava fountain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andronico, Daniele; Scollo, Simona; Cristaldi, Antonio

2015-10-01

Hundreds of paroxysmal episodes and a few long-lasting ash-emissions eruptions make Mt. Etna, in Italy, one of the most productive basaltic volcanoes in the world over recent years. This frequent explosive activity certainly gives volcanologists plenty of stimulating scientific material for study. Volcanic hazard from tephra fallout associated with lava fountains is still an issue that has not been fully assessed, albeit having to face this scenario several times in 2013. The 23 November 2013 lava fountain was exceptionally intense despite the short duration of the paroxysmal phase (< 1 h). Abundant decimetric-sized bombs fell within the first 5-6 km from the vent, and a macroscopically thicker and coarser tephra deposit than usual formed between 5 and 25 km; in addition, ash was reported to fall up to distances of 400 km. The analysis of fallout deposit provided a total erupted mass of 1.3 ± 1.1 × 109 kg (for a mass eruption rate of 4.5 ± 3.6 × 105 kg/s), in agreement with the value of 2.4 × 109 kg estimated by modeling. Grain-size distribution of samples shows poor sorting at least up to 25 km from the vent. By comparing dispersal, sedimentological features and physical parameters of the fallout deposit with other lava fountains of Etna, the 23 November 2013 episode may well be one of the largest events of the 21st Century in terms of eruption column height, total erupted mass and mass eruption rate. Furthermore, the impact of tephra on the territory was so high as to make it opportune to introduce a distinction, within the class of lava fountains, between small- and large-scale episodes. This classification can be a starting point for hazard assessment and help prevent the hazards from large-scale lava fountains at Etna in the future.

Are Avellino (4365 cal BP) and Pompeii twin plinian eruptions? Pre-eruptive constraints and degassing history

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boudon, Georges; Balcone-Boissard, Hélène; Villemant, Benoît.; Ucciani, Guillaume; Cioni, Raffaello

2010-05-01

Somma-Vesuvius activity started 35 ky ago and is characterized by numerous eruptions of variable composition and eruptive style, sometimes interrupted by long periods of unrest. The main explosive eruptions are represented by four plinian eruptions: Pomici di Base eruption (22 cal ky), Mercato (~8900 cal BP), Avellino (4365 cal BP) and Pompeii (79 AD). The 79 AD eruption embodies the most famous eruption since it's responsible of the destruction of Pompeii and Herculanum and it's the first described eruption. The Avellino eruption represents the last plinian event that preceded the Pompeii eruption. The eruptive sequence is similar to the 79 AD plinian eruption, with an opening phase preceding a main plinian fallout activity which ended by a phreatomagmatic phase. The fallout deposit displays a sharp colour contrast from white to grey pumice, corresponding to a magma composition evolution. We focus our study on the main fallout deposit that we sampled in detail in the Traianello quarry, 9 km North-North East of the crater, to investigate the degassing processes during the eruption, using volatile content and textural observations. Density and vesicularity measurements were obtained on a minimum of 100 pumice clasts sampled in 10 stratigraphic levels in the fallout deposit. On the basis of the density distribution, bulk geochemical data, point analytical measurements on glasses (melt inclusions and residual glass) and textural observations were obtained simultaneously on a minimum of 5 pumice clasts per eruptive unit. The glass composition, in particular the Na/K ratio, evolves from Na-rich phonolite for white pumices to a more K-rich phonolite for grey pumices. The pre-eruptive conditions are constrained by systematic Cl measurements in melt inclusions and matrix glass of pumice clasts. The entire magma was saturated relative to sub-critical fluids (a Cl-rich H2O vapour phase and a brine), with a Cl melt content buffered at ~6000 ppm, and a mean pre-eruptive H2O content depending of the magma composition. Most of the pumices of the different eruptive units show that H2O degassing during the eruption followed a typical closed-system evolution as expected for plinian eruption. Contrary to H2O, Cl was not efficiently degassed during the plinian phase of the eruption: the matrix glass composition remains close to the pre-eruptive content. Compared to the 79AD eruption the degassing processes showed by the whole Avellino plinian phase is more homogeneous and similar to the white pumice phase of the Pompeii eruption whereas the open-system degassing mode identified from the grey pumices of the 79AD eruption is not represented during the Avellino eruption.

Future Gamma-Ray Imaging of Solar Eruptive Events

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shih, Albert

2012-01-01

Solar eruptive events, the combination of large solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs), accelerate ions to tens of Gev and electrons to hundreds of MeV. The energy in accelerated particles can be a significant fraction (up to tens of percent) of the released energy and is roughly equipartitioned between ions and electrons. Observations of the gamma-ray signatures produced by these particles interacting with the ambient solar atmosphere probes the distribution and composition of the accelerated population, as well as the atmospheric parameters and abundances of the atmosphere, ultimately revealing information about the underlying physics. Gamma-ray imaging provided by RHESSI showed that the interacting approx.20 MeV/nucleon ions are confined to flare magnetic loops rather than precipitating from a large CME-associated shock. Furthermore, RHESSI images show a surprising, significant spatial separation between the locations where accelerated ions and electrons are interacting, thus indicating a difference in acceleration or transport processes for the two types of particles. Future gamma-ray imaging observations, with higher sensitivity and greater angular resolution, can investigate more deeply the nature of ion acceleration. The technologies being proven on the Gamma-Ray Imager/Polarimeter for Solar flares (GRIPS), a NASA balloon instrument, are possible approaches for future instrumentation. We discuss the GRIPS instrument and the future of studying this aspect of solar eruptive events.

Effects of lava heating on volatile-rich slopes on Io

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dundas, Colin M.

2017-01-01

The upper crust of Io may be very rich in volatile sulfur and SO2. The surface is also highly volcanically active, and slopes may be warmed by radiant heat from the lava. This is particularly the case in paterae, which commonly host volcanic eruptions and long-lived lava lakes. Paterae slopes are highly variable, but some are greater than 70°. I model the heating of a volatile slope for two end-member cases: instantaneous emplacement of a large sheet flow, and persistent heating by a long-lived lava lake. In general, single flows can briefly raise sulfur to the melting temperature, or drive a modest amount of sublimation of SO2. Persistently lava-covered surfaces will drive much more significant geomorphic effects, with potentially significant sublimation and slope retreat. In addition to the direct effects, heating is likely to weaken slope materials and may trigger mass wasting. Thus, if the upper crust of Io is rich in these volatile species, future missions with high-resolution imaging are likely to observe actively retreating slopes around lava lakes and other locations of frequent eruptions.

Reconstruction and analysis of sub-plinian tephra dispersal during the 1530 A.D. Soufrière (Guadeloupe) eruption: Implications for scenario definition and hazards assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Komorowski, J.-C.; Legendre, Y.; Caron, B.; Boudon, G.

2008-12-01

The last magmatic eruption of Soufrière of Guadeloupe dated at 1530 A.D. (Soufrière eruption) is characterized by an onset with a partial flank-collapse and emplacement of a debris-avalanche that was followed by a sub-plinian VEI 2-3 explosive short-lived eruption (Phase-1) with a column that reached a height between 9 and 12 km producing about 3.9 × 10 6 m 3 DRE (16.3 × 10 6 m 3 bulk) of juvenile products. The column recurrently collapsed generating scoriaceous pyroclastic flows in radiating valleys up to a distance of 5-6 km with a maximum interpolated bulk deposit volume of 11.7 × 10 6 m 3 (5 × 10 6 m 3 DRE). We have used HAZMAP, a numerical simple first-order model of tephra dispersal [Macedonio, G., Costa, A., Longo, A., 2005. A computer model for volcanic ash fallout and assessment of subsequent hazard. Comput. Geosci. 31, 837-845] to reconstruct to a first approximation the potential dispersal of tephra and associated tephra mass loadings generated by the sub-plinian Phase 1 of the 1530 A.D. eruption. We have tested our model on a deterministic average dry season wind profile that best-fits the available data as well as on a set of randomly selected wind profiles over a 5 year interval that allows the elaboration of probabilistic maps for the exceedance of specific tephra mass load thresholds. Results show that in the hypothesis of a future 1530 A.D. scenario, populated areas to a distance of 3-4 km west-southwest of the vent could be subjected to a static load pressure between 2 and 10 kPa in case of wet tephra, susceptible to cause variable degrees of roof damage. Our results provide volcanological input parameters for scenario and event-tree definition, for assessing volcanic risks and evaluating their impact in case of a future sub-plinian eruption which could affect up to 70 000 people in southern Basse-Terre island and the region. They also provide a framework to aid decision-making concerning land management and development. A sub-plinian eruption is the most likely magmatic scenario in case of a future eruption of this volcano which has shown, since 1992, increasing signs of low-energy seismic, thermal, and acid degassing unrest without significant deformation.

Russian eruption warning systems for aviation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Neal, C.; Girina, O.; Senyukov, S.; Rybin, A.; Osiensky, J.; Izbekov, P.; Ferguson, G.

2009-01-01

More than 65 potentially active volcanoes on the Kamchatka Peninsula and the Kurile Islands pose a substantial threat to aircraft on the Northern Pacific (NOPAC), Russian Trans-East (RTE), and Pacific Organized Track System (PACOTS) air routes. The Kamchatka Volcanic Eruption Response Team (KVERT) monitors and reports on volcanic hazards to aviation for Kamchatka and the north Kuriles. KVERT scientists utilize real-time seismic data, daily satellite views of the region, real-time video, and pilot and field reports of activity to track and alert the aviation industry of hazardous activity. Most Kurile Island volcanoes are monitored by the Sakhalin Volcanic Eruption Response Team (SVERT) based in Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk. SVERT uses daily moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite images to look for volcanic activity along this 1,250-km chain of islands. Neither operation is staffed 24 h per day. In addition, the vast majority of Russian volcanoes are not monitored seismically in real-time. Other challenges include multiple time-zones and language differences that hamper communication among volcanologists and meteorologists in the US, Japan, and Russia who share the responsibility to issue official warnings. Rapid, consistent verification of explosive eruptions and determination of cloud heights remain significant technical challenges. Despite these difficulties, in more than a decade of frequent eruptive activity in Kamchatka and the northern Kuriles, no damaging encounters with volcanic ash from Russian eruptions have been recorded. ?? Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2009.

The Avellino 3780-yr-B.P. catastrophe as a worst-case scenario for a future eruption at Vesuvius

PubMed Central

Mastrolorenzo, Giuseppe; Petrone, Pierpaolo; Pappalardo, Lucia; Sheridan, Michael F.

2006-01-01

A volcanic catastrophe even more devastating than the famous anno Domini 79 Pompeii eruption occurred during the Old Bronze Age at Vesuvius. The 3780-yr-B.P. Avellino plinian eruption produced an early violent pumice fallout and a late pyroclastic surge sequence that covered the volcano surroundings as far as 25 km away, burying land and villages. Here we present the reconstruction of this prehistoric catastrophe and its impact on the Bronze Age culture in Campania, drawn from an interdisciplinary volcanological and archaeoanthropological study. Evidence shows that a sudden, en masse evacuation of thousands of people occurred at the beginning of the eruption, before the last destructive plinian column collapse. Most of the fugitives likely survived, but the desertification of the total habitat due to the huge eruption size caused a social–demographic collapse and the abandonment of the entire area for centuries. Because an event of this scale is capable of devastating a broad territory that includes the present metropolitan district of Naples, it should be considered as a reference for the worst eruptive scenario at Vesuvius. PMID:16537390

Volcanic risk metrics at Mt Ruapehu, New Zealand: some background to a probabilistic eruption forecasting scheme and a cost/benefit analysis at an open conduit volcano

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jolly, Gill; Sandri, Laura; Lindsay, Jan; Scott, Brad; Sherburn, Steve; Jolly, Art; Fournier, Nico; Keys, Harry; Marzocchi, Warner

2010-05-01

The Bayesian Event Tree for Eruption Forecasting software (BET_EF) is a probabilistic model based on an event tree scheme that was created specifically to compute long- and short-term probabilities of different outcomes (volcanic unrest, magmatic unrest, eruption, vent location and eruption size) at long-time dormant and routinely monitored volcanoes. It is based on the assumption that upward movements of magma in a closed conduit volcano will produce detectable changes in the monitored parameters at the surface. In this perspective, the goal of BET_EF is to compute probabilities by merging information from geology, models, past data and present monitoring measurements, through a Bayesian inferential method. In the present study, we attempt to apply BET_EF to Mt Ruapehu, a very active and well-monitored volcano exhibiting the typical features of open conduit volcanoes. In such conditions, current monitoring at the surface is not necessarily able to detect short term changes at depth that may occur only seconds to minutes before an eruption. This results in so-called "blue sky eruptions" of Mt Ruapehu (for example in September 2007), that are volcanic eruptions apparently not preceded by any presently detectable signal in the current monitoring. A further complication at Mt Ruapehu arises from the well-developed hydrothermal system and the permanent crater lake sitting on top of the magmatic conduit. Both the hydrothermal system and crater lake may act to mask or change monitoring signals (if present) that magma produces deeper in the edifice. Notwithstanding these potential drawbacks, we think that an attempt to apply BET_EF at Ruapehu is worthwhile, for several reasons. First, with the exception of a few "blue sky" events, monitoring data at Mt Ruapehu can be helpful in forecasting major events, especially if a large amount of magma is intruded into the edifice and becomes available for phreatomagmatic or magmatic eruptions, as for example in 1995-96. Secondly, in setting up BET_EF for Mt Ruapehu we are forced to define quantitatively what the background activity is. This will result in a quantitative evaluation of what changes in long time monitored parameters may influence the probability of future eruptions. The slopes of Mt Ruapehu host the largest ski area in North Island, New Zealand. Lahars have been generated as a result of several eruptions in the last 50 years, and some of these have reached the ski runs in a very short time frame (around 90 seconds from the beginning of the eruption). In the light of these potentially hazardous lahars, we use the output probabilities provided by BET_EF in a practical and rational decision scheme recently proposed by Marzocchi and Woo (2009) based on a cost/benefit analysis (CBA). In such scheme, a C/L ratio is computed, based on the costs (C) of practical mitigation actions to reduce risk (e.g., a public warning scheme and other means of raising awareness, and a call for a temporary and/or partial closure of the ski area) and on the potential loss (L) if no mitigation action is taken and an eruption occurs causing lahars down the ski fields. By comparing the probability of eruption-driven lahars and the C/L ratio, it is possible to define the most rational mitigation actions that can be taken to reduce the risk to skiers, snowboarders and staff on skifield. As BET_EF probability of eruption changes dynamically as updated monitoring data are received, the authorities can decide, at any specific point in time, what is the best action according to the current monitoring of the volcano. In this respect, CBA represents a bridge linking scientific output (probabilities) and Decision Makers (practical mitigation actions).

Magma migration and resupply during the 1974 summit eruptions of Kilauea Volcano, Hawaii

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lockwood, John P.; Tilling, Robert I.; Holcomb, Robin T.; Klein, Fred W.; Okamura, Arnold T.; Peterson, Donald W.

1999-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to present a complete account of contrasting yet related eruptions, thus filling a gap in the published narratives of recent activity of Kilauea; and to examine their significance within a broader context of regional magmatic and eruptive dynamics. We have gained a historical perspective and can view these three eruptions within a multidecade context of the eruptive behavior of not only Kilauea, but also of the adjacent Mauna Loa.

A retrospective study on acute health effects due to volcanic ash exposure during the eruption of Mount Etna (Sicily) in 2002

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Mount Etna, located in the eastern part of Sicily (Italy), is the highest and most active volcano in Europe. During the sustained eruption that occurred in October-November 2002 huge amounts of volcanic ash fell on a densely populated area south-east of Mount Etna in Catania province. The volcanic ash fall caused extensive damage to infrastructure utilities and distress in the exposed population. This retrospective study evaluates whether or not there was an association between ash fall and acute health effects in exposed local communities. Methods We collected the number and type of visits to the emergency department (ED) for diseases that could be related to volcanic ash exposure in public hospitals of the Province of Catania between October 20 and November 7, 2002. We compared the magnitude of differences in ED visits between the ash exposure period in 2002 and the same period of the previous year 2001. Results We observed a significant increase of ED visits for acute respiratory and cardiovascular diseases, and ocular disturbances during the ash exposure time period. Conclusions There was a positive association between exposure to volcanic ash from the 2002 eruption of Mount Etna and acute health effects in the Catania residents. This study documents the need for public health preparedness and response initiatives to protect nearby populations from exposure to ash fall from future eruptions of Mount Etna. PMID:23924394

Temporal Evolution of Surface Deformation and Magma Sources at Pacaya Volcano, Guatemala Revealed by InSAR

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wnuk, K.; Wauthier, C.

2016-12-01

Pacaya Volcano, Guatemala is a persistently active volcano whose western flank is unstable. Despite continuous activity since 1961, a lack of high temporal resolution geodetic surveying has prevented detailed modeling of Pacaya's underlying magmatic plumbing system. A new, temporally dense dataset of Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) RADARSAT-2 images, spanning December 2012 to March 2014, shows magmatic deformation before and during major eruptions in January and March 2014. Inverse modeling of InSAR surface displacements suggest that three magma bodies are responsible for observed deformation: (1) a 3.7 km deep spherical reservoir located northwest of the summit, (2) a 0.4 km deep spherical source located directly west of the summit, and (3) a shallow dike below the summit that provides the primary transport pathway for erupted materials. Periods of heightened activity are brought on by magma pulses at depth, which result in rapid inflation of the edifice. We observe an intrusion cycle at Pacaya that consists of deflation of one or both magma reservoirs followed by dike intrusion. Intrusion volumes are proportional to reservoir volume loss, and do not always result in an eruption. Periods of increased activity culminate with larger dike fed eruptions. Large eruptions are followed by inter eruptive periods marked by a decrease in crater explosions and a lack of deformation. A full understanding of magmatic processes at Pacaya is required to assess potential impacts on other aspects of the volcano such as the unstable western flank. Co-eruptive flank motion appears to have initiated a new stage of volcanic rifting at Pacaya defined by repeated NW-SE dike intrusions. This creates a positive feedback relationship whereby magmatic forcing from eruptive dike intrusions induces flank motion

Air traffic disturbance due to the 2010 Merapi volcano eruption

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Picquout, A.; Lavigne, F.; Mei, E. T. W.; Grancher, D.; Noer, Cholik; Vidal, C. M.; Hadmoko, D. S.

2013-07-01

The 2010 Merapi eruption was exceptional on several levels (intensity of the eruption, destructions, casualties…) and for the first time, created major air traffic disruptions in Yogyakarta, leading to the closure of the airport. Some companies suspended their flights, others adapted to the crisis by transferring their flights to other airports, and some companies even continued to fly despite the risks involved. Four major phases emerged; first, a few days corresponding to the rise of the activity of the eruption, a second corresponding to the start of the eruption and first ash emissions. Then, a third peak marked by the eruption which led to the closure of the Yogyakarta airport for 15 days and finally, a fourth one-month-long phase where airport activity returned to normal. We studied the evolution of disturbances on the field and the correlation between volcanic activity and flight cancelations. Adaptations between airports were observed, Adisucipto Airport (Yogyakarta) transferred several of its flights to the Adi Soemarmo of Surakarta airport and it transferred its flights to Ahmad Yani Airport in Semarang and Juanda in Surabaya. Moreover, the eruption disrupted the pilgrimage to Mecca for thousands of Muslims who had waited and saved for years to be able to go. Nevertheless, the organizers coped with the crisis by changing departure airports for the pilgrimage. This study allowed us to understand the impacts of a major Merapi eruption on air transport, from the onset of ash emissions until the late disturbances.

Studying the Formation and Evolution of Eruptive Solar Magnetic Flux Ropes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Linton, M.

2017-12-01

Solar magnetic eruptions are dramatic sources of solar activity, and dangerous sources of space weather hazards. Many of these eruptions take the form of magnetic flux ropes, i.e., magnetic fieldlines wrapping around a core magnetic flux tube. Investigating the processes which form these flux ropes both prior to and during eruption, and investigating their evolution after eruption, can give us a critical window into understanding the sources of and processes involved in these eruptions. This presentation will discuss modeling and observational investigations into these various phases of flux rope formation, eruption, and evolution, and will discuss how these different explorations can be used to develop a more complete picture of erupting flux rope dynamics. This work is funded by the NASA Living with a Star program.

Synergistic Use of Thermal Infrared Field and Satellite Data: Eruption Detection, Monitoring and Science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramsey, Michael

2015-04-01

The ASTER-based observational success of active volcanic processes early in the Terra mission later gave rise to a funded NASA program designed to both increase the number of ASTER scenes following an eruption and perform the ground-based science needed to validate that data. The urgent request protocol (URP) system for ASTER grew out of this initial study and has now operated in conjunction with and the support of the Alaska Volcano Observatory, the University of Alaska Fairbanks, the University of Hawaii, the USGS Land Processes DAAC, and the ASTER science team. The University of Pittsburgh oversees this rapid response/sensor-web system, which until 2011 had focused solely on the active volcanoes in the North Pacific region. Since that time, it has been expanded to operate globally with AVHRR and MODIS and now ASTER visible and thermal infrared (TIR) data are being acquired at numerous active volcanoes around the world. This program relies on the increased temporal resolution of AVHRR/MODIS midwave infrared data to trigger the next available ASTER observation, which results in ASTER data as frequently as every 2-5 days. For many new targets such as Mt. Etna, the URP has increased the observational frequency by as much 50%. Examples of these datasets will be presented, which have been used for operational response to new eruptions as well as longer-term scientific studies. These studies include emplacement of new lava flows, detection of endogenous dome growth, and interpretation of hazardous dome collapse events. As a means to validate the ASTER TIR data and capture higher-resolution images, a new ground-based sensor has recently been developed that consists of standard FLIR camera modified with wavelength filters similar to the ASTER bands. Data from this instrument have been acquired of the lava lake at Kilauea and reveal differences in emissivity between molten and cooled surfaces confirming prior laboratory results and providing important constraints on lava flow propagation models. In summary, this operational/scientific program utilizing the unique properties of TIR data from ASTER has shown the potential for providing innovative and integrated synoptic measurements of volcanic science, eruptions and eruption-related hazards globally. Now, this long-term archive of volcanic image data is being mined to provide statistics on the expectations of future high-repeat TIR data such as proposed for the NASA HyspIRI mission.

Geology and radiometric dating of Quaternary monogenetic volcanism in the western Zacapu lacustrine basin (Michoacán, México): implications for archeology and future hazard evaluations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reyes-Guzmán, Nanci; Siebe, Claus; Chevrel, Magdalena Oryaëlle; Guilbaud, Marie-Noëlle; Salinas, Sergio; Layer, Paul

2018-02-01

The Zacapu lacustrine basin is located in the north-central part of the Michoacán-Guanajuato volcanic field (MGVF), which constitutes the west-central segment of the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt. Geological mapping of a 395 km2 quadrangle encompassing the western margin of the basin, 40Ar/39Ar and 14C radiometric dating, whole-rock chemical and petrographic analyses of volcanic products provide information on the stratigraphy, erupted volumes, age, and composition of the volcanoes. Although volcanism in the MGVF initiated since at least 5 Ma ago, rocks in the western Zacapu lacustrine basin are all younger than 2.1 Ma. A total of 47 volcanoes were identified and include 19 viscous lava flows ( 40 vol.%), 17 scoria cones with associated lava flows ( 36 vol.%), seven lava shields ( 15 vol.%), three domes ( 6 vol.%), and one maar ( 2 vol.%). Erupted products are dominantly andesites with 42 km3 ( 86 vol.%) followed by 4 km3 of dacite ( 8 vol.%), 1.4 km3 of basaltic trachy-andesite ( 3 vol.%), 1 km3 of basaltic andesite ( 2 vol.%), and 0.14 km3 of rhyolite ( 0.3 vol.%). Eruptive centers are commonly aligned ENE-WSW following the direction of the regional Cuitzeo Fault System. Over time, the high frequency of eruptions and consequent accumulation of lavas and pyroclastic materials pushed the lake's shore stepwise toward the southeast. Eruptions appear to have clustered through time. One cluster occurred during the Late Pleistocene between 27,000 and 21,300 BC when four volcanoes erupted. A second cluster formed during the Late Holocene, between 1500 BC and AD 900, when four closely spaced monogenetic vents erupted forming thick viscous `a'a to blocky flows on the margin of the lacustrine flats. For still poorly understood reasons, these apparently inhospitable lava flows were attractive to human settlement and eventually became one of the most densely populated heartlands of the pre-Hispanic Tarascan civilization. With an average eruption recurrence interval of 900 years during the Late Holocene the western Zacapu lacustrine basin is one of the most active areas in the MGVF and should hence be of focal interest for regional volcanic risk evaluations.

Short-term seismic precursors to Icelandic eruptions 1973-2014.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Einarsson, Páll

2018-05-01

Networks of seismographs of high sensitivity have been in use in the vicinity of active volcanoes in Iceland since 1973. During this time 21 confirmed eruptions have occurred and several intrusions where magma did not reach the surface. All these events have been accompanied by characteristic seismic activity. Long-term precursory activity is characterised by low-level, persistent seismicity (months-years), clustered around an inflating magma body. Whether or not a magma accumulation is accompanied by seismicity depends on the tectonic setting, interplate or intraplate, the depth of magma accumulation, the previous history and the state of stress. All eruptions during the time of observation had a detectable short-term seismic precursor marking the time of dike propagation towards the surface. The precursor times varied between 15 minutes and 13 days. In half of the cases the precursor time was less than 2 hours. Three eruptions stand out for their long duration of the immediate precursory activity, Heimaey 1973 with 30 hours, Gjálp 1996 with 34 hours, and Bárðarbunga 2014 with 13 days. In the case of Heimaey the long time is most likely the consequence of the great depth of the magma source, 15-25 km. The Gjálp eruption had a prelude that was unusual in many respects. The long propagation time may have resulted from a complicated triggering scenario involving more than one magma chamber. The Bárðarbunga eruption at Holuhraun issued from the distal end of a dike that took 13 days to propagate laterally for 48 km before it opened to the surface. Out of the 21 detected precursors 14 were noticed soon enough to lead to a public warning of the coming eruption. In 4 additional cases the precursory signal was noticed before the eruption was seen. In only 3 cases was the eruption seen or detected before the seismic precursor was verified.

Prediction of Solar Eruptions Using Filament Metadata

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aggarwal, Ashna; Schanche, Nicole; Reeves, Katharine K.; Kempton, Dustin; Angryk, Rafal

2018-05-01

We perform a statistical analysis of erupting and non-erupting solar filaments to determine the properties related to the eruption potential. In order to perform this study, we correlate filament eruptions documented in the Heliophysics Event Knowledgebase (HEK) with HEK filaments that have been grouped together using a spatiotemporal tracking algorithm. The HEK provides metadata about each filament instance, including values for length, area, tilt, and chirality. We add additional metadata properties such as the distance from the nearest active region and the magnetic field decay index. We compare trends in the metadata from erupting and non-erupting filament tracks to discover which properties present signs of an eruption. We find that a change in filament length over time is the most important factor in discriminating between erupting and non-erupting filament tracks, with erupting tracks being more likely to have decreasing length. We attempt to find an ensemble of predictive filament metadata using a Random Forest Classifier approach, but find the probability of correctly predicting an eruption with the current metadata is only slightly better than chance.

The Past 20,000 Years of Plinian Explosive Activity at Mt Pelée Volcano (Lesser Antilles)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carazzo, G.; Michaud-Dubuy, A.; Kaminski, E. C.; Tait, S.

2017-12-01

Major volcanic hazards in the Lesser Antilles arc include powerful Plinian explosive eruptions that inject ash into the atmosphere and produce dangerous pyroclastic density currents (PDC) on the ground. Reconstructions of past eruptive activities based on stratigraphic records are crucial to assessing specific hazards in this region where large eruptions do not occur frequently. The present study focuses on the dynamics of the last Plinian eruptions of Mount Pelée volcano in Martinique. Previous field-based studies identified 6 major Plinian eruptions over the past 5,000 years but limited information on their dynamics exist, except for the most recent one dated at AD 1300. Based on a new comprehensive field study and physical models of volcanic plumes, we largely improve our knowledge of the number of Plinian eruptions that occurred in Martinique over the past 20,000 years. We also provide a detailed reconstruction of important eruptive parameters such as mass eruption rates, maximum column heights, volumes, and impacted areas. Among the 6 Plinian eruptions newly identified during our field campaign, one is found to have produced voluminous pyroclastic density currents that reached the sea and partially rose as a co-PDC plume above a region that is beyond the existing hazard map. The estimated mass eruption rates for the 12 Plinian eruptions identified over the last 20,000 years range from 107 to 108 kg/s, producing 15-30 km-high Plinian columns, initially stable but ultimately collapsing and forming PDC. Empirical models of deposit thinning suggest that the minimum volume of pyroclastic deposits systematically ranges between 0.1 and 1 km3, corresponding to VEI 4 to 5 events. Archaeological evidences suggest that the impact of several eruptions forced the first Caribbean inhabitants to flee to other islands for decades.

The recent pumice eruptions of Mt. Pelée volcano, Martinique. Part I: Depositional sequences, description of pumiceous deposits

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Traineau, Hervé; Westercamp, Denis; Bardintzeff, Jacques-Marie; Miskovsky, Jean-Claude

1989-08-01

Mount Pelée is one of the most active volcanoes of the Lesser Antilles arc, with more than twenty eruptions over the last 5000 years. Both nuée ardente-type eruptions, which are well known, and pumice eruptions, although little known, are very common in the stratigraphic record. The four younger pumice eruptions, P4 (2440 y.B.P.), P3 (2010 y.B.P.), P2 (1670 y.B.P.) and P1 (650 y.B.P.) can be used to reconstruct the eruption sequences. The various pumiceous deposits can be described as fine lithic ash layer, Plinian fall deposits, pumice and ash flow deposits with associated ash cloud fall deposits, and pumice surge deposits. Three kinds of depositional sequences have been defined. The distinctions between them are based on the occurrence of an initial Plinian phase and the generation of intraflow pyroclastic surges. The pumice eruptions of Mt. Pelée are small in intensity and magnitude, as expressed by the dispersal of their products and by the total mass of erupted material which is estimated to be less than 1 km 3 in each case. The pumice fall deposits have dispersal characteristics of small Plinian eruptions, close to the sub-Plinian type. Nevertheless, the probability of an occurrence of a new pumice eruption at Mt. Pelée is high, and the widespread distribution of pumice deposits around the volcano suggests that such an eruption is a major volcanic risk during the present stage of activity.

Flux Cancelation: The Key to Solar Eruptions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Panesar, Navdeep K.; Sterling, Alphonse; Moore, Ronald; Chakrapani, Prithi; Innes, Davina; Schmit, Don; Tiwari, Sanjiv

2017-01-01

Solar coronal jets are magnetically channeled eruptions that occur in all types of solar environments (e.g. active regions, quiet-Sun regions and coronal holes). Recent studies show that coronal jets are driven by the eruption of small-scare filaments (minifilaments). Once the eruption is underway magnetic reconnection evidently makes the jet spire and the bright emission in the jet base. However, the triggering mechanism of these eruptions and the formation mechanism of the pre-jet minifilaments are still open questions. In this talk, mainly using SDO/AIA (Solar Dynamics Observatory / Atmospheric Imaging Assembly) and SDO/HIM (Solar Dynamics Observatory / Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager) data, first I will address the question: what triggers the jet-driving minifilament eruptions in different solar environments (coronal holes, quiet regions, active regions)? Then I will talk about the magnetic field evolution that produces the pre-jet minifilaments. By examining pre-jet evolutionary changes in line-of-sight HMI magnetograms while examining concurrent EUV (Extreme Ultra-Violet) images of coronal and transition-region emission, we find clear evidence that flux cancelation is the main process that builds pre-jet minifilaments, and is also the main process that triggers the eruptions. I will also present results from our ongoing work indicating that jet-driving minifilament eruptions are analogous to larger-scare filament eruptions that make flares and CMEs (Coronal Mass Ejections). We find that persistent flux cancellation at the neutral line of large-scale filaments often triggers their eruptions. From our observations we infer that flux cancelation is the fundamental process from the buildup and triggering of solar eruptions of all sizes.

Characterization of pyroclastic deposits and pre-eruptive soils following the 2008 eruption of Kasatochi Island Volcano, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wang, B.; Michaelson, G.; Ping, C.-L.; Plumlee, G.; Hageman, P.

2010-01-01

The 78 August 2008 eruption of Kasatochi Island volcano blanketed the island in newly generated pyroclastic deposits and deposited ash into the ocean and onto nearby islands. Concentrations of water soluble Fe, Cu, and Zn determined from a 1:20 deionized water leachate of the ash were sufficient to provide short-term fertilization of the surface ocean. The 2008 pyroclastic deposits were thicker in concavities at bases of steeper slopes and thinner on steep slopes and ridge crests. By summer 2009, secondary erosion had exposed the pre-eruption soils along gulley walls and in gully bottoms on the southern and eastern slopes, respectively. Topographic and microtopographic position altered the depositional patterns of the pyroclastic flows and resulted in pre-eruption soils being buried by as little as 1 m of ash. The different erosion patterns gave rise to three surfaces on which future ecosystems will likely develop: largely pre-eruptive soils; fresh pyroclastic deposits influenced by shallowly buried, pre-eruptive soil; and thick (>1 m) pyroclastic deposits. As expected, the chemical composition differed between the pyroclastic deposits and the pre-eruptive soils. Pre-eruptive soils hold stocks of C and N important for establishing biota that are lacking in the fresh pyroclastic deposits. The pyroclastic deposits are a source for P and K but have negligible nutrient holding capacity, making these elements vulnerable to leaching loss. Consequently, the pre-eruption soils may also represent an important long-term P and K source. ?? 2010 Regents of the University of Colorado.

Divergent El Niño responses to volcanic eruptions at different latitudes over the past millennium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Fei; Li, Jinbao; Wang, Bin; Liu, Jian; Li, Tim; Huang, Gang; Wang, Zhiyuan

2017-08-01

Detection and attribution of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) responses to radiative forcing perturbation are critical for predicting the future change of ENSO under global warming. One of such forcing perturbation is the volcanic eruption. Our understanding of the responses of ENSO system to explosive tropical volcanic eruptions remains controversial, and we know little about the responses to high-latitude eruptions. Here, we synthesize proxy-based ENSO reconstructions, to show that there exist an El Niño-like response to the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and tropical eruptions and a La Niña-like response to the Southern Hemisphere (SH) eruptions over the past millennium. Our climate model simulation results show good agreement with the proxy records. The simulation reveals that due to different meridional thermal contrasts, the westerly wind anomalies can be excited over the tropical Pacific to the south of, at, or to the north of the equator in the first boreal winter after the NH, tropical, or SH eruptions, respectively. Thus, the eastern-Pacific El Niño can develop and peak in the second winter after the NH and tropical eruptions via the Bjerknes feedback. The model simulation only shows a central-Pacific El Niño-like response to the SH eruptions. The reason is that the anticyclonic wind anomaly associated with the SH eruption-induced southeast Pacific cooling will excite westward current anomalies and prevent the development of eastern-Pacific El Niño-like anomaly. These divergent responses to eruptions at different latitudes and in different hemispheres underline the sensitivity of the ENSO system to the spatial structure of radiative disturbances in the atmosphere.

Magnetic Flux Rope Identification and Characterization from Observationally Driven Solar Coronal Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lowder, Chris; Yeates, Anthony

2017-09-01

Formed through magnetic field shearing and reconnection in the solar corona, magnetic flux ropes are structures of twisted magnetic field, threaded along an axis. Their evolution and potential eruption are of great importance for space weather. Here we describe a new methodology for the automated detection of flux ropes in simulated magnetic fields, utilizing field-line helicity. Our Flux Rope Detection and Organization (FRoDO) code, which measures the magnetic flux and helicity content of pre-erupting flux ropes over time, as well as detecting eruptions, is publicly available. As a first demonstration, the code is applied to the output from a time-dependent magnetofrictional model, spanning 1996 June 15-2014 February 10. Over this period, 1561 erupting and 2099 non-erupting magnetic flux ropes are detected, tracked, and characterized. For this particular model data, erupting flux ropes have a mean net helicity magnitude of 2.66× {10}43 Mx2, while non-erupting flux ropes have a significantly lower mean of 4.04× {10}42 Mx2, although there is overlap between the two distributions. Similarly, the mean unsigned magnetic flux for erupting flux ropes is 4.04× {10}21 Mx, significantly higher than the mean value of 7.05× {10}20 Mx for non-erupting ropes. These values for erupting flux ropes are within the broad range expected from observational and theoretical estimates, although the eruption rate in this particular model is lower than that of observed coronal mass ejections. In the future, the FRoDO code will prove to be a valuable tool for assessing the performance of different non-potential coronal simulations and comparing them with observations.

Spatially resolved SO2 flux emissions from Mt Etna

PubMed Central

Bitetto, M.; Delle Donne, D.; Tamburello, G.; Battaglia, A.; Coltelli, M.; Patanè, D.; Prestifilippo, M.; Sciotto, M.; Aiuppa, A.

2016-01-01

Abstract We report on a systematic record of SO2 flux emissions from individual vents of Etna volcano (Sicily), which we obtained using a permanent UV camera network. Observations were carried out in summer 2014, a period encompassing two eruptive episodes of the New South East Crater (NSEC) and a fissure‐fed eruption in the upper Valle del Bove. We demonstrate that our vent‐resolved SO2 flux time series allow capturing shifts in activity from one vent to another and contribute to our understanding of Etna's shallow plumbing system structure. We find that the fissure eruption contributed ~50,000 t of SO2 or ~30% of the SO2 emitted by the volcano during the 5 July to 10 August eruptive interval. Activity from this eruptive vent gradually vanished on 10 August, marking a switch of degassing toward the NSEC. Onset of degassing at the NSEC was a precursory to explosive paroxysmal activity on 11–15 August. PMID:27773952

Thermal mapping of Hawaiian volcanoes with ASTER satellite data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Patrick, Matthew R.; Witzke, Coral-Nadine

2011-01-01

Thermal mapping of volcanoes is important to determine baseline thermal behavior in order to judge future thermal activity that may precede an eruption. We used cloud-free kinetic temperature images from the ASTER (Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer) sensor obtained between 2000 and 2010 to produce thermal maps for all five subaerial volcanoes in Hawai‘i that have had eruptions in the Holocene (Kīlauea, Mauna Loa, Hualālai, Mauna Kea, and Haleakalā). We stacked the images to provide time-averaged thermal maps, as well as to analyze temperature trends through time. Thermal areas are conspicuous at the summits and rift zones of Kīlauea and Mauna Loa, and the summit calderas of these volcanoes contain obvious arcuate, concentric linear thermal areas that probably result from channeling of rising gas along buried, historical intracaldera scarps. The only significant change in thermal activity noted in the study period is the opening of the Halema‘uma‘u vent at Kīlauea's summit in 2008. Several small thermal anomalies are coincident with pit craters on Hualālai. We suspect that these simply result from the sheltered nature of the depression, but closer inspection is warranted to determine if genuine thermal activity exists in the craters. Thermal areas were not detected on Haleakalā or Mauna Kea. The main limitation of the study is the large pixel size (90 m) of the ASTER images, which reduces our ability to detect subtle changes or to identify small, low-temperature thermal activity. This study, therefore, is meant to characterize the broad, large-scale thermal features on these volcanoes. Future work should study these thermal areas with thermal cameras and thermocouples, which have a greater ability to detect small, low-temperature thermal features.

Frequency and Size of Strombolian Eruptions from the Phonolitic Lava Lake at Erebus Volcano, Antarctica: Insights from Infrasound and Seismic Observations on Bubble Formation and Ascent

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rotman, H. M. M.; Kyle, P. R.; Fee, D.; Curtis, A.

2015-12-01

Erebus, an active intraplate volcano on Ross Island, commonly produces bubble burst Strombolian explosions from a long-lived, convecting phonolitic lava lake. Persistent lava lakes are rare, and provide direct insights into their underlying magmatic system. Erebus phonolite is H2O-poor and contains ~30% anorthoclase megacrysts. At shallow depths lab measurements suggest the magma has viscosities of ~107 Pa s. This has implications for magma and bubble ascent rates through the conduit and into the lava lake. The bulk composition and matrix glass of Erebus ejecta has remained uniform for many thousands of years, but eruptive activity varies on decadal and shorter time scales. Over the last 15 years, increased activity took place in 2005-2007, and more recently in the 2013 austral summer. In the 2014 austral summer, new infrasound sensors were installed ~700 m from the summit crater hosting the lava lake. These sensors, supplemented by the Erebus network seismic stations, recorded >1000 eruptions between 1 January and 7 April 2015, with an average infrasound daily uptime of 9.6 hours. Over the same time period, the CTBT infrasound station IS55, ~25 km from Erebus, detected ~115 of the >1000 locally observed eruptions with amplitude decreases of >100x. An additional ~200 eruptions were recorded during local infrasound downtime. This represents an unusually high level of activity from the Erebus lava lake, and while instrument noise influences the minimum observable amplitude each day, the eruption infrasound amplitudes may vary by ~3 orders of magnitude over the scale of minutes to hours. We use this heightened period of variable activity and associated seismic and acoustic waveforms to examine mechanisms for bubble formation and ascent, such as rise speed dependence and collapsing foam; repose times for the larger eruptions; and possible eruption connections to lava lake cyclicity.

H(alpha) Proxies for EIT Crinkles: Further Evidence for Preflare "Breakout"-Type Activity in an Ejective Solar Eruption

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sterling, Alphonse C.; Qiu, Jiong; Wang, Haimin; Moore, Ronald L.

2001-01-01

We present H(alpha) observations from Big Bear Solar Observatory of an eruptive flare in NOAA Active Region 8210, occurring near 22:30 UT on 1998 May 1. Previously, using the Extreme Ultraviolet Imaging Telescope (EIT) on the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) spacecraft, we found that a pattern of transient, localized brightenings, which we call 'EIT crinkles,' appears in the neighborhood of the eruption near the time of flare onset. These EIT crinkles occur at a location in the active region well separated from the sheared core magnetic fields, which is where the most intense features of the eruption are concentrated. We also previously found that high-cadence images from the Soft X-ray Telescope (SXT) on Yohkoh indicate that soft X-ray intensity enhancements in the core begin after the start of the EIT crinkles. With the H(alpha) data, we find remote flare brightening counterparts to the EIT crinkles. Light curves as functions of time of various areas of the active region show that several of the remote flare brightenings undergo intensity increases prior to the onset of principal brightenings in the core region, consistent with our earlier findings from EIT and SXT data. These timing relationships are consistent with the eruption onset mechanism known as the breakout model, introduced by Antiochos and colleagues, which proposes that eruptions begin with reconnection at a magnetic null high above the core region. Our observations are also consistent with other proposed mechanisms that do not involve early reconnection in the core region. As a corollary, our observations are not consistent with the so-called tether-cutting models, which say that the eruption begins with reconnection in the core. The H(alpha) data further show that a filament in the core region becomes activated near the time of EIT crinkle onset, but little if any of the filament actually erupts, despite the presence of a halo coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with this event.

Erupting Volcano Mount Etna

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2001-01-01

An Expedition Two crewmember aboard the International Space Station (ISS) captured this overhead look at the smoke and ash regurgitated from the erupting volcano Mt. Etna on the island of Sicily, Italy. At an elevation of 10,990 feet (3,350 m), the summit of the Mt. Etna volcano, one of the most active and most studied volcanoes in the world, has been active for a half-million years and has erupted hundreds of times in recorded history.

Video and seismic observations of Strombolian eruptions at Erebus volcano, Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dibble, R. R.; Kyle, P. R.; Rowe, C. A.

2008-11-01

Between 1986 and 1990 the eruptive activity of Erebus volcano was monitored by a video camera with on-screen time code and recorded on video tape. Corresponding seismic and acoustic signals were recorded from a network of 6 geophones and 2 infrasonic microphones. Two hundred Strombolian explosions and three lava flows which were erupted from 7 vents were captured on video. In December 1986 the Strombolian eruptions ejected bombs and ash. In November 1987 large bubble-bursting Strombolian eruptions were observed. The bubbles burst when the bubble walls thinned to ˜ 20 cm. Explosions with bomb flight-times up to 14.5 s were accompanied by seismic signals with our local size estimate, "unified magnitudes" ( mu), up to 2.3. Explosions in pools of lava formed by flows in the Inner Crater were comparatively weak. Changes in eruptive activity occurred in 1987 when the lava lake was buried by a landslide from the crater wall. Two new vents formed and seismic activity peaked as the landslide was ingested. Lava flows from a vent on the eastern side of the crater formed small lakes and a vent on the north began to flow in 1990. By December 1990 the entire floor of the Inner Crater was buried by up to 20 000 m 3 of new lava. Different families of nearly identical eruption earthquakes occurred each year, whose foci were contained within small, shallow volumes. Immediately after several bubble-bursting eruptions, clear views of the empty vent were recorded. The vent was seen to taper downwards to about half its diameter at the bottom. Our observations confirm models of Strombolian eruptions suggesting they arise from gas slugs rising through a conduit into a flared vent.

Seismological aspects of the 1989-1990 eruptions at redoubt volcano, Alaska: the SSAM perspective

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stephens, C.D.; Chouet, B.A.; Page, R.A.; Lahr, J.C.; Power, J.A.

1994-01-01

SSAM is a simple and inexpensive tool for continuous monitoring of average seismic amplitudes within selected frequency bands in near real-time on a PC-based data acquisition system. During the 1989-1990 eruption sequence at Redoubt Volcano, the potential of SSAM to aid in rapid identification of precursory Long-Period (LP) event swarms was realized, and since this time SSAM has been incorporated in routine monitoring efforts of the Alaska Volcano Observatory. In particular, an eruption that occurred on April 6 was successfully forecast primarily on the basis of recognizing the precursory LP activity on SSAM. Of twenty-two significant eruptions that occurred between December 14 and April 21, eleven had precursory swarms longer than one hour in duration that could be detected on SSAM. For individual swarms, the patterns of relative spectral amplitudes are distinct at each station and remain largely stationary through time, thus indicating that one source may have been preferentially and repeatedly activated throughout the swarm. Typically, a single spectral band dominates the signal at each seismic station: for the vigorous one-day swarm that preceded the first eruption on December 14, signals were sharply peaked in the 1.9-2.7 Hz band at the closest station, located 4 km from the vent, but were dominated by 1.3-1.9 Hz energy at three more distant stations located 7.5-22 km from the vent. The tendency for the signals from different swarms recorded at the same station to be peaked in the same frequency band suggests that all of the sources are characterized by a predominant length scale. Signals from the precursory LP swarms became weaker as the eruption sequence progressed, and swarms that occurred in March and April could only be detected at seismographs on the volcanic edifice. Onset times of precursory LP swarms prior to eruptions ranged from a few hours to about one week, but after the initial vent-clearing phase that ended December 19 these intervals tended to become progressively shorter for successive swarms. These trends in the relative onset times and intensities of successive precursory LP swarms are consistent with an overall depressurization of the magmatic system through time. In general, each of the swarms had an emergent onset, but the intensities did not always increase steadily until the eruptions. Instead, as the time of an eruption approached the intensity usually increased more rapidly before peaking and then declining prior to the eruption; for three of the swarms, two distinct peaks in intensity were apparent. The time intervals between final peaks in swarm intensity and ensuing eruptions ranged from about 2 hours to almost 2 days, but the peaks always occurred closer to the eruptions than to the swarm onsets. Both the onset of LP swarm activity and a decline in intensity prior to an eruption may represent critical points in the process of pressurization that drives the flow of fluids and gas in a sealed magmatic system. A notable exception to this pattern is the eruption of March 9 which lacked a detectable precursory LP swarm, but was followed by an unusually long period of strong LP seismicity that may have been stimulated by a depressurization of the magmatic system resulting from dome failure. On both December 14 and January 2, the spectra of early syn-eruptive signals have peaked signatures much like those of the spectra of precursory LP activity from shortly before the eruptions; these similarities may indicate that the source of precursory seismicity continued to be active during at least the early part of each eruption. In syn-eruptive signals from March and April recorded at stations on the volcanic edifice, the dominant spectral energy progressively shifts with time during the eruption to lower frequencies; at least part of the energy in these signals may have been generated by the debris flows associated with dome failures. ?? 1994.

The 2006-2009 activity of the Ubinas volcano (Peru): Petrology of the 2006 eruptive products and insights into genesis of andesite magmas, magma recharge and plumbing system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rivera, Marco; Thouret, Jean-Claude; Samaniego, Pablo; Le Pennec, Jean-Luc

2014-01-01

Following a fumarolic episode that started six months earlier, the most recent eruptive activity of the Ubinas volcano (south Peru) began on 27 March 2006, intensified between April and October 2006 and slowly declined until December 2009. The chronology of the explosive episode and the extent and composition of the erupted material are documented with an emphasis on ballistic ejecta. A petrological study of the juvenile products allows us to infer the magmatic processes related to the 2006-2009 eruptions of the andesitic Ubinas volcano. The juvenile magma erupted during the 2006 activity shows a homogeneous bulk-rock andesitic composition (56.7-57.6 wt.% SiO2), which belongs to a medium- to high-K calc-alkaline series. The mineral assemblage of the ballistic blocks and tephra consists of plagioclase > two-pyroxenes > Fe-Ti oxide and rare olivine and amphibole set in a groundmass of the same minerals with a dacitic composition (66-67 wt.% SiO2). Thermo-barometric data, based on two-pyroxene and amphibole stability, records a magma temperature of 998 ± 14 °C and a pressure of 476 ± 36 MPa. Widespread mineralogical and textural features point to a disequilibrium process in the erupted andesite magma. These features include inversely zoned "sieve textures" in plagioclase, inversely zoned clinopyroxene, and olivine crystals with reaction and thin overgrowth rims. They indicate that the pre-eruptive magmatic processes were dominated by recharge of a hotter mafic magma into a shallow reservoir, where magma mingling occurred and triggered the eruption. Prior to 2006, a probable recharge of a mafic magma produced strong convection and partial homogenization in the reservoir, as well as a pressure increase and higher magma ascent rate after four years of fumarolic activity. Mafic magmas do not prevail in the Ubinas pre-historical lavas and tephras. However, mafic andesites have been erupted during historical times (e.g. AD 1667 and 2006-2009 vulcanian eruptions). Hence, the most recent episode indicates that a resupply of mafic magmas has probably occurred at depth under Ubinas.

Radon emanometry in soil gases and activity in ashes from El Chichon Volcano

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de La Cruz-Reyna, S.; Mena, M.; Segovia, N.; Chalot, J. F.; Seidel, J. L.; Monnin, M.

1985-05-01

Radon (222Em) emanation measurements in soil gases are reported in connection with the 1982 eruptions of El Chichón Volcano.222Em detection is performed with LR-115 cellulose nitrate track detectors. Results show a general decreasing pattern of222Em concentration in soil with time after the eruptions. Activity measurements of radon daughters in ashes show that a large amount of222Em and220Em was released from magma degassing during the eruptions, and that only a fraction of the degassed magma was erupted. An important fluid interaction between the magma chamber and the surrounding sedimentary rock is also suggested.

Unmanned Airborne System Deployment at Turrialba Volcano for Real Time Eruptive Cloud Measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Diaz, J. A.; Pieri, D. C.; Fladeland, M. M.; Bland, G.; Corrales, E.; Alan, A., Jr.; Alegria, O.; Kolyer, R.

2015-12-01

The development of small unmanned aerial systems (sUAS) with a variety of instrument packages enables in situ and proximal remote sensing measurements of volcanic plumes, even when the active conditions of the volcano do not allow volcanologists and emergency response personnel to get too close to the erupting crater. This has been demonstrated this year by flying a sUAS through the heavy ash driven erupting volcanic cloud of Turrialba Volcano, while conducting real time in situ measurement of gases over the crater summit. The event also achieved the collection of newly released ash samples from the erupting volcano. The interception of the Turrialba ash cloud occurred during the CARTA 2015 field campaign carried out as part of an ongoing program for remote sensing satellite calibration and validation purposes, using active volcanic plumes. These deployments are timed to support overflights of the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) onboard the NASA Terra satellite on a bimonthly basis using airborne platforms such as tethered balloons, free-flying fixed wing small UAVs at altitudes up to 12.5Kft ASL within about a 5km radius of the summit crater. The onboard instrument includes the MiniGas payload which consists of an array of single electrochemical and infrared gas detectors (SO2, H2S CO2), temperature, pressure, relative humidity and GPS sensors, all connected to an Arduino-based board, with data collected at 1Hz. Data are both stored onboard and sent by telemetry to the ground operator within a 3 km range. The UAV can also carry visible and infrared cameras as well as other payloads, such as a UAV-MS payload that is currently under development for mass spectrometer-based in situ measurements. The presentation describes the ongoing UAV- based in situ remote sensing validation program at Turrialba Volcano, the results of a fly-through the eruptive cloud, as well as future plans to continue these efforts. Work presented here was carried out, in part, at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, under contract to NASA.

Geology of the Ugashik-Mount Peulik Volcanic Center, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Miller, Thomas P.

2004-01-01

The Ugashik-Mount Peulik volcanic center, 550 km southwest of Anchorage on the Alaska Peninsula, consists of the late Quaternary 5-km-wide Ugashik caldera and the stratovolcano Mount Peulik built on the north flank of Ugashik. The center has been the site of explosive volcanism including a caldera-forming eruption and post-caldera dome-destructive activity. Mount Peulik has been formed entirely in Holocene time and erupted in 1814 and 1845. A large lava dome occupies the summit crater, which is breached to the west. A smaller dome is perched high on the southeast flank of the cone. Pyroclastic-flow deposits form aprons below both domes. One or more sector-collapse events occurred early in the formation of Mount Peulik volcano resulting in a large area of debris-avalanche deposits on the volcano's northwest flank. The Ugashik-Mount Peulik center is a calcalkaline suite of basalt, andesite, dacite, and rhyolite, ranging in SiO2 content from 51 to 72 percent. The Ugashik-Mount Peulik magmas appear to be co-genetic in a broad sense and their compositional variation has probably resulted from a combination of fractional crystallization and magma-mixing. The most likely scenario for a future eruption is that one or more of the summit domes on Mount Peulik are destroyed as new magma rises to the surface. Debris avalanches and pyroclastic flows may then move down the west and, less likely, east flanks of the volcano for distances of 10 km or more. A new lava dome or series of domes would be expected to form either during or within some few years after the explosive disruption of the previous dome. This cycle of dome disruption, pyroclastic flow generation, and new dome formation could be repeated several times in a single eruption. The volcano poses little direct threat to human population as the area is sparsely populated. The most serious hazard is the effect of airborne volcanic ash on aircraft since Mount Peulik sits astride heavily traveled air routes connecting the U.S. and Europe to Asia. Activity of the type described could produce eruption columns to heights of 15 km and result in significant amounts of ash 250-300 km downwind.

Santorini Volcano's 20th Century Eruptions: A Combined Petrogenetical, Volcanological, Sociological and Environmental Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Drymoni, Kyriaki; Magganas, Andreas; Pomonis, Panagiotis

2014-05-01

Santorini, the famous stratovolcano in the Aegean Sea, erupted three time periods during the 20th century (1925-1928, 1939-1941, 1950) and since then remains dormant. This study tried to combine and evaluate new and published volcanological, petrological, geochemical, environmental and sociological data of these three phases of Santorini's activity, which practically restricted to the caldera center on the Nea Kameni Islet. After field work on the formed dacite flows, pyroclastics and domes, representative rock samples and enclaves were collected and investigated for their texture, physical parameters, mineralogy and chemical composition by polarizing light microscope, scanning electron microscope (SEM-EDS), XRD, Raman spectroscopy and ICP-MS. The petrogenetic evaluation of the data obtained suggests slight but significant changes in the solid and aerial phases produced during the three explosion stages, which can be attributed to minor variations in the magmatic differentiation and magma chamber physicochemical conditions. These variations were also expressed by decrease of duration and intensity of the eruptions, as well as in their volume of ejecta and lava. Probably, the subsequent relatively long dormant period of the volcano is also related to this tension of decrease. The first compared results were collected from scientific literature, old photos as well as local and regional press and state documents from the different periods of volcanism, record the past hazard case scenarios and civil defense planning of the individual eruptions. As part of the disaster management a pilot survey, in which personal interviews with aged local islanders that were eye-witnesses of the events and elderly people or tourists that they indirectly experienced or have heard about them, was also conducted. This event-tracing, along with air pollution software models using volcanological data have shown the social impacts and the environmental consequences of the volcanic activities seem generally to follow the same way of reduction with time as above. Conclusively, this integrated comparison of the three successive per decade eruption periods within the 20th century, which had followed a long dormant period of about 60 years, provide worthy hazard and risk assessment for Santorini volcano future waking up.

The 2005 eruption of Kliuchevskoi volcano: Chronology and processes derived from ASTER spaceborne and field-based data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rose, Shellie; Ramsey, Michael

2009-07-01

Kliuchevskoi volcano, located on the Kamchatka peninsula of eastern Russia, is one of the largest and most active volcanoes in the world. Its location and diversity of eruption styles make satellite-based monitoring and characterization of its eruptive activity essential. In 2005, the Kamchatka Volcano Emergency Response Team (KVERT) first reported that seismic activity of Kliuchevskoi increased above background levels on 12 January (Kamchatka Volcanic Eruption Response Team (KVERT) Report, 2005. Kliuchevskoi Volcano, 14 January through 13 May 2005. ( http://www.avo.alaska.edu/activity/avoreport.php?view=kam info&id=&month=January&year=2005). Cited January 2007). By 15 January Kliuchevskoi entered an explosive-effusive phase, which lasted for five months and produced basaltic lava flows, lahar deposits, and phreatic explosions along its northwestern flank. We present a comparison between field observations and multispectral satellite image data acquired by the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) instrument in order to characterize the eruptive behavior. The ASTER instrument was targeted in an automated urgent request mode throughout the eruption timeline in order to collect data at the highest observation frequency possible. Brightness temperatures were calculated in all three ASTER wavelength regions during lava flow emplacement. The maximum lava flow brightness temperatures, calculated from the 15 m/pixel visible near infrared (VNIR) data, were in excess of 800 °C. The shortwave infrared (SWIR) data were radiometrically and geometrically corrected, normalized to the same gain settings, and used to estimate an eruptive volume of 2.35 × 10 - 2 km 3 at the summit. These data were also used to better constrain errors arising in the thermal infrared (TIR) data due to sub-pixel thermal heterogeneities. Based on all the ASTER data, the eruption was separated into three phases: an initial explosive phase (20 January-31 January), an explosive-effusive phase (1 February-8 March), and a subsequent cooling phase. Decorrelation stretch (DCS) images of the TIR data also suggested the presence of silicate ash, SO 2, and water vapor plumes that extended up to 300 km from the summit. The ASTER rapid-response program provided important multispectral, moderate spatial resolution information that was used to detect and monitor the eruptive activity of this remote volcano which can be applied to other eruptions worldwide.

Ice Thickness, Melting Rates and Styles of Activity in Ice-Volcano Interaction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gudmundsson, M. T.

2005-12-01

In most cases when eruptions occur within glaciers they lead to rapid ice melting, jokulhlaups and/or lahars. Many parameters influence the style of activity and its impact on the environment. These include ice thickness (size of glacier), bedrock geometry, magma flow rate and magma composition. The eruptions that have been observed can roughly be divided into: (1) eruptions under several hundred meters thick ice on a relatively flat bedrock, (2) eruptions on flat or sloping bed through relatively thin ice, and (3) volcanism where effects are limitied to confinement of lava flows or melting of ice by pyroclastic flows or surges. This last category (ice-contact volcanism) need not cause much ice melting. Many of the deposits formed by Pleistocene volcanism in Iceland, British Columbia and Antarctica belong to the first category. An important difference between this type of activity and submarine activity (where pressure is hydrostatic) is that pressure at vents may in many cases be much lower than glaciostatic due to partial support of ice cover over vents by the surrounding glacier. Reduced pressure favours explosive activity. Thus the effusive/explosive transition may occur several hundred metres underneath the ice surface. Explosive fragmentation of magma leads to much higher rates of heat transfer than does effusive eruption of pillow lavas, and hence much higher melting rates. This effect of reduced pressure at vents will be less pronounced in a large ice sheet than in a smaller glacier or ice cap, since the hydraulic gradient that drives water away from an eruption site will be lower in the large glacier. This may have implications for form and type of eruption deposits and their relationship with ice thickness and glacier size.

DESTABILIZATION OF A SOLAR PROMINENCE/FILAMENT FIELD SYSTEM BY A SERIES OF EIGHT HOMOLOGOUS ERUPTIVE FLARES LEADING TO A CME

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Panesar, Navdeep K.; Moore, Ronald L.; Sterling, Alphonse C.

2015-09-20

Homologous flares are flares that occur repetitively in the same active region, with similar structure and morphology. A series of at least eight homologous flares occurred in active region NOAA 11237 over 2011 June 16–17. A nearby prominence/filament was rooted in the active region, and situated near the bottom of a coronal cavity. The active region was on the southeast solar limb as seen from the Solar Dynamics Observatory/Atmospheric Imaging Assembly, and on the disk as viewed from the Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory/EUVI-B. The dual perspective allows us to study in detail behavior of the prominence/filament material entrained in themore » magnetic field of the repeatedly erupting system. Each of the eruptions were mainly confined, but expelled hot material into the prominence/filament cavity system (PFCS). The field carrying and containing the ejected hot material interacted with the PFCS and caused it to inflate, resulting in a step-wise rise of the PFCS approximately in step with the homologous eruptions. The eighth eruption triggered the PFCS to move outward slowly, accompanied by a weak coronal dimming. As this slow PFCS eruption was underway, a final “ejective” flare occurred in the core of the active region, resulting in strong dimming in the EUVI-B images and expulsion of a coronal mass ejection (CME). A plausible scenario is that the repeated homologous flares could have gradually destabilized the PFCS, and its subsequent eruption removed field above the acitive region and in turn led to the ejective flare, strong dimming, and CME.« less

Development of a risk assessment tool for volcanic urban environments: RiskScape and the Auckland Volcanic Field, New Zealand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deligne, N. I.; Leonard, G.; King, A.; Wilson, G.; Wilson, T.; Lindsay, J. M.

2013-12-01

Auckland city, home to a third of New Zealand's population, is situated on top of the Auckland Volcanic Field (AVF), which last erupted roughly 500 years ago. Since 2008, the Determining Volcanic Risk in Auckland (DEVORA) program has investigated the geologic context of the AVF, improved timing constraints of past eruptions, explored possible tempo-spatial-volume eruption trends, and identified likely styles and hazards of future eruptions. DEVORA is now moving into development of risk and societal models for Auckland. The volcanic module of RiskScape, a multi-hazard risk assessment tool developed by Crown Research Institutes GNS Science and NIWA, will be expanded and used to model risk and impact to the built environment and population caused by a future AVF eruption. RiskScape models casualties, damage and disruption caused by various hazards, the resulting reduced functionality of assets, and associated clean up costs. A strength of RiskScape is that the effect of various mitigation strategies can be explored by strengthening asset attributes and examining resulting changes in the output risk evaluation. We present our framework for building a volcano hazard exposure module for RiskScape along with our approach for assessing asset vulnerability through the development of fragility functions. We also present the framework for engagement with regional Auckland stakeholders, including representatives of local and regional governments and utility companies, to identify complementary needs to ensure that final risk products are relevant and useable by end users.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

NA

By studying the rocks and geologic features of an area, experts can assess whether it is vulnerable to future volcanic eruptions. Scientists have performed extensive studies at and near Yucca Mountain to determine whether future volcanoes could possibly affect the proposed repository for nuclear waste.

The AD 1300 1700 eruptive periods at Tungurahua volcano, Ecuador, revealed by historical narratives, stratigraphy and radiocarbon dating

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Le Pennec, J.-L.; Jaya, D.; Samaniego, P.; Ramón, P.; Moreno Yánez, S.; Egred, J.; van der Plicht, J.

2008-09-01

Tungurahua is a frequently active and hazardous volcano of the Ecuadorian Andes that has experienced pyroclastic flow-forming eruption in 1773, 1886, 1916-18 and 2006-08. Earlier eruptions in Late Pre-Hispanic and Early Colonial times have remained poorly known and are debated in the literature. To reconstruct the eruptive chronology in that time interval we examine relevant historical narratives recently found in Sevilla, Spain, and Rome, Italy, and we combine stratigraphic field constraints with 22 new radiocarbon age determinations. Results show that pyroclastic flow-forming eruptions and tephra falls took place repeatedly since ~ 700 14C yr BP, when the Tungurahua region was already populated. Radiocarbon ages averaging around 625 yr BP reveal a period of notable eruptive activity in the 14th century (Late Integration cultural period). The associated andesitic eruptions produced ash and scoria falls of regional extent and left scoria flow deposits on the western flanks of the edifice. The fact that Tungurahua was known by the Puruhás Indians as a volcano at the time of the Spanish Conquest in 1533 perhaps refers to these eruptions. A group of ages ranging from 380 to 270 yr BP is attributed to younger periods of activity that also predates the 1773 event, and calibration results yield eruption dates from late 15th to late 17th centuries (i.e. Inca and Early Colonial Periods). The historical narratives mention an Early Colonial eruption between the Spanish Conquest and the end of the 16th century, followed by a distinct eruptive period in the 1640s. The descriptions are vague but point to destructive eruptions likely accompanied by pyroclastic flows. The dated tephras consist of andesitic scoria flow deposits and the contemporaneous fallout layers occur to the west. These findings reveal that the eruption recurrence rate at Tungurahua is at least one pyroclastic flow-forming event per century since the 13th century and the occurrence of such eruptions in 2006-08 is thus fully consistent with the rate inferred for the past seven centuries. In addition, historical chronicles suggest that a notch opened in the crater margin during the 1640 decade, as has occurred repeatedly in the past millennium at Tungurahua. Such small-volume collapse events represent a previously unrecognized source of hazards which deserve special attention for risk assessment purposes in the context of the currently ongoing eruption.

Months between rejuvenation and volcanic eruption at Yellowstone caldera, Wyoming

USGS Publications Warehouse

Till, Christy B.; Vazquez, Jorge A.; Boyce, Jeremy W

2015-01-01

Rejuvenation of previously intruded silicic magma is an important process leading to effusive rhyolite, which is the most common product of volcanism at calderas with protracted histories of eruption and unrest such as Yellowstone, Long Valley, and Valles, USA. Although orders of magnitude smaller in volume than rare caldera-forming super-eruptions, these relatively frequent effusions of rhyolite are comparable to the largest eruptions of the 20th century and pose a considerable volcanic hazard. However, the physical pathway from rejuvenation to eruption of silicic magma is unclear particularly because the time between reheating of a subvolcanic intrusion and eruption is poorly quantified. This study uses geospeedometry of trace element profiles with nanometer resolution in sanidine crystals to reveal that Yellowstone’s most recent volcanic cycle began when remobilization of a near- or sub-solidus silicic magma occurred less than 10 months prior to eruption, following a 220,000 year period of volcanic repose. Our results reveal a geologically rapid timescale for rejuvenation and effusion of ~3 km3 of high-silica rhyolite lava even after protracted cooling of the subvolcanic system, which is consistent with recent physical modeling that predict a timescale of several years or less. Future renewal of rhyolitic volcanism at Yellowstone is likely to require an energetic intrusion of mafic or silicic magma into the shallow subvolcanic reservoir and could rapidly generate an eruptible rhyolite on timescales similar to those documented here.

Statistical Study of Eruptive Filaments using Automated Detection and Tracking Technique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Joshi, Anand D.; Hanaoka, Yoichiro

2017-08-01

Solar filaments are dense and cool material suspended in the low solar corona. They are found to be on the Sun for periods up to a few weeks, and they end their lifetime either as a gradual disappearance or an eruption. We have developed an automated detection and tracking technique to study such filament eruptions using full-disc Hα images. Various processing steps are used before subjecting an image to segmentation, that would extract only the filaments. Further steps track the filaments between successive images, label them uniquely, and generate output that can be used for a comparative study. In this poster, we would use this technique to carry out a statistical study of several erupting filaments through which the common underlying properties of such eruptions can be derived. Details of the technique will also be discussed in brief. Filament eruptions are found to be closely associated with coronal mass ejections (CMEs) wherein a large mass from corona is ejected into the interplanetary space. If such a CME hits the Earth with a favourable orientation of magnetic field a geomagnetic storm can result adversely affecting electronic infrastructure in space as well as ground. The properties of filament eruptions derived can be used in future to predict an eruption in an almost real-time basis, thereby giving a warning of imminent storm.

Large historical eruptions at subaerial mud volcanoes, Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manga, M.; Bonini, M.

2012-11-01

Active mud volcanoes in the northern Apennines, Italy, currently have gentle eruptions. There are, however, historical accounts of violent eruptions and outbursts. Evidence for large past eruptions is also recorded by large decimeter rock clasts preserved in erupted mud. We measured the rheological properties of mud currently being erupted in order to evaluate the conditions needed to transport such large clasts to the surface. The mud is well-characterized by the Herschel-Bulkley model, with yield stresses between 4 and 8 Pa. Yield stresses of this magnitude can support the weight of particles with diameters up to several mm. At present, particles larger than this size are not being carried to the surface. The transport of larger clasts to the surface requires ascent speeds greater than their settling speed in the mud. We use a model for the settling of particles and rheological parameters from laboratory measurements to show that the eruption of large clasts requires ascent velocities > 1 m s-1, at least three orders of magnitude greater than during the present, comparatively quiescent, activity. After regional earthquakes on 20 May and 29 May 2012, discharge also increased at locations where the stress changes produced by the earthquakes would have unclamped feeder dikes below the mud volcanoes. The magnitude of increased discharge, however, is less than that inferred from the large clasts. Both historical accounts and erupted deposits are consistent in recording episodic large eruptions.

The Ottaviano eruption of Somma-Vesuvio (8000 y B.P.): a magmatic alternating fall and flow-forming eruption

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rolandi, G.; Maraffi, S.; Petrosino, P.; Lirer, L.

1993-11-01

The Ottaviano eruption occurred in the late neolithic (8000 y B.P.). 2.40 km 3 of phonolitic pyroclastic material (0.61 km 3 DRE) were emplaced as pyroclastic flow, surge and fall deposits. The eruption began with a fall phase, with a model column height of 14 km, producing a pumice fall deposit (LA). This phase ended with short-lived weak explosive activity, giving rise to a fine-grained deposit (L1), passing to pumice fall deposits as the result of an increasing column height and mass discharge rate. The subsequent two fall phases (producing LB and LC deposits), had model column heights of 20 and 22 km with eruption rates of 2.5 × 10 7 and 2.81 × 10 7 kg/s, respectively. These phases ended with the deposition of ash layers (L2 and L3), related to a decreasing, pulsing explosive activity. The values of dynamic parameters calculated for the eruption classify it as a sub-plinian event. Each fall phase was characterized by variations in the eruptive intensity, and several pyroclastic flows were emplaced (F1 to F3). Alternating pumice and ash fall beds record the waning of the eruption. Finally, owing to the collapse of a eruptive column of low gas content, the last pyroclastic flow (F4) was emplaced.

Volcanic Eruptions and Climate: Outstanding Research Issues

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robock, Alan

2016-04-01

Large volcanic eruptions inject sulfur gases into the stratosphere, which convert to sulfate aerosols with an e-folding residence time of about one year. The radiative and chemical effects of this aerosol cloud produce responses in the climate system. Based on observations after major eruptions of the past and experiments with numerical models of the climate system, we understand much about their climatic impact, but there are also a number of unanswered questions. Volcanic eruptions produce global cooling, and are an important natural cause of interannual, interdecadal, and even centennial-scale climate change. One of the most interesting volcanic effects is the "winter warming" of Northern Hemisphere continents following major tropical eruptions. During the winter in the Northern Hemisphere following every large tropical eruption of the past century, surface air temperatures over North America, Europe, and East Asia were warmer than normal, while they were colder over Greenland and the Middle East. This pattern and the coincident atmospheric circulation correspond to the positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation. While this response is observed after recent major eruptions, most state-of-the-art climate models have trouble simulating winter warming. Why? High latitude eruptions in the Northern Hemisphere, while also producing global cooling, do not have the same impact on atmospheric dynamics. Both tropical and high latitude eruptions can weaken the Indian and African summer monsoon, and the effects can be seen in past records of flow in the Nile and Niger Rivers. Since the Mt. Pinatubo eruption in the Philippines in 1991, there have been no large eruptions that affected climate, but the cumulative effects of small eruptions over the past decade have had a small effect on global temperature trends. Some important outstanding research questions include: How much seasonal, annual, and decadal predictability is possible following a large volcanic eruption? Do volcanic eruptions change the probability of El Niño or La Niña in the years following the eruption? Are there decadal-scale oceanic responses that can provide long-term predictability? What was the contribution of volcanic eruptions to initiation and maintenance of the Little Ice Age? What are the observational needs for future volcanic eruptions that will help to improve forecasts, observe responses following volcanic eruptions, and better understand nucleation and growth of sulfate aerosols, which is important for evaluating suggestions for considering anthropogenic stratospheric clouds for climate engineering?

Spain as an emergency air traffic hub during volcanic air fall events? Evidence of past volcanic ash air fall over Europe during the late Pleistocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hardiman, Mark; Lane, Christine; Blockley, Simon P. E.; Moreno, Ana; Valero-Garcés, Blas; Ortiz, José E.; Torres, Trino; Lowe, John J.; Menzies, Martin A.

2010-05-01

Past volcanic eruptions often leave visible ash layers in the geological record, for example in marine or lake sedimentary sequences. Recent developments, however, have shown that non-visible volcanic ash layers are also commonly preserved in sedimentary deposits. These augment the record of past volcanic events by demonstrating that past ash dispersals have been more numerous and widely disseminated in Europe than previously appreciated. The dispersal ‘footprints' of some large late Pleistocene European eruptions are examined here in the light of the recent Eyjafjallajökull eruption. For example, the Vedde Ash which was erupted from Iceland around 12 thousand years ago, delivered distal (and non-visible) glass deposits as far south as Switzerland and as far east as the Ural Mountains in Russia, with an overall European distribution remarkably similar to the dominant tracks of the recent Eyjafjallajökull plumes. The Eyjafjallajökull eruption has demonstrated that relatively small amounts of distal volcanic ash in the atmosphere can seriously disrupt aviation activity, with attendant economic and other consequences. It has raised fundamental questions about the likelihood of larger or more prolonged volcanic activity in the near future, and the possibility of even more serious consequences than those experienced recently. Given that there are several other volcanic centres that could cause such disruption in Europe (e.g. Campania and other volcanic centres in Italy; Aegean volcanoes), a key question is whether there are parts of Europe less prone to ash plumes and which could therefore operate as emergency air traffic hubs during times of ash dispersal. Although not generated to answer this question, the recent geological record might provide a basis for seeking the answer. For example, four palaeo-records covering the time frame of 8 - 40 Ka BP that are geographically distributed across Spain have been examined for non-visible distal ash content. All four have proved to be almost devoid of volcanic ash, which contrasts with results obtained from sites throughout central and northern Europe. This suggests that Spain has remained free of ashfall events throughout the late Pleistocene, or that any ash dispersal over Spain has been short-lived and/or infrequent. This appears to accord with the pattern of dispersal of Eyjafjallajökull ash clouds over April to May 2010. Most of the active period was characterised by low eruptive columns and the tropospheric dispersal of ash. Under these conditions, ash dispersal was multi-directional from eastern Europe to Greenland and beyond, but did not encroach on to the Iberian peninsula. In contrast, when the eruptive columns became more elevated and entrained in the jet stream, the dispersal directions were more uni-directional and passed over Iberia and North Africa. Thus the apparent lack of volcanic ash in Iberia (10 - 40ka) may have as much to do with eruptive column height and volcano location as with circulation patterns (tropospheric v. stratospheric). A more comprehensive assessment of geological records of non-visible ash layers in selected sites may hold the key to examining this matter more robustly.

Sunset Crater, AZ: Evolution of a highly explosive basaltic eruption as indicated by granulometry and clast componentry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allison, C. M.; Clarke, A. B.; Pioli, L.; Alfano, F.

2011-12-01

Basaltic scoria cone volcanoes are the most abundant volcanic edifice on Earth and occur in all tectonic settings. Basaltic magmas have lower viscosities, higher temperatures, and lower volatile contents than silicic magmas, and therefore generally have a lower potential for explosive activity. However, basaltic eruptions display great variability in eruptive style, from mild lava flows to more energetic explosions with large plumes. The San Francisco Volcanic Field (SFVF) in northern Arizona, active from 6 Ma-present, consists of over 600 volcanoes, mostly alkali basalt scoria cones, and five silicic centers [Wood and Kienle (1990), Cambridge University Press]. The eruption of Sunset Crater in the SFVF during the Holocene was an anomalously large basaltic explosive eruption, consisting of eight tephra-bearing phases and three lava flows [Amos (1986), MS thesis, ASU]. Typical scoria cone-forming eruptions have volumes <0.1km3 DRE, while the Sunset Crater deposit is at least 0.6km3 DRE [Amos (1986)]. The phases vary in size and style; the beginning stages of explosive activity (phases 1-2) were considerably smaller than phases 3-5, classified as subplinian. Due to its young age, the eruptive material is fresh and the deposit is well-preserved. We sampled the first five tephra units at 25 locations, ranging from 6 km to 20 km from the vent, concentrating our efforts in the downwind direction (E and SE of the vent) along the primary dispersal axes of several phases. Notable variations among the first five phases were found from evaluation of juvenile clast componentry, with each phase containing some proportion of red, grey, and glassy to iridescent clasts. The red and grey clasts are sub-rounded to rounded with high sphericity, while the other clasts are highly angular and slightly elongate, with blue-black to gold glassy and iridescent surfaces. The glassy and iridescent clasts likely represent fresh, juvenile ejecta, which were quenched rapidly, whereas the red and grey rounded clasts may be the result of recycling of the cone or vent-fill material. Alternatively, the differences among the populations may represent lateral variations in conduit flow conditions. In general, phases associated with large volumes and large dispersal areas tend to contain larger proportions of the glassy/iridescent clasts. Phase 1 has a large proportion of glassy clasts. Phase 2 has approximately half red and half grey clasts, as well as a small fraction of glassy material. Phase 3, which is the phase with the largest dispersal area, has a similar proportion of glassy clasts as phase 1. Phase 4, the largest by volume at ~0.11km3 DRE [Amos (1986)], has the highest proportion of glassy clasts. Phase 5 is comparable to phase 4 (similar fractions of each clast type), although the glassy surface changes from gold to black as clast size decreases. Each phase is well- to very well-sorted. Future work will include textural analysis of bubbles and crystals to understand the ascent and cooling history of the different clast types, and also to better interpret differences in abundance as related to variations in eruption or vent dynamics.

Thermomechanical controls on magma supply and volcanic deformation: application to Aira caldera, Japan.

PubMed

Hickey, James; Gottsmann, Joachim; Nakamichi, Haruhisa; Iguchi, Masato

2016-09-13

Ground deformation often precedes volcanic eruptions, and results from complex interactions between source processes and the thermomechanical behaviour of surrounding rocks. Previous models aiming to constrain source processes were unable to include realistic mechanical and thermal rock properties, and the role of thermomechanical heterogeneity in magma accumulation was unclear. Here we show how spatio-temporal deformation and magma reservoir evolution are fundamentally controlled by three-dimensional thermomechanical heterogeneity. Using the example of continued inflation at Aira caldera, Japan, we demonstrate that magma is accumulating faster than it can be erupted, and the current uplift is approaching the level inferred prior to the violent 1914 Plinian eruption. Magma storage conditions coincide with estimates for the caldera-forming reservoir ~29,000 years ago, and the inferred magma supply rate indicates a ~130-year timeframe to amass enough magma to feed a future 1914-sized eruption. These new inferences are important for eruption forecasting and risk mitigation, and have significant implications for the interpretations of volcanic deformation worldwide.

Thermomechanical controls on magma supply and volcanic deformation: application to Aira caldera, Japan

PubMed Central

Hickey, James; Gottsmann, Joachim; Nakamichi, Haruhisa; Iguchi, Masato

2016-01-01

Ground deformation often precedes volcanic eruptions, and results from complex interactions between source processes and the thermomechanical behaviour of surrounding rocks. Previous models aiming to constrain source processes were unable to include realistic mechanical and thermal rock properties, and the role of thermomechanical heterogeneity in magma accumulation was unclear. Here we show how spatio-temporal deformation and magma reservoir evolution are fundamentally controlled by three-dimensional thermomechanical heterogeneity. Using the example of continued inflation at Aira caldera, Japan, we demonstrate that magma is accumulating faster than it can be erupted, and the current uplift is approaching the level inferred prior to the violent 1914 Plinian eruption. Magma storage conditions coincide with estimates for the caldera-forming reservoir ~29,000 years ago, and the inferred magma supply rate indicates a ~130-year timeframe to amass enough magma to feed a future 1914-sized eruption. These new inferences are important for eruption forecasting and risk mitigation, and have significant implications for the interpretations of volcanic deformation worldwide. PMID:27619897

On the fate of pumice rafts formed during the 2012 Havre submarine eruption

PubMed Central

Jutzeler, Martin; Marsh, Robert; Carey, Rebecca J.; White, James D. L.; Talling, Peter J.; Karlstrom, Leif

2014-01-01

Pumice rafts are floating mobile accumulations of low-density pumice clasts generated by silicic volcanic eruptions. Pumice in rafts can drift for years, become waterlogged and sink, or become stranded on shorelines. Here we show that the pumice raft formed by the impressive, deep submarine eruption of the Havre caldera volcano (Southwest Pacific) in July 2012 can be mapped by satellite imagery augmented by sailing crew observations. Far from coastal interference, the eruption produced a single >400 km2 raft in 1 day, thus initiating a gigantic, high-precision, natural experiment relevant to both modern and prehistoric oceanic surface dispersal dynamics. Observed raft dispersal can be accurately reproduced by simulating drift and dispersal patterns using currents from an eddy-resolving ocean model hindcast. For future eruptions that produce potentially hazardous pumice rafts, our technique allows real-time forecasts of dispersal routes, in addition to inference of ash/pumice deposit distribution in the deep ocean. PMID:24755668

Cause and risk of catastrophic eruptions in the Japanese Archipelago.

PubMed

Tatsumi, Yoshiyuki; Suzuki-Kamata, Keiko

2014-01-01

The Japanese Archipelago is characterized by active volcanism with variable eruption styles. The magnitude (M)-frequency relationships of catastrophic caldera-forming eruptions (M ≥ 7) are statistically different from those of smaller eruptions (M ≤ 5.7), suggesting that different mechanisms control these eruptions. We also find that volcanoes prone to catastrophic eruptions are located in regions of low crustal strain rate (<0.5 × 10(8)/y) and propose, as one possible mechanism, that the viscous silicic melts that cause such eruptions can be readily segregated from the partially molten lower crust and form a large magma reservoir in such a tectonic regime. Finally we show that there is a ∼1% probability of a catastrophic eruption in the next 100 years based on the eruption records for the last 120 ky. More than 110 million people live in an area at risk of being covered by tephra >20 cm thick, which would severely disrupt every day life, from such an eruption on Kyushu Island, SW Japan.

Cause and risk of catastrophic eruptions in the Japanese Archipelago

PubMed Central

TATSUMI, Yoshiyuki; SUZUKI-KAMATA, Keiko

2014-01-01

The Japanese Archipelago is characterized by active volcanism with variable eruption styles. The magnitude (M)-frequency relationships of catastrophic caldera-forming eruptions (M ≥ 7) are statistically different from those of smaller eruptions (M ≤ 5.7), suggesting that different mechanisms control these eruptions. We also find that volcanoes prone to catastrophic eruptions are located in regions of low crustal strain rate (<0.5 × 108/y) and propose, as one possible mechanism, that the viscous silicic melts that cause such eruptions can be readily segregated from the partially molten lower crust and form a large magma reservoir in such a tectonic regime. Finally we show that there is a ∼1% probability of a catastrophic eruption in the next 100 years based on the eruption records for the last 120 ky. More than 110 million people live in an area at risk of being covered by tephra >20 cm thick, which would severely disrupt every day life, from such an eruption on Kyushu Island, SW Japan. PMID:25391319

2006 Volcanic Activity in Alaska, Kamchatka, and the Kurile Islands: Summary of Events and Response of the Alaska Volcano Observatory

USGS Publications Warehouse

Neal, Christina A.; McGimsey, Robert G.; Dixon, James P.; Manevich, Alexander; Rybin, Alexander

2008-01-01

The Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO) responded to eruptions, possible eruptions, and volcanic unrest at or near nine separate volcanic centers in Alaska during 2006. A significant explosive eruption at Augustine Volcano in Cook Inlet marked the first eruption within several hundred kilometers of principal population centers in Alaska since 1992. Glaciated Fourpeaked Mountain, a volcano thought to have been inactive in the Holocene, produced a phreatic eruption in the fall of 2006 and continued to emit copious amounts of volcanic gas into 2007. AVO staff also participated in hazard communication and monitoring of multiple eruptions at seven volcanoes in Russia as part of its collaborative role in the Kamchatka and Sakhalin Volcanic Eruption Response Teams.

Real-time Seismic Amplitude Measurement (RSAM): a volcano monitoring and prediction tool

USGS Publications Warehouse

Endo, E.T.; Murray, T.

1991-01-01

Seismicity is one of the most commonly monitored phenomena used to determine the state of a volcano and for the prediction of volcanic eruptions. Although several real-time earthquake-detection and data acquisition systems exist, few continuously measure seismic amplitude in circumstances where individual events are difficult to recognize or where volcanic tremor is prevalent. Analog seismic records provide a quick visual overview of activity; however, continuous rapid quantitative analysis to define the intensity of seismic activity for the purpose of predicing volcanic eruptions is not always possible because of clipping that results from the limited dynamic range of analog recorders. At the Cascades Volcano Observatory, an inexpensive 8-bit analog-to-digital system controlled by a laptop computer is used to provide 1-min average-amplitude information from eight telemetered seismic stations. The absolute voltage level for each station is digitized, averaged, and appended in near real-time to a data file on a multiuser computer system. Raw realtime seismic amplitude measurement (RSAM) data or transformed RSAM data are then plotted on a common time base with other available volcano-monitoring information such as tilt. Changes in earthquake activity associated with dome-building episodes, weather, and instrumental difficulties are recognized as distinct patterns in the RSAM data set. RSAM data for domebuilding episodes gradually develop into exponential increases that terminate just before the time of magma extrusion. Mount St. Helens crater earthquakes show up as isolated spikes on amplitude plots for crater seismic stations but seldom for more distant stations. Weather-related noise shows up as low-level, long-term disturbances on all seismic stations, regardless of distance from the volcano. Implemented in mid-1985, the RSAM system has proved valuable in providing up-to-date information on seismic activity for three Mount St. Helens eruptive episodes from 1985 to 1986 (May 1985, May 1986, and October 1986). Tiltmeter data, the only other telemetered geophysical information that was available for the three dome-building episodes, is compared to RSAM data to show that the increase in RSAM data was related to the transport of magma to the surface. Thus, if tiltmeter data is not available, RSAM data can be used to predict future magmatic eruptions at Mount St. Helens. We also recognize the limitations of RSAm data. Two examples of RSAM data associated with phreatic or shallow phreatomagmatic explosions were not preceded by the same increases in RSAM data or changes in tilt associated with the three dome-building eruptions. ?? 1991 Springer-Verlag.

The exceptional activity and growth of the Southeast Crater, Mount Etna (Italy), between 1996 and 2001

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Behncke, Boris; Neri, Marco; Pecora, Emilio; Zanon, Vittorio

2006-09-01

Between 1971 and 2001, the Southeast Crater was the most productive of the four summit craters of Mount Etna, with activity that can be compared, on a global scale, to the opening phases of the Pu‘u ‘Ō‘ō-Kūpaianaha eruption of Kīlauea volcano, Hawai‘i. The period of highest eruptive rate was between 1996 and 2001, when near-continuous activity occurred in five phases. These were characterized by a wide range of eruptive styles and intensities from quiet, non-explosive lava emission to brief, violent lava-fountaining episodes. Much of the cone growth occurred during these fountaining episodes, totaling 105 events. Many showed complex dynamics such as different eruptive styles at multiple vents, and resulted in the growth of minor edifices on the flanks of the Southeast Crater cone. Small pyroclastic flows were produced during some of the eruptive episodes, when oblique tephra jets showered the steep flanks of the cone with hot bombs and scoriae. Fluctuations in the eruptive style and eruption rates were controlled by a complex interplay between changes in the conduit geometry (including the growth of a shallow magma reservoir under the Southeast Crater), magma supply rates, and flank instability. During this period, volume calculations were made with the aid of GIS and image analysis of video footage obtained by a monitoring telecamera. Between 1996 and 2001, the bulk volume of the cone increased by ~36×106 m3, giving a total (1971 2001) volume of ~72×106 m3. At the same time, the cone gained ~105 m in height, reaching an elevation of about 3,300 m. The total DRE volume of the 1996 2001 products was ~90×106m3. This mostly comprised lava flows (72×106 m3) erupted at the summit and onto the flanks of the cone. These values indicate that the productivity of the Southeast Crater increased fourfold during 1996 2001 with respect to the previous 25 years, coinciding with a general increase in the eruptive output rates and eruption intensity at Etna. This phase of intense summit activity has been followed, since the summer of 2001, by a period of increased structural instability of the volcano, marked by a series of important flank eruptions.

Pyroclastic Density Current Hazards in the Auckland Volcanic Field, New Zealand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brand, B. D.; Gravley, D.; Clarke, A. B.; Bloomberg, S. H.

2012-12-01

The most dangerous phenomena associated with phreatomagmatic eruptions are dilute pyroclastic density currents (PDCs). These are turbulent, ground-hugging sediment gravity currents that travel radially away from the explosive center at up to 100 m/s. The Auckland Volcanic Field (AVF), New Zealand, consists of approximately 50 eruptive centers, at least 39 of which have had explosive phreatomagmatic behaviour. A primary concern for future AVF eruptions is the impact of dilute PDCs in and around the Auckland area. We combine field observations from the Maungataketake tuff ring, which has one of the best exposures of dilute PDC deposits in the AVF, with a quantitative model for flow of and sedimentation from a radially-spreading, steady-state, depth-averaged dilute PDC (modified from Bursik and Woods, 1996 Bull Volcanol 58:175-193). The model allows us to explore the depositional mechanisms, macroscale current dynamics, and potential impact on societal infrastructure of dilute PDCs from a future AVF eruption. The lower portion of the Maungataketake tuff ring pyroclastic deposits contains trunks, limbs and fragments of Podocarp trees (<1 m in diameter) that were blown down by dilute PDCs up to 0.7-0.9 km from the vent. Beyond this trees were encapsulated and buried in growth position up to the total runout distance of 1.6-1.8 km. This observation suggests that the dynamic pressure of the current quickly dropped as it travelled away from source. Using the tree diameter and yield strength of the wood, we calculate that dynamic pressures (Pdyn) of 10-75 kPa are necessary to topple trees of this size and composition. Thus the two main criteria for model success based on the field evidence include (a) Pdyn must be >10 kPa nearer than 0.9 km to the vent, and <10 kPa beyond 0.9 km, and (b) the total run-out distance must be between 1.6 and 1.8 km. Model results suggest the two main forces controlling the runout distance and Pdyn over the extent of the current are sedimentation rate and entrainment of ambient atmosphere, which are a function of the grain size and initial bulk density, thickness and velocity of a given current. Initial velocities of 60 m s-1, initial bulk densities of 35 kg m-3 and initial current thickness of 70 m are the input parameters that reproduce the best fit to our field data. This preliminary validation of the model allows us to estimate the impact of dilute PDCs from future larger phreatomagmatic eruptions. In the case of a dilute PDC traveling 5-7 km from source: Pdyn >35 kPa can be expected within 3 km from source, ensuring complete destruction of the area; Pdyn > 15 kPa up to 5 km from source, resulting in heavy structural damage to most buildings and near destruction of weaker buildings; and Pdyn <10 kPa at ~6 km from source, resulting in severe damage to weaker structures at least up to this distance. This exercise illustrates our ability to combine field measurements with numerical techniques to explore controlling parameters of dilute PDC dynamics. These tools can be used to understand and estimate the damage potential and extent of past and future eruptions in the AVF or other similar volcanically active regions.

Unwinding motion of a twisted active region filament

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yan, X. L.; Xue, Z. K.; Kong, D. F.

To better understand the structures of active region filaments and the eruption process, we study an active region filament eruption in active region NOAA 11082 in detail on 2010 June 22. Before the filament eruption, the opposite unidirectional material flows appeared in succession along the spine of the filament. The rising of the filament triggered two B-class flares at the upper part of the filament. As the bright material was injected into the filament from the sites of the flares, the filament exhibited a rapid uplift accompanying the counterclockwise rotation of the filament body. From the expansion of the filament,more » we can see that the filament consisted of twisted magnetic field lines. The total twist of the filament is at least 5π obtained by using a time slice method. According to the morphology change during the filament eruption, it is found that the active region filament was a twisted flux rope and its unwinding motion was like a solar tornado. We also find that there was a continuous magnetic helicity injection before and during the filament eruption. It is confirmed that magnetic helicity can be transferred from the photosphere to the filament. Using the extrapolated potential fields, the average decay index of the background magnetic fields over the filament is 0.91. Consequently, these findings imply that the mechanism of solar filament eruption could be due to the kink instability and magnetic helicity accumulation.« less

Volcano-tectonic earthquakes: A new tool for estimating intrusive volumes and forecasting eruptions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

White, Randall; McCausland, Wendy

2016-01-01

We present data on 136 high-frequency earthquakes and swarms, termed volcano-tectonic (VT) seismicity, which preceded 111 eruptions at 83 volcanoes, plus data on VT swarms that preceded intrusions at 21 other volcanoes. We find that VT seismicity is usually the earliest reported seismic precursor for eruptions at volcanoes that have been dormant for decades or more, and precedes eruptions of all magma types from basaltic to rhyolitic and all explosivities from VEI 0 to ultraplinian VEI 6 at such previously long-dormant volcanoes. Because large eruptions occur most commonly during resumption of activity at long-dormant volcanoes, VT seismicity is an important precursor for the Earth's most dangerous eruptions. VT seismicity precedes all explosive eruptions of VEI ≥ 5 and most if not all VEI 4 eruptions in our data set. Surprisingly we find that the VT seismicity originates at distal locations on tectonic fault structures at distances of one or two to tens of kilometers laterally from the site of the eventual eruption, and rarely if ever starts beneath the eruption site itself. The distal VT swarms generally occur at depths almost equal to the horizontal distance of the swarm from the summit out to about 15 km distance, beyond which hypocenter depths level out. We summarize several important characteristics of this distal VT seismicity including: swarm-like nature, onset days to years prior to the beginning of magmatic eruptions, peaking of activity at the time of the initial eruption whether phreatic or magmatic, and large non-double couple component to focal mechanisms. Most importantly we show that the intruded magma volume can be simply estimated from the cumulative seismic moment of the VT seismicity from: Log10 V = 0.77 Log ΣMoment - 5.32, with volume, V, in cubic meters and seismic moment in Newton meters. Because the cumulative seismic moment can be approximated from the size of just the few largest events, and is quite insensitive to precise locations, the intruded magma volume can be quickly and easily estimated with few short-period seismic stations. Notable cases in which distal VT events preceded eruptions at long-dormant volcanoes include: Nevado del Ruiz (1984-1985), Pinatubo (1991), Unzen (1989-1995), Soufriere Hills (1995), Shishaldin (1989-1999), Tacana' (1985-1986), Pacaya (1980-1984), Rabaul (1994), and Cotopaxi (2001). Additional cases are recognized at frequently active volcanoes including Popocateptl (2001-2003) and Mauna Loa (1984). We present four case studies (Pinatubo, Soufriere Hills, Unzen, and Tacana') in which we demonstrate the above mentioned VT characteristics prior to eruptions. Using regional data recorded by NEIC, we recognized in near-real time that a huge distal VT swarm was occurring, deduced that a proportionately huge magmatic intrusion was taking place beneath the long dormant Sulu Range, New Britain Island, Papua New Guinea, that it was likely to lead to eruptive activity, and warned Rabaul Volcano Observatory days before a phreatic eruption occurred. This confirms the value of this technique for eruption forecasting. We also present a counter-example where we deduced that a VT swarm at Volcan Cosiguina, Nicaragua, indicated a small intrusion, insufficient to reach the surface and erupt. Finally, we discuss limitations of the method and propose a mechanism by which this distal VT seismicity is triggered by magmatic intrusion.

The LUSI LAB project: a multidisciplinary study of focussed fluid flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mazzini, A.

2012-12-01

The 29th of May 2006 several gas and mud eruption sites suddenly appeared along a fault in the NE of Java, Indonesia. Within weeks several villages were submerged by boiling mud. The most prominent eruption site was named Lusi. To date Lusi is still active. This disaster has forced 50.000 people to be evacuated and an area of more than 7 km2 is covered by mud. The social impact of the eruption and its spectacular dimensions still attract the attention of international media reporting on the "largest mud eruption site on Earth". Our investigations revealed that the Watukosek fault system reactivated after the 27-05-2006 Yogyakarta earthquake allowing the release of overpressured fluids along the fault planes. Sampling results indicate that the main source of clay and fluids was traced from the overpressured units located at ~1500 m depth. Further, analyses and modelling indicate that Lusi gas was generated at high temperatures (>220°C) with maturity and isotopic characteristics corresponding to the oil-prone Eocene, Ngimbang shales situated at 4,400 m. Hydrocarbon, CO2 and helium analyses are consistent with a scenario of deep sited (>4000 m) magmatic intrusions and hydrothermal fluids responsible for the enhanced heat that altered source rocks and/or gas reservoirs. The neighbouring magmatic Arjuno complex and its fluid-pressure system combined with high seismic activity could have played a key role in the Lusi genesis and evolution. Despite the work done, still many unanswered questions remain. What lies beneath Lusi? If Lusi is not a mud volcano, how large is the connected hydrothermal system? How do the frequent seismic activity and the neighbouring Arjuno Welirang volcanic complex effect pulsating Lusi behaviour? What are the mechanisms triggering the eruption? How long will the eruption last? Are more eruptions like this one likely to occur? LUSI LAB is an ambitious project that aims to answer these questions and to perform a multidisciplinary study using Lusi as a unique natural laboratory. Due to its relatively easy accessibility, the geological setting, and the vast scale, the Lusi eruption represents an unprecedented opportunity to study and learn from an ongoing active eruptive system. Detailed investigations on erupting features are difficult and have never been carried out before. The results will be crucial for understanding focused fluid flow systems in other sedimentary basins world-wide, and to unravel issues related to geohazards and palaeoclimate aspects. In order to achieve the aims, the project will use the deployment of multisensory sampling devices within the active feeder channel coupled with a remote-controlled raft and flying device to access and sample the crater and the erupted gases. UV-gas camera imaging will be used to measure the rate and composition of the erupted gases. These data together with a new network of seismometers, will allow the evaluation of the impact that seismicity, local faulting and the neighbouring Arjuno-Welirang volcanic complex have on the long-lasting Lusi activity. The acquired information will provide robust constraints to model the pulsating Lusi behaviour and will be used as initial step to estimate the longevity of the eruption.

Remote sensing and petrological observations on the 2012-2013 fissure eruption at Tolbachik volcano, Kamchatka: Implications for reconstruction of the eruption chronology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Melnikov, Dmitry; Volynets, Anna O.

2015-12-01

We present a reconstruction of the chronological sequence of events that took place during the first days of the 2012-2013 Tolbachik fissure eruption using petrological data and remote sensing methods. We were forced to use this approach because bad weather conditions did not allow direct observations during the first two days of the eruption. We interpreted infrared images from the scanning radiometer VIIRS Suomi NPP and correlated the output with the results of the geochemical study, including comparison of the ash, deposited at the period from 27 to 29 November, with the samples of lava and bombs erupted from the Menyailov and Naboko vents. We argue that the compositional change observed in the eruption products (the decrease of SiO2 concentration and K2O/MgO ratio, increase of MgO concentration and Mg#) started approximately 24 h after the eruption began. At this time the center of activity moved to the southern part of the fissure, where the Naboko group of vents was formed; therefore, this timeframe also characterizes the timing of the Naboko vent opening. The Naboko group of vents remained active until the end of eruption in September 2013.

Implications of historical eruptive-vent migration on the northeast rift zone of Mauna Loa Volcano, Hawaii

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lockwood, John P.

1990-07-01

Five times within the past 138 yr (1852, 1855-1856, 1880-1881, 1942, and 1984), lava flows from vents on the northeast rift zone of Mauna Loa Volcano have reached within a few kilometres of Hilo (the largest city on the Island of Hawaii). Most lavas erupted on this rift zone in historical time have traveled northeastward (toward Hilo), because their eruptive vents have been concentrated north of the rift zone's broad topographic axis. However, with few exceptions each successive historical eruption on the northeast rift zone has occurred farther southeast than the preceding one. Had the 1984 eruptive vents (the most southeasterly yet) opened less than 200 m farther southeast, the bulk of the 1984 lavas would have flowed away from Hilo. If this historical vent-migration pattern continues, the next eruption on the northeast rift zone could send lavas to the southeast, toward less populated areas. The historical Mauna Loa vent-migration patterns mimic the southeastern "younging" of the Hawaiian-Emperor volcanic chain and may be cryptically related to northwestward movement of the Pacific plate. Systematic temporal-spatial vent-migration patterns may characterize eruptive activity at other volcanoes with flank activity and should be considered as an aid to long-term prediction of eruption sites.

Eruptions of Lassen Peak, California, 1914 to 1917

USGS Publications Warehouse

Clynne, Michael A.; Christiansen, Robert L.; Felger, Tracey J.; Stauffer, Peter H.; Hendley, James W.

1999-01-01

On May 22, 1915, an explosive eruption at Lassen Peak, California, the southernmost active volcano in the Cascade Range, devastated nearby areas and rained volcanic ash as far away as 200 miles to the east. This explosion was the most powerful in a 1914–17 series of eruptions that were the last to occur in the Cascades before the 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens, Washington. Recent work by scientists with the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the National Park Service is shedding new light on these eruptions.

Eruption of soufriere volcano on st. Vincent island, 1971-1972.

PubMed

Aspinall, W P; Sigurdsson, H; Shepherd, J B

1973-07-13

The Soufrière volcano in St. Vincent erupted from October 1971 to March 1972, as 80 x 10(6) m(3) of basaltic andesite lava was quietly extruded inside the mile-wide crater. The eruption was largely subaqueous, taking place in the 180-m-deep crater lake, and resulted in the emergence of a steep-sided island. The mild character of the eruption and the absence of seismic activity stand in direct contrast to the highly explosive character of the eruption of 1902 to 1903.

Reconstructing the deadly eruptive events of 1790 CE at Kīlauea Volcano, Hawai‘i

USGS Publications Warehouse

Swanson, Don; Weaver, Samantha J; Houghton, Bruce F.

2014-01-01

A large number of people died during an explosive eruption of Kīlauea Volcano in 1790 CE. Detailed study of the upper part of the Keanakāko‘i Tephra has identified the deposits that may have been responsible for the deaths. Three successive units record shifts in eruption style that agree well with accounts of the eruption based on survivor interviews 46 yr later. First, a wet fall of very fine, accretionary-lapilli–bearing ash created a “cloud of darkness.” People walked across the soft deposit, leaving footprints as evidence. While the ash was still unconsolidated, lithic lapilli fell into it from a high eruption column that was seen from 90 km away. Either just after this tephra fall or during its latest stage, pulsing dilute pyroclastic density currents, probably products of a phreatic eruption, swept across the western flank of Kīlauea, embedding lapilli in the muddy ash and crossing the trail along which the footprints occur. The pyroclastic density currents were most likely responsible for the fatalities, as judged from the reported condition and probable location of the bodies. This reconstruction is relevant today, as similar eruptions will probably occur in the future at Kīlauea and represent its most dangerous and least predictable hazard.

Mechanism of the 1996-97 non-eruptive volcano-tectonic earthquake swarm at Iliamna Volcano, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Roman, D.C.; Power, J.A.

2011-01-01

A significant number of volcano-tectonic(VT) earthquake swarms, some of which are accompanied by ground deformation and/or volcanic gas emissions, do not culminate in an eruption.These swarms are often thought to represent stalled intrusions of magma into the mid- or shallow-level crust.Real-time assessment of the likelihood that a VTswarm will culminate in an eruption is one of the key challenges of volcano monitoring, and retrospective analysis of non-eruptive swarms provides an important framework for future assessments. Here we explore models for a non-eruptive VT earthquake swarm located beneath Iliamna Volcano, Alaska, in May 1996-June 1997 through calculation and inversion of fault-plane solutions for swarm and background periods, and through Coulomb stress modeling of faulting types and hypocenter locations observed during the swarm. Through a comparison of models of deep and shallow intrusions to swarm observations,we aim to test the hypothesis that the 1996-97 swarm represented a shallow intrusion, or "failed" eruption.Observations of the 1996-97 swarm are found to be consistent with several scenarios including both shallow and deep intrusion, most likely involving a relatively small volume of intruded magma and/or a low degree of magma pressurization corresponding to a relatively low likelihood of eruption. ?? 2011 Springer-Verlag.

Systematic change in global patterns of streamflow following volcanic eruptions.

PubMed

Iles, Carley E; Hegerl, Gabriele C

2015-11-01

Following large explosive volcanic eruptions precipitation decreases over much of the globe1-6, particularly in climatologically wet regions4,5. Stratospheric volcanic aerosols reflect sunlight, which reduces evaporation, whilst surface cooling stabilises the atmosphere and reduces its water-holding capacity7. Circulation changes modulate this global precipitation reduction on regional scales1,8-10. Despite the importance of rivers to people, it has been unclear whether volcanism causes detectable changes in streamflow given large natural variability. Here we analyse observational records of streamflow volume for fifty large rivers from around the world which cover between two and 6 major volcanic eruptions in the 20 th and late 19 th century. We find statistically significant reductions in flow following eruptions for the Amazon, Congo, Nile, Orange, Ob, Yenisey and Kolyma amongst others. When data from neighbouring rivers are combined - based on the areas where climate models simulate either an increase or a decrease in precipitation following eruptions - a significant (p<0.1) decrease in streamflow following eruptions is detected in northern South American, central African and high-latitude Asian rivers, and on average across wet tropical and subtropical regions. We also detect a significant increase in southern South American and SW North American rivers. This suggests that future volcanic eruptions could substantially affect global water availability.

Systematic change in global patterns of streamflow following volcanic eruptions

PubMed Central

Iles, Carley E.; Hegerl, Gabriele C.

2016-01-01

Following large explosive volcanic eruptions precipitation decreases over much of the globe1–6, particularly in climatologically wet regions4,5. Stratospheric volcanic aerosols reflect sunlight, which reduces evaporation, whilst surface cooling stabilises the atmosphere and reduces its water-holding capacity7. Circulation changes modulate this global precipitation reduction on regional scales1,8–10. Despite the importance of rivers to people, it has been unclear whether volcanism causes detectable changes in streamflow given large natural variability. Here we analyse observational records of streamflow volume for fifty large rivers from around the world which cover between two and 6 major volcanic eruptions in the 20th and late 19th century. We find statistically significant reductions in flow following eruptions for the Amazon, Congo, Nile, Orange, Ob, Yenisey and Kolyma amongst others. When data from neighbouring rivers are combined - based on the areas where climate models simulate either an increase or a decrease in precipitation following eruptions – a significant (p<0.1) decrease in streamflow following eruptions is detected in northern South American, central African and high-latitude Asian rivers, and on average across wet tropical and subtropical regions. We also detect a significant increase in southern South American and SW North American rivers. This suggests that future volcanic eruptions could substantially affect global water availability. PMID:27279897

Surface deformation induced by magmatic processes at Pacaya Volcano, Guatemala revealed by InSAR

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wnuk, K.; Wauthier, C.

2017-09-01

Pacaya Volcano, Guatemala is a continuously active, basaltic volcano with an unstable western flank. Despite continuous activity since 1961, a lack of high temporal resolution geodetic surveying has prevented detailed modeling of Pacaya's underlying magmatic plumbing system. A new, temporally dense dataset of Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) RADARSAT-2 images, spanning December 2012 to March 2014, show magmatic deformation before and during major eruptions in January and March 2014. Inversion of InSAR surface displacements using simple analytical forward models suggest that three magma bodies are responsible for the observed deformation: (1) a 4 km deep spherical reservoir located northwest of the summit, (2) a 0.4 km deep spherical source located directly west of the summit, and (3) a shallow dike below the summit. Periods of heightened volcanic activity are instigated by magma pulses at depth, resulting in rapid inflation of the edifice. We observe an intrusion cycle at Pacaya that consists of deflation of one or both magma reservoirs followed by dike intrusion. Intrusion volumes are proportional to reservoir volume loss and do not always result in an eruption. Periods of increased activity culminate with larger dike-fed eruptions. Large eruptions are followed by inter-eruptive periods marked by a decrease in crater explosions and a lack of detected deformation. Co-eruptive flank motion appears to have initiated a new stage of volcanic rifting at Pacaya defined by repeated NW-SE oriented dike intrusions. This creates a positive feedback relationship whereby magmatic forcing from eruptive dike intrusions induce flank motion.

The CHARGE association: report of two cases.

PubMed

Venetikidou, A

1993-01-01

Although many reports of the CHARGE association appear in the literature, the dental findings were never discussed before. In this report of two cases, both patients present with delayed eruption of the permanent teeth and a remarkable similarity of the eruption pattern of the mandibular teeth. One lower permanent central incisor is congenitally missing, while the other is malformed. The lower permanent laterals of JM have erupted lingually and interfere with his speech and function of the tongue. Mandibular retrognathism is present. TM had a V-shaped constricted upper arch, which was expanded in a first phase of orthodontic intervention. Fixed appliances are the future considerations for the correction of the malocclusion.

Developing International Guidelines on Volcanic Hazard Assessments for Nuclear Facilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Connor, Charles

2014-05-01

Worldwide, tremendous progress has been made in recent decades in forecasting volcanic events, such as episodes of volcanic unrest, eruptions, and the potential impacts of eruptions. Generally these forecasts are divided into two categories. Short-term forecasts are prepared in response to unrest at volcanoes, rely on geophysical monitoring and related observations, and have the goal of forecasting events on timescales of hours to weeks to provide time for evacuation of people, shutdown of facilities, and implementation of related safety measures. Long-term forecasts are prepared to better understand the potential impacts of volcanism in the future and to plan for potential volcanic activity. Long-term forecasts are particularly useful to better understand and communicate the potential consequences of volcanic events for populated areas around volcanoes and for siting critical infrastructure, such as nuclear facilities. Recent work by an international team, through the auspices of the International Atomic Energy Agency, has focused on developing guidelines for long-term volcanic hazard assessments. These guidelines have now been implemented for hazard assessment for nuclear facilities in nations including Indonesia, the Philippines, Armenia, Chile, and the United States. One any time scale, all volcanic hazard assessments rely on a geologically reasonable conceptual model of volcanism. Such conceptual models are usually built upon years or decades of geological studies of specific volcanic systems, analogous systems, and development of a process-level understanding of volcanic activity. Conceptual models are used to bound potential rates of volcanic activity, potential magnitudes of eruptions, and to understand temporal and spatial trends in volcanic activity. It is these conceptual models that provide essential justification for assumptions made in statistical model development and the application of numerical models to generate quantitative forecasts. It is a tremendous challenge in quantitative volcanic hazard assessments to encompass alternative conceptual models, and to create models that are robust to evolving understanding of specific volcanic systems by the scientific community. A central question in volcanic hazards forecasts is quantifying rates of volcanic activity. Especially for long-dormant volcanic systems, data from the geologic record may be sparse, individual events may be missing or unrecognized in the geologic record, patterns of activity may be episodic or otherwise nonstationary. This leads to uncertainty in forecasting long-term rates of activity. Hazard assessments strive to quantify such uncertainty, for example by comparing observed rates of activity with alternative parametric and nonparametric models. Numerical models are presented that characterize the spatial distribution of potential volcanic events. These spatial density models serve as the basis for application of numerical models of specific phenomena such as development of lava flow, tephra fallout, and a host of other volcanic phenomena. Monte Carlo techniques (random sampling, stratified sampling, importance sampling) are methods used to sample vent location and other key eruption parameters, such as eruption volume, magma rheology, and eruption column height for probabilistic models. The development of coupled scenarios (e.g., the probability of tephra accumulation on a slope resulting in subsequent debris flows) is also assessed through these methods, usually with the aid of event trees. The primary products of long-term forecasts are a statistical model of the conditional probability of the potential effects of volcanism, should an eruption occur, and the probability of such activity occurring. It is emphasized that hazard forecasting is an iterative process, and board consideration must be given to alternative conceptual models of volcanism, weighting of volcanological data in the analyses, and alternative statistical and numerical models. This structure is amenable to expert elicitation in order to weight alternative models and to explore alternative scenarios.

Human reponses to historical eruptions of Etna (Sicily) from 1600 to present and their implications for present-day disaster planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sangster, H.; Chester, D. K.; Duncan, A. M.

2012-04-01

Mount Etna in northeastern Sicily (Italy) rises to over 3000 m, covers an area of ca.1750 km2 and is the most active volcano in Europe. Observations of Etna by literate observers stretch back to the classical era and one of the earliest references to an eruption of Etna was by Pindar in his Pythian Odes, to the event of ca. 474-479 B.C. The history of its activity has been reconstructed by scholars up to the present day and records of eruptions are reasonably complete from the early fifteenth century, reliable from 1669, and document the threats and destruction to human settlements and livelihoods. Effusive and explosive activity has occurred continually throughout the historical period and eruptions of Mount Etna have presented numerous eruption styles, from persistent central crater activity, to periodic flank eruptions. From 1600 to 1669 the activity of Etna was characterised by a high volumetric output of lava with a mean eruption rate of 1.19 m3s-1, this was followed by a pause from flank eruptions and the re-establishment of significant activity from the middle of the eighteenth century. After 1750 the output of lava by flank eruptions was lower than in the previous century, with the mean eruption rate falling to 0.18 m3s-1. This paper summarises: the characteristics of the eruptions that occurred between the period of 1600 to present; the particularities of the societal responses over time and the role of the authorities; and, the important lessons this history holds for the management of present-day civil defence planning in the region. People responded to the eruptions at three levels: as members of a family and extended family; as members of a community and, as citizens of the State. The State, however, was a minor player in responding to these eruptions until the early nineteenth century as the State then became more involved in each successive eruption as the responses moved to a more industrial nature rather than pre-industrial. Today emergencies are closely managed by central government, through the Ministry of Civil Protection (Dipartimento della Protezione Civile - founded in 1992), who can call on the expertise of local authorities (comuni) and scientific bodies, especially the National Institute of Geophysics and Vulcanology in Catania (Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologica INGV - sezione Catania). The nature of the society living on the flanks of Mount Etna has changed over the past nine decades, especially since the late 1960s, and the increasing exposure to volcanic and volcano-related hazards in the Etna Region is strengthening the need for improved communication amongst social scientists, civil defence authorities, the media and the local communities. Educating local people about how to react when a disaster strikes is viewed as an increasingly important element in Civil Defence planning, with examples of how people coped successfully in the past being used to inform people today. Effective communication both in terms of, raising awareness and ensuring that non-scientists have properly understood the associated hazard implications, and implementing emergency responses, is critical in facilitating more effective hazard prevention plans.

Identifying open and closed system behaviors at Tungurahua volcano (Ecuador) using SO2 and seismo-acoustic measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hidalgo, Silvana; Battaglia, Jean; Bernard, Benjamin; Steele, Alexander; Arellano, Santiago; Galle, Bo

2014-05-01

Tungurahua is one of the most active volcanoes in Ecuador. It is located in Central Ecuador, 160 km South of Quito and 8 km South of the touristic town of Baños. Tungurahua had one eruption every century since 1500, with an activity characterized by ash fallouts and pyroclastic and lava flows. The current eruptive period of Tungurahua began in 1999 with multiple episodes of explosive activity that have threatened the local population. The monitoring network is constituted by 5 short period and 5 broadband seismic stations, 4 DOAS permanent instruments, 4 tiltmeters, 2 permanent high resolution GPS, 4 digital cameras and 10 acoustic flow monitors. The correct interpretation of the different data acquired by this network allows a better understanding of the eruptive behavior of Tungurahua in order to provide early warning to the local population. Tungurahua changed its behavior from a continuously erupting volcano, as it was until 2008, to a sporadically erupting one, showing clear quiescence phases lasting from 40 to 184 days, and intense activity phases lasting from 15 to 70 days. Activity phases are characterized by Strombolian and Vulcanian eruptive styles, producing ash fallouts and in a few occasions pyroclastic flows. In terms of hazard to the local population, one of the goals of monitoring Tungurahura is to forecast the onset and evolution of eruptive phases. In particular the occurrence of large Vulcanian explosions which occur when the conduit is closed is a major issue. Since 2010 we focused our study on the relation between SO2 gas emissions, the seismic and acoustic energies of explosions and the tremor amplitudes. The first observation of comparing these different datasets is that the correlation between seismic and SO2 degassing is not straightforward, and actually the relation reflects the conditions at the vent: open or closed. The onset of eruptive phases in open conduit conditions can be identified which leads to an effective eruption forecasting. An example of this behavior is the eruptive phase between December 2009 and March 2010 when SO2 measurements increased 4 days before the amplitude of tremor and 9 days before the occurrence of the first explosions. Conversely, if the vent is closed at the beginning of a phase and no evident seismic precursors are observed forecasting is hardly possible. During an ongoing eruptive phase, the relation between these parameters allows to identify periods when the conduit is totally open as degassing may occur almost without generating any seismicity. Therefore the forecasting of escalating open conduit activity or a partial closing of the system is possible. Such a case was observed and forecasted on December 2011. In this work, we present observational evidence of these mechanisms which are used to identify possible patterns of evolution of the activity, contributing to a more effective volcanic hazard assessment.

Ilchulbong tuff cone, Jeju Island, Korea, revisited: A compound monogenetic volcano involving multiple magma batches, shifting vents, and discrete eruptive phases

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sohn, Y.; Brenna, M.; Smith, I. E.; Nemeth, K.; White, J. D.; Murtagh, R.; Jeon, Y.; Kwon, C.; Cronin, S. J.

2010-12-01

Ilchulbong (Sunrise Peak) tuff cone is a UNESCO World Heritage site that owes its scientific importance to the outstanding coastal exposures that surround it. It is also one of the classic sites that provided the sedimentary evidence for the primary pyroclastic processes that occur during phreatomagmatic basaltic eruptions. It has been long considered, based on the cone morphology, that this classic cone was produced via eruption from a single vent site. Reanalysis of the detailed sedimentary sequence has now revealed that two subtle paraconformities occur in this deposition sequence, one representing a significant time break of perhaps days to weeks or months, during which erosion and compaction of the lower cone occurred, the conduit cooled and solidified and a subsequent resumption of eruption took place in a new vent location. Detailed geochemical study of the juvenile clasts through this cone reveals that three separate alkali basaltic magma batches were erupted, the first and third erupted may be genetically related, with the latter showing evidence for longer periods of shallow-level fractionation. The second magma batch erupted was generated in a different mantle source area. Reconstructing the eruption sequence, the lower Ilchulbong cone was formed by eruption of magma 1. Cessation of eruption was accompanied by erosion to generate a volcano-wide unconformity, associated with reworked deposits in the lower cone flanks. The eruption resumed with magma 2 that, due to the cooled earlier conduit, was forced to erupt in a new site to the west of the initial vent. This formed the middle cone sequence over the initially formed structure. The third magma batch erupted with little or no interval after magma 2 from the same vent location, associated with cone instability and slumping, and making up the deposits of the upper cone. These results demonstrate how critical the examination for sedimentary evidence for time breaks in such eruption sequences is for detecting potential shifts in eruption chemistry and vent location. It appears that if eruption breaks are short, successive magma batches follow the same path, whereas if pauses are greater than a critical period, conduit solidification will force vent migration for subsequent magma batches. This has important implications for examining the controls of vent migration at other monogenetic volcanoes and for emergency management planning during future similar types of eruptions.

Eruption of a Multiple-Turn Helical Magnetic Flux Tube in a Large Flare: Evidence for External and Internal Reconnection that Fits the Breakout Model of Solar Magnetic Eruptions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gary, G. Allen; Moore, R. L.

2003-01-01

We present observations and an interpretation of a unique multiple-turn spiral flux tube eruption from AR10030 on 2002 July 15. The TRACE CIV observations clearly show a flux tube that is helical and that is erupting from within a sheared magnetic field. These observations are interpreted in the context of the breakout model for magnetic field explosions. The initiation of the helix eruption starts 25 seconds after the peak of the flare s strongest impulsive spike of microwave gryosynchrotron radiation early in the flare s explosive phase, implying that the sheared core field is not the site of the initial reconnection. Within the quadrupolar configuration of the active region, the external and internal reconnection sites are identified in each of two consecutive eruptive flares that produce a double CME. The first external breakout reconnection apparently releases an underlying sheared core field and allows it to erupt, leading to internal reconnection in the wake of the erupting helix. This internal reconnection heats the two-ribbon flare and might or might not produce the helix. These events lead to the first CME and are followed by a second breakout that initiates a second and larger halo CME. The strong magnetic shear in the region is associated with rapid proper motion and evolution of the active region. The multiple-turn helix originates from above a sheared-field magnetic inversion line within a filament channel, and starts to erupt only after fast breakout reconnection has started. These observations are counter to the standard flare model and support the breakout model for eruptive flare initiation. However, the observations are compatible with internal reconnection in a sheared magnetic arcade in the formation and eruption of the helix.

A Comparative Study of the Eruptive and Non-eruptive Flares Produced by the Largest Active Region of Solar Cycle 24

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sarkar, Ranadeep; Srivastava, Nandita

2018-02-01

We investigate the morphological and magnetic characteristics of solar active region (AR) NOAA 12192. AR 12192 was the largest region of Solar Cycle 24; it underwent noticeable growth and produced 6 X-class flares, 22 M-class flares, and 53 C-class flares in the course of its disc passage. However, the most peculiar fact of this AR is that it was associated with only one CME in spite of producing several X-class flares. In this work, we carry out a comparative study between the eruptive and non-eruptive flares produced by AR 12192. We find that the magnitude of abrupt and permanent changes in the horizontal magnetic field and Lorentz force are significantly smaller in the case of the confined flares compared to the eruptive one. We present the areal evolution of AR 12192 during its disc passage. We find the flare-related morphological changes to be weaker during the confined flares, whereas the eruptive flare exhibits a rapid and permanent disappearance of penumbral area away from the magnetic neutral line after the flare. Furthermore, from the extrapolated non-linear force-free magnetic field, we examine the overlying coronal magnetic environment over the eruptive and non-eruptive zones of the AR. We find that the critical decay index for the onset of torus instability was achieved at a lower height over the eruptive flaring region, than for the non-eruptive core area. These results suggest that the decay rate of the gradient of overlying magnetic-field strength may play a decisive role to determine the CME productivity of the AR. In addition, the magnitude of changes in the flare-related magnetic characteristics are found to be well correlated with the nature of solar eruptions.

Recent geologic history of lake Atitlán, a caldera lake in western Guatemala

USGS Publications Warehouse

Newhall, C.G.; Paull, C.K.; Bradbury, J.P.; Higuera-Gundy, A.; Poppe, L.J.; Self, S.; Bonar, Sharpless N.; Ziagos, J.

1987-01-01

Heat-flow measurements inside and just outside the caldera are high (290 and 230 mW m−2), suggesting hydrothermal convection and a shallow heat source. High heat flow, a geological record of post-caldera silicic eruptions, and unexplained fluctuations of lake level (episodic tumescence ofthe lake floor?) suggest that magma remains beneath Lake Atitlán and that future eruptions are possible.

Reconstructing the eruption magnitude and energy budgets for the pre-historic eruption of the monogenetic ˜5 ka Mt. Gambier Volcanic Complex, south-eastern Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Otterloo, Jozua; Cas, Raymond A. F.

2013-12-01

Understanding explosive volcanic eruptions, especially phreatomagmatic eruptions, their intensities and energy budgets is of major importance when it comes to risk and hazard studies. With only a few historic occurrences of phreatomagmatic activity, a large amount of our understanding comes from the study of pre-historic volcanic centres, which causes issues when it comes to preservation and vegetation. In this research, we show that using 3D geometrical modelling it is possible to obtain volume estimates for different deposits of a pre-historic, complex, monogenetic centre, the Mt. Gambier Volcanic Complex, south-eastern Australia. Using these volumes, we further explore the energy budgets and the magnitude of this eruption (VEI 4), including dispersal patterns (eruption columns varying between 5 and 10 km, dispersed towards north-east to south), to further our understanding of intraplate, monogenetic eruptions involving phreatomagmatic activity. We also compare which thermodynamic model fits best in the creation of the maar crater of Mt. Gambier: the major-explosion-dominated model or the incremental growth model. In this case, the formation of most of the craters can best be explained by the latter model.

Solar Activity and Solar Eruptions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sterling, Alphonse C.

2006-01-01

Our Sun is a dynamic, ever-changing star. In general, its atmosphere displays major variation on an 11-year cycle. Throughout the cycle, the atmosphere occasionally exhibits large, sudden outbursts of energy. These "solar eruptions" manifest themselves in the form of solar flares, filament eruptions, coronal mass ejections (CMEs), and energetic particle releases. They are of high interest to scientists both because they represent fundamental processes that occur in various astrophysical context, and because, if directed toward Earth, they can disrupt Earth-based systems and satellites. Research over the last few decades has shown that the source of the eruptions is localized regions of energy-storing magnetic field on the Sun that become destabilized, leading to a release of the stored energy. Solar scientists have (probably) unraveled the basic outline of what happens in these eruptions, but many details are still not understood. In recent years we have been studying what triggers these magnetic eruptions, using ground-based and satellite-based solar observations in combination with predictions from various theoretical models. We will present an overview of solar activity and solar eruptions, give results from some of our own research, and discuss questions that remain to be explored.

Overview of the precursors and dynamics of the 2012-13 basaltic fissure eruption of Tolbachik Volcano, Kamchatka, Russia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Belousov, Alexander; Belousova, Marina; Edwards, Benjamin; Volynets, Anna; Melnikov, Dmitry

2015-12-01

We present a broad overview of the 2012-13 flank fissure eruption of Plosky Tolbachik Volcano in the central Kamchatka Peninsula. The eruption lasted more than nine months and produced approximately 0.55 km3 DRE (volume recalculated to a density of 2.8 g/cm3) of basaltic trachyandesite magma. The 2012-13 eruption of Tolbachik is one of the most voluminous historical eruptions of mafic magma at subduction related volcanoes globally, and it is the second largest at Kamchatka. The eruption was preceded by five months of elevated seismicity and ground inflation, both of which peaked a day before the eruption commenced on 27 November 2012. The batch of high-Al magma ascended from depths of 5-10 km; its apical part contained 54-55 wt.% SiO2, and the main body 52-53 wt.% SiO2. The eruption started by the opening of a 6 km-long radial fissure on the southwestern slope of the volcano that fed multi-vent phreatomagmatic and magmatic explosive activity, as well as intensive effusion of lava with an initial discharge of > 440 m3/s. After 10 days the eruption continued only at the lower part of the fissure, where explosive and effusive activity of Hawaiian-Strombolian type occurred from a lava pond in the crater of the main growing scoria cone. The discharge rate for the nine month long, effusion-dominated eruption gradually declined from 140 to 18 m3/s and formed a compound lava field with a total area of 36 km2; the effusive activity evolved from high-discharge channel-fed 'a'a lavas to dominantly low-discharge tube-fed pahoehoe lavas. On 23 August, the effusion of lava ceased and the intra-crater lava pond drained. Weak Strombolian-type explosions continued for several more days on the crater bottom until the end of the eruption around 5 September 2013. Based on a broad array of new data collected during this eruption, we develop a model for the magma storage and transport system of Plosky Tolbachik that links the storage zones of the two main genetically related magma types of the volcano (high-Al and high-Mg basalts) with the clusters of local seismicity. The model explains why precursory seismicity and dynamics of the 2012-13 eruption was drastically different from those of the previous eruption of the volcano in 1975-76.

Volcanic eruptions on mid-ocean ridges: New evidence from the superfast spreading East Pacific Rise, 17°-19°S

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sinton, John; Bergmanis, Eric; Rubin, Ken; Batiza, Rodey; Gregg, Tracy K. P.; Grönvold, Karl; Macdonald, Ken C.; White, Scott M.

2002-06-01

Side-scan sonar, submersible observations and sampling of lava flows from the East Pacific Rise, 17°-19°S constrain the character and variability of submarine volcanic eruptions along mid-ocean ridges. Nine separate lava sequences were mapped using relative age and lithological contrasts among recovered samples. Axial lengths activated during eruptive episodes range from ~1 to >18 km; individual flow field areas vary from <1 to >19 km2. Estimated erupted volumes range from <1 to >200 × 106 m3. The largest unit is the chemically uniform Animal Farm lava near 18°37'S. The youngest lava is the Aldo-Kihi flow field, 17°24'-34'S, probably erupted in the early 1990s from a fissure system extending >18 km along axis. Near 18°33'S two distinct lava compositions with uniform sediment cover were recovered from lava that buries older faulted terrain. The boundary in lava composition coincides with a change in depth to the top of an axial magma lens seismic reflector, consistent with magmas from two separate reservoirs being erupted in the same event. Chemical compositions from throughout the area indicate that lavas with identical compositions can be emplaced in separate volcanic eruptions within individual segments. A comparison of our results to global data on submarine mid-ocean ridge eruptions suggests consistent dependencies of erupted volume, activated fissure lengths, and chemical heterogeneity with spreading rate, consistent with expected eruptive characteristics from ridges with contrasting thermal properties and magma reservoir depths.

The Eruption Forecasting Information System (EFIS) database project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ogburn, Sarah; Harpel, Chris; Pesicek, Jeremy; Wellik, Jay; Pallister, John; Wright, Heather

2016-04-01

The Eruption Forecasting Information System (EFIS) project is a new initiative of the U.S. Geological Survey-USAID Volcano Disaster Assistance Program (VDAP) with the goal of enhancing VDAP's ability to forecast the outcome of volcanic unrest. The EFIS project seeks to: (1) Move away from relying on the collective memory to probability estimation using databases (2) Create databases useful for pattern recognition and for answering common VDAP questions; e.g. how commonly does unrest lead to eruption? how commonly do phreatic eruptions portend magmatic eruptions and what is the range of antecedence times? (3) Create generic probabilistic event trees using global data for different volcano 'types' (4) Create background, volcano-specific, probabilistic event trees for frequently active or particularly hazardous volcanoes in advance of a crisis (5) Quantify and communicate uncertainty in probabilities A major component of the project is the global EFIS relational database, which contains multiple modules designed to aid in the construction of probabilistic event trees and to answer common questions that arise during volcanic crises. The primary module contains chronologies of volcanic unrest, including the timing of phreatic eruptions, column heights, eruptive products, etc. and will be initially populated using chronicles of eruptive activity from Alaskan volcanic eruptions in the GeoDIVA database (Cameron et al. 2013). This database module allows us to query across other global databases such as the WOVOdat database of monitoring data and the Smithsonian Institution's Global Volcanism Program (GVP) database of eruptive histories and volcano information. The EFIS database is in the early stages of development and population; thus, this contribution also serves as a request for feedback from the community.

Long-term eruptive activity at a submarine arc volcano.

PubMed

Embley, Robert W; Chadwick, William W; Baker, Edward T; Butterfield, David A; Resing, Joseph A; de Ronde, Cornel E J; Tunnicliffe, Verena; Lupton, John E; Juniper, S Kim; Rubin, Kenneth H; Stern, Robert J; Lebon, Geoffrey T; Nakamura, Ko-ichi; Merle, Susan G; Hein, James R; Wiens, Douglas A; Tamura, Yoshihiko

2006-05-25

Three-quarters of the Earth's volcanic activity is submarine, located mostly along the mid-ocean ridges, with the remainder along intraoceanic arcs and hotspots at depths varying from greater than 4,000 m to near the sea surface. Most observations and sampling of submarine eruptions have been indirect, made from surface vessels or made after the fact. We describe here direct observations and sampling of an eruption at a submarine arc volcano named NW Rota-1, located 60 km northwest of the island of Rota (Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands). We observed a pulsating plume permeated with droplets of molten sulphur disgorging volcanic ash and lapilli from a 15-m diameter pit in March 2004 and again in October 2005 near the summit of the volcano at a water depth of 555 m (depth in 2004). A turbid layer found on the flanks of the volcano (in 2004) at depths from 700 m to more than 1,400 m was probably formed by mass-wasting events related to the eruption. Long-term eruptive activity has produced an unusual chemical environment and a very unstable benthic habitat exploited by only a few mobile decapod species. Such conditions are perhaps distinctive of active arc and hotspot volcanoes.

The critical role of volcano monitoring in risk reduction

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tilling, R.I.

2008-01-01

Data from volcano-monitoring studies constitute the only scientifically valid basis for short-term forecasts of a future eruption, or of possible changes during an ongoing eruption. Thus, in any effective hazards-mitigation program, a basic strategy in reducing volcano risk is the initiation or augmentation of volcano monitoring at historically active volcanoes and also at geologically young, but presently dormant, volcanoes with potential for reactivation. Beginning with the 1980s, substantial progress in volcano-monitoring techniques and networks - ground-based as well space-based - has been achieved. Although some geochemical monitoring techniques (e.g., remote measurement of volcanic gas emissions) are being increasingly applied and show considerable promise, seismic and geodetic methods to date remain the techniques of choice and are the most widely used. Availability of comprehensive volcano-monitoring data was a decisive factor in the successful scientific and governmental responses to the reawakening of Mount St. Helens (Washington, USA) in 1980 and, more recently, to the powerful explosive eruptions at Mount Pinatubo (Luzon, Philippines) in 1991. However, even with the ever-improving state-ofthe-art in volcano monitoring and predictive capability, the Mount St. Helens and Pinatubo case histories unfortunately still represent the exceptions, rather than the rule, in successfully forecasting the most likely outcome of volcano unrest.

Catalog of the historically active volcanoes of Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Miller, T.P.; McGimsey, R.G.; Richter, D.H.; Riehle, J.R.; Nye, C.J.; Yount, M.E.; Dumoulin, Julie A.

1998-01-01

Alaska hosts within its borders over 80 major volcanic centers that have erupted during Holocene time (< 10,000 years). At least 29 of these volcanic centers (table 1) had historical eruptions and 12 additional volcanic centers may have had historical eruptions. Historical in Alaska generally means the period since 1760 when explorers, travelers, and inhabitants kept written records. These 41 volcanic centers have been the source for >265 eruptions reported from Alaska volcanoes. With the exception of Wrangell volcano, all the centers are in, or near, the Aleutian volcanic arc, which extends 2500 km from Hayes volcano 145 km west of Anchorage in the Alaska-Aleutian Range to Buldir Island in the western Aleutian Islands (fig. 1). The volcanic arc, a subduction-related feature associated with underthrusting of the Pacific plate beneath the North American plate is divided between oceanic island arc and continental margin segments, the boundary occurring at about 165° W longitude (fig. 1). An additional 7 volcanic centers in the Aleutian arc (table 2; fig. 1 A) have active fumarole fields but no reported historical eruptions.This report discusses the location, physiography and structure, eruptive history, and geology of those volcanoes in Alaska that have experienced one or more eruptions that have been recorded in the written history (i.e., in historical time). It is part of the group of catalogs entitled Catalogue of Active Volcanoes of the World published beginning in 1951 under the auspices of the International Association of Volcanology and Chemistry of the Earth's Interior (IAVCEI). A knowledge of the information contained in such catalogs aids in understanding the type and scale of activity that might be expected during a particular eruption, the hazards the eruption may pose, and even the prediction of eruptions. The catalog will thus be of value not only to the inhabitants of Alaska but to government agencies concerned with emergency response, air traffic operations, and weather, as well as to industry and scientists. The combination of the hazard posed by volcanic ash to jet aircraft and the heavy use of international air routes located parallel to, and on either side of, the Aleutian volcanic arc means that even remote volcanoes in Alaska now pose significant hazards to life and property.Although this report is concerned with historical eruptions from Alaskan volcanoes, other volcanoes in Alaska have erupted in the past 10,000 years and might therefore be expected to erupt again. Several Holocene volcanic centers in the Aleutian arc have no reported historical activity. Elsewhere in Alaska the Bering Sea basalt fields cover large areas of the Yukon Delta, Seward Peninsula, and several of the islands of the Bering Sea. Holocene centers also occur in the Wrangell Mountains and in isolated occurrences in the interior and southeastern Alaska. Eruptions from these centers have occurred within the past several hundred years but none were transcribed in the written record. Moodie and others (1992), however, report oral traditions among the Northern Athapaskan Indians of the southwestern Yukon Territory that may record the second and younger deposition of the White River Ash circa A.D. 720. This lobe of the White River Ash was deposited during the paroxysmal eruption of Churchill volcano in the Wrangell Mountains of eastcentral Alaska (McGimsey and others, 1992; Richter and others, 1995).

How Much Energy Can Be Stored in Solar Active Region Magnetic Fields?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Linker, J.; Downs, C.; Torok, T.; Titov, V. S.; Lionello, R.; Mikic, Z.; Riley, P.

2015-12-01

Major solar eruptions such as X-class flares and very fast coronal mass ejections usually originate in active regions on the Sun. The energy that powers these events is believed to be stored as free magnetic energy (energy above the potential field state) prior to eruption. While coronal magnetic fields are not in general force-free, active regions have very strong magnetic fields and at low coronal heights the plasma beta is therefore very small, making the field (in equilibrium) essentially force-free. The Aly-Sturrock theorem shows that the energy of a fully force-free field cannot exceed the energy of the so-called open field. If the theorem holds, this places an upper limit on the amount of free energy that can be stored: the maximum free energy (MFE) is the difference between the open field energy and the potential field energy of the active region. In thermodynamic MHD simulations of a major eruption (the July 14, 2000 'Bastille' day event) and a modest event (February 13, 2009, we have found that the MFE indeed bounds the energy stored prior to eruption. We compute the MFE for major eruptive events in cycles 23 and 24 to investigate the maximum amount of energy that can be stored in solar active regions.Research supported by AFOSR, NASA, and NSF.

Alaska volcanoes guidebook for teachers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Adleman, Jennifer N.

2011-01-01

Alaska’s volcanoes, like its abundant glaciers, charismatic wildlife, and wild expanses inspire and ignite scientific curiosity and generate an ever-growing source of questions for students in Alaska and throughout the world. Alaska is home to more than 140 volcanoes, which have been active over the last 2 million years. About 90 of these volcanoes have been active within the last 10,000 years and more than 50 of these have been active since about 1700. The volcanoes in Alaska make up well over three-quarters of volcanoes in the United States that have erupted in the last 200 years. In fact, Alaska’s volcanoes erupt so frequently that it is almost guaranteed that an Alaskan will experience a volcanic eruption in his or her lifetime, and it is likely they will experience more than one. It is hard to imagine a better place for students to explore active volcanism and to understand volcanic hazards, phenomena, and global impacts. Previously developed teachers’ guidebooks with an emphasis on the volcanoes in Hawaii Volcanoes National Park (Mattox, 1994) and Mount Rainier National Park in the Cascade Range (Driedger and others, 2005) provide place-based resources and activities for use in other volcanic regions in the United States. Along the lines of this tradition, this guidebook serves to provide locally relevant and useful resources and activities for the exploration of numerous and truly unique volcanic landscapes in Alaska. This guidebook provides supplemental teaching materials to be used by Alaskan students who will be inspired to become educated and prepared for inevitable future volcanic activity in Alaska. The lessons and activities in this guidebook are meant to supplement and enhance existing science content already being taught in grade levels 6–12. Correlations with Alaska State Science Standards and Grade Level Expectations adopted by the Alaska State Department of Education and Early Development (2006) for grades six through eleven are listed at the beginning of each activity. A complete explanation, including the format of the Alaska State Science Standards and Grade Level Expectations, is available at the beginning of each grade link at http://www.eed.state.ak.us/tls/assessment/GLEHome.html.

Multi-wavelength and High-resolution Observations of Solar Eruptive Activities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shen, Y. D.

2014-09-01

In recent years, various solar eruptive activities have been observed in the solar atmosphere, such as solar flares, filament eruptions, jets, coronal mass ejections (CMEs), and magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) waves. Previous observations have indicated that solar magnetic field plays a dominant role in the processes of all kinds of solar activities. Since many large-scale solar eruptive activities can cause significant effects on the space environment of the Earth as well as the human life, studying and forecasting the solar activities are urgent tasks for us. In addition, the Sun is the nearest star to the Earth, so that people can directly observe and study it in detail. Hence, studying the Sun can also provide a reference to study other stars in the universe. This thesis focuses on the multi-wavelength and high-resolution observations of three types of solar eruptive activities: filament eruptions, coronal jets, and coronal MHD waves. By analyzing various observations taken by ground-based and space-borne instruments, we try to understand the inherent physical mechanisms, and construct models to interpret different kinds of solar eruptive activities. The triggering mechanism and the cause of a failed filament eruption are studied in Chapter 3, which indicates that the energy released in the flare is a key factor to the fate of the filament. Two successive filament eruptions are studied in Chapter 4, which indicates that the magnetic implosion could be the physical linkage between them, and the structures of coronal magnetic fields are important for producing sympathetic eruptions. A magnetic unwinding jet and a blowout jet are studied in Chapters 5 and 6, respectively. The former exhibits obvious radial expansion, which undergoes three distinct phases: the slow expansion phase, the fast expansion phase, and the steady phase. In addition, calculation indicates that the non-potential magnetic field in the jet can supply sufficient energy for producing the unwinding jet. The latter is associated with a simultaneous bubble-like and a jet-like CME. It is found that the jet-like CME is driven by the reconnection between the closed field and the ambient open field, while the bubble-like CME is associated with the mini-filament confined by the closed field. In Chapter 7, a quasi-periodic fast propagating (QFP) magnetosonic wave and the associated flare are studied. It is found that the wave and the flare have the same periods, suggesting their common origin. In addition, the leakage of photospheric p-mode oscillation to the corona is also an important source of QFP waves. Large-scale coronal waves are studied in Chapters 8 and 9. It is found that coronal waves can be observed in the low solar atmosphere like the top of the photosphere. Based on the analysis, we propose that large-scale coronal waves are fast magnetosonic or shock waves, which are driven by the expanding flanks of the associated CMEs. A short summary and unsolved problems are given in Chapter 10. Along with the fast development of many new solar telescopes, high quality observations will certainly help us to reveal the true physics behind various solar eruptive activities.

Probabilistic eruption forecasting at short and long time scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marzocchi, Warner; Bebbington, Mark S.

2012-10-01

Any effective volcanic risk mitigation strategy requires a scientific assessment of the future evolution of a volcanic system and its eruptive behavior. Some consider the onus should be on volcanologists to provide simple but emphatic deterministic forecasts. This traditional way of thinking, however, does not deal with the implications of inherent uncertainties, both aleatoric and epistemic, that are inevitably present in observations, monitoring data, and interpretation of any natural system. In contrast to deterministic predictions, probabilistic eruption forecasting attempts to quantify these inherent uncertainties utilizing all available information to the extent that it can be relied upon and is informative. As with many other natural hazards, probabilistic eruption forecasting is becoming established as the primary scientific basis for planning rational risk mitigation actions: at short-term (hours to weeks or months), it allows decision-makers to prioritize actions in a crisis; and at long-term (years to decades), it is the basic component for land use and emergency planning. Probabilistic eruption forecasting consists of estimating the probability of an eruption event and where it sits in a complex multidimensional time-space-magnitude framework. In this review, we discuss the key developments and features of models that have been used to address the problem.

Leveraging America’s Aircraft Carrier Capabilities. Exploring New Combat and Noncombat Roles and Missions for the U.S. Carrier Fleet

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-01-01

There is always volcanic activity on the Hawaiian Islands. This vignette assumes that the volcano of Kilauea on the Big Island ( Hawaii ) erupts with...has occurred in Hawaii and to the volca- no’s internal configuration that could result in an explosive eruption. Usually, the Kilauea volcano , unlike...seismic activity on Hawaii , the “Big Island,” picks up considerably. In turn, the Kilauea volcano begins a series of vio- lent eruptions of

Groundwater pressure changes and crustal deformation before and after the 2007 and 2014 eruptions of Mt. Ontake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koizumi, Naoji; Sato, Tsutomu; Kitagawa, Yuichi; Ochi, Tadafumi

2016-03-01

Volcanic activity generally causes crustal deformation, which sometimes induces groundwater changes, and both of these phenomena are sometimes detected before volcanic eruptions. Therefore, investigations of crustal deformation and groundwater changes can be useful for predicting volcanic eruptions. The Geological Survey of Japan, National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology, has been observing groundwater pressure at Ohtaki observatory (GOT) since 1998. GOT is about 10 km southeast of the summit of Mt. Ontake. During this observation period, Mt. Ontake has erupted twice, in 2007 and in 2014. Before the 2007 eruption, the groundwater pressure at GOT clearly dropped, but it did not change before or after the 2014 eruption. These observations are consistent with the crustal deformation observed by Global Navigation Satellite System stations of the Geospatial Information Authority of Japan. The difference between the 2007 and 2014 eruptions can be explained if a relatively large magma intrusion occurred before the 2007 eruption but no or a small magma intrusion before the 2014 eruption.

Satellite geological and geophysical remote sensing of Iceland

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Williams, R. S., Jr. (Principal Investigator)

1978-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. The ERTS imagery has sufficient resolution to map, from MSS color composites, areas of altered ground caused by high temperature geothermal activity at the Namafjall, Torfajokull, and Reykjanes geothermal areas. The major axes of the fallout pattern of tephra from the May - July 1970 volcanic eruption from Hekla Volcano can be mapped where sufficient depth of deposition was present to seriously affect the normal vegetation. Lava flows from the 1961 volcanic eruption at Askja; some of the lava flows from the 1947-48 eruption, and and all of the lava flows from the 1970 eruption at Hekla; and the areas covered by tephra and lava from the 1973 eruption on Heimaey could be delineated. Low sun angle imagery of less than 10 deg of snow covered terrain was particularly valuable in mapping structural and volcanic features concealed beneath glacial ice in the active volcanic zones of Iceland.

Long-term changes in explosive and effusive behaviour at andesitic arc volcanoes: Chronostratigraphy of the Centre Hills Volcano, Montserrat

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coussens, Maya; Cassidy, Michael; Watt, Sebastian F. L.; Jutzeler, Martin; Talling, Peter J.; Barfod, Dan; Gernon, Thomas M.; Taylor, Rex; Hatter, Stuart J.; Palmer, Martin R.; Montserrat Volcano Observatory

2017-03-01

Volcanism on Montserrat (Lesser Antilles arc) has migrated southwards since the formation of the Silver Hills 2.5 Ma, and has formed three successively active volcanic centres. The Centre Hills volcano was the focus of volcanism from 1-0.4 Ma, before activity commenced at the currently active Soufrière Hills volcano. The history of activity at these two volcanoes provides an opportunity to investigate the pattern of volcano behaviour on an andesitic arc island over the lifetime of individual volcanoes. Here, we describe the pyroclastic stratigraphy of subaerial exposures around central Montserrat; identifying 11 thick (> 1 m) pumiceous units derived from sustained explosive eruptions of Centre Hills from 0.8-0.4 Ma. Over 10 other, less well- exposed pumiceous units have also been identified. The pumice-rich units are interbedded with andesite lava breccias derived from effusive, dome-forming eruptions of Centre Hills. The stratigraphy indicates that large (up to magnitude 5) explosive eruptions occurred throughout the history of Centre Hills, alongside effusive activity. This behaviour at Centre Hills contrasts with Soufrière Hills, where deposits from sustained explosive eruptions are much less common and restricted to early stages of activity at the volcano, from 175-130 ka. Subsequent eruptions at Soufriere Hills have been dominated by andesitic effusive eruptions. The bulk composition, petrography and mineral chemistry of volcanic rocks from Centre Hills and Soufrière Hills are similar throughout the history of both volcanoes, except for occasional, transient departures to different magma compositions, which mark shifts in vent location or dominant eruption style. For example, the final recorded eruption of Centre Hills, before the initiation of activity at Soufrière Hills, was more silicic than any other identified eruption on Montserrat; and the basaltic South Soufrière Hills episode marked the transition to the current stage of predominantly effusive Soufrière Hills activity. The compositional stability observed throughout the history of Centre Hills and Soufrière Hills suggests that a predominance towards effusive or explosive eruption styles is not driven by major compositional shifts of magma, but may reflect local changes in long-term magma storage conditions that characterise individual episodes (on 105 year timescales) of volcanism on Montserrat. Supplementary Table 2: Complete XRF analyses for all analysed samples Supplementary Table 3: Complete ICP-MS analyses for all analysed samples. Supplementary Table 4: Plagioclase composition and precision data from SEM analysis Supplementary Table 5: Clinopyroxene composition and precision data from SEM analysis Supplementary Table 6: Orthopyroxene composition and precision data from SEM analysis Supplementary Table 7: Amphibole composition and precision data from SEM analysis Supplementary Table 8: Glass compositions from EMP analysis Supplementary Table 9: Standard Deviation of glass compositions from EMP analysis. Supplementary Table 10: Isotopic composition of argon from plagioclase crystals from select units. Data obtained using an ARGUS V multi-collector mass spectrometer.

PRE-ERUPTION OSCILLATIONS IN THIN AND LONG FEATURES IN A QUIESCENT FILAMENT

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Joshi, Anand D.; Hanaoka, Yoichiro; Suematsu, Yoshinori

We investigate the eruption of a quiescent filament located close to an active region. Large-scale activation was observed in only half of the filament in the form of pre-eruption oscillations. Consequently only this half erupted nearly 30 hr after the oscillations commenced. Time-slice diagrams of 171 Å images from the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly were used to study the oscillations. These were observed in several thin and long features connecting the filament spine to the chromosphere below. This study traces the origin of such features and proposes their possible interpretation. Small-scale magnetic flux cancellation accompanied by a brightening was observed atmore » the footpoint of the features shortly before their appearance, in images recorded by the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager. A slow rise of the filament was detected in addition to the oscillations, indicating a gradual loss of equilibrium. Our analysis indicates that a change in magnetic field connectivity between two neighbouring active regions and the quiescent filament resulted in a weakening of the overlying arcade of the filament, leading to its eruption. It is also suggested that the oscillating features are filament barbs, and the oscillations are a manifestation during the pre-eruption phase of the filaments.« less

Mechanism of explosive eruptions of Kilauea Volcano, Hawaii

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dvorak, J.J.

1992-01-01

A small explosive eruption of Kilauea Volcano, Hawaii, occurred in May 1924. The eruption was preceded by rapid draining of a lava lake and transfer of a large volume of magma from the summit reservoir to the east rift zone. This lowered the magma column, which reduced hydrostatic pressure beneath Halemaumau and allowed groundwater to flow rapidly into areas of hot rock, producing a phreatic eruption. A comparison with other events at Kilauea shows that the transfer of a large volume of magma out of the summit reservoir is not sufficient to produce a phreatic eruption. For example, the volume transferred at the beginning of explosive activity in May 1924 was less than the volumes transferred in March 1955 and January-February 1960, when no explosive activity occurred. Likewise, draining of a lava lake and deepening of the floor of Halemaumau, which occurred in May 1922 and August 1923, were not sufficient to produce explosive activity. A phreatic eruption of Kilauea requires both the transfer of a large volume of magma from the summit reservoir and the rapid removal of magma from near the surface, where the surrounding rocks have been heated to a sufficient temperature to produce steam explosions when suddenly contacted by groundwater. ?? 1992 Springer-Verlag.

The Hawaiian Volcano Observatory's current approach to forecasting lava flow hazards (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kauahikaua, J. P.

2013-12-01

Hawaiian Volcanoes are best known for their frequent basaltic eruptions, which typically start with fast-moving channelized `a`a flows fed by high eruptions rates. If the flows continue, they generally transition into pahoehoe flows, fed by lower eruption rates, after a few days to weeks. Kilauea Volcano's ongoing eruption illustrates this--since 1986, effusion at Kilauea has mostly produced pahoehoe. The current state of lava flow simulation is quite advanced, but the simplicity of the models mean that they are most appropriately used during the first, most vigorous, days to weeks of an eruption - during the effusion of `a`a flows. Colleagues at INGV in Catania have shown decisively that MAGFLOW simulations utilizing satellite-derived eruption rates can be effective at estimating hazards during the initial periods of an eruption crisis. However, the algorithms do not simulate the complexity of pahoehoe flows. Forecasts of lava flow hazards are the most common form of volcanic hazard assessments made in Hawai`i. Communications with emergency managers over the last decade have relied on simple steepest-descent line maps, coupled with empirical lava flow advance rate information, to portray the imminence of lava flow hazard to nearby communities. Lavasheds, calculated as watersheds, are used as a broader context for the future flow paths and to advise on the utility of diversion efforts, should they be contemplated. The key is to communicate the uncertainty of any approach used to formulate a forecast and, if the forecast uses simple tools, these communications can be fairly straightforward. The calculation of steepest-descent paths and lavasheds relies on the accuracy of the digital elevation model (DEM) used, so the choice of DEM is critical. In Hawai`i, the best choice is not the most recent but is a 1980s-vintage 10-m DEM--more recent LIDAR and satellite radar DEM are referenced to the ellipsoid and include vegetation effects. On low-slope terrain, steepest descent lines calculated on a geoid-based DEM may differ significantly from those calculated on an ellipsoid-based DEM. Good estimates of lava flow advance rates can be obtained from empirical compilations of historical advance rates of Hawaiian lava flows. In this way, rates appropriate for observed flow types (`a`a or pahoehoe, channelized or not) can be applied. Eruption rate is arguably the most important factor, while slope is also significant for low eruption rates. Eruption rate, however, remains the most difficult parameter to estimate during an active eruption. The simplicity of the HVO approach is its major benefit. How much better can lava-flow advance be forecast for all types of lava flows? Will the improvements outweigh the increased uncertainty propagated through the simulation calculations? HVO continues to improve and evaluate its lava flow forecasting tools to provide better hazard assessments to emergency personnel.

Microfilament-Eruption Mechanism for Solar Spicules

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sterling, Alphonse C.; Moore, Ronald L.

2017-01-01

Recent studies indicate that solar coronal jets result from eruption of small-scale filaments, or "minifilaments" (Sterling et al. 2015, Nature, 523, 437; Panesar et al. ApJL, 832L, 7). In many aspects, these coronal jets appear to be small-scale versions of long-recognized large-scale solar eruptions that are often accompanied by eruption of a large-scale filament and that produce solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs). In coronal jets, a jet-base bright point (JBP) that is often observed to accompany the jet and that sits on the magnetic neutral line from which the minifilament erupts, corresponds to the solar flare of larger-scale eruptions that occurs at the neutral line from which the large-scale filament erupts. Large-scale eruptions are relatively uncommon (approximately 1 per day) and occur with relatively large-scale erupting filaments (approximately 10 (sup 5) kilometers long). Coronal jets are more common (approximately 100s per day), but occur from erupting minifilaments of smaller size (approximately 10 (sup 4) kilometers long). It is known that solar spicules are much more frequent (many millions per day) than coronal jets. Just as coronal jets are small-scale versions of large-scale eruptions, here we suggest that solar spicules might in turn be small-scale versions of coronal jets; we postulate that the spicules are produced by eruptions of "microfilaments" of length comparable to the width of observed spicules (approximately 300 kilometers). A plot of the estimated number of the three respective phenomena (flares/CMEs, coronal jets, and spicules) occurring on the Sun at a given time, against the average sizes of erupting filaments, minifilaments, and the putative microfilaments, results in a size distribution that can be fitted with a power-law within the estimated uncertainties. The counterparts of the flares of large-scale eruptions and the JBPs of jets might be weak, pervasive, transient brightenings observed in Hinode/CaII images, and the production of spicules by microfilament eruptions might explain why spicules spin, as do coronal jets. The expected small-scale neutral lines from which the microfilaments would be expected to erupt would be difficult to detect reliably with current instrumentation, but might be apparent with instrumentation of the near future. A full report on this work appears in Sterling and Moore 2016, ApJL, 829, L9.

Io - Volcanic Eruption

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1979-01-01

This photo of a volcanic eruption on Jupiter's satellite Io (dark fountain-like feature near the limb) was taken March 4, 1979, about 12 hours before Voyager 1's closest approach to Jupiter. This and the accompanying photo present the evidence for the first active volcanic eruption ever observed on another body in the solar system. This photo taken from a distance of 310,000 miles (499,000 kilometers), shows a plume-like structure rising more than 60 miles (100 kilometers) above the surface, a cloud of material being produced by an active eruption. At least four eruptions have been identified on Voyager 1 pictures and many more may yet be discovered on closer analysis. On a nearly airless body like Io, particulate material thrown out of a volcano follows a ballistic trajectory, accounting for the dome-like shape of the top of the cloud, formed as particles reach the top of their flight path and begin to fall back. Spherical expansion of outflowing gas forms an even larger cloud surrounding the dust. Several regions have been identified by the infrared instrument on Voyager 1 as being several hundred degrees Fahrenheit warmer than surrounding terrain, and correlated with the eruptions. The fact that several eruptions appear to be going on simultaneously makes Io the most active surface in the solar system and suggests to scientists that Io is undergoing continuous volcanism, revising downward the age of Io's surface once again. JPL manages and controls the Voyager Project for NASA's Office of Space Science.

Analysis of the Spatio-Temporal Evolution of the Rockfalls in the Crater of Piton de la Fournaise Volcano, La Réunion, and their Link with the Eruptive Activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Durand, V.; Mangeney, A.; Hibert, C.; Haas, F.; Peltier, A.; Kowalski, P.; Lauret, F.; Brunet, C.; Delorme, A.; Wegner, K.; Satriano, C.; Bonilla, L. F.; Aissaoui, E. M.; Protin, A.

2017-12-01

The seismic and photogrammetric networks of the Piton de la Fournaise volcano (La Réunion Island) are very well appropriate to study seismic signals generated by rockfalls in the Dolomieu crater. In particular, seismic data make it possible to precisely locate the rockfalls and recover the volume of each rockfall. Rockfall locations and volumes are validated comparing them to the ones obtained using photogrammetric data. We thus obtain an accurate catalog of 5802 rockfalls over the 2014-2016 period. This period is especially active, with 7 eruptions, after a break of 4 years. The analysis of the catalog reveals that the recovery of the eruptive activity unsettles the crater edges, increasing the average volume of the rockfalls. It also highlights that rain and seismicity could increase the volume of individual rockfalls. However, it seems that the pre-eruptive seismicity is the main triggering factor for larger volumes, with a delay of several days. We infer that the repetitive vibrations due to the high number of seismic events induce a cyclic fatigue of the material, leading to the collapse of large volumes. To better understand and discriminate the influence of seismicity and rainfall on the rockfall volumes, we investigate in the same way the transition period, from 2010 to 2014, during which there is no eruption. Finally, we show that before an eruption, the largest rockfalls tend to migrate towards the location of the eruption.

Seismicity and eruptive activity at Fuego Volcano, Guatemala: February 1975 -January 1977

USGS Publications Warehouse

Yuan, A.T.E.; McNutt, S.R.; Harlow, D.H.

1984-01-01

We examine seismic and eruptive activity at Fuego Volcano (14??29???N, 90?? 53???W), a 3800-m-high stratovolcano located in the active volcanic arc of Guatemala. Eruptions at Fuego are typically short-lived vulcanian eruptions producing ash falls and ash flows of high-alumina basalt. From February 1975 to December 1976, five weak ash eruptions occurred, accompanied by small earthquake swarms. Between 0 and 140 (average ??? 10) A-type or high-frequency seismic events per day with M > 0.5 were recorded during this period. Estimated thermal energies for each eruption are greater by a factor of 106 than cumulative seismic energies, a larger ratio than that reported for other volcanoes. Over 4000 A-type events were recorded January 3-7, 1977 (cumulative seismic energy ??? 109 joules), yet no eruption occurred. Five 2-hour-long pulses of intense seismicity separated by 6-hour intervals of quiescence accounted for the majority of events. Maximum likelihood estimates of b-values range from 0.7 ?? 0.2 to 2.1 ?? 0.4 with systematically lower values corresponding to the five intense pulses. The low values suggest higher stress conditions. During the 1977 swarm, a tiltmeter located 6 km southeast of Fuego recorded a 14 ?? 3 microradian tilt event (down to SW). This value is too large to represent a simple change in the elastic strain field due to the earthquake swarm. We speculate that the earthquake swarm and tilt are indicative of subsurface magma movement. ?? 1984.

Flux Cancelation as the Trigger of Quiet-Region Coronal Jet Eruptions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Panesar, Navdeep K.; Sterling, Alphonse; Moore, Ronald L.

2017-01-01

Coronal jets are frequent magnetically channeled narrow eruptions. They occur in various solar environments: quiet regions, coronal holes and active regions. All coronal jets observed in EUV (Extreme UltraViolet) and X-ray images show a bright spire with a base brightening, also known as jet bright point (JBP). Recent studies show that coronal jets are driven by small-scale filament eruptions. Sterling et al. 2015 did extensive study of 20 polar coronal hole jets and found that X-ray jets are mainly driven by the eruption of minifilaments. What leads to these minifilament eruptions?

The 2009 and 2010 eruptions and shallow intrusions at Piton de la Fournaise, La Réunion Island, seen by cGPS measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Staudacher, Thomas; Peltier, Aline; Boissier, Patrice; di Muro, Andrea

2010-05-01

The Piton de la Fournaise volcano at La Réunion Island in the western Indian Ocean is one of the most active volcanoes in the world. Its average eruption rate over the last 2 centuries is one eruption every 9 months. Between 1998 and 2010 thirty eruptions occurred and produced some 300×106 m3 of lava flows. Since the 2007 collapse of 340 m of the Dolomieu caldera, the eruptive activity of the volcano changed with mainly the occurrence of numerous shallow intrusions preceding days or weeks small summit eruptions. In 2009-2010, Piton de la Fournaise erupted successively in November 5, December 14, 2009 and in January 2, 2010. The one day lasting November and December 2009 eruptions started from en echelon fissures close to the summit around its eastern and southern rims, respectively, whereas the January 2010 eruptive fissure opened on the western flank inside of the Dolomieu crater. These three eruptions produced less than 106 m3 of lava, but generated large ground deformation, of up to 70 cm, recorded by the cGPS network of the volcano observatory and by cinematic GPS measurements. The long term survey showed a small extent of the ground deformation field and the small ratios of base/summit displacements and vertical/horizontal displacements reveal the involvement of shallow dykes to fed these successive eruptions. The cGPS network allowed us to follow up precisely the pre eruptive ground deformations, the 40 to 90 minutes dyke propagation toward the surface, as well as the ground deformations after the vent opening. For the November and December 2009 eruptions, the dyke started below the western part of the Dolomieu crater, before propagating to the east and the south, respectively. For the January eruption, the dyke propagated along a more or less vertical pathway directly to the western part of the Dolomieu crater. The two previous dyke injections of November and December had increased the horizontal compressive stress of the eastern side of the Dolomieu crater and did not favoured a new propagation to the east.

Eruption and degassing dynamics of the major August 2015 Piton de la Fournaise eruption

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Di Muro, Andrea; Arellano, Santiago; Aiuppa, Alessandro; Bachelery, Patrick; Boudoire, Guillaume; Coppola, Diego; Ferrazzini, Valerie; Galle, Bo; Giudice, Gaetano; Gurioli, Lucia; Harris, Andy; Liuzzo, Marco; Metrich, Nicole; Moune, Severine; Peltier, Aline; Villeneuve, Nicolas; Vlastelic, Ivan

2016-04-01

Piton de la Fournaise (PdF) shield volcano is one of the most active basaltic volcanoes in the World with one eruption every nine months, on average. This frequent volcanic activity is broadly bimodal, with frequent small volume, short lived eruptions (< 30 Mm3, most being < 10 Mm3) and less frequent relatively large (50-210 Mm3) and long lasting (months) eruptions. After the major caldera forming event of 2007, the volcano produced several short lived small volume summit to proximal eruptions of relatively evolved cotectic magmas and relatively long repose periods (up to 3.5 years between 2010 and 2014). The August 2015 eruption was the first large (45±15 Mm3) and long lasting (2 months) eruption since 2007 and the only event to be fully monitored by the new gas geochemical network of Piton de la Fournaise volcanological observatory (DOAS, MultiGaS, diffuse CO2 soil emissions). Regular lava and tephra sampling was also performed for geochemical and petrological analysis. The eruption was preceded by a significant increase in CO2 soil emissions at distal soil stations (ca. 15 km from the summit), with CO2 enrichment also being recorded at summit low temperature fumaroles. Eruptive products were spectacularly zoned, with plagioclase and pyroxene being abundant in the early erupted products and olivine being the main phase in the late-erupted lavas. Total gas emissions at the eruptive vent underwent a decrease during the first half of the eruption and then an increase, mirroring the time evolution of magma discharge rate (from 5-10 m3/s in September to 15-30 m3/s in late-October) and the progressive change in magma composition. In spite of significant evolution in magma and gas output, CO2/SO2 ratios in high temperature gases remained quite low (< 0.3) and with little temporal change. Geochemical data indicated that this relatively long-lived eruption corresponded to the progressive drainage of most of the shallow part of PdF plumbing system, triggered by a new pulse of deep magma. While erupted magma and high temperature gases were mostly provided by the shallow part of the system, distal sites and summit low temperature fumaroles recorded a deeper triggering mechanism.

H-alpha Proxies for EIT Crinkles: Further Evidence for Pre-Flare "Breakout"-Type Activity in an Ejective Solar Eruption

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sterling, Alphonse C.; Moore, R. L.; Qiu, J.; Wang, H.; Whitaker, Ann F. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

We present Halpha observations from Big Bear Solar Observatory of an eruptive flare in NOAA AR 8210, occurring near 22:30 UT on 1998 May 1. Previously, using the EUV Imaging Telescope (EIT) on the SOHO spacecraft, we found that a pattern of transient, localized brightenings, which we call "EIT crinkles," appears in the neighborhood of the eruption near the time of flare onset. These EIT crinkles occur at a location in the active region well separated from the sheared core magnetic fields, which is where the most intense features of the eruption are concentrated. We also previously found that high-cadence images from the Soft X-ray Telescope (SXT) on Yohkoh indicate that soft X-ray intensity enhancements in the core begin after the start of the EIT crinkles. With the Halpha data, we find remote flare brightening counterparts to the EIT crinkles. Lightcurves as functions of time of various areas of the active region show that several of the remote flare brightenings undergo intensity increases prior to onset of principle brightenings in the core region, consistent with our earlier findings from EIT and SXT data. These timing relationships are consistent with the eruption onset mechanism known as the breakout model, introduced by Antiochos and colleagues, which proposes that eruptions begin with reconnection at a magnetic null high above the core region. Our observations are also consistent with other proposed mechanisms which do not involve early reconnection in the core region. As a corollary, our observations are not consistent with the so-called tether cutting models, which say that the eruption begins with reconnection in the core. The Halpha data further show that a filament in the core region becomes activated near the time of EIT crinkle onset, but little if any of the filament actually erupts, despite the presence of a halo Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) associated with this event.

The preliminary results: Internal seismic velocity structure imaging beneath Mount Lokon

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Firmansyah, Rizky, E-mail: rizkyfirmansyah@hotmail.com; Nugraha, Andri Dian, E-mail: nugraha@gf.itb.ac.id; Kristianto, E-mail: kris@vsi.esdm.go.id

2015-04-24

Historical records that before the 17{sup th} century, Mount Lokon had been dormant for approximately 400 years. In the years between 1350 and 1400, eruption ever recorded in Empung, came from Mount Lokon’s central crater. Subsequently, in 1750 to 1800, Mount Lokon continued to erupt again and caused soil damage and fall victim. After 1949, Mount Lokon dramatically increased in its frequency: the eruption interval varies between 1 – 5 years, with an average interval of 3 years and a rest interval ranged from 8 – 64 years. Then, on June 26{sup th}, 2011, standby alert set by the Centermore » for Volcanology and Geological Hazard Mitigation. Peak activity happened on July 4{sup th}, 2011 that Mount Lokon erupted continuously until August 28{sup th}, 2011. In this study, we carefully analyzed micro-earthquakes waveform and determined hypocenter location of those events. We then conducted travel time seismic tomographic inversion using SIMULPS12 method to detemine Vp, Vs and Vp/Vs ratio structures beneath Lokon volcano in order to enhance our subsurface geological structure. During the tomographic inversion, we started from 1-D seismic velocities model obtained from VELEST33 method. Our preliminary results show low Vp, low Vs, and high Vp/Vs are observed beneath Mount Lokon-Empung which are may be associated with weak zone or hot material zones. However, in this study we used few station for recording of micro-earthquake events. So, we suggest in the future tomography study, the adding of some seismometers in order to improve ray coverage in the region is profoundly justified.« less

Probabilistic-numerical assessment of pyroclastic current hazard at Campi Flegrei and Naples city: Multi-VEI scenarios as a tool for "full-scale" risk management.

PubMed

Mastrolorenzo, Giuseppe; Palladino, Danilo M; Pappalardo, Lucia; Rossano, Sergio

2017-01-01

The Campi Flegrei volcanic field (Italy) poses very high risk to the highly urbanized Neapolitan area. Eruptive history was dominated by explosive activity producing pyroclastic currents (hereon PCs; acronym for Pyroclastic Currents) ranging in scale from localized base surges to regional flows. Here we apply probabilistic numerical simulation approaches to produce PC hazard maps, based on a comprehensive spectrum of flow properties and vent locations. These maps are incorporated in a Geographic Information System (GIS) and provide all probable Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) scenarios from different source vents in the caldera, relevant for risk management planning. For each VEI scenario, we report the conditional probability for PCs (i.e., the probability for a given area to be affected by the passage of PCs in case of a PC-forming explosive event) and related dynamic pressure. Model results indicate that PCs from VEI<4 events would be confined within the Campi Flegrei caldera, PC propagation being impeded by the northern and eastern caldera walls. Conversely, PCs from VEI 4-5 events could invade a wide area beyond the northern caldera rim, as well as part of the Naples metropolitan area to the east. A major controlling factor of PC dispersal is represented by the location of the vent area. PCs from the potentially largest eruption scenarios (analogous to the ~15 ka, VEI 6 Neapolitan Yellow Tuff or even the ~39 ka, VEI 7 Campanian Ignimbrite extreme event) would affect a large part of the Campanian Plain to the north and the city of Naples to the east. Thus, in case of renewal of eruptive activity at Campi Flegrei, up to 3 million people will be potentially exposed to volcanic hazard, pointing out the urgency of an emergency plan. Considering the present level of uncertainty in forecasting the future eruption type, size and location (essentially based on statistical analysis of previous activity), we suggest that appropriate planning measures should face at least the VEI 5 reference scenario (at least 2 occurrences documented in the last 10 ka).

Probabilistic-numerical assessment of pyroclastic current hazard at Campi Flegrei and Naples city: Multi-VEI scenarios as a tool for “full-scale” risk management

PubMed Central

Mastrolorenzo, Giuseppe; Palladino, Danilo M.; Pappalardo, Lucia; Rossano, Sergio

2017-01-01

The Campi Flegrei volcanic field (Italy) poses very high risk to the highly urbanized Neapolitan area. Eruptive history was dominated by explosive activity producing pyroclastic currents (hereon PCs; acronym for Pyroclastic Currents) ranging in scale from localized base surges to regional flows. Here we apply probabilistic numerical simulation approaches to produce PC hazard maps, based on a comprehensive spectrum of flow properties and vent locations. These maps are incorporated in a Geographic Information System (GIS) and provide all probable Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) scenarios from different source vents in the caldera, relevant for risk management planning. For each VEI scenario, we report the conditional probability for PCs (i.e., the probability for a given area to be affected by the passage of PCs in case of a PC-forming explosive event) and related dynamic pressure. Model results indicate that PCs from VEI<4 events would be confined within the Campi Flegrei caldera, PC propagation being impeded by the northern and eastern caldera walls. Conversely, PCs from VEI 4–5 events could invade a wide area beyond the northern caldera rim, as well as part of the Naples metropolitan area to the east. A major controlling factor of PC dispersal is represented by the location of the vent area. PCs from the potentially largest eruption scenarios (analogous to the ~15 ka, VEI 6 Neapolitan Yellow Tuff or even the ~39 ka, VEI 7 Campanian Ignimbrite extreme event) would affect a large part of the Campanian Plain to the north and the city of Naples to the east. Thus, in case of renewal of eruptive activity at Campi Flegrei, up to 3 million people will be potentially exposed to volcanic hazard, pointing out the urgency of an emergency plan. Considering the present level of uncertainty in forecasting the future eruption type, size and location (essentially based on statistical analysis of previous activity), we suggest that appropriate planning measures should face at least the VEI 5 reference scenario (at least 2 occurrences documented in the last 10 ka). PMID:29020018