Prospective memory impairments in heavy social drinkers are partially overcome by future event simulation.

PubMed

Platt, Bradley; Kamboj, Sunjeev K; Italiano, Tommaso; Rendell, Peter G; Curran, H Valerie

2016-02-01

Recent research suggests that alcohol acutely impairs prospective memory (PM), and this impairment can be overcome using a strategy called 'future event simulation' (FES). Impairment in event-based PM found in detoxifying alcohol-dependent participants is reversed through FES. However, the impact of the most common problematic drinking patterns that do not involve alcohol dependence on PM remains unclear. Here, we examine the impact of frequent heavy drinking on PM and the degree to which any impairments can be reversed through FES. PM was assessed in 19 heavy drinkers (AUDIT scores ≥ 15) and 18 matched control participants (AUDIT scores ≤ 7) using the 'Virtual Week' task both at baseline and again following FES. Heavy drinkers performed significantly worse than controls on regular and irregular time-based PM tasks. FES improved the performance of controls but not of heavy drinkers on time-based tasks. In contrast, FES improved heavy drinkers' performance on event-based PM tasks. These findings suggest that heavy drinkers experience deficits in strategic monitoring processing associated with time-based PM tasks which do not abate after FES. That the same strategy improves their event-based PM suggests that FES may be helpful for individuals with problematic drinking patterns in improving their prospective memory.

Projections of hepatitis A virus infection associated with flood events by 2020 and 2030 in Anhui Province, China.

PubMed

Gao, Lu; Zhang, Ying; Ding, Guoyong; Liu, Qiyong; Wang, Changke; Jiang, Baofa

2016-12-01

Assessing and responding to health risk of climate change is important because of its impact on the natural and societal ecosystems. More frequent and severe flood events will occur in China due to climate change. Given that population is projected to increase, more people will be vulnerable to flood events, which may lead to an increased incidence of HAV infection in the future. This population-based study is going to project the future health burden of HAV infection associated with flood events in Huai River Basin of China. The study area covered four cities of Anhui province in China, where flood events were frequent. Time-series adjusted Poisson regression model was developed to quantify the risks of flood events on HAV infection based on the number of daily cases during summer seasons from 2005 to 2010, controlling for other meteorological variables. Projections of HAV infection in 2020 and 2030 were estimated based on the scenarios of flood events and demographic data. Poisson regression model suggested that compared with the periods without flood events, the risks of severe flood events for HAV infection were significant (OR = 1.28, 95 % CI 1.05-1.55), while risks were not significant from moderate flood events (OR = 1.16, 95 % CI 0.72-1.87) and mild flood events (OR = 1.14, 95 % CI 0.87-1.48). Using the 2010 baseline data and the flood event scenarios (one severe flood event), increased incidence of HAV infection were estimated to be between 0.126/10 5 and 0.127/10 5 for 2020. Similarly, the increased HAV infection incidence for 2030 was projected to be between 0.382/10 5 and 0.399/10 5 . Our study has, for the first time, quantified the increased incidence of HAV infection that will result from flood events in Anhui, China, in 2020 and 2030. The results have implications for public health preparation for developing public health responses to reduce HAV infection during future flood events.

Event-driven simulation in SELMON: An overview of EDSE

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rouquette, Nicolas F.; Chien, Steve A.; Charest, Leonard, Jr.

1992-01-01

EDSE (event-driven simulation engine), a model-based event-driven simulator implemented for SELMON, a tool for sensor selection and anomaly detection in real-time monitoring is described. The simulator is used in conjunction with a causal model to predict future behavior of the model from observed data. The behavior of the causal model is interpreted as equivalent to the behavior of the physical system being modeled. An overview of the functionality of the simulator and the model-based event-driven simulation paradigm on which it is based is provided. Included are high-level descriptions of the following key properties: event consumption and event creation, iterative simulation, synchronization and filtering of monitoring data from the physical system. Finally, how EDSE stands with respect to the relevant open issues of discrete-event and model-based simulation is discussed.

"Heinrich events" (& sediments): A history of terminology and recommendations for future usage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andrews, John T.; Voelker, Antje H. L.

2018-05-01

We document the history of terms used to describe Heinrich (H-) layers and events and which mark major glaciological iceberg discharge events in the North Atlantic. We argue that the usage "Heinrich layer," "Heinrich zone", or "Heinrich event" should be restricted to only those sediments that can be ascribed to an origin from the Hudson Strait Ice Stream and the Laurentide Ice Sheet. We also argue that the commonplace understanding of these events--as dominated by massive iceberg discharges --fails to include the earlier well-documented evidence that these events were also massive meltwater events linked to deposition along the North Atlantic Mid-Ocean Channel (NAMOC) in the Labrador Sea. We make five recommendations for future usage of "Heinrich events," which include: restricting the usage to those events that can be mineralogically/geochemically linked to Hudson Strait; abandoning the term "Heinrich stadial"; and promote local terminology for "ice rafted events" that may be correlated, or not, with Hudson Strait Heinrich events based on calibrated radiocarbon dates or other appropriate chronological markers.

A Multinomial Model of Event-Based Prospective Memory

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Smith, Rebekah E.; Bayen, Ute J.

2004-01-01

Prospective memory is remembering to perform an action in the future. The authors introduce the 1st formal model of event-based prospective memory, namely, a multinomial model that includes 2 separate parameters related to prospective memory processes. The 1st measures preparatory attentional processes, and the 2nd measures retrospective memory…

An Overview of Recent Advances in Event-Triggered Consensus of Multiagent Systems.

PubMed

Ding, Lei; Han, Qing-Long; Ge, Xiaohua; Zhang, Xian-Ming

2018-04-01

Event-triggered consensus of multiagent systems (MASs) has attracted tremendous attention from both theoretical and practical perspectives due to the fact that it enables all agents eventually to reach an agreement upon a common quantity of interest while significantly alleviating utilization of communication and computation resources. This paper aims to provide an overview of recent advances in event-triggered consensus of MASs. First, a basic framework of multiagent event-triggered operational mechanisms is established. Second, representative results and methodologies reported in the literature are reviewed and some in-depth analysis is made on several event-triggered schemes, including event-based sampling schemes, model-based event-triggered schemes, sampled-data-based event-triggered schemes, and self-triggered sampling schemes. Third, two examples are outlined to show applicability of event-triggered consensus in power sharing of microgrids and formation control of multirobot systems, respectively. Finally, some challenging issues on event-triggered consensus are proposed for future research.

Multi-index evaluation of future drought and climate extreme occurrence in Goodwater Creek Experimental Watershed

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Understanding the frequency and occurrence of drought events in historic and projected future climate is essential for managing natural resources and setting policy. This study aims to identify future patterns of meteorological, hydrological and agricultural droughts based on projection from 12 GCM ...

Stress testing hydrologic models using bottom-up climate change assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stephens, C.; Johnson, F.; Marshall, L. A.

2017-12-01

Bottom-up climate change assessment is a promising approach for understanding the vulnerability of a system to potential future changes. The technique has been utilised successfully in risk-based assessments of future flood severity and infrastructure vulnerability. We find that it is also an ideal tool for assessing hydrologic model performance in a changing climate. In this study, we applied bottom-up climate change to compare the performance of two different hydrologic models (an event-based and a continuous model) under increasingly severe climate change scenarios. This allowed us to diagnose likely sources of future prediction error in the two models. The climate change scenarios were based on projections for southern Australia, which indicate drier average conditions with increased extreme rainfall intensities. We found that the key weakness in using the event-based model to simulate drier future scenarios was the model's inability to dynamically account for changing antecedent conditions. This led to increased variability in model performance relative to the continuous model, which automatically accounts for the wetness of a catchment through dynamic simulation of water storages. When considering more intense future rainfall events, representation of antecedent conditions became less important than assumptions around (non)linearity in catchment response. The linear continuous model we applied may underestimate flood risk in a future climate with greater extreme rainfall intensity. In contrast with the recommendations of previous studies, this indicates that continuous simulation is not necessarily the key to robust flood modelling under climate change. By applying bottom-up climate change assessment, we were able to understand systematic changes in relative model performance under changing conditions and deduce likely sources of prediction error in the two models.

Imagining the Future in Children with Severe Traumatic Brain Injury.

PubMed

Lah, Suncica; Gott, Chloe; Epps, Adrienne; Parry, Louise

2018-06-12

Imagining future events is thought to rely on recombination and integration of past episodic memory traces into future events. Future and past events contain episodic and nonepisodic details. Children with severe traumatic brain injury (TBI) were found to have impaired recall of past episodic (but not semantic) event details. Here, we examined whether severe TBI impairs construction of future events. Children with severe TBI (n = 15) and healthy controls (NC; n = 33) 1) completed tests of anterograde (narrative and relational) memory and executive skills, 2) recalled past events and generated future events, and 3) rated events' phenomenological qualities. Events were scored for episodic (internal) and semantic (external) details. The groups did not differ in generating details of future events, although children with TBI recalled significantly fewer past internal (but not external) events' details relative to NCs. Moreover, the number of past internal details relative to future internal details was significantly higher in the NC group, but not in the TBI groups. Significant correlations between past and future were found for 1) internal details in both groups and 2) external details in the NC group. The TBI group rated their events as being less significant than did the NC group. The groups did not differ on ratings of visual intensity and rehearsal. Our study has shown that children who have sustained severe TBI had impoverished recall of past, but not generation of future, events. This unexpected dissociation between past and future event construction requires further research.

Time-based and event-based prospective memory in autism spectrum disorder: the roles of executive function and theory of mind, and time-estimation.

PubMed

Williams, David; Boucher, Jill; Lind, Sophie; Jarrold, Christopher

2013-07-01

Prospective memory (remembering to carry out an action in the future) has been studied relatively little in ASD. We explored time-based (carry out an action at a pre-specified time) and event-based (carry out an action upon the occurrence of a pre-specified event) prospective memory, as well as possible cognitive correlates, among 21 intellectually high-functioning children with ASD, and 21 age- and IQ-matched neurotypical comparison children. We found impaired time-based, but undiminished event-based, prospective memory among children with ASD. In the ASD group, time-based prospective memory performance was associated significantly with diminished theory of mind, but not with diminished cognitive flexibility. There was no evidence that time-estimation ability contributed to time-based prospective memory impairment in ASD.

What differentiates episodic future thinking from complex scene imagery?

PubMed

de Vito, Stefania; Gamboz, Nadia; Brandimonte, Maria A

2012-06-01

We investigated the contributions of familiarity of setting, self-relevance and self-projection in time to episodic future thinking. The role of familiarity of setting was assessed, in Experiment 1, by comparing episodic future thoughts to autobiographical future events supposed to occur in unfamiliar settings. The role of self-relevance was assessed, in Experiment 2, by comparing episodic future thoughts to future events involving familiar others. The role of self-projection in time was assessed, in both Experiments, by comparing episodic future thoughts to autobiographical events that were not temporal in nature. Results indicated that episodic future thoughts were more clearly represented than autobiographical future events occurring in unfamiliar setting and future events involving familiar others. Our results also revealed that episodic future thoughts were indistinguishable from autobiographical atemporal events with respect to both subjective and objective detail ratings. These results suggest that future and atemporal events are mentally represented in a similar way. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Characteristics and Future Changes of Great Mississippi Flood Events in a Global Coupled Climate Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van der Wiel, K.; Kapnick, S. B.; Vecchi, G.; Smith, J. A.

2017-12-01

The Mississippi-Missouri river catchment houses millions of people and much of the U.S. national agricultural production. Severe flooding events can therefore have large negative societal, natural and economic impacts. GFDL FLOR, a global coupled climate model (atmosphere, ocean, land, sea ice with integrated river routing module) is used to investigate the characteristics of great Mississippi floods with an average return period of 100 years. Model experiments under pre-industrial greenhouse gas forcing were conducted for 3400 years, such that the most extreme flooding events were explicitly modeled and the land and/or atmospheric causes could be investigated. It is shown that melt of snow pack and frozen sub-surface water in the Missouri and Upper Mississippi basins prime the river system, subsequently sensitizing it to above average precipitation in the Ohio and Tennessee basins. The months preceding the greatest flooding events are above average wet, leading to moist sub-surface conditions. Anomalous melt depends on the availability of frozen water in the catchment, therefore anomalous amounts of sub-surface frozen water and anomalous large snow pack in winter (Nov-Feb) make the river system susceptible for these great flooding events in spring (Feb-Apr). An additional experiment of 1200 years under transient greenhouse gas forcing (RCP4.5, 5 members) was done to investigate potential future change in flood risk. Based on a peak-over-threshold method, it is found that the number of great flooding events decreases in a warmer future. This decrease coincides with decreasing occurrence of large melt events, but is despite increasing numbers of large precipitation events. Though the model results indicate a decreasing risk for the greatest flooding events, the predictability of events might decrease in a warmer future given the changing characters of melt and precipitation.

Assessment of 21st century drought conditions at Shasta Dam based on dynamically projected water supply conditions by a regional climate model coupled with a physically-based hydrology model.

PubMed

Trinh, T; Ishida, K; Kavvas, M L; Ercan, A; Carr, K

2017-05-15

Along with socioeconomic developments, and population increase, natural disasters around the world have recently increased the awareness of harmful impacts they cause. Among natural disasters, drought is of great interest to scientists due to the extraordinary diversity of their severity and duration. Motivated by the development of a potential approach to investigate future possible droughts in a probabilistic framework based on climate change projections, a methodology to consider thirteen future climate projections based on four emission scenarios to characterize droughts is presented. The proposed approach uses a regional climate model coupled with a physically-based hydrology model (Watershed Environmental Hydrology Hydro-Climate Model; WEHY-HCM) to generate thirteen equally likely future water supply projections. The water supply projections were compared to the current water demand for the detection of drought events and estimation of drought properties. The procedure was applied to Shasta Dam watershed to analyze drought conditions at the watershed outlet, Shasta Dam. The results suggest an increasing water scarcity at Shasta Dam with more severe and longer future drought events in some future scenarios. An important advantage of the proposed approach to the probabilistic analysis of future droughts is that it provides the drought properties of the 100-year and 200-year return periods without resorting to any extrapolation of the frequency curve. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Schema Driven Construction of Future Autobiographical Traumatic Events: The Future is Much More Troubling than the Past

PubMed Central

Rubin, David C.

2013-01-01

Research on future episodic thought has produced compelling theories and results in cognitive psychology, cognitive neuroscience, and clinical psychology. To integrate these using basic concepts and methods from autobiographical memory research, 76 undergraduates remembered past and imagined future positive and negative events that had or would have a major impact on them. Correlations of the online ratings of visual and auditory imagery, emotion, and other measures demonstrated that individuals used the same processes to the same extent to remember past and construct future events. These measures predicted the theoretically important metacognitive judgment of past reliving and future ‘preliving’ in similar ways. Future negative events had much higher scores than past negative events on standardized tests of reactions to traumatic events, scores in the range that would qualify for a diagnosis of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), which was replicated (n = 52) to check for order effects. Consistent with earlier work, future events had less sensory vividness. Thus, the imagined symptoms of future events were unlikely to be caused by sensory vividness. To confirm this, 63 undergraduates produced numerous added details between two constructions of the same negative future events, removing deficits in rated vividness with no increase in the standardized tests of reactions to traumatic events. Neuroticism predicted individuals’ reactions to negative past events but did not predict imagined reactions to future events. This set of novel methods and findings are interpreted in the contexts of the literatures of episodic future thought, autobiographical memory, PTSD, and classic schema theory. PMID:23607632

The surprising power of neighborly advice.

PubMed

Gilbert, Daniel T; Killingsworth, Matthew A; Eyre, Rebecca N; Wilson, Timothy D

2009-03-20

Two experiments revealed that (i) people can more accurately predict their affective reactions to a future event when they know how a neighbor in their social network reacted to the event than when they know about the event itself and (ii) people do not believe this. Undergraduates made more accurate predictions about their affective reactions to a 5-minute speed date (n = 25) and to a peer evaluation (n = 88) when they knew only how another undergraduate had reacted to these events than when they had information about the events themselves. Both participants and independent judges mistakenly believed that predictions based on information about the event would be more accurate than predictions based on information about how another person had reacted to it.

When remembering the past suppresses memory for future actions.

PubMed

Utsumi, Kenta; Saito, Satoru

2016-01-01

Remembering planned actions at the correct time in the future is an integral component of prospective cognition. Recent studies on future remembering have led to suggestions that prospective cognition might be based on past experience. To test this hypothesis, we focused on retrieval-induced forgetting (RIF), which usually indicates that remembering past events suppresses memory for related but different past events. The current study assessed RIF in two kinds of event-based prospective memory (PM) tasks using either focal or non-focal cues for ongoing tasks. Participants studied six members from each of eight taxonomic categories and then practiced recalling three of the six members from four of the eight categories using category-stem cues. This retrieval practice suppressed the detection of non-practiced members of the practiced categories during the PM task with non-focal cues (Experiment 1) but not with focal cues (Experiment 2). The results suggest that recall of certain items inhibits the function of the others as PM cues, but only if the PM task does not largely share its processing with the ongoing task.

Mental time travel and the shaping of the human mind

PubMed Central

Suddendorf, Thomas; Addis, Donna Rose; Corballis, Michael C.

2009-01-01

Episodic memory, enabling conscious recollection of past episodes, can be distinguished from semantic memory, which stores enduring facts about the world. Episodic memory shares a core neural network with the simulation of future episodes, enabling mental time travel into both the past and the future. The notion that there might be something distinctly human about mental time travel has provoked ingenious attempts to demonstrate episodic memory or future simulation in non-human animals, but we argue that they have not yet established a capacity comparable to the human faculty. The evolution of the capacity to simulate possible future events, based on episodic memory, enhanced fitness by enabling action in preparation of different possible scenarios that increased present or future survival and reproduction chances. Human language may have evolved in the first instance for the sharing of past and planned future events, and, indeed, fictional ones, further enhancing fitness in social settings. PMID:19528013

VVV Survey Microlensing Events in the Galactic Center Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Navarro, María Gabriela; Minniti, Dante; Contreras Ramos, Rodrigo

2017-12-01

We search for microlensing events in the highly reddened areas surrounding the Galactic center using the near-IR observations with the VISTA Variables in the Vía Láctea Survey (VVV). We report the discovery of 182 new microlensing events, based on observations acquired between 2010 and 2015. We present the color-magnitude diagrams of the microlensing sources for the VVV tiles b332, b333, and b334, which were independently analyzed, and show good qualitative agreement among themselves. We detect an excess of microlensing events in the central tile b333 in comparison with the other two tiles, suggesting that the microlensing optical depth keeps rising all the way to the Galactic center. We derive the Einstein radius crossing time for all of the observed events. The observed event timescales range from t E = 5 to 200 days. The resulting timescale distribution shows a mean timescale of < {t}{{E}}> =30.91 days for the complete sample (N = 182 events), and < {t}{{E}}> =29.93 days if restricted only for the red clump (RC) giant sources (N = 96 RC events). There are 20 long timescale events ({t}{{E}}≥slant 100 days) that suggest the presence of massive lenses (black holes) or disk-disk event. This work demonstrates that the VVV Survey is a powerful tool to detect intermediate/long timescale microlensing events in highly reddened areas, and it enables a number of future applications, from analyzing individual events to computing the statistics for the inner Galactic mass and kinematic distributions, in aid of future ground- and space-based experiments.

Early Childhood Education: A Projection for 2001.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

LeVasseur, Natalie P.

This paper projects an image of the future from the present to early in the next century and provides a scenario of a day spent in a school for young children in 2001. The image of the future is based on a chronicle of events which might conceivably happen. The scenario, set in one particular time and place in the future, describes what early…

Difference in Career Attitudes of Elementary Minority Female Students after Participation in a STEM Event

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pumphrey, Karyn Christine

Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM) professionals are responsible for the development of new technologies and breaking scientific discoveries. However, in the United States, racial minorities and females are vastly underrepresented in STEM professions. This problem is multiplied for individuals falling into both categories. Educators in must develop effective strategies to increase the number of minority females in STEM jobs. The purpose of this quantitative study was to investigate if there was a difference in attitudes about future STEM educational choices and career opportunities after participation in a theme-based STEM event. The significant points reflected in the literature are statistics that demonstrate the extreme underrepresentation of this population and the importance of having all segments of the population represented in these important jobs. A descriptive non-experimental design study utilizing survey data taken before and after a STEM day at a public school was employed. The analysis tool was the Hopes and Goals Survey which has been found valid and reliable with similar samples of students. The data sets were pre-event and post-event surveys from minority females in grades 3, 4, and 5. The two data sets were compared using descriptive statistics to investigate any differences in opinions before and after the event. The results showed a difference in minority female student's attitudes regarding future STEM educational opportunities and careers after participation in a theme-based STEM event. The results indicate a need for increasing the number of STEM events in public schools. Future research may explore the differences between the opinion changes of males versus females to ascertain which gender responded most positively to STEM day.

Space Internet-Embedded Web Technologies Demonstration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Foltz, David A.

2001-01-01

The NASA Glenn Research Center recently demonstrated the ability to securely command and control space-based assets by using the Internet and standard Internet Protocols (IP). This is a significant accomplishment because future NASA missions will benefit by using Internet standards-based protocols. The benefits include reduced mission costs and increased mission efficiency. The Internet-Based Space Command and Control System Architecture demonstrated at the NASA Inspection 2000 event proved that this communications architecture is viable for future NASA missions.

Wire-Cell Tomographic Event Reconstruction for large LArTPCs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qian, Xin; Viren, Brett; Zhang, Chao; Wire-Cell Team

2016-03-01

Event reconstruction is one of the most challenging tasks in analyzing the data from current and future large liquid argon time projection chambers (LArTPCs). The performance of the event reconstruction holds the key to many potential future discoveries with the LArTPC technology including i) searching for new CP violation in the leptonic sector, ii) determining the neutrino mass hierarchy, and iii) searching for additional light (sterile) neutrino species. In this talk, we introduce a new reconstruction method: Wire-Cell. The principle of Wire-Cell strictly follows the principle of LArTPC, that is, the same amount of ionization electrons are observed by all the wire-planes. Using both time and charge information, 3D image of the event topologies are firstly obtained. Further reconstruction steps including the clustering, tracking, and particle identifications (PID) are then directly applied to the 3D image. The principle, current status, and future development plan of Wire-Cell will be described. The results of Wire-Cell event reconstruction will be shown with an innovative web-based ``BEE'' 3D event display. This work is supported by U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science, Office of High Energy Physics and Early Career Research program under Contract Number DE-SC0012704.

A Synoptic Weather Typing Approach and Its application to Assess Climate Change Impacts on Extreme Weather Events at Local Scale in South-Central Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shouquan Cheng, Chad; Li, Qian; Li, Guilong

2010-05-01

The synoptic weather typing approach has become popular in evaluating the impacts of climate change on a variety of environmental problems. One of the reasons is its ability to categorize a complex set of meteorological variables as a coherent index, which can facilitate analyses of local climate change impacts. The weather typing method has been successfully applied in Environment Canada for several research projects to analyze climatic change impacts on a number of extreme weather events, such as freezing rain, heavy rainfall, high-/low-flow events, air pollution, and human health. These studies comprise of three major parts: (1) historical simulation modeling to verify the extreme weather events, (2) statistical downscaling to provide station-scale future hourly/daily climate data, and (3) projections of changes in frequency and intensity of future extreme weather events in this century. To achieve these goals, in addition to synoptic weather typing, the modeling conceptualizations in meteorology and hydrology and a number of linear/nonlinear regression techniques were applied. Furthermore, a formal model result verification process has been built into each of the three parts of the projects. The results of the verification, based on historical observations of the outcome variables predicted by the models, showed very good agreement. The modeled results from these projects found that the frequency and intensity of future extreme weather events are projected to significantly increase under a changing climate in this century. This talk will introduce these research projects and outline the modeling exercise and result verification process. The major findings on future projections from the studies will be summarized in the presentation as well. One of the major conclusions from the studies is that the procedures (including synoptic weather typing) used in the studies are useful for climate change impact analysis on future extreme weather events. The implication of the significant increases in frequency and intensity of future extreme weather events would be useful to be considered when revising engineering infrastructure design standards and developing adaptation strategies and policies.

Symbolic Processing Combined with Model-Based Reasoning

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

James, Mark

2009-01-01

A computer program for the detection of present and prediction of future discrete states of a complex, real-time engineering system utilizes a combination of symbolic processing and numerical model-based reasoning. One of the biggest weaknesses of a purely symbolic approach is that it enables prediction of only future discrete states while missing all unmodeled states or leading to incorrect identification of an unmodeled state as a modeled one. A purely numerical approach is based on a combination of statistical methods and mathematical models of the applicable physics and necessitates development of a complete model to the level of fidelity required for prediction. In addition, a purely numerical approach does not afford the ability to qualify its results without some form of symbolic processing. The present software implements numerical algorithms to detect unmodeled events and symbolic algorithms to predict expected behavior, correlate the expected behavior with the unmodeled events, and interpret the results in order to predict future discrete states. The approach embodied in this software differs from that of the BEAM methodology (aspects of which have been discussed in several prior NASA Tech Briefs articles), which provides for prediction of future measurements in the continuous-data domain.

Continental-Scale Estimates of Runoff Using Future Climate ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Recent runoff events have had serious repercussions to both natural ecosystems and human infrastructure. Understanding how shifts in storm event intensities are expected to change runoff responses are valuable for local, regional, and landscape planning. To address this challenge, relative changes in runoff using predicted future climate conditions were estimated over different biophysical areas for the CONterminous U.S. (CONUS). Runoff was estimated using the Curve Number (CN) developed by the USDA Soil Conservation Service (USDA, 1986). A seamless gridded dataset representing a CN for existing land use/land cover (LULC) across the CONUS was used along with two different storm event grids created specifically for this effort. The two storm event grids represent a 2- and a 100-year, 24-hour storm event under current climate conditions. The storm event grids were generated using a compilation of county-scale Texas USGS Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) data (provided by William Asquith, USGS, Lubbock, Texas), and NOAA Atlas-2 and NOAA Atlas-14 gridded data sets. Future CN runoff was predicted using extreme storm events grids created using a method based on Kao and Ganguly (2011) where precipitation extremes reflect changes in saturated water vapor pressure of the atmosphere in response to temperature changes. The Clausius-Clapeyron relationship establishes that the total water vapor mass of fully saturated air increases with increasing temperature, leading to

The organization of prospective thinking: evidence of event clusters in freely generated future thoughts.

PubMed

Demblon, Julie; D'Argembeau, Arnaud

2014-02-01

Recent research suggests that many imagined future events are not represented in isolation, but instead are embedded in broader event sequences-referred to as event clusters. It remains unclear, however, whether the production of event clusters reflects the underlying organizational structure of prospective thinking or whether it is an artifact of the event-cuing task in which participants are explicitly required to provide chains of associated future events. To address this issue, the present study examined whether the occurrence of event clusters in prospective thought is apparent when people are left to think freely about events that might happen in their personal future. The results showed that the succession of events participants spontaneously produced when envisioning their future frequently included event clusters. This finding provides more compelling evidence that prospective thinking involves higher-order autobiographical knowledge structures that organize imagined events in coherent themes and sequences. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Remembering the past and imagining the future: common and distinct neural substrates during event construction and elaboration

PubMed Central

Addis, Donna Rose; Wong, Alana T.; Schacter, Daniel L.

2007-01-01

People can consciously re-experience past events and pre-experience possible future events. This fMRI study examined the neural regions mediating the construction and elaboration of past and future events. Participants were cued with a noun for 20 seconds and instructed to construct a past or future event within a specified time period (week, year, 5–20 years). Once participants had the event in mind, they made a button press and for the remainder of the 20 seconds elaborated on the event. Importantly, all events generated were episodic and did not differ on a number of phenomenological qualities (detail, emotionality, personal significance, field/observer perspective). Conjunction analyses indicated the left hippocampus was commonly engaged by past and future event construction, along with posterior visuospatial regions, but considerable neural differentiation was also observed during the construction phase. Future events recruited regions involved in prospective thinking and generation processes, specifically right frontopolar cortex and left ventrolateral prefrontal cortex, respectively. Furthermore, future event construction uniquely engaged the right hippocampus, possibly as a response to the novelty of these events. In contrast to the construction phase, elaboration was characterized by remarkable overlap in regions comprising the autobiographical memory retrieval network, attributable to the common processes engaged during elaboration, including self-referential processing, contextual and episodic imagery. This striking neural overlap is consistent with findings that amnesic patients exhibit deficits in both past and future thinking, and confirms that the episodic system contributes importantly to imagining the future. PMID:17126370

Remembering the past and planning for the future in rats

PubMed Central

Crystal, Jonathon D.

2012-01-01

A growing body of research suggests that rats represent and remember specific earlier events from the past. An important criterion for validating a rodent model of episodic memory is to establish that the content of the representation is about a specific event in the past rather than vague information about remoteness. Recent evidence suggests that rats may also represent events that are anticipated to occur in the future. An important capacity afforded by a representation of the future is the ability to plan for the occurrence of a future event. However, relatively little is known about the content of represented future events and the cognitive mechanisms that may support planning. This article reviews evidence that rats remember specific earlier events from the past, represent events that are anticipated to ccur in the future, and develops criteria for validating a rodent model of future planning. These criteria include representing a specific time in the future, the ability to temporarily disengage from a plan and reactivate the plan at an appropriate time in the future, and flexibility to deploy a plan in novel conditions. PMID:23219951

Future cardiovascular disease in China: Markov model and risk factor scenario projections from the Coronary Heart Disease Policy Model-China

PubMed Central

Moran, Andrew; Gu, Dongfeng; Zhao, Dong; Coxson, Pamela; Wang, Y. Claire; Chen, Chung-Shiuan; Liu, Jing; Cheng, Jun; Bibbins-Domingo, Kirsten; Shen, Yu-Ming; He, Jiang; Goldman, Lee

2010-01-01

Background The relative effects of individual and combined risk factor trends on future cardiovascular disease in China have not been quantified in detail. Methods and Results Future risk factor trends in China were projected based on prior trends. Cardiovascular disease (coronary heart disease and stroke) in adults ages 35 to 84 years was projected from 2010 to 2030 using the Coronary Heart Disease Policy Model–China, a Markov computer simulation model. With risk factor levels held constant, projected annual cardiovascular events increased by >50% between 2010 and 2030 based on population aging and growth alone. Projected trends in blood pressure, total cholesterol, diabetes (increases), and active smoking (decline) would increase annual cardiovascular disease events by an additional 23%, an increase of approximately 21.3 million cardiovascular events and 7.7 million cardiovascular deaths over 2010 to 2030. Aggressively reducing active smoking in Chinese men to 20% prevalence in 2020 and 10% prevalence in 2030 or reducing mean systolic blood pressure by 3.8 mm Hg in men and women would counteract adverse trends in other risk factors by preventing cardiovascular events and 2.9 to 5.7 million total deaths over 2 decades. Conclusions Aging and population growth will increase cardiovascular disease by more than a half over the coming 20 years, and projected unfavorable trends in blood pressure, total cholesterol, diabetes, and body mass index may accelerate the epidemic. National policy aimed at controlling blood pressure, smoking, and other risk factors would counteract the expected future cardiovascular disease epidemic in China. PMID:20442213

Finding clusters of similar events within clinical incident reports: a novel methodology combining case based reasoning and information retrieval

PubMed Central

Tsatsoulis, C; Amthauer, H

2003-01-01

A novel methodological approach for identifying clusters of similar medical incidents by analyzing large databases of incident reports is described. The discovery of similar events allows the identification of patterns and trends, and makes possible the prediction of future events and the establishment of barriers and best practices. Two techniques from the fields of information science and artificial intelligence have been integrated—namely, case based reasoning and information retrieval—and very good clustering accuracies have been achieved on a test data set of incident reports from transfusion medicine. This work suggests that clustering should integrate the features of an incident captured in traditional form based records together with the detailed information found in the narrative included in event reports. PMID:14645892

Culture, temporal focus, and values of the past and the future.

PubMed

Guo, Tieyuan; Ji, Li-Jun; Spina, Roy; Zhang, Zhiyong

2012-08-01

This article examines cultural differences in how people value future and past events. Throughout four studies, the authors found that European Canadians attached more monetary value to an event in the future than to an identical event in the past, whereas Chinese and Chinese Canadians placed more monetary value to a past event than to an identical future event. The authors also showed that temporal focus-thinking about the past or future-explained cultural influences on the temporal value asymmetry effect. Specifically, when induced to think about and focus on the future, Chinese valued the future more than the past, just like Euro-Canadians; when induced to think about and focus on the past, Euro-Canadians valued the past more than the future, just like Chinese.

The mental time travel continuum: on the architecture, capacity, versatility and extension of the mental bridge into the past and future.

PubMed

Breeden, Prescott; Dere, Dorothea; Zlomuzica, Armin; Dere, Ekrem

2016-06-01

Mental time travel (MTT) is the ability to remember past events and to anticipate or imagine events in the future. MTT globally serves to optimize decision-making processes, improve problem-solving capabilities and prepare for future needs. MTT is also essential in providing our concept of self, which includes knowledge of our personality, our strengths and weaknesses, as well as our preferences and aversions. We will give an overview in which ways the capacity of animals to perform MTT is different from humans. Based on the existing literature, we conclude that MTT might represent a quantitative rather than qualitative entity with a continuum of MTT capacities in both humans and nonhuman animals. Given its high complexity, MTT requires a large processing capacity in order to integrate multimodal stimuli during the reconstruction of past and/or future events. We suggest that these operations depend on a highly specialized working memory subsystem, 'the MTT platform', which might represent a necessary additional component in the multi-component working memory model by Alan Baddeley.

The association between urinary calculi and increased risk of future cardiovascular events: A nationwide population-based study.

PubMed

Hsu, Chien-Yi; Chen, Yung-Tai; Huang, Po-Hsun; Leu, Hsin-Bang; Su, Yu-Wen; Chiang, Chia-Hung; Chen, Jaw-Wen; Chen, Tzeng-Ji; Lin, Shing-Jong; Chan, Wan-Leong

2016-05-01

Although accumulating evidence suggests urinary calculi may be associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD), the number of longitudinal studies linking urolithiasis to CVD events is limited. We investigated the association between urinary calculi and the risk of development of myocardial infarction (MI) and/or stroke in a nationwide, population-based cohort database in Taiwan. Our analyses were conducted using information from a random sample of 1 million people enrolled in the nationally representative Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database. A total of 81,546 subjects aged 18 years or above, including 40,773 subjects diagnosed with urinary calculi during the study period and a propensity score-matched 40,773 subjects without urinary calculi were enrolled in our study. During a 10-year follow-up period, 501 MI events and 1295 stroke events were identified. By comparison, the urinary calculi group had a higher incidence rate of MI occurrence (11.79 vs 8.94 per 10,000 person-years) and stroke (31.41 vs 22.45 per 10,000 person-years). Cox proportional hazard regression model analysis showed that development of urinary calculi was independently associated with higher risk of developing future MI (HR, 1.31; 95% CI, 1.09-1.56, p=0.003), stroke (HR, 1.39; 95% CI, 1.24-1.55, p<0.001), and total cardiovascular events (HR, 1.38; 95% CI, 1.25-1.51, p<0.001). Urinary calculi were associated with an increased risk of future cardiovascular events in the Asian population, which was consistent with the recent epidemiologic evidence in Western countries. Copyright © 2015 Japanese College of Cardiology. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Teaching dental students about patient communication following an adverse event: a pilot educational module.

PubMed

Raja, Sheela; Rajagopalan, Chelsea F; Patel, Janki; Van Kanegan, Kevin

2014-05-01

Adverse events are an important but understudied area in dentistry. Most dentists will face the issue of an adverse event several times in their clinical careers. The authors implemented a six-hour pilot educational module at one dental school to improve fourth-year dental students' knowledge and confidence in communicating with patients about adverse events. Based on results from the twenty-nine students who completed both the pre- and posttests, the module significantly increased the students' knowledge of the key concepts involved in adverse events. However, the module did not improve the students' confidence that they would be able to implement these communication skills in clinical situations. Based on these results, this article discusses how future educational efforts can be modified to better prepare students for the communication challenges associated with adverse events.

From memory to prospection: what are the overlapping and the distinct components between remembering and imagining?

PubMed Central

Zheng, Huimin; Luo, Jiayi; Yu, Rongjun

2014-01-01

Reflecting on past events and reflecting on future events are two fundamentally different processes, each traveling in the opposite direction of the other through conceptual time. But what we are able to imagine seems to be constrained by what we have previously experienced, suggesting a close link between memory and prospection. Recent theories suggest that recalling the past lies at the core of imagining and planning for the future. The existence of this link is supported by evidence gathered from neuroimaging, lesion, and developmental studies. Yet it is not clear exactly how the novel episodes people construct in their sense of the future develop out of their historical memories. There must be intermediary processes that utilize memory as a basis on which to generate future oriented thinking. Here, we review studies on goal-directed processing, associative learning, cognitive control, and creativity and link them with research on prospection. We suggest that memory cooperates with additional functions like goal-directed learning to construct and simulate novel events, especially self-referential events. The coupling between memory-related hippocampus and other brain regions may underlie such memory-based prospection. Abnormalities in this constructive process may contribute to mental disorders such as schizophrenia. PMID:25147532

Positive future orientation as a mediator between traumatic events and mental health among children affected by HIV/AIDS in rural China.

PubMed

Zhang, Jintao; Zhao, Guoxiang; Li, Xiaoming; Hong, Yan; Fang, Xiaoyi; Barnett, Douglas; Lin, Xiuyun; Zhao, Junfeng; Zhang, Liying

2009-12-01

The current study was designed to explore the effect of future orientation in mediating the relationship between traumatic events and mental health in children affected by HIV/AIDS in rural China. Cross-sectional data were collected from 1221 children affected by HIV/AIDS (755 AIDS orphans and 466 vulnerable children). Future orientation among children was measured using three indicators (future expectation, hopefulness toward the future, and perceived control over the future). Measures of mental health consisted of depression, loneliness, and self-esteem. Children's experience of any traumatic events was measured using a modified version of the Life Incidence of Traumatic Events-Student Form. Mediation analysis was conducted using structural equation modeling (SEM) methods. Among the children surveyed, most of the traumatic indicators were negatively associated with future expectation, hopefulness, perceived control, and self-esteem, and positively associated with depression and loneliness. The SEM of mediation analysis demonstrated an adequate fit. Future orientation fully mediated the relationship between traumatic events and mental health and accounted for 67.9% of the total effect of traumatic events on mental health. Results of this study support the positive effect of future expectation in mediating the relationship between traumatic events and mental health among children affected by HIV/AIDS in China. Future mental health promotion and intervention efforts targeting children affected by HIV/AIDS should include components that can mitigate the negative impact of traumatic events on their lives. These components may aim to develop children's positive future expectations, increase their hopefulness toward the future, and improve their perceived control over the future.

Hydro-meteorological drought event sets in the UK based on a large ensemble of global-regional climate simulations: climatology, drivers and changes in the future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guillod, B. P.; Massey, N.; Otto, F. E. L.; Allen, M. R.; Jones, R.; Hall, J. W.

2016-12-01

Extreme events being rare by definition, accurately quantifying the probabilities associated with a given event is difficult. This is particularly true for droughts, for which only few events are available in the observational record owing to their long-lasting characteristics. The MaRIUS project (Managing the Risks, Impacts and Uncertainties of drought and water Scarcity) aims at quantifying present and future risks associated with droughts in the UK. To do so, a large number of modelled weather time series for "synthetic" drought events are being fed into hydrological and impact models to assess their impacts on various sectors (social sciences, economy, industry, agriculture, and ecosystems). Here, we present and analyse the hydro-meteorological drought event sets that have been produced with a new version of weather@home [1] for MaRIUS. Using idle processor time on volunteers' computers around the world, we have run a very large number (10'000s) of Global Climate Model simulations, downscaled at 25km over Europe by a nested Regional Climate Model. Simulations include the past 100 years as well as two future time slices (2030s and 2080s), and provide a large number of sequences of spatio-temporally coherent weather, which are consistent with the boundary forcing such as the ocean, greenhouse gases and solar forcing. Beside presenting the methodology and validation of the event sets, we provide insights into drought risk in the UK and the drivers of drought. In particular, we examine their sensitivity to sea surface temperature and sea ice patterns, both in the recent past and for future projections. How drought risk in the UK can be expected to change in the future will also be discussed. Finally, we assess the applicability of this methodology to other regions. Reference: [1] Massey, N. et al., 2014, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc.

FutureCoast: "Listen to your futures"

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pfirman, S. L.; Eklund, K.; Thacher, S.; Orlove, B. S.; Diane Stovall-Soto, G.; Brunacini, J.; Hernandez, T.

2014-12-01

Two science-arts approaches are emerging as effective means to convey "futurethinking" to learners: systems gaming and experiential futures. FutureCoast exemplifies the latter: by engaging participants with voicemails supposedly leaking from the cloud of possible futures, the storymaking game frames the complexities of climate science in relatable contexts. Because participants make the voicemails themselves, FutureCoast opens up creative ways for people to think about possibly climate-changed futures and personal ways to talk about them. FutureCoast is a project of the PoLAR Partnership with a target audience of informal adult learners primarily reached via mobile devices and online platforms. Scientists increasingly use scenarios and storylines as ways to explore the implications of environmental change and societal choices. Stories help people make connections across experiences and disciplines and link large-scale events to personal consequences. By making the future seem real today, FutureCoast's framework helps people visualize and plan for future climate changes. The voicemails contributed to FutureCoast are spread through the game's intended timeframe (2020 through 2065). Based on initial content analysis of voicemail text, common themes include ecosystems and landscapes, weather, technology, societal issues, governance and policy. Other issues somewhat less frequently discussed include security, food, industry and business, health, energy, infrastructure, water, economy, and migration. Further voicemail analysis is examining: temporal dimensions (salient time frames, short vs. long term issues, intergenerational, etc.), content (adaptation vs. mitigation, challenges vs. opportunities, etc.), and emotion (hopeful, resigned, etc. and overall emotional context). FutureCoast also engaged audiences through facilitated in-person experiences, geocaching events, and social media (Tumblr, Twitter, Facebook, YouTube). Analysis of the project suggests story-based games such as FutureCoast can serve as effective, accessible tools for engaging diverse audiences in thinking and talking about future "what if?" scenarios related to climate change and its impacts.

Envisioning the times of future events: The role of personal goals.

PubMed

Ben Malek, Hédi; Berna, Fabrice; D'Argembeau, Arnaud

2018-05-25

Episodic future thinking refers to the human capacity to imagine or simulate events that might occur in one's personal future. Previous studies have shown that personal goals guide the construction and organization of episodic future thoughts, and here we sought to investigate the role of personal goals in the process of locating imagined events in time. Using a think-aloud protocol, we found that dates were directly accessed more frequently for goal-related than goal-unrelated future events, and the goal-relevance of events was a significant predictor of direct access to temporal information on a trial-by-trial basis. Furthermore, when an event was not directly dated, references to anticipated lifetime periods were more frequently used as a strategy to determine when a goal-related event might occur. Together, these findings shed new light on the mechanisms by which personal goals contribute to the location of imagined events in future times. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Well-being and Anticipation for Future Positive Events: Evidences from an fMRI Study.

PubMed

Luo, Yangmei; Chen, Xuhai; Qi, Senqing; You, Xuqun; Huang, Xiting

2017-01-01

Anticipation for future confers great benefits to human well-being and mental health. However, previous work focus on how people's well-being correlate with brain activities during perception of emotional stimuli, rather than anticipation for the future events. Here, the current study investigated how well-being relates to neural circuitry underlying the anticipating process of future desired events. Using event-related functional magnetic resonance imaging, 40 participants were scanned while they were performing an emotion anticipation task, in which they were instructed to anticipate the positive or neutral events. The results showed that bilateral medial prefrontal cortex (MPFC) were activated during anticipation for positive events relative to neutral events, and the enhanced brain activation in MPFC was associated with higher level of well-being. The findings suggest a neural mechanism by which the anticipation process to future desired events correlates to human well-being, which provide a future-oriented view on the neural sources of well-being.

Well-being and Anticipation for Future Positive Events: Evidences from an fMRI Study

PubMed Central

Luo, Yangmei; Chen, Xuhai; Qi, Senqing; You, Xuqun; Huang, Xiting

2018-01-01

Anticipation for future confers great benefits to human well-being and mental health. However, previous work focus on how people’s well-being correlate with brain activities during perception of emotional stimuli, rather than anticipation for the future events. Here, the current study investigated how well-being relates to neural circuitry underlying the anticipating process of future desired events. Using event-related functional magnetic resonance imaging, 40 participants were scanned while they were performing an emotion anticipation task, in which they were instructed to anticipate the positive or neutral events. The results showed that bilateral medial prefrontal cortex (MPFC) were activated during anticipation for positive events relative to neutral events, and the enhanced brain activation in MPFC was associated with higher level of well-being. The findings suggest a neural mechanism by which the anticipation process to future desired events correlates to human well-being, which provide a future-oriented view on the neural sources of well-being. PMID:29375415

Schizophrenia Spectrum Disorders Show Reduced Specificity and Less Positive Events in Mental Time Travel

PubMed Central

Chen, Xing-jie; Liu, Lu-lu; Cui, Ji-fang; Wang, Ya; Chen, An-tao; Li, Feng-hua; Wang, Wei-hong; Zheng, Han-feng; Gan, Ming-yuan; Li, Chun-qiu; Shum, David H. K.; Chan, Raymond C. K.

2016-01-01

Mental time travel refers to the ability to recall past events and to imagine possible future events. Schizophrenia (SCZ) patients have problems in remembering specific personal experiences in the past and imagining what will happen in the future. This study aimed to examine episodic past and future thinking in SCZ spectrum disorders including SCZ patients and individuals with schizotypal personality disorder (SPD) proneness who are at risk for developing SCZ. Thirty-two SCZ patients, 30 SPD proneness individuals, and 33 healthy controls participated in the study. The Sentence Completion for Events from the Past Test (SCEPT) and the Sentence Completion for Events in the Future Test were used to measure past and future thinking abilities. Results showed that SCZ patients showed significantly reduced specificity in recalling past and imagining future events, they generated less proportion of specific and extended events compared to healthy controls. SPD proneness individuals only generated less extended events compared to healthy controls. The reduced specificity was mainly manifested in imagining future events. Both SCZ patients and SPD proneness individuals generated less positive events than controls. These results suggest that mental time travel impairments in SCZ spectrum disorders and have implications for understanding their cognitive and emotional deficits. PMID:27507958

On the significance of future trends in flood frequencies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bernhardt, M.; Schulz, K.; Wieder, O.

2015-12-01

Floods are a significant threat for alpine headwater catchments and for the forelands. The formation of significant flood events is thereby often coupled on processes occurring in the alpine zone. Rain on snow events are just one example. The prediction of flood risks or trends of flood risks is of major interest to people under direct threat, policy and decision makers as well as for insurance companies. A lot of research was and is currently done in view of detecting future trends in flood extremes or return periods. From a pure physically based point of view, there is strong evidence that those trends exist. But, the central point question is if trends in flood events or other extreme events could be detected from a statistical point of view and on the basis of the available data. This study will investigate this question on the basis of different target parameters and by using long term measurements.

Learning Temporal Statistics for Sensory Predictions in Aging.

PubMed

Luft, Caroline Di Bernardi; Baker, Rosalind; Goldstone, Aimee; Zhang, Yang; Kourtzi, Zoe

2016-03-01

Predicting future events based on previous knowledge about the environment is critical for successful everyday interactions. Here, we ask which brain regions support our ability to predict the future based on implicit knowledge about the past in young and older age. Combining behavioral and fMRI measurements, we test whether training on structured temporal sequences improves the ability to predict upcoming sensory events; we then compare brain regions involved in learning predictive structures between young and older adults. Our behavioral results demonstrate that exposure to temporal sequences without feedback facilitates the ability of young and older adults to predict the orientation of an upcoming stimulus. Our fMRI results provide evidence for the involvement of corticostriatal regions in learning predictive structures in both young and older learners. In particular, we showed learning-dependent fMRI responses for structured sequences in frontoparietal regions and the striatum (putamen) for young adults. However, for older adults, learning-dependent activations were observed mainly in subcortical (putamen, thalamus) regions but were weaker in frontoparietal regions. Significant correlations of learning-dependent behavioral and fMRI changes in these regions suggest a strong link between brain activations and behavioral improvement rather than general overactivation. Thus, our findings suggest that predicting future events based on knowledge of temporal statistics engages brain regions involved in implicit learning in both young and older adults.

Not my future? Core values and the neural representation of future events.

PubMed

Brosch, Tobias; Stussi, Yoann; Desrichard, Olivier; Sander, David

2018-06-01

Individuals with pronounced self-transcendence values have been shown to put greater weight on the long-term consequences of their actions when making decisions. Using functional magnetic resonance imaging, we investigated the neural mechanisms underlying the evaluation of events occurring several decades in the future as well as the role of core values in these processes. Thirty-six participants viewed a series of events, consisting of potential consequences of climate change, which could occur in the near future (around 2030), and thus would be experienced by the participants themselves, or in the far future (around 2080). We observed increased activation in anterior VMPFC (BA11), a region involved in encoding the personal significance of future events, when participants were envisioning far future events, demonstrating for the first time that the role of the VMPFC in future projection extends to the time scale of decades. Importantly, this activation increase was observed only in participants with pronounced self-transcendence values measured by self-report questionnaire, as shown by a statistically significant interaction of temporal distance and value structure. These findings suggest that future projection mechanisms are modulated by self-transcendence values to allow for a more extensive simulation of far future events. Consistent with this, these participants reported similar concern ratings for near and far future events, whereas participants with pronounced self-enhancement values were more concerned about near future events. Our findings provide a neural substrate for the tendency of individuals with pronounced self-transcendence values to consider the long-term consequences of their actions.

Projected changes to rain-on-snow events over North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jeong, Dae Il; Sushama, Laxmi

2016-04-01

Rain-on-snow (ROS) events have significant impacts on cold region ecosystems and water-related natural hazards, and therefore it is very important to assess how this hydro-meteorological phenomenon will evolve in a changing climate. This study evaluates the changes in ROS characteristics (i.e., frequency, amounts, and runoff) for the future 2041-2070 period with respect to the current 1976-2005 period over North America using six simulations, based on two Canadian RCMs, driven by two driving GCMs for RCP4.5 and 8.5 emission pathways. Projected changes to extreme runoff caused by the changes of the ROS characteristics are also evaluated. All simulations suggest general increases in ROS days in late autumn, winter, and early spring periods for most Canadian regions and northwestern USA for the future period, due to an increase in rain days in a warmer climate. Increases in the future ROS amounts are projected mainly due to an increase in ROS days, although increases in precipitation intensity also contributes to the future increases. Future ROS runoff is expected to increase more than future ROS amounts during snowmelt months as ROS events usually enhance runoff, given the land state and asociated reduced soil infiltration rate and also due to the faster snowmelt rate occuring during these events. The simulations also show that ROS events usually lead to extreme runoff over most of Canada and north-western and -central USA in the January-May snowmelt months for the current period and these show no significant changes in the future climate. However, the future ROS to total runoff ratio will significantly decrease for western and eastern Canada as well as north-western USA for these months, due to an overall increase of the fraction of direct snowmelt and rainfall generated runoff in a warmer climate. These results indicate the difficulties of flood risk and water resource managements in the future, particularly in Canada and north-western and -central USA, requiring more in depth studies for these regions to facilitate appropriate adaptation measures.

Characterization of extreme precipitation within atmospheric river events over California

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jeon, S.; Prabhat,; Byna, S.

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are large, spatially coherent weather systems with high concentrations of elevated water vapor. These systems often cause severe downpours and flooding over the western coastal United States – and with the availability of more atmospheric moisture in the future under global warming we expect ARs to play an important role as potential causes of extreme precipitation changes. Therefore, we aim to investigate changes in extreme precipitation properties correlated with AR events in a warmer climate, which are large-scale meteorological patterns affecting the weather and climate of California. We have recently developed the TECA (Toolkit for Extreme Climatemore » Analysis) software for automatically identifying and tracking features in climate data sets. Specifically, we can now identify ARs that make landfall on the western coast of North America. Based on this detection procedure, we can investigate the impact of ARs by exploring the spatial extent of AR precipitation using climate model (CMIP5) simulations and characterize spatial patterns of dependence for future projections between AR precipitation extremes under climate change within the statistical framework. Our results show that AR events in the future RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway)8.5 scenario (2076–2100) tend to produce heavier rainfall with higher frequency and longer days than events from the historical run (1981–2005). We also find that the dependence between extreme precipitation events has a shorter spatial range, within localized areas in California, under the high future emissions scenario than under the historical run.« less

Characterization of extreme precipitation within atmospheric river events over California

DOE PAGES

Jeon, S.; Prabhat,; Byna, S.; ...

2015-11-17

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are large, spatially coherent weather systems with high concentrations of elevated water vapor. These systems often cause severe downpours and flooding over the western coastal United States – and with the availability of more atmospheric moisture in the future under global warming we expect ARs to play an important role as potential causes of extreme precipitation changes. Therefore, we aim to investigate changes in extreme precipitation properties correlated with AR events in a warmer climate, which are large-scale meteorological patterns affecting the weather and climate of California. We have recently developed the TECA (Toolkit for Extreme Climatemore » Analysis) software for automatically identifying and tracking features in climate data sets. Specifically, we can now identify ARs that make landfall on the western coast of North America. Based on this detection procedure, we can investigate the impact of ARs by exploring the spatial extent of AR precipitation using climate model (CMIP5) simulations and characterize spatial patterns of dependence for future projections between AR precipitation extremes under climate change within the statistical framework. Our results show that AR events in the future RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway)8.5 scenario (2076–2100) tend to produce heavier rainfall with higher frequency and longer days than events from the historical run (1981–2005). We also find that the dependence between extreme precipitation events has a shorter spatial range, within localized areas in California, under the high future emissions scenario than under the historical run.« less

An agent-based approach to modelling the effects of extreme events on global food prices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schewe, Jacob; Otto, Christian; Frieler, Katja

2015-04-01

Extreme climate events such as droughts or heat waves affect agricultural production in major food producing regions and therefore can influence the price of staple foods on the world market. There is evidence that recent dramatic spikes in grain prices were at least partly triggered by actual and/or expected supply shortages. The reaction of the market to supply changes is however highly nonlinear and depends on complex and interlinked processes such as warehousing, speculation, and export restrictions. Here we present for the first time an agent-based modelling framework that accounts, in simplified terms, for these processes and allows to estimate the reaction of world food prices to supply shocks on a short (monthly) timescale. We test the basic model using observed historical supply, demand, and price data of wheat as a major food grain. Further, we illustrate how the model can be used in conjunction with biophysical crop models to assess the effect of future changes in extreme event regimes on the volatility of food prices. In particular, the explicit representation of storage dynamics makes it possible to investigate the potentially nonlinear interaction between simultaneous extreme events in different food producing regions, or between several consecutive events in the same region, which may both occur more frequently under future global warming.

Brainstorming transformative solutions - Sustainable Puerto ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This narrative scenario depicts one of many possible futures for the island of Puerto Rico in which the goals of energy and food supply resilience have been met. Set in the year 2080, the narrative describes a series of hypothetical (but possible) events, a set of proactive governance actions and policies, and citizen responses to those events and interventions. The narrative is based on expert-opinion and extrapolation of trends in energy markets, technology, and policy development, as well as recent events in Puerto Rico. This narrative was developed as part of a futures exercise, and the outputs of a recent stakeholder and expert workshop, to inform modeling efforts underway by a coalition of researchers and local stakeholders -- an NSF-funded project entitled, Urban Resilience to Extreme Events. This narrative, which describes one of many potential energy futures for the island of Puerto Rico, uses expert opinion and extrapolation of recent trends in energy markets, technology, and policy development to describe a scenario in which Puerto Rico has achieved recently stated goals for energy and food systems resilience and sustainability. It will be used along with the outputs of a recent stakeholder workshop to inform model building. The document will be posted in the Urban Resilience to Extreme Events Research Network's blog.

The hippocampus and inferential reasoning: building memories to navigate future decisions

PubMed Central

Zeithamova, Dagmar; Schlichting, Margaret L.; Preston, Alison R.

2012-01-01

A critical aspect of inferential reasoning is the ability to form relationships between items or events that were not experienced together. This review considers different perspectives on the role of the hippocampus in successful inferential reasoning during both memory encoding and retrieval. Intuitively, inference can be thought of as a logical process by which elements of individual existing memories are retrieved and recombined to answer novel questions. Such flexible retrieval is sub-served by the hippocampus and is thought to require specialized hippocampal encoding mechanisms that discretely code events such that event elements are individually accessible from memory. In addition to retrieval-based inference, recent research has also focused on hippocampal processes that support the combination of information acquired across multiple experiences during encoding. This mechanism suggests that by recalling past events during new experiences, connections can be created between newly formed and existing memories. Such hippocampally mediated memory integration would thus underlie the formation of networks of related memories that extend beyond direct experience to anticipate future judgments about the relationships between items and events. We also discuss integrative encoding in the context of emerging evidence linking the hippocampus to the formation of schemas as well as prospective theories of hippocampal function that suggest memories are actively constructed to anticipate future decisions and actions. PMID:22470333

Do strategic processes contribute to the specificity of future simulation in depression?

PubMed

Addis, Donna Rose; Hach, Sylvia; Tippett, Lynette J

2016-06-01

The tendency to generate overgeneral past or future events is characteristic of individuals with a history of depression. Although much research has investigated the contribution of rumination and avoidance to the reduced specificity of past events, comparatively little research has examined (1) whether the specificity of future events is differentially reduced in depression and (2) the role of executive functions in this phenomenon. Our study aimed to redress this imbalance. Participants with either current or past experience of depressive symptoms ('depressive group'; N = 24) and matched controls ('control group'; N = 24) completed tests of avoidance, rumination, and executive functions. A modified Autobiographical Memory Test was administered to assess the specificity of past and future events. The depressive group were more ruminative and avoidant than controls, but did not exhibit deficits in executive function. Although overall the depressive group generated significantly fewer specific events than controls, this reduction was driven by a significant group difference in future event specificity. Strategic retrieval processes were correlated with both past and future specificity, and predictive of the future specificity, whereas avoidance and rumination were not. Our findings demonstrate that future simulation appears to be particularly vulnerable to disruption in individuals with current or past experience of depressive symptoms, consistent with the notion that future simulation is more cognitively demanding than autobiographical memory retrieval. Moreover, our findings suggest that even subtle changes in executive functions such as strategic processes may impact the ability to imagine specific future events. Future simulation may be particularly vulnerable to executive dysfunction in individuals with current/previous depressive symptoms, with evidence of a differential reduction in the specificity of future events. Strategic retrieval abilities were associated with the degree of future event specificity whereas levels of rumination and avoidance were not. Given that the ability to generate specific simulations of the future is associated with enhanced psychological wellbeing, problem solving and coping behaviours, understanding how to increase the specificity of future simulations in depression is an important direction for future research and clinical practice. Interventions focusing on improving the ability to engage strategic processes may be a fruitful avenue for increasing the ability to imagine specific future events in depression. The autobiographical event tasks have somewhat limited ecological validity as they do not account for the many social and environmental cues present in everyday life; the development of more clinically-relevant tasks may be of benefit to this area of study. © 2016 The British Psychological Society.

Preferential Inspection of Recent Real-World Events Over Future Events: Evidence from Eye Tracking during Spoken Sentence Comprehension

PubMed Central

Knoeferle, Pia; Carminati, Maria Nella; Abashidze, Dato; Essig, Kai

2011-01-01

Eye-tracking findings suggest people prefer to ground their spoken language comprehension by focusing on recently seen events more than anticipating future events: When the verb in NP1-VERB-ADV-NP2 sentences was referentially ambiguous between a recently depicted and an equally plausible future clipart action, listeners fixated the target of the recent action more often at the verb than the object that hadn’t yet been acted upon. We examined whether this inspection preference generalizes to real-world events, and whether it is (vs. isn’t) modulated by how often people see recent and future events acted out. In a first eye-tracking study, the experimenter performed an action (e.g., sugaring pancakes), and then a spoken sentence either referred to that action or to an equally plausible future action (e.g., sugaring strawberries). At the verb, people more often inspected the pancakes (the recent target) than the strawberries (the future target), thus replicating the recent-event preference with these real-world actions. Adverb tense, indicating a future versus past event, had no effect on participants’ visual attention. In a second study we increased the frequency of future actions such that participants saw 50/50 future and recent actions. During the verb people mostly inspected the recent action target, but subsequently they began to rely on tense, and anticipated the future target more often for future than past tense adverbs. A corpus study showed that the verbs and adverbs indicating past versus future actions were equally frequent, suggesting long-term frequency biases did not cause the recent-event preference. Thus, (a) recent real-world actions can rapidly influence comprehension (as indexed by eye gaze to objects), and (b) people prefer to first inspect a recent action target (vs. an object that will soon be acted upon), even when past and future actions occur with equal frequency. A simple frequency-of-experience account cannot accommodate these findings. PMID:22207858

Projected Changes in Temperature and Precipitation Extremes over China as Measured by 50-yr Return Values and Periods Based on a CMIP5 Ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Ying; Gao, Xuejie; Giorgi, Filippo; Zhou, Botao; Shi, Ying; Wu, Jie; Zhang, Yongxiang

2018-04-01

Future changes in the 50-yr return level for temperature and precipitation extremes over mainland China are investigated based on a CMIP5 multi-model ensemble for RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The following indices are analyzed: TXx and TNn (the annual maximum and minimum of daily maximum and minimum surface temperature), RX5day (the annual maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation) and CDD (maximum annual number of consecutive dry days). After first validating the model performance, future changes in the 50-yr return values and return periods for these indices are investigated along with the inter-model spread. Multi-model median changes show an increase in the 50-yr return values of TXx and a decrease for TNn, more specifically, by the end of the 21st century under RCP8.5, the present day 50-yr return period of warm events is reduced to 1.2 yr, while extreme cold events over the country are projected to essentially disappear. A general increase in RX5day 50-yr return values is found in the future. By the end of the 21st century under RCP8.5, events of the present RX5day 50-yr return period are projected to reduce to < 10 yr over most of China. Changes in CDD-50 show a dipole pattern over China, with a decrease in the values and longer return periods in the north, and vice versa in the south. Our study also highlights the need for further improvements in the representation of extreme events in climate models to assess the future risks and engineering design related to large-scale infrastructure in China.

Visual perspective in remembering and episodic future thought.

PubMed

McDermott, Kathleen B; Wooldridge, Cynthia L; Rice, Heather J; Berg, Jeffrey J; Szpunar, Karl K

2016-01-01

According to the constructive episodic simulation hypothesis, remembering and episodic future thinking are supported by a common set of constructive processes. In the present study, we directly addressed this assertion in the context of third-person perspectives that arise during remembering and episodic future thought. Specifically, we examined the frequency with which participants remembered past events or imagined future events from third-person perspectives. We also examined the different viewpoints from which third-person perspective events were remembered or imagined. Although future events were somewhat more likely to be imagined from a third-person perspective, the spatial viewpoint distributions of third-person perspectives characterizing remembered and imagined events were highly similar. These results suggest that a similar constructive mechanism may be at work when people remember events from a perspective that could not have been experienced in the past and when they imagine events from a perspective that could not be experienced in the future. The findings are discussed in terms of their consistency with--and as extensions of--the constructive episodic simulation hypothesis.

Probabilistic short-term forecasting of eruption rate at Kīlauea Volcano using a physics-based model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderson, K. R.

2016-12-01

Deterministic models of volcanic eruptions yield predictions of future activity conditioned on uncertainty in the current state of the system. Physics-based eruption models are well-suited for deterministic forecasting as they can relate magma physics with a wide range of observations. Yet, physics-based eruption forecasting is strongly limited by an inadequate understanding of volcanic systems, and the need for eruption models to be computationally tractable. At Kīlauea Volcano, Hawaii, episodic depressurization-pressurization cycles of the magma system generate correlated, quasi-exponential variations in ground deformation and surface height of the active summit lava lake. Deflations are associated with reductions in eruption rate, or even brief eruptive pauses, and thus partly control lava flow advance rates and associated hazard. Because of the relatively well-understood nature of Kīlauea's shallow magma plumbing system, and because more than 600 of these events have been recorded to date, they offer a unique opportunity to refine a physics-based effusive eruption forecasting approach and apply it to lava eruption rates over short (hours to days) time periods. A simple physical model of the volcano ascribes observed data to temporary reductions in magma supply to an elastic reservoir filled with compressible magma. This model can be used to predict the evolution of an ongoing event, but because the mechanism that triggers events is unknown, event durations are modeled stochastically from previous observations. A Bayesian approach incorporates diverse data sets and prior information to simultaneously estimate uncertain model parameters and future states of the system. Forecasts take the form of probability distributions for eruption rate or cumulative erupted volume at some future time. Results demonstrate the significant uncertainties that still remain even for short-term eruption forecasting at a well-monitored volcano - but also the value of a physics-based, mixed deterministic-probabilistic eruption forecasting approach in reducing and quantifying these uncertainties.

Defining Safety in the Nursing Home Setting: Implications for Future Research.

PubMed

Simmons, Sandra F; Schnelle, John F; Sathe, Nila A; Slagle, Jason M; Stevenson, David G; Carlo, Maria E; McPheeters, Melissa L

2016-06-01

Currently, the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality (AHRQ) Common Format for nursing homes (NHs) accommodates voluntary reporting for 4 adverse events: falls with injury, pressure ulcers, medication errors, and infections. In 2015, AHRQ funded a technical brief to describe the state of the science related to safety in the NH setting to inform a research agenda. Thirty-six recent systematic reviews evaluated NH safety-related interventions to address these 4 adverse events and reported mostly mixed evidence about effective approaches to ameliorate them. Furthermore, these 4 events are likely inadequate to capture safety issues that are unique to the NH setting and encompass other domains related to residents' quality of care and quality of life. Future research needs include expanding our definition of safety in the NH setting, which differs considerably from that of hospitals, to include contributing factors to adverse events as well as more resident-centered care measures. Second, future research should reflect more rigorous implementation science to include objective measures of care processes related to adverse events, intervention fidelity, and staffing resources for intervention implementation to inform broader uptake of efficacious interventions. Weaknesses in implementation contribute to the current inconclusive and mixed evidence base as well as remaining questions about what outcomes are even achievable in the NH setting, given the complexity of most resident populations. Also related to implementation, future research should determine the effects of specific staffing models on care processes related to safety outcomes. Last, future efforts should explore the potential for safety issues in other care settings for older adults, most notably dementia care within assisted living. Copyright © 2016 AMDA – The Society for Post-Acute and Long-Term Care Medicine. All rights reserved.

Projecting future impacts of hurricanes on the carbon balance of eastern U.S. forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fisk, J. P.; Hurtt, G. C.; Chambers, J. Q.; Zeng, H.; Dolan, K.; Flanagan, S.; Rourke, O.; Negron Juarez, R. I.

2011-12-01

In U.S. Atlantic coastal areas, hurricanes are a principal agent of catastrophic wind damage, with dramatic impacts on the structure and functioning of forests. Substantial recent progress has been made to estimate the biomass loss and resulting carbon emissions caused by hurricanes impacting the U.S. Additionally, efforts to evaluate the net effects of hurricanes on the regional carbon balance have demonstrated the importance of viewing large disturbance events in the broader context of recovery from a mosaic of past events. Viewed over sufficiently long time scales and large spatial scales, regrowth from previous storms may largely offset new emissions; however, changes in number, strength or spatial distribution of extreme disturbance events will result in changes to the equilibrium state of the ecosystem and have the potential to result in a lasting carbon source or sink. Many recent studies have linked climate change to changes in the frequency and intensity of hurricanes. In this study, we use a mechanistic ecosystem model, the Ecosystem Demography (ED) model, driven by scenarios of future hurricane activity based on historic activity and future climate projections, to evaluate how changes in hurricane frequency, intensity and spatial distribution could affect regional carbon storage and flux over the coming century. We find a non-linear response where increased storm activity reduces standing biomass stocks reducing the impacts of future events. This effect is highly dependent on the spatial pattern and repeat interval of future hurricane activity. Developing this kind of predictive modeling capability that tracks disturbance events and recovery is key to our understanding and ability to predict the carbon balance of forests.

Remembering and forecasting: The relation between autobiographical memory and episodic future thinking.

PubMed

Berntsen, Dorthe; Bohn, Annette

2010-04-01

Episodic future thinking is a projection of the self into the future to mentally preexperience an event. Previous work has shown striking similarities between autobiographical memory and episodic future thinking in response to various experimental manipulations. This has nurtured the idea of a shared neurocognitive system underlying both processes. Here, undergraduates generated autobiographical memories and future event representations in response to cue words and requests for important events and rated their characteristics. Important and word-cued events differed markedly on almost all measures. Past, as compared with future, events were rated as more sensorially vivid and less relevant to life story and identity. However, in contrast to previous work, these main effects were qualified by a number of interactions, suggesting important functional differences between the two temporal directions. For both temporal directions, sensory imagery dropped, whereas self-narrative importance and reference to normative cultural life script events increased with increasing temporal distance.

Coupling Post-Event and Prospective Analyses for El Niño-related Risk Reduction in Peru

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

French, Adam; Keating, Adriana; Mechler, Reinhard; Szoenyi, Michael; Cisneros, Abel; Chuquisengo, Orlando; Etienne, Emilie; Ferradas, Pedro

2017-04-01

Analyses in the wake of natural disasters play an important role in identifying how ex ante risk reduction and ex post hazard response activities have both succeeded and fallen short in specific contexts, thereby contributing to recommendations for improving such measures in the future. Event analyses have particular relevance in settings where disasters are likely to reoccur, and especially where recurrence intervals are short. This paper applies the Post Event Review Capability (PERC) methodology to the context of frequently reoccurring El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events in the country of Peru, where over the last several decades ENSO impacts have generated high levels of damage and economic loss. Rather than analyzing the impacts of a single event, this study builds upon the existing PERC methodology by combining empirical event analysis with a critical examination of risk reduction and adaptation measures implemented both prior to and following several ENSO events in the late 20th and early 21st centuries. Additionally, the paper explores linking the empirical findings regarding the uptake and outcomes of particular risk reduction and adaptation strategies to a prospective, scenario-based approach for projecting risk several decades into the future.

Chinese and Australians showed difference in mental time travel in emotion and content but not specificity

PubMed Central

Chen, Xing-Jie; Liu, Lu-Lu; Cui, Ji-Fang; Wang, Ya; Shum, David H. K.; Chan, Raymond C. K.

2015-01-01

Mental time travel refers to the ability to recall episodic past and imagine future events. The present study aimed to investigate cultural differences in mental time travel between Chinese and Australian university students. A total of 231 students (108 Chinese and 123 Australians) participated in the study. Their mental time travel abilities were measured by the Sentence Completion for Events from the Past Test (SCEPT) and the Sentence Completion for Events in the Future Test (SCEFT). Results showed that there were no cultural differences in the number of specific events generated for the past or future. Significant differences between the Chinese and Australian participants were found mainly in the emotional valence and content of the events generated. Both Chinese and Australian participants generated more specific positive events compared to negative events when thinking about the future and Chinese participants were more positive about their past than Australian participants when recalling specific events. For content, Chinese participants recalled more events about their interpersonal relationships, while Australian participants imagined more about personal future achievements. These findings shed some lights on cultural differences in episodic past and future thinking. PMID:26167154

An evaluation of performance-arts based HIV-prevention events in London with 13- 16-year-olds.

PubMed

Campbell, Tomás; Bath, Michael; Bradbear, Rachel; Cottle, Justine; Parrett, Neil

2009-09-01

The London borough of Newham is ethnically diverse and is one of the poorest regions in the UK. Rates of teenage pregnancy, sexually transmitted infections (STIs) and HIV are high compared to the rest of the country. One strand of the local school-based HIV-prevention programme for young people utilizes performance arts as a tool for HIV education and prevention. This study evaluated HIV knowledge, confidence and intention to use a condom in two groups of 13- 16-year-olds who had participated in performance-based events. Group 1 (n = 14) participated in a six-week programme of performance arts-based HIV education and prevention workshops, which culminated in a theatre-based performance. Group 2 (n = 65) were audience members who attended the performance. Participants completed a short questionnaire containing both qualitative and quantitative items. Qualitative data suggested that the participants had learned about condoms and their efficacy in preventing acquisition of HIV and sexually transmitted diseases. Quantitative results indicated that after participation in the events, respondents had more information about HIV and condom use; were more confident that they could insist on condom use with partners; and planned to use condoms in the future. There was a statistically significant difference between Groups 1 and 2 but because of the small numbers in Group 1 this result should be interpreted cautiously. Performance-based HIV-prevention activities may be a useful way to deliver HIV-prevention messages to young people. This evaluation will form the basis of a more systematic and robust evaluation of future events.

Does the self drive mental time travel?

PubMed

Shao, Yi; Yao, Xiang; Ceci, Stephen J; Wang, Qi

2010-11-01

Research on autobiographical remembering has shown the intertwined relationship between the self and memory. Very little is known about the role of the self in the anticipation of the future. To investigate the association, European American (N=61) and Chinese (N=60) college students each reported two past autobiographical events and anticipated two future events, and described themselves in the past, present, and future. The results from a content analysis found that, regardless of culture, the future self and events were more positive and socially oriented than the past self and events. In general, European Americans provided more positive events and self-descriptions than Chinese. Men showed more personal focus in both experiences and self-descriptions than women at all time epochs. Importantly, independent of culture and gender, the self rather than the past events predicted the valence and personal focus of future events. These findings offer new insights into the dynamic relations between the self and episodic thinking.

The Landscape of International Biosurveillance

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hartley, David M.; Nelson, Noele P.; Walters, Ronald A.

2010-02-01

Event-based biosurveillance is a scientific discipline in which diverse streams of data, available from the Internet, are characterized prospectively to provide information on infectious disease events. Biosurveillance complements traditional public health surveillance to provide both early warning of infectious disease events as well as situational awareness. The Global Health Security Action Group (GHSAG) of the Global Health Security Initiative is developing a biosurveillance capability that integrates and leverages component systems from member nations. This work discusses these biosurveillance systems and identifies needed future studies.

The neural basis of temporal order processing in past and future thought.

PubMed

D'Argembeau, Arnaud; Jeunehomme, Olivier; Majerus, Steve; Bastin, Christine; Salmon, Eric

2015-01-01

Although growing evidence has shown that remembering the past and imagining the future recruit a common core network of frontal-parietal-temporal regions, the extent to which these regions contribute to the temporal dimension of autobiographical thought remains unclear. In this fMRI study, we focused on the event-sequencing aspect of time and examined whether ordering past and future events involve common neural substrates. Participants had to determine which of two past (or future) events occurred (or would occur) before the other, and these order judgments were compared with a task requiring to think about the content of the same past or future events. For both past and future events, we found that the left posterior hippocampus was more activated when establishing the order of events, whereas the anterior hippocampus was more activated when representing their content. Aside from the hippocampus, most of the brain regions that were activated when thinking about temporal order (notably the intraparietal sulcus, dorsolateral pFC, dorsal anterior cingulate, and visual cortex) lied outside the core network and may reflect the involvement of controlled processes and visuospatial imagery to locate events in time. Collectively, these findings suggest (a) that the same processing operations are engaged for ordering past events and planned future events in time, (b) that anterior and posterior portions of the hippocampus are involved in processing different aspects of autobiographical thought, and (c) that temporal order is not necessarily an intrinsic property of memory or future thought but instead requires additional, controlled processes.

Contribution of past and future self-defining event networks to personal identity.

PubMed

Demblon, Julie; D'Argembeau, Arnaud

2017-05-01

Personal identity is nourished by memories of significant past experiences and by the imagination of meaningful events that one anticipates to happen in the future. The organisation of such self-defining memories and prospective thoughts in the cognitive system has received little empirical attention, however. In the present study, our aims were to investigate to what extent self-defining memories and future projections are organised in networks of related events, and to determine the nature of the connections linking these events. Our results reveal the existence of self-defining event networks, composed of both memories and future events of similar centrality for identity and characterised by similar identity motives. These self-defining networks expressed a strong internal coherence and frequently organised events in meaningful themes and sequences (i.e., event clusters). Finally, we found that the satisfaction of identity motives in represented events and the presence of clustering across events both contributed to increase in the perceived centrality of events for the sense of identity. Overall, these findings suggest that personal identity is not only nourished by representations of significant past and future events, but also depends on the formation of coherent networks of related events that provide an overarching meaning to specific life experiences.

Age-Related Positivity Effects and Autobiographical Memory Detail: Evidence from a Past/Future Source Memory Task

PubMed Central

Gallo, David A.; Korthauer, Laura E.; McDonough, Ian M.; Teshale, Salom; Johnson, Elizabeth L.

2013-01-01

This study investigated whether the age-related positivity effect strengthens specific event details in autobiographical memory. Participants retrieved past events or imagined future events in response to neutral or emotional cue words. Older adults rated each kind of event more positively than younger adults, demonstrating an age-related positivity effect. We next administered a source memory test. Participants were given the same cue words and tried to retrieve the previously generated event and its source (past or future). Accuracy on this source test should depend on the recollection of specific details about the earlier generated events, providing a more objective measure of those details than subjective ratings. We found that source accuracy was greater for positive than negative future events in both age groups, suggesting that positive future events were more detailed. In contrast, valence did not affect source accuracy for past events in either age group, suggesting that positive and negative past events were equally detailed. Although aging can bias people to focus on positive aspects of experience, this bias does not appear to strengthen the availability of details for positive relative to negative past events. PMID:21919591

Episodic and Semantic Memory Contribute to Familiar and Novel Episodic Future Thinking.

PubMed

Wang, Tong; Yue, Tong; Huang, Xi Ting

2016-01-01

Increasing evidence indicates that episodic future thinking (EFT) relies on both episodic and semantic memory; however, event familiarity may importantly affect the extent to which episodic and semantic memory contribute to EFT. To test this possibility, two behavioral experiments were conducted. In Experiment 1, we directly compared the proportion of episodic and semantic memory used in an EFT task. The results indicated that more episodic memory was used when imagining familiar future events compared with novel future events. Conversely, significantly more semantic memory was used when imagining novel events compared with familiar events. Experiment 2 aimed to verify the results of Experiment 1. In Experiment 2, we found that familiarity moderated the effect of priming the episodic memory system on EFT; particularly, it increased the time required to construct a standard familiar episodic future event, but did not significantly affect novel episodic event reaction time. Collectively, these findings support the hypothesis that event familiarity importantly moderates episodic and semantic memory's contribution to EFT.

ENSO Diversity Changes Due To Global Warming In CESM-LE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carreric, A.; Dewitte, B.; Guemas, V.

2017-12-01

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is predicted to be modified due to global warming based on the CMIP3 and CMIP5 data bases. In particular the frequency of occurrence of extreme Eastern Pacific El Niño events is to double in the future in response to the increase in green-house gazes. Such forecast relies however on state-of-the-art models that still present mean state biases and do not simulate realistically key features of El Niño events such as its diversity which is related to the existence of at least two types of El Niño events, the Eastern Pacific (EP) El Nino and the Central Pacific (CP) El Niño events. Here we take advantage of the Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large Ensemble (LE) that provides 35 realizations of the climate of the 1920-2100 period with a combination of both natural and anthropogenic climate forcing factors, to explore on the one hand methods to detect changes in ENSO statistics and on the other hand to investigate changes in thermodynamical processes associated to the increase oceanic stratification owed to global warming. The CESM simulates realistically many aspects of the ENSO diversity, in particular the non-linear evolution of the phase space of the first two EOF modes of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical Pacific. Based on indices accounting for the two ENSO regimes used in the literature, we show that, although there is no statistically significant (i.e. confidence level > 95%) changes in the occurrence of El Niño types from the present to the future climate, the estimate of the changes is sensitive to the definition of ENSO indices that is used. CESM simulates in particular an increase occurrence of extreme El Niño events that can vary by 28% from one method to the other. It is shown that the seasonal evolution of EP El Niño events is modified from the present to the future climate, with in particular a larger occurrence of events taking place in Austral summer in the warmer climate compared to events peaking in Austral winter. The ENSO non-linearity is also showed to increase, which is interpreted as resulting from the increased stratification based on the analysis of the control experiment and an estimate of the oceanic mixed-layer heat budget. Implications for understanding processes associated to change in ENSO in a warmer climate are discussed.

Synthetic drought event sets: thousands of meteorological drought events for risk-based management under present and future conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guillod, Benoit P.; Massey, Neil; Otto, Friederike E. L.; Allen, Myles R.; Jones, Richard; Hall, Jim W.

2016-04-01

Droughts and related water scarcity can have large impacts on societies and consist of interactions between a number of natural and human factors. Meteorological conditions are usually the first natural trigger of droughts, and climate change is expected to impact these and thereby the frequency and intensity of the events. However, extreme events such as droughts are, by definition, rare, and accurately quantifying the risk related to such events is therefore difficult. The MaRIUS project (Managing the Risks, Impacts and Uncertainties of drought and water Scarcity) aims at quantifying the risks associated with droughts in the UK under present and future conditions. To do so, a large number of drought events, from climate model simulations downscaled at 25km over Europe, are being fed into hydrological models of various complexity and used for the estimation of drought risk associated with human and natural systems, including impacts on the economy, industry, agriculture, terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, and socio-cultural aspects. Here, we present the hydro-meteorological drought event set that has been produced by weather@home [1] for MaRIUS. Using idle processor time on volunteers' computers around the world, we have run a very large number (10'000s) of Global Climate Model (GCM) simulations, downscaled at 25km over Europe by a nested Regional Climate Model (RCM). Simulations include the past 100 years as well as two future horizons (2030s and 2080s), and provide a large number of sequences of spatio-temporally consistent weather, which are consistent with the boundary forcing such as the ocean, greenhouse gases and solar forcing. The drought event set for use in impact studies is constructed by extracting sequences of dry conditions from these model runs, leading to several thousand drought events. In addition to describing methodological and validation aspects of the synthetic drought event sets, we provide insights into drought risk in the UK, its meteorological drivers, and how it can be expected to change in the future. Finally, we assess the applicability of this methodology to other regions. [1] Massey, N. et al., 2014, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc.

Improving prospective memory performance with future event simulation in traumatic brain injury patients.

PubMed

Mioni, Giovanna; Bertucci, Erica; Rosato, Antonella; Terrett, Gill; Rendell, Peter G; Zamuner, Massimo; Stablum, Franca

2017-06-01

Previous studies have shown that traumatic brain injury (TBI) patients have difficulties with prospective memory (PM). Considering that PM is closely linked to independent living it is of primary interest to develop strategies that can improve PM performance in TBI patients. This study employed Virtual Week task as a measure of PM, and we included future event simulation to boost PM performance. Study 1 evaluated the efficacy of the strategy and investigated possible practice effects. Twenty-four healthy participants performed Virtual Week in a no strategy condition, and 24 healthy participants performed it in a mixed condition (no strategy - future event simulation). In Study 2, 18 TBI patients completed the mixed condition of Virtual Week and were compared with the 24 healthy controls who undertook the mixed condition of Virtual Week in Study 1. All participants also completed a neuropsychological evaluation to characterize the groups on level of cognitive functioning. Study 1 showed that participants in the future event simulation condition outperformed participants in the no strategy condition, and these results were not attributable to practice effects. Results of Study 2 showed that TBI patients performed PM tasks less accurately than controls, but that future event simulation can substantially reduce TBI-related deficits in PM performance. The future event simulation strategy also improved the controls' PM performance. These studies showed the value of future event simulation strategy in improving PM performance in healthy participants as well as in TBI patients. TBI patients performed PM tasks less accurately than controls, confirming prospective memory impairment in these patients. Participants in the future event simulation condition out-performed participants in the no strategy condition. Future event simulation can substantially reduce TBI-related deficits in PM performance. Future event simulation strategy also improved the controls' PM performance. © 2017 The British Psychological Society.

On the predictability of outliers in ensemble forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siegert, S.; Bröcker, J.; Kantz, H.

2012-03-01

In numerical weather prediction, ensembles are used to retrieve probabilistic forecasts of future weather conditions. We consider events where the verification is smaller than the smallest, or larger than the largest ensemble member of a scalar ensemble forecast. These events are called outliers. In a statistically consistent K-member ensemble, outliers should occur with a base rate of 2/(K+1). In operational ensembles this base rate tends to be higher. We study the predictability of outlier events in terms of the Brier Skill Score and find that forecast probabilities can be calculated which are more skillful than the unconditional base rate. This is shown analytically for statistically consistent ensembles. Using logistic regression, forecast probabilities for outlier events in an operational ensemble are calculated. These probabilities exhibit positive skill which is quantitatively similar to the analytical results. Possible causes of these results as well as their consequences for ensemble interpretation are discussed.

A wrinkle in time: asymmetric valuation of past and future events.

PubMed

Caruso, Eugene M; Gilbert, Daniel T; Wilson, Timothy D

2008-08-01

A series of studies shows that people value future events more than equivalent events in the equidistant past. Whether people imagined being compensated or compensating others, they required and offered more compensation for events that would take place in the future than for identical events that had taken place in the past. This temporal value asymmetry (TVA) was robust in between-persons comparisons and absent in within-persons comparisons, which suggests that participants considered the TVA irrational. Contemplating future events produced greater affect than did contemplating past events, and this difference mediated the TVA. We suggest that the TVA, the gain-loss asymmetry, and hyperbolic time discounting can be unified in a three-dimensional value function that describes how people value gains and losses of different magnitudes at different moments in time.

A high-speed DAQ framework for future high-level trigger and event building clusters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caselle, M.; Ardila Perez, L. E.; Balzer, M.; Dritschler, T.; Kopmann, A.; Mohr, H.; Rota, L.; Vogelgesang, M.; Weber, M.

2017-03-01

Modern data acquisition and trigger systems require a throughput of several GB/s and latencies of the order of microseconds. To satisfy such requirements, a heterogeneous readout system based on FPGA readout cards and GPU-based computing nodes coupled by InfiniBand has been developed. The incoming data from the back-end electronics is delivered directly into the internal memory of GPUs through a dedicated peer-to-peer PCIe communication. High performance DMA engines have been developed for direct communication between FPGAs and GPUs using "DirectGMA (AMD)" and "GPUDirect (NVIDIA)" technologies. The proposed infrastructure is a candidate for future generations of event building clusters, high-level trigger filter farms and low-level trigger system. In this paper the heterogeneous FPGA-GPU architecture will be presented and its performance be discussed.

Episodic simulation of future events is impaired in mild Alzheimer's disease

PubMed Central

Addis, Donna Rose; Sacchetti, Daniel C.; Ally, Brandon A.; Budson, Andrew E.; Schacter, Daniel L.

2009-01-01

Recent neuroimaging studies have demonstrated that both remembering the past and simulating the future activate a core neural network including the medial temporal lobes. Regions of this network, in particular the medial temporal lobes, are prime sites for amyloid deposition and are structurally and functionally compromised in Alzheimer's disease (AD). While we know some functions of this core network, specifically episodic autobiographical memory, are impaired in AD, no study has examined whether future episodic simulation is similarly impaired. We tested the ability of sixteen AD patients and sixteen age-matched controls to generate past and future autobiographical events using an adapted version of the Autobiographical Interview. Participants also generated five remote autobiographical memories from across the lifespan. Event transcriptions were segmented into distinct details, classified as either internal (episodic) or external (non-episodic). AD patients exhibited deficits in both remembering past events and simulating future events, generating fewer internal and external episodic details than healthy older controls. The internal and external detail scores were strongly correlated across past and future events, providing further evidence of the close linkages between the mental representations of past and future. PMID:19497331

The devil is in the details: Comparisons of episodic simulations of positive and negative future events.

PubMed

Puig, Vannia A; Szpunar, Karl K

2017-08-01

Over the past decade, psychologists have devoted considerable attention to episodic simulation-the ability to imagine specific hypothetical events. Perhaps one of the most consistent patterns of data to emerge from this literature is that positive simulations of the future are rated as more detailed than negative simulations of the future, a pattern of results that is commonly interpreted as evidence for a positivity bias in future thinking. In the present article, we demonstrate across two experiments that negative future events are consistently simulated in more detail than positive future events when frequency of prior thinking is taken into account as a possible confounding variable and when level of detail associated with simulated events is assessed using an objective scoring criterion. Our findings are interpreted in the context of the mobilization-minimization hypothesis of event cognition that suggests people are especially likely to devote cognitive resources to processing negative scenarios. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Phenomenal characteristics associated with projecting oneself back into the past and forward into the future: influence of valence and temporal distance.

PubMed

D'Argembeau, Arnaud; Van der Linden, Martial

2004-12-01

As humans, we frequently engage in mental time travel, reliving past experiences and imagining possible future events. This study examined whether similar factors affect the subjective experience associated with remembering the past and imagining the future. Participants mentally "re-experienced" or "pre-experienced" positive and negative events that differed in their temporal distance from the present (close versus distant), and then rated the phenomenal characteristics (i.e., sensorial, contextual, and emotional details) associated with their representations. For both past and future, representations of positive events were associated with a greater feeling of re-experiencing (or pre-experiencing) than representations of negative events. In addition, representations of temporally close events (both past and future) contained more sensorial and contextual details, and generated a stronger feeling of re-experiencing (or pre-experiencing) than representations of temporally distant events. It is suggested that the way we both remember our past and imagine our future is constrained by our current goals.

Component processes underlying future thinking.

PubMed

D'Argembeau, Arnaud; Ortoleva, Claudia; Jumentier, Sabrina; Van der Linden, Martial

2010-09-01

This study sought to investigate the component processes underlying the ability to imagine future events, using an individual-differences approach. Participants completed several tasks assessing different aspects of future thinking (i.e., fluency, specificity, amount of episodic details, phenomenology) and were also assessed with tasks and questionnaires measuring various component processes that have been hypothesized to support future thinking (i.e., executive processes, visual-spatial processing, relational memory processing, self-consciousness, and time perspective). The main results showed that executive processes were correlated with various measures of future thinking, whereas visual-spatial processing abilities and time perspective were specifically related to the number of sensory descriptions reported when specific future events were imagined. Furthermore, individual differences in self-consciousness predicted the subjective feeling of experiencing the imagined future events. These results suggest that future thinking involves a collection of processes that are related to different facets of future-event representation.

Prevalence and determinants of direct and generative modes of production of episodic future thoughts in the word cueing paradigm.

PubMed

Jeunehomme, Olivier; D'Argembeau, Arnaud

2016-01-01

Recent research suggests that episodic future thoughts can be formed through the same dual mechanisms, direct and generative, as autobiographical memories. However, the prevalence and determinants of the direct production of future event representations remain unclear. Here, we addressed this issue by collecting self-reports of production modes, response times (RTs), and verbal protocols for the production past and future events in the word cueing paradigm. Across three experiments, we found that both past and future events were frequently reported to come directly to mind in response to the cue, and RTs confirmed that events were produced faster for direct than for generative responses. When looking at the determinants of direct responses, we found that most past and future events that were directly produced had already been thought of on a previous occasion, and the frequency of previous thoughts predicted the occurrence of direct access. The direct production of autobiographical thoughts was also more frequent for past and future events that were judged important and emotionally intense. Collectively, these findings provide novel evidence that the direct production of episodic future thoughts is frequent in the word cueing paradigm and often involves the activation of personally significant "memories of the future."

Repetition-Related Reductions in Neural Activity during Emotional Simulations of Future Events.

PubMed

Szpunar, Karl K; Jing, Helen G; Benoit, Roland G; Schacter, Daniel L

2015-01-01

Simulations of future experiences are often emotionally arousing, and the tendency to repeatedly simulate negative future outcomes has been identified as a predictor of the onset of symptoms of anxiety. Nonetheless, next to nothing is known about how the healthy human brain processes repeated simulations of emotional future events. In this study, we present a paradigm that can be used to study repeated simulations of the emotional future in a manner that overcomes phenomenological confounds between positive and negative events. The results show that pulvinar nucleus and orbitofrontal cortex respectively demonstrate selective reductions in neural activity in response to frequently as compared to infrequently repeated simulations of negative and positive future events. Implications for research on repeated simulations of the emotional future in both non-clinical and clinical populations are discussed.

Intensity changes in future extreme precipitation: A statistical event-based approach.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manola, Iris; van den Hurk, Bart; de Moel, Hans; Aerts, Jeroen

2017-04-01

Short-lived precipitation extremes are often responsible for hazards in urban and rural environments with economic and environmental consequences. The precipitation intensity is expected to increase about 7% per degree of warming, according to the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) relation. However, the observations often show a much stronger increase in the sub-daily values. In particular, the behavior of the hourly summer precipitation from radar observations with the dew point temperature (the Pi-Td relation) for the Netherlands suggests that for moderate to warm days the intensification of the precipitation can be even higher than 21% per degree of warming, that is 3 times higher than the expected CC relation. The rate of change depends on the initial precipitation intensity, as low percentiles increase with a rate below CC, the medium percentiles with 2CC and the moderate-high and high percentiles with 3CC. This non-linear statistical Pi-Td relation is suggested to be used as a delta-transformation to project how a historic extreme precipitation event would intensify under future, warmer conditions. Here, the Pi-Td relation is applied over a selected historic extreme precipitation event to 'up-scale' its intensity to warmer conditions. Additionally, the selected historic event is simulated in the high-resolution, convective-permitting weather model Harmonie. The initial and boundary conditions are alternated to represent future conditions. The comparison between the statistical and the numerical method of projecting the historic event to future conditions showed comparable intensity changes, which depending on the initial percentile intensity, range from below CC to a 3CC rate of change per degree of warming. The model tends to overestimate the future intensities for the low- and the very high percentiles and the clouds are somewhat displaced, due to small wind and convection changes. The total spatial cloud coverage in the model remains, as also in the statistical method, unchanged. The advantages of the suggested Pi-Td method of projecting future precipitation events from historic events is that it is simple to use, is less expensive time, computational and resource wise compared to a numerical model. The outcome can be used directly for hydrological and climatological studies and for impact analysis such as for flood risk assessments.

Exploring the content and quality of episodic future simulations in semantic dementia.

PubMed

Irish, Muireann; Addis, Donna Rose; Hodges, John R; Piguet, Olivier

2012-12-01

Semantic dementia (SD) is a progressive neurodegenerative disorder characterised by the amodal loss of semantic knowledge in the context of relatively preserved recent episodic memory. Recent studies have demonstrated that despite relatively intact episodic memory the capacity for future simulation in SD is profoundly impaired, resulting in an asymmetric profile where past retrieval is significantly better than future simulation (referred to as a past>future effect). Here, we sought to identify the origins of this asymmetric profile by conducting a fine-grained analysis of the contextual details provided during past retrieval and future simulation in SD. Participants with SD (n=14), Alzheimer's disease (n=11), and healthy controls (n=14) had previously completed an experimental past-future interview in which they generated three past events from the previous year, and three future events in the next year, and provided subjective qualitative ratings of vividness, emotional valence, emotional intensity, task difficulty, and personal significance for each event described. Our results confirmed the striking impairment for future simulation in SD, despite a relative preservation of past episodic retrieval. Examination of the contextual details provided for past memories and future simulations revealed significant impairments irrespective of contextual detail type for future simulations in SD, and demonstrated that the future thinking deficit in this cohort was driven by a marked decline in the provision of internal (episodic) event details. In contrast with this past>future effect for internal event details, SD patients displayed a future>past effect for external (non-episodic) event details. Analyses of the qualitative ratings provided for past and future events indicated that SD patients' phenomenological experience did not differ between temporal conditions. Our findings underscore the fact that successful extraction of episodic elements from the past is not sufficient for the generation of novel future simulations in SD. The notable disconnect between objective task performance and patients' subjective experience during future simulation likely reflects the tendency of SD patients to recast entire past events into the future condition. Accordingly, the familiarity of the recapitulated details results in similar ratings of vividness and emotionality across temporal conditions, despite marked differences in the richness of contextual details as the patient moves from the past to the future. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Meteorology Assessment of Historic Rainfall for Los Alamos During September 2013

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bruggeman, David Alan; Dewart, Jean Marie

2016-02-12

DOE Order 420.1, Facility Safety, requires that site natural phenomena hazards be evaluated every 10 years to support the design of nuclear facilities. The evaluation requires calculating return period rainfall to determine roof loading requirements and flooding potential based on our on-site rainfall measurements. The return period rainfall calculations are done based on statistical techniques and not site-specific meteorology. This and future studies analyze the meteorological factors that produce the significant rainfall events. These studies provide the meteorology context of the return period rainfall events.

An Architecture for Autonomous Rovers on Future Planetary Missions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ocon, J.; Avilés, M.; Graziano, M.

2018-04-01

This paper proposes an architecture for autonomous planetary rovers. This architecture combines a set of characteristics required in this type of system: high level of abstraction, reactive event-based activity execution, and automous navigation.

A LORETA study of mental time travel: similar and distinct electrophysiological correlates of re-experiencing past events and pre-experiencing future events.

PubMed

Lavallee, Christina F; Persinger, Michael A

2010-12-01

Previous studies exploring mental time travel paradigms with functional neuroimaging techniques have uncovered both common and distinct neural correlates of re-experiencing past events or pre-experiencing future events. A gap in the mental time travel literature exists, as paradigms have not explored the affective component of re-experiencing past episodic events; this study explored this sparsely researched area. The present study employed standardized low resolution electromagnetic tomography (sLORETA) to identify electrophysiological correlates of re-experience affect-laden and non-affective past events, as well as pre-experiencing a future anticipated event. Our results confirm previous research and are also novel in that we illustrate common and distinct electrophysiological correlates of re-experiencing affective episodic events. Furthermore, research from this experiment yields results outlining a pattern of activation in the frontal and temporal regions is correlated with the time frame of past or future events subjects imagined. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Data Mining of the Public Version of the FDA Adverse Event Reporting System

PubMed Central

Sakaeda, Toshiyuki; Tamon, Akiko; Kadoyama, Kaori; Okuno, Yasushi

2013-01-01

The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Adverse Event Reporting System (FAERS, formerly AERS) is a database that contains information on adverse event and medication error reports submitted to the FDA. Besides those from manufacturers, reports can be submitted from health care professionals and the public. The original system was started in 1969, but since the last major revision in 1997, reporting has markedly increased. Data mining algorithms have been developed for the quantitative detection of signals from such a large database, where a signal means a statistical association between a drug and an adverse event or a drug-associated adverse event, including the proportional reporting ratio (PRR), the reporting odds ratio (ROR), the information component (IC), and the empirical Bayes geometric mean (EBGM). A survey of our previous reports suggested that the ROR provided the highest number of signals, and the EBGM the lowest. Additionally, an analysis of warfarin-, aspirin- and clopidogrel-associated adverse events suggested that all EBGM-based signals were included in the PRR-based signals, and also in the IC- or ROR-based ones, and that the PRR- and IC-based signals were in the ROR-based ones. In this article, the latest information on this area is summarized for future pharmacoepidemiological studies and/or pharmacovigilance analyses. PMID:23794943

Structuring Disaster Recovery Infrastructure Decisions: Lessons from Boulder County's 2013 Flood Recovery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clavin, C.; Petropoulos, Z.

2017-12-01

Recovery phase decision making processes, as compared to mitigation and response phase decision making processes, require communities make significant financial and capital decisions in the months after a disaster. Collectively, these investments may significantly contribute to the resilience of a community to future hazards. Pre-disaster administrative decisions are well-established within existing planning processes. Post-event recovery requires community decision makers to quickly evaluate technical proposals and manage significant recovery financial resources to ensure their community rebuilds in a manner that will be more resilient to future events. These technical and administrative hurdles in the aftermath of a disaster create a challenging atmosphere to make sound, scientifically-informed decisions leading to resilient recovery. In September 2013, a 1,000-year rain event that resulted in flooding throughout the Front Range of Colorado, significantly impacting Boulder County. While the event is long past, disaster recovery efforts still continue in parts of Boulder County. Boulder County officials formed a county collaborative that adapted the NIST Community Resilience Planning Guide for Buildings and Infrastructure Systems to facilitate a goals-based multi-criteria decision making process. Rather than use hazard-based information to guide infrastructure design, the county's decision process established time-to-recovery goals for infrastructure systems that were used as criteria for project design. This presentation explores the decision-making process employed by Boulder County to specify design standards for resilient rebuilding of infrastructure systems and examine how this infrastructure planning model could be extrapolated to other situations where there is uncertainty regarding future infrastructure design standards.

Changing Health Behaviors to Improve Health Outcomes after Angioplasty: A Randomized Trial of Net Present Value versus Future Value Risk Communication

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Charlson, M. E.; Peterson, J. C.; Boutin-Foster, C.; Briggs, W. M.; Ogedegbe, G. G.; McCulloch, C. E.; Hollenberg, J.; Wong, C.; Allegrante, J. P.

2008-01-01

Patients who have undergone angioplasty experience difficulty modifying at-risk behaviors for subsequent cardiac events. The purpose of this study was to test whether an innovative approach to framing of risk, based on "net present value" economic theory, would be more effective in behavioral intervention than the standard "future value approach"…

Distinct and shared cognitive functions mediate event- and time-based prospective memory impairment in normal ageing

PubMed Central

Gonneaud, Julie; Kalpouzos, Grégoria; Bon, Laetitia; Viader, Fausto; Eustache, Francis; Desgranges, Béatrice

2011-01-01

Prospective memory (PM) is the ability to remember to perform an action at a specific point in the future. Regarded as multidimensional, PM involves several cognitive functions that are known to be impaired in normal aging. In the present study, we set out to investigate the cognitive correlates of PM impairment in normal aging. Manipulating cognitive load, we assessed event- and time-based PM, as well as several cognitive functions, including executive functions, working memory and retrospective episodic memory, in healthy subjects covering the entire adulthood. We found that normal aging was characterized by PM decline in all conditions and that event-based PM was more sensitive to the effects of aging than time-based PM. Whatever the conditions, PM was linked to inhibition and processing speed. However, while event-based PM was mainly mediated by binding and retrospective memory processes, time-based PM was mainly related to inhibition. The only distinction between high- and low-load PM cognitive correlates lays in an additional, but marginal, correlation between updating and the high-load PM condition. The association of distinct cognitive functions, as well as shared mechanisms with event- and time-based PM confirms that each type of PM relies on a different set of processes. PMID:21678154

A lifespan perspective on terrorism: age differences in trajectories of response to 9/11.

PubMed

Scott, Stacey B; Poulin, Michael J; Silver, Roxane Cohen

2013-05-01

A terrorist attack is an adverse event characterized by both an event-specific stressor and concern about future threats. Little is known about age differences in responses to terrorism. This longitudinal study examined generalized distress, posttraumatic stress responses, and fear of future attacks following the September 11, 2001 (9/11) terrorist attacks among a large U.S. national sample of adults (N = 2,240) aged 18-101 years. Individuals completed Web-based surveys up to 6 times over 3 years post 9/11. Multilevel models revealed different age-related patterns for distress, posttraumatic stress, and ongoing fear of future attacks. Specifically, older age was associated with lower overall levels of general distress, a steeper decline in posttraumatic stress over time, and less change in fear of future terrorist attacks over the 3 years. Understanding age differences in response to the stress of terrorism adds to the growing body of work on age differences in reactions to adversity.

Extreme Events in China under Climate Change: Uncertainty and related impacts (CSSP-FOREX)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leckebusch, Gregor C.; Befort, Daniel J.; Hodges, Kevin I.

2016-04-01

Suitable adaptation strategies or the timely initiation of related mitigation efforts in East Asia will strongly depend on robust and comprehensive information about future near-term as well as long-term potential changes in the climate system. Therefore, understanding the driving mechanisms associated with the East Asian climate is of major importance. The FOREX project (Fostering Regional Decision Making by the Assessment of Uncertainties of Future Regional Extremes and their Linkage to Global Climate System Variability for China and East Asia) focuses on the investigation of extreme wind and rainfall related events over Eastern Asia and their possible future changes. Here, analyses focus on the link between local extreme events and their driving weather systems. This includes the coupling between local rainfall extremes and tropical cyclones, the Meiyu frontal system, extra-tropical teleconnections and monsoonal activity. Furthermore, the relation between these driving weather systems and large-scale variability modes, e.g. NAO, PDO, ENSO is analysed. Thus, beside analysing future changes of local extreme events, the temporal variability of their driving weather systems and related large-scale variability modes will be assessed in current CMIP5 global model simulations to obtain more robust results. Beyond an overview of FOREX itself, first results regarding the link between local extremes and their steering weather systems based on observational and reanalysis data are shown. Special focus is laid on the contribution of monsoonal activity, tropical cyclones and the Meiyu frontal system on the inter-annual variability of the East Asian summer rainfall.

Optimizing Tsunami Forecast Model Accuracy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Whitmore, P.; Nyland, D. L.; Huang, P. Y.

2015-12-01

Recent tsunamis provide a means to determine the accuracy that can be expected of real-time tsunami forecast models. Forecast accuracy using two different tsunami forecast models are compared for seven events since 2006 based on both real-time application and optimized, after-the-fact "forecasts". Lessons learned by comparing the forecast accuracy determined during an event to modified applications of the models after-the-fact provide improved methods for real-time forecasting for future events. Variables such as source definition, data assimilation, and model scaling factors are examined to optimize forecast accuracy. Forecast accuracy is also compared for direct forward modeling based on earthquake source parameters versus accuracy obtained by assimilating sea level data into the forecast model. Results show that including assimilated sea level data into the models increases accuracy by approximately 15% for the events examined.

Modeling urban flood risk territories for Riga city

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piliksere, A.; Sennikovs, J.; Virbulis, J.; Bethers, U.; Bethers, P.; Valainis, A.

2012-04-01

Riga, the capital of Latvia, is located on River Daugava at the Gulf of Riga. The main flooding risks of Riga city are: (1) storm caused water setup in South part of Gulf of Riga (storm event), (2) water level increase caused by Daugava River discharge maximums (spring snow melting event) and (3) strong rainfall or rapid snow melting in densely populated urban areas. The first two flooding factors were discussed previously (Piliksere et al, 2011). The aims of the study were (1) the identification of the flood risk situations in densely populated areas, (2) the quantification of the flooding scenarios caused by rain and snow melting events of different return periods nowadays, in the near future (2021-2050), far future (2071-2100) taking into account the projections of climate change, (3) estimation of groundwater level for Riga city, (4) the building and calibration of the hydrological mathematical model based on SWMM (EPA, 2004) for the domain potentially vulnerable for rain and snow melt flooding events, (5) the calculation of rain and snow melting flood events with different return periods, (6) mapping the potentially flooded areas on a fine grid. The time series of short term precipitation events during warm time period of year (id est. rain events) were analyzed for 35 year long time period. Annual maxima of precipitation intensity for events with different duration (5 min; 15 min; 1h; 3h; 6h; 12h; 1 day; 2 days; 4 days; 10 days) were calculated. The time series of long term simultaneous precipitation data and observations of the reduction of thickness of snow cover were analyzed for 27 year long time period. Snow thawing periods were detected and maximum of snow melting intensity for events with different intensity (1day; 2 days; 4 days; 7 days; 10 days) were calculated. According to the occurrence probability six scenarios for each event for nowadays, near and far future with return period once in 5, 10, 20, 50, 100 and 200 years were constructed based on the Gumbell extreme value analysis. The hydrological modelling driven by the temperature and precipitation data series from regional climate models were used for evaluation of rain event maximums in the future periods. The usage of the climate model data in hydrological models causes systematic errors; therefore the bias correction method (Sennikovs, Bethers, 2009) was applied for determination of the future rainfall intensities. SWMM model was built for the urban area. Objects of hydraulic importance (manifold, penstock, ditch, pumping station, weir, well, catchment sub-basin etc.) were included in the model. There exist pure rain sewage system and mixed rain-water/household sewage system in Riga. Sewage system with wastewater load proportional to population density was taken account and calibrated. Model system was calibrated for a real rain event against the water flux time series into sewage treatment plant of Riga. High resolution (~1.5 points per square meter) digital terrain map was used as the base for finite element mesh for the geospatial mapping of results of hydraulic calculations. Main results of study are (1) detection of the hot spots of densely populated urban areas; (2) identification of the weak chains of the melioration and sewage systems; (3) mapping the elevation of ground water mainly caused by snow melting. A.Piliksere, A.Valainis, J.Seņņikovs, (2011), A flood risk assessment for Riga city taking account climate changes, EGU, Vienna, Austria. EPA, (2004), Storm water management model. User's manual version 5.0. US Environmental Protection Agency J.Sennikovs, U.Bethers, (2009), Statistical downscaling method of regional climate model results for hydrological modelling. 18th World IMACS/MODSIM Congress, Cairns, Australia.

Ten years of the European Astronaut Centre (EAC).

PubMed

Messerschmid, E; Haignere, J P; Damian, K

2000-11-01

The European Astronaut Centre, the home base of ESA's Astronaut Corps, celebrated its 10th anniversary on 17 May 2000 with a media event highlighting the past, present and future of the Agency's manned space programme.

Use of Unstructured Event-Based Reports for Global Infectious Disease Surveillance

PubMed Central

Blench, Michael; Tolentino, Herman; Freifeld, Clark C.; Mandl, Kenneth D.; Mawudeku, Abla; Eysenbach, Gunther; Brownstein, John S.

2009-01-01

Free or low-cost sources of unstructured information, such as Internet news and online discussion sites, provide detailed local and near real-time data on disease outbreaks, even in countries that lack traditional public health surveillance. To improve public health surveillance and, ultimately, interventions, we examined 3 primary systems that process event-based outbreak information: Global Public Health Intelligence Network, HealthMap, and EpiSPIDER. Despite similarities among them, these systems are highly complementary because they monitor different data types, rely on varying levels of automation and human analysis, and distribute distinct information. Future development should focus on linking these systems more closely to public health practitioners in the field and establishing collaborative networks for alert verification and dissemination. Such development would further establish event-based monitoring as an invaluable public health resource that provides critical context and an alternative to traditional indicator-based outbreak reporting. PMID:19402953

The Correlation Between Solar Energetic Particle Events and Coronal Mass Ejections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karelitz, A. M.; Pulkkinen, A.

2012-12-01

Solar energetic particle (SEP) events are a wide scale phenomena that are not only an issue for the 2,000+ costly satellites in the sky but also have negative implications on aviation, and even ground based communication. Forecasting the magnitude and duration of strong SEP events based on preceding events that are often associated with them, such as coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and solar flares, is an important step in future operational space weather as well as research. In order to provide a model connecting SEP and CME characteristics, six specific CMEs between 8/14/2010 and 5/17/12 that met specific qualifications (i.e. earth directed), were chosen and several parameters characterizing the connections were derived. From the derived data, correlations between many of the different parameters were tested. One of the more meaningful correlations that was found is between the peak flux of >10 MeV GOES protons and the speed of the CME. A logarithmic correlation between these two entities is clearly seen with a R^2 value of 0.78 and a fit of y=2.74e.^(003x). For forecasting purposes, the times of the arrival of the SEP event with respect to the evolution of the CME was also recorded. Another possibly meaningful correlation was found between SEP duration and CME speed with R^2 value of 0.56. The identified connections were verified by adding an event that occurred on July 12, 2012. Using the model connecting SEP peak flux and CME speed as produced in this study, space weather forecasters can better predict the magnitude of the SEP event that is a result of an earth directed CME. Doing so will enable precautions to be taken on spacecraft as well as ground based entities that are vulnerable to the high-energy protons. In future work, we plan to perform

Projection of seasonal summer precipitation over Indian sub-continent with a high-resolution AGCM based on the RCP scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woo, Sumin; Singh, Gyan Prakash; Oh, Jai-Ho; Lee, Kyoung-Min

2018-05-01

Seasonal changes in precipitation characteristics over India were projected using a high-resolution (40-km) atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) during the near- (2010-2039), mid- (2040-2069), and far- (2070-2099) futures. For the model evaluation, we simulated an Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project-type present-day climate using AGCM with observed sea-surface temperature and sea-ice concentration. Based on this simulation, we have simulated the current climate from 1979 to 2009 and subsequently the future climate projection until 2100 using a CMCC-CM model from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 models based on RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Using various observed precipitation data, the validation of the simulated precipitation indicates that the AGCM well-captured the high and low rain belts and also onset and withdrawal of monsoon in the present-day climate simulation. Future projections were performed for the above-mentioned time slices (near-, mid-, and far futures). The model projected an increase in summer precipitation from 7 to 18% under RCP4.5 and from 14 to 18% under RCP8.5 from the mid- to far futures. Projected summer precipitation from different time slices depicts an increase over northwest (NWI) and west-south peninsular India (SPI) and a reduction over northeast and north-central India. The model projected an eastward shift of monsoon trough around 2° longitude and expansion and intensification of Mascarene High and Tibetan High seems to be associated with projected precipitation. The model projected extreme precipitation events show an increase (20-50%) in rainy days over NWI and SPI. While a significant increase of about 20-50% is noticed in heavy rain events over SPI during the far future.

Preparing for what might happen: An episodic specificity induction impacts the generation of alternative future events.

PubMed

Jing, Helen G; Madore, Kevin P; Schacter, Daniel L

2017-12-01

A critical adaptive feature of future thinking involves the ability to generate alternative versions of possible future events. However, little is known about the nature of the processes that support this ability. Here we examined whether an episodic specificity induction - brief training in recollecting details of a recent experience that selectively impacts tasks that draw on episodic retrieval - (1) boosts alternative event generation and (2) changes one's initial perceptions of negative future events. In Experiment 1, an episodic specificity induction significantly increased the number of alternative positive outcomes that participants generated to a series of standardized negative events, compared with a control induction not focused on episodic specificity. We also observed larger decreases in the perceived plausibility and negativity of the original events in the specificity condition, where participants generated more alternative outcomes, relative to the control condition. In Experiment 2, we replicated and extended these findings using a series of personalized negative events. Our findings support the idea that episodic memory processes are involved in generating alternative outcomes to anticipated future events, and that boosting the number of alternative outcomes is related to subsequent changes in the perceived plausibility and valence of the original events, which may have implications for psychological well-being. Published by Elsevier B.V.

A General and Efficient Method for Incorporating Precise Spike Times in Globally Time-Driven Simulations

PubMed Central

Hanuschkin, Alexander; Kunkel, Susanne; Helias, Moritz; Morrison, Abigail; Diesmann, Markus

2010-01-01

Traditionally, event-driven simulations have been limited to the very restricted class of neuronal models for which the timing of future spikes can be expressed in closed form. Recently, the class of models that is amenable to event-driven simulation has been extended by the development of techniques to accurately calculate firing times for some integrate-and-fire neuron models that do not enable the prediction of future spikes in closed form. The motivation of this development is the general perception that time-driven simulations are imprecise. Here, we demonstrate that a globally time-driven scheme can calculate firing times that cannot be discriminated from those calculated by an event-driven implementation of the same model; moreover, the time-driven scheme incurs lower computational costs. The key insight is that time-driven methods are based on identifying a threshold crossing in the recent past, which can be implemented by a much simpler algorithm than the techniques for predicting future threshold crossings that are necessary for event-driven approaches. As run time is dominated by the cost of the operations performed at each incoming spike, which includes spike prediction in the case of event-driven simulation and retrospective detection in the case of time-driven simulation, the simple time-driven algorithm outperforms the event-driven approaches. Additionally, our method is generally applicable to all commonly used integrate-and-fire neuronal models; we show that a non-linear model employing a standard adaptive solver can reproduce a reference spike train with a high degree of precision. PMID:21031031

Flood hazard assessment in areas prone to flash flooding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kvočka, Davor; Falconer, Roger A.; Bray, Michaela

2016-04-01

Contemporary climate projections suggest that there will be an increase in the occurrence of high-intensity rainfall events in the future. These precipitation extremes are usually the main cause for the emergence of extreme flooding, such as flash flooding. Flash floods are among the most unpredictable, violent and fatal natural hazards in the world. Furthermore, it is expected that flash flooding will occur even more frequently in the future due to more frequent development of extreme weather events, which will greatly increase the danger to people caused by flash flooding. This being the case, there will be a need for high resolution flood hazard maps in areas susceptible to flash flooding. This study investigates what type of flood hazard assessment methods should be used for assessing the flood hazard to people caused by flash flooding. Two different types of flood hazard assessment methods were tested: (i) a widely used method based on an empirical analysis, and (ii) a new, physically based and experimentally calibrated method. Two flash flood events were considered herein, namely: the 2004 Boscastle flash flood and the 2007 Železniki flash flood. The results obtained in this study suggest that in the areas susceptible to extreme flooding, the flood hazard assessment should be conducted using methods based on a mechanics-based analysis. In comparison to standard flood hazard assessment methods, these physically based methods: (i) take into account all of the physical forces, which act on a human body in floodwater, (ii) successfully adapt to abrupt changes in the flow regime, which often occur for flash flood events, and (iii) rapidly assess a flood hazard index in a relatively short period of time.

Simulation of deep ventilation in Crater Lake, Oregon, 1951–2099

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wood, Tamara M.; Wherry, Susan A.; Piccolroaz, Sebastiano; Girdner, Scott F

2016-05-04

The frequency of deep ventilation events in Crater Lake, a caldera lake in the Oregon Cascade Mountains, was simulated in six future climate scenarios, using a 1-dimensional deep ventilation model (1DDV) that was developed to simulate the ventilation of deep water initiated by reverse stratification and subsequent thermobaric instability. The model was calibrated and validated with lake temperature data collected from 1994 to 2011. Wind and air temperature data from three general circulation models and two representative concentration pathways were used to simulate the change in lake temperature and the frequency of deep ventilation events in possible future climates. The lumped model air2water was used to project lake surface temperature, a required boundary condition for the lake model, based on air temperature in the future climates.The 1DDV model was used to simulate daily water temperature profiles through 2099. All future climate scenarios projected increased water temperature throughout the water column and a substantive reduction in the frequency of deep ventilation events. The least extreme scenario projected the frequency of deep ventilation events to decrease from about 1 in 2 years in current conditions to about 1 in 3 years by 2100. The most extreme scenario considered projected the frequency of deep ventilation events to be about 1 in 7.7 years by 2100. All scenarios predicted that the temperature of the entire water column will be greater than 4 °C for increasing lengths of time in the future and that the conditions required for thermobaric instability induced mixing will become rare or non-existent.The disruption of deep ventilation by itself does not provide a complete picture of the potential ecological and water quality consequences of warming climate to Crater Lake. Estimating the effect of warming climate on deep water oxygen depletion and water clarity will require careful modeling studies to combine the physical mixing processes affected by the atmosphere with the multitude of factors affecting the growth of algae and corresponding water clarity.

Christodoulou Memory of GW150914 - Prospects of Detection in LIGO and Future Detectors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, Aaron; Kapadia, Shasvath; Kennefick, Daniel

2017-01-01

The event GW150914 produced strains of the order 10-21 in the two instruments comprising the Laser Interferometric Gravitational Wave Observatory (LIGO). The event has been interpreted as originating in a coalescing black hole binary, with individual components of about 30 solar masses each. A striking aspect of the coalescence deduced from the signal is the emission of 3 solar masses of energy in the oscillating gravitational wave. Theory predicts a DC component of the gravitational signal associated with the emission of such large amounts of gravitational wave energy known as the Christodoulou memory. The memory, as a non-linear component of the signal, is expected to be an order of magnitude smaller than the amplitude of the primary AC component of the gravitational waves. We discuss the prospects of detecting the Christodoulou memory in similar future signals, both with LIGO and with other detectors, including future space-based instruments.

How Many Kilonovae Can Be Found in Past, Present, and Future Survey Data Sets?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scolnic, D.; Kessler, R.; Brout, D.; Cowperthwaite, P. S.; Soares-Santos, M.; Annis, J.; Herner, K.; Chen, H.-Y.; Sako, M.; Doctor, Z.; Butler, R. E.; Palmese, A.; Diehl, H. T.; Frieman, J.; Holz, D. E.; Berger, E.; Chornock, R.; Villar, V. A.; Nicholl, M.; Biswas, R.; Hounsell, R.; Foley, R. J.; Metzger, J.; Rest, A.; García-Bellido, J.; Möller, A.; Nugent, P.; Abbott, T. M. C.; Abdalla, F. B.; Allam, S.; Bechtol, K.; Benoit-Lévy, A.; Bertin, E.; Brooks, D.; Buckley-Geer, E.; Carnero Rosell, A.; Carrasco Kind, M.; Carretero, J.; Castander, F. J.; Cunha, C. E.; D’Andrea, C. B.; da Costa, L. N.; Davis, C.; Doel, P.; Drlica-Wagner, A.; Eifler, T. F.; Flaugher, B.; Fosalba, P.; Gaztanaga, E.; Gerdes, D. W.; Gruen, D.; Gruendl, R. A.; Gschwend, J.; Gutierrez, G.; Hartley, W. G.; Honscheid, K.; James, D. J.; Johnson, M. W. G.; Johnson, M. D.; Krause, E.; Kuehn, K.; Kuhlmann, S.; Lahav, O.; Li, T. S.; Lima, M.; Maia, M. A. G.; March, M.; Marshall, J. L.; Menanteau, F.; Miquel, R.; Neilsen, E.; Plazas, A. A.; Sanchez, E.; Scarpine, V.; Schubnell, M.; Sevilla-Noarbe, I.; Smith, M.; Smith, R. C.; Sobreira, F.; Suchyta, E.; Swanson, M. E. C.; Tarle, G.; Thomas, R. C.; Tucker, D. L.; Walker, A. R.; DES Collaboration

2018-01-01

The discovery of a kilonova (KN) associated with the Advanced LIGO (aLIGO)/Virgo event GW170817 opens up new avenues of multi-messenger astrophysics. Here, using realistic simulations, we provide estimates of the number of KNe that could be found in data from past, present, and future surveys without a gravitational-wave trigger. For the simulation, we construct a spectral time-series model based on the DES-GW multi-band light curve from the single known KN event, and we use an average of BNS rates from past studies of {10}3 {{Gpc}}-3 {{yr}}-1, consistent with the one event found so far. Examining past and current data sets from transient surveys, the number of KNe we expect to find for ASAS-SN, SDSS, PS1, SNLS, DES, and SMT is between 0 and 0.3. We predict the number of detections per future survey to be 8.3 from ATLAS, 10.6 from ZTF, 5.5/69 from LSST (the Deep Drilling/Wide Fast Deep), and 16.0 from WFIRST. The maximum redshift of KNe discovered for each survey is z=0.8 for WFIRST, z=0.25 for LSST, and z=0.04 for ZTF and ATLAS. This maximum redshift for WFIRST is well beyond the sensitivity of aLIGO and some future GW missions. For the LSST survey, we also provide contamination estimates from Type Ia and core-collapse supernovae: after light curve and template-matching requirements, we estimate a background of just two events. More broadly, we stress that future transient surveys should consider how to optimize their search strategies to improve their detection efficiency and to consider similar analyses for GW follow-up programs.

How Many Kilonovae Can Be Found in Past, Present, and Future Survey Data Sets?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Scolnic, D.; Kessler, R.; Brout, D.

The discovery of a kilonova (KN) associated with the Advanced LIGO (aLIGO)/Virgo event GW170817 opens up new avenues of multi-messenger astrophysics. Here, using realistic simulations, we provide estimates of the number of KNe that could be found in data from past, present, and future surveys without a gravitational-wave trigger. For the simulation, we construct a spectral time-series model based on the DES-GW multi-band light curve from the single known KN event, and we use an average of BNS rates from past studies ofmore » $${10}^{3}\\,{\\mathrm{Gpc}}^{-3}\\,{\\mathrm{yr}}^{-1}$$, consistent with the one event found so far. Examining past and current data sets from transient surveys, the number of KNe we expect to find for ASAS-SN, SDSS, PS1, SNLS, DES, and SMT is between 0 and 0.3. We predict the number of detections per future survey to be 8.3 from ATLAS, 10.6 from ZTF, 5.5/69 from LSST (the Deep Drilling/Wide Fast Deep), and 16.0 from WFIRST. The maximum redshift of KNe discovered for each survey is $z=0.8$ for WFIRST, $z=0.25$ for LSST, and $z=0.04$ for ZTF and ATLAS. This maximum redshift for WFIRST is well beyond the sensitivity of aLIGO and some future GW missions. For the LSST survey, we also provide contamination estimates from Type Ia and core-collapse supernovae: after light curve and template-matching requirements, we estimate a background of just two events. Finally, more broadly, we stress that future transient surveys should consider how to optimize their search strategies to improve their detection efficiency and to consider similar analyses for GW follow-up programs.« less

How Many Kilonovae Can Be Found in Past, Present, and Future Survey Data Sets?

DOE PAGES

Scolnic, D.; Kessler, R.; Brout, D.; ...

2017-12-22

The discovery of a kilonova (KN) associated with the Advanced LIGO (aLIGO)/Virgo event GW170817 opens up new avenues of multi-messenger astrophysics. Here, using realistic simulations, we provide estimates of the number of KNe that could be found in data from past, present, and future surveys without a gravitational-wave trigger. For the simulation, we construct a spectral time-series model based on the DES-GW multi-band light curve from the single known KN event, and we use an average of BNS rates from past studies ofmore » $${10}^{3}\\,{\\mathrm{Gpc}}^{-3}\\,{\\mathrm{yr}}^{-1}$$, consistent with the one event found so far. Examining past and current data sets from transient surveys, the number of KNe we expect to find for ASAS-SN, SDSS, PS1, SNLS, DES, and SMT is between 0 and 0.3. We predict the number of detections per future survey to be 8.3 from ATLAS, 10.6 from ZTF, 5.5/69 from LSST (the Deep Drilling/Wide Fast Deep), and 16.0 from WFIRST. The maximum redshift of KNe discovered for each survey is $z=0.8$ for WFIRST, $z=0.25$ for LSST, and $z=0.04$ for ZTF and ATLAS. This maximum redshift for WFIRST is well beyond the sensitivity of aLIGO and some future GW missions. For the LSST survey, we also provide contamination estimates from Type Ia and core-collapse supernovae: after light curve and template-matching requirements, we estimate a background of just two events. Finally, more broadly, we stress that future transient surveys should consider how to optimize their search strategies to improve their detection efficiency and to consider similar analyses for GW follow-up programs.« less

Remembrance of Things Past

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Heckel, Robert V.; Heckel, Nancy W.

1976-01-01

An attempt was undertaken to demonstrate a relationship between earliest memories and a perception of significant future events. Relevance here was in the role that early memories play in the theoretical bases and treatment processes of all dynamically oriented therapies. (Author/RK)

Increasing the Operational Value of Event Messages

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Li, Zhenping; Savkli, Cetin; Smith, Dan

2003-01-01

Assessing the health of a space mission has traditionally been performed using telemetry analysis tools. Parameter values are compared to known operational limits and are plotted over various time periods. This presentation begins with the notion that there is an incredible amount of untapped information contained within the mission s event message logs. Through creative advancements in message handling tools, the event message logs can be used to better assess spacecraft and ground system status and to highlight and report on conditions not readily apparent when messages are evaluated one-at-a-time during a real-time pass. Work in this area is being funded as part of a larger NASA effort at the Goddard Space Flight Center to create component-based, middleware-based, standards-based general purpose ground system architecture referred to as GMSEC - the GSFC Mission Services Evolution Center. The new capabilities and operational concepts for event display, event data analyses and data mining are being developed by Lockheed Martin and the new subsystem has been named GREAT - the GMSEC Reusable Event Analysis Toolkit. Planned for use on existing and future missions, GREAT has the potential to increase operational efficiency in areas of problem detection and analysis, general status reporting, and real-time situational awareness.

An Oracle-based event index for ATLAS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gallas, E. J.; Dimitrov, G.; Vasileva, P.; Baranowski, Z.; Canali, L.; Dumitru, A.; Formica, A.; ATLAS Collaboration

2017-10-01

The ATLAS Eventlndex System has amassed a set of key quantities for a large number of ATLAS events into a Hadoop based infrastructure for the purpose of providing the experiment with a number of event-wise services. Collecting this data in one place provides the opportunity to investigate various storage formats and technologies and assess which best serve the various use cases as well as consider what other benefits alternative storage systems provide. In this presentation we describe how the data are imported into an Oracle RDBMS (relational database management system), the services we have built based on this architecture, and our experience with it. We’ve indexed about 26 billion real data events thus far and have designed the system to accommodate future data which has expected rates of 5 and 20 billion events per year. We have found this system offers outstanding performance for some fundamental use cases. In addition, profiting from the co-location of this data with other complementary metadata in ATLAS, the system has been easily extended to perform essential assessments of data integrity and completeness and to identify event duplication, including at what step in processing the duplication occurred.

The Development and Implementation of Cognitive Aids for Critical Events in Pediatric Anesthesia: The Society for Pediatric Anesthesia Critical Events Checklists.

PubMed

Clebone, Anna; Burian, Barbara K; Watkins, Scott C; Gálvez, Jorge A; Lockman, Justin L; Heitmiller, Eugenie S

2017-03-01

Cognitive aids such as checklists are commonly used in modern operating rooms for routine processes, and the use of such aids may be even more important during critical events. The Quality and Safety Committee of the Society for Pediatric Anesthesia (SPA) has developed a set of critical-event checklists and cognitive aids designed for 3 purposes: (1) as a repository of the latest evidence-based and expert opinion-based information to guide response and management of critical events, (2) as a source of just-in-time information during critical events, and (3) as a method to facilitate a shared understanding of required actions among team members during a critical event. Committee members, who represented children's hospitals from across the nation, used the recent literature and established guidelines (where available) and incorporated the expertise of colleagues at their institutions to develop these checklists, which included relevant factors to consider and steps to take in response to critical events. Human factors principles were incorporated to enhance checklist usability, facilitate error-free accomplishment, and ensure a common approach to checklist layout, formatting, structure, and design.The checklists were made available in multiple formats: a PDF version for easy printing, a mobile application, and at some institutions, a Web-based application using the anesthesia information management system. After the checklists were created, training commenced, and plans for validation were begun. User training is essential for successful implementation and should ideally include explanation of the organization of the checklists; familiarization of users with the layout, structure, and formatting of the checklists; coaching in how to use the checklists in a team environment; reviewing of the items; and simulation of checklist use. Because of the rare and unpredictable nature of critical events, clinical trials that use crisis checklists are difficult to conduct; however, recent and future simulation studies with adult checklists provide a promising avenue for future validation of the SPA checklists. This article will review the developmental steps in producing the SPA crisis checklists, including creation of content, incorporation of human factors elements, and validation in simulation. Critical-events checklists have the potential to improve patient care during emergency events, and it is hoped that incorporating the elements presented in this article will aid in successful implementation of these essential cognitive aids.

Modeling the Effects of Drought Events on Forest Ecosystem Functioning Historically and Under Scenarios of Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ren, J.; Hanan, E. J.; Kolden, C.; Abatzoglou, J. T.; Tague, C.; Liu, M.; Adam, J. C.

2017-12-01

Drought events have been increasing across the western United States in recent years. Many studies have shown that, in the context of climate change, droughts will continue to be stronger, more frequent, and prolonged in the future. However, the response of forest ecosystems to droughts, particularly multi-year droughts, is not well understood. The objectives of this study are to examine how drought events of varying characteristics (e.g. intensity, duration, frequency, etc.) have affected the functioning of forest ecosystems historically, and how changing drought characteristics (including multi-year droughts) may affect forest functioning in a future climate. We utilize the Regional Hydro-Ecological Simulation System (RHESSys) to simulate impacts of both historical droughts and scenarios of future droughts on forest ecosystems. RHESSys is a spatially-distributed and process-based model that captures the interactions between coupled biogeochemical and hydrologic cycles at catchment scales. Here our case study is the Trail Creek catchment of the Big Wood River basin in Idaho, the Northwestern USA. For historical simulations, we use the gridded meteorological data of 1979 to 2016; for future climate scenarios, we utilize downscaled data from GCMs that have been demonstrated to capture drought events in the Northwest of the USA. From these climate projections, we identify various types of drought in intensity and duration, including multi-year drought events. We evaluate the following responses of ecosystems to these events: 1) evapotranspiration and streamflow; 2) gross primary productivity; 3) the post-drought recovery of plant biomass; and 4) the forest functioning and recovery after multi-year droughts. This research is part of an integration project to examine the roles of drought, insect outbreak, and forest management activities on wildfire activity and its impacts. This project will provide improved information for forest managers and communities in the wild urban interface to adapt to climate change.

Event coincidence analysis for quantifying statistical interrelationships between event time series. On the role of flood events as triggers of epidemic outbreaks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Donges, J. F.; Schleussner, C.-F.; Siegmund, J. F.; Donner, R. V.

2016-05-01

Studying event time series is a powerful approach for analyzing the dynamics of complex dynamical systems in many fields of science. In this paper, we describe the method of event coincidence analysis to provide a framework for quantifying the strength, directionality and time lag of statistical interrelationships between event series. Event coincidence analysis allows to formulate and test null hypotheses on the origin of the observed interrelationships including tests based on Poisson processes or, more generally, stochastic point processes with a prescribed inter-event time distribution and other higher-order properties. Applying the framework to country-level observational data yields evidence that flood events have acted as triggers of epidemic outbreaks globally since the 1950s. Facing projected future changes in the statistics of climatic extreme events, statistical techniques such as event coincidence analysis will be relevant for investigating the impacts of anthropogenic climate change on human societies and ecosystems worldwide.

Factors Affecting Medial Temporal Lobe Engagement for Past and Future Episodic Events: An ALE Meta-Analysis of Neuroimaging Studies

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Viard, Armelle; Desgranges, Beatrice; Eustache, Francis; Piolino, Pascale

2012-01-01

Remembering the past and envisioning the future are at the core of one's sense of identity. Neuroimaging studies investigating the neural substrates underlying past and future episodic events have been growing in number. However, the experimental paradigms used to select and elicit episodic events vary greatly, leading to disparate results,…

Developmental and Cognitive Perspectives on Humans' Sense of the Times of Past and Future Events

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Friedman, W.J.

2005-01-01

Mental time travel in human adults includes a sense of when past events occurred and future events are expected to occur. Studies with adults and children reveal that a number of distinct psychological processes contribute to a temporally differentiated sense of the past and future. Adults possess representations of multiple time patterns, and…

Robust Engineering Designs for Infrastructure Adaptation to a Changing Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samaras, C.; Cook, L.

2015-12-01

Infrastructure systems are expected to be functional, durable and safe over long service lives - 50 to over 100 years. Observations and models of climate science show that greenhouse gas emissions resulting from human activities have changed climate, weather and extreme events. Projections of future changes (albeit with uncertainties caused by inadequacies of current climate/weather models) can be made based on scenarios for future emissions, but actual future emissions are themselves uncertain. Most current engineering standards and practices for infrastructure assume that the probabilities of future extreme climate and weather events will match those of the past. Climate science shows that this assumption is invalid, but is unable, at present, to define these probabilities over the service lives of existing and new infrastructure systems. Engineering designs, plans, and institutions and regulations will need to be adaptable for a range of future conditions (conditions of climate, weather and extreme events, as well as changing societal demands for infrastructure services). For their current and future projects, engineers should: Involve all stakeholders (owners, financers, insurance, regulators, affected public, climate/weather scientists, etc.) in key decisions; Use low regret, adaptive strategies, such as robust decision making and the observational method, comply with relevant standards and regulations, and exceed their requirements where appropriate; Publish design studies and performance/failure investigations to extend the body of knowledge for advancement of practice. The engineering community should conduct observational and modeling research with climate/weather/social scientists and the concerned communities and account rationally for climate change in revised engineering standards and codes. This presentation presents initial research on decisionmaking under uncertainty for climate resilient infrastructure design.

Automatic optimism: the affective basis of judgments about the likelihood of future events.

PubMed

Lench, Heather C

2009-05-01

People generally judge that the future will be consistent with their desires, but the reason for this desirability bias is unclear. This investigation examined whether affective reactions associated with future events are the mechanism through which desires influence likelihood judgments. In 4 studies, affective reactions were manipulated for initially neutral events. Compared with a neutral condition, events associated with positive reactions were judged as likely to occur, and events associated with negative reactions were judged as unlikely to occur. Desirability biases were reduced when participants could misattribute affective reactions to a source other than future events, and the relationship between affective reactions and judgments was influenced when approach and avoidance motivations were independently manipulated. Together, these findings demonstrate that positive and negative affective reactions to potential events cause the desirability bias in likelihood judgments and suggest that this effect occurs because of a tendency to approach positive possibilities and avoid negative possibilities. (c) 2009 APA, all rights reserved.

A Framework of Simple Event Detection in Surveillance Video

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Weiguang; Zhang, Yafei; Lu, Jianjiang; Tian, Yulong; Wang, Jiabao

Video surveillance is playing more and more important role in people's social life. Real-time alerting of threaten events and searching interesting content in stored large scale video footage needs human operator to pay full attention on monitor for long time. The labor intensive mode has limit the effectiveness and efficiency of the system. A framework of simple event detection is presented advance the automation of video surveillance. An improved inner key point matching approach is used to compensate motion of background in real-time; frame difference are used to detect foreground; HOG based classifiers are used to classify foreground object into people and car; mean-shift is used to tracking the recognized objects. Events are detected based on predefined rules. The maturity of the algorithms guarantee the robustness of the framework, and the improved approach and the easily checked rules enable the framework to work in real-time. Future works to be done are also discussed.

Personal sleep pattern visualization using sequence-based kernel self-organizing map on sound data.

PubMed

Wu, Hongle; Kato, Takafumi; Yamada, Tomomi; Numao, Masayuki; Fukui, Ken-Ichi

2017-07-01

We propose a method to discover sleep patterns via clustering of sound events recorded during sleep. The proposed method extends the conventional self-organizing map algorithm by kernelization and sequence-based technologies to obtain a fine-grained map that visualizes the distribution and changes of sleep-related events. We introduced features widely applied in sound processing and popular kernel functions to the proposed method to evaluate and compare performance. The proposed method provides a new aspect of sleep monitoring because the results demonstrate that sound events can be directly correlated to an individual's sleep patterns. In addition, by visualizing the transition of cluster dynamics, sleep-related sound events were found to relate to the various stages of sleep. Therefore, these results empirically warrant future study into the assessment of personal sleep quality using sound data. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Long-term comparison of the climate extremes variability in different climate types located in coastal and inland regions of Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghiami-Shamami, Fereshteh; Sabziparvar, Ali Akbar; Shinoda, Seirou

2018-06-01

The present study examined annually and seasonally trends in climate-based and location-based indices after detection of artificial change points and application of homogenization. Thirteen temperature and eight precipitation indices were generated at 27 meteorological stations over Iran during 1961-2012. The Mann-Kendall test and Sen's slope estimator were applied for trend detection. Results revealed that almost all indices based on minimum temperature followed warmer conditions. Indicators based on minimum temperature showed less consistency with more cold and less warm events. Climate-based results for all extremes indicated semi-arid climate had the most warming events. Moreover, based on location-based results, inland areas showed the most signs of warming. Indices based on precipitation exhibited a negative trend in warm seasons, with the most changes in coastal areas and inland, respectively. Results provided evidence of warming and drying since the 1990s. Changes in precipitation indices were much weaker and less spatially coherent. Summer was found to be the most sensitive season, in comparison with winter. For arid and semi-arid regions, by increasing the latitude, less warm events occurred, while increasing the longitude led to more warming events. Overall, Iran is dominated by a significant increase in warm events, especially minimum temperature-based indices (nighttime). This result, in addition to fewer precipitation events, suggests a generally dryer regime for the future, which is more evident in the warm season of semi-arid sites. The results could provide beneficial references for water resources and eco-environmental policymakers.

Medial Temporal Lobe Damage Causes Deficits in Episodic Memory and Episodic Future Thinking Not Attributable to Deficits in Narrative Construction

PubMed Central

Race, Elizabeth; Keane, Margaret M.; Verfaellie, Mieke

2015-01-01

The medial temporal lobe (MTL) makes critical contributions to episodic memory, but its contributions to episodic future thinking remain a matter of debate. By one view, imagining future events relies on MTL mechanisms that also support memory for past events. Alternatively, it has recently been suggested that future thinking is independent of MTL-mediated processes and can be supported by regions outside the MTL. The current study investigated the nature and necessity of MTL involvement in imagining the future and tested the novel hypothesis that the MTL contributes to future thinking by supporting online binding processes related to narrative construction. Human amnesic patients with well-characterized MTL damage and healthy controls constructed narratives about (a) future events, (b) past events, and (c) visually-presented pictures. While all three tasks place similar demands on narrative construction, only the past and future conditions require memory/future thinking to mentally generate relevant narrative information. Patients produced impoverished descriptions of both past and future events but were unimpaired at producing detailed picture narratives. In addition, future-thinking performance positively correlated with episodic memory performance but did not correlate with picture narrative performance. Finally, future-thinking impairments were present when MTL lesions were restricted to the hippocampus and did not depend on the presence of neural damage outside the MTL. These results indicate that the ability to generate and maintain a detailed narrative is preserved in amnesia and suggest that a common MTL mechanism supports both episodic memory and episodic future thinking. PMID:21753003

Medial temporal lobe damage causes deficits in episodic memory and episodic future thinking not attributable to deficits in narrative construction.

PubMed

Race, Elizabeth; Keane, Margaret M; Verfaellie, Mieke

2011-07-13

The medial temporal lobe (MTL) makes critical contributions to episodic memory, but its contributions to episodic future thinking remain a matter of debate. By one view, imagining future events relies on MTL mechanisms that also support memory for past events. Alternatively, it has recently been suggested that future thinking is independent of MTL-mediated processes and can be supported by regions outside the MTL. The current study investigated the nature and necessity of MTL involvement in imagining the future and tested the novel hypothesis that the MTL contributes to future thinking by supporting online binding processes related to narrative construction. Human amnesic patients with well characterized MTL damage and healthy controls constructed narratives about (1) future events, (2) past events, and (3) visually presented pictures. While all three tasks place similar demands on narrative construction, only the past and future conditions require memory/future thinking to mentally generate relevant narrative information. Patients produced impoverished descriptions of both past and future events but were unimpaired at producing detailed picture narratives. In addition, future-thinking performance positively correlated with episodic memory performance but did not correlate with picture narrative performance. Finally, future-thinking impairments were present when MTL lesions were restricted to the hippocampus and did not depend on the presence of neural damage outside the MTL. These results indicate that the ability to generate and maintain a detailed narrative is preserved in amnesia and suggest that a common MTL mechanism supports both episodic memory and episodic future thinking.

Abdominal aortic atherosclerosis at MR imaging is associated with cardiovascular events: the Dallas heart study.

PubMed

Maroules, Christopher D; Rosero, Eric; Ayers, Colby; Peshock, Ronald M; Khera, Amit

2013-10-01

To determine the value of two abdominal aortic atherosclerosis measurements at magnetic resonance (MR) imaging for predicting future cardiovascular events. This study was approved by the institutional review board and complied with HIPAA regulations. The study consisted of 2122 participants from the multiethnic, population-based Dallas Heart Study who underwent abdominal aortic MR imaging at 1.5 T. Aortic atherosclerosis was measured by quantifying mean aortic wall thickness (MAWT) and aortic plaque burden. Participants were monitored for cardiovascular death, nonfatal cardiac events, and nonfatal extracardiac vascular events over a mean period of 7.8 years ± 1.5 (standard deviation [SD]). Cox proportional hazards regression was used to assess independent associations of aortic atherosclerosis and cardiovascular events. Increasing MAWT was positively associated with male sex (odds ratio, 3.66; P < .0001), current smoking (odds ratio, 2.53; P < .0001), 10-year increase in age (odds ratio, 2.24; P < .0001), and hypertension (odds ratio, 1.66; P = .0001). A total of 143 participants (6.7%) experienced a cardiovascular event. MAWT conferred an increased risk for composite events (hazard ratio, 1.28 per 1 SD; P = .001). Aortic plaque was not associated with increased risk for composite events. Increasing MAWT and aortic plaque burden both conferred an increased risk for nonfatal extracardiac events (hazard ratio of 1.52 per 1 SD [P < .001] and hazard ratio of 1.46 per 1 SD [P = .03], respectively). MR imaging measures of aortic atherosclerosis are predictive of future adverse cardiovascular events. © RSNA, 2013.

Shared cognitive processes underlying past and future thinking: the impact of imagery and concurrent task demands on event specificity.

PubMed

Anderson, Rachel J; Dewhurst, Stephen A; Nash, Robert A

2012-03-01

Recent literature has argued that whereas remembering the past and imagining the future make use of shared cognitive substrates, simulating future events places heavier demands on executive resources. These propositions were explored in 3 experiments comparing the impact of imagery and concurrent task demands on speed and accuracy of past event retrieval and future event simulation. Results provide support for the suggestion that both past and future episodes can be constructed through 2 mechanisms: a noneffortful "direct" pathway and a controlled, effortful "generative" pathway. However, limited evidence emerged for the suggestion that simulating of future, compared with retrieving past, episodes places heavier demands on executive resources; only under certain conditions did it emerge as a more error prone and lengthier process. The findings are discussed in terms of how retrieval and simulation make use of the same cognitive substrates in subtly different ways. 2012 APA, all rights reserved

Educating Future Leaders of the Sport-Based Youth Development Field

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Whitley, Meredith A.; McGarry, Jennifer Bruening; Martinek, Thomas; Mercier, Kevin; Quinlan, Melissa

2017-01-01

In recent years, a substantial surge has occurred in the number of initiatives, events and organizations focused on using sport as a tool for development, peacebuilding and humanitarian efforts. This has created a growing need for educated leaders in the sport-based youth development field as the job market in this field continues to expand. The…

Detection of VHF lightning from GPS orbit

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Suszcynsky, D. M.

2003-01-01

Satellite-based VHF' lightning detection is characterized at GPS orbit by using a VHF receiver system recently launched on the GPS SVN 54 satellite. Collected lightning triggers consist of Narrow Bipolar Events (80%) and strong negative return strokes (20%). The results are used to evaluate the performance of a future GPS-satellite-based VHF global lightning monitor.

Considering the role of semantic memory in episodic future thinking: evidence from semantic dementia.

PubMed

Irish, Muireann; Addis, Donna Rose; Hodges, John R; Piguet, Olivier

2012-07-01

Semantic dementia is a progressive neurodegenerative condition characterized by the profound and amodal loss of semantic memory in the context of relatively preserved episodic memory. In contrast, patients with Alzheimer's disease typically display impairments in episodic memory, but with semantic deficits of a much lesser magnitude than in semantic dementia. Our understanding of episodic memory retrieval in these cohorts has greatly increased over the last decade, however, we know relatively little regarding the ability of these patients to imagine and describe possible future events, and whether episodic future thinking is mediated by divergent neural substrates contingent on dementia subtype. Here, we explored episodic future thinking in patients with semantic dementia (n=11) and Alzheimer's disease (n=11), in comparison with healthy control participants (n=10). Participants completed a battery of tests designed to probe episodic and semantic thinking across past and future conditions, as well as standardized tests of episodic and semantic memory. Further, all participants underwent magnetic resonance imaging. Despite their relatively intact episodic retrieval for recent past events, the semantic dementia cohort showed significant impairments for episodic future thinking. In contrast, the group with Alzheimer's disease showed parallel deficits across past and future episodic conditions. Voxel-based morphometry analyses confirmed that atrophy in the left inferior temporal gyrus and bilateral temporal poles, regions strongly implicated in semantic memory, correlated significantly with deficits in episodic future thinking in semantic dementia. Conversely, episodic future thinking performance in Alzheimer's disease correlated with atrophy in regions associated with episodic memory, namely the posterior cingulate, parahippocampal gyrus and frontal pole. These distinct neuroanatomical substrates contingent on dementia group were further qualified by correlational analyses that confirmed the relation between semantic memory deficits and episodic future thinking in semantic dementia, in contrast with the role of episodic memory deficits and episodic future thinking in Alzheimer's disease. Our findings demonstrate that semantic knowledge is critical for the construction of novel future events, providing the necessary scaffolding into which episodic details can be integrated. Further research is necessary to elucidate the precise contribution of semantic memory to future thinking, and to explore how deficits in self-projection manifest on behavioural and social levels in different dementia subtypes.

A modeling tool to evaluate regional coral reef responses to changes in climate and ocean chemistry

USGS Publications Warehouse

Buddemeier, R.W.; Jokiel, P.L.; Zimmerman, K.M.; Lane, D.R.; Carey, J.M.; Bohling, Geoffrey C.; Martinich, J.A.

2008-01-01

We developed a spreadsheet-based model for the use of managers, conservationists, and biologists for projecting the effects of climate change on coral reefs at local-to-regional scales. The COMBO (Coral Mortality and Bleaching Output) model calculates the impacts to coral reefs from changes in average SST and CO2 concentrations, and from high temperature mortality (bleaching) events. The model uses a probabilistic assessment of the frequency of high temperature events under a future climate to address scientific uncertainties about potential adverse effects. COMBO offers data libraries and default factors for three selected regions (Hawai'i, Great Barrier Reef, and Caribbean), but it is structured with user-selectable parameter values and data input options, making possible modifications to reflect local conditions or to incorporate local expertise. Preliminary results from sensitivity analyses and simulation examples for Hawai'i demonstrate the relative importance of high temperature events, increased average temperature, and increased CO2 concentration on the future status of coral reefs; Illustrate significant interactions among variables; and allow comparisons of past environmental history with future predictions. ?? 2008, by the American Society of Limnology and Oceanugraphy, Inc.

Eruptive history of the Dieng Mountains region, central Java, and potential hazards from future eruptions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Miller, C. Dan; Sushyar, R.; ,; Hamidi, S.

1983-01-01

The Dieng Mountains region consists of a complex of late Quaternary to recent volcanic stratocones, parasitic vents, and explosion craters. Six age groups of volcanic centers, eruptive products, and explosion craters are recognized in the region based on their morphology, degree of dissection, stratigraphic relationships, and degree of weathering. These features range in age from tens of thousands of years to events that have occurred this century. No magmatic eruptions have occurred in the Dieng Mountains region for at least several thousand years; volcanic activity during this time interval has consisted of phreatic eruptions and non-explosive hydrothermal activity. If future volcanic events are similar to those of the last few thousand years, they will consist of phreatic eruptions, associated small hot mudflows, emission of suffocating gases, and hydrothermal activity. Future phreatic eruptions may follow, or accompany, periods of increased earthquake activity; the epicenters for the seismicity may suggest where eruptive activity will occur. Under such circumstances, the populace within several kilometers of a potential eruption site should be warned of a possible eruption, given instructions about what to do in the event of an eruption, or temporarily evacuated to a safer location.

Bayesian regression model for recurrent event data with event-varying covariate effects and event effect.

PubMed

Lin, Li-An; Luo, Sheng; Davis, Barry R

2018-01-01

In the course of hypertension, cardiovascular disease events (e.g., stroke, heart failure) occur frequently and recurrently. The scientific interest in such study may lie in the estimation of treatment effect while accounting for the correlation among event times. The correlation among recurrent event times come from two sources: subject-specific heterogeneity (e.g., varied lifestyles, genetic variations, and other unmeasurable effects) and event dependence (i.e., event incidences may change the risk of future recurrent events). Moreover, event incidences may change the disease progression so that there may exist event-varying covariate effects (the covariate effects may change after each event) and event effect (the effect of prior events on the future events). In this article, we propose a Bayesian regression model that not only accommodates correlation among recurrent events from both sources, but also explicitly characterizes the event-varying covariate effects and event effect. This model is especially useful in quantifying how the incidences of events change the effects of covariates and risk of future events. We compare the proposed model with several commonly used recurrent event models and apply our model to the motivating lipid-lowering trial (LLT) component of the Antihypertensive and Lipid-Lowering Treatment to Prevent Heart Attack Trial (ALLHAT) (ALLHAT-LLT).

Bayesian regression model for recurrent event data with event-varying covariate effects and event effect

PubMed Central

Lin, Li-An; Luo, Sheng; Davis, Barry R.

2017-01-01

In the course of hypertension, cardiovascular disease events (e.g., stroke, heart failure) occur frequently and recurrently. The scientific interest in such study may lie in the estimation of treatment effect while accounting for the correlation among event times. The correlation among recurrent event times come from two sources: subject-specific heterogeneity (e.g., varied lifestyles, genetic variations, and other unmeasurable effects) and event dependence (i.e., event incidences may change the risk of future recurrent events). Moreover, event incidences may change the disease progression so that there may exist event-varying covariate effects (the covariate effects may change after each event) and event effect (the effect of prior events on the future events). In this article, we propose a Bayesian regression model that not only accommodates correlation among recurrent events from both sources, but also explicitly characterizes the event-varying covariate effects and event effect. This model is especially useful in quantifying how the incidences of events change the effects of covariates and risk of future events. We compare the proposed model with several commonly used recurrent event models and apply our model to the motivating lipid-lowering trial (LLT) component of the Antihypertensive and Lipid-Lowering Treatment to Prevent Heart Attack Trial (ALLHAT) (ALLHAT-LLT). PMID:29755162

Do future thoughts reflect personal goals? Current concerns and mental time travel into the past and future.

PubMed

Cole, Scott N; Berntsen, Dorthe

2016-01-01

Our overriding hypothesis was that future thinking would be linked with goals to a greater extent than memories; conceptualizing goals as current concerns (i.e., uncompleted personal goals). We also hypothesized that current-concern-related events would differ from non-current-concern-related events on a set of phenomenological characteristics. We report novel data from a study examining involuntary and voluntary mental time travel using an adapted laboratory paradigm. Specifically, after autobiographical memories or future thoughts were elicited (between participants) in an involuntary and voluntary retrieval mode (within participants), participants self-generated five current concerns and decided whether each event was relevant or not to their current concerns. Consistent with our hypothesis, compared with memories, a larger percentage of involuntary and voluntary future thoughts reflected current concerns. Furthermore, events related to current concerns differed from non-concern-related events on a range of cognitive, representational, and affective phenomenological measures. These effects were consistent across temporal direction. In general, our results agree with the proposition that involuntary and voluntary future thinking is important for goal-directed cognition and behaviour.

A nonparametric test for Markovianity in the illness-death model.

PubMed

Rodríguez-Girondo, Mar; de Uña-Álvarez, Jacobo

2012-12-30

Multistate models are useful tools for modeling disease progression when survival is the main outcome, but several intermediate events of interest are observed during the follow-up time. The illness-death model is a special multistate model with important applications in the biomedical literature. It provides a suitable representation of the individual's history when a unique intermediate event can be experienced before the main event of interest. Nonparametric estimation of transition probabilities in this and other multistate models is usually performed through the Aalen-Johansen estimator under a Markov assumption. The Markov assumption claims that given the present state, the future evolution of the illness is independent of the states previously visited and the transition times among them. However, this assumption fails in some applications, leading to inconsistent estimates. In this paper, we provide a new approach for testing Markovianity in the illness-death model. The new method is based on measuring the future-past association along time. This results in a detailed inspection of the process, which often reveals a non-Markovian behavior with different trends in the association measure. A test of significance for zero future-past association at each time point is introduced, and a significance trace is proposed accordingly. Besides, we propose a global test for Markovianity based on a supremum-type test statistic. The finite sample performance of the test is investigated through simulations. We illustrate the new method through the analysis of two biomedical data analysis. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Prospective memory: A comparative perspective

PubMed Central

Crystal, Jonathon D.; Wilson, A. George

2014-01-01

Prospective memory consists of forming a representation of a future action, temporarily storing that representation in memory, and retrieving it at a future time point. Here we review the recent development of animal models of prospective memory. We review experiments using rats that focus on the development of time-based and event-based prospective memory. Next, we review a number of prospective-memory approaches that have been used with a variety of non-human primates. Finally, we review selected approaches from the human literature on prospective memory to identify targets for development of animal models of prospective memory. PMID:25101562

Systems Operations Studies for Automated Guideway Transit Systems : Discrete Event Simulation Model User's Manual.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1982-06-01

In order to examine specific Automated Guideway Transit (AGT) developments and concepts, and to build a better knowledge base for future decision-making, the Urban Mass Transportation Administration (UMTA) undertook a new program of studies and techn...

Expressed Likelihood as Motivator: Creating Value through Engaging What’s Real

PubMed Central

Higgins, E. Tory; Franks, Becca; Pavarini, Dana; Sehnert, Steen; Manley, Katie

2012-01-01

Our research tested two predictions regarding how likelihood can have motivational effects as a function of how a probability is expressed. We predicted that describing the probability of a future event that could be either A or B using the language of high likelihood (“80% A”) rather than low likelihood (“20% B”), i.e., high rather than low expressed likelihood, would make a present activity more real and engaging, as long as the future event had properties relevant to the present activity. We also predicted that strengthening engagement from the high (vs. low) expressed likelihood of a future event would intensify the value of present positive and negative objects (in opposite directions). Both predictions were supported. There was also evidence that this intensification effect from expressed likelihood was independent of the actual probability or valence of the future event. What mattered was whether high versus low likelihood language was used to describe the future event. PMID:23940411

Temporal distance and person memory: thinking about the future changes memory for the past.

PubMed

Wyer, Natalie A; Perfect, Timothy J; Pahl, Sabine

2010-06-01

Psychological distance has been shown to influence how people construe an event such that greater distance produces high-level construal (characterized by global or holistic processing) and lesser distance produces low-level construal (characterized by detailed or feature-based processing). The present research tested the hypothesis that construal level has carryover effects on how information about an event is retrieved from memory. Two experiments manipulated temporal distance and found that greater distance (high-level construal) improves face recognition and increases retrieval of the abstract features of an event, whereas lesser distance (low-level construal) impairs face recognition and increases retrieval of the concrete details of an event. The findings have implications for transfer-inappropriate processing accounts of face recognition and event memory, and suggest potential applications in forensic settings.

Integrated Modeling Approach for the Development of Climate-Informed, Actionable Information

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Judi, David R.; Rakowski, Cynthia L.; Waichler, Scott R.

Flooding is a prevalent natural disaster with both short and long-term social, economic, and infrastructure impacts. Changes in intensity and frequency of precipitation (including rain, snow, and rain on snow) events create challenges for the planning and management of resilient infrastructure and communities. While there is general acknowledgement that new infrastructure design should account for future climate change, no clear methods or actionable information is available to community planners and designers to ensure resilient design considering an uncertain climate future. This research used climate projections to drive high-resolution hydrology and flood models to evaluate social, economic, and infrastructure resilience formore » the Snohomish Watershed, WA, U.S.A. The proposed model chain has been calibrated and validated. Based on the established model chain, the peaks of precipitation and streamflows were found to shift from spring and summer to earlier winter season. The nonstationarity of peak discharges was discovered with more frequent and severe flood risks projected. The peak discharges were also projected to decrease for a certain period in the near future, which might be due to the reduced rain-on-snow events. This research was expected to provide a clear method for the incorporation of climate science in flood resilience analysis and to also provide actionable information relative to the frequency and intensity of future precipitation events.« less

The Projection of Space Radiation Environments with a Solar Cycle Statistical Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kim, Myung-Hee; Cucinotta, Francis A.; Wilson, John W.

2006-01-01

A solar cycle statistical model has been developed to project sunspot numbers which represent the variations in the space radiation environment. The resultant projection of sunspot numbers in near future were coupled to space-related quantities of interest in radiation protection, such as the galactic cosmic radiation (GCR) deceleration potential (f) and the mean occurrence frequency of solar particle event (SPE). Future GCR fluxes have been derived from a predictive model, in which GCR temporal dependence represented by f was derived from GCR flux and ground-based Climax neutron monitor rate measurements over the last four decades. Results showed that the point dose equivalent inside a typical spacecraft in interplanetary radiation fields was influenced by solar modulation up to a factor of three. One important characteristic of sporadic SPEs is their mean frequency of occurrence, which is dependent on solar activity. Projections of future mean frequency of SPE occurrence were estimated from a power law function of sunspot number. Furthermore, the cumulative probabilities of SPE during short-period missions were defined with the continuous database of proton fluences of SPE. The analytic representation of energy spectra of SPE was constructed by the Weibull distribution for different event sizes. The representative exposure level at each event size was estimated for the guideline of protection systems for astronauts during future space exploration missions.

Large-Scale Test of Dynamic Correlation Processors: Implications for Correlation-Based Seismic Pipelines

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dodge, D. A.; Harris, D. B.

Correlation detectors are of considerable interest to the seismic monitoring communities because they offer reduced detection thresholds and combine detection, location and identification functions into a single operation. They appear to be ideal for applications requiring screening of frequent repeating events. However, questions remain about how broadly empirical correlation methods are applicable. We describe the effectiveness of banks of correlation detectors in a system that combines traditional power detectors with correlation detectors in terms of efficiency, which we define to be the fraction of events detected by the correlators. This paper elaborates and extends the concept of a dynamic correlationmore » detection framework – a system which autonomously creates correlation detectors from event waveforms detected by power detectors; and reports observed performance on a network of arrays in terms of efficiency. We performed a large scale test of dynamic correlation processors on an 11 terabyte global dataset using 25 arrays in the single frequency band 1-3 Hz. The system found over 3.2 million unique signals and produced 459,747 screened detections. A very satisfying result is that, on average, efficiency grows with time and, after nearly 16 years of operation, exceeds 47% for events observed over all distance ranges and approaches 70% for near regional and 90% for local events. This observation suggests that future pipeline architectures should make extensive use of correlation detectors, principally for decluttering observations of local and near-regional events. Our results also suggest that future operations based on correlation detection will require commodity large-scale computing infrastructure, since the numbers of correlators in an autonomous system can grow into the hundreds of thousands.« less

Large-Scale Test of Dynamic Correlation Processors: Implications for Correlation-Based Seismic Pipelines

DOE PAGES

Dodge, D. A.; Harris, D. B.

2016-03-15

Correlation detectors are of considerable interest to the seismic monitoring communities because they offer reduced detection thresholds and combine detection, location and identification functions into a single operation. They appear to be ideal for applications requiring screening of frequent repeating events. However, questions remain about how broadly empirical correlation methods are applicable. We describe the effectiveness of banks of correlation detectors in a system that combines traditional power detectors with correlation detectors in terms of efficiency, which we define to be the fraction of events detected by the correlators. This paper elaborates and extends the concept of a dynamic correlationmore » detection framework – a system which autonomously creates correlation detectors from event waveforms detected by power detectors; and reports observed performance on a network of arrays in terms of efficiency. We performed a large scale test of dynamic correlation processors on an 11 terabyte global dataset using 25 arrays in the single frequency band 1-3 Hz. The system found over 3.2 million unique signals and produced 459,747 screened detections. A very satisfying result is that, on average, efficiency grows with time and, after nearly 16 years of operation, exceeds 47% for events observed over all distance ranges and approaches 70% for near regional and 90% for local events. This observation suggests that future pipeline architectures should make extensive use of correlation detectors, principally for decluttering observations of local and near-regional events. Our results also suggest that future operations based on correlation detection will require commodity large-scale computing infrastructure, since the numbers of correlators in an autonomous system can grow into the hundreds of thousands.« less

Into the future with little past: exploring mental time travel in a patient with damage to the mammillary bodies/fornix.

PubMed

Tedder, Jacqui; Miller, Laurie; Tu, Sicong; Hornberger, Michael; Lah, Suncica

2016-02-01

Remembering the past and imaging the future are both manifestations of 'mental time travel'. These processes have been found to be impaired in patients with bilateral hippocampal lesions. Here, we examined the question of whether future thinking is affected by other Papez circuit lesions, namely: damage to the mammillary bodies/fornix. Case (SL) was a 43-year-old woman who developed dense anterograde and retrograde amnesia suddenly, as a result of Wernicke-Korsakoff's syndrome. A region of interest volumetric Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) analysis was performed. We assessed past and future thinking in SL and 11 control subjects of similar age and education with the adapted Autobiographical Interview (AI). Participants also completed a battery of neuropsychological tests. Volumetric MRI analyses revealed severely reduced fornix and mammillary body volumes, but intact hippocampi. SL showed substantial, albeit temporally graded retrograde memory deficits on the adapted AI. Strikingly, whilst SL could not provide any specific details of events from the past two weeks or past two years and had impaired recall of events from her late 30s, her descriptions of potential future events were normal in number of event details and plausibility. This dissociation of past and future events' performance after mammillary body and fornix damage is at odds with the findings of the majority of patients with adult onset hippocampal amnesia. It suggests that these non-hippocampal regions of the Papez circuit are only critical for past event retrieval and not for the generation of possible future events.

Assessing the impacts of climate change on future water resources: a methodological approach based on equiratio CDF-matching and vine copula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pham, Minh Tu; Vernieuwe, Hilde; De Baets, Bernard; Verhoest, Niko E. C.

2016-04-01

In this study, the impacts of climate change on future river discharge are evaluated using equiratio CDF-matching and a stochastic copula-based evapotranspiration generator. In recent years, much effort has been dedicated to improve the performances of RCMs outputs, i.e. the downscaled precipitation and temperature, to use in regional studies. However, these outputs usually suffer from bias due to the fact that many important small-scale processes, e.g. the representations of clouds and convection, are not represented explicitly within the models. To solve this problem, several bias correction techniques are developed. In this study, an advanced quantile bias approach called equiratio cumulative distribution function matching (EQCDF) is applied for the outputs from three RCMs for central Belgium, i.e. daily precipitation, temperature and evapotranspiration, for the current (1961-1990) and future climate (2071-2100). The rescaled precipitation and temperature are then used to simulate evapotranspiration via a stochastic copula-based model in which the statistical dependence between evapotranspiration, temperature and precipitation is described by a three-dimensional vine copula. The simulated precipitation and stochastic evapotranspiration are then used to model discharge under present and future climate. To validate, the observations of daily precipitation, temperature and evapotranspiration during 1961 - 1990 in Uccle, Belgium are used. It is found that under current climate, the basic properties of discharge, e.g. mean and frequency distribution, are well modelled; however there is an overestimation of the extreme discharges with return periods higher than 10 years. For the future climate change, compared with historical events, a considerable increase of the discharge magnitude and the number of extreme events is estimated for the studied area in the time period of 2071-2100.

Digital disease detection: A systematic review of event-based internet biosurveillance systems.

PubMed

O'Shea, Jesse

2017-05-01

Internet access and usage has changed how people seek and report health information. Meanwhile,infectious diseases continue to threaten humanity. The analysis of Big Data, or vast digital data, presents an opportunity to improve disease surveillance and epidemic intelligence. Epidemic intelligence contains two components: indicator based and event-based. A relatively new surveillance type has emerged called event-based Internet biosurveillance systems. These systems use information on events impacting health from Internet sources, such as social media or news aggregates. These systems circumvent the limitations of traditional reporting systems by being inexpensive, transparent, and flexible. Yet, innovations and the functionality of these systems can change rapidly. To update the current state of knowledge on event-based Internet biosurveillance systems by identifying all systems, including current functionality, with hopes to aid decision makers with whether to incorporate new methods into comprehensive programmes of surveillance. A systematic review was performed through PubMed, Scopus, and Google Scholar databases, while also including grey literature and other publication types. 50 event-based Internet systems were identified, including an extraction of 15 attributes for each system, described in 99 articles. Each system uses different innovative technology and data sources to gather data, process, and disseminate data to detect infectious disease outbreaks. The review emphasises the importance of using both formal and informal sources for timely and accurate infectious disease outbreak surveillance, cataloguing all event-based Internet biosurveillance systems. By doing so, future researchers will be able to use this review as a library for referencing systems, with hopes of learning, building, and expanding Internet-based surveillance systems. Event-based Internet biosurveillance should act as an extension of traditional systems, to be utilised as an additional, supplemental data source to have a more comprehensive estimate of disease burden. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

West Coast atmospheric river climatology in CMIP5 climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Warner, M.; Mass, C.; Salathe, E. P.

2015-12-01

In recent years, there has been a flurry of research on how atmospheric river events (ARs) will respond to anthropogenic global warming. This study uses 10 CMIP5 RCP 8.5 climate models to focus on changes in AR frequency, seasonality, and synoptic conditions along the west coast of the United States and is a follow-up to previous work by the same authors (Warner et al. 2015) which investigated expected changes in AR intensity in the same region. There are only very slight changes in annual AR climatology from the end of the last century to the end of this century when considering the most extreme integrated water vapor transport (IVT) events (99th percentile). However, when evaluating by the number of future days exceeding a historical threshold, there are significant increases in extreme IVT events in all months, especially during months when the majority of events take place. The peaks in historical and future frequency occur in similar months given the amount of model variability. Extreme IVT events appear to be occurring slightly earlier in the season, particularly along the northern US coast, and these results are similar to other studies. Spatially, 10-model mean historical composites of IVT reveal canonical AR conditions. At locations farther south, there is less model agreement on the spatial extent and intensity of AR events; whereas farther north, the various models are in agreement. Composites of future events indicate very little spatial change from historical events. The location and orientation of AR events in the historical and future time periods are similar, and the upper-level winds change little over that time period (Warner et al. 2015). This suggests little change in synoptic conditions for approaching ARs. The future-historical difference plots highlight the largest changes expected in the future, namely increases in IVT intensity which are primarily associated with thermodynamic changes related to future integrated water vapor increases due to a warming atmosphere.

Climate change impacts on extreme events in the United States: an uncertainty analysis

EPA Science Inventory

Extreme weather and climate events, such as heat waves, droughts and severe precipitation events, have substantial impacts on ecosystems and the economy. However, future climate simulations display large uncertainty in mean changes. As a result, the uncertainty in future changes ...

Exclusive muon neutrino charged current pion-less topologies. ArgoNeuT results and future prospects in LAr TPC detectors

DOE PAGES

Palamara, Ornella

2016-12-29

Results from the analysis of charged current pion-less (CC 0-pion) muon neutrino events in argon collected by the ArgoNeuT experiment on the NuMI beam at Fermilab are presented and compared with predictions from Monte Carlo simulations. A novel analysis method, based on the reconstruction of exclusive topologies, fully exploiting the Liquid argon Time Projection Chamber (LAr TPC) technique capabilities, is used to analyze the events, characterized by the presence at the vertex of a leading muon track eventually accompanied by one or more highly ionizing tracks, and study nuclear effects in neutrino interactions on argon nuclei. Multiple protons accompanying themore » leading muon are visible in the ArgoNeuT events, and measured with a proton reconstruction threshold of 21 MeV kinetic energy. As a result, measurements of (anti-)neutrino CC 0-pion inclusive and exclusive cross sections on argon nuclei are reported. Prospects for future, larger mass LAr TPC detectors are discussed.« less

Rule-Selection and Action-Selection have a Shared Neuroanatomical Basis in the Human Prefrontal and Parietal Cortex

PubMed Central

Hughes, L.; Eckstein, D.; Owen, A.M.

2008-01-01

The human capacity for voluntary action is one of the major contributors to our success as a species. In addition to choosing actions themselves, we can also voluntarily choose behavioral codes or sets of rules that can guide future responses to events. Such rules have been proposed to be superordinate to actions in a cognitive hierarchy and mediated by distinct brain regions. We used event-related functional magnetic resonance imaging to study novel tasks of rule-based and voluntary action. We show that the voluntary selection of rules to govern future responses to events is associated with activation of similar regions of prefrontal and parietal cortex as the voluntary selection of an action itself. The results are discussed in terms of hierarchical models and the adaptive coding potential of prefrontal neurons and their contribution to a global workspace for nonautomatic tasks. These tasks include the choices we make about our behavior. PMID:18234684

Sharing the Past and Future among Adolescents and Their Parents

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shirai, Toshiaki; Higata, Atsuko

2016-01-01

This study explored how sharing past and future life events among late adolescents and their parents influenced the quality of their own time perspectives. Triads (N =104) of female students and their parents described three important life events from their past and future. The results showed that adolescents who shared past and future life events…

Hydrologic Modeling in the Kenai River Watershed using Event Based Calibration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wells, B.; Toniolo, H. A.; Stuefer, S. L.

2015-12-01

Understanding hydrologic changes is key for preparing for possible future scenarios. On the Kenai Peninsula in Alaska the yearly salmon runs provide a valuable stimulus to the economy. It is the focus of a large commercial fishing fleet, but also a prime tourist attraction. Modeling of anadromous waters provides a tool that assists in the prediction of future salmon run size. Beaver Creek, in Kenai, Alaska, is a lowlands stream that has been modeled using the Army Corps of Engineers event based modeling package HEC-HMS. With the use of historic precipitation and discharge data, the model was calibrated to observed discharge values. The hydrologic parameters were measured in the field or calculated, while soil parameters were estimated and adjusted during the calibration. With the calibrated parameter for HEC-HMS, discharge estimates can be used by other researches studying the area and help guide communities and officials to make better-educated decisions regarding the changing hydrology in the area and the tied economic drivers.

The impact of shifting vantage perspective when recalling and imagining positive events.

PubMed

Vella, Nicholas C; Moulds, Michelle L

2014-01-01

The vantage perspective from which memories are recalled influences their emotional impact. To date, however, the impact of vantage perspective on the emotions elicited by positive memories and images of positive future events has been minimally explored. We experimentally manipulated the vantage perspective from which a sample of undergraduate students (n =80) recalled positive memories and imagined positive future events. Participants who naturally recalled their positive memories from a field perspective reported decreased vividness and positive affect (i.e., happiness, optimism, hopefulness) when they were instructed to shift to an observer perspective. The same pattern of emotionality ratings was observed when participants' vantage perspective of imagined future events was manipulated. In contrast, shifting participants from observer to field perspective recall of positive memories did not result in changes in ratings of memory-related emotion, although we found an unexpected trend towards reduced vividness. For positive future events, shifting from an observer to a field perspective resulted in decreased vividness but did not lead to any changes in positive emotion. Our findings confirm that vantage perspective plays a key role in determining the emotional impact of positive memories, and demonstrate that this relationship is also evident for images of future positive events.

Recognising safety critical events: can automatic video processing improve naturalistic data analyses?

PubMed

Dozza, Marco; González, Nieves Pañeda

2013-11-01

New trends in research on traffic accidents include Naturalistic Driving Studies (NDS). NDS are based on large scale data collection of driver, vehicle, and environment information in real world. NDS data sets have proven to be extremely valuable for the analysis of safety critical events such as crashes and near crashes. However, finding safety critical events in NDS data is often difficult and time consuming. Safety critical events are currently identified using kinematic triggers, for instance searching for deceleration below a certain threshold signifying harsh braking. Due to the low sensitivity and specificity of this filtering procedure, manual review of video data is currently necessary to decide whether the events identified by the triggers are actually safety critical. Such reviewing procedure is based on subjective decisions, is expensive and time consuming, and often tedious for the analysts. Furthermore, since NDS data is exponentially growing over time, this reviewing procedure may not be viable anymore in the very near future. This study tested the hypothesis that automatic processing of driver video information could increase the correct classification of safety critical events from kinematic triggers in naturalistic driving data. Review of about 400 video sequences recorded from the events, collected by 100 Volvo cars in the euroFOT project, suggested that drivers' individual reaction may be the key to recognize safety critical events. In fact, whether an event is safety critical or not often depends on the individual driver. A few algorithms, able to automatically classify driver reaction from video data, have been compared. The results presented in this paper show that the state of the art subjective review procedures to identify safety critical events from NDS can benefit from automated objective video processing. In addition, this paper discusses the major challenges in making such video analysis viable for future NDS and new potential applications for NDS video processing. As new NDS such as SHRP2 are now providing the equivalent of five years of one vehicle data each day, the development of new methods, such as the one proposed in this paper, seems necessary to guarantee that these data can actually be analysed. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Using Emotion as Information in Future-Oriented Cognition: Individual Differences in the Context of State Negative Affect

PubMed Central

Marroquín, Brett; Boyle, Chloe C.; Nolen-Hoeksema, Susan; Stanton, Annette L.

2016-01-01

Predictions about the future are susceptible to mood-congruent influences of emotional state. However, recent work suggests individuals also differ in the degree to which they incorporate emotion into cognition. This study examined the role of such individual differences in the context of state negative emotion. We examined whether trait tendencies to use negative or positive emotion as information affect individuals' predictions of what will happen in the future (likelihood estimation) and how events will feel (affective forecasting), and whether trait influences depend on emotional state. Participants (N=119) reported on tendencies to use emotion as information (“following feelings”), underwent an emotion induction (negative versus neutral), and made likelihood estimates and affective forecasts for future events. Views of the future were predicted by both emotional state and individual differences in following feelings. Whereas following negative feelings affected most future-oriented cognition across emotional states, following positive feelings specifically buffered individuals' views of the future in the negative emotion condition, and specifically for positive future events, a category of future-event prediction especially important in psychological health. Individual differences may confer predisposition toward optimistic or pessimistic expectations of the future in the context of acute negative emotion, with implications for adaptive and maladaptive functioning. PMID:27041783

Characterizing Future El Niño Impacts to the Lower Colorado River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santos, N. I.; Miller, W. P.; Piechota, T. C.; Lakshmi, V.

2015-12-01

Past El Niño events in the Colorado River Basin, such as the 1982-1983 event, resulted in one of the basin's wettest years on record. Looking at past events and the current forecasts, which indicate Pacific Ocean conditions could lead to one of the strongest El Niño events on record this winter, it is no wonder that many water management agencies and their customers are expecting a relief in the southwestern United States (US) drought intensity as the probability of a strong El Niño becomes more significant. Despite the conditions in the Pacific Ocean, a strong El Niño is not a guarantee for wet conditions in the Colorado River basin - as can be seen from the 2002 event in which basin conditions were one of the driest on record. There is a great need to understand the range of possible conditions that could be observed under an El Niño event to better inform southwestern US water management agencies so that they may make well-guided decisions regarding their most valuable resource - the Colorado River. This study builds upon past research based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) climatology and hydrology projections and the analysis performed with singular variable decomposition (SVD) to identify climate models with high correlation between historical climate/hydrology in the CRB and sea surface temperature conditions in the Pacific Ocean. Past research methods were able to identify climate models which performed well using the SVD methodology. This current project seeks to analyze the well-performing climate models and identify future El Niño conditions in the Pacific Ocean and the resultant precipitation and temperature impacts in the lower CRB. This analysis will provide an objective, ensemble based outlook for potential climate change impacts under El Niño events.The results of the study can potentially assist lower CRB water management agencies in characterizing the range of future El Niño impacts, under climate change conditions. It is expected that this information could be beneficial in understanding the range of potential El Niño impacts and their effect on drought in the southwestern US.

A large set of potential past, present and future hydro-meteorological time series for the UK

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guillod, Benoit P.; Jones, Richard G.; Dadson, Simon J.; Coxon, Gemma; Bussi, Gianbattista; Freer, James; Kay, Alison L.; Massey, Neil R.; Sparrow, Sarah N.; Wallom, David C. H.; Allen, Myles R.; Hall, Jim W.

2018-01-01

Hydro-meteorological extremes such as drought and heavy precipitation can have large impacts on society and the economy. With potentially increasing risks associated with such events due to climate change, properly assessing the associated impacts and uncertainties is critical for adequate adaptation. However, the application of risk-based approaches often requires large sets of extreme events, which are not commonly available. Here, we present such a large set of hydro-meteorological time series for recent past and future conditions for the United Kingdom based on weather@home 2, a modelling framework consisting of a global climate model (GCM) driven by observed or projected sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice which is downscaled to 25 km over the European domain by a regional climate model (RCM). Sets of 100 time series are generated for each of (i) a historical baseline (1900-2006), (ii) five near-future scenarios (2020-2049) and (iii) five far-future scenarios (2070-2099). The five scenarios in each future time slice all follow the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) and sample the range of sea surface temperature and sea ice changes from CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) models. Validation of the historical baseline highlights good performance for temperature and potential evaporation, but substantial seasonal biases in mean precipitation, which are corrected using a linear approach. For extremes in low precipitation over a long accumulation period ( > 3 months) and shorter-duration high precipitation (1-30 days), the time series generally represents past statistics well. Future projections show small precipitation increases in winter but large decreases in summer on average, leading to an overall drying, consistently with the most recent UK Climate Projections (UKCP09) but larger in magnitude than the latter. Both drought and high-precipitation events are projected to increase in frequency and intensity in most regions, highlighting the need for appropriate adaptation measures. Overall, the presented dataset is a useful tool for assessing the risk associated with drought and more generally with hydro-meteorological extremes in the UK.

PubMed Central

Capanna, A.; Gervasi, G.; Terracciano, E.; Zaratti, L.

2017-01-01

Summary Routine mass immunization programs have contributed greatly to the control of infectious diseases and to the improvement of the health of populations. Over the last decades, the rise of antivaccination movements has threatened the advances made in this field to the point that vaccination coverage rates have decreased and outbreaks of vaccine-preventable diseases have resurfaced. One of the critical points of the immunization debate revolves around the level of risk attributable to vaccination, namely the possibility of experiencing serious and possibly irreversible adverse events. Unfortunately, the knowledge about adverse events, especially rare ones, is usually incomplete at best and the attribution of a causal relationship with vaccinations is subject to significant uncertainties. The aim of this paper is to provide a narrative review of seven rare or very rare adverse events: hypotonic hyporesponsive episode, multiple sclerosis, apnea in preterm newborns, Guillain-Barré syndrome, vasculitides, arthritis/ arthralgia, immune thrombocytopenic purpura. We have selected these adverse events based on our experience of questions asked by health care workers involved in vaccination services. Information on the chosen adverse events was retrieved from Medline using appropriate search terms. The review is in the form of questions and answers for each adverse event, with a view to providing useful and actionable concepts while not ignoring the uncertainties that remain. We also highlight in the conclusion possible future improvements to adverse event detection and assessment that could help identify individuals at higher risk against the probable future backdrop of ever-greater abandonment of compulsory vaccination policies. PMID:28515627

Multi-day activity scheduling reactions to planned activities and future events in a dynamic model of activity-travel behavior

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nijland, Linda; Arentze, Theo; Timmermans, Harry

2014-01-01

Modeling multi-day planning has received scarce attention in activity-based transport demand modeling so far. However, new dynamic activity-based approaches are being developed at the current moment. The frequency and inflexibility of planned activities and events in activity schedules of individuals indicate the importance of incorporating those pre-planned activities in the new generation of dynamic travel demand models. Elaborating and combining previous work on event-driven activity generation, the aim of this paper is to develop and illustrate an extension of a need-based model of activity generation that takes into account possible influences of pre-planned activities and events. This paper describes the theory and shows the results of simulations of the extension. The simulation was conducted for six different activities, and the parameter values used were consistent with an earlier estimation study. The results show that the model works well and that the influences of the parameters are consistent, logical, and have clear interpretations. These findings offer further evidence of face and construct validity to the suggested modeling approach.

Mediators of the Availability Heuristic in Probability Estimates of Future Events.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Levi, Ariel S.; Pryor, John B.

Individuals often estimate the probability of future events by the ease with which they can recall or cognitively construct relevant instances. Previous research has not precisely identified the cognitive processes mediating this "availability heuristic." Two potential mediators (imagery of the event, perceived reasons or causes for the…

Precipitation Organization in a Warmer Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rickenbach, T. M.; Nieto Ferreira, R.; Nissenbaum, M.

2014-12-01

This study will investigate changes in precipitation organization in a warmer climate using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and CMIP-5 ensemble climate simulations. This work builds from an existing four-year NEXRAD radar-based precipitation climatology over the southeastern U.S. that uses a simple two-category framework of precipitation organization based on instantaneous precipitating feature size. The first category - mesoscale precipitation features (MPF) - dominates winter precipitation and is linked to the more predictable large-scale forcing provided by the extratropical cyclones. In contrast, the second category - isolated precipitation - dominates the summer season precipitation in the southern coastal and inland regions but is linked to less predictable mesoscale circulations and to local thermodynamics more crudely represented in climate models. Most climate modeling studies suggest that an accelerated water cycle in a warmer world will lead to an overall increase in precipitation, but few studies have addressed how precipitation organization may change regionally. To address this, WRF will simulate representative wintertime and summertime precipitation events in the Southeast US under the current and future climate. These events will be simulated in an environment resembling the future climate of the 2090s using the pseudo-global warming (PGW) approach based on an ensemble of temperature projections. The working hypothesis is that the higher water vapor content in the future simulation will result in an increase in the number of isolated convective systems, while MPFs will be more intense and longer-lasting. In the context of the seasonal climatology of MPF and isolated precipitation, these results have implications for assessing the predictability of future regional precipitation in the southeastern U.S.

HOS network-based classification of power quality events via regression algorithms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palomares Salas, José Carlos; González de la Rosa, Juan José; Sierra Fernández, José María; Pérez, Agustín Agüera

2015-12-01

This work compares seven regression algorithms implemented in artificial neural networks (ANNs) supported by 14 power-quality features, which are based in higher-order statistics. Combining time and frequency domain estimators to deal with non-stationary measurement sequences, the final goal of the system is the implementation in the future smart grid to guarantee compatibility between all equipment connected. The principal results are based in spectral kurtosis measurements, which easily adapt to the impulsive nature of the power quality events. These results verify that the proposed technique is capable of offering interesting results for power quality (PQ) disturbance classification. The best results are obtained using radial basis networks, generalized regression, and multilayer perceptron, mainly due to the non-linear nature of data.

Repetition-related reductions in neural activity reveal component processes of mental simulation.

PubMed

Szpunar, Karl K; St Jacques, Peggy L; Robbins, Clifford A; Wig, Gagan S; Schacter, Daniel L

2014-05-01

In everyday life, people adaptively prepare for the future by simulating dynamic events about impending interactions with people, objects and locations. Previous research has consistently demonstrated that a distributed network of frontal-parietal-temporal brain regions supports this ubiquitous mental activity. Nonetheless, little is known about the manner in which specific regions of this network contribute to component features of future simulation. In two experiments, we used a functional magnetic resonance (fMR)-repetition suppression paradigm to demonstrate that distinct frontal-parietal-temporal regions are sensitive to processing the scenarios or what participants imagined was happening in an event (e.g., medial prefrontal, posterior cingulate, temporal-parietal and middle temporal cortices are sensitive to the scenarios associated with future social events), people (medial prefrontal cortex), objects (inferior frontal and premotor cortices) and locations (posterior cingulate/retrosplenial, parahippocampal and posterior parietal cortices) that typically constitute simulations of personal future events. This pattern of results demonstrates that the neural substrates of these component features of event simulations can be reliably identified in the context of a task that requires participants to simulate complex, everyday future experiences.

Comparison of Ionospheric and Thermospheric Effects During Two High Speed Stream Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verkhoglyadova, O. P.; Tsurutani, B.; Mannucci, A. J.; Paxton, L.; Mlynczak, M. G.; Hunt, L. A.; Echer, E.

2013-12-01

We analyze two CIR-HSS events during ascending phase of the current solar cycle. The first event occurred on 8-12 May 2012 and was characterized by a large CIR and intense High Intensity Long Duration Continuous Auroral Activity (HILDCAA). Long-duration moderate geomagnetic storm (Dst ~ -50 nT) occurred during this event. The second event on 29 April - 4 May 2011 had a large CIR and extended HSS, but weaker geomagnetic activity. We focus on understanding differences and similarities of the magnetosphere-ionosphere-thermosphere coupling during these two events. We will use a suite of ground-based and satellite measurements to create a comprehensive picture of the events. Evolution of the polar cap convection pattern is analyzed based on SuperDARN data. DMSP/SSUSI far ultraviolet measurements provide information on airglow intensity and characteristics of the F-region of the dusktime ionosphere. The GPS total electron content (TEC) database and JPL's Global Ionospheric Maps (GIM) are used to study vertical TEC (VTEC) for different local times and latitude ranges. We discuss dynamics of VTEC above individual ground GPS sites with respect to local time and latitude ranges. We analyze the TIMED/SABER zonal flux of nitric oxide (NO) infrared cooling radiation and auroral heating throughout the events. Global dynamics of the column density ratio ΣO/N2 is studied based on TIMED/GUVI measurements. Our results will advance understanding of the ionosphere-thermosphere response to external forcing and help future forecasting efforts.

Commentary: expectations for global health program prioritization from a selection of international students studying at a European university.

PubMed

Quinn, John; Lidinský, Vít; Rajaratnam, Venu; Kruszcynski, Marta; Zeleny, Tomas; Bencko, Vladimir

2016-09-22

Some university curricula struggle to present evidence-based promotion of global health principles and global health diplomacy within an undergraduate setting. The de facto global health paradigm has experienced significant stress and pressure from epidemics, war and violence, climate change and resource challenges. These stressors may lead to increased morbidity and mortality, in turn requiring medical professionals to play a larger role in global health action across borders. In the academic year 2014-2015, an English-speaking international medical school promoted a global health forum with pre-course readings and a pre-attendance quiz. All students from the university were invited to attend and the event was not mandatory. The one-day-event culminated in expert speakers, discussions and a post-event questionnaire to gauge students' reactions and expectations as future physicians regarding the most pressing global health topics. Emphasis was also placed on what future doctors foresee as pressing issues in forthcoming global health policy and programming. This paper is a brief commentary of the Global Health Forum in Prague 2014, and presents novel results from a post-event student questionnaire, with conclusions provided by students on innovative global health policy.

Management of Forested Landscapes: Simulations of three alternatives

Treesearch

Stephen G. Boyce; W. Henry McNab

1994-01-01

Forested landscapes can be managed to support variouscombinations of timber, biological diversity,esthetic values, and habitats. However, all such management decisions arechoices basedon opinions about future events. Opinions underlie managementdecisionsbecause thereis no way to jump into the future, verify a future event, jump back to the present, and make a...

The Medial Temporal Lobes are Critical for Reward-Based Decision Making under Conditions that Promote Episodic Future Thinking

PubMed Central

Palombo, Daniela J.; Keane, Margaret M.; Verfaellie, Mieke

2014-01-01

In the present study, we investigated the effect of medial temporal lobe (MTL) damage on human decision making in the context of reward-based intertemporal choice. During intertemporal choice, humans typically devalue (or discount) a future reward to account for its delayed arrival (e.g., preferring $30 now over $42 in 2 months), but this effect is attenuated when participants engage in episodic future thinking, i.e., project themselves into the future to imagine a specific event. We hypothesized that this attenuation would be selectively impaired in amnesic patients, who have deficits in episodic future thinking. Replicating previous work, in a standard intertemporal choice task, amnesic patients showed temporal discounting indices similar to healthy controls. Consistent with our hypothesis, while healthy controls demonstrated attenuated temporal discounting in a condition that required participants first to engage in episodic future thinking (e.g., to imagine spending $42 at a theatre in 2 months), amnesic patients failed to demonstrate this effect. Moreover, as expected, amnesic patients’ narratives were less episodically rich than those of controls. These findings extend the range of tasks that are shown to be MTL dependent to include not only memory-based decision-making tasks but also future-oriented ones. PMID:25284804

Motivation and intention to integrate physical activity into daily school life: the JAM World Record event.

PubMed

Vazou, Spyridoula; Vlachopoulos, Symeon P

2014-11-01

Research on the motivation of stakeholders to integrate physical activity into daily school life is limited. The purpose was to examine the motivation of stakeholders to participate in a world record physical activity event and whether motivation was associated with future intention to use activity breaks during the daily school life and future participation in a similar event. After the 2012 JAM (Just-a-Minute) World Record event, 686 adults (591 women; 76.1% participated for children <10 years) completed measures of motivational regulations and future intention to (a) use the activity breaks and (b) participate in the event. High intrinsic motivation and low extrinsic motivation and amotivation for participation in the next event were reported. Hierarchical regression analysis, controlling for age, gender, and occupation, showed that intrinsic forms of motivation positively predicted, whereas amotivation negatively predicted, future intention to participate in the event and use the activity breaks. Multivariate analyses of variance revealed that school-related participants were more intrinsically motivated and intended to use the activity breaks and repeat the event more than those who were not affiliated with a school. Nonschool participants reported higher extrinsic motivation and amotivation than school-related participants. © 2014 Society for Public Health Education.

Introducing Life Events in Preschool Education: Future Educators' Attitudes and Perceptions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brouskeli, Vasiliki

2014-01-01

In this study, we aimed to clarify future preschool teachers' attitudes and perceptions about introducing life events, such as chronic illness, hospitalisation, divorce and death to their pupils. We used semi-structured interviews for two different groups who had and had not attended relative to life events courses. Results indicated that future…

Differential response of vegetation in Hulun Lake region at the northern margin of Asian summer monsoon to extreme cold events of the last deglaciation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Shengrui; Xiao, Jule; Xu, Qinghai; Wen, Ruilin; Fan, Jiawei; Huang, Yun; Yamagata, Hideki

2018-06-01

The response of vegetation to extreme cold events during the last deglaciation is important for assessing the impact of possible extreme climatic events on terrestrial ecosystems under future global warming scenarios. Here, we present a detailed record of the development of regional vegetation in the northern margin of Asian summer monsoon during the last deglaciation (16,500-11,000 cal yr BP) based on a radiocarbon-dated high-resolution pollen record from Hulun Lake, northeast China. The results show that the regional vegetation changed from subalpine meadow-desert steppe to mixed coniferous and deciduous forest-typical steppe during the last deglaciation. However, its responses to the Heinrich event 1 (H1) and the Younger Dryas event (YD) were significantly different: during the H1 event, scattered sparse forest was present in the surrounding mountains, while within the lake catchment the vegetation cover was poor and was dominated by desert steppe. In contrast, during the YD event, deciduous forest developed and the proportion of coniferous forest increased in the mountains, the lake catchment was occupied by typical steppe. We suggest that changes in Northern Hemisphere summer insolation and land surface conditions (ice sheets and sea level) caused temperature and monsoonal precipitation variations that contributed to the contrasting vegetation response during the two cold events. We conclude that under future global warming scenarios, extreme climatic events may cause a deterioration of the ecological environment of the Hulun Lake region, resulting in increased coniferous forest and decreased total forest cover in the surrounding mountains, and a reduction in typical steppe in the lake catchment.

The Chilean Press Since Allende.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Knudson, Jerry W.

Based on interviews with 19 Chilean editors, government officials, heads of professional associations, and journalism education directors, this paper deals with the role of the press in Chile and with its future under the current military government. Following a review of the events concerning press control and censorship that followed the…

Strategic Planning in Education: A Guide for Policymakers.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cooper, Harry A.

As defined in chapter I of this guide for policymakers, strategic planning is the method by which an organization identifies relevant trends in its environment, analyzes their potential implications, and projects an integrated strategy to address these future events and their contingencies. This process differs from formalized planning, based on…

A Participatory Modeling Application of a Distributed Hydrologic Model in Nuevo Leon, Mexico for the 2010 Hurricane Alex Flood Event

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baish, A. S.; Vivoni, E. R.; Payan, J. G.; Robles-Morua, A.; Basile, G. M.

2011-12-01

A distributed hydrologic model can help bring consensus among diverse stakeholders in regional flood planning by producing quantifiable sets of alternative futures. This value is acute in areas with high uncertainties in hydrologic conditions and sparse observations. In this study, we conduct an application of the Triangulated Irregular Network (TIN)-based Real-time Integrated Basin Simulator (tRIBS) in the Santa Catarina basin of Nuevo Leon, Mexico, where Hurricane Alex in July 2010 led to catastrophic flooding of the capital city of Monterrey. Distributed model simulations utilize best-available information on the regional topography, land cover, and soils obtained from Mexican government agencies or analysis of remotely-sensed imagery from MODIS and ASTER. Furthermore, we developed meteorological forcing for the flood event based on multiple data sources, including three local gauge networks, satellite-based estimates from TRMM and PERSIANN, and the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS). Remotely-sensed data allowed us to quantify rainfall distributions in the upland, rural portions of the Santa Catarina that are sparsely populated and ungauged. Rural areas had significant contributions to the flood event and as a result were considered by stakeholders for flood control measures, including new reservoirs and upland vegetation management. Participatory modeling workshops with the stakeholders revealed a disconnect between urban and rural populations in regard to understanding the hydrologic conditions of the flood event and the effectiveness of existing and potential flood control measures. Despite these challenges, the use of the distributed flood forecasts developed within this participatory framework facilitated building consensus among diverse stakeholders and exploring alternative futures in the basin.

A multi-scale ensemble-based framework for forecasting compound coastal-riverine flooding: The Hackensack-Passaic watershed and Newark Bay

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saleh, F.; Ramaswamy, V.; Wang, Y.; Georgas, N.; Blumberg, A.; Pullen, J.

2017-12-01

Estuarine regions can experience compound impacts from coastal storm surge and riverine flooding. The challenges in forecasting flooding in such areas are multi-faceted due to uncertainties associated with meteorological drivers and interactions between hydrological and coastal processes. The objective of this work is to evaluate how uncertainties from meteorological predictions propagate through an ensemble-based flood prediction framework and translate into uncertainties in simulated inundation extents. A multi-scale framework, consisting of hydrologic, coastal and hydrodynamic models, was used to simulate two extreme flood events at the confluence of the Passaic and Hackensack rivers and Newark Bay. The events were Hurricane Irene (2011), a combination of inland flooding and coastal storm surge, and Hurricane Sandy (2012) where coastal storm surge was the dominant component. The hydrodynamic component of the framework was first forced with measured streamflow and ocean water level data to establish baseline inundation extents with the best available forcing data. The coastal and hydrologic models were then forced with meteorological predictions from 21 ensemble members of the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) to retrospectively represent potential future conditions up to 96 hours prior to the events. Inundation extents produced by the hydrodynamic model, forced with the 95th percentile of the ensemble-based coastal and hydrologic boundary conditions, were in good agreement with baseline conditions for both events. The USGS reanalysis of Hurricane Sandy inundation extents was encapsulated between the 50th and 95th percentile of the forecasted inundation extents, and that of Hurricane Irene was similar but with caveats associated with data availability and reliability. This work highlights the importance of accounting for meteorological uncertainty to represent a range of possible future inundation extents at high resolution (∼m).

Hard X-ray Detectability of Small Impulsive Heating Events in the Solar Corona

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Glesener, L.; Klimchuk, J. A.; Bradshaw, S. J.; Marsh, A.; Krucker, S.; Christe, S.

2015-12-01

Impulsive heating events ("nanoflares") are a candidate to supply the solar corona with its ~2 MK temperature. These transient events can be studied using extreme ultraviolet and soft X-ray observations, among others. However, the impulsive events may occur in tenuous loops on small enough timescales that the heating is essentially not observed due to ionization timescales, and only the cooling phase is observed. Bremsstrahlung hard X-rays could serve as a more direct and prompt indicator of transient heating events. A hard X-ray spacecraft based on the direct-focusing technology pioneered by the Focusing Optics X-ray Solar Imager (FOXSI) sounding rocket could search for these direct signatures. In this work, we use the hydrodynamical EBTEL code to simulate differential emission measures produced by individual heating events and by ensembles of such events. We then directly predict hard X-ray spectra and consider their observability by a future spaceborne FOXSI, and also by the RHESSI and NuSTAR spacecraft.

Predicting individual action switching in covert and continuous interactive tasks using the fluid events model

DOE PAGES

Radvansky, Gabriel A.; D’Mello, Sidney K.; Abbott, Robert G.; ...

2016-01-27

The Fluid Events Model is aimed at predicting changes in the actions people take on a moment-by-moment basis. In contrast with other research on action selection, this work does not investigate why some course of action was selected, but rather the likelihood of discontinuing the current course of action and selecting another in the near future. This is done using both task-based and experience-based factors. Prior work evaluated this model in the context of trial-by-trial, independent, interactive events, such as choosing how to copy a figure of a line drawing. In this paper, we extend this model to more covertmore » event experiences, such as reading narratives, as well as to continuous interactive events, such as playing a video game. To this end, the model was applied to existing data sets of reading time and event segmentation for written and picture stories. It was also applied to existing data sets of performance in a strategy board game, an aerial combat game, and a first person shooter game in which a participant’s current state was dependent on prior events. The results revealed that the model predicted behavior changes well, taking into account both the theoretically defined structure of the described events, as well as a person’s prior experience. Hence, theories of event cognition can benefit from efforts that take into account not only how events in the world are structured, but also how people experience those events.« less

Predicting Individual Action Switching in Covert and Continuous Interactive Tasks Using the Fluid Events Model

PubMed Central

Radvansky, Gabriel A.; D’Mello, Sidney K.; Abbott, Robert G.; Bixler, Robert E.

2016-01-01

The Fluid Events Model is aimed at predicting changes in the actions people take on a moment-by-moment basis. In contrast with other research on action selection, this work does not investigate why some course of action was selected, but rather the likelihood of discontinuing the current course of action and selecting another in the near future. This is done using both task-based and experience-based factors. Prior work evaluated this model in the context of trial-by-trial, independent, interactive events, such as choosing how to copy a figure of a line drawing. In this paper, we extend this model to more covert event experiences, such as reading narratives, as well as to continuous interactive events, such as playing a video game. To this end, the model was applied to existing data sets of reading time and event segmentation for written and picture stories. It was also applied to existing data sets of performance in a strategy board game, an aerial combat game, and a first person shooter game in which a participant’s current state was dependent on prior events. The results revealed that the model predicted behavior changes well, taking into account both the theoretically defined structure of the described events, as well as a person’s prior experience. Thus, theories of event cognition can benefit from efforts that take into account not only how events in the world are structured, but also how people experience those events. PMID:26858673

Predicting Individual Action Switching in Covert and Continuous Interactive Tasks Using the Fluid Events Model.

PubMed

Radvansky, Gabriel A; D'Mello, Sidney K; Abbott, Robert G; Bixler, Robert E

2016-01-01

The Fluid Events Model is aimed at predicting changes in the actions people take on a moment-by-moment basis. In contrast with other research on action selection, this work does not investigate why some course of action was selected, but rather the likelihood of discontinuing the current course of action and selecting another in the near future. This is done using both task-based and experience-based factors. Prior work evaluated this model in the context of trial-by-trial, independent, interactive events, such as choosing how to copy a figure of a line drawing. In this paper, we extend this model to more covert event experiences, such as reading narratives, as well as to continuous interactive events, such as playing a video game. To this end, the model was applied to existing data sets of reading time and event segmentation for written and picture stories. It was also applied to existing data sets of performance in a strategy board game, an aerial combat game, and a first person shooter game in which a participant's current state was dependent on prior events. The results revealed that the model predicted behavior changes well, taking into account both the theoretically defined structure of the described events, as well as a person's prior experience. Thus, theories of event cognition can benefit from efforts that take into account not only how events in the world are structured, but also how people experience those events.

Predicting individual action switching in covert and continuous interactive tasks using the fluid events model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Radvansky, Gabriel A.; D’Mello, Sidney K.; Abbott, Robert G.

The Fluid Events Model is aimed at predicting changes in the actions people take on a moment-by-moment basis. In contrast with other research on action selection, this work does not investigate why some course of action was selected, but rather the likelihood of discontinuing the current course of action and selecting another in the near future. This is done using both task-based and experience-based factors. Prior work evaluated this model in the context of trial-by-trial, independent, interactive events, such as choosing how to copy a figure of a line drawing. In this paper, we extend this model to more covertmore » event experiences, such as reading narratives, as well as to continuous interactive events, such as playing a video game. To this end, the model was applied to existing data sets of reading time and event segmentation for written and picture stories. It was also applied to existing data sets of performance in a strategy board game, an aerial combat game, and a first person shooter game in which a participant’s current state was dependent on prior events. The results revealed that the model predicted behavior changes well, taking into account both the theoretically defined structure of the described events, as well as a person’s prior experience. Hence, theories of event cognition can benefit from efforts that take into account not only how events in the world are structured, but also how people experience those events.« less

Automatic Optimism: The Affective Basis of Judgments about the Likelihood of Future Events

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lench, Heather C.

2009-01-01

People generally judge that the future will be consistent with their desires, but the reason for this desirability bias is unclear. This investigation examined whether affective reactions associated with future events are the mechanism through which desires influence likelihood judgments. In 4 studies, affective reactions were manipulated for…

Episodic and semantic components of autobiographical memories and imagined future events in post-traumatic stress disorder.

PubMed

Brown, Adam D; Addis, Donna Rose; Romano, Tracy A; Marmar, Charles R; Bryant, Richard A; Hirst, William; Schacter, Daniel L

2014-01-01

Individuals with post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) tend to retrieve autobiographical memories with less episodic specificity, referred to as overgeneralised autobiographical memory. In line with evidence that autobiographical memory overlaps with one's capacity to imagine the future, recent work has also shown that individuals with PTSD also imagine themselves in the future with less episodic specificity. To date most studies quantify episodic specificity by the presence of a distinct event. However, this method does not distinguish between the numbers of internal (episodic) and external (semantic) details, which can provide additional insights into remembering the past and imagining the future. This study employed the Autobiographical Interview (AI) coding scheme to the autobiographical memory and imagined future event narratives generated by combat veterans with and without PTSD. Responses were coded for the number of internal and external details. Compared to combat veterans without PTSD, those with PTSD generated more external than internal details when recalling past or imagining future events, and fewer internal details were associated with greater symptom severity. The potential mechanisms underlying these bidirectional deficits and clinical implications are discussed.

A large silent earthquake and the future rupture of the Guerrero seismic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kostoglodov, V.; Lowry, A.; Singh, S.; Larson, K.; Santiago, J.; Franco, S.; Bilham, R.

2003-04-01

The largest global earthquakes typically occur at subduction zones, at the seismogenic boundary between two colliding tectonic plates. These earthquakes release elastic strains accumulated over many decades of plate motion. Forecasts of these events have large errors resulting from poor knowledge of the seismic cycle. The discovery of slow slip events or "silent earthquakes" in Japan, Alaska, Cascadia and Mexico provides a new glimmer of hope. In these subduction zones, the seismogenic part of the plate interface is loading not steadily as hitherto believed, but incrementally, partitioning the stress buildup with the slow slip events. If slow aseismic slip is limited to the region downdip of the future rupture zone, slip events may increase the stress at the base of the seismogenic region, incrementing it closer to failure. However if some aseismic slip occurs on the future rupture zone, the partitioning may significantly reduce the stress buildup rate (SBR) and delay a future large earthquake. Here we report characteristics of the largest slow earthquake observed to date (Mw 7.5), and its implications for future failure of the Guerrero seismic gap, Mexico. The silent earthquake began in October 2001 and lasted for 6-7 months. Slow slip produced measurable displacements over an area of 550x250 km2. Average slip on the interface was about 10 cm and the equivalent magnitude, Mw, was 7.5. A shallow subhorizontal configuration of the plate interface in Guererro is a controlling factor for the physical conditions favorable for such extensive slow slip. The total coupled zone in Guerrero is 120-170 km wide while the seismogenic, shallowest portion is only 50 km. This future rupture zone may slip contemporaneously with the deeper aseismic sleep, thereby reducing SBR. The slip partitioning between seismogenic and transition coupled zones may diminish SBR up to 50%. These two factors are probably responsible for a long (at least since 1911) quiet on the Guerrero seismic gap in Mexico. The discovery of silent earthquakes in Guerrero in 1972, 1979, 1998, and 2001-2002 calls for a reassessment of the seismic potential and careful seismotectonic monitoring of the seismic gaps in Mexico.

The role of magical thinking in forecasting the future.

PubMed

Stavrova, Olga; Meckel, Andrea

2017-02-01

This article explores the role of magical thinking in the subjective probabilities of future chance events. In five experiments, we show that individuals tend to predict a more lucky future (reflected in probability judgements of lucky and unfortunate chance events) for someone who happened to purchase a product associated with a highly moral person than for someone who unknowingly purchased a product associated with a highly immoral person. In the former case, positive events were considered more likely than negative events, whereas in the latter case, the difference in the likelihood judgement of positive and negative events disappeared or even reversed. Our results indicate that this effect is unlikely to be driven by participants' immanent justice beliefs, the availability heuristic, or experimenter demand. Finally, we show that individuals rely more heavily on magical thinking when their need for control is threatened, thus suggesting that lack of control represents a factor in driving magical thinking in making predictions about the future. © 2016 The British Psychological Society.

Effect of Binary Source Companions on the Microlensing Optical Depth Determination toward the Galactic Bulge Field

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, Cheongho

2005-11-01

Currently, gravitational microlensing survey experiments toward the Galactic bulge field use two different methods of minimizing the blending effect for the accurate determination of the optical depth τ. One is measuring τ based on clump giant (CG) source stars, and the other is using ``difference image analysis'' (DIA) photometry to measure the unblended source flux variation. Despite the expectation that the two estimates should be the same assuming that blending is properly considered, the estimates based on CG stars systematically fall below the DIA results based on all events with source stars down to the detection limit. Prompted by the gap, we investigate the previously unconsidered effect of companion-associated events on τ determination. Although the image of a companion is blended with that of its primary star and thus not resolved, the event associated with the companion can be detected if the companion flux is highly magnified. Therefore, companions work effectively as source stars to microlensing, and thus the neglect of them in the source star count could result in a wrong τ estimation. By carrying out simulations based on the assumption that companions follow the same luminosity function as primary stars, we estimate that the contribution of the companion-associated events to the total event rate is ~5fbi% for current surveys and can reach up to ~6fbi% for future surveys monitoring fainter stars, where fbi is the binary frequency. Therefore, we conclude that the companion-associated events comprise a nonnegligible fraction of all events. However, their contribution to the optical depth is not large enough to explain the systematic difference between the optical depth estimates based on the two different methods.

When does the future begin? Time metrics matter, connecting present and future selves.

PubMed

Lewis, Neil A; Oyserman, Daphna

2015-06-01

People assume they should attend to the present; their future self can handle the future. This seemingly plausible rule of thumb can lead people astray, in part because some future events require current action. In order for the future to energize and motivate current action, it must feel imminent. To create this sense of imminence, we manipulated time metric--the units (e.g., days, years) in which time is considered. People interpret accessible time metrics in two ways: If preparation for the future is under way (Studies 1 and 2), people interpret metrics as implying when a future event will occur. If preparation is not under way (Studies 3-5), they interpret metrics as implying when preparation should start (e.g., planning to start saving 4 times sooner for a retirement in 10,950 days instead of 30 years). Time metrics mattered not because they changed how distal or important future events felt (Study 6), but because they changed how connected and congruent their current and future selves felt (Study 7). © The Author(s) 2015.

A Measurement Plane for Optical Networks to Manage Emergency Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tego, E.; Carciofi, C.; Grazioso, P.; Petrini, V.; Pompei, S.; Matera, F.; Attanasio, V.; Nastri, E.; Restuccia, E.

2017-11-01

In this work, we show a wide geographical area optical network test bed, adopting the mPlane measurement plane for monitoring its performance and to manage software defined network approaches, with some specific tests and procedures dedicated to respond to disaster events and to support emergency networks. Such a test bed includes FTTX accesses, and it is currently implemented to support future 5G wireless services with slicing procedures based on Carrier Ethernet. The characteristics of this platform have been experimentally tested in the case of a damage-causing link failure and traffic congestion, showing a fast reactions to these disastrous events, allowing the user to recharge the initial QoS parameters.

From Tornadoes to Earthquakes: Forecast Verification for Binary Events Applied to the 1999 Chi-Chi, Taiwan, Earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, C.; Rundle, J. B.; Holliday, J. R.; Nanjo, K.; Turcotte, D. L.; Li, S.; Tiampo, K. F.

2005-12-01

Forecast verification procedures for statistical events with binary outcomes typically rely on the use of contingency tables and Relative Operating Characteristic (ROC) diagrams. Originally developed for the statistical evaluation of tornado forecasts on a county-by-county basis, these methods can be adapted to the evaluation of competing earthquake forecasts. Here we apply these methods retrospectively to two forecasts for the m = 7.3 1999 Chi-Chi, Taiwan, earthquake. These forecasts are based on a method, Pattern Informatics (PI), that locates likely sites for future large earthquakes based on large change in activity of the smallest earthquakes. A competing null hypothesis, Relative Intensity (RI), is based on the idea that future large earthquake locations are correlated with sites having the greatest frequency of small earthquakes. We show that for Taiwan, the PI forecast method is superior to the RI forecast null hypothesis. Inspection of the two maps indicates that their forecast locations are indeed quite different. Our results confirm an earlier result suggesting that the earthquake preparation process for events such as the Chi-Chi earthquake involves anomalous changes in activation or quiescence, and that signatures of these processes can be detected in precursory seismicity data. Furthermore, we find that our methods can accurately forecast the locations of aftershocks from precursory seismicity changes alone, implying that the main shock together with its aftershocks represent a single manifestation of the formation of a high-stress region nucleating prior to the main shock.

Optimal Futility Interim Design: A Predictive Probability of Success Approach with Time-to-Event Endpoint.

PubMed

Tang, Zhongwen

2015-01-01

An analytical way to compute predictive probability of success (PPOS) together with credible interval at interim analysis (IA) is developed for big clinical trials with time-to-event endpoints. The method takes account of the fixed data up to IA, the amount of uncertainty in future data, and uncertainty about parameters. Predictive power is a special type of PPOS. The result is confirmed by simulation. An optimal design is proposed by finding optimal combination of analysis time and futility cutoff based on some PPOS criteria.

A data-based model to locate mass movements triggered by seismic events in Sichuan, China.

PubMed

de Souza, Fabio Teodoro

2014-01-01

Earthquakes affect the entire world and have catastrophic consequences. On May 12, 2008, an earthquake of magnitude 7.9 on the Richter scale occurred in the Wenchuan area of Sichuan province in China. This event, together with subsequent aftershocks, caused many avalanches, landslides, debris flows, collapses, and quake lakes and induced numerous unstable slopes. This work proposes a methodology that uses a data mining approach and geographic information systems to predict these mass movements based on their association with the main and aftershock epicenters, geologic faults, riverbeds, and topography. A dataset comprising 3,883 mass movements is analyzed, and some models to predict the location of these mass movements are developed. These predictive models could be used by the Chinese authorities as an important tool for identifying risk areas and rescuing survivors during similar events in the future.

Life skills, mathematical reasoning and critical thinking: a curriculum for the prevention of problem gambling.

PubMed

Turner, Nigel E; Macdonald, John; Somerset, Matthew

2008-09-01

Previous studies have shown that youth are two to three times more likely than adults to report gambling related problems. This paper reports on the development and pilot evaluation of a school-based problem gambling prevention curriculum. The prevention program focused on problem gambling awareness and self-monitoring skills, coping skills, and knowledge of the nature of random events. The results of a controlled experiment evaluating the students learning from the program are reported. We found significant improvement in the students' knowledge of random events, knowledge of problem gambling awareness and self-monitoring, and knowledge of coping skills. The results suggest that knowledge based material on random events, problem gambling awareness and self-monitoring skills, and coping skills can be taught. Future development of the curriculum will focus on content to expand the students' coping skill options.

Pricing the property claim service (PCS) catastrophe insurance options using gamma distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Noviyanti, Lienda; Soleh, Achmad Zanbar; Setyanto, Gatot R.

2017-03-01

The catastrophic events like earthquakes, hurricanes or flooding are characteristics for some areas, a properly calculated annual premium would be closely as high as the loss insured. From an actuarial perspective, such events constitute the risk that are not insurable. On the other hand people living in such areas need protection. In order to securitize the catastrophe risk, futures or options based on a loss index could be considered. Chicago Board of Trade launched a new class of catastrophe insurance options based on new indices provided by Property Claim Services (PCS). The PCS-option is based on the Property Claim Service Index (PCS-Index). The index are used to determine and payout in writing index-based insurance derivatives. The objective of this paper is to price PCS Catastrophe Insurance Option based on PCS Catastrophe index. Gamma Distribution is used to estimate PCS Catastrophe index distribution.

Future versus present: time perspective and pupillary response in a relatedness judgment task investigating temporal event knowledge.

PubMed

Nowack, Kati; Milfont, Taciano L; van der Meer, Elke

2013-02-01

Mental representations of events contain many components such as typical agents, instruments, objects as well as a temporal dimension that is directed towards the future. While the role of temporal orientation (chronological, reverse) in event knowledge has been demonstrated by numerous studies, little is known about the influence of time perspective (present or future) as source of individual differences affecting event knowledge. The present study combined behavioral data with task-evoked pupil dilation to examine the impact of time perspective on cognitive resource allocation. In a relatedness judgment task, everyday events like raining were paired with an object feature like wet. Chronological items were processed more easily than reverse items regardless of time perspective. When more automatic processes were applied, greater scores on future time perspective were associated with lower error rates for chronological items. This suggests that a match between a strong focus on future consequences and items with a temporal orientation directed toward the future serves to enhance responding accuracy. Indexed by pupillary data, future-oriented participants invested more cognitive resources while outperforming present-oriented participants in reaction times across all conditions. This result was supported by a principal component analysis on the pupil data, which demonstrated the same impact of time perspective on the factor associated with more general aspects of cognitive effort. These findings suggest that future time perspective may be linked to a more general cognitive performance characteristic that improves overall task performance. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

River-ice break-up/freeze-up: a review of climatic drivers, historical trends and future predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prowse, T. D.; Bonsal, B. R.; Duguay, C. R.; Lacroix, M. P.

2007-10-01

River ice plays a fundamental role in biological, chemical and physical processes that control freshwater regimes of the cold regions. Moreover, it can have enormous economic implications for river-based developments. All such activities and processes can be modified significantly by any changes to river-ice thickness, composition or event timing and severity. This paper briefly reviews some of the major hydraulic, mechanical and thermodynamic processes controlling river-ice events and how these are influenced by variations in climate. A regional and temporal synthesis is also made of the observed historical trends in river-ice break-up/freeze-up occurrence from the Eurasian and North American cold regions. This involves assessment of several hydroclimatic variables that have influenced past trends and variability in river-ice break-up/freeze-up dates including air-temperature indicators (e.g. seasonal temperature, 0°C isotherm dates and various degree-days) and large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns or teleconnections. Implications of future climate change on the timing and severity of river-ice events are presented and discussed in relation to the historical trends. Attention is drawn to the increasing trends towards the occurrence of mid-winter break-up events that can produce especially severe flood conditions but prove to be the most difficult type of event to model and predict.

Stochastic integrated assessment of climate tipping points indicates the need for strict climate policy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lontzek, Thomas S.; Cai, Yongyang; Judd, Kenneth L.; Lenton, Timothy M.

2015-05-01

Perhaps the most `dangerous’ aspect of future climate change is the possibility that human activities will push parts of the climate system past tipping points, leading to irreversible impacts. The likelihood of such large-scale singular events is expected to increase with global warming, but is fundamentally uncertain. A key question is how should the uncertainty surrounding tipping events affect climate policy? We address this using a stochastic integrated assessment model, based on the widely used deterministic DICE model. The temperature-dependent likelihood of tipping is calibrated using expert opinions, which we find to be internally consistent. The irreversible impacts of tipping events are assumed to accumulate steadily over time (rather than instantaneously), consistent with scientific understanding. Even with conservative assumptions about the rate and impacts of a stochastic tipping event, today’s optimal carbon tax is increased by ~50%. For a plausibly rapid, high-impact tipping event, today’s optimal carbon tax is increased by >200%. The additional carbon tax to delay climate tipping grows at only about half the rate of the baseline carbon tax. This implies that the effective discount rate for the costs of stochastic climate tipping is much lower than the discount rate for deterministic climate damages. Our results support recent suggestions that the costs of carbon emission used to inform policy are being underestimated, and that uncertain future climate damages should be discounted at a low rate.

A Meta-Analysis and Critical Review of Prospective Memory in Autism Spectrum Disorder

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Landsiedel, Julia; Williams, David M.; Abbot-Smith, Kirsten

2017-01-01

Prospective memory (PM) is the ability to remember to carry out a planned intention at an appropriate moment in the future. Research on PM in ASD has produced mixed results. We aimed to establish the extent to which two types of PM (event-based/time-based) are impaired in ASD. In part 1, a meta-analysis of all existing studies indicates a large…

Department of Defense Base Structure Report for Fiscal Year 1989

DTIC Science & Technology

1988-03-01

restrictions and increased real estate costs, future land requirawnts must be identified and the rights acquired as soon as possible. 2. Socio -Ecrxnic...and Environment Encroadment - Cmmrcial and enviromental interests will increasingly create pressures on cur installations to divest real estate or...sustaining base in the event of actual conflict . I A Overseas deployed units should be located in close proximity to the area of their anticipated wartime

The Relationship of Work Values to Satisfaction with Retirement and Future Time Perspective.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Halpern, Doryan

This study tested two hypotheses: (1) the importance attached to the intrinsic aspects of work is negatively related to retirement satisfaction, maximum extension of future time perspective (FTP), and the number of events anticipated in the future; (2) retirement satisfaction is positively related to FTP maximum length and events anticipated.…

A Multi-Level Approach to Modeling Rapidly Growing Mega-Regions as a Coupled Human-Natural System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koch, J. A.; Tang, W.; Meentemeyer, R. K.

2013-12-01

The FUTure Urban-Regional Environment Simulation (FUTURES) integrates information on nonstationary drivers of land change (per capita land area demand, site suitability, and spatial structure of conversion events) into spatial-temporal projections of changes in landscape patterns (Meentemeyer et al., 2013). One striking feature of FUTURES is its patch-growth algorithm that includes feedback effects of former development events across several temporal and spatial scales: cell-level transition events are aggregated into patches of land change and their further growth is based on empirically derived parameters controlling its size, shape, and dispersion. Here, we augment the FUTURES modeling framework by expanding its multilevel structure and its representation of human decision making. The new modeling framework is hierarchically organized as nested subsystems including the latest theory on telecouplings in coupled human-natural systems (Liu et al., 2013). Each subsystem represents a specific level of spatial scale and embraces agents that have decision making authority at a particular level. The subsystems are characterized with regard to their spatial representation and are connected via flows of information (e.g. regulations and policies) or material (e.g. population migration). To provide a modeling framework that is applicable to a wide range of settings and geographical regions and to keep it computationally manageable, we implement a 'zooming factor' that allows to enable or disable subsystems (and hence the represented processes), based on the extent of the study region. The implementation of the FUTURES modeling framework for a specific case study follows the observational modeling approach described in Grimm et al. (2005), starting from the analysis of empirical data in order to capture the processes relevant for specific scales and to allow a rigorous calibration and validation of the model application. In this paper, we give an introduction to the basic concept of our modeling approach and describe its strengths and weaknesses. We furthermore use empirical data for the states of North and South Carolina to demonstrate how the modeling framework can be applied to a large, heterogeneous study system with diverse decision-making agents. Grimm et al. (2005) Pattern-Oriented Modeling of Agent-Based Complex Systems: Lessons from Ecology. Science 310, 987-991. Liu et al. (2013) Framing Sustainability in a Telecoupled World. Ecology and Society 18(2), 26. Meentemeyer et al. (2013) FUTURES: Multilevel Simulations of Merging Urban-Rural Landscape Structure Using a Stochastic Patch-Growing Algorithm. Annals of the Association of American Geographers 103(4), 785-807.

Looking forward: the effects of photographs on the qualities of future thinking.

PubMed

Bays, Rebecca B; Wellen, Brianna C M; Greenberg, Katherine S

2018-04-01

Future episodic thinking relies on the reconstruction of remembered experiences. Photographs provide one means of remembering, acting as a "cognitive springboard" for generating related memory qualities. We wondered whether photographs would also invite embellishment of future thought qualities, particularly in the presence (or absence) of associated memories. In two studies participants generated future events in familiar (associated memories) and novel (no associated memories) locations. Half of the participants viewed scene location photographs during event generation. All participants then imagined the events for one minute and completed a self-report measure of content qualities. Results of the current set of studies suggested that for novel locations, no differences in qualities emerged; however, for familiar locations, photographs did not enhance qualities and, in some cases, actually constrained perceptual (Experiments 1 and 2) and sensory (Experiment 1) detail ratings of future thoughts. Thus, photographs did not invite embellishment of future thought details.

Return periods of losses associated with European windstorm series in a changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karremann, Melanie K.; Pinto, Joaquim G.; Reyers, Mark; Klawa, Matthias

2015-04-01

During the last decades, several windstorm series hit Europe leading to large aggregated losses. Such storm series are examples of serial clustering of extreme cyclones, presenting a considerable risk for the insurance industry. Clustering of events and return periods of storm series affecting Europe are quantified based on potential losses using empirical models. Moreover, possible future changes of clustering and return periods of European storm series with high potential losses are quantified. Historical storm series are identified using 40 winters of NCEP reanalysis data (1973/1974 - 2012/2013). Time series of top events (1, 2 or 5 year return levels) are used to assess return periods of storm series both empirically and theoretically. Return periods of historical storm series are estimated based on the Poisson and the negative binomial distributions. Additionally, 800 winters of ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 general circulation model simulations for present (SRES scenario 20C: years 1960- 2000) and future (SRES scenario A1B: years 2060- 2100) climate conditions are investigated. Clustering is identified for most countries in Europe, and estimated return periods are similar for reanalysis and present day simulations. Future changes of return periods are estimated for fixed return levels and fixed loss index thresholds. For the former, shorter return periods are found for Western Europe, but changes are small and spatially heterogeneous. For the latter, which combines the effects of clustering and event ranking shifts, shorter return periods are found everywhere except for Mediterranean countries. These changes are generally not statistically significant between recent and future climate. However, the return periods for the fixed loss index approach are mostly beyond the range of preindustrial natural climate variability. This is not true for fixed return levels. The quantification of losses associated with storm series permits a more adequate windstorm risk assessment in a changing climate.

Adaptive constructive processes and the future of memory.

PubMed

Schacter, Daniel L

2012-11-01

Memory serves critical functions in everyday life but is also prone to error. This article examines adaptive constructive processes, which play a functional role in memory and cognition but can also produce distortions, errors, and illusions. The article describes several types of memory errors that are produced by adaptive constructive processes and focuses in particular on the process of imagining or simulating events that might occur in one's personal future. Simulating future events relies on many of the same cognitive and neural processes as remembering past events, which may help to explain why imagination and memory can be easily confused. The article considers both pitfalls and adaptive aspects of future event simulation in the context of research on planning, prediction, problem solving, mind-wandering, prospective and retrospective memory, coping and positivity bias, and the interconnected set of brain regions known as the default network. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved.

A Comparison of Preschoolers' Memory, Knowledge, and Anticipation of Events

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Quon, Elizabeth; Atance, Cristina M.

2010-01-01

This study examined the development of the episodic and semantic memory systems, with an emphasis on the emergence of the two aspects of the former: episodic memory (the ability to re-experience a past event) and episodic future thinking (the ability to pre-experience a future event). Three-, 4-, and 5-year olds were randomly assigned to one of…

The Effects of Spatial Contextual Familiarity on Remembered Scenes, Episodic Memories, and Imagined Future Events

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Robin, Jessica; Moscovitch, Morris

2014-01-01

Several recent studies have explored the effect of contextual familiarity on remembered and imagined events. The aim of this study was to examine the extent of this effect by comparing the effect of cuing spatial memories, episodic memories, and imagined future events with spatial contextual cues of varying levels of familiarity. We used…

Getting What You Expect? Future Self-Views Predict the Valence of Life Events

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Voss, Peggy; Kornadt, Anna E.; Rothermund, Klaus

2017-01-01

Views on aging have been shown to predict the occurrence of events related to physical health in previous studies. Extending these findings, we investigated the relation between aging-related future self-views and life events in a longitudinal study across a range of different life domains. Participants (N = 593, age range 30-80 years at…

The UT 7/8 February 2013 Sila-Nunam Mutual Event and Future Predictions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Benecchi, S. D.; Noll, K. S.; Thirouin, A.; Ryan, E.; Grundy, W. M.; Verbiscer, A.; Doressoundiram, A.; Hestroffer, D.; Beaton, R.; Rabinowitz, D.;

Information-Theoretic Properties of Auditory Sequences Dynamically Influence Expectation and Memory

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Agres, Kat; Abdallah, Samer; Pearce, Marcus

2018-01-01

A basic function of cognition is to detect regularities in sensory input to facilitate the prediction and recognition of future events. It has been proposed that these implicit expectations arise from an internal predictive coding model, based on knowledge acquired through processes such as statistical learning, but it is unclear how different…

Development of a Low-Cost and High-speed Single Event Effects Testers based on Reconfigurable Field Programmable Gate Arrays (FPGA)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Howard, J. W.; Kim, H.; Berg, M.; LaBel, K. A.; Stansberry, S.; Friendlich, M.; Irwin, T.

2006-01-01

A viewgraph presentation on the development of a low cost, high speed tester reconfigurable Field Programmable Gata Array (FPGA) is shown. The topics include: 1) Introduction; 2) Objectives; 3) Tester Descriptions; 4) Tester Validations and Demonstrations; 5) Future Work; and 6) Summary.

Benefits of Career Development Events as Perceived by School-Based, Agricultural Education Teachers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lundry, Jerrod; Ramsey, Jon W.; Edwards, M. Craig; Robinson, J. Shane

2015-01-01

Agriculture is the nation's largest employer with more than 24 million people working in some phase of the agricultural industry; however, the knowledge and skills needed in today's agricultural industry are lacking. Assuring future generations are agriculturally literate and taught the significance of agriculture is crucial. Systematic delivery…

A unified probabilistic approach to improve spelling in an event-related potential-based brain-computer interface.

PubMed

Kindermans, Pieter-Jan; Verschore, Hannes; Schrauwen, Benjamin

2013-10-01

In recent years, in an attempt to maximize performance, machine learning approaches for event-related potential (ERP) spelling have become more and more complex. In this paper, we have taken a step back as we wanted to improve the performance without building an overly complex model, that cannot be used by the community. Our research resulted in a unified probabilistic model for ERP spelling, which is based on only three assumptions and incorporates language information. On top of that, the probabilistic nature of our classifier yields a natural dynamic stopping strategy. Furthermore, our method uses the same parameters across 25 subjects from three different datasets. We show that our classifier, when enhanced with language models and dynamic stopping, improves the spelling speed and accuracy drastically. Additionally, we would like to point out that as our model is entirely probabilistic, it can easily be used as the foundation for complex systems in future work. All our experiments are executed on publicly available datasets to allow for future comparison with similar techniques.

Tsunami evacuation plans for future megathrust earthquakes in Padang, Indonesia, considering stochastic earthquake scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muhammad, Ario; Goda, Katsuichiro; Alexander, Nicholas A.; Kongko, Widjo; Muhari, Abdul

2017-12-01

This study develops tsunami evacuation plans in Padang, Indonesia, using a stochastic tsunami simulation method. The stochastic results are based on multiple earthquake scenarios for different magnitudes (Mw 8.5, 8.75, and 9.0) that reflect asperity characteristics of the 1797 historical event in the same region. The generation of the earthquake scenarios involves probabilistic models of earthquake source parameters and stochastic synthesis of earthquake slip distributions. In total, 300 source models are generated to produce comprehensive tsunami evacuation plans in Padang. The tsunami hazard assessment results show that Padang may face significant tsunamis causing the maximum tsunami inundation height and depth of 15 and 10 m, respectively. A comprehensive tsunami evacuation plan - including horizontal evacuation area maps, assessment of temporary shelters considering the impact due to ground shaking and tsunami, and integrated horizontal-vertical evacuation time maps - has been developed based on the stochastic tsunami simulation results. The developed evacuation plans highlight that comprehensive mitigation policies can be produced from the stochastic tsunami simulation for future tsunamigenic events.

Water shortages and extreme events: a call for research.

PubMed

Carmichael, Catriona; Odams, Sue; Murray, Virginia; Sellick, Matthew; Colbourne, Jeni

2013-09-01

Water shortages as a result of extreme weather events, such as flooding and severe cold, have the potential to affect significant numbers of people. Therefore, the need to build robust, coordinated plans based on scientific evidence is crucial. The literature review outlined in this short communication was conducted as part of a joint Drinking Water Inspectorate and Health Protection Agency (now Public Health England) report which aimed to review the scientific evidence base on extreme events, water shortages and the resulting health impacts. A systematic literature review was undertaken to identify published literature from both peer-reviewed and grey literature sources. The retrieved literature was then assessed using the Scottish Intercollegiate Guidelines Network quality assessment. The authors found very few scientific studies. However, a great deal of valuable grey literature was retrieved and used by the research team. In total, six main themes of importance that were identified by the review and discussed included health impacts, water quantity and quality, alternative supplies, vulnerable groups, communication with those affected and the emergency response. The authors conclude that more research needs to be conducted on health impacts and extreme events water shortages in order to build the future knowledge base and development of resilience.

Heterogeneous but “Standard” Coding Systems for Adverse Events: Issues in Achieving Interoperability between Apples and Oranges

PubMed Central

Richesson, Rachel L.; Fung, Kin Wah; Krischer, Jeffrey P.

2008-01-01

Monitoring adverse events (AEs) is an important part of clinical research and a crucial target for data standards. The representation of adverse events themselves requires the use of controlled vocabularies with thousands of needed clinical concepts. Several data standards for adverse events currently exist, each with a strong user base. The structure and features of these current adverse event data standards (including terminologies and classifications) are different, so comparisons and evaluations are not straightforward, nor are strategies for their harmonization. Three different data standards - the Medical Dictionary for Regulatory Activities (MedDRA) and the Systematized Nomenclature of Medicine Clinical Terms (SNOMED CT) terminologies, and Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events (CTCAE) classification - are explored as candidate representations for AEs. This paper describes the structural features of each coding system, their content and relationship to the Unified Medical Language System (UMLS), and unsettled issues for future interoperability of these standards. PMID:18406213

Experimental Seismic Event-screening Criteria at the Prototype International Data Center

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fisk, M. D.; Jepsen, D.; Murphy, J. R.

- Experimental seismic event-screening capabilities are described, based on the difference of body-and surface-wave magnitudes (denoted as Ms:mb) and event depth. These capabilities have been implemented and tested at the prototype International Data Center (PIDC), based on recommendations by the IDC Technical Experts on Event Screening in June 1998. Screening scores are presented that indicate numerically the degree to which an event meets, or does not meet, the Ms:mb and depth screening criteria. Seismic events are also categorized as onshore, offshore, or mixed, based on their 90% location error ellipses and an onshore/offshore grid with five-minute resolution, although this analysis is not used at this time to screen out events.Results are presented of applications to almost 42,000 events with mb>=3.5 in the PIDC Standard Event Bulletin (SEB) and to 121 underground nuclear explosions (UNE's) at the U.S. Nevada Test Site (NTS), the Semipalatinsk and Novaya Zemlya test sites in the Former Soviet Union, the Lop Nor test site in China, and the Indian, Pakistan, and French Polynesian test sites. The screening criteria appear to be quite conservative. None of the known UNE's are screened out, while about 41 percent of the presumed earthquakes in the SEB with mb>=3.5 are screened out. UNE's at the Lop Nor, Indian, and Pakistan test sites on 8 June 1996, 11 May 1998, and 28 May 1998, respectively, have among the lowest Ms:mb scores of all events in the SEB.To assess the validity of the depth screening results, comparisons are presented of SEB depth solutions to those in other bulletins that are presumed to be reliable and independent. Using over 1600 events, the comparisons indicate that the SEB depth confidence intervals are consistent with or shallower than over 99.8 percent of the corresponding depth estimates in the other bulletins. Concluding remarks are provided regarding the performance of the experimental event-screening criteria, and plans for future improvements, based on recent recommendations by the IDC Technical Experts on Event Screening in May 1999.

Do Potential Past and Future Events Activate the Left-Right Mental Timeline?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Aguirre, Roberto; Santiago, Julio

2017-01-01

Current evidence provides support for the idea that time is mentally represented by spatial means, i.e., a left-right mental timeline. However, available studies have tested only factual events, i.e., those which have occurred in the past or can be predicted to occur in the future. In the present study we tested whether past and future potential…

Development of a TES-Based Anti-Coincidence Detector for Future X-Ray Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bailey, Catherine N.; Adams, J. S.; Bandler, S. R.; Eckart, M. E.; Ewin, A. J.; Finkbeiner, F. M.; Kelley, R. L.; Kilbourne, C. A.; Porter, F. S.; Sadleir, J. E.;

Development of a TES-Based Anti-Coincidence Detector for Future X-ray Observatories

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bailey, Catherine

2011-01-01

Microcalorimeters onboard future x-ray observatories require an anti-coincidence detector to remove environmental backgrounds. In order to most effectively integrate this anticoincidence detector with the main microcalorimeter array, both instruments should use similar read-out technology. The detectors used in the Cryogenic Dark Matter Search (CDMS) use a phonon measurement technique that is well suited for an anti-coincidence detector with a microcalorimeter array using SQUID readout. This technique works by using a transition-edge sensor (TES) connected to superconducting collection fins to measure the athermal phonon signal produced when an event occurs in the substrate crystal. Energy from the event propagates through the crystal to the superconducting collection fins, creating quasiparticles, which are then trapped as they enter the TES where they produce a signal. We are currently developing a prototype anti-coincidence detector for future x-ray missions and have recently fabricated test devices with Mo/Au TESs and Al collection fins. We will present results from the first tests of these devices which indicate a proof of concept that quasiparticle trapping is occurring in these materials.

Developing a Global Database of Historic Flood Events to Support Machine Learning Flood Prediction in Google Earth Engine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tellman, B.; Sullivan, J.; Kettner, A.; Brakenridge, G. R.; Slayback, D. A.; Kuhn, C.; Doyle, C.

2016-12-01

There is an increasing need to understand flood vulnerability as the societal and economic effects of flooding increases. Risk models from insurance companies and flood models from hydrologists must be calibrated based on flood observations in order to make future predictions that can improve planning and help societies reduce future disasters. Specifically, to improve these models both traditional methods of flood prediction from physically based models as well as data-driven techniques, such as machine learning, require spatial flood observation to validate model outputs and quantify uncertainty. A key dataset that is missing for flood model validation is a global historical geo-database of flood event extents. Currently, the most advanced database of historical flood extent is hosted and maintained at the Dartmouth Flood Observatory (DFO) that has catalogued 4320 floods (1985-2015) but has only mapped 5% of these floods. We are addressing this data gap by mapping the inventory of floods in the DFO database to create a first-of- its-kind, comprehensive, global and historical geospatial database of flood events. To do so, we combine water detection algorithms on MODIS and Landsat 5,7 and 8 imagery in Google Earth Engine to map discrete flood events. The created database will be available in the Earth Engine Catalogue for download by country, region, or time period. This dataset can be leveraged for new data-driven hydrologic modeling using machine learning algorithms in Earth Engine's highly parallelized computing environment, and we will show examples for New York and Senegal.

Yielding to desire: the durability of affective preferences.

PubMed

Rapp, David N; Jacovina, Matthew E; Slaten, Daniel G; Krause, Elise

2014-09-01

People's expectations about the future are guided not just by the contingencies of situations but also by what they hope or wish will happen next. These preferences can inform predictions that run counter to what should or must occur based on the logic of unfolding events. Effects of this type have been regularly identified in studies of judgment and decision making, with individuals' choices often reflecting emotional rather than rational influences. Encouraging individuals to rely less on their emotional considerations has proven a challenge as affective responses are generated quickly and are seemingly informative for decisions. In 6 experiments we examined whether individuals could be encouraged to rely less on their affective preferences when making judgments about future events. Participants read stories in which contexts informed the likelihood of events in ways that might run counter to their preferential investments in particular outcomes. While being less than relevant given the logic of events, participants' affective considerations remained influential despite time allotted for predictive reflection. In contrast, instructional warnings helped attenuate the influence of affective considerations, even under conditions previously shown to encourage preferential biases. The findings are discussed with respect to factors that mediate preference effects, and highlight challenges for overcoming people's reliance on affective contributors to everyday judgments and comprehension.

Learning predictive statistics from temporal sequences: Dynamics and strategies

PubMed Central

Wang, Rui; Shen, Yuan; Tino, Peter; Welchman, Andrew E.; Kourtzi, Zoe

2017-01-01

Human behavior is guided by our expectations about the future. Often, we make predictions by monitoring how event sequences unfold, even though such sequences may appear incomprehensible. Event structures in the natural environment typically vary in complexity, from simple repetition to complex probabilistic combinations. How do we learn these structures? Here we investigate the dynamics of structure learning by tracking human responses to temporal sequences that change in structure unbeknownst to the participants. Participants were asked to predict the upcoming item following a probabilistic sequence of symbols. Using a Markov process, we created a family of sequences, from simple frequency statistics (e.g., some symbols are more probable than others) to context-based statistics (e.g., symbol probability is contingent on preceding symbols). We demonstrate the dynamics with which individuals adapt to changes in the environment's statistics—that is, they extract the behaviorally relevant structures to make predictions about upcoming events. Further, we show that this structure learning relates to individual decision strategy; faster learning of complex structures relates to selection of the most probable outcome in a given context (maximizing) rather than matching of the exact sequence statistics. Our findings provide evidence for alternate routes to learning of behaviorally relevant statistics that facilitate our ability to predict future events in variable environments. PMID:28973111

Learning predictive statistics from temporal sequences: Dynamics and strategies.

PubMed

Wang, Rui; Shen, Yuan; Tino, Peter; Welchman, Andrew E; Kourtzi, Zoe

2017-10-01

Human behavior is guided by our expectations about the future. Often, we make predictions by monitoring how event sequences unfold, even though such sequences may appear incomprehensible. Event structures in the natural environment typically vary in complexity, from simple repetition to complex probabilistic combinations. How do we learn these structures? Here we investigate the dynamics of structure learning by tracking human responses to temporal sequences that change in structure unbeknownst to the participants. Participants were asked to predict the upcoming item following a probabilistic sequence of symbols. Using a Markov process, we created a family of sequences, from simple frequency statistics (e.g., some symbols are more probable than others) to context-based statistics (e.g., symbol probability is contingent on preceding symbols). We demonstrate the dynamics with which individuals adapt to changes in the environment's statistics-that is, they extract the behaviorally relevant structures to make predictions about upcoming events. Further, we show that this structure learning relates to individual decision strategy; faster learning of complex structures relates to selection of the most probable outcome in a given context (maximizing) rather than matching of the exact sequence statistics. Our findings provide evidence for alternate routes to learning of behaviorally relevant statistics that facilitate our ability to predict future events in variable environments.

Mechanisms of remembering the past and imagining the future--new data from autobiographical memory tasks in a lifespan approach.

PubMed

Abram, M; Picard, L; Navarro, B; Piolino, P

2014-10-01

We investigated the episodic/semantic distinction in remembering the past and imagining the future and explored cognitive mechanisms predicting events' specificity throughout the lifespan. Eighty-three 6- to 81-year-old participants, divided into 5 age groups, underwent past, present and future episodic (events' evocation) and semantic (self-descriptions) autobiographical tasks and a complementary cognitive test battery (executive functions, working and episodic memory). The main results showed age effects on episodic events' evocation indicating an inverted U function (i.e., developmental progression from 6 to 21years and aging decline). By contrast, age effects were slighter on self-descriptions while self-defining events' evocation increased with age. Furthermore, age effects on episodic events' evocation were mainly mediated by age effects on cognitive functions and personal semantics. These new findings indicate a developmental and aging episodic/semantic distinction for both remembering the past and imagining the future, and suggest that above similarities, these abilities could have a fundamentally different basis. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Cognitive correlates of anxious and depressive symptomatology: an examination of the Helplessness/Hopelessness model.

PubMed

Waikar, S V; Craske, M G

1997-01-01

Expectancies about future life events were assessed in anxious and depressed patients to test predictions of the Helplessness/Hopelessness model of anxiety and depression (Alloy, Kelly, Mineka, & Clements, 1990). In addition to expectancies for future events, patients from affective and anxiety treatment clinics completed anxiety and depression symptom ratings and positive and negative affects scales. Findings revealed partial support for the model. Negative outcome and helplessness expectancies were related specifically to depression. Cognitions regarding future positive events were interrelated and associated with symptom measures more strongly than were cognitions regarding negative events. Additionally, positive affects was more strongly related to depression than to anxiety symptom ratings. Implications and limitations of these findings are discussed.

Causes and implications of the unforeseen 2016 extreme yield loss in the breadbasket of France.

PubMed

Ben-Ari, Tamara; Boé, Julien; Ciais, Philippe; Lecerf, Remi; Van der Velde, Marijn; Makowski, David

2018-04-24

In 2016, France, one of the leading wheat-producing and wheat-exporting regions in the world suffered its most extreme yield loss in over half a century. Yet, yield forecasting systems failed to anticipate this event. We show that this unprecedented event is a new type of compound extreme with a conjunction of abnormally warm temperatures in late autumn and abnormally wet conditions in the following spring. A binomial logistic regression accounting for fall and spring conditions is able to capture key yield loss events since 1959. Based on climate projections, we show that the conditions that led to the 2016 wheat yield loss are projected to become more frequent in the future. The increased likelihood of such compound extreme events poses a challenge: farming systems and yield forecasting systems, which often support them, must adapt.

Possibilities of the forecast of generation of the high energy solar protons for the safety of Mars mission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Avakyan, S. V.; Gaponov, V. A.; Nicol'skii, G. A.; Solov'ev, A. A.

2017-06-01

During interplanetary flight, after large solar flares, astronauts are subject to the impact of relativistic solar protons. These particles produce an especially strong effect during extravehicular activity or landing on Mars (in the future). The relativistic protons reach the orbits of the Earth and Mars with a delay of several hours relative to solar X-rays and UV radiation. In this paper, we discuss a new opportunity to predict the most dangerous events caused by Solar Cosmic Rays with protons of maximum (relativistic) energy, known in the of solar-terrestrial physics asGround Level Enhancements or Ground Level Events (GLEs). This new capability is based on a close relationship between the dangerous events and decrease ofTotal Solar Irradiance (TSI)which precedes these events. This important relationship is revealed for the first time.

Psychological first aid following trauma: implementation and evaluation framework for high-risk organizations.

PubMed

Forbes, David; Lewis, Virginia; Varker, Tracey; Phelps, Andrea; O'Donnell, Meaghan; Wade, Darryl J; Ruzek, Josef I; Watson, Patricia; Bryant, Richard A; Creamer, Mark

2011-01-01

International clinical practice guidelines for the management of psychological trauma recommend Psychological First Aid (PFA) as an early intervention for survivors of potentially traumatic events. These recommendations are consensus-based, and there is little published evidence assessing the effectiveness of PFA. This is not surprising given the nature of the intervention and the complicating factors involved in any evaluation of PFA. There is, nevertheless, an urgent need for stronger evidence evaluating its effectiveness. The current paper posits that the implementation and evaluation of PFA within high risk organizational settings is an ideal place to start. The paper provides a framework for a phasic approach to implementing PFA within such settings and presents a model for evaluating its effectiveness using a logic- or theory-based approach which considers both pre-event and post-event factors. Phases 1 and 2 of the PFA model are pre-event actions, and phases 3 and 4 are post-event actions. It is hoped that by using the Phased PFA model and evaluation method proposed in this paper, future researchers will begin to undertake the important task of building the evidence about the most effective approach to providing PFA in high risk organizational and community disaster settings.

Linking disaster resilience and urban sustainability: a glocal approach for future cities.

PubMed

Asprone, Domenico; Manfredi, Gaetano

2015-01-01

Resilience and sustainability will be two primary objectives of future cities. The violent consequences of extreme natural events and the environmental, social and economic burden of contemporary cities make the concepts of resilience and sustainability extremely relevant. In this paper we analyse the various definitions of resilience and sustainability applied to urban systems and propose a synthesis, based on similarities between the two concepts. According to the proposed approach, catastrophic events and the subsequent transformations occurring in urban systems represent a moment in the city life cycle to be seen in terms of the complex sustainability framework. Hence, resilience is seen as a requirement for urban system sustainability. In addition, resilience should be evaluated not only for single cities, with their physical and social systems, but also on a global scale, taking into account the complex and dynamic relationships connecting contemporary cities. © 2014 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2014.

Climate-change driven increase in high intensity rainfall events: Analysis of development in the last decades and towards an extrapolation of future progression

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Müller, Eva; Pfister, Angela; Gerd, Büger; Maik, Heistermann; Bronstert, Axel

2015-04-01

Hydrological extreme events can be triggered by rainfall on different spatiotemporal scales: river floods are typically caused by event durations of between hours and days, while urban flash floods as well as soil erosion or contaminant transport rather result from storms events of very short duration (minutes). Still, the analysis of climate change impacts on rainfall-induced extreme events is usually carried out using daily precipitation data at best. Trend analyses of extreme rainfall at sub-daily or even sub-hourly time scales are rare. In this contribution two lines of research are combined: first, we analyse sub-hourly rainfall data for several decades in three European regions.Second, we investigate the scaling behaviour of heavy short-term precipitation with temperature, i.e. the dependence of high intensity rainfall on the atmospheric temperature at that particular time and location. The trend analysis of high-resolution rainfall data shows for the first time that the frequency of short and intensive storm events in the temperate lowland regions in Germany has increased by up to 0.5 events per year over the last decades. I.e. this trend suggests that the occurrence of these types of storms have multiplied over only a few decades. Parallel to the changes in the rainfall regime, increases in the annual and seasonal average temperature and changes in the occurrence of circulation patterns responsible for the generation of high-intensity storms have been found. The analysis of temporally highly resolved rainfall records from three European regions further indicates that extreme precipitation events are more intense with warmer temperatures during the rainfall event. These observations follow partly the Clausius-Clapeyron relation. Based on this relation one may derive a general rule of maximum rainfall intensity associated to the event temperature, roughly following the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) relation. This rule might be used for scenarios of future maximum rainfall intensities under a warming climate.

Changing time and emotions

PubMed Central

Geoffard, Pierre-Yves; Luchini, Stéphane

2010-01-01

In this paper, we consider that our experience of time (to come) depends on the emotions we feel when we imagine future pleasant or unpleasant events. A positive emotion such as relief or joy associated with a pleasant event that will happen in the future induces impatience. Impatience, in our context, implies that the experience of time up to the forthcoming event expands. A negative emotion such as grief or frustration associated with an unpleasant event that will happen in the future triggers anxiety. This will give the experience of time contraction. Time, therefore, is not exogeneously given to the individual and emotions, which link together events or situations, are a constitutive ingredient of the experience of time. Our theory can explain experimental evidence that people tend to prefer to perform painful actions earlier than pleasurable ones, contrary to the predictions yielded by the standard exponential discounting framework. PMID:20026465

Lessons learnt from past Flash Floods and Debris Flow events to propose future strategies on risk management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cabello, Angels; Velasco, Marc; Escaler, Isabel

2010-05-01

Floods, including flash floods and debris flow events, are one of the most important hazards in Europe regarding both economic and life loss. Moreover, changes in precipitation patterns and intensity are very likely to increase due to the observed and predicted global warming, rising the risk in areas that are already vulnerable to floods. Therefore, it is very important to carry out new strategies to improve flood protection, but it is also crucial to take into account historical data to identify high risk areas. The main objective of this paper is to show a comparative analysis of the flood risk management information compiled in four test-bed basins (Llobregat, Guadalhorce, Gardon d'Anduze and Linth basins) from three different European countries (Spain, France and Switzerland) and to identify which are the lessons learnt from their past experiences in order to propose future strategies on risk management. This work is part of the EU 7th FP project IMPRINTS which aims at reducing loss of life and economic damage through the improvement of the preparedness and the operational risk management of flash flood and debris flow (FF & DF) events. The methodology followed includes the following steps: o Specific survey on the effectivity of the implemented emergency plans and risk management procedures sent to the test-bed basin authorities that participate in the project o Analysis of the answers from the questionnaire and further research on their methodologies for risk evaluation o Compilation of available follow-up studies carried out after major flood events in the four test-bed basins analyzed o Collection of the lessons learnt through a comparative analysis of the previous information o Recommendations for future strategies on risk management based on lessons learnt and management gaps detected through the process As the Floods Directive (FD) already states, the flood risks associated to FF & DF events should be assessed through the elaboration of Flood Risk Management Plans (FRMP) with tailored solutions for each basin, evaluating their flood mitigation potential, promoting environmental objectives and increasing the efficiency of the already adopted measures. The FRMP should focus on prevention (and protection), preparedness and response, and these have been the three main risk management phases of a flood crisis that have been assessed when extracting the lessons learnt from past events. Lessons learnt concerning dissemination through the three previously mentioned phases and also related to education initiatives have also been included. A common response to most of the events described in this paper was to upgrade the meteorological and hydrological forecasting systems, making the forecasting lead-time as large as possible. Another common recommendation from the test-beds was the need to implement and accomplish the land use regulations. All the basins also detected that structural measures are necessary to increase the population's protection level, but replacing the traditional safety mentality by a risk culture based on a comprehensive analysis of the flood risk. The four basins studied have also highlighted the importance of collecting information when FF & DF events occur and creating historic databases that will provide extremely useful information in the future.

The Development of Future Orientation is Associated with Faster Decline in Hopelessness during Adolescence.

PubMed

Mac Giollabhui, Naoise; Nielsen, Johanna; Seidman, Sam; Olino, Thomas M; Abramson, Lyn Y; Alloy, Lauren B

2018-01-05

Hopelessness is implicated in multiple psychological disorders. Little is known, however, about the trajectory of hopelessness during adolescence or how emergent future orientation may influence its trajectory. Parallel process latent growth curve modelling tested whether (i) trajectories of future orientation and hopelessness and (ii) within-individual change in future orientation and hopelessness were related. The study was comprised of 472 adolescents [52% female, 47% Caucasian, 47% received free lunch] recruited at ages 12-13 who completed measures of future orientation and hopelessness at five annual assessments. The results indicate that a general decline in hopelessness across adolescence occurs quicker for those experiencing faster development of future orientation, when controlling for age, sex, low socio-economic status in addition to stressful life events in childhood and adolescence. Stressful childhood life events were associated with worse future orientation at baseline and negative life events experienced during adolescence were associated with both an increase in the trajectory of hopelessness as well as a decrease in the trajectory of future orientation. This study provides compelling evidence that the development of future orientation during adolescence is associated with a faster decline in hopelessness.

Rain-on-snow events, floods and climate change in the Alps: Events may increase with warming up to 4°C and decrease thereafter.

PubMed

Beniston, Martin; Stoffel, Markus

2016-11-15

This paper focuses on the influence of mountain rain-on-snow (ROS) events that can on occasion trigger major floods in alpine catchments. In order to assess the evolution of these events in a recent past, and the potential changes that could be experienced in a changing climate over coming decades, we have focused on a small catchment in north-eastern Switzerland, the Sitter, well-endowed with both climate and hydrological data. Observations show that there has been an increase in the number of rain-on-snow events since the early 1960s related to the rise in atmospheric temperatures. Results from a simple temperature-based snow model show that the number of ROS events could increase by close to 50% with temperatures 2-4°C warmer than today, before declining when temperatures go beyond 4°C. The likelihood of more ROS events suggests that the risks of flooding in a future climate may indeed get worse before they improve. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Projecting adverse event incidence rates using empirical Bayes methodology.

PubMed

Ma, Guoguang Julie; Ganju, Jitendra; Huang, Jing

2016-08-01

Although there is considerable interest in adverse events observed in clinical trials, projecting adverse event incidence rates in an extended period can be of interest when the trial duration is limited compared to clinical practice. A naïve method for making projections might involve modeling the observed rates into the future for each adverse event. However, such an approach overlooks the information that can be borrowed across all the adverse event data. We propose a method that weights each projection using a shrinkage factor; the adverse event-specific shrinkage is a probability, based on empirical Bayes methodology, estimated from all the adverse event data, reflecting evidence in support of the null or non-null hypotheses. Also proposed is a technique to estimate the proportion of true nulls, called the common area under the density curves, which is a critical step in arriving at the shrinkage factor. The performance of the method is evaluated by projecting from interim data and then comparing the projected results with observed results. The method is illustrated on two data sets. © The Author(s) 2013.

LEGEND, a LEO-to-GEO Environment Debris Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liou, Jer Chyi; Hall, Doyle T.

2013-01-01

LEGEND (LEO-to-GEO Environment Debris model) is a three-dimensional orbital debris evolutionary model that is capable of simulating the historical and future debris populations in the near-Earth environment. The historical component in LEGEND adopts a deterministic approach to mimic the known historical populations. Launched rocket bodies, spacecraft, and mission-related debris (rings, bolts, etc.) are added to the simulated environment. Known historical breakup events are reproduced, and fragments down to 1 mm in size are created. The LEGEND future projection component adopts a Monte Carlo approach and uses an innovative pair-wise collision probability evaluation algorithm to simulate the future breakups and the growth of the debris populations. This algorithm is based on a new "random sampling in time" approach that preserves characteristics of the traditional approach and captures the rapidly changing nature of the orbital debris environment. LEGEND is a Fortran 90-based numerical simulation program. It operates in a UNIX/Linux environment.

Preliminary identification of potentially disruptive scenarios at the Greater Confinement Disposal Facility, Area 5 of the Nevada Test Site

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Guzowski, R.V.; Newman, G.

1993-12-01

The Greater Confinement Disposal location is being evaluated to determine whether defense-generated transuranic waste buried at this location complies with the Containment Requirements established by the US Environmental Protection Agency. One step in determining compliance is to identify those combinations of events and processes (scenarios) that define possible future states of the disposal system for which performance assessments must be performed. An established scenario-development procedure was used to identify a comprehensive set of mutually exclusive scenarios. To assure completeness, 761 features, events, processes, and other listings (FEPS) were compiled from 11 references. This number was reduced to 205 primarily throughmore » the elimination of duplications. The 205 FEPs were screened based on site-specific, goal-specific, and regulatory criteria. Four events survived screening and were used in preliminary scenario development: (1) exploratory drilling penetrates a GCD borehole, (2) drilling of a withdrawal/injection well penetrates a GCD borehole, (3) subsidence occurs at the RWMS, and (4) irrigation occurs at the RWMS. A logic diagram was used to develop 16 scenarios from the four events. No screening of these scenarios was attempted at this time. Additional screening of the currently retained events and processes will be based on additional data and information from site-characterization activities. When screening of the events and processes is completed, a final set of scenarios will be developed and screened based on consequence and probability of occurrence.« less

Future perspective and healthy lifestyle choices in adulthood.

PubMed

Tasdemir-Ozdes, Aylin; Strickland-Hughes, Carla M; Bluck, Susan; Ebner, Natalie C

2016-09-01

Regardless of age, making healthy lifestyle choices is prudent. Despite that, individuals of all ages sometimes have difficulty choosing the healthy option. We argue that individuals' view of the future and position in the life span affects their current lifestyle choices. We capture the multidimensionality of future thinking by assessing 3 types of future perspective. Younger and older men and women (N = 127) reported global future time perspective, future health perspective, and perceived importance of future health-related events. They also rated their likelihood of making healthy lifestyle choices. As predicted, older participants indicated greater intention to make healthy choices in their current life than did younger participants. Compared to younger participants, older participants reported shorter global future time perspective and anticipated worse future health but perceived future health-related events as more important. Having a positive view of one's future health and seeing future health-related events as important were related to greater intention to make healthy lifestyle choices, but greater global future time perspective was not directly related to healthy choices. However, follow-up analyses suggested that greater global future time perspective indirectly affected healthy choices via a more positive view of future health. None of these relations were moderated by age. Individuals' perspective on the future is shown to be an important multidimensional construct affecting everyday healthy lifestyle choices for both younger and older adults. Implications for encouraging healthy choices across the adult life span are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Climate Change and Dryland Wheat Systems in the US Pacific Northwest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stockle, C.; Karimi, T.; Huggins, D. R.; Nelson, R.

2015-12-01

A regional assessment of historical and future yields, and components of the water, nitrogen, and carbon soil balance of dryland wheat-based cropping systems in the US Pacific Northwest is being conducted (Regional Approaches to Climate Change project funded by USDA-NIFA). All these elements intertwines and are important to understand the future of these systems in the region. A computer simulation methodology was used based on the CropSyst model and historic and projected daily weather data downscaled to a 4x4 km grid including 14 general circulation models (GCMs) and two representative concentration pathways of future atmospheric CO2 (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). The study region was divided in 3 agro-ecological zones (AEZ) based on precipitation amount: low (<300 mm/year), intermediate (300-460 mm/year) and high (>460 mm/year), with a change from crop-fallow, to transition fallow (crop-crop-fallow) to annual cropping, respectively. Typical wheat-based rotations included winter wheat (WW)-Summer fallow (SF) for the low AEZ, WW-spring wheat (SW)-SF for the intermediate AEZ, and WW-SW-spring peas for the high AEZ, all under conventional and no tillage management. Alternative systems incorporating canola were also evaluated. Results suggest that, in most cases, these dryland systems may fare well in the future (31-year periods centered around 2030, 2050, and 2070), with potential gains in productivity. Also, a trend towards increased fallow in the intermediate AEZ appears possible for higher productivity, and the inclusion of less water demanding crops may help sustain cropping intensity. Uncertainties in these projections arise from large discrepancies among climate models regarding the warming rate, compounded by different possible future CO2 emission scenarios, the degree of change in frequency and severity of extreme events and associated potential damages to crop canopies due to cold weather and grain set reduction due to extreme heat events. Furthermore, there is little understanding of the impact of climate change on pests, diseases and weeds that could affect crop production and management costs. Finally, there is also uncertainty on the speed of technological innovation allowing producers to adapt to changing conditions.

The Impact of Future World Events on Iranians’ Social Health: A Qualitative Futurology

PubMed Central

DAMARI, Behzad; HAJIAN, Maryam; MINAEE, Farima; RIAZI-ISFAHANI, Sahand

2016-01-01

Background: Social health is a dimension of health affected and interacts with other dimensions. Considering the rate of world changes, foresighting the influence of future events and possible trends on social health could bring about advantageous information for social policy makers. Methods: This is a qualitative study of futurology with cross impact analysis approach. After studying possible trends and events in future, they were categorized in four domains including population, resources, climate changes, and globalization and 12 groups of events; and they were used to design a questionnaire. It was given to experts and their opinions were collected through depth interviews between May 2013 and Sep 2013. Results: Analysis of experts’ opinions reveals that future trends in four main potential domains may have some positive and more negative impacts on Iranians’ social health. Conclusion: The global “resource challenge” is the most important incoming event, considering to the four domains of global events and its final and potential effects will be the increase of inequalities leading to social threat. Since inequalities are considered the most important risk factor of health in the societies, the solution for dispel the impact of world trends on Iranians’ social health is managing the crisis of inequalities which is started with fore sighting and adopting preventive strategies in all four domains. PMID:27648424

Are habitual overgeneral recollection and prospection maladaptive?

PubMed

Robinaugh, Donald J; Lubin, Rebecca E; Babic, Luka; McNally, Richard J

2013-06-01

Individuals with depression exhibit difficulty retrieving specific memories and imagining specific future events when instructed to do so relative to non-clinical comparison groups. Instead of specific events, depressed individuals frequently retrieve or imagine "overgeneral" memories that span a long period of time or that denote a category of similar events. Recently, Raes, Hermans, Williams, and Eelen (2007) developed a sentence completion procedure (SCEPT) to assess the tendency to recall overgeneral autobiographical memories. They found that specificity on this measure was associated with depression and rumination. We aimed to replicate these findings and to examine the tendency to imagine overgeneral future events. We had 170 subjects complete past (SCEPT) and future-oriented (SCEFT) sentence completion tasks and measures of depression severity, PTSD severity, hopelessness, and repetitive negative thought. Although specificities of past and future events were correlated, neither SCEPT nor SCEFT specificity was negatively associated with depression severity, posttraumatic stress symptoms, repetitive negative thought (RNT), or hopelessness. Our data are cross-sectional, preventing any determination of causality and limiting our assessment of whether specificity is associated with psychological distress following a stressful life event. In addition, we observed poor internal consistency for both the SCEPT and SCEFT. These findings fail to support the hypothesis that overgeneral memory and prospection on these tasks are associated with psychological distress. Copyright © 2012. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Yielding to Desire: The Durability of Affective Preferences

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rapp, David N.; Jacovina, Matthew E.; Slaten, Daniel G.; Krause, Elise

2014-01-01

People's expectations about the future are guided not just by the contingencies of situations but also by what they hope or wish will happen next. These preferences can inform predictions that run counter to what should or must occur based on the logic of unfolding events. Effects of this type have been regularly identified in studies of judgment…

INL Director Discusses the Future for Nuclear Energy in the United States

ScienceCinema

Grossenbacher, John

2018-01-15

Idaho National Laboratory's Director John Grossenbacher explains that the United States should develop its energy policies based on an assessment of the current events at Japan's Fukushima nuclear reactors and the costs and benefits of providing electricity through various energy sources. For more information about INL's nuclear energy research, visit http://www.facebook.com/idahonationallaboratory.

Animals May Not Be Stuck in Time

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zentall, T.R.

2005-01-01

Humans have the ability to mentally travel forward and back in time. They can retrieve vivid memories of past events (episodic memories) and can imagine the future (planning). Although it has been suggested that this is a uniquely human ability, the evidence for subjective time travel in humans is typically based on verbal report and elaboration.…

Turning Points: Priorities for Teacher Education in a Democracy

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Romano, Rosalie M.

2009-01-01

Every generation has its moment, some turning point that will mark its place in the historical record. Such points provide the direction of our history and our future. Turning points are, characteristically, times of turmoil based on a fundamental change in models or events--what Thomas Kuhn called a "paradigm shift." In terms of a democratic…

Working Together for a Healthy Environment: A Guide for Multi-Cultural Community Groups

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

US Environmental Protection Agency, 2007

2007-01-01

As a community-based organization, community leader or activist, individuals are in a unique position to take the lead in raising awareness about resource conservation, good solid waste management, and safeguarding the environment for future generations. This paper is designed to help individuals plan and execute community events that promote the…

Role of the Agricultural Industry and Judging Events in Formation of the Future Farmers of America

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tummons, John D.; Simonsen, Jon C.; Martin, Michael J.

2017-01-01

Early agricultural education included youth judging activities, in which farm boys matched skills with students from neighboring schools. In 1925, students competed in a National Dairy Judging Contest in Indianapolis held specifically for vocational students. Based on the success of this contest, the Federal Board for Vocational Education…

Evidence for an implicit influence of memory on future thinking.

PubMed

Szpunar, Karl K

2010-07-01

The capacity to think about specific events that one might encounter in the future--episodic future thought--involves the flexible (re)organization of memory. The present study demonstrates that implicit processes play an important role here. In two experiments (N = 180), participants were asked to generate a personal event that they expected to plausibly occur in the following week. The content of the participants' responses was biased (i.e., primed) by recent thoughts about a specific category of experiences. For instance, participants who had recently been induced to think about social experiences, in the context of an ostensibly unrelated task, were more likely than nonprimed participants to generate similar events occurring in their immediate future. Importantly, the participants were unaware of this unintentional influence of memory. The theoretical and practical implications of these findings for understanding episodic future thought and its relation to memory are discussed.

Precision Seismic Monitoring of Volcanic Eruptions at Axial Seamount

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Waldhauser, F.; Wilcock, W. S. D.; Tolstoy, M.; Baillard, C.; Tan, Y. J.; Schaff, D. P.

2017-12-01

Seven permanent ocean bottom seismometers of the Ocean Observatories Initiative's real time cabled observatory at Axial Seamount off the coast of the western United States record seismic activity since 2014. The array captured the April 2015 eruption, shedding light on the detailed structure and dynamics of the volcano and the Juan de Fuca midocean ridge system (Wilcock et al., 2016). After a period of continuously increasing seismic activity primarily associated with the reactivation of caldera ring faults, and the subsequent seismic crisis on April 24, 2015 with 7000 recorded events that day, seismicity rates steadily declined and the array currently records an average of 5 events per day. Here we present results from ongoing efforts to automatically detect and precisely locate seismic events at Axial in real-time, providing the computational framework and fundamental data that will allow rapid characterization and analysis of spatio-temporal changes in seismogenic properties. We combine a kurtosis-based P- and S-phase onset picker and time domain cross-correlation detection and phase delay timing algorithms together with single-event and double-difference location methods to rapidly and precisely (tens of meters) compute the location and magnitudes of new events with respect to a 2-year long, high-resolution background catalog that includes nearly 100,000 events within a 5×5 km region. We extend the real-time double-difference location software DD-RT to efficiently handle the anticipated high-rate and high-density earthquake activity during future eruptions. The modular monitoring framework will allow real-time tracking of other seismic events such as tremors and sea-floor lava explosions that enable the timing and location of lava flows and thus guide response research cruises to the most interesting sites. Finally, rapid detection of eruption precursors and initiation will allow for adaptive sampling by the OOI instruments for optimal recording of future eruptions. With a higher eruption recurrence rate than land-based volcanoes the Axial OOI observatory offers the opportunity to monitor and study volcanic eruptions throughout multiple cycles.

Impact Assessments and Projections in Microclimates: Working with End-Users

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Outten, S.; Wolf, T.

2015-12-01

Local impacts of meteorological events are often shaped by the microclimates in which they occur and only by including understanding of these microclimates can robust assessments and projections of such events be made. However, co-production of knowledge with end users is also required in order to make the assessments useful for decision makers and for society as a whole. This work presents two studies working with end users around the European city of Bergen, Norway. The first study is on extreme winds assessment for larger-scale construction. While such an assessment is usually based on historical observations when the climate was more stationary, under a changing climate, infrastructure built to last for the next fifty years or more may experience events not seen in the observational period. The case study is presented for the newly completed Hardanger Bridge in Norway and demonstrates a novel method for incorporating estimates of future changes in extreme winds into the design process (figure 1). Given the close collaboration with the engineers involved in the bridge's construction, the method was tailored to fit with existing practices and standards. The second study focuses on air pollution events within the city that are favoured by persistent wintertime temperature inversions in the narrow Bergen valley. Using a temperature profile radiometer, these temperature inversions have been characterized and related to the local circulation in- and above the valley. There has been the assumption that the many large ships in Bergen harbour had a major contribution to high pollution events within the city. Results from this study however indicate that temperature inversions are mostly connected to down-valley winds. These should remove the ship-emissions from the city, giving the ships a much smaller impact on high air pollution events than previously assumed, something that is under further evaluation and of high interest for the local harbour authority. Figure 1. Extreme wind speed distributions at the Utsira meteorological station from observations (black), with future estimates based on multiple regional climate models (red and blue). Vertical lines indicate the 50-year return event.

Understanding London's Water Supply Tradeoffs When Scheduling Interventions Under Deep Uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huskova, I.; Matrosov, E. S.; Harou, J. J.; Kasprzyk, J. R.; Reed, P. M.

2015-12-01

Water supply planning in many major world cities faces several challenges associated with but not limited to climate change, population growth and insufficient land availability for infrastructure development. Long-term plans to maintain supply-demand balance and ecosystem services require careful consideration of uncertainties associated with future conditions. The current approach for London's water supply planning utilizes least cost optimization of future intervention schedules with limited uncertainty consideration. Recently, the focus of the long-term plans has shifted from solely least cost performance to robustness and resilience of the system. Identifying robust scheduling of interventions requires optimizing over a statistically representative sample of stochastic inputs which may be computationally difficult to achieve. In this study we optimize schedules using an ensemble of plausible scenarios and assess how manipulating that ensemble influences the different Pareto-approximate intervention schedules. We investigate how a major stress event's location in time as well as the optimization problem formulation influence the Pareto-approximate schedules. A bootstrapping method that respects the non-stationary trend of climate change scenarios and ensures the even distribution of the major stress event in the scenario ensemble is proposed. Different bootstrapped hydrological scenario ensembles are assessed using many-objective scenario optimization of London's future water supply and demand intervention scheduling. However, such a "fixed" scheduling of interventions approach does not aim to embed flexibility or adapt effectively as the future unfolds. Alternatively, making decisions based on the observations of occurred conditions could help planners who prefer adaptive planning. We will show how rules to guide the implementation of interventions based on observations may result in more flexible strategies.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Henderson, C. B.; Gould, A.; Gaudi, B. S.

The mass of the lenses giving rise to Galactic microlensing events can be constrained by measuring the relative lens-source proper motion and lens flux. The flux of the lens can be separated from that of the source, companions to the source, and unrelated nearby stars with high-resolution images taken when the lens and source are spatially resolved. For typical ground-based adaptive optics (AO) or space-based observations, this requires either inordinately long time baselines or high relative proper motions. We provide a list of microlensing events toward the Galactic bulge with high relative lens-source proper motion that are therefore good candidatesmore » for constraining the lens mass with future high-resolution imaging. We investigate all events from 2004 to 2013 that display detectable finite-source effects, a feature that allows us to measure the proper motion. In total, we present 20 events with μ ≳ 8 mas yr{sup –1}. Of these, 14 were culled from previous analyses while 6 are new, including OGLE-2004-BLG-368, MOA-2005-BLG-36, OGLE-2012-BLG-0211, OGLE-2012-BLG-0456, MOA-2012-BLG-532, and MOA-2013-BLG-029. In ≲12 yr from the time of each event the lens and source of each event will be sufficiently separated for ground-based telescopes with AO systems or space telescopes to resolve each component and further characterize the lens system. Furthermore, for the most recent events, comparison of the lens flux estimates from images taken immediately to those estimated from images taken when the lens and source are resolved can be used to empirically check the robustness of the single-epoch method currently being used to estimate lens masses for many events.« less

Future Extreme Event Vulnerability in the Rural Northeastern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winter, J.; Bowen, F. L.; Partridge, T.; Chipman, J. W.

2017-12-01

Future climate change impacts on humans will be determined by the convergence of evolving physical climate and socioeconomic systems. Of particular concern is the intersection of extreme events and vulnerable populations. Rural areas of the Northeastern United States have experienced increased temperature and precipitation extremes, especially over the past three decades, and face unique challenges due to their physical isolation, natural resources dependent economies, and high poverty rates. To explore the impacts of future extreme events on vulnerable, rural populations in the Northeast, we project extreme events and vulnerability indicators to identify where changes in extreme events and vulnerable populations coincide. Specifically, we analyze future (2046-2075) maximum annual daily temperature, minimum annual daily temperature, maximum annual daily precipitation, and maximum consecutive dry day length for Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 using four global climate models (GCM) and a gridded observational dataset. We then overlay those projections with estimates of county-level population and relative income for 2060 to calculate changes in person-events from historical (1976-2005), with a focus on Northeast counties that have less than 250,000 people and are in the bottom income quartile. We find that across the rural Northeast for RCP4.5, heat person-events per year increase tenfold, far exceeding decreases in cold person-events and relatively small changes in precipitation and drought person-events. Counties in the bottom income quartile have historically (1976-2005) experienced a disproportionate number of heat events, and counties in the bottom two income quartiles are projected to experience a greater heat event increase by 2046-2075 than counties in the top two income quartiles. We further explore the relative contributions of event frequency, population, and income changes to the total and geographic distribution of climate change impacts on rural, vulnerable areas of the Northeast.

Concreteness of Positive, Negative, and Neutral Repetitive Thinking About the Future

PubMed Central

Behar, Evelyn; McGowan, Sarah Kate; McLaughlin, Katie A.; Borkovec, T.D.; Goldwin, Michelle; Bjorkquist, Olivia

2014-01-01

Consistent with assertions that the adaptiveness of repetitive thinking is influenced by both its valence and style, Stöber (e.g., Stöber & Borkovec, 2002) has argued that worry is characterized by a reduced concreteness of thought content and that the resulting abstractness contributes to its inhibition of some aspects of anxious responding. However, extant research does not provide a direct test of Stöber’s reduced concreteness theory of worry. We sought to test Stöber’s theory and to examine the adaptiveness of repetitive worrisome thinking by randomly assigning 108 participants to engage in five consecutive periods of repetitive thinking about positively, negatively, or neutrally valenced potential future events. Results based on coding of thought data indicated that (a) repetitive thinking became increasingly less concrete as periods progressed; (b) contrary to Stöber’s theory, both negative and positive repetitive future thinking were more concrete than neutral repetitive future thinking (and did not differ from each other); and (c) abstractness of thought during negative repetitive future thinking was associated with reduced reports of imagery-based activity. Results based on self-reported affect indicated that negatively valenced repetitive future thinking was uniquely associated with initial decreases in anxious affect, followed by increased anxious affect that coincided with increased imagery-based activity. This suggests that worry is associated with a sequential mitigation of anxious meaning followed by a strengthening of anxious meaning over time. Theoretical and clinical implications of these findings are discussed. PMID:22440067

Will climate change increase the risk for critical infrastructure failures in Europe due to extreme precipitation?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nissen, Katrin; Ulbrich, Uwe

2016-04-01

An event based detection algorithm for extreme precipitation is applied to a multi-model ensemble of regional climate model simulations. The algorithm determines extent, location, duration and severity of extreme precipitation events. We assume that precipitation in excess of the local present-day 10-year return value will potentially exceed the capacity of the drainage systems that protect critical infrastructure elements. This assumption is based on legislation for the design of drainage systems which is in place in many European countries. Thus, events exceeding the local 10-year return value are detected. In this study we distinguish between sub-daily events (3 hourly) with high precipitation intensities and long-duration events (1-3 days) with high precipitation amounts. The climate change simulations investigated here were conducted within the EURO-CORDEX framework and exhibit a horizontal resolution of approximately 12.5 km. The period between 1971-2100 forced with observed and scenario (RCP 8.5 and RCP 4.5) greenhouse gas concentrations was analysed. Examined are changes in event frequency, event duration and size. The simulations show an increase in the number of extreme precipitation events for the future climate period over most of the area, which is strongest in Northern Europe. Strength and statistical significance of the signal increase with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. This work has been conducted within the EU project RAIN (Risk Analysis of Infrastructure Networks in response to extreme weather).

The Effects of Variations in El Niño and La Niña Patterns on World Food Markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ray, P. A.; Robertson, R.; Zhu, T.; Steinschneider, S.; Brown, C. M.

2014-12-01

The El-Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a variation in the sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean, and corresponding air surface pressure in the tropical western Pacific. During El Niño events (high SST), some global regions are wetter than normal, and others are dryer than normal. The inverse is true of La Niña events. El-Niño events are strongly correlated with drought extent and severity, especially in the Tropics. La Niña events are correlated with drought in other areas, though the global effect is less significant than that of El-Niños. GCM-based studies exploring changes in atmospheric mechanisms suggest that El Niño events may become more frequent in the next century, while those exploring changes in oceanic mechanisms suggest that La-Niñas may become more frequent. Overall, the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report concludes that there is "low confidence" in our ability to project future ENSO patterns. In order to test the effect of changing ENSO patterns on global food production, we have developed a Markov Chain to generate multiple scenarios of ENSO frequency and strength, and explore each generated timeseries using the IMPACT Model, which is designed to examine alternative futures for global food supply, demand, trade, prices, and food security. Results identify the potential consequences of changes in ENSO patterns on global food production and markets.

Intensity - Duration - Frequency Curves for U.S. Cities in a Warming Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ragno, Elisa; AghaKouchak, Amir; Love, Charlotte; Vahedifard, Farshid; Cheng, Linyin; Lima, Carlos

2017-04-01

Current infrastructure design procedures rely on the use of Intensity - Duration - Frequency (IDF) curves retrieved under the assumption of temporal stationarity, meaning that occurrences of extreme events are expected to be time invariant. However, numerous studies have observed more severe extreme events over time. Hence, the stationarity assumption for extreme analysis may not be appropriate in a warming climate. This issue raises concerns regarding the safety and resilience of infrastructures and natural slopes. Here we employ daily precipitation data from historical and projected (RCP 8.5) CMIP5 runs to investigate IDF curves of 14 urban areas across the United States. We first statistically assess changes in precipitation extremes using an energy-based test for equal distributions. Then, through a Bayesian inference approach for stationary and non-stationary extreme value analysis, we provide updated IDF curves based on future climatic model projections. We show that, based on CMIP5 simulations, U.S cities may experience extreme precipitation events up to 20% more intense and twice as frequently, relative to historical records, despite the expectation of unchanged annual mean precipitation.

Saigas on the brink: Multidisciplinary analysis of the factors influencing mass mortality events

PubMed Central

Kock, Richard A.; Orynbayev, Mukhit; Robinson, Sarah; Zuther, Steffen; Singh, Navinder J.; Beauvais, Wendy; Morgan, Eric R.; Kerimbayev, Aslan; Khomenko, Sergei; Martineau, Henny M.; Rystaeva, Rashida; Omarova, Zamira; Wolfs, Sara; Hawotte, Florent; Radoux, Julien; Milner-Gulland, Eleanor J.

2018-01-01

In 2015, more than 200,000 saiga antelopes died in 3 weeks in central Kazakhstan. The proximate cause of death is confirmed as hemorrhagic septicemia caused by the bacterium Pasteurella multocida type B, based on multiple strands of evidence. Statistical modeling suggests that there was unusually high relative humidity and temperature in the days leading up to the mortality event; temperature and humidity anomalies were also observed in two previous similar events in the same region. The modeled influence of environmental covariates is consistent with known drivers of hemorrhagic septicemia. Given the saiga population’s vulnerability to mass mortality and the likely exacerbation of climate-related and environmental stressors in the future, management of risks to population viability such as poaching and viral livestock disease is urgently needed, as well as robust ongoing veterinary surveillance. A multidisciplinary approach is needed to research mass mortality events under rapid environmental change. PMID:29376120

A discrete event simulation tool to support and predict hospital and clinic staffing.

PubMed

DeRienzo, Christopher M; Shaw, Ryan J; Meanor, Phillip; Lada, Emily; Ferranti, Jeffrey; Tanaka, David

2017-06-01

We demonstrate how to develop a simulation tool to help healthcare managers and administrators predict and plan for staffing needs in a hospital neonatal intensive care unit using administrative data. We developed a discrete event simulation model of nursing staff needed in a neonatal intensive care unit and then validated the model against historical data. The process flow was translated into a discrete event simulation model. Results demonstrated that the model can be used to give a respectable estimate of annual admissions, transfers, and deaths based upon two different staffing levels. The discrete event simulation tool model can provide healthcare managers and administrators with (1) a valid method of modeling patient mix, patient acuity, staffing needs, and costs in the present state and (2) a forecast of how changes in a unit's staffing, referral patterns, or patient mix would affect a unit in a future state.

Antecedent influences on behavior disorders.

PubMed Central

Smith, R G; Iwata, B A

1997-01-01

The influence of antecedent events on behavior disorders has been relatively understudied by applied behavior analysts. This lack of research may be due to a focus on consequences as determinants of behavior and a historical disagreement on a conceptual framework for describing and interpreting antecedent variables. We suggest that antecedent influences can be described using terms derived from basic behavioral principles and that their functional properties can be adequately interpreted as discriminative and establishing operations. A set of studies on assessment and treatment of behavior disorders was selected for review based on their relevance to the topic of antecedent events. These studies were categorized as focusing on assessment of antecedent events, antecedent treatments for behavior disorders maintained by either positive or negative reinforcement, and special cases of antecedent events in behavior disorders. Some directions for future research on antecedent influences in the analysis and treatment of behavior disorders are discussed. PMID:9210312

Event and Apparent Horizon Finders for 3 + 1 Numerical Relativity.

PubMed

Thornburg, Jonathan

2007-01-01

Event and apparent horizons are key diagnostics for the presence and properties of black holes. In this article I review numerical algorithms and codes for finding event and apparent horizons in numerically-computed spacetimes, focusing on calculations done using the 3 + 1 ADM formalism. The event horizon of an asymptotically-flat spacetime is the boundary between those events from which a future-pointing null geodesic can reach future null infinity and those events from which no such geodesic exists. The event horizon is a (continuous) null surface in spacetime. The event horizon is defined nonlocally in time : it is a global property of the entire spacetime and must be found in a separate post-processing phase after all (or at least the nonstationary part) of spacetime has been numerically computed. There are three basic algorithms for finding event horizons, based on integrating null geodesics forwards in time, integrating null geodesics backwards in time, and integrating null surfaces backwards in time. The last of these is generally the most efficient and accurate. In contrast to an event horizon, an apparent horizon is defined locally in time in a spacelike slice and depends only on data in that slice, so it can be (and usually is) found during the numerical computation of a spacetime. A marginally outer trapped surface (MOTS) in a slice is a smooth closed 2-surface whose future-pointing outgoing null geodesics have zero expansion Θ. An apparent horizon is then defined as a MOTS not contained in any other MOTS. The MOTS condition is a nonlinear elliptic partial differential equation (PDE) for the surface shape, containing the ADM 3-metric, its spatial derivatives, and the extrinsic curvature as coefficients. Most "apparent horizon" finders actually find MOTSs. There are a large number of apparent horizon finding algorithms, with differing trade-offs between speed, robustness, accuracy, and ease of programming. In axisymmetry, shooting algorithms work well and are fairly easy to program. In slices with no continuous symmetries, spectral integral-iteration algorithms and elliptic-PDE algorithms are fast and accurate, but require good initial guesses to converge. In many cases, Schnetter's "pretracking" algorithm can greatly improve an elliptic-PDE algorithm's robustness. Flow algorithms are generally quite slow but can be very robust in their convergence. Minimization methods are slow and relatively inaccurate in the context of a finite differencing simulation, but in a spectral code they can be relatively faster and more robust.

After the flood is before the next flood - post event review of the Central European Floods of June 2013. Insights, recommendations and next steps for future flood prevention

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Szoenyi, Michael; Mechler, Reinhard; McCallum, Ian

2015-04-01

In early June 2013, severe flooding hit Central and Eastern Europe, causing extensive damage, in particular along the Danube and Elbe main watersheds. The situation was particularly severe in Eastern Germany, Austria, Hungary and the Czech Republic. Based on the Post Event Review Capability (PERC) approach, developed by Zurich Insurance's Flood Resilience Program to provide independent review of large flood events, we examine what has worked well (best practice) and opportunities for further improvement. The PERC overall aims to thoroughly examine aspects of flood resilience, flood risk management and catastrophe intervention in order to help build back better after events and learn for future events. As our research from post event analyses shows a lot of losses are in fact avoidable by taking the right measures pre-event and these measures are economically - efficient with a return of 4 Euro on losses saved for every Euro invested in prevention on average (Wharton/IIASA flood resilience alliance paper on cost benefit analysis, Mechler et al. 2014) and up to 10 Euros for certain countries. For the 2013 flood events we provide analysis on the following aspects and in general identify a number of factors that worked in terms of reducing the loss and risk burden. 1. Understanding risk factors of the Central European Floods 2013 We review the precursors leading up to the floods in June, with an extremely wet May 2013 and an atypical V-b weather pattern that brought immense precipitation in a very short period to the watersheds of Elbe, Donau and partially the Rhine in the D-A-CH countries and researched what happened during the flood and why. Key questions we asked revolve around which protection and risk reduction approaches worked well and which did not, and why. 2. Insights and recommendations from the post event review The PERC identified a number of risk factors, which need attention if risk is to be reduced over time. • Yet another "100-year flood" - risk perception and understanding of risk in the population. • Residual risk and the levee shadow effect - why the population "felt safe." • What is the overload case and how to implement it in flood protection systems? • Decision-making for the future under uncertainty - how to design to acceptable flood protection levels if we haven't seen yet what's physically possible. 3. How to protect - practical examples Finally, we outline practical examples for reducing the loss burden and risk over time. • "Flood protection hierarchy" - from location choice under a hazard perspective to mobile flood protection. • Risk-based approach and identification of critical infrastructure. • Integrated flood risk management in theory and practical application. • Role of insurance.

Hour Glass Half-Full or Half-Empty? Future Time Perspective and Preoccupation with Negative Events Across the Life Span

PubMed Central

Strough, JoNell; de Bruin, Wändi Bruine; Parker, Andrew M.; Lemaster, Philip; Pichayayothin, Nipat; Delaney, Rebecca

2016-01-01

According to socioemotional selectivity theory, older adults' emotional well-being stems from having limited future time perspective that motivates them to maximize well-being in the “here and now.” Presumably, then, older adults' time horizons are associated with emotional competencies that boost positive affect and dampen negative affect, but little research has addressed this. Using a US national adult life-span sample (N= 3,933, 18-93 yrs), we found that a two-factor model of future time perspective (focus on future opportunities; focus on limited time) fit the data better than a one-factor model. Through middle age, people perceived the life-span hourglass as half full—they focused more on future opportunities than limited time. Around age 60, the balance changed to increasingly perceiving the life-span hourglass as half empty—they focused less on future opportunities and more on limited time. This pattern held even after accounting for perceived health, self-reported decision-making ability, and retirement status. At all ages, women's time horizons focused more on future opportunities compared to men's, and men's focused more on limited time. Focusing on future opportunities was associated with reporting less preoccupation with negative events, whereas focusing on limited time was associated with reporting more preoccupation. Older adults reported less preoccupation with negative events and this association was stronger after controlling for their perceptions of limited time and fewer future opportunities, suggesting that other pathways may explain older adults' reports of their ability to disengage from negative events. Insights gained and questions raised by measuring future time perspective as two dimensions are discussed. PMID:27267222

Hour glass half full or half empty? Future time perspective and preoccupation with negative events across the life span.

PubMed

Strough, JoNell; Bruine de Bruin, Wändi; Parker, Andrew M; Lemaster, Philip; Pichayayothin, Nipat; Delaney, Rebecca

2016-09-01

According to socioemotional selectivity theory, older adults' emotional well-being stems from having a limited future time perspective that motivates them to maximize well-being in the "here and now." Presumably, then, older adults' time horizons are associated with emotional competencies that boost positive affect and dampen negative affect, but little research has addressed this. Using a U.S. adult life-span sample (N = 3,933; 18-93 years), we found that a 2-factor model of future time perspective (future opportunities; limited time) fit the data better than a 1-factor model. Through middle age, people perceived the life-span hourglass as half full-they focused more on future opportunities than limited time. Around Age 60, the balance changed to increasingly perceiving the life-span hourglass as half empty-they focused less on future opportunities and more on limited time, even after accounting for perceived health, self-reported decision-making ability, and retirement status. At all ages, women's time horizons focused more on future opportunities compared with men's, and men's focused more on limited time. Focusing on future opportunities was associated with reporting less preoccupation with negative events, whereas focusing on limited time was associated with reporting more preoccupation. Older adults reported less preoccupation with negative events, and this association was stronger after controlling for their perceptions of limited time and fewer future opportunities, suggesting that other pathways may explain older adults' reports of their ability to disengage from negative events. Insights gained and questions raised by measuring future time perspective as 2 dimensions are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Detection of planets in extremely weak central perturbation microlensing events via next-generation ground-based surveys

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chung, Sun-Ju; Lee, Chung-Uk; Koo, Jae-Rim, E-mail: sjchung@kasi.re.kr, E-mail: leecu@kasi.re.kr, E-mail: koojr@kasi.re.kr

2014-04-20

Even though the recently discovered high-magnification event MOA-2010-BLG-311 had complete coverage over its peak, confident planet detection did not happen due to extremely weak central perturbations (EWCPs, fractional deviations of ≲ 2%). For confident detection of planets in EWCP events, it is necessary to have both high cadence monitoring and high photometric accuracy better than those of current follow-up observation systems. The next-generation ground-based observation project, Korea Microlensing Telescope Network (KMTNet), satisfies these conditions. We estimate the probability of occurrence of EWCP events with fractional deviations of ≤2% in high-magnification events and the efficiency of detecting planets in the EWCPmore » events using the KMTNet. From this study, we find that the EWCP events occur with a frequency of >50% in the case of ≲ 100 M {sub E} planets with separations of 0.2 AU ≲ d ≲ 20 AU. We find that for main-sequence and sub-giant source stars, ≳ 1 M {sub E} planets in EWCP events with deviations ≤2% can be detected with frequency >50% in a certain range that changes with the planet mass. However, it is difficult to detect planets in EWCP events of bright stars like giant stars because it is easy for KMTNet to be saturated around the peak of the events because of its constant exposure time. EWCP events are caused by close, intermediate, and wide planetary systems with low-mass planets and close and wide planetary systems with massive planets. Therefore, we expect that a much greater variety of planetary systems than those already detected, which are mostly intermediate planetary systems, regardless of the planet mass, will be significantly detected in the near future.« less

A cyber-event correlation framework and metrics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kang, Myong H.; Mayfield, Terry

2003-08-01

In this paper, we propose a cyber-event fusion, correlation, and situation assessment framework that, when instantiated, will allow cyber defenders to better understand the local, regional, and global cyber-situation. This framework, with associated metrics, can be used to guide assessment of our existing cyber-defense capabilities, and to help evaluate the state of cyber-event correlation research and where we must focus our future cyber-event correlation research. The framework, based on the cyber-event gathering activities and analysis functions, consists of five operational steps, each of which provides a richer set of contextual information to support greater situational understanding. The first three steps are categorically depicted as increasingly richer and broader-scoped contexts achieved through correlation activity, while in the final two steps, these richer contexts are achieved through analytical activities (situation assessment, and threat analysis & prediction). Category 1 Correlation focuses on the detection of suspicious activities and the correlation of events from a single cyber-event source. Category 2 Correlation clusters the same or similar events from multiple detectors that are located at close proximity and prioritizes them. Finally, the events from different time periods and event sources at different location/regions are correlated at Category 3 to recognize the relationship among different events. This is the category that focuses on the detection of large-scale and coordinated attacks. The situation assessment step (Category 4) focuses on the assessment of cyber asset damage and the analysis of the impact on missions. The threat analysis and prediction step (Category 5) analyzes attacks based on attack traces and predicts the next steps. Metrics that can distinguish correlation and cyber-situation assessment tools for each category are also proposed.

The costs and benefits of reconstruction options in Nepal using the CEDIM FDA modelled and empirical analysis following the 2015 earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daniell, James; Schaefer, Andreas; Wenzel, Friedemann; Khazai, Bijan; Girard, Trevor; Kunz-Plapp, Tina; Kunz, Michael; Muehr, Bernhard

2016-04-01

Over the days following the 2015 Nepal earthquake, rapid loss estimates of deaths and the economic loss and reconstruction cost were undertaken by our research group in conjunction with the World Bank. This modelling relied on historic losses from other Nepal earthquakes as well as detailed socioeconomic data and earthquake loss information via CATDAT. The modelled results were very close to the final death toll and reconstruction cost for the 2015 earthquake of around 9000 deaths and a direct building loss of ca. 3 billion (a). A description of the process undertaken to produce these loss estimates is described and the potential for use in analysing reconstruction costs from future Nepal earthquakes in rapid time post-event. The reconstruction cost and death toll model is then used as the base model for the examination of the effect of spending money on earthquake retrofitting of buildings versus complete reconstruction of buildings. This is undertaken future events using empirical statistics from past events along with further analytical modelling. The effects of investment vs. the time of a future event is also explored. Preliminary low-cost options (b) along the line of other country studies for retrofitting (ca. 100) are examined versus the option of different building typologies in Nepal as well as investment in various sectors of construction. The effect of public vs. private capital expenditure post-earthquake is also explored as part of this analysis, as well as spending on other components outside of earthquakes. a) http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/experts-calculate-new-loss-predictions-for-nepal-quake/ b) http://www.aees.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/23-Daniell.pdf

Precipitation event tracking reveals that precipitation characteristics respond differently under seasonal, interannual, and anthropogenic forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, C.; Chang, W.; Kong, W.; Wang, J.; Kotamarthi, V. R.; Stein, M.; Moyer, E. J.

2017-12-01

Change in precipitation characteristics is an especially concerning potential impact of climate change, and both model and observational studies suggest that increases in precipitation intensity are likely. However, studies to date have focused on mean accumulated precipitation rather than on the characteristics of individual events. We report here on a study using a novel rainstorm identification tracking algorithm (Chang et al. 2016) that allows evaluating changes in spatio-temporal characteristics of events. We analyze high-resolution precipitation from dynamically downscaled regional climate simulations over the continental U.S. (WRF driven by CCSM4) of present and future climate conditions. We show that precipitation events show distinct characteristic changes for natural seasonal and interannual variations and for anthropogenic greenhouse-gas forcing. In all cases, wetter seasons/years/future climate states are associated with increased precipitation intensity, but other precipitation characteristics respond differently to the different drivers. For example, under anthropogenic forcing, future wetter climate states involve smaller individual event sizes (partially offsetting their increased intensity). Under natural variability, however, wetter years involve larger mean event sizes. Event identification and tracking algorithms thus allow distinguishing drivers of different types of precipitation changes, and in relating those changes to large-scale processes.

Remembering the past and imagining the future: Identifying and enhancing the contribution of episodic memory

PubMed Central

Schacter, Daniel L; Madore, Kevin P

2016-01-01

Recent studies have shown that imagining or simulating future events relies on many of the same cognitive and neural processes as remembering past events. According to the constructive episodic simulation hypothesis (Schacter and Addis, 2007), such overlap indicates that both remembered past and imagined future events rely heavily on episodic memory: future simulations are built on retrieved details of specific past experiences that are recombined into novel events. An alternative possibility is that commonalities between remembering and imagining reflect the influence of more general, non-episodic factors such as narrative style or communicative goals that shape the expression of both memory and imagination. We consider recent studies that distinguish the contributions of episodic and non-episodic processes in remembering the past and imagining the future by using an episodic specificity induction – brief training in recollecting the details of a past experience – and also extend this approach to the domains of problem solving and creative thinking. We conclude by suggesting that the specificity induction may target a process of scene construction that contributes to episodic memory as well as to imagination, problem solving, and creative thinking. PMID:28163775

Focusing Events and Constrains on Policy Addressing Long-Term Climate Change Risks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Donovan, K.

2014-12-01

When policy makers are aware of immediate and long-term risks to communities, what do they do to plan for and mitigate the effects of climate change? This paper addresses that question in two ways. First, as an organizing framework it presents an overview of the empirical evidence on focusing events. Focusing events are defined as sudden, rare events that reveal harm or the potential for future harm that the general public and policy makers become aware of simultaneously. These large-scale events are typically natural and disasters, crisis, or technological accidents. This paper considers the empirical evidence of the relationship between focusing events, the harm revealed by the event and policy change aimed at reducing future risk of harm. Second, this paper reviews the case of flood mitigation policy in the United States from 1968 to 2008. It considers the ways in which policy makers have and have not integrated future flood risks into mitigation policy and planning, particularly after large-scale floods. It analyzes the political, intergovernmental, demographic and geographic factors that have promoted and constrained long-term flood mitigation policy. This paper concludes with a discussion of the meaning and implications of potential focusing events and constrains on policy for long-term climate change concerns.

Cloud-Based Smart Health Monitoring System for Automatic Cardiovascular and Fall Risk Assessment in Hypertensive Patients.

PubMed

Melillo, P; Orrico, A; Scala, P; Crispino, F; Pecchia, L

2015-10-01

The aim of this paper is to describe the design and the preliminary validation of a platform developed to collect and automatically analyze biomedical signals for risk assessment of vascular events and falls in hypertensive patients. This m-health platform, based on cloud computing, was designed to be flexible, extensible, and transparent, and to provide proactive remote monitoring via data-mining functionalities. A retrospective study was conducted to train and test the platform. The developed system was able to predict a future vascular event within the next 12 months with an accuracy rate of 84 % and to identify fallers with an accuracy rate of 72 %. In an ongoing prospective trial, almost all the recruited patients accepted favorably the system with a limited rate of inadherences causing data losses (<20 %). The developed platform supported clinical decision by processing tele-monitored data and providing quick and accurate risk assessment of vascular events and falls.

a Theoretical Calculation of Microlensing Signatures Caused by Free-Floating Planets Towards the Galactic Bulge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamolli, L.; Hafizi, M.; Nucita, A. A.

2013-08-01

Free-floating planets (FFPs) are recently drawing a special interest of the scientific community. Gravitational microlensing is up to now the exclusive method for the investigation of FFPs, including their spatial distribution function and mass function. In this paper, we examine the possibility that the future Euclid space-based observatory may allow to discover a substantial number of microlensing events caused by FFPs. Based on latest results about the free-floating planet (FFP) mass function in the mass range [10-5, 10-2]M⊙, we calculate the optical depth towards the Galactic bulge as well as the expected microlensing rate and find that Euclid may be able to detect hundreds to thousands of these events per month. Making use of a synthetic population, we also investigate the possibility of detecting parallax effect in simulated microlensing events due to FFPs and find a significant efficiency for the parallax detection that turns out to be around 30%.

The Spanish tourist sector facing extreme climate events: a case study of domestic tourism in the heat wave of 2003

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gómez-Martín, M. Belén; Armesto-López, Xosé A.; Martínez-Ibarra, Emilio

2014-07-01

This research explores, by means of a questionnaire-based survey, public knowledge and perception as well as the behaviour of young Spanish tourists before, during and after the summer holiday period affected by an episode of extreme heat in 2003. The survey was administered between November and December 2004. The extraordinary heat wave of the summer of 2003 can be seen as an example of a normal episode in terms of the predicted intensity and duration of European summers towards the end of the twenty-first century. It can therefore be used as the laboratory setting for this study. In this context, the use of the climate analogue approach allows us to obtain novel perspectives regarding the future impact that this type of event could have on tourist demand, based on a real experience. Likewise, such an approach allows the strategies of adaptation implemented by the different elements in the tourist system in order to cope with the atmospheric episode to be evaluated. Such strategies could prove useful in reducing vulnerability when faced with similar episodes in the future. The main results indicate that Spanish tourists (young segment market) are flexible in adapting to episodes of extremely high temperatures. Their personal perception of the phenomenon, their behaviour and the adaptation measures implemented to a greater or lesser extent before that time, reduce the vulnerability of the sector when faced with this type of event, at least from the point of view of this young segment of the internal national market. In Spain, the episode of extreme heat of 2003 has led to the implementation or improvement of some adaptive measures after the event, especially in the fields of management, policy and education.

The Spanish tourist sector facing extreme climate events: a case study of domestic tourism in the heat wave of 2003.

PubMed

Gómez-Martín, M Belén; Armesto-López, Xosé A; Martínez-Ibarra, Emilio

2014-07-01

This research explores, by means of a questionnaire-based survey, public knowledge and perception as well as the behaviour of young Spanish tourists before, during and after the summer holiday period affected by an episode of extreme heat in 2003. The survey was administered between November and December 2004. The extraordinary heat wave of the summer of 2003 can be seen as an example of a normal episode in terms of the predicted intensity and duration of European summers towards the end of the twenty-first century. It can therefore be used as the laboratory setting for this study. In this context, the use of the climate analogue approach allows us to obtain novel perspectives regarding the future impact that this type of event could have on tourist demand, based on a real experience. Likewise, such an approach allows the strategies of adaptation implemented by the different elements in the tourist system in order to cope with the atmospheric episode to be evaluated. Such strategies could prove useful in reducing vulnerability when faced with similar episodes in the future. The main results indicate that Spanish tourists (young segment market) are flexible in adapting to episodes of extremely high temperatures. Their personal perception of the phenomenon, their behaviour and the adaptation measures implemented to a greater or lesser extent before that time, reduce the vulnerability of the sector when faced with this type of event, at least from the point of view of this young segment of the internal national market. In Spain, the episode of extreme heat of 2003 has led to the implementation or improvement of some adaptive measures after the event, especially in the fields of management, policy and education.

The Lederman Science Center: Past, Present, Future

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bardeen, Marjorie G.; /Fermilab

2011-11-01

For 30 years, Fermilab has offered K-12 education programs, building bridges between the Lab and the community. The Lederman Science Center is our home. We host field trips and tours, visit schools, offer classes and professional development workshops, host special events, support internships and have a strong web presence. We develop programs based on identified needs, offer programs with peer-leaders and improve programs from participant feedback. For some we create interest; for others we build understanding and develop relationships, engaging participants in scientific exploration. We explain how we created the Center, its programs, and what the future holds.

The Lederman Science Center:. Past, Present, Future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bardeen, Marjorie G.

2012-08-01

For 30 years, Fermilab has offered K-12 education programs, building bridges between the Lab and the community. The Lederman Science Center is our home. We host field trips and tours, visit schools, offer classes and professional development workshops, host special events, support internships and have a strong web presence. We develop programs based on identified needs, offer programs with peer-leaders and improve programs from participant feedback. For some we create interest; for others we build understanding and develop relationships, engaging participants in scientific exploration. We explain how we created the Center, its programs, and what the future holds.

Investigating future climate change impacts on drougt patterns over the Euro-Mediterranean area based on a probabilistic approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonaccorso, Brunella; Peres, David Johnny; Cancelliere, Antonino

2017-04-01

As extensively documented by the IPCC assessment reports, impacts from recent climate-related extremes, such as heat waves, droughts, floods, cyclones and wildfires, reveal significant vulnerability of many environmental and anthropic systems to climate change. Compared to other extreme weather events, droughts evolve slowly in time. Based on this feature, effective drought preparedness and mitigation strategies could be implemented by decision makers, if appropriate tools, able to anticipate drought evolution in time and space, were available. Climate models' projections combined with probabilistic tools for drought characterization could help in understanding the time evolution of drought hazard in the future. Within the delineated context, the aim of the present study is to investigate potential scenarios of space-time variability of drought occurrences over Europe, by comparing the return periods of design drought events for different future time intervals. More specifically, annual precipitation data from Regional Climate Models (RCMs) of the Med-CORDEX initiative, covering the Euro-Mediterranean area (Northern Africa and Southern and Central Europe) at a grid resolution of about 50 km, are used to assess drought characteristics for three future periods (i.e. 2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100), and compared to those in the baseline period (1971-2000). Specifically, three precipitation RCM datasets - produced by the CMMC (Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, IT), the LMD (Laboratorie del Météorologie Dynamique, FR) and the GUF (Goethe University Frankfurt, DE) - for two Representative Concentration Pathways, RCP 4.5 (intermediate) and RCP8.5 (high emissions), are considered for multi-year drought identification and characterization. First, the goodness of fit of several probability distributions to the considered precipitation gridded dataset is examined cell by cell by the Lilliefors test, and the best distribution is chosen for each cell based on the lowest value of the test statistic. Then, the marginal and multivariate probability distributions of drought characteristics (duration and accumulated deficit) are derived as functions of the parameters of the probability distribution of precipitation and the threshold level selected to identify droughts as negative runs. Finally, the return periods of design drought events are computed as the expected value of the interarrival time between consecutive critical droughts, and the possible spatial patterns are investigated. In general, results confirm an increasing occurrence of severe drought episodes in several regions of the investigated area in the future, although some discordances arise with respect to the different projections over the considered future periods. Apparently, Central Eastern regions of the Mediterranean are likely to become more drought prone, as low values of return periods are obtained.

Climate change, extreme weather events, and us health impacts: what can we say?

PubMed

Mills, David M

2009-01-01

Address how climate change impacts on a group of extreme weather events could affect US public health. A literature review summarizes arguments for, and evidence of, a climate change signal in select extreme weather event categories, projections for future events, and potential trends in adaptive capacity and vulnerability in the United States. Western US wildfires already exhibit a climate change signal. The variability within hurricane and extreme precipitation/flood data complicates identifying a similar climate change signal. Health impacts of extreme events are not equally distributed and are very sensitive to a subset of exceptional extreme events. Cumulative uncertainty in forecasting climate change driven characteristics of extreme events and adaptation prevents confidently projecting the future health impacts from hurricanes, wildfires, and extreme precipitation/floods in the United States attributable to climate change.

A Differential Deficit in Time- versus Event-based Prospective Memory in Parkinson's Disease

PubMed Central

Raskin, Sarah A.; Woods, Steven Paul; Poquette, Amelia J.; McTaggart, April B.; Sethna, Jim; Williams, Rebecca C.; Tröster, Alexander I.

2010-01-01

Objective The aim of the current study was to clarify the nature and extent of impairment in time- versus event-based prospective memory in Parkinson's disease (PD). Prospective memory is thought to involve cognitive processes that are mediated by prefrontal systems and are executive in nature. Given that individuals with PD frequently show executive dysfunction, it is important to determine whether these individuals may have deficits in prospective memory that could impact daily functions, such as taking medications. Although it has been reported that individuals with PD evidence impairment in prospective memory, it is still unclear whether they show a greater deficit for time- versus event-based cues. Method Fifty-four individuals with PD and 34 demographically similar healthy adults were administered a standardized measure of prospective memory that allows for a direct comparison of time-based and event-based cues. In addition, participants were administered a series of standardized measures of retrospective memory and executive functions. Results Individuals with PD demonstrated impaired prospective memory performance compared to the healthy adults, with a greater impairment demonstrated for the time-based tasks. Time-based prospective memory performance was moderately correlated with measures of executive functioning, but only the Stroop Neuropsychological Screening Test emerged as a unique predictor in a linear regression. Conclusions Findings are interpreted within the context of McDaniel and Einstein's (2000) multi-process theory to suggest that individuals with PD experience particular difficulty executing a future intention when the cue to execute the prescribed intention requires higher levels of executive control. PMID:21090895

A diagnosis system using object-oriented fault tree models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Iverson, David L.; Patterson-Hine, F. A.

1990-01-01

Spaceborne computing systems must provide reliable, continuous operation for extended periods. Due to weight, power, and volume constraints, these systems must manage resources very effectively. A fault diagnosis algorithm is described which enables fast and flexible diagnoses in the dynamic distributed computing environments planned for future space missions. The algorithm uses a knowledge base that is easily changed and updated to reflect current system status. Augmented fault trees represented in an object-oriented form provide deep system knowledge that is easy to access and revise as a system changes. Given such a fault tree, a set of failure events that have occurred, and a set of failure events that have not occurred, this diagnosis system uses forward and backward chaining to propagate causal and temporal information about other failure events in the system being diagnosed. Once the system has established temporal and causal constraints, it reasons backward from heuristically selected failure events to find a set of basic failure events which are a likely cause of the occurrence of the top failure event in the fault tree. The diagnosis system has been implemented in common LISP using Flavors.

Reliability of equivalent sphere model in blood-forming organ dose estimation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shinn, Judy L.; Wilson, John W.; Nealy, John E.

1990-01-01

The radiation dose equivalents to blood-forming organs (BFO's) of the astronauts at the Martian surface due to major solar flare events are calculated using the detailed body geometry of Langley and Billings. The solar flare spectra of February 1956, November 1960, and August 1972 events are employed instead of the idealized Webber form. The detailed geometry results are compared with those based on the 5-cm sphere model which was used often in the past to approximate BFO dose or dose equivalent. Larger discrepancies are found for the later two events possibly due to the lower numbers of highly penetrating protons. It is concluded that the 5-cm sphere model is not suitable for quantitative use in connection with future NASA deep-space, long-duration mission shield design studies.

Computation Modeling of Limb-bud Dysmorphogenesis: Predicting Cellular Dynamics and Key Events in Developmental Toxicity with a Multicellular Systems Model (FutureToxII)

EPA Science Inventory

Congenital limb malformations are among the most frequent malformation occurs in humans, with a frequency of about 1 in 500 to 1 in 1000 human live births. ToxCast is profiling the bioactivity of thousands of chemicals based on high-throughput (HTS) and computational methods that...

Space weather forecasting: Past, Present, Future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lanzerotti, L. J.

2012-12-01

There have been revolutionary advances in electrical technologies over the last 160 years. The historical record demonstrates that space weather processes have often provided surprises in the implementation and operation of many of these technologies. The historical record also demonstrates that as the complexity of systems increase, including their interconnectedness and interoperability, they can become more susceptible to space weather effects. An engineering goal, beginning during the decades following the 1859 Carrington event, has been to attempt to forecast solar-produced disturbances that could affect technical systems, be they long grounded conductor-based or radio-based or required for exploration, or the increasingly complex systems immersed in the space environment itself. Forecasting of space weather events involves both frontier measurements and models to address engineering requirements, and industrial and governmental policies that encourage and permit creativity and entrepreneurship. While analogies of space weather forecasting to terrestrial weather forecasting are frequently made, and while many of the analogies are valid, there are also important differences. This presentation will provide some historical perspectives on the forecast problem, a personal assessment of current status of several areas including important policy issues, and a look into the not-too-distant future.

Attributing Historical Changes in Probabilities of Record-Breaking Daily Temperature and Precipitation Extreme Events

DOE PAGES

Shiogama, Hideo; Imada, Yukiko; Mori, Masato; ...

2016-08-07

Here, we describe two unprecedented large (100-member), longterm (61-year) ensembles based on MRI-AGCM3.2, which were driven by historical and non-warming climate forcing. These ensembles comprise the "Database for Policy Decision making for Future climate change (d4PDF)". We compare these ensembles to large ensembles based on another climate model, as well as to observed data, to investigate the influence of anthropogenic activities on historical changes in the numbers of record-breaking events, including: the annual coldest daily minimum temperature (TNn), the annual warmest daily maximum temperature (TXx) and the annual most intense daily precipitation event (Rx1day). These two climate model ensembles indicatemore » that human activity has already had statistically significant impacts on the number of record-breaking extreme events worldwide mainly in the Northern Hemisphere land. Specifically, human activities have altered the likelihood that a wider area globally would suffer record-breaking TNn, TXx and Rx1day events than that observed over the 2001- 2010 period by a factor of at least 0.6, 5.4 and 1.3, respectively. However, we also find that the estimated spatial patterns and amplitudes of anthropogenic impacts on the probabilities of record-breaking events are sensitive to the climate model and/or natural-world boundary conditions used in the attribution studies.« less

The impact of climate change on the drought variability over Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kirono, D. G. C.; Hennessy, K.; Mpelasoka, F.; Bathols, J.; Kent, D.

2009-04-01

Drought has significant environmental and socio-economic impacts in Australia. Government assistance for drought events is guided by the current National Drought Policy (NDP). The Commonwealth Government provides support to farmers and rural communities under the Exceptional Circumstances (EC) arrangements and other drought programs, while state and territory governments also participate in the NDP and provide support measures of their own. To be classified as an EC event, the event must be rare, that is must not have occurred more than once on average in every 20-25 years. Given the likely increase in the area of the world affected by droughts in future due to climate change (IPCC, 2007), this paper presents assessments on how climate change may affect the concept of a one in 20-25 year event into the future for Australia. As droughts can be experienced and defined in different ways, many drought indices are available to monitor and to assess drought conditions. Commonly, these indices are categorised into four types: meteorological, hydrological, agricultural, and socio-economic. The meteorological drought indices are more widely used because they require data that are readily available and that they are relatively easy to calculate. However, meteorological drought indices based on rainfall alone fail to include the important contribution of evaporation. Here, the assessment is made using outputs of 13 global climate models (GCMs) and a meteorological drought index called the Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI). It incorporates the aggregated deficits between the rainfall and the evaporative demand of the atmosphere. If the RDI were the sole trigger for EC declarations, then the mean projections indicate that more declarations would be likely in the future. As a comparison, results from an assessment based on other measures (temperature, rainfall, and soil wetness) will also be presented. IPCC, 2007: Climate Change 2007 - The physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (eds. Solomon, S. et al.). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, www.ipcc.ch

Projections of West African summer monsoon rainfall extremes from two CORDEX models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akinsanola, A. A.; Zhou, Wen

2018-05-01

Global warming has a profound impact on the vulnerable environment of West Africa; hence, robust climate projection, especially of rainfall extremes, is quite important. Based on two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios, projected changes in extreme summer rainfall events over West Africa were investigated using data from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment models. Eight (8) extreme rainfall indices (CDD, CWD, r10mm, r20mm, PRCPTOT, R95pTOT, rx5day, and sdii) defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices were used in the study. The performance of the regional climate model (RCM) simulations was validated by comparing with GPCP and TRMM observation data sets. Results show that the RCMs reasonably reproduced the observed pattern of extreme rainfall over the region and further added significant value to the driven GCMs over some grids. Compared to the baseline period 1976-2005, future changes (2070-2099) in summer rainfall extremes under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios show statistically significant decreasing total rainfall (PRCPTOT), while consecutive dry days and extreme rainfall events (R95pTOT) are projected to increase significantly. There are obvious indications that simple rainfall intensity (sdii) will increase in the future. This does not amount to an increase in total rainfall but suggests a likelihood of greater intensity of rainfall events. Overall, our results project that West Africa may suffer more natural disasters such as droughts and floods in the future.

Upper-plate splay fault earthquakes along the Arakan subduction belt recorded by uplifted coral microatolls on northern Ramree Island, western Myanmar (Burma)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shyu, J. Bruce H.; Wang, Chung-Che; Wang, Yu; Shen, Chuan-Chou; Chiang, Hong-Wei; Liu, Sze-Chieh; Min, Soe; Aung, Lin Thu; Than, Oo; Tun, Soe Thura

2018-02-01

Upper-plate structures that splay out from the megathrusts are common features along major convergent plate boundaries. However, their earthquake and tsunami hazard potentials have not yet received significant attention. In this study, we identified at least one earthquake event that may have been produced by an upper-plate splay fault offshore western Myanmar, based on U-Th ages of uplifted coral microatolls. This event is likely an earthquake that was documented historically in C.E. 1848, with an estimated magnitude between 6.8 and 7.2 based on regional structural characteristics. Such magnitude is consistent with the observed co-seismic uplift amount of ∼0.5 m. Although these events are smaller in magnitude than events produced by megathrusts, they may produce higher earthquake and tsunami hazards for local coastal communities due to their proximity. Our results also indicate that earthquake events with co-seismic uplift along the coast may not necessarily produce a flight of marine terraces. Therefore, using only records of uplifted marine terraces as megathrust earthquake proxies may overlook the importance of upper-plate splay fault ruptures, and underestimate the overall earthquake frequency for future seismic and tsunami hazards along major subduction zones of the world.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shiogama, Hideo; Imada, Yukiko; Mori, Masato

Here, we describe two unprecedented large (100-member), longterm (61-year) ensembles based on MRI-AGCM3.2, which were driven by historical and non-warming climate forcing. These ensembles comprise the "Database for Policy Decision making for Future climate change (d4PDF)". We compare these ensembles to large ensembles based on another climate model, as well as to observed data, to investigate the influence of anthropogenic activities on historical changes in the numbers of record-breaking events, including: the annual coldest daily minimum temperature (TNn), the annual warmest daily maximum temperature (TXx) and the annual most intense daily precipitation event (Rx1day). These two climate model ensembles indicatemore » that human activity has already had statistically significant impacts on the number of record-breaking extreme events worldwide mainly in the Northern Hemisphere land. Specifically, human activities have altered the likelihood that a wider area globally would suffer record-breaking TNn, TXx and Rx1day events than that observed over the 2001- 2010 period by a factor of at least 0.6, 5.4 and 1.3, respectively. However, we also find that the estimated spatial patterns and amplitudes of anthropogenic impacts on the probabilities of record-breaking events are sensitive to the climate model and/or natural-world boundary conditions used in the attribution studies.« less

Thinking about the future can cause forgetting of the past.

PubMed

Ditta, Annie S; Storm, Benjamin C

2016-01-01

People are able to imagine events in the future that have not yet happened, an ability referred to as episodic future thinking. There is now compelling evidence that episodic future thinking is accomplished via processes similar to those that underlie episodic retrieval. Drawing upon work on retrieval-induced forgetting, which has shown that retrieving some items in memory can cause the forgetting of other items in memory, we show that engaging in episodic future thinking can cause related autobiographical memories (Experiments 1-3) and episodic event descriptions (Experiments 3-4) to become less recallable in the future than they would have been otherwise. This finding suggests that episodic future thinking can serve as a memory modifier by changing the extent to which memories from our past can be subsequently retrieved.

Assessing the Value of Information for Identifying Optimal Floodplain Management Portfolios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Read, L.; Bates, M.; Hui, R.; Lund, J. R.

2014-12-01

Floodplain management is a complex portfolio problem that can be analyzed from an integrated perspective incorporating traditionally structural and nonstructural options. One method to identify effective strategies for preparing, responding to, and recovering from floods is to optimize for a portfolio of temporary (emergency) and permanent floodplain management options. A risk-based optimization approach to this problem assigns probabilities to specific flood events and calculates the associated expected damages. This approach is currently limited by: (1) the assumption of perfect flood forecast information, i.e. implementing temporary management activities according to the actual flood event may differ from optimizing based on forecasted information and (2) the inability to assess system resilience across a range of possible future events (risk-centric approach). Resilience is defined here as the ability of a system to absorb and recover from a severe disturbance or extreme event. In our analysis, resilience is a system property that requires integration of physical, social, and information domains. This work employs a 3-stage linear program to identify the optimal mix of floodplain management options using conditional probabilities to represent perfect and imperfect flood stages (forecast vs. actual events). We assess the value of information in terms of minimizing damage costs for two theoretical cases - urban and rural systems. We use portfolio analysis to explore how the set of optimal management options differs depending on whether the goal is for the system to be risk-adverse to a specified event or resilient over a range of events.

Environmental conditions synchronize waterbird mortality events in the Great Lakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Prince, Karine; Chipault, Jennifer G.; White, C. LeAnn; Zuckerberg, Benjamin

2018-01-01

Since the 1960s, periodic outbreaks of avian botulism type E have contributed to large-scale die-offs of thousands of waterbirds throughout the Great Lakes of the United States. In recent years, these events have become more common and widespread. Occurring during the summer and autumn months, the prevalence of these die-offs varies across years and is often associated with years of warmer lake temperatures and lower water levels. Little information exists on how environmental conditions mediate the spatial and temporal characteristics of mortality events.In 2010, a citizen science programme, Avian Monitoring for Botulism Lakeshore Events (AMBLE), was launched to enhance surveillance efforts and detect the appearance of beached waterbird carcasses associated with avian botulism type E outbreaks in northern Lake Michigan. Using these data, our goal was to quantify the within-year characteristics of mortality events for multiple species, and to test whether the synchrony of these events corresponded to fluctuations in two environmental factors suspected to be important in the spread of avian botulism: water temperature and the prevalence of green macroalgae.During two separate events of mass waterbird mortality, we found that the detection of bird carcasses was spatially synchronized at scales of c. 40 km. Notably, the extent of this spatial synchrony in avian mortality matched that of fluctuations in lake surface water temperatures and the prevalence of green macroalgae.Synthesis and applications. Our findings are suggestive of a synchronizing effect where warmer lake temperatures and the appearance of macroalgae mediate the characteristics of avian mortality. In future years, rising lake temperatures and a higher propensity of algal masses could lead to increases in the magnitude and synchronization of avian mortality due to botulism. We advocate that citizen-based monitoring efforts are critical for identifying the potential environmental conditions associated with widespread mortality events and estimating future risk to waterbird populations.

Snow avalanche activity in the High Tatras Mountains: new data achieved by means of dendrogeomorphic methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tichavsky, R.

2016-12-01

The High Tatras Mountains are permanently affected by the occurrence of hazardous geomorphic processes. Snow avalanches represent a common hazard that threatens the infrastructure and humans living and visiting the mountains. So far, the spatio-temporal reconstruction of snow avalanche histories was based only on existing archival records, orthophoto interpretation and lichenometric dating in the High Tatras Mountains. Dendrogeomorphic methods allow for the intra-seasonal dating of scars on tree stems and branches and have been broadly used for the dating of snow avalanche events all over the world. We extracted the increment cores and cross sections from 189 individuals of Pinus mugo var. mugo growing on four tali in the Great Cold Valley and dated all the past scars that could correspond with the winter to early spring occurrence of snow avalanches. The dating was supported by the visual analysis of three orthophoto images from 2004, 2009 and 2014. In total, nineteen event years of snow avalanches (10 certain events, and 9 probable events) were identified since 1959. Historical archives provided evidence only for nine event years since 1987, and three of them were confirmed dendrogeomorphically. Geomorphic effect of recent snow avalanches identified by the spatial distribution of scarred trees in individual years corresponds with the extent of events visible from the orthophotos. We can confirm higher frequency of snow avalanche events since 1980s (17 out of 19 events) and significant increase during the last ten years. The future expected climatic changes associated with the changes in temperature and precipitation regime could significantly influence on the frequency of snow avalanches. Therefore, our results can become the starting line for more extensive dendrogeomorphic survey in the High Tatras Mountains in order to create a catalogue of all natural hazards for the future prediction and modelling of these phenomena in context of environmental changes.

Modeling the Pineapple Express phenomenon via Multivariate Extreme Value Theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weller, G.; Cooley, D. S.

2011-12-01

The pineapple express (PE) phenomenon is responsible for producing extreme winter precipitation events in the coastal and mountainous regions of the western United States. Because the PE phenomenon is also associated with warm temperatures, the heavy precipitation and associated snowmelt can cause destructive flooding. In order to study impacts, it is important that regional climate models from NARCCAP are able to reproduce extreme precipitation events produced by PE. We define a daily precipitation quantity which captures the spatial extent and intensity of precipitation events produced by the PE phenomenon. We then use statistical extreme value theory to model the tail dependence of this quantity as seen in an observational data set and each of the six NARCCAP regional models driven by NCEP reanalysis. We find that most NCEP-driven NARCCAP models do exhibit tail dependence between daily model output and observations. Furthermore, we find that not all extreme precipitation events are pineapple express events, as identified by Dettinger et al. (2011). The synoptic-scale atmospheric processes that drive extreme precipitation events produced by PE have only recently begun to be examined. Much of the current work has focused on pattern recognition, rather than quantitative analysis. We use daily mean sea-level pressure (MSLP) fields from NCEP to develop a "pineapple express index" for extreme precipitation, which exhibits tail dependence with our observed precipitation quantity for pineapple express events. We build a statistical model that connects daily precipitation output from the WRFG model, daily MSLP fields from NCEP, and daily observed precipitation in the western US. Finally, we use this model to simulate future observed precipitation based on WRFG output driven by the CCSM model, and our pineapple express index derived from future CCSM output. Our aim is to use this model to develop a better understanding of the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events produced by PE under climate change.

Persistent cold air outbreaks over North America in a warming climate

DOE PAGES

Gao, Yang; Leung, L. Ruby; Lu, Jian; ...

2015-03-30

This study examines future changes of cold air outbreaks (CAO) using a multi-model ensemble of global climate simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 as well as regional high resolution climate simulations. In the future, while robust decrease of CAO duration dominates in most regions, the magnitude of decrease over northwestern U.S. is much smaller than the surrounding regions. We identified statistically significant increases in sea level pressure during CAO events centering over Yukon, Alaska, and Gulf of Alaska that advects continental cold air to northwestern U.S., leading to blocking and CAO events. Changes in large scale circulationmore » contribute to about 50% of the enhanced sea level pressure anomaly conducive to CAO in northwestern U.S. in the future. High resolution regional simulations revealed potential contributions of increased existing snowpack to increased CAO in the near future over the Rocky Mountain, southwestern U.S., and Great Lakes areas through surface albedo effects, despite winter mean snow water equivalent decreases in the future. Overall, the multi-model projections emphasize that cold extremes do not completely disappear in a warming climate. Concomitant with the relatively smaller reduction in CAO events in northwestern U.S., the top 5 most extreme CAO events may still occur in the future, and wind chill warning will continue to have societal impacts in that region.« less

The anticipated transition to adulthood: effects of culture and individual experience on Polish and Finnish adolescents' future orientations.

PubMed

Trempala, J; Malmberg, L E

1998-05-01

The purpose of this study was to describe the effect of a set of individual resources and cultural factors on adolescents' probability estimations of the occurrence of positive future events in three life domains: education, occupation, and family. The hypothesis was that the effects of culture and individual resources are interwoven in the formation process of future orientation. The sample consisted of 352 17-year-old Polish and Finnish girls and boys from vocational and upper secondary schools. The 78-item questionnaire developed by the authors was used to measure different aspects of future orientation (probability, valence, and extension of future events in three life domains) and individual resources (self-esteem, control beliefs, and social knowledge about normatively and the generation gap). Data analysis showed that culture separately affected individual resources and adolescents' expectations. However, the results broadly confirmed the thesis that the culture has a limited effect on adolescents' expectations of the occurrence of future events. Moreover, these data suggested that the influence of sociocultural differences on adolescents' probability estimations is indirect. In the context of the presented data, the authors discuss their model of future orientation.

Professional Counseling in Nigeria: Past, Present, and Future

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Okocha, Aneneosa A. G.; Alika, Ijeoma H.

2012-01-01

The events that circumscribed the parameters of today's counseling in Nigeria are many and varied regarding their influence in shaping the development of the profession in the country. The authors review these events and the current status of counseling in Nigeria, including the challenges faced in the profession. Future trends and suggestions for…

Eye movements reduce vividness and emotionality of "flashforwards".

PubMed

Engelhard, Iris M; van den Hout, Marcel A; Janssen, Wilco C; van der Beek, Jorinde

2010-05-01

Earlier studies have shown that eye movements during retrieval of disturbing images about past events reduce their vividness and emotionality, which may be due to both tasks competing for working memory resources. This study examined whether eye movements reduce vividness and emotionality of visual distressing images about feared future events: "flashforwards". A non-clinical sample was asked to select two images of feared future events, which were self-rated for vividness and emotionality. These images were retrieved while making eye movements or without a concurrent secondary task, and then vividness and emotionality were rated again. Relative to the no-dual task condition, eye movements while thinking of future-oriented images resulted in decreased ratings of image vividness and emotional intensity. Apparently, eye movements reduce vividness and emotionality of visual images about past and future feared events. This is in line with a working memory account of the beneficial effects of eye movements, which predicts that any task that taxes working memory during retrieval of disturbing mental images will be beneficial. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Nogales flood detention study

USGS Publications Warehouse

Norman, Laura M.; Levick, Lainie; Guertin, D. Phillip; Callegary, James; Guadarrama, Jesus Quintanar; Anaya, Claudia Zulema Gil; Prichard, Andrea; Gray, Floyd; Castellanos, Edgar; Tepezano, Edgar; Huth, Hans; Vandervoet, Prescott; Rodriguez, Saul; Nunez, Jose; Atwood, Donald; Granillo, Gilberto Patricio Olivero; Ceballos, Francisco Octavio Gastellum

2010-01-01

Flooding in Ambos Nogales often exceeds the capacity of the channel and adjacent land areas, endangering many people. The Nogales Wash is being studied to prevent future flood disasters and detention features are being installed in tributaries of the wash. This paper describes the application of the KINEROS2 model and efforts to understand the capacity of these detention features under various flood and urbanization scenarios. Results depict a reduction in peak flow for the 10-year, 1-hour event based on current land use in tributaries with detention features. However, model results also demonstrate that larger storm events and increasing urbanization will put a strain on the features and limit their effectiveness.

Analysis of Accelerometer Data from a Woven Inflatable Creep Burst Test

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

James, George H.; Grygier, Michael; Selig, Molly M.

2015-01-01

Accelerometers were used to montor an inflatable test article during a creep test to failure. The test article experienced impulse events that were classified based on the response of the sensors and their time-dependent manifestation. These impulse events required specialized techniques to process the structural dynamics data. However, certain phenomena were defined as worthy of additional study. An assessment of one phenomena (a frequency near 1000Hz) showed a time dependent frequency and an amplitude that increased significantly near the end of the test. Hence, these observations are expected to drive future understanding of and utility in inflatable space structures.

A Behavior-Analytic Account of Cognitive Bias in Clinical Populations

PubMed Central

Wray, Alisha M; Freund, Rachel A; Dougher, Michael J

2009-01-01

Cognitive bias refers to a well-established finding that individuals who suffer from certain clinical problems (e.g., depression, anxiety, posttraumatic stress disorder, substance abuse, etc.) selectively attend to, remember, and interpret events relevant to their condition. Although a body of literature exists that has tried to examine this phenomenon, most existing explanations are mentalistic and mediational. In this paper we offer a behavior-analytic account of cognitive bias, its development, and how it may contribute to maintenance of clinical problems. This account is based on establishing operations or motivating events, verbal processes, and relational responding. Clinical and future research implications are also discussed. PMID:22478512

School intervention related to school and community violence.

PubMed

Jaycox, Lisa H; Stein, Bradley D; Wong, Marleen

2014-04-01

Schools are well positioned to facilitate recovery for students exposed to community or school violence or other traumatic life events affecting populations of youth. This article describes how schools can circumvent several key barriers to mental health service provision, outcomes that school interventions target, and the role of the family in school-based services. It includes a description of the history of schools in facilitating recovery for students exposed to traumatic events, particularly related to crisis intervention, and the current status of early intervention and strategies for long-term recovery in the school setting. Challenges and future directions are also discussed. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Changes in extreme events and the potential impacts on human health.

PubMed

Bell, Jesse E; Brown, Claudia Langford; Conlon, Kathryn; Herring, Stephanie; Kunkel, Kenneth E; Lawrimore, Jay; Luber, George; Schreck, Carl; Smith, Adam; Uejio, Christopher

2018-04-01

Extreme weather and climate-related events affect human health by causing death, injury, and illness, as well as having large socioeconomic impacts. Climate change has caused changes in extreme event frequency, intensity, and geographic distribution, and will continue to be a driver for change in the future. Some of these events include heat waves, droughts, wildfires, dust storms, flooding rains, coastal flooding, storm surges, and hurricanes. The pathways connecting extreme events to health outcomes and economic losses can be diverse and complex. The difficulty in predicting these relationships comes from the local societal and environmental factors that affect disease burden. More information is needed about the impacts of climate change on public health and economies to effectively plan for and adapt to climate change. This paper describes some of the ways extreme events are changing and provides examples of the potential impacts on human health and infrastructure. It also identifies key research gaps to be addressed to improve the resilience of public health to extreme events in the future. Extreme weather and climate events affect human health by causing death, injury, and illness, as well as having large socioeconomic impacts. Climate change has caused changes in extreme event frequency, intensity, and geographic distribution, and will continue to be a driver for change in the future. Some of these events include heat waves, droughts, wildfires, flooding rains, coastal flooding, surges, and hurricanes. The pathways connecting extreme events to health outcomes and economic losses can be diverse and complex. The difficulty in predicting these relationships comes from the local societal and environmental factors that affect disease burden.

75 FR 24799 - Special Local Regulation for Marine Events; Temporary Change of Dates for Recurring Marine Events...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-05-06

...-AA08 Special Local Regulation for Marine Events; Temporary Change of Dates for Recurring Marine Events... period of two special local regulations for recurring marine events in the Fifth Coast Guard District... errors do not impact the events scheduled for this year, but could cause confusion about future years...

Developing a phenological model for grapevine to assess future frost risk in Luxembourg

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caffarra, A.; Molitor, D.; Pertot, I.; Sinigoy, P.; Junk, J.

2012-04-01

Late frost damage represents a significant hazard to grape production in cool climate viticulture regions such as Luxembourg. The main aim of our study is to analyze the frequency of these events for the Luxembourg's winegrowing region in the future. Spring frost injuries on grape may occur when young green parts are exposed to air temperature below 0°C. The potential risk is determined by: (i) minimum air temperature conditions and the (ii) the timing of bud burst. Therefore, we developed and validated a model for budburst of the grapevine (*Vitis vinifera)* cultivar Rivaner, the most grown local variety, based on multi-annual data from 7 different sites across Europe and the US. An advantage of this approach is, that it could be applied to a wide range of climate conditions. Higher spring temperatures were projected for the future and could lead to earlier dates of budburst as well as earlier dates of last frost events in the season. However, so far it is unknown if this will increase or decrease the risk of severe late frost damages for Luxembourg's winegrowing region. To address this question results of 10 regional climate change projections from the FP6 ENSEMBLES project (spatial resolution = 25km; A1B emission scenario) were combined with the new bud burst model. The use of a multi model ensemble of climate change projections allows for a better quantification of the uncertainties. A bias corrections scheme, based on local observations, was applied to the model output. Projected daily minimum air temperatures, up to 2098, were compared to the projected date of bud burst in order to quantify the future frost risk for Luxembourg.

Time-varying causal network of the Korean financial system based on firm-specific risk premiums

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Jae Wook; Ko, Bonggyun; Cho, Poongjin; Chang, Woojin

2016-09-01

The aim of this paper is to investigate the Korean financial system based on time-varying causal network. We discover many stylized facts by utilizing the firm-specific risk premiums for measuring the causality direction from a firm to firm. At first, we discover that the interconnectedness of causal network is affected by the outbreak of financial events; the co-movement of firm-specific risk premium is strengthened after each positive event, and vice versa. Secondly, we find that the major sector of the Korean financial system is the Depositories, and the financial reform in June-2011 achieves its purpose by weakening the power of risk-spillovers of Broker-Dealers. Thirdly, we identify that the causal network is a small-world network with scale-free topology where the power-law exponents of out-Degree and negative event are more significant than those of in-Degree and positive event. Lastly, we discuss that the current aspects of causal network are closely related to the long-term future scenario of the KOSPI Composite index where the direction and stability are significantly affected by the power of risk-spillovers and the power-law exponents of degree distributions, respectively.

Familiar real-world spatial cues provide memory benefits in older and younger adults.

PubMed

Robin, Jessica; Moscovitch, Morris

2017-05-01

Episodic memory, future thinking, and memory for scenes have all been proposed to rely on the hippocampus, and evidence suggests that these all decline in healthy aging. Despite this age-related memory decline, studies examining the effects of context reinstatement on episodic memory have demonstrated that reinstating elements of the encoding context of an event leads to better memory retrieval in both younger and older adults. The current study was designed to test whether more familiar, real-world contexts, such as locations that participants visited often, would improve the detail richness and vividness of memory for scenes, autobiographical events, and imagination of future events in young and older adults. The predicted age-related decline in internal details across all 3 conditions was accompanied by persistent effects of contextual familiarity, in which a more familiar spatial context led to increased detail and vividness of remembered scenes, autobiographical events, and, to some extent, imagined future events. This study demonstrates that autobiographical memory, imagination of the future, and scene memory are similarly affected by aging, and all benefit from being associated with more familiar (real-world) contexts, illustrating the stability of contextual reinstatement effects on memory throughout the life span. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Estimating the probability of rare events: addressing zero failure data.

PubMed

Quigley, John; Revie, Matthew

2011-07-01

Traditional statistical procedures for estimating the probability of an event result in an estimate of zero when no events are realized. Alternative inferential procedures have been proposed for the situation where zero events have been realized but often these are ad hoc, relying on selecting methods dependent on the data that have been realized. Such data-dependent inference decisions violate fundamental statistical principles, resulting in estimation procedures whose benefits are difficult to assess. In this article, we propose estimating the probability of an event occurring through minimax inference on the probability that future samples of equal size realize no more events than that in the data on which the inference is based. Although motivated by inference on rare events, the method is not restricted to zero event data and closely approximates the maximum likelihood estimate (MLE) for nonzero data. The use of the minimax procedure provides a risk adverse inferential procedure where there are no events realized. A comparison is made with the MLE and regions of the underlying probability are identified where this approach is superior. Moreover, a comparison is made with three standard approaches to supporting inference where no event data are realized, which we argue are unduly pessimistic. We show that for situations of zero events the estimator can be simply approximated with 1/2.5n, where n is the number of trials. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

When the future becomes the past: Differences in brain activation patterns for episodic memory and episodic future thinking.

PubMed

Weiler, Julia A; Suchan, Boris; Daum, Irene

2010-10-15

Episodic memory and episodic future thinking activate a network of overlapping brain regions, but little is known about the mechanism with which the brain separates the two processes. It was recently suggested that differential activity for memory and future thinking may be linked to differences in the phenomenal properties (e.g., richness of detail). Using functional magnetic resonance imaging in healthy subjects and a novel experimental design, we investigated the networks involved in the imagery of future and the recall of past events for the same target occasion, i.e. the Christmas and New Year's holidays, thereby keeping temporal distance and content similar across conditions. Although ratings of phenomenal characteristics were comparable for future thoughts and memories, differential activation patterns emerged. The right posterior hippocampus exhibited stronger memory-related activity during early event recall, and stronger future thought-related activity during late event imagination. Other regions, e.g., the precuneus and lateral prefrontal cortex, showed the reverse activation pattern with early future-associated and late past-associated activation. Memories compared to future thoughts were further related to stronger activation in several visual processing regions, which accords with a reactivation of the original perceptual experience. In conclusion, the results showed for the first time unique neural signatures for both memory and future thinking even in the absence of differences in phenomenal properties and suggested different time courses of brain activation for episodic memory and future thinking. Copyright 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Temporal distance and discrimination: an audit study in academia.

PubMed

Milkman, Katherine L; Akinola, Modupe; Chugh, Dolly

2012-07-01

Through a field experiment set in academia (with a sample of 6,548 professors), we found that decisions about distant-future events were more likely to generate discrimination against women and minorities (relative to Caucasian males) than were decisions about near-future events. In our study, faculty members received e-mails from fictional prospective doctoral students seeking to schedule a meeting either that day or in 1 week; students' names signaled their race (Caucasian, African American, Hispanic, Indian, or Chinese) and gender. When the requests were to meet in 1 week, Caucasian males were granted access to faculty members 26% more often than were women and minorities; also, compared with women and minorities, Caucasian males received more and faster responses. However, these patterns were essentially eliminated when prospective students requested a meeting that same day. Our identification of a temporal discrimination effect is consistent with the predictions of construal-level theory and implies that subtle contextual shifts can alter patterns of race- and gender-based discrimination.

Urolithiasis and Genitourinary Systems Issues for Spaceflight

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, Jeffrey A.; Sargsyan, Ashot; Pietryzk, Robert; Sams, C.; Stepaniak, Phillip; Whitson, P.

2008-09-01

Genitourinary medical events have shown to be an issue for both short duration and long duration spaceflight, and are anticipated to also be a potential issue for future exploration missions as well. This is based on actual historical pre-, in- and post-flight medical events, as well as assessment of what future flight challenges lay ahead. For this study, retrospective record review, as well as prospective studies of ultrasound and contingency management procedure development, and oral urinary stone prophylaxis were conducted. Results showed that the incidence of prior urinary calculi in- and post-flight was a risk driver for development of on-orbit countermeasures, as well as diagnostic and therapeutic methods for a possible in-flight calculus contingency. Oral potassium citrate and bisphosphonate preparations show promise for prophylaxis in spaceflight risk reduction. We conclude that a properly developed approach of selection, monitoring, and preventive medicine with effective countermeasures, along with early imaging diagnosis and minimally-invasive contingency intervention, should prevent issues such as urinary calculi from having a significant mission impact for exploration-class spaceflight.

Divergent Thinking and Constructing Episodic Simulations

PubMed Central

Addis, Donna Rose; Pan, Ling; Musicaro, Regina; Schacter, Daniel L.

2014-01-01

Divergent thinking likely plays an important role in simulating autobiographical events. We investigated whether divergent thinking is differentially associated with the ability to construct detailed imagined future and imagined past events as opposed to recalling past events. We also examined whether age differences in divergent thinking might underlie the reduced episodic detail generated by older adults. The richness of episodic detail comprising autobiographical events in young and older adults was assessed using the Autobiographical Interview. Divergent thinking abilities were measured using the Alternate Uses Task. Divergent thinking was significantly associated with the amount of episodic detail for imagined future events. Moreover, while age was significantly associated with imagined episodic detail, this effect was strongly related to age-related changes in episodic retrieval rather than divergent thinking. PMID:25483132

Divergent thinking and constructing episodic simulations.

PubMed

Addis, Donna Rose; Pan, Ling; Musicaro, Regina; Schacter, Daniel L

2016-01-01

Divergent thinking likely plays an important role in simulating autobiographical events. We investigated whether divergent thinking is differentially associated with the ability to construct detailed imagined future and imagined past events as opposed to recalling past events. We also examined whether age differences in divergent thinking might underlie the reduced episodic detail generated by older adults. The richness of episodic detail comprising autobiographical events in young and older adults was assessed using the Autobiographical Interview. Divergent thinking abilities were measured using the Alternative Uses Task. Divergent thinking was significantly associated with the amount of episodic detail for imagined future events. Moreover, while age was significantly associated with imagined episodic detail, this effect was strongly related to age-related changes in episodic retrieval rather than divergent thinking.

Assessing Climate Change Impacts for Military Installations in the Southwest United States During the Warm Season

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castro, C.

2013-05-01

Arid and semi-arid regions are experiencing some of the most adverse impacts of climate change with increased heat waves, droughts, and extreme weather. These events will likely exacerbate socioeconomic and political instabilities in regions where the United States has vital strategic interests and ongoing military operations. The Southwest U.S. is strategically important in that it houses some of the most spatially expansive and important military installations in the country. The majority of severe weather events in the Southwest occur in association with the North American monsoon system (NAMS), and current observational record has shown a 'wet gets wetter and dry gets drier' global monsoon precipitation trend. We seek to evaluate the warm season extreme weather projection in the Southwest U.S., and how the extremes can affect Department of Defense (DoD) military facilities in that region. A baseline methodology is being developed to select extreme warm season weather events based on historical sounding data and moisture surge observations from Gulf of California. Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)-type high resolution simulations will be performed for the extreme events identified from Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model simulations initiated from IPCC GCM and NCAR Reanalysis data in both climate control and climate change periods. The magnitude in extreme event changes will be analyzed, and the synoptic forcing patterns of the future severe thunderstorms will provide a guide line to assess if the military installations in the Southwest will become more or less susceptible to severe weather in the future.

Detection of High-Risk Atherosclerotic Plaque

PubMed Central

Fleg, Jerome L.; Stone, Gregg W.; Fayad, Zahi A.; Granada, Juan F.; Hatsukami, Thomas S.; Kolodgie, Frank D.; Ohayon, Jacques; Pettigrew, Roderic; Sabatine, Marc S.; Tearney, Guillermo; Waxman, Sergio; Domanski, Michael J.; Srinivas, Pothur R.; Narula, Jagat

2013-01-01

The leading cause of major morbidity and mortality in most countries around the world is atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, most commonly caused by thrombotic occlusion of a high-risk coronary plaque resulting in myocardial infarction or cardiac death, or embolization from a high-risk carotid plaque resulting in stroke. The lesions prone to result in such clinical events are termed vulnerable or high-risk plaques, and their identification may lead to the development of pharmacological and mechanical intervention strategies to prevent such events. Autopsy studies from patients dying of acute myocardial infarction or sudden death have shown that such events typically arise from specific types of atherosclerotic plaques, most commonly the thin-cap fibroatheroma. However, the search in human beings for vulnerable plaques before their becoming symptomatic has been elusive. Recently, the PROSPECT (Providing Regional Observations to Study Predictors of Events in the Coronary Tree) study demonstrated that coronary plaques that are likely to cause future cardiac events, regardless of angiographic severity, are characterized by large plaque burden and small lumen area and/or are thin-cap fibroatheromas verified by radiofrequency intravascular ultrasound imaging. This study opened the door to identifying additional invasive and noninvasive imaging modalities that may improve detection of high-risk atherosclerotic lesions and patients. Beyond classic risk factors, novel biomarkers and genetic profiling may identify those patients in whom noninvasive imaging for vulnerable plaque screening, followed by invasive imaging for risk confirmation is warranted, and in whom future pharmacological and/or device-based focal or regional therapies may be applied to improve long-term prognosis. PMID:22974808

Fluence-based and microdosimetric event-based methods for radiation protection in space

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Curtis, Stanley B.; Meinhold, C. B. (Principal Investigator)

2002-01-01

The National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements (NCRP) has recently published a report (Report #137) that discusses various aspects of the concepts used in radiation protection and the difficulties in measuring the radiation environment in spacecraft for the estimation of radiation risk to space travelers. Two novel dosimetric methodologies, fluence-based and microdosimetric event-based methods, are discussed and evaluated, along with the more conventional quality factor/LET method. It was concluded that for the present, any reason to switch to a new methodology is not compelling. It is suggested that because of certain drawbacks in the presently-used conventional method, these alternative methodologies should be kept in mind. As new data become available and dosimetric techniques become more refined, the question should be revisited and that in the future, significant improvement might be realized. In addition, such concepts as equivalent dose and organ dose equivalent are discussed and various problems regarding the measurement/estimation of these quantities are presented.

Preventing the collapse of the Baltic cod stock through an ecosystem-based management approach

PubMed Central

Lindegren, Martin; Möllmann, Christian; Nielsen, Anders; Stenseth, Nils C.

2009-01-01

Worldwide a number of fish stocks have collapsed because of overfishing and climate-induced ecosystem changes. Developing ecosystem-based fisheries management (EBFM) to prevent these catastrophic events in the future requires ecological models incorporating both internal food-web dynamics and external drivers such as fishing and climate. Using a stochastic food-web model for a large marine ecosystem (i.e., the Baltic Sea) hosting a commercially important cod stock, we were able to reconstruct the history of the stock. Moreover we demonstrate that in hindsight the collapse could only have been avoidable by adapting fishing pressure to environmental conditions and food-web interactions. The modeling approach presented here represents a significant advance for EBFM, the application of which is important for sustainable resource management in the future. PMID:19706557

What We Talk About When We Talk About Drought: Tree-ring Perspectives on Model-Data Comparisons in Hydroclimate Research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cook, B.; Anchukaitis, K. J.

2017-12-01

Comparative analyses of paleoclimate reconstructions and climate model simulations can provide valuable insights into past and future climate events. Conducting meaningful and quantitative comparisons, however, can be difficult for a variety of reasons. Here, we use tree-ring based hydroclimate reconstructions to discuss some best practices for paleoclimate-model comparisons, highlighting recent studies that have successfully used this approach. These analyses have improved our understanding of the Medieval-era megadroughts, ocean forcing of large scale drought patterns, and even climate change contributions to future drought risk. Additional work is needed, however, to better reconcile and formalize uncertainties across observed, modeled, and reconstructed variables. In this regard, process based forward models of proxy-systems will likely be a critical tool moving forward.

The role of hunger state and dieting history in neural response to food cues: An event-related potential study.

PubMed

Feig, Emily H; Winter, Samantha R; Kounios, John; Erickson, Brian; Berkowitz, Staci A; Lowe, Michael R

2017-10-01

A history of dieting to lose weight has been shown to be a robust predictor of future weight gain. A potential factor in propensity towards weight gain is the nature of people's reactions to the abundance of highly palatable food cues in the environment. Event Related Potentials (ERPs) have revealed differences in how the brain processes food cues between obese and normal weight individuals, as well as between restrained and unrestrained eaters. However, comparisons by weight status are not informative regarding whether differences predate or follow weight gain in obese individuals and restrained eating has not consistently been found to predict future weight gain. The present study compared ERP responses to food cues in non-obese historic dieters (HDs) to non-obese never dieters (NDs). HDs showed a blunted N1 component relative to NDs overall, and delayed N1 and P2 components compared to NDs in the hungry state, suggesting that early, perceptual processing of food cues differs between these groups, especially when food-deprived. HDs also showed a more hunger-dependent sustained ERP (LPP) compared to NDs. Future research should test ERP-based food cue responsivity as a mediator between dieting history and future weight gain to better identify those most at risk for weight gain as well as the nature of their vulnerability. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

An Assessment of the Current LEO Debris Environment and the Need for Active Debris Removal

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liou, Jer-Chyi

2010-01-01

The anti-satellite test on the Fengun-1 C weather satellite in early 2007 and the collision between Iridium 33 and Cosmos 2251 in 2009 dramatically altered the landscape of the human-made orbital debris environment in the low Earth orbit (LEO). The two events generated approximately 5500 fragments large enough to be tracked by the U.S. Space Surveillance Network. Those fragments account for more than 60% increase to the debris population in LEO. However, even before the ASAT test, model analyses already indicated that the debris population (for those larger than 10 cm) in LEO had reached a point where the population would continue to increase, due to collisions among existing objects, even without any future launches. The conclusion implies that as satellites continue to be launched and unexpected breakup events continue to occur, commonly-adopted mitigation measures will not be able to stop the collision-driven population growth. To remediate the debris environment in LEO, active debris removal must be considered. This presentation will provide an updated assessment of the debris environment after the Iridium 33/Cosmos 2251 collision, an analysis of several future environment projections based on different scenarios, and a projection of collision activities in LEO in the near future. The need to use active debris removal to stabilize future debris environment will be demonstrated and the effectiveness of various active debris removal strategies will be quantified.

Future Heat Waves in Paris Metropolitan Area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beaulant, A.; Lemonsu, A.; Somot, S.; Masson, V.

2010-12-01

Cities are particularly vulnerable to heat waves, firstly because they concentrate the majority of the population and, secondly because the heat island that characterizes the urban climate exacerbates heat wave effects. This work is part of the interdisciplinary VURCA project (Vulnerability of cities to heat waves), which deals with the evolution of heat wave events in the context of global warming, urban vulnerability and adaptation strategies. The aim of this study is to analyse urban heat wave events in present climate (1950-2009) and their evolution in an enhanced greenhouse gazes future climate (2010-2100). We used daily observations of temperature from several stations covering Paris metropolitan area and climate projections following three different IPCC-SRES scenarios (B1, A1B, A2) and issued from several ENSEMBLES regional climate models. The heat wave definition is based on the indexes of the operational French warning system. A heat wave is detected within observed or simulated time-series by a heat wave peak, when the temperatures exceed the value of the 99.9th percentile. Its duration is determined by all adjacent days to this peak, for which the temperatures are not durably smaller than the 99.9th percentile value minus 2 °C. The 99.9th percentile threshold is inferred from quantile-quantile plots produced for each climate model in comparison with observations for the reference period 1950-2000. Heat waves have been extracted within observations and 12 climatic simulations. The number of heat wave events and cumulated HW days per year have been calculated, the maximum being seven heat waves cumulating more than 60 HW days in one year in the case of the A2 scenario and until 50 days in the case of the more moderate A1B scenario. From 2050, the occurrence of three or four HW events per year is becoming the norm all scenarios taken together. The evolution of heat wave features has been analysed, highlighting the large variability of the climatic simulations, but also an overall trend to an increase in frequency and duration but less significantly in intensity. Further work will be carried out in order to assess the sensitivity of the Paris urban climate to different future heat wave events. Synthetic HW events will be built from future HW features as duration and intensity, and will be simulated using a urban-weather model. Then, the impacts in terms of energy consumption and bioclimatic comfort will be analysed and adaptation strategies will be proposed.

The association between previous and future severe exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: Updating the literature using robust statistical methodology.

PubMed

Sadatsafavi, Mohsen; Xie, Hui; Etminan, Mahyar; Johnson, Kate; FitzGerald, J Mark

2018-01-01

There is minimal evidence on the extent to which the occurrence of a severe acute exacerbation of COPD that results in hospitalization affects the subsequent disease course. Previous studies on this topic did not generate causally-interpretable estimates. Our aim was to use corrected methodology to update previously reported estimates of the associations between previous and future exacerbations in these patients. Using administrative health data in British Columbia, Canada (1997-2012), we constructed a cohort of patients with at least one severe exacerbation, defined as an episode of inpatient care with the main diagnosis of COPD based on international classification of diseases (ICD) codes. We applied a random-effects 'joint frailty' survival model that is particularly developed for the analysis of recurrent events in the presence of competing risk of death and heterogeneity among individuals in their rate of events. Previous severe exacerbations entered the model as dummy-coded time-dependent covariates, and the model was adjusted for several observable patient and disease characteristics. 35,994 individuals (mean age at baseline 73.7, 49.8% female, average follow-up 3.21 years) contributed 34,271 severe exacerbations during follow-up. The first event was associated with a hazard ratio (HR) of 1.75 (95%CI 1.69-1.82) for the risk of future severe exacerbations. This risk decreased to HR = 1.36 (95%CI 1.30-1.42) for the second event and to 1.18 (95%CI 1.12-1.25) for the third event. The first two severe exacerbations that occurred during follow-up were also significantly associated with increased risk of all-cause mortality. There was substantial heterogeneity in the individual-specific rate of severe exacerbations. Even after adjusting for observable characteristics, individuals in the 97.5th percentile of exacerbation rate had 5.6 times higher rate of severe exacerbations than those in the 2.5th percentile. Using robust statistical methodology that controlled for heterogeneity in exacerbation rates among individuals, we demonstrated potential causal associations among past and future severe exacerbations, albeit the magnitude of association was noticeably lower than previously reported. The prevention of severe exacerbations has the potential to modify the disease trajectory.

The relative importance of real-time in-cab and external feedback in managing fatigue in real-world commercial transport operations.

PubMed

Fitzharris, Michael; Liu, Sara; Stephens, Amanda N; Lenné, Michael G

2017-05-29

Real-time driver monitoring systems represent a solution to address key behavioral risks as they occur, particularly distraction and fatigue. The efficacy of these systems in real-world settings is largely unknown. This article has three objectives: (1) to document the incidence and duration of fatigue in real-world commercial truck-driving operations, (2) to determine the reduction, if any, in the incidence of fatigue episodes associated with providing feedback, and (3) to tease apart the relative contribution of in-cab warnings from 24/7 monitoring and feedback to employers. Data collected from a commercially available in-vehicle camera-based driver monitoring system installed in a commercial truck fleet operating in Australia were analyzed. The real-time driver monitoring system makes continuous assessments of driver drowsiness based on eyelid position and other factors. Data were collected in a baseline period where no feedback was provided to drivers. Real-time feedback to drivers then occurred via in-cab auditory and haptic warnings, which were further enhanced by direct feedback by company management when fatigue events were detected by external 24/7 monitors. Fatigue incidence rates and their timing of occurrence across the three time periods were compared. Relative to no feedback being provided to drivers when fatigue events were detected, in-cab warnings resulted in a 66% reduction in fatigue events, with a 95% reduction achieved by the real-time provision of direct feedback in addition to in-cab warnings (p < 0.01). With feedback, fatigue events were shorter in duration a d occurred later in the trip, and fewer drivers had more than one verified fatigue event per trip. That the provision of feedback to the company on driver fatigue events in real time provides greater benefit than feedback to the driver alone has implications for companies seeking to mitigate risks associated with fatigue. Having fewer fatigue events is likely a reflection of the device itself and the accompanying safety culture of the company in terms of how the information is used. Data were analysed on a per-truck trip basis, and the findings are indicative of fatigue events in a large-scale commercial transport fleet. Future research ought to account for individual driver performance, which was not possible with the available data in this retrospective analysis. Evidence that real-time driver monitoring feedback is effective in reducing fatigue events is invaluable in the development of fleet safety policies, and of future national policy and vehicle safety regulations. Implications for automotive driver monitoring are discussed.

Nuclear Electric Magnetohydrodynamic Propulsion for Submarine

DTIC Science & Technology

1989-05-01

develop - ment strategies for the future. The base program includes the development of the LMFBR, and HTGR to...events. Oxide fuel is -134- being retained as a backup, pending the outcome of the metal fuel development program . The design allows for a quick fuel ... HTGR plants can be developed with much higher source temperature and core power density. High efficiency and low power den- sity characteristics

Maritime Pre-Positioning Force-Future: Bill Payer or Sea Basing Enabler?

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-03-25

Ship Building Plan , UAV CLASSIFICATION: Unclassified Actions at sea no longer suffice to influence world events; actions from the sea must...in amphibious ships or fall victim to an untenable Navy ship building plan . Premature consideration of cost issues hindered MPF-F program...fiscal environment and an illusory Navy ship building plan . Given the demonstrated capability and success of the current Maritime Pre-positioning

Current Status and Future Challenges in Risk-Based Radiation Engineering

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pellish, Jonathan A.

2017-01-01

This presentation covers the basis and challenges for radiation effects in electronic systems. The three main types of radiation effects in electronics are: 1) total ionizing dose (TID), 2) total non-ionizing dose (TNID) / displacement damage dose (DDD), and 3) single-event effect (SEE). Some content on relevant examples of effects, current concerns, and possible environmental model-driven solutions are also included.

Back from the future: Volitional postdiction of perceived apparent motion direction.

PubMed

Sun, Liwei; Frank, Sebastian M; Hartstein, Kevin C; Hassan, Wassim; Tse, Peter U

2017-11-01

Among physical events, it is impossible that an event could alter its own past for the simple reason that past events precede future events, and not vice versa. Moreover, to do so would invoke impossible self-causation. However, mental events are constructed by physical neuronal processes that take a finite duration to execute. Given this fact, it is conceivable that later brain events could alter the ongoing interpretation of previous brain events if they arrive within this finite duration of interpretive processing, before a commitment is made to what happened. In the current study, we show that humans can volitionally influence how they perceive an ambiguous apparent motion sequence, as long as the top-down command occurs up to 300ms after the occurrence of the actual motion event in the world. This finding supports the view that there is a temporal integration period over which perception is constructed on the basis of both bottom-up and top-down inputs. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Lifespan Perspective on Terrorism: Age Differences in Trajectories of Response to 9/11

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Scott, Stacey B.; Poulin, Michael J.; Silver, Roxane Cohen

2013-01-01

A terrorist attack is an adverse event characterized by both an event-specific stressor and concern about future threats. Little is known about age differences in responses to terrorism. This longitudinal study examined generalized distress, posttraumatic stress responses, and fear of future attacks following the September 11, 2001 (9/11)…

When the Future Feels Worse than the Past: A Temporal Inconsistency in Moral Judgment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Caruso, Eugene M.

2010-01-01

Logically, an unethical behavior performed yesterday should also be unethical if performed tomorrow. However, the present studies suggest that the timing of a transgression has a systematic effect on people's beliefs about its moral acceptability. Because people's emotional reactions tend to be more extreme for future events than for past events,…

Technology Forecasting for the Purpose of Predicting Employment Growth

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Smith, Cormac

2016-01-01

Throughout history, there has been a great emphasis placed on the ability to predict future events. The value of such prognostication varies between situations and domains, but the objective remains the same. Is it possible to use current or past observations to forecast future events? One specific area in which such insight is sought after is the…

Teaching Physics to Future Presidents

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jacobsen, Bob

2015-03-01

We present Berkeley's ``Physics for Future Presidents'' course. Created by Prof. Richard Muller, this is an introductory course aimed at preparing our students to make decisions in a physical, technological world. Organized around large topical areas like ``Energy,'' ``Gravity and Force,'' ``Nuclei and Radioactivity,'' and ``Invisible Light,'' we can cover in some depth the scientific issues involved in large-scale energy production via renewable and non-renewable resources, satellites including capabilities and limitations, nuclear power production including risk and waste, UV exposure including discussion of the ozone layer and cancer risk, etc. Although only a small bit of algebra is used, it's a deeply quantitative course. The class is structured around (1) traditional text readings and homework for basic material (2) demo- and discussion-based lectures and (3) readings and essays based on current articles and events. This third component raises student engagement and improves their reasoning & skeptical skills. It also makes the course challenging for both STEM and non-STEM students, and for future teachers.

Tracking the Construction of Episodic Future Thoughts

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

D'Argembeau, Arnaud; Mathy, Arnaud

2011-01-01

The ability to mentally simulate possible futures ("episodic future thinking") is of fundamental importance for various aspects of human cognition and behavior, but precisely how humans construct mental representations of future events is still essentially unknown. We suggest that episodic future thoughts consist of transitory patterns…

Assessing present and future climate changes in Siberia and their regional socioeconomic consequences using a web-based big data geoprocessing platform

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alexeev, V. A.; Gordov, E. P.

2016-12-01

Recently initiated collaborative research project is presented. Its main objective is to develop high spatial and temporal resolution datasets for studying the ongoing and future climate changes in Siberia, caused by global and regional processes in the atmosphere and the ocean. This goal will be achieved by using a set of regional and global climate models for the analysis of the mechanisms of climate change and quantitative assessment of changes in key climate variables, including analysis of extreme weather and climate events and their dynamics, evaluation of the frequency, amplitude and the risks caused by the extreme events in the region. The main practical application of the project is to provide experts, stakeholders and the public with quantitative information about the future climate change in Siberia obtained on the base of a computational web- geoinformation platform. The thematic platform will be developed in order to facilitate processing and analysis of high resolution georeferenced datasets that will be delivered and made available to scientific community, policymakes and other end users as a result of the project. Software packages will be developed to implement calculation of various climatological indicators in order to characterize and diagnose climate change and its dynamics, as well as to archive results in digital form of electronic maps (GIS layers). By achieving these goals the project will provide science based tools necessary for developing mitigation measures for adapting to climate change and reducing negative impact on the population and infrastructure of the region. Financial support of the computational web- geoinformation platform prototype development by the RF Ministry of Education and Science under Agreement 14.613.21.0037 (RFMEFI61315X0037) is acknowledged.

Manual B-mode versus automated radio-frequency carotid intima-media thickness measurements.

PubMed

Dogan, Soner; Plantinga, Yvonne; Dijk, Joke M; van der Graaf, Yolanda; Grobbee, Diederick E; Bots, Michiel L

2009-10-01

Carotid intima-media thickness (CIMT) serves as an indicator of atherosclerosis and cardiovascular risk. Manual measurements of B-mode ultrasound images are the most applied method. Automated measurements with radiofrequency (RF) ultrasound have been suggested as an alternative. The aim of this study was to compare these methods in terms of risk-factor relations and associations with future events. Data from participants of the Second Manifestations of Arterial Disease (SMART) study were used. Far wall common CIMT was measured online with manual B-mode and automated RF ultrasound. Measurements were performed by a group of 6 sonographers. Risk-factor information was obtained. All participants were followed for the occurrence of vascular events (mean follow-up, 2.1 years). CIMT was related to risk factors with linear regression models and to future events with Cox proportional-hazards models. Data were available for 2,146 participants. Agreement between the methods was modest (intraclass correlation coefficient = 0.34). Risk-factor relations with age and systolic blood pressure were stronger for B-mode than for RF ultrasound. Association with future events was better for B-mode than for RF ultrasound (vascular death, 1.27 vs 1.00; ischemic stroke, 1.45 vs 1.03). In participants with CIMT < 0.9 mm (without plaque), the intraclass correlation between the measures was 0.50. In addition, in that subgroup, RF ultrasound showed a stronger association with future events than B-mode ultrasound (all events, 1.59 vs 1.09; vascular death, 1.72 vs 0.93; coronary ischemic events, 1.65 vs 1.05). The preference for either B-mode or RF measurements may be driven by the type of study population, the expected presence of local atherosclerotic abnormalities, and the main aim of the study (assessing risk factors or events). However, in this study, as in many others, the B-mode approach was shown to be robust in risk-factor relations and the prediction of events.

Measurement of Muon Neutrino Quasielastic Scattering on Carbon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aguilar-Arevalo, A. A.; Bazarko, A. O.; Brice, S. J.; Brown, B. C.; Bugel, L.; Cao, J.; Coney, L.; Conrad, J. M.; Cox, D. C.; Curioni, A.; Djurcic, Z.; Finley, D. A.; Fleming, B. T.; Ford, R.; Garcia, F. G.; Garvey, G. T.; Green, C.; Green, J. A.; Hart, T. L.; Hawker, E.; Imlay, R.; Johnson, R. A.; Kasper, P.; Katori, T.; Kobilarcik, T.; Kourbanis, I.; Koutsoliotas, S.; Laird, E. M.; Link, J. M.; Liu, Y.; Liu, Y.; Louis, W. C.; Mahn, K. B. M.; Marsh, W.; Martin, P. S.; McGregor, G.; Metcalf, W.; Meyers, P. D.; Mills, F.; Mills, G. B.; Monroe, J.; Moore, C. D.; Nelson, R. H.; Nienaber, P.; Ouedraogo, S.; Patterson, R. B.; Perevalov, D.; Polly, C. C.; Prebys, E.; Raaf, J. L.; Ray, H.; Roe, B. P.; Russell, A. D.; Sandberg, V.; Schirato, R.; Schmitz, D.; Shaevitz, M. H.; Shoemaker, F. C.; Smith, D.; Sorel, M.; Spentzouris, P.; Stancu, I.; Stefanski, R. J.; Sung, M.; Tanaka, H. A.; Tayloe, R.; Tzanov, M.; van de Water, R.; Wascko, M. O.; White, D. H.; Wilking, M. J.; Yang, H. J.; Zeller, G. P.; Zimmerman, E. D.

2008-01-01

The observation of neutrino oscillations is clear evidence for physics beyond the standard model. To make precise measurements of this phenomenon, neutrino oscillation experiments, including MiniBooNE, require an accurate description of neutrino charged current quasielastic (CCQE) cross sections to predict signal samples. Using a high-statistics sample of νμ CCQE events, MiniBooNE finds that a simple Fermi gas model, with appropriate adjustments, accurately characterizes the CCQE events observed in a carbon-based detector. The extracted parameters include an effective axial mass, MAeff=1.23±0.20GeV, that describes the four-momentum dependence of the axial-vector form factor of the nucleon, and a Pauli-suppression parameter, κ=1.019±0.011. Such a modified Fermi gas model may also be used by future accelerator-based experiments measuring neutrino oscillations on nuclear targets.

Eruptive event generator based on the Gibson-Low magnetic configuration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borovikov, D.; Sokolov, I. V.; Manchester, W. B.; Jin, M.; Gombosi, T. I.

2017-08-01

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs), a kind of energetic solar eruptions, are an integral subject of space weather research. Numerical magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) modeling, which requires powerful computational resources, is one of the primary means of studying the phenomenon. With increasing accessibility of such resources, grows the demand for user-friendly tools that would facilitate the process of simulating CMEs for scientific and operational purposes. The Eruptive Event Generator based on Gibson-Low flux rope (EEGGL), a new publicly available computational model presented in this paper, is an effort to meet this demand. EEGGL allows one to compute the parameters of a model flux rope driving a CME via an intuitive graphical user interface. We provide a brief overview of the physical principles behind EEGGL and its functionality. Ways toward future improvements of the tool are outlined.

The Ontology of Vaccine Adverse Events (OVAE) and its usage in representing and analyzing adverse events associated with US-licensed human vaccines.

PubMed

Marcos, Erica; Zhao, Bin; He, Yongqun

2013-11-26

Licensed human vaccines can induce various adverse events (AE) in vaccinated patients. Due to the involvement of the whole immune system and complex immunological reactions after vaccination, it is difficult to identify the relations among vaccines, adverse events, and human populations in different age groups. Many known vaccine adverse events (VAEs) have been recorded in the package inserts of US-licensed commercial vaccine products. To better represent and analyze VAEs, we developed the Ontology of Vaccine Adverse Events (OVAE) as an extension of the Ontology of Adverse Events (OAE) and the Vaccine Ontology (VO). Like OAE and VO, OVAE is aligned with the Basic Formal Ontology (BFO). The commercial vaccines and adverse events in OVAE are imported from VO and OAE, respectively. A new population term 'human vaccinee population' is generated and used to define VAE occurrence. An OVAE design pattern is developed to link vaccine, adverse event, vaccinee population, age range, and VAE occurrence. OVAE has been used to represent and classify the adverse events recorded in package insert documents of commercial vaccines licensed by the USA Food and Drug Administration (FDA). OVAE currently includes over 1,300 terms, including 87 distinct types of VAEs associated with 63 human vaccines licensed in the USA. For each vaccine, occurrence rates for every VAE in different age groups have been logically represented in OVAE. SPARQL scripts were developed to query and analyze the OVAE knowledge base data. To demonstrate the usage of OVAE, the top 10 vaccines accompanying with the highest numbers of VAEs and the top 10 VAEs most frequently observed among vaccines were identified and analyzed. Asserted and inferred ontology hierarchies classify VAEs in different levels of AE groups. Different VAE occurrences in different age groups were also analyzed. The ontology-based data representation and integration using the FDA-approved information from the vaccine package insert documents enables the identification of adverse events from vaccination in relation to predefined parts of the population (age groups) and certain groups of vaccines. The resulting ontology-based VAE knowledge base classifies vaccine-specific VAEs and supports better VAE understanding and future rational AE prevention and treatment.

Stochastic Earthquake Rupture Modeling Using Nonparametric Co-Regionalization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Kyungbook; Song, Seok Goo

2017-09-01

Accurate predictions of the intensity and variability of ground motions are essential in simulation-based seismic hazard assessment. Advanced simulation-based ground motion prediction methods have been proposed to complement the empirical approach, which suffers from the lack of observed ground motion data, especially in the near-source region for large events. It is important to quantify the variability of the earthquake rupture process for future events and to produce a number of rupture scenario models to capture the variability in simulation-based ground motion predictions. In this study, we improved the previously developed stochastic earthquake rupture modeling method by applying the nonparametric co-regionalization, which was proposed in geostatistics, to the correlation models estimated from dynamically derived earthquake rupture models. The nonparametric approach adopted in this study is computationally efficient and, therefore, enables us to simulate numerous rupture scenarios, including large events ( M > 7.0). It also gives us an opportunity to check the shape of true input correlation models in stochastic modeling after being deformed for permissibility. We expect that this type of modeling will improve our ability to simulate a wide range of rupture scenario models and thereby predict ground motions and perform seismic hazard assessment more accurately.

Risk analysis based on hazards interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rossi, Lauro; Rudari, Roberto; Trasforini, Eva; De Angeli, Silvia; Becker, Joost

2017-04-01

Despite an increasing need for open, transparent, and credible multi-hazard risk assessment methods, models, and tools, the availability of comprehensive risk information needed to inform disaster risk reduction is limited, and the level of interaction across hazards is not systematically analysed. Risk assessment methodologies for different hazards often produce risk metrics that are not comparable. Hazard interactions (consecutive occurrence two or more different events) are generally neglected, resulting in strongly underestimated risk assessment in the most exposed areas. This study presents cases of interaction between different hazards, showing how subsidence can affect coastal and river flood risk (Jakarta and Bandung, Indonesia) or how flood risk is modified after a seismic event (Italy). The analysis of well documented real study cases, based on a combination between Earth Observation and in-situ data, would serve as basis the formalisation of a multi-hazard methodology, identifying gaps and research frontiers. Multi-hazard risk analysis is performed through the RASOR platform (Rapid Analysis and Spatialisation Of Risk). A scenario-driven query system allow users to simulate future scenarios based on existing and assumed conditions, to compare with historical scenarios, and to model multi-hazard risk both before and during an event (www.rasor.eu).

Spatiotemporal Interpolation Methods for Solar Event Trajectories

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Filali Boubrahimi, Soukaina; Aydin, Berkay; Schuh, Michael A.; Kempton, Dustin; Angryk, Rafal A.; Ma, Ruizhe

2018-05-01

This paper introduces four spatiotemporal interpolation methods that enrich complex, evolving region trajectories that are reported from a variety of ground-based and space-based solar observatories every day. Our interpolation module takes an existing solar event trajectory as its input and generates an enriched trajectory with any number of additional time–geometry pairs created by the most appropriate method. To this end, we designed four different interpolation techniques: MBR-Interpolation (Minimum Bounding Rectangle Interpolation), CP-Interpolation (Complex Polygon Interpolation), FI-Interpolation (Filament Polygon Interpolation), and Areal-Interpolation, which are presented here in detail. These techniques leverage k-means clustering, centroid shape signature representation, dynamic time warping, linear interpolation, and shape buffering to generate the additional polygons of an enriched trajectory. Using ground-truth objects, interpolation effectiveness is evaluated through a variety of measures based on several important characteristics that include spatial distance, area overlap, and shape (boundary) similarity. To our knowledge, this is the first research effort of this kind that attempts to address the broad problem of spatiotemporal interpolation of solar event trajectories. We conclude with a brief outline of future research directions and opportunities for related work in this area.

Valence-Dependent Belief Updating: Computational Validation

PubMed Central

Kuzmanovic, Bojana; Rigoux, Lionel

2017-01-01

People tend to update beliefs about their future outcomes in a valence-dependent way: they are likely to incorporate good news and to neglect bad news. However, belief formation is a complex process which depends not only on motivational factors such as the desire for favorable conclusions, but also on multiple cognitive variables such as prior beliefs, knowledge about personal vulnerabilities and resources, and the size of the probabilities and estimation errors. Thus, we applied computational modeling in order to test for valence-induced biases in updating while formally controlling for relevant cognitive factors. We compared biased and unbiased Bayesian models of belief updating, and specified alternative models based on reinforcement learning. The experiment consisted of 80 trials with 80 different adverse future life events. In each trial, participants estimated the base rate of one of these events and estimated their own risk of experiencing the event before and after being confronted with the actual base rate. Belief updates corresponded to the difference between the two self-risk estimates. Valence-dependent updating was assessed by comparing trials with good news (better-than-expected base rates) with trials with bad news (worse-than-expected base rates). After receiving bad relative to good news, participants' updates were smaller and deviated more strongly from rational Bayesian predictions, indicating a valence-induced bias. Model comparison revealed that the biased (i.e., optimistic) Bayesian model of belief updating better accounted for data than the unbiased (i.e., rational) Bayesian model, confirming that the valence of the new information influenced the amount of updating. Moreover, alternative computational modeling based on reinforcement learning demonstrated higher learning rates for good than for bad news, as well as a moderating role of personal knowledge. Finally, in this specific experimental context, the approach based on reinforcement learning was superior to the Bayesian approach. The computational validation of valence-dependent belief updating represents a novel support for a genuine optimism bias in human belief formation. Moreover, the precise control of relevant cognitive variables justifies the conclusion that the motivation to adopt the most favorable self-referential conclusions biases human judgments. PMID:28706499

Valence-Dependent Belief Updating: Computational Validation.

PubMed

Kuzmanovic, Bojana; Rigoux, Lionel

2017-01-01

People tend to update beliefs about their future outcomes in a valence-dependent way: they are likely to incorporate good news and to neglect bad news. However, belief formation is a complex process which depends not only on motivational factors such as the desire for favorable conclusions, but also on multiple cognitive variables such as prior beliefs, knowledge about personal vulnerabilities and resources, and the size of the probabilities and estimation errors. Thus, we applied computational modeling in order to test for valence-induced biases in updating while formally controlling for relevant cognitive factors. We compared biased and unbiased Bayesian models of belief updating, and specified alternative models based on reinforcement learning. The experiment consisted of 80 trials with 80 different adverse future life events. In each trial, participants estimated the base rate of one of these events and estimated their own risk of experiencing the event before and after being confronted with the actual base rate. Belief updates corresponded to the difference between the two self-risk estimates. Valence-dependent updating was assessed by comparing trials with good news (better-than-expected base rates) with trials with bad news (worse-than-expected base rates). After receiving bad relative to good news, participants' updates were smaller and deviated more strongly from rational Bayesian predictions, indicating a valence-induced bias. Model comparison revealed that the biased (i.e., optimistic) Bayesian model of belief updating better accounted for data than the unbiased (i.e., rational) Bayesian model, confirming that the valence of the new information influenced the amount of updating. Moreover, alternative computational modeling based on reinforcement learning demonstrated higher learning rates for good than for bad news, as well as a moderating role of personal knowledge. Finally, in this specific experimental context, the approach based on reinforcement learning was superior to the Bayesian approach. The computational validation of valence-dependent belief updating represents a novel support for a genuine optimism bias in human belief formation. Moreover, the precise control of relevant cognitive variables justifies the conclusion that the motivation to adopt the most favorable self-referential conclusions biases human judgments.

SU43. The Effect of Implementation Intention on Different Types of Prospective Memory Performance in Patients With Schizophrenia

PubMed Central

Wang, Ya; Liu, Lu-lu; Gan, Ming-yuan; Tan, Shu-ping; Shum, David; Chan, Raymond

2017-01-01

Abstract Background: Prospective memory (PM) refers to remembering to execute a planned intention in the future, which can been divided as event-based PM (focal, nonfocal) and time-based PM according to the nature of the cue. Focal event-based PM, where the ongoing task requires processing of the characteristics of PM cues, has been found to be benefited from implementation intention (II, ie, an encoding strategy in the format of “if I see X, then I will do Y”). However, to date, it is unclear whether implementation intention can produce a positive effect on nonfocal event-based PM (where the ongoing task is irrelevant with the PM cues) and time-based PM. Moreover, patients with schizophrenia (SCZ) were found to have impairments in these types of PM, and few studies have been conducted to examine the effect of II on these types of PM. This study investigated whether (and how) implementation intention can improve nonfocal event-based PM and time-based PM performance in patients with SCZ. Methods: Forty-two patients with SCZ and 42 healthy control participants were administered both computerized nonfocal event-based PM task and time-based PM task. Patients and healthy controls were further randomly allocated to implementation intention condition (N = 21) and typical instruction condition (N = 21). Results: Patients with SCZ in the implementation intention group showed higher PM accuracy than the typical instruction group in both nonfocal event-based PM task (0.51 ± 0.32 vs 0.19 ± 0.29, t(40) = 3.39, P = .002) and time-based PM task (0.72 ± 0.31 vs 0.39 ± 0.40, t(40) = 2.98, P = .005). Similarly, healthy controls in the II group also showed better PM performance than the typical instruction group in both tasks (all P’s < 0.05). Time check frequency of time-based PM task in the II group of all the participants was significantly higher than the typical instruction group. Conclusion: Implementation intention is an effective strategy for improving different types of PM performance in patients with schizophrenia and can be applied for clinical settings.

Expectations for Future Relationship Satisfaction: Unique Sources and Critical Implications for Commitment

PubMed Central

Baker, Levi R.; McNulty, James K.; VanderDrift, Laura E.

2017-01-01

Contemporary perspectives on relationship commitment posit that intimates decide whether or not to maintain a relationship based on their commitment to that relationship, and that they base such commitment partially on their current satisfaction with that relationship. Nevertheless, given that ending a relationship requires knowing about both the current state of the relationship and the likely future state of the relationship, we propose that people base their commitment to a relationship more on their expected future satisfaction with the relationship than on their current satisfaction with that relationship. Six studies provided evidence for these ideas. Study 1 demonstrated that expected satisfaction is shaped by not only current satisfaction but also several unique indicators of the likelihood of future satisfaction, including anticipated life events, plans to improve the relationship, and individual differences. Then, using a combination of cross-sectional, experimental, and longitudinal methods, Studies 2–6 demonstrated that (a) expected satisfaction was a stronger predictor of relationship commitment, maintenance behaviors, and/or divorce than was current satisfaction and (b) expected satisfaction mediated the association between current satisfaction and these outcomes. These findings highlight not only the need to incorporate expected satisfaction into extent perspectives on commitment, but also the importance of expectations for decision-making processes more broadly. PMID:28368196

Estimating floodwater depths from flood inundation maps and topography

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cohen, Sagy; Brakenridge, G. Robert; Kettner, Albert; Bates, Bradford; Nelson, Jonathan M.; McDonald, Richard R.; Huang, Yu-Fen; Munasinghe, Dinuke; Zhang, Jiaqi

2018-01-01

Information on flood inundation extent is important for understanding societal exposure, water storage volumes, flood wave attenuation, future flood hazard, and other variables. A number of organizations now provide flood inundation maps based on satellite remote sensing. These data products can efficiently and accurately provide the areal extent of a flood event, but do not provide floodwater depth, an important attribute for first responders and damage assessment. Here we present a new methodology and a GIS-based tool, the Floodwater Depth Estimation Tool (FwDET), for estimating floodwater depth based solely on an inundation map and a digital elevation model (DEM). We compare the FwDET results against water depth maps derived from hydraulic simulation of two flood events, a large-scale event for which we use medium resolution input layer (10 m) and a small-scale event for which we use a high-resolution (LiDAR; 1 m) input. Further testing is performed for two inundation maps with a number of challenging features that include a narrow valley, a large reservoir, and an urban setting. The results show FwDET can accurately calculate floodwater depth for diverse flooding scenarios but also leads to considerable bias in locations where the inundation extent does not align well with the DEM. In these locations, manual adjustment or higher spatial resolution input is required.

A Chinese cave links climate change, social impacts, and human adaptation over the last 500 years.

PubMed

Tan, Liangcheng; Cai, Yanjun; An, Zhisheng; Cheng, Hai; Shen, Chuan-Chou; Breitenbach, Sebastian F M; Gao, Yongli; Edwards, R Lawrence; Zhang, Haiwei; Du, Yajuan

2015-08-13

The collapse of some pre-historical and historical cultures, including Chinese dynasties were presumably linked to widespread droughts, on the basis of synchronicities of societal crises and proxy-based climate events. Here, we present a comparison of ancient inscriptions in Dayu Cave from Qinling Mountains, central China, which described accurate times and detailed impacts of seven drought events during the period of 1520-1920 CE, with high-resolution speleothem records from the same cave. The comparable results provide unique and robust tests on relationships among speleothem δ(18)O changes, drought events, and societal unrest. With direct historical evidences, our results suggest that droughts and even modest events interrupting otherwise wet intervals can cause serious social crises. Modeling results of speleothem δ(18)O series suggest that future precipitation in central China may be below the average of the past 500 years. As Qinling Mountain is the main recharge area of two large water transfer projects and habitats of many endangered species, it is imperative to explore an adaptive strategy for the decline in precipitation and/or drought events.

A Chinese cave links climate change, social impacts, and human adaptation over the last 500 years

PubMed Central

Tan, Liangcheng; Cai, Yanjun; An, Zhisheng; Cheng, Hai; Shen, Chuan-Chou; Breitenbach, Sebastian F. M.; Gao, Yongli; Edwards, R. Lawrence; Zhang, Haiwei; Du, Yajuan

2015-01-01

The collapse of some pre-historical and historical cultures, including Chinese dynasties were presumably linked to widespread droughts, on the basis of synchronicities of societal crises and proxy-based climate events. Here, we present a comparison of ancient inscriptions in Dayu Cave from Qinling Mountains, central China, which described accurate times and detailed impacts of seven drought events during the period of 1520–1920 CE, with high-resolution speleothem records from the same cave. The comparable results provide unique and robust tests on relationships among speleothem δ18O changes, drought events, and societal unrest. With direct historical evidences, our results suggest that droughts and even modest events interrupting otherwise wet intervals can cause serious social crises. Modeling results of speleothem δ18O series suggest that future precipitation in central China may be below the average of the past 500 years. As Qinling Mountain is the main recharge area of two large water transfer projects and habitats of many endangered species, it is imperative to explore an adaptive strategy for the decline in precipitation and/or drought events. PMID:26270656

Obstetricians and the 2009-2010 H1N1 vaccination effort: implications for future pandemics.

PubMed

Clark, Sarah J; Cowan, Anne E; Wortley, Pascale M

2013-09-01

Our objective was to describe the experiences of obstetricians during the 2009-2010 H1N1 vaccination campaign in order to identify possible improvements for future pandemic situations. We conducted a cross-sectional mail survey of a national random sample of 4,000 obstetricians, fielded in Summer 2010. Survey items included availability, recommendation, and patient acceptance of H1N1 vaccine; prioritization of H1N1 vaccine when supply was limited; problems with H1N1 vaccination; and likelihood of providing vaccine during a future influenza pandemic. Response rate was 66 %. Obstetricians strongly recommended H1N1 vaccine during the second (85 %) and third (86 %) trimesters, and less often during the first trimester (71 %) or the immediate postpartum period (76 %); patient preferences followed a similar pattern. H1N1 vaccine was typically available in outpatient obstetrics clinics (80 %). Overall vaccine supply was a major problem for 30 % of obstetricians, but few rated lack of thimerosal-free vaccine as a major problem (12 %). Over half of obstetricians had no major problems with the H1N1 vaccine campaign. Based on this experience, 74 % would be "very likely" and 12 % "likely" to provide vaccine in the event of a future influenza pandemic. Most obstetricians strongly recommended H1N1 vaccine, had few logistical problems beyond limited vaccine supply, and are willing to vaccinate in a future pandemic. Addressing concerns about first-trimester vaccination, developing guidance for prioritization of vaccine in the event of severe supply constraints, and continued facilitation of the logistical aspects of vaccination should be emphasized in future influenza pandemics.

Crucible of Creativity: Testing Public Outreach Activities at the Phoenix Comicon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horodyskyj, L.

2015-12-01

The Phoenix Comicon (PCC) is a growing four-day pop culture event that features guests, costuming, exhibits, and discussion panels for popular sci-fi, fantasy, horror, and anime franchises. The 2014 and 2015 shows (which drew 75,000+ unique attendees each) featured a science programming track coordinated and organized by Horodyskyj. The track consisted of discussion panels, mixers, shows, interactive displays, and signature events (over 30 hours of programming each year). Topics ranged from planetary sciences to biotechnology to artificial intelligence and event staff were recruited from all levels of experience in academia, industry, and STEM outreach. The PCC science programming track for both 2014 and 2015 received very positive feedback from the audience, PCC management, and even scientists who participated in the event. Panelists and staff received frequent unsolicited praise about the content and events, and surveys showed requests for more science content in future years. Demand for good science programming, especially the kind that links the audience to local scientists, is high. The unique organizational structure of PCC, which draws heavily on the fan community rather than industry professionals, provides a rich test bed for public outreach activities generated by scientists themselves. In 2014, we tested science-based game shows, such as the bloody Exoplanet Survivor. In 2015, we ran a science interactivity booth and an interactive stage show about forensics based on the BBC series Sherlock. I will detail some of the successes and failures of these various events and what we're planning for 2016.

Engaging Communities in Identifying Local Strategies for Expanding Integrated Employment During and After High School.

PubMed

Carter, Erik W; Blustein, Carly L; Bumble, Jennifer L; Harvey, Sarah; Henderson, Lynnette M; McMillan, Elise D

2016-09-01

Amidst decades of attention directed toward improving employment outcomes for people with intellectual and developmental disabilities (IDD), few efforts have been made to engage communities in identifying local solutions for expanding integrated employment opportunities. We examined the implementation and outcomes of "community conversation" events held in 6 geographically and economically diverse locales. Each event used an asset-based dialogue approach called the World Café ( Brown & Isaacs, 2005 ) to solicit ideas from a broad cross-section of community members on improving integrated employment that reflect local priorities and possibilities. Six key themes encapsulated the 1,556 strategies generated by the almost 400 attendees. Although considerable consistency was found among the categories of strategies raised across events, the manner in which those individual strategies would be implemented locally reflected the unique accent of each community. Attendees also viewed these events as promising and productive pathways for identifying next steps for their community. We offer recommendations for community-level intervention efforts and suggest directions for future research.

On the Numerical Study of Heavy Rainfall in Taiwan

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tao, Wei-Kuo; Chen, Ching-Sen; Chen, Yi-Leng; Jou, Ben Jong-Dao; Lin, Pay-Liam; Starr, David OC. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

Heavy rainfall events are frequently observed over the western side of the CMR (central mountain range), which runs through Taiwan in a north-south orientation, in a southwesterly flow regime and over the northeastern side of the CMR in a northeasterly flow regime. Previous studies have revealed the mechanisms by which the heavy rainfall events are formed. Some of them have examined characteristics of the heavy rainfall via numerical simulations. In this paper, some of the previous numerical studies on heavy rainfall events around Taiwan during the Mei-Yu season (May and June), summer (non-typhoon cases) and autumn will be reviewed. Associated mechanisms proposed from observational studies will be reviewed first, and then characteristics of numerically simulated heavy rainfall events will be presented. The formation mechanisms of heavy rainfall from simulated results and from observational analysis are then compared and discussed. Based on these previous modeling studies, we will also discuss what are the major observations and modeling processes which will be needed for understanding the heavy precipitation in the future.

Conceptual Model of Military Women's Life Events and Well-Being.

PubMed

Segal, Mady W; Lane, Michelle D

2016-01-01

This article presents a life course conceptual model and applies it to the study of military women's experiences and the effect of those life events on their well-being. Of special concern are the effects on women serving in direct combat jobs, as well as in any specialties operating in a hostile environment. Drawing on previous research, the model considers and gives examples of how a woman's well-being is affected by events in her military career, her family life, and other areas of life. The article emphasizes the effects of intersections of multiple events, as well as how the effects on well-being are mediated or moderated by other factors, including individual characteristics, military contextual variables, and resources. The analysis also includes the impacts of preventative and treatment interventions, as well as of policies, programs, and practices. Based on the model and on previous research, questions for future research are posed. Reprint & Copyright © 2016 Association of Military Surgeons of the U.S.

Adaptive constructive processes and memory accuracy: Consequences of counterfactual simulations in young and older adults

PubMed Central

Gerlach, Kathy D.; Dornblaser, David W.; Schacter, Daniel L.

2013-01-01

People frequently engage in counterfactual thinking: mental simulations of alternative outcomes to past events. Like simulations of future events, counterfactual simulations serve adaptive functions. However, future simulation can also result in various kinds of distortions and has thus been characterized as an adaptive constructive process. Here we approach counterfactual thinking as such and examine whether it can distort memory for actual events. In Experiments 1a/b, young and older adults imagined themselves experiencing different scenarios. Participants then imagined the same scenario again, engaged in no further simulation of a scenario, or imagined a counterfactual outcome. On a subsequent recognition test, participants were more likely to make false alarms to counterfactual lures than novel scenarios. Older adults were more prone to these memory errors than younger adults. In Experiment 2, younger and older participants selected and performed different actions, then recalled performing some of those actions, imagined performing alternative actions to some of the selected actions, and did not imagine others. Participants, especially older adults, were more likely to falsely remember counterfactual actions than novel actions as previously performed. The findings suggest that counterfactual thinking can cause source confusion based on internally generated misinformation, consistent with its characterization as an adaptive constructive process. PMID:23560477

Adaptive constructive processes and memory accuracy: consequences of counterfactual simulations in young and older adults.

PubMed

Gerlach, Kathy D; Dornblaser, David W; Schacter, Daniel L

2014-01-01

People frequently engage in counterfactual thinking: mental simulations of alternative outcomes to past events. Like simulations of future events, counterfactual simulations serve adaptive functions. However, future simulation can also result in various kinds of distortions and has thus been characterised as an adaptive constructive process. Here we approach counterfactual thinking as such and examine whether it can distort memory for actual events. In Experiments 1a/b young and older adults imagined themselves experiencing different scenarios. Participants then imagined the same scenario again, engaged in no further simulation of a scenario, or imagined a counterfactual outcome. On a subsequent recognition test participants were more likely to make false alarms to counterfactual lures than novel scenarios. Older adults were more prone to these memory errors than younger adults. In Experiment 2 younger and older participants selected and performed different actions, then recalled performing some of those actions, imagined performing alternative actions to some of the selected actions, and did not imagine others. Participants, especially older adults, were more likely to falsely remember counterfactual actions than novel actions as previously performed. The findings suggest that counterfactual thinking can cause source confusion based on internally generated misinformation, consistent with its characterisation as an adaptive constructive process.

A Synoptic Weather Typing Approach to Assess Climate Change Impacts on Meteorological and Hydrological Risks at Local Scale in South-Central Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, Chad Shouquan; Li, Qian; Li, Guilong

2010-05-01

The synoptic weather typing approach has become popular in evaluating the impacts of climate change on a variety of environmental problems. One of the reasons is its ability to categorize a complex set of meteorological variables as a coherent index, which can facilitate analyses of local climate change impacts. The weather typing method has been applied in Environment Canada to analyze climatic change impacts on various meteorological/hydrological risks, such as freezing rain, heavy rainfall, high-/low-flow events, air pollution, and human health. These studies comprise of three major parts: (1) historical simulation modeling to verify the hazardous events, (2) statistical downscaling to provide station-scale future climate information, and (3) estimates of changes in frequency and magnitude of future hazardous meteorological/hydrological events in this century. To achieve these goals, in addition to synoptic weather typing, the modeling conceptualizations in meteorology and hydrology and various linear/nonlinear regression techniques were applied. Furthermore, a formal model result verification process has been built into the entire modeling exercise. The results of the verification, based on historical observations of the outcome variables predicted by the models, showed very good agreement. This paper will briefly summarize these research projects, focusing on the modeling exercise and results.

Attitudes of pharmacy and nutrition students towards team-based care after first exposure to interprofessional education in Qatar.

PubMed

Wilby, Kyle John; Al-Abdi, Tamara; Hassan, Abdelmonem; Brown, Marian Amanda; Paravattil, Bridget; Khalifa, Sherief Ibrahim

2015-01-01

Little is known regarding attitudes of healthcare professional students towards team-based care in the Middle East. As modernization of health systems is rapidly occurring across the Gulf Cooperation Council countries, it is important for students to engage in interprofessional education (IPE) activities. The objective of this study was to assess pre-clinical students' attitudes towards interprofessional healthcare teams after completion of their first IPE activity. A previously validated questionnaire was distributed to 25 pharmacy and 17 nutrition students at Qatar University after participation in an IPE event. Questions related to quality of team-based care and physician centricity. Results showed high agreement regarding high quality care provided by teams yet students were unsure of the value of team-based care when considering required time for implementation. Results provide baseline data for future studies to assess student attitudes throughout the professional programs and give valuable insight for future IPE program design in the Middle East.

The Relations of Stressful Events and Nonacademic Future Expectations in African American Adolescents: Gender Differences in Parental Monitoring

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cunningham, Michael; Mars, Dustin E.; Burns, Lateela J.

2012-01-01

Urban African American high school students (N = 206) completed a study to examine gender differences in parental monitoring and the effect on the relationship between exposure to stressful life events and nonacademic future expectations. Participant's ages range from 13 to 18 (M = 15.78, SD = 1.19). Participants reported high exposure to…

Drought events in the Czech Republic: past, present, future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brázdil, Rudolf; Trnka, Miroslav; Mikšovský, Jiří; Tolasz, Radim; Dobrovolný, Petr; Řezníčková, Ladislava; Dolák, Lukáš

2017-04-01

Droughts are, together with floods, the most important natural extremes in the Czech Republic. In the last c. 20 years even some irregular alternations of years with severe droughts on the one hand (2000, 2003, 2007, 2011-2012, 2014-2015) and severe floods on the other (1997, 1998, 2002, 2005, 2009, 2010, 2013), reflecting greater variability of the water cycle, can be observed. Great attention devoted to the study of past, present and future of droughts in the Czech Republic in a few last years allowed to obtain basic knowledge related to long-term spatial-temporal variability of droughts, combining dendrochronological, documentary and instrumental data, synoptic causes and climate forcings of droughts, case studies of important drought anomalies with significant social-economic consequences (like drought of 1947), impacts of droughts in agriculture, forestry or water management, and future droughts according to model estimates. Basic results obtained are summarised and documented by several typical examples. Such level of drought knowledge became a basis for formulation of the new research project, trying to analyse the climate forcings and triggers involved in the occurrence, course and severity of drought events in the Czech Republic in the context of Central Europe and explanations of their physical mechanisms, based on a 515-year series of drought indices reconstructed from documentary and instrumental data. Presentation of this new project for 2017-2019 is included in the second part of the paper. (This work was supported by Czech Science Foundation, project no. 17-10026S "Drought events in the Czech Republic and their causes".)

A Study of Future Change of Extreme Precipitation Event Accompanying Land Slide Disaster at Hiroshima Using Cloud Resolving Model with 500 m Horizontal Grid

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hibino, K.; Takayabu, I.; Wakazuki, Y.; Ogata, T.

2016-12-01

An extreme precipitation event happened at Hiroshima in 2014. Over 250 mm total rainfall was observed at the night of 19th August, which caused a flood and several land slides. The precipitation event is thought to be a rare event happening once in approximately 30 years i.e., 30 years return level. We investigate the mechanism of this event and examine its future change by using a 27-members ensemble experiment with Japan Meteorological Research Institute non­hydrostatic regional climate model (MRI­-NHRCM). Because the heavy rainfall was provided by local convection system (about 100 km), high resolution model of 500 m horizontal grid is used to reproduce the system in the model. Future climate experiments are performed by pseudo­global warming method, in which future changes of sea surface temperature (ΔSST) and vertical profile of temperature (ΔT) are added to the present environmental conditions with relative humidity not being changed. The ΔSST and ΔT are obtained from d4PDF dataset, in which greenhouse gas concentration is fixed so that the surface air temperature averaged globally is 4K warmer than that in the preindustrial time. The ensemble experiment shows that the total amount of rainfall around Hiroshima plain in the future experiments is approximately identical to or slightly decreased from that in the present experiments in spite of the increase of water vapor due to the atmosphere warming. The hypothesis to understand this non-intuitive result is that the future change of temperature profile, of which lower atmosphere is approximately +4K and upper atmosphere near tropopause is approximately +7.5K, increases the convective stability of atmosphere. In order to verify the hypothesis, 5 additional future experiments are performed, in which the future change of temperature profile is constant throughout the troposphere. The experiments yield a large increase of precipitation, and we infer that the increase of water vapor and stabilization effect of the temperature profile change cancel each other with regard to the precipitation output.

Solar Energetic Particle Event Risks for Future Human Missions within the Inner Heliosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Over, S.; Ford, J.

2017-12-01

As astronauts travel beyond low-Earth orbit (LEO), space weather research will play a key role in determining risks from space radiation. Of interest are the rare, large solar energetic particle (SEP) events that can cause significant medical effects during flight. Historical SEP data were analyzed from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) program covering the time period of 1986 to 2016 for SEP events. The SEP event data were combined with a Monte Carlo approach to develop a risk model to determine maximum expected doses for missions within the inner heliosphere. Presented here are results from risk assessments for proposed Mars transits as compared to a geostationary Earth-bound mission. Overall, the greatest risk was for the return from Mars with a Venus swing-by, due to the additional transit length and decreased distance from the Sun as compared to traditional Hohmann transfers. The overall results do not indicate that the effects of SEP events alone would prohibit these missions based on current radiation limits alone, but the combination of doses from SEP events and galactic cosmic radiation may be significant, and should be considered in all phases of mission design.

"I knew it was wrong the moment I got the order": A narrative thematic analysis of moral injury in combat veterans.

PubMed

Held, Philip; Klassen, Brian J; Hall, Joanne M; Friese, Tanya R; Bertsch-Gout, Marcel M; Zalta, Alyson K; Pollack, Mark H

2018-05-03

Moral injury is a nascent construct intended to capture reactions to events that violate deeply held beliefs and moral values. Although a model of moral injury has been proposed, many of the theoretical propositions of this model have yet to be systematically studied. We conducted semistructured interviews with eight veterans who reported experiencing morally injurious events during war zone deployments. Using narrative thematic analysis, five main themes and associated subthemes emerged from the data. The main themes capture the timing of the event, contextual factors that affected the decision-making process during the morally injurious event, reactions to the moral injurious event, search for purpose and meaning, and opening up. The findings from the present study supported an existing model of moral injury, while extending it in several important ways. Preliminary clinical recommendations and directions for future research are discussed based on the study findings. These include directly exploring the context surrounding the morally injurious event, examining the veterans' moral appraisals, and helping them assume appropriate responsibility for their actions to reduce excessive self-blame. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

Clinical decision making and the expected value of information.

PubMed

Willan, Andrew R

2007-01-01

The results of the HOPE study, a randomized clinical trial, provide strong evidence that 1) ramipril prevents the composite outcome of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction or stroke in patients who are at high risk of a cardiovascular event and 2) ramipril is cost-effective at a threshold willingness-to-pay of $10,000 to prevent an event of the composite outcome. In this report the concept of the expected value of information is used to determine if the information provided by the HOPE study is sufficient for decision making in the US and Canada. and results Using the cost-effectiveness data from a clinical trial, or from a meta-analysis of several trials, one can determine, based on the number of future patients that would benefit from the health technology under investigation, the expected value of sample information (EVSI) of a future trial as a function of proposed sample size. If the EVSI exceeds the cost for any particular sample size then the current information is insufficient for decision making and a future trial is indicated. If, on the other hand, there is no sample size for which the EVSI exceeds the cost, then there is sufficient information for decision making and no future trial is required. Using the data from the HOPE study these concepts are applied for various assumptions regarding the fixed and variable cost of a future trial and the number of patients who would benefit from ramipril. Expected value of information methods provide a decision-analytic alternative to the standard likelihood methods for assessing the evidence provided by cost-effectiveness data from randomized clinical trials.

In-flight medical incapacitation and impairment of airline pilots.

PubMed

DeJohn, Charles A; Wolbrink, Alex M; Larcher, Julie G

2006-10-01

Medical incapacitation in the cockpit is rare, although it is a concern that has been the subject of several investigations over the years. With recent heightened interest in this problem, it seemed worthwhile to review all relevant scientific literature on the topic. Medline, PsychLit, the Aerospace Database, and other online databases were searched for studies of pilot in-flight medical incapacitation and impairment. The search revealed 13 articles during the years from 1968 to 2000. The studies represented several different approaches and were divided into five categories as follows: in-flight medical events, career termination, simulator data, questionnaires, and epidemiological analysis. The articles based on in-flight medical events showed that the leading causes of those episodes were myocardial infarctions, cardiac arrhythmias, and epileptic seizures. Few of the other types of studies used data from actual in-flight medical occurrences, instead relying on indirect measures such as career termination due to permanent medical grounding, loss of licensure insurance, or general epidemiological data to estimate the frequency of in-flight medical events. The reviewed studies provided only limited information on the frequency and categories of in-flight medical events and did not include incapacitation rates, making meaningful comparison between studies difficult. Future research needs to be based on actual in-flight medical events, and should be normalized to a useful denominator, such as flight time, to allow for meaningful comparison between studies.

Minimum datasets to establish a CAR-mediated mode of action for rodent liver tumors.

PubMed

Peffer, Richard C; LeBaron, Matthew J; Battalora, Michael; Bomann, Werner H; Werner, Christoph; Aggarwal, Manoj; Rowe, Rocky R; Tinwell, Helen

2018-04-16

Methods for investigating the Mode of Action (MoA) for rodent liver tumors via constitutive androstane receptor (CAR) activation are outlined here, based on current scientific knowledge about CAR and feedback from regulatory agencies globally. The key events (i.e., CAR activation, altered gene expression, cell proliferation, altered foci and increased adenomas/carcinomas) can be demonstrated by measuring a combination of key events and associative events that are markers for the key events. For crop protection products, a primary dataset typically should include a short-term study in the species/strain that showed the tumor response at dose levels that bracket the tumorigenic and non-tumorigenic dose levels. The dataset may vary depending on the species and the test compound. As examples, Case Studies with nitrapyrin (in mice) and metofluthrin (in rats) are described. Based on qualitative differences between the species, the key events leading to tumors in mice or rats by this MoA are not operative in humans. In the future, newer approaches such as a CAR biomarker signature approach and/or in vitro CAR3 reporter assays for mouse, rat and human CAR may eventually be used to demonstrate a CAR MoA is operative, without the need for extensive additional studies in laboratory animals. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

'Gun! Gun! Gun!': An exploration of law enforcement officers' decision-making and coping under stress during actual events.

PubMed

Harris, Kevin R; Eccles, David W; Freeman, Carlos; Ward, Paul

2017-08-01

Research on decision-making under stress has mainly involved laboratory-based studies with few contextual descriptions of decision-making under stress in the natural ecology. We examined how police officers prepared for, coped with and made decisions under threat-of-death stress during real events. A delayed retrospective report method was used to elicit skilled police officers' thoughts and feelings during attempts to resolve such events. Reports were analysed to identify experiences of stress and coping, and thought processes underpinning decision-making during the event. Officers experienced a wide range of events, coped with stress predominantly via problem-focused strategies, and adapted their decision-making under stress based on the available context. Future officer training should involve a greater variety of training scenarios than is involved in current training, and expose trainees to the possible variants of each situation to foster better situational representation and, thus, a more reliable and adaptive mental model for use in decision-making. Practitioner Summary: This study concerns decision-making and coping strategies used by skilled police officers during real threat-of-death situations. Officers' decision-making strategies differed according to the complexity of the situation and they coped with the stress of these situations via attempts to resolve the situations (e.g. by planning responses) and, to a lesser extent, via attempts to deal with their emotions.

Automatic identification of gait events using an instrumented sock

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Textile-based transducers are an emerging technology in which piezo-resistive properties of materials are used to measure an applied strain. By incorporating these sensors into a sock, this technology offers the potential to detect critical events during the stance phase of the gait cycle. This could prove useful in several applications, such as functional electrical stimulation (FES) systems to assist gait. Methods We investigated the output of a knitted resistive strain sensor during walking and sought to determine the degree of similarity between the sensor output and the ankle angle in the sagittal plane. In addition, we investigated whether it would be possible to predict three key gait events, heel strike, heel lift and toe off, with a relatively straight-forward algorithm. This worked by predicting gait events to occur at fixed time offsets from specific peaks in the sensor signal. Results Our results showed that, for all subjects, the sensor output exhibited the same general characteristics as the ankle joint angle. However, there were large between-subjects differences in the degree of similarity between the two curves. Despite this variability, it was possible to accurately predict gait events using a simple algorithm. This algorithm displayed high levels of trial-to-trial repeatability. Conclusions This study demonstrates the potential of using textile-based transducers in future devices that provide active gait assistance. PMID:21619570

A tool to determine financial impact of adverse events in health care: healthcare quality calculator.

PubMed

Yarbrough, Wendell G; Sewell, Andrew; Tickle, Erin; Rhinehardt, Eric; Harkleroad, Rod; Bennett, Marc; Johnson, Deborah; Wen, Li; Pfeiffer, Matthew; Benegas, Manny; Morath, Julie

2014-12-01

Hospital leaders lack tools to determine the financial impact of poor patient outcomes and adverse events. To provide health-care leaders with decision support for investments to improve care, we created a tool, the Healthcare Quality Calculator (HQCal), which uses institution-specific financial data to calculate impact of poor patient outcomes or quality improvement on present and future margin. Excel and Web-based versions of the HQCal were based on a cohort study framework and created with modular components including major drivers of cost and reimbursement. The Healthcare Quality Calculator (HQCal) compares payment, cost, and profit/loss for patients with and without poor outcomes or quality issues. Cost and payment information for groups with and without quality issues are used by the HQCal to calculate profit or loss. Importantly, institution-specific payment and cost data are used to calculate financial impact and attributable cost associated with poor patient outcomes, adverse events, or quality issues. Because future cost and reimbursement changes can be forecast, the HQCal incorporates a forward-looking component. The flexibility of the HQCal was demonstrated using surgical site infections after abdominal surgery and postoperative surgical airway complications. The Healthcare Quality Calculator determines financial impact of poor patient outcomes and the benefit of initiatives to improve quality. The calculator can identify quality issues that would provide the largest financial benefit if improved; however, it cannot identify specific interventions. The calculator provides a tool to improve transparency regarding both short- and long-term financial consequences of funding, or failing to fund, initiatives to close gaps in quality or improve patient outcomes.

Energy Partitioning of Seismic Phases: Current Datasets and Techniques Aimed at Improving the Future of Event Identification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonner, J.

2006-05-01

Differences in energy partitioning of seismic phases from earthquakes and explosions provide the opportunity for event identification. In this talk, I will briefly review teleseismic Ms:mb and P/S ratio techniques that help identify events based on differences in compressional, shear, and surface wave energy generation from explosions and earthquakes. With the push to identify smaller yield explosions, the identification process has become increasingly complex as varied types of explosions, including chemical, mining, and nuclear, must be identified at regional distances. Thus, I will highlight some of the current views and problems associated with the energy partitioning of seismic phases from single- and delay-fired chemical explosions. One problem yet to have a universally accepted answer is whether the explosion and earthquake populations, based on the Ms:mb discriminants, should be separated at smaller magnitudes. I will briefly describe the datasets and theory that support either converging or parallel behavior of these populations. Also, I will discuss improvement to the currently used methods that will better constrain this problem in the future. I will also discuss the role of regional P/S ratios in identifying explosions. In particular, recent datasets from South Africa, Scandinavia, and the Western United States collected from earthquakes, single-fired chemical explosions, and/or delay-fired mining explosions have provide new insight into regional P, S, Lg, and Rg energy partitioning. Data from co-located mining and chemical explosions suggest that some mining explosions may be used for limited calibration of regional discriminants in regions where no historic explosion data is available.

Changes in the probability of co-occurring extreme climate events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Diffenbaugh, N. S.

2017-12-01

Extreme climate events such as floods, droughts, heatwaves, and severe storms exert acute stresses on natural and human systems. When multiple extreme events co-occur, either in space or time, the impacts can be substantially compounded. A diverse set of human interests - including supply chains, agricultural commodities markets, reinsurance, and deployment of humanitarian aid - have historically relied on the rarity of extreme events to provide a geographic hedge against the compounded impacts of co-occuring extremes. However, changes in the frequency of extreme events in recent decades imply that the probability of co-occuring extremes is also changing, and is likely to continue to change in the future in response to additional global warming. This presentation will review the evidence for historical changes in extreme climate events and the response of extreme events to continued global warming, and will provide some perspective on methods for quantifying changes in the probability of co-occurring extremes in the past and future.

Web-Based and Mobile Delivery of an Episodic Future Thinking Intervention for Overweight and Obese Families: A Feasibility Study.

PubMed

Sze, Yan Yan; Daniel, Tinuke Oluyomi; Kilanowski, Colleen K; Collins, R Lorraine; Epstein, Leonard H

2015-12-16

The bias toward immediate gratification is associated with maladaptive eating behaviors and has been cross-sectionally and prospectively related to obesity. Engaging in episodic future thinking, which involves mental self-projection to pre-experience future events, reduces this bias and energy intake in overweight/obese adults and children. To examine how episodic future thinking can be incorporated into clinical interventions, a Web-based system was created to provide training for adults and children in their everyday lives. Our study examined the technical feasibility, usability, and acceptability of a Web-based system that is accessible by mobile devices and adapts episodic future thinking for delivery in family-based obesity interventions. We recruited 20 parent-child dyads (N=40) from the surrounding community and randomized to episodic future thinking versus a nutritional information thinking control to test the feasibility of a 4-week Web-based intervention. Parents were 44.1 (SD 7.8) years of age with BMI of 34.2 (SD 6.8) kg/m(2). Children were 11.0 (SD 1.3) years of age with BMI percentile of 96.0 (SD 1.8). Families met weekly with a case manager for 4 weeks and used the system daily. Adherence was collected through the Web-based system, and perceived acceptance of the Web-based system was assessed postintervention. Measurements of body composition and dietary intake were collected at baseline and after the 4 weeks of intervention. All 20 families completed the intervention and attended all sessions. Results showed parents and children had high adherence to the Web-based system and perceived it to be easy to use, useful, and helpful. No differences between conditions were found in adherence for parents (P=.65) or children (P=.27). In addition, results suggest that basic nutrition information along with episodic future thinking delivered through our Web-based system may reduce energy intake and weight. We showed that our Web-based system is an accepted technology and a feasible utility. Furthermore, results provide initial evidence that our system can be incorporated into family-based treatments targeting behaviors related to weight control. These results show promising utility in using our Web-based system in interventions.

Web-Based and Mobile Delivery of an Episodic Future Thinking Intervention for Overweight and Obese Families: A Feasibility Study

PubMed Central

Daniel, Tinuke Oluyomi; Kilanowski, Colleen K; Collins, R Lorraine

2015-01-01

Background The bias toward immediate gratification is associated with maladaptive eating behaviors and has been cross-sectionally and prospectively related to obesity. Engaging in episodic future thinking, which involves mental self-projection to pre-experience future events, reduces this bias and energy intake in overweight/obese adults and children. To examine how episodic future thinking can be incorporated into clinical interventions, a Web-based system was created to provide training for adults and children in their everyday lives. Objective Our study examined the technical feasibility, usability, and acceptability of a Web-based system that is accessible by mobile devices and adapts episodic future thinking for delivery in family-based obesity interventions. Methods We recruited 20 parent-child dyads (N=40) from the surrounding community and randomized to episodic future thinking versus a nutritional information thinking control to test the feasibility of a 4-week Web-based intervention. Parents were 44.1 (SD 7.8) years of age with BMI of 34.2 (SD 6.8) kg/m2. Children were 11.0 (SD 1.3) years of age with BMI percentile of 96.0 (SD 1.8). Families met weekly with a case manager for 4 weeks and used the system daily. Adherence was collected through the Web-based system, and perceived acceptance of the Web-based system was assessed postintervention. Measurements of body composition and dietary intake were collected at baseline and after the 4 weeks of intervention. Results All 20 families completed the intervention and attended all sessions. Results showed parents and children had high adherence to the Web-based system and perceived it to be easy to use, useful, and helpful. No differences between conditions were found in adherence for parents (P=.65) or children (P=.27). In addition, results suggest that basic nutrition information along with episodic future thinking delivered through our Web-based system may reduce energy intake and weight. Conclusions We showed that our Web-based system is an accepted technology and a feasible utility. Furthermore, results provide initial evidence that our system can be incorporated into family-based treatments targeting behaviors related to weight control. These results show promising utility in using our Web-based system in interventions. PMID:26678959

Quantifying Airborne Allergen Levels Before and After Rain Events Using TRMM/GPM and Ground-Sampled Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stewart, Randy M.

2006-01-01

Allergies affect millions of Americans, increasing health risks and also increasing absenteeism and reducing productivity in the workplace. Outdoor allergens, such as airborne pollens and mold spores, commonly trigger respiratory distress symptoms, but rainfall reduces the quantity of allergens in the air (EPA, 2003). The current NASA Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission provides accurate information related to rain events. These capabilities will be further enhanced with the future Global Precipitation Measurement mission. This report examines the effectiveness of combining these NASA resources with established ground-based allergen/spore sampling systems to better understand the benefits that rain provides in removing allergens and spores from the air.

Event parallelism: Distributed memory parallel computing for high energy physics experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nash, Thomas

1989-12-01

This paper describes the present and expected future development of distributed memory parallel computers for high energy physics experiments. It covers the use of event parallel microprocessor farms, particularly at Fermilab, including both ACP multiprocessors and farms of MicroVAXES. These systems have proven very cost effective in the past. A case is made for moving to the more open environment of UNIX and RISC processors. The 2nd Generation ACP Multiprocessor System, which is based on powerful RISC system, is described. Given the promise of still more extraordinary increases in processor performance, a new emphasis on point to point, rather than bussed, communication will be required. Developments in this direction are described.

Cultural Differences in Young Adults' Perceptions of the Probability of Future Family Life Events.

PubMed

Speirs, Calandra; Huang, Vivian; Konnert, Candace

2017-09-01

Most young adults are exposed to family caregiving; however, little is known about their perceptions of their future caregiving activities such as the probability of becoming a caregiver for their parents or providing assistance in relocating to a nursing home. This study examined the perceived probability of these events among 182 young adults and the following predictors of their probability ratings: gender, ethnicity, work or volunteer experience, experiences with caregiving and nursing homes, expectations about these transitions, and filial piety. Results indicated that Asian or South Asian participants rated the probability of being a caregiver as significantly higher than Caucasian participants, and the probability of placing a parent in a nursing home as significantly lower. Filial piety was the strongest predictor of the probability of these life events, and it mediated the relationship between ethnicity and probability ratings. These findings indicate the significant role of filial piety in shaping perceptions of future life events.

W(h)ither the Sense of Wonder of Pre-Service Primary Teachers' when Teaching Science?: A Preliminary Study of Their Personal Experiences

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stolberg, Tonie L.

2008-01-01

This preliminary study seeks to explore whether wonder-based reflections are sources of inspiration for our future teachers of science. What experiences have brought them personally a sense of wonder and when, if at all, do they employ scientific explanations of those events? In all 140 pre-service primary teachers, when questioned, described 240…

The spatial alignment of time: Differences in alignment of deictic and sequence time along the sagittal and lateral axes.

PubMed

Walker, Esther J; Bergen, Benjamin K; Núñez, Rafael

2017-04-01

People use space in a variety of ways to structure their thoughts about time. The present report focuses on the different ways that space is employed when reasoning about deictic (past/future relationships) and sequence (earlier/later relationships) time. In the first study, we show that deictic and sequence time are aligned along the lateral axis in a manner consistent with previous work, with past and earlier events associated with left space and future and later events associated with right space. However, the alignment of time with space is different along the sagittal axis. Participants associated future events and earlier events-not later events-with the space in front of their body and past and later events with the space behind, consistent with the sagittal spatial terms (e.g., ahead, in front of) that we use to talk about deictic and sequence time. In the second study, we show that these associations between sequence time and sagittal space are sensitive to person-perspective. This suggests that the particular space-time associations observed in English speakers are influenced by a variety of different spatial properties, including spatial location and perspective. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Sensitivity of the Atmospheric Response to Warm Pool El Nino Events to Modeled SSTs and Future Climate Forcings

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hurwitz, Margaret M.; Garfinkel, Chaim I.; Newman, Paul A.; Oman, Luke D.

2013-01-01

Warm pool El Nino (WPEN) events are characterized by positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific. Under present-day climate conditions, WPEN events generate poleward propagating wavetrains and enhance midlatitude planetary wave activity, weakening the stratospheric polar vortices. The late 21st century extratropical atmospheric response to WPEN events is investigated using the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model (GEOSCCM), version 2. GEOSCCM simulations are forced by projected late 21st century concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) and by SSTs and sea ice concentrations from an existing ocean-atmosphere simulation. Despite known ocean-atmosphere model biases, the prescribed SST fields represent a best estimate of the structure of late 21st century WPEN events. The future Arctic vortex response is qualitatively similar to that observed in recent decades but is weaker in late winter. This response reflects the weaker SST forcing in the Nino 3.4 region and subsequently weaker Northern Hemisphere tropospheric teleconnections. The Antarctic stratosphere does not respond to WPEN events in a future climate, reflecting a change in tropospheric teleconnections: The meridional wavetrain weakens while a more zonal wavetrain originates near Australia. Sensitivity simulations show that a strong poleward wavetrain response to WPEN requires a strengthening and southeastward extension of the South Pacific Convergence Zone; this feature is not captured by the late 21st century modeled SSTs. Expected future increases in GHGs and decreases in ODSs do not affect the polar stratospheric responses to WPEN.

Properties of inductive reasoning.

PubMed

Heit, E

2000-12-01

This paper reviews the main psychological phenomena of inductive reasoning, covering 25 years of experimental and model-based research, in particular addressing four questions. First, what makes a case or event generalizable to other cases? Second, what makes a set of cases generalizable? Third, what makes a property or predicate projectable? Fourth, how do psychological models of induction address these results? The key results in inductive reasoning are outlined, and several recent models, including a new Bayesian account, are evaluated with respect to these results. In addition, future directions for experimental and model-based work are proposed.

Changing transport and traffic risks - a CliPDaR spin off

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matulla, Christoph; Namyslo, Joachim; Gringinger, Julia; Andre, Konrad; Chimani, Barbara; Hollosi, Brigitta; Mlinar, Christian; Gschier, Roland; Fuchs, Tobias; Auer, Inge

2014-05-01

The delivery of goods, people's mobility, the supply with services and the free accessibility of vital resources, as hospitals for instance, are indispensable for our society. All that is possible through functioning transport networks. Globalisation, changes in technology, demography and climate as well as the strong increase in freight traffic are fundamental challenges to the reinforcement of systems in place and the planning of future transport corridors. As for climate change we present an approach to estimate the rate and amount of change than has to be managed in the future by the transport authorities. This assessment is based on combinations of weather elements that potentially harm the transport system. Such combinations (called climate indices, CIs) are evaluated for the past and the future. The evaluation of the past is done by the use of observations; the assessment of the future is based on ensembles of scenario projections, since a single projection does not allow deriving uncertainty based statements. Landslides originating from long term rain events may serve as an example. In 2013 a number of landslides caused substantial destruction and downtimes in turn. The perhaps most prominent example took place in Tirol where the Felbertauern road was hit twice by landslides and the avalanche gallery was destroyed. In our presentation at the EGU we will show changes in CIs that are related to landslides, rutting, frost thaw cycles (e.g. responsible for falling roks) and heavy precipitation events (potentially important for the flooding of transport assets as tunnels and drainage systems or dangerous to bridges). These changes refer to two future periods: the near future (2021-2050) and the remote future (2071-2100); and they refer to the climatological normal period (19961-1990). Referring to landslides there are regions showing no change and other areas with substantial increases, which predominantly occur close to topographic complex terrain. Such regions are characterized by precipitation induced by orographic lifting. Increases can be caused by the more frequent advection of moist air masses carrying more water vapour than observed so far. The findings rely on the so called KLIWAS8 ensemble used already by Matulla et al. 2014 in related cases and generated by Imbery et al. 2013. Findings will be depicted by the 15th 50th and 85th percentiles which allow to cover ranges of possible changes. This way proper measures handy for decision making regarding the planning of transport networks and the reinforcement of existing assets may be developed.

Wet, Dry, Dim, or Bright? The Future of Water Resources in North Texas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brikowski, T. H.

2009-12-01

Future water resource availability in North Texas (Dallas-Ft. Worth Metroplex) is likely to be limited by the combined impact of decadal-scale and longer term climate changes. Two decadal precipitation anomalies are statistically distinguishable in the historical record (dry/wet, Table 1). These correspond temporally with the onset of global dimming/brightening events (hydrologic cycle retardation/acceleration) respectively (Table 1). Surface water hydrologic parameters are variably correlated with these events, depending on the degree of time-integration of each process. Precipitation correlates most strongly with the decadal anomalies. Runoff changes during these periods were magnified relative to precipitation changes, presumably an effect of soil moisture changes, and over the basin as a whole correlate best with the global events. Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) attempts to capture such effects, and also correlates most strongly with the global events. The most important time-integrators of the system, reservoirs, show mixed correlation in terms of total storage with the decadal and longer term climate periods. Reservoir flood releases (excess storage) correlate with decadal precipitation anomalies, in part reflecting short-term consumption influences. Major reservoirs in the area post-date the dry period, precluding direct evaluation of sustainability from historical records. Historical correlations versus PDSI can be combined with climate-model based PDSI projections to evaluate future sustainability. Climate projections based on a mean of 19 IPCC intermediate scenario (SRESa1b) models indicate an approximately 10% reduction in mean annual precipitation, and warming of 2oC by 2050 in this region. Steady lowering of mean annual PDSI results, with a 50% probability that annual PDSI will average -0.5 by 2050. Average climate will move from humid (Aridity Index=35) to semi-humid (AI=27), and runoff can be expected to decline accordingly. Probability of a continuous two-year drought, historically sufficient to trigger Stage 3 drought restrictions, more than doubles to 15%/yr by 2050. Based on least-squares fit of historical PDSI and streamflow, median predicted watershed runoff declines by 23%. This reduction brings projected reservoir input to approximately the same value as current annual consumption from those reservoirs. These projected reservoir inflow changes would limit water supply sustainability in North Texas. Inflow declines are similar whether caused by recurrence of observed decadal precipitation variations or long term climate change. The magnitude of these declines (20%) is similar to projected shortfalls based only on population growth by 2050. Evidently both a serious conservation program and currently planned water importation projects will be required to maintain water supply in North Texas.Table 1: Departures from mean and probability that change is random for indicated climate periods

Improvements on GPS Location Cluster Analysis for the Prediction of Large Carnivore Feeding Activities: Ground-Truth Detection Probability and Inclusion of Activity Sensor Measures

PubMed Central

Blecha, Kevin A.; Alldredge, Mat W.

2015-01-01

Animal space use studies using GPS collar technology are increasingly incorporating behavior based analysis of spatio-temporal data in order to expand inferences of resource use. GPS location cluster analysis is one such technique applied to large carnivores to identify the timing and location of feeding events. For logistical and financial reasons, researchers often implement predictive models for identifying these events. We present two separate improvements for predictive models that future practitioners can implement. Thus far, feeding prediction models have incorporated a small range of covariates, usually limited to spatio-temporal characteristics of the GPS data. Using GPS collared cougar (Puma concolor) we include activity sensor data as an additional covariate to increase prediction performance of feeding presence/absence. Integral to the predictive modeling of feeding events is a ground-truthing component, in which GPS location clusters are visited by human observers to confirm the presence or absence of feeding remains. Failing to account for sources of ground-truthing false-absences can bias the number of predicted feeding events to be low. Thus we account for some ground-truthing error sources directly in the model with covariates and when applying model predictions. Accounting for these errors resulted in a 10% increase in the number of clusters predicted to be feeding events. Using a double-observer design, we show that the ground-truthing false-absence rate is relatively low (4%) using a search delay of 2–60 days. Overall, we provide two separate improvements to the GPS cluster analysis techniques that can be expanded upon and implemented in future studies interested in identifying feeding behaviors of large carnivores. PMID:26398546

Adaptive Anchoring Model: How Static and Dynamic Presentations of Time Series Influence Judgments and Predictions.

PubMed

Kusev, Petko; van Schaik, Paul; Tsaneva-Atanasova, Krasimira; Juliusson, Asgeir; Chater, Nick

2018-01-01

When attempting to predict future events, people commonly rely on historical data. One psychological characteristic of judgmental forecasting of time series, established by research, is that when people make forecasts from series, they tend to underestimate future values for upward trends and overestimate them for downward ones, so-called trend-damping (modeled by anchoring on, and insufficient adjustment from, the average of recent time series values). Events in a time series can be experienced sequentially (dynamic mode), or they can also be retrospectively viewed simultaneously (static mode), not experienced individually in real time. In one experiment, we studied the influence of presentation mode (dynamic and static) on two sorts of judgment: (a) predictions of the next event (forecast) and (b) estimation of the average value of all the events in the presented series (average estimation). Participants' responses in dynamic mode were anchored on more recent events than in static mode for all types of judgment but with different consequences; hence, dynamic presentation improved prediction accuracy, but not estimation. These results are not anticipated by existing theoretical accounts; we develop and present an agent-based model-the adaptive anchoring model (ADAM)-to account for the difference between processing sequences of dynamically and statically presented stimuli (visually presented data). ADAM captures how variation in presentation mode produces variation in responses (and the accuracy of these responses) in both forecasting and judgment tasks. ADAM's model predictions for the forecasting and judgment tasks fit better with the response data than a linear-regression time series model. Moreover, ADAM outperformed autoregressive-integrated-moving-average (ARIMA) and exponential-smoothing models, while neither of these models accounts for people's responses on the average estimation task. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Cognitive Science published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Cognitive Science Society.

The more extreme nature of North American monsoon precipitation in the Southwestern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, H. I.; Luong, T. M.; Castro, C. L.; Lahmers, T. M.; Adams, D. K.; Ochoa-Moya, C.

2017-12-01

Most severe weather in the Southwestern United States occurs during the North American monsoon. This research examines how monsoon extreme weather events will change with respect to occurrence and intensity. A new technique to severe weather event projection has been developed, using convective perimitting regional atmospheric modeling of days with highest instabilty and atmospheric moisture. The guiding principle is to use a weather forecast based approach to climate change project, with a modeling paradigm in which organized convective structures and their behavior are explicitly physically represented in the simulation design. Of particular interest is the simulation of severe weather events caused by mesoscale convective systems (MCSs), which account for a greater proportion of monsoon rainfall downwind of the Mogollon Rim in Arizona, in the central and southwestern portions of the state. The convective-permitting model simulations are performed for identified severe weather event days for both historical and future climate projections, similar to an operational weather forecast. There have been significant long-term changes in atmospheric thermodynamic and dynamic conditions that have occurred over the past sixty years. Monsoon thunderstorms are tending to be more 'thermodynamically dominated' with less tendency to organize and propagate. Though there are tending to be a fewer number of strong, organized MCS-type convective events during the monsoon, when they do occur their associated precipitation is now tending to be more intense. The area of central and southwestern Arizona, corresponding to the area of the state most impacted by MCSs during the monsoon, appears to be a local hot spot where precipitation and downdraft winds are becoming more intense. These types of changes are very consistent with the historical observed precipitation data and model projections of historical and future climate, from dynamically downscaled CMIP3 and CMIP5 models.

The impact of perceived self-efficacy on mental time travel and social problem solving.

PubMed

Brown, Adam D; Dorfman, Michelle L; Marmar, Charles R; Bryant, Richard A

2012-03-01

Current models of autobiographical memory suggest that self-identity guides autobiographical memory retrieval. Further, the capacity to recall the past and imagine one's self in the future (mental time travel) can influence social problem solving. We examined whether manipulating self-identity, through an induction task in which students were led to believe they possessed high or low self-efficacy, impacted episodic specificity and content of retrieved and imagined events, as well as social problem solving. Compared to individuals in the low self efficacy group, individuals in the high self efficacy group generated past and future events with greater (a) specificity, (b) positive words, and (c) self-efficacious statements, and also performed better on social problem solving indices. A lack of episodic detail for future events predicted poorer performance on social problem solving tasks. Strategies that increase perceived self-efficacy may help individuals to selectively construct a past and future that aids in negotiating social problems. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Effects on incidental memory of affective tone in associated past and future episodes: influence of emotional intelligence.

PubMed

Toyota, Hiroshi

2011-02-01

The present study examined the effects of emotion elicited by episodes (past events or expected future events) and the relationship between individual differences in emotional intelligence and memory. Participants' emotional intelligence was assessed on the Japanese version of Emotional Skills and Competence Questionnaire. They rated the pleasantness of episodes they associated with targets, and then performed unexpected free recall tests. When the targets were associated with episodes that were past events, all participants recalled more of the targets associated with pleasant and unpleasant episodes than those associated with neutral episodes. However, when the targets were associated with episodes expected to occur in the future, only participants with higher emotional intelligence scores recalled more of the targets associated with pleasant and unpleasant episodes. The participants with lower emotional intelligence scores recalled the three target types with similar accuracy. These results were interpreted as showing that emotional intelligence is associated with the processing of targets associated with future episodes as retrieval cues.

Critical Trends and Events Affecting the Future of Community Colleges: Proceedings of a Beyond 2000 Preconference Workshop (Orlando, Florida, February 26-28, 1995).

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Morrison, James L.

The Beyond 2000 workshop held in February 1995 was designed to give participants experience in using strategic management techniques, such as critical trend and potential event identification, to examine the future of community colleges. This paper is intended as a guide for implementing similar workshops and summarizes the outcomes of workshop…

Freight economic vulnerabilities due to flooding events.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-12-01

Extreme weather events, and flooding in particular, have been occurring more often and with increased severity over the past decade, and there is reason to expect this trend will continue in the future due to a changing climate. Flooding events can u...

Continental-Scale Estimates of Runoff Using Future Climate Storm Events

EPA Science Inventory

Recent runoff events have had serious repercussions to both natural ecosystems and human infrastructure. Understanding how shifts in storm event intensities are expected to change runoff responses are valuable for local, regional, and landscape planning. To address this challenge...

The FacharztDuell: innovative career counselling in medicine.

PubMed

Welbergen, Lena; Pinilla, Severin; Pander, Tanja; Gradel, Maximilian; von der Borch, Philip; Fischer, Martin R; Dimitriadis, Konstantinos

2014-01-01

The selection of a future medical specialty is a challenge all medical students face during the course of their studies. Students can choose from more than sixty specialties after graduation. There is usually no structured career counselling program available at German medical faculties. So far only little data on acceptance, formats and effects of different career counselling programs are available. The aim of this study is to describe an innovative format of career counselling for medical students including its evaluation of acceptance and its possible influence on medical specialty preferences. The need for career counselling became evident after the analysis of mentor-mentee conversations held within the mentoring program of our medical faculty, an online-based survey, an ad-hoc focus group and a pilot event. Panel discussions as an interactive format of presenting related medical specialties were developed and hence held four times under the name "FacharztDuell". Students evaluated all events separately with a questionnaire and changes in medical specialty choice preferences were documented using an Audience-Response-System (ARS). The FacharztDuell is organized regularly and supported by faculty teaching funds. Among the student body FacharztDuell was well accepted (an average of 300 participants/event) and rated (average grade of 1.8 (SD= 0.7, 1=very good, 6=unsatisfactory, n=424). On average, 77.8% of the participating students considered the FacharztDuell to be a decision support for their future selection of a specialty. Up to 12% of the students changed their medical specialty choice preference throughout the event. FacharztDuell was well accepted by medical students of all semesters and seems to be supportive for their selection of a future medical specialty. However, longitudinal studies are necessary to better understand the decision making process of medical students along their career path. The FacharztDuell is easily transferrable to other faculties with respect to organization, staff and technical resources.

A new mechanism for warm-season precipitation response to global warming based on convection-permitting simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dai, Aiguo; Rasmussen, Roy M.; Liu, Changhai; Ikeda, Kyoko; Prein, Andreas F.

2017-08-01

Climate models project increasing precipitation intensity but decreasing frequency as greenhouse gases increase. However, the exact mechanism for the frequency decrease remains unclear. Here we investigate this by analyzing hourly data from regional climate change simulations with 4 km grid spacing covering most of North America using the Weather Research and Forecasting model. The model was forced with present and future boundary conditions, with the latter being derived by adding the CMIP5 19-model ensemble mean changes to the ERA-interim reanalysis. The model reproduces well the observed seasonal and spatial variations in precipitation frequency and histograms, and the dry interval between rain events over the contiguous US. Results show that overall precipitation frequency indeed decreases during the warm season mainly due to fewer light-moderate precipitation (0.1 < P ≤ 2.0 mm/h) events, while heavy (2 < P ≤ 10 mm/h) to very heavy precipitation (P > 10 mm/h) events increase. Dry spells become longer and more frequent, together with a reduction in time-mean relative humidity (RH) in the lower troposphere during the warm season. The increased dry hours and decreased RH lead to a reduction in overall precipitation frequency and also for light-moderate precipitation events, while water vapor-induced increases in precipitation intensity and the positive latent heating feedback in intense storms may be responsible for the large increase in intense precipitation. The size of intense storms increases while their number decreases in the future climate, which helps explain the increase in local frequency of heavy precipitation. The results generally support a new hypothesis for future warm-season precipitation: each rainstorm removes ≥7% more moisture from the air per 1 K local warming, and surface evaporation and moisture advection take slightly longer than currently to replenish the depleted moisture before the next storm forms, leading to longer dry spells and a reduction in precipitation frequency, as well as decreases in time-mean RH and vertical motion.

Fact vs fiction--how paratextual information shapes our reading processes.

PubMed

Altmann, Ulrike; Bohrn, Isabel C; Lubrich, Oliver; Menninghaus, Winfried; Jacobs, Arthur M

2014-01-01

Our life is full of stories: some of them depict real-life events and were reported, e.g. in the daily news or in autobiographies, whereas other stories, as often presented to us in movies and novels, are fictional. However, we have only little insights in the neurocognitive processes underlying the reading of factual as compared to fictional contents. We investigated the neurocognitive effects of reading short narratives, labeled to be either factual or fictional. Reading in a factual mode engaged an activation pattern suggesting an action-based reconstruction of the events depicted in a story. This process seems to be past-oriented and leads to shorter reaction times at the behavioral level. In contrast, the brain activation patterns corresponding to reading fiction seem to reflect a constructive simulation of what might have happened. This is in line with studies on imagination of possible past or future events.

Active Missions and the VxOs with THEMIS as an Example

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sibeck, D. G.; Merka, J.

2009-01-01

The Virtual Observatories (VxOs) provide a host of services to data producers and researchers. They help data producers to describe their data in standard Space Physics Archive Search and Extract (SPASE) terms that enable scientists to understand data products from a wide range of missions. They offer search interfaces based on specified criteria that help researchers discover conjunctions, prominent events, and intervals of interest. In this talk, we show how VMO services can be used with Time History of Events and Macroscale Interactions during Substorms (THEMIS) observations to identify magnetotail intervals marked by high speed flows, enhanced densities, or high temperatures. We present statistical surveys of when and where these phenomena occur. We then show how the VMO services can be used to identify events in which two or more THEMIS spacecraft observe specified features for more detailed analysis. We conclude by discussing the current limitations of VMO tools and outline plans for the future.

Fact vs fiction—how paratextual information shapes our reading processes

PubMed Central

Altmann, Ulrike; Bohrn, Isabel C.; Lubrich, Oliver; Menninghaus, Winfried; Jacobs, Arthur M.

2014-01-01

Our life is full of stories: some of them depict real-life events and were reported, e.g. in the daily news or in autobiographies, whereas other stories, as often presented to us in movies and novels, are fictional. However, we have only little insights in the neurocognitive processes underlying the reading of factual as compared to fictional contents. We investigated the neurocognitive effects of reading short narratives, labeled to be either factual or fictional. Reading in a factual mode engaged an activation pattern suggesting an action-based reconstruction of the events depicted in a story. This process seems to be past-oriented and leads to shorter reaction times at the behavioral level. In contrast, the brain activation patterns corresponding to reading fiction seem to reflect a constructive simulation of what might have happened. This is in line with studies on imagination of possible past or future events. PMID:22956671

Relevance of the correlation between precipitation and the 0 °C isothermal altitude for extreme flood estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeimetz, Fraenz; Schaefli, Bettina; Artigue, Guillaume; García Hernández, Javier; Schleiss, Anton J.

2017-08-01

Extreme floods are commonly estimated with the help of design storms and hydrological models. In this paper, we propose a new method to take into account the relationship between precipitation intensity (P) and air temperature (T) to account for potential snow accumulation and melt processes during the elaboration of design storms. The proposed method is based on a detailed analysis of this P-T relationship in the Swiss Alps. The region, no upper precipitation intensity limit is detectable for increasing temperature. However, a relationship between the highest measured temperature before a precipitation event and the duration of the subsequent event could be identified. An explanation for this relationship is proposed here based on the temperature gradient measured before the precipitation events. The relevance of these results is discussed for an example of Probable Maximum Precipitation-Probable Maximum Flood (PMP-PMF) estimation for the high mountainous Mattmark dam catchment in the Swiss Alps. The proposed method to associate a critical air temperature to a PMP is easily transposable to similar alpine settings where meteorological soundings as well as ground temperature and precipitation measurements are available. In the future, the analyses presented here might be further refined by distinguishing between precipitation event types (frontal versus orographic).

Transfusion-Associated Circulatory Overload: Evidence-Based Strategies to Prevent, Identify, and Manage a Serious Adverse Event.

PubMed

Henneman, Elizabeth A; Andrzejewski, Chester; Gawlinski, Anna; McAfee, Kelley; Panaccione, Thomas; Dziel, Kimberly

2017-10-01

Transfusion-associated circulatory overload (TACO) is a potentially life-threatening complication of blood transfusion and is associated with increased morbidity, length of stay (hospital and intensive care unit), and hospital costs. Bedside nurses play a key role in the prevention, identification, and reporting of this complication. A common misperception is that the most frequently encountered serious adverse event during transfusion is a hemolytic reaction in a patient who receives ABO-incompatible blood. In fact, the incidence of TACO-related fatalities is higher than fatalities caused by ABO-related hemolytic reactions. Surveillance and evidence-based strategies such as clinical decision support systems have the potential to reduce the incidence of TACO and mitigate its effects. Practical suggestions for conducting bedside transfusion surveillance and future directions for improving transfusion care are presented. ©2017 American Association of Critical-Care Nurses.

Predicting Liver Transplant Capacity Using Discrete Event Simulation.

PubMed

Toro-Díaz, Hector; Mayorga, Maria E; Barritt, A Sidney; Orman, Eric S; Wheeler, Stephanie B

2015-08-01

The number of liver transplants (LTs) performed in the US increased until 2006 but has since declined despite an ongoing increase in demand. This decline may be due in part to decreased donor liver quality and increasing discard of poor-quality livers. We constructed a discrete event simulation (DES) model informed by current donor characteristics to predict future LT trends through the year 2030. The data source for our model is the United Network for Organ Sharing database, which contains patient-level information on all organ transplants performed in the US. Previous analysis showed that liver discard is increasing and that discarded organs are more often from donors who are older, are obese, have diabetes, and donated after cardiac death. Given that the prevalence of these factors is increasing, the DES model quantifies the reduction in the number of LTs performed through 2030. In addition, the model estimatesthe total number of future donors needed to maintain the current volume of LTs and the effect of a hypothetical scenario of improved reperfusion technology.We also forecast the number of patients on the waiting list and compare this with the estimated number of LTs to illustrate the impact that decreased LTs will have on patients needing transplants. By altering assumptions about the future donor pool, this model can be used to develop policy interventions to prevent a further decline in this lifesaving therapy. To our knowledge, there are no similar predictive models of future LT use based on epidemiological trends. © The Author(s) 2014.

Predicting Liver Transplant Capacity Using Discrete Event Simulation

PubMed Central

Diaz, Hector Toro; Mayorga, Maria; Barritt, A. Sidney; Orman, Eric S.; Wheeler, Stephanie B.

2014-01-01

The number of liver transplants (LTs) performed in the US increased until 2006, but has since declined despite an ongoing increase in demand. This decline may be due in part to decreased donor liver quality and increasing discard of poor quality livers. We constructed a Discrete Event Simulation (DES) model informed by current donor characteristics to predict future LT trends through the year 2030. The data source for our model is the United Network for Organ Sharing database, which contains patient level information on all organ transplants performed in the US. Previous analysis showed that liver discard is increasing and that discarded organs are more often from donors who are older, obese, have diabetes, and donated after cardiac death. Given that the prevalence of these factors is increasing, the DES model quantifies the reduction in the number of LTs performed through 2030. In addition, the model estimates the total number of future donors needed to maintain the current volume of LTs, and the effect of a hypothetical scenario of improved reperfusion technology. We also forecast the number of patients on the waiting list and compare this to the estimated number of LTs to illustrate the impact that decreased LTs will have on patients needing transplants. By altering assumptions about the future donor pool, this model can be used to develop policy interventions to prevent a further decline in this life saving therapy. To our knowledge, there are no similar predictive models of future LT use based on epidemiologic trends. PMID:25391681

Alcoholics' and nonalcoholics' attributions of control of future life events.

PubMed

Wright, M H; Obitz, F W

1984-03-01

Alcoholic and nonalcoholic subjects rated the degree of control that they and others possess over future life events. Alcoholics attributed less personal control over events to themselves than nonalcoholics did. Alcoholics also attributed less control to themselves than to others, whereas nonalcoholics attributed more control to themselves than to others. These differences prevailed despite the similar socioeconomic and demographic characteristics, recent life experiences and beliefs concerning the general controllability of events of both alcoholics and nonalcoholics. The attributions of alcoholics were consistent with others' notions of self-handicapping. The attributions of nonalcoholics were consistent with control motivation. Alcoholics who attributed less control to themselves than to others more frequently failed to complete treatment than did alcoholics who attributed more control to themselves.

Scenario-based risk analysis of winter snowstorms in the German lowlands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

von Wulffen, Anja

2014-05-01

The northern German lowlands are not especially known for a high frequency of snowfall events. Nevertheless under certain synoptic conditions Lake-Effect-like phenomena caused by the proximity especially of the Baltic Sea can lead to significantly reinforced snowfall intensities that are often accompanied by rather high wind speeds. This makes for infrequent but potentially disastrous snowstorms in a region less accustomed to snow impacts. One possible consequence of an infrastructure failure cascade resulting from severe and longer-lasting snowstorms is a regional disruption of the food supply chain. In the context of "just-in-time"-logistics and the accompanying decrease of storage capabilities, this poses a significant threat to the population's food security. Within the project NeuENV ("New strategies to ensure sufficient food supply in case of crisis in Germany") a snowstorm in the German lowlands involving widespread disruptions of the transportation infrastructure as well as power failures is therefore used as one model for future food supply chain disruptions. In order to obtain a reliable evaluation of the supply chain and crisis management resilience, a detailed snowstorm scenario is being developed. For this purpose, a database of impact reports of past snowstorm events is assembled and analysed to obtain a comprehensive overview of potential infrastructure impairments and failures. Examples of events analysed in this context include the winter 1978/79 with its disastrous snow drifts that commonly attained heights of 3m to 5m leading to a transportation infrastructure collapse across a wide area, the wet snow event in November 2005 in the Münsterland region that caused power failures for up to 250.000 homes, and more recent snowstorms such as Daisy in January 2010. A catalogue of thresholds for relevant parameters indicating when significant failures can be expected is then compiled through a comparison of impact reports with the detailed meteorological conditions. Based on these findings, an exemplary synoptic evolution of a snowstorm leading to representative infrastructure failure cascades is constructed. In a next step, an extrapolation of this obtained scenario to future climate and societal conditions as well as plausible more extreme but not yet observed meteorological conditions is planned in order to obtain a thorough analysis of possible threats to the German food distribution system and a strong foundation for future disaster mitigation planning efforts.

The European 2015 drought from a hydrological perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laaha, Gregor; Gauster, Tobias; Delus, Claire; Vidal, Jean-Philippe

2016-04-01

The year 2015 was hot and dry in many European countries. A timely assessment of its hydrological impacts constitutes a difficult task, because stream flow records are often not available within 2-3 years after recording. Moreover, monitoring is performed on a national or even provincial basis. There are still major barriers of data access, especially for eastern European countries. Wherever data are available, their compatibility poses a major challenge. In two companion papers we summarize a collaborative initiative of members of UNESCO's FRIEND-Water program to perform a timely Pan-European assessment of the 2015 drought. In this second part we analyse the hydrological perspective based on streamflow observations. We first describe the data access strategy and the assessment method. We than present the results consisting of a range of low flow indices calculated for about 800 gauges across Europe. We compare the characteristics of the 2015 drought with the average, long-term conditions, and with the specific conditions of the 2003 drought, which is often used as a worst-case benchmark to gauge future drought events. Overall, the hydrological 2015 drought is characterised by a much smaller spatial extend than the 2003 drought. Extreme streamflows are observed mainly in a band North of the Alps spanning from E-France to Poland. In terms of flow magnitude, Czech, E-Germany and N-Austria were most affected. In this region the low flows often had return periods of 100 years and more, indicating that the event was much more severe than the 2003 event. In terms of deficit volumes, the centre of the event was more oriented towards S-Germany. Based on a detailed assessment of the spatio-temporal characteristics at various scales, we are able to explain the different behaviour in these regions by diverging wetness preconditions in the catchments. This suggest that the sole knowledge of atmospheric indices is not sufficient to characterise hydrological drought events. We claim that assessment of impacts on water resources requires hydrological data and additional efforts of Pan-European dimension need to be undertaken to make hydrological assessments more operational in the future.

A Global Drought and Flood Catalogue for the past 100 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheffield, J.; He, X.; Peng, L.; Pan, M.; Fisher, C. K.; Wood, E. F.

2017-12-01

Extreme hydrological events cause the most impacts of natural hazards globally, impacting on a wide range of sectors including, most prominently, agriculture, food security and water availability and quality, but also on energy production, forestry, health, transportation and fisheries. Understanding how floods and droughts intersect, and have changed in the past provides the basis for understanding current risk and how it may change in the future. To do this requires an understanding of the mechanisms associated with events and therefore their predictability, attribution of long-term changes in risk, and quantification of projections of changes in the future. Of key importance are long-term records of relevant variables so that risk can be quantified more accurately, given the growing acknowledgement that risk is not stationary under long-term climate variability and climate change. To address this, we develop a catalogue of drought and flood events based on land surface and hydrodynamic modeling, forced by a hybrid meteorological dataset that draws from the continuity and coverage of reanalysis, and satellite datasets, merged with global gauge databases. The meteorological dataset is corrected for temporal inhomogeneities, spurious trends and variable inter-dependencies to ensure long-term consistency, as well as realistic representation of short-term variability and extremes. The VIC land surface model is run for the past 100 years at 0.25-degree resolution for global land areas. The VIC runoff is then used to drive the CaMa-Flood hydrodynamic model to obtain information on flood inundation risk. The model outputs are compared to satellite based estimates of flood and drought conditions and the observational flood record. The data are analyzed in terms of the spatio-temporal characteristics of large-scale flood and drought events with a particular focus on characterizing the long-term variability in risk. Significant changes in risk occur on multi-decadal time scales and are mostly associated with variability in the North Atlantic and Pacific. The catalogue can be used for analysis of extreme events, risk assessment, and as a benchmark for model evaluation.

The association of tooth scaling and decreased cardiovascular disease: a nationwide population-based study.

PubMed

Chen, Zu-Yin; Chiang, Chia-Hung; Huang, Chin-Chou; Chung, Chia-Min; Chan, Wan-Leong; Huang, Po-Hsun; Lin, Shing-Jong; Chen, Jaw-Wen; Leu, Hsin-Bang

2012-06-01

Poor oral hygiene has been associated with an increased risk for cardiovascular disease. However, the association between preventive dentistry and cardiovascular risk reduction has remained undetermined. The aim of this study is to investigate the association between tooth scaling and the risk of cardiovascular events by using a nationwide, population-based study and a prospective cohort design. Our analyses were conducted using information from a random sample of 1 million persons enrolled in the nationally representative Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database. Exposed individuals consisted of all subjects who were aged ≥ 50 years and who received at least 1 tooth scaling in 2000. The comparison group of non-exposed persons consisted of persons who did not undergo tooth scaling and were matched to exposed individuals using propensity score matching by the time of enrollment, age, gender, history of coronary artery disease, diabetes, hypertension, and hyperlipidemia. During an average follow-up period of 7 years, 10,887 subjects who had ever received tooth scaling (exposed group) and 10,989 age-, gender-, and comorbidity-matched subjects who had not received tooth scaling (non-exposed group) were enrolled. The exposed group had a lower incidence of acute myocardial infarction (1.6% vs 2.2%, P<.001), stroke (8.9% vs 10%, P=.03), and total cardiovascular events (10% vs 11.6%, P<.001) when compared with the non-exposed group. After multivariate analysis, tooth scaling was an independent factor associated with less risk of developing future myocardial infarction (hazard ratio [HR], 0.69; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.57-0.85), stroke (HR, 0.85; 95% CI, 0.78-0.93), and total cardiovascular events (HR, 0.84; 95% CI, 0.77-0.91). Furthermore, when compared with the non-exposed group, increasing frequency of tooth scaling correlated with a higher risk reduction of acute myocardial infarction, stroke, and total cardiovascular events (P for trend<.001). Tooth scaling was associated with a decreased risk for future cardiovascular events. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The FReedom from Ischemic Events-New Dimensions for Survival (FRIENDS) registry: design of a prospective cohort study of patients with advanced peripheral artery disease.

PubMed

Keo, Hong H; Duval, Sue; Baumgartner, Iris; Oldenburg, Niki C; Jaff, Michael R; Goldman, JoAnne; Peacock, James M; Tretinyak, Alexander S; Henry, Timothy D; Luepker, Russell V; Hirsch, Alan T

2013-12-19

Advanced lower extremity peripheral artery disease (PAD), whether presenting as acute limb ischemia (ALI) or chronic critical limb ischemia (CLI), is associated with high rates of cardiovascular ischemic events, amputation, and death. Past research has focused on strategies of revascularization, but few data are available that prospectively evaluate the impact of key process of care factors (spanning pre-admission, acute hospitalization, and post-discharge) that might contribute to improving short and long-term health outcomes. The FRIENDS registry is designed to prospectively evaluate a range of patient and health system care delivery factors that might serve as future targets for efforts to improve limb and systemic outcomes for patients with ALI or CLI. This hypothesis-driven registry was designed to evaluate the contributions of: (i) pre-hospital limb ischemia symptom duration, (ii) use of leg revascularization strategies, and (iii) use of risk-reduction pharmacotherapies, as pre-specified factors that may affect amputation-free survival. Sequential patients would be included at an index "vascular specialist-defined" ALI or CLI episode, and patients excluded only for non-vascular etiologies of limb threat. Data including baseline demographics, functional status, co-morbidities, pre-hospital time segments, and use of medical therapies; hospital-based use of revascularization strategies, time segments, and pharmacotherapies; and rates of systemic ischemic events (e.g., myocardial infarction, stroke, hospitalization, and death) and limb ischemic events (e.g., hospitalization for revascularization or amputation) will be recorded during a minimum of one year follow-up. The FRIENDS registry is designed to evaluate the potential impact of key factors that may contribute to adverse outcomes for patients with ALI or CLI. Definition of new "health system-based" therapeutic targets could then become the focus of future interventional clinical trials for individuals with advanced PAD.

Increasing critical sensitivity of the Load/Unload Response Ratio before large earthquakes with identified stress accumulation pattern

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Huai-zhong; Shen, Zheng-kang; Wan, Yong-ge; Zhu, Qing-yong; Yin, Xiang-chu

2006-12-01

The Load/Unload Response Ratio (LURR) method is proposed for short-to-intermediate-term earthquake prediction [Yin, X.C., Chen, X.Z., Song, Z.P., Yin, C., 1995. A New Approach to Earthquake Prediction — The Load/Unload Response Ratio (LURR) Theory, Pure Appl. Geophys., 145, 701-715]. This method is based on measuring the ratio between Benioff strains released during the time periods of loading and unloading, corresponding to the Coulomb Failure Stress change induced by Earth tides on optimally oriented faults. According to the method, the LURR time series usually climb to an anomalously high peak prior to occurrence of a large earthquake. Previous studies have indicated that the size of critical seismogenic region selected for LURR measurements has great influence on the evaluation of LURR. In this study, we replace the circular region usually adopted in LURR practice with an area within which the tectonic stress change would mostly affect the Coulomb stress on a potential seismogenic fault of a future event. The Coulomb stress change before a hypothetical earthquake is calculated based on a simple back-slip dislocation model of the event. This new algorithm, by combining the LURR method with our choice of identified area with increased Coulomb stress, is devised to improve the sensitivity of LURR to measure criticality of stress accumulation before a large earthquake. Retrospective tests of this algorithm on four large earthquakes occurred in California over the last two decades show remarkable enhancement of the LURR precursory anomalies. For some strong events of lesser magnitudes occurred in the same neighborhoods and during the same time periods, significant anomalies are found if circular areas are used, and are not found if increased Coulomb stress areas are used for LURR data selection. The unique feature of this algorithm may provide stronger constraints on forecasts of the size and location of future large events.

Long-term use and cost-effectiveness of secondary prevention drugs for heart disease in Western Australian seniors (WAMACH): a study protocol

PubMed Central

Gunnell, Anthony S; Knuiman, Matthew W; Geelhoed, Elizabeth; Hobbs, Michael S T; Katzenellenbogen, Judith M; Hung, Joseph; Rankin, Jamie M; Nedkoff, Lee; Briffa, Thomas G; Ortiz, Michael; Gillies, Malcolm; Cordingley, Anne; Messer, Mitch; Gardner, Christian; Lopez, Derrick; Atkins, Emily; Mai, Qun; Sanfilippo, Frank M

2014-01-01

Introduction Secondary prevention drugs for cardiac disease have been demonstrated by clinical trials to be effective in reducing future cardiovascular and mortality events (WAMACH is the Western Australian Medication Adherence and Costs in Heart disease study). Hence, most countries have adopted health policies and guidelines for the use of these drugs, and included them in government subsidised drug lists to encourage their use. However, suboptimal prescribing and non-adherence to these drugs remains a universal problem. Our study will investigate trends in dispensing patterns of drugs for secondary prevention of cardiovascular events and will also identify factors influencing these patterns. It will also assess the clinical and economic consequences of non-adherence and the cost-effectiveness of using these drugs. Methods and analysis This population-based cohort study will use longitudinal data on almost 40 000 people aged 65 years or older who were hospitalised in Western Australia between 2003 and 2008 for coronary heart disease, heart failure or atrial fibrillation. Linking of several State and Federal government administrative data sets will provide person-based information on drugs dispensed precardiac and postcardiac event, reasons for hospital admission, emergency department visits, mortality and medical visits. Dispensed drug trends will be described, drug adherence measured and their association with future all-cause/cardiovascular events will be estimated. The cost-effectiveness of these long-term therapies for cardiac disease and the impact of adherence will be evaluated. Ethics and dissemination Human Research Ethics Committee (HREC) approvals have been obtained from the Department of Health (Western Australian #2011/62 and Federal) and the University of Western Australia (RA/4/1/1130), in addition to HREC approvals from all participating hospitals. Findings will be published in peer-reviewed medical journals and presented at local, national and international conferences. Results will also be disseminated to consumer groups. PMID:25234510

A role for affect in the link between episodic simulation and prosociality.

PubMed

Gaesser, Brendan; DiBiase, Haley D; Kensinger, Elizabeth A

2017-09-01

Prospection and prosociality are hallmarks of our species. Little is known, however, about how our ability to imagine or simulate specific future events contributes to our capacity for prosociality. Here, we investigated this relationship, revealing how the affective response that arises from a simulated prosocial event motivates a willingness to help a person in need. Across two experiments, people reported being more willing to help in specific situations after simulating future helping events that elicited positive (versus negative or neutral) affect. Positive affect increased engagement of theory of mind for the person in need, which in turn informed prosocial responses. Moreover, the subjective experience of scene imagery and theory of mind systematically couple together depending on the affective valence of future simulations, providing new insight into how affective valence guides a prosocial function of episodic simulation.

Fecal indicator organism modeling and microbial source tracking in environmental waters: Chapter 3.4.6

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nevers, Meredith; Byappanahalli, Muruleedhara; Phanikumar, Mantha S.; Whitman, Richard L.

2016-01-01

Mathematical models have been widely applied to surface waters to estimate rates of settling, resuspension, flow, dispersion, and advection in order to calculate movement of particles that influence water quality. Of particular interest are the movement, survival, and persistence of microbial pathogens or their surrogates, which may contaminate recreational water, drinking water, or shellfish. Most models devoted to microbial water quality have been focused on fecal indicator organisms (FIO), which act as a surrogate for pathogens and viruses. Process-based modeling and statistical modeling have been used to track contamination events to source and to predict future events. The use of these two types of models require different levels of expertise and input; process-based models rely on theoretical physical constructs to explain present conditions and biological distribution while data-based, statistical models use extant paired data to do the same. The selection of the appropriate model and interpretation of results is critical to proper use of these tools in microbial source tracking. Integration of the modeling approaches could provide insight for tracking and predicting contamination events in real time. A review of modeling efforts reveals that process-based modeling has great promise for microbial source tracking efforts; further, combining the understanding of physical processes influencing FIO contamination developed with process-based models and molecular characterization of the population by gene-based (i.e., biological) or chemical markers may be an effective approach for locating sources and remediating contamination in order to protect human health better.

A Basis Function Approach to Simulate Storm Surge Events for Coastal Flood Risk Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Wenyan; Westra, Seth; Leonard, Michael

2017-04-01

Storm surge is a significant contributor to flooding in coastal and estuarine regions, especially when it coincides with other flood producing mechanisms, such as extreme rainfall. Therefore, storm surge has always been a research focus in coastal flood risk assessment. Often numerical models have been developed to understand storm surge events for risk assessment (Kumagai et al. 2016; Li et al. 2016; Zhang et al. 2016) (Bastidas et al. 2016; Bilskie et al. 2016; Dalledonne and Mayerle 2016; Haigh et al. 2014; Kodaira et al. 2016; Lapetina and Sheng 2015), and assess how these events may change or evolve in the future (Izuru et al. 2015; Oey and Chou 2016). However, numeric models often require a lot of input information and difficulties arise when there are not sufficient data available (Madsen et al. 2015). Alternative, statistical methods have been used to forecast storm surge based on historical data (Hashemi et al. 2016; Kim et al. 2016) or to examine the long term trend in the change of storm surge events, especially under climate change (Balaguru et al. 2016; Oh et al. 2016; Rueda et al. 2016). In these studies, often the peak of surge events is used, which result in the loss of dynamic information within a tidal cycle or surge event (i.e. a time series of storm surge values). In this study, we propose an alternative basis function (BF) based approach to examine the different attributes (e.g. peak and durations) of storm surge events using historical data. Two simple two-parameter BFs were used: the exponential function and the triangular function. High quality hourly storm surge record from 15 tide gauges around Australia were examined. It was found that there are significantly location and seasonal variability in the peak and duration of storm surge events, which provides additional insights in coastal flood risk. In addition, the simple form of these BFs allows fast simulation of storm surge events and minimises the complexity of joint probability analysis for flood risk analysis considering multiple flood producing mechanisms. This is the first step in applying a Monte Carlo based joint probability method for flood risk assessment.

On the utilization of hydrological modelling for road drainage design under climate and land use change.

PubMed

Kalantari, Zahra; Briel, Annemarie; Lyon, Steve W; Olofsson, Bo; Folkeson, Lennart

2014-03-15

Road drainage structures are often designed using methods that do not consider process-based representations of a landscape's hydrological response. This may create inadequately sized structures as coupled land cover and climate changes can lead to an amplified hydrological response. This study aims to quantify potential increases of runoff in response to future extreme rain events in a 61 km(2) catchment (40% forested) in southwest Sweden using a physically-based hydrological modelling approach. We simulate peak discharge and water level (stage) at two types of pipe bridges and one culvert, both of which are commonly used at Swedish road/stream intersections, under combined forest clear-cutting and future climate scenarios for 2050 and 2100. The frequency of changes in peak flow and water level varies with time (seasonality) and storm size. These changes indicate that the magnitude of peak flow and the runoff response are highly correlated to season rather than storm size. In all scenarios considered, the dimensions of the current culvert are insufficient to handle the increase in water level estimated using a physically-based modelling approach. It also appears that the water level at the pipe bridges changes differently depending on the size and timing of the storm events. The findings of the present study and the approach put forward should be considered when planning investigations on and maintenance for areas at risk of high water flows. In addition, the research highlights the utility of physically-based hydrological models to identify the appropriateness of road drainage structure dimensioning. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Modelling the Impacts of Changing Land Cover/Land Use and Climate on Flooding in the Elk River Watershed, British Columbia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barnes, C. C.; Byrne, J. M.; Hopkinson, C.; MacDonald, R. J.; Johnson, D. L.

2015-12-01

The Elk River is a mountain watershed located along the eastern border of British Columbia, Canada. The Elk River is confined by railway bridges, roads, and urban areas. Flooding has been a concern in the valley for more than a century. The most recent major flood event occurred in 2013 affecting several communities. River modifications such as riprapped dykes, channelization, and dredging have occurred in an attempt to reduce inundation, with limited success. Significant changes in land cover/land use (LCLU) such as natural state to urban, forestry practices, and mining from underground to mountaintop/valley fill have changed terrain and ground surfaces thereby altering water infiltration and runoff processes in the watershed. Future climate change in this region is expected to alter air temperature and precipitation as well as produce an earlier seasonal spring freshet potentially impacting future flood events. The objective of this research is to model historical and future hydrological conditions to identify flood frequency and risk under a range of climate and LCLU change scenarios in the Elk River watershed. Historic remote sensing data, forest management plans, and mining industry production/post-mining reclamation plans will be used to create a predictive past and future LCLU time series. A range of future air temperature and precipitation scenarios will be developed based on accepted Global Climate Modelling (GCM) research to examine how the hydrometeorological conditions may be altered under a range of future climate scenarios. The GENESYS (GENerate Earth SYstems Science input) hydrometeorological model will be used to simulate climate and LCLU to assess historic and potential future flood frequency and magnitude. Results will be used to create innovative flood mitigation, adaptation, and management strategies for the Elk River with the intent of being wildlife friendly and non-destructive to ecosystems and habitats for native species.

Flexibility decline contributes to similarity of past and future thinking in Alzheimer's disease.

PubMed

El Haj, Mohamad; Antoine, Pascal; Kapogiannis, Dimitrios

2015-11-01

A striking similarity has been suggested between past and future thinking in Alzheimer's Disease (AD), a similarity attributable to abnormalities in common modular cognitive functions and neuroanatomical substrates. This study extends this literature by identifying specific executive function deficits underlying past and future thinking in AD. Twenty-four participants with a clinical diagnosis of probable (mild) AD and 26 older controls generated past and future events and underwent tests of binding and the executive functions of flexibility, inhibition, and updating. AD patients showed similar autobiographical performances in past and future event generation, and so did control participants. In each group, the similarity of past and future thinking was predicted by flexibility. Furthermore, AD patients with low flexibility showed higher similarity of past and future thinking than those with high flexibility. These findings are interpreted in terms of involvement of the hippocampus and frontal lobes in future thinking. Deficits in these brain regions in AD are likely to compromise the ability to recombine episodic information into novel and flexible configurations as scenarios for the future. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Flexibility Decline Contributes to Similarity of Past and Future Thinking in Alzheimer’s Disease

PubMed Central

El Haj, Mohamad; Antoine, Pascal; Kapogiannis, Dimitrios

2017-01-01

A striking similarity has been suggested between past and future thinking in Alzheimer’s Disease (AD), a similarity attributable to abnormalities in common modular cognitive functions and neuroanatomical substrates. This study extends this literature by identifying specific executive function deficits underlying past and future thinking in AD. Twenty-four participants with a clinical diagnosis of probable (mild) AD and 26 older controls generated past and future events and underwent tests of binding and the executive functions of flexibility, inhibition, and updating. AD patients showed similar autobiographical performances in past and future event generation, and so did control participants. In each group, the similarity of past and future thinking was predicted by flexibility. Furthermore, AD patients with low flexibility showed higher similarity of past and future thinking than those with high flexibility. These findings are interpreted in terms of involvement of the hippocampus and frontal lobes in future thinking. Deficits in these brain regions in AD are likely to compromise the ability to recombine episodic information into novel and flexible configurations as scenarios for the future. PMID:25850800

Comparison of response rates on invitation mode of a web-based survey on influenza vaccine adverse events among healthcare workers: a pilot study.

PubMed

Tai, Xiaochen; Smith, Alanna M; McGeer, Allison J; Dubé, Eve; Holness, Dorothy Linn; Katz, Kevin; McGillis Hall, Linda; McNeil, Shelly A; Powis, Jeff; Coleman, Brenda L

2018-06-20

Web-based surveys have become increasingly popular but response rates are low and may be prone to selection bias. How people are invited to participate may impact response rates and needs further study as previous evidence is contradictory. The purpose of this study was to determine whether response to a web-based survey of healthcare workers would be higher with a posted or an emailed invitation. We also report results of the pilot study, which aims to estimate the percentage of adults vaccinated against influenza who report recurrent systemic adverse events (the same systemic adverse event occurring successively following receipt of influenza vaccines). The pilot study was conducted in November 2016 in Toronto, Canada. Members of a registry of adults (18 years and older and predominantly healthcare workers) who volunteered to receive information regarding future studies about influenza were randomly assigned to receive either an email or postal invitation to complete a web-based survey regarding influenza vaccinations. Non-respondents received one reminder using the same mode of contact as their original invitation. The overall response rate was higher for those sent the invitation by email (34.8%) than by post (25.8%; p < 0.001) and for older versus younger participants (p trend  < 0.001). Of those who responded, 387/401 had been vaccinated against influenza at least once since adulthood. Of those responding to the question, 70/386 (18.1%) reported a systemic adverse event after their most recent influenza vaccine including 22 (5.7%) who reported a recurring systemic event. Systemic adverse events were reported more often by males 18-49 years old than by other groups (p = 0.01). Recurrent systemic adverse events were similar by age and sex with muscle ache being the most commonly reported recurrent reaction. More respondents who reported only a local adverse event (93.1%) planned to be vaccinated again next year than those with a systemic adverse event (69.7%; p = 0.04). In this convenience sample of registry volunteers, response rates were generally low, but were higher for the emailed than posted invitations and for older than younger adults.

Alternative Environments for Army Recruiting, 1987-2001. Volume 3

DTIC Science & Technology

1988-01-01

study investigating the cultural script, known as ’simpatia’, among Hispanic and mainstream recruits found’that Hispanics expect more positive...A16 joblessness of black men. Another reason for more black children in single-parent families is the high degree of teen-age pregnancies among ... investigate systematically the "cross correlations" among future events (and only future events) to determine, among other things, if improved

Analyzing and Identifying Teens' Stressful Periods and Stressor Events From a Microblog.

PubMed

Li, Qi; Xue, Yuanyuan; Zhao, Liang; Jia, Jia; Feng, Ling

2017-09-01

Increased health problems among adolescents caused by psychological stress have aroused worldwide attention. Long-standing stress without targeted assistance and guidance negatively impacts the healthy growth of adolescents, threatening the future development of our society. So far, research focused on detecting adolescent psychological stress revealed from each individual post on microblogs. However, beyond stressful moments, identifying teens' stressful periods and stressor events that trigger each stressful period is more desirable to understand the stress from appearance to essence. In this paper, we define the problem of identifying teens' stressful periods and stressor events from the open social media microblog. Starting from a case study of adolescents' posting behaviors during stressful school events, we build a Poisson-based probability model for the correlation between stressor events and stressful posting behaviors through a series of posts on Tencent Weibo (referred to as the microblog throughout the paper). With the model, we discover teens' maximal stressful periods and further extract details of possible stressor events that cause the stressful periods. We generalize and present the extracted stressor events in a hierarchy based on common stress dimensions and event types. Taking 122 scheduled stressful study-related events in a high school as the ground truth, we test the approach on 124 students' posts from January 1, 2012 to February 1, 2015 and obtain some promising experimental results: (stressful periods: recall 0.761, precision 0.737, and F 1 -measure 0.734) and (top-3 stressor events: recall 0.763, precision 0.756, and F 1 -measure 0.759). The most prominent stressor events extracted are in the self-cognition domain, followed by the school life domain. This conforms to the adolescent psychological investigation result that problems in school life usually accompanied with teens' inner cognition problems. Compared with the state-of-the-art top-1 personal life event detection approach, our stressor event detection method is 13.72% higher in precision, 19.18% higher in recall, and 16.50% higher in F 1 -measure, demonstrating the effectiveness of our proposed framework.

Video content analysis of surgical procedures.

PubMed

Loukas, Constantinos

2018-02-01

In addition to its therapeutic benefits, minimally invasive surgery offers the potential for video recording of the operation. The videos may be archived and used later for reasons such as cognitive training, skills assessment, and workflow analysis. Methods from the major field of video content analysis and representation are increasingly applied in the surgical domain. In this paper, we review recent developments and analyze future directions in the field of content-based video analysis of surgical operations. The review was obtained from PubMed and Google Scholar search on combinations of the following keywords: 'surgery', 'video', 'phase', 'task', 'skills', 'event', 'shot', 'analysis', 'retrieval', 'detection', 'classification', and 'recognition'. The collected articles were categorized and reviewed based on the technical goal sought, type of surgery performed, and structure of the operation. A total of 81 articles were included. The publication activity is constantly increasing; more than 50% of these articles were published in the last 3 years. Significant research has been performed for video task detection and retrieval in eye surgery. In endoscopic surgery, the research activity is more diverse: gesture/task classification, skills assessment, tool type recognition, shot/event detection and retrieval. Recent works employ deep neural networks for phase and tool recognition as well as shot detection. Content-based video analysis of surgical operations is a rapidly expanding field. Several future prospects for research exist including, inter alia, shot boundary detection, keyframe extraction, video summarization, pattern discovery, and video annotation. The development of publicly available benchmark datasets to evaluate and compare task-specific algorithms is essential.

Landslides in West Coast Metropolitan Areas: The Role of Extreme Weather Events

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Biasutti, Michela; Seager, Richard; Kirschbaum, Dalia B.

2016-01-01

Rainfall-induced landslides represent a pervasive issue in areas where extreme rainfall intersects complex terrain. A farsighted management of landslide risk requires assessing how landslide hazard will change in coming decades and thus requires, inter alia, that we understand what rainfall events are most likely to trigger landslides and how global warming will affect the frequency of such weather events. We take advantage of 9 years of landslide occurrence data compiled by collating Google news reports and of a high-resolution satellite-based daily rainfall data to investigate what weather triggers landslide along the West Coast US. We show that, while this landslide compilation cannot provide consistent and widespread monitoring everywhere, it captures enough of the events in the major urban areas that it can be used to identify the relevant relationships between landslides and rainfall events in Puget Sound, the Bay Area, and greater Los Angeles. In all these regions, days that recorded landslides have rainfall distributions that are skewed away from dry and low-rainfall accumulations and towards heavy intensities. However, large daily accumulation is the main driver of enhanced hazard of landslides only in Puget Sound. There, landslide are often clustered in space and time and major events are primarily driven by synoptic scale variability, namely "atmospheric rivers" of high humidity air hitting anywhere along the West Coast, and the interaction of frontal system with the coastal orography. The relationship between landslide occurrences and daily rainfall is less robust in California, where antecedent precipitation (in the case of the Bay area) and the peak intensity of localized downpours at sub-daily time scales (in the case of Los Angeles) are key factors not captured by the same-day accumulations. Accordingly, we suggest that the assessment of future changes in landslide hazard for the entire the West Coast requires consideration of future changes in the occurrence and intensity of atmospheric rivers, in their duration and clustering, and in the occurrence of short-duration (sub-daily) extreme rainfall as well. Major regional landslide events, in which multiple occurrences are recorded in the catalog for the same day, are too rare to allow a statistical characterization of their triggering events, but a case study analysis indicates that a variety of synoptic-scale events can be involved, including not only atmospheric rivers but also broader cold- and warm-front precipitation. That a news-based catalog of landslides is accurate enough to allow the identification of different landslide/ rainfall relationships in the major urban areas along the US West Coast suggests that this technology can potentially be used for other English-language cities and could become an even more powerful tool if expanded to other languages and non-traditional news sources, such as social media.

Serial assessment of arterial stiffness by cardio-ankle vascular index for prediction of future cardiovascular events in patients with coronary artery disease.

PubMed

Otsuka, Kenichiro; Fukuda, Shota; Shimada, Kenei; Suzuki, Kenji; Nakanishi, Koki; Yoshiyama, Minoru; Yoshikawa, Junichi

2014-11-01

Arterial stiffness is a significant predictor of cardiovascular disease (CVD), the risk of which is modified by medications for atherosclerotic risk factors and life-style changes. Cardio-ankle vascular index (CAVI) provides noninvasive, objective information on arterial stiffness, independent of blood pressure. This study aimed to investigate changes in CAVI after management of atherosclerotic risk factors, and the impact of these changes on future CVD outcomes in patients with coronary artery disease (CAD). The study consisted of 211 CAD patients (65 ± 10 years, 118 men) with impaired CAVI. CAVI examination was repeated 6 months later. Impaired CAVI was defined as greater than the mean plus 1 s.d. of the age- and gender-specific normal CAVI values, according to results obtained in 5188 healthy subjects. All patients were followed for > 1 year or until the occurrence of a CVD event. Of the 211 patients, CAVI improved in 106 (50%) patients after 6 months, but remained high in 105 (50%) patients. During follow-up (2.9 ± 1.0 years), CVD events occurred in 28 (13%) patients. Persistently impaired CAVI was an independent predictor of future CVD events (P = 0.01), independent of baseline CAVI. CVD outcomes were worse in patients with persistently impaired CAVI than in those with improved CAVI (P < 0.001). Among patients with a normalized CAVI after treatment (n = 22) only one suffered a CVD event. This study was the first to demonstrate that persistent impairment of arterial stiffness was an independent risk factor of future CVD events. Serial measurements of CAVI provide important prognostic information regarding patients with CAD in clinical practice.

Impact of climate change on persistent turbidity in the water supply system of a Metropolitan Area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chung, S. W.; Park, H. S.; Lim, K. J.; Kang, B.

2016-12-01

Persistent turbidity, a long-term resuspension of fine particles in aquatic system, is one of the major water quality concerns for the sustainable management of water supply systems in metropolitan areas. Turbid water has undesirable aesthetic and recreational appeal and may have harmful effect on ecosystem health, in addition to increasing water treatment costs in drinking water supply systems. These concerns have been more intensified as the strength and frequency of rainfall events increase by climate change in the Asian monsoon climate region, including Korea. The aim of this study was to assess the impact of potential climate change on the persistent turbidity of the Han River systems that supplies drinking water to approximately 25 million consumers dwelling in the Seoul Metropolitan areas. A comprehensive numerical and statistical modeling suit has been developed and applied to the systems for the projection of future climate, responding hydrological and soil erosion processes in the watershed, and sediment transport processes in the rivers and reservoirs systems. The down-scaled 100 years of climatic data from General Circulation Model (HadGEM2-AO) based on the IPCC's greenhouse-gas emissions scenario RCP4.5 were used for the forcing data of the watershed and river-reservoir models. As the results, an extreme flood event that may incur significant persistent turbidity was projected to be occurred five times in the future. The threshold of a flood event that is classified as an extreme event was based on the historical flood event that occurred on July of 2006 when turbid water had persisted within the Soyang Reservoir and discharged to the downstream of the Han River systems over the year until May of the following year. A two-dimensional river and reservoir model simulated the transport and dynamics of suspended sediments in Soyang Reservoir, and routed the discharged turbid water to the downstream of Paldang Reservoir, in which most of the drinking water offtake facilities are located. The statistical features of the extreme flood events, their impact on the persistent turbidity on the downstream rivers and reservoirs, and consequently on the water supply system of the Seoul Metropolitan areas will be presented in the special session.

Absolute locations of the North Korean nuclear tests based on differential seismic travel times and InSAR

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Myers, S. C.; Ford, S. R.; Mellors, R. J.; Ichinose, G.

2017-12-01

We use constraints on the location of the January 6, 2016 DPRK announced nuclear test (2016_01) and differential travel times for Pn, Pg, and teleseismic P-waves to estimate the absolute locations of the 6 announced DPRK nuclear tests, as well as other nearby events. Absolute location constraints are based on the fit of commercial InSAR-derived ground displacement and predictions of elastic displacement from an isotropic source including topographic effects. Results show that the announced tests in January and September of 2016 are under the crest of highest local topography (Mt. Mantap), while the 2009 and 2013 events are south of the topographic crest at a similar contour in local topography. The first announced test in 2006 was located near the crest of a separate topographic high approximately 2.75 km east of the 2016_01 test. The September 3, 2017 event is approximately between the two 2016 tests, under the crest of the mountain ridge. Constraints from seismic data put the events within 1 km of the surface and depths may be inferred, with caution, by differencing the elevation of tunnel entrances and the topographic surface and accounting for the rise in a tunnel elevation from the entrance to facilitate drainage. Depths for the 2006_10, 2009_05, 2013_02, 2016_01, 2016_09, and 2017_09 tests are estimated to be 500 m, 530 m, 530 m, 740 m, 750 m, and 750 m, respectively. Other nearby events are considerably lower in magnitude, resulting in location estimates that are not as well constrained as the announced nuclear tests. Analysis of all events provides a bulletin of events that may occur in the future. Prepared by LLNL under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344.

NEVER forget: negative emotional valence enhances recapitulation.

PubMed

Bowen, Holly J; Kark, Sarah M; Kensinger, Elizabeth A

2018-06-01

A hallmark feature of episodic memory is that of "mental time travel," whereby an individual feels they have returned to a prior moment in time. Cognitive and behavioral neuroscience methods have revealed a neurobiological counterpart: Successful retrieval often is associated with reactivation of a prior brain state. We review the emerging literature on memory reactivation and recapitulation, and we describe evidence for the effects of emotion on these processes. Based on this review, we propose a new model: Negative Emotional Valence Enhances Recapitulation (NEVER). This model diverges from existing models of emotional memory in three key ways. First, it underscores the effects of emotion during retrieval. Second, it stresses the importance of sensory processing to emotional memory. Third, it emphasizes how emotional valence - whether an event is negative or positive - affects the way that information is remembered. The model specifically proposes that, as compared to positive events, negative events both trigger increased encoding of sensory detail and elicit a closer resemblance between the sensory encoding signature and the sensory retrieval signature. The model also proposes that negative valence enhances the reactivation and storage of sensory details over offline periods, leading to a greater divergence between the sensory recapitulation of negative and positive memories over time. Importantly, the model proposes that these valence-based differences occur even when events are equated for arousal, thus rendering an exclusively arousal-based theory of emotional memory insufficient. We conclude by discussing implications of the model and suggesting directions for future research to test the tenets of the model.

Analysis of extreme rainfall events using attributes control charts in temporal rainfall processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Villeta, María; Valencia, Jose Luis; Saá-Requejo, Antonio; María Tarquis, Ana

2015-04-01

The impacts of most intense rainfall events on agriculture and insurance industry can be very severe. This research focuses in the analysis of extreme rainfall events throughout the use of attributes control charts, which constitutes a usual tool in Statistical Process Control (SPC) but unusual in climate studios. Here, series of daily precipitations for the years 1931-2009 within a Spanish region are analyzed, based on a new type of attributes control chart that takes into account the autocorrelation between the extreme rainfall events. The aim is to conclude if there exist or not evidence of a change in the extreme rainfall model of the considered series. After adjusting seasonally the precipitation series and considering the data of the first 30 years, a frequency-based criterion allowed fixing specification limits in order to discriminate between extreme observed rainfall days and normal observed rainfall days. The autocorrelation amongst maximum precipitation is taken into account by a New Binomial Markov Extended Process obtained for each rainfall series. These modelling of the extreme rainfall processes provide a way to generate the attributes control charts for the annual fraction of rainfall extreme days. The extreme rainfall processes along the rest of the years under study can then be monitored by such attributes control charts. The results of the application of this methodology show evidence of change in the model of extreme rainfall events in some of the analyzed precipitation series. This suggests that the attributes control charts proposed for the analysis of the most intense precipitation events will be of practical interest to agriculture and insurance sectors in next future.

Frequency and Acceptability of Adverse Events After Anterior Cervical Discectomy and Fusion: A Survey Study From the Cervical Spine Research Society.

PubMed

Wilson, Jefferson R; Radcliff, Kris; Schroeder, Gregory; Booth, Madison; Lucasti, Christopher; Fehlings, Michael; Ahmad, Nassr; Vaccaro, Alexander; Arnold, Paul; Sciubba, Daniel; Ching, Alex; Smith, Justin; Shaffrey, Christopher; Singh, Kern; Darden, Bruce; Daffner, Scott; Cheng, Ivan; Ghogawala, Zoher; Ludwig, Steven; Buchowski, Jacob; Brodke, Darrel; Wang, Jeffrey; Lehman, Ronald A; Hilibrand, Alan; Yoon, Tim; Grauer, Jonathan; Dailey, Andrew; Steinmetz, Michael; Harrop, James S

2018-06-01

Anterior cervical discectomy and fusion has a low but well-established profile of adverse events. The goal of this study was to gauge surgeon opinion regarding the frequency and acceptability of these events. A 2-page survey was distributed to attendees at the 2015 Cervical Spine Research Society (CSRS) meeting. Respondents were asked to categorize 18 anterior cervical discectomy and fusion-related adverse events as either: "common and acceptable," "uncommon and acceptable," "uncommon and sometimes acceptable," or "uncommon and unacceptable." Results were compiled to generate the relative frequency of these responses for each complication. Responses for each complication event were also compared between respondents based on practice location (US vs. non-US), primary specialty (orthopedics vs. neurosurgery) and years in practice. Of 150 surveys distributed, 115 responses were received (76.7% response rate), with the majority of respondents found to be US-based (71.3%) orthopedic surgeons (82.6%). Wrong level surgery, esophageal injury, retained drain, and spinal cord injury were considered by most to be unacceptable and uncommon complications. Dysphagia and adjacent segment disease occurred most often, but were deemed acceptable complications. Although surgeon experience and primary specialty had little impact on responses, practice location was found to significantly influence responses for 12 of 18 complications, with non-US surgeons found to categorize events more toward the uncommon and unacceptable end of the spectrum as compared with US surgeons. These results serve to aid communication and transparency within the field of spine surgery, and will help to inform future quality improvement and best practice initiatives.

Development of a Historical Hydrological online research and application platform for Switzerland - Historical Hydrological Atlas of Switzerland (HHAS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wetter, Oliver

2017-04-01

It is planned to develop and maintain a historical hydrological online platform for Switzerland, which shall be specially designed for the needs of research and federal, cantonal or private institutions being interested in hydrological risk assessment and protection measures. The aim is on the one hand to facilitate the access to raw data which generally is needed for further historical hydrological reconstruction and quantification, so that future research will be achieved in significantly shorter time. On the other hand, new historical hydrological research results shall be continuously included in order to establish this platform as a useful tool for the assessment of hydrological risk by including the long term experience of reconstructed pre-instrumental hydrological extreme events like floods and droughts. Meteorological parameters that may trigger extreme hydrological events, like monthly or seasonally resolved reconstructions of temperature and precipitation shall be made accessible in this platform as well. The ultimate goal will be to homogenise the reconstructed hydrological extreme events which usually appeared in the pre anthropogenic influence period under different climatological as well as different hydrological regimes and topographical conditions with the present day state. Long term changes of reconstructed small- to extreme flood seasonality, based on municipal accounting records, will be included in the platform as well. This helps - in combination with the before mentioned meteorological parameters - to provide an increased understanding of the major changes in the generally complex overall system that finally causes hydrological extreme events. The goal of my presentation at the Historical Climatology session is to give an overview about the applied historical climatological and historical hydrological methodologies that are applied on the historical raw data (evidence) to reconstruct pre instrumental hydrological events and meteorological and climatological parameter. I thus will present examples of index- as well as proxy based temperature and precipitation reconstructions, index- and water level based hydrological extreme event reconstructions (floods and droughts) as well examples about accounting records based reconstructions of long term changes of small- to extreme flood events.

Development of a flash flood warning system based on real-time radar data and process-based erosion modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schindewolf, Marcus; Kaiser, Andreas; Buchholtz, Arno; Schmidt, Jürgen

2017-04-01

Extreme rainfall events and resulting flash floods led to massive devastations in Germany during spring 2016. The study presented aims on the development of a early warning system, which allows the simulation and assessment of negative effects on infrastructure by radar-based heavy rainfall predictions, serving as input data for the process-based soil loss and deposition model EROSION 3D. Our approach enables a detailed identification of runoff and sediment fluxes in agricultural used landscapes. In a first step, documented historical events were analyzed concerning the accordance of measured radar rainfall and large scale erosion risk maps. A second step focused on a small scale erosion monitoring via UAV of source areas of heavy flooding events and a model reconstruction of the processes involved. In all examples damages were caused to local infrastructure. Both analyses are promising in order to detect runoff and sediment delivering areas even in a high temporal and spatial resolution. Results prove the important role of late-covering crops such as maize, sugar beet or potatoes in runoff generation. While e.g. winter wheat positively affects extensive runoff generation on undulating landscapes, massive soil loss and thus muddy flows are observed and depicted in model results. Future research aims on large scale model parameterization and application in real time, uncertainty estimation of precipitation forecast and interface developments.

Beyond Bounded Solutions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Enzer, Selwyn

1977-01-01

Futures research offers new tools for forecasting and for designing alternative intervention strategies. Interactive cross-impact modeling is presented as a useful method for identifying future events. (Author/MV)

Earthquakes induced by fluid injection: Implications for secure CO2 storage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verdon, J.; Kendall, J. M.

2013-12-01

It is well understood that the injection of fluids into the subsurface can trigger seismic activity. Recently, the US unconventional gas boom has lead to an increase in the volumes of produced water being disposed in geological formations and a concomitant increase in triggered seismic events. This issue is especially pertinent for geologic carbon sequestration, where the injection volumes necessary to store the CO2 emissions from a typical coal-fired power station far exceed the volumes known to have triggered seismic activity. Moreover, unlike water disposal operations, where there is no strong buoyancy drive to return injected fluids to the surface, CO2 sequestration requires a sealing caprock to prevent upward CO2 migration. Induced seismic events may create or reactivate faults and fracture networks, compromising the hydraulic integrity of the caprock. Therefore, induced seismic activity at future CCS sites is of doubly significant, given both the direct seismic hazard and the risk to secure CO2 storage. With this in mind, we re-examine case histories of seismic activity induced by waste water disposal into sedimentary formations with the intention of learning lessons that can be applied to future CCS sites. In particular, we examine the spatial and temporal distributions of events to determine whether there are any rules-of-thumb that might be usefully applied when appraising and monitoring operations. We find that in all cases, at least some seismicity occurs at the depth of the injection interval, but the majority (~80% of events) occur at least 500m below the injection depth. Less than 2% of events occur more than 500m above the shallowest injection interval. This observation must be considered encouraging from a CCS perspective, where seismicity in sealing caprocks will be of greatest concern. However, without a phenomenological explanation for the relative lack of seismicity above injection depths, it cannot be guaranteed that such observations would be repeated at CCS sites. We also examine the lateral distance between induced events and injection wells. The maximum distance between wells and events will define a minimum radius of influence, a distance over which geomechanical appraisal and fault characterization studies must be carried out at future CCS sites. We find that 62% of events occur within 5km, and that 99% of events occur within 19km of injection wells. These case examples highlight the importance of seismic monitoring at future CCS sites. Of the two large-scale CCS sites to deploy microseismic arrays, both have detected induced seismic events. During 6 years of monitoring at Weyburn, ~100 events with magnitudes between -3.0 and -1.0 have been detected, while at In Salah more than 1000 events, with magnitudes as large as 1.0, have been detected during 6 months of monitoring. Combined the case examples from water disposal operations, these operations demonstrate the need for dedicated local seismic monitoring networks to be installed at future CO2 injection sites.

Flood Risk in the Danube basin under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schröter, Kai; Wortmann, Michel; del Rocio Rivas Lopez, Maria; Liersch, Stefan; Viet Nguyen, Dung; Hardwick, Stephen; Hattermann, Fred

2017-04-01

The projected increase in temperature is expected to intensify the hydrological cycle, and thus more intense precipitation is likely to increase hydro-meteorological extremes and flood hazard. However to assess the future dynamics of hazard and impact induced by these changes it is necessary to consider extreme events and to take a spatially differentiated perspective. The Future Danube Model is a multi-hazard and risk model suite for the Danube region which has been developed in the OASIS project. The model comprises modules for estimating potential perils from heavy precipitation, heat-waves, floods, droughts, and damage risk considering hydro-climatic extremes under current and climate change conditions. Web-based open Geographic Information Systems (GIS) technology allows customers to graphically analyze and overlay perils and other spatial information such as population density or assets exposed. The Future Danube Model combines modules for weather generation, hydrological and hydrodynamic processes, and supports risk assessment and adaptation planning support. This contribution analyses changes in flood hazard in the Danube basin and in flood risk for the German part of the Danube basin. As climate change input, different regionalized climate ensemble runs of the newest IPCC generation are used, the so-called Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). They are delivered by the CORDEX initiative (Coordinated Downscaling Experiments). The CORDEX data sample is extended using the statistical weather generator (IMAGE) in order to also consider extreme events. Two time slices are considered: near future 2020-2049 and far future 2050-2079. This data provides the input for the hydrological, hydraulic and flood loss model chain. Results for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 indicate an increase in intensity and frequency of peak discharges and thus in flood hazard for many parts of the Danube basin.

Treading lightly on shifting ground: The direction and motivation of future geological research

USGS Publications Warehouse

Witt, A.C.

2011-01-01

The future of the geosciences and geological research will involve complex scientific challenges, primarily concerning global and regional environmental issues, in the next 20-30 years. It is quite reasonable to suspect, based on current political and socioeconomic events, that young geoscientists will be faced with and involved in helping to resolve some well defined problems: water and energy security, the effects of anthropogenic climate change, coastal sea level rise and development, and the mitigation of geohazards. It is how we choose to approach these challenges that will define our future. Interdisciplinary applied research, improved modeling and prediction augmented with faster and more sophisticated computing, and a greater role in creating and guiding public policy, will help us achieve our goals of a cleaner and safer Earth environment in the next 30 years. In the far future, even grander possibilities for eliminating the risk of certain geohazards and finding sustainable solutions to our energy needs can be envisioned. Looking deeper into the future, the possibilities for geoscience research push the limits of the imagination.

Variation of rain intensity and drop size distribution with General Weather Patterns (GWL)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghada, Wael; Buras, Allan; Lüpke, Marvin; Menzel, Annette

2017-04-01

Short-duration rainfall extremes may cause flash floods in certain catchments (e.g. cities or fast responding watersheds) and pose a great risk to affected communities. In order to predict their occurrence under future climate change scenarios, their link to atmospheric circulation patterns needs to be well understood. We used a comprehensive data set of meteorological data (temperature, rain gauge precipitation) and precipitation spectra measured by a disdrometer (OTT PARSIVEL) between October 2008 and June 2010 at Freising, southern Germany. For the 21 months of the study period, we integrated the disdrometer spectra over intervals of 10 minutes to correspond to the temporal resolution of the weather station data and discarded measurements with air temperatures below 0°C. Daily General Weather Patterns ("Großwetterlagen", GWL) were downloaded from the website of the German Meteorological Service. Out of the 29 GWL, 14 were included in the analysis for which we had at least 12 rain events during our study period. For the definition of a rain event, we tested different lengths of minimum inter-event times and chose 30 min as a good compromise between number and length of resulting events; rain events started when more than 0.001 mm/h (sensitivity of the disdrometer) were recorded. The length of the rain events ranged between 10 min and 28 h (median 130 min) with the maximum rain intensity recorded being 134 mm/h on 24-07-2009. Seasonal differences were identified for rain event average intensities and maximum intensities per event. The influence of GWL on rain properties such as rain intensity and drop size distribution per time step and per event was investigated based on the above mentioned rain event definition. Pairwise Wilcoxon-tests revealed that higher rain intensity and larger drops were associated with the GWL "Low over the British Isles" (TB), whereas low rain intensities and less drops per interval were associated with the GWL "High over Central Europe" (HM). "Trough over Central Europe" (TRM) was linked to smaller drops and "High Scandinavia-Iceland, Trough C. Europe" (HNFZ) had fewer drops per time step when compared to other GWL types. We also investigated the intra-event behavior regarding fluctuations in rain intensity, rain drop counts, and drop size distribution with time. When combined with predictions of circulation patterns, our analysis provides a detailed insight into the characteristics of rain events under different future climate scenarios, but definitively an extended measurement period and more measurement locations are needed for validation.

Reduced optimism and a heightened neural response to everyday worries are specific to generalized anxiety disorder, and not seen in social anxiety.

PubMed

Blair, K S; Otero, M; Teng, C; Geraci, M; Ernst, M; Blair, R J R; Pine, D S; Grillon, C

2017-07-01

Generalized anxiety disorder (GAD) and social anxiety disorder (SAD) are co-morbid and associated with similar neural disruptions during emotion regulation. In contrast, the lack of optimism examined here may be specific to GAD and could prove an important biomarker for that disorder. Unmedicated individuals with GAD (n = 18) and age-, intelligence quotient- and gender-matched SAD (n = 18) and healthy (n = 18) comparison individuals were scanned while contemplating likelihoods of high- and low-impact negative (e.g. heart attack; heartburn) or positive (e.g. winning lottery; hug) events occurring to themselves in the future. As expected, healthy subjects showed significant optimistic bias (OB); they considered themselves significantly less likely to experience future negative but significantly more likely to experience future positive events relative to others (p < 0.001). This was also seen in SAD, albeit at trend level for positive events (p < 0.001 and p < 0.10, respectively). However, GAD patients showed no OB for positive events (t 17 = 0.82, n.s.) and showed significantly reduced neural modulation relative to the two other groups of regions including the medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC) and caudate to these events (p < 0.001 for all). The GAD group further differed from the other groups by showing increased neural responses to low-impact events in regions including the rostral mPFC (p < 0.05 for both). The neural dysfunction identified here may represent a unique feature associated with reduced optimism and increased worry about everyday events in GAD. Consistent with this possibility, patients with SAD did not show such dysfunction. Future studies should consider if this dysfunction represents a biomarker for GAD.

Global mortality from storm surges is decreasing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bouwer, Laurens M.; Jonkman, Sebastiaan N.

2018-01-01

Changes in society’s vulnerability to natural hazards are important to understand, as they determine current and future risks, and the need to improve protection. Very large impacts including high numbers of fatalities occur due to single storm surge flood events. Here, we report on impacts of global coastal storm surge events since the year 1900, based on a compilation of events and data on loss of life. We find that over the past, more than eight thousand people are killed and 1.5 million people are affected annually by storm surges. The occurrence of very substantial loss of life (>10 000 persons) from single events has however decreased over time. Moreover, there is a consistent decrease in event mortality, measured by the fraction of exposed people that are killed, for all global regions, except South East Asia. Average mortality for storm surges is slightly higher than for river floods, but lower than for flash floods. We also find that for the same coastal surge water level, mortality has decreased over time. This indicates that risk reduction efforts have been successful, but need to be continued with projected climate change, increased rates of sea-level rise and urbanisation in coastal zones.

Drosophila Neuronal Injury Follows a Temporal Sequence of Cellular Events Leading to Degeneration at the Neuromuscular Junction

PubMed Central

Lincoln, Barron L.; Alabsi, Sahar H.; Frendo, Nicholas; Freund, Robert; Keller, Lani C.

2015-01-01

Neurodegenerative diseases affect millions of people worldwide, and as the global population ages, there is a critical need to improve our understanding of the molecular and cellular mechanisms that drive neurodegeneration. At the molecular level, neurodegeneration involves the activation of complex signaling pathways that drive the active destruction of neurons and their intracellular components. Here, we use an in vivo motor neuron injury assay to acutely induce neurodegeneration in order to follow the temporal order of events that occur following injury in Drosophila melanogaster. We find that sites of injury can be rapidly identified based on structural defects to the neuronal cytoskeleton that result in disrupted axonal transport. Additionally, the neuromuscular junction accumulates ubiquitinated proteins prior to the neurodegenerative events, occurring at 24 hours post injury. Our data provide insights into the early molecular events that occur during axonal and neuromuscular degeneration in a genetically tractable model organism. Importantly, the mechanisms that mediate neurodegeneration in flies are conserved in humans. Thus, these studies have implications for our understanding of the cellular and molecular events that occur in humans and will facilitate the identification of biomedically relevant targets for future treatments. PMID:26512206

Undergraduates Learn Evolution Through Teaching Kindergartners About Blind Mexican Cavefish

PubMed Central

Gross, Joshua B.; Gangidine, Andrew; Schafer, Rachel E.

2017-01-01

The development and implementation of a scientific outreach activity comes with a number of challenges. A successful outreach event must match the sophistication of content to the audience, be engaging, expand the knowledge base for participants, and be inclusive for a diverse audience. Ideally, a successful event will also convey the importance of scientific outreach for future scientists and citizens. In this paper, we present a simple, hands-on guide to a scientific outreach event targeted to kindergarten learners. This activity also pursued a second goal: the inclusion of undergraduate students in the development and delivery of the event. We provided a detailed set of four activities, focusing on the blind Mexican cavefish, which were enthusiastically received by kindergarten audiences. The engagement of undergraduate students in the development of this activity encouraged public outreach involvement and fostered new scientific and communication skills. The format of the outreach event we describe is flexible. We provide a set of guidelines and suggestions for adapting this approach to other biological topics. The activity and approach we describe enables the implementation of effective scientific outreach, using active learning approaches, which benefits both elementary school learners and undergraduate students. PMID:28936469

Examining the link between traumatic events and delinquency among juvenile delinquent girls: A longitudinal study.

PubMed

Marsiglio, Mary C; Chronister, Krista M; Gibson, Brandon; Leve, Leslie D

2014-12-01

Researchers have postulated associations between childhood trauma and delinquency, but few have examined the direction of these relationships prospectively and, specifically, with samples of delinquent girls. The purpose of this study was to examine the relationship between traumatic events and delinquency for girls in the juvenile justice system using a cross-lagged model. Developmental differences in associations as a function of high school entry status were also examined. The sample included 166 girls in the juvenile justice system who were mandated to community-based out-of-home care due to chronic delinquency. Overall, study results provide evidence that trauma and delinquency risk pathways vary according to high school entry status. Implications for future research and practice are discussed.

Examining the link between traumatic events and delinquency among juvenile delinquent girls: A longitudinal study

PubMed Central

Marsiglio, Mary C.; Chronister, Krista M.; Gibson, Brandon; Leve, Leslie D.

2014-01-01

Researchers have postulated associations between childhood trauma and delinquency, but few have examined the direction of these relationships prospectively and, specifically, with samples of delinquent girls. The purpose of this study was to examine the relationship between traumatic events and delinquency for girls in the juvenile justice system using a cross-lagged model. Developmental differences in associations as a function of high school entry status were also examined. The sample included 166 girls in the juvenile justice system who were mandated to community-based out-of-home care due to chronic delinquency. Overall, study results provide evidence that trauma and delinquency risk pathways vary according to high school entry status. Implications for future research and practice are discussed. PMID:25580179

Modeling regional coral reef responses to global warming and changes in ocean chemistry: Caribbean case study

USGS Publications Warehouse

Buddemeier, R.W.; Lane, D.R.; Martinich, J.A.

2011-01-01

Climatic change threatens the future of coral reefs in the Caribbean and the important ecosystem services they provide. We used a simulation model [Combo ("COral Mortality and Bleaching Output")] to estimate future coral cover in the part of the eastern Caribbean impacted by a massive coral bleaching event in 2005. Combo calculates impacts of future climate change on coral reefs by combining impacts from long-term changes in average sea surface temperature (SST) and ocean acidification with impacts from episodic high temperature mortality (bleaching) events. We used mortality and heat dose data from the 2005 bleaching event to select historic temperature datasets, to use as a baseline for running Combo under different future climate scenarios and sets of assumptions. Results suggest a bleak future for coral reefs in the eastern Caribbean. For three different emissions scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC; B1, A1B, and A1FI), coral cover on most Caribbean reefs is projected to drop below 5% by the year 2035, if future mortality rates are equivalent to some of those observed in the 2005 event (50%). For a scenario where corals gain an additional 1-1. 5??C of heat tolerance through a shift in the algae that live in the coral tissue, coral cover above 5% is prolonged until 2065. Additional impacts such as storms or anthropogenic damage could result in declines in coral cover even faster than those projected here. These results suggest the need to identify and preserve the locations that are likely to have a higher resiliency to bleaching to save as many remnant populations of corals as possible in the face of projected wide-spread coral loss. ?? 2011 The Author(s).

Music cognition as mental time travel.

PubMed

Bailes, Freya; Dean, Roger T; Pearce, Marcus T

2013-01-01

As we experience a temporal flux of events our expectations of future events change. Such expectations seem to be central to our perception of affect in music, but we have little understanding of how expectations change as recent information is integrated. When music establishes a pitch centre (tonality), we rapidly learn to anticipate its continuation. What happens when anticipations are challenged by new events? Here we show that providing a melodic challenge to an established tonality leads to progressive changes in the impact of the features of the stimulus on listeners' expectations. The results demonstrate that retrospective analysis of recent events can establish new patterns of expectation that converge towards probabilistic interpretations of the temporal stream. These studies point to wider applications of understanding the impact of information flow on future prediction and its behavioural utility.

Enriching Great Britain's National Landslide Database by searching newspaper archives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taylor, Faith E.; Malamud, Bruce D.; Freeborough, Katy; Demeritt, David

2015-11-01

Our understanding of where landslide hazard and impact will be greatest is largely based on our knowledge of past events. Here, we present a method to supplement existing records of landslides in Great Britain by searching an electronic archive of regional newspapers. In Great Britain, the British Geological Survey (BGS) is responsible for updating and maintaining records of landslide events and their impacts in the National Landslide Database (NLD). The NLD contains records of more than 16,500 landslide events in Great Britain. Data sources for the NLD include field surveys, academic articles, grey literature, news, public reports and, since 2012, social media. We aim to supplement the richness of the NLD by (i) identifying additional landslide events, (ii) acting as an additional source of confirmation of events existing in the NLD and (iii) adding more detail to existing database entries. This is done by systematically searching the Nexis UK digital archive of 568 regional newspapers published in the UK. In this paper, we construct a robust Boolean search criterion by experimenting with landslide terminology for four training periods. We then apply this search to all articles published in 2006 and 2012. This resulted in the addition of 111 records of landslide events to the NLD over the 2 years investigated (2006 and 2012). We also find that we were able to obtain information about landslide impact for 60-90% of landslide events identified from newspaper articles. Spatial and temporal patterns of additional landslides identified from newspaper articles are broadly in line with those existing in the NLD, confirming that the NLD is a representative sample of landsliding in Great Britain. This method could now be applied to more time periods and/or other hazards to add richness to databases and thus improve our ability to forecast future events based on records of past events.

Big Data and the Global Public Health Intelligence Network (GPHIN)

PubMed Central

Dion, M; AbdelMalik, P; Mawudeku, A

2015-01-01

Background Globalization and the potential for rapid spread of emerging infectious diseases have heightened the need for ongoing surveillance and early detection. The Global Public Health Intelligence Network (GPHIN) was established to increase situational awareness and capacity for the early detection of emerging public health events. Objective To describe how the GPHIN has used Big Data as an effective early detection technique for infectious disease outbreaks worldwide and to identify potential future directions for the GPHIN. Findings Every day the GPHIN analyzes over more than 20,000 online news reports (over 30,000 sources) in nine languages worldwide. A web-based program aggregates data based on an algorithm that provides potential signals of emerging public health events which are then reviewed by a multilingual, multidisciplinary team. An alert is sent out if a potential risk is identified. This process proved useful during the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) outbreak and was adopted shortly after by a number of countries to meet new International Health Regulations that require each country to have the capacity for early detection and reporting. The GPHIN identified the early SARS outbreak in China, was credited with the first alert on MERS-CoV and has played a significant role in the monitoring of the Ebola outbreak in West Africa. Future developments are being considered to advance the GPHIN’s capacity in light of other Big Data sources such as social media and its analytical capacity in terms of algorithm development. Conclusion The GPHIN’s early adoption of Big Data has increased global capacity to detect international infectious disease outbreaks and other public health events. Integration of additional Big Data sources and advances in analytical capacity could further strengthen the GPHIN’s capability for timely detection and early warning. PMID:29769954

Monitoring Drought Conditions in the Navajo Nation Using NASA Earth Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ly, Vickie; Gao, Michael; Cary, Cheryl; Turnbull-Appell, Sophie; Surunis, Anton

2016-01-01

The Navajo Nation, a 65,700 sq km Native American territory located in the southwestern United States, has been increasingly impacted by severe drought events and changes in climate. These events are coupled with a lack of domestic water infrastructure and economic resources, leaving approximately one-third of the population without access to potable water in their homes. Current methods of monitoring drought are dependent on state-based monthly Standardized Precipitation Index value maps calculated by the Western Regional Climate Center. However, these maps do not provide the spatial resolution needed to illustrate differences in drought severity across the vast Nation. To better understand and monitor drought events and drought regime changes in the Navajo Nation, this project created a geodatabase of historical climate information specific to the area, and a decision support tool to calculate average Standardized Precipitation Index values for user-specified areas. The tool and geodatabase use Tropical Rainfall Monitoring Mission (TRMM) and Global Precipitation Monitor (GPM) observed precipitation data and Parameter-elevation Relationships on Independent Slopes Model modeled historical precipitation data, as well as NASA's modeled Land Data Assimilation Systems deep soil moisture, evaporation, and transpiration data products. The geodatabase and decision support tool will allow resource managers in the Navajo Nation to utilize current and future NASA Earth observation data for increased decision-making capacity regarding future climate change impact on water resources.

Hypothetical scenario exercises to improve planning and readiness for drinking water quality management during extreme weather events.

PubMed

Deere, Daniel; Leusch, Frederic D L; Humpage, Andrew; Cunliffe, David; Khan, Stuart J

2017-03-15

Two hypothetical scenario exercises were designed and conducted to reflect the increasingly extreme weather-related challenges faced by water utilities as the global climate changes. The first event was based on an extreme flood scenario. The second scenario involved a combination of weather events, including a wild forest fire ('bushfire') followed by runoff due to significant rainfall. For each scenario, a panel of diverse personnel from water utilities and relevant agencies (e.g. health departments) formed a hypothetical water utility and associated regulatory body to manage water quality following the simulated extreme weather event. A larger audience participated by asking questions and contributing key insights. Participants were confronted with unanticipated developments as the simulated scenarios unfolded, introduced by a facilitator. Participants were presented with information that may have challenged their conventional experiences regarding operational procedures in order to identify limitations in current procedures, assumptions, and readily available information. The process worked toward the identification of a list of specific key lessons for each event. At the conclusion of each simulation a facilitated discussion was used to establish key lessons of value to water utilities in preparing them for similar future extreme events. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

OGLE-2003-BLG-262: Finite-Source Effects from a Point-Mass Lens

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoo, Jaiyul; DePoy, D. L.; Gal-Yam, A.; Gaudi, B. S.; Gould, A.; Han, C.; Lipkin, Y.; Maoz, D.; Ofek, E. O.; Park, B.-G.; Pogge, R. W.; Mu-Fun Collaboration; Udalski, A.; Soszyński, I.; Wyrzykowski, Ł.; Kubiak, M.; Szymański, M.; Pietrzyński, G.; Szewczyk, O.; Żebruń, K.; OGLE Collaboration

2004-03-01

We analyze OGLE-2003-BLG-262, a relatively short (tE=12.5+/-0.1 day) microlensing event generated by a point-mass lens transiting the face of a K giant source in the Galactic bulge. We use the resulting finite-source effects to measure the angular Einstein radius, θE=195+/-17 μas, and so constrain the lens mass to the FWHM interval 0.08

Attention and working memory: two basic mechanisms for constructing temporal experiences

PubMed Central

Marchetti, Giorgio

2014-01-01

Various kinds of observations show that the ability of human beings to both consciously relive past events – episodic memory – and conceive future events, entails an active process of construction. This construction process also underpins many other important aspects of conscious human life, such as perceptions, language, and conscious thinking. This article provides an explanation of what makes the constructive process possible and how it works. The process mainly relies on attentional activity, which has a discrete and periodic nature, and working memory, which allows for the combination of discrete attentional operations. An explanation is also provided of how past and future events are constructed. PMID:25177305

A Goal Bias in Action: The Boundaries Adults Perceive in Events Align with Sites of Actor Intent

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Levine, Dani; Hirsh-Pasek, Kathy; Pace, Amy; Michnick Golinkoff, Roberta

2017-01-01

We live in a dynamic world comprised of continuous events. Remembering our past and predicting future events, however, requires that we segment these ongoing streams of information in a consistent manner. How is this segmentation achieved? This research examines whether the boundaries adults perceive in events, such as the Olympic figure skating…

Comparison of Diachronic Thinking and Event Ordering in 5- to 10-Year-Old Children

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Moore, Brandy D.; Brooks, Patricia J.; Rabin, Laura A.

2014-01-01

Two main theoretical constructs seek to describe the elaborated sense of time that may be a uniquely human attribute: diachronic thinking (the ability to think about the past and use that information to predict future events) and event ordering (the ability to sequence events in temporal order). Researchers utilize various tasks to measure the…

Concern for Others Leads to Vicarious Optimism

PubMed Central

Kappes, Andreas; Faber, Nadira S.; Kahane, Guy; Savulescu, Julian; Crockett, Molly J.

2018-01-01

An optimistic learning bias leads people to update their beliefs in response to better-than-expected good news but neglect worse-than-expected bad news. Because evidence suggests that this bias arises from self-concern, we hypothesized that a similar bias may affect beliefs about other people’s futures, to the extent that people care about others. Here, we demonstrated the phenomenon of vicarious optimism and showed that it arises from concern for others. Participants predicted the likelihood of unpleasant future events that could happen to either themselves or others. In addition to showing an optimistic learning bias for events affecting themselves, people showed vicarious optimism when learning about events affecting friends and strangers. Vicarious optimism for strangers correlated with generosity toward strangers, and experimentally increasing concern for strangers amplified vicarious optimism for them. These findings suggest that concern for others can bias beliefs about their future welfare and that optimism in learning is not restricted to oneself. PMID:29381448

Concern for Others Leads to Vicarious Optimism.

PubMed

Kappes, Andreas; Faber, Nadira S; Kahane, Guy; Savulescu, Julian; Crockett, Molly J

2018-03-01

An optimistic learning bias leads people to update their beliefs in response to better-than-expected good news but neglect worse-than-expected bad news. Because evidence suggests that this bias arises from self-concern, we hypothesized that a similar bias may affect beliefs about other people's futures, to the extent that people care about others. Here, we demonstrated the phenomenon of vicarious optimism and showed that it arises from concern for others. Participants predicted the likelihood of unpleasant future events that could happen to either themselves or others. In addition to showing an optimistic learning bias for events affecting themselves, people showed vicarious optimism when learning about events affecting friends and strangers. Vicarious optimism for strangers correlated with generosity toward strangers, and experimentally increasing concern for strangers amplified vicarious optimism for them. These findings suggest that concern for others can bias beliefs about their future welfare and that optimism in learning is not restricted to oneself.

The rogue nature of hiatuses in a global warming climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sévellec, F.; Sinha, B.; Skliris, N.

2016-08-01

The nature of rogue events is their unlikelihood and the recent unpredicted decade-long slowdown in surface warming, the so-called hiatus, may be such an event. However, given decadal variability in climate, global surface temperatures were never expected to increase monotonically with increasing radiative forcing. Here surface air temperature from 20 climate models is analyzed to estimate the historical and future likelihood of hiatuses and "surges" (faster than expected warming), showing that the global hiatus of the early 21st century was extremely unlikely. A novel analysis of future climate scenarios suggests that hiatuses will almost vanish and surges will strongly intensify by 2100 under a "business as usual" scenario. For "CO2 stabilisation" scenarios, hiatus, and surge characteristics revert to typical 1940s values. These results suggest to study the hiatus of the early 21st century and future reoccurrences as rogue events, at the limit of the variability of current climate modelling capability.

Recent Advancements in the Global Understanding of what Drives Heatwaves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S.

2016-12-01

Heatwaves, defined as prolonged periods of extreme heat, are disastrous events that impact human, natural and industrial systems all over the world. In recent years, the global research effort has greatly increased our understanding on quantifying heatwaves and how they have changed, what drives them, and their future projections. This talk will summarize critical developments made in this field, with particular emphasis on the physical driving mechanisms and the role of internal climate variability. Case studies from various global regions will illustrate both similarities and differences in the physical set-ups of these fascinating events. Future projections of heatwaves and the human contribution behind specific observed heatwave events will be briefly discussed. The talk will conclude by highlighting research priorities such that future investigation is targeted, and closes existing knowledge gaps on what drives heatwaves as effectively as possible. Such developments will ultimately aid in the predictability of heatwaves, thus aiding in reducing their devastating impacts.

Anxiety-Linked Expectancy Bias across the Adult Lifespan

PubMed Central

Steinman, Shari A.; Smyth, Frederick L.; Bucks, Romola S.; MacLeod, Colin; Teachman, Bethany A.

2012-01-01

Anxiety is characterized by a negative expectancy bias, such that anxious individuals report negatively distorted expectations about the future. Contrary to anxiety, aging is characterized by a positivity effect, such that aging is associated with a tendency to attend to and remember positive information, relative to negative information. The current study integrates these literatures to examine anxiety- and age-linked biases when thinking about the future. Participants (N=1109) completed a procedure that involved reading valenced scenarios (positive, negative, or ambiguous) and then rating the likelihood of future valenced events occurring. Results suggest that aging and anxiety have independent and opposing effects. Heightened anxiety was associated with a reduced expectancy for positive events, regardless of the scenarios’ current emotional valence, whereas increased age was associated with an inflated expectancy for positive events, which was strongest when individuals were processing socially-relevant or negative scenarios. PMID:22861128

Eying the future: Eye movement in past and future thinking.

PubMed

El Haj, Mohamad; Lenoble, Quentin

2017-06-07

We investigated eye movement during past and future thinking. Participants were invited to retrieve past events and to imagine future events while their scan path was recorded by an eye-tracker. Past thinking triggered more fixation (p < .05), and saccade counts (p < .05) than future thinking. Past and future thinking triggered a similar duration of fixations and saccades, as well as a similar amplitude of saccades. Interestingly, participants rated past thinking as more vivid than future thinking (p < .01). Therefore, the vividness of past thinking seems to be accompanied by an increased number of fixations and saccades. Fixations and saccades in past thinking can be interpreted as an attempt by the visual system to find (through saccades) and activate (through fixations) stored memory representations. The same interpretation can be applied to future thinking as this ability requires activation of past experiences. However, future thinking triggers fewer fixations and saccades than past thinking: this may be due to its decreased demand on visual imagery, but could also be related to a potentially deleterious effect of eye movements on spatial imagery required for future thinking. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Simulating Future Changes in Spatio-temporal Precipitation by Identifying and Characterizing Individual Rainstorm Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, W.; Stein, M.; Wang, J.; Kotamarthi, V. R.; Moyer, E. J.

2015-12-01

A growing body of literature suggests that human-induced climate change may cause significant changes in precipitation patterns, which could in turn influence future flood levels and frequencies and water supply and management practices. Although climate models produce full three-dimensional simulations of precipitation, analyses of model precipitation have focused either on time-averaged distributions or on individual timeseries with no spatial information. We describe here a new approach based on identifying and characterizing individual rainstorms in either data or model output. Our approach enables us to readily characterize important spatio-temporal aspects of rainstorms including initiation location, intensity (mean and patterns), spatial extent, duration, and trajectory. We apply this technique to high-resolution precipitation over the continental U.S. both from radar-based observations (NCEP Stage IV QPE product, 1-hourly, 4 km spatial resolution) and from model runs with dynamical downscaling (WRF regional climate model, 3-hourly, 12 km spatial resolution). In the model studies we investigate the changes in storm characteristics under a business-as-usual warming scenario to 2100 (RCP 8.5). We find that in these model runs, rainstorm intensity increases as expected with rising temperatures (approximately 7%/K, following increased atmospheric moisture content), while total precipitation increases by a lesser amount (3%/K), consistent with other studies. We identify for the first time the necessary compensating mechanism: in these model runs, individual precipitation events become smaller. Other aspects are approximately unchanged in the warmer climate. Because these spatio-temporal changes in rainfall patterns would impact regional hydrology, it is important that they be accurately incorporated into any impacts assessment. For this purpose we have developed a methodology for producing scenarios of future precipitation that combine observational data and model-projected changes. We statistically describe the future changes in rainstorm characteristics suggested by the WRF model and apply those changes to observational data. The resulting high spatial and temporal resolution scenarios have immediate applications for impacts assessment and adaptation studies.

Mass gathering medicine: a predictive model for patient presentation and transport rates.

PubMed

Arbon, P; Bridgewater, F H; Smith, C

2001-01-01

This paper reports on research into the influence of environmental factors (including crowd size, temperature, humidity, and venue type) on the number of patients and the patient problems presenting to first-aid services at large, public events in Australia. Regression models were developed to predict rates of patient presentation and of transportation-to-a-hospital for future mass gatherings. To develop a data set and predictive model that can be applied across venues and types of mass gathering events that is not venue or event specific. Data collected will allow informed event planning for future mass gatherings for which health care services are required. Mass gatherings were defined as public events attended by in excess of 25,000 people. Over a period of 12 months, 201 mass gatherings attended by a combined audience in excess of 12 million people were surveyed throughout Australia. The survey was undertaken by St. John Ambulance Australia personnel. The researchers collected data on the incidence and type of patients presenting for treatment and on the environmental factors that may influence these presentations. A standard reporting format and definition of event geography was employed to overcome the event-specific nature of many previous surveys. There are 11,956 patients in the sample. The patient presentation rate across all event types was 0.992/1,000 attendees, and the transportation-to-hospital rate was 0.027/1,000 persons in attendance. The rates of patient presentations declined slightly as crowd sizes increased. The weather (particularly the relative humidity) was related positively to an increase in the rates of presentations. Other factors that influenced the number and type of patients presenting were the mobility of the crowd, the availability of alcohol, the event being enclosed by a boundary, and the number of patient-care personnel on duty. Three regression models were developed to predict presentation rates at future events. Several features of the event environment influence patient presentation rates, and that the prediction of patient load at these events is complex and multifactorial. The use of regression modeling and close attention to existing historical data for an event can improve planning and the provision of health care services at mass gatherings.

Volcano and earthquake hazards in the Crater Lake region, Oregon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bacon, Charles R.; Mastin, Larry G.; Scott, Kevin M.; Nathenson, Manuel

1997-01-01

Crater Lake lies in a basin, or caldera, formed by collapse of the Cascade volcano known as Mount Mazama during a violent, climactic eruption about 7,700 years ago. This event dramatically changed the character of the volcano so that many potential types of future events have no precedent there. This potentially active volcanic center is contained within Crater Lake National Park, visited by 500,000 people per year, and is adjacent to the main transportation corridor east of the Cascade Range. Because a lake is now present within the most likely site of future volcanic activity, many of the hazards at Crater Lake are different from those at most other Cascade volcanoes. Also significant are many faults near Crater Lake that clearly have been active in the recent past. These faults, and historic seismicity, indicate that damaging earthquakes can occur there in the future. This report describes the various types of volcano and earthquake hazards in the Crater Lake area, estimates of the likelihood of future events, recommendations for mitigation, and a map of hazard zones. The main conclusions are summarized below.

Space engine safety system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Maul, William A.; Meyer, Claudia M.

1991-01-01

A rocket engine safety system was designed to initiate control procedures to minimize damage to the engine or vehicle or test stand in the event of an engine failure. The features and the implementation issues associated with rocket engine safety systems are discussed, as well as the specific concerns of safety systems applied to a space-based engine and long duration space missions. Examples of safety system features and architectures are given, based on recent safety monitoring investigations conducted for the Space Shuttle Main Engine and for future liquid rocket engines. Also, the general design and implementation process for rocket engine safety systems is presented.

Projection-based motion estimation for cardiac functional analysis with high temporal resolution: a proof-of-concept study with digital phantom experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suzuki, Yuki; Fung, George S. K.; Shen, Zeyang; Otake, Yoshito; Lee, Okkyun; Ciuffo, Luisa; Ashikaga, Hiroshi; Sato, Yoshinobu; Taguchi, Katsuyuki

2017-03-01

Cardiac motion (or functional) analysis has shown promise not only for non-invasive diagnosis of cardiovascular diseases but also for prediction of cardiac future events. Current imaging modalities has limitations that could degrade the accuracy of the analysis indices. In this paper, we present a projection-based motion estimation method for x-ray CT that estimates cardiac motion with high spatio-temporal resolution using projection data and a reference 3D volume image. The experiment using a synthesized digital phantom showed promising results for motion analysis.

A new method for detection of distant supernova neutrino bursts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cline, D.; Fenyves, E.; Foshe, T.; Fuller, G.; Meyer, B.; Wilson, J.

1990-03-01

The feasibility of astrophysical neutrino detectors is studied, which is based on the detection of neutrons produced in neutrino-nucleus inelastic scattering events. Collective nuclear effects greatly enhancing the relevant interaction cross sections over those of single particle interactions are discussed. These effects can help to reduce the mass required for neutrino detectors. An example of a simple detector based on CaCO3 neutrino targets and BF3 neutron counters is presented. Neutron background limitations are discussed and the possibility of forming a coincidence between neutrino detectors and future gravity wave detectors is also considered.

Antiplatelet treatment of cardiovascular disease: a translational research perspective.

PubMed

Gurbel, Paul A; Antonino, Mark J; Tantry, Udaya S

2008-05-01

Platelet mediated thrombosis is the primary cause of ischemic event occurrence in patients with cardiovascular disease. The P2Y12 receptor plays a central role in thrombus generation and is therefore a major target for pharmacologic therapy. Although various clinical trials have demonstrated the efficacy of dual antiplatelet therapy with aspirin and clopidogrel, recurrent ischemic events occur in approximately 10% of patients with acute coronary artery syndromes. Recent translational research studies have explored the various limitations of dual antiplatelet therapy including wide response variability and resistance. The association of ischemic event occurrence with high on-treatment platelet reactivity to adenosine diphosphate has been reported in recent small studies suggesting that the latter may be a quantifiable and modifiable risk factor. Recent studies have identified a potential therapeutic target for P2Y12 inhibitors that may influence the future development of personalized antiplatelet treatment strategies aimed at the reduction of ischemic event occurrence in high risk patients. Finally, based on the current evidence platelet reactivity may become a standard of care risk factor measured in all patients with cardiovascular disease.

Hepatic FDG uptake is associated with future cardiovascular events in asymptomatic individuals with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease.

PubMed

Moon, Seung Hwan; Hong, Sun-Pyo; Cho, Young Seok; Noh, Tae Soo; Choi, Joon Young; Kim, Byung-Tae; Lee, Kyung-Han

2017-06-01

Hepatic F-18 fluoro-2-deoxyglucose (FDG) uptake is associated with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) which is an independent risk factor for cardiovascular disease. However, the value of hepatic FDG uptake for predicting future cardiovascular events has not been explored. Study participants were 815 consecutive asymptomatic participants who underwent a health screening program that included FDG positron emission tomography/computed tomography (PET/CT), abdominal ultrasonography, and carotid intima-media thickness (CIMT) measurements (age 51.8 ± 6.0 year; males 93.9%). We measured hepatic FDG uptake and assessed the prognostic significance of this parameter with other cardiovascular risk factors including Framingham risk score and CIMT. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards analyses including all study participants revealed that NAFLD with high-hepatic FDG uptake was the only independent predictor for future cardiovascular events [hazard ratio (HR) 4.23; 95% CI 1.05-17.04; P = .043). Subgroup analysis conducted in the NAFLD group showed that high-hepatic FDG uptake was a significant independent predictor of cardiovascular events (HR 9.29; 95% CI 1.05-81.04; P = .045). This exploratory study suggests that high-hepatic FDG uptake may be a useful prognostic factor for cardiovascular events in individuals with NAFLD.

A Rapid History of Futures Thought: From Montgolfier to the Manhattan Project.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Clarke, I. F.

1984-01-01

The literature of future studies has grown up rapidly in times of technological innovation and social change. Particular events and publications that have contributed most to the development of the futures movement around the world are highlighted. (Author/RM)

Symbiont diversity may help coral reefs survive moderate climate change.

PubMed

Baskett, Marissa L; Gaines, Steven D; Nisbet, Roger M

2009-01-01

Given climate change, thermal stress-related mass coral-bleaching events present one of the greatest anthropogenic threats to coral reefs. While corals and their symbiotic algae may respond to future temperatures through genetic adaptation and shifts in community compositions, the climate may change too rapidly for coral response. To test this potential for response, here we develop a model of coral and symbiont ecological dynamics and symbiont evolutionary dynamics. Model results without variation in symbiont thermal tolerance predict coral reef collapse within decades under multiple future climate scenarios, consistent with previous threshold-based predictions. However, model results with genetic or community-level variation in symbiont thermal tolerance can predict coral reef persistence into the next century, provided low enough greenhouse gas emissions occur. Therefore, the level of greenhouse gas emissions will have a significant effect on the future of coral reefs, and accounting for biodiversity and biological dynamics is vital to estimating the size of this effect.

Ultrastructural and functional fate of recycled vesicles in hippocampal synapses

PubMed Central

Rey, Stephanie A.; Smith, Catherine A.; Fowler, Milena W.; Crawford, Freya; Burden, Jemima J.; Staras, Kevin

2015-01-01

Efficient recycling of synaptic vesicles is thought to be critical for sustained information transfer at central terminals. However, the specific contribution that retrieved vesicles make to future transmission events remains unclear. Here we exploit fluorescence and time-stamped electron microscopy to track the functional and positional fate of vesicles endocytosed after readily releasable pool (RRP) stimulation in rat hippocampal synapses. We show that most vesicles are recovered near the active zone but subsequently take up random positions in the cluster, without preferential bias for future use. These vesicles non-selectively queue, advancing towards the release site with further stimulation in an actin-dependent manner. Nonetheless, the small subset of vesicles retrieved recently in the stimulus train persist nearer the active zone and exhibit more privileged use in the next RRP. Our findings reveal heterogeneity in vesicle fate based on nanoscale position and timing rules, providing new insights into the origins of future pool constitution. PMID:26292808

How the Reinsurance Industry views the current and future risk landscape

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castaldi, A.

2012-12-01

The last decade has witnessed some of the most devastating and expensive natural disasters within the last century. Regardless of where the event occurred and what the hazard might have been, the global insurance and reinsurance industry were active participants in evaluating the events' characteristics as well as providing the financial means for rebuilding the communities affected by these events. The concept of risk transfer from one to many (spreading the risk) is at the very core of the insurers and reinsurers' business. Reinsurers' focus most of their attention on the extreme events including those caused by natural disasters. As such the reinsurance industry must be expert in understanding and quantifying the potential economic and social impact of extreme natural hazard events throughout the world whether they be in the present or possible future. To understand the global risk the reinsurance industry has invested a substantial amount of time and resources into analyzing natural hazard events on a global scale. This requires a firm understanding of the hazard (frequency and severity) and what exposure lies in harm's way (vulnerability). Through the development and use of natural hazard models, claims loss reviews, and research and development the reinsurance industry has an excellent view of the global risks. In this session we will describe how the reinsurance industry models the natural hazard risk and how we view natural hazards in the modern world and our concerns for the future. We will discuss some of the reasons why these events have become increasingly more expensive as well as discussing how we can help reduce our economic susceptibility to these extreme and unpleasant events.

Using Climate Science to Inform Local Planning: Challenges and Successes from the Field

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hayhoe, K.

2014-12-01

Much of our society, including our agriculture, our dependence on natural resources, and our infrastructure, is built on the assumption that individual weather events and average conditions may vary from year to year, but over the long term the climate of a given region can be predicted based on past climate "normals". This assumption is no longer valid; today, human-induced climate change is altering average conditions as well as the risk of many types of weather extremes. Observed trends and projected future changes in mean climate and in the frequency and severity of temperature extremes, heat waves, heavy precipitation events, coastal flooding, and storms are clearly documented in the Third U.S. National Climate Assessment, as well as by a host of other regional impact assessments. While future projections are inherently uncertain, these assessments make one fact clear: future planning for any sector or region affected by climate change that fails to take into account long-term trends will end up with the wrong answer. This concept of non-stationarity, that future climate will differ from that experienced in the past, challenges regional planners, water managers, city managers and engineers to incorporate future climate change into present-day planning. From the perspective of scientists, translating climate projections into information that can be used by stakeholders and decision-makers presents a challenge of equal magnitude. Here, I draw on my experience working with the agriculture, ecosystem, energy, health, infrastructure, insurance, and water sectors to propose a framework for, and highlight some of the main challenges inherent to, incorporating climate information into practical, on-the-ground planning at the local to regional scale. This approach, which we have developed through working with a range of cities, states, and regions including Austin, Cambridge, California, Chicago, Delaware, the Northeast, and most recently Washington DC, is based on identifying known vulnerabilities within the systems of interest, and developing appropriate information compatible with existing planning mechanisms to ensure the relevance and utility of the climate information for increasing resilience and reducing vulnerability to climate risks.

Boston Future Forum

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-09-17

NASA Deputy Administrator Shana Dale delivers a keynote address during the NASA Future Forum event at the Museum of Science in Boston, MA, Thursday, September 18, 2008. Photo Credit: (NASA/Bill Ingalls)

Damage caused by hydrological extremes in a region of southern Italy: comparison between the period 2002-2012 and the past century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petrucci, Olga; Pasqua, A. Aurora

2013-04-01

The concept of extreme hydrological event should be seen in a relative way, depending on the region for which it is defined, the parameters and the type of data utilized to assess it, and mainly taking into account the length of the period basing on which it is assessed. Measured data concerning rainfall and river flow, which allow statistical analysis of numerical values and assessment of events frequency, can be available for different periods, according to both the study area and the country; nevertheless, the length of the measurement series rarely exceeds 100 years. Thus, the extrapolation to the future of events trend, frequency, seasonality are based on a relatively short and recent period and even the "magnitude" and the classification of "extreme events" can be biased by the length of the observation period. Thus these characteristics may substantially change if their assessment is based on a wider temporal window. Especially in un-gauged basins and concerning severest events, historical data cannot provide systematically measured parameters but they can supply proxy data which allow enlarging the observation period, permitting a better weighing of both recent and old events. The present research is based on the use of a wide historical database concerning phenomena as floods, flash floods and landslides triggered by extreme meteorological events in Calabria (Southern Italy) since 19th century. This database is made of approximately 11,000 records and it includes data coming from different sources as newspapers, archives of national and regional agencies, scientific and technical reports, on-site surveys reports and information collected by interviewing both people involved and local administrators. The recent uploading of data concerning the effects caused in Calabria by these phenomena during the decade 2002-2012 allowed us to analyse a long and updated historical series of events. The aim is to compare -both in terms triggering rainfall and their effects- events magnitude and frequency characterising the last decade to those observed during past decades, even taking into account the lower data availability characterising older epochs. Using the huge amount of available data, an attempt to individuate the typical damage scenario for the study region is carried out, trying to highlight the trend of modifications affecting these events thorough the study period, in an evolutive perspective that can be useful to forecast tendencies of the hydrological risk on a regional basis.

Time-to-event methodology improved statistical evaluation in register-based health services research.

PubMed

Bluhmki, Tobias; Bramlage, Peter; Volk, Michael; Kaltheuner, Matthias; Danne, Thomas; Rathmann, Wolfgang; Beyersmann, Jan

2017-02-01

Complex longitudinal sampling and the observational structure of patient registers in health services research are associated with methodological challenges regarding data management and statistical evaluation. We exemplify common pitfalls and want to stimulate discussions on the design, development, and deployment of future longitudinal patient registers and register-based studies. For illustrative purposes, we use data from the prospective, observational, German DIabetes Versorgungs-Evaluation register. One aim was to explore predictors for the initiation of a basal insulin supported therapy in patients with type 2 diabetes initially prescribed to glucose-lowering drugs alone. Major challenges are missing mortality information, time-dependent outcomes, delayed study entries, different follow-up times, and competing events. We show that time-to-event methodology is a valuable tool for improved statistical evaluation of register data and should be preferred to simple case-control approaches. Patient registers provide rich data sources for health services research. Analyses are accompanied with the trade-off between data availability, clinical plausibility, and statistical feasibility. Cox' proportional hazards model allows for the evaluation of the outcome-specific hazards, but prediction of outcome probabilities is compromised by missing mortality information. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Event-related functional MRI: Past, present, and future

PubMed Central

Rosen, Bruce R.; Buckner, Randy L.; Dale, Anders M.

1998-01-01

The past two decades have seen an enormous growth in the field of human brain mapping. Investigators have extensively exploited techniques such as positron emission tomography and MRI to map patterns of brain activity based on changes in cerebral hemodynamics. However, until recently, most studies have investigated equilibrium changes in blood flow measured over time periods upward of 1 min. The advent of high-speed MRI methods, capable of imaging the entire brain with a temporal resolution of a few seconds, allows for brain mapping based on more transient aspects of the hemodynamic response. Today it is now possible to map changes in cerebrovascular parameters essentially in real time, conferring the ability to observe changes in brain state that occur over time periods of seconds. Furthermore, because robust hemodynamic alterations are detectable after neuronal stimuli lasting only a few tens of milliseconds, a new class of task paradigms designed to measure regional responses to single sensory or cognitive events can now be studied. Such “event related” functional MRI should provide for fundamentally new ways to interrogate brain function, and allow for the direct comparison and ultimately integration of data acquired by using more traditional behavioral and electrophysiological methods. PMID:9448240

Stepped leaders observed in ground operations of ADELE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, D. M.; Kelley, N.; Lowell, A.; Martinez-McKinney, F.; Dwyer, J. R.; Splitt, M. E.; Lazarus, S. M.; Cramer, E. S.; Levine, S.; Cummer, S. A.; Lu, G.; Shao, X.; Ho, C.; Eastvedt, E. M.; Trueblood, J.; Edens, H. E.; Hunyady, S. J.; Winn, W. P.; Rassoul, H. K.

2010-12-01

While the Airborne Detector for Energetic Lightning Emissions (ADELE) was designed primarily to study high-energy radiation associated with thunderstorms at aircraft altitude, it can also be used as a mobile ground-based instrument when mounted in a van. ADELE contains scintillation detectors optimized for faint and bright events and a flat-plate antenna measuring dE/dt. In July and August 2010, ADELE was brought to Langmuir Laboratory in New Mexico as a stationary detector and to the Florida peninsula (based at the Florida Institute of Technology in Melbourne) for rapid-response (storm-chasing) operations. In ten days of chasing, stepped-leader x-ray emission was observed from at least four close CG flashes, a much higher rate of success than can be achieved from a stationary detector or array. We will present these four events as well as the results of a study of candidate events of lesser statistical significance. We will also discuss the optimization of lightning-chasing strategies, science goals for future ground campaigns, and what additional instrumentation would be most scientifically beneficial. In the latter category, a proximity sensor (comparing flash and thunder arrival times) and a field mill are particularly important.

Therapeutics incorporating blood constituents.

PubMed

Charoenphol, Phapanin; Oswalt, Katie; Bishop, Corey J

2018-04-05

Blood deficiency and dysfunctionality can result in adverse events, which can primarily be treated by transfusion of blood or the re-introduction of properly functioning sub-components. Blood constituents can be engineered on the sub-cellular (i.e., DNA recombinant technology) and cellular level (i.e., cellular hitchhiking for drug delivery) for supplementing and enhancing therapeutic efficacy, in addition to rectifying dysfunctioning mechanisms (i.e., clotting). Herein, we report the progress of blood-based therapeutics, with an emphasis on recent applications of blood transfusion, blood cell-based therapies and biomimetic carriers. Clinically translated technologies and commercial products of blood-based therapeutics are subsequently highlighted and perspectives on challenges and future prospects are discussed. Blood-based therapeutics is a burgeoning field and has advanced considerably in recent years. Blood and its constituents, with and without modification (i.e., combinatorial), have been utilized in a broad spectrum of pre-clinical and clinically-translated treatments. This review article summarizes the most up-to-date progress of blood-based therapeutics in the following contexts: synthetic blood substitutes, acellular/non-recombinant therapies, cell-based therapies, and therapeutic sub-components. The article subsequently discusses clinically-translated technologies and future prospects thereof. Copyright © 2018 Acta Materialia Inc. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Is the Current US Navy Pacific Basing Structure Adequate for the Twenty-First Century?

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-12-15

events. The Threat (To Deter, To Defeat, To Maintain the Peace) Chinese Grand Strategy and Maritime Power by Thomas M. Kane ; “China’s Quest for...Congress” by Ronald O’Rourke provide the initial basis for assessment of the potential threat posed by China’s naval buildup. Kane discussed that...cooperation among the ANZUS allies will continue for the foreseeable future. Conclusion There is a significant body of literature covering the history of

Will Climate Change the Future of Homeland Security

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-09-01

coming decades.”6 The global consequences of this finding “could produce drastic effects , such as the collapse of ice sheets, a rapid rise in sea...events that “occur over time and slowly deteriorate a society’s and a population’s capacity to withstand the effects of the hazard or threat.”9 The...legislation, strategies, policies, and practice in disaster consequence management becomes evident. This cause and effect model is primarily based on fast

Animated Pedagogical Agents in Interactive Learning Environment: The Future of Air Force Training?

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-02-01

confusion and disorder. Players enhance their skills of strategy and tactics as they advance through the game and destroy the enemy (Prensky, 2001b...based learning, individual learners control avatars in a 3D world where a CBRNE event has occurred. Participants can also be dispersed. Learners ...how effective the technology is for achieving training goals or 7 where it would be best to apply the technology. Johnson, Rickel, and Lester (2000

Motivation and temporal distance: effect on cognitive and affective manifestations.

PubMed

Bjørnebekk, Gunnar; Gjesme, Torgrim

2009-10-01

The implications of temporal distance on motivation-related concepts were examined. The results of an experiment, based on 585 Grade 6 students, indicated that both positive (approach) and negative (avoidance) motivation increased as the future goal or event approached in time. This increase in approach and avoidance motivation influenced the performance of the pupils differently. For pupils with success orientation, the performance increased. For pupils with failure orientation, the performance remained about the same.

Probability Forecasting Using Monte Carlo Simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duncan, M.; Frisbee, J.; Wysack, J.

2014-09-01

Space Situational Awareness (SSA) is defined as the knowledge and characterization of all aspects of space. SSA is now a fundamental and critical component of space operations. Increased dependence on our space assets has in turn lead to a greater need for accurate, near real-time knowledge of all space activities. With the growth of the orbital debris population, satellite operators are performing collision avoidance maneuvers more frequently. Frequent maneuver execution expends fuel and reduces the operational lifetime of the spacecraft. Thus the need for new, more sophisticated collision threat characterization methods must be implemented. The collision probability metric is used operationally to quantify the collision risk. The collision probability is typically calculated days into the future, so that high risk and potential high risk conjunction events are identified early enough to develop an appropriate course of action. As the time horizon to the conjunction event is reduced, the collision probability changes. A significant change in the collision probability will change the satellite mission stakeholder's course of action. So constructing a method for estimating how the collision probability will evolve improves operations by providing satellite operators with a new piece of information, namely an estimate or 'forecast' of how the risk will change as time to the event is reduced. Collision probability forecasting is a predictive process where the future risk of a conjunction event is estimated. The method utilizes a Monte Carlo simulation that produces a likelihood distribution for a given collision threshold. Using known state and state uncertainty information, the simulation generates a set possible trajectories for a given space object pair. Each new trajectory produces a unique event geometry at the time of close approach. Given state uncertainty information for both objects, a collision probability value can be computed for every trail. This yields a collision probability distribution given known, predicted uncertainty. This paper presents the details of the collision probability forecasting method. We examine various conjunction event scenarios and numerically demonstrate the utility of this approach in typical event scenarios. We explore the utility of a probability-based track scenario simulation that models expected tracking data frequency as the tasking levels are increased. The resulting orbital uncertainty is subsequently used in the forecasting algorithm.

Improving Understanding of Hydraulic Fracturing-Related Induced Seismicity: A Case for Regulating based on Ground Motion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Urbancic, T.; Bosman, K.; Baig, A. M.; Viegas, G. F.

2016-12-01

In response to a number of high-profile incidents of induced seismicity related to petroleum operations, several jurisdictions have enacted regulations requiring modification or temporary shut-down of operations of wells near significant earthquakes. However, these regulations are based on earthquake magnitude alone, and generally local (or Richter) magnitude (ML) if specified at all. We discuss two earthquakes which occurred near Fox Creek, Alberta, Canada, in close proximity to hydraulic fracturing operations, as examples of some complications which may arise in analyzing suspected induced events. For an event that occurred on June 13, 2015, detailed magnitude assessments were performed by two groups in addition to moment magnitude (MW) estimates from the USGS and NRCan. The resulting magnitudes vary between MW3.9- 4.6, thus some estimates would trigger the shut-down regulations in Alberta (M > 4), while some merely require operational modifications (2 < M < 4). Using data from the RAVEN network, we have analyzed an event which occurred on January 12, 2016. We calculate a magnitude of MW4.3 for this event, which agrees within error with estimates from NRCan (MW4.4) and the USGS (Mb4.2). All magnitude estimates for the January 12, 2016 event exceed the threshold for operational shut-down in Alberta. Comparing the spectral amplitude measured at each station to existing standards from the former United States Bureau of Mines and the Uniform Building Code, we determine that structures within 35km of the epicenter may experience light damage due to this earthquake, depending on local soil conditions. Stress drops observed for the events analyzed were 6MPa and 13MPa, in line with typical tectonic events and in contrast to the low values observed for suspected wastewater-injection induced events. This suggests the events were driven by stress redistribution rather than direct influence of fluids. Theoretical source spectra illustrate the profound effect of stress drop on ground motion. Due to the extreme difficulty of predicting the source characteristics of future induced events, regulating based on magnitude alone appears to be an overly simplistic approach. Regulations incorporating observed ground motion provide a more appropriate method of assessing the potential damage resulting from induced seismicity.

Drought prediction till 2100 under RCP 8.5 climate change scenarios for Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Chang-Kyun; Byun, Hi-Ryong; Deo, Ravinesh; Lee, Bo-Ra

2015-07-01

An important step in mitigating the negative impacts of drought requires effective methodologies for predicting the future events. This study utilises the daily Effective Drought Index (EDI) to precisely and quantitatively predict future drought occurrences in Korea over the period 2014-2100. The EDI is computed from precipitation data generated by the regional climate model (HadGEM3-RA) under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP 8.5) scenario. Using this data for 678 grid points (12.5 km interval) groups of cluster regions with similar climates, the G1 (Northwest), G2 (Middle), G3 (Northeast) and G4 (Southern) regions, are constructed. Drought forecasting period is categorised into the early phase (EP, 2014-2040), middle phase (MP, 2041-2070) and latter phase (LP, 2071-2100). Future drought events are quantified and ranked according to the duration and intensity. Moreover, the occurrences of drought (when, where, how severe) within the clustered regions are represented as a spatial map over Korea. Based on the grid-point averages, the most severe future drought throughout the 87-year period are expected to occur in Namwon around 2039-2041 with peak intensity (minimum EDI) -3.54 and projected duration of 580 days. The most severe drought by cluster analysis is expected to occur in the G3 region with a mean intensity of -2.85 in 2027. Within the spatial area of investigation, 6.6 years of drought periodicity and a slight decrease in the peak intensity is noted. Finally a spatial-temporal drought map is constructed for all clusters and time-periods under consideration.

Drought Prediction till 2100 Under RCP 8.5 Climate Change Scenarios for Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Byun, H. R.; Park, C. K.; Deo, R. C.

2014-12-01

An important step in mitigating the negative impacts of drought requires effective methodologies for predicting the future events. This study utilizes the daily Effective Drought Index (EDI) to precisely and quantitatively predict future drought occurrences in Korea over the period 2014-2100. The EDI is computed from precipitation data generated by the regional climate model (HadGEM3-RA) under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP 8.5) scenario. Using this data for 678 grid points (12.5 km interval) groups of cluster regions with similar climates, the G1 (Northwest), G2 (Middle), G3 (Northeast) and G4 (Southern) regions, are constructed. Drought forecasting period is categorised into the early phase (EP, 2014-2040), middle phase (MP, 2041-2070) and latter phase (LP, 2071-2100). Future drought events are quantified and ranked according to the duration and intensity. Moreover, the occurrences of drought (when, where, how severe) within the clustered regions are represented as a spatial map over Korea. Based on the grid-point averages, the most severe future drought throughout the 87-year period are expected to occur in Namwon around 2039-2041 with peak intensity (minimum EDI) -3.54 and projected duration of 580 days. The most severe drought by cluster analysis is expected to occur in the G3 region with a mean intensity of -2.85 in 2027. Within the spatial area of investigation, 6 years of drought periodicity and a slight decrease in the peak intensity is noted. Finally a spatial-temporal drought map is constructed for all clusters and time-periods under consideration.

12 CFR 615.5301 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... that are dependent on future income or future events, institution, permanent capital, and total capital... maturity date, not redeemable at the option of the holder, and having no other provisions that will require the future redemption of the issue. (h) Qualified allocated equities means allocations of earnings...

Turning I into me: Imagining your future self.

PubMed

Macrae, C Neil; Mitchell, Jason P; Tait, Kirsten A; McNamara, Diana L; Golubickis, Marius; Topalidis, Pavlos P; Christian, Brittany M

2015-12-01

A widely endorsed belief is that perceivers imagine their present selves using a different representational format than imagining their future selves (i.e., near future=first-person; distant future=third-person). But is this really the case? Responding to the paucity of work on this topic, here we considered how temporal distance influences the extent to which individuals direct their attention outward or inward during a brief imaginary episode. Using a non-verbal measure of visual perspective taking (i.e., letter-drawing task) our results confirmed the hypothesized relation between temporal distance and conceptions of the self. Whereas simulations of an event in the near future were dominated by a first-person representation of the self, this switched to a third-person depiction when the event was located in the distant future. Critically, this switch in vantage point was restricted to self-related simulations. The theoretical and practical implications of these findings are considered. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The influence of hydrologic residence time on lake carbon cycling dynamics following extreme precipitation events

Treesearch

Jacob A. Zwart; Stephen D. Sebestyen; Christopher T. Solomon; Stuart E. Jones

2016-01-01

The frequency and magnitude of extreme events are expected to increase in the future, yet little is known about effects of such events on ecosystem structure and function. We examined how extreme precipitation events affect exports of terrestrial dissolved organic carbon (t-DOC) from watersheds to lakes as well as in-lake heterotrophy in three north-temperate lakes....

Discussion of the Controversy Concerning a Historical Event among Pre-Service Teachers: Contributions to Their Knowledge about Science, Their Argumentative Skills, and Reflections about Their Future Teaching Practices

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Justi, Rosária; Mendonça, Paula Cristina Cardoso

2016-01-01

As part of a teacher training project, 16 future chemistry teachers participated in a dramatisation activity (a mock trial of the Fritz Haber case), in which they discussed a controversy concerning an event from the history of science: the awarding of the Nobel Prize in Chemistry to Fritz Haber in 1918. Preparations for the role-play activity, the…

Can mind-wandering be timeless? Atemporal focus and aging in mind-wandering paradigms

PubMed Central

Jackson, Jonathan D.; Weinstein, Yana; Balota, David A.

2013-01-01

Recent research has examined how often mind-wandering occurs about past vs. future events. However, mind-wandering may also be atemporal, although previous investigations of this possibility have not yielded consistent results. Indeed, it is unclear what proportion of mind-wandering is atemporal, and also how an atemporal response option would affect the future-oriented bias often reported during low-demand tasks used to measure mind-wandering. The present study examined self-reported (Experiment 1) and probe-caught (Experiment 2) mind-wandering using the low-demand Sustained Attention to Response Task (SART) in younger (18–30) and older (50–73) adults in an experimental paradigm developed to measure mind-wandering using Amazon's Mechanical Turk (Mturk). Across self-reported and probe-caught mind-wandering, the atemporal response option was used at least as frequently as past or future mind-wandering options. Although older adults reported far fewer mind-wandering events, they showed a very similar temporal pattern to younger adults. Most importantly, inclusion of the atemporal report option affected performance on the SART and selectively eliminated the prospective bias in self-reported mind-wandering, but not in probe-caught mind-wandering. These results suggest that both young and older participants are often not thinking of past or future events when mind-wandering, but are thinking of events that cannot easily be categorized as either. PMID:24137147

Risk analysis for the flood control capacity of dikes under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, Hsiao Ping; Yeh, Keh-Chia; Hsiao, Yi-Hua

2017-04-01

Climate change is the major reason for many extreme disaster events. In recent years, scientists have revealed many findings and most of them agree that the frequency of extreme weather and its corresponding hydrological impact will increase due to climate change. In such situation, the current hydrologic designs based upon historical observation, which could be changed, are necessary to review again under the scenario of climate change. It is for this reason that this study uses Kao-Ping River Basin as an example, using high resolution dynamical downscaling data (base period, near future, and end of the century) to simulate changes in hourly flow rate of typhoon events in each of the three 25-year periods. Results are further compared with the design flow rate announced by the competent authority of water resources, as well as recorded river water levels of the most severe typhoon event in history and risk analysis basic on factors, to evaluate the risk and impact of river flooding under climate change.From the simulation results, the frequency of exceeding design discharge in Kao-ping river catchment will increase in the end of century. The water level at these LI-LIN BRIDGE and SAN-TI-MEN gauges could be obviously influenced due to the extreme rainfall events, so that their flood control capacity should be assessed and improved.

Peritraumatic panic attacks and health outcomes two years after psychological trauma: implications for intervention and research.

PubMed

Boscarino, Joseph A; Adams, Richard E

2009-05-15

Several studies have suggested that experiencing a peritraumatic panic attack (PPA) during a traumatic event predicts future mental health status. Some investigators have suggested that this finding has psychotherapeutic significance. We assessed the hypothesis that PPA was not related to longer-term health status after event exposure, once background confounders were controlled. In our study we assessed exposure to the World Trade Center disaster (WTCD) and other negative life events, demographic factors, social support, self-esteem, and panic attack onset in predicting health outcome among 1681 New York City residents 2 years after the attack. Initial bivariate results indicated that a PPA was related to a number of adverse outcomes 2 years after the WTCD, including posttraumatic stress disorder, depression, poor physical health, anxiety, binge drinking, and mental health treatment seeking. However, when multivariate (MV) models were estimated adjusting for potential confounders, most of these associations were either non-significant or substantially reduced. Contrary to previous predictions, these MV models revealed that recent negative life events and current self-esteem at follow-up were the best predictors of health outcomes, not PPA. Although post-trauma interventions may target individuals who experienced PPA after traumatic exposures, reducing the long-term health consequences following such exposures based on PPA alone may be problematic. Modifications of psychopathology constructs based on the reported correlation between PPA and post-trauma outcomes may be premature.

The Strengths and Weaknesses of Logic Formalisms to Support Mishap Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, C. W.; Holloway, C. M.

2002-01-01

The increasing complexity of many safety critical systems poses new problems for mishap analysis. Techniques developed in the sixties and seventies cannot easily scale-up to analyze incidents involving tightly integrated software and hardware components. Similarly, the realization that many failures have systemic causes has widened the scope of many mishap investigations. Organizations, including NASA and the NTSB, have responded by starting research and training initiatives to ensure that their personnel are well equipped to meet these challenges. One strand of research has identified a range of mathematically based techniques that can be used to reason about the causes of complex, adverse events. The proponents of these techniques have argued that they can be used to formally prove that certain events created the necessary and sufficient causes for a mishap to occur. Mathematical proofs can reduce the bias that is often perceived to effect the interpretation of adverse events. Others have opposed the introduction of these techniques by identifying social and political aspects to incident investigation that cannot easily be reconciled with a logic-based approach. Traditional theorem proving mechanisms cannot accurately capture the wealth of inductive, deductive and statistical forms of inference that investigators routinely use in their analysis of adverse events. This paper summarizes some of the benefits that logics provide, describes their weaknesses, and proposes a number of directions for future research.

Episodic Future Thinking: Expansion of the Temporal Window in Individuals with Alcohol Dependence.

PubMed

Snider, Sarah E; LaConte, Stephen M; Bickel, Warren K

2016-07-01

Episodic future thinking (EFT) requires an individual to vividly pre-experience a realistic future event. Inspired by previous reports of reducing delay discounting following EFT in other populations, we examined the effects of engaging alcohol-dependent individuals in EFT or episodic recent thinking (ERT; control) to examine its effects on delay discounting and alcohol purchasing. Participants (n = 50) with alcohol dependence were allocated into EFT or ERT groups and asked to generate positive future or recent past events for each of 5 time points. Participants then completed a delay-discounting task, during which event cues were displayed, and a hypothetical alcohol purchase task. EFT significantly increased valuation of future monetary rewards, while decreasing initial consumption (Q0 ) of alcoholic drinks indicative of lower demand intensity. Two additional findings suggest potential moderators of this effect. EFT more readily influenced individuals with lower Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test scores, and self-reported cue valence differed between groups. Together, these results suggest a widening of alcohol-dependent individuals' temporal window following engagement of EFT. While our data suggest that EFT may be moderated by certain susceptibility criteria, exercises such as EFT could be easily adaptable as a potential therapeutic tool for use in rehabilitation programs. Copyright © 2016 by the Research Society on Alcoholism.