Quantifying Future PM2.5 and Associated Health Effects Due to Changes in US Wildfires

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pierce, J. R.; Val Martin, M.; Ford, B.; Zelasky, S.; Heald, C. L.; Li, F.; Lawrence, D. M.; Fischer, E. V.

2017-12-01

Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) from landscape fires has been shown to adversely affect visibility, air quality and and health across the US. Fire activity is strongly related to climate and human activities. Predictions based on climate scenarios and future land cover projections that consider socioeconomic development suggest that fire activity will rise dramatically over the next decades. As PM2.5 is associated with increased mortality and morbidity rates, increases in emissions from landscape fires may alter the health burden on the US population. Here we present an analysis of the changes in future wildfire activity and consequences for PM2.5 and health over the US from 2000 to 2100. We employ the global Community Earth System Model (CESM) with the IPCC RCP projections. Within CESM, we use a process-based global fire parameterization to project future climate-driven and human-caused fire emissions. From these simulations, we determine the current and future impact on PM2.5 concentrations and visibility for different regions of the US, and we also calculate the mortality attributable to PM2.5 and wildfire-specific PM2.5 using existing concentration-response functions. Results show that although total PM2.5 concentrations in the US are projected to be similar in 2100 as in 2000, the dominant source of PM2.5 will change. Under the RCP8.5 climate projection and SSP3 population projection, non-fire emissions (mostly anthropogenic) are projected to decrease, but PM2.5 from CONUS and non-US wildfires is projected to increase from approximately 20% of all PM2.5 in 2000 to 80% of all PM2.5 in 2100. Furthermore, although the US population is expected to decline between 2000 and 2100, the mortality attributable to wildfire smoke is expected to increase from 25,000 deaths per year in 2000 to 75,000 deaths per year in 2100.

Research and management issues in large-scale fire modeling

Treesearch

David L. Peterson; Daniel L. Schmoldt

2000-01-01

In 1996, a team of North American fire scientists and resource managers convened to assess the effects of fire disturbance on ecosystems and to develop scientific recommendations for future fire research and management activities. These recommendations - elicited with the Analytic Hierarchy Process - include numerically ranked scientific and managerial questions and...

Synergy between land use and climate change increases future fire risk in Amazon forests

DOE PAGES

Le Page, Yannick; Morton, Douglas; Hartin, Corinne; ...

2017-12-20

Tropical forests have been a permanent feature of the Amazon basin for at least 55 million years, yet climate change and land use threaten the forest's future over the next century. Understory forest fires, which are common under the current climate in frontier forests, may accelerate Amazon forest losses from climate-driven dieback and deforestation. Far from land use frontiers, scarce fire ignitions and high moisture levels preclude significant burning, yet projected climate and land use changes may increase fire activity in these remote regions. Here, we used a fire model specifically parameterized for Amazon understory fires to examine the interactionsmore » between anthropogenic activities and climate under current and projected conditions. In a scenario of low mitigation efforts with substantial land use expansion and climate change – Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 – projected understory fires increase in frequency and duration, burning 4–28 times more forest in 2080–2100 than during 1990–2010. In contrast, active climate mitigation and land use contraction in RCP4.5 constrain the projected increase in fire activity to 0.9–5.4 times contemporary burned area. Importantly, if climate mitigation is not successful, land use contraction alone is very effective under low to moderate climate change, but does little to reduce fire activity under the most severe climate projections. These results underscore the potential for a fire-driven transformation of Amazon forests if recent regional policies for forest conservation are not paired with global efforts to mitigate climate change.« less

Synergy between land use and climate change increases future fire risk in Amazon forests

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Le Page, Yannick; Morton, Douglas; Hartin, Corinne

Tropical forests have been a permanent feature of the Amazon basin for at least 55 million years, yet climate change and land use threaten the forest's future over the next century. Understory forest fires, which are common under the current climate in frontier forests, may accelerate Amazon forest losses from climate-driven dieback and deforestation. Far from land use frontiers, scarce fire ignitions and high moisture levels preclude significant burning, yet projected climate and land use changes may increase fire activity in these remote regions. Here, we used a fire model specifically parameterized for Amazon understory fires to examine the interactionsmore » between anthropogenic activities and climate under current and projected conditions. In a scenario of low mitigation efforts with substantial land use expansion and climate change – Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 – projected understory fires increase in frequency and duration, burning 4–28 times more forest in 2080–2100 than during 1990–2010. In contrast, active climate mitigation and land use contraction in RCP4.5 constrain the projected increase in fire activity to 0.9–5.4 times contemporary burned area. Importantly, if climate mitigation is not successful, land use contraction alone is very effective under low to moderate climate change, but does little to reduce fire activity under the most severe climate projections. These results underscore the potential for a fire-driven transformation of Amazon forests if recent regional policies for forest conservation are not paired with global efforts to mitigate climate change.« less

Potential climate change impacts on fire intensity and key wildfire suppression thresholds in Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wotton, B. M.; Flannigan, M. D.; Marshall, G. A.

2017-09-01

Much research has been carried out on the potential impacts of climate change on forest fire activity in the boreal forest. Indeed, there is a general consensus that, while change will vary regionally across the vast extent of the boreal, in general the fire environment will become more conducive to fire. Land management agencies must consider ways to adapt to these new conditions. This paper examines the impact of that changed fire environment on overall wildfire suppression capability. We use multiple General Circulation Models and carbon emission pathways to generate future fire environment scenarios for Canada’s forested region. We then use these scenarios with the Canadian Forest Fire Behaviour Prediction System and spatial coverages of the current forest fuel composition across the landscape to examine potential variation in key fire behaviour outputs that influence whether fire management resources can effectively suppress fire. Specifically, we evaluate how the potential for crown fire occurrence and active growth of fires changes with the changing climate. We also examine future fire behaviour through the lens of operational fire intensity thresholds used to guide decisions about resources effectiveness. Results indicate that the proportion of days in fire seasons with the potential for unmanageable fire will increase across Canada’s forest, more than doubling in some regions in northern and eastern boreal forest.

Analysis of the ability of large-scale reanalysis data to define Siberian fire danger in preparation for future fire prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soja, Amber; Westberg, David; Stackhouse, Paul, Jr.; McRae, Douglas; Jin, Ji-Zhong; Sukhinin, Anatoly

2010-05-01

Fire is the dominant disturbance that precipitates ecosystem change in boreal regions, and fire is largely under the control of weather and climate. Fire frequency, fire severity, area burned and fire season length are predicted to increase in boreal regions under current climate change scenarios. Therefore, changes in fire regimes have the potential to compel ecological change, moving ecosystems more quickly towards equilibrium with a new climate. The ultimate goal of this research is to assess the viability of large-scale (1°) data to be used to define fire weather danger and fire regimes, so that large-scale data can be confidently used to predict future fire regimes using large-scale fire weather data, like that available from current Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate change scenarios. In this talk, we intent to: (1) evaluate Fire Weather Indices (FWI) derived using reanalysis and interpolated station data; (2) discuss the advantages and disadvantages of using these distinct data sources; and (3) highlight established relationships between large-scale fire weather data, area burned, active fires and ecosystems burned. Specifically, the Canadian Forestry Service (CFS) Fire Weather Index (FWI) will be derived using: (1) NASA Goddard Earth Observing System version 4 (GEOS-4) large-scale reanalysis and NASA Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) data; and National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) surface station-interpolated data. Requirements of the FWI are local noon surface-level air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and daily (noon-noon) rainfall. GEOS-4 reanalysis and NCDC station-interpolated fire weather indices are generally consistent spatially, temporally and quantitatively. Additionally, increased fire activity coincides with increased FWI ratings in both data products. Relationships have been established between large-scale FWI to area burned, fire frequency, ecosystem types, and these can be use to estimate historic and future fire regimes.

Abrupt climate-independent fire regime changes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pausas, Juli G.; Keeley, Jon E.

2014-01-01

Wildfires have played a determining role in distribution, composition and structure of many ecosystems worldwide and climatic changes are widely considered to be a major driver of future fire regime changes. However, forecasting future climatic change induced impacts on fire regimes will require a clearer understanding of other drivers of abrupt fire regime changes. Here, we focus on evidence from different environmental and temporal settings of fire regimes changes that are not directly attributed to climatic changes. We review key cases of these abrupt fire regime changes at different spatial and temporal scales, including those directly driven (i) by fauna, (ii) by invasive plant species, and (iii) by socio-economic and policy changes. All these drivers might generate non-linear effects of landscape changes in fuel structure; that is, they generate fuel changes that can cross thresholds of landscape continuity, and thus drastically change fire activity. Although climatic changes might contribute to some of these changes, there are also many instances that are not primarily linked to climatic shifts. Understanding the mechanism driving fire regime changes should contribute to our ability to better assess future fire regimes.

One thousand years of fires: Integrating proxy and model data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kehrwald, Natalie; Aleman, Julie C.; Coughlan, Michael; Courtney Mustaphi, Colin J.; Githumbi, Esther N.; Magi, Brian I.; Marlon, Jennifer R.; Power, Mitchell J.

2016-01-01

The expected increase in fire activity in the upcoming decades has led to a surge in research trying to understand their causes, the factors that may have influenced similar times of fire activity in the past, and the implications of such fire activity in the future. Multiple types of complementary data provide information on the impacts of current fires and the extent of past fires. The wide array of data encompasses different spatial and temporal resolutions (Figure 1) and includes fire proxy information such as charcoal and tree ring fire scars, observational records, satellite products, modern emissions data, fire models within global land cover and vegetation models, and sociodemographic data for modeling past human land use and ignition frequency. Any single data type is more powerful when combined with another source of information. Merging model and proxy data enables analyses of how fire activity modifies vegetation distribution, air and water quality, and proximity to cities; these analyses in turn support land management decisions relating to conservation and development.

Assessing the effects of fire disturbance on ecosystems: a scientific agenda for research and management.

Treesearch

Daniel L. Schmoldt; David L. Peterson; Robert E. Keane; James M. Lenihan; Donald McKenzie; David R. Weise; David V. Sandberg

1999-01-01

A team of fire scientists and resource managers convened 17-19 April 1996 in Seattle, Washington, to assess the effects of fire disturbance on ecosystems. Objectives of this workshop were to develop scientific recommendations for future fire research and management activities. These recommendations included a series of numerically ranked scientific and managerial...

Socioecological transitions trigger fire regime shifts and modulate fire-climate interactions in the Sierra Nevada, USA, 1600-2015 CE.

PubMed

Taylor, Alan H; Trouet, Valerie; Skinner, Carl N; Stephens, Scott

2016-11-29

Large wildfires in California cause significant socioecological impacts, and half of the federal funds for fire suppression are spent each year in California. Future fire activity is projected to increase with climate change, but predictions are uncertain because humans can modulate or even override climatic effects on fire activity. Here we test the hypothesis that changes in socioecological systems from the Native American to the current period drove shifts in fire activity and modulated fire-climate relationships in the Sierra Nevada. We developed a 415-y record (1600-2015 CE) of fire activity by merging a tree-ring-based record of Sierra Nevada fire history with a 20th-century record based on annual area burned. Large shifts in the fire record corresponded with socioecological change, and not climate change, and socioecological conditions amplified and buffered fire response to climate. Fire activity was highest and fire-climate relationships were strongest after Native American depopulation-following mission establishment (ca. 1775 CE)-reduced the self-limiting effect of Native American burns on fire spread. With the Gold Rush and Euro-American settlement (ca. 1865 CE), fire activity declined, and the strong multidecadal relationship between temperature and fire decayed and then disappeared after implementation of fire suppression (ca. 1904 CE). The amplification and buffering of fire-climate relationships by humans underscores the need for parameterizing thresholds of human- vs. climate-driven fire activity to improve the skill and value of fire-climate models for addressing the increasing fire risk in California.

Atlantic SSTs control regime shifts in forest fire activity of Northern Scandinavia

PubMed Central

Drobyshev, Igor; Bergeron, Yves; Vernal, Anne de; Moberg, Anders; Ali, Adam A.; Niklasson, Mats

2016-01-01

Understanding the drivers of the boreal forest fire activity is challenging due to the complexity of the interactions driving fire regimes. We analyzed drivers of forest fire activity in Northern Scandinavia (above 60 N) by combining modern and proxy data over the Holocene. The results suggest that the cold climate in northern Scandinavia was generally characterized by dry conditions favourable to periods of regionally increased fire activity. We propose that the cold conditions over the northern North Atlantic, associated with low SSTs, expansion of sea ice cover, and the southward shift in the position of the subpolar gyre, redirect southward the precipitation over Scandinavia, associated with the westerlies. This dynamics strengthens high pressure systems over Scandinavia and results in increased regional fire activity. Our study reveals a previously undocumented teleconnection between large scale climate and ocean dynamics over the North Atlantic and regional boreal forest fire activity in Northern Scandinavia. Consistency of the pattern observed annually through millennium scales suggests that a strong link between Atlantic SST and fire activity on multiple temporal scales over the entire Holocene is relevant for understanding future fire activity across the European boreal zone. PMID:26940995

Atlantic SSTs control regime shifts in forest fire activity of Northern Scandinavia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Drobyshev, Igor; Bergeron, Yves; Vernal, Anne De; Moberg, Anders; Ali, Adam A.; Niklasson, Mats

2016-03-01

Understanding the drivers of the boreal forest fire activity is challenging due to the complexity of the interactions driving fire regimes. We analyzed drivers of forest fire activity in Northern Scandinavia (above 60 N) by combining modern and proxy data over the Holocene. The results suggest that the cold climate in northern Scandinavia was generally characterized by dry conditions favourable to periods of regionally increased fire activity. We propose that the cold conditions over the northern North Atlantic, associated with low SSTs, expansion of sea ice cover, and the southward shift in the position of the subpolar gyre, redirect southward the precipitation over Scandinavia, associated with the westerlies. This dynamics strengthens high pressure systems over Scandinavia and results in increased regional fire activity. Our study reveals a previously undocumented teleconnection between large scale climate and ocean dynamics over the North Atlantic and regional boreal forest fire activity in Northern Scandinavia. Consistency of the pattern observed annually through millennium scales suggests that a strong link between Atlantic SST and fire activity on multiple temporal scales over the entire Holocene is relevant for understanding future fire activity across the European boreal zone.

Atlantic SSTs control regime shifts in forest fire activity of Northern Scandinavia.

PubMed

Drobyshev, Igor; Bergeron, Yves; Vernal, Anne de; Moberg, Anders; Ali, Adam A; Niklasson, Mats

2016-03-04

Understanding the drivers of the boreal forest fire activity is challenging due to the complexity of the interactions driving fire regimes. We analyzed drivers of forest fire activity in Northern Scandinavia (above 60 N) by combining modern and proxy data over the Holocene. The results suggest that the cold climate in northern Scandinavia was generally characterized by dry conditions favourable to periods of regionally increased fire activity. We propose that the cold conditions over the northern North Atlantic, associated with low SSTs, expansion of sea ice cover, and the southward shift in the position of the subpolar gyre, redirect southward the precipitation over Scandinavia, associated with the westerlies. This dynamics strengthens high pressure systems over Scandinavia and results in increased regional fire activity. Our study reveals a previously undocumented teleconnection between large scale climate and ocean dynamics over the North Atlantic and regional boreal forest fire activity in Northern Scandinavia. Consistency of the pattern observed annually through millennium scales suggests that a strong link between Atlantic SST and fire activity on multiple temporal scales over the entire Holocene is relevant for understanding future fire activity across the European boreal zone.

A conceptual framework for predicting temperate ecosystem sensitivity to human impacts on fire regimes

Treesearch

D. B. McWethy; P. E. Higuera; C. Whitlock; T. T. Veblen; D. M. J. S. Bowman; G. J. Cary; S. G. Haberle; R. E. Keane; B. D. Maxwell; M. S. McGlone; G. L. W. Perry; J. M. Wilmshurst

2013-01-01

The increased incidence of large fires around much of the world in recent decades raises questions about human and non-human drivers of fire and the likelihood of increased fire activity in the future. The purpose of this paper is to outline a conceptual framework for examining where human-set fires and feedbacks are likely to be most pronounced in temperate forests...

Broadleaf deciduous forest counterbalanced the direct effect of climate on Holocene fire regime in hemiboreal/boreal region (NE Europe)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feurdean, Angelica; Veski, Siim; Florescu, Gabriela; Vannière, Boris; Pfeiffer, Mirjam; O'Hara, Robert B.; Stivrins, Normunds; Amon, Leeli; Heinsalu, Atko; Vassiljev, Jüri; Hickler, Thomas

2017-08-01

Disturbances by fire are essential for the functioning of boreal/hemiboreal forests, but knowledge of long-term fire regime dynamics is limited. We analysed macrocharcoal morphologies and pollen of a sediment record from Lake Lielais Svētiņu (eastern Latvia), and in conjunction with fire traits analysis present the first record of Holocene variability in fire regime, fuel sources and fire types in boreal forests of the Baltic region. We found a phase of moderate to high fire activity during the cool and moist early (mean fire return interval; mFRI of ∼280 years; 11,700-7500 cal yr BP) and the late (mFRI of ∼190 years; 4500-0 cal yr BP) Holocene and low fire activity (mFRI of ∼630 years) during the Holocene Thermal Optimum (7500-4500 cal yr BP). Charcoal morphotypes and the pollen record show the predominance of frequent surface fires, occasionally transitioning to the crown during Pinus sylvestris-Betula boreal forests and less frequent surface fires during the dominance of temperate deciduous forests. In contrast to the prevailing opinion that fires in boreal forests are mostly low to moderate severity surface fires, we found evidence for common occurrence of stand-replacing crown fires in Picea abies canopy. Our results highlight that charcoal morphotypes analysis allows for distinguishing the fuel types and surface from crown fires, therefore significantly advancing our interpretation of fire regime. Future warmer temperatures and increase in the frequency of dry spells and abundant biomass accumulation can enhance the fire risk on the one hand, but will probably promote the expansion of broadleaf deciduous forests to higher latitudes, on the other hand. By highlighting the capability of broadleaf deciduous forests to act as fire-suppressing landscape elements, our results suggest that fire activity may not increase in the Baltic area under future climate change.

Potential changes in forest composition could reduce impacts of climate change on boreal wildfires.

PubMed

Terrier, Aurélie; Girardin, Martin P; Périé, Catherine; Legendre, Pierre; Bergeron, Yves

2013-01-01

There is general consensus that wildfires in boreal forests will increase throughout this century in response to more severe and frequent drought conditions induced by climate change. However, prediction models generally assume that the vegetation component will remain static over the next few decades. As deciduous species are less flammable than conifer species, it is reasonable to believe that a potential expansion of deciduous species in boreal forests, either occurring naturally or through landscape management, could offset some of the impacts of climate change on the occurrence of boreal wildfires. The objective of this study was to determine the potential of this offsetting effect through a simulation experiment conducted in eastern boreal North America. Predictions of future fire activity were made using multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) with fire behavior indices and ecological niche models as predictor variables so as to take into account the effects of changing climate and tree distribution on fire activity. A regional climate model (RCM) was used for predictions of future fire risk conditions. The experiment was conducted under two tree dispersal scenarios: the status quo scenario, in which the distribution of forest types does not differ from the present one, and the unlimited dispersal scenario, which allows forest types to expand their range to fully occupy their climatic niche. Our results show that future warming will create climate conditions that are more prone to fire occurrence. However, unlimited dispersal of southern restricted deciduous species could reduce the impact of climate change on future fire occurrence. Hence, the use of deciduous species could be a good option for an efficient strategic fire mitigation strategy aimed at reducing fire Propagation in coniferous landscapes and increasing public safety in remote populated areas of eastern boreal Canada under climate change.

A Coupled Model for Simulating Future Wildfire Regimes in the Western U.S.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bart, R. R.; Kennedy, M. C.; Tague, C.; Hanan, E. J.

2017-12-01

Higher temperatures and larger fuel loads in the western U.S. have increased the size and intensity of wildfires over the past decades. However, it is unclear if this trend will continue over the long-term since increased wildfire activity has the countering effect of reducing landscape fuel loads, while higher temperatures alter the rate of vegetation recovery following fire. In this study, we introduce a coupled ecohydrologic-fire model for investigating how changes in vegetation, forest management, climate, and hydrology may affect future fire regimes. The spatially-distributed ecohydrologic model, RHESSys, simulates hydrologic, carbon and nutrient fluxes at watershed scales; the fire-spread model, WMFire, stochastically propagates fire on a landscape based on conditions in the ecohydrologic model. We use the coupled model to replicate fire return intervals in multiple ecoregions within the western U.S., including the southern Sierra Nevada and southern California. We also examine the sensitivity of fire return intervals to various model processes, including litter production, fire severity, and post-fire vegetation recovery rates. Results indicate that the coupled model is able to replicate expected fire return intervals in the selected locations. Fire return intervals were highly sensitive to the rate of vegetation growth, with longer fire return intervals associated with slower growing vegetation. Application of the model is expected to aid in our understanding of how fuel treatments, climate change and droughts may affect future fire regimes.

Socioecological transitions trigger fire regime shifts and modulate fire–climate interactions in the Sierra Nevada, USA, 1600–2015 CE

PubMed Central

Taylor, Alan H.; Trouet, Valerie; Skinner, Carl N.; Stephens, Scott

2016-01-01

Large wildfires in California cause significant socioecological impacts, and half of the federal funds for fire suppression are spent each year in California. Future fire activity is projected to increase with climate change, but predictions are uncertain because humans can modulate or even override climatic effects on fire activity. Here we test the hypothesis that changes in socioecological systems from the Native American to the current period drove shifts in fire activity and modulated fire–climate relationships in the Sierra Nevada. We developed a 415-y record (1600–2015 CE) of fire activity by merging a tree-ring–based record of Sierra Nevada fire history with a 20th-century record based on annual area burned. Large shifts in the fire record corresponded with socioecological change, and not climate change, and socioecological conditions amplified and buffered fire response to climate. Fire activity was highest and fire–climate relationships were strongest after Native American depopulation—following mission establishment (ca. 1775 CE)—reduced the self-limiting effect of Native American burns on fire spread. With the Gold Rush and Euro-American settlement (ca. 1865 CE), fire activity declined, and the strong multidecadal relationship between temperature and fire decayed and then disappeared after implementation of fire suppression (ca. 1904 CE). The amplification and buffering of fire–climate relationships by humans underscores the need for parameterizing thresholds of human- vs. climate-driven fire activity to improve the skill and value of fire–climate models for addressing the increasing fire risk in California. PMID:27849589

Fire activity and severity in the western US vary along proxy gradients representing fuel amount and fuel moisture.

PubMed

Parks, Sean A; Parisien, Marc-André; Miller, Carol; Dobrowski, Solomon Z

2014-01-01

Numerous theoretical and empirical studies have shown that wildfire activity (e.g., area burned) at regional to global scales may be limited at the extremes of environmental gradients such as productivity or moisture. Fire activity, however, represents only one component of the fire regime, and no studies to date have characterized fire severity along such gradients. Given the importance of fire severity in dictating ecological response to fire, this is a considerable knowledge gap. For the western US, we quantify relationships between climate and the fire regime by empirically describing both fire activity and severity along two climatic water balance gradients, actual evapotranspiration (AET) and water deficit (WD), that can be considered proxies for fuel amount and fuel moisture, respectively. We also concurrently summarize fire activity and severity among ecoregions, providing an empirically based description of the geographic distribution of fire regimes. Our results show that fire activity in the western US increases with fuel amount (represented by AET) but has a unimodal (i.e., humped) relationship with fuel moisture (represented by WD); fire severity increases with fuel amount and fuel moisture. The explicit links between fire regime components and physical environmental gradients suggest that multivariable statistical models can be generated to produce an empirically based fire regime map for the western US. Such models will potentially enable researchers to anticipate climate-mediated changes in fire recurrence and its impacts based on gridded spatial data representing future climate scenarios.

Fire Activity and Severity in the Western US Vary along Proxy Gradients Representing Fuel Amount and Fuel Moisture

PubMed Central

Parks, Sean A.; Parisien, Marc-André; Miller, Carol; Dobrowski, Solomon Z.

2014-01-01

Numerous theoretical and empirical studies have shown that wildfire activity (e.g., area burned) at regional to global scales may be limited at the extremes of environmental gradients such as productivity or moisture. Fire activity, however, represents only one component of the fire regime, and no studies to date have characterized fire severity along such gradients. Given the importance of fire severity in dictating ecological response to fire, this is a considerable knowledge gap. For the western US, we quantify relationships between climate and the fire regime by empirically describing both fire activity and severity along two climatic water balance gradients, actual evapotranspiration (AET) and water deficit (WD), that can be considered proxies for fuel amount and fuel moisture, respectively. We also concurrently summarize fire activity and severity among ecoregions, providing an empirically based description of the geographic distribution of fire regimes. Our results show that fire activity in the western US increases with fuel amount (represented by AET) but has a unimodal (i.e., humped) relationship with fuel moisture (represented by WD); fire severity increases with fuel amount and fuel moisture. The explicit links between fire regime components and physical environmental gradients suggest that multivariable statistical models can be generated to produce an empirically based fire regime map for the western US. Such models will potentially enable researchers to anticipate climate-mediated changes in fire recurrence and its impacts based on gridded spatial data representing future climate scenarios. PMID:24941290

The impacts of climate, land use, and demography on fires during the 21st century simulated by CLM-CN

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kloster, S.; Mahowald, N. M.; Randerson, J. T.; Lawrence, P. J.

2012-01-01

Landscape fires during the 21st century are expected to change in response to multiple agents of global change. Important controlling factors include climate controls on the length and intensity of the fire season, fuel availability, and fire management, which are already anthropogenically perturbed today and are predicted to change further in the future. An improved understanding of future fires will contribute to an improved ability to project future anthropogenic climate change, as changes in fire activity will in turn impact climate. In the present study we used a coupled-carbon-fire model to investigate how changes in climate, demography, and land use may alter fire emissions. We used climate projections following the SRES A1B scenario from two different climate models (ECHAM5/MPI-OM and CCSM) and changes in population. Land use and harvest rates were prescribed according to the RCP 45 scenario. In response to the combined effect of all these drivers, our model estimated, depending on our choice of climate projection, an increase in future (2075-2099) fire carbon emissions by 17 and 62% compared to present day (1985-2009). The largest increase in fire emissions was predicted for Southern Hemisphere South America for both climate projections. For Northern Hemisphere Africa, a region that contributed significantly to the global total fire carbon emissions, the response varied between a decrease and an increase depending on the climate projection. We disentangled the contribution of the single forcing factors to the overall response by conducting an additional set of simulations in which each factor was individually held constant at pre-industrial levels. The two different projections of future climate change evaluated in this study led to increases in global fire carbon emissions by 22% (CCSM) and 66% (ECHAM5/MPI-OM). The RCP 45 projection of harvest and land use led to a decrease in fire carbon emissions by -5%. The RCP 26 and RCP 60 harvest and landuse projections caused decreases around -20%. Changes in human ignition led to an increase of 20%. When we also included changes in fire management efforts to suppress fires in densely populated areas, global fire carbon emission decreased by -6% in response to changes in population density. We concluded from this study that changes in fire emissions in the future are controlled by multiple interacting factors. Although changes in climate led to an increase in future fire emissions this could be globally counterbalanced by coupled changes in land use, harvest, and demography.

Future climate and fire interactions in the southeastern region of the United States

Treesearch

Robert J. Mitchell; Yongqiang Liu; Joseph J. O’Brien; Katherine J. Elliott; Gregory Starr; Chelcy Ford Miniat; J. Kevin Hiers

2014-01-01

Fire has a profound, though paradoxical influence on landscapes of the southeastern U.S.; it simultaneously maintains native biodiversity and ecosystem processes but also threatens silvicultural resources and human landscapes. Furthermore, since the majority of the southern landscape is heavily influenced by human activities, contemporary fire regimes are human managed...

Review of levoglucosan in glacier snow and ice studies: Recent progress and future perspectives.

PubMed

You, Chao; Xu, Chao

2018-03-01

Levoglucosan (LEV) in glacier snow and ice layers provides a fingerprint of fire activity, ranging from modern air pollution to ancient fire emissions. In this study, we review recent progress in our understanding and application of LEV in glaciers, including analytical methods, transport and post-depositional processes, and historical records. We firstly summarize progress in analytical methods for determination of LEV in glacier snow and ice. Then, we discuss the processes influencing the records of LEV in snow and ice layers. Finally, we make some recommendations for future work, such as assessing the stability of LEV and obtaining continuous records, to increase reliability of the reconstructed ancient fire activity. This review provides an update for researchers working with LEV and will facilitate the further use of LEV as a biomarker in paleo-fire studies based on ice core records. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Seasonal changes in the human alteration of fire regimes beyond the climate forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fréjaville, Thibaut; Curt, Thomas

2017-03-01

Human activities have altered fire regimes for millennia by suppressing or enhancing natural fire activity. However, whether these anthropogenic pressures on fire activity have exceeded and will surpass climate forcing still remains uncertain. We tested if, how and the extent to which seasonal fire activity in southern France has recently (1976-2009) deviated from climate-expected trends. The latter were simulated using an ensemble of detrended fire-climate models. We found both seasonal and regional contrasts in climatic effects through a mixture of drought-driven and fuel-limited fire regimes. Dry contemporary conditions chiefly drove fire frequency and burned area, although higher fire activity was related to wetter conditions in the last three years. Surprisingly, the relative importance of preceding wet conditions was higher in winter than in summer, illustrating the strong potential dependency of regional fire-climate relationships on the human use and control of fires. In the Mediterranean mountains, warm winters and springs favour extensive fires in the following dry summer. These results highlight that increasing dryness with climate change could have antagonistic effects on fire regime by leading to larger fires in summer (moisture-limited), but lower fire activity in winter (fuel-limited fire regime). Furthermore, fire trends have significantly diverged from climatic expectations, with a strong negative alteration in fire activity in the Mediterranean lowlands and the summer burned area in the mountains. In contrast, alteration of winter fire frequency in the Mediterranean and Temperate mountains has shifted from positive to negative (or null) trends during the mid-1990s, a period when fire suppression policy underwent major revisions. Our findings demonstrate that changes in land-use and fire suppression policy have probably exceeded the strength of climate change effects on changing fire regime in southern Europe, making regional predictions of future fires highly challenging.

Fire activity and hydrological dynamics in the past 5700 years reconstructed from Sphagnum peatlands along the oceanic-continental climatic gradient in northern Poland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marcisz, Katarzyna; Gałka, Mariusz; Pietrala, Patryk; Miotk-Szpiganowicz, Grażyna; Obremska, Milena; Tobolski, Kazimierz; Lamentowicz, Mariusz

2017-12-01

Fire is a critical component of many ecosystems and, as predicted by various climate models, fire activity may increase significantly in the following years due to climate change. Therefore, knowledge about the past fire activity of various ecosystems is highly important for future nature conservation purposes. We present results of high-resolution investigation of fire activity and hydrological changes in northern Poland. We analyzed microscopic charcoal from three Sphagnum-dominated peatlands located on the south of Baltic, on the oceanic-continental (west-east) climatic gradient, and reconstructed the history of fire in the last 5700 years. We hypothesize that air circulation patterns are highly important for local fire activity, and that fire activity is more intensive in peatlands influenced by continental air masses. We have found out that forest fires have been occurring regularly since the past millennia and were linked to climatic conditions. We show that fire activity (related to climate and fuel availability) was significantly higher in sites dominated by continental climate (northeastern Poland) than in the site located under oceanic conditions (northwestern Poland)-microscopic charcoal influx was 13.3 times higher in the eastern study site of the gradient, compared to the western study site. Recorded fire activity patterns were different between the sites in a long timescale. Moreover, most of the recorded charcoal peaks occurred during high water tables. Rising human pressure has caused droughts and water table instability, and substantial increase in fire activity in the last 400 years.

The impact of precipitation regimes on forest fires in Yunnan Province, southwest China.

PubMed

Chen, Feng; Niu, Shukui; Tong, Xiaojuan; Zhao, Jinlong; Sun, Yu; He, Tengfei

2014-01-01

The amount, frequency, and duration of precipitation have important impact on the occurrence and severity of forest fires. To fully understand the effects of precipitation regimes on forest fires, a drought index was developed with number of consecutive dry days (daily precipitation less than 2 mm) and total precipitation, and the relationships of drought and precipitation with fire activities were investigated over two periods (i.e., 1982-1988 and 1989-2008) in five ecoregions of Yunnan Province. The results showed that precipitation regime had a significant relationship with fire activities during the two periods. However, the influence of the drought on fire activities varied by ecoregions, with more impacts in drier ecoregions IV-V and less impacts in the more humid ecoregions I-III. The drought was more closely related to fire activities than precipitation during the two study periods, especially in the drier ecoregions, indicating that the frequency and the duration of precipitation had significant influences on forest fires in the drier areas. Drought appears to offer a better explanation than total precipitation on temporal changes in fire regimes across the five ecoregions in Yunnan. Our findings have significant implications for forecasting the local fire dangers under the future climate change.

Future Wildfire and Managed Fire Interactions in the Lake Tahoe Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scheller, R.; Kretchun, A.

2017-12-01

Managing large forested landscape in the context of a changing climate and altered disturbance regimes presents new challenges and require integrated assessments of forest disturbance, management, succession, and the carbon cycle. Successful management under these circumstances will require information about trade-offs among multiple objectives and opportunities for spatially optimized landscape-scale management. Improved information about the effects of climate on forest communities, disturbance feedbacks, and the effectiveness of mitigation strategies enables actionable options for landscape managers. We evaluated the effects of fire suppression, wildfires, and forest fuel (thinning) treatments on the long-term carbon storage potential for Lake Tahoe Basin (LTB) forests under various climate futures. We simulated management scenarios that encompass fuel treatments across the larger landscape, beyond the Wildland Urban Interface. We improved upon current fire modeling under climate change via an integrated fire modeling module that, a) explicitly captures the influence of climate, fuels, topography, active fire management (e.g., fire suppression), and fuel treatments, and b) can be parameterized from available data, e.g., remote sensing, field reporting, fire databases, expert opinion. These improvements increase geographic flexibility and decrease reliance on broad historical fire regime statistics - imperfect targets for a no analog future and require minimal parameterization and calibration. We assessed the interactions among fuel treatments, prescribe fire, fire suppression, and stochastically recurring wildfires. Predicted changes in climate and ignition patterns in response to future climatic conditions, vegetation dynamics, and fuel treatments indicate larger potential long-term effects on C emissions, forest structure, and forest composition than prior studies.

Climatic and human controls on the late Holocene fire history of northern Israel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quintana Krupinski, N. B.; Nishri, A.; Street, J. H.; Paytan, A.

2011-12-01

Long-term fire histories provide insight into the effects of climate, ecology and human influence on fire activity. Fire records can be expanded beyond the period of historical record using accumulation rates of large charcoal particles and soot black carbon (BC) in lacustrine sediments: charcoal accumulation peaks indicate local to regional fire events, while increased deposition of BC may document regional-scale burning. To determine which factors exert the greatest control over changes in fire frequency at different times, this study compares late Holocene fire records from Lake Kinneret (the Sea of Galilee), Israel to local and regional records of climate and human activity. We show that fire frequency decreased during the past 3010 years from 3-4 fire events per 400 years between 3010 - 2620 y.b.p. to 0-2 fire events per 400 years from 750 y.b.p. to present. Human modification of the landscape during periods of high population (e.g. forest clearing, agriculture, settlement expansion and industry) appears to have been the greatest contributor to increased fire activity in the semi-arid southern Levant region during the late Holocene, though aridity may also have contributed to higher fire activity. However, during much of the study period, climate and human activity were interrelated, so while human activity may have been the greater control on fire activity, the effect of climate may have been both direct and indirect (through climate-related changes in population), making it sometimes difficult to distinguish the two controls. Projections of increasing aridification of the region combined with a heavy impact on the landscape from a large modern population suggest that increased fire activity may occur in the region in the near future.

Variability, trends, and drivers of regional fluctuations in Australian fire activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Earl, Nick; Simmonds, Ian

2017-07-01

Throughout the world fire regimes are determined by climate, vegetation, and anthropogenic factors, and they have great spatial and temporal variability. The availability of high-quality satellite data has revolutionized fire monitoring, allowing for a more consistent and comprehensive evaluation of temporal and spatial patterns. Here we utilize a satellite based "active fire" (AF) product to statistically analyze 2001-2015 variability and trends in Australian fire activity and link this to precipitation and large-scale atmospheric structures (namely, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)) known to have potential for predicting fire activity in different regions. It is found that Australian fire activity is decreasing (during summer (December-February)) or stable, with high temporal and spatial variability. Eastern New South Wales (NSW) has the strongest decreasing trend (to the 1% confidence level), especially during the winter (JJA) season. Other significantly decreasing areas are Victoria/NSW, Tasmania, and South-east Queensland. These decreasing fire regions are relatively highly populated, so we suggest that the declining trends are due to improved fire management, reducing the size and duration of bush fires. Almost half of all Australian AFs occur during spring (September-November). We show that there is considerable potential throughout Australia for a skillful forecast for future season fire activity based on current and previous precipitation activity, ENSO phase, and to a lesser degree, the IOD phase. This is highly variable, depending on location, e.g., the IOD phase is for more indicative of fire activity in southwest Western Australia than for Queensland.

Modeling fire occurrence as a function of landscape

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loboda, T. V.; Carroll, M.; DiMiceli, C.

2011-12-01

Wildland fire is a prominent component of ecosystem functioning worldwide. Nearly all ecosystems experience the impact of naturally occurring or anthropogenically driven fire. Here, we present a spatially explicit and regionally parameterized Fire Occurrence Model (FOM) aimed at developing fire occurrence estimates at landscape and regional scales. The model provides spatially explicit scenarios of fire occurrence based on the available records from fire management agencies, satellite observations, and auxiliary geospatial data sets. Fire occurrence is modeled as a function of the risk of ignition, potential fire behavior, and fire weather using internal regression tree-driven algorithms and empirically established, regionally derived relationships between fire occurrence, fire behavior, and fire weather. The FOM presents a flexible modeling structure with a set of internal globally available default geospatial independent and dependent variables. However, the flexible modeling environment adapts to ingest a variable number, resolution, and content of inputs provided by the user to supplement or replace the default parameters to improve the model's predictive capability. A Southern California FOM instance (SC FOM) was developed using satellite assessments of fire activity from a suite of Landsat and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite data, Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity fire perimeters, and auxiliary geospatial information including land use and ownership, utilities, transportation routes, and the Remote Automated Weather Station data records. The model was parameterized based on satellite data acquired between 2001 and 2009 and fire management fire perimeters available prior to 2009. SC FOM predictive capabilities were assessed using observed fire occurrence available from the MODIS active fire product during 2010. The results show that SC FOM provides a realistic estimate of fire occurrence at the landscape level: the fraction of area impacted by fire from the total available area within a given value of the Fire Occurrence Index (FOI) increased from 9.e-06 at FOI < 3 to 28.e-06 at 25 < FOI <= 28. Additionally, the model has revealed a new important relationship between fire occurrence, anthropogenic activity, and fire weather. Data analysis has demonstrated that human activity can alter the expected weather/fire occurrence relationships and result in considerable modifications of fire regimes contrary to the assumed ecological parameters. Specifically, between 2001 and 2009 over 50% of total fire impacted area burned during the low fire danger conditions (Canadian Fire Weather Index < 5). These findings and the FOM capabilities offer a new theoretical construct and an advanced tool for assessing the potential impacts of climate changes on fire regimes, particularly within landscapes which are impacted strongly by human activities. Future development of the FOM will focus on ingesting and internal downscaling of climate variables produced by General or Regional Circulation Models to develop scenarios of potential future change in fire occurrence under the influence of projected climate change at the appropriate regional or landscape scales.

Climate change, fire management, and ecological services in the southwestern US

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hurteau, Matthew D.; Bradford, John B.; Fulé, Peter Z.; Taylor, Alan H.; Martin, Katherine L.

2014-01-01

The diverse forest types of the southwestern US are inseparable from fire. Across climate zones in California, Nevada, Arizona, and New Mexico, fire suppression has left many forest types out of sync with their historic fire regimes. As a result, high fuel loads place them at risk of severe fire, particularly as fire activity increases due to climate change. A legacy of fire exclusion coupled with a warming climate has led to increasingly large and severe wildfires in many southwest forest types. Climate change projections include an extended fire season length due to earlier snowmelt and a general drying trend due to rising temperatures. This suggests the future will be warmer and drier regardless of changes in precipitation. Hotter, drier conditions are likely to increase forest flammability, at least initially. Changes in climate alone have the potential to alter the distribution of vegetation types within the region, and climate-driven shifts in vegetation distribution are likely to be accelerated when coupled with stand-replacing fire. Regardless of the rate of change, the interaction of climate and fire and their effects on Southwest ecosystems will alter the provisioning of ecosystem services, including carbon storage and biodiversity. Interactions between climate, fire, and vegetation growth provide a source of great uncertainty in projecting future fire activity in the region, as post-fire forest recovery is strongly influenced by climate and subsequent fire frequency. Severe fire can be mitigated with fuels management including prescribed fire, thinning, and wildfire management, but new strategies are needed to ensure the effectiveness of treatments across landscapes. We review the current understanding of the relationship between fire and climate in the Southwest, both historical and projected. We then discuss the potential implications of climate change for fire management and examine the potential effects of climate change and fire on ecosystem services. We conclude with an assessment of the role of fire management in an increasingly flammable Southwest.

Effects of biotic feedback and harvest management on boreal forest fire activity under climate change.

PubMed

Krawchuk, Meg A; Cumming, Steve G

2011-01-01

Predictions of future fire activity over Canada's boreal forests have primarily been generated from climate data following assumptions that direct effects of weather will stand alone in contributing to changes in burning. However, this assumption needs explicit testing. First, areas recently burned can be less likely to burn again in the near term, and this endogenous regulation suggests the potential for self-limiting, negative biotic feedback to regional climate-driven increases in fire. Second, forest harvest is ongoing, and resulting changes in vegetation structure have been shown to affect fire activity. Consequently, we tested the assumption that fire activity will be driven by changes in fire weather without regulation by biotic feedback or regional harvest-driven changes in vegetation structure in the mixedwood boreal forest of Alberta, Canada, using a simulation experiment that includes the interaction of fire, stand dynamics, climate change, and clear cut harvest management. We found that climate change projected with fire weather indices calculated from the Canadian Regional Climate Model increased fire activity, as expected, and our simulations established evidence that the magnitude of regional increase in fire was sufficient to generate negative feedback to subsequent fire activity. We illustrate a 39% (1.39-fold) increase in fire initiation and 47% (1.47-fold) increase in area burned when climate and stand dynamics were included in simulations, yet 48% (1.48-fold) and 61% (1.61-fold) increases, respectively, when climate was considered alone. Thus, although biotic feedbacks reduced burned area estimates in important ways, they were secondary to the direct effect of climate on fire. We then show that ongoing harvest management in this region changed landscape composition in a way that led to reduced fire activity, even in the context of climate change. Although forest harvesting resulted in decreased regional fire activity when compared to unharvested conditions, forest composition and age structure was shifted substantially, illustrating a trade-off between management goals to minimize fire and conservation goals to emulate natural disturbance.

The Impact of Precipitation Regimes on Forest Fires in Yunnan Province, Southwest China

PubMed Central

Chen, Feng; Niu, Shukui; Tong, Xiaojuan; Zhao, Jinlong; Sun, Yu; He, Tengfei

2014-01-01

The amount, frequency, and duration of precipitation have important impact on the occurrence and severity of forest fires. To fully understand the effects of precipitation regimes on forest fires, a drought index was developed with number of consecutive dry days (daily precipitation less than 2 mm) and total precipitation, and the relationships of drought and precipitation with fire activities were investigated over two periods (i.e., 1982–1988 and 1989–2008) in five ecoregions of Yunnan Province. The results showed that precipitation regime had a significant relationship with fire activities during the two periods. However, the influence of the drought on fire activities varied by ecoregions, with more impacts in drier ecoregions IV-V and less impacts in the more humid ecoregions I–III. The drought was more closely related to fire activities than precipitation during the two study periods, especially in the drier ecoregions, indicating that the frequency and the duration of precipitation had significant influences on forest fires in the drier areas. Drought appears to offer a better explanation than total precipitation on temporal changes in fire regimes across the five ecoregions in Yunnan. Our findings have significant implications for forecasting the local fire dangers under the future climate change. PMID:25243208

Fire and climate suitability for woody vegetation communities in the south central United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stroh, Esther; Struckhoff, Matthew; Stambaugh, Michael C.; Guyette, Richard P.

2018-01-01

using a physical chemistry fire frequency model. We then used the fire probability data with additional climate parameters to construct maximum entropy environmental suitability models for three south central US vegetation communities. The modeled communities included an oak type (dominated by post oak, Quercus stellata Wangenh., and blackjack oak, Q. marilandica Münchh.), a mesquite type (dominated by honey mesquite, Prosopis glandulosa Torr., and velvet mesquite, P. velutina Wooton), and a pinyon−juniper type (dominated by pinyon pine, Pinus edulis Engelm., and Utah juniper, Juniperus osteosperma [Torr.] Little). We mapped baseline and future mean fire-climate suitability using data from three global climate models for 2040 to 2069 and 2070 to 2099; we also mapped future locations of threshold conditions for which all three models agreed on suitability for each community. Future projections included northward, southward, and eastward shifts in suitable conditions for the oaks along a broad path of fire-climate stability; an overall reduction in suitable area for historic mesquite communities coupled with potential expansion to new areas; and constriction and isolation of suitable conditions for pinyon−juniper communities. The inclusion of fire probability adds an important driver of vegetation distribution to climate envelope modeling. The simple models showed good fit, but future projections failed to account for future management activities or land use changes. Results provided information on potential future de-coupling and spatial re-arrangement of environmental conditions under which these communities have historically persisted and been managed. In particular, consensus threshold maps can inform long-term planning for maintenance or restoration of these communities, and they can be used as a potential tool for other communities in fire-prone environments within the study area and beyond its borders.

Moving beyond traditional fire management practices to better minimize community vulnerability to wildfire in southern California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Syphard, A. D.; Keeley, J. E.; Brennan, T. J.

2010-12-01

Wildfires are an important natural process in southern California, but they also present a major hazard for human life and property. The region leads the nation in fire-related losses, and since 2001, wildfires have damaged or destroyed more than 10,000 homes. As human ignitions have increased along with urban development and population growth, fire frequency has also surged, and most home losses occur in large fires when ignitions coincide with Santa Ana windstorms. As the region accommodates more growth in the future, the wildfire threat promises to continue. We will thus explore how a broader, more comprehensive approach to fire management could improve upon traditional approaches for reducing community vulnerability. The traditional approach to mitigating fire risk, in addition to fire suppression, has been to reduce fuel through construction of fuel breaks. Despite increasing expenditure on these treatments, there has been little empirical study of their role in controlling large fires. We will present the results of a study in which we constructed and analyzed a spatial database of fuel breaks in southern California national forests. Our objective was to better understand characteristics of fuel breaks that affect the behavior of large fires and to map where fires and fuel breaks most commonly intersect. We found that fires stopped at fuel breaks 22-47% of the time, depending on the forest, and the reason fires stopped was invariably related to firefighter access and management activities. Fire weather and fuel break condition were also important. The study illustrates the importance of strategic location of fuel breaks because they have been most effective where they provided access for firefighting activities. While fuel breaks have played a role in controlling wildfires at the Wildland Urban Interface, we are evaluating alternative approaches for reducing community vulnerability, including land use planning. Recent research shows that the amount and spatial arrangement of human infrastructure, such as roads and housing developments, strongly influences wildfire patterns. Therefore, we hypothesize that the spatial arrangement and location of housing development is likely to affect the susceptibility of lives and property to fire. In other words, potential for urban loss may be greatest at specific housing densities, spatial patterns of development, and locations of development. If these risk factors can be identified, mapped, and modeled, it is possible that vulnerability to wildfire could be substantially minimized through careful planning for future development - especially because future development will likely increase the region’s fire risk. To address these possibilities, we are evaluating past housing loss in relation to land use planning, in conjunction with other variables that influence fire patterns. We are also exploring alternative future scenarios to identify optimum land use planning strategies for minimizing fire risk.

Gran Sabana fires (SE Venezuela): a paleoecological perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Montoya, Encarni; Rull, Valentí

2011-11-01

Fires are among the most important risks for tropical ecosystems in a future climatic change scenario. Recently, paleoecological research has been addressed to discern the role played by fire in neotropical landscapes. However, given the magnitude of the Neotropics, many studies are relegated to infer just local trends. Here we present the compilation of the paleo-fire records developed until now in the southern Gran Sabana (SE Venezuela) with the aim to describe the fire history as well as to infer the possible forcing factors implied. In this sense, southern Gran Sabana has been under fire perturbation since the Lateglacial, with the concomitant effects upon vegetation, and persisted during the Holocene. Around 2000 cal yr BP onwards, the fire activity highly increased promoting the expansion of pre-existing savannas, the decrease of forests and the appearance and establishment of Mauritia palm swamps. The continuous fire incidence registered for several thousands of years has likely promoted the supremacy of treeless savannas upon other vegetation types and the degradation to secondary landscapes. Based on the available evidence, the anthropogenic nature of this high fire activity has been postulated. If so, it could be hypothesized that the timing arrival of Pemón, the present-day indigenous culture in the Gran Sabana, would be ca 2000 cal yr BP onwards, rather than the last centuries, as it has been formerly assumed. The implications of these ancient practices in the area are also discussed for present Gran Sabana landscapes sustainability and future conservation strategies.

Effectiveness of mechanical thinning and prescribed burning on fire behavior in Pinus nigra forests in NE Spain.

PubMed

Piqué, Míriam; Domènech, Rut

2018-03-15

Fuel treatments can mitigate present and future impacts of climate change by reducing fire intensity and severity. In recent years, Pinus nigra forests in the Mediterranean basin have been dramatically affected by the new risk of highly intense and extreme fires and its distribution area has been reduced. New tools are necessary for assessing the management of these forests so they can adapt to the challenges to come. Our main goal was to evaluate the effects of different fuel treatments on Mediterranean Pinus nigra forests. We assessed the forest response, in terms of forest structure and fire behavior, to different intensities of low thinning treatments followed by different slash prescriptions (resulting in: light thinning and lop and scatter; light thinning and burn; heavy thinning and lop and scatter; heavy thinning and burn; and, untreated control). Treatments that used fire to decrease the resulting slash were the most effective for reducing active crown fires decreasing the rate of spread and flame length more than 89%. Low thinning had an effect on torching potential, but there was no difference between intensities of thinning. Only an outcoming crown fire could spread actively if it was sustained by a high-enough constant wind speed and enough surface fuel load. Overall, treatments reduce fire intensity and treated areas have a more homogenous fire behavior response than untreated areas. This provides opportunities to extinguish the fire and reduce the probability of trees dying from the fire. It would be helpful to include ecological principles and fire behavior criteria in silvicultural treatment guidelines in order to perform more efficient management techniques in the future. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Satellite-based Assessment of Climate Controls on US Burned Area

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morton, D. C.; Collatz, G. J.; Wang, D.; Randerson, J. T.; Giglio, L.; Chen, Y.

2012-01-01

Climate regulates fire activity through the buildup and drying of fuels and the conditions for fire ignition and spread. Understanding the dynamics of contemporary climate-fire relationships at national and sub-national scales is critical to assess the likelihood of changes in future fire activity and the potential options for mitigation and adaptation. Here, we conducted the first national assessment of climate controls on US fire activity using two satellite-based estimates of monthly burned area (BA), the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED, 1997 2010) and Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity (MTBS, 1984 2009) BA products. For each US National Climate Assessment (NCA) region, we analyzed the relationships between monthly BA and potential evaporation (PE) derived from reanalysis climate data at 0.5 resolution. US fire activity increased over the past 25 yr, with statistically significant increases in MTBS BA for entire US and the Southeast and Southwest NCA regions. Monthly PE was strongly correlated with US fire activity, yet the climate driver of PE varied regionally. Fire season temperature and shortwave radiation were the primary controls on PE and fire activity in the Alaska, while water deficit (precipitation PE) was strongly correlated with fire activity in the Plains regions and Northwest US. BA and precipitation anomalies were negatively correlated in all regions, although fuel-limited ecosystems in the Southern Plains and Southwest exhibited positive correlations with longer lead times (6 12 months). Fire season PE in creased from the 1980s 2000s, enhancing climate-driven fire risk in the southern and western US where PE-BA correlations were strongest. Spatial and temporal patterns of increasing fire season PE and BA during the 1990s 2000s highlight the potential sensitivity of US fire activity to climate change in coming decades. However, climatefire relationships at the national scale are complex, based on the diversity of fire types, ecosystems, and ignition sources within each NCA region. Changes in the seasonality or magnitude of climate anomalies are therefore unlikely to result in uniform changes in US fire activity.

The Global Geostationary Wildfire ABBA: Current Implementation and Future Plans

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prins, E.; Schmidt, C. C.; Hoffman, J.; Brunner, J.; Hyer, E. J.; Reid, J. S.

2012-12-01

The Wild Fire Automated Biomass Burning Algorithm (WF_ABBA), developed at the Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CIMSS), has a long legacy of operational near real-time wildfire detection and characterization in the Western Hemisphere. The first phase of the global geostationary WF_ABBA was made operational at NOAA NESDIS in 2009 and currently includes diurnal active fire monitoring from GOES-East, GOES-South America, GOES-West, Meteosat-9 and MTSAT-1R/-2. This allows for near global active fire monitoring with coverage of Europe, Africa, Southeast Asia and the Western Pacific utilizing distinct geostationary sensors and a consistent algorithm. Version 6.5.006 of the WF_ABBA was specifically designed to address the capabilities and limitations of diverse geostationary sensors and requests from the global fire monitoring and user community. This presentation will provide an overview of version 6.5.006 of the global WF_ABBA fire product including the new fire and opaque cloud mask and associated metadata. We will demonstrate the WF_ABBA showing examples from around the globe with a focus on the capabilities and plans for integrating new geostationary platforms with coverage of Eastern Europe and Asia (INSAT-3D, Korean COMS, Russian GOMS Elektro-L MSU-GS). We are also preparing for future fire monitoring in the Western Hemisphere, Europe, and Africa utilizing the next generation GOES-R Imager and Meteosat Third Generation Flexible Combined Imager (MTG - FCI). The goal is to create a globally consistent long-term fire product utilizing the capabilities of each of these unique operational systems and a common fire detection algorithm. On an international level, development of a global geostationary fire monitoring system is supported by the IGOS GOFC/GOLD Fire Implementation Team. This work also generally supports Committee on Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS) activities and the Group on Earth Observations (GEO).

Resistance of the boreal forest to high burn rates.

PubMed

Héon, Jessie; Arseneault, Dominique; Parisien, Marc-André

2014-09-23

Boreal ecosystems and their large carbon stocks are strongly shaped by extensive wildfires. Coupling climate projections with records of area burned during the last 3 decades across the North American boreal zone suggests that area burned will increase by 30-500% by the end of the 21st century, with a cascading effect on ecosystem dynamics and on the boreal carbon balance. Fire size and the frequency of large-fire years are both expected to increase. However, how fire size and time since previous fire will influence future burn rates is poorly understood, mostly because of incomplete records of past fire overlaps. Here, we reconstruct the length of overlapping fires along a 190-km-long transect during the last 200 y in one of the most fire-prone boreal regions of North America to document how fire size and time since previous fire will influence future fire recurrence. We provide direct field evidence that extreme burn rates can be sustained by a few occasional droughts triggering immense fires. However, we also show that the most fire-prone areas of the North American boreal forest are resistant to high burn rates because of overabundant young forest stands, thereby creating a fuel-mediated negative feedback on fire activity. These findings will help refine projections of fire effect on boreal ecosystems and their large carbon stocks.

Resistance of the boreal forest to high burn rates

PubMed Central

Héon, Jessie; Arseneault, Dominique; Parisien, Marc-André

2014-01-01

Boreal ecosystems and their large carbon stocks are strongly shaped by extensive wildfires. Coupling climate projections with records of area burned during the last 3 decades across the North American boreal zone suggests that area burned will increase by 30–500% by the end of the 21st century, with a cascading effect on ecosystem dynamics and on the boreal carbon balance. Fire size and the frequency of large-fire years are both expected to increase. However, how fire size and time since previous fire will influence future burn rates is poorly understood, mostly because of incomplete records of past fire overlaps. Here, we reconstruct the length of overlapping fires along a 190-km-long transect during the last 200 y in one of the most fire-prone boreal regions of North America to document how fire size and time since previous fire will influence future fire recurrence. We provide direct field evidence that extreme burn rates can be sustained by a few occasional droughts triggering immense fires. However, we also show that the most fire-prone areas of the North American boreal forest are resistant to high burn rates because of overabundant young forest stands, thereby creating a fuel-mediated negative feedback on fire activity. These findings will help refine projections of fire effect on boreal ecosystems and their large carbon stocks. PMID:25201981

The effect of fire and permafrost interactions on soil carbon accumulation in an upland black spruce ecosystem of interior Alaska: Implications for post-thaw carbon loss

USGS Publications Warehouse

O'Donnell, J. A.; Harden, J.W.; McGuire, A.D.; Kanevskiy, M.Z.; Jorgenson, M.T.; Xu, X.

2011-01-01

High-latitude regions store large amounts of organic carbon (OC) in active-layer soils and permafrost, accounting for nearly half of the global belowground OC pool. In the boreal region, recent warming has promoted changes in the fire regime, which may exacerbate rates of permafrost thaw and alter soil OC dynamics in both organic and mineral soil. We examined how interactions between fire and permafrost govern rates of soil OC accumulation in organic horizons, mineral soil of the active layer, and near-surface permafrost in a black spruce ecosystem of interior Alaska. To estimate OC accumulation rates, we used chronosequence, radiocarbon, and modeling approaches. We also developed a simple model to track long-term changes in soil OC stocks over past fire cycles and to evaluate the response of OC stocks to future changes in the fire regime. Our chronosequence and radiocarbon data indicate that OC turnover varies with soil depth, with fastest turnover occurring in shallow organic horizons (~60 years) and slowest turnover in near-surface permafrost (>3000 years). Modeling analysis indicates that OC accumulation in organic horizons was strongly governed by carbon losses via combustion and burial of charred remains in deep organic horizons. OC accumulation in mineral soil was influenced by active layer depth, which determined the proportion of mineral OC in a thawed or frozen state and thus, determined loss rates via decomposition. Our model results suggest that future changes in fire regime will result in substantial reductions in OC stocks, largely from the deep organic horizon. Additional OC losses will result from fire-induced thawing of near-surface permafrost. From these findings, we conclude that the vulnerability of deep OC stocks to future warming is closely linked to the sensitivity of permafrost to wildfire disturbance. ?? 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Future climate change drives increases in forest fires and summertime OC concentrations in the Western U.S.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spracklen, D. V.; Logan, J. A.; Mickley, L. J.; Park, R. J.; Flannigan, M. D.; Westerling, A. L.

2006-12-01

Increased forest fire activity in the Western United States appears to be driven by increasing spring and summer temperatures. Here we make a first estimate of how climate-driven changes in fire activity will influence summertime organic carbon (OC) concentrations in the Western US. We use output from a general circulation model (GCM) combined with area burned regressions to predict how area burned will change between present day and 2050. Calculated area burned is used to create future emission estimates for the Western U.S. and we use a global chemical transport model (CTM) to predict future changes in OC concentrations. Stepwise linear regression is used to determine the best relationships between observed area burned for 1980- 2004 and variables chosen from temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, rainfall and drought indices from the Candaian Fire Weather Index Model. Best predictors are ecosytem dependent but typically include mean summer temperature and mean drought code. In forest ecosystems of the Western U.S. our regressions explain 50-60% of the variance in annual area burned. Between 2000 and 2050 increases in temperature and reductions in precipitation, as predicted by the GISS GCM, cause mean area burned in the western U.S. to increase by 30-55%. We use the GEOS-Chem CTM to show that these increased emissions result in an increase in summertime western U.S. OC concentrations by 55% over current concentrations. Our results show that the predicted increase in future wild fires will have important consequences for western US air quality and visibility.

Modelling the role of fires in the terrestrial carbon balance by incorporating SPITFIRE into the global vegetation model ORCHIDEE - Part 2: Carbon emissions and the role of fires in the global carbon balance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yue, C.; Ciais, P.; Cadule, P.; Thonicke, K.; van Leeuwen, T. T.

2015-05-01

Carbon dioxide emissions from wild and anthropogenic fires return the carbon absorbed by plants to the atmosphere, and decrease the sequestration of carbon by land ecosystems. Future climate warming will likely increase the frequency of fire-triggering drought, so that the future terrestrial carbon uptake will depend on how fires respond to altered climate variation. In this study, we modelled the role of fires in the global terrestrial carbon balance for 1901-2012, using the ORCHIDEE global vegetation model equipped with the SPITFIRE model. We conducted two simulations with and without the fire module being activated, using a static land cover. The simulated global fire carbon emissions for 1997-2009 are 2.1 Pg C yr-1, which is close to the 2.0 Pg C yr-1 as estimated by GFED3.1. The simulated land carbon uptake after accounting for emissions for 2003-2012 is 3.1 Pg C yr-1, which is within the uncertainty of the residual carbon sink estimation (2.8 ± 0.8 Pg C yr-1). Fires are found to reduce the terrestrial carbon uptake by 0.32 Pg C yr-1 over 1901-2012, or 20% of the total carbon sink in a world without fire. The fire-induced land sink reduction (SRfire) is significantly correlated with climate variability, with larger sink reduction occurring in warm and dry years, in particular during El Niño events. Our results suggest a "fire respiration partial compensation". During the 10 lowest SRfire years (SRfire = 0.17 Pg C yr-1), fires mainly compensate for the heterotrophic respiration that would occur in a world without fire. By contrast, during the 10 highest SRfire fire years (SRfire = 0.49 Pg C yr-1), fire emissions far exceed their respiration partial compensation and create a larger reduction in terrestrial carbon uptake. Our findings have important implications for the future role of fires in the terrestrial carbon balance, because the capacity of terrestrial ecosystems to sequester carbon will be diminished by future climate change characterized by increased frequency of droughts and extreme El Niño events.

Daily and 3-hourly Variability in Global Fire Emissions and Consequences for Atmospheric Model Predictions of Carbon Monoxide

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mu, M.; Randerson, J. T.; vanderWerf, G. R.; Giglio, L.; Kasibhatla, P.; Morton, D.; Collatz, G. J.; DeFries, R. S.; Hyer, E. J.; Prins, E. M.;

The impact of a 2 X CO2 climate on lightning-caused fires

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Price, Colin; Rind, David

1994-01-01

Future climate change could have significant repercussions for lightning-caused wildfires. Two empirical fire models are presented relating the frequency of lightning fires and the area burned by these fires to the effective precipitation and the frequency of thunderstorm activity. One model deals with the seasonal variations in lightning fires, while the second model deals with the interannual variations of lightning fires. These fire models are then used with the Goddard Institute for Space Studies General Circulation Model to investigate possible changes in fire frequency and area burned in a 2 X CO2 climate. In the United States, the annual mean number of lightning fires increases by 44%, while the area burned increases by 78%. On a global scale, the largest increase in lightning fires can be expected in untouched tropical ecosystems where few natural fires occur today.

Daily and Hourly Variability in Global Fire Emissions and Consequences for Atmospheric Model Predictions of Carbon Monoxide

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mu, M.; Randerson, J. T.; van der Werf, G. R.; Giglio, L.; Kasibhatla, P.; Morton, D.; Collatz, G. J.; DeFries, R. S.; Hyer, E. J.; Prins, E. M.;

A data-driven approach to identify controls on global fire activity from satellite and climate observations (SOFIA V1)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Forkel, Matthias; Dorigo, Wouter; Lasslop, Gitta; Teubner, Irene; Chuvieco, Emilio; Thonicke, Kirsten

2017-12-01

Vegetation fires affect human infrastructures, ecosystems, global vegetation distribution, and atmospheric composition. However, the climatic, environmental, and socioeconomic factors that control global fire activity in vegetation are only poorly understood, and in various complexities and formulations are represented in global process-oriented vegetation-fire models. Data-driven model approaches such as machine learning algorithms have successfully been used to identify and better understand controlling factors for fire activity. However, such machine learning models cannot be easily adapted or even implemented within process-oriented global vegetation-fire models. To overcome this gap between machine learning-based approaches and process-oriented global fire models, we introduce a new flexible data-driven fire modelling approach here (Satellite Observations to predict FIre Activity, SOFIA approach version 1). SOFIA models can use several predictor variables and functional relationships to estimate burned area that can be easily adapted with more complex process-oriented vegetation-fire models. We created an ensemble of SOFIA models to test the importance of several predictor variables. SOFIA models result in the highest performance in predicting burned area if they account for a direct restriction of fire activity under wet conditions and if they include a land cover-dependent restriction or allowance of fire activity by vegetation density and biomass. The use of vegetation optical depth data from microwave satellite observations, a proxy for vegetation biomass and water content, reaches higher model performance than commonly used vegetation variables from optical sensors. We further analyse spatial patterns of the sensitivity between anthropogenic, climate, and vegetation predictor variables and burned area. We finally discuss how multiple observational datasets on climate, hydrological, vegetation, and socioeconomic variables together with data-driven modelling and model-data integration approaches can guide the future development of global process-oriented vegetation-fire models.

A hydroclimatic model of global fire patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boer, Matthias

2015-04-01

Satellite-based earth observation is providing an increasingly accurate picture of global fire patterns. The highest fire activity is observed in seasonally dry (sub-)tropical environments of South America, Africa and Australia, but fires occur with varying frequency, intensity and seasonality in almost all biomes on Earth. The particular combination of these fire characteristics, or fire regime, is known to emerge from the combined influences of climate, vegetation, terrain and land use, but has so far proven difficult to reproduce by global models. Uncertainty about the biophysical drivers and constraints that underlie current global fire patterns is propagated in model predictions of how ecosystems, fire regimes and biogeochemical cycles may respond to projected future climates. Here, I present a hydroclimatic model of global fire patterns that predicts the mean annual burned area fraction (F) of 0.25° x 0.25° grid cells as a function of the climatic water balance. Following Bradstock's four-switch model, long-term fire activity levels were assumed to be controlled by fuel productivity rates and the likelihood that the extant fuel is dry enough to burn. The frequency of ignitions and favourable fire weather were assumed to be non-limiting at long time scales. Fundamentally, fuel productivity and fuel dryness are a function of the local water and energy budgets available for the production and desiccation of plant biomass. The climatic water balance summarizes the simultaneous availability of biologically usable energy and water at a site, and may therefore be expected to explain a significant proportion of global variation in F. To capture the effect of the climatic water balance on fire activity I focused on the upper quantiles of F, i.e. the maximum level of fire activity for a given climatic water balance. Analysing GFED4 data for annual burned area together with gridded climate data, I found that nearly 80% of the global variation in the 0.99 quantile of F (i.e. F_0.99 ) was explained by two terms of the climatic water balance: i) mean annual actual evapotranspiration (AET), which is a proxy for fuel productivity, and ii) mean annual water deficit (D=PET-AET, where PET is mean annual potential evapotranspiration), which is a measure of fuel drying potential. As expected, F_0.99 was close to zero in environments of low AET (e.g. deserts) or low D (e.g. wet forests), due to strong fuel productivity or fuel dryness constraints, and maximum for environments of intermediate AET and D (e.g. tropical savannas). The topography of the F_0.99 response surface was analysed to explore how the relative importance of fuel productivity and fuel dryness constraints varied with the climatic water balance, and geographically across the continents. Consistent with current understanding of global pyrogeography, the hydroclimatic fire model predicted that fire activity is mostly constrained by fuel productivity in arid environments with grassy fuels and by fuel dryness in humid environments with litter fuels derived from woody shrubs and trees. The model provides a simple, yet biophysically-based, approach to evaluating potential for incremental change in fire activity or transformational change in fire types under future climate conditions.

Reconstruction of fire regimes through integrated paleoecological proxy data and ecological modeling.

PubMed

Iglesias, Virginia; Yospin, Gabriel I; Whitlock, Cathy

2014-01-01

Fire is a key ecological process affecting vegetation dynamics and land cover. The characteristic frequency, size, and intensity of fire are driven by interactions between top-down climate-driven and bottom-up fuel-related processes. Disentangling climatic from non-climatic drivers of past fire regimes is a grand challenge in Earth systems science, and a topic where both paleoecology and ecological modeling have made substantial contributions. In this manuscript, we (1) review the use of sedimentary charcoal as a fire proxy and the methods used in charcoal-based fire history reconstructions; (2) identify existing techniques for paleoecological modeling; and (3) evaluate opportunities for coupling of paleoecological and ecological modeling approaches to better understand the causes and consequences of past, present, and future fire activity.

Reconstruction of fire regimes through integrated paleoecological proxy data and ecological modeling

PubMed Central

Iglesias, Virginia; Yospin, Gabriel I.; Whitlock, Cathy

2015-01-01

Fire is a key ecological process affecting vegetation dynamics and land cover. The characteristic frequency, size, and intensity of fire are driven by interactions between top-down climate-driven and bottom-up fuel-related processes. Disentangling climatic from non-climatic drivers of past fire regimes is a grand challenge in Earth systems science, and a topic where both paleoecology and ecological modeling have made substantial contributions. In this manuscript, we (1) review the use of sedimentary charcoal as a fire proxy and the methods used in charcoal-based fire history reconstructions; (2) identify existing techniques for paleoecological modeling; and (3) evaluate opportunities for coupling of paleoecological and ecological modeling approaches to better understand the causes and consequences of past, present, and future fire activity. PMID:25657652

Wildland fire management policy: Learning from the past and present and responding to future challenges

Treesearch

Tom Zimmerman

2009-01-01

Since its origin as a defined functional activity, wildland fire management has been the natural resource management program with the highest risk, complexity, and greatest potential for serious negative outcomes. During this time, this program has continually grown in temporal and spatial extent, operational complexity, ecological significance, social, economic, and...

Fire, climate and vegetation linkages in the Bolivian Chiquitano seasonally dry tropical forest.

PubMed

Power, M J; Whitney, B S; Mayle, F E; Neves, D M; de Boer, E J; Maclean, K S

2016-06-05

South American seasonally dry tropical forests (SDTFs) are critically endangered, with only a small proportion of their original distribution remaining. This paper presents a 12 000 year reconstruction of climate change, fire and vegetation dynamics in the Bolivian Chiquitano SDTF, based upon pollen and charcoal analysis, to examine the resilience of this ecosystem to drought and fire. Our analysis demonstrates a complex relationship between climate, fire and floristic composition over multi-millennial time scales, and reveals that moisture variability is the dominant control upon community turnover in this ecosystem. Maximum drought during the Early Holocene, consistent with regional drought reconstructions, correlates with a period of significant fire activity between 8000 and 7000 cal yr BP which resulted in a decrease in SDTF diversity. As fire activity declined but severe regional droughts persisted through the Middle Holocene, SDTFs, including Anadenanthera and Astronium, became firmly established in the Bolivian lowlands. The trend of decreasing fire activity during the last two millennia promotes the idea among forest ecologists that SDTFs are threatened by fire. Our analysis shows that the Chiquitano seasonally dry biome has been more resilient to Holocene changes in climate and fire regime than previously assumed, but raises questions over whether this resilience will continue in the future under increased temperatures and drought coupled with a higher frequency anthropogenic fire regime.This article is part of the themed issue 'The interaction of fire and mankind'. © 2016 The Author(s).

Fire, climate and vegetation linkages in the Bolivian Chiquitano seasonally dry tropical forest

PubMed Central

Power, M. J.; Whitney, B. S.; Mayle, F. E.; Neves, D. M.; de Boer, E. J.; Maclean, K. S.

2016-01-01

South American seasonally dry tropical forests (SDTFs) are critically endangered, with only a small proportion of their original distribution remaining. This paper presents a 12 000 year reconstruction of climate change, fire and vegetation dynamics in the Bolivian Chiquitano SDTF, based upon pollen and charcoal analysis, to examine the resilience of this ecosystem to drought and fire. Our analysis demonstrates a complex relationship between climate, fire and floristic composition over multi-millennial time scales, and reveals that moisture variability is the dominant control upon community turnover in this ecosystem. Maximum drought during the Early Holocene, consistent with regional drought reconstructions, correlates with a period of significant fire activity between 8000 and 7000 cal yr BP which resulted in a decrease in SDTF diversity. As fire activity declined but severe regional droughts persisted through the Middle Holocene, SDTFs, including Anadenanthera and Astronium, became firmly established in the Bolivian lowlands. The trend of decreasing fire activity during the last two millennia promotes the idea among forest ecologists that SDTFs are threatened by fire. Our analysis shows that the Chiquitano seasonally dry biome has been more resilient to Holocene changes in climate and fire regime than previously assumed, but raises questions over whether this resilience will continue in the future under increased temperatures and drought coupled with a higher frequency anthropogenic fire regime. This article is part of the themed issue ‘The interaction of fire and mankind’. PMID:27216522

Evaluating fire danger in Brazilian biomes: present and future patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silva, Patrícia; Bastos, Ana; DaCamara, Carlos; Libonati, Renata

2017-04-01

Climate change is expected to have a significant impact on fire occurrence and activity, particularly in Brazil, a region known to be fire-prone [1]. The Brazilian savanna, commonly referred to as cerrado, is a fire-adapted biome covering more than 20% of the country's total area. It presents the highest numbers of fire events, making it particularly susceptible to changes in climate. It is thus essential to understand the present fire regimes in Brazilian biomes, in order to better evaluate future patterns. The CPTEC/INPE, the Brazilian Center for Weather Forecasting and Climate Research at the Brazilian National Institute of Space Research developed a fire danger index based on the occurrence of hundreds of thousands of fire events in the main Brazilian biomes [2]: the Meteorological Fire Danger Index (MFDI). This index indicates the predisposition of vegetation to be burned on a given day, for given climate conditions preceding that day. It relies on daily values of air temperature, relative humidity, accumulated precipitation and vegetation cover. In this study we aim to access the capability of the MFDI to accurately replicate present fire conditions for different biomes, with a special focus on cerrado. To this end, we assess the link between the MFDI as calculated by three different reanalysis (ERA-Interim, NCEP/DOE Reanalysis 2 and MERRA-2) and the observed burned area. We further calculate the validated MFDI using a regional climate model, the RCA4 as forced by EC-Earth from CORDEX, to understand the ability of the model to characterize present fire danger. Finally, the need to calibrate the model to better characterize future fire danger was also evaluated. This work was developed within the framework of the Brazilian Fire-Land-Atmosphere System (BrFLAS) Project financed by the Portuguese and Brazilian science foundations, FCT and FAPESP (project references FAPESP/1389/2014 and 2014/20042-2). [1] KRAWCHUK, M.A.; MORITZ, M.A.; PARISIEN, M.A.; VAN DORN, J.; HAYHOE, K. Global Pyrogeography: the Current and Future Distribution of Wildfire. PLOS ONE, v. 4, n. 4, e5102, 2009. [2] SETZER, A.W.; SISMANOGLU, R.A. Risco de Fogo: Metodologia do Cálculo - Descrição sucinta da Versão 9. Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE), 2012. Available at: . Accessed on: 10 jan. 2017.

The relationship between particulate pollution levels in Australian cities, meteorology, and landscape fire activity detected from MODIS hotspots.

PubMed

Price, Owen F; Williamson, Grant J; Henderson, Sarah B; Johnston, Fay; Bowman, David M J S

2012-01-01

Smoke from bushfires is an emerging issue for fire managers because of increasing evidence for its public health effects. Development of forecasting models to predict future pollution levels based on the relationship between bushfire activity and current pollution levels would be a useful management tool. As a first step, we use daily thermal anomalies detected by the MODIS Active Fire Product (referred to as "hotspots"), pollution concentrations, and meteorological data for the years 2002 to 2008, to examine the statistical relationship between fire activity in the landscapes and pollution levels around Perth and Sydney, two large Australian cities. Resultant models were statistically significant, but differed in their goodness of fit and the distance at which the strength of the relationship was strongest. For Sydney, a univariate model for hotspot activity within 100 km explained 24% of variation in pollution levels, and the best model including atmospheric variables explained 56% of variation. For Perth, the best radius was 400 km, explaining only 7% of variation, while the model including atmospheric variables explained 31% of the variation. Pollution was higher when the atmosphere was more stable and in the presence of on-shore winds, whereas there was no effect of wind blowing from the fires toward the pollution monitors. Our analysis shows there is a good prospect for developing region-specific forecasting tools combining hotspot fire activity with meteorological data.

Suomi NPP VIIRS active fire product status

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ellicott, E. A.; Csiszar, I. A.; Schroeder, W.; Giglio, L.; Wind, B.; Justice, C. O.

2012-12-01

We provide an overview of the evaluation and development of the Active Fires product derived from the Visible Infrared Imager Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) sensor on the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (SNPP) satellite during the first year of on-orbit data. Results from the initial evaluation of the standard SNPP Active Fires product, generated by the SNPP Interface Data Processing System (IDPS), supported the stabilization of the VIIRS Sensor Data Record (SDR) product. This activity focused in particular on the processing of the dual-gain 4 micron VIIRS M13 radiometric measurements into 750m aggregated data, which are fundamental for active fire detection. Following the VIIRS SDR product's Beta maturity status in April 2012, correlative analysis between VIIRS and near-simultaneous fire detections from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on the NASA Earth Observing System Aqua satellite confirmed the expected relative detection rates driven primarily by sensor differences. The VIIRS Active Fires Product Development and Validation Team also developed a science code that is based on the latest MODIS Collection 6 algorithm and provides a full spatially explicit fire mask to replace the sparse array output of fire locations from a MODIS Collection 4 equivalent algorithm in the current IDPS product. The Algorithm Development Library (ADL) was used to support the planning for the transition of the science code into IDPS operations in the future. Product evaluation and user outreach was facilitated by a product website that provided end user access to fire data in user-friendly format over North America as well as examples of VIIRS-MODIS comparisons. The VIIRS fire team also developed an experimental product based on 375m VIIRS Imagery band measurements and provided high quality imagery of major fire events in US. By August 2012 the IDPS product achieved Beta maturity, with some known and documented shortfalls related to the processing of incorrect SDR input data and to apparent algorithm deficiencies in select observing and environmental conditions.

The changing strength and nature of fire-climate relationships in the northern Rocky Mountains, U.S.A., 1902-2008

USGS Publications Warehouse

Littell, Jeremy

2015-01-01

Time-varying fire-climate relationships may represent an important component of fire-regime variability, relevant for understanding the controls of fire and projecting fire activity under global-change scenarios. We used time-varying statistical models to evaluate if and how fire-climate relationships varied from 1902-2008, in one of the most flammable forested regions of the western U.S.A. Fire-danger and water-balance metrics yielded the best combination of calibration accuracy and predictive skill in modeling annual area burned. The strength of fire-climate relationships varied markedly at multi-decadal scales, with models explaining < 40% to 88% of the variation in annual area burned. The early 20th century (1902-1942) and the most recent two decades (1985-2008) exhibited strong fire-climate relationships, with weaker relationships for much of the mid 20th century (1943-1984), coincident with diminished burning, less fire-conducive climate, and the initiation of modern fire fighting. Area burned and the strength of fire-climate relationships increased sharply in the mid 1980s, associated with increased temperatures and longer potential fire seasons. Unlike decades with high burning in the early 20th century, models developed using fire-climate relationships from recent decades overpredicted area burned when applied to earlier periods. This amplified response of fire to climate is a signature of altered fire-climate-relationships, and it implicates non-climatic factors in this recent shift. Changes in fuel structure and availability following 40+ yr of unusually low fire activity, and possibly land use, may have resulted in increased fire vulnerability beyond expectations from climatic factors alone. Our results highlight the potential for non-climatic factors to alter fire-climate relationships, and the need to account for such dynamics, through adaptable statistical or processes-based models, for accurately predicting future fire activity.

The Changing Strength and Nature of Fire-Climate Relationships in the Northern Rocky Mountains, U.S.A., 1902-2008

PubMed Central

Higuera, Philip E.; Abatzoglou, John T.; Littell, Jeremy S.; Morgan, Penelope

2015-01-01

Time-varying fire-climate relationships may represent an important component of fire-regime variability, relevant for understanding the controls of fire and projecting fire activity under global-change scenarios. We used time-varying statistical models to evaluate if and how fire-climate relationships varied from 1902-2008, in one of the most flammable forested regions of the western U.S.A. Fire-danger and water-balance metrics yielded the best combination of calibration accuracy and predictive skill in modeling annual area burned. The strength of fire-climate relationships varied markedly at multi-decadal scales, with models explaining < 40% to 88% of the variation in annual area burned. The early 20th century (1902-1942) and the most recent two decades (1985-2008) exhibited strong fire-climate relationships, with weaker relationships for much of the mid 20th century (1943-1984), coincident with diminished burning, less fire-conducive climate, and the initiation of modern fire fighting. Area burned and the strength of fire-climate relationships increased sharply in the mid 1980s, associated with increased temperatures and longer potential fire seasons. Unlike decades with high burning in the early 20th century, models developed using fire-climate relationships from recent decades overpredicted area burned when applied to earlier periods. This amplified response of fire to climate is a signature of altered fire-climate-relationships, and it implicates non-climatic factors in this recent shift. Changes in fuel structure and availability following 40+ yr of unusually low fire activity, and possibly land use, may have resulted in increased fire vulnerability beyond expectations from climatic factors alone. Our results highlight the potential for non-climatic factors to alter fire-climate relationships, and the need to account for such dynamics, through adaptable statistical or processes-based models, for accurately predicting future fire activity. PMID:26114580

The Changing Strength and Nature of Fire-Climate Relationships in the Northern Rocky Mountains, U.S.A., 1902-2008.

PubMed

Higuera, Philip E; Abatzoglou, John T; Littell, Jeremy S; Morgan, Penelope

2015-01-01

Time-varying fire-climate relationships may represent an important component of fire-regime variability, relevant for understanding the controls of fire and projecting fire activity under global-change scenarios. We used time-varying statistical models to evaluate if and how fire-climate relationships varied from 1902-2008, in one of the most flammable forested regions of the western U.S.A. Fire-danger and water-balance metrics yielded the best combination of calibration accuracy and predictive skill in modeling annual area burned. The strength of fire-climate relationships varied markedly at multi-decadal scales, with models explaining < 40% to 88% of the variation in annual area burned. The early 20th century (1902-1942) and the most recent two decades (1985-2008) exhibited strong fire-climate relationships, with weaker relationships for much of the mid 20th century (1943-1984), coincident with diminished burning, less fire-conducive climate, and the initiation of modern fire fighting. Area burned and the strength of fire-climate relationships increased sharply in the mid 1980s, associated with increased temperatures and longer potential fire seasons. Unlike decades with high burning in the early 20th century, models developed using fire-climate relationships from recent decades overpredicted area burned when applied to earlier periods. This amplified response of fire to climate is a signature of altered fire-climate-relationships, and it implicates non-climatic factors in this recent shift. Changes in fuel structure and availability following 40+ yr of unusually low fire activity, and possibly land use, may have resulted in increased fire vulnerability beyond expectations from climatic factors alone. Our results highlight the potential for non-climatic factors to alter fire-climate relationships, and the need to account for such dynamics, through adaptable statistical or processes-based models, for accurately predicting future fire activity.

Striving for balance: maintaining marten habitat while reducing fuels

Treesearch

John Kirkland; Katie Moriarty

2016-01-01

Martens are small forest carnivores associated with dense, mature forests. These important indicators of a forest’s biodiversity are vulnerable to management activities that open the forest canopy or remove downed debris. Many fuel reduction treatment do just that: dense stands of trees are thinned to minimize fire hazard and future fire severity. Until recently, the...

Risk management: Core principles and practices, and their relevance to wildland fire

Treesearch

Matthew P. Thompson; Donald G. MacGregor; Dave Calkin

2016-01-01

The Forest Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture faces a future of increasing complexity and risk, pressing financial issues, and the inescapable possibility of loss of human life. These issues are perhaps most acute for wildland fire management, the highest risk activity in which the Forest Service engages. Risk management (RM) has long been put forth as an...

[The "Mining Rescue System and Mine Fires" Working Group. Tasks, results, future activities].

PubMed

Coenders, A

1983-01-01

The president of the working party presents details of its principal tasks in the past and in the present time. These can be summed up in a study of the problems mentioned below and the subsequent elaboration of recommendations for the benefit of the governments, guidelines, information reports and research proposals. The principal problems that were or are still under study are: --prevention of fires: shaft equipment, hydraulic fluids, belt conveyors, . . .; --detection of mine fires and spontaneous combustion; --fighting of mine fires: shaft fires, construction of stoppings, openings and recovering of fire zones, . . .; --coordination and rescue equipment: escape and rescue breathing apparatus, flameproof clothing, rescue of trapped miners; --stabilization of ventilation in the event of fire, . . . The speaker stresses the importance of the information exchange and the atmosphere of fellowship and solidarity that prevails in the working party.

Defining pyromes and global syndromes of fire regimes.

PubMed

Archibald, Sally; Lehmann, Caroline E R; Gómez-Dans, Jose L; Bradstock, Ross A

2013-04-16

Fire is a ubiquitous component of the Earth system that is poorly understood. To date, a global-scale understanding of fire is largely limited to the annual extent of burning as detected by satellites. This is problematic because fire is multidimensional, and focus on a single metric belies its complexity and importance within the Earth system. To address this, we identified five key characteristics of fire regimes--size, frequency, intensity, season, and extent--and combined new and existing global datasets to represent each. We assessed how these global fire regime characteristics are related to patterns of climate, vegetation (biomes), and human activity. Cross-correlations demonstrate that only certain combinations of fire characteristics are possible, reflecting fundamental constraints in the types of fire regimes that can exist. A Bayesian clustering algorithm identified five global syndromes of fire regimes, or pyromes. Four pyromes represent distinctions between crown, litter, and grass-fueled fires, and the relationship of these to biomes and climate are not deterministic. Pyromes were partially discriminated on the basis of available moisture and rainfall seasonality. Human impacts also affected pyromes and are globally apparent as the driver of a fifth and unique pyrome that represents human-engineered modifications to fire characteristics. Differing biomes and climates may be represented within the same pyrome, implying that pathways of change in future fire regimes in response to changes in climate and human activity may be difficult to predict.

Defining pyromes and global syndromes of fire regimes

PubMed Central

Archibald, Sally; Lehmann, Caroline E. R.; Gómez-Dans, Jose L.; Bradstock, Ross A.

2013-01-01

Fire is a ubiquitous component of the Earth system that is poorly understood. To date, a global-scale understanding of fire is largely limited to the annual extent of burning as detected by satellites. This is problematic because fire is multidimensional, and focus on a single metric belies its complexity and importance within the Earth system. To address this, we identified five key characteristics of fire regimes—size, frequency, intensity, season, and extent—and combined new and existing global datasets to represent each. We assessed how these global fire regime characteristics are related to patterns of climate, vegetation (biomes), and human activity. Cross-correlations demonstrate that only certain combinations of fire characteristics are possible, reflecting fundamental constraints in the types of fire regimes that can exist. A Bayesian clustering algorithm identified five global syndromes of fire regimes, or pyromes. Four pyromes represent distinctions between crown, litter, and grass-fueled fires, and the relationship of these to biomes and climate are not deterministic. Pyromes were partially discriminated on the basis of available moisture and rainfall seasonality. Human impacts also affected pyromes and are globally apparent as the driver of a fifth and unique pyrome that represents human-engineered modifications to fire characteristics. Differing biomes and climates may be represented within the same pyrome, implying that pathways of change in future fire regimes in response to changes in climate and human activity may be difficult to predict. PMID:23559374

Direct and indirect effects of climate change on projected future fire regimes in the western United States.

PubMed

Liu, Zhihua; Wimberly, Michael C

2016-01-15

We asked two research questions: (1) What are the relative effects of climate change and climate-driven vegetation shifts on different components of future fire regimes? (2) How does incorporating climate-driven vegetation change into future fire regime projections alter the results compared to projections based only on direct climate effects? We used the western United States (US) as study area to answer these questions. Future (2071-2100) fire regimes were projected using statistical models to predict spatial patterns of occurrence, size and spread for large fires (>400 ha) and a simulation experiment was conducted to compare the direct climatic effects and the indirect effects of climate-driven vegetation change on fire regimes. Results showed that vegetation change amplified climate-driven increases in fire frequency and size and had a larger overall effect on future total burned area in the western US than direct climate effects. Vegetation shifts, which were highly sensitive to precipitation pattern changes, were also a strong determinant of the future spatial pattern of burn rates and had different effects on fire in currently forested and grass/shrub areas. Our results showed that climate-driven vegetation change can exert strong localized effects on fire occurrence and size, which in turn drive regional changes in fire regimes. The effects of vegetation change for projections of the geographic patterns of future fire regimes may be at least as important as the direct effects of climate change, emphasizing that accounting for changing vegetation patterns in models of future climate-fire relationships is necessary to provide accurate projections at continental to global scales. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Climate change impacts on forest fires: the stakeholders' perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giannakopoulos, C.; Roussos, A.; Karali, A.; Hatzaki, M.; Xanthopoulos, G.; Chatzinikos, E.; Fyllas, N.; Georgiades, N.; Karetsos, G.; Maheras, G.; Nikolaou, I.; Proutsos, N.; Sbarounis, T.; Tsaggari, K.; Tzamtzis, I.; Goodess, C.

2012-04-01

In this work, we present a synthesis of the presentations and discussions which arose during a workshop on 'Impacts of climate change on forest fires' held in September 2011 at the National Observatory of Athens, Greece in the framework of EU project CLIMRUN. At first, a general presentation about climate change and extremes in the Greek territory provided the necessary background to the audience and highlighted the need for data and information exchange between scientists and stakeholders through climate services within CLIMRUN. Discussions and presentations that followed linked climate with forest science through the use of a meteorological index for fire risk and future projections of fire danger using regional climate models. The current situation on Greek forests was also presented, as well as future steps that should be taken to ameliorate the situation under a climate change world. A time series analysis of changes in forest fires using available historical data on forest ecosystems in Greece was given in this session. This led to the topic of forest fire risk assessment and fire prevention, stating all actions towards sustainable management of forests and effective mechanisms to control fires under climate change. Options for a smooth adaptation of forests to climate change were discussed together with the lessons learned on practical level on prevention, repression and rehabilitation of forest fires. In between there were useful interventions on sustainable hunting and biodiversity protection and on climate change impacts on forest ecosystems dynamics. The importance of developing an educational program for primary/secondary school students on forest fire management was also highlighted. The perspective of forest stakeholders on climate change and how this change can affect their current or future activities was addressed through a questionnaire they were asked to complete. Results showed that the majority of the participants consider climate variability to be important or very important and to influence their activities. Extreme climate events, desertification and drought were regarded as the most important environmental problems along with loss of biodiversity. Most of the participants answered that they use historical data for research, and would welcome climate data and services targeted to their sector if offered. Acknowledgement: This work was supported by the EU project CLIMRUN under contract FP7-ENV-2010- 265192.

Fire, Carbon and Climate Change in Boreal Forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flannigan, M. D.; Amiro, B. D.; Logan, K. A.

2005-12-01

Disturbances are the major stand-renewing agents for much of the circumboreal forest. In Canada, fire has received much of the attention in carbon cycle science because it affects about 3 million ha of Canadian forest annually, impacts air quality, and can threaten life, property and infrastructure. Fire affects the carbon balance through three processes. First, carbon and other greenhouse gases are emitted to the atmosphere during the combustion process. We estimate this to average about 27 Tg C/year in Canada over the past 40 years, which is close to 20% of industrial carbon emissions. However, in some years this can exceed 100 Tg C. Efforts are underway to estimate global fire activity and greenhouse gas emissions using observations, remote sensing and modelling. The second process is the decomposition of fire-killed vegetation. This forms a pool of coarse woody debris that can take decades to decompose, or can be quite rapid, depending on the post-fire environment. The third process is succession of vegetation following fire, a dynamic process that involves the interplay among species establishment and competition. Weather and climate affects all of these processes. Estimates of the future environment indicate that much of boreal Canada will experience warmer and drier conditions, although there will be regional differences and transient effects. The projections suggest that we may experience a doubling of area burned over the next century because of anthropogenic climate changes. This may have further implications to the global carbon budget by increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. This increase in fire activity may lead to a positive feedback cycle with the increased release of greenhouse gases. A run-away scenario is unlikely because young successional boreal vegetation often does not burn as readily and would limit the positive feedback cycle. Also, changes to the forest composition following fire increases surface albedo and alters the energy balance; effects that may cause climate cooling. However, the impacts of landscape feedbacks and human intervention limiting future fire are not well known.

Evaluating and operationalizing unmanned aircraft for wildland fire use

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Watts, A.

2015-12-01

Many potential uses of unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) related to wildland fire research and operations have been demonstrated, but the vast majority of these have been proof-of-concept or one-time flights. Scientists, practitioners, and firefighting agencies look forward to the widespread adoption of this powerful technology and its regular use. Similarly, the UAS industry awaits opportunities for commercialization. Our collaboration brings together UAS industry, research and management agencies, and universities in the USA and Canada to investigate the perceived effectiveness of UAS for wildland fire use, and the factors affecting their commercial-scale employment. Our current and future activities include market research, training and technology transfer, and deployment of UAS over fires to promote development of sensors as well as their safe integration into fire operations. We will present initial results, and as a part of our presentation we also invite participation of the AGU community for planned future project phases. We anticipate that the outcomes of our work will be useful to potential users who are unfamiliar with UAS, and to researchers and practitioners with experience or an interest in their use in fire and related natural-resource disciplines.

Cold Helium Pressurization for Liquid Oxygen / Liquid Methane Propulsion Systems: Fully-Integrated Initial Hot-Fire Test Results

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morehead, R. L.; Atwell, M. J.; Melcher, J. C.; Hurlbert, E. A.

2016-01-01

A prototype cold helium active pressurization system was incorporated into an existing liquid oxygen (LOX) / liquid methane (LCH4) prototype planetary lander and hot-fire tested to collect vehicle-level performance data. Results from this hot-fire test series were used to validate integrated models of the vehicle helium and propulsion systems and demonstrate system effectiveness for a throttling lander. Pressurization systems vary greatly in complexity and efficiency between vehicles, so a pressurization performance metric was also developed as a means to compare different active pressurization schemes. This implementation of an active repress system is an initial sizing draft. Refined implementations will be tested in the future, improving the general knowledge base for a cryogenic lander-based cold helium system.

Quantifying the historic and future distribution of fire in Alaskan tundra ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Young, A. M.; Higuera, P. E.; Duffy, P. A.

2012-12-01

During the past 60 years fire has been relatively rare and small in size within tundra ecosystems. However, historical observations and paleoecological evidence indicates that fire regimes vary widely across Alaskan tundra, in both space and time. These lines of evidence suggest that fire occupies a highly specified niche or ecological space in Alaskan tundra, which may change significantly with future climate warming. The objective of this research was to quantify the relationships between fire occurrence and different seasonal climate variables, and to begin to make inferences about future distributions of fire across the tundra landscape. The results of this research will ultimately contribute to the goal of summarizing the linkages that exist among climate, vegetation, and fire in the historical record, and for making predictions concerning fire disturbance in tundra ecosystems throughout the next century. Historic tundra fires occurred non-randomly across space, and a relationship exists between fire occurrence and warm, dry climates. We quantified this relationship with generalized boosting models (GBM) using datasets of downscaled temperature and precipitation (2 km, 1971-2000), and historic records of tundra area burned (1950-2010). The GBM used six seasonal climate variables, focused on growing season temperature and precipitation, to predict the probability of fire occurrence over the 1950-2010 time period. To understand implications of these historic relationships given ongoing climate warming, we constructed future climatologies of temperature and precipitation for the five GCMs which performed best in Alaska under the IPCC AR4 A1B (middle-of-the-road) emissions scenario for the time period 2021-2050. The GBM performed well predicting the observed spatial distribution of tundra area burned, capturing key regions which experienced the most fire activity from 1950-2010. The mean temperature of the warmest month (MeanMaxTemp) was the most influential variable in the GBM, and partial dependence plots revealed a strong non-linear relationship between the probability of fire and MeanMaxTemp, with a distinct temperature threshold of approximately 12.0 oC. Climate projections in Alaskan tundra (2021-2050) from the five GCMs was on average 2.1 oC warmer (SD = 0.3 oC) than the 1971-2000 mean. During the 1971-2000 period, 62% of tundra existed above the 12.0 oC threshold. In contrast, four of the five GCMs predicted more tundra area will exist above this same temperature threshold during the 2021-2050 period (mean=77%, min=48%, max=93%), with large increases occurring on the North Slope. Ongoing work includes applying this GBM to future climate conditions to provide quantitative estimates of future tundra burning. Our results suggest that the ecological space that currently supports tundra burning will become more common during the next century. A more flammable tundra landscape could contribute to increased land surface temperatures through feedbacks between fire, increased carbon flux from the soil to atmosphere, and decreased albedo through vegetation succession. Given the rapid environmental changes projected for the Arctic throughout the next century, it is imperative that we understand when and where fire regimes are changing, not only across Alaskan tundra but across the global tundra biome as well.

12,000-Years of fire regime drivers in the lowlands of Transylvania (Central-Eastern Europe): a data-model approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feurdean, A.; Liakka, J.; Vannière, B.; Marinova, E.; Hutchinson, S. M.; Mosburgger, V.; Hickler, T.

2013-12-01

The usefulness of sedimentary charcoal records to document centennial to millennial scale trends in aspects of fire regimes (frequency, severity) is widely acknowledged, yet the long-term variability in these regimes is poorly understood. Here, we use a high-resolution, multi-proxy analysis of a lacustrine sequence located in the lowlands of Transylvania (NW Romania), alongside global climate simulations in order to disentangle the drivers of fire regimes in this dry climatic region of Central-Eastern Europe. Periods of greater fire activity and frequency occurred between 10,700 and 7100 cal yr BP (mean Fire Interval = mFI 112 yr), and between 3300 and 700 cal yr BP (mFI 150 yr), whereas intervals of lower fire activity were recorded between 12,000 and 10,700 cal yr BP (mFI 217 yr), 7100 and 3300 cal yr BP (mFI 317 yr), and over last 700 years (no fire events detected). We found good correlations between simulated early summer (June, July) soil moisture content and near-surface air temperature with fire activity, particularly for the early to mid Holocene. A climate-fire relationship is further supported by local hydrological changes, i.e., lake level and runoff fluctuations. Fuel limitation, as a result of arid and strongly seasonal climatic conditions, led to low fire activity before 10,700 cal yr BP. However, fires were most frequent during climatically drier phases for the remaining, fuel-sufficient, part of the Holocene. Our results also suggest that the occurrence of more frequent fires in the early Holocene has kept woodlands open, promoted grassland abundance and sustained a more flammable ecosystem (mFI < 150 years) whereas the decline in fire risk under cooler and wetter climate conditions (mFI = 317 years) favoured woodland development. From 3300 cal yr BP, human impacts clearly were partly responsible for changes in fire activity, first increasing fire frequency and severity in periods with fire-favourable climatic conditions (halving the mFI from 300 years to about 150 years), then effectively suppressing fires over the last several centuries. Given the projected future temperature increase and moisture decline and the biomass accumulation due to the agricultural land abandonment in the region, natural fire frequency would be expected to return to <150 years.

Geophysical evidence for non-uniform permafrost degradation after fire across boreal landscapes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Minsley, B. J.; Pastick, N. J.; Wylie, B. K.; Brown, D. N.; Kass, A.

2015-12-01

Fire can be a significant driver of permafrost change in boreal landscapes, altering the availability of soil carbon and nutrients that have important implications for future climate and ecological succession. However, not all landscapes are equally susceptible to fire-induced change. As fire frequency is expected to increase in the high latitudes, methods to understand the vulnerability and resilience of different landscapes to permafrost degradation are needed. We present a combination of multi-scale remote sensing, geophysical, and field observations that reveal details of both near-surface (<1 m) and deeper impacts of fire on permafrost. Along 11 transects that span burned-unburned boundaries in different landscape settings within interior Alaska, subsurface imaging indicates locations where permafrost appears to be resilient to disturbance from fire, areas where warm permafrost conditions exist that may be most vulnerable to future change, and also where permafrost has thawed. High-resolution geophysical data corroborate remote sensing interpretations of near-surface permafrost, and also add new high-fidelity details of spatial heterogeneity that extend from the shallow subsurface to depths of about 10 m. Data collected along each transect include observations of active layer thickness (ALT), organic layer thickness (OLT), plant species cover, electrical resistivity tomography (ERT), and downhole Nuclear Magnetic Resonance (NMR) measurements. Results show that post-fire impacts on permafrost can be variable, and depend on multiple factors such as fire severity, soil texture, and soil moisture.

Contribution of human, climate and biophysical drivers to the spatial distribution of wildfires in a French Mediterranean area: where do wildfires start and spread?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruffault, Julien; Mouillot, Florent; Moebius, Flavia

2013-04-01

Understanding the contribution of biophysical and human drivers to the spatial distribution of fires at regional scale has many ecological and economical implications in a context of on-going global changes. However these fire drivers often interact in complex ways, such that disentangling and assessing the relative contribution of human vs. biophysical factors remains a major challenge. Indeed, the identification of biophysical conditions that promote fires are confused by the inherent stochasticity in fire occurrences and fire spread on the one hand and, by the influence of human factors -through both fire ignition and suppression - on the other. Moreover, different factors may drive fire ignition and fire spread, in such a way that the areas with the highest density of ignitions may not coincide with those where large fires occur. In the present study, we investigated the drivers of fires ignition and spread in a Mediterranean area of southern France. We used a 17 years fire database (the PROMETHEE database from 1989-2006) combined with a set of 8 explanatory variables describing the spatial pattern in ignitions, vegetation and fire weather. We first isolated the weather conditions affecting the fire occurrence and their spread using a statistical model of the weather/fuel water status for each fire event.. The results of these statistical models were used to map the fire weather in terms of average number of days with suitable conditions for burning. Then, we used Boosted regression trees (BRT) models to assess the relative importance of the different variables on the distribution of wildfire with different sizes and to assess the relationship between each variables and fire occurrence and spread probabilities. We found that human activities explained up to 50 % of the spatial distribution of fire ignitions (SDI). The distribution of large fire was chiefly explained by fuel characteristics (about 40%). Surprisingly, the weather indices explained only 20 % of the SDI and its contribution does no vary according to the size of considered fire events. These results suggest that changes in fuel characteristics and human settlements/ activities, rather than weather conditions are the most likely to modify the future distribution of fires in this Mediterranean area. These conclusions provide useful information on the scenarios that could arise from the interaction of changes in climate and land cover for the Mediterranean area in the near future.

The climate space of fire regimes in north-western North America

USGS Publications Warehouse

Whitman, Ellen; Batllori, Enric; Parisien, Marc-André; Miller, Carol; Coop, Jonathan D.; Krawchuk, Meg A.; Chong, Geneva W.; Haire, Sandra L.

2015-01-01

Aim. Studies of fire activity along environmental gradients have been undertaken, but the results of such studies have yet to be integrated with fire-regime analysis. We characterize fire-regime components along climate gradients and a gradient of human influence. Location. We focus on a climatically diverse region of north-western North America extending from northern British Columbia, Canada, to northern Utah and Colorado, USA.Methods. We used a multivariate framework to collapse 12 climatic variables into two major climate gradients and binned them into 73 discrete climate domains. We examined variation in fire-regime components (frequency, size, severity, seasonality and cause) across climate domains. Fire-regime attributes were compiled from existing databases and Landsat imagery for 1897 large fires. Relationships among the fire-regime components, climate gradients and human influence were examined through bivariate regressions. The unique contribution of human influence was also assessed.Results. A primary climate gradient of temperature and summer precipitation and a secondary gradient of continentality and winter precipitation in the study area were identified. Fire occupied a distinct central region of such climate space, within which fire-regime components varied considerably. We identified significant interrelations between fire-regime components of fire size, frequency, burn severity and cause. The influence of humans was apparent in patterns of burn severity and ignition cause.Main conclusions. Wildfire activity is highest where thermal and moisture gradients converge to promote fuel production, flammability and ignitions. Having linked fire-regime components to large-scale climate gradients, we show that fire regimes – like the climate that controls them – are a part of a continuum, expanding on models of varying constraints on fire activity. The observed relationships between fire-regime components, together with the distinct role of climatic and human influences, generate variation in biotic communities. Thus, future changes to climate may lead to ecological changes through altered fire regimes.

Synergistic effects of drought and fire on the carbon carrying capacity of tropical forests and woodlands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boer, Matthias; Bradstock, Ross

2014-05-01

More than half of the global forest carbon stock is held in tropical forests. A relatively large proportion of the tropical forest carbon is stored in plant biomass rather than in the soil, making these stocks particularly vulnerable to disturbances such as droughts, fires and cyclones. The frequencies, duration and intensities of such disturbances may change under future climates with poorly resolved but potentially significant (synergistic) effects on the carbon carrying capacity of tropical forests and thereby on global geochemical cycles. In this study we analyse high-resolution global data sets for tropical forest biomass (Saatchi et al., 2011. PNAS) and fire affected areas (GFED4, Giglio et al.,2013. JGR 118), together with climate data (WorldClim, Hijmans et al., 2005. Int. J. Clim. 25), to quantify the sensitivity of tropical forest carbon stocks in South America, Africa and Asia/Australia to seasonal water deficits and fire. Here, the climatic water deficit (D), calculated as the difference between mean annual potential evapotranspiration and actual evapotranspiration, is used as a measure of seasonal water stress (i.e., evaporative demand not met by available water), while the mean annual burned area fraction (1995-2013) of grid cells is used as a measure of average fire activity. Tropical forest carbon stocks are maximal, as expected, where water deficits are negligible. In those densely forested environments fire tends to be extremely rare as fuels are too wet to burn for most of the time. In all three continents, potential tropical forest carbon stocks are well predicted by a non-linear decreasing function of the mean annual climatic water deficit, with a steep drop in carbon stocks at D of 700-800 mm per year. At this threshold in the climatic water deficit we observe a strong increase in fire activity that is indicative of a critical change in vegetation structure (i.e., tree/grass ratio) and associated shift in the dominant climatic constraint on fire activity from fuel dryness to fuel productivity. By comparing predictions of potential forest carbon stocks (i.e., as a function of D only) with actual carbon stocks, we quantify the sensitivity of those stocks to increasing fire activity. Finally, we map the risk of losses in carbon carrying capacity of tropical forests under scenarios of future climate.

Research in fire prevention.

PubMed

Pearce, N

1985-10-01

This paper describes in broad terms, the fire testing programme we carried out on whole bed assemblies in 1984. It should be clear that the tests were carried out in a thoroughly rigorous scientific manner. As always there is more to be done. The immediate task of finding the so called 'safe' bed assembly is proceeding with the search this year for safer pillows. Softer barrier foams are now being produced and it may be that the NHS could use full depth foam mattresses rather than a barrier foam wrap. On the engineering side I have explained the false alarm problem, and I have reviewed some of the research we are doing to see that new technology is used to give us better systems in future. Life safety sprinkler systems give the possibility of truly active fire protection in patient areas. They will enhance fire safety but at the moment no trade-offs can be offered in other areas of fire protection--either active or passive. My final point is that although I have considered the Department's fire research by looking separately at specific projects, the fire safety of a hospital must always be considered as a total package. To be effective, individual components of fire safety must not be considered in isolation but as part of the overall fire safety system.

Supporting FIRE-suppression strategies combining fire spread MODelling and SATellite data in an operational context in Portugal: the FIRE-MODSAT project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sá, Ana C. L.; Benali, Akli; Pinto, Renata M. S.; Pereira, José M. C.; Trigo, Ricardo M.; DaCamara, Carlos C.

2014-05-01

Large wildfires are infrequent but account for the most severe environmental, ecological and socio-economic impacts. In recent years Portugal has suffered the impact of major heat waves that fuelled records of burnt area exceeding 400.000ha and 300.000ha in 2003 and 2005, respectively. According to the latest IPCC reports, the frequency and amplitude of summer heat waves over Iberia will very likely increase in the future. Therefore, most climate change studies point to an increase in the number and extent of wildfires. Thus, an increase in both wildfire impacts and fire suppression difficulties is expected. The spread of large wildfires results from a complex interaction between topography, meteorology and fuel properties. Wildfire spread models (e.g. FARSITE) are commonly used to simulate fire growth and behaviour and are an essential tool to understand their main drivers. Additionally, satellite active-fire data have been used to monitor the occurrence, extent, and spread of wildfires. Both satellite data and fire spread models provide different types of information about the spatial and temporal distribution of large wildfires and can potentially be used to support strategic decisions regarding fire suppression resource allocation. However, they have not been combined in a manner that fully exploits their potential and minimizes their limitations. A knowledge gap still exists in understanding how to minimize the impacts of large wildfires, leading to the following research question: What can we learn from past large wildfires in order to mitigate future fire impacts? FIRE-MODSAT is a one-year funded project by the Portuguese Foundation for the Science and Technology (FCT) that is founded on this research question, with the main goal of improving our understanding on the interactions between fire spread and its environmental drivers, to support fire management decisions in an operational context and generate valuable information to improve the efficiency of the fire suppression system. This project proposes to explore an innovative combination of remote sensing and fire spread models in order to 1) better understand the interactions of fire spread drivers that lead to large wildfires; 2) identify the spatio-temporal frames in which large wildfires can be suppressed more efficiently, and 3) explore the essential steps towards an operational use of both tools to assist fire suppression decisions. Preliminary results combine MODIS active-fire data and burn scar perimeters, to derive the main fire spread paths for the 10 largest wildfires that occurred in Portugal between 2001 and 2012. Fire growth and behavior simulations of some of those wildfires are assessed using the active fires data. Results are also compared with the major fire paths to understand the main drivers of fire propagation, through their interactions with topography, vegetation and meteorology. These combined results are also used for spatial and temporal identification of opportunity windows for a more efficient suppression intervention for each fire event. The approach shows promising results, providing a valuable reconstruction of the fire events and retrieval of important parameters related to the complex spread patterns of individual fire events.

Fire Organization and Administration: Report of Futuring Group 3

Treesearch

1987-01-01

Futuring Group 3 identified 12 trends that determine the way fire administrators must plan and budget for efficient wildland/urban fire protection organizations in the future. Five key visions and associated strategies were also identified.

A human-driven decline in global burned area.

PubMed

Andela, N; Morton, D C; Giglio, L; Chen, Y; van der Werf, G R; Kasibhatla, P S; DeFries, R S; Collatz, G J; Hantson, S; Kloster, S; Bachelet, D; Forrest, M; Lasslop, G; Li, F; Mangeon, S; Melton, J R; Yue, C; Randerson, J T

2017-06-30

Fire is an essential Earth system process that alters ecosystem and atmospheric composition. Here we assessed long-term fire trends using multiple satellite data sets. We found that global burned area declined by 24.3 ± 8.8% over the past 18 years. The estimated decrease in burned area remained robust after adjusting for precipitation variability and was largest in savannas. Agricultural expansion and intensification were primary drivers of declining fire activity. Fewer and smaller fires reduced aerosol concentrations, modified vegetation structure, and increased the magnitude of the terrestrial carbon sink. Fire models were unable to reproduce the pattern and magnitude of observed declines, suggesting that they may overestimate fire emissions in future projections. Using economic and demographic variables, we developed a conceptual model for predicting fire in human-dominated landscapes. Copyright © 2017 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works.

Fires in Non-drought Conditions in Indonesia: the Role of Increasing Temperatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernandes, K.; Verchot, L. V.; Baethgen, W.; Gutierrez-Velez, V.; Pinedo-Vasquez, M.; Martius, C.

2017-12-01

In Indonesia, drought driven fires occur typically during the warm phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), such as those of 1997 and 2015 that resulted in months-long hazardous atmospheric pollution levels in Equatorial Asia and record greenhouse gas emissions. Nonetheless, anomalously active fire seasons have also been observed in non-drought years. In this work, we investigated whether fires are impacted by temperature anomalies and if so, if the responses differ under contrasting precipitation regimes. Our findings show that when the July-October dry-season is anomalously dry, the sensitivity of fires to temperature anomalies is similar regardless of the sign of the anomalies. In contrast, in wet condition, fire risk increases sharply when the dry season is anomalously warm. We also present a characterization of near-term regional climate projections over the next few decades and the implications of continuing global temperature increase in future fire probability in Indonesia.

Heightened fire risk in Indonesia in response to increasing temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernandes, K.; Baethgen, W.; Verchot, L. V.; Gutierrez-Velez, V.; Pinedo-Vasquez, M.

2016-12-01

In Indonesia, drought driven fires occur typically during the warm phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), such as those of 1997 and 2015 that resulted in months-long hazardous atmospheric pollution levels in Equatorial Asia and record greenhouse gas emissions. Nonetheless, anomalously active fire seasons have also been observed in non-drought years. In this work, we investigated whether fires are impacted by temperature anomalies and if so, if the responses differ under contrasting precipitation regimes. Our findings show that when the July-October dry-season is anomalously dry, the sensitivity of fires to temperature anomalies is similar regardless of the sign of the anomalies. In contrast, in wet condition, fire risk increases sharply when the dry season is anomalously warm. We also present a characterization of near-term regional climate projections over the next few decades and the implications of continuing global temperature increase in future fire probability in Indonesia.

The Relationship between Particulate Pollution Levels in Australian Cities, Meteorology, and Landscape Fire Activity Detected from MODIS Hotspots

PubMed Central

Price, Owen F.; Williamson, Grant J.; Henderson, Sarah B.; Johnston, Fay; Bowman, David M. J. S.

2012-01-01

Smoke from bushfires is an emerging issue for fire managers because of increasing evidence for its public health effects. Development of forecasting models to predict future pollution levels based on the relationship between bushfire activity and current pollution levels would be a useful management tool. As a first step, we use daily thermal anomalies detected by the MODIS Active Fire Product (referred to as “hotspots”), pollution concentrations, and meteorological data for the years 2002 to 2008, to examine the statistical relationship between fire activity in the landscapes and pollution levels around Perth and Sydney, two large Australian cities. Resultant models were statistically significant, but differed in their goodness of fit and the distance at which the strength of the relationship was strongest. For Sydney, a univariate model for hotspot activity within 100 km explained 24% of variation in pollution levels, and the best model including atmospheric variables explained 56% of variation. For Perth, the best radius was 400 km, explaining only 7% of variation, while the model including atmospheric variables explained 31% of the variation. Pollution was higher when the atmosphere was more stable and in the presence of on-shore winds, whereas there was no effect of wind blowing from the fires toward the pollution monitors. Our analysis shows there is a good prospect for developing region-specific forecasting tools combining hotspot fire activity with meteorological data. PMID:23071788

Fire in the Earth System: Bridging data and modeling research

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hantson, Srijn; Kloster, Silvia; Coughlan, Michael; Daniau, Anne-Laure; Vanniere, Boris; Bruecher, Tim; Kehrwald, Natalie; Magi, Brian I.

2016-01-01

Significant changes in wildfire occurrence, extent, and severity in areas such as western North America and Indonesia in 2015 have made the issue of fire increasingly salient in both the public and scientific spheres. Biomass combustion rapidly transforms land cover, smoke pours into the atmosphere, radiative heat from fires initiates dramatic pyrocumulus clouds, and the repeated ecological and atmospheric effects of fire can even impact regional and global climate. Furthermore, fires have a significant impact on human health, livelihoods, and social and economic systems.Modeling and databased methods to understand fire have rapidly coevolved over the past decade. Satellite and ground-based data about present-day fire are widely available for applications in research and fire management. Fire modeling has developed in part because of the evolution in vegetation and Earth system modeling efforts, but parameterizations and validation are largely focused on the present day because of the availability of satellite data. Charcoal deposits in sediment cores have emerged as a powerful method to evaluate trends in biomass burning extending back to the Last Glacial Maximum and beyond, and these records provide a context for present-day fire. The Global Charcoal Database version 3 compiled about 700 charcoal records and more than 1,000 records are expected for the future version 4. Together, these advances offer a pathway to explore how the strengths of fire data and fire modeling could address the weaknesses in the overall understanding of human-climate–fire linkages.A community of researchers studying fire in the Earth system with individual expertise that included paleoecology, paleoclimatology, modern ecology, archaeology, climate, and Earth system modeling, statistics, geography, biogeochemistry, and atmospheric science met at an intensive workshop in Massachusetts to explore new research directions and initiate new collaborations. Research themes, which emerged from the workshop participants via preworkshop surveys, focused on addressing the following questions: What are the climatic, ecological, and human drivers of fire regimes, both past and future? What is the role of humans in shaping historical fire regimes? How does fire ecology affect land cover changes, biodiversity, carbon storage, and human land uses? What are the historical fire trends and their impacts across biomes? Are their impacts local and/or regional? Are the fire trends in the last two decades unprecedented from a historical perspective? The workshop1 aimed to develop testable hypotheses about fire, climate, vegetation, and human interactions by leveraging the confluence of proxy, observational, and model data related to decadal- to millennial-scale fire activity on our planet. New research directions focused on broad interdisciplinary approaches to highlight how knowledge about past fire activity could provide a more complete understanding of the predictive capacity of fire models and inform fire policy in the face of our changing climate.

Fire safety applications for spacecraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Friedman, Robert; Olson, Sandra L.

1989-01-01

Fire safety for spacecraft is reviewed by first describing current practices, many of which are adapted directly from aircraft. Then, current analyses and experimental knowledge in low-gravity combustion, with implications for fire safety are discussed. In orbiting spacecraft, the detection and suppression of flames are strongly affected by the large reduction in buoyant flows under low gravity. Generally, combustion intensity is reduced in low gravity. There are some notable exceptions, however, one example being the strong enhancement of flames by low-velocity ventilation flows in space. Finally, the future requirements in fire safety, particularly the needs of long-duration space stations in fire prevention, detection, extinguishment, and atmospheric control are examined. The goal of spacecraft fire-safety investigations is the establishment of trade-offs that promote maximum safety without hampering the useful human and scientific activities in space.

How Fire History, Fire Suppression Practices and Climate Change Affect Wildfire Regimes in Mediterranean Landscapes

PubMed Central

Brotons, Lluís; Aquilué, Núria; de Cáceres, Miquel; Fortin, Marie-Josée; Fall, Andrew

2013-01-01

Available data show that future changes in global change drivers may lead to an increasing impact of fires on terrestrial ecosystems worldwide. Yet, fire regime changes in highly humanised fire-prone regions are difficult to predict because fire effects may be heavily mediated by human activities We investigated the role of fire suppression strategies in synergy with climate change on the resulting fire regimes in Catalonia (north-eastern Spain). We used a spatially-explicit fire-succession model at the landscape level to test whether the use of different firefighting opportunities related to observed reductions in fire spread rates and effective fire sizes, and hence changes in the fire regime. We calibrated this model with data from a period with weak firefighting and later assess the potential for suppression strategies to modify fire regimes expected under different levels of climate change. When comparing simulations with observed fire statistics from an eleven-year period with firefighting strategies in place, our results showed that, at least in two of the three sub-regions analysed, the observed fire regime could not be reproduced unless taking into account the effects of fire suppression. Fire regime descriptors were highly dependent on climate change scenarios, with a general trend, under baseline scenarios without fire suppression, to large-scale increases in area burnt. Fire suppression strategies had a strong capacity to compensate for climate change effects. However, strong active fire suppression was necessary to accomplish such compensation, while more opportunistic fire suppression strategies derived from recent fire history only had a variable, but generally weak, potential for compensation of enhanced fire impacts under climate change. The concept of fire regime in the Mediterranean is probably better interpreted as a highly dynamic process in which the main determinants of fire are rapidly modified by changes in landscape, climate and socioeconomic factors such as fire suppression strategies. PMID:23658726

How fire history, fire suppression practices and climate change affect wildfire regimes in Mediterranean landscapes.

PubMed

Brotons, Lluís; Aquilué, Núria; de Cáceres, Miquel; Fortin, Marie-Josée; Fall, Andrew

2013-01-01

Available data show that future changes in global change drivers may lead to an increasing impact of fires on terrestrial ecosystems worldwide. Yet, fire regime changes in highly humanised fire-prone regions are difficult to predict because fire effects may be heavily mediated by human activities We investigated the role of fire suppression strategies in synergy with climate change on the resulting fire regimes in Catalonia (north-eastern Spain). We used a spatially-explicit fire-succession model at the landscape level to test whether the use of different firefighting opportunities related to observed reductions in fire spread rates and effective fire sizes, and hence changes in the fire regime. We calibrated this model with data from a period with weak firefighting and later assess the potential for suppression strategies to modify fire regimes expected under different levels of climate change. When comparing simulations with observed fire statistics from an eleven-year period with firefighting strategies in place, our results showed that, at least in two of the three sub-regions analysed, the observed fire regime could not be reproduced unless taking into account the effects of fire suppression. Fire regime descriptors were highly dependent on climate change scenarios, with a general trend, under baseline scenarios without fire suppression, to large-scale increases in area burnt. Fire suppression strategies had a strong capacity to compensate for climate change effects. However, strong active fire suppression was necessary to accomplish such compensation, while more opportunistic fire suppression strategies derived from recent fire history only had a variable, but generally weak, potential for compensation of enhanced fire impacts under climate change. The concept of fire regime in the Mediterranean is probably better interpreted as a highly dynamic process in which the main determinants of fire are rapidly modified by changes in landscape, climate and socioeconomic factors such as fire suppression strategies.

Interactions of landscape disturbances and climate change dictate ecological pattern and process: spatial modeling of wildfire, insect, and disease dynamics under future climates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Loehman, Rachel A.; Keane, Robert E.; Holsinger, Lisa M.; Wu, Zhiwei

2016-01-01

ContextInteractions among disturbances, climate, and vegetation influence landscape patterns and ecosystem processes. Climate changes, exotic invasions, beetle outbreaks, altered fire regimes, and human activities may interact to produce landscapes that appear and function beyond historical analogs.ObjectivesWe used the mechanistic ecosystem-fire process model FireBGCv2 to model interactions of wildland fire, mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae), and white pine blister rust (Cronartium ribicola) under current and future climates, across three diverse study areas.MethodsWe assessed changes in tree basal area as a measure of landscape response over a 300-year simulation period for the Crown of the Continent in north-central Montana, East Fork of the Bitterroot River in western Montana, and Yellowstone Central Plateau in western Wyoming, USA.ResultsInteracting disturbances reduced overall basal area via increased tree mortality of host species. Wildfire decreased basal area more than beetles or rust, and disturbance interactions modeled under future climate significantly altered landscape basal area as compared with no-disturbance and current climate scenarios. Responses varied among landscapes depending on species composition, sensitivity to fire, and pathogen and beetle suitability and susceptibility.ConclusionsUnderstanding disturbance interactions is critical for managing landscapes because forest responses to wildfires, pathogens, and beetle attacks may offset or exacerbate climate influences, with consequences for wildlife, carbon, and biodiversity.

The potential and realized spread of wildfires across Canada.

PubMed

Wang, Xianli; Parisien, Marc-André; Flannigan, Mike D; Parks, Sean A; Anderson, Kerry R; Little, John M; Taylor, Steve W

2014-08-01

Given that they can burn for weeks or months, wildfires in temperate and boreal forests may become immense (eg., 10(0) - 10(4) km(2) ). However, during the period within which a large fire is 'active', not all days experience weather that is conducive to fire spread; indeed most of the spread occurs on a small proportion (e.g., 1 - 15 days) of not necessarily consecutive days during the active period. This study examines and compares the Canada-wide patterns in fire-conducive weather ('potential' spread) and the spread that occurs on the ground ('realized' spread). Results show substantial variability in distributions of potential and realized spread days across Canada. Both potential and realized spread are higher in western than in eastern Canada; however, whereas potential spread generally decreases from south to north, there is no such pattern with realized spread. The realized-to-potential fire-spread ratio is considerably higher in northern Canada than in the south, indicating that proportionally more fire-conducive days translate into fire progression. An exploration of environmental correlates to spread show that there may be a few factors compensating for the lower potential spread in northern Canada: a greater proportion of coniferous (i.e., more flammable) vegetation, lesser human impacts (i.e., less fragmented landscapes), sufficient fire ignitions, and intense droughts. Because a linear relationship exists between the frequency distributions of potential spread days and realized spread days in a fire zone, it is possible to obtain one from the other using a simple conversion factor. Our methodology thus provides a means to estimate realized fire spread from weather-based data in regions where fire databases are poor, which may improve our ability to predict future fire activity. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Post-fire logging reduces surface woody fuels up to four decades following wildfire

Treesearch

David W. Peterson; Erich Kyle Dodson; Richy J. Harrod

2015-01-01

Severe wildfires create pulses of dead trees that influence future fuel loads, fire behavior, and fire effects as they decay and deposit surface woody fuels. Harvesting fire-killed trees may reduce future surface woody fuels and related fire hazards, but the magnitude and timing of post-fire logging effects on woody fuels have not been fully assessed. To address this...

Fire risk in San Diego County, California: A weighted Bayesian model approach

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kolden, Crystal A.; Weigel, Timothy J.

2007-01-01

Fire risk models are widely utilized to mitigate wildfire hazards, but models are often based on expert opinions of less understood fire-ignition and spread processes. In this study, we used an empirically derived weights-of-evidence model to assess what factors produce fire ignitions east of San Diego, California. We created and validated a dynamic model of fire-ignition risk based on land characteristics and existing fire-ignition history data, and predicted ignition risk for a future urbanization scenario. We then combined our empirical ignition-risk model with a fuzzy fire behavior-risk model developed by wildfire experts to create a hybrid model of overall fire risk. We found that roads influence fire ignitions and that future growth will increase risk in new rural development areas. We conclude that empirically derived risk models and hybrid models offer an alternative method to assess current and future fire risk based on management actions.

Assessment of Fire Occurrence and Future Fire Potential in Arctic Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

French, N. H. F.; Jenkins, L. K.; Loboda, T. V.; Bourgeau-Chavez, L. L.; Whitley, M. A.

2014-12-01

An analysis of the occurrence of fire in Alaskan tundra was completed using the relatively complete historical record of fire for the region from 1950 to 2013. Spatial fire data for Alaskan tundra regions were obtained from the Alaska Large Fire Database for the region defined from vegetation and ecoregion maps. A detailed presentation of fire records available for assessing the fire regime of the tundra regions of Alaska as well as results evaluating fire size, seasonality, and general geographic and temporal trends is included. Assessment of future fire potential was determined for three future climate scenarios at four locations across the Alaskan tundra using the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI). Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) weather variables were used for historical (1850-2005) and future (2006-2100) time periods. The database includes 908 fire points and 463 fire polygons within the 482,931 km2 of Alaskan tundra. Based on the polygon database 25,656 km2 (6,340,000 acres) has burned across the six tundra ecoregions since 1950. Approximately 87% of tundra fires start in June and July across all ecoregions. Combining information from the polygon and points data records, the estimated average fire size for fire in the Alaskan Arctic region is 28.1 km2 (7,070 acres), which is much smaller than in the adjacent boreal forest region, averaging 203 km2 for high fire years. The largest fire in the database is the Imuruk Basin Fire which burned 1,680 km2 in 1954 in the Seward Peninsula region (Table 1). Assessment of future fire potential shows that, in comparison with the historical fire record, fire occurrence in Alaskan tundra is expected to increase under all three climate scenarios. Occurrences of high fire weather danger (>10 FWI) are projected to increase in frequency and magnitude in all regions modeled. The changes in fire weather conditions are expected to vary from one region to another in seasonal occurrence as well as severity and frequency of high fire weather danger. While the Alaska Large Fire Database represents the best data available for the Alaskan Arctic, and is superior to many other regions around the world, particularly Arctic regions, these fire records need to be used with some caution due to the mixed origin and minimal validation of the data; this is reviewed in the presentation.

Detection and Characterization of Low Temperature Peat Fires during the 2015 Fire Catastrophe in Indonesia Using a New High-Sensitivity Fire Monitoring Satellite Sensor (FireBird)

PubMed Central

Atwood, Elizabeth C.; Englhart, Sandra; Lorenz, Eckehard; Halle, Winfried; Wiedemann, Werner; Siegert, Florian

2016-01-01

Vast and disastrous fires occurred on Borneo during the 2015 dry season, pushing Indonesia into the top five carbon emitting countries. The region was affected by a very strong El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate phenomenon, on par with the last severe event in 1997/98. Fire dynamics in Central Kalimantan were investigated using an innovative sensor offering higher sensitivity to a wider range of fire intensities at a finer spatial resolution (160 m) than heretofore available. The sensor is onboard the TET-1 satellite, part of the German Aerospace Center (DLR) FireBird mission. TET-1 images (acquired every 2–3 days) from the middle infrared were used to detect fires continuously burning for almost three weeks in the protected peatlands of Sebangau National Park as well as surrounding areas with active logging and oil palm concessions. TET-1 detection capabilities were compared with MODIS active fire detection and Landsat burned area algorithms. Fire dynamics, including fire front propagation speed and area burned, were investigated. We show that TET-1 has improved detection capabilities over MODIS in monitoring low-intensity peatland fire fronts through thick smoke and haze. Analysis of fire dynamics revealed that the largest burned areas resulted from fire front lines started from multiple locations, and the highest propagation speeds were in excess of 500 m/day (all over peat > 2m deep). Fires were found to occur most often in concessions that contained drainage infrastructure but were not cleared prior to the fire season. Benefits of implementing this sensor system to improve current fire management techniques are discussed. Near real-time fire detection together with enhanced fire behavior monitoring capabilities would not only improve firefighting efforts, but also benefit analysis of fire impact on tropical peatlands, greenhouse gas emission estimations as well as mitigation measures to reduce severe fire events in the future. PMID:27486664

Detection and Characterization of Low Temperature Peat Fires during the 2015 Fire Catastrophe in Indonesia Using a New High-Sensitivity Fire Monitoring Satellite Sensor (FireBird).

PubMed

Atwood, Elizabeth C; Englhart, Sandra; Lorenz, Eckehard; Halle, Winfried; Wiedemann, Werner; Siegert, Florian

2016-01-01

Vast and disastrous fires occurred on Borneo during the 2015 dry season, pushing Indonesia into the top five carbon emitting countries. The region was affected by a very strong El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate phenomenon, on par with the last severe event in 1997/98. Fire dynamics in Central Kalimantan were investigated using an innovative sensor offering higher sensitivity to a wider range of fire intensities at a finer spatial resolution (160 m) than heretofore available. The sensor is onboard the TET-1 satellite, part of the German Aerospace Center (DLR) FireBird mission. TET-1 images (acquired every 2-3 days) from the middle infrared were used to detect fires continuously burning for almost three weeks in the protected peatlands of Sebangau National Park as well as surrounding areas with active logging and oil palm concessions. TET-1 detection capabilities were compared with MODIS active fire detection and Landsat burned area algorithms. Fire dynamics, including fire front propagation speed and area burned, were investigated. We show that TET-1 has improved detection capabilities over MODIS in monitoring low-intensity peatland fire fronts through thick smoke and haze. Analysis of fire dynamics revealed that the largest burned areas resulted from fire front lines started from multiple locations, and the highest propagation speeds were in excess of 500 m/day (all over peat > 2m deep). Fires were found to occur most often in concessions that contained drainage infrastructure but were not cleared prior to the fire season. Benefits of implementing this sensor system to improve current fire management techniques are discussed. Near real-time fire detection together with enhanced fire behavior monitoring capabilities would not only improve firefighting efforts, but also benefit analysis of fire impact on tropical peatlands, greenhouse gas emission estimations as well as mitigation measures to reduce severe fire events in the future.

Fire in the Pliocene: a Record from the Southwest Pacific Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosell-Melé, A.; Moraleda, N.; Peterson, L.; Lawrence, K. T.

2015-12-01

There is a growing recognition of the importance of wildfires in the Earth system. The IPCC 5AR concluded that extensive areas of the world will increase substantially their probability to fire in the near future. This issue is of difficult evaluation given the multiplicity drivers of fire, including anthropogenic factors, and because fire was impossible to observe and analyse as a global phenomenon until well into the satellite era. The study of the Pliocene may however afford some glimpses to this issue as one of the best ancient-climate analogues of present-day and future greenhouse-warming conditions. The incidence of fire in the Pliocene has not been assessed in much detail. In fact, fossil evidence for fire activity over the last 50+ Ma from the Eocene through to the present day is scant, and is chiefly based on the presence of charred materials, or charcoal, which provides a partial perspective of fire occurrence, and the development of pyrophytic biomes such as savannahs and shrublands. Marine charcoal records, from widely separated geographic regions (North Pacific, Eastern south Atlantic, South China Sea), indicate low but significant fire activity throughout the Cenozoic until the late Miocene or Pliocene, when it increased, sometimes together with the rise of pyrophytic biomes. An alternative to the study of charcoal records is the analysis of polyaromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), which are also generated in biomass combustion processes but are associated to soot and integrate the occurrence of fire over large regional provinces. One of the most abundant is retene, formed from the thermal degradation of resins. We have quantified PAHs in Site ODP 1125 which spans the Pliocene-Pleistocene, on the north slope of Chatham Rise, 600 km east of New Zealand's South Island. PAHs have been identified throughout the record, and namely during colder climatic episodes. Their abundance appears tightly linked to that of other terrigenous biomarkers like the n-alkanes, which are likely to result from changes in fluvial and aeolian inputs. Overall, they appear to increase from the Pliocene to present indicating a shift in fire regimes, although the role of transport processes in modulating fluxes of terrigenous biomarkers need to be investigated further.

Managing fire and fuels in a warmer climate

Treesearch

David L. Peterson

2010-01-01

This historical perspective on fire provides a window into the future of fire in the Pacific Northwest. Although fire will always be more common in the interior portion of the region, a warmer climate could bring more fire to the westside of the Cascade Range where summers are typically dry and will probably become drier. If future climate resembles the climate now...

Forest Fire Research--Hindsight and Foresight

Treesearch

C. E. Van Wagner

1987-01-01

The evolution of Forest fire research in Canada first is examined through the works of Wright and Beall, at the Petawawa National Forestry Institute in Ontario, then some lessons are drawn from the past that ought to bear on the future. Some opinions are delivered on the future course of research in fire danger rating, prescribed fire and the impacts of fire on the...

A century of Amazon burning driven by Atlantic climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Makou, M.; Thompson, L. G.; Davis, M. E.; Eglinton, T. I.

2011-12-01

Very little is known about annual burning trends in the Amazon Basin prior to remote sensing of fires beginning in the late 1970's. Fires reduce Amazon forest biomass and species richness, release pollutant aerosols, and impact the carbon cycle, compelling further investigation of fire-climate dynamics. We measured organic compounds derived from vegetation burning in ice core samples from the Quelccaya Ice Cap in Peru at better than annual resolution to reconstruct wet and dry season burning throughout the Twentieth Century. Variations in the abundance of methyl hexadecanoate, which is produced by thermal alteration of vascular plant alkanoic acids, were used as a proxy for past fire activity. Concentrations of this compound in Quelccaya ice varied strongly on seasonal, interannual, and decadal time scales over the last 100 years, with high-amplitude dry season variability and muted, decadal-scale changes in wet season fire activity. Decade-long periods of repeatedly enhanced burning occurred during the 1930's and 1960's when dry season precipitation was perpetually reduced, as evidenced by low stages of the Rio Negro. These decadal trends suggest that changes in dry season precipitation drive fire activity in the western Amazon and highlight the potential of Amazon forests to undergo repeated strong burning. Fires occurred during years when sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the north tropical Atlantic were elevated and the north-south tropical Atlantic SST gradient was enhanced; this SST pattern likely displaced the intertropical convergence zone northward, driving subsidence and drought in the western and southern Amazon basin. Thus, our novel ice core record suggests that Amazon forest fire activity during the Twentieth Century was driven primarily by Atlantic climate processes, and future forest health will depend heavily on the evolution of tropical climate.

Climate Change and Mountain Community Fire Management in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

All, J.; Medler, M.; Cole, R. J.; Arques, S.; Schmitt, C. G.

2014-12-01

In the central Andes of Peru, climate change is altering fire risk through changes in local meteorology and fuel loading. Greater moisture and favorable growing conditions are increasing vegetative productivity, which in turn increases fuel loads. This process is accentuated during El Nino events and potentially results in increased fire occurrence and frequency during relatively dry La Nina events. Park officials are concerned about the ramification of the changes on local ecology and tourist use of the resources. However, using a time-series of two different products from the MODIS Terra and Aqua platforms (Active Fire and Burned Area), TRMM 3B43 precipitation data, and Multivariate ENSO Index data we document fire occurrence and extent from 2000 to 2010 and our analysis indicates that fires are burning exclusively during winter months when there are no natural ignition sources. Globally, fire is used in conjunction with grazing to improve the regeneration and yield of grasses. During our interviews, locals claimed to only set fires in the buffer zone outside of the park, but our analysis indicates that the buffer zone rarely burns and that most fires begin within the park and only occasionally move into the buffer zones. Additionally, we determined that although this is small-scale fire activity every year, overall fire is having a very minor effect on local systems. The park service must develop programs to work with local grazing stakeholders to better limit the impacts of fire, while also address the negative perceptions from tourists in the future. In this instance, fire perception and fire reality are not the same and the challenge for resource managers is how to reconcile these two factors in order to more effectively manage the parklands.

Contrasting spatial patterns in active-fire and fire-suppressed Mediterranean climate old-growth mixed conifer forests.

PubMed

Fry, Danny L; Stephens, Scott L; Collins, Brandon M; North, Malcolm P; Franco-Vizcaíno, Ernesto; Gill, Samantha J

2014-01-01

In Mediterranean environments in western North America, historic fire regimes in frequent-fire conifer forests are highly variable both temporally and spatially. This complexity influenced forest structure and spatial patterns, but some of this diversity has been lost due to anthropogenic disruption of ecosystem processes, including fire. Information from reference forest sites can help management efforts to restore forests conditions that may be more resilient to future changes in disturbance regimes and climate. In this study, we characterize tree spatial patterns using four-ha stem maps from four old-growth, Jeffrey pine-mixed conifer forests, two with active-fire regimes in northwestern Mexico and two that experienced fire exclusion in the southern Sierra Nevada. Most of the trees were in patches, averaging six to 11 trees per patch at 0.007 to 0.014 ha(-1), and occupied 27-46% of the study areas. Average canopy gap sizes (0.04 ha) covering 11-20% of the area were not significantly different among sites. The putative main effects of fire exclusion were higher densities of single trees in smaller size classes, larger proportion of trees (≥ 56%) in large patches (≥ 10 trees), and decreases in spatial complexity. While a homogenization of forest structure has been a typical result from fire exclusion, some similarities in patch, single tree, and gap attributes were maintained at these sites. These within-stand descriptions provide spatially relevant benchmarks from which to manage for structural heterogeneity in frequent-fire forest types.

A stochastic Forest Fire Model for future land cover scenarios assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

D'Andrea, M.; Fiorucci, P.; Holmes, T. P.

2010-10-01

Land cover is affected by many factors including economic development, climate and natural disturbances such as wildfires. The ability to evaluate how fire regimes may alter future vegetation, and how future vegetation may alter fire regimes, would assist forest managers in planning management actions to be carried out in the face of anticipated socio-economic and climatic change. In this paper, we present a method for calibrating a cellular automata wildfire regime simulation model with actual data on land cover and wildfire size-frequency. The method is based on the observation that many forest fire regimes, in different forest types and regions, exhibit power law frequency-area distributions. The standard Drossel-Schwabl cellular automata Forest Fire Model (DS-FFM) produces simulations which reproduce this observed pattern. However, the standard model is simplistic in that it considers land cover to be binary - each cell either contains a tree or it is empty - and the model overestimates the frequency of large fires relative to actual landscapes. Our new model, the Modified Forest Fire Model (MFFM), addresses this limitation by incorporating information on actual land use and differentiating among various types of flammable vegetation. The MFFM simulation model was tested on forest types with Mediterranean and sub-tropical fire regimes. The results showed that the MFFM was able to reproduce structural fire regime parameters for these two regions. Further, the model was used to forecast future land cover. Future research will extend this model to refine the forecasts of future land cover and fire regime scenarios under climate, land use and socio-economic change.

Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California.

PubMed

Mann, Michael L; Batllori, Enric; Moritz, Max A; Waller, Eric K; Berck, Peter; Flint, Alan L; Flint, Lorraine E; Dolfi, Emmalee

2016-01-01

The costly interactions between humans and wildfires throughout California demonstrate the need to understand the relationships between them, especially in the face of a changing climate and expanding human communities. Although a number of statistical and process-based wildfire models exist for California, there is enormous uncertainty about the location and number of future fires, with previously published estimates of increases ranging from nine to fifty-three percent by the end of the century. Our goal is to assess the role of climate and anthropogenic influences on the state's fire regimes from 1975 to 2050. We develop an empirical model that integrates estimates of biophysical indicators relevant to plant communities and anthropogenic influences at each forecast time step. Historically, we find that anthropogenic influences account for up to fifty percent of explanatory power in the model. We also find that the total area burned is likely to increase, with burned area expected to increase by 2.2 and 5.0 percent by 2050 under climatic bookends (PCM and GFDL climate models, respectively). Our two climate models show considerable agreement, but due to potential shifts in rainfall patterns, substantial uncertainty remains for the semiarid inland deserts and coastal areas of the south. Given the strength of human-related variables in some regions, however, it is clear that comprehensive projections of future fire activity should include both anthropogenic and biophysical influences. Previous findings of substantially increased numbers of fires and burned area for California may be tied to omitted variable bias from the exclusion of human influences. The omission of anthropogenic variables in our model would overstate the importance of climatic ones by at least 24%. As such, the failure to include anthropogenic effects in many models likely overstates the response of wildfire to climatic change.

Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California

PubMed Central

Batllori, Enric; Moritz, Max A.; Waller, Eric K.; Berck, Peter; Flint, Alan L.; Flint, Lorraine E.; Dolfi, Emmalee

2016-01-01

The costly interactions between humans and wildfires throughout California demonstrate the need to understand the relationships between them, especially in the face of a changing climate and expanding human communities. Although a number of statistical and process-based wildfire models exist for California, there is enormous uncertainty about the location and number of future fires, with previously published estimates of increases ranging from nine to fifty-three percent by the end of the century. Our goal is to assess the role of climate and anthropogenic influences on the state’s fire regimes from 1975 to 2050. We develop an empirical model that integrates estimates of biophysical indicators relevant to plant communities and anthropogenic influences at each forecast time step. Historically, we find that anthropogenic influences account for up to fifty percent of explanatory power in the model. We also find that the total area burned is likely to increase, with burned area expected to increase by 2.2 and 5.0 percent by 2050 under climatic bookends (PCM and GFDL climate models, respectively). Our two climate models show considerable agreement, but due to potential shifts in rainfall patterns, substantial uncertainty remains for the semiarid inland deserts and coastal areas of the south. Given the strength of human-related variables in some regions, however, it is clear that comprehensive projections of future fire activity should include both anthropogenic and biophysical influences. Previous findings of substantially increased numbers of fires and burned area for California may be tied to omitted variable bias from the exclusion of human influences. The omission of anthropogenic variables in our model would overstate the importance of climatic ones by at least 24%. As such, the failure to include anthropogenic effects in many models likely overstates the response of wildfire to climatic change. PMID:27124597

Changes in future fire regimes under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thonicke, Kirsten; von Bloh, Werner; Lutz, Julia; Knorr, Wolfgang; Wu, Minchao; Arneth, Almut

2013-04-01

Fires are expected to change under future climate change, climatic fire is is increasing due to increase in droughts and heat waves affecting vegetation productivity and ecosystem function. Vegetation productivity influences fuel production, but can also limit fire spread. Vegetation-fire models allow investigating the interaction between wildfires and vegetation dynamics, thus non-linear effects between changes in fuel composition and production on fire as well as changes in fire regimes on fire-related plant mortality and fuel combustion. Here we present results from simulation experiments, where the vegetation-fire models LPJmL-SPITFIRE and LPJ-GUESS are applied to future climate change scenarios from regional climate models in Europe and Northern Africa. Climate change impacts on fire regimes, vegetation dynamics and carbon fluxes are quantified and presented. New fire-prone regions are mapped and changes in fire regimes of ecosystems with a long-fire history are analyzed. Fuel limitation is likely to increase in Mediterranean-type ecosystems, indicating non-linear connection between increasing fire risk and fuel production. Increased warming in temperate ecosystems in Eastern Europe and continued fuel production leads to increases not only in climatic fire risk, but also area burnt and biomass burnt. This has implications for fire management, where adaptive capacity to this new vulnerability might be limited.

Holocene Fire, Climate, and Geomorphic Response: Perspectives From the Past and Indications for the Future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meyer, G. A.; Pierce, J. L.; Frechette, J. D.; New, J.; Jull, A.

2006-12-01

Increased wildfire activity has accompanied late 20th-century to present warming across the diverse conifer forests of western North America. In ponderosa pine forests in particular, large, severe wildfires and ensuing erosion and debris flows appear unprecedented in light of tree-ring fire-scar records, and are often attributed to increased stand density following Euro-American settlement and fire suppression starting in the late 1800s. Yet, presettlement periods in fire-scar records correspond to mostly cooler Little Ice Age climates, when we expect that severe fires may be less probable. AMS 14C dating of fire-related alluvial-fan deposits provides a longer-term context for assessing links between fire, climate, erosion, and anthropogenic change. Infrequent high-severity fire is typical of cool, high-elevation Yellowstone National Park (YNP). Fire-related debris flows were common in YNP 2350-2000 cal yr BP and in Medieval time 1050-650 BP, both relatively warm periods at many sites across the Northern Hemisphere. Drier, low-elevation ponderosa forests in central Idaho also experienced severe fires and debris flows at these times, and ~25% of fan aggradation in the last 4000 yr occurred via postfire debris flows within the 400-yr Medieval period containing widespread, multidecadal droughts (Cook et al. 2004). Few fire-related deposits in YNP date to the Little Ice Age and prior cold episodes ca. 1400 and 2800 BP. At these same times, thin charcoal-bearing deposits indicate frequent low-severity fires in Idaho, where cooler, effectively wetter climates promoted growth of grass and fine fuels that promoted surface fires in the typically dry summers of this region. Initial data from varied forest types in the monsoonal (dry spring, wet summer) climate of the Sacramento Mountains, New Mexico, indicate voluminous fire-related sedimentation 6000-4500 BP, consistent with a warm middle Holocene. Fire-induced debris flows were less frequent in the late Holocene, but indicate that some severe fires affected ponderosa pine-dominated forests. Therefore, modern postfire debris flows are not without precedent in any of these areas, where fire has been an important catalyst for episodic erosion. Each record indicates an increased probability of severe fire with warmer climates. As greenhouse gas increases are virtually assured over the next century, impacts on fire and erosion have likely just begun. Earlier snowmelt accompanying warming lengthens the fire season in much of the Rocky Mountains, including YNP and central Idaho (Westerling et al. 2006). In ponderosa and similar forests where surface fires were suppressed by humans, increased stand density compounds the effect of warming. Increasing temperatures may also heighten precipitation intensity, producing greater postfire erosion. Although Holocene history provides imperfect analogs for a uniquely anthropogenic future, the sensitivity of fire regimes to past warming portends future increases in severe fires and geomorphic change.

Differences in Human Versus Lightning Fires with Human Proximity at Two Spatial Scales in Interior Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Calef, M. P.; Varvak, A.; McGuire, A. D.

2017-12-01

The boreal forest contains significant amounts of carbon in its biomass and soils and is currently responding to a rapidly changing climate. This is leading to warmer temperatures, drier conditions and larger and more frequent wildfires in western North America. However, the fire regime is also affected by direct human activities through suppression, ignition, and land use changes. Models are important predictive tools for understanding future conditions but they are based on regional generalizations of wildfire behavior and do not account for the complexity of human-fire interactions. In order to achieve a better understanding of the human influence on fires and how human fires differ from lightning fires, we analyzed both in regard to human proximity at two spatial scales (the Fairbanks subregion and Interior Alaska) using ArcGIS and quantitative analysis methods. We found that area burned is increasing across the region at 3% per year and is driven by increase in area burned by lightning while human-caused area burned has been decreasing recently especially in the WUI near Fairbanks. Human fires differed from lightning fires in several ways: they occurred significantly closer to settlements and highways, burned for a shorter duration, and were not as restricted to a brief seasonal window. The fire regime in the much more populated Fairbanks subregion has been altered by human activity: it experienced substantially more human fire ignitions along with a larger area burned though the human influence decreases with distance. This study provides important insights into spatial patterns of human influences on fires and provides useful information for fire modeling and fire management.

Future CO2 emissions and electricity generation from proposed coal-fired power plants in India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fofrich, R.; Shearer, C.; Davis, S. J.

2017-12-01

India represents a critical unknown in global projections of future CO2 emissions due to its growing population, industrializing economy, and large coal reserves. In this study, we assess existing and proposed construction of coal-fired power plants in India and evaluate their implications for future energy production and emissions in the country. In 2016, India had 369 coal-fired power plants under development totaling 243 gigawatts (GW) of generating capacity. These coal-fired power plants would increase India's coal-fired generating capacity by 123% and would exceed India's projected electricity demand. Therefore, India's current proposals for new coal-fired power plants would be forced to retire early or operate at very low capacity factors and/or would prevent India from meeting its goal of producing at least 40% of its power from renewable sources by 2030. In addition, future emissions from proposed coal-fired power plants would exceed India's climate commitment to reduce its 2005 emissions intensity 33% - 35% by 2030.

ESA fire_cci product assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heil, Angelika; Yue, Chao; Mouillot, Florent; Storm, Thomas; Chuvieco, Emilio; Ramo Sanchez, Ruben; Kaiser, Johannes W.

2017-04-01

Vegetation fires are a major disturbance in the Earth System. Fires change the biophysical properties and dynamics of ecosystems and alter terrestrial carbon pools. By altering the atmosphere's composition, fire emissions exert a significant climate forcing. To realistically model past and future changes of the Earth System, fire disturbances must be taken into account. Related modelling efforts require consistent global burned area observations covering at least 10 to 20 years. Guided by the specific requirements of a wide range of end users, the ESA fire_cci project has computed a new global burned area dataset. It applies a newly developed spectral change detection algorithm upon the ENVISAT-MERIS archive. The algorithm relies on MODIS active fire information as "seed". It comprises a pixel burned area product (spatial resolution of 333 m) with date detection information and a biweekly grid product at 0.25 degree spatial resolution. We compare fire_cci burned area with other global burned area products (MCD64 Collection 6, MCD45, GFED4, GFED4s and GEOLAND) and a set of active fires data (hotspots from MODIS, TRMM, AATSR and fire radiative power from GFAS). The analysis of patterns of agreement and disagreement between fire_cci and other products provides a better understanding of product characteristics and uncertainties. The intercomparison of the 2005-2011 fire_cci time series shows a close agreement with GFED4 data in terms of global burned area and the general spatial and temporal patterns. Pronounced differences, however, emerge for specific regions or fire events. Burned area mapped by fire_cci tends to be notably higher in regions where small agricultural fires predominate. The improved detection of small agricultural fires by fire_cci can be related to the increased spatial resolution of the MERIS sensor (333 m compared to 500 in MODIS). This is illustrated in detail using the example of the extreme 2006 spring fires in Eastern Europe.

Current and Future Impacts of Wildfires on PM2.5 and Public Health in Colorado

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Y.; Strickland, M.; Fu, J. S.; Geng, G.; Chang, H. H.; Liu, Y.

2017-12-01

In recent decades, the Western United States has seen heightened wildfire activity, characterized by a higher frequency of large wildfires a longer fire season, larger fire size, and a greater total area burned. With projected temperature increases, soil moisture reduction, and more frequent air stagnation, the burden of wildfires on air quality and public health will likely increase. With state-of-the-art climate and air quality models; ground and satellite measurements; and detailed health information, we will investigate the impacts of historical and future wildfires on air quality and public health in Colorado under various climate change scenarios and population growth patterns. As the first step of this project, we developed a Bayesian fusion model with satellite aerosol, cloud and fire data as well as CMAQ simulation results to estimate PM2.5 and ozone concentrations during the fire season of 2011 - 2014 at 1 km spatial resolution. These exposure estimates will be used together with emergency department (ED) visits and acute hospitalizations data in Colorado to develop region-specific concentration-response (C-R) functions. These C-R functions in combination with projected future PM2.5 and O3 will be used in the EPA BenMAP framework to estimate the impacts of future wildfires on public health. This research addresses an important link between climate and aerosol research and could significantly increase our understanding of the implications of climate change for PM and public health in the Rocky Mountains Region.

A stochastic forest fire model for future land cover scenarios assessment

Treesearch

M. D' Andrea; P. Fiorucci; T.P. Holmes

2011-01-01

Land cover is affected by many factors including economic development, climate and natural disturbances such as wildfires. The ability to evaluate how fire regimes may alter future vegetation, and how future vegetation may alter fire regimes, would assist forest managers in planning management actions to be carried out in the face of anticipated socio-economic and...

Implementing microscopic charcoal in a global climate-aerosol model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gilgen, Anina; Lohmann, Ulrike; Brügger, Sandra; Adolf, Carole; Ickes, Luisa

2017-04-01

Information about past fire activity is crucial to validate fire models and to better understand their deficiencies. Several paleofire records exist, among them ice cores and sediments, which preserve fire tracers like levoglucosan, vanillic acid, or charcoal particles. In this work, we implement microscopic charcoal particles (maximum dimension 10-100 μm) into the global climate-aerosol model ECHAM6.3HAM2.3. Since we are not aware of any reliable estimates of microscopic charcoal emissions, we scaled black carbon emissions from GFAS to capture the charcoal fluxes from a calibration dataset. After that, model results were compared with a validation dataset. The coarse model resolution (T63L31; 1.9°x1.9°) impedes the model to capture local variability of charcoal fluxes. However, variability on the global scale is pronounced due to highly-variable fire emissions. In future, we plan to model charcoal fluxes in the past 1-2 centuries using fire emissions provided from fire models. Furthermore, we intend to compare modelled charcoal fluxes from prescribed fire emissions with those calculated by an interactive fire model.

Using GRACE-Derived Water and Moisture Products as a Predictive Tool for Fire Response in the Contiguous United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rousseau, N. J.; Jensen, D.; Zajic, B.; Rodell, M.; Reager, J. T., II

2015-12-01

Understanding the relationship between wildfire activity and soil moisture in the United States has been difficult to assess, with limited ability to determine areas that are at high risk. This limitation is largely due to complex environmental factors at play, especially as they relate to alternating periods of wet and dry conditions, and the lack of remotely-sensed products. Recent drought conditions and accompanying low Fuel Moisture Content (FMC) have led to disastrous wildfire outbreaks causing economic loss, property damage, and environmental degradation. Thus, developing a programmed toolset to assess the relationship between soil moisture, which contributes greatly to FMC and fire severity, can establish the framework for determining overall wildfire risk. To properly evaluate these parameters, we used data assimilated from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and data from the Fire Program Analysis fire-occurrence database (FPA FOD) to determine the extent soil moisture affects fire activity. Through these datasets, we produced correlation and regression maps at a coarse resolution of 0.25 degrees for the contiguous United States. These fire-risk products and toolsets proved the viability of this methodology, allowing for the future incorporation of more GRACE-derived water parameters, MODIS vegetation indices, and other environmental datasets to refine the model for fire risk. Additionally, they will allow assessment to national-scale early fire management and provide responders with a predictive tool to better employ early decision-support to areas of high risk during regions' respective fire season(s).

The human dimension of fire regimes on Earth.

PubMed

Bowman, David M J S; Balch, Jennifer; Artaxo, Paulo; Bond, William J; Cochrane, Mark A; D'Antonio, Carla M; Defries, Ruth; Johnston, Fay H; Keeley, Jon E; Krawchuk, Meg A; Kull, Christian A; Mack, Michelle; Moritz, Max A; Pyne, Stephen; Roos, Christopher I; Scott, Andrew C; Sodhi, Navjot S; Swetnam, Thomas W; Whittaker, Robert

2011-12-01

Humans and their ancestors are unique in being a fire-making species, but 'natural' (i.e. independent of humans) fires have an ancient, geological history on Earth. Natural fires have influenced biological evolution and global biogeochemical cycles, making fire integral to the functioning of some biomes. Globally, debate rages about the impact on ecosystems of prehistoric human-set fires, with views ranging from catastrophic to negligible. Understanding of the diversity of human fire regimes on Earth in the past, present and future remains rudimentary. It remains uncertain how humans have caused a departure from 'natural' background levels that vary with climate change. Available evidence shows that modern humans can increase or decrease background levels of natural fire activity by clearing forests, promoting grazing, dispersing plants, altering ignition patterns and actively suppressing fires, thereby causing substantial ecosystem changes and loss of biodiversity. Some of these contemporary fire regimes cause substantial economic disruptions owing to the destruction of infrastructure, degradation of ecosystem services, loss of life, and smoke-related health effects. These episodic disasters help frame negative public attitudes towards landscape fires, despite the need for burning to sustain some ecosystems. Greenhouse gas-induced warming and changes in the hydrological cycle may increase the occurrence of large, severe fires, with potentially significant feedbacks to the Earth system. Improved understanding of human fire regimes demands: (1) better data on past and current human influences on fire regimes to enable global comparative analyses, (2) a greater understanding of different cultural traditions of landscape burning and their positive and negative social, economic and ecological effects, and (3) more realistic representations of anthropogenic fire in global vegetation and climate change models. We provide an historical framework to promote understanding of the development and diversification of fire regimes, covering the pre-human period, human domestication of fire, and the subsequent transition from subsistence agriculture to industrial economies. All of these phases still occur on Earth, providing opportunities for comparative research.

The human dimension of fire regimes on Earth

PubMed Central

Bowman, David M J S; Balch, Jennifer; Artaxo, Paulo; Bond, William J; Cochrane, Mark A; D'Antonio, Carla M; DeFries, Ruth; Johnston, Fay H; Keeley, Jon E; Krawchuk, Meg A; Kull, Christian A; Mack, Michelle; Moritz, Max A; Pyne, Stephen; Roos, Christopher I; Scott, Andrew C; Sodhi, Navjot S; Swetnam, Thomas W; Whittaker, Robert

2011-01-01

Humans and their ancestors are unique in being a fire-making species, but ‘natural’ (i.e. independent of humans) fires have an ancient, geological history on Earth. Natural fires have influenced biological evolution and global biogeochemical cycles, making fire integral to the functioning of some biomes. Globally, debate rages about the impact on ecosystems of prehistoric human-set fires, with views ranging from catastrophic to negligible. Understanding of the diversity of human fire regimes on Earth in the past, present and future remains rudimentary. It remains uncertain how humans have caused a departure from ‘natural’ background levels that vary with climate change. Available evidence shows that modern humans can increase or decrease background levels of natural fire activity by clearing forests, promoting grazing, dispersing plants, altering ignition patterns and actively suppressing fires, thereby causing substantial ecosystem changes and loss of biodiversity. Some of these contemporary fire regimes cause substantial economic disruptions owing to the destruction of infrastructure, degradation of ecosystem services, loss of life, and smoke-related health effects. These episodic disasters help frame negative public attitudes towards landscape fires, despite the need for burning to sustain some ecosystems. Greenhouse gas-induced warming and changes in the hydrological cycle may increase the occurrence of large, severe fires, with potentially significant feedbacks to the Earth system. Improved understanding of human fire regimes demands: (1) better data on past and current human influences on fire regimes to enable global comparative analyses, (2) a greater understanding of different cultural traditions of landscape burning and their positive and negative social, economic and ecological effects, and (3) more realistic representations of anthropogenic fire in global vegetation and climate change models. We provide an historical framework to promote understanding of the development and diversification of fire regimes, covering the pre-human period, human domestication of fire, and the subsequent transition from subsistence agriculture to industrial economies. All of these phases still occur on Earth, providing opportunities for comparative research. PMID:22279247

The human dimension of fire regimes on Earth

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bowman, David M.J.S.; Balch, Jennifer; Artaxo, Paulo; Bond, William J.; Cochrane, Mark A.; D'Antonio, Carla M.; DeFries, Ruth; Johnston, Fay H.; Keeley, Jon E.; Krawchuk, Meg A.; Kull, Christian A.; Michelle, Mack; Moritz, Max A.; Pyne, Stephen; Roos, Christopher I.; Scott, Andrew C.; Sodhi, Navjot S.; Swetnam, Thomas W.

2011-01-01

Humans and their ancestors are unique in being a fire-making species, but 'natural' (i.e. independent of humans) fires have an ancient, geological history on Earth. Natural fires have influenced biological evolution and global biogeochemical cycles, making fire integral to the functioning of some biomes. Globally, debate rages about the impact on ecosystems of prehistoric human-set fires, with views ranging from catastrophic to negligible. Understanding of the diversity of human fire regimes on Earth in the past, present and future remains rudimentary. It remains uncertain how humans have caused a departure from 'natural' background levels that vary with climate change. Available evidence shows that modern humans can increase or decrease background levels of natural fire activity by clearing forests, promoting grazing, dispersing plants, altering ignition patterns and actively suppressing fires, thereby causing substantial ecosystem changes and loss of biodiversity. Some of these contemporary fire regimes cause substantial economic disruptions owing to the destruction of infrastructure, degradation of ecosystem services, loss of life, and smoke-related health effects. These episodic disasters help frame negative public attitudes towards landscape fires, despite the need for burning to sustain some ecosystems. Greenhouse gas-induced warming and changes in the hydrological cycle may increase the occurrence of large, severe fires, with potentially significant feedbacks to the Earth system. Improved understanding of human fire regimes demands: (1) better data on past and current human influences on fire regimes to enable global comparative analyses, (2) a greater understanding of different cultural traditions of landscape burning and their positive and negative social, economic and ecological effects, and (3) more realistic representations of anthropogenic fire in global vegetation and climate change models. We provide an historical framework to promote understanding of the development and diversification of fire regimes, covering the pre-human period, human domestication of fire, and the subsequent transition from subsistence agriculture to industrial economies. All of these phases still occur on Earth, providing opportunities for comparative research.

Future inhibition of ecosystem productivity by increasing wildfire pollution over boreal North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yue, X.; Strada, S.; Unger, N.

2017-12-01

Biomass burning is an important source of tropospheric ozone (O3) and aerosols, which can affect vegetation photosynthesis through stomatal uptake (for O3) and light scattering and meteorological variations (for aerosols). Climate change will significantly increase wildfire activity in boreal North America by the midcentury, while little is known about the impacts of enhanced emissions on the terrestrial carbon budget. Here, combining site-level and satellite observations and a carbon-chemistry-climate model, we estimate the impacts of fire emitted O3 and aerosols on net primary productivity (NPP) over boreal North America. Fire emissions are calculated based on an ensemble projection from 13 climate models. In the present day, wildfire enhances surface O3 by 2 ppbv (7%) and aerosol optical depth (AOD) at 550 nm by 0.03 (26%) in the summer. By midcentury, boreal area burned is predicted to increase by 66%, contributing more O3 (13%) and aerosols (37%). Fire O3 causes negligible impacts on NPP because ambient O3 concentration is far below the damaging thresholds. Fire aerosols reduce surface solar radiation but enhance atmospheric absorption, resulting in enhanced air stability and intensified regional drought. The domain of this drying is confined to the North in the present day, but extends southward by 2050 due to increased fire emissions. Consequently, wildfire aerosols enhance NPP by 72 Tg C yr-1 in the present day but decrease NPP by 118 Tg C yr-1 in the future, mainly because of the soil moisture perturbations. Our results suggest that future wildfire may accelerate boreal carbon loss, not only through direct emissions, but also through the biophysical impacts of fire aerosols.

Concepts for Future Large Fire Modeling

Treesearch

A. P. Dimitrakopoulos; R. E. Martin

1987-01-01

A small number of fires escape initial attack suppression efforts and become large, but their effects are significant and disproportionate. In 1983, of 200,000 wildland fires in the United States, only 4,000 exceeded 100 acres. However, these escaped fires accounted for roughly 95 percent of wildfire-related costs and damages (Pyne, 1984). Thus, future research efforts...

Implications of emission inventory choice for modeling fire-related pollution in the U.S.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koplitz, S. N.; Nolte, C. G.; Pouliot, G.

2017-12-01

Wildland fires are a major source of fine particulate matter (PM2.5), one of the most harmful ambient pollutants for human health globally. Within the U.S., wildland fires can account for more than 30% of total annual PM2.5 emissions. In order to represent the influence of fire emissions on atmospheric composition, regional and global chemical transport models (CTMs) rely on fire emission inventories developed from estimates of burned area (i.e. fire size and location). Burned area can be estimated using a range of top-down and bottom-up approaches, including satellite-derived remote sensing and on-the-ground incident reports. While burned area estimates agree with each other reasonably well in the western U.S. (within 20-30% for most years during 2002-2014), estimates for the southern U.S. vary by more than a factor of 3. Differences in burned area estimation methods lead to significant variability in the spatial and temporal allocation of emissions across fire emission inventory platforms. In this work, we implement fire emission estimates for 2011 from three different products - the USEPA National Emission Inventory (NEI), the Fire INventory of NCAR (FINN), and the Global Fire Emission Database (GFED4s) - into the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model to quantify and characterize differences in simulated fire-related PM2.5 and ozone concentrations across the contiguous U.S. due solely to the emission inventory used. Preliminary results indicate that the estimated contribution to national annual average PM2.5 from wildland fire in 2011 is highest using GFED4s emissions (1.0 µg m-3) followed by NEI (0.7 µg m-3) and FINN (0.3 µg m-3), with comparisons varying significantly by region and season. Understanding the sensitivity of modeling fire-related PM2.5 and ozone in the U.S. to fire emission inventory choice will inform future efforts to assess the implications of present and future fire activity for air quality and human health at national and global scales.

Reducing Community Vulnerability to Wildland Fires in Southern California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keeley, J. E.

2010-12-01

In the US fires are not treated like other hazards such as earthquakes but rather as preventable through landscape fuel treatments and aggressive fire suppression. In southern California extreme fire weather has made it impossible to control all fires and thus loss of homes and lives is a constant threat to communities. There is growing evidence that indicate we are not likely to ever eliminate fires on these landscapes. Thus, it is time to reframe the fire problem and think of fires like we do with other natural hazards such as earthquakes. We do not attempt to stop earthquakes, rather the primary emphasis is on altering human infrastructure in ways that minimize community vulnerability. In other words we need to change our approach from risk elimination to risk management. This approach means we accept that we cannot eliminate fires but rather learn to live with fire by communities becoming more fire adapted. We potentially can make great strides in reducing community vulnerability by finding those factors with high impacts and are sensitive to changes in management. Presently, decision makers have relatively little guidance about which of these is likely to have the greatest impact. Future reductions in fire risk to communities requires we address both wildland and urban elements that contribute to destructive losses. Damage risk or D is determined by: D = f (I, S, E, G, H) where I = the probability of a fire starting in the landscape S = the probability of the fire reaching a size sufficient to reach the urban environment E = probability of it encroaching into the urban environment G = probability of fire propagating within the built environment H = probability of a fire, once within the built environment, resulting in the destruction of a building. In southern California, reducing I through more strategic fire prevention has potential for reducing fire risk. There are many ignition sources that could be reduced, such as replacing power line ignitions with underground lines, strategically employing arson patrols during Santa Ana wind events, enforcing regulations on power equipment use in wildland areas, k-rail barriers along roads to reduce fire spread into wildland areas etc. S, or the probability of fire reaching urban environments has historically been the primary focus of state and federal fire management activities. There is a need for greater focus on understanding the most strategic application of wildland fuel treatments. E, the probability of fire encroaching into the urban environment, has largely been addressed in the past by attention to wildland-urban interface (WUI) fuel treatments. The one factor that has perhaps the greatest potential for impacting E are patterns of urban growth, both in strategic placement and spatial patterning within communities, and this is an area where alternative future growth scenarios could have huge impacts on fire outcomes. G, the chance of fire propagating within the urban environment is a function of urban fuels, which include both home construction and landscaping. This area has the potential for effecting large changes in fire losses dependent upon future regulations on plantings in the urban environment.

Post-oil-spill fires at Ugbomro (Niger Delta): a new vista in soil-pollution studies.

PubMed

Osuji, Leo C; Ukale, Eseoghene E

2005-10-01

Reconnaissance of the post-oil-spill, fire-scourged site at Ugbomro, in the Niger Delta, was contingent upon the loud public outcry and galvanizing hue that ensued the widespread conflagration. Sampling was carried out by the grid technique, and fire-scourged soils and their unaffected controls were analyzed. Contrary to the 'celebrated' opinion of some that the fires improvised bush fallowing for cropping, the site had witnessed severe impoverishment as evidenced by the hitherto neglected insidious impact of such infernos on soil macronutrients. Alterations in physico-chemical properties (pH, conductivity, etc.) provided adequate bases for this conclusion, and offered broad explanations for the paucity of macronutrients in affected soils. For instance, a pH range of 3.1-3.8 hindered N2 fixation and other metabolic activities that enhance mineralization. Elaeis guineensis in a density of 3 stands/m2 at the control site was the only tree-form not charred beyond recognition.Against future fires, it is important to strengthen contingencies for more-expedient clean-up responses to oil spills to severe possibilities of in situ conflagrations. Nutrient supplementations, revegetation, and site surveillance should disengage the 'unsighted fingers' of sabotage. A careful husbandry of these measures might re-establish nutrient stability, and forestall future re-occurrence of such effacing incidents.

Contrasting Spatial Patterns in Active-Fire and Fire-Suppressed Mediterranean Climate Old-Growth Mixed Conifer Forests

PubMed Central

Fry, Danny L.; Stephens, Scott L.; Collins, Brandon M.; North, Malcolm P.; Franco-Vizcaíno, Ernesto; Gill, Samantha J.

2014-01-01

In Mediterranean environments in western North America, historic fire regimes in frequent-fire conifer forests are highly variable both temporally and spatially. This complexity influenced forest structure and spatial patterns, but some of this diversity has been lost due to anthropogenic disruption of ecosystem processes, including fire. Information from reference forest sites can help management efforts to restore forests conditions that may be more resilient to future changes in disturbance regimes and climate. In this study, we characterize tree spatial patterns using four-ha stem maps from four old-growth, Jeffrey pine-mixed conifer forests, two with active-fire regimes in northwestern Mexico and two that experienced fire exclusion in the southern Sierra Nevada. Most of the trees were in patches, averaging six to 11 trees per patch at 0.007 to 0.014 ha−1, and occupied 27–46% of the study areas. Average canopy gap sizes (0.04 ha) covering 11–20% of the area were not significantly different among sites. The putative main effects of fire exclusion were higher densities of single trees in smaller size classes, larger proportion of trees (≥56%) in large patches (≥10 trees), and decreases in spatial complexity. While a homogenization of forest structure has been a typical result from fire exclusion, some similarities in patch, single tree, and gap attributes were maintained at these sites. These within-stand descriptions provide spatially relevant benchmarks from which to manage for structural heterogeneity in frequent-fire forest types. PMID:24586472

Assessing the effects of fire disturbances on ecosystems: A scientific agenda for research and management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schmoldt, D.L.; Peterson, D.L.; Keane, R.E.; Lenihan, J.M.; McKenzie, D.; Weise, D.R.; Sandberg, D.V.

1999-01-01

A team of fire scientists and resource managers convened 17-19 April 1996 in Seattle, Washington, to assess the effects of fire disturbance on ecosystems. Objectives of this workshop were to develop scientific recommendations for future fire research and management activities. These recommendations included a series of numerically ranked scientific and managerial questions and responses focusing on (1) links among fire effects, fuels, and climate; (2) fire as a large-scale disturbance; (3) fire-effects modeling structures; and (4) managerial concerns, applications, and decision support. At the present time, understanding of fire effects and the ability to extrapolate fire-effects knowledge to large spatial scales are limited, because most data have been collected at small spatial scales for specific applications. Although we clearly need more large-scale fire-effects data, it will be more expedient to concentrate efforts on improving and linking existing models that simulate fire effects in a georeferenced format while integrating empirical data as they become available. A significant component of this effort should be improved communication between modelers and managers to develop modeling tools to use in a planning context. Another component of this modeling effort should improve our ability to predict the interactions of fire and potential climatic change at very large spatial scales. The priority issues and approaches described here provide a template for fire science and fire management programs in the next decade and beyond.

Feasibility of mercury removal from simulated flue gas by activated chars made from poultry manures

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Increased emphasis on reduction of mercury emissions from coal fired electric power plants has resulted in environmental regulations that may in the future require application of activated carbons as mercury sorbents for mercury removal. At the same time, the quantity of poultry manure generated eac...

Principles of effective USA federal fire management plans

USGS Publications Warehouse

Meyer, Marc D.; Roberts, Susan L.; Wills, Robin; Brooks, Matthew L.; Winford, Eric M.

2015-01-01

Federal fire management plans are essential implementation guides for the management of wildland fire on federal lands. Recent changes in federal fire policy implementation guidance and fire science information suggest the need for substantial changes in federal fire management plans of the United States. Federal land management agencies are also undergoing land management planning efforts that will initiate revision of fire management plans across the country. Using the southern Sierra Nevada as a case study, we briefly describe the underlying framework of fire management plans, assess their consistency with guiding principles based on current science information and federal policy guidance, and provide recommendations for the development of future fire management plans. Based on our review, we recommend that future fire management plans be: (1) consistent and compatible, (2) collaborative, (3) clear and comprehensive, (4) spatially and temporally scalable, (5) informed by the best available science, and (6) flexible and adaptive. In addition, we identify and describe several strategic guides or “tools” that can enhance these core principles and benefit future fire management plans in the following areas: planning and prioritization, science integration, climate change adaptation, partnerships, monitoring, education and communication, and applied fire management. These principles and tools are essential to successfully realize fire management goals and objectives in a rapidly changing world.

Airborne forest fire research

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mattingly, G. S.

1974-01-01

The research relating to airborne fire fighting systems is reviewed to provide NASA/Langley Research Center with current information on the use of aircraft in forest fire operations, and to identify research requirements for future operations. A literature survey, interview of forest fire service personnel, analysis and synthesis of data from research reports and independent conclusions, and recommendations for future NASA-LRC programs are included.

Regional air quality impacts of future fire emissions in Sumatra and Kalimantan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marlier, Miriam E.; DeFries, Ruth S.; Kim, Patrick S.; Gaveau, David L. A.; Koplitz, Shannon N.; Jacob, Daniel J.; Mickley, Loretta J.; Margono, Belinda A.; Myers, Samuel S.

2015-05-01

Fire emissions associated with land cover change and land management contribute to the concentrations of atmospheric pollutants, which can affect regional air quality and climate. Mitigating these impacts requires a comprehensive understanding of the relationship between fires and different land cover change trajectories and land management strategies. We develop future fire emissions inventories from 2010-2030 for Sumatra and Kalimantan (Indonesian Borneo) to assess the impact of varying levels of forest and peatland conservation on air quality in Equatorial Asia. To compile these inventories, we combine detailed land cover information from published maps of forest extent, satellite fire radiative power observations, fire emissions from the Global Fire Emissions Database, and spatially explicit future land cover projections using a land cover change model. We apply the sensitivities of mean smoke concentrations to Indonesian fire emissions, calculated by the GEOS-Chem adjoint model, to our scenario-based future fire emissions inventories to quantify the different impacts of fires on surface air quality across Equatorial Asia. We find that public health impacts are highly sensitive to the location of fires, with emissions from Sumatra contributing more to smoke concentrations at population centers across the region than Kalimantan, which had higher emissions by more than a factor of two. Compared to business-as-usual projections, protecting peatlands from fires reduces smoke concentrations in the cities of Singapore and Palembang by 70% and 40%, and by 60% for the Equatorial Asian region, weighted by the population in each grid cell. Our results indicate the importance of focusing conservation priorities on protecting both forested (intact or logged) peatlands and non-forested peatlands from fire, even after considering potential leakage of deforestation pressure to other areas, in order to limit the impact of fire emissions on atmospheric smoke concentrations and subsequent health effects.

Demographic controls of future global fire risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knorr, W.; Arneth, A.; Jiang, L.

2016-08-01

Wildfires are an important component of terrestrial ecosystem ecology but also a major natural hazard to societies, and their frequency and spatial distribution must be better understood. At a given location, risk from wildfire is associated with the annual fraction of burned area, which is expected to increase in response to climate warming. Until recently, however, only a few global studies of future fire have considered the effects of other important global environmental change factors such as atmospheric CO2 levels and human activities, and how these influence fires in different regions. Here, we contrast the impact of climate change and increasing atmospheric CO2 content on burned area with that of demographic dynamics, using ensembles of climate simulations combined with historical and projected population changes under different socio-economic development pathways for 1901-2100. Historically, humans notably suppressed wildfires. For future scenarios, global burned area will continue to decline under a moderate emissions scenario, except for low population growth and fast urbanization, but start to increase again from around mid-century under high greenhouse gas emissions. Contrary to common perception, we find that human exposure to wildfires increases in the future mainly owing to projected population growth in areas with frequent wildfires, rather than by a general increase in burned area.

Progress in Fire Detection and Suppression Technology for Future Space Missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Friedman, Robert; Urban, David L.

2000-01-01

Fire intervention technology (detection and suppression) is a critical part of the strategy of spacecraft fire safety. This paper reviews the status, trends, and issues in fire intervention, particularly the technology applied to the protection of the International Space Station and future missions beyond Earth orbit. An important contribution to improvements in spacecraft fire safety is the understanding of the behavior of fires in the non-convective (microgravity) environment of Earth-orbiting and planetary-transit spacecraft. A key finding is the strong influence of ventilation flow on flame characteristics, flammability limits and flame suppression in microgravity. Knowledge of these flow effects will aid the development of effective processes for fire response and technology for fire suppression.

The Future of wildland fire management in a world of rapid change and great uncertainty: Overview of a futures research project

Treesearch

David N. Bengston; Robert L. Olson; Leif A. DeVaney

2012-01-01

Past efforts to examine the future of wildland fire management have relied heavily on expertise from within the wildfire community. But changes in seemingly unrelated external factors - outside of the world of wildfire and fire management - can have unexpected and profound effects. This paper describes an ongoing sh1dy of the...

Proceedings: workshop on fire, people, and the central hardwoods landscape

Treesearch

Daniel A. Yaussy; [comp.

2000-01-01

Contains 18 papers and 16 poster abstracts on the history of fire, fire ecology, fire and ecosystem management, and fire and the future presented at the workshop on fire, people, and the central hardwoods landscape.

Contributions of microbial activity and ash deposition to post-fire nitrogen availability in a pine savanna

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ficken, Cari D.; Wright, Justin P.

2017-01-01

Many ecosystems experience drastic changes to soil nutrient availability associated with fire, but the magnitude and duration of these changes are highly variable among vegetation and fire types. In pyrogenic pine savannas across the southeastern United States, pulses of soil inorganic nitrogen (N) occur in tandem with ecosystem-scale nutrient losses from prescribed burns. Despite the importance of this management tool for restoring and maintaining fire-dependent plant communities, the contributions of different mechanisms underlying fire-associated changes to soil N availability remain unclear. Pulses of N availability following fire have been hypothesized to occur through (1) changes to microbial cycling rates and (2) direct ash deposition. Here, we document fire-associated changes to N availability across the growing season in a longleaf pine savanna in North Carolina. To differentiate between possible mechanisms driving soil N pulses, we measured net microbial cycling rates and changes to soil δ15N before and after a burn. Our findings refute both proposed mechanisms: we found no evidence for changes in microbial activity, and limited evidence that ash deposition could account for the increase in ammonium availability to more than 5-25 times background levels. Consequently, we propose a third mechanism to explain post-fire patterns of soil N availability, namely that (3) changes to plant sink strength may contribute to ephemeral increases in soil N availability, and encourage future studies to explicitly test this mechanism.

Future projections of fire danger in Brazilian biomes in the 21st century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Libonati, Renata; Silva, Patrícia; DaCamara, Carlos; Bastos, Ana

2016-04-01

In the global context, Brazil is one of the regions more severely affected by fire occurrences, with important consequences in the global CO2 balance, the state of the Amazon forest and the ecological diversity of the region. Brazil is also one of the few regions experiencing a raise in annual mean temperature above 2.5o during the 20th century, which may further increase between 2o and 7o until 2100 and, likely, be accompanied by a decrease in precipitation [1]. As the fire occurrence and severity largely depends on these two variables, it is worth assessing the evolution of fire danger for the coming decades. In order to obtain a detailed characterization of the future fire patterns in the different biomes of Brazil, we use outputs from a regional-downscaling of the EC-Earth climate model at 0.44 degrees spatial resolution for two future scenarios, an intermediate (RCP4.5) and a more severe (RCP8.5) one. We use a fire danger index specifically developed for the Brazilian climate and biome characteristics, the IFR from INPE. This index relies on values of maximum temperature, accumulated precipitation over different periods, minimum relative humidity and vegetation cover to estimate the likelihood of fire occurrence. We find a systematic increase of the days with critical fire risk, which is more pronounced in RCP8.5 and mostly affects months when fire activity takes place. Temperature increase is the most determinant factor for the increase in fire danger in the dry regions of savannah and shrubland, a result to be expected as fuel is already very dry. [1] Collins, M., R. Knutti, J. Arblaster, J.-L. Dufresne, T. Fichefet, P. Friedlingstein, X. Gao, W.J. Gutowski, T. Johns, G. Krinner, M. Shongwe, C. Tebaldi, A.J. Weaver and M. Wehner, 2013: Long-term Climate Change: Projections, Commitments and Irreversibility. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.

Climate change and fire effects on a prairie-woodland ecotone: projecting species range shifts with a dynamic global vegetation model

USGS Publications Warehouse

King, David A.; Bachelet, Dominique M.; Symstad, Amy J.

2013-01-01

Large shifts in species ranges have been predicted under future climate scenarios based primarily on niche-based species distribution models. However, the mechanisms that would cause such shifts are uncertain. Natural and anthropogenic fires have shaped the distributions of many plant species, but their effects have seldom been included in future projections of species ranges. Here, we examine how the combination of climate and fire influence historical and future distributions of the ponderosa pine–prairie ecotone at the edge of the Black Hills in South Dakota, USA, as simulated by MC1, a dynamic global vegetation model that includes the effects of fire, climate, and atmospheric CO2 concentration on vegetation dynamics. For this purpose, we parameterized MC1 for ponderosa pine in the Black Hills, designating the revised model as MC1-WCNP. Results show that fire frequency, as affected by humidity and temperature, is central to the simulation of historical prairies in the warmer lowlands versus woodlands in the cooler, moister highlands. Based on three downscaled general circulation model climate projections for the 21st century, we simulate greater frequencies of natural fire throughout the area due to substantial warming and, for two of the climate projections, lower relative humidity. However, established ponderosa pine forests are relatively fire resistant, and areas that were initially wooded remained so over the 21st century for most of our future climate x fire management scenarios. This result contrasts with projections for ponderosa pine based on climatic niches, which suggest that its suitable habitat in the Black Hills will be greatly diminished by the middle of the 21st century. We hypothesize that the differences between the future predictions from these two approaches are due in part to the inclusion of fire effects in MC1, and we highlight the importance of accounting for fire as managed by humans in assessing both historical species distributions and future climate change effects.

Climate change and fire effects on a prairie-woodland ecotone: projecting species range shifts with a dynamic global vegetation model.

PubMed

King, David A; Bachelet, Dominique M; Symstad, Amy J

2013-12-01

Large shifts in species ranges have been predicted under future climate scenarios based primarily on niche-based species distribution models. However, the mechanisms that would cause such shifts are uncertain. Natural and anthropogenic fires have shaped the distributions of many plant species, but their effects have seldom been included in future projections of species ranges. Here, we examine how the combination of climate and fire influence historical and future distributions of the ponderosa pine-prairie ecotone at the edge of the Black Hills in South Dakota, USA, as simulated by MC1, a dynamic global vegetation model that includes the effects of fire, climate, and atmospheric CO2 concentration on vegetation dynamics. For this purpose, we parameterized MC1 for ponderosa pine in the Black Hills, designating the revised model as MC1-WCNP. Results show that fire frequency, as affected by humidity and temperature, is central to the simulation of historical prairies in the warmer lowlands versus woodlands in the cooler, moister highlands. Based on three downscaled general circulation model climate projections for the 21st century, we simulate greater frequencies of natural fire throughout the area due to substantial warming and, for two of the climate projections, lower relative humidity. However, established ponderosa pine forests are relatively fire resistant, and areas that were initially wooded remained so over the 21st century for most of our future climate x fire management scenarios. This result contrasts with projections for ponderosa pine based on climatic niches, which suggest that its suitable habitat in the Black Hills will be greatly diminished by the middle of the 21st century. We hypothesize that the differences between the future predictions from these two approaches are due in part to the inclusion of fire effects in MC1, and we highlight the importance of accounting for fire as managed by humans in assessing both historical species distributions and future climate change effects.

Climate change and fire effects on a prairie–woodland ecotone: projecting species range shifts with a dynamic global vegetation model

PubMed Central

King, David A; Bachelet, Dominique M; Symstad, Amy J

2013-01-01

Large shifts in species ranges have been predicted under future climate scenarios based primarily on niche-based species distribution models. However, the mechanisms that would cause such shifts are uncertain. Natural and anthropogenic fires have shaped the distributions of many plant species, but their effects have seldom been included in future projections of species ranges. Here, we examine how the combination of climate and fire influence historical and future distributions of the ponderosa pine–prairie ecotone at the edge of the Black Hills in South Dakota, USA, as simulated by MC1, a dynamic global vegetation model that includes the effects of fire, climate, and atmospheric CO2 concentration on vegetation dynamics. For this purpose, we parameterized MC1 for ponderosa pine in the Black Hills, designating the revised model as MC1-WCNP. Results show that fire frequency, as affected by humidity and temperature, is central to the simulation of historical prairies in the warmer lowlands versus woodlands in the cooler, moister highlands. Based on three downscaled general circulation model climate projections for the 21st century, we simulate greater frequencies of natural fire throughout the area due to substantial warming and, for two of the climate projections, lower relative humidity. However, established ponderosa pine forests are relatively fire resistant, and areas that were initially wooded remained so over the 21st century for most of our future climate x fire management scenarios. This result contrasts with projections for ponderosa pine based on climatic niches, which suggest that its suitable habitat in the Black Hills will be greatly diminished by the middle of the 21st century. We hypothesize that the differences between the future predictions from these two approaches are due in part to the inclusion of fire effects in MC1, and we highlight the importance of accounting for fire as managed by humans in assessing both historical species distributions and future climate change effects. PMID:24455138

Fire and Smoke Model Evaluation Experiment: Coordination of a study to improve smoke modeling for fire operations within the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

French, N. H. F.; Ottmar, R. D.; Brown, T. J.; Larkin, N. K.

2017-12-01

The Fire and Smoke Model Evaluation Experiment (FASMEE) is an integrative research effort to identify and collect critical measurements to improve operational wildland fire and smoke prediction systems. FASMEE has two active phases and one suggested phase. Phase 1 is the analysis and planning process to assess the current state of fire-plume-smoke modeling and to determine the critical measurements required to evaluate and improve these operational fire and smoke models. As the major deliverable for Phase 1, a study plan has been completed that describes the measurement needs, field campaigns, and command, safety and air space de-confliction plans necessary to complete the FASMEE project. Phase 2 is a set of field campaigns to collect data during 2019-2022. Future Improvements would be a set of analyses and model improvements based on the data collected within Phase 2 that is dependent on identifying future funding sources. In this presentation, we will review the FASMEE Study Plan and detailed measurements and conditions expected for the four to five proposed research burns. The recommended measurements during Phase 2 span the four interrelated disciplines of FASMEE: fuels and consumption, fire behavior and energy, plume dynamics and meteorology, and smoke emissions, chemistry, and transport. Fuel type, condition, and consumption during wildland fire relates to several fire impacts including radiative heating, which provides the energy that drives fire dynamics. Local-scale meteorology is an important factor which relates to atmospheric chemistry, dispersion, and transport. Plume dynamics provide the connection between fire behavior and far-field smoke dispersion, because it determines the vertical distribution of the emissions. Guided by the data needs and science questions generated during Phase 1, three wildland fire campaigns were selected. These included the western wildfire campaign (rapid deployment aimed at western wildfires supporting NOAA, NASA, and NSF smoke flights), southwestern campaign (targeting high intensity prescribed fires), and southeastern campaign (targeting large and higher than average fuel loadings with important smoke management relevancy).

Reconstructions of Fire Activity in North America and Europe over the Past 250 Years: A comparison of the Global Charcoal Database with Historical Records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Magi, B. I.; Marlon, J. R.; Mouillot, F.; Daniau, A. L.; Bartlein, P. J.; Schaefer, A.

2017-12-01

Fire is intertwined with climate variability and human activities in terms of both its causes and consequences, and the most complete understanding will require a multidisciplinary approach. The focus in this study is to compare data-based records of variability in climate and human activities, with fire and land cover change records over the past 250 years in North America and Europe. The past 250 years is a critical period for contextualizing the present-day impact of human activities on climate. Data are from the Global Charcoal Database and from historical reconstructions of past burning. The GCD is comprised of sediment records of charcoal accumulation rates collected around the world by dozens of researchers, and facilitated by the PAGES Global Paleofire Working Group. The historical reconstruction extends back to 1750 CE is based on literature and government records when available, and completed with non-charcoal proxies including tree ring scars or storylines when data are missing. The key data sets are independent records, and the methods and results are independent of any climate or fire-model simulations. Results are presented for Europe, and subsets of North America. Analysis of fire trends from GCD and the historical reconstruction shows broad agreement, with some regional variations as expected. Western USA and North America in general show the best agreement, with departures in the GCD and historical reconstruction fire trends in the present day that may reflect limits in the data itself. Eastern North America shows agreement with an increase in fire from 1750 to 1900, and a strong decreasing trend thereafter. We present ideas for why the trends agree and disagree relative to historical events, and to the sequence of land-cover change in the regions of interest. Together with careful consideration of uncertainties in the data, these results can be used to constrain Earth System Model simulations of both past fire, which explicitly incorporate historical fire emissions, and the pathways of future fire on a warmer planet.

Incorporating anthropogenic influences into fire probability models: Effects of development and climate change on fire activity in California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mann, M.; Moritz, M.; Batllori, E.; Waller, E.; Krawchuk, M.; Berck, P.

2014-12-01

The costly interactions between humans and natural fire regimes throughout California demonstrate the need to understand the uncertainties surrounding wildfire, especially in the face of a changing climate and expanding human communities. Although a number of statistical and process-based wildfire models exist for California, there is enormous uncertainty about the location and number of future fires. Models estimate an increase in fire occurrence between nine and fifty-three percent by the end of the century. Our goal is to assess the role of uncertainty in climate and anthropogenic influences on the state's fire regime from 2000-2050. We develop an empirical model that integrates novel information about the distribution and characteristics of future plant communities without assuming a particular distribution, and improve on previous efforts by integrating dynamic estimates of population density at each forecast time step. Historically, we find that anthropogenic influences account for up to fifty percent of the total fire count, and that further housing development will incite or suppress additional fires according to their intensity. We also find that the total area burned is likely to increase but at a slower than historical rate. Previous findings of substantially increased numbers of fires may be tied to the assumption of static fuel loadings, and the use of proxy variables not relevant to plant community distributions. We also find considerable agreement between GFDL and PCM model A2 runs, with decreasing fire counts expected only in areas of coastal influence below San Francisco and above Los Angeles. Due to potential shifts in rainfall patterns, substantial uncertainty remains for the semiarid deserts of the inland south. The broad shifts of wildfire between California's climatic regions forecast in this study point to dramatic shifts in the pressures plant and human communities will face by midcentury. The information provided by this study reduces the level of uncertainty surrounding the influence that natural and anthropogenic systems have on wildfire.

ESA Fire CCI product assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heil, Angelika; Yue, Chao; Mouillot, Florent; Storm, Thomas; Chuvieco, Emilio; Kaiser, Johannes

2016-04-01

Vegetation fires are a major disturbance in the Earth System. Fires change the biophysical properties and dynamics of ecosystems and alter terrestrial carbon pools. By altering the atmosphere's composition, fire emissions exert a significant climate forcing. To realistically model past and future changes of the Earth System, fire disturbances must be taken into account. Related modelling efforts require consistent global burned area observations covering at least 10 to 20 years. Guided by the specific requirements of a wide range of end users, the ESA fire_cci project is currently computing a new global burned area dataset. It applies a newly developed spectral change detection algorithm upon the full ENVISAT-MERIS archive (2002 to 2012). The algorithm relies on MODIS active fire information as "seed". A first, formally validated version has been released for the period 2006 to 2008. It comprises a pixel burned area product (spatial resolution of 333 m) with date detection information and a biweekly grid product at 0.5 degree spatial resolution. We compare fire_cci burned area with other global burned area products (MCD64, GFED4(s), GEOLAND) and a set of active fires data (hotspots from MODIS, TRMM, AATSR and fire radiative power from GFAS). Output from the ongoing processing of the full MERIS timeseries will be incorporated into the study, as far as available. The analysis of patterns of agreement and disagreement between fire_cci and other products provides a better understanding of product characteristics and uncertainties. The intercomparison of the 2006-2008 fire_cci time series shows a close agreement with GFED4 data in terms of global burned area and the general spatial and temporal patterns. Pronounced differences, however, emerge for specific regions or fire events. Burned area mapped by fire_cci tends to be notably higher in regions where small agricultural fires predominate. The improved detection of small agricultural fires by fire_cci can be related to the increased spatial resolution of the MERIS sensor (333 m compared to 500 in MODIS). This is illustrated in detail using the example of the extreme 2006 spring fires in Eastern Europe.

Land cover, more than monthly fire weather, drives fire-size distribution in Southern Québec forests: Implications for fire risk management.

PubMed

Marchal, Jean; Cumming, Steve G; McIntire, Eliot J B

2017-01-01

Fire activity in North American forests is expected to increase substantially with climate change. This would represent a growing risk to human settlements and industrial infrastructure proximal to forests, and to the forest products industry. We modelled fire size distributions in southern Québec as functions of fire weather and land cover, thus explicitly integrating some of the biotic interactions and feedbacks in a forest-wildfire system. We found that, contrary to expectations, land-cover and not fire weather was the primary driver of fire size in our study region. Fires were highly selective on fuel-type under a wide range of fire weather conditions: specifically, deciduous forest, lakes and to a lesser extent recently burned areas decreased the expected fire size in their vicinity compared to conifer forest. This has large implications for fire risk management in that fuels management could reduce fire risk over the long term. Our results imply, for example, that if 30% of a conifer-dominated landscape were converted to hardwoods, the probability of a given fire, occurring in that landscape under mean fire weather conditions, exceeding 100,000 ha would be reduced by a factor of 21. A similarly marked but slightly smaller effect size would be expected under extreme fire weather conditions. We attribute the decrease in expected fire size that occurs in recently burned areas to fuel availability limitations on fires spread. Because regenerating burned conifer stands often pass through a deciduous stage, this would also act as a negative biotic feedback whereby the occurrence of fires limits the size of nearby future for some period of time. Our parameter estimates imply that changes in vegetation flammability or fuel availability after fires would tend to counteract shifts in the fire size distribution favoring larger fires that are expected under climate warming. Ecological forecasts from models neglecting these feedbacks may markedly overestimate the consequences of climate warming on fire activity, and could be misleading. Assessments of vulnerability to climate change, and subsequent adaptation strategies, are directly dependent on integrated ecological forecasts. Thus, we stress the need to explicitly incorporate land-cover's direct effects and feedbacks in simulation models of coupled climate-fire-fuels systems.

Climate- and disturbance-driven changes in vegetation composition and structure limit future potential carbon storage in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henne, Paul D.; Hawbaker, Todd J.; Zhao, Feng; Huang, Chengquan; Berryman, Erin M.; Zhu, Zhiliang

2016-04-01

The Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE) provides unique opportunities to understand how changing climate, land use, and disturbance affect ecosystem carbon balance. The GYE is one of the largest, most intact ecosystems in the United States. However, distinct management histories on National Park, National Forest, and private lands, elevational climate gradients, and variable fire activity, have created a mosaic of stand ages and forest types. It is uncertain how greenhouse forcing may alter the carbon balance of the GYE. Whereas increasing temperatures may enhance productivity and perpetuate the GYE as a carbon sink, climate-driven increases in fire frequency may offset productivity gains by limiting biomass accumulation. We investigated how changes in fire frequency and size may affect vegetation dynamics and carbon sequestration potential in the GYE using the LANDIS-II dynamic landscape vegetation model. LANDIS-II provides sufficient spatial resolution to capture landscape-level variation in forest biomass and forest types (i.e. 90 × 90 m grid cells), but can integrate disturbance regimes and vegetation dynamics across the entire GYE (92,000 km2). We initiated our simulations with biomass and stand conditions that preceded the exceptional 1988 fire, when 16% of the GYE burned. We inferred the biomass, species abundances, and stand demographics of each model cell by combining satellite imagery with forest inventory data, and developed two fire regime scenarios from historical fire records. We developed a historic wildfire scenario with infrequent fires by excluding 1988 from our calibration of fire sizes and frequencies, and a future scenario with more frequent and larger fires by including 1988 in our calibrations. Fire frequency increased in all forest types in our future scenario, with a 152% increase in the annual forest area burned relative to observed area burned during recent decades. However, the changes in fire frequency varied among forest types, with the largest increases in lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta; 332% increase) and spruce/fir (Picea engelmannii, Abies lasiocarpa; 243% increase) stands. In model runs with the historic fire regime, average stand age and live biomass remained consistent with pre-1988 values during the 200-year simulation period; biomass increased significantly only in recently-logged areas. In contrast, a marked shift to younger stands with lower biomass occurred in the future fire scenario. Average stand age declined from 112 years to 31 years in lodgepole pine stands, and from 191 years to 65 years in spruce/fir stands, with consequent reductions in living biomass. A smaller shift in stand age was simulated for douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) stands (i.e. 121 to 92 years). These fire-driven changes in stand age and biomass coincided with important shifts in species abundances. Specifically, lodgepole pine stands replaced large areas previously dominated by spruce and fir. Our results suggest that the potential for increasing the amount of fossil fuel emissions offset by carbon sequestration on public lands in the American West is limited by ongoing changes in disturbance regimes. Instead, land managers may need to consider strategies to adapt to climate change impacts.

Fire safety concerns in space operations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Friedman, Robert

1987-01-01

This paper reviews the state-of-the-art in fire control techniques and identifies important issues for continuing research, technology, and standards. For the future permanent orbiting facility, the space station, fire prevention and control calls for not only more stringent fire safety due to the long-term and complex missions, but also for simplified and flexible safety rules to accommodate the variety of users. Future research must address a better understanding of the microgravity space environment as it influences fire propagation and extinction and the application of the technology of fire detection, extinguishment, and material assessment. Spacecraft fire safety should also consider the adaptation of methods and concepts derived from aircraft and undersea experience.

Endogenous Sequential Cortical Activity Evoked by Visual Stimuli

PubMed Central

Miller, Jae-eun Kang; Hamm, Jordan P.; Jackson, Jesse; Yuste, Rafael

2015-01-01

Although the functional properties of individual neurons in primary visual cortex have been studied intensely, little is known about how neuronal groups could encode changing visual stimuli using temporal activity patterns. To explore this, we used in vivo two-photon calcium imaging to record the activity of neuronal populations in primary visual cortex of awake mice in the presence and absence of visual stimulation. Multidimensional analysis of the network activity allowed us to identify neuronal ensembles defined as groups of cells firing in synchrony. These synchronous groups of neurons were themselves activated in sequential temporal patterns, which repeated at much higher proportions than chance and were triggered by specific visual stimuli such as natural visual scenes. Interestingly, sequential patterns were also present in recordings of spontaneous activity without any sensory stimulation and were accompanied by precise firing sequences at the single-cell level. Moreover, intrinsic dynamics could be used to predict the occurrence of future neuronal ensembles. Our data demonstrate that visual stimuli recruit similar sequential patterns to the ones observed spontaneously, consistent with the hypothesis that already existing Hebbian cell assemblies firing in predefined temporal sequences could be the microcircuit substrate that encodes visual percepts changing in time. PMID:26063915

Predicting fire activity in the US over the next 50 years using new IPCC climate projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, D.; Morton, D. C.; Collatz, G. J.

2012-12-01

Fire is an integral part of the Earth system with both direct and indirect effects on terrestrial ecosystems, the atmosphere, and human societies (Bowman et al. 2009). Climate conditions regulate fire activities through a variety of ways, e.g., influencing the conditions for ignition and fire spread, changing vegetation growth and decay and thus the accumulation of fuels for combustion (Arora and Boer 2005). Our recent study disclosed the burned area (BA) in US is strongly correlated with potential evaporation (PE), a measurement of climatic dryness derived from National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) climate data (Morton et al. 2012). The correlation varies spatially and temporally. With regard to fire of peak fire seasons, Northwestern US, Great Plains and Alaska have the strongest BA/PE relationship. Using the recently released the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED) Version 3 (van der Werf et al. 2010), we showed increasing BA in the last decade in most of NCA regions. Longer time series of Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity (MTBS) (Eidenshink et al. 2007) data showed the increasing trends occurred in all NCA regions from 1984 to 2010. This relationship between BA and PE provides us the basis to predict the future fire activities in the projected climate conditions. In this study, we build spatially explicit predictors using the historic PE/BA relationship. PE from 2011 to 2060 is calculated from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) data and the historic PE/BA relationship is then used to estimate BA. This study examines the spatial pattern and temporal dynamics of the future US fires driven by new climate predictions for the next 50 years. Reference: Arora, V.K., & Boer, G.J. (2005). Fire as an interactive component of dynamic vegetation models. Journal of Geophysical Research-Biogeosciences, 110 Bowman, D.M.J.S., Balch, J.K., Artaxo, P., Bond, W.J., Carlson, J.M., Cochrane, M.A., D'Antonio, C.M., DeFries, R.S., Doyle, J.C., Harrison, S.P., Johnston, F.H., Keeley, J.E., Krawchuk, M.A., Kull, C.A., Marston, J.B., Moritz, M.A., Prentice, I.C., Roos, C.I., Scott, A.C., Swetnam, T.W., van der Werf, G.R., & Pyne, S.J. (2009). Fire in the Earth System. Science, 324, 481-484 Eidenshink, J., Schwind, B., Brewer, K., Zhu, Z.-L., Quayle, B., & Howard, S. (2007). A project for monitoring trends in burn severity. Fire Ecology Special Issue, 3 Morton, D.C., Collatz, G.J., Wang, D., Randerson, J.T., Giglio, L., & Chen, Y. (2012). Satellite-based assessment of climate controls on US burned area. Biogeosciences Discussion, 9, 7853-7892 van der Werf, G.R., Randerson, J.T., Giglio, L., Collatz, G.J., Mu, M., Kasibhatla, P.S., Morton, D.C., DeFries, R.S., Jin, Y., & van Leeuwen, T.T. (2010). Global fire emissions and the contribution of deforestation, savanna, forest, agricultural, and peat fires (1997-2009). Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 10, 11707-11735

Land cover, more than monthly fire weather, drives fire-size distribution in Southern Québec forests: Implications for fire risk management

PubMed Central

Marchal, Jean; Cumming, Steve G.; McIntire, Eliot J. B.

2017-01-01

Fire activity in North American forests is expected to increase substantially with climate change. This would represent a growing risk to human settlements and industrial infrastructure proximal to forests, and to the forest products industry. We modelled fire size distributions in southern Québec as functions of fire weather and land cover, thus explicitly integrating some of the biotic interactions and feedbacks in a forest-wildfire system. We found that, contrary to expectations, land-cover and not fire weather was the primary driver of fire size in our study region. Fires were highly selective on fuel-type under a wide range of fire weather conditions: specifically, deciduous forest, lakes and to a lesser extent recently burned areas decreased the expected fire size in their vicinity compared to conifer forest. This has large implications for fire risk management in that fuels management could reduce fire risk over the long term. Our results imply, for example, that if 30% of a conifer-dominated landscape were converted to hardwoods, the probability of a given fire, occurring in that landscape under mean fire weather conditions, exceeding 100,000 ha would be reduced by a factor of 21. A similarly marked but slightly smaller effect size would be expected under extreme fire weather conditions. We attribute the decrease in expected fire size that occurs in recently burned areas to fuel availability limitations on fires spread. Because regenerating burned conifer stands often pass through a deciduous stage, this would also act as a negative biotic feedback whereby the occurrence of fires limits the size of nearby future for some period of time. Our parameter estimates imply that changes in vegetation flammability or fuel availability after fires would tend to counteract shifts in the fire size distribution favoring larger fires that are expected under climate warming. Ecological forecasts from models neglecting these feedbacks may markedly overestimate the consequences of climate warming on fire activity, and could be misleading. Assessments of vulnerability to climate change, and subsequent adaptation strategies, are directly dependent on integrated ecological forecasts. Thus, we stress the need to explicitly incorporate land-cover’s direct effects and feedbacks in simulation models of coupled climate–fire–fuels systems. PMID:28609467

An Overview of Recent Geostationary Fire Monitoring Activities and Applications in the Western Hemisphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McRae, D. J.; Conard, S. G.; Ivanova, G. A.; Sukhinin, A. I.; Hao, W. M.; Koutzenogii, K. P.; Prins, E. M.; Schmidt, C. C.; Feltz, J. M.

2002-05-01

Over the past twenty years the international scientific research and environmental monitoring communities have recognized the vital role environmental satellites can play in detecting and monitoring active fires both regionally and around the globe for hazards applications and to better understand the extent and impact of biomass burning on the global environment. Both groups have stressed the importance of utilizing operational satellites to produce routine fire products and to ensure long-term stable records of fire activity for applications such as land-use/land cover change analyses and global climate change research. The current NOAA GOES system provides the unique opportunity to detect fires throughout the Western Hemisphere every half-hour from a series of nearly identical satellites for a period of 15+ years. This presentation will provide an overview of the GOES biomass burning monitoring program at UW-Madison Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CIMSS) with an emphasis on recent applications of the new GOES Wildfire Automated Biomass Burning Algorithm (WF_ABBA). For the past 8 years, CIMSS has utilized the GOES-8 imager to monitor biomass burning trends in South America. Since September 2000, CIMSS has been producing half-hourly fire products in real-time for most of the Western Hemisphere. The WF_ABBA half-hourly fire product is providing new insights into diurnal, spatial, seasonal and interannual fire dynamics in North, Central, and South America. In North America these products are utilized to detect and monitor wildfires in northerly and remote locations. In South America the diurnal GOES fire product is being used as an indicator of land-use and land-cover change and carbon dynamics along the borders between Brazil, Peru, and Bolivia. The Navy is assimilating the Wildfire ABBA fire product into the Navy Aerosol Analysis and Prediction System (NAAPS) to analyze and predict aerosol loading and transport as part of the NASA-ESE Fire Locating And Mapping of Burning Emissions (FLAMBE) project. Furthermore, the dissemination and use of geostationary imagery and derived fire products in the Western Hemisphere provide a glimpse of future global geostationary fire monitoring capabilities. Global geostationary active fire monitoring will be possible with the launch of the European METEOSAT (METEOrological SATellite) Second Generation (MSG) and the replacement Japanese Multi-functional Transport Satellite (MTSAT-1R) over the next two years. This global network of geostationary satellites will complement the U.S. and international suite of environmental polar-orbiting satellites.

Seasonal Forecasting of Fires across Southern Borneo, 1997-2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spessa, Allan; Field, Robert; Kaiser, Johannes; Langner, Andreas; Moore, Jonathan; Pappenberger, Florian; Siegert, Florian; Weber, Ulrich

2014-05-01

Wildfire is a fundamental Earth System process, affecting almost all biogeochemical cycles, and all vegetated biomes. Fires are naturally rare in humid tropical forests, and tropical trees are generally killed by even low-intensity fires. However, fire activity in the tropics has increased markedly over the past 15-20 years, especially in Indonesia, Amazonia, and more recently, central Africa also. Since fire is the prime tool for clearing land in the tropics, it not surprising that the increase in fire activity is strongly associated with increased levels of deforestation, which is driven mainly by world-wide demand for timber and agricultural commodities. The consequences of deforestation fires for biodiversity conservation and emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols are enormous. For example, carbon emissions from tropical biomass burning are around 20% of annual average global fossil fuel emissions. The destructive fires in Indonesia during the exceptionally strong El Niño-induced drought in late 1997 and early 1998 rank as some of the largest peak emissions events in recorded history. Past studies estimate about 1Gt of carbon was released to the atmosphere from the Indonesian fires in 1997 (which were mostly concentrated in carbon-rich forested peatlands). This amount is equivalent to about 14% of the average global annual fossil fuel emissions released during the 1990s. While not as large as the 1997-98 events, significant emissions from biomass burning have also been recorded in other (less severe) El Niño years across Indonesia, in particular, 2002, 2004, 2006 and 2009-2010. Recent climate modelling studies indicate that the frequency of El Niño events may increase under future climate change, affecting many tropical countries, including Indonesia. An increased drought frequency plus a projected increase in population and land use pressures in Indonesia, imply there will be even more fires and emissions in future across the region. However, while several studies using historical data have established negative relationships between fires and antecedent rainfall, and/or positive relationships between fires and deforestation in regions affected by El Nino, comparatively little work has attempted to predict fires and emissions in such regions. Ensemble seasonal climate forecasts issued with several months lead-time have been applied to support risk assessment systems in many fields, notably agricultural production and natural disaster management of flooding, heat waves, drought and fire. The USA, for example, has a long-standing seasonal fire danger prediction system. Fire danger monitoring systems have been operating in Indonesia for over a decade, but, as of yet, no fire danger prediction systems exist. Given the effort required to mobilise suppression and prevention measures in Indonesia, one could argue that high fire danger periods must be anticipated months in advance for mitigation and response measures to be effective. To address this need, the goal of our work was to examine the utility of seasonal rainfall forecasts in predicting severe fires in Indonesia more than one month in advance, using southern Borneo (comprising the bulk of Kalimantan) as a case study. Here we present the results of comparing seasonal forecasts of monthly rainfall from ECMWF's System 4 against i) observed rainfall (GPCP), and ii) burnt area and deforestation (MODIS, AVHRR and Landsat) across southern Borneo for the period 1997-2010. Our results demonstrate the utility of using ECMWF's seasonal climate forecasts for predicting fire activity in the region. Potential applications include improved fire mitigation and responsiveness, and improved risk assessments of biodiversity and carbon losses through fire. These are important considerations for forest protection programmes (e.g. REDD+), forest carbon markets and forest (re)insurance enterprises.

Symposium 9: Rocky Mountain futures: preserving, utilizing, and sustaining Rocky Mountain ecosystems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Baron, Jill S.; Seastedt, Timothy; Fagre, Daniel B.; Hicke, Jeffrey A.; Tomback, Diana; Garcia, Elizabeth; Bowen, Zachary H.; Logan, Jesse A.

2013-01-01

In 2002 we published Rocky Mountain Futures, an Ecological Perspective (Island Press) to examine the cumulative ecological effects of human activity in the Rocky Mountains. We concluded that multiple local activities concerning land use, hydrologic manipulation, and resource extraction have altered ecosystems, although there were examples where the “tyranny of small decisions” worked in a positive way toward more sustainable coupled human/environment interactions. Superimposed on local change was climate change, atmospheric deposition of nitrogen and other pollutants, regional population growth, and some national management policies such as fire suppression.

Assessing Subjective Preferences for Future Fire Research

Treesearch

James B. Davis

1987-01-01

Methods are described for making comparative valuations of future fire (or any other) research efforts when the benefits that result from some of the efforts cannot be described in dollars. The process helps research managers and scientists set priorities by using the values and beliefs of skilled fire specialists. The objective is to insure coherent decisions...

Linking Satellite-Derived Fire Counts to Satellite-Derived Weather Data in Fire Prediction Models to Forecast Extreme Fires in Siberia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Westberg, David; Soja, Amber; Stackhouse, Paul, Jr.

2010-05-01

Fire is the dominant disturbance that precipitates ecosystem change in boreal regions, and fire is largely under the control of weather and climate. Boreal systems contain the largest pool of terrestrial carbon, and Russia holds 2/3 of the global boreal forests. Fire frequency, fire severity, area burned and fire season length are predicted to increase in boreal regions under climate change scenarios. Meteorological parameters influence fire danger and fire is a catalyst for ecosystem change. Therefore to predict fire weather and ecosystem change, we must understand the factors that influence fire regimes and at what scale these are viable. Our data consists of NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC)-derived fire weather indices (FWI) and National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) surface station-derived FWI on a domain from 50°N-80°N latitude and 70°E-170°W longitude and the fire season from April through October for the years of 1999, 2002, and 2004. Both of these are calculated using the Canadian Forest Service (CFS) FWI, which is based on local noon surface-level air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and daily (noon-noon) rainfall. The large-scale (1°) LaRC product uses NASA Goddard Earth Observing System version 4 (GEOS-4) reanalysis and NASA Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GEOS-4/GPCP) data to calculate FWI. CFS Natural Resources Canada uses Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to interpolate NCDC station data and calculate FWI. We compare the LaRC GEOS- 4/GPCP FWI and CFS NCDC FWI based on their fraction of 1° grid boxes that contain satellite-derived fire counts and area burned to the domain total number of 1° grid boxes with a common FWI category (very low to extreme). These are separated by International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP) 1°x1° resolution vegetation types to determine and compare fire regimes in each FWI/ecosystem class and to estimate the fraction of each of the 18 IGBP ecosystems burned, which are dependent on the FWI. On days with fire counts, the domain total of 1°x1° grid boxes with and without daily fire counts and area burned are totaled. The fraction of 1° grid boxes with fire counts and area burned to the total number of 1° grid boxes having common FWI category and vegetation type are accumulated, and a daily mean for the burning season is calculated. The mean fire counts and mean area burned plots appear to be well related. The ultimate goal of this research is to assess the viability of large-scale (1°) data to be used to assess fire weather danger and fire regimes, so these data can be confidently used to predict future fire regimes using large-scale fire weather data. Specifically, we related large-scale fire weather, area burned, and the amount of fire-induced ecosystem change. Both the LaRC and CFS FWI showed gradual linear increase in fraction of grid boxes with fire counts and area burned with increasing FWI category, with an exponential increase in the higher FWI categories in some cases, for the majority of the vegetation types. Our analysis shows a direct correlation between increased fire activity and increased FWI, independent of time or the severity of the fire season. During normal and extreme fire seasons, we noticed the fraction of fire counts and area burned per 1° grid box increased with increasing FWI rating. Given this analysis, we are confident large-scale weather and climate data, in this case from the GEOS-4 reanalysis and the GPCP data sets, can be used to accurately assess future fire potential. This increases confidence in the ability of large-scale IPCC weather and climate scenarios to predict future fire regimes in boreal regions.

Fire Distribution in Peninsular Malaysia, Sumatra and Borneo in 2015 with Special Emphasis on Peatland Fires.

PubMed

Miettinen, Jukka; Shi, Chenghua; Liew, Soo Chin

2017-10-01

In this paper, we analyze the spatio-temporal distribution of vegetation fires in Peninsular Malaysia, Sumatra, and Borneo in the severe El Niño year of 2015, concentrating on the distribution of fires between mineral soils and peatland areas, and between land cover types in peatland areas. The results reveal that 53% of all Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) fire detections were recorded in peatlands that cover only 12% of the study area. However, fire occurrence in the peatland areas was highly dependent on land cover type. Pristine peat swamp forests (PSF) experienced only marginal fire activity (30 fire detections per 1000 km 2 ) compared to deforested undeveloped peatlands (831-915 fire detections per 1000 km 2 ). Our results also highlight the extreme fire vulnerability of the southern Sumatran and Bornean peatlands under strong El Niño conditions: 71% of all peatland hotspots were detected in the provinces of South Sumatra and Central Kalimantan, which contain 29% of peatlands in the study area. Degraded PSF and all deforested peatland land cover types, including managed areas, in the two provinces were severely affected, demonstrating how difficult it is to protect even managed drained agricultural areas from unwanted fires during dry periods. Our results thereby advocate rewetting and rehabilitation as the primary management option for highly fire prone degraded undeveloped peatland areas, whenever feasible, as a means to reduce fire risk during future dry episodes.

Fire Distribution in Peninsular Malaysia, Sumatra and Borneo in 2015 with Special Emphasis on Peatland Fires

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miettinen, Jukka; Shi, Chenghua; Liew, Soo Chin

2017-10-01

In this paper, we analyze the spatio-temporal distribution of vegetation fires in Peninsular Malaysia, Sumatra, and Borneo in the severe El Niño year of 2015, concentrating on the distribution of fires between mineral soils and peatland areas, and between land cover types in peatland areas. The results reveal that 53% of all Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) fire detections were recorded in peatlands that cover only 12% of the study area. However, fire occurrence in the peatland areas was highly dependent on land cover type. Pristine peat swamp forests (PSF) experienced only marginal fire activity (30 fire detections per 1000 km2) compared to deforested undeveloped peatlands (831-915 fire detections per 1000 km2). Our results also highlight the extreme fire vulnerability of the southern Sumatran and Bornean peatlands under strong El Niño conditions: 71% of all peatland hotspots were detected in the provinces of South Sumatra and Central Kalimantan, which contain 29% of peatlands in the study area. Degraded PSF and all deforested peatland land cover types, including managed areas, in the two provinces were severely affected, demonstrating how difficult it is to protect even managed drained agricultural areas from unwanted fires during dry periods. Our results thereby advocate rewetting and rehabilitation as the primary management option for highly fire prone degraded undeveloped peatland areas, whenever feasible, as a means to reduce fire risk during future dry episodes.

Analysis of causal factors of fire regimes in Sub-Saharan Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palumbo, I.; Lehsten, V.; Balzter, H.

2009-04-01

Wildfires are a wide spread global phenomenon. Their activity peaks in the tropical savannas, especially in the African continent, where fires are a key component of ecosystem dynamics. Fires affect the ecological balance between trees and grasses in savannas with concomitant effects on biodiversity, soil fertility and biogeochemical cycles. Large amounts of trace greenhouse gases and aerosols from wildfires are emitted each year in Africa, but the underlying dynamics of such wildfires and what drives them remain poorly understood. In general terms, the magnitude and the inter-annual variability of fire activity depend on fire frequency and its spatial distribution, also referred to as fire regimes. These are, in turn, determined by the environmental conditions at the time of burning, ignition sources, fuel type, fuel availability, and its moisture content. This study analysed the driving factors of fire regimes at continental level for a period of 5 years (2002-2007). We considered the following variables: climate (rainfall, temperature, humidity), population density, land cover and the burned areas derived from the MODIS MCD45A1 product at 500m resolution. GIS and multi-variate regression techniques were used to analyse the data. Understanding fire driving factors is fundamentally important for developing process-based simulation models of fire occurrence under future climate and environmental change scenarios. This is particularly relevant if we consider that the IPCC 4th Assessment report indicates that a change in the rainfall patterns has been observed in the last 40 years over most of Africa with a decrease of precipitation around 20-40% in West Africa and more intense and widespread droughts in Southern Africa. The simultaneous increase of temperatures can potentially lead to higher fire occurrence and modify the current fire regimes. This work contributes to climate change research with new insights and understanding about how fires are controlled by bioclimatic and demographic factors in African ecosystems.

Effects of fire suppression under a changing climate in Pacific Northwest mixed-pine forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hanan, E. J.; Tague, C.; Bart, R. R.; Kennedy, M. C.; Abatzoglou, J. T.; Kolden, C.; Adam, J. C.

2017-12-01

The frequency of large and severe wildfires has increased over recent decades in many regions across the Western U.S., including the Pacific and Inland Northwest. This increase is likely driven in large part by wildfire suppression, which has promoted fuel accumulation in western landscapes. Recent studies also suggest that anthropogenic climate change intensifies wildfire activity by increasing fuel aridity. However, the contribution of these drivers to observed changes in fire regime is not well quantified at regional scales. Understanding the relative influence of climate and fire suppression is crucial for both projecting the effects of climate change on future fire spread, and for developing site-specific fuel management strategies under a new climate paradigm. To quantify the extent to which fire suppression and climate change have contributed to increases in wildfire activity in the Pacific Northwest, we conduct a modeling experiment using the ecohydrologic model RHESSys and the coupled stochastic fire spread model WMFire. Specifically, we use historical climate inputs from GCMs, combined with fire suppression scenarios to gauge the extent to which these drivers promote the spread of severe wildfires in Johnson Creek, a large (565-km2) mixed-pine dominated subcatchment of the Southfork Salmon River; part of the larger Columbia River Basin. We run 500 model iterations for suppressed, intermediate, and unsuppressed fire management scenarios, both with and without climate change in a factorial design, focusing on fire spread surrounding two extreme fire years in Johnson Creek (1998 and 2007). After deriving fire spread "fingerprints" for each combination of possible drivers, we evaluate the extent to which these fingerprints match observations in the fire record. We expect that climate change plays a role in the spread of large and severe wildfires in Johnson Creek, but the magnitude of this effect is mediated by prior suppression. Preliminary results suggest that management strategies aimed at reducing the extent of contiguous even-aged fuels may help curtail climate-driven increases in wildfire severity in Pacific Northwest watersheds.

Use of multi-sensor active fire detections to map fires in the United States: the future of monitoring trends in burn severity

USGS Publications Warehouse

Picotte, Joshua J.; Coan, Michael; Howard, Stephen M.

2014-01-01

The effort to utilize satellite-based MODIS, AVHRR, and GOES fire detections from the Hazard Monitoring System (HMS) to identify undocumented fires in Florida and improve the Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity (MTBS) mapping process has yielded promising results. This method was augmented using regression tree models to identify burned/not-burned pixels (BnB) in every Landsat scene (1984–2012) in Worldwide Referencing System 2 Path/Rows 16/40, 17/39, and 1839. The burned area delineations were combined with the HMS detections to create burned area polygons attributed with their date of fire detection. Within our study area, we processed 88,000 HMS points (2003–2012) and 1,800 Landsat scenes to identify approximately 300,000 burned area polygons. Six percent of these burned area polygons were larger than the 500-acre MTBS minimum size threshold. From this study, we conclude that the process can significantly improve understanding of fire occurrence and improve the efficiency and timeliness of assessing its impacts upon the landscape.

Algorithm and assessment work of active fire detection based on FengYun-3C/VIRR

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Z.; Chen, F.

2017-12-01

The wildfire is one of the most destructive and uncontrollable disasters and causes huge environmental, ecological, social effects. To better serve scientific research and practical fire management, an algorithm and corresponding validation work of active fire detection based on FengYun-3C/VIRR data, which is an optical sensor onboard the Chinese polar-orbiting meteorological sun-synchronous satellite, is hereby introduced. While the main structure heritages the `contextual algorithm', some new concepts including `infrared channel slope' are introduced for better adaptions to different situations. The validation work contains three parts: 1) comparing with the current FengYun-3C fire product GFR; 2) comparing with MODIS fire products; 3) comparing with Landsat series data. Study areas are selected from different places all over the world from 2014 to 2016. The results showed great improvement on GFR files on accuracy of both positioning and detection rate. In most study areas, the results match well with MODIS products and Landsat series data (with over 85% match degree) despite the differences in imaging time. However, detection rates and match degrees in Africa and South-east Asia are not satisfied (around 70%), where the occurrences of numerous small fire events and corresponding smokes may strongly affect the results of the algorithm. This is our future research direction and one of the main improvements requires achieving.

The carbon debt from Amazon forest degradation: integrating airborne lidar, field measurements, and an ecosystem demography model.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Longo, M.; Keller, M. M.; dos-Santos, M. N.; Scaranello, M. A., Sr.; Pinagé, E. R.; Leitold, V.; Morton, D. C.

2016-12-01

Amazon deforestation has declined over the last decade, yet forest degradation from logging, fire, and fragmentation continue to impact forest carbon stocks and fluxes. The magnitude of this impact remains uncertain, and observation-based studies are often limited by short time intervals or small study areas. To better understand the long-term impact of forest degradation and recovery, we have been developing a framework that integrates field plot measurements and airborne lidar surveys into an individual- and process-based model (Ecosystem Demography model, ED). We modeled forest dynamics for three forest landscapes in the Amazon with diverse degradation histories: conventional and reduced-impact logging, logging and burning, and multiple burns. Based on the initialization with contemporary forest structure and composition, model results suggest that degraded forests rapidly recover (30 years) water and energy fluxes compared with old-growth, even at sites that were affected by multiple fires. However, degraded forests maintained different carbon stocks and fluxes even after 100 years without further disturbances, because of persistent differences in forest structure and composition. Recurrent disturbances may hinder the recovery of degraded forests. Simulations using a simple fire model entirely dependent on environmental controls indicate that the most degraded forests would take much longer to reach biomass typical of old-growth forests, because drier conditions near the ground make subsequent fires more intense and more recurrent. Fires in tropical forests are also closely related to nearby human activities; while results suggest an important feedback between fires and the microenvironment, additional work is needed to improve how the model represents the human impact on current and future fire regimes. Our study highlights that recovery of degraded forests may act as an important carbon sink, but efficient recovery depends on controlling future disturbances.

Future southcentral US wildfire probability due to climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stambaugh, Michael C.; Guyette, Richard P.; Stroh, Esther D.; Struckhoff, Matthew A.; Whittier, Joanna B.

2018-01-01

Globally, changing fire regimes due to climate is one of the greatest threats to ecosystems and society. In this paper, we present projections of future fire probability for the southcentral USA using downscaled climate projections and the Physical Chemistry Fire Frequency Model (PC2FM). Future fire probability is projected to both increase and decrease across the study region of Oklahoma, New Mexico, and Texas. Among all end-of-century projections, change in fire probabilities (CFPs) range from − 51 to + 240%. Greatest absolute increases in fire probability are shown for areas within the range of approximately 75 to 160 cm mean annual precipitation (MAP), regardless of climate model. Although fire is likely to become more frequent across the southcentral USA, spatial patterns may remain similar unless significant increases in precipitation occur, whereby more extensive areas with increased fire probability are predicted. Perhaps one of the most important results is illumination of climate changes where fire probability response (+, −) may deviate (i.e., tipping points). Fire regimes of southcentral US ecosystems occur in a geographic transition zone from reactant- to reaction-limited conditions, potentially making them uniquely responsive to different scenarios of temperature and precipitation changes. Identification and description of these conditions may help anticipate fire regime changes that will affect human health, agriculture, species conservation, and nutrient and water cycling.

Rapid landscape transformation in South Island, New Zealand, following initial Polynesian settlement

PubMed Central

McWethy, David B.; Whitlock, Cathy; Wilmshurst, Janet M.; McGlone, Matt S.; Fromont, Mairie; Li, Xun; Dieffenbacher-Krall, Ann; Hobbs, William O.; Fritz, Sherilyn C.; Cook, Edward R.

2010-01-01

Humans have altered natural patterns of fire for millennia, but the impact of human-set fires is thought to have been slight in wet closed-canopy forests. In the South Island of New Zealand, Polynesians (Māori), who arrived 700–800 calibrated years (cal y) ago, and then Europeans, who settled ∼150 cal y ago, used fire as a tool for forest clearance, but the structure and environmental consequences of these fires are poorly understood. High-resolution charcoal and pollen records from 16 lakes were analyzed to reconstruct the fire and vegetation history of the last 1,000 y. Diatom, chironomid, and element concentration data were examined to identify disturbance-related limnobiotic and biogeochemical changes within burned watersheds. At most sites, several high-severity fire events occurred within the first two centuries of Māori arrival and were often accompanied by a transformation in vegetation, slope stability, and lake chemistry. Proxies of past climate suggest that human activity alone, rather than unusually dry or warm conditions, was responsible for this increased fire activity. The transformation of scrub to grassland by Europeans in the mid-19th century triggered further, sometimes severe, watershed change, through additional fires, erosion, and the introduction of nonnative plant species. Alteration of natural disturbance regimes had lasting impacts, primarily because native forests had little or no previous history of fire and little resilience to the severity of burning. Anthropogenic burning in New Zealand highlights the vulnerability of closed-canopy forests to novel disturbance regimes and suggests that similar settings may be less resilient to climate-induced changes in the future. PMID:21149690

Wildfire air pollution hazard during the 21st century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knorr, Wolfgang; Dentener, Frank; Lamarque, Jean-François; Jiang, Leiwen; Arneth, Almut

2017-07-01

Wildfires pose a significant risk to human livelihoods and are a substantial health hazard due to emissions of toxic smoke. Previous studies have shown that climate change, increasing atmospheric CO2, and human demographic dynamics can lead to substantially altered wildfire risk in the future, with fire activity increasing in some regions and decreasing in others. The present study re-examines these results from the perspective of air pollution risk, focussing on emissions of airborne particulate matter (PM2. 5), combining an existing ensemble of simulations using a coupled fire-dynamic vegetation model with current observation-based estimates of wildfire emissions and simulations with a chemical transport model. Currently, wildfire PM2. 5 emissions exceed those from anthropogenic sources in large parts of the world. We further analyse two extreme sets of future wildfire emissions in a socio-economic, demographic climate change context and compare them to anthropogenic emission scenarios reflecting current and ambitious air pollution legislation. In most regions of the world, ambitious reductions of anthropogenic air pollutant emissions have the potential to limit mean annual pollutant PM2. 5 levels to comply with World Health Organization (WHO) air quality guidelines for PM2. 5. Worst-case future wildfire emissions are not likely to interfere with these annual goals, largely due to fire seasonality, as well as a tendency of wildfire sources to be situated in areas of intermediate population density, as opposed to anthropogenic sources that tend to be highest at the highest population densities. However, during the high-fire season, we find many regions where future PM2. 5 pollution levels can reach dangerous levels even for a scenario of aggressive reduction of anthropogenic emissions.

Vector-borne diseases on Fire Island, New York (Fire Island National Seashore Science Synthesis Paper)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ginsberg, H.S.

2005-01-01

This paper discusses eleven tick-borne and five mosquito-borne pathogens that are known to occur at FIlS, or could potentially occur. The potential for future occurrence, and ecological factors that influence occurrence, are assessed for each disease. Lyme disease is the most common vector-borne disease on Fire Island. The Lyme spirochete, Borrelia burgdorferi, is endemic in local tick and wildlife populations. Public education, personal precautions against tick bite, and prompt treatment of early-stage infections can help manage the risk of Lyme disease on Fire Island. The pathogens that cause Human Monocytic Ehrlichiosis and Tularemia have been isolated from ticks or wildlife on Fire Island, and conditions suggest that other tickborne diseases (including Babesiosis, Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever, and Human Granulocytic Ehrlichiosis) might also occur, but these are far less common than Lyme disease, if present. West Nile Virus (WNV) is the primary mosquito- borne human pathogen that is known to occur on Fire Island. Ecological conditions and recent epizootiological events suggest that WNV occurs in foci that can shift from year to year. Therefore, a surveillance program with appropriate responses to increasing epizootic activity can help manage the risk of WNV transmission on Fire Island.

Wildland fire as a self-regulating mechanism: the role of previous burns and weather in limiting fire progression.

PubMed

Parks, Sean A; Holsinger, Lisa M; Miller, Carol; Nelson, Cara R

2015-09-01

Theory suggests that natural fire regimes can result in landscapes that are both self-regulating and resilient to fire. For example, because fires consume fuel, they may create barriers to the spread of future fires, thereby regulating fire size. Top-down controls such as weather, however, can weaken this effect. While empirical examples demonstrating this pattern-process feedback between vegetation and fire exist, they have been geographically limited or did not consider the influence of time between fires and weather. The availability of remotely sensed data identifying fire activity over the last four decades provides an opportunity to explicitly quantify-the ability of wildland fire to limit the progression of subsequent fire. Furthermore, advances in fire progression mapping now allow an evaluation of how daily weather as a top-down control modifies this effect. In this study, we evaluated the ability of wildland fire to create barriers that limit the spread of subsequent fire along a gradient representing time between fires in four large study areas in the western United States. Using fire progression maps in conjunction with weather station data, we also evaluated the influence of daily weather. Results indicate that wildland fire does limit subsequent fire spread in all four study areas, but this effect decays over time; wildland fire no longer limits subsequent fire spread 6-18 years after fire, depending on the study area. We also found that the ability of fire to regulate, subsequent fire progression was substantially reduced under extreme conditions compared to moderate weather conditions in all four study areas. This study increases understanding of the spatial feedbacks that can lead to self-regulating landscapes as well as the effects of top-down controls, such as weather, on these feedbacks. Our results will be useful to managers who seek to restore natural fire regimes or to exploit recent burns when managing fire.

Simulation of air quality impacts from prescribed fires on an urban area.

PubMed

Hu, Yongtao; Odman, M Talat; Chang, Michael E; Jackson, William; Lee, Sangil; Edgerton, Eric S; Baumann, Karsten; Russell, Armistead G

2008-05-15

On February 28, 2007, a severe smoke event caused by prescribed forest fires occurred in Atlanta, GA. Later smoke events in the southeastern metropolitan areas of the United States caused by the Georgia-Florida wild forest fires further magnified the significance of forest fire emissions and the benefits of being able to accurately predict such occurrences. By using preburning information, we utilize an operational forecasting system to simulate the potential air quality impacts from two large February 28th fires. Our "forecast" predicts that the scheduled prescribed fires would have resulted in over 1 million Atlanta residents being potentially exposed to fine particle matter (PM2.5) levels of 35 microg m(-3) or higher from 4 p.m. to midnight. The simulated peak 1 h PM2.5 concentration is about 121 microg m(-3). Our study suggests that the current air quality forecasting technology can be a useful tool for helping the management of fire activities to protect public health. With postburning information, our "hindcast" predictions improved significantly on timing and location and slightly on peak values. "Hindcast" simulations also indicated that additional isoprenoid emissions from pine species temporarily triggered by the fire could induce rapid ozone and secondary organic aerosol formation during late winter. Results from this study suggest that fire induced biogenic volatile organic compounds emissions missing from current fire emissions estimate should be included in the future.

Current status and future needs of the BehavePlus Fire Modeling System

Treesearch

Patricia L. Andrews

2014-01-01

The BehavePlus Fire Modeling System is among the most widely used systems for wildland fire prediction. It is designed for use in a range of tasks including wildfire behaviour prediction, prescribed fire planning, fire investigation, fuel hazard assessment, fire model understanding, communication and research. BehavePlus is based on mathematical models for fire...

Effects of fire on major forest ecosystem processes: an overview.

PubMed

Chen, Zhong

2006-09-01

Fire and fire ecology are among the best-studied topics in contemporary ecosystem ecology. The large body of existing literature on fire and fire ecology indicates an urgent need to synthesize the information on the pattern of fire effects on ecosystem composition, structure, and functions for application in fire and ecosystem management. Understanding fire effects and underlying principles are critical to reduce the risk of uncharacteristic wildfires and for proper use of fire as an effective management tool toward management goals. This overview is a synthesis of current knowledge on major effects of fire on fire-prone ecosystems, particularly those in the boreal and temperate regions of the North America. Four closely related ecosystem processes in vegetation dynamics, nutrient cycling, soil and belowground process and water relations were discussed with emphases on fire as the driving force. Clearly, fire can shape ecosystem composition, structure and functions by selecting fire adapted species and removing other susceptible species, releasing nutrients from the biomass and improving nutrient cycling, affecting soil properties through changing soil microbial activities and water relations, and creating heterogeneous mosaics, which in turn, can further influence fire behavior and ecological processes. Fire as a destructive force can rapidly consume large amount of biomass and cause negative impacts such as post-fire soil erosion and water runoff, and air pollution; however, as a constructive force fire is also responsible for maintaining the health and perpetuity of certain fire-dependent ecosystems. Considering the unique ecological roles of fire in mediating and regulating ecosystems, fire should be incorporated as an integral component of ecosystems and management. However, the effects of fire on an ecosystem depend on the fire regime, vegetation type, climate, physical environments, and the scale of time and space of assessment. More ecosystem-specific studies are needed in future, especially those focusing on temporal and spatial variations of fire effects through long-term experimental monitoring and modeling.

Climate change and long-term fire management impacts on Australian savannas.

PubMed

Scheiter, Simon; Higgins, Steven I; Beringer, Jason; Hutley, Lindsay B

2015-02-01

Tropical savannas cover a large proportion of the Earth's land surface and many people are dependent on the ecosystem services that savannas supply. Their sustainable management is crucial. Owing to the complexity of savanna vegetation dynamics, climate change and land use impacts on savannas are highly uncertain. We used a dynamic vegetation model, the adaptive dynamic global vegetation model (aDGVM), to project how climate change and fire management might influence future vegetation in northern Australian savannas. Under future climate conditions, vegetation can store more carbon than under ambient conditions. Changes in rainfall seasonality influence future carbon storage but do not turn vegetation into a carbon source, suggesting that CO₂ fertilization is the main driver of vegetation change. The application of prescribed fires with varying return intervals and burning season influences vegetation and fire impacts. Carbon sequestration is maximized with early dry season fires and long fire return intervals, while grass productivity is maximized with late dry season fires and intermediate fire return intervals. The study has implications for management policy across Australian savannas because it identifies how fire management strategies may influence grazing yield, carbon sequestration and greenhouse gas emissions. This knowledge is crucial to maintaining important ecosystem services of Australian savannas. © 2014 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2014 New Phytologist Trust.

Economic susceptibility of fire-prone landscapes in natural protected areas of the southern Andean Range.

PubMed

Molina, Juan Ramón; Moreno, Roberto; Castillo, Miguel; Rodríguez Y Silva, Francisco

2018-04-01

Large fires are the most important disturbances at landscape-level due to their ecological and socioeconomic impacts. This study aimed to develop an approach for the assessment of the socio-economic landscape susceptibility to fire. Our methodology focuses on the integration of economic components of landscape management based on contingent valuation method (CVM) and net-value change (NVC). This former component has been estimated using depreciation rates or changes on the number of arrivals to different natural protected areas after a large fire occurrence. Landscape susceptibility concept has been motivated by the need to assist fire prevention programs and environmental management. There was a remarkable variation in annual economic value attributed to each protected area based on the CVM scenario, ranging from 40,189-46,887$/year ("Tolhuaca National Park") to 241,000-341,953$/year ("Conguillio National Park"). We added landscape susceptibility using depreciation rates or tourist arrival decrease which varied from 2.04% (low fire intensity in "Tolhuaca National Park") to 76.67% (high fire intensity in "Conguillio National Park"). The integration of this approach and future studies about vegetation resilience should seek management strategies to increase economic efficiency in the fire prevention activities. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Mechanisms of shrub encroachment into Northern Chihuahuan Desert grasslands and impacts of climate change investigated using a cellular automata model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caracciolo, Domenico; Istanbulluoglu, Erkan; Noto, Leonardo Valerio; Collins, Scott L.

2016-05-01

Arid and semiarid grasslands of southwestern North America have changed dramatically over the last 150 years as a result of woody plant encroachment. Overgrazing, reduced fire frequency, and climate change are known drivers of woody plant encroachment into grasslands. In this study, relatively simple algorithms for encroachment factors (i.e., grazing, grassland fires, and seed dispersal by grazers) are proposed and implemented in the ecohydrological Cellular-Automata Tree Grass Shrub Simulator (CATGraSS). CATGraSS is used in a 7.3 km2 rectangular domain located in central New Mexico along a zone of grassland to shrubland transition, where shrub encroachment is currently active. CATGraSS is calibrated and used to investigate the relative contributions of grazing, fire frequency, seed dispersal by herbivores and climate change on shrub abundance over a 150-year period of historical shrub encroachment. The impact of future climate change is examined using a model output that realistically represents current vegetation cover as initial condition, in a series of stochastic CATGraSS future climate simulations. Model simulations are found to be highly sensitive to the initial distribution of shrub cover. Encroachment factors more actively lead to shrub propagation within the domain when the model starts with randomly distributed individual shrubs. However, when shrubs are naturally evolved into clusters, the model response to encroachment factors is muted unless the effect of seed dispersal by herbivores is amplified. The relative contribution of different drivers on modeled shrub encroachment varied based on the initial shrub cover condition used in the model. When historical weather data is used, CATGraSS predicted loss of shrub and grass cover during the 1950 s drought. While future climate change is found to amplify shrub encroachment (∼13% more shrub cover by 2100), grazing remains the dominant factor promoting shrub encroachment. When we modeled future climate change, however, encroachment still occurred at a reduced rate in the absence of grazing along with pre-grazing fire frequency because of lower shrub water stress leading to reduced shrub mortality which increases the probability of shrub establishment.

Future fire probability modeling with climate change data and physical chemistry

Treesearch

Richard P. Guyette; Frank R. Thompson; Jodi Whittier; Michael C. Stambaugh; Daniel C. Dey

2014-01-01

Climate has a primary influence on the occurrence and rate of combustion in ecosystems with carbon-based fuels such as forests and grasslands. Society will be confronted with the effects of climate change on fire in future forests. There are, however, few quantitative appraisals of how climate will affect wildland fire in the United States. We demonstrated a method for...

The Fire and Fire Surrogates Study: Providing guidelines for fire in future forest watershed management decisions

Treesearch

Carleton B. Edminster; C. Phillip Weatherspoon; Daniel G. Neary

2000-01-01

As part of the 1998 Joint USDA/USDI Fire Science Program, the Fire and Fire Surrogates Study was proposed to establish and evaluate cross-comparisons of fuels treatment practices and techniques to reduce wildfire risk. This study evaluates prescribed fire, thinning, and various mechanical treatment methods for treating, removing, or using woody biomass. Site-specific...

Avian community responses to post-fire forest structure: implications for fire management in mixed conifer forests

Treesearch

Angela White; Patricia Manley; Gina Tarbill; T. W. Richardson; R. E. Russell; H. D. Safford; S. Z. Dobrowski

2016-01-01

Fire is a natural process and the dominant disturbance shaping plant and animal communities in many coniferous forests of the western US. Given that fire size and severity are predicted to increase in the future, it has become increasingly important to understand how wildlife responds to fire and post-fire management. The Angora Fire...

The national fire and fire surrogate study: early results and future challenges

Treesearch

Thomas A. Waldrop; James McIver

2006-01-01

Fire-adapted ecosystems today have dense plant cover and heavy fuel loads as a result of fire exclusion and other changes in land use practices. Mechanical fuel treatments and prescribed fire are powerful tools for reducing wildfire potential, but the ecological consequences of their use is unknown. The National Fire and Fire Surrogate Study examines the effects of...

Phenology-based, remote sensing of post-burn disturbance windows in rangelands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sankeya, Joel B.; Wallace, Cynthia S.A.; Ravi, Sujith

2013-01-01

Wildland fire activity has increased in many parts of the world in recent decades. Ecological disturbance by fire can accelerate ecosystem degradation processes such as erosion due to combustion of vegetation that otherwise provides protective cover to the soil surface. This study employed a novel ecological indicator based on remote sensing of vegetation greenness dynamics (phenology) to estimate variability in the window of time between fire and the reemergence of green vegetation. The indicator was applied as a proxy for short-term, post-fire disturbance windows in rangelands; where a disturbance window is defined as the time required for an ecological or geomorphic process that is altered to return to pre-disturbance levels. We examined variability in the indicator determined for time series of MODIS and AVHRR NDVI remote sensing data for a database of ∼100 historical wildland fires, with associated post-fire reseeding treatments, that burned 1990–2003 in cold desert shrub steppe of the Great Basin and Columbia Plateau of the western USA. The indicator-based estimates of disturbance window length were examined relative to the day of the year that fires burned and seeding treatments to consider effects of contemporary variability in fire regime and management activities in this environment. A key finding was that contemporary changes of increased length of the annual fire season could have indirect effects on ecosystem degradation, as early season fires appeared to result in longer time that soils remained relatively bare of the protective cover of vegetation after fires. Also important was that reemergence of vegetation did not occur more quickly after fire in sites treated with post-fire seeding, which is a strategy commonly employed to accelerate post-fire vegetation recovery and stabilize soil. Future work with the indicator could examine other ecological factors that are dynamic in space and time following disturbance – such as nutrient cycling, carbon storage, microbial community composition, or soil hydrology – as a function of disturbance windows, possibly using simulation modeling and historical wildfire information.

Holocene fire occurrence and alluvial responses at the leading edge of pinyon–juniper migration in the Northern Great Basin, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Weppner, Kerrie N.; Pierce, Jennifer L.; Betancourt, Julio L.

2013-01-01

Fire and vegetation records at the City of Rocks National Reserve (CIRO), south-central Idaho, display the interaction of changing climate, fire and vegetation along the migrating front of single-leaf pinyon (Pinus monophylla) and Utah juniper (Juniperus osteosperma). Radiocarbon dating of alluvial charcoal reconstructed local fire occurrence and geomorphic response, and fossil woodrat (Neotoma) middens revealed pinyon and juniper arrivals. Fire peaks occurred ~ 10,700–9500, 7200–6700, 2400–2000, 850–700, and 550–400 cal yr BP, whereas ~ 9500–7200, 6700–4700 and ~ 1500–1000 cal yr BP are fire-free. Wetter climates and denser vegetation fueled episodic fires and debris flows during the early and late Holocene, whereas drier climates and reduced vegetation caused frequent sheetflooding during the mid-Holocene. Increased fires during the wetter and more variable late Holocene suggest variable climate and adequate fuels augment fires at CIRO. Utah juniper and single-leaf pinyon colonized CIRO by 3800 and 2800 cal yr BP, respectively, though pinyon did not expand broadly until ~ 700 cal yr BP. Increased fire-related deposition coincided with regional droughts and pinyon infilling ~ 850–700 and 550–400 cal yr BP. Early and late Holocene vegetation change probably played a major role in accelerated fire activity, which may be sustained into the future due to pinyon–juniper densification and cheatgrass invasion.

Flame filtering and perimeter localization of wildfires using aerial thermal imagery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valero, Mario M.; Verstockt, Steven; Rios, Oriol; Pastor, Elsa; Vandecasteele, Florian; Planas, Eulàlia

2017-05-01

Airborne thermal infrared (TIR) imaging systems are being increasingly used for wild fire tactical monitoring since they show important advantages over spaceborne platforms and visible sensors while becoming much more affordable and much lighter than multispectral cameras. However, the analysis of aerial TIR images entails a number of difficulties which have thus far prevented monitoring tasks from being totally automated. One of these issues that needs to be addressed is the appearance of flame projections during the geo-correction of off-nadir images. Filtering these flames is essential in order to accurately estimate the geographical location of the fuel burning interface. Therefore, we present a methodology which allows the automatic localisation of the active fire contour free of flame projections. The actively burning area is detected in TIR georeferenced images through a combination of intensity thresholding techniques, morphological processing and active contours. Subsequently, flame projections are filtered out by the temporal frequency analysis of the appropriate contour descriptors. The proposed algorithm was tested on footages acquired during three large-scale field experimental burns. Results suggest this methodology may be suitable to automatise the acquisition of quantitative data about the fire evolution. As future work, a revision of the low-pass filter implemented for the temporal analysis (currently a median filter) was recommended. The availability of up-to-date information about the fire state would improve situational awareness during an emergency response and may be used to calibrate data-driven simulators capable of emitting short-term accurate forecasts of the subsequent fire evolution.

Climate-Driven Risk of Large Fire Occurrence in the Western United States, 1500 to 2003

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crockett, J.; Westerling, A. L.

2017-12-01

Spatially comprehensive fire climatology has provided managers with tools to understand thecauses and consequences of large forest wildfires, but a paleoclimate context is necessary foranticipating the trajectory of future climate-fire relationships. Although accumulated charcoalrecords and tree scars have been utilized in high resolution, regional fire reconstructions, there isuncertainty as to how current climate-fire relationships of the western United States (WUS) fitwithin the natural long-term variability. While contemporary PDSI falls within the naturalvariability of the past, contemporary temperatures skew higher. Here, we develop a WUSfire reconstruction by applying climate-fire-topography model built on the 1972 to 2003 periodto the past 500 years, validated by recently updated fire-scar histories from WUS forests. Theresultant narrative provides insight into changing climate-fire relationships during extendedperiods of high aridity and temperature, providing land managers with historical precedent toeffectively anticipate disturbances during future climate change.

Direct estimation of diffuse gaseous emissions from coal fires: current methods and future directions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Engle, Mark A.; Olea, Ricardo A.; O'Keefe, Jennifer M. K.; Hower, James C.; Geboy, Nicholas J.

2013-01-01

Coal fires occur in nature spontaneously, contribute to increases in greenhouse gases, and emit atmospheric toxicants. Increasing interest in quantifying coal fire emissions has resulted in the adaptation and development of specialized approaches and adoption of numerical modeling techniques. Overview of these methods for direct estimation of diffuse gas emissions from coal fires is presented in this paper. Here we take advantage of stochastic Gaussian simulation to interpolate CO2 fluxes measured using a dynamic closed chamber at the Ruth Mullins coal fire in Perry County, Kentucky. This approach allows for preparing a map of diffuse gas emissions, one of the two primary ways that gases emanate from coal fires, and establishing the reliability of the study both locally and for the entire fire. Future research directions include continuous and automated sampling to improve quantification of gaseous coal fire emissions.

Enhancing fire science exchange: The Joint Fire Science Program's National Network of Knowledge Exchange Consortia

Treesearch

Vita Wright; Crystal Kolden; Todd Kipfer; Kristine Lee; Adrian Leighton; Jim Riddering; Leana Schelvan

2011-01-01

The Northern Rocky Mountain region is one of the most fire-prone regions in the United States. With a history of large fires that have shaped national policy, including the fires of 1910 and 2000 in Idaho and Montana and the Yellowstone fires of 1988, this region is projected to have many large severe fires in the future. Communication about fire science needs and...

Agricultural Waste as Sources for Mercury Adsorbents in Gas Applications

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Increased emphasis on reduction of mercury emissions from coal fired electric power plants have resulted in environmental regulations that may in the future require application of activated carbons as mercury sorbents. The sorbents could be injected into the flue gas stream where it adsorbs the mer...

KSC-2014-2302

NASA Image and Video Library

2014-04-25

CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. – Construction workers have installed the framing and some of the inner walls inside Firing Room 4 in the Launch Control Center at NASA's Kennedy Space Center in Florida. Three rows of upper level management consoles remain. The Ground Systems Development and Operations Program is overseeing efforts to create a new firing room based on a multi-user concept. The design of Firing Room 4 will incorporate five control room areas that are flexible to meet current and future NASA and commercial user requirements. The equipment and most of the consoles from Firing Room 4 were moved to Firing Room 2 for possible future reuse. Photo credit: NASA/Dimitri Gerondidakis

KSC-2014-2304

NASA Image and Video Library

2014-04-25

CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. – Construction workers have installed the framing and some of the inner walls inside Firing Room 4 in the Launch Control Center at NASA's Kennedy Space Center in Florida. Three rows of upper level management consoles remain. The Ground Systems Development and Operations Program is overseeing efforts to create a new firing room based on a multi-user concept. The design of Firing Room 4 will incorporate five control room areas that are flexible to meet current and future NASA and commercial user requirements. The equipment and most of the consoles from Firing Room 4 were moved to Firing Room 2 for possible future reuse. Photo credit: NASA/Dimitri Gerondidakis

KSC-2014-2303

NASA Image and Video Library

2014-04-25

CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. – Construction workers have installed the framing and some of the inner walls inside Firing Room 4 in the Launch Control Center at NASA's Kennedy Space Center in Florida. Three rows of upper level management consoles remain. The Ground Systems Development and Operations Program is overseeing efforts to create a new firing room based on a multi-user concept. The design of Firing Room 4 will incorporate five control room areas that are flexible to meet current and future NASA and commercial user requirements. The equipment and most of the consoles from Firing Room 4 were moved to Firing Room 2 for possible future reuse. Photo credit: NASA/Dimitri Gerondidakis

Modeling Future Fire danger over North America in a Changing Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jain, P.; Paimazumder, D.; Done, J.; Flannigan, M.

2016-12-01

Fire danger ratings are used to determine wildfire potential due to weather and climate factors. The Fire Weather Index (FWI), part of the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System (CFFDRS), incorporates temperature, relative humidity, windspeed and precipitation to give a daily fire danger rating that is used by wildfire management agencies in an operational context. Studies using GCM output have shown that future wildfire danger will increase in a warming climate. However, these studies are somewhat limited by the coarse spatial resolution (typically 100-400km) and temporal resolution (typically 6-hourly to monthly) of the model output. Future wildfire potential over North America based on FWI is calculated using output from the Weather, Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, which is used to downscale future climate scenarios from the bias-corrected Community Climate System Model (CCSM) under RCP8.5 scenarios at a spatial resolution of 36km. We consider five eleven year time slices: 1990-2000, 2020-2030, 2030-2040, 2050-2060 and 2080-2090. The dynamically downscaled simulation improves determination of future extreme weather by improving both spatial and temporal resolution over most GCM models. To characterize extreme fire weather we calculate annual numbers of spread days (days for which FWI > 19) and annual 99th percentile of FWI. Additionally, an extreme value analysis based on the peaks-over-threshold method allows us to calculate the return values for extreme FWI values.

Differences in human versus lightning fires between urban and rural areas of the boreal forest in interior Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Calef, Monika; Varvak, Anna; McGuire, A. David

2017-01-01

In western North America, the carbon-rich boreal forest is experiencing warmer temperatures, drier conditions and larger and more frequent wildfires. However, the fire regime is also affected by direct human activities through suppression, ignition, and land use changes. Models are important predictive tools for understanding future conditions but they are based on regional generalizations of wildfire behavior and weather that do not adequately account for the complexity of human–fire interactions. To achieve a better understanding of the intensity of human influence on fires in this sparsely populated area and to quantify differences between human and lightning fires, we analyzed fires by both ignition types in regard to human proximity in urban (the Fairbanks subregion) and rural areas of interior Alaska using spatial (Geographic Information Systems) and quantitative analysis methods. We found substantial differences in drivers of wildfire: while increases in fire ignitions and area burned were caused by lightning in rural interior Alaska, in the Fairbanks subregion these increases were due to human fires, especially in the wildland urban interface. Lightning fires are starting earlier and fires are burning longer, which is much more pronounced in the Fairbanks subregion than in rural areas. Human fires differed from lightning fires in several ways: they started closer to settlements and highways, burned for a shorter duration, were concentrated in the Fairbanks subregion, and often occurred outside the brief seasonal window for lightning fires. This study provides important insights that improve our understanding of the direct human influence on recently observed changes in wildfire regime with implications for both fire modeling and fire management.

[Prediction model of human-caused fire occurrence in the boreal forest of northern China].

PubMed

Guo, Fu-tao; Su, Zhang-wen; Wang, Guang-yu; Wang, Qiang; Sun, Long; Yang, Ting-ting

2015-07-01

The Chinese boreal forest is an important forest resource in China. However, it has been suffering serious disturbances of forest fires, which were caused equally by natural disasters (e.g., lightning) and human activities. The literature on human-caused fires indicates that climate, topography, vegetation, and human infrastructure are significant factors that impact the occurrence and spread of human-caused fires. But the studies on human-caused fires in the boreal forest of northern China are limited and less comprehensive. This paper applied the spatial analysis tools in ArcGIS 10.0 and Logistic regression model to investigate the driving factors of human-caused fires. Our data included the geographic coordinates of human-caused fires, climate factors during year 1974-2009, topographic information, and forest map. The results indicated that distance to railway (x1) and average relative humidity (x2) significantly impacted the occurrence of human-caused fire in the study area. The logistic model for predicting the fire occurrence probability was formulated as P= 1/[11+e-(3.026-0.00011x1-0.047x2)] with an accuracy rate of 80%. The above model was used to predict the monthly fire occurrence during the fire season of 2015 based on the HADCM2 future weather data. The prediction results showed that the high risk of human-caused fire occurrence concentrated in the months of April, May, June and August, while April and May had higher risk of fire occurrence than other months. According to the spatial distribution of possibility of fire occurrence, the high fire risk zones were mainly in the west and southwest of Tahe, where the major railways were located.

Ecological forestry in the Southeast: Understanding the ecology of fuels

Treesearch

R.J. Mitchell; J.K. Hiers; J. O’Brien; G. Starr

2009-01-01

Fire is a dominant disturbance within many forested ecosystems worldwide. Understanding the complex feedbacks among vegetation as a fuel for fire, the effects of fuels on fire behavior, and the impact of fire behavior on future vegetation are critical for sustaining biodiversity in fire-dependent forests. Nonetheless, understanding in fire ecology has been limited in...

Defining the role of fire in alleviating seed dormancy in a rare Mediterranean endemic subshrub

PubMed Central

Paniw, Maria; Ojeda, Fernando; Turner, Shane R; Dixon, Kingsley W; Merritt, David J

2017-01-01

Abstract Fire is a topical issue in the management of many ecosystems globally that face a drying climate. Understanding the role of fire in such ecosystems is critical to inform appropriate management practices, particularly in the case of rare and ecologically specialized species. The Mediterranean heathlands are highly fire-prone and occur in a biodiversity hotspot increasingly threatened by human activities, and determining the reproductive thresholds of at-risk heathland species is critical to ensuring the success of future conservation initiatives. This study examined the germination biology of the threatened carnivorous subshrub Drosophyllum lusitanicum, with specific focus on the role of fire-related cues (heat and smoke) in combination with seasonal temperatures and moisture conditions to determine how these factors regulate seed dormancy and germination. We found that D. lusitanicum produces water-permeable, physiologically dormant seeds with a fully developed, capitate embryo that when fresh (~1 month old) and without treatment germinate to 20–40 % within 4–8 weeks. Seeds possess a restricted thermal window (15–20 °C) for germination and a neutral photoblastic response. Seed dormancy was overcome through precision nicking of the seed coat (>90 % germination) or by short exposure to dry heat (80 or 100 °C) for 5–30 min (60–100 % germination). We propose seedling emergence from the soil seed bank may be cued by the passage of fire, or by soil disturbance from the movement and browsing of animals. Long-term population viability is likely to be contingent upon appropriate management of the persistent soil seed bank, as well as the adequate management of key ecological disturbances such as fire. Drosophyllum lusitanicum faces an increasingly bleak future in the absence of conservation and management initiatives aimed at reducing habitat fragmentation in heathlands and aligning fire management and livestock practices with biodiversity outcomes. PMID:28948008

Defining the role of fire in alleviating seed dormancy in a rare Mediterranean endemic subshrub.

PubMed

Cross, Adam T; Paniw, Maria; Ojeda, Fernando; Turner, Shane R; Dixon, Kingsley W; Merritt, David J

2017-09-01

Fire is a topical issue in the management of many ecosystems globally that face a drying climate. Understanding the role of fire in such ecosystems is critical to inform appropriate management practices, particularly in the case of rare and ecologically specialized species. The Mediterranean heathlands are highly fire-prone and occur in a biodiversity hotspot increasingly threatened by human activities, and determining the reproductive thresholds of at-risk heathland species is critical to ensuring the success of future conservation initiatives. This study examined the germination biology of the threatened carnivorous subshrub Drosophyllum lusitanicum , with specific focus on the role of fire-related cues (heat and smoke) in combination with seasonal temperatures and moisture conditions to determine how these factors regulate seed dormancy and germination. We found that D. lusitanicum produces water-permeable, physiologically dormant seeds with a fully developed, capitate embryo that when fresh (~1 month old) and without treatment germinate to 20-40 % within 4-8 weeks. Seeds possess a restricted thermal window (15-20 °C) for germination and a neutral photoblastic response. Seed dormancy was overcome through precision nicking of the seed coat (>90 % germination) or by short exposure to dry heat (80 or 100 °C) for 5-30 min (60-100 % germination). We propose seedling emergence from the soil seed bank may be cued by the passage of fire, or by soil disturbance from the movement and browsing of animals. Long-term population viability is likely to be contingent upon appropriate management of the persistent soil seed bank, as well as the adequate management of key ecological disturbances such as fire. Drosophyllum lusitanicum faces an increasingly bleak future in the absence of conservation and management initiatives aimed at reducing habitat fragmentation in heathlands and aligning fire management and livestock practices with biodiversity outcomes.

An algorithm to detect fire activity using Meteosat: fine tuning and quality assesment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amraoui, M.; DaCamara, C. C.; Ermida, S. L.

2012-04-01

Hot spot detection by means of sensors on-board geostationary satellites allows studying wildfire activity at hourly and even sub-hourly intervals, an advantage that cannot be met by polar orbiters. Since 1997, the Satellite Application Facility for Land Surface Analysis has been running an operational procedure that allows detecting active fires based on information from Meteosat-8/SEVIRI. This is the so-called Fire Detection and Monitoring (FD&M) product and the procedure takes advantage of the temporal resolution of SEVIRI (one image every 15 min), and relies on information from SEVIRI channels (namely 0.6, 0.8, 3.9, 10.8 and 12.0 μm) together with information on illumination angles. The method is based on heritage from contextual algorithms designed for polar, sun-synchronous instruments, namely NOAA/AVHRR and MODIS/TERRAAQUA. A potential fire pixel is compared with the neighboring ones and the decision is made based on relative thresholds as derived from the pixels in the neighborhood. Generally speaking, the observed fire incidence compares well against hot spots extracted from the global daily active fire product developed by the MODIS Fire Team. However, values of probability of detection (POD) tend to be quite low, a result that may be partially expected by the finer resolution of MODIS. The aim of the present study is to make a systematic assessment of the impacts on POD and False Alarm Ratio (FAR) of the several parameters that are set in the algorithms. Such parameters range from the threshold values of brightness temperature in the IR3.9 and 10.8 channels that are used to select potential fire pixels up to the extent of the background grid and thresholds used to statistically characterize the radiometric departures of a potential pixel from the respective background. The impact of different criteria to identify pixels contaminated by clouds, smoke and sun glint is also evaluated. Finally, the advantages that may be brought to the algorithm by adding contextual tests in the time domain are discussed. The study lays the grounds to the development of improved quality flags that will be integrated in the FD&M product in the nearby future.

Wildland fire as a self-regulating mechanism: the role of previous burns and weather in limiting fire progression

Treesearch

Sean A. Parks; Lisa M. Holsinger; Carol Miller; Cara R. Nelson

2015-01-01

Theory suggests that natural fire regimes can result in landscapes that are both self-regulating and resilient to fire. For example, because fires consume fuel, they may create barriers to the spread of future fires, thereby regulating fire size. Top-down controls such as weather, however, can weaken this effect. While empirical examples demonstrating this pattern-...

Geomorphology of coal seam fires

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuenzer, Claudia; Stracher, Glenn B.

2012-02-01

Coal fires occur in underground natural coal seams, in exposed surface seams, and in coal storage or waste piles. The fires ignite through spontaneous combustion or natural or anthropogenic causes. They are reported from China, India, USA, South Africa, Australia, and Russia, as well as many other countries. Coal fires lead to loss of a valuable resource (coal), the emission of greenhouse-relevant and toxic gases, and vegetation deterioration. A dangerous aspect of the fires is the threat to local mines, industries, and settlements through the volume loss underground. Surface collapse in coal fire areas is common. Thus, coal fires are significantly affecting the evolution of the landscape. Based on more than a decade of experience with in situ mapping of coal fire areas worldwide, a general classification system for coal fires is presented. Furthermore, coal seam fire geomorphology is explained in detail. The major landforms associated with, and induced by, these fires are presented. The landforms include manifestations resulting from bedrock surface fracturing, such as fissures, cracks, funnels, vents, and sponges. Further manifestations resulting from surface bedrock subsidence include sinkholes, trenches, depressions, partial surface subsidence, large surface subsidence, and slides. Additional geomorphologic coal fire manifestations include exposed ash layers, pyrometamorphic rocks, and fumarolic minerals. The origin, evolution, and possible future development of these features are explained, and examples from in situ surveys, as well as from high-resolution satellite data analyses, are presented. The geomorphology of coal fires has not been presented in a systematic manner. Knowledge of coal fire geomorphology enables the detection of underground coal fires based on distinct surface manifestations. Furthermore, it allows judgments about the safety of coal fire-affected terrain. Additionally, geomorphologic features are indicators of the burning stage of fires. Finally, coal fire geomorphology helps to explain landscape features whose occurrence would otherwise not be understood. Although coal fire-induced thermal anomalies and gas release are also indications of coal fire activity, as addressed by many investigators, no assessment is complete without sound geomorphologic mapping of the fire-induced geomorphologic features.

KSC-2009-2975

NASA Image and Video Library

2009-05-06

CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. – New windows are installed in the Launch Control Center's Firing Room 1 at NASA's Kennedy Space Center in Florida. The firing room will support the future Ares rocket launches as part of NASA's Constellation Program. Future astronauts will ride to orbit on Ares I, launched from Kennedy's Launch Pad 39B. The Launch Control Center firing rooms face the launch pads. Photo credit: NASA/Jack Pfaller

KSC-2009-2976

NASA Image and Video Library

2009-05-06

CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. – New windows are installed in the Launch Control Center's Firing Room 1 at NASA's Kennedy Space Center in Florida. The firing room will support the future Ares rocket launches as part of NASA's Constellation Program. Future astronauts will ride to orbit on Ares I, launched from Kennedy's Launch Pad 39B. The Launch Control Center firing rooms face the launch pads. Photo credit: NASA/Jack Pfaller

Big data integration shows Australian bush-fire frequency is increasing significantly.

PubMed

Dutta, Ritaban; Das, Aruneema; Aryal, Jagannath

2016-02-01

Increasing Australian bush-fire frequencies over the last decade has indicated a major climatic change in coming future. Understanding such climatic change for Australian bush-fire is limited and there is an urgent need of scientific research, which is capable enough to contribute to Australian society. Frequency of bush-fire carries information on spatial, temporal and climatic aspects of bush-fire events and provides contextual information to model various climate data for accurately predicting future bush-fire hot spots. In this study, we develop an ensemble method based on a two-layered machine learning model to establish relationship between fire incidence and climatic data. In a 336 week data trial, we demonstrate that the model provides highly accurate bush-fire incidence hot-spot estimation (91% global accuracy) from the weekly climatic surfaces. Our analysis also indicates that Australian weekly bush-fire frequencies increased by 40% over the last 5 years, particularly during summer months, implicating a serious climatic shift.

Convergence of bark investment according to fire and climate structures ecosystem vulnerability to future change.

PubMed

Pellegrini, Adam F A; Anderegg, William R L; Paine, C E Timothy; Hoffmann, William A; Kartzinel, Tyler; Rabin, Sam S; Sheil, Douglas; Franco, Augusto C; Pacala, Stephen W

2017-03-01

Fire regimes in savannas and forests are changing over much of the world. Anticipating the impact of these changes requires understanding how plants are adapted to fire. In this study, we test whether fire imposes a broad selective force on a key fire-tolerance trait, bark thickness, across 572 tree species distributed worldwide. We show that investment in thick bark is a pervasive adaptation in frequently burned areas across savannas and forests in both temperate and tropical regions where surface fires occur. Geographic variability in bark thickness is largely explained by annual burned area and precipitation seasonality. Combining environmental and species distribution data allowed us to assess vulnerability to future climate and fire conditions: tropical rainforests are especially vulnerable, whereas seasonal forests and savannas are more robust. The strong link between fire and bark thickness provides an avenue for assessing the vulnerability of tree communities to fire and demands inclusion in global models. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Big data integration shows Australian bush-fire frequency is increasing significantly

PubMed Central

Dutta, Ritaban; Das, Aruneema; Aryal, Jagannath

2016-01-01

Increasing Australian bush-fire frequencies over the last decade has indicated a major climatic change in coming future. Understanding such climatic change for Australian bush-fire is limited and there is an urgent need of scientific research, which is capable enough to contribute to Australian society. Frequency of bush-fire carries information on spatial, temporal and climatic aspects of bush-fire events and provides contextual information to model various climate data for accurately predicting future bush-fire hot spots. In this study, we develop an ensemble method based on a two-layered machine learning model to establish relationship between fire incidence and climatic data. In a 336 week data trial, we demonstrate that the model provides highly accurate bush-fire incidence hot-spot estimation (91% global accuracy) from the weekly climatic surfaces. Our analysis also indicates that Australian weekly bush-fire frequencies increased by 40% over the last 5 years, particularly during summer months, implicating a serious climatic shift. PMID:26998312

Burning Questions in Gravity-Dependent Combustion Science

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Urban, David; Chiaramonte, Francis P.

2012-01-01

Building upon a long history of spaceflight and ground based research, NASA's Combustion Science program has accumulated a significant body of accomplishments on the ISS. Historically, NASAs low-gravity combustion research program has sought: to provide a more complete understanding of the fundamental controlling processes in combustion by identifying simpler one-dimensional systems to eliminate the complex interactions between the buoyant flow and the energy feedback to the reaction zone to provide realistic simulation of the fire risk in manned spacecraft and to enable practical simulation of the gravitational environment experienced by reacting systems in future spacecraft. Over the past two decades, low-gravity combustion research has focused primarily on increasing our understanding of fundamental combustion processes (e.g. droplet combustion, soot, flame spread, smoldering, and gas-jet flames). This research program was highly successful and was aided by synergistic programs in Europe and in Japan. Overall improvements were made in our ability to model droplet combustion in spray combustors (e.g. jet engines), predict flame spread, predict soot production, and detect and prevent spacecraft fires. These results provided a unique dataset that supports both an active research discipline and also spacecraft fire safety for current and future spacecraft. These experiments have been conducted using the Combustion Integrated Rack (CIR), the Microgravity Science Glovebox and the Express Rack. In this paper, we provide an overview of the earlier space shuttle experiments, the recent ISS combustion experiments in addition to the studies planned for the future. Experiments in combustion include topics such as droplet combustion, gaseous diffusion flames, solid fuels, premixed flame studies, fire safety, and super critical oxidation processes.

Indonesian fire activity and smoke pollution in 2015 show persistent nonlinear sensitivity to El Niño-induced drought.

PubMed

Field, Robert D; van der Werf, Guido R; Fanin, Thierry; Fetzer, Eric J; Fuller, Ryan; Jethva, Hiren; Levy, Robert; Livesey, Nathaniel J; Luo, Ming; Torres, Omar; Worden, Helen M

2016-08-16

The 2015 fire season and related smoke pollution in Indonesia was more severe than the major 2006 episode, making it the most severe season observed by the NASA Earth Observing System satellites that go back to the early 2000s, namely active fire detections from the Terra and Aqua Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometers (MODIS), MODIS aerosol optical depth, Terra Measurement of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT) carbon monoxide (CO), Aqua Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) CO, Aura Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) aerosol index, and Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) CO. The MLS CO in the upper troposphere showed a plume of pollution stretching from East Africa to the western Pacific Ocean that persisted for 2 mo. Longer-term records of airport visibility in Sumatra and Kalimantan show that 2015 ranked after 1997 and alongside 1991 and 1994 as among the worst episodes on record. Analysis of yearly dry season rainfall from the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) and rain gauges shows that, due to the continued use of fire to clear and prepare land on degraded peat, the Indonesian fire environment continues to have nonlinear sensitivity to dry conditions during prolonged periods with less than 4 mm/d of precipitation, and this sensitivity appears to have increased over Kalimantan. Without significant reforms in land use and the adoption of early warning triggers tied to precipitation forecasts, these intense fire episodes will reoccur during future droughts, usually associated with El Niño events.

Indonesian fire activity and smoke pollution in 2015 show persistent nonlinear sensitivity to El Niño-induced drought

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Field, Robert D.; van der Werf, Guido R.; Fanin, Thierry; Fetzer, Eric J.; Fuller, Ryan; Jethva, Hiren; Levy, Robert; Livesey, Nathaniel J.; Luo, Ming; Torres, Omar; Worden, Helen M.

2016-08-01

The 2015 fire season and related smoke pollution in Indonesia was more severe than the major 2006 episode, making it the most severe season observed by the NASA Earth Observing System satellites that go back to the early 2000s, namely active fire detections from the Terra and Aqua Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometers (MODIS), MODIS aerosol optical depth, Terra Measurement of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT) carbon monoxide (CO), Aqua Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) CO, Aura Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) aerosol index, and Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) CO. The MLS CO in the upper troposphere showed a plume of pollution stretching from East Africa to the western Pacific Ocean that persisted for 2 mo. Longer-term records of airport visibility in Sumatra and Kalimantan show that 2015 ranked after 1997 and alongside 1991 and 1994 as among the worst episodes on record. Analysis of yearly dry season rainfall from the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) and rain gauges shows that, due to the continued use of fire to clear and prepare land on degraded peat, the Indonesian fire environment continues to have nonlinear sensitivity to dry conditions during prolonged periods with less than 4 mm/d of precipitation, and this sensitivity appears to have increased over Kalimantan. Without significant reforms in land use and the adoption of early warning triggers tied to precipitation forecasts, these intense fire episodes will reoccur during future droughts, usually associated with El Niño events.

Indonesian Fire Activity and Smoke Pollution in 2015 Show Persistent Nonlinear Sensitivity to El Niño-induced Drought

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Field, Robert D.; van der Werf, Guido R.; Fanin, Thierry; Fetzer, Eric; Fuller, Ryan; Jethva, Hiren; Levy, Robert; Livesey, Nathaniel; Luo, Ming; Torres, Omar;

Indonesian fire activity and smoke pollution in 2015 show persistent nonlinear sensitivity to El Niño-induced drought

PubMed Central

Field, Robert D.; van der Werf, Guido R.; Fanin, Thierry; Fetzer, Eric J.; Fuller, Ryan; Jethva, Hiren; Levy, Robert; Livesey, Nathaniel J.; Luo, Ming; Torres, Omar; Worden, Helen M.

2016-01-01

The 2015 fire season and related smoke pollution in Indonesia was more severe than the major 2006 episode, making it the most severe season observed by the NASA Earth Observing System satellites that go back to the early 2000s, namely active fire detections from the Terra and Aqua Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometers (MODIS), MODIS aerosol optical depth, Terra Measurement of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT) carbon monoxide (CO), Aqua Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) CO, Aura Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) aerosol index, and Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) CO. The MLS CO in the upper troposphere showed a plume of pollution stretching from East Africa to the western Pacific Ocean that persisted for 2 mo. Longer-term records of airport visibility in Sumatra and Kalimantan show that 2015 ranked after 1997 and alongside 1991 and 1994 as among the worst episodes on record. Analysis of yearly dry season rainfall from the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) and rain gauges shows that, due to the continued use of fire to clear and prepare land on degraded peat, the Indonesian fire environment continues to have nonlinear sensitivity to dry conditions during prolonged periods with less than 4 mm/d of precipitation, and this sensitivity appears to have increased over Kalimantan. Without significant reforms in land use and the adoption of early warning triggers tied to precipitation forecasts, these intense fire episodes will reoccur during future droughts, usually associated with El Niño events. PMID:27482096

Using ecological forecasting of future vegetation transition and fire frequency change in the Sierra Nevada to assess fire management strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thorne, J. H.; Schwartz, M. W.; Holguin, A. J.; Moritz, M.; Batllori, E.; Folger, K.; Nydick, K.

2013-12-01

Ecological systems may respond in complex manners as climate change progresses. Among the responses, site-level climate conditions may cause a shift in vegetation due to the physiological tolerances of plant species, and the fire return interval may change. Natural resource managers challenged with maintaining ecosystem health need a way to forecast how these processes may affect every location, in order to determine appropriate management actions and prioritize locations for interventions. We integrated climate change-driven vegetation type transitions with projected change in fire frequency for 45,203 km2 of the southern Sierra Nevada, California, containing over 10 land management agencies as well as private lands. This Magnitude of Change (MOC) approach involves classing vegetation types in current time according to their climate envelopes, and identifying which sites will in the future have climates beyond what that vegetation currently occurs in. Independently, fire models are used to determine the change in fire frequency for each site. We examined 82 vegetation types with >50 grid cell occurrences. We found iconic resources such as the giant sequoia, lower slope oak woodlands, and high elevation conifer forests are projected as highly vulnerable by models that project a warmer drier future, but not as much by models that project a warmer future that is not drier than current conditions. Further, there were strongly divergent vulnerabilities of these forest types across land ownership (National Parks versus US Forest Service lands), and by GCM. For example, of 50 giant sequoia (Sequoiadendron giganteum) groves and complexes, all but 3 (on Sierra National Forest) were in the 2 highest levels of risk of climate and fire under the GFDL A2 projection, while 15 groves with low-to-moderate risk were found on both the National Parks and National Forests 18 in the 2 under PCM A2. Landscape projections of potential MOC suggest that the region is likely to experience strong upslope shifting of open grassland, chaparral and hardwood types, which may be initiated by increased fire frequencies, particularly where fires have not recently burned within normal fire recurrence interval departures (FRID). An evaluation of four fire management strategies (business as usual; resist change; foster orderly change; protect vital resources) across four combinations of future climate and fire frequency found that no single management strategy was uniformly successful in protecting critical resources across the range of future conditions examined. This limitation is somewhat driven by current management constraints on the amount of management available to resource managers, which suggests management will need to use a triage approach to application of proactive fire management strategies, wherein MOC landscape projections can be used in decision support.

Descriptive epidemiology of unintentional residential fire injuries in King County, WA, 1984 and 1985.

PubMed Central

Ballard, J E; Koepsell, T D; Rivara, F P; Van Belle, G

1992-01-01

Although most studies have concentrated on fatal residential fire injuries, which are a leading cause of fatal injuries in the United States, few investigators have examined in detail nonfatal injuries as a consequence of residential fires. This population-based study used the Washington State Fire Incident Reporting System to assess the incidence and descriptive epidemiology of fatal and nonfatal burns or respiratory tract damage resulting from unintentional residential fires. For the 2-year period 1984-85 in King County, WA, the mortality rate due to injury in a residential fire was 0.7 per 100,000 per year, and the incidence of nonfatal injuries was 5.6 per 100,000 per year. Of 17 fatalities, 59 percent of the deaths occurred at the scene of the fire. Of 128 persons with nonfatal injuries, 19 percent were hospitalized; although the 55 percent seen as outpatients and the 26 percent treated by the fire department or paramedics at the fire scene usually had minor injuries, they would not have been captured if only traditional data sources had been employed. Those injured averaged 2.8 days of restricted activity, but the range was from less than 1 day to 1 year. Injuries were more common in the households with a low socioeconomic status and among nonwhites, especially American Indians. Variation in incidence by age, sex, and source of ignition for deaths and nonfatal injuries suggests appropriate targets for future fire injury prevention programs. PMID:1641436

High-resolution records detect human-caused changes to the boreal forest wildfire regime in interior Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gaglioti, Benjamin V.; Mann, Daniel H.; Jones, Benjamin M.; Wooller, Matthew J.; Finney, Bruce P.

2016-01-01

Stand-replacing wildfires are a keystone disturbance in the boreal forest, and they are becoming more common as the climate warms. Paleo-fire archives from the wildland–urban interface can quantify the prehistoric fire regime and assess how both human land-use and climate change impact ecosystem dynamics. Here, we use a combination of a sedimentary charcoal record preserved in varved lake sediments (annually layered) and fire scars in living trees to document changes in local fire return intervals (FRIs) and regional fire activity over the last 500 years. Ace Lake is within the boreal forest, located near the town of Fairbanks in interior Alaska, which was settled by gold miners in AD 1902. In the 400 years before settlement, fires occurred near the lake on average every 58 years. After settlement, fires became much more frequent (average every 18  years), and background charcoal flux rates rose to four times their preindustrial levels, indicating a region-wide increase in burning. Despite this surge in burning, the preindustrial boreal forest ecosystem and permafrost in the watershed have remained intact. Although fire suppression has reduced charcoal influx since the 1950s, an aging fuel load experiencing increasingly warm summers may pose management problems for this and other boreal sites that have similar land-use and fire histories. The large human-caused fire events that we identify can be used to test how increasingly common megafires may alter ecosystem dynamics in the future.

Mixed-severity fire regimes in the northern Rocky Mountains: consequences of fire exclusion and options for the future

Treesearch

Stephen F. Arno; David J. Parsons; Robert E. Keane

2000-01-01

Findings from fire history studies have increasingly indicated that many forest ecosystems in the northern Rocky Mountains were shaped by mixed-severity fire regimes, characterized by fires of variable severities at intervals averaging between about 30 and 100 years. Perhaps because mixed-severity fire regimes and their resulting vegetational patterns are difficult to...

Humans, Fires, and Forests - Social science applied to fire management

Treesearch

Hanna J. Cortner; Donald R. Field; Pam Jakes; James D. Buthman

2003-01-01

The 2000 and 2002 fire seasons resulted in increased political scrutiny of the nation's wildland fire threats, and given the fact that millions of acres of lands are still at high risk for future catastrophic fire events, the issues highlighted by the recent fire seasons are not likely to go away any time soon. Recognizing the magnitude of the problem, the...

The status and challenge of global fire modelling

DOE PAGES

Hantson, Stijn; Arneth, Almut; Harrison, Sandy P.; ...

2016-06-09

Biomass burning impacts vegetation dynamics, biogeochemical cycling, atmospheric chemistry, and climate, with sometimes deleterious socio-economic impacts. Under future climate projections it is often expected that the risk of wildfires will increase. Our ability to predict the magnitude and geographic pattern of future fire impacts rests on our ability to model fire regimes, using either well-founded empirical relationships or process-based models with good predictive skill. While a large variety of models exist today, it is still unclear which type of model or degree of complexity is required to model fire adequately at regional to global scales. This is the central questionmore » underpinning the creation of the Fire Model Intercomparison Project (FireMIP), an international initiative to compare and evaluate existing global fire models against benchmark data sets for present-day and historical conditions. In this paper we review how fires have been represented in fire-enabled dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) and give an overview of the current state of the art in fire-regime modelling. In conclusion, we indicate which challenges still remain in global fire modelling and stress the need for a comprehensive model evaluation and outline what lessons may be learned from FireMIP.« less

The status and challenge of global fire modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hantson, Stijn; Arneth, Almut; Harrison, Sandy P.; Kelley, Douglas I.; Prentice, I. Colin; Rabin, Sam S.; Archibald, Sally; Mouillot, Florent; Arnold, Steve R.; Artaxo, Paulo; Bachelet, Dominique; Ciais, Philippe; Forrest, Matthew; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Hickler, Thomas; Kaplan, Jed O.; Kloster, Silvia; Knorr, Wolfgang; Lasslop, Gitta; Li, Fang; Mangeon, Stephane; Melton, Joe R.; Meyn, Andrea; Sitch, Stephen; Spessa, Allan; van der Werf, Guido R.; Voulgarakis, Apostolos; Yue, Chao

2016-06-01

Biomass burning impacts vegetation dynamics, biogeochemical cycling, atmospheric chemistry, and climate, with sometimes deleterious socio-economic impacts. Under future climate projections it is often expected that the risk of wildfires will increase. Our ability to predict the magnitude and geographic pattern of future fire impacts rests on our ability to model fire regimes, using either well-founded empirical relationships or process-based models with good predictive skill. While a large variety of models exist today, it is still unclear which type of model or degree of complexity is required to model fire adequately at regional to global scales. This is the central question underpinning the creation of the Fire Model Intercomparison Project (FireMIP), an international initiative to compare and evaluate existing global fire models against benchmark data sets for present-day and historical conditions. In this paper we review how fires have been represented in fire-enabled dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) and give an overview of the current state of the art in fire-regime modelling. We indicate which challenges still remain in global fire modelling and stress the need for a comprehensive model evaluation and outline what lessons may be learned from FireMIP.

The status and challenge of global fire modelling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hantson, Stijn; Arneth, Almut; Harrison, Sandy P.

Biomass burning impacts vegetation dynamics, biogeochemical cycling, atmospheric chemistry, and climate, with sometimes deleterious socio-economic impacts. Under future climate projections it is often expected that the risk of wildfires will increase. Our ability to predict the magnitude and geographic pattern of future fire impacts rests on our ability to model fire regimes, using either well-founded empirical relationships or process-based models with good predictive skill. While a large variety of models exist today, it is still unclear which type of model or degree of complexity is required to model fire adequately at regional to global scales. This is the central questionmore » underpinning the creation of the Fire Model Intercomparison Project (FireMIP), an international initiative to compare and evaluate existing global fire models against benchmark data sets for present-day and historical conditions. In this paper we review how fires have been represented in fire-enabled dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) and give an overview of the current state of the art in fire-regime modelling. In conclusion, we indicate which challenges still remain in global fire modelling and stress the need for a comprehensive model evaluation and outline what lessons may be learned from FireMIP.« less

Multi-scale controls of historical forest-fire regimes: new insights from fire-scar networks

Treesearch

Donald A. Falk; Emily K. Heyerdahl; Peter M. Brown; Calvin Farris; Peter Z. Fule; Donald McKenzie; Thomas W. Swetnam; Alan H. Taylor; Megan L. Van Horne

2011-01-01

Anticipating future forest-fire regimes under changing climate requires that scientists and natural resource managers understand the factors that control fire across space and time. Fire scars—proxy records of fires, formed in the growth rings of long-lived trees—provide an annually accurate window into past low-severity fire regimes. In western North America, networks...

Vulnerability of landscape carbon fluxes to future climate and fire in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

Treesearch

Erica A. H. Smithwick; Anthony L. Westerling; Monica G. Turner; William H. Romme; Michael G. Ryan

2011-01-01

More frequent fires under climate warming are likely to alter terrestrial carbon (C) stocks by reducing the amount of C stored in biomass and soil. However, the thresholds of fire frequency that could shift landscapes from C sinks to C sources under future climates are not known. We used the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE) as a case study to explore the conditions...

KSC-2009-2977

NASA Image and Video Library

2009-05-06

CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. – A technician works at installing a new window in the Launch Control Center's Firing Room 1 at NASA's Kennedy Space Center in Florida. The firing room will support the future Ares rocket launches as part of NASA's Constellation Program. Future astronauts will ride to orbit on Ares I, launched from Kennedy's Launch Pad 39B. The Launch Control Center firing rooms face the launch pads. Photo credit: NASA/Jack Pfaller

Projected changes in atmospheric heating due to changes in fire disturbance and the snow season in the western Arctic, 2003-2100

Treesearch

E.S. Euskirchen; A.D. McGuire; T.S. Rupp; F.S. Chapin; J.E. Walsh

2009-01-01

In high latitudes, changes in climate impact fire regimes and snow cover duration, altering the surface albedo and the heating of the regional atmosphere. In the western Arctic, under four scenarios of future climate change and future fire regimes (2003-2100), we examined changes in surface albedo and the related changes in regional atmospheric heating due to: (1)...

KSC-2014-1973

NASA Image and Video Library

2014-04-03

CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. – The Mobile Launcher is visible through a window inside Firing Room 4 in the Launch Control Center at NASA's Kennedy Space Center in Florida. The Ground Systems Development and Operations Program is overseeing efforts to create a new multi-user firing room in Firing Room 4. The main floor consoles, cabling and wires below the floor and ceiling tiles above have been removed. Sub-flooring has been installed and the room is marked off to create four separate rooms on the main floor. The design of Firing Room 4 will incorporate five control room areas that are flexible to meet current and future NASA and commercial user requirements. The equipment and most of the consoles from Firing Room 4 were moved to Firing Room 2 for possible future reuse. Photo credit: NASA/Ben Smegelsky

Modeling Fire Emissions across Central and Southern Italy: Implications for Land and Fire Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bacciu, V. M.; Salis, M.; Spano, D.

2015-12-01

Fires play a relevant role in the global and regional carbon cycle, representing a remarkable source of CO2 and other greenhouse gases (GHG) that influence atmosphere budgets and climate. In addition, the wildfire increase projected in Southern Europe due to climate change (CC) and concurrent exacerbation of extreme weather conditions could also lead to a significant rise in GHG. Recently, in the context of the Italian National Adaptation Strategy to Climate Change (SNAC), several approaches were identified as valuable tools to adapt and mitigate the impacts of CC on wildfires, in order to reduce landscape susceptibility and to contribute to the efforts of carbon emission mitigation proposed within the Kyoto protocol. Active forest and fuel management (such as prescribed burning, fuel reduction and removal, weed and flammable shrub control, creation of fuel discontinuity) is recognised to be a key element to adapt and mitigate the impacts of CC on wildfires. Despite this, overall there is a lack of studies about the effectiveness of fire emission mitigation strategies. The current work aims to analyse the potential of a combination of fuel management practices in mitigating emissions from forest fires and evaluate valuable and viable options across Central and Southern Italy. These objectives were achieved throughout a retrospective application of an integrated approach combining a fire emission model (FOFEM - First Order Fire Effect Model) with spatially explicit, comprehensive, and accurate fire, vegetation and weather data for the period 2004-2012. Furthermore, a number of silvicultural techniques were combined to develop several fuel management scenarios and then tested to evaluate their potential in mitigating fire emissions.The preliminary results showed the crucial role of appropriate fuel, fire behavior, and weather data to reduce bias in quantifying the source and the composition of fire emissions and to attain reasonable estimations. Also, the current study highlighted that balanced combination of fuel management techniques could not only be a viable mean to reduce fire emissions but at the same time prevent future wildfires and the related threat to human lives and activities.

Hydraulic redistribution affects modeled carbon cycling via soil microbial activity and suppressed fire.

PubMed

Fu, Congsheng; Wang, Guiling; Bible, Kenneth; Goulden, Michael L; Saleska, Scott R; Scott, Russell L; Cardon, Zoe G

2018-04-13

Hydraulic redistribution (HR) of water from moist to drier soils, through plant roots, occurs world-wide in seasonally dry ecosystems. Although the influence of HR on landscape hydrology and plant water use has been amply demonstrated, HR's effects on microbe-controlled processes sensitive to soil moisture, including carbon and nutrient cycling at ecosystem scales, remain difficult to observe in the field and have not been integrated into a predictive framework. We incorporated a representation of HR into the Community Land Model (CLM4.5) and found the new model improved predictions of water, energy, and system-scale carbon fluxes observed by eddy covariance at four seasonally dry yet ecologically diverse temperate and tropical AmeriFlux sites. Modeled plant productivity and microbial activities were differentially stimulated by upward HR, resulting at times in increased plant demand outstripping increased nutrient supply. Modeled plant productivity and microbial activities were diminished by downward HR. Overall, inclusion of HR tended to increase modeled annual ecosystem uptake of CO 2 (or reduce annual CO 2 release to the atmosphere). Moreover, engagement of CLM4.5's ground-truthed fire module indicated that though HR increased modeled fuel load at all four sites, upward HR also moistened surface soil and hydrated vegetation sufficiently to limit the modeled spread of dry season fire and concomitant very large CO 2 emissions to the atmosphere. Historically, fire has been a dominant ecological force in many seasonally dry ecosystems, and intensification of soil drought and altered precipitation regimes are expected for seasonally dry ecosystems in the future. HR may play an increasingly important role mitigating development of extreme soil water potential gradients and associated limitations on plant and soil microbial activities, and may inhibit the spread of fire in seasonally dry ecosystems. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

[Effects of fire recurrence on fire behaviour in cork oak woodlands (Quercus suber L.) and Mediterranean shrublands over the last fifty years].

PubMed

Schaffhauser, Alice; Pimont, François; Curt, Thomas; Cassagne, Nathalie; Dupuy, Jean-Luc; Tatoni, Thierry

2015-12-01

Past fire recurrence impacts the vegetation structure, and it is consequently hypothesized to alter its future fire behaviour. We examined the fire behaviour in shrubland-forest mosaics of southeastern France, which were organized along a range of fire frequency (0 to 3-4 fires along the past 50 years) and had different time intervals between fires. The mosaic was dominated by Quercus suber L. and Erica-Cistus shrubland communities. We described the vegetation structure through measurements of tree height, base of tree crown or shrub layer, mean diameter, cover, plant water content and bulk density. We used the physical model Firetec to simulate the fire behaviour. Fire intensity, fire spread, plant water content and biomass loss varied significantly according to fire recurrence and vegetation structure, mainly linked to the time since the last fire, then the number of fires. These results confirm that past fire recurrence affects future fire behaviour, with multi-layered vegetation (particularly high shrublands) producing more intense fires, contrary to submature Quercus woodlands that have not burnt since 1959 and that are unlikely to reburn. Further simulations, with more vegetation scenes according to shrub and canopy covers, will complete this study in order to discuss the fire propagation risk in heterogeneous vegetation, particularly in the Mediterranean area, with a view to a local management of these ecosystems. Copyright © 2015 Académie des sciences. Published by Elsevier SAS. All rights reserved.

Fuel variability following wildfire in forests with mixed severity fire regimes, Cascade Range, USA

Treesearch

Jessica L. Hudec; David L. Peterson

2012-01-01

Fire severity influences post-burn structure and composition of a forest and the potential for a future fire to burn through the area. The effects of fire on forests with mixed severity fire regimes are difficult to predict and interpret because the quantity, structure, and composition of forest fuels vary considerably. This study examines the relationship between fire...

Quantifying the fire regime distributions for severity in Yosemite National Park, California, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thode, Andrea E.; van Wagtendonk, Jan W.; Miller, Jay D.; Quinn, James F.

2011-01-01

This paper quantifies current fire severity distributions for 19 different fire-regime types in Yosemite National Park, California, USA. Landsat Thematic Mapper remote sensing data are used to map burn severity for 99 fires (cumulatively over 97 000 ha) that burned in Yosemite over a 20-year period. These maps are used to quantify the frequency distributions of fire severity by fire-regime type. A classification is created for the resultant distributions and they are discussed within the context of four vegetation zones: the foothill shrub and woodland zone; the lower montane forest zone; the upper montane forest zone and the subalpine forest zone. The severity distributions can form a building block from which to discuss current fire regimes across the Sierra Nevada in California. This work establishes a framework for comparing the effects of current fires on our landscapes with our notions of how fires historically burned, and how current fire severity distributions differ from our desired future conditions. As this process is refined, a new set of information will be available to researchers and land managers to help understand how fire regimes have changed from the past and how we might attempt to manage them in the future.

Collaboration in Action: Office of Research and Development ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The "Collaboration in Action: US EPA's Office of Research and Develop - Current Wildfire Research Program" was invited by the USDA's US Forest Service's Scientific Executive Committee to provide USFS scientific leadership active and potential future opportunities for cooperation/collaboration. Health impacts of wildfire smoke merit the attention and action of the US EPA and current research is supported in the ACE and SHC Research Programs. Wildland fire smoke research has taken on greater importance because the 1) contribution of wildland fire PM emissions relative to total US PM emissions is increasing, 2) the population health impacts are measurable and costly, 3) vulnerable and sensitive populations at-risk are increasing attendant to our aging U.S. population and the increasing area of the wildland-urban interface, and 4) health impacts of smoke could be minimized by identifying at-risk individuals and reducing their exposures. Examples are provided. The "Collaboration in Action: US EPA's Office of Research and Develop - Current Wildfire Research Program" was invited by the USDA's US Forest Service's Scientific Executive Committee to provide USFS scientific leadership active and potential future opportunities for cooperation/collaboration.

Estimating live fuel status by drought indices: an approach for assessing local impact of climate change on fire danger

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pellizzaro, Grazia; Dubrovsky, Martin; Bortolu, Sara; Ventura, Andrea; Arca, Bachisio; Masia, Pierpaolo; Duce, Pierpaolo

2014-05-01

Mediterranean shrubs are an important component of both Mediterranean vegetation communities and understorey vegetation. They also constitute the surface fuels primarily responsible for the ignition and the spread of wildland fires in Mediterranean forests. Although fire spread and behaviour are dependent on several factors, the water content of live fuel plays an important role in determining fire occurrence and spread, especially in the Mediterranean shrubland, where live fuel is often the main component of the available fuel which catches fire. According to projections on future climate, an increase in risk of summer droughts is likely to take place in Southern Europe. More prolonged drought seasons induced by climatic changes are likely to influence general flammability characteristics of fuel, affecting load distribution in vegetation strata, floristic composition, and live and dead fuel ratio. In addition, variations in precipitation and mean temperature could directly affect fuel water status, and consequently flammability, and length of critical periods of high ignition danger for Mediterranean ecosystems. The main aim of this work was to propose a methodology for evaluating possible impacts of future climate change on moisture dynamic and length of fire danger period at local scale. Specific objectives were: i) evaluating performances of meteorological drought indices in describing seasonal pattern of live fuel moisture content (LFMC), and ii) simulating the potential impacts of future climate changes on the duration of fire danger period. Measurements of LFMC seasonal pattern of three Mediterranean shrub species were performed in North Western Sardinia (Italy) for 8 years. Seasonal patterns of LFMC were compared with the Drought Code of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index and the Keetch-Byram Drought Index. Analysis of frequency distribution and cumulative distribution curves were carried out in order to evaluate performance of codes and to identify threshold values of indices useful to determine the end of the potential fire season due to fuel status. A weather generator linked to climate change scenarios derived from 17 available General Circulation Models (GCMs) was used to produce synthetic weather series, representing present and future climates, for four selected sites located in North Sardinia, Italy. Finally, impacts of future climate change on fire season length at local scale were simulated. Results confirmed that the projected climate scenarios over the Mediterranean area will determine an overall increase of the fire season length.

Modeling impacts of fire severity on successional trajectories and future fire behavior in Alaskan boreal forests

Treesearch

Jill F. Johnstone; T. Scott Rupp; Mark Olson; David. Verbyla

2011-01-01

Much of the boreal forest in western North America and Alaska experiences frequent, stand-replacing wildfires. Secondary succession after fire initiates most forest stands and variations in fire characteristics can have strong effects on pathways of succession. Variations in surface fire severity that influence whether regenerating forests are dominated by coniferous...

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Short, Steven M.; Coles, Garill A.; Bohlander, Karl L.

In June 2004 the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) amended its fire protection requirements to permit existing nuclear power reactor licensees to voluntarily adopt fire protection requirements contained in National Fire Protection Association (NFPA) Standard 805. NFPA 805 is a performance-based standard for nuclear power plant fire protection that is an alternative to the deterministic, prescriptive fire protection requirements, such as 10 CFR 50 Appendix R, that was issued in 1980. One aspect of implementing NFPA 805 is that the licensee adopts the performance goals, objectives, and criteria for nuclear safety specified in the Standard. These goals, objectives, and criteriamore » can be met through the implementation of deterministic approaches or performance-based approaches, including engineering analyses, probabilistic risk assessment, and fire modeling. Licensees voluntarily adopting the fire protection requirements in NFPA 805 must submit a license amendment request (LAR) to the NRC. The LAR provides the new proposed fire protection licensing basis, including the methodology and results of required evaluations and analyses that show how the NFPA 805 performance criteria are met. As of August 2014, licensees have submitted LARs for 26 nuclear power plants, representing 42 nuclear reactor units. Of these, 7 nuclear power plants, representing 10 nuclear reactor units, have been issued a safety evaluation (SE) by the NRC approving transition of their fire protection licensing basis to one that complies with NFPA 805. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) supports the NRC staff’s technical review of the LARs in the areas of fundamental fire protection, safe shutdown analysis, and Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA). PNNL, of course, cannot speak for the nuclear industry and its choice of implementation strategies or the NRC staff’s assessment of the approaches being taken to adopt NFPA 805. However, as a reviewer of the technical details of these submittals, PNNL is in a position to observe the array of implementation tactics taken in these submittals, and observe different ways licensees are making the NFPA 805 process work. For example, we see differences in how fire areas are being transitioned, the kinds of plant modifications being implemented, the changes being made to plant procedures, the number and types of recovery actions being credited, and the kinds and extent of detailed modeling being performed in support of the Fire PRAs. As a caveat, we note that it is probably too early to comment on the overall success or limitations of the NFPA 805 process or provide lessons learned for the future. Furthermore, it is not our intention to endorse any particular approach taken in a submittal over another or to critique the industry or the regulator. Rather our goal in this paper is to summarize a set of interesting and useful differences across submittals that may provide context for further future discussions about what we (i.e., reviewers, industry, and regulators) have learned in being part of the NFPA process; and how to best use that information to inform future NFPA 805 activities or other risk-informed endeavors.« less

Fire Consortia for Advanced Modeling of Meteorology and Smoke-FCAMMS: a National Paradigm for Wildland Fire and Smoke Management

Treesearch

A. R. Riebau; D. G. Fox

2003-01-01

Fires can be catastrophic, but only when the weather permits. Predicting the weather more than a few hours into the future with accuracy, precision and reliability is an on-going challenge to researchers. Accurate and precise forecasting for more than a few hours into the future has been virtually unrealizable until the latter half of the 20th Century. In the modern...

Memory modulates journey-dependent coding in the rat hippocampus

PubMed Central

Ferbinteanu, J.; Shirvalkar, P.; Shapiro, M. L.

2011-01-01

Neurons in the rat hippocampus signal current location by firing in restricted areas called place fields. During goal-directed tasks in mazes, place fields can also encode past and future positions through journey-dependent activity, which could guide hippocampus-dependent behavior and underlie other temporally extended memories, such as autobiographical recollections. The relevance of journey-dependent activity for hippocampal-dependent memory, however, is not well understood. To further investigate the relationship between hippocampal journey-dependent activity and memory we compared neural firing in rats performing two mnemonically distinct but behaviorally identical tasks in the plus maze: a hippocampus-dependent spatial navigation task, and a hippocampus-independent cue response task. While place, prospective, and retrospective coding reflected temporally extended behavioral episodes in both tasks, memory strategy altered coding differently before and after the choice point. Before the choice point, when discriminative selection of memory strategy was critical, a switch between the tasks elicited a change in a field’s coding category, so that a field that signaled current location in one task coded pending journeys in the other task. After the choice point, however, when memory strategy became irrelevant, the fields preserved coding categories across tasks, so that the same field consistently signaled either current location or the recent journeys. Additionally, on the start arm firing rates were affected at comparable levels by task and journey, while on the goal arm firing rates predominantly encoded journey. The data demonstrate a direct link between journey-dependent coding and memory, and suggest that episodes are encoded by both population and firing rate coding. PMID:21697365

Display Developer for Firing Room Applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bowman, Elizabeth A.

2013-01-01

The firing room at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) is responsible for all NASA human spaceflight launch operations, therefore it is vital that all displays within the firing room be properly tested, up-to-date, and user-friendly during a launch. The Ground Main Propulsion System (GMPS) requires a number of remote displays for Vehicle Integration and Launch (VIL) Operations at KSC. My project is to develop remote displays for the GMPS using the Display Services and Framework (DSF) editor. These remote displays will be based on model images provided by GMPS through PowerPoint. Using the DSF editor, the PowerPoint images can be recreated with active buttons associated with the correct Compact Unique Identifiers (CUIs). These displays will be documented in the Software Requirements and Design Specifications (SRDS) at the 90% GMPS Design Review. In the future, these remote displays will be available for other developers to improve, edit, or add on to so that the display may be incorporated into the firing room to be used for launches.

The Evolution of U.S. Army Doctrine: from Active Defense to Airland Battle and Beyond

DTIC Science & Technology

1991-05-13

Battle-Future? What lessons can be drawn that might inform the development and employment of U.S. Army doctrine in the future? This thesis will argue...These highly lethal fires can only restore our freedom to maneuver if the enemy cannot respond in kind. 125"Two Companies to Produce Winning SADARM...the ability to detect and destroy any battalion-sized unit that moves as far away as 400 kilometers. If the Soviets can do that as well, what safety

KSC-2014-1971

NASA Image and Video Library

2014-04-03

CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. – The Ground Systems Development and Operations Program is overseeing efforts to create a new multi-user firing room in Firing Room 4 in the Launch Control Center at NASA's Kennedy Space Center in Florida. The main floor consoles, cabling and wires below the floor and ceiling tiles above have been removed. Sub-flooring has been installed and the room is marked off to create four separate rooms on the main floor. In view along the soffit are space shuttle launch plaques for 21 missions launched from Firing Room 4. The design of Firing Room 4 will incorporate five control room areas that are flexible to meet current and future NASA and commercial user requirements. The equipment and most of the consoles from Firing Room 4 were moved to Firing Room 2 for possible future reuse. Photo credit: NASA/Ben Smegelsky

Current and future patterns of fire-induced forest degradation in Amazonia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Faria, Bruno L.; Brando, Paulo M.; Macedo, Marcia N.; Panday, Prajjwal K.; Soares-Filho, Britaldo S.; Coe, Michael T.

2017-09-01

Amazon droughts directly increase forest flammability by reducing forest understory air and fuel moisture. Droughts also increase forest flammability indirectly by decreasing soil moisture, triggering leaf shedding, branch loss, and tree mortality—all of which contribute to increased fuel loads. These direct and indirect effects can cause widespread forest fires that reduce forest carbon stocks in the Amazon, with potentially important consequences for the global carbon cycle. These processes are expected to become more widespread, common, and intense as global climate changes, yet the mechanisms linking droughts, wildfires, and associated changes in carbon stocks remain poorly understood. Here, we expanded the capabilities of a dynamic forest carbon model to better represent (1) drought effects on carbon and fuel dynamics and (2) understory fire behavior and severity. We used the refined model to quantify changes in Pan-Amazon live carbon stocks as a function of the maximum climatological water deficit (MCWD) and fire intensity, under both historical and future climate conditions. We found that the 2005 and 2010 droughts increased potential fire intensity by 226 kW m-1 and 494 kW m-1, respectively. These increases were due primarily to increased understory dryness (109 kW m-1 in 2005; 124 kW m-1 in 2010) and altered forest structure (117 kW m-1 in 2005; 370 kW m-1 in 2010) effects. Combined, these historic droughts drove total simulated reductions in live carbon stocks of 0.016 (2005) and 0.027 (2010) PgC across the Amazon Basin. Projected increases in future fire intensity increased simulated carbon losses by up to 90% per unit area burned, compared with modern climate. Increased air temperature was the primary driver of changes in simulated future fire intensity, while reduced precipitation was secondary, particularly in the eastern portion of the Basin. Our results show that fire-drought interactions strongly affect live carbon stocks and that future climate change, combined with the synergistic effects of drought on forest flammability, may strongly influence the stability of tropical forests in the future.

Constructing a sustainable power sector in China: current and future emissions of coal-fired power plants from 2010 to 2030

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tong, D.; Zhang, Q.

2017-12-01

As the largest energy infrastructure in China, power sector consumed more coal than any other sector and threatened air quality and greenhouse gas (GHG) abatement target. In this work, we assessed the evolution of coal-fired power plants in China during 2010-2030 and the evolution of associated emissions for the same period by using a unit-based emission projection model which integrated the historical power plants information, turnover of the future power plant fleet, and the evolution of end-of-pipe control technologies. We found that, driven by the stringent environmental legislation, SO2, NOx, and PM2.5 emissions from China's coal-fired power plants decreased by 49%, 45%, and 24% respectively during 2010-2015, comparing to 14% increase of coal consumption and 15% increase in CO2 emissions. We estimated that under current national energy development planning, coal consumption and CO2 emissions from coal-fired power plants will continue to increase until 2030, in which against the China's Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) targets. Early retirement of old and low-efficient power plants will cumulatively reduce 2.2 Pg CO2 emissions from the baseline scenario during 2016-2030, but still could not curb CO2 emissions from the peak before 2030. Owing to the implementation of "near zero" emission control policy, we projected that emissions of air pollutants will significantly decrease during the same period under all scenarios, indicating the decoupling trends of air pollutants and CO2 emissions. Although with limited direct emission reduction benefits, increasing operating hours of power plants could avoid 236 GW of new power plants construction, which could indirectly reduce emissions embodied in the construction activity. Our results identified a more sustainable pathway for China's coal-fired power plants, which could reduce air pollutant emissions, improve the energy efficiency, and slow down the construction of new units. However, continuous construction of new coal-fired power plants driven by increased electricity demand would pose a potential threat to climate change mitigation and China's peak carbon pledge, and more aggressive CO2 emission reduction policy should be implemented in the future.

The relationship of large fire occurrence with drought and fire danger indices in the western USA, 1984-2008: The role of temporal scale

Treesearch

Karin L. Riley; John T. Abatzoglou; Isaac C. Grenfell; Anna E. Klene; Faith Ann Heinsch

2013-01-01

The relationship between large fire occurrence and drought has important implications for fire prediction under current and future climates. This study’s primary objective was to evaluate correlations between drought and fire-danger- rating indices representing short- and long-term drought, to determine which had the strongest relationships with large fire occurrence...

Detection rates of the MODIS active fire product in the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hawbaker, T.J.; Radeloff, V.C.; Syphard, A.D.; Zhu, Z.; Stewart, S.I.

2008-01-01

MODIS active fire data offer new information about global fire patterns. However, uncertainties in detection rates can render satellite-derived fire statistics difficult to interpret. We evaluated the MODIS 1??km daily active fire product to quantify detection rates for both Terra and Aqua MODIS sensors, examined how cloud cover and fire size affected detection rates, and estimated how detection rates varied across the United States. MODIS active fire detections were compared to 361 reference fires (??? 18??ha) that had been delineated using pre- and post-fire Landsat imagery. Reference fires were considered detected if at least one MODIS active fire pixel occurred within 1??km of the edge of the fire. When active fire data from both Aqua and Terra were combined, 82% of all reference fires were found, but detection rates were less for Aqua and Terra individually (73% and 66% respectively). Fires not detected generally had more cloudy days, but not when the Aqua data were considered exclusively. MODIS detection rates decreased with fire size, and the size at which 50% of all fires were detected was 105??ha when combining Aqua and Terra (195??ha for Aqua and 334??ha for Terra alone). Across the United States, detection rates were greatest in the West, lower in the Great Plains, and lowest in the East. The MODIS active fire product captures large fires in the U.S. well, but may under-represent fires in areas with frequent cloud cover or rapidly burning, small, and low-intensity fires. We recommend that users of the MODIS active fire data perform individual validations to ensure that all relevant fires are included. ?? 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

KSC-2014-1972

NASA Image and Video Library

2014-04-03

CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. – The Ground Systems Development and Operations Program is overseeing efforts to create a new multi-user firing room in Firing Room 4 in the Launch Control Center at NASA's Kennedy Space Center in Florida. The main floor consoles, cabling and wires below the floor and ceiling tiles have been removed. Sub-flooring has been installed and the room is marked off to create four separate rooms on the main floor. The design of Firing Room 4 will incorporate five control room areas that are flexible to meet current and future NASA and commercial user requirements. The equipment and most of the consoles from Firing Room 4 were moved to Firing Room 2 for possible future reuse. Photo credit: NASA/Ben Smegelsky

KSC-2014-1969

NASA Image and Video Library

2014-04-03

CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. – Three rows of upper level management consoles are all that remain in Firing Room 4 in the Launch Control Center at NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida. The main floor consoles, cabling and wires below the floor and ceiling tiles above have been removed. The Ground Systems Development and Operations Program is overseeing efforts to create a new firing room based on a multi-user concept that will support NASA and commercial launch needs. The design of Firing Room 4 will incorporate five control room areas that are flexible to meet current and future NASA and commercial user requirements. The equipment and most of the consoles from Firing Room 4 were moved to Firing Room 2 for possible future reuse. Photo credit: NASA/Ben Smegelsky

KSC-2014-1970

NASA Image and Video Library

2014-04-03

CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. – Three rows of upper level management consoles are all that remain in Firing Room 4 in the Launch Control Center at NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida. The main floor consoles, cabling and wires below the floor and ceiling tiles above have been removed. The Ground Systems Development and Operations Program is overseeing efforts to create a new firing room based on a multi-user concept that will support NASA and commercial launch needs. The design of Firing Room 4 will incorporate five control room areas that are flexible to meet current and future NASA and commercial user requirements. The equipment and most of the consoles from Firing Room 4 were moved to Firing Room 2 for possible future reuse. Photo credit: NASA/Ben Smegelsky

Relation between the National Fire Danger spread component and fire activity in the Lake States.

Treesearch

Donald A. Haines; William A. Main; Von J. Johnson

1970-01-01

Relationships between the 1964 version of the spread component of the National Fire Danger Rating System and fire activity were established for Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. The measures of fire activity included the probability of a fire-day as well as a C, D, or E fire-day, number of fires per fire-day, and acres burned per fire. These measures were examined by...

Climatic and Landscape Influences on Fire Regimes from 1984 to 2010 in the Western United States

PubMed Central

Liu, Zhihua; Wimberly, Michael C.

2015-01-01

An improved understanding of the relative influences of climatic and landscape controls on multiple fire regime components is needed to enhance our understanding of modern fire regimes and how they will respond to future environmental change. To address this need, we analyzed the spatio-temporal patterns of fire occurrence, size, and severity of large fires (> 405 ha) in the western United States from 1984–2010. We assessed the associations of these fire regime components with environmental variables, including short-term climate anomalies, vegetation type, topography, and human influences, using boosted regression tree analysis. Results showed that large fire occurrence, size, and severity each exhibited distinctive spatial and spatio-temporal patterns, which were controlled by different sets of climate and landscape factors. Antecedent climate anomalies had the strongest influences on fire occurrence, resulting in the highest spatial synchrony. In contrast, climatic variability had weaker influences on fire size and severity and vegetation types were the most important environmental determinants of these fire regime components. Topography had moderately strong effects on both fire occurrence and severity, and human influence variables were most strongly associated with fire size. These results suggest a potential for the emergence of novel fire regimes due to the responses of fire regime components to multiple drivers at different spatial and temporal scales. Next-generation approaches for projecting future fire regimes should incorporate indirect climate effects on vegetation type changes as well as other landscape effects on multiple components of fire regimes. PMID:26465959

Projected changes in atmospheric heating due to changes in fire disturbance and the snow season in the western Arctic, 2003–2100

USGS Publications Warehouse

Euskirchen, E.S.; McGuire, A. David; Rupp, T.S.; Chapin, F. S.; Walsh, J.E.

2009-01-01

In high latitudes, changes in climate impact fire regimes and snow cover duration, altering the surface albedo and the heating of the regional atmosphere. In the western Arctic, under four scenarios of future climate change and future fire regimes (2003–2100), we examined changes in surface albedo and the related changes in regional atmospheric heating due to: (1) vegetation changes following a changing fire regime, and (2) changes in snow cover duration. We used a spatially explicit dynamic vegetation model (Alaskan Frame-based Ecosystem Code) to simulate changes in successional dynamics associated with fire under the future climate scenarios, and the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model to simulate changes in snow cover. Changes in summer heating due to the changes in the forest stand age distributions under future fire regimes showed a slight cooling effect due to increases in summer albedo (mean across climates of −0.9 W m−2 decade−1). Over this same time period, decreases in snow cover (mean reduction in the snow season of 4.5 d decade−1) caused a reduction in albedo, and a heating effect (mean across climates of 4.3 W m−2 decade−1). Adding both the summer negative change in atmospheric heating due to changes in fire regimes to the positive changes in atmospheric heating due to changes in the length of the snow season resulted in a 3.4 W m−2 decade−1 increase in atmospheric heating. These findings highlight the importance of gaining a better understanding of the influences of changes in surface albedo on atmospheric heating due to both changes in the fire regime and changes in snow cover duration.

Humans, Topograpghy, and Wildland Fire: The Ingredients for Long-term Patterns in Ecosystems

Treesearch

Richard P. Guyette; Daniel C. Dey

2000-01-01

Three factors, human population density, topography, and culture interact to create temporal and spatial differences in the frequency of fire at the landscape level. These factors can be quantitatively related to fire frequency. The fire model can be used to reconstruct historic and to predict future frequency of fire in ecosystems, as well as to identify long-term...

Humans, topography, and wildland fire: The ingredients for long-term patterns in ecosystems

Treesearch

Richard P. Guyette; Daniel C. Dey

2000-01-01

Three factors, human population density, topography,and culture interact to create temporal and spatial differences in the frequency of fire at the landscape level. These facters can be quantitatively related to fire frequency. The fire model can be used to reconstruct historic and to predict future frequency of fire in ecosystems, as well as to identify long-term...

Forest fire laboratory at Riverside and fire research in California: past, present, and future

Treesearch

Carl C. Wilson; James B. Davis

1988-01-01

The need for protection from uncontrolled fire in California was identified by Abbott Kinney, Chairman of the State Board of Forestry, more than 75 years before the construction of the Riverside Forest Fire Laboratory. With the organization of the USDA Forest Service the need for an effective fire protection organization became apparent. In response, a...

The Great Basin: Wildland Fire Management in the Year 2000

Treesearch

James B. Webb

1987-01-01

The future of wildland fire management depends on the course chosen by fire managers today. Our responsiveness to issues will determine how much we influence where we go. Economics in concert with a better appreciation of fire's role in ecosystem dynamics will significantly alter fire management as we know it today. Public subsidies of homeowners who refuse to...

Allowing a wildfire to burn: estimating the effect on future fire suppression costs

Treesearch

Rachel M. Houtman; Claire A. Montgomery; Aaron R. Gagnon; David E. Calkin; Thomas G. Dietterich; Sean McGregor; Mark Crowley

2013-01-01

Where a legacy of aggressive wildland fire suppression has left forests in need of fuel reduction, allowing wildland fire to burn may provide fuel treatment benefits, thereby reducing suppression costs from subsequent fires. The least-cost-plus-net-value-change model of wildland fire economics includes benefits of wildfire in a framework for evaluating suppression...

Fire-danger rating in the future.

Treesearch

James E. Hefner

1967-01-01

The forest resources of this country must be protected from wildfire. Protection does not eliminate fire but does reduce loss from fire. In recent years, more acres have been burned on the unprotected 3 percent of forest land than on the 97 percent under organized fire protection. Protection from fire has saved more than 100 million acres per year. This figure is based...

Management and climate contributions to satellite-derived active fire trends in the contiguous United States

PubMed Central

Lin, Hsiao-Wen; McCarty, Jessica L; Wang, Dongdong; Rogers, Brendan M; Morton, Douglas C; Collatz, G James; Jin, Yufang; Randerson, James T

2014-01-01

Fires in croplands, plantations, and rangelands contribute significantly to fire emissions in the United States, yet are often overshadowed by wildland fires in efforts to develop inventories or estimate responses to climate change. Here we quantified decadal trends, interannual variability, and seasonality of Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) observations of active fires (thermal anomalies) as a function of management type in the contiguous U.S. during 2001–2010. We used the Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity database to identify active fires within the perimeter of large wildland fires and land cover maps to identify active fires in croplands. A third class of fires defined as prescribed/other included all residual satellite active fire detections. Large wildland fires were the most variable of all three fire types and had no significant annual trend in the contiguous U.S. during 2001–2010. Active fires in croplands, in contrast, increased at a rate of 3.4% per year. Cropland and prescribed/other fire types combined were responsible for 77% of the total active fire detections within the U.S and were most abundant in the south and southeast. In the west, cropland active fires decreased at a rate of 5.9% per year, likely in response to intensive air quality policies. Potential evaporation was a dominant regulator of the interannual variability of large wildland fires, but had a weaker influence on the other two fire types. Our analysis suggests it may be possible to modify landscape fire emissions within the U.S. by influencing the way fires are used in managed ecosystems. Key Points Wildland, cropland, and prescribed fires had different trends and patterns Sensitivity to climate varied with fire type Intensity of air quality regulation influenced cropland burning trends PMID:26213662

Management and climate contributions to satellite-derived active fire trends in the contiguous United States.

PubMed

Lin, Hsiao-Wen; McCarty, Jessica L; Wang, Dongdong; Rogers, Brendan M; Morton, Douglas C; Collatz, G James; Jin, Yufang; Randerson, James T

2014-04-01

Fires in croplands, plantations, and rangelands contribute significantly to fire emissions in the United States, yet are often overshadowed by wildland fires in efforts to develop inventories or estimate responses to climate change. Here we quantified decadal trends, interannual variability, and seasonality of Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) observations of active fires (thermal anomalies) as a function of management type in the contiguous U.S. during 2001-2010. We used the Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity database to identify active fires within the perimeter of large wildland fires and land cover maps to identify active fires in croplands. A third class of fires defined as prescribed/other included all residual satellite active fire detections. Large wildland fires were the most variable of all three fire types and had no significant annual trend in the contiguous U.S. during 2001-2010. Active fires in croplands, in contrast, increased at a rate of 3.4% per year. Cropland and prescribed/other fire types combined were responsible for 77% of the total active fire detections within the U.S and were most abundant in the south and southeast. In the west, cropland active fires decreased at a rate of 5.9% per year, likely in response to intensive air quality policies. Potential evaporation was a dominant regulator of the interannual variability of large wildland fires, but had a weaker influence on the other two fire types. Our analysis suggests it may be possible to modify landscape fire emissions within the U.S. by influencing the way fires are used in managed ecosystems. Wildland, cropland, and prescribed fires had different trends and patternsSensitivity to climate varied with fire typeIntensity of air quality regulation influenced cropland burning trends.

HESFIRE: a global fire model to explore the role of anthropogenic and weather drivers

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Le Page, Yannick LB; Morton, Douglas; Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin

Vegetation fires are a major driver of ecosystem dynamics and greenhouse gas emissions. Anticipating potential changes in fire activity and their impacts relies first on a realistic model of fire activity (e.g., fire incidence and interannual variability) and second on a model accounting for fire impacts (e.g., mortality and emissions). In this paper, we focus on our understanding of fire activity and describe a new fire model, HESFIRE (Human–Earth System FIRE), which integrates the influence of weather, vegetation characteristics, and human activities on fires in a stand-alone framework. It was developed with a particular emphasis on allowing fires to spreadmore » over consecutive days given their major contribution to burned areas in many ecosystems. A subset of the model parameters was calibrated through an optimization procedure using observation data to enhance our knowledge of regional drivers of fire activity and improve the performance of the model on a global scale. Modeled fire activity showed reasonable agreement with observations of burned area, fire seasonality, and interannual variability in many regions, including for spatial and temporal domains not included in the optimization procedure. Significant discrepancies are investigated, most notably regarding fires in boreal regions and in xeric ecosystems and also fire size distribution. The sensitivity of fire activity to model parameters is analyzed to explore the dominance of specific drivers across regions and ecosystems. The characteristics of HESFIRE and the outcome of its evaluation provide insights into the influence of anthropogenic activities and weather, and their interactions, on fire activity.« less

HESFIRE: a global fire model to explore the role of anthropogenic and weather drivers

DOE PAGES

Le Page, Yannick LB; Morton, Douglas; Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin; ...

2015-02-13

Vegetation fires are a major driver of ecosystem dynamics and greenhouse gas emissions. Anticipating potential changes in fire activity and their impacts relies first on a realistic model of fire activity (e.g., fire incidence and interannual variability) and second on a model accounting for fire impacts (e.g., mortality and emissions). In this paper, we focus on our understanding of fire activity and describe a new fire model, HESFIRE (Human–Earth System FIRE), which integrates the influence of weather, vegetation characteristics, and human activities on fires in a stand-alone framework. It was developed with a particular emphasis on allowing fires to spreadmore » over consecutive days given their major contribution to burned areas in many ecosystems. A subset of the model parameters was calibrated through an optimization procedure using observation data to enhance our knowledge of regional drivers of fire activity and improve the performance of the model on a global scale. Modeled fire activity showed reasonable agreement with observations of burned area, fire seasonality, and interannual variability in many regions, including for spatial and temporal domains not included in the optimization procedure. Significant discrepancies are investigated, most notably regarding fires in boreal regions and in xeric ecosystems and also fire size distribution. The sensitivity of fire activity to model parameters is analyzed to explore the dominance of specific drivers across regions and ecosystems. The characteristics of HESFIRE and the outcome of its evaluation provide insights into the influence of anthropogenic activities and weather, and their interactions, on fire activity.« less

Fire in the Vegetation and Peatlands of Borneo, 1997-2007: Patterns, Drivers and Emissions from Biomass Burning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spessa, Allan; Weber, Ulrich; Langner, Andreas; Siegert, Florian; Heil, Angelika

2010-05-01

The peatland forests of equatorial SE Asia cover over 20 Mha with most located in Indonesia. Indonesian peatlands are globally one of the largest near-surface reserves of terrestrial organic carbon, with peat deposits of up to 20m thick and an estimated carbon storage of 55-61 Gt. The destructive fires in Indonesia during the exceptionally strong drought of late 1997 and early 1998 mark some of the largest peak emissions events in recorded history of global fires. Past studies estimate that about 1Gt of carbon was released to the atmosphere from the Indonesian fires in 1997- equivalent to 14% of the average global annual fossil fuel emissions released during the 1990s. Previous studies have established a non-linear negative correlation between fires and antecedent rainfall in Borneo, with ENSO-driven droughts being identified as the main cause of below-average rainfall events over the past decade or so. However, while these studies suggest that this non-linear relationship is mediated by ignitions associated with land use and land cover change (LULCC), they have not demonstrated it. A clear link between fires and logging in Borneo has been reported, but this work was restricted to eastern Kalimantan and the period 1997-98. The relationship between fires, emissions, rainfall and LULCC across the island of Borneo therefore remains to be examined using available fine resolution data over a multi-year period. Using rainfall data, up-to-date peat maps and state-of-the art satellite sensor data to determine burnt area and deforestation patterns over the decade 1997-2007, we show at a pixel working resolution of 0.25 degrees the following: Burning across Borneo predominated in southern Kalimantan. Fire activity is negatively and non-linearly correlated to rainfall mainly in pixels that have undergone a significant reduction in forest cover, and that the bigger the reduction, the stronger the correlation. Such pixels occur overwhelmingly in southern Kalimantan. These correlations are noticeably much weaker or absent in Sarawak and Sabah, and central Borneo, where little or no deforestation was observed. Emissions from biomass burning reflect fire activity, and that fires in the carbon-rich peats of southern Kalimantan dominate the emissions profile during the El Nino years of 1997-98, 2002, 2004 and 2006. Previous work in southern Amazon forests demonstrates that recurrent fires promote a change from tree-dominated to grass-dominated ecosystems which, in turn, promotes even more fires. We show that recurrent fire and deforestation are also linked as part of a similar positive feedback process in Kalimantan. Our results support the detailed field work undertaken in 1997-98 in East Kalimantan, and reinforce these findings across time and space. Emissions from fires in Kalimantan peatlands represent a serious perturbation in terms of forcing from trace gases and aerosols on regional and global climate. Several global and regional climate modelling studies have reported that equatorial SE Asia, including Borneo, will experience reduced rainfall in future decades. At the same time, demands for establishing pulp paper and palm oil plantations to replace native rainforests, especially on peatlands where tenure conflicts among land owners tend to be minimal, is forecast to increase. These joint scenarios imply even more fires and emissions in future. It is critical therefore that present efforts to mitigate emissions through reduced deforestation programs in the region works, otherwise the consequences will be disastrous.

The pollen record of a 20th century spruce beetle (Dendroctonus rufipennis) outbreak in a Colorado subalpine forest, USA

Treesearch

R. Scott Anderson; Susan J. Smith; Ann M. Lynch; Brian W. Geils

2010-01-01

The frequency and intensity of ecosystem disturbance, including outbreaks of forest insects and forest fires, is expected to increase in the future as a result of higher temperatures and prolonged drought. While many studies have concentrated on the future climatic impacts on fire, little is known about the impact of future climate on insect infestation....

The Cooney Ridge Fire Experiment: An early operation to relate pre-, active, and post-fire field and remotely sensed measurements

Treesearch

Andrew T. Hudak; Patrick H. Freeborn; Sarah A. Lewis; Sharon M. Hood; Helen Y. Smith; Colin C. Hardy; Robert J. Kremens; Bret W. Butler; Casey Teske; Robert G. Tissell; Lloyd P. Queen; Bryce L. Nordgren; Benjamin C. Bright; Penelope Morgan; Philip J. Riggan; Lee Macholz; Leigh B. Lentile; James P. Riddering; Edward E. Mathews

2018-01-01

The Cooney Ridge Fire Experiment conducted by fire scientists in 2003 was a burnout operation supported by a fire suppression crew on the active Cooney Ridge wildfire incident. The fire experiment included measurements of pre-fire fuels, active fire behavior, and immediate post-fire effects. Heat flux measurements collected at multiple scales with multiple ground and...

Hot-Fire Testing of a 1N AF-M315E Thruster

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Burnside, Christopher G.; Pedersen, Kevin; Pierce, Charles W.

2015-01-01

This hot-fire test continues NASA investigation of green propellant technologies for future missions. To show the potential for green propellants to replace some hydrazine systems in future spacecraft, NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) is continuing to embark on hot-fire test campaigns with various green propellant blends. NASA completed a hot-fire test of a 1N AF-M315E monopropellant thruster at the Marshall Space Flight Center in the small altitude test stand located in building 4205. The thruster is a ground test article used for basic performance determination and catalyst studies. The purpose of the hot-fire testing was for performance determination of a 1N size thruster and form a baseline from which to study catalyst performance and life with follow-on testing to be conducted at a later date. The thruster performed as expected. The result of the hot-fire testing are presented in this paper and presentation.

Forecasting timber, biomass, and tree carbon pools with the output of state and transition models

Treesearch

Xiaoping Zhou; Miles A. Hemstrom

2012-01-01

The Integrated Landscape Assessment Project (ILAP) uses spatial vegetation data and state and transition models (STM) to forecast future vegetation conditions and the interacting effects of natural disturbances and management activities. Results from ILAP will help land managers, planners, and policymakers evaluate management strategies that reduce fire risk, improve...

Interactions of landscape disturbances and climate change dictate ecological pattern and process: spatial modeling of wildfire, insect, and disease dynamics under future climates

Treesearch

Rachel A. Loehman; Robert E. Keane; Lisa M. Holsinger; Zhiwei Wu

2017-01-01

Context: Interactions among disturbances, climate, and vegetation influence landscape patterns and ecosystem processes. Climate changes, exotic invasions, beetle outbreaks, altered fire regimes, and human activities may interact to produce landscapes that appear and function beyond historical analogs. Objectives We used the mechanistic...

Vulnerability of carbon storage in North American boreal forests to wildfires during the 21st century

USGS Publications Warehouse

Balshi, M. S.; McGuire, Anthony David; Duffy, P.; Flannigan, M.; Kicklighter, David W.; Melillo, J.

2009-01-01

The boreal forest contains large reserves of carbon. Across this region, wildfires influence the temporal and spatial dynamics of carbon storage. In this study, we estimate fire emissions and changes in carbon storage for boreal North America over the 21st century. We use a gridded data set developed with a multivariate adaptive regression spline approach to determine how area burned varies each year with changing climatic and fuel moisture conditions. We apply the process-based Terrestrial Ecosystem Model to evaluate the role of future fire on the carbon dynamics of boreal North America in the context of changing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration and climate in the A2 and B2 emissions scenarios of the CGCM2 global climate model. Relative to the last decade of the 20th century, decadal total carbon emissions from fire increase by 2.5–4.4 times by 2091–2100, depending on the climate scenario and assumptions about CO2fertilization. Larger fire emissions occur with warmer climates or if CO2 fertilization is assumed to occur. Despite the increases in fire emissions, our simulations indicate that boreal North America will be a carbon sink over the 21st century if CO2 fertilization is assumed to occur in the future. In contrast, simulations excluding CO2 fertilization over the same period indicate that the region will change to a carbon source to the atmosphere, with the source being 2.1 times greater under the warmer A2 scenario than the B2 scenario. To improve estimates of wildfire on terrestrial carbon dynamics in boreal North America, future studies should incorporate the role of dynamic vegetation to represent more accurately post-fire successional processes, incorporate fire severity parameters that change in time and space, account for human influences through increased fire suppression, and integrate the role of other disturbances and their interactions with future fire regime.

Understanding the effects of fire management practices on forest health: implications for weeds and vegetation structure

Treesearch

Anne E. Black; Peter Landres

2012-01-01

Current fire policy to restore ecosystem function and resiliency and reduce buildup of hazardous fuels implies a larger future role for fire (both natural and human ignitions) (USDA Forest Service and U.S. Department of the Interior 2000). Yet some fire management (such as building fire line, spike camps, or helispots) potentially causes both short- and longterm...

Thinning and prescribed fire and projected trends in wood product potential, financial return, and fire hazard in New Mexico.

Treesearch

Roger D. Fight; R. James Barbour; Glenn Christensen; Guy L. Pinjuv; Rao V. Nagubadi

2004-01-01

This work was undertaken under a joint fire science project "Assessing the need, costs, and potential benefits of prescribed fire and mechanical treatments to reduce fire hazard." This paper compares the future mix of timber projects under two treatment scenarios for New Mexico.We developed and demonstrated an analytical method that uses readily available...

Thinning and prescribed fire and projected trends in wood product potential, financial return, and fire hazard in Montana.

Treesearch

R. James Barbour; Roger D. Fight; Glenn A. Christensen; Guy L. Pinjuv; Rao V. Nagubadi

2004-01-01

This work was undertaken under a joint fire science project "Assessing the need, costs, and potential benefits of prescribed fire and mechanical treatments to reduce fire hazard." This paper compares the future mix of timber products under two treatment scenarios for the state of Montana. We developed and demonstrated an analytical method that uses readily...

Estimation of Wild Fire Risk Area based on Climate and Maximum Entropy in Korean Peninsular

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, T.; Lim, C. H.; Song, C.; Lee, W. K.

2015-12-01

The number of forest fires and accompanying human injuries and physical damages has been increased by frequent drought. In this study, forest fire danger zone of Korea is estimated to predict and prepare for future forest fire hazard regions. The MaxEnt (Maximum Entropy) model is used to estimate the forest fire hazard region which estimates the probability distribution of the status. The MaxEnt model is primarily for the analysis of species distribution, but its applicability for various natural disasters is getting recognition. The detailed forest fire occurrence data collected by the MODIS for past 5 years (2010-2014) is used as occurrence data for the model. Also meteorology, topography, vegetation data are used as environmental variable. In particular, various meteorological variables are used to check impact of climate such as annual average temperature, annual precipitation, precipitation of dry season, annual effective humidity, effective humidity of dry season, aridity index. Consequently, the result was valid based on the AUC(Area Under the Curve) value (= 0.805) which is used to predict accuracy in the MaxEnt model. Also predicted forest fire locations were practically corresponded with the actual forest fire distribution map. Meteorological variables such as effective humidity showed the greatest contribution, and topography variables such as TWI (Topographic Wetness Index) and slope also contributed on the forest fire. As a result, the east coast and the south part of Korea peninsula were predicted to have high risk on the forest fire. In contrast, high-altitude mountain area and the west coast appeared to be safe with the forest fire. The result of this study is similar with former studies, which indicates high risks of forest fire in accessible area and reflects climatic characteristics of east and south part in dry season. To sum up, we estimated the forest fire hazard zone with existing forest fire locations and environment variables and had meaningful result with artificial and natural effect. It is expected to predict future forest fire risk with future climate variables as the climate changes.

Wildland fire management futures: insights from a foresight panel

Treesearch

Robert L. Olson; David N. Bengston; Leif A. DeVaney; Trevor A.C. Thompson

2015-01-01

Wildland fire management faces unprecedented challenges in the 21st century: the increasingly apparent effects of climate change, more people and structures in the wildland-urban interface, growing costs associated with wildfire management, and the rise of high-impact fires, to name a few. Given these significant and growing challenges, conventional fire management...

Climate change and wildfires

Treesearch

William J. De Groot; Michael D. Flannigan; Brian J. Stocks

2013-01-01

Wildland fire regimes are primarily driven by climate/weather, fuels and people. All of these factors are dynamic and their variable interactions create a mosaic of fire regimes around the world. Climate change will have a substantial impact on future fire regimes in many global regions. Current research suggests a general increase in area burned and fire occurrence...

Fire regimes and approaches for determining fire history

Treesearch

James K. Agee

1996-01-01

Fire has been an important evolutionary influence in forests, affecting species composition, structure, and functional aspects of forest biology. Restoration of wildland forests of the future will depend in part on restoring fire to an appropriate role in forest ecosystems. This may include the "range of natural variability" or other concepts associated with...

FIREMON: Fire effects monitoring and inventory system

Treesearch

Duncan C. Lutes; Robert E. Keane; John F. Caratti; Carl H. Key; Nathan C. Benson; Steve Sutherland; Larry J. Gangi

2006-01-01

Monitoring and inventory to assess the effects of wildland fire is critical for 1) documenting fire effects, 2) assessing ecosystem damage and benefit, 3) evaluating the success or failure of a burn, and 4) appraising the potential for future treatments. However, monitoring fire effects is often difficult because data collection requires abundant funds, resources, and...

International Issues: Report of Futuring Group 9

Treesearch

1987-01-01

The wildland fire scenario outside North American is characterized by increasing amount and severity of wildfires worldwide. In Europe, most of the Mediterranean countries suffer devastating forest fires, despite fire management efforts. Examples of the wildland fire theater within the developing countries and the tropical world have been given at this Symposium on...

The sensitivity of US wildfire occurrence to pre-season soil moisture conditions across ecosystems.

PubMed

Jensen, Daniel; Reager, John T; Zajic, Brittany; Rousseau, Nick; Rodell, Matthew; Hinkley, Everett

2018-01-01

It is generally accepted that year-to-year variability in moisture conditions and drought are linked with increased wildfire occurrence. However, quantifying the sensitivity of wildfire to surface moisture state at seasonal lead-times has been challenging due to the absence of a long soil moisture record with the appropriate coverage and spatial resolution for continental-scale analysis. Here we apply model simulations of surface soil moisture that numerically assimilate observations from NASA's Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission with the US Forest Service's historical Fire-Occurrence Database over the contiguous United States. We quantify the relationships between pre-fire-season soil moisture and subsequent-year wildfire occurrence by land-cover type and produce annual probable wildfire occurrence and burned area maps at 0.25-degree resolution. Cross-validated results generally indicate a higher occurrence of smaller fires when months preceding fire season are wet, while larger fires are more frequent when soils are dry. This result is consistent with the concept of increased fuel accumulation under wet conditions in the pre-season. These results demonstrate the fundamental strength of the relationship between soil moisture and fire activity at long lead-times and are indicative of that relationship's utility for the future development of national-scale predictive capability.

The sensitivity of US wildfire occurrence to pre-season soil moisture conditions across ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jensen, Daniel; Reager, John T.; Zajic, Brittany; Rousseau, Nick; Rodell, Matthew; Hinkley, Everett

2018-01-01

It is generally accepted that year-to-year variability in moisture conditions and drought are linked with increased wildfire occurrence. However, quantifying the sensitivity of wildfire to surface moisture state at seasonal lead-times has been challenging due to the absence of a long soil moisture record with the appropriate coverage and spatial resolution for continental-scale analysis. Here we apply model simulations of surface soil moisture that numerically assimilate observations from NASA’s Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission with the USDA Forest Service’s historical Fire-Occurrence Database over the contiguous United States. We quantify the relationships between pre-fire-season soil moisture and subsequent-year wildfire occurrence by land-cover type and produce annual probable wildfire occurrence and burned area maps at 0.25 degree resolution. Cross-validated results generally indicate a higher occurrence of smaller fires when months preceding fire season are wet, while larger fires are more frequent when soils are dry. This is consistent with the concept of increased fuel accumulation under wet conditions in the pre-season. These results demonstrate the fundamental strength of the relationship between soil moisture and fire activity at long lead-times and are indicative of that relationship’s utility for the future development of national-scale predictive capability.

The Cargo Unmanned Aircraft System: A Future Battlefield Enabler for Enhanced Company Operations and SeaBasing

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-04-14

surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) as well as fire precision hellftre rockets , against the enemy. In my opinion,.UAS’s are the future of Marine...amount of enemy fire aimed at the cargo helicopters delivering their supplies on top of the hills. During the battle ofKhe Sanh, Hill 881 S became a...and finally drastic teclmological improvements within the traditional infantry rifle company. The essence ofECO is to enhancecommand and control, fire

Fire detection from hyperspectral data using neural network approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piscini, Alessandro; Amici, Stefania

2015-10-01

This study describes an application of artificial neural networks for the recognition of flaming areas using hyper- spectral remote sensed data. Satellite remote sensing is considered an effective and safe way to monitor active fires for environmental and people safeguarding. Neural networks are an effective and consolidated technique for the classification of satellite images. Moreover, once well trained, they prove to be very fast in the application stage for a rapid response. At flaming temperature, thanks to its low excitation energy (about 4.34 eV), potassium (K) ionize with a unique doublet emission features. This emission features can be detected remotely providing a detection map of active fire which allows in principle to separate flaming from smouldering areas of vegetation even in presence of smoke. For this study a normalised Advanced K Band Difference (AKBD) has been applied to airborne hyper spectral sensor covering a range of 400-970 nm with resolution 2.9 nm. A back propagation neural network was used for the recognition of active fires affecting the hyperspectral image. The network was trained using all channels of sensor as inputs, and the corresponding AKBD indexes as target output. In order to evaluate its generalization capabilities, the neural network was validated on two independent data sets of hyperspectral images, not used during neural network training phase. The validation results for the independent data-sets had an overall accuracy round 100% for both image and a few commission errors (0.1%), therefore demonstrating the feasibility of estimating the presence of active fires using a neural network approach. Although the validation of the neural network classifier had a few commission errors, the producer accuracies were lower due to the presence of omission errors. Image analysis revealed that those false negatives lie in "smoky" portion fire fronts, and due to the low intensity of the signal. The proposed method can be considered effective both in terms of classification accuracy and generalization capability. In particular our approach proved to be robust in the rejection of false positives, often corresponding to noisy or smoke pixels, whose presence in hyperspectral images can often undermine the performance of traditional classification algorithms. In order to improve neural network performance, future activities will include also the exploiting of hyperspectral images in the shortwave infrared region of the electromagnetic spectrum, covering wavelengths from 1400 to 2500 nm, which include significant emitted radiance from fire.

Future fire emissions associated with projected land use change in Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marlier, M. E.; DeFries, R. S.; Pennington, D.; Ordway, E.; Nelson, E.; Mickley, L.; Koplitz, S.

2013-12-01

Indonesia has experienced rapid land use change in past decades as forests and peatlands are cleared for agricultural development, including oil palm and timber plantations1. Fires are the predominant method of clearing and the subsequent emissions can have important public health impacts by contributing to regional particulate matter and ozone concentrations2. This regional haze was dramatically seen in Singapore during June 2013 due to the transport of emissions from fires in Sumatra. Our study is part of a larger project that will quantify the public health impact of various land use development scenarios for Sumatra over the coming decades. Here, we describe how we translate economic projections of land use change into future fire emissions inventories for GEOS-Chem atmospheric transport simulations. We relate past GFED3 fire emissions3 to detailed 1-km land use change data and MODIS fire radiative power observations, and apply these relationships to future estimates of land use change. The goal of this interdisciplinary project is to use modeling results to interact with policy makers and influence development strategies in ways that protect public health. 1Miettinen et al. 2011. Deforestation rates in insular Southeast Asia between 2000 and 2010. Glob. Change Biol.,17 (7), 2261-2270. 2Marlier et al. 2013. El Niño and health risks from landscape fire emissions in southeast Asia. Nature Clim. Change, 3, 131-136. 3van der Werf et al. 2010. Global fire emissions and the contribution of deforestation, savanna, forest, agricultural, and peat fires (1997-2009). Atmos. Chem. Physics, 10 (23), 11707-11735.

Incorporating Resource Protection Constraints in an Analysis of Landscape Fuel-Treatment Effectiveness in the Northern Sierra Nevada, CA, USA.

PubMed

Dow, Christopher B; Collins, Brandon M; Stephens, Scott L

2016-03-01

Finding novel ways to plan and implement landscape-level forest treatments that protect sensitive wildlife and other key ecosystem components, while also reducing the risk of large-scale, high-severity fires, can prove to be difficult. We examined alternative approaches to landscape-scale fuel-treatment design for the same landscape. These approaches included two different treatment scenarios generated from an optimization algorithm that reduces modeled fire spread across the landscape, one with resource-protection constrains and one without the same. We also included a treatment scenario that was the actual fuel-treatment network implemented, as well as a no-treatment scenario. For all the four scenarios, we modeled hazardous fire potential based on conditional burn probabilities, and projected fire emissions. Results demonstrate that in all the three active treatment scenarios, hazardous fire potential, fire area, and emissions were reduced by approximately 50 % relative to the untreated condition. Results depict that incorporation of constraints is more effective at reducing modeled fire outputs, possibly due to the greater aggregation of treatments, creating greater continuity of fuel-treatment blocks across the landscape. The implementation of fuel-treatment networks using different planning techniques that incorporate real-world constraints can reduce the risk of large problematic fires, allow for landscape-level heterogeneity that can provide necessary ecosystem services, create mixed forest stand structures on a landscape, and promote resilience in the uncertain future of climate change.

A stochastic Forest Fire Model for future land cover scenarios assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fiorucci, P.; Holmes, T.; Gaetani, F.; D'Andrea, M.

2009-04-01

Land cover change and forest fire interaction under climate and socio-economics changes, is one of the main issues of the 21th century. The capability of defining future scenarios of land cover and fire regime allow forest managers to better understand the best actions to be carried out and their long term effects. In this paper a new methodology for land cover change simulations under climate change and fire disturbance is presented and discussed. The methodology is based on the assumption that forest fires exhibits power law frequency-area distribution. The well known Forest Fire Model (FFM), which is an example of self organized criticality, is able to reproduce this behavior. Starting from this observation, a modified version of the FFM has been developed. The new model, called Modified Forest Fire Model (MFFM) introduces several new features. A stochastic model for vegetation growth and regrowth after fire occurrence has been implemented for different kind of vegetations. In addition, a stochastic fire propagation model taking into account topography and vegetation cover has been introduced. The MFFM has been developed with the purpose of estimating vegetation cover changes and fire regimes over a time windows of many years for a given spatial region. Two different case studies have been carried out. The first case study is related with Liguria (Italy), a region of 5400 km2 lying between the Cote d'Azur, France, and Tuscany, Italy, on the northwest coast of the Tyrrhenian Sea. This region is characterized by Mediterranean fire regime. The second case study has been carried out in California (Florida) on a region having similar area and characterized by similar climate conditions. In both cases the model well represents the actual fire regime in terms of power law parameters proving interesting results about future land cover scenarios under climate, land use and socio-economics change.

Controls on variations in MODIS fire radiative power in Alaskan boreal forests: implications for fire severity conditions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barrett, Kirsten; Kasischke, Eric S.

2013-01-01

Fire activity in the Alaskan boreal forest, though episodic at annual and intra-annual time scales, has experienced an increase over the last several decades. Increases in burned area and fire severity are not only releasing more carbon to the atmosphere, but likely shifting vegetation composition in the region towards greater deciduous dominance and a reduction in coniferous stands. While some recent studies have addressed qualitative differences between large and small fire years in the Alaskan boreal forest, the ecological effects of a greater proportion of burning occurring during large fire years and during late season fires have not yet been examined. Some characteristics of wildfires that can be detected remotely are related to fire severity and can provide new information on spatial and temporal patterns of burning. This analysis focused on boreal wildfire intensity (fire radiative power, or FRP) contained in the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) daily active fire product from 2003 to 2010. We found that differences in FRP resulted from seasonality and intra-annual variability in fire activity levels, vegetation composition, latitudinal variation, and fire spread behavior. Our studies determined two general categories of active fire detections: new detections associated with the spread of the fire front and residual pixels in areas that had already experienced front burning. Residual pixels had a lower average FRP than front pixels, but represented a high percentage of all pixels during periods of high fire activity (large fire years, late season burning, and seasonal periods of high fire activity). As a result, the FRP from periods of high fire activity was less intense than those from periods of low fire activity. Differences related to latitude were greater than expected, with higher latitudes burning later in the season and at a higher intensity than lower latitudes. Differences in vegetation type indicate that coniferous vegetation is the most fire prone, but deciduous vegetation is not particularly fire resistant, as the proportion of active fire detections in deciduous stands is roughly the same as the fraction of deciduous vegetation in the region. Qualitative differences between periods of high and low fire activity are likely to reflect important differences in fire severity. Large fire years are likely to be more severe, characterized by more late season fires and a greater proportion of residual burning. Given the potential for severe fires to effect changes in vegetation cover, the shift toward a greater proportion of area burning during large fire years may influence vegetation patterns in the region over the medium to long term.

Adsorbents for capturing mercury in coal-fired boiler flue gas.

PubMed

Yang, Hongqun; Xu, Zhenghe; Fan, Maohong; Bland, Alan E; Judkins, Roddie R

2007-07-19

This paper reviews recent advances in the research and development of sorbents used to capture mercury from coal-fired utility boiler flue gas. Mercury emissions are the source of serious health concerns. Worldwide mercury emissions from human activities are estimated to be 1000 to 6000 t/annum. Mercury emissions from coal-fired power plants are believed to be the largest source of anthropogenic mercury emissions. Mercury emissions from coal-fired utility boilers vary in total amount and speciation, depending on coal types, boiler operating conditions, and configurations of air pollution control devices (APCDs). The APCDs, such as fabric filter (FF) bag house, electrostatic precipitator (ESP), and wet flue gas desulfurization (FGD), can remove some particulate-bound and oxidized forms of mercury. Elemental mercury often escapes from these devices. Activated carbon injection upstream of a particulate control device has been shown to have the best potential to remove both elemental and oxidized mercury from the flue gas. For this paper, NORIT FGD activated carbon was extensively studied for its mercury adsorption behavior. Results from bench-, pilot- and field-scale studies, mercury adsorption by coal chars, and a case of lignite-burned mercury control were reviewed. Studies of brominated carbon, sulfur-impregnated carbon and chloride-impregnated carbon were also reviewed. Carbon substitutes, such as calcium sorbents, petroleum coke, zeolites and fly ash were analyzed for their mercury-adsorption performance. At this time, brominated activated carbon appears to be the best-performing mercury sorbent. A non-injection regenerable sorbent technology is briefly introduced herein, and the issue of mercury leachability is briefly covered. Future research directions are suggested.

Wildfire risk in the wildland-urban interface: A simulation study in northwestern Wisconsin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Massada, Avi Bar; Radeloff, Volker C.; Stewart, Susan I.; Hawbaker, Todd J.

2009-01-01

The rapid growth of housing in and near the wildland–urban interface (WUI) increases wildfirerisk to lives and structures. To reduce fire risk, it is necessary to identify WUI housing areas that are more susceptible to wildfire. This is challenging, because wildfire patterns depend on fire behavior and spread, which in turn depend on ignition locations, weather conditions, the spatial arrangement of fuels, and topography. The goal of our study was to assess wildfirerisk to a 60,000 ha WUI area in northwesternWisconsin while accounting for all of these factors. We conducted 6000 simulations with two dynamic fire models: Fire Area Simulator (FARSITE) and Minimum Travel Time (MTT) in order to map the spatial pattern of burn probabilities. Simulations were run under normal and extreme weather conditions to assess the effect of weather on fire spread, burn probability, and risk to structures. The resulting burn probability maps were intersected with maps of structure locations and land cover types. The simulations revealed clear hotspots of wildfire activity and a large range of wildfirerisk to structures in the study area. As expected, the extreme weather conditions yielded higher burn probabilities over the entire landscape, as well as to different land cover classes and individual structures. Moreover, the spatial pattern of risk was significantly different between extreme and normal weather conditions. The results highlight the fact that extreme weather conditions not only produce higher fire risk than normal weather conditions, but also change the fine-scale locations of high risk areas in the landscape, which is of great importance for fire management in WUI areas. In addition, the choice of weather data may limit the potential for comparisons of risk maps for different areas and for extrapolating risk maps to future scenarios where weather conditions are unknown. Our approach to modeling wildfirerisk to structures can aid fire risk reduction management activities by identifying areas with elevated wildfirerisk and those most vulnerable under extreme weather conditions.

Examination of motor unit control properties of the vastus lateralis in an individual that had acute paralytic poliomyelitis.

PubMed

Herda, Trent J; Cooper, Michael A

2014-08-01

The purpose of the study was to examine motor unit (MU) recruitment and derecruitment thresholds and firing rates of the vastus lateralis between 2 healthy (HE) individuals (women, ages = 19 and 23 years) and 1 individual (man, age = 22 years) who acquired acute poliomyelitis (PO). Each participant performed submaximal isometric trapezoid muscle actions of the leg extensors from 20% to 90% maximal voluntary contraction in 10% increments with a sensor placed on the vastus lateralis to record electromyography. Electromyographic signals were decomposed into the firing events of single MUs. Linear regressions were performed on the firing rates at recruitment and peak firing rates versus the recruitment thresholds and the derecruitment versus recruitment thresholds. In addition, data were pooled together from all contractions to examine differences between PO and HE with independent samples t-tests calculated for firing rates at recruitment, peak firing rates, recruitment thresholds, derecruitment thresholds, and duration of MU activity. The results demonstrated systematic differences in MU control strategies between the PO and HE. There were differences in the recruitment thresholds (P < 0.001; HE = 30.5% ± 22.2% maximal voluntary contraction; PO = 14.5% ± 5.0% maximal voluntary contraction), firing rates at recruitment (P < 0.001; HE = 7.4 ± 2.5 pulses per second; PO = 6.2 ± 1.7 pulses per second) and peak firing rates across the force spectrum (P = 0.001; HE = 22.2 ± 5.8 pulses per second; PO = 20.3 ± 2.3 pulses per second), altered derecruitment versus recruitment relationships (HE slope = 0.82 derec/rec, PO slope = 1.78 derec/rec), and duration of MU activity (P < 0.001) between the PO (18.6 ± 2.4 seconds) and HE (15.3 ± 3.0 seconds). Future research should examine the possible differences in MU behavior between PO and HE as a result of fatigue to further elucidate disease-related changes in MU properties.

Management of fire regime, fuels, and fire effects in southern California chaparral: lessons from the past and thoughts for the future

Treesearch

Susan G. Conard; David R. Weise

1998-01-01

Chaparral is an intermediate fire-return interval (FRI) system, which typically bums with high-intensity crown fires. Although it covers only perhaps 10% of the state of California, and smaller areas in neighboring states, its importance in terms of fire management is disproportionately large, primarily because it occurs in the wildland-urban interface through much of...

Climate change and vulnerability of bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus) in a fire-prone landscape.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Falke, Jeffrey A.; Flitcroft, Rebecca L; Dunham, Jason B.; McNyset, Kristina M.; Hessburg, Paul F.; Reeves, Gordon H.

2015-01-01

Linked atmospheric and wildfire changes will complicate future management of native coldwater fishes in fire-prone landscapes, and new approaches to management that incorporate uncertainty are needed to address this challenge. We used a Bayesian network (BN) approach to evaluate population vulnerability of bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus) in the Wenatchee River basin, Washington, USA, under current and future climate and fire scenarios. The BN was based on modeled estimates of wildfire, water temperature, and physical habitat prior to, and following, simulated fires throughout the basin. We found that bull trout population vulnerability depended on the extent to which climate effects can be at least partially offset by managing factors such as habitat connectivity and fire size. Moreover, our analysis showed that local management can significantly reduce the vulnerability of bull trout to climate change given appropriate management actions. Tools such as our BN that explicitly integrate the linked nature of climate and wildfire, and incorporate uncertainty in both input data and vulnerability estimates, will be vital in effective future management to conserve native coldwater fishes.

Fire in the Earth system.

PubMed

Bowman, David M J S; Balch, Jennifer K; Artaxo, Paulo; Bond, William J; Carlson, Jean M; Cochrane, Mark A; D'Antonio, Carla M; Defries, Ruth S; Doyle, John C; Harrison, Sandy P; Johnston, Fay H; Keeley, Jon E; Krawchuk, Meg A; Kull, Christian A; Marston, J Brad; Moritz, Max A; Prentice, I Colin; Roos, Christopher I; Scott, Andrew C; Swetnam, Thomas W; van der Werf, Guido R; Pyne, Stephen J

2009-04-24

Fire is a worldwide phenomenon that appears in the geological record soon after the appearance of terrestrial plants. Fire influences global ecosystem patterns and processes, including vegetation distribution and structure, the carbon cycle, and climate. Although humans and fire have always coexisted, our capacity to manage fire remains imperfect and may become more difficult in the future as climate change alters fire regimes. This risk is difficult to assess, however, because fires are still poorly represented in global models. Here, we discuss some of the most important issues involved in developing a better understanding of the role of fire in the Earth system.

Fire in the Earth system

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bowman, David M.J.S.; Balch, Jennifer; Artaxo, Paulo; Bond, William J.; Carlson, Jean M.; Cochrane, Mark A.; D'Antonio, Carla M.; DeFries, Ruth S.; Doyle, John C.; Harrison, Sandy P.; Johnston, Fay H.; Keeley, Jon E.; Krawchuk, Meg A.; Kull, Christian A.; Marston, J. Brad; Moritz, Max A.; Prentice, I. Colin; Roos, Christopher I.; Scott, Andrew C.; Swetnam, Thomas W.; van der Werf, Guido R.; Pyne, Stephen

2009-01-01

Fire is a worldwide phenomenon that appears in the geological record soon after the appearance of terrestrial plants. Fire influences global ecosystem patterns and processes, including vegetation distribution and structure, the carbon cycle, and climate. Although humans and fire have always coexisted, our capacity to manage fire remains imperfect and may become more difficult in the future as climate change alters fire regimes. This risk is difficult to assess, however, because fires are still poorly represented in global models. Here, we discuss some of the most important issues involved in developing a better understanding of the role of fire in the Earth system.

Space-Based Sensorweb Monitoring of Wildfires in Thailand

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chien, Steve; Doubleday, Joshua; Mclaren, David; Davies, Ashley; Tran, Daniel; Tanpipat, Veerachai; Akaakara, Siri; Ratanasuwan, Anuchit; Mandl, Daniel

2011-01-01

We describe efforts to apply sensorweb technologies to the monitoring of forest fires in Thailand. In this approach, satellite data and ground reports are assimilated to assess the current state of the forest system in terms of forest fire risk, active fires, and likely progression of fires and smoke plumes. This current and projected assessment can then be used to actively direct sensors and assets to best acquire further information. This process operates continually with new data updating models of fire activity leading to further sensing and updating of models. As the fire activity is tracked, products such as active fire maps, burn scar severity maps, and alerts are automatically delivered to relevant parties.We describe the current state of the Thailand Fire Sensorweb which utilizes the MODIS-based FIRMS system to track active fires and trigger Earth Observing One / Advanced Land Imager to acquire imagery and produce active fire maps, burn scar severity maps, and alerts. We describe ongoing work to integrate additional sensor sources and generate additional products.

Improving global fire carbon emissions estimates by combining moderate resolution burned area and active fire observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Randerson, J. T.; Chen, Y.; Giglio, L.; Rogers, B. M.; van der Werf, G.

2011-12-01

In several important biomes, including croplands and tropical forests, many small fires exist that have sizes that are well below the detection limit for the current generation of burned area products derived from moderate resolution spectroradiometers. These fires likely have important effects on greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions and regional air quality. Here we developed an approach for combining 1km thermal anomalies (active fires; MOD14A2) and 500m burned area observations (MCD64A1) to estimate the prevalence of these fires and their likely contribution to burned area and carbon emissions. We first estimated active fires within and outside of 500m burn scars in 0.5 degree grid cells during 2001-2010 for which MCD64A1 burned area observations were available. For these two sets of active fires we then examined mean fire radiative power (FRP) and changes in enhanced vegetation index (EVI) derived from 16-day intervals immediately before and after each active fire observation. To estimate the burned area associated with sub-500m fires, we first applied burned area to active fire ratios derived solely from within burned area perimeters to active fires outside of burn perimeters. In a second step, we further modified our sub-500m burned area estimates using EVI changes from active fires outside and within of burned areas (after subtracting EVI changes derived from control regions). We found that in northern and southern Africa savanna regions and in Central and South America dry forest regions, the number of active fires outside of MCD64A1 burned areas increased considerably towards the end of the fire season. EVI changes for active fires outside of burn perimeters were, on average, considerably smaller than EVI changes associated with active fires inside burn scars, providing evidence for burn scars that were substantially smaller than the 25 ha area of a single 500m pixel. FRP estimates also were lower for active fires outside of burn perimeters. In our analysis we quantified how including sub-500m burned area influenced global burned area, carbon emissions, and net ecosystem exchange (NEE) in different continental regions using the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED) biogeochemical model. We conclude by discussing validation needs using higher resolution visible and thermal imagery.

The global pyrogenic carbon cycle and its impact on the level of atmospheric CO2 over past and future centuries.

PubMed

Landry, Jean-Sébastien; Matthews, H Damon

2017-08-01

The incomplete combustion of vegetation and dead organic matter by landscape fires creates recalcitrant pyrogenic carbon (PyC), which could be consequential for the global carbon budget if changes in fire regime, climate, and atmospheric CO 2 were to substantially affect gains and losses of PyC on land and in oceans. Here, we included global PyC cycling in a coupled climate-carbon model to assess the role of PyC in historical and future simulations, accounting for uncertainties through five sets of parameter estimates. We obtained year-2000 global stocks of (Central estimate, likely uncertainty range in parentheses) 86 (11-154), 47 (2-64), and 1129 (90-5892) Pg C for terrestrial residual PyC (RPyC), marine dissolved PyC, and marine particulate PyC, respectively. PyC cycling decreased atmospheric CO 2 only slightly between 1751 and 2000 (by 0.8 Pg C for the Central estimate) as PyC-related fluxes changed little over the period. For 2000 to 2300, we combined Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 with stable or continuously increasing future fire frequencies. For the increasing future fire regime, the production of new RPyC generally outpaced the warming-induced accelerated loss of existing RPyC, so that PyC cycling decreased atmospheric CO 2 between 2000 and 2300 for most estimates (by 4-8 Pg C for Central). For the stable fire regime, however, PyC cycling usually increased atmospheric CO 2 (by 1-9 Pg C for Central), and only the most extreme choice of parameters maximizing PyC production and minimizing PyC decomposition led to atmospheric CO 2 decreases under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5 (by 5-8 Pg C). Our results suggest that PyC cycling will likely reduce the future increase in atmospheric CO 2 if landscape fires become much more frequent; however, in the absence of a substantial increase in fire frequency, PyC cycling might contribute to, rather than mitigate, the future increase in atmospheric CO 2 . © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Multiple remote sensing data sources to assess spatio-temporal patterns of fire incidence over Campos Amazônicos Savanna Vegetation Enclave (Brazilian Amazon).

PubMed

Alves, Daniel Borini; Pérez-Cabello, Fernando

2017-12-01

Fire activity plays an important role in the past, present and future of Earth system behavior. Monitoring and assessing spatial and temporal fire dynamics have a fundamental relevance in the understanding of ecological processes and the human impacts on different landscapes and multiple spatial scales. This work analyzes the spatio-temporal distribution of burned areas in one of the biggest savanna vegetation enclaves in the southern Brazilian Amazon, from 2000 to 2016, deriving information from multiple remote sensing data sources (Landsat and MODIS surface reflectance, TRMM pluviometry and Vegetation Continuous Field tree cover layers). A fire scars database with 30 m spatial resolution was generated using a Landsat time series. MODIS daily surface reflectance was used for accurate dating of the fire scars. TRMM pluviometry data were analyzed to dynamically establish time limits of the yearly dry season and burning periods. Burned area extent, frequency and recurrence were quantified comparing the results annually/seasonally. Additionally, Vegetation Continuous Field tree cover layers were used to analyze fire incidence over different types of tree cover domains. In the last seventeen years, 1.03millionha were burned within the study area, distributed across 1432 fire occurrences, highlighting 2005, 2010 and 2014 as the most affected years. Middle dry season fires represent 86.21% of the total burned areas and 32.05% of fire occurrences, affecting larger amount of higher density tree surfaces than other burning periods. The results provide new insights into the analysis of burned areas of the neotropical savannas, spatially and statistically reinforcing important aspects linked to the seasonality patterns of fire incidence in this landscape. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

32 CFR 644.523 - Restricting future of artillery and other ranges.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... ranges. Experience indicates that, on ranges where high explosive projectiles have been fired or dropped... 32 National Defense 4 2014-07-01 2013-07-01 true Restricting future of artillery and other ranges... concentration of fire, and the properties of these projectiles are such that many duds are deeply buried. Depth...

32 CFR 644.523 - Restricting future of artillery and other ranges.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... ranges. Experience indicates that, on ranges where high explosive projectiles have been fired or dropped... 32 National Defense 4 2012-07-01 2011-07-01 true Restricting future of artillery and other ranges... concentration of fire, and the properties of these projectiles are such that many duds are deeply buried. Depth...

32 CFR 644.523 - Restricting future of artillery and other ranges.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... ranges. Experience indicates that, on ranges where high explosive projectiles have been fired or dropped... 32 National Defense 4 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Restricting future of artillery and other ranges... concentration of fire, and the properties of these projectiles are such that many duds are deeply buried. Depth...

Protocol and the post-human performativity of security techniques.

PubMed

O'Grady, Nathaniel

2016-07-01

This article explores the deployment of exercises by the United Kingdom Fire and Rescue Service. Exercises stage, simulate and act out potential future emergencies and in so doing help the Fire and Rescue Service prepare for future emergencies. Specifically, exercises operate to assess and develop protocol; sets of guidelines which plan out the actions undertaken by the Fire and Rescue Service in responding to a fire. In the article I outline and assess the forms of knowledge and technologies, what I call the 'aesthetic forces', by which the exercise makes present and imagines future emergencies. By critically engaging with Karen Barad's notion of post-human performativity, I argue that exercises provide a site where such forces can entangle with one another; creating a bricolage through which future emergencies are evoked sensually and representatively, ultimately making it possible to experience emergencies in the present. This understanding of exercises allows also for critical appraisal of protocol both as phenomena that are produced through the enmeshing of different aesthetic forces and as devices which premise the operation of the security apparatus on contingency.

Protocol and the post-human performativity of security techniques

PubMed Central

O’Grady, Nathaniel

2015-01-01

This article explores the deployment of exercises by the United Kingdom Fire and Rescue Service. Exercises stage, simulate and act out potential future emergencies and in so doing help the Fire and Rescue Service prepare for future emergencies. Specifically, exercises operate to assess and develop protocol; sets of guidelines which plan out the actions undertaken by the Fire and Rescue Service in responding to a fire. In the article I outline and assess the forms of knowledge and technologies, what I call the ‘aesthetic forces’, by which the exercise makes present and imagines future emergencies. By critically engaging with Karen Barad’s notion of post-human performativity, I argue that exercises provide a site where such forces can entangle with one another; creating a bricolage through which future emergencies are evoked sensually and representatively, ultimately making it possible to experience emergencies in the present. This understanding of exercises allows also for critical appraisal of protocol both as phenomena that are produced through the enmeshing of different aesthetic forces and as devices which premise the operation of the security apparatus on contingency. PMID:29708110

The footprint of Alaskan tundra fires during the past half-century: implications for surface properties and radiative forcing

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rocha, Adrian V.; Loranty, Michael M.; Higuera, Phil E.; Mack, Michelle C.; Hu, Feng Sheng; Jones, Benjamin M.; Breen, Amy L.; Rastetter, Edward B.; Goetz, Scott J.; Shaver, Gus R.

2012-01-01

Recent large and frequent fires above the Alaskan arctic circle have forced a reassessment of the ecological and climatological importance of fire in arctic tundra ecosystems. Here we provide a general overview of the occurrence, distribution, and ecological and climate implications of Alaskan tundra fires over the past half-century using spatially explicit climate, fire, vegetation and remote sensing datasets for Alaska. Our analyses highlight the importance of vegetation biomass and environmental conditions in regulating tundra burning, and demonstrate that most tundra ecosystems are susceptible to burn, providing the environmental conditions are right. Over the past two decades, fire perimeters above the arctic circle have increased in size and importance, especially on the North Slope, indicating that future wildfire projections should account for fire regime changes in these regions. Remote sensing data and a literature review of thaw depths indicate that tundra fires have both positive and negative implications for climatic feedbacks including a decadal increase in albedo radiative forcing immediately after a fire, a stimulation of surface greenness and a persistent long-term (>10 year) increase in thaw depth. In order to address the future impact of tundra fires on climate, a better understanding of the control of tundra fire occurrence as well as the long-term impacts on ecosystem carbon cycling will be required.

Vegetation Fires in the Coupled Human-Earth System Under Future Environmental and Policy Perspectives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

le page, Y.; Morton, D. C.; Hurtt, G. C.

2013-12-01

Fires play a major role in terrestrial ecosystems dynamics and the carbon cycle. Potential changes in fire regimes due to climate change, land use change, or human management could have substantial ecological, climatic and socio-economic impacts, and have recently been emphasized as a source of uncertainty for policy-makers and climate mitigation cost estimates. Anticipating these interactions thus entails interdisciplinary models. Here we describe the development of a new fire modeling framework, which features the essential integration of climatic, vegetation and anthropogenic drivers. The model is an attempt to realistically account for ignition, spread and termination processes, on a 12-hour time step and at 1 degree spatial resolution globally. Because the quantitative influence of fire drivers on these processes are often poorly constrained, the framework includes an optimization procedure whereby key parameters (e.g. influence of moisture on fire spread, probability of cloud-to-ground lightning flashes to actually ignite a fire, human ignition frequency as a function of land use density) are determined to maximize the agreement between modeled and observed burned area over the past decade. The model performs surprisingly well across all biomes, and shows good agreement on non-optimized features, such as seasonality and fire size, which suggests some potential for robust projections. We couple the model to an integrated assessment model and explore the consequences of mitigation policies, land use decisions and climate change on future fire regimes with a focus on the Amazon basin. The coupled model future projections show that business-as-usual land use expansion would increase the frequency of escaped fires in the remaining forest, especially when combined with models projecting a drier climate. Inversely, climate mitigation policies as projected in the IPCC RCP4.5 scenario achieve synergistic benefits, with increased forest extent, less fire ignitions, and higher moisture levels.

Silvicultural activities in Pringle Falls Experimental Forest, Central Oregon

Treesearch

Andrew Youngblood; Kim Johnson; Jim Schlaich; Boyd Wickman

2004-01-01

Pringle Falls Experimental Forest has been a center for research in ponderosa pine forests east of the crest of the Cascade Range since 1931. Long-term research facilities, sites, and future research opportunities are currently at risk from stand-replacement wildfire because of changes in stand structure resulting from past fire exclusion. At the same time, many of the...

2015 Indonesian fire activity and smoke pollution show persistent non-linear sensitivity to El Niño-induced drought

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Field, R. D.; van der Werf, G.; Fanin, T.; Fetzer, E. J.; Fuller, R. A.; Jethva, H. T.; Levy, R. C.; Livesey, N. J.; Luo, M.; Torres, O.; Worden, H. M.

2016-12-01

The 2015 fire season and related smoke pollution in Indonesia was more severe than the major 2006 episode, making it the most severe season observed by the NASA Earth Observing System satellites that go back to the early 2000s, namely active fire detections from the Terra and Aqua Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometers (MODIS), MODIS aerosol optical depth, Terra Measurement of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT) carbon monoxide (CO), Aqua Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) CO, Aura Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) aerosol index, and Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) CO. The MLS CO in the upper troposphere showed a plume of pollution stretching from East Africa to the western Pacific Ocean that persisted for two months. Longer-term records of airport visibility in Sumatra and Kalimantan show that 2015 ranked after 1997 and alongside 1991 and 1994 as among the worst episodes on record. Analysis of yearly dry season rainfall from the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) and rain gauges shows that, due to the continued use of fire to clear and prepare land on degraded peat, the Indonesian fire environment continues to have non-linear sensitivity to dry conditions during prolonged periods with less than 4mm/day of precipitation, and this sensitivity appears to have increased over Kalimantan. Without significant reforms in land use and the adoption of early warning triggers tied to precipitation forecasts, these intense fire episodes will re-occur during future droughts, usually associated with El Niño events. Characterization of this signifcant event was only possible with EOS data, from the A-train instruments especially.

Understanding the effects of fire management practices on forest health: Implications for weeds and vegetation structure (Project INT-F-04-01) [Chapter 14

Treesearch

Anne E. Black; Peter Landres

2011-01-01

Current fire policy to restore ecosystem function and resiliency and reduce buildup of hazardous fuels implies a larger future role for fire (both natural and human ignitions) (USDA and USDOI 2000). Yet some fire management (such as building fire line, spike camps, or heli-spots) potentially causes both short- and long-term impacts to forest health. In the short run,...

Modelling the role of fires in the terrestrial carbon balance by incorporating SPITFIRE into the global vegetation modelORCHIDEE - Part 1: Simulating historical global burned area and fire regimes

Treesearch

C. Yue; P. Ciais; P. Cadule; K. Thonicke; S. Archibald; B. Poulter; W. M. Hao; S. Hantson; F. Mouillot; P. Friedlingstein; F. Maignan; N. Viovy

2014-01-01

Fire is an important global ecological process that influences the distribution of biomes, with consequences for carbon, water, and energy budgets. Therefore it is impossible to appropriately model the history and future of the terrestrial ecosystems and the climate system without including fire. This study incorporates the process-based prognostic fire module SPITFIRE...

How the science of injury prevention contributes to advancing home fire safety in the USA: successes and opportunities.

PubMed

Gielen, Andrea C; Frattaroli, Shannon; Pollack, Keshia M; Peek-Asa, Corinne; Yang, Jingzhen G

2018-06-01

In the decades since the landmark report-America Burning-was published in 1973, the number of home fire deaths has shrunk from >5500 per year to 2650 in 2015. This paper: (1) describes how science and practice in injury prevention and fire and life safety contributed to successful interventions, and (2) identifies emerging strategies and future opportunities to prevent home fire-related deaths. The aims are addressed through the lens of population health research, with a focus on the work of selected Centers for Disease Control and Prevention-funded Injury Control Research Centers. Results are organised using the Haddon Matrix and an ecological model. We found evidence to support interventions that address all components of both the matrix and the model, including: reduced ignition propensity cigarettes, stop smoking campaigns, housing codes, residential sprinkler systems, smoke alarms, community risk reduction, school-based educational programmes, and fire and burn response systems. Future reductions are likely to come from enhancing residential sprinkler and smoke alarm technology, and increasing their utilisation; expanding the use of community risk reduction methods; and implementing new technological solutions. Despite the successes, substantial disparities in home fire death rates remain, reflecting underlying social determinants of health. Most of the evidence-supported interventions were focused on changing the policy and community environments to prevent home fires and reduce injury when a fire occurs. Future prevention efforts should give high priority to addressing the continued disparities in home fire deaths. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Active Fire Mapping Program

MedlinePlus

Active Fire Mapping Program Current Large Incidents (Home) New Large Incidents Fire Detection Maps MODIS Satellite Imagery VIIRS Satellite Imagery Fire Detection GIS Data Fire Data in Google Earth ...

Rocket-triggered lightning strikes and forest fire ignition

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fenner, James H.

1989-01-01

Background information on the rocket-triggered lightning project at Kennedy Space Center (KSC), a summary of the forecasting problem there, the facilities and equipment available for undertaking field experiments at KSC, previous research activity performed, a description of the atmospheric science field laboratory near Mosquito Lagoon on the KSC complex, methods of data acquisition, and present results are discussed. New sources of data for the 1989 field experiment include measuring the electric field in the lower few thousand feet of the atmosphere by suspending field measuring devices below a tethered balloon. Problems encountered during the 1989 field experiment are discussed. Future prospects for both triggered lightning and lightning-kindled forest fire research at KSC are listed.

Increased Wildfire Risk Driven by Climate and Development Interactions in the Bolivian Chiquitania, Southern Amazonia.

PubMed

Devisscher, Tahia; Anderson, Liana O; Aragão, Luiz E O C; Galván, Luis; Malhi, Yadvinder

2016-01-01

Wildfires are becoming increasingly dominant in tropical landscapes due to reinforcing feedbacks between land cover change and more severe dry conditions. This study focused on the Bolivian Chiquitania, a region located at the southern edge of Amazonia. The extensive, unique and well-conserved tropical dry forest in this region is susceptible to wildfires due to a marked seasonality. We used a novel approach to assess fire risk at the regional level driven by different development trajectories interacting with changing climatic conditions. Possible future risk scenarios were simulated using maximum entropy modelling with presence-only data, combining land cover, anthropogenic and climatic variables. We found that important determinants of fire risk in the region are distance to roads, recent deforestation and density of human settlements. Severely dry conditions alone increased the area of high fire risk by 69%, affecting all categories of land use and land cover. Interactions between extreme dry conditions and rapid frontier expansion further increased fire risk, resulting in potential biomass loss of 2.44±0.8 Tg in high risk area, about 1.8 times higher than the estimates for the 2010 drought. These interactions showed particularly high fire risk in land used for 'extensive cattle ranching', 'agro-silvopastoral use' and 'intensive cattle ranching and agriculture'. These findings have serious implications for subsistence activities and the economy in the Chiquitania, which greatly depend on the forestry, agriculture and livestock sectors. Results are particularly concerning if considering the current development policies promoting frontier expansion. Departmental protected areas inhibited wildfires when strategically established in areas of high risk, even under drought conditions. However, further research is needed to assess their effectiveness accounting for more specific contextual factors. This novel and simple modelling approach can inform fire and land management decisions in the Chiquitania and other tropical forest landscapes to better anticipate and manage large wildfires in the future.

Increased Wildfire Risk Driven by Climate and Development Interactions in the Bolivian Chiquitania, Southern Amazonia

PubMed Central

Devisscher, Tahia; Anderson, Liana O.; Aragão, Luiz E. O. C.; Galván, Luis; Malhi, Yadvinder

2016-01-01

Wildfires are becoming increasingly dominant in tropical landscapes due to reinforcing feedbacks between land cover change and more severe dry conditions. This study focused on the Bolivian Chiquitania, a region located at the southern edge of Amazonia. The extensive, unique and well-conserved tropical dry forest in this region is susceptible to wildfires due to a marked seasonality. We used a novel approach to assess fire risk at the regional level driven by different development trajectories interacting with changing climatic conditions. Possible future risk scenarios were simulated using maximum entropy modelling with presence-only data, combining land cover, anthropogenic and climatic variables. We found that important determinants of fire risk in the region are distance to roads, recent deforestation and density of human settlements. Severely dry conditions alone increased the area of high fire risk by 69%, affecting all categories of land use and land cover. Interactions between extreme dry conditions and rapid frontier expansion further increased fire risk, resulting in potential biomass loss of 2.44±0.8 Tg in high risk area, about 1.8 times higher than the estimates for the 2010 drought. These interactions showed particularly high fire risk in land used for ‘extensive cattle ranching’, ‘agro-silvopastoral use’ and ‘intensive cattle ranching and agriculture’. These findings have serious implications for subsistence activities and the economy in the Chiquitania, which greatly depend on the forestry, agriculture and livestock sectors. Results are particularly concerning if considering the current development policies promoting frontier expansion. Departmental protected areas inhibited wildfires when strategically established in areas of high risk, even under drought conditions. However, further research is needed to assess their effectiveness accounting for more specific contextual factors. This novel and simple modelling approach can inform fire and land management decisions in the Chiquitania and other tropical forest landscapes to better anticipate and manage large wildfires in the future. PMID:27632528

Implementation of the fire and fire surrogate study— a national research effort to evaluate the consequences of fuel reduction treatments

Treesearch

Andrew Youngblood; Kerry L. Metlen; Eric E. Knapp; Kenneth W. Outcalt; Scott L. Stephens; Thomas A. Waldrop; Daniel Yaussy

2005-01-01

Many fire-dependent forests today are denser, contain fewer large trees, have higher fuel loads, and greater fuel continuity than occurred under historical fire regimes. These conditions increase the probability of unnaturally severe wildfires. Silviculturists are increasingly being asked to design fuel reduction treatments to help protect existing and future forest...

Allocating resources to large wildland fires: a model with stochastic production rates

Treesearch

Romain Mees; David Strauss

1992-01-01

Wildland fires that grow out of the initial attack phase are responsible for most of the damage and burned area. We model the allocation of fire suppression resources (ground crews, engines, bulldozers, and airdrops) to these large fires. The fireline at a given future time is partitioned into homogeneous segments on the basis of fuel type, available resources, risk,...

Fire behavior associated with the 1994 South Canyon fire on Storm King Mountain, Colorado

Treesearch

Bret W. Butler; Roberta A. Bartlette; Larry S. Bradshaw; Jack D. Cohen; Patricia L. Andrews; Ted Putnam; Richard J. Mangan

1998-01-01

In the aftermath of the deaths of 14 firefighters during the South Canyon Fire in July 1994, fire scientists assessed what occurred and suggested guidelines that may help firefighters avert such a tragedy in the future. This report describes the fuel, weather, and topographical factors that caused the transition from a relatively slow-spreading, low-intensity surface...

An Opinion on the Nitrate Film Fire, Suitland, Maryland, 7 December 1978.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Utterback, W. H., Jr.

1980-01-01

Examines the storage conditions and the circumstances surrounding the film storage facility fire in Suitland, Maryland, which destroyed over 13 million feet of film. Outlines possible causes for the fire and offers recommendations for prevention of such future disasters. (JMF)

What is a natural wildfire regime in the Mediterranean? A comparison of Holocene and Eemian fire history at Ioannina, Greece

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lawson, Ian; Venevsky, Sergey; Sitch, Stephen; Tzedakis, Pc; Roucoux, Kh; Frogley, Mr

2010-05-01

Wildfire is an important element of the Earth system, responsible to a large extent for determining vegetation structure, contributing to global carbon cycling, and destructive of human life and property. Understanding wildfire behaviour can help us to predict how fire regimes are likely to change in future and to devise appropriate management strategies. One challenge in studying wildfire is to unpick the relative importance of human activity as a factor; in many densely-populated areas of the world, such as the Mediterranean, the majority of vegetation fires are thought to be started accidentally or deliberately by people. This makes it difficult to establish whether the fire frequency and/or intensity experienced today are unusual, in historical terms; whether ecosystems are in equilibrium with modern fire regimes, or are in the process of adjusting to them; and it makes it difficult to determine what an "appropriate" level of burning should be, given that complete elimination of fire is likely in the long run to be detrimental to plant communities that have evolved in environments where burning occurred naturally. Here we present new data from a lake sediment sequence from Lake Ioannina in NW Greece. The sequence contains varying amounts of charcoal, which can be interpreted as a proxy for the intensity and/or frequency of burning in the lake's catchment. Sub-fossil pollen allow us to reconstruct past vegetation communities, and stable isotope data provide some indication of local variations in past climate, supplemented by regional syntheses of other palaeoclimatic data and results of climate modelling experiments. The sediment sequence spans several interglacial-glacial cycles. Here we compare the charcoal, pollen and stable isotope records of the present interglacial, the Holocene, with the last interglacial, the Eemian. Although there are some known climatic differences between the two periods, the overwhelming difference between them is that hominin activity is thought to have been much more limited during the Eemian: the archaeological record from Greece before c. 40,000 years ago is exceedingly sparse, suggesting very little human activity. We argue therefore that the Eemian record can be used to give a reasonably good indication of what modern vegetation and fire conditions might be like without human influence. A detailed interpretation of the interaction between climate, vegetation and fire regime, informed by insights from the fire modules of the LPJ dynamic global vegetation model, provides further assessment of the main controls on Mediterranean fire regimes both with and without significant human influence.

Exploring the sensitivity of soil carbon dynamics to climate change, fire disturbance and permafrost thaw in a black spruce ecosystem

USGS Publications Warehouse

O'Donnell, J. A.; Harden, J.W.; McGuire, A.D.; Romanovsky, V.E.

2011-01-01

In the boreal region, soil organic carbon (OC) dynamics are strongly governed by the interaction between wildfire and permafrost. Using a combination of field measurements, numerical modeling of soil thermal dynamics, and mass-balance modeling of OC dynamics, we tested the sensitivity of soil OC storage to a suite of individual climate factors (air temperature, soil moisture, and snow depth) and fire severity. We also conducted sensitivity analyses to explore the combined effects of fire-soil moisture interactions and snow seasonality on OC storage. OC losses were calculated as the difference in OC stocks after three fire cycles (???500 yr) following a prescribed step-change in climate and/or fire. Across single-factor scenarios, our findings indicate that warmer air temperatures resulted in the largest relative soil OC losses (???5.3 kg C mg-2), whereas dry soil conditions alone (in the absence of wildfire) resulted in the smallest carbon losses (???0.1 kg C mg-2). Increased fire severity resulted in carbon loss of ???3.3 kg C mg-2, whereas changes in snow depth resulted in smaller OC losses (2.1-2.2 kg C mg-2). Across multiple climate factors, we observed larger OC losses than for single-factor scenarios. For instance, high fire severity regime associated with warmer and drier conditions resulted in OC losses of ???6.1 kg C mg-2, whereas a low fire severity regime associated with warmer and wetter conditions resulted in OC losses of ???5.6 kg C mg-2. A longer snow-free season associated with future warming resulted in OC losses of ???5.4 kg C mg-2. Soil climate was the dominant control on soil OC loss, governing the sensitivity of microbial decomposers to fluctuations in temperature and soil moisture; this control, in turn, is governed by interannual changes in active layer depth. Transitional responses of the active layer depth to fire regimes also contributed to OC losses, primarily by determining the proportion of OC into frozen and unfrozen soil layers. ?? 2011 Author(s).

Assessing Potential Future Carbon Dynamics with Climate Change and Fire Management in a Mountainous Landscape on the Olympic Peninsula, Washington, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kennedy, R. S.

2010-12-01

Forests of the mountainous landscapes of the maritime Pacific Northwestern USA may have high carbon sequestration potential via their high productivity and moderate to infrequent fire regimes. With climate change, there may be shifts in incidence and severity of fire, especially in the drier areas of the region, via changes to forest productivity and hydrology, and consequent effects to C sequestration and forest structure. To explore this issue, I assessed potential effects of fire management (little fire suppression/wildland fire management/highly effective fire suppression) under two climate change scenarios on future C sequestration dynamics (amounts and spatial pattern) in Olympic National Park, WA, over a 500-year simulation period. I used the simulation platform FireBGCv2, which contains a mechanistic, individual tree succession model, a spatially explicit climate-based biophysical model that uses daily weather data, and a spatially explicit fire model incorporating ignition, spread, and effects on ecosystem components. C sequestration patterns varied over time and spatial and temporal patterns differed somewhat depending on the climate change scenario applied and the fire management methods employed. Under the more extreme climate change scenario with little fire suppression, fires were most frequent and severe and C sequestration decreased. General trends were similar under the more moderate climate change scenario, as compared to current climate, but spatial patterns differed. Both climate change scenarios under highly effective fire suppression showed about 50% of starting total C after the initial transition phase, whereas with 10% fire suppression both scenarios exhibited about 10% of starting amounts. Areas of the landscape that served as refugia for older forest under increasing frequency of high severity fire were also hotspots for C sequestration in a landscape experiencing increasing frequency of disturbance with climate change.

Modeling the Effects of Drought, Fire, Beetles, and Management on Future Carbon Cycling in the Western US

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buotte, P.; Law, B. E.; Hicke, J. A.; Hudiburg, T. W.; Levis, S.; Kent, J.

2017-12-01

Fire and beetle outbreaks can have substantial impacts on forest structure, composition, and function and these types of disturbances are expected to increase in the future. Therefore understanding the ecological impacts of these disturbances into the future is important. We used ecosystem process modeling to estimate the future occurrence of fire and beetle outbreaks and their impacts on forest resilience and carbon sequestration. We modified the Community Land Model (CLM4.5) to better represent forest growth and mortality in the western US through multiple avenues: 1) we increased the ecological resolution to recognize 14 forest types common to the region; 2) we improved CLM4.5's ability to handle drought stress by adding forest type-specific controls on stomatal conductance and increased rates of leaf shed during periods of low soil moisture; 3) we developed and implemented a mechanistic model of beetle population growth and subsequent tree mortality; 4) we modified the current fire module to account for more refined forest types; and 5) we developed multiple scenarios of harvest based on past harvest rates and proposed changes in land management policies. We ran CLM4.5 in offline mode with climate forcing data. We compare future forest growth rates and carbon sequestration with historical metrics to estimate the combined influence of future disturbances on forest composition and carbon sequestration in the western US.

Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory Wildland Fire Management Environmental Assessment - April 2003

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Irving, J.S.

DOE prepared an environmental assessment (EA)for wildland fire management activities on the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (INEEL) (DOE/EA-1372). The EA was developed to evaluate wildland fire management options for pre-fire, fire suppression, and post fire activities. Those activities have an important role in minimizing the conversion of the native sagebrush steppe ecosystem found on the INEEL to non-native weeds. Four alternative management approaches were analyzed: Alternative 1 - maximum fire protection; Alternative 2 - balanced fire protection; Alternative 2 - balanced fire protection; Alternative 3 - protect infrastructure and personnel; and Alternative 4 - no action/traditional fire protection.

Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory Wildland Fire Management Environmental Assessment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Irving, John S

DOE prepared an environmental assessment (EA)for wildland fire management activities on the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (INEEL) (DOE/EA-1372). The EA was developed to evaluate wildland fire management options for pre-fire, fire suppression, and post fire activities. Those activities have an important role in minimizing the conversion of the native sagebrush steppe ecosystem found on the INEEL to non-native weeds. Four alternative management approaches were analyzed: Alternative 1 - maximum fire protection; Alternative 2 - balanced fire protection; Alternative 2 - balanced fire protection; Alternative 3 - protect infrastructure and personnel; and Alternative 4 - no action/traditional fire protection.

Temperate and boreal forest mega-fires: characteristics and challenges

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stephens, Scott L.; Burrows, Neil; Buyantuyev, Alexander; Gray, Robert W.; Keane, Robert E.; Kubian, Rick; Liu, Shirong; Seijo, Francisco; Shu, Lifu; Tolhurst, Kevin G.; Van Wagtendonk, Jan W.

2014-01-01

Mega-fires are often defined according to their size and intensity but are more accurately described by their socioeconomic impacts. Three factors – climate change, fire exclusion, and antecedent disturbance, collectively referred to as the “mega-fire triangle” – likely contribute to today's mega-fires. Some characteristics of mega-fires may emulate historical fire regimes and can therefore sustain healthy fire-prone ecosystems, but other attributes decrease ecosystem resiliency. A good example of a program that seeks to mitigate mega-fires is located in Western Australia, where prescribed burning reduces wildfire intensity while conserving ecosystems. Crown-fire-adapted ecosystems are likely at higher risk of frequent mega-fires as a result of climate change, as compared with other ecosystems once subject to frequent less severe fires. Fire and forest managers should recognize that mega-fires will be a part of future wildland fire regimes and should develop strategies to reduce their undesired impacts.

Understanding fire drivers and relative impacts in different Chinese forest ecosystems.

PubMed

Guo, Futao; Su, Zhangwen; Wang, Guangyu; Sun, Long; Tigabu, Mulualem; Yang, Xiajie; Hu, Haiqing

2017-12-15

In this study, spatial patterns and driving factors of fires were identified from 2000 to 2010 using Ripley's K (d) function and logistic regression (LR) model in two different forest ecosystems of China: the boreal forest (Daxing'an Mountains) and sub-tropical forest (Fujian province). Relative effects of each driving factor on fire occurrence were identified based on standardized coefficients in the LR model. Results revealed that fires were spatially clustered and that fire drivers vary amongst differing forest ecosystems in China. Fires in the Daxing'an Mountains respond primarily to human factors, of which infrastructure is recognized as the most influential. In contrast, climate factors played a critical role in fire occurrence in Fujian, of which the temperature of fire season was found to be of greater importance than other climate factors. Selected factors can predict nearly 80% of the total fire occurrence in the Daxing'an Mountains and 66% in Fujian, wherein human and climate factors contributed the greatest impact in the two study areas, respectively. This study suggests that different fire prevention and management strategies are required in the areas of study, as significant variations of the main fire-driving exist. Rapid socio-economic development has produced similar effects in different forest ecosystems within China, implying a strong correlation between socio-economic development and fire regimes. It can be concluded that the influence of human factors will increase in the future as China's economy continues to grow - an issue of concern that should be further addressed in future national fire management. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Identification of two distinct fire regimes in Southern California: implications for economic impact and future change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jin, Yufang; Goulden, Michael L.; Faivre, Nicolas; Veraverbeke, Sander; Sun, Fengpeng; Hall, Alex; Hand, Michael S.; Hook, Simon; Randerson, James T.

2015-09-01

The area burned by Southern California wildfires has increased in recent decades, with implications for human health, infrastructure, and ecosystem management. Meteorology and fuel structure are universally recognized controllers of wildfire, but their relative importance, and hence the efficacy of abatement and suppression efforts, remains controversial. Southern California’s wildfires can be partitioned by meteorology: fires typically occur either during Santa Ana winds (SA fires) in October through April, or warm and dry periods in June through September (non-SA fires). Previous work has not quantitatively distinguished between these fire regimes when assessing economic impacts or climate change influence. Here we separate five decades of fire perimeters into those coinciding with and without SA winds. The two fire types contributed almost equally to burned area, yet SA fires were responsible for 80% of cumulative 1990-2009 economic losses (3.1 Billion). The damage disparity was driven by fire characteristics: SA fires spread three times faster, occurred closer to urban areas, and burned into areas with greater housing values. Non-SA fires were comparatively more sensitive to age-dependent fuels, often occurred in higher elevation forests, lasted for extended periods, and accounted for 70% of total suppression costs. An improved distinction of fire type has implications for future projections and management. The area burned in non-SA fires is projected to increase 77% (±43%) by the mid-21st century with warmer and drier summers, and the SA area burned is projected to increase 64% (±76%), underscoring the need to evaluate the allocation and effectiveness of suppression investments.

Management Impacts on Carbon Dynamics in a Sierra Nevada Mixed Conifer Forest

PubMed Central

Dore, Sabina; Fry, Danny L.; Collins, Brandon M.; Vargas, Rodrigo; York, Robert A.; Stephens, Scott L.

2016-01-01

Forest ecosystems can act as sinks of carbon and thus mitigate anthropogenic carbon emissions. When forests are actively managed, treatments can alter forests carbon dynamics, reducing their sink strength and switching them from sinks to sources of carbon. These effects are generally characterized by fast temporal dynamics. Hence this study monitored for over a decade the impacts of management practices commonly used to reduce fire hazards on the carbon dynamics of mixed-conifer forests in the Sierra Nevada, California, USA. Soil CO2 efflux, carbon pools (i.e. soil carbon, litter, fine roots, tree biomass), and radial tree growth were compared among un-manipulated controls, prescribed fire, thinning, thinning followed by fire, and two clear-cut harvested sites. Soil CO2 efflux was reduced by both fire and harvesting (ca. 15%). Soil carbon content (upper 15 cm) was not significantly changed by harvest or fire treatments. Fine root biomass was reduced by clear-cut harvest (60–70%) but not by fire, and the litter layer was reduced 80% by clear-cut harvest and 40% by fire. Thinning effects on tree growth and biomass were concentrated in the first year after treatments, whereas fire effects persisted over the seven-year post-treatment period. Over this period, tree radial growth was increased (25%) by thinning and reduced (12%) by fire. After seven years, tree biomass returned to pre-treatment levels in both fire and thinning treatments; however, biomass and productivity decreased 30%-40% compared to controls when thinning was combined with fire. The clear-cut treatment had the strongest impact, reducing ecosystem carbon stocks and delaying the capacity for carbon uptake. We conclude that post-treatment carbon dynamics and ecosystem recovery time varied with intensity and type of treatments. Consequently, management practices can be selected to minimize ecosystem carbon losses while increasing future carbon uptake, resilience to high severity fire, and climate related stresses. PMID:26918460

Fire suppression in human-crew spacecraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Friedman, Robert; Dietrich, Daniel L.

1991-01-01

Fire extinguishment agents range from water and foam in early-design spacecraft (Halon 1301 in the present Shuttle) to carbon dioxide proposed for the Space Station Freedom. The major challenge to spacecraft fire extinguishment design and operations is from the micro-gravity environment, which minimizes natural convection and profoundly influences combustion and extinguishing agent effectiveness, dispersal, and post-fire cleanup. Discussed here are extinguishment in microgravity, fire-suppression problems anticipated in future spacecraft, and research needs and opportunities.

Fire and ecosystem change in the Arctic across the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Denis, E. H.; Pedentchouk, N.; Schouten, S.; Pagani, M.; Freeman, K. H.

2016-12-01

Fire, an important component of ecosystems at a range of spatial and temporal scales, affects vegetation distribution, the carbon cycle, and climate. In turn, climate influences fuel composition (e.g., amount and type of vegetation), fuel availability (e.g., vegetation that can burn based on precipitation and temperature), and ignition sources (e.g., lightning). Climate studies predict increased wildfire activity in future decades, but mechanisms that control the relationship between climate and fire are complex. Reconstructing environmental conditions during past warming events (e.g., the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM)) will help elucidate climate-vegetation-fire relationships that are expressed over long durations (1,000 - 10,000 yrs). The abrupt global warming during the PETM dramatically altered vegetation and hydrologic patterns, and, possibly, fire occurrence. To investigate coincident changes in climate, vegetation, and fire occurrence, we studied biomarkers, including polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), terpenoids, and alkanes from the PETM interval at IODP site 302 (the Lomonosov Ridge) in the Arctic Ocean. Both pollen and biomarker records indicate angiosperms abundance increased during the PETM relative to gymnosperms, reflecting a significant ecological shift to angiosperm-dominated vegetation. PAH abundances increased relative to plant biomarkers throughout the PETM, which suggests PAH production increased relative to plant productivity. Increased PAH production associated with the angiosperm vegetation shift indicates a greater prevalence of more fire-prone species. A time lag between increased moisture transport (based on published δD of n-alkanes data) to the Arctic and increased angiosperms and PAH production suggests wetter conditions, followed by increased air temperatures, favored angiosperms and combined to enhance fire occurrence.

Adapt to more wildfire in western North American forests as climate changes.

PubMed

Schoennagel, Tania; Balch, Jennifer K; Brenkert-Smith, Hannah; Dennison, Philip E; Harvey, Brian J; Krawchuk, Meg A; Mietkiewicz, Nathan; Morgan, Penelope; Moritz, Max A; Rasker, Ray; Turner, Monica G; Whitlock, Cathy

2017-05-02

Wildfires across western North America have increased in number and size over the past three decades, and this trend will continue in response to further warming. As a consequence, the wildland-urban interface is projected to experience substantially higher risk of climate-driven fires in the coming decades. Although many plants, animals, and ecosystem services benefit from fire, it is unknown how ecosystems will respond to increased burning and warming. Policy and management have focused primarily on specified resilience approaches aimed at resistance to wildfire and restoration of areas burned by wildfire through fire suppression and fuels management. These strategies are inadequate to address a new era of western wildfires. In contrast, policies that promote adaptive resilience to wildfire, by which people and ecosystems adjust and reorganize in response to changing fire regimes to reduce future vulnerability, are needed. Key aspects of an adaptive resilience approach are ( i ) recognizing that fuels reduction cannot alter regional wildfire trends; ( ii ) targeting fuels reduction to increase adaptation by some ecosystems and residential communities to more frequent fire; ( iii ) actively managing more wild and prescribed fires with a range of severities; and ( iv ) incentivizing and planning residential development to withstand inevitable wildfire. These strategies represent a shift in policy and management from restoring ecosystems based on historical baselines to adapting to changing fire regimes and from unsustainable defense of the wildland-urban interface to developing fire-adapted communities. We propose an approach that accepts wildfire as an inevitable catalyst of change and that promotes adaptive responses by ecosystems and residential communities to more warming and wildfire.

Adapt to more wildfire in western North American forests as climate changes

PubMed Central

Schoennagel, Tania; Balch, Jennifer K.; Brenkert-Smith, Hannah; Harvey, Brian J.; Mietkiewicz, Nathan; Morgan, Penelope; Moritz, Max A.; Rasker, Ray; Turner, Monica G.; Whitlock, Cathy

2017-01-01

Wildfires across western North America have increased in number and size over the past three decades, and this trend will continue in response to further warming. As a consequence, the wildland–urban interface is projected to experience substantially higher risk of climate-driven fires in the coming decades. Although many plants, animals, and ecosystem services benefit from fire, it is unknown how ecosystems will respond to increased burning and warming. Policy and management have focused primarily on specified resilience approaches aimed at resistance to wildfire and restoration of areas burned by wildfire through fire suppression and fuels management. These strategies are inadequate to address a new era of western wildfires. In contrast, policies that promote adaptive resilience to wildfire, by which people and ecosystems adjust and reorganize in response to changing fire regimes to reduce future vulnerability, are needed. Key aspects of an adaptive resilience approach are (i) recognizing that fuels reduction cannot alter regional wildfire trends; (ii) targeting fuels reduction to increase adaptation by some ecosystems and residential communities to more frequent fire; (iii) actively managing more wild and prescribed fires with a range of severities; and (iv) incentivizing and planning residential development to withstand inevitable wildfire. These strategies represent a shift in policy and management from restoring ecosystems based on historical baselines to adapting to changing fire regimes and from unsustainable defense of the wildland–urban interface to developing fire-adapted communities. We propose an approach that accepts wildfire as an inevitable catalyst of change and that promotes adaptive responses by ecosystems and residential communities to more warming and wildfire. PMID:28416662

Impacts of fire on sources of soil CO2 efflux in a dry Amazon rain forest.

PubMed

Metcalfe, Daniel B; Rocha, Wanderley; Balch, Jennifer K; Brando, Paulo M; Doughty, Christopher E; Malhi, Yadvinder

2018-05-10

Fire at the dry southern margin of the Amazon rainforest could have major consequences for regional soil carbon (C) storage and ecosystem carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions, but relatively little information exists about impacts of fire on soil C cycling within this sensitive ecotone. We measured CO 2 effluxes from different soil components (ground surface litter, roots, mycorrhizae, soil organic matter) at a large-scale burn experiment designed to simulate a severe but realistic potential future scenario for the region (Fire plot) in Mato Grosso, Brazil, over one year, and compared these measurements to replicated data from a nearby, unmodified Control plot. After four burns over five years, soil CO 2 efflux (R s ) was ~ 5.5 t C ha -1 yr -1 lower on the Fire plot compared to the Control. Most of the Fire plot R s reduction was specifically due to lower ground surface litter and root respiration. Mycorrhizal respiration on both plots was around ~ 20% of R s . Soil surface temperature appeared to be more important than moisture as a driver of seasonal patterns in R s at the site. Regular fire events decreased the seasonality of R s at the study site, due to apparent differences in environmental sensitivities among biotic and abiotic soil components. These findings may contribute towards improved predictions of the amount and temporal pattern of C emissions across the large areas of tropical forest facing increasing fire disturbances associated with climate change and human activities. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Configuration of electro-optic fire source detection system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fabian, Ram Z.; Steiner, Zeev; Hofman, Nir

2007-04-01

The recent fighting activities in various parts of the world have highlighted the need for accurate fire source detection on one hand and fast "sensor to shooter cycle" capabilities on the other. Both needs can be met by the SPOTLITE system which dramatically enhances the capability to rapidly engage hostile fire source with a minimum of casualties to friendly force and to innocent bystanders. Modular system design enable to meet each customer specific requirements and enable excellent future growth and upgrade potential. The design and built of a fire source detection system is governed by sets of requirements issued by the operators. This can be translated into the following design criteria: I) Long range, fast and accurate fire source detection capability. II) Different threat detection and classification capability. III) Threat investigation capability. IV) Fire source data distribution capability (Location, direction, video image, voice). V) Men portability. ) In order to meet these design criteria, an optimized concept was presented and exercised for the SPOTLITE system. Three major modular components were defined: I) Electro Optical Unit -Including FLIR camera, CCD camera, Laser Range Finder and Marker II) Electronic Unit -including system computer and electronic. III) Controller Station Unit - Including the HMI of the system. This article discusses the system's components definition and optimization processes, and also show how SPOTLITE designers successfully managed to introduce excellent solutions for other system parameters.

Palaeodata-informed modelling of large carbon losses from recent burning of boreal forests

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kelly, Ryan; Genet, Helene; McGuire, A. David; Hu, Feng Sheng

2016-01-01

Wildfires play a key role in the boreal forest carbon cycle1, 2, and models suggest that accelerated burning will increase boreal C emissions in the coming century3. However, these predictions may be compromised because brief observational records provide limited constraints to model initial conditions4. We confronted this limitation by using palaeoenvironmental data to drive simulations of long-term C dynamics in the Alaskan boreal forest. Results show that fire was the dominant control on C cycling over the past millennium, with changes in fire frequency accounting for 84% of C stock variability. A recent rise in fire frequency inferred from the palaeorecord5 led to simulated C losses of 1.4 kg C m−2 (12% of ecosystem C stocks) from 1950 to 2006. In stark contrast, a small net C sink of 0.3 kg C m−2 occurred if the past fire regime was assumed to be similar to the modern regime, as is common in models of C dynamics. Although boreal fire regimes are heterogeneous, recent trends6 and future projections7 point to increasing fire activity in response to climate warming throughout the biome. Thus, predictions8 that terrestrial C sinks of northern high latitudes will mitigate rising atmospheric CO2 may be over-optimistic.

Regional estimation of current and future forest biomass

Treesearch

R.A. Mickler; T.S. Earnhardt; J.A. Moore

2002-01-01

The 90,674 wildland fires that burned 2.9 million ha at an estimated suppression cost of $1.6 billion in the United States during the 2000 fire season demonstrated that forest fuel loading has become a hazard to life, property, and ecosystem health as a result of past fire exclusion policies and practices. The fire regime at any given location in these regions is a...

Effects of Climate and Fuels Management on Wildfire Occurrence, Size, Severity and Emissions in the Sierra Nevada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Westerling, A. L.; Fites, J. A.; Keyser, A.

2015-12-01

Annual wildfire burned area in federally managed Sierra Nevada forests has increased by more than 10,000 ha per decade since the early 1970s. At the same time, recent years have seen some extremely large fires compared to the historical record, with significant areas of moderate to high severity fire (e.g., McNally 2002, Rim 2013, King 2014 fires). Changes to fuels and fire regimes due to fire suppression and land use, as well as warming temperatures and the occurrence of drought, are thought to be significant factors contributing to increased risks of large, severe fires in Sierra Nevada forests. Over 70% of the vegetated area in federally managed forests in the Sierra Nevada is classified as having altered fuels and fire regimes, while average annual temperature in the Sierra Nevada has been above the long term mean for all but four years in the past two decades. As climate is expected to continue warming for decades to come, we explored fuels management scenarios as the primary tools available to modify risks of large, severe wildfires. We developed experimental statistical models of fire occurrence, fire size, and high severity burned area, to explore the interaction between climate and altered fuels conditions. These models were applied to historical climate conditions, a sample of future climate projections, and to both current fuels conditions and a range of scenarios for fuels treatments. Emissions from wildfires were estimated using the Fire Inventory from the National Center for Atmospheric Research. Our models project that average annual burned area in the Sierra Nevada will more than double by mid-century. Similarly, particulate and other pollution emissions from Sierra Nevada wildfires are projected to more than double, even if future fire severity does not change. Fuels treatment scenarios significantly reduced simulated future burned area and emissions below untreated projections. High severity burned area responded to both climate and fuels treatments. A sensitivity analysis indicated that in areas where the fraction of highly altered fuels is high, successfully restoring fuels to prehistoric conditions could more than compensate for expected climate change effects on fire severity by mid-century.

Using unplanned fires to help suppressing future large fires in Mediterranean forests.

PubMed

Regos, Adrián; Aquilué, Núria; Retana, Javier; De Cáceres, Miquel; Brotons, Lluís

2014-01-01

Despite the huge resources invested in fire suppression, the impact of wildfires has considerably increased across the Mediterranean region since the second half of the 20th century. Modulating fire suppression efforts in mild weather conditions is an appealing but hotly-debated strategy to use unplanned fires and associated fuel reduction to create opportunities for suppression of large fires in future adverse weather conditions. Using a spatially-explicit fire-succession model developed for Catalonia (Spain), we assessed this opportunistic policy by using two fire suppression strategies that reproduce how firefighters in extreme weather conditions exploit previous fire scars as firefighting opportunities. We designed scenarios by combining different levels of fire suppression efficiency and climatic severity for a 50-year period (2000-2050). An opportunistic fire suppression policy induced large-scale changes in fire regimes and decreased the area burnt under extreme climate conditions, but only accounted for up to 18-22% of the area to be burnt in reference scenarios. The area suppressed in adverse years tended to increase in scenarios with increasing amounts of area burnt during years dominated by mild weather. Climate change had counterintuitive effects on opportunistic fire suppression strategies. Climate warming increased the incidence of large fires under uncontrolled conditions but also indirectly increased opportunities for enhanced fire suppression. Therefore, to shift fire suppression opportunities from adverse to mild years, we would require a disproportionately large amount of area burnt in mild years. We conclude that the strategic planning of fire suppression resources has the potential to become an important cost-effective fuel-reduction strategy at large spatial scale. We do however suggest that this strategy should probably be accompanied by other fuel-reduction treatments applied at broad scales if large-scale changes in fire regimes are to be achieved, especially in the wider context of climate change.

[Forest fire risk assessment for China under different climate scenarios.

PubMed

Tian, Xiao Rui; Dai, Xuan; Wang, Ming Yu; Zhao, Feng Jun; Shu, Li Fu

2016-03-01

Forest fire risk depends on the hazard factors, affected body, and hazard prevention and reduction ability. The integrated risk assessment is the foundation for developing scientific fire mana-gement policies and carrying out the forest fire prevention measures. A forest fire risk assessment model and index system were established based on the classic natural disaster risk model and available data, and the model was used to assess the forest fire risks in past and future. The future climate scenario data included outputs from five global climate models (GFDL-ESM2M, HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5A-LR, MIROC-ESM-CHEM and NorESM1-M) for RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5, respectively. Each component index of Fire Weather Index (FWI) system was calculated daily for each grid in 1987-2050 for the historical observations and future climate scenarios according to the maximum temperature, minimum relative humidity, wind speed and daily precipitation. The results showed that areas with high and very high fire danger ratings in 1987-2010 accounted for 21.2% and 6.2%, respectively, which were distributed in Greater Xing'an Mountains and the Changbai Mountain area, most parts of Yunnan, and many fragment areas in southern China. The areas with high and very high burn possibilities were mainly distributed in the northeast and southwest region, accounting for 13.1% and 4.0%, respectively. Compared with the observation period, the areas with high and very high fire danger ratings in 2021-2050 would increase by 0.6%, 5.5%, 2.3%, and 3.5% under RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, and RCP 8.5 respectively, and North China would show significant increase. The regions with high-risk forest fires would also increase due to climate change, with the most significant increase under RCP 8.5 scenario (+1.6%).

Global vegetation-fire pattern under different land use and climate conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thonicke, K.; Poulter, B.; Heyder, U.; Gumpenberger, M.; Cramer, W.

2008-12-01

Fire is a process of global significance in the Earth System influencing vegetation dynamics, biogeochemical cycling and biophysical feedbacks. Naturally ignited wildfires have long history in the Earth System. Humans have been using fire to shape the landscape for their purposes for many millenia, sometimes influencing the status of the vegetation remarkably as for example in Mediterranean-type ecosystems. Processes and drivers describing fire danger, ignitions, fire spread and effects are relatively well-known for many fire-prone ecosystems. Modeling these has a long tradition in fire-affected regions to predict fire risk and behavior for fire-fighting purposes. On the other hand, the global vegetation community realized the importance of disturbances to be recognized in their global vegetation models with fire being globally most important and so-far best studied. First attempts to simulate fire globally considered a minimal set of drivers, whereas recent developments attempt to consider each fire process separately. The process-based fire model SPITFIRE (SPread and InTensity of FIRE) simulates these processes embedded in the LPJ DGVM. Uncertainties still arise from missing measurements for some parameters in less-studied fire regimes, or from broad PFT classifications which subsume different fire-ecological adaptations and tolerances. Some earth observation data sets as well as fire emission models help to evaluate seasonality and spatial distribution of simulated fire ignitions, area burnt and fire emissions within SPITFIRE. Deforestation fires are a major source of carbon released to the atmosphere in the tropics; in the Amazon basin it is the second-largest contributor to Brazils GHG emissions. How ongoing deforestation affects fire regimes, forest stability and biogeochemical cycling in the Amazon basin under present climate conditions will be presented. Relative importance of fire vs. climate and land use change is analyzed. Emissions resulting from wildfires, agricultural and woodfuel burning will be quantified and drivers identified. Future projections of climate and land use change are applied to the model to investigate joint effects on future changes in fire, deforestation and vegetation dynamics in the Amazon basin.

Improving fire season definition by optimized temporal modelling of daily human-caused ignitions.

PubMed

Costafreda-Aumedes, S; Vega-Garcia, C; Comas, C

2018-07-01

Wildfire suppression management is usually based on fast control of all ignitions, especially in highly populated countries with pervasive values-at-risk. To minimize values-at-risk loss by improving response time of suppression resources it is necessary to anticipate ignitions, which are mainly caused by people. Previous studies have found that human-ignition patterns change spatially and temporally depending on socio-economic activities, hence, the deployment of suppression resources along the year should consider these patterns. However, full suppression capacity is operational only within legally established fire seasons, driven by past events and budgets, which limits response capacity and increases damages out of them. The aim of this study was to assess the temporal definition of fire seasons from the perspective of human-ignition patterns for the case study of Spain, where people cause over 95% of fires. Humans engage in activities that use fire as a tool in certain periods within a year, and in locations linked to specific spatial factors. Geographic variables (population, infrastructures, physiography and land uses) were used as explanatory variables for human-ignition patterns. The changing influence of these geographic variables on occurrence along the year was analysed with day-by-day logistic regression models. Daily models were built for all the municipal units in the two climatic regions in Spain (Atlantic and Mediterranean Spain) from 2002 to 2014, and similar models were grouped within continuous periods, designated as ignition-based seasons. We found three ignition-based seasons in the Mediterranean region and five in the Atlantic zones, not coincidental with calendar seasons, but with a high degree of agreement with current legally designated operational fire seasons. Our results suggest that an additional late-winter-early-spring fire season in the Mediterranean area and the extension of this same season in the Atlantic zone should be re-considered for operational purposes in the future. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Recent changes and relations among drought, vegetation and wildfires in the Eastern Mediterranean: The case of Israel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turco, Marco; Levin, Noam; Tessler, Naama; Saaroni, Hadas

2017-04-01

On-going changes in drought, vegetation and wildfires in Israel provide a key example of possible future evolution in transition areas at the border between Mediterranean and arid climates. Here we present multiple lines of evidence suggesting that drought conditions in Israel, representing the eastern Mediterranean, have increased during the period 1980-2014. Drought conditions were calculated using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Soil Moisture Index (SSI). A 30-year series (1982-2011) of monthly Fraction of Photosynthetically Active Radiation absorbed by vegetation (FPAR) indicates generally positive trends in winter and spring and negative ones in summer and autumn, except in the transition zone between the southern Negev desert and the Mediterranean climate region, where a statistically significant negative trend in all seasons was found. Available ground observations suggest that fire activity has decreased during the period 1987-2011. Apparent year-to-year oscillations are superposed onto these long-term trends. We show that inter-annual variability of summer fires is related to antecedent wet conditions and to above normal vegetation conditions. These relationships suggest the summer fires in Israel are mainly limited by fuel availability rather than by fuel flammability. On the other hand, the year-to-year variations of spring and autumn fires are significantly related with drought indices. Thus, the increase of drought conditions together with climate projections for further warming and drying in this region, point at a potential increase of fire risk in the intermediate seasons.

Multiple Approaches to the Investigation of Cell Assembly in Memory Research-Present and Future.

PubMed

Sakurai, Yoshio; Osako, Yuma; Tanisumi, Yuta; Ishihara, Eriko; Hirokawa, Junya; Manabe, Hiroyuki

2018-01-01

In this review article we focus on research methodologies for detecting the actual activity of cell assemblies, which are populations of functionally connected neurons that encode information in the brain. We introduce and discuss traditional and novel experimental methods and those currently in development and briefly discuss their advantages and disadvantages for the detection of cell-assembly activity. First, we introduce the electrophysiological method, i.e., multineuronal recording, and review former and recent examples of studies showing models of dynamic coding by cell assemblies in behaving rodents and monkeys. We also discuss how the firing correlation of two neurons reflects the firing synchrony among the numerous surrounding neurons that constitute cell assemblies. Second, we review the recent outstanding studies that used the novel method of optogenetics to show causal relationships between cell-assembly activity and behavioral change. Third, we review the most recently developed method of live-cell imaging, which facilitates the simultaneous observation of firings of a large number of neurons in behaving rodents. Currently, all these available methods have both advantages and disadvantages, and no single measurement method can directly and precisely detect the actual activity of cell assemblies. The best strategy is to combine the available methods and utilize each of their advantages with the technique of operant conditioning of multiple-task behaviors in animals and, if necessary, with brain-machine interface technology to verify the accuracy of neural information detected as cell-assembly activity.

Burn me twice, shame on who? Interactions between successive forest fires across a temperate mountain region.

PubMed

Harvey, Brian J; Donato, Daniel C; Turner, Monica G

2016-09-01

Increasing rates of natural disturbances under a warming climate raise important questions about how multiple disturbances interact. Escalating wildfire activity in recent decades has resulted in some forests re-burning in short succession, but how the severity of one wildfire affects that of a subsequent wildfire is not fully understood. We used a field-validated, satellite-derived, burn-severity atlas to assess interactions between successive wildfires across the US Northern Rocky Mountains a 300,000-km 2 region dominated by fire-prone forests. In areas that experienced two wildfires between 1984 and 2010, we asked: (1) How do overall frequency distributions of burn-severity classes compare between first and second fires? (2) In a given location, how does burn severity of the second fire relate to that of the first? (3) Do interactions between successive fires vary by forest zone or the interval between fires? (4) What factors increase the probability of burning twice as stand-replacing fire? Within the study area, 138,061 ha burned twice between 1984 and 2010. Overall, frequency distributions of burn severity classes (low, moderate, high; quantified using relativized remote sensing indices) were similar between the first and second fires; however burn severity was 5-13% lower in second fires on average. Negative interactions between fires were most pronounced in lower-elevation forests and woodlands, when fire intervals were <10 yr, and when burn severity was low in the first fire. When the first fire burned as high severity and fire intervals exceeded 10-12 yr, burn-severity interactions switched from negative to positive, with high-severity fire begetting subsequent high-severity fire. Locations most likely to experience successive stand-replacing fires were high-elevation forests, which are adapted to high-severity fire, and areas conducive to abundant post-fire tree regeneration. Broadly similar severities among short-interval "re-burns" and other wildfires indicate that positive severity feedbacks, an oft-posited agent of ecosystem decline or state shift, are not an inevitable outcome of re-burning. Nonetheless, context-dependent shifts in both the magnitude and direction of wildfire interactions (associated with forest zone, initial burn-severity, and disturbance interval) illustrate complexities in disturbance interactions and can inform management and predictions of future system dynamics. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Review of termite forest ecology and opportunities to investigate the relationship of termites to fire

Treesearch

Christopher Peterson

2010-01-01

In forests, termites serve as “soil engineers,” translocating mineral soil to the surface, constructing macropores to improve water infiltration, increase soil minerals and organic carbon, facilitate the growth of microbes and affect the growth of vegetation. The future productivity of a forest site therefore depends to some degree on termite activity. Termites could...

Standing on the Shoulders of Giants: Where Do We Go from Here to Bring the Fire Service into the Domestic Intelligence Community?

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-09-01

49 B. AREAS FOR FURTHER STUDY ...............................................................49 C. LEVERAGING CURRENT TECHNOLOGY AND THE FUTURE...Working Group also monitored network governance developments necessary to renovate existing DHS computer-based communication channels and technological ... technology ? b. What role does suspicious activity reporting play? 24 With these questions in mind, policies and plans related to intelligence

Impacts of changing fire weather conditions on reconstructed trends in U.S. wildland fire activity from 1979 to 2014

Treesearch

Patrick H. Freeborn; W. Matt Jolly; Mark A. Cochrane

2016-01-01

One component of climate‐fire interactions is the relationship between weather conditions concurrent with burning (i.e., fire danger) and the magnitude of fire activity. Here daily environmental conditions are associated with daily observations of fire activity within ecoregions across the continental United States (CONUS) by aligning the latter 12 years of a 36 year...

Reliance on Simulation in Initial Entry Rifle Marksmanship Training and Future Directions for Simulation

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-11-01

Engagement Simulation Training, and a day of dry -fire. The comparison was conducted during training with iron sights. On the two criterion measures, the...other five days of training consisted of two days of Engagement Skills Trainer (EST) 2000 training, one day of dry -fire, and two days of live-fire...0 / RM1 Preliminary Marksmanship Training Same as Baseline 1 / RM2 EST 2000 (grouping/zeroing) Test-D Drills 2 / RM3 Dry -Fire Training 25m Live-Fire

Fire and amphibians in North America

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pilliod, D.S.; Bury, R.B.; Hyde, E.J.; Pearl, C.A.; Corn, P.S.

2003-01-01

Information on amphibian responses to fire and fuel reduction practices is critically needed due to potential declines of species and the prevalence of new, more intensive fire management practices in North American forests. The goals of this review are to summarize the known and potential effects of fire and fuels management on amphibians and their aquatic habitats, and to identify information gaps to help direct future scientific research. Amphibians as a group are taxonomically and ecologically diverse; in turn, responses to fire and associated habitat alteration are expected to vary widely among species and among geographic regions. Available data suggest that amphibian responses to fire are spatially and temporally variable and incompletely understood. Much of the limited research has addressed short-term (1–3 years) effects of prescribed fire on terrestrial life stages of amphibians in the southeastern United States. Information on the long-term negative effects of fire on amphibians and the importance of fire for maintaining amphibian communities is sparse for the majority of taxa in North America. Given the size and severity of recent wildland fires and the national effort to reduce fuels on federal lands, future studies are needed to examine the effects of these landscape disturbances on amphibians. We encourage studies to address population-level responses of amphibians to fire by examining how different life stages are affected by changes in aquatic, riparian, and upland habitats. Research designs need to be credible and provide information that is relevant for fire managers and those responsible for assessing the potential effects of various fuel reduction alternatives on rare, sensitive, and endangered amphibian species.

Gas Fride Heat Pumps : The Present and Future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kurosawa, Shigekichi; Ogura, Masao

In japan techniques for saving energy is an important goal since energy resources such as oil and nuclear power are limited. Recently gas fired absorption heat pumps and gas engine driven heat pumps have been installed in facilifies such as hotels, swimming pools and offices.
In this article recent techniques, applications and future aspects for gas fired heat pumps are explained.

KSC-08pd1096

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-05-01

CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. -- In Firing Room No. 1 in the Launch Control Center at NASA's Kennedy Space Center, workers line up the new equipment cabinets. The firing room will support the future Ares rocket launches as part of the Constellation Program. Future astronauts will ride to orbit on Ares I, which uses a single five-segment solid rocket booster, a derivative of the space shuttle's solid rocket booster, for the first stage. Ares will be launched from Pad 39B, which is being reconfigured from supporting space shuttle launches. The Launch Control Center firing rooms face the launch pads. Photo credit: NASA/Kim Shiflett

[Drivers of human-caused fire occurrence and its variation trend under climate change in the Great Xing'an Mountains, Northeast China].

PubMed

Li, Shun; Wu, Zhi Wei; Liang, Yu; He, Hong Shi

2017-01-01

The Great Xing'an Mountains are an important boreal forest region in China with high frequency of fire occurrences. With climate change, this region may have a substantial change in fire frequency. Building the relationship between spatial pattern of human-caused fire occurrence and its influencing factors, and predicting the spatial patterns of human-caused fires under climate change scenarios are important for fire management and carbon balance in boreal forests. We employed a spatial point pattern model to explore the relationship between the spatial pattern of human-caused fire occurrence and its influencing factors based on a database of historical fire records (1967-2006) in the Great Xing'an Mountains. The fire occurrence time was used as dependent variable. Nine abiotic (annual temperature and precipitation, elevation, aspect, and slope), biotic (vegetation type), and human factors (distance to the nearest road, road density, and distance to the nearest settlement) were selected as explanatory variables. We substituted the climate scenario data (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5) for the current climate data to predict the future spatial patterns of human-caused fire occurrence in 2050. Our results showed that the point pattern progress (PPP) model was an effective tool to predict the future relationship between fire occurrence and its spatial covariates. The climatic variables might significantly affect human-caused fire occurrence, while vegetation type, elevation and human variables were important predictors of human-caused fire occurrence. The human-caused fire occurrence probability was expected to increase in the south of the area, and the north and the area along the main roads would also become areas with high human-caused fire occurrence. The human-caused fire occurrence would increase by 72.2% under the RCP 2.6 scenario and by 166.7% under the RCP 8.5 scenario in 2050. Under climate change scenarios, the spatial patterns of human-caused fires were mainly influenced by the climate and human factors.

Using Unplanned Fires to Help Suppressing Future Large Fires in Mediterranean Forests

PubMed Central

Regos, Adrián; Aquilué, Núria; Retana, Javier; De Cáceres, Miquel; Brotons, Lluís

2014-01-01

Despite the huge resources invested in fire suppression, the impact of wildfires has considerably increased across the Mediterranean region since the second half of the 20th century. Modulating fire suppression efforts in mild weather conditions is an appealing but hotly-debated strategy to use unplanned fires and associated fuel reduction to create opportunities for suppression of large fires in future adverse weather conditions. Using a spatially-explicit fire–succession model developed for Catalonia (Spain), we assessed this opportunistic policy by using two fire suppression strategies that reproduce how firefighters in extreme weather conditions exploit previous fire scars as firefighting opportunities. We designed scenarios by combining different levels of fire suppression efficiency and climatic severity for a 50-year period (2000–2050). An opportunistic fire suppression policy induced large-scale changes in fire regimes and decreased the area burnt under extreme climate conditions, but only accounted for up to 18–22% of the area to be burnt in reference scenarios. The area suppressed in adverse years tended to increase in scenarios with increasing amounts of area burnt during years dominated by mild weather. Climate change had counterintuitive effects on opportunistic fire suppression strategies. Climate warming increased the incidence of large fires under uncontrolled conditions but also indirectly increased opportunities for enhanced fire suppression. Therefore, to shift fire suppression opportunities from adverse to mild years, we would require a disproportionately large amount of area burnt in mild years. We conclude that the strategic planning of fire suppression resources has the potential to become an important cost-effective fuel-reduction strategy at large spatial scale. We do however suggest that this strategy should probably be accompanied by other fuel-reduction treatments applied at broad scales if large-scale changes in fire regimes are to be achieved, especially in the wider context of climate change. PMID:24727853

Mitigating operating room fires: development of a carbon dioxide fire prevention device.

PubMed

Culp, William C; Kimbrough, Bradly A; Luna, Sarah; Maguddayao, Aris J

2014-04-01

Operating room fires are sentinel events that present a real danger to surgical patients and occur at least as frequently as wrong-sided surgery. For fire to occur, the 3 points of the fire triad must be present: an oxidizer, an ignition source, and fuel source. The electrosurgical unit (ESU) pencil triggers most operating room fires. Carbon dioxide (CO2) is a gas that prevents ignition and suppresses fire by displacing oxygen. We hypothesize that a device can be created to reduce operating room fires by generating a cone of CO2 around the ESU pencil tip. One such device was created by fabricating a divergent nozzle and connecting it to a CO2 source. This device was then placed over the ESU pencil, allowing the tip to be encased in a cone of CO2 gas. The device was then tested in 21%, 50%, and 100% oxygen environments. The ESU was activated at 50 W cut mode while placing the ESU pencil tip on a laparotomy sponge resting on an aluminum test plate for up to 30 seconds or until the sponge ignited. High-speed videography was used to identify time of ignition. Each test was performed in each oxygen environment 5 times with the device activated (CO2 flow 8 L/min) and with the device deactivated (no CO2 flow-control). In addition, 3-dimensional spatial mapping of CO2 concentrations was performed with a CO2 sampling device. The median ± SD [range] ignition time of the control group in 21% oxygen was 2.9 s ± 0.44 [2.3-3.0], in 50% oxygen 0.58 s ± 0.12 [0.47-0.73], and in 100% oxygen 0.48 s ± 0.50 [0.03-1.27]. Fires were ignited with each control trial (15/15); no fires ignited when the device was used (0/15, P < 0.0001). The CO2 concentration at the end of the ESU pencil tip was 95%, while the average CO2 concentration 1 to 1.4 cm away from the pencil tip on the bottom plane was 64%. In conclusion, an operating room fire prevention device can be created by using a divergent nozzle design through which CO2 passes, creating a cone of fire suppressant. This device as demonstrated in a flammability model effectively reduced the risk of fire. CO2 3-dimensional spatial mapping suggests effective fire reduction at least 1 cm away from the tip of the ESU pencil at 8 L/min CO2 flow. Future testing should determine optimum CO2 flow rates and ideal nozzle shapes. Use of this device may substantially reduce the risk of patient injury due to operating room fires.

Particulate Air Pollution from Wildfires in the Western US under Climate Change

PubMed Central

Liu, Jia Coco; Mickley, Loretta J.; Sulprizio, Melissa P.; Dominici, Francesca; Yue, Xu; Ebisu, Keita; Anderson, Georgiana Brooke; Khan, Rafi F. A.; Bravo, Mercedes A.; Bell, Michelle L.

2016-01-01

Wildfire can impose a direct impact on human health under climate change. While the potential impacts of climate change on wildfires and resulting air pollution have been studied, it is not known who will be most affected by the growing threat of wildfires. Identifying communities that will be most affected will inform development of fire management strategies and disaster preparedness programs. We estimate levels of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) directly attributable to wildfires in 561 western US counties during fire seasons for the present-day (2004-2009) and future (2046-2051), using a fire prediction model and GEOS-Chem, a 3-D global chemical transport model. Future estimates are obtained under a scenario of moderately increasing greenhouse gases by mid-century. We create a new term “Smoke Wave,” defined as ≥2 consecutive days with high wildfire-specific PM2.5, to describe episodes of high air pollution from wildfires. We develop an interactive map to demonstrate the counties likely to suffer from future high wildfire pollution events. For 2004-2009, on days exceeding regulatory PM2.5 standards, wildfires contributed an average of 71.3% of total PM2.5. Under future climate change, we estimate that more than 82 million individuals will experience a 57% and 31% increase in the frequency and intensity, respectively, of Smoke Waves. Northern California, Western Oregon and the Great Plains are likely to suffer the highest exposure to widlfire smoke in the future. Results point to the potential health impacts of increasing wildfire activity on large numbers of people in a warming climate and the need to establish or modify US wildfire management and evacuation programs in high-risk regions. The study also adds to the growing literature arguing that extreme events in a changing climate could have significant consequences for human health. PMID:28642628

Particulate Air Pollution from Wildfires in the Western US under Climate Change.

PubMed

Liu, Jia Coco; Mickley, Loretta J; Sulprizio, Melissa P; Dominici, Francesca; Yue, Xu; Ebisu, Keita; Anderson, Georgiana Brooke; Khan, Rafi F A; Bravo, Mercedes A; Bell, Michelle L

2016-10-01

Wildfire can impose a direct impact on human health under climate change. While the potential impacts of climate change on wildfires and resulting air pollution have been studied, it is not known who will be most affected by the growing threat of wildfires. Identifying communities that will be most affected will inform development of fire management strategies and disaster preparedness programs. We estimate levels of fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) directly attributable to wildfires in 561 western US counties during fire seasons for the present-day (2004-2009) and future (2046-2051), using a fire prediction model and GEOS-Chem, a 3-D global chemical transport model. Future estimates are obtained under a scenario of moderately increasing greenhouse gases by mid-century. We create a new term "Smoke Wave," defined as ≥2 consecutive days with high wildfire-specific PM 2.5 , to describe episodes of high air pollution from wildfires. We develop an interactive map to demonstrate the counties likely to suffer from future high wildfire pollution events. For 2004-2009, on days exceeding regulatory PM 2.5 standards, wildfires contributed an average of 71.3% of total PM 2.5 . Under future climate change, we estimate that more than 82 million individuals will experience a 57% and 31% increase in the frequency and intensity, respectively, of Smoke Waves. Northern California, Western Oregon and the Great Plains are likely to suffer the highest exposure to widlfire smoke in the future. Results point to the potential health impacts of increasing wildfire activity on large numbers of people in a warming climate and the need to establish or modify US wildfire management and evacuation programs in high-risk regions. The study also adds to the growing literature arguing that extreme events in a changing climate could have significant consequences for human health.

Seizures and Sleep in the Thalamus: Focal Limbic Seizures Show Divergent Activity Patterns in Different Thalamic Nuclei.

PubMed

Feng, Li; Motelow, Joshua E; Ma, Chanthia; Biche, William; McCafferty, Cian; Smith, Nicholas; Liu, Mengran; Zhan, Qiong; Jia, Ruonan; Xiao, Bo; Duque, Alvaro; Blumenfeld, Hal

2017-11-22

The thalamus plays diverse roles in cortical-subcortical brain activity patterns. Recent work suggests that focal temporal lobe seizures depress subcortical arousal systems and convert cortical activity into a pattern resembling slow-wave sleep. The potential simultaneous and paradoxical role of the thalamus in both limbic seizure propagation, and in sleep-like cortical rhythms has not been investigated. We recorded neuronal activity from the central lateral (CL), anterior (ANT), and ventral posteromedial (VPM) nuclei of the thalamus in an established female rat model of focal limbic seizures. We found that population firing of neurons in CL decreased during seizures while the cortex exhibited slow waves. In contrast, ANT showed a trend toward increased neuronal firing compatible with polyspike seizure discharges seen in the hippocampus. Meanwhile, VPM exhibited a remarkable increase in sleep spindles during focal seizures. Single-unit juxtacellular recordings from CL demonstrated reduced overall firing rates, but a switch in firing pattern from single spikes to burst firing during seizures. These findings suggest that different thalamic nuclei play very different roles in focal limbic seizures. While limbic nuclei, such as ANT, appear to participate directly in seizure propagation, arousal nuclei, such as CL, may contribute to depressed cortical function, whereas sleep spindles in relay nuclei, such as VPM, may interrupt thalamocortical information flow. These combined effects could be critical for controlling both seizure severity and impairment of consciousness. Further understanding of differential effects of seizures on different thalamocortical networks may lead to improved treatments directly targeting these modes of impaired function. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Temporal lobe epilepsy has a major negative impact on quality of life. Previous work suggests that the thalamus plays a critical role in thalamocortical network modulation and subcortical arousal maintenance, but its precise seizure-associated functions are not known. We recorded neuronal activity in three different thalamic regions and found divergent activity patterns, which may respectively participate in seizure propagation, impaired level of conscious arousal, and altered relay of information to the cortex during focal limbic seizures. These very different activity patterns within the thalamus may help explain why focal temporal lobe seizures often disrupt widespread network function, and can help guide future treatments aimed at restoring normal thalamocortical network activity and cognition. Copyright © 2017 the authors 0270-6474/17/3711441-14$15.00/0.

Seizures and Sleep in the Thalamus: Focal Limbic Seizures Show Divergent Activity Patterns in Different Thalamic Nuclei

PubMed Central

Feng, Li; Motelow, Joshua E.; Ma, Chanthia; Liu, Mengran; Zhan, Qiong; Jia, Ruonan; Xiao, Bo; Duque, Alvaro

2017-01-01

The thalamus plays diverse roles in cortical-subcortical brain activity patterns. Recent work suggests that focal temporal lobe seizures depress subcortical arousal systems and convert cortical activity into a pattern resembling slow-wave sleep. The potential simultaneous and paradoxical role of the thalamus in both limbic seizure propagation, and in sleep-like cortical rhythms has not been investigated. We recorded neuronal activity from the central lateral (CL), anterior (ANT), and ventral posteromedial (VPM) nuclei of the thalamus in an established female rat model of focal limbic seizures. We found that population firing of neurons in CL decreased during seizures while the cortex exhibited slow waves. In contrast, ANT showed a trend toward increased neuronal firing compatible with polyspike seizure discharges seen in the hippocampus. Meanwhile, VPM exhibited a remarkable increase in sleep spindles during focal seizures. Single-unit juxtacellular recordings from CL demonstrated reduced overall firing rates, but a switch in firing pattern from single spikes to burst firing during seizures. These findings suggest that different thalamic nuclei play very different roles in focal limbic seizures. While limbic nuclei, such as ANT, appear to participate directly in seizure propagation, arousal nuclei, such as CL, may contribute to depressed cortical function, whereas sleep spindles in relay nuclei, such as VPM, may interrupt thalamocortical information flow. These combined effects could be critical for controlling both seizure severity and impairment of consciousness. Further understanding of differential effects of seizures on different thalamocortical networks may lead to improved treatments directly targeting these modes of impaired function. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Temporal lobe epilepsy has a major negative impact on quality of life. Previous work suggests that the thalamus plays a critical role in thalamocortical network modulation and subcortical arousal maintenance, but its precise seizure-associated functions are not known. We recorded neuronal activity in three different thalamic regions and found divergent activity patterns, which may respectively participate in seizure propagation, impaired level of conscious arousal, and altered relay of information to the cortex during focal limbic seizures. These very different activity patterns within the thalamus may help explain why focal temporal lobe seizures often disrupt widespread network function, and can help guide future treatments aimed at restoring normal thalamocortical network activity and cognition. PMID:29066556

Risks, designs, and research for fire safety in spacecraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Friedman, Robert; Sacksteder, Kurt R.; Urban, David

1991-01-01

Current fire protection for spacecraft relies mainly on fire prevention through the use of nonflammable materials and strict storage controls of other materials. The Shuttle also has smoke detectors and fire extinguishers, using technology similar to aircraft practices. While experience has shown that the current fire protection is adequate, future improvements in fire safety technology to meet the challenges of long duration space missions, such as the Space Station Freedom, are essential. All spacecraft fire protection systems, however, must deal with the unusual combustion characteristics and operational problems in the low gravity environment. The features of low gravity combustion that affect spacecraft fire safety, and the issues in fire protection for Freedom that must be addressed eventually to provide effective and conservative fire protection systems are discussed.

Landslide hazard and forest fires - the relevance of geology for landslide type and development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernandez-Steeger, Tomas M.; Wiatr, Thomas; Papanikolaou, Ioannis; Reicherter, Klaus

2010-05-01

Current research indicates an increasing number of forest fires incidents and burned areas for Europe in the future (e.g. Moriondo et al., 2006). Besides economical and environmental impacts they can cause future "secondary" hazards like landslides, debris flows and flash floods. There are many past and current studies investigating effects of erosion and landslide phenomena like debris flows in burned areas (s. Shakesby & Doerr, 2006). The influence of the geological framework is often neglected in these studies. Furthermore, deep seated landslides and slumps are only hypothetically described (Swanson, 1981). To study the relevance of geology and to observe the processes, areas in Attica and the western Peloponnese in Greece burned by the catastrophic wildfires of 2007 and 2009 were investigated. The Tertiary Flysch units and the Neogene deposits in the Pyrgos area of the western Peloponnese are generally a landslide prone area. The slopes in the area show the typical morphological features of a landslide landscape. This is not only true for the in 2007 burned areas but also for unburned areas even in some kilometre distance. Large rotational slides with 20 m and higher main scarps interact and build up complex staircase landslide cascades. Even so vegetation indicates for the unburned areas currently a low activity. In contrary in the burned areas even 2 years after the fires many recent effects from landslides can be observed, like slope failures, cliff break ups, road failures, destroyed retention walls and cracks in houses. While the shallow landslides show a very high dynamic, also older larger landslides are developing or reactivating. As the changes in landslide activity are limited to the burned areas, it is reasonable that the changes in the hydrological conditions like Swanson (1981) predicted due to the destroyed vegetation are the main trigger mechanism for the new and reactivated landslides. An increased availability of water at the sliding plane and the additional weight of the saturated soils change substantially the limit equilibrium. In general the findings show that the changed environmental conditions due to the fires drastically increased the landslide activity in the area at least locally. In Attica, the affected areas are mostly located in Mesozoic metamorphic units build up from schist and marbles. As the fires stopped only two months before our site visit, the landslide effects are not that explicit and were just beginning to develop. Furthermore, due to the different geology and morphology the areas are not known as typical landslide areas. In the schist areas besides the development of rills and gullies, at several localities shallow soil slip with some 10 m extension could be observed. Anyhow the processes were limited to the weathered cover of the rocks which are much more permeable. On the other hand, in the marble areas only local erosion in the thin soil cover and first activation of debris could be observed. Anyhow, heavy precipitation events lead already to flooding. The results show that the type and extend of landslides which develop after a fire incident are also controlled by geological features like rock types or permeability. Moreover, in an appropriate landslide environment even very large landslides might develop after a forest fires. Moriondo, M. et al. 2006. Potential impact of climate change on fire risk in the Mediterranean area. Climate Res. 31, 85-95. Shakesby, R.A. & Doerr, S.H. 2006. Wildfire as a hydrological and geomorphological agent. Earth Sci. Rev. 74, 269- 307. Swanson, F.J., 1981. Fire and geomorphic processes. in: Mooney et al. (Eds.), Fire Regime and Ecosystem Properties, USDA For. Serv. Gen. Tech. Rep. WO-26, 401-421.

Persistent Effects of Fire Severity on Early Successional Forests in Interior Alaska

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shenoy, Aditi; Johnstone, Jill F.; Kasischke, Eric S.; Kielland, Knut

2011-01-01

There has been a recent increase in the frequency and extent of wildfires in interior Alaska, and this trend is predicted to continue under a warming climate. Although less well documented, corresponding increases in fire severity are expected. Previous research from boreal forests in Alaska and western Canada indicate that severe fire promotes the recruitment of deciduous tree species and decreases the relative abundance of black spruce (Picea mariana) immediately after fire. Here we extend these observations by (1) examining changes in patterns of aspen and spruce density and biomass that occurred during the first two decades of post-fire succession, and (2) comparing patterns of tree composition in relation to variations in post-fire organic layer depth in four burned black spruce forests in interior Alaska after 10-20 years of succession.Wefound that initial effects of fire severity on recruitment and establishment of aspen and black spruce were maintained by subsequent effects of organic layer depth and initial plant biomass on plant growth during post-fire succession. The proportional contribution of aspen (Populus tremuloides) to total stand biomass remained above 90% during the first and second decades of succession in severely burned sites, while in lightly burned sites the proportional contribution of aspen was reduced due to a 40- fold increase in spruce biomass in these sites. Relationships between organic layer depth and stem density and biomass were consistently negative for aspen, and positive or neutral for black spruce in all four burns. Our results suggest that initial effects of post-fire organic layer depths on deciduous recruitment are likely to translate into a prolonged phase of deciduous dominance during post-fire succession in severely burned stands. This shift in vegetation distribution has important implications for climate-albedo feedbacks, future fire regime, wildlife habitat quality and natural resources for indigenous subsistence activities in interior Alaska.

Synchronous fire activity in the tropical high Andes: an indication of regional climate forcing.

PubMed

Román-Cuesta, R M; Carmona-Moreno, C; Lizcano, G; New, M; Silman, M; Knoke, T; Malhi, Y; Oliveras, I; Asbjornsen, H; Vuille, M

2014-06-01

Global climate models suggest enhanced warming of the tropical mid and upper troposphere, with larger temperature rise rates at higher elevations. Changes in fire activity are amongst the most significant ecological consequences of rising temperatures and changing hydrological properties in mountainous ecosystems, and there is a global evidence of increased fire activity with elevation. Whilst fire research has become popular in the tropical lowlands, much less is known of the tropical high Andean region (>2000 masl, from Colombia to Bolivia). This study examines fire trends in the high Andes for three ecosystems, the Puna, the Paramo and the Yungas, for the period 1982-2006. We pose three questions: (i) is there an increased fire response with elevation? (ii) does the El Niño- Southern Oscillation control fire activity in this region? (iii) are the observed fire trends human driven (e.g., human practices and their effects on fuel build-up) or climate driven? We did not find evidence of increased fire activity with elevation but, instead, a quasicyclic and synchronous fire response in Ecuador, Peru and Bolivia, suggesting the influence of high-frequency climate forcing on fire responses on a subcontinental scale, in the high Andes. ENSO variability did not show a significant relation to fire activity for these three countries, partly because ENSO variability did not significantly relate to precipitation extremes, although it strongly did to temperature extremes. Whilst ENSO did not individually lead the observed regional fire trends, our results suggest a climate influence on fire activity, mainly through a sawtooth pattern of precipitation (increased rainfall before fire-peak seasons (t-1) followed by drought spells and unusual low temperatures (t0), which is particularly common where fire is carried by low fuel loads (e.g., grasslands and fine fuel). This climatic sawtooth appeared as the main driver of fire trends, above local human influences and fuel build-up cyclicity. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Wildfire Policy in Mediterranean France: How Far is it Efficient and Sustainable?

PubMed

Curt, Thomas; Frejaville, Thibaut

2018-03-01

A new fire policy reinforcing aggressive fire suppression was established in Mediterranean France in response to the devastating wildfires of the 1990s, but to what extent this has changed fire activity yet remains poorly understood. For this purpose, we compared the number and location of ignitions and of burned areas between two 20-year periods (1975-1994 vs. 1995-2014), in parallel to the changes in fuel covering, human activity promoting ignitions, and fire weather. The number of fires decreased almost continuously since 1975, but sharply after 1994, suggesting an effect of better fire prevention due to the new policy. But the major change in fire activity is a considerable reduction in fire size and burned areas after 1994, especially during summer and in the most fire-prone places, in response to massive efforts put into fire suppression. These reductions have occurred while the covering by fuel biomass, the human pressure on ignition, and the fire weather index increased, thus making the study area more hazardous. Our results suggest that a strategy of aggressive fire suppression has great potential for counterbalancing the effects of climate changes and human activities and for controlling fire activity in the short term. However, we discuss whether such a suppression-oriented approach is sustainable in the context of global changes, which cast new fire challenges as demonstrated by the devastative fires of 2003 and 2016. We advocate for a more comprehensive fire policy to come. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Evidence for nonuniform permafrost degradation after fire in boreal landscapes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Minsley, Burke J.; Pastick, Neal J.; Wylie, Bruce K.; Brown, Dana R.N.; Kass, M. Andy

2016-01-01

Fire can be a significant driver of permafrost change in boreal landscapes, altering the availability of soil carbon and nutrients that have important implications for future climate and ecological succession. However, not all landscapes are equally susceptible to fire-induced change. As fire frequency is expected to increase in the high latitudes, methods to understand the vulnerability and resilience of different landscapes to permafrost degradation are needed. We present a combination of multiscale remote sensing, geophysical, and field observations that reveal details of both near-surface (<1 m) and deeper (>1 m) impacts of fire on permafrost. Along 11 transects that span burned-unburned boundaries in different landscape settings within interior Alaska, subsurface electrical resistivity and nuclear magnetic resonance data indicate locations where permafrost appears to be resilient to disturbance from fire, areas where warm permafrost conditions exist that may be most vulnerable to future change, and also areas where permafrost has thawed. High-resolution geophysical data corroborate remote sensing interpretations of near-surface permafrost and also add new high-fidelity details of spatial heterogeneity that extend from the shallow subsurface to depths of about 10 m. Results show that postfire impacts on permafrost can be variable and depend on multiple factors such as fire severity, soil texture, soil moisture, and time since fire.

Structural fire risk of Portugal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parente, Joana; Pereira, Mário

2017-04-01

Portugal is on the top of the European countries most affected by vegetation fires which underlines the importance of the existence of an updated and coherent fire risk map. This map represent a valuable supporting tool for forest and fire management decisions, focus prevention activities, improve the efficiency of fire detection systems, manage resources and actions of fire fighting with greater effectiveness. Therefore this study proposed a structural fire risk map of the vegetated area of Portugal using a deterministic approach based on the concept of fire risk currently accepted by the scientific community which consists in the combination of the fire hazard and the potential economic damage. The existing fire susceptibility map for Portugal based on the slope, land cover and fire probability, was adopted and updated by the use of a higher resolution digital terrain model, longer burnt area perimeter dataset (1975 - 2013) and the entire set of Corine land cover inventories. Five susceptibility classes were mapped to be in accordance with the Portuguese law and the results confirms the good performance of this model not only in terms of the favourability scores but also in the predictive values. Considering three different scenarios of (maximum, mean, and minimum annual) burnt area, fire hazard were estimate. The vulnerability scores and monetary values of species defined in the literature and by law were used to calculate the potential economic damage. The result was a fire risk map that identifies the areas more prone to be affected by fires in the future and provides an estimate of the economic damage of the fire which will be a valuable tool for forest and fire managers and to minimize the economic and environmental consequences of vegetation fires in Portugal. Acknowledgements: This work was supported by: (i) the project Interact - Integrative Research in Environment,Agro-Chain and Technology, NORTE-01-0145-FEDER-000017, research line BEST, cofinanced by FEDER/NORTE 2020; (ii) the FIREXTR project, PTDC/ATP¬GEO/0462/2014; and, (iii) European Investment Funds by FEDER/COMPETE/POCI-Operacional Competitiveness and Internacionalization Programme, under Project POCI-01-0145-FEDER-006958 and National Funds by FCT - Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology, under the project UID/AGR/04033. We are especially grateful to ICNF and ISA for providing the fire data.

Fire-climate interactions in the American West since 1400 CE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trouet, Valerie; Taylor, Alan H.; Wahl, Eugene R.; Skinner, Carl N.; Stephens, Scott L.

2010-02-01

Despite a strong anthropogenic fingerprint on 20th Century wildland fire activity in the American West, climate remains a main driver. A better understanding of the spatio-temporal variability in fire-climate interactions is therefore crucial for fire management. Here, we present annually resolved, tree-ring based fire records for four regions in the American West that extend back to 1400 CE. In all regions, years with high fire activity were characterized by widespread yet regionally distinct summer droughts. Overall fire activity was high in late Medieval times, when much of the American West was affected by mega-droughts. A distinct decline in fire activity in the late 16th Century corresponds with anomalously low temperatures during the Little Ice Age and a decline in Native American fire use. The high spatiotemporal resolution of our fire record discloses a time-frequency dependent climatic influence on wildfire regimes in the American West that needs to be accounted for in fire models.

Fire Patterns and Drivers of Fires in the West African Tropical Forest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dwomoh, F. K.; Wimberly, M. C.

2015-12-01

The West African tropical forest (referred to as the Upper Guinean forest, UGF), is a global biodiversity hotspot providing vital ecosystem services for the region's socio-economic and environmental wellbeing. It is also one of the most fragmented and human-modified tropical forest ecosystems, with the only remaining large patches of original forests contained in protected areas. However, these remnant forests are susceptible to continued fire-mediated degradation and forest loss due to intense climatic, demographic and land use pressures. We analyzed human and climatic drivers of fire activity in the sub-region to better understand the spatial and temporal patterns of these risks. We utilized MODIS active fire and burned area products to identify fire activity within the sub-region. We measured climatic variability using TRMM rainfall data and derived indicators of human land use from a variety of geospatial datasets. We used a boosted regression trees model to determine the influences of predictor variables on fire activity. Our analyses indicated that the spatial and temporal variability of precipitation is a key driving factor of fire activity in the UGF. Anthropogenic effects on fire activity in the area were evident through the influences of agriculture and low-density populations. These human footprints in the landscape make forests more susceptible to fires through forest fragmentation, degradation, and fire spread from agricultural areas. Forested protected areas within the forest savanna mosaic experienced frequent fires, whereas the more humid forest areas located in the south and south-western portions of the study area had fewer fires as these rainforests tend to offer some buffering against fire encroachment. These results improve characterization of UGF fire regime and expand our understanding of the spatio-temporal dynamics of tropical forest fires in response to human and climatic pressures.

Holocene fire, vegetation, and climate dynamics inferred from charcoal and pollen record in the eastern Tibetan Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Wenwei; Zhao, Yan; Qin, Feng

2017-10-01

Understanding fire history and its driving mechanisms can provide valuable insights into present fire regime (intensity, severity and frequency), the interplay between vegetation and fire, and trigger of fire activities. Here we reconstruct the Holocene fire history in the Zoige Basin on the eastern Tibetan Plateau, on the basis of sedimentary micro-charcoal record over the last 10.0 ka (1 ka = 1000 cal yr BP) and discuss the influences of vegetation and climate on fire dynamics. Our results show that regional fire was active at 10.0-3.3 ka and a significant decrease in fire activity characterized the period after 3.3 ka. The high regional fire frequency at 10.0-3.3 ka is consistent with the forested landscape suggested by high affinity scores of cool mixed forest biome (mainly consisted of spruce), implying that fire dynamics during this period was generally controlled by the variations of arboreal biomass and summer temperature. During 6.3-4.6 ka the prevailing Asian summer monsoon provided increased moisture to this region and thus suppressed fire activities to an extent, despite the availability of abundant biomass. Declined tree biomass after 3.3 ka probably accounted for the decreased fire activities. In addition, two successive fire events at ca. 3.5-3.3 ka were likely responsible for the subsequent abrupt decline of forest components in the landscape.

Characterization of the Fire Regime and Drivers of Fires in the West African Tropical Forest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dwomoh, F. K.; Wimberly, M. C.

2016-12-01

The Upper Guinean forest (UGF), encompassing the tropical regions of West Africa, is a globally significant biodiversity hotspot and a critically important socio-economic and ecological resource for the region. However, the UGF is one of the most human-disturbed tropical forest ecosystems with the only remaining large patches of original forests distributed in protected areas, which are embedded in a hotspot of climate stress & land use pressures, increasing their vulnerability to fire. We hypothesized that human impacts and climate interact to drive spatial and temporal variability in fire, with fire exhibiting distinctive seasonality and sensitivity to drought in areas characterized by different population densities, agricultural practices, vegetation types, and levels of forest degradation. We used the MODIS active fire product to identify and characterize fire activity in the major ecoregions of the UGF. We used TRMM rainfall data to measure climatic variability and derived indicators of human land use from a variety of geospatial datasets. We employed time series modeling to identify the influences of drought indices and other antecedent climatic indicators on temporal patterns of active fire occurrence. We used a variety of modeling approaches to assess the influences of human activities and land cover variables on the spatial pattern of fire activity. Our results showed that temporal patterns of fire activity in the UGF were related to precipitation, but these relationships were spatially heterogeneous. The pattern of fire seasonality varied geographically, reflecting both climatological patterns and agricultural practices. The spatial pattern of fire activity was strongly associated with vegetation gradients and anthropogenic activities occurring at fine spatial scales. The Guinean forest-savanna mosaic ecoregion had the most fires. This study contributes to our understanding of UGF fire regime and the spatio-temporal dynamics of tropical forest fires in response to intense human and climatic drivers.

Fire Use Planning

Treesearch

Tom Leuschen; Dale Wade; Paula Seamon

2001-01-01

The success of a fire use program is in large part dependent on a solid foundation set in clear and concise planning. The planning process results in specific goals and measurable objectives for fire application, provides a means of setting priorities, and establishes a mechanism for evaluating and refining the process to meet the desired future condition. It is an...

REGIONAL ESTIMATION OF CURRENT AND FUTURE FOREST BIOMASS. (R828785)

EPA Science Inventory

The 90,674 wildland fires that burned 2.9 million ha at an estimated suppression cost of $1.6 billion in the United States during the 2000 fire season demonstrated that forest fuel loading has become a hazard to life, property, and ecosystem health as a result of past fire exc...

Prescribed Fire Education at Oklahoma State University: Training Our Future Pyros

Treesearch

John R. Weir

2008-01-01

The Rangeland Ecology and Management program at Oklahoma State University recognized the need for a practical, hands-on course designed for undergraduate and graduate students, with instruction on conducting prescribed fires for vegetation management, wildlife management, and livestock management. Two separate prescribed fire courses were initiated in the spring of...

Protecting communities through the National Fire Plan

Treesearch

Michael T. Rains; Jim Hubbard

2002-01-01

In August 2000, the Administration directed the Secretaries of Agriculture and the Interior to prepare a report that would recommend how best to respond to the year's severe wildland fires, reduce the impacts of fires on rural communities, and ensure sufficient firefighting resources in the future. The Secretaries were also asked to list actions that Federal...

Compounding nonlinearities in the climate and wildfire system contribute to high uncertainty in estimates of future burned area in the western United State

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, P.

2015-12-01

Ecological studies are increasingly recognizing the importance of atmospheric vapor-pressure deficit (VPD) as a driver of forest drought stress and disturbance processes such as wildfire. Because of the nonlinear Clausius-Clapeyron relationship between temperature and saturation vapor pressure, small variations in temperature can have large impacts on VPD, and therefore drought, particularly in warm, dry areas and particularly during the warm season. It is also clear that VPD and drought affect forest fire nonlinearly, as incremental drying leads to increasingly large burned areas. Forest fire is also affected by fuel amount and connectivity, which are promoted by vegetation growth in previous years, which is in turn promoted by lack of drought, highlighting the importance of nuances in the sequencing of natural interannual climate variations in modulating the impacts of drought on wildfire. The many factors affecting forest fire, and the nonlinearities embedded within the climate and wildfire systems, cause interannual variability in forest-fire area and frequency to be wildly variable and strongly affected by internal climate variability. In addition, warming over the past century has produced a background increase in forest fire frequency and area in many regions. In this talk I focus on the western United States and will explore whether the relationships between internal climate variability on forest fire area have been amplified by the effects of warming as a result of the compounding nonlinearities described above. I will then explore what this means for future burned area in the western United States and make the case that uncertainties in the future global greenhouse gas emissions trajectory, model projections of mean temperatures, model projections of precipitation, and model projections of natural climate variability translate to very large uncertainties in the effects of future climate variability on forest fire area in the United States and globally.

Wildfire risk in the wildland-urban interface: A simulation study in northwestern Wisconsin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bar-Massada, A.; Radeloff, V.C.; Stewart, S.I.; Hawbaker, T.J.

2009-01-01

The rapid growth of housing in and near the wildland-urban interface (WUI) increases wildfire risk to lives and structures. To reduce fire risk, it is necessary to identify WUI housing areas that are more susceptible to wildfire. This is challenging, because wildfire patterns depend on fire behavior and spread, which in turn depend on ignition locations, weather conditions, the spatial arrangement of fuels, and topography. The goal of our study was to assess wildfire risk to a 60,000 ha WUI area in northwestern Wisconsin while accounting for all of these factors. We conducted 6000 simulations with two dynamic fire models: Fire Area Simulator (FARSITE) and Minimum Travel Time (MTT) in order to map the spatial pattern of burn probabilities. Simulations were run under normal and extreme weather conditions to assess the effect of weather on fire spread, burn probability, and risk to structures. The resulting burn probability maps were intersected with maps of structure locations and land cover types. The simulations revealed clear hotspots of wildfire activity and a large range of wildfire risk to structures in the study area. As expected, the extreme weather conditions yielded higher burn probabilities over the entire landscape, as well as to different land cover classes and individual structures. Moreover, the spatial pattern of risk was significantly different between extreme and normal weather conditions. The results highlight the fact that extreme weather conditions not only produce higher fire risk than normal weather conditions, but also change the fine-scale locations of high risk areas in the landscape, which is of great importance for fire management in WUI areas. In addition, the choice of weather data may limit the potential for comparisons of risk maps for different areas and for extrapolating risk maps to future scenarios where weather conditions are unknown. Our approach to modeling wildfire risk to structures can aid fire risk reduction management activities by identifying areas with elevated wildfire risk and those most vulnerable under extreme weather conditions. ?? 2009 Elsevier B.V.

Fire evolution in the radioactive forests of Ukraine and Belarus: future risks for the population and the environment

Treesearch

N. Evangeliou; Y. Balkanski; A. Cozic; WeiMin Hao; F. Mouillot; K. Thonicke; R. Paugam; S. Zibtsev; T. A. Mousseau; R. Wang; B. Poulter; A. Petkov; C. Yue; P. Cadule; B. Koffi; J. W. Kaiser; A. P. Moller

2015-01-01

In this paper, we analyze the current and future status of forests in Ukraine and Belarus that were contaminated after the nuclear disaster in 1986. Using several models, together with remote-sensing data and observations, we studied how climate change in these forests may affect fire regimes. We investigated the possibility of 137Cs displacement over Europe...

Climate changes and wildfire alter vegetation of Yellowstone National Park, but forest cover persists

USGS Publications Warehouse

Clark, Jason A.; Loehman, Rachel A.; Keane, Robert E.

2017-01-01

We present landscape simulation results contrasting effects of changing climates on forest vegetation and fire regimes in Yellowstone National Park, USA, by mid-21st century. We simulated potential changes to fire dynamics and forest characteristics under three future climate projections representing a range of potential future conditions using the FireBGCv2 model. Under the future climate scenarios with moderate warming (>2°C) and moderate increases in precipitation (3–5%), model simulations resulted in 1.2–4.2 times more burned area, decreases in forest cover (10–44%), and reductions in basal area (14–60%). In these same scenarios, lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) decreased in basal area (18–41%), while Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) basal area increased (21–58%). Conversely, mild warming (<2°C) coupled with greater increases in precipitation (12–13%) suggested an increase in forest cover and basal area by mid-century, with spruce and subalpine fir increasing in abundance. Overall, we found changes in forest tree species compositions were caused by the climate-mediated changes in fire regime (56–315% increase in annual area burned). Simulated changes in forest composition and fire regime under warming climates portray a landscape that shifts from lodgepole pine to Douglas-fir caused by the interaction between the magnitude and seasonality of future climate changes, by climate-induced changes in the frequency and intensity of wildfires, and by tree species response.

Future CO2 emissions and electricity generation from proposed coal-fired power plants in India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shearer, Christine; Fofrich, Robert; Davis, Steven J.

2017-04-01

With its growing population, industrializing economy, and large coal reserves, India represents a critical unknown in global projections of future CO2 emissions. Here, we assess proposed construction of coal-fired power plants in India and evaluate their implications for future emissions and energy production in the country. As of mid-2016, 243 gigawatts (GW) of coal-fired generating capacity are under development in India, including 65 GW under construction and an additional 178 GW proposed. These under-development plants would increase the coal capacity of India's power sector by 123% and, when combined with the country's goal to produce at least 40% of its power from non-fossil sources by 2030, exceed the country's projected future electricity demand. The current proposals for new coal-fired plants could therefore either "strand" fossil energy assets (i.e., force them to retire early or else operate at very low capacity factors) and/or ensure that the goal is not met by "locking-out" new, low-carbon energy infrastructure. Similarly, future emissions from the proposed coal plants would also exceed the country's climate commitment to reduce its 2005 emissions intensity 33% to 35% by 2030, which—when combined with the commitments of all other countries—is itself not yet ambitious enough to meet the international goal of holding warming well below 2°C relative to the pre-industrial era.

Quantifying the Carbon Balance of Forest Restoration and Wildfire under Projected Climate in the Fire-Prone Southwestern US.

PubMed

Hurteau, Matthew D

2017-01-01

Climate projections for the southwestern US suggest a warmer, drier future and have the potential to impact forest carbon (C) sequestration and post-fire C recovery. Restoring forest structure and surface fire regimes initially decreases total ecosystem carbon (TEC), but can stabilize the remaining C by moderating wildfire behavior. Previous research has demonstrated that fire maintained forests can store more C over time than fire suppressed forests in the presence of wildfire. However, because the climate future is uncertain, I sought to determine the efficacy of forest management to moderate fire behavior and its effect on forest C dynamics under current and projected climate. I used the LANDIS-II model to simulate carbon dynamics under early (2010-2019), mid (2050-2059), and late (2090-2099) century climate projections for a ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) dominated landscape in northern Arizona. I ran 100-year simulations with two different treatments (control, thin and burn) and a 1 in 50 chance of wildfire occurring. I found that control TEC had a consistent decline throughout the simulation period, regardless of climate. Thin and burn TEC increased following treatment implementation and showed more differentiation than the control in response to climate, with late-century climate having the lowest TEC. Treatment efficacy, as measured by mean fire severity, was not impacted by climate. Fire effects were evident in the cumulative net ecosystem exchange (NEE) for the different treatments. Over the simulation period, 32.8-48.9% of the control landscape was either C neutral or a C source to the atmosphere and greater than 90% of the thin and burn landscape was a moderate C sink. These results suggest that in southwestern ponderosa pine, restoring forest structure and surface fire regimes provides a reasonable hedge against the uncertainty of future climate change for maintaining the forest C sink.

Quantifying the Carbon Balance of Forest Restoration and Wildfire under Projected Climate in the Fire-Prone Southwestern US

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Climate projections for the southwestern US suggest a warmer, drier future and have the potential to impact forest carbon (C) sequestration and post-fire C recovery. Restoring forest structure and surface fire regimes initially decreases total ecosystem carbon (TEC), but can stabilize the remaining C by moderating wildfire behavior. Previous research has demonstrated that fire maintained forests can store more C over time than fire suppressed forests in the presence of wildfire. However, because the climate future is uncertain, I sought to determine the efficacy of forest management to moderate fire behavior and its effect on forest C dynamics under current and projected climate. I used the LANDIS-II model to simulate carbon dynamics under early (2010–2019), mid (2050–2059), and late (2090–2099) century climate projections for a ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) dominated landscape in northern Arizona. I ran 100-year simulations with two different treatments (control, thin and burn) and a 1 in 50 chance of wildfire occurring. I found that control TEC had a consistent decline throughout the simulation period, regardless of climate. Thin and burn TEC increased following treatment implementation and showed more differentiation than the control in response to climate, with late-century climate having the lowest TEC. Treatment efficacy, as measured by mean fire severity, was not impacted by climate. Fire effects were evident in the cumulative net ecosystem exchange (NEE) for the different treatments. Over the simulation period, 32.8–48.9% of the control landscape was either C neutral or a C source to the atmosphere and greater than 90% of the thin and burn landscape was a moderate C sink. These results suggest that in southwestern ponderosa pine, restoring forest structure and surface fire regimes provides a reasonable hedge against the uncertainty of future climate change for maintaining the forest C sink. PMID:28046079

Forecasting, Forecasting

Treesearch

Michael A. Fosberg

1987-01-01

Future improvements in the meteorological forecasts used in fire management will come from improvements in three areas: observational systems, forecast techniques, and postprocessing of forecasts and better integration of this information into the fire management process.

Human activity accelerating the rapid desertification of the Mu Us Sandy Lands, North China.

PubMed

Miao, Yunfa; Jin, Heling; Cui, Jianxin

2016-03-10

Over the past several thousand years, arid and semiarid China has experienced a series of asynchronous desertification events in its semiarid sandy and desert regions, but the precise identification of the driving forces of such events has remained elusive. In this paper we identify two rapid desertification events (RDEs) at ~4.6 ± 0.2 ka BP and ~3.3 ± 0.2 ka BP from the JJ Profile, located in the eastern Mu Us Sandy Lands. These RDEs appear to have occurred immediately following periods marked by persistently frequent and intense fires. We argue that such fire patterns, directly linked to an uncontrolled human use of vegetation as fuel, played a key role in accelerating RDEs by ensuring that the land surface was degraded beyond the threshold required for rapid desertification. This would suggest that the future use of a massive and sustained ecological program of vegetation rehabilitation should reduce the risk of destructive fire.

How and why multiple MCMs are loaded at origins of DNA replication.

PubMed

Das, Shankar P; Rhind, Nicholas

2016-07-01

Recent work suggests that DNA replication origins are regulated by the number of multiple mini-chromosome maintenance (MCM) complexes loaded. Origins are defined by the loading of MCM - the replicative helicase which initiates DNA replication and replication kinetics determined by origin's location and firing times. However, activation of MCM is heterogeneous; different origins firing at different times in different cells. Also, more MCMs are loaded in G1 than are used in S phase. These aspects of MCM biology are explained by the observation that multiple MCMs are loaded at origins. Having more MCMs at early origins makes them more likely to fire, effecting differences in origin efficiency that define replication timing. Nonetheless, multiple MCM loading raises new questions, such as how they are loaded, where these MCMs reside at origins, and how their presence affects replication timing. In this review, we address these questions and discuss future avenues of research. © 2016 WILEY Periodicals, Inc.

Short-Range Temporal Interactions in Sleep; Hippocampal Spike Avalanches Support a Large Milieu of Sequential Activity Including Replay

PubMed Central

Mahoney, J. Matthew; Titiz, Ali S.; Hernan, Amanda E.; Scott, Rod C.

2016-01-01

Hippocampal neural systems consolidate multiple complex behaviors into memory. However, the temporal structure of neural firing supporting complex memory consolidation is unknown. Replay of hippocampal place cells during sleep supports the view that a simple repetitive behavior modifies sleep firing dynamics, but does not explain how multiple episodes could be integrated into associative networks for recollection during future cognition. Here we decode sequential firing structure within spike avalanches of all pyramidal cells recorded in sleeping rats after running in a circular track. We find that short sequences that combine into multiple long sequences capture the majority of the sequential structure during sleep, including replay of hippocampal place cells. The ensemble, however, is not optimized for maximally producing the behavior-enriched episode. Thus behavioral programming of sequential correlations occurs at the level of short-range interactions, not whole behavioral sequences and these short sequences are assembled into a large and complex milieu that could support complex memory consolidation. PMID:26866597

Human activity accelerating the rapid desertification of the Mu Us Sandy Lands, North China

PubMed Central

Miao, Yunfa; Jin, Heling; Cui, Jianxin

2016-01-01

Over the past several thousand years, arid and semiarid China has experienced a series of asynchronous desertification events in its semiarid sandy and desert regions, but the precise identification of the driving forces of such events has remained elusive. In this paper we identify two rapid desertification events (RDEs) at ~4.6 ± 0.2 ka BP and ~3.3 ± 0.2 ka BP from the JJ Profile, located in the eastern Mu Us Sandy Lands. These RDEs appear to have occurred immediately following periods marked by persistently frequent and intense fires. We argue that such fire patterns, directly linked to an uncontrolled human use of vegetation as fuel, played a key role in accelerating RDEs by ensuring that the land surface was degraded beyond the threshold required for rapid desertification. This would suggest that the future use of a massive and sustained ecological program of vegetation rehabilitation should reduce the risk of destructive fire. PMID:26961705

A human-driven decline in global burned area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andela, N.; Morton, D. C.; Chen, Y.; van der Werf, G.; Giglio, L.; Kasibhatla, P. S.; Randerson, J. T.

2016-12-01

Fire is an important and dynamic ecosystem process that influences many aspects of the global Earth system. Here, we used several different satellite datasets to assess trends in global burned area during 1998 to 2014. Global burned area decreased by about 21.6 ± 8.5% over the period from 1998-2014, with large regional declines observed in savanna and grassland ecosystems in northern Africa, Eurasia, and South America. The decrease in burned area remained robust after removing the influence of climate (16.0 ± 6.0%), implicating human activity as a likely driver. To further investigate the mechanisms contributing to regional and global trends, we conducted several kinds of analysis, including separation of burned area into ignition and fire size components and geospatial analysis of fire trends in relationship with demographic and land use variables. We found that fire number was a more important factor contributing to burned area trends than fire size, suggesting a reduction in the use of fire for management purposes. Concurrent decreases in fire size also contributed to the trend outside of North and South America, suggesting a role for greater landscape fragmentation. From our geospatial analysis, we developed a conceptual model that incorporates a range of drivers for human-driven changes in biomass burning that can be used to guide global fire models, currently unable to reproduce these large scale recent trends. Patterns of agricultural expansion and land use intensification are likely to further contribute to declining burned area trends in future decades, with important consequences for Earth system processes mediated by surface albedo, greenhouse gas emissions, and aerosols. Our results also highlight the vulnerability of savannas and grassland to land use changes with unprecedented global scale consequences for vegetation structure and the carbon cycle.

Connecting smoke plumes to sources using Hazard Mapping System (HMS) smoke and fire location data over North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brey, Steven J.; Ruminski, Mark; Atwood, Samuel A.; Fischer, Emily V.

2018-02-01

Fires represent an air quality challenge because they are large, dynamic and transient sources of particulate matter and ozone precursors. Transported smoke can deteriorate air quality over large regions. Fire severity and frequency are likely to increase in the future, exacerbating an existing problem. Using the National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NESDIS) Hazard Mapping System (HMS) smoke data for North America for the period 2007 to 2014, we examine a subset of fires that are confirmed to have produced sufficient smoke to warrant the initiation of a U.S. National Weather Service smoke forecast. We find that gridded HMS-analyzed fires are well correlated (r = 0.84) with emissions from the Global Fire Emissions Inventory Database 4s (GFED4s). We define a new metric, smoke hours, by linking observed smoke plumes to active fires using ensembles of forward trajectories. This work shows that the Southwest, Northwest, and Northwest Territories initiate the most air quality forecasts and produce more smoke than any other North American region by measure of the number of HYSPLIT points analyzed, the duration of those HYSPLIT points, and the total number of smoke hours produced. The average number of days with smoke plumes overhead is largest over the north-central United States. Only Alaska, the Northwest, the Southwest, and Southeast United States regions produce the majority of smoke plumes observed over their own borders. This work moves a new dataset from a daily operational setting to a research context, and it demonstrates how changes to the frequency or intensity of fires in the western United States could impact other regions.

Fire performance in traditional silvicultural and fire and fire surrogate treatments in Sierran mixed-conifer forests: a brief summary

Treesearch

Jason J. Moghaddas; Scott L. Stephens

2007-01-01

Mixed conifer forests cover 7.9 million acres of California’s total land base. Forest structure in these forests has been influenced by harvest practices and silvicultural systems implemented since the beginning of the California Gold Rush in 1849. Today, the role of fire in coniferous forests, both in shaping past stand structure and its ability to shape future...

Risk of large-scale fires in boreal forests of Finland under changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lehtonen, I.; Venäläinen, A.; Kämäräinen, M.; Peltola, H.; Gregow, H.

2016-01-01

The target of this work was to assess the impact of projected climate change on forest-fire activity in Finland with special emphasis on large-scale fires. In addition, we were particularly interested to examine the inter-model variability of the projected change of fire danger. For this purpose, we utilized fire statistics covering the period 1996-2014 and consisting of almost 20 000 forest fires, as well as daily meteorological data from five global climate models under representative concentration pathway RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The model data were statistically downscaled onto a high-resolution grid using the quantile-mapping method before performing the analysis. In examining the relationship between weather and fire danger, we applied the Canadian fire weather index (FWI) system. Our results suggest that the number of large forest fires may double or even triple during the present century. This would increase the risk that some of the fires could develop into real conflagrations which have become almost extinct in Finland due to active and efficient fire suppression. However, the results reveal substantial inter-model variability in the rate of the projected increase of forest-fire danger, emphasizing the large uncertainty related to the climate change signal in fire activity. We moreover showed that the majority of large fires in Finland occur within a relatively short period in May and June due to human activities and that FWI correlates poorer with the fire activity during this time of year than later in summer when lightning is a more important cause of fires.

Return on investment from fuel treatments to reduce severe wildfire and erosion in a watershed investment program in Colorado.

PubMed

Jones, Kelly W; Cannon, Jeffery B; Saavedra, Freddy A; Kampf, Stephanie K; Addington, Robert N; Cheng, Antony S; MacDonald, Lee H; Wilson, Codie; Wolk, Brett

2017-08-01

A small but growing number of watershed investment programs in the western United States focus on wildfire risk reduction to municipal water supplies. This paper used return on investment (ROI) analysis to quantify how the amounts and placement of fuel treatment interventions would reduce sediment loading to the Strontia Springs Reservoir in the Upper South Platte River watershed southwest of Denver, Colorado following an extreme fire event. We simulated various extents of fuel mitigation activities under two placement strategies: (a) a strategic treatment prioritization map and (b) accessibility. Potential fire behavior was modeled under each extent and scenario to determine the impact on fire severity, and this was used to estimate expected change in post-fire erosion due to treatments. We found a positive ROI after large storm events when fire mitigation treatments were placed in priority areas with diminishing marginal returns after treating >50-80% of the forested area. While our ROI results should not be used prescriptively they do show that, conditional on severe fire occurrence and precipitation, investments in the Upper South Platte could feasibly lead to positive financial returns based on the reduced costs of dredging sediment from the reservoir. While our analysis showed positive ROI focusing only on post-fire erosion mitigation, it is important to consider multiple benefits in future ROI calculations and increase monitoring and evaluation of these benefits of wildfire fuel reduction investments for different site conditions and climates. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Potential health impacts from range fires at Aberdeen Proving Ground, Maryland.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Willians, G.P.; Hermes, A.M.; Policastro, A.J.

1998-03-01

This study uses atmospheric dispersion computer models to evaluate the potential for human health impacts from exposure to contaminants that could be dispersed by fires on the testing ranges at Aberdeen Proving Ground, Maryland. It was designed as a screening study and does not estimate actual human health risks. Considered are five contaminants possibly present in the soil and vegetation from past human activities at APG--lead, arsenic, trichloroethylene (TCE), depleted uranium (DU), and dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT); and two chemical warfare agents that could be released from unexploded ordnance rounds heated in a range fire--mustard and phosgene. For comparison, dispersion of twomore » naturally occurring compounds that could be released by burning of uncontaminated vegetation--vinyl acetate and 2-furaldehyde--is also examined. Data from previous studies on soil contamination at APG are used in conjunction with conservative estimates about plant uptake of contaminants, atmospheric conditions, and size and frequency of range fires at APG to estimate dispersion and possible human exposure. The results are compared with US Environmental Protection Agency action levels. The comparisons indicate that for all of the anthropogenic contaminants except arsenic and mustard, exposure levels would be at least an order of magnitude lower than the corresponding action levels. Because of the compoundingly conservative nature of the assumptions made, they conclude that the potential for significant human health risks from range fires is low. The authors recommend that future efforts be directed at fire management and control, rather than at conducting additional studies to more accurately estimate actual human health risk from range fires.« less

Use of spatially refined satellite remote sensing fire detection data to initialize and evaluate coupled weather-wildfire growth model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schroeder, W.; Coen, J.; Oliva, P.

2013-12-01

Availability of spatially refined satellite active fire detection data is gradually increasing. For example, the new 375 m Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) data show improved active fire detection performance for both small and large size fires. The VIIRS data have proved superior to MODIS for mapping of wildfires events spanning several days to weeks of either continued or intermittent activity, delivering 12-h active fire data of improved spatial fidelity. The VIIRS active fire data are complemented by other satellite active fire data sets of similar or higher spatial resolution, including the new 30 m Landsat-8. Additional assets should include the upcoming 20 m Sentinel-2 Landsat-class satellite program by the European Space Agency to be launched in 2014-15. These improved active fire data sets are fostering new applications that rely on higher resolution input fire data. In this study, we describe the characteristics of the new VIIRS and Landsat-8 data and demonstrate one such new application of satellite active fire data in support of fire behavior modeling. We present results for a wildfire observed in June 2012 in New Mexico using an innovative approach to improving the simulation of large, long-duration wildfires, either for retrospective studies or forecasting in a number of geophysical applications. The approach uses (1) the Coupled Atmosphere-Wildland Fire Environment (CAWFE) Model, a numerical weather prediction model two-way coupled with a module representing the rate of spread of a wildfire's flaming front, its rate of consumption of different wildland fuels, and the feedback of this heat release upon the atmosphere - i.e. 'how a fire creates its own weather', combined with (2) spatially refined 375 m VIIRS active fire data, which is used for initialization of a wildfire already in progress in the model and evaluation of its simulated progression at the time of the next pass. Results show that initializing a fire that is 'in progress' with VIIRS data and a weather simulation based on more recent atmospheric analyses can overcome several issues and improve the simulation of late-developing fires and of later periods (particularly those with growth periods separated by lulls) in a long-lived fire.

Fine-scale spatial climate variation and drought mediate the likelihood of reburning.

PubMed

Parks, Sean A; Parisien, Marc-André; Miller, Carol; Holsinger, Lisa M; Baggett, Larry Scott

2018-03-01

In many forested ecosystems, it is increasingly recognized that the probability of burning is substantially reduced within the footprint of previously burned areas. This self-limiting effect of wildland fire is considered a fundamental emergent property of ecosystems and is partly responsible for structuring landscape heterogeneity (i.e., mosaics of different age classes), thereby reducing the likelihood of uncharacteristically large fires in regions with active fire regimes. However, the strength and longevity of this self-limiting phenomenon is not well understood in most fire-prone ecosystems. In this study, we quantify the self-limiting effect in terms of its strength and longevity for five fire-prone study areas in western North America and investigate how each measure varies along a spatial climatic gradient and according to temporal (i.e., annual) climatic variation. Results indicate that the longevity (i.e., number of years) of the self-limiting effect ranges between 15 yr in the warm and dry study area in the southwestern United States to 33 yr in the cold, northern study areas in located in northwestern Montana and the boreal forest of Canada. We also found that spatial climatic variation has a strong influence on wildland fire's self-limiting capacity. Specifically, the self-limiting effect within each study area was stronger and lasted longer in areas with low mean moisture deficit (i.e., wetter and cooler settings) compared to areas with high mean moisture deficit (warmer and drier settings). Last, our findings show that annual climatic variation influences wildland fire's self-limiting effect: drought conditions weakened the strength and longevity of the self-limiting effect in all study areas, albeit at varying magnitudes. Overall, our study provides support for the idea that wildland fire contributes to spatial heterogeneity in fuel ages that subsequently mediate future fire sizes and effects. However, our findings show that the strength and longevity of the self-limiting effect varies considerably according to spatial and temporal climatic variation, providing land and fire managers relevant information for effective planning and management of fire and highlighting that fire itself is an important factor contributing to fire-free intervals. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

Trends in fire risk and burned area in Brazil in the 20th century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silva, P.; Bastos, A.; DaCamara, C.; Libonati, R.

2016-12-01

Fire has a significant contribution to the global greenhouse gas emissions and vast ecological and climatic impacts. Worldwide, Brazil is one of the areas most affected by fire, which highly influences the state of the vegetation cover, the ecological diversity of the region and has significant consequences to the global CO2 balance [1]. Hence, with the increasing evidence of human induced climate change, it becomes essential to understand the present and future trends of fire risk in Brazil. Although a large number of fires in Brazil are anthropogenic, it has been shown that the burned area is mainly controlled by meteorological conditions [2], therefore being partially determined by fire risk. In this study we use a fire danger index specifically tailored for the Brazilian climate and biome characteristics, the MFDI developed by INPE, to assess the patterns and trends of fire risk in Brazil. The index relies on values of maximum temperature, accumulated precipitation over different periods, minimum relative humidity and vegetation cover to estimate the likelihood of fire occurrence. We test the sensitivity of the index to different climate reanalyses and evaluate the trends in fire risk in Brazil during the past four decades for different biomes. We further assess the link between the calculated fire risk and observed fire occurrence and burned area. Finally, we compare the results with fire risk simulated by a regional climate model (RCA4 forced by EC-Earth from CORDEX) in order to evaluate its suitability for future projections of fire risk and burned area. [1] Bowman, D. M. et al. Fire in the earth system. Science, v. 324, p. 481-484, 24 apr. 2009. [2] Libonati, R. et al. An Algorithm for Burned Area Detection in the Brazilian Cerrado Using 4 μm MODIS Imagery. Remote Sensing, v. 7, p. 15782-15803, 2015.

Remote sensing techniques to assess active fire characteristics and post-fire effects

Treesearch

Leigh B. Lentile; Zachary A. Holden; Alistair M. S. Smith; Michael J. Falkowski; Andrew T. Hudak; Penelope Morgan; Sarah A. Lewis; Paul E. Gessler; Nate C. Benson

2006-01-01

Space and airborne sensors have been used to map area burned, assess characteristics of active fires, and characterize post-fire ecological effects. Confusion about fire intensity, fire severity, burn severity, and related terms can result in the potential misuse of the inferred information by land managers and remote sensing practitioners who require unambiguous...

Wildfire Prevention and Suppression plans enhancing: a first overview on strength and weakness in Italian stakeholders experiences and perception.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonora, Laura; Conese, Claudio; Barbati, Anna

2014-05-01

Fires and wildfires represent an element of vulnerability for forests, considering that have now reached a level beyond which further burning would seriously endanger the ecosystem services and their sustainable management. It is fundamental to support fire-fighting Centres by giving them tools, useful to faces future trends; in this sense the first step is to examine technical and operative procedures to evaluate their strong and weak aspects, in collaboration with personnel responsible of risk management, suppression coordination and patrol responsible of direct attack. The aims this work is to identify present elements of strength ad problematic aspects to tuning the wildfire suppression actions to future changes; this is a crucial challenge both for policy and territory planners and managers. Historical investigation lines on forest fire covered the basilar and fundamental dynamics which understanding was necessary to confine and fight the wildfire phenomenon. At the present all the competences, knowledge and connections acquired are translating and including in the Plans, sharing innovative strategies -with the "direct involved actors"- trying to decrease the fire trend. Stakeholders underlined that collaboration between research and territorial Institutions are producing positive results, showing the conceptual rightness and the well-run of the in-progress implementations. The Italian framework of wildfire prevention plans is very peculiar because the Plans related to prevention and active intervention procedure are coincident. Normative, procedural, economic and logistic aspects are considered and handled in the same general document; each year the local structures, designed by the Regions, have in charge the draft of the operative plan, defining and managing the means and patrols distribution and turnover. In the present work 3 Italian Regions (Tuscany, Puglia and Sardinia, with different territorial and vegetation characteristics and affected by different fire regimes and incidence) have been selected to investigate, by questionnaire and meetings, stakeholders perception on present strength and weakness in the adopted plans. The results of the answers analysis show some main deficit aspects covering prevalently carthographic and procedural implementations: • Plans shall include a risk and vulnerability map; dangerous seasons are to be determined and have to be updated with current weather conditions. • Standardization of terminology and classifications in the plans. • Plans shall include a specific section for firefighting in RUI, socially being the most important areas to protect and where most complications during firefighting are found. • Protocols shall be adapted to the real on site situation. A single control center in the event of fire should be identified. This is particularly important if third-party resources are involved in the operations. • Use of new technologies, i.e. fire simulators, LIDAR, for fuel amount and availability determination, wind simulation, CO2 emissions, vegetation structure. In the same time some active proposals are supplyed by the operators, directly derived and linked with the wekness above mentioned: • Use of new technological tools for analysis (simulators, etc.) and for driving the operative aspects during the suppression. • Standardization of communication protocols in the plans and during the field operations. • Increase use of fire for landscape management in certain areas. • Investments shall be made in land resources rather than in air means, generally already sufficient. This analysis represents a first effort to collect and schematize the effective applicability level of the indications included in the Plans. It is the base for possible tuning of the research and policy lines and also to tuning the present documents; the indications supplied prove that the efforts done in research are been acquired by the operative sectors and that the active involvement of stakeholder is the future challenge to enhance the plans efficacy.

Interactive effects of environmental change and management strategies on regional forest carbon emissions.

PubMed

Hudiburg, Tara W; Luyssaert, Sebastiaan; Thornton, Peter E; Law, Beverly E

2013-11-19

Climate mitigation activities in forests need to be quantified in terms of the long-term effects on forest carbon stocks, accumulation, and emissions. The impacts of future environmental change and bioenergy harvests on regional forest carbon storage have not been quantified. We conducted a comprehensive modeling study and life-cycle assessment of the impacts of projected changes in climate, CO2 concentration, and N deposition, and region-wide forest management policies on regional forest carbon fluxes. By 2100, if current management strategies continue, then the warming and CO2 fertilization effect in the given projections result in a 32-68% increase in net carbon uptake, overshadowing increased carbon emissions from projected increases in fire activity and other forest disturbance factors. To test the response to new harvesting strategies, repeated thinnings were applied in areas susceptible to fire to reduce mortality, and two clear-cut rotations were applied in productive forests to provide biomass for wood products and bioenergy. The management strategies examined here lead to long-term increased carbon emissions over current harvesting practices, although semiarid regions contribute little to the increase. The harvest rates were unsustainable. This comprehensive approach could serve as a foundation for regional place-based assessments of management effects on future carbon sequestration by forests in other locations.

Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Wildfire Exposure in Mediterranean Areas.

PubMed

Lozano, Olga M; Salis, Michele; Ager, Alan A; Arca, Bachisio; Alcasena, Fermin J; Monteiro, Antonio T; Finney, Mark A; Del Giudice, Liliana; Scoccimarro, Enrico; Spano, Donatella

2017-10-01

We used simulation modeling to assess potential climate change impacts on wildfire exposure in Italy and Corsica (France). Weather data were obtained from a regional climate model for the period 1981-2070 using the IPCC A1B emissions scenario. Wildfire simulations were performed with the minimum travel time fire spread algorithm using predicted fuel moisture, wind speed, and wind direction to simulate expected changes in weather for three climatic periods (1981-2010, 2011-2040, and 2041-2070). Overall, the wildfire simulations showed very slight changes in flame length, while other outputs such as burn probability and fire size increased significantly in the second future period (2041-2070), especially in the southern portion of the study area. The projected changes fuel moisture could result in a lengthening of the fire season for the entire study area. This work represents the first application in Europe of a methodology based on high resolution (250 m) landscape wildfire modeling to assess potential impacts of climate changes on wildfire exposure at a national scale. The findings can provide information and support in wildfire management planning and fire risk mitigation activities. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

Static and dynamic controls on fire activity at moderate spatial and temporal scales in the Alaskan boreal forest

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barrett, Kirsten; Loboda, Tatiana; McGuire, A. David; Genet, Hélène; Hoy, Elizabeth; Kasischke, Eric

2016-01-01

Wildfire, a dominant disturbance in boreal forests, is highly variable in occurrence and behavior at multiple spatiotemporal scales. New data sets provide more detailed spatial and temporal observations of active fires and the post-burn environment in Alaska. In this study, we employ some of these new data to analyze variations in fire activity by developing three explanatory models to examine the occurrence of (1) seasonal periods of elevated fire activity using the number of MODIS active fire detections data set (MCD14DL) within an 11-day moving window, (2) unburned patches within a burned area using the Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity fire severity product, and (3) short-to-moderate interval (<60 yr) fires using areas of burned area overlap in the Alaska Large Fire Database. Explanatory variables for these three models included dynamic variables that can change over the course of the fire season, such as weather and burn date, as well as static variables that remain constant over a fire season, such as topography, drainage, vegetation cover, and fire history. We found that seasonal periods of high fire activity are associated with both seasonal timing and aggregated weather conditions, as well as the landscape composition of areas that are burning. Important static inputs to the model of seasonal fire activity indicate that when fire weather conditions are suitable, areas that typically resist fire (e.g., deciduous stands) may become more vulnerable to burning and therefore less effective as fire breaks. The occurrence of short-to-moderate interval fires appears to be primarily driven by weather conditions, as these were the only relevant explanatory variables in the model. The unique importance of weather in explaining short-to-moderate interval fires implies that fire return intervals (FRIs) will be sensitive to projected climate changes in the region. Unburned patches occur most often in younger stands, which may be related to a greater deciduous fraction of vegetation as well as lower fuel loads compared with mature stands. The fraction of unburned patches may therefore increase in response to decreasing FRIs and increased deciduousness in the region, or these may decrease if fire weather conditions become more severe.

KSC-08pd1095

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-05-01

CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. -- In Firing Room No. 1 in the Launch Control Center at NASA's Kennedy Space Center, the number of new equipment cabinets increases as workers put the elements together. The firing room will support the future Ares rocket launches as part of the Constellation Program. Future astronauts will ride to orbit on Ares I, which uses a single five-segment solid rocket booster, a derivative of the space shuttle's solid rocket booster, for the first stage. Ares will be launched from Pad 39B, which is being reconfigured from supporting space shuttle launches. The Launch Control Center firing rooms face the launch pads. Photo credit: NASA/Kim Shiflett

KSC-08pd1088

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-05-01

CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. -- A near-empty Firing Room No. 1 in the Launch Control Center at NASA's Kennedy Space Center is ready for the installation of racks of equipment. The firing room will support the future Ares rocket launches as part of the Constellation Program. Future astronauts will ride to orbit on Ares I, which uses a single five-segment solid rocket booster, a derivative of the space shuttle's solid rocket booster, for the first stage. Ares will be launched from Pad 39B, which is being reconfigured from supporting space shuttle launches. The Launch Control Center firing rooms face the launch pads. Photo credit: NASA/Kim Shiflett

KSC-08pd1089

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-05-01

CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. -- In Firing Room No. 1 in the Launch Control Center at NASA's Kennedy Space Center, panels stretch across the floor in preparation for erecting equipment racks. The firing room will support the future Ares rocket launches as part of the Constellation Program. Future astronauts will ride to orbit on Ares I, which uses a single five-segment solid rocket booster, a derivative of the space shuttle's solid rocket booster, for the first stage. Ares will be launched from Pad 39B, which is being reconfigured from supporting space shuttle launches. The Launch Control Center firing rooms face the launch pads. Photo credit: NASA/Kim Shiflett

Head Direction Cell Instability in the Anterior Dorsal Thalamus after Lesions of the Interpeduncular Nucleus

PubMed Central

Clark, Benjamin J.; Sarma, Asha; Taube, Jeffrey S.

2009-01-01

Previous research has identified a population of cells throughout the limbic system that discharge as a function of the animals head direction (HD). Altering normal motor cues can alter the HD cell responses and disrupt the updating of their preferred firing directions, thus suggesting that motor cues contribute to processing the HD signal. A pathway that conveys motor information may stem from the interpeduncular nucleus (IPN), a brain region that has reciprocal connections with HD cell circuitry. To test this hypothesis, we produced electrolytic or neurotoxic lesions of the IPN and recorded HD cells in the anterior dorsal thalamus (ADN) of rats. Direction-specific firing remained present in the ADN after lesions of the IPN, but measures of HD cell properties showed that cells had reduced peak firing rates, large directional firing ranges, and firing that predicted the animal’s future heading more than in intact controls. Furthermore, preferred firing directions were moderately less influenced by rotation of a salient visual landmark. Finally, the preferred directions of cells in lesioned rats exhibited large shifts when the animals foraged for scattered food-pellets in a darkened environment and when locomoting from a familiar environment to a novel one. We propose that the IPN contributes motor information about the animal’s movements to the HD cell circuitry. Further, these results suggest that the IPN plays a broad role in the discharge properties and stability of direction-specific activity in the HD cell circuit. PMID:19144850

Learning from escaped prescribed fire reviews [Abstract

Treesearch

Anne Black; Dave Thomas; James Saveland

2011-01-01

Over the past decade, the wildland fire community has developed a number of innovative methods for conducting a review following escape of a prescribed fire. The stated purpose been to identify methods that not only meet policy requirements, but to reduce future escapes. Implicit is the assumption that a review leads to learning. Yet, as organizational learning expert...

A synoptic climatology for forest fires in the NE US and future implications for GCM simulations

Treesearch

Yan Qing; Ronald Sabo; Yiqiang Wu; J.Y. Zhu

1994-01-01

We studied surface-pressure patterns corresponding to reduced precipitation, high evaporation potential, and enhanced forest-fire danger for West Virginia, which experienced extensive forest-fire damage in November 1987. From five years of daily weather maps we identified eight weather patterns that describe distinctive flow situations throughout the year. Map patterns...

Fire and avian ecology in North America: Process influencing pattern

Treesearch

Victoria A. Saab; Hugh D. W. Powell

2005-01-01

We summarize the findings from 10 subsequent chapters that collectively review fire and avian ecology across 40 North American ecosystems. We highlight patterns and future research topics that recur among the chapters. Vegetation types with long fire-return intervals, such as boreal forests of Canada, forests at high elevations, and those in the humid Pacific Northwest...

Prescribed fire and oak seedling development in an Appalachian forest

Treesearch

Jacob Royse; Mary Arthur; David Loftis

2009-01-01

In recent decades considerable research has focused on the use of prescribed fire in oak-dominated forests with the management objective of promoting oak regeneration for future overstory dominance. These studies typically focus on the response of oak seedlings and saplings already in place when experimental prescribed fires are set because it is difficult to time...

Final Report on the Development of the Long Beach Fire Department Company Officer Orientation Program.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rupe, Marvin L.; And Others

The Long Beach Fire Department (California), developed a program to foster and improve the development of future fire department managers who are promoted from within the department. A 10-day orientation program was developed. The competency-based program featured a mix of management-leadership training (the nature of leadership, personnel…

Fire metrology: Current and future directions in physics-based measurements

Treesearch

Robert L. Kremens; Alistair M.S. Smith; Matthew B. Dickinson

2010-01-01

The robust evaluation of fire impacts on the biota, soil, and atmosphere requires measurement and analysis methods that can characterize combustion processes across a range of temporal and spatial scales. Numerous challenges are apparent in the literature. These challenges have led to novel research to quantify the 1) structure and heterogeneity of the pre-fire...

Proceedings of the symposium on fire and watershed management

Treesearch

Neil H. Berg

1989-01-01

Wildfires have affected the landscape since the dawn of time and will continue to do so for the foreseeable future. Policies and practices in response to fire have varied, however, contingent upon a complex mix of values and attitudes overlaid by the technical acumen available to both "fight" the fire and reclaim the land afterwards.

Spatial and Temporal Variability and Trends in 2001-2016 Global Fire Activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Earl, Nick; Simmonds, Ian

2018-03-01

Fire regimes across the globe have great spatial and temporal variability, and these are influence by many factors including anthropogenic management, climate, and vegetation types. Here we utilize the satellite-based "active fire" product, from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensors, to statistically analyze variability and trends in fire activity from the global to regional scales. We split up the regions by economic development, region/geographical land use, clusters of fire-abundant areas, or by religious/cultural influence. Weekly cycle tests are conducted to highlight and quantify part of the anthropogenic influence on fire regime across the world. We find that there is a strong statistically significant decline in 2001-2016 active fires globally linked to an increase in net primary productivity observed in northern Africa, along with global agricultural expansion and intensification, which generally reduces fire activity. There are high levels of variability, however. The large-scale regions exhibit either little change or decreasing in fire activity except for strong increasing trends in India and China, where rapid population increase is occurring, leading to agricultural intensification and increased crop residue burning. Variability in Canada has been linked to a warming global climate leading to a longer growing season and higher fuel loads. Areas with a strong weekly cycle give a good indication of where fire management is being applied most extensively, for example, the United States, where few areas retain a natural fire regime.

Frozen Nature - A high-alpine ice core record reveals fire and vegetation dynamics in Western Europe over the past millennium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brügger, S.; Gobet, E.; Sigl, M.; Osmont, D.; Schwikowski, M.; Tinner, W.

2017-12-01

Wild fires are an ecological disturbance agent across ecosystems, driving vegetation dynamics and resulting in disruption of habitats (Moritz et al. 2014).We analyze pollen and spores as proxies for vegetation composition, structure and agricultural activity, microscopic charcoal as a proxy for fire activity, and spheroidal carbonaceous particles (SCPs or soots) as a proxy for fossil fuel combustion which preserve in ice cores over millennia (Eichler et al. 2011).Our high-alpine ice core (4452 m a.s.l.) from Colle Gnifetti, Swiss Alps is located in the center of Western Europe, thus allowing to assess vegetation and societal responses to climatic change and wildfire disturbance on a subcontinental scale. The record covers the last millennium with an excellent chronological control (Jenk et al. 2009, Sigl et al. 2009), particularly over the most recent 200 years - the period that experienced important climatic changes and an increasing globalization of economy.The Colle Gnifetti record reflects large scale impacts such as extreme weather, societal innovations, agricultural crises and pollution of the industrial period in Western Europe. Pollution tracers occur in the record as early as 1750 AD and coincide with the shift to large-scale maize production in Northern Italy and with increased fire activity. Our multiproxy record may allow desentagling the role of climate and humans for vegetation composition and biomass burning. The attribution of causes may significantly advance our understanding of future vegetation and fire dynamics under global change conditions. To our knowledge we present the first long-term high-resolution palynological record of a high elevation ice core in Europe.REFERENCESEichler et al. (2011): An ice-core based history of Siberian forest fires since AD 1250. Quaternary Science Reviews, 30(9), 1027-1034.Jenk et al. (2009): A novel radiocarbon dating technique applied to an ice core from the Alps indicating late Pleistocene ages. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 114(D14).Moritz et al. (2014): Learning to coexist with wildfire. Nature, 515(7525), 58-66.Sigl et al. (2009): Towards radiocarbon dating of ice cores. Journal of Glaciology, 55(194), 985-996.

Wildland fire management and air quality in the southern Sierra Nevada: using the Lion Fire as a case study with a multi-year perspective on PM(2.5) impacts and fire policy.

PubMed

Schweizer, Don; Cisneros, Ricardo

2014-11-01

Management of fire is an important and controversial policy issue. Active fire suppression has led to a backlog of fuels, limited the ecological benefits of fire, and reduced short-term smoke impacts likely delaying these emissions to future generations over a larger spatial extent. Smoke impacts can be expected to increase as fire size and intensity increase and the fuel backlog is consumed; whether through reintroduction of fire under desirable conditions or through stand replacing fire. Land Management Agencies would like to increase the use of naturally ignited fires to burn during favorable conditions as a way to reduce catastrophic fires. This study provides information about the levels of air quality impacts expected from these types of fires and discusses some of the policy controversies of managed fire that propagate inconsistencies between agencies and enter the public discourse. The Lion Fire, a primarily low intensity 8,370 ha fire that was extensively monitored for Particulate Matter less than 2.5 microns (PM2.5), is used to quantify impacts to air quality. PM2.5 monitoring sites are used to assess exposure, public health impacts, and subsequently quantify annual air quality during a year with a fire that is within the historic normal fire size and intensity for this area. Ground level PM2.5 impacts were found to be localized with 99% of the hourly Air Quality Index readings in the moderate or good category for the sites impacted by the fire. PM2.5 concentrations at sites nearest the fire were below annual federal air quality standards for PM2.5 with annual 98th percentile at the most impacted sites (Johnsondale, Kernville, and Camp Nelson) of 35.0, 34.0, and 28.0 μg m(-3) respectively. Smoke impacts to PM2.5 concentrations were not found to reach the populated Central Valley. The findings suggest that this type of fire can be implemented with minimal public health impacts thus allowing an opportunity for air and fire managers to alter policy to allow additional burning in an area with severe anthropogenic air pollution and where frequent widespread fire is both beneficial and inevitable. The more extensive air quality impacts documented with large high intensity fire may be averted by embracing the use of fire to prevent unwanted high intensity burns. A widespread increase in the use of fire for ecological benefit may provide the resiliency needed in Sierra Nevada forests as well as be the most beneficial to public health through the reduction of single dose exposure to smoke and limiting impacts spatially. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Quantifying changes in total and pyrogenic carbon stocks across fire severity gradients using active wildfire incidents

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miesel, Jessica; Reiner, Alicia; Ewell, Carol; Maestrini, Bernardo; Dickinson, Matthew

2018-05-01

Positive feedbacks between wildfire emissions and climate are expected to increase in strength in the future; however, fires not only release carbon (C) from terrestrial to atmospheric pools, they also produce pyrogenic C (PyC) which contributes to longer-term C stability. Our objective was to quantify wildfire impacts on total C and PyC stocks in California mixed-conifer forest, and to investigate relationships between C and PyC stocks and changes across gradients of fire severity, using metrics derived from remote sensing and field observations. Our unique study accessed active wildfires to establish and measure plots within days before and after fire, prior to substantial erosion. We measured pre- and post-fire aboveground forest structure and woody fuels to calculate aboveground biomass, C and PyC, and collected forest floor and 0-5 cm mineral soil samples. Tree mortality increased with severity, but overstory C loss was minimal and limited primarily to foliage. Fire released 85% of understory and herbaceous C (comprising <1.0% of total ecosystem C). The greatest C losses occurred from downed wood and forest floor pools (19.3±5.1 Mg ha-1 and 25.9±3.2 Mg ha-1, respectively). Tree bark and downed wood contributed the greatest PyC gains (1.5±0.3 Mg ha-1 and 1.9±0.8 Mg ha-1, respectively), and PyC in tree bark showed non-significant positive trends with increasing severity. Overall PyC losses of 1.9±0.3 Mg ha-1 and 0.5±0.1 Mg ha-1 occurred from forest floor and 0-5 cm mineral soil, with no clear patterns across severity. Fire resulted in a net ecosystem PyC gain (0.96±0.98 Mg ha-1) across aboveground and belowground components of these forests, and there were no differences among severity levels. Carbon emissions represented only 21.6% of total forest C; however, extensive conversion of C from live to dead pools will contribute to large downed wood C pools susceptible to release in a subsequent fire, indicating that there may be a delayed relationship between fire severity and C emissions. This research advances understanding of forest C loss and stabilization as PyC in wildfires; however, poor relationships between C and PyC gains or losses and fire severity highlight the complexity of fire impacts on forest C.

The response of vegetation distribution, ecosystem productivity, and fire in California to future climate scenarios simulated by the MC1 dynamic vegetation dynamic.

Treesearch

James M. Lenihan; Dominique Bachelet; Raymond Drapek; Ronald P. Neilson

2006-01-01

The objective of this study was to dynamically simulate the response of vegetation distribution, carbon, and fire to three scenarios of future climate change for California using the MAPSS-CENTURY (MCI) dynamic general vegetation model. Under all three scenarios, Alpine/Subalpine Forest cover declined with increased growing season length and warmth, and increases in...

Fire Safety in the Low-Gravity Spacecraft Environment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Friedman, Robert

1999-01-01

Research in microgravity (low-gravity) combustion promises innovations and improvements in fire prevention and response for human-crew spacecraft. Findings indicate that material flammability and fire spread in microgravity are significantly affected by atmospheric flow rate, oxygen concentration, and diluent composition. This information can lead to modifications and correlations to standard material-assessment tests for prediction of fire resistance in space. Research on smoke-particle changes in microgravity promises future improvements and increased sensitivity of smoke detectors in spacecraft. Research on fire suppression by extinguishing agents and venting can yield new information on effective control of the rare, but serious fire events in spacecraft.

Climate change effects on wildland fire risk in the Northeastern and Great Lakes states predicted by a downscaled multi-model ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kerr, Gaige Hunter; DeGaetano, Arthur T.; Stoof, Cathelijne R.; Ward, Daniel

2018-01-01

This study is among the first to investigate wildland fire risk in the Northeastern and the Great Lakes states under a changing climate. We use a multi-model ensemble (MME) of regional climate models from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) together with the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System (CFFWIS) to understand changes in wildland fire risk through differences between historical simulations and future projections. Our results are relatively homogeneous across the focus region and indicate modest increases in the magnitude of fire weather indices (FWIs) during northern hemisphere summer. The most pronounced changes occur in the date of the initialization of CFFWIS and peak of the wildland fire season, which in the future are trending earlier in the year, and in the significant increases in the length of high-risk episodes, defined by the number of consecutive days with FWIs above the current 95th percentile. Further analyses show that these changes are most closely linked to expected changes in the focus region's temperature and precipitation. These findings relate to the current understanding of particulate matter vis-à-vis wildfires and have implications for human health and local and regional changes in radiative forcings. When considering current fire management strategies which could be challenged by increasing wildland fire risk, fire management agencies could adapt new strategies to improve awareness, prevention, and resilience to mitigate potential impacts to critical infrastructure and population.

Fire Effects at the Tundra-Boreal Ecotone in Interior Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Howard, B. K.; Mack, M. C.; Johnstone, J. F.; Walker, X. J.; Roland, C.

2016-12-01

Climate warming in northern latitudes has led to an intensification of disturbance by wildfire. Little is known about the effects of fire on tundra vegetation. Changes in vegetation composition could have important implications for carbon cycling , and may feedback positively or negatively to future climate change (Randerson et al., 2006). Our study utilizes extensive pre-fire ecological data collected by the National Park Service (NPS) Inventory and Monitoring (I&M) program to assess the prefire conditions important in driving successional pathways within Denali National Park and Preserve. In 2013, the East Toklat fire burned 30,000 acres of tussock tundra and mixed white and black spruce forest at a high severity, which encompassed 50 NPS plots that were originally monitored in 2003. Our sampling occurred the summer of 2016 following the same NPS protocols to assess post-fire vegetation composition. In addition, we conducted a seeding experiment using locally collected white and black spruce seed to assess natural and potential tree regeneration in unburned and post fire environments. Seed traps were established along our transects to assess seed rain. A multivariate approach will be used to assess post-fire community dynamics and future field seasons will address tree germination and survival rates. These data will then be coupled with pre and post-fire ecological data to parse out important factors driving secondary succession.

Factor contribution to fire occurrence, size, and burn probability in a subtropical coniferous forest in East China.

PubMed

Ye, Tao; Wang, Yao; Guo, Zhixing; Li, Yijia

2017-01-01

The contribution of factors including fuel type, fire-weather conditions, topography and human activity to fire regime attributes (e.g. fire occurrence, size distribution and severity) has been intensively discussed. The relative importance of those factors in explaining the burn probability (BP), which is critical in terms of fire risk management, has been insufficiently addressed. Focusing on a subtropical coniferous forest with strong human disturbance in East China, our main objective was to evaluate and compare the relative importance of fuel composition, topography, and human activity for fire occurrence, size and BP. Local BP distribution was derived with stochastic fire simulation approach using detailed historical fire data (1990-2010) and forest-resource survey results, based on which our factor contribution analysis was carried out. Our results indicated that fuel composition had the greatest relative importance in explaining fire occurrence and size, but human activity explained most of the variance in BP. This implies that the influence of human activity is amplified through the process of overlapping repeated ignition and spreading events. This result emphasizes the status of strong human disturbance in local fire processes. It further confirms the need for a holistic perspective on factor contribution to fire likelihood, rather than focusing on individual fire regime attributes, for the purpose of fire risk management.

Analysis of weather condition influencing fire regime in Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bacciu, Valentina; Masala, Francesco; Salis, Michele; Sirca, Costantino; Spano, Donatella

2014-05-01

Fires have a crucial role within Mediterranean ecosystems, with both negative and positive impacts on all biosphere components and with reverberations on different scales. Fire determines the landscape structure and plant composition, but it is also the cause of enormous economic and ecological damages, beside the loss of human life. In addition, several authors are in agreement suggesting that, during the past decades, changes on fire patterns have occurred, especially in terms of fire-prone areas expansion and fire season lengthening. Climate and weather are two of the main controlling agents, directly and indirectly, of fire regime influencing vegetation productivity, causing water stress, igniting fires through lightning, or modulating fire behavior through wind. On the other hand, these relationships could be not warranted in areas where most ignitions are caused by people (Moreno et al. 2009). Specific analyses of the driving forces of fire regime across countries and scales are thus still required in order to better anticipate fire seasons and also to advance our knowledge of future fire regimes. The objective of this work was to improve our knowledge of the relative effects of several weather variables on forest fires in Italy for the period 1985-2008. Meteorological data were obtained through the MARS (Monitoring Agricultural Resources) database, interpolated at 25x25 km scale. Fire data were provided by the JRC (Join Research Center) and the CFVA (Corpo Forestale e di Vigilanza Ambientale, Sardinia). A hierarchical cluster analysis, based on fire and weather data, allowed the identification of six homogeneous areas in terms of fire occurrence and climate (pyro-climatic areas). Two statistical techniques (linear and non-parametric models) were applied in order to assess if inter-annual variability in weather pattern and fire events had a significant trend. Then, through correlation analysis and multi-linear regression modeling, we investigated the influence of weather variables on fire activity across a range of time- and spatial-scales. The analysis revealed a general decrease of both number of fires and burned area, although not everywhere with the same magnitude. Overall, regression models where highly significant (p<0.001), and the explained variance ranged from 36% to 80% for fire number and from 37% to 76% for burned area, depending on pyro-climatic area. Moreover, our results contributed in determining the relative importance of climate variables acting at different timescales as control on intrinsic (i.e. flammability and moisture) and extrinsic (i.e. fuel amount and structure) characteristics of vegetation, thus strongly influencing fire occurrence. The good performance of our models, especially in the most fire affected pyro-climatic areas of Italy, and the better understanding of the main driver of fire variability gained through this work could be of great help for fire management among the different pyro-climatic areas.

Counting the cost of false alarms.

PubMed

2013-05-01

While fire and rescue service personnel, the Government, those responsible for fire safety in the healthcare sector, the Health and Safety Executive, fire and rescue services, and indeed fire alarm and detection equipment manufacturers, must be pleased that the number of false fire alarms continues to fall, fire services still attended just under 585,000 fires or false alarm incidents across Great Britain in 2011/12. Of this total, 272,000 were actual fires, of which around 24,000 were in premises classified by the Department for Communities and Local Government (DCLG) as 'other buildings', i.e. not 'dwellings', a category that includes healthcare facilities (representing a 4% fall on 2010-2011). HEJ looks behind the statistics, and at the possibility that some fire services could, in future, charge healthcare providers that persistently report incidents that turn out to be false alarms.

Fire behavior and risk analysis in spacecraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Friedman, Robert; Sacksteder, Kurt R.

1988-01-01

Practical risk management for present and future spacecraft, including space stations, involves the optimization of residual risks balanced by the spacecraft operational, technological, and economic limitations. Spacecraft fire safety is approached through three strategies, in order of risk: (1) control of fire-causing elements, through exclusion of flammable materials for example; (2) response to incipient fires through detection and alarm; and (3) recovery of normal conditions through extinguishment and cleanup. Present understanding of combustion in low gravity is that, compared to normal gravity behavior, fire hazards may be reduced by the absence of buoyant gas flows yet at the same time increased by ventilation flows and hot particle expulsion. This paper discusses the application of low-gravity combustion knowledge and appropriate aircraft analogies to fire detection, fire fighting, and fire-safety decisions for eventual fire-risk management and optimization in spacecraft.

Climate change and the eco-hydrology of fire: Will area burned increase in a warming western USA?

USGS Publications Warehouse

McKenzie, Donald; Littell, Jeremy

2017-01-01

Wildfire area is predicted to increase with global warming. Empirical statistical models and process-based simulations agree almost universally. The key relationship for this unanimity, observed at multiple spatial and temporal scales, is between drought and fire. Predictive models often focus on ecosystems in which this relationship appears to be particularly strong, such as mesic and arid forests and shrublands with substantial biomass such as chaparral. We examine the drought–fire relationship, specifically the correlations between water-balance deficit and annual area burned, across the full gradient of deficit in the western USA, from temperate rainforest to desert. In the middle of this gradient, conditional on vegetation (fuels), correlations are strong, but outside this range the equivalence hotter and drier equals more fire either breaks down or is contingent on other factors such as previous-year climate. This suggests that the regional drought–fire dynamic will not be stationary in future climate, nor will other more complex contingencies associated with the variation in fire extent. Predictions of future wildfire area therefore need to consider not only vegetation changes, as some dynamic vegetation models now do, but also potential changes in the drought–fire dynamic that will ensue in a warming climate.

Climate change and the eco-hydrology of fire: Will area burned increase in a warming western USA?

PubMed

McKenzie, Donald; Littell, Jeremy S

2017-01-01

Wildfire area is predicted to increase with global warming. Empirical statistical models and process-based simulations agree almost universally. The key relationship for this unanimity, observed at multiple spatial and temporal scales, is between drought and fire. Predictive models often focus on ecosystems in which this relationship appears to be particularly strong, such as mesic and arid forests and shrublands with substantial biomass such as chaparral. We examine the drought-fire relationship, specifically the correlations between water-balance deficit and annual area burned, across the full gradient of deficit in the western USA, from temperate rainforest to desert. In the middle of this gradient, conditional on vegetation (fuels), correlations are strong, but outside this range the equivalence hotter and drier equals more fire either breaks down or is contingent on other factors such as previous-year climate. This suggests that the regional drought-fire dynamic will not be stationary in future climate, nor will other more complex contingencies associated with the variation in fire extent. Predictions of future wildfire area therefore need to consider not only vegetation changes, as some dynamic vegetation models now do, but also potential changes in the drought-fire dynamic that will ensue in a warming climate. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Wildfire atlas of the northeastern and north central states.

Treesearch

Donald A. Haines; Von J. Johnson; William A. Main

1975-01-01

Describes patterns of forest fire activity across the northeastern and north central United States. Gives average dates of greening ad curing of herbaceous plants, medium size of fires in various fuels, and annual profiles of peak fire activity. It also examines combinations of major fire cause and day-of-week activity.

Fire-climate-human interactions during the postglacial period at Sunrise Ridge, Mount Rainier National Park, Washington (USA)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walsh, Megan K.; Lukens, Michael L.; McCutcheon, Patrick T.; Burtchard, Greg C.

2017-12-01

With the creation of Mount Rainier National Park (MORA) in 1899 came the active management of the park's landscapes and a heavy emphasis on fire suppression. Today, managers at MORA seek to better manage current fire activity; however, this requires an improved understanding of past fire activity on the mountain. In this study high-resolution macroscopic charcoal analysis and pollen analysis of lake sediment records was used to reconstruct the postglacial fire and vegetation history for the Sunrise Ridge area of MORA. Fire activity was lowest during the Late Glacial when vegetation was sparse and climate was cool and dry. Fire activity increased during the early Holocene as the regional climate warmed and dried, and burnable biomass became more abundant. Fire activity continued to increase into the middle Holocene (until ca. 6600 cal yr BP) even as the regional climate became wetter and eventually cooler; the modern-day mesic forest and subalpine meadow landscapes of the park established at this time. Fire activity was generally highest and mean fire return intervals were lowest on Sunrise Ridge during the late Holocene, and are consistent with tree-ring based estimates of fire frequency. The similarity between the Sunrise Ridge and other paleofire records in the Pacific Northwest suggests that broad-scale climatic shifts, such as the retreat of the Cordilleran ice sheet and changes in annual insolation, as well as increased interannual climate variability (i.e., drought) particularly in the middle to late Holocene, were responsible for changes in fire activity during the postglacial period. However, abundant and increasing archaeological evidence from Sunrise Ridge during the middle to late Holocene suggests that humans may have also influenced the landscape at this time. It is likely that fires will continue to increase at MORA as drought becomes a more frequent occurrence in the Pacific Northwest.

Grand challenges in developing a predictive understanding of global fire dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Randerson, J. T.; Chen, Y.; Wiggins, E. B.; Andela, N.; Morton, D. C.; Veraverbeke, S.; van der Werf, G.

2017-12-01

High quality satellite observations of burned area and fire thermal anomalies over the past two decades have transformed our understanding of climate, ecosystem, and human controls on the spatial and temporal distribution of landscape fires. The satellite observations provide evidence for a rapid and widespread loss of fire from grassland and savanna ecosystems worldwide. Continued expansion of industrial agriculture suggests that observed declines in global burned area are likely to continue in future decades, with profound consequences for ecosystem function and the habitat of many endangered species. Satellite time series also highlight the importance of El Niño-Southern Oscillation and other climate modes as drivers of interannual variability. In many regions, lead times between climate indices and fire activity are considerable, enabling the development of early warning prediction systems for fire season severity. With the recent availability of high-resolution observations from Suomi NPP, Landsat 8, and Sentinel 2, the field of global fire ecology is poised to make even more significant breakthroughs over the next decade. With these new observations, it may be possible to reduce uncertainties in the spatial pattern of burned area by several fold. It is difficult to overstate the importance of these new data constraints for improving our understanding of fire impacts on human health and radiative forcing of climate change. A key research challenge in this context is to understand how the loss of global burned area will affect magnitude of the terrestrial carbon sink and trends in atmospheric composition. Advances in prognostic fire modeling will require new approaches linking agriculture with landscape fire dynamics. A critical need in this context is the development of predictive models of road networks and other drivers of land fragmentation, and a closer integration of fragmentation information with algorithms predicting fire spread. Concurrently, a better representation of the influence of livestock on fuels and fire management is essential for modeling long-term trends. In northern ecosystems, climate-driven changes in lightning ignition may accelerate the northward migration of boreal forests into arctic tundra, increasing the vulnerability of permafrost carbon.

Projecting climate-driven increases in North American fire activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, D.; Morton, D. C.; Collatz, G. J.

2013-12-01

Climate regulates fire activity through controls on vegetation productivity (fuels), lightning ignitions, and conditions governing fire spread. In many regions of the world, human management also influences the timing, duration, and extent of fire activity. These coupled interactions between human and natural systems make fire a complex component of the Earth system. Satellite data provide valuable information on the spatial and temporal dynamics of recent fire activity, as active fires, burned area, and land cover information can be combined to separate wildfires from intentional burning for agriculture and forestry. Here, we combined satellite-derived burned area data with land cover and climate data to assess fire-climate relationships in North America between 2000-2012. We used the latest versions of the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED) burned area product and Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) climate data to develop regional relationships between burned area and potential evaporation (PE), an integrated dryness metric. Logistic regression models were developed to link burned area with PE and individual climate variables during and preceding the fire season, and optimal models were selected based on Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). Overall, our model explained 85% of the variance in burned area since 2000 across North America. Fire-climate relationships from the era of satellite observations provide a blueprint for potential changes in fire activity under scenarios of climate change. We used that blueprint to evaluate potential changes in fire activity over the next 50 years based on twenty models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). All models suggest an increase of PE under low and high emissions scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5, respectively), with largest increases in projected burned area across the western US and central Canada. Overall, near-term climate projections point to pronounced changes in fire season length, total burned area, and the frequency of extreme events across North America by 2050.

Climatic and anthropogenic drivers of northern Amazon fires during the 2015-2016 El Niño event.

PubMed

Fonseca, Marisa G; Anderson, Liana O; Arai, Egidio; Shimabukuro, Yosio E; Xaud, Haron A M; Xaud, Maristela R; Madani, Nima; Wagner, Fabien H; Aragão, Luiz E O C

2017-12-01

The strong El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event that occurred in 2015-2016 caused extreme drought in the northern Brazilian Amazon, especially in the state of Roraima, increasing fire occurrence. Here we map the extent of precipitation and fire anomalies and quantify the effects of climatic and anthropogenic drivers on fire occurrence during the 2015-2016 dry season (from December 2015 to March 2016) in the state of Roraima. To achieve these objectives we first estimated the spatial pattern of precipitation anomalies, based on long-term data from the TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission), and the fire anomaly, based on MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) active fire detections during the referred period. Then, we integrated climatic and anthropogenic drivers in a Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model to quantify fire probability, assessing (1) the model accuracy during the 2015-2016 and the 2016-2017 dry seasons; (2) the relative importance of each predictor variable on the model predictive performance; and (3) the response curves, showing how each environmental variable affects the fire probability. Approximately 59% (132,900 km 2 ) of the study area was exposed to precipitation anomalies ≤-1 standard deviation (SD) in January and ~48% (~106,800 km 2 ) in March. About 38% (86,200 km 2 ) of the study area experienced fire anomalies ≥1 SD in at least one month between December 2015 and March 2016. The distance to roads and the direct ENSO effect on fire occurrence were the two most influential variables on model predictive performance. Despite the improvement of governmental actions of fire prevention and firefighting in Roraima since the last intense ENSO event (1997-1998), we show that fire still gets out of control in the state during extreme drought events. Our results indicate that if no prevention actions are undertaken, future road network expansion and a climate-induced increase in water stress will amplify fire occurrence in the northern Amazon, even in its humid dense forests. As an additional outcome of our analysis, we conclude that the model and the data we used may help to guide on-the-ground fire-prevention actions and firefighting planning and therefore minimize fire-related ecosystems degradation, economic losses and carbon emissions in Roraima. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

Synoptic circulation and temperature pattern during severe wildland fires

Treesearch

Warren E. Heilman

1996-01-01

Large-scale changes in the atmosphere associated with a globally changed climate and changes in climatic variability may have important regional impacts on the frequency and severity of wildland fires in the future.

Fire behavior, fuel treatments, and fire suppression on the Hayman Fire - Part 5: Fire suppression activities

Treesearch

Charles W. McHugh; Paul Gleason

2003-01-01

The purpose of this report is to document the suppression actions taken during the Hayman Fire. The long duration of suppression activities (June 8 through July 18), and multiple incident management teams assigned to the fire, makes this a challenging task. Original records and reports produced independently by the various teams assigned to different portions of the...

Active fire detection using a peat fire radiance model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kushida, K.; Honma, T.; Kaku, K.; Fukuda, M.

2011-12-01

The fire fractional area and radiances at 4 and 11 μm of active fires in Indonesia were estimated using Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) images. Based on these fire information, a stochastic fire model was used for evaluating two fire detection algorithms of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). One is single-image stochastic fire detection, and the other is multitemporal stochastic fire detection (Kushida, 2010 - IEEE Geosci. Remote Sens. Lett.). The average fire fractional area per one 1 km2 ×1 km2 pixel was 1.7%; this value corresponds to 32% of that of Siberian and Mongolian boreal forest fires. The average radiances at 4 and 11 μm of active fires were 7.2 W/(m2.sr.μm) and 11.1 W/(m2.sr.μm); these values correspond to 47% and 91% of those of Siberian and Mongolian boreal forest fires, respectively. In order to get false alarms less than 20 points per 106 km2 area, for the Siberian and Mongolian boreal forest fires, omission errors (OE) of 50-60% and about 40% were expected for the detections by using the single and multitemporal images, respectively. For Indonesian peat fires, OE of 80-90% was expected for the detections by using the single images. For the peat-fire detections by using the multitemporal images, OE of about 40% was expected, provided that the background radiances were estimated from past multitemporal images with less than the standard deviation of 1K. The analyses indicated that it was difficult to obtain sufficient active-fire information of Indonesian peat fires from single MODIS images for the fire fighting, and that the use of the multitemporal images was important.

Modeling place field activity with hierarchical slow feature analysis

PubMed Central

Schönfeld, Fabian; Wiskott, Laurenz

2015-01-01

What are the computational laws of hippocampal activity? In this paper we argue for the slowness principle as a fundamental processing paradigm behind hippocampal place cell firing. We present six different studies from the experimental literature, performed with real-life rats, that we replicated in computer simulations. Each of the chosen studies allows rodents to develop stable place fields and then examines a distinct property of the established spatial encoding: adaptation to cue relocation and removal; directional dependent firing in the linear track and open field; and morphing and scaling the environment itself. Simulations are based on a hierarchical Slow Feature Analysis (SFA) network topped by a principal component analysis (ICA) output layer. The slowness principle is shown to account for the main findings of the presented experimental studies. The SFA network generates its responses using raw visual input only, which adds to its biological plausibility but requires experiments performed in light conditions. Future iterations of the model will thus have to incorporate additional information, such as path integration and grid cell activity, in order to be able to also replicate studies that take place during darkness. PMID:26052279

Fire deaths in aircraft without the crashworthy fuel system.

PubMed

Springate, C S; McMeekin, R R; Ruehle, C J

1989-10-01

Cases reported to the Armed Forces Institute of Pathology were examined for occupants of helicopters without the crashworthy fuel system (CWFS) who survived crashes but died as a result of postcrash fires. There were 16 fire deaths in the 9 such accidents which occurred between January 1976 and April 1984. All of these victims would have survived if there had been no postcrash fire. Partial body destruction by fire probably prevented inclusion of many other cases. The dramatic reduction in fire deaths and injuries due to installation of the CWFS in Army helicopters is discussed. The author concludes that fire deaths and injuries in aircraft accidents could almost be eliminated by fitting current and future aircraft with the CWFS.

Drought, tree mortality, and wildfire in forests adapted to frequent fire

Treesearch

Scott L Stephens; Brandon M Collins; Christopher J Fettig; Mark A Finney; Chad M Hoffman; Eric E Knapp; Malcolm P North; Hugh Safford; Rebecca B Wayman

2018-01-01

Massive tree mortality has occurred rapidly in frequent-fire-adapted forests of the Sierra Nevada, California. This mortality is a product of acute drought compounded by the long-established removal of a key ecosystem process: frequent, low- to moderate-intensity fire. The recent tree mortality has many implications for the future of these forests and the ecological...

Using fire to increase the scale, benefits and future maintenance of fuels treatments

Treesearch

Malcolm P. North; Brandon M. Collins; Scott L Stephens

2012-01-01

The Forest Service is implementing a new planning rule and starting to revise forest plans for many of the 155 National Forests. In forests that historically had frequent fire regimes, the scale of current fuels reduction treatments has often been too limited to affect fire severity and the Forest Service has predominantly focused on suppression. In addition to...

Proceedings of the symposium on wildland fire 2000; April 27-30, 1987; South Lake Tahoe, California

Treesearch

James B. Davis; Robert E. Martin

1987-01-01

This "futuring" symposium addressed the possible, preferred, and probable status of wildland fire management and research in the year 2000 and beyond. Papers cover the fire protection needs of the public, management response to these perceived needs, and the research and education required to meet these needs. Also covered in a separate section are the...

Influences of prior wildfires on vegetation response to subsequent fire in a reburned Southwestern landscape.

PubMed

Coop, Jonathan D; Parks, Sean A; McClernan, Sarah R; Holsinger, Lisa M

2016-03-01

Large and severe wildfires have raised concerns about the future of forested landscapes in the southwestern United States, especially under repeated burning. In 2011, under extreme weather and drought conditions, the Las Conchas fire burned over several previous burns as well as forests not recently exposed to fire. Our purpose was to examine the influences of prior wildfires on plant community composition and structure, subsequent burn severity, and vegetation response. To assess these relationships, we used satellite-derived measures of burn severity and a nonmetric multidimensional scaling of pre- and post- Las Conchas field samples. Earlier burns were associated with shifts from forested sites to open savannas and meadows, oak scrub, and ruderal communities. These non-forested vegetation types exhibited both resistance to subsequent fire, measured by reduced burn severity, and resilience to reburning, measured by vegetation recovery relative to forests not exposed to recent prior fire. Previous shifts toward non-forested states were strongly reinforced by reburning. Ongoing losses of forests and their ecological values confirm the need for restoration interventions. However, given future wildfire and climate projections, there may also be opportunities presented by transformations toward fire-resistant and resilient vegetation types within portions of the landscape.

Landscape variation in tree regeneration and snag fall drive fuel loads in 24-year old post-fire lodgepole pine forests.

PubMed

Nelson, Kellen N; Turner, Monica G; Romme, William H; Tinker, Daniel B

2016-12-01

Escalating wildfire in subalpine forests with stand-replacing fire regimes is increasing the extent of early-seral forests throughout the western USA. Post-fire succession generates the fuel for future fires, but little is known about fuel loads and their variability in young post-fire stands. We sampled fuel profiles in 24-year-old post-fire lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta var. latifolia) stands (n = 82) that regenerated from the 1988 Yellowstone Fires to answer three questions. (1) How do canopy and surface fuel loads vary within and among young lodgepole pine stands? (2) How do canopy and surface fuels vary with pre- and post-fire lodgepole pine stand structure and environmental conditions? (3) How have surface fuels changed between eight and 24 years post-fire? Fuel complexes varied tremendously across the landscape despite having regenerated from the same fires. Available canopy fuel loads and canopy bulk density averaged 8.5 Mg/ha (range 0.0-46.6) and 0.24 kg/m 3 (range: 0.0-2.3), respectively, meeting or exceeding levels in mature lodgepole pine forests. Total surface-fuel loads averaged 123 Mg/ha (range: 43-207), and 88% was in the 1,000-h fuel class. Litter, 1-h, and 10-h surface fuel loads were lower than reported for mature lodgepole pine forests, and 1,000-h fuel loads were similar or greater. Among-plot variation was greater in canopy fuels than surface fuels, and within-plot variation was greater than among-plot variation for nearly all fuels. Post-fire lodgepole pine density was the strongest positive predictor of canopy and fine surface fuel loads. Pre-fire successional stage was the best predictor of 100-h and 1,000-h fuel loads in the post-fire stands and strongly influenced the size and proportion of sound logs (greater when late successional stands had burned) and rotten logs (greater when early successional stands had burned). Our data suggest that 76% of the young post-fire lodgepole pine forests have 1,000-h fuel loads that exceed levels associated with high-severity surface fire potential, and 63% exceed levels associated with active crown fire potential. Fire rotations in Yellowstone National Park are predicted to shorten to a few decades and this prediction cannot be ruled out by a lack of fuels to carry repeated fires. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Chapter 14: Effects of fire suppression and postfire management activities on plant invasions

Treesearch

Matthew L. Brooks

2008-01-01

This chapter explains how various fire suppression and postfire management activities can increase or decrease the potential for plant invasions following fire. A conceptual model is used to summarize the basic processes associated with plant invasions and show how specific fire management activities can be designed to minimize the potential for invasion. The...

Green Monopropellant Status at Marshall Space Flight Center

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Burnside, Christopher G.; Pierce, Charles W.; Pedersen, Kevin W.

2016-01-01

NASA Marshall Space Flight Center is continuing investigations into the use of green monopropellants as a replacement for hydrazine in spacecraft propulsion systems. Work to date has been to push technology development through multiple activities designed to understand the capabilities of these technologies. Future work will begin to transition to mission pull as these technologies are mature while still keeping a solid goal of pushing technology development as opportunities become available. The AF-M315E activities began with hot-fire demonstration testing of a 1N monopropellant thruster in FY 14 and FY15. Following successful completion of the preliminary campaign, changes to the test stand to accommodate propellant conditioning capability and better control of propellant operations was incorporated to make testing more streamlined. The goal is to conduct hot-fire testing with warm and cold propellants using the existing feed system and original thruster design. Following the 1N testing, a NASA owned 100 mN thruster will be hot-fire tested in the same facility to show feasibility of scaling to smaller thrusters for cubesat applications. The end goal is to conduct a hot-fire test of an integrated cubesat propulsion system using an SLM printed propellant tank, an MSFC designed propulsion system electronic controller and the 100 mN thruster. In addition to the AF-M315E testing, MSFC is pursuing hot-fire testing with LMP-103S. Following our successful hot-fire testing of the 22N thruster in April 2015, a test campaign was proposed for a 440N LMP-103S thruster with Orbital ATK and Plasma Processes. This activity was funded through the Space Technology Mission Directorate (STMD) ACO funding call in the last quarter of CY15. Under the same funding source a test activity with Busek and Glenn Research Center for testing of 5N AF-M315E thrusters was proposed and awarded. Both activities are in-work with expected completion of hot-fire testing by the end of FY17. MSFC is continuing to coordinate with the AF and academia on understanding the chemical reactions that occur in AF-M315E. An on-going investigation of the catalyst bed species using Raman Spectroscopy through the NASA Technology Research Fellowship Program (NSTRF) is looking for ways to minimize the amount of computation required by understanding the intermediate species created in the catalyst bed. The MSFC team is also working with commercial partners through Cooperative Agreement Notices (CAN's). Partnerships with commercial and academia include work in non-catalytic ignition of AF-M315, spark ignition of hybrid cubesat systems, printed SLM tanks, and dual-mode (electric and chemical) propulsion systems is continuing.

Climatic and ecological controls on variability of fire activity in the tropics and subtropics derived from satellite data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van der Werf, G. R.; Randerson, J. T.; Giglio, L.; Gobron, N.; Dolman, H. J.

2006-12-01

El Nino-Southern Oscillation-linked variations in biomass burning emissions substantially contribute to interannual variability in the growth rate of many trace gases, yet ecological and climatic controls on fire activity are not well known. We used satellite-derived datasets of biomass burning, precipitation rates, and net primary production (NPP) in the tropics and subtropics during 1998 through 2005 to investigate the factors that regulate interannual variability in fire emissions. In many xeric regions that have low levels of NPP, we found a positive relationship between precipitation, NPP, and fire activity, implying that fire in these regions is limited to years when precipitation allows for the build-up of sufficient biomass or fuel loads to allow fire spread. This was most evident in regions where mean annual precipitation was below approximately 600 mm / year, including xeric regions of Africa and Northern Australia. In contrast, in areas of the tropics undergoing active deforestation, including, Indonesia, Central America, and parts of South America we found a significant negative correlation between precipitation and fire activity during the dry season. This implies that human use of fire in these regions in the deforestation process is at least partly limited by periods when high moisture levels limit ignition and fire activity.

Post-fire recovery of torpor and activity patterns of a small mammal.

PubMed

Stawski, Clare; Hume, Taylor; Körtner, Gerhard; Currie, Shannon E; Nowack, Julia; Geiser, Fritz

2017-05-01

To cope with the post-fire challenges of decreased availability of food and shelter, brown antechinus ( Antechinus stuartii ), a small marsupial mammal, increase the use of energy-conserving torpor and reduce activity. However, it is not known how long it takes for animals to resume pre-fire torpor and activity patterns during the recovery of burnt habitat. Therefore, we tested the hypothesis that antechinus will adjust torpor use and activity after a fire depending on vegetation recovery. We simultaneously quantified torpor and activity patterns for female antechinus from three adjacent areas: (i) the area of a management burn 1 year post-fire, (ii) an area that was burned 2 years prior, and (iii) a control area. In comparison to shortly after the management burn, antechinus in all three groups displayed less frequent and less pronounced torpor while being more active. We provide the first evidence that only 1 year post-fire antechinus resume pre-fire torpor and activity patterns, probably in response to the return of herbaceous ground cover and foraging opportunities. © 2017 The Author(s).

Studying interregional wildland fire engine assignments for large fire suppression

Treesearch

Erin J. Belval; Yu Wei; David E. Calkin; Crystal S. Stonesifer; Matthew P. Thompson; John R. Tipton

2017-01-01

One crucial component of large fire response in the United States (US) is the sharing of wildland firefighting resources between regions: resources from regions experiencing low fire activity supplement resources in regions experiencing high fire activity. An important step towards improving the efficiency of resource sharing and related policies is to develop a better...

Canadian and Siberian Boreal Fire Activity during ARCTAS Spring and Summer Phases

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stocks, B. J.; Fromm, M. D.; Soja, A. J.; Servranckx, R.; Lindsey, D.; Hyer, E.

2009-12-01

The summer phase of ARCTAS (Arctic Research of the Composition of the Troposphere from Aircraft and Satellites) was designed specifically around forest fire activity in the Canadian boreal forest, and located in areas of northern Canada where summer forest fires are ubiquitous. Lightning fires are most often allowed to burn naturally in these regions, and a number of large free-burning fires in northern Saskatchewan in late June/early July 2008 provided excellent targets during the summer phase of ARCTAS. Smoke generated by a large number of early spring fires in Kazakhstan and southern Siberia unexpectedly made a significant contribution to arctic haze during the Alaska-based spring phase of ARCTAS, Numerous smoke plumes were sampled during the spring phase of ARCTAS, creating interest in the origin and characteristics of the fires in the source regions of East Asia. This presentation is designed to connect aircraft and satellite smoke chemistry/transport measurements with ground-based measurements of fire activity during the spring and summer phases of ARCTAS. The Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System (CFFDRS) is used to determine forest fire danger conditions in regions of fire activity, and these measurements are in turn used to project fire behavior characteristics. Fuel consumption, spread rates, and frontal fire intensity are calculated using the CFFDRS. Energy release rates at ground level are related to convection/smoke column development and smoke injection heights.

Factor contribution to fire occurrence, size, and burn probability in a subtropical coniferous forest in East China

PubMed Central

Guo, Zhixing; Li, Yijia

2017-01-01

The contribution of factors including fuel type, fire-weather conditions, topography and human activity to fire regime attributes (e.g. fire occurrence, size distribution and severity) has been intensively discussed. The relative importance of those factors in explaining the burn probability (BP), which is critical in terms of fire risk management, has been insufficiently addressed. Focusing on a subtropical coniferous forest with strong human disturbance in East China, our main objective was to evaluate and compare the relative importance of fuel composition, topography, and human activity for fire occurrence, size and BP. Local BP distribution was derived with stochastic fire simulation approach using detailed historical fire data (1990–2010) and forest-resource survey results, based on which our factor contribution analysis was carried out. Our results indicated that fuel composition had the greatest relative importance in explaining fire occurrence and size, but human activity explained most of the variance in BP. This implies that the influence of human activity is amplified through the process of overlapping repeated ignition and spreading events. This result emphasizes the status of strong human disturbance in local fire processes. It further confirms the need for a holistic perspective on factor contribution to fire likelihood, rather than focusing on individual fire regime attributes, for the purpose of fire risk management. PMID:28207837

Forest fires in Pennsylvania.

Treesearch

Donald A. Haines; William A. Main; Eugene F. McNamara

1978-01-01

Describes factors that contribute to forest fires in Pennsylvania. Includes an analysis of basic statistics; distribution of fires during normal, drought, and wet years; fire cause, fire activity by day-of-week; multiple-fire day; and fire climatology.

Fire, Climate, and Human Activity: A Combustive Combination

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kehrwald, N. M.; Battistel, D.; Argiriadis, E.; Barbante, C.; Barber, L. B.; Fortner, S. K.; Jasmann, J.; Kirchgeorg, T.; Zennaro, P.

2017-12-01

Ice and lake core records demonstrate that fires caused by human activity can dominate regional biomass burning records in the Common Era. These major increases in fires are often associated with extensive land use change such as an expansion in agriculture. Regions with few humans, relatively stable human populations and/or unvarying land use often have fire histories that are dominated by climate parameters such as temperature and precipitation. Here, we examine biomass burning recorded in ice cores from northern Greenland (NEEM, (77°27'N; 51°3.6'W), Alaska (Juneau Icefield, 58° 35' N; 134° 29'W) and East Antarctica (EPICA DOME C; 75°06'S; 123°21'E), along with New Zealand lake cores to investigate interactions between climate, fire and human activity. Biomarkers such as levoglucosan, and its isomers mannosan and galactosan, can only be produced by cellulose combustion and therefore are specific indicators of past fire activity archived in ice and lake cores. These fire histories add another factor to climate proxies from the same core, and provide a comparison to regional fire syntheses from charcoal records and climate models. For example, fire data from the JSBACH-Spitfire model for the past 2000 years demonstrates that a climate-only scenario would not increase biomass burning in high northern latitudes for the past 2000 years, while NEEM ice core and regional pollen records demonstrate both increased fire activity and land use change that may be ascribed to human activity. Additional biomarkers such as fecal sterols in lake sediments can determine when people were in an area, and can help establish if an increased human presence in an area corresponds with intensified fire activity. This combination of specific biomarkers, other proxy data, and model output can help determine the relative impact of humans versus climate factors on regional fire activity.

Vegetation fires and air pollution in Vietnam.

PubMed

Le, Thanh Ha; Thanh Nguyen, Thi Nhat; Lasko, Kristofer; Ilavajhala, Shriram; Vadrevu, Krishna Prasad; Justice, Chris

2014-12-01

Forest fires are a significant source of air pollution in Asia. In this study, we integrate satellite remote sensing data and ground-based measurements to infer fire-air pollution relationships in selected regions of Vietnam. We first characterized the active fires and burnt areas at a regional scale from MODIS satellite data. We then used satellite-derived active fire data to correlate the resulting atmospheric pollution. Further, we analyzed the relationship between satellite atmospheric variables and ground-based air pollutant parameters. Our results show peak fire activity during March in Vietnam, with hotspots in the Northwest and Central Highlands. Active fires were significantly correlated with UV Aerosol Index (UVAI), aerosol extinction absorption optical depth (AAOD), and Carbon Monoxide. The use of satellite aerosol optical thickness improved the prediction of Particulate Matter (PM) concentration significantly. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Landscape anthropogenic disturbance in the Mediterranean ecosystem: is the current landscape sustainable?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biondi, Guido; D'Andrea, Mirko; Fiorucci, Paolo; Franciosi, Chiara; Lima, Marco

2013-04-01

Mediterranean landscape during the last centuries has been subject to strong anthropogenic disturbances who shifted natural vegetation cover in a cultural landscape. Most of the natural forest were destroyed in order to allow cultivation and grazing activities. In the last century, fast growing conifer plantations were introduced in order to increase timber production replacing slow growing natural forests. In addition, after the Second World War most of the grazing areas were changed in unmanaged mediterranean conifer forest frequently spread by fires. In the last decades radical socio economic changes lead to a dramatic abandonment of the cultural landscape. One of the most relevant result of these human disturbances, and in particular the replacement of deciduous forests with coniferous forests, has been the increasing in the number of forest fires, mainly human caused. The presence of conifers and shrubs, more prone to fire, triggered a feedback mechanism that makes difficult to return to the stage of potential vegetation causing huge economic, social and environmental damages. The aim of this work is to investigate the sustainability of the current landscape. A future landscape scenario has been simulated considering the natural succession in absence of human intervention assuming the current fire regime will be unaltered. To this end, a new model has been defined, implementing an ecological succession model coupled with a simply Forest Fire Model. The ecological succession model simulates the vegetation dynamics using a rule-based approach discrete in space and time. In this model Plant Functional Types (PFTs) are used to describe the landscape. Wildfires are randomly ignited on the landscape, and their propagation is simulated using a stochastic cellular automata model. The results show that the success of the natural succession toward a potential vegetation cover is prevented by the frequency of fire spreading. The actual landscape is then unsustainable because of the high cost of fire fighting activities. The right path to success consists in development of suitable land use planning and forest management to mitigate the consequences of past anthropogenic disturbances.

Charcoal Reflectance Reveals Early Holocene Boreal Deciduous Forests Burned at High Intensities

PubMed Central

Hudspith, Victoria A.; Belcher, Claire M.; Kelly, Ryan; Hu, Feng Sheng

2015-01-01

Wildfire size, frequency, and severity are increasing in the Alaskan boreal forest in response to climate warming. One of the potential impacts of this changing fire regime is the alteration of successional trajectories, from black spruce to mixed stands dominated by aspen, a vegetation composition not experienced since the early Holocene. Such changes in vegetation composition may consequently alter the intensity of fires, influencing fire feedbacks to the ecosystem. Paleorecords document past wildfire-vegetation dynamics and as such, are imperative for our understanding of how these ecosystems will respond to future climate warming. For the first time, we have used reflectance measurements of macroscopic charcoal particles (>180μm) from an Alaskan lake-sediment record to estimate ancient charring temperatures (termed pyrolysis intensity). We demonstrate that pyrolysis intensity increased markedly from an interval of birch tundra 11 ky ago (mean 1.52%Ro; 485°C), to the expansion of trees on the landscape ∼10.5 ky ago, remaining high to the present (mean 3.54%Ro; 640°C) irrespective of stand composition. Despite differing flammabilities and adaptations to fire, the highest pyrolysis intensities derive from two intervals with distinct vegetation compositions. 1) the expansion of mixed aspen and spruce woodland at 10 cal. kyr BP, and 2) the establishment of black spruce, and the modern boreal forest at 4 cal. kyr BP. Based on our analysis, we infer that predicted expansion of deciduous trees into the boreal forest in the future could lead to high intensity, but low severity fires, potentially moderating future climate-fire feedbacks. PMID:25853712

Charcoal reflectance reveals early holocene boreal deciduous forests burned at high intensities.

PubMed

Hudspith, Victoria A; Belcher, Claire M; Kelly, Ryan; Hu, Feng Sheng

2015-01-01

Wildfire size, frequency, and severity are increasing in the Alaskan boreal forest in response to climate warming. One of the potential impacts of this changing fire regime is the alteration of successional trajectories, from black spruce to mixed stands dominated by aspen, a vegetation composition not experienced since the early Holocene. Such changes in vegetation composition may consequently alter the intensity of fires, influencing fire feedbacks to the ecosystem. Paleorecords document past wildfire-vegetation dynamics and as such, are imperative for our understanding of how these ecosystems will respond to future climate warming. For the first time, we have used reflectance measurements of macroscopic charcoal particles (>180μm) from an Alaskan lake-sediment record to estimate ancient charring temperatures (termed pyrolysis intensity). We demonstrate that pyrolysis intensity increased markedly from an interval of birch tundra 11 ky ago (mean 1.52%Ro; 485°C), to the expansion of trees on the landscape ~10.5 ky ago, remaining high to the present (mean 3.54%Ro; 640°C) irrespective of stand composition. Despite differing flammabilities and adaptations to fire, the highest pyrolysis intensities derive from two intervals with distinct vegetation compositions. 1) the expansion of mixed aspen and spruce woodland at 10 cal. kyr BP, and 2) the establishment of black spruce, and the modern boreal forest at 4 cal. kyr BP. Based on our analysis, we infer that predicted expansion of deciduous trees into the boreal forest in the future could lead to high intensity, but low severity fires, potentially moderating future climate-fire feedbacks.

Biological research on fire in the West

USGS Publications Warehouse

,

2005-01-01

Wildland fires are a natural feature of many ecosystems, including grasslands, forests, and shrublands. How-ever, years of fire exclusion have led to accumulations of dead fuels and increases in the density of fire-intolerant species. In most western states, recent fires burning in these altered ecosystems have caused significant damage and huge economic losses to homes, busi-nesses, and communities. They also have dis-turbed forests and rangelands as well as their associated watersheds, plants, and animals. Every western state is concerned about dam-age from such catastrophic fires, and there is strong interest from all sectors in prevent-ing and reducing the resulting damage in the future. There is also interest in the use of fire as a management tool for reducing hazards and restoring damaged ecosystems and for returning fire to its natural role in wilderness ecosystems.

Large-Scale Spacecraft Fire Safety Experiments in ISS Resupply Vehicles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ruff, Gary A.; Urban, David

2013-01-01

Our understanding of the fire safety risk in manned spacecraft has been limited by the small scale of the testing we have been able to conduct in low-gravity. Fire growth and spread cannot be expected to scale linearly with sample size so we cannot make accurate predictions of the behavior of realistic scale fires in spacecraft based on the limited low-g testing to date. As a result, spacecraft fire safety protocols are necessarily very conservative and costly. Future crewed missions are expected to be longer in duration than previous exploration missions outside of low-earth orbit and accordingly, more complex in terms of operations, logistics, and safety. This will increase the challenge of ensuring a fire-safe environment for the crew throughout the mission. Based on our fundamental uncertainty of the behavior of fires in low-gravity, the need for realistic scale testing at reduced gravity has been demonstrated. To address this concern, a spacecraft fire safety research project is underway to reduce the uncertainty and risk in the design of spacecraft fire safety systems by testing at nearly full scale in low-gravity. This project is supported by the NASA Advanced Exploration Systems Program Office in the Human Exploration and Operations Mission Directorate. The activity of this project is supported by an international topical team of fire experts from other space agencies to maximize the utility of the data and to ensure the widest possible scrutiny of the concept. The large-scale space flight experiment will be conducted on three missions; each in an Orbital Sciences Corporation Cygnus vehicle after it has deberthed from the ISS. Although the experiment will need to meet rigorous safety requirements to ensure the carrier vehicle does not sustain damage, the absence of a crew allows the fire products to be released into the cabin. The tests will be fully automated with the data downlinked at the conclusion of the test before the Cygnus vehicle reenters the atmosphere. The international topical team is collaborating with the NASA team in the definition of the experiment requirements and performing supporting analysis, experimentation and technology development.

Measurement of inter- and intra-annual variability of landscape fire activity at a continental scale: the Australian case

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williamson, Grant J.; Prior, Lynda D.; Jolly, W. Matt; Cochrane, Mark A.; Murphy, Brett P.; Bowman, David M. J. S.

2016-03-01

Climate dynamics at diurnal, seasonal and inter-annual scales shape global fire activity, although difficulties of assembling reliable fire and meteorological data with sufficient spatio-temporal resolution have frustrated quantification of this variability. Using Australia as a case study, we combine data from 4760 meteorological stations with 12 years of satellite-derived active fire detections to determine day and night time fire activity, fire season start and end dates, and inter-annual variability, across 61 objectively defined climate regions in three climate zones (monsoon tropics, arid and temperate). We show that geographic patterns of landscape burning (onset and duration) are related to fire weather, resulting in a latitudinal gradient from the monsoon tropics in winter, through the arid zone in all seasons except winter, and then to the temperate zone in summer and autumn. Peak fire activity precedes maximum lightning activity by several months in all regions, signalling the importance of human ignitions in shaping fire seasons. We determined median daily McArthur forest fire danger index (FFDI50) for days and nights when fires were detected: FFDI50 varied substantially between climate zones, reflecting effects of fire management in the temperate zone, fuel limitation in the arid zone and abundance of flammable grasses in the monsoon tropical zone. We found correlations between the proportion of days when FFDI exceeds FFDI50 and the Southern Oscillation index across the arid zone during spring and summer, and Indian Ocean dipole mode index across south-eastern Australia during summer. Our study demonstrates that Australia has a long fire weather season with high inter-annual variability relative to all other continents, making it difficult to detect long term trends. It also provides a way of establishing robust baselines to track changes to fire seasons, and supports a previous conceptual model highlighting multi-temporal scale effects of climate in shaping continental-scale pyrogeography.

Bat Response to Differing Fire Severity in Mixed-Conifer Forest California, USA

PubMed Central

Heady, Paul A.; Hayes, John P.; Frick, Winifred F.

2013-01-01

Wildlife response to natural disturbances such as fire is of conservation concern to managers, policy makers, and scientists, yet information is scant beyond a few well-studied groups (e.g., birds, small mammals). We examined the effects of wildfire severity on bats, a taxon of high conservation concern, at both the stand (<1 ha) and landscape scale in response to the 2002 McNally fire in the Sierra Nevada region of California, USA. One year after fire, we conducted surveys of echolocation activity at 14 survey locations, stratified in riparian and upland habitat, in mixed-conifer forest habitats spanning three levels of burn severity: unburned, moderate, and high. Bat activity in burned areas was either equivalent or higher than in unburned stands for all six phonic groups measured, with four groups having significantly greater activity in at least one burn severity level. Evidence of differentiation between fire severities was observed with some Myotis species having higher levels of activity in stands of high-severity burn. Larger-bodied bats, typically adapted to more open habitat, showed no response to fire. We found differential use of riparian and upland habitats among the phonic groups, yet no interaction of habitat type by fire severity was found. Extent of high-severity fire damage in the landscape had no effect on activity of bats in unburned sites suggesting no landscape effect of fire on foraging site selection and emphasizing stand-scale conditions driving bat activity. Results from this fire in mixed-conifer forests of California suggest that bats are resilient to landscape-scale fire and that some species are preferentially selecting burned areas for foraging, perhaps facilitated by reduced clutter and increased post-fire availability of prey and roosts. PMID:23483936

Aridity influences the recovery of vegetation and shrubland birds after wildfire

PubMed Central

Puig-Gironès, Roger; Brotons, Lluís

2017-01-01

Wildfires play a determining role in the composition and structure of many plant and animal communities. On the other hand, climate change is considered to be a major driver of current and future fire regime changes. Despite increases in drought in many areas of the world, the effects of aridity on post-fire colonization by animals have been rarely addressed. This study aims to analyse how a regional aridity gradient affects post-fire recovery of vegetation, bird species richness and the numbers of four early to middle-successional warbler species associated with the shrub cover. The database contains bird relative abundance and environmental variables from 3072 censuses in 695 transects located in 70 recently burnt areas (1 to 11 years after wildfire) in Catalonia (Spain), which were sampled between 2006 and 2013. Generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) showed that plant cover was affected by time since fire, aridity and forest management. However, only the highest vegetation height layer (>100 cm) recovered slower in arid areas after fire. Time since fire positively influenced bird species richness and the relative abundance of the four focal species. The post-fire recovery of Melodious (Hippolais polyglotta) and Subalpine warblers (Sylvia cantillans) was hampered by aridity. Although this was not demonstrated for Dartford (S. undata) and Sardinian warblers (S. melanocephala), their occurrence was low in the driest areas during the first three years after fire. Overall, this study suggests that future increases in aridity can affect plant regeneration after fire and slow down the recovery of animal populations that depend on understorey and shrublands. Given the recently highlighted increases in aridity and fire frequency in Mediterranean-climate regions, improved knowledge on how aridity affects ecological succession is especially necessary. PMID:28355225

Aridity influences the recovery of vegetation and shrubland birds after wildfire.

PubMed

Puig-Gironès, Roger; Brotons, Lluís; Pons, Pere

2017-01-01

Wildfires play a determining role in the composition and structure of many plant and animal communities. On the other hand, climate change is considered to be a major driver of current and future fire regime changes. Despite increases in drought in many areas of the world, the effects of aridity on post-fire colonization by animals have been rarely addressed. This study aims to analyse how a regional aridity gradient affects post-fire recovery of vegetation, bird species richness and the numbers of four early to middle-successional warbler species associated with the shrub cover. The database contains bird relative abundance and environmental variables from 3072 censuses in 695 transects located in 70 recently burnt areas (1 to 11 years after wildfire) in Catalonia (Spain), which were sampled between 2006 and 2013. Generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) showed that plant cover was affected by time since fire, aridity and forest management. However, only the highest vegetation height layer (>100 cm) recovered slower in arid areas after fire. Time since fire positively influenced bird species richness and the relative abundance of the four focal species. The post-fire recovery of Melodious (Hippolais polyglotta) and Subalpine warblers (Sylvia cantillans) was hampered by aridity. Although this was not demonstrated for Dartford (S. undata) and Sardinian warblers (S. melanocephala), their occurrence was low in the driest areas during the first three years after fire. Overall, this study suggests that future increases in aridity can affect plant regeneration after fire and slow down the recovery of animal populations that depend on understorey and shrublands. Given the recently highlighted increases in aridity and fire frequency in Mediterranean-climate regions, improved knowledge on how aridity affects ecological succession is especially necessary.

Global Burned Area and Biomass Burning Emissions from Small Fires

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Randerson, J. T.; Chen, Y.; vanderWerf, G. R.; Rogers, B. M.; Morton, D. C.

2012-01-01

In several biomes, including croplands, wooded savannas, and tropical forests, many small fires occur each year that are well below the detection limit of the current generation of global burned area products derived from moderate resolution surface reflectance imagery. Although these fires often generate thermal anomalies that can be detected by satellites, their contributions to burned area and carbon fluxes have not been systematically quantified across different regions and continents. Here we developed a preliminary method for combining 1-km thermal anomalies (active fires) and 500 m burned area observations from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) to estimate the influence of these fires. In our approach, we calculated the number of active fires inside and outside of 500 m burn scars derived from reflectance data. We estimated small fire burned area by computing the difference normalized burn ratio (dNBR) for these two sets of active fires and then combining these observations with other information. In a final step, we used the Global Fire Emissions Database version 3 (GFED3) biogeochemical model to estimate the impact of these fires on biomass burning emissions. We found that the spatial distribution of active fires and 500 m burned areas were in close agreement in ecosystems that experience large fires, including savannas across southern Africa and Australia and boreal forests in North America and Eurasia. In other areas, however, we observed many active fires outside of burned area perimeters. Fire radiative power was lower for this class of active fires. Small fires substantially increased burned area in several continental-scale regions, including Equatorial Asia (157%), Central America (143%), and Southeast Asia (90%) during 2001-2010. Globally, accounting for small fires increased total burned area by approximately by 35%, from 345 Mha/yr to 464 Mha/yr. A formal quantification of uncertainties was not possible, but sensitivity analyses of key model parameters caused estimates of global burned area increases from small fires to vary between 24% and 54%. Biomass burning carbon emissions increased by 35% at a global scale when small fires were included in GFED3, from 1.9 Pg C/yr to 2.5 Pg C/yr. The contribution of tropical forest fires to year-to-year variability in carbon fluxes increased because small fires amplified emissions from Central America, South America and Southeast Asia-regions where drought stress and burned area varied considerably from year to year in response to El Nino-Southern Oscillation and other climate modes.

Perils in the adaptation of fire management to a changing world

Treesearch

Armando González-Cabán; M.M. Fernández-Ramiro; Claudio Conese; Francesco Bosello; Jorge Núñez; Victor Otrachshenko; B.J. Orr

2014-01-01

Increased fire load and costs are anticipated under future scenarios of climate and other global changes. This requires increased efficiency in investments in wildfire management operations, and resolving the disconnect problem between science, policy and management.

Prevention and Control of Highway Tunnel Fires

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1984-05-01

This study investigates steps that can be taken to reduce the risk, damage, and : fatalities from fires in existing and future highway tunnels and the effect of : unrestricted transit of hazardous materials through them. The history of : highway tunn...

Climate drives inter-annual variability in probability of high severity fire occurrence in the western United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keyser, Alisa; Westerling, Anthony LeRoy

2017-05-01

A long history of fire suppression in the western United States has significantly changed forest structure and ecological function, leading to increasingly uncharacteristic fires in terms of size and severity. Prior analyses of fire severity in California forests showed that time since last fire and fire weather conditions predicted fire severity very well, while a larger regional analysis showed that topography and climate were important predictors of high severity fire. There has not yet been a large-scale study that incorporates topography, vegetation and fire-year climate to determine regional scale high severity fire occurrence. We developed models to predict the probability of high severity fire occurrence for the western US. We predict high severity fire occurrence with some accuracy, and identify the relative importance of predictor classes in determining the probability of high severity fire. The inclusion of both vegetation and fire-year climate predictors was critical for model skill in identifying fires with high fractional fire severity. The inclusion of fire-year climate variables allows this model to forecast inter-annual variability in areas at future risk of high severity fire, beyond what slower-changing fuel conditions alone can accomplish. This allows for more targeted land management, including resource allocation for fuels reduction treatments to decrease the risk of high severity fire.

SKOSFIRE: Semantically Accessible Vocabularies for Wildland Fire Science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nordgren, B.; Urbanski, S. P.

2012-12-01

The field of wildland fire science is experiencing mounting pressure to perform better data management. Large field campaigns produce all manner of data covering a variety of disciplines, including: spreadsheets of fuel measurements, meteorological data, visible and thermal infrared video, and volumetric datasets produced by scanning LIDAR. These data enable the advancement and validation of state of the art modeling tools. Curating these data with the objective of enabling future users to quickly and efficiently locate observations of interest is becoming a critical need, particularly in an era of shrinking budgets. As a first step towards the eventual goal of developing a Wildland Fire Science ontology for use with semantically-aware repository services, peer reviewed glossaries within the domain have been converted to the Simple Knowledge Organization System (SKOS) format. The "Glossary of Wildland Fire Terminology" is an interagency publication of the National Wildfire Coordinating Group (NWCG), and serves to provide many concepts relevant to the land management agencies acting as consumers of fire science. "Firewords" is managed by fire scientists and provides concepts of interest to a scientific audience. Finally, a volume has been published to define the variables required by the BehavePlus fire modeling system, which should serve to describe many measurement fields. This work describes the steps taken to transition each of these sources from a term-centered glossary to a collection of well defined concepts serving as the foundation of a future Wildland Fire Science ontology.

Understanding the interaction between wild fire and vegetation distribution within the NCAR CESM framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seo, H.; Kim, Y.; Kim, H. J.

2017-12-01

Every year wild fire brings about 400Mha of land burned therefore 2Pg of carbon emissions from the surface occur. In this way fire not only affects the carbon circulation but also has an effect on the terrestrial ecosystems. This study aims to understand role of fire on the geographic vegetation distribution and the terrestrial carbon balances within the NCAR CESM framework, specifically with the CLM-BGC and CLM-BGC-DV. Global climate data from Climate Research Unit (CRU)-National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) data ranging from 1901 to 2010 are used to drive the land models. First, by comparing fire-on and fire-off simulations with the CLM-BGC-DV, the fire impacts in dynamic vegetation are quantified by the fractional land areas of the different plant functional types. In addition, we examine how changes in vegetation distribution affect the total sum of the burned areas and the carbon balances. This study would provide the limits of and suggestions for the fire and dynamic vegetation modules of the CLM-BGC. AcknowledgementsThis work was supported by Basic Science Research Program through the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) funded by the Ministry of Science, ICT & Future Planning (2015R1C1A2A01054800) and by the Korea Meteorological Administration R&D Program under Grant KMIPA 2015-6180. This work was also supported by the Yonsei University Future-leading Research Initiative of 2015(2016-22-0061).

Human presence diminishes the importance of climate in driving fire activity across the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Syphard, Alexandra D.; Keeley, Jon E.; Pfaff, Anne Hopkins; Ferschweiler, Ken

2017-01-01

Growing human and ecological costs due to increasing wildfire are an urgent concern in policy and management, particularly given projections of worsening fire conditions under climate change. Thus, understanding the relationship between climatic variation and fire activity is a critically important scientific question. Different factors limit fire behavior in different places and times, but most fire-climate analyses are conducted across broad spatial extents that mask geographical variation. This could result in overly broad or inappropriate management and policy decisions that neglect to account for regionally specific or other important factors driving fire activity. We developed statistical models relating seasonal temperature and precipitation variables to historical annual fire activity for 37 different regions across the continental United States and asked whether and how fire-climate relationships vary geographically, and why climate is more important in some regions than in others. Climatic variation played a significant role in explaining annual fire activity in some regions, but the relative importance of seasonal temperature or precipitation, in addition to the overall importance of climate, varied substantially depending on geographical context. Human presence was the primary reason that climate explained less fire activity in some regions than in others. That is, where human presence was more prominent, climate was less important. This means that humans may not only influence fire regimes but their presence can actually override, or swamp out, the effect of climate. Thus, geographical context as well as human influence should be considered alongside climate in national wildfire policy and management.

Burn and they will come! The western regional birds and burns study examines bird responses to prescribed fire

Treesearch

Jonathan Thompson; John Lehmkuhl

2008-01-01

Although prescribed fire is increasingly being used in ponderosa pine forests as a management tool to reduce the risk of future high-severity wildfire, its effects on wildlife habitat have rarely been examined. The Birds and Burns Network was created to assist managers in planning prescribed fire projects that will reduce fuels and enhance bird habitat. Researchers...

Wildland fire management policy: Learning from the past and present and responding to future challenges

Treesearch

Tom Zimmerman

2009-01-01

Wildland fire is one of the most important vegetation- shaping factors that land managers deal with. It is our highest risk, most complex, and potentially highest consequence program. Wildland fire management policy is the most important element in defining the direction, scope, and focus of the program. What is policy? If we look it up in Merriam-Webster's...

Social Science Research Related to Wildfire Management: An Overview of Recent Findings and Future Research Needs

Treesearch

Sarah M. McCaffrey; Eric Toman; Melanie Stidham; Bruce Shindler

2012-01-01

As with other aspects of natural-resource management, the approach to managing wildland fires has evolved over time as scientific understanding has advanced and the broader context surrounding management decisions has changed. Prior to 2000 the primary focus of most fire research was on the physical and ecological aspects of fire; social science research was limited to...

Chapter 10 - Wildfire and fire severity effects on post-fire carbon and nitrogen cycling in forest soil (Project NC-EM-F-14-1)

Treesearch

Jessica R. Miesel; Randy Kolka; Phil Townsend

2018-01-01

Fire is a key ecological driver in determining vegetation composition, biomass, and ecosystem dynamics in coniferous forests of the Laurentian Mixed Forest in the Great Lakes region (Cleland and others 2004, Frelich 1995). Regional projections of future climate conditions indicate warmer temperatures, more variable precipitation patterns, and greater moisture stress (...

Fire Effects on Microbial Enzyme Activities in Larch Forests of the Siberian Arctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ludwig, S.; Alexander, H. D.; Bulygina, E. B.; Mann, P. J.; Natali, S.

2012-12-01

Arctic forest ecosystems are warming at an accelerated rate relative to lower latitudes, with global implications for C cycling within these regions. As climate continues to warm and dry, wildfire frequency and severity are predicted to increase, creating a positive feedback to climate warming. Increased fire activity will also influence the microenvironment experienced by soil microbes in disturbed soils. Because soil microbes regulate carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) cycling between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere, it is important to understand microbial response to fires, particularly in the understudied larch forests in the Siberian Arctic. In this project, we created experimental burn plots in a mature larch forest in the Kolyma River watershed of Northeastern Siberia. Plots were burned at several treatments: control (no burn), low, moderate, and severe. After, 1 and 8 d post-fire, we measured soil organic layer depth, soil organic matter (SOM) content, soil moisture, and CO2 flux from the plots. Additionally, we leached soils and measured dissolved organic carbon (DOC), total dissolved nitrogen (TDN), NH4, NO3, soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP), and chromophoric dissolved organic matter (CDOM). Furthermore, we measured extracellular activity of four enzymes involved in soil C and nutrient cycling (leucine aminopeptidase (LAP), β-glucosidase, phosphatase, and phenol oxidase). One day post-fire, LAP activity was similarly low in all treatments, but by 8 d post-fire, LAP activity was lower in burned plots compared to control plots, likely due to increased nitrogen content with increasing burn severity. Phosphatase activity decreased with burn severity 1 d post-fire, but after 8 d, moderate and severe burn plots exhibited increased phosphatase activity. Coupled with trends in LAP activity, this suggests a switch in nutrient limitation from N to phosphorus that is more pronounced with burn severity. β-glucosidase activity similarly decreased with burn severity 1 d post-fire, but by 8 d post-fire activity was the same in all treatments, indicating complete recovery of the microbial population. Phenol oxidase activity was low in all treatments 1 d post-fire, but by 8 d post-fire, severe plots had substantially increased phenol oxidase activity, likely due to microbial efforts to mitigate phenolic compound toxicity following severe fires. Both DOC and the slope ratio of CDOM absorbance increased with burn severity 1 d post-fire, indicating higher extractability of lighter molecular weight C from severe burns. These results imply that black C created from fires remains as a stable C pool while more labile C is mobilized with increasing burn severity. Our results suggest that the immediate effects of fire severity on microbial communities have the potential to change both nutrient use and the form and concentration of C being processed and mobilized from larch forest ecosystems. These findings highlight the importance of changing fire regimes on soil dynamics with implications for forest re-growth, soil-atmospheric feedbacks, and terrestrial inputs to aquatic ecosystems.

An Educational Program Dealing with Fire Safety. Curriculum and Resource Guide.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rhode Island State Dept. of Education, Providence.

A series of activities for fire safety education in grades K-12 is presented. The document is organized into three parts: grades K-3; 4-6; and 7-12. Each activity is preceded by general and specific concepts to be stressed. Concepts for grades K-3 stress usefulness and types of fire, fire drills, the fire fighting profession, and the…

Circumpolar spatio-temporal patterns and contributing climatic factors of wildfire activity in the Arctic tundra from 2001-2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masrur, Arif; Petrov, Andrey N.; DeGroote, John

2018-01-01

Recent years have seen an increased frequency of wildfire events in different parts of Arctic tundra ecosystems. Contemporary studies have largely attributed these wildfire events to the Arctic’s rapidly changing climate and increased atmospheric disturbances (i.e. thunderstorms). However, existing research has primarily examined the wildfire-climate dynamics of individual large wildfire events. No studies have investigated wildfire activity, including climatic drivers, for the entire tundra biome across multiple years, i.e. at the planetary scale. To address this limitation, this paper provides a planetary/circumpolar scale analyses of space-time patterns of tundra wildfire occurrence and climatic association in the Arctic over a 15 year period (2001-2015). In doing so, we have leveraged and analyzed NASA Terra’s MODIS active fire and MERRA climate reanalysis products at multiple temporal scales (decadal, seasonal and monthly). Our exploratory spatial data analysis found that tundra wildfire occurrence was spatially clustered and fire intensity was spatially autocorrelated across the Arctic regions. Most of the wildfire events occurred in the peak summer months (June-August). Our multi-temporal (decadal, seasonal and monthly) scale analyses provide further support to the link between climate variability and wildfire activity. Specifically, we found that warm and dry conditions in the late spring to mid-summer influenced tundra wildfire occurrence, spatio-temporal distribution, and fire intensity. Additionally, reduced average surface precipitation and soil moisture levels in the winter-spring period were associated with increased fire intensity in the following summer. These findings enrich contemporary knowledge on tundra wildfire’s spatial and seasonal patterns, and shed new light on tundra wildfire-climate relationships in the circumpolar context. Furthermore, this first pan-Arctic analysis provides a strong incentive and direction for future studies which integrate multiple datasets (i.e. climate, fuels, topography, and ignition sources) to accurately estimate carbon emission from tundra burning and its global climate feedbacks in coming decades.

The Effects of Wildfire on Mortality and Resources for an Arboreal Marsupial: Resilience to Fire Events but Susceptibility to Fire Regime Change

PubMed Central

Banks, Sam C.; Knight, Emma J.; McBurney, Lachlan; Blair, David; Lindenmayer, David B.

2011-01-01

Background Big environmental disturbances have big ecological effects, yet these are not always what we might expect. Understanding the proximate effects of major disturbances, such as severe wildfires, on individuals, populations and habitats will be essential for understanding how predicted future increases in the frequency of such disturbances will affect ecosystems. However, researchers rarely have access to data from immediately before and after such events. Here we report on the effects of a severe and extensive forest wildfire on mortality, reproductive output and availability of key shelter resources for an arboreal marsupial. We also investigated the behavioural response of individuals to changed shelter resource availability in the post-fire environment. Methodology/Principal Findings We fitted proximity-logging radiotransmitters to mountain brushtail possums (Trichosurus cunninghami) before, during and after the 2009 wildfires in Victoria, Australia. Surprisingly, we detected no mortality associated with the fire, and despite a significant post-fire decrease in the proportion of females carrying pouch young in the burnt area, there was no short-term post-fire population decline. The major consequence of this fire for mountain brushtail possums was the loss of over 80% of hollow-bearing trees. The types of trees preferred as shelter sites (highly decayed dead standing trees) were those most likely to collapse after fire. Individuals adapted to resource decline by being more flexible in resource selection after the fire, but not by increased resource sharing. Conclusions/Significance Despite short-term demographic resilience and behavioural adaptation following this fire, the major loss of decayed hollow trees suggests the increased frequency of stand-replacing wildfires predicted under climate change will pose major challenges for shelter resource availability for hollow-dependent fauna. Hollow-bearing trees are typically biological legacies of previous forest generations in post-fire regrowth forests but will cease to be recruited to future regrowth forests if the interval between severe fires becomes too rapid for hollow formation. PMID:21826221

Ensemble projections of wildfire activity and carbonaceous aerosol concentrations over the western United States in the mid-21st century

PubMed Central

Yue, Xu; Mickley, Loretta J.; Logan, Jennifer A.; Kaplan, Jed O.

2013-01-01

We estimate future wildfire activity over the western United States during the mid-21st century (2046–2065), based on results from 15 climate models following the A1B scenario. We develop fire prediction models by regressing meteorological variables from the current and previous years together with fire indexes onto observed regional area burned. The regressions explain 0.25–0.60 of the variance in observed annual area burned during 1980–2004, depending on the ecoregion. We also parameterize daily area burned with temperature, precipitation, and relative humidity. This approach explains ~0.5 of the variance in observed area burned over forest ecoregions but shows no predictive capability in the semi-arid regions of Nevada and California. By applying the meteorological fields from 15 climate models to our fire prediction models, we quantify the robustness of our wildfire projections at mid-century. We calculate increases of 24–124% in area burned using regressions and 63–169% with the parameterization. Our projections are most robust in the southwestern desert, where all GCMs predict significant (p<0.05) meteorological changes. For forested ecoregions, more GCMs predict significant increases in future area burned with the parameterization than with the regressions, because the latter approach is sensitive to hydrological variables that show large inter-model variability in the climate projections. The parameterization predicts that the fire season lengthens by 23 days in the warmer and drier climate at mid-century. Using a chemical transport model, we find that wildfire emissions will increase summertime surface organic carbon aerosol over the western United States by 46–70% and black carbon by 20–27% at midcentury, relative to the present day. The pollution is most enhanced during extreme episodes: above the 84th percentile of concentrations, OC increases by ~90% and BC by ~50%, while visibility decreases from 130 km to 100 km in 32 Federal Class 1 areas in Rocky Mountains Forest. PMID:24015109

A human-driven decline in global burned area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andela, N.

2017-12-01

Fire regimes are changing rapidly across the globe, driven by human land management and climate. We assessed long-term trends in fire activity using multiple satellite data sets and developed a new global data set on individual fire dynamics to understand the implications of changing fire regimes. Despite warming climate, burned area declined across most of the tropics, contributing to a global decline in burned area of 24.3 ± 8.8% over the past 18 years. The estimated decrease in burned area was largest in savannas and grasslands, where agricultural expansion and intensification were primary drivers of declining fire activity. In tropical forests, frequent fires for deforestation and agricultural management yield a sharp rise in fire activity with the expansion of settled land uses, but the use of fire decreases with increasing investment in agricultural areas in both savanna and forested landscapes. Disparate patterns of recent socieconomic development resulted in contrasting fire trends between southern Africa (increase) and South America (decrease). A strong inverse relationship between burned area and economic development in savannas and grasslands suggests that despite potential increasing fire risk from climate change, ongoing socioeconomic development will likely sustain observed declines in fire in these ecosystems during coming decades. Fewer and smaller fires reduced aerosol concentrations, modified vegetation structure, and increased the magnitude of the terrestrial carbon sink. The spatiotemporal distribution of fire size, duration, speed and direction of spread provided new insights in continental scale differences in fire regimes driven by human and climatic factors. Understanding these dynamics over larger scales is critical to achieve a balance between conservation of fire-dependent ecosystems and increasing agricultural production to support growing populations that will require careful management of fire activity in human-dominated landscapes.

Advanced fire-resistant forms of activated carbon and methods of adsorbing and separating gases using same

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Xiong, Yongliang; Wang, Yifeng

A method of removing a target gas from a gas stream is disclosed. The method uses advanced, fire-resistant activated carbon compositions having vastly improved fire resistance. Methods for synthesizing the compositions are also provided. The advanced compositions have high gas adsorption capacities and rapid adsorption kinetics (comparable to commercially-available activated carbon), without having any intrinsic fire hazard.

Fire activity and severity in the western US vary along proxy gradients representing fuel amount and fuel moisture

Treesearch

Sean A. Parks; Marc-Andre Parisien; Carol Miller; Solomon Z. Dobrowski

2014-01-01

Numerous theoretical and empirical studies have shown that wildfire activity (e.g., area burned) at regional to global scales may be limited at the extremes of environmental gradients such as productivity or moisture. Fire activity, however, represents only one component of the fire regime, and no studies to date have characterized fire severity along such gradients....

[Factors affecting the vegetation restoration after fires in cold temperate wetlands: A review].

PubMed

Zhao, Feng-Jun; Wang, Li-Zhong; Shu, Li-Fu; Chen, Peng-Yu; Chen, Li-guang

2013-03-01

Cold temperate wetland plays an important role in maintaining regional ecological balance. Fire is an important disturbance factor in wetland ecosystem. Severe burning can induce the marked degradation of the ecological functions of wetland ecosystem. The vegetation restoration, especially the early vegetation restoration, after fires, is the premise and basis for the recovery of the ecological functions of the ecosystem. This paper reviewed the research progress on the factors affecting the vegetation restoration after fires in wetlands. The vegetation restoration after fires in cold temperate wetlands was controlled by the fire intensity, fire size, vegetation types before fires, regeneration characteristics of plant species, and site conditions. It was considered that the long-term monitoring on the post-fire vegetation restoration in cold temperate wetland, the key factors affecting the vegetation restoration, the roles of frozen soil layer on the post-fire vegetation restoration, and the theories and technologies on the vegetation restoration would be the main research directions in the future.

Recommendations on the use of prescribed burning practices in grassland conservation - An evidence-based study from Hungary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tóthmérész, Béla; Valkó, Orsolya; Török, Péter; Végvári, Zsolt; Deák, Balázs

2015-04-01

Fire as a natural disturbance has been present in most European grasslands. In parallel controlled use of burning was an important part of the traditional landscape management for millennia. It was used to reduce litter and suppress woody vegetation as well as to maintain open landscapes suitable for farming. Recently, human activities have a considerable impact on natural fire regimes through habitat fragmentation, cessation of traditional grassland management and climate change. Nowadays the majority of human-ignited fires are uncontrolled burnings and arson, which have serious negative impacts on human life, property and can be detrimental also from the nature conservation point of view. Despite fire was widely applied in the past and the considerable extension and frequency of current grassland fires, the impact of fire on the grassland biodiversity is still scarcely documented in Europe. The aim of our study was to gather practical knowledge and experiences from Hungary concerning the effects of fire on grasslands. To fulfil this aim we sent questionnaires to experts from Hungarian national park directorates to gather unpublished data and field observations concerning the effects of burning on grasslands. Based on the answers for the questionnaires fire regularly occur in almost every grassland types in Hungary. We found that effects of fire are habitat-specific. One hand uncontrolled burning and arson have serious detrimental impacts on many endangered species (ground-dwelling birds, such as Asio flammeus, Tringa totanus and Vanellus vanellus; or lizards, such as Ablepharus kitaibelii). On the other hand in several cases fire has a positive effect on the habitat structure and favours species of high nature conservation interest (plant species, such as Adonis volgensis, Chamaecytisus supinus and Pulsatilla grandis; butterflies, such as Euphydryas aurinia; bird species such as Circus aeruginosus and Larus cachinnans). Our results suggest that even uncontrolled burning can have positive impacts from a nature conservation point of view by supporting several endangered species, reducing accumulated litter and maintaining open landscapes. Given the fact that due to land use changes and global warming the frequency of fire events are expected to increase in the next future, it is crucial to summarize evidence-based knowledge on fire in a European level and to design prescribed burning experiments in which the effects of fire could be studied in a controlled way.

The impact of boreal forest fire on climate warming

USGS Publications Warehouse

Randerson, J.T.; Liu, H.; Flanner, M.G.; Chambers, S.D.; Jin, Y.; Hess, P.G.; Pfister, G.; Mack, M.C.; Treseder, K.K.; Welp, L.R.; Chapin, F.S.; Harden, J.W.; Goulden, M.L.; Lyons, E.; Neff, J.C.; Schuur, E.A.G.; Zender, C.S.

2006-01-01

We report measurements and analysis of a boreal forest fire, integrating the effects of greenhouse gases, aerosols, black carbon deposition on snow and sea ice, and postfire changes in surface albedo. The net effect of all agents was to increase radiative forcing during the first year (34 ?? 31 Watts per square meter of burned area), but to decrease radiative forcing when averaged over an 80-year fire cycle (-2.3 ?? 2.2 Watts per square meter) because multidecadal increases in surface albedo had a larger impact than fire-emitted greenhouse gases. This result implies that future increases in boreal fire may not accelerate climate warming.

The impact of boreal forest fire on climate warming.

PubMed

Randerson, J T; Liu, H; Flanner, M G; Chambers, S D; Jin, Y; Hess, P G; Pfister, G; Mack, M C; Treseder, K K; Welp, L R; Chapin, F S; Harden, J W; Goulden, M L; Lyons, E; Neff, J C; Schuur, E A G; Zender, C S

2006-11-17

We report measurements and analysis of a boreal forest fire, integrating the effects of greenhouse gases, aerosols, black carbon deposition on snow and sea ice, and postfire changes in surface albedo. The net effect of all agents was to increase radiative forcing during the first year (34 +/- 31 Watts per square meter of burned area), but to decrease radiative forcing when averaged over an 80-year fire cycle (-2.3 +/- 2.2 Watts per square meter) because multidecadal increases in surface albedo had a larger impact than fire-emitted greenhouse gases. This result implies that future increases in boreal fire may not accelerate climate warming.

The great Chinese fire of 1987 - A view from space

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cahoon, Donald R., Jr.; Levine, Joel S.; Cofer, Wesley R., III; Miller, James E.; Minnis, Patrick; Tennille, Geoffrey M.; Yip, Tommy W.; Stocks, Brian J.; Heck, Patrick W.

1991-01-01

One of the largest forest fires ever recorded burned in the People's Republic of China (PRC) and the Soviet Union in May 1987. The fire covered over 1.0 million hectares in the PRC and almost 4 million hectares in the Soviet Union. The progress and areal extent of the fire were measured using satellite images analyzed in the imaging facilities at NASA-Langley and Forestry Canada. The analyses show the utility and value of satellite measurements to assess the areal extent and geographical distribution of fires, and have important implications for future measurements to be obtained from space platforms, such as the Earth Observing System.

Phenotypic plasticity of post-fire activity and thermal biology of a free-ranging small mammal.

PubMed

Stawski, Clare; Körtner, Gerhard; Nowack, Julia; Geiser, Fritz

2016-05-15

Ecosystems can change rapidly and sometimes irreversibly due to a number of anthropogenic and natural factors, such as deforestation and fire. How individual animals exposed to such changes respond behaviourally and physiologically is poorly understood. We quantified the phenotypic plasticity of activity patterns and torpor use - a highly efficient energy conservation mechanism - in brown antechinus (Antechinus stuartii), a small Australian marsupial mammal. We compared groups in densely vegetated forest areas (pre-fire and control) with a group in a burned, open habitat (post-fire). Activity and torpor patterns differed among groups and sexes. Females in the post-fire group spent significantly less time active than the other groups, both during the day and night. However, in males only daytime activity declined in the post-fire group, although overall activity was also reduced on cold days in males for all groups. The reduction in total or diurnal activity in the post-fire group was made energetically possible by a ~3.4-fold and ~2.2-fold increase in the proportion of time females and males, respectively, used torpor in comparison to that in the pre-fire and control groups. Overall, likely due to reproductive needs, torpor was more pronounced in females than in males, but low ambient temperatures increased torpor bout duration in both sexes. Importantly, for both male and female antechinus and likely other small mammals, predator avoidance and energy conservation - achieved by reduced activity and increased torpor use - appear to be vital for post-fire survival where ground cover and refuges have been obliterated. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Land use planning and wildfire: development policies influence future probability of housing loss

USGS Publications Warehouse

Syphard, Alexandra D.; Massada, Avi Bar; Butsic, Van; Keeley, Jon E.

2013-01-01

Increasing numbers of homes are being destroyed by wildfire in the wildland-urban interface. With projections of climate change and housing growth potentially exacerbating the threat of wildfire to homes and property, effective fire-risk reduction alternatives are needed as part of a comprehensive fire management plan. Land use planning represents a shift in traditional thinking from trying to eliminate wildfires, or even increasing resilience to them, toward avoiding exposure to them through the informed placement of new residential structures. For land use planning to be effective, it needs to be based on solid understanding of where and how to locate and arrange new homes. We simulated three scenarios of future residential development and projected landscape-level wildfire risk to residential structures in a rapidly urbanizing, fire-prone region in southern California. We based all future development on an econometric subdivision model, but we varied the emphasis of subdivision decision-making based on three broad and common growth types: infill, expansion, and leapfrog. Simulation results showed that decision-making based on these growth types, when applied locally for subdivision of individual parcels, produced substantial landscape-level differences in pattern, location, and extent of development. These differences in development, in turn, affected the area and proportion of structures at risk from burning in wildfires. Scenarios with lower housing density and larger numbers of small, isolated clusters of development, i.e., resulting from leapfrog development, were generally predicted to have the highest predicted fire risk to the largest proportion of structures in the study area, and infill development was predicted to have the lowest risk. These results suggest that land use planning should be considered an important component to fire risk management and that consistently applied policies based on residential pattern may provide substantial benefits for future risk reduction.

Effects of Mountain Pine Beetle on Fuels and Expected Fire Behavior in Lodgepole Pine Forests, Colorado, USA

PubMed Central

Schoennagel, Tania; Veblen, Thomas T.; Negron, José F.; Smith, Jeremy M.

2012-01-01

In Colorado and southern Wyoming, mountain pine beetle (MPB) has affected over 1.6 million ha of predominantly lodgepole pine forests, raising concerns about effects of MPB-caused mortality on subsequent wildfire risk and behavior. Using empirical data we modeled potential fire behavior across a gradient of wind speeds and moisture scenarios in Green stands compared three stages since MPB attack (Red [1–3 yrs], Grey [4–10 yrs], and Old-MPB [∼30 yrs]). MPB killed 50% of the trees and 70% of the basal area in Red and Grey stages. Across moisture scenarios, canopy fuel moisture was one-third lower in Red and Grey stages compared to the Green stage, making active crown fire possible at lower wind speeds and less extreme moisture conditions. More-open canopies and high loads of large surface fuels due to treefall in Grey and Old-MPB stages significantly increased surface fireline intensities, facilitating active crown fire at lower wind speeds (>30–55 km/hr) across all moisture scenarios. Not accounting for low foliar moistures in Red and Grey stages, and large surface fuels in Grey and Old-MPB stages, underestimates the occurrence of active crown fire. Under extreme burning conditions, minimum wind speeds for active crown fire were 25–35 km/hr lower for Red, Grey and Old-MPB stands compared to Green. However, if transition to crown fire occurs (outside the stand, or within the stand via ladder fuels or wind gusts >65 km/hr), active crown fire would be sustained at similar wind speeds, suggesting observed fire behavior may not be qualitatively different among MPB stages under extreme burning conditions. Overall, the risk (probability) of active crown fire appears elevated in MPB-affected stands, but the predominant fire hazard (crown fire) is similar across MPB stages and is characteristic of lodgepole pine forests where extremely dry, gusty weather conditions are key factors in determining fire behavior. PMID:22272268

Inhibition linearizes firing rate responses in human motor units: implications for the role of persistent inward currents.

PubMed

Revill, Ann L; Fuglevand, Andrew J

2017-01-01

Motor neurons are the output neurons of the central nervous system and are responsible for controlling muscle contraction. When initially activated during voluntary contraction, firing rates of motor neurons increase steeply but then level out at modest rates. Activation of an intrinsic source of excitatory current at recruitment onset may underlie the initial steep increase in firing rate in motor neurons. We attempted to disable this intrinsic excitatory current by artificially activating an inhibitory reflex. When motor neuron activity was recorded while the inhibitory reflex was engaged, firing rates no longer increased steeply, suggesting that the intrinsic excitatory current was probably responsible for the initial sharp rise in motor neuron firing rate. During graded isometric contractions, motor unit (MU) firing rates increase steeply upon recruitment but then level off at modest rates even though muscle force continues to increase. The mechanisms underlying such firing behaviour are not known although activation of persistent inward currents (PICs) might be involved. PICs are intrinsic, voltage-dependent currents that activate strongly when motor neurons (MNs) are first recruited. Such activation might cause a sharp escalation in depolarizing current and underlie the steep initial rise in MU firing rate. Because PICs can be disabled with synaptic inhibition, we hypothesized that artificial activation of an inhibitory pathway might curb this initial steep rise in firing rate. To test this, human subjects performed slow triangular ramp contractions of the ankle dorsiflexors in the absence and presence of tonic synaptic inhibition delivered to tibialis anterior (TA) MNs by sural nerve stimulation. Firing rate profiles (expressed as a function of contraction force) of TA MUs recorded during these tasks were compared for control and stimulation conditions. Under control conditions, during the ascending phase of the triangular contractions, 93% of the firing rate profiles were best fitted by rising exponential functions. With stimulation, however, firing rate profiles were best fitted with linear functions or with less steeply rising exponentials. Firing rate profiles for the descending phases of the contractions were best fitted with linear functions for both control and stimulation conditions. These results seem consistent with the idea that PICs contribute to non-linear firing rate profiles during ascending but not descending phases of contractions. © 2016 The Authors. The Journal of Physiology © 2016 The Physiological Society.

Water, land, fire, and forest: Multi-scale determinants of rainforests in the Australian monsoon tropics.

PubMed

Ondei, Stefania; Prior, Lynda D; Williamson, Grant J; Vigilante, Tom; Bowman, David M J S

2017-03-01

The small rainforest fragments found in savanna landscapes are powerful, yet often overlooked, model systems to understand the controls of these contrasting ecosystems. We analyzed the relative effect of climatic variables on rainforest density at a subcontinental level, and employed high-resolution, regional-level analyses to assess the importance of landscape settings and fire activity in determining rainforest density in a frequently burnt Australian savanna landscape. Estimates of rainforest density (ha/km 2 ) across the Northern Territory and Western Australia, derived from preexisting maps, were used to calculate the correlations between rainforest density and climatic variables. A detailed map of the northern Kimberley (Western Australia) rainforests was generated and analyzed to determine the importance of geology and topography in controlling rainforests, and to contrast rainforest density on frequently burnt mainland and nearby islands. In the northwestern Australian, tropics rainforest density was positively correlated with rainfall and moisture index, and negatively correlated with potential evapotranspiration. At a regional scale, rainforests showed preference for complex topographic positions and more fertile geology. Compared with mainland areas, islands had significantly lower fire activity, with no differences between terrain types. They also displayed substantially higher rainforest density, even on level terrain where geomorphological processes do not concentrate nutrients or water. Our multi-scale approach corroborates previous studies that suggest moist climate, infrequent fires, and geology are important stabilizing factors that allow rainforest fragments to persist in savanna landscapes. These factors need to be incorporated in models to predict the future extent of savannas and rainforests under climate change.

Cheatgrass percent cover change: Comparing recent estimates to climate change − Driven predictions in the Northern Great Basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Boyte, Stephen P.; Wylie, Bruce K.; Major, Donald J.

2016-01-01

Cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum L.) is a highly invasive species in the Northern Great Basin that helps decrease fire return intervals. Fire fragments the shrub steppe and reduces its capacity to provide forage for livestock and wildlife and habitat critical to sagebrush obligates. Of particular interest is the greater sage grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus), an obligate whose populations have declined so severely due, in part, to increases in cheatgrass and fires that it was considered for inclusion as an endangered species. Remote sensing technologies and satellite archives help scientists monitor terrestrial vegetation globally, including cheatgrass in the Northern Great Basin. Along with geospatial analysis and advanced spatial modeling, these data and technologies can identify areas susceptible to increased cheatgrass cover and compare these with greater sage grouse priority areas for conservation (PAC). Future climate models forecast a warmer and wetter climate for the Northern Great Basin, which likely will force changing cheatgrass dynamics. Therefore, we examine potential climate-caused changes to cheatgrass. Our results indicate that future cheatgrass percent cover will remain stable over more than 80% of the study area when compared with recent estimates, and higher overall cheatgrass cover will occur with slightly more spatial variability. The land area projected to increase or decrease in cheatgrass cover equals 18% and 1%, respectively, making an increase in fire disturbances in greater sage grouse habitat likely. Relative susceptibility measures, created by integrating cheatgrass percent cover and temporal standard deviation datasets, show that potential increases in future cheatgrass cover match future projections. This discovery indicates that some greater sage grouse PACs for conservation could be at heightened risk of fire disturbance. Multiple factors will affect future cheatgrass cover including changes in precipitation timing and totals and increases in freeze-thaw cycles. Understanding these effects can help direct land management, guide scientific research, and influence policy.

Relative effects of climatic and local factors on fire occurrence in boreal forest landscapes of northeastern China.

PubMed

Wu, Zhiwei; He, Hong S; Yang, Jian; Liu, Zhihua; Liang, Yu

2014-09-15

Fire significantly affects species composition, structure, and ecosystem processes in boreal forests. Our study objective was to identify the relative effects of climate, vegetation, topography, and human activity on fire occurrence in Chinese boreal forest landscapes. We used historical fire ignition for 1966-2005 and the statistical method of Kernel Density Estimation to derive fire-occurrence density (number of fires/km(2)). The Random Forest models were used to quantify the relative effects of climate, vegetation, topography, and human activity on fire-occurrence density. Our results showed that fire-occurrence density tended to be spatially clustered. Human-caused fire occurrence was highly clustered at the southern part of the region, where human population density is high (comprising about 75% of the area's population). In the north-central areas where elevations are the highest in the region and less densely populated, lightning-caused fires were clustered. Climate factors (e.g., fine fuel and duff moisture content) were important at both regional and landscape scales. Human activity factors (e.g., distance to nearest settlement and road) were secondary to climate as the primary fire occurrence factors. Predictions of fire regimes often assume a strong linkage between climate and fire but usually with less emphasis placed on the effects of local factors such as human activity. We therefore suggest that accurate forecasting of fire regime should include human influences such as those measured by forest proximity to roads and human settlements. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Prescribed fire effects on activity and movement of cattle in mesic sagebrush steppe

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Prescribed fire has long been used worldwide for livestock and wildlife management. The efficacy of prescribed fire for manipulating grazing animal distribution and diet quality has been well studied in many ecosystems but prescribed-fire effects on activity budgets and movement path characteristic...

The application of space program fire retardant technology to housing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Riccitiello, S. R.; Heising, K. W.

1973-01-01

A review of the NASA fire research and developed fire retardant materials is presented with the objective to analyze and evaluate the concepts and materials to determine the practical applicability to the housing industry. The report presents the NASA materials, their performance in a fire environment and areas where further evaluation is required. The review establishes where advancements in the state of the art have been achieved and points out reasons why these advancements can not be directly applied to the housing industry in the near future.

Impacts of fire management on aboveground tree carbon stocks in Yosemite and Sequoia & Kings Canyon National Parks

USGS Publications Warehouse

Matchett, John R.; Lutz, James A.; Tarnay, Leland W.; Smith, Douglas G.; Becker, Kendall M.L.; Brooks, Matthew L.

2015-01-01

We compared our landscape carbon estimates in YOSE to remotely-sensed carbon estimates from the NASA–CASA project and found that the two methods roughly agree. Our analysis and comparisons suggest, however, that fire severity should be integrated into future carbon mapping efforts. We illustrate this with an example using the 2013 Rim Fire, which we estimate burned an area containing over 5 Tg of aboveground tree carbon, but likely left a large fraction of that carbon on the landscape if one accounts for fire severity.

[Research progress in post-fire debris flow].

PubMed

Di, Xue-ying; Tao, Yu-zhu

2013-08-01

The occurrence of the secondary disasters of forest fire has significant impacts on the environment quality and human health and safety. Post-fire debris flow is one of the most hazardous secondary disasters of forest fire. To understand the occurrence conditions of post-fire debris flow and to master its occurrence situation are the critical elements in post-fire hazard assessment. From the viewpoints of vegetation, precipitation threshold and debris flow material sources, this paper elaborated the impacts of forest fire on the debris flow, analyzed the geologic and geomorphic conditions, precipitation and slope condition that caused the post-fire debris flow as well as the primary mechanisms of debris-flow initiation caused by shallow landslide or surface runoff, and reviewed the research progress in the prediction and forecast of post-fire debris flow and the related control measures. In the future research, four aspects to be focused on were proposed, i. e., the quantification of the relationships between the fire behaviors and environmental factors and the post-fire debris flow, the quantitative research on the post-fire debris flow initiation and movement processes, the mechanistic model of post-fire debris flow, and the rapid and efficient control countermeasures of post-fire debris flow.

Comparison of Interglacial fire dynamics in Southern Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brücher, Tim; Daniau, Anne-Laure

2016-04-01

Responses of fire activity to a change in climate are still uncertain and biases exist by integrating this non-linear process into global modeling of the Earth system. Warming and regional drying can force fire activity in two opposite directions: an increase in fire in fuel supported ecosystems or a fire reduction in fuel-limited ecosystems. Therefore, climate variables alone can not be used to estimate the fire risk because vegetation variability is an important determinant of fire dynamics and responds itself to change in climate. Southern Africa (south of 20°S) paleofire history reconstruction obtained from the analysis of microcharcoal preserved in a deep-sea core located off Namibia reveals changes of fire activity on orbital timescales in the precession band. In particular, increase in fire is observed during glacial periods, and reduction of fire during interglacials such as the Eemian and the Holocene. The Holocene was characterized by even lower level of fire activity than Eemian. Those results suggest the alternance of grass-fueled fires during glacials driven by increase in moisture and the development of limited fueled ecosystems during interglacials characterized by dryness. Those results question the simulated increase in the fire risk probability projected for this region under a warming and drying climate obtained by Pechony and Schindell (2010). To explore the validity of the hypotheses we conducted a data-model comparison for both interglacials from 126.000 to 115.000 BP for the Eemian and from 8.000 to 2.000 BP for the Holocene. Data out of a transient, global modeling study with a Vegetation-Fire model of full complexity (JSBACH) is used, driven by a Climate model of intermediate complexity (CLIMBER). Climate data like precipitation and temperature as well as vegetation data like soil moisture, productivity (NPP) on plant functional type level are used to explain trends in fire activity. The comparison of trends in fire activity during the Eemian (126.000 to 120.000 BP) and the Holocene (8.000 to 200 BP) shows an increase in fire data and in simulated fire. Lower level of fire during the Holocene than Eemian can be explained by differences due to unequal trends in vegetation as a result of climate forcing due to orbital changes: while woody type vegetation plays a major role during the Eemian, the Holocene is influenced by grass land. From the modelling perspective changes in the seasonal precipitation drives the vegetation pattern.

Effects of climate and fire on short-term vegetation recovery in the boreal larch forests of Northeastern China.

PubMed

Liu, Zhihua

2016-11-18

Understanding the influence of climate variability and fire characteristics in shaping postfire vegetation recovery will help to predict future ecosystem trajectories in boreal forests. In this study, I asked: (1) which remotely-sensed vegetation index (VI) is a good proxy for vegetation recovery? and (2) what are the relative influences of climate and fire in controlling postfire vegetation recovery in a Siberian larch forest, a globally important but poorly understood ecosystem type? Analysis showed that the shortwave infrared (SWIR) VI is a good indicator of postfire vegetation recovery in boreal larch forests. A boosted regression tree analysis showed that postfire recovery was collectively controlled by processes that controlled seed availability, as well as by site conditions and climate variability. Fire severity and its spatial variability played a dominant role in determining vegetation recovery, indicating seed availability as the primary mechanism affecting postfire forest resilience. Environmental and immediate postfire climatic conditions appear to be less important, but interact strongly with fire severity to influence postfire recovery. If future warming and fire regimes manifest as expected in this region, seed limitation and climate-induced regeneration failure will become more prevalent and severe, which may cause forests to shift to alternative stable states.