Sample records for future forest management

  1. Characteristics of sustainable forest management

    Treesearch

    Stephen R. Shifley; Francisco X. Aguilar; Nianfu Song; Susan I. Stewart; David J. Nowak; Dale D. Gormanson; W. Keith Moser; Sherri Wormstead; Eric J. Greenfield

    2012-01-01

    Forests can provide numerous benefits to society today, tomorrow, and far into the future. Many in society seek sustainable forest management to ensure that future generations enjoy those benefits. The foundation of professional forest management is “the use of the natural resources for the greatest good of the greatest number for the longest time” (Gifford Pinchot...

  2. Interdisciplinary science for future governance and management of forests.

    PubMed

    Nordin, Annika; Sandström, Camilla

    2016-02-01

    The sustainable use of forests constitutes one of the great challenges for the future due to forests' large spatial coverage, long-term planning horizons and inclusion of many ecosystem services. The mission of the Future Forests programme is to provide a scientifically robust knowledge base for sustainable governance and management of forests preparing for a future characterized by globalization and climate change. In this introduction to the Special Issue, we describe the interdisciplinary science approach developed in close collaboration with actors in the Future Forests programme, and discuss the potential impacts of this science on society. In addition, we introduce the 13 scientific articles and present results produced by the programme.

  3. Seeing the future impacts of climate change and forest management: a landscape visualization system for forest managers

    Treesearch

    Eric J. Gustafson; Melissa Lucash; Johannes Liem; Helen Jenny; Rob Scheller; Kelly Barrett; Brian R. Sturtevant

    2016-01-01

    Forest managers are increasingly considering how climate change may alter forests' capacity to provide ecosystem goods and services. But identifying potential climate change effects on forests is difficult because interactions among forest growth and mortality, climate change, management, and disturbances are complex and uncertain. Although forest landscape models...

  4. Management of Forested Landscapes: Simulations of three alternatives

    Treesearch

    Stephen G. Boyce; W. Henry McNab

    1994-01-01

    Forested landscapes can be managed to support variouscombinations of timber, biological diversity,esthetic values, and habitats. However, all such management decisions arechoices basedon opinions about future events. Opinions underlie managementdecisionsbecause thereis no way to jump into the future, verify a future event, jump back to the present, and make a...

  5. Operational approaches to managing forests of the future in Mediterranean regions within a context of changing climates

    Treesearch

    Scott L. Stephens; Constance I. Millar; Brandon M. Collins

    2010-01-01

    Many US forest managers have used historical ecology information to assist in the development of desired conditions. While there are many important lessons to learn from the past, we believe that we cannot rely on past forest conditions to provide us with blueprints for future management. To respond to this uncertainty, managers will be challenged to integrate...

  6. Simulating post-wildfire forest trajectories under alternative climate and management scenarios

    Treesearch

    Alicia Azpeleta Tarancon; Peter Z. Fule; Kristen L. Shive; Carolyn H. Sieg; Andrew Sanchez Meador; Barbara Strom

    2014-01-01

    Post-fire predictions of forest recovery under future climate change and management actions are necessary for forest managers to make decisions about treatments. We applied the Climate-Forest Vegetation Simulator (Climate-FVS), a new version of a widely used forest management model, to compare alternative climate and management scenarios in a severely burned...

  7. Simulating post-wildfire forest trajectories under alternative climate and management scenarios.

    PubMed

    Tarancón, Alicia Azpeleta; Fulé, Peter Z; Shive, Kristen L; Sieg, Carolyn H; Meador, Andrew Sánchez; Strom, Barbara

    Post-fire predictions of forest recovery under future climate change and management actions are necessary for forest managers to make decisions about treatments. We applied the Climate-Forest Vegetation Simulator (Climate-FVS), a new version of a widely used forest management model, to compare alternative climate and management scenarios in a severely burned multispecies forest of Arizona, USA. The incorporation of seven combinations of General Circulation Models (GCM) and emissions scenarios altered long-term (100 years) predictions of future forest condition compared to a No Climate Change (NCC) scenario, which forecast a gradual increase to high levels of forest density and carbon stock. In contrast, emissions scenarios that included continued high greenhouse gas releases led to near-complete deforestation by 2111. GCM-emissions scenario combinations that were less severe reduced forest structure and carbon stock relative to NCC. Fuel reduction treatments that had been applied prior to the severe wildfire did have persistent effects, especially under NCC, but were overwhelmed by increasingly severe climate change. We tested six management strategies aimed at sustaining future forests: prescribed burning at 5, 10, or 20-year intervals, thinning 40% or 60% of stand basal area, and no treatment. Severe climate change led to deforestation under all management regimes, but important differences emerged under the moderate scenarios: treatments that included regular prescribed burning fostered low density, wildfire-resistant forests composed of the naturally dominant species, ponderosa pine. Non-fire treatments under moderate climate change were forecast to become dense and susceptible to severe wildfire, with a shift to dominance by sprouting species. Current U.S. forest management requires modeling of future scenarios but does not mandate consideration of climate change effects. However, this study showed substantial differences in model outputs depending on climate and management actions. Managers should incorporate climate change into the process of analyzing the environmental effects of alternative actions.

  8. Dry forest resilience varies under simulated climate‐management scenarios in a central Oregon, USA landscape.

    PubMed

    Halofsky, Joshua S; Halofsky, Jessica E; Burcsu, Theresa; Hemstrom, Miles A

    Determining appropriate actions to create or maintain landscapes resilient to climate change is challenging because of uncertainty associated with potential effects of climate change and their interactions with land management. We used a set of climate-informed state-and-transition models to explore the effects of management and natural disturbances on vegetation composition and structure under different future climates. Models were run for dry forests of central Oregon under a fire suppression scenario (i.e., no management other than the continued suppression of wildfires) and an active management scenario characterized by light to moderate thinning from below and some prescribed fire, planting, and salvage logging. Without climate change, area in dry province forest types remained constant. With climate change, dry mixed-conifer forests increased in area (by an average of 21–26% by 2100), and moist mixed-conifer forests decreased in area (by an average of 36–60% by 2100), under both management scenarios. Average area in dry mixed-conifer forests varied little by management scenario, but potential decreases in the moist mixed-conifer forest were lower with active management. With changing climate in the dry province of central Oregon, our results suggest the likelihood of sustaining current levels of dense, moist mixed-conifer forests with large-diameter, old trees is low (less than a 10% chance) irrespective of management scenario; an opposite trend was observed under no climate change simulations. However, results also suggest active management within the dry and moist mixed-conifer forests that creates less dense forest conditions can increase the persistence of larger-diameter, older trees across the landscape. Owing to projected increases in wildfire, our results also suggest future distributions of tree structures will differ from the present. Overall, our projections indicate proactive management can increase forest resilience and sustain some societal values, particularly in drier forest types. However, opportunities to create more disturbance-adapted systems are finite, all values likely cannot be sustained at current levels, and levels of resilience success will likely vary by dry province forest type. Land managers planning for a future without climate change may be assuming a future that is unlikely to exist.

  9. Adapting an IPCC-Compliant Full Forest Carbon Accounting Model to Determine the Effects of Different Forest Management Strategies in California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Starrs, C.; Stewart, W.; Potts, M. D.

    2016-12-01

    As California experiences increasing rates of disturbance events such as wildfire, drought, and insect outbreaks, understanding how different management strategies affect long-term forest carbon stock changes in the forest and in harvested wood products used by society will be key to determining strategies to best maximize forest-related carbon sequestration in the future. California's forest area is roughly evenly split across three ownership types: private timberlands, National Forest timberlands, and reserved forests. Forest management strategies in California generally vary by these ownerships; management in reserved lands sequesters carbon within the forest (i.e. leaves wood in the forest), while on private and National Forest timberlands a significant amount of wood is removed from the forest and converted to harvested wood products. The Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector (CBM-CFS3) is an IPCC-compliant full forest carbon accounting model developed for use in Canada that has been adapted for use in other countries. Changes in natural disturbances in the forest and technological innovation in the use of harvested wood products could substantially alter future carbon trajectories of forests under different management regimes. A key advantage of the CBM-CFS3 model is that in addition to tracking live tree, dead tree, and dead organic matter (DOM) carbon pools in the forest, it also tracks carbon stock changes in harvested wood products. We calibrated the CBM-CFS3 model with US Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) data for seven forest types across three ownership types to predict carbon stock changes under different natural disturbance and harvested wood product utilization futures. Our results illustrate the importance of using a tractable model that can integrate future changes in forest carbon cycling to keep pace with our changing climate and usage of wood products.

  10. Risk of natural disturbances makes future contribution of Canada's forests to the global carbon cycle highly uncertain.

    PubMed

    Kurz, Werner A; Stinson, Graham; Rampley, Gregory J; Dymond, Caren C; Neilson, Eric T

    2008-02-05

    A large carbon sink in northern land surfaces inferred from global carbon cycle inversion models led to concerns during Kyoto Protocol negotiations that countries might be able to avoid efforts to reduce fossil fuel emissions by claiming large sinks in their managed forests. The greenhouse gas balance of Canada's managed forest is strongly affected by naturally occurring fire with high interannual variability in the area burned and by cyclical insect outbreaks. Taking these stochastic future disturbances into account, we used the Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector (CBM-CFS3) to project that the managed forests of Canada could be a source of between 30 and 245 Mt CO(2)e yr(-1) during the first Kyoto Protocol commitment period (2008-2012). The recent transition from sink to source is the result of large insect outbreaks. The wide range in the predicted greenhouse gas balance (215 Mt CO(2)e yr(-1)) is equivalent to nearly 30% of Canada's emissions in 2005. The increasing impact of natural disturbances, the two major insect outbreaks, and the Kyoto Protocol accounting rules all contributed to Canada's decision not to elect forest management. In Canada, future efforts to influence the carbon balance through forest management could be overwhelmed by natural disturbances. Similar circumstances may arise elsewhere if global change increases natural disturbance rates. Future climate mitigation agreements that do not account for and protect against the impacts of natural disturbances, for example, by accounting for forest management benefits relative to baselines, will fail to encourage changes in forest management aimed at mitigating climate change.

  11. The sensitivity of current and future forest managers to climate-induced changes in ecological processes.

    PubMed

    Seidl, Rupert; Aggestam, Filip; Rammer, Werner; Blennow, Kristina; Wolfslehner, Bernhard

    2016-05-01

    Climate vulnerability of managed forest ecosystems is not only determined by ecological processes but also influenced by the adaptive capacity of forest managers. To better understand adaptive behaviour, we conducted a questionnaire study among current and future forest managers (i.e. active managers and forestry students) in Austria. We found widespread belief in climate change (94.7 % of respondents), and no significant difference between current and future managers. Based on intended responses to climate-induced ecosystem changes, we distinguished four groups: highly sensitive managers (27.7 %), those mainly sensitive to changes in growth and regeneration processes (46.7 %), managers primarily sensitive to regeneration changes (11.2 %), and insensitive managers (14.4 %). Experiences and beliefs with regard to disturbance-related tree mortality were found to particularly influence a manager's sensitivity to climate change. Our findings underline the importance of the social dimension of climate change adaptation, and suggest potentially strong adaptive feedbacks between ecosystems and their managers.

  12. Assessing Land Management Change Effects on Forest Carbon and Emissions Under Changing Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Law, B. E.

    2014-12-01

    There has been limited focus on fine-scale land management change effects on forest carbon under future environmental conditions (climate, nitrogen deposition, increased atmospheric CO2). Forest management decisions are often made at the landscape to regional levels before analyses have been conducted to determine the potential outcomes and effectiveness of such actions. Scientists need to evaluate plausible land management actions in a timely manner to help shape policy and strategic land management. Issues of interest include species-level adaptation to climate, resilience and vulnerability to mortality within forested landscapes and regions. Efforts are underway to improve land system model simulation of future mortality related to climate, and to develop and evaluate plausible land management options that could help mitigate or avoid future die-offs. Vulnerability to drought-related mortality varies among species and with tree size or age. Predictors of species ability to survive in specific environments are still not resolved. A challenge is limited observations for fine-scale (e.g. 4 km2) modeling, particularly physiological parameters. Uncertainties are primarily associated with future land management and policy decisions. They include the interface with economic factors and with other ecosystem services (biodiversity, water availability, wildlife habitat). The outcomes of future management scenarios should be compared with business-as-usual management under the same environmental conditions to determine the effects of management changes on forest carbon and net emissions to the atmosphere. For example, in the western U.S., land system modeling and life cycle assessment of several management options to reduce impacts of fire reduced long-term forest carbon gain and increased carbon emissions compared with business-as-usual management under future environmental conditions. The enhanced net carbon uptake with climate and reduced fire emissions after thinning did not compensate for the increased wood removals over 90 years, leading to reduced net biome production. Analysis of land management change scenarios at fine scales is needed, and should consider other ecological values in addition to carbon.

  13. Meeting current and future conservation challenges through the synthesis of long-term silviculture and range management research

    Treesearch

    Mary Beth Adams; Joe NcNeel

    2010-01-01

    The Experimental Forests and Ranges (EFRs) of the Forest Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture were established to represent major forest vegetation types of the United States, to provide guidelines for management of those forests and ranges, and to serve as "outdoor classrooms" for land managers to learn how to better manage their forests. Research data...

  14. Spatial impact assessment of conifer stands in the Hoosier National Forest

    Treesearch

    Richard Thurau; Craig Wayson; Dale Weigel; Jeff Ehman

    2011-01-01

    Forest management decisions on Federal lands must be administered at many spatial and temporal scales. Forest condition, size class, and cover type at the stand level determine how silvicultural practices today will impact management area and overall forest goals in the future. The Hoosier National Forest (HNF) Land Resource Management Plan lists eight goals for...

  15. Simulating the effects of the southern pine beetle on regional dynamics 60 years into the future

    Treesearch

    Jennifer K. Costanza; Jiri Hulcr; Frank H. Koch; Todd Earnhardt; Alexa J. McKerrow; Rob R. Dunn; Jaime A. Collazo

    2012-01-01

    We developed a spatially explicit model that simulated future southern pine beetle (Dendroctonus frontalis, SPB) dynamics and pine forest management for a real landscape over 60 years to inform regional forest management. The SPB has a considerable effect on forest dynamics in the Southeastern United States, especially in loblolly pine (...

  16. Predicting the distribution of a novel bark beetle and its pine hosts under future climate conditions

    Treesearch

    Steven E. Smith; Ma.G. Mendoza; Gerardo Zuniga; Kandres Kalbrook; J.L. Hayes; D.N. Byrne

    2013-01-01

    Understanding the distribution of key biotic elements of forest ecosystems is essential in contemporary forest management and in planning to meet future management needs. Habitat distribution (niche) models based on known occurrences provide geographical structure for such management as the environmental factors change....

  17. Future Wildfire and Managed Fire Interactions in the Lake Tahoe Basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Scheller, R.; Kretchun, A.

    2017-12-01

    Managing large forested landscape in the context of a changing climate and altered disturbance regimes presents new challenges and require integrated assessments of forest disturbance, management, succession, and the carbon cycle. Successful management under these circumstances will require information about trade-offs among multiple objectives and opportunities for spatially optimized landscape-scale management. Improved information about the effects of climate on forest communities, disturbance feedbacks, and the effectiveness of mitigation strategies enables actionable options for landscape managers. We evaluated the effects of fire suppression, wildfires, and forest fuel (thinning) treatments on the long-term carbon storage potential for Lake Tahoe Basin (LTB) forests under various climate futures. We simulated management scenarios that encompass fuel treatments across the larger landscape, beyond the Wildland Urban Interface. We improved upon current fire modeling under climate change via an integrated fire modeling module that, a) explicitly captures the influence of climate, fuels, topography, active fire management (e.g., fire suppression), and fuel treatments, and b) can be parameterized from available data, e.g., remote sensing, field reporting, fire databases, expert opinion. These improvements increase geographic flexibility and decrease reliance on broad historical fire regime statistics - imperfect targets for a no analog future and require minimal parameterization and calibration. We assessed the interactions among fuel treatments, prescribe fire, fire suppression, and stochastically recurring wildfires. Predicted changes in climate and ignition patterns in response to future climatic conditions, vegetation dynamics, and fuel treatments indicate larger potential long-term effects on C emissions, forest structure, and forest composition than prior studies.

  18. Uncertainty in future water supplies from forests: hydrologic effects of a changing forest landscape

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jones, J. A.; Achterman, G. L.; Alexander, L. E.; Brooks, K. N.; Creed, I. F.; Ffolliott, P. F.; MacDonald, L.; Wemple, B. C.

    2008-12-01

    Forests account for 33 percent of the U.S. land area, process nearly two-thirds of the fresh water supply, and provide water to 40 percent of all municipalities or about 180 million people. Water supply management is becoming more difficult given the increasing demand for water, climate change, increasing development, changing forest ownership, and increasingly fragmented laws governing forest and watershed management. In 2006, the US National Research Council convened a study on the present understanding of forest hydrology, the hydrologic effects of a changing forest landscape, and research and management needs for sustaining water resources from forested landscapes. The committee concluded that while it is possible to generate short-term water yield increases by timber harvesting, there are a variety of reasons why active forest management has only limited potential to sustainably increase water supplies. These include the short-term nature of the increases in most environments, the timing of the increases, the need for downstream storage, and that continuing ground- based timber harvest can reduce water quality. At the same time, past and continuing changes in forest structure and management may be altering water supplies at the larger time and space scales that are of most interest to forest and water managers. These changes include the legacy of past forest management practices, particularly fire suppression and clearcutting; exurban sprawl, which permanently converts forest land to nonforest uses; effects of climate change on wildfires, insect outbreaks, forest structure, forest species composition, snowpack depth and snowmelt; road networks; and changes in forest land ownership. All of these changes have the potential to alter water quantity and quality from forests. Hence, the baseline conditions that have been used to estimate sustained water yields from forested watersheds may no longer be applicable. Stationarity also can no longer be assumed for the long-term control watersheds that have served as the cornerstone for most watershed-scale forest hydrology studies. The net result is that forest and water managers are facing greater uncertainty about future water supplies, water quality, and aquatic ecosystems, and their planning must consider a broader range of future scenarios than in the past. In this presentation, we outline a way forward for the research community to address the challenging questions of the future related to forests and water, and we chart a path for the involvement of various stakeholder groups to engage in water resources research, monitoring and policy formation.

  19. Future Forests Webinar Series, Webinar Proceedings and Summary: Ongoing Research and Management Responses to the Mountain Pine Beetle Outbreak

    Treesearch

    M. Matonis; R. Hubbard; K. Gebert; B. Hahn; C. Regan

    2014-01-01

    The Future Forest Webinar Series facilitated dialogue between scientists and managers about the challenges and opportunities created by the mountain pine beetle (MPB) epidemic. The series consisted of six webinar facilitated by the USFS Rocky Mountain Research Station, the Northern and Rocky Mountain Regions, and the Colorado Forest Restoration Institute. The series...

  20. Managing burned landscapes: Evaluating future management strategies for resilient forests under a warming climate

    Treesearch

    K. L. Shive; P. Z. Fule; C. H. Sieg; B. A. Strom; M. E. Hunter

    2014-01-01

    Climate change effects on forested ecosystems worldwide include increases in drought-related mortality, changes to disturbance regimes and shifts in species distributions. Such climate-induced changes will alter the outcomes of current management strategies, complicating the selection of appropriate strategies to promote forest resilience. We modelled forest growth in...

  1. A stochastic forest fire model for future land cover scenarios assessment

    Treesearch

    M. D' Andrea; P. Fiorucci; T.P. Holmes

    2011-01-01

    Land cover is affected by many factors including economic development, climate and natural disturbances such as wildfires. The ability to evaluate how fire regimes may alter future vegetation, and how future vegetation may alter fire regimes, would assist forest managers in planning management actions to be carried out in the face of anticipated socio-economic and...

  2. Achievable future conditions as a framework for guiding forest conservation and management

    Treesearch

    S.W. Golladay; K.L. Martin; J. M. Vose; D. N. Wear; A.P. Covich; R.J. Hobbs; Kier Klepzig; G.E. Likens; R.J. Naiman; A.W. Shearer

    2016-01-01

    We contend that traditional approaches to forest conservation and management will be inadequate given the predicted scale of social-economic and biophysical changes in the 21st century. New approaches, focused on anticipating and guiding ecological responses to change, are urgently needed to ensure the full value of forest ecosystem services for future generations....

  3. Disturbance ecology and forest management: A review of the literature

    Treesearch

    Paul Rogers

    1996-01-01

    This review of the disturbance ecology literature, and how it pertains to forest management, is a resource for forest managers and researchers interested in disturbance theory, specific disturbance agents, their interactions, and appropriate methods of inquiry for specific geographic regions. Implications for the future of disturbance ecology-based management are...

  4. Base-age invariance and inventory projections

    Treesearch

    C. J. Cieszewski; R. L. Bailey; B. E. Borders; G. H. Brister; B. D. Shiver

    2000-01-01

    One of the most important functions of forest inventory is to facilitate management decisions towards forest sustainability based on inventory projections into the future. Therefore, most forest inventories are used for predicting future states of the forests, in modern forestry the most common methods used in inventory projections are based on implicit functions...

  5. North American Forest Futures 2018-2090: Scenarios for Building a More Resilient Forest Sector

    Treesearch

    David N. Bengston; Jonathan Peck; Robert Olson; Melissa Barros; Richard A. Birdsey; Daniel R. Williams; Juan Carlos Leyva Reyes; Francisco José Zamudio

    2018-01-01

    North American forests and forest management institutions are experiencing a wide range of significant ecological disturbances and socioeconomic changes, which point to the need for enhanced resilience. A critical capacity for resilience in institutions is strategic foresight. This article reports on a project of the North American Forest Commission to use Futures...

  6. Bird response to future climate and forest management focused on mitigating climate change

    Treesearch

    Jaymi J. LeBrun; Jeffrey E. Schneiderman; Frank R. Thompson; William D. Dijak; Jacob S. Fraser; Hong S. He; Joshua J. Millspaugh

    2016-01-01

    Context. Global temperatures are projected to increase and affect forests and wildlife populations. Forest management can potentially mitigate climateinduced changes through promoting carbon sequestration, forest resilience, and facilitated change. Objectives. We modeled direct and indirect effects of climate change on avian...

  7. Among-provence variability of gas exchange and growth in response to long-term elevated CO2 exposure

    Treesearch

    James L.J. Houpis; Paul D. Anderson; James C. Pushnik; David J. Anschel

    1999-01-01

    Genetic variability can have profound effects on the interpretation of results from elevated CO2 studies, and future forest management decisions. Information on which varieties are best suited to future atmospheric conditions is needed to develop future forest management practices. A large-scale screening study of the effects of elevated CO

  8. Climate and Management Controls on Forest Growth and Forest Carbon Balance in the Western United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kelsey, Katharine Cashman

    Climate change is resulting in a number of rapid changes in forests worldwide. Forests comprise a critical component of the global carbon cycle, and therefore climate-induced changes in forest carbon balance have the potential to create a feedback within the global carbon cycle and affect future trajectories of climate change. In order to further understanding of climate-driven changes in forest carbon balance, I (1) develop a method to improve spatial estimates forest carbon stocks, (2) investigate the effect of climate change and forest management actions on forest recovery and carbon balance following disturbance, and (3) explore the relationship between climate and forest growth, and identify climate-driven trends in forest growth through time, within San Juan National Forest in southwest Colorado, USA. I find that forest carbon estimates based on texture analysis from LandsatTM imagery improve regional forest carbon maps, and this method is particularly useful for estimating carbon stocks in forested regions affected by disturbance. Forest recovery from disturbance is also a critical component of future forest carbon stocks, and my results indicate that both climate and forest management actions have important implications for forest recovery and carbon dynamics following disturbance. Specifically, forest treatments that use woody biomass removed from the forest for electricity production can reduce carbon emissions to the atmosphere, but climate driven changes in fire severity and forest recovery can have the opposite effect on forest carbon stocks. In addition to the effects of disturbance and recovery on forest condition, I also find that climate change is decreasing rates of forest growth in some species, likely in response to warming summer temperatures. These growth declines could result in changes of vegetation composition, or in extreme cases, a shift in vegetation type that would alter forest carbon storage. This work provides insight into both current and future changes in forest carbon balance as a consequence of climate change and forest management in the western US.

  9. Simulating secondary succession of elk forage values in a managed forest landscape, western Washington

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jenkins, Kurt J.; Starkey, Edward E.

    1996-01-01

    Modern timber management practices often influence forage production for elk (Cervus elaphus) on broad temporal and spatial scales in forested landscapes. We incorporated site-specific information on postharvesting forest succession and forage characteristics in a simulation model to evaluate past and future influences of forest management practices on forage values for elk in a commercially managed Douglas fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii, PSME)-western hemlock (Tsuga heterophylla, TSHE) forest in western Washington. We evaluated future effects of: (1) clear-cut logging 0, 20, and 40% of harvestable stands every five years; (2) thinning 20-year-old Douglas fir forests; and (3) reducing the harvesting cycle from 60 to 45 years. Reconstruction of historical patterns of vegetation succession indicated that forage values peaked in the 1960s and declined from the 1970s to the present, but recent values still were higher than may have existed in the unmanaged landscape in 1945. Increased forest harvesting rates had little short-term influence on forage trends because harvestable stands were scarce. Simulations of forest thinning also produced negligible benefits because thinning did not improve forage productivity appreciably at the stand level. Simulations of reduced harvesting cycles shortened the duration of declining forage values from approximately 30 to 15 years. We concluded that simulation models are useful tools for examining landscape responses of forage production to forest management strategies, but the options examined provided little potential for improving elk forages in the immediate future.

  10. Operational approaches to managing forests of the future in Mediterranean regions within a context of changing climates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stephens, Scott L.; Millar, Constance I.; Collins, Brandon M.

    2010-04-01

    Many US forest managers have used historical ecology information to assist in the development of desired conditions. While there are many important lessons to learn from the past, we believe that we cannot rely on past forest conditions to provide us with blueprints for future management. To respond to this uncertainty, managers will be challenged to integrate adaptation strategies into plans in response to changing climates. Adaptive strategies include resistance options, resilience options, response options, and realignment options. Our objectives are to present ideas that could be useful in developing plans under changing climates that could be applicable to forests with Mediterranean climates. We believe that managing for species persistence at the broad ecoregion scale is the most appropriate goal when considering the effects of changing climates. Such a goal relaxes expectations that current species ranges will remain constant, or that population abundances, distribution, species compositions and dominances should remain stable. Allowing fundamental ecosystem processes to operate within forested landscapes will be critical. Management and political institutions will have to acknowledge and embrace uncertainty in the future since we are moving into a time period with few analogs and inevitably, there will be surprises.

  11. Southern forest science: past, present, and future

    Treesearch

    H. Michael Rauscher; Kurt Johnsen

    2004-01-01

    Southern forests provide innumerable benefits. Forest scientists, managers, owners, and users have in common the desire to improve the condition of these forests and the ecosystems they support. A first step is to understand the contributions science has made and continues to make to the care and management of forests. This book represents a celebration of past...

  12. Using Biodiversity Indicators to Assess the Success of Forecasting Adaptive Ecosystem Management: The Newfoundland and Labrador Experience

    Treesearch

    C. Sean Dolter

    2006-01-01

    This paper reports on an initiative referred to as the Biodiversity Assessment Project (BAP). A suite of tools is being developed to assist forest managers in assessing the predicted future forest conditions of Newfoundland and Labrador’s forests under a variety of management scenarios. Since 1999, the Western Newfoundland Model Forest partnership...

  13. The Missouri Ozark Forest Ecosystem Project: past, present, and future

    Treesearch

    Brian L. Brookshire; Randy Jensen; Daniel C. Dey

    1997-01-01

    In 1989, the Missouri Department of Conservation initiated a research project to examine the impacts of forest management practices on multiple ecosystem components. The Missouri Ozark Forest Ecosystem Project (MOFEP) is a landscape experiment comparing the impacts of even-aged management, uneven-aged management, and no harvesting on a wide array of ecosystem...

  14. Let the market help prescribe forest management practices

    Treesearch

    Gary W. Zinn; Edward Pepke

    1989-01-01

    To obtain the best economic returns from a hardwood forest, you must consider markets. Management decisions made now will affect a stand's future character and value, whether or not the decision results in immediate timber sales. Progressive forest landowners will have a management plan for their woodlots. Typically, such plans are largely land- and resource-...

  15. Adapting land management to emergence of novel site conditions on the continental lowlands of SE Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mátyás, Csaba; Berki, Imre; Bidlo, Andras; Czimber, Kornel.; Gálos, Borbala; Gribovszki, Zoltan; Lakatos, Ferenc; Borovics, Attila; Csóka, György; Führer, Ernő; Illés, Gábor; Rasztovits, Ervin; Somogyi, Zoltán; Bartholy, Judit

    2017-04-01

    The rapid progress of site potential change, caused by the shift of climate zones is a serious problem of lowland management in Southeast Europe. In forestry, the resilience potential of main, climate-dependent tree species (e.g. spruce, beech, sessile oak) and ecosystems is limited at their lower (xeric) limits of distribution. A conventional mitigation measure for adaptive forest management is the return to nature-close management. Severe drought- and biotic impacts in forests indicate however the urgency of fundamental changes in forest policy. To provide assistance in selecting climate-tolerant provenances, species and adaptive technologies for future site conditions is therefore critical. A simplified Decision Support System has been developed for Hungary, keeping conventional elements of site potential assessment. Projections are specified for discrete site types. Processing forest inventory, landcover and geodata, the System provides GIS-supported site information and projections for individual forest compartments, options for tree species better tolerating future climate scenarios as well as their expected yield and risks. Data respectively projections are available for recent and current conditions, and for future reference periods until 2100. Also non-forest site conditions in the novel grassland (steppe) climate zone appear in projections. Experiences for proper management on these sites are however scarce.

  16. The impact and control of major southern forest diseases

    Treesearch

    A. Dan Wilson; Theodor D. Leininger; William J. Otrosina; L. David Dwinell; Nathan M. Schiff

    2004-01-01

    A variety of forest health issues, concerns, and events have rapidly changed southern forests and plantations in the past two decades. These factors have strongly impacted the ways we manage forest pests in the Southern United States. This trend will no doubt continue to shape forest pest management in the future. The major issues and events of concern include changing...

  17. Adaptive economic and ecological forest management under risk

    Treesearch

    Joseph Buongiorno; Mo Zhou

    2015-01-01

    Background: Forest managers must deal with inherently stochastic ecological and economic processes. The future growth of trees is uncertain, and so is their value. The randomness of low-impact, high frequency or rare catastrophic shocks in forest growth has significant implications in shaping the mix of tree species and the forest landscape...

  18. Chapter 15: A desired future condition for Sierra Nevada Forests

    Treesearch

    M. North

    2012-01-01

    An unexpected outcome of U.S. Forest Service General Technical Report PSW-GTR 220, "An Ecosystem Management Strategy for Sierran Mixed-Conifer Forests" (North et al. 2009), was how it generated discussion about a desired future condition for Sierra Nevada forests. The paper did not convey leading-edge research results or provide an exhaustive literature...

  19. [Utilization suitability of forest resources in typical forest zone of Changbai Mountains].

    PubMed

    Hao, Zhanqing; Yu, Deyong; Xiong, Zaiping; Ye, Ji

    2004-10-01

    Conservation of natural forest does not simply equal to no logging. The Northeast China Forest Region has a logging quota of mature forest as part of natural forest conservation project. How to determine the logging spots rationally and scientifically is very important. Recent scientific theories of forest resources management advocate that the utilization of forest resources should stick to the principle of sustaining use, and pay attention to the ecological function of forest resources. According to the logging standards, RS and GIS techniques can be used to detect the precise location of forest resources and obtain information of forest areas and types, and thus, provide more rational and scientific support for space choice about future utilization of forest resources. In this paper, the Lushuihe Forest Bureau was selected as a typical case in Changbai Mountains Forest Region to assess the utilization conditions of forest resources, and some advices on spatial choice for future management of forest resources in the study area were offered.

  20. Outlook for Piedmont forests: a subregional report from the Southern Forest Futures Project

    Treesearch

    Robert B. Rummer; Mae Lee Hafer

    2014-01-01

    The Piedmont, a complex physiographic subregion of the U.S. South, encompasses parts of Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, and Alabama. Anticipating the future and analyzing what the interaction of future changes might mean for the forests of the Piedmont and the services they provide can improve decisions by resource managers and policymakers that have...

  1. The Future of Forest Management on NIPF Lands in the South: Results of an Expert Opinion Survey

    Treesearch

    Steverson O. Moffat; Frederick W. Cubbage; Anthony J. Cascio; Raymond M. Sheffield

    1998-01-01

    A survey was sent to each state forester in the 13 states in the Southeast and South Central Regions to ask their opinions regarding the future of forest management on NIPF lands in their state. The results indicate that changes are in store for NIPF lands between now and 2020. Planted pine is projected to increase 7% in area in the South, largely at the expense of...

  2. Designing Forest Adaptation Experiments through Manager-Scientist Partnerships

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nagel, L. M.; Swanston, C.; Janowiak, M.

    2014-12-01

    Three common forest adaptation options discussed in the context of an uncertain future climate are: creating resistance, promoting resilience, and enabling forests to respond to change. Though there is consensus on the broad management goals addressed by each of these options, translating these concepts into management plans specific for individual forest types that vary in structure, composition, and function remains a challenge. We will describe a decision-making framework that we employed within a manager-scientist partnership to develop a suite of adaptation treatments for two contrasting forest types as part of a long-term forest management experiment. The first, in northern Minnesota, is a red pine-dominated forest with components of white pine, aspen, paper birch, and northern red oak, with a hazel understory. The second, in southwest Colorado, is a warm-dry mixed conifer forest dominated by ponderosa pine, white fir, and Douglas-fir, with scattered aspen and an understory of Gambel oak. The current conditions at both sites are characterized by overstocking with moderate-to-high fuel loading, vulnerability to numerous forest health threats, and are generally uncharacteristic of historic structure and composition. The desired future condition articulated by managers for each site included elements of historic structure and natural range of variability, but were greatly tempered by known vulnerabilities and projected changes to climate and disturbance patterns. The resultant range of treatments we developed are distinct for each forest type, and address a wide range of management objectives.

  3. Chemical ecology and management of bark beetles in western coniferous forests

    Treesearch

    Christopher J. Fettig

    2013-01-01

    The future looks bright for the development and use of semiochemical-based tools in forests, particularly in remote and sensitive areas where other management techniques (e.g., the use of insecticides) may not be appropriate. This editorial provides an concise overview of chemical ecology and management of bark beetles in western coniferous forests.

  4. Forest pest management in a changing world

    Treesearch

    Andrew M. Liebhold

    2012-01-01

    The scope, context and science guiding forest pest management have evolved and are likely to continue changing into the future. Here, I present six areas of advice to guide practitioners in the implementation of forest pest management. First, human dimensions will continue to play a key role in most pest problems and should always be a primary consideration in...

  5. Interactive effects of environmental change and management strategies on regional forest carbon emissions.

    PubMed

    Hudiburg, Tara W; Luyssaert, Sebastiaan; Thornton, Peter E; Law, Beverly E

    2013-11-19

    Climate mitigation activities in forests need to be quantified in terms of the long-term effects on forest carbon stocks, accumulation, and emissions. The impacts of future environmental change and bioenergy harvests on regional forest carbon storage have not been quantified. We conducted a comprehensive modeling study and life-cycle assessment of the impacts of projected changes in climate, CO2 concentration, and N deposition, and region-wide forest management policies on regional forest carbon fluxes. By 2100, if current management strategies continue, then the warming and CO2 fertilization effect in the given projections result in a 32-68% increase in net carbon uptake, overshadowing increased carbon emissions from projected increases in fire activity and other forest disturbance factors. To test the response to new harvesting strategies, repeated thinnings were applied in areas susceptible to fire to reduce mortality, and two clear-cut rotations were applied in productive forests to provide biomass for wood products and bioenergy. The management strategies examined here lead to long-term increased carbon emissions over current harvesting practices, although semiarid regions contribute little to the increase. The harvest rates were unsustainable. This comprehensive approach could serve as a foundation for regional place-based assessments of management effects on future carbon sequestration by forests in other locations.

  6. Capacity of US Forests to Maintain Existing Carbon Sequestration will be affected by Changes in Forest Disturbances and to a greater extent, the Economic and Societal Influences on Forest Management and Land Use

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Joyce, L. A.; Running, S. W.; Breshears, D. D.; Dale, V.; Malmsheimer, R. W.; Sampson, N.; Sohngen, B.; Woodall, C. W.

    2012-12-01

    Increasingly the value of US forest carbon dynamics and carbon sequestration is being recognized in discussions of adaptation and mitigation to climate change. Past exploitation of forestlands in the United States for timber, fuelwood, and conversion to agriculture resulted in large swings in forestland area and terrestrial carbon dynamics. The National Climate Assessment explored the implications of current and future stressors, including climate change, to the future of forest carbon dynamics in the United States. While U.S forests and associated harvested wood products sequestered roughly 13 percent of all carbon dioxide emitted in the United States in 2010, the capacity of forests to maintain this amount of carbon sequestration will be affected by the effects of climate change on forest disturbances, tree growth and mortality, changes in species composition, and to a greater extent, the economic and societal influences on forest management and forestland use. Carbon mitigation through forest management includes three strategies: 1) land management to increase forest area (afforestation) and/or avoid deforestation; 2) carbon management in existing forests; and 3) use of wood in place of materials that require more carbon emissions to produce, in place of fossil fuels to produce energy or in wood products for carbon storage. A significant financial incentive facing many private forest owners is the value of their forest lands for conversion to urban or developed uses. In addition, consequences of large scale die-off and wildfire disturbance events from climate change pose major challenges to forestland area and forest management with potential impacts occurring up to regional scales for timber, flooding and erosion risks, other changes in water budgets, and biogeochemical changes including carbon storage. Options for carbon management on existing forests include practices that increase forest growth such as fertilization, irrigation, switch to fast-growing planting stock and shorter rotations, and weed, disease, and insect control, and increasing the interval between harvests or decreasing harvest intensity. Economic drivers will affect future carbon cycle of forests such as shifts in forest age class structure in response to markets, land-use changes such as urbanization, and forest type changes. Future changes in forestland objectives include the potential for bioenergy based on forestland resources, which is as large as 504 million acres of timberland and 91 million acres of other forest land out of the 751 million acres of U.S. forestland. Implications of forest product use for bioenergy depend on the context of specific locations such as feedstock type and prior management, land conditions, transport and storage logistics, conversion processes used to produce energy, distribution and use. Markets for energy from biomass appear to be ready to grow in response to energy pricing, policy and demand, although recent increases in the supply of natural gas have reduced urgency for new biomass projects. Beyond use in the forest industry and some residences, biopower is not a large-scale enterprise in the United States. Societal choices about forest policy will also affect the carbon cycles on public and private forestland.

  7. Modeling the Effects of Drought, Fire, Beetles, and Management on Future Carbon Cycling in the Western US

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Buotte, P.; Law, B. E.; Hicke, J. A.; Hudiburg, T. W.; Levis, S.; Kent, J.

    2017-12-01

    Fire and beetle outbreaks can have substantial impacts on forest structure, composition, and function and these types of disturbances are expected to increase in the future. Therefore understanding the ecological impacts of these disturbances into the future is important. We used ecosystem process modeling to estimate the future occurrence of fire and beetle outbreaks and their impacts on forest resilience and carbon sequestration. We modified the Community Land Model (CLM4.5) to better represent forest growth and mortality in the western US through multiple avenues: 1) we increased the ecological resolution to recognize 14 forest types common to the region; 2) we improved CLM4.5's ability to handle drought stress by adding forest type-specific controls on stomatal conductance and increased rates of leaf shed during periods of low soil moisture; 3) we developed and implemented a mechanistic model of beetle population growth and subsequent tree mortality; 4) we modified the current fire module to account for more refined forest types; and 5) we developed multiple scenarios of harvest based on past harvest rates and proposed changes in land management policies. We ran CLM4.5 in offline mode with climate forcing data. We compare future forest growth rates and carbon sequestration with historical metrics to estimate the combined influence of future disturbances on forest composition and carbon sequestration in the western US.

  8. Indiana forest management history and practices

    Treesearch

    Sam F. Carman

    2013-01-01

    Indiana's landscape and forests today are largely the result of Ice Age glaciations, Native Americans' use of fire, and over-harvesting in the late 19th and early 20th centuries. Any intentional management of the forest was not generally apparent until the early 1900s. Early visionaries at that time recognized the future impact forest depletion would have on...

  9. The role of remote sensing in process‐scaling studies of managed forest ecosystems

    Treesearch

    Jeffrey G. Masek; Daniel J. Hayes; M. Joseph Hughes; Sean P. Healey; David P. Turner

    2015-01-01

    Sustaining forest resources requires a better understanding of forest ecosystem processes, and how management decisions and climate change may affect these processes in the future. While plot and inventory data provide our most detailed information on forest carbon, energy, and water cycling, applying this understanding to broader spatial and temporal domains...

  10. Management and protection of peri-urban forests of three towns in Greece

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Georgi, J.; Zigkiris, S.; Ftika, Z.; Konstantinidou, E.

    2016-08-01

    The satisfaction of continuous leisure demand in suburban forest requires a proper management of space so as on the one hand to provide better services to visitors and on the other hand to protect against excessive and improper use by guests. In the present study we investigated and analyzed the current situation of the suburban forests of Drama, Limni and Elassona and proposed the appropriate future management. The views of residents are reflected in primary research using a questionnaire (personal interview). The results focus, regardless of the region, to the multiple roles played by suburban forests for urban and suburban areas. The integration of suburban forests and especially of all the urban green as key elements of spatial planning and urban reconstruction of large and small urban centers, are the means that will create favorable conditions for future upgrading of suburban forests in order to sufficiently accomplish a modern triple role; productive, ecological and social.

  11. Roadless area-intensive management tradeoffs on the Sierra National Forest, California

    Treesearch

    Robert J. Hrubes; Kent P. Connaughton; Robert W. Sassaman

    1979-01-01

    This hypothesis was tested by a linear programing model: Roadless areas on the Sierra National Forest precluded from planned future development would be candidates for wilderness designation, and the associated loss in present and future timber harvests could be offset by investing in more intensive management. The results of this simulation test suggest that levels of...

  12. Overview of the Future Forest Webinar Series [Chapter 1

    Treesearch

    Sarah Hines; Megan Matonis

    2014-01-01

    The Future Forest Webinar Series was created to facilitate dialogue between scientists and managers about the challenges and opportunities created by the mountain pine beetle1 (MPB) epidemic. A core team of scientists and managers from the USFS Rocky Mountain Research Station and the Northern and Rocky Mountain Regions worked together to develop the format and content...

  13. Disturbance dynamics and ecosystem-based forest management

    Treesearch

    Kalev Jogiste; W. Keith Moser; Malle Mandre

    2005-01-01

    Ecosystem-based management is intended to balance ecological, social and economic values of sustainable resource management. The desired future state of forest ecosystem is usually defined through productivity, biodiversity, stability or other terms. However, ecosystem-based management may produce an unbalanced emphasis on different components. Although ecosystem-based...

  14. Conservation Easements and Management by Family Forest Owners: A Propensity Score Matching Approach with Multi-Imputations of Survey Data

    Treesearch

    Nianfu Song; Francisco X. Aguilar; Brett J. Butler

    2014-01-01

    Increasingly, private landowners are participating in conservation easement programs, but their effects on land management remain to be addressed. Data from the USDA Forest Service National Woodland Owner Survey for the US Northern Region were used to investigate how conservation easement participation is associated with selected past and future forest management...

  15. Impact of Alternative Timber Management Policies on Availability of Forest Land in the Northeast

    Treesearch

    Owen W. Herrick

    1977-01-01

    Gaging the ability of the forest resource to satisfy future timber requirements is central to solving many problems arising from competition for use of forest land. In this study, production potentials of forest acreage in the Northeastern United States under management alternatives that range from extensive to intensive are weighed against several estimates of timber...

  16. Climate Change and Forests of the Future: Managing in the Face of Uncertainty

    Treesearch

    Constance Millar; Nathan L. Stephenson; Scott L. Stephens

    2007-01-01

    We offer a conceptual framework for managing forested ecosystems under an assumption that future environments will be different from present but that we cannot be certain about the specifics of change. We encourage flexible approaches that promote reversible and incremental steps, and that favor ongoing learning and capacity to modify direction as situations change. We...

  17. Carbon Legacy of Forest Degradation Foregone: can Europe's Forests Contribute to Deep Decarbonization?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kauppi, P.; Nabuurs, G. J.

    2016-12-01

    Contemporary European forests, comprising 161 Mha, play a large role in mitigation of the EU carbon emissions. These intensively managed forests, roughly compensate 10% of EU emissions in forest carbon, in synchrony with the harvest for lumber, fibre and bioenergy, . But this has not always been the case; European forests are recovering since roughly 1850 from thousands of years of human induced degradation. The impact of more recent management is profound and has stimulated a worldwide unique and unprecedented recovery of this forest biome, partly in terms of area, but mainly in forest density that is, biomass per hectare increases. Based on what we know of the recent historic development, can these forests further contribute to deep decarbonization and how? We outline historic development of European forests since roughly 0 AD. We sketch evidence on degradation and deforestation, and on the impact of forest management on restoring the forest growth thus feeding on biomass recovery. We estimate the historical trajectory of the recovery from forest degradation. We discuss the future pathways of European forest resources, and the prospects for the European-model recovery to occur in degraded forests of the other continents. Based on this evidence from the past, we outline what Climate Smart Forestry could mean in the European circumstances aiming to further strengthen this role of European forests. Big scientific challenges remain to understand and project the future development of these forests under climate change and natural disturbances closely entangled with forest management and new demands of industry in the bio-economy.

  18. Translating national level forest service goals to local level land management: carbon sequestration

    Treesearch

    Steven McNulty; Emrys Treasure; Lisa Jennings; David Meriwether; David Harris; Paul Arndt

    2017-01-01

    The USDA Forest Service has many national level policies related to multiple use management. However, translating national policy to stand level forest management can be difficult. As an example of how a national policy can be put into action, we examined three case studies in which a desired future condition is evaluated at the national, region, and local scale. We...

  19. PAST CLIMATES, FORESTS, AND DISTURBANCES OF THE SIERRA NEVADA, CALIFORNIA: UNDERSTANDING THE PAST TO MANAGE FOR THE FUTURE

    Treesearch

    William F. Laudenslayer; Carl N. Skinner

    1995-01-01

    The forests of the Sierra Nevada have been altered for millennia by climate, natural disturbances, and more recently by the activities of humans. Management of these forests and their resources as ecosystems to meet diverse objectives, requires an understanding of the conditions under which existing forests developed and how they have changed through time. Recently...

  20. A framework for evaluating forest restoration alternatives and their outcomes, over time, to inform monitoring: Bioregional inventory originated simulation under management

    Treesearch

    Jeremy S. Fried; Theresa B. Jain; Sara Loreno; Robert F. Keefe; Conor K. Bell

    2017-01-01

    The BioSum modeling framework summarizes current and prospective future forest conditions under alternative management regimes along with their costs, revenues and product yields. BioSum translates Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) data for input to the Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS), summarizes FVS outputs for input to the treatment operations cost model (OpCost...

  1. Accelerating the development of old-growth characteristics in second-growth northern hardwoods

    Treesearch

    Karin S. Fassnacht; Dustin R. Bronson; Brian J. Palik; Anthony W. D' Amato; Craig Lorimer; Karl J. Martin

    2015-01-01

    Active management techniques that emulate natural forest disturbance and stand development processes have the potential to enhance species diversity, structural complexity, and spatial heterogeneity in managed forests, helping to meet goals related to biodiversity, ecosystem health, and forest resilience in the face of uncertain future conditions. There are a number of...

  2. Using landscape disturbance and succession models to support forest management

    Treesearch

    Eric J. Gustafson; Brian R. Sturtevant; Anatoly S. Shvidenko; Robert M. Scheller

    2010-01-01

    Managers of forested landscapes must account for multiple, interacting ecological processes operating at broad spatial and temporal scales. These interactions can be of such complexity that predictions of future forest ecosystem states are beyond the analytical capability of the human mind. Landscape disturbance and succession models (LDSM) are predictive and...

  3. Using DCOM to support interoperability in forest ecosystem management decision support systems

    Treesearch

    W.D. Potter; S. Liu; X. Deng; H.M. Rauscher

    2000-01-01

    Forest ecosystems exhibit complex dynamics over time and space. Management of forest ecosystems involves the need to forecast future states of complex systems that are often undergoing structural changes. This in turn requires integration of quantitative science and engineering components with sociopolitical, regulatory, and economic considerations. The amount of data...

  4. Expanding horizons of forest ecosystem management: proceedings of the third habitat futures workshop; 1992 October; Vernon, B.C.

    Treesearch

    Mark H. Huff; Lisa K. Norris; J. Brian Nyberg; Nancy L. Wilkin; coords.

    1994-01-01

    New approaches and technologies to evaluate wildlife-habitat relations, implement integrated forest management, and improve public participation in the process are needed to implement ecosystem management. Presented here are five papers that examine ecosystem management concepts at international, national, regional, and local scales. Two general management problems...

  5. Future forests of the northern United States

    Treesearch

    Stephen R. Shifley; W. Keith Moser

    2016-01-01

    The U.S. North - the 20 states bounded by Maine, Maryland, Missouri, and Minnesota - have a greater forest cover (42 percent of land area) and population density (194 people per square mile) than other large regions of the nation. Ecological, social, and economic changes anticipated over the next 50 years will profoundly affect future forest management needs and...

  6. Observed and projected C change in the Southeastern US

    Treesearch

    John Coulston; David Wear; Jim Vose

    2015-01-01

    Over the past century forest regrowth in Europe and North America expanded forest carbon (C) sinks and offset C emissions but future C accumulation is uncertain due to the effects of land use changes, management, disturbance, and climate change. Policy makers need insights into forest C dynamics as they anticipate emissions futures and goals. Using a completely...

  7. The ecology and management of moist mixed-conifer forests in eastern Oregon and Washington: a synthesis of the relevant biophysical science and implications for future land management

    Treesearch

    Peter Stine; Paul Hessburg; Thomas Spies; Marc Kramer; Christopher J. Fettig; Andrew Hansen; John Lehmkuhl; Kevin O' Hara; Karl Polivka; Peter Singleton; Susan Charnley; Andrew Merschel; Rachel White

    2014-01-01

    Land managers in the Pacific Northwest have reported a need for updated scientific information on the ecology and management of mixed-conifer forests east of the Cascade Range in Oregon and Washington. Of particular concern are the moist mixed-conifer forests, which have become drought-stressed and vulnerable to high-severity fire after decades of human disturbances...

  8. Reconstructing European forest management from 1600 to 2010

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McGrath, M. J.; Luyssaert, S.; Meyfroidt, P.; Kaplan, J. O.; Bürgi, M.; Chen, Y.; Erb, K.; Gimmi, U.; McInerney, D.; Naudts, K.; Otto, J.; Pasztor, F.; Ryder, J.; Schelhaas, M.-J.; Valade, A.

    2015-07-01

    Because of the slow accumulation and long residence time of carbon in biomass and soils, the present state and future dynamics of temperate forests are influenced by management that took place centuries to millennia ago. Humans have exploited the forests of Europe for fuel, construction materials and fodder for the entire Holocene. In recent centuries, economic and demographic trends led to increases in both forest area and management intensity across much of Europe. In order to quantify the effects of these changes in forests and to provide a baseline for studies on future land-cover-climate interactions and biogeochemical cycling, we created a temporally and spatially resolved reconstruction of European forest management from 1600 to 2010. For the period 1600-1828, we took a supply-demand approach, in which supply was estimated on the basis of historical annual wood increment and land cover reconstructions. We made demand estimates by multiplying population with consumption factors for construction materials, household fuelwood, industrial food processing and brewing, metallurgy, and salt production. For the period 1829-2010, we used a supply-driven backcasting method based on national and regional statistics of forest age structure from the second half of the 20th century. Our reconstruction reproduces the most important changes in forest management between 1600 and 2010: (1) an increase of 593 000 km2 in conifers at the expense of deciduous forest (decreasing by 538 000 km2); (2) a 612 000 km2 decrease in unmanaged forest; (3) a 152 000 km2 decrease in coppice management; (4) a 818 000 km2 increase in high-stand management; and (5) the rise and fall of litter raking, which at its peak in 1853 resulted in the removal of 50 Tg dry litter per year.

  9. Iowa's forest resources, 1974.

    Treesearch

    John S. Jr. Spencer; Pamela J. Jakes

    1980-01-01

    The second inventory of Iowa's forest resources shows big declines in commercial forest area and in growing-stock and sawtimber volumes between 1954 and 1974. Presented are text and statistics on forest area and timber volume, growth, mortality, ownership, stocking, future timber supply, timber use, forest management opportunities, and nontimber resources.

  10. Managing for wildlife: a key component for social acceptance of compatible forest management.

    Treesearch

    A.B. Carey

    2003-01-01

    Why manage for wildlife in U.S. forests? American society demands it. Which species should be favored? The social and cultural value of individual species continue to evolve. Large changes have taken place in less than 40 years; Kimmins (2002) states that changes in societal values have produced “future shock” in the forestry profession, with foresters and their...

  11. Public Debates Shaping Forestry's Future: An Analysis.

    Treesearch

    David Fan; David Bengston

    1997-01-01

    The job of forest managers and policy makers is growing increasingly complex because of rapid change in the social, political, economic, and scientific environments in which forest management is carried out. Managing public lands in ways that are responsive to changing social conditions requires continuous monitoring and assessment. But traditional methods for...

  12. Climate change response framework overview: Chapter 1

    Treesearch

    Chris Swanston; Maria Janowiak; Patricia Butler

    2012-01-01

    Managers currently face the immense challenge of anticipating the effects of climate change on forest ecosystems and then developing and applying management responses for adapting forests to future conditions. The Climate Change Response Framework (CCRF) is a highly collaborative approach to helping land managers understand the potential effects of climate change on...

  13. Management for adaptation

    Treesearch

    John Innes; Linda A. Joyce; Seppo Kellomaki; Bastiaan Louman; Aynslie Ogden; Ian Thompson; Matthew Ayres; Chin Ong; Heru Santoso; Brent Sohngen; Anita Wreford

    2009-01-01

    This chapter develops a framework to explore examples of adaptation options that could be used to ensure that the ecosystem services provided by forests are maintained under future climates. The services are divided into broad areas within which managers can identify specific management goals for individual forests or landscapes. Adaptation options exist for the major...

  14. Effects of climate, land management, and sulfur deposition on soil base cation supply in national forests of the southern Appalachian mountains

    Treesearch

    T.C. McDonnell; T.J. Sullivan; B.J. Cosby; W.A. Jackson; K.J. Elliott

    2013-01-01

    Forest soils having low exchangeable calcium (Ca) and other nutrient base cation (BC) reserves may induce nutrient deficiencies in acid-sensitive plants and impact commercially important tree species. Past and future depletion of soil BC in response to acidic sulfur (S) deposition, forest management, and climate change alter the health and productivity of forest trees...

  15. A management guide for northern hardwoods in New England

    Treesearch

    Adrian M. Gilbert; Victor S. Jensen

    1958-01-01

    Northern hardwood forests occupy about 9 million acres of land in New England. In recent years, these hardwood forests have made increasing contributions to the economy of this region. Their future management should be even more rewarding.

  16. A second look a North Dakota's timber lands, 1980.

    Treesearch

    Pamela J. Jakes; W. Brad Smith

    1982-01-01

    The second inventory of North Dakota forest resources shows a decline in commercial forest area between 1954 and 1980. Presented are text and statistics on forest area and timber volume, growth, mortality, ownership, stocking, future timber supply, timber use, forest management opportunities, and nontimber forest resources. A forest type map is included.

  17. Hope for the Forests? Habitat Resiliency Illustrated in the Face of Climate Change Using Fine-Scale Modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Flint, L. E.; Flint, A. L.; Weiss, S. B.; Micheli, E. R.

    2010-12-01

    In the face of rapid climate change, fine-scale predictions of landscape change are of extreme interest to land managers that endeavor to develop long term adaptive strategies for maintaining biodiversity and ecosystem services. Global climate model (GCM) outputs, which generally focus on estimated increases in air temperature, are increasingly applied to species habitat distribution models. For sensitive species subject to climate change, habitat models predict significant migration (either northward or towards higher elevations), or complete extinction. Current studies typically rely on large spatial scale GCM projections (> 10 km) of changes in precipitation and air temperature: at this scale, these models necessarily neglect subtleties of topographic shading, geomorphic expression of the landscape, and fine-scale differences in soil properties - data that is readily available at meaningful local scales. Recent advances in modeling take advantage of available soils, geology, and topographic data to construct watershed-scale scenarios using GCM inputs and result in improved correlations of vegetation distribution with temperature. For this study, future climate projections were downscaled to 270-m and applied to a physically-based hydrologic model to calculate future changes in recharge, runoff, and climatic water deficit (CWD) for basins draining into the northern San Francisco Bay. CWD was analyzed for mapped vegetation types to evaluate the range of CWD for historic time periods in comparison to future time periods. For several forest communities (including blue oak woodlands, montane hardwoods, douglas-fir, and coast redwood) existing landscape area exhibiting suitable CWD diminishes by up 80 percent in the next century, with a trend towards increased CWD throughout the region. However, no forest community loses all suitable habitat, with islands of potential habitat primarily remaining on north facing slopes and deeper soils. Creation of new suitable habitat is also predicted throughout the region. Results have direct application to management issues of habitat connectivity, forest land protection and acquisition, and active management solutions such as transplanting or assisted migration. Although this analysis considers only one driver of forest habitat distribution, consideration of hydrologic derivatives at a fine scale explains current forest community distributions and provides a far more informed perspective on potential future forest distributions. Results demonstrate the utility of fine-scale modeling and provide landscape managers and conservation agencies valuable management tools in fine-scale future forest scenarios and a framework for evaluating forest resiliency in a changing climate.

  18. Forest resources of southern New England

    Treesearch

    Robert T. Brooks; David B. Kittredge; Carol L. Alerich; Carol L. Alerich

    1993-01-01

    An analytical report of the third forest inventory of the three southern New England states of Connecticut, Massachusetts, and Rhode Island. Included is a discussion of forest area, number of trees, timber volume, tree biomass, timber value, forest wildlife habitat, ownership, management opportunities, and the future of forest resources in southern New England.

  19. Radiative forcing impacts of boreal forest biofuels: a scenario study for Norway in light of albedo.

    PubMed

    Bright, Ryan M; Strømman, Anders Hammer; Peters, Glen P

    2011-09-01

    Radiative forcing impacts due to increased harvesting of boreal forests for use as transportation biofuel in Norway are quantified using simple climate models together with life cycle emission data, MODIS surface albedo data, and a dynamic land use model tracking carbon flux and clear-cut area changes within productive forests over a 100-year management period. We approximate the magnitude of radiative forcing due to albedo changes and compare it to the forcing due to changes in the carbon cycle for purposes of attributing the net result, along with changes in fossil fuel emissions, to the combined anthropogenic land use plus transport fuel system. Depending on albedo uncertainty and uncertainty about the geographic distribution of future logging activity, we report a range of results, thus only general conclusions about the magnitude of the carbon offset potential due to changes in surface albedo can be drawn. Nevertheless, our results have important implications for how forests might be managed for mitigating climate change in light of this additional biophysical criterion, and in particular, on future biofuel policies throughout the region. Future research efforts should be directed at understanding the relationships between the physical properties of managed forests and albedo, and how albedo changes in time as a result of specific management interventions.

  20. [A review on fundamental studies of secondary forest management].

    PubMed

    Zhu, Jiaojun

    2002-12-01

    Secondary forest is also called as natural secondary forest, which regenerates on native forest that has been disturbed by severe natural or anthropogenic disturbances. The structural and dynamic organizations, growth, productivity and stand environment of secondary forests are significantly different from those of natural and artificial forests. Such significant differences make secondary forests have their own special characteristics in forestry. Secondary forests are the main body of forests in China. Therefore, their management plays a very important role in the projects of natural forest conservation and the construction of ecological environment in China or in the world. Based on a wide range of literature collection on secondary forest research, the fundamental studies of secondary forest management were discussed. The major topics are as follows: 1) basic characteristics of secondary forest, 2) principles of secondary forest management, 3) types of secondary forest, 4) community structure and succession dynamics of secondary forest, including niches, biodiversity, succession and so on, 5) main ecological processes of secondary forest, including regeneration, forest soil and forest environment. Additionally, the research needs and tendency related to secondary forest in the future were also given, based on the analyses of the main results and the problems in current management of secondary forest. The review may be helpful to the research of secondary forest management, and to the projects of natural forest conservation in China.

  1. Integrating climate change considerations into forest management tools and training

    Treesearch

    Linda M. Nagel; Christopher W. Swanston; Maria K. Janowiak

    2010-01-01

    Silviculturists are currently facing the challenge of developing management strategies that meet broad ecological and social considerations in spite of a high degree of uncertainty in future climatic conditions. Forest managers need state-of-the-art knowledge about climate change and potential impacts to facilitate development of silvicultural objectives and...

  2. Ecosystem management and our national forests -- is there a role for forest herbicides?

    Treesearch

    Charles K. McMahon; J.H. Miller; D.F. Thomas

    1994-01-01

    Abstract.Environmentally safe, selective herbicide treatments can be adapted to manage habitats and direct succession toward desired future conditions within the principles of Ecosystem Management (EM). Six roles for herbicide treatments in EM are suggested: create and maintain desired habitats; create mixed and unevenaged stands; restore damaged...

  3. Webinar summary: Important findings for managers [Chapter 2

    Treesearch

    Claudia Regan

    2014-01-01

    This chapter summarizes key findings and offers take-home messages of the Future Forest Webinar Series with regard to resource management planning, analyses, and project design. In the wake of the mountain pine beetle (MPB) epidemic, resource managers are especially concerned with developing more resilient forests, providing for the sustainability of wildlife and fish...

  4. NED-2 User's Guide

    Treesearch

    Mark J. Twery; Peter D. Knopp; Scott A. Thomasma; Donald E. Nute

    2011-01-01

    This is the user's guide for NED-2, which is the latest version of NED, a forest ecosystem management decision support system. This software is part of a family of software products intended to help resource managers develop goals, assess current and future conditions, and produce sustainable management plans for forest properties. Designed for stand-alone Windows...

  5. NED-2 reference guide

    Treesearch

    Mark J. Twery; Peter D. Knopp; Scott A. Thomasma; Donald E. Nute

    2012-01-01

    This is the reference guide for NED-2, which is the latest version of NED, a forest ecosystem management decision support system. This software is part of a family of software products intended to help resource managers develop goals, assess current and future conditions, and produce sustainable management plans for forest properties. Designed for stand-alone Windows-...

  6. Avian community responses to post-fire forest structure: implications for fire management in mixed conifer forests

    Treesearch

    Angela White; Patricia Manley; Gina Tarbill; T. W. Richardson; R. E. Russell; H. D. Safford; S. Z. Dobrowski

    2016-01-01

    Fire is a natural process and the dominant disturbance shaping plant and animal communities in many coniferous forests of the western US. Given that fire size and severity are predicted to increase in the future, it has become increasingly important to understand how wildlife responds to fire and post-fire management. The Angora Fire...

  7. Assessing the relationship between different forms of landowner assistance and family forest owner behaviors and intentions

    Treesearch

    Michael A. Kilgore; Stephanie A. Snyder; Derya Eryilmaz; Marla A. Markowski-Lindsay; Brett J. Butler; David B. Kittredge; Paul F. Catanzaro; Jaketon H. Hewes; Kyle Andrejczyk

    2015-01-01

    In this study, we examine how family forest owners who receive various types of assistance differ from unassisted landowners with respect to their forestland management practices, attitudes and concerns, and future management, use, and ownership intentions. We do so by utilizing a national database containing information on private forest owners and the forestland they...

  8. Translating National Level Forest Service Goals to Local Level Land Management: Carbon Sequestration

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McNulty, S.; Treasure, E.

    2017-12-01

    The USDA Forest Service has many national level policies related to multiple use management. However, translating national policy to stand level forest management can be difficult. As an example of how a national policy can be put into action, we examined three case studies in which a desired future condition is evaluated at the national, region and local scale. We chose to use carbon sequestration as the desired future condition because climate change has become a major area of concern during the last decade. Several studies have determined that the 193 million acres of US national forest land currently sequester 11% to 15% of the total carbon emitted as a nation. This paper provides a framework by which national scale strategies for maintaining or enhancing forest carbon sequestration is translated through regional considerations and local constraints in adaptive management practices. Although this framework used the carbon sequestration as a case study, this framework could be used with other national level priorities such as the National Environmental Protection Act (NEPA) or the Endangered Species Act (ESA).

  9. Forest management under climatic and social uncertainty: trade-offs between reducing climate change impacts and fostering adaptive capacity.

    PubMed

    Seidl, Rupert; Lexer, Manfred J

    2013-01-15

    The unabated continuation of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and the lack of an international consensus on a stringent climate change mitigation policy underscore the importance of adaptation for coping with the all but inevitable changes in the climate system. Adaptation measures in forestry have particularly long lead times. A timely implementation is thus crucial for reducing the considerable climate vulnerability of forest ecosystems. However, since future environmental conditions as well as future societal demands on forests are inherently uncertain, a core requirement for adaptation is robustness to a wide variety of possible futures. Here we explicitly address the roles of climatic and social uncertainty in forest management, and tackle the question of robustness of adaptation measures in the context of multi-objective sustainable forest management (SFM). We used the Austrian Federal Forests (AFF) as a case study, and employed a comprehensive vulnerability assessment framework based on ecosystem modeling, multi-criteria decision analysis, and practitioner participation. We explicitly considered climate uncertainty by means of three climate change scenarios, and accounted for uncertainty in future social demands by means of three societal preference scenarios regarding SFM indicators. We found that the effects of climatic and social uncertainty on the projected performance of management were in the same order of magnitude, underlining the notion that climate change adaptation requires an integrated social-ecological perspective. Furthermore, our analysis of adaptation measures revealed considerable trade-offs between reducing adverse impacts of climate change and facilitating adaptive capacity. This finding implies that prioritization between these two general aims of adaptation is necessary in management planning, which we suggest can draw on uncertainty analysis: Where the variation induced by social-ecological uncertainty renders measures aiming to reduce climate change impacts statistically insignificant (i.e., for approximately one third of the investigated management units of the AFF case study), fostering adaptive capacity is suggested as the preferred pathway for adaptation. We conclude that climate change adaptation needs to balance between anticipating expected future conditions and building the capacity to address unknowns and surprises. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Raw materials from the public lands in century 21

    Treesearch

    H. Fred Kaiser; James E. Granskog

    1996-01-01

    Forest management on public lands is undergoing fundamental change. To understand forest management on U.S. public lands in the future, an understanding of the concept of ecosystem management will be needed. Ecosystem management is not a goal unto itself, but a means to an endCand that end goal is sustainability of all resources. A number of commitments have been made...

  11. Intensive management – can the South really live without it?

    Treesearch

    James M. Guldin; T. Bently Wigley

    1998-01-01

    Over the past five years, the public and private sectors have debated the future of forest management and its implications for the next century. In the public sector, resource managers have debated the meaning and significance of "ecosystem management," a term coined in 1992 by then-Forest Service Chief F. Dale Robertson; he suggested that this approach to...

  12. Carbon concentrations and carbon pool distributions in dry, moist, and cold mid-aged forests of the Rocky Mountains

    Treesearch

    Theresa B. Jain; Russell T. Graham; David Adams

    2010-01-01

    Although "carbon” management may not be a primary objective in forest management, influencing the distribution, composition, growth, and development of biomass to fulfill multiple objectives is; therefore, given a changing climate, managing carbon could influence future management decisions. Also, typically, the conversion from total biomass to total carbon is 50...

  13. Science-based approach for credible accounting of mitigation in managed forests.

    PubMed

    Grassi, Giacomo; Pilli, Roberto; House, Jo; Federici, Sandro; Kurz, Werner A

    2018-05-17

    The credibility and effectiveness of country climate targets under the Paris Agreement requires that, in all greenhouse gas (GHG) sectors, the accounted mitigation outcomes reflect genuine deviations from the type and magnitude of activities generating emissions in the base year or baseline. This is challenging for the forestry sector, as the future net emissions can change irrespective of actual management activities, because of age-related stand dynamics resulting from past management and natural disturbances. The solution implemented under the Kyoto Protocol (2013-2020) was accounting mitigation as deviation from a projected (forward-looking) "forest reference level", which considered the age-related dynamics but also allowed including the assumed future implementation of approved policies. This caused controversies, as unverifiable counterfactual scenarios with inflated future harvest could lead to credits where no change in management has actually occurred, or conversely, failing to reflect in the accounts a policy-driven increase in net emissions. Instead, here we describe an approach to set reference levels based on the projected continuation of documented historical forest management practice, i.e. reflecting age-related dynamics but not the future impact of policies. We illustrate a possible method to implement this approach at the level of the European Union (EU) using the Carbon Budget Model. Using EU country data, we show that forest sinks between 2013 and 2016 were greater than that assumed in the 2013-2020 EU reference level under the Kyoto Protocol, which would lead to credits of 110-120 Mt CO 2 /year (capped at 70-80 Mt CO 2 /year, equivalent to 1.3% of 1990 EU total emissions). By modelling the continuation of management practice documented historically (2000-2009), we show that these credits are mostly due to the inclusion in the reference levels of policy-assumed harvest increases that never materialized. With our proposed approach, harvest is expected to increase (12% in 2030 at EU-level, relative to 2000-2009), but more slowly than in current forest reference levels, and only because of age-related dynamics, i.e. increased growing stocks in maturing forests. Our science-based approach, compatible with the EU post-2020 climate legislation, helps to ensure that only genuine deviations from the continuation of historically documented forest management practices are accounted toward climate targets, therefore enhancing the consistency and comparability across GHG sectors. It provides flexibility for countries to increase harvest in future reference levels when justified by age-related dynamics. It offers a policy-neutral solution to the polarized debate on forest accounting (especially on bioenergy) and supports the credibility of forest sector mitigation under the Paris Agreement.

  14. Disturbance and the carbon balance of US forests: A quantitative review of impacts from harvests, fires, insects, and droughts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Williams, Christopher A.; Gu, Huan; MacLean, Richard; Masek, Jeffrey G.; Collatz, G. James

    2016-08-01

    Disturbances are a major determinant of forest carbon stocks and uptake. They generally reduce land carbon stocks but also initiate a regrowth legacy that contributes substantially to the contemporary rate of carbon stock increase in US forestlands. As managers and policy makers increasingly look to forests for climate protection and mitigation, and because of increasing concern about changes in disturbance intensity and frequency, there is a need for synthesis and integration of current understanding about the role of disturbances and other processes in governing forest carbon cycle dynamics, and the likely future of this and other sinks for atmospheric carbon. This paper aims to address that need by providing a quantitative review of the distribution, extent and carbon impacts of the major disturbances active in the US. We also review recent trends in disturbances, climate, and other global environmental changes and consider their individual and collective contributions to the US carbon budget now and in the likely future. Lastly, we identify some key challenges and opportunities for future research needed to improve current understanding, advance predictive capabilities, and inform forest management in the face of these pressures. Harvest is found to be the most extensive disturbance both in terms of area and carbon impacts, followed by fire, windthrow and bark beetles, and lastly droughts. Collectively these lead to the gross loss of about 200 Tg C y- 1 in live biomass annually across the conterminous US. At the same time, the net change in forest carbon stocks is positive (190 Tg C y- 1), indicating not only forest resilience but also an apparently large response to growth enhancements such as fertilization by CO2 and nitrogen. Uncertainty about disturbance legacies, disturbance interactions, likely trends, and global change factors make the future of the US forest carbon sink unclear. While there is scope for management to enhance carbon sinks in US forests, tradeoffs with other values and uses are likely to significantly limit practical implementation. Continued and expanded remote sensing and field-based monitoring capabilities and manipulative experimentation are needed to improve understanding of the US forest carbon sink, and assess how disturbance processes are responding to the pressures of global environmental change. In addition, continued development and application of holistic, decision support tools that consider a range of forest values are needed to enable managers and policy makers to use the best available information for guiding forest resources now and into the future.

  15. Disturbance and the Carbon Balance of US Forests: A Quantitative Review of Impacts from Harvests, Fires, Insects, and Droughts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Williams, Christopher A.; Gu, Huan; MacLean, Richard; Masek, Jeffrey G.; Collatz, G. James

    2016-01-01

    Disturbances are a major determinant of forest carbon stocks and uptake. They generally reduce land carbon stocks but also initiate a regrowth legacy that contributes substantially to the contemporary rate of carbon stock increase in US forestlands. As managers and policy makers increasingly look to forests for climate protection and mitigation, and because of increasing concern about changes in disturbance intensity and frequency, there is a need for synthesis and integration of current understanding about the role of disturbances and other processes in governing forest carbon cycle dynamics, and the likely future of this and other sinks for atmospheric carbon. This paper aims to address that need by providing a quantitative review of the distribution, extent and carbon impacts of the major disturbances active in the US. We also review recent trends in disturbances, climate, and other global environmental changes and consider their individual and collective contributions to the US carbon budget now and in the likely future. Lastly, we identify some key challenges and opportunities for future research needed to improve current understanding, advance predictive capabilities, and inform forest management in the face of these pressures. Harvest is found to be the most extensive disturbance both in terms of area and carbon impacts, followed by fire, windthrow and bark beetles, and lastly droughts. Collectively these lead to the gross loss of about 200 Tg C y(exp -1) in live biomass annually across the conterminous US. At the same time, the net change in forest carbon stocks is positive (190 Tg C y(exp -1)), indicating not only forest resilience but also an apparently large response to growth enhancements such as fertilization by CO2 and nitrogen. Uncertainty about disturbance legacies, disturbance interactions, likely trends, and global change factors make the future of the US forest carbon sink unclear. While there is scope for management to enhance carbon sinks in US forests, tradeoffs with other values and uses are likely to significantly limit practical implementation. Continued and expanded remote sensing and field-based monitoring capabilities and manipulative experimentation are needed to improve understanding of the US forest carbon sink, and assess how disturbance processes are responding to the pressures of global environmental change. In addition, continued development and application of holistic, decision support tools that consider a range of forest values are needed to enable managers and policy makers to use the best available information for guiding forest resources now and into the future.

  16. A stochastic Forest Fire Model for future land cover scenarios assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    D'Andrea, M.; Fiorucci, P.; Holmes, T. P.

    2010-10-01

    Land cover is affected by many factors including economic development, climate and natural disturbances such as wildfires. The ability to evaluate how fire regimes may alter future vegetation, and how future vegetation may alter fire regimes, would assist forest managers in planning management actions to be carried out in the face of anticipated socio-economic and climatic change. In this paper, we present a method for calibrating a cellular automata wildfire regime simulation model with actual data on land cover and wildfire size-frequency. The method is based on the observation that many forest fire regimes, in different forest types and regions, exhibit power law frequency-area distributions. The standard Drossel-Schwabl cellular automata Forest Fire Model (DS-FFM) produces simulations which reproduce this observed pattern. However, the standard model is simplistic in that it considers land cover to be binary - each cell either contains a tree or it is empty - and the model overestimates the frequency of large fires relative to actual landscapes. Our new model, the Modified Forest Fire Model (MFFM), addresses this limitation by incorporating information on actual land use and differentiating among various types of flammable vegetation. The MFFM simulation model was tested on forest types with Mediterranean and sub-tropical fire regimes. The results showed that the MFFM was able to reproduce structural fire regime parameters for these two regions. Further, the model was used to forecast future land cover. Future research will extend this model to refine the forecasts of future land cover and fire regime scenarios under climate, land use and socio-economic change.

  17. Southern Forest Resource Assessment - Technical Report

    Treesearch

    David N. Wear; John G. Greis

    2002-01-01

    The southern forest resource assessment provides a comprehensive analysis of the history, status, and likely future of forests in the Southern United States. Twenty-three chapters address questions regarding social/economic systems, terrestrial ecosystems, water and aquatic ecosystems, forest health, and timber management; 2 additional chapters provide a background on...

  18. Trees for reclamation in the Eastern United States

    Treesearch

    C. W. Moody; Daniel T. Kimbrell

    1980-01-01

    The Alabama Forestry Commission promotes reclamation through forest resource education providing seedlings for reclamation and assistance to industry and landowners. Approximately 85% of the lands mined in 1979 will go into forest production. Good forest management on reclaimed lands will enable Alabama to meet its future demands for forest products.

  19. Built for the future: New directions in silviculture research and demonstration at Montana's Lubrecht Experimental Forest

    Treesearch

    Christopher R. Keyes; Thomas E. Perry

    2010-01-01

    Manipulative experiments at the University of Montana’s Lubrecht Experimental Forest have long been set aside as permanent research and demonstration areas (RDA’s) to communicate the tradeoffs among different stand management strategies. However, most of these have either degraded over time or have diminished relevance to contemporary forest management issues. An...

  20. Using existing thinning studies to investigate the carbon consequences of thinning: learning from the past to craft the future

    Treesearch

    Coeli M. Hoover

    2010-01-01

    Although long-term research is a critical tool for answering forest management questions, managers must often make decisions before results from such experiments are available. One way to meet those information needs is to reanalyze existing long-term data sets to address current research questions; the Forest Service Experimental Forests and Ranges (EFRs) network...

  1. Coast redwood science symposium—2016: Past successes and future direction

    Treesearch

    Richard B. Standiford; Yana Valachovic

    2017-01-01

    There is no more iconic tree or more closely watched forest ecosystem than coast redwood. With its limited range and high value, the coast redwood forest is a microcosm of many of the emerging science and management issues facing today’s forested landscapes. As new information is collected and new management approaches and treatments tried, it is critical that policies...

  2. Tree planting in the south: what does the future hold.

    Treesearch

    Jeffrey D. Kline; Brett J. Butler; Ralph J. Alig

    2002-01-01

    Projected increasing demands for timber coupled with reduced harvests on public lands have led to concern among some forest policymakers regarding the adequacy of future U.S. timber supplies. One question concerns the likelihood that prevailing market incentives will induce industrial and nonindustrial private landowners to intensify forest management.

  3. Harnessing landscape heterogeneity for managing future disturbance risks in forest ecosystems.

    PubMed

    Seidl, Rupert; Albrich, Katharina; Thom, Dominik; Rammer, Werner

    2018-03-01

    In order to prevent irreversible impacts of climate change on the biosphere it is imperative to phase out the use of fossil fuels. Consequently, the provisioning of renewable resources such as timber and biomass from forests is an ecosystem service of increasing importance. However, risk factors such as changing disturbance regimes are challenging the continuous provisioning of ecosystem services, and are thus a key concern in forest management. We here used simulation modeling to study different risk management strategies in the context of timber production under changing climate and disturbance regimes, focusing on a 8127 ha forest landscape in the Northern Front Range of the Alps in Austria. We show that under a continuation of historical management, disturbances from wind and bark beetles increase by +39.5% on average over 200 years in response to future climate change. Promoting mixed forests and climate-adapted tree species as well as increasing management intensity effectively reduced future disturbance risk. Analyzing the spatial patterns of disturbance on the landscape, we found a highly uneven distribution of risk among stands (Gini coefficients up to 0.466), but also a spatially variable effectiveness of silvicultural risk reduction measures. This spatial variability in the contribution to and control of risk can be used to inform disturbance management: Stands which have a high leverage on overall risk and for which risks can effectively be reduced (24.4% of the stands in our simulations) should be a priority for risk mitigation measures. In contrast, management should embrace natural disturbances for their beneficial effects on biodiversity in areas which neither contribute strongly to landscape-scale risk nor respond positively to risk mitigation measures (16.9% of stands). We here illustrate how spatial heterogeneity in forest landscapes can be harnessed to address both positive and negative effects of changing natural disturbance regimes in ecosystem management. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Harnessing landscape heterogeneity for managing future disturbance risks in forest ecosystems

    PubMed Central

    Seidl, Rupert; Albrich, Katharina; Thom, Dominik; Rammer, Werner

    2018-01-01

    In order to prevent irreversible impacts of climate change on the biosphere it is imperative to phase out the use of fossil fuels. Consequently, the provisioning of renewable resources such as timber and biomass from forests is an ecosystem service of increasing importance. However, risk factors such as changing disturbance regimes are challenging the continuous provisioning of ecosystem services, and are thus a key concern in forest management. We here used simulation modeling to study different risk management strategies in the context of timber production under changing climate and disturbance regimes, focusing on a 8127 ha forest landscape in the Northern Front Range of the Alps in Austria. We show that under a continuation of historical management, disturbances from wind and bark beetles increase by +39.5% on average over 200 years in response to future climate change. Promoting mixed forests and climate-adapted tree species as well as increasing management intensity effectively reduced future disturbance risk. Analyzing the spatial patterns of disturbance on the landscape, we found a highly uneven distribution of risk among stands (Gini coefficients up to 0.466), but also a spatially variable effectiveness of silvicultural risk reduction measures. This spatial variability in the contribution to and control of risk can be used to inform disturbance management: Stands which have a high leverage on overall risk and for which risks can effectively be reduced (24.4% of the stands in our simulations) should be a priority for risk mitigation measures. In contrast, management should embrace natural disturbances for their beneficial effects on biodiversity in areas which neither contribute strongly to landscape-scale risk nor respond positively to risk mitigation measures (16.9% of stands). We here illustrate how spatial heterogeneity in forest landscapes can be harnessed to address both positive and negative effects of changing natural disturbance regimes in ecosystem management. PMID:29275284

  5. 76 FR 315 - Sisters Ranger District; Deschutes National Forest; Oregon; Popper Vegetation Management Project

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-01-04

    ... would be located on National Forest System lands south of the city of Sisters, Oregon; east of the Three... acre Cascade Timberlands property which is being considered as a future Community Forest. The legal...

  6. Forest ecosystems: Vegetation, disturbance, and economics: Chapter 5

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Littell, Jeremy S.; Hicke, Jeffrey A.; Shafer, Sarah L.; Capalbo, Susan M.; Houston, Laurie L.; Glick, Patty

    2013-01-01

    Forests cover about 47% of the Northwest (NW–Washington, Oregon, and Idaho) (Smith et al. 2009, fig. 5.1, table 5.1). The impacts of current and future climate change on NW forest ecosystems are a product of the sensitivities of ecosystem processes to climate and the degree to which humans depend on and interact with those systems. Forest ecosystem structure and function, particularly in relatively unmanaged forests where timber harvest and other land use have smaller effects, is sensitive to climate change because climate has a strong influence on ecosystem processes. Climate can affect forest structure directly through its control of plan physiology and life history (establishment, individual growth, productivity, and morality) or indirectly through its control of disturbance (fire, insects, disease). As climate changes, many forest processes will be affected, altering ecosystem services such as timber production and recreation. These changes have socioeconomic implications (e.g. for timber economies) and will require changes to current management of forests. Climate and management will interact to determine the forests of the future, and the scientific basis for adaptation to climate change in forests thus depends significantly on how forests will be affected.

  7. Forest management in Northeast China: history, problems, and challenges.

    PubMed

    Yu, Dapao; Zhou, Li; Zhou, Wangming; Ding, Hong; Wang, Qingwei; Wang, Yue; Wu, Xiaoqing; Dai, Limin

    2011-12-01

    Studies of the history and current status of forest resources in Northeast China have become important in discussions of sustainable forest management in the region. Prior to 1998, excessive logging and neglected cultivation led to a series of problems that left exploitable forest reserves in the region almost exhausted. A substantial decrease in the area of natural forests was accompanied by severe disruption of stand structure and serious degradation of overall forest quality and function. In 1998, China shifted the primary focus of forest management in the country from wood production to ecological sustainability, adopting ecological restoration and protection as key foci of management. In the process, China launched the Natural Forest Conversion Program and implemented a new system of Classification-based Forest Management. Since then, timber harvesting levels in Northeast China have decreased, and forest area and stocking levels have slowly increased. At present, the large area of low quality secondary forest lands, along with high levels of timber production, present researchers and government agencies in China with major challenges in deciding on management models and strategies that will best protect, restore and manage so large an area of secondary forest lands. This paper synthesizes information from a number of sources on forest area, stand characteristics and stocking levels, and forest policy changes in Northeastern China. Following a brief historical overview of forest harvesting and ecological research in Northeast China, the paper discusses the current state of forest resources and related problems in forest management in the region, concluding with key challenges in need of attention in order to meet the demands for multi-purpose forest sustainability and management in the future.

  8. GIS-based probability assessment of natural hazards in forested landscapes of Central and South-Eastern Europe.

    PubMed

    Lorz, C; Fürst, C; Galic, Z; Matijasic, D; Podrazky, V; Potocic, N; Simoncic, P; Strauch, M; Vacik, H; Makeschin, F

    2010-12-01

    We assessed the probability of three major natural hazards--windthrow, drought, and forest fire--for Central and South-Eastern European forests which are major threats for the provision of forest goods and ecosystem services. In addition, we analyzed spatial distribution and implications for a future oriented management of forested landscapes. For estimating the probability of windthrow, we used rooting depth and average wind speed. Probabilities of drought and fire were calculated from climatic and total water balance during growing season. As an approximation to climate change scenarios, we used a simplified approach with a general increase of pET by 20%. Monitoring data from the pan-European forests crown condition program and observed burnt areas and hot spots from the European Forest Fire Information System were used to test the plausibility of probability maps. Regions with high probabilities of natural hazard are identified and management strategies to minimize probability of natural hazards are discussed. We suggest future research should focus on (i) estimating probabilities using process based models (including sensitivity analysis), (ii) defining probability in terms of economic loss, (iii) including biotic hazards, (iv) using more detailed data sets on natural hazards, forest inventories and climate change scenarios, and (v) developing a framework of adaptive risk management.

  9. Land-use history as a major driver for long-term forest dynamics in the Sierra de Guadarrama National Park (central Spain) during the last millennia: implications for forest conservation and management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Morales-Molino, César; Colombaroli, Daniele; Valbuena-Carabaña, María; Tinner, Willy; Salomón, Roberto L.; Carrión, José S.; Gil, Luis

    2017-05-01

    In the Mediterranean Basin, long-lasting human activities have largely resulted in forest degradation or destruction. Consequently, conservation efforts aimed at preserving and restoring Mediterranean forests often lack well-defined targets when using current forest composition and structure as a reference. In the Iberian mountains, the still widespread Pinus sylvestris and Quercus pyrenaica woodlands have been heavily impacted by land-use. To assess future developments and as a baseline for planning, forest managers are interested in understanding the origins of present ecosystems to disclose effects on forest composition that may influence future vegetation trajectories. Quantification of land-use change is particularly interesting to understand vegetation responses. Here we use three well-dated multi-proxy palaeoecological sequences from the Guadarrama Mountains (central Spain) to quantitatively reconstruct changes occurred in P. sylvestris forests and the P. sylvestris-Q. pyrenaica ecotone at multi-decadal to millennial timescales, and assess the driving factors. Our results show millennial stability of P. sylvestris forests under varying fire and climate conditions, with few transient declines caused by the combined effects of fire and grazing. The high value of pine timber in the past would account for long-lasting pine forest preservation and partly for the degradation of native riparian vegetation (mostly composed of Betula and Corylus). Pine forests further spread after planned forest management started at 1890 CE. In contrast, intensive coppicing and grazing caused Q. pyrenaica decline some centuries ago (ca. 1500-1650 CE), with unprecedented grazing during the last decades seriously compromising today's oak regeneration. Thus, land-use history played a major role in determining vegetation changes. Finally, we must highlight that the involvement of forest managers in this work has guaranteed a practical use of palaeoecological data in conservation and management practice.

  10. Short and long-term carbon balance of bioenergy electricity production fueled by forest treatments

    Treesearch

    Katherine C. Kelsey; Kallie L. Barnes; Michael G. Ryan; Jason C. Neff

    2014-01-01

    Forests store large amounts of carbon in forest biomass, and this carbon can be released to the atmosphere following forest disturbance or management. In the western US, forest fuel reduction treatments designed to reduce the risk of high severity wildfire can change forest carbon balance by removing carbon in the form of biomass, and by altering future potential...

  11. Synthesis: ecology-based landscape planning and management

    Treesearch

    Thomas R. Crow

    2008-01-01

    The words "sustain" or "sustainable" are commonly found in the mission statements of resource management agencies. The mission of the USDA Forest Service, for example, is to "sustain the health, diversity, and productivity of the Nation's forests and grasslands to meet the needs of present and future generations." Sustaining the...

  12. Predicting the Probability of Stand Disturbance

    Treesearch

    Gregory A. Reams; Joseph M. McCollum

    1999-01-01

    Forest managers are often interested in identifying and scheduling future stand treatment opportunities. One of the greatest management opportunities is presented following major stand level disturbances that result from natural or anthropogenic forces. Remeasurement data from the Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) permanent plot system are used to fit a set of...

  13. Carbon sequestration in managed temperate coniferous forests under climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dymond, Caren C.; Beukema, Sarah; Nitschke, Craig R.; Coates, K. David; Scheller, Robert M.

    2016-03-01

    Management of temperate forests has the potential to increase carbon sinks and mitigate climate change. However, those opportunities may be confounded by negative climate change impacts. We therefore need a better understanding of climate change alterations to temperate forest carbon dynamics before developing mitigation strategies. The purpose of this project was to investigate the interactions of species composition, fire, management, and climate change in the Copper-Pine Creek valley, a temperate coniferous forest with a wide range of growing conditions. To do so, we used the LANDIS-II modelling framework including the new Forest Carbon Succession extension to simulate forest ecosystems under four different productivity scenarios, with and without climate change effects, until 2050. Significantly, the new extension allowed us to calculate the net sector productivity, a carbon accounting metric that integrates aboveground and belowground carbon dynamics, disturbances, and the eventual fate of forest products. The model output was validated against literature values. The results implied that the species optimum growing conditions relative to current and future conditions strongly influenced future carbon dynamics. Warmer growing conditions led to increased carbon sinks and storage in the colder and wetter ecoregions but not necessarily in the others. Climate change impacts varied among species and site conditions, and this indicates that both of these components need to be taken into account when considering climate change mitigation activities and adaptive management. The introduction of a new carbon indicator, net sector productivity, promises to be useful in assessing management effectiveness and mitigation activities.

  14. Integrating spatial modeling, climate change scenarios, invasive species risk, and public perceptions to inform sustainable management in mixed hemlock-hardwood forests in Maine

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dunckel, Kathleen Lois

    Introduced invasive pests and climate change are perhaps the most important and persistent catalyst for changes in forest composition. Infestation and outbreak of the hemlock woolly adelgid (HWA, Adelges tsugae) along the eastern coast of the USA, has led to widespread loss of hemlock (Tsuga canadensis (L.) Carr.), and a shift in tree species composition towards hardwood stands. Maine's forest dominated landscape and position at the leading edge of the HWA invasion provides an excellent opportunity to inform sustainable forest management (SFM) practices by using spatially explicit models to predict current tree species distribution, future range shifts, and solicit broad based feedback from Maine residents about forest management goals and preferences. This paper describes an interdisciplinary study of the ecological and social implications of changes in mixed northern hardwood forests due to disturbance. A two stage mapping approach was used where presence/absence of eastern hemlock is predicted with an overall accuracy of 85% and the continuous distribution (% basal area) was predicted with an accuracy of 83%. Given the importance of climate variables in predicting eastern hemlock, forecasts of future range shifts are possible using data generated through climate scenarios. The NASA Earth Exchange (NEX) Downscaled Climate Projections (NEX-DCP30) dataset was used to model future shifts in the geographic range of eastern hemlock throughout the state of Maine. The results clearly describe a significant shift in eastern hemlock range with gains in total geographic area that is suitable habitat. Sustaining forest systems across the landscape requires not only ecological knowledge, but also the integration of multiple socio-economic criteria as well, including data obtained through broad-based public participation approaches. Here, 3000 Maine residents were surveyed and asked how they: (1) value local forests; (2) view forest management goals and threats to forest ecosystems; and (3) evaluate alternative treatment options for the control of invasive species - in this case, HWA. Results suggest that despite Maine's historic dependence on forest products, resident values regarding forests are complex and display agreement with both psycho-spiritual and anthropocentric motivations.

  15. Remote sensing applications in agriculture and forestry. Applications of aerial photography and ERTS data to agricultural, forest and water resources management

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1973-01-01

    Remote sensing techniques are being used in Minnesota to study: (1) forest disease detection and control; (2) water quality indicators; (3) forest vegetation classification and management; (4) detection of saline soils in the Red River Valley; (5) corn defoliation; and (6) alfalfa crop productivity. Results of progress, and plans for future work in these areas, are discussed.

  16. Future timber harvests on the Chippewa and Superior National Forests in Minnesota.

    Treesearch

    Blair Orr; Joseph Buongiorno; Timothy Young; David C. Lothner; Edwin Kallio

    1985-01-01

    Timber harvests on the Superior and Chippewa National Forests in Minnesota are projected to increase substantially by 2030. The increasing demand for aspen may affect the total harvests. Both forests need to give high priority to aspen management.

  17. Storylines of combined land use and climatic drivers and their hydrological impacts in an alpine catchment (Brixental/Austria)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Strasser, Ulrich; Förster, Kristian; Meissl, Gertraud; Marke, Thomas; Schermer, Markus; Stotten, Rike; Formayer, Herbert; Themessl, Matthias

    2017-04-01

    We present a numerical modelling experiment with storylines of coupled land use and climate evolution as input in the physically-based, distributed water balance model WaSiM. The aim is to quantify the effects of these two framing components on the future water cycle. The test site for the simulations is the catchment of the Brixentaler Ache in Tyrol/Austria (47.5°N, 322 km2). The climatic background is defined by simulations for the A1B and RCP 8.5 emission scenarios until 2050. These two climate projections were combined with three future land use developments for forest management, developed in an inter- and transdisciplinary assessment with local actors using plausible and consisent projections for forest management, policy, social cooperation, tourism and economy: (i) Ecological adaptation: The forest management consequently applies the political guidelines, and the forest cover is dominated by an ecological, place-adapted mixed cultivation with a harmonious age structure. (ii) Economical overexploitation and wildness: The increase in efficiency, cost reduction and short term results are in focus of the forest management. (iii) Withdrawal and wildness: Cultivation in general is decreasing, and the forest becomes vulnerable against natural hazards. A new module for snow-canopy interaction simulation, providing explicit rates of intercepted and sublimated snow from the trees and stems of the different forest stands, has been implemented in WaSiM. The new version of the model is used to model the coupled future climate/land use storylines for the Brixental. Results show the effects of climate change and land use on the water balance and streamflow in the catchment.

  18. A Guide to Assessing Urban Forests

    Treesearch

    David Nowak

    2013-01-01

    Urban forests provide numerous ecosystem services. To quantify these services and guide management to sustain these services for future generations, the structure or composition of the forest must be assessed. There are two basic ways of assessing the structure or composition of the urban forest: Bottom-up approach. Field-based assessments to measure the physical...

  19. Responses of dead forest fuel moisture to climate change

    Treesearch

    Yongqiang Liu

    2016-01-01

    Forest fuel moisture is an important factor for wildland fire behavior. Predicting future wildfire trends and controlled burned conditions is essential to effective natural resource management, but the associated effects of forest fuel moisture remain uncertain. This study investigates the responses of dead forest fuel moisture to climate change in the...

  20. Spatiotemporal dynamics of simulated wildfire, forest management, and forest succession in central Oregon, USA

    Treesearch

    Ana M. G. Barros; Alan A. Ager; Michelle A. Day; Haiganoush K. Preisler; Thomas A. Spies; Eric White; Robert J. Pabst; Keith A. Olsen; Emily Platt; John D. Bailey; John P. Bolte

    2017-01-01

    We use the simulation model Envision to analyze long-term wildfire dynamics and the effects of different fuel management scenarios in central Oregon, USA. We simulated a 50-year future where fuel management activities were increased by doubling and tripling the current area treated while retaining existing treatment strategies in terms of spatial distribution and...

  1. Risk management: Core principles and practices, and their relevance to wildland fire

    Treesearch

    Matthew P. Thompson; Donald G. MacGregor; Dave Calkin

    2016-01-01

    The Forest Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture faces a future of increasing complexity and risk, pressing financial issues, and the inescapable possibility of loss of human life. These issues are perhaps most acute for wildland fire management, the highest risk activity in which the Forest Service engages. Risk management (RM) has long been put forth as an...

  2. Future Direction of USDA Forest Service Research

    Treesearch

    A. Dan Wilson

    1995-01-01

    The USDA Forest Service has been involved in Texas oak wilt research since 1976. Despite research successes, there are still many important research areas that have not been addressed or sufficiently investigated to answer the key questions required for making sound disease management decisions. Some of the priority areas planned for future research by the Southern...

  3. Viewing Forests Through a Historical Lens

    Treesearch

    Noreen Parks; Eric [< em> featured scientist< /em> ] Knapp

    2009-01-01

    Past records on fire-resilient, biodiverse stands could offer models for the future.  This year marks the centennial of the Forest Service’s nationwide network of 80 experimental forests and ranges, which serve as field laboratories for long-term studies on the science and management of national forests. At the Stanislaus-Tuolumne Experimental Forest in the central...

  4. Climate-suitable planting as a strategy for maintaining forest productivity and functional diversity.

    PubMed

    Duveneck, Matthew J; Scheller, Robert M

    2015-09-01

    Within the time frame of the longevity of tree species, climate change will change faster than the ability of natural tree migration. Migration lags may result in reduced productivity and reduced diversity in forests under current management and climate change. We evaluated the efficacy of planting climate-suitable tree species (CSP), those tree species with current or historic distributions immediately south of a focal landscape, to maintain or increase aboveground biomass productivity, and species and functional diversity. We modeled forest change with the LANDIS-II forest simulation model for 100 years (2000-2100) at a 2-ha cell resolution and five-year time steps within two landscapes in the Great Lakes region (northeastern Minnesota and northern lower Michigan, USA). We compared current climate to low- and high-emission futures. We simulated a low-emission climate future with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007 B1 emission scenario and the Parallel Climate Model Global Circulation Model (GCM). We simulated a high-emission climate future with the IPCC A1FI emission scenario and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) GCM. We compared current forest management practices (business-as-usual) to CSP management. In the CSP scenario, we simulated a target planting of 5.28% and 4.97% of forested area per five-year time step in the Minnesota and Michigan landscapes, respectively. We found that simulated CSP species successfully established in both landscapes under all climate scenarios. The presence of CSP species generally increased simulated aboveground biomass. Species diversity increased due to CSP; however, the effect on functional diversity was variable. Because the planted species were functionally similar to many native species, CSP did not result in a consistent increase nor decrease in functional diversity. These results provide an assessment of the potential efficacy and limitations of CSP management. These results have management implications for sites where diversity and productivity are expected to decline. Future efforts to restore a specific species or forest type may not be possible, but CSP may sustain a more general ecosystem service (e.g., aboveground biomass).

  5. Carbon profile of the managed forest sector in Canada in the 20th century: sink or source?

    PubMed

    Chen, Jiaxin; Colombo, Stephen J; Ter-Mikaelian, Michael T; Heath, Linda S

    2014-08-19

    Canada contains 10% of global forests and has been one of the world's largest harvested wood products (HWP) producers. Therefore, Canada's managed forest sector, the managed forest area and HWP, has the potential to significantly increase or reduce atmospheric greenhouse gases. Using the most comprehensive carbon balance analysis to date, this study shows Canada's managed forest area and resulting HWP were a sink of 7510 and 849 teragrams carbon (TgC), respectively, in the period 1901-2010, exceeding Canada's fossil fuel-based emissions over this period (7333 TgC). If Canadian HWP were not produced and used for residential construction, and instead more energy intensive materials were used, there would have been an additional 790 TgC fossil fuel-based emissions. Because the forest carbon increases in the 20th century were mainly due to younger growing forests that resulted from disturbances in the 19th century, and future increases in forest carbon stocks appear uncertain, in coming decades most of the mitigation contribution from Canadian forests will likely accrue from wood substitution that reduces fossil fuel-based emissions and stores carbon, so long as those forests are managed sustainably.

  6. Continuing Climate Warming Will Result in Failure of Post-Harvest Natural Regeneration across the Landscape in Interior Alaska

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Morimoto, M.; Juday, G. P.; Huettmann, F.

    2016-12-01

    Following forest disturbance, the stand initiation stage decisively influences future forest structure. Understanding post-harvest regeneration, especially under climate change, is essential to predicting future carbon stores in this extensive forest biome. We apply IPCC B1, A1B, and A2 climate scenarios to generate plausible future forest conditions under different management. We recorded presence of white spruce, birch, and aspen in 726 plots on 30 state forest white spruce harvest units. We built spatially explicit models and scenarios of species presence/absence using TreeNet (Stochastic Gradient Boosting). Post-harvest tree regeneration predictions in calibration data closely matched the validation set, indicating tree regeneration scenarios are reliable. Early stage post-harvest regeneration is similar to post-fire regeneration and matches the pattern of long-term natural vegetation distribution, confirming that site environmental factors are more important than management practices. Post-harvest natural regeneration of tree species increases under moderate warming scenarios, but fails under strong warming scenarios in landscape positions with high temperatures and low precipitation. Under all warming scenarios, the most successful regenerating species following white spruce harvest is white spruce. Birch experiences about 30% regeneration failure under A2 scenario by 2050. White spruce and aspen are projected to regenerate more successfully when site preparation is applied. Although white spruce has been the major managed species, birch may require more intensive management. Sites likely to experience regeneration failure of current tree species apparently will experience biome shift, although adaptive migration of existing or new species might be an option. Our scenario modeling tool allows resource managers to forecast tree regeneration on productive managed sites that have made a disproportionate contribution to carbon flux in a critical region.

  7. Restoration planning on the Okanogan-Wenatchee national forest: prescriptions for resilient landscapes

    Treesearch

    Keith Reynolds; Paul Hessburg; Joan O’Callaghan

    2014-01-01

    Human settlement and land management have radically altered the composition and structure of eastern Washington forests. Restoring high-functioning landscapes and habitat patterns have broad implications for the future sustainability of native species, ecosystem services, and ecosystem processes. Many land managers and scientists have turned their attention to whole...

  8. Conservation assessment for the northern goshawk in southeast Alaska.

    Treesearch

    George C. Iverson; Gregory D. Hayward; Kimberly Titus; Eugene DeGayner; Richard E. Lowell; D. Coleman Crocker-Bedford; Philip F. Schempf; John Lindell

    1996-01-01

    The conservation status of northern goshawks in southeast Alaska is examined through developing an understanding of goshawk ecology in relation to past, present, and potential future habitat conditions in the region under the current Tongass land management plan. Forest ecosystem dynamics are described, and a history of forest and goshawk management in the Tongass...

  9. Decision-support systems for forest management

    Treesearch

    H. Michael Rauscher

    2005-01-01

    The basic concept of sustainable development, formulated in the Brundtland report and applied to forest management by the Montreal Process, has focused attention on the need for formal decision processes (Brundtland. 1987). The application of decision theory is essential because meeting the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to...

  10. Back to the future: assessing accuracy and sensitivity of a forest growth model

    Treesearch

    Susan Hummel; Paul Meznarich

    2014-01-01

    The Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS) is a widely used computer model that projects forest growth and predicts the effects of disturbances such as fire, insects, harvests, or disease. Land managers often use these projections to decide among silvicultural options and estimate the potential effects of these options on forest conditions. Despite FVS's popularity,...

  11. Restoration seed reserves for assisted gene flow within seed orchards

    Treesearch

    C.S. Echt; B.S. Crane

    2017-01-01

    Changing climate and declining forest populations imperil the future of certain forest tree species. To complement forest management and genetic conservation plans, we propose a new paradigm for seedling seed orchards: foster genetic mixing among a variety of seed sources to increase genetic diversity and adaptive potential of seed supplies used for forest restoration...

  12. Forest values and attitudes in the South: Past and future research

    Treesearch

    Michael A. Tarrant; R. Bruce Hull

    2004-01-01

    At the turn of the 20th century, southerners favored economic utilization of forests over environmental protection. Today with few exceptions, southerners rate environmental protection and noneconomic values as higher priorities than economic uses of forests. We consider a vision of forest science and management that reflects the changing values and attitudes of...

  13. Historical (1860) forest structure in ponderosa pine forests of the northern Front Range, Colorado

    Treesearch

    Peter M. Brown; Michael A. Battaglia; Paula J. Fornwalt; Benjamin Gannon; Laurie S. Huckaby; Chad Julian; Antony S. Cheng

    2015-01-01

    Management of many dry conifer forests in western North America is focused on promoting resilience to future wildfires, climate change, and land use impacts through restoration of historical patterns of forest structure and disturbance processes. Historical structural data provide models for past resilient conditions that inform the design of silvicultural treatments...

  14. Southern Forest Resource Assessment - Summary Report

    Treesearch

    David N. Wear; John G. Greis

    2002-01-01

    The Southern Forest Resource Assessment was initiated in 1999 as a result of concerns raised by natural resource managers, the science community, and the public regarding the status and likely future of forests in the South. These included changes to the region’s forests brought about by rapid urbanization, increasing timber demand, increasing numbers of...

  15. A regeneration indicator for Forest Inventory and Analysis: history, sampling, estimation, analytics, and potential use in the midwest and northeast United States

    Treesearch

    William H. McWilliams; James A. Westfall; Patrick H. Brose; Daniel C. Dey; Mark Hatfield; Katherine Johnson; Kenneth M. Laustsen; Shawn L. Lehman; Randall S. Morin; Mark D. Nelson; Todd E. Ristau; Alejandro A. Royo; Susan L. Stout; Thomas Willard; Christopher W. Woodall

    2015-01-01

    The density and composition of regeneration drives future forest character for forests in need of replacement. Forested ecosystems face numerous regeneration stressors including invasive plants, insects and diseases, herbivory, lack of management, and climate change. As stands that make up these systems age, it is imperative to track the viability of forest...

  16. Assessing the uncertainty of forest carbon estimates using the FVS family of diameter increment equations

    Treesearch

    Matthew B. Russell; Aaron R. Weiskittel; Anthony W. D’Amato

    2012-01-01

    Serving as a carbon (C) accounting tool, the Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS) is widely used by forest managers and researchers to forecast future forest C stocks. Assessments of the uncertainty that FVS equations provide in terms of their ability to accurately project forest biomass and C would seemingly differ, depending on the region and scale of interest to the...

  17. The effect of natural disturbances on the risk from hydrogeomorphic hazards under climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Scheidl, Christian; Thaler, Thomas; Seidl, Rupert; Rammer, Werner; Kohl, Bernhard; Markart, Gerhard

    2017-04-01

    Recent storm events in Austria show once more how floods, sediment transport processes and debris flows constitute a major threat in alpine regions with a high density of population and an increasing spatial development. As protection forests have a major control function on runoff and erosion, they directly affect the risk from such hydrogeomorphic processes. However, research on future climate conditions, with an expected increase of the global average surface temperature of 3-5°C by 2100, compared to the first decade of the 20th century, raises a number of open questions for a sustainable and improved hazard management in mountain forests. For Europe, for instance, a climate-induced increase in forest disturbances like wildfire, wind, and insect's outbreaks is highly likely for the coming decades. Especially in protection forests, future scenarios of such climate induced natural disturbances and their impact on the protective effect remain an unresolved issue. Combining methods from forestry, hydrology and geotechnical engineering our project uses an integral approach to simulate possible effects of natural disturbances on hydrogeomorphic hazards in the perspective of future protection forest developments. With the individual-based forest landscape and disturbance model (iLand) we conduct an ensemble of forest landscape simulations, assessing the impact of future changes in natural disturbance regimes in four selected torrential catchments. These catchments are situated in two different forest growth areas. Drainage rate simulations are based on the conceptual hydrological model (ZEMOKOST), whereas simulations of the effect of forest disturbances on hillslope erosion processes are conducted by the Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM). Beside process based simulations, we also emphasis to identify the risk perception and adaptive capacity to mitigate a probable loss of protection functions in forests. For this reason, a postal survey among forestry actors will be performed to assess forest managers concern and willingness to engage in natural hazards management in contrast to the roles of their social network and the roles of political/administrative representatives. We will compare these perceived roles along the dimensions efficacy, attribution of responsibility and trust. This theory-driven approach highlights the motivational structure underlying the willingness to participate in natural hazards initiatives, and allows to tailor policy implications to the needs and capacities of distinct target groups. The outcomes of the investigations shall contribute to the development of adaptive management strategies for forestry administrations at all political levels to mitigate negative effects of climate change in protection forests.

  18. A window of opportunity for climate-change adaptation: Easing tree mortality by reducing forest basal area

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bradford, John B.; Bell, David M.

    2017-01-01

    Increasing aridity as a result of climate change is expected to exacerbate tree mortality. Reducing forest basal area – the cross-sectional area of tree stems within a given ground area – can decrease tree competition, which may reduce drought-induced tree mortality. However, neither the magnitude of expected mortality increases, nor the potential effectiveness of basal area reduction, has been quantified in dryland forests such as those of the drought-prone Southwest US. We used thousands of repeatedly measured forest plots to show that unusually warm and dry conditions are related to high tree mortality rates and that mortality is positively related to basal area. Those relationships suggest that while increasing high temperature extremes forecasted by climate models may lead to elevated tree mortality during the 21st century, future tree mortality might be partly ameliorated by reducing stand basal area. This adaptive forest management strategy may provide a window of opportunity for forest managers and policy makers to guide forest transitions to species and/or genotypes more suited to future climates.

  19. A conspiracy of optimism: Sustained yield, multiple use, and intensive management on the national forests, 1945-1991

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Hirt, P.W.

    1991-01-01

    This study focuses on two core national forest management policies; sustained yield and multiple use. Public and elected officials attempt to apply principles of sustainable development to publicly-owned forest lands to ensure that a wide variety of both market and nonmarket forest values are preserved for the benefit of present and future generations. Interest groups, the Forest Service, and policy makers have conceived of sustained yield and multiple use in different and evolving ways over the years. This study explores how these principles have been variously defined and either implemented or thwarted. After World War Two, with escalating demands onmore » national forest resources, the US Forest Service turned to intensive management as a technological method of enhancing natural forest productivity and mitigating the environmental effects of increased use. But the agency's optimistic vision of efficient, sustained production of forest commodities through technical mastery over nature has met overwhelming fiscal, environmental, technical, and political obstacles. Changing public values since the 1960s and popularization of ecology have initiated a growing skepticism toward the premises of intensive management.« less

  20. Interactions of predominant insects and diseases with climate change in Douglas-fir forests of western Oregon and Washington, U.S.A.

    PubMed

    Agne, Michelle C; Beedlow, Peter A; Shaw, David C; Woodruff, David R; Lee, E Henry; Cline, Steven P; Comeleo, Randy L

    2018-02-01

    Forest disturbance regimes are beginning to show evidence of climate-mediated changes, such as increasing severity of droughts and insect outbreaks. We review the major insects and pathogens affecting the disturbance regime for coastal Douglas-fir forests in western Oregon and Washington State, USA, and ask how future climate changes may influence their role in disturbance ecology. Although the physiological constraints of light, temperature, and moisture largely control tree growth, episodic and chronic disturbances interacting with biological factors have substantial impacts on the structure and functioning of forest ecosystems in this region. Understanding insect and disease interactions is critical to predicting forest response to climate change and the consequences for ecosystem services, such as timber, clean water, fish and wildlife. We focused on future predictions for warmer wetter winters, hotter drier summers, and elevated atmospheric CO 2 to hypothesize the response of Douglas-fir forests to the major insects and diseases influencing this forest type: Douglas-fir beetle, Swiss needle cast, black stain root disease, and laminated root rot. We hypothesize that 1) Douglas-fir beetle and black stain root disease could become more prevalent with increasing, fire, temperature stress, and moisture stress, 2) future impacts of Swiss needle cast are difficult to predict due to uncertainties in May-July leaf wetness, but warmer winters could contribute to intensification at higher elevations, and 3) laminated root rot will be influenced primarily by forest management, rather than climatic change. Furthermore, these biotic disturbance agents interact in complex ways that are poorly understood. Consequently, to inform management decisions, insect and disease influences on disturbance regimes must be characterized specifically by forest type and region in order to accurately capture these interactions in light of future climate-mediated changes.

  1. Nitrogen dynamics in managed boreal forests: Recent advances and future research directions.

    PubMed

    Sponseller, Ryan A; Gundale, Michael J; Futter, Martyn; Ring, Eva; Nordin, Annika; Näsholm, Torgny; Laudon, Hjalmar

    2016-02-01

    Nitrogen (N) availability plays multiple roles in the boreal landscape, as a limiting nutrient to forest growth, determinant of terrestrial biodiversity, and agent of eutrophication in aquatic ecosystems. We review existing research on forest N dynamics in northern landscapes and address the effects of management and environmental change on internal cycling and export. Current research foci include resolving the nutritional importance of different N forms to trees and establishing how tree-mycorrhizal relationships influence N limitation. In addition, understanding how forest responses to external N inputs are mediated by above- and belowground ecosystem compartments remains an important challenge. Finally, forestry generates a mosaic of successional patches in managed forest landscapes, with differing levels of N input, biological demand, and hydrological loss. The balance among these processes influences the temporal patterns of stream water chemistry and the long-term viability of forest growth. Ultimately, managing forests to keep pace with increasing demands for biomass production, while minimizing environmental degradation, will require multi-scale and interdisciplinary perspectives on landscape N dynamics.

  2. Using ecological forecasting of future vegetation transition and fire frequency change in the Sierra Nevada to assess fire management strategies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thorne, J. H.; Schwartz, M. W.; Holguin, A. J.; Moritz, M.; Batllori, E.; Folger, K.; Nydick, K.

    2013-12-01

    Ecological systems may respond in complex manners as climate change progresses. Among the responses, site-level climate conditions may cause a shift in vegetation due to the physiological tolerances of plant species, and the fire return interval may change. Natural resource managers challenged with maintaining ecosystem health need a way to forecast how these processes may affect every location, in order to determine appropriate management actions and prioritize locations for interventions. We integrated climate change-driven vegetation type transitions with projected change in fire frequency for 45,203 km2 of the southern Sierra Nevada, California, containing over 10 land management agencies as well as private lands. This Magnitude of Change (MOC) approach involves classing vegetation types in current time according to their climate envelopes, and identifying which sites will in the future have climates beyond what that vegetation currently occurs in. Independently, fire models are used to determine the change in fire frequency for each site. We examined 82 vegetation types with >50 grid cell occurrences. We found iconic resources such as the giant sequoia, lower slope oak woodlands, and high elevation conifer forests are projected as highly vulnerable by models that project a warmer drier future, but not as much by models that project a warmer future that is not drier than current conditions. Further, there were strongly divergent vulnerabilities of these forest types across land ownership (National Parks versus US Forest Service lands), and by GCM. For example, of 50 giant sequoia (Sequoiadendron giganteum) groves and complexes, all but 3 (on Sierra National Forest) were in the 2 highest levels of risk of climate and fire under the GFDL A2 projection, while 15 groves with low-to-moderate risk were found on both the National Parks and National Forests 18 in the 2 under PCM A2. Landscape projections of potential MOC suggest that the region is likely to experience strong upslope shifting of open grassland, chaparral and hardwood types, which may be initiated by increased fire frequencies, particularly where fires have not recently burned within normal fire recurrence interval departures (FRID). An evaluation of four fire management strategies (business as usual; resist change; foster orderly change; protect vital resources) across four combinations of future climate and fire frequency found that no single management strategy was uniformly successful in protecting critical resources across the range of future conditions examined. This limitation is somewhat driven by current management constraints on the amount of management available to resource managers, which suggests management will need to use a triage approach to application of proactive fire management strategies, wherein MOC landscape projections can be used in decision support.

  3. Timber in Missouri, 1972.

    Treesearch

    John S. Jr. Spencer; Burton L. Essex

    1976-01-01

    The third inventory of Missouri's timber resource shows a small gain in growing-stock volume and a somewhat larger gain in sawtimber volume since 1959. Area of commercial forest declined sharply between surveys. Presented are text and statistics on forest area and timber volume, growth, mortality, ownership, stocking, future timber supply, and forest management...

  4. Forest management under uncertainty for multiple bird population objectives

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Moore, C.T.; Plummer, W.T.; Conroy, M.J.; Ralph, C. John; Rich, Terrell D.

    2005-01-01

    We advocate adaptive programs of decision making and monitoring for the management of forest birds when responses by populations to management, and particularly management trade-offs among populations, are uncertain. Models are necessary components of adaptive management. Under this approach, uncertainty about the behavior of a managed system is explicitly captured in a set of alternative models. The models generate testable predictions about the response of populations to management, and monitoring data provide the basis for assessing these predictions and informing future management decisions. To illustrate these principles, we examine forest management at the Piedmont National Wildlife Refuge, where management attention is focused on the recovery of the Red-cockaded Woodpecker (Picoides borealis) population. However, managers are also sensitive to the habitat needs of many non-target organisms, including Wood Thrushes (Hylocichla mustelina) and other forest interior Neotropical migratory birds. By simulating several management policies on a set of-alternative forest and bird models, we found a decision policy that maximized a composite response by woodpeckers and Wood Thrushes despite our complete uncertainty regarding system behavior. Furthermore, we used monitoring data to update our measure of belief in each alternative model following one cycle of forest management. This reduction of uncertainty translates into a reallocation of model influence on the choice of optimal decision action at the next decision opportunity.

  5. Quantifying the Detrimental Impacts of Land-Use and Management Change on European Forest Bird Populations

    PubMed Central

    Wade, Amy S. I.; Barov, Boris; Burfield, Ian J.; Gregory, Richard D.; Norris, Ken; Butler, Simon J.

    2013-01-01

    The ecological impacts of changing forest management practices in Europe are poorly understood despite European forests being highly managed. Furthermore, the effects of potential drivers of forest biodiversity decline are rarely considered in concert, thus limiting effective conservation or sustainable forest management. We present a trait-based framework that we use to assess the detrimental impact of multiple land-use and management changes in forests on bird populations across Europe. Major changes to forest habitats occurring in recent decades, and their impact on resource availability for birds were identified. Risk associated with these changes for 52 species of forest birds, defined as the proportion of each species' key resources detrimentally affected through changes in abundance and/or availability, was quantified and compared to their pan-European population growth rates between 1980 and 2009. Relationships between risk and population growth were found to be significantly negative, indicating that resource loss in European forests is an important driver of decline for both resident and migrant birds. Our results demonstrate that coarse quantification of resource use and ecological change can be valuable in understanding causes of biodiversity decline, and thus in informing conservation strategy and policy. Such an approach has good potential to be extended for predictive use in assessing the impact of possible future changes to forest management and to develop more precise indicators of forest health. PMID:23704997

  6. Striving for balance: maintaining marten habitat while reducing fuels

    Treesearch

    John Kirkland; Katie Moriarty

    2016-01-01

    Martens are small forest carnivores associated with dense, mature forests. These important indicators of a forest’s biodiversity are vulnerable to management activities that open the forest canopy or remove downed debris. Many fuel reduction treatment do just that: dense stands of trees are thinned to minimize fire hazard and future fire severity. Until recently, the...

  7. Italian National Forest Inventory: methods, state of the project, and future developments

    Treesearch

    Giovanni Tabacchi; Flora De Natale; Antonio Floris; Caterina Gagliano; Patrizia Gasparini; Gianfranco Scrinzi; Vittorio Tosi

    2007-01-01

    A primary objective of the Italian National Forest Inventory (NFI) is to provide information required by the Kyoto Protocol and the Ministerial Conference on the Protection of Forests in Europe in relation to sustainable forest management practices. For this reason, the second Italian NFI was aimed at providing data in a way that is consistent with the international...

  8. Use of state-and-transition simulation modeling in National Forest planning in the Pacific Northwest, U.S.A

    Treesearch

    Ayn J. Shlisky; Don Vandendriesche

    2012-01-01

    Effective national forest planning depends on scientifically sound analyses of land management alternatives relative to desired future conditions and environmental effects. The USDA Forest Service Pacific Northwest Region is currently using state-and-transition simulation models (STMs) to simulate changes in forest composition and structure for the revisions of five...

  9. Two-dimensional wavelet analysis of spruce budworm host basal area in the Border Lakes landscape

    Treesearch

    Patrick M. James; Brian R. Sturtevant; Phil Townsend; Pete Wolter; Marie-Josee Fortin

    2011-01-01

    Increases in the extent and severity of spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana Clem.) outbreaks over the last century are thought to be the result of changes in forest structure due to forest management. A corollary of this hypothesis is that manipulations of forest structure and composition can be used to reduce future forest vulnerability....

  10. Regional forest landscape restoration priorities: Integrating historical conditions and an uncertain future in the northern Rocky Mountains

    Treesearch

    Barry L. Bollenbacher; Russell T. Graham; Keith M. Reynolds

    2014-01-01

    National law and policy direct the management of the National Forests, with restoring resilient forest conditions being an overarching theme. Climate is a major driver of disturbances that affect ecosystems, especially those with vegetation that show large departures from historical conditions. Drought, fire, insects, and diseases are common forest stressors whose...

  11. Integrating ecophysiology and forest landscape models to improve projections of drought effects under climate change

    Treesearch

    Eric J. Gustafson; Arjan M.G. De Bruijn; Robert E. Pangle; Jean-Marc Limousin; Nate G. McDowell; William T. Pockman; Brian R. Sturtevant; Jordan D. Muss; Mark E. Kubiske

    2015-01-01

    Fundamental drivers of ecosystem processes such as temperature and precipitation are rapidly changing and creating novel environmental conditions. Forest landscape models (FLM) are used by managers and policy-makers to make projections of future ecosystem dynamics under alternative management or policy options, but the links between the fundamental drivers and...

  12. Chapter 9. Data Management, Storage, and Reporting

    Treesearch

    Linda A. Spencer; Mary M. Manning; Bryce Rickel

    2013-01-01

    Data collected for a habitat monitoring program must be managed and stored to be accessible for current and future use inside and outside the Forest Service. Information maintenance and dissemination are important to the Forest Service; they are part of the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) guidelines for information quality (USDA 2002) under the Data Quality Act...

  13. Suggested stocking levels for forest stands in northeastern Oregon and southeastern Washington.

    Treesearch

    P.H. Cochran; J.M. Geist; D.L. Clemens; Rodrick R. Clausnitzer; David C. Powell

    1993-01-01

    Catastrophes and manipulation of stocking levels are important determinants of stand development and the appearance of future forest landscapes. Managers need stocking level guides, particularly for sites incapable of supporting stocking levels presented in normal yield tables. Growth basal area (GBA) has been used by some managers in attempts to assess inherent...

  14. Silvicultural decisionmaking in an uncertain climate future: a workshop-based exploration of considerations, strategies, and approaches

    Treesearch

    Maria K. Janowiak; Christopher W. Swanston; Linda M. Nagel; Christopher R. Webster; Brian J. Palik; Mark J. Twery; John B. Bradford; Linda R. Parker; Andrea T. Hille; Sheela M. Johnson

    2011-01-01

    Land managers across the country face the immense challenge of developing and applying appropriate management strategies as forests respond to climate change. We hosted a workshop to explore silvicultural strategies for addressing the uncertainties surrounding climate change and forest response in the northeastern and north-central United States. Outcomes of this...

  15. Moving forward: Responding to and mitigating effects of the MPB epidemic [Chapter 8

    Treesearch

    Claudia Regan; Barry Bollenbacher; Rob Gump; Mike Hillis

    2014-01-01

    The final webinar in the Future Forest Webinar Series provided an example of how managers utilized available science to address questions about post-epidemic forest conditions. Assessments of current conditions and projected trends, and how these compare with historical patterns, provide important information for land management planning. Large-scale disturbance events...

  16. A conceptual framework for adaptive forest management under climate change

    Treesearch

    Thomas P. Holmes; Steve McNulty; James M. Vose; Jeffrey P. Prestemon; Harbin Li

    2014-01-01

    The consensus among most scientists is that the global climate is changing in response to a rapid increase in greenhouse gas emissions over the past 150 years. This perspective has prompted research on potential changes in future forest conditions so that management interventions might be developed to protect desired ecosystem services. Some of the most significant...

  17. A Tale of Two Forest Carbon Assessments in the Eastern United States: Forest Use Versus Cover as a Metric of Change

    Treesearch

    C. W. Woodall; B. F. Walters; M. B. Russell; J. W. Coulston; G. M. Domke; A. W. D' Amato; P. A. Sowers

    2016-01-01

    The dynamics of land-use practices (for example, forest versus settlements) is often a major driver of changes in terrestrial carbon (C). As the management and conservation of forest land uses are considered a means of reducing future atmospheric CO2 concentrations, the monitoring of forest C stocks and stock change by categories of land-use...

  18. Economic analysis of the gypsy moth problem in the northeast: I. applied to commercial forest stands

    Treesearch

    Roger E. McCay; William B. White

    1973-01-01

    A method of calculating immediate and future losses caused by the gypsy moth is presented, using examples of pulpwood and sawtimber stands. Discounting of future losses to evaluate their cost in terms of current expenditure is explained. The effect of infestation on forest management is discussed and a format is given for considering control decisions.

  19. Wildfire suppression cost forecasts from the US Forest Service

    Treesearch

    Karen L. Abt; Jeffrey P. Prestemon; Krista M. Gebert

    2009-01-01

    The US Forest Service and other land-management agencies seek better tools for nticipating future expenditures for wildfire suppression. We developed regression models for forecasting US Forest Service suppression spending at 1-, 2-, and 3-year lead times. We compared these models to another readily available forecast model, the 10-year moving average model,...

  20. An international nomenclature for forest work study

    Treesearch

    Rolf Bjorheden; Michael A. Thompson

    2000-01-01

    Knowledge gained in the study of forest work is used to improve operational efficiency through better planning and control of future work. Internationally recognized standard methods for recording, evaluating and reporting performance in forest work will greatly enhance the usefulness of this information to managers and planners. A subcommittee of IUFRO Working Party...

  1. An international nomenclature for forest work study

    Treesearch

    Rolf Björheden; Michael A.  Thompson

    2000-01-01

    Knowledge gained in the study of forest work is used to improve operational efficiency through better planning and control of future work. Internationally recognized standard methods for recording, evaluating and reporting performance in forest work will greatly enhance the usefulness of this information to managers and planners. A subcommittee of IUFRO Working Party $...

  2. Western North Carolina report card on forest sustainability

    Treesearch

    Susan Fox; Bill Jackson; Sarah Jackson; Gary Kauffmann; Mary Carol Koester; Robert Mera; Terry Seyden; Charles Van Sickle; Sealy Chipley; Jim Fox; Jeff Hicks; Matt Hutchins; Karin Lichtenstein; Kelsie Nolan; Todd Pierce; Beth Porter

    2011-01-01

    Western North Carolina encompasses 4.8 million acres of highly valued temperate forests. To help address future management and conservation decisions surrounding these resources, the report card evaluates environmental, social, and economic conditions in recent decades across an 18 county area. The report card describes the status of indicators of forest sustainability...

  3. Test of localized nanagement for reducing deer browsing in forest regeneration areas

    Treesearch

    Brad F. Miller; Tyler A. Campbell; Ben R. Laseter; W.Mark Ford; Karl V. Miller

    2010-01-01

    White-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) browsing in forest regeneration sites can affect current and future stand structure and species composition. Removal of deer social units (localized management) has been proposed as a strategy to alleviate deer overbrowsing in forest systems. We conducted an experimental localized removal in a high-density...

  4. Science in 60 – Simulating Flames Helps Tame Future Wildfires

    ScienceCinema

    Lin, Rod

    2018-01-16

    FIRETEC presents a new way of studying fire and learning how to better manage and cope with it. The model provides additional scientific input for decisions by policymakers working in land management, water resources and energy. The team hopes it will eventually assist fire and fuel management operations. This research is done in partnership with the USDA Forest Service, Air Force Wildland Fire Center, INRA and Canadian Forest Service.

  5. Quantifying the biophysical climate change mitigation potential of Canada's forest sector

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smyth, C. E.; Stinson, G.; Neilson, E.; Lemprière, T. C.; Hafer, M.; Rampley, G. J.; Kurz, W. A.

    2014-01-01

    The potential of forests and the forest sector to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is widely recognized, but challenging to quantify at a national scale. Forests and their carbon (C) sequestration potential are affected by management practices, where wood harvesting transfers C out of the forest into products, and subsequent regrowth allows further C sequestration. Here we determine the mitigation potential of the 2.3 × 106 km2 of Canada's managed forests from 2015 to 2050 using the Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector (CBM-CFS3), a harvested wood products model that estimates emissions based on product half-life decay times, and an account of emission substitution benefits from the use of wood products and bioenergy. We examine several mitigation scenarios with different assumptions about forest management activity levels relative to a base-case scenario, including improved growth from silvicultural activities, increased harvest and residue management for bioenergy, and reduced harvest for conservation. We combine forest management options with two mitigation scenarios for harvested wood product use involving an increase in either long-lived products or bioenergy uses. Results demonstrate large differences among alternative scenarios, and we identify potential mitigation scenarios with increasing benefits to the atmosphere for many decades into the future, as well as scenarios with no net benefit over many decades. The greatest mitigation impact was achieved through a mix of strategies that varied across the country and had cumulative mitigation of 254 Tg CO2e in 2030, and 1180 Tg CO2e in 2050. We conclude that (i) national-scale forest sector mitigation options need to be assessed rigorously from a systems perspective to avoid the development of policies that deliver no net benefits to the atmosphere, (ii) a mix of strategies implemented across the country achieves the greatest mitigation impact, and (iii) because of the time delays in achieving carbon benefits for many forest-based mitigation activities, future contributions of the forest sector to climate mitigation can be maximized if implemented soon.

  6. Developing desired future conditions with the landscape management system: A case study of the Gotchen Late Successional Reserve

    Treesearch

    R. Mendez-Treneman; S. Hummel; G. Porterie; C. D. Oliver

    2001-01-01

    Changing public values have led to federal land management direction like the Northwest Forest Plan with major land allocations for late successional forest habitat. Restoration silviculture is a tool for maintaining optimum habitat despite risk of catastrophic disturbance due to the combined impact of fire, insects and disease. The Gotchen Late Successional Reserve (...

  7. Modeled effects of soil acidification on long-term ecological and economic outcomes for managed forests in the Adirondack region (USA).

    PubMed

    Caputo, Jesse; Beier, Colin M; Sullivan, Timothy J; Lawrence, Gregory B

    2016-09-15

    Sugar maple (Acer saccharum) is among the most ecologically and economically important tree species in North America, and its growth and regeneration is often the focus of silvicultural practices in northern hardwood forests. A key stressor for sugar maple (SM) is acid rain, which depletes base cations from poorly-buffered forest soils and has been associated with much lower SM vigor, growth, and recruitment. However, the potential interactions between forest management and soil acidification - and their implications for the sustainability of SM and its economic and cultural benefits - have not been investigated. In this study, we simulated the development of 50 extant SM stands in the western Adirondack region of NY (USA) for 100years under different soil chemical conditions and silvicultural prescriptions. We found that interactions between management prescription and soil base saturation will strongly shape the ability to maintain SM in managed forests. Below 12% base saturation, SM did not regenerate sufficiently after harvest and was replaced mainly by red maple (Acer rubrum) and American beech (Fagus grandifolia). Loss of SM on acid-impaired sites was predicted regardless of whether the shelterwood or diameter-limit prescriptions were used. On soils with sufficient base saturation, models predicted that SM will regenerate after harvest and be sustained for future rotations. We then estimated how these different post-harvest outcomes, mediated by acid impairment of forest soils, would affect the potential monetary value of ecosystem services provided by SM forests. Model simulations indicated that a management strategy focused on syrup production - although not feasible across the vast areas where acid impairment has occurred - may generate the greatest economic return. Although pollution from acid rain is declining, its long-term legacy in forest soils will shape future options for sustainable forestry and ecosystem stewardship in the northern hardwood forests of North America. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. Modeled effects of soil acidification on long-term ecological and economic outcomes for managed forests in the Adirondack region (USA)

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Caputo, Jesse PhD.; Beier, Colin M.; Sullivan, Timothy J.; Lawrence, Gregory B.

    2016-01-01

    Sugar maple (Acer saccharum) is among the most ecologically and economically important tree species in North America, and its growth and regeneration is often the focus of silvicultural practices in northern hardwood forests. A key stressor for sugar maple (SM) is acid rain, which depletes base cations from poorly-buffered forest soils and has been associated with much lower SM vigor, growth, and recruitment. However, the potential interactions between forest management and soil acidification – and their implications for the sustainability of SM and its economic and cultural benefits – have not been investigated. In this study, we simulated the development of 50 extant SM stands in the western Adirondack region of NY (USA) for 100 years under different soil chemical conditions and silvicultural prescriptions. We found that interactions between management prescription and soil base saturation will strongly shape the ability to maintain SM in managed forests. Below 12% base saturation, SM did not regenerate sufficiently after harvest and was replaced mainly by red maple (Acer rubrum) and American beech (Fagus grandifolia). Loss of SM on acid-impaired sites was predicted regardless of whether the shelterwood or diameter-limit prescriptions were used. On soils with sufficient base saturation, models predicted that SM will regenerate after harvest and be sustained for future rotations. We then estimated how these different post-harvest outcomes, mediated by acid impairment of forest soils, would affect the potential monetary value of ecosystem services provided by SM forests. Model simulations indicated that a management strategy focused on syrup production – although not feasible across the vast areas where acid impairment has occurred – may generate the greatest economic return. Although pollution from acid rain is declining, its long-term legacy in forest soils will shape future options for sustainable forestry and ecosystem stewardship in the northern hardwood forests of North America.

  9. Desired future conditions for pinon-juniper ecosystems

    Treesearch

    Douglas W. Shaw; Earl. F. Aldon; Carol LoSapio

    1995-01-01

    The purpose of this symposium was to assist the USDA Forest Service, other federal land management agencies, and the Arizona State Land Office in managing pinon-juniper ecosystems in the Southwest. Authors assessed the current state of knowledge about the pinon-juniper resource and helped develop desired future conditions.

  10. Complex forest dynamics indicate potential for slowing carbon accumulation in the southeastern United States.

    PubMed

    Coulston, John W; Wear, David N; Vose, James M

    2015-01-23

    Over the past century forest regrowth in Europe and North America expanded forest carbon (C) sinks and offset C emissions but future C accumulation is uncertain. Policy makers need insights into forest C dynamics as they anticipate emissions futures and goals. We used land use and forest inventory data to estimate how forest C dynamics have changed in the southeastern United States and attribute changes to land use, management, and disturbance causes. From 2007-2012, forests yielded a net sink of C because of net land use change (+6.48 Tg C yr(-1)) and net biomass accumulation (+75.4 Tg C yr(-1)). Forests disturbed by weather, insect/disease, and fire show dampened yet positive forest C changes (+1.56, +1.4, +5.48 Tg C yr(-1), respectively). Forest cutting caused net decreases in C (-76.7 Tg C yr(-1)) but was offset by forest growth (+143.77 Tg C yr(-1)). Forest growth rates depend on age or stage of development and projected C stock changes indicate a gradual slowing of carbon accumulation with anticipated forest aging (a reduction of 9.5% over the next five years). Additionally, small shifts in land use transitions consistent with economic futures resulted in a 40.6% decrease in C accumulation.

  11. Quantifying Forest Ecosystem Services Tradeoff—Coupled Ecological and Economic Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Haff, P. K.; Ling, P. Y.

    2015-12-01

    Quantification of the effect of carbon-related forestland management activities on ecosystem services is difficult, because knowledge about the dynamics of coupled social-ecological systems is lacking. Different forestland management activities, such as various amount, timing, and methods of harvesting, and natural disturbances events, such as wind and fires, create shocks and uncertainties to the forest carbon dynamics. A spatially explicit model, Landis-ii, was used to model the forest succession for different harvest management scenarios at the Grandfather District, North Carolina. In addition to harvest, the model takes into account of the impact of natural disturbances, such as fire and insects, and species competition. The result shows the storage of carbon in standing biomass and in wood product for each species for each scenario. In this study, optimization is used to analyze the maximum profit and the number of tree species that each forest landowner can gain at different prices of carbon, roundwood, and interest rates for different harvest management scenarios. Time series of roundwood production of different types were estimated using remote sensing data. Econometric analysis is done to understand the possible interaction and relations between the production of different types of roundwood and roundwood prices, which can indicate the possible planting scheme that a forest owner may make. This study quantifies the tradeoffs between carbon sequestration, roundwood production, and forest species diversity not only from an economic perspective, but also takes into account of the forest succession mechanism in a species-diverse region. The resulting economic impact on the forest landowners is likely to influence their future planting decision, which in turn, will influence the species composition and future revenue of the landowners.

  12. Below-cost timber sales and the political marketplace

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cortner, Hanna J.; Schweitzer, Dennis L.

    1993-01-01

    Political pressures exist to increase the economic efficiency of timber management and production on the national forests managed by the USDA Forest Service. There is growing belief both outside and within the Forest Service that current levels of timber production, and most particularly uneconomic timber production, should be reduced. Many argue that eliminating uneconomic timber management programs will both save money and reduce environmental degradation. This article traces the political evolution of the focus on economic efficiency in timber production and explores the political-institutional factors that are shaping the current policy debate. The below-cost issue is less about economic efficiency than it is about political advantage and alternative political visions of the societal role of the nation's national forests now and in the future.

  13. Estimating the carbon budget and maximizing future carbon uptake for a temperate forest region in the U.S.

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background Forests of the Midwest U.S. provide numerous ecosystem services. Two of these, carbon sequestration and wood production, are often portrayed as conflicting. Currently, carbon management and biofuel policies are being developed to reduce atmospheric CO2 and national dependence on foreign oil, and increase carbon storage in ecosystems. However, the biological and industrial forest carbon cycles are rarely studied in a whole-system structure. The forest system carbon balance is the difference between the biological (net ecosystem production) and industrial (net emissions from forest industry) forest carbon cycles, but to date this critical whole system analysis is lacking. This study presents a model of the forest system, uses it to compute the carbon balance, and outlines a methodology to maximize future carbon uptake in a managed forest region. Results We used a coupled forest ecosystem process and forest products life cycle inventory model for a regional temperate forest in the Midwestern U.S., and found the net system carbon balance for this 615,000 ha forest was positive (2.29 t C ha-1 yr-1). The industrial carbon budget was typically less than 10% of the biological system annually, and averaged averaged 0.082 t C ha-1 yr-1. Net C uptake over the next 100-years increased by 22% or 0.33 t C ha-1 yr-1 relative to the current harvest rate in the study region under the optized harvest regime. Conclusions The forest’s biological ecosystem current and future carbon uptake capacity is largely determined by forest harvest practices that occurred over a century ago, but we show an optimized harvesting strategy would increase future carbon sequestration, or wood production, by 20-30%, reduce long transportation chain emissions, and maintain many desirable stand structural attributes that are correlated to biodiversity. Our results for this forest region suggest that increasing harvest over the next 100 years increases the strength of the carbon sink, and that carbon sequestration and wood production are not conflicting for this particular forest ecosystem. The optimal harvest strategy found here may not be the same for all forests, but the methodology is applicable anywhere sufficient forest inventory data exist. PMID:22713794

  14. Participatory forest management in Ethiopia: learning from pilot projects.

    PubMed

    Ameha, Aklilu; Larsen, H O; Lemenih, Mulugeta

    2014-04-01

    Different arrangements of decentralized forest management have been promoted as alternatives to centralized and top down approaches to halt tropical deforestation and forest degradation. Ethiopia is one of the countries piloting one of these approaches. To inform future programs and projects it is essential to learn from existing pilots and experiences. This paper analyses five of the pilot participatory forest management (PFM) programs undertaken in Ethiopia. The study is based on the Forest User Group (FUG) members' analyses of the programs using selected outcome variables: forest income, change in forest conditions, forest ownership feelings and effectiveness of FUGs as forest managing institutions. These variables were assessed at three points in time-before the introduction of PFM, during the project implementation and after the projects ended. Data were collected using group discussions, key informant interviews and transect walks through the PFM forests. The results show that in all of the five cases the state of the forest is perceived to have improved with the introduction of PFM, and in four of the cases the improvement was maintained after projects ended. Regulated access to the forests following introduction of PFM was not perceived to have affected forest income negatively. There are, however, serious concerns about the institutional effectiveness of the FUGs after projects ended, and this may affect the success of the PFM approach in the longer term.

  15. Conclusions

    Treesearch

    David L. Peterson; James M. Vose

    2012-01-01

    Forest ecosystems in the United States in the year 2100 will differ from those of today as a result of a changing climate. Those differences will be superimposed on the human imprint of forest management and the legacies of other land use activities, stressors, and disturbances of the 19th and 20th centuries. Future changes in forest ecosystems will occur across both...

  16. Red maple (Acer rubrum) response to prescribed burning on the William B. Bankhead National Forest, Alabama

    Treesearch

    Stacy L. Clark; Callie J. Schweitzer

    2009-01-01

    Prescribed burning is part of Land and Resource Management Plans on National Forest System lands throughout the southeastern United States, and is sometimes implemented to achieve a desired future condition of oak-dominated forest or woodland habitat. However, effects of burning on oak (Quercus spp.) competitors, such as red maple (Acer...

  17. The invasion of southern forests by nonnative plants: current and future occupation, with impacts, management strategies, and mitigation approaches

    Treesearch

    James H. Miller; Dawn Lemke; John Coulston

    2013-01-01

    Key FindingsInvasive plants continue to escape into and spread through southern forests to eventually form exclusive infestations, and replace native communities to the detriment of forest productivity, biodiversity, ecosystem services, and human use potential.Over a 300-year period, invasive plants have been increasingly...

  18. Historical vegetation change in Oakland and its implications for urban forest management

    Treesearch

    David J. Nowak

    1993-01-01

    The history of Oakland, California's urban forest was researched to determine events that could influence future urban forests. Vegetation in Oakland has changed drastically from a preurbanized area with approximately 2% tree cover to a present tree cover of 19%. Species composition of trees was previously dominated by coast live oak (Quercus agrifolia...

  19. Linking climate, gross primary productivity, and site index across forests of the western United States

    Treesearch

    Aaron R. Weiskittel; Nicholas L. Crookston; Philip J. Radtke

    2011-01-01

    Assessing forest productivity is important for developing effective management regimes and predicting future growth. Despite some important limitations, the most common means for quantifying forest stand-level potential productivity is site index (SI). Another measure of productivity is gross primary production (GPP). In this paper, SI is compared with GPP estimates...

  20. Forest wildfire, fuel reduction treatments, and landscape carbon stocks: a sensitivity analysis

    Treesearch

    John L. Campbell; Alan A. Ager

    2013-01-01

    Fuel reduction treatments prescribed in fire-suppressed forests of western North America pose an apparent paradox with respect to terrestrial carbon management. Such treatments have the immediate effect of reducing forest carbon stocks but likely reduce future carbon losses through the combustion and mortality caused by high-severity wildfires. Assessing the long-term...

  1. Forest mensuration with remote sensing: A retrospective and a vision for the future

    Treesearch

    Randolph H. Wynne

    2004-01-01

    Remote sensing, while occasionally oversold, has clear potential to reduce the overall cost of traditional forest inventories. Perhaps most important, some of the information needed for more intensive, rather than extensive, forest management is available from remote sensing. These new information needs may justify increased use and the increased cost of remote sensing...

  2. Effect of Herbicides on Soil Productivity and Water Quality

    Treesearch

    Daniel G. Neary; Jerry L. Michael

    1989-01-01

    The southern yellow pine and hardwood forests of the South constitute some of the most intensively managed forest ecosystems in the world (Stone 1983; Kellison and Gingrich 1982). These forests also occur in a region with one of the fastest growing human populations in the United States. Furthermore, future resource demands in the South will certainly intensify...

  3. Managing pinon-juniper ecosystems for sustainability and social needs; proceedings of the symposium 1993 April 26-30; Sante Fe, New Mexico

    Treesearch

    Earl F. Aldon; Douglas W. Shaw

    1993-01-01

    The purpose of this symposium was to assist the USDA Forest Service, other federal land management agencies, and the New Mexico State Land Office in the future development and management of the pinon-juniper ecosystem in the Southwest. Authors assessed the current state of knowledge about the pinon-juniper resource and helped develop future research and management...

  4. Research gaps related to forest management and stream sediment in the United States.

    PubMed

    Anderson, Christopher J; Lockaby, B Graeme

    2011-02-01

    Water quality from forested landscapes tends to be very high but can deteriorate during and after silvicultural activities. Practices such as forest harvesting, site preparation, road construction/use, and stream crossings have been shown to contribute sediment, nutrients, and other pollutants to adjacent streams. Although advances in forest management accompanied with Best Management Practices (BMPs) have been very effective at reducing water quality impacts from forest operations, projected increases in demand for forest products may result in unintended environmental degradation. Through a review of the pertinent literature, we identified several research gaps related to water yield, aquatic habitat, sediment source and delivery, and BMP effectiveness that should be addressed for streams in the United States to better understand and address the environmental ramifications of current and future levels of timber production. We explored the current understanding of these topics based on relevant literature and the possible implications of increased demand for forest products in the United States.

  5. Short and long-term carbon balance of bioenergy electricity production fueled by forest treatments.

    PubMed

    Kelsey, Katharine C; Barnes, Kallie L; Ryan, Michael G; Neff, Jason C

    2014-01-01

    Forests store large amounts of carbon in forest biomass, and this carbon can be released to the atmosphere following forest disturbance or management. In the western US, forest fuel reduction treatments designed to reduce the risk of high severity wildfire can change forest carbon balance by removing carbon in the form of biomass, and by altering future potential wildfire behavior in the treated stand. Forest treatment carbon balance is further affected by the fate of this biomass removed from the forest, and the occurrence and intensity of a future wildfire in this stand. In this study we investigate the carbon balance of a forest treatment with varying fates of harvested biomass, including use for bioenergy electricity production, and under varying scenarios of future disturbance and regeneration. Bioenergy is a carbon intensive energy source; in our study we find that carbon emissions from bioenergy electricity production are nearly twice that of coal for the same amount of electricity. However, some emissions from bioenergy electricity production are offset by avoided fossil fuel electricity emissions. The carbon benefit achieved by using harvested biomass for bioenergy electricity production may be increased through avoided pyrogenic emissions if the forest treatment can effectively reduce severity. Forest treatments with the use of harvested biomass for electricity generation can reduce carbon emissions to the atmosphere by offsetting fossil fuel electricity generation emissions, and potentially by avoided pyrogenic emissions due to reduced intensity and severity of a future wildfire in the treated stand. However, changes in future wildfire and regeneration regimes may affect forest carbon balance and these climate-induced changes may influence forest carbon balance as much, or more, than bioenergy production.

  6. Wildfire management policies in Algeria: present and future needs

    Treesearch

    Ouahiba Meddour-Sahar; Armando González-Cabán; Rachid Meddour; Arezki Derridj

    2013-01-01

    Algerian forest lands cover 4,115,908 hectares (ha), of which 2,413,090 (58%) ha are bush or maquis. Recent work has shown that forest fires are the main factor explaining (90%) degradation of Algeria forest lands at an annual rate of 45,000 to 50,000 ha. From 1985 to 2010 in 40 provinces of northern Algeria, 42,555 forest fires have burned a total...

  7. Comparing models for growth and management of forest tracts

    Treesearch

    J.J. Colbert; Michael Schuckers; Desta Fekedulegn

    2003-01-01

    The Stand Damage Model (SDM) is a PC-based model that is easily installed, calibrated and initialized for use in exploring the future growth and management of forest stands or small wood lots. We compare the basic individual tree growth model incorporated in this model with alternative models that predict the basal area growth of trees. The SDM is a gap-type simulator...

  8. Diversifying the composition and structure of managed late-successional forests with harvest gaps: What is the optimal gap size?

    Treesearch

    Christel C. Kern; Anthony W. D’Amato; Terry F. Strong

    2013-01-01

    Managing forests for resilience is crucial in the face of uncertain future environmental conditions. Because harvest gap size alters the species diversity and vertical and horizontal structural heterogeneity, there may be an optimum range of gap sizes for conferring resilience to environmental uncertainty. We examined the impacts of different harvest gap sizes on...

  9. Understanding the effects of fire management practices on forest health: implications for weeds and vegetation structure

    Treesearch

    Anne E. Black; Peter Landres

    2012-01-01

    Current fire policy to restore ecosystem function and resiliency and reduce buildup of hazardous fuels implies a larger future role for fire (both natural and human ignitions) (USDA Forest Service and U.S. Department of the Interior 2000). Yet some fire management (such as building fire line, spike camps, or helispots) potentially causes both short- and longterm...

  10. Timber productivity research gaps for extensive forest management

    Treesearch

    L.C. Irland

    2011-01-01

    On extensive areas of small scale forests, significant opportunities for improving the value of future timber harvests while also improving other resource values are now being missed. A new focus on practical extensive management research is needed, especially as implementation of intensive practices has been declining in many areas, and new ‘‘close to nature’’...

  11. Evaluating the effects of alternative forest management plans under various physiographic settings using historical records as a reference

    Treesearch

    Yangjian Zhang; Hong S. He; Stephen R. Shifley; Jian Yang; Brian J. Palik

    2011-01-01

    Using historical General Land Office record as a reference, this study employed a landscape-scale disturbance and succession model to estimate the future cumulative effects of six alternative management plans on the tree species composition for various physiographic settings for the Mark Twain National Forest in Missouri. The results indicate that over a 200-year...

  12. Interaction of ice storms and management practices on current carbon sequestration in forests with potential mitigation under future CO2 atmosphere

    Treesearch

    Heather R. McCarthy; Ram Oren; Hyun-Seok Kim; Kurt H. Johnsen; Chris Maier; Seth G. Pritchard; Michael A. Davis

    2006-01-01

    Ice storms are disturbance events with potential impacts on carbon sequestration. Common forest management practices, such as fertilization and thinning, can change wood and stand properties and thus may change vulnerability to ice storm damage. At the same time, increasing atmospheric CO2 levels may also influence ice storm vulnerability. Here...

  13. Aboveground carbon in Quebec forests: stock quantification at the provincial scale and assessment of temperature, precipitation and edaphic properties effects on the potential stand-level stocking.

    PubMed

    Duchesne, Louis; Houle, Daniel; Ouimet, Rock; Lambert, Marie-Claude; Logan, Travis

    2016-01-01

    Biological carbon sequestration by forest ecosystems plays an important role in the net balance of greenhouse gases, acting as a carbon sink for anthropogenic CO2 emissions. Nevertheless, relatively little is known about the abiotic environmental factors (including climate) that control carbon storage in temperate and boreal forests and consequently, about their potential response to climate changes. From a set of more than 94,000 forest inventory plots and a large set of spatial data on forest attributes interpreted from aerial photographs, we constructed a fine-resolution map (∼375 m) of the current carbon stock in aboveground live biomass in the 435,000 km(2) of managed forests in Quebec, Canada. Our analysis resulted in an area-weighted average aboveground carbon stock for productive forestland of 37.6 Mg ha(-1), which is lower than commonly reported values for similar environment. Models capable of predicting the influence of mean annual temperature, annual precipitation, and soil physical environment on maximum stand-level aboveground carbon stock (MSAC) were developed. These models were then used to project the future MSAC in response to climate change. Our results indicate that the MSAC was significantly related to both mean annual temperature and precipitation, or to the interaction of these variables, and suggest that Quebec's managed forests MSAC may increase by 20% by 2041-2070 in response to climate change. Along with changes in climate, the natural disturbance regime and forest management practices will nevertheless largely drive future carbon stock at the landscape scale. Overall, our results allow accurate accounting of carbon stock in aboveground live tree biomass of Quebec's forests, and provide a better understanding of possible feedbacks between climate change and carbon storage in temperate and boreal forests.

  14. Mapping forest conditions: past, present, and future

    Treesearch

    Maggi Kelly

    2017-01-01

    Mapping and mapped data have always been critical to public land managers and researchers for identifying and characterizing wildlife habitat across scales, monitoring species and habitat change, and predicting and planning future scenarios. Maps and mapping protocols are often incorporated into wildlife and habitat management plans, as is the case with the California...

  15. Impacts of forestry on boreal forests: An ecosystem services perspective.

    PubMed

    Pohjanmies, Tähti; Triviño, María; Le Tortorec, Eric; Mazziotta, Adriano; Snäll, Tord; Mönkkönen, Mikko

    2017-11-01

    Forests are widely recognized as major providers of ecosystem services, including timber, other forest products, recreation, regulation of water, soil and air quality, and climate change mitigation. Extensive tracts of boreal forests are actively managed for timber production, but actions aimed at increasing timber yields also affect other forest functions and services. Here, we present an overview of the environmental impacts of forest management from the perspective of ecosystem services. We show how prevailing forestry practices may have substantial but diverse effects on the various ecosystem services provided by boreal forests. Several aspects of these processes remain poorly known and warrant a greater role in future studies, including the role of community structure. Conflicts among different interests related to boreal forests are most likely to occur, but the concept of ecosystem services may provide a useful framework for identifying and resolving these conflicts.

  16. Quantifying the biophysical climate change mitigation potential of Canada's forest sector

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smyth, C. E.; Stinson, G.; Neilson, E.; Lemprière, T. C.; Hafer, M.; Rampley, G. J.; Kurz, W. A.

    2014-07-01

    The potential of forests and the forest sector to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is widely recognized, but challenging to quantify at a national scale. Forests and their carbon (C) sequestration potential are affected by management practices, where wood harvesting transfers C out of the forest into products, and subsequent regrowth allows further C sequestration. Here we determine the mitigation potential of the 2.3 × 106 km2 of Canada's managed forests from 2015 to 2050 using the Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector (CBM-CFS3), a harvested wood products (HWP) model that estimates emissions based on product half-life decay times, and an account of emission substitution benefits from the use of wood products and bioenergy. We examine several mitigation scenarios with different assumptions about forest management activity levels relative to a base case scenario, including improved growth from silvicultural activities, increased harvest and residue management for bioenergy, and reduced harvest for conservation. We combine forest management options with two mitigation scenarios for harvested wood product use involving an increase in either long-lived products or bioenergy uses. Results demonstrate large differences among alternative scenarios, and we identify potential mitigation scenarios with increasing benefits to the atmosphere for many decades into the future, as well as scenarios with no net benefit over many decades. The greatest mitigation impact was achieved through a mix of strategies that varied across the country and had cumulative mitigation of 254 Tg CO2e in 2030, and 1180 Tg CO2e in 2050. There was a trade-off between short-term and long-term goals, in that maximizing short-term emissions reduction could reduce the forest sector's ability to contribute to longer-term objectives. We conclude that (i) national-scale forest sector mitigation options need to be assessed rigorously from a systems perspective to avoid the development of policies that deliver no net benefits to the atmosphere, (ii) a mix of strategies implemented across the country achieves the greatest mitigation impact, and (iii) because of the time delays in achieving carbon benefits for many forest-based mitigation activities, future contributions of the forest sector to climate mitigation can be maximized if implemented soon.

  17. Influence of Forest Management Regimes on Forest Dynamics in the Upstream Region of the Hun River in Northeastern China

    PubMed Central

    Yao, Jing; He, Xingyuan; Wang, Anzhi; Chen, Wei; Li, Xiaoyu; Lewis, Bernard J.; Lv, Xiaotao

    2012-01-01

    Balancing forest harvesting and restoration is critical for forest ecosystem management. In this study, we used LANDIS, a spatially explicit forest landscape model, to evaluate the effects of 21 alternative forest management initiatives which were drafted for forests in the upstream region of the Hun River in northeastern China. These management initiatives included a wide range of planting and harvest intensities for Pinus koraiensis, the historically dominant tree species in the region. Multivariate analysis of variance, Shannon's Diversity Index, and planting efficiency (which indicates how many cells of the target species at the final year benefit from per-cell of the planting trees) estimates were used as indicators to analyze the effects of planting and harvesting regimes on forests in the region. The results showed that the following: (1) Increased planting intensity, although augmenting the coverage of P. koraiensis, was accompanied by decreases in planting efficiency and forest diversity. (2) While selective harvesting could increase forest diversity, the abrupt increase of early succession species accompanying this method merits attention. (3) Stimulating rapid forest succession may not be a good management strategy, since the climax species would crowd out other species which are likely more adapted to future climatic conditions in the long run. In light of the above, we suggest a combination of 30% planting intensity with selective harvesting of 50% and 70% of primary and secondary timber species, respectively, as the most effective management regime in this area. In the long run this would accelerate the ultimate dominance of P. koraiensis in the forest via a more effective rate of planting, while maintaining a higher degree of forest diversity. These results are particularly useful for forest managers constrained by limited financial and labor resources who must deal with conflicts between forest harvesting and restoration. PMID:22723930

  18. [Reform of collective forest property in Liaoning Province: a discussion].

    PubMed

    Tai, Shan-shan; Hu, Yuan-man; Zhang, Hong-sheng; Han, Yu-ku; Xiao, Ze-chen

    2010-05-01

    The reform of collective forest property has increased the farmers' income, and brought new development to forestry. On the basis of expatiating the conception of collective forest property and related management system, this paper introduced in detail the course, main ways, and effects of the reform in Liaoning Province, analyzed the research progress of the reform and existing problems, and made appraisement and exceptions to the reform of collective forest property in Liaoning Province, aimed to give comments to the development and orientation of forward reform. In this province, the reform of collective forest property had the characteristics of classified reform, different reform types in different areas, and the main and affiliated reform being carried out at the same time. By the end of 2009, the main task had turned into affiliated reform. In the future, the reform should be focused on the optimal forestry management model to improve the forest economic, ecological, and social benefits, and using multi-disciplinary methods to strengthen the researches on the relationships between forestry management and forest ecological functions to provide scientific bases for the reform of collective forest property in Liaoning Province.

  19. Geomorphology and forest management in New Zealand's erodible steeplands: An overview

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Phillips, Chris; Marden, Michael; Basher, Les R.

    2018-04-01

    In this paper we outline how geomorphological understanding has underpinned forest management in New Zealand's erodible steeplands, where it contributes to current forest management, and suggest where it will be of value in the future. We focus on the highly erodible soft-rock hill country of the East Coast region of North Island, but cover other parts of New Zealand where appropriate. We conclude that forestry will continue to make a significant contribution to New Zealand's economy, but several issues need to be addressed. The most pressing concerns are the incidence of post-harvest, storm-initiated landslides and debris flows arising from steepland forests following timber harvesting. There are three areas where geomorphological information and understanding are required to support the forest industry - development of an improved national erosion susceptibility classification to support a new national standard for plantation forestry; terrain analysis to support improved hazard and risk assessment at detailed operational scales; and understanding of post-harvest shallow landslide-debris flows, including their prediction and management.

  20. Demonstrating appropriate silviculture for sustainable forestry in central Siberia: a Russian - American partnership

    Treesearch

    J. C. Brissette; S. T. Eubanks; A. J. R. Gillespie; R. J. Lasko; A. V. Rykoff

    1997-01-01

    A joint Northeastern Forest Experiment Station - Eastern Region team is working with Russian counterparts on a Forests for the Future Initiative in the Krasnoyarsk region of central Siberia. Russian team members include scientists from the Sukachev Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, managers from a number of units of the Federal Forest Service of Russia, and...

  1. Complex forest dynamics indicate potential for slowing carbon accumulation in the southeastern United States

    PubMed Central

    Coulston, John W.; Wear, David N.; Vose, James M.

    2015-01-01

    Over the past century forest regrowth in Europe and North America expanded forest carbon (C) sinks and offset C emissions but future C accumulation is uncertain. Policy makers need insights into forest C dynamics as they anticipate emissions futures and goals. We used land use and forest inventory data to estimate how forest C dynamics have changed in the southeastern United States and attribute changes to land use, management, and disturbance causes. From 2007-2012, forests yielded a net sink of C because of net land use change (+6.48 Tg C yr−1) and net biomass accumulation (+75.4 Tg C yr−1). Forests disturbed by weather, insect/disease, and fire show dampened yet positive forest C changes (+1.56, +1.4, +5.48 Tg C yr−1, respectively). Forest cutting caused net decreases in C (−76.7 Tg C yr−1) but was offset by forest growth (+143.77 Tg C yr−1). Forest growth rates depend on age or stage of development and projected C stock changes indicate a gradual slowing of carbon accumulation with anticipated forest aging (a reduction of 9.5% over the next five years). Additionally, small shifts in land use transitions consistent with economic futures resulted in a 40.6% decrease in C accumulation. PMID:25614123

  2. Emerging themes in the ecology and management of North American forests

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sharik, Terry L.; Adair, William; Baker, Fred A.; Battaglia, Michael; Comfort, Emily J.; D'Amato, Anthony W.; Delong, Craig; DeRose, R. Justin; Ducey, Mark J.; Harmon, Mark; Levy, Louise; Logan, Jesse A.; O'Brien, Joseph; Palik, Brian J.; Roberts, Scott D.; Rogers, Paul C.; Shinneman, Douglas J.; Spies, Thomas; Taylor, Sarah L.; Woodall, Christopher; Youngblood, Andrew

    2010-01-01

    The 7th North American Forest Ecology Workshop, consisting of 149 presentations in 16 oral sessions and a poster session, reflected a broad range of topical areas currently under investigation in forest ecology and management. There was an overarching emphasis on the role of disturbance, both natural and anthropogenic, in the dynamics of forest ecosystems, and the recognition that legacies from past disturbances strongly influence future trajectories. Climate was invoked as a major driver of ecosystem change. An emphasis was placed on application of research findings for predicting system responses to changing forest management initiatives. Several “needs” emerged from the discussions regarding approaches to the study of forest ecosystems, including (1) consideration of variable spatial and temporal scales, (2) long-term monitoring, (3) development of universal databases more encompassing of time and space to facilitate meta-analyses, (4) combining field studies and modeling approaches, (5) standardizing methods of measurement and assessment, (6) guarding against oversimplification or overgeneralization from limited site-specific results, (7) greater emphasis on plant-animal interactions, and (8) better alignment of needs and communication of results between researchers and managers.

  3. Linking Science and Management in an Interactive Geospatial, Mutli-Criterion, Structured Decision Support Framework: Use Case Studies of the "Future Forests Geo-visualization and Decision Support Tool

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pontius, J.; Duncan, J.

    2017-12-01

    Land managers are often faced with balancing management activities to accomplish a diversity of management objectives, in systems faced with many stress agents. Advances in ecosystem modeling provide a rich source of information to inform management. Coupled with advances in decision support techniques and computing capabilities, interactive tools are now accessible for a broad audience of stakeholders. Here we present one such tool designed to capture information on how climate change may impact forested ecosystems, and how that impact varies spatially across the landscape. This tool integrates empirical models of current and future forest structure and function in a structured decision framework that allows users to customize weights for multiple management objectives and visualize suitability outcomes across the landscape. Combined with climate projections, the resulting products allow stakeholders to compare the relative success of various management objectives on a pixel by pixel basis and identify locations where management outcomes are most likely to be met. Here we demonstrate this approach with the integration of several of the preliminary models developed to map species distributions, sugar maple health, forest fragmentation risk and hemlock vulnerability to hemlock woolly adelgid under current and future climate scenarios. We compare three use case studies with objective weightings designed to: 1) Identify key parcels for sugarbush conservation and management, 2) Target state lands that may serve as hemlock refugia from hemlock woolly adelgid induced mortality, and 3) Examine how climate change may alter the success of managing for both sugarbush and hemlock across privately owned lands. This tool highlights the value of flexible models that can be easily run with customized weightings in a dynamic, integrated assessment that allows users to hone in on their potentially complex management objectives, and to visualize and prioritize locations across the landscape. It also demonstrates the importance of including climate considerations for long-term management. This merging of scientific knowledge with the diversity of stakeholder needs is an important step towards using science to inform management and policy decisions.

  4. Using a Forest Health Index as an Outreach Tool for Improving Public Understanding of Ecosystem Dynamics and Research-Based Management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Osenga, E. C.; Cundiff, J.; Arnott, J. C.; Katzenberger, J.; Taylor, J. R.; Jack-Scott, E.

    2015-12-01

    An interactive tool called the Forest Health Index (FHI) has been developed for the Roaring Fork watershed of Colorado, with the purpose of improving public understanding of local forest management and ecosystem dynamics. The watershed contains large areas of White River National Forest, which plays a significant role in the local economy, particularly for recreation and tourism. Local interest in healthy forests is therefore strong, but public understanding of forest ecosystems is often simplified. This can pose challenges for land managers and researchers seeking a scientifically informed approach to forest restoration, management, and planning. Now in its second iteration, the FHI is a tool designed to help bridge that gap. The FHI uses a suite of indicators to create a numeric rating of forest functionality and change, based on the desired forest state in relation to four categories: Ecological Integrity, Public Health and Safety, Ecosystem Services, and Sustainable Use and Management. The rating is based on data derived from several sources including local weather stations, stream gauge data, SNOTEL sites, and National Forest Service archives. In addition to offering local outreach and education, this project offers broader insight into effective communication methods, as well as into the challenges of using quantitative analysis to rate ecosystem health. Goals of the FHI include its use in schools as a means of using local data and place-based learning to teach basic math and science concepts, improved public understanding of ecological complexity and need for ongoing forest management, and, in the future, its use as a model for outreach tools in other forested communities in the Intermountain West.

  5. Modeling Forest Management Strategies for Hydrological Climate Change Adaptation in the upper Columbia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Duan, Z.; Sun, N.; Wigmosta, M. S.; Hessburg, P. F., Sr.; Coleman, A. M.; Salter, B.

    2017-12-01

    Management of forest lands in the Upper Columbia River basin is necessary to ensure the sustainability of natural ecosystems and enhance protection and recovery of fish and wildlife populations. By 2030, summertime surface water demand is expected to significantly exceed supply in most years in many Upper Columbia tributaries; in some years, a portion of these tributaries will exceed supply even outside the summer months. Forest restoration (i.e., timber harvest, prescribed burning, thinning) reduces canopy cover and, subsequently, has been shown in many cases to increase snow accumulation and total runoff volume. We use the Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM) to predict hydrologic properties and changes associated with realistic forest restoration scenarios prescribed in high spatial detail (90 m) within snow-dominated watersheds of the upper Columbia under current and future climate conditions. We consider changes in hydrological processes related to snowpack, stream discharge, and water temperature. Model results suggest forest restoration will impact annual water yield under both current and future climate conditions and the impact of forest restoration on the timing of snowmelt and streamflow varies from year to year and is highly dependent on local meteorological conditions and particular forest restoration scenarios. Corresponding changes in water temperature will also be discussed.

  6. Understanding illegality and corruption in forest governance.

    PubMed

    Sundström, Aksel

    2016-10-01

    This review synthesizes the literature studying illegality and government corruption in forest management. After discussing the theoretical connections between different types of corruption and illegal forest-related activities it describes the major trends in previous studies, examining cross-national patterns as well as local in-depth studies. Both theory and available empirical findings provide a straightforward suggestion: Bribery is indeed a "door opener" for illegal activities to take place in forest management. It then discusses the implications for conservation, focusing first on international protection schemes such as the REDD+ and second on efforts to reduce illegality and bribery in forest management. Key aspects to consider in the discussion on how to design monitoring institutions of forest regulations is how to involve actors without the incentive to engage in bribery and how to make use of new technologies that may publicize illegal behavior in distant localities. The review concludes by discussing avenues for future research. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Climatic-Induced Shifts in the Distribution of Teak ( Tectona grandis) in Tropical Asia: Implications for Forest Management and Planning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Deb, Jiban Chandra; Phinn, Stuart; Butt, Nathalie; McAlpine, Clive A.

    2017-09-01

    Modelling the future suitable climate space for tree species has become a widely used tool for forest management planning under global climate change. Teak ( Tectona grandis) is one of the most valuable tropical hardwood species in the international timber market, and natural teak forests are distributed from India through Myanmar, Laos and Thailand. The extents of teak forests are shrinking due to deforestation and the local impacts of global climate change. However, the direct impacts of climate changes on the continental-scale distributions of native and non-native teak have not been examined. In this study, we developed a species distribution model for teak across its entire native distribution in tropical Asia, and its non-native distribution in Bangladesh. We used presence-only records of trees and twelve environmental variables that were most representative for current teak distributions in South and Southeast Asia. MaxEnt (maximum entropy) models were used to model the distributions of teak under current and future climate scenarios. We found that land use/land cover change and elevation were the two most important variables explaining the current and future distributions of native and non-native teak in tropical Asia. Changes in annual precipitation, precipitation seasonality and annual mean actual evapotranspiration may result in shifts in the distributions of teak across tropical Asia. We discuss the implications for the conservation of critical teak habitats, forest management planning, and risks of biological invasion that may occur due to its cultivation in non-native ranges.

  8. Seeking potential contributions to future carbon budget in conterminous US forests considering disturbances

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Fangmin; Pan, Yude; Birdsey, Richard A.; Chen, Jing M.; Dugan, Alexa

    2017-11-01

    Currently, US forests constitute a large carbon sink, comprising about 9 % of the global terrestrial carbon sink. Wildfire is the most significant disturbance influencing carbon dynamics in US forests. Our objective is to estimate impacts of climate change, CO2 concentration, and nitrogen deposition on the future net biome productivity (NBP) of US forests until the end of twenty-first century under a range of disturbance conditions. We designate three forest disturbance scenarios under one future climate scenario to evaluate factor impacts for the future period (2011-2100): (1) no wildfires occur but forests continue to age (Saging), (2) no wildfires occur and forest ages are fixed in 2010 (Sfixed_nodis), and (3) wildfires occur according to a historical pattern, consequently changing forest age (Sdis_age_change). Results indicate that US forests remain a large carbon sink in the late twenty-first century under the Sfixed_nodis scenario; however, they become a carbon source under the Saging and Sdis_age_change scenarios. During the period of 2011 to 2100, climate is projected to have a small direct effect on NBP, while atmospheric CO2 concentration and nitrogen deposition have large positive effects on NBP regardless of the future climate and disturbance scenarios. Meanwhile, responses to past disturbances under the Sfixed_nodis scenario increase NBP regardless of the future climate scenarios. Although disturbance effects on NBP under the Saging and Sdis_age_change scenarios decrease with time, both scenarios experience an increase in NBP prior to the 2050s and then a decrease in NBP until the end of the twenty-first century. This study indicates that there is potential to increase or at least maintain the carbon sink of conterminous US forests at the current level if future wildfires are reduced and age structures are maintained at a productive mix. The effects of CO2 on the future carbon sink may overwhelm effects of other factors at the end of the twenty-first century. Although our model in conjunction with multiple disturbance scenarios may not reflect the true conditions of future forests, it provides a range of potential conditions as well as a useful guide to both current and future forest carbon management.

  9. Modeling the Effects of Drought Events on Forest Ecosystem Functioning Historically and Under Scenarios of Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ren, J.; Hanan, E. J.; Kolden, C.; Abatzoglou, J. T.; Tague, C.; Liu, M.; Adam, J. C.

    2017-12-01

    Drought events have been increasing across the western United States in recent years. Many studies have shown that, in the context of climate change, droughts will continue to be stronger, more frequent, and prolonged in the future. However, the response of forest ecosystems to droughts, particularly multi-year droughts, is not well understood. The objectives of this study are to examine how drought events of varying characteristics (e.g. intensity, duration, frequency, etc.) have affected the functioning of forest ecosystems historically, and how changing drought characteristics (including multi-year droughts) may affect forest functioning in a future climate. We utilize the Regional Hydro-Ecological Simulation System (RHESSys) to simulate impacts of both historical droughts and scenarios of future droughts on forest ecosystems. RHESSys is a spatially-distributed and process-based model that captures the interactions between coupled biogeochemical and hydrologic cycles at catchment scales. Here our case study is the Trail Creek catchment of the Big Wood River basin in Idaho, the Northwestern USA. For historical simulations, we use the gridded meteorological data of 1979 to 2016; for future climate scenarios, we utilize downscaled data from GCMs that have been demonstrated to capture drought events in the Northwest of the USA. From these climate projections, we identify various types of drought in intensity and duration, including multi-year drought events. We evaluate the following responses of ecosystems to these events: 1) evapotranspiration and streamflow; 2) gross primary productivity; 3) the post-drought recovery of plant biomass; and 4) the forest functioning and recovery after multi-year droughts. This research is part of an integration project to examine the roles of drought, insect outbreak, and forest management activities on wildfire activity and its impacts. This project will provide improved information for forest managers and communities in the wild urban interface to adapt to climate change.

  10. An integrated land change model for projecting future climate and land change scenarios

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wimberly, Michael; Sohl, Terry L.; Lamsal, Aashis; Liu, Zhihua; Hawbaker, Todd J.

    2013-01-01

    Climate change will have myriad effects on ecosystems worldwide, and natural and anthropogenic disturbances will be key drivers of these dynamics. In addition to climatic effects, continual expansion of human settlement into fire-prone forests will alter fire regimes, increase human vulnerability, and constrain future forest management options. There is a need for modeling tools to support the simulation and assessment of new management strategies over large regions in the context of changing climate, shifting development patterns, and an expanding wildland-urban interface. To address this need, we developed a prototype land change simulator that combines human-driven land use change (derived from the FORE-SCE model) with natural disturbances and vegetation dynamics (derived from the LADS model) and incorporates novel feedbacks between human land use and disturbance regimes. The prototype model was implemented in a test region encompassing the Denver metropolitan area along with its surrounding forested and agricultural landscapes. Initial results document the feasibility of integrated land change modeling at a regional scale but also highlighted conceptual and technical challenges for this type of model integration. Ongoing development will focus on improving climate sensitivities and modeling constraints imposed by climate change and human population growth on forest management activities.

  11. Sierra Nevada Science Review

    Treesearch

    Constance Millar; Amy Lind; Rowan Rowntree; Carl Skinner; Jared Verner; Bill Zielinski; Robert Ziemer

    1998-01-01

    In January, 1998, the Pacific Southwest Region and Pacific Southwest Research Station of the Forest Service initiated a collaborative effort to incorporate new information into planning future management of Sierra Nevada national forests. The project, known as the Sierra Nevada Framework for Conservation and Collaboration, will incorporate the latest scientific...

  12. Assessing management effects on Oak forests in Austria

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gautam, Sishir; Pietsch, Stephan A.; Hasenauer, Hubert

    2010-05-01

    Historic land use as well as silvicultural management practices have changed the structures and species composition of central European forests. Such changes have effects on the growth of forests and contribute to global warming. As insufficient information on historic forest management is available it is hard to explain the effect of management on forests growth and its possible consequences to the environment. In this situation, the BIOME-BGC model, which integrates the main physical, biological and physiological processes based on current understanding of ecophysiology is an option for assessing the management effects through tracking the cycling of energy, water, carbon and nutrients within a given ecosystems. Such models are increasingly employed to simulate current and future forest dynamics. This study first compares observed standing tree volume, carbon and nitrogen content in soil in the high forests and coppice with standards stands of Oak forests in Austria. Biome BGC is then used to assess the effects of management on forest growth and to explain the differences with measured parameters. Close positive correlations and unbiased results and statistically insignificant differences between predicted and observed volumes indicates the application of the model as a diagnostic tool to assess management effects in oak forests. The observed data in 2006 and 2009 was further compared with the results of respective model runs. Further analysis on simulated data shows that thinning leads to an increase in growth efficiency (GE), nitrogen use efficiency (NUE) and water use efficiency (WUE), and to a decrease in the radiation use efficiency (RUE) in both forests. Among all studied growth parameters, only the difference in the NUE was statistically significant. This indicates that the difference in the yield of forests is mainly governed by the NUE difference in stands due to thinning. The coppice with standards system produces an equal amount of net primary production while consuming significantly less nitrogen compared to the high forests.

  13. Simulating adaptive wood harvest in a changing climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yousefpour, Rasoul; Nabel, Julia; Pongratz, Julia

    2016-04-01

    The world's forest experience substantial carbon exchange fluxes between land and atmosphere. Large carbon sinks occur in response to changes in environmental conditions (such as climate change and increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations), removing about one quarter of current anthropogenic CO2-emissions. Large sinks also occur due to regrowth of forest on areas of agricultural abandonment or forest management. Forest management, on the other hand, also leads to substantial amounts of carbon being eventually released to the atmosphere. Both sinks and sources attributable to forests are therefore dependent on the intensity of management. Forest management in turn depends on the availability of resources, which is influenced by environmental conditions and sustainability of management systems applied. Estimating future carbon fluxes therefore requires accounting for the interaction of environmental conditions, forest growth, and management. However, this interaction is not fully captured by current modeling approaches: Earth system models depict in detail interactions between climate, the carbon cycle, and vegetation growth, but use prescribed information on management. Resource needs and land management, however, are simulated by Integrated Assessment Models that typically only have coarse representations of the influence of environmental changes on vegetation growth and are typically based on the demand for wood driven by regional population growth and energy needs. Here we present a study that provides the link between environmental conditions, forest growth and management. We extend the land component JSBACH of the Max Planck Institute's Earth system model (MPI-ESM) to simulate potential wood harvest in response to altered growth conditions and thus as adaptive to changing climate and CO2 conditions. We apply the altered model to estimate potential wood harvest for future climates (representative concentration pathways, RCPs) for the management scenario of "sustained yields" (SY), i.e. that wood harvest is not allowed to reduce wood carbon stocks below their present-day average state. We find that the potentials for SY range from about 420 to 610 PgC cumulatively until 2100 depending on assumed future climate (RCPs 2.6, 4.5 or 8.5). They are thus substantially higher than the harvest prescribed in the context of the same RCPs for the coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP5), which ranged from about 130 to 210 PgC. The underlying drivers of the higher potentials of SY as compared to the RCP harvest are in all scenarios foremost avoided natural mortality, followed by avoided losses due to fire and windbreak. Further, usage of the increase in forest carbon stocks simulated with time under RCP harvest plays a large role in the first decades of the 21st century. The potential wood harvest that we simulate accounting for environmental changes does not include considerations on biodiversity and other ecosystem services or technical feasibility. However, the substantially higher simulated harvest from SY as compared to that prescribed from the RCPs and the difference found between climate scenarios highlights the need to account for effects of environmental changes on vegetation growth also in socio-economic models and thus the need for a consistent representation of climate-landuse interactions.

  14. Good fire, bad fire: how to think about forest land management and ecological processes.

    Treesearch

    Merrill R. Kaufmann; Ayn Shlisky; Marchand; Peter

    2005-01-01

    The first rule of tinkering is to save all the parts, according to forester, philosopher, and hunter Aldo Leopold. Leopold was thinking about wildfire 50 years ago when he also was questioning his own role in exterminating large predators, wondering how their removal might affect forest ecosystems in the future. Leopold was well ahead of his contemporaries in...

  15. Promoting and maintaining diversity in contemporary hardwood forests: Confronting contemporary drivers of change and the loss of ecological memory

    Treesearch

    Christopher R. Webster; Yvette L. Dickinson; Julia I. Burton; Lee E. Frelich; Michael A. Jenkins; Christel C. Kern; Patricia Raymond; Michael R. Saunders; Michael B. Walters; John L. Willis

    2018-01-01

    Declines in the diversity of herbaceous and woody plant species in the understory of eastern North American hardwood forests are increasingly common. Forest managers are tasked with maintaining and/or promoting species diversity and resilience; however, the success of these efforts depends on a robust understanding of past and future system dynamics and identification...

  16. Integrating ecosystem services into national Forest Service policy and operations

    Treesearch

    Robert Deal; Lisa Fong; Erin Phelps; Emily Weidner; Jonas Epstein; Tommie Herbert; Mary Snieckus; Nikola Smith; Tania Ellersick; Greg Arthaud

    2017-01-01

    The ecosystem services concept describes the many benefits people receive from nature. It highlights the importance of managing public and private lands sustainably to ensure these benefits continue into the future, and it closely aligns with the U.S. Forest Service (USFS) mission to “sustain the health, diversity, and productivity of the Nation’s forests and...

  17. Historical framework to explain long-term coupled human and natural system feedbacks: application to a multiple-ownership forest landscape in the northern Great Lakes region, USA

    Treesearch

    Michelle M. Steen-Adams; Nancy Langston; Mark D. O. Adams; David J. Mladenoff

    2015-01-01

    Current and future human and forest landscape conditions are influenced by the cumulative, unfolding history of socialecological interactions. Examining past system responses, especially unintended consequences, can reveal valuable insights that promote learning and adaptation in forest policy and management. Temporal couplings are complex, however; they can be...

  18. Using canonical correlation analysis to identify environmental attitude groups: considerations for national forest planning in the southwestern U.S.

    PubMed

    Prera, Alejandro J; Grimsrud, Kristine M; Thacher, Jennifer A; McCollum, Dan W; Berrens, Robert P

    2014-10-01

    As public land management agencies pursue region-specific resource management plans, with meaningful consideration of public attitudes and values, there is a need to characterize the complex mix of environmental attitudes in a diverse population. The contribution of this investigation is to make use of a unique household, mail/internet survey data set collected in 2007 in the Southwestern United States (Region 3 of the U.S. Forest Service). With over 5,800 survey responses to a set of 25 Public Land Value statements, canonical correlation analysis is able to identify 7 statistically distinct environmental attitudinal groups. We also examine the effect of expected changes in regional demographics on overall environmental attitudes, which may help guide in the development of socially acceptable long-term forest management policies. Results show significant support for conservationist management policies and passive environmental values, as well as a greater role for stakeholder groups in generating consensus for current and future forest management policies.

  19. Anticipating Forest and Range Land Development in Central Oregon (USA) for Landscape Analysis, with an Example Application Involving Mule Deer

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kline, Jeffrey D.; Moses, Alissa; Burcsu, Theresa

    2010-05-01

    Forest policymakers, public lands managers, and scientists in the Pacific Northwest (USA) seek ways to evaluate the landscape-level effects of policies and management through the multidisciplinary development and application of spatially explicit methods and models. The Interagency Mapping and Analysis Project (IMAP) is an ongoing effort to generate landscape-wide vegetation data and models to evaluate the integrated effects of disturbances and management activities on natural resource conditions in Oregon and Washington (USA). In this initial analysis, we characterized the spatial distribution of forest and range land development in a four-county pilot study region in central Oregon. The empirical model describes the spatial distribution of buildings and new building construction as a function of population growth, existing development, topography, land-use zoning, and other factors. We used the model to create geographic information system maps of likely future development based on human population projections to inform complementary landscape analyses underway involving vegetation, habitat, and wildfire interactions. In an example application, we use the model and resulting maps to show the potential impacts of future forest and range land development on mule deer ( Odocoileus hemionus) winter range. Results indicate significant development encroachment and habitat loss already in 2000 with development located along key migration routes and increasing through the projection period to 2040. The example application illustrates a simple way for policymakers and public lands managers to combine existing data and preliminary model outputs to begin to consider the potential effects of development on future landscape conditions.

  20. Balancing trade-offs between ecosystem services in Germany’s forests under climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gutsch, Martin; Lasch-Born, Petra; Kollas, Chris; Suckow, Felicitas; Reyer, Christopher P. O.

    2018-04-01

    Germany’s forests provide a variety of ecosystem services. Sustainable forest management aims to optimize the provision of these services at regional level. However, climate change will impact forest ecosystems and subsequently ecosystem services. The objective of this study is to quantify the effects of two alternative management scenarios and climate impacts on forest variables indicative of ecosystem services related to timber, habitat, water, and carbon. The ecosystem services are represented through nine model output variables (timber harvest, above and belowground biomass, net ecosystem production, soil carbon, percolation, nitrogen leaching, deadwood, tree dimension, broadleaf tree proportion) from the process-based forest model 4C. We simulated forest growth, carbon and water cycling until 2045 with 4C set-up for the whole German forest area based on National Forest Inventory data and driven by three management strategies (nature protection, biomass production and a baseline management) and an ensemble of regional climate scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 8.5). We provide results as relative changes compared to the baseline management and observed climate. Forest management measures have the strongest effects on ecosystem services inducing positive or negative changes of up to 40% depending on the ecosystem service in question, whereas climate change only slightly alters ecosystem services averaged over the whole forest area. The ecosystem services ‘carbon’ and ‘timber’ benefit from climate change, while ‘water’ and ‘habitat’ lose. We detect clear trade-offs between ‘timber’ and all other ecosystem services, as well as synergies between ‘habitat’ and ‘carbon’. When evaluating all ecosystem services simultaneously, our results reveal certain interrelations between climate and management scenarios. North-eastern and western forest regions are more suitable to provide timber (while minimizing the negative impacts on remaining ecosystem services) whereas southern and central forest regions are more suitable to fulfil ‘habitat’ and ‘carbon’ services. The results provide the base for future forest management optimizations at the regional scale in order to maximize ecosystem services and forest ecosystem sustainability at the national scale.

  1. The Futuring Process

    Treesearch

    Delmer L. Albright

    1987-01-01

    Futuring" is becoming a widely accepted approach to organization management and goal setting. Strategic planners for the United States military as well as the Forest Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, and the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection, use Futuring to develop action plans and organizational directions for their agencies.

  2. Visitor diversity through the recreation manager lens: comparing Forest Service Regions 8 (U S South) and 5 (California)

    Treesearch

    Cassandra Johnson Gaither; Nina S. Roberts; Kristin L. Hanula

    2015-01-01

    In response to changing demographics and cultural shifts in the U.S. population, the Forest Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture has initiated a range of “culturally transforming” management practices and priorities aimed at better reflecting both the current and future U.S. population (USDA 2011). This makeover also calls attention to the various publics served by...

  3. Understanding the effects of fire management practices on forest health: Implications for weeds and vegetation structure (Project INT-F-04-01) [Chapter 14

    Treesearch

    Anne E. Black; Peter Landres

    2011-01-01

    Current fire policy to restore ecosystem function and resiliency and reduce buildup of hazardous fuels implies a larger future role for fire (both natural and human ignitions) (USDA and USDOI 2000). Yet some fire management (such as building fire line, spike camps, or heli-spots) potentially causes both short- and long-term impacts to forest health. In the short run,...

  4. Rapid assessment of U.S. forest and soil organic carbon storage and forest biomass carbon-sequestration capacity

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sundquist, Eric T.; Ackerman, Katherine V.; Bliss, Norman B.; Kellndorfer, Josef M.; Reeves, Matt C.; Rollins, Matthew G.

    2009-01-01

    This report provides results of a rapid assessment of biological carbon stocks and forest biomass carbon sequestration capacity in the conterminous United States. Maps available from the U.S. Department of Agriculture are used to calculate estimates of current organic carbon storage in soils (73 petagrams of carbon, or PgC) and forest biomass (17 PgC). Of these totals, 3.5 PgC of soil organic carbon and 0.8 PgC of forest biomass carbon occur on lands managed by the U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI). Maps of potential vegetation are used to estimate hypothetical forest biomass carbon sequestration capacities that are 3–7 PgC higher than current forest biomass carbon storage in the conterminous United States. Most of the estimated hypothetical additional forest biomass carbon sequestration capacity is accrued in areas currently occupied by agriculture and development. Hypothetical forest biomass carbon sequestration capacities calculated for existing forests and woodlands are within ±1 PgC of estimated current forest biomass carbon storage. Hypothetical forest biomass sequestration capacities on lands managed by the DOI in the conterminous United States are 0–0.4 PgC higher than existing forest biomass carbon storage. Implications for forest and other land management practices are not considered in this report. Uncertainties in the values reported here are large and difficult to quantify, particularly for hypothetical carbon sequestration capacities. Nevertheless, this rapid assessment helps to frame policy and management discussion by providing estimates that can be compared to amounts necessary to reduce predicted future atmospheric carbon dioxide levels.

  5. Forest bird monitoring protocol for strategic habitat conservation and endangered species management on O'ahu Forest National Wildlife Refuge, Island of O'ahu, Hawai'i

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Camp, Richard J.; Gorresen, P. Marcos; Banko, Paul C.

    2011-01-01

    This report describes the results of a pilot forest bird survey and a consequent forest bird monitoring protocol that was developed for the O'ahu Forest National Wildlife Refuge, O'ahu Island, Hawai'i. The pilot survey was conducted to inform aspects of the monitoring protocol and to provide a baseline with which to compare future surveys on the Refuge. The protocol was developed in an adaptive management framework to track bird distribution and abundance and to meet the strategic habitat conservation requirements of the Refuge. Funding for this research was provided through a Science Support Partnership grant sponsored jointly by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS).

  6. Environmental drivers of deadwood dynamics in woodlands and forests

    Treesearch

    M. Garbarino; R. Marzano; John Shaw; J. N. Long

    2015-01-01

    Deadwood dynamics play a key role in many forest ecosystems. Understanding the mechanisms involved in the accumulation and depletion of deadwood can enhance our understanding of fundamental processes such as carbon sequestration and disturbance regimes, allowing better predictions of future changes related to alternative management and climate scenarios. A...

  7. Forest health and bark beetles

    Treesearch

    C. J. Fettig

    2012-01-01

    In recent years, bark beetles have caused significant tree mortality in the Sierra Nevada, rivaling mortality caused by wildfire in some locations. This chapter addresses two important questions: How can managers prepare for and influence levels of bark beetle-caused tree mortality given current forest conditions and future climate uncertainties? and How would the...

  8. Assessing the benefits and economic values of trees

    Treesearch

    David J. Nowak

    2017-01-01

    Understanding the environmental, economic, and social/community benefits of nature, in particular trees and forests, can lead to better vegetation management and designs to optimize environmental quality and human health for current and future generations. Computer models have been developed to assess forest composition and its associated effects on environmental...

  9. Managing hardwood-softwood mixtures for future forests in eastern North America: assessing suitability to projected climate change

    Treesearch

    John M. Kabrick; Kenneth L. Clark; Anthony W. D' Amato; Daniel C. Dey; Laura S. Kenefic; Christel C. Kern; Benjamin O. Knapp; David A. MacLean; Patricia Raymond; Justin D. Waskiewicz

    2017-01-01

    Despite growing interest in management strategies for climate change adaptation, there are few methods for assessing the ability of stands to endure or adapt to projected future climates. We developed a means for assigning climate "Compatibility" and "Adaptability" scores to stands for assessing the suitability of tree species for projected climate...

  10. A climate sensitive model of carbon transfer through atmosphere, vegetation and soil in managed forest ecosystems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Loustau, D.; Moreaux, V.; Bosc, A.; Trichet, P.; Kumari, J.; Rabemanantsoa, T.; Balesdent, J.; Jolivet, C.; Medlyn, B. E.; Cavaignac, S.; Nguyen-The, N.

    2012-12-01

    For predicting the future of the forest carbon cycle in forest ecosystems, it is necessary to account for both the climate and management impacts. Climate effects are significant not only at a short time scale but also at the temporal horizon of a forest life cycle e.g. through shift in atmospheric CO2 concentration, temperature and precipitation regimes induced by the enhanced greenhouse effect. Intensification of forest management concerns an increasing fraction of temperate and tropical forests and untouched forests represents only one third of the present forest area. Predicting tools are therefore needed to project climate and management impacts over the forest life cycle and understand the consequence of management on the forest ecosystem carbon cycle. This communication summarizes the structure, main components and properties of a carbon transfer model that describes the processes controlling the carbon cycle of managed forest ecosystems. The model, GO+, links three main components, (i) a module describing the vegetation-atmosphere mass and energy exchanges in 3D, (ii) a plant growth module and a (iii) soil carbon dynamics module in a consistent carbon scheme of transfer from atmosphere back into the atmosphere. It was calibrated and evaluated using observed data collected on coniferous and broadleaved forest stands. The model predicts the soil, water and energy balance of entire rotations of managed stands from the plantation to the final cut and according to a range of management alternatives. It accounts for the main soil and vegetation management operations such as soil preparation, understorey removal, thinnings and clearcutting. Including the available knowledge on the climatic sensitivity of biophysical and biogeochemical processes involved in atmospheric exchanges and carbon cycle of forest ecosystems, GO+ can produce long-term backward or forward simulations of forest carbon and water cycles under a range of climate and management scenarios. This model applications to the prediction and analysis of climate scenarios impacts on southwestern European forests underlines the role of management alternatives, precipitation regime, CO2 concentration and atmospheric humidity .Frequency of soil preparation operations and understorey management play a major role in controlling the net carbon flux into the atmosphere at the juvenile stage ( 0 to 10 y-old) whereas climate and rotation duration control the functioning of adult phase. The model predicts that a drier and warmer climate will reduce the forest productivity and deplete soil and carbon stocks in managed forest from Southwestern Europe within decades, such effects being amplified for most intensive management alternatives. This work was part of the European research project GHG-Europe (EU contract No. 244122) and the French national project FAST co-funded by the Ecology, Agriculture and Forestry Ministries and the Region Aquitaine.

  11. Understanding and managing the water use of planted forests in a changing environment

    Treesearch

    Jami Nettles

    2016-01-01

    Forest productivity will only become more important in the future, not just for carbon sequestration and renewable energy but for wood products and economic security for an increasing population. However, the threat of increasing drought and resource scarcity means a need for more explicit characterization of the water use of planted forests and the understanding of...

  12. Sierra Nevada Science Review. Report of the Science Review Team charged to synthesize new information of rangewide urgency to the national forests of the Sierra Nevada.

    Treesearch

    Constance Millar; Amy Lind; Rowan Rowntree; Carl Skinner; Jared Verner; William J. Zielinski; Robert R. Ziemer

    1998-01-01

    In January, 1998, the Pacific Southwest Region and Pacific Southwest Research Station of the Forest Service initiated a collaborative effort to incorporate new information into planning future management of Sierra Nevada national forests. The project, known as the Sierra Nevada Framework for Conservation and Collaboration, will incorporate the latest scientific...

  13. Effectiveness of fuel treatments for mitigating wildfire risk and sequestering forest carbon: a case study in the Lake Tahoe Basin

    Treesearch

    Louise Loudermilk; Alison Stanton; Robert M. Scheller; Thomas E. Dilts; Peter J. Weisberg; Carl Skinner; Jian Yang

    2014-01-01

    Fuel-reduction treatments are used extensively to reduce wildfire risk and restore forest diversity and function. In the near future, increasing regulation of carbon (C) emissions may force forest managers to balance the use of fuel treatments for reducing wildfire risk against an alternative goal of C sequestration. The objective of this study was to evaluate how long...

  14. Forest management to protect Colorado’s water resources: A synthesis report to support House Bill 16-1255

    Treesearch

    Niah B. H. Venable; Ryan Lockwood; Joseph DiMaria; Joseph Duda; Chuck Rhoades; Lisa Mason

    2017-01-01

    The Colorado Water Plan is a collaborative framework that sets forth objectives, goals and actions by which Coloradans can collectively address current and future water challenges through feasible and innovative solutions. As a majority of the state’s water supply flows from forested watersheds, the Colorado State Forest Service (CSFS), a service and outreach agency of...

  15. Modelling the role of forests on water provision services: a hydro-economic valuation approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beguería, S.; Campos, P.

    2015-12-01

    Hydro-economic models that allow integrating the ecological, hydrological, infrastructure, economic and social aspects into a coherent, scientifically- informed framework constitute preferred tools for supporting decision making in the context of integrated water resources management. We present a case study of water regulation and provision services of forests in the Andalusia region of Spain. Our model computes the physical water flows and conducts an economic environmental income and asset valuation of forest surface and underground water yield. Based on available hydrologic and economic data, we develop a comprehensive water account for all the forest lands at the regional scale. This forest water environmental valuation is integrated within a much larger project aiming at providing a robust and easily replicable accounting tool to evaluate yearly the total income and capital of forests, encompassing all measurable sources of private and public incomes (timber and cork production, auto-consumption, recreational activities, biodiversity conservation, carbon sequestration, water production, etc.). We also force our simulation with future socio-economic scenarios to quantify the physical and economic efects of expected trends or simulated public and private policies on future water resources. Only a comprehensive integrated tool may serve as a basis for the development of integrated policies, such as those internationally agreed and recommended for the management of water resources.

  16. Reconciling certification and intact forest landscape conservation.

    PubMed

    Kleinschroth, Fritz; Garcia, Claude; Ghazoul, Jaboury

    2018-05-29

    In 2014, the Forest Stewardship Council (FSC) added a new criterion to its principles that requires protection of intact forest landscapes (IFLs). An IFL is an extensive area of forest that lacks roads and other signs of human activity as detected through remote sensing. In the Congo basin, our analysis of road networks in formally approved concessionary logging areas revealed greater loss of IFL in certified than in noncertified concessions. In areas of informal (i.e., nonregulated) extraction, road networks are known to be less detectable by remote sensing. Under the current definition of IFL, companies certified under FSC standards are likely to be penalized relative to the noncertified as well as the informal logging sector on account of their planned road networks, despite an otherwise better standard of forest management. This could ultimately undermine certification and its wider adoption, with implications for the future of sustainable forest management.

  17. Potential climate change impacts on fire intensity and key wildfire suppression thresholds in Canada

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wotton, B. M.; Flannigan, M. D.; Marshall, G. A.

    2017-09-01

    Much research has been carried out on the potential impacts of climate change on forest fire activity in the boreal forest. Indeed, there is a general consensus that, while change will vary regionally across the vast extent of the boreal, in general the fire environment will become more conducive to fire. Land management agencies must consider ways to adapt to these new conditions. This paper examines the impact of that changed fire environment on overall wildfire suppression capability. We use multiple General Circulation Models and carbon emission pathways to generate future fire environment scenarios for Canada’s forested region. We then use these scenarios with the Canadian Forest Fire Behaviour Prediction System and spatial coverages of the current forest fuel composition across the landscape to examine potential variation in key fire behaviour outputs that influence whether fire management resources can effectively suppress fire. Specifically, we evaluate how the potential for crown fire occurrence and active growth of fires changes with the changing climate. We also examine future fire behaviour through the lens of operational fire intensity thresholds used to guide decisions about resources effectiveness. Results indicate that the proportion of days in fire seasons with the potential for unmanageable fire will increase across Canada’s forest, more than doubling in some regions in northern and eastern boreal forest.

  18. Aboveground carbon in Quebec forests: stock quantification at the provincial scale and assessment of temperature, precipitation and edaphic properties effects on the potential stand-level stocking

    PubMed Central

    Houle, Daniel; Ouimet, Rock; Lambert, Marie-Claude; Logan, Travis

    2016-01-01

    Biological carbon sequestration by forest ecosystems plays an important role in the net balance of greenhouse gases, acting as a carbon sink for anthropogenic CO2 emissions. Nevertheless, relatively little is known about the abiotic environmental factors (including climate) that control carbon storage in temperate and boreal forests and consequently, about their potential response to climate changes. From a set of more than 94,000 forest inventory plots and a large set of spatial data on forest attributes interpreted from aerial photographs, we constructed a fine-resolution map (∼375 m) of the current carbon stock in aboveground live biomass in the 435,000 km2 of managed forests in Quebec, Canada. Our analysis resulted in an area-weighted average aboveground carbon stock for productive forestland of 37.6 Mg ha−1, which is lower than commonly reported values for similar environment. Models capable of predicting the influence of mean annual temperature, annual precipitation, and soil physical environment on maximum stand-level aboveground carbon stock (MSAC) were developed. These models were then used to project the future MSAC in response to climate change. Our results indicate that the MSAC was significantly related to both mean annual temperature and precipitation, or to the interaction of these variables, and suggest that Quebec’s managed forests MSAC may increase by 20% by 2041–2070 in response to climate change. Along with changes in climate, the natural disturbance regime and forest management practices will nevertheless largely drive future carbon stock at the landscape scale. Overall, our results allow accurate accounting of carbon stock in aboveground live tree biomass of Quebec’s forests, and provide a better understanding of possible feedbacks between climate change and carbon storage in temperate and boreal forests. PMID:26966680

  19. Simulating Pacific Northwest Forest Response to Climate Change: How We Made Model Results Useful for Vulnerability Assessments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, J. B.; Kerns, B. K.; Halofsky, J.

    2014-12-01

    GCM-based climate projections and downscaled climate data proliferate, and there are many climate-aware vegetation models in use by researchers. Yet application of fine-scale DGVM based simulation output in national forest vulnerability assessments is not common, because there are technical, administrative and social barriers for their use by managers and policy makers. As part of a science-management climate change adaptation partnership, we performed simulations of vegetation response to climate change for four national forests in the Blue Mountains of Oregon using the MC2 dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) for use in vulnerability assessments. Our simulation results under business-as-usual scenarios suggest a starkly different future forest conditions for three out of the four national forests in the study area, making their adoption by forest managers a potential challenge. However, using DGVM output to structure discussion of potential vegetation changes provides a suitable framework to discuss the dynamic nature of vegetation change compared to using more commonly available model output (e.g. species distribution models). From the onset, we planned and coordinated our work with national forest managers to maximize the utility and the consideration of the simulation results in planning. Key lessons from this collaboration were: (1) structured and strategic selection of a small number climate change scenarios that capture the range of variability in future conditions simplified results; (2) collecting and integrating data from managers for use in simulations increased support and interest in applying output; (3) a structured, regionally focused, and hierarchical calibration of the DGVM produced well-validated results; (4) simple approaches to quantifying uncertainty in simulation results facilitated communication; and (5) interpretation of model results in a holistic context in relation to multiple lines of evidence produced balanced guidance. This latest point demonstrates the importance of using model out as a forum for discussion along with other information, rather than using model output in an inappropriately predictive sense. These lessons are being applied currently to other national forests in the Pacific Northwest to contribute in vulnerability assessments.

  20. Large-scale interdisciplinary experiments inform current and future forestry management options in the U.S

    Treesearch

    C.E. Peterson; P.D. Anderson

    2009-01-01

    Over the last 20 years, changing public values and increased ecological understanding have led to a paradigm shift in forestry from timber management to sustainable ecosystem management on U.S. federal lands. Forest managers are now seeking alternative management approaches that simultaneously meet socio-cultural, ecological and economic goals. Consequently, many field...

  1. Historical growth plots in the Pacific Southwest

    Treesearch

    Lawrence A. Rabin; William W. Oliver; Robert F. Powers; Martin W. Ritchie; Matt D. Busse; Eric E. Knapp

    2009-01-01

    In the past, researchers from the Pacific Southwest Research Station (PSW) undertook forest growth studies to evaluate how best to manage timber resources. However, historical and future data collected at PSW growth plots also have the potential to increase our understanding of the ecological processes occurring in our forests and shed light on national issues of...

  2. Hemlock woolly adelgid initiative: progress and future direction

    Treesearch

    Brad Onken; Melody Keena

    2008-01-01

    In 2001, the USDA Forest Service in cooperation with the National Association of State Foresters and the National Plant Board proposed a five-year program that would accelerate development and implementation of management options to reduce the spread and impact of hemlock woolly adelgid. From 2003-2007, this "Hemlock Woolly Adelgid Initiative" has involved...

  3. Biotic and abiotic mechanisms in the establishment of northern red oak seedlings: a review

    Treesearch

    Linda S. Gribko; Thomas M. Schuler; W. Mark Ford

    2002-01-01

    This review of literature pertaining to the biotic and abiotic mechanisms in the establishment of northern red oak seedlings is designed to aid forest managers and researchers interested in sustaining the oak component of the eastern and central hardwood forest regions. Recommendations for future research are presented.

  4. A Quality Classification System for Young Hardwood Trees - The First Step in Predicting Future Products

    Treesearch

    David L. Sonderman; Robert L. Brisbin

    1978-01-01

    Forest managers have no objective way to determine the relative value of culturally treated forest stands in terms of product potential. This paper describes the first step in the development of a quality classification system based on the measurement of individual tree characteristics for young hardwood stands.

  5. Assessing and forecasting change in northern forests

    Treesearch

    Stephen R. Shifley; W. Keith Moser; Sherri Wormstead

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of this report is to describe how yesterday's trends and today's choices might change the future forest landscape of the Northern United States from 2010 (the baseline year) to 2060. Its results are intended to help resource managers and policy makers identify actions that will sustain the health, productivity, diversity, and resilience of these...

  6. Forest carbon trends in the Southern United States

    Treesearch

    Robert A. Mickler; James E. Smith; Linda S. Heath

    2004-01-01

    Forest, agricultural, rangeland, wetland, and urban landscapes have different rates of carbon (C) sequestration and total C sequestration potential under alternative management options. Future changes in the proportion and spatial distribution of land use could increase or decrease the capacity of areas to sequester C in terrestrial ecosystems. As the ecosystems within...

  7. Fuel mapping for the future

    Treesearch

    C.W. Woodall; G.R. Holden; J.S. Vissage

    2004-01-01

    The large wildland fires that raged during the 2000 and 2002 fire seasons highlighted the need for a nationwide strategic assessment of forest fuels. The lack of a nationally consistent and comprehensive inventory of forest fuels has hindered large-scale assessments- essential for effective fuel hazard management and monitoring reduction treatments. Data from the USDA...

  8. Under the radar: advances in murrelet monitoring.

    Treesearch

    Sally Duncan

    2001-01-01

    Future choices in managing federal and private forest lands in the Pacific Northwest, particularly for commodity production, are partly dependent on how the threatened marbled murrelet responds to the Northwest Forest Plan. Is the plan functioning for this elusive species, and are populations stabilized or increasing?Because the murrelet forages at sea but...

  9. The once and future forest: Consequences of mountain pine beetle treatment decisions

    Treesearch

    Nancy E. Gillette; David L. Wood; Sarah J. Hines; Justin B. Runyon; Jose F. Negron

    2014-01-01

    Entomologists and silviculturists have long recommended management of stand basal area and/or mean tree diameter to mitigate the risk of mountain pine beetle (MPB) (Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins) outbreaks while simultaneously reducing wildfire risk. In recent decades, however, wildfire suppression and reduced harvests in western North America have created a forest...

  10. Estimation and modeling of forest attributes across large spatial scales using BiomeBGC, high-resolution imagery, LiDAR data, and inventory data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Golinkoff, Jordan Seth

    The accurate estimation of forest attributes at many different spatial scales is a critical problem. Forest landowners may be interested in estimating timber volume, forest biomass, and forest structure to determine their forest's condition and value. Counties and states may be interested to learn about their forests to develop sustainable management plans and policies related to forests, wildlife, and climate change. Countries and consortiums of countries need information about their forests to set global and national targets to deal with issues of climate change and deforestation as well as to set national targets and understand the state of their forest at a given point in time. This dissertation approaches these questions from two perspectives. The first perspective uses the process model Biome-BGC paired with inventory and remote sensing data to make inferences about a current forest state given known climate and site variables. Using a model of this type, future climate data can be used to make predictions about future forest states as well. An example of this work applied to a forest in northern California is presented. The second perspective of estimating forest attributes uses high resolution aerial imagery paired with light detection and ranging (LiDAR) remote sensing data to develop statistical estimates of forest structure. Two approaches within this perspective are presented: a pixel based approach and an object based approach. Both approaches can serve as the platform on which models (either empirical growth and yield models or process models) can be run to generate inferences about future forest state and current forest biogeochemical cycling.

  11. Evaluation of oak stump sprouting in the Missouri Ozarks ten years after harvest

    Treesearch

    Randy G. Jensen; Daniel C. Dey

    2008-01-01

    Managers in Missouri often want to manage forests to retain oak in the future. Oaks are valuable for timber and many wildlife species depend on acorns. Large advance reproduction and stump sprouts are the most competitive sources of regeneration. It is well known that oak stump sprouts contribute to future stands in even-age clearcuts in the Missouri Ozarks, but there...

  12. Darcy's law predicts widespread forest mortality under climate warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McDowell, Nathan G.; Allen, Craig D.

    2015-07-01

    Drought and heat-induced tree mortality is accelerating in many forest biomes as a consequence of a warming climate, resulting in a threat to global forests unlike any in recorded history. Forests store the majority of terrestrial carbon, thus their loss may have significant and sustained impacts on the global carbon cycle. We use a hydraulic corollary to Darcy’s law, a core principle of vascular plant physiology, to predict characteristics of plants that will survive and die during drought under warmer future climates. Plants that are tall with isohydric stomatal regulation, low hydraulic conductance, and high leaf area are most likely to die from future drought stress. Thus, tall trees of old-growth forests are at the greatest risk of loss, which has ominous implications for terrestrial carbon storage. This application of Darcy’s law indicates today’s forests generally should be replaced by shorter and more xeric plants, owing to future warmer droughts and associated wildfires and pest attacks. The Darcy’s corollary also provides a simple, robust framework for informing forest management interventions needed to promote the survival of current forests. Given the robustness of Darcy’s law for predictions of vascular plant function, we conclude with high certainty that today’s forests are going to be subject to continued increases in mortality rates that will result in substantial reorganization of their structure and carbon storage.

  13. Darcy’s law predicts widespread forest mortality under climate warming

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McDowell, Nate G.; Allen, Craig D.

    2015-01-01

    Drought and heat-induced tree mortality is accelerating in many forest biomes as a consequence of a warming climate, resulting in a threat to global forests unlike any in recorded history. Forests store the majority of terrestrial carbon, thus their loss may have significant and sustained impacts on the global carbon cycle. We use a hydraulic corollary to Darcy’s law, a core principle of vascular plant physiology, to predict characteristics of plants that will survive and die during drought under warmer future climates. Plants that are tall with isohydric stomatal regulation, low hydraulic conductance, and high leaf area are most likely to die from future drought stress. Thus, tall trees of old-growth forests are at the greatest risk of loss, which has ominous implications for terrestrial carbon storage. This application of Darcy’s law indicates today’s forests generally should be replaced by shorter and more xeric plants, owing to future warmer droughts and associated wildfires and pest attacks. The Darcy’s corollary also provides a simple, robust framework for informing forest management interventions needed to promote the survival of current forests. Given the robustness of Darcy’s law for predictions of vascular plant function, we conclude with high certainty that today’s forests are going to be subject to continued increases in mortality rates that will result in substantial reorganization of their structure and carbon storage.

  14. The history and future of methyl bromide alternatives used in the production of forest seedlings in the southern United States

    Treesearch

    Scott A. Enebak

    2013-01-01

    This paper gives a brief history of the Southern Forest Nursery Management Cooperative’s (SFNMC) efforts in testing methyl bromide (MBr) alternatives for soil fumigation. In the southeastern United States, fumigation with MBr has been the most commonly used method for producing high quality, pest-free forest-tree seedlings in an environment that is conducive for soil-...

  15. Effects of harvesting on spatial and temporal diversity of carbon stocks in a boreal forest landscape.

    PubMed

    Ter-Mikaelian, Michael T; Colombo, Stephen J; Chen, Jiaxin

    2013-10-01

    Carbon stocks in managed forests of Ontario, Canada, and in harvested wood products originated from these forests were estimated for 2010-2100. Simulations included four future forest harvesting scenarios based on historical harvesting levels (low, average, high, and maximum available) and a no-harvest scenario. In four harvesting scenarios, forest carbon stocks in Ontario's managed forest were estimated to range from 6202 to 6227 Mt C (millions of tons of carbon) in 2010, and from 6121 to 6428 Mt C by 2100. Inclusion of carbon stored in harvested wood products in use and in landfills changed the projected range in 2100 to 6710-6742 Mt C. For the no-harvest scenario, forest carbon stocks were projected to change from 6246 Mt C in 2010 to 6680 Mt C in 2100. Spatial variation in projected forest carbon stocks was strongly related to changes in forest age (r = 0.603), but had weak correlation with harvesting rates. For all managed forests in Ontario combined, projected carbon stocks in combined forest and harvested wood products converged to within 2% difference by 2100. The results suggest that harvesting in the boreal forest, if applied within limits of sustainable forest management, will eventually have a relatively small effect on long-term combined forest and wood products carbon stocks. However, there was a large time lag to approach carbon equality, with more than 90 years with a net reduction in stored carbon in harvested forests plus wood products compared to nonharvested boreal forest which also has low rates of natural disturbance. The eventual near equivalency of carbon stocks in nonharvested forest and forest that is harvested and protected from natural disturbance reflects both the accumulation of carbon in harvested wood products and the relatively young age at which boreal forest stands undergo natural succession in the absence of disturbance.

  16. A Novel Modelling Approach for Predicting Forest Growth and Yield under Climate Change.

    PubMed

    Ashraf, M Irfan; Meng, Fan-Rui; Bourque, Charles P-A; MacLean, David A

    2015-01-01

    Global climate is changing due to increasing anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases. Forest managers need growth and yield models that can be used to predict future forest dynamics during the transition period of present-day forests under a changing climatic regime. In this study, we developed a forest growth and yield model that can be used to predict individual-tree growth under current and projected future climatic conditions. The model was constructed by integrating historical tree growth records with predictions from an ecological process-based model using neural networks. The new model predicts basal area (BA) and volume growth for individual trees in pure or mixed species forests. For model development, tree-growth data under current climatic conditions were obtained using over 3000 permanent sample plots from the Province of Nova Scotia, Canada. Data to reflect tree growth under a changing climatic regime were projected with JABOWA-3 (an ecological process-based model). Model validation with designated data produced model efficiencies of 0.82 and 0.89 in predicting individual-tree BA and volume growth. Model efficiency is a relative index of model performance, where 1 indicates an ideal fit, while values lower than zero means the predictions are no better than the average of the observations. Overall mean prediction error (BIAS) of basal area and volume growth predictions was nominal (i.e., for BA: -0.0177 cm(2) 5-year(-1) and volume: 0.0008 m(3) 5-year(-1)). Model variability described by root mean squared error (RMSE) in basal area prediction was 40.53 cm(2) 5-year(-1) and 0.0393 m(3) 5-year(-1) in volume prediction. The new modelling approach has potential to reduce uncertainties in growth and yield predictions under different climate change scenarios. This novel approach provides an avenue for forest managers to generate required information for the management of forests in transitional periods of climate change. Artificial intelligence technology has substantial potential in forest modelling.

  17. A Novel Modelling Approach for Predicting Forest Growth and Yield under Climate Change

    PubMed Central

    Ashraf, M. Irfan; Meng, Fan-Rui; Bourque, Charles P.-A.; MacLean, David A.

    2015-01-01

    Global climate is changing due to increasing anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases. Forest managers need growth and yield models that can be used to predict future forest dynamics during the transition period of present-day forests under a changing climatic regime. In this study, we developed a forest growth and yield model that can be used to predict individual-tree growth under current and projected future climatic conditions. The model was constructed by integrating historical tree growth records with predictions from an ecological process-based model using neural networks. The new model predicts basal area (BA) and volume growth for individual trees in pure or mixed species forests. For model development, tree-growth data under current climatic conditions were obtained using over 3000 permanent sample plots from the Province of Nova Scotia, Canada. Data to reflect tree growth under a changing climatic regime were projected with JABOWA-3 (an ecological process-based model). Model validation with designated data produced model efficiencies of 0.82 and 0.89 in predicting individual-tree BA and volume growth. Model efficiency is a relative index of model performance, where 1 indicates an ideal fit, while values lower than zero means the predictions are no better than the average of the observations. Overall mean prediction error (BIAS) of basal area and volume growth predictions was nominal (i.e., for BA: -0.0177 cm2 5-year-1 and volume: 0.0008 m3 5-year-1). Model variability described by root mean squared error (RMSE) in basal area prediction was 40.53 cm2 5-year-1 and 0.0393 m3 5-year-1 in volume prediction. The new modelling approach has potential to reduce uncertainties in growth and yield predictions under different climate change scenarios. This novel approach provides an avenue for forest managers to generate required information for the management of forests in transitional periods of climate change. Artificial intelligence technology has substantial potential in forest modelling. PMID:26173081

  18. Assessing the effects of management on forest growth across France: insights from a new functional-structural model.

    PubMed

    Guillemot, Joannès; Delpierre, Nicolas; Vallet, Patrick; François, Christophe; Martin-StPaul, Nicolas K; Soudani, Kamel; Nicolas, Manuel; Badeau, Vincent; Dufrêne, Eric

    2014-09-01

    The structure of a forest stand, i.e. the distribution of tree size features, has strong effects on its functioning. The management of the structure is therefore an important tool in mitigating the impact of predicted changes in climate on forests, especially with respect to drought. Here, a new functional-structural model is presented and is used to assess the effects of management on forest functioning at a national scale. The stand process-based model (PBM) CASTANEA was coupled to a stand structure module (SSM) based on empirical tree-to-tree competition rules. The calibration of the SSM was based on a thorough analysis of intersite and interannual variability of competition asymmetry. The coupled CASTANEA-SSM model was evaluated across France using forest inventory data, and used to compare the effect of contrasted silvicultural practices on simulated stand carbon fluxes and growth. The asymmetry of competition varied consistently with stand productivity at both spatial and temporal scales. The modelling of the competition rules enabled efficient prediction of changes in stand structure within the CASTANEA PBM. The coupled model predicted an increase in net primary productivity (NPP) with management intensity, resulting in higher growth. This positive effect of management was found to vary at a national scale across France: the highest increases in NPP were attained in forests facing moderate to high water stress; however, the absolute effect of management on simulated stand growth remained moderate to low because stand thinning involved changes in carbon allocation at the tree scale. This modelling approach helps to identify the areas where management efforts should be concentrated in order to mitigate near-future drought impact on national forest productivity. Around a quarter of the French temperate oak and beech forests are currently in zones of high vulnerability, where management could thus mitigate the influence of climate change on forest yield.

  19. Future Forest Cover Change Scenarios with Implications for Landslide Risk: An Example from Buzau Subcarpathians, Romania

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Malek, Žiga; Boerboom, Luc; Glade, Thomas

    2015-11-01

    This study focuses on future forest cover change in Buzau Subcarpathians, a landslide prone region in Romania. Past and current trends suggest that the area might expect a future increase in deforestation. We developed spatially explicit scenarios until 2040 to analyze the spatial pattern of future forest cover change and potential changes to landslide risk. First, we generated transition probability maps using the weights of evidence method, followed by a cellular automata allocation model. We performed expert interviews, to develop two future forest management scenarios. The Alternative scenario (ALT) was defined by 67 % more deforestation than the Business as Usual scenario (BAU). We integrated the simulated scenarios with a landslide susceptibility map. In both scenarios, most of deforestation was projected in areas where landslides are less likely to occur. Still, 483 (ALT) and 276 (BAU) ha of deforestation were projected on areas with a high-landslide occurrence likelihood. Thus, deforestation could lead to a local-scale increase in landslide risk, in particular near or adjacent to forestry roads. The parallel process of near 10 % forest expansion until 2040 was projected to occur mostly on areas with high-landslide susceptibility. On a regional scale, forest expansion could so result in improved slope stability. We modeled two additional scenarios with an implemented landslide risk policy, excluding high-risk zones. The reduction of deforestation on high-risk areas was achieved without a drastic decrease in the accessibility of the areas. Together with forest expansion, it could therefore be used as a risk reduction strategy.

  20. Future Forest Cover Change Scenarios with Implications for Landslide Risk: An Example from Buzau Subcarpathians, Romania.

    PubMed

    Malek, Žiga; Boerboom, Luc; Glade, Thomas

    2015-11-01

    This study focuses on future forest cover change in Buzau Subcarpathians, a landslide prone region in Romania. Past and current trends suggest that the area might expect a future increase in deforestation. We developed spatially explicit scenarios until 2040 to analyze the spatial pattern of future forest cover change and potential changes to landslide risk. First, we generated transition probability maps using the weights of evidence method, followed by a cellular automata allocation model. We performed expert interviews, to develop two future forest management scenarios. The Alternative scenario (ALT) was defined by 67% more deforestation than the Business as Usual scenario (BAU). We integrated the simulated scenarios with a landslide susceptibility map. In both scenarios, most of deforestation was projected in areas where landslides are less likely to occur. Still, 483 (ALT) and 276 (BAU) ha of deforestation were projected on areas with a high-landslide occurrence likelihood. Thus, deforestation could lead to a local-scale increase in landslide risk, in particular near or adjacent to forestry roads. The parallel process of near 10% forest expansion until 2040 was projected to occur mostly on areas with high-landslide susceptibility. On a regional scale, forest expansion could so result in improved slope stability. We modeled two additional scenarios with an implemented landslide risk policy, excluding high-risk zones. The reduction of deforestation on high-risk areas was achieved without a drastic decrease in the accessibility of the areas. Together with forest expansion, it could therefore be used as a risk reduction strategy.

  1. Forest restoration as a strategy to mitigate climate impacts on wildfire, vegetation, and water in semiarid forests.

    PubMed

    O'Donnell, Frances C; Flatley, William T; Springer, Abraham E; Fulé, Peter Z

    2018-06-25

    Climate change and wildfire are interacting to drive vegetation change and potentially reduce water quantity and quality in the southwestern United States, Forest restoration is a management approach that could mitigate some of these negative outcomes. However, little information exists on how restoration combined with climate change might influence hydrology across large forest landscapes that incorporate multiple vegetation types and complex fire regimes. We combined spatially explicit vegetation and fire modeling with statistical water and sediment yield models for a large forested landscape (335,000 ha) on the Kaibab Plateau in northern Arizona, USA. Our objective was to assess the impacts of climate change and forest restoration on the future fire regime, forest vegetation, and watershed outputs. Our model results predict that the combination of climate change and high-severity fire will drive forest turnover, biomass declines, and compositional change in future forests. Restoration treatments may reduce the area burned in high-severity fires and reduce conversions from forested to non-forested conditions. Even though mid-elevation forests are the targets of restoration, the treatments are expected to delay the decline of high-elevation spruce-fir, aspen, and mixed conifer forests by reducing the occurrence of high-severity fires that may spread across ecoregions. We estimate that climate-induced vegetation changes will result in annual runoff declines of up to 10%, while restoration reduced or reversed this decline. The hydrologic model suggests that mid-elevation forests, which are the targets of restoration treatments, provide around 80% of runoff in this system and the conservation of mid- to high-elevation forests types provides the greatest benefit in terms of water conservation. We also predict that restoration treatments will conserve water quality by reducing patches of high-severity fire that are associated with high sediment yield. Restoration treatments are a management strategy that may reduce undesirable outcomes for multiple ecosystem services. © 2018 by the Ecological Society of America.

  2. Modeling the potential persistence of various ecological systems under CMIP5 future climate and land use scenarios throughout California, USA

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baker, B.; Ferschweiler, K.; Bachelet, D. M.; Sleeter, B. M.

    2016-12-01

    California's geographic location, topographic complexity and latitudinal climatic gradient give rise to great biological and ecological diversity. However, increased land use pressure, altered seasonal weather patterns, and changes in temperature and precipitation regimes are having pronounced effects on ecosystems and the multitude of services they provide for an increasing population. As a result, natural resource managers are faced with formidable challenges to maintain these critical services. The goals of this project were to better understand how projected 21st century climate and land-use change scenarios may alter ecosystem dynamics, the spatial distribution of various vegetation types and land-use patterns, and to provide a coarse scale "triage map" of where land managers may want to concentrate efforts to reduce ecological stress in order to mitigate the potential impacts of a changing climate. We used the MC2 dynamic global vegetation model and the LUCAS state-and-transition simulation model to simulate the potential effects of future climate and land-use change on ecological processes for the state of California. Historical climate data were obtained from the PRISM dataset and nine CMIP5 climate models were run for the RCP 8.5 scenario. Climate projections were combined with a business-as-usual land-use scenario based on local-scale land use histories. For ease of discussion, results from five simulation runs (historic, hot-dry, hot-wet, warm-dry, and warm-wet) are presented. Results showed large changes in the extent of urban and agricultural lands. In addition, several simulated potential vegetation types persisted in situ under all four future scenarios, although alterations in total area, total ecosystem carbon, and forest vigor (NPP/LAI) were noted. As might be expected, the majority of the forested types that persisted occurred on public lands. However, more than 78% of the simulated subtropical mixed forest and 26% of temperate evergreen needleleaf forest types persisted on private lands under all four future scenarios. Result suggest that building collaborations across management borders could be valuable tool to guide natural resource management actions into the future.

  3. Large-scale interdisciplinary experiments inform current and future forestry management options in the U.S. Pacific Northwest

    Treesearch

    Charles E. Peterson; Paul D. Anderson

    2009-01-01

    Over the last 20 years, changing public values and increased ecological understanding have led to a paradigm shift in forestry from timber management to sustainable ecosystem management on U.S. federal lands. Forest managers are now seeking alternative management approaches that simultaneously meet socio-cultural, ecological and economic goals. Consequently, many field...

  4. A vulnerability tool for adapting water and aquatic resources to climate change and extremes on the Shoshone National Forest, Wyoming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rice, J.; Joyce, L. A.; Armel, B.; Bevenger, G.; Zubic, R.

    2011-12-01

    Climate change introduces a significant challenge for land managers and decision makers managing the natural resources that provide many benefits from forests. These benefits include water for urban and agricultural uses, wildlife habitat, erosion and climate control, aquifer recharge, stream flows regulation, water temperature regulation, and cultural services such as outdoor recreation and aesthetic enjoyment. The Forest Service has responded to this challenge by developing a national strategy for responding to climate change (the National Roadmap for Responding to Climate Change, July 2010). In concert with this national strategy, the Forest Service's Westwide Climate Initiative has conducted 4 case studies on individual Forests in the western U.S to develop climate adaptation tools. Western National Forests are particularly vulnerable to climate change as they have high-mountain topography, diversity in climate and vegetation, large areas of water limited ecosystems, and increasing urbanization. Information about the vulnerability and capacity of resources to adapt to climate change and extremes is lacking. There is an urgent need to provide customized tools and synthesized local scale information about the impacts to resources from future climate change and extremes, as well as develop science based adaptation options and strategies in National Forest management and planning. The case study on the Shoshone National Forest has aligned its objectives with management needs by developing a climate extreme vulnerability tool that guides adaptation options development. The vulnerability tool determines the likely degree to which native Yellowstone cutthroat trout and water availability are susceptible to, or unable to cope with adverse effects of climate change extremes. We spatially categorize vulnerability for water and native trout resources using exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity indicators that use minimum and maximum climate and GIS data. Results show that the vulnerability of water availability may increase in areas that have less storage and become more dominated by rain instead of snow. Native trout habitat was found to improve in some areas from warmer temperatures suggesting future refugia habitat may need to be a focus of conservation efforts. The climate extreme vulnerability tool provides Forest Service resource managers science based information that guides adaptation strategy development; prioritize conservation projects; guides monitoring efforts, and helps promote more resilient ecosystems undergoing the effects of climate change.

  5. A Survery of Timberland Investment Management Organizations Forestland Management in the South

    Treesearch

    Jacek Siry; Frederick W. Cubbage

    2001-01-01

    The assets of Timberland Investment Management Organizations (TIMOS) have rapidly grown over the past two decades. indicating their increasing importance for timber supply in the South. A TIMOS survey was conducted to assess their current and future investments and forest management approaches. The results indicate that TIMOS currently hold about 4.2 million acres of...

  6. Getting to the future through silviculture - Workshop proceedings

    Treesearch

    Dennis Murphy

    1992-01-01

    Includes 19 papers documenting presentations at the 1991 Forest Service National Silviculture Workshop. Discussions focus on the role of silviculture in New Perspectives (ecosystem management), new approaches to the practice of silviculture, and examples of successful integration of practices into multi resource management.

  7. Quantifying density-independent mortality of temperate tree species

    Treesearch

    Heather E Lintz; Andrew N. Gray; Andrew Yost; Richard Sniezko; Chris Woodall; Matt Reilly; Karen Hutten; Mark Elliott

    2016-01-01

    Forest resilience to climate change is a topic of national concern as our standing assets and future forestsare important to our livelihood. Many tree species are predicted to decline or disappear while othersmay be able to adapt or migrate. Efforts to quantify and disseminate the current condition of forests areurgently needed to guide management and policy. Here, we...

  8. Tamm Review: Management of mixed-severity fire regime forests in Oregon, Washington, and Northern California

    Treesearch

    Paul F. Hessburg; Thomas A. Spies; David A. Perry; Carl N. Skinner; Alan H. Taylor; Peter M. Brown; Scott L. Stephens; Andrew J. Larson; Derek J. Churchill; Nicholas A. Povak; Peter H. Singleton; Brenda McComb; William J. Zielinski; Brandon M. Collins; R. Brion Salter; John J. Keane; Jerry F. Franklin; Greg Riegel

    2016-01-01

    Increasingly, objectives for forests with moderate- or mixed-severity fire regimes are to restore successionally diverse landscapes that are resistant and resilient to current and future stressors. Maintaining native species and characteristic processes requires this successional diversity, but methods to achieve it are poorly explained in the literature. In the Inland...

  9. Using Biomass to Improve Site Quality and Carbon Sequestration

    Treesearch

    Bryce J. Stokes; Felipe G. Sanchez; Emily A. Carter

    1998-01-01

    The future demands on forest lands are a concern because of reduced productivity, especially on inherently poor sites, sites with long-depleted soils, or those soils that bear repeated, intensive short rotations. Forests are also an important carbon sink and, when well managed, can make even more significant contributions to sequestration and to reduction of greenhouse...

  10. Planning the future's forests with assisted migration [Chapter 8

    Treesearch

    Mary I. Williams; R. Kasten Dumroese

    2016-01-01

    If the climate changes faster than the adaptation or migration capability of plants (Zhu et al. 2012; Gray and Hamann 2013), foresters and other land managers will face an overwhelming challenge. Growing trees that survive may become more important than growing perfectly formed trees (Hebda 2008) and may require selection of adapted plant materials and/or assisting the...

  11. Prescribed fire and oak seedling development in an Appalachian forest

    Treesearch

    Jacob Royse; Mary Arthur; David Loftis

    2009-01-01

    In recent decades considerable research has focused on the use of prescribed fire in oak-dominated forests with the management objective of promoting oak regeneration for future overstory dominance. These studies typically focus on the response of oak seedlings and saplings already in place when experimental prescribed fires are set because it is difficult to time...

  12. Coastal Virginia's timber resource - trends, present conditions, and opportunities for improvement

    Treesearch

    Raymond M. Sheffield

    1978-01-01

    The present condition and future of the timber resource in the Coastal Plain of Virginia have caused increasing concern among resource planners, land managers, and citizens. Problems identified in past forest surveys contributed to this concern. This report focuses on some of the timber resource problems of the Coastal Plain by presenting forest resource trends,...

  13. Headwater streams and forest management: does ecoregional context influence logging effects on benthic communities?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Medhurst, R. Bruce; Wipfli, Mark S.; Binckley, Chris; Polivka, Karl; Hessburg, Paul F.; Salter, R. Brion

    2010-01-01

    Effects of forest management on stream communities have been widely documented, but the role that climate plays in the disturbance outcomes is not understood. In order to determine whether the effect of disturbance from forest management on headwater stream communities varies by climate, we evaluated benthic macroinvertebrate communities in 24 headwater streams that differed in forest management (logged-roaded vs. unlogged-unroaded, hereafter logged and unlogged) within two ecological sub-regions (wet versus dry) within the eastern Cascade Range, Washington, USA. In both ecoregions, total macroinvertebrate density was highest at logged sites (P = 0.001) with gathering-collectors and shredders dominating. Total taxonomic richness and diversity did not differ between ecoregions or forest management types. Shredder densities were positively correlated with total deciduous and Sitka alder (Alnus sinuata) riparian cover. Further, differences in shredder density between logged and unlogged sites were greater in the wet ecoregion (logging × ecoregion interaction; P = 0.006) suggesting that differences in post-logging forest succession between ecoregions were responsible for differences in shredder abundance. Headwater stream benthic community structure was influenced by logging and regional differences in climate. Future development of ecoregional classification models at the subbasin scale, and use of functional metrics in addition to structural metrics, may allow for more accurate assessments of anthropogenic disturbances in mountainous regions where mosaics of localized differences in climate are common.

  14. Projecting biodiversity and wood production in future forest landscapes: 15 key modeling considerations.

    PubMed

    Felton, Adam; Ranius, Thomas; Roberge, Jean-Michel; Öhman, Karin; Lämås, Tomas; Hynynen, Jari; Juutinen, Artti; Mönkkönen, Mikko; Nilsson, Urban; Lundmark, Tomas; Nordin, Annika

    2017-07-15

    A variety of modeling approaches can be used to project the future development of forest systems, and help to assess the implications of different management alternatives for biodiversity and ecosystem services. This diversity of approaches does however present both an opportunity and an obstacle for those trying to decide which modeling technique to apply, and interpreting the management implications of model output. Furthermore, the breadth of issues relevant to addressing key questions related to forest ecology, conservation biology, silviculture, economics, requires insights stemming from a number of distinct scientific disciplines. As forest planners, conservation ecologists, ecological economists and silviculturalists, experienced with modeling trade-offs and synergies between biodiversity and wood biomass production, we identified fifteen key considerations relevant to assessing the pros and cons of alternative modeling approaches. Specifically we identified key considerations linked to study question formulation, modeling forest dynamics, forest processes, study landscapes, spatial and temporal aspects, and the key response metrics - biodiversity and wood biomass production, as well as dealing with trade-offs and uncertainties. We also provide illustrative examples from the modeling literature stemming from the key considerations assessed. We use our findings to reiterate the need for explicitly addressing and conveying the limitations and uncertainties of any modeling approach taken, and the need for interdisciplinary research efforts when addressing the conservation of biodiversity and sustainable use of environmental resources. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Spatial and temporal patterns of carbon storage in forest ecosystems on Hainan island, southern China.

    PubMed

    Ren, Hai; Li, Linjun; Liu, Qiang; Wang, Xu; Li, Yide; Hui, Dafeng; Jian, Shuguang; Wang, Jun; Yang, Huai; Lu, Hongfang; Zhou, Guoyi; Tang, Xuli; Zhang, Qianmei; Wang, Dong; Yuan, Lianlian; Chen, Xubing

    2014-01-01

    Spatial and temporal patterns of carbon (C) storage in forest ecosystems significantly affect the terrestrial C budget, but such patterns are unclear in the forests in Hainan Province, the largest tropical island in China. Here, we estimated the spatial and temporal patterns of C storage from 1993-2008 in Hainan's forest ecosystems by combining our measured data with four consecutive national forest inventories data. Forest coverage increased from 20.7% in the 1950s to 56.4% in the 2010s. The average C density of 163.7 Mg C/ha in Hainan's forest ecosystems in this study was slightly higher than that of China's mainland forests, but was remarkably lower than that in the tropical forests worldwide. Total forest ecosystem C storage in Hainan increased from 109.51 Tg in 1993 to 279.17 Tg in 2008. Soil C accounted for more than 70% of total forest ecosystem C. The spatial distribution of forest C storage in Hainan was uneven, reflecting differences in land use change and forest management. The potential carbon sequestration of forest ecosystems was 77.3 Tg C if all forested lands were restored to natural tropical forests. To increase the C sequestration potential on Hainan Island, future forest management should focus on the conservation of natural forests, selection of tree species, planting of understory species, and implementation of sustainable practices.

  16. Spatial and Temporal Patterns of Carbon Storage in Forest Ecosystems on Hainan Island, Southern China

    PubMed Central

    Tang, Xuli; Zhang, Qianmei; Wang, Dong; Yuan, Lianlian; Chen, Xubing

    2014-01-01

    Spatial and temporal patterns of carbon (C) storage in forest ecosystems significantly affect the terrestrial C budget, but such patterns are unclear in the forests in Hainan Province, the largest tropical island in China. Here, we estimated the spatial and temporal patterns of C storage from 1993–2008 in Hainan's forest ecosystems by combining our measured data with four consecutive national forest inventories data. Forest coverage increased from 20.7% in the 1950s to 56.4% in the 2010s. The average C density of 163.7 Mg C/ha in Hainan's forest ecosystems in this study was slightly higher than that of China's mainland forests, but was remarkably lower than that in the tropical forests worldwide. Total forest ecosystem C storage in Hainan increased from 109.51 Tg in 1993 to 279.17 Tg in 2008. Soil C accounted for more than 70% of total forest ecosystem C. The spatial distribution of forest C storage in Hainan was uneven, reflecting differences in land use change and forest management. The potential carbon sequestration of forest ecosystems was 77.3 Tg C if all forested lands were restored to natural tropical forests. To increase the C sequestration potential on Hainan Island, future forest management should focus on the conservation of natural forests, selection of tree species, planting of understory species, and implementation of sustainable practices. PMID:25229628

  17. Forest Succession and Maternity Day roost selection by Myotis septentrionalis in a mesophytic hardwood forest

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Silvis, Alexander; Ford, W. Mark; Eric R. Britzke,; Nathan R. Beane,; Joshua B. Johnson,

    2012-01-01

    Conservation of summer maternity roosts is considered critical for bat management in North America, yet many aspects of the physical and environmental factors that drive roost selection are poorly understood. We tracked 58 female northern bats (Myotis septentrionalis) to 105 roost trees of 21 species on the Fort Knox military reservation in north-central Kentucky during the summer of 2011. Sassafras (Sassafras albidum) was used as a day roost more than expected based on forest stand-level availability and accounted for 48.6% of all observed day roosts. Using logistic regression and an information theoretic approach, we were unable to reliably differentiate between sassafras and other roost species or between day roosts used during different maternity periods using models representative of individual tree metrics, site metrics, topographic location, or combinations of these factors. For northern bats, we suggest that day-roost selection is not a function of differences between individual tree species per se, but rather of forest successional patterns, stand and tree structure. Present successional trajectories may not provide this particular selected structure again without management intervention, thereby suggesting that resource managers take a relatively long retrospective view to manage current and future forest conditions for bats.

  18. Managing the world's forests.

    PubMed

    Sharma, N; Rowe, R

    1992-06-01

    Forests play a vital role in balancing natural systems: the stabilization of global climate and the management of water and land. 30% of the earth's total land area is forested. 66% of the tropical moist forests are in Latin America and the remainder in Africa and Asia. 75% of tropical dry forests are in Africa. Temperate forests are primarily in developed countries. Deforestation and misuse of forests occurs primarily in developing countries at significant social, economic, and environmental costs. Losses have occurred in fuelwood, fodder, timber, forest products, biological diversity, habitats, genetic materials for food and medicine. The World Bank's evolving role in forestry is briefly described. Agreement has not been reached among people or nations about the most appropriate means to balance conservation and development goals. The challenge is to stabilize existing forests and increase forest planting. The causes of forest degradation must be understood. Direct causes include agricultural encroachment, cattle ranching, fuelwood gathering, commercial logging, and infrastructure development. These direct causes are driven by economic, social, and political forces: market and policy failures, population growth, and poverty. The market failures include: 1) the lack of clearly defined property rights on forest resources for now and the future, 2) the conflict between individual and societal needs, 3) the difficulty in placing a value on nonmarket environmental services and joint products, and 4) the separation between private and social costs. The solution is action at the local, national, and global levels. Countries must establish forest policy. The existing government incentives which promote deforestation must be changed. For example, concession policy and royalty systems must be corrected; explicit and implicit export subsidies on timber and forest products must be stopped. Private incentives must be established to promote planting of trees, practicing preservation, and setting up sustainable management systems. Property rights must be clearly defined and land use policies must spell out forest use patterns. A global strategy for forest management is needed for conservation, protection, reforestation, agricultural and rural development, sustainable use, and research with funding.

  19. Forest ecosystems of temperate climatic regions: from ancient use to climate change.

    PubMed

    Gilliam, Frank S

    2016-12-01

    871 I. 871 II. 874 III. 875 IV. 878 V. 882 884 References 884 SUMMARY: Humans have long utilized resources from all forest biomes, but the most indelible anthropogenic signature has been the expanse of human populations in temperate forests. The purpose of this review is to bring into focus the diverse forests of the temperate region of the biosphere, including those of hardwood, conifer and mixed dominance, with a particular emphasis on crucial challenges for the future of these forested areas. Implicit in the term 'temperate' is that the predominant climate of these forest regions has distinct cyclic, seasonal changes involving periods of growth and dormancy. The specific temporal patterns of seasonal change, however, display an impressive variability among temperate forest regions. In addition to the more apparent current anthropogenic disturbances of temperate forests, such as forest management and conversion to agriculture, human alteration of temperate forests is actually an ancient phenomenon, going as far back as 7000 yr before present (bp). As deep-seated as these past legacies are for temperate forests, all current and future perturbations, including timber harvesting, excess nitrogen deposition, altered species' phenologies, and increasing frequency of drought and fire, must be viewed through the lens of climate change. © 2016 The Author. New Phytologist © 2016 New Phytologist Trust.

  20. Applying the ED QUEST Planning Model in a School of Management: A Case Study.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ptaszynski, James Garner; Morrison, James L.

    1990-01-01

    The Strategic Planning Committee at the Graduate School of Management, Wake Forest University, identified what issues, trends, and possible events might affect the school in the future. The implementation of the ED QUEST planning model is described. (MLW)

  1. Climate change impacts on forest fires: the stakeholders' perspective

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Giannakopoulos, C.; Roussos, A.; Karali, A.; Hatzaki, M.; Xanthopoulos, G.; Chatzinikos, E.; Fyllas, N.; Georgiades, N.; Karetsos, G.; Maheras, G.; Nikolaou, I.; Proutsos, N.; Sbarounis, T.; Tsaggari, K.; Tzamtzis, I.; Goodess, C.

    2012-04-01

    In this work, we present a synthesis of the presentations and discussions which arose during a workshop on 'Impacts of climate change on forest fires' held in September 2011 at the National Observatory of Athens, Greece in the framework of EU project CLIMRUN. At first, a general presentation about climate change and extremes in the Greek territory provided the necessary background to the audience and highlighted the need for data and information exchange between scientists and stakeholders through climate services within CLIMRUN. Discussions and presentations that followed linked climate with forest science through the use of a meteorological index for fire risk and future projections of fire danger using regional climate models. The current situation on Greek forests was also presented, as well as future steps that should be taken to ameliorate the situation under a climate change world. A time series analysis of changes in forest fires using available historical data on forest ecosystems in Greece was given in this session. This led to the topic of forest fire risk assessment and fire prevention, stating all actions towards sustainable management of forests and effective mechanisms to control fires under climate change. Options for a smooth adaptation of forests to climate change were discussed together with the lessons learned on practical level on prevention, repression and rehabilitation of forest fires. In between there were useful interventions on sustainable hunting and biodiversity protection and on climate change impacts on forest ecosystems dynamics. The importance of developing an educational program for primary/secondary school students on forest fire management was also highlighted. The perspective of forest stakeholders on climate change and how this change can affect their current or future activities was addressed through a questionnaire they were asked to complete. Results showed that the majority of the participants consider climate variability to be important or very important and to influence their activities. Extreme climate events, desertification and drought were regarded as the most important environmental problems along with loss of biodiversity. Most of the participants answered that they use historical data for research, and would welcome climate data and services targeted to their sector if offered. Acknowledgement: This work was supported by the EU project CLIMRUN under contract FP7-ENV-2010- 265192.

  2. The Costs of Climate Change: Impact of Future Snow Cover Projections on Valuation of Albedo in Forest Management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Burakowski, E. A.; Lutz, D. A.

    2014-12-01

    Surface albedo provides an important climate regulating ecosystem service, particularly in the mid-latitudes where seasonal snow cover influences surface radiation budgets. In the case of substantial seasonal snow cover, the influence of albedo can equal or surpass the climatic benefits of carbon sequestration from forest growth. Climate mitigation platforms should therefore consider albedo in their framework in order to integrate these two climatic services in an economic context for the effective design and implementation of forest management projects. Over the next century, the influence of surface albedo is projected to diminish under higher emissions scenarios due to an overall decrease in snow depth and duration of snow cover in the mid-latitudes. In this study, we focus on the change in economic value of winter albedo in the northeastern United States projected through 2100 using the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) a1 and b1 scenarios. Statistically downscaled temperature and precipitation are used as input to the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model to provide future daily snow depth fields through 2100. Using VIC projections of future snow depth, projected winter albedo fields over deforested lands were generated using an empirical logarithmic relationship between snow depth and albedo derived from a volunteer network of snow observers in New Hampshire over the period Nov 2011 through 2014. Our results show that greater reductions in snow depth and the number of winter days with snow cover in the a1 compared to the b1 scenario reduce wintertime albedo when forested lands are harvested. This result has implications on future trade-offs among albedo, carbon storage, and timber value that should be investigated in greater detail. The impacts of forest harvest on radiative forcing associated with energy redistribution (e.g., latent heat and surface roughness length) should also be considered in future work.

  3. Darcy's law predicts widespread forest mortalityunder climate warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Allen, C. D.; McDowell, N. G.

    2015-12-01

    Drought and heat-induced tree mortality is accelerating in many forest biomes as a consequence of a warming climate, resulting in a threat to global forests unlike any in recorded history. Forests store the majority of terrestrial carbon, thus their loss may have significant and sustained impacts on the global carbon cycle. We used a hydraulic corollary to Darcy's law, a core principle of vascular plant physiology, to predict characteristics of plants that will survive and die during drought under warmer future climates. Plants that are tall with isohydric stomatal regulation, low hydraulic conductance, and high leaf area are most likely to die from future drought stress. Thus, tall trees of old-growth forests are at the greatest risk of loss, which has ominous implications for terrestrial carbon storage. This application of Darcy's law indicates today's forests generally should be replaced by shorter and more xeric plants, owing to future warmer droughts and associated wildfires and pest attacks. The Darcy's corollary also provides a simple, robust framework for informing forest management interventions needed to promote the survival of current forests. There are assumptions and omissions in this theoretical prediction, as well as new evidence supporting its predictions, both of which I will review. Given the robustness of Darcy's law for predictions of vascular plant function, we conclude with high certainty that today's forests are going to be subject to continued increases in mortality rates that will result in substantial reorganization of their structure and carbon storage.

  4. Too early to tell, or too late to rescue? Adaptive management under scrutiny.

    Treesearch

    Sally Duncan

    2001-01-01

    Key to the long-term success of implementing the Northwest Forest Plan (NWFP) is adaptive management—the idea of treating management policies as experiments, learning from them, and using them as a basis for changes and adjustments. Although much of the NWFP involves standards and guides that prescribe future management, and restrictive allocations such as...

  5. Relative contributions of set-asides and tree retention to the long-term availability of key forest biodiversity structures at the landscape scale.

    PubMed

    Roberge, Jean-Michel; Lämås, Tomas; Lundmark, Tomas; Ranius, Thomas; Felton, Adam; Nordin, Annika

    2015-05-01

    Over previous decades new environmental measures have been implemented in forestry. In Fennoscandia, forest management practices were modified to set aside conservation areas and to retain trees at final felling. In this study we simulated the long-term effects of set-aside establishment and tree retention practices on the future availability of large trees and dead wood, two forest structures of documented importance to biodiversity conservation. Using a forest decision support system (Heureka), we projected the amounts of these structures over 200 years in two managed north Swedish landscapes, under management scenarios with and without set-asides and tree retention. In line with common best practice, we simulated set-asides covering 5% of the productive area with priority to older stands, as well as ∼5% green-tree retention (solitary trees and forest patches) including high-stump creation at final felling. We found that only tree retention contributed to substantial increases in the future density of large (DBH ≥35 cm) deciduous trees, while both measures made significant contributions to the availability of large conifers. It took more than half a century to observe stronger increases in the densities of large deciduous trees as an effect of tree retention. The mean landscape-scale volumes of hard dead wood fluctuated widely, but the conservation measures yielded values which were, on average over the entire simulation period, about 2.5 times as high as for scenarios without these measures. While the density of large conifers increased with time in the landscape initially dominated by younger forest, best practice conservation measures did not avert a long-term decrease in large conifer density in the landscape initially comprised of more old forest. Our results highlight the needs to adopt a long temporal perspective and to consider initial landscape conditions when evaluating the large-scale effects of conservation measures on forest biodiversity. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Past and future changes in Canadian boreal wildfire activity.

    PubMed

    Girardin, Martin P; Mudelsee, Manfred

    2008-03-01

    Climate change in Canadian boreal forests is usually associated with increased drought severity and fire activity. However, future fire activity could well be within the range of values experienced during the preindustrial period. In this study, we contrast 21st century forecasts of fire occurrence (FireOcc, number of large forest fires per year) in the southern part of the Boreal Shield, Canada, with the historical range of the past 240 years statistically reconstructed from tree-ring width data. First, a historical relationship between drought indices and FireOcc is developed over the calibration period 1959-1998. Next, together with seven tree-ring based drought reconstructions covering the last 240 years and simulations from the CGCM3 and ECHAM4 global climate models, the calibration model is used to estimate past (prior to 1959) and future (post 1999) FireOcc. Last, time-dependent changes in mean FireOcc and in the occurrence rate of extreme fire years are evaluated with the aid of advanced methods of statistical time series analysis. Results suggest that the increase in precipitation projected toward the end of the 21st century will be insufficient to compensate for increasing temperatures and will be insufficient to maintain potential evapotranspiration at current levels. Limited moisture availability would cause FireOcc to increase as well. But will future FireOcc exceed its historical range? The results obtained from our approach suggest high probabilities of seeing future FireOcc reach the upper limit of the historical range. Predictions, which are essentially weighed on northwestern Ontario and eastern boreal Manitoba, indicate that, by 2061-2100, typical FireOcc could increase by more than 34% when compared with the past two centuries. Increases in fire activity as projected by this study could negatively affect the implementation in the next century of forest management inspired by historical or natural disturbance dynamics. This approach is indeed feasible only if current and future fire activities are sufficiently low compared with the preindustrial fire activity, so a substitution of fire by forest management could occur without elevating the overall frequency of disturbance. Conceivable management options will likely have to be directed toward minimizing the adverse impacts of the increasing fire activity.

  7. Social and Environmental Impacts of Forest Management Certification in Indonesia

    PubMed Central

    Miteva, Daniela A.; Loucks, Colby J.; Pattanayak, Subhrendu K.

    2015-01-01

    In response to unsustainable timber production in tropical forest concessions, voluntary forest management certification programs such as the Forest Stewardship Council (FSC) have been introduced to improve environmental, social, and economic performance over existing management practices. However, despite the proliferation of forest certification over the past two decades, few studies have evaluated its effectiveness. Using temporally and spatially explicit village-level data on environmental and socio-economic indicators in Kalimantan (Indonesia), we evaluate the performance of the FSC-certified timber concessions compared to non-certified logging concessions. Employing triple difference matching estimators, we find that between 2000 and 2008 FSC reduced aggregate deforestation by 5 percentage points and the incidence of air pollution by 31%. It had no statistically significant impacts on fire incidence or core areas, but increased forest perforation by 4 km2 on average. In addition, we find that FSC reduced firewood dependence (by 33%), respiratory infections (by 32%) and malnutrition (by 1 person) on average. By conducting a rigorous statistical evaluation of FSC certification in a biodiversity hotspot such as Indonesia, we provide a reference point and offer methodological and data lessons that could aid the design of ongoing and future evaluations of a potentially critical conservation policy. PMID:26132491

  8. Vulnerability of Forests in India: A National Scale Assessment.

    PubMed

    Sharma, Jagmohan; Upgupta, Sujata; Jayaraman, Mathangi; Chaturvedi, Rajiv Kumar; Bala, Govindswamy; Ravindranath, N H

    2017-09-01

    Forests are subjected to stress from climatic and non-climatic sources. In this study, we have reported the results of inherent, as well as climate change driven vulnerability assessments for Indian forests. To assess inherent vulnerability of forests under current climate, we have used four indicators, namely biological richness, disturbance index, canopy cover, and slope. The assessment is presented as spatial profile of inherent vulnerability in low, medium, high and very high vulnerability classes. Fourty percent forest grid points in India show high or very high inherent vulnerability. Plantation forests show higher inherent vulnerability than natural forests. We assess the climate change driven vulnerability by combining the results of inherent vulnerability assessment with the climate change impact projections simulated by the Integrated Biosphere Simulator dynamic global vegetation model. While 46% forest grid points show high, very high, or extremely high vulnerability under future climate in the short term (2030s) under both representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5, such grid points are 49 and 54%, respectively, in the long term (2080s). Generally, forests in the higher rainfall zones show lower vulnerability as compared to drier forests under future climate. Minimizing anthropogenic disturbance and conserving biodiversity can potentially reduce forest vulnerability under climate change. For disturbed forests and plantations, adaptive management aimed at forest restoration is necessary to build long-term resilience.

  9. Vulnerability of Forests in India: A National Scale Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sharma, Jagmohan; Upgupta, Sujata; Jayaraman, Mathangi; Chaturvedi, Rajiv Kumar; Bala, Govindswamy; Ravindranath, N. H.

    2017-09-01

    Forests are subjected to stress from climatic and non-climatic sources. In this study, we have reported the results of inherent, as well as climate change driven vulnerability assessments for Indian forests. To assess inherent vulnerability of forests under current climate, we have used four indicators, namely biological richness, disturbance index, canopy cover, and slope. The assessment is presented as spatial profile of inherent vulnerability in low, medium, high and very high vulnerability classes. Fourty percent forest grid points in India show high or very high inherent vulnerability. Plantation forests show higher inherent vulnerability than natural forests. We assess the climate change driven vulnerability by combining the results of inherent vulnerability assessment with the climate change impact projections simulated by the Integrated Biosphere Simulator dynamic global vegetation model. While 46% forest grid points show high, very high, or extremely high vulnerability under future climate in the short term (2030s) under both representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5, such grid points are 49 and 54%, respectively, in the long term (2080s). Generally, forests in the higher rainfall zones show lower vulnerability as compared to drier forests under future climate. Minimizing anthropogenic disturbance and conserving biodiversity can potentially reduce forest vulnerability under climate change. For disturbed forests and plantations, adaptive management aimed at forest restoration is necessary to build long-term resilience.

  10. Estimating the carbon budget and maximizing future carbon uptake for a temperate forest region in the U.S.

    Treesearch

    Scott D. Peckham; Stith T. Gower; Joseph Buongiorno

    2012-01-01

    Forests of the Midwest U.S. provide numerous ecosystem services. Two of these, carbon sequestration and wood production, are often portrayed as conflicting. Currently, carbon management and biofuel policies are being developed to reduce atmospheric CO2 and national dependence on foreign oil, and increase carbon storage in ecosystems. However, the biological and...

  11. Visual resource inventory and Imnaha Valley study: Hells Canyon National Recreation Area

    Treesearch

    David H. Blau; Michael C. Bowie; Frank Hunsaker

    1979-01-01

    Hells Canyon National Recreation Area was established by an Act of Congress in December 1975. At that time, the U.S. Forest Service, which administers most of the land included, was given the responsibility of developing a Comprehensive Management Plan for the NRA within five years. In order to minimize future visual degradation, the Forest Service planning team for...

  12. Productivity of a mature Douglas-fir stand.

    Treesearch

    Carl M. Berntsen

    1960-01-01

    Records from a mature Douglas-fir stand on the Mount Hood National Forest in northwestern Oregon indicate that very high rates of gross growth are maintained up to ages as high as 250 years. Where such stands are held in reserve for future clear cutting, forest managers have an opportunity to recapture a large share of this gross production by salvaging mortality at...

  13. Management of hardwood forests in the mid-Atlantic region: past, present, and future

    Treesearch

    David A. Marquis

    1991-01-01

    Hardwood forests of the Mid-Atlantic region have a multitude of values. They provide timber for furniture, paper, and other products, habitats for wildlife, water for homes and industry, and opportunities for outdoor recreation activities of many types. They dominate much of our landscape, serve as reservoirs of biological diversity, alter climate, and affect our lives...

  14. Biotic resistance to exotic invasions: its role in forest ecosystems, confounding artifacts, and future directions

    Treesearch

    Gabriela C. Nunez-Mir; Andrew M. Liebhold; Qinfeng Guo; Eckehard G. Brockerhoff; Insu Jo; Kimberly Ordonez; Songlin Fei

    2017-01-01

    Biotic resistance, the ability of communities to resist exotic invasions, has long attracted interest in the research and management communities. However, inconsistencies exist in various biotic resistance studies and less is known about the current status and knowledge gaps of biotic resistance in forest ecosystems. In this paper, we provide a brief review of the...

  15. Current challenges and realities for forest-based businesses adjacent to public lands in the United States

    Treesearch

    Emily J. Davis; Jesse Abrams; Eric M. White; Cassandra Moseley

    2018-01-01

    Through contracting and timber sales, the private sector is engaged in management of national forest lands and local community economies in the United States. But there is little recent research about current relationships between these lands and timber purchasers that could better inform future timber and biomass sale and business assistance policies and programs. We...

  16. Development of an ecological classification system for the Cooper Creek watershed of the Chattahoochee National Forest: a first approximation

    Treesearch

    W. Henry McNab; Ronald B. Stephens; Erika M. Mavity; Joanne E. Baggs; James M. Wentworth; Richard D. Rightmyer; Alex J. Jaume; Brian D. Jackson; Michael P. Joyce

    2015-01-01

    The 2004 management plan for the Chattahoochee National Forest states that many future resource objectives and goals have an ecological basis. Assessment of resource needs in the Cooper Creek watershed area of the southern Appalachian Mountains of north Georgia were identified with awareness of ecological constraints and suitability. An interdisciplinary team of...

  17. Past, present, and future role of silviculture in forest management

    Treesearch

    Russell T. Graham; Theresa Benavidez Jain

    2004-01-01

    In general, silviculture can be defined as the art and science of controlling the establishment, growth, competition, health, and quality of forests and woodlands to meet the diverse needs and values of landowners and society on a sustainable basis (Helms 1998). This definition or variations of it have existed since the late 1800s. Gifford (1902), an Assistant...

  18. The history and future of methyl bromide alternatives in the southern United States

    Treesearch

    Tom E. Starkey

    2012-01-01

    This article gives a brief history of the efforts of the Southern Forest Nursery Management Cooperative (SFNMC) in testing methyl bromide (MBr) alternatives for soil fumigation. In the southeastern United States, fumigation with MBr has been the most commonly used method for producing high quality, pest-free forest seedlings in an environment that is conducive for soil...

  19. Integration of population genetic structure and plant response to climate change: sustaining genetic resources through evaluation of projected threats

    Treesearch

    Bryce A. Richardson; Marcus V. Warwell; Mee-Sook Kim; Ned B. Klopfenstein; Geral I. McDonald

    2010-01-01

    To assess threats or predict responses to disturbances, or both, it is essential to recognize and characterize the population structures of forest species in relation to changing environments. Appropriate management of these genetic resources in the future will require (1) understanding the existing genetic diversity/variation and population structure of forest trees...

  20. Effect of differential forest management on land-use change (LUC) in a tropical hill forest of Malaysia.

    PubMed

    Masum, Kazi Mohammad; Mansor, Asyraf; Sah, Shahrul Anuar Mohd; Lim, Hwee San

    2017-09-15

    Forest ownership is considered as a vital aspect for sustainable management of forest and its associated biodiversity. The Global Forest Resources Assessment 2015 reported that privately owned forest area are increasing on a global scale, but deforestation was found very active in privately owned hill forest areas of Malaysia. Penang State was purposively chosen as it has been experiencing rapid and radical changes due to urban expansion over the last three decades. In this study, analyses of land-use changes were done by PCI Geomatica using Landsat images from 1991 to 2015, future trends of land-use change were assessed using EXCEL forecast function, and its impact on the surrounding environment were conducted by reviewing already published articles on changing environment of the study area. This study revealed an annual deforestation rate of 1.4% in Penang Island since 1991. Trend analysis forecasted a forest area smaller than the current forest reserves by the year 2039. Impact analysis revealed a rapid biodiversity loss with increasing landslides, mudflows, water pollution, flash flood, and health hazard. An immediate ban over hill-land development is crucial for overall environmental safety. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Challenges for tree officers to enhance the provision of regulating ecosystem services from urban forests.

    PubMed

    Davies, Helen J; Doick, Kieron J; Hudson, Malcolm D; Schreckenberg, Kate

    2017-07-01

    Urbanisation and a changing climate are leading to more frequent and severe flood, heat and air pollution episodes in Britain's cities. Interest in nature-based solutions to these urban problems is growing, with urban forests potentially able to provide a range of regulating ecosystem services such as stormwater attenuation, heat amelioration and air purification. The extent to which these benefits are realized is largely dependent on urban forest management objectives, the availability of funding, and the understanding of ecosystem service concepts within local governments, the primary delivery agents of urban forests. This study aims to establish the extent to which British local authorities actively manage their urban forests for regulating ecosystem services, and identify which resources local authorities most need in order to enhance provision of ecosystem services by Britain's urban forests. Interviews were carried out with staff responsible for tree management decisions in fifteen major local authorities from across Britain, selected on the basis of their urban nature and high population density. Local authorities have a reactive approach to urban forest management, driven by human health and safety concerns and complaints about tree disservices. There is relatively little focus on ensuring provision of regulating ecosystem services, despite awareness by tree officers of the key role that urban forests can play in alleviating chronic air pollution, flood risk and urban heat anomalies. However, this is expected to become a greater focus in future provided that existing constraints - lack of understanding of ecosystem services amongst key stakeholders, limited political support, funding constraints - can be overcome. Our findings suggest that the adoption of a proactive urban forest strategy, underpinned by quantified and valued urban forest-based ecosystem services provision data, and innovative private sector funding mechanisms, can facilitate a change to a proactive, ecosystem services approach to urban forest management. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  2. Climate change adaptation planning for the Skeena region of British Columbia, Canada: A combined biophysical modelling, social science, and community engagement approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Melton, J. R.; Kaplan, J. O.; Matthews, R.; Sydneysmith, R.; Tesluk, J.; Piggot, G.; Robinson, D. C.; Brinkman, D.; Marmorek, D.; Cohen, S.; McPherson, K.

    2011-12-01

    The Skeena region of British Columbia, Canada is among the world's most important commercial forest production areas, a key transportation corridor, and provides critical habitat for salmon and other wildlife. Climate change compounds threats to the region from other local environmental and social challenges. To aid local communities in adaptive planning for future climate change impacts, our project combined biophysical modelling, social science, and community engagement in a participatory approach to build regional capacity to prepare and respond to climate change. The sociological aspect of our study interviewed local leaders and resource managers (both First Nations and settlers groups in three communities) to examine how perceptions of environmental and socioeconomic issues have changed in the recent past, and the values placed on diverse natural resources at the present. The three communities differed in their perception of the relative value and condition of community resources, such as small business, natural resource trade, education and local government. However, all three communities regarded salmon as their most important and threatened resource. The most important future drivers of change in the study region were perceived to be: "aboriginal rights, title and treaty settlements", "availability of natural resources", "natural resource policies", and the "global economy". Climate change, as a potential driver of change in the region, was perceived as less important than other socio-economic factors; even though climate records for the region already demonstrate warmer winters, decreased snowfall, and decreased spring precipitation over the last half century. The natural science component of our project applies a regional-scale dynamic vegetation model (LPJ-GUESS) to simulate the potential future of forest ecosystems, with a focus on how climate change and management strategy interact to influence forest productivity, disturbance frequency, species composition, and carbon storage. LPJ-GUESS was parameterized for 19 tree species and driven by a suite of downscaled projected GCM climate scenarios and an optional forest management scenario at a ~1km spatial resolution over the entire ca. 32,000 km2 study area. Preliminary results show the greatest impacts on hydrology rather than forest productivity or carbon cycling. However, even small changes in forest composition, shrinking of the alpine tundra zones, and forest management for optimal productivity, along with ongoing climate change, could increase impacts on hydrology, ultimately affecting fisheries and other valuable natural resources. These modelling results will be presented to the Skeena communities in a second round of interviews to determine if these results alter residents' views on the importance of climate change to the future of their region.

  3. Climate change and European forests: what do we know, what are the uncertainties, and what are the implications for forest management?

    PubMed

    Lindner, Marcus; Fitzgerald, Joanne B; Zimmermann, Niklaus E; Reyer, Christopher; Delzon, Sylvain; van der Maaten, Ernst; Schelhaas, Mart-Jan; Lasch, Petra; Eggers, Jeannette; van der Maaten-Theunissen, Marieke; Suckow, Felicitas; Psomas, Achilleas; Poulter, Benjamin; Hanewinkel, Marc

    2014-12-15

    The knowledge about potential climate change impacts on forests is continuously expanding and some changes in growth, drought induced mortality and species distribution have been observed. However despite a significant body of research, a knowledge and communication gap exists between scientists and non-scientists as to how climate change impact scenarios can be interpreted and what they imply for European forests. It is still challenging to advise forest decision makers on how best to plan for climate change as many uncertainties and unknowns remain and it is difficult to communicate these to practitioners and other decision makers while retaining emphasis on the importance of planning for adaptation. In this paper, recent developments in climate change observations and projections, observed and projected impacts on European forests and the associated uncertainties are reviewed and synthesised with a view to understanding the implications for forest management. Current impact assessments with simulation models contain several simplifications, which explain the discrepancy between results of many simulation studies and the rapidly increasing body of evidence about already observed changes in forest productivity and species distribution. In simulation models uncertainties tend to cascade onto one another; from estimating what future societies will be like and general circulation models (GCMs) at the global level, down to forest models and forest management at the local level. Individual climate change impact studies should not be uncritically used for decision-making without reflection on possible shortcomings in system understanding, model accuracy and other assumptions made. It is important for decision makers in forest management to realise that they have to take long-lasting management decisions while uncertainty about climate change impacts are still large. We discuss how to communicate about uncertainty - which is imperative for decision making - without diluting the overall message. Considering the range of possible trends and uncertainties in adaptive forest management requires expert knowledge and enhanced efforts for providing science-based decision support. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Trade-off between light availability and soil fertility determine refugial conditions for the relict light-demanding species in lowland forests

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kiedrzyński, Marcin; Kurowski, Józef Krzysztof; Kiedrzyńska, Edyta

    2017-11-01

    Identifying potential refugial habitats in the face of rapid environmental change is a challenge faced by scientists and nature conservation managers. Relict populations and refugial habitats are the model objects in those studies. Based on the example of Actaea europaea from Central Poland, we analyse the habitat factors influencing relict populations of continental, light-demanding species in lowland forests and examine which habitats of studied species corresponding most closely to ancient vegetation. Our results indicate that the current refugial habitats of Actaea europaea include not only communities which are very similar to ancient open forest but also forests with a closed canopy. Although the populations are influenced by nitrogen and light availability, the co-occurrence of these two factors in forest communities is limited by dense canopy formation by hornbeam and beech trees on fertile soils and in more humid conditions. Our findings indicate that the future survival of relict, light-demanding communities in lowland forests requires low-intensity disturbances to be performed in tree-stands, according to techniques, which imitate traditional forests management.

  5. Integrated management of timber and deer: interior forests of western North America.

    Treesearch

    H.M. Armleder; D.A. Leckenby; D.J. Freddy; L.L. Hicks

    1989-01-01

    Timber and deer managers have struggled through years of increasing demands and growing conflicts in the interior of Western North America. Integrated management, supported by a sound research data base and effectively communicated to all users, is presented as the only viable approach to an increasingly complex resource future. Two examples of tools recently designed...

  6. Assess and Adapt: Coordinated Ecoregional Forest Vulnerability Assessments Covering the Upper Midwest and Northeast in Support of Climate-informed Decision-making

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Swanston, C.; Janowiak, M.; Handler, S.; Butler, P.; Brandt, L.; Iverson, L.; Thompson, F.; Ontl, T.; Shannon, D.

    2016-12-01

    Forest ecosystem vulnerability assessments are rapidly becoming an integral component of forest management planning, in which there is increasing public expectation that even near-term activities explicitly incorporate information about anticipated climate impacts and risks. There is a clear desire among forest managers for targeted assessments that address critical questions about species and ecosystem vulnerabilities while delivering this information in an accessible format. We developed the Ecosystem Vulnerability Assessment Approach (EVAA), which combines multiple quantitative models, expert elicitation from scientists and land managers, and a templated report structure oriented to natural resource managers. The report structure includes relevant information on the contemporary landscape, past climate, future climate projections, impact model results, and a transparent vulnerability assessment of species and ecosystems. We have used EVAA in seven ecoregional assessments covering 246 million acres of forestland across the upper Midwest and Northeast (www.forestadaptation.org; five published, two in review). We convened a panel of local forest ecology and management experts in each assessment area to examine projected climate effects on system drivers, stressors, and dominant species, as well as the current adaptive capacity of the major ecoregional forest ecosystems. The panels provided a qualitative assessment of the vulnerability of forest ecosystems to climate change over the next century. Over 130 authors from dozens of organizations collaborated on these peer-reviewed assessment publications, which are delivered to thousands of stakeholders through live and recorded webinars, online briefs, and in-person trainings and seminars. The assessments are designed to be used with the Adaptation Workbook (www.adaptationworkbook.org), a planning tool that works at multiple scales and has generated more than 200 real-world forest adaptation demonstration projects.

  7. Review of climate change impacts on future carbon stores and management of warm deserts of the United States

    Treesearch

    Michell L. Thomey; Paulette L. Ford; Matt C. Reeves; Deborah M. Finch; Marcy E. Litvak; Scott L. Collins

    2014-01-01

    Reducing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration through enhanced terrestrial carbon storage may help slow or reverse the rate of global climate change. As a result, Federal land management agencies, such as the U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service and U.S. Department of the Interior Bureau of Land Management, are implementing management policies to...

  8. Climate change, fire management, and ecological services in the southwestern US

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hurteau, Matthew D.; Bradford, John B.; Fulé, Peter Z.; Taylor, Alan H.; Martin, Katherine L.

    2014-01-01

    The diverse forest types of the southwestern US are inseparable from fire. Across climate zones in California, Nevada, Arizona, and New Mexico, fire suppression has left many forest types out of sync with their historic fire regimes. As a result, high fuel loads place them at risk of severe fire, particularly as fire activity increases due to climate change. A legacy of fire exclusion coupled with a warming climate has led to increasingly large and severe wildfires in many southwest forest types. Climate change projections include an extended fire season length due to earlier snowmelt and a general drying trend due to rising temperatures. This suggests the future will be warmer and drier regardless of changes in precipitation. Hotter, drier conditions are likely to increase forest flammability, at least initially. Changes in climate alone have the potential to alter the distribution of vegetation types within the region, and climate-driven shifts in vegetation distribution are likely to be accelerated when coupled with stand-replacing fire. Regardless of the rate of change, the interaction of climate and fire and their effects on Southwest ecosystems will alter the provisioning of ecosystem services, including carbon storage and biodiversity. Interactions between climate, fire, and vegetation growth provide a source of great uncertainty in projecting future fire activity in the region, as post-fire forest recovery is strongly influenced by climate and subsequent fire frequency. Severe fire can be mitigated with fuels management including prescribed fire, thinning, and wildfire management, but new strategies are needed to ensure the effectiveness of treatments across landscapes. We review the current understanding of the relationship between fire and climate in the Southwest, both historical and projected. We then discuss the potential implications of climate change for fire management and examine the potential effects of climate change and fire on ecosystem services. We conclude with an assessment of the role of fire management in an increasingly flammable Southwest.

  9. Working landscapes: the future of land use policy?

    Treesearch

    Marc Miller; Thomas E. Sheridan; Susan Charnley; Christy Plumer; Jim Lyons; Tom Martin

    2015-01-01

    The history of land use in the American West has traditionally been one of conflict, but the divisive relationships between ranchers, foresters, land management agencies, recreational users, and conservationists are transforming. Grassroots coalitions have developed among unlikely allies. Together, they are advocating for management approaches that incorporate local...

  10. Influence of forest and rangeland management on anadromous fish habitat in Western North America: effects of livestock grazing.

    Treesearch

    William S. Platts

    1981-01-01

    This paper documents current knowledge on interactions of livestock and fish habitat. Included are discussions of incompatibility and compatibility between livestock grazing and fisheries, present management guidelines, information needed for problem solving, information available for problem solving, and future research needs.

  11. Spatially dynamic forest management to sustain biodiversity and economic returns.

    PubMed

    Mönkkönen, Mikko; Juutinen, Artti; Mazziotta, Adriano; Miettinen, Kaisa; Podkopaev, Dmitry; Reunanen, Pasi; Salminen, Hannu; Tikkanen, Olli-Pekka

    2014-02-15

    Production of marketed commodities and protection of biodiversity in natural systems often conflict and thus the continuously expanding human needs for more goods and benefits from global ecosystems urgently calls for strategies to resolve this conflict. In this paper, we addressed what is the potential of a forest landscape to simultaneously produce habitats for species and economic returns, and how the conflict between habitat availability and timber production varies among taxa. Secondly, we aimed at revealing an optimal combination of management regimes that maximizes habitat availability for given levels of economic returns. We used multi-objective optimization tools to analyze data from a boreal forest landscape consisting of about 30,000 forest stands simulated 50 years into future. We included seven alternative management regimes, spanning from the recommended intensive forest management regime to complete set-aside of stands (protection), and ten different taxa representing a wide variety of habitat associations and social values. Our results demonstrate it is possible to achieve large improvements in habitat availability with little loss in economic returns. In general, providing dead-wood associated species with more habitats tended to be more expensive than providing requirements for other species. No management regime alone maximized habitat availability for the species, and systematic use of any single management regime resulted in considerable reductions in economic returns. Compared with an optimal combination of management regimes, a consistent application of the recommended management regime would result in 5% reduction in economic returns and up to 270% reduction in habitat availability. Thus, for all taxa a combination of management regimes was required to achieve the optimum. Refraining from silvicultural thinnings on a proportion of stands should be considered as a cost-effective management in commercial forests to reconcile the conflict between economic returns and habitat required by species associated with dead-wood. In general, a viable strategy to maintain biodiversity in production landscapes would be to diversify management regimes. Our results emphasize the importance of careful landscape level forest management planning because optimal combinations of management regimes were taxon-specific. For cost-efficiency, the results call for balanced and correctly targeted strategies among habitat types. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Management to conserve forest ecosystems

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Robbins, C.S.; McComb, William C.

    1984-01-01

    Historically, management of forests for wildlife has emphasized creation of openings and provision for a maximum of edge habitats. Wildlife managers have believed, quite logically, that increased sunlight enhances productivity among plants and insects, resulting in greater use by game animals and other wildlife. Recent studies comparing breeding bird populations of extensive forests with those of isolated woodlots have shown that the smaller woodlots, especially those under 35 ha (about 85 acres), lack many species that are typical of the larger tracts. The missing species can be predicted, and basically are the neotropical migrants. These long-distance migrants share several characteristics that make them especially vulnerable to reproductive failure in situations where predation and cowbird parasitism are high: they are primarily single-brooded, open nesters that lay small clutches on or near the ground. Edge habitats and forest openings attract cowbirds and predators. The edge species of birds, which are mostly permanent residents or short-distance migrants, are well adapted to survive and reproduce in small isolated woodlands without the benefit of special habitat management. The obligate forest interior species, on the other hand, are decreasing in those parts of North America where extensive forests are being replaced by isolated woodlands. If we are to preserve ecosystems intact for the benefit of future generations, and maintain a viable gene pool for the scarcer species, we must think in terms of retaining large, unbroken tracts of forest and of limiting disturbance in the more remote portions of these tracts.

  13. Carbon Storages in Plantation Ecosystems in Sand Source Areas of North Beijing, China

    PubMed Central

    Liu, Xiuping; Zhang, Wanjun; Cao, Jiansheng; Shen, Huitao; Zeng, Xinhua; Yu, Zhiqiang; Zhao, Xin

    2013-01-01

    Afforestation is a mitigation option to reduce the increased atmospheric carbon dioxide levels as well as the predicted high possibility of climate change. In this paper, vegetation survey data, statistical database, National Forest Resource Inventory database, and allometric equations were used to estimate carbon density (carbon mass per hectare) and carbon storage, and identify the size and spatial distribution of forest carbon sinks in plantation ecosystems in sand source areas of north Beijing, China. From 2001 to the end of 2010, the forest areas increased more than 2.3 million ha, and total carbon storage in forest ecosystems was 173.02 Tg C, of which 82.80 percent was contained in soil in the top 0–100 cm layer. Younger forests have a large potential for enhancing carbon sequestration in terrestrial ecosystems than older ones. Regarding future afforestation efforts, it will be more effective to increase forest area and vegetation carbon density through selection of appropriate tree species and stand structure according to local climate and soil conditions, and application of proper forest management including land-shaping, artificial tending and fencing plantations. It would be also important to protect the organic carbon in surface soils during forest management. PMID:24349223

  14. Toward a social-ecological theory of forest macrosystems for improved ecosystem management

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kleindl, William J.; Stoy, Paul C.; Binford, Michael W.; Desai, Ankur R.; Dietze, Michael C.; Schultz, Courtney A.; Starr, Gregory; Staudhammer, Christina; Wood, David J. A.

    2018-01-01

    The implications of cumulative land-use decisions and shifting climate on forests, require us to integrate our understanding of ecosystems, markets, policy, and resource management into a social-ecological system. Humans play a central role in macrosystem dynamics, which complicates ecological theories that do not explicitly include human interactions. These dynamics also impact ecological services and related markets, which challenges economic theory. Here, we use two forest macroscale management initiatives to develop a theoretical understanding of how management interacts with ecological functions and services at these scales and how the multiple large-scale management goals work either in consort or conflict with other forest functions and services. We suggest that calling upon theories developed for organismal ecology, ecosystem ecology, and ecological economics adds to our understanding of social-ecological macrosystems. To initiate progress, we propose future research questions to add rigor to macrosystem-scale studies: (1) What are the ecosystem functions that operate at macroscales, their necessary structural components, and how do we observe them? (2) How do systems at one scale respond if altered at another scale? (3) How do we both effectively measure these components and interactions, and communicate that information in a meaningful manner for policy and management across different scales?

  15. i-Tree: Tools to assess and manage structure, function, and value of community forests

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hirabayashi, S.; Nowak, D.; Endreny, T. A.; Kroll, C.; Maco, S.

    2011-12-01

    Trees in urban communities can mitigate many adverse effects associated with anthropogenic activities and climate change (e.g. urban heat island, greenhouse gas, air pollution, and floods). To protect environmental and human health, managers need to make informed decisions regarding urban forest management practices. Here we present the i-Tree suite of software tools (www.itreetools.org) developed by the USDA Forest Service and their cooperators. This software suite can help urban forest managers assess and manage the structure, function, and value of urban tree populations regardless of community size or technical capacity. i-Tree is a state-of-the-art, peer-reviewed Windows GUI- or Web-based software that is freely available, supported, and continuously refined by the USDA Forest Service and their cooperators. Two major features of i-Tree are 1) to analyze current canopy structures and identify potential planting spots, and 2) to estimate the environmental benefits provided by the trees, such as carbon storage and sequestration, energy conservation, air pollution removal, and storm water reduction. To cover diverse forest topologies, various tools were developed within the i-Tree suite: i-Tree Design for points (individual trees), i-Tree Streets for lines (street trees), and i-Tree Eco, Vue, and Canopy (in the order of complexity) for areas (community trees). Once the forest structure is identified with these tools, ecosystem services provided by trees can be estimated with common models and protocols, and reports in the form of texts, charts, and figures are then created for users. Since i-Tree was developed with a client/server architecture, nationwide data in the US such as location-related parameters, weather, streamflow, and air pollution data are stored in the server and retrieved to a user's computer at run-time. Freely available remote-sensed images (e.g. NLCD and Google maps) are also employed to estimate tree canopy characteristics. As the demand for i-Tree grows internationally, environmental databases from more countries will be coupled with the software suite. Two more i-Tree applications, i-Tree Forecast and i-Tree Landscape are now under development. i-Tree Forecast simulates canopy structures for up to 100 years based on planting and mortality rates and adds capabilities for other i-Tree applications to estimate the benefits of future canopy scenarios. While most i-Tree applications employ a spatially lumped approach, i-Tree landscape employs a spatially distributed approach that allows users to map changes in canopy cover and ecosystem services through time and space. These new i-Tree tools provide an advanced platform for urban managers to assess the impact of current and future urban forests. i-Tree allows managers to promote effective urban forest management and sound arboricultural practices by providing information for advocacy and planning, baseline data for making informed decisions, and standardization for comparisons with other communities.

  16. A comparison of selected parametric and non-parametric imputation methods for estimating forest biomass and basal area

    Treesearch

    Donald Gagliasso; Susan Hummel; Hailemariam Temesgen

    2014-01-01

    Various methods have been used to estimate the amount of above ground forest biomass across landscapes and to create biomass maps for specific stands or pixels across ownership or project areas. Without an accurate estimation method, land managers might end up with incorrect biomass estimate maps, which could lead them to make poorer decisions in their future...

  17. Projections of timber harvest in western Oregon and Washington by county, owner, forest type, and age class.

    Treesearch

    Xiaoping Zhou; Richard W. Haynes; R. James. Barbour

    2005-01-01

    The Pacific Northwest forest resource is highly dynamic. Expected changes over the next 50 years will greatly challenge some current perceptions of resource managers and various stakeholders. This report describes the current and expected future timberland conditions of western Oregon and Washington and presents the results at the county level. About 50 percent of the...

  18. Soil C and N minimum detectable changes and treatment differences in a multi-treatment forest experiment.

    Treesearch

    P.S. Homann; B.T. Bormann; J.R. Boyle; R.L. Darbyshire; R. Bigley

    2008-01-01

    Detecting changes in forest soil C and N is vital to the study of global budgets and long-term ecosystem productivity. Identifying differences among land-use practices may guide future management. Our objective was to determine the relation of minimum detectable changes (MDCs) and minimum detectable differences between treatments (MDDs) to soil C and N variability at...

  19. Inferences from growing trees backwards

    Treesearch

    David W. Green; Kent A. McDonald

    1997-01-01

    The objective of this paper is to illustrate how longitudinal stress wave techniques can be useful in tracking the future quality of a growing tree. Monitoring the quality of selected trees in a plantation forest could provide early input to decisions on the effectiveness of management practices, or future utilization options, for trees in a plantation. There will...

  20. Modeling potential outcomes of fire and fuel management scenarios on the structure of forested habitats in northeast Oregon, USA.

    Treesearch

    B.C. Wales; L.H. Suring; M.A. Hemstrom

    2007-01-01

    Thinning and prescribed fire are being used extensively across the interior Western United States to reduce the risk of large, severe wildfires. However, the full ecological consequences of implementing these management practices on the landscape have not been completely evaluated. We projected future vegetation trends resulting from four management scenarios and...

  1. Conserving and managing the trees of the future: genetic resources for Pacific Northwest forests.

    Treesearch

    Sally Duncan

    2003-01-01

    Genetic resource management has historically called for altering the genetic structure of plant populations through selection for traits of interest such as rapid growth. Although this is still a principal component of tree breeding programs in the Pacific Northwest, managing genetic resources now also brings a clear focus on retaining a broad diversity within and...

  2. In the eye of the stakeholder: The challenges of governing social forest values.

    PubMed

    Sténs, Anna; Bjärstig, Therese; Nordström, Eva-Maria; Sandström, Camilla; Fries, Clas; Johansson, Johanna

    2016-02-01

    This study examines which kinds of social benefits derived from forests are emphasised by Swedish stakeholders and what governance modes and management tools they accept. Our study shows that there exists a great variety among stakeholders' perceptions of forests' social values, where tourism and recreation is the most common reference. There are also differences in preferred governance modes and management where biomass and bioenergy sectors advocate business as usual (i.e. framework regulations and voluntarism) and other stakeholders demand rigid tools (i.e. coercion and targeting) and improved landscape planning. This divide will have implications for future policy orientations and require deliberative policy processes and improved dialogue among stakeholders and authorities. We suggest that there is a potential for these improvements, since actors from almost all stakeholder groups support local influence on governance and management, acknowledged and maintained either by the authorities, i.e. targeting, or by the stakeholders themselves, i.e. voluntarism.

  3. The effects of future nationwide forest transition to discharge in the 21st century with regard to general circulation model climate change scenarios.

    PubMed

    Mouri, Goro; Nakano, Katsuhiro; Tsuyama, Ikutaro; Tanaka, Nobuyuki

    2016-08-01

    Forest disturbance (or land-cover change) and climatic variability are commonly recognised as two major drivers interactively influencing hydrology in forested watersheds. Future climate changes and corresponding changes in forest type and distribution are expected to generate changes in rainfall runoff that pose a threat to river catchments. It is therefore important to understand how future climate changes will effect average rainfall distribution and temperature and what effect this will have upon forest types across Japan. Recent deforestation of the present-day coniferous forest and expected increases in evergreen forest are shown to influence runoff processes and, therefore, to influence future runoff conditions. We strongly recommend that variations in forest type be considered in future plans to ameliorate projected climate changes. This will help to improve water retention and storage capacities, enhance the flood protection function of forests, and improve human health. We qualitatively assessed future changes in runoff including the effects of variation in forest type across Japan. Four general circulation models (GCMs) were selected from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble to provide the driving fields: the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC), the Meteorological Research Institute Atmospheric General Circulation Model (MRI-GCM), the Hadley Centre Global Environment Model (HadGEM), and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) climate model. The simulations consisted of an ensemble including multiple physics configurations and different reference concentration pathways (RCP2.6, 4.5, and 8.5), the results of which have produced monthly data sets for the whole of Japan. The impacts of future climate changes on forest type in Japan are based on the balance amongst changes in rainfall distribution, temperature and hydrological factors. Methods for assessing the impact of such changes include the Catchment Simulator modelling frameworks based on the Minimal Advanced Treatments of Surface Interaction and Runoff (MATSIRO) model, which was expanded to estimate discharge by incorporating the effects of forest-type transition across the whole of Japan. The results indicated that, by the 2090s, annual runoff will increase above present-day values. Increases in annual variation in runoff by the 2090s was predicted to be around 14.1% when using the MRI-GCM data and 44.4% when using the HadGEM data. Analysis by long-term projection showed the largest increases in runoff in the 2090s were related to the type of forest, such as evergreen. Increased runoff can have negative effects on both society and the environment, including increased flooding events, worsened water quality, habitat destruction and changes to the forest moisture-retaining function. Prediction of the impacts of future climate change on water generation is crucial for effective environmental planning and management. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Climate change and forests of the future: Managing in the face of uncertainty

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Millar, C.I.; Stephenson, N.L.; Stephens, S.L.

    2007-01-01

    We offer a conceptual framework for managing forested ecosystems under an assumption that future environments will be different from present but that we cannot be certain about the specifics of change. We encourage flexible approaches that promote reversible and incremental steps, and that favor ongoing learning and capacity to modify direction as situations change. We suggest that no single solution fits all future challenges, especially in the context of changing climates, and that the best strategy is to mix different approaches for different situations. Resources managers will be challenged to integrate adaptation strategies (actions that help ecosystems accommodate changes adaptively) and mitigation strategies (actions that enable ecosystems to reduce anthropogenic influences on global climate) into overall plans. Adaptive strategies include resistance options (forestall impacts and protect highly valued resources), resilience options (improve the capacity of ecosystems to return to desired conditions after disturbance), and response options (facilitate transition of ecosystems from current to new conditions). Mitigation strategies include options to sequester carbon and reduce overall greenhouse gas emissions. Priority-setting approaches (e.g., triage), appropriate for rapidly changing conditions and for situations where needs are greater than available capacity to respond, will become increasingly important in the future. ?? 2007 by the Ecological Society of America.

  5. Novel and Lost Forests in the Upper Midwestern United States, from New Estimates of Settlement-Era Composition, Stem Density, and Biomass

    PubMed Central

    Mladenoff, David J.; Cogbill, Charles V.; Record, Sydne; Paciorek, Christopher J.; Jackson, Stephen T.; Dietze, Michael C.; Dawson, Andria; Matthes, Jaclyn Hatala; McLachlan, Jason S.; Williams, John W.

    2016-01-01

    Background EuroAmerican land-use and its legacies have transformed forest structure and composition across the United States (US). More accurate reconstructions of historical states are critical to understanding the processes governing past, current, and future forest dynamics. Here we present new gridded (8x8km) reconstructions of pre-settlement (1800s) forest composition and structure from the upper Midwestern US (Minnesota, Wisconsin, and most of Michigan), using 19th Century Public Land Survey System (PLSS), with estimates of relative composition, above-ground biomass, stem density, and basal area for 28 tree types. This mapping is more robust than past efforts, using spatially varying correction factors to accommodate sampling design, azimuthal censoring, and biases in tree selection. Changes in Forest Structure We compare pre-settlement to modern forests using US Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) data to show the prevalence of lost forests (pre-settlement forests with no current analog), and novel forests (modern forests with no past analogs). Differences between pre-settlement and modern forests are spatially structured owing to differences in land-use impacts and accompanying ecological responses. Modern forests are more homogeneous, and ecotonal gradients are more diffuse today than in the past. Novel forest assemblages represent 28% of all FIA cells, and 28% of pre-settlement forests no longer exist in a modern context. Lost forests include tamarack forests in northeastern Minnesota, hemlock and cedar dominated forests in north-central Wisconsin and along the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, and elm, oak, basswood and ironwood forests along the forest-prairie boundary in south central Minnesota and eastern Wisconsin. Novel FIA forest assemblages are distributed evenly across the region, but novelty shows a strong relationship to spatial distance from remnant forests in the upper Midwest, with novelty predicted at between 20 to 60km from remnants, depending on historical forest type. The spatial relationships between remnant and novel forests, shifts in ecotone structure and the loss of historic forest types point to significant challenges for land managers if landscape restoration is a priority. The spatial signals of novelty and ecological change also point to potential challenges in using modern spatial distributions of species and communities and their relationship to underlying geophysical and climatic attributes in understanding potential responses to changing climate. The signal of human settlement on modern forests is broad, spatially varying and acts to homogenize modern forests relative to their historic counterparts, with significant implications for future management. PMID:27935944

  6. An optimal proportion of mixing broad-leaved forest for enhancing the effective productivity of moso bamboo.

    PubMed

    Cheng, Xiao-Fei; Shi, Pei-Jian; Hui, Cang; Wang, Fu-Sheng; Liu, Guo-Hua; Li, Bai-Lian

    2015-04-01

    Moso bamboos (Phyllostachys edulis) are important forestry plants in southern China, with substantial roles to play in regional economic and ecological systems. Mixing broad-leaved forests and moso bamboos is a common management practice in China, and it is fundamental to elucidate the interactions between broad-leaved trees and moso bamboos for ensuring the sustainable provision of ecosystem services. We examine how the proportion of broad-leaved forest in a mixed managed zone, topology, and soil profile affects the effective productivity of moso bamboos (i.e., those with significant economic value), using linear regression and generalized additive models. Bamboo's diameter at breast height follows a Weibull distribution. The importance of these variables to bamboo productivity is, respectively, slope (25.9%), the proportion of broad-leaved forest (24.8%), elevation (23.3%), gravel content by volume (16.6%), slope location (8.3%), and soil layer thickness (1.2%). Highest productivity is found on the 25° slope, with a 600-m elevation, and 30% broad-leaved forest. As such, broad-leaved forest in the upper slope can have a strong influence on the effective productivity of moso bamboo, ranking only after slope and before elevation. These factors can be considered in future management practice.

  7. Novel and Lost Forests in the Upper Midwestern United States, from New Estimates of Settlement-Era Composition, Stem Density, and Biomass.

    PubMed

    Goring, Simon J; Mladenoff, David J; Cogbill, Charles V; Record, Sydne; Paciorek, Christopher J; Jackson, Stephen T; Dietze, Michael C; Dawson, Andria; Matthes, Jaclyn Hatala; McLachlan, Jason S; Williams, John W

    2016-01-01

    EuroAmerican land-use and its legacies have transformed forest structure and composition across the United States (US). More accurate reconstructions of historical states are critical to understanding the processes governing past, current, and future forest dynamics. Here we present new gridded (8x8km) reconstructions of pre-settlement (1800s) forest composition and structure from the upper Midwestern US (Minnesota, Wisconsin, and most of Michigan), using 19th Century Public Land Survey System (PLSS), with estimates of relative composition, above-ground biomass, stem density, and basal area for 28 tree types. This mapping is more robust than past efforts, using spatially varying correction factors to accommodate sampling design, azimuthal censoring, and biases in tree selection. We compare pre-settlement to modern forests using US Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) data to show the prevalence of lost forests (pre-settlement forests with no current analog), and novel forests (modern forests with no past analogs). Differences between pre-settlement and modern forests are spatially structured owing to differences in land-use impacts and accompanying ecological responses. Modern forests are more homogeneous, and ecotonal gradients are more diffuse today than in the past. Novel forest assemblages represent 28% of all FIA cells, and 28% of pre-settlement forests no longer exist in a modern context. Lost forests include tamarack forests in northeastern Minnesota, hemlock and cedar dominated forests in north-central Wisconsin and along the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, and elm, oak, basswood and ironwood forests along the forest-prairie boundary in south central Minnesota and eastern Wisconsin. Novel FIA forest assemblages are distributed evenly across the region, but novelty shows a strong relationship to spatial distance from remnant forests in the upper Midwest, with novelty predicted at between 20 to 60km from remnants, depending on historical forest type. The spatial relationships between remnant and novel forests, shifts in ecotone structure and the loss of historic forest types point to significant challenges for land managers if landscape restoration is a priority. The spatial signals of novelty and ecological change also point to potential challenges in using modern spatial distributions of species and communities and their relationship to underlying geophysical and climatic attributes in understanding potential responses to changing climate. The signal of human settlement on modern forests is broad, spatially varying and acts to homogenize modern forests relative to their historic counterparts, with significant implications for future management.

  8. Global environmental change effects on plant community composition trajectories depend upon management legacies.

    PubMed

    Perring, Michael P; Bernhardt-Römermann, Markus; Baeten, Lander; Midolo, Gabriele; Blondeel, Haben; Depauw, Leen; Landuyt, Dries; Maes, Sybryn L; De Lombaerde, Emiel; Carón, Maria Mercedes; Vellend, Mark; Brunet, Jörg; Chudomelová, Markéta; Decocq, Guillaume; Diekmann, Martin; Dirnböck, Thomas; Dörfler, Inken; Durak, Tomasz; De Frenne, Pieter; Gilliam, Frank S; Hédl, Radim; Heinken, Thilo; Hommel, Patrick; Jaroszewicz, Bogdan; Kirby, Keith J; Kopecký, Martin; Lenoir, Jonathan; Li, Daijiang; Máliš, František; Mitchell, Fraser J G; Naaf, Tobias; Newman, Miles; Petřík, Petr; Reczyńska, Kamila; Schmidt, Wolfgang; Standovár, Tibor; Świerkosz, Krzysztof; Van Calster, Hans; Vild, Ondřej; Wagner, Eva Rosa; Wulf, Monika; Verheyen, Kris

    2018-04-01

    The contemporary state of functional traits and species richness in plant communities depends on legacy effects of past disturbances. Whether temporal responses of community properties to current environmental changes are altered by such legacies is, however, unknown. We expect global environmental changes to interact with land-use legacies given different community trajectories initiated by prior management, and subsequent responses to altered resources and conditions. We tested this expectation for species richness and functional traits using 1814 survey-resurvey plot pairs of understorey communities from 40 European temperate forest datasets, syntheses of management transitions since the year 1800, and a trait database. We also examined how plant community indicators of resources and conditions changed in response to management legacies and environmental change. Community trajectories were clearly influenced by interactions between management legacies from over 200 years ago and environmental change. Importantly, higher rates of nitrogen deposition led to increased species richness and plant height in forests managed less intensively in 1800 (i.e., high forests), and to decreases in forests with a more intensive historical management in 1800 (i.e., coppiced forests). There was evidence that these declines in community variables in formerly coppiced forests were ameliorated by increased rates of temperature change between surveys. Responses were generally apparent regardless of sites' contemporary management classifications, although sometimes the management transition itself, rather than historic or contemporary management types, better explained understorey responses. Main effects of environmental change were rare, although higher rates of precipitation change increased plant height, accompanied by increases in fertility indicator values. Analysis of indicator values suggested the importance of directly characterising resources and conditions to better understand legacy and environmental change effects. Accounting for legacies of past disturbance can reconcile contradictory literature results and appears crucial to anticipating future responses to global environmental change. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  9. Air pollution and watershed research in the central Sierra Nevada of California: nitrogen and ozone.

    PubMed

    Hunsaker, Carolyn; Bytnerowicz, Andrzej; Auman, Jessica; Cisneros, Ricardo

    2007-03-21

    Maintaining healthy forests is the major objective for the Forest Service scientists and managers working for the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Air pollution, specifically ozone (O3) and nitrogenous (N) air pollutants, may severely affect the health of forest ecosystems in the western U.S. Thus, the monitoring of air pollution concentration and deposition levels, as well as studies focused on understanding effects mechanisms, are essential for evaluation of risks associated with their presence. Such information is essential for development of proper management strategies for maintaining clean air, clean water, and healthy ecosystems on land managed by the Forest Service. We report on two years of research in the central Sierra Nevada of California, a semi-arid forest at elevations of 1100-2700 m. Information on O3 and N air pollutants is obtained from a network of 18 passive samplers. We relate the atmospheric N concentration to N concentrations in streams, shallow soil water, and bulk deposition collectors within the Kings River Experimental Watershed. This watershed also contains an intensive site that is part of a recent Forest Service effort to calculate critical loads for N, sulfur, and acidity to forest ecosystems. The passive sampler design allows for extensive spatial measurements while the watershed experiment provides intensive spatial data for future analysis of ecosystem processes.

  10. Variations in the susceptibility to landslides, as a consequence of land cover changes: A look to the past, and another towards the future.

    PubMed

    Pisano, L; Zumpano, V; Malek, Ž; Rosskopf, C M; Parise, M

    2017-12-01

    Land cover is one of the most important conditioning factors in landslide susceptibility analysis. Usually it is considered as a static factor, but it has proven to be dynamic, with changes occurring even in few decades. In this work the influence of land cover changes on landslide susceptibility are analyzed for the past and for future scenarios. For the application, an area representative of the hilly-low mountain sectors of the Italian Southern Apennines was chosen (Rivo basin, in Molise Region). With this purpose landslide inventories and land cover maps were produced for the years 1954, 1981 and 2007. Two alternative future scenarios were created for 2050, one which follows the past trend (2050-trend), and another one more extreme, foreseeing a decrease of forested and cultivated areas (2050-alternative). The landslide susceptibility analysis was performed using the Spatial Multi-Criteria Evaluation method for different time steps, investigating changes to susceptibility over time. The results show that environmental dynamics, such as land cover change, affect slope stability in time. In fact there is a decrease of susceptibility in the past and in the future 2050-trend scenario. This is due to the increase of forest or cultivated areas, that is probably determined by a better land management, water and soil control respect to other land cover types such as shrubland, pasture or bareland. Conversely the results revealed by the alternative scenario (2050-alternative), show how the decrease in forest and cultivated areas leads to an increase in landslide susceptibility. This can be related to the assumed worst climatic condition leading to a minor agricultural activity and lower extension of forested areas, possibly associated also to the effects of forest fires. The results suggest that conscious landscape management might contribute to determine a significant reduction in landslide susceptibility. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. Regional air quality impacts of future fire emissions in Sumatra and Kalimantan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marlier, Miriam E.; DeFries, Ruth S.; Kim, Patrick S.; Gaveau, David L. A.; Koplitz, Shannon N.; Jacob, Daniel J.; Mickley, Loretta J.; Margono, Belinda A.; Myers, Samuel S.

    2015-05-01

    Fire emissions associated with land cover change and land management contribute to the concentrations of atmospheric pollutants, which can affect regional air quality and climate. Mitigating these impacts requires a comprehensive understanding of the relationship between fires and different land cover change trajectories and land management strategies. We develop future fire emissions inventories from 2010-2030 for Sumatra and Kalimantan (Indonesian Borneo) to assess the impact of varying levels of forest and peatland conservation on air quality in Equatorial Asia. To compile these inventories, we combine detailed land cover information from published maps of forest extent, satellite fire radiative power observations, fire emissions from the Global Fire Emissions Database, and spatially explicit future land cover projections using a land cover change model. We apply the sensitivities of mean smoke concentrations to Indonesian fire emissions, calculated by the GEOS-Chem adjoint model, to our scenario-based future fire emissions inventories to quantify the different impacts of fires on surface air quality across Equatorial Asia. We find that public health impacts are highly sensitive to the location of fires, with emissions from Sumatra contributing more to smoke concentrations at population centers across the region than Kalimantan, which had higher emissions by more than a factor of two. Compared to business-as-usual projections, protecting peatlands from fires reduces smoke concentrations in the cities of Singapore and Palembang by 70% and 40%, and by 60% for the Equatorial Asian region, weighted by the population in each grid cell. Our results indicate the importance of focusing conservation priorities on protecting both forested (intact or logged) peatlands and non-forested peatlands from fire, even after considering potential leakage of deforestation pressure to other areas, in order to limit the impact of fire emissions on atmospheric smoke concentrations and subsequent health effects.

  12. Simulating the consequences of land management.

    Treesearch

    Jonathan. Thompson

    2007-01-01

    How do you project the effects of management decisions made today on future conditions of riparian forests, stream habitat, and fish abundance in the streams and rivers of the interior Columbia Basin? Researchers at PNW Research Station have developed some novel analytical tools to help answer this question. Their work is part of the Interior Northwest Landscape...

  13. Empirical yield tables for spruce-fir cut-over lands in the Northeast

    Treesearch

    Marinus Westveld

    1953-01-01

    Predicting future timber yields is an unavoidable task for the forest manager who is interested in growing timber as a long-term investment. He must predict yields as a basis for formulating management plans and policies. And he must predict yields from lands that differ greatly in productivity.

  14. Proceedings: national workshop on recreation research and management.

    Treesearch

    Linda E. Kruger; Rhonda Mazza; Kelly Lawrence

    2007-01-01

    Given increasing need and decreasing capacity, the Forest Service outdoor recreation research program must strategize how best to address current and future priorities. The papers compiled here were presented at the National Workshop on Recreation Research and Management held in Portland, Oregon, February 8-10, 2005. Papers are organized around four themes:...

  15. Multi-scale controls of historical forest-fire regimes: new insights from fire-scar networks

    Treesearch

    Donald A. Falk; Emily K. Heyerdahl; Peter M. Brown; Calvin Farris; Peter Z. Fule; Donald McKenzie; Thomas W. Swetnam; Alan H. Taylor; Megan L. Van Horne

    2011-01-01

    Anticipating future forest-fire regimes under changing climate requires that scientists and natural resource managers understand the factors that control fire across space and time. Fire scars—proxy records of fires, formed in the growth rings of long-lived trees—provide an annually accurate window into past low-severity fire regimes. In western North America, networks...

  16. Multiple constraint modeling of nutrient cycling stoichiometry following forest clearing and pasture abandonment in the Eastern Amazon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Davidson, Eric; Nifong, Rachel

    2017-04-01

    While deforestation has declined since its peak, land-use change continues to modify Amazonian landscapes. The responses and feedbacks of biogeochemical cycles to these changes play an important role in determining possible future trajectories of ecosystem function and for land stewardship through effects on rates of secondary forest regrowth, soil emissions of greenhouse gases, inputs of nutrients to groundwater and streamwater, and nutrient management in agroecosystems. Here we present a new synthetic analyses of data from the NASA-supported LBA-ECO project and others datasets on nutrient cycling in cattle pastures, secondary forests, and mature forests at Paragominas, Pará, Brazil. We have developed a stoichiometric model relating C-N-P interactions during original forest clearing, extensive and intensive pasture management, and secondary forest regrowth, constrained by multiple observations of ecosystem stocks and fluxes in each land use. While P is conservatively cycled in all land uses, we demonstrate that pyrolyzation of N during pasture formation and during additional burns for pasture management depletes available-N pools, consistent with observations of lower rates of N leaching and trace gas emission and consistent with secondary forest growth responses to experimental N amendments. The soils store large stocks of N and P, and our parameterization of available forms of these nutrients for steady-state dynamics in the mature forest yield reasonable estimates of net N and P mineralization available for grasses and secondary forest species at rates consistent with observed biomass accumulation and productivity in these modified ecosystems. Because grasses and forests have much different demands for N relative to P, the land use has important biogeochemical impacts. The model demonstrates the need for periodic P inputs for sustainable pasture management and for a period of significant biological N fixation for early-to-mid-successional secondary forest regrowth. The model framework illustrates the relative magnitudes of changing stocks and flows of nutrients and attendant ecosystem functions through the phases of land use change experienced in eastern Amazonia.

  17. Application of the environmentally sensitive forest growth and mortality submodel, ESGM, for estimating the historic and future forest carbon budget for the Sooke Lake Watershed, British Columbia.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Trofymow, J. A.; Hember, R.; Smiley, B. P.; Morken, S.; Kurz, W. A.

    2016-12-01

    Forest resource managers require knowledge of how natural disturbances, harvest, land-use change, and climate change affect carbon (C) budgets of complex landscapes. In this study, a retrospective (1911-2012) forest C budget for the 8500 ha Sooke Lake watershed was developed based on forest inventories, disturbance, and stream monitoring data using the Canadian Forest Service's spatially-explicit Generic Carbon Budget Model (GCBM). This standard version of GCBM used species-specific volume-over-age curves and site indices to determine tree growth and thus does not explicitly account for environmental factors (climate, CO2, N deposition) that may affect trees and net ecosystem production (NEP). Therefore, a new submodel was developed for GCBM, ESGM, which uses empirical equations to account for influences of 8 environmental factors on tree growth and mortality, based on analysis of multi-decadal data from 19,777 field plots from western North America. Annual environmental variables were prepared (1910-2012) for input to GCBMesgm and temperature effects on decay rates were turned on in the GCBM soil submodel. In response to fires, harvesting, planting, and deforestation for drinking water reservoir expansions, the standard GCBM run showed over 100 years (1911, 1940, 1991, 2012) aboveground biomass C (262, 189, 148, 177 MgC/ha) and NEP (0.6, -1.3, 0.8, 2.3 Mg C/ha/yr) declined and then increased as harvest and deforestation ceased in 2002. From 1.5 -6.5% of terrestrial humified soil C losses (30,640 Mg C/100 yrs) were estimated to have been exported as dissolved organic carbon. Assuming no future disturbances, the standard GCBM run indicates NEP will peak at 2.64 MgC/ha/yr in 2024 and biomass C reach 1910 levels by 2075. Comparisons will be made between standard GCBM and GCBMesgmruns of the C budget for the historic period and for future climate scenarios (baseline, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) from the CanESM2 GCM, to explore the potential implications of environmental change for future watershed management.

  18. Predator- and Scavenger-Mediated Ecosystem Services Determined by Distance to Field-Forest Interface in the Maine Lowbush Blueberry Agroecosystem.

    PubMed

    Jones, Matthew S; Halteman, William A; Drummond, Francis A

    2016-10-01

    Predators and scavengers play a vital role in regulating insect pests, weeds, and vertebrate scat in perennial agroecosystems. Understanding how farm management practices and surrounding habitat influence these beneficial ecosystem services contributes to our understanding of these complex ecological systems and guides future management decisions. In a mensurative 2-yr study, we determined how different pest management strategies and surrounding forest composition influenced levels of sentinel insect pupae, weed seeds, and deer scat (feces) removal. Removal of these bioresources was measured within 12 commercial lowbush blueberry fields during 2011 and 2012; farms differed in surrounding landscape composition and farm management strategies. Both the removal of sentinel pupae and scat, was significantly higher within field interiors than at field edges and within adjacent forests. Additionally, farm management strategy interacted with field position to result in significantly higher scat removal in conventional field interiors than organic field interiors. Surrounding forest composition had variable effects on removal of materials. Our results indicate higher levels of activity within field centers as opposed to field edges; this is contrary to what has been observed in other perennial cropping agroecosystems. © The Authors 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  19. United States Forest Disturbance Trends Observed Using Landsat Time Series

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Masek, Jeffrey G.; Goward, Samuel N.; Kennedy, Robert E.; Cohen, Warren B.; Moisen, Gretchen G.; Schleeweis, Karen; Huang, Chengquan

    2013-01-01

    Disturbance events strongly affect the composition, structure, and function of forest ecosystems; however, existing U.S. land management inventories were not designed to monitor disturbance. To begin addressing this gap, the North American Forest Dynamics (NAFD) project has examined a geographic sample of 50 Landsat satellite image time series to assess trends in forest disturbance across the conterminous United States for 1985-2005. The geographic sample design used a probability-based scheme to encompass major forest types and maximize geographic dispersion. For each sample location disturbance was identified in the Landsat series using the Vegetation Change Tracker (VCT) algorithm. The NAFD analysis indicates that, on average, 2.77 Mha/yr of forests were disturbed annually, representing 1.09%/yr of US forestland. These satellite-based national disturbance rates estimates tend to be lower than those derived from land management inventories, reflecting both methodological and definitional differences. In particular the VCT approach used with a biennial time step has limited sensitivity to low-intensity disturbances. Unlike prior satellite studies, our biennial forest disturbance rates vary by nearly a factor of two between high and low years. High western US disturbance rates were associated with active fire years and insect activity, while variability in the east is more strongly related to harvest rates in managed forests. We note that generating a geographic sample based on representing forest type and variability may be problematic since the spatial pattern of disturbance does not necessarily correlate with forest type. We also find that the prevalence of diffuse, non-stand clearing disturbance in US forests makes the application of a biennial geographic sample problematic. Future satellite-based studies of disturbance at regional and national scales should focus on wall-to-wall analyses with annual time step for improved accuracy.

  20. Forest management could counteract distribution retractions forced by climate change.

    PubMed

    Mair, Louise; Harrison, Philip J; Räty, Minna; Bärring, Lars; Strandberg, Gustav; Snäll, Tord

    2017-07-01

    Climate change is expected to drive the distribution retraction of northern species. However, particularly in regions with a history of intensive exploitation, changes in habitat management could facilitate distribution expansions counter to expectations under climate change. Here, we test the potential for future forest management to facilitate the southward expansion of an old-forest species from the boreal region into the boreo-nemoral region, contrary to expectations under climate change. We used an ensemble of species distribution models based on citizen science data to project the response of Phellinus ferrugineofuscus, a red-listed old-growth indicator, wood-decaying fungus, to six forest management and climate change scenarios. We projected change in habitat suitability across the boreal and boreo-nemoral regions of Sweden for the period 2020-2100. Scenarios varied in the proportion of forest set aside from production, the level of timber extraction, and the magnitude of climate change. Habitat suitabilities for the study species were projected to show larger relative increases over time in the boreo-nemoral region compared to the boreal region, under all scenarios. By 2100, mean suitabilities in set-aside forest in the boreo-nemoral region were similar to the suitabilities projected for set-aside forest in the boreal region in 2020, suggesting that occurrence in the boreo-nemoral region could be increased. However, across all scenarios, consistently higher projected suitabilities in set-aside forest in the boreal region indicated that the boreal region remained the species stronghold. Furthermore, negative effects of climate change were evident in the boreal region, and projections suggested that climatic changes may eventually counteract the positive effects of forest management in the boreo-nemoral region. Our results suggest that the current rarity of this old-growth indicator species in the boreo-nemoral region may be due to the history of intensive forestry. Forest management therefore has the potential to compensate for the negative effects of climate change. However, increased occurrence at the southern range edge would depend on the dispersal and colonization ability of the species. An increase in the amount of set-aside forest across both the boreal and boreo-nemoral regions is therefore likely to be required to prevent the decline of old-forest species under climate change. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

  1. Impacts of Landuse Management and Climate Change on Landslides Susceptibility over the Olympic Peninsula of Washington State

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barik, M. G.; Adam, J. C.

    2009-12-01

    The commercial forests on the western side of the Olympic Mountains in Washington State are a region of steep slopes and high annual rainfall (2500-6000 mm/year) and are therefore highly susceptible to landslides. Potential climatic change (more intense and frequent winter storms) may exacerbate landslide susceptibility unless forest management practices are changed. As this area is a critical habitat for numerous organisms, including salmon, this may result in potentially severe consequences to riparian habitat due to increased sediment loads. Therefore, there is a need to investigate potential forest management plans to promote the economic viability of timber extraction while protecting the natural habitat, particularly in riparian areas. The objective of this study is to predict the long term effects of forest management decisions under projected climate change on slope stability. We applied the physically-based Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM) with its sediment module to simulate mass wasting and sediment delivery under different vegetation and climate scenarios. Sub-basins were selected and classified according to elevation, slope, land cover and soil type. Various land management practices (such as clear-cutting in riparian areas, logging under short rotations, varying amount of timbers left intact in riparian areas) were applied to each of the selected sub-basins. DHSVM was used to simulate landslide volume, frequency, and sediment loads for each of the land cover applications under various future climate scenarios. We comment on the suitability of various harvesting techniques for different parts of the forest to minimize landslide-induced sediment loading to streams in an altered climate. This approach can be developed as a decision making tool that can be used by forest managers to make long-term planning decisions.

  2. Understanding fire drivers and relative impacts in different Chinese forest ecosystems.

    PubMed

    Guo, Futao; Su, Zhangwen; Wang, Guangyu; Sun, Long; Tigabu, Mulualem; Yang, Xiajie; Hu, Haiqing

    2017-12-15

    In this study, spatial patterns and driving factors of fires were identified from 2000 to 2010 using Ripley's K (d) function and logistic regression (LR) model in two different forest ecosystems of China: the boreal forest (Daxing'an Mountains) and sub-tropical forest (Fujian province). Relative effects of each driving factor on fire occurrence were identified based on standardized coefficients in the LR model. Results revealed that fires were spatially clustered and that fire drivers vary amongst differing forest ecosystems in China. Fires in the Daxing'an Mountains respond primarily to human factors, of which infrastructure is recognized as the most influential. In contrast, climate factors played a critical role in fire occurrence in Fujian, of which the temperature of fire season was found to be of greater importance than other climate factors. Selected factors can predict nearly 80% of the total fire occurrence in the Daxing'an Mountains and 66% in Fujian, wherein human and climate factors contributed the greatest impact in the two study areas, respectively. This study suggests that different fire prevention and management strategies are required in the areas of study, as significant variations of the main fire-driving exist. Rapid socio-economic development has produced similar effects in different forest ecosystems within China, implying a strong correlation between socio-economic development and fire regimes. It can be concluded that the influence of human factors will increase in the future as China's economy continues to grow - an issue of concern that should be further addressed in future national fire management. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. Multi-aged Forest: an Optimal Management Strategy for Carbon Sequestration

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yao, L.; Tang, X.; Ma, M.

    2017-12-01

    Disturbances and climatic changes significantly affect forest ecosystem productivity, water use efficiency (WUE) and carbon (C) flux dynamics. A deep understanding of terrestrial feedbacks to such effects and recovery mechanisms in forests across contrasting climatic regimes is essential to predict future regional/global C and water budgets, which are also closely related to the potential forest management decisions. However, the resilience of multi-aged and even-aged forests to disturbances has been debated for more than 60 years because of technical measurement constraints. Here we evaluated 62 site-years of eddy covariance measurements of net ecosystem production (NEP), evapotranspiration (ET), the estimates of gross primary productivity (GPP), ecosystem respiration (Re) and ecosystem-level WUE, as well as the relationships with environmental controls in three chronosequences of multi- and even-aged coniferous forests covering the Mediterranean, temperate and boreal regions. Age-specific dynamics in multi-year mean annual NEP and WUE revealed that forest age is a key variable that determines the sign and magnitude of recovering forest C source-sink strength from disturbances. However, the trends of annual NEP and WUE across succession stages between two stand structures differed substantially. The successional patterns of NEP exhibited an inverted-U trend with age at the two even-aged chronosequences, whereas NEP of the multi-aged chronosequence increased steadily through time. Meanwhile, site-level WUE of even-aged forests decreased gradually from young to mature, whereas an apparent increase occurred for the same forest age in multi-aged stands. Compared with even-aged forests, multi-aged forests sequestered more CO2 with forest age and maintained a relatively higher WUE in the later succession periods. With regard to the available flux measurements in this study, these behaviors are independent of tree species, stand ages and climate conditions . We also found that distinctly different environmental factors controlled forest C and water fluxes under three climatic regimes.These findings will provide important implications for forest management strategies to mitigate global climate change.

  4. A vicious circle of fire, deforestation and climate change: an integrative study for the Amazon region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thonicke, K.; Rammig, A.; Gumpenberger, M.; Vohland, K.; Poulter, B.; Cramer, W.

    2009-04-01

    The Amazon rainforest is threatened by deforestation due to wood extraction and agricultural production leading to increasing forest fragmentation and forest degradation. These changes in land surface characteristics and water fluxes are expected to further reduce convective precipitation. Under future climate change the stability of the Amazon rainforest is likely to decrease thus leading to forest dieback (savannization) or forest degradation (secondarization). This puts the Amazon rainforest at risk to reduce the generation of precipitation, to act as a carbon sink and biodiversity hotspot. Fires increased in the past during drought years and in open vegetation thereby further accelerating forest degradation. Deforestation as a result of socioeconomic development in the Amazon basin is projected to further increase in the 21st century and brings climate-induced changes forward. Combined effects of deforestation vs. climate change on the stability of the Amazon rainforest and the role of fire in this system need to be quantified in an integrated study. We present simulation results from future climate (AR4) and deforestation (SimAmazon) experiments using the LPJmL-SPITFIRE vegetation model. Land use change is the main driving factor of forest degradation before 2050, whereas extreme climate change scenarios lead to forest degradation by the end of 2100. Forest fires increase with increasing drought conditions during the 21st century. The resulting effects on vegetation secondarization and savannization and their feedbacks on fire spread and emissions will be presented. The effect of wildfires and intentional burning on forest degradation under future climate and socioeconomic change will be discussed, and recommendations for an integrated land use and fire management are given.

  5. Managing Carbon on Federal Public Lands: Opportunities and Challenges in Southwestern Colorado.

    PubMed

    Dilling, Lisa; Kelsey, Katharine C; Fernandez, Daniel P; Huang, Yin D; Milford, Jana B; Neff, Jason C

    2016-08-01

    Federal lands in the United States have been identified as important areas where forests could be managed to enhance carbon storage and help mitigate climate change. However, there has been little work examining the context for decision making for carbon in a multiple-use public land environment, and how science can support decision making. This case study of the San Juan National Forest and the Bureau of Land Management Tres Rios Field Office in southwestern Colorado examines whether land managers in these offices have adequate tools, information, and management flexibility to practice effective carbon stewardship. To understand how carbon was distributed on the management landscape we added a newly developed carbon map for the SJNF-TRFO area based on Landsat TM texture information (Kelsey and Neff in Remote Sens 6:6407-6422. doi: 10.3390/rs6076407 , 2014). We estimate that only about 22 % of the aboveground carbon in the SJNF-TRFO is in areas designated for active management, whereas about 38 % is in areas with limited management opportunities, and 29 % is in areas where natural processes should dominate. To project the effects of forest management actions on carbon storage, staff of the SJNF are expected to use the Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS) and extensions. While identifying FVS as the best tool generally available for this purpose, the users and developers we interviewed highlighted the limitations of applying an empirically based model over long time horizons. Future research to improve information on carbon storage should focus on locations and types of vegetation where carbon management is feasible and aligns with other management priorities.

  6. Managing Carbon on Federal Public Lands: Opportunities and Challenges in Southwestern Colorado

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dilling, Lisa; Kelsey, Katharine C.; Fernandez, Daniel P.; Huang, Yin D.; Milford, Jana B.; Neff, Jason C.

    2016-08-01

    Federal lands in the United States have been identified as important areas where forests could be managed to enhance carbon storage and help mitigate climate change. However, there has been little work examining the context for decision making for carbon in a multiple-use public land environment, and how science can support decision making. This case study of the San Juan National Forest and the Bureau of Land Management Tres Rios Field Office in southwestern Colorado examines whether land managers in these offices have adequate tools, information, and management flexibility to practice effective carbon stewardship. To understand how carbon was distributed on the management landscape we added a newly developed carbon map for the SJNF-TRFO area based on Landsat TM texture information (Kelsey and Neff in Remote Sens 6:6407-6422. doi: 10.3390/rs6076407, 2014). We estimate that only about 22 % of the aboveground carbon in the SJNF-TRFO is in areas designated for active management, whereas about 38 % is in areas with limited management opportunities, and 29 % is in areas where natural processes should dominate. To project the effects of forest management actions on carbon storage, staff of the SJNF are expected to use the Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS) and extensions. While identifying FVS as the best tool generally available for this purpose, the users and developers we interviewed highlighted the limitations of applying an empirically based model over long time horizons. Future research to improve information on carbon storage should focus on locations and types of vegetation where carbon management is feasible and aligns with other management priorities.

  7. Challenges of reforestation in a water limited world under climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mátyás, Csaba; Sun, Ge

    2014-05-01

    The debate on the ecological benefits of planted forests at the sensitive lower edge of the closed forest belt (at the "xeric limits") is still unresolved. Forests sequester atmospheric carbon dioxide, control water erosion and dust storms, reduce river sedimentation, and mitigate small floods. However, planting trees in areas previously predominantly occupied by grassland or agriculture can dramatically alter the energy and water balance at multiple scales. The forest/grassland transition zone is especially vulnerable to projected drastic temperature and precipitation shifts under future climate change and variability due to its high ecohydrological sensitivity. The study investigates some of the relevant aspects of the ecological and climatic role of plantation forests and potential impacts at the dryland edges of the temperate zone, using case studies from three countries/regions on three continents. We found that, contrary to popular expectations, the effect of forest cover on regional climate might be limited and the influence of reforestation on water resources might turn into negative. Planted forests generally reduce stream flow and lower groundwater table level because of higher water use than previous land cover types. Increased evaporation potential due to global warming and/or extreme drought events likely reduce areas that are appropriate for tree growth and forest establishment. Ecologically conscious forest policy on management, silviculture and reforestation planning requires the consideration of local hydrologic conditions, future climatic conditions, and also of non-forest alternatives of land use. Keywords: drylands, xeric limits, trailing limits, ecohydrology, climate forcing, land use change, forest policy

  8. Assessing Potential Future Carbon Dynamics with Climate Change and Fire Management in a Mountainous Landscape on the Olympic Peninsula, Washington, USA

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kennedy, R. S.

    2010-12-01

    Forests of the mountainous landscapes of the maritime Pacific Northwestern USA may have high carbon sequestration potential via their high productivity and moderate to infrequent fire regimes. With climate change, there may be shifts in incidence and severity of fire, especially in the drier areas of the region, via changes to forest productivity and hydrology, and consequent effects to C sequestration and forest structure. To explore this issue, I assessed potential effects of fire management (little fire suppression/wildland fire management/highly effective fire suppression) under two climate change scenarios on future C sequestration dynamics (amounts and spatial pattern) in Olympic National Park, WA, over a 500-year simulation period. I used the simulation platform FireBGCv2, which contains a mechanistic, individual tree succession model, a spatially explicit climate-based biophysical model that uses daily weather data, and a spatially explicit fire model incorporating ignition, spread, and effects on ecosystem components. C sequestration patterns varied over time and spatial and temporal patterns differed somewhat depending on the climate change scenario applied and the fire management methods employed. Under the more extreme climate change scenario with little fire suppression, fires were most frequent and severe and C sequestration decreased. General trends were similar under the more moderate climate change scenario, as compared to current climate, but spatial patterns differed. Both climate change scenarios under highly effective fire suppression showed about 50% of starting total C after the initial transition phase, whereas with 10% fire suppression both scenarios exhibited about 10% of starting amounts. Areas of the landscape that served as refugia for older forest under increasing frequency of high severity fire were also hotspots for C sequestration in a landscape experiencing increasing frequency of disturbance with climate change.

  9. Comparing effects of climate warming, fire, and timber harvesting on a boreal forest landscape in northeastern China.

    PubMed

    Li, Xiaona; He, Hong S; Wu, Zhiwei; Liang, Yu; Schneiderman, Jeffrey E

    2013-01-01

    Forest management under a changing climate requires assessing the effects of climate warming and disturbance on the composition, age structure, and spatial patterns of tree species. We investigated these effects on a boreal forest in northeastern China using a factorial experimental design and simulation modeling. We used a spatially explicit forest landscape model (LANDIS) to evaluate the effects of three independent variables: climate (current and expected future), fire regime (current and increased fire), and timber harvesting (no harvest and legal harvest). Simulations indicate that this forested landscape would be significantly impacted under a changing climate. Climate warming would significantly increase the abundance of most trees, especially broadleaf species (aspen, poplar, and willow). However, climate warming would have less impact on the abundance of conifers, diversity of forest age structure, and variation in spatial landscape structure than burning and harvesting. Burning was the predominant influence in the abundance of conifers except larch and the abundance of trees in mid-stage. Harvesting impacts were greatest for the abundance of larch and birch, and the abundance of trees during establishment stage (1-40 years), early stage (41-80 years) and old- growth stage (>180 years). Disturbance by timber harvesting and burning may significantly alter forest ecosystem dynamics by increasing forest fragmentation and decreasing forest diversity. Results from the simulations provide insight into the long term management of this boreal forest.

  10. Climate-Driven Risk of Large Fire Occurrence in the Western United States, 1500 to 2003

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Crockett, J.; Westerling, A. L.

    2017-12-01

    Spatially comprehensive fire climatology has provided managers with tools to understand thecauses and consequences of large forest wildfires, but a paleoclimate context is necessary foranticipating the trajectory of future climate-fire relationships. Although accumulated charcoalrecords and tree scars have been utilized in high resolution, regional fire reconstructions, there isuncertainty as to how current climate-fire relationships of the western United States (WUS) fitwithin the natural long-term variability. While contemporary PDSI falls within the naturalvariability of the past, contemporary temperatures skew higher. Here, we develop a WUSfire reconstruction by applying climate-fire-topography model built on the 1972 to 2003 periodto the past 500 years, validated by recently updated fire-scar histories from WUS forests. Theresultant narrative provides insight into changing climate-fire relationships during extendedperiods of high aridity and temperature, providing land managers with historical precedent toeffectively anticipate disturbances during future climate change.

  11. Resolving the conflict between ecosystem protection and land use in protected areas of the Sierra Madre de Chiapas, Mexico.

    PubMed

    Cortina-Villar, Sergio; Plascencia-Vargas, Héctor; Vaca, Raúl; Schroth, Götz; Zepeda, Yatziri; Soto-Pinto, Lorena; Nahed-Toral, José

    2012-03-01

    Livelihoods of people living in many protected areas (PAs) around the world are in conflict with biodiversity conservation. In Mexico, the decrees of creation of biosphere reserves state that rural communities with the right to use buffer zones must avoid deforestation and their land uses must become sustainable, a task which is not easily accomplished. The objectives of this paper are: (a) to analyze the conflict between people's livelihoods and ecosystem protection in the PAs of the Sierra Madre de Chiapas (SMC), paying special attention to the rates and causes of deforestation and (b) to review policy options to ensure forest and ecosystem conservation in these PAs, including the existing payments for environmental services system and improvements thereof as well as options for sustainable land management. We found that the three largest PAs in the SMC are still largely forested, and deforestation rates have decreased since 2000. Cases of forest conversion are located in specific zones and are related to agrarian and political conflicts as well as growing economic inequality and population numbers. These problems could cause an increase in forest loss in the near future. Payments for environmental services and access to carbon markets are identified as options to ensure forest permanence but still face problems. Challenges for the future are to integrate these incentive mechanisms with sustainable land management and a stronger involvement of land holders in conservation.

  12. Resolving the Conflict Between Ecosystem Protection and Land Use in Protected Areas of the Sierra Madre de Chiapas, Mexico

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cortina-Villar, Sergio; Plascencia-Vargas, Héctor; Vaca, Raúl; Schroth, Götz; Zepeda, Yatziri; Soto-Pinto, Lorena; Nahed-Toral, José

    2012-03-01

    Livelihoods of people living in many protected areas (PAs) around the world are in conflict with biodiversity conservation. In Mexico, the decrees of creation of biosphere reserves state that rural communities with the right to use buffer zones must avoid deforestation and their land uses must become sustainable, a task which is not easily accomplished. The objectives of this paper are: (a) to analyze the conflict between people's livelihoods and ecosystem protection in the PAs of the Sierra Madre de Chiapas (SMC), paying special attention to the rates and causes of deforestation and (b) to review policy options to ensure forest and ecosystem conservation in these PAs, including the existing payments for environmental services system and improvements thereof as well as options for sustainable land management. We found that the three largest PAs in the SMC are still largely forested, and deforestation rates have decreased since 2000. Cases of forest conversion are located in specific zones and are related to agrarian and political conflicts as well as growing economic inequality and population numbers. These problems could cause an increase in forest loss in the near future. Payments for environmental services and access to carbon markets are identified as options to ensure forest permanence but still face problems. Challenges for the future are to integrate these incentive mechanisms with sustainable land management and a stronger involvement of land holders in conservation.

  13. Quantitative assessment of Vulnerability of Forest ecosystem to Climate Change in Korea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Byun, J.; Lee, W.; Choi, S.; Oh, S.; Climate Change Model Team

    2011-12-01

    The purpose of this study was to assess the vulnerability of forest ecosystem to climate change in Korea using outputs of vegetation models(HyTAG and MC1) and socio-ecological indicators. Also it suggested adaptation strategies in forest management through analysis of three vulnerability components: exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. For the model simulation of past years(1971-2000), the climatic data was prepared by the Korea Meteorological Administration(KMA). In addition, for the future simulation, the Fifth-Generation NCAR/Penn State Mesoscale Model(MM5) coupling with atmosphere-ocean circulation model(ECHO-G) provide the future climatic data under the A1B scenarios. HyTAG (Hydrological and Thermal Analogy Groups), korean model of forest distribution on a regional-scale, could show extent of sensitivity and adaptive capacity in connection with changing frequency and changing direction of vegetation. MC1 model could provide variation and direction of NPP(Net Primary Production) and SCS(Soil Carbon Storage). In addition, the sensitivity and adaptation capacity were evaluated for each. Besides indicators from models, many other indicators such as financial affairs and number of officers were included in the vulnerability components. As a result of the vulnerability assessment, south western part and Je-ju island of Korea had relatively high vulnerability. This finding is considered to come from a distinctively adaptative capacity. Using these results, we could propose actions against climate change and develop decision making systems on forest management.

  14. Forest conservation and management in the Anthropocene: Conference proceedings

    Treesearch

    V. Alaric Sample; R. Patrick Bixler

    2014-01-01

    Climate change is but one aspect of the Anthropocene, a new epoch in which the effects of human activities have become the predominant force in the global biosphere. More than just an overlay on the traditional concerns of sustainable natural resource management, the uncertainties associated with these effects are creating a "no-analog future" in which much...

  15. Climate change effects in El Yunque National Forest, Puerto Rico, and the Caribbean region

    Treesearch

    Lisa Nicole Jennings; Jamison Douglas; Emrys Treasure; Grizelle González

    2014-01-01

    Understanding the current and expected future conditions of natural resources under a changing climate is essential to making informed management decisions. However, the ever increasing volume of useful scientific information about climate change makes it difficult for managers and planners to effectively sort through and apply the emerging science. This report...

  16. Adaptive genetic potential of coniferous forest tree species under climate change: implications for sustainable forest management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mihai, Georgeta; Birsan, Marius-Victor; Teodosiu, Maria; Dumitrescu, Alexandru; Daia, Mihai; Mirancea, Ionel; Ivanov, Paula; Alin, Alexandru

    2017-04-01

    Mountain ecosystems are extremely vulnerable to climate change. The real potential for adaptation depends upon the existence of a wide genetic diversity in trees populations, upon the adaptive genetic variation, respectively. Genetic diversity offers the guarantee that forest species can survive, adapt and evolve under the influence of changing environmental conditions. The aim of this study is to evaluate the genetic diversity and adaptive genetic potential of two local species - Norway spruce and European silver fir - in the context of regional climate change. Based on data from a long-term provenance experiments network and climate variables spanning over more than 50 years, we have investigated the impact of climatic factors on growth performance and adaptation of tree species. Our results indicate that climatic and geographic factors significantly affect forest site productivity. Mean annual temperature and annual precipitation amount were found to be statistically significant explanatory variables. Combining the additive genetic model with the analysis of nuclear markers we obtained different images of the genetic structure of tree populations. As genetic indicators we used: gene frequencies, genetic diversity, genetic differentiation, genetic variance, plasticity. Spatial genetic analyses have allowed identifying the genetic centers holding high genetic diversity which will be valuable sources of gene able to buffer the negative effects of future climate change. Correlations between the marginal populations and in the optimal vegetation, between the level of genetic diversity and ecosystem stability, will allow the assessment of future risks arising from current genetic structure. Therefore, the strategies for sustainable forest management have to rely on the adaptive genetic variation and local adaptation of the valuable genetic resources. This work was realized within the framework of the project GENCLIM (Evaluating the adaptive potential of the main coniferous species for a sustainable forest management in the context of climate change), financed by the Executive Agency for Higher Education, Research, Development and Innovation Funding, grant number PN-II-PC-PCCA-2013-4-0695.

  17. Climatically-mediated landcover change: impacts on Brazilian territory.

    PubMed

    Zanin, Marina; Tessarolo, Geiziane; Machado, Nathália; Albernaz, Ana Luisa M

    2017-01-01

    In the face of climate change threats, governments are drawing attention to policies for mitigating its effects on biodiversity. However, the lack of distribution data makes predictions at species level a difficult task, mainly in regions of higher biodiversity. To overcome this problem, we use native landcover as a surrogate biodiversity, because it can represent specialized habitat for species, and investigate the effects of future climate change on Brazilian biomes. We characterize the climatic niches of native landcover and use ecological niche modeling to predict the potential distribution under current and future climate scenarios. Our results highlight expansion of the distribution of open vegetation and the contraction of closed forests. Drier Brazilian biomes, like Caatinga and Cerrado, are predicted to expand their distributions, being the most resistant to climate change impacts. However, these would also be affected by losses of their closed forest enclaves and their habitat-specific or endemic species. Replacement by open vegetation and overall reductions are a considerable risk for closed forest, threatening Amazon and Atlantic forest biomes. Here, we evidence the impacts of climate change on Brazilian biomes, and draw attention to the necessity for management and attenuation plans to guarantee the future of Brazilian biodiversity.

  18. Tree diversity mitigates defoliation after a drought-induced tipping point.

    PubMed

    Sousa-Silva, Rita; Verheyen, Kris; Ponette, Quentin; Bay, Elodie; Sioen, Geert; Titeux, Hugues; Van de Peer, Thomas; Van Meerbeek, Koenraad; Muys, Bart

    2018-05-26

    Understanding the processes that underlie drought-related tree vitality loss is essential for anticipating future forest dynamics, and for developing management plans aiming at increasing the resilience of forests to climate change. Forest vitality has been continuously monitored in Europe since the acid rain alert in the 1980s, and the intensive monitoring plots of ICP Forests offer the opportunity to investigate the effects of air pollution and climate change on forest condition. By making use of over 100 long-term monitoring plots, where crown defoliation has been assessed extensively since 1990, we discovered a progressive shift from a negative to a positive effect of species richness on forest health. The observed tipping point in the balance of net interactions, from competition to facilitation, has never been reported from real ecosystems outside experimental conditions; and the strong temporal consistency of our observations with increasing drought stress emphasizes its climate change relevance. Furthermore, we show that higher species diversity has reduced the severity of defoliation in the long term. Our results confirm the greater resilience of diverse forests to future climate change-induced stress. More generally, they add to an accumulating body of evidence on the large potential of tree species mixtures to face manifold disturbances in a changing world. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  19. Challenges to Sierra Nevada forests and their local communities: An observational and modeling perspective

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schmidt, Cynthia L.

    Global forests are experiencing dramatic changes due to changes in climate as well as anthropogenic activities. Increased warming is causing the advancement of some species upslope and northward, while it is also causing widespread mortality due to increased drought conditions. In addition, increasing human population in mountain regions is resulting in elevated risk of human life and property loss due to larger and more severe wildfires. My research focuses on assessing the current vulnerability of forests and their communities in the Sierra Nevada, and how forests are projected to change in the future based on different climate change scenarios. In the first chapter I use Landsat satellite imagery to identify and attribute cause of forest disturbance between 1985 and 2011, primarily focusing on disturbances due to insect, diseases and drought. The change-detection algorithm, Landtrendr, was successfully used to identify forest disturbance, but identifying cause of disturbance was challenging due to the spectral similarities between disturbance types. Landtrendr was most successful in identifying disturbance due to insect, disease and drought in the San Bernardino National Forest, where there is little forest management activity. In the second chapter, I assess whether state or local land use policies in high-fire prone regions exist to reduce the vulnerability of residential developments to wildfire. Three specific land-use tools associated with reducing wildfire vulnerability are identified: (1) buffers around developments; (2) clustered developments; (3) restricting construction on slopes greater than 25%. The study also determines whether demographic and physical characteristics of selected California counties were related to implementing land use policies related to reducing wildfire vulnerability. Results indicate that land use policies related to preventing wildfire-related losses focus on building materials, road access, water availability and vegetation management, not the three identified land-use tools. San Diego County, the county that has experienced the most devastating fires, had the highest percentage of residential developments with both clustering and buffering. The third chapter focuses on future forest conditions. I used a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (DGVM) to assess future vegetation dynamics and productivity under changing climate and atmospheric CO2 concentrations in the Sierra Nevada. Model results suggest that Temperate Broadleaved Evergreen Plant Functional Types (PFTs) will move upslope and eastward, replacing Temperate Needleleaved PFTs. Boreal Needleleaved Evergreen PFTs, found primarily at higher elevations, will decline dramatically as temperatures continue to increase. Gross Primary Productivity (GPP) will increase as atmospheric CO2 concentration increases, due primarily to the increase in the more productive broadleaved PFTs. Forest ecosystems play an important role in maintaining climate stability at the regional and global scales as a vital carbon sink, so understanding the role of disturbance and climate change will be vital to both scientists and policy makers in the future.

  20. Forest management in Earth system modelling: a vertically discretised canopy description for ORCHIDEE and the modifications to the energy, water and carbon fluxes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Naudts, Kim; Ryder, James; McGrath, Matthew J.; Otto, Juliane; Chen, Yiying; Valade, Aude; Bellasen, Valentin; Ghattas, Josefine; Haverd, Vanessa; MacBean, Natasha; Maignan, Fabienne; Peylin, Philippe; Pinty, Bernard; Solyga, Didier; Vuichard, Nicolas; Luyssaert, Sebastiaan

    2015-04-01

    Since 70% of global forests are managed and forests impact the global carbon cycle and the energy exchange with the overlying atmosphere, forest management has the potential to mitigate climate change. Yet, none of the land surface models used in Earth system models, and therefore none of today's predictions of future climate, account for the interactions between climate and forest management. We addressed this gap in modelling capability by developing and parametrizing a version of the land surface model ORCHIDEE to simulate the biogeochemical and biophysical effects of forest management. The most significant changes between the new model called ORCHIDEE-CAN and the standard version of ORCHIDEE are the allometric-based allocation of carbon to leaf, root, wood, fruit and reserve pools; the transmittance, absorbance and reflectance of radiation within the canopy; and the vertical discretisation of the energy budget calculations. In addition, conceptual changes towards a better process representation occurred for the interaction of radiation with snow, the hydraulic architecture of plants, the representation of forest management and a numerical solution for the photosynthesis formalism of Farquhar, von Caemmerer and Berry. For consistency reasons, these changes were extensively linked throughout the code. Parametrization was revisited after introducing twelve new parameter sets that represent specific tree species or genera rather than a group of unrelated species, as is the case in widely used plant functional types. Performance of the new model was compared against the trunk and validated against independent spatially explicit data for basal area, tree height, canopy structure, GPP, albedo and evapotranspiration over Europe. For all tested variables ORCHIDEE-CAN outperformed the trunk regarding its ability to reproduce large-scale spatial patterns as well as their inter-annual variability over Europe. Depending on the data stream, ORCHIDEE-CAN had a 67 to 92% chance to reproduce the spatial and temporal variability of the validation data.

  1. Forest biogeochemistry in response to drought.

    PubMed

    Schlesinger, William H; Dietze, Michael C; Jackson, Robert B; Phillips, Richard P; Rhoades, Charles C; Rustad, Lindsey E; Vose, James M

    2016-07-01

    Trees alter their use and allocation of nutrients in response to drought, and changes in soil nutrient cycling and trace gas flux (N2 O and CH4 ) are observed when experimental drought is imposed on forests. In extreme droughts, trees are increasingly susceptible to attack by pests and pathogens, which can lead to major changes in nutrient flux to the soil. Extreme droughts often lead to more common and more intense forest fires, causing dramatic changes in the nutrient storage and loss from forest ecosystems. Changes in the future manifestation of drought will affect carbon uptake and storage in forests, leading to feedbacks to the Earth's climate system. We must improve the recognition of drought in nature, our ability to manage our forests in the face of drought, and the parameterization of drought in earth system models for improved predictions of carbon uptake and storage in the world's forests. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  2. Landscape dynamics in Mediterranean oak forests under global change: understanding the role of anthropogenic and environmental drivers across forest types.

    PubMed

    Acácio, Vanda; Dias, Filipe S; Catry, Filipe X; Rocha, Marta; Moreira, Francisco

    2017-03-01

    The Mediterranean region is projected to be extremely vulnerable to global change, which will affect the distribution of typical forest types such as native oak forests. However, our understanding of Mediterranean oak forest responses to future conditions is still very limited by the lack of knowledge on oak forest dynamics and species-specific responses to multiple drivers. We compared the long-term (1966-2006) forest persistence and land cover change among evergreen (cork oak and holm oak) and deciduous oak forests and evaluated the importance of anthropogenic and environmental drivers on observed changes for Portugal. We used National Forest Inventories to quantify the changes in oak forests and explored the drivers of change using multinomial logistic regression analysis and an information theoretical approach. We found distinct trends among oak forest types, reflecting the differences in oak economic value, protection status and management schemes: cork oak forests were the most persistent (62%), changing mostly to pines and eucalypt; holm oak forests were less persistent (53.2%), changing mostly to agriculture; and deciduous oak forests were the least persistent (45.7%), changing mostly to shrublands. Drivers of change had distinct importance across oak forest types, but drivers from anthropogenic origin (wildfires, population density, and land accessibility) were always among the most important. Climatic extremes were also important predictors of oak forest changes, namely extreme temperatures for evergreen oak forests and deficit of precipitation for deciduous oak forests. Our results indicate that under increasing human pressure and forecasted climate change, evergreen oak forests will continue declining and deciduous oak forests will be replaced by forests dominated by more xeric species. In the long run, multiple disturbances may change competitive dominance from oak forests to pyrophytic shrublands. A better understanding of forest dynamics and the inclusion of anthropogenic drivers on models of vegetation change will improve predicting the future of Mediterranean oak forests. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  3. Sustainable Forest Operations (SFO): A new paradigm in a changing world and climate.

    PubMed

    Marchi, Enrico; Chung, Woodam; Visser, Rien; Abbas, Dalia; Nordfjell, Tomas; Mederski, Piotr S; McEwan, Andrew; Brink, Michal; Laschi, Andrea

    2018-09-01

    The effective implementation of sustainable forest management depends largely on carrying out forest operations in a sustainable manner. Climate change, as well as the increasing demand for forest products, requires a re-thinking of forest operations in terms of sustainability. In this context, it is important to understand the major driving factors for the future development of forest operations that promote economic, environmental and social well-being. The main objective of this paper is to identify important issues concerning forest operations and to propose a new paradigm towards sustainability in a changing climate, work and environmental conditions. Previously developed concepts of forest operations are reviewed, and a newly developed concept - Sustainable Forest Operations (SFO), is presented. Five key performance areas to ensure the sustainability of forest operations include: (i) environment; (ii) ergonomics; (iii) economics; (iv) quality optimization of products and production; and (v) people and society. Practical field examples are presented to demonstrate how these five interconnected principles are relevant to achieving sustainability, namely profit and wood quality maximization, ecological benefits, climate change mitigation, carbon sequestration, and forest workers' health and safety. The new concept of SFO provides integrated perspectives and approaches to effectively address ongoing and foreseeable challenges the global forest communities face, while balancing forest operations performance across economic, environmental and social sustainability. In this new concept, we emphasize the role of wood as a renewable and environmentally friendly material, and forest workers' safety and utilization efficiency and waste management as additional key elements of sustainability. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. Natural reproduction in certain cutover pine-fir stands in California

    Treesearch

    H.A. Fowells; G.H. Schubert

    1951-01-01

    Natural reproduction must provide future crops of timber on most of the forest land being placed under management in California. Relatively few acres will be planted or seeded in the near future because planting costs are high, facilities for undertaking large-scale planting are inadequate, and direct seeding has not yet proved satisfactory. In the pine region it is...

  5. Recent and future climate suitability for whitebark pine mortality from mountain pine beetles varies across the western US

    Treesearch

    Polly C. Buotte; Jeffrey A. Hicke; Haiganoush K. Preisler; John T. Abatzoglou; Kenneth F. Raffa; Jesse A. Logan

    2017-01-01

    Recent mountain pine beetle outbreaks in whitebark pine forests have been extensive and severe. Understanding the climate influences on these outbreaks is essential for developing management plans that account for potential future mountain pine beetle outbreaks, among other threats, and informing listing decisions under the Endangered Species Act. Prior research has...

  6. Forest landscape mosaics: Disturbance, restoration, and management at times of global change

    Treesearch

    Kalev Jogiste; Bengt Gunnar Jonsson; Timo Kuuluvainen; Sylvie Gauthier; W. Keith Moser

    2015-01-01

    Potential effects of hypothesized anthropogenic climate change are raising concerns about the sustainability of development in terms of both people and the rest of the environment. Land use change at the global scale presents many challenges for the research community. Past land use has a definite effect on future ecosystems, but it is challenging to predict future...

  7. Land use change impacts on floods at the catchment scale: Challenges and opportunities for future research

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rogger, M.; Agnoletti, M.; Alaoui, A.; Bathurst, J. C.; Bodner, G.; Borga, M.; Chaplot, V.; Gallart, F.; Glatzel, G.; Hall, J.; Holden, J.; Holko, L.; Horn, R.; Kiss, A.; Kohnová, S.; Leitinger, G.; Lennartz, B.; Parajka, J.; Perdigão, R.; Peth, S.; Plavcová, L.; Quinton, J. N.; Robinson, M.; Salinas, J. L.; Santoro, A.; Szolgay, J.; Tron, S.; van den Akker, J. J. H.; Viglione, A.; Blöschl, G.

    2017-07-01

    Research gaps in understanding flood changes at the catchment scale caused by changes in forest management, agricultural practices, artificial drainage, and terracing are identified. Potential strategies in addressing these gaps are proposed, such as complex systems approaches to link processes across time scales, long-term experiments on physical-chemical-biological process interactions, and a focus on connectivity and patterns across spatial scales. It is suggested that these strategies will stimulate new research that coherently addresses the issues across hydrology, soil and agricultural sciences, forest engineering, forest ecology, and geomorphology.

  8. Land use change impacts on floods at the catchment scale: Challenges and opportunities for future research

    PubMed Central

    Agnoletti, M.; Alaoui, A.; Bathurst, J. C.; Bodner, G.; Borga, M.; Chaplot, V.; Gallart, F.; Glatzel, G.; Hall, J.; Holden, J.; Holko, L.; Horn, R.; Kiss, A.; Kohnová, S.; Leitinger, G.; Lennartz, B.; Parajka, J.; Perdigão, R.; Peth, S.; Plavcová, L.; Quinton, J. N.; Robinson, M.; Salinas, J. L.; Santoro, A.; Szolgay, J.; Tron, S.; van den Akker, J. J. H.; Viglione, A.; Blöschl, G.

    2017-01-01

    Abstract Research gaps in understanding flood changes at the catchment scale caused by changes in forest management, agricultural practices, artificial drainage, and terracing are identified. Potential strategies in addressing these gaps are proposed, such as complex systems approaches to link processes across time scales, long‐term experiments on physical‐chemical‐biological process interactions, and a focus on connectivity and patterns across spatial scales. It is suggested that these strategies will stimulate new research that coherently addresses the issues across hydrology, soil and agricultural sciences, forest engineering, forest ecology, and geomorphology. PMID:28919651

  9. Debris flow hazards in plantation forests in New Zealand: what we know and need to know

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Phillips, Chris; Basher, Les; Marden, Michael; Harrison, Duncan; Heaphy, Marie

    2015-04-01

    In recent years, extensive storm-induced landsliding has mobilised woody residue during or after plantation forest harvesting and caused debris flows that have affected houses, roads and bridges downstream of forests in several parts of New Zealand. In part, this relates to increasing levels of harvesting activity as many plantations originally planted for soil conservation purposes have reached merchantable size but could also be in response to an increasing incidence of high intensity storms affecting parts of New Zealand. In several cases these incidents have featured on national television and in newspaper headlines with members of the public complaining about the consequences of forestry operations on steep erodible hill country. Forestry companies have responded by developing more detailed environmental impact assessment and erosion and sediment control planning approaches, and by assisting with clean-up operations. Similarly regional councils (the regulatory bodies) have looked more closely at the environmental impacts of forest harvesting and some have modified erosion and sediment control guidelines, previously largely applied to urban earthworks, for forestry application. As part of a wider research programme that aims to raise the profitability and improve the sustainability of New Zealand's forestry sector, we collected information from both forestry companies and regional and unitary councils via survey and interviews to determine the size and scope of the issue, how individual forest companies were identifying and managing the risk, and to determine if national threshold conditions or standards could be established. Even with risk management and good management practices in place, it will not be possible to entirely avoid slope failures and debris flows following harvesting in the future. Thus the need to determine a national level of understanding of what can and can't be managed for is important to allow the development of risk management approaches that all parties can agree with. This paper reports preliminary survey results and discusses company-, regional-, and national-level approaches to begin to address how this issue might be approached in the future on steep eroding hill country in New Zealand.

  10. Risk and Cooperation: Managing Hazardous Fuel in Mixed Ownership Landscapes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fischer, A. Paige; Charnley, Susan

    2012-06-01

    Managing natural processes at the landscape scale to promote forest health is important, especially in the case of wildfire, where the ability of a landowner to protect his or her individual parcel is constrained by conditions on neighboring ownerships. However, management at a landscape scale is also challenging because it requires cooperation on plans and actions that cross ownership boundaries. Cooperation depends on people's beliefs and norms about reciprocity and perceptions of the risks and benefits of interacting with others. Using logistic regression tests on mail survey data and qualitative analysis of interviews with landowners, we examined the relationship between perceived wildfire risk and cooperation in the management of hazardous fuel by nonindustrial private forest (NIPF) owners in fire-prone landscapes of eastern Oregon. We found that NIPF owners who perceived a risk of wildfire to their properties, and perceived that conditions on nearby public forestlands contributed to this risk, were more likely to have cooperated with public agencies in the past to reduce fire risk than owners who did not perceive a risk of wildfire to their properties. Wildfire risk perception was not associated with past cooperation among NIPF owners. The greater social barriers to private-private cooperation than to private-public cooperation, and perceptions of more hazardous conditions on public compared with private forestlands may explain this difference. Owners expressed a strong willingness to cooperate with others in future cross-boundary efforts to reduce fire risk, however. We explore barriers to cooperative forest management across ownerships, and identify models of cooperation that hold potential for future collective action to reduce wildfire risk.

  11. Risk and cooperation: managing hazardous fuel in mixed ownership landscapes.

    PubMed

    Fischer, A Paige; Charnley, Susan

    2012-06-01

    Managing natural processes at the landscape scale to promote forest health is important, especially in the case of wildfire, where the ability of a landowner to protect his or her individual parcel is constrained by conditions on neighboring ownerships. However, management at a landscape scale is also challenging because it requires cooperation on plans and actions that cross ownership boundaries. Cooperation depends on people's beliefs and norms about reciprocity and perceptions of the risks and benefits of interacting with others. Using logistic regression tests on mail survey data and qualitative analysis of interviews with landowners, we examined the relationship between perceived wildfire risk and cooperation in the management of hazardous fuel by nonindustrial private forest (NIPF) owners in fire-prone landscapes of eastern Oregon. We found that NIPF owners who perceived a risk of wildfire to their properties, and perceived that conditions on nearby public forestlands contributed to this risk, were more likely to have cooperated with public agencies in the past to reduce fire risk than owners who did not perceive a risk of wildfire to their properties. Wildfire risk perception was not associated with past cooperation among NIPF owners. The greater social barriers to private-private cooperation than to private-public cooperation, and perceptions of more hazardous conditions on public compared with private forestlands may explain this difference. Owners expressed a strong willingness to cooperate with others in future cross-boundary efforts to reduce fire risk, however. We explore barriers to cooperative forest management across ownerships, and identify models of cooperation that hold potential for future collective action to reduce wildfire risk.

  12. Canada lynx Lynx canadensis habitat and forest succession in northern Maine, USA

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hoving, C.L.; Harrison, D.J.; Krohn, W.B.; Jakubas, W.J.; McCollough, M.A.

    2004-01-01

    The contiguous United States population of Canada lynx Lynx canadensis was listed as threatened in 2000. The long-term viability of lynx populations at the southern edge of their geographic range has been hypothesized to be dependent on old growth forests; however, lynx are a specialist predator on snowshoe hare Lepus americanus, a species associated with early-successional forests. To quantify the effects of succession and forest management on landscape-scale (100 km2) patterns of habitat occupancy by lynx, we compared landscape attributes in northern Maine, USA, where lynx had been detected on snow track surveys to landscape attributes where surveys had been conducted, but lynx tracks had not been detected. Models were constructed a priori and compared using logistic regression and Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC), which quantitatively balances data fit and parsimony. In the models with the lowest (i.e. best) AIC, lynx were more likely to occur in landscapes with much regenerating forest, and less likely to occur in landscapes with much recent clearcut, partial harvest and forested wetland. Lynx were not associated positively or negatively with mature coniferous forest. A probabilistic map of the model indicated a patchy distribution of lynx habitat in northern Maine. According to an additional survey of the study area for lynx tracks during the winter of 2003, the model correctly classified 63.5% of the lynx occurrences and absences. Lynx were more closely associated with young forests than mature forests; however, old-growth forests were functionally absent from the landscape. Lynx habitat could be reduced in northern Maine, given recent trends in forest management practices. Harvest strategies have shifted from clearcutting to partial harvesting. If this trend continues, future landscapes will shift away from extensive regenerating forests and toward landscapes dominated by pole-sized and larger stands. Because Maine presently supports the only verified populations of this federally threatened species in the eastern United States, changes in forest management practices could affect recovery efforts throughout that region.

  13. Impacts of extreme weather events and climate variability on carbon exchanges in an age-sequence of managed temperate pine forests from 2003 to 201

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arain, M. A.

    2017-12-01

    North American temperate forests are a critical component of the global carbon cycle and regional water resources. A large portion of these forests has traditionally been managed for timber production and other uses. The response of these forests, which are in different stages of development, to extreme weather events such as drought and heat stresses, climate variability and management regimes is not fully understood. In this study, eddy covariance flux measurements in an age sequence (77-, 42-, and 14-years old as of 2016) of white pine (Pinus strobus L.) plantation forests in southern Ontario, Canada are examined to determine the impact of heat and drought stresses and climate variability over a 14 year period (2003 to 2016). The mean annual net ecosystem productivity (NEP) values were 195 ± 87, 512 ±161 and 103 ± 103 g C m-2 year-1 in 77-, 42- and 14-year-old forests respectively, over the study period. The youngest forest became a net carbon sink in the fifth year of its growth. Air temperature was a dominant control on carbon fluxes and heat stress reduced photosynthesis much more as compared to ecosystem respiration in the growing season. A large decrease in annual NEP was observed during years experiencing heat waves. Drought stress had the strongest impact on the middle age forest which had the largest carbon sink and water demand. In contrast, young forest was more sensitive to heat stress, than drought. Severity of heat and drought stress impacts was highly dependent on the timing of these events. Simultaneous occurrence of heat and drought stress in the early growing season such as in 2012 and 2016 had a drastic negative impact on carbon balance in these forests due to plant-soil-atmosphere feedbacks. Future research should consider the timing of the extreme events, the stage of forest development and effects of extreme events on component fluxes. This research helps to assess the vulnerability of managed forests and their ecological and hydrological responses to climate change and extreme weather events.

  14. Understanding the dynamics in distribution of invasive alien plant species under predicted climate change in Western Himalaya

    PubMed Central

    Chitale, Vishwas; Rijal, Srijana Joshi; Bisht, Neha; Shrestha, Bharat Babu

    2018-01-01

    Invasive alien plant species (IAPS) can pose severe threats to biodiversity and stability of native ecosystems, therefore, predicting the distribution of the IAPS plays a crucial role in effective planning and management of ecosystems. In the present study, we use Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) modelling approach to predict the potential of distribution of eleven IAPS under future climatic conditions under RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 in part of Kailash sacred landscape region in Western Himalaya. Based on the model predictions, distribution of most of these invasive plants is expected to expand under future climatic scenarios, which might pose a serious threat to the native ecosystems through competition for resources in the study area. Native scrublands and subtropical needle-leaved forests will be the most affected ecosystems by the expansion of these IAPS. The present study is first of its kind in the Kailash Sacred Landscape in the field of invasive plants and the predictions of potential distribution under future climatic conditions from our study could help decision makers in planning and managing these forest ecosystems effectively. PMID:29664961

  15. Understanding the dynamics in distribution of invasive alien plant species under predicted climate change in Western Himalaya.

    PubMed

    Thapa, Sunil; Chitale, Vishwas; Rijal, Srijana Joshi; Bisht, Neha; Shrestha, Bharat Babu

    2018-01-01

    Invasive alien plant species (IAPS) can pose severe threats to biodiversity and stability of native ecosystems, therefore, predicting the distribution of the IAPS plays a crucial role in effective planning and management of ecosystems. In the present study, we use Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) modelling approach to predict the potential of distribution of eleven IAPS under future climatic conditions under RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 in part of Kailash sacred landscape region in Western Himalaya. Based on the model predictions, distribution of most of these invasive plants is expected to expand under future climatic scenarios, which might pose a serious threat to the native ecosystems through competition for resources in the study area. Native scrublands and subtropical needle-leaved forests will be the most affected ecosystems by the expansion of these IAPS. The present study is first of its kind in the Kailash Sacred Landscape in the field of invasive plants and the predictions of potential distribution under future climatic conditions from our study could help decision makers in planning and managing these forest ecosystems effectively.

  16. Saproxylic and non-saproxylic beetle assemblages in boreal spruce forests of different age and forestry intensity.

    PubMed

    Stenbacka, Fredrik; Hjältén, Joakim; Hilszczański, Jacek; Dynesius, Mats

    2010-12-01

    Current clear-cutting forestry practices affect many boreal organisms negatively, and those dependent on dead wood (saproxylics) are considered as particularly vulnerable. The succession of species assemblages in managed forest habitats regenerating after clear-cutting is, however, poorly known. We compared beetle assemblages in three successional stages of managed boreal spruce forests established after clear-cutting and two types of older spruce forests that had not been clear-cut. We also assessed whether saproxylic and non-saproxylic beetle assemblages show similar biodiversity patterns among these forest types. Beetles were collected in window traps in nine study areas, each encompassing a protected old-growth forest (mean forest age approximately 160 years, mean dead wood volume 34 m3/ha), an unprotected mature forest (approximately 120 years old, 15 m3/ha), a middle-aged commercially thinned forest (53 years old, 3 m3/ha), a young unthinned forest (30 years old, 4 m3/ha), and a clearcut (5-7 years after harvest, 11 m3/ha). Saproxylic beetles, in particular red-listed species, were more abundant and more species rich in older forest types, whereas no significant differences among forest types in these variables were detected for non-saproxylics. The saproxylic assemblages were clearly differentiated; with increasing forest age, assemblage compositions gradually became more similar to those of protected old-growth forests, but the assemblage composition in thinned forests could not be statistically distinguished from those of the two oldest forest types. Many saproxylic beetles adapted to late-successional stages were present in thinned middle-aged forests but absent from younger unthinned forests. In contrast, non-saproxylics were generally more evenly distributed among the five forest types, and the assemblages were mainly differentiated between clearcuts and forested habitats. The saproxylic beetle assemblages of unprotected mature forests were very similar to those of protected old-growth forests. This indicates a relatively high conservation value of mature boreal forests currently subjected to clear-cutting and raises the question of whether future mature forests will have the same qualities. Our results suggest a high beetle conservation potential of developing managed forests, provided that sufficient amounts and qualities of dead wood are made available (e.g., during thinning operations). Confirming studies of beetle reproduction in dead wood introduced during thinning are, however, lacking.

  17. Stress in mangrove forests: early detection and preemptive rehabilitation are essential for future successful worldwide mangrove forest management

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lewis, Roy R; Milbrandt, Eric C; Brown, Benjamin; Krauss, Ken W.; Rovai, Andre S.; Beever, James W.; Flynn, Laura L

    2016-01-01

    Mangrove forest rehabilitation should begin much sooner than at the point of catastrophic loss. We describe the need for “mangrove forest heart attack prevention”, and how that might be accomplished in a general sense by embedding plot and remote sensing monitoring within coastal management plans. The major cause of mangrove stress at many sites globally is often linked to reduced tidal flows and exchanges. Blocked water flows can reduce flushing not only from the seaward side, but also result in higher salinity and reduced sediments when flows are blocked landward. Long-term degradation of function leads to acute mortality prompted by acute events, but created by a systematic propensity for long-term neglect of mangroves. Often, mangroves are lost within a few years; however, vulnerability is re-set decades earlier when seemingly innocuous hydrological modifications are made (e.g., road construction, blocked tidal channels), but which remain undetected without reasonable large-scale monitoring.

  18. Estimating Damage Cost of Net Primary Production due to Climate Change and Ozone(O3) Effect

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Park, J. H.; Lee, D. K.; Park, C.; Sung, S.; Kim, H. G.; Mo, Y.; Kim, S.; Kil, S.

    2016-12-01

    Forests are absorbing and storing carbon dioxide (CO2) through photosynthesis. The forests are not only preventing global warming but also influencing temperature, precipitation and humidity (Costanza et al., 1997; de Groot et al., 2002). Also the forests are recognized as a carbon sink internationally (van Kooten, 2009). The Korean Government supports the economic activity such as carbon offset projects in accordance with 'ACT ON THE MANAGEMENT AND IMPROVEMENT OF CARBON SINK' Article27 (Korea Forest Service, 2013) and aims to make a policy which improves the CO2 capacity of forest for Paris Agreement discussed in UNFCCC COP21, December 2015 (Korea Forest Service, 2015). However, the social-economic activities make to increase aerosols as well as greenhouse gases significantly since the industrial revolution, as a result, the chemical composition of the atmosphere has changed significantly. According to the resent studies, not only CO2 but atmospheric chemistries such as ozone (O3), aerosol and black carbon can be an important factor causing climate change (Hansen et al., 2007; IPCC, 2007). In the past, acid rain affected on forest, but in these days, O3, nitrogen oxide (NOX) and sulfur oxide (SOX) are the most threatening factors on forest ecosystem (Lee et al, 2011). In particular, O3accounts for most of the photochemical products and causes a direct significant impact or damage on the plant because of high toxicity (Han et al., 2006). The research questions of this study are "How does O3 effects on forest productivity in the present and future? " What is the damage cost by the O3 effect in the future? In this study, we developed a statistical model using the parameters which effect on the forest productivity. We estimated the forest productivity using on the derived model in the present and future on a SSP scenarios. Lastly, we evaluated the economic effect or damage cost of O3effect by introducing the concept of climate insurance. The average forest productivity, net primary productivity (NPP), in Korea is about 622 gC/m2/yr in the results. And the result shows that NPP decreases about 2.3% by O3 negative effect. The NPP in the future also decreases about 1-2% and the negative effect of O3 is similar. Finally, damage cost by O3 in the future is bigger than damage by climate change.

  19. The legacy of logging--estimating arboreal lichen occurrence in a boreal multiple-use landscape on a two century scale.

    PubMed

    Horstkotte, Tim; Moen, Jon; Lämås, Tomas; Helle, Timo

    2011-01-01

    In northern Sweden, the availability of arboreal lichens (Bryoria fuscescens, Alectoria sarmentosa) as winter grazing resources is an important element in reindeer husbandry. With the industrialization of forestry, forests rich in arboreal lichens have diminished considerably. Here, we analyze how forestry has impacted lichen availability from the 1920's to the present day and model its future development assuming different forest management scenarios.We recorded the current occurrence of B. fuscescens in 144 sampling plots, stratified by forest age class and dominant tree species in a 26,600 ha boreal forest landscape that is used for both reindeer herding and forestry. Lichen abundance was visually estimated in four classes: none, sparse, moderate and abundant. A binary logistic model using forest age as the independent variable was developed to predict the probability of lichens being present. Using this model, we found that lichens were present in stands that are at least 63 years old. Because of the relative paucity of stands rich in arboreal lichens, it was not possible to reliably determine how age affects the variation in abundance of older forest stands. The historical development of forests where arboreal lichens could potentially occur was studied using historic forestry records dating back 80 years. Between 1926 and the present day, forestry has reduced the cover of forests older than 60 years from 84% to 34%. The likely future spatial coverage of these stands over the next 120 years was estimated for two different management scenarios and an unmanaged reference scenario, using the Heureka strategic planning program. Under both the "business as usual" scenario and that involving more intensive forestry, continued decreases in lichen availability are projected. Our results emphasize the importance of alternative forestry practices, such as prolonged rotation periods, to increase the availability of arboreal lichens as a grazing resource for reindeer.

  20. An expert-based approach to forest road network planning by combining Delphi and spatial multi-criteria evaluation.

    PubMed

    Hayati, Elyas; Majnounian, Baris; Abdi, Ehsan; Sessions, John; Makhdoum, Majid

    2013-02-01

    Changes in forest landscapes resulting from road construction have increased remarkably in the last few years. On the other hand, the sustainable management of forest resources can only be achieved through a well-organized road network. In order to minimize the environmental impacts of forest roads, forest road managers must design the road network efficiently and environmentally as well. Efficient planning methodologies can assist forest road managers in considering the technical, economic, and environmental factors that affect forest road planning. This paper describes a three-stage methodology using the Delphi method for selecting the important criteria, the Analytic Hierarchy Process for obtaining the relative importance of the criteria, and finally, a spatial multi-criteria evaluation in a geographic information system (GIS) environment for identifying the lowest-impact road network alternative. Results of the Delphi method revealed that ground slope, lithology, distance from stream network, distance from faults, landslide susceptibility, erosion susceptibility, geology, and soil texture are the most important criteria for forest road planning in the study area. The suitability map for road planning was then obtained by combining the fuzzy map layers of these criteria with respect to their weights. Nine road network alternatives were designed using PEGGER, an ArcView GIS extension, and finally, their values were extracted from the suitability map. Results showed that the methodology was useful for identifying road that met environmental and cost considerations. Based on this work, we suggest future work in forest road planning using multi-criteria evaluation and decision making be considered in other regions and that the road planning criteria identified in this study may be useful.

  1. Quantifying the fire regime distributions for severity in Yosemite National Park, California, USA

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Thode, Andrea E.; van Wagtendonk, Jan W.; Miller, Jay D.; Quinn, James F.

    2011-01-01

    This paper quantifies current fire severity distributions for 19 different fire-regime types in Yosemite National Park, California, USA. Landsat Thematic Mapper remote sensing data are used to map burn severity for 99 fires (cumulatively over 97 000 ha) that burned in Yosemite over a 20-year period. These maps are used to quantify the frequency distributions of fire severity by fire-regime type. A classification is created for the resultant distributions and they are discussed within the context of four vegetation zones: the foothill shrub and woodland zone; the lower montane forest zone; the upper montane forest zone and the subalpine forest zone. The severity distributions can form a building block from which to discuss current fire regimes across the Sierra Nevada in California. This work establishes a framework for comparing the effects of current fires on our landscapes with our notions of how fires historically burned, and how current fire severity distributions differ from our desired future conditions. As this process is refined, a new set of information will be available to researchers and land managers to help understand how fire regimes have changed from the past and how we might attempt to manage them in the future.

  2. Thirty-Eight Years of Autogenic, Woody Understory Dynamics in a Mature, Temperate Pine-Oak Forest

    Treesearch

    Michael D. Cain; Michael G. Shelton

    1997-01-01

    In 1935, 32 ha of a pine-hardwood forest were set aside from future timber management in southern Arkansas, U.S.A. Old-growth timber had been cut to a 36-cm stump diameter before 1915. Between 1952 and 1993, four inventories were made of the overstory and midstory components (number of live trees 29 cm in diameter breast height (DBH) taken at 1.37 m, by 2.54-cm DBH...

  3. The yield of Douglas-fir in the Pacific Northwest measured by international 1/4-inch kerf log rule.

    Treesearch

    Philip A. Briegleb

    1948-01-01

    The international log rule is little used in the Douglas-fir region today, but it is likely to find wider use here in the future. This is the opinion of a number of foresters preparing plans for the management of forest properties in the region. Advantage of the International 1/4-inch kerf log rule is that log scale by this measure approximates the volume of green...

  4. Chapter 9: Understanding our changing public values, resource uses, and engagement processes and practices

    Treesearch

    Lee K. Cerveny; Emily Jane Davis; Rebecca McLain; Clare M. Ryan; Debra R. Whitall; Eric M. White

    2018-01-01

    The Northwest Forest Plan (NWFP, or Plan) signified a movement away from intensive focus on timber management that was common through the 1980s and toward an ecosystem management approach, which aims to conserve ecological conditions and restore natural resources while meeting the social, cultural, and economic needs of present and future generations (Brussard et al....

  5. Reburn severity in managed and unmanaged vegetation in a large wildfire.

    Treesearch

    J.R. Thompson; T.A. Spies; L.M. Ganio

    2007-01-01

    Debate over the influence of postwildfire management on future fire severity is occurring in the absence of empirical studies. We used satellite data, government agency records, and aerial photography to examine a forest landscape in southwest Oregon that burned in 1987 and then was subject, in part, to salvage logging and conifer planting before it reburned during the...

  6. Primary screening of forestry herbicides for control of Chinese privet (Ligustrum sinense), Chinese wisteria (Wisteria sinensis), and trumpetcreeper (Campsis radicans) [Abstract

    Treesearch

    James H. Miller

    1998-01-01

    Exotic and native invasive plants increasingly hinder land management, use, and restoration projects. Chinese and Japanese privet are rapidly becoming major threats to future hardwood culture and currently hinder ROW management throughout the southeastern region. Chinese wisteria occurs as severe, dense isolated infestations in forest stands. Native trumpetcreeper can...

  7. Influence of mountain pine beetle epidemic on winter habitat conditions for Merriam's turkeys: Management implications for current and future condition

    Treesearch

    Chadwick P. Lehman; Mark A. Rumble; Michael A. Battaglia; Todd R. Mills; Lance A. Asherin

    2016-01-01

    Understanding response of ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) forest development following a mountain pine beetle (MPB; Dendroctonus ponderosae) epidemic has important management implications for winter habitat conditions for Merriam’s wild turkeys (Meleagris gallopavo merriami; hereafter, turkeys). Therefore, we quantified habitat changes over time for turkeys...

  8. Mapping discourses using Q methodology in Matang Mangrove Forest, Malaysia.

    PubMed

    Hugé, Jean; Vande Velde, Katherine; Benitez-Capistros, Francisco; Japay, Jan Harold; Satyanarayana, Behara; Nazrin Ishak, Mohammad; Quispe-Zuniga, Melissa; Mohd Lokman, Bin Husain; Sulong, Ibrahim; Koedam, Nico; Dahdouh-Guebas, Farid

    2016-12-01

    The sustainable management of natural resources requires the consideration of multiple stakeholders' perspectives and knowledge claims, in order to inform complex and possibly contentious decision-making dilemmas. Hence, a better understanding of why people in particular contexts do manage natural resources in a particular way is needed. Focusing on mangroves, highly productive tropical intertidal forests, this study's first aim is to map the diversity of subjective viewpoints among a range of stakeholders on the management of Matang Mangrove Forest in peninsular Malaysia. Secondly, this study aims to feed the reflection on the possible consequences of the diversity of perspectives for the future management of mangroves in Malaysia and beyond. The use of the semi-quantitative Q methodology allowed us to identify three main discourses on mangrove management: i. the optimization discourse, stressing the need to improve the current overall satisfactory management regime; ii. the 'change for the better' discourse, which focuses on increasingly participatory management and on ecotourism; and iii. the conservative 'business as usual' discourse. The existence of common points of connection between the discourses and their respective supporters provides opportunities for modifications of mangrove management regimes. Acknowledging this diversity of viewpoints, reflecting how different stakeholders see and talk about mangrove management, highlights the need to develop pro-active and resilient natural resource management approaches. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Harvesting interacts with climate change to affect future habitat quality of a focal species in eastern Canada’s boreal forest

    PubMed Central

    Boulanger, Yan; Cyr, Dominic; Taylor, Anthony R.; Price, David T.; St-Laurent, Martin-Hugues

    2018-01-01

    Many studies project future bird ranges by relying on correlative species distribution models. Such models do not usually represent important processes explicitly related to climate change and harvesting, which limits their potential for predicting and understanding the future of boreal bird assemblages at the landscape scale. In this study, we attempted to assess the cumulative and specific impacts of both harvesting and climate-induced changes on wildfires and stand-level processes (e.g., reproduction, growth) in the boreal forest of eastern Canada. The projected changes in these landscape- and stand-scale processes (referred to as “drivers of change”) were then assessed for their impacts on future habitats and potential productivity of black-backed woodpecker (BBWO; Picoides arcticus), a focal species representative of deadwood and old-growth biodiversity in eastern Canada. Forest attributes were simulated using a forest landscape model, LANDIS-II, and were used to infer future landscape suitability to BBWO under three anthropogenic climate forcing scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5), compared to the historical baseline. We found climate change is likely to be detrimental for BBWO, with up to 92% decline in potential productivity under the worst-case climate forcing scenario (RCP 8.5). However, large declines were also projected under baseline climate, underlining the importance of harvest in determining future BBWO productivity. Present-day harvesting practices were the single most important cause of declining areas of old-growth coniferous forest, and hence appeared as the single most important driver of future BBWO productivity, regardless of the climate scenario. Climate-induced increases in fire activity would further promote young, deciduous stands at the expense of old-growth coniferous stands. This suggests that the biodiversity associated with deadwood and old-growth boreal forests may be greatly altered by the cumulative impacts of natural and anthropogenic disturbances under a changing climate. Management adaptations, including reduced harvesting levels and strategies to promote coniferous species content, may help mitigate these cumulative impacts. PMID:29414989

  10. Harvesting interacts with climate change to affect future habitat quality of a focal species in eastern Canada's boreal forest.

    PubMed

    Tremblay, Junior A; Boulanger, Yan; Cyr, Dominic; Taylor, Anthony R; Price, David T; St-Laurent, Martin-Hugues

    2018-01-01

    Many studies project future bird ranges by relying on correlative species distribution models. Such models do not usually represent important processes explicitly related to climate change and harvesting, which limits their potential for predicting and understanding the future of boreal bird assemblages at the landscape scale. In this study, we attempted to assess the cumulative and specific impacts of both harvesting and climate-induced changes on wildfires and stand-level processes (e.g., reproduction, growth) in the boreal forest of eastern Canada. The projected changes in these landscape- and stand-scale processes (referred to as "drivers of change") were then assessed for their impacts on future habitats and potential productivity of black-backed woodpecker (BBWO; Picoides arcticus), a focal species representative of deadwood and old-growth biodiversity in eastern Canada. Forest attributes were simulated using a forest landscape model, LANDIS-II, and were used to infer future landscape suitability to BBWO under three anthropogenic climate forcing scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5), compared to the historical baseline. We found climate change is likely to be detrimental for BBWO, with up to 92% decline in potential productivity under the worst-case climate forcing scenario (RCP 8.5). However, large declines were also projected under baseline climate, underlining the importance of harvest in determining future BBWO productivity. Present-day harvesting practices were the single most important cause of declining areas of old-growth coniferous forest, and hence appeared as the single most important driver of future BBWO productivity, regardless of the climate scenario. Climate-induced increases in fire activity would further promote young, deciduous stands at the expense of old-growth coniferous stands. This suggests that the biodiversity associated with deadwood and old-growth boreal forests may be greatly altered by the cumulative impacts of natural and anthropogenic disturbances under a changing climate. Management adaptations, including reduced harvesting levels and strategies to promote coniferous species content, may help mitigate these cumulative impacts.

  11. Effectiveness of mechanical thinning and prescribed burning on fire behavior in Pinus nigra forests in NE Spain.

    PubMed

    Piqué, Míriam; Domènech, Rut

    2018-03-15

    Fuel treatments can mitigate present and future impacts of climate change by reducing fire intensity and severity. In recent years, Pinus nigra forests in the Mediterranean basin have been dramatically affected by the new risk of highly intense and extreme fires and its distribution area has been reduced. New tools are necessary for assessing the management of these forests so they can adapt to the challenges to come. Our main goal was to evaluate the effects of different fuel treatments on Mediterranean Pinus nigra forests. We assessed the forest response, in terms of forest structure and fire behavior, to different intensities of low thinning treatments followed by different slash prescriptions (resulting in: light thinning and lop and scatter; light thinning and burn; heavy thinning and lop and scatter; heavy thinning and burn; and, untreated control). Treatments that used fire to decrease the resulting slash were the most effective for reducing active crown fires decreasing the rate of spread and flame length more than 89%. Low thinning had an effect on torching potential, but there was no difference between intensities of thinning. Only an outcoming crown fire could spread actively if it was sustained by a high-enough constant wind speed and enough surface fuel load. Overall, treatments reduce fire intensity and treated areas have a more homogenous fire behavior response than untreated areas. This provides opportunities to extinguish the fire and reduce the probability of trees dying from the fire. It would be helpful to include ecological principles and fire behavior criteria in silvicultural treatment guidelines in order to perform more efficient management techniques in the future. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. Comparing Effects of Climate Warming, Fire, and Timber Harvesting on a Boreal Forest Landscape in Northeastern China

    PubMed Central

    Li, Xiaona; He, Hong S.; Wu, Zhiwei; Liang, Yu; Schneiderman, Jeffrey E.

    2013-01-01

    Forest management under a changing climate requires assessing the effects of climate warming and disturbance on the composition, age structure, and spatial patterns of tree species. We investigated these effects on a boreal forest in northeastern China using a factorial experimental design and simulation modeling. We used a spatially explicit forest landscape model (LANDIS) to evaluate the effects of three independent variables: climate (current and expected future), fire regime (current and increased fire), and timber harvesting (no harvest and legal harvest). Simulations indicate that this forested landscape would be significantly impacted under a changing climate. Climate warming would significantly increase the abundance of most trees, especially broadleaf species (aspen, poplar, and willow). However, climate warming would have less impact on the abundance of conifers, diversity of forest age structure, and variation in spatial landscape structure than burning and harvesting. Burning was the predominant influence in the abundance of conifers except larch and the abundance of trees in mid-stage. Harvesting impacts were greatest for the abundance of larch and birch, and the abundance of trees during establishment stage (1–40 years), early stage (41–80 years) and old- growth stage (>180 years). Disturbance by timber harvesting and burning may significantly alter forest ecosystem dynamics by increasing forest fragmentation and decreasing forest diversity. Results from the simulations provide insight into the long term management of this boreal forest. PMID:23573209

  13. The historical disturbance regime of mountain Norway spruce forests in the Western Carpathians and its influence on current forest structure and composition.

    PubMed

    Janda, Pavel; Trotsiuk, Volodymyr; Mikoláš, Martin; Bače, Radek; Nagel, Thomas A; Seidl, Rupert; Seedre, Meelis; Morrissey, Robert C; Kucbel, Stanislav; Jaloviar, Peter; Jasík, Marián; Vysoký, Juraj; Šamonil, Pavel; Čada, Vojtěch; Mrhalová, Hana; Lábusová, Jana; Nováková, Markéta H; Rydval, Miloš; Matějů, Lenka; Svoboda, Miroslav

    2017-03-15

    In order to gauge ongoing and future changes to disturbance regimes, it is necessary to establish a solid baseline of historic disturbance patterns against which to evaluate these changes. Further, understanding how forest structure and composition respond to variation in past disturbances may provide insight into future resilience to climate-driven alterations of disturbance regimes. We established 184 plots (mostly 1000 m 2 ) in 14 primary mountain Norway spruce forests in the Western Carpathians. On each plot we surveyed live and dead trees and regeneration, and cored around 25 canopy trees. Disturbance history was reconstructed by examining individual tree growth trends. The study plots were further aggregated into five groups based on disturbance history (severity and timing) to evaluate and explain its influence on forest structure. These ecosystems are characterized by a mixed severity disturbance regime with high spatiotemporal variability in severity and frequency. However, periods of synchrony in disturbance activity were also found. Specifically, a peak of canopy disturbance was found for the mid-19th century across the region (about 60% of trees established), with the most important periods of disturbance in the 1820s and from the 1840s to the 1870s. Current stand size and age structure were strongly influenced by past disturbance activity. In contrast, past disturbances did not have a significant effect on current tree density, the amount of coarse woody debris, and regeneration. High mean densities of regeneration with height >50 cm (about 1400 individuals per ha) were observed. Extensive high severity disturbances have recently affected Central European forests, spurring a discussion about the causes and consequences. We found some evidence that forests in the Western Carpathians were predisposed to recent severe disturbance events as a result of synchronized past disturbance activity, which partly homogenized size and age structure and made recent stands more vulnerable to bark beetle outbreak. Our data suggest that these events are still part of the range of natural variability. The finding that regeneration density and volume of coarse woody debris were not influenced by past disturbance illustrates that vastly different past disturbance histories are not likely to change the future trajectories of these forests. These ecosystems currently have high ecological resilience to disturbance. In conclusion, we suggest that management should recognize disturbances as a natural part of ecosystem dynamics in the mountain forests of Central Europe, account for their stochastic occurrence in management planning, and mimic their patterns to foster biodiversity in forest landscapes.

  14. Changing climate, changing forests: the impacts of climate change on forests of the northeastern United States and eastern Canada

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Rustad, Lindsey; Campbell, John; Dukes, Jeffrey S.; Huntington, Thomas; Lambert, Kathy Fallon; Mohan, Jacqueline; Rodenhouse, Nicholas

    2012-01-01

    Decades of study on climatic change and its direct and indirect effects on forest ecosystems provide important insights for forest science, management, and policy. A synthesis of recent research from the northeastern United States and eastern Canada shows that the climate of the region has become warmer and wetter over the past 100 years and that there are more extreme precipitation events. Greater change is projected in the future. The amount of projected future change depends on the emissions scenarios used. Tree species composition of northeast forests has shifted slowly in response to climate for thousands of years. However, current human-accelerated climate change is much more rapid and it is unclear how forests will respond to large changes in suitable habitat. Projections indicate significant declines in suitable habitat for spruce-fir forests and expansion of suitable habitat for oak-dominated forests. Productivity gains that might result from extended growing seasons and carbon dioxide and nitrogen fertilization may be offset by productivity losses associated with the disruption of species assemblages and concurrent stresses associated with potential increases in atmospheric deposition of pollutants, forest fragmentation, and nuisance species. Investigations of links to water and nutrient cycling suggest that changes in evapotranspiration, soil respiration, and mineralization rates could result in significant alterations of key ecosystem processes. Climate change affects the distribution and abundance of many wildlife species in the region through changes in habitat, food availability, thermal tolerances, species interactions such as competition, and susceptibility to parasites and disease. Birds are the most studied northeastern taxa. Twenty-seven of the 38 bird species for which we have adequate long-term records have expanded their ranges predominantly in a northward direction. There is some evidence to suggest that novel species, including pests and pathogens, may be more adept at adjusting to changing climatic conditions, enhancing their competitive ability relative to native species. With the accumulating evidence of climate change and its potential effects, forest stewardship efforts would benefit from integrating climate mitigation and adaptation options in conservation and management plans.

  15. Bio-Energy Retains Its Mitigation Potential Under Elevated CO2

    PubMed Central

    Bellassen, Valentin; Njakou Djomo, Sylvestre; Lukac, Martin; Calfapietra, Carlo; Janssens, Ivan A.; Hoosbeek, Marcel R.; Viovy, Nicolas; Churkina, Galina; Scarascia-Mugnozza, Giuseppe; Ceulemans, Reinhart

    2010-01-01

    Background If biofuels are to be a viable substitute for fossil fuels, it is essential that they retain their potential to mitigate climate change under future atmospheric conditions. Elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration [CO2] stimulates plant biomass production; however, the beneficial effects of increased production may be offset by higher energy costs in crop management. Methodology/Main Findings We maintained full size poplar short rotation coppice (SRC) systems under both current ambient and future elevated [CO2] (550 ppm) and estimated their net energy and greenhouse gas balance. We show that a poplar SRC system is energy efficient and produces more energy than required for coppice management. Even more, elevated [CO2] will increase the net energy production and greenhouse gas balance of a SRC system with 18%. Managing the trees in shorter rotation cycles (i.e., 2 year cycles instead of 3 year cycles) will further enhance the benefits from elevated [CO2] on both the net energy and greenhouse gas balance. Conclusions/Significance Adapting coppice management to the future atmospheric [CO2] is necessary to fully benefit from the climate mitigation potential of bio-energy systems. Further, a future increase in potential biomass production due to elevated [CO2] outweighs the increased production costs resulting in a northward extension of the area where SRC is greenhouse gas neutral. Currently, the main part of the European terrestrial carbon sink is found in forest biomass and attributed to harvesting less than the annual growth in wood. Because SRC is intensively managed, with a higher turnover in wood production than conventional forest, northward expansion of SRC is likely to erode the European terrestrial carbon sink. PMID:20657833

  16. Spatial variability in tree regeneration after wildfire delays and dampens future bark beetle outbreaks

    PubMed Central

    Donato, Daniel C.; Raffa, Kenneth F.; Turner, Monica G.

    2016-01-01

    Climate change is altering the frequency and severity of forest disturbances such as wildfires and bark beetle outbreaks, thereby increasing the potential for sequential disturbances to interact. Interactions can amplify or dampen disturbances, yet the direction and magnitude of future disturbance interactions are difficult to anticipate because underlying mechanisms remain poorly understood. We tested how variability in postfire forest development affects future susceptibility to bark beetle outbreaks, focusing on mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) and Douglas-fir beetle (Dendroctonus pseudotsugae) in forests regenerating from the large high-severity fires that affected Yellowstone National Park in Wyoming in 1988. We combined extensive field data on postfire tree regeneration with a well-tested simulation model to assess susceptibility to bark beetle outbreaks over 130 y of stand development. Despite originating from the same fire event, among-stand variation in forest structure was very high and remained considerable for over a century. Thus, simulated emergence of stands susceptible to bark beetles was not temporally synchronized but was protracted by several decades, compared with stand development from spatially homogeneous regeneration. Furthermore, because of fire-mediated variability in forest structure, the habitat connectivity required to support broad-scale outbreaks and amplifying cross-scale feedbacks did not develop until well into the second century after the initial burn. We conclude that variability in tree regeneration after disturbance can dampen and delay future disturbance by breaking spatiotemporal synchrony on the landscape. This highlights the importance of fostering landscape variability in the context of ecosystem management given changing disturbance regimes. PMID:27821739

  17. Spatial variability in tree regeneration after wildfire delays and dampens future bark beetle outbreaks.

    PubMed

    Seidl, Rupert; Donato, Daniel C; Raffa, Kenneth F; Turner, Monica G

    2016-11-15

    Climate change is altering the frequency and severity of forest disturbances such as wildfires and bark beetle outbreaks, thereby increasing the potential for sequential disturbances to interact. Interactions can amplify or dampen disturbances, yet the direction and magnitude of future disturbance interactions are difficult to anticipate because underlying mechanisms remain poorly understood. We tested how variability in postfire forest development affects future susceptibility to bark beetle outbreaks, focusing on mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) and Douglas-fir beetle (Dendroctonus pseudotsugae) in forests regenerating from the large high-severity fires that affected Yellowstone National Park in Wyoming in 1988. We combined extensive field data on postfire tree regeneration with a well-tested simulation model to assess susceptibility to bark beetle outbreaks over 130 y of stand development. Despite originating from the same fire event, among-stand variation in forest structure was very high and remained considerable for over a century. Thus, simulated emergence of stands susceptible to bark beetles was not temporally synchronized but was protracted by several decades, compared with stand development from spatially homogeneous regeneration. Furthermore, because of fire-mediated variability in forest structure, the habitat connectivity required to support broad-scale outbreaks and amplifying cross-scale feedbacks did not develop until well into the second century after the initial burn. We conclude that variability in tree regeneration after disturbance can dampen and delay future disturbance by breaking spatiotemporal synchrony on the landscape. This highlights the importance of fostering landscape variability in the context of ecosystem management given changing disturbance regimes.

  18. Detecting Evidence of Climate Change in the Forests of the Eastern United States

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jones, John W.; Osborne, Jesse D.

    2008-01-01

    Changes in land use or disturbances such as defoliation by insects, disease, or fire all affect the composition and amount of tree canopy in a forest. These changes are easy to detect. Noticing and understanding the complex ways that global or regional-scale climate change combines with these disturbances to affect forest growth patterns and succession is difficult. This is particularly true for regions where changes in climate are not the most extreme, such as the mid-latitude forests of the Eastern United States. If land and water resources are to be managed responsibly, it is important to know how well the impacts of climate change on these forests can be measured in order to provide the best information possible to respond to any future changes. The goal of this study is to test whether climate-induced changes in forests in the Eastern United States can be detected and characterized using satellite imagery.

  19. Habitat use by Swainson's Warblers in a managed bottomland forest

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Somershoe, S.G.; Hudman, S.P.; Chandler, C.R.

    2003-01-01

    The Swainson's Warbler (Limnothlypis swainsonii) is a locally distributed and relatively uncommon Neotropical migrant songbird that breeds in the bottomland forests of the southeastern United States and spends the nonbreeding season in the Caribbean Basin. Populations of Swainson's Warblers have declined during recent decades as bottomland forests have come under increasingly intensive management and large areas have been converted to other land uses. We examined the habitat around song perches used by male Swainson's Warblers at Big Hammock Wildlife Management Area, a managed bottomland forest along the Altamaha River in Tattnall County, Georgia. We quantified 20 features of habitat structure in areas occupied by Swainson's Warblers (occupied plots) and two sets of controls: unoccupied plots adjacent to occupied plots (adjacent control plots) and unoccupied plots throughout the management area (general control plots). Occupied plots and adjacent control plots both differed in structure from the general control plots. We detected no significant differences, however, in vegetation structure between occupied plots and adjacent control plots. General control plots tended to have a greater number of trees, greater basal area, and a complete canopy, whereas occupied and adjacent control plots had high densities of small stems, cane, herbaceous ground cover, and leaf litter; this latter pattern is typical of documented Swainson's Warbler breeding habitat. Lack of significant differences in vegetation structure may be due to great variation in habitat structure around song perches, small sample size, or scarcity of Swainson's Warblers. Future research should focus on quantifying habitat characteristics around nest sites, song perches, and feeding areas. Our results suggest that management of bottomland habitats by thinning forests and encouraging regeneration of canebrakes is needed for successful conservation of Swainson's Warblers.

  20. Integrating Nutrient Enrichment and Forest Management Experiments in Sweden to Constrain the Process-Based Land Surface Model ORCHIDEE

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Resovsky, A.; Luyssaert, S.; Guenet, B.; Peylin, P.; Lansø, A. S.; Vuichard, N.; Messina, P.; Smith, B.; Ryder, J.; Naudts, K.; Chen, Y.; Otto, J.; McGrath, M.; Valade, A.

    2017-12-01

    Understanding coupling between carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) cycling in forest ecosystems is key to predicting global change. Numerous experimental studies have demonstrated the positive response of stand-level photosynthesis and net primary production (NPP) to atmospheric CO2 enrichment, while N availability has been shown to exert an important control on the timing and magnitude of such responses. However, several factors complicate efforts to precisely represent ecosystem-level C and N cycling in the current generation of land surface models (LSMs), including sparse in-situ data, uncertainty with regard to key state variables and disregard for the effects of natural and anthropogenic forest management. In this study, we incorporate empirical data from N-fertilization experiments at two long-term manipulation sites in Sweden to improve the representation of C and N interaction in the ORCHIDEE land surface model. Our version of the model represents the union of two existing ORCHIDEE branches: 1) ORCHIDEE-CN, which resolves processes related to terrestrial C and N cycling, and 2) ORCHIDEE-CAN, which integrates a multi-layer canopy structure and includes representation of forest management practices. Using this new model branch (referred to as ORCHIDEE-CN-CAN), we aim to replicate the growth patterns of managed forests both with and without N limitations. Our hope is that the results, in combination with measurements of various ecosystem parameters (such as soil N) will facilitate LSM optimization, inform future model development, and reduce structural uncertainty in global change predictions.

  1. Factors associated with long-term species composition in dry tropical forests of Central India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Agarwala, M.; DeFries, R. S.; Qureshi, Q.; Jhala, Y. V.

    2016-10-01

    The long-term future of species composition in forests depends on regeneration. Many factors can affect regeneration, including human use, environmental conditions, and species’ traits. This study examines the influence of these factors in a tropical deciduous forest of Central India, which is heavily used by local, forest-dependent residents for livestock grazing, fuel-wood extraction, construction and other livelihood needs. We measure size-class proportions (the ratio of abundance of a species at a site in a higher size class to total abundance in both lower and higher size classes) for 39 tree species across 20 transects at different intensities of human use. The size-class proportions for medium to large trees and for small to medium-sized trees were negatively associated with species that are used for local construction, while size class proportions for saplings to small trees were positively associated with those species that are fire resistant and negatively associated with livestock density. Results indicate that grazing and fire prevent non-fire resistant species from reaching reproductive age, which can alter the long term composition and future availability of species that are important for local use and ecosystem services. Management efforts to reduce fire and forest grazing could reverse these impacts on long-term forest composition.

  2. Messages, limitations and future needs of research into environmental impacts and mitigating and remediation measures of oil palm and forest land-use and land management in SE Asia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Walsh, Rory; Bidin, Kawi; Nurhidayu, Siti; Nainar, Anand; Annammala, Kogilavani; Blake, William; Higton, Sam; Wall, Katy; Darling, Isabella

    2017-04-01

    Oil palm and forest logging land-uses have expanded immensely in recent decades in SE Asia and other parts of the humid tropics - and increasingly into steeplands where adverse biophysical in situ and downstream impacts are particularly severe. With a focus on recent and current projects in Sabah (Malaysian Borneo) and Peninsular Malaysia, this paper examines the changing nature of research foci and approaches of research projects to assess impacts and develop and test mitigation strategies. Early projects focussed on comparing slope- and catchment-scale hydrology and erosion of selectively logged forest and primary forest and on ways of reducing logging impacts. The second phase of research focussed increasingly on (1) longer-term recovery from logging and (2) the likely impacts of climate change. With repeat logging and conversion of areas of forest to oil palm (and conservation of remaining primary forest was secured), the focus of attention has moved to (1) assessing impacts of oil palm conversion and land management practices, (2) testing existing (and potentially more effective) Roundtable for Sustainable Palm Oil (RSPO) guidelines and Government Regulations aimed at reducing impacts and (3) developing and testing ways of restoring and rehabilitating forest within both badly degraded logged forest areas and largely oil palm landscapes - with attention focussed on the landscape scale, the long-term, downstream as well as in situ impacts and the more vulnerable steepland areas. Two multidisciplinary umbrella projects - the SAFE (Stability of Altered Forest Ecosystems) Project and the SEnSOR Programme - have formed the backbone of this latest phase. The SAFE Project is a ten-year programme assessing the effectiveness of retention of differing widths of riparian forest buffers and different- sized forest 'islands' within converted oil palm landscapes in reducing their adverse ecological, emissions, hydrological, erosional and water pollution impacts. The SEnSOR Programme is specifically testing the effectiveness of RSPO guidelines and possible improved land management measures. After a brief overview of some of the approaches and key findings of these studies, the paper focuses on some of the advantages, limitations and future needs of these studies. Important features of the projects are (1) the involvement of industry, Government and local people from the start in the projects, (2) the focus on the landscape scale and long-term (for example with use of current monitoring as well as a historical approach involving sediment dating and fingerprinting), (3) simultaneous consideration of impacts on a wide variety of environmental impacts, as impacts of land management practices can be beneficial to some but adverse to others. Key limitations and needs are then identified and discussed. The most important of these include how to reconcile the sometimes conflicting impacts of land management practices (and remedial measures) on different environmental parameters and concerns - what is good for Peter is sometimes very bad for Paul. A key need identified, therefore, is for methodologies to evaluate comparative environmental and socioeconomic benefits and costs of sometimes conflicting or alternative land management practices and options that emerge from usually separate scientific investigations of how to reduce impacts of, for example, soil erosion, landslide risk, streamwater pollution, atmospheric emissions, river ecology and landscape biodiversity (and its components). There is also a key need for involvement of social scientists in projects.

  3. Winter climate change and coastal wetland foundation species: salt marshes vs. mangrove forests in the southeastern United States

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Osland, Michael J.; Day, Richard H.; Doyle, Thomas W.; Enwright, Nicholas

    2013-01-01

    We live in an era of unprecedented ecological change in which ecologists and natural resource managers are increasingly challenged to anticipate and prepare for the ecological effects of future global change. In this study, we investigated the potential effect of winter climate change upon salt marsh and mangrove forest foundation species in the southeastern United States. Our research addresses the following three questions: (1) What is the relationship between winter climate and the presence and abundance of mangrove forests relative to salt marshes; (2) How vulnerable are salt marshes to winter climate change-induced mangrove forest range expansion; and (3) What is the potential future distribution and relative abundance of mangrove forests under alternative winter climate change scenarios? We developed simple winter climate-based models to predict mangrove forest distribution and relative abundance using observed winter temperature data (1970–2000) and mangrove forest and salt marsh habitat data. Our results identify winter climate thresholds for salt marsh–mangrove forest interactions and highlight coastal areas in the southeastern United States (e.g., Texas, Louisiana, and parts of Florida) where relatively small changes in the intensity and frequency of extreme winter events could cause relatively dramatic landscape-scale ecosystem structural and functional change in the form of poleward mangrove forest migration and salt marsh displacement. The ecological implications of these marsh-to-mangrove forest conversions are poorly understood, but would likely include changes for associated fish and wildlife populations and for the supply of some ecosystem goods and services.

  4. Altered hydrologic and geomorphic processes and bottomland hardwood plant communities of the lower White River Basin

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    King, Sammy L.; Keim, Richard F.; Hupp, Cliff R.; Edwards, Brandon L.; Kroschel, Whitney A.; Johnson, Erin L.; Cochran, J. Wesley

    2016-09-12

    Determine stand establishment patterns of bottomland hardwoods within selected plant communities along three sections of the floodplain. This study provides baseline information on the current geomorphic and hydrologic conditions of the river and can assist in the interpretation of forest responses to past hydrologic and geomorphic processes. Understanding the implications for floodplain forests of geomorphic adjustment in the Lower Mississippi Alluvial Valley is key to managing the region’s valuable resources for a sustainable future.

  5. Model-specification uncertainty in future forest pest outbreak.

    PubMed

    Boulanger, Yan; Gray, David R; Cooke, Barry J; De Grandpré, Louis

    2016-04-01

    Climate change will modify forest pest outbreak characteristics, although there are disagreements regarding the specifics of these changes. A large part of this variability may be attributed to model specifications. As a case study, we developed a consensus model predicting spruce budworm (SBW, Choristoneura fumiferana [Clem.]) outbreak duration using two different predictor data sets and six different correlative methods. The model was used to project outbreak duration and the uncertainty associated with using different data sets and correlative methods (=model-specification uncertainty) for 2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100, according to three forcing scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). The consensus model showed very high explanatory power and low bias. The model projected a more important northward shift and decrease in outbreak duration under the RCP 8.5 scenario. However, variation in single-model projections increases with time, making future projections highly uncertain. Notably, the magnitude of the shifts in northward expansion, overall outbreak duration and the patterns of outbreaks duration at the southern edge were highly variable according to the predictor data set and correlative method used. We also demonstrated that variation in forcing scenarios contributed only slightly to the uncertainty of model projections compared with the two sources of model-specification uncertainty. Our approach helped to quantify model-specification uncertainty in future forest pest outbreak characteristics. It may contribute to sounder decision-making by acknowledging the limits of the projections and help to identify areas where model-specification uncertainty is high. As such, we further stress that this uncertainty should be strongly considered when making forest management plans, notably by adopting adaptive management strategies so as to reduce future risks. © 2015 Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada Global Change Biology © 2015 Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd Reproduced with the permission of the Minister of Natural Resources Canada.

  6. A walk on the wild side: Disturbance dynamics and the conservation and management of European mountain forest ecosystems☆

    PubMed Central

    Kulakowski, Dominik; Seidl, Rupert; Holeksa, Jan; Kuuluvainen, Timo; Nagel, Thomas A.; Panayotov, Momchil; Svoboda, Miroslav; Thorn, Simon; Vacchiano, Giorgio; Whitlock, Cathy; Wohlgemuth, Thomas; Bebi, Peter

    2017-01-01

    Mountain forests are among the most important ecosystems in Europe as they support numerous ecological, hydrological, climatic, social, and economic functions. They are unique relatively natural ecosystems consisting of long-lived species in an otherwise densely populated human landscape. Despite this, centuries of intensive forest management in many of these forests have eclipsed evidence of natural processes, especially the role of disturbances in long-term forest dynamics. Recent trends of land abandonment and establishment of protected forests have coincided with a growing interest in managing forests in more natural states. At the same time, the importance of past disturbances highlighted in an emerging body of literature, and recent increasing disturbances due to climate change are challenging long-held views of dynamics in these ecosystems. Here, we synthesize aspects of this Special Issue on the ecology of mountain forest ecosystems in Europe in the context of broader discussions in the field, to present a new perspective on these ecosystems and their natural disturbance regimes. Most mountain forests in Europe, for which long-term data are available, show a strong and long-term effect of not only human land use but also of natural disturbances that vary by orders of magnitude in size and frequency. Although these disturbances may kill many trees, the forests themselves have not been threatened. The relative importance of natural disturbances, land use, and climate change for ecosystem dynamics varies across space and time. Across the continent, changing climate and land use are altering forest cover, forest structure, tree demography, and natural disturbances, including fires, insect outbreaks, avalanches, and wind disturbances. Projected continued increases in forest area and biomass along with continued warming are likely to further promote forest disturbances. Episodic disturbances may foster ecosystem adaptation to the effects of ongoing and future climatic change. Increasing disturbances, along with trends of less intense land use, will promote further increases in coarse woody debris, with cascading positive effects on biodiversity, edaphic conditions, biogeochemical cycles, and increased heterogeneity across a range of spatial scales. Together, this may translate to disturbance-mediated resilience of forest landscapes and increased biodiversity, as long as climate and disturbance regimes remain within the tolerance of relevant species. Understanding ecological variability, even imperfectly, is integral to anticipating vulnerabilities and promoting ecological resilience, especially under growing uncertainty. Allowing some forests to be shaped by natural processes may be congruent with multiple goals of forest management, even in densely settled and developed countries. PMID:28860677

  7. A walk on the wild side: Disturbance dynamics and the conservation and management of European mountain forest ecosystems.

    PubMed

    Kulakowski, Dominik; Seidl, Rupert; Holeksa, Jan; Kuuluvainen, Timo; Nagel, Thomas A; Panayotov, Momchil; Svoboda, Miroslav; Thorn, Simon; Vacchiano, Giorgio; Whitlock, Cathy; Wohlgemuth, Thomas; Bebi, Peter

    2017-03-15

    Mountain forests are among the most important ecosystems in Europe as they support numerous ecological, hydrological, climatic, social, and economic functions. They are unique relatively natural ecosystems consisting of long-lived species in an otherwise densely populated human landscape. Despite this, centuries of intensive forest management in many of these forests have eclipsed evidence of natural processes, especially the role of disturbances in long-term forest dynamics. Recent trends of land abandonment and establishment of protected forests have coincided with a growing interest in managing forests in more natural states. At the same time, the importance of past disturbances highlighted in an emerging body of literature, and recent increasing disturbances due to climate change are challenging long-held views of dynamics in these ecosystems. Here, we synthesize aspects of this Special Issue on the ecology of mountain forest ecosystems in Europe in the context of broader discussions in the field, to present a new perspective on these ecosystems and their natural disturbance regimes. Most mountain forests in Europe, for which long-term data are available, show a strong and long-term effect of not only human land use but also of natural disturbances that vary by orders of magnitude in size and frequency. Although these disturbances may kill many trees, the forests themselves have not been threatened. The relative importance of natural disturbances, land use, and climate change for ecosystem dynamics varies across space and time. Across the continent, changing climate and land use are altering forest cover, forest structure, tree demography, and natural disturbances, including fires, insect outbreaks, avalanches, and wind disturbances. Projected continued increases in forest area and biomass along with continued warming are likely to further promote forest disturbances. Episodic disturbances may foster ecosystem adaptation to the effects of ongoing and future climatic change. Increasing disturbances, along with trends of less intense land use, will promote further increases in coarse woody debris, with cascading positive effects on biodiversity, edaphic conditions, biogeochemical cycles, and increased heterogeneity across a range of spatial scales. Together, this may translate to disturbance-mediated resilience of forest landscapes and increased biodiversity, as long as climate and disturbance regimes remain within the tolerance of relevant species. Understanding ecological variability, even imperfectly, is integral to anticipating vulnerabilities and promoting ecological resilience, especially under growing uncertainty. Allowing some forests to be shaped by natural processes may be congruent with multiple goals of forest management, even in densely settled and developed countries.

  8. Burn and they will come! The western regional birds and burns study examines bird responses to prescribed fire

    Treesearch

    Jonathan Thompson; John Lehmkuhl

    2008-01-01

    Although prescribed fire is increasingly being used in ponderosa pine forests as a management tool to reduce the risk of future high-severity wildfire, its effects on wildlife habitat have rarely been examined. The Birds and Burns Network was created to assist managers in planning prescribed fire projects that will reduce fuels and enhance bird habitat. Researchers...

  9. California's hardwood resource: managing for wildlife, water, pleasing scenery, and wood products

    Treesearch

    Philip M. McDonald; Dean W. Huber

    1995-01-01

    A new management perspective that emphasizes a variety of amenities and commodities is needed for California’s forest-zone hardwoods. For the near future and perhaps more on public than on private land, these "yields" are wildlife, water, esthetics, and wood products. Each is presented first as an individual yield and then as part of a combined yield. As an...

  10. Impact of Stream Management Zones and Road Beautifying Buffers on Long-Term Fiber Supply in Georgia

    Treesearch

    Michal Zasada; Chris J. Cieszewski; Roger C. Lowe

    2005-01-01

    Streamside management zones (SMZs) and road beautifying buffers (RBBs) in Georgia have had an unknown impact on the available wood supply in the state. We used Forest Inventory and Analysis data, Landsat Thematic Mapper imagery, Gap Analysis Program and other geographic information system data to estimate the potential impact of SMZs and RBBs in the current and future...

  11. The Southern Forest Futures Project: technical report

    Treesearch

    David N. Wear; John G. Greis

    2013-01-01

    Please visit the Southern Forest Futures Project website for more information.The Southern Forest Futures Project provides a science-based “futuring” analysis of the forests of the 13 States of the Southeastern United States. With findings...

  12. Linking state-and-transition simulation and timber supply models for forest biomass production scenarios

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Costanza, Jennifer; Abt, Robert C.; McKerrow, Alexa; Collazo, Jaime

    2015-01-01

    We linked state-and-transition simulation models (STSMs) with an economics-based timber supply model to examine landscape dynamics in North Carolina through 2050 for three scenarios of forest biomass production. Forest biomass could be an important source of renewable energy in the future, but there is currently much uncertainty about how biomass production would impact landscapes. In the southeastern US, if forests become important sources of biomass for bioenergy, we expect increased land-use change and forest management. STSMs are ideal for simulating these landscape changes, but the amounts of change will depend on drivers such as timber prices and demand for forest land, which are best captured with forest economic models. We first developed state-and-transition model pathways in the ST-Sim software platform for 49 vegetation and land-use types that incorporated each expected type of landscape change. Next, for the three biomass production scenarios, the SubRegional Timber Supply Model (SRTS) was used to determine the annual areas of thinning and harvest in five broad forest types, as well as annual areas converted among those forest types, agricultural, and urban lands. The SRTS output was used to define area targets for STSMs in ST-Sim under two scenarios of biomass production and one baseline, business-as-usual scenario. We show that ST-Sim output matched SRTS targets in most cases. Landscape dynamics results indicate that, compared with the baseline scenario, forest biomass production leads to more forest and, specifically, more intensively managed forest on the landscape by 2050. Thus, the STSMs, informed by forest economics models, provide important information about potential landscape effects of bioenergy production.

  13. Quantifying the Carbon Balance of Forest Restoration and Wildfire under Projected Climate in the Fire-Prone Southwestern US.

    PubMed

    Hurteau, Matthew D

    2017-01-01

    Climate projections for the southwestern US suggest a warmer, drier future and have the potential to impact forest carbon (C) sequestration and post-fire C recovery. Restoring forest structure and surface fire regimes initially decreases total ecosystem carbon (TEC), but can stabilize the remaining C by moderating wildfire behavior. Previous research has demonstrated that fire maintained forests can store more C over time than fire suppressed forests in the presence of wildfire. However, because the climate future is uncertain, I sought to determine the efficacy of forest management to moderate fire behavior and its effect on forest C dynamics under current and projected climate. I used the LANDIS-II model to simulate carbon dynamics under early (2010-2019), mid (2050-2059), and late (2090-2099) century climate projections for a ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) dominated landscape in northern Arizona. I ran 100-year simulations with two different treatments (control, thin and burn) and a 1 in 50 chance of wildfire occurring. I found that control TEC had a consistent decline throughout the simulation period, regardless of climate. Thin and burn TEC increased following treatment implementation and showed more differentiation than the control in response to climate, with late-century climate having the lowest TEC. Treatment efficacy, as measured by mean fire severity, was not impacted by climate. Fire effects were evident in the cumulative net ecosystem exchange (NEE) for the different treatments. Over the simulation period, 32.8-48.9% of the control landscape was either C neutral or a C source to the atmosphere and greater than 90% of the thin and burn landscape was a moderate C sink. These results suggest that in southwestern ponderosa pine, restoring forest structure and surface fire regimes provides a reasonable hedge against the uncertainty of future climate change for maintaining the forest C sink.

  14. Quantifying the Carbon Balance of Forest Restoration and Wildfire under Projected Climate in the Fire-Prone Southwestern US

    PubMed Central

    2017-01-01

    Climate projections for the southwestern US suggest a warmer, drier future and have the potential to impact forest carbon (C) sequestration and post-fire C recovery. Restoring forest structure and surface fire regimes initially decreases total ecosystem carbon (TEC), but can stabilize the remaining C by moderating wildfire behavior. Previous research has demonstrated that fire maintained forests can store more C over time than fire suppressed forests in the presence of wildfire. However, because the climate future is uncertain, I sought to determine the efficacy of forest management to moderate fire behavior and its effect on forest C dynamics under current and projected climate. I used the LANDIS-II model to simulate carbon dynamics under early (2010–2019), mid (2050–2059), and late (2090–2099) century climate projections for a ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) dominated landscape in northern Arizona. I ran 100-year simulations with two different treatments (control, thin and burn) and a 1 in 50 chance of wildfire occurring. I found that control TEC had a consistent decline throughout the simulation period, regardless of climate. Thin and burn TEC increased following treatment implementation and showed more differentiation than the control in response to climate, with late-century climate having the lowest TEC. Treatment efficacy, as measured by mean fire severity, was not impacted by climate. Fire effects were evident in the cumulative net ecosystem exchange (NEE) for the different treatments. Over the simulation period, 32.8–48.9% of the control landscape was either C neutral or a C source to the atmosphere and greater than 90% of the thin and burn landscape was a moderate C sink. These results suggest that in southwestern ponderosa pine, restoring forest structure and surface fire regimes provides a reasonable hedge against the uncertainty of future climate change for maintaining the forest C sink. PMID:28046079

  15. Assessing the sensitivity of avian species abundance to land cover and climate

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    LeBrun, Jaymi J.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Thompson, Frank R.; Dijak, William D.; Millspaugh, Joshua J.

    2016-01-01

    Climate projections for the Midwestern United States predict southerly climates to shift northward. These shifts in climate could alter distributions of species across North America through changes in climate (i.e., temperature and precipitation), or through climate-induced changes on land cover. Our objective was to determine the relative impacts of land cover and climate on the abundance of five bird species in the Central United States that have habitat requirements ranging from grassland and shrubland to forest. We substituted space for time to examine potential impacts of a changing climate by assessing climate and land cover relationships over a broad latitudinal gradient. We found positive and negative relationships of climate and land cover factors with avian abundances. Habitat variables drove patterns of abundance in migratory and resident species, although climate was also influential in predicting abundance for some species occupying more open habitat (i.e., prairie warbler, blue-winged warbler, and northern bobwhite). Abundance of northern bobwhite increased with winter temperature and was the species exhibiting the most significant effect of climate. Models for birds primarily occupying early successional habitats performed better with a combination of habitat and climate variables whereas models of species found in contiguous forest performed best with land cover alone. These varied species-specific responses present unique challenges to land managers trying to balance species conservation over a variety of land covers. Management activities focused on increasing forest cover may play a role in mitigating effects of future climate by providing habitat refugia to species vulnerable to projected changes. Conservation efforts would be best served focusing on areas with high species abundances and an array of habitats. Future work managing forests for resilience and resistance to climate change could benefit species already susceptible to climate impacts.

  16. Perceptions of climate change across the Canadian forest sector: The key factors of institutional and geographical environment.

    PubMed

    Ameztegui, Aitor; Solarik, Kevin A; Parkins, John R; Houle, Daniel; Messier, Christian; Gravel, Dominique

    2018-01-01

    Assessing the perception of key stakeholders within the forest sector is critical to evaluating their readiness to engage in adapting to climate change. Here, we report the results of the most comprehensive survey carried out in the Canadian forestry sector to date regarding perceptions of climate change. A total of 1158 individuals, representing a wide range of stakeholders across the five most important forestry provinces in Canada, were asked about climate change, its impact on forest ecosystems, and the suitability of current forest management for addressing future impacts. Overall, we found that respondents were more concerned about climate change than the general population. More than 90% of respondents agreed with the anthropogenic origins of climate change, and > 50% considered it a direct threat to their welfare. Political view was the main driver of general beliefs about the causes of climate change and its future consequences, while the province of origin proved to be the best predictor of perceived current impacts on forest ecosystems and its associated risks; and type of stakeholder was the main driver of perceived need for adaptation. Industrial stakeholders were the most skeptical about the anthropogenic cause(s) of climate change (18% disagreed with this statement, compared to an average of 8% in the other stakeholders), its impacts on forest ecosystems (28% for industry vs. 10% for other respondents), and the need for new management practices (18% vs. 7%). Although the degree of awareness and the willingness to implement adaptive practices were high even for the most skeptical groups, our study identified priority sectors or areas for action when designing awareness campaigns. We suggest that the design of a strategic framework for implementing climate adaptation within the Canadian forest sector should focus on the relationship between climate change and changes in disturbance regimes, and above all on the economic consequences of these changes, but it should also take into account the positions shown by each of the actors in each province.

  17. Perceptions of climate change across the Canadian forest sector: The key factors of institutional and geographical environment

    PubMed Central

    Parkins, John R.; Houle, Daniel; Messier, Christian; Gravel, Dominique

    2018-01-01

    Assessing the perception of key stakeholders within the forest sector is critical to evaluating their readiness to engage in adapting to climate change. Here, we report the results of the most comprehensive survey carried out in the Canadian forestry sector to date regarding perceptions of climate change. A total of 1158 individuals, representing a wide range of stakeholders across the five most important forestry provinces in Canada, were asked about climate change, its impact on forest ecosystems, and the suitability of current forest management for addressing future impacts. Overall, we found that respondents were more concerned about climate change than the general population. More than 90% of respondents agreed with the anthropogenic origins of climate change, and > 50% considered it a direct threat to their welfare. Political view was the main driver of general beliefs about the causes of climate change and its future consequences, while the province of origin proved to be the best predictor of perceived current impacts on forest ecosystems and its associated risks; and type of stakeholder was the main driver of perceived need for adaptation. Industrial stakeholders were the most skeptical about the anthropogenic cause(s) of climate change (18% disagreed with this statement, compared to an average of 8% in the other stakeholders), its impacts on forest ecosystems (28% for industry vs. 10% for other respondents), and the need for new management practices (18% vs. 7%). Although the degree of awareness and the willingness to implement adaptive practices were high even for the most skeptical groups, our study identified priority sectors or areas for action when designing awareness campaigns. We suggest that the design of a strategic framework for implementing climate adaptation within the Canadian forest sector should focus on the relationship between climate change and changes in disturbance regimes, and above all on the economic consequences of these changes, but it should also take into account the positions shown by each of the actors in each province. PMID:29897977

  18. The Northern Forest Futures Project: examining past, present, and future trends affecting forests in and around the central hardwood forest region

    Treesearch

    Stephen Shifley

    2013-01-01

    Th e Northern Forest Futures Project is intended to be a window on tomorrow's forests, revealing how today's trends and choices can change the future landscape of the Northeast and Midwest. Th e research is focused on the 20 states bounded by Maine, Maryland, Missouri and Minnesota—the most heavily forested and most densely populated quadrant of the...

  19. Leaf to landscape responses of giant sequoia to hotter drought: An introduction and synthesis for the special section

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Nydick, Koren R.; Stephenson, Nathan L.; Ambrose, Anthony R.; Asner, Gregory P.; Baxter, Wendy L.; Das, Adrian J.; Dawson, Todd E.; Martin, Roberta E.; Paz-Kagan, Tarin

    2018-01-01

    Hotter droughts are becoming more common as climate change progresses, and they may already have caused instances of forest dieback on all forested continents. Learning from hotter droughts, including where on the landscape forests are more or less vulnerable to these events, is critical to help resource managers proactively prepare for the future. As part of our Leaf to Landscape Project, we measured the response of giant sequoia, the world’s largest tree species, to the extreme 2012–2016 hotter drought in California. The project integrated leaf-level physiology measurements, crown-level foliage dieback surveys, and remotely sensed canopy water content (CWC) to shed light on mechanisms and spatial patterns in drought response. Here we summarize initial findings, present a conceptual model of drought response, and discuss management implications; details are presented in the other four articles of the special section on Giant Sequoias and Drought. Giant sequoias exhibited both leaf- and canopy-level responses that were effective in protecting whole-tree hydraulic integrity for the vast majority of individual sequoias. Very few giant sequoias died during the drought compared to other mixed conifer tree species; however, the magnitude of sequoia drought response varied across the landscape. This variability was partially explained by local site characteristics, including variables related to site water balance. We found that low CWC is an indicator of recent foliage dieback, which occurs when stress levels are high enough that leaf-level adjustments alone are insufficient for giant sequoias to maintain hydraulic integrity. CWC or change in CWC may be useful indicators of drought stress that reveal patterns of vulnerability to future hotter droughts. Future work will measure recovery from the drought and strengthen our ability to interpret CWC maps. Our ultimate goal is to produce giant sequoia vulnerability maps to help target management actions, such as reducing other stressors, increasing resistance to hotter drought through prescribed fire or mechanical thinning, and planting sequoias in projected future suitable habitat, which may occur outside current grove distributions. We suggest that managers compare different types of vulnerability assessments and combine vulnerability maps with other sources of information to inform decisions.

  20. Observed forest sensitivity to climate implies large changes in 21st century North American forest growth.

    PubMed

    Charney, Noah D; Babst, Flurin; Poulter, Benjamin; Record, Sydne; Trouet, Valerie M; Frank, David; Enquist, Brian J; Evans, Margaret E K

    2016-09-01

    Predicting long-term trends in forest growth requires accurate characterisation of how the relationship between forest productivity and climatic stress varies across climatic regimes. Using a network of over two million tree-ring observations spanning North America and a space-for-time substitution methodology, we forecast climate impacts on future forest growth. We explored differing scenarios of increased water-use efficiency (WUE) due to CO2 -fertilisation, which we simulated as increased effective precipitation. In our forecasts: (1) climate change negatively impacted forest growth rates in the interior west and positively impacted forest growth along the western, southeastern and northeastern coasts; (2) shifting climate sensitivities offset positive effects of warming on high-latitude forests, leaving no evidence for continued 'boreal greening'; and (3) it took a 72% WUE enhancement to compensate for continentally averaged growth declines under RCP 8.5. Our results highlight the importance of locally adapted forest management strategies to handle regional differences in growth responses to climate change. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

  1. Searching for resilience: addressing the impacts of changing disturbance regimes on forest ecosystem services

    PubMed Central

    Seidl, Rupert; Spies, Thomas A.; Peterson, David L.; Stephens, Scott L.; Hicke, Jeffrey A.

    2016-01-01

    Summary 1. The provisioning of ecosystem services to society is increasingly under pressure from global change. Changing disturbance regimes are of particular concern in this context due to their high potential impact on ecosystem structure, function and composition. Resilience-based stewardship is advocated to address these changes in ecosystem management, but its operational implementation has remained challenging. 2. We review observed and expected changes in disturbance regimes and their potential impacts on provisioning, regulating, cultural and supporting ecosystem services, concentrating on temperate and boreal forests. Subsequently, we focus on resilience as a powerful concept to quantify and address these changes and their impacts, and present an approach towards its operational application using established methods from disturbance ecology. 3. We suggest using the range of variability concept – characterizing and bounding the long-term behaviour of ecosystems – to locate and delineate the basins of attraction of a system. System recovery in relation to its range of variability can be used to measure resilience of ecosystems, allowing inferences on both engineering resilience (recovery rate) and monitoring for regime shifts (directionality of recovery trajectory). 4. It is important to consider the dynamic nature of these properties in ecosystem analysis and management decision-making, as both disturbance processes and mechanisms of resilience will be subject to changes in the future. Furthermore, because ecosystem services are at the interface between natural and human systems, the social dimension of resilience (social adaptive capacity and range of variability) requires consideration in responding to changing disturbance regimes in forests. 5. Synthesis and applications. Based on examples from temperate and boreal forests we synthesize principles and pathways for fostering resilience to changing disturbance regimes in ecosystem management. We conclude that future work should focus on testing and implementing these pathways in different contexts to make ecosystem services provisioning more robust to changing disturbance regimes and advance our understanding of how to cope with change and uncertainty in ecosystem management. PMID:26966320

  2. Forest carbon response to management scenarios intended to mitigate GHG emissions and reduce fire impacts in the US West Coast region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hudiburg, T. W.; Law, B. E.; Thornton, P. E.; Luyssaert, S.

    2012-12-01

    US West coast forests are among the most carbon dense biomes in the world and the potential for biomass accumulation in mesic coastal forests is the highest recorded (Waring and Franklin 1979, Hudiburg et al. 2009). Greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation strategies have recently expanded to include forest woody biomass as bioenergy, with the expectation that this will also reduce forest mortality. We examined forest carbon response and life cycle assessment (LCA) of net carbon emissions following varying combinations of bioenergy management scenarios in Pacific Northwest forests for the period from 2010-2100. We use the NCAR CLM4 model combined with a regional atmospheric forcing dataset and account for future environmental change using the IPCC RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. Bioenergy management strategies include a repeated thinning harvest, a repeated clearcut harvest, and a single salvage harvest in areas with projected insect-related mortality. None of the bioenergy management scenarios reduce net emissions to the atmosphere compared to continued business-as-usual harvest (BAU) by the end of the 21st century. Forest regrowth and reduced fire emissions are not large enough to balance the wood removals from harvest. Moreover, the substitution of wood for fossil fuel energy and products is not large enough to offset the wood losses through decomposition and combustion. However, in some ecoregions (Blue Mountains and East Cascades), emissions from the thinning harvests begin to improve over BAU at the end of the century and could lead to net reductions in those ecoregions over a longer time period (> 100 years). For salvage logging, there is no change compared to BAU emissions by the end of the 21st century because the treatment area is minimal compared to the other treatments and only performed once. These results suggest that managing forests for carbon sequestration will need to include a variety of approaches accounting for forest baseline conditions and in some ecoregions, harvest reductions below current levels will sequester more carbon than additional harvest removals for bioenergy. References: Hudiburg, T., B. E. Law, D. P. Turner, J. Campbell, D. Donato, and M. Duane. 2009. Carbon dynamics of Oregon and Northern California forests and potential land-based carbon storage. Ecological Applications 19:163-180. Waring, R. H., and J. F. Franklin. 1979. Evergreen Coniferous Forests of the Pacific Northwest. Science 204:1380-1386.

  3. Projected changes in the future distribution and production of sessile oak forests near the xeric limit

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gulyás, Krisztina; Berki, Imre; Veperdi, Gábor

    2017-04-01

    As a result of regional climate change, most European countries are experiencing an increase in mean annual temperature and CO2 concentration and a decrease in mean annual precipitation. In low-elevation areas in Southeast Europe, where precipitation is a limiting factor, the projected climate change threatens the health, production, and potential distribution of forest ecosystems. The intensive summer droughts and commonly occurring extreme weather events create negative influences that cause health declines, changes in yield potential, and tree mortality. Due to the observed damages, attention has been focused on these problems. The impacts of climatic extremes cause difficulties in forest management; these difficulties occur more frequently in Hungary, which is a region that is the most sensitive to climatic extremes. Regional climate model simulations project that the frequency of extremely high temperatures and long-term dry periods will increase; both of these factors have negative effects on future tree species distribution and production. Thus, the aim of our study is to utilize the sessile oak (Quercus petraea) as a climate indicator tree species to investigate potential future distribution and estimate changes in growth trends. For future spatial distribution, we used the Fuzzy membership distribution model in a new Decision Support System (DSS) which was developed for the Hungarian forestry and agricultural sectors. Through study techniques we can employ DSS, which contains various environmental layers (topography, vegetation, past and projected future climate, soils, and hydrology), to create probability distribution maps. The results, based on 12 regional climate model simulations (www.ensembles-eu.org), show that the area of sessile oak forests is shrinking continuously and will continue to do so to the end of the 21st century. For future production estimations, we analysed intensive long-term growth monitoring network plots that were established in 1993. We calculated production capacity on the basis of age and height; we then compared these to past climate conditions to discover connections between climate, site conditions, and production. We estimated future growth tendencies for three different time periods (2011-2040; 2041-2070; 2071-2100). Results show that the most vulnerable region is the south-western part of Hungary where the projected production capacity may decrease by 26% for the time period 2071-2100. The impacts of climate change may be milder in the north-eastern part of Hungary where a 19% decrease in the production capacity of sessile oak forests is estimated. These investigations and results are important for sustainable forest management and help define climate change adaptation strategies in forestry. Keywords: climate change impacts, distribution modelling, production capacity Acknowledgements: Research is supported by the ÚNKP-16-3-3 New National Excellence Program of the Ministry of Human Capacities and the "Agroclimate.2" (VKSZ_12-1-2013-0034) EU-national joint funded research project.

  4. Human deforestation outweighs future climate change impacts of sedimentation on coral reefs

    PubMed Central

    Maina, Joseph; de Moel, Hans; Zinke, Jens; Madin, Joshua; McClanahan, Tim; Vermaat, Jan E.

    2013-01-01

    Near-shore coral reef systems are experiencing increased sediment supply due to conversion of forests to other land uses. Counteracting increased sediment loads requires an understanding of the relationship between forest cover and sediment supply, and how this relationship might change in the future. Here we study this relationship by simulating river flow and sediment supply in four watersheds that are adjacent to Madagascar’s major coral reef ecosystems for a range of future climate change projections and land-use change scenarios. We show that by 2090, all four watersheds are predicted to experience temperature increases and/or precipitation declines that, when combined, result in decreases in river flow and sediment load. However, these climate change-driven declines are outweighed by the impact of deforestation. Consequently, our analyses suggest that regional land-use management is more important than mediating climate change for influencing sedimentation of Malagasy coral reefs. PMID:23736941

  5. Human deforestation outweighs future climate change impacts of sedimentation on coral reefs.

    PubMed

    Maina, Joseph; de Moel, Hans; Zinke, Jens; Madin, Joshua; McClanahan, Tim; Vermaat, Jan E

    2013-01-01

    Near-shore coral reef systems are experiencing increased sediment supply due to conversion of forests to other land uses. Counteracting increased sediment loads requires an understanding of the relationship between forest cover and sediment supply, and how this relationship might change in the future. Here we study this relationship by simulating river flow and sediment supply in four watersheds that are adjacent to Madagascar's major coral reef ecosystems for a range of future climate change projections and land-use change scenarios. We show that by 2090, all four watersheds are predicted to experience temperature increases and/or precipitation declines that, when combined, result in decreases in river flow and sediment load. However, these climate change-driven declines are outweighed by the impact of deforestation. Consequently, our analyses suggest that regional land-use management is more important than mediating climate change for influencing sedimentation of Malagasy coral reefs.

  6. Potential changes in forest composition could reduce impacts of climate change on boreal wildfires.

    PubMed

    Terrier, Aurélie; Girardin, Martin P; Périé, Catherine; Legendre, Pierre; Bergeron, Yves

    2013-01-01

    There is general consensus that wildfires in boreal forests will increase throughout this century in response to more severe and frequent drought conditions induced by climate change. However, prediction models generally assume that the vegetation component will remain static over the next few decades. As deciduous species are less flammable than conifer species, it is reasonable to believe that a potential expansion of deciduous species in boreal forests, either occurring naturally or through landscape management, could offset some of the impacts of climate change on the occurrence of boreal wildfires. The objective of this study was to determine the potential of this offsetting effect through a simulation experiment conducted in eastern boreal North America. Predictions of future fire activity were made using multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) with fire behavior indices and ecological niche models as predictor variables so as to take into account the effects of changing climate and tree distribution on fire activity. A regional climate model (RCM) was used for predictions of future fire risk conditions. The experiment was conducted under two tree dispersal scenarios: the status quo scenario, in which the distribution of forest types does not differ from the present one, and the unlimited dispersal scenario, which allows forest types to expand their range to fully occupy their climatic niche. Our results show that future warming will create climate conditions that are more prone to fire occurrence. However, unlimited dispersal of southern restricted deciduous species could reduce the impact of climate change on future fire occurrence. Hence, the use of deciduous species could be a good option for an efficient strategic fire mitigation strategy aimed at reducing fire Propagation in coniferous landscapes and increasing public safety in remote populated areas of eastern boreal Canada under climate change.

  7. Modeling the Effects of Climate Change on Whitebark Pine Along the Pacific Crest Trail

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anderson, R. S.; Nguyen, A.; Gill, N.; Kannan, S.; Patadia, N.; Meyer, M.; Schmidt, C.

    2012-12-01

    The Pacific Crest Trail (PCT), one of eight National Scenic Trails, stretches 2,650 miles from Mexico to the Canadian border. At high elevations along this trail, within Inyo and Sierra National Forests, populations of whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis) have been diminishing due to infestation of the mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) and are threatened due to a changing climate. Understanding the current and future condition of whitebark pine is a primary goal of forest managers due to its high ecological and economic importance, and it is currently a candidate for protection under the Endangered Species Act (ESA). Using satellite imagery, we analyzed the rate and spatial extent of whitebark pine tree mortality from 1984 to 2011 using the Landsat-based Detection of Trends in Disturbance and Recovery (LandTrendr) program. Climate data, soil properties, and biological features of the whitebark pine were incorporated in the Physiological Principles to Predict Growth (3-PG) model to predict future rates of growth and assess its applicability in modeling natural whitebark pine processes. Finally, the Random Forest algorithm was used with topographic data alongside recent and future climate data from the IPCC A2 and B1 climate scenarios for the years 2030, 2060, and 2090 to model the future distribution of whitebark pine. LandTrendr results indicate beetle related mortality covering 14,940 km2 of forest, 2,880 km2 of which are within whitebark pine forest. By 2090, our results show that under the A2 climate scenario, whitebark pine suitable habitat may be reduced by as much as 99.97% by the year 2090 within our study area. Under the B1 climate scenario, which has decreased CO2 emissions, 13.54% more habitat would be preserved in 2090.

  8. Contrasting spatial patterns in active-fire and fire-suppressed Mediterranean climate old-growth mixed conifer forests.

    PubMed

    Fry, Danny L; Stephens, Scott L; Collins, Brandon M; North, Malcolm P; Franco-Vizcaíno, Ernesto; Gill, Samantha J

    2014-01-01

    In Mediterranean environments in western North America, historic fire regimes in frequent-fire conifer forests are highly variable both temporally and spatially. This complexity influenced forest structure and spatial patterns, but some of this diversity has been lost due to anthropogenic disruption of ecosystem processes, including fire. Information from reference forest sites can help management efforts to restore forests conditions that may be more resilient to future changes in disturbance regimes and climate. In this study, we characterize tree spatial patterns using four-ha stem maps from four old-growth, Jeffrey pine-mixed conifer forests, two with active-fire regimes in northwestern Mexico and two that experienced fire exclusion in the southern Sierra Nevada. Most of the trees were in patches, averaging six to 11 trees per patch at 0.007 to 0.014 ha(-1), and occupied 27-46% of the study areas. Average canopy gap sizes (0.04 ha) covering 11-20% of the area were not significantly different among sites. The putative main effects of fire exclusion were higher densities of single trees in smaller size classes, larger proportion of trees (≥ 56%) in large patches (≥ 10 trees), and decreases in spatial complexity. While a homogenization of forest structure has been a typical result from fire exclusion, some similarities in patch, single tree, and gap attributes were maintained at these sites. These within-stand descriptions provide spatially relevant benchmarks from which to manage for structural heterogeneity in frequent-fire forest types.

  9. The Southern Forest Futures Project: summary report

    Treesearch

    David N. Wear; John G. Greis

    2012-01-01

    The Southern Forest Futures Project provides a science-based “futuring” analysis of the forests of the 13 States of the Southeastern United States. With findings organized in a set of scenarios and using a combination of computer models and science synthesis, the authors of the Southern Forest Futures Project examine a variety of possible futures that could shape...

  10. Pulpwood, pesticides, and people. Controlling spruce budworm in northeastern North America

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Irland, Lloyd C.

    1980-09-01

    The eastern spruce budworm is a major forest pest over the continental range of the spruce-fir forest ecosystem and its southern ecotonal fringes in Canada and the northeastern United States. The current budworm outbreak illustrates the difficulty of arriving at economically sound and publicly acceptable forest pest control policies. Policies ranging from no use of chemical control to annual widespread crop protection have been adopted. There is no single all-around “best” policy for spruce budworm control. Chemical spray programs have demonstrably slowed the normal progress of mortality due to budworm, but have not eradicated the pest. Where industry remains heavily dependent on a fully utilized spruce-fir forest, no easy, low-cost solutions to the budworm problem exist. Reliance on spraying will have to be reduced and plans made to utilize higher levels of tree mortality and to manage the forest for lower future vulnerability.

  11. DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Kooperman, Gabriel J.; Chen, Yang; Hoffman, Forrest M.

    Understanding how anthropogenic CO 2 emissions will influence future precipitation is critical for sustainably managing ecosystems, particularly for drought-sensitive tropical forests. Although tropical precipitation change remains uncertain, nearly all models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 predict a strengthening zonal precipitation asymmetry by 2100, with relative increases over Asian and African tropical forests and decreases over South American forests. Here we show that the plant physiological response to increasing CO 2 is a primary mechanism responsible for this pattern. Applying a simulation design in the Community Earth System Model in which CO 2 increases are isolated over individualmore » continents, we demonstrate that different circulation, moisture and stability changes arise over each continent due to declines in stomatal conductance and transpiration. The sum of local atmospheric responses over individual continents explains the pan-tropical precipitation asymmetry. Our analysis suggests that South American forests may be more vulnerable to rising CO 2 than Asian or African forests.« less

  12. Soil Bacterial Community Structure Responses to Precipitation Reduction and Forest Management in Forest Ecosystems across Germany

    PubMed Central

    Felsmann, Katja; Baudis, Mathias; Gimbel, Katharina; Kayler, Zachary E.; Ellerbrock, Ruth; Bruehlheide, Helge; Bruckhoff, Johannes; Welk, Erik; Puhlmann, Heike; Weiler, Markus; Gessler, Arthur; Ulrich, Andreas

    2015-01-01

    Soil microbial communities play an important role in forest ecosystem functioning, but how climate change will affect the community composition and consequently bacterial functions is poorly understood. We assessed the effects of reduced precipitation with the aim of simulating realistic future drought conditions for one growing season on the bacterial community and its relation to soil properties and forest management. We manipulated precipitation in beech and conifer forest plots managed at different levels of intensity in three different regions across Germany. The precipitation reduction decreased soil water content across the growing season by between 2 to 8% depending on plot and region. T-RFLP analysis and pyrosequencing of the 16S rRNA gene were used to study the total soil bacterial community and its active members after six months of precipitation reduction. The effect of reduced precipitation on the total bacterial community structure was negligible while significant effects could be observed for the active bacteria. However, the effect was secondary to the stronger influence of specific soil characteristics across the three regions and management selection of overstorey tree species and their respective understorey vegetation. The impact of reduced precipitation differed between the studied plots; however, we could not determine the particular parameters being able to modify the response of the active bacterial community among plots. We conclude that the moderate drought induced by the precipitation manipulation treatment started to affect the active but not the total bacterial community, which points to an adequate resistance of the soil microbial system over one growing season. PMID:25875835

  13. Soil bacterial community structure responses to precipitation reduction and forest management in forest ecosystems across Germany.

    PubMed

    Felsmann, Katja; Baudis, Mathias; Gimbel, Katharina; Kayler, Zachary E; Ellerbrock, Ruth; Bruelheide, Helge; Bruehlheide, Helge; Bruckhoff, Johannes; Welk, Erik; Puhlmann, Heike; Weiler, Markus; Gessler, Arthur; Ulrich, Andreas

    2015-01-01

    Soil microbial communities play an important role in forest ecosystem functioning, but how climate change will affect the community composition and consequently bacterial functions is poorly understood. We assessed the effects of reduced precipitation with the aim of simulating realistic future drought conditions for one growing season on the bacterial community and its relation to soil properties and forest management. We manipulated precipitation in beech and conifer forest plots managed at different levels of intensity in three different regions across Germany. The precipitation reduction decreased soil water content across the growing season by between 2 to 8% depending on plot and region. T-RFLP analysis and pyrosequencing of the 16S rRNA gene were used to study the total soil bacterial community and its active members after six months of precipitation reduction. The effect of reduced precipitation on the total bacterial community structure was negligible while significant effects could be observed for the active bacteria. However, the effect was secondary to the stronger influence of specific soil characteristics across the three regions and management selection of overstorey tree species and their respective understorey vegetation. The impact of reduced precipitation differed between the studied plots; however, we could not determine the particular parameters being able to modify the response of the active bacterial community among plots. We conclude that the moderate drought induced by the precipitation manipulation treatment started to affect the active but not the total bacterial community, which points to an adequate resistance of the soil microbial system over one growing season.

  14. Dominant forest tree species are potentially vulnerable to climate change over large portions of their range even at high latitudes

    PubMed Central

    de Blois, Sylvie

    2016-01-01

    Projecting suitable conditions for a species as a function of future climate provides a reasonable, although admittedly imperfect, spatially explicit estimate of species vulnerability associated with climate change. Projections emphasizing range shifts at continental scale, however, can mask contrasting patterns at local or regional scale where management and policy decisions are made. Moreover, models usually show potential for areas to become climatically unsuitable, remain suitable, or become suitable for a particular species with climate change, but each of these outcomes raises markedly different ecological and management issues. Managing forest decline at sites where climatic stress is projected to increase is likely to be the most immediate challenge resulting from climate change. Here we assess habitat suitability with climate change for five dominant tree species of eastern North American forests, focusing on areas of greatest vulnerability (loss of suitability in the baseline range) in Quebec (Canada) rather than opportunities (increase in suitability). Results show that these species are at risk of maladaptation over a remarkably large proportion of their baseline range. Depending on species, 5–21% of currently climatically suitable habitats are projected to be at risk of becoming unsuitable. This suggests that species that have traditionally defined whole regional vegetation assemblages could become less adapted to these regions, with significant impact on ecosystems and forest economy. In spite of their well-recognised limitations and the uncertainty that remains, regionally-explicit risk assessment approaches remain one of the best options to convey that message and the need for climate policies and forest management adaptation strategies. PMID:27478706

  15. Harnessing ecosystem models and multi-criteria decision analysis for the support of forest management.

    PubMed

    Wolfslehner, Bernhard; Seidl, Rupert

    2010-12-01

    The decision-making environment in forest management (FM) has changed drastically during the last decades. Forest management planning is facing increasing complexity due to a widening portfolio of forest goods and services, a societal demand for a rational, transparent decision process and rising uncertainties concerning future environmental conditions (e.g., climate change). Methodological responses to these challenges include an intensified use of ecosystem models to provide an enriched, quantitative information base for FM planning. Furthermore, multi-criteria methods are increasingly used to amalgamate information, preferences, expert judgments and value expressions, in support of the participatory and communicative dimensions of modern forestry. Although the potential of combining these two approaches has been demonstrated in a number of studies, methodological aspects in interfacing forest ecosystem models (FEM) and multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) are scarcely addressed explicitly. In this contribution we review the state of the art in FEM and MCDA in the context of FM planning and highlight some of the crucial issues when combining ecosystem and preference modeling. We discuss issues and requirements in selecting approaches suitable for supporting FM planning problems from the growing body of FEM and MCDA concepts. We furthermore identify two major challenges in a harmonized application of FEM-MCDA: (i) the design and implementation of an indicator-based analysis framework capturing ecological and social aspects and their interactions relevant for the decision process, and (ii) holistic information management that supports consistent use of different information sources, provides meta-information as well as information on uncertainties throughout the planning process.

  16. Harnessing Ecosystem Models and Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis for the Support of Forest Management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wolfslehner, Bernhard; Seidl, Rupert

    2010-12-01

    The decision-making environment in forest management (FM) has changed drastically during the last decades. Forest management planning is facing increasing complexity due to a widening portfolio of forest goods and services, a societal demand for a rational, transparent decision process and rising uncertainties concerning future environmental conditions (e.g., climate change). Methodological responses to these challenges include an intensified use of ecosystem models to provide an enriched, quantitative information base for FM planning. Furthermore, multi-criteria methods are increasingly used to amalgamate information, preferences, expert judgments and value expressions, in support of the participatory and communicative dimensions of modern forestry. Although the potential of combining these two approaches has been demonstrated in a number of studies, methodological aspects in interfacing forest ecosystem models (FEM) and multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) are scarcely addressed explicitly. In this contribution we review the state of the art in FEM and MCDA in the context of FM planning and highlight some of the crucial issues when combining ecosystem and preference modeling. We discuss issues and requirements in selecting approaches suitable for supporting FM planning problems from the growing body of FEM and MCDA concepts. We furthermore identify two major challenges in a harmonized application of FEM-MCDA: (i) the design and implementation of an indicator-based analysis framework capturing ecological and social aspects and their interactions relevant for the decision process, and (ii) holistic information management that supports consistent use of different information sources, provides meta-information as well as information on uncertainties throughout the planning process.

  17. Dominant forest tree species are potentially vulnerable to climate change over large portions of their range even at high latitudes.

    PubMed

    Périé, Catherine; de Blois, Sylvie

    2016-01-01

    Projecting suitable conditions for a species as a function of future climate provides a reasonable, although admittedly imperfect, spatially explicit estimate of species vulnerability associated with climate change. Projections emphasizing range shifts at continental scale, however, can mask contrasting patterns at local or regional scale where management and policy decisions are made. Moreover, models usually show potential for areas to become climatically unsuitable, remain suitable, or become suitable for a particular species with climate change, but each of these outcomes raises markedly different ecological and management issues. Managing forest decline at sites where climatic stress is projected to increase is likely to be the most immediate challenge resulting from climate change. Here we assess habitat suitability with climate change for five dominant tree species of eastern North American forests, focusing on areas of greatest vulnerability (loss of suitability in the baseline range) in Quebec (Canada) rather than opportunities (increase in suitability). Results show that these species are at risk of maladaptation over a remarkably large proportion of their baseline range. Depending on species, 5-21% of currently climatically suitable habitats are projected to be at risk of becoming unsuitable. This suggests that species that have traditionally defined whole regional vegetation assemblages could become less adapted to these regions, with significant impact on ecosystems and forest economy. In spite of their well-recognised limitations and the uncertainty that remains, regionally-explicit risk assessment approaches remain one of the best options to convey that message and the need for climate policies and forest management adaptation strategies.

  18. Models for Forest Ecosystem Management: A European Perspective

    PubMed Central

    Pretzsch, H.; Grote, R.; Reineking, B.; Rötzer, Th.; Seifert, St.

    2008-01-01

    Background Forest management in Europe is committed to sustainability. In the face of climate change and accompanying risks, however, planning in order to achieve this aim becomes increasingly challenging, underlining the need for new and innovative methods. Models potentially integrate a wide range of system knowledge and present scenarios of variables important for any management decision. In the past, however, model development has mainly focused on specific purposes whereas today we are increasingly aware of the need for the whole range of information that can be provided by models. It is therefore assumed helpful to review the various approaches that are available for specific tasks and to discuss how they can be used for future management strategies. Scope Here we develop a concept for the role of models in forest ecosystem management based on historical analyses. Five paradigms of forest management are identified: (1) multiple uses, (2) dominant use, (3) environmentally sensitive multiple uses, (4) full ecosystem approach and (5) eco-regional perspective. An overview of model approaches is given that is dedicated to this purpose and to developments of different kinds of approaches. It is discussed how these models can contribute to goal setting, decision support and development of guidelines for forestry operations. Furthermore, it is shown how scenario analysis, including stand and landscape visualization, can be used to depict alternatives, make long-term consequences of different options transparent, and ease participation of different stakeholder groups and education. Conclusions In our opinion, the current challenge of forest ecosystem management in Europe is to integrate system knowledge from different temporal and spatial scales and from various disciplines. For this purpose, using a set of models with different focus that can be selected from a kind of toolbox according to particular needs is more promising than developing one overarching model, covering ecological, production and landscape issues equally well. PMID:17954471

  19. Uav and GIS Based Tool for Collection and Propagation of Seeds Material - First Results

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stereńczak, K.; Mroczek, P.; Jastrzębowski, S.; Krok, G.; Lisańczuk, M.; Klisz, M.; Kantorowicz, W.

    2016-06-01

    Seed management carried out by The State Forests National Forest Holding is an integral part of rational forest management. Seed collection takes place mainly from stands belonging to first category of forest reproductive material, which is the largest seed base in Poland. In smaller amount, seeds are collected in selective objects of highest forest reproductive material category (selected seed stands, seed orchards). The previous estimation methods of seed crop were based on visual assessment of cones in the stands for their harvest. Following the rules of FRM transfer is additional difficulty of rational seed management which limits the possibility of the use of planting material in Poland. Statements concerning forecast of seed crop and monitoring of seed quality is based on annual reports from the State Forest Service. Forest Research Institute is responsible for preparing and publishing above-mentioned statements. A small extent of its automatization and optimization is a large disadvantage of this procedure. In order to make this process more effective web-based GIS application was designed. Its main performance will give a possibility to upload present-day information on seed efficiency, their spatial pattern and availability. Currently this system is under preparation. As a result, the project team will get a possibility to increase participation of seed material collected from selected seed base and to share good practices on this issue in more efficient way. In the future this will make it possible to obtain greater genetic gain of selection strategy. Additionally, first results presented in literature showed possible use of unmanned aerial system/vehicle (UAS/V) for supporting of seed crop forecast procedure.

  20. Potential Effects of Drought on Tree Dieback in Great Britain and Implications for Forest Management in Adaptation to Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yu, Jianjun; Berry, Pam

    2017-04-01

    The drought and heat stress has alerted the composition, structure and biogeography of forests globally, whilst the projected severe and widespread droughts are potentially increasing. This challenges the sustainable forest management to better cope with future climate and maintain the forest ecosystem functions and services. Many studies have investigated the climate change impacts on forest ecosystem but less considered the climate extremes like drought. In this study, we implement a dynamic ecosystem model based on a version of LPJ-GUESS parameterized with European tree species and apply to Great Britain at a finer spatial resolution of 5*5 km. The model runs for the baseline from 1961 to 2011 and projects to the latter 21st century using 100 climate scenarios generated from MaRIUS project to tackle the climate model uncertainty. We will show the potential impacts of climate change on forest ecosystem and vegetation transition in Great Britain by comparing the modelled conditions in the 2030s and the 2080s relative to the baseline. In particular, by analyzing the modelled tree mortality, we will show the tree dieback patterns in response to drought for various species, and assess their drought vulnerability across Great Britain. We also use species distribution modelling to project the suitable climate space for selected tree species using the same climate scenarios. Aided by these two modelling approaches and based on the corresponding modelling results, we will discuss the implications for adaptation strategy for forest management, especially in extreme drought conditions. The gained knowledge and lessons for Great Britain are considered to be transferable in many other regions.

  1. Effects of wildlife forestry on abundance of breeding birds in bottomland hardwood forests of Louisiana

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Norris, Jennifer L.; Chamberlain, Michael J.; Twedt, Daniel J.

    2009-01-01

    Effects of silvicultural activities on birds are of increasing interest because of documented national declines in breeding bird populations for some species and the potential that these declines are in part due to changes in forest habitat. Silviculturally induced disturbances have been advocated as a means to achieve suitable forest conditions for priority wildlife species in bottomland hardwood forests. We evaluated how silvicultural activities on conservation lands in bottomland hardwood forests of Louisiana, USA, influenced species-specific densities of breeding birds. Our data were from independent studies, which used standardized point-count surveys for breeding birds in 124 bottomland hardwood forest stands on 12 management areas. We used Program DISTANCE 5.0, Release 2.0 (Thomas et al. 2006) to estimate density for 43 species with > 50 detections. For 36 of those species we compared density estimates among harvest regimes (individual selection, group selection, extensive harvest, and no harvest). We observed 10 species with similar densities in those harvest regimes compared with densities in stands not harvested. However, we observed 10 species that were negatively impacted by harvest with greater densities in stands not harvested, 9 species with greater densities in individual selection stands, 4 species with greater densities in group selection stands, and 4 species with greater densities in stands receiving an extensive harvest (e.g., > 40% canopy removal). Differences in intensity of harvest influenced densities of breeding birds. Moreover, community-wide avian conservation values of stands subjected to individual and group selection, and stands not harvested, were similar to each other and greater than that of stands subjected to extensive harvest that removed > 40% canopy cover. These results have implications for managers estimating breeding bird populations, in addition to predicting changes in bird communities as a result of prescribed and future forest management practices.

  2. A vertically discretised canopy description for ORCHIDEE (SVN r2290) and the modifications to the energy, water and carbon fluxes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Naudts, K.; Ryder, J.; McGrath, M. J.; Otto, J.; Chen, Y.; Valade, A.; Bellasen, V.; Berhongaray, G.; Bönisch, G.; Campioli, M.; Ghattas, J.; De Groote, T.; Haverd, V.; Kattge, J.; MacBean, N.; Maignan, F.; Merilä, P.; Penuelas, J.; Peylin, P.; Pinty, B.; Pretzsch, H.; Schulze, E. D.; Solyga, D.; Vuichard, N.; Yan, Y.; Luyssaert, S.

    2015-07-01

    Since 70 % of global forests are managed and forests impact the global carbon cycle and the energy exchange with the overlying atmosphere, forest management has the potential to mitigate climate change. Yet, none of the land-surface models used in Earth system models, and therefore none of today's predictions of future climate, accounts for the interactions between climate and forest management. We addressed this gap in modelling capability by developing and parametrising a version of the ORCHIDEE land-surface model to simulate the biogeochemical and biophysical effects of forest management. The most significant changes between the new branch called ORCHIDEE-CAN (SVN r2290) and the trunk version of ORCHIDEE (SVN r2243) are the allometric-based allocation of carbon to leaf, root, wood, fruit and reserve pools; the transmittance, absorbance and reflectance of radiation within the canopy; and the vertical discretisation of the energy budget calculations. In addition, conceptual changes were introduced towards a better process representation for the interaction of radiation with snow, the hydraulic architecture of plants, the representation of forest management and a numerical solution for the photosynthesis formalism of Farquhar, von Caemmerer and Berry. For consistency reasons, these changes were extensively linked throughout the code. Parametrisation was revisited after introducing 12 new parameter sets that represent specific tree species or genera rather than a group of often distantly related or even unrelated species, as is the case in widely used plant functional types. Performance of the new model was compared against the trunk and validated against independent spatially explicit data for basal area, tree height, canopy structure, gross primary production (GPP), albedo and evapotranspiration over Europe. For all tested variables, ORCHIDEE-CAN outperformed the trunk regarding its ability to reproduce large-scale spatial patterns as well as their inter-annual variability over Europe. Depending on the data stream, ORCHIDEE-CAN had a 67 to 92 % chance to reproduce the spatial and temporal variability of the validation data.

  3. Effects of fire on spotted owl site occupancy in a late-successional forest

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Roberts, Susan L.; van Wagtendonk, Jan W.; Miles, A. Keith; Kelt, Douglas A.

    2011-01-01

    The spotted owl (Strix occidentalis) is a late-successional forest dependent species that is sensitive to forest management practices throughout its range. An increase in the frequency and spatial extent of standreplacing fires in western North America has prompted concern for the persistence of spotted owls and other sensitive late-successional forest associated species. However, there is sparse information on the effects of fire on spotted owls to guide conservation policies. In 2004-2005, we surveyed for California spotted owls during the breeding season at 32 random sites (16 burned, 16 unburned) throughout late-successional montane forest in Yosemite National Park, California. Our burned areas burned at all severities, but predominately involved low to moderate fire severity. Based on an information theoretic approach, spotted owl detection and occupancy rates were similar between burned and unburned sites. Nest and roost site occupancy was best explained by a model that combined total tree basal area (positive effect) with cover by coarse woody debris (negative effect). The density estimates of California spotted owl pairs were similar in burned and unburned forests, and the overall mean density estimate for Yosemite was higher than previously reported for montane forests. Our results indicate that low to moderate severity fires, historically common within montane forests of the Sierra Nevada, California, maintain habitat characteristics essential for spotted owl site occupancy. These results suggest that managed fires that emulate the historic fire regime of these forests may maintain spotted owl habitat and protect this species from the effects of future catastrophic fires.

  4. Simulating forest management and its effect on landscape pattern

    Treesearch

    Eric J. Gustafson

    2017-01-01

    Landscapes are characterized by their structure (the spatial arrangement of landscape elements), their ecological function (how ecological processes operate within that structure), and the dynamics of change (disturbance and recovery). Thus, understanding the dynamic nature of landscapes and predicting their future dynamics are of particular emphasis. Landscape change...

  5. The economic significance of mortality in old-growth Douglas-fir management.

    Treesearch

    R.O. McMahon

    1961-01-01

    Current mortality in the Douglas-fir subregion, exclusive of catastrophic mortality, approximates a billion feet a year. The Forest Service report "Timber Resources for America's Future" recommended "...utilizing a substantial portion of the unsalvaged mortality loss..." as one means of permanently increasing the Nation's timber supply and...

  6. Distribution of Pacific Marten in Coastal Oregon

    Treesearch

    Katie M Moriarty; John D Bailey; Sharon E Smythe; Jake Verschuyl

    2016-01-01

    Information on the distribution of rare and little known species is critical for managers and biologists challenged with species conservation in an uncertain future. Pacific Martens (Martes caurina) historically resided throughout Oregon and northern California’s coastal forests, but were considered extinct until 1996 when a population in northern...

  7. Fire, Drought, and Forest Management Influences on Pine/Hardwood Ecosystems in the Southern Appalachians

    Treesearch

    J.M. Vose; B.D. Clinton; W.T. Swank

    1993-01-01

    Establishment and maintenance of pitch pine/hardwood ecosystems in the southern Appalachians depends on intense wildfire. These ecosystems typically have a substantial evergreen shrub component (Kalmia latifolia) which limits regeneration of future overstory species. Wildfires provide microsite conditions conducive to pine regeneration and reduce...

  8. Predicting the unpredictable: potential climate change impacts on vegetation in the Pacific Northwest

    Treesearch

    Marie Oliver; David W. Peterson; Becky Kerns

    2016-01-01

    Earth's climate is changing, as evidenced by warming temperatures, increased temperature variability, fluctuating precipitation patterns, and climate-related environmental disturbances. And with considerable uncertainty about the future, Forest Service land managers are now considering climate change adaptation in their planning efforts. They want practical...

  9. Primates and their habitats in northern Colombia with recommendations for future management and research

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Scott, Norman J.; Struhsaker, Thomas T.; Glander, Kenneth; Chiriví, Hernano

    1976-01-01

    This report covers a survey of forests and wild primates carried out by its authors in northern Colombia during May, July, and August 1974. The results of a 1973 field report on this report by Bernstein et al. (1) are also included.

  10. Management of white grubs in forest nurseries

    Treesearch

    David Smitley

    2010-01-01

    In Michigan, the most important white grub pests of nursery seedlings are European chafer beetle (Rhizotrogus majalis) and June beetles (Phyllophaga spp.). If damage is observed and white grubs found, beds can be protected from future damage with imidacloprid applied as Discus or Marathon once per year in June or July.

  11. Coping with the gypsy moth on new frontiers of infestation

    Treesearch

    David A. Gansner; Owen W. Herrick; Garland N. Mason; Kurt W. Gottschalk

    1987-01-01

    Forest managers on new frontiers of infestation are searching for better ways to cope with the gypsy moth (Lymantria dispar). Presented herea are information and guidelines for remedial action to minimize future losses. Methods for assessing potential stand defoliation (susceptibility) and mortality (vulnerability), monitoring insect populations, and...

  12. Forest response to rising CO 2 drives zonally asymmetric rainfall change over tropical land

    DOE PAGES

    Kooperman, Gabriel J.; Chen, Yang; Hoffman, Forrest M.; ...

    2018-04-27

    Understanding how anthropogenic CO 2 emissions will influence future precipitation is critical for sustainably managing ecosystems, particularly for drought-sensitive tropical forests. Although tropical precipitation change remains uncertain, nearly all models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 predict a strengthening zonal precipitation asymmetry by 2100, with relative increases over Asian and African tropical forests and decreases over South American forests. Here we show that the plant physiological response to increasing CO 2 is a primary mechanism responsible for this pattern. Applying a simulation design in the Community Earth System Model in which CO 2 increases are isolated over individualmore » continents, we demonstrate that different circulation, moisture and stability changes arise over each continent due to declines in stomatal conductance and transpiration. The sum of local atmospheric responses over individual continents explains the pan-tropical precipitation asymmetry. Our analysis suggests that South American forests may be more vulnerable to rising CO 2 than Asian or African forests.« less

  13. Forest response to rising CO2 drives zonally asymmetric rainfall change over tropical land

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kooperman, Gabriel J.; Chen, Yang; Hoffman, Forrest M.; Koven, Charles D.; Lindsay, Keith; Pritchard, Michael S.; Swann, Abigail L. S.; Randerson, James T.

    2018-05-01

    Understanding how anthropogenic CO2 emissions will influence future precipitation is critical for sustainably managing ecosystems, particularly for drought-sensitive tropical forests. Although tropical precipitation change remains uncertain, nearly all models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 predict a strengthening zonal precipitation asymmetry by 2100, with relative increases over Asian and African tropical forests and decreases over South American forests. Here we show that the plant physiological response to increasing CO2 is a primary mechanism responsible for this pattern. Applying a simulation design in the Community Earth System Model in which CO2 increases are isolated over individual continents, we demonstrate that different circulation, moisture and stability changes arise over each continent due to declines in stomatal conductance and transpiration. The sum of local atmospheric responses over individual continents explains the pan-tropical precipitation asymmetry. Our analysis suggests that South American forests may be more vulnerable to rising CO2 than Asian or African forests.

  14. Assessing the resilience of Norway spruce forests through a model-based reanalysis of thinning trials☆

    PubMed Central

    Seidl, Rupert; Vigl, Friedrich; Rössler, Günter; Neumann, Markus; Rammer, Werner

    2017-01-01

    As a result of a rapidly changing climate the resilience of forests is an increasingly important property for ecosystem management. Recent efforts have improved the theoretical understanding of resilience, yet its operational quantification remains challenging. Furthermore, there is growing awareness that resilience is not only a means to addressing the consequences of climate change but is also affected by it, necessitating a better understanding of the climate sensitivity of resilience. Quantifying current and future resilience is thus an important step towards mainstreaming resilience thinking into ecosystem management. Here, we present a novel approach for quantifying forest resilience from thinning trials, and assess the climate sensitivity of resilience using process-based ecosystem modeling. We reinterpret the wide range of removal intensities and frequencies in thinning trials as an experimental gradient of perturbation, and estimate resilience as the recovery rate after perturbation. Our specific objectives were (i) to determine how resilience varies with stand and site conditions, (ii) to assess the climate sensitivity of resilience across a range of potential future climate scenarios, and (iii) to evaluate the robustness of resilience estimates to different focal indicators and assessment methodologies. We analyzed three long-term thinning trials in Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) forests across an elevation gradient in Austria, evaluating and applying the individual-based process model iLand. The resilience of Norway spruce was highest at the montane site, and decreased at lower elevations. Resilience also decreased with increasing stand age and basal area. The effects of climate change were strongly context-dependent: At the montane site, where precipitation levels were ample even under climate change, warming increased resilience in all scenarios. At lower elevations, however, rising temperatures decreased resilience, particularly at precipitation levels below 750–800 mm. Our results were largely robust to different focal variables and resilience definitions. Based on our findings management can improve the capacity to recover from partial disturbances by avoiding overmature and overstocked conditions. At increasingly water limited sites a strongly decreasing resilience of Norway spruce will require a shift towards tree species better adapted to the expected future conditions. PMID:28860674

  15. 25 CFR 163.11 - Forest management planning and sustained yield management.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-04-01

    ... GENERAL FORESTRY REGULATIONS Forest Management and Operations § 163.11 Forest management planning and... 25 Indians 1 2011-04-01 2011-04-01 false Forest management planning and sustained yield management... management planning for Indian forest land shall be carried out through participation in the development and...

  16. Repeated wildfires alter forest recovery of mixed-conifer ecosystems.

    PubMed

    Stevens-Rumann, Camille; Morgan, Penelope

    2016-09-01

    Most models project warmer and drier climates that will contribute to larger and more frequent wildfires. However, it remains unknown how repeated wildfires alter post-fire successional patterns and forest structure. Here, we test the hypothesis that the number of wildfires, as well as the order and severity of wildfire events interact to alter forest structure and vegetation recovery and implications for vegetation management. In 2014, we examined forest structure, composition, and tree regeneration in stands that burned 1-18 yr before a subsequent 2007 wildfire. Three important findings emerged: (1) Repeatedly burned forests had 15% less woody surface fuels and 31% lower tree seedling densities compared with forests that only experienced one recent wildfire. These repeatedly burned areas are recovering differently than sites burned once, which may lead to alternative ecosystem structure. (2) Order of burn severity (high followed by low severity compared with low followed by high severity) did influence forest characteristics. When low burn severity followed high, forests had 60% lower canopy closure and total basal area with 92% fewer tree seedlings than when high burn severity followed low. (3) Time between fires had no effect on most variables measured following the second fire except large woody fuels, canopy closure and tree seedling density. We conclude that repeatedly burned areas meet many vegetation management objectives of reduced fuel loads and moderate tree seedling densities. These differences in forest structure, composition, and tree regeneration have implications not only for the trajectories of these forests, but may reduce fire intensity and burn severity of subsequent wildfires and may be used in conjunction with future fire suppression tactics. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

  17. A feasibility study: Forest Fire Advanced System Technology (FFAST)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mcleod, R. G.; Martin, T. Z.; Warren, J.

    1983-01-01

    The National Aeronautics and Space Administration/Jet Propulsion Laboratory and the United States Department of Agriculture Forest Service completed a feasibility study that examined the potential uses of advanced technology in forest fires mapping and detection. The current and future (1990's) information needs in forest fire management were determined through interviews. Analysis shows that integrated information gathering and processing is needed. The emerging technologies that were surveyed and identified as possible candidates for use in an end to end system include ""push broom'' sensor arrays, automatic georeferencing, satellite communication links, near real or real time image processing, and data integration. Matching the user requirements and the technologies yielded a ""strawman'' system configuration. The feasibility study recommends and outlines the implementation of the next phase for this project, a two year, conceptual design phase to define a system that warrants continued development.

  18. Ditch network maintenance in peat-dominated boreal forests: Review and analysis of water quality management options.

    PubMed

    Nieminen, Mika; Piirainen, Sirpa; Sikström, Ulf; Löfgren, Stefan; Marttila, Hannu; Sarkkola, Sakari; Laurén, Ari; Finér, Leena

    2018-03-27

    The objective of this study was to evaluate the potential of different water management options to mitigate sediment and nutrient exports from ditch network maintenance (DNM) areas in boreal peatland forests. Available literature was reviewed, past data reanalyzed, effects of drainage intensity modeled, and major research gaps identified. The results indicate that excess downstream loads may be difficult to prevent. Water protection structures constructed to capture eroded matter are either inefficient (sedimentation ponds) or difficult to apply (wetland buffers). It may be more efficient to decrease erosion, either by limiting peak water velocity (dam structures) or by adjusting ditch depth and spacing to enable satisfactory drainage without exposing the mineral soil below peat. Future research should be directed towards the effects of ditch breaks and adjusted ditch depth and spacing in managing water quality in DNM areas.

  19. Adapting to the reality of climate change at Glacier National Park, Montana, USA

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Fagre, Daniel B.

    2007-01-01

    Ecosystem modeling of possible future changes in the GNP mountain environments suggest that increased tree growth rates and evapotranspiration will reduce soil moisture and streamflow. The drier forests, with more wood, will burn more frequently and with greater severity, leading to degra- dation in air quality and increased risk to people and infrastructure. Management of forest fires is an important issue in the arid western United States. In 2003, 13% of GNP’s 4,082 km 2 was burned in three large fires and numerous smaller fires. Managers can accomplish some of their goals, such as preserving threatened wildlife populations, by altering their management of fires. In 2003, intense efforts were successfully made to divert the fires away from valuable grizzly bear ( Ursus arctos horribilis ) habitat that contained huckleberry plants ( Vaccinium spp .) necessary to ensure bear survival through the winter.

  20. Modelling deforestation trends in Costa Rica and predicting future forest sustainability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stan, Kayla; Sanchez, Arturo

    2017-04-01

    Deforestation in Costa Rica has historically varied between the original degradation of primary forest due to land-based industries, followed by secondary regrowth. The regeneration of forests largely came into effect with incentive based programs such as payments for ecosystem services, creation of large protected areas, and a new industry of ecotourism in the country. Given the changes that have occurred within the last 50 years from heavy deforestation pressures to regeneration patterns, and a correlation between deforestation and policy/economic influences, it is important to understand the historical changes that have occurred and how the forests will change in the future, which provides the objective of this study. Future projections are increasingly important given changes in the global socio-political structure, climatic change, and the ever increasing globalization of capitalistic endeavours. The trajectory of the forest in the country can also serve as a way to track both these global pressures on the natural landscape in Costa Rica, and as a proxy for how to manage deforestation in other similar political and geographic areas of the tropics. To determine the historical deforestation trends and link them to the different biogeophysical and socioeconomic variables, forest maps from 1960-2013 were used in the Dinamica Environment for Geoprocessing Objects (Dinamica EGO) to create deforestation models for Costa Rica. Dinamica EGO is a cellular automata model which utilizes Bayesian statistics and expert opinion to replicate both patterns and quantities of land cover change over time with both static and dynamic variables. Additional legislative variables can be used to track how political pressures shift deforestation both spatially and temporally. The historical model was built and analyzed for changes in landscape metrics such as patch size and distance between 1960 and 2013. After validation of the model's ability to replicate patterns, first between 2005 and 2013, and then back to 1997, a future model was created to determine future country wide changes. There was a significant decrease in patch size between 1960 and 2013 in forests and a non-significant decrease is patch size for non-forests. The historical model validated at 85% accuracy within 600m for both the 2005-2013 and 1997-2005 iterations. Future scenario building determines the point in time and area at which the forest area equilibrates, indicating the approximate maximal forest extent under extreme scenarios. None of the scenarios were sufficiently damaging to decrease the forest area below present day levels. The Puntarenas province is the only region which had deforestation in the most extreme scenario. Using the inclusion and exclusion of protected areas within the model, it was determined which of the parks suffers from high pressure of deforestation should there be policy removing protected area status. These parks are predominantly limited to small areas on coastal regions, while the large central parks suffer relatively little pressure from deforestation. This indicates that even under the most extreme scenarios, the secondary forests are likely to remain permanently and continue to regenerate as time progresses.

  1. Simulating high spatial resolution high severity burned area in Sierra Nevada forests for California Spotted Owl habitat climate change risk assessment and management.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Keyser, A.; Westerling, A. L.; Jones, G.; Peery, M. Z.

    2017-12-01

    Sierra Nevada forests have experienced an increase in very large fires with significant areas of high burn severity, such as the Rim (2013) and King (2014) fires, that have impacted habitat of endangered species such as the California spotted owl. In order to support land manager forest management planning and risk assessment activities, we used historical wildfire histories from the Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity project and gridded hydroclimate and land surface characteristics data to develope statistical models to simulate the frequency, location and extent of high severity burned area in Sierra Nevada forest wildfires as functions of climate and land surface characteristics. We define high severity here as BA90 area: the area comprising patches with ninety percent or more basal area killed within a larger fire. We developed a system of statistical models to characterize the probability of large fire occurrence, the probability of significant BA90 area present given a large fire, and the total extent of BA90 area in a fire on a 1/16 degree lat/lon grid over the Sierra Nevada. Repeated draws from binomial and generalized pareto distributions using these probabilities generated a library of simulated histories of high severity fire for a range of near (50 yr) future climate and fuels management scenarios. Fuels management scenarios were provided by USFS Region 5. Simulated BA90 area was then downscaled to 30 m resolution using a statistical model we developed using Random Forest techniques to estimate the probability of adjacent 30m pixels burning with ninety percent basal kill as a function of fire size and vegetation and topographic features. The result is a library of simulated high resolution maps of BA90 burned areas for a range of climate and fuels management scenarios with which we estimated conditional probabilities of owl nesting sites being impacted by high severity wildfire.

  2. Dynamics of Murray-Darling floodplain forests under multiple stressors: The past, present, and future of an Australian icon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mac Nally, Ralph; Cunningham, Shaun C.; Baker, Patrick J.; Horner, Gillis J.; Thomson, James R.

    2011-12-01

    We review the human actions, proximal stressors and ecological responses for floodplain forests Australia's largest river system—the Murray-Darling Basin. A conceptual model for the floodplain forests was built from extensive published information and some unpublished results for the system, which should provide a basis for understanding, studying and managing the ecology of floodplains that face similar environmental stresses. Since European settlement, lowlands areas of the basin have been extensively cleared for agriculture and remnant forests heavily harvested for timber. The most significant human intervention is modification of river flows, and the reduction in frequency, duration and timing of flooding, which are compounded by climate change (higher temperatures and reduced rainfall) and deteriorating groundwater conditions (depth and salinity). This has created unfavorable conditions for all life-history stages of the dominant floodplain tree (Eucalyptus camaldulensis Dehnh.). Lack of extensive flooding has led to widespread dieback across the Murray River floodplain (currently 79% by area). Management for timber resources has altered the structure of these forests from one dominated by large, widely spreading trees to mixed-aged stands of smaller pole trees. Reductions in numbers of birds and other vertebrates followed the decline in habitat quality (hollow-bearing trees, fallen timber). Restoration of these forests is dependent on substantial increases in the frequency and extent of flooding, improvements in groundwater conditions, re-establishing a diversity of forest structures, removal of grazing and consideration of these interacting stressors.

  3. Integrated Decision Tools for Sustainable Watershed/Ground Water and Crop Health using Predictive Weather, Remote Sensing, and Irrigation Decision Tools

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jones, A. S.; Andales, A.; McGovern, C.; Smith, G. E. B.; David, O.; Fletcher, S. J.

    2017-12-01

    US agricultural and Govt. lands have a unique co-dependent relationship, particularly in the Western US. More than 30% of all irrigated US agricultural output comes from lands sustained by the Ogallala Aquifer in the western Great Plains. Six US Forest Service National Grasslands reside within the aquifer region, consisting of over 375,000 ha (3,759 km2) of USFS managed lands. Likewise, National Forest lands are the headwaters to many intensive agricultural regions. Our Ogallala Aquifer team is enhancing crop irrigation decision tools with predictive weather and remote sensing data to better manage water for irrigated crops within these regions. An integrated multi-model software framework is used to link irrigation decision tools, resulting in positive management benefits on natural water resources. Teams and teams-of-teams can build upon these multi-disciplinary multi-faceted modeling capabilities. For example, the CSU Catalyst for Innovative Partnerships program has formed a new multidisciplinary team that will address "Rural Wealth Creation" focusing on the many integrated links between economic, agricultural production and management, natural resource availabilities, and key social aspects of govt. policy recommendations. By enhancing tools like these with predictive weather and other related data (like in situ measurements, hydrologic models, remotely sensed data sets, and (in the near future) linking to agro-economic and life cycle assessment models) this work demonstrates an integrated data-driven future vision of inter-meshed dynamic systems that can address challenging multi-system problems. We will present the present state of the work and opportunities for future involvement.

  4. Vulnerabilities of ecosystems across U.S. National Parks to biome shifts, wildfire changes, and invasive species due to climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gonzalez, P.; Eigenbrod, F.; Early, R.; Wang, F.; Notaro, M.; Williams, J. W.

    2016-12-01

    U.S. national parks conserve globally unique biodiversity. Yet, historical impacts of climate change and future vulnerabilities threaten species and ecosystems across this system of protected areas. Spatial analyses of historical climate and downscaled future climate projections show climate trends across the system. Spatial analyses of vegetation and wildfire (using a dynamic global vegetation model), habitat fragmentation (using remote sensing-derived land cover), and invasive species introduction and establishment show patterns of future vulnerability across the 50 U.S. states and 412 U.S. national parks. Results reveal high historical and projected temperature increases and precipitation changes, projected increases of wildfire across western U.S. national parks, high vulnerability to biome shifts and habitat fragmentation of up to one-third of National Park System area, and high vulnerability to invasive species of one-ninth of National Park System area. Ecosystems in the Sierra Nevada, Cascade Range, desert Southwest, and Laurentian Great Lakes are highly vulnerable to upslope and poleward shifts of the North America sequence of biomes: temperate shrubland - temperate broadleaf forest - temperate mixed forest - temperate conifer forest - subalpine and boreal forest - alpine and tundra. These areas include Grand Canyon, Mount Rainier, and Yosemite National Parks. The southwestern U.S., including Grand Canyon and Sequoia National Parks, is vulnerable to increases in wildfire. The eastern and midwestern U.S., including Great Smokey Mountains and Voyageurs National Parks, are highly vulnerable to invasive species. These results identify vulnerable areas and potential refugia to help prioritize areas for future natural resource management actions and biodiversity conservation in U.S. national parks.

  5. Proximal Association of Land Management Preferences: Evidence from Family Forest Owners

    PubMed Central

    Aguilar, Francisco X.; Cai, Zhen; Butler, Brett

    2017-01-01

    Individual behavior is influenced by factors intrinsic to the decision-maker but also associated with other individuals and their ownerships with such relationship intensified by geographic proximity. The land management literature is scarce in the spatially integrated analysis of biophysical and socio-economic data. Localized land management decisions are likely driven by spatially-explicit but often unobserved resource conditions, influenced by an individual’s own characteristics, proximal lands and fellow owners. This study examined stated choices over the management of family-owned forests as an example of a resource that captures strong pecuniary and non-pecuniary values with identifiable decision makers. An autoregressive model controlled for spatially autocorrelated willingness-to-harvest (WTH) responses using a sample of residential and absentee family forest owners from the U.S. State of Missouri. WTH responses were largely explained by affective, cognitive and experience variables including timber production objectives and past harvest experience. Demographic variables, including income and age, were associated with WTH and helped define socially-proximal groups. The group of closest identity was comprised of resident males over 55 years of age with annual income of at least $50,000. Spatially-explicit models showed that indirect impacts, capturing spillover associations, on average accounted for 14% of total marginal impacts among statistically significant explanatory variables. We argue that not all proximal family forest owners are equal and owners-in-absentia have discernible differences in WTH preferences with important implications for public policy and future research. PMID:28060960

  6. Natural disturbance impacts on ecosystem services and biodiversity in temperate and boreal forests.

    PubMed

    Thom, Dominik; Seidl, Rupert

    2016-08-01

    In many parts of the world forest disturbance regimes have intensified recently, and future climatic changes are expected to amplify this development further in the coming decades. These changes are increasingly challenging the main objectives of forest ecosystem management, which are to provide ecosystem services sustainably to society and maintain the biological diversity of forests. Yet a comprehensive understanding of how disturbances affect these primary goals of ecosystem management is still lacking. We conducted a global literature review on the impact of three of the most important disturbance agents (fire, wind, and bark beetles) on 13 different ecosystem services and three indicators of biodiversity in forests of the boreal, cool- and warm-temperate biomes. Our objectives were to (i) synthesize the effect of natural disturbances on a wide range of possible objectives of forest management, and (ii) investigate standardized effect sizes of disturbance for selected indicators via a quantitative meta-analysis. We screened a total of 1958 disturbance studies published between 1981 and 2013, and reviewed 478 in detail. We first investigated the overall effect of disturbances on individual ecosystem services and indicators of biodiversity by means of independence tests, and subsequently examined the effect size of disturbances on indicators of carbon storage and biodiversity by means of regression analysis. Additionally, we investigated the effect of commonly used approaches of disturbance management, i.e. salvage logging and prescribed burning. We found that disturbance impacts on ecosystem services are generally negative, an effect that was supported for all categories of ecosystem services, i.e. supporting, provisioning, regulating, and cultural services (P < 0.001). Indicators of biodiversity, i.e. species richness, habitat quality and diversity indices, on the other hand were found to be influenced positively by disturbance (P < 0.001). Our analyses thus reveal a 'disturbance paradox', documenting that disturbances can put ecosystem services at risk while simultaneously facilitating biodiversity. A detailed investigation of disturbance effect sizes on carbon storage and biodiversity further underlined these divergent effects of disturbance. While a disturbance event on average causes a decrease in total ecosystem carbon by 38.5% (standardized coefficient for stand-replacing disturbance), it on average increases overall species richness by 35.6%. Disturbance-management approaches such as salvage logging and prescribed burning were neither found significantly to mitigate negative effects on ecosystem services nor to enhance positive effects on biodiversity, and thus were not found to alleviate the disturbance paradox. Considering that climate change is expected to intensify natural disturbance regimes, our results indicate that biodiversity will generally benefit from such changes while a sustainable provisioning of ecosystem services might come increasingly under pressure. This underlines that disturbance risk and resilience require increased attention in ecosystem management in the future, and that new approaches to addressing the disturbance paradox in management are needed. © 2015 The Authors. Biological Reviews published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Cambridge Philosophical Society.

  7. Workshop proceedings: research and management in whitebark pine ecosystems

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kendall, Katherine C.; Coen, Brenda

    1994-01-01

    The purpose of this workshop is to exchange information on on-going and soon-to-be-initiated whitebark pine research and management projects. By doing so we hope to encourage future work on this valuable species. We also hope to promote the use of consistent methods for evaluation and investigation of whitebark pine, and to provide avenues of collaboration. Speakers will present information on a variety of topics related to whitebark pine management and research. Featured presentation topics include anthropomorphic utilization of whitepark pine forests, whitebark pine natural regeneration, blister rust and the decline of whitebark pine, blister rust resistance studies, ecological mapping of the species, restoration and management projects, and survey/monitoring techniques. Information gained from these presentations may hopefully be used in the planning of future projects for the conservation of whitebark pine.

  8. Fire risk and adaptation strategies in Northern Eurasian forests

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shvidenko, Anatoly; Schepaschenko, Dmitry

    2013-04-01

    On-going climatic changes substantially accelerate current fire regimes in Northern Eurasian ecosystems, particularly in forests. During 1998-2012, wildfires enveloped on average ~10.5 M ha year-1 in Russia with a large annual variation (between 3 and 30 M ha) and average direct carbon emissions at ~150 Tg C year-1. Catastrophic fires, which envelope large areas, spread in usually incombustible wetlands, escape from control and provide extraordinary negative impacts on ecosystems, biodiversity, economics, infrastructure, environment, and health of population, become a typical feature of the current fire regimes. There are new evidences of correlation between catastrophic fires and large-scale climatic anomalies at a continental scale. While current climatic predictions suggest the dramatic warming (at the average at 6-7 °C for the country and up to 10-12°C in some northern continental regions), any substantial increase of summer precipitation does not expected. Increase of dryness and instability of climate will impact fire risk and severity of consequences. Current models suggest a 2-3 fold increase of the number of fires by the end of this century in the boreal zone. They predict increases of the number of catastrophic fires; a significant increase in the intensity of fire and amount of consumed fuel; synergies between different types of disturbances (outbreaks of insects, unregulated anthropogenic impacts); acceleration of composition of the gas emissions due to enhanced soil burning. If boreal forests would become a typing element, the mass mortality of trees would increase fire risk and severity. Permafrost melting and subsequent change of hydrological regimes very likely will lead to the degradation and destruction of boreal forests, as well as to the widespread irreversible replacement of forests by other underproductive vegetation types. A significant feedback between warming and escalating fire regimes is very probable in Russia and particularly in the permafrost areas. Overall, Russia should expect a disproportionate escalation of fire regimes compared to increasing climatic fire danger. Thus, development and implementation of an efficient adaptation strategy is a pressing problem of current forest management of the country. An appropriate system of forest fire protection which would be able to meet challenges of future climates is a corner stone of such a strategy. We consider possible systems solutions of this complex problem including (1) integrated ecological and socio-economic analysis of current and future fire regimes; (2) regional requirements to and specific features of a new paradigm of forest fire protection in the boreal zone of Northern Eurasia; (3) anticipatory strategy of the prevention of large-scale disturbances in forests, including adaptation of forest landscapes to the future climates (regulation of tree composition; setup of relevant spatial structure of forest landscapes; etc.); (4) implementation of an effective system of forest monitoring as part of integrated observing systems; (5) transition to ecologically-friendly systems of industrial development of northern territories; (6) development of new/ improvement of existing legislation and institutional frameworks of forest management which would be satisfactory to react on challenges of climate change; and (6) international cooperation.

  9. Modeling wildfire incident complexity dynamics.

    PubMed

    Thompson, Matthew P

    2013-01-01

    Wildfire management in the United States and elsewhere is challenged by substantial uncertainty regarding the location and timing of fire events, the socioeconomic and ecological consequences of these events, and the costs of suppression. Escalating U.S. Forest Service suppression expenditures is of particular concern at a time of fiscal austerity as swelling fire management budgets lead to decreases for non-fire programs, and as the likelihood of disruptive within-season borrowing potentially increases. Thus there is a strong interest in better understanding factors influencing suppression decisions and in turn their influence on suppression costs. As a step in that direction, this paper presents a probabilistic analysis of geographic and temporal variation in incident management team response to wildfires. The specific focus is incident complexity dynamics through time for fires managed by the U.S. Forest Service. The modeling framework is based on the recognition that large wildfire management entails recurrent decisions across time in response to changing conditions, which can be represented as a stochastic dynamic system. Daily incident complexity dynamics are modeled according to a first-order Markov chain, with containment represented as an absorbing state. A statistically significant difference in complexity dynamics between Forest Service Regions is demonstrated. Incident complexity probability transition matrices and expected times until containment are presented at national and regional levels. Results of this analysis can help improve understanding of geographic variation in incident management and associated cost structures, and can be incorporated into future analyses examining the economic efficiency of wildfire management.

  10. Economic analysis of emerald ash borer (Coleoptera: Buprestidae) management options.

    PubMed

    Vannatta, A R; Hauer, R H; Schuettpelz, N M

    2012-02-01

    Emerald ash borer, Agrilus planipennis (Fairmaire) (Coleoptera: Buprestidae), plays a significant role in the health and extent of management of native North American ash species in urban forests. An economic analysis of management options was performed to aid decision makers in preparing for likely future infestations. Separate ash tree population valuations were derived from the i-Tree Streets program and the Council of Tree and Landscape Appraisers (CTLA) methodology. A relative economic analysis was used to compare a control option (do-nothing approach, only removing ash trees as they die) to three distinct management options: 1) preemptive removal of all ash trees over a 5 yr period, 2) preemptive removal of all ash trees and replacement with comparable nonash trees, or 3) treating the entire population of ash trees with insecticides to minimize mortality. For each valuation and management option, an annual analysis was performed for both the remaining ash tree population and those lost to emerald ash borer. Retention of ash trees using insecticide treatments typically retained greater urban forest value, followed by doing nothing (control), which was better than preemptive removal and replacement. Preemptive removal without tree replacement, which was the least expensive management option, also provided the lowest net urban forest value over the 20-yr simulation. A "no emerald ash borer" scenario was modeled to further serve as a benchmark for each management option and provide a level of economic justification for regulatory programs aimed at slowing the movement of emerald ash borer.

  11. Contrasting Spatial Patterns in Active-Fire and Fire-Suppressed Mediterranean Climate Old-Growth Mixed Conifer Forests

    PubMed Central

    Fry, Danny L.; Stephens, Scott L.; Collins, Brandon M.; North, Malcolm P.; Franco-Vizcaíno, Ernesto; Gill, Samantha J.

    2014-01-01

    In Mediterranean environments in western North America, historic fire regimes in frequent-fire conifer forests are highly variable both temporally and spatially. This complexity influenced forest structure and spatial patterns, but some of this diversity has been lost due to anthropogenic disruption of ecosystem processes, including fire. Information from reference forest sites can help management efforts to restore forests conditions that may be more resilient to future changes in disturbance regimes and climate. In this study, we characterize tree spatial patterns using four-ha stem maps from four old-growth, Jeffrey pine-mixed conifer forests, two with active-fire regimes in northwestern Mexico and two that experienced fire exclusion in the southern Sierra Nevada. Most of the trees were in patches, averaging six to 11 trees per patch at 0.007 to 0.014 ha−1, and occupied 27–46% of the study areas. Average canopy gap sizes (0.04 ha) covering 11–20% of the area were not significantly different among sites. The putative main effects of fire exclusion were higher densities of single trees in smaller size classes, larger proportion of trees (≥56%) in large patches (≥10 trees), and decreases in spatial complexity. While a homogenization of forest structure has been a typical result from fire exclusion, some similarities in patch, single tree, and gap attributes were maintained at these sites. These within-stand descriptions provide spatially relevant benchmarks from which to manage for structural heterogeneity in frequent-fire forest types. PMID:24586472

  12. PICUS v1.6 - enhancing the water cycle within a hybrid ecosystem model to assess the provision of drinking water in a changing climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schimmel, A.; Rammer, W.; Lexer, M. J.

    2012-04-01

    The PICUS model is a hybrid ecosystem model which is based on a 3D patch model and a physiological stand level production model. The model includes, among others, a submodel of bark beetle disturbances in Norway spruce and a management module allowing any silvicultural treatment to be mimicked realistically. It has been tested intensively for its ability to realistically reproduce tree growth and stand dynamics in complex structured mixed and mono-species temperate forest ecosystems. In several applications the models capacity to generate relevant forest related attributes which were subsequently fed into indicator systems to assess sustainable forest management under current and future climatic conditions has been proven. However, the relatively coarse monthly temporal resolution of the driving climate data as well as the process resolution of the major water relations within the simulated ecosystem hampered the inclusion of more detailed physiologically based assessments of drought conditions and water provisioning ecosystem services. In this contribution we present the improved model version PICUS v1.6 focusing on the newly implemented logic for the water cycle calculations. Transpiration, evaporation from leave surfaces and the forest floor, snow cover and snow melt as well as soil water dynamics in several soil horizons are covered. In enhancing the model overarching goal was to retain the large-scale applicability by keeping the input requirements to a minimum while improving the physiological foundation of water related ecosystem processes. The new model version is tested against empirical time series data. Future model applications are outlined.

  13. Missouri Ozark Forest Ecosystem Project: the experiment

    Treesearch

    Steven L. Sheriff

    2002-01-01

    Missouri Ozark Forest Ecosystem Project (MOFEP) is a unique experiment to learn about the impacts of management practices on a forest system. Three forest management practices (uneven-aged management, even-aged management, and no-harvest management) as practiced by the Missouri Department of Conservation were randomly assigned to nine forest management sites using a...

  14. Water, Forests, People: The Swedish Experience in Building Resilient Landscapes.

    PubMed

    Eriksson, Mats; Samuelson, Lotta; Jägrud, Linnéa; Mattsson, Eskil; Celander, Thorsten; Malmer, Anders; Bengtsson, Klas; Johansson, Olof; Schaaf, Nicolai; Svending, Ola; Tengberg, Anna

    2018-07-01

    A growing world population and rapid expansion of cities increase the pressure on basic resources such as water, food and energy. To safeguard the provision of these resources, restoration and sustainable management of landscapes is pivotal, including sustainable forest and water management. Sustainable forest management includes forest conservation, restoration, forestry and agroforestry practices. Interlinkages between forests and water are fundamental to moderate water budgets, stabilize runoff, reduce erosion and improve biodiversity and water quality. Sweden has gained substantial experience in sustainable forest management in the past century. Through significant restoration efforts, a largely depleted Swedish forest has transformed into a well-managed production forest within a century, leading to sustainable economic growth through the provision of forest products. More recently, ecosystem services are also included in management decisions. Such a transformation depends on broad stakeholder dialog, combined with an enabling institutional and policy environment. Based on seminars and workshops with a wide range of key stakeholders managing Sweden's forests and waters, this article draws lessons from the history of forest management in Sweden. These lessons are particularly relevant for countries in the Global South that currently experience similar challenges in forest and landscape management. The authors argue that an integrated landscape approach involving a broad array of sectors and stakeholders is needed to achieve sustainable forest and water management. Sustainable landscape management-integrating water, agriculture and forests-is imperative to achieving resilient socio-economic systems and landscapes.

  15. Applications of turbidity monitoring to forest management in California.

    PubMed

    Harris, Richard R; Sullivan, Kathleen; Cafferata, Peter H; Munn, John R; Faucher, Kevin M

    2007-09-01

    Many California streams have been adversely affected by sedimentation caused by historic and current land uses, including timber harvesting. The impacts of timber harvesting and logging transportation systems on erosion and sediment delivery can be directly measured, modeled, or inferred from water quality measurements. California regulatory agencies, researchers, and land owners have adopted turbidity monitoring to determine effects of forest management practices on suspended sediment loads and water quality at watershed, project, and site scales. Watershed-scale trends in sediment discharge and responses to current forest practices may be estimated from data collected at automated sampling stations that measure turbidity, stream flow, suspended sediment concentrations, and other water quality parameters. Future results from these studies will provide a basis for assessing the effectiveness of modern forest practice regulations in protecting water quality. At the project scale, manual sampling of water column turbidity during high stream flow events within and downstream from active timber harvest plans can identify emerging sediment sources. Remedial actions can then be taken by managers to prevent or mitigate water quality impacts. At the site scale, manual turbidity sampling during storms or high stream flow events at sites located upstream and downstream from new, upgraded, or decommissioned stream crossings has proven to be a valuable way to determine whether measures taken to prevent post-construction erosion and sediment production are effective. Turbidity monitoring at the project and site scales is therefore an important tool for adaptive management. Uncertainty regarding the effects of current forest practices must be resolved through watershed-scale experiments. In the short term, this uncertainty will stimulate increased use of project and site-scale monitoring.

  16. Prediction of Soil Erosion Rates in Japan where Heavily Forested Landscape with Unstable Terrain

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nanko, K.; Oguro, M.; Miura, S.; Masaki, T.

    2016-12-01

    Soil is fundamental for plant growth, water conservation, and sustainable forest management. Multidisciplinary interest in the role of the soil in areas such as biodiversity, ecosystem services, land degradation, and water security has been growing (Miura et al., 2015). Forest is usually protective land use from soil erosion because vegetation buffers rainfall power and erosivity. However, some types of forest in Japan show high susceptibility to soil erosion due to little ground cover and steep slopes exceeding thirty degree, especially young Japanese cypress (Chamaecyparis obtusa) plantations (Miura et al., 2002). This is a critical issue for sustainable forest management because C. obtusaplantations account for 10% of the total forest coverage in Japan (Forestry Agency, 2009). Prediction of soil erosion rates on nationwide scale is necessary to make decision for future forest management plan. To predict and map soil erosion rates across Japan, we applied three soil erosion models, RUSLE (Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation, Wischmeier and Smith, 1978), PESERA (Pan-European Soil Erosion Risk Assessment, Kirkby et al., 2003), and RMMF (Revised Morgan-Morgan-Finney, Morgan, 2001). The grid scale is 1-km. RUSLE and PESERA are most widely used erosion models today. RMMF includes interactions between rainfall and vegetation, such as canopy interception and ratio of canopy drainage in throughfall. Evaporated rainwater by canopy interception, generally accounts for 15-20% in annual rainfall, does not contribute soil erosion. Whereas, larger raindrops generated by canopy drainage produced higher splash erosion rates than gross rainfall (Nanko et al., 2008). Therefore, rainfall redistribution process in canopy should be considered to predict soil erosion rates in forested landscape. We compared the results from three erosion models and analyze the importance of environmental factors for the prediction of soil erosion rates. This research was supported by the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (S15-2-2) of the Ministry of the Environment, Japan.

  17. Forest management under changing climate conditions: Is timing a tool for Sustainable Forest Management? Relevant questions for research development

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    D'Aprile, Fabrizio; McShane, Paul; Tapper, Nigel

    2013-04-01

    Change of climate conditions influence energy fluxes applicable to forest ecosystems. These affect cycles of nutrients and materials, primary productivity of the ecosystem, biodiversity, ecological functionality and, consequently, carbon equilibria of the forest ecosystem. Temporal factors influence physical, biological, ecological, and climatic processes and functions. For example, seasonality, cycles, periodicity, and trends in climate variables; tree growth, forest growth, and forest metabolic activities (i.e., photosynthesis and respiration) are commonly known to be time-related. In tropical forests, the impacts of changing climate conditions may exceed temperature and/or precipitation thresholds critical to forest tree growth or health. Historically, forest management emphasises growth rates and financial returns as affected by species and site. Until recently, the influence of climate variability on growth dynamics has not been influential in forest planning and management. Under this system, especially in climatic and forest regions where most of species are stenoecious, periodical wood harvesting may occur in any phase of growth (increasing, decreasing, peak, and trough). This scenario presents four main situations: a) harvesting occurs when the rate of growth is decreasing: future productivity is damaged; the minimum biomass capital may be altered, and CO2 storage is negatively affected; b) harvesting occurs during a trough of the rate of growth: the minimum biomass capital necessary to preserve the resilience of the forest is damaged; the damage can be temporary (decades) or permanent; CO2 storage capacity is deficient - which may be read as an indirect emission of CO2 since the balance appears negative; c) harvesting occurs when the rate of growth is increasing: the planned wood mass can be used without compromising the resilience and recovery of the forest; CO2 storage remains increasing; d) harvesting occurs during a peak period of growth: the wood mass harvested can be even higher than planned, and the rate of CO2 storage can be above the average. A real risk for SFM under changing climatic conditions is that negative effects may be amplified; critical thresholds of temperature and/or rainfall for tree growth and stress may be exceeded with impacts on growth response, resilience, and CO2 balance that are not completely known. Furthermore, temporal changes in silvicultural and harvesting operations may lead to increased carbon emissions. Under this scenario and the consequent risks to SFM forestry operations should be planned or scheduled in periods when climate variables influencing tree growth and stress are within the relative thresholds. In this way, silvicultural operations and harvesting are going to be optimised to climate variability and forest growth responses, rather than just forest timber production.

  18. Impact of pinewood nematode in north america: present and future.

    PubMed

    Bergdahl, D R

    1988-04-01

    Bursaphelenchus xylophilus, pinewood nematode (PWN), is the most serious pest of pine forests in Japan, but in North America its role in pine wilt disease is still being studied. The PWN is known to infest many species of Pinus, with P. nigra, P. sylvestris, and P. thunbergii the most susceptible in the eastern United States. Because of its potential, several European countries (Finland, Norway, and Sweden) and Korea have established embargoes against the importation of coniferous wood from regions of the world known to be infested with the PWN. Although the PWN is not considered an economic pest in North American forests, the recent embargoes have established an impact on current forest management practices and an economic impact on North American export trade.

  19. Synergy of agroforestry and bottomland hardwood afforestation

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Twedt, D.J.; Portwood, J.; Clason, Terry R.

    2003-01-01

    Afforestation of bottomland hardwood forests has historically emphasized planting heavy-seeded tree species such as oak (Quercus spp.) and pecan (Caryaillinoensis) with little or no silvicultural management during stand development. Slow growth of these tree species, herbivory, competing vegetation, and limited seed dispersal, often result in restored sites that are slow to develop vertical vegetation structure and have limited tree diversity. Where soils and hydrology permit, agroforestry can provide transitional management that mitigates these historical limitations on converting cropland to forests. Planting short-rotation woody crops and intercropping using wide alleyways are two agroforestry practices that are well suited for transitional management. Weed control associated with agroforestry systems benefits planted trees by reducing competition. The resultant decrease in herbaceous cover suppresses small mammal populations and associated herbivory of trees and seeds. As a result, rapid vertical growth is possible that can 'train' under-planted, slower-growing, species and provide favorable environmental conditions for naturally invading trees. Finally, annual cropping of alleyways or rotational pulpwood harvest of woody crops provides income more rapidly than reliance on future revenue from traditional silviculture. Because of increased forest diversity, enhanced growth and development, and improved economic returns, we believe that using agroforestry as a transitional management strategy during afforestation provides greater benefits to landowners and to the environment than does traditional bottomland hardwood afforestation.

  20. Urban tree database and allometric equations

    Treesearch

    E. Gregory McPherson; Natalie S. van Doorn; Paula J.  Peper

    2016-01-01

    Information on urban tree growth underpins models used to calculate the effects of trees on the environment and human well-being. Maximum tree size and other growth data are used by urban forest managers, landscape architects, and planners to select trees most suitable to the amount of growing space, thereby reducing costly future conflicts between trees and...

  1. Shortleaf pine composition and structure in the United States

    Treesearch

    W. Keith Moser; Mark Hansen; William H. McWilliams; Raymond M. Sheffield

    2007-01-01

    Although shortleaf pine currently occupies a prominent position in many eastern forests, particularly on upland sites, many scientists and managers have expressed concern about the future of this species in the absence of the disturbance patterns that facilitated its establishment up to now. Reductions in timber harvesting and fire, in particular, may give the...

  2. Chapter 11: Dinkey north and south project

    Treesearch

    M North; R. Rojas

    2012-01-01

    Designing and implementing vegetation treatments that can move a forest landscape toward a desired future condition is often challenging. Faced with diverse stakeholder interests and the unknown effects of changing climate conditions, managers need to engage and build collaborative projects. One such effort is the Dinkey project designed to help restore a healthy,...

  3. The oak wilt situation

    Treesearch

    William H. Gillespie

    1971-01-01

    Although oak wilt has been studied for more than 30 years, there are many facets of the disease that are little understood. Continuing Federal-State cooperative studies are geared to predicting the overall effects of the disease on future forest management programs, but much additional research is needed before present control programs can be expanded or discarded in a...

  4. Southern regional report

    Treesearch

    Bryce J Stokes

    1997-01-01

    It appears as if many in wood procurement, forest management, operations, manufacturing, and sales in the Southern U.S. are simultaneously biting the bullet and showing signs of guarded optimism for the future. On the one hand, during last year, purchasing costs were high, selling prices were low, quotas ruled, and machine purchases sagged. However, there is continued...

  5. Soil disturbance assessment of a cable logging operation performing five silvicultural prescriptions

    Treesearch

    John Klepac; Steve Reutebuch

    2003-01-01

    Evaluating alternative methods for regenerating second-growth Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) forests in the Pacific Northwest is an area of interest for resource managers. To meet future demands for timber supply as well as provide stands that are visually acceptable by the public and ecologically viable, a thorough understanding of these...

  6. Low temperature in the hemlock woolly adelgid system

    Treesearch

    Scott D. Costa; R. Talbot Trotter; Michael Montgomery; Michael Fortney

    2008-01-01

    Hemlock woolly adelgid (HWA) vary in their susceptibility to temperatures considerably below freezing. Many individuals may die by -20°C (-4°F), but more cold-tolerant individuals will allow populations to persist. Managers wanting to gauge temperature impacts on future adelgid pressure to hemlock forests may benefit from using available daily records...

  7. International Issues: Report of Futuring Group 9

    Treesearch

    1987-01-01

    The wildland fire scenario outside North American is characterized by increasing amount and severity of wildfires worldwide. In Europe, most of the Mediterranean countries suffer devastating forest fires, despite fire management efforts. Examples of the wildland fire theater within the developing countries and the tropical world have been given at this Symposium on...

  8. Forest Insect Pest Management and Forest Management in China: An Overview

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ji, Lanzhu; Wang, Zhen; Wang, Xiaowei; An, Linli

    2011-12-01

    According to the Seventh National Forest Inventory (2004-2008), China's forests cover an area of 195.45 million ha, or 20.36% of the total land area. China has the most rapidly increasing forest resources in the world. However, China is also a country with serious forest pest problems. There are more than 8,000 species of potential forest pests in China, including insects, plant diseases, rodents and lagomorphs, and hazardous plants. Among them, 300 species are considered as economically or ecologically important, and half of these are serious pests, including 86 species of insects. Forest management and utilization have a considerable influence on the stability and sustainability of forest ecosystems. At the national level, forestry policies always play a major role in forest resource management and forest health protection. In this paper, we present a comprehensive overview of both achievements and challenges in forest management and insect pest control in China. First, we summarize the current status of forest resources and their pests in China. Second, we address the theories, policies, practices and major national actions on forestry and forest insect pest management, including the Engineering Pest Management of China, the National Key Forestry Programs, the Classified Forest Management system, and the Collective Forest Tenure Reform. We analyze and discuss three representative plantations— Eucalyptus, poplar and Masson pine plantations—with respect to their insect diversity, pest problems and pest management measures.

  9. Forest insect pest management and forest management in China: an overview.

    PubMed

    Ji, Lanzhu; Wang, Zhen; Wang, Xiaowei; An, Linli

    2011-12-01

    According to the Seventh National Forest Inventory (2004-2008), China's forests cover an area of 195.45 million ha, or 20.36% of the total land area. China has the most rapidly increasing forest resources in the world. However, China is also a country with serious forest pest problems. There are more than 8,000 species of potential forest pests in China, including insects, plant diseases, rodents and lagomorphs, and hazardous plants. Among them, 300 species are considered as economically or ecologically important, and half of these are serious pests, including 86 species of insects. Forest management and utilization have a considerable influence on the stability and sustainability of forest ecosystems. At the national level, forestry policies always play a major role in forest resource management and forest health protection. In this paper, we present a comprehensive overview of both achievements and challenges in forest management and insect pest control in China. First, we summarize the current status of forest resources and their pests in China. Second, we address the theories, policies, practices and major national actions on forestry and forest insect pest management, including the Engineering Pest Management of China, the National Key Forestry Programs, the Classified Forest Management system, and the Collective Forest Tenure Reform. We analyze and discuss three representative plantations-Eucalyptus, poplar and Masson pine plantations-with respect to their insect diversity, pest problems and pest management measures.

  10. Climate Change Impacts on Forest Succession and Future Productivity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mohan, J. E.; Melillo, J. M.; Clark, J. S.; Schlesinger, W. H.

    2012-12-01

    Change in ecosystem carbon (C) dynamics with forest succession is a long-studied topic in ecology, and secondary forests currently comprise a significant proportion of the global land base. Although mature forests are generally more important for conserving species and habitats, early successional trees and stands typically have higher rates of productivity, including net ecosystem productivity (NEP), which represents carbon available for sequestration. Secondary forests undergoing successional development are thus major players in the current global carbon cycle, yet how forests will function in the future under warmer conditions with higher atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations is unknown. Future forest C dynamics will depend, in part, on future species composition. Data from "Forests of the Future" research in a number of global change experiments provide insights into how forests may look in terms of dominant species composition, and thus function, in a future world. Studies at Free-Air Carbon Dioxide (FACE) experiments at Duke Forest and other facilities, plus climate warming experiments such as those at the Harvard Forest, suggest a common underlying principle of vegetation responses to environmental manipulation: Namely, that shade-tolerant woody species associating with arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi show greater growth stimulation than ectomycorrhizal-associating (ECM) trees which are more common in temperate and boreal forests (Fig. 1 of relative growth rates standardized by pre-treatment rates). This may be due in part to the role of AM fungi in obtaining soil phosphorus and inorganic forms of nitrogen for plant associates. In combination, these results suggest a shift in future forest composition towards less-productive tree species that generally acquire atmospheric CO2 at lower annual rates, as well as a competitive advantage extended to woody vines such as poison ivy. Due to higher atmospheric CO2 and warmer temperatures, forests of the future may become less-productive than those of today.

  11. Forest Management as an Element of Environment Development

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jaszczak, Roman; Gołojuch, Piotr; Wajchman-Świtalska, Sandra; Miotke, Mariusz

    2017-12-01

    The implementation of goals of modern forestry requires a simultaneous consideration of sustainable development of forests, protection, needs of the environment development, as well as maintaining a balance between functions of forests. In the current multifunctional forest model, rational forest management assumes all of its tasks as equally important. Moreover, its effects are important factors in the nature and environment protection. The paper presents legal conditions related to the definitions of forest management concepts and sustainable forest management. Authors present a historical outline of human's impact on the forest and its consequences for the environment. The selected aspects of forest management (eg. forest utilization, afforestation, tourism and recreation) and their role in the forest environment have been discussed.

  12. When a tree falls: Controls on wood decay predict standing dead tree fall and new risks in changing forests.

    PubMed

    Oberle, Brad; Ogle, Kiona; Zanne, Amy E; Woodall, Christopher W

    2018-01-01

    When standing dead trees (snags) fall, they have major impacts on forest ecosystems. Snag fall can redistribute wildlife habitat and impact public safety, while governing important carbon (C) cycle consequences of tree mortality because ground contact accelerates C emissions during deadwood decay. Managing the consequences of altered snag dynamics in changing forests requires predicting when snags fall as wood decay erodes mechanical resistance to breaking forces. Previous studies have pointed to common predictors, such as stem size, degree of decay and species identity, but few have assessed the relative strength of underlying mechanisms driving snag fall across biomes. Here, we analyze nearly 100,000 repeated snag observations from boreal to subtropical forests across the eastern United States to show that wood decay controls snag fall in ways that could generate previously unrecognized forest-climate feedback. Warmer locations where wood decays quickly had much faster rates of snag fall. The effect of temperature on snag fall was so strong that in a simple forest C model, anticipated warming by mid-century reduced snag C by 22%. Furthermore, species-level differences in wood decay resistance (durability) accurately predicted the timing of snag fall. Differences in half-life for standing dead trees were similar to expected differences in the service lifetimes of wooden structures built from their timber. Strong effects of temperature and wood durability imply future forests where dying trees fall and decay faster than at present, reducing terrestrial C storage and snag-dependent wildlife habitat. These results can improve the representation of forest C cycling and assist forest managers by helping predict when a dead tree may fall.

  13. When a tree falls: Controls on wood decay predict standing dead tree fall and new risks in changing forests

    PubMed Central

    Ogle, Kiona; Zanne, Amy E.; Woodall, Christopher W.

    2018-01-01

    When standing dead trees (snags) fall, they have major impacts on forest ecosystems. Snag fall can redistribute wildlife habitat and impact public safety, while governing important carbon (C) cycle consequences of tree mortality because ground contact accelerates C emissions during deadwood decay. Managing the consequences of altered snag dynamics in changing forests requires predicting when snags fall as wood decay erodes mechanical resistance to breaking forces. Previous studies have pointed to common predictors, such as stem size, degree of decay and species identity, but few have assessed the relative strength of underlying mechanisms driving snag fall across biomes. Here, we analyze nearly 100,000 repeated snag observations from boreal to subtropical forests across the eastern United States to show that wood decay controls snag fall in ways that could generate previously unrecognized forest-climate feedback. Warmer locations where wood decays quickly had much faster rates of snag fall. The effect of temperature on snag fall was so strong that in a simple forest C model, anticipated warming by mid-century reduced snag C by 22%. Furthermore, species-level differences in wood decay resistance (durability) accurately predicted the timing of snag fall. Differences in half-life for standing dead trees were similar to expected differences in the service lifetimes of wooden structures built from their timber. Strong effects of temperature and wood durability imply future forests where dying trees fall and decay faster than at present, reducing terrestrial C storage and snag-dependent wildlife habitat. These results can improve the representation of forest C cycling and assist forest managers by helping predict when a dead tree may fall. PMID:29742158

  14. Characteristics of the Remote Sensing Data Used in the Proposed Unfccc REDD+ Forest Reference Emission Levels (frels)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Johnson, B. A.; Scheyvens, H.; Samejima, H.; Onoda, M.

    2016-06-01

    Developing countries must submit forest reference emission levels (FRELs) to the UNFCCC to receive incentives for REDD+ activities (e.g. reducing emissions from deforestation/forest degradation, sustainable management of forests, forest carbon stock conservation/enhancement). These FRELs are generated based on historical CO2 emissions in the land use, land use change, and forestry sector, and are derived using remote sensing (RS) data and in-situ forest carbon measurements. Since the quality of the historical emissions estimates is affected by the quality and quantity of the RS data used, in this study we calculated five metrics (i-v below) to assess the quality and quantity of the data that has been used thus far. Countries could focus on improving on one or more of these metrics for the submission of future FRELs. Some of our main findings were: (i) the median percentage of each country mapped was 100%, (ii) the median historical timeframe for which RS data was used was 11.5 years, (iii) the median interval of forest map updates was 4.5 years, (iv) the median spatial resolution of the RS data was 30m, and (v) the median number of REDD+ activities that RS data was used for operational monitoring of was 1 (typically deforestation). Many new sources of RS data have become available in recent years, so complementary or alternative RS data sets for generating future FRELs can potentially be identified based on our findings; e.g. alternative RS data sets could be considered if they have similar or higher quality/quantity than the currently-used data sets.

  15. Ecological carbon sequestration via wood harvest and storage (WHS): Can it be a viable climate and energy strategy?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zeng, N.; Zaitchik, B. F.; King, A. W.; Wullschleger, S. D.

    2016-12-01

    A carbon sequestration strategy is proposed in which forests are sustainably managed to optimal carbon productivity, and a fraction of the wood is selectively harvested and stored to prevent decomposition under anaerobic, dry or cold conditions. Because a large flux of CO2 is constantly assimilated into the world's forests via photosynthesis, cutting off its return pathway to the atmosphere forms an effective carbon sink. The live trees serve as a `carbon scrubber' or `carbon remover' that provides continuous sequestration (negative emissions). The stored wood is a semi-permanent carbon sink, but also serves as a `biomass/bioenergy reserve' that could be utilized in the future.Based on forest coarse wood production rate, land availability, bioconservation and other practical constraints, we estimate a carbon sequestration potential for wood harvest and storage (WHS) 1-3 GtC y-1. The implementation of such a scheme at our estimated lower value of 1 GtC y-1 would imply a doubling of the current world wood harvest rate. This can be achieved by harvesting wood at a modest harvesting intensity of 1.2 tC ha-1 y-1, over a forest area of 8 Mkm2 (800 Mha). To achieve the higher value of 3 GtC y-1, forests need to be managed this way on half of the world's forested land, or on a smaller area but with higher harvest intensity. However, the actual implementation may face challenges that vary regionally. We propose `carbon sequestration and biomass farms' in the tropical deforestation frontiers with mixed land use for carbon, energy, agriculture, as well as conservation. In another example, the forests damaged by insect infestation could be thinned to reduce fire and harvested for carbon sequestration.We estimate a cost of $10-50/tCO2 for harvest and storage around the landing site. The technique is low tech, distributed and reversible. We compare the potential of WHS with a number of other carbon sequestration methods. We will also show its impact on future land carbon sink and climate target using carbon-cliamte model projections.

  16. Conservation Implications of Changes in Endemic Hawaiian Drosophilidae Diversity across Land Use Gradients

    PubMed Central

    Leblanc, Luc; Rubinoff, Daniel; Wright, Mark G.

    2013-01-01

    Endemic Hawaiian Drosophilidae, a radiation of nearly 1000 species including 13 federally listed as endangered, occur mostly in intact native forest, 500–1500 m above sea level. But their persistence in disturbed forest and agricultural areas has not been documented. Thus, control efforts for agricultural pests may impact endemic species if previously undocumented refugia in agricultural areas may play a role in their conservation. To quantify whether invasive plants and agriculture habitats may harbor endemic Drosophilidae, we established standardized trapping arrays, with traps typically designed to control invasive fruit flies (Tephritidae), with 81 sites across native, disturbed and agricultural land use gradients on the islands of Hawai’i and Maui. We collected and identified, to species level, over 22,000 specimens. We found 121 of the possible 292 species expected to occur in the sampled areas, and the majority (91%) of the captured specimens belonged to 24 common species. Species diversity and numbers were greatest in the native forest, but 55% of the species occurred in the invasive strawberry guava belt and plantation forest, adjacent to and almost 500 m from native forest, and 22 species were collected in orchards and nonnative forest as far as 10 km from native habitats. Their persistence outside of native forest suggests that more careful management of disturbed forest and a reassessment of its conservation value are in order. Conservation efforts and assessments of native forest integrity should include the subset of species restricted to intact native forest, since these species are highly localized and particularly sensitive. Additionally, future efforts to control invasive pest fruit flies should consider the nontarget impacts of maintaining traps in and near native forest. This survey project demonstrates the utility of thorough biotic surveys and taxonomic expertise in developing both sensitive species lists and baseline diversity indices for future conservation and monitoring efforts. PMID:23650514

  17. Pervasive growth reduction in Norway spruce forests following wind disturbance.

    PubMed

    Seidl, Rupert; Blennow, Kristina

    2012-01-01

    In recent decades the frequency and severity of natural disturbances by e.g., strong winds and insect outbreaks has increased considerably in many forest ecosystems around the world. Future climate change is expected to further intensify disturbance regimes, which makes addressing disturbances in ecosystem management a top priority. As a prerequisite a broader understanding of disturbance impacts and ecosystem responses is needed. With regard to the effects of strong winds--the most detrimental disturbance agent in Europe--monitoring and management has focused on structural damage, i.e., tree mortality from uprooting and stem breakage. Effects on the functioning of trees surviving the storm (e.g., their productivity and allocation) have been rarely accounted for to date. Here we show that growth reduction was significant and pervasive in a 6.79 million hectare forest landscape in southern Sweden following the storm Gudrun (January 2005). Wind-related growth reduction in Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) forests surviving the storm exceeded 10% in the worst hit regions, and was closely related to maximum gust wind speed (R(2) = 0.849) and structural wind damage (R(2) = 0.782). At the landscape scale, wind-related growth reduction amounted to 3.0 million m(3) in the three years following Gudrun. It thus exceeds secondary damage from bark beetles after Gudrun as well as the long-term average storm damage from uprooting and stem breakage in Sweden. We conclude that the impact of strong winds on forest ecosystems is not limited to the immediately visible area of structural damage, and call for a broader consideration of disturbance effects on ecosystem structure and functioning in the context of forest management and climate change mitigation.

  18. Pervasive Growth Reduction in Norway Spruce Forests following Wind Disturbance

    PubMed Central

    Seidl, Rupert; Blennow, Kristina

    2012-01-01

    Background In recent decades the frequency and severity of natural disturbances by e.g., strong winds and insect outbreaks has increased considerably in many forest ecosystems around the world. Future climate change is expected to further intensify disturbance regimes, which makes addressing disturbances in ecosystem management a top priority. As a prerequisite a broader understanding of disturbance impacts and ecosystem responses is needed. With regard to the effects of strong winds – the most detrimental disturbance agent in Europe – monitoring and management has focused on structural damage, i.e., tree mortality from uprooting and stem breakage. Effects on the functioning of trees surviving the storm (e.g., their productivity and allocation) have been rarely accounted for to date. Methodology/Principal Findings Here we show that growth reduction was significant and pervasive in a 6.79·million hectare forest landscape in southern Sweden following the storm Gudrun (January 2005). Wind-related growth reduction in Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) forests surviving the storm exceeded 10% in the worst hit regions, and was closely related to maximum gust wind speed (R2 = 0.849) and structural wind damage (R2 = 0.782). At the landscape scale, wind-related growth reduction amounted to 3.0 million m3 in the three years following Gudrun. It thus exceeds secondary damage from bark beetles after Gudrun as well as the long-term average storm damage from uprooting and stem breakage in Sweden. Conclusions/Significance We conclude that the impact of strong winds on forest ecosystems is not limited to the immediately visible area of structural damage, and call for a broader consideration of disturbance effects on ecosystem structure and functioning in the context of forest management and climate change mitigation. PMID:22413012

  19. Agricultural intensification escalates future conservation costs.

    PubMed

    Phelps, Jacob; Carrasco, Luis Roman; Webb, Edward L; Koh, Lian Pin; Pascual, Unai

    2013-05-07

    The supposition that agricultural intensification results in land sparing for conservation has become central to policy formulations across the tropics. However, underlying assumptions remain uncertain and have been little explored in the context of conservation incentive schemes such as policies for Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation, conservation, sustainable management, and enhancement of carbon stocks (REDD+). Incipient REDD+ forest carbon policies in a number of countries propose agricultural intensification measures to replace extensive "slash-and-burn" farming systems. These may result in conservation in some contexts, but will also increase future agricultural land rents as productivity increases, creating new incentives for agricultural expansion and deforestation. While robust governance can help to ensure land sparing, we propose that conservation incentives will also have to increase over time, tracking future agricultural land rents, which might lead to runaway conservation costs. We present a conceptual framework that depicts these relationships, supported by an illustrative model of the intensification of key crops in the Democratic Republic of Congo, a leading REDD+ country. A von Thünen land rent model is combined with geographic information systems mapping to demonstrate how agricultural intensification could influence future conservation costs. Once postintensification agricultural land rents are considered, the cost of reducing forest sector emissions could significantly exceed current and projected carbon credit prices. Our analysis highlights the importance of considering escalating conservation costs from agricultural intensification when designing conservation initiatives.

  20. Agricultural intensification escalates future conservation costs

    PubMed Central

    Phelps, Jacob; Carrasco, Luis Roman; Webb, Edward L.; Koh, Lian Pin; Pascual, Unai

    2013-01-01

    The supposition that agricultural intensification results in land sparing for conservation has become central to policy formulations across the tropics. However, underlying assumptions remain uncertain and have been little explored in the context of conservation incentive schemes such as policies for Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation, conservation, sustainable management, and enhancement of carbon stocks (REDD+). Incipient REDD+ forest carbon policies in a number of countries propose agricultural intensification measures to replace extensive “slash-and-burn” farming systems. These may result in conservation in some contexts, but will also increase future agricultural land rents as productivity increases, creating new incentives for agricultural expansion and deforestation. While robust governance can help to ensure land sparing, we propose that conservation incentives will also have to increase over time, tracking future agricultural land rents, which might lead to runaway conservation costs. We present a conceptual framework that depicts these relationships, supported by an illustrative model of the intensification of key crops in the Democratic Republic of Congo, a leading REDD+ country. A von Thünen land rent model is combined with geographic information systems mapping to demonstrate how agricultural intensification could influence future conservation costs. Once postintensification agricultural land rents are considered, the cost of reducing forest sector emissions could significantly exceed current and projected carbon credit prices. Our analysis highlights the importance of considering escalating conservation costs from agricultural intensification when designing conservation initiatives. PMID:23589860

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