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Sample records for future gcm scenarios

  1. Impact of horizontal resolution on scenarios of future European temperature and precipitation as derived from RCM and GCM simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kjellström, Erik; Nikulin, Grigory

    2014-05-01

    In this study we investigate possible changes in temperature and precipitation on a regional scale over Europe from 1961 to 2100. We use data from three ensembles of climate simulations, one global and two regional ones, over the Europe-CORDEX domain. The global ensemble includes five coupled atmosphere ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) from the CMIP5 project with horizontal resolution varying from about 1º to 3º, namely CNRM-CM5, HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5A-MR, EC-EARTH and MPI-ESM-LR. In the regional ensembles all 5 AOGCMs are downscaled at the Rossby Centre (SMHI) by a regional climate model - RCA4 at 0.44º (c. 50 km) and at 0.11º (c. 12.5 km) resolution under the forcing scenarios RCP 8.5. The experimental setup allows us to investigate the benefit of the higher horizontal resolution, in RCA4 by comparing the results in the two RCA4 ensembles to the coarser driving AOGCM data. The significance of the results is investigated by comparing to i) the model simulated natural variability, and, ii) the biases in the control period. Results dealing with changes in the seasonal cycle of temperature and precipitation and their relation to changes in the large-scale atmospheric circulation are presented. We also address higher-order variability by showing results for changes in temperature extremes and for changes in intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation.

  2. Development of useful climate scenarios at regional scales using GCM outputs

    SciTech Connect

    Werner, P.C.

    1997-12-31

    If climate changes are expected, their regional impacts are of special interest. Up to now (and in the near future) global climate models have been unable to deliver applicable results to describe the climate situation within a selected region (IPCC, 1995). That is why the description of the climate development in such an area must be realised by another possibility of creating meteorological data. Of importance besides is that the consistency in space and time and also between all meteorological parameters is not infracted. The used method proceeds on the assumption that the large scale changes of several meteorological parameters for a defined region calculated by a GCM can be regarded as correct as regards their tendencies. Based on such an assumption, long-term observed time series are prepared by statistical methods in such a way that they reflect the GCM-calculated changes by a scenario. The advantage of this method lies in the reduction of the defects of the GCM to a minimum. Simultaneously the consistency between the meteorological parameters can be ensured. A disadvantage is the missing physical connection between the GCM results and the given scenario. This method was applied successfully to develop several climate scenarios for a limited area (state Brandenburg) in Germany.

  3. GLOBAL ALTERNATIVE FUTURE SCENARIOS

    EPA Science Inventory

    One way to examine possible future outcomes for environmental protection is through the development and analysis of alternative future scenarios. This type of assessment postulates two or more different paths that social and environmental development might take, using correspond...

  4. How to Factor GCM Uncertainty in Assessing Changes to Reservoir Storage Capacity for Future (Warmer) Climates?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Woldemeskel, F. M.; Sharma, A.; Sivakumar, B.; Mehrotra, R.

    2013-12-01

    Whether or not the existing storage capacity of reservoirs is sufficient to meet future water demands is a question of great interest to water managers and policy makers. Among other factors, uncertainties in GCM projections make accurate estimation of future water availability and reservoir storage requirements extremely complicated. Projections of variables using GCMs (e.g. temperature, precipitation) are highly uncertain due to inaccuracies in the climate model structure, greenhouse gas emission scenarios, and initial conditions (or ensemble runs) used. The present study proposes a new method to quantify the uncertainties (or standard errors) of GCM projections and their influence on the estimation of reservoir storage. The GCM standard errors are estimated through the following four steps: (i) interpolating multiple GCM outputs to a common spatial grid; (ii) converting the interpolated GCM outputs to percentiles; (iii) estimating standard error for model, scenario, initial condition and total uncertainty for each percentile; and (iv) transforming standard error estimates to time series. By assuming an additive error model and conditioning on these standard errors, thousands of rainfall and temperature realizations are obtained for a selected GCM and scenario. The temperature realizations are used to estimate evaporation realizations, which are then used as input (together with rainfall) to rainfall-runoff model for estimating streamflow. Finally, the streamflow realizations are used to quantify reservoir storage requirements with its associated uncertainties using reservoir behavior analysis. The proposed method is tested for the case of the Warragamba dam reservoir system that supplies more than 80% of water to Sydney, Australia. The results suggest that uncertainties in reservoir storage capacity will be significantly large for the future period than that for the historical period. Comparison of the effects of rainfall and evaporation uncertainty suggests

  5. Futures Scenario in Science Learning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lloyd, David; Vanderhout, Annastasia; Lloyd, Lisa; Atkins, David

    2010-01-01

    In this article we describe our experiences in developing futures scenarios in two science contexts, space science and atmospheric science/climate change. Futures scenario writing can develop scientific literacy by connecting science learning to students' lifeworlds--past, present and future. They also provide a synthesising mechanism for…

  6. Future Scenarios and Environmental Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kopnina, Helen

    2014-01-01

    This article explores a number of questions about visions of the future and their implications for environmental education (EE). If the future were known, what kind of actions would be needed to maintain the positive aspects and reverse the negative ones? How could these actions be translated into the aims of EE? Three future scenarios are…

  7. Reduction of future monsoon precipitation over China: comparison between a high resolution RCM simulation and the driving GCM

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gao, X.; Shi, Y.; Song, R.; Giorgi, F.; Wang, Y.; Zhang, D.

    2008-08-01

    Multi-decadal high resolution climate change simulations over East Asia are performed using the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) Regional Climate Model, RegCM3, nested within the NASA/NCAR global model FvGCM. Two sets of simulations are conducted at 20-km grid spacing for present day and future climate (IPCC A2 scenario). The mean precipitation change during the monsoon season (May to September) over China is analyzed and intercompared between the RegCM and FvGCM. Simulation of the present day precipitation by the RegCM shows a better performance than that of the driving FvGCM in terms of both spatial pattern and amount. The main improvement of the RegCM is the removal of an artificial precipitation center over the eastern edge of the Tibetan Plateau simulated by the FvGCM. The FvGCM simulates a predominant increase of precipitation over the region, whereas the RegCM shows extended areas of decrease. The causes of these differences are investigated and explained in terms of the different topographical forcing on circulation and moisture flux in the two models. We also find that the RegCM-simulated changes are in better agreement with observed precipitation trends over East Asia. It is suggested that high resolution models are needed to better investigate future climate projections over China and East Asia.

  8. A comparison of delta change and downscaled GCM scenarios for three mountainous basins in the United States

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hay, L.E.; Wilby, R.L.; Leavesley, G.H.

    2000-01-01

    Simulated daily precipitation, temperature, and runoff time series were compared in three mountainous basins in the United States: (1) the Animas River basin in Colorado, (2) the East Fork of the Carson River basin in Nevada and California, and (3) the Cle Elum River basin in Washington State. Two methods of climate scenario generation were compared: delta change and statistical downscaling. The delta change method uses differences between simulated current and future climate conditions from the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research (HadCM2) General Circulation Model (GCM) added to observed time series of climate variables. A statistical downscaling (SDS) model was developed for each basin using station data and output from the National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis regridded to the scale of HadCM2. The SDS model was then used to simulate local climate variables using HadCM2 output for current and future conditions. Surface climate variables from each scenario were used in a precipitation-runoff model. Results from this study show that, in the basins tested, a precipitation-runoff model can simulate realistic runoff series for current conditions using statistically downscaled NCEP output. But, use of downscaled HadCM2 output for current or future climate assessments are questionable because the GCM does not produce accurate estimates of the surface variables needed for runoff in these regions. Given the uncertainties in the GCMs ability to simulate current conditions based on either the delta change or downscaling approaches, future climate assessments based on either of these approaches must be treated with caution.

  9. Polar predictability: exploring the influence of GCM and regional model uncertainty on future ice sheet climates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reusch, D. B.

    2015-12-01

    Evaluating uncertainty in GCMs and regional-scale forecast models is an essential step in the development of climate change predictions. Polar-region skill is particularly important due to the potential for changes affecting both local (ice sheet) and global (sea level) environments through more frequent/intense surface melting and changes in precipitation type/amount. High-resolution, regional-scale models also use GCMs as a source of boundary/initial conditions in future scenarios, thus inheriting a measure of GCM-derived externally-driven uncertainty. We examine inter- and intramodel uncertainty through statistics from decadal climatologies and analyses of variability based on self-organizing maps (SOMs), a nonlinear data analysis tool. We evaluate a 19-member CMIP5 subset and the 30-member CESM1.0-CAM5-BGC Large Ensemble (CESMLE) during polar melt seasons (boreal/austral summer) for recent (1981-2000) and future (2081-2100, RCP 8.5) decades. Regional-model uncertainty is examined with a subset of these GCMs driving Polar WRF simulations. Decadal climatologies relative to a reference (recent: the ERA-Interim reanalysis; future: a skillful modern GCM) identify model uncertainty in bulk, e.g., BNU-ESM is too warm, CMCC-CM too cold. While quite useful for model screening, diagnostic benefit is often indirect. SOMs extend our diagnostics by providing a concise, objective summary of model variability as a set of generalized patterns. Joint analysis of reference and test models summarizes the variability of multiple realizations of climate (all the models), benchmarks each model versus the reference (frequency analysis helps identify the patterns behind GCM bias), and places each GCM in a common context. Joint SOM analysis of CESMLE members shows how initial conditions contribute to differences in modeled climates, providing useful information about internal variability, such as contributions from each member to overall uncertainty using pattern frequencies. In the

  10. Biogeophysical consequences of a tropical deforestation scenario: A GCM simulation study

    SciTech Connect

    Sud, Y.C.; Lau, W.K.M.; Walker, G.K.

    1996-12-01

    Two 3-year (1979-1982) integrations were carried out with a version of the GLA GCM that contains the Simple Biosphere Model (SiB) for simulating land-atmosphere interactions. The control case used the usual SiB vegetation cover (comprising 12 vegetation types), while its twin, the deforestation case, imposed a scenario in which all tropical rainforests were entirely replaced by grassland. Except for this difference, all other initial and prescribed boundary conditions were kept identical in both integrations. An intercomparison of the integrations shows that tropical: deforestation decreases evapotranspiration and increases land surface outgoing longwave radiation and sensible heat flux, thereby warming and drying the planetary boundary layer. This happens despite the reduced absorption of solar radiation due to higher surface albedo of the deforested land. Produces significant and robust local as well as global climate changes. The local effect includes significant changes (mostly reductions) in precipitation and diabatic heating, while the large-scale effect is to weaken the Hadley circulation but invigorate the southern Ferrel cell, drawing larger air mass from the indirect polar cells. Decreases the surface stress (drag force) owing to reduced surface roughness of deforested land, which in turn intensifies winds in the planetary boundary layer, thereby affecting the dynamic structure of moisture convergence. The simulated surface winds are about 70% stronger and are accompanied by significant changes in the power spectrum of the annual cycle of surface and PBL winds and precipitation. Our results broadly confirm several findings of recent tropical deforestation simulation experiments. In addition, some global-scale climatic influences of deforestation not identified in earlier studies are delineated. 57 refs., 10 figs., 3 tabs.

  11. River flood risk in Jakarta under scenarios of future change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Budiyono, Y.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.; Tollenaar, D.; Ward, P.

    2015-07-01

    Given the increasing impacts of flooding in Jakarta, methods for assessing current and future flood risk are required. In this paper, we use the Damagescanner-Jakarta risk model to project changes in future river flood risk under scenarios of climate change, land subsidence, and land use change. We estimate current flood risk at USD 143 million p.a. Combining all future scenarios, we simulate a median increase in risk of +263 % by 2030. The single driver with the largest contribution to that increase is land subsidence (+173 %). We simulated the impacts of climate change by combining two scenario of sea level rise with simulations of changes in 1 day extreme precipitation totals from 5 Global Climate Models (GCMs) forced by 4 Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The results are highly uncertain; the median change in risk due to climate change alone by 2030 is a decrease by -4 %, but we simulate an increase in risk under 21 of the 40 GCM-RCP-sea level rise combinations. Hence, we developed probabilistic risk scenarios to account for this uncertainty. Finally, we discuss the relevance of the results for flood risk management in Jakarta.

  12. FUTURE SCENARIOS OF CHANGE IN WILDLIFE HABITAT

    EPA Science Inventory

    Studies in Pennsylvania, Iowa, California, and Oregon show varying losses of terrestrial wildlife habitat in scenarios based on different assumptions about future human land use patterns. Retrospective estimates of losses of habitat since Euro-American settlement in several stud...

  13. Nuclear Futures Analysis and Scenario Building

    SciTech Connect

    Arthur, E.D.; Beller, D.; Canavan, G.H.; Krakowski, R.A.; Peterson, P.; Wagner, R.L.

    1999-07-09

    This LDRD project created and used advanced analysis capabilities to postulate scenarios and identify issues, externalities, and technologies associated with future ''things nuclear''. ''Things nuclear'' include areas pertaining to nuclear weapons, nuclear materials, and nuclear energy, examined in the context of future domestic and international environments. Analysis tools development included adaptation and expansion of energy, environmental, and economics (E3) models to incorporate a robust description of the nuclear fuel cycle (both current and future technology pathways), creation of a beginning proliferation risk model (coupled to the (E3) model), and extension of traditional first strike stability models to conditions expected to exist in the future (smaller force sizes, multipolar engagement environments, inclusion of actual and latent nuclear weapons (capability)). Accomplishments include scenario development for regional and global nuclear energy, the creation of a beginning nuclear architecture designed to improve the proliferation resistance and environmental performance of the nuclear fuel cycle, and numerous results for future nuclear weapons scenarios.

  14. Future Scenarios for Mobile Science Learning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Burden, Kevin; Kearney, Matthew

    2016-01-01

    This paper adopts scenario planning as a methodological approach and tool to help science educators reconceptualise their use of mobile technologies across various different futures. These "futures" are set out neither as predictions nor prognoses but rather as stimuli to encourage greater discussion and reflection around the use of…

  15. River flood risk in Jakarta under scenarios of future change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Budiyono, Yus; Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.; Tollenaar, Daniel; Ward, Philip J.

    2016-03-01

    Given the increasing impacts of flooding in Jakarta, methods for assessing current and future flood risk are required. In this paper, we use the Damagescanner-Jakarta risk model to project changes in future river flood risk under scenarios of climate change, land subsidence, and land use change. Damagescanner-Jakarta is a simple flood risk model that estimates flood risk in terms of annual expected damage, based on input maps of flood hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. We estimate baseline flood risk at USD 186 million p.a. Combining all future scenarios, we simulate a median increase in risk of +180 % by 2030. The single driver with the largest contribution to that increase is land subsidence (+126 %). We simulated the impacts of climate change by combining two scenarios of sea level rise with simulations of changes in 1-day extreme precipitation totals from five global climate models (GCMs) forced by the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The results are highly uncertain; the median change in risk due to climate change alone by 2030 is a decrease by -46 %, but we simulate an increase in risk under 12 of the 40 GCM-RCP-sea level rise combinations. Hence, we developed probabilistic risk scenarios to account for this uncertainty. If land use change by 2030 takes places according to the official Jakarta Spatial Plan 2030, risk could be reduced by 12 %. However, if land use change in the future continues at the same rate as the last 30 years, large increases in flood risk will take place. Finally, we discuss the relevance of the results for flood risk management in Jakarta.

  16. Selecting reasonable future land use scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Allred, W.E.; Smith, R.W.

    1995-12-31

    This paper examines a process to help select the most reasonable future land use scenario for hazardous waste and/or low-level radioactive waste disposal sites. The process involves evaluating future land use scenarios ab applying selected criteria currently used by commercial mortgage companies to determine the feasibility of obtaining a loan for purchasing such land. The basis for the process is that only land use activities for which a loan can be obtained well be considered. To examine the process, a low-level radioactive waste site, the Radioactive Waste Management Complex at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, is used as an example. The authors suggest that the process is a very precise, comprehensive, and systematic approach for determining reasonable future use of land. Implementing such a process will help enhance the planning, decisionmaking, safe management, and cleanup of present and future disposal facilities.

  17. Selecting reasonable future land use scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Allred, W.E.; Smith, R.W.

    1995-12-31

    This paper examines a process to help select the most reasonable future land use scenarios for hazardous waste and/or low-level radioactive waste disposal sites. The process involves evaluating future land use scenarios by applying selected criteria currently used by commercial mortgage companies to determine the feasibility of obtaining a loan for purchasing such land. The basis for the process is that only land use activities for which a loan can be obtained will be considered. To examine the process, a low-level radioactive waste site, the Radioactive Waste Management Complex at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, is used as an example. The authors suggest that the process is a very precise, comprehensive, and systematic (common sense) approach for determining reasonable future use of land. Implementing such a process will help enhance the planning, decisionmaking, safe management, and cleanup of present and future disposal facilities.

  18. Future Scenarios for Mobile Science Learning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Burden, Kevin; Kearney, Matthew

    2016-04-01

    This paper adopts scenario planning as a methodological approach and tool to help science educators reconceptualise their use of mobile technologies across various different futures. These `futures' are set out neither as predictions nor prognoses but rather as stimuli to encourage greater discussion and reflection around the use of mobile technologies in science education. Informed by the literature and our empirical data, we consider four alternative futures for science education in a mobile world, with a particular focus on networked collaboration and student agency. We conclude that `seamless learning', whereby students are empowered to use their mobile technologies to negotiate across physical and virtual boundaries (e.g. between school and out-of-school activities), may be the most significant factor in encouraging educators to rethink their existing pedagogical patterns, thereby realizing some of the promises of contextualised participatory science learning.

  19. Model and Scenario Variations in Predicted Number of Generations of Spodoptera litura Fab. on Peanut during Future Climate Change Scenario

    PubMed Central

    Srinivasa Rao, Mathukumalli; Swathi, Pettem; Rama Rao, Chitiprolu Anantha; Rao, K. V.; Raju, B. M. K.; Srinivas, Karlapudi; Manimanjari, Dammu; Maheswari, Mandapaka

    2015-01-01

    The present study features the estimation of number of generations of tobacco caterpillar, Spodoptera litura. Fab. on peanut crop at six locations in India using MarkSim, which provides General Circulation Model (GCM) of future data on daily maximum (T.max), minimum (T.min) air temperatures from six models viz., BCCR-BCM2.0, CNRM-CM3, CSIRO-Mk3.5, ECHams5, INCM-CM3.0 and MIROC3.2 along with an ensemble of the six from three emission scenarios (A2, A1B and B1). This data was used to predict the future pest scenarios following the growing degree days approach in four different climate periods viz., Baseline-1975, Near future (NF) -2020, Distant future (DF)-2050 and Very Distant future (VDF)—2080. It is predicted that more generations would occur during the three future climate periods with significant variation among scenarios and models. Among the seven models, 1–2 additional generations were predicted during DF and VDF due to higher future temperatures in CNRM-CM3, ECHams5 & CSIRO-Mk3.5 models. The temperature projections of these models indicated that the generation time would decrease by 18–22% over baseline. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) was used to partition the variation in the predicted number of generations and generation time of S. litura on peanut during crop season. Geographical location explained 34% of the total variation in number of generations, followed by time period (26%), model (1.74%) and scenario (0.74%). The remaining 14% of the variation was explained by interactions. Increased number of generations and reduction of generation time across the six peanut growing locations of India suggest that the incidence of S. litura may increase due to projected increase in temperatures in future climate change periods. PMID:25671564

  20. Model and scenario variations in predicted number of generations of Spodoptera litura Fab. on peanut during future climate change scenario.

    PubMed

    Rao, Mathukumalli Srinivasa; Swathi, Pettem; Rao, Chitiprolu Anantha Rama; Rao, K V; Raju, B M K; Srinivas, Karlapudi; Manimanjari, Dammu; Maheswari, Mandapaka

    2015-01-01

    The present study features the estimation of number of generations of tobacco caterpillar, Spodoptera litura. Fab. on peanut crop at six locations in India using MarkSim, which provides General Circulation Model (GCM) of future data on daily maximum (T.max), minimum (T.min) air temperatures from six models viz., BCCR-BCM2.0, CNRM-CM3, CSIRO-Mk3.5, ECHams5, INCM-CM3.0 and MIROC3.2 along with an ensemble of the six from three emission scenarios (A2, A1B and B1). This data was used to predict the future pest scenarios following the growing degree days approach in four different climate periods viz., Baseline-1975, Near future (NF) -2020, Distant future (DF)-2050 and Very Distant future (VDF)-2080. It is predicted that more generations would occur during the three future climate periods with significant variation among scenarios and models. Among the seven models, 1-2 additional generations were predicted during DF and VDF due to higher future temperatures in CNRM-CM3, ECHams5 & CSIRO-Mk3.5 models. The temperature projections of these models indicated that the generation time would decrease by 18-22% over baseline. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) was used to partition the variation in the predicted number of generations and generation time of S. litura on peanut during crop season. Geographical location explained 34% of the total variation in number of generations, followed by time period (26%), model (1.74%) and scenario (0.74%). The remaining 14% of the variation was explained by interactions. Increased number of generations and reduction of generation time across the six peanut growing locations of India suggest that the incidence of S. litura may increase due to projected increase in temperatures in future climate change periods.

  1. Methodologies for Estimating Future Climate Change Scenarios of Surface Solar Radiation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Swamy, A.

    2013-12-01

    A variety of methods are available to estimate future solar radiation (SR) scenarios at spatial scales that are appropriate for local climate change impact assessment, but no clear guidelines are available in the literature to decide which methodologies are most suitable for different applications. Three methodologies to guide the estimation of SR are discussed in this study. In Case 1, SR is measured; in Case 2, SR is measured but sparse; and in Case 3, SR is not measured. In Case 1, future SR scenarios are derived using several downscaling methodologies that transfer the large-scale information simulated by global climate models (GCM) to a local scale (measurements). In Case 2, SR is first estimated at the local scale for a longer time period using sparse measured records, then future scenarios are derived using several downscaling methodologies. In Case 3, SR is first estimated at a regional scale for a longer time-period using complete or sparse measured records of SR, from which SR at local scale is estimated. Finally, in Case 3 methodology, the future scenarios are derived using several downscaling methodologies. A lack of observed SR data, has hindered various climate change impact studies. So Case 3 methodology is elaborated using Support vector machine based downscaling. Future scenarios of SR were estimated monthly from simulations of the third-generation Canadian General Circulation Model (CGCM3) for various SRES emission scenarios (A1B, A2, B1, and COMMIT).

  2. Addressing an Uncertain Future Using Scenario Analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Siddiqui, Afzal S.; Marnay, Chris

    2006-12-15

    The Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) has had a longstanding goal of introducing uncertainty into the analysis it routinely conducts in compliance with the Government Performance and Results Act (GPRA) and for strategic management purposes. The need to introduce some treatment of uncertainty arises both because it would be good general management practice, and because intuitively many of the technologies under development by EERE have a considerable advantage in an uncertain world. For example, an expected kWh output from a wind generator in a future year, which is not exposed to volatile and unpredictable fuel prices, should be truly worth more than an equivalent kWh from an alternative fossil fuel fired technology. Indeed, analysts have attempted to measure this value by comparing the prices observed in fixed-price natural gas contracts compared to ones in which buyers are exposed to market prices (see Bolinger, Wiser, and Golove and (2004)). In addition to the routine reasons for exploring uncertainty given above, the history of energy markets appears to have exhibited infrequent, but troubling, regime shifts, i.e., historic turning points at which the center of gravity or fundamental nature of the system appears to have abruptly shifted. Figure 1 below shows an estimate of how the history of natural gas fired generating costs has evolved over the last three decades. The costs shown incorporate both the well-head gas price and an estimate of how improving generation technology has gradually tended to lower costs. The purpose of this paper is to explore scenario analysis as a method for introducing uncertainty into EERE's forecasting in a manner consistent with the preceding observation. The two questions are how could it be done, and what is its academic basis, if any. Despite the interest in uncertainty methods, applying them poses some major hurdles because of the heavy reliance of EERE on forecasting tools that are deterministic in

  3. Future Scenarios for Fission Based Reactors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    David, S.

    2005-04-01

    The coming century will see the exhaustion of standard fossil fuels, coal, gas and oil, which today represent 75% of the world energy production. Moreover, their use will have caused large-scale emission of greenhouse gases (GEG), and induced global climate change. This problem is exacerbated by a growing world energy demand. In this context, nuclear power is the only GEG-free energy source available today capable of responding significantly to this demand. Some scenarios consider a nuclear energy production of around 5 Gtoe in 2050, wich would represent a 20% share of the world energy supply. Present reactors generate energy from the fission of U-235 and require around 200 tons of natural Uranium to produce 1GWe.y of energy, equivalent to the fission of one ton of fissile material. In a scenario of a significant increase in nuclear energy generation, these standard reactors will consume the whole of the world's estimated Uranium reserves in a few decades. However, natural Uranium or Thorium ore, wich are not themselves fissile, can produce a fissile material after a neutron capture ( 239Pu and 233U respectively). In a breeder reactor, the mass of fissile material remains constant, and the fertile ore is the only material to be consumed. In this case, only 1 ton of natural ore is needed to produce 1GWe.y. Thus, the breeding concept allows optimal use of fertile ore and development of sustainable nuclear energy production for several thousand years into the future. Different sustainable nuclear reactor concepts are studied in the international forum "generation IV". Different types of coolant (Na, Pb and He) are studied for fast breeder reactors based on the Uranium cycle. The thermal Thorium cycle requires the use of a liquid fuel, which can be reprocessed online in order to extract the neutron poisons. This paper presents these different sustainable reactors, based on the Uranium or Thorium fuel cycles and will compare the different options in term of fissile

  4. Scenarios for the Future of Teacher Education in Europe.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Snoek, Marco; Baldwin, Gavin; Cautreels, Paul; Enemaerke, Torsten; Halstead, Valerie; Hilton, Gillian; Klemp, Torunn; Leriche, Leo; Linde, Goran; Nilsen, Elisabeth; Rehn, Joran; Smet, Ronny; Smith, Kari; Sousa, Jesus Maria; Stomp, Lex; Svensson, Hans; and Svensson, Leif

    2003-01-01

    Presents four scenarios that illustrate possible futures of teacher education in Europe. The scenarios differ in their emphasis on four driving forces: pragmatism, idealism, individualism, and social coherence. Each scenario is described in terms of characteristics of society, education/teacher education, and teacher/teacher educator roles and is…

  5. Projecting yield changes of spring wheat under future climate scenarios on the Canadian Prairies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Qian, Budong; De Jong, Reinder; Huffman, Ted; Wang, Hong; Yang, Jingyi

    2016-02-01

    The potential impact of the rise in atmospheric CO2 concentration and associated climatic change on agricultural productivity needs assessment. Projecting crop yield changes under climate change requires future climate scenarios as input to crop yield models. It is widely accepted that downscaling of climate data is required to bridge the gap between large-scale global climate models (GCMs) and climate change impact models, such as crop growth models. Regional climate models (RCMs) are often used to dynamically downscale GCM simulations to smaller regional scales, while statistical methods, such as regression-based transfer functions and stochastic weather generators, are also widely employed to develop future climate scenarios for this purpose. The methods used in developing future climate scenarios often contribute to uncertainties in the projected impacts of climate change, in addition to those associated with GCMs and forcing scenarios. We employed climate scenarios from the state-of-the-art RCMs in the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP), along with climate scenarios generated by a stochastic weather generator based on climate change simulations performed by their driving GCMs, to drive the CERES-Wheat model in DSSAT to project changes in spring wheat yield on the Canadian Prairies. The future time horizon of 2041-2070 and the baseline period of 1971-2000 were considered. The projected changes showed an average increase ranging from 26 to 37 % of the baseline yield when the effects of the elevated CO2 concentration were simulated, but only up to 15 % if the elevated CO2 effect was excluded. In addition to their potential use in climate change impact assessment, the results also demonstrated that the simulated crop yield changes were fairly consistent whether future climate scenarios were derived from RCMs or they were generated by a stochastic weather generator based on the simulated climate change from the GCMs that were used

  6. A Scenario for the Future of Museums

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cunningham, Mary Kay

    2009-01-01

    More than any other staff member, museum educators' knowledge and experience working with visitors make them uniquely qualified to take on leadership roles as museums transform themselves into lifelong learning organizations. The article encourages museum educators to initiate discussions about change by offering a fictional scenario of future…

  7. The Future of Florida: Four Scenarios for the Sunshine State.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bezold, Clement and Olson, Robert

    1983-01-01

    Looking at four different scenarios for Florida's future--continued growth, new federalism, depression/hurricane, and third wave--can help clarify goals for the future. Each scenario's effect on such key areas as energy use, transportation, water, and education is considered. (IS)

  8. A future without health? Health dimension in global scenario studies.

    PubMed Central

    Martens, Pim; Huynen, Maud

    2003-01-01

    This paper reviews the health dimension and sociocultural, economic, and ecological determinants of health in existing global scenario studies. Not even half of the 31 scenarios reviewed gave a good description of future health developments and the different scenario studies did not handle health in a consistent way. Most of the global driving forces of health are addressed adequately in the selected scenarios, however, and it therefore would have been possible to describe the future developments in health as an outcome of these multiple driving forces. To provide examples on how future health can be incorporated in existing scenarios, we linked the sociocultural, economic, and environmental developments described in three sets of scenarios (special report on emission scenarios (SRES), global environmental outlook-3 (GEO3), and world water scenarios (WWS)) to three potential, but imaginary, health futures ("age of emerging infectious diseases", "age of medical technology", and "age of sustained health"). This paper provides useful insights into how to deal with future health in scenarios and shows that a comprehensive picture of future health evolves when all important driving forces and pressures are taken into account. PMID:14997242

  9. Proposal of global flood vulnerability scenarios for evaluating future potential flood losses

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kinoshita, Y.; Tanoue, M.; Watanabe, S.; Hirabayashi, Y.

    2015-12-01

    Flooding is one of the most hazardous and damaging natural disasters causing serious economic loss and casualties across the world (Jongman et al., 2015). Previous studies showed that the global temperature increase affects regional weather pattern, and several general circulation model (GCM) simulations suggest the increase of flood events in both frequency and magnitude in many parts of the world (Hirabayashi et al., 2013). Effective adaptation to potential flood risks under the warming climate requires an in-depth understanding of both the physical and socioeconomic contributors of the flood risk. To assess the realistic future potential flood risk, future sophisticated vulnerability scenarios associated with the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) are necessary. In this study we propose a new future vulnerability scenarios in mortality. Our vulnerability scenarios are constructed based on the modeled flood exposure (population potentially suffered by flooding) and a past from 1980 to 2005. All the flood fatality data were classified according to four income levels (high, mid-high, mid-low and low). Our proposed scenarios have three pathways regarding to SSPs; High efficiency (HE) scenario (SSP1, SSP4 (rich country) and SSP5), Medium efficiency (ME) scenario (SSP2), and Low efficiency (LE) scenario (SSP3 and SSP4 (poor country)). The maximum mortality protection level on each category was detected by applying exponential curve fitting with offset term. Slopes in the HE scenario are assumed to be equal to slopes estimated by regression analysis in each category. The slope in the HE scenario is defined by the mean value of all countries' slope value that is approximately -0.33 mortality decreases per year. The EM-DAT mortality data shows a decreasing trend in time in almost all of the countries. Although mortalities in some countries show an increasing trend, this is because these countries were affected by once-in-hundred-years floods after 1990's. The slope in

  10. Present and Future Energy Scenario in India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kumar, S.; Bhattacharyya, B.; Gupta, V. K.

    2014-09-01

    India's energy sector is one of the most critical components of an infrastructure that affects India's economic growth and therefore is also one of the largest industries in India. India has the 5th largest electricity generating capacity and is the 6th largest energy consumer amounting for around 3.4 % of global energy consumption. India's energy demand has grown at 3.6 % pa over the past 30 years. The consumption of the energy is directly proportional to the progress of manpower with ever growing population, improvement in the living standard of the humanity and industrialization of the developing countries. Very recently smart grid technology can attribute important role in energy scenario. Smart grid refers to electric power system that enhances grid reliability and efficiency by automatically responding to system disturbances. This paper discusses the new communication infrastructure and scheme designed to integrate data.

  11. Future space development scenarios: Environmental considerations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tangum, Richard

    1992-01-01

    The formation of positive attitudes and values concerning the environment of space, as the basis for assuming a wise stewardship role, is becoming increasingly important as many nations begin their journeys into space. A strong emphasis should be placed on fostering an international space environmental ethics. The object of environmental assessment and management in space should be to define what interplanetary regulatory procedures are needed to avoid unnecessary environmental damage and to monitor the effectiveness of such avoidance. The first requirement for research is to narrow the field of concern to areas where there could be an increased scale of development in space in the immediate future. Research needs to be focused on methodologies for defining the environmental systems involved (e.g., the lunar surface) and then recognizing key variables in the system that are fragile and need to be respected. Criteria for environmental quality should emerge which identify, in the case of lunar surface, how much mining activity can be safely undertaken and what quantity of exhaust gases can be released over a given period of time. Only then will humans be most able to evaluate the likely consequences of ventures into space.

  12. Flying into the future: aviation emissions scenarios to 2050.

    PubMed

    Owen, Bethan; Lee, David S; Lim, Ling

    2010-04-01

    This study describes the methodology and results for calculating future global aviation emissions of carbon dioxide and oxides of nitrogen from air traffic under four of the IPCC/SRES (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change/Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) marker scenarios: A1B, A2, B1, and B2. In addition, a mitigation scenario has been calculated for the B1 scenario, requiring rapid and significant technology development and transition. A global model of aircraft movements and emissions (FAST) was used to calculate fuel use and emissions to 2050 with a further outlook to 2100. The aviation emission scenarios presented are designed to interpret the SRES and have been developed to aid in the quantification of the climate change impacts of aviation. Demand projections are made for each scenario, determined by SRES economic growth factors and the SRES storylines. Technology trends are examined in detail and developed for each scenario providing plausible projections for fuel efficiency and emissions control technology appropriate to the individual SRES storylines. The technology trends that are applied are calculated from bottom-up inventory calculations and industry technology trends and targets. Future emissions of carbon dioxide are projected to grow between 2000 and 2050 by a factor in the range of 2.0 and 3.6 depending on the scenario. Emissions of oxides of nitrogen associated with aviation over the same period are projected to grow by between a factor of 1.2 and 2.7. PMID:20225840

  13. Flying into the future: aviation emissions scenarios to 2050.

    PubMed

    Owen, Bethan; Lee, David S; Lim, Ling

    2010-04-01

    This study describes the methodology and results for calculating future global aviation emissions of carbon dioxide and oxides of nitrogen from air traffic under four of the IPCC/SRES (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change/Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) marker scenarios: A1B, A2, B1, and B2. In addition, a mitigation scenario has been calculated for the B1 scenario, requiring rapid and significant technology development and transition. A global model of aircraft movements and emissions (FAST) was used to calculate fuel use and emissions to 2050 with a further outlook to 2100. The aviation emission scenarios presented are designed to interpret the SRES and have been developed to aid in the quantification of the climate change impacts of aviation. Demand projections are made for each scenario, determined by SRES economic growth factors and the SRES storylines. Technology trends are examined in detail and developed for each scenario providing plausible projections for fuel efficiency and emissions control technology appropriate to the individual SRES storylines. The technology trends that are applied are calculated from bottom-up inventory calculations and industry technology trends and targets. Future emissions of carbon dioxide are projected to grow between 2000 and 2050 by a factor in the range of 2.0 and 3.6 depending on the scenario. Emissions of oxides of nitrogen associated with aviation over the same period are projected to grow by between a factor of 1.2 and 2.7.

  14. Insights into future air quality: a multipollutant analysis of future scenarios using the MARKAL model

    EPA Science Inventory

    In this presentation, we will provide an update on the development and evaluation of the Air Quality Futures (AQF) scenarios. These scenarios represent widely different assumptions regarding the evolution of the U.S. energy system over the next 40 years. The four AQF scenarios di...

  15. Forecast of Future Aviation Fuels. Part 1: Scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    English, J. M.; Liu, C. Y.; Smith, J. L.; Yin, A. K. K.; Pan, G. A.; Ayati, M. B.; Gyamfi, M.; Arabzadah, M. R.

    1978-01-01

    A preliminary set of scenarios is described for depicting the air transport industry as it grows and changes, up to the year 2025. This provides the background for predicting the needs for future aviation fuels to meet the requirements of the industry as new basic sources, such as oil shale and coal, which are utilized to supplement petroleum. Five scenarios are written to encompass a range of futures from a serious resource-constrained economy to a continuous and optimistic economic growth. A unique feature is the choice of one immediate range scenario which is based on a serious interruption of economic growth occasioned by an energy shortfall. This is presumed to occur due to lags in starting a synfuels program.

  16. The role of the uncertainty in assessing future scenarios of water shortage in alluvial aquifers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Romano, Emanuele; Camici, Stefania; Brocca, Luca; Moramarco, Tommaso; Guyennon, Nicolas; Preziosi, Elisabetta

    2015-04-01

    There are many evidences that the combined effects of variations in precipitation and temperature due to climate change can result in a significant change of the recharge to groundwater at different time scales. A possible reduction of effective infiltration can result in a significant decrease, temporary or permanent, of the availability of the resource and, consequently, the sustainable pumping rate should be reassessed. In addition to this, one should also consider the so called indirect impacts of climate change, resulting from human intervention (e.g. augmentation of abstractions) which are feared to be even more important than the direct ones in the medium term: thus, a possible increase of episodes of shortage (i.e. the inability of the groundwater system to completely supply the water demand) can result both from change in the climate forcing and change in the demand. In order to assess future scenarios of water shortage a modelling chain is often used. It includes: 1) the use of General Circulation Models to estimate changes in temperature and precipitation; 2) downscaling procedures to match modeling scenarios to the observed meteorological time series; 3) soil-atmosphere modelling to estimate the time variation of the recharge to the aquifer; 4) groundwater flow models to simulate the water budget and piezometric head evolution; 5) future scenarios of groundwater quantitative status that include scenarios of demand variation. It is well known that each of these processing steps is affected by an intrinsic uncertainty that propagates through the whole chain leading to a final uncertainty on the piezometric head scenarios. The estimate of such an uncertainty is a key point for a correct management of groundwater resources, in case of water shortage due to prolonged droughts as well as for planning purposes. This study analyzes the uncertainty of the processing chain from GCM scenarios to its impact on an alluvial aquifer in terms of exploitation

  17. Patient HC with developmental amnesia can construct future scenarios.

    PubMed

    Hurley, Niamh C; Maguire, Eleanor A; Vargha-Khadem, Faraneh

    2011-11-01

    Deficits in recalling the past and imagining fictitious and future scenarios have been documented in patients with hippocampal damage and amnesia that was acquired in adulthood. By contrast patients with very early hippocampal damage and developmental amnesia are not impaired relative to control participants when imagining fictitious/future experiences. Recently, however, a patient (HC) with developmental amnesia, resulting from bilateral hippocampal atrophy, was reported to be impaired, thus raising a question about the true nature of event construction in the context of developmental amnesia. Here, we assessed HC on a test of imagination which explored her ability to construct fictitious events or personal plausible future events. Her scenario descriptions were analysed in detail along a range of parameters, using two different scoring methods. HC's performance was comparable to matched control participants on all measures relating to the imagination of fictitious and future scenarios. We then considered why she was reported as impaired in the previous study. We conclude that various features of the previous testing methodology may have contributed to the underestimation of HC's ability in that instance. Patients like HC with developmental amnesia may be successful at future-thinking tasks because their performance is not based on true visualisation or scene construction supported by the hippocampus, but rather on preserved world knowledge and semantic representations.

  18. Patient HC with developmental amnesia can construct future scenarios

    PubMed Central

    Hurley, Niamh C.; Maguire, Eleanor A.; Vargha-Khadem, Faraneh

    2011-01-01

    Deficits in recalling the past and imagining fictitious and future scenarios have been documented in patients with hippocampal damage and amnesia that was acquired in adulthood. By contrast patients with very early hippocampal damage and developmental amnesia are not impaired relative to control participants when imagining fictitious/future experiences. Recently, however, a patient (HC) with developmental amnesia, resulting from bilateral hippocampal atrophy, was reported to be impaired, thus raising a question about the true nature of event construction in the context of developmental amnesia. Here, we assessed HC on a test of imagination which explored her ability to construct fictitious events or personal plausible future events. Her scenario descriptions were analysed in detail along a range of parameters, using two different scoring methods. HC's performance was comparable to matched control participants on all measures relating to the imagination of fictitious and future scenarios. We then considered why she was reported as impaired in the previous study. We conclude that various features of the previous testing methodology may have contributed to the underestimation of HC's ability in that instance. Patients like HC with developmental amnesia may be successful at future-thinking tasks because their performance is not based on true visualisation or scene construction supported by the hippocampus, but rather on preserved world knowledge and semantic representations. PMID:21964201

  19. Designing a Methodology for Future Air Travel Scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wuebbles, Donald J.; Baughcum, Steven L.; Gerstle, John H.; Edmonds, Jae; Kinnison, Douglas E.; Krull, Nick; Metwally, Munir; Mortlock, Alan; Prather, Michael J.

    1992-01-01

    -subsonic future fleet. The methodology, procedures, and recommendations for the development of future HSCT and the subsonic fleet scenarios used for this evaluation are discussed.

  20. Biodiversity scenarios neglect future land-use changes.

    PubMed

    Titeux, Nicolas; Henle, Klaus; Mihoub, Jean-Baptiste; Regos, Adrián; Geijzendorffer, Ilse R; Cramer, Wolfgang; Verburg, Peter H; Brotons, Lluís

    2016-07-01

    Efficient management of biodiversity requires a forward-looking approach based on scenarios that explore biodiversity changes under future environmental conditions. A number of ecological models have been proposed over the last decades to develop these biodiversity scenarios. Novel modelling approaches with strong theoretical foundation now offer the possibility to integrate key ecological and evolutionary processes that shape species distribution and community structure. Although biodiversity is affected by multiple threats, most studies addressing the effects of future environmental changes on biodiversity focus on a single threat only. We examined the studies published during the last 25 years that developed scenarios to predict future biodiversity changes based on climate, land-use and land-cover change projections. We found that biodiversity scenarios mostly focus on the future impacts of climate change and largely neglect changes in land use and land cover. The emphasis on climate change impacts has increased over time and has now reached a maximum. Yet, the direct destruction and degradation of habitats through land-use and land-cover changes are among the most significant and immediate threats to biodiversity. We argue that the current state of integration between ecological and land system sciences is leading to biased estimation of actual risks and therefore constrains the implementation of forward-looking policy responses to biodiversity decline. We suggest research directions at the crossroads between ecological and environmental sciences to face the challenge of developing interoperable and plausible projections of future environmental changes and to anticipate the full range of their potential impacts on biodiversity. An intergovernmental platform is needed to stimulate such collaborative research efforts and to emphasize the societal and political relevance of taking up this challenge. PMID:26950650

  1. Steering a Future through Scenarios: Into the Academic Library of the Future

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    O'Connor, Steve; Au, Lai-chong

    2009-01-01

    Scenario planning as a strategic tool for future planning was explored. The case study showed how the Hong Kong Polytechnic University Library applied the process to draw up its preferred future, and illustrated the importance of involving all stakeholders in every stage for the shared future to be acceptable to all.

  2. Systems analysis of past, present, and future chemical terrorism scenarios.

    SciTech Connect

    Hoette, Trisha Marie

    2012-03-01

    Throughout history, as new chemical threats arose, strategies for the defense against chemical attacks have also evolved. As a part of an Early Career Laboratory Directed Research and Development project, a systems analysis of past, present, and future chemical terrorism scenarios was performed to understand how the chemical threats and attack strategies change over time. For the analysis, the difficulty in executing chemical attack was evaluated within a framework of three major scenario elements. First, historical examples of chemical terrorism were examined to determine how the use of chemical threats, versus other weapons, contributed to the successful execution of the attack. Using the same framework, the future of chemical terrorism was assessed with respect to the impact of globalization and new technologies. Finally, the efficacy of the current defenses against contemporary chemical terrorism was considered briefly. The results of this analysis justify the need for continued diligence in chemical defense.

  3. Insights into future air quality: Analysis of future emissions scenarios using the MARKAL model

    EPA Science Inventory

    This presentation will provide an update on the development and evaluation of four Air Quality Futures (AQF) scenarios. These scenarios represent widely different assumptions regarding the evolution of the U.S. energy system over the next 40 years. The primary differences between...

  4. Quantification of subsurface heat storage in a GCM simulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    MacDougall, Andrew H.; González-Rouco, J. Fidel; Stevens, M. Bruce; Beltrami, Hugo

    2008-07-01

    Shallow bottom boundary conditions (BBCs) in the soil components of general circulation models (GCMs) impose artificial limits on subsurface heat storage. To assess this problem we estimate the subsurface heat content from two future climate simulations and compare to that obtained from an offline soil model (FDLSM) driven by GCM skin temperatures. FDLSM is then used as an offline substitute for the subsurface of the GCM ECHO-G. With a 600-m BBC and driven by ECHO-G future temperatures, the FDLSM subsurface absorbs 6.2 (7.5) times more heat than the ECHO-G soil model (10 m deep) under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A2 (B2) emission scenario. This suggests that shallow BBCs in GCM simulations may underestimate the heat stored in the subsurface, particularly for northern high latitudes. This effect could be relevant in assessing the energy balance and climate change in the next century.

  5. Sensitivity of future continental United States water deficit projections to general circulation models, the evapotranspiration estimation method, and the greenhouse gas emission scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chang, Seungwoo; Graham, Wendy D.; Hwang, Syewoon; Muñoz-Carpena, Rafael

    2016-08-01

    Projecting water deficit under various possible future climate scenarios depends on the choice of general circulation model (GCM), reference evapotranspiration (ET0) estimation method, and Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) trajectory. The relative contribution of each of these factors must be evaluated in order to choose an appropriate ensemble of future scenarios for water resources planning. In this study variance-based global sensitivity analysis and Monte Carlo filtering were used to evaluate the relative sensitivity of projected changes in precipitation (P), ET0, and water deficit (defined here as P-ET0) to choice of GCM, ET0 estimation method, and RCP trajectory over the continental United States (US) for two distinct future periods: 2030-2060 (future period 1) and 2070-2100 (future period 2). A total of 9 GCMs, 10 ET0 methods, and 3 RCP trajectories were used to quantify the range of future projections and estimate the relative sensitivity of future projections to each of these factors. In general, for all regions of the continental US, changes in future precipitation are most sensitive to the choice of GCM, while changes in future ET0 are most sensitive to the choice of ET0 estimation method. For changes in future water deficit, the choice of GCM is the most influential factor in the cool season (December-March), and the choice of ET0 estimation method is most important in the warm season (May-October) for all regions except the Southeast US, where GCMs and ET0 have approximately equal influence throughout most of the year. Although the choice of RCP trajectory is generally less important than the choice of GCM or ET0 method, the impact of RCP trajectory increases in future period 2 over future period 1 for all factors. Monte Carlo filtering results indicate that particular GCMs and ET0 methods drive the projection of wetter or drier future conditions much more than RCP trajectory; however, the set of GCMs and ET0 methods that produce wetter or

  6. Asian water futures - Multi scenarios, models and criteria assessment -

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Satoh, Yusuke; Burek, Peter; Wada, Yoshihide; Flrörke, Martina; Eisner, Stephanie; Hanasaki, Naota; Kahil, Taher; Tramberend, Sylvia; Fischer, Günther; Wiberg, David

    2016-04-01

    A better understanding of the current and future availability of water resources is essential for the implementation of the recently agreed Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Long-term/efficient strategies for coping with current and potential future water-related challenges are urgently required. Although Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) were develop for the impact assessment of climate change, very few assessments have yet used the SSPs to assess water resources. Then the IIASA Water Futures and Solutions Initiative (WFaS), developed a set of water use scenarios consistent with RCPs and SSPs and applying the latest climate changes scenarios. Here this study focuses on results for Asian countries for the period 2010-2050. We present three conceivable future pathways of Asian water resources, determined by feasible combinations of two RCPs and three SSPs. Such a scenario approach provides valuable insights towards identifying appropriate strategies as gaps between a "scenario world" and reality. In addition, for the assessment of future water resources a multi-criteria analysis is applied. A classification system for countries and watershed that consists of two broad dimensions: (i) economic and institutional adaptive capacity, (ii) hydrological complexity. The latter is composed of several sub-indexes including total renewable water resources per capita, the ratio of water demand to renewable water resource, variability of runoff and dependency ratio to external. Furthermore, this analysis uses a multi-model approach to estimate runoff and discharge using 5 GCMs and 5 global hydrological models (GHMs). Three of these GHMs calculate water use based on a consistent set of scenarios in addition to water availability. As a result, we have projected hot spots of water scarcity in Asia and their spatial and temporal change. For example, in a scenario based on SSP2 and RCP6.0, by 2050, in total 2.1 billion people

  7. Scenario projections for future market potentials of biobased bulk chemicals.

    PubMed

    Dornburg, Veronika; Hermann, Barbara G; Patel, Martin K

    2008-04-01

    Three scenario projections for future market potentials of biobased bulk chemicals produced by means of white biotechnology are developed for Europe (EU-25) until the year 2050, and potential nonrenewable energy savings, greenhouse gas emission reduction, and land use consequences are analyzed. These scenarios assume benign, moderate, and disadvantageous conditions for biobased chemicals. The scenario analysis yields a broad range of values for the possible market development of white biotechnology chemicals, that is, resulting in a share of white biotechnology chemicals relative to all organic chemicals of about 7 (or 5 million tonnes), 17.5 (or 26 million tonnes), or 38% (or 113 million tonnes) in 2050. We conclude that under favorable conditions, white biotechnology enables substantial savings of nonrenewable energy use (NREU) and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions compared to the energy use of the future production of all organic chemicals from fossil resources. Savings of NREU reach up to 17% for starch crops and up to 31% for lignocellulosic feedstock by 2050, and saving percentages for GHG emissions are in a similar range. Parallel to these environmental benefits, economic advantages of up to 75 billion Euro production cost savings arise. PMID:18504951

  8. Future Fuel Scenarios and Their Potential Impact to Aviation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hendricks, Robert C.; Daggett, David L.; Anast, Peter; Lowery, Nathan

    2011-01-01

    In recent years fuel prices have been growing at a rapid pace. Current conservative projections predict that this is only a function of the natural volatility of oil prices, similar to the oil price spikes experienced in the 1970s. However, there is growing concern among analysts that the current price increases may not only be permanent, but that prices may continue to increase into the future before settling down at a much higher level than today. At high enough fuel prices, the aircraft industry would become very sensitive to fuel price. In this paper, the likelihood of fuel price increase is considered in three different price increase scenarios: "low," "medium," and "high." The impact of these scenarios on the aviation industry and alternatives are also addressed.

  9. Future Fuel Scenarios and Their Potential Impact to Aviation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hendricks, Robert C.; Lowery, Nathan; Daggett, David L.; Anast, Peter

    2007-01-01

    In recent years fuel prices have been growing at a rapid pace. Current conservative projections predict that this is only a function of the natural volatility of oil prices, similar to the oil price spikes experienced in the 1970s. However, there is growing concern among analysts that the current price increases may not only be permanent, but that prices may continue to increase into the future before settling down at a much higher level than today. At high enough fuel prices, the aircraft industry would become very sensitive to fuel price. In this paper, the likelihood of fuel price increase is considered in three different price increase scenarios: "low," "medium," and "high." The impact of these scenarios on the aviation industry and alternatives are also addressed.

  10. The Workplace of the Future: Insights from Futures Scenarios and Today's High Performance Workplaces.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Curtain, Richard

    1998-01-01

    Studies of the workplace of the future that used scenario-planning methodology and survey data suggest that nonmarket organizations will provide stability for temporary workers and result in the emergence of networks. Survey data suggest that future workplaces will foster intellectual capital through research and development. (JOW)

  11. Geriatric medicine in the European Union: future scenarios.

    PubMed

    Duursma, S A; Overstall, P W

    2003-06-01

    The differences in training and services in geriatric medicine between European Union member countries raise some questions: what is a geriatrician, what is geriatric medicine, what will be the future development of the specialty and how does it interact with other medical specialties? To find answers to these questions, a questionnaire was sent to a selected group of 122 geriatricians. The response rate was 60%. A description has been given of what is a geriatrician and what is geriatric medicine. Based on data from the literature and the answers of the respondents six future scenarios were designed. The six scenarios are: the 'healthy old people', the 'adapted specialties', the 'general practitioner + additional training', the 'co-ordinator geriatrician', the 'community geriatrician' and the 'hospital geriatrician'. The answers of the respondents gave doubts whether general practitioners are able to provide the full range of services for geriatric patients in the community. A small majority of the respondents opted for a division of the specialty into community geriatric medicine and hospital geriatric medicine. Such a division offers good opportunities to raise the quality of medical services and to reduce age-related treatment limitation. It is expected that some aspects of geriatric medicine will be included in the training of other specialties and some GPs will obtain additional training. The collected data can not be considered as a representation of the ideas of the European Union geriatricians. However, they may contribute to the discussion on the national and European level about the future of the specialty.

  12. Future scenarios for viticultural bioclimatic indices in Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Santos, João.; Malheiro, Aureliano C.; Fraga, Helder; Pinto, Joaquim G.

    2010-05-01

    Winemaking has a predominant economic, social and environmental relevance in several European countries. Studies addressing the influence of climate variability and change in viticulture are particularly pertinent, as climate is one of the main conditioning factors of this activity. In this context, bioclimatic indices are a useful zoning tool, allowing the description of the suitability of a particular region for wine production. In this study, we compute climatic indices (concerning to thermal and hydrological conditions) for Europe, characterize regions with different viticultural aptitude, and assess possible variations in these regions under a future climate conditions using a state-of-the-art regional climate model. The indices are calculated from climatic variables (mostly daily maximum and minimum temperatures and precipitation) obtained from the NCEP reanalysis dataset. Then, the same indices are calculated for present and future climate conditions using data from the regional climate model COSMO-CLM (Consortium for Small Scale Modelling - Climate Limited-area Modelling). Maps of theses indices for recent-past periods (1961-2008) and for the SRES A1B scenario are considered in order to identify significant changes in their patterns. Results show that climate change is projected to have a significant negative impact in wine quality by increased dryness and cumulative thermal effects during growing seasons in Southern European regions (e.g. Portugal, Spain and Italy). These changes represent an important constraint to grapevine growth and development, making crucial adaptation/mitigation strategies to be adopted. On the other hand, regions of western and central Europe (e.g. southern Britain, northern France and Germany) will benefit from this scenario both in wine quality, and in new potential areas for viticulture. This approach provides a macro-characterization of European areas where grapevines may preferentially grow, as well as their projected changes

  13. Viticultural zoning in Portugal: current conditions and future scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fraga, H.; Santos, J. A.; Malheiro, A. C.; Moutinho-Pereira, J.

    2012-04-01

    Viticulture and wine production represent a main economic activity of the agro-production sector in Portugal, particularly over some world famous winemaking regions, such as the Port Wine / Douro Valley, Minho and Alentejo. As viticultural zoning provides valuable information regarding the suitability of a given grapevine variety to local climatic conditions, it is thus of great interest to the Portuguese winemaking sector. Furthermore, projected future climates are also likely to have important impacts on this zoning. Therefore, in the current study we aim at 1) discussing the current viticultural zoning in Portugal, and 2) assessing its future changes under anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing (A1B SRES scenario) in the 2011-2070 time period. A set of appropriate bioclimatic indices, computed using temperatures and precipitations defined on a daily basis, is used for viticultural zoning. For the assessment of the recent-past conditions an observational gridded dataset (E-OBS) is used, while for future climate change projections, a 16-member ensemble of model experiments (ENSEMBLES project dataset), is considered. Overall, statistically significant increases (decreases) in the thermally-based (humidity-based) indices are projected to occur in the future throughout the country, particularly over its southern and innermost regions. All these changes are in agreement with the widely accepted projections for warmer and dryer Southern European climates. High impacts are found in the most important winemaking regions in Portugal, highlighting the urgent need for developing suitable adaptation and mitigation measures so as to cope with a changing climate. A reshaping of the viticultural regions is thereby expected to occur within the next decades over Portugal.

  14. A new simple method to incorporate climate variability in probabilistic climate change scenarios, applied to assessing future river flooding in the UK.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ledbetter, Ralph; Prudhomme, Christel; Arnell, Nigel

    2010-05-01

    Understanding the impacts of climate change is crucial for adaptation and mitigation policy decisions. This is particularly true for the water sector and flood risk as they have a direct link with climate, and climate change might result in a potentially changed risk to society. Increasingly water managers request probabilistic projections of climate change impacts so they can incorporate uncertainty in their strategic planning. Climate change impact studies often rely on scenarios from global climate models (GCMs) or regional climate models (RCMs), but until recently, very few probabilistic climate change scenarios were available, thus making it difficult to generate probabilistic impact assessments. In addition, climate variability, which is known to play a significant role in the generation of floods and in the management of flood risk, is not always explicitly accounted for in climate change impact studies. In particular natural variability is often considered as stationary in future impact assessments. A new simple methodology is presented here that develops probabilistic climate change scenarios incorporating baseline and future variability of GCM outputs. The method is based on the change factor method, where the changing climate is defined as monthly differences between a future climate and a baseline climate. This change factor method has been widely used as a simple method to remove bias in GCMs, particular important for precipitation. Usually, for a GCM, both future and baseline climate are taken as the average of a 30-year GCM output time series, typically 2071-2100 for the 2080s future climate, and 1961-1990 as baseline climate. Instead, for each future and baseline, we randomly sample (with replacement) any monthly average from the relevant 30-year period to build multiple synthetic 30-year time series. Each multiple time series can then be used to calculate change factors, exactly as it is done for a single GCM realisation. By repeating the process

  15. China's sustainable energy future: Scenarios of energy and carbonemissions (Summary)

    SciTech Connect

    Zhou, Dadi; Levine, Mark; Dai, Yande; Yu, Cong; Guo, Yuan; Sinton, Jonathan E.; Lewis, Joanna I.; Zhu, Yuezhong

    2004-03-10

    China has ambitious goals for economic development, and mustfind ways to power the achievement of those goals that are bothenvironmentally and socially sustainable. Integration into the globaleconomy presents opportunities for technological improvement and accessto energy resources. China also has options for innovative policies andmeasures that could significantly alter the way energy is acquired andused. These opportunities andoptions, along with long-term social,demographic, and economic trends, will shape China s future energysystem, and consequently its contribution to emissions of greenhousegases, particularly carbon dioxide (CO2). In this study, entitled China sSustainable Energy Future: Scenarios of Energy and Carbon Emissions, theEnergy Research Institute (ERI), an independent analytic organizationunder China's Na tional Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), soughtto explore in detail how China could achieve the goals of the TenthFive-Year Plan and its longer term aims through a sustainable developmentstrategy. China's ability to forge a sustainable energy path has globalconsequences. China's annual emissions of greenhouse gases comprisenearly half of those from developing countries, and 12 percent of globalemissions. Most of China's greenhouse gas emissions are in the form ofCO2, 87 percent of which came from energy use in 2000. In that year,China's carbon emissions from energy use and cement production were 760million metric tons (Mt-C), second only to the 1,500 Mt-C emitted by theUS (CDIAC, 2003). As China's energy consumption continues to increase,greenhouse gas emissions are expected to inevitably increase into thefuture. However, the rate at which energy consumption and emissions willincrease can vary significantly depending on whether sustainabledevelopment is recognized as an important policy goal. If the ChineseGovernment chooses to adopt measures to enhance energy efficiency andimprove the overall structure of energy supply, it is possible

  16. Atlantic Hurricanes in Future Scenarios and Associated Insurance Losses

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kleppek, S.; Wüest, M.; Raible, C. C.; Kitoh, A.; Murakami, H.; Stocker, T. F.; Muccione, V.; Bresch, D. N.

    2009-04-01

    The hurricane season 2005 in the Atlantic was the most intense season since the first records with 28 tropical storms of which 15 reached hurricane character (Trenberth and Shea, 2006). Although this year is considered to be an outlier, a substantial increase of the activity of tropical cyclones (TCs) in the tropical Atlantic over the last decades is documented (Sriver and Huber, 2006; Hoyos et al., 2006; Webster et al. 2005; Emanuel, 2005). The role of the sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic for the tropical storm activity was discussed already in Emanuel (2005) and Hoyos et al. (2006). Future changes of TC activity is currently under debate (e. g. Bengston et al., 2007). We contribute to this by applying our TC detection and tracking method which was developed for ERA-40 data (Kleppek et al., 2008) to time-slice experiments of two models: The ECHAM5 atmospheric model (MPI, Hamburg, Germany) and the 20 km-mesh, high resolution AGCM (MRI, Tsukuba-city, Japan). From each model two climate simulations are available: For the ECHAM5 a control run for the period 1960-90 and a SRES A2 scenario run for the period 2070-2100 and for the Mesh-AGCM a 20 years run with present day conditions and a 20 years run with end-of-21-century A2 conditions. To estimate losses of the ECHAM5- and Mesh-model hurricanes on the US coast, we have developed probabilistic hurricane event sets which are used as input for catXos, the loss model of the Swiss Reinsurance Company. Preliminary results show higher wind speeds of the ECHAM5 scenario run hurricanes than in the control run, but the numbers of the hurricanes of Saffir-Simpson-scale 2 to 4 show no clear difference between the control and scenario run of ECHAM5. Even though the resolution of the simulation is rather high no hurricanes of Saffir-Simpson-scale 5 are detected. The total number of TCs decreases for the scenario run. This applies as much to the TCs over the Atlantic as over the US-coast. References: Bengston L., K

  17. Sustainable WEE management in Malaysia: present scenarios and future perspectives

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rezaul Hasan Shumon, Md; Ahmed, S.

    2013-12-01

    Technological advances have resulted development of a lot of electronic products for continuously increasing number of customers. As the customer taste and features of these products change rapidly, the life cycles have come down tremendously. Therefore, a large volume of e-wastes are now emanated every year. This scenario is very much predominant in Malaysia. On one hand e-wastes are becoming environmental hazards and affecting the ecological imbalance. On the other, these wastes are remaining still economically valuable. In Malaysia, e-waste management system is still in its nascent state. This paper describes the current status of e-waste generation and recycling and explores issues for future e-waste management system in Malaysia from sustainable point of view. As to draw some factual comparisons, this paper reviews the e-waste management system in European Union, USA, Japan, as a benchmark. Then it focuses on understanding the Malaysian culture, consumer discarding behavior, flow of the materials in recycling, e-waste management system, and presents a comparative view with the Swiss e-waste system. Sustainable issues for e-waste management in Malaysia are also presented. The response adopted so far in collection and recovery activities are covered in later phases. Finally, it investigates the barriers and challenges of e-waste system in Malaysia.

  18. A dataset of future daily weather data for crop modelling over Europe derived from climate change scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Duveiller, G.; Donatelli, M.; Fumagalli, D.; Zucchini, A.; Nelson, R.; Baruth, B.

    2015-10-01

    Coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (GCMs) simulate different realizations of possible future climates at global scale under contrasting scenarios of land-use and greenhouse gas emissions. Such data require several additional processing steps before it can be used to drive impact models. Spatial downscaling, typically by regional climate models (RCM), and bias-correction are two such steps that have already been addressed for Europe. Yet, the errors in resulting daily meteorological variables may be too large for specific model applications. Crop simulation models are particularly sensitive to these inconsistencies and thus require further processing of GCM-RCM outputs. Moreover, crop models are often run in a stochastic manner by using various plausible weather time series (often generated using stochastic weather generators) to represent climate time scale for a period of interest (e.g. 2000 ± 15 years), while GCM simulations typically provide a single time series for a given emission scenario. To inform agricultural policy-making, data on near- and medium-term decadal time scale is mostly requested, e.g. 2020 or 2030. Taking a sample of multiple years from these unique time series to represent time horizons in the near future is particularly problematic because selecting overlapping years may lead to spurious trends, creating artefacts in the results of the impact model simulations. This paper presents a database of consolidated and coherent future daily weather data for Europe that addresses these problems. Input data consist of daily temperature and precipitation from three dynamically downscaled and bias-corrected regional climate simulations of the IPCC A1B emission scenario created within the ENSEMBLES project. Solar radiation is estimated from temperature based on an auto-calibration procedure. Wind speed and relative air humidity are collected from historical series. From these variables, reference evapotranspiration and vapour pressure

  19. Simulating Future GPS Clock Scenarios with Two Composite Clock Algorithms

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Suess, Matthias; Matsakis, Demetrios; Greenhall, Charles A.

    2010-01-01

    Using the GPS Toolkit, the GPS constellation is simulated using 31 satellites (SV) and a ground network of 17 monitor stations (MS). At every 15-minutes measurement epoch, the monitor stations measure the time signals of all satellites above a parameterized elevation angle. Once a day, the satellite clock estimates the station and satellite clocks. The first composite clock (B) is based on the Brown algorithm, and is now used by GPS. The second one (G) is based on the Greenhall algorithm. The composite clock of G and B performance are investigated using three ground-clock models. Model C simulates the current GPS configuration, in which all stations are equipped with cesium clocks, except for masers at USNO and Alternate Master Clock (AMC) sites. Model M is an improved situation in which every station is equipped with active hydrogen masers. Finally, Models F and O are future scenarios in which the USNO and AMC stations are equipped with fountain clocks instead of masers. Model F is a rubidium fountain, while Model O is more precise but futuristic Optical Fountain. Each model is evaluated using three performance metrics. The timing-related user range error having all satellites available is the first performance index (PI1). The second performance index (PI2) relates to the stability of the broadcast GPS system time itself. The third performance index (PI3) evaluates the stability of the time scales computed by the two composite clocks. A distinction is made between the "Signal-in-Space" accuracy and that available through a GNSS receiver.

  20. Planning for Crew Exercise for Future Deep Space Mission Scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Moore, Cherice; Ryder, Jeff

    2015-01-01

    Providing the necessary exercise capability to protect crew health for deep space missions will bring new sets of engineering and research challenges. Exercise has been found to be a necessary mitigation for maintaining crew health on-orbit and preparing the crew for return to earth's gravity. Health and exercise data from Apollo, Space Lab, Shuttle, and International Space Station missions have provided insight into crew deconditioning and the types of activities that can minimize the impacts of microgravity on the physiological systems. The hardware systems required to implement exercise can be challenging to incorporate into spaceflight vehicles. Exercise system design requires encompassing the hardware required to provide mission specific anthropometrical movement ranges, desired loads, and frequencies of desired movements as well as the supporting control and monitoring systems, crew and vehicle interfaces, and vibration isolation and stabilization subsystems. The number of crew and operational constraints also contribute to defining the what exercise systems will be needed. All of these features require flight vehicle mass and volume integrated with multiple vehicle systems. The International Space Station exercise hardware requires over 1,800 kg of equipment and over 24 m3 of volume for hardware and crew operational space. Improvements towards providing equivalent or better capabilities with a smaller vehicle impact will facilitate future deep space missions. Deep space missions will require more understanding of the physiological responses to microgravity, understanding appropriate mitigations, designing the exercise systems to provide needed mitigations, and integrating effectively into vehicle design with a focus to support planned mission scenarios. Recognizing and addressing the constraints and challenges can facilitate improved vehicle design and exercise system incorporation.

  1. Four futures for dietetics workforce supply and demand: 2012-2022 scenarios.

    PubMed

    Rhea, Marsha; Bettles, Craig

    2012-03-01

    The four future views of dietetics workforce supply and demand that will be discussed in this paper illustrate the critical changes and choices ahead for the profession if registered dietitians and dietetic technicians, registered want vital roles in nutrition, food, and health. These scenarios were built using a four-quadrant approach based on workforce supply and demand. This yielded four views: a preferred future of high supply, high demand; an underprepared future of low supply, high demand; an overproduced future of high supply, low demand, and a feared future of low supply, low demand. These scenarios are not projections about the future; rather, they are designed to help the profession prepare for the future. Registered dietitian leaders participating in a scenario workshop judged either the overproduced or underprepared scenarios to be the most likely future and the preferred future to be the most challenging for the profession.

  2. Future Extreme Heat Scenarios to Enable the Assessment of Climate Impacts on Public Health over the Coterminous U.S

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Quattrochi, D. A.; Crosson, W. L.; Al-Hamdan, M. Z.; Estes, M. G., Jr.

    2013-12-01

    In the United States, extreme heat is the most deadly weather-related hazard. In the face of a warming climate and urbanization, which contributes to local-scale urban heat islands, it is very likely that extreme heat events (EHEs) will become more common and more severe in the U.S. This research seeks to provide historical and future measures of climate-driven extreme heat events to enable assessments of the impacts of heat on public health over the coterminous U.S. We use atmospheric temperature and humidity information from meteorological reanalysis and from Global Climate Models (GCMs) to provide data on past and future heat events. The focus of research is on providing assessments of the magnitude, frequency and geographic distribution of extreme heat in the U.S. to facilitate public health studies. In our approach, long-term climate change is captured with GCM outputs, and the temporal and spatial characteristics of short-term extremes are represented by the reanalysis data. Two future time horizons for 2040 and 2090 are compared to the recent past period of 1981-2000. We characterize regional-scale temperature and humidity conditions using GCM outputs for two climate change scenarios (A2 and A1B) defined in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). For each future period, 20 years of multi-model GCM outputs are analyzed to develop a ';heat stress climatology' based on statistics of extreme heat indicators. Differences between the two future and the past period are used to define temperature and humidity changes on a monthly time scale and regional spatial scale. These changes are combined with the historical meteorological data, which is hourly and at a spatial scale (12 km) much finer than that of GCMs, to create future climate realizations. From these realizations, we compute the daily heat stress measures and related spatially-specific climatological fields, such as the mean annual number of days above certain thresholds of maximum and minimum air

  3. Future Extreme Heat Scenarios to Enable the Assessment of Climate Impacts on Public Health over the Coterminous U.S.

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Quattrochi, Dale A.; Crosson, William L.; Al-Hamdan, Mohammad Z.; Estes, Maurice G., Jr.

    2013-01-01

    In the United States, extreme heat is the most deadly weather-related hazard. In the face of a warming climate and urbanization, which contributes to local-scale urban heat islands, it is very likely that extreme heat events (EHEs) will become more common and more severe in the U.S. This research seeks to provide historical and future measures of climate-driven extreme heat events to enable assessments of the impacts of heat on public health over the coterminous U.S. We use atmospheric temperature and humidity information from meteorological reanalysis and from Global Climate Models (GCMs) to provide data on past and future heat events. The focus of research is on providing assessments of the magnitude, frequency and geographic distribution of extreme heat in the U.S. to facilitate public health studies. In our approach, long-term climate change is captured with GCM outputs, and the temporal and spatial characteristics of short-term extremes are represented by the reanalysis data. Two future time horizons for 2040 and 2090 are compared to the recent past period of 1981- 2000. We characterize regional-scale temperature and humidity conditions using GCM outputs for two climate change scenarios (A2 and A1B) defined in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). For each future period, 20 years of multi-model GCM outputs are analyzed to develop a 'heat stress climatology' based on statistics of extreme heat indicators. Differences between the two future and the past period are used to define temperature and humidity changes on a monthly time scale and regional spatial scale. These changes are combined with the historical meteorological data, which is hourly and at a spatial scale (12 km), to create future climate realizations. From these realizations, we compute the daily heat stress measures and related spatially-specific climatological fields, such as the mean annual number of days above certain thresholds of maximum and minimum air temperatures, heat indices

  4. Climate impacts of the ECLIPSE future emissions mitigation scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baker, Laura; Collins, Bill; Olivie, Dirk; Cherian, Ribu; Quaas, Johannes; Myhre, Gunnar; Hodnebrog, Oivind; Skeie, Ragnhild

    2016-04-01

    We investigate the possible near-term climate benefits from mitigating aerosols, ozone and methane. The ECLIPSE (Evaluating the Climate and Air Quality Impacts of Short-Lived Pollutants) project developed a realistic emissions inventory based on current legislation for 2005-2050 (CLE), and a corresponding mitigation scenario designed to be beneficial for both air quality and short-term climate impact (MIT). We determine the climate impacts of the MIT scenario, focussing on the period 2040-2050. Four climate models with interactive chemistry and aerosols (HadGEM, NorESM, CESM-CAM4 and ECHAM-HAM) are used to provide multi-model ensembles of both atmosphere-only and coupled atmosphere-ocean simulations, to separate the effective radiative forcing (ERF) and the climate response. The ERFs are derived from the atmosphere-only simulations. In all models the MIT scenario leads to a negative global ERF which is driven mainly by methane emissions reductions. There is variability between models in the relative importance of methane and aerosol emissions reductions, and in the sign of ERF response to aerosol emissions reductions. The climate response to MIT is derived from the coupled simulations. In all models, MIT results in a decrease in the global mean temperature compared to CLE, with a model mean decrease of 0.22°C. The temperature decrease is seen most strongly in the Northern Hemisphere and is particularly strong in the Arctic. The ensembles of coupled-ocean simulations have therefore enabled us to identify a robust cooling signal from the air quality mitigation scenarios, which can be attributed to the different species using the ERFs.

  5. Scenario analysis in environmental impact assessment: Improving explorations of the future

    SciTech Connect

    Duinker, Peter N. . E-mail: peter.duinker@dal.ca; Greig, Lorne A. . E-mail: lgreig@essa.com

    2007-04-15

    Scenarios and scenario analysis have become popular approaches in organizational planning and participatory exercises in pursuit of sustainable development. However, they are little used, at least in any formal way, in environmental impact assessment (EIA). This is puzzling because EIA is a process specifically dedicated to exploring options for more-sustainable (i.e., less environmentally damaging) futures. In this paper, we review the state of the art associated with scenarios and scenario analysis, and describe two areas where scenario analysis could be particularly helpful in EIA: (a) in defining future developments for cumulative effects assessment; and (b) in considering the influence of contextual change - e.g. climate change - on impact forecasts for specific projects. We conclude by encouraging EIA practitioners to learn about the promise of scenario-based analysis and implement scenario-based methods so that EIA can become more effective in fostering sustainable development.

  6. Using scenarios to assess possible future impacts of invasive species in the Laurentian Great Lakes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lauber, T. Bruce; Stedman, Richard C.; Connelly, Nancy A; Rudstam, Lars G.; Ready, Richard C; Poe, Gregory L; Bunnell, David; Hook, Tomas O.; Koops, Marten A.; Ludsin, Stuart A.; Rutherford, Edward S; Wittmann, Marion E.

    2016-01-01

    The expected impacts of invasive species are key considerations in selecting policy responses to potential invasions. But predicting the impacts of invasive species is daunting, particularly in large systems threatened by multiple invasive species, such as North America’s Laurentian Great Lakes. We developed and evaluated a scenario-building process that relied on an expert panel to assess possible future impacts of aquatic invasive species on recreational fishing in the Great Lakes. To maximize its usefulness to policy makers, this process was designed to be implemented relatively rapidly and consider a range of species. The expert panel developed plausible, internally-consistent invasion scenarios for 5 aquatic invasive species, along with subjective probabilities of those scenarios. We describe these scenarios and evaluate this approach for assessing future invasive species impacts. The panel held diverse opinions about the likelihood of the scenarios, and only one scenario with impacts on sportfish species was considered likely by most of the experts. These outcomes are consistent with the literature on scenario building, which advocates for developing a range of plausible scenarios in decision making because the uncertainty of future conditions makes the likelihood of any particular scenario low. We believe that this scenario-building approach could contribute to policy decisions about whether and how to address the possible impacts of invasive species. In this case, scenarios could allow policy makers to narrow the range of possible impacts on Great Lakes fisheries they consider and help set a research agenda for further refining invasive species predictions.

  7. A history of futures: A review of scenario use in water policy studies in the Netherlands

    PubMed Central

    Haasnoot, M.; Middelkoop, H.

    2012-01-01

    The future of human life in the world's river deltas depends on the success of water management. To deal with uncertainties about the future, policymakers in the Netherlands have used scenarios to develop water management strategies for the coastal zone of the Rhine–Meuse delta. In this paper we reflect on six decades of scenario use in the Netherlands, and provide recommendations for future studies. Based on two criteria, ‘Decision robustness’ and ‘Learning success’, we conclude that (1) the possibilities for robust decisionmaking increased through a paradigm shift from predicting to exploring futures, but the scenario method is not yet fully exploited for decisionmaking under uncertainty; and (2) the scenarios enabled learning about possible impacts of developments and effectiveness of policy options. New scenario approaches are emerging to deal with the deep uncertainties water managers are currently facing. PMID:23471143

  8. A history of futures: A review of scenario use in water policy studies in the Netherlands.

    PubMed

    Haasnoot, M; Middelkoop, H

    2012-05-01

    The future of human life in the world's river deltas depends on the success of water management. To deal with uncertainties about the future, policymakers in the Netherlands have used scenarios to develop water management strategies for the coastal zone of the Rhine-Meuse delta. In this paper we reflect on six decades of scenario use in the Netherlands, and provide recommendations for future studies. Based on two criteria, 'Decision robustness' and 'Learning success', we conclude that (1) the possibilities for robust decisionmaking increased through a paradigm shift from predicting to exploring futures, but the scenario method is not yet fully exploited for decisionmaking under uncertainty; and (2) the scenarios enabled learning about possible impacts of developments and effectiveness of policy options. New scenario approaches are emerging to deal with the deep uncertainties water managers are currently facing.

  9. Alternative future scenarios for the SPS comparative assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ayres, R. U.; Ridker, R. G.; Watson, W. D., Jr.; Arnold, J.; Tayi, G.

    1980-08-01

    Terrestrial alternatives are selected, and their cost, performance, and environmental and social attributes are specified for use in the comparison with the SPS in the post 2000 era. Data on alternative technologies were sought from previous research and from other comparisons. The economic/energy interactions are discussed, and a number of specific modelling schemes that were used for long range forecasting purposes are described. This discussion provides the rationale for the choice of a specific model and methodology, which is described. Long range cost assumptions used in the forecast are detailed, and the basis for the selection of specific scenarios follows. Results of the analysis are detailed.

  10. Future waste treatment and energy systems – examples of joint scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Münster, M.; Finnveden, G.; Wenzel, H.

    2013-11-15

    Highlights: • Approach for use of scenarios dealing with both waste management and energy issues. • Overall scenarios for the common project and sub-scenarios in parts of the project. • Combining different types of scenarios to the tools of different disciplines. • Use of explorative external scenarios based on marginals for consequential LCA. - Abstract: Development and use of scenarios for large interdisciplinary projects is a complicated task. This article provides practical examples of how it has been carried out in two projects addressing waste management and energy issues respectively. Based on experiences from the two projects, recommendations are made for an approach concerning development of scenarios in projects dealing with both waste management and energy issues. Recommendations are given to develop and use overall scenarios for the project and leave room for sub-scenarios in parts of the project. Combining different types of scenarios is recommended, too, in order to adapt to the methods and tools of different disciplines, such as developing predictive scenarios with general equilibrium tools and analysing explorative scenarios with energy system analysis tools. Furthermore, as marginals identified in differing future background systems determine the outcomes of consequential life cycle assessments (LCAs), it is considered advisable to develop and use explorative external scenarios based on possible marginals as a framework for consequential LCAs. This approach is illustrated using an on-going Danish research project.

  11. Future scenarios of impacts to ecosystem services on California rangelands

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Byrd, Kristin; Alvarez, Pelayo; Flint, Lorraine; Flint, Alan

    2014-01-01

    The 18 million acres of rangelands in the Central Valley of California provide multiple benefits or “ecosystem services” to people—including wildlife habitat, water supply, open space, recreation, and cultural resources. Most of this land is privately owned and managed for livestock production. These rangelands are vulnerable to land-use conversion and climate change. To help resource managers assess the impacts of land-use change and climate change, U.S. Geological Survey scientists and their cooperators developed scenarios to quantify and map changes to three main rangeland ecosystem services—wildlife habitat, water supply, and carbon sequestration. Project results will help prioritize strategies to conserve these rangelands and the ecosystem services that they provide.

  12. Nuclear power for the future: Implications of some crisis scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Turner, K.H.

    1996-12-31

    As energy issues have dropped from public awareness, electricity demand growth has remained low, deregulation has destabilized the utility decision process, and least-cost regulation has pointed utilities to gas-fired plants for those additions that are coming on-line, the nuclear power industry has begun to ask the question: What will cause nuclear energy to again compete as an option in new, domestic generating capacity additions? Since virtually all of today`s corporate and societal decisions are driven by short-term factors, the preceding question can be translated into: What crisis might occur that would project nuclear as the solution to an immediately perceived problem? Thus, an examination of scenarios that would project nuclear power into the country`s immediate consciousness is in order, along with an analysis of the implications for and challenges to the nuclear industry resulting therefrom. This paper undertakes such an analysis.

  13. Towards "DRONE-BORNE" Disaster Management: Future Application Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tanzi, Tullio Joseph; Chandra, Madhu; Isnard, Jean; Camara, Daniel; Sebastien, Olivier; Harivelo, Fanilo

    2016-06-01

    Information plays a key role in crisis management and relief efforts for natural disaster scenarios. Given their flight properties, UAVs (Unmanned Aerial Vehicles) provide new and interesting perspectives on the data gathering for disaster management. A new generation of UAVs may help to improve situational awareness and information assessment. Among the advantages UAVs may bring to the disaster management field, we can highlight the gain in terms of time and human resources, as they can free rescue teams from time-consuming data collection tasks and assist research operations with more insightful and precise guidance thanks to advanced sensing capabilities. However, in order to be useful, UAVs need to overcome two main challenges. The first one is to achieve a sufficient autonomy level, both in terms of navigation and interpretation of the data sensed. The second major challenge relates to the reliability of the UAV, with respect to accidental (safety) or malicious (security) risks. This paper first discusses the potential of UAV in assisting in different humanitarian relief scenarios, as well as possible issues in such situations. Based on recent experiments, we discuss the inherent advantages of autonomous flight operations, both lone flights and formation flights. The question of autonomy is then addressed and a secure embedded architecture and its specific hardware capabilities is sketched out. We finally present a typical use case based on the new detection and observation abilities that UAVs can bring to rescue teams. Although this approach still has limits that have to be addressed, technically speaking as well as operationally speaking, it seems to be a very promising one to enhance disaster management efforts activities.

  14. The role of future scenarios to understand deep uncertainty

    EPA Science Inventory

    The environment and its interaction with human systems(economic, social and political) is complex and dynamic. Key drivers may disrupt system dynamics in unforeseen ways, making it difficult to predict future conditions precisely. This kind of deep uncertainty presents a challe...

  15. Technology assessment of future intercity passenger transportation systems. Volume 4: Scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1976-01-01

    Four background scenarios that relate to alternative states of society in the next 25 to 50 years are described. The scenarios were developed for use in analyzing and evaluating alternative future intercity transportation technologies. The scenarios are based, in part, on discussions contained in the issue papers and, in part, on separate analysis of social and economic trends considered relevant for the evolution of intercity transportation.

  16. Aerosol effect on climate extremes in Europe under different future scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sillmann, J.; Pozzoli, L.; Vignati, E.; Kloster, S.; Feichter, J.

    2013-05-01

    This study investigates changes in extreme temperature and precipitation events under different future scenarios of anthropogenic aerosol emissions (i.e., SO2 and black and organic carbon) simulated with an aerosol-climate model (ECHAM5-HAM) with focus on Europe. The simulations include a maximum feasible aerosol reduction (MFR) scenario and a current legislation emission (CLEmod) scenario where Europe implements the MFR scenario, but the rest of the world follows the current legislation scenario and a greenhouse gas scenario. The strongest changes relative to the year 2000 are projected for the MFR scenario, in which the global aerosol reduction greatly enforces the general warming effect due to greenhouse gases and results in significant increases of temperature and precipitation extremes in Europe. Regional warming effects can also be identified from aerosol reductions under the CLEmodscenario. This becomes most obvious in the increase of the hottest summer daytime temperatures in Northern Europe.

  17. How will Somali coastal upwelling evolve under future warming scenarios?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Decastro, M.; Sousa, M. C.; Santos, F.; Dias, J. M.; Gómez-Gesteira, M.

    2016-07-01

    Somali upwelling system, the fifth in the world, presents some unique features compared with the other major upwelling systems: 1) it is a Western Boundary Upwelling System located near the Equator and 2) upwelling affects the moisture responsible for monsoon rainfall. The intensity of Somali coastal upwelling during summer was projected for the twenty first century by means of an ensemble of Global Climate Models and Regional Climate Models within the framework of CMIP5 and CORDEX projects, respectively. Regardless global or regional circulation models and the chosen greenhouse warming scenario, the strengthening of Somali coastal upwelling, which increases with latitude, is even higher than observed for the Eastern Boundary Upwelling System. In addition, coastal upwelling strengthening is mainly due to Ekman transport since Ekman pumping shows no clear trend for most of the latitudes. Projected land-sea air temperature and pressure show a clear intensification of land-sea thermal and pressure gradient as a consequence of the global warming, which is likely to affect the strengthening of Somali upwelling verifying the hypothesis of Bakun. As a consequence, projected sea surface temperature warming is less intense nearshore than at oceanic locations, especially at latitudes where upwelling strengthening is more intense.

  18. How will Somali coastal upwelling evolve under future warming scenarios?

    PubMed Central

    deCastro, M.; Sousa, M. C.; Santos, F.; Dias, J. M.; Gómez-Gesteira, M.

    2016-01-01

    Somali upwelling system, the fifth in the world, presents some unique features compared with the other major upwelling systems: 1) it is a Western Boundary Upwelling System located near the Equator and 2) upwelling affects the moisture responsible for monsoon rainfall. The intensity of Somali coastal upwelling during summer was projected for the twenty first century by means of an ensemble of Global Climate Models and Regional Climate Models within the framework of CMIP5 and CORDEX projects, respectively. Regardless global or regional circulation models and the chosen greenhouse warming scenario, the strengthening of Somali coastal upwelling, which increases with latitude, is even higher than observed for the Eastern Boundary Upwelling System. In addition, coastal upwelling strengthening is mainly due to Ekman transport since Ekman pumping shows no clear trend for most of the latitudes. Projected land-sea air temperature and pressure show a clear intensification of land-sea thermal and pressure gradient as a consequence of the global warming, which is likely to affect the strengthening of Somali upwelling verifying the hypothesis of Bakun. As a consequence, projected sea surface temperature warming is less intense nearshore than at oceanic locations, especially at latitudes where upwelling strengthening is more intense. PMID:27440455

  19. Viewing the Future of University Research Libraries through the Perspectives of Scenarios

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cawthorne, Jon Edward

    2013-01-01

    This research highlights the scenarios that might serve as a strategic vision to describe a future beyond the current library, one which both guides provosts and creates a map for the transformation of human resources and technology in the university research libraries. The scenarios offer managerial leaders an opportunity to envision new roles…

  20. Emissions from international shipping: 2. Impact of future technologies on scenarios until 2050

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eyring, V.; KöHler, H. W.; Lauer, A.; Lemper, B.

    2005-09-01

    In this study the today's fleet-average emission factors of the most important ship exhausts are used to calculate emission scenarios for the future. To develop plausible future technology scenarios, first upcoming regulations and compliance with future regulations through technological improvements are discussed. We present geographically resolved emission inventory scenarios until 2050, based on a mid-term prognosis for 2020 and a long-term prognosis for 2050. The scenarios are based on some very strict assumptions on future ship traffic demands and technological improvements. The four future ship traffic demand scenarios are mainly determined by the economic growth, which follows the IPCC SRES storylines. The resulting fuel consumption is projected through extrapolations of historical trends in economic growth, total seaborne trade and number of ships, as well as the average installed power per ship. For the future technology scenarios we assume a diesel-only fleet in 2020 resulting in fuel consumption between 382 and 409 million metric tons (Mt). For 2050 one technology scenario assumes that 25% of the fuel consumed by a diesel-only fleet can be saved by applying future alternative propulsion plants, resulting in a fuel consumption that varies between 402 and 543 Mt. The other scenario is a business-as-usual scenario for a diesel-only fleet even in 2050 and gives an estimate between 536 and 725 Mt. Dependent on how rapid technology improvements for diesel engines are introduced, possible technology reduction factors are applied to the today's fleet-average emission factors of all important species to estimate future ship emissions. Combining the four traffic demand scenarios with the four technology scenarios, our results suggest emissions between 8.8 and 25.0 Tg (NO2) in 2020, and between 3.1 to 38.8 Tg (NO2) in 2050. The development of forecast scenarios for CO2, NOx, SOx, CO, hydrocarbons, and particulate matter is driven by the requirements for global model

  1. Future Scenarios for Plant Virus Pathogens as Climate Change Progresses.

    PubMed

    Jones, R A C

    2016-01-01

    Knowledge of how climate change is likely to influence future virus disease epidemics in cultivated plants and natural vegetation is of great importance to both global food security and natural ecosystems. However, obtaining such knowledge is hampered by the complex effects of climate alterations on the behavior of diverse types of vectors and the ease by which previously unknown viruses can emerge. A review written in 2011 provided a comprehensive analysis of available data on the effects of climate change on virus disease epidemics worldwide. This review summarizes its findings and those of two earlier climate change reviews and focuses on describing research published on the subject since 2011. It describes the likely effects of the full range of direct and indirect climate change parameters on hosts, viruses and vectors, virus control prospects, and the many information gaps and deficiencies. Recently, there has been encouraging progress in understanding the likely effects of some climate change parameters, especially over the effects of elevated CO2, temperature, and rainfall-related parameters, upon a small number of important plant viruses and several key insect vectors, especially aphids. However, much more research needs to be done to prepare for an era of (i) increasingly severe virus epidemics and (ii) increasing difficulties in controlling them, so as to mitigate their detrimental effects on future global food security and plant biodiversity.

  2. Future Scenarios for Plant Virus Pathogens as Climate Change Progresses.

    PubMed

    Jones, R A C

    2016-01-01

    Knowledge of how climate change is likely to influence future virus disease epidemics in cultivated plants and natural vegetation is of great importance to both global food security and natural ecosystems. However, obtaining such knowledge is hampered by the complex effects of climate alterations on the behavior of diverse types of vectors and the ease by which previously unknown viruses can emerge. A review written in 2011 provided a comprehensive analysis of available data on the effects of climate change on virus disease epidemics worldwide. This review summarizes its findings and those of two earlier climate change reviews and focuses on describing research published on the subject since 2011. It describes the likely effects of the full range of direct and indirect climate change parameters on hosts, viruses and vectors, virus control prospects, and the many information gaps and deficiencies. Recently, there has been encouraging progress in understanding the likely effects of some climate change parameters, especially over the effects of elevated CO2, temperature, and rainfall-related parameters, upon a small number of important plant viruses and several key insect vectors, especially aphids. However, much more research needs to be done to prepare for an era of (i) increasingly severe virus epidemics and (ii) increasing difficulties in controlling them, so as to mitigate their detrimental effects on future global food security and plant biodiversity. PMID:27112281

  3. Development and Application of Future Climate Scenarios for Natural Resource Management in Southwestern Colorado

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rangwala, I.; Rondeau, R.; Wyborn, C.; Clifford, K. R.; Travis, W.

    2015-12-01

    Locally relevant projections of climate change provide critical insights for natural resource managers seeking to adapt their management activities to climate change in the context of uncertainty. To provide such information, we developed climate scenarios, in form of narratives and quantitative information, of future climate change and its impacts in southwestern Colorado. This information was intended to provide detailed insights into the range of changes that natural resource managers may face in the future. The scenarios were developed in an iterative process through interactions among the ecologists, social and climate scientists. In our scenario development process, climate uncertainty is acknowledged by having multiple scenarios, where each scenario is regarded as a storyline with equal likelihood as another scenario. We quantified changes in several decision relevant climate and ecological responses based on our best available understanding and provided a tight storyline for each scenario to facilitate (a) a more augmented use of scientific information in a decision-making process, (b) differential responses from stakeholders across the different scenarios, and (c) identification of strategies that could work across these multiple scenarios. Here, we discuss the process of selecting the scenarios, quantifying climate and ecological responses, and the criteria for building the narrative for each scenario. We also discuss the process by which these scenarios get used, and provide an assessment of their effectiveness and users' feedbacks that could inform the future development of these tools and processes. This research involvement and collaboration occurred, in part, as a result of the PACE Fellowship Program that is associated with NOAA Climate Program Office and the U.S. CLIVAR community.

  4. Future Forest Cover Change Scenarios with Implications for Landslide Risk: An Example from Buzau Subcarpathians, Romania

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Malek, Žiga; Boerboom, Luc; Glade, Thomas

    2015-11-01

    This study focuses on future forest cover change in Buzau Subcarpathians, a landslide prone region in Romania. Past and current trends suggest that the area might expect a future increase in deforestation. We developed spatially explicit scenarios until 2040 to analyze the spatial pattern of future forest cover change and potential changes to landslide risk. First, we generated transition probability maps using the weights of evidence method, followed by a cellular automata allocation model. We performed expert interviews, to develop two future forest management scenarios. The Alternative scenario (ALT) was defined by 67 % more deforestation than the Business as Usual scenario (BAU). We integrated the simulated scenarios with a landslide susceptibility map. In both scenarios, most of deforestation was projected in areas where landslides are less likely to occur. Still, 483 (ALT) and 276 (BAU) ha of deforestation were projected on areas with a high-landslide occurrence likelihood. Thus, deforestation could lead to a local-scale increase in landslide risk, in particular near or adjacent to forestry roads. The parallel process of near 10 % forest expansion until 2040 was projected to occur mostly on areas with high-landslide susceptibility. On a regional scale, forest expansion could so result in improved slope stability. We modeled two additional scenarios with an implemented landslide risk policy, excluding high-risk zones. The reduction of deforestation on high-risk areas was achieved without a drastic decrease in the accessibility of the areas. Together with forest expansion, it could therefore be used as a risk reduction strategy.

  5. Future Forest Cover Change Scenarios with Implications for Landslide Risk: An Example from Buzau Subcarpathians, Romania.

    PubMed

    Malek, Žiga; Boerboom, Luc; Glade, Thomas

    2015-11-01

    This study focuses on future forest cover change in Buzau Subcarpathians, a landslide prone region in Romania. Past and current trends suggest that the area might expect a future increase in deforestation. We developed spatially explicit scenarios until 2040 to analyze the spatial pattern of future forest cover change and potential changes to landslide risk. First, we generated transition probability maps using the weights of evidence method, followed by a cellular automata allocation model. We performed expert interviews, to develop two future forest management scenarios. The Alternative scenario (ALT) was defined by 67% more deforestation than the Business as Usual scenario (BAU). We integrated the simulated scenarios with a landslide susceptibility map. In both scenarios, most of deforestation was projected in areas where landslides are less likely to occur. Still, 483 (ALT) and 276 (BAU) ha of deforestation were projected on areas with a high-landslide occurrence likelihood. Thus, deforestation could lead to a local-scale increase in landslide risk, in particular near or adjacent to forestry roads. The parallel process of near 10% forest expansion until 2040 was projected to occur mostly on areas with high-landslide susceptibility. On a regional scale, forest expansion could so result in improved slope stability. We modeled two additional scenarios with an implemented landslide risk policy, excluding high-risk zones. The reduction of deforestation on high-risk areas was achieved without a drastic decrease in the accessibility of the areas. Together with forest expansion, it could therefore be used as a risk reduction strategy.

  6. Future antibiotics scenarios: is the tide starting to turn?

    PubMed

    Theuretzbacher, Ursula

    2009-07-01

    The fight against multidrug-resistant (MDR) pathogens continues. This article discusses the gap between the need for new antibiotics and lean research and development (R&D) pipelines. Many large pharmaceutical companies have terminated their antibacterial research programmes as they focus on potentially more lucrative therapeutic areas. At the same time, an increasingly dry funding situation hampers smaller start-up companies. Antibacterial innovation proceeds in waves. Following a wave of broad-spectrum antibiotics in the 1980s and 1990s, many companies focused on the development of small-spectrum antibiotics targeted at Gram-positive bacteria. In recent years, MDR Gram-negative bacteria have emerged and spread rapidly. The resulting intensified need for new therapeutic options against Gram-negative bacteria appears to promise financially rewarding return on investment for pharmaceutical companies within this small market niche. Thus, interest in antibiotics, particularly in drugs effective against MDR Gram-negative bacteria, is back. We appear to be at the start of a new wave of antibacterial drug R&D that will hopefully yield new therapeutic options in the future (10-15 years). Until then, the problem of MDR Gram-negative bacteria must continue to be addressed with a multifaceted set of solutions based on currently available tools.

  7. The implications of future building scenarios for long-term building energy research and development

    SciTech Connect

    Flynn, W.T.

    1986-12-01

    This report presents a discussion of alternative future scenarios of the building environment to the year 2010 and assesses the implications these scenarios present for long-term building energy R and D. The scenarios and energy R and D implications derived from them are intended to serve as the basis from which a strategic plan can be developed for the management of R and D programs conducted by the Office of Buildings and Community Systems, US Department of Energy. The scenarios and analysis presented here have relevance not only for government R and D programs; on the contrary, it is hoped that the results of this effort will be of interest and useful to researchers in both private and public sector organizations that deal with building energy R and D. Making R and D decisions today based on an analysis that attempts to delineate the nexus of events 25 years in the future are clearly decisions made in the face of uncertainty. Yet, the effective management of R and D programs requires a future-directed understanding of markets, technological developments, and environmental factors, as well as their interactions. The analysis presented in this report is designed to serve that need. Although the probability of any particular scenario actually occurring is uncertain, the scenarios to be presented are sufficiently robust to set bounds within which to examine the interaction of forces that will shape the future building environment.

  8. Downscaling GCM Output with Genetic Programming Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shi, X.; Dibike, Y. B.; Coulibaly, P.

    2004-05-01

    Climate change impact studies on watershed hydrology require reliable data at appropriate spatial and temporal resolution. However, the outputs of the current global climate models (GCMs) cannot be used directly because GCM do not provide hourly or daily precipitation and temperature reliable enough for hydrological modeling. Nevertheless, we can get more reliable data corresponding to future climate scenarios derived from GCM outputs using the so called 'downscaling techniques'. This study applies Genetic Programming (GP) based technique to downscale daily precipitation and temperature values at the Chute-du-Diable basin of the Saguenay watershed in Canada. In applying GP downscaling technique, the objective is to find a relationship between the large-scale predictor variables (NCEP data which provide daily information concerning the observed large-scale state of the atmosphere) and the predictand (meteorological data which describes conditions at the site scale). The selection of the most relevant predictor variables is achieved using the Pearson's coefficient of determination ( R2) (between the large-scale predictor variables and the daily meteorological data). In this case, the period (1961 - 2000) is identified to represent the current climate condition. For the forty years of data, the first 30 years (1961-1990) are considered for calibrating the models while the remaining ten years of data (1991-2000) are used to validate those models. In general, the R2 between the predictor variables and each predictand is very low in case of precipitation compared to that of maximum and minimum temperature. Moreover, the strength of individual predictors varies for every month and for each GP grammar. Therefore, the most appropriate combination of predictors has to be chosen by looking at the output analysis of all the twelve months and the different GP grammars. During the calibration of the GP model for precipitation downscaling, in addition to the mean daily

  9. Assessment of Folsom Lake response to historical and potential future climate scenarios

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Yao, Huaming; Georgakakos, Aris P.

    2000-01-01

    An integrated forecast-decision system for Folsom Lake (California) is developed and used to assess the sensitivity of reservoir performance to various forecast-management schemes under historical and future climate scenarios. The assessments are based on various combinations of inflow forecasting models, decision rules, and climate scenarios and demonstrate that (1) reliable inflow forecasts and adaptive decision systems can substantially benefit reservoir performance and (2) dynamic operational procedures represent effective climate change coping strategies.

  10. Future Water-Supply Scenarios, Cape May County, New Jersey, 2003-2050

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lacombe, Pierre J.; Carleton, Glen B.; Pope, Daryll A.; Rice, Donald E.

    2009-01-01

    Stewards of the water supply in New Jersey are interested in developing a plan to supply potable and non-potable water to residents and businesses of Cape May County until at least 2050. The ideal plan would meet projected demands and minimize adverse effects on currently used sources of potable, non-potable, and ecological water supplies. This report documents past and projected potable, non-potable, and ecological water-supply demands. Past and ongoing adverse effects to production and domestic wells caused by withdrawals include saltwater intrusion and water-level declines in the freshwater aquifers. Adverse effects on the ecological water supplies caused by groundwater withdrawals include premature drying of seasonal wetlands, delayed recovery of water levels in the water-table aquifer, and reduced streamflow. To predict the effects of future actions on the water supplies, three baseline and six future scenarios were created and simulated. Baseline Scenarios 1, 2, and 3 represent withdrawals using existing wells projected until 2050. Baseline Scenario 1 represents average 1998-2003 withdrawals, and Scenario 2 represents New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection (NJDEP) full allocation withdrawals. These withdrawals do not meet projected future water demands. Baseline Scenario 3 represents the estimated full build-out water demands. Results of simulations of the three baseline scenarios indicate that saltwater would intrude into the Cohansey aquifer as much as 7,100 feet (ft) to adversely affect production wells used by Lower Township and the Wildwoods, as well as some other near-shore domestic wells; water-level altitudes in the Atlantic City 800-foot sand would decline to -156 ft; base flow in streams would be depleted by 0 to 26 percent; and water levels in the water-table aquifer would decline as much as 0.7ft. [Specific water-level altitudes, land-surface altitudes, and present sea level when used in this report are referenced to the North American

  11. Analysis of Future Streamflow Regimes under Global Change Scenarios in Central Chile for Ecosystem Sustainability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Henriquez Dole, L. E.; Gironas, J. A.; Vicuna, S.

    2015-12-01

    Given the critical role of the streamflow regime for ecosystem sustainability, modeling long term effects of climate change and land use change on streamflow is important to predict possible impacts in stream ecosystems. Because flow duration curves are largely used to characterize the streamflow regime and define indices of ecosystem health, they were used to represent and analyze in this study the stream regime in the Maipo River Basin in Central Chile. Water and Environmental Assessment and Planning (WEAP) model and the Plant Growth Model (PGM) were used to simulate water distribution, consumption in rural areas and stream flows on a weekly basis. Historical data (1990-2014), future land use scenarios (2030/2050) and climate change scenarios were included in the process. Historical data show a declining trend in flows mainly by unprecedented climatic conditions, increasing interest among users on future streamflow scenarios. In the future, under an expected decline in water availability coupled with changes in crop water demand, water users will be forced to adapt by changing water allocation rules. Such adaptation actions would in turns affect the streamflow regime. Future scenarios for streamflow regime show dramatic changes in water availability and temporal distribution. Annual weekly mean flows can reduce in 19% in the worst scenario and increase in 3.3% in the best of them, and variability in streamflow increases nearly 90% in all scenarios under evaluation. The occurrence of maximum and minimum monthly flows changes, as June instead of July becomes the driest month, and December instead of January becomes the month with maximum flows. Overall, results show that under future scenarios streamflow is affected and altered by water allocation rules to satisfy water demands, and thus decisions will need to consider the streamflow regime (and habitat) in order to be sustainable.

  12. Scenario development as a basis for formulating a research program on future agriculture: a methodological approach.

    PubMed

    Oborn, Ingrid; Bengtsson, Jan; Hedenus, Fredrik; Rydhmer, Lotta; Stenström, Maria; Vrede, Katarina; Westin, Charles; Magnusson, Ulf

    2013-11-01

    To increase the awareness of society to the challenges of global food security, we developed five contrasting global and European scenarios for 2050 and used these to identify important issues for future agricultural research. Using a scenario development method known as morphological analysis, scenarios were constructed that took economic, political, technical, and environmental factors into account. With the scenarios as a starting point future challenges were discussed and research issues and questions were identified in an interactive process with stakeholders and researchers. Based on the outcome of this process, six socioeconomic and biophysical overarching challenges for future agricultural were formulated and related research issues identified. The outcome was compared with research priorities generated in five other research programs. In comparison, our research questions focus more on societal values and the role of consumers in influencing agricultural production, as well as on policy formulation and resolving conflicting goals, areas that are presently under-represented in agricultural research. The partly new and more interdisciplinary research priorities identified in Future Agriculture compared to other programs analyzed are likely a result of the methodological approach used, combining scenarios and interaction between stakeholders and researchers.

  13. Future waste treatment and energy systems--examples of joint scenarios.

    PubMed

    Münster, M; Finnveden, G; Wenzel, H

    2013-11-01

    Development and use of scenarios for large interdisciplinary projects is a complicated task. This article provides practical examples of how it has been carried out in two projects addressing waste management and energy issues respectively. Based on experiences from the two projects, recommendations are made for an approach concerning development of scenarios in projects dealing with both waste management and energy issues. Recommendations are given to develop and use overall scenarios for the project and leave room for sub-scenarios in parts of the project. Combining different types of scenarios is recommended, too, in order to adapt to the methods and tools of different disciplines, such as developing predictive scenarios with general equilibrium tools and analysing explorative scenarios with energy system analysis tools. Furthermore, as marginals identified in differing future background systems determine the outcomes of consequential life cycle assessments (LCAs), it is considered advisable to develop and use explorative external scenarios based on possible marginals as a framework for consequential LCAs. This approach is illustrated using an on-going Danish research project.

  14. Long-term land use future scenarios for the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory

    SciTech Connect

    1995-08-01

    In order to facilitate decision regarding environmental restoration activities at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL), the United States Department of Energy, Idaho Operations Office (DOE-ID) conducted analyses to project reasonable future land use scenarios at the INEL for the next 100 years. The methodology for generating these scenarios included: review of existing DOE plans, policy statements, and mission statements pertaining to the INEL; review of surrounding land use characteristics and county developments policies; solicitation of input from local, county, state and federal planners, policy specialists, environmental professionals, and elected officials; and review of environmental and development constraints at the INEL site that could influence future land use.

  15. Future Forest Cover Change Scenarios with Implications for Landslide Risk: An Example from Buzau Subcarpathians, Romania.

    PubMed

    Malek, Žiga; Boerboom, Luc; Glade, Thomas

    2015-11-01

    This study focuses on future forest cover change in Buzau Subcarpathians, a landslide prone region in Romania. Past and current trends suggest that the area might expect a future increase in deforestation. We developed spatially explicit scenarios until 2040 to analyze the spatial pattern of future forest cover change and potential changes to landslide risk. First, we generated transition probability maps using the weights of evidence method, followed by a cellular automata allocation model. We performed expert interviews, to develop two future forest management scenarios. The Alternative scenario (ALT) was defined by 67% more deforestation than the Business as Usual scenario (BAU). We integrated the simulated scenarios with a landslide susceptibility map. In both scenarios, most of deforestation was projected in areas where landslides are less likely to occur. Still, 483 (ALT) and 276 (BAU) ha of deforestation were projected on areas with a high-landslide occurrence likelihood. Thus, deforestation could lead to a local-scale increase in landslide risk, in particular near or adjacent to forestry roads. The parallel process of near 10% forest expansion until 2040 was projected to occur mostly on areas with high-landslide susceptibility. On a regional scale, forest expansion could so result in improved slope stability. We modeled two additional scenarios with an implemented landslide risk policy, excluding high-risk zones. The reduction of deforestation on high-risk areas was achieved without a drastic decrease in the accessibility of the areas. Together with forest expansion, it could therefore be used as a risk reduction strategy. PMID:26122632

  16. Biodiversity consequences of alternative future land use scenarios in Greater Yellowstone.

    PubMed

    Gude, Patricia H; Hansen, Andrew J; Jones, Danielle A

    2007-06-01

    Land use is rapidly expanding in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem, primarily from growth in the number of rural homes. There is a need to project possible future land use and assess impacts on nature reserves as a guide to future management. We assessed the potential biodiversity impacts of alternative future land use scenarios in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. An existing regression-based simulation model was used to project three alternative scenarios of future rural home development. The spatial patterns of forecasted development were then compared to several biodiversity response variables that included cover types, species habitats, and biodiversity indices. We identified the four biodiversity responses most at risk of exurban development, designed growth management policies to protect these areas, and tested their effectiveness in two alternative future scenarios. We found that the measured biodiversity responses, including riparian habitat, elk winter range, migration corridors, and eight other land cover, habitat, and biodiversity indices, are likely to undergo substantial conversion (between 5% and 40%) to exurban development by 2020. Future habitat conversion to exurban development outside the region's nature reserves is likely to impact wildlife populations within the reserves. Existing growth management policies will provide minimal protection to biodiversity in this region. We identified specific growth management policies, including incentives to cluster future growth near towns, that can protect "at risk" habitat types without limiting overall growth in housing.

  17. Predicted Megafire Locations under Future Climate Scenarios in the Contiguous United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lorentz, K. A.; Drury, S.; Raffuse, S. M.; Larkin, N. K.

    2014-12-01

    Over the past several years, large high-intensity wildfires, or "megafires," have set records for the greatest burn area and most costly fires in several U.S. states. Megafires can release many tons of fine particles and other pollutants that are hazardous to human health over a short period of time. Under future climate scenarios, megafires may increase in some regions. The danger of smoke exposure from megafires in the future depends on several spatial factors, including the likelihood of megafire occurrence, emission rates, air transport patterns, and population density. We combined climatological transport modeling, smoke emission rates, and population density to determine the areas within the U.S. where a megafire would result in the greatest human exposure to smoke. Coupled with a synthesis of recent studies on the likelihood of megafire occurrence under future climate scenarios, these results provide a view of future smoke management and emergency response needs.

  18. Simulation of future stream alkalinity under changing deposition and climate scenarios.

    PubMed

    Welsch, Daniel L; Cosby, B Jack; Hornberger, George M

    2006-08-31

    Models of soil and stream water acidification have typically been applied under scenarios of changing acidic deposition, however, climate change is usually ignored. Soil air CO2 concentrations have potential to increase as climate warms and becomes wetter, thus affecting soil and stream water chemistry by initially increasing stream alkalinity at the expense of reducing base saturation levels on soil exchange sites. We simulate this change by applying a series of physically based coupled models capable of predicting soil air CO2 and stream water chemistry. We predict daily stream water alkalinity for a small catchment in the Virginia Blue Ridge for 60 years into the future given stochastically generated daily climate values. This is done for nine different combinations of climate and deposition. The scenarios for both climate and deposition include a static scenario, a scenario of gradual change, and a scenario of abrupt change. We find that stream water alkalinity continues to decline for all scenarios (average decrease of 14.4 microeq L-1) except where climate is gradually warming and becoming more moist (average increase of 13 microeq L-1). In all other scenarios, base cation removal from catchment soils is responsible for limited alkalinity increase resulting from climate change. This has implications given the extent that acidification models are used to establish policy and legislation concerning deposition and emissions.

  19. Simulation of future stream alkalinity under changing deposition and climate scenarios.

    PubMed

    Welsch, Daniel L; Cosby, B Jack; Hornberger, George M

    2006-08-31

    Models of soil and stream water acidification have typically been applied under scenarios of changing acidic deposition, however, climate change is usually ignored. Soil air CO2 concentrations have potential to increase as climate warms and becomes wetter, thus affecting soil and stream water chemistry by initially increasing stream alkalinity at the expense of reducing base saturation levels on soil exchange sites. We simulate this change by applying a series of physically based coupled models capable of predicting soil air CO2 and stream water chemistry. We predict daily stream water alkalinity for a small catchment in the Virginia Blue Ridge for 60 years into the future given stochastically generated daily climate values. This is done for nine different combinations of climate and deposition. The scenarios for both climate and deposition include a static scenario, a scenario of gradual change, and a scenario of abrupt change. We find that stream water alkalinity continues to decline for all scenarios (average decrease of 14.4 microeq L-1) except where climate is gradually warming and becoming more moist (average increase of 13 microeq L-1). In all other scenarios, base cation removal from catchment soils is responsible for limited alkalinity increase resulting from climate change. This has implications given the extent that acidification models are used to establish policy and legislation concerning deposition and emissions. PMID:16600331

  20. Development of Future Scenario Emission Inventories for East Asia in Support of Multiple Modeling Studies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, Y.; Woo, J. H.; Choi, K. C.; Lee, J. B.; Song, C. K.; Kim, S. K.; Hong, J.; Hong, S. C.; Zhang, Q.; Hong, C.; Tong, D.

    2015-12-01

    Future emission scenarios based on up-to-date regional socio-economic and control policy information were developed in support of climate-air quality integrated modeling research over East Asia. Two IPCC-participated Integrated Assessment Models(IAMs) were used to developed those scenario pathways. The two emission processing systems, KU-EPS and SMOKE-Asia, were used to convert these future scenario emissions to comprehensive chemical transport model-ready form. The NIER/KU-CREATE (Comprehensive Regional Emissions inventory for Atmospheric Transport Experiment) served as the regional base-year emission inventory. For anthropogenic emissions, it has 54 fuel classes, 201 sub-sectors and 13 pollutants, including CO2, CH4, N2O, SO2, NOx, CO, NMVOC, NH3, OC, BC, PM10, PM2.5, and mercury. Fast energy growth and aggressive penetration of the control measures make emissions projection very active for East Asia. Despite of more stringent air pollution control policies by the governments, however, air quality over the region seems not been improved as much - even worse in many cases. The needs of more scientific understanding of inter-relationship among emissions, transport, chemistry over the region are very high to effectively protect public health and ecosystems against ozone, fine particles, and other toxic pollutants in the air. After developing these long-term future emissions, therefore, we also tried to apply our future scenarios to develop the present emissions inventory for chemical weather forecasting and aircraft field campaign. On site, we will present; 1) the future scenario development framework and process methodologies, 2) initial development results of the future emission pathways, 3) present emission inventories from short-term projection, and 4) air quality modeling performance improvements over the region.

  1. Use of Future Scenarios as a Pedagogical Approach for Science Teacher Education

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Paige, Kathryn; Lloyd, David

    2016-04-01

    Futures studies is usually a transdisciplinary study and as such embraces the physical world of the sciences and system sciences and the subjective world of individuals and cultures, as well as the time dimension—past, present and futures. Science education, where student interests, opportunities and challenges often manifest themselves, can provide a suitable entry point for futures work. In this paper, we describe how we have used futures themes, concepts and techniques both implicitly and explicitly in our undergraduate middle school teacher education courses and, in particular, science curriculum and general studies courses. Taking a critical orientation to the past and the present in these courses enables the future to be more than a mere reproduction of the status quo and opens up a range of possible futures in the areas of current interest. For example, having studied middle school teaching and learning in mathematics and science, students explore the past, present and possible future of a natural part of a university campus. In a general studies course on the science of the Earth's atmosphere, students construct a normative futures scenario on living in a changing climate. One way to gain insight into an uncertain future is to construct scenarios. This technique has been used since the 1970s to bring issues of environment and development—areas with strong science content—to the attention of both scientists and policymakers.

  2. HYDROLOGIC MODEL UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH SIMULATING FUTURE LAND-COVER/USE SCENARIOS: A RETROSPECTIVE ANALYSIS

    EPA Science Inventory

    GIS-based hydrologic modeling offers a convenient means of assessing the impacts associated with land-cover/use change for environmental planning efforts. Alternative future scenarios can be used as input to hydrologic models and compared with existing conditions to evaluate pot...

  3. Lessons From the Future: ICT Scenarios and the Education of Teachers

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Williams, Peter

    2005-01-01

    This paper reviews significant events of the last 25 years in schools and teacher education in England and looks ahead to the next 25 years. Various scenarios for the future are examined and the potential is considered for new forms of teachers' initial education and continuing professional development using information and communications…

  4. Multi-path transportation futures study : vehicle characterization and scenario analyses.

    SciTech Connect

    Plotkin, S. E.; Singh, M. K.; Energy Systems; TA Engineering; ORNL

    2009-12-03

    Projecting the future role of advanced drivetrains and fuels in the light vehicle market is inherently difficult, given the uncertainty (and likely volatility) of future oil prices, inadequate understanding of likely consumer response to new technologies, the relative infancy of several important new technologies with inevitable future changes in their performance and costs, and the importance - and uncertainty - of future government marketplace interventions (e.g., new regulatory standards or vehicle purchase incentives). This Multi-Path Transportation Futures (MP) Study has attempted to improve our understanding of this future role by examining several scenarios of vehicle costs, fuel prices, government subsidies, and other key factors. These are projections, not forecasts, in that they try to answer a series of 'what if' questions without assigning probabilities to most of the basic assumptions.

  5. Future changes in precipitation of the baiu season under RCP scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Okada, Y.; Takemi, T.; Ishikawa, H.

    2014-12-01

    Recently, the relationship between global warming and rainfall during the rainy season, which called the baiu in Japan, has been attracting attention in association with heavy rainfall in this period. In the Innovative Program of Climate Change Projection for the 21st Century, many studies show a delay in the northward march of the baiu front, and significant increase of daily precipitation amounts around western Japan during the late baiu season (e.g., Kusunoki et al. 2011, Kanada et al. 2012). The future climate experiment in these studies was performed under the IPCC SRES A1B scenarios for global warming conditions. In this study, we discuss the future changes in precipitation using calculated 60km-mesh model (MRI-AGCM3.2H) under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios. Support of this dataset is provided by the Meteorological Research Institute (MRI). These dataset are calculated by setting the Yoshimura (YS) scheme mainly.Seasonal progression of future precipitation generally indicates the northward in RCP2.6 and 4.5 scenarios, around western Japan. In RCP6.0 scenario, precipitation intensity is weak compared to the other scenarios. RCP8.5 scenario is calculated by setting three different cumulus schemes (YS, Arakawa-Schubert (AS), and Kain-Fritsch (KF) schemes). RCP8.5 configured in YS scheme showed that the rainband associated with the baiu front is not clear. Moreover, peak is remarkable during late June. In AS scheme, the precipitation area stagnates around 30 N until August. And it in KF scheme shows gradual northward migration.This work was conducted under the Program for Risk Information on Climate Change supported by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science, and Technology-Japan (MEXT).

  6. Future reef decalcification under a business-as-usual CO2 emission scenario

    PubMed Central

    Dove, Sophie G.; Kline, David I.; Pantos, Olga; Angly, Florent E.; Tyson, Gene W.; Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove

    2013-01-01

    Increasing atmospheric partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2) is a major threat to coral reefs, but some argue that the threat is mitigated by factors such as the variability in the response of coral calcification to acidification, differences in bleaching susceptibility, and the potential for rapid adaptation to anthropogenic warming. However the evidence for these mitigating factors tends to involve experimental studies on corals, as opposed to coral reefs, and rarely includes the influence of multiple variables (e.g., temperature and acidification) within regimes that include diurnal and seasonal variability. Here, we demonstrate that the inclusion of all these factors results in the decalcification of patch-reefs under business-as-usual scenarios and reduced, although positive, calcification under reduced-emission scenarios. Primary productivity was found to remain constant across all scenarios, despite significant bleaching and coral mortality under both future scenarios. Daylight calcification decreased and nocturnal decalcification increased sharply from the preindustrial and control conditions to the future scenarios of low (reduced emissions) and high (business-as-usual) increases in pCO2. These changes coincided with deeply negative carbonate budgets, a shift toward smaller carbonate sediments, and an increase in the abundance of sediment microbes under the business-as-usual emission scenario. Experimental coral reefs demonstrated highest net calcification rates and lowest rates of coral mortality under preindustrial conditions, suggesting that reef processes may not have been able to keep pace with the relatively minor environmental changes that have occurred during the last century. Taken together, our results have serious implications for the future of coral reefs under business-as-usual environmental changes projected for the coming decades and century. PMID:24003127

  7. Future reef decalcification under a business-as-usual CO2 emission scenario.

    PubMed

    Dove, Sophie G; Kline, David I; Pantos, Olga; Angly, Florent E; Tyson, Gene W; Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove

    2013-09-17

    Increasing atmospheric partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2) is a major threat to coral reefs, but some argue that the threat is mitigated by factors such as the variability in the response of coral calcification to acidification, differences in bleaching susceptibility, and the potential for rapid adaptation to anthropogenic warming. However the evidence for these mitigating factors tends to involve experimental studies on corals, as opposed to coral reefs, and rarely includes the influence of multiple variables (e.g., temperature and acidification) within regimes that include diurnal and seasonal variability. Here, we demonstrate that the inclusion of all these factors results in the decalcification of patch-reefs under business-as-usual scenarios and reduced, although positive, calcification under reduced-emission scenarios. Primary productivity was found to remain constant across all scenarios, despite significant bleaching and coral mortality under both future scenarios. Daylight calcification decreased and nocturnal decalcification increased sharply from the preindustrial and control conditions to the future scenarios of low (reduced emissions) and high (business-as-usual) increases in pCO2. These changes coincided with deeply negative carbonate budgets, a shift toward smaller carbonate sediments, and an increase in the abundance of sediment microbes under the business-as-usual emission scenario. Experimental coral reefs demonstrated highest net calcification rates and lowest rates of coral mortality under preindustrial conditions, suggesting that reef processes may not have been able to keep pace with the relatively minor environmental changes that have occurred during the last century. Taken together, our results have serious implications for the future of coral reefs under business-as-usual environmental changes projected for the coming decades and century.

  8. Future reef decalcification under a business-as-usual CO2 emission scenario.

    PubMed

    Dove, Sophie G; Kline, David I; Pantos, Olga; Angly, Florent E; Tyson, Gene W; Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove

    2013-09-17

    Increasing atmospheric partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2) is a major threat to coral reefs, but some argue that the threat is mitigated by factors such as the variability in the response of coral calcification to acidification, differences in bleaching susceptibility, and the potential for rapid adaptation to anthropogenic warming. However the evidence for these mitigating factors tends to involve experimental studies on corals, as opposed to coral reefs, and rarely includes the influence of multiple variables (e.g., temperature and acidification) within regimes that include diurnal and seasonal variability. Here, we demonstrate that the inclusion of all these factors results in the decalcification of patch-reefs under business-as-usual scenarios and reduced, although positive, calcification under reduced-emission scenarios. Primary productivity was found to remain constant across all scenarios, despite significant bleaching and coral mortality under both future scenarios. Daylight calcification decreased and nocturnal decalcification increased sharply from the preindustrial and control conditions to the future scenarios of low (reduced emissions) and high (business-as-usual) increases in pCO2. These changes coincided with deeply negative carbonate budgets, a shift toward smaller carbonate sediments, and an increase in the abundance of sediment microbes under the business-as-usual emission scenario. Experimental coral reefs demonstrated highest net calcification rates and lowest rates of coral mortality under preindustrial conditions, suggesting that reef processes may not have been able to keep pace with the relatively minor environmental changes that have occurred during the last century. Taken together, our results have serious implications for the future of coral reefs under business-as-usual environmental changes projected for the coming decades and century. PMID:24003127

  9. Robust Performance of Marginal Pacific Coral Reef Habitats in Future Climate Scenarios.

    PubMed

    Freeman, Lauren A

    2015-01-01

    Coral reef ecosystems are under dual threat from climate change. Increasing sea surface temperatures and thermal stress create environmental limits at low latitudes, and decreasing aragonite saturation state creates environmental limits at high latitudes. This study examines the response of unique coral reef habitats to climate change in the remote Pacific, using the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Earth System Model version 1 alongside the species distribution algorithm Maxent. Narrow ranges of physico-chemical variables are used to define unique coral habitats and their performance is tested in future climate scenarios. General loss of coral reef habitat is expected in future climate scenarios and has been shown in previous studies. This study found exactly that for most of the predominant physico-chemical environments. However, certain coral reef habitats considered marginal today at high latitude, along the equator and in the eastern tropical Pacific were found to be quite robust in climate change scenarios. Furthermore, an environmental coral reef refuge previously identified in the central south Pacific near French Polynesia was further reinforced. Studying the response of specific habitats showed that the prevailing conditions of this refuge during the 20th century shift to a new set of conditions, more characteristic of higher latitude coral reefs in the 20th century, in future climate scenarios projected to 2100.

  10. Robust Performance of Marginal Pacific Coral Reef Habitats in Future Climate Scenarios

    PubMed Central

    Freeman, Lauren A.

    2015-01-01

    Coral reef ecosystems are under dual threat from climate change. Increasing sea surface temperatures and thermal stress create environmental limits at low latitudes, and decreasing aragonite saturation state creates environmental limits at high latitudes. This study examines the response of unique coral reef habitats to climate change in the remote Pacific, using the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Earth System Model version 1 alongside the species distribution algorithm Maxent. Narrow ranges of physico-chemical variables are used to define unique coral habitats and their performance is tested in future climate scenarios. General loss of coral reef habitat is expected in future climate scenarios and has been shown in previous studies. This study found exactly that for most of the predominant physico-chemical environments. However, certain coral reef habitats considered marginal today at high latitude, along the equator and in the eastern tropical Pacific were found to be quite robust in climate change scenarios. Furthermore, an environmental coral reef refuge previously identified in the central south Pacific near French Polynesia was further reinforced. Studying the response of specific habitats showed that the prevailing conditions of this refuge during the 20th century shift to a new set of conditions, more characteristic of higher latitude coral reefs in the 20th century, in future climate scenarios projected to 2100. PMID:26053439

  11. Future drought scenarios for the Greater Alpine Region based on dynamical downscaling experiments.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Haslinger, Klaus; Anders, Ivonne; Schöner, Wolfgang

    2014-05-01

    Large scale droughts have major ecologic, agricultural, economic as well as societal impacts by reducing crop yield, producing low flows in river systems or by limiting the public water supply. Under the perspective of rising temperatures and possibly altered precipitation regimes in the upcoming decades due to global climate change, we accomplish an assessment of future drought characteristics for the Greater Alpine Region (GAR) with regional climate model simulations. This study consists of two parts: First, the ability of the Regional Climate Model COSMO-CLM (CCLM) to simulate drought conditions in the past in space and time is evaluated. Second, an analysis of future drought scenarios for the GAR is conducted. As a drought index the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) is used. For the evaluation of the Regional Climate Model in the past, simulations driven by ERA-40 are compared to observations. The gridded observational datasets of the HISTALP-database are used for evaluation in the first place. To assess the skill of CCLM, correlation coefficients between the SPEI of model simulations and gridded observations stratified by seasons and time scales are accomplished. For the analysis of future changes in the drought characteristics, four scenario runs are investigated. These are ECHAM5 and HadCM3 driven CCLM runs for the SRES scenarios A1B, A2 and B1. The SPEI is calculated spanning both the C20 and the scenario runs and are therefore regarded as transient simulations. Generally, trends to dryer annual mean conditions are apparent in each of the scenario runs, whereas the signal is rather strong in summer, contradicted by winter which shows a slight increase in precipitation north of the Alps. This in turn leads to higher variability of the SPEI in the future, as differences between winter (wetter or no change) and summer (considerably dryer) grow larger.

  12. Developing scenarios to assess future landslide risks: a model-based approach applied to mountainous regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vacquie, Laure; Houet, Thomas

    2016-04-01

    In the last century, European mountain landscapes have experienced significant transformations. Natural and anthropogenic changes, climate changes, touristic and industrial development, socio-economic interactions, and their implications in terms of LUCC (land use and land cover changes) have directly influenced the spatial organization and vulnerability of mountain landscapes. This study is conducted as part of the SAMCO project founded by the French National Science Agency (ANR). It aims at developing a methodological approach, combining various tools, modelling platforms and methods, to identify vulnerable regions to landslide hazards accounting for futures LUCC. It presents an integrated approach combining participative scenarios and a LULC changes simulation models to assess the combined effects of LUCC and climate change on landslide risks in the Cauterets valley (French Pyrenees Mountains) up to 2100. Through vulnerability and risk mapping, the objective is to gather information to support landscape planning and implement land use strategies with local stakeholders for risk management. Four contrasting scenarios are developed and exhibit contrasting trajectories of socio-economic development. Prospective scenarios are based on national and international socio-economic contexts relying on existing assessment reports. The methodological approach integrates knowledge from local stakeholders to refine each scenario during their construction and to reinforce their plausibility and relevance by accounting for local specificities, e.g. logging and pastoral activities, touristic development, urban planning, etc. A process-based model, the Forecasting Scenarios for Mountains (ForeSceM) model, developed on the Dinamica Ego modelling platform is used to spatially allocate futures LUCC for each prospective scenario. Concurrently, a spatial decision support tool, i.e. the SYLVACCESS model, is used to identify accessible areas for forestry in scenario projecting logging

  13. Analysis of Future High Temperature Region in Urban Area under Climate Change Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Park, C.; Jeong, W.; Sung, S.; Park, J.

    2015-12-01

    Urban air temperature is higher than surrounding air temperature. It is called Urban Heat Island. Furthermore, according to climate change, Urban air temperature is expected to be increased in the future. Therefore, Preparing for high temperature event result from climate change is important as well as preparing for presence of the urban heat. In this study, we analyzed Seoul temperature change according to the climate change scenarios, and suggested some strategies to fight against climate change and urban heat island. For doing this, Firstly, Seoul was divided into 1km² cells which matches the climate change scenario resolution. Then, future temperature distribution was analyzed. In this time, future temperature means distribution means the average temperature in August 2010~2100 from Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. Secondly, Cells where temperature is over 33℃ are selected as the "high temperature region (HTR)". For identifying HTUR characteristics, we did regression analysis with terrain, land cover, distance from rivers and mountains variables. As a result, most of the HTR was distributed to the industrial and business districts, and appeared as far away from the rivers and mountains. These result can be used in the further urban heat island studies, especially identifying urban type which vulnerable to climate change. Also, it can be helpful in establishing strategies corresponding to the future climate.

  14. Development of future rainfall scenario under climate change for Korean Peninsula

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, Dongkyun; Park, Hyunjin; Rao, Suresh; Park, Jeryang

    2016-04-01

    We propose a method for generating future hourly rainfall scenario considering climate change. The method has the following sequence: (1) rainfall statistics that are known to have hydrologic significance (mean, variance, covariance, and probability of dryness) of a given calendar month are generated based on the statistical information obtained from observed rainfall; (2) the generated rainfall statistics is corrected for the future period using the correction factor obtained by analyzing the HadGEM2-ES global circulation model output; (3) the hourly rainfall time series is generated using the Modified Bartlett-Lewis Rectangular Pulse (MBLRP) model based on the rainfall statistics obtained in Step 2; (4) Step 1 through Step 3 are repeated for all 12 calendar months to generate the hourly rainfall scenario of a given future year. The methodology was applied for the 28 rainfall observation locations and for the future period of 2019 - 2093 in Korean Peninsula. The suggested approach was validated for the validation period during which both observed and the rainfall scenario exists (1984-2004). The result of the validation indicates that (1) the approach of this study accurately reproduce the mean, variance, covariance, and the probability of dryness of the observed rainfall between hourly and daily scale; (2) the approach of this study has the improved fitting of the design rainfall (underestimation by 11% - 23% depending on the recurrence interval) compared to the traditional approach of Poisson cluster rainfall modeling (underestimation by 20% - 40%). The design rainfall of the synthetically generated rainfall of the future period was corrected by the degree of the underestimation obtained from the validation period. According to the analysis, the design hourly and daily rainfall with the recurrence interval between 10 year and 200 year will increase by ~24% and ~14%, respectively, by the year 2089 under the RCP scenario of 4.5.

  15. The Next 25 Years?: Future Scenarios and Future Directions for Education and Technology

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Facer, K.; Sandford, R.

    2010-01-01

    The educational technology research field has been at the heart of debates about the future of education for the last quarter century. This paper explores the socio-technical developments that the next 25 years might bring and the implications of such developments for educators and for educational technology research. The paper begins by outlining…

  16. Conjunctive management of surface and groundwater resources under projected future climate change scenarios

    DOE PAGES

    Mani, Amir; Tsai, Frank T. -C.; Kao, Shih-Chieh; Naz, Bibi S.; Ashfaq, Moetasim; Rastogi, Deeksha

    2016-06-16

    Our study introduces a mixed integer linear fractional programming (MILFP) method to optimize conjunctive use of future surface water and groundwater resources under projected climate change scenarios. The conjunctive management model maximizes the ratio of groundwater usage to reservoir water usage. Future inflows to the reservoirs were estimated from the future runoffs projected through hydroclimate modeling considering the Variable Infiltration Capacity model, and 11 sets of downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 global climate model projections. Bayesian model averaging was adopted to quantify uncertainty in future runoff projections and reservoir inflow projections due to uncertain future climate projections. Optimizedmore » conjunctive management solutions were investigated for a water supply network in northern Louisiana which includes the Sparta aquifer. Runoff projections under climate change scenarios indicate that runoff will likely decrease in winter and increase in other seasons. Ultimately, results from the developed conjunctive management model with MILFP indicate that the future reservoir water, even at 2.5% low inflow cumulative probability level, could counterbalance groundwater pumping reduction to satisfy demands while improving the Sparta aquifer through conditional groundwater head constraint.« less

  17. Development of flood regressions and climate change scenarios to explore estimates of future peak flows

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Burns, Douglas A.; Smith, Martyn J.; Freehafer, Douglas A.

    2015-12-31

    The application uses predictions of future annual precipitation from five climate models and two future greenhouse gas emissions scenarios and provides results that are averaged over three future periods—2025 to 2049, 2050 to 2074, and 2075 to 2099. Results are presented in ensemble form as the mean, median, maximum, and minimum values among the five climate models for each greenhouse gas emissions scenario and period. These predictions of future annual precipitation are substituted into either the precipitation variable or a water balance equation for runoff to calculate potential future peak flows. This application is intended to be used only as an exploratory tool because (1) the regression equations on which the application is based have not been adequately tested outside the range of the current climate and (2) forecasting future precipitation with climate models and downscaling these results to a fine spatial resolution have a high degree of uncertainty. This report includes a discussion of the assumptions, uncertainties, and appropriate use of this exploratory application.

  18. Conjunctive management of surface and groundwater resources under projected future climate change scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mani, Amir; Tsai, Frank T.-C.; Kao, Shih-Chieh; Naz, Bibi S.; Ashfaq, Moetasim; Rastogi, Deeksha

    2016-09-01

    This study introduces a mixed integer linear fractional programming (MILFP) method to optimize conjunctive use of future surface water and groundwater resources under projected climate change scenarios. The conjunctive management model maximizes the ratio of groundwater usage to reservoir water usage. Future inflows to the reservoirs were estimated from the future runoffs projected through hydroclimate modeling considering the Variable Infiltration Capacity model, and 11 sets of downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 global climate model projections. Bayesian model averaging was adopted to quantify uncertainty in future runoff projections and reservoir inflow projections due to uncertain future climate projections. Optimized conjunctive management solutions were investigated for a water supply network in northern Louisiana which includes the Sparta aquifer. Runoff projections under climate change scenarios indicate that runoff will likely decrease in winter and increase in other seasons. Results from the developed conjunctive management model with MILFP indicate that the future reservoir water, even at 2.5% low inflow cumulative probability level, could counterbalance groundwater pumping reduction to satisfy demands while improving the Sparta aquifer through conditional groundwater head constraints.

  19. Scenarios of Future Water use on Mediterranean Islands based on an Integrated Assessment of Water Management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lange, M. A.

    2006-12-01

    The availability of water in sufficient quantities and adequate quality presents considerable problems on Mediterranean islands. Because of their isolation and thus the impossibility to draw on more distant or more divers aquifers, they rely entirely on precipitation as natural replenishing mechanism. Recent observations indicate decreasing precipitation, increasing evaporation and steadily growing demand for water on the islands. Future climate change will exacerbate this problem, thus increasing the already pertinent vulnerability to droughts. Responsible planning of water management strategies requires scenarios of future supply and demand through an integrated assessment including climate scenarios based on regional climate modeling as well as scenarios on changes in societal and economical determinants of water demand. Constructing such strategies necessitates a thorough understanding about the interdependencies and feedbacks between physical/hydrological and socio-economic determinants of water balances on an island. This has to be based on a solid understanding of past and present developments of these drivers. In the framework of the EU-funded MEDIS project (Towards sustainable water use on Mediterranean Islands: addressing conflicting demands and varying hydrological, social and economic conditions, EVK1-CT-2001-00092), detailed investigations on present vulnerabilities and adaptation strategies to droughts have been carried out on Mallorca, Corsica, Sicily, Crete and Cyprus. This was based on an interdisciplinary study design including hydrological, geophysical, agricultural-, social and political sciences investigations. A central element of the study has been the close interaction with stakeholders on the islands and their contribution to strategy formulation. An important result has been a specification of vulnerability components including: a physical/environmental-, an economical/regulatory- and a social/institutional/political component. Their

  20. Accounting for radiative forcing from albedo change in future global land-use scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Jones, Andrew D.; Calvin, Katherine V.; Collins, William D.; Edmonds, James A.

    2015-08-01

    We demonstrate the effectiveness of a new method for quantifying radiative forcing from land use and land cover change (LULCC) within an integrated assessment model, the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). The method relies on geographically differentiated estimates of radiative forcing from albedo change associated with major land cover transitions derived from the Community Earth System Model. We find that conversion of 1 km² of woody vegetation (forest and shrublands) to non-woody vegetation (crops and grassland) yields between 0 and –0.71 nW/m² of globally averaged radiative forcing determined by the vegetation characteristics, snow dynamics, and atmospheric radiation environment characteristic within each of 151 regions we consider globally. Across a set of scenarios designed to span a range of potential future LULCC, we find LULCC forcing ranging from –0.06 to –0.29 W/m² by 2070 depending on assumptions regarding future crop yield growth and whether climate policy favors afforestation or bioenergy crops. Inclusion of this previously uncounted forcing in the policy targets driving future climate mitigation efforts leads to changes in fossil fuel emissions on the order of 1.5 PgC/yr by 2070 for a climate forcing limit of 4.5 Wm–2, corresponding to a 12–67 % change in fossil fuel emissions depending on the scenario. Scenarios with significant afforestation must compensate for albedo-induced warming through additional emissions reductions, and scenarios with significant deforestation need not mitigate as aggressively due to albedo-induced cooling. In all scenarios considered, inclusion of albedo forcing in policy targets increases forest and shrub cover globally.

  1. Integrated impacts of future electricity mix scenarios on select southeastern US water resources

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yates, D.; Meldrum, J.; Flores-Lopez, F.; Davis, Michelle

    2013-09-01

    Recent studies on the relationship between thermoelectric cooling and water resources have been made at coarse geographic resolution and do not adequately evaluate the localized water impacts on specific rivers and water bodies. We present the application of an integrated electricity generation-water resources planning model of the Apalachicola/Chattahoochee/Flint (ACF) and Alabama-Coosa-Tallapoosa (ACT) rivers based on the regional energy deployment system (ReEDS) and the water evaluation and planning (WEAP) system. A future scenario that includes a growing population and warmer, drier regional climate shows that benefits from a low-carbon, electricity fuel-mix could help maintain river temperatures below once-through coal-plants. These impacts are shown to be localized, as the cumulative impacts of different electric fuel-mix scenarios are muted in this relatively water-rich region, even in a warmer and drier future climate.

  2. Nowhere to invade: Rumex crispus and Typha latifolia projected to disappear under future climate scenarios.

    PubMed

    Xu, Zhonglin; Feng, Zhaodong; Yang, Jianjun; Zheng, Jianghua; Zhang, Fang

    2013-01-01

    Future climate change has been predicted to affect the potential distribution of plant species. However, only few studies have addressed how invasive species may respond to future climate change despite the known effects of plant species invasion on nutrient cycles, ecosystem functions, and agricultural yields. In this study, we predicted the potential distributions of two invasive species, Rumex crispus and Typha latifolia, under current and future (2050) climatic conditions. Future climate scenarios considered in our study include A1B, A2, A2A, B1, and B2A. We found that these two species will lose their habitat under the A1B, A2, A2A, and B1 scenarios. Their distributions will be maintained under future climatic conditions related to B2A scenarios, but the total area will be less than 10% of that under the current climatic condition. We also investigated variations of the most influential climatic variables that are likely to cause habitat loss of the two species. Our results demonstrate that rising mean annual temperature, variations of the coldest quarter, and precipitation of the coldest quarter are the main factors contributing to habitat loss of R. crispus. For T. latifolia, the main factors are rising mean annual temperature, variations in temperature of the coldest quarter, mean annual precipitation, and precipitation of the coldest quarter. These results demonstrate that the warmer and wetter climatic conditions of the coldest season (or month) will be mainly responsible for habitat loss of R. crispus and T. latifolia in the future. We also discuss uncertainties related to our study (and similar studies) and suggest that particular attention should be directed toward the manner in which invasive species cope with rapid climate changes because evolutionary change can be rapid for species that invade new areas.

  3. Nowhere to Invade: Rumex crispus and Typha latifolia Projected to Disappear under Future Climate Scenarios

    PubMed Central

    Xu, Zhonglin; Feng, Zhaodong; Yang, Jianjun; Zheng, Jianghua; Zhang, Fang

    2013-01-01

    Future climate change has been predicted to affect the potential distribution of plant species. However, only few studies have addressed how invasive species may respond to future climate change despite the known effects of plant species invasion on nutrient cycles, ecosystem functions, and agricultural yields. In this study, we predicted the potential distributions of two invasive species, Rumex crispus and Typha latifolia, under current and future (2050) climatic conditions. Future climate scenarios considered in our study include A1B, A2, A2A, B1, and B2A. We found that these two species will lose their habitat under the A1B, A2, A2A, and B1 scenarios. Their distributions will be maintained under future climatic conditions related to B2A scenarios, but the total area will be less than 10% of that under the current climatic condition. We also investigated variations of the most influential climatic variables that are likely to cause habitat loss of the two species. Our results demonstrate that rising mean annual temperature, variations of the coldest quarter, and precipitation of the coldest quarter are the main factors contributing to habitat loss of R. crispus. For T. latifolia, the main factors are rising mean annual temperature, variations in temperature of the coldest quarter, mean annual precipitation, and precipitation of the coldest quarter. These results demonstrate that the warmer and wetter climatic conditions of the coldest season (or month) will be mainly responsible for habitat loss of R. crispus and T. latifolia in the future. We also discuss uncertainties related to our study (and similar studies) and suggest that particular attention should be directed toward the manner in which invasive species cope with rapid climate changes because evolutionary change can be rapid for species that invade new areas. PMID:23923020

  4. Decadal-timescale estuarine geomorphic change under future scenarios of climate and sediment supply

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ganju, N.K.; Schoellhamer, D.H.

    2010-01-01

    Future estuarine geomorphic change, in response to climate change, sea-level rise, and watershed sediment supply, may govern ecological function, navigation, and water quality. We estimated geomorphic changes in Suisun Bay, CA, under four scenarios using a tidal-timescale hydrodynamic/sediment transport model. Computational expense and data needs were reduced using the morphological hydrograph concept and the morphological acceleration factor. The four scenarios included (1) present-day conditions; (2) sea-level rise and freshwater flow changes of 2030; (3) sea-level rise and decreased watershed sediment supply of 2030; and (4) sea-level rise, freshwater flow changes, and decreased watershed sediment supply of 2030. Sea-level rise increased water levels thereby reducing wave-induced bottom shear stress and sediment redistribution during the wind-wave season. Decreased watershed sediment supply reduced net deposition within the estuary, while minor changes in freshwater flow timing and magnitude induced the smallest overall effect. In all future scenarios, net deposition in the entire estuary and in the shallowest areas did not keep pace with sea-level rise, suggesting that intertidal and wetland areas may struggle to maintain elevation. Tidal-timescale simulations using future conditions were also used to infer changes in optical depth: though sea-level rise acts to decrease mean light irradiance, decreased suspended-sediment concentrations increase irradiance, yielding small changes in optical depth. The modeling results also assisted with the development of a dimensionless estuarine geomorphic number representing the ratio of potential sediment import forces to sediment export forces; we found the number to be linearly related to relative geomorphic change in Suisun Bay. The methods implemented here are widely applicable to evaluating future scenarios of estuarine change over decadal timescales. ?? The Author(s) 2009.

  5. Scenario of the impact of a future climate change on world food production

    SciTech Connect

    Schware, R; Kellogg, W W

    1980-01-01

    In order to study implications of a future CO/sub 2/-induced climatic change, plausible long-term changes of patterns of temperature and rainfall must be devised. One such scenario is presented, showing regions that may be wetter or drier than now in a future warmer climate. This information was combined with data on world food productivity to show some crops that could be affected by climate-induced changes in soil moisture. Assumptions made when preparing the map of possible changes in soil moisture are discussed. (JGB)

  6. Regionally Differentiated Scenarios of Future Albedo Forcing from Anthropogenic Land Cover Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jones, A. D.; Calvin, K. V.; Collins, W.; Edmonds, J.

    2014-12-01

    Using the Community Earth System Model (CESM), we develop geographically differentiated estimates of radiative forcing from albedo change associated with major land cover transitions across 151 regions globally. The regions are formed through the intersectrion of 18 agro-ecological zones with 15 geo-political units, and correspond to the agricultural and land-use decision regions utilized by the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). Incorporating these forcing factors into GCAM allows us to calculate total radiative forcing associated with alternative scenarios of future anthropogenic land cover change. We find that conversion of 1 km2 of woody vegetation (forest and shrublands) to non-woody vegetation (crops and grassland) yields between 0 to -0.71 nW/m2 of globally averaged radiative forcing, depending on regional vegetation characteristics, snow dynamics, and atmospheric radiation environments. Across a set of scenarios designed to span a range of potential future anthropogenic landcover change, we find albedo forcing ranging from -0.05 to -0.25 W/m2 by 2070. The scenarios vary in terms of assumptions regarding future crop yield growth and climate policies, which could favor either afforestation or bioenergy crops. This range of forcing is similar in magnitude to central estimates for present-day forcing from historical land cover change and to several other forcing agents including nitrous oxide.

  7. Transportation Energy Futures Series: Freight Transportation Modal Shares: Scenarios for a Low-Carbon Future

    SciTech Connect

    Brogan, J. J.; Aeppli, A. E.; Beagan, D. F.; Brown, A.; Fischer, M. J.; Grenzeback, L. R.; McKenzie, E.; Vimmerstedt, L.; Vyas, A. D.; Witzke, E.

    2013-03-01

    Truck, rail, water, air, and pipeline modes each serve a distinct share of the freight transportation market. The current allocation of freight by mode is the product of technologic, economic, and regulatory frameworks, and a variety of factors -- price, speed, reliability, accessibility, visibility, security, and safety -- influence mode. Based on a comprehensive literature review, this report considers how analytical methods can be used to project future modal shares and offers insights on federal policy decisions with the potential to prompt shifts to energy-efficient, low-emission modes. There are substantial opportunities to reduce the energy used for freight transportation, but it will be difficult to shift large volumes from one mode to another without imposing considerable additional costs on businesses and consumers. This report explores federal government actions that could help trigger the shifts in modal shares needed to reduce energy consumption and emissions. This is one in a series of reports produced as a result of the Transportation Energy Futures project, a Department of Energy-sponsored multi-agency effort to pinpoint underexplored strategies for reducing GHGs and petroleum dependence related to transportation.

  8. Changes in future air quality, deposition, and aerosol-cloud interactions under future climate and emission scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Glotfelty, Timothy; Zhang, Yang; Karamchandani, Prakash; Streets, David G.

    2016-08-01

    The prospect of global climate change will have wide scale impacts, such as ecological stress and human health hazards. One aspect of concern is future changes in air quality that will result from changes in both meteorological forcing and air pollutant emissions. In this study, the GU-WRF/Chem model is employed to simulate the impact of changing climate and emissions following the IPCC AR4 SRES A1B scenario. An average of 4 future years (2020, 2030, 2040, and 2050) is compared against an average of 2 current years (2001 and 2010). Under this scenario, by the Mid-21st century global air quality is projected to degrade with a global average increase of 2.5 ppb in the maximum 8-hr O3 level and of 0.3 μg m-3 in 24-hr average PM2.5. However, PM2.5 changes are more regional due to regional variations in primary aerosol emissions and emissions of gaseous precursor for secondary PM2.5. Increasing NOx emissions in this scenario combines with a wetter climate elevating levels of OH, HO2, H2O2, and the nitrate radical and increasing the atmosphere's near surface oxidation state. This differs from findings under the RCP scenarios that experience declines in OH from reduced NOx emissions, stratospheric recovery of O3, and increases in CH4 and VOCs. Increasing NOx and O3 levels enhances the nitrogen and O3 deposition, indicating potentially enhanced crop damage and ecosystem stress under this scenario. The enhanced global aerosol level results in enhancements in aerosol optical depth, cloud droplet number concentration, and cloud optical thickness. This leads to dimming at the Earth's surface with a global average reduction in shortwave radiation of 1.2 W m-2. This enhanced dimming leads to a more moderate warming trend and different trends in radiation than those found in NCAR's CCSM simulation, which does not include the advanced chemistry and aerosol treatment of GU-WRF/Chem and cannot simulate the impacts of changing climate and emissions with the same level of detailed

  9. New land use scenarios for the Brazilian Amazonia: how to reach a sustainable future?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aguiar, A. P. D.; Vieira, I.; Toledo, P.; Araujo, R.; Coelho, A.; Pinho, P.; Assis, T.; Dalla-Nora, E. L.; Kawakami Savaget, E.; Batistella, M.

    2014-12-01

    Following an intense deforestation process initiated in the 1960s, clear-cut deforestation rates in the Brazilian Amazon have decreased significantly since 2004. A convergence of conditions contributed to this, including the creation of protected areas, the use of effective monitoring and control systems, and credit restriction mechanisms. Although regional social indicators have also slightly improved, society remains unequal and violent, both in urban and rural areas. Furthermore, the combined results of the fall of deforestation and the increased economic importance of the agribusiness sector have led to the political weakening of the so-called socio-environmental model. Thus, the current situation indicates a future of low (clear-cut) carbon emissions and low social conditions. On the other hand, other threats remain, including forest degradation derived from illegal logging and forest fires. There is also considerable uncertainty about the fate of the remaining forest areas as multiple forces can contribute to the return of high deforestation, including the rapidly expanding global markets for agricultural commodities, large-scale transportation and energy infrastructure projects, and weak institutions. We present the results of a participatory scenario process, in which we discussed the future of the region until 2050 combining normative and exploratory approaches. We include an ideal "Sustainability" scenario (Scenario A) in which we envision major socioeconomic, institutional and environmental achievements. Scenario B stays in the "Middle of the road", in which the society maintains some of the positive environmental trends of the last decade, but not reversing the structural situation of social inequities. Scenario C is a pessimistic vision, named "Fragmentation" with high deforestation rates and low social development. The goal of the work was twofold: (a) to propose a method to enrich the discussion among different private and governmental stakeholders

  10. Threats and opportunities for freshwater conservation under future land use change scenarios in the United States.

    PubMed

    Martinuzzi, Sebastián; Januchowski-Hartley, Stephanie R; Pracheil, Brenda M; McIntyre, Peter B; Plantinga, Andrew J; Lewis, David J; Radeloff, Volker C

    2014-01-01

    Freshwater ecosystems provide vital resources for humans and support high levels of biodiversity, yet are severely threatened throughout the world. The expansion of human land uses, such as urban and crop cover, typically degrades water quality and reduces freshwater biodiversity, thereby jeopardizing both biodiversity and ecosystem services. Identifying and mitigating future threats to freshwater ecosystems requires forecasting where land use changes are most likely. Our goal was to evaluate the potential consequences of future land use on freshwater ecosystems in the coterminous United States by comparing alternative scenarios of land use change (2001-2051) with current patterns of freshwater biodiversity and water quality risk. Using an econometric model, each of our land use scenarios projected greater changes in watersheds of the eastern half of the country, where freshwater ecosystems already experience higher stress from human activities. Future urban expansion emerged as a major threat in regions with high freshwater biodiversity (e.g., the Southeast) or severe water quality problems (e.g., the Midwest). Our scenarios reflecting environmentally oriented policies had some positive effects. Subsidizing afforestation for carbon sequestration reduced crop cover and increased natural vegetation in areas that are currently stressed by low water quality, while discouraging urban sprawl diminished urban expansion in areas of high biodiversity. On the other hand, we found that increases in crop commodity prices could lead to increased agricultural threats in areas of high freshwater biodiversity. Our analyses illustrate the potential for policy changes and market factors to influence future land use trends in certain regions of the country, with important consequences for freshwater ecosystems. Successful conservation of aquatic biodiversity and ecosystem services in the United States into the future will require attending to the potential threats and opportunities

  11. Outlook of possible European contributions to future exploration scenarios and architectures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Perino, M. A.; Fenoglio, F.; Pelle, S.; Couzin, P.; Thaeter, J.; Eilingsfeld, F.; Hufenbach, B.; Bergamasco, A.

    2013-07-01

    Building upon the important experience acquired with the development of the International Space Station, the major spacefaring countries are working within the International Space Exploration Coordination Group (ISECG) at the definition of a coordinated framework for expanding the human presence beyond the Low Earth Orbit, the Global Exploration Roadmap (GER). The GER defines a long-range strategy for global exploration and include three major elements. Common goals of ISECG participating agencies for space exploration. Notional mission scenarios which are technically feasible and programmatically implementable. Two mission scenarios were defined in the 1st iteration of the GER: the "Asteroid Next" and the "Moon Next" mission scenarios. Identification of near-term opportunities for coordination and cooperation related to e.g. the development of technologies, the implementation of robotic missions to destination of interest for closing strategic knowledge gaps which need to be addressed prior to human missions as well as the utilization of ISS for demonstration of exploration enabling capabilities. In 2009 two studies have been awarded by ESA to Industrial Teams led by Thales Alenia Space—Italy and by Astrium—Germany to define, analyze and assess optional European scenarios for future human spaceflight and exploration activities, and to derive the required capabilities for the investigated timeframe until the year 2033. Work on the European scenarios has been aligned with and informed by the international work on the GER. A conceptual design of different Building Block Elements, representing critical contributions to international Design Reference Missions (DRM's) included in the ISECG GER, has been performed and analyzed with respect to programmatic risks, budgets and required technologies. Key driving requirements for the analyzed Building Block elements have been derived from the international DRM's included in the GER. The interim outcomes of the human

  12. Effects of future climate and land use scenarios on riverine source water quality.

    PubMed

    Delpla, Ianis; Rodriguez, Manuel J

    2014-09-15

    Surface water quality is particularly sensitive to land use practices and climatic events that affect its catchment. The relative influence of a set of watershed characteristics (climate, land use, morphology and pedology) and climatic variables on two key water quality parameters (turbidity and fecal coliforms (FC)) was examined in 24 eastern Canadian catchments at various spatial scales (1 km, 5 km, 10 km and the entire catchment). A regression analysis revealed that the entire catchment was a better predictor of water quality. Based on this information, linear mixed effect models for predicting turbidity and FC levels were developed. A set of land use and climate scenarios was considered and applied within the water quality models. Four land use scenarios (no change, same rate of variation, optimistic and pessimistic) and three climate change scenarios (B1, A1B and A2) were tested and variations for the near future (2025) were assessed and compared to the reference period (2000). Climate change impacts on water quality remained low annually for this time horizon (turbidity: +1.5%, FC: +1.6%, A2 scenario). On the other hand, the influence of land use changes appeared to predominate. Significant benefits for both parameters could be expected following the optimistic scenario (turbidity: -16.4%, FC: -6.3%; p < 0.05). However, pessimistic land use scenario led to significant increases on an annual basis (turbidity: +11.6%, FC: +15.2%; p < 0.05). Additional simulations conducted for the late 21st century (2090) revealed that climate change impacts could become equivalent to those modeled for land use for this horizon.

  13. Historical change and future scenarios of sea level rise in Macau and adjacent waters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Lin; Huang, Gang; Zhou, Wen; Chen, Wen

    2016-04-01

    Against a background of climate change, Macau is very exposed to sea level rise (SLR) because of its low elevation, small size, and ongoing land reclamation. Therefore, we evaluate sea level changes in Macau, both historical and, especially, possible future scenarios, aiming to provide knowledge and a framework to help accommodate and protect against future SLR. Sea level in Macau is now rising at an accelerated rate: 1.35 mm yr-1 over 1925-2010 and jumping to 4.2 mm yr-1 over 1970-2010, which outpaces the rise in global mean sea level. In addition, vertical land movement in Macau contributes little to local sea level change. In the future, the rate of SLR in Macau will be about 20% higher than the global average, as a consequence of a greater local warming tendency and strengthened northward winds. Specifically, the sea level is projected to rise 8-12, 22-51 and 35-118 cm by 2020, 2060 and 2100, respectively, depending on the emissions scenario and climate sensitivity. Under the +8.5 W m-2 Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP8.5) scenario the increase in sea level by 2100 will reach 65-118 cm—double that under RCP2.6. Moreover, the SLR will accelerate under RCP6.0 and RCP8.5, while remaining at a moderate and steady rate under RCP4.5 and RCP2.6. The key source of uncertainty stems from the emissions scenario and climate sensitivity, among which the discrepancies in SLR are small during the first half of the 21st century but begin to diverge thereafter.

  14. Modeling future land use scenarios in South Korea: applying the IPCC special report on emissions scenarios and the SLEUTH model on a local scale.

    PubMed

    Han, Haejin; Hwang, YunSeop; Ha, Sung Ryong; Kim, Byung Sik

    2015-05-01

    This study developed three scenarios of future land use/land cover on a local level for the Kyung-An River Basin and its vicinity in South Korea at a 30-m resolution based on the two scenario families of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report Emissions Scenarios (SRES): A2 and B1, as well as a business-as-usual scenario. The IPCC SRES A2 and B1 were used to define future local development patterns and associated land use change. We quantified the population-driven demand for urban land use for each qualitative storyline and allocated the urban demand in geographic space using the SLEUTH model. The model results demonstrate the possible land use/land cover change scenarios for the years from 2000 to 2070 by examining the broad narrative of each SRES within the context of a local setting, such as the Kyoungan River Basin, constructing narratives of local development shifts and modeling a set of 'best guess' approximations of the future land use conditions in the study area. This study found substantial differences in demands and patterns of land use changes among the scenarios, indicating compact development patterns under the SRES B1 compared to the rapid and dispersed development under the SRES A2.

  15. Modeling Future Land Use Scenarios in South Korea: Applying the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios and the SLEUTH Model on a Local Scale

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Han, Haejin; Hwang, YunSeop; Ha, Sung Ryong; Kim, Byung Sik

    2015-05-01

    This study developed three scenarios of future land use/land cover on a local level for the Kyung-An River Basin and its vicinity in South Korea at a 30-m resolution based on the two scenario families of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report Emissions Scenarios (SRES): A2 and B1, as well as a business-as-usual scenario. The IPCC SRES A2 and B1 were used to define future local development patterns and associated land use change. We quantified the population-driven demand for urban land use for each qualitative storyline and allocated the urban demand in geographic space using the SLEUTH model. The model results demonstrate the possible land use/land cover change scenarios for the years from 2000 to 2070 by examining the broad narrative of each SRES within the context of a local setting, such as the Kyoungan River Basin, constructing narratives of local development shifts and modeling a set of `best guess' approximations of the future land use conditions in the study area. This study found substantial differences in demands and patterns of land use changes among the scenarios, indicating compact development patterns under the SRES B1 compared to the rapid and dispersed development under the SRES A2.

  16. Scenarios of Future Socio-Economics, Energy, Land Use, and Radiative Forcing

    SciTech Connect

    Eom, Jiyong; Moss, Richard H.; Edmonds, James A.; Calvin, Katherine V.; Clarke, Leon E.; Dooley, James J.; Kim, Son H.; Kopp, Roberrt; Kyle, G. Page; Luckow, Patrick W.; Patel, Pralit L.; Thomson, Allison M.; Wise, Marshall A.; Zhou, Yuyu

    2013-04-13

    This chapter explores uncertainty in future scenarios of energy, land use, emissions and radiative forcing that span the range in the literature for radiative forcing, but also consider uncertainty in two other dimensions, challenges to mitigation and challenges to adaptation. We develop a set of six scenarios that we explore in detail including the underlying the context in which they are set, assumptions that drive the scenarios, the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), used to produce quantified implications for those assumptions, and results for the global energy and land-use systems as well as emissions, concentrations and radiative forcing. We also describe the history of scenario development and the present state of development of this branch of climate change research. We discuss the implications of alternative social, economic, demographic, and technology development possibilities, as well as potential stabilization regimes for the supply of and demand for energy, the choice of energy technologies, and prices of energy and agricultural commodities. Land use and land cover will also be discussed with the emphasis on the interaction between the demand for bioenergy and crops, crop yields, crop prices, and policy settings to limit greenhouse gas emissions.

  17. Evaluation of Future Precipitation Scenario Using Statistical Downscaling MODEL over Three Climatic Region of Nepal Himalaya

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sigdel, M.

    2014-12-01

    Statistical downscaling model (SDSM) was applied in downscaling precipitation in the three climatic regions such as humid, sub-humid and arid region of Nepal Himalaya. The study includes the calibration of the SDSM model by using large-scale atmospheric variables encompassing NCEP reanalysis data, the validation of the model and the outputs of downscaled scenarios A2 (high green house gases emission) and B2 (low green house gases emission) of the HadCM3 model for the future. Under both scenarios H3A2 and H3B2, during the prediction period of 2010-2099, the change of annual mean precipitation in the three climatic regions would present a tendency of surplus of precipitation as compared to the mean values of the base period. On the average for all three climatic regions of Nepal the annual mean precipitation would increase by about 13.75% under scenario H3A2 and increase near about 11.68% under scenario H3B2 in the 2050s. For the 2080s there would be increase of 8.28% and 13.30% under H3A2 and H3B2 respectively compared to the base period.

  18. Salmon Futures: Stakeholder-driven salmon management scenarios under changing environmental conditions on Alaska's Kenai Peninsula

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Trammell, E. J.; Krupa, M.

    2015-12-01

    Understanding the adaptive capacity of individuals within natural resource management agencies is a key component of assessing the vulnerability of salmon to future environmental change. We seek to explore the adaptive capacity of natural resource agencies on Alaska's Kenai Peninsula by exploring the drivers and implications of different salmon allocation scenarios through participatory workshops with managers. We present here the initial results from the first workshop, which explores the various drivers responsible for changes in salmon allocation. Ranging from global to local, and biophysical to socioeconomic, these drivers are also linked to specific actors in the region. These complex interactions comprise the Kenai Peninsula's social-ecological system and determine its ability to react to change. Using a stakeholder-driven scenario framework, we aim to: 1) explore the adaptive capacity of natural resource agencies in the region by exploring and exposing managers to different but logically coherent salmon allocation scenarios; 2) build stakeholder confidence in the science of environmental change on the Kenai Peninsula; and 3) develop a decision support tool that helps regional resource managers better understand their changing environment. We utilize and present the scenario framework as a platform for integrating hydrologic, landscape, and cultural change information into actionable decisions, crafted by the stakeholders, so that landscape change on the Kenai becomes more coordinated.

  19. Global Health Impacts of Future Aviation Emissions Under Alternative Control Scenarios

    PubMed Central

    2015-01-01

    There is strong evidence of an association between fine particulate matter less than 2.5 μm (PM2.5) in aerodynamic diameter and adverse health outcomes. This study analyzes the global excess mortality attributable to the aviation sector in the present (2006) and in the future (three 2050 scenarios) using the integrated exposure response model that was also used in the 2010 Global Burden of Disease assessment. The PM2.5 concentrations for the present and future scenarios were calculated using aviation emission inventories developed by the Volpe National Transportation Systems Center and a global chemistry-climate model. We found that while excess mortality due to the aviation sector emissions is greater in 2050 compared to 2006, improved fuel policies (technology and operations improvements yielding smaller increases in fuel burn compared to 2006, and conversion to fully sustainable fuels) in 2050 could lead to 72% fewer deaths for adults 25 years and older than a 2050 scenario with no fuel improvements. Among the four health outcomes examined, ischemic heart disease was the greatest cause of death. Our results suggest that implementation of improved fuel policies can have substantial human health benefits. PMID:25412200

  20. Evolution of strategic risks under future scenarios for improved utility master plans.

    PubMed

    Luís, Ana; Lickorish, Fiona; Pollard, Simon

    2016-01-01

    Integrated, long-term risk management in the water sector is poorly developed. Whilst scenario planning has been applied to singular issues (e.g. climate change), it often misses a link to risk management because the likelihood of impacts in the long-term are frequently unaccounted for in these analyses. Here we apply the morphological approach to scenario development for a case study utility, Empresa Portuguesa das Águas Livres (EPAL). A baseline portfolio of strategic risks threatening the achievement of EPAL's corporate objectives was evolved through the lens of three future scenarios, 'water scarcity', 'financial resource scarcity' and 'strong economic growth', built on drivers such as climate, demographic, economic, regulatory and technological changes and validated through a set of expert workshops. The results represent how the baseline set of risks might develop over a 30 year period, allowing threats and opportunities to be identified and enabling strategies for master plans to be devised. We believe this to be the first combined use of risk and futures methods applied to a portfolio of strategic risks in the water utility sector.

  1. A new scenario framework for climate change research. Background, process, and future directions

    SciTech Connect

    Ebi, Kristie L.; Hallegatte, Stephane; Kram, Tom; Arnell, Nigel W.; Carter, Tim; Edmonds, James A.; Kriegler, Elmar; Mathur, Ritu; O'Neill, Brian; Riahi, Keywan; Winkler, Harald; Van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Zwickel, Timm

    2013-09-27

    The scientific community is developing new integrated global, regional, and sectoral scenarios to facilitate interdisciplinary research and assessment to explore the range of possible future climates and related physical changes could pose to human and natural systems; how these could interact with social, economic, and environmental development pathways; the degree to which mitigation and adaptation policies can avoid and reduce those risks; the costs and benefits of various policy mixes; residual impacts under alternative pathways; and the relationship with sustainable development. This paper provides the background to, and process of, developing the conceptual framework for these scenarios, described in three other papers in this Special Issue (van Vuuren et al.; O'Neill et al.; Kriegler et al.). The paper also discusses research needs to further develop and apply this framework. The goal is to encourage climate change researchers from a broad range of perspectives and disciplines to work together to develop policy-relevant scenarios and explore the implications of different possible futures for the challenges and opportunities human and natural systems could face with increasing climate change.

  2. Global health impacts of future aviation emissions under alternative control scenarios.

    PubMed

    Morita, Haruka; Yang, Suijia; Unger, Nadine; Kinney, Patrick L

    2014-12-16

    There is strong evidence of an association between fine particulate matter less than 2.5 μm (PM2.5) in aerodynamic diameter and adverse health outcomes. This study analyzes the global excess mortality attributable to the aviation sector in the present (2006) and in the future (three 2050 scenarios) using the integrated exposure response model that was also used in the 2010 Global Burden of Disease assessment. The PM2.5 concentrations for the present and future scenarios were calculated using aviation emission inventories developed by the Volpe National Transportation Systems Center and a global chemistry-climate model. We found that while excess mortality due to the aviation sector emissions is greater in 2050 compared to 2006, improved fuel policies (technology and operations improvements yielding smaller increases in fuel burn compared to 2006, and conversion to fully sustainable fuels) in 2050 could lead to 72% fewer deaths for adults 25 years and older than a 2050 scenario with no fuel improvements. Among the four health outcomes examined, ischemic heart disease was the greatest cause of death. Our results suggest that implementation of improved fuel policies can have substantial human health benefits.

  3. Beyond scenario planning: projecting the future using models at Wind Cave National Park (USA)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    King, D. A.; Bachelet, D. M.; Symstad, A. J.

    2011-12-01

    Scenario planning has been used by the National Park Service as a tool for natural resource management planning in the face of climate change. Sets of plausible but divergent future scenarios are constructed from available information and expert opinion and serve as starting point to derive climate-smart management strategies. However, qualitative hypotheses about how systems would react to a particular set of conditions assumed from coarse scale climate projections may lack the scientific rigor expected from a federal agency. In an effort to better assess the range of likely futures at Wind Cave National Park, a project was conceived to 1) generate high resolution historic and future climate time series to identify local weather patterns that may or may not persist, 2) simulate the hydrological cycle in this geologically varied landscape and its response to future climate, 3) project vegetation dynamics and ensuing changes in the biogeochemical cycles given grazing and fire disturbances under new climate conditions, and 4) synthesize and compare results with those from the scenario planning exercise. In this framework, we tested a dynamic global vegetation model against local information on vegetation cover, disturbance history and stream flow to better understand the potential resilience of these ecosystems to climate change. We discuss the tradeoffs between a coarse scale application of the model showing regional trends with limited ability to project the fine scale mosaic of vegetation at Wind Cave, and a finer scale approach that can account for local slope effects on water balance and better assess the vulnerability of landscape facets, but requires more intensive data acquisition. We elaborate on the potential for sharing information between models to mitigate the often-limited treatment of biological feedbacks in the physical representations of soil and atmospheric processes.

  4. Agricultural pests under future climate conditions: downscaling of regional climate scenarios with a stochastic weather generator

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hirschi, M.; Stöckli, S.; Dubrovsky, M.; Spirig, C.; Rotach, M. W.; Calanca, P.; Samietz, J.

    2010-09-01

    As a consequence of current and projected climate change in temperate regions of Europe, agricultural pests and diseases are expected to occur more frequently and possibly to extend to previously unaffected regions. Given their economic and ecological relevance, detailed forecasting tools for various pests have been developed, which model the infestation depending on actual weather conditions. Assessing the future risk of pest-related damages therefore requires future weather data at high temporal and spatial resolution. In particular, pest forecast models are often not based on screen temperature and precipitation alone (i.e., the most generally projected climate variables), but might require input variables such as soil temperature, in-canopy net radiation or leaf wetness. Here, we use a stochastic weather and a re-sampling procedure for producing site-specific hourly weather data from regional climate change scenarios for 2050 in Switzerland. The climate change scenarios were derived from multi-model projections and provide probabilistic information on future regional changes in temperature and precipitation. Hourly temperature, precipitation and radiation data were produced by first generating daily weather data for these climate scenarios and then using a nearest neighbor re-sampling approach for creating realistic diurnal cycles. These hourly weather time series were then used for modeling important phases in the lifecycle of codling moth, the major insect pest in apple orchards worldwide. First results indicate a shift in the occurrence and duration of phases relevant for pest disease control for projected as compared to current climate (e.g. the flight of the codling moth starts about ten days earlier in future climate), continuing an already observed trend towards more favorable conditions for this insect during the last 20 years.

  5. Global dynamical projections of surface ocean wave climate for a future high greenhouse gas emission scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hemer, Mark A.; Katzfey, Jack; Trenham, Claire E.

    2013-10-01

    A global 1° implementation of the spectral wave model, WaveWatch III, was forced with surface winds from two atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs: ECHAM5 and CSIRO Mk3.5), dynamically downscaled to 60 km using the Cubic Conformal Atmospheric Model. Two 30-yr time slices were simulated: 1979-2009 representing current climate, and 2070-2099 representing a future climate scenario under a high greenhouse gas emission scenario (SRES A2). A further wave model simulation with forcing from the NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis for 1979-2009, using the same model settings as the climate model forced runs, serves as a benchmark hindcast to assess skill of climate-model-derived wave fields. Climate model forced wave simulations for the 1979-2009 time-slice display biases relative to the benchmark wave climate - notably an overestimation of wave generation in the Southern Ocean, which influences broad regions of the Pacific which receive these waves as swell. Wave model runs were repeated following bias-adjustment of the climate model forcing winds with the aim to reduce biases, but model skill to simulate the monthly 99th percentile of significant wave heights deteriorates severely. Projected future changes in wave climate (between 1979-2009 and 2070-2099) under the SRES A2 greenhouse gas emission scenario are relatively insensitive to whether bias-adjustment of winds has been applied. Two robust features of projected change are observed from the two climate model sets which are qualitatively consistent with previous studies: a projected increase of Southern Ocean wave generation leading to approximately 10% increase in Southern Ocean mean significant wave heights (HSm), and a projected decrease in wave generation in the North Atlantic, with changes in HSm of similar magnitude. Interannual anomalies of monthly mean significant wave height, HSm, were regressed against climate indices (Southern Oscillation Index - SOI; North Atlantic Oscillation - NAO and

  6. Using scenarios to assess the future supply of NHS nursing staff in England.

    PubMed

    Buchan, James; Seccombe, Ian

    2012-01-01

    This paper examines issues related to the future supply of registered nursing staff, midwives and health visitors in the National Health Service (NHS) in England at a time when there are major public sector funding constraints and as more of these staff are reaching retirement age. Based on available workforce data, the paper reviews different possible scenarios for the supply of NHS nurses over a ten year period, assessing the impact of different numbers of new staff being trained and of varying retirement patterns from the ageing profession.The government in England has more policy levers available than is the case in many other countries. It determines the number of pre-registration training places that are commissioned and funded, it is the major employer, and it also controls the inflow of nurses from other countries through migration policies. Scenario models provide a picture of what the future might look like under various assumptions. These outcomes can be quantified and the results used to assess the risks and opportunities of alternate policy decisions. The approach used in this paper is that of the aggregate deterministic supply model.As part of this exercise, eight scenarios were selected and modelled. These were:A. "No change"- current inflows and outflowsB. "Redundancies" - current inflow with higher outflowC. "Improved retention" - current inflow with lower outflowD. "Reduced training intakes A" - lower inflows with lower outflowE. "Reduced training intakes B" - lower inflow with higher outflowsF. "Pension time-bomb"- current inflow with a higher rate of retirementG. "Pension delayed"- current inflow with a lower rate of retirementH. "Worst case" - lower inflow and higher outflow including higher retirementMost of the scenarios indicate that a reduction in the supply of nursing staff to NHS England is possible over the next ten years. Small changes in assumptions can make a substantial difference to outcomes and therefore emphasize the point that it

  7. Snow occurrence changes over the central and eastern United States under future warming scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ning, Liang; Bradley, Raymond S.

    2015-11-01

    Changes of snow occurrence across the central and eastern United States under future warming for the late 21st century are investigated by applying an empirical hyperbolic tangent function to both observed and downscaled high spatial resolution (~12.5 km) daily temperature and precipitation, to compare the historical (1981-2000) and future (2081-2100) snow occurrence. The observed distributions of snow frequency show that snow-rain transition zones are mainly zonally distributed, since they are largely determined by temperature, with slight shifts to the south over the Appalachian Mountains. The snow-rain transition zone is located around 38-46°N for November and March, and 32-42°N for winter months (DJF). These observed patterns are reproduced well for the historical period by an ensemble average of multiple general circulation models (GCMs). The probabilistic projections show that the snow-rain transition zone will shift to the north under the background of global warming at magnitudes of 2-6 °C, indicating that large areas will experience a partial, or even a very large, loss of snow occurrence in the future. The northward shifts are about 2° latitude under the representative concentration pathways 4.5 (RCP4.5) scenario and 4° latitude under the RCP8.5 scenario. The percentages of the area losing snow occurrence are also assessed.

  8. Snow occurrence changes over the central and eastern United States under future warming scenarios.

    PubMed

    Ning, Liang; Bradley, Raymond S

    2015-01-01

    Changes of snow occurrence across the central and eastern United States under future warming for the late 21(st) century are investigated by applying an empirical hyperbolic tangent function to both observed and downscaled high spatial resolution (~12.5 km) daily temperature and precipitation, to compare the historical (1981-2000) and future (2081-2100) snow occurrence. The observed distributions of snow frequency show that snow-rain transition zones are mainly zonally distributed, since they are largely determined by temperature, with slight shifts to the south over the Appalachian Mountains. The snow-rain transition zone is located around 38-46°N for November and March, and 32-42°N for winter months (DJF). These observed patterns are reproduced well for the historical period by an ensemble average of multiple general circulation models (GCMs). The probabilistic projections show that the snow-rain transition zone will shift to the north under the background of global warming at magnitudes of 2-6 °C, indicating that large areas will experience a partial, or even a very large, loss of snow occurrence in the future. The northward shifts are about 2° latitude under the representative concentration pathways 4.5 (RCP4.5) scenario and 4° latitude under the RCP8.5 scenario. The percentages of the area losing snow occurrence are also assessed. PMID:26584522

  9. Future scenarios for viticultural zoning in Europe: ensemble projections and uncertainties

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fraga, H.; Malheiro, A. C.; Moutinho-Pereira, J.; Santos, J. A.

    2013-11-01

    Optimum climate conditions for grapevine growth are limited geographically and may be further challenged by a changing climate. Due to the importance of the winemaking sector in Europe, the assessment of future scenarios for European viticulture is of foremost relevance. A 16-member ensemble of model transient experiments (generated by the ENSEMBLES project) under a greenhouse gas emission scenario and for two future periods (2011-2040 and 2041-2070) is used in assessing climate change projections for six viticultural zoning indices. After model data calibration/validation using an observational gridded daily dataset, changes in their ensemble means and inter-annual variability are discussed, also taking into account the model uncertainties. Over southern Europe, the projected warming combined with severe dryness in the growing season is expected to have detrimental impacts on the grapevine development and wine quality, requiring measures to cope with heat and water stress. Furthermore, the expected warming and the maintenance of moderately wet growing seasons over most of the central European winemaking regions may require a selection of new grapevine varieties, as well as an enhancement of pest/disease control. New winemaking regions may arise over northern Europe and high altitude areas, when considering climatic factors only. An enhanced inter-annual variability is also projected over most of Europe. All these future changes pose new challenges for the European winemaking sector.

  10. Future scenarios for viticultural zoning in Europe: ensemble projections and uncertainties.

    PubMed

    Fraga, H; Malheiro, A C; Moutinho-Pereira, J; Santos, J A

    2013-11-01

    Optimum climate conditions for grapevine growth are limited geographically and may be further challenged by a changing climate. Due to the importance of the winemaking sector in Europe, the assessment of future scenarios for European viticulture is of foremost relevance. A 16-member ensemble of model transient experiments (generated by the ENSEMBLES project) under a greenhouse gas emission scenario and for two future periods (2011-2040 and 2041-2070) is used in assessing climate change projections for six viticultural zoning indices. After model data calibration/validation using an observational gridded daily dataset, changes in their ensemble means and inter-annual variability are discussed, also taking into account the model uncertainties. Over southern Europe, the projected warming combined with severe dryness in the growing season is expected to have detrimental impacts on the grapevine development and wine quality, requiring measures to cope with heat and water stress. Furthermore, the expected warming and the maintenance of moderately wet growing seasons over most of the central European winemaking regions may require a selection of new grapevine varieties, as well as an enhancement of pest/disease control. New winemaking regions may arise over northern Europe and high altitude areas, when considering climatic factors only. An enhanced inter-annual variability is also projected over most of Europe. All these future changes pose new challenges for the European winemaking sector. PMID:23306774

  11. Snow occurrence changes over the central and eastern United States under future warming scenarios

    PubMed Central

    Ning, Liang; Bradley, Raymond S.

    2015-01-01

    Changes of snow occurrence across the central and eastern United States under future warming for the late 21st century are investigated by applying an empirical hyperbolic tangent function to both observed and downscaled high spatial resolution (~12.5 km) daily temperature and precipitation, to compare the historical (1981–2000) and future (2081–2100) snow occurrence. The observed distributions of snow frequency show that snow-rain transition zones are mainly zonally distributed, since they are largely determined by temperature, with slight shifts to the south over the Appalachian Mountains. The snow-rain transition zone is located around 38–46°N for November and March, and 32–42°N for winter months (DJF). These observed patterns are reproduced well for the historical period by an ensemble average of multiple general circulation models (GCMs). The probabilistic projections show that the snow-rain transition zone will shift to the north under the background of global warming at magnitudes of 2–6 °C, indicating that large areas will experience a partial, or even a very large, loss of snow occurrence in the future. The northward shifts are about 2° latitude under the representative concentration pathways 4.5 (RCP4.5) scenario and 4° latitude under the RCP8.5 scenario. The percentages of the area losing snow occurrence are also assessed. PMID:26584522

  12. Projecting Future Heat-Related Mortality under Climate Change Scenarios: A Systematic Review

    PubMed Central

    Barnett, Adrian Gerard; Wang, Xiaoming; Vaneckova, Pavla; FitzGerald, Gerard; Tong, Shilu

    2011-01-01

    Background: Heat-related mortality is a matter of great public health concern, especially in the light of climate change. Although many studies have found associations between high temperatures and mortality, more research is needed to project the future impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality. Objectives: We conducted a systematic review of research and methods for projecting future heat-related mortality under climate change scenarios. Data sources and extraction: A literature search was conducted in August 2010, using the electronic databases PubMed, Scopus, ScienceDirect, ProQuest, and Web of Science. The search was limited to peer-reviewed journal articles published in English from January 1980 through July 2010. Data synthesis: Fourteen studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Most projections showed that climate change would result in a substantial increase in heat-related mortality. Projecting heat-related mortality requires understanding historical temperature–mortality relationships and considering the future changes in climate, population, and acclimatization. Further research is needed to provide a stronger theoretical framework for projections, including a better understanding of socioeconomic development, adaptation strategies, land-use patterns, air pollution, and mortality displacement. Conclusions: Scenario-based projection research will meaningfully contribute to assessing and managing the potential impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality. PMID:21816703

  13. Strengthening of the hydrological cycle in future scenarios: atmospheric energy and water balance perspective

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alessandri, A.; Fogli, P. G.; Vichi, M.; Zeng, N.

    2012-07-01

    Future climate scenarios experiencing global warming are expected to strengthen hydrological cycle during 21st century by comparison with the last decades of 20th century. We analyze strengthening of the global-scale increase in precipitation from the perspective of changes in whole atmospheric water and energy balances. Furthermore, by combining energy and water equations for the whole atmosphere we profitably obtain constraints for the changes in surface fluxes and for the partitioning at the surface between sensible and latent components. Above approach is applied to investigate difference in strengthening of hydrological cycle in two scenario centennial simulations performed with an Earth System model forced with specified atmospheric concentration pathways. Alongside the medium-high non-mitigation scenario SRES A1B, we considered a new aggressive-mitigation scenario (E1) with reduced fossil fuel use for energy production aimed at stabilizing global warming below 2 K. Quite unexpectedly, mitigation scenario is shown to strengthen hydrological cycle more than SRES A1B till around 2070. Our analysis shows that this is mostly a consequence of the larger increase in the negative radiative imbalance of atmosphere in E1 compared to A1B. This appears to be primarily related to the abated aerosol concentration in E1, which considerably reduces atmospheric absorption of solar radiation compared to A1B. In contrast, last decades of 21st century (21C) show marked increase of global precipitation in A1B compared to E1, despite the fact that the two scenarios display almost same overall increase of radiative imbalance with respect to 20th century. Our results show that radiative cooling is weakly effective in A1B throughout all 21C, so that two distinct mechanisms characterize the diverse strengthening of hydrological cycle in mid and end 21C. It is only through a very large perturbation of surface fluxes that A1B achieves larger increase of global precipitation in the last

  14. The Future of Land Use in the United States: Downscaling SRES Emission Scenarios to Ecoregions and Pixels

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sleeter, B. M.; Sohl, T. L.; Sayler, K.; Bouchard, M. A.; Reker, R.; Sleeter, R. R.; Zhu, Z.; Auch, R.; Acevedo, W.; Soulard, C. E.; Griffith, G.

    2011-12-01

    Scenario analysis has emerged as a useful tool for evaluating uncertain futures in ecological systems. We describe research initiated by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to develop a comprehensive portfolio of future land-use and land-cover (LULC) scenarios for the United States. The USGS has identified LULC scenarios as a focal area of future research. Scenarios are used to assist in the understanding of possible future developments in complex systems that typically have high levels of scientific uncertainty. Scenarios generally require knowledge of history and current conditions, and specific understanding about how drivers of change have acted to influence the historical and current condition. We describe methods and results of downscaling LULC and associated narrative storylines from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES). The downscaling methods leverage three primary sources of information: 1) comprehensive land-use histories developed through remote sensing and survey data, 2) modeled LULC outputs from global integrated assessment models (IAMs), and 3) expert knowledge of regional land change. First, national and ecoregional narrative storylines were derived from the global IPCC framework. Based on the characteristics of downscaled narrative storylines, experts used historical data and information on the rates and types of LULC change, in conjunction with coarse-scale IAM projections of land use, to produce future quantitative scenarios. An accounting model was developed to handle all aspects of scenario downscaling. Here we present the methods used to construct ecoregion-specific scenarios of LULC change consistent with the IPCC-SRES scenarios, as well as results at multiple geographic scales. The USGS LandCarbon assessment is implementing a scenario-based approach for projecting changes in LULC that may result in changes to ecosystem carbon flux and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Results described

  15. Experimental Design for CMIP6: Aerosol, Land Use, and Future Scenarios Final Report

    SciTech Connect

    Arnott, James

    2015-10-30

    The Aspen Global Change Institute hosted a technical science workshop entitled, “Experimental design for CMIP6: Aerosol, Land Use, and Future Scenarios,” on August 3-8, 2014 in Aspen, CO. Claudia Tebaldi (NCAR) and Brian O’Neill (NCAR) served as co-chairs for the workshop. The Organizing committee also included Dave Lawrence (NCAR), Jean-Francois Lamarque (NCAR), George Hurtt (University of Maryland), & Detlef van Vuuren (PBL Netherlands Environmental Change). The meeting included the participation of 22 scientists representing many of the major climate modeling centers for a total of 110 participant days.

  16. Future Arctic temperature change resulting from a range of aerosol emissions scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wobus, Cameron; Flanner, Mark; Sarofim, Marcus C.; Moura, Maria Cecilia P.; Smith, Steven J.

    2016-06-01

    The Arctic temperature response to emissions of aerosols -- specifically black carbon (BC), organic carbon (OC), and sulfate -- depends on both the sector and the region where these emissions originate. Thus, the net Arctic temperature response to global aerosol emissions reductions will depend strongly on the blend of emissions sources being targeted. We use recently published equilibrium Arctic temperature response factors for BC, OC, and sulfate to estimate the range of present-day and future Arctic temperature changes from seven different aerosol emissions scenarios. Globally, Arctic temperature changes calculated from all of these emissions scenarios indicate that present-day emissions from the domestic and transportation sectors generate the majority of present-day Arctic warming from BC. However, in all of these scenarios, this warming is more than offset by cooling resulting from SO2 emissions from the energy sector. Thus, long-term climate mitigation strategies that are focused on reducing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from the energy sector could generate short-term, aerosol-induced Arctic warming. A properly phased approach that targets BC-rich emissions from the transportation sector as well as the domestic sectors in key regions -- while simultaneously working toward longer-term goals of CO2 mitigation -- could potentially avoid some amount of short-term Arctic warming.

  17. Assessing Sediment Yield for Selected Watersheds in the Laurentian Great Lakes Basin Under Future Agricultural Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shao, Yang; Lunetta, Ross S.; Macpherson, Alexander J.; Luo, Junyan; Chen, Guo

    2013-01-01

    In the Laurentian Great Lakes Basin (GLB), corn acreage has been expanding since 2005 in response to high demand for corn as an ethanol feedstock. This study integrated remote sensing-derived products and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) within a geographic information system (GIS) modeling environment to assess the impacts of cropland change on sediment yield within four selected watersheds in the GLB. The SWAT models were calibrated during a 6 year period (2000-2005), and predicted stream flows were validated. The R 2 values were 0.76, 0.80, 0.72, and 0.81 for the St. Joseph River, the St. Mary River, the Peshtigo River, and the Cattaraugus Creek watersheds, respectively. The corresponding E (Nash and Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient) values ranged from 0.24 to 0.79. The average annual sediment yields (tons/ha/year) ranged from 0.12 to 4.44 for the baseline (2000 to 2008) condition. Sediment yields were predicted to increase for possible future cropland change scenarios. The first scenario was to convert all "other" agricultural row crop types (i.e., sorghum) to corn fields and switch the current/baseline crop rotation into continuous corn. The average annual sediment yields increased 7-42 % for different watersheds. The second scenario was to further expand the corn planting to hay/pasture fields. The average annual sediment yields increased 33-127 % compared with baseline conditions.

  18. Sensitivity of the global submarine hydrate inventory to scenarios of future climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hunter, S. J.; Goldobin, D. S.; Haywood, A. M.; Ridgwell, A.; Rees, J. G.

    2013-04-01

    The global submarine inventory of methane hydrate is thought to be considerable. The stability of marine hydrates is sensitive to changes in temperature and pressure and once destabilised, hydrates release methane into sediments and ocean and potentially into the atmosphere, creating a positive feedback with climate change. Here we present results from a multi-model study investigating how the methane hydrate inventory dynamically responds to different scenarios of future climate and sea level change. The results indicate that a warming-induced reduction is dominant even when assuming rather extreme rates of sea level rise (up to 20 mm yr-1) under moderate warming scenarios (RCP 4.5). Over the next century modelled hydrate dissociation is focussed in the top ˜100m of Arctic and Subarctic sediments beneath <500m water depth. Predicted dissociation rates are particularly sensitive to the modelled vertical hydrate distribution within sediments. Under the worst case business-as-usual scenario (RCP 8.5), upper estimates of resulting global sea-floor methane fluxes could exceed estimates of natural global fluxes by 2100 (>30-50TgCH4yr-1), although subsequent oxidation in the water column could reduce peak atmospheric release rates to 0.75-1.4 Tg CH4 yr-1.

  19. Choosing an electrical energy future for the Pacific Northwest: an Alternative Scenario

    SciTech Connect

    Cavanagh, R.C.; Mott, L.; Beers, J.R.; Lash, T.L.

    1980-08-01

    An Alternative Scenario for the electric energy future of the Pacific Northwest is presented. The Scenario includes an analysis of each major end use of electricity in the residential, commercial, manufacturing, and agricultural sectors. This approach affords the most direct means of projecting the likely long-term growth in consumption and the opportunities for increasing the efficiency with which electricity is used in each instance. The total demand for electricity by these end uses then provides a basis for determining whether additional central station generation is required to 1995. A projection of total demand for electricity depends on the combination of many independent variables and assumptions. Thus, the approach is a resilient one; no single assumption or set of linked assumptions dominates the analysis. End-use analysis allows policymakers to visualize the benefits of alternative programs, and to make comparison with the findings of other studies. It differs from the traditional load forecasts for the Pacific Northwest, which until recently were based largely on straightforward extrapolations of historical trends in the growth of electrical demand. The Scenario addresses the supply potential of alternative energy sources. Data are compiled for 1975, 1985, and 1995 in each end-use sector.

  20. Urban Growth Scenarios of a Future MEGA City: Case Study Ahmedabad

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lehner, A.; Kraus, V.; Steinnocher, K.

    2016-06-01

    The study of urban areas and their development focuses on cities, their physical and demographic expansion and the tensions and impacts that go along with urban growth. Especially in developing countries and emerging national economies like India, consistent and up to date information or other planning relevant data all too often is not available. With its Smart Cities Mission, the Indian government places great importance on the future developments of Indian urban areas and pays tribute to the large-scale rural to urban migration. The potentials of urban remote sensing and its contribution to urban planning are discussed and related to the Indian Smart Cities Mission. A case study is presented showing urban remote sensing based information products for the city of Ahmedabad. Resulting urban growth scenarios are presented, hotspots identified and future action alternatives proposed.

  1. Statistical downscaling and future scenario generation of temperatures for Pakistan Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kazmi, Dildar Hussain; Li, Jianping; Rasul, Ghulam; Tong, Jiang; Ali, Gohar; Cheema, Sohail Babar; Liu, Luliu; Gemmer, Marco; Fischer, Thomas

    2015-04-01

    Finer climate change information on spatial scale is required for impact studies than that presently provided by global or regional climate models. It is especially true for regions like South Asia with complex topography, coastal or island locations, and the areas of highly heterogeneous land-cover. To deal with the situation, an inexpensive method (statistical downscaling) has been adopted. Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM) employed for downscaling of daily minimum and maximum temperature data of 44 national stations for base time (1961-1990) and then the future scenarios generated up to 2099. Observed as well as Predictors (product of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) data were calibrated and tested on individual/multiple basis through linear regression. Future scenario was generated based on HadCM3 daily data for A2 and B2 story lines. The downscaled data has been tested, and it has shown a relatively strong relationship with the observed in comparison to ECHAM5 data. Generally, the southern half of the country is considered vulnerable in terms of increasing temperatures, but the results of this study projects that in future, the northern belt in particular would have a possible threat of increasing tendency in air temperature. Especially, the northern areas (hosting the third largest ice reserves after the Polar Regions), an important feeding source for Indus River, are projected to be vulnerable in terms of increasing temperatures. Consequently, not only the hydro-agricultural sector but also the environmental conditions in the area may be at risk, in future.

  2. Downscaling IPCC control run and future scenario with focus on the Barents Sea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sandø, Anne Britt; Melsom, Arne; Budgell, William Paul

    2014-07-01

    Global atmosphere-ocean general circulation models are the tool by which projections for climate changes due to radiative forcing scenarios have been produced. Further, regional atmospheric downscaling of the global models may be applied in order to evaluate the details in, e.g., temperature and precipitation patterns. Similarly, detailed regional information is needed in order to assess the implications of future climate change for the marine ecosystems. However, regional results for climate change in the ocean are sparse. We present the results for the circulation and hydrography of the Barents Sea from the ocean component of two global models and from a corresponding pair of regional model configurations. The global models used are the GISS AOM and the NCAR CCSM3. The ROMS ocean model is used for the regional downscaling of these results (ROMS-G and ROMS-N configurations, respectively). This investigation was undertaken in order to shed light on two questions that are essential in the context of regional ocean projections: (1) How should a regional model be set up in order to take advantage of the results from global projections; (2) What limits to quality in the results of regional models are imposed by the quality of global models? We approached the first question by initializing the ocean model in the control simulation by a realistic ocean analysis and specifying air-sea fluxes according to the results from the global models. For the projection simulation, the global models' oceanic anomalies from their control simulation results were added upon initialization. Regarding the second question, the present set of simulations includes regional downscalings of the present-day climate as well as projected climate change. Thus, we study separately how downscaling changes the results in the control climate case, and how scenario results are changed. For the present-day climate, we find that downscaling reduces the differences in the Barents Sea between the original

  3. Establishing the common patterns of future tropospheric ozone under diverse climate change scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jimenez-Guerrero, Pedro; Gómez-Navarro, Juan J.; Jerez, Sonia; Lorente-Plazas, Raquel; Baro, Rocio; Montávez, Juan P.

    2013-04-01

    The impacts of climate change on air quality may affect long-term air quality planning. However, the policies aimed at improving air quality in the EU directives have not accounted for the variations in the climate. Climate change alone influences future air quality through modifications of gas-phase chemistry, transport, removal, and natural emissions. As such, the aim of this work is to check whether the projected changes in gas-phase air pollution over Europe depends on the scenario driving the regional simulation. For this purpose, two full-transient regional climate change-air quality projections for the first half of the XXI century (1991-2050) have been carried out with MM5+CHIMERE system, including A2 and B2 SRES scenarios. Experiments span the periods 1971-2000, as a reference, and 2071-2100, as future enhanced greenhouse gas and aerosol scenarios (SRES A2 and B2). The atmospheric simulations have a horizontal resolution of 25 km and 23 vertical layers up to 100 mb, and were driven by ECHO-G global climate model outputs. The analysis focuses on the connection between meteorological and air quality variables. Our simulations suggest that the modes of variability for tropospheric ozone and their main precursors hardly change under different SRES scenarios. The effect of changing scenarios has to be sought in the intensity of the changing signal, rather than in the spatial structure of the variation patterns, since the correlation between the spatial patterns of variability in A2 and B2 simulation is r > 0.75 for all gas-phase pollutants included in this study. In both cases, full-transient simulations indicate an enhanced enhanced chemical activity under future scenarios. The causes for tropospheric ozone variations have to be sought in a multiplicity of climate factors, such as increased temperature, different distribution of precipitation patterns across Europe, increased photolysis of primary and secondary pollutants due to lower cloudiness, etc

  4. Future Diet Scenarios and Their Effect on Regional and Global Biofuel Potential

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gregg, J.; hvid, A.

    2012-04-01

    Food production has been one of the most significant ways in which humans have changed the surface of the Earth. It is projected that further intensification of agriculture will be necessary to meet a growing population and the increased demand for calories from animal products. This would require substantially more land and resources devoted to animal production. However, globally, the proportion of per capita caloric intake from animal to total caloric intake has remained relatively constant for the last 50 years at slightly above 15%. Nevertheless, there are large discrepancies across regions and through time. For example, northern European countries derive over 30% of calories from animal products, while India is under 10%; between 1961 and 2007, China's per capita consumption of animal calories has increased by over a factor of ten, while in the US, animal calorie consumption has remained constant. In general, per capita consumption of animal products is lower in developing countries than in developed countries, and it is commonly assumed that future animal product consumption will increase as developing countries become wealthier. On the other hand, wealthier countries are remaining constant or even decreasing their proportional consumption of animal calories, and this could be a different way that future diets may evolve. We create different future scenarios for calorie demand from vegetal products, beef, sheep and goat, pork, poultry, and dairy based on historical national trends and estimated income elasticities for these various food products. The extreme scenarios are one in which the world evolves to a highly vegetal calorie diet and, on the other extreme, one in which the world evolves to diets with high meat consumption. Intermediate scenarios include projections of current trends and one in which the world moves to a healthy balanced diet given current recommendations. Using DTU-GCAM, and global integrated assessment model with an included land use

  5. Future Diet Scenarios and Their Effect on Regional and Global Land Use

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gregg, J. S.; Hvid, A.

    2011-12-01

    Food production has been one of the most significant ways in which humans have changed the surface of the Earth. It is projected that further intensification of agriculture will be necessary to meet a growing population and the increased demand for calories from animal products. This would require substantially more land and resources devoted to animal production. However, globally, the proportion of per capita caloric intake from animal to total caloric intake has remained relatively constant for the last 50 years at slightly above 15%. Nevertheless, there are large discrepancies across regions and through time. For example, northern European countries derive over 30% of calories from animal products, while India is under 10%; between 1961 and 2007, China's per capita consumption of animal calories has increased by over a factor of ten, while in the US, animal calorie consumption has remained constant. In general, per capita consumption of animal products is lower in developing countries than in developed countries, and it is commonly assumed that future animal product consumption will increase as developing countries become wealthier. On the other hand, wealthier countries are remaining constant or even decreasing their proportional consumption of animal calories, and this could be a different way that future diets may evolve. We create different future scenarios for calorie demand from vegetal products, beef, sheep and goat, pork, poultry, and dairy based on historical national trends and estimated income elasticities for these various food products. The extreme scenarios are one in which the world evolves to a highly vegetal calorie diet and, on the other extreme, one in which the world evolves to diets with high meat consumption. Intermediate scenarios include projections of current trends and one in which the world moves to a healthy balanced diet given current recommendations. Using DTU-GCAM, and global integrated assessment model with an included land use

  6. Divergent projections of future land use in the United States arising from different models and scenarios

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sohl, Terry L.; Wimberly, Michael; Radeloff, Volker C.; Theobald, David M.; Sleeter, Benjamin M.

    2016-01-01

    A variety of land-use and land-cover (LULC) models operating at scales from local to global have been developed in recent years, including a number of models that provide spatially explicit, multi-class LULC projections for the conterminous United States. This diversity of modeling approaches raises the question: how consistent are their projections of future land use? We compared projections from six LULC modeling applications for the United States and assessed quantitative, spatial, and conceptual inconsistencies. Each set of projections provided multiple scenarios covering a period from roughly 2000 to 2050. Given the unique spatial, thematic, and temporal characteristics of each set of projections, individual projections were aggregated to a common set of basic, generalized LULC classes (i.e., cropland, pasture, forest, range, and urban) and summarized at the county level across the conterminous United States. We found very little agreement in projected future LULC trends and patterns among the different models. Variability among scenarios for a given model was generally lower than variability among different models, in terms of both trends in the amounts of basic LULC classes and their projected spatial patterns. Even when different models assessed the same purported scenario, model projections varied substantially. Projections of agricultural trends were often far above the maximum historical amounts, raising concerns about the realism of the projections. Comparisons among models were hindered by major discrepancies in categorical definitions, and suggest a need for standardization of historical LULC data sources. To capture a broader range of uncertainties, ensemble modeling approaches are also recommended. However, the vast inconsistencies among LULC models raise questions about the theoretical and conceptual underpinnings of current modeling approaches. Given the substantial effects that land-use change can have on ecological and societal processes, there

  7. Future Geopolitical Scenarios, Their Dominant Schools of Thought and the Impact Thereof on the Promotion of Deep Space Exploration

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ceyssens, F.; Driesen, M.; Wouters, K.

    Scenario planning is a method in which key - but uncontrollable - driving forces that shape the future are identified and narrated in a scenario which is then used for strategic planning. The intention of this paper is to formulate recommended strategies for advocating deep space exploration projects in a range of possible scenarios. This paper is based on future scenarios from two well-known groups in the field of futures studies, the US National Intelligence Council and the Global Policy Group lead by the Tellus Institute (Boston) and the Stockholm Environment Institute. First, the scenarios are briefly described together with the dominant philosophical and political schools of thought they would entail. Then, conclusions are drawn about the challenges and opportunities for deep space exploration projects in each of the scenarios. Also, the preferred strategies that advocates of deep space exploration could use to promote such projects in each of the respective scenarios are discussed. In the tradition of scenario planning works, the paper ends with a few written-out narratives of a potential future.

  8. Climate change in the Iberian Upwelling System: a numerical study using GCM downscaling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cordeiro Pires, Ana; Nolasco, Rita; Rocha, Alfredo; Ramos, Alexandre M.; Dubert, Jesus

    2016-07-01

    The present work aims at evaluating the impacts of a climate change scenario on the hydrography and dynamics of the Iberian Upwelling System. Using regional ocean model configurations, the study domain is forced with three different sets of surface fields: a climatological dataset to provide the control run; a dataset obtained from averaging several global climate models (GCM) that integrate the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) models used in climate scenarios, for the same period as the climatological dataset; and this same dataset but for a future period, retrieved from the IPCC A2 climate scenario. After ascertaining that the ocean run forced with the GCM dataset for the present compared reasonably well with the climatologically forced run, the results for the future run (relative to the respective present run) show a general temperature increase (from +0.5 to +3 °C) and salinity decrease (from -0.1 to -0.3), particularly in the upper 100-200 m, although these differences depend strongly on season and distance to the coast. There is also strengthening of the SST cross-shore gradient associated to upwelling, which causes narrowing and shallowing of the upwelling jet. This effect is contrary to the meridional wind stress intensification that is also observed, which would tend to strengthen the upwelling jet.

  9. ESP v1.0: Methodology for Exploring Emission Impacts of Future Scenarios in the United States

    EPA Science Inventory

    This article presents a methodology for creating anthropogenic emission inventories that can be used to simulate future regional air quality. The Emission Scenario Projection (ESP) methodology focuses on energy production and use, the principal sources of many air pollutants. Emi...

  10. Response of the GISS GCM to prescribed forcings

    SciTech Connect

    Borenstein, S.R. |

    1996-12-31

    The Global Circulation Model or GCM is a computer simulation of the Earth`s climate, used to predict future weather and climate from present conditions and known forcings. The GCM is a Cartesian grid-point model, run at a resolution of 4{degree}x5{degree} in the horizontal (latitude x longitude) and nine-layers in the vertical. The crucial question is: How accurately and reliably can this be done, given the extreme complication and non-linearity of the system being modelled as well as the intrinsically chaotic nature of the climate. One of the long term goals of the GCM is to predict the effect of anthropogenic greenhouse gases on the future climate. Comparative images representing the model simulations and observations of surface temperatures and precipitation are shown. By comparing the model data to real world observations, the GCM can be evaluated, criticized and ultimately modified to produce more realistic results.

  11. Statistical downscaling of GCM simulations to streamflow using relevance vector machine

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ghosh, Subimal; Mujumdar, P. P.

    2008-01-01

    General circulation models (GCMs), the climate models often used in assessing the impact of climate change, operate on a coarse scale and thus the simulation results obtained from GCMs are not particularly useful in a comparatively smaller river basin scale hydrology. The article presents a methodology of statistical downscaling based on sparse Bayesian learning and Relevance Vector Machine (RVM) to model streamflow at river basin scale for monsoon period (June, July, August, September) using GCM simulated climatic variables. NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data have been used for training the model to establish a statistical relationship between streamflow and climatic variables. The relationship thus obtained is used to project the future streamflow from GCM simulations. The statistical methodology involves principal component analysis, fuzzy clustering and RVM. Different kernel functions are used for comparison purpose. The model is applied to Mahanadi river basin in India. The results obtained using RVM are compared with those of state-of-the-art Support Vector Machine (SVM) to present the advantages of RVMs over SVMs. A decreasing trend is observed for monsoon streamflow of Mahanadi due to high surface warming in future, with the CCSR/NIES GCM and B2 scenario.

  12. Spatial forecasting of switchgrass productivity under current and future climate change scenarios.

    PubMed

    Behrman, Kathrine D; Kiniry, James R; Winchell, Michael; Juenger, Thomas E; Keitt, Timothy H

    2013-01-01

    Evaluating the potential of alternative energy crops across large geographic regions, as well as over time, is a necessary component to determining if biofuel production is feasible and sustainable in the face of growing production demands and climatic change. Switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.), a native perennial herbaceous grass, is a promising candidate for cellulosic feedstock production. In this study, current and future (from 2080 to 2090) productivity is estimated across the central and eastern United States using ALMANAC, a mechanistic model that simulates plant growth over time. The ALMANAC model was parameterized for representative ecotypes of switchgrass. Our results indicate substantial variation in switchgrass productivity both within regions and over time. States along the Gulf Coast, southern Atlantic Coast, and in the East North Central Midwest have the highest current biomass potential. However, these areas also contain critical wetland habitat necessary for the maintenance of biodiversity and agricultural lands necessary for food production. The southern United States is predicted to have the largest decrease in future biomass production. The Great Plains are expected to experience large increases in productivity by 2080-2090 due to climate change. In general, regions where future temperature and precipitation are predicted to increase are also where larger future biomass production is expected. In contrast, regions that show a future decrease in precipitation are associated with smaller future biomass production. Switchgrass appears to be a promising biofuel crop for the central and eastern United States, with local biomass predicted to be high (>10 Mg/ha) for approximately 50% of the area studied for each climate scenario. In order to minimize land conversion and loss of biodiversity, areas that currently have and maintain high productivity under climate change should be targeted for their long-term growth potential.

  13. The impact of future land use scenarios on runoff volumes in the Muskegon River Watershed.

    PubMed

    Ray, Deepak K; Duckles, Jonah M; Pijanowski, Bryan C

    2010-09-01

    In this article we compared the response of surface water runoff to a storm event for different rates of urbanization, reforestation and riparian buffer setbacks across forty subwatersheds of the Muskegon River Watershed located in Michigan, USA. We also made these comparisons for several forecasted and one historical land use scenarios (over 140 years). Future land use scenarios to 2040 for forest regrowth, urbanization rates and stream setbacks were developed using the Land Transformation Model (LTM). Historical land use information, from 1900 at 5-year time step intervals, was created using a Backcast land use change model configured using artificial neural network and driven by agriculture and housing census information. We show that (1) controlling the rate of development is the most effective policy option to reduce runoff; (2) establishing setbacks along the mainstem are not as effective as controlling urban growth; (3) reforestation can abate some of the runoff effects from urban growth but not all; (4) land use patterns of the 1970s produced the least amount of runoff in most cases in the Muskegon River Watershed when compared to land use maps from 1900 to 2040; and, (5) future land use patterns here not always lead to increased (worse) runoff than the past. We found that while ten of the subwatersheds contained futures that were worse than any past land use configuration, twenty-five (62.5%) of the subwatersheds produced the greatest amount of runoff in 1900, shortly after the entire watershed was clear-cut. One third (14/40) of the subwatersheds contained the minimum amount of runoff in the 1960s and 1970s, a period when forest amounts were greatest and urban amounts relatively small.

  14. The impact of future land use scenarios on runoff volumes in the Muskegon River Watershed.

    PubMed

    Ray, Deepak K; Duckles, Jonah M; Pijanowski, Bryan C

    2010-09-01

    In this article we compared the response of surface water runoff to a storm event for different rates of urbanization, reforestation and riparian buffer setbacks across forty subwatersheds of the Muskegon River Watershed located in Michigan, USA. We also made these comparisons for several forecasted and one historical land use scenarios (over 140 years). Future land use scenarios to 2040 for forest regrowth, urbanization rates and stream setbacks were developed using the Land Transformation Model (LTM). Historical land use information, from 1900 at 5-year time step intervals, was created using a Backcast land use change model configured using artificial neural network and driven by agriculture and housing census information. We show that (1) controlling the rate of development is the most effective policy option to reduce runoff; (2) establishing setbacks along the mainstem are not as effective as controlling urban growth; (3) reforestation can abate some of the runoff effects from urban growth but not all; (4) land use patterns of the 1970s produced the least amount of runoff in most cases in the Muskegon River Watershed when compared to land use maps from 1900 to 2040; and, (5) future land use patterns here not always lead to increased (worse) runoff than the past. We found that while ten of the subwatersheds contained futures that were worse than any past land use configuration, twenty-five (62.5%) of the subwatersheds produced the greatest amount of runoff in 1900, shortly after the entire watershed was clear-cut. One third (14/40) of the subwatersheds contained the minimum amount of runoff in the 1960s and 1970s, a period when forest amounts were greatest and urban amounts relatively small. PMID:20700591

  15. Putting watershed restoration in context: alternative future scenarios influence management outcomes.

    PubMed

    Fullerton, A H; Steel, E A; Caras, Y; Sheer, M; Olson, P; Kaje, J

    2009-01-01

    Predicting effects of habitat restoration is an important step for recovery of imperiled anadromous salmonid populations. Habitat above three major hydropower dams in the Lewis River watershed, southwestern Washington, USA, will soon become accessible to anadromous fish. We used multiple models to estimate habitat conditions above dams and fish population responses. Additionally, we used scenario planning to predict how habitat and fish will respond to potential future trends in land use due to human population growth and riparian conservation policies. Finally, we developed a hypothetical management strategy (i.e., a set of prioritized restoration projects in specific locations within the watershed) as an example of how a fixed amount of restoration funds might be spent to enhance the success of reintroducing fish above dams. We then compared predicted outcomes from this new strategy to those of six previously modeled strategies. We estimated how the choice of the best management strategy might differ among alternative future scenarios. Results suggest that dam passage will provide access to large amounts of high-quality habitat that will benefit fish populations. Moreover, conservation of existing riparian areas, if implemented, has the potential to improve conditions to a much greater extent than restoration strategies examined, despite expected urban growth. We found that the relative performance of management strategies shifted when fish were allowed to migrate above dams, but less so among alternative futures examined. We discuss how predicted outcomes from these seven hypothetical management strategies could be used for developing an on-the-ground strategy to address a real management situation. PMID:19323185

  16. Putting watershed restoration in context: alternative future scenarios influence management outcomes.

    PubMed

    Fullerton, A H; Steel, E A; Caras, Y; Sheer, M; Olson, P; Kaje, J

    2009-01-01

    Predicting effects of habitat restoration is an important step for recovery of imperiled anadromous salmonid populations. Habitat above three major hydropower dams in the Lewis River watershed, southwestern Washington, USA, will soon become accessible to anadromous fish. We used multiple models to estimate habitat conditions above dams and fish population responses. Additionally, we used scenario planning to predict how habitat and fish will respond to potential future trends in land use due to human population growth and riparian conservation policies. Finally, we developed a hypothetical management strategy (i.e., a set of prioritized restoration projects in specific locations within the watershed) as an example of how a fixed amount of restoration funds might be spent to enhance the success of reintroducing fish above dams. We then compared predicted outcomes from this new strategy to those of six previously modeled strategies. We estimated how the choice of the best management strategy might differ among alternative future scenarios. Results suggest that dam passage will provide access to large amounts of high-quality habitat that will benefit fish populations. Moreover, conservation of existing riparian areas, if implemented, has the potential to improve conditions to a much greater extent than restoration strategies examined, despite expected urban growth. We found that the relative performance of management strategies shifted when fish were allowed to migrate above dams, but less so among alternative futures examined. We discuss how predicted outcomes from these seven hypothetical management strategies could be used for developing an on-the-ground strategy to address a real management situation.

  17. Modeling future scenarios of light attenuation and potential seagrass success in a eutrophic estuary

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    del Barrio, Pilar; Ganju, Neil K.; Aretxabaleta, Alfredo L.; Hayn, Melanie; García, Andrés; Howarth, Robert W.

    2014-01-01

    Estuarine eutrophication has led to numerous ecological changes, including loss of seagrass beds. One potential cause of these losses is a reduction in light availability due to increased attenuation by phytoplankton. Future sea level rise will also tend to reduce light penetration and modify seagrass habitat. In the present study, we integrate a spectral irradiance model into a biogeochemical model coupled to the Regional Ocean Model System (ROMS). It is linked to a bio-optical seagrass model to assess potential seagrass habitat in a eutrophic estuary under future nitrate loading and sea-level rise scenarios. The model was applied to West Falmouth Harbor, a shallow estuary located on Cape Cod (Massachusetts) where nitrate from groundwater has led to eutrophication and seagrass loss in landward portions of the estuary. Measurements of chlorophyll, turbidity, light attenuation, and seagrass coverage were used to assess the model accuracy. Mean chlorophyll based on uncalibrated in-situ fluorometry varied from 28 μg L−1 at the landward-most site to 6.5 μg L−1 at the seaward site, while light attenuation ranged from 0.86 to 0.45 m-1. The model reproduced the spatial variability in chlorophyll and light attenuation with RMS errors of 3.72 μg L−1 and 0.07 m-1 respectively. Scenarios of future nitrate reduction and sea-level rise suggest an improvement in light climate in the landward basin with a 75% reduction in nitrate loading. This coupled model may be useful to assess habitat availability changes due to eutrophication and sediment resuspension and fully considers spatial variability on the tidal timescale.

  18. Methodology To Define Drought Management Scenarios Based On Accumulated Future Projections Of Risk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Haro-Monteagudo, David; Solera-Solera, Abel; Andreu-Álvarez, Joaquín

    2014-05-01

    Drought is a serious threat to many water resources systems in the world. Especially to those in which the equilibrium between resources availability and water uses is very fragile, making that deviation below normality compromises the capacity of the system to cope with all the demands and environmental requirements. Since droughts are not isolated events but instead they develop through time in what could be considered a creeping behavior, it is very difficult to determine when an episode starts and how long will it last. Because this is a major concern for water managers and society in general, scientific research has strived to develop indices that allow evaluating the risk of a drought event occurrence. These indices often have as basis previous and current state variables of the system that combined between them supply decision making responsible with an indication of the risk of being in a situation of drought, normally through the definition of a drought scenario situation. While this way of proceeding has found to be effective in many systems, there are cases in which indicators systems fail to define the appropriate on-going drought scenario early enough to start measures that allowed to minimize the possible impacts. This is the case, for example, of systems with high seasonal precipitation variability. The use of risk assessment models to evaluate future possible states of the system becomes handy in cases like the previous one, although they are not limited to such systems. We present a method to refine the drought scenario definition within a water resources system. To implement this methodology, we use a risk assessment model generalized to water resources systems based in the stochastic generation of multiple possible future streamflows generation and the simulation of the system from a Monte-Carlo approach. We do this assessment every month of the year up to the end of the hydrologic year that normally corresponds with the end of the irrigation

  19. Global Tree Range Shifts Under Forecasts from Two Alternative GCMs Using Two Future Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hargrove, W. W.; Kumar, J.; Potter, K. M.; Hoffman, F. M.

    2013-12-01

    Global shifts in the environmentally suitable ranges of 215 tree species were predicted under forecasts from two GCMs (the Parallel Climate Model (PCM), and the Hadley Model), each under two IPCC future climatic scenarios (A1 and B1), each at two future dates (2050 and 2100). The analysis considers all global land surface at a resolution of 4 km2. A statistical multivariate clustering procedure was used to quantitatively delineate 30 thousand environmentally homogeneous ecoregions across present and 8 potential future global locations at once, using global maps of 17 environmental characteristics describing temperature, precipitation, soils, topography and solar insolation. Presence of each tree species on Forest Inventory Analysis (FIA) plots and in Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) samples was used to select a subset of suitable ecoregions from the full set of 30 thousand. Once identified, this suitable subset of ecoregions was compared to the known current range of the tree species under present conditions. Predicted present ranges correspond well with current understanding for all but a few of the 215 tree species. The subset of suitable ecoregions for each tree species can then be tracked into the future to determine whether the suitable home range for this species remains the same, moves, grows, shrinks, or disappears under each model/scenario combination. Occurrence and growth performance measurements for various tree species across the U.S. are limited to FIA plots. We present a new, general-purpose empirical imputation method which associates sparse measurements of dependent variables with particular multivariate clustered combinations of the independent variables, and then estimates values for unmeasured clusters, based on directional proximity in multidimensional data space, at both the cluster and map-cell levels of resolution. Using Associative Clustering, we scaled up the FIA point measurements into contonuous maps that show the expected

  20. Predicting future changes in Muskegon River Watershed game fish distributions under future land cover alteration and climate change scenarios

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Steen, Paul J.; Wiley, Michael J.; Schaeffer, Jeffrey S.

    2010-01-01

    Future alterations in land cover and climate are likely to cause substantial changes in the ranges of fish species. Predictive distribution models are an important tool for assessing the probability that these changes will cause increases or decreases in or the extirpation of species. Classification tree models that predict the probability of game fish presence were applied to the streams of the Muskegon River watershed, Michigan. The models were used to study three potential future scenarios: (1) land cover change only, (2) land cover change and a 3°C increase in air temperature by 2100, and (3) land cover change and a 5°C increase in air temperature by 2100. The analysis indicated that the expected change in air temperature and subsequent change in water temperatures would result in the decline of coldwater fish in the Muskegon watershed by the end of the 21st century while cool- and warmwater species would significantly increase their ranges. The greatest decline detected was a 90% reduction in the probability that brook trout Salvelinus fontinalis would occur in Bigelow Creek. The greatest increase was a 276% increase in the probability that northern pike Esox lucius would occur in the Middle Branch River. Changes in land cover are expected to cause large changes in a few fish species, such as walleye Sander vitreus and Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha, but not to drive major changes in species composition. Managers can alter stream environmental conditions to maximize the probability that species will reside in particular stream reaches through application of the classification tree models. Such models represent a good way to predict future changes, as they give quantitative estimates of the n-dimensional niches for particular species.

  1. Ozone concentrations and damage for realistic future European climate and air quality scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hendriks, Carlijn; Forsell, Nicklas; Kiesewetter, Gregor; Schaap, Martijn; Schöpp, Wolfgang

    2016-11-01

    Ground level ozone poses a significant threat to human health from air pollution in the European Union. While anthropogenic emissions of precursor substances (NOx, NMVOC, CH4) are regulated by EU air quality legislation and will decrease further in the future, the emissions of biogenic NMVOC (mainly isoprene) may increase significantly in the coming decades if short-rotation coppice plantations are expanded strongly to meet the increased biofuel demand resulting from the EU decarbonisation targets. This study investigates the competing effects of anticipated trends in land use change, anthropogenic ozone precursor emissions and climate change on European ground level ozone concentrations and related health and environmental impacts until 2050. The work is based on a consistent set of energy consumption scenarios that underlie current EU climate and air quality policy proposals: a current legislation case, and an ambitious decarbonisation case. The Greenhouse Gas-Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS) integrated assessment model was used to calculate air pollutant emissions for these scenarios, while land use change because of bioenergy demand was calculated by the Global Biosphere Model (GLOBIOM). These datasets were fed into the chemistry transport model LOTOS-EUROS to calculate the impact on ground level ozone concentrations. Health damage because of high ground level ozone concentrations is projected to decline significantly towards 2030 and 2050 under current climate conditions for both energy scenarios. Damage to plants is also expected to decrease but to a smaller extent. The projected change in anthropogenic ozone precursor emissions is found to have a larger impact on ozone damage than land use change. The increasing effect of a warming climate (+2-5 °C across Europe in summer) on ozone concentrations and associated health damage, however, might be higher than the reduction achieved by cutting back European ozone precursor emissions. Global

  2. Suitability of European climate for the Asian tiger mosquito Aedes albopictus: recent trends and future scenarios

    PubMed Central

    Caminade, Cyril; Medlock, Jolyon M.; Ducheyne, Els; McIntyre, K. Marie; Leach, Steve; Baylis, Matthew; Morse, Andrew P.

    2012-01-01

    The Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) is an invasive species that has the potential to transmit infectious diseases such as dengue and chikungunya fever. Using high-resolution observations and regional climate model scenarios for the future, we investigated the suitability of Europe for A. albopictus using both recent climate and future climate conditions. The results show that southern France, northern Italy, the northern coast of Spain, the eastern coast of the Adriatic Sea and western Turkey were climatically suitable areas for the establishment of the mosquito during the 1960–1980s. Over the last two decades, climate conditions have become more suitable for the mosquito over central northwestern Europe (Benelux, western Germany) and the Balkans, while they have become less suitable over southern Spain. Similar trends are likely in the future, with an increased risk simulated over northern Europe and slightly decreased risk over southern Europe. These distribution shifts are related to wetter and warmer conditions favouring the overwintering of A. albopictus in the north, and drier and warmer summers that might limit its southward expansion. PMID:22535696

  3. Evaluation of power outages in Connecticut during hypothetical future Hurricane Sandy scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wanik, D. W.; Anagnostou, E. N.; Astitha, M.; Frediani, M. E.; Yang, J.

    2015-12-01

    Reliable electric power is a staple of our modern society.The purpose of this work was to evaluate the occurrence of power outages under more intense, future Hurricane Sandy simulations in Connecticut. In addition, we also evaluated how many crews would be necessary to restore power in 7 days, and how different vegetation scenarios might contribute to a decrease in outages. We trained five pairwise models on each current Sandy runs (2012) as training using the random forest model (each validated using 10-fold cross-validation), and used each future Sandy run as an independent test. We predict that a future Sandy would have 2.5x as many outages as current Sandy, which would require 3.23x as many crews as current Sandy to restore power in 7 days. We also found that increased vegetation management might decrease outages, which has implications for both fair-weather and storm days of all types (i.e. blizzards, thunderstorms, ice storms). Although we have only evaluated outages for electric distribution networks, there are many other types (water supply, wastewater, telecommunications) that would likely benefit from an analysis of this type. In addition, given that we have the weather simulations already processed within our 2-km weather simulation domain, we would like to expand our vulnerability analyses to surrounding utilities in New Jersey, New York, Rhode Island, Massachusetts and New Hampshire to facilitate regional coordination among electric distribution networks.

  4. The Future of Public Health Informatics: Alternative Scenarios and Recommended Strategies

    PubMed Central

    Edmunds, Margo; Thorpe, Lorna; Sepulveda, Martin; Bezold, Clem; Ross, David A.

    2014-01-01

    Background: In October 2013, the Public Health Informatics Institute (PHII) and Institute for Alternative Futures (IAF) convened a multidisciplinary group of experts to evaluate forces shaping public health informatics (PHI) in the United States, with the aim of identifying upcoming challenges and opportunities. The PHI workshop was funded by the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation as part of its larger strategic planning process for public health and primary care. Workshop Context: During the two-day workshop, nine experts from the public and private sectors analyzed and discussed the implications of four scenarios regarding the United States economy, health care system, information technology (IT) sector, and their potential impacts on public health in the next 10 years, by 2023. Workshop participants considered the potential role of the public health sector in addressing population health challenges in each scenario, and then identified specific informatics goals and strategies needed for the sector to succeed in this role. Recommendations and Conclusion: Participants developed recommendations for the public health informatics field and for public health overall in the coming decade. These included the need to rely more heavily on intersectoral collaborations across public and private sectors, to improve data infrastructure and workforce capacity at all levels of the public health enterprise, to expand the evidence base regarding effectiveness of informatics-based public health initiatives, and to communicate strategically with elected officials and other key stakeholders regarding the potential for informatics-based solutions to have an impact on population health. PMID:25848630

  5. Past and future climatic changes in the Mediterranean area under various global warming scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guiot, Joel

    2016-04-01

    Past climatic changes and their impacts on the natural vegetation can be used as a reference for the climatic changes projected by ensembles of climate models for the 21st century. The study of the Holocene shows that he Mediterranean has known several precipitation falls equivalent to what is projected for the end of the 21st century. These droughts were often correlated with the decline or collapse of Mediterranean civilisations, particularly in the eastern Basin. Nevertheless, while the past droughts were not characterized by particularly high temperature, future temperature increase will more or less significant according to the scenario. This will much intensify the water deficit for natural and artificial ecosystems. As a consequence, the projected climatic change can be considered as unprecedented during the last 10,000 years. We explore how they compare with the various scenarios corresponding to a 1.5°C, 2°C and 3°C global warming according to the pre-industrial mean temperature, and we will determine the degree of dissimilarity of the Mediterranean climate under these global thresholds according to the long term climate variability.

  6. Megacity impacts on global air quality under present and future scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Butler, T.; Denier Van Der Gon, H.; Stock, Z.; Russo, M.; Lawrence, M. G.

    2011-12-01

    Over half of the population of the world now lives in cities, with the global rate of urbanisation expected to continue well into the 21st century. A significant fraction of this urban population lives in so- called "Megacities", which are commonly defined as urban areas containing more than 10 million people, although there is no formally accepted definition. These shifts in the distribution of population and economic activity are expected to lead to changes in the emissions of atmospheric pollutants, which in turn could be expected to lead to changes in air quality within Megacities, in the regions surrounding Megacities, and perhaps also at the global scale. A global model of atmospheric chemistry and transport is an essential part of any integrated assessment of the effects of megacities at these scales. Global models require global emission inventories as input, along with appropriate emission scenarios. Unfortunately there are very few global emission scenarios available which are explicitly designed to explore differences in projected rates of urbanisation. In this work we examine the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) emissions projections which are freely available as part of CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project for the IPCC AR5 report). We compare the future projections of Megacity emissions from four different RCP datasets and describe strategies of adapting these RCP projections for the study of Megacity impacts on air quality. Results of global chemical transport model studies examining these projections will also be presented.

  7. Future impacts of nitrogen deposition and climate change scenarios on forest crown defoliation.

    PubMed

    De Marco, Alessandra; Proietti, Chiara; Cionni, Irene; Fischer, Richard; Screpanti, Augusto; Vitale, Marcello

    2014-11-01

    Defoliation is an indicator for forest health in response to several stressors including air pollutants, and one of the most important parameters monitored in the International Cooperative Programme on Assessment and Monitoring of Air Pollution Effects on Forests (ICP Forests). The study aims to estimate crown defoliation in 2030, under three climate and one nitrogen deposition scenarios, based on evaluation of the most important factors (meteorological, nitrogen deposition and chemical soil parameters) affecting defoliation of twelve European tree species. The combination of favourable climate and nitrogen fertilization in the more adaptive species induces a generalized decrease of defoliation. On the other hand, severe climate change and drought are main causes of increase in defoliation in Quercus ilex and Fagus sylvatica, especially in Mediterranean area. Our results provide information on regional distribution of future defoliation, an important knowledge for identifying policies to counteract negative impacts of climate change and air pollution.

  8. France-wide future evolution of discharges for the next decades: a multi-RCP/GCM/hydrological model and calibration exercise

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thirel, Guillaume; Nicolas, Madeleine; Beersma, Jules

    2015-04-01

    Due to complex interactions between atmosphere, vegetation, oceans, land and human beings, climate is continually evolving. The last IPCC report highlighted that by the end of the 21st century, dramatic climate modifications may occur: in Europe, the temperature is expected to increase by several degrees, and the evolution of precipitation is more uncertain. These changes will impact the water cycle, and as a consequence river discharges, which can potentially impact economical, industrial and touristic activities as well as the ecosphere. In order to provide new insights for hydrology in France, we propose to assess the impact of climate change on discharge module, high and low flows for over 800 river points in France. For this, the last CMIP5 projections are used for the periods 2021-2050 and 2071-2100. This country-wide evaluation, a compromise between basin-based and continental studies usually performed in literature, is of the utmost importance due to the numerous interconnections of water uses inside France. For this work, the 4 IPCC Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) were utilized to drive part or all of 27 Global Circulation Models (GCMs) or versions of GCMs, for which one to ten different runs were available. This represents a total of 183 climatic projections that were then downscaled using the Advanced Delta Change (ADC) method, a statistical method calibrated between a past reference period and the two future periods. In this study, we applied the ADC to an 8x8 km 52-year meteorological reanalysis available over France. Six global conceptual hydrological models (GR4J, GR5J, GR6J, MORD6, TOPMO, HBV0) were used to produce the hydrological projections, allowing the representation of uncertainty in hydrological modelling. Moreover, one of the hydrological models was calibrated with several objective functions and over contrasted climatic periods. By having several methods or models for every step (except regarding the downscaling method), we

  9. Evaluation of alternative future energy scenarios for Brazil using an energy mix model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Coelho, Maysa Joppert

    The purpose of this study is to model and assess the performance and the emissions impacts of electric energy technologies in Brazil, based on selected economic scenarios, for a time frame of 40 years, taking the year of 1995 as a base year. A Base scenario has been developed, for each of three economic development projections, based upon a sectoral analysis. Data regarding the characteristics of over 300 end-use technologies and 400 energy conversion technologies have been collected. The stand-alone MARKAL technology-based energy-mix model, first developed at Brookhaven National Laboratory, was applied to a base case study and five alternative case studies, for each economic scenario. The alternative case studies are: (1) minimum increase in the thermoelectric contribution to the power production system of 20 percent after 2010; (2) extreme values for crude oil price; (3) minimum increase in the renewable technologies contribution to the power production system of 20 percent after 2010; (4) uncertainty on the cost of future renewable conversion technologies; and (5) model is forced to use the natural gas plants committed to be built in the country. Results such as the distribution of fuel used for power generation, electricity demand across economy sectors, total CO2 emissions from burning fossil fuels for power generation, shadow price (marginal cost) of technologies, and others, are evaluated and compared to the Base scenarios previous established. Among some key findings regarding the Brazilian energy system it may be inferred that: (1) diesel technologies are estimated to be the most cost-effective thermal technology in the country; (2) wind technology is estimated to be the most cost-effective technology to be used when a minimum share of renewables is imposed to the system; and (3) hydroelectric technologies present the highest cost/benefit relation among all conversion technologies considered. These results are subject to the limitations of key input

  10. A1B scenario simulations of future natural snow conditions in Tyrol and Styria (Austrian Alps)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Strasser, U.; Marke, T.; Hanzer, F.; Ragg, H.; Kleindienst, H.; Wilcke, R.; Gobiet, A.

    2012-04-01

    We use four different realizations of the IPCC A1B emission scenario based climate simulations provided by the ENSEMBLES project for the study regions Tyrol and Styria. They represent average as well as above average cold/warm and wet/dry conditions in the winter half year (November to April). The scenario and control run simulations were downscaled and error corrected to station locations with a quantile based empirical-statistical method on a daily time basis. To provide 3-hourly meteorological snow model input data, diurnal variations have been extracted from uncorrected RCM simulations to disaggregate the downscaled and bias corrected daily data. The resulting time series of meteorological parameters are spatially interpolated on the basis of existing parameter-elevation relations, and by means of a kriging technique. The control simulations (1971-2000) and scenario simulations (2021-2050) are applied as meteorological forcing for two snow models: The process based snow model AMUNDSEN includes physical descriptions of all snow relevant surface processes, is therefore transferable in space and time, and provides results at high spatial resolution (50 m). Due to its computational demands its application is limited to the two test regions Kitzbuehel (Tyrol) and Schladming (Styria). To establish a regional snow simulation, the conceptual model SNOWREG is used. The temperature-index-approach requires only few input variables, is efficient in terms of computational costs and allows a large-scale application for the provinces of Tyrol and Styria at a spatial resolution of 250 m. SNOWREG is trained by means of assimilating natural snow cover patterns provided by remotely sensed snow coverage and station recordings. Indicators for skiing conditions are used to quantify and compare changes in future natural snow conditions. The moderate increase in average area mean winter temperature (up to 2,6 °C in Tyrol and 2.3 °C in Styria) and changes in area mean winter

  11. Future changes in atmospheric condition for the baiu under RCP scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Okada, Y.; Takemi, T.; Ishikawa, H.

    2015-12-01

    This study focuses on atmospheric circulation fields during the baiu in Japan with global warming projection experimental data conducted using a 20-km mesh global atmospheric model (MRI-AGCM3.2) under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios. This model also used 4 different sea surface temperature (SST) initial conditions. Support of this dataset is provided by the Meteorological Research Institute (MRI). The baiu front indicated by the north-south gradient of moist static energy moves northward in present-day climate, whereas this northward shift in future climate simulations is very slow during May and June. In future late baiu season, the baiu front stays in the northern part of Japan even in August. As a result, the rich water vapor is transported around western Japan and the daily precipitation amount will increase in August. This northward shift of baiu front is associated with the westward expansion of the enhanced the North Pacific subtropical high (NPSH) into Japan region. However, the convective activity around northwest Pacific Ocean is inactive and is unlikely to occur convective jump (CJ). These models show that the weak trough exists in upper troposphere around Japan. Therefore, the cold advection stays in the northern part of Japan during June. In July, the front due to the strengthening of the NPSH moves northward, and then it stays until August. This feature is often found between the clustered SSTs, Cluster 2 and 3. The mean field of future August also show the inflow of rich water vapor content to Japan islands. In this model, the extreme rainfall suggested tends to almost increase over the Japan islands during future summer. This work was conducted under the Program for Risk Information on Climate Change supported by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science, and Technology-Japan (MEXT).

  12. Future impact of traffic emissions on atmospheric ozone and OH based on two scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hodnebrog, Ø.; Berntsen, T. K.; Dessens, O.; Gauss, M.; Grewe, V.; Isaksen, I. S. A.; Koffi, B.; Myhre, G.; Olivié, D.; Prather, M. J.; Stordal, F.; Szopa, S.; Tang, Q.; van Velthoven, P.; Williams, J. E.

    2012-12-01

    The future impact of traffic emissions on atmospheric ozone and OH has been investigated separately for the three sectors AIRcraft, maritime SHIPping and ROAD traffic. To reduce uncertainties we present results from an ensemble of six different atmospheric chemistry models, each simulating the atmospheric chemical composition in a possible high emission scenario (A1B), and with emissions from each transport sector reduced by 5% to estimate sensitivities. Our results are compared with optimistic future emission scenarios (B1 and B1 ACARE), presented in a companion paper, and with the recent past (year 2000). Present-day activity indicates that anthropogenic emissions so far evolve closer to A1B than the B1 scenario. As a response to expected changes in emissions, AIR and SHIP will have increased impacts on atmospheric O3 and OH in the future while the impact of ROAD traffic will decrease substantially as a result of technological improvements. In 2050, maximum aircraft-induced O3 occurs near 80° N in the UTLS region and could reach 9 ppbv in the zonal mean during summer. Emissions from ship traffic have their largest O3 impact in the maritime boundary layer with a maximum of 6 ppbv over the North Atlantic Ocean during summer in 2050. The O3 impact of road traffic emissions in the lower troposphere peaks at 3 ppbv over the Arabian Peninsula, much lower than the impact in 2000. Radiative forcing (RF) calculations show that the net effect of AIR, SHIP and ROAD combined will change from a marginal cooling of -0.44 ± 13 mW m-2 in 2000 to a relatively strong cooling of -32 ± 9.3 (B1) or -32 ± 18 mW m-2 (A1B) in 2050, when taking into account RF due to changes in O3, CH4 and CH4-induced O3. This is caused both by the enhanced negative net RF from SHIP, which will change from -19 ± 5.3 mW m-2 in 2000 to -31 ± 4.8 (B1) or -40 ± 9 mW m-2 (A1B) in 2050, and from reduced O3 warming from ROAD, which is likely to turn from a positive net RF of 12 ± 8.5 mW m-2 in 2000 to a

  13. Future impact of traffic emissions on atmospheric ozone and OH based on two scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hodnebrog, Ø.; Berntsen, T. K.; Dessens, O.; Gauss, M.; Grewe, V.; Isaksen, I. S. A.; Koffi, B.; Myhre, G.; Olivié, D.; Prather, M. J.; Stordal, F.; Szopa, S.; Tang, Q.; van Velthoven, P.; Williams, J. E.

    2012-08-01

    The future impact of traffic emissions on atmospheric ozone and OH has been investigated separately for the three sectors AIRcraft, maritime SHIPping and ROAD traffic. To reduce uncertainties we present results from an ensemble of six different atmospheric chemistry models, each simulating the atmospheric chemical composition in a possible high emission scenario (A1B), and with emissions from each transport sector reduced by 5% to estimate sensitivities. Our results are compared with optimistic future emission scenarios (B1 and B1 ACARE), presented in a companion paper, and with the recent past (year 2000). Present-day activity indicates that anthropogenic emissions so far evolve closer to A1B than the B1 scenario. As a response to expected changes in emissions, AIR and SHIP will have increased impacts on atmospheric O3 and OH in the future while the impact of ROAD traffic will decrease substantially as a result of technological improvements. In 2050, maximum aircraft-induced O3 occurs near 80° N in the UTLS region and could reach 9 ppbv in the zonal mean during summer. Emissions from ship traffic have their largest O3 impact in the maritime boundary layer with a maximum of 6 ppbv over the North Atlantic Ocean during summer in 2050. The O3 impact of road traffic emissions in the lower troposphere peaks at 3 ppbv over the Arabian Peninsula, much lower than the impact in 2000. Radiative Forcing (RF) calculations show that the net effect of AIR, SHIP and ROAD combined will change from a~marginal cooling of -0.38 ± 13 mW m-2 in 2000 to a relatively strong cooling of -32 ± 8.9 (B1) or -31 ± 20 mW m-2 (A1B) in 2050, when taking into account RF due to changes in O3, CH4 and CH4-induced O3. This is caused both by the enhanced negative net RF from SHIP, which will change from -20 ± 5.4 mW m-2 in 2000 to -31 ± 4.8 (B1) or -40 ± 11 mW m-2 (A1B) in 2050, and from reduced O3 warming from ROAD, which is likely to turn from a positive net RF of 13 ± 7.9 mW m-2 in 2000 to

  14. Hydroelectric power generation in an Alpine basin: future water-energy scenarios in a run-of-the-river plant

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bongio, Marco; Avanzi, Francesco; De Michele, Carlo

    2016-08-01

    We investigate scenarios of hydroelectric power generation for an Alpine run-of-the-river plant in 2050. To this end, we include a conversion from streamflow to energy in a hydrological model of the basin, and we introduce a set of benchmark climate scenarios to evaluate expected future production. These are a "future-like-present" scenario assuming future precipitation and temperature inputs to be statistically equivalent to those observed during the recent past at the same location, a "warmer-future" scenario, which considers an additional increase in temperature, and a "liquid-only" scenario where only liquid precipitation is admitted. In addition, two IPCC-like climatic scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) are considered. Uncertainty in glaciers' volume is accounted by initializing the hydrological model with two different inventories of glaciers. Ensemble results reveal that 1) an average decrease between -40% and -19% of hydroelectric power generation in 2050 is predicted at the plant considered (with respect to present condition); 2) an average decrease between -20% and -38% of cumulative incoming streamflow volume at the plant is also predicted, again with respect to present condition; 3) these effects are associated with a strong average decrease of the volume of glaciers (between -76% and -96%, depending on the initial value considered). However, Monte Carlo simulations show that results are also prone to high uncertainties. Implications of these results for run-of-the-river plants are discussed.

  15. Pattern Scaling for Developing Change Scenarios in Water Supply Studies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anandhi, A.; Pierson, D.; Frie, A.

    2014-12-01

    Change factor methodology (CFM), or delta change factor methodology, is a type of pattern scaling. Although a variety of methods are available to develop scenarios, CFMs are widely used for their ease and speed of application and their capability to directly scale local data according to changes suggested by the global climate model (GCM) scenarios. Change factors (CFs) can be calculated and used in a number of ways to estimate future climate scenarios, but no clear guidelines are available in the literature to decide which methodologies are most suitable for different applications. This study compares and contrasts several categories of CFM (additive versus multiplicative and single versus multiple) for a number of climate variables. The study employs several theoretical examples as well as an applied study from the New York City water supply. Results show that in cases where the frequency distribution of the GCM baseline climate is close to the frequency distribution of the observed climate, or when the frequency distribution of the GCM future climate is close to the frequency distribution of the GCM baseline climate, additive and multiplicative single CFMs provide comparable results. Two options to guide the choice of CFM are suggested: the first is a detailed methodological analysis for choosing the most appropriate CFM, and the second is a default method for circumstances in which a detailed methodological analysis is too cumbersome.

  16. Assessment of Folsom Lake Watershed response to historical and potential future climate scenarios

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Carpenter, Theresa M.; Georgakakos, Konstantine P.

    2000-01-01

    An integrated forecast-control system was designed to allow the profitable use of ensemble forecasts for the operational management of multi-purpose reservoirs. The system ingests large-scale climate model monthly precipitation through the adjustment of the marginal distribution of reservoir-catchment precipitation to reflect occurrence of monthly climate precipitation amounts in the extreme terciles of their distribution. Generation of ensemble reservoir inflow forecasts is then accomplished with due account for atmospheric- forcing and hydrologic- model uncertainties. These ensemble forecasts are ingested by the decision component of the integrated system, which generates non- inferior trade-off surfaces and, given management preferences, estimates of reservoir- management benefits over given periods. In collaboration with the Bureau of Reclamation and the California Nevada River Forecast Center, the integrated system is applied to Folsom Lake in California to evaluate the benefits for flood control, hydroelectric energy production, and low flow augmentation. In addition to retrospective studies involving the historical period 1964-1993, system simulations were performed for the future period 2001-2030, under a control (constant future greenhouse-gas concentrations assumed at the present levels) and a greenhouse-gas- increase (1-% per annum increase assumed) scenario. The present paper presents and validates ensemble 30-day reservoir- inflow forecasts under a variety of situations. Corresponding reservoir management results are presented in Yao and Georgakakos, A., this issue. Principle conclusions of this paper are that the integrated system provides reliable ensemble inflow volume forecasts at the 5-% confidence level for the majority of the deciles of forecast frequency, and that the use of climate model simulations is beneficial mainly during high flow periods. It is also found that, for future periods with potential sharp climatic increases of precipitation

  17. Modelling present and future African climate using CMIP5scenarios in HadGEM2-ES

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shimizu, M. H.; Diallo, M.; Dike, V. N.

    2014-12-01

    The present precipitation and temperature patterns and expected future changes (2073-2098) in Africa are investigated using the Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model 2-Earth System (HadGEM2-ES) under the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) protocols for historical and future emission scenarios simulations.In a CMIP5 multimodel analysis, the annual cycles of temperature and precipitation simulated by HadGEM2-ES were very close to the multimodel ensemble mean. HadGEM2-ES temperature simulation compares well with the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) reanalysis over the 1979-2004 periods, except for a summer overestimation in Central Africa, and a winter underestimation in tropical West Africa. The precipitation simulation compared well with the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) data from 1979 to 2004 over the entire Africa, except in the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), where the model fails to capture adequately the transition phase of the monsoon circulation. The dry regimes over Northern Africa as well as the wetter regime occurring over Central Africa, which is mainly regulated by the ITCZ displacement, and during the austral summer of Southern Africa, are also fairly reproduced by the HadGEM2-ES model. The model projects for the end of the 21st century a rainy South Africa, a change of the flood/drought cycle in the Tropics and a warming over the whole continent, varying from 3 to 7 ∘ C. HadGEM2-ES performance for Nigeria shows good reproduction of precipitation seasonal cycles for some locations, outside the ITCZ. However, the comparison with in situ measurement in Ilorin and Lagos shows the model is not being able to reproduce the precipitation annual cycle. Future projections for Nigeria exhibit warming everywhere and an enhancement of precipitation, especially in the northern part of the country.

  18. Simulation of the 1992 Tessina landslide by a cellular automata model and future hazard scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Avolio, MV; Di Gregorio, Salvatore; Mantovani, Franco; Pasuto, Alessandro; Rongo, Rocco; Silvano, Sandro; Spataro, William

    Cellular Automata are a powerful tool for modelling natural and artificial systems, which can be described in terms of local interactions of their constituent parts. Some types of landslides, such as debris/mud flows, match these requirements. The 1992 Tessina landslide has characteristics (slow mud flows) which make it appropriate for modelling by means of Cellular Automata, except for the initial phase of detachment, which is caused by a rotational movement that has no effect on the mud flow path. This paper presents the Cellular Automata approach for modelling slow mud/debris flows, the results of simulation of the 1992 Tessina landslide and future hazard scenarios based on the volumes of masses that could be mobilised in the future. They were obtained by adapting the Cellular Automata Model called SCIDDICA, which has been validated for very fast landslides. SCIDDICA was applied by modifying the general model to the peculiarities of the Tessina landslide. The simulations obtained by this initial model were satisfactory for forecasting the surface covered by mud. Calibration of the model, which was obtained from simulation of the 1992 event, was used for forecasting flow expansion during possible future reactivation. For this purpose two simulations concerning the collapse of about 1 million m 3 of material were tested. In one of these, the presence of a containment wall built in 1992 for the protection of the Tarcogna hamlet was inserted. The results obtained identified the conditions of high risk affecting the villages of Funes and Lamosano and show that this Cellular Automata approach can have a wide range of applications for different types of mud/debris flows.

  19. Tidal Hydrodynamics under Future Sea Level Rise Scenarios with Coastal Morphology along the Northern Gulf of Mexico

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Passeri, D. L.; Hagen, S. C.; Plant, N. G.; Bilskie, M. V.; Medeiros, S. C.; Alizad, K.

    2015-12-01

    This study examines the integrated influence of sea level rise (SLR) and future morphology on tidal hydrodynamics along the Northern Gulf of Mexico (NGOM) coast with particular focus in three estuaries: Grand Bay, MS, Weeks Bay, AL, and Apalachicola, FL. A large-domain hydrodynamic model was used to simulate astronomic tides for present (circa 2005) and future conditions (circa 2050 and 2100) to understand how sea level and morphology affect tidal heights and velocities. The model was modified with SLR scenarios and projections of morphology obtained from a Bayesian Network (BN); the BN relates driving forces and geological constraints to produce probabilistic projections of shoreline change and dune heights under SLR. Tidal amplitudes within the bays increased as much as 67% (10.0 cm) under the highest SLR scenario. There was a linear correlation between the change in the inlet cross-sectional area under SLR and the change in the tidal amplitude in each bay. Changes in harmonic constituent phases indicated faster tidal propagation in the future scenario in all of the bays except St. Andrew. Tidal velocities also increased in all of the bays, especially in Grand Bay where current velocities doubled under the highest SLR scenario. In addition, the ratio of the flood to ebb velocity decreased (i.e., currents became more ebb dominant) in all of the future scenarios within Weeks Bay and Apalachicola, by as much as 26% and 39%, respectively. Under the higher SLR scenarios, currents those two estuaries reversed from flood-dominant to ebb-dominant. In Grand Bay, the flood-ebb ratio increased (i.e., currents became more flood dominant) by 25% under the lower SLR scenarios, but decreased by 16% under the higher SLR as a result of the offshore barrier islands being overtopped. Results from this study can be used to inform future storm surge and ecological assessments of SLR, and improve monitoring and management decisions within the NGOM estuaries.

  20. Evaluating watershed service availability under future management and climate change scenarios in the Pangani Basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Notter, Benedikt; Hurni, Hans; Wiesmann, Urs; Ngana, James O.

    Watershed services are the benefits people obtain from the flow of water through a watershed. While demand for such services is increasing in most parts of the world, supply is getting more insecure due to human impacts on ecosystems such as climate or land use change. Population and water management authorities therefore require information on the potential availability of watershed services in the future and the trade-offs involved. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is used to model watershed service availability for future management and climate change scenarios in the East African Pangani Basin. In order to quantify actual “benefits”, SWAT2005 was slightly modified, calibrated and configured at the required spatial and temporal resolution so that simulated water resources and processes could be characterized based on their valuation by stakeholders and their accessibility. The calibrated model was then used to evaluate three management and three climate scenarios. The results show that by the year 2025, not primarily the physical availability of water, but access to water resources and efficiency of use represent the greatest challenges. Water to cover basic human needs is available at least 95% of time but must be made accessible to the population through investments in distribution infrastructure. Concerning the trade-off between agricultural use and hydropower production, there is virtually no potential for an increase in hydropower even if it is given priority. Agriculture will necessarily expand spatially as a result of population growth, and can even benefit from higher irrigation water availability per area unit, given improved irrigation efficiency and enforced regulation to ensure equitable distribution of available water. The decline in services from natural terrestrial ecosystems (e.g. charcoal, food), due to the expansion of agriculture, increases the vulnerability of residents who depend on such services mostly in times

  1. Future Scenarios as a Research Tool: Investigating Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation Options and Outcomes for the Great Barrier Reef, Australia.

    PubMed

    Evans, Louisa S; Hicks, Christina C; Fidelman, Pedro; Tobin, Renae C; Perry, Allison L

    2013-01-01

    Climate change is a significant future driver of change in coastal social-ecological systems. Our knowledge of impacts, adaptation options, and possible outcomes for marine environments and coastal industries is expanding, but remains limited and uncertain. Alternative scenarios are a way to explore potential futures under a range of conditions. We developed four alternative future scenarios for the Great Barrier Reef and its fishing and tourism industries positing moderate and more extreme (2-3 °C above pre-industrial temperatures) warming for 2050 and contrasting 'limited' and 'ideal' ecological and social adaptation. We presented these scenarios to representatives of key stakeholder groups to assess the perceived viability of different social adaptation options to deliver desirable outcomes under varied contexts.

  2. The future water environment--using scenarios to explore the significant water management challenges in England and Wales to 2050.

    PubMed

    Henriques, C; Garnett, K; Weatherhead, E K; Lickorish, F A; Forrow, D; Delgado, J

    2015-04-15

    Society gets numerous benefits from the water environment. It is crucial to ensure that water management practices deliver these benefits over the long-term in a sustainable and cost-effective way. Currently, hydromorphological alterations and nutrient enrichment pose the greatest challenges in European water bodies. The rapidly changing climatic and socio-economic boundary conditions pose further challenges to water management decisions and the achievement of policy goals. Scenarios are a strategic tool useful in conducting systematic investigations of future uncertainties pertaining to water management. In this study, the use of scenarios revealed water management challenges for England and Wales to 2050. A set of existing scenarios relevant to river basin management were elaborated through stakeholder workshops and interviews, relying on expert knowledge to identify drivers of change, their interdependencies, and influence on system dynamics. In a set of four plausible alternative futures, the causal chain from driving forces through pressures to states, impacts and responses (DPSIR framework) was explored. The findings suggest that scenarios driven by short-term economic growth and competitiveness undermine current environmental legislative requirements and exacerbate the negative impacts of climate change, producing a general deterioration of water quality and physical habitats, as well as reduced water availability with adverse implications for the environment, society and economy. Conversely, there are substantial environmental improvements under the scenarios characterised by long-term sustainability, though achieving currently desired environmental outcomes still poses challenges. The impacts vary across contrasting generic catchment types that exhibit distinct future water management challenges. The findings suggest the need to address hydromorphological alterations, nutrient enrichment and nitrates in drinking water, which are all likely to be

  3. The future water environment--using scenarios to explore the significant water management challenges in England and Wales to 2050.

    PubMed

    Henriques, C; Garnett, K; Weatherhead, E K; Lickorish, F A; Forrow, D; Delgado, J

    2015-04-15

    Society gets numerous benefits from the water environment. It is crucial to ensure that water management practices deliver these benefits over the long-term in a sustainable and cost-effective way. Currently, hydromorphological alterations and nutrient enrichment pose the greatest challenges in European water bodies. The rapidly changing climatic and socio-economic boundary conditions pose further challenges to water management decisions and the achievement of policy goals. Scenarios are a strategic tool useful in conducting systematic investigations of future uncertainties pertaining to water management. In this study, the use of scenarios revealed water management challenges for England and Wales to 2050. A set of existing scenarios relevant to river basin management were elaborated through stakeholder workshops and interviews, relying on expert knowledge to identify drivers of change, their interdependencies, and influence on system dynamics. In a set of four plausible alternative futures, the causal chain from driving forces through pressures to states, impacts and responses (DPSIR framework) was explored. The findings suggest that scenarios driven by short-term economic growth and competitiveness undermine current environmental legislative requirements and exacerbate the negative impacts of climate change, producing a general deterioration of water quality and physical habitats, as well as reduced water availability with adverse implications for the environment, society and economy. Conversely, there are substantial environmental improvements under the scenarios characterised by long-term sustainability, though achieving currently desired environmental outcomes still poses challenges. The impacts vary across contrasting generic catchment types that exhibit distinct future water management challenges. The findings suggest the need to address hydromorphological alterations, nutrient enrichment and nitrates in drinking water, which are all likely to be

  4. Estimation of future carbon budget with climate change and reforestation scenario in North Korea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, Damin; Lim, Chul-Hee; Song, Cholho; Lee, Woo-Kyun; Piao, Dongfan; Heo, Seongbong; Jeon, Seongwoo

    2016-09-01

    In terms of climate change, quantifying carbon budget in forest is critical for managing a role of forest as carbon sink. Deforestation in North Korea has been exacerbating at a noticeable pace and caused to worsen the carbon budget. Under the circumstance, this study aimed to assess the impact of climate change and reforestation on the carbon budget in 2020s and 2050s, using the VISIT (Vegetation Integrative SImulator for Trace gases) model. In order to analyze the impact of reforestation, future land cover maps for the 2020s and 2050s were prepared. Among the deforested areas (2.5 × 106 ha) identified by comparing land cover maps for different periods, the potential reforestation areas were selected by a reforestation scenario considering slope, accessibility from residence, and deforestation types. The extracted potential reforestation areas were 1.7 × 106 ha and the increased forest area was spatially distributed to each district. The percentage change in carbon budget caused by climate change from the 2000s to 2020s is 67.60% and that from the 2020s to 2050s is 45.98% on average. Based on the future land cover, NEP (net ecosystem production) with reforestation will increase by 18.18% than that without reforestation in the 2050s, which shows the contribution to carbon balance. In connection with this long term projection, it is revealed that the gross fluxes such as photosynthesis and respiration may be impacted more obviously by the climate change, especially global warming, than the net carbon flux because of the offset between the changes in the gross fluxes. It is analyzed that changes in carbon budget are very sensitive to climate changes, while the impact of reforestation is relatively less sensitive. Although it is impossible to significantly improve carbon sequestration by establishing forest in a short-term, reforestation is imperative in a long-term view as it clearly has a potential mechanism to offset emitted carbon.

  5. Projected Future Distributions of Vectors of Trypanosoma cruzi in North America under Climate Change Scenarios

    PubMed Central

    Garza, Miroslava; Feria Arroyo, Teresa Patricia; Casillas, Edgar A.; Sanchez-Cordero, Victor; Rivaldi, Chissa-Louise; Sarkar, Sahotra

    2014-01-01

    Background Chagas disease kills approximately 45 thousand people annually and affects 10 million people in Latin America and the southern United States. The parasite that causes the disease, Trypanosoma cruzi, can be transmitted by insects of the family Reduviidae, subfamily Triatominae. Any study that attempts to evaluate risk for Chagas disease must focus on the ecology and biogeography of these vectors. Expected distributional shifts of vector species due to climate change are likely to alter spatial patterns of risk of Chagas disease, presumably through northward expansion of high risk areas in North America. Methodology/Principal Findings We forecast the future (2050) distributions in North America of Triatoma gerstaeckeri and T. sanguisuga, two of the most common triatomine species and important vectors of Trypanosoma cruzi in the southern United States. Our aim was to analyze how climate change might affect the future shift of Chagas disease in North America using a maximum entropy algorithm to predict changes in suitable habitat based on vector occurrence points and predictive environmental variables. Projections based on three different general circulation models (CCCMA, CSIRO, and HADCM3) and two IPCC scenarios (A2 and B2) were analyzed. Twenty models were developed for each case and evaluated via cross-validation. The final model averages result from all twenty of these models. All models had AUC >0.90, which indicates that the models are robust. Our results predict a potential northern shift in the distribution of T. gerstaeckeri and a northern and southern distributional shift of T. sanguisuga from its current range due to climate change. Conclusions/Significance The results of this study provide baseline information for monitoring the northward shift of potential risk from Chagas disease in the face of climate change. PMID:24831117

  6. US National Climate Assessment (NCA) Scenarios for Assessing Our Climate Future: Issues and Methodological Perspectives Background Whitepaper for Participants

    SciTech Connect

    Moss, Richard H.; Engle, Nathan L.; Hall, John; Jacobs, Kathy; Lempert, Rob; Mearns, L. O.; Melillo, Jerry; Mote, Phil; O'Brien, Sheila; Rosenzweig, C.; Ruane, Alex; Sheppard, Stephen; Vallario, Robert W.; Wiek, Arnim; Wilbanks, Thomas

    2011-10-01

    This whitepaper is intended to provide a starting point for discussion at a workshop for the National Climate Assessment (NCA) that focuses on the use and development of scenarios. The paper will provide background needed by participants in the workshop in order to review options for developing and using scenarios in NCA. The paper briefly defines key terms and establishes a conceptual framework for developing consistent scenarios across different end uses and spatial scales. It reviews uses of scenarios in past U.S. national assessments and identifies potential users of and needs for scenarios for both the report scheduled for release in June 2013 and to support an ongoing distributed assessment process in sectors and regions around the country. Because scenarios prepared for the NCA will need to leverage existing research, the paper takes account of recent scientific advances and activities that could provide needed inputs. Finally, it considers potential approaches for providing methods, data, and other tools for assessment participants. We note that the term 'scenarios' has many meanings. An important goal of the whitepaper (and portions of the workshop agenda) is pedagogical (i.e., to compare different meanings and uses of the term and make assessment participants aware of the need to be explicit about types and uses of scenarios). In climate change research, scenarios have been used to establish bounds for future climate conditions and resulting effects on human and natural systems, given a defined level of greenhouse gas emissions. This quasi-predictive use contrasts with the way decision analysts typically use scenarios (i.e., to consider how robust alternative decisions or strategies may be to variation in key aspects of the future that are uncertain). As will be discussed, in climate change research and assessment, scenarios describe a range of aspects of the future, including major driving forces (both human activities and natural processes), changes in

  7. The Epidemic of Zika Virus-Related Microcephaly in Brazil: Detection, Control, Etiology, and Future Scenarios.

    PubMed

    Teixeira, Maria G; Costa, Maria da Conceição N; de Oliveira, Wanderson K; Nunes, Marilia Lavocat; Rodrigues, Laura C

    2016-04-01

    We describe the epidemic of microcephaly in Brazil, its detection and attempts to control it, the suspected causal link with Zika virus infection during pregnancy, and possible scenarios for the future. In October 2015, in Pernambuco, Brazil, an increase in the number of newborns with microcephaly was reported. Mothers of the affected newborns reported rashes during pregnancy and no exposure to other potentially teratogenic agents. Women delivering in October would have been in the first trimester of pregnancy during the peak of a Zika epidemic in March. By the end of 2015, 4180 cases of suspected microcephaly had been reported. Zika spread to other American countries and, in February 2016, the World Health Organization declared the Zika epidemic a public health emergency of international concern. This unprecedented situation underscores the urgent need to establish the evidence of congenital infection risk by gestational week and accrue knowledge. There is an urgent call for a Zika vaccine, better diagnostic tests, effective treatment, and improved mosquito-control methods.

  8. Environmental legislation and aquatic ecotoxicology in Mexico: past, present and future scenarios.

    PubMed

    Mendoza-Cantú, Ania; Ramírez-Romero, Patricia; Pica-Granados, Yolanda

    2007-08-01

    The consolidation of environmental legislation is fundamental for governments that wish to support and promote different actions focused on reducing pollution and protecting natural water resources in order to maintain the present and future benefits that water provides for human beings and wild life. Environmental laws are essential for sustaining human activities and health, preserving biodiversity and promoting sustainable development. In this context, it is important that environmental regulations concentrate on preventing or reducing the harmful impact of pollutants on organisms and ecosystems. The introduction of toxicity bioassays in environmental regulations is a positive step toward achieving this goal. In Mexico, the development of environmental legislation and the introduction of bioassays in water regulation are part of a very recent and complex journey. This article describes how aquatic ecotoxicology tools, particularly bioassays, have influenced water pollution policies in Mexico. Three scenarios are reviewed: the background of Mexican legislation on water protection and Mexico's participation in the Watertox project; the actual efforts of SEMARNAT to develop bioassay batteries for this country; and, the challenges and perspectives of ecotoxicological bioassays as regulatory instruments.

  9. Modelling the Northward Expansion of Culicoides sonorensis (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) under Future Climate Scenarios.

    PubMed

    Zuliani, Anna; Massolo, Alessandro; Lysyk, Timothy; Johnson, Gregory; Marshall, Shawn; Berger, Kathryn; Cork, Susan Catherine

    2015-01-01

    Climate change is affecting the distribution of pathogens and their arthropod vectors worldwide, particularly at northern latitudes. The distribution of Culicoides sonorensis (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) plays a key role in affecting the emergence and spread of significant vector borne diseases such as Bluetongue (BT) and Epizootic Hemorrhagic Disease (EHD) at the border between USA and Canada. We used 50 presence points for C. sonorensis collected in Montana (USA) and south-central Alberta (Canada) between 2002 and 2012, together with monthly climatic and environmental predictors to develop a series of alternative maximum entropy distribution models. The best distribution model under current climatic conditions was selected through the Akaike Information Criterion, and included four predictors: Vapour Pressure Deficit of July, standard deviation of Elevation, Land Cover and mean Precipitation of May. This model was then projected into three climate change scenarios adopted by the IPCC in its 5th assessment report and defined as Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5. Climate change data for each predictor and each RCP were calculated for two time points pooling decadal data around each one of them: 2030 (2021-2040) and 2050 (2041-2060). Our projections showed that the areas predicted to be at moderate-high probability of C. sonorensis occurrence would increase from the baseline scenario to 2030 and from 2030 to 2050 for each RCP. The projection also indicated that the current northern limit of C. sonorensis distribution is expected to move northwards to above 53°N. This may indicate an increased risk of Culicoides-borne diseases occurrence over the next decades, particularly at the USA-Canada border, as a result of changes which favor C. sonorensis presence when associated to other factors (i.e. host and pathogen factors). Recent observations of EHD outbreaks in northern Montana and southern Alberta supported our projections and considerations

  10. Modelling the Northward Expansion of Culicoides sonorensis (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) under Future Climate Scenarios

    PubMed Central

    Lysyk, Timothy; Johnson, Gregory; Marshall, Shawn; Berger, Kathryn; Cork, Susan Catherine

    2015-01-01

    Climate change is affecting the distribution of pathogens and their arthropod vectors worldwide, particularly at northern latitudes. The distribution of Culicoides sonorensis (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) plays a key role in affecting the emergence and spread of significant vector borne diseases such as Bluetongue (BT) and Epizootic Hemorrhagic Disease (EHD) at the border between USA and Canada. We used 50 presence points for C. sonorensis collected in Montana (USA) and south-central Alberta (Canada) between 2002 and 2012, together with monthly climatic and environmental predictors to develop a series of alternative maximum entropy distribution models. The best distribution model under current climatic conditions was selected through the Akaike Information Criterion, and included four predictors: Vapour Pressure Deficit of July, standard deviation of Elevation, Land Cover and mean Precipitation of May. This model was then projected into three climate change scenarios adopted by the IPCC in its 5th assessment report and defined as Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5. Climate change data for each predictor and each RCP were calculated for two time points pooling decadal data around each one of them: 2030 (2021–2040) and 2050 (2041–2060). Our projections showed that the areas predicted to be at moderate-high probability of C. sonorensis occurrence would increase from the baseline scenario to 2030 and from 2030 to 2050 for each RCP. The projection also indicated that the current northern limit of C. sonorensis distribution is expected to move northwards to above 53°N. This may indicate an increased risk of Culicoides-borne diseases occurrence over the next decades, particularly at the USA-Canada border, as a result of changes which favor C. sonorensis presence when associated to other factors (i.e. host and pathogen factors). Recent observations of EHD outbreaks in northern Montana and southern Alberta supported our projections and

  11. Water scarcity in the Spanish part of the Douro basin: current status and future scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jesús Vicente, David; Rodriguez-Sinobas, Leonor

    2016-04-01

    many European studies. This model is used by the Spanish National Hydrological Authority to develop the River Basin Plans. The study has considered a monthly time step resolution and four scenarios: the present state (2015), and the prediction for 2021, 2027 and 2033 which will highlight future water demands and water availability in the area considering climate change assumptions. Results showed that for a given scenarios, water scarcity is only highlighted if the WEI+ indicator is calculated at a monthly basis but not necessarily at the annual one. Hence, the monthly resolution would be preferred to study seasonal water shortages.

  12. GIS-based quantification of future nutrient loads into Lake Peipsi/Chudskoe using qualitative regional development scenarios.

    PubMed

    Mourad, D S J; Van der Perk, M; Gooch, G D; Loigu, E; Piirimäe, K; Stålnacke, P

    2005-01-01

    This study aims at the quantification of possible future nutrient loads into Lake Peipsi/Chudskoe under different economic development scenarios. This drainage basin is on the borders of Russia, Estonia and Latvia. The sudden disintegration of the Soviet Union in 1991 caused a collapse of agricultural economy, and consequently, a substantial decrease of diffuse and point-source nutrient emissions. For the future, uncertainties about economic development and the priorities that will be set for this region make it difficult to assess the consequences for river water quality and nutrient loads into the lake. We applied five integrated scenarios of future development of this transboundary region for the next twelve to fifteen years. Each scenario consists of a qualitative story line, which was translated into quantitative changes in the input variables for a geographical information system based nutrient transport model. This model calculates nutrient emissions, as well as transport and retention and the resulting nutrient loads into the lake. The model results show that the effects of the different development scenarios on nutrient loads are relatively limited over a time span of about 15 years. In general, a further reduction of nutrient loads is expected, except for a fast economic development scenario. PMID:15850209

  13. Cloud cover climatologies in the Mediterranean obtained from satellites, surface observations, reanalyses, and CMIP5 simulations: validation and future scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Enriquez-Alonso, Aaron; Sanchez-Lorenzo, Arturo; Calbó, Josep; González, Josep-Abel; Norris, Joel R.

    2016-07-01

    Clouds are an important regulator of climate due to their connection to the water balance of the atmosphere and their interaction with solar and infrared radiation. In this study, monthly total cloud cover (TCC) records from different sources have been inter-compared on annual and seasonal basis for the Mediterranean region and the period 1984-2005. Specifically, gridded databases from satellite projects (ISCCP, CLARA, PATMOS-x), from reanalysis products (ERA-Interim, MERRA), and from surface observations over land (EECRA) and ocean (ICOADS) have been examined. Then, simulations from 44 climate runs of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 corresponding to the historical scenario have been compared against the observations. Overall, we find good agreement between the mean values of TCC estimated from the three satellite products and from surface observations, while reanalysis products show much lower values across the region. Nevertheless, all datasets show similar behavior regarding the annual cycle of TCC. In addition, our results indicate an underestimation of TCC from climate model simulations as compared to the satellite products, especially during summertime, although the annual cycle is well simulated by most models. This result is quite general and apparently independent of the cloud parameterizations included in each particular model. Equally, similar results are obtained if the ISCCP simulator included in the Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project Observation Simulator Package is considered, despite only few models provide the post-processed results. Finally, GCM projections of TCC over the Mediterranean are presented. These projections predict a reduction of TCC during the 21st century in the Mediterranean. Specifically, for an extreme emission scenario (RCP8.5) the projected relative rate of TCC decrease is larger than 10 % by the end of the century.

  14. Global Air Quality Predictions of Particulate Matter in the Middle East and Sensitivity to Future Emissions Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Couzo, E. A.; Holmes, C. D.; Paltsev, S.; Alawad, A.; Selin, N. E.

    2014-12-01

    We examine the influence of natural and anthropogenic drivers of future PM in the Middle East region using two future emissions scenarios to drive the GEOS-Chem atmospheric chemistry model. The Arabian Peninsula is a major source of windblown dust as well as anthropogenic aerosols. Future emissions - driven jointly and individually by climate change and anthropogenic emissions from this rapidly growing region - will play an important role in both climate forcing and human health impacts from particulate matter. We use two scenarios to compare their climate and air quality implications. First, we use the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) for four radiative forcing cases. Second, we develop a consistent future greenhouse gas and conventional pollutant emission inventory using the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model, which is a general equilibrium model of the global economy that calculates how economic growth and anthropogenic emissions change as a result of policies and other stressors. With EPPA, we examine three emissions cases, a business-as-usual case and two stabilization cases leading to anthropogenic radiative forcings of 3.7 W/m2 and 4.5 W/m2. We use these scenarios to drive GEOS-Chem for present and future climate, assessing changes in chemical composition of aerosol and drivers, both natural and anthropogenic, out to 2050. We find that projected anthropogenic emissions are strong determinants of future particulate matter air quality in the Middle East region.

  15. Scenario planning: The future of the cattle and sheep industries in Scotland and their resiliency to disease.

    PubMed

    Boden, Lisa A; Auty, Harriet; Bessell, Paul; Duckett, Dominic; Liu, Jiayi; Kyle, Carol; McKee, Annie; Sutherland, Lee-Ann; Reynolds, John; Bronsvoort, Barend M deC; McKendrick, Iain J

    2015-10-01

    In this paper, we present a description of foresighting activities undertaken by EPIC, Scotland's Centre of Expertise on Animal Disease Outbreaks, to investigate the future uncertainty of animal health security in the Scottish sheep and cattle sectors. Using scenario planning methodologies, we explored four plausible but provocative long-term futures which identify dynamics underpinning the resilience of these agricultural sectors to animal disease. These scenarios highlight a number of important drivers that influence disease resilience: industry demographics, the role of government support and regulation and the capacity for technological innovation to support the industry to meet local and global market demand. Participants in the scenario planning exercises proposed creative, robust strategies that policy makers could consider implementing now to enhance disease control and industry resilience in multiple, uncertain futures. Using these participant-led strategies as a starting point, we offer ten key questions for policy makers and stakeholders to provoke further discussion about improving resiliency and disease preparedness. We conclude with a brief discussion of the value of scenario planning, not only for the development of futures which will inform disease contingency plans and improve industry resilience, but as a mechanism for dialogue and information sharing between stakeholders and government. PMID:26349432

  16. Future Wave Height Situation estimated by the Latest Climate Scenario around Funafuti Atoll, Tuvalu

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sato, D.; Yokoki, H.; Kuwahara, Y.; Yamano, H.; Kayanne, H.; Okajima, H.; Kawamiya, M.

    2012-12-01

    Sea-level rise due to the global warming is significant phenomenon to coastal region in the world. Especially the atoll islands, which are low-lying and narrow, have high vulnerability against the sea-level rise. Recently the improved future climate projection (MIROC-ESM) was provided by JAMSTEC, which adopted the latest climate scenarios based on the RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) of the green house gasses. Wave field simulation including the latest sea-level rise pathway by MIROC-ESM was conducted to understand the change of significant wave heights in Funafuti Atoll, Tuvalu, which was an important factor to manage the coast protection. MIROC-ESM provides monthly sea surface height in the fine gridded world (1.5 degree near the equator). Wave field simulation was conducted using the climate scenario of RCP45 in which the radioactive forcing of the end of 21st century was stabilized to 4.5 W/m2. Sea-level rise ratio of every 10 years was calculated based on the historical data set from 1850 to 2005 and the estimated data set from 2006 to 2100. In that case, the sea-level increases by 10cm after 100 years. In this study, the numerical simulation of wave field at the rate of sea-level rise was carried out using the SWAN model. The wave and wind conditions around Funafuti atoll is characterized by two seasons that are the trade (Apr. - Nov.) and non-trade (Jan. - Mar., Dec.) wind season. Then, we set up the two seasonal boundary conditions for one year's simulation, which were calculated from ECMWF reanalysis data. Simulated results of significant wave heights are analyzed by the increase rate (%) calculated from the base results (Average for 2000 - 2005) and the results of 2100. Calculated increase rate of the significant wave height for both seasons was extremely high on the reef-flat. Maximum increase rates of the trade and non-trade wind season were 1817% and 686%, respectively. The southern part of the atoll has high increasing rate through the two

  17. Gazing into the Crystal Ball: Using Scenarios for Future Visioning of a Distance Learning Library Service

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Casey, Anne Marie; Cawthorne, Jon E.; Citro, Kathleen

    2014-01-01

    This article describes the use of scenarios as a tool to assist a large distance learning library service in its strategic planning. Through a description of the scenario process from beginning to end, the authors detail the steps that the library director and the consultant took initially; their missteps; and the successful conclusion. This study…

  18. Work-Based Learning in the UK: Scenarios for the Future

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mohamud, Mohamed; Jennings, Chris; Rix, Mike; Gold, Jeff

    2006-01-01

    Purpose: Aims to consider scenarios created by work-based learning (WBL) providers in the Tees Valley in the UK. Design/methodology/approach: The context of WBL is examined in relation to the notion of the skills gap. The method of scenario development is described. Findings: A key task of WBL is to raise the skills levels of young people. WBL…

  19. Risk of spring frost to apple production under future climate scenarios: the role of phenological acclimation.

    PubMed

    Eccel, Emanuele; Rea, Roberto; Caffarra, Amelia; Crisci, Alfonso

    2009-05-01

    In the context of global warming, the general trend towards earlier flowering dates of many temperate tree species is likely to result in an increased risk of damage from exposure to frost. To test this hypothesis, a phenological model of apple flowering was applied to a temperature series from two locations in an important area for apple production in Europe (Trentino, Italy). Two simulated 50-year climatic projections (A2 and B2 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change--Special Report on Emission Scenarios) from the HadCM3 general circulation model were statistically downscaled to the two sites. Hourly temperature records over a 40-year period were used as the reference for past climate. In the phenological model, the heat requirement (degree hours) for flowering was parameterized using two approaches; static (constant over time) and dynamic (climate dependent). Parameterisation took into account the trees' adaptation to changing temperatures based on either past instrumental records or the downscaled outputs from the climatic simulations. Flowering dates for the past 40 years and simulated flowering dates for the next 50 years were used in the model. A significant trend towards earlier flowering was clearly detected in the past. This negative trend was also apparent in the simulated data. However, the significance was less apparent when the "dynamic" setting for the degree hours requirement was used in the model. The number of frost episodes and flowering dates, on an annual basis, were graphed to assess the risk of spring frost. Risk analysis confirmed a lower risk of exposure to frost at present than in the past, and probably either constant or a slightly lower risk in future, especially given that physiological processes are expected to acclimate to higher temperatures.

  20. Heathlands confronting global change: drivers of biodiversity loss from past to future scenarios

    PubMed Central

    Fagúndez, Jaime

    2013-01-01

    effects of not only individual factors, but their interactions, together with land-use history, on heathland development and conservation in order to predict habitat response to future scenarios. PMID:23223202

  1. Alfalfa forage digestibility, quality and yield under future climate change scenarios vary with Sinorhizobium meliloti strain.

    PubMed

    Sanz-Sáez, Álvaro; Erice, Gorka; Aguirreolea, Jone; Muñoz, Fernando; Sánchez-Díaz, Manuel; Irigoyen, Juan José

    2012-05-15

    Elevated CO(2) may decrease alfalfa forage quality and in vitro digestibility through a drop in crude protein and an enhancement of fibre content. The aim of the present study was to analyse the effect of elevated CO(2), elevated temperature and Sinorhizobium meliloti strains (102F78, 102F34 and 1032 GMI) on alfalfa yield, forage quality and in vitro dry matter digestibility. This objective is in line with the selection of S. meliloti strains in order to maintain high forage yield and quality under future climate conditions. Plants inoculated with the 102F34 strain showed more DM production than those inoculated with 1032GMI; however, these strains did not show significant differences with 102F78 plants. Neutral or acid detergent fibres were not enhanced in plants inoculated with the 102F34 strain under elevated CO(2) or temperature and hence, in vitro dry matter digestibility was unaffected. Crude protein content, an indicator of forage quality, was negatively related to shoot yield. Plants inoculated with 102F78 showed a similar shoot yield to those inoculated with 102F34, but had higher crude protein content at elevated CO(2) and temperature. Under these climate change conditions, 102F78 inoculated plants produced higher quality forage. However, the higher digestibility of plants inoculated with the 102F34 strain under any CO(2) or temperature conditions makes them more suitable for growing under climate change conditions. In general, elevated CO(2) in combination with high temperature (Climate Change scenario) reduced IVDMD and CP content and enhanced fibre content, which means that animal production will be negatively affected.

  2. The use of scenario analysis in local public health departments: alternative futures for strategic planning.

    PubMed Central

    Venable, J M; Ma, Q L; Ginter, P M; Duncan, W J

    1993-01-01

    Scenario analysis is a strategic planning technique used to describe and evaluate an organization's external environment. A methodology for conducting scenario analysis using the Jefferson County Department of Health and the national, State, and county issues confronting it is outlined. Key health care and organizational issues were identified using published sources, focus groups, questionnaires, and personal interviews. The most important of these issues were selected by asking health department managers to evaluate the issues according to their probability of occurrence and likely impact on the health department. The high-probability, high-impact issues formed the basis for developing scenario logics that constitute the story line holding the scenario together. The results were a set of plausible scenarios that aided in strategic planning, encouraged strategic thinking among managers, eliminated or reduced surprise about environmental changes, and improved managerial discussion and communication. PMID:8265754

  3. Research in a Scenario of Change: Why Research Institutions Should Begin To Plan for the Future.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Krebs, Martha A.

    1997-01-01

    Discusses emerging ideas about the future of federal research and development activities as they relate to the future of industry and especially to institutions of higher learning. Discusses energy research today, a future perspective, the future of the research community, and challenges. Highlights the future orientation of the Office of Energy…

  4. Climate change scenarios for precipitation and potential evapotranspiration over central Belgium

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baguis, P.; Roulin, E.; Willems, P.; Ntegeka, V.

    2009-05-01

    In this article, we examine climate model estimations for the future climate over central Belgium. Our analysis is focused mainly on two variables: potential evapotranspiration (PET) and precipitation. PET is calculated using the Penman equation with parameters appropriately calibrated for Belgium, based on RCM data from the European project PRUDENCE database. Next, we proceed into estimating the model capacity to reproduce the reference climate for PET and precipitation. The same analysis for precipitation is also performed based on GCM data from the IPCC AR4 database. Then, the climate change signal is evaluated over central Belgium using RCM and GCM simulations based on several SRES scenarios. The RCM simulations show a clear shift in the precipitation pattern with an increase during winter and a decrease during summer. However, the inclusion of another set of SRES scenarios from the GCM simulations leads to a less clear climate change signal.

  5. Evolution of extreme temperatures over western Iberia; reporting on recent changes and future scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ramos, Alexandre M.; Trigo, Ricardo M.; Santo, Fátima E.

    2010-05-01

    We report on changes in surface air temperature extremes over mainland Portugal during the period 1941-2006 using daily maximum and minimum temperatures (Tmax and Tmin) from 23 of the most reliable Portuguese station records. Here we have used indices corresponding to the number of days above the 90th and below the 10th percentile for both Tmax and Tmin. This allowed us, to compute trends for the entire period of data (1941-2006) as well as for two consecutive 31-year periods: 1945-1975 (relative cooling period) and 1976-2006 (relative warming period), based on results found by Karl et al, 2000. The most striking results are related with the last period (1976-2006) that reveal a significant increase in extreme heat events for both spring and summer seasons, and a decrease in extreme cold events in winter. In the second part of this work we present an analysis of climate change over Portugal simulated by the Hadley Centre regional climate model (HadRM3) with data obtained from Project PRUDENCE. The ability of the model to reproduce the present climate (1961-1990) is tested and evaluated. For this purpose, values of Tmax and Tmin of all 23 climatological weather stations (1961-1990 climate normals) were aggregated into a new time series. Additionally we have computed the seasonal percentiles in 1% steps (ranging from 1% to 99%). For comparison purposes we have aggregated HadRM3 values into a new time series averaging grid points located closest to the 23 climatological weather stations considered, and computed the corresponding seasonal percentiles in 1% steps. This procedure allowed an objective comparison between the two probability distributions (climatological and simulated by the model), using standard q-q plots. Finally we have evaluated changes of probability distributions for future climate projections under the IPCC emission scenarios (B2 and A2), for the period between 2071-2100 when compared to the present climate (1961-1990) simulated by the model. The

  6. Economic-based projections of future land use in the conterminous United States under alternative policy scenarios.

    PubMed

    Radeloff, V C; Nelson, E; Plantinga, A J; Lewis, D J; Helmers, D; Lawler, J J; Withey, J C; Beaudry, F; Martinuzzi, S; Butsic, V; Lonsdorf, E; White, D; Polasky, S

    2012-04-01

    Land-use change significantly contributes to biodiversity loss, invasive species spread, changes in biogeochemical cycles, and the loss of ecosystem services. Planning for a sustainable future requires a thorough understanding of expected land use at the fine spatial scales relevant for modeling many ecological processes and at dimensions appropriate for regional or national-level policy making. Our goal was to construct and parameterize an econometric model of land-use change to project future land use to the year 2051 at a fine spatial scale across the conterminous United States under several alternative land-use policy scenarios. We parameterized the econometric model of land-use change with the National Resource Inventory (NRI) 1992 and 1997 land-use data for 844 000 sample points. Land-use transitions were estimated for five land-use classes (cropland, pasture, range, forest, and urban). We predicted land-use change under four scenarios: business-as-usual, afforestation, removal of agricultural subsidies, and increased urban rents. Our results for the business-as-usual scenario showed widespread changes in land use, affecting 36% of the land area of the conterminous United States, with large increases in urban land (79%) and forest (7%), and declines in cropland (-16%) and pasture (-13%). Areas with particularly high rates of land-use change included the larger Chicago area, parts of the Pacific Northwest, and the Central Valley of California. However, while land-use change was substantial, differences in results among the four scenarios were relatively minor. The only scenario that was markedly different was the afforestation scenario, which resulted in an increase of forest area that was twice as high as the business-as-usual scenario. Land-use policies can affect trends, but only so much. The basic economic and demographic factors shaping land-use changes in the United States are powerful, and even fairly dramatic policy changes, showed only moderate

  7. The new ENSEMBLES E1 mitigation scenario for future climate simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Royer, J.-F.; Lowe, J.; Johns, T.; van Vuuren, D.; Stehfest, E.; Denoblet-Ducoudré, N.; Boucher, O.; Rognerud, B.; Huebener, H.

    2009-04-01

    Climate simulations with state-of-the-art earth-system models are required to study the potential impacts of climate change, and possible solutions for avoiding, or reducing, some of its undesirable consequences. Though several emission scenarios have been applied for the IPCC AR4 assessments, the differences in the SRES scenarios result mainly from varying degrees of globalization, the role of environmental and social policy, economic and population growth and the rate of technology development. It seems then necessary to consider also more stringent mitigation pathways which aim eventually to implement a climate mitigation policy. In particular it appears particularly useful to implement and analyse climate scenarios for stabilising the additional anthropogenic radiative forcing to that equivalent to a carbon dioxide concentration at around 450 ppm during the 22nd Century for attempting to match the European Union target of keeping global anthropogenic warming below 2°C above pre-industrial levels. A new set of climate simulations over the 21st century with improved earth-system models has thus been designed by the European modelling groups participating to the European FP6 project ENSEMBLES, as a contribution to the second phase ("Stream 2") of the project. The set-up of the new simulations, though basically similar to that used in the CMIP3 simulations for the IPCC AR4, has been improved by taking into account land-use changes. The simulations cover the recent historical period (1860-2000) and are extended over the the 21st century by two scenarios based on the A1B development path. The A1B scenario has been chosen as the baseline scenario for the ENSEMBLES stream 2 simulations because the strong increase in emissions is consistent with real emissions growth, and in order provide overlap with earlier climate modelling work. Besides the standard A1B SRES scenario, a new stabilisation scenario has been developed so as to limit the long-term radiative forcing to

  8. Uncertainty in flow and sediment projections due to future climate scenarios for the 3S Rivers in the Mekong Basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shrestha, Bikesh; Cochrane, Thomas A.; Caruso, Brian S.; Arias, Mauricio E.; Piman, Thanapon

    2016-09-01

    Reliable projections of discharge and sediment are essential for future water and sediment management plans under climate change, but these are subject to numerous uncertainties. This study assessed the uncertainty in flow and sediment projections using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) associated with three Global Climate Models (GCMs), three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and three model parameter (MP) sets for the 3S Rivers in the Mekong River Basin. The uncertainty was analyzed for the short term future (2021-2040 or 2030s) and long term future (2051-2070 or 2060s) time horizons. Results show that dominant sources of uncertainty in flow and sediment constituents vary spatially across the 3S basin. For peak flow, peak sediment, and wet seasonal flows projection, the greatest uncertainty sources also vary with time horizon. For 95% low flows and for seasonal and annual flow projections, GCM and MP were the major sources of uncertainty, whereas RCPs had less of an effect. The uncertainty due to RCPs is large for annual sediment load projections. While model parameterization is the major source of uncertainty in the short term (2030s), GCMs and RCPs are the major contributors to uncertainty in flow and sediment projections in the longer term (2060s). Overall, the uncertainty in sediment load projections is larger than the uncertainty in flow projections. In general, our results suggest the need to investigate the major contributing sources of uncertainty in large basins temporally and at different scales, as this can have major consequences for water and sediment management decisions. Further, since model parameterization uncertainty can play a significant role for flow and sediment projections, there is a need to incorporate hydrological model parameter uncertainty in climate change studies and efforts to reduce the parameter uncertainty as much as possible should be considered through a careful calibration and validation process.

  9. Biodiversity losses and conservation trade-offs: Assessing future urban growth scenarios for a North American trade corridor

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Villarreal, Miguel; Norman, Laura M.; Wallace, Cynthia S.A.; Boykin, Kenneth

    2013-01-01

    The Sonoran Desert and Apache Highlands ecoregions of North America are areas of exceptionally high plant and vertebrate biodiversity. However, much of the vertebrate biodiversity is supported by only a few vegetation types with limited distributions, some of which are increasingly threatened by changing land uses. We assessed the impacts of two future urban growth scenarios on biodiversity in a binational watershed in Arizona, USA and Sonora, Mexico. We quantified and mapped terrestrial vertebrate species richness using Wildlife Habitat Relation models and validated the results with data from National Park Service biological inventories. Future urban growth, based on historical trends, was projected to the year 2050 for 1) a “Current Trends” scenario and, 2) a “Megalopolis” scenario that represented a transnational growth corridor with open-space conservation attributes. Based on Current Trends, 45% of existing riparian woodland (267 of 451species), and 34% of semi-desert grasslands (215 of 451 species) will be lost, whereas, in the Megalopolis scenario, these types would decline by 44% and 24% respectively. Outcomes of the two models suggest a trade-off at the taxonomic class level: Current Trends would reduce and fragment mammal and herpetofauna habitat, while Megalopolis would result in loss of avian-rich riparian habitat.

  10. Exploring the Future Role of Asia Utilizing A Scenario Matrix Architecture and Shared Socio-Ecosystem Pathways

    SciTech Connect

    Eom, Jiyong; Calvin, Katherine V.; Clarke, Leon E.; Edmonds, James A.; Kim, Son H.; Kopp, Roberrt; Kyle, G. Page; Luckow, Patrick; Moss, Richard H.; Patel, Pralit L.; Wise, Marshall A.

    2012-12-01

    We explore the implications of alternative pathways for human population and economic development for the role of Asia in both reference, no-climate-policy, scenarios and scenarios in which climate forcing is limited. We consider three different reference scenarios, which we refer to as Shared Socio-ecosystem Pathways (SSPs) and four different levels of limitation on climate forcing, which we refer to as Shared Policy Assumptions (SPAs). SSPs are differentiated by population and economic growth assumptions, while SPAs are differentiated on the level of radiative forcing in the year 2100. Regardless of the scenarios we examined Asia plays a central role in shaping the world’s future with nearly half of the world’s people and more than half of the world’s economic activity and energy consumption. The future of Asian and world are dramatically different across the various combinations of SSPs and SPAs. High population worlds place significant stress on Asian resources and ecosystems. In high population SSPs the poorest members of the population face high energy and food prices and the more stringent the level of emissions mitigation, the more stress poor populations experience, though the more stringent the emissions mitigation, the larger the area of unmanaged ecosystems that are preserved.

  11. Application of the new scenario framework for climate change research: Future social vulnerability in large urban areas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rohat, Guillaume; Flacke, Johannes; Dao, Hy

    2016-04-01

    It is by now widely acknowledged that future social vulnerability to climate change depends on both future climate state and future socio-economic conditions. Nevertheless, while most of the vulnerability assessments are using climate projections, the integration of socio-economic projections into the assessment of vulnerabilities has been very limited. Up to now, the vast majority of vulnerability assessments has been using current socio-economic conditions, hence has failed to consider the influence of socio-economic developments in the construction of vulnerability. To enhance the use of socio-economic projections into climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability assessments, the climate change research community has been recently involved in the development of a new model for creating scenarios that integrate future changes in climate as well as in society, known under the name of the new scenario framework for climate change research. This theoretical framework is made of a set of alternative futures of socio-economic developments (known as shared socio-economic pathways - SSPs), a set of hypothesis about future climate policies (known as shared policy assumptions - SPAs) and a set of greenhouse gas concentration trajectories (known as representative concentration pathways - RCPs), which are all combined into a scenario matrix architecture (SMA) whose aim is to facilitate the use of this framework. Despite calls by the climate change research community for the use of this conceptual framework in impacts, adaptation and vulnerability research, its use and its assessment has been very limited. Focusing on case-studies (i.e. specific cities as well as specific climate impacts and their associated human exposures and vulnerabilities), the study presented here will attempt to operationalize this theoretical framework for the assessment of future social vulnerability in large urban areas. A particular attention will be paid to less advanced and more

  12. Simulating Lake and Wetland Areal Coverage and Numbers under Scenarios of Future Groundwater Recharge: Lake Mega-system of the Nebraska Sand Hills

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zlotnik, V. A.; Rossman, N. R.; Rowe, C. M.

    2015-12-01

    Integrated groundwater (GW) and surface water (SW) systems in arid parts of the world respond to and recover slowly from climate changes. This creates multi-generational issues with dramatic economic, social, and ecological consequences, and could likely be the case in the future for the High Plains aquifer. Despite the semi-arid climate of the Nebraska Sand Hills (NSH), groundwater recharge (GR) rates are the highest in the entire High Plains aquifer region, mostly because of thick, highly permeable sand dunes. Along with the large capacity aquifer, the GR rates in the NSH contribute to relatively steady stream baseflows and a shallow water table, creating a very complex system of several thousands of shallow (about 0.8 m on average) closed-basin lakes, and wetlands, integrated with GW. To explore the GW dynamics and address the possibility, and uncertainty range of impacts caused by future climate change on surface water, we quantified potential changes to GR rates resulting from three thoughtfully-selected Global Circulation Model (GCM) projections from the WCRP CMIP3 archive. Cumulative future period GR (as the difference between precipitation and evapotranspiration) was used as the criterion to select GCM runs, including total cumulative GR (from 2010 to 2099) nearest to the median (±1 standard deviation). This allows for: determining the most likely GR estimates, characterization of uncertainty, retaining the temporal variability of individual GCMs, while reducing time needed to perform hydrological simulations. Future GR changes from the three selected GCM runs were averaged by decade and used to force transient groundwater model runs within a 40,000 km2 part of the NSH. Dynamics of lake and wetland spatial distribution and total areal coverage and numbers, were simulated with the GW model from 2010 to 2099. Addition model runs, with fixed end-of-century GR rates, elucidate response time required for the GW system to reach equilibrium under the changed

  13. Transportation Energy Futures Series: Freight Transportation Demand: Energy-Efficient Scenarios for a Low-Carbon Future

    SciTech Connect

    Grenzeback, L. R.; Brown, A.; Fischer, M. J.; Hutson, N.; Lamm, C. R.; Pei, Y. L.; Vimmerstedt, L.; Vyas, A. D.; Winebrake, J. J.

    2013-03-01

    Freight transportation demand is projected to grow to 27.5 billion tons in 2040, and to nearly 30.2 billion tons in 2050. This report describes the current and future demand for freight transportation in terms of tons and ton-miles of commodities moved by truck, rail, water, pipeline, and air freight carriers. It outlines the economic, logistics, transportation, and policy and regulatory factors that shape freight demand, the trends and 2050 outlook for these factors, and their anticipated effect on freight demand. After describing federal policy actions that could influence future freight demand, the report then summarizes the capabilities of available analytical models for forecasting freight demand. This is one in a series of reports produced as a result of the Transportation Energy Futures project, a Department of Energy-sponsored multi-agency effort to pinpoint underexplored strategies for reducing GHGs and petroleum dependence related to transportation.

  14. Scenarios for future biodiversity loss due to multiple drivers reveal conflict between mitigating climate change and preserving biodiversity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Powell, Thomas W. R.; Lenton, Timothy M.

    2013-06-01

    We assess the potential for future biodiversity loss due to three interacting factors: energy withdrawal from ecosystems due to biomass harvest, habitat loss due to land-use change, and climate change. We develop four scenarios to 2050 with different combinations of high or low agricultural efficiency and high or low meat diets, and use species-energy and species-area relationships to estimate their effects on biodiversity. In our scenarios, natural ecosystems are protected except when additional land is necessary to fulfil the increasing dietary demands of the global population. Biomass energy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) is used as a means of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) from the atmosphere (and offsetting fossil fuel emissions). BECCS is based on waste biomass, with the addition of bio-energy crops only when already managed land is no longer needed for food production. Forecast biodiversity loss from natural biomes increases by more than a factor of five in going from high to low agricultural efficiency scenarios, due to destruction of productive habitats by the expansion of pasture. Biodiversity loss from energy withdrawal on managed land varies by a factor of two across the scenarios. Biodiversity loss due to climate change varies only modestly across the scenarios. Climate change is lowest in the ‘low meat high efficiency’ scenario, in which by 2050 around 660 million hectares of pasture are converted to biomass plantation that is used for BECCS. However, the resulting withdrawal of energy from managed ecosystems has a large negative impact on biodiversity. Although the effects of energy withdrawal and climate change on biodiversity cannot be directly compared, this suggests that using bio-energy to tackle climate change in order to limit biodiversity loss could instead have the opposite effect.

  15. Groundwater Trends and Availability Under Current and Future Groundwater Withdrawals and Climate Scenarios in Semi-arid India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shukla, S.; Sishodia, R. P.; Graham, W. D.; Jones, J. W.; Wani, S.; Heaney, J.

    2015-12-01

    Irrigation withdrawals have caused groundwater depletion, decreased surface flows and water quality problems in many parts of the world including India. Anticipated increase in groundwater demand and climate change is likely to exacerbate the problem. This study investigated long term (1990-2012) groundwater level trends in hard rock aquifers of semi-arid south India and used an integrated hydrologic model MIKE SHE/MIKE 11 to analyze the effects of changes in groundwater withdrawals and climate on groundwater and surface water flow and levels. Contrary to the common perception of widespread groundwater declines, statistical trend test results showed significant declines in only 22-36% of the wells in a three district region (3.15 million ha). Free electricity policy for farmers, implemented in 2004, and increased irrigated area were the two main causal factors. Groundwater levels in up to 76% of these wells showed significant decline after the subsidy (2005-2012) indicating the nexus between energy and groundwater. An integrated hydrologic model, developed using long-term monitoring data for a watershed (320 ha) in the region, performed well in simulating surface and groundwater levels. Compared to the current withdrawal scenario, prolonged hydrologic drought and decreased surface flows were predicted under future withdrawal scenarios. Future (2040-2069) climate scenarios from five General Circulation Models (GCMs), showed increased rainfall and flooding in the watershed. Although, projected increase in rainfall under the climate change scenarios is likely to provide opportunities for capture and reuse of surface flows, earlier well drying, and increased frequency and duration of hydrologic drought is likely to affect livelihoods of millions of small-scale farmers in this hard rock aquifer region. Several management options including changes in power subsidy and implementation of efficient irrigation systems, effective institutional mechanism to regulate

  16. Impact of sewage discharges on coastal water quality of Mumbai, India: present and future scenarios.

    PubMed

    Vijay, Ritesh; Mardikar, Trupti; Kumar, Rakesh

    2016-07-01

    The simulation study assesses the impact of sewage discharges on the present and predicted water quality of the Mumbai coast using MIKE 21. Water quality parameters in terms of dissolved oxygen (DO), biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) and faecal coliform (FC) are checked against specified standards. The simulation is validated for the present coastal hydrodynamics and observed water quality parameters. The validated model is further used for predicting scenarios in terms of upgradation in a pumping station and improvement in wastewater collection, treatment level and disposal systems. The water quality of the existing coastal environment does not conform to the stipulated standards but improves considerably in the prediction scenarios. However, despite a marked improvement in FC, it is not as per desired standards as no treatment for bacteria removal is considered. The simulation study emphasizes the need for exploring options like the reuse or recycle of treated effluent, as an effort for water conservation.

  17. Future atmospheric abundances and climate forcings from scenarios of global and regional hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) emissions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Velders, Guus J. M.; Fahey, David W.; Daniel, John S.; Andersen, Stephen O.; McFarland, Mack

    2015-12-01

    Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) are manufactured for use as substitutes for ozone-depleting substances that are being phased out globally under Montreal Protocol regulations. While HFCs do not deplete ozone, many are potent greenhouse gases that contribute to climate change. Here, new global scenarios show that baseline emissions of HFCs could reach 4.0-5.3 GtCO2-eq yr-1 in 2050. The new baseline (or business-as-usual) scenarios are formulated for 10 HFC compounds, 11 geographic regions, and 13 use categories. The scenarios rely on detailed data reported by countries to the United Nations; projections of gross domestic product and population; and recent observations of HFC atmospheric abundances. In the baseline scenarios, by 2050 China (31%), India and the rest of Asia (23%), the Middle East and northern Africa (11%), and the USA (10%) are the principal source regions for global HFC emissions; and refrigeration (40-58%) and stationary air conditioning (21-40%) are the major use sectors. The corresponding radiative forcing could reach 0.22-0.25 W m-2 in 2050, which would be 12-24% of the increase from business-as-usual CO2 emissions from 2015 to 2050. National regulations to limit HFC use have already been adopted in the European Union, Japan and USA, and proposals have been submitted to amend the Montreal Protocol to substantially reduce growth in HFC use. Calculated baseline emissions are reduced by 90% in 2050 by implementing the North America Montreal Protocol amendment proposal. Global adoption of technologies required to meet national regulations would be sufficient to reduce 2050 baseline HFC consumption by more than 50% of that achieved with the North America proposal for most developed and developing countries.

  18. Focus on the Future of Vocational Education & Training: Scenario Planning Project. An ANTA National Project.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Johnston, Ron

    The future of vocational education and training (VET) in Australia was explored in a project that was designed to identify emerging issues in VET, identify challenges and opportunities for strategic thinking about the future of VET, and establish a basis for ongoing consideration of strategic issues. The major project activities were as follows:…

  19. Use of Future Scenarios as a Pedagogical Approach for Science Teacher Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Paige, Kathryn; Lloyd, David

    2016-01-01

    Futures studies is usually a transdisciplinary study and as such embraces the physical world of the sciences and system sciences and the subjective world of individuals and cultures, as well as the time dimension--past, present and futures. Science education, where student interests, opportunities and challenges often manifest themselves, can…

  20. Future climate change under RCP emission scenarios with GISS ModelE2

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nazarenko, L.; Schmidt, G. A.; Miller, R. L.; Tausnev, N.; Kelley, M.; Ruedy, R.; Russell, G. L.; Aleinov, I.; Bauer, M.; Bauer, S.; Bleck, R.; Canuto, V.; Cheng, Y.; Clune, T. L.; Del Genio, A. D.; Faluvegi, G.; Hansen, J. E.; Healy, R. J.; Kiang, N. Y.; Koch, D.; Lacis, A. A.; LeGrande, A. N.; Lerner, J.; Lo, K. K.; Menon, S.; Oinas, V.; Perlwitz, J.; Puma, M. J.; Rind, D.; Romanou, A.; Sato, M.; Shindell, D. T.; Sun, S.; Tsigaridis, K.; Unger, N.; Voulgarakis, A.; Yao, M.-S.; Zhang, Jinlun

    2015-03-01

    We examine the anthropogenically forced climate response for the 21st century representative concentration pathway (RCP) emission scenarios and their extensions for the period 2101-2500. The experiments were performed with ModelE2, a new version of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Sciences (GISS) coupled general circulation model that includes three different versions for the atmospheric composition components: a noninteractive version (NINT) with prescribed composition and a tuned aerosol indirect effect (AIE), the TCAD version with fully interactive aerosols, whole-atmosphere chemistry, and the tuned AIE, and the TCADI version which further includes a parameterized first indirect aerosol effect on clouds. Each atmospheric version is coupled to two different ocean general circulation models: the Russell ocean model (GISS-E2-R) and HYCOM (GISS-E2-H). By 2100, global mean warming in the RCP scenarios ranges from 1.0 to 4.5°C relative to 1850-1860 mean temperature in the historical simulations. In the RCP2.6 scenario, the surface warming in all simulations stays below a 2°C threshold at the end of the 21st century. For RCP8.5, the range is 3.5-4.5°C at 2100. Decadally averaged sea ice area changes are highly correlated to global mean surface air temperature anomalies and show steep declines in both hemispheres, with a larger sensitivity during winter months. By the year 2500, there are complete recoveries of the globally averaged surface air temperature for all versions of the GISS climate model in the low-forcing scenario RCP2.6. TCADI simulations show enhanced warming due to greater sensitivity to CO2, aerosol effects, and greater methane feedbacks, and recovery is much slower in RCP2.6 than with the NINT and TCAD versions. All coupled models have decreases in the Atlantic overturning stream function by 2100. In RCP2.6, there is a complete recovery of the Atlantic overturning stream function by the year 2500 while with scenario RCP8.5, the E2-R climate model

  1. Future climate change under RCP emission scenarios with GISS ModelE2

    SciTech Connect

    Nazarenko, L.; Schmidt, G. A.; Miller, R. L.; Tausnev, N.; Kelley, M.; Ruedy, R.; Russell, G. L.; Aleinov, I.; Bauer, M.; Bauer, S.; Bleck, R.; Canuto, V.; Cheng, Y.; Clune, T. L.; Del Genio, A. D.; Faluvegi, G.; Hansen, J. E.; Healy, R. J.; Kiang, N. Y.; Koch, D.; Lacis, A. A.; LeGrande, A. N.; Lerner, J.; Lo, K. K.; Menon, S.; Oinas, V.; Perlwitz, J.; Puma, M. J.; Rind, D.; Romanou, A.; Sato, M.; Shindell, D. T.; Sun, S.; Tsigaridis, K.; Unger, N.; Voulgarakis, A.; Yao, M. -S.; Zhang, Jinlun

    2015-02-24

    We examine the anthropogenically forced climate response for the 21st century representative concentration pathway (RCP) emission scenarios and their extensions for the period 2101–2500. The experiments were performed with ModelE2, a new version of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Sciences (GISS) coupled general circulation model that includes three different versions for the atmospheric composition components: a noninteractive version (NINT) with prescribed composition and a tuned aerosol indirect effect (AIE), the TCAD version with fully interactive aerosols, whole-atmosphere chemistry, and the tuned AIE, and the TCADI version which further includes a parameterized first indirect aerosol effect on clouds. Each atmospheric version is coupled to two different ocean general circulation models: the Russell ocean model (GISS-E2-R) and HYCOM (GISS-E2-H). By 2100, global mean warming in the RCP scenarios ranges from 1.0 to 4.5° C relative to 1850–1860 mean temperature in the historical simulations. In the RCP2.6 scenario, the surface warming in all simulations stays below a 2 °C threshold at the end of the 21st century. For RCP8.5, the range is 3.5–4.5° C at 2100. Decadally averaged sea ice area changes are highly correlated to global mean surface air temperature anomalies and show steep declines in both hemispheres, with a larger sensitivity during winter months. By the year 2500, there are complete recoveries of the globally averaged surface air temperature for all versions of the GISS climate model in the low-forcing scenario RCP2.6. TCADI simulations show enhanced warming due to greater sensitivity to CO₂, aerosol effects, and greater methane feedbacks, and recovery is much slower in RCP2.6 than with the NINT and TCAD versions. All coupled models have decreases in the Atlantic overturning stream function by 2100. In RCP2.6, there is a complete recovery of the Atlantic overturning stream function by the year 2500 while with scenario RCP8.5, the E2-R

  2. Future climate change under RCP emission scenarios with GISS ModelE2

    DOE PAGES

    Nazarenko, L.; Schmidt, G. A.; Miller, R. L.; Tausnev, N.; Kelley, M.; Ruedy, R.; Russell, G. L.; Aleinov, I.; Bauer, M.; Bauer, S.; et al

    2015-02-24

    We examine the anthropogenically forced climate response for the 21st century representative concentration pathway (RCP) emission scenarios and their extensions for the period 2101–2500. The experiments were performed with ModelE2, a new version of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Sciences (GISS) coupled general circulation model that includes three different versions for the atmospheric composition components: a noninteractive version (NINT) with prescribed composition and a tuned aerosol indirect effect (AIE), the TCAD version with fully interactive aerosols, whole-atmosphere chemistry, and the tuned AIE, and the TCADI version which further includes a parameterized first indirect aerosol effect on clouds. Each atmosphericmore » version is coupled to two different ocean general circulation models: the Russell ocean model (GISS-E2-R) and HYCOM (GISS-E2-H). By 2100, global mean warming in the RCP scenarios ranges from 1.0 to 4.5° C relative to 1850–1860 mean temperature in the historical simulations. In the RCP2.6 scenario, the surface warming in all simulations stays below a 2 °C threshold at the end of the 21st century. For RCP8.5, the range is 3.5–4.5° C at 2100. Decadally averaged sea ice area changes are highly correlated to global mean surface air temperature anomalies and show steep declines in both hemispheres, with a larger sensitivity during winter months. By the year 2500, there are complete recoveries of the globally averaged surface air temperature for all versions of the GISS climate model in the low-forcing scenario RCP2.6. TCADI simulations show enhanced warming due to greater sensitivity to CO₂, aerosol effects, and greater methane feedbacks, and recovery is much slower in RCP2.6 than with the NINT and TCAD versions. All coupled models have decreases in the Atlantic overturning stream function by 2100. In RCP2.6, there is a complete recovery of the Atlantic overturning stream function by the year 2500 while with scenario RCP8.5, the

  3. The importance of uncertainties in scenario analyses--A study on future ecosystem service delivery in Flanders.

    PubMed

    Landuyt, Dries; Broekx, Steven; Engelen, Guy; Uljee, Inge; Van der Meulen, Maarten; Goethals, Peter L M

    2016-05-15

    Land use is rapidly changing and is significantly affecting ecosystem service delivery all around the world. The socio-economic context and political choices largely determine land use change. This land use change, driven by socio-economic pressures, will impact diverse elements of the environment including, for example, air quality, soil properties, water infiltration and food and wood production, impacts that can be linked to the provisioning of ecosystem services. To gain more insight into the effects of alternative socio-economic developments on ecosystem service delivery, land use change models are being coupled to ecosystem service delivery models to perform scenario analyses. Although the uncertainty of the results of these kind of scenario analyses are generally far from negligible, studies rarely take them into account. In this study, a cellular automaton land use change model is coupled to Bayesian belief network ecosystem service delivery models to facilitate the study of error propagation in scenario analysis. The proposed approach is applied to model the impact of alternative socio-economic developments on ecosystem service delivery in Flanders, Belgium and to assess the impact of land use allocation uncertainty on the uncertainty associated to future ecosystem service delivery. Results suggest that taking into account uncertainties may have an effect on policy recommendations that come out of the scenario analysis. However, in this study, uncertainties in the applied ecosystem service models were dominant, reducing the importance of accounting for land use allocation uncertainty. PMID:26930321

  4. A Coupled GCM-Cloud Resolving Modeling System to Study Precipitation Processes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tao, Wei-Kuo; Chern, Jiundar; Atlas, Robert; Peters-Lidard, Christa; Hou, Arthur; Lin, Xin

    2006-01-01

    Recent GEWEX Cloud System Study (GCSS) model comparison projects have indicated that cloud resolving models (CRMs) agree with observations better than traditional single column models in simulating various types of clouds and cloud systems from different geographic locations. Current and future NASA satellite programs can provide cloud, precipitation, aerosol and other data at very fine spatial and temporal scales. It requires a coupled global circulation model (GCM) and cloud-scale model (termed a super-parameterization or multi-scale modeling framework, MMF) to use these satellite data to improve the understanding of the physical processes that are responsible for the variation in global and regional climate and hydrological systems. The use of a GCM will enable global coverage and the use of a CRM will allow for better and more sophisticated physical parameterization. NASA Satellite and field campaign cloud related data sets can provide initial conditions as well as validation for both the MMF and CRMs. Also we have implemented a Land Information System (LIS that includes the CLM and NOAH land surface models into the MMF. The Goddard MMF is based on the 2D Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model and the Goddard finite volume general circulation model (fvGCM) This modeling system has been applied and tested its performance for two different climate scenarios, El Nino (1998) and La Nina (1999). The coupled new modeling system produced more realistic propagation and intensity of tropical rainfall systems and intraseasonal oscillations, and diurnal variation of precipitation that are very difficult to forecast using even the state-of-the-art GCMs. In this talk I will present: (1) a brief review on GCE model and its applications on precipitation processes (both Microphysical and land processes) and (2) The Goddard MMF and the Major difference between two existing MMFs (CSU MMF and Goddard MMF) and preliminary results (the comparison with traditional GCMs).

  5. Role of future scenarios in understanding deep uncertainty in long-term air quality management

    EPA Science Inventory

    The environment and its interactions with human systems, whether economic, social or political, are complex. Relevant drivers may disrupt system dynamics in unforeseen ways, making it difficult to predict future conditions. This kind of deep uncertainty presents a challenge to ...

  6. The role of future scenarios to understand deep uncertainty for air quality management.

    EPA Science Inventory

    The environment and its interaction with human systems (economic, social and political) is complex and dynamic. Key drivers may disrupt systemdynamics in unforeseen ways, making it difficult to predict future conditions precisely. This kind of deep uncertainty presents a challeng...

  7. Consequences of a future climatic scenario for the anchovy fishery in the Alboran Sea (SW Mediterranean): A modeling study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Macías, D.; Castilla-Espino, D.; García-del-Hoyo, J. J.; Navarro, G.; Catalán, I. A.; Renault, L.; Ruiz, J.

    2014-07-01

    The Alboran basin is one of the most productive areas of the Mediterranean Sea and supports an anchovy fishery with a history of remarkably variable landings. Past and present anchovy recruitment levels are highly sensitive to changes in the strength and direction of the incoming jet of Atlantic waters, which modulate the hydrographic features of the basin. Here, we analyze plausible consequences for the anchovy fisheries in the region based on a projected physical scenario for the end of the century obtained using a coupled hydrological-biogeochemical model. Our model predicts a substantial increase in horizontal water velocity and a negligible change in the associated biological production, which likely indicates reductions in anchovy stock, catches and revenues. Alternative policies are analyzed here for the economic scenario that is expected to emerge under future conditions of oceanographic features, pelagic ecosystem dynamics and anchovy landings in the Alboran Sea.

  8. California's electricity system of the future scenario analysis in support of public-interest transmission system R&D planning

    SciTech Connect

    Eto, Joseph; Stovall, John P.

    2003-04-01

    The California Energy Commission directed the Consortium for Electric Reliability Technology Solutions to analyze possible future scenarios for the California electricity system and assess transmission research and development (R&D) needs, with special emphasis on prioritizing public-interest R&D needs, using criteria developed by the Energy Commission. The scenarios analyzed in this report are not predictions, nor do they express policy preferences of the project participants or the Energy Commission. The public-interest R&D needs that are identified as a result of the analysis are one input that will be considered by the Energy Commission's Public Interest Energy Research staff in preparing a transmission R&D plan.

  9. From GCM Output to Local Hydrologic and Ecological Impacts: Integrating Climate Change Projections into Conservation Lands

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weiss, S. B.; Micheli, L.; Flint, L. E.; Flint, A. L.; Thorne, J. H.

    2014-12-01

    Assessment of climate change resilience, vulnerability, and adaptation options require downscaling of GCM outputs to local scales, and conversion of temperature and precipitation forcings into hydrologic and ecological responses. Recent work in the San Francisco Bay Area, and California demonstrate a practical approach to this process. First, climate futures (GCM x Emissions Scenario) are screened using cluster analysis for seasonal precipitation and temperature, to select a tractable subset of projections that still represent the range of climate projections. Second, monthly climate projections are downscaled to 270m and the Basin Characterization Model (BCM) applied, to generate fine-scale recharge, runoff, actual evapotranspiration (AET), and climatic water deficit (CWD) accounting for soils, bedrock geology, topography, and local climate. Third, annual time-series are used to derive 30-year climatologies and recurrence intervals of extreme events (including multi-year droughts) at the scale of small watersheds and conservation parcels/networks. We take a "scenario-neutral" approach where thresholds are defined for system "failure," such as water supply shortfalls or drought mortality/vegetation transitions, and the time-window for hitting those thresholds is evaluated across all selected climate projections. San Francisco Bay Area examples include drought thresholds (CWD) for specific vegetation-types that identify leading/trailing edges and local refugia, evaluation of hydrologic resources (recharge and runoff) provided by conservation lands, and productivity of rangelands (AET). BCM outputs for multiple futures are becoming available to resource managers through on-line data extraction tools. This approach has wide applicability to numerous resource management issues.

  10. Future scenarios of urbanization and its effects on water quantity and quality in three New England watersheds

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hutyra, L.; Yang, Y.; Kim, J.; Cheng, C.; O'Brien, P.; Rouhani, S.; Douglas, E. M.; Nicolson, C.; Ryan, R.; Schaaf, C.; Warren, P.; Wollheim, W. M.

    2013-12-01

    New England watersheds have been impacted by human development and environmental stressors that are similar to those projected to impact large portions of the United States and the world. These impacts are likely to continue as some parts of the region are projected to lose over 60% of private forestland to development by 2030. Such dramatic changes have important consequences for water quality and quantity. Because of the complex and varied interactions between human and natural systems, simply understanding the processes affecting current and historical conditions in urbanizing watersheds is inadequate to model the future. Understanding future hydrologic conditions is made more difficult because of the uncertainties inherent in projecting future climate conditions. One approach to handling this complexity is to use scenarios to explore a range of potential futures following contrasting trajectories of change. Here we describe how four scenarios of land use change were developed using a stakeholder driven process. We then began using the scenarios in hydrological models to estimate future changes in water quality and quantity. The study area includes three watersheds (the Charles, Neponset and Ipswich) that have undergone varying degrees of urbanization in the greater Boston area of Massachusetts in the northeastern United States. The Charles and Neponset River watersheds are densely populated and include the city of Boston itself. Municipal water supplies in these two watersheds are mostly from the Massachusetts Water Resources Authority (MWRA) sources in western Massachusetts. The Ipswich River watershed is highly suburban, and communities are largely dependent on local water supplies. If the historical urbanization trends continue, the impervious area in the Charles River watershed is projected to increase by 13%, 16% in Neponset River watershed, and 24% in Ipswich River watershed by 2030. For the Charles River watershed, analyses identified hot spots for

  11. Current and Future Niche of North and Central American Sand Flies (Diptera: Psychodidae) in Climate Change Scenarios

    PubMed Central

    Moo-Llanes, David; Ibarra-Cerdeña, Carlos N.; Rebollar-Téllez, Eduardo A.; Ibáñez-Bernal, Sergio; González, Camila; Ramsey, Janine M.

    2013-01-01

    Ecological niche models are useful tools to infer potential spatial and temporal distributions in vector species and to measure epidemiological risk for infectious diseases such as the Leishmaniases. The ecological niche of 28 North and Central American sand fly species, including those with epidemiological relevance, can be used to analyze the vector's ecology and its association with transmission risk, and plan integrated regional vector surveillance and control programs. In this study, we model the environmental requirements of the principal North and Central American phlebotomine species and analyze three niche characteristics over future climate change scenarios: i) potential change in niche breadth, ii) direction and magnitude of niche centroid shifts, iii) shifts in elevation range. Niche identity between confirmed or incriminated Leishmania vector sand flies in Mexico, and human cases were analyzed. Niche models were constructed using sand fly occurrence datapoints from Canada, USA, Mexico, Guatemala and Belize. Nine non-correlated bioclimatic and four topographic data layers were used as niche components using GARP in OpenModeller. Both B2 and A2 climate change scenarios were used with two general circulation models for each scenario (CSIRO and HadCM3), for 2020, 2050 and 2080. There was an increase in niche breadth to 2080 in both scenarios for all species with the exception of Lutzomyia vexator. The principal direction of niche centroid displacement was to the northwest (64%), while the elevation range decreased greatest for tropical, and least for broad-range species. Lutzomyia cruciata is the only epidemiologically important species with high niche identity with that of Leishmania spp. in Mexico. Continued landscape modification in future climate change will provide an increased opportunity for the geographic expansion of NCA sand flys' ENM and human exposure to vectors of Leishmaniases. PMID:24069478

  12. Current and future niche of North and Central American sand flies (Diptera: psychodidae) in climate change scenarios.

    PubMed

    Moo-Llanes, David; Ibarra-Cerdeña, Carlos N; Rebollar-Téllez, Eduardo A; Ibáñez-Bernal, Sergio; González, Camila; Ramsey, Janine M

    2013-01-01

    Ecological niche models are useful tools to infer potential spatial and temporal distributions in vector species and to measure epidemiological risk for infectious diseases such as the Leishmaniases. The ecological niche of 28 North and Central American sand fly species, including those with epidemiological relevance, can be used to analyze the vector's ecology and its association with transmission risk, and plan integrated regional vector surveillance and control programs. In this study, we model the environmental requirements of the principal North and Central American phlebotomine species and analyze three niche characteristics over future climate change scenarios: i) potential change in niche breadth, ii) direction and magnitude of niche centroid shifts, iii) shifts in elevation range. Niche identity between confirmed or incriminated Leishmania vector sand flies in Mexico, and human cases were analyzed. Niche models were constructed using sand fly occurrence datapoints from Canada, USA, Mexico, Guatemala and Belize. Nine non-correlated bioclimatic and four topographic data layers were used as niche components using GARP in OpenModeller. Both B2 and A2 climate change scenarios were used with two general circulation models for each scenario (CSIRO and HadCM3), for 2020, 2050 and 2080. There was an increase in niche breadth to 2080 in both scenarios for all species with the exception of Lutzomyia vexator. The principal direction of niche centroid displacement was to the northwest (64%), while the elevation range decreased greatest for tropical, and least for broad-range species. Lutzomyia cruciata is the only epidemiologically important species with high niche identity with that of Leishmania spp. in Mexico. Continued landscape modification in future climate change will provide an increased opportunity for the geographic expansion of NCA sand flys' ENM and human exposure to vectors of Leishmaniases.

  13. Current and future niche of North and Central American sand flies (Diptera: psychodidae) in climate change scenarios.

    PubMed

    Moo-Llanes, David; Ibarra-Cerdeña, Carlos N; Rebollar-Téllez, Eduardo A; Ibáñez-Bernal, Sergio; González, Camila; Ramsey, Janine M

    2013-01-01

    Ecological niche models are useful tools to infer potential spatial and temporal distributions in vector species and to measure epidemiological risk for infectious diseases such as the Leishmaniases. The ecological niche of 28 North and Central American sand fly species, including those with epidemiological relevance, can be used to analyze the vector's ecology and its association with transmission risk, and plan integrated regional vector surveillance and control programs. In this study, we model the environmental requirements of the principal North and Central American phlebotomine species and analyze three niche characteristics over future climate change scenarios: i) potential change in niche breadth, ii) direction and magnitude of niche centroid shifts, iii) shifts in elevation range. Niche identity between confirmed or incriminated Leishmania vector sand flies in Mexico, and human cases were analyzed. Niche models were constructed using sand fly occurrence datapoints from Canada, USA, Mexico, Guatemala and Belize. Nine non-correlated bioclimatic and four topographic data layers were used as niche components using GARP in OpenModeller. Both B2 and A2 climate change scenarios were used with two general circulation models for each scenario (CSIRO and HadCM3), for 2020, 2050 and 2080. There was an increase in niche breadth to 2080 in both scenarios for all species with the exception of Lutzomyia vexator. The principal direction of niche centroid displacement was to the northwest (64%), while the elevation range decreased greatest for tropical, and least for broad-range species. Lutzomyia cruciata is the only epidemiologically important species with high niche identity with that of Leishmania spp. in Mexico. Continued landscape modification in future climate change will provide an increased opportunity for the geographic expansion of NCA sand flys' ENM and human exposure to vectors of Leishmaniases. PMID:24069478

  14. Analysis of Regional Climate Changes adjusted Future Urban Growth Scenarios and possibility of the future air quality prediction in Seoul Metropolitan Area (SMA), Korea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, H.; Kim, Y.; Jeong, J.

    2012-12-01

    Land-use changes give effects to physical properties such as albedo, moisture availability and roughness length in the atmosphere, but future urban growth has not been considered widely to predict the future regional climate change because it is hard to predict the future land-use changes. In this study, we used the urban growth model called SLEUTH (Slope, Land-use, Excluded, Urban, Transportation, Hill-shade) based on Cellular Automata (CA) technique to predict the future land-use (especially, urban growth) changes. Seoul Metropolitan Area (SMA), the research area in this study, is the most explosively developed region in the Korean peninsula due to the continuous industrialization since 1970s. SLEUTH was calibrated to know the pattern and process of the urban growth and expansion in SMA with historical data for 35 years (1975-2000) provided from WAter Management Information System (WAMIS) in Korea and then future urban growth was projected out to 2050 assuming three different scenarios: (1) historical trends of urban growth (SC1), (2) future urban policy and plan (SC2), (3) ecological protection and growth (SC3). We used the FNL data of NCEP/NCAR for one month, Oct. in 2005 to evaluate the performance of the WRF on the long-term climate simulation and compared results of WRF with the ASOS/AWS (Automated Surface Observing Systems and Automated Weather System) observation data of the Korea Meteorology Administration. Based on the accuracy of the model, we performed various numerical experiments by the urban growth scenarios using the 6 hourly data of ECHAM5/OM-1 A1B scenarios generated by Max-Plank Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg, Germany on Oct. for 5 years (2046-2050), respectively. The difference of urban ratio under various urban growth scenarios in SMA consequently caused the spatial distributions of temperature to change, the average temperature to increase in the urban area. PBL height with a maximum of about 200m also appeared locally in newly

  15. A methodology to support strategic decisions in future human space exploration: From scenario definition to building blocks assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Viscio, Maria Antonietta; Gargioli, Eugenio; Hoffman, Jeffrey A.; Maggiore, Paolo; Messidoro, Andrea; Viola, Nicole

    2013-10-01

    The human exploration of multiple deep space destinations (e.g. Cis-Lunar, NEAs), in view of the final challenge of sending astronauts to Mars, represents a current and consistent study domain especially in terms of its possible scenarios and mission architectures assessments, as proved by the numerous on-going activities about this topic and moreover by the global exploration roadmap. After exploring and analysing different possible solutions to identify the most flexible path, a detailed characterisation of several Design Reference Missions (DRMs) represents a necessity in order to evaluate the feasibility and affordability of deep space exploration missions, specifically in terms of enabling technological capabilities. The study presented in this paper was aimed at defining an evolutionary scenario for deep space exploration in the next 30 years with the final goal of sending astronauts on the surface of Mars by the end of 2030 decade. Different destinations were considered as targets to build the human exploration scenario, with particular attention to Earth-Moon Lagrangian points, NEA and Moon. For all the destinations selected as part of the exploration scenario, the assessment and characterisation of the relative Design Reference Missions were performed. Specifically they were defined in terms of strategies, architectures and mission elements. All the analyses were based on a pure technical approach with the objective of evaluating the feasibility of a long term strategy for capabilities achievement and technological development to enable future space exploration. This paper describes the process that was followed within the study, focusing on the adopted methodology, and reports the major obtained results, in terms of scenario and mission analysis.

  16. The Reality and Future Scenarios of Commercial Building Energy Consumption in China

    SciTech Connect

    Zhou, Nan; Lin, Jiang

    2007-08-01

    While China's 11th Five Year Plan called for a reduction of energy intensity by 2010, whether and how the energy consumption trend can be changed in a short time has been hotly debated. This research intends to evaluate the impact of a variety of scenarios of GDP growth, energy elasticity and energy efficiency improvement on energy consumption in commercial buildings in China using a detailed China End-use Energy Model. China's official energy statistics have limited information on energy demand by end use. This is a particularly pertinent issue for building energy consumption. The authors have applied reasoned judgments, based on experience of working on Chinese efficiency standards and energy related programs, to present a realistic interpretation of the current energy data. The bottom-up approach allows detailed consideration of end use intensity, equipment efficiency, etc., thus facilitating assessment of potential impacts of specific policy and technology changes on building energy use. The results suggest that: (1) commercial energy consumption in China's current statistics is underestimated by about 44%, and the fuel mix is misleading; (2) energy efficiency improvements will not be sufficient to offset the strong increase in end-use penetration and intensity in commercial buildings; (3) energy intensity (particularly electricity) in commercial buildings will increase; (4) different GDP growth and elasticity scenarios could lead to a wide range of floor area growth trajectories , and therefore, significantly impact energy consumption in commercial buildings.

  17. Assessing the environmental costs and benefits of plantations under future carbon pricing scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jackson, R. B.; Barrett, D. J.; Farley, K.; Guenther, A.; Jobbágy, E. G.; Murray, B. C.; McCarl, B. A.; Schlesinger, W. H.

    2004-12-01

    Carbon sequestration programs are gaining attention globally as a means to offset increasing fossil fuel emissions and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. We are examining scenarios of C sequestration in four regions of the world: the U.S., South America, China, and Australia. The analysis uses economic models to predict where the plantations will be grown and then categorizes the other biogeochemical changes that will likely occur. The goals of the project include: 1) Evaluating the assumptions behind C sequestration programs for plantations, including the importance of rotation rates, a full accounting of carbon costs (e.g., planting and site preparation), and how the C would be stored and safeguarded. 2) Examining the scale of the process needed to make a substantial contribution to offset fossil fuel emissions (see below). The scenario we have chosen to evaluate is one that addresses the consequences of storing 1 PgC yr-1 for 50 years. 3) Determining and summarizing the evidence for other biogeochemical changes that will likely occur. Some of the factors to be evaluated include soil acidification, changes in water fluxes and water-table dynamics, nutrient losses, changes in soil fauna and biodiversity, volatile organic carbon emissions, and erosion. 4) A final goal of the project is to make concrete recommendations for where plantations may be the most beneficial in terms of C storage and other environmental benefits, such as the amelioration of salinity and groundwater upwelling in Australia.

  18. Impact of peatland drainage and restoration on esker groundwater resources: modeling future scenarios for management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rossi, Pekka M.; Ala-aho, Pertti; Doherty, John; Kløve, Bjørn

    2014-08-01

    Esker aquifers are common groundwater bodies in Europe. Management of these aquifers should take account of the sustainability of groundwater-dependent ecosystems and land use in an integrated way. An unconfined esker aquifer in northern Finland was modelled with MODFLOW to determine how groundwater resources are impacted by the surrounding peatland drainage scheme and to simulate scenarios for possible drainage restoration. The impacts of groundwater abstraction and climate change were also simulated. A calibration-constrained Monte Carlo method was used to provide information on the uncertainties associated with model predictions. The results suggest that peatland drainage in the vicinity of eskers can have a significant role in lowering the water table, even though climate variability may mask these impacts. Drainage restoration by filling the ditches might have positive impacts on the aquifer water levels. Comparison of water-table changes caused by peatland drainage with the changes brought by water abstraction and climate variability helped to quantify impacts of different land-use scenarios and facilitated discussion with the local stakeholders. Based on this study, more attention should be devoted to peatland drainage schemes in integrated groundwater management of esker aquifers.

  19. Assessing hydrologic impacts of future Land Change scenarios in the San Pedro River (U.S./Mexico)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kepner, W. G.; Burns, S.; Sidman, G.; Levick, L.; Goodrich, D. C.; Guertin, P.; Yee, W.; Scianni, M.

    2012-12-01

    An approach was developed to characterize the hydrologic impacts of urban expansion through time for the San Pedro River, a watershed of immense international importance that straddles the U.S./Mexico border. Future urban growth is a key driving force altering local and regional hydrology and is represented by decadal changes in housing density maps from 2010 to 2100 derived from the Integrated Climate and Land-Use Scenarios (ICLUS) database. ICLUS developed future housing density maps by adapting the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) social, economic, and demographic storylines to the conterminous United States. To characterize the hydrologic impacts of future growth, the housing density maps were reclassified to National Land Cover Database 2006 land cover classes and used to parameterize the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) using the Automated Geospatial Watershed Assessment (AGWA) tool. The presentation will report 1) the methodology for adapting the ICLUS data for use in AGWA as an approach to evaluate basin-wide impacts of development on water-quantity and -quality, 2) initial results of the application of the methodology, and 3) discuss implications of the analysis.

  20. Future land-use scenarios and the loss of wildlife habitats in the southeastern United States.

    PubMed

    Martinuzzi, Sebastián; Withey, John C; Pidgeon, Anna M; Plantinga, Andrew J; McKerrow, Alexa J; Williams, Steven G; Helmers, David P; Radeloff, Volker C

    2015-01-01

    Land-use change is a major cause of wildlife habitat loss. Understanding how changes in land-use policies and economic factors can impact future trends in land use and wildlife habitat loss is therefore critical for conservation efforts. Our goal here was to evaluate the consequences of future land-use changes under different conservation policies and crop market conditions on habitat loss for wildlife species in the southeastern United States. We predicted the rates of habitat loss for 336 terrestrial vertebrate species by 2051. We focused on habitat loss due to the expansion of urban, crop, and pasture. Future land-use changes following business-as-usual conditions resulted in relatively low rates of wildlife habitat loss across the entire Southeast, but some ecoregions and species groups experienced much higher habitat loss than others. Increased crop commodity prices exacerbated wildlife habitat loss in most ecoregions, while the implementation of conservation policies (reduced urban sprawl, and payments for land conservation) reduced the projected habitat loss in some regions, to a certain degree. Overall, urban and crop expansion were the main drivers of habitat loss. Reptiles and wildlife species associated with open vegetation (grasslands, open woodlands) were the species groups most vulnerable to future land-use change. Effective conservation of wildlife habitat in the Southeast should give special consideration to future land-use changes, regional variations, and the forces that could shape land-use decisions.

  1. Future land-use scenarios and the loss of wildlife habitats in the southeastern United States.

    PubMed

    Martinuzzi, Sebastián; Withey, John C; Pidgeon, Anna M; Plantinga, Andrew J; McKerrow, Alexa J; Williams, Steven G; Helmers, David P; Radeloff, Volker C

    2015-01-01

    Land-use change is a major cause of wildlife habitat loss. Understanding how changes in land-use policies and economic factors can impact future trends in land use and wildlife habitat loss is therefore critical for conservation efforts. Our goal here was to evaluate the consequences of future land-use changes under different conservation policies and crop market conditions on habitat loss for wildlife species in the southeastern United States. We predicted the rates of habitat loss for 336 terrestrial vertebrate species by 2051. We focused on habitat loss due to the expansion of urban, crop, and pasture. Future land-use changes following business-as-usual conditions resulted in relatively low rates of wildlife habitat loss across the entire Southeast, but some ecoregions and species groups experienced much higher habitat loss than others. Increased crop commodity prices exacerbated wildlife habitat loss in most ecoregions, while the implementation of conservation policies (reduced urban sprawl, and payments for land conservation) reduced the projected habitat loss in some regions, to a certain degree. Overall, urban and crop expansion were the main drivers of habitat loss. Reptiles and wildlife species associated with open vegetation (grasslands, open woodlands) were the species groups most vulnerable to future land-use change. Effective conservation of wildlife habitat in the Southeast should give special consideration to future land-use changes, regional variations, and the forces that could shape land-use decisions. PMID:26255365

  2. New climate change scenarios reveal uncertain future for Central Asian glaciers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lutz, A. F.; Immerzeel, W. W.; Gobiet, A.; Pellicciotti, F.; Bierkens, M. F. P.

    2012-11-01

    Central Asian water resources largely depend on (glacier) melt water generated in the Pamir and Tien Shan mountain ranges, located in the basins of the Amu and Syr Darya rivers, important life lines in Central Asia and the prominent water source of the Aral Sea. To estimate future water availability in the region, it is thus necessary to project the future glacier extent and volume in the Amu and Syr Darya river basins. The aim of this study is to quantify the impact of uncertainty in climate change projections on the future glacier extent in the Amu and Syr Darya river basins. The latest climate change projections provided by the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) generated for the upcoming fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are used to model future glacier extent in the Central Asian region for the two large river basins. The outcomes are compared to model results obtained with the climate change projections used for the fourth IPCC assessment (CMIP3). We use a regionalized glacier mass balance model to estimate changes in glacier extent as a function of glacier size and projections of temperature and precipitation. The model is developed for implementation in (large scale) hydrological models, when the spatial model resolution does not allow for modelling of individual glaciers and data scarcity is an issue. Both CMIP3 and CMIP5 model simulations point towards a strong decline in glacier extent in Central Asia. However, compared to the CMIP3 projections, the CMIP5 projections of future glacier extent in Central Asia provide a wider range of outcomes, mostly owing to greater variability in precipitation projections among the latest suite of climate models. These findings have great impact on projections of the timing and quantity of water availability in glacier melt dominated rivers in the region. Uncertainty about the size of the decline in glacier extent remains large, making estimates of future

  3. OCEANOGRAPHY. Contrasting futures for ocean and society from different anthropogenic CO₂ emissions scenarios.

    PubMed

    Gattuso, J-P; Magnan, A; Billé, R; Cheung, W W L; Howes, E L; Joos, F; Allemand, D; Bopp, L; Cooley, S R; Eakin, C M; Hoegh-Guldberg, O; Kelly, R P; Pörtner, H-O; Rogers, A D; Baxter, J M; Laffoley, D; Osborn, D; Rankovic, A; Rochette, J; Sumaila, U R; Treyer, S; Turley, C

    2015-07-01

    The ocean moderates anthropogenic climate change at the cost of profound alterations of its physics, chemistry, ecology, and services. Here, we evaluate and compare the risks of impacts on marine and coastal ecosystems—and the goods and services they provide—for growing cumulative carbon emissions under two contrasting emissions scenarios. The current emissions trajectory would rapidly and significantly alter many ecosystems and the associated services on which humans heavily depend. A reduced emissions scenario—consistent with the Copenhagen Accord's goal of a global temperature increase of less than 2°C—is much more favorable to the ocean but still substantially alters important marine ecosystems and associated goods and services. The management options to address ocean impacts narrow as the ocean warms and acidifies. Consequently, any new climate regime that fails to minimize ocean impacts would be incomplete and inadequate. PMID:26138982

  4. OCEANOGRAPHY. Contrasting futures for ocean and society from different anthropogenic CO₂ emissions scenarios.

    PubMed

    Gattuso, J-P; Magnan, A; Billé, R; Cheung, W W L; Howes, E L; Joos, F; Allemand, D; Bopp, L; Cooley, S R; Eakin, C M; Hoegh-Guldberg, O; Kelly, R P; Pörtner, H-O; Rogers, A D; Baxter, J M; Laffoley, D; Osborn, D; Rankovic, A; Rochette, J; Sumaila, U R; Treyer, S; Turley, C

    2015-07-01

    The ocean moderates anthropogenic climate change at the cost of profound alterations of its physics, chemistry, ecology, and services. Here, we evaluate and compare the risks of impacts on marine and coastal ecosystems—and the goods and services they provide—for growing cumulative carbon emissions under two contrasting emissions scenarios. The current emissions trajectory would rapidly and significantly alter many ecosystems and the associated services on which humans heavily depend. A reduced emissions scenario—consistent with the Copenhagen Accord's goal of a global temperature increase of less than 2°C—is much more favorable to the ocean but still substantially alters important marine ecosystems and associated goods and services. The management options to address ocean impacts narrow as the ocean warms and acidifies. Consequently, any new climate regime that fails to minimize ocean impacts would be incomplete and inadequate.

  5. Impact of road traffic emissions on tropospheric ozone in Europe for present day and future scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mertens, Mariano; Kerkweg, Astrid; Grewe, Volker; Jöckel, Patrick

    2016-04-01

    Road traffic is an important anthropogenic source of NOx, CO and non-methane hydrocarbons (NMHCs) which act as precursors for the formation of tropospheric ozone. The formation of ozone is highly non-linear. This means that the contribution of the road traffic sector cannot directly be derived from the amount of emitted species, because they are also determined by local emissions of other anthropogenic and natural sources. In addition, long range transport of precursors and ozone can play an important role in determining the local ozone budget. For a complete assessment of the impact of road traffic emissions it is therefore important to resolve both, local emissions and long range transport. This can be achieved by the use of the newly developed MECO(n) model system, which on-line couples the global chemistry-climate-model EMAC with the regional chemistry-climate-model COSMO-CLM/MESSy. Both models use the same chemical speciation. This allows a highly consistent model chain from the global to the local scale. To quantify the contribution of the road traffic emissions to tropospheric ozone we use an accounting system of the relevant reaction pathways of the different species from different sources (called tagging method). This tagging scheme is implemented consistently on all scales, allowing a direct comparison of the contributions. With this model configuration we investigate the impact of road traffic emissions to the tropospheric ozone budget in Europe. For the year 2008 we compare different emission scenarios and investigate the influence of both model and emission resolution. In addition, results of a mitigation scenario for the year 2030 are presented. They indicate that the contribution of the road traffic sector can be reduced by local reductions of emissions during summer. During winter the importance of long range transport increases. This can lead to increased contributions of the road traffic sector (e.g. by increased emissions in the US) even if local

  6. Building Your Own Scenario: Home Economics, Sex Equity, and Alternative Futures.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Vetter, Louise; And Others

    This training manual, one of eight in a series, has been developed to help state and local supervisors and teacher educators in home economics to conduct a workshop on sex equity as it relates to their future programs for vocational education teachers and administrators in the home economics service area. The workshop's intent is to help these…

  7. Scenarios for the Future of Air Quality: Planning and Analysis in an Uncertain World

    EPA Science Inventory

    On November 15 and 16 of 2010, EPA hosted a workshop: The Future of Air Quality: Planning and Analysis in An Uncertain World in Chapel Hill, North Carolina. This workshop was an “outside-of-the-box” thinking exercise, where a small group of EPA staff and managers brainstormed o...

  8. The role of future scenarios to understand deep uncertainty in air quality management

    EPA Science Inventory

    The environment and it’s interaction with human systems (economic, social and political) is complex and dynamic. Key drivers may disrupt system dynamics in unforeseen ways, making it difficult to predict future conditions precisely. This kind of deep uncertainty presents ...

  9. Building Your Own Scenario: Marketing and Distributive Education, Sex Equity, and Alternative Futures.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Vetter, Louise; And Others

    This training manual, one in a seris of eight, has been developed to help state and local supervisors and teacher educators in marketing and distributive education to conduct a workshop on sex equity, as it relates to their future programs, for vocational education teachers and administrators in the marketing and distributive education service…

  10. Productivity of North American grasslands is increased under future climate scenarios despite rising aridity

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Grassland productivity is regulated by both temperature and the amount and timing of precipitation. Future climate change is therefore expected to influence grassland phenology and growth, with consequences for ecosystems and economies. However, the potential response of grasslands to climate change...

  11. Temperature, but not pH, compromises sea urchin fertilization and early development under near-future climate change scenarios.

    PubMed

    Byrne, Maria; Ho, Melanie; Selvakumaraswamy, Paulina; Nguyen, Hong D; Dworjanyn, Symon A; Davis, Andy R

    2009-05-22

    Global warming is causing ocean warming and acidification. The distribution of Heliocidaris erythrogramma coincides with the eastern Australia climate change hot spot, where disproportionate warming makes marine biota particularly vulnerable to climate change. In keeping with near-future climate change scenarios, we determined the interactive effects of warming and acidification on fertilization and development of this echinoid. Experimental treatments (20-26 degrees C, pH 7.6-8.2) were tested in all combinations for the 'business-as-usual' scenario, with 20 degrees C/pH 8.2 being ambient. Percentage of fertilization was high (>89%) across all treatments. There was no difference in percentage of normal development in any pH treatment. In elevated temperature conditions, +4 degrees C reduced cleavage by 40 per cent and +6 degrees C by a further 20 per cent. Normal gastrulation fell below 4 per cent at +6 degrees C. At 26 degrees C, development was impaired. As the first study of interactive effects of temperature and pH on sea urchin development, we confirm the thermotolerance and pH resilience of fertilization and embryogenesis within predicted climate change scenarios, with negative effects at upper limits of ocean warming. Our findings place single stressor studies in context and emphasize the need for experiments that address ocean warming and acidification concurrently. Although ocean acidification research has focused on impaired calcification, embryos may not reach the skeletogenic stage in a warm ocean.

  12. Temperature, but not pH, compromises sea urchin fertilization and early development under near-future climate change scenarios.

    PubMed

    Byrne, Maria; Ho, Melanie; Selvakumaraswamy, Paulina; Nguyen, Hong D; Dworjanyn, Symon A; Davis, Andy R

    2009-05-22

    Global warming is causing ocean warming and acidification. The distribution of Heliocidaris erythrogramma coincides with the eastern Australia climate change hot spot, where disproportionate warming makes marine biota particularly vulnerable to climate change. In keeping with near-future climate change scenarios, we determined the interactive effects of warming and acidification on fertilization and development of this echinoid. Experimental treatments (20-26 degrees C, pH 7.6-8.2) were tested in all combinations for the 'business-as-usual' scenario, with 20 degrees C/pH 8.2 being ambient. Percentage of fertilization was high (>89%) across all treatments. There was no difference in percentage of normal development in any pH treatment. In elevated temperature conditions, +4 degrees C reduced cleavage by 40 per cent and +6 degrees C by a further 20 per cent. Normal gastrulation fell below 4 per cent at +6 degrees C. At 26 degrees C, development was impaired. As the first study of interactive effects of temperature and pH on sea urchin development, we confirm the thermotolerance and pH resilience of fertilization and embryogenesis within predicted climate change scenarios, with negative effects at upper limits of ocean warming. Our findings place single stressor studies in context and emphasize the need for experiments that address ocean warming and acidification concurrently. Although ocean acidification research has focused on impaired calcification, embryos may not reach the skeletogenic stage in a warm ocean. PMID:19324767

  13. Choosing an electrical energy future for the Pacific Northwest: an alternative scenario

    SciTech Connect

    Beers, J.R.; Cavanagh, R.C.; Lash, T.R.; Mott, L.

    1980-05-19

    A strategy is presented for averting the short-term energy supply uncertainties that undermine prospects for stable economic development in the Pacific Northwest. This strategy is based on: an analysis of the present electric power consumption by various end-use sectors; comparison of incentives to promote energy conservation and lower demand growth; analysis of alternatives to current dependency on hydro power; and a study of the cost of planning and implementing future power supply programs. (LCL)

  14. A Broad Assessment of Factors Determining Culicoides imicola Abundance: Modelling the Present and Forecasting Its Future in Climate Change Scenarios

    PubMed Central

    Acevedo, Pelayo; Ruiz-Fons, Francisco; Estrada, Rosa; Márquez, Ana Luz; Miranda, Miguel Angel; Gortázar, Christian; Lucientes, Javier

    2010-01-01

    Bluetongue (BT) is still present in Europe and the introduction of new serotypes from endemic areas in the African continent is a possible threat. Culicoides imicola remains one of the most relevant BT vectors in Spain and research on the environmental determinants driving its life cycle is key to preventing and controlling BT. Our aim was to improve our understanding of the biotic and abiotic determinants of C. imicola by modelling its present abundance, studying the spatial pattern of predicted abundance in relation to BT outbreaks, and investigating how the predicted current distribution and abundance patterns might change under future (2011–2040) scenarios of climate change according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. C. imicola abundance data from the bluetongue national surveillance programme were modelled with spatial, topoclimatic, host and soil factors. The influence of these factors was further assessed by variation partitioning procedures. The predicted abundance of C. imicola was also projected to a future period. Variation partitioning demonstrated that the pure effect of host and topoclimate factors explained a high percentage (>80%) of the variation. The pure effect of soil followed in importance in explaining the abundance of C. imicola. A close link was confirmed between C. imicola abundance and BT outbreaks. To the best of our knowledge, this study is the first to consider wild and domestic hosts in predictive modelling for an arthropod vector. The main findings regarding the near future show that there is no evidence to suggest that there will be an important increase in the distribution range of C. imicola; this contrasts with an expected increase in abundance in the areas where it is already present in mainland Spain. What may be expected regarding the future scenario for orbiviruses in mainland Spain, is that higher predicted C. imicola abundance may significantly change the rate of transmission of orbiviruses. PMID:21151914

  15. Tradeoffs among carbon, biodiversity, and economic returns for future land-use scenarios in the conterminous United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pennington, D. N.; Nelson, E.; Polasky, S.; Plantinga, A.; Lewis, D.; Whithey, J.; Radeloff, V.; Lawler, J.; White, D.; Martinuzzi, S.; Helmers, D.; Lonsdorf, E.

    2011-12-01

    Land-use change significantly contributes to biodiversity loss, changes ecosystem processes, and causes ultimately the loss of ecosystem services. Planning for a sustainable future requires a thorough understanding of expected future land use at both the fine-spatial scale relevant for many ecological processes and at the larger regional levels relevant for large-scale policy making. We use an econometric model to predict business as usual land-use change across the continental US with 100-m resolution in 5-year time steps from 2001 to 2051. We then simulate the affect of various national-level tax, subsidy, and zoning policies on expected land-use change over this time frame. Further, we model the impact of projected land-use change under business as usual and the various policy scenarios on carbon sequestration and biodiversity conservation in the conterminous United States. Our results showed that overall, land use composition will remain fairly stable, but there are considerable regional changes. Differences among policy scenarios were relatively minor highlighting that the underlying economic drivers of land use patterns are strong, and even fairly drastic policies may not be able to change these.

  16. Simulation of future global warming scenarios in rice paddies with an open-field warming facility

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    To simulate expected future global warming, hexagonal arrays of infrared heaters have previously been used to warm open-field canopies of upland crops such as wheat. Through the use of concrete-anchored posts, improved software, overhead wires, extensive grounding, and monitoring with a thermal camera, the technology was safely and reliably extended to paddy rice fields. The system maintained canopy temperature increases within 0.5°C of daytime and nighttime set-point differences of 1.3 and 2.7°C 67% of the time. PMID:22145582

  17. Catastrophic Shallowing of Aral Sea: Impacts On Climate, Feedbacks, and Future Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zavialov, P.; Khan, V.

    The lake Aral, also often traditionally referred to as the Aral Sea, is a large salty lake at the border between Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, two newly independent states of the former Soviet Union. The lake is fed by two fairly large rivers, Amu-Darya and Syr- Darya. Originally, the Aral surface area was about 60 000 square kilometers and the total volume was nearly 1 000 cubic kilometers. In early 60s, however, the freshwater inflow into Aral practically ceased because of unsustainable use of water resources in the river basins. This resulted in dramatic changes of Aral's water balance, lead- ing to catastrophic shallowing and salinization of the lake. By now, the lake surface has shrunk approximately twofold, while the volume has decreased by the factor of 6. These changes, in turn, are believed to have triggered strong negative impacts on the regional climate (including, but not limited to, desertification processes) and the quality of life of the local population. The Aral Sea shallowing is one of the world's major anthropogenic ecological disasters. We analyze monthly historical series of local meteorological and hydrological data to describe the climate change effects related to the Aral shrinking and separate them from the natural variability. We assess the variability of the Aral water budget com- ponents at different temporal scales. One intriguing finding is a considerable negative trend in the net evaporation rates, which points towards the existence of significant feedbacks in the system. We discuss possible mechanisms of such feedbacks. Further, we formulate a model for the dynamics of the Aral Sea level, based on the water bal- ance equations where the parameterized feedbacks are included, to investigate differ- ent scenarios for the next 50-100 years. Preliminary results suggest that the complete dry-up of the Aral Sea may actually take longer and the environmental consequences may be milder than usually thought.

  18. Heat-related mortality in Cyprus for current and future climate scenarios.

    PubMed

    Heaviside, Clare; Tsangari, Haritini; Paschalidou, Anastasia; Vardoulakis, Sotiris; Kassomenos, Pavlos; Georgiou, Kyriakos E; Yamasaki, Edna N

    2016-11-01

    Extreme temperatures have long been associated with adverse health impacts, ranging from minor illness, to increased hospitalizations and mortality. Heat-related mortality during summer months is likely to become an increasing public health problem in future due to the effects of climate change. We performed a health impact assessment for heat-related mortality for the warm months of April-September for the years 2004 to 2009 inclusive, for the city of Nicosia and for Cyprus as a whole, based on separately derived exposure-response functions. We further estimated the potential future heat-related mortality by including climate projections for southern Europe, which suggest changes in temperature of between 1°C and 5°C over the next century. There were 32 heat-related deaths per year in Cyprus over the study period. When adding the projected increase in temperature due to climate change, there was a substantial increase in mortality: for a 1°C increase in temperature, heat related mortality in Cyprus was estimated to double to 64 per year, and for a 5°C increase, heat-related mortality was expected to be 8 times the baseline rate for the warm season (281 compared with 32). This analysis highlights the importance of preparing for potential health impacts due to heat in Cyprus, particularly under a changing climate. PMID:27376918

  19. Current Status and Future Scenarios of Residential Building Energy Consumption in China

    SciTech Connect

    Zhou, Nan; Nishida, Masaru; Gao, Weijun

    2008-12-01

    China's rapid economic expansion has propelled it into the ranks of the largest energy consuming nation in the world, with energy demand growth continuing at a pace commensurate with its economic growth. Even though the rapid growth is largely attributable to heavy industry, this in turn is driven by rapid urbanization process, by construction materials and equipment produced for use in buildings. Residential energy is mostly used in urban areas, where rising incomes have allowed acquisition of home appliances, as well as increased use of heating in southern China. The urban population is expected to grow by 20 million every year, accompanied by construction of 2 billion square meters of buildings every year through 2020. Thus residential energy use is very likely to continue its very rapid growth. Understanding the underlying drivers of this growth helps to identify the key areas to analyze energy efficiency potential, appropriate policies to reduce energy use, as well as to understand future energy in the building sector. This paper provides a detailed, bottom-up analysis of residential building energy consumption in China using data from a wide variety of sources and a modeling effort that relies on a very detailed characterization of China's energy demand. It assesses the current energy situation with consideration of end use, intensity, and efficiency etc, and forecast the future outlook for the critical period extending to 2020, based on assumptions of likely patterns of economic activity, availability of energy services, technology improvement and energy intensities.

  20. Heat-related mortality in Cyprus for current and future climate scenarios.

    PubMed

    Heaviside, Clare; Tsangari, Haritini; Paschalidou, Anastasia; Vardoulakis, Sotiris; Kassomenos, Pavlos; Georgiou, Kyriakos E; Yamasaki, Edna N

    2016-11-01

    Extreme temperatures have long been associated with adverse health impacts, ranging from minor illness, to increased hospitalizations and mortality. Heat-related mortality during summer months is likely to become an increasing public health problem in future due to the effects of climate change. We performed a health impact assessment for heat-related mortality for the warm months of April-September for the years 2004 to 2009 inclusive, for the city of Nicosia and for Cyprus as a whole, based on separately derived exposure-response functions. We further estimated the potential future heat-related mortality by including climate projections for southern Europe, which suggest changes in temperature of between 1°C and 5°C over the next century. There were 32 heat-related deaths per year in Cyprus over the study period. When adding the projected increase in temperature due to climate change, there was a substantial increase in mortality: for a 1°C increase in temperature, heat related mortality in Cyprus was estimated to double to 64 per year, and for a 5°C increase, heat-related mortality was expected to be 8 times the baseline rate for the warm season (281 compared with 32). This analysis highlights the importance of preparing for potential health impacts due to heat in Cyprus, particularly under a changing climate.

  1. Decomposing uncertainties in the future terrestrial carbon budget associated with emission scenario, climate projection, and ecosystem simulation using the ISI-MIP result

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nishina, K.; Ito, A.; Falloon, P.; Friend, A. D.; Beerling, D. J.; Ciais, P.; Clark, D. B.; Kahana, R.; Kato, E.; Lucht, W.; Lomas, M.; Pavlick, R.; Schaphoff, S.; Warszawaski, L.; Yokohata, T.

    2014-10-01

    Changes to global net primary production (NPP), vegetation biomass carbon (VegC), and soil organic carbon (SOC) estimated by six global vegetation models (GVM) obtained from an Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project study were examined. Simulation results were obtained using five global climate models (GCM) forced with four representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios. To clarify which component (emission scenarios, climate projections, or global vegetation models) contributes the most to uncertainties in projected global terrestrial C cycling by 2100, analysis of variance (ANOVA) and wavelet clustering were applied to 70 projected simulation sets. In the end of simulation period, the changes from the year of 2000 in all three variables considerably varied from net negative to positive values. ANOVA revealed that the main sources of uncertainty are different among variables and depend on the projection period. We determined that in the global VegC, and SOC projections, GVMs dominate uncertainties (60 and 90%, respectively) rather than climate driving scenarios, i.e., RCPs and GCMs. These results suggested that we don't have still enough resolution among each RCP scenario to evaluate climate change impacts on ecosystem conditions in global terrestrial C cycling. In addition, we found that the contributions of each uncertainty source were spatio-temporally heterogeneous and differed among the GVM variables. The dominant uncertainty source for changes in NPP and VegC varies along the climatic gradient. The contribution of GVM to the uncertainty decreases as the climate division gets cooler (from ca. 80% in the equatorial division to 40% in the snow climatic division). To evaluate the effects of climate change on ecosystems with practical resolution in RCP scenarios, GVMs require further improvement to reduce the uncertainties in global C cycling as much as, if not more than, GCMs. Our study suggests that the improvement of GVMs is a priority for

  2. Dark scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ahonen, Pasi; Alahuhta, Petteri; Daskala, Barbara; Delaitre, Sabine; Hert, Paul De; Lindner, Ralf; Maghiros, Ioannis; Moscibroda, Anna; Schreurs, Wim; Verlinden, Michiel

    In this chapter, we present four "dark scenarios" that highlight the key socio-economic, legal, technological and ethical risks to privacy, identity, trust, security and inclusiveness posed by new AmI technologies. We call them dark scenarios, because they show things that could go wrong in an AmI world, because they present visions of the future that we do not want to become reality. The scenarios expose threats and vulnerabilities as a way to inform policy-makers and planners about issues they need to take into account in developing new policies or updating existing legislation. Before presenting the four scenarios and our analysis of each, we describe the process of how we created the scenarios as well as the elements in our methodology for analysing the scenarios.

  3. Actuarial assessment of future loss scenarios in the German insurance sector

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kubik, A.; Boehm, U.; Born, K.; Broecker, U.; Buechner, M.; Burghoff, O.; Donat, M.; Gerstengarbe, F. W.; Hattermann, F. F.; Held, H.; Kuecken, M.; Leckebusch, G. C.; Ludwig, P.; Nocke, T.; Oesterle, H.; Pardowitz, T.; Pinto, J. G.; Prahl, B. F.; Ulbrich, U.; Werner, P. C.

    2012-04-01

    The German Insurance Association (GDV) analyzed the impacts of climate change for the German insurance market. The work was conducted in cooperation with Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Freie Universität Berlin and University of Cologne. Different approaches and data sets were used to analyze the impacts of winter storm, hail and floods. High-resolution loss records to residential buildings in Germany were provided. These daily records are available on a fine spatial level of administrative districts from 1997-2007. For the period of 1984-2008 daily losses to residential buildings were derived from motor vehicle own damage insurance, which shows a surprisingly high correlation between building losses and motor vehicle losses caused by natural hazards. Loss functions from GDVs own flood risk model were made available to estimate flood losses. As climate change will progress the mean annual losses in the private residential building insurance might increase. Until 2100 losses due to winter storm could rise by more than 50%. The increase is mainly attributable to the intensification of individual exceptionally severe storms. Climate change will also result in an increase of flood losses. By the end of the century mean losses are expected to be twice as high - depending on the given scenario they could remain constant or triple. Conversely extreme events with high cumulative losses are expected to become significantly more frequent. Storms with a today's return period of 50 years might occur every 10 years at the end of the century. Floods, now returning every 50 years, could arise every 25 years. For the first time hailstorms have been analyzed. It was noticed, that in particular East Germany might be hit more frequently. Despite these findings, i.e. the cost of insurance against natural hazards might increase, the extent of such an increase in Germany should still remain within limits that can be mastered by the insurance companies. But we have to

  4. Dental manpower planning in India: current scenario and future projections for the year 2020.

    PubMed

    Vundavalli, Sudhakar

    2014-04-01

    Dental manpower issues in India are discussed in this article which consists of both qualitative and quantitative research. The output of qualified dentists has increased substantially over last decade and at present there are over 117,825 dentists working in India. Although India has a dentist to population ratio of 1:10,271, the newly graduating dentists find it difficult to survive in the private sector. At present less than approximately 5% graduated dentists are working in the Government sector. If the present situation continues there will be more than one lakh dentists over supply by the year 2020. Continuation of the current situation will lead to wastage of highly trained dental manpower and create a threat to the professional integrity of the dentists. This research highlights the fact that there is an urgent need for an organised national human resource planning system to control the supply and demand of dental manpower, to ensure a uniform distribution of manpower and to give future directions to policy makers.

  5. Role of government in public health: Current scenario in India and future scope

    PubMed Central

    Lakshminarayanan, Subitha

    2011-01-01

    The new agenda for Public Health in India includes the epidemiological transition, demographical transition, environmental changes and social determinants of health. Based on the principles outlined at Alma-Ata in 1978, there is an urgent call for revitalizing primary health care in order to meet these challenges. The role of the government in influencing population health is not limited within the health sector but also by various sectors outside the health systems. This article is a literature review of the existing government machinery for public health needs in India, its success, limitations and future scope. Health system strengthening, human resource development and capacity building and regulation in public health are important areas within the health sector. Contribution to health of a population also derives from social determinants of health like living conditions, nutrition, safe drinking water, sanitation, education, early child development and social security measures. Population stabilization, gender mainstreaming and empowerment, reducing the impact of climate change and disasters on health, improving community participation and governance issues are other important areas for action. Making public health a shared value across the various sectors is a politically challenging strategy, but such collective action is crucial. PMID:21694957

  6. Predicting Ecological Responses of the Florida Everglades to Possible Future Climate Scenarios: Introduction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aumen, Nicholas G.; Havens, Karl E.; Best, G. Ronnie; Berry, Leonard

    2015-04-01

    Florida's Everglades stretch from the headwaters of the Kissimmee River near Orlando to Florida Bay. Under natural conditions in this flat landscape, water flowed slowly downstream as broad, shallow sheet flow. The ecosystem is markedly different now, altered by nutrient pollution and construction of canals, levees, and water control structures designed for flood control and water supply. These alterations have resulted in a 50 % reduction of the ecosystem's spatial extent and significant changes in ecological function in the remaining portion. One of the world's largest restoration programs is underway to restore some of the historic hydrologic and ecological functions of the Everglades, via a multi-billion dollar Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan. This plan, finalized in 2000, did not explicitly consider climate change effects, yet today we realize that sea level rise and future changes in rainfall (RF), temperature, and evapotranspiration (ET) may have system-wide impacts. This series of papers describes results of a workshop where a regional hydrologic model was used to simulate the hydrology expected in 2060 with climate changes including increased temperature, ET, and sea level, and either an increase or decrease in RF. Ecologists with expertise in various areas of the ecosystem evaluated the hydrologic outputs, drew conclusions about potential ecosystem responses, and identified research needs where projections of response had high uncertainty. Resource managers participated in the workshop, and they present lessons learned regarding how the new information might be used to guide Everglades restoration in the context of climate change.

  7. Predicting ecological responses of the Florida Everglades to possible future climate scenarios: introduction.

    PubMed

    Aumen, Nicholas G; Havens, Karl E; Best, G Ronnie; Berry, Leonard

    2015-04-01

    Florida's Everglades stretch from the headwaters of the Kissimmee River near Orlando to Florida Bay. Under natural conditions in this flat landscape, water flowed slowly downstream as broad, shallow sheet flow. The ecosystem is markedly different now, altered by nutrient pollution and construction of canals, levees, and water control structures designed for flood control and water supply. These alterations have resulted in a 50% reduction of the ecosystem's spatial extent and significant changes in ecological function in the remaining portion. One of the world's largest restoration programs is underway to restore some of the historic hydrologic and ecological functions of the Everglades, via a multi-billion dollar Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan. This plan, finalized in 2000, did not explicitly consider climate change effects, yet today we realize that sea level rise and future changes in rainfall (RF), temperature, and evapotranspiration (ET) may have system-wide impacts. This series of papers describes results of a workshop where a regional hydrologic model was used to simulate the hydrology expected in 2060 with climate changes including increased temperature, ET, and sea level, and either an increase or decrease in RF. Ecologists with expertise in various areas of the ecosystem evaluated the hydrologic outputs, drew conclusions about potential ecosystem responses, and identified research needs where projections of response had high uncertainty. Resource managers participated in the workshop, and they present lessons learned regarding how the new information might be used to guide Everglades restoration in the context of climate change.

  8. Microorganisms as efficient biosystem for the synthesis of metal nanoparticles: current scenario and future possibilities.

    PubMed

    Salunke, Bipinchandra K; Sawant, Shailesh S; Lee, Sang-Ill; Kim, Beom Soo

    2016-05-01

    Nanoparticles, the elementary structures of nanotechnology, are important materials for fundamental studies and variety of applications. The different sizes and shapes of these materials exhibit unique physical and chemical properties than their bulk materials. There is a great interest in obtaining well-dispersed, ultrafine, and uniform nanoparticles to delineate and utilize their distinct properties. Nanoparticle synthesis can be achieved through a wide range of materials utilizing a number of methods including physical, chemical, and biological processes with various precursors from liquids and solids. There is a growing need to prepare environmentally friendly nanoparticles that do not produce toxic wastes in their process synthesis protocol. This kind of synthesis can be achieved by green environment benign processes, which happen to be mostly of a biological nature. Microorganisms are one of the most attractive and simple sources for the synthesis of different types of nanoparticles. This review is an attempt to provide the up-to-date information on current status of nanoparticle synthesis by different types of microorganisms such as fungi, yeast, bacteria, cyanobacteria, actinomycete, and algae. The probable biosynthesis mechanism and conditions for size/shape control are described. Various applications of microbially synthesized nanoparticles are summarized. They include antibacterial, antifungal, anticancer, larvicidal, medical imaging, biosensor, and catalytic applications. Finally, limitations and future prospects for specific research are discussed. PMID:27038958

  9. An integrated land change model for projecting future climate and land change scenarios

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wimberly, Michael; Sohl, Terry L.; Lamsal, Aashis; Liu, Zhihua; Hawbaker, Todd J.

    2013-01-01

    Climate change will have myriad effects on ecosystems worldwide, and natural and anthropogenic disturbances will be key drivers of these dynamics. In addition to climatic effects, continual expansion of human settlement into fire-prone forests will alter fire regimes, increase human vulnerability, and constrain future forest management options. There is a need for modeling tools to support the simulation and assessment of new management strategies over large regions in the context of changing climate, shifting development patterns, and an expanding wildland-urban interface. To address this need, we developed a prototype land change simulator that combines human-driven land use change (derived from the FORE-SCE model) with natural disturbances and vegetation dynamics (derived from the LADS model) and incorporates novel feedbacks between human land use and disturbance regimes. The prototype model was implemented in a test region encompassing the Denver metropolitan area along with its surrounding forested and agricultural landscapes. Initial results document the feasibility of integrated land change modeling at a regional scale but also highlighted conceptual and technical challenges for this type of model integration. Ongoing development will focus on improving climate sensitivities and modeling constraints imposed by climate change and human population growth on forest management activities.

  10. Predicting ecological responses of the Florida Everglades to possible future climate scenarios: introduction.

    PubMed

    Aumen, Nicholas G; Havens, Karl E; Best, G Ronnie; Berry, Leonard

    2015-04-01

    Florida's Everglades stretch from the headwaters of the Kissimmee River near Orlando to Florida Bay. Under natural conditions in this flat landscape, water flowed slowly downstream as broad, shallow sheet flow. The ecosystem is markedly different now, altered by nutrient pollution and construction of canals, levees, and water control structures designed for flood control and water supply. These alterations have resulted in a 50% reduction of the ecosystem's spatial extent and significant changes in ecological function in the remaining portion. One of the world's largest restoration programs is underway to restore some of the historic hydrologic and ecological functions of the Everglades, via a multi-billion dollar Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan. This plan, finalized in 2000, did not explicitly consider climate change effects, yet today we realize that sea level rise and future changes in rainfall (RF), temperature, and evapotranspiration (ET) may have system-wide impacts. This series of papers describes results of a workshop where a regional hydrologic model was used to simulate the hydrology expected in 2060 with climate changes including increased temperature, ET, and sea level, and either an increase or decrease in RF. Ecologists with expertise in various areas of the ecosystem evaluated the hydrologic outputs, drew conclusions about potential ecosystem responses, and identified research needs where projections of response had high uncertainty. Resource managers participated in the workshop, and they present lessons learned regarding how the new information might be used to guide Everglades restoration in the context of climate change. PMID:25743272

  11. Production of Biopharmaceuticals in E. coli: Current Scenario and Future Perspectives.

    PubMed

    Baeshen, Mohammed N; Al-Hejin, Ahmed M; Bora, Roop S; Ahmed, Mohamed M M; Ramadan, Hassan A I; Saini, Kulvinder S; Baeshen, Nabih A; Redwan, Elrashdy M

    2015-07-01

    Escherichia coli is the most preferred microorganism to express heterologous proteins for therapeutic use, as around 30% of the approved therapeutic proteins are currently being produced using it as a host. Owing to its rapid growth, high yield of the product, cost-effectiveness, and easy scale-up process, E. coli is an expression host of choice in the biotechnology industry for large-scale production of proteins, particularly non-glycosylated proteins, for therapeutic use. The availability of various E. coli expression vectors and strains, relatively easy protein folding mechanisms, and bioprocess technologies, makes it very attractive for industrial applications. However, the codon usage in E. coli and the absence of post-translational modifications, such as glycosylation, phosphorylation, and proteolytic processing, limit its use for the production of slightly complex recombinant biopharmaceuticals. Several new technological advancements in the E. coli expression system to meet the biotechnology industry requirements have been made, such as novel engineered strains, genetically modifying E. coli to possess capability to glycosylate heterologous proteins and express complex proteins, including full-length glycosylated antibodies. This review summarizes the recent advancements that may further expand the use of the E. coli expression system to produce more complex and also glycosylated proteins for therapeutic use in the future.

  12. Experience with environmental issues in GM crop production and the likely future scenarios.

    PubMed

    Gaugitsch, Helmut

    2002-02-28

    In the Cartagena Protocol on Biosafety, standards for risk assessment of genetically modified organisms (GMOs) have been set. The criteria and information basis for the risk assessment of GMOs have been modified by the EU Directive 2001/18/EC. Various approaches to further improve the criteria for environmental risk assessment of GMOs are described in this study. Reports on the ecological impacts of the cultivation of certain non-transgenic crop plants with novel or improved traits as analogy models to transgenic plants showed that the effects of agricultural practice can be at least equally important as the effects of gene transfer and invasiveness, although the latter currently play a major role in risk assessment of transgenic crops. Based on these results the applicability of the methodology of 'Life Cycle Analysis (LCA)' for genetically modified plants in comparison with conventionally bred and organically grown crop plants was evaluated. The methodology was regarded as applicable with some necessary future improvements. In current projects, the assessment of toxicology and allergenicity of GM crops are analysed, and suggestions for standardization are developed. Based on results and recommendations from these efforts there are still the challenges of how to operationalize the precautionary principle and how to take into account ecologically sensitive ecosystems, including centres of origin and centres of genetic diversity.

  13. Temperature, but not pH, compromises sea urchin fertilization and early development under near-future climate change scenarios

    PubMed Central

    Byrne, Maria; Ho, Melanie; Selvakumaraswamy, Paulina; Nguyen, Hong D.; Dworjanyn, Symon A.; Davis, Andy R.

    2009-01-01

    Global warming is causing ocean warming and acidification. The distribution of Heliocidaris erythrogramma coincides with the eastern Australia climate change hot spot, where disproportionate warming makes marine biota particularly vulnerable to climate change. In keeping with near-future climate change scenarios, we determined the interactive effects of warming and acidification on fertilization and development of this echinoid. Experimental treatments (20–26°C, pH 7.6–8.2) were tested in all combinations for the ‘business-as-usual’ scenario, with 20°C/pH 8.2 being ambient. Percentage of fertilization was high (>89%) across all treatments. There was no difference in percentage of normal development in any pH treatment. In elevated temperature conditions, +4°C reduced cleavage by 40 per cent and +6°C by a further 20 per cent. Normal gastrulation fell below 4 per cent at +6°C. At 26°C, development was impaired. As the first study of interactive effects of temperature and pH on sea urchin development, we confirm the thermotolerance and pH resilience of fertilization and embryogenesis within predicted climate change scenarios, with negative effects at upper limits of ocean warming. Our findings place single stressor studies in context and emphasize the need for experiments that address ocean warming and acidification concurrently. Although ocean acidification research has focused on impaired calcification, embryos may not reach the skeletogenic stage in a warm ocean. PMID:19324767

  14. Targeting the impact of agri-environmental policy - Future scenarios in two less favoured areas in Portugal.

    PubMed

    Jones, Nadia; Fleskens, Luuk; Stroosnijder, Leo

    2016-10-01

    Targeting agri-environmental measures (AEM) improves their effectiveness in the delivery of public goods, provided the necessary coordination with other incentives. In less favoured areas (LFA) measures focusing on the conservation of extensive farming contribute to sustainable land management in these areas. In this paper we investigate the implementation of a possible AEM supporting the improvement of permanent pastures coordinated with the extensive livestock and single farm payments actually in place. Through applying a spatially-explicit mixed integer optimisation model we simulate future land use scenarios for two less favoured areas in Portugal (Centro and Alentejo) considering two policy scenarios: a 'targeted AEM', and a 'non-targeted AEM'. We then compare the results with a 'basic policy' option (reflecting a situation without AEM). This is done with regard to landscape-scale effects on the reduction of fire hazard and erosion risk, as well as effects on farm income. The results show that an AEM for permanent pastures would be more cost-effective for erosion and fire hazard mitigation if implemented within a spatially targeted framework. However when cost-effectiveness is assessed with other indicators (e.g. net farm income and share of grazing livestock) 'non-targeted AEM' implementation delivers the best outcome in Alentejo. In Centro the implementation of an AEM involves important losses of income compared to the 'basic policy'. 'Targeted AEM' tends to favour farms in very marginal conditions, i.e. targeting is demonstrated to perform best in landscapes where spatial heterogeneity is higher. The results also show the risk of farm abandonment in the two studied less favoured areas: in all three scenarios more than 30% of arable land is deemed to be abandoned. PMID:27444720

  15. Climate change scenarios experiments predict a future reduction in small pelagic fish recruitment in the Humboldt Current system.

    PubMed

    Brochier, Timothée; Echevin, Vincent; Tam, Jorge; Chaigneau, Alexis; Goubanova, Katerina; Bertrand, Arnaud

    2013-06-01

    The Humboldt Current System (HCS) sustains the world's largest small pelagic fishery. While a cooling of this system has been observed during recent decades, there is debate about the potential impacts of rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations on upwelling dynamics and productivity. Recent studies suggest that under increased atmospheric CO2 scenarios the oceanic stratification may strongly increase and upwelling-favorable winds may remain nearly constant off Peru and increase off Chile. Here we investigate the impact of such climatic conditions on egg and larval dispersal phases, a key stage of small pelagic fish reproduction. We used larval retention rate in a predefined nursery area to provide a proxy for the recruitment level. Numerical experiments are based on hydrodynamics downscaled to the HCS from global simulations forced by pre-industrial (PI), 2 × CO2 and 4 × CO2 scenarios. A biogeochemical model is applied to the PI and 4 × CO2 scenarios to define a time-variable nursery area where larval survival is optimum. We test two distinct values of the oxycline depth that limits larval vertical distribution: One corresponding to the present-day situation and the other corresponding to a shallower oxycline potentially produced by climate change. It appeared that larval retention over the continental shelf increases with enhanced stratification due to regional warming. However, this increase in retention is largely compensated for by a decrease of the nursery area and the shoaling of the oxycline. The underlying dynamics are explained by a combination of stratification effects and mesoscale activity changes. Our results therefore show that future climate change may significantly reduce fish capacity in the HCS with strong ecological, economic and social consequences. PMID:23554213

  16. Targeting the impact of agri-environmental policy - Future scenarios in two less favoured areas in Portugal.

    PubMed

    Jones, Nadia; Fleskens, Luuk; Stroosnijder, Leo

    2016-10-01

    Targeting agri-environmental measures (AEM) improves their effectiveness in the delivery of public goods, provided the necessary coordination with other incentives. In less favoured areas (LFA) measures focusing on the conservation of extensive farming contribute to sustainable land management in these areas. In this paper we investigate the implementation of a possible AEM supporting the improvement of permanent pastures coordinated with the extensive livestock and single farm payments actually in place. Through applying a spatially-explicit mixed integer optimisation model we simulate future land use scenarios for two less favoured areas in Portugal (Centro and Alentejo) considering two policy scenarios: a 'targeted AEM', and a 'non-targeted AEM'. We then compare the results with a 'basic policy' option (reflecting a situation without AEM). This is done with regard to landscape-scale effects on the reduction of fire hazard and erosion risk, as well as effects on farm income. The results show that an AEM for permanent pastures would be more cost-effective for erosion and fire hazard mitigation if implemented within a spatially targeted framework. However when cost-effectiveness is assessed with other indicators (e.g. net farm income and share of grazing livestock) 'non-targeted AEM' implementation delivers the best outcome in Alentejo. In Centro the implementation of an AEM involves important losses of income compared to the 'basic policy'. 'Targeted AEM' tends to favour farms in very marginal conditions, i.e. targeting is demonstrated to perform best in landscapes where spatial heterogeneity is higher. The results also show the risk of farm abandonment in the two studied less favoured areas: in all three scenarios more than 30% of arable land is deemed to be abandoned.

  17. Using High-Resolution Future Climate Scenarios to Forecast Bromus tectorum Invasion in Rocky Mountain National Park

    PubMed Central

    West, Amanda M.; Kumar, Sunil; Wakie, Tewodros; Brown, Cynthia S.; Stohlgren, Thomas J.; Laituri, Melinda; Bromberg, Jim

    2015-01-01

    National Parks are hallmarks of ecosystem preservation in the United States. The introduction of alien invasive plant species threatens protection of these areas. Bromus tectorum L. (commonly called downy brome or cheatgrass), which is found in Rocky Mountain National Park (hereafter, the Park), Colorado, USA, has been implicated in early spring competition with native grasses, decreased soil nitrogen, altered nutrient and hydrologic regimes, and increased fire intensity. We estimated the potential distribution of B. tectorum in the Park based on occurrence records (n = 211), current and future climate, and distance to roads and trails. An ensemble of six future climate scenarios indicated the habitable area of B. tectorum may increase from approximately 5.5% currently to 20.4% of the Park by the year 2050. Using ordination methods we evaluated the climatic space occupied by B. tectorum in the Park and how this space may shift given future climate change. Modeling climate change at a small extent (1,076 km2) and at a fine spatial resolution (90 m) is a novel approach in species distribution modeling, and may provide inference for microclimates not captured in coarse-scale models. Maps from our models serve as high-resolution hypotheses that can be improved over time by land managers to set priorities for surveys and removal of invasive species such as B. tectorum. PMID:25695255

  18. Projecting water withdrawal and supply for future decades in the U.S. under climate change scenarios.

    PubMed

    Roy, Sujoy B; Chen, Limin; Girvetz, Evan H; Maurer, Edwin P; Mills, William B; Grieb, Thomas M

    2012-03-01

    The sustainability of water resources in future decades is likely to be affected by increases in water demand due to population growth, increases in power generation, and climate change. This study presents water withdrawal projections in the United States (U.S.) in 2050 as a result of projected population increases and power generation at the county level as well as the availability of local renewable water supplies. The growth scenario assumes the per capita water use rate for municipal withdrawals to remain at 2005 levels and the water use rates for new thermoelectric plants at levels in modern closed-loop cooling systems. In projecting renewable water supply in future years, median projected monthly precipitation and temperature by sixteen climate models were used to derive available precipitation in 2050 (averaged over 2040-2059). Withdrawals and available precipitation were compared to identify regions that use a large fraction of their renewable local water supply. A water supply sustainability risk index that takes into account additional attributes such as susceptibility to drought, growth in water withdrawal, increased need for storage, and groundwater use was developed to evaluate areas at greater risk. Based on the ranking by the index, high risk areas can be assessed in more mechanistic detail in future work.

  19. Using high-resolution future climate scenarios to forecast Bromus tectorum invasion in Rocky Mountain National Park.

    PubMed

    West, Amanda M; Kumar, Sunil; Wakie, Tewodros; Brown, Cynthia S; Stohlgren, Thomas J; Laituri, Melinda; Bromberg, Jim

    2015-01-01

    National Parks are hallmarks of ecosystem preservation in the United States. The introduction of alien invasive plant species threatens protection of these areas. Bromus tectorum L. (commonly called downy brome or cheatgrass), which is found in Rocky Mountain National Park (hereafter, the Park), Colorado, USA, has been implicated in early spring competition with native grasses, decreased soil nitrogen, altered nutrient and hydrologic regimes, and increased fire intensity. We estimated the potential distribution of B. tectorum in the Park based on occurrence records (n = 211), current and future climate, and distance to roads and trails. An ensemble of six future climate scenarios indicated the habitable area of B. tectorum may increase from approximately 5.5% currently to 20.4% of the Park by the year 2050. Using ordination methods we evaluated the climatic space occupied by B. tectorum in the Park and how this space may shift given future climate change. Modeling climate change at a small extent (1,076 km2) and at a fine spatial resolution (90 m) is a novel approach in species distribution modeling, and may provide inference for microclimates not captured in coarse-scale models. Maps from our models serve as high-resolution hypotheses that can be improved over time by land managers to set priorities for surveys and removal of invasive species such as B. tectorum.

  20. Projected water consumption in future global agriculture: scenarios and related impacts.

    PubMed

    Pfister, Stephan; Bayer, Peter; Koehler, Annette; Hellweg, Stefanie

    2011-09-15

    Global stress on water and land resources is increasing as a consequence of population growth and higher caloric food demand. Many terrestrial ecosystems have already massively been degraded for providing agricultural land, and water scarcity related to irrigation has damaged water dependent ecosystems. Coping with the food and biomass demand of an increased population, while minimizing the impacts of crop production, is therefore a massive upcoming challenge. In this context, we developed four strategies to deliver the biotic output for feeding mankind in 2050. Expansion on suitable and intensification of existing areas are compared to assess associated environmental impacts, including irrigation demand, water stress under climate change, and the productivity of the occupied land. Based on the agricultural production pattern and impacts of the strategies we identified the trade-offs between land and water use. Intensification in regions currently under deficit irrigation can increase agricultural output by up to 30%. However, intensified crop production causes enormous water stress in many locations and might not be a viable solution. Furthermore, intensification alone will not be able to meet future food demand: additionally, a reduction of waste by 50% along the food supply chain or expansion of agricultural land is required for satisfying current per-capita meat and bioenergy consumption. Suitable areas for such expansion are mainly located in Africa, followed by South America. The increased land stress is of smaller concern than the water stress modeled for the intensification case. Therefore, a combination of waste reduction with expansion on suitable pastures generally results as the best option, along with some intensification on selected areas. Our results suggested that minimizing environmental impacts requires fundamental changes in agricultural systems and international cooperation, by producing crops where it is most environmentally efficient and not

  1. Phytoremediation of textile dyes and effluents: Current scenario and future prospects.

    PubMed

    Khandare, Rahul V; Govindwar, Sanjay P

    2015-12-01

    , Typha domingensis, Pogonatherum crinitum and Alternanthera philoxeroides. The developed phytoreactors gave noteworthy treatments, and significant reductions in biological oxygen demand, chemical oxygen demand, American Dye Manufacturers Institute color removal value, total organic carbon, total dissolved solids, total suspended solids, turbidity and conductivity of the dye effluents after phytoremediation. Metabolites of dyes and effluents have been assayed for phytotoxicity, cytotoxicity, genotoxicity and animal toxicity and were proved to be non/less toxic than untreated compounds. Effective strategies to handle fluctuating dye load and hydraulics for in situ treatment needs scientific attention. Future studies on development of transgenic plants for efficacious phytodegradation of textile dyes should be focused.

  2. Phytoremediation of textile dyes and effluents: Current scenario and future prospects.

    PubMed

    Khandare, Rahul V; Govindwar, Sanjay P

    2015-12-01

    , Typha domingensis, Pogonatherum crinitum and Alternanthera philoxeroides. The developed phytoreactors gave noteworthy treatments, and significant reductions in biological oxygen demand, chemical oxygen demand, American Dye Manufacturers Institute color removal value, total organic carbon, total dissolved solids, total suspended solids, turbidity and conductivity of the dye effluents after phytoremediation. Metabolites of dyes and effluents have been assayed for phytotoxicity, cytotoxicity, genotoxicity and animal toxicity and were proved to be non/less toxic than untreated compounds. Effective strategies to handle fluctuating dye load and hydraulics for in situ treatment needs scientific attention. Future studies on development of transgenic plants for efficacious phytodegradation of textile dyes should be focused. PMID:26386310

  3. Feedbacks between ice and ocean dynamics at the West Antarctic Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf in future global warming scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Goeller, Sebastian; Timmermann, Ralph

    2016-04-01

    The ice flow at the margins of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is moderated by large ice shelves. Their buttressing effect substantially controls the mass balance of the WAIS and thus its contribution to sea level rise. The stability of these ice shelves results from the balance of mass gain by accumulation and ice flow from the adjacent ice sheet and mass loss by calving and basal melting due to the ocean heat flux. Recent results of ocean circulation models indicate that warm circumpolar water of the Southern Ocean may override the submarine slope front of the Antarctic Continent and boost basal ice shelf melting. In particular, ocean simulations for several of the IPCC's future climate scenarios demonstrate the redirection of a warm coastal current into the Filchner Trough and underneath the Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf within the next decades. In this study, we couple the finite elements ocean circulation model FESOM and the three-dimensional thermomechanical ice flow model RIMBAY to investigate the complex interactions between ocean and ice dynamics at the Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf. We focus on the impact of a changing ice shelf cavity on ocean dynamics as well as the feedback of the resulting sub-shelf melting rates on the ice shelf geometry and implications for the dynamics of the adjacent marine-based Westantarctic Ice Sheet. Our simulations reveal the high sensitivity of grounding line migration to ice-ocean interactions within the Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf and emphasize the importance of coupled model studies for realistic assessments of the Antarctic mass balance in future global warming scenarios.

  4. Assessing hydrological drought risk for the irrigation sector in future climate scenarios: lessons learned from the Apulia case study (Italy)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Critto, Andrea; Torresan, Silvia; Ronco, Paolo; Zennaro, Federica; Santini, Monia; Trabucco, Antonio; Marcomini, Antonio

    2016-04-01

    Climate change is already affecting the frequency of drought events which may threaten the current stocks of water resources and thus the availability of freshwater for the irrigation. The achievement of a sustainable equilibrium between the availability of water resources and the irrigation demand is essentially related to the planning and implementation of evidence-based adaptation strategies and actions. In this sense, the improvement (of existing) and the development of (new) appropriate risk assessment methods and tools to evaluate the impact of drought events on irrigated crops is fundamental in order to assure that the agricultural yields are appropriate to meet the current and future food and market demand. This study evaluates the risk of hydrological drought on the irrigated agronomic compartment of Apulia, a semi-arid region in Southern Italy. We applied a stepwise Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) procedure, based on the consecutive analysis of hazards, exposure, vulnerability and risks, integrating the qualitative and quantitative available information. Future climate projections for the timeframes 2021-2050 and 2041-2070 were provided by COSMO-CLM under the radiative forcing RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The run-off feeding the water stocks of the most important irrigation reservoirs in Apulia was then modeled with Arc-SWAT. Hence, the hazard analysis was carried out in order to estimate the degree of fulfillment of actual irrigation demand satisfied by water supply of different reservoirs in future scenarios. Vulnerability of exposed irrigated crops was evaluated depending on three factors accounting for crop yield variation vs water stress, water losses along the irrigation network, diversification of water supply. Resulting risk and vulnerability maps allowed: the identification of Reclamation Consortia at higher risk of not fulfilling their future irrigation demand (e.g. Capitanata Reclamation Consortia in RCP8.5 2041-2070 scenario); the ranking of most

  5. ESP v2.0: Enhanced method for exploring emission impacts of future scenarios in the United States – addressing spatial allocation

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Emission Scenario Projection (ESP) method produces future-year air pollutant emissions for mesoscale air quality modeling applications. We present ESP v2.0, which expands upon ESP v1.0 by spatially allocating future-year emissions to account for projected population and land ...

  6. From provocative narrative scenarios to quantitative biophysical model results: Simulating plausible futures to 2070 in an urbanizing agricultural watershed in Wisconsin, USA

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Booth, E.; Chen, X.; Motew, M.; Qiu, J.; Zipper, S. C.; Carpenter, S. R.; Kucharik, C. J.; Steven, L. I.

    2015-12-01

    Scenario analysis is a powerful tool for envisioning future social-ecological change and its consequences on human well-being. Scenarios that integrate qualitative storylines and quantitative biophysical models can create a vivid picture of these potential futures but the integration process is not straightforward. We present - using the Yahara Watershed in southern Wisconsin (USA) as a case study - a method for developing quantitative inputs (climate, land use/cover, and land management) to drive a biophysical modeling suite based on four provocative and contrasting narrative scenarios that describe plausible futures of the watershed to 2070. The modeling suite consists of an agroecosystem model (AgroIBIS-VSF), hydrologic routing model (THMB), and empirical lake water quality model and estimates several biophysical indicators to evaluate the watershed system under each scenario. These indicators include water supply, lake flooding, agricultural production, and lake water quality. Climate (daily precipitation and air temperature) for each scenario was determined using statistics from 210 different downscaled future climate projections for two 20-year time periods (2046-2065 and 2081-2100) and modified using a stochastic weather generator to allow flexibility for matching specific climate events within the scenario narratives. Land use/cover for each scenario was determined first by quantifying changes in areal extent every decade for 15 categories at the watershed scale to be consistent with the storyline events and theme. Next, these changes were spatially distributed using a rule-based framework based on land suitability metrics that determine transition probabilities. Finally, agricultural inputs including manure and fertilizer application rates were determined for each scenario based on the prevalence of livestock, water quality regulations, and technological innovations. Each scenario is compared using model inputs (maps and time-series of land use/cover and

  7. Vegetation projections for Wind Cave National Park with three future climate scenarios: Final report in completion of Task Agreement J8W07100052

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    King, David A.; Bachelet, Dominique M.; Symstad, Amy J.

    2013-01-01

    Since the initial application of MC1 to a small portion of WICA (Bachelet et al. 2000), the model has been altered to improve model performance with the inclusion of dynamic fire. Applying this improved version to WICA required substantial recalibration, during which we have made a number of improvements to MC1 that will be incorporated as permanent changes. In this report we document these changes and our calibration procedure following a brief overview of the model. We compare the projections of current vegetation to the current state of the park and present projections of vegetation dynamics under future climates downscaled from three GCMs selected to represent the existing range in available GCM projections. In doing so, we examine the consequences of different management options regarding fire and grazing, major aspects of biotic management at Wind Cave.

  8. Exploring the Effects of GCM Uncertainty on the Hydrology and Water Allocation of a Small Mountain Watershed in Northern British Columbia, Canada.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hirshfield, F.; Anderson, A.; Sui, J.

    2014-12-01

    Climate change and allocation of water supplies are causing water shortages and low flow conditions that threaten aquatic ecosystems around the world. Small mountain streams in Western Canada are experiencing increased water use from small diversion hydropower, increasing population, mining, agriculture, and changing energy extraction techniques. In addition, there are very few gauging sites for baseline water data because of the rugged mountain terrain and cold climate. Baseline data is important due to the sensitivity of small mountain streams to shifts in timing of snow pack melt and mid-winter melting, especially near and in coastal regions. Here we use HBV-EC to simulate the range in future flow in a northern mountain watershed under various climate scenarios and explore the uncertainty induced by different GMC models and downscaling for the Goathorn Creek watershed. To explore the effects of GCM model variability we selected four models (CGCM3, ECHAM5, GFDL-CM2.1, and CSIRO-Mk) and used the TreeGen downscaling method to generate multiple ensembles for emissions scenarios (A1B, A2 and B1) for each GCM model. The calibrated HBV-EC model was sensitive to the climate inputs and produced a 50 percent variation in flows for the 2050's and 2080's with the greatest reduction in mean flows by 0.33 m3/s predicted for the 2020's climate. Although, modeled future discharge is highly variable, some consistent trends are useful for water managers: results suggest spring discharge may occur up to two months earlier (CGCM3, A2 scenario), but was constantly one month earlier for all emission scenarios. This can lead to feasible management strategies such as granting fewer water permits or in areas with high future demand issuing permits with provisions for future storage.

  9. Investigating Future Climate Scenarios

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dempsey, Chris; Bodzin, Alec; Anastasio, David; Sahagian, Dork; Cirucci, Lori

    2012-01-01

    One of the most alarming impacts of projected climate change is a significant rise in sea level. Sea level has varied by hundreds of meters over geologic time, yet these changes have generally been slow paced, allowing ecosystems to adjust to changing land surface and marine habitats. Since the Industrial Revolution, anthropogenic emissions have…

  10. Future projections of insured losses in the German private building sector following the A1B climatic change scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Held, H.; Gerstengarbe, F.-W.; Hattermann, F.; Pinto, J. G.; Ulbrich, U.; Böhm, U.; Born, K.; Büchner, M.; Donat, M. G.; Kücken, M.; Leckebusch, G. C.; Nissen, K.; Nocke, T.; Österle, H.; Pardowitz, T.; Werner, P. C.; Burghoff, O.; Broecker, U.; Kubik, A.

    2012-04-01

    We present an overview of a complementary-approaches impact project dealing with the consequences of climate change for the natural hazard branch of the insurance industry in Germany. The project was conducted by four academic institutions together with the German Insurance Association (GDV) and finalized in autumn 2011. A causal chain is modeled that goes from global warming projections over regional meteorological impacts to regional economic losses for private buildings, hereby fully covering the area of Germany. This presentation will focus on wind storm related losses, although the method developed had also been applied in part to hail and flood impact losses. For the first time, the GDV supplied their collected set of insurance cases, dating back for decades, for such an impact study. These data were used to calibrate and validate event-based damage functions which in turn were driven by three different types of regional climate models to generate storm loss projections. The regional models were driven by a triplet of ECHAM5 experiments following the A1B scenario which were found representative in the recent ENSEMBLES intercomparison study. In our multi-modeling approach we used two types of regional climate models that conceptually differ at maximum: a dynamical model (CCLM) and a statistical model based on the idea of biased bootstrapping (STARS). As a third option we pursued a hybrid approach (statistical-dynamical downscaling). For the assessment of climate change impacts, the buildings' infrastructure and their economic value is kept at current values. For all three approaches, a significant increase of average storm losses and extreme event return levels in the German private building sector is found for future decades assuming an A1B-scenario. However, the three projections differ somewhat in terms of magnitude and regional differentiation. We have developed a formalism that allows us to express the combined effect of multi-source uncertainty on return

  11. Source-Based Modeling Of Urban Stormwater Quality Response to the Selected Scenarios Combining Future Changes in Climate and Socio-Economic Factors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Borris, Matthias; Leonhardt, Günther; Marsalek, Jiri; Österlund, Heléne; Viklander, Maria

    2016-08-01

    The assessment of future trends in urban stormwater quality should be most helpful for ensuring the effectiveness of the existing stormwater quality infrastructure in the future and mitigating the associated impacts on receiving waters. Combined effects of expected changes in climate and socio-economic factors on stormwater quality were examined in two urban test catchments by applying a source-based computer model (WinSLAMM) for TSS and three heavy metals (copper, lead, and zinc) for various future scenarios. Generally, both catchments showed similar responses to the future scenarios and pollutant loads were generally more sensitive to changes in socio-economic factors (i.e., increasing traffic intensities, growth and intensification of the individual land-uses) than in the climate. Specifically, for the selected Intermediate socio-economic scenario and two climate change scenarios (RSP = 2.6 and 8.5), the TSS loads from both catchments increased by about 10 % on average, but when applying the Intermediate climate change scenario (RCP = 4.5) for two SSPs, the Sustainability and Security scenarios (SSP1 and SSP3), the TSS loads increased on average by 70 %. Furthermore, it was observed that well-designed and maintained stormwater treatment facilities targeting local pollution hotspots exhibited the potential to significantly improve stormwater quality, however, at potentially high costs. In fact, it was possible to reduce pollutant loads from both catchments under the future Sustainability scenario (on average, e.g., TSS were reduced by 20 %), compared to the current conditions. The methodology developed in this study was found useful for planning climate change adaptation strategies in the context of local conditions.

  12. Source-Based Modeling Of Urban Stormwater Quality Response to the Selected Scenarios Combining Future Changes in Climate and Socio-Economic Factors.

    PubMed

    Borris, Matthias; Leonhardt, Günther; Marsalek, Jiri; Österlund, Heléne; Viklander, Maria

    2016-08-01

    The assessment of future trends in urban stormwater quality should be most helpful for ensuring the effectiveness of the existing stormwater quality infrastructure in the future and mitigating the associated impacts on receiving waters. Combined effects of expected changes in climate and socio-economic factors on stormwater quality were examined in two urban test catchments by applying a source-based computer model (WinSLAMM) for TSS and three heavy metals (copper, lead, and zinc) for various future scenarios. Generally, both catchments showed similar responses to the future scenarios and pollutant loads were generally more sensitive to changes in socio-economic factors (i.e., increasing traffic intensities, growth and intensification of the individual land-uses) than in the climate. Specifically, for the selected Intermediate socio-economic scenario and two climate change scenarios (RSP = 2.6 and 8.5), the TSS loads from both catchments increased by about 10 % on average, but when applying the Intermediate climate change scenario (RCP = 4.5) for two SSPs, the Sustainability and Security scenarios (SSP1 and SSP3), the TSS loads increased on average by 70 %. Furthermore, it was observed that well-designed and maintained stormwater treatment facilities targeting local pollution hotspots exhibited the potential to significantly improve stormwater quality, however, at potentially high costs. In fact, it was possible to reduce pollutant loads from both catchments under the future Sustainability scenario (on average, e.g., TSS were reduced by 20 %), compared to the current conditions. The methodology developed in this study was found useful for planning climate change adaptation strategies in the context of local conditions.

  13. Source-Based Modeling Of Urban Stormwater Quality Response to the Selected Scenarios Combining Future Changes in Climate and Socio-Economic Factors.

    PubMed

    Borris, Matthias; Leonhardt, Günther; Marsalek, Jiri; Österlund, Heléne; Viklander, Maria

    2016-08-01

    The assessment of future trends in urban stormwater quality should be most helpful for ensuring the effectiveness of the existing stormwater quality infrastructure in the future and mitigating the associated impacts on receiving waters. Combined effects of expected changes in climate and socio-economic factors on stormwater quality were examined in two urban test catchments by applying a source-based computer model (WinSLAMM) for TSS and three heavy metals (copper, lead, and zinc) for various future scenarios. Generally, both catchments showed similar responses to the future scenarios and pollutant loads were generally more sensitive to changes in socio-economic factors (i.e., increasing traffic intensities, growth and intensification of the individual land-uses) than in the climate. Specifically, for the selected Intermediate socio-economic scenario and two climate change scenarios (RSP = 2.6 and 8.5), the TSS loads from both catchments increased by about 10 % on average, but when applying the Intermediate climate change scenario (RCP = 4.5) for two SSPs, the Sustainability and Security scenarios (SSP1 and SSP3), the TSS loads increased on average by 70 %. Furthermore, it was observed that well-designed and maintained stormwater treatment facilities targeting local pollution hotspots exhibited the potential to significantly improve stormwater quality, however, at potentially high costs. In fact, it was possible to reduce pollutant loads from both catchments under the future Sustainability scenario (on average, e.g., TSS were reduced by 20 %), compared to the current conditions. The methodology developed in this study was found useful for planning climate change adaptation strategies in the context of local conditions. PMID:27153819

  14. Effects of adjusting cropping systems on utilization efficiency of climatic resources in Northeast China under future climate scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guo, Jianping; Zhao, Junfang; Xu, Yanhong; Chu, Zheng; Mu, Jia; Zhao, Qian

    Quantitatively evaluating the effects of adjusting cropping systems on the utilization efficiency of climatic resources under climate change is an important task for assessing food security in China. To understand these effects, we used daily climate variables obtained from the regional climate model RegCM3 from 1981 to 2100 under the A1B scenario and crop observations from 53 agro-meteorological experimental stations from 1981 to 2010 in Northeast China. Three one-grade zones of cropping systems were divided by heat, water, topography and crop-type, including the semi-arid areas of the northeast and northwest (III), the one crop area of warm-cool plants in semi-humid plain or hilly regions of the northeast (IV), and the two crop area in irrigated farmland in the Huanghuaihai Plain (VI). An agro-ecological zone model was used to calculate climatic potential productivities. The effects of adjusting cropping systems on climate resource utilization in Northeast China under the A1B scenario were assessed. The results indicated that from 1981 to 2100 in the III, IV and VI areas, the planting boundaries of different cropping systems in Northeast China obviously shifted toward the north and the east based on comprehensively considering the heat and precipitation resources. However, due to high temperature stress, the climatic potential productivity of spring maize was reduced in the future. Therefore, adjusting the cropping system is an effective way to improve the climatic potential productivity and climate resource utilization. Replacing the one crop in one year model (spring maize) by the two crops in one year model (winter wheat and summer maize) significantly increased the total climatic potential productivity and average utilization efficiencies. During the periods of 2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100, the average total climatic potential productivities of winter wheat and summer maize increased by 9.36%, 11.88% and 12.13% compared to that of spring maize

  15. Modeling tidal freshwater marsh sustainability in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta under a broad suite of potential future scenarios

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Swanson, Kathleen M.; Drexler, Judith Z.; Fuller, Christopher C.; Schoellhamer, David H.

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, we report on the adaptation and application of a one-dimensional marsh surface elevation model, the Wetland Accretion Rate Model of Ecosystem Resilience (WARMER), to explore the conditions that lead to sustainable tidal freshwater marshes in the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta. We defined marsh accretion parameters to encapsulate the range of observed values over historic and modern time-scales based on measurements from four marshes in high and low energy fluvial environments as well as possible future trends in sediment supply and mean sea level. A sensitivity analysis of 450 simulations was conducted encompassing a range of eScholarship provides open access, scholarly publishing services to the University of California and delivers a dynamic research platform to scholars worldwide. porosity values, initial elevations, organic and inorganic matter accumulation rates, and sea-level rise rates. For the range of inputs considered, the magnitude of SLR over the next century was the primary driver of marsh surface elevation change. Sediment supply was the secondary control. More than 84% of the scenarios resulted in sustainable marshes with 88 cm of SLR by 2100, but only 32% and 11% of the scenarios resulted in surviving marshes when SLR was increased to 133 cm and 179 cm, respectively. Marshes situated in high-energy zones were marginally more resilient than those in low-energy zones because of their higher inorganic sediment supply. Overall, the results from this modeling exercise suggest that marshes at the upstream reaches of the Delta—where SLR may be attenuated—and high energy marshes along major channels with high inorganic sediment accumulation rates will be more resilient to global SLR in excess of 88 cm over the next century than their downstream and low-energy counterparts. However, considerable uncertainties exist in the projected rates of sea-level rise and sediment avail-ability. In addition, more research is needed to constrain future

  16. Identifying and Mitigating Potential Nutrient and Sediment Hot Spots under a Future Scenario in the Missouri River Basin

    SciTech Connect

    Wu, May; Zhang, Zhonglong

    2015-09-01

    Using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) for large-scale watershed modeling could be useful for evaluating the quality of the water in regions that are dominated by nonpoint sources in order to identify potential “hot spots” for which mitigating strategies could be further developed. An analysis of water quality under future scenarios in which changes in land use would be made to accommodate increased biofuel production was developed for the Missouri River Basin (MoRB) based on a SWAT model application. The analysis covered major agricultural crops and biofuel feedstock in the MoRB, including pasture land, hay, corn, soybeans, wheat, and switchgrass. The analysis examined, at multiple temporal and spatial scales, how nitrate, organic nitrogen, and total nitrogen; phosphorus, organic phosphorus, inorganic phosphorus, and total phosphorus; suspended sediments; and water flow (water yield) would respond to the shifts in land use that would occur under proposed future scenarios. The analysis was conducted at three geospatial scales: (1) large tributary basin scale (two: Upper MoRB and Lower MoRB); (2) regional watershed scale (seven: Upper Missouri River, Middle Missouri River, Middle Lower Missouri River, Lower Missouri River, Yellowstone River, Platte River, and Kansas River); and (3) eight-digit hydrologic unit (HUC-8) subbasin scale (307 subbasins). Results showed that subbasin-level variations were substantial. Nitrogen loadings decreased across the entire Upper MoRB, and they increased in several subbasins in the Lower MoRB. Most nitrate reductions occurred in lateral flow. Also at the subbasin level, phosphorus in organic, sediment, and soluble forms was reduced by 35%, 45%, and 65%, respectively. Suspended sediments increased in 68% of the subbasins. The water yield decreased in 62% of the subbasins. In the Kansas River watershed, the water quality improved significantly with regard to every nitrogen and phosphorus compound. The improvement was

  17. Multi-GCM Climate Projection for the Mediterranean and Related Impact on the Forest Fire Risk (with a stress on Sardinia)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dubrovsky, M.; Duce, P.; Arca, B.; Pellizzaro, G.

    2012-04-01

    PRASCE project (2008-2011) aimed at a development of the probabilistic projection of climate accounting for the uncertainties coming from various sources. The methodology was based on linking the stochastic weather generator (which may represent uncertainty due to natural climate variability) with the GCM-based climate change scenarios, which are determined by the pattern scaling method and account for uncertainties in emission scenario, climate sensitivity and between-GCM variability. The methodology is being used to create synthetic weather series representing present and future climates for various climate change impact experiments. One of the regions under focus in this project was the Mediterranean, especially Sardinia. The presentation will consist of two parts: (1) Multi-GCM climate change scenarios for the Mediterranean. (i) The maps will show the probabilistic (based on all GCMs included in IPCC-AR4 dataset) projection of temperature, precipitation and Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI). In addition, the scenarios will include changes of climatic characteristics (also being the parameters of the weather generator), which affect high frequency variability, e.g. changes in probability of wet day occurrence and variability of daily values. (ii) Options for choosing a representative subset of GCMs from all available GCMs will be discussed. This part is motivated by the fact, that some climate change impact studies do not allow to employ all available GCMs, so the task arise to choose the subset of GCMs based on the quality of GCMs and ability of the subset to represent the between GCM uncertainty. To demonstrate the methodology, the procedure will be applied to Sardinia. (2) Assessment of possible impacts of climate change on wildland fire risk. The M&Rfi weather generator linked to climate change scenarios derived from a subset of available GCMs will be used to create synthetic weather series (air temperature and relative humidity, wind speed

  18. Transient Eddies in the UCLA GCM

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    White, G. H.

    1985-01-01

    The simulation of transient eddies in the nine level UCLA general circulation model (GCM) was examined and compared to observations, with emphasis on the Northern Hemisphere winter. Qualitatively, the UCLA GCM reproduces many features of the observed circulation and the relationship between the time mean flow and transient eddies; however, the magnitudes of transient eddies in the UCLA GCM, particularly at frequencies lower than those associated with baroclinic instability, appear to be much less than those observed. The pattern of low level transient eddy heat fluxes were similar to observations and acted to dissipate the low level seasonal mean temperature field. The simulated transient eddy kinetic energy at 300 mb is given for eddies of all time scales shorter than a season.

  19. Evaluation of Potential Wetlands to Reduce Peak Flows in Future Climate Scenarios in the Eagle Creek Watershed, IN

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Walters, K. M.; Babbar-Sebens, M.

    2014-12-01

    Global climate change is expected to increase the severity of floods and droughts and the frequency of extreme streamflow events in the Midwestern United States. Managing these projected impacts poses a major challenge for water resources, conservation, and land use management. Wetlands have been considered as a conservation strategy and work to increase the capacity of watersheds by storing runoff upstream. The implementation of wetlands, especially in tile-drained agricultural watersheds, can reduce peak flows and help mitigate the anticipated impacts of climate change. The goal of this study was to evaluate the long-term performance of wetlands to reduce peak flows in future climate scenarios in the Eagle Creek Watershed in Indiana. A secondary goal of this research was to establish a methodology for incorporating climate change into hydrological models to conduct long-term land management studies and decisions. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was forced with an ensemble of bias corrected climate projections from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) to evaluate the impacts of climate change on watershed hydrology and the ability of wetlands to reduce peak flows. Long-term monthly streamflow results predicted a slight increase in streamflow in the winter and a slight decrease in the summer from the past (1971-2000) to future (2041-2070) time periods. About half of the climate realizations produced an increase in the 5% exceedance flow and half a decrease, but all predictions agreed that high flow events will increase in frequency in the winter and decrease in the spring and summer. Results from the wetland analysis showed that if all potential wetlands identified in a previous study are installed in the watershed, maximum peak flow reductions of around 20-50 cubic meters per second for the past and future, as well as decreased frequency of extreme events, can be seen. Wetlands proved to be a robust solution for

  20. Chemical Transport and Reduced-Form Models for Assessing Air Quality Impacts of Current and Future Energy Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Adams, P. J.

    2015-12-01

    Though essential for informed decision-making, it is challenging to estimate the air quality and public health impacts associated with current and future energy generation scenarios because the analysis must address the complicated atmospheric processes that air pollutants undergo: emissions, dispersion, chemistry, and removal. Employing a chemical transport model (CTM) is the most rigorous way to address these atmospheric processes. However, CTMs are expensive from a computational standpoint and, therefore, beyond the reach of policy analysis for many types of problems. On the other hand, previously available reduced-form models used for policy analysis fall short of the rigor of CTMs and may lead to biased results. To address this gap, we developed the Estimating Air pollution Social Impacts Using Regression (EASIUR) method, which builds parameterizations that predict per-tonne social costs and intake fractions for pollutants emitted from any location in the United States. Derived from a large database of tagged CTM simulations, the EASIUR method predicts social costs almost indistinguishable from a full CTM but with negligible computational requirements. We found that the average mortality-related social costs from inorganic PM2.5 and its precursors in the United States are 150,000-180,000/t EC, 21,000-34,000/t SO2, 4,200-15,000/t NOx, and 29,000-85,000/t NH3. This talk will demonstrate examples of using both CTMs and reduced-form models for assessing air quality impacts associated with current energy production activities as well as a future deployment of carbon capture and sequestration.

  1. The Volta Grande do Xingu: reconstruction of past environments and forecasting of future scenarios of a unique Amazonian fluvial landscape

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sawakuchi, A. O.; Hartmann, G. A.; Sawakuchi, H. O.; Pupim, F. N.; Bertassoli, D. J.; Parra, M.; Antinao, J. L.; Sousa, L. M.; Sabaj Pérez, M. H.; Oliveira, P. E.; Santos, R. A.; Savian, J. F.; Grohmann, C. H.; Medeiros, V. B.; McGlue, M. M.; Bicudo, D. C.; Faustino, S. B.

    2015-12-01

    The Xingu River is a large clearwater river in eastern Amazonia and its downstream sector, known as the Volta Grande do Xingu ("Xingu Great Bend"), is a unique fluvial landscape that plays an important role in the biodiversity, biogeochemistry and prehistoric and historic peopling of Amazonia. The sedimentary dynamics of the Xingu River in the Volta Grande and its downstream sector will be shifted in the next few years due to the construction of dams associated with the Belo Monte hydropower project. Impacts on river biodiversity and carbon cycling are anticipated, especially due to likely changes in sedimentation and riverbed characteristics. This research project aims to define the geological and climate factors responsible for the development of the Volta Grande landscape and to track its environmental changes during the Holocene, using the modern system as a reference. In this context, sediment cores, riverbed rock and sediment samples and greenhouse gas (GHG) samples were collected in the Volta Grande do Xingu and adjacent upstream and downstream sectors. The reconstruction of past conditions in the Volta Grande is necessary for forecasting future scenarios and defining biodiversity conservation strategies under the operation of Belo Monte dams. This paper describes the scientific questions of the project and the sampling surveys performed by an international team of Earth scientists and biologists during the dry seasons of 2013 and 2014. Preliminary results are presented and a future workshop is planned to integrate results, present data to the scientific community and discuss possibilities for deeper drilling in the Xingu ria to extend the sedimentary record of the Volta Grande do Xingu.

  2. Forecasting landscape effects of Mississippi River diversions on elevation and accretion in Louisiana deltaic wetlands under future environmental uncertainty scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Hongqing; Steyer, Gregory D.; Couvillion, Brady R.; Rybczyk, John M.; Beck, Holly J.; Sleavin, William J.; Meselhe, Ehab A.; Allison, Mead A.; Boustany, Ronald G.; Fischenich, Craig J.; Rivera-Monroy, Victor H.

    2014-02-01

    Large sediment diversions are proposed and expected to build new wetlands to alleviate the extensive wetland loss (5000 km2) affecting coastal Louisiana during the last 78 years. Current assessment and prediction of the impacts of sediment diversions have focused on the capture and dispersal of both water and sediment on the adjacent river side and the immediate outfall marsh area. However, little is known about the effects of sediment diversions on existing wetland surface elevation and vertical accretion dynamics in the receiving basin at the landscape scale. In this study, we used a spatial wetland surface elevation model developed in support of Louisiana's 2012 Coastal Master Plan to examine such landscape-scale effects of sediment diversions. Multiple sediment diversion projects were incorporated in the model to simulate surface elevation and vertical accretion for the next 50 years (2010-2060) under two environmental (moderate and less optimistic) scenarios. Specifically, we examined landscape-scale surface elevation and vertical accretion trends under diversions with different geographical locations, diverted discharge rates, and geomorphic characteristics of the receiving basin. Model results indicate that small diversions (<283 m3 s-1) tend to have limited effects of reducing landscape-scale elevation loss (<3%) compared to a future without action (FWOA) condition. Large sediment diversions (>1500 m3 s-1) are required to achieve landscape-level benefits to promote surface elevation via vertical accretion to keep pace with rising sea level.

  3. Transportation Energy Futures Series: Alternative Fuel Infrastructure Expansion: Costs, Resources, Production Capacity, and Retail Availability for Low-Carbon Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Melaina, M. W.; Heath, G.; Sandor, D.; Steward, D.; Vimmerstedt, L.; Warner, E.; Webster, K. W.

    2013-04-01

    Achieving the Department of Energy target of an 80% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 depends on transportation-related strategies combining technology innovation, market adoption, and changes in consumer behavior. This study examines expanding low-carbon transportation fuel infrastructure to achieve deep GHG emissions reductions, with an emphasis on fuel production facilities and retail components serving light-duty vehicles. Three distinct low-carbon fuel supply scenarios are examined: Portfolio: Successful deployment of a range of advanced vehicle and fuel technologies; Combustion: Market dominance by hybridized internal combustion engine vehicles fueled by advanced biofuels and natural gas; Electrification: Market dominance by electric drive vehicles in the LDV sector, including battery electric, plug-in hybrid, and fuel cell vehicles, that are fueled by low-carbon electricity and hydrogen. A range of possible low-carbon fuel demand outcomes are explored in terms of the scale and scope of infrastructure expansion requirements and evaluated based on fuel costs, energy resource utilization, fuel production infrastructure expansion, and retail infrastructure expansion for LDVs. This is one of a series of reports produced as a result of the Transportation Energy Futures (TEF) project, a Department of Energy-sponsored multi-agency project initiated to pinpoint underexplored transportation-related strategies for abating GHGs and reducing petroleum dependence.

  4. Lethal effects of experimental warming approximating a future climate scenario on southern African quartz-field succulents: a pilot study.

    PubMed

    Musil, Charles F; Schmiedel, Ute; Midgley, Guy F

    2005-02-01

    Here we examine the response of succulents in a global biodiversity hot spot to experimental warming consistent with a future African climate scenario. Passive daytime warming (averaging 5.5 degrees C above ambient) of the natural vegetation was achieved with 18 transparent hexagonal open-top chamber arrays randomized in three different quartz-field communities. After 4-months summer treatment, the specialized-dwarf and shrubby succulents displayed between 2.1 and 4.9 times greater plant and canopy mortalities in the open-top chambers than in the control plots. Those surviving in cooler ventilated areas and shaded refuges in the chambers had lower starch concentrations and water contents; the shrubby succulents also exhibited diminished chlorophyll concentrations. It is concluded that current thermal regimes are likely to be closely proximate to tolerable extremes for many endemic succulents in the region, and that anthropogenic warming could significantly exceed their thermal thresholds. Further investigation is required to elucidate the importance of associated moisture deficits in these warming experiments, a potential consequence of supplementary (fog and dew) precipitation interception by open-top chambers and higher evaporation therein, on plant mortalities.

  5. Forecasting landscape effects of Mississippi River diversions on elevation and accretion in Louisiana deltaic wetlands under future environmental uncertainty scenarios

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wang, Hongqing; Steyer, Gregory D.; Couvillion, Brady R.; John M. Rybczyk,; Beck, Holly J.; William J. Sleavin,; Ehab A. Meselhe,; Mead A. Allison,; Ronald G. Boustany,; Craig J. Fischenich,; Victor H. Rivera-Monroy,

    2014-01-01

    Large sediment diversions are proposed and expected to build new wetlands to alleviate the extensive wetland loss (5,000 km2) affecting coastal Louisiana during the last 78 years. Current assessment and prediction of the impacts of sediment diversions have focused on the capture and dispersal of both water and sediment on the adjacent river side and the immediate outfall marsh area. However, little is known about the effects of sediment diversions on existing wetland surface elevation and vertical accretion dynamics in the receiving basin at the landscape scale. In this study, we used a spatial wetland surface elevation model developed in support of Louisiana's 2012 Coastal Master Plan to examine such landscape-scale effects of sediment diversions. Multiple sediment diversion projects were incorporated in the model to simulate surface elevation and vertical accretion for the next 50 years (2010-2060) under two environmental (moderate and less optimistic) scenarios. Specifically, we examined landscape-scale surface elevation and vertical accretion trends under diversions with different geographical locations, diverted discharge rates, and geomorphic characteristics of the receiving basin. Model results indicate that small diversions (< 283 m3 s-1) tend to have limited effects of reducing landscape-scale elevation loss (< 3%) compared to a future without action (FWOA) condition. Large sediment diversions (> 1,500 m3 s-1) are required to achieve landscape-level benefits to promote surface elevation via vertical accretion to keep pace with rising sea level.

  6. Land-use impacts on water resources and protected areas: applications of state-and-transition simulation modeling of future scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wilson, T. S.; Sleeter, B. M.; Sherba, J.; Cameron, D.

    2014-12-01

    Human land use will increasingly contribute to habitat losses and water shortages in California, given future population projections and associated demand for agricultural land. Understanding how land-use change may impact future water use and where existing protected areas may be threatened by land-use conversion will be important if effective, sustainable management approaches are to be implemented. We used a state-and-transition simulation modeling (STSM) framework to simulate spatially-explicit (1 km2) historical (1992-2010) and future (2011-2060) land-use change for 52 California counties within the Mediterranean California ecoregion. Historical land use change estimates were derived from the Farmland Mapping and Monitoring Program (FMMP) dataset and attributed with county-level agricultural water-use data from the California Department of Water Resources (CDWR). Six future alternative land-use scenarios were developed and modeled using the historical land-use change estimates and land-use projections based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2 and B1 scenarios. Resulting spatial land-use scenario outputs were combined based on scenario agreement and a land conversion threat index developed to evaluate vulnerability of existing protected areas. Modeled scenario output of county-level agricultural water use data were also summarized, enabling examination of alternative water use futures. We present results of two separate applications of STSM of land-use change, demonstrating the utility of STSM in analyzing land-use related impacts on water resources as well as potential threats to existing protected land. Exploring a range of alternative, yet plausible, land-use change impacts will help to better inform resource management and mitigation strategies.

  7. Study of the impact of cruise and passenger ships on a Mediterranean port city air quality - Study of future emission mitigation scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liora, Natalia; Poupkou, Anastasia; Kontos, Serafim; Giannaros, Christos; Melas, Dimitrios

    2015-04-01

    An increase of the passenger ships traffic is expected in the Mediterranean Sea as targeted by the EU Blue Growth initiative. This increase is expected to impact the Mediterranean port-cities air quality considering not only the conventional atmospheric pollutants but also the toxic ones that are emitted by the ships (e.g. Nickel). The aim of this study is the estimation of the present and future time pollutant emissions from cruise and passenger maritime transport in the port area of Thessaloniki (Greece) as well as the impact of those emissions on the city air quality. Cruise and passenger ship emissions have been estimated for the year 2013 over a 100m spatial resolution grid which covers the greater port area of Thessaloniki. Emissions have been estimated for the following macro-pollutants; NOx, SO2, NMVOC, CO, CO2 and particulate matter (PM). In addition, the most important micro-pollutants studied in this work are As, Cd, Pb, Ni and Benzo(a)pyrene for which air quality limits have been set by the EU. Emissions have been estimated for three operation modes; cruising, maneuvering and hotelling. For the calculation of the present time maritime emissions, the activity data used were provided by the Thessaloniki Port Authority S.A. Moreover, future pollutant emissions are estimated using the future activity data provided by the Port Authority and the IMO legislation for shipping in the future. In addition, two mitigation emission scenarios are examined; the use of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) as a fuel used by ships and the implementation of cold ironing which is the electrification of ships during hotelling mode leading to the elimination of the corresponding emissions. The impact of the present and future passenger ship emissions on the air quality of Thessaloniki is examined with the use of the model CALPUFF applied over the 100m spatial resolution grid using the meteorology of WRF. Simulations of the modeling system are performed for four different emission

  8. Land-use impacts on water resources and protected areas: applications of state-and-transition simulation modeling of future scenarios

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wilson, Tamara; Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Sherba, Jason T; Dick Cameron,

    2015-01-01

    Human land use will increasingly contribute to habitat loss and water shortages in California, given future population projections and associated land-use demand. Understanding how land-use change may impact future water use and where existing protected areas may be threatened by land-use conversion will be important if effective, sustainable management approaches are to be implemented. We used a state-and-transition simulation modeling (STSM) framework to simulate spatially-explicit (1 km2) historical (1992-2010) and future (2011-2060) land-use change for 52 California counties within Mediterranean California ecoregions. Historical land use and land cover (LULC) change estimates were derived from the Farmland Mapping and Monitoring Program dataset and attributed with county-level agricultural water-use data from the California Department of Water Resources. Five future alternative land-use scenarios were developed and modeled using the historical land-use change estimates and land-use projections based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Special Report on Emission Scenarios A2 and B1 scenarios. Spatial land-use transition outputs across scenarios were combined to reveal scenario agreement and a land conversion threat index was developed to evaluate vulnerability of existing protected areas to proximal land conversion. By 2060, highest LULC conversion threats were projected to impact nearly 10,500 km2 of land area within 10 km of a protected area boundary and over 18,000 km2 of land area within essential habitat connectivity areas. Agricultural water use declined across all scenarios perpetuating historical drought-related land use from 2008-2010 and trends of annual cropland conversion into perennial woody crops. STSM is useful in analyzing land-use related impacts on water resource use as well as potential threats to existing protected land. Exploring a range of alternative, yet plausible, LULC change impacts will help to better inform resource

  9. Distributional potential of the Triatoma brasiliensis species complex at present and under scenarios of future climate conditions

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background The Triatoma brasiliensis complex is a monophyletic group, comprising three species, one of which includes two subspecific taxa, distributed across 12 Brazilian states, in the caatinga and cerrado biomes. Members of the complex are diverse in terms of epidemiological importance, morphology, biology, ecology, and genetics. Triatoma b. brasiliensis is the most disease-relevant member of the complex in terms of epidemiology, extensive distribution, broad feeding preferences, broad ecological distribution, and high rates of infection with Trypanosoma cruzi; consequently, it is considered the principal vector of Chagas disease in northeastern Brazil. Methods We used ecological niche models to estimate potential distributions of all members of the complex, and evaluated the potential for suitable adjacent areas to be colonized; we also present first evaluations of potential for climate change-mediated distributional shifts. Models were developed using the GARP and Maxent algorithms. Results Models for three members of the complex (T. b. brasiliensis, N = 332; T. b. macromelasoma, N = 35; and T. juazeirensis, N = 78) had significant distributional predictivity; however, models for T. sherlocki and T. melanica, both with very small sample sizes (N = 7), did not yield predictions that performed better than random. Model projections onto future-climate scenarios indicated little broad-scale potential for change in the potential distribution of the complex through 2050. Conclusions This study suggests that T. b. brasiliensis is the member of the complex with the greatest distributional potential to colonize new areas: overall; however, the distribution of the complex appears relatively stable. These analyses offer key information to guide proactive monitoring and remediation activities to reduce risk of Chagas disease transmission. PMID:24886587

  10. Soil erosion and associated organic carbon transfer along the southern Amazon land use frontier - status quo and future scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schindewolf, Marcus; Herrmann, Anne-Kathrin; Herrmann, Marie-Kristin; Amorim, Ricardo S. S.; Schmidt, Jürgen

    2016-04-01

    The Southern Amazon deforestation arc is one of the world's most dynamically changing landscapes mainly caused by global demands on animal products. Already more than 50 % of the savanna vegetation in Mato Grosso is converted to agricultural land. Following the BR-163 highway to the north deforestation is continuing, where former tropical rainforest is converted to pastures. Consequences are expected to be negative and highly relevant concerning soil functions. Soil losses and related carbon transfer by water erosion are likely to occur on a larger scale. Within the Carbiocial project, the impact of land use changes on soil loss was measured by applying artificial rainfall simulations. Experimental results were used to parameterize the physical based EROSION 3D simulation model in two meso-scale watersheds. The impact of future land use and climate scenarios on soil erosion and particle bound organic carbon transfer were simulated in addition to present day effects. Our results allow different predictions: Land use changes from natural vegetation to pasture lead to increased surface runoffs and soil losses. Due to the predominant no-tillage management, croplands do not reveal a similar behaviour; runoff and sediment yields are close to the initial level. Particle bound organic carbon losses are negligible compared to the removal of biomass during deforestation. Compared to the land use change effect more significant differences appear concerning the predominant soil types of the study region. Deterioration of soil functions are less pronounced for Ferralsols with a stable microstructure than for Acrisols. Additionally, our data suggest, that the main soil losses are related to the narrow time windows of land use conversion. Consequently, intensifying production on existing agricultural land rather than creating new production area (deforestation) might be the most practical way of preserving soils of the Southern Amazon.

  11. Plant distributions in the southwestern United States; a scenario assessment of the modern-day and future distribution ranges of 166 Species

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Thomas, Kathryn A.; Guertin, Patricia P.; Gass, Leila

    2012-01-01

    The authors developed spatial models of the predicted modern-day suitable habitat (SH) of 166 dominant and indicator plant species of the southwestern United States (herein referred to as the Southwest) and then conducted a coarse assessment of potential future changes in the distribution of their suitable habitat under three climate-change scenarios for two time periods. We used Maxent-based spatial modeling to predict the modern-day and future scenarios of SH for each species in an over 342-million-acre area encompassing all or parts of six states in the Southwest--Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah. Modern-day SH models were predicted by our using 26 annual and monthly average temperature and precipitation variables, averaged for the years 1971-2000. Future SH models were predicted for each species by our using six climate models based on application of the average of 16 General Circulation Models to Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emission scenarios B1, A1B, and A2 for two time periods, 2040 to 2069 and 2070 and 2100, referred to respectively as the 2050 and 2100 time periods. The assessment examined each species' vulnerability to loss of modern-day SH under future climate scenarios, potential to gain SH under future climate scenarios, and each species' estimated risk as a function of both vulnerability and potential gains. All 166 species were predicted to lose modern-day SH in the future climate change scenarios. In the 2050 time period, nearly 30 percent of the species lost 75 percent or more of their modern-day suitable habitat, 21 species gained more new SH than their modern-day SH, and 30 species gained less new SH than 25 percent of their modern-day SH. In the 2100 time period, nearly half of the species lost 75 percent or more of their modern-day SH, 28 species gained more new SH than their modern-day SH, and 34 gained less new SH than 25 percent of their modern-day SH. Using nine risk categories we found only two

  12. Impacts of climate change on streamflows under RCP scenarios: A case study in Xin River Basin, China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Yuqing; You, Qinglong; Chen, Changchun; Ge, Jing

    2016-09-01

    Researchers often examine hydro-climatological processes via Global Circulation Model (GCM) and hydrological model, which have been shown to benefit water resources management and prediction, especially at the basin scale. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and Statistical Downscaling Method (SDSM) were integrated and applied to estimate streamflows in the Xin River Basin, China, based on climate change scenarios downscaled from different GCMs (BCC-CSM1.1, CanESM2, and NorESM1-M) under three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Results confirmed that the calibrated SWAT model accurately depicts hydrological processes features at daily, monthly, and yearly scales. Three GCMs based on the calibrated SDSM showed that temperature is continually increasing in the region, however, future precipitation is highly complex and uncertain; there were significant differences among various GCM RCP scenarios. The average of the precipitation in three models showed slight and steady increase trends under RCP2.6 and RCP4.5, but a significant increase under the RCP8.5 scenario. The ensemble average of streamflow in GCMs demonstrated that many RCPs significantly decrease from May to June but increase from August to September relative to the baseline period. The ensemble mean of the multi-GCM indicated that future streamflows under RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios will be closer to the current streamflow volume. Many RCPs also revealed a significant increase in monthly streamflow dispersion coefficient in October, reflecting a tendency for drought and flood events in that month. The BCC-CSM1.1 and NorESM1-M models showed that streamflows are higher than the baseline with median probability in the future. The low monthly streamflow (10th percentile) processes for each GCM were altogether similar to the baseline, whereas the high monthly streamflows (90th percentile) showed various levels of disparity compared to the baseline.

  13. Projecting the environmental profile of Singapore's landfill activities: Comparisons of present and future scenarios based on LCA.

    PubMed

    Khoo, Hsien H; Tan, Lester L Z; Tan, Reginald B H

    2012-05-01

    This article aims to generate the environmental profile of Singapore's Semakau landfill by comparing three different operational options associated with the life cycle stages of landfilling activities, against a 'business as usual' scenario. Before life cycle assessment or LCA is used to quantify the potential impacts from landfilling activities, an attempt to incorporate localized and empirical information into the amounts of ash and MSW sent to the landfill was made. A linear regression representation of the relationship between the mass of waste disposed and the mass of incineration ash generated was modeled from waste statistics between years 2004 and 2009. Next, the mass of individual MSW components was projected from 2010 to 2030. The LCA results highlighted that in a 'business as usual' scenario the normalized total impacts of global warming, acidification and human toxicity increased by about 2% annually from 2011 to 2030. By replacing the 8000-tonne barge with a 10000-tonne coastal bulk carrier or freighter (in scenario 2) a grand total reduction of 48% of both global warming potential and acidification can be realized by year 2030. Scenario 3 explored the importance of having a Waste Water Treatment Plant in place to reduce human toxicity levels - however, the overall long-term benefits were not as significant as scenario 2. It is shown in scenario 4 that the option of increased recycling championed over all other three scenarios in the long run, resulting in a total 58% reduction in year 2030 for the total normalized results. A separate comparison of scenarios 1-4 is also carried out for energy utilization and land use in terms of volume of waste occupied. Along with the predicted reductions in environmental burdens, an additional bonus is found in the expanded lifespan of Semakau landfill from year 2032 (base case) to year 2039. Model limitations and suggestions for improvements were also discussed.

  14. Projecting the environmental profile of Singapore's landfill activities: Comparisons of present and future scenarios based on LCA.

    PubMed

    Khoo, Hsien H; Tan, Lester L Z; Tan, Reginald B H

    2012-05-01

    This article aims to generate the environmental profile of Singapore's Semakau landfill by comparing three different operational options associated with the life cycle stages of landfilling activities, against a 'business as usual' scenario. Before life cycle assessment or LCA is used to quantify the potential impacts from landfilling activities, an attempt to incorporate localized and empirical information into the amounts of ash and MSW sent to the landfill was made. A linear regression representation of the relationship between the mass of waste disposed and the mass of incineration ash generated was modeled from waste statistics between years 2004 and 2009. Next, the mass of individual MSW components was projected from 2010 to 2030. The LCA results highlighted that in a 'business as usual' scenario the normalized total impacts of global warming, acidification and human toxicity increased by about 2% annually from 2011 to 2030. By replacing the 8000-tonne barge with a 10000-tonne coastal bulk carrier or freighter (in scenario 2) a grand total reduction of 48% of both global warming potential and acidification can be realized by year 2030. Scenario 3 explored the importance of having a Waste Water Treatment Plant in place to reduce human toxicity levels - however, the overall long-term benefits were not as significant as scenario 2. It is shown in scenario 4 that the option of increased recycling championed over all other three scenarios in the long run, resulting in a total 58% reduction in year 2030 for the total normalized results. A separate comparison of scenarios 1-4 is also carried out for energy utilization and land use in terms of volume of waste occupied. Along with the predicted reductions in environmental burdens, an additional bonus is found in the expanded lifespan of Semakau landfill from year 2032 (base case) to year 2039. Model limitations and suggestions for improvements were also discussed. PMID:22257698

  15. Projections of the Ganges-Brahmaputra precipitation: downscaled from GCM predictors

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Pervez, Md Shahriar; Henebry, Geoffrey M.

    2014-01-01

    Downscaling Global Climate Model (GCM) projections of future climate is critical for impact studies. Downscaling enables use of GCM experiments for regional scale impact studies by generating regionally specific forecasts connecting global scale predictions and regional scale dynamics. We employed the Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) to downscale 21st century precipitation for two data-sparse hydrologically challenging river basins in South Asia—the Ganges and the Brahmaputra. We used CGCM3.1 by Canadian Center for Climate Modeling and Analysis version 3.1 predictors in downscaling the precipitation. Downscaling was performed on the basis of established relationships between historical Global Summary of Day observed precipitation records from 43 stations and National Center for Environmental Prediction re-analysis large scale atmospheric predictors. Although the selection of predictors was challenging during the set-up of SDSM, they were found to be indicative of important physical forcings in the basins. The precipitation of both basins was largely influenced by geopotential height: the Ganges precipitation was modulated by the U component of the wind and specific humidity at 500 and 1000 h Pa pressure levels; whereas, the Brahmaputra precipitation was modulated by the V component of the wind at 850 and 1000 h Pa pressure levels. The evaluation of the SDSM performance indicated that model accuracy for reproducing precipitation at the monthly scale was acceptable, but at the daily scale the model inadequately simulated some daily extreme precipitation events. Therefore, while the downscaled precipitation may not be the suitable input to analyze future extreme flooding or drought events, it could be adequate for analysis of future freshwater availability. Analysis of the CGCM3.1 downscaled precipitation projection with respect to observed precipitation reveals that the precipitation regime in each basin may be significantly impacted by climate change

  16. Assessment of vulnerability to future marine processes of urbanized coastal environments by a GIS-based approach: expected scenario in the metropolitan area of Bari (Italy)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mancini, F.; Ceppi, C.; Christopulos, V.

    2013-12-01

    Literature concerning the risk assessment procedures after extreme meteorological events is generally focused on the establishing of relationship between actual severe weather conditions and impact detected over the involved zones. Such an events are classified on the basis of measurements and observation able to assess the magnitude of phenomena or on the basis of related effects on the affected area, the latter being deeply connected with the overall physical vulnerability. However such assessment almost never do consider scenario about expected extreme event and possible pattern of urbanization at the time of impact and nor the spatial and temporal uncertainty of phenomena are taken into account. The drawn of future scenario about coastal vulnerability to marine processes is therefore difficult. This work focuses the study case of the Metropoli Terra di Bari (metropolitan area of Bari, Apulia, Italy) where a coastal vulnerability analysis due to climate changes expected on the basis of expert opinions coming from the scientific community was carried out. Several possible impacts on the coastal environments were considered, in particular sea level rise inundation, flooding due to storm surge and coastal erosion. For such a purpose the methodology base on SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenario) produced by the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) was adopted after a regionalization procedure as carried out by Verburgh and others (2006) at the European scale. The open source software SLEUTH, base on the cellular automate principle, was used and the reliability of obtained scenario verified through the Monte Carlo method. Once these scenario were produced, a GIS-based multicriteria methodology was implemented to evaluate the vulnerability of the urbanized coastal area of interest. Several vulnerability maps related are therefore available for different scenario able to consider the degree of hazards and potential development of the typology and extent

  17. The effects of future nationwide forest transition to discharge in the 21st century with regard to general circulation model climate change scenarios.

    PubMed

    Mouri, Goro; Nakano, Katsuhiro; Tsuyama, Ikutaro; Tanaka, Nobuyuki

    2016-08-01

    Forest disturbance (or land-cover change) and climatic variability are commonly recognised as two major drivers interactively influencing hydrology in forested watersheds. Future climate changes and corresponding changes in forest type and distribution are expected to generate changes in rainfall runoff that pose a threat to river catchments. It is therefore important to understand how future climate changes will effect average rainfall distribution and temperature and what effect this will have upon forest types across Japan. Recent deforestation of the present-day coniferous forest and expected increases in evergreen forest are shown to influence runoff processes and, therefore, to influence future runoff conditions. We strongly recommend that variations in forest type be considered in future plans to ameliorate projected climate changes. This will help to improve water retention and storage capacities, enhance the flood protection function of forests, and improve human health. We qualitatively assessed future changes in runoff including the effects of variation in forest type across Japan. Four general circulation models (GCMs) were selected from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble to provide the driving fields: the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC), the Meteorological Research Institute Atmospheric General Circulation Model (MRI-GCM), the Hadley Centre Global Environment Model (HadGEM), and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) climate model. The simulations consisted of an ensemble including multiple physics configurations and different reference concentration pathways (RCP2.6, 4.5, and 8.5), the results of which have produced monthly data sets for the whole of Japan. The impacts of future climate changes on forest type in Japan are based on the balance amongst changes in rainfall distribution, temperature and hydrological factors. Methods for assessing the impact of such changes include the

  18. The effects of future nationwide forest transition to discharge in the 21st century with regard to general circulation model climate change scenarios.

    PubMed

    Mouri, Goro; Nakano, Katsuhiro; Tsuyama, Ikutaro; Tanaka, Nobuyuki

    2016-08-01

    Forest disturbance (or land-cover change) and climatic variability are commonly recognised as two major drivers interactively influencing hydrology in forested watersheds. Future climate changes and corresponding changes in forest type and distribution are expected to generate changes in rainfall runoff that pose a threat to river catchments. It is therefore important to understand how future climate changes will effect average rainfall distribution and temperature and what effect this will have upon forest types across Japan. Recent deforestation of the present-day coniferous forest and expected increases in evergreen forest are shown to influence runoff processes and, therefore, to influence future runoff conditions. We strongly recommend that variations in forest type be considered in future plans to ameliorate projected climate changes. This will help to improve water retention and storage capacities, enhance the flood protection function of forests, and improve human health. We qualitatively assessed future changes in runoff including the effects of variation in forest type across Japan. Four general circulation models (GCMs) were selected from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble to provide the driving fields: the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC), the Meteorological Research Institute Atmospheric General Circulation Model (MRI-GCM), the Hadley Centre Global Environment Model (HadGEM), and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) climate model. The simulations consisted of an ensemble including multiple physics configurations and different reference concentration pathways (RCP2.6, 4.5, and 8.5), the results of which have produced monthly data sets for the whole of Japan. The impacts of future climate changes on forest type in Japan are based on the balance amongst changes in rainfall distribution, temperature and hydrological factors. Methods for assessing the impact of such changes include the

  19. Thermofluidodynamic modelling of the Adamello Glacier in a future climate scenario. Will the largest Italian glacier disappear by 2080?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ranzi, Roberto; Svanera, Eros; Baroni, Carlo; Barontini, Stefano; Caronna, Paolo; Grossi, Giovanna; Salvatore, Maria Cristina

    2016-04-01

    A thermofluidodynamic model was applied to the study case of the Adamello glacier (17,24 km2, after ASTER 2003 data), located in the Central Alps. The dynamic of the glacier was first simulated in the current climate conditions (1996-2007) and then using future climate projection resulting from the PCM A1b scenarios. Using the finite element code Elmer the dynamic equations were solved for the velocity field and the free surface elevation. The glacier was modelled with a 3D mesh composed by 28050 nodes and subdivided into 10 vertical layers. Elevation of the free surface and bedrock recorded in 1991 and in 1996 were used as boundary and initial conditions. For each simulated year a top surface temperature of -7.5 °C was considered for the winter semester in the ablation season the glacier's temperature was set to 0°C. During melting a fixed bottom velocity was applied to simulate the slip behaviour. As a Neumann boundary condition on the glacier's top surface the seasonal mass balance estimated from the energy-balance over the 1995-2009 period was assumed, with a mean value of -1.4 m/a. The reliability of the energy balance was verified with point measurement at ablation stakes over two ablation seasons, with runoff data and remote sensing. The maximum simulated surface velocities of the order of 100 m/a, a value consistent with observations of speed of some ablation stakes. In order to assess the validity of the results, the change in the thickness of the glacier observed between 1998 and 2007 (DEM difference) was compared to the simulated change in the free surface elevation. Another useful application of the modeling result is the identification of the ice divide of 5 glaciological units in the Sarca and Oglio subbasins, separated from a hydrological point of view, which is not a trivial task to be performed in the field. Another verification is done comparing the simulated glacier's extent in the year 2015 starting from 1996 initial conditions. The simulation

  20. Hazard Assessment for POPOCATÉPETL Volcano Using Hasset: a Probability Event Tree Tool to Evaluate Future Eruptive Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ferrés, D.; Reyes Pimentel, T. A.; Espinasa-Pereña, R.; Nieto, A.; Sobradelo, R.; Flores, X.; González Huesca, A. E.; Ramirez, A.

    2013-05-01

    -eruptive crisis of April-May 2012, in order to identify the most probable processes in which this unrest could have developed and to contribute to the diagnosis task. In this research, we propose a comparison between the processes identified in this preliminary volcanic event tree and another elaborated using a Hazard Assessment Event Tree probability tool (HASSET), built on a bayesian event tree structure, using mainly the information of the known eruptive history of Popocatépetl. The HASSET method is based on Bayesian Inference and is used to assess volcanic hazard of future eruptive scenarios, by evaluating the most relevant sources of uncertainty that play a role in estimating the future probability of occurrence of a specific volcanic event. The final goal is to find the most useful tools to make the diagnosis and prognosis of the Popocatépetl volcanic activity, integrating the known eruptive history of the volcano, the experience of the scientific committee and the information provided by the monitoring systems, in an interactive and user-friendly way.

  1. Linking GCM driven hydrology simulations to paleo-hydrology in mountain watersheds

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Byrne, J. M.; Kienzle, S. W.; Sauchyn, D. J.

    2009-04-01

    Ongoing hydrology and paleoclimate research programs are creating 600 year (1500 to 2100 A.D.) records of the hydroclimate for two important watersheds in western Canada. The generated databases will allow water managers and basin stakeholders to better prepare for the impacts of climate change on water supplies. The major risk for both watersheds in Canada's western interior is a change in the availability of water resources, including the timing of supplies and distribution among basins. The St. Mary watershed in Glacier National Park Montana provides water for a 200,000 ha irrigation development in southern Alberta, Canada. The North Saskatchewan Watershed headwaters lie in the Rocky Mountains of Alberta, and is the source of water for major urban centres with total populations approaching two million people. This project applies two hydrometeorological models simulating daily meteorology variables and associated hydrologic response at high spatial resolution over the watersheds. A range of GCM based future climate scenarios are evaluated with the hydrometeorological models to create a hydrology time series from 1960-2100. This output is linked to paleo-hydrology work using an extensive dendrochronology database that has defined seasonal hydrology for western Canadian regions for the last 500 years. We provide a 600 year hydrology time series that will allow partners and stakeholders a better understanding of forecast climate driven hydrological variability in context with an extensive historical hydrology database.

  2. Sea-level rise and impacts projections under a future scenario with large greenhouse gas emission reductions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pardaens, A. K.; Lowe, J. A.; Brown, S.; Nicholls, R. J.; de Gusmão, D.

    2011-06-01

    Using projections from two coupled climate models (HadCM3C and HadGEM2-AO), we consider the effect on 21st century sea-level rise (SLR) of mitigation policies relative to a scenario of business-as-usual (BAU). Around a third of the global-mean SLR over the century is avoided by a mitigation scenario under which global-mean near surface air temperature stabilises close to the Copenhagen Accord limit of a 2°C increase. Under BAU (a variant of the A1B scenario) the model-averaged projected SLR for 2090-2099 relative to 1980-1999 is 0.29 m-0.51 m (5%-95% uncertainties from treatment of land-based ice melt); under mitigation (E1 scenario) it is 0.17 m-0.34 m. This reduction is primarily from reduced thermal expansion. The spatial patterns of regional SLR are fairly dissimilar between the models, but are qualitatively similar across scenarios for a particular model. An impacts model suggests that by the end of the 21st century and without upgrade in defences around 55% of the 84 million additional people flooded per year globally under BAU (from SLR alone) could be avoided under such mitigation. The above projections of SLR follow the methodology of the IPCC Fourth Assessment. We have, however, also conducted a sensitivity study of SLR and its impacts where the possibility of accelerated ice sheet dynamics is accounted for.

  3. Assimilation of MGS Data Into a Coupled GCM-Mesoscale Model of the Martian Atmosphere

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rafkin, Scot C. R.; Haberle, Robert (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    The project sought to develop a coupled GCM-mesoscale model and to assimilate Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) data into the coupled model. To achieve the project goals, four specific research activities were proposed. These activities are reiterated for completeness and the progress in each of the activities is noted in future sections of this report.

  4. ESP v2.0: enhanced method for exploring emission impacts of future scenarios in the United States - addressing spatial allocation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ran, L.; Loughlin, D. H.; Yang, D.; Adelman, Z.; Baek, B. H.; Nolte, C. G.

    2015-01-01

    The Emission Scenario Projection (ESP) method produces future-year air pollutant emissions for mesoscale air quality modeling applications. We present ESP v2.0, which expands upon ESP v1.0 by spatially allocating future-year emissions to account for projected population and land use changes. In ESP v2.0, US Census Division-level emission growth factors are developed using an energy system model. Regional factors for population-related emissions are spatially disaggregated to the county level using population growth and migration projections. The county-level growth factors are then applied to grow a base-year emission inventory to the future. Spatial surrogates are updated to account for future population and land use changes, and these surrogates are used to map projected county-level emissions to a modeling grid for use within an air quality model. We evaluate ESP v2.0 by comparing US 12 km emissions for 2005 with projections for 2050. We also evaluate the individual and combined effects of county-level disaggregation and of updating spatial surrogates. Results suggest that the common practice of modeling future emissions without considering spatial redistribution over-predicts emissions in the urban core and under-predicts emissions in suburban and exurban areas. In addition to improving multi-decadal emission projections, a strength of ESP v2.0 is that it can be applied to assess the emissions and air quality implications of alternative energy, population and land use scenarios.

  5. Modeling vulnerability of groundwater to pollution under future scenarios of climate change and biofuels-related land use change: a case study in North Dakota, USA.

    PubMed

    Li, Ruopu; Merchant, James W

    2013-03-01

    Modeling groundwater vulnerability to pollution is critical for implementing programs to protect groundwater quality. Most groundwater vulnerability modeling has been based on current hydrogeology and land use conditions. However, groundwater vulnerability is strongly dependent on factors such as depth-to-water, recharge and land use conditions that may change in response to future changes in climate and/or socio-economic conditions. In this research, a modeling framework, which employs three sets of models linked within a geographic information system (GIS) environment, was used to evaluate groundwater pollution risks under future climate and land use changes in North Dakota. The results showed that areas with high vulnerability will expand northward and/or northwestward in Eastern North Dakota under different scenarios. GIS-based models that account for future changes in climate and land use can help decision-makers identify potential future threats to groundwater quality and take early steps to protect this critical resource.

  6. Design Support of an Above Cap-rock Early Detection Monitoring System using Simulated Leakage Scenarios at the FutureGen2.0 Site

    SciTech Connect

    Williams, Mark D.; USA, Richland Washington; Vermuel, Vince R.; USA, Richland Washington; Oostrom, Mart; USA, Richland Washington; Porse, Sean L.; USA, Richland Washington; Thorne, Paul D.; USA, Richland Washington; Szecsody, Jim E.; USA, Richland Washington; Horner, Jake A.; USA, Richland Washington; Gilmore, Tyler J.; USA, Richland Washington

    2014-12-31

    The FutureGen 2.0 Project will design and build a first-of-its-kind, near-zero emissions coal-fueled power plant with carbon capture and storage (CCS). To assess storage site performance and meet the regulatory requirements of the Class VI Underground Injection Control (UIC) Program for CO2 Geologic Sequestration, the FutureGen 2.0 project will implement a suite of monitoring technologies designed to evaluate CO2 mass balance and detect any unforeseen loss in CO2 containment. The monitoring program will include direct monitoring of the reservoir, and early-leak-detection monitoring directly above the primary confining zone. This preliminary modeling study described here focuses on hypothetical leakage scenarios into the first permeable unit above the primary confining zone (Ironton Sandstone) and is used to support assessment of early-leak detection capabilities. Future updates of the model will be used to assess potential impacts on the lowermost underground source of drinking water (Saint Peter Sandstone) for a range of theoretical leakage scenarios. This preliminary modeling evaluation considers both pressure response and geochemical signals in the overlying Ironton Sandstone. This model is independent of the FutureGen 2.0 reservoir model in that it does not simulate caprock discontinuities, faults, or failure scenarios. Instead this modeling effort is based on theoretical, volumetric-rate based leakage scenarios. The scenarios include leakage of 1% of the total injected CO2 mass, but spread out over different time periods (20, 100, and 500 years) with each case yielding a different mass flux (i.e., smaller mass fluxes for longer duration leakage cases]. A brine leakage scenario using a volumetric leakage similar to the 20 year 1% CO2 case was also considered. A framework for the comparison of the various cases was developed based on the exceedance of selected pressure and geochemical thresholds at different

  7. Design Support of an Above Cap-rock Early Detection Monitoring System using Simulated Leakage Scenarios at the FutureGen2.0 Site

    DOE PAGES

    Williams, Mark D.; USA, Richland Washington; Vermuel, Vince R.; USA, Richland Washington; Oostrom, Mart; USA, Richland Washington; Porse, Sean L.; USA, Richland Washington; Thorne, Paul D.; USA, Richland Washington; et al

    2014-12-31

    The FutureGen 2.0 Project will design and build a first-of-its-kind, near-zero emissions coal-fueled power plant with carbon capture and storage (CCS). To assess storage site performance and meet the regulatory requirements of the Class VI Underground Injection Control (UIC) Program for CO2 Geologic Sequestration, the FutureGen 2.0 project will implement a suite of monitoring technologies designed to evaluate CO2 mass balance and detect any unforeseen loss in CO2 containment. The monitoring program will include direct monitoring of the reservoir, and early-leak-detection monitoring directly above the primary confining zone. This preliminary modeling study described here focuses on hypothetical leakage scenarios intomore » the first permeable unit above the primary confining zone (Ironton Sandstone) and is used to support assessment of early-leak detection capabilities. Future updates of the model will be used to assess potential impacts on the lowermost underground source of drinking water (Saint Peter Sandstone) for a range of theoretical leakage scenarios. This preliminary modeling evaluation considers both pressure response and geochemical signals in the overlying Ironton Sandstone. This model is independent of the FutureGen 2.0 reservoir model in that it does not simulate caprock discontinuities, faults, or failure scenarios. Instead this modeling effort is based on theoretical, volumetric-rate based leakage scenarios. The scenarios include leakage of 1% of the total injected CO2 mass, but spread out over different time periods (20, 100, and 500 years) with each case yielding a different mass flux (i.e., smaller mass fluxes for longer duration leakage cases]. A brine leakage scenario using a volumetric leakage similar to the 20 year 1% CO2 case was also considered. A framework for the comparison of the various cases was developed based on the exceedance of selected pressure and geochemical thresholds at different distances from the point of leakage and at

  8. Simulating post-wildfire forest trajectories under alternative climate and management scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Azpeleta, Alicia; Fule, Peter; Shive, Kristen; Sieg, Carolyn; Sanchez-Meador, Andrew; Strom, Barbara

    2013-04-01

    To assess post-fire vegetation recovery under the influence of climate change, we applied the Climate-Forest Vegetation Simulator (Climate-FVS), a new version of a widely used forest management model, to compare alternative climate and management scenarios in a severely burned multi-species forest of Arizona, U.S.A. The incorporation of seven combinations of General Circulation Models (GCM) and emissions scenarios altered long-term (100 years) projections of future forest condition compared to a No Climate Change (NCC) scenario, which forecast a gradual increase to high levels of forest density and carbon storage. In contrast, emissions scenarios that included continued high greenhouse gas releases led to near-complete deforestation by 2111. GCM-emissions scenario combinations that were less severe reduced forest structure and carbon storage relative to NCC. Fuel reduction treatments that had been applied prior to the severe wildfire did have persistent effects, especially under NCC, but were overwhelmed by increasingly severe climate change. We tested six management strategies aimed at sustaining future forests: prescribed burning at 5, 10, or 20-year intervals, thinning 40% or 60% of stand basal area, and no-treatment. Severe climate change led to deforestation under all management regimes, but important differences emerged under the moderate scenarios: treatments that included regular prescribed burning fostered low density, wildfire-resistant forests composed of the naturally dominant species, ponderosa pine. Non-fire treatments under moderate climate change were forecast to become dense and susceptible to severe wildfire, with a shift to dominance by sprouting species. Current U.S.A. management requires modeling of future scenarios but does not mandate consideration of climate change effects. However, this study showed substantial differences in model outputs depending on climate and management actions. Managers should incorporate climate change into the

  9. Hydropower and water supply: competing water uses under a future drier climate modeling scenarios for the Tagus River basin, Portugal

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alexandre Diogo, Paulo; Nunes, João Pedro; Carmona Rodrigues, António; João Cruz, Maria; Grosso, Nuno

    2014-05-01

    Climate change in the Mediterranean region is expected to affect existing water resources, both in quantity and quality, as decreased mean annual precipitation and more frequent extreme precipitation events are likely to occur. Also, energy needs tend to increase, together with growing awareness that fossil fuels emissions are determinately responsible for global temperature rise, enhancing renewable energy use and reinforcing the importance of hydropower. When considered together, these facts represent a relevant threat to multipurpose reservoir operations. Great Lisbon main water supply (for c.a. 3 million people), managed by EPAL, is located in Castelo de Bode Reservoir, in the Tagus River affluent designated as Zêzere River. Castelo de Bode is a multipurpose infrastructure as it is also part of the hydropower network system of EDP, the main power company in Portugal. Facing the risk of potential climate change impacts on water resources availability, and as part of a wider project promoted by EPAL (designated as ADAPTACLIMA), climate change impacts on the Zêzere watershed where evaluated based on climate change scenarios for the XXI century. A sequential modeling approach was used and included downscaling climate data methodologies, hydrological modeling, volume reservoir simulations and water quality modeling. The hydrological model SWAT was used to predict the impacts of the A2 and B2 scenarios in 2010-2100, combined with changes in socio-economic drivers such as land use and water demands. Reservoir storage simulations where performed according to hydrological modeling results, water supply needs and dam operational requirements, such as minimum and maximum operational pool levels and turbine capacity. The Ce-Qual-W2 water quality model was used to assess water quality impacts. According to climate scenarios A2 and B2, rainfall decreases between 10 and 18% are expected by 2100, leading to drier climatic conditions and increased frequency and magnitude of

  10. GATA3 inhibits GCM1 activity and trophoblast cell invasion

    PubMed Central

    Chiu, Yueh Ho; Chen, Hungwen

    2016-01-01

    Development of human placenta involves the invasion of trophoblast cells from anchoring villi into the maternal decidua. Placental transcription factor GCM1 regulates trophoblast cell invasion via transcriptional activation of HtrA4 gene, which encodes a serine protease enzyme. The GATA3 transcription factor regulates trophoblast cell differentiation and is highly expressed in invasive murine trophoblast giant cells. The regulation of trophoblastic invasion by GCM1 may involve novel cellular factors. Here we show that GATA3 interacts with GCM1 and inhibits its activity to suppress trophoblastic invasion. Immunohistochemistry demonstrates that GATA3 and GCM1 are coexpressed in villous cytotrophoblast cells, syncytiotrophoblast layer, and extravillous trophoblast cells of human placenta. Interestingly, GATA3 interacts with GCM1, but not the GCM2 homologue, through the DNA-binding domain and first transcriptional activation domain in GCM1 and the transcriptional activation domains and zinc finger 1 domain in GATA3. While GATA3 did not affect DNA-binding activity of GCM1, it suppressed transcriptional activity of GCM1 and therefore HtrA4 promoter activity. Correspondingly, GATA3 knockdown elevated HtrA4 expression in BeWo and JEG-3 trophoblast cell lines and enhanced the invasion activities of both lines. This study uncovered a new GATA3 function in placenta as a negative regulator of GCM1 activity and trophoblastic invasion. PMID:26899996

  11. Assessing Hydrologic Impacts of Future Land Cover Change Scenarios in the South Platte River Basin (CO, WY, & NE)

    EPA Science Inventory

    Long-term land-use and land cover change and their associated impacts pose critical challenges to sustaining vital hydrological ecosystem services for future generations. In this study, a methodology was developed to characterize hydrologic impacts from future urban growth throug...

  12. Innovation in Technology-Enhanced Assessment in the UK and the USA: Future Scenarios and Critical Considerations

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Perrotta, Carlo

    2014-01-01

    This paper uses methods derived from the field of futures studies to explore the future of technology-enhanced assessment. Drawing on interviews and consultation activities with experts, the paper aims to discuss the conditions that can impede or foster "innovation" in assessment and education more broadly. Through a review of relevant…

  13. Assessing Hydrologic Impacts of Future Land Cover Change Scenarios in the San Pedro River (U.S./Mexico)

    EPA Science Inventory

    Long-term land-use and land cover change and their associated impacts pose critical challenges to sustaining vital hydrological ecosystem services for future generations. In this study, a methodology was developed to characterize hydrologic impacts from future urban growth throug...

  14. The Bisa GEM-Mars GCM

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Neary, Lori; Daerden, Frank

    2013-04-01

    GEM-Mars is a three-dimensional general circulation model of the Mars atmosphere extending from the surface to approximately 170 km based on the latest version of the GEM (Global Environmental Mesoscale) model, the operational data assimilation and weather forecasting system for Canada [Côté et al., 1998]. The dynamical core is an implicit two-time-level semi-Lagrangian scheme on an Arakawa C-grid with a terrain-following, log-hydrostatic-pressure vertical coordinate discretized on a Charney-Phillips grid. The model has both a hydrostatic and non-hydrostatic formulation, providing a single platform for simulations on a variety of horizontal scales. The model code is fully parallelized using OMP and MPI. The GCM includes the relevant physical processes such as CO2 condensation, planetary boundary layer mixing, gravity wave drag and surface parameterizations. A simple water cycle, basic gas-phase chemistry and passive tracers are also included in the model. Because of the vertical extent of the model, UV heating, non-LTE effects and molecular diffusion are also included. Dust is prescribed using the MGS scenario for total opacities and a Conrath profile shape. In the dust radiative transfer code, dust optical properties are based on the Wolff et al [2006, 2009] data. Temperatures in the lower and middle atmosphere have been evaluated using TES [Smith, 2004] and MCS [Kleinbohl et al. 2009] data. Winds and atmospheric circulation (mass stream functions) have been compared with the literature and show a good correspondence to other Mars GCMs. In parallel, active lifting and settling of size-distributed dust has also been implemented. The soil model has been improved to better match surface and near-surface temperatures from the Viking Landers, Phoenix [Davy et al. 2010], and TES. Near-surface winds and friction velocities have been compared with the literature and show reasonable performance. Condensation of CO2 in surface ice has been validated using CO2 ice mass

  15. Environmental implications of United States coal exports: a comparative life cycle assessment of future power system scenarios.

    PubMed

    Bohnengel, Barrett; Patiño-Echeverri, Dalia; Bergerson, Joule

    2014-08-19

    Stricter emissions requirements on coal-fired power plants together with low natural gas prices have contributed to a recent decline in the use of coal for electricity generation in the United States. Faced with a shrinking domestic market, many coal companies are taking advantage of a growing coal export market. As a result, U.S. coal exports hit an all-time high in 2012, fueled largely by demand in Asia. This paper presents a comparative life cycle assessment of two scenarios: a baseline scenario in which coal continues to be burned domestically for power generation, and an export scenario in which coal is exported to Asia. For the coal export scenario we focus on the Morrow Pacific export project being planned in Oregon by Ambre Energy that would ship 8.8 million tons of Powder River Basin (PRB) coal annually to Asian markets via rail, river barge, and ocean vessel. Air emissions (SOx, NOx, PM10 and CO2e) results assuming that the exported coal is burned for electricity generation in South Korea are compared to those of a business as usual case in which Oregon and Washington's coal plants, Boardman and Centralia, are retrofitted to comply with EPA emissions standards and continue their coal consumption. Findings show that although the environmental impacts of shipping PRB coal to Asia are significant, the combination of superior energy efficiency among newer South Korean coal-fired power plants and lower emissions from U.S. replacement of coal with natural gas could lead to a greenhouse gas reduction of 21% in the case that imported PRB coal replaces other coal sources in this Asian country. If instead PRB coal were to replace natural gas or nuclear generation in South Korea, greenhouse gas emissions per unit of electricity generated would increase. Results are similar for other air emissions such as SOx, NOx and PM. This study provides a framework for comparing energy export scenarios and highlights the importance of complete life cycle assessment in

  16. Environmental implications of United States coal exports: a comparative life cycle assessment of future power system scenarios.

    PubMed

    Bohnengel, Barrett; Patiño-Echeverri, Dalia; Bergerson, Joule

    2014-08-19

    Stricter emissions requirements on coal-fired power plants together with low natural gas prices have contributed to a recent decline in the use of coal for electricity generation in the United States. Faced with a shrinking domestic market, many coal companies are taking advantage of a growing coal export market. As a result, U.S. coal exports hit an all-time high in 2012, fueled largely by demand in Asia. This paper presents a comparative life cycle assessment of two scenarios: a baseline scenario in which coal continues to be burned domestically for power generation, and an export scenario in which coal is exported to Asia. For the coal export scenario we focus on the Morrow Pacific export project being planned in Oregon by Ambre Energy that would ship 8.8 million tons of Powder River Basin (PRB) coal annually to Asian markets via rail, river barge, and ocean vessel. Air emissions (SOx, NOx, PM10 and CO2e) results assuming that the exported coal is burned for electricity generation in South Korea are compared to those of a business as usual case in which Oregon and Washington's coal plants, Boardman and Centralia, are retrofitted to comply with EPA emissions standards and continue their coal consumption. Findings show that although the environmental impacts of shipping PRB coal to Asia are significant, the combination of superior energy efficiency among newer South Korean coal-fired power plants and lower emissions from U.S. replacement of coal with natural gas could lead to a greenhouse gas reduction of 21% in the case that imported PRB coal replaces other coal sources in this Asian country. If instead PRB coal were to replace natural gas or nuclear generation in South Korea, greenhouse gas emissions per unit of electricity generated would increase. Results are similar for other air emissions such as SOx, NOx and PM. This study provides a framework for comparing energy export scenarios and highlights the importance of complete life cycle assessment in

  17. Public Review Draft: A Method for Assessing Carbon Stocks, Carbon Sequestration, and Greenhouse-Gas Fluxes in Ecosystems of the United States Under Present Conditions and Future Scenarios

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bergamaschi, Brian A.; Bernknopf, Richard; Clow, David; Dye, Dennis; Faulkner, Stephen; Forney, William; Gleason, Robert; Hawbaker, Todd; Liu, Jinxun; Liu, Shu-Guang; Prisley, Stephen; Reed, Bradley; Reeves, Matthew; Rollins, Matthew; Sleeter, Benjamin; Sohl, Terry; Stackpoole, Sarah; Stehman, Stephen; Striegl, Rob; Wein, Anne; Zhu, Zhi-Liang; Zhu, Zhi-Liang

    2010-01-01

    The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA), Section 712, authorizes the U.S. Department of the Interior to develop a methodology and conduct an assessment of the Nation's ecosystems focusing on carbon stocks, carbon sequestration, and emissions of three greenhouse gases (GHGs): carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide. The major requirements include (1) an assessment of all ecosystems (terrestrial systems, such as forests, croplands, wetlands, shrub and grasslands; and aquatic ecosystems, such as rivers, lakes, and estuaries), (2) an estimation of annual potential capacities of ecosystems to increase carbon sequestration and reduce net GHG emissions in the context of mitigation strategies (including management and restoration activities), and (3) an evaluation of the effects of controlling processes, such as climate change, land use and land cover, and wildlfires. The purpose of this draft methodology for public review is to propose a technical plan to conduct the assessment. Within the methodology, the concepts of ecosystems, carbon pools, and GHG fluxes used for the assessment follow conventional definitions in use by major national and international assessment or inventory efforts. In order to estimate current ecosystem carbon stocks and GHG fluxes and to understand the potential capacity and effects of mitigation strategies, the method will use two time periods for the assessment: 2001 through 2010, which establishes a current ecosystem GHG baseline and will be used to validate the models; and 2011 through 2050, which will be used to assess future potential conditions based on a set of projected scenarios. The scenario framework is constructed using storylines of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report Emission Scenarios (SRES), along with initial reference land-use and land-cover (LULC) and land-management scenarios. An additional three LULC and land-management mitigation scenarios will be constructed for each

  18. Environmental Distributions of Benzo[a]pyrene in China: Current and Future Emission Reduction Scenarios Explored Using a Spatially Explicit Multimedia Fate Model.

    PubMed

    Zhu, Ying; Tao, Shu; Price, Oliver R; Shen, Huizhong; Jones, Kevin C; Sweetman, Andrew J

    2015-12-01

    SESAMe v3.0, a spatially explicit multimedia fate model with 50 × 50 km(2) resolution, has been developed for China to predict environmental concentrations of benzo[a]pyrene (BaP) using an atmospheric emission inventory for 2007. Model predictions are compared with environmental monitoring data obtained from an extensive review of the literature. The model performs well in predicting multimedia concentrations and distributions. Predicted concentrations are compared with guideline values; highest values with some exceedances occur mainly in the North China Plain, Mid Inner Mongolia, and parts of three northeast provinces, Xi'an, Shanghai, and south of Jiangsu province, East Sichuan Basin, middle of Guizhou and Guangzhou. Two potential future scenarios have been assessed using SESAMe v3.0 for 2030 as BaP emission is reduced by (1) technological improvement for coal consumption in energy production and industry sectors in Scenario 1 (Sc1) and (2) technological improvement and control of indoor biomass burning for cooking and indoor space heating and prohibition of open burning of biomass in 2030 in Scenario 2 (Sc2). Sc2 is more efficient in reducing the areas with exceedance of guideline values. Use of SESAMe v3.0 provides insights on future research needs and can inform decision making on options for source reduction. PMID:25942589

  19. Environmental Distributions of Benzo[a]pyrene in China: Current and Future Emission Reduction Scenarios Explored Using a Spatially Explicit Multimedia Fate Model.

    PubMed

    Zhu, Ying; Tao, Shu; Price, Oliver R; Shen, Huizhong; Jones, Kevin C; Sweetman, Andrew J

    2015-12-01

    SESAMe v3.0, a spatially explicit multimedia fate model with 50 × 50 km(2) resolution, has been developed for China to predict environmental concentrations of benzo[a]pyrene (BaP) using an atmospheric emission inventory for 2007. Model predictions are compared with environmental monitoring data obtained from an extensive review of the literature. The model performs well in predicting multimedia concentrations and distributions. Predicted concentrations are compared with guideline values; highest values with some exceedances occur mainly in the North China Plain, Mid Inner Mongolia, and parts of three northeast provinces, Xi'an, Shanghai, and south of Jiangsu province, East Sichuan Basin, middle of Guizhou and Guangzhou. Two potential future scenarios have been assessed using SESAMe v3.0 for 2030 as BaP emission is reduced by (1) technological improvement for coal consumption in energy production and industry sectors in Scenario 1 (Sc1) and (2) technological improvement and control of indoor biomass burning for cooking and indoor space heating and prohibition of open burning of biomass in 2030 in Scenario 2 (Sc2). Sc2 is more efficient in reducing the areas with exceedance of guideline values. Use of SESAMe v3.0 provides insights on future research needs and can inform decision making on options for source reduction.

  20. Future habitat loss and extinctions driven by land-use change in biodiversity hotspots under four scenarios of climate-change mitigation.

    PubMed

    Jantz, Samuel M; Barker, Brian; Brooks, Thomas M; Chini, Louise P; Huang, Qiongyu; Moore, Rachel M; Noel, Jacob; Hurtt, George C

    2015-08-01

    Numerous species have been pushed into extinction as an increasing portion of Earth's land surface has been appropriated for human enterprise. In the future, global biodiversity will be affected by both climate change and land-use change, the latter of which is currently the primary driver of species extinctions. How societies address climate change will critically affect biodiversity because climate-change mitigation policies will reduce direct climate-change impacts; however, these policies will influence land-use decisions, which could have negative impacts on habitat for a substantial number of species. We assessed the potential impact future climate policy could have on the loss of habitable area in biodiversity hotspots due to associated land-use changes. We estimated past extinctions from historical land-use changes (1500-2005) based on the global gridded land-use data used for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report and habitat extent and species data for each hotspot. We then estimated potential extinctions due to future land-use changes under alternative climate-change scenarios (2005-2100). Future land-use changes are projected to reduce natural vegetative cover by 26-58% in the hotspots. As a consequence, the number of additional species extinctions, relative to those already incurred between 1500 and 2005, due to land-use change by 2100 across all hotspots ranged from about 220 to 21000 (0.2% to 16%), depending on the climate-change mitigation scenario and biological factors such as the slope of the species-area relationship and the contribution of wood harvest to extinctions. These estimates of potential future extinctions were driven by land-use change only and likely would have been higher if the direct effects of climate change had been considered. Future extinctions could potentially be reduced by incorporating habitat preservation into scenario development to reduce projected future land-use changes in hotspots or by

  1. Future habitat loss and extinctions driven by land-use change in biodiversity hotspots under four scenarios of climate-change mitigation.

    PubMed

    Jantz, Samuel M; Barker, Brian; Brooks, Thomas M; Chini, Louise P; Huang, Qiongyu; Moore, Rachel M; Noel, Jacob; Hurtt, George C

    2015-08-01

    Numerous species have been pushed into extinction as an increasing portion of Earth's land surface has been appropriated for human enterprise. In the future, global biodiversity will be affected by both climate change and land-use change, the latter of which is currently the primary driver of species extinctions. How societies address climate change will critically affect biodiversity because climate-change mitigation policies will reduce direct climate-change impacts; however, these policies will influence land-use decisions, which could have negative impacts on habitat for a substantial number of species. We assessed the potential impact future climate policy could have on the loss of habitable area in biodiversity hotspots due to associated land-use changes. We estimated past extinctions from historical land-use changes (1500-2005) based on the global gridded land-use data used for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report and habitat extent and species data for each hotspot. We then estimated potential extinctions due to future land-use changes under alternative climate-change scenarios (2005-2100). Future land-use changes are projected to reduce natural vegetative cover by 26-58% in the hotspots. As a consequence, the number of additional species extinctions, relative to those already incurred between 1500 and 2005, due to land-use change by 2100 across all hotspots ranged from about 220 to 21000 (0.2% to 16%), depending on the climate-change mitigation scenario and biological factors such as the slope of the species-area relationship and the contribution of wood harvest to extinctions. These estimates of potential future extinctions were driven by land-use change only and likely would have been higher if the direct effects of climate change had been considered. Future extinctions could potentially be reduced by incorporating habitat preservation into scenario development to reduce projected future land-use changes in hotspots or by

  2. How will organic carbon stocks in mineral soils evolve under future climate? Global projections using RothC for a range of climate change scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gottschalk, P.; Smith, J. U.; Wattenbach, M.; Bellarby, J.; Stehfest, E.; Arnell, N.; Osborn, T. J.; Smith, P.

    2012-01-01

    We use a soil carbon (C) model (RothC), driven by a range of climate models for a range of climate scenarios to examine the impacts of future climate on global soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks. The results suggest an overall global increase in global SOC stocks by 2100 under all scenarios, but with a different extent of increase among the climate model and emissions scenarios. Projected land use changes are also simulated, but have relatively small impacts at the global scale. Whether soils gain or lose SOC depends upon the balance between C inputs and decomposition. Changes in net primary production (NPP) change C inputs to the soil, whilst decomposition usually increases under warmer temperatures, but can also be slowed by decreased soil moisture. Underlying the global trend of increasing SOC under future climate is a complex pattern of regional SOC change. SOC losses are projected to occur in northern latitudes where higher SOC decomposition rates due to higher temperatures are not balanced by increased NPP, whereas in tropical regions, NPP increases override losses due to higher SOC decomposition. The spatial heterogeneity in the response of SOC to changing climate shows how delicately balanced the competing gain and loss processes are, with subtle changes in temperature, moisture, soil type and land use, interacting to determine whether SOC increases or decreases in the future. Our results suggest that we should stop asking the general question of whether SOC stocks will increase or decrease under future climate since there is no single answer. Instead, we should focus on improving our prediction of the factors that determine the size and direction of change, and the land management practices that can be implemented to protect and enhance SOC stocks.

  3. How will organic carbon stocks in mineral soils evolve under future climate? Global projections using RothC for a range of climate change scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gottschalk, P.; Smith, J. U.; Wattenbach, M.; Bellarby, J.; Stehfest, E.; Arnell, N.; Osborn, T. J.; Jones, C.; Smith, P.

    2012-08-01

    We use a soil carbon (C) model (RothC), driven by a range of climate models for a range of climate scenarios to examine the impacts of future climate on global soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks. The results suggest an overall global increase in SOC stocks by 2100 under all scenarios, but with a different extent of increase among the climate model and emissions scenarios. The impacts of projected land use changes are also simulated, but have relatively minor impacts at the global scale. Whether soils gain or lose SOC depends upon the balance between C inputs and decomposition. Changes in net primary production (NPP) change C inputs to the soil, whilst decomposition usually increases under warmer temperatures, but can also be slowed by decreased soil moisture. Underlying the global trend of increasing SOC under future climate is a complex pattern of regional SOC change. SOC losses are projected to occur in northern latitudes where higher SOC decomposition rates due to higher temperatures are not balanced by increased NPP, whereas in tropical regions, NPP increases override losses due to higher SOC decomposition. The spatial heterogeneity in the response of SOC to changing climate shows how delicately balanced the competing gain and loss processes are, with subtle changes in temperature, moisture, soil type and land use, interacting to determine whether SOC increases or decreases in the future. Our results suggest that we should stop looking for a single answer regarding whether SOC stocks will increase or decrease under future climate, since there is no single answer. Instead, we should focus on improving our prediction of the factors that determine the size and direction of change, and the land management practices that can be implemented to protect and enhance SOC stocks.

  4. Evidence and future scenarios of a low-carbon energy transition in Central America: a case study in Nicaragua

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barido, Diego Ponce de Leon; Johnston, Josiah; Moncada, Maria V.; Callaway, Duncan; Kammen, Daniel M.

    2015-10-01

    The global carbon emissions budget over the next decades depends critically on the choices made by fast-growing emerging economies. Few studies exist, however, that develop country-specific energy system integration insights that can inform emerging economies in this decision-making process. High spatial- and temporal-resolution power system planning is central to evaluating decarbonization scenarios, but obtaining the required data and models can be cost prohibitive, especially for researchers in low, lower-middle income economies. Here, we use Nicaragua as a case study to highlight the importance of high-resolution open access data and modeling platforms to evaluate fuel-switching strategies and their resulting cost of power under realistic technology, policy, and cost scenarios (2014-2030). Our results suggest that Nicaragua could cost-effectively achieve a low-carbon grid (≥80%, based on non-large hydro renewable energy generation) by 2030 while also pursuing multiple development objectives. Regional cooperation (balancing) enables the highest wind and solar generation (18% and 3% by 2030, respectively), at the least cost (US127 MWh-1). Potentially risky resources (geothermal and hydropower) raise system costs but do not significantly hinder decarbonization. Oil price sensitivity scenarios suggest renewable energy to be a more cost-effective long-term investment than fuel oil, even under the assumption of prevailing cheap oil prices. Nicaragua’s options illustrate the opportunities and challenges of power system decarbonization for emerging economies, and the key role that open access data and modeling platforms can play in helping develop low-carbon transition pathways.

  5. Projected climate regime shift under future global warming from multi-model, multi-scenario CMIP5 simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Feng, Song; Hu, Qi; Huang, Wei; Ho, Chang-Hoi; Li, Ruopu; Tang, Zhenghong

    2014-01-01

    This study examined shifts in climate regimes over the global land area using the Köppen-Trewartha (K-T) climate classification by analyzing observations during 1900-2010, and simulations during 1900-2100 from twenty global climate models participating in Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5). Under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario, the models projected a 3°-10 °C warming in annual temperature over the global land area by the end of the twenty-first century, with strong (moderate) warming in the high (middle) latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere and weaker warming in the tropics and the Southern Hemisphere. The projected changes in precipitation vary considerably in space and present greater uncertainties among the models. Overall, the models are consistent in projecting increasing precipitation over the high-latitude of the Northern Hemisphere, and reduced precipitation in the Mediterranean, southwestern North America, northern and southern Africa and Australia. Based on the projected changes in temperature and precipitation, the K-T climate types would shift toward warmer and drier climate types from the current climate distribution. Regions of temperate, tropical and dry climate types are projected to expand, while regions of polar, sub-polar and subtropical climate types are projected to contract. The magnitudes of the projected changes are stronger in the RCP8.5 scenario than the low emission scenario RCP4.5. On average, the climate types in 31.4% and 46.3% of the global land area are projected to change by the end of the twenty-first century under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. Further analysis suggests that changes in precipitation played a slightly more important role in causing shifts of climate type during the twentieth century. However, the projected changes in temperature play an increasingly important role and dominate shifts in climate type

  6. Future projection of Indian summer monsoon variability under climate change scenario: An assessment from CMIP5 climate models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sharmila, S.; Joseph, S.; Sahai, A. K.; Abhilash, S.; Chattopadhyay, R.

    2015-01-01

    In this study, the impact of enhanced anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions on the possible future changes in different aspects of daily-to-interannual variability of Indian summer monsoon (ISM) is systematically assessed using 20 coupled models participated in the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5. The historical (1951-1999) and future (2051-2099) simulations under the strongest Representative Concentration Pathway have been analyzed for this purpose. A few reliable models are selected based on their competence in simulating the basic features of present-climate ISM variability. The robust and consistent projections across the selected models suggest substantial changes in the ISM variability by the end of 21st century indicating strong sensitivity of ISM to global warming. On the seasonal scale, the all-India summer monsoon mean rainfall is likely to increase moderately in future, primarily governed by enhanced thermodynamic conditions due to atmospheric warming, but slightly offset by weakened large scale monsoon circulation. It is projected that the rainfall magnitude will increase over core monsoon zone in future climate, along with lengthening of the season due to late withdrawal. On interannual timescales, it is speculated that severity and frequency of both strong monsoon (SM) and weak monsoon (WM) might increase noticeably in future climate. Substantial changes in the daily variability of ISM are also projected, which are largely associated with the increase in heavy rainfall events and decrease in both low rain-rate and number of wet days during future monsoon. On the subseasonal scale, the model projections depict considerable amplification of higher frequency (below 30 day mode) components; although the dominant northward propagating 30-70 day mode of monsoon intraseasonal oscillations may not change appreciably in a warmer climate. It is speculated that the enhanced high frequency mode of monsoon ISOs due to increased GHG induced warming

  7. Multi-Path Transportation Futures Study. Vehicle Characterization and Scenario Analyses: Main Text and Appendices A, B, C, D, and F

    SciTech Connect

    Plotkin, Steve; Singh, Margaret; Patterson, Phil; Ward, Jake; Wood, Frances; Kydes, Niko; Holte, John; Moore, Jim; Miller, Grant; Das, Sujit; Greene, David

    2009-07-22

    This report provides details for Phase 2 of the Multi-Path Transportation Futures Study, which compares alternative ways to make significant reductions in oil use and carbon emissions from U.S. light vehicles to 2050. Phase I, completed in 2009, examined the full range of pathways of interest to EERE, with multiple scenarios aimed at revealing the issues and impacts associated with a national effort to reduce U.S. dependence on oil use in transportation. Phase 2 expanded the scope of the analysis by examining the interactive effects of multiple pathways on each other and on oil and feedstock prices, focusing far more on costs; and substantially increasing the number of metrics used to compare pathways and scenarios.

  8. What strategy is needed for attaining the EU air quality regulations under future climate change scenarios? A sensitivity analysis over Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jiménez-Guerrero, P.; Baró, R.; Gómez-Navarro, J. J.; Lorente-Plazas, R.; García-Valero, J. A.; Hernández, Z.; Montávez, J. P.

    2012-04-01

    A wide number of studies show that several areas over Europe exceed some of the air quality thresholds established in the legislation. These exceedances will become more frequent under future climate change scenarios, since the policies aimed at improving air quality in the EU directives have not accounted for the variations in the climate. Climate change alone will influence the future concentrations of atmospheric pollutants through modifications of gas-phase chemistry, transport, removal, and natural emissions. In this sense, chemistry transport models (CTMs) play a key role in assessing and understanding the emissions abatement plans through the use of sensitivity analysis strategies. These sensitivity analyses characterize the change in model output due to variations in model input parameters. Since the management strategies of air pollutant emission is one of the predominant factors for controlling urban air quality, this work assesses the impact of various emission reduction scenarios in air pollution levels over Europe under two climate change scenarios. The methodology includes the use of a climate version of the meteorological model MM5 coupled with the CHIMERE chemistry transport model. Experiments span the periods 1971-2000, as a reference, and 2071-2100, as two future enhanced greenhouse gas and aerosol scenarios (SRES A2 and B2). The atmospheric simulations have an horizontal resolution of 25 km and 23 vertical layers up to 100 hPa, and are driven by the global climate model ECHO-G . In order to represent the sensitivity of the chemistry and transport of aerosols, tropospheric ozone and other photochemical species, several hypothetical scenarios of emission control have been implemented to quantify the influence of diverse emission sources in the area, such as on-road traffic, port and industrial emissions, among others. The modeling strategy lies on a sensitivity analysis to determine the emission reduction and strategy needed in the target area in

  9. Implications for future survival of delta smelt from four climate change scenarios for the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Brown, Larry R.; Bennett, William A.; Wagner, R. Wayne; Morgan-King, Tara; Knowles, Noah; Feyrer, Frederick; Schoellhamer, David H.; Stacey, Mark T.; Dettinger, Mike

    2013-01-01

    Changes in the position of the low salinity zone, a habitat suitability index, turbidity, and water temperature modeled from four 100-year scenarios of climate change were evaluated for possible effects on delta smelt Hypomesus transpacificus, which is endemic to the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta. The persistence of delta smelt in much of its current habitat into the next century appears uncertain. By mid-century, the position of the low salinity zone in the fall and the habitat suitability index converged on values only observed during the worst droughts of the baseline period (1969–2000). Projected higher water temperatures would render waters historically inhabited by delta smelt near the confluence of the Sacramento and San Joaquin rivers largely uninhabitable. However, the scenarios of climate change are based on assumptions that require caution in the interpretation of the results. Projections like these provide managers with a useful tool for anticipating long-term challenges to managing fish populations and possibly adapting water management to ameliorate those challenges.

  10. Assessing forest vulnerability and the potential distribution of pine beetles under current and future climate scenarios in the Interior West of the US

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Evangelista, P.H.; Kumar, S.; Stohlgren, T.J.; Young, N.E.

    2011-01-01

    The aim of our study was to estimate forest vulnerability and potential distribution of three bark beetles (Curculionidae: Scolytinae) under current and projected climate conditions for 2020 and 2050. Our study focused on the mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae), western pine beetle (Dendroctonus brevicomis), and pine engraver (Ips pini). This study was conducted across eight states in the Interior West of the US covering approximately 2.2millionkm2 and encompassing about 95% of the Rocky Mountains in the contiguous US. Our analyses relied on aerial surveys of bark beetle outbreaks that occurred between 1991 and 2008. Occurrence points for each species were generated within polygons created from the aerial surveys. Current and projected climate scenarios were acquired from the WorldClim database and represented by 19 bioclimatic variables. We used Maxent modeling technique fit with occurrence points and current climate data to model potential beetle distributions and forest vulnerability. Three available climate models, each having two emission scenarios, were modeled independently and results averaged to produce two predictions for 2020 and two predictions for 2050 for each analysis. Environmental parameters defined by current climate models were then used to predict conditions under future climate scenarios, and changes in different species' ranges were calculated. Our results suggested that the potential distribution for bark beetles under current climate conditions is extensive, which coincides with infestation trends observed in the last decade. Our results predicted that suitable habitats for the mountain pine beetle and pine engraver beetle will stabilize or decrease under future climate conditions, while habitat for the western pine beetle will continue to increase over time. The greatest increase in habitat area was for the western pine beetle, where one climate model predicted a 27% increase by 2050. In contrast, the predicted habitat of the

  11. Future PMP Estimation in Korea under AR5 RCP 8.5 climate change scenarios and its Changes Cause Analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, S.; Lee, J.; Okjeong, L.; Bogyeong, C.; Park, M. W.

    2015-12-01

    In this presentation, Korea's probable maximum precipitations (PMPs) which reflects all of the storm data until recently are calculated, and are compared to the existing PMPs which were calculated at 2000. In Korea, abnormal weather phenomena such as typhoon Rusa and Maemi, and the extreme rainfall event occurred on the east coast of the northern region, that can have a significant impact on the PMP estimation, have frequently happened since 2000. After selecting 240 major storm events from 1973 to 2012, new PMPs are proposed with respect to storm areas (25, 100, 225, 400, 900, 2025, 4900, 10000 and 19600 km2) and storm durations (1, 2, 4, 6, 8, 12, 18, 24, 48 and 72 hours) using the Korea hydro-meteorological method. After estimating future PMPs using future rainfall and dew point temperature information under the Korea Meteorological Administration AR5 RCP 8.5, changes in the PMPs under climate change will be investigated by comparison with present and future PMPs. By separating the changes in PMPs under climate change into the changes caused by rainfall and dew point temperature, the relative impact of future rainfall and dew point temperature information under climate change on future PMPs is quantified. This research was supported by a grant 'Development of the Evaluation Technology for Complex Causes of Inundation Vulnerability and the Response Plans in Coastal Urban Areas for Adaptation to Climate Change' [MPSS-NH-2015-77] from the Natural Hazard Mitigation Research Group, Ministry of Public Safety and Security of Korea.

  12. Surviving but not thriving: inconsistent responses of zooxanthellate jellyfish polyps to ocean warming and future UV-B scenarios.

    PubMed

    Klein, Shannon G; Pitt, Kylie A; Carroll, Anthony R

    2016-01-01

    Complex changes to UV radiation at the Earth's surface are occurring concurrently with ocean warming. Despite few empirical tests, jellyfish are hypothesised to be increasing in some parts of the world because they are robust to environmental stressors. Here we examine the effects of UV-B and ocean warming projections on zooxanthellate jellyfish polyps. We exposed Cassiopea sp. polyps to three levels of UV-B (future-low (1.43 Wm(2)), current (1.60 Wm(2)), future-high (1.77 Wm(2))) and two levels of temperature (current-day (25 °C) and future (28 °C)) over 6 weeks. The intensity of UV-B was varied throughout the day to mimic diel variation in UV-B irradiance. Polyp survival, asexual reproduction and YII were measured. In the current and future-high UV-B treatments, more polyps were produced in 25 °C than 28 °C. This pattern, however, was reversed under future-low UV-B conditions, where more polyps were produced at 28 °C. YII was highest under current summer conditions and future conditions of low UV-B and increased temperature. YII, however, was reduced under high UV-B conditions but was further reduced with warming. Our results suggest that although Cassiopea polyps may survive elevated UV-B and warming conditions, they are unlikely to thrive. If, however, UV-B radiation decreases then ocean warming may facilitate increases in Cassiopea populations. PMID:27374028

  13. Surviving but not thriving: inconsistent responses of zooxanthellate jellyfish polyps to ocean warming and future UV-B scenarios

    PubMed Central

    Klein, Shannon G.; Pitt, Kylie A.; Carroll, Anthony R.

    2016-01-01

    Complex changes to UV radiation at the Earth’s surface are occurring concurrently with ocean warming. Despite few empirical tests, jellyfish are hypothesised to be increasing in some parts of the world because they are robust to environmental stressors. Here we examine the effects of UV-B and ocean warming projections on zooxanthellate jellyfish polyps. We exposed Cassiopea sp. polyps to three levels of UV-B (future-low (1.43 Wm2), current (1.60 Wm2), future-high (1.77 Wm2)) and two levels of temperature (current-day (25 °C) and future (28 °C)) over 6 weeks. The intensity of UV-B was varied throughout the day to mimic diel variation in UV-B irradiance. Polyp survival, asexual reproduction and YII were measured. In the current and future-high UV-B treatments, more polyps were produced in 25 °C than 28 °C. This pattern, however, was reversed under future-low UV-B conditions, where more polyps were produced at 28 °C. YII was highest under current summer conditions and future conditions of low UV-B and increased temperature. YII, however, was reduced under high UV-B conditions but was further reduced with warming. Our results suggest that although Cassiopea polyps may survive elevated UV-B and warming conditions, they are unlikely to thrive. If, however, UV-B radiation decreases then ocean warming may facilitate increases in Cassiopea populations. PMID:27374028

  14. Surviving but not thriving: inconsistent responses of zooxanthellate jellyfish polyps to ocean warming and future UV-B scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Klein, Shannon G.; Pitt, Kylie A.; Carroll, Anthony R.

    2016-07-01

    Complex changes to UV radiation at the Earth’s surface are occurring concurrently with ocean warming. Despite few empirical tests, jellyfish are hypothesised to be increasing in some parts of the world because they are robust to environmental stressors. Here we examine the effects of UV-B and ocean warming projections on zooxanthellate jellyfish polyps. We exposed Cassiopea sp. polyps to three levels of UV-B (future-low (1.43 Wm2), current (1.60 Wm2), future-high (1.77 Wm2)) and two levels of temperature (current-day (25 °C) and future (28 °C)) over 6 weeks. The intensity of UV-B was varied throughout the day to mimic diel variation in UV-B irradiance. Polyp survival, asexual reproduction and YII were measured. In the current and future-high UV-B treatments, more polyps were produced in 25 °C than 28 °C. This pattern, however, was reversed under future-low UV-B conditions, where more polyps were produced at 28 °C. YII was highest under current summer conditions and future conditions of low UV-B and increased temperature. YII, however, was reduced under high UV-B conditions but was further reduced with warming. Our results suggest that although Cassiopea polyps may survive elevated UV-B and warming conditions, they are unlikely to thrive. If, however, UV-B radiation decreases then ocean warming may facilitate increases in Cassiopea populations.

  15. ESP v2.0: enhanced method for exploring emission impacts of future scenarios in the United States - addressing spatial allocation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ran, L.; Loughlin, D. H.; Yang, D.; Adelman, Z.; Baek, B. H.; Nolte, C. G.

    2015-06-01

    The Emission Scenario Projection (ESP) method produces future-year air pollutant emissions for mesoscale air quality modeling applications. We present ESP v2.0, which expands upon ESP v1.0 by spatially allocating future-year non-power sector emissions to account for projected population and land use changes. In ESP v2.0, US Census division-level emission growth factors are developed using an energy system model. Regional factors for population-related emissions are spatially disaggregated to the county level using population growth and migration projections. The county-level growth factors are then applied to grow a base-year emission inventory to the future. Spatial surrogates are updated to account for future population and land use changes, and these surrogates are used to map projected county-level emissions to a modeling grid for use within an air quality model. We evaluate ESP v2.0 by comparing US 12 km emissions for 2005 with projections for 2050. We also evaluate the individual and combined effects of county-level disaggregation and of updating spatial surrogates. Results suggest that the common practice of modeling future emissions without considering spatial redistribution over-predicts emissions in the urban core and under-predicts emissions in suburban and exurban areas. In addition to improving multi-decadal emission projections, a strength of ESP v2.0 is that it can be applied to assess the emissions and air quality implications of alternative energy, population and land use scenarios.

  16. Juvenile growth of the tropical sea urchin Lytechinus variegatus exposed to near-future ocean acidification scenarios

    PubMed Central

    Albright, Rebecca; Bland, Charnelle; Gillette, Phillip; Serafy, Joseph E.; Langdon, Chris; Capo, Thomas R.

    2012-01-01

    To evaluate the effect of elevated pCO2 exposure on the juvenile growth of the sea urchin Lytechinus variegatus, we reared individuals for three months in one of three target pCO2 levels: ambient seawater (380 µatm) and two scenarios that are projected to occur by the middle (560 µatm) and end (800 µatm) of this century. At the end of 89 days, urchins reared at ambient pCO2 weighed 12% more than those reared at 560 µatm and 28% more than those reared at 800 µatm. Skeletons were analyzed using scanning electron miscroscopy, revealing degradation of spines in urchins reared at elevated pCO2 (800 µatm). Our results indicate that elevated pCO2 levels projected to occur this century may adversely affect the development of juvenile sea urchins. Acidification-induced changes to juvenile urchin development would likely impair performance and functioning of juvenile stages with implications for adult populations. PMID:22833691

  17. Seasonal Prediction with the GEOS GCM

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Suarez, Max; Schubert, S.; Chang, Y.

    1999-01-01

    A number of ensembles of seasonal forecasts have recently been completed as part of NASA's Seasonal to Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP). The focus is on the extratropical response of the atmosphere to observed SST anomalies during boreal winter. Each prediction consists of nine forecasts starting from slightly different initial conditions. Forecasts are done for every winter from 1981 to 1995 using Version 2 of the GEOS GCM. Comparisons with six long-term integrations (1978-1995) using the same model are used to separate the contributions of initial and boundary conditions to forecast skill. The forecasts also allow us to isolate the SSt forced response (the signal) from the atmosphere's natural variability (the noise).

  18. Coupled Radiative-Dynamical GCM Simulations of Hot Jupiters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Showman, Adam P.; Fortney, J. J.; Lian, Y.; Marley, M. S.

    2007-10-01

    The stellar flux incident on hot Jupiters is expected to drive an atmospheric circulation that shapes the day-night temperature difference, infrared lightcurve, spectra, albedo, and atmospheric composition. Recent Spitzer lightcurve observations show that on some hot Jupiters, including HD189733b and HD209458b, the circulation efficiently homogenizes the temperature, whereas other planets such as Ups And b may exhibit large day-night temperature differences. Moreover, Spitzer infrared photometry and spectra constrain the vertical temperature structure in the atmosphere, which may deviate strongly from radiative equilibrium. Several groups have investigated the atmospheric circulation with a variety of 2D and 3D models (Showman and Guillot 2002; Cho et al. 2003, 2006; Langton and Laughlin 2007; Cooper and Showman 2005, 2006; Dobbs-Dixon and Lin 2007). However, all of these models drive the dynamics with simplified heating/cooling schemes that preclude robust predictions for the 3D temperature patterns, spectra, and lightcurves. Here, we present the first simulations of cloud-free hot Jupiters from a 3D general circulation model (GCM) that couples the atmospheric dynamics to a realistic representation of radiative transfer. For the dynamics, we adopt the MITgcm, which is a state-of-the-art circulation model that solves the 3D primitive equations of meteorology. Our radiation model is that of Marley and McKay (1999), which solves the two-stream radiative-transfer equations using the correlated-k method for the opacities; this radiative-transfer model has been extensively applied to brown dwarfs and extrasolar planets by Marley, Fortney, and collaborators. By coupling these components, the GCM provides a much more realistic representation of the radiative-dynamical interaction than possible with previous models. Here, we will present simulations of HD209458b and HD189733b, compare the predicted temperatures, spectra, and lightcurves with existing data, and make

  19. Regional Climate Simulation with a Variable Resolution Stretched Grid GCM: The Regional Down-Scaling Effects

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fox-Rabinovitz, Michael S.; Takacs, Lawrence L.; Suarez, Max; Sawyer, William; Govindaraju, Ravi C.

    1999-01-01

    computational efficiency for future SG-GCM and SG-DAS versions using PARALLEL codes.

  20. Future PMPs Estimation in Korea under AR5 RCP 8.5 Climate Change Scenario: Focus on Dew Point Temperature Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Okjeong, Lee; Sangdan, Kim

    2016-04-01

    According to future climate change scenarios, future temperature is expected to increase gradually. Therefore, it is necessary to reflect the effects of these climate changes to predict Probable Maximum Precipitations (PMPs). In this presentation, PMPs will be estimated with future dew point temperature change. After selecting 174 major storm events from 1981 to 2005, new PMPs will be proposed with respect to storm areas (25, 100, 225, 400, 900, 2,025, 4,900, 10,000 and 19,600 km2) and storm durations (1, 2, 4, 6, 8, 12, 18, 24, 48 and 72 hours) using the Korea hydro-meteorological method. Also, orographic transposition factor will be applied in place of the conventional terrain impact factor which has been used in previous Korean PMPs estimation reports. After estimating dew point temperature using future temperature and representative humidity information under the Korea Meteorological Administration AR5 RCP 8.5, changes in the PMPs under dew point temperature change will be investigated by comparison with present and future PMPs. This research was supported by a grant(14AWMP-B082564-01) from Advanced Water Management Research Program funded by Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport of Korean government.

  1. Modelling scenarios on feed-to-fillet transfer of dioxins and dioxin-like PCBs in future feeds to farmed Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar).

    PubMed

    Berntssen, Marc H G; Sanden, Monica; Hove, Helge; Lie, Øyvind

    2016-11-01

    The salmon feed composition has changed the last decade with a replacement of traditionally use of fish oil and fishmeal diets with vegetable ingredients and the use decontaminated fish oils, causing reduced concentrations of dioxins and dioxin-like PCBs in farmed Norwegian Atlantic salmon. The development of novel salmon feeds has prompted the need for prediction on dioxins and dl-PCB concentrations in future farmed salmon. Prediction on fillet dioxins and dl-PCB concentrations from different feed composition scenarios are made using a simple one-compartmental transfer model based on earlier established dioxin and dl-PCB congener specific uptake and elimination kinetics rates. The model is validated with two independent feeding trials, with a significant linear correlation (r(2) = 0.96, y = 1.0x, p < 0.0001, n = 116) between observed and predicted values. Model fillet predictions are made for the following four scenarios; (1) general feed composition of 1999, (2) feed composition of 2013, (3) future feed composition with high fish oil and meal replacement, (4) future feed composition with high fish oil and meal replacement and decontaminated fish oil. Model predictions of fillet dioxin and dl-PCB concentrations from 1999 (1.05 ng WHO2005-TEQs kg(-1)ww) and 2013 (0.57 ng WHO2005-TEQs kg(-1)ww) are in line with the data observed in national surveillance programs of those years (1.1 and 0.52 ng WHO2005-TEQs kg(-1)ww, respectively). Future use of high replacement and decontaminated oils feeds gave predicted fillet concentrations of 0.27 ng WHO2005-TEQs kg(-1)ww, which is near the limit of quantification.

  2. Modelling scenarios on feed-to-fillet transfer of dioxins and dioxin-like PCBs in future feeds to farmed Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar).

    PubMed

    Berntssen, Marc H G; Sanden, Monica; Hove, Helge; Lie, Øyvind

    2016-11-01

    The salmon feed composition has changed the last decade with a replacement of traditionally use of fish oil and fishmeal diets with vegetable ingredients and the use decontaminated fish oils, causing reduced concentrations of dioxins and dioxin-like PCBs in farmed Norwegian Atlantic salmon. The development of novel salmon feeds has prompted the need for prediction on dioxins and dl-PCB concentrations in future farmed salmon. Prediction on fillet dioxins and dl-PCB concentrations from different feed composition scenarios are made using a simple one-compartmental transfer model based on earlier established dioxin and dl-PCB congener specific uptake and elimination kinetics rates. The model is validated with two independent feeding trials, with a significant linear correlation (r(2) = 0.96, y = 1.0x, p < 0.0001, n = 116) between observed and predicted values. Model fillet predictions are made for the following four scenarios; (1) general feed composition of 1999, (2) feed composition of 2013, (3) future feed composition with high fish oil and meal replacement, (4) future feed composition with high fish oil and meal replacement and decontaminated fish oil. Model predictions of fillet dioxin and dl-PCB concentrations from 1999 (1.05 ng WHO2005-TEQs kg(-1)ww) and 2013 (0.57 ng WHO2005-TEQs kg(-1)ww) are in line with the data observed in national surveillance programs of those years (1.1 and 0.52 ng WHO2005-TEQs kg(-1)ww, respectively). Future use of high replacement and decontaminated oils feeds gave predicted fillet concentrations of 0.27 ng WHO2005-TEQs kg(-1)ww, which is near the limit of quantification. PMID:27565308

  3. The Avellino 3780-yr-B.P. catastrophe as a worst-case scenario for a future eruption at Vesuvius.

    PubMed

    Mastrolorenzo, Giuseppe; Petrone, Pierpaolo; Pappalardo, Lucia; Sheridan, Michael F

    2006-03-21

    A volcanic catastrophe even more devastating than the famous anno Domini 79 Pompeii eruption occurred during the Old Bronze Age at Vesuvius. The 3780-yr-B.P. Avellino plinian eruption produced an early violent pumice fallout and a late pyroclastic surge sequence that covered the volcano surroundings as far as 25 km away, burying land and villages. Here we present the reconstruction of this prehistoric catastrophe and its impact on the Bronze Age culture in Campania, drawn from an interdisciplinary volcanological and archaeoanthropological study. Evidence shows that a sudden, en masse evacuation of thousands of people occurred at the beginning of the eruption, before the last destructive plinian column collapse. Most of the fugitives likely survived, but the desertification of the total habitat due to the huge eruption size caused a social-demographic collapse and the abandonment of the entire area for centuries. Because an event of this scale is capable of devastating a broad territory that includes the present metropolitan district of Naples, it should be considered as a reference for the worst eruptive scenario at Vesuvius.

  4. The Avellino 3780-yr-B.P. catastrophe as a worst-case scenario for a future eruption at Vesuvius

    PubMed Central

    Mastrolorenzo, Giuseppe; Petrone, Pierpaolo; Pappalardo, Lucia; Sheridan, Michael F.

    2006-01-01

    A volcanic catastrophe even more devastating than the famous anno Domini 79 Pompeii eruption occurred during the Old Bronze Age at Vesuvius. The 3780-yr-B.P. Avellino plinian eruption produced an early violent pumice fallout and a late pyroclastic surge sequence that covered the volcano surroundings as far as 25 km away, burying land and villages. Here we present the reconstruction of this prehistoric catastrophe and its impact on the Bronze Age culture in Campania, drawn from an interdisciplinary volcanological and archaeoanthropological study. Evidence shows that a sudden, en masse evacuation of thousands of people occurred at the beginning of the eruption, before the last destructive plinian column collapse. Most of the fugitives likely survived, but the desertification of the total habitat due to the huge eruption size caused a social–demographic collapse and the abandonment of the entire area for centuries. Because an event of this scale is capable of devastating a broad territory that includes the present metropolitan district of Naples, it should be considered as a reference for the worst eruptive scenario at Vesuvius. PMID:16537390

  5. Marine downscaling of a future climate scenario in the North Sea and possible effects on dinoflagellate harmful algal blooms.

    PubMed

    Friocourt, Y F; Skogen, M; Stolte, W; Albretsen, J

    2012-01-01

    Two hydrodynamic and ecological models were used to investigate the effects of climate change-according to the IPCC A1b emission scenario - on the primary productivity of the North Sea and on harmful algal blooms. Both models were forced with atmospheric fields from a regional downscaling of General Circulation Models to compare two sets of 20-year simulations representative of present climate (1984-2004) conditions and of the 2040s. Both models indicated a general warming of the North Sea by up to 0.8°C and a slight freshening by the 2040s. The models suggested that the eastern North Sea would be subjected to more temperature and salinity changes than the western part. In addition, the ecological modules of the models indicated that the warming up of the sea would result in a slightly earlier spring bloom. The one model that also computes the distribution of four different phytoplankton groups suggests an increase in the abundance of dinoflagellates, whereas the abundance of diatoms, flagellates and Phaeocystis sp. remains comparable to current levels, or decrease. Assuming that Dinophysis spp. would experience a similar increase in abundance as the modelled group of dinoflagellates, it is hypothesised that blooms of Dinophysis spp. may occur more frequently in the North Sea by 2040. However, implications for shellfish toxicity remain unclear.

  6. A stakeholder project to model water temperature under future climate scenarios in the Satus and Toppenish watersheds of the Yakima River Basinin Washington, USA

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Graves, D.; Maule, A.

    2014-01-01

    The goal of this study was to support an assessment of the potential effects of climate change on select natural, social, and economic resources in the Yakima River Basin. A workshop with local stakeholders highlighted the usefulness of projecting climate change impacts on anadromous steelhead (Oncorhynchus mykiss), a fish species of importance to local tribes, fisherman, and conservationists. Stream temperature is an important environmental variable for the freshwater stages of steelhead. For this study, we developed water temperature models for the Satus and Toppenish watersheds, two of the key stronghold areas for steelhead in the Yakima River Basin. We constructed the models with the Stream Network Temperature Model (SNTEMP), a mechanistic approach to simulate water temperature in a stream network. The models were calibrated over the April 15, 2008 to September 30, 2008 period and validated over the April 15, 2009 to September 30, 2009 period using historic measurements of stream temperature and discharge provided by the Yakama Nation Fisheries Resource Management Program. Once validated, the models were run to simulate conditions during the spring and summer seasons over a baseline period (1981–2005) and two future climate scenarios with increased air temperature of 1°C and 2°C. The models simulated daily mean and maximum water temperatures at sites throughout the two watersheds under the baseline and future climate scenarios.

  7. Comparison of different GCM evaluation methods for NYC watersheds

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anandhi, A.; Frei, A.; Pierson, D. C.; Markensten, H.

    2009-12-01

    To study the potential impacts of climate change on the quantity and quality of water in the New York City (NYC) water supply, a suite of watershed and reservoir models are required. The evaluation of Global circulation models (GCMs) to provide input data for this suite of models becomes important and valuable, as the number of watershed and reservoir model runs for impact studies increases exponentially with every GCM selected. Our objective is to investigate different methods of GCM evaluation. In this study GCM performance refers to how well a GCM simulates the observed climate record. Using a variety of evaluation methods, we compare observed meteorological variables which are required as input to our models with contemporaneous values of variables from GCM simulations. We then investigate different criteria for choosing appropriate evaluation methods.

  8. Characterizing the emission implications of future natural gas production and use in the U.S. and Rocky Mountain region: A scenario-based energy system modeling approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McLeod, Jeffrey

    The recent increase in U.S. natural gas production made possible through advancements in extraction techniques including hydraulic fracturing has transformed the U.S. energy supply landscape while raising questions regarding the balance of environmental impacts associated with natural gas production and use. Impact areas at issue include emissions of methane and criteria pollutants from natural gas production, alongside changes in emissions from increased use of natural gas in place of coal for electricity generation. In the Rocky Mountain region, these impact areas have been subject to additional scrutiny due to the high level of regional oil and gas production activity and concerns over its links to air quality. Here, the MARKAL (MArket ALlocation) least-cost energy system optimization model in conjunction with the EPA-MARKAL nine-region database has been used to characterize future regional and national emissions of CO 2, CH4, VOC, and NOx attributed to natural gas production and use in several sectors of the economy. The analysis is informed by comparing and contrasting a base case, business-as-usual scenario with scenarios featuring variations in future natural gas supply characteristics, constraints affecting the electricity generation mix, carbon emission reduction strategies and increased demand for natural gas in the transportation sector. Emission trends and their associated sensitivities are identified and contrasted between the Rocky Mountain region and the U.S. as a whole. The modeling results of this study illustrate the resilience of the short term greenhouse gas emission benefits associated with fuel switching from coal to gas in the electric sector, but also call attention to the long term implications of increasing natural gas production and use for emissions of methane and VOCs, especially in the Rocky Mountain region. This analysis can help to inform the broader discussion of the potential environmental impacts of future natural gas production

  9. Performance of regional climate models in simulations of present-day Irish climate: Implications for constructing future scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Foley, A. M.

    2009-04-01

    Simulations of present-day (1961-1990) climate from 19 regional climate model experiments have been compared to the observed baseline climate for Ireland. These simulations, driven by global climate models, are obtained through the EC PRUDENCE (Prediction of Regional scenarios and Uncertainties for Defining EuropeaN Climate change risks and Effects) project. The ability to represent the statistics of Irish climate has been assessed, both temporally (comparisons of meteorological year, seasonal mean and seasonal variance) and spatially (seasonal covariation and pattern-analysis) for two key meteorological parameters, that of temperature and precipitation. For the average meteorological year (30-year averages of each month), mean temperatures are found to be within 1.5˚ C of observations, except in winter, when temperatures are overestimated by up to 2.5˚ C. Temporal variation is also not well-represented by some models in winter. Conversely, temporal variation in precipitation is most poorly simulated in summer. Seasonal variance is the area in which greatest inter-model variability is shown. Ratio of observed variance to modeled variance ranges from weak (0.5 or less) to very strong (greater than 0.7) in both seasons, and for both parameters. Spatially, temperature is over-estimated throughout Ireland, by up to 4.6˚ C in winter and 2.7˚ C in summer in individual grid cells from some models. Precipitation is found to be both under and over-estimated, with grid cell biases ranging from -2.5 mm/day to 4.2 mm/day in winter and from -1.2 mm/day to 1.8 mm/day in summer. While skill at representing the spatial precipitation pattern is found to be very strong in 16 out of 19 experiments in winter, only 2 of those experiments show the same level of skill in summer. Errors are identified in all individual models, both systematic and random. While using an ensemble average overcomes some of these deficiencies, the optimal approach is to correct systematic errors

  10. Neotropical vegetation responses to Younger Dryas climates as analogs for future climate change scenarios and lessons for conservation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rull, V.; Vegas-Vilarrúbia, T.; Montoya, E.

    2015-05-01

    The Younger Dryas (YD) climatic reversal (12.86-11.65 cal ky BP), especially the warming initiated at ∼12.6 cal ky BP, and the associated vegetation changes have been proposed as past analogs to forecast the potential vegetation responses to future global warming. In this paper, we applied this model to highland and midland Neotropical localities. We used pollen analysis of lake sediments to record vegetation responses to YD climatic changes, which are reconstructed from independent paleoclimatic proxies such as the Mg/Ca ratio on foraminiferal tests and Equilibrium Line Altitude (ELA) for paleotemperature, and grayscale density and Titanium content for paleoprecipitation. Paleoclimatic reconstructions at both highlands and midlands showed a clear YD signal with a conspicuous warming extending into the early Holocene. A small percentage of taxa resulted to be sensitive to these YD climate changes. Response lags were negligible at the resolution of the study. However, changes in the sensitive taxa were relevant enough to determine changes in biodiversity and taxonomic composition. Highland vegetation experienced mainly intra-community reorganizations, whereas midland vegetation underwent major changes leading to community substitutions. This was explained in terms of threshold-crossing non-linear responses in which the coupling of climatic and other forcings (fire) was proposed as the main driving mechanism. Paleoecology provides meaningful insights on the responses of highland and midland Neotropical vegetation to the YD climatic reversal. Biotic responses at both individual (species) and collective (assemblage) levels showed patterns and processes of vegetation change useful to understand its ecological dynamics, as well as the mechanisms and external drivers involved. The use of paleoecological methods to document the biotic responses to the YD climate shifts can be useful to help forecasting the potential consequences of future global warming. Due to its quasi

  11. Seasonal Predictions with the GEOS GCM

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schubert, Siegfried; Chang, Yehui; Suarez, Max

    1999-01-01

    A number of ensembles of seasonal forecasts have recently been completed as part of NASA's Seasonal to Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP). The focus is on the extratropical response of the atmosphere to observed Surface Sea Temperature (SST) anomalies during boreal winter. The prediction experiments consist of nine forecasts starting from slightly different initial conditions for each year of the 15 year period 1981-95, employing version 2 of the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) atmospheric Global Circulation Models (GCM). The initial conditions are obtained from the NASA GEOS-1 reanalysis data. Comparisons with a companion set of six long-term simulations with observed SST (starting in 1978, so they have no memory of the initial conditions for the periods of interest) are used to assess the relative contributions of the initial conditions and SST anomalies to forecast skill ranging from daily to seasonal time scales. The ensembles are used to isolate the signal, and to assess the nature of the inherent variability (noise) of the forecasts.

  12. Current and future carbon export by the Connecticut River: using streamflow data archives and rating curves to model annual and seasonal constituent loads under future discharge scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Petsch, S.; Armfield, J. R.

    2013-12-01

    Rivers deliver play an important role in global carbon and nutrient cycling through delivery of organic matter to the oceans. However, connections between carbon export and the processes that control river discharge and landscape erosion are poorly understood in modern river systems, hampering efforts to make predictions about watershed carbon export in the face of future land-use and climate changes. The impacts of future changes can be estimated by exploring relationships between river discharge and constituent loads using long-term archives of streamflow and water quality. Here, we use data from USGS streamgage 01184000 to examine the relationships between discharge and constituent loads in the Connecticut River, northeast USA. 85 years of daily discharge data were used to establish probability distributions for annual and seasonal river discharge. Constituent loads (TSS, POC, DOC) and characteristics (POC C/N ratios, % OC in suspended sediments) were used with discharge to determine the form and significance of constituent rating curves. TSS and POC loads follow distinct positive power-law relationships with discharge. Discharge is negatively correlated with weight % OC in suspended sediments and positively correlated with POC C/N ratios. DOC concentrations do not vary with discharge. POC and TSS rating curves vary by season, but the significance of these differences is low (r2<0.5, p >0.10). Annual mean POC concentrations are 0.5 mg/L, with mean spring POC concentrations (0.7 mg/L) being twice those of summer. Annual mean DOC concentrations are approx. 4 mg/L. Mean annual POC C/N ratios are 8.1, with higher ratios in winter and spring, and lower ratios in summer and fall. The mean annual % OC in suspended sediments is nearly 6%; mean % OC in summer and fall suspended sediments is over 7% while mean % OC in spring suspended sediments is 2.9%. Mean daily spring discharge is twice the annual mean discharge and nearly four times the mean daily summer discharge. As

  13. Future scenarios of land-use and land-cover change in the United States--the Marine West Coast Forests Ecoregion

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wilson, Tamara S.; Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Sohl, Terry L.; Griffith, Glenn; Acevedo, William; Bennett, Stacie; Bouchard, Michelle; Reker, Ryan; Ryan, Christy; Sayler, Kristi L.; Sleeter, Rachel; Soulard, Christopher E.

    2012-01-01

    Detecting, quantifying, and projecting historical and future changes in land use and land cover (LULC) has emerged as a core research area for the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). Changes in LULC are important drivers of changes to biogeochemical cycles, the exchange of energy between the Earth’s surface and atmosphere, biodiversity, water quality, and climate change. To quantify the rates of recent historical LULC change, the USGS Land Cover Trends project recently completed a unique ecoregion-based assessment of late 20th century LULC change for the western United States. To characterize present LULC, the USGS and partners have created the National Land Cover Database (NLCD) for the years 1992, 2001, and 2006. Both Land Cover Trends and NLCD projects continue to evolve in an effort to better characterize historical and present LULC conditions and are the foundation of the data presented in this report. Projecting future changes in LULC requires an understanding of the rates and patterns of change, the major driving forces, and the socioeconomic and biophysical determinants and capacities of regions. The data presented in this report is the result of an effort by USGS scientists to downscale the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) to ecoregions of the conterminous United States as part of the USGS Biological Carbon Sequestration Assessment. The USGS biological carbon assessment was mandated by Section 712 of the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007. As part of the legislative mandate, the USGS is required to publish a methodology describing, in detail, the approach to be used for the assessment. The development of future LULC scenarios is described in chapter 3.2 and appendix A. Spatial modeling is described in chapter 3.3.2 and appendix B and in Sohl and others (2011). In this report, we briefly summarize the major components and methods used to downscale IPCC-SRES scenarios to ecoregions of the

  14. Assessment of future scenarios for wind erosion sensitivity changes based on ALADIN and REMO regional climate model simulation data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mezősi, Gábor; Blanka, Viktória; Bata, Teodóra; Ladányi, Zsuzsanna; Kemény, Gábor; Meyer, Burghard C.

    2016-07-01

    The changes in rate and pattern of wind erosion sensitivity due to climate change were investigated for 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 compared to the reference period (1961-1990) in Hungary. The sensitivities of the main influencing factors (soil texture, vegetation cover and climate factor) were evaluated by fuzzy method and a combined wind erosion sensitivity map was compiled. The climate factor, as the driving factor of the changes, was assessed based on observed data for the reference period, while REMO and ALADIN regional climate model simulation data for the future periods. The changes in wind erosion sensitivity were evaluated on potentially affected agricultural land use types, and hot spot areas were allocated. Based on the results, 5-6% of the total agricultural areas were high sensitive areas in the reference period. In the 21st century slight or moderate changes of wind erosion sensitivity can be expected, and mostly `pastures', `complex cultivation patterns', and `land principally occupied by agriculture with significant areas of natural vegetation' are affected. The applied combination of multi-indicator approach and fuzzy analysis provides novelty in the field of land sensitivity assessment. The method is suitable for regional scale analysis of wind erosion sensitivity changes and supports regional planning by allocating priority areas where changes in agro-technics or land use have to be considered.

  15. The Simulation of Daily Temperature Time Series from GCM Output. Part II: Sensitivity Analysis of an Empirical Transfer Function Methodology.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Winkler, Julie A.; Palutikof, Jean P.; Andresen, Jeffrey A.; Goodess, Clare M.

    1997-10-01

    Empirical transfer functions have been proposed as a means for `downscaling' simulations from general circulation models (GCMs) to the local scale. However, subjective decisions made during the development of these functions may influence the ensuing climate scenarios. This research evaluated the sensitivity of a selected empirical transfer function methodology to 1) the definition of the seasons for which separate specification equations are derived, 2) adjustments for known departures of the GCM simulations of the predictor variables from observations, 3) the length of the calibration period, 4) the choice of function form, and 5) the choice of predictor variables. A modified version of the Climatological Projection by Model Statistics method was employed to generate control (1 × CO2) and perturbed (2 × CO2) scenarios of daily maximum and minimum temperature for two locations with diverse climates (Alcantarilla, Spain, and Eau Claire, Michigan). The GCM simulations used in the scenario development were from the Canadian Climate Centre second-generation model (CCC GCMII).Variations in the downscaling methodology were found to have a statistically significant impact on the 2 × CO2 climate scenarios, even though the 1 × CO2 scenarios for the different transfer function approaches were often similar. The daily temperature scenarios for Alcantarilla and Eau Claire were most sensitive to the decision to adjust for deficiencies in the GCM simulations, the choice of predictor variables, and the seasonal definitions used to derive the functions (i.e., fixed seasons, floating seasons, or no seasons). The scenarios were less sensitive to the choice of function form (i.e., linear versus nonlinear) and to an increase in the length of the calibration period.The results of Part I, which identified significant departures of the CCC GCMII simulations of two candidate predictor variables from observations, together with those presented here in Part II, 1) illustrate the

  16. The impacts of future climate and carbon dioxide changes on the average and variability of US maize yields under two emission scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Urban, Daniel W.; Sheffield, Justin; Lobell, David B.

    2015-04-01

    The United States is the largest producer of maize in the world, a crop for which demand continues to rise rapidly. Past studies have projected that climate change will negatively impact mean maize yields in this region, while at the same time increasing yield variability. However, some have questioned the accuracy of these projections because they are often based on indirect measures of soil moisture, have failed to explicitly capture the potential interactions between temperature and soil moisture availability, and often omit the beneficial effects of elevated carbon dioxide (CO2) on transpiration efficiency. Here we use a new detailed dataset on field-level yields in Iowa, Indiana, and Illinois, along with fine-resolution daily weather data and moisture reconstructions, to evaluate the combined effects of moisture and heat on maize yields in the region. Projected climate change scenarios over this region from a suite of CMIP5 models are then used to assess future impacts and the differences between two contrasting emissions scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). We show that (i) statistical models which explicitly account for interactions between heat and moisture, which have not been represented in previous empirical models, lead to significant model improvement and significantly higher projected yield variability under warming and drying trends than when accounting for each factor independently; (ii) inclusion of the benefits of elevated CO2 significantly reduces impacts, particularly for yield variability; and (iii) net damages from climate change and CO2 become larger for the higher emission scenario in the latter half of the 21st century, and significantly so by the end of century.

  17. Information content of downscaled GCM precipitation variables for crop simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ines, A. V. M.; Mishra, A. K.

    2015-12-01

    A simple statistical downscaling procedure for transforming daily global climate model (GCM) rainfall was applied at the local scale in Katumani, Kenya. We corrected the rainfall frequency bias of the GCM by truncating its daily rainfall cumulative distribution into the station's distribution using a wet-day threshold. Then, we corrected the GCM's rainfall intensity bias by mapping its truncated rainfall distribution into the station's truncated distribution. Additional tailoring was made to the bias corrected GCM rainfall by linking it with a stochastic disaggregation scheme based on a conditional stochastic weather generator to correct the temporal structure inherent with daily GCM rainfall. Results of the simple and hybridized GCM downscaled precipitation variables (total, probability of occurrence, intensity and dry spell length) were linked with a crop model. An objective evaluation of the tailored GCM data was done using entropy. This study is useful for the identification of the most suitable downscaling technique, as well as the most effective precipitation variables for forecasting crop yields.

  18. Flying the TRMM Satellite in a GCM

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lin, Xin; Fowler, Laura D.; Randall, David A.

    2001-01-01

    By incorporating the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) satellite orbital information into the Colorado State University General Circulation Model (CSU GCM), we are able to 'fly' a satellite in the GCM, and sample the simulated atmosphere in the same way as the TRMM sensors sample the real atmosphere. The TRMM-sampled statistics for precipitation and radiative fluxes at annual, intraseasonal, monthly-mean and seasonal-mean diurnal time scales are evaluated by comparing the satellite-sampled against fully-sampled simulated atmospheres. The sampling rates of the TRMM sensors are significantly affected by the sensors' swath widths. The TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) and the Visible Infrared Scanner (VIRS) sample each 2.25 x 2.25 degree grid box in the Tropics and subtropics about once per day, but at a different local time every day, while the Precipitation Radar (PR) and the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) sensor visit each grid box about once every three days and twice per day, respectively. Besides inadequate samplings resulting from sensors' swath widths, there is a large, systematic diurnal undersampling associated with TRMM's orbital geometry for grid boxes away from the Equator. When only one month of TRMM data are used, this diurnal undersampling can lead to more daytime samples relative to nighttime samples in one hemisphere, and more nighttime samples relative to daytime samples in the other hemisphere. The resulting sampling biases (3-6 W m(exp-2)) are very pronounced in outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) over the subtropical land masses. The sampling errors in OLR monthly- and seasonal-means are less than 8 W m(exp-2) (5%) for each 2.25 x 2.25 degree grid box. The OLR monthly- and seasonal-means are not sensitive to diurnal undersamplings associated with the TRMM orbits and sensors' swath widths. However, this is not the case for total precipitation. Diurnal undersampling could produce errors as large as 20% in the Tropics and 40

  19. Changes in southern Piedmont grassland community structure and nutritive quality with future climate scenarios of elevated tropospheric ozone and altered rainfall patterns.

    PubMed

    Gilliland, N J; Chappelka, A H; Muntifering, R B; Ditchkoff, S S

    2016-01-01

    Forage species common to the southern USA Piedmont region, Lolium arundinacea, Paspalum dilatatum, Cynodon dactylon and Trifolium repens, were established in a model pasture system to test the future climate change scenario of increasing ozone exposure in combination with varying rainfall amounts on community structure and nutritive quality. Forages were exposed to two levels of ozone [ambient (non-filtered; NF) and twice ambient (2×) concentrations] with three levels of precipitation (average or ±20% of average) in modified open-top chambers (OTCs) from June to September 2009. Dry matter (DM) yield did not differ over the growing season between forage types, except in primary growth grasses where DM yield was higher in 2× than NF treatment. Primary growth clover decreased in nutritive quality in 2× ozone because of increased concentrations of neutral detergent fibre (NDF), acid detergent fibre (ADF) and acid detergent lignin (ADL). Re-growth clover exhibited the largest decrease in nutritive quality, whereas grasses were not adversely affected in 2× ozone. Re-growth grasses responded positively to 2× ozone exposure, as indicated in increased relative food value (RFV) and percentage crude protein (CP) than NF-exposed re-growth grasses. Effects of precipitation were not significant over the growing season for primary or re-growth forage, except in primary growth grasses where DM yield was higher in chambers with above average (+20%) precipitation. Total canopy cover was significantly higher over the growing season in chambers receiving above average precipitation, but no significant effects were observed with ozone. Results indicate shifts in plant community structure and functioning related to mammalian herbivore herbivory in future climate change scenarios.

  20. Environmental impact assessment and monetary ecosystem service valuation of an ecosystem under different future environmental change and management scenarios; a case study of a Scots pine forest.

    PubMed

    Schaubroeck, Thomas; Deckmyn, Gaby; Giot, Olivier; Campioli, Matteo; Vanpoucke, Charlotte; Verheyen, Kris; Rugani, Benedetto; Achten, Wouter; Verbeeck, Hans; Dewulf, Jo; Muys, Bart

    2016-05-15

    For a sustainable future, we must sustainably manage not only the human/industrial system but also ecosystems. To achieve the latter goal, we need to predict the responses of ecosystems and their provided services to management practices under changing environmental conditions via ecosystem models and use tools to compare the estimated provided services between the different scenarios. However, scientific articles have covered a limited amount of estimated ecosystem services and have used tools to aggregate services that contain a significant amount of subjective aspects and that represent the final result in a non-tangible unit such as 'points'. To resolve these matters, this study quantifies the environmental impact (on human health, natural systems and natural resources) in physical units and uses an ecosystem service valuation based on monetary values (including ecosystem disservices with associated negative monetary values). More specifically, the paper also focuses on the assessment of ecosystem services related to pollutant removal/generation flows, accounting for the inflow of eutrophying nitrogen (N) when assessing the effect of N leached to groundwater. Regarding water use/provisioning, evapotranspiration is alternatively considered a disservice because it implies a loss of (potential) groundwater. These approaches and improvements, relevant to all ecosystems, are demonstrated using a Scots pine stand from 2010 to 2089 for a combination of three environmental change and three management scenarios. The environmental change scenarios considered interannual climate variability trends and included alterations in temperature, precipitation, nitrogen deposition, wind speed, Particulate matter (PM) concentration and CO2 concentration. The addressed flows/ecosystem services, including disservices, are as follows: particulate matter removal, freshwater loss, CO2 sequestration, wood production, NOx emissions, NH3 uptake and nitrogen pollution/removal. The monetary

  1. Environmental impact assessment and monetary ecosystem service valuation of an ecosystem under different future environmental change and management scenarios; a case study of a Scots pine forest.

    PubMed

    Schaubroeck, Thomas; Deckmyn, Gaby; Giot, Olivier; Campioli, Matteo; Vanpoucke, Charlotte; Verheyen, Kris; Rugani, Benedetto; Achten, Wouter; Verbeeck, Hans; Dewulf, Jo; Muys, Bart

    2016-05-15

    For a sustainable future, we must sustainably manage not only the human/industrial system but also ecosystems. To achieve the latter goal, we need to predict the responses of ecosystems and their provided services to management practices under changing environmental conditions via ecosystem models and use tools to compare the estimated provided services between the different scenarios. However, scientific articles have covered a limited amount of estimated ecosystem services and have used tools to aggregate services that contain a significant amount of subjective aspects and that represent the final result in a non-tangible unit such as 'points'. To resolve these matters, this study quantifies the environmental impact (on human health, natural systems and natural resources) in physical units and uses an ecosystem service valuation based on monetary values (including ecosystem disservices with associated negative monetary values). More specifically, the paper also focuses on the assessment of ecosystem services related to pollutant removal/generation flows, accounting for the inflow of eutrophying nitrogen (N) when assessing the effect of N leached to groundwater. Regarding water use/provisioning, evapotranspiration is alternatively considered a disservice because it implies a loss of (potential) groundwater. These approaches and improvements, relevant to all ecosystems, are demonstrated using a Scots pine stand from 2010 to 2089 for a combination of three environmental change and three management scenarios. The environmental change scenarios considered interannual climate variability trends and included alterations in temperature, precipitation, nitrogen deposition, wind speed, Particulate matter (PM) concentration and CO2 concentration. The addressed flows/ecosystem services, including disservices, are as follows: particulate matter removal, freshwater loss, CO2 sequestration, wood production, NOx emissions, NH3 uptake and nitrogen pollution/removal. The monetary

  2. Future changes in summer precipitation in regional climate simulations over the Korean Peninsula forced by multi-RCP scenarios of HadGEM2-AO

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cha, Dong-Hyun; Lee, Dong-Kyou; Jin, Chun-Sil; Kim, Gayoung; Choi, Yonghan; Suh, Myoung-Seok; Ahn, Joong-Bae; Hong, Song-You; Min, Seung-Ki; Park, Seong-Chan; Kang, Hyun-Suk

    2016-05-01

    In this study, the regional climate of the Korean Peninsula (KP) was dynamically downscaled using a high-resolution regional climate model (RCM) forced by multi- representative concentration pathways (RCP) scenarios of HadGEM2-AO, and changes in summer precipitation were investigated. Through the evaluation of the present climate, the RCM reasonably reproduced long-term climatology of summer precipitation over the KP, and captured the sub-seasonal evolution of Changma rain-band. In future projections, all RCP experiments using different RCP radiative forcings (i.e., RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5 runs) simulated an increased summer precipitation over the KP. However, there were some differences in changing rates of summer precipitation among the RCP experiments. Future increases in summer precipitation were affected by future changes in moisture convergence and surface evaporation. Changing ranges in moisture convergences among RCP experiments were significantly larger than those in surface evaporation. This indicates that the uncertainty of changes in summer precipitation is related to the projection of the monsoon circulation, which determines the moisture convergence field through horizontal advection. Changes in the sub-seasonal evolution of Changma rain-band were inconsistent among RCP experiments. However, all experiments showed that Changma rain-band was enhanced during late June to early July, but it was weakened after mid-July due to the expansion of the western North Pacific subtropical high. These results indicate that precipitation intensity related to Changma rain-band will be increased, but its duration will be reduced in the future.

  3. Continental Moisture Availability and Planetary Temperature in an Idealized GCM

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Scheff, J.; Frierson, D. M.

    2014-12-01

    In CMIP-class GCMs, land tends to "dry out" with greenhouse warming outside of the high latitudes, as evaporative demand consistently increases but mean precipitation does not. Soil moisture, relative humidity, and common water-availability indices tend to decline. Yet, paleoclimate evidence is usually interpreted to imply that past greenhouse climates were generally well-watered on land, while glacial periods were generally arid - just the opposite. Motivated by this apparent discrepancy, we perform greenhouse warming experiments over a wide range of planetary temperatures with a slab-ocean atmospheric GCM coupled to a simple land-surface water/energy balance model in idealized continental geometry. We assess the results using several nondimensional measures. The mean-state terrestrial aridity strongly depends on the extent of subtropical seaways and on the prescribed ocean heat transport. Unexpectedly, the aridity responses to warming can dramatically differ from the canonical CMIP story. In very wet terrestrial settings, including much of the mid-latitudes and sometimes the tropics as well, precipitation can increase enough to stop evaporative demand from increasing at all. This is a tantalizing analog to the paleo-evidence. However, when the terrestrial tropics are drier, precipitation there declines very strongly with greenhouse warming even as tropical ocean precipitation increases, causing strong aridification. Future work will seek to understand these and other surprising results, and to explain why they do not generally occur in the full GCMs.

  4. Future change of climate in South America in the late twenty-first century: intercomparison of scenarios from three regional climate models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marengo, Jose A.; Ambrizzi, Tercio; Da Rocha, Rosmeri P.; Alves, Lincoln M.; Cuadra, Santiago V.; Valverde, Maria C.; Torres, Roger R.; Santos, Daniel C.; Ferraz, Simone E. T.

    2010-11-01

    Regional climate change projections for the last half of the twenty-first century have been produced for South America, as part of the CREAS (Cenarios REgionalizados de Clima Futuro da America do Sul) regional project. Three regional climate models RCMs (Eta CCS, RegCM3 and HadRM3P) were nested within the HadAM3P global model. The simulations cover a 30-year period representing present climate (1961-1990) and projections for the IPCC A2 high emission scenario for 2071-2100. The focus was on the changes in the mean circulation and surface variables, in particular, surface air temperature and precipitation. There is a consistent pattern of changes in circulation, rainfall and temperatures as depicted by the three models. The HadRM3P shows intensification and a more southward position of the subtropical Pacific high, while a pattern of intensification/weakening during summer/winter is projected by the Eta CCS/RegCM3. There is a tendency for a weakening of the subtropical westerly jet from the Eta CCS and HadRM3P, consistent with other studies. There are indications that regions such of Northeast Brazil and central-eastern and southern Amazonia may experience rainfall deficiency in the future, while the Northwest coast of Peru-Ecuador and northern Argentina may experience rainfall excesses in a warmer future, and these changes may vary with the seasons. The three models show warming in the A2 scenario stronger in the tropical region, especially in the 5°N-15°S band, both in summer and especially in winter, reaching up to 6-8°C warmer than in the present. In southern South America, the warming in summer varies between 2 and 4°C and in winter between 3 and 5°C in the same region from the 3 models. These changes are consistent with changes in low level circulation from the models, and they are comparable with changes in rainfall and temperature extremes reported elsewhere. In summary, some aspects of projected future climate change are quite robust across this set of

  5. An evaluation of the impacts of energy tree plantations on water resources in the United Kingdom under present and future UKCIP02 climate scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Calder, Ian R.; Nisbet, Tom; Harrison, Jennifer A.

    2009-07-01

    The Hydrological Land Use Change model was used to assess the range of water resource impacts associated with four potential energy tree species (Eucalyptus nitens, Eucalyptus gunnii, Nothofagus sp., and Fraxinus excelsior) at eight United Kingdom locations under present and future, Environment Agency Rainfall and Weather Impacts Generator, climate scenarios generated using UK Climate Impacts Programme 2002 (UKCIP02). Parameter values were derived using expert opinion and interpolation because of limited data. For Fraxinus excelsior, there are questions concerning the unusual, in a world context, published findings that evaporation from a tree crop is less than that from grass. Model predictions indicated that under the present climate all tree species, excepting Fraxinus excelsior, at all sites have greater mean annual evaporation, (8 to 84%) and reduced water yields (-6 to -97%) compared with grass. The predicted increase in tree evaporation arises from parameter values reflecting both increased rainfall interception and higher transpiration due to deeper rooting depths. Under future climate scenarios, (1) "potential annual yield" (difference between actual rainfall and potential evaporation) will decrease, becoming negative at all studied sites in England and Wales by 2080; (2) at drier sites and for species with highest evaporation rates, E. nitens and Nothofagus, evaporation rates will decrease; (3) at wetter sites and for all species, evaporation rates will increase; (4) at all sites and for all species, water yields will decrease; (5) differences between species remain the same, with evaporation rates increasing and water yield decreasing in the order Fraxinus excelsior, grass, E. gunnii, Nothofagus, and E. Nitens; and (6) there is an overall trend through time toward convergence in water yields from trees and grass. If higher water yield predictions for Fraxinus excelsior are proved correct, this would represent an attractive land use option for water and

  6. An electricity-focused economic input-output model: Life-cycle assessment and policy implications of future electricity generation scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marriott, Joe

    The electricity industry is extremely important to both our economy and our environment. We would like to be able to examine the economic, environmental and policy implications of both future electricity scenarios which include advanced generation technologies such as gasified coal, and of the products and processes which will use them, along with the interaction of this industry with the rest of the economy. This work builds upon an existing economic input-output framework, by adding detail about the electricity industry, specifically by differentiating among the various functions of the sector, and the different means of generating power. The mix of electricity consumed at any stage in the life-cycle of a product, process or industrial sector has a significant effect on the associated inventory of emissions. Fossil fuel or nuclear generators, large-scale hydroelectric, and renewable options such as geothermal, wind and solar each have a unique set of issues---both in the production of electricity at the plant and throughout the supply chain. Decision makers need better information regarding the environmental and economic impact of the electricity industry, including full supply chain details---the interaction of the electricity industry with the other 500 sectors of the economy. A systematic method for creating updated state level and sector generation mixes is developed. The results show that most sector mixes are very close to the U.S. average due to geographic dispersion of industries, but that some sectors are different, and they tend to be important raw material extraction or primary manufacturing industries. We then build a flexible framework for creating new sectors, supply chains and emission factors for the generation, transmission and distribution portions of the electricity industry. We look at scenarios of the present and future, for electricity and for particular products, and develop results which show environmental impacts split up by generation

  7. Simulated Extreme Prepitation Indices over Northeast Brasil in Current Climate and Future Scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wender Santiago Marinho, Marcos; Araújo Costa, Alexandre; Cassain Sales, Domingo; Oliveira Guimarães, Sullyandro; Mariano da Silva, Emerson; das Chagas Vasconcelos Júnior, Francisco

    2013-04-01

    In this study, we analyzed extreme precipitation indices, for present and future modeled climates over Northeast of Brazil (NEB), from CORDEX simulations over the domain of Tropical Americas. The period for the model validation was from 1989-2007, using data from the European Center (ECWMF) Reanalysis, ERA-INTERIM, as input to drive the regional model (RAMS 6.0). Reanalysis data were assimilated via both lateral boundaries and the entire domain (a much weaker "central nudging"). Six indices of extreme precipitation were calculated over NEB: the average number of days above 10, 20 and 30 mm in one year (R10, R20, R30), the number of consecutive dry days (CDD), the number of consecutive wet days (CWD) and the maximum rainfall in five consecutive days (RX5). Those indices were compared against two independent databases: MERRA (Modern Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications) and TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission). After validation, climate simulations were performed for the present climate (1985-2005) and short-term (2015-2035), mid-term (2045-2065) and long-term (2079 to 2099) future climates for two scenarios: RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, nesting RAMS into HadGEM2-ES global model (a participant of CMIP5). Along with the indices, we also calculated Probability Distribution Functions (PDFs) to study the behavior of daily precipitation in the present and by the end of the 21st century (2079 to 2099) to assess possible changes under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5. The regional model is capable of representing relatively well the extreme precipitation indices for current climate, but there is some difficulties in performing a proper validation since the observed databases disagree significantly. Future projections show significant changes in most extreme indices. Rnn generally tend to increase, especially under RCP8.5. More significant changes are projected for the long-term period, under RCP8.5, which shows a pronounced R30 enhancement over northern states. CDD tends

  8. Rapid Loss of Andean Alpine Glaciers: A Reflection on Cotopaxi´s Long-Distance Historical Lahars and Future Lahar Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mothes, P. A.; Hall, M. L.; Samaniego, P.; Francou, B.; Castro, M.; Hidalgo, X.

    2007-05-01

    Andean alpine glaciers are in rapid retreat, as witnessed by actual measurements, comparative imagery and popular memory. Overall glacier losses will diminish future water availability for human consumption as well as for lahar generation, the product of mixing incandescent eruptive materials with glacial ice and snow. The field study and modeling of long-distance historical lahars from Cotopaxi volcano, Ecuador has shown them to be some of the most voluminous and longest reported. Based on back calculations, peak discharges were commonly between 45,000-60,000 m3/sec, velocities reached 70 km/hr, and run outs attained 325 km. The last "super" debris flow was produced at Cotopaxi in 1877. Observations made after the 1877 eruption reported that the glacier had suffered about 10 meters of ice stripped off the top and the incision of deep gullies from melting and erosion by the scoria block-rich pyroclastic flows. Average reductions of 45% and 60%, respectively, of the area and volume of Cotopaxi´s 19 alpine glaciers during the last 30 years have left an ice cap of only 13 km2 and a volume of 0.60 km3. Descriptions by astute 18th and 19th century observers lead us to conclude that Cotopaxi glaciers were much more robust then, surpassing a total area of about 30 km2, a fact which contributed to generating large volume lahars and high discharges, during the waning "Little Ice Age". If an eruption similar to that of 1877 occurs at Cotopaxi in the future, reduced glacier sizes and the glaciers´ preferential distribution upon the cone will likely attenuate volcano-ice interactions and will lower the probability of "super" lahars being produced during eruptive periods. However, in the last 2000 years of eruptive activity, explosive eruptions display a large size span-- from weakly explosive events (VEI= 2) to highly explosive eruptive cycles (VEI= 4-5). Given the uncertainty of the size of the next explosive eruption of Cotopaxi, several scenarios for lahar generation must

  9. Tidal Signals In GOCE Measurements And Time-GCM

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hausler, K.; Hagan, M. E.; Lu, G.; Doornbos, E.; Bruinsma, S.; Forbes, J. M.

    2013-12-01

    In this paper we investigate tidal signatures in GOCE measurements during 15-24 November 2009 and complementary simulations with the Thermosphere-Ionosphere- Mesosphere-Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (TIME-GCM). The TIME-GCM simulations are driven by inputs that represent the prevailing solar and geomagnetic conditions along with tidal and planetary waves applied at the lower boundary (ca. 30km). For this pilot study, the resultant TIME-GCM densities are analyzed in two ways: 1) we use results along the GOCE orbital track, to calculate ascending/descending orbit longitude- latitude density difference and sum maps for direct comparison with the GOCE diagnostics, and 2) we conduct a complete analysis of TIME-GCM results to unambiguously characterize the simulated atmospheric tides and to attribute the observed longitude variations to specific tidal components. TIME-GCM captures some but not all of the observed longitudinal variability. The good data- model agreement for wave-2, wave-3, and wave-4 suggests that thermospheric impacts can be attributed to the DE1, DE2, DE3, S0, SE1, and SE2 tides. Discrepancies between TIME-GCM and GOCE results are most prominent in the wave-1 variations, and suggest that further refinement of the lower boundary forcing is necessary before we extend our analysis and interpretation to densities associated with the remainder of the GOCE mission.

  10. Scenario Planning in Higher Education.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rieley, James

    Scenario planning can help institutions change the mental models used in planning to achieve a focus on the long-term future, rather than on the immediate future. While institutional survival depends upon the ability to detect and adapt to critical changes in the environment, all institutions face a wide range of potential future scenarios. By…

  11. Educational Scenarios for Digital Futures

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schuck, Sandy; Aubusson, Peter

    2010-01-01

    This article frames and theorises the nature of adolescents' informal experiences in Web 2.0 environments to articulate their fit or misfit with current conceptions of school education and educational practices. Adolescents are increasingly active Web 2.0 users. However, the traditional research and education communities have been slow to respond…

  12. Scenario 2000: Intercepting the Future.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Keough, Katherine E.

    This monograph (developed along with an accompanying slide presentation) is designed to stimulate the creative thinking of educational policymakers in response to the massive and rapid social upheavals occurring in the economy and at home--and consequently among the students themselves. After a brief introductory overview of these changes and…

  13. Ecological and geographical analysis of the distribution of the mountain tapir (Tapirus pinchaque) in Ecuador: importance of protected areas in future scenarios of global warming.

    PubMed

    Ortega-Andrade, H Mauricio; Prieto-Torres, David A; Gómez-Lora, Ignacio; Lizcano, Diego J

    2015-01-01

    In Ecuador, Tapirus pinchaque is considered to be critically endangered. Although the species has been registered in several localities, its geographic distribution remains unclear, and the effects of climate change and current land uses on this species are largely unknown. We modeled the ecological niche of T. pinchaque using MaxEnt, in order to assess its potential adaptation to present and future climate change scenarios. We evaluated the effects of habitat loss due by current land use, the ecosystem availability and importance of Ecuadorian System of Protected Areas into the models. The model of environmental suitability estimated an extent of occurrence for species of 21,729 km2 in all of Ecuador, mainly occurring along the corridor of the eastern Ecuadorian Andes. A total of 10 Andean ecosystems encompassed ~98% of the area defined by the model, with herbaceous paramo, northeastern Andean montane evergreen forest and northeastern Andes upper montane evergreen forest being the most representative. When considering the effect of habitat loss, a significant reduction in model area (~17%) occurred, and the effect of climate change represented a net reduction up to 37.86%. However, the synergistic effect of both climate change and habitat loss, given current land use practices, could represent a greater risk in the short-term, leading to a net reduction of 19.90 to 44.65% in T. pinchaque's potential distribution. Even under such a scenarios, several Protected Areas harbor a portion (~36 to 48%) of the potential distribution defined by the models. However, the central and southern populations are highly threatened by habitat loss and climate change. Based on these results and due to the restricted home range of T. pinchaque, its preference for upland forests and paramos, and its small estimated population size in the Andes, we suggest to maintaining its current status as Critically Endangered in Ecuador.

  14. Ecological and geographical analysis of the distribution of the mountain tapir (Tapirus pinchaque) in Ecuador: importance of protected areas in future scenarios of global warming.

    PubMed

    Ortega-Andrade, H Mauricio; Prieto-Torres, David A; Gómez-Lora, Ignacio; Lizcano, Diego J

    2015-01-01

    In Ecuador, Tapirus pinchaque is considered to be critically endangered. Although the species has been registered in several localities, its geographic distribution remains unclear, and the effects of climate change and current land uses on this species are largely unknown. We modeled the ecological niche of T. pinchaque using MaxEnt, in order to assess its potential adaptation to present and future climate change scenarios. We evaluated the effects of habitat loss due by current land use, the ecosystem availability and importance of Ecuadorian System of Protected Areas into the models. The model of environmental suitability estimated an extent of occurrence for species of 21,729 km2 in all of Ecuador, mainly occurring along the corridor of the eastern Ecuadorian Andes. A total of 10 Andean ecosystems encompassed ~98% of the area defined by the model, with herbaceous paramo, northeastern Andean montane evergreen forest and northeastern Andes upper montane evergreen forest being the most representative. When considering the effect of habitat loss, a significant reduction in model area (~17%) occurred, and the effect of climate change represented a net reduction up to 37.86%. However, the synergistic effect of both climate change and habitat loss, given current land use practices, could represent a greater risk in the short-term, leading to a net reduction of 19.90 to 44.65% in T. pinchaque's potential distribution. Even under such a scenarios, several Protected Areas harbor a portion (~36 to 48%) of the potential distribution defined by the models. However, the central and southern populations are highly threatened by habitat loss and climate change. Based on these results and due to the restricted home range of T. pinchaque, its preference for upland forests and paramos, and its small estimated population size in the Andes, we suggest to maintaining its current status as Critically Endangered in Ecuador. PMID:25798851

  15. Ecological and Geographical Analysis of the Distribution of the Mountain Tapir (Tapirus pinchaque) in Ecuador: Importance of Protected Areas in Future Scenarios of Global Warming

    PubMed Central

    Ortega-Andrade, H. Mauricio; Prieto-Torres, David A.; Gómez-Lora, Ignacio; Lizcano, Diego J.

    2015-01-01

    In Ecuador, Tapirus pinchaque is considered to be critically endangered. Although the species has been registered in several localities, its geographic distribution remains unclear, and the effects of climate change and current land uses on this species are largely unknown. We modeled the ecological niche of T. pinchaque using MaxEnt, in order to assess its potential adaptation to present and future climate change scenarios. We evaluated the effects of habitat loss due by current land use, the ecosystem availability and importance of Ecuadorian System of Protected Areas into the models. The model of environmental suitability estimated an extent of occurrence for species of 21,729 km2 in all of Ecuador, mainly occurring along the corridor of the eastern Ecuadorian Andes. A total of 10 Andean ecosystems encompassed ~98% of the area defined by the model, with herbaceous paramo, northeastern Andean montane evergreen forest and northeastern Andes upper montane evergreen forest being the most representative. When considering the effect of habitat loss, a significant reduction in model area (~17%) occurred, and the effect of climate change represented a net reduction up to 37.86%. However, the synergistic effect of both climate change and habitat loss, given current land use practices, could represent a greater risk in the short-term, leading to a net reduction of 19.90 to 44.65% in T. pinchaque’s potential distribution. Even under such a scenarios, several Protected Areas harbor a portion (~36 to 48%) of the potential distribution defined by the models. However, the central and southern populations are highly threatened by habitat loss and climate change. Based on these results and due to the restricted home range of T. pinchaque, its preference for upland forests and paramos, and its small estimated population size in the Andes, we suggest to maintaining its current status as Critically Endangered in Ecuador. PMID:25798851

  16. Climate change impact and potential adaptation strategies under alternate realizations of climate scenarios for three major crops in Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Donatelli, Marcello; Srivastava, Amit Kumar; Duveiller, Gregory; Niemeyer, Stefan; Fumagalli, Davide

    2015-07-01

    This study presents an estimate of the effects of climate variables and CO2 on three major crops, namely wheat, rapeseed and sunflower, in EU27 Member States. We also investigated some technical adaptation options which could offset climate change impacts. The time-slices 2000, 2020 and 2030 were chosen to represent the baseline and future climate, respectively. Furthermore, two realizations within the A1B emission scenario proposed by the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES), from the ECHAM5 and HadCM3 GCM, were selected. A time series of 30 years for each GCM and time slice were used as input weather data for simulation. The time series were generated with a stochastic weather generator trained over GCM-RCM time series (downscaled simulations from the ENSEMBLES project which were statistically bias-corrected prior to the use of the weather generator). GCM-RCM simulations differed primarily for rainfall patterns across Europe, whereas the temperature increase was similar in the time horizons considered. Simulations based on the model CropSyst v. 3 were used to estimate crop responses; CropSyst was re-implemented in the modelling framework BioMA. The results presented in this paper refer to abstraction of crop growth with respect to its production system, and consider growth as limited by weather and soil water. How crop growth responds to CO2 concentrations; pests, diseases, and nutrients limitations were not accounted for in simulations. The results show primarily that different realization of the emission scenario lead to noticeably different crop performance projections in the same time slice. Simple adaptation techniques such as changing sowing dates and the use of different varieties, the latter in terms of duration of the crop cycle, may be effective in alleviating the adverse effects of climate change in most areas, although response to best adaptation (within the techniques tested) differed across crops. Although a negative impact of climate

  17. Projecting changes in future heavy rainfall events for Oahu, Hawaii: A statistical downscaling approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Norton, Chase W.; Chu, Pao-Shin; Schroeder, Thomas A.

    2011-09-01

    A statistical model based on nonlinear artificial neural networks is used to downscale daily extreme precipitation events in Oahu, Hawaii, from general circulation model (GCM) outputs and projected into the future. From a suite of GCMs and their emission scenarios, two tests recommended by the International Panel on Climate Change are conducted and the ECHAM5 A2 is selected as the most appropriate one for downscaling precipitation extremes for Oahu. The skill of the neural network model is highest in drier, leeward regions where orographic uplifting has less influence on daily extreme precipitation. The trained model is used with the ECHAM5 forced by emissions from the A2 scenario to simulate future daily precipitation on Oahu. A BCa bootstrap resampling method is used to provide 95% confidence intervals of the storm frequency and intensity for all three data sets (actual observations, downscaled GCM output from the present-day climate, and downscaled GCM output for future climate). Results suggest a tendency for increased frequency of heavy rainfall events but a decrease in rainfall intensity during the next 30 years (2011-2040) for the southern shoreline of Oahu.

  18. Resilience to temperature and pH changes in a future climate change scenario in six strains of the polar diatom Fragilariopsis cylindrus

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pančić, M.; Hansen, P. J.; Tammilehto, A.; Lundholm, N.

    2015-03-01

    The effects of ocean acidification and increased temperature on physiology of six strains of the polar diatom Fragilariopsis cylindrus from Greenland were investigated. Experiments were performed under manipulated pH levels (8.0, 7.7, 7.4, and 7.1) and different temperatures (1, 5 and 8 °C) to simulate changes from present to plausible future levels. Each of the 12 scenarios was run for 7 days, and a significant interaction between temperature and pH on growth was detected. By combining increased temperature and acidification, the two factors counterbalanced each other, and therefore no effect on the growth rates was found. However, the growth rates increased with elevated temperatures by ∼20-50% depending on the strain. In addition, a general negative effect of increasing acidification on growth was observed. At pH 7.7 and 7.4, the growth response varied considerably among strains. However, a more uniform response was detected at pH 7.1 with most of the strains exhibiting reduced growth rates by 20-37% compared to pH 8.0. It should be emphasized that a significant interaction between temperature and pH was found, meaning that the combination of the two parameters affected growth differently than when considering one at a time. Based on these results, we anticipate that the polar diatom F. cylindrus will be unaffected by changes in temperature and pH within the range expected by the end of the century. In each simulated scenario, the variation in growth rates among the strains was larger than the variation observed due to the whole range of changes in either pH or temperature. Climate change may therefore not affect the species as such, but may lead to changes in the population structure of the species, with the strains exhibiting high phenotypic plasticity, in terms of temperature and pH tolerance towards future conditions, dominating the population.

  19. Resilience to temperature and pH changes in a future climate change scenario in six strains of the polar diatom Fragilariopsis cylindrus

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pančić, M.; Hansen, P. J.; Tammilehto, A.; Lundholm, N.

    2015-07-01

    The effects of ocean acidification and increased temperature on physiology of six strains of the polar diatom Fragilariopsis cylindrus from Greenland were investigated. Experiments were performed under manipulated pH levels (8.0, 7.7, 7.4, and 7.1) and different temperatures (1, 5, and 8 °C) to simulate changes from present to plausible future levels. Each of the 12 scenarios was run for 7 days, and a significant interaction between temperature and pH on growth was detected. By combining increased temperature and acidification, the two factors counterbalanced each other, and therefore no effect on the growth rates was found. However, the growth rates increased with elevated temperatures by ~ 20-50 % depending on the strain. In addition, a general negative effect of increasing acidification on growth was observed. At pH 7.7 and 7.4, the growth response varied considerably among strains. However, a more uniform response was detected at pH 7.1 with most of the strains exhibiting reduced growth rates by 20-37 % compared to pH 8.0. It should be emphasized that a significant interaction between temperature and pH was found, meaning that the combination of the two parameters affected growth differently than when considering one at a time. Based on these results, we anticipate that the polar diatom F. cylindrus will be unaffected by changes in temperature and pH within the range expected by the end of the century. In each simulated scenario, the variation in growth rates among the strains was larger than the variation observed due to the whole range of changes in either pH or temperature. Climate change may therefore not affect the species as such, but may lead to changes in the population structure of the species, with the strains exhibiting high phenotypic plasticity, in terms of temperature and pH tolerance towards future conditions, dominating the population.

  20. Global Crop Yield Reductions due to Surface Ozone Exposure: Crop Production Losses and Economic Damage in 2000 and 2030 under Two Future Scenarios of O3 Pollution

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Avnery, S.; Mauzerall, D. L.; Liu, J.; Horowitz, L. W.

    2011-12-01

    production in 2030 due to the need to feed a growing population, our calculations of crop production and economic losses are conservative. Our results suggest that O3 pollution poses a growing threat to global food security even under an optimistic scenario of future ozone precursor emissions. Further efforts to reduce surface O3 concentrations and adapt crops to elevated O3 thus provide an excellent opportunity to increase global grain yields without the environmental degradation associated with additional fertilizer application or land cultivation.

  1. Assessing future scenarios for health care waste management using a multi-criteria decision analysis tool: A case study in the Turkish West Black Sea Region.

    PubMed

    Ciplak, Nesli

    2015-08-01

    The aim of this paper is to identify the best possible health care waste management option in the West Black Sea Region by taking into account economic, social, environmental, and technical aspects in the concept of multi-criteria decision analysis. In the scope of this research, three different health care waste management scenarios that consist of different technology alternatives were developed and compared using a decision-making computer software, called Right Choice, by identifying various criteria, measuring them, and ranking their relative importance from the point of key stakeholders. The results of the study show that the decentralized autoclave technology option coupled with the disposal through land-filling with energy recovery has potential to be an optimum option for health care waste management system, and an efficient health care waste segregation scheme should be given more attention by the authorities in the region. Furthermore, the discussion of the results points out multidisciplinary approach and the equilibrium between social, environmental, economic, and technical criteria. The methodology used in this research was developed in order to enable the decision makers to gain an increased perception of a decision problem. In general, the results and remarks of this study can be used as a basis of future planning and anticipation of needs for investment in the area of health care waste management in the region and also in developing countries that are dealing with the similar waste management problems.

  2. Assessing future scenarios for health care waste management using a multi-criteria decision analysis tool: A case study in the Turkish West Black Sea Region.

    PubMed

    Ciplak, Nesli

    2015-08-01

    The aim of this paper is to identify the best possible health care waste management option in the West Black Sea Region by taking into account economic, social, environmental, and technical aspects in the concept of multi-criteria decision analysis. In the scope of this research, three different health care waste management scenarios that consist of different technology alternatives were developed and compared using a decision-making computer software, called Right Choice, by identifying various criteria, measuring them, and ranking their relative importance from the point of key stakeholders. The results of the study show that the decentralized autoclave technology option coupled with the disposal through land-filling with energy recovery has potential to be an optimum option for health care waste management system, and an efficient health care waste segregation scheme should be given more attention by the authorities in the region. Furthermore, the discussion of the results points out multidisciplinary approach and the equilibrium between social, environmental, economic, and technical criteria. The methodology used in this research was developed in order to enable the decision makers to gain an increased perception of a decision problem. In general, the results and remarks of this study can be used as a basis of future planning and anticipation of needs for investment in the area of health care waste management in the region and also in developing countries that are dealing with the similar waste management problems. PMID:26211633

  3. A Fully Coupled GCM Study of a "Geoengineered World"

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lunt, D. J.; Ridgwell, A.; Valdes, P. J.

    2007-12-01

    Several schemes have been proposed with the explicit aim of modifying the future climate of the planet as a mitigation strategy in a response to anthropogenic global warming. A selection of these, including the placing of mirrors at the Lagrange point between the Earth and the Sun, and the injection of aerosols into the stratosphere, have at their heart the goal of effectively reducing the incoming solar radiation near the top of the atmosphere, to "balance" increased surface warming due to increased greenhouse gas concentrations. However, it is likely that an exact balance of the radiative forcing would be very difficult to obtain, due to differing spatial characteristics of the solar forcing applied (greatest at the equator and least at the poles) and that of long wave absorption (more equal over all latitudes), as well as differing temporal characteristics of the radiative forcings. In this study, we model the different climate expected in a "Geoengineered World", compared to the "Preindustrial World", if both have the same global annual mean surface temperature. We use the UK Met Office GCM, HadCM3L, and carry out 5 simulations: Pre-industrial, Doubled CO2, Quadrupled CO2, and 2 simulations in which the increased CO2 is balanced in the global annual mean by a reduction in incoming solar radiation. The "strength" of mirror/aerosol required is calculated using an iterative procedure, until balance is obtained. Our results indicate significant differences between the Geoengineered World and the Preindustrial World, despite near identical global annual mean surface temperatures. In particular, we obtain relatively large differences in surface temperature over mid-latitude continental regions, in particular North America, and significant changes in upwelling on the West African tropical coast. The drying of the American Mid-West, and impacts on Africa fisheries, are likely to have significant consequences for global and local food production.

  4. Multi-model GCM ensemble simulations of idealized tropical cyclones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reed, K. A.; Jablonowski, C.; Ullrich, P. A.; Kent, J.; Lauritzen, P. H.; Taylor, M.; Nair, R.

    2013-12-01

    As General Circulation Models (GCMs) are now capable of running operationally at higher horizontal resolutions than ever before, such models have become a tool of choice for the evaluation of tropical cyclones in current and future climate conditions. GCM horizontal resolutions in the range between 10-50 km are now computationally achievable for seasonal or multi-year simulations and there is growing confidence that high-resolution global models provide reliable representations of many characteristics of tropical storms. However, model design choices are an important source of uncertainty. This is widely documented for physical parameterization suites, but it is less recognized for the dynamical component of models and the physics-dynamics coupling. The study offers a first look into these structural uncertainties. This study focuses on dynamical core model intercomparisons. In particular, it looks at the results of the Dynamical Core Model Intercomparison Project (DCMIP) that took place at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in August 2012. The analysis is focused on the evaluation of an idealized tropical storm and uncertainties triggered by the choice of model dynamical core formulation in various global models. These models include the four dynamical cores available in NCAR's Community Atmosphere Model (Finite-Volume (FV), Spectral-Element (SE) and the Eulerian and semi-Lagrangian spectral transform dynamical cores), the NOAA model FIM, the model ICON (Max-Planck Institute and German Weather Service), GFDL's FV3 model on the cubed-sphere grid, ECMWF's Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) and the model PUMA from the University of Hamburg.

  5. A Regional-Scale Evaluation on Environmental Stability Conditions for Convective Rain under Climate Change from Super-High-Resolution GCM Simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Takemi, T.; Nomura, S.; Oku, Y.; Ishikawa, H.

    2011-12-01

    Understanding and forecasting of convective rain due to intense thunderstorms, which develop under conditions both with and without significant synoptic-scale and/or mesoscale forcings, are critical in dealing with disaster prevention/mitigation and developing urban planning appropriate for disaster management. Thunderstorms rapidly develop even during the daytimes of fair weather conditions without any external forcings, and sometimes become strong enough to induce local-scale meteorological disasters such as torrential rain, flush flooding, high winds, and tornadoes/gusts. With the growing interests in climate change, future changes in the behavior of such convectively generated extreme events have gained scientific and societal interests. This study conducted the regional-scale evaluations on the environmental stability conditions for convective rain that develops under synoptically undisturbed, summertime conditions by using the outputs of super-high-resolution AGCM simulations, at a 20-km resolution, for the present, the near-future, and the future climates under global warming with IPCC A1B emission scenario. The GCM, MRI-AGCM3.2S, was developed by Meteorological Research Institute of Japan Meteorological Agency under the KAKUSHIN program funded by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science, and Technology of Japan. The climate simulation outputs that were used in this study corresponded to three 25-year periods: 1980-2004 for the present climate; 2020-2044 for the near-future climate; and 2075-2099 for the future climate. The Kanto Plain that includes the Tokyo metropolitan area was chosen as the study area, since the Tokyo metropolitan area is one of the largest metropolises in the world and is vulnerable to extreme weather events. Therefore, one of the purposes of this study was to examine how regional-scale evaluations are performed from the super-high-resolution GCM outputs. After verifying the usefulness of the GCM present-climate outputs with

  6. Mars methane emission and transport scenarios using the GEM-Mars GCM

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Neary, Lori; Daerden, Frank; Kaminski, J. W.; McConnell, J. C.

    2010-05-01

    The observation of methane (Formisano et al., 2004; Krasnopolsky et al., 2004; Mumma et al., 2009) in the Martian atmosphere has raised questions about its source and origin as well as its chemical behaviour. The photochemical lifetime of methane is on the order of several hundred years which would give a well-mixed, uniform distribution but measurements suggest locally enhanced "plumes". The GEM-Mars three-dimensional global chemistry-climate model is used to investigate the possible emission rates and lifetime of methane. The model simulations have a horizontal resolution of 4x4 degrees with 101 vertical levels up to approximately 140 km. References Formisano, V., S. Atreya, T. Encrenaz, N. Ignatiev, and M. Giuranna (2004), Detection of Methane in the Atmosphere of Mars, Science 306, 1758 (2004). Krasnopolsky, V. A., J. P. Maillard, and T. C. Owen (2004), Icarus 172, 537. Mumma, M.J., G.L. Villanueva, R.E. Novak, T. Hewagama, B.P. Bonev, M.A. DiSanti, A.M. Mandell, and M.D. Smith (2009), Strong Release of Methane on Mars in Northern Summer 2003. Science, 2009. 323: p. 1041-1045.

  7. Forest ecosystems and the changing patterns of nitrogen input and acid deposition today and in the future based on a scenario.

    PubMed

    Busch, G; Lammel, G; Beese, F O; Feichter, J; Dentener, F J; Roelofs, G J

    2001-01-01

    A global assessment of the impact of the anthropogenic perturbation of the nitrogen and sulfur cycles on forest ecosystems is carried out for both the present-day [1980-1990] and for a projection into the future [2040-2050] under a scenario of economic development which represents a medium path of development according to expert guess [IPCC IS92a]. Results show that forest soils will receive considerably increasing loads of nitrogen and acid deposition and that deposition patterns are likely to change. The regions which are most prone to depletion of soils buffering capacity and supercritical nitrogen deposition are identified in the subtropical and tropical regions of South America and Southeast Asia apart from the well known 'hotspots' North-Eastern America and Central Europe. The forest areas likely to meet these two risks are still a minor fraction of the global forest ecosystems, though. But the bias between eutrophication and acidification will become greater and an enhanced growth triggered by the fertilizing effects of increasing nitrogen input cannot be balanced by the forest soils nutrient pools. Results show increasing loads into forest ecosystems which are likely to account for 46% higher acid loads and 36% higher nitrogen loads in relation to the 1980-1990 situation. Global background deposition of up to 5 kg N ha-1 a-1 will be exceeded at more than 25% of global forest ecosystems and at more than 50% of forest ecosystems on acid sensitive soils. More than 33% of forest ecosystems on acid sensitive soils will receive acid loads which exceeds their buffering capacity. About 25% of forest areas with exceeded acid loads will receive critical nitrogen loads.

  8. Comparison of the AVI, modified SINTACS and GALDIT vulnerability methods under future climate-change scenarios for a shallow low-lying coastal aquifer in southern Finland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Luoma, Samrit; Okkonen, Jarkko; Korkka-Niemi, Kirsti

    2016-09-01

    A shallow unconfined low-lying coastal aquifer in southern Finland surrounded by the Baltic Sea is vulnerable to changes in groundwater recharge, sea-level rise and human activities. Assessment of the intrinsic vulnerability of groundwater under climate scenarios was performed for the aquifer area by utilising the results of a published study on the impacts of climate change on groundwater recharge and sea-level rise on groundwater-seawater interaction. Three intrinsic vulnerability mapping methods, the aquifer vulnerability index (AVI), a modified SINTACS and GALDIT, were applied and compared. According to the results, the degree of groundwater vulnerability is greatly impacted by seasonal variations in groundwater recharge during the year, and also varies depending on the climate-change variability in the long term. The groundwater is potentially highly vulnerable to contamination from sources on the ground surface during high groundwater recharge rates after snowmelt, while a high vulnerability to seawater intrusion could exist when there is a low groundwater recharge rate in dry season. The AVI results suggest that a change in the sea level will have an insignificant impact on groundwater vulnerability compared with the results from the modified SINTACS and GALDIT. The modified SINTACS method could be used as a guideline for the groundwater vulnerability assessment of glacial and deglacial deposits in inland aquifers, and in combination with GALDIT, it could provide a useful tool for assessing groundwater vulnerability to both contamination from sources on the ground surface and to seawater intrusion for shallow unconfined low-lying coastal aquifers under future climate-change conditions.

  9. Current and Future Distribution of the Tropical Tree Cedrela odorata L. in Mexico under Climate Change Scenarios Using MaxLike

    PubMed Central

    Martínez Meyer, Enrique; Sánchez-Velásquez, Lázaro R.

    2016-01-01

    Climate change is recognized as an important threat to global biodiversity because it increases the risk of extinction of many species on the planet. Mexico is a megadiverse country and native tree species such as red cedar (Cedrela odorata) can be used to maintain forests while helping mitigate climate change, because it is considered a fast growing pioneer species with great economic potential in the forestry industry. In order to assess possible shifts in areas suitable for C. odorata plantations in Mexico with ecological niche models, we used the MaxLike algorithm, climate variables, the geo-referenced records of this species, three general circulation models and three scenarios of future emissions. Results show a current potential distribution of 573,079 km2 with an average probability of occurrence of 0.93 (± 0.13). The potential distribution area could increase up to 650,356 km2 by 2060 according to the general circulation model HADCM3 B2, with an average probability of occurrence of 0.86 (± 0.14). Finally, we delimited an area of 35,377 km2 that has a high potential for the establishment of C. odorata plantations, by selecting those sites with optimal conditions for its growth that are outside protected areas and are currently devoid of trees. C. odorata has a significant potential to help in the mitigation of the effects of climate change. Using MaxLike we identified extense areas in Mexico suitable to increase carbon sequestration through plantations of this highly valued native tree species. PMID:27732622

  10. The effect of global warming scenarios on soybean and peanut yields in the Coastal Plain region of Georgia

    SciTech Connect

    Laitta, M.T.; Huebner, N.J.

    1996-09-01

    This study is an evaluation of peanut and soybean yield in the Coastal Plain of Georgia as a function of seasonal water deficit scenarios. An analytical model of the Thornthwaite water balance model, based on historical temperature and precipitation data, is used to evaluate the probable response of crop productivity to climate changes in selected counties in South Georgia. The input of temperature and precipitation values for each site is based on the results of three general circulation models (GCM), which were regionally tailored to the Southeastern United States. A regression analysis was preformed to establish a numerical relationship between historical yield and moisture deficits. This model, in association with projected GCM model deficits, was used to predict future crop yields. Our results showed that given all GCM models evaluated, deficit periods for the selected sites will increase both the intensity and duration droughts in the southeastern U.S. Of the two crops analyzed, it was found that soybeans showed a higher sensitivity to moisture deficits than did peanuts.

  11. Regional climate modeling of heat stress, frost, and water stress events in the agricultural region of Southwest Western Australia under the current climate and future climate scenarios.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kala, Jatin; Lyons, Tom J.; Abbs, Deborah J.; Foster, Ian J.

    2010-05-01

    Heat stress, frost, and water stress events have significant impacts on grain quality and production within the agricultural region (wheat-belt) of Southwest Western Australia (SWWA) (Cramb, 2000) and understanding how the frequency and intensity of these events will change in the future is crucial for management purposes. Hence, the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (Pielke et al, 1992) (RAMS Version 6.0) is used to simulate the past 10 years of the climate of SWWA at a 20 km grid resolution by down-scaling the 6-hourly 1.0 by 1.0 degree National Center for Environmental Prediction Final Analyses from December 1999 to Present. Daily minimum and maximum temperatures, as well as daily rainfall are validated against observations. Simulations of future climate are carried out by down-scaling the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) Mark 3.5 General Circulation Model (Gordon et al, 2002) for 10 years (2046-2055) under the SRES A2 scenario using the Cubic Conformal Atmospheric Model (CCAM) (McGregor and Dix, 2008). The 6-hourly CCAM output is then downscaled to a 20 km resolution using RAMS. Changes in extreme events are discussed within the context of the continued viability of agriculture in SWWA. Cramb, J. (2000) Climate in relation to agriculture in south-western Australia. In: The Wheat Book (Eds W. K. Anderson and J. R. Garlinge). Bulletin 4443. Department of Agriculture, Western Australia. Gordon, H. B., Rotstayn, L. D., McGregor, J. L., Dix, M. R., Kowalczyk, E. A., O'Farrell, S. P., Waterman, L. J., Hirst, A. C., Wilson, S. G., Collier, M. A., Watterson, I. G., and Elliott, T. I. (2002). The CSIRO Mk3 Climate System Model [Electronic publication]. Aspendale: CSIRO Atmospheric Research. (CSIRO Atmospheric Research technical paper; no. 60). 130 p McGregor, J. L., and Dix, M. R., (2008) An updated description of the conformal-cubic atmospheric model. High Resolution Simulation of the Atmosphere and Ocean, Hamilton, K. and Ohfuchi

  12. Simulation of Venus Atmosphere Dynamics With an Earth Climate GCM

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Parish, H. F.; Schubert, G.; Covey, C. C.; Grossman, A.

    2008-12-01

    We describe the results of initial simulations of the Venusian atmosphere, using the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM). The CAM model is a descendant of the NCAR Community Climate Model, and is defined as one of two "high-end" models designated by the US Climate Change Science Program for basic research. It may also be the most widely used 3D climate model in the US. CAM has grown substantially in complexity and Earth-specificity since the original version was released in 1983, and many of these Earth based physics parameterizations need to be adjusted to simulate the Venus atmosphere. Other groups are adapting CAM to simulate the atmospheres of Mars and Titan, thereby promising CAM simulation for all four terrestrial planets known to have substantial atmospheres. Studying these worlds together will provide calibration of Earth-centric studies of climate changes like global warming. It will also provide context for future searches for Earth-like planets orbiting other stars. In this work we will focus on Venus. The Venus atmosphere represents an extreme environment, strongly influenced by the greenhouse effect, and studying the Venus atmosphere may therefore be relevant to the possible future direction of the Earth's climate. The dynamical processes which occur in the Venusian atmosphere are not well understood, including the cause of the strong superrotation of the atmosphere, in which the planetary surface rotates with a period of around 243 days, but the atmosphere near the cloud tops has a rotational period of only around 4 days. We show the results of initial simulations of the dynamics of the Venus atmosphere, using a version of the CAM model with most of the Earth related processes, such as the cloud physics, removed. A simplified form of heating has been applied, similar to the thermal forcing approach used recently by other authors. We investigate the sensitivity of the model results to changes in the physics parameterizations we have used, including

  13. Develop Plan for Analysis of the Effluent from GCM Production.

    SciTech Connect

    Nenoff, Tina M.; Mowry, Curtis D.

    2015-08-24

    This milestone is focused on developing a plan for the analysis of the effluent from the Sandia low temperature sintering Bi-Si-Zn oxide glass composite material (GCM) waste form for the long term storage of iodine and its capture materials.

  14. Mitigation of Coral Reef Warming Across the Central Pacific by the Equatorial Undercurrent: A Past and Future Divide

    PubMed Central

    Karnauskas, Kristopher B.; Cohen, Anne L.; Gove, Jamison M.

    2016-01-01

    Global climate models (GCMs) predict enhanced warming and nutrient decline across the central tropical Pacific as trade winds weaken with global warming. Concurrent changes in circulation, however, have potential to mitigate these effects for equatorial islands. The implications for densely populated island nations, whose livelihoods depend on ecosystem services, are significant. A unique suite of in situ measurements coupled with state-of-the-art GCM simulations enables us to quantify the mitigation potential of the projected circulation change for three coral reef ecosystems under two future scenarios. Estimated historical trends indicate that over 100% of the large-scale warming to date has been offset locally by changes in circulation, while future simulations predict a warming mitigation effect of only 5–10% depending on the island. The pace and extent to which GCM projections overwhelm historical trends will play a key role in defining the fate of marine ecosystems and island communities across the tropical Pacific. PMID:26880042

  15. Mitigation of Coral Reef Warming Across the Central Pacific by the Equatorial Undercurrent: A Past and Future Divide

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Karnauskas, Kristopher B.; Cohen, Anne L.; Gove, Jamison M.

    2016-02-01

    Global climate models (GCMs) predict enhanced warming and nutrient decline across the central tropical Pacific as trade winds weaken with global warming. Concurrent changes in circulation, however, have potential to mitigate these effects for equatorial islands. The implications for densely populated island nations, whose livelihoods depend on ecosystem services, are significant. A unique suite of in situ measurements coupled with state-of-the-art GCM simulations enables us to quantify the mitigation potential of the projected circulation change for three coral reef ecosystems under two future scenarios. Estimated historical trends indicate that over 100% of the large-scale warming to date has been offset locally by changes in circulation, while future simulations predict a warming mitigation effect of only 5–10% depending on the island. The pace and extent to which GCM projections overwhelm historical trends will play a key role in defining the fate of marine ecosystems and island communities across the tropical Pacific.

  16. Mitigation of Coral Reef Warming Across the Central Pacific by the Equatorial Undercurrent: A Past and Future Divide.

    PubMed

    Karnauskas, Kristopher B; Cohen, Anne L; Gove, Jamison M

    2016-01-01

    Global climate models (GCMs) predict enhanced warming and nutrient decline across the central tropical Pacific as trade winds weaken with global warming. Concurrent changes in circulation, however, have potential to mitigate these effects for equatorial islands. The implications for densely populated island nations, whose livelihoods depend on ecosystem services, are significant. A unique suite of in situ measurements coupled with state-of-the-art GCM simulations enables us to quantify the mitigation potential of the projected circulation change for three coral reef ecosystems under two future scenarios. Estimated historical trends indicate that over 100% of the large-scale warming to date has been offset locally by changes in circulation, while future simulations predict a warming mitigation effect of only 5-10% depending on the island. The pace and extent to which GCM projections overwhelm historical trends will play a key role in defining the fate of marine ecosystems and island communities across the tropical Pacific. PMID:26880042

  17. Comparison of a very-fine-resolution GCM with RCM dynamical downscaling in simulating climate in China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guo, Donglin; Wang, Huijun

    2016-05-01

    Regional climate simulation can generally be improved by using an RCM nested within a coarser-resolution GCM. However, whether or not it can also be improved by the direct use of a state-of-the-art GCM with very fine resolution, close to that of an RCM, and, if so, which is the better approach, are open questions. These questions are important for understanding and using these two kinds of simulation approaches, but have not yet been investigated. Accordingly, the present reported work compared simulation results over China from a very-fine-resolution GCM (VFRGCM) and from RCM dynamical downscaling. The results showed that: (1) The VFRGCM reproduces the climatologies and trends of both air temperature and precipitation, as well as inter-monthly variations of air temperature in terms of spatial pattern and amount, closer to observations than the coarse-resolution version of the GCM. This is not the case, however, for the inter-monthly variations of precipitation. (2) The VFRGCM captures the climatology, trend, and inter-monthly variation of air temperature, as well as the trend in precipitation, more reasonably than the RCM dynamical downscaling method. (3) The RCM dynamical downscaling method performs better than the VFRGCM in terms of the climatology and inter-monthly variation of precipitation. Overall, the results suggest that VFRGCMs possess great potential with regard to their application in climate simulation in the future, and the RCM dynamical downscaling method is still dominant in terms of regional precipitation simulation.

  18. Downscaling socio-economic prospective scenarios with a participatory approach for assessing the possible impacts of future land use and cover changes on the vulnerability of societies to mountain risks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grémont, Marine; Houet, Thomas

    2015-04-01

    Due to the peculiarities of their landscapes and topography, mountain areas bring together a large range of socio-economic activities whose sustainability is likely to be jeopardised by projected global changes. Disturbance of hydro-meteorological processes will alter slope stability and affect mountain hazards occurrence. Meanwhile, socio-economic transformations will influence land use and cover changes (LUCC), which in turn will affect both hazards occurrence and hazards consequences on buildings, infrastructures and societies. Already faced with recurrent natural hazards, mountain areas will have to cope with increasing natural risks in the future. Better understanding the pathways through which future socio-economic changes might influence LUCC at local scale is thus a crucial step to assess accurately the vulnerability and adaptive capacity of societies to mountain risks in a global change context. Scientists face two main issues in assessing spatially explicit impacts of socio-economic scenarios in mountainous landscapes. First, modelling LUCC at local scale still faces many challenges related to past (observed) LUCC and those to consider in the future in terms of dynamics and processes. Second, downscaling global socio-economic scenarios so that they provide useful input for local LUCC models requires a thorough analysis of local social dynamics and economic drivers at stake, which falls short with current practices. Numerous socio-economic prospective scenarios have recently been developed at regional, national and international scales. They mostly rely on literature reviews and expert workshops carried out through global sectoral analysis (e.g. agriculture, forestry or industry) but only few of these exercises attempt to decline global scenarios at smaller scales confronting global vision with information gathered from the field and stakeholders. Yet, vulnerability assessments are more useful when undertaken at local scales that are relevant to

  19. Spatial precision vs large scale uncertainties in climate change scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dubrovsky, M.; Potuznikova, K.

    2009-04-01

    In assessing climate change impacts on various weather dependent processes, weather series representing changed climate are required as an input to the impact models (for example crop growth models). In producing these series, the weather generator (WG) is often employed: WG parameters are derived from the observed series and then modified using the climate change scenario, which defines changes in the relevant climatic characteristics. These scenarios use to be derived either from GCM or RCM simulations. An advantage of using RCMs (with respect to using GCMs) consists in higher spatial resolution of simulated processes and thereby in higher spatial precision of RCM-based climate change scenario. On the other hand, advantage of using GCM-based scenarios consists in larger number of available GCM simulations, which allows to better account for the uncertainty in larger-scale patterns of climate change. This contribution aims to contribute to the discussion on the usefulness of RCMs in developing the climate change scenarios. To show the significancy of high resolution RCM based spatial signal in changes in relevant climatic characteristics, this signal will be compared with the uncertainty in GCM-simulated larger scale patterns of change. The former RCM-based signal will be derived from the RCM simulations made for the PRUDENCE project, the latter GCM based uncertainty will be based on simulations from a larger number of GCMs. The results will be shown in terms of maps for a whole Europe. Acknowledgements: The study is supported by 6th FP EU research project CECILIA (no GOCE 037005) and GAAV grant agency (project IAA300420806 - "PRASCE").

  20. Energetics, structure and life-cycle of GCM simulated tropical cyclones and their response to global warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhao, Ming; Lin, Yanluan

    2014-05-01

    energetics of individual storms and their statistics are analyzed in a way that facilitates the comparison with existing theories, satellite observations, and high resolution simulations of individual storms. Through this effort, we hope to be able to bring closer the traditional TC and GCM research communities for future studies of the TC-climate problem. To this end, it would be valuable to make the GCM simulated TC data publicly available for the broad TC research community to foster collaborative research. We will discuss GCM simulated responses in TC destructive power (winds, size, and precipitation) owing to global warming.

  1. Coupled fvGCM-GCE Modeling System, 3D Cloud-Resolving Model and Cloud Library

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tao, Wei-Kuo

    2005-01-01

    Recent GEWEX Cloud System Study (GCSS) model comparison projects have indicated that cloud- resolving models (CRMs) agree with observations better than traditional single-column models in simulating various types of clouds and cloud systems from different geographic locations. Current and future NASA satellite programs can provide cloud, precipitation, aerosol and other data at very fine spatial and temporal scales. It requires a coupled global circulation model (GCM) and cloud-scale model (termed a super-parameterization or multi-scale modeling framework, MMF) to use these satellite data to improve the understanding of the p