Representative Agricultural Pathways and Scenarios for Regional Integrated Assessment of Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability, and Adaptation. 5; Chapter

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Valdivia, Roberto O.; Antle, John M.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Ruane, Alexander C.; Vervoort, Joost; Ashfaq, Muhammad; Hathie, Ibrahima; Tui, Sabine Homann-Kee; Mulwa, Richard; Nhemachena, Charles;

Global Health in the Anthropocene: Moving Beyond Resilience and Capitalism

PubMed Central

van de Pas, Remco

2017-01-01

There has been much reflection on the need for a new understanding of global health and the urgency of a paradigm shift to address global health issues. A crucial question is whether this is still possible in current modes of global governance based on capitalist values. Four reflections are provided. (1) Ecological –centered values must become central in any future global health framework. (2) The objectives of ‘sustainability’ and ‘economic growth’ present a profound contradiction. (3) The resilience discourse maintains a gridlock in the functioning of the global health system. (4) The legitimacy of multi-stakeholder governance arrangements in global health requires urgent attention. A dual track approach is suggested. It must be aimed to transform capitalism into something better for global health while in parallel there is an urgent need to imagine a future and pathways to a different world order rooted in the principles of social justice, protecting the commons and a central role for the preservation of ecology. PMID:28812849

Future air pollution in the Shared Socio-economic Pathways

DOE PAGES

Rao, Shilpa; Klimont, Zbigniew; Smith, Steven J.; ...

2016-07-15

Emissions of air pollutants such as sulfur and nitrogen oxides and particulates have significant health impacts as well as effects on natural and anthropogenic ecosystems. These same emissions also can change atmospheric chemistry and the planetary energy balance, thereby impacting global and regional climate. Long-term scenarios for air pollutant emissions are needed as inputs to global climate and chemistry models, and for analysis linking air pollutant impacts across sectors. In this paper we present methodology and results for air pollutant emissions in Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios. We first present a set of three air pollution narratives that describe high,more » central, and low pollution control ambitions over the 21 st century. These narratives are then translated into quantitative guidance for use in integrated assessment models. We provide an overview of pollutant emission trajectories under the SSP scenarios. Pollutant emissions in these scenarios cover a wider range than the scenarios used in previous international climate model comparisons. Furthermore, the SSP scenarios provide the opportunity to access a more comprehensive range of future global and regional air quality outcomes.« less

Future air pollution in the Shared Socio-economic Pathways

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rao, Shilpa; Klimont, Zbigniew; Smith, Steven J.

Emissions of air pollutants such as sulfur and nitrogen oxides and particulates have significant health impacts as well as effects on natural and anthropogenic ecosystems. These same emissions also can change atmospheric chemistry and the planetary energy balance, thereby impacting global and regional climate. Long-term scenarios for air pollutant emissions are needed as inputs to global climate and chemistry models, and for analysis linking air pollutant impacts across sectors. In this paper we present methodology and results for air pollutant emissions in Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios. We first present a set of three air pollution narratives that describe high,more » central, and low pollution control ambitions over the 21 st century. These narratives are then translated into quantitative guidance for use in integrated assessment models. We provide an overview of pollutant emission trajectories under the SSP scenarios. Pollutant emissions in these scenarios cover a wider range than the scenarios used in previous international climate model comparisons. Furthermore, the SSP scenarios provide the opportunity to access a more comprehensive range of future global and regional air quality outcomes.« less

Carbon residence time dominates uncertainty in terrestrial vegetation responses to future climate and atmospheric CO2.

PubMed

Friend, Andrew D; Lucht, Wolfgang; Rademacher, Tim T; Keribin, Rozenn; Betts, Richard; Cadule, Patricia; Ciais, Philippe; Clark, Douglas B; Dankers, Rutger; Falloon, Pete D; Ito, Akihiko; Kahana, Ron; Kleidon, Axel; Lomas, Mark R; Nishina, Kazuya; Ostberg, Sebastian; Pavlick, Ryan; Peylin, Philippe; Schaphoff, Sibyll; Vuichard, Nicolas; Warszawski, Lila; Wiltshire, Andy; Woodward, F Ian

2014-03-04

Future climate change and increasing atmospheric CO2 are expected to cause major changes in vegetation structure and function over large fractions of the global land surface. Seven global vegetation models are used to analyze possible responses to future climate simulated by a range of general circulation models run under all four representative concentration pathway scenarios of changing concentrations of greenhouse gases. All 110 simulations predict an increase in global vegetation carbon to 2100, but with substantial variation between vegetation models. For example, at 4 °C of global land surface warming (510-758 ppm of CO2), vegetation carbon increases by 52-477 Pg C (224 Pg C mean), mainly due to CO2 fertilization of photosynthesis. Simulations agree on large regional increases across much of the boreal forest, western Amazonia, central Africa, western China, and southeast Asia, with reductions across southwestern North America, central South America, southern Mediterranean areas, southwestern Africa, and southwestern Australia. Four vegetation models display discontinuities across 4 °C of warming, indicating global thresholds in the balance of positive and negative influences on productivity and biomass. In contrast to previous global vegetation model studies, we emphasize the importance of uncertainties in projected changes in carbon residence times. We find, when all seven models are considered for one representative concentration pathway × general circulation model combination, such uncertainties explain 30% more variation in modeled vegetation carbon change than responses of net primary productivity alone, increasing to 151% for non-HYBRID4 models. A change in research priorities away from production and toward structural dynamics and demographic processes is recommended.

Carbon residence time dominates uncertainty in terrestrial vegetation responses to future climate and atmospheric CO2

PubMed Central

Friend, Andrew D.; Lucht, Wolfgang; Rademacher, Tim T.; Keribin, Rozenn; Betts, Richard; Cadule, Patricia; Ciais, Philippe; Clark, Douglas B.; Dankers, Rutger; Falloon, Pete D.; Ito, Akihiko; Kahana, Ron; Kleidon, Axel; Lomas, Mark R.; Nishina, Kazuya; Ostberg, Sebastian; Pavlick, Ryan; Peylin, Philippe; Schaphoff, Sibyll; Vuichard, Nicolas; Warszawski, Lila; Wiltshire, Andy; Woodward, F. Ian

2014-01-01

Future climate change and increasing atmospheric CO2 are expected to cause major changes in vegetation structure and function over large fractions of the global land surface. Seven global vegetation models are used to analyze possible responses to future climate simulated by a range of general circulation models run under all four representative concentration pathway scenarios of changing concentrations of greenhouse gases. All 110 simulations predict an increase in global vegetation carbon to 2100, but with substantial variation between vegetation models. For example, at 4 °C of global land surface warming (510–758 ppm of CO2), vegetation carbon increases by 52–477 Pg C (224 Pg C mean), mainly due to CO2 fertilization of photosynthesis. Simulations agree on large regional increases across much of the boreal forest, western Amazonia, central Africa, western China, and southeast Asia, with reductions across southwestern North America, central South America, southern Mediterranean areas, southwestern Africa, and southwestern Australia. Four vegetation models display discontinuities across 4 °C of warming, indicating global thresholds in the balance of positive and negative influences on productivity and biomass. In contrast to previous global vegetation model studies, we emphasize the importance of uncertainties in projected changes in carbon residence times. We find, when all seven models are considered for one representative concentration pathway × general circulation model combination, such uncertainties explain 30% more variation in modeled vegetation carbon change than responses of net primary productivity alone, increasing to 151% for non-HYBRID4 models. A change in research priorities away from production and toward structural dynamics and demographic processes is recommended. PMID:24344265

A Flexible Socioeconomic Scenarios Framework for the Study of Plausible Arctic Futures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reissell, A. K.; Peters, G. P.; Riahi, K.; Kroglund, M.; Lovecraft, A. L.; Nilsson, A. E.; Preston, B. L.; van Ruijven, B. J.

2016-12-01

Future developments of the Arctic region are associated with different drivers of change - climate, environmental, and socio-economic - and their interactions, and are highly uncertain. The uncertainty poses challenges for decision-making, calling for development of new analytical frameworks. Scenarios - coherent narratives describing potential futures, pathways to futures, and drivers of change along the way - can be used to explore the consequences of the key uncertainties, particularly in the long-term. In a participatory scenarios workshop, we used both top-down and bottom-up approaches for the development of a flexible socioeconomic scenarios framework. The top-down approach was linked to the global Integrated Assessment Modeling framework and its Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs), developing an Arctic extension of the set of five storylines on the main socioeconomic uncertainties in global climate change research. The bottom-up approach included participatory development of narratives originating from within the Arctic region. For extension of global SSPs to the regional level, we compared the key elements in the global SSPs (Population, Human Development, Economy & Lifestyle, Policies & Institutions, Technology, and Environment & Natural Resources) and key elements in the Arctic. Additional key elements for the Arctic scenarios include, for example, seasonal migration, the large role of traditional knowledge and culture, mixed economy, nested governance structure, human and environmental security, quality of infrastructure. The bottom-up derived results suggested that the scenarios developed independent of the SSPs could be mapped back to the SSPs to demonstrate consistency with respect to representing similar boundary conditions. The two approaches are complimentary, as the top-down approach can be used to set the global socio-economic and climate boundary conditions, and the bottom-up approach providing the regional context. One key uncertainty and driving force is the demand for resources (global or regional) that was mapped against the role of governance as well as adaptive and transformative capacity among actors within the Arctic. Resources demand has significant influence on the society, culture, economy and environment of the Arctic.

History and future of the scientific consensus on anthropogenic global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reusswig, Fritz

2013-09-01

The article by Cook et al offers an interesting new methodological approach to the debate about (supposedly lacking) scientific consensus on global warming, showing that contrarian claims that there was no such consensus are clearly misleading. But once the attribution issue can be regarded as settled, new questions and controversies arise. They ultimately result from the different technological and organizational pathways towards a new global society model that takes its adverse climate change effects into account and seeks for new, but also risky solutions.

Modeling global yield growth of major crops under multiple socioeconomic pathways

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iizumi, T.; Kim, W.; Zhihong, S.; Nishimori, M.

2016-12-01

Global gridded crop models (GGCMs) are a key tool in deriving global food security scenarios under climate change. However, it is difficult for GGCMs to reproduce the reported yield growth patterns—rapid growth, yield stagnation and yield collapse. Here, we propose a set of parameterizations for GGCMs to capture the contributions to yield from technological improvements at the national and multi-decadal scales. These include country annual per capita gross domestic product (GDP)-based parameterizations for the nitrogen application rate and crop tolerance to stresses associated with high temperature, low temperature, water deficit and water excess. Using a GGCM combined with the parameterizations, we present global 140-year (1961-2100) yield growth simulations for maize, soybean, rice and wheat under multiple shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and no climate change. The model reproduces the major characteristics of reported global and country yield growth patterns over the 1961-2013 period. Under the most rapid developmental pathway SSP5, the simulated global yields for 2091-2100, relative to 2001-2010, are the highest (1.21-1.82 times as high, with variations across the crops), followed by SSP1 (1.14-1.56 times as high), SSP2 (1.12-1.49 times as high), SSP4 (1.08-1.38 times as high) and SSP3 (1.08-1.36 times as high). Future country yield growth varies substantially by income level as well as by crop and by SSP. These yield pathways offer a new baseline for addressing the interdisciplinary questions related to global agricultural development, food security and climate change.

Shaping Future Phosphorus Management Pathways by Understanding the Past and Present

EPA Science Inventory

Sustainable phosphorus (P) management in agricultural and urban ecosystems is necessary to ensure global food security and healthy aquatic ecosystems. Researchers and decision-makers alike need to understand how social, economic, political, and biophysical factors interact to cre...

Stock dynamics and emission pathways of the global aluminum cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Müller, Daniel B.; Liu, Gang; Bangs, Colton

Climate change mitigation in the materials sector faces a twin challenge: satisfying rapidly rising global demand for materials while significantly curbing greenhouse-gas emissions. Process efficiency improvement and recycling can contribute to reducing emissions per material output; however, long-term material demand and scrap availability for recycling depend fundamentally on the dynamics of societies' stocks of products in use, an issue that has been largely neglected in climate science. Here, we show that aluminium in-use stock patterns set essential boundary conditions for future emission pathways, which has significant implications for mitigation priority setting. If developing countries follow industrialized countries in their aluminium stock patterns, a 50% emission reduction by 2050 below 2000 levels cannot be reached even under very optimistic recycling and technology assumptions. The target can be reached only if future global per-capita aluminium stocks saturate at a level much lower than that in present major industrialized countries. As long as global in-use stocks are growing rapidly, radical new technologies in primary production (for example, inert anode and carbon capture and storage) have the greatest impact in emission reduction; however, their window of opportunity is closing once the stocks begin to saturate and the largest reduction potential shifts to post-consumer scrap recycling.

Current and Future Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Global Crop Intensification and Expansion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carlson, K. M.; Gerber, J. S.; Mueller, N. D.; O'Connell, C.; West, P. C.

2014-12-01

Food systems currently contribute up to one-third of total anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, and these emissions are expected to rise as demand for agricultural products increases. Thus, improving the greenhouse gas emissions efficiency of agriculture - the tons or kilocalories of production per ton of CO2 equivalent emissions - will be critical to support a resilient future global system. Here, we model and evaluate global, 2000-era, spatially explicit relationships between a suite of greenhouse gas emissions from various agronomic practices (i.e., fertilizer application, peatland draining, and rice cultivation) and crop yields. Then, we predict potential emissions from future crop production increases achieved through intensification and extensification, including CO2 emissions from croplands replacing non-urban land cover. We find that 2000-era yield-scaled agronomic emissions are highly heterogeneous across crops types, crop management practices, and regions. Rice agriculture produces more total CO2-equivalent emissions than any other crop. Moreover, inundated rice in just a few countries contributes the vast majority of these rice emissions. Crops such as sunflower and cotton have low efficiency on a caloric basis. Our results suggest that intensification tends to be a more efficient pathway to boost greenhouse gas emissions efficiency than expansion. We conclude by discussing potential crop- and region-specific agricultural development pathways that may boost the greenhouse gas emissions efficiency of agriculture.

Projecting state-level air pollutant emissions using an integrated assessment model: GCAM-USA.

EPA Science Inventory

Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) characterize the interactions among human and earth systems. IAMs typically have been applied to investigate future energy, land use, and emission pathways at global to continental scales. Recent directions in IAM development include enhanced t...

Assessing future reactive nitrogen inputs into global croplands based on the shared socioeconomic pathways

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mogollón, J. M.; Lassaletta, L.; Beusen, A. H. W.; van Grinsven, H. J. M.; Westhoek, H.; Bouwman, A. F.

2018-04-01

Reactive nitrogen (N) inputs in agriculture strongly outpace the outputs at the global scale due to inefficiencies in cropland N use. While improvement in agricultural practices and environmental legislation in developed regions such as Western Europe have led to a remarkable increase in the N use efficiency since 1985, this lower requirement for reactive N inputs via synthetic fertilizers has yet to occur in many developing and transition regions. Here, we explore future N input requirements and N use efficiency in agriculture for the five shared socioeconomic pathways. Results show that under the most optimistic sustainability scenario, the global synthetic fertilizer use in croplands stabilizes and even shrinks (85 Tg N yr‑1 in 2050) regardless of the increase in crop production required to feed the larger estimated population. This scenario is highly dependent on projected increases in N use efficiency, particularly in South and East Asia. In our most pessimistic scenario, synthetic fertilization application rates are expected to increase almost threefold by 2050 (260 Tg N yr‑1). Excepting the sustainability scenario, all other projected scenarios reveal that the areal N surpluses will exceed acceptable limits in most of the developing regions.

Representative Agricultural Pathways and Climate Impact Assessment for Pacific Northwest Agricultural Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

MU, J.; Antle, J. M.; Zhang, H.; Capalbo, S. M.; Eigenbrode, S.; Kruger, C.; Stockle, C.; Wolfhorst, J. D.

2013-12-01

Representative Agricultural Pathways (RAPs) are projections of plausible future biophysical and socio-economic conditions used to carry out climate impact assessments for agriculture. The development of RAPs iss motivated by the fact that the various global and regional models used for agricultural climate change impact assessment have been implemented with individualized scenarios using various data and model structures, often without transparent documentation or public availability. These practices have hampered attempts at model inter-comparison, improvement, and synthesis of model results across studies. This paper aims to (1) present RAPs developed for the principal wheat-producing region of the Pacific Northwest, and to (2) combine these RAPs with downscaled climate data, crop model simulations and economic model simulations to assess climate change impacts on winter wheat production and farm income. This research was carried out as part of a project funded by the USDA known as the Regional Approaches to Climate Change in the Pacific Northwest (REACCH). The REACCH study region encompasses the major winter wheat production area in Pacific Northwest and preliminary research shows that farmers producing winter wheat could benefit from future climate change. However, the future world is uncertain in many dimensions, including commodity and input prices, production technology, and policies, as well as increased probability of disturbances (pests and diseases) associated with a changing climate. Many of these factors cannot be modeled, so they are represented in the regional RAPS. The regional RAPS are linked to global agricultural and shared social-economic pathways, and used along with climate change projections to simulate future outcomes for the wheat-based farms in the REACCH region.

Quantifying the Global Fresh Water Budget: Capabilities from Current and Future Satellite Sensors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hildebrand, Peter; Zaitchik, Benjamin

2007-01-01

The global water cycle is complex and its components are difficult to measure, particularly at the global scales and with the precision needed for assessing climate impacts. Recent advances in satellite observational capabilities, however, are greatly improving our knowledge of the key terms in the fresh water flux budget. Many components of the of the global water budget, e.g. precipitation, atmospheric moisture profiles, soil moisture, snow cover, sea ice are now routinely measured globally using instruments on satellites such as TRMM, AQUA, TERRA, GRACE, and ICESat, as well as on operational satellites. New techniques, many using data assimilation approaches, are providing pathways toward measuring snow water equivalent, evapotranspiration, ground water, ice mass, as well as improving the measurement quality for other components of the global water budget. This paper evaluates these current and developing satellite capabilities to observe the global fresh water budget, then looks forward to evaluate the potential for improvements that may result from future space missions as detailed by the US Decadal Survey, and operational plans. Based on these analyses, and on the goal of improved knowledge of the global fresh water budget under the effects of climate change, we suggest some priorities for the future, based on new approaches that may provide the improved measurements and the analyses needed to understand and observe the potential speed-up of the global water cycle under the effects of climate change.

How will SOA change in the future?: SOA IN THE FUTURE

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lin, Guangxing; Penner, Joyce E.; Zhou, Cheng

2016-02-17

Secondary organic aerosol (SOA) plays a significant role in the Earth system by altering its radiative balance. Here we use an Earth system model coupled with an explicit SOA formation module to estimate the response of SOA concentrations to changes in climate, anthropogenic emissions, and human land use in the future. We find that climate change is the major driver for SOA change under the representative concentration pathways for the 8.5 future scenario. Climate change increases isoprene emission rate by 18% with the effect of temperature increases outweighing that of the CO2 inhibition effect. Annual mean global SOA mass ismore » increased by 25% as a result of climate change. However, anthropogenic emissions and land use change decrease SOA. The net effect is that future global SOA burden in 2100 is nearly the same as that of the present day. The SOA concentrations over the Northern Hemisphere are predicted to decline in the future due to the control of sulfur emissions.« less

Metabolic engineering of Bacillus subtilis fueled by systems biology: Recent advances and future directions.

PubMed

Liu, Yanfeng; Li, Jianghua; Du, Guocheng; Chen, Jian; Liu, Long

By combining advanced omics technology and computational modeling, systems biologists have identified and inferred thousands of regulatory events and system-wide interactions of the bacterium Bacillus subtilis, which is commonly used both in the laboratory and in industry. This dissection of the multiple layers of regulatory networks and their interactions has provided invaluable information for unraveling regulatory mechanisms and guiding metabolic engineering. In this review, we discuss recent advances in the systems biology and metabolic engineering of B. subtilis and highlight current gaps in our understanding of global metabolism and global pathway engineering in this organism. We also propose future perspectives in the systems biology of B. subtilis and suggest ways that this approach can be used to guide metabolic engineering. Specifically, although hundreds of regulatory events have been identified or inferred via systems biology approaches, systematic investigation of the functionality of these events in vivo has lagged, thereby preventing the elucidation of regulatory mechanisms and further rational pathway engineering. In metabolic engineering, ignoring the engineering of multilayer regulation hinders metabolic flux redistribution. Post-translational engineering, allosteric engineering, and dynamic pathway analyses and control will also contribute to the modulation and control of the metabolism of engineered B. subtilis, ultimately producing the desired cellular traits. We hope this review will aid metabolic engineers in making full use of available systems biology datasets and approaches for the design and perfection of microbial cell factories through global metabolism optimization. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Global impacts of U.S. bioenergy production and policy: A general equilibrium perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Evans, Samuel Garner

The conversion of biomass to energy represents a promising pathway forward in efforts to reduce fossil fuel use in the transportation and electricity sectors. In addition to potential benefits, such as greenhouse gas reductions and increased energy security, bioenergy production also presents a unique set of challenges. These challenges include tradeoffs between food and fuel production, distortions in energy markets, and terrestrial emissions associated with changing land-use patterns. Each of these challenges arises from market-mediated responses to bioenergy production, and are therefore largely economic in nature. This dissertation directly addresses these opportunities and challenges by evaluating the economic impacts of U.S. bioenergy production and policy, focusing on both existing and future biomass-to-energy pathways. The analysis approaches the issue from a global, economy-wide perspective, reflecting two important facts. First, that large-scale bioenergy production connects multiple sectors of the economy due to the use of agricultural land resources for biomass production, and competition with fossil fuels in energy markets. Second, markets for both agricultural and energy commodities are highly integrated globally, causing domestic policies to have international effects. The reader can think of this work as being comprised of three parts. Part I provides context through an extensive review of the literature on the market-mediated effects of conventional biofuel production (Chapter 2) and develops a general equilibrium modeling framework for assessing the extent to which these phenomenon present a challenge for future bioenergy pathways (Chapter 3). Part II (Chapter 4) explores the economic impacts of the lignocellulosic biofuel production targets set in the U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard on global agricultural and energy commodity markets. Part III (Chapter 5) extends the analysis to consider potential inefficiencies associated with policy-induced competition for biomass between the electricity and transportation fuel sectors.

Synergy and Interactions Among Biological Pathways Leading to Preterm Premature Rupture of Membranes

PubMed Central

Lannon, Sophia M. R.; Vanderhoeven, Jeroen P.; Eschenbach, David A.; Gravett, Michael G.; Waldorf, Kristina M. Adams

2014-01-01

Preterm premature rupture of membranes (PPROM) occurs in 1% to 2% of births. Impact of PPROM is greatest in low- and middle-income countries where prematurity-related deaths are most common. Recent investigations identify cytokine and matrix metalloproteinase activation, oxidative stress, and apoptosis as primary pathways to PPROM. These biological processes are initiated by heterogeneous etiologies including infection/inflammation, placental bleeding, uterine overdistention, and genetic polymorphisms. We hypothesize that pathways to PPROM overlap and act synergistically to weaken membranes. We focus our discussion on membrane composition and strength, pathways linking risk factors to membrane weakening, and future research directions to reduce the global burden of PPROM. PMID:24840939

Scenario and modelling uncertainty in global mean temperature change derived from emission driven Global Climate Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Booth, B. B. B.; Bernie, D.; McNeall, D.; Hawkins, E.; Caesar, J.; Boulton, C.; Friedlingstein, P.; Sexton, D.

2012-09-01

We compare future changes in global mean temperature in response to different future scenarios which, for the first time, arise from emission driven rather than concentration driven perturbed parameter ensemble of a Global Climate Model (GCM). These new GCM simulations sample uncertainties in atmospheric feedbacks, land carbon cycle, ocean physics and aerosol sulphur cycle processes. We find broader ranges of projected temperature responses arising when considering emission rather than concentration driven simulations (with 10-90 percentile ranges of 1.7 K for the aggressive mitigation scenario up to 3.9 K for the high end business as usual scenario). A small minority of simulations resulting from combinations of strong atmospheric feedbacks and carbon cycle responses show temperature increases in excess of 9 degrees (RCP8.5) and even under aggressive mitigation (RCP2.6) temperatures in excess of 4 K. While the simulations point to much larger temperature ranges for emission driven experiments, they do not change existing expectations (based on previous concentration driven experiments) on the timescale that different sources of uncertainty are important. The new simulations sample a range of future atmospheric concentrations for each emission scenario. Both in case of SRES A1B and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), the concentration pathways used to drive GCM ensembles lies towards the lower end of our simulated distribution. This design decision (a legecy of previous assessments) is likely to lead concentration driven experiments to under-sample strong feedback responses in concentration driven projections. Our ensemble of emission driven simulations span the global temperature response of other multi-model frameworks except at the low end, where combinations of low climate sensitivity and low carbon cycle feedbacks lead to responses outside our ensemble range. The ensemble simulates a number of high end responses which lie above the CMIP5 carbon cycle range. These high end simulations can be linked to sampling a number of stronger carbon cycle feedbacks and to sampling climate sensitivities above 4.5 K. This latter aspect highlights the priority in identifying real world climate sensitivity constraints which, if achieved, would lead to reductions on the uppper bound of projected global mean temperature change. The ensembles of simulations presented here provides a framework to explore relationships between present day observables and future changes while the large spread of future projected changes, highlights the ongoing need for such work.

Predicting future uncertainty constraints on global warming projections

DOE PAGES

Shiogama, H.; Stone, D.; Emori, S.; ...

2016-01-11

Projections of global mean temperature changes (ΔT) in the future are associated with intrinsic uncertainties. Much climate policy discourse has been guided by "current knowledge" of the ΔTs uncertainty, ignoring the likely future reductions of the uncertainty, because a mechanism for predicting these reductions is lacking. By using simulations of Global Climate Models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 ensemble as pseudo past and future observations, we estimate how fast and in what way the uncertainties of ΔT can decline when the current observation network of surface air temperature is maintained. At least in the world of pseudomore » observations under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), we can drastically reduce more than 50% of the ΔTs uncertainty in the 2040 s by 2029, and more than 60% of the ΔTs uncertainty in the 2090 s by 2049. Under the highest forcing scenario of RCPs, we can predict the true timing of passing the 2°C (3°C) warming threshold 20 (30) years in advance with errors less than 10 years. These results demonstrate potential for sequential decision-making strategies to take advantage of future progress in understanding of anthropogenic climate change.« less

Predicting future uncertainty constraints on global warming projections

PubMed Central

Shiogama, H.; Stone, D.; Emori, S.; Takahashi, K.; Mori, S.; Maeda, A.; Ishizaki, Y.; Allen, M. R.

2016-01-01

Projections of global mean temperature changes (ΔT) in the future are associated with intrinsic uncertainties. Much climate policy discourse has been guided by “current knowledge” of the ΔTs uncertainty, ignoring the likely future reductions of the uncertainty, because a mechanism for predicting these reductions is lacking. By using simulations of Global Climate Models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 ensemble as pseudo past and future observations, we estimate how fast and in what way the uncertainties of ΔT can decline when the current observation network of surface air temperature is maintained. At least in the world of pseudo observations under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), we can drastically reduce more than 50% of the ΔTs uncertainty in the 2040 s by 2029, and more than 60% of the ΔTs uncertainty in the 2090 s by 2049. Under the highest forcing scenario of RCPs, we can predict the true timing of passing the 2 °C (3 °C) warming threshold 20 (30) years in advance with errors less than 10 years. These results demonstrate potential for sequential decision-making strategies to take advantage of future progress in understanding of anthropogenic climate change. PMID:26750491

Predicting future uncertainty constraints on global warming projections

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shiogama, H.; Stone, D.; Emori, S.

Projections of global mean temperature changes (ΔT) in the future are associated with intrinsic uncertainties. Much climate policy discourse has been guided by "current knowledge" of the ΔTs uncertainty, ignoring the likely future reductions of the uncertainty, because a mechanism for predicting these reductions is lacking. By using simulations of Global Climate Models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 ensemble as pseudo past and future observations, we estimate how fast and in what way the uncertainties of ΔT can decline when the current observation network of surface air temperature is maintained. At least in the world of pseudomore » observations under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), we can drastically reduce more than 50% of the ΔTs uncertainty in the 2040 s by 2029, and more than 60% of the ΔTs uncertainty in the 2090 s by 2049. Under the highest forcing scenario of RCPs, we can predict the true timing of passing the 2°C (3°C) warming threshold 20 (30) years in advance with errors less than 10 years. These results demonstrate potential for sequential decision-making strategies to take advantage of future progress in understanding of anthropogenic climate change.« less

Projected changes of the southwest Australian wave climate under two atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration pathways

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wandres, Moritz; Pattiaratchi, Charitha; Hemer, Mark A.

2017-09-01

Incident wave energy flux is responsible for sediment transport and coastal erosion in wave-dominated regions such as the southwestern Australian (SWA) coastal zone. To evaluate future wave climates under increased greenhouse gas concentration scenarios, past studies have forced global wave simulations with wind data sourced from global climate model (GCM) simulations. However, due to the generally coarse spatial resolution of global climate and wave simulations, the effects of changing offshore wave conditions and sea level rise on the nearshore wave climate are still relatively unknown. To address this gap of knowledge, we investigated the projected SWA offshore, shelf, and nearshore wave climate under two potential future greenhouse gas concentration trajectories (representative concentration pathways RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). This was achieved by downscaling an ensemble of global wave simulations, forced with winds from GCMs participating in the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5), into two regional domains, using the Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN) wave model. The wave climate is modeled for a historical 20-year time slice (1986-2005) and a projected future 20-year time-slice (2081-2100) for both scenarios. Furthermore, we compare these scenarios to the effects of considering sea-level rise (SLR) alone (stationary wave climate), and to the effects of combined SLR and projected wind-wave change. Results indicated that the SWA shelf and nearshore wave climate is more sensitive to changes in offshore mean wave direction than offshore wave heights. Nearshore, wave energy flux was projected to increase by ∼10% in exposed areas and decrease by ∼10% in sheltered areas under both climate scenarios due to a change in wave directions, compared to an overall increase of 2-4% in offshore wave heights. With SLR, the annual mean wave energy flux was projected to increase by up to 20% in shallow water (< 30 m) as a result of decreased wave dissipation. In winter months, the longshore wave energy flux, which is responsible for littoral drift, is expected to increase by up to 39% (62%) under the RCP4.5 (RCP8.5) greenhouse gas concentration pathway with SLR. The study highlights the importance of using high-resolution wave simulations to evaluate future regional wave climates, since the coastal wave climate is more responsive to changes in wave direction and sea level than offshore wave heights.

Demographic controls of future global fire risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knorr, W.; Arneth, A.; Jiang, L.

2016-08-01

Wildfires are an important component of terrestrial ecosystem ecology but also a major natural hazard to societies, and their frequency and spatial distribution must be better understood. At a given location, risk from wildfire is associated with the annual fraction of burned area, which is expected to increase in response to climate warming. Until recently, however, only a few global studies of future fire have considered the effects of other important global environmental change factors such as atmospheric CO2 levels and human activities, and how these influence fires in different regions. Here, we contrast the impact of climate change and increasing atmospheric CO2 content on burned area with that of demographic dynamics, using ensembles of climate simulations combined with historical and projected population changes under different socio-economic development pathways for 1901-2100. Historically, humans notably suppressed wildfires. For future scenarios, global burned area will continue to decline under a moderate emissions scenario, except for low population growth and fast urbanization, but start to increase again from around mid-century under high greenhouse gas emissions. Contrary to common perception, we find that human exposure to wildfires increases in the future mainly owing to projected population growth in areas with frequent wildfires, rather than by a general increase in burned area.

Forecasting civil conflict along the shared socioeconomic pathways

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hegre, Håvard; Buhaug, Halvard; Calvin, Katherine V.; Nordkvelle, Jonas; Waldhoff, Stephanie T.; Gilmore, Elisabeth

2016-05-01

Climate change and armed civil conflict are both linked to socioeconomic development, although conditions that facilitate peace may not necessarily facilitate mitigation and adaptation to climate change. While economic growth lowers the risk of conflict, it is generally associated with increased greenhouse gas emissions and costs of climate mitigation policies. This study investigates the links between growth, climate change, and conflict by simulating future civil conflict using new scenario data for five alternative socioeconomic pathways with different mitigation and adaptation assumptions, known as the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). We develop a statistical model of the historical effect of key socioeconomic variables on country-specific conflict incidence, 1960-2013. We then forecast the annual incidence of conflict, 2014-2100, along the five SSPs. We find that SSPs with high investments in broad societal development are associated with the largest reduction in conflict risk. This is most pronounced for the least developed countries—poverty alleviation and human capital investments in poor countries are much more effective instruments to attain global peace and stability than further improvements to wealthier economies. Moreover, the SSP that describes a sustainability pathway, which poses the lowest climate change challenges, is as conducive to global peace as the conventional development pathway.

Development of Nested Socioeconomic Storylines for Climate Change IAV Applications (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Preston, B. L.; Absar, M.

2013-12-01

Socioeconomic scenarios are important for understanding future societal consequences of climate and weather. The global shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) represent a new opportunity for coordinated development and application of such scenarios to improve the representation of alternative societal development pathways within climate change consequence analysis. However, capitalizing on this opportunity necessitates bridging the scale disparity between the global SSPs and the regional/local context for which many impact, adaptation and vulnerability (IAV) studies are conducted. To this end, we adopted the Factor, Actor, and Sector methodology to develop a set of qualitative national and sub-national socioeconomic storylines for the United States and U.S. Southeast using the global SSPs as boundary conditions. In particular, our study sought to develop storylines to explore alternative socioeconomic futures for the U.S. Southeast and their implications for adaptive capacity of the region's energy, water, and agricultural sectors. These storylines subsequently serve as the foundation for a range of downstream IAV applications. These include qualitative vulnerability analysis to explore interactions between energy, water, and agriculture in a changing climate; as well as quantitative impact assessment where regional storylines are used to establish modeling parameters within a biophysical crop model. Such methods and applications illustrate potentially useful opportunities for routinizing the use of SSP-based storylines in IAV studies.

Effect of specific pathways to 1.5°C global warming on the contribution of Greenland to sea level rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Humbert, A.; Rückamp, M.; Falk, U.; Frieler, K.

2017-12-01

Sea level rise associated with changing climate is expected to pose a major challenge for societies. Here, we estimate the future contribution of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) to sea level change in terms of different emission scenarios. We investigate the effect of different pathways of global warming on the dynamics and mass balance of the GrIS with a focus on scenarios in line with limiting global warming to 2.0° or even 1.5° by the end of 2100 (Paris Agreement). We particularly address the issue of peak and decline scenarios temporarily exceeding a given temperature limit. This kind of overshooting might have strong effects on the evolution of the GrIS. Furthermore, we investigate the long-term effects of different levels of climate change to estimate the threshold for stabilizing the GrIS. For modeling the flow dynamics and future evolution of the GrIS, we apply the thermo-mechanical coupled Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM). The model is forced with anomalies for temperature and surface mass balance derived from different GCM data from the CMIP5 RCP2.6 scenario provided from the ISIMIP2b project. In order to obtain these anomalies from the GCM data, a surface energy balance model is applied.

The effect of future outdoor air pollution on human health and the contribution of climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silva, R.; West, J. J.; Lamarque, J.; Shindell, D.; Collins, W.; Dalsoren, S. B.; Faluvegi, G. S.; Folberth, G.; Horowitz, L. W.; Nagashima, T.; Naik, V.; Rumbold, S.; Skeie, R.; Sudo, K.; Takemura, T.; Bergmann, D. J.; Cameron-Smith, P. J.; Cionni, I.; Doherty, R. M.; Eyring, V.; Josse, B.; MacKenzie, I. A.; Plummer, D.; Righi, M.; Stevenson, D. S.; Strode, S. A.; Szopa, S.; Zeng, G.

2013-12-01

At present, exposure to outdoor air pollution from ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) causes over 2 million deaths per year, due to respiratory and cardiovascular diseases and lung cancer. Future ambient concentrations of ozone and PM2.5 will be affected by both air pollutant emissions and climate change. Here we estimate the potential impact of future outdoor air pollution on premature human mortality, and isolate the contribution of future climate change due to its effect on air quality. We use modeled present-day (2000) and future global ozone and PM2.5 concentrations from simulations with an ensemble of chemistry-climate models from the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP). Future air pollution was modeled for global greenhouse gas and air pollutant emissions in the four IPCC AR5 Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios, for 2030, 2050 and 2100. All model outputs are regridded to a common 0.5°x0.5° horizontal resolution. Future premature mortality is estimated for each RCP scenario and year based on changes in concentrations of ozone and PM2.5 relative to 2000. Using a health impact function, changes in concentrations for each RCP scenario are combined with future population and cause-specific baseline mortality rates as projected by a single independent scenario in which the global incidence of cardiopulmonary diseases is expected to increase. The effect of climate change is isolated by considering the difference between air pollutant concentrations from simulations with 2000 emissions and a future year climate and simulations with 2000 emissions and climate. Uncertainties in the results reflect the uncertainty in the concentration-response function and that associated with variability among models. Few previous studies have quantified the effects of future climate change on global human health via changes in air quality, and this is the first such study to use an ensemble of global models.

Implications of alternative assumptions regarding future air pollution control in scenarios similar to the Representative Concentration Pathways

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chuwah, Clifford; van Noije, Twan; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Hazeleger, Wilco; Strunk, Achim; Deetman, Sebastiaan; Beltran, Angelica Mendoza; van Vliet, Jasper

2013-11-01

The uncertain, future development of emissions of short-lived trace gases and aerosols forms a key factor for future air quality and climate forcing. The Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) only explore part of this range as they all assume that worldwide ambitious air pollution control policies will be implemented. In this study, we explore how different assumptions on future air pollution policy and climate policy lead to different concentrations of air pollutants for a set of RCP-like scenarios developed using the IMAGE model. These scenarios combine low and high air pollution variants of the scenarios with radiative forcing targets in 2100 of 2.6 W m-2 and 6.0 W m-2. Simulations using the global atmospheric chemistry and transport model TM5 for the present-day climate show that both climate mitigation and air pollution control policies have large-scale effects on pollutant concentrations, often of similar magnitude. If no further air pollution policies would be implemented, pollution levels could be considerably higher than in the RCPs, especially in Asia. Air pollution control measures could significantly reduce the warming by tropospheric ozone and black carbon and the cooling by sulphate by 2020, and in the longer term contribute to enhanced warming by methane. These effects tend to cancel each other on a global scale. According to our estimates the effect of the worldwide implementation of air pollution control measures on the total global mean direct radiative forcing in 2050 is +0.09 W m-2 in the 6.0 W m-2 scenario and -0.16 W m-2 in the 2.6 W m-2 scenario.

Climate and human intervention effects on future fire activity and consequences for air pollution across the 21st century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Val Martin, M.; Pierce, J. R.; Heald, C. L.; Li, F.; Lawrence, D. M.; Wiedinmyer, C.; Tilmes, S.; Vitt, F.

2016-12-01

Emissions of aerosols and gases from fires have been shown to adversely affect air quality across the world. Fire activity is strongly related to climate and anthropogenic activities. Current fire projections for the 21st century seem very uncertain, ranging from increasing to declining depending on the climate, land cover change and population growth scenarios used. Here we present an analysis of the changes in future wildfire activity and consequences on air quality, with focus on PM2.5 and surface O3 over regions vulnerable to fire. We use the global Community Earth System Model (CESM) with a process-based fire model to simulate emissions from agriculture, peatland, deforestation and landscape fires for present-day and throughout the current century. We consider two future Representative Concentration Pathways climate scenarios combined with population density changes predicted from Shared Socio-economic Pathways to project climate and demographic effects on fire activity and further consequences for future air quality.

Global view of remote sensing of rangelands: Evolution, applications, future pathways [Chapter 10

Treesearch

Matt Reeves; Robert A. Washington-Allen; Jay Angerer; E. Raymond Hunt; Ranjani Wasantha Kulawardhana; Lalit Kumar; Tatiana Loboda; Thomas Loveland; Graciela Metternicht; R. Douglas Ramsey

2015-01-01

The term "rangeland" is rather nebulous, and there is no single definition of rangeland that is universally accepted by land managers, scientists, or international bodies (Lund, 2007; Reeves and Mitchell, 2011). Dozens and possibly hundreds (Lund, 2007) of definitions and ideologies exist because various stakeholders often have unique objectives...

Power Systems of the Future: A 21st Century Power Partnership Thought Leadership Report (Fact Sheet)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

Powerful trends in technology, policy environments, financing, and business models are driving change in power sectors globally. In light of these trends, the question is no longer whether power systems will be transformed, but rather how these transformations will occur. Power Systems of the Future, a thought leadership report from the 21st Century Power Partnership, explores these pathways explores actions that policymakers and regulators can take to encourage desired power system outcomes.

Enhancing the Quantitative Representation of Socioeconomic Conditions in the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) using the International Futures Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rothman, D. S.; Siraj, A.; Hughes, B.

2013-12-01

The international research community is currently in the process of developing new scenarios for climate change research. One component of these scenarios are the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs), which describe a set of possible future socioeconomic conditions. These are presented in narrative storylines with associated quantitative drivers. The core quantitative drivers include total population, average GDP per capita, educational attainment, and urbanization at the global, regional, and national levels. At the same time there have been calls, particularly by the IAV community, for the SSPs to include additional quantitative information on other key social factors, such as income inequality, governance, health, and access to key infrastructures, which are discussed in the narratives. The International Futures system (IFs), based at the Pardee Center at the University of Denver, is able to provide forecasts of many of these indicators. IFs cannot use the SSP drivers as exogenous inputs, but we are able to create development pathways that closely reproduce the core quantitative drivers defined by the different SSPs, as well as incorporating assumptions on other key driving factors described in the qualitative narratives. In this paper, we present forecasts for additional quantitative indicators based upon the implementation of the SSP development pathways in IFs. These results will be of value to many researchers.

AgMIP 1.5°C Assessment: Mitigation and Adaptation at Coordinated Global and Regional Scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosenzweig, C.

2016-12-01

The AgMIP 1.5°C Coordinated Global and Regional Integrated Assessments of Climate Change and Food Security (AgMIP 1.5 CGRA) is linking site-based crop and livestock models with similar models run on global grids, and then links these biophysical components with economics models and nutrition metrics at regional and global scales. The AgMIP 1.5 CGRA assessment brings together experts in climate, crop, livestock, economics, nutrition, and food security to define the 1.5°C Protocols and guide the process throughout the assessment. Scenarios are designed to consistently combine elements of intertwined storylines of future society including socioeconomic development (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways), greenhouse gas concentrations (Representative Concentration Pathways), and specific pathways of agricultural sector development (Representative Agricultural Pathways). Shared Climate Policy Assumptions will be extended to provide additional agricultural detail on mitigation and adaptation strategies. The multi-model, multi-disciplinary, multi-scale integrated assessment framework is using scenarios of economic development, adaptation, mitigation, food policy, and food security. These coordinated assessments are grounded in the expertise of AgMIP partners around the world, leading to more consistent results and messages for stakeholders, policymakers, and the scientific community. The early inclusion of nutrition and food security experts has helped to ensure that assessment outputs include important metrics upon which investment and policy decisions may be based. The CGRA builds upon existing AgMIP research groups (e.g., the AgMIP Wheat Team and the AgMIP Global Gridded Crop Modeling Initiative; GGCMI) and regional programs (e.g., AgMIP Regional Teams in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia), with new protocols for cross-scale and cross-disciplinary linkages to ensure the propagation of expert judgment and consistent assumptions.

Global wheat production potentials and management flexibility under the representative concentration pathways

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balkovic, Juraj; van der Velde, Marijn; Skalsky, Rastislav; Xiong, Wei; Folberth, Christian; Khabarov, Nikolay; Smirnov, Alexey

2014-05-01

Global wheat production is strongly linked with food security as wheat is one of the main sources of human nutrition. Increasing or stabilizing wheat yields in response to climate change is therefore imperative. To do so will require agricultural management interventions that have different levels of flexibility at regional level. Climate change is expected to worsen wheat growing conditions in many places and thus negatively impact on future management opportunities for sustainable intensification. We quantified, in a spatially explicit manner, global wheat yield developments under the envelope of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5) under current and alternative fertilization and irrigation management to estimate future flexibility to cope with climate change impacts. A large-scale implementation of the EPIC model was integrated with the most recent information on global wheat cultivation currently available, and it was used to simulate regional and global wheat yields and production under historical climate and the RCP-driven and bias-corrected HadGEM2-ES climate projections. Fertilization and irrigation management scenarios were designed to project actual and exploitable (under current irrigation infrastructure) yields as well as the climate- and water-limited yield potentials. With current nutrient and water management, and across all RCPs, the global wheat production at the end of the century decreased from 50 to 100 Mt - with RCP2.6 having the lowest and RCP8.5 the highest impact. Despite the decrease in global wheat production potential on current cropland, the exploitable and climatic production gap of respectively 350 and 580 Mt indicates a considerable flexibility to counteract negative climate change impacts across all RCPs. Agricultural management could increase global wheat production by approximately 30% through intensified fertilization and 50% through improved fertilization and extended irrigation if nutrients or water were not limiting.

RCP4.5: A Pathway for Stabilization of Radiative Forcing by 2100

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Thomson, Allison M.; Calvin, Katherine V.; Smith, Steven J.

2011-07-29

Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 is a scenario that stabilizes radiative forcing at 4.5 W m{sup -2} in the year 2100 without ever exceeding that value. Simulated with the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), RCP4.5 includes long-term, global emissions of greenhouse gases, short-lived species, and land-use-land-cover in a global economic framework. RCP4.5 was updated from earlier GCAM scenarios to incorporate historical emissions and land cover information common to the RCP process and follows a cost-minimizing pathway to reach the target radiative forcing. The imperative to limit emissions in order to reach this target drives changes in the energy system, includingmore » shifts to electricity, to lower emissions energy technologies and to the deployment of carbon capture and geologic storage technology. In addition, the RCP4.5 emissions price also applies to land use emissions; as a result, forest lands expand from their present day extent. The simulated future emissions and land use were downscaled from the regional simulation to a grid to facilitate transfer to climate models. While there are many alternative pathways to achieve a radiative forcing level of 4.5 W m{sup -2}, the application of the RCP4.5 provides a common platform for climate models to explore the climate system response to stabilizing the anthropogenic components of radiative forcing.« less

The Emergence of Undergraduate Majors in Global Health: Systematic Review of Programs and Recommendations for Future Directions

PubMed Central

Drain, Paul K.; Mock, Charles; Toole, David; Rosenwald, Anne; Jehn, Megan; Csordas, Thomas; Ferguson, Laura; Waggett, Caryl; Obidoa, Chinekwu; Wasserheit, Judith N.

2017-01-01

Global health education has been expanding rapidly and several universities have created an undergraduate major degree (bachelor's degree) in global heath or global health studies. Because there are currently no national guidelines for undergraduate degrees in global health, each of these programs was developed along individual lines. To guide the development of future global health majors, we conducted a systematic review of undergraduate majors in global health. We identified eight programs and invited program directors or representatives to a symposium at the Consortium of Universities for Global Health 2016 conference to review their existing undergraduate major in global health and to discuss lessons learned and recommendations for other colleges and universities seeking to develop undergraduate degrees in global health. We noted significant diversity among the existing programs in terms of required courses, international field experiences, and thesis research projects. In this review, we describe these global health programs, their student characteristics, as well as the key educational competencies, program requirements, and core global health courses. Based on program reviews and discussions, we identify seven recommendations for the development and expansion of an undergraduate major in global health and discuss issues that have arisen in the curricular development of these programs that warrant further exploration. As the field of global health education continues to expand, following these students after graduation will be essential to ensure that the degree programs in global health both meet student needs and launch students on viable career pathways. PMID:28077739

Nonlinear climate sensitivity and its implications for future greenhouse warming.

PubMed

Friedrich, Tobias; Timmermann, Axel; Tigchelaar, Michelle; Elison Timm, Oliver; Ganopolski, Andrey

2016-11-01

Global mean surface temperatures are rising in response to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. The magnitude of this warming at equilibrium for a given radiative forcing-referred to as specific equilibrium climate sensitivity ( S )-is still subject to uncertainties. We estimate global mean temperature variations and S using a 784,000-year-long field reconstruction of sea surface temperatures and a transient paleoclimate model simulation. Our results reveal that S is strongly dependent on the climate background state, with significantly larger values attained during warm phases. Using the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 for future greenhouse radiative forcing, we find that the range of paleo-based estimates of Earth's future warming by 2100 CE overlaps with the upper range of climate simulations conducted as part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Furthermore, we find that within the 21st century, global mean temperatures will very likely exceed maximum levels reconstructed for the last 784,000 years. On the basis of temperature data from eight glacial cycles, our results provide an independent validation of the magnitude of current CMIP5 warming projections.

Nonlinear climate sensitivity and its implications for future greenhouse warming

PubMed Central

Friedrich, Tobias; Timmermann, Axel; Tigchelaar, Michelle; Elison Timm, Oliver; Ganopolski, Andrey

2016-01-01

Global mean surface temperatures are rising in response to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. The magnitude of this warming at equilibrium for a given radiative forcing—referred to as specific equilibrium climate sensitivity (S)—is still subject to uncertainties. We estimate global mean temperature variations and S using a 784,000-year-long field reconstruction of sea surface temperatures and a transient paleoclimate model simulation. Our results reveal that S is strongly dependent on the climate background state, with significantly larger values attained during warm phases. Using the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 for future greenhouse radiative forcing, we find that the range of paleo-based estimates of Earth’s future warming by 2100 CE overlaps with the upper range of climate simulations conducted as part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Furthermore, we find that within the 21st century, global mean temperatures will very likely exceed maximum levels reconstructed for the last 784,000 years. On the basis of temperature data from eight glacial cycles, our results provide an independent validation of the magnitude of current CMIP5 warming projections. PMID:28861462

Spatial stabilization and intensification of moistening and drying rate patterns under future climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chavaillaz, Y.; Joussaume, S.; Bony, S.; Braconnot, P.

2015-12-01

Most climate studies characterize the future climate change by considering the evolution between a fixed current baseline and the future. It emphasizes an increase of future precipitation changes with global warming. Here we use an alternative approach that considers rate of change indicators related to precipitation using projections of an ensemble of General Circulation Models. The rate is defined by the difference between two subsequent 20-year periods. This approach can be relevant to impacts affecting upcoming generations, and to their continuous adaptation towards a changing target. Under the strongest emission pathway (RCP8.5), moistening and drying rates strongly increase at the global scale. As we move further over the twenty-first century, more and more regions exhibit substantial rates. These regions are modified over time due to spatial variability of precipitation. However, we show that they tend to become more geographically stationary through the century, leading to persisting trends at several places over the globe. Whilst global warming is accelerating, this spatial stabilization is due to the decreasing relative influence of global circulation in precipitation changes compared to thermodynamic processes. In specific regions, the combination of intensification and persistence of such substantial rates should be considered in the framework of future impact studies (i.e. the Mediterranean Sea, Central America, South Asia and the Arctic). These trends are already visible in the current period, but could almost disappear if strong mitigation policies (RCP2.6) were quickly implemented.

Climate, CO2, and demographic impacts on global wildfire emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knorr, W.; Jiang, L.; Arneth, A.

2015-09-01

Wildfires are by far the largest contributor to global biomass burning and constitute a large global source of atmospheric traces gases and aerosols. Such emissions have a considerable impact on air quality and constitute a major health hazard. Biomass burning also influences the radiative balance of the atmosphere and is thus not only of societal, but also of significant scientific interest. There is a common perception that climate change will lead to an increase in emissions as hot and dry weather events that promote wildfire will become more common. However, even though a few studies have found that the inclusion of CO2 fertilization of photosynthesis and changes in human population patterns will tend to somewhat lower predictions of future wildfire emissions, no such study has included full ensemble ranges of both climate predictions and population projections, including the effect of different degrees of urbanisation. Here, we present a series of 124 simulations with the LPJ-GUESS-SIMFIRE global dynamic vegetation - wildfire model, including a semi-empirical formulation for the prediction of burned area based on fire weather, fuel continuity and human population density. The simulations comprise Climate Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) climate predictions from eight Earth system models using two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and five scenarios of future human population density based on the series of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), sensitivity tests for the effect of climate and CO2, as well as a sensitivity analysis using two alternative parameterisations of the semi-empirical burned-area model. Contrary to previous work, we find no clear future trend of global wildfire emissions for the moderate emissions and climate change scenario based on the RCP 4.5. Only historical population change introduces a decline by around 15 % since 1900. Future emissions could either increase for low population growth and fast urbanisation, or continue to decline for high population growth and slow urbanisation. Only for high future climate change (RCP8.5), wildfire emissions start to rise again after ca. 2020 but are unlikely to reach the levels of 1900 by the end of the 21st century. We find that climate warming will generally increase the risk of fire, but that this is only one of several equally important factors driving future levels of wildfire emissions, which include population change, CO2 fertilisation causing woody thickening, increased productivity and fuel load, and faster litter turnover in a warmer climate.

Climate, CO2 and human population impacts on global wildfire emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knorr, W.; Jiang, L.; Arneth, A.

2016-01-01

Wildfires are by far the largest contributor to global biomass burning and constitute a large global source of atmospheric traces gases and aerosols. Such emissions have a considerable impact on air quality and constitute a major health hazard. Biomass burning also influences the radiative balance of the atmosphere and is thus not only of societal, but also of significant scientific interest. There is a common perception that climate change will lead to an increase in emissions as hot and dry weather events that promote wildfire will become more common. However, even though a few studies have found that the inclusion of CO2 fertilisation of photosynthesis and changes in human population patterns will tend to somewhat lower predictions of future wildfire emissions, no such study has included full ensemble ranges of both climate predictions and population projections, including the effect of different degrees of urbanisation.

Here, we present a series of 124 simulations with the LPJ-GUESS-SIMFIRE global dynamic vegetation-wildfire model, including a semi-empirical formulation for the prediction of burned area based on fire weather, fuel continuity and human population density. The simulations use Climate Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) climate predictions from eight Earth system models. These were combined with two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and five scenarios of future human population density based on the series of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) to assess the sensitivity of emissions to the effect of climate, CO2 and humans. In addition, two alternative parameterisations of the semi-empirical burned-area model were applied. Contrary to previous work, we find no clear future trend of global wildfire emissions for the moderate emissions and climate change scenario based on the RCP 4.5. Only historical population change introduces a decline by around 15 % since 1900. Future emissions could either increase for low population growth and fast urbanisation, or continue to decline for high population growth and slow urbanisation. Only for high future climate change (RCP8.5), wildfire emissions start to rise again after ca. 2020 but are unlikely to reach the levels of 1900 by the end of the 21st century. We find that climate warming will generally increase the risk of fire, but that this is only one of several equally important factors driving future levels of wildfire emissions, which include population change, CO2 fertilisation causing woody thickening, increased productivity and fuel load and faster litter turnover in a warmer climate.

Deep Uncertainty Surrounding Coastal Flood Risk Projections: A Case Study for New Orleans

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wong, Tony E.; Keller, Klaus

2017-10-01

Future sea-level rise drives severe risks for many coastal communities. Strategies to manage these risks hinge on a sound characterization of the uncertainties. For example, recent studies suggest that large fractions of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) may rapidly disintegrate in response to rising global temperatures, leading to potentially several meters of sea-level rise during the next few centuries. It is deeply uncertain, for example, whether such an AIS disintegration will be triggered, how much this would increase sea-level rise, whether extreme storm surges intensify in a warming climate, or which emissions pathway future societies will choose. Here, we assess the impacts of these deep uncertainties on projected flooding probabilities for a levee ring in New Orleans, LA. We use 18 scenarios, presenting probabilistic projections within each one, to sample key deeply uncertain future projections of sea-level rise, radiative forcing pathways, storm surge characterization, and contributions from rapid AIS mass loss. The implications of these deep uncertainties for projected flood risk are thus characterized by a set of 18 probability distribution functions. We use a global sensitivity analysis to assess which mechanisms contribute to uncertainty in projected flood risk over the course of a 50-year design life. In line with previous work, we find that the uncertain storm surge drives the most substantial risk, followed by general AIS dynamics, in our simple model for future flood risk for New Orleans.

Future Urban Climate Projection in A Tropical Megacity Based on Global and Regional Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Darmanto, N. S.; Varquez, A. C. G.; Kanda, M.

2017-12-01

Cities in Asian developing countries experience rapid transformation in urban morphology and energy consumption, which correspondingly affects urban climate. Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model coupled with improved single-layer urban canopy model incorporating realistic distribution of urban parameters and anthropogenic heat emission (AHE) in the tropic Jakarta Greater Area was conducted. Simulation was conducted during the dry months from 2006 to 2015 and agreed well with point and satellite observation. The same technology coupled with pseudo global warming (PGW) method based on representative concentration pathways (RCP) scenario 2.6 and 8.5 was conducted to produce futuristic climate condition in 2050. Projected urban morphology and AHE in 2050s were constructed using regional urban growing model with shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) among its inputs. Compact future urban configuration, based on SSP1, was coupled to RCP2.6. Unrestrained future urban configuration, based on SSP3, was coupled to RCP8.5. Results show that background warming from RCP 2.6 and 8.5 will increase background temperature by 0.55°C and 1.2°C throughout the region, respectively. Future projection of urban sprawl results to an additional 0.3°C and 0.5°C increase on average, with maximum increase of 1.1°C and 1.3°C due to urban effect for RCP2.6/compact and RCP8.5/unrestrained, respectively. Higher moisture content in urban area is indicated in the future due to higher evaporation. Change in urban roughness is likely affect slower wind velocity in urban area and sea breeze front inland penetration the future compare with current condition. Acknowledgement: This research was supported by the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (S-14) of the Ministry of the Environment, Japan.

Projecting Drivers of Human Vulnerability under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways.

PubMed

Rohat, Guillaume

2018-03-19

The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) are the new set of alternative futures of societal development that inform global and regional climate change research. They have the potential to foster the integration of socioeconomic scenarios within assessments of future climate-related health impacts. To date, such assessments have primarily superimposed climate scenarios on current socioeconomic conditions only. Until now, the few assessments of future health risks that employed the SSPs have focused on future human exposure-i.e., mainly future population patterns-, neglecting future human vulnerability. This paper first explores the research gaps-mainly linked to the paucity of available projections-that explain such a lack of consideration of human vulnerability under the SSPs. It then highlights the need for projections of socioeconomic variables covering the wide range of determinants of human vulnerability, available at relevant spatial and temporal scales, and accounting for local specificities through sectoral and regional extended versions of the global SSPs. Finally, this paper presents two innovative methods of obtaining and computing such socioeconomic projections under the SSPs-namely the scenario matching approach and an approach based on experts' elicitation and correlation analyses-and applies them to the case of Europe. They offer a variety of possibilities for practical application, producing projections at sub-national level of various drivers of human vulnerability such as demographic and social characteristics, urbanization, state of the environment, infrastructure, health status, and living arrangements. Both the innovative approaches presented in this paper and existing methods-such as the spatial disaggregation of existing projections and the use of sectoral models-show great potential to enhance the availability of relevant projections of determinants of human vulnerability. Assessments of future climate-related health impacts should thus rely on these methods to account for future human vulnerability-under varying levels of socioeconomic development-and to explore its influence on future health risks under different degrees of climate change.

Projecting Drivers of Human Vulnerability under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) are the new set of alternative futures of societal development that inform global and regional climate change research. They have the potential to foster the integration of socioeconomic scenarios within assessments of future climate-related health impacts. To date, such assessments have primarily superimposed climate scenarios on current socioeconomic conditions only. Until now, the few assessments of future health risks that employed the SSPs have focused on future human exposure—i.e., mainly future population patterns—, neglecting future human vulnerability. This paper first explores the research gaps—mainly linked to the paucity of available projections—that explain such a lack of consideration of human vulnerability under the SSPs. It then highlights the need for projections of socioeconomic variables covering the wide range of determinants of human vulnerability, available at relevant spatial and temporal scales, and accounting for local specificities through sectoral and regional extended versions of the global SSPs. Finally, this paper presents two innovative methods of obtaining and computing such socioeconomic projections under the SSPs—namely the scenario matching approach and an approach based on experts’ elicitation and correlation analyses—and applies them to the case of Europe. They offer a variety of possibilities for practical application, producing projections at sub-national level of various drivers of human vulnerability such as demographic and social characteristics, urbanization, state of the environment, infrastructure, health status, and living arrangements. Both the innovative approaches presented in this paper and existing methods—such as the spatial disaggregation of existing projections and the use of sectoral models—show great potential to enhance the availability of relevant projections of determinants of human vulnerability. Assessments of future climate-related health impacts should thus rely on these methods to account for future human vulnerability—under varying levels of socioeconomic development—and to explore its influence on future health risks under different degrees of climate change. PMID:29562727

Forecasting civil conflict along the shared socioeconomic pathways

DOE PAGES

Hegre, Håvard; Buhaug, Halvard; Calvin, Katherine V.; ...

2016-04-25

Climate change and armed civil conflict are both linked to socioeconomic development, although conditions that facilitate peace may not necessarily facilitate mitigation and adaptation to climate change. While economic growth lowers the risk of conflict, it is generally associated with increased greenhouse gas emissions and costs of climate mitigation policies. Here, this study investigates the links between growth, climate change, and conflict by simulating future civil conflict using new scenario data for five alternative socioeconomic pathways with different mitigation and adaptation assumptions, known as the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). We develop a statistical model of the historical effect of keymore » socioeconomic variables on country-specific conflict incidence, 1960–2013. We then forecast the annual incidence of conflict, 2014–2100, along the five SSPs. We find that SSPs with high investments in broad societal development are associated with the largest reduction in conflict risk. This is most pronounced for the least developed countries—poverty alleviation and human capital investments in poor countries are much more effective instruments to attain global peace and stability than further improvements to wealthier economies. Moreover, the SSP that describes a sustainability pathway, which poses the lowest climate change challenges, is as conducive to global peace as the conventional development pathway.« less

Forecasting civil conflict along the shared socioeconomic pathways

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hegre, Håvard; Buhaug, Halvard; Calvin, Katherine V.

Climate change and armed civil conflict are both linked to socioeconomic development, although conditions that facilitate peace may not necessarily facilitate mitigation and adaptation to climate change. While economic growth lowers the risk of conflict, it is generally associated with increased greenhouse gas emissions and costs of climate mitigation policies. Here, this study investigates the links between growth, climate change, and conflict by simulating future civil conflict using new scenario data for five alternative socioeconomic pathways with different mitigation and adaptation assumptions, known as the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). We develop a statistical model of the historical effect of keymore » socioeconomic variables on country-specific conflict incidence, 1960–2013. We then forecast the annual incidence of conflict, 2014–2100, along the five SSPs. We find that SSPs with high investments in broad societal development are associated with the largest reduction in conflict risk. This is most pronounced for the least developed countries—poverty alleviation and human capital investments in poor countries are much more effective instruments to attain global peace and stability than further improvements to wealthier economies. Moreover, the SSP that describes a sustainability pathway, which poses the lowest climate change challenges, is as conducive to global peace as the conventional development pathway.« less

Warming caused by cumulative carbon emissions towards the trillionth tonne.

PubMed

Allen, Myles R; Frame, David J; Huntingford, Chris; Jones, Chris D; Lowe, Jason A; Meinshausen, Malte; Meinshausen, Nicolai

2009-04-30

Global efforts to mitigate climate change are guided by projections of future temperatures. But the eventual equilibrium global mean temperature associated with a given stabilization level of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations remains uncertain, complicating the setting of stabilization targets to avoid potentially dangerous levels of global warming. Similar problems apply to the carbon cycle: observations currently provide only a weak constraint on the response to future emissions. Here we use ensemble simulations of simple climate-carbon-cycle models constrained by observations and projections from more comprehensive models to simulate the temperature response to a broad range of carbon dioxide emission pathways. We find that the peak warming caused by a given cumulative carbon dioxide emission is better constrained than the warming response to a stabilization scenario. Furthermore, the relationship between cumulative emissions and peak warming is remarkably insensitive to the emission pathway (timing of emissions or peak emission rate). Hence policy targets based on limiting cumulative emissions of carbon dioxide are likely to be more robust to scientific uncertainty than emission-rate or concentration targets. Total anthropogenic emissions of one trillion tonnes of carbon (3.67 trillion tonnes of CO(2)), about half of which has already been emitted since industrialization began, results in a most likely peak carbon-dioxide-induced warming of 2 degrees C above pre-industrial temperatures, with a 5-95% confidence interval of 1.3-3.9 degrees C.

Longevity health sciences and mental health as future medicine.

PubMed

Riga, Sorin; Riga, Dan; Mihailescu, Alexandra; Motoc, Daniela; Mos, Liana; Schneider, Francisc

2010-06-01

Longevity health sciences and mental health are fields of public health and of preventive and integrative medicine. The antagonism between health construction and human pathology is substantiated by two opposite fundamental pathways: the health-longevity tetrad versus the aging-disease cascade. It is necessary that the current paradigm of contemporary medicine be replaced by the advanced paradigm of future medicine. A societal cost-benefit rate is decisive for health-longevity promotion. This is why the WHO public health strategy keeps forwarding the societal medical target into the global health-longevity field.

Driving social impact with common global indicators for healthy lifestyle programs: lessons learned.

PubMed

Robinson, Nicole R; Gin, Julia; Kamath-Jha, Shilpa; Infantes, Michel; Hernandez, Ricardo; Alberg-Seberich, Michael; Suri, Devika; Pérez-Escamilla, Rafael

2014-09-01

Partnerships between corporate entities and non-governmental organizations (NGOs) involved in delivering community focused health and well-being programs are becoming increasingly valuable especially in the context of promoting healthy lifestyles around the globe. The Mondelēz International Foundation (MIF) has funded healthy lifestyles community based programs targeting children and youth through partnership with seven global NGOs. To assess collective impact of these programs, it is crucial to identify best practices and common impact indicators that can be measured across programs. MIF therefore organized the Healthy Lifestyles Evaluation Workshop to explore these pertinent questions. Share best practices and identify common impact indicators to measure the success of current and future MIF funded healthy lifestyles programs. Analysis of the Program Impact Pathways (PIPs) and measured output of each of the seven programs. Individual and combined analysis of PIPs of the seven NGO programs led to identification of three critical impact indicators: nutrition knowledge, physical activity, and healthier eating, and also enabled NGOs to identify pathways to improve program delivery among the target population. This workshop enabled MIF and partner NGOs to came together to align on metrics and future engagement approaches for promoting and evaluating community based healthy lifestyles programs.

How extractive industries affect health: Political economy underpinnings and pathways.

PubMed

Schrecker, Ted; Birn, Anne-Emanuelle; Aguilera, Mariajosé

2018-06-07

A systematic and theoretically informed analysis of how extractive industries affect health outcomes and health inequities is overdue. Informed by the work of Saskia Sassen on "logics of extraction," we adopt an expansive definition of extractive industries to include (for example) large-scale foreign acquisitions of agricultural land for export production. To ground our analysis in concrete place-based evidence, we begin with a brief review of four case examples of major extractive activities. We then analyze the political economy of extractivism, focusing on the societal structures, processes, and relationships of power that drive and enable extraction. Next, we examine how this global order shapes and interacts with politics, institutions, and policies at the state/national level contextualizing extractive activity. Having provided necessary context, we posit a set of pathways that link the global political economy and national politics and institutional practices surrounding extraction to health outcomes and their distribution. These pathways involve both direct health effects, such as toxic work and environmental exposures and assassination of activists, and indirect effects, including sustained impoverishment, water insecurity, and stress-related ailments. We conclude with some reflections on the need for future research on the health and health equity implications of the global extractive order. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Increasing human dominance of tropical forests.

PubMed

Lewis, Simon L; Edwards, David P; Galbraith, David

2015-08-21

Tropical forests house over half of Earth's biodiversity and are an important influence on the climate system. These forests are experiencing escalating human influence, altering their health and the provision of important ecosystem functions and services. Impacts started with hunting and millennia-old megafaunal extinctions (phase I), continuing via low-intensity shifting cultivation (phase II), to today's global integration, dominated by intensive permanent agriculture, industrial logging, and attendant fires and fragmentation (phase III). Such ongoing pressures, together with an intensification of global environmental change, may severely degrade forests in the future (phase IV, global simplification) unless new "development without destruction" pathways are established alongside climate change-resilient landscape designs. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Global projections of drought hazard in a warming climate: a prime for disaster risk management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carrão, Hugo; Naumann, Gustavo; Barbosa, Paulo

2018-03-01

Projections of drought hazard ( dH) changes have been mapped from five bias-corrected climate models and analyzed at the global level under three representative concentration pathways (RCPs). The motivation for this study is the observation that drought risk is increasing globally and the effective regulation of prevention and adaptation measures depends on dH magnitude and its distribution for the future. Based on the Weighted Anomaly of Standardized Precipitation index, dH changes have been assessed for mid-(2021-2050) and late-century (2071-2099). With a few exceptions, results show a likely increase in global dH between the historical years (1971-2000) and both future time periods under all RCPs. Notwithstanding this worsening trend, it was found that projections of dH changes for most regions are neither robust nor significant in the near-future. By the end of the century, greater increases are projected for RCPs describing stronger radiative forcing. Under RCP8.5, statistically significant dH changes emerge for global Mediterranean ecosystems and the Amazon region, which are identified as possible hotspots for future water security issues. Taken together, projections of dH changes point towards two dilemmas: (1) in the near-term, stake-holders are left worrying about projected increasing dH over large regions, but lack of actionable model agreement to take effective decisions related to local prevention and adaptation initiatives; (2) in the long-term, models demonstrate remarkable agreement, but stake-holders lack actionable knowledge to manage potential impacts far distant from actual human-dominated environments. We conclude that the major challenge for risk management is not to adapt human populations or their activities to dH changes, but to progress on global initiatives that mitigate their impacts in the whole carbon cycle by late-century.

Projection of Future Mortality Due to Temperature and Population Changes under Representative Concentration Pathways and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

PubMed Central

Lee, Jae Young; Kim, Ejin; Lee, Woo-Seop; Chae, Yeora; Kim, Ho

2018-01-01

The Paris Agreement aims to limit the global temperature increase to below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the increase to even below 1.5 °C. Now, it should be asked what benefits are in pursuing these two targets. In this study, we assessed the temperature–mortality relationship using a distributed lag non-linear model in seven major cities of South Korea. Then, we projected future temperature-attributable mortality under different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios for those cities. Mortality was projected to increase by 1.53 under the RCP 4.5 (temperature increase by 2.83 °C) and 3.3 under the RCP 8.5 (temperature increase by 5.10 °C) until the 2090s, as compared to baseline (1991–2015) mortality. However, future mortality is expected to increase by less than 1.13 and 1.26 if the 1.5 °C and 2 °C increase targets are met, respectively, under the RCP 4.5. Achieving the more ambitious target of 1.5 °C will reduce mortality by 12%, when compared to the 2 °C target. When we estimated future mortality due to both temperature and population changes, the future mortality was found to be increased by 2.07 and 3.85 for the 1.5 °C and 2 °C temperature increases, respectively, under the RCP 4.5. These increases can be attributed to a growing proportion of elderly population, who is more vulnerable to high temperatures. Meeting the target of 1.5 °C will be particularly beneficial for rapidly aging societies, including South Korea. PMID:29690535

Projection of Future Mortality Due to Temperature and Population Changes under Representative Concentration Pathways and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways.

PubMed

Lee, Jae Young; Kim, Ejin; Lee, Woo-Seop; Chae, Yeora; Kim, Ho

2018-04-21

The Paris Agreement aims to limit the global temperature increase to below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the increase to even below 1.5 °C. Now, it should be asked what benefits are in pursuing these two targets. In this study, we assessed the temperature⁻mortality relationship using a distributed lag non-linear model in seven major cities of South Korea. Then, we projected future temperature-attributable mortality under different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios for those cities. Mortality was projected to increase by 1.53 under the RCP 4.5 (temperature increase by 2.83 °C) and 3.3 under the RCP 8.5 (temperature increase by 5.10 °C) until the 2090s, as compared to baseline (1991⁻2015) mortality. However, future mortality is expected to increase by less than 1.13 and 1.26 if the 1.5 °C and 2 °C increase targets are met, respectively, under the RCP 4.5. Achieving the more ambitious target of 1.5 °C will reduce mortality by 12%, when compared to the 2 °C target. When we estimated future mortality due to both temperature and population changes, the future mortality was found to be increased by 2.07 and 3.85 for the 1.5 °C and 2 °C temperature increases, respectively, under the RCP 4.5. These increases can be attributed to a growing proportion of elderly population, who is more vulnerable to high temperatures. Meeting the target of 1.5 °C will be particularly beneficial for rapidly aging societies, including South Korea.

Global Health in the Anthropocene: Moving Beyond Resilience and Capitalism Comment on "Health Promotion in an Age of Normative Equity and Rampant Inequality".

PubMed

van de Pas, Remco

2016-12-24

There has been much reflection on the need for a new understanding of global health and the urgency of a paradigm shift to address global health issues. A crucial question is whether this is still possible in current modes of global governance based on capitalist values. Four reflections are provided. (1) Ecological -centered values must become central in any future global health framework. (2) The objectives of 'sustainability' and 'economic growth' present a profound contradiction. (3) The resilience discourse maintains a gridlock in the functioning of the global health system. (4) The legitimacy of multi-stakeholder governance arrangements in global health requires urgent attention. A dual track approach is suggested. It must be aimed to transform capitalism into something better for global health while in parallel there is an urgent need to imagine a future and pathways to a different world order rooted in the principles of social justice, protecting the commons and a central role for the preservation of ecology. © 2017 The Author(s); Published by Kerman University of Medical Sciences. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Global Analysis of Climate Change Projection Effects on Atmospheric Rivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Espinoza, Vicky; Waliser, Duane E.; Guan, Bin; Lavers, David A.; Ralph, F. Martin

2018-05-01

A uniform, global approach is used to quantify how atmospheric rivers (ARs) change between Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 historical simulations and future projections under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP8.5 warming scenarios. The projections indicate that while there will be 10% fewer ARs in the future, the ARs will be 25% longer, 25% wider, and exhibit stronger integrated water vapor transports (IVTs) under RCP8.5. These changes result in pronounced increases in the frequency (IVT strength) of AR conditions under RCP8.5: 50% (25%) globally, 50% (20%) in the northern midlatitudes, and 60% (20%) in the southern midlatitudes. The models exhibit systematic low biases across the midlatitudes in replicating historical AR frequency ( 10%), zonal IVT ( 15%), and meridional IVT ( 25%), with sizable intermodel differences. A more detailed examination of six regions strongly impacted by ARs suggests that the western United States, northwestern Europe, and southwestern South America exhibit considerable intermodel differences in projected changes in ARs.

Carbon Budgets as a Guide to Deep Decarbonisation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rogelj, J.

2017-12-01

Halting global mean temperature rise requires a limit on the cumulative amount of net CO2 disposed of in the atmosphere. Remaining within the limits of such carbon budgets over the 21st century will require a profound transformation of how our societies use and produce energy, crops, and materials. To understand the options available to stay within stringent carbon budget constraints, global transformation pathways are being devised with integrated models of the energy-economy-land system. This presentation will look at how the latest insights of such pathways affect carbon budgets. Estimates of carbon budgets compatible with a given temperature limit depend on the anticipated temperature contribution at peak warming of non-CO2 forcers. Integrated transformation pathways allow to understand the projected extend of these contributions, as well as estimate the maximum conceivable rate of emissions reductions over the coming decades. The latter directly informs the lower end of future cumulative CO2 emissions and can thus provide an estimate for minimum peak warming over the 21st century - a measure which can be compared to the ambitious long-term temperature goal of the UNFCCC Paris Agreement.

Ecosystem service impacts of future changes in CO2, climate, and land use as simulated by a coupled vegetation/land-use model system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rabin, S. S.; Alexander, P.; Henry, R.; Anthoni, P.; Pugh, T.; Rounsevell, M.; Arneth, A.

2017-12-01

In a future of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations, changing climate, increasing human populations, and changing socioeconomic dynamics, the global agricultural system will need to adapt in order to feed the world. Global modeling can help to explore what these adaptations will look like, and their potential impacts on ecosystem services. To do so, however, the complex interconnections among the atmosphere, terrestrial ecosystems, and society mean that these various parts of the Earth system must be examined as an interconnected whole. With the goal of answering these questions, a model system has been developed that couples a biologically-representative global vegetation model, LPJ-GUESS, with the PLUMv2 land use model. LPJ-GUESS first simulates—at 0.5º resolution across the world—the potential yield of various crops and pasture under a range of management intensities for a time step given its atmospheric CO2 level and climatic forcings. These potential yield simulations are fed into PLUMv2, which uses them in conjunction with endogenous agricultural commodity demand and prices to produce land use and management inputs (fertilizer and irrigation water) at a sub-national level for the next time step. This process is performed through 2100 for a range of future climate and societal scenarios—the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), respectively—providing a thorough exploration of possible trajectories of land use and land cover change. The land use projections produced by PLUMv2 are fed back into LPJ-GUESS to simulate the future impacts of land use change, along with increasing CO2 and climate change, on terrestrial ecosystems. This integrated analysis examines the resulting impacts on regulating and provisioning ecosystem services affecting biophysics (albedo); carbon, nitrogen, and water cycling; and the emission of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs).

Meeting the Radiative Forcing Targets of the Representative Concentration Pathways with Agricultural Climate Impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kyle, P.; Müller, C.; Calvin, K. V.; Thomson, A. M.

2013-12-01

The Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) have formed the basis for much of the current scientific understanding of future climate change impacts and mitigation. However, the emissions scenarios underlying the RCPs were produced by integrated assessment models that did not include impacts of future climate change on the modeled evolution of the agricultural and energy systems. Given the prominent role of bioenergy in greenhouse gas emissions mitigation, and given the importance of land-use-related emissions in determining future atmospheric CO2 concentrations, it is possible that agricultural climate impacts may cause significant changes to the means and costs of mitigating greenhouse gas emissions. This study builds on several international modeling exercises aimed at improving understanding of climate change impacts--CMIP-5 and ISI-MIP--that have generated global gridded climate impacts on yields of major agricultural crops in each of the four RCPs. We use the climate outcomes from the HadGEM2-ES climate model, and the agricultural yield outcomes from the LPJmL crop growth model to inform inputs to the GCAM integrated assessment model, allowing analysis of how agricultural climate impacts may affect the long-term global and regional strategies for achieving the greenhouse gas concentration pathways of the RCPs. Our results indicate that for this combination of models and emissions scenarios, strongly negative climate impacts on several major commodity classes--prominently cereals and oil seeds, and particularly in the high-radiative-forcing RCPs--lead to a long-term increase in cropland and therefore land-use-related CO2 emissions. All else equal, this increases the emissions mitigation burden on the rest of the system, and therefore increases total net costs of emissions mitigation. However, the future climate change impacts on C4 bioenergy crops tend to be positive, limiting the shock of agricultural climate impacts on the modeled energy supply and demand systems. As well, endogenous adaptation in the agricultural sector--mostly through inter-regional shifting in production and changes in trade patterns--limits the shock of climate impacts to consumers. Global average climate impacts on wheat yields for the four emissions scenarios, using base-year weights (asterisks) and using the endogenous land allocations in GCAM (filled diamonds)

Climate extremes and the carbon cycle.

PubMed

Reichstein, Markus; Bahn, Michael; Ciais, Philippe; Frank, Dorothea; Mahecha, Miguel D; Seneviratne, Sonia I; Zscheischler, Jakob; Beer, Christian; Buchmann, Nina; Frank, David C; Papale, Dario; Rammig, Anja; Smith, Pete; Thonicke, Kirsten; van der Velde, Marijn; Vicca, Sara; Walz, Ariane; Wattenbach, Martin

2013-08-15

The terrestrial biosphere is a key component of the global carbon cycle and its carbon balance is strongly influenced by climate. Continuing environmental changes are thought to increase global terrestrial carbon uptake. But evidence is mounting that climate extremes such as droughts or storms can lead to a decrease in regional ecosystem carbon stocks and therefore have the potential to negate an expected increase in terrestrial carbon uptake. Here we explore the mechanisms and impacts of climate extremes on the terrestrial carbon cycle, and propose a pathway to improve our understanding of present and future impacts of climate extremes on the terrestrial carbon budget.

A systematic review of neuroprotective strategies after cardiac arrest: from bench to bedside (Part I – Protection via specific pathways)

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Neurocognitive deficits are a major source of morbidity in survivors of cardiac arrest. Treatment options that could be implemented either during cardiopulmonary resuscitation or after return of spontaneous circulation to improve these neurological deficits are limited. We conducted a literature review of treatment protocols designed to evaluate neurologic outcome and survival following cardiac arrest with associated global cerebral ischemia. The search was limited to investigational therapies that were utilized to treat global cerebral ischemia associated with cardiac arrest. In this review we discuss potential mechanisms of neurologic protection following cardiac arrest including actions of several medical gases such as xenon, argon, and nitric oxide. The 3 included mechanisms are: 1. Modulation of neuronal cell death; 2. Alteration of oxygen free radicals; and 3. Improving cerebral hemodynamics. Only a few approaches have been evaluated in limited fashion in cardiac arrest patients and results show inconclusive neuroprotective effects. Future research focusing on combined neuroprotective strategies that target multiple pathways are compelling in the setting of global brain ischemia resulting from cardiac arrest. PMID:24808942

Untangling Consequential Futures: Discovering Self-Consistent Regional and Global Multi-Sector Change Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lamontagne, J. R.; Reed, P. M.

2017-12-01

Impacts and adaptations to global change largely occur at regional scales, yet they are shaped globally through the interdependent evolution of the climate, energy, agriculture, and industrial systems. It is important for regional actors to account for the impacts of global changes on their systems in a globally consistent but regionally relevant way. This can be challenging because emerging global reference scenarios may not reflect regional challenges. Likewise, regionally specific scenarios may miss important global feedbacks. In this work, we contribute a scenario discovery framework to identify regionally-specific decision relevant scenarios from an ensemble of scenarios of global change. To this end, we generated a large ensemble of time evolving regional, multi-sector global change scenarios by a full factorial sampling of the underlying assumptions in the emerging shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs), using the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). Statistical and visual analytics were then used to discover which SSP assumptions are particularly consequential for various regions, considering a broad range of time-evolving metrics that encompass multiple spatial scales and sectors. In an illustrative examples, we identify the most important global change narratives to inform water resource scenarios for several geographic regions using the proposed scenario discovery framework. Our results highlight the importance of demographic and agricultural evolution compared to technical improvements in the energy sector. We show that narrowly sampling a few canonical reference scenarios provides a very narrow view of the consequence space, increasing the risk of tacitly ignoring major impacts. Even optimistic scenarios contain unintended, disproportionate regional impacts and intergenerational transfers of consequence. Formulating consequential scenarios of deeply and broadly uncertain futures requires a better exploration of which quantitative measures of consequences are important, for whom are they important, where, and when. To this end, we have contributed a large database of climate change futures that can support `backwards' scenario generation techniques, that capture a broader array of consequences than those that emerge from limited sampling of a few reference scenarios.

The Role of Latin America’s Land and Water Resources for Global Food Security: Environmental Trade-Offs of Future Food Production Pathways

PubMed Central

Flachsbarth, Insa; Willaarts, Bárbara; Xie, Hua; Pitois, Gauthier; Mueller, Nathaniel D.; Ringler, Claudia; Garrido, Alberto

2015-01-01

One of humanity’s major challenges of the 21st century will be meeting future food demands on an increasingly resource constrained-planet. Global food production will have to rise by 70 percent between 2000 and 2050 to meet effective demand which poses major challenges to food production systems. Doing so without compromising environmental integrity is an even greater challenge. This study looks at the interdependencies between land and water resources, agricultural production and environmental outcomes in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), an area of growing importance in international agricultural markets. Special emphasis is given to the role of LAC’s agriculture for (a) global food security and (b) environmental sustainability. We use the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT)—a global dynamic partial equilibrium model of the agricultural sector—to run different future production scenarios, and agricultural trade regimes out to 2050, and assess changes in related environmental indicators. Results indicate that further trade liberalization is crucial for improving food security globally, but that it would also lead to more environmental pressures in some regions across Latin America. Contrasting land expansion versus more intensified agriculture shows that productivity improvements are generally superior to agricultural land expansion, from an economic and environmental point of view. Finally, our analysis shows that there are trade-offs between environmental and food security goals for all agricultural development paths. PMID:25617621

Future Global Mortality from Changes in Air Pollution Attributable to Climate Change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Silva, Raquel A.; West, J. Jason; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Shindell, Drew T.; Collins, William J.; Faluvegi, Greg; Folberth, Gerd A.; Horowitz, Larry W.; Nagashima, Tatsuya; Naik, Vaishali;

The role of Latin America's land and water resources for global food security: environmental trade-offs of future food production pathways.

PubMed

Flachsbarth, Insa; Willaarts, Bárbara; Xie, Hua; Pitois, Gauthier; Mueller, Nathaniel D; Ringler, Claudia; Garrido, Alberto

2015-01-01

One of humanity's major challenges of the 21st century will be meeting future food demands on an increasingly resource constrained-planet. Global food production will have to rise by 70 percent between 2000 and 2050 to meet effective demand which poses major challenges to food production systems. Doing so without compromising environmental integrity is an even greater challenge. This study looks at the interdependencies between land and water resources, agricultural production and environmental outcomes in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), an area of growing importance in international agricultural markets. Special emphasis is given to the role of LAC's agriculture for (a) global food security and (b) environmental sustainability. We use the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT)-a global dynamic partial equilibrium model of the agricultural sector-to run different future production scenarios, and agricultural trade regimes out to 2050, and assess changes in related environmental indicators. Results indicate that further trade liberalization is crucial for improving food security globally, but that it would also lead to more environmental pressures in some regions across Latin America. Contrasting land expansion versus more intensified agriculture shows that productivity improvements are generally superior to agricultural land expansion, from an economic and environmental point of view. Finally, our analysis shows that there are trade-offs between environmental and food security goals for all agricultural development paths.

Gene Expression Profiling of Lung Tissue of Rats Exposed to Lunar Dust Particles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zhang, Ye; Feiveson, Alan H.; Lam, Chiu-Wing; Kidane, Yared H.; Ploutz-Snyder Robert; Yeshitla, Samrawit; Zalesak, Selina M.; Scully, Robert R.; Wu, Honglu; James, John T.

2014-01-01

The purpose of the study is to analyze the dynamics of global gene expression changes in the lung tissue of rats exposed to lunar dust particles. Multiple pathways and transcription factors were identified using the Ingenuity Pathway Analysis tool, showing the potential networks of these signaling regulations involved in lunar dust-induced prolonged proflammatory response and toxicity. The data presented in this study, for the first time, explores the molecular mechanisms of lunar dust induced toxicity. This work contributes not only to the risk assessment for future space exploration, but also to the understanding of the dust-induced toxicity to humans on earth.

How will climate change pathways and mitigation options alter incidence of vector-borne diseases? A framework for leishmaniasis in South and Meso-America

PubMed Central

Masante, Dario; Golding, Nicholas; Pigott, David; Day, John C.; Ibañez-Bernal, Sergio; Kolb, Melanie; Jones, Laurence

2017-01-01

The enormous global burden of vector-borne diseases disproportionately affects poor people in tropical, developing countries. Changes in vector-borne disease impacts are often linked to human modification of ecosystems as well as climate change. For tropical ecosystems, the health impacts of future environmental and developmental policy depend on how vector-borne disease risks trade off against other ecosystem services across heterogeneous landscapes. By linking future socio-economic and climate change pathways to dynamic land use models, this study is amongst the first to analyse and project impacts of both land use and climate change on continental-scale patterns in vector-borne diseases. Models were developed for cutaneous and visceral leishmaniasis in the Americas—ecologically complex sand fly borne infections linked to tropical forests and diverse wild and domestic mammal hosts. Both diseases were hypothesised to increase with available interface habitat between forest and agricultural or domestic habitats and with mammal biodiversity. However, landscape edge metrics were not important as predictors of leishmaniasis. Models including mammal richness were similar in accuracy and predicted disease extent to models containing only climate and land use predictors. Overall, climatic factors explained 80% and land use factors only 20% of the variance in past disease patterns. Both diseases, but especially cutaneous leishmaniasis, were associated with low seasonality in temperature and precipitation. Since such seasonality increases under future climate change, particularly under strong climate forcing, both diseases were predicted to contract in geographical extent to 2050, with cutaneous leishmaniasis contracting by between 35% and 50%. Whilst visceral leishmaniasis contracted slightly more under strong than weak management for carbon, biodiversity and ecosystem services, future cutaneous leishmaniasis extent was relatively insensitive to future alternative socio-economic pathways. Models parameterised at narrower geographical scales may be more sensitive to land use pattern and project more substantial changes in disease extent under future alternative socio-economic pathways. PMID:29020041

How will climate change pathways and mitigation options alter incidence of vector-borne diseases? A framework for leishmaniasis in South and Meso-America.

PubMed

Purse, Bethan V; Masante, Dario; Golding, Nicholas; Pigott, David; Day, John C; Ibañez-Bernal, Sergio; Kolb, Melanie; Jones, Laurence

2017-01-01

The enormous global burden of vector-borne diseases disproportionately affects poor people in tropical, developing countries. Changes in vector-borne disease impacts are often linked to human modification of ecosystems as well as climate change. For tropical ecosystems, the health impacts of future environmental and developmental policy depend on how vector-borne disease risks trade off against other ecosystem services across heterogeneous landscapes. By linking future socio-economic and climate change pathways to dynamic land use models, this study is amongst the first to analyse and project impacts of both land use and climate change on continental-scale patterns in vector-borne diseases. Models were developed for cutaneous and visceral leishmaniasis in the Americas-ecologically complex sand fly borne infections linked to tropical forests and diverse wild and domestic mammal hosts. Both diseases were hypothesised to increase with available interface habitat between forest and agricultural or domestic habitats and with mammal biodiversity. However, landscape edge metrics were not important as predictors of leishmaniasis. Models including mammal richness were similar in accuracy and predicted disease extent to models containing only climate and land use predictors. Overall, climatic factors explained 80% and land use factors only 20% of the variance in past disease patterns. Both diseases, but especially cutaneous leishmaniasis, were associated with low seasonality in temperature and precipitation. Since such seasonality increases under future climate change, particularly under strong climate forcing, both diseases were predicted to contract in geographical extent to 2050, with cutaneous leishmaniasis contracting by between 35% and 50%. Whilst visceral leishmaniasis contracted slightly more under strong than weak management for carbon, biodiversity and ecosystem services, future cutaneous leishmaniasis extent was relatively insensitive to future alternative socio-economic pathways. Models parameterised at narrower geographical scales may be more sensitive to land use pattern and project more substantial changes in disease extent under future alternative socio-economic pathways.

Extending the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways for sub-national impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability studies

DOE PAGES

Absar, Syeda Mariya; Preston, Benjamin L.

2015-05-25

The exploration of alternative socioeconomic futures is an important aspect of understanding the potential consequences of climate change. While socioeconomic scenarios are common and, at times essential, tools for the impact, adaptation and vulnerability and integrated assessment modeling research communities, their approaches to scenario development have historically been quite distinct. However, increasing convergence of impact, adaptation and vulnerability and integrated assessment modeling research in terms of scales of analysis suggests there may be value in the development of a common framework for socioeconomic scenarios. The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways represents an opportunity for the development of such a common framework. However,more » the scales at which these global storylines have been developed are largely incommensurate with the sub-national scales at which impact, adaptation and vulnerability, and increasingly integrated assessment modeling, studies are conducted. Our objective for this study was to develop sub-national and sectoral extensions of the global SSP storylines in order to identify future socioeconomic challenges for adaptation for the U.S. Southeast. A set of nested qualitative socioeconomic storyline elements, integrated storylines, and accompanying quantitative indicators were developed through an application of the Factor-Actor-Sector framework. Finally, in addition to revealing challenges and opportunities associated with the use of the SSPs as a basis for more refined scenario development, this study generated sub-national storyline elements and storylines that can subsequently be used to explore the implications of alternative subnational socioeconomic futures for the assessment of climate change impacts and adaptation.« less

Visualizing Alternative Phosphorus Scenarios for Future Food Security

PubMed Central

Neset, Tina-Simone; Cordell, Dana; Mohr, Steve; VanRiper, Froggi; White, Stuart

2016-01-01

The impact of global phosphorus scarcity on food security has increasingly been the focus of scientific studies over the past decade. However, systematic analyses of alternative futures for phosphorus supply and demand throughout the food system are still rare and provide limited inclusion of key stakeholders. Addressing global phosphorus scarcity requires an integrated approach exploring potential demand reduction as well as recycling opportunities. This implies recovering phosphorus from multiple sources, such as food waste, manure, and excreta, as well as exploring novel opportunities to reduce the long-term demand for phosphorus in food production such as changing diets. Presently, there is a lack of stakeholder and scientific consensus around priority measures. To therefore enable exploration of multiple pathways and facilitate a stakeholder dialog on the technical, behavioral, and institutional changes required to meet long-term future phosphorus demand, this paper introduces an interactive web-based tool, designed for visualizing global phosphorus scenarios in real time. The interactive global phosphorus scenario tool builds on several demand and supply side measures that can be selected and manipulated interactively by the user. It provides a platform to facilitate stakeholder dialog to plan for a soft landing and identify a suite of concrete priority options, such as investing in agricultural phosphorus use efficiency, or renewable fertilizers derived from phosphorus recovered from wastewater and food waste, to determine how phosphorus demand to meet future food security could be attained on a global scale in 2040 and 2070. This paper presents four example scenarios, including (1) the potential of full recovery of human excreta, (2) the challenge of a potential increase in non-food phosphorus demand, (3) the potential of decreased animal product consumption, and (4) the potential decrease in phosphorus demand from increased efficiency and yield gains in crop and livestock systems. PMID:27840814

Visualizing Alternative Phosphorus Scenarios for Future Food Security.

PubMed

Neset, Tina-Simone; Cordell, Dana; Mohr, Steve; VanRiper, Froggi; White, Stuart

2016-01-01

The impact of global phosphorus scarcity on food security has increasingly been the focus of scientific studies over the past decade. However, systematic analyses of alternative futures for phosphorus supply and demand throughout the food system are still rare and provide limited inclusion of key stakeholders. Addressing global phosphorus scarcity requires an integrated approach exploring potential demand reduction as well as recycling opportunities. This implies recovering phosphorus from multiple sources, such as food waste, manure, and excreta, as well as exploring novel opportunities to reduce the long-term demand for phosphorus in food production such as changing diets. Presently, there is a lack of stakeholder and scientific consensus around priority measures. To therefore enable exploration of multiple pathways and facilitate a stakeholder dialog on the technical, behavioral, and institutional changes required to meet long-term future phosphorus demand, this paper introduces an interactive web-based tool, designed for visualizing global phosphorus scenarios in real time. The interactive global phosphorus scenario tool builds on several demand and supply side measures that can be selected and manipulated interactively by the user. It provides a platform to facilitate stakeholder dialog to plan for a soft landing and identify a suite of concrete priority options, such as investing in agricultural phosphorus use efficiency, or renewable fertilizers derived from phosphorus recovered from wastewater and food waste, to determine how phosphorus demand to meet future food security could be attained on a global scale in 2040 and 2070. This paper presents four example scenarios, including (1) the potential of full recovery of human excreta, (2) the challenge of a potential increase in non-food phosphorus demand, (3) the potential of decreased animal product consumption, and (4) the potential decrease in phosphorus demand from increased efficiency and yield gains in crop and livestock systems.

Study of Regional Downscaled Climate and Air Quality in the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Y.; Fu, J. S.; Drake, J.; Lamarque, J.; Lam, Y.; Huang, K.

2011-12-01

Due to the increasing anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, the global and regional climate patterns have significantly changed. Climate change has exerted strong impact on ecosystem, air quality and human life. The global model Community Earth System Model (CESM v1.0) was used to predict future climate and chemistry under projected emission scenarios. Two new emission scenarios, Representative Community Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5, were used in this study for climate and chemistry simulations. The projected global mean temperature will increase 1.2 and 1.7 degree Celcius for the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios in 2050s, respectively. In order to take advantage of local detailed topography, land use data and conduct local climate impact on air quality, we downscaled CESM outputs to 4 km by 4 km Eastern US domain using Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model and Community Multi-scale Air Quality modeling system (CMAQ). The evaluations between regional model outputs and global model outputs, regional model outputs and observational data were conducted to verify the downscaled methodology. Future climate change and air quality impact were also examined on a 4 km by 4 km high resolution scale.

Assessing recent and near-future changes in Southern California's groundwater storage from the perspective of regional climate modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Sales, F.; Rother, D.

2017-12-01

Current climate change assessments project an increase in temperature throughout the western U.S. over the next century, while precipitation is projected to decrease in the Southwest. These assessments are based mainly on coarse spatial resolution general circulation model (GCM) simulations, which do not include groundwater (soil and aquifer) storage projections. However, water availability is a regionally variable resource and climate change impacts on groundwater distribution will probably differ regionally across the southwestern U.S. We have implemented a coupled atmosphere-biosphere-aquifer regional modelling system (WRF/SSiB2/SIMGM) to generate recent (2005-2017) and near-future (2018-2030) high-resolution groundwater projections for Southern California. These projections are obtained by dynamic downscaling data from the Global Operation Analysis (recent) and the NCAR Community Earth System Model CMIP5 global projections (near future), which supported the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 5th Assessment Report. Near-future simulations include three representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios namely, RCP4.5, RCP6, and RCP8.5. The model can reasonably simulate the recent changes in Southern California's groundwater as indicated by a comparison to terrestrial water storage obtained from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment dataset. In particular, the 2011-2017 drought is simulated well with total groundwater storages declining throughout the period, especially along the western portion of the domain, which includes the high-populated areas of western Los Angeles, San Diego, Ventura and Orange counties. In general, the near-future simulations show a decline in groundwater storage for the region. The largest changes are observed with the RCP8.5 emission pathway, towards to southeastern tier of the study area. In addition to groundwater, this downscaling experiment also generates high-resolution precipitation and temperature estimates, which can help policy makers in the development of strategies to alleviate potential water resource deficiencies in California in the near future.

Going with the flow: the role of ocean circulation in global marine ecosystems under a changing climate.

PubMed

van Gennip, Simon J; Popova, Ekaterina E; Yool, Andrew; Pecl, Gretta T; Hobday, Alistair J; Sorte, Cascade J B

2017-07-01

Ocean warming, acidification, deoxygenation and reduced productivity are widely considered to be the major stressors to ocean ecosystems induced by emissions of CO 2 . However, an overlooked stressor is the change in ocean circulation in response to climate change. Strong changes in the intensity and position of the western boundary currents have already been observed, and the consequences of such changes for ecosystems are beginning to emerge. In this study, we address climatically induced changes in ocean circulation on a global scale but relevant to propagule dispersal for species inhabiting global shelf ecosystems, using a high-resolution global ocean model run under the IPCC RCP 8.5 scenario. The ¼ degree model resolution allows improved regional realism of the ocean circulation beyond that of available CMIP5-class models. We use a Lagrangian approach forced by modelled ocean circulation to simulate the circulation pathways that disperse planktonic life stages. Based on trajectory backtracking, we identify present-day coastal retention, dominant flow and dispersal range for coastal regions at the global scale. Projecting into the future, we identify areas of the strongest projected circulation change and present regional examples with the most significant modifications in their dominant pathways. Climatically induced changes in ocean circulation should be considered as an additional stressor of marine ecosystems in a similar way to ocean warming or acidification. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The impact of half-a-degree Celsius upon the spatial pattern of future sea-level change.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jackson, Luke

2017-04-01

It has been shown that the global thermal expansion of sea level and ocean dynamics are linearly related to global temperature change. On this basis one can estimate the difference in local sea-level change between a 1.5°C and 2.0°C world. The mitigation scenario RCP 2.6 shows an end-of-century global temperature range of 0.9 to 2.3°C (median 1.6°C). Additional sea-level components, such as mass changes in ice sheets, glaciers and land-water storage have unique spatial patterns that contribute to sea-level change and will be indirectly affected by global temperature change. We project local sea-level change for RCP 2.6 using sub-sets of models in the CMIP5 archive that follow different global temperature pathways. The method used to calculate local sea-level change is probabilistic and combines the normalised spatial patterns of sea-level components with global average projections of individual sea-level components.

A novel dysregulated pathway-identification analysis based on global influence of within-pathway effects and crosstalk between pathways

PubMed Central

Han, Junwei; Li, Chunquan; Yang, Haixiu; Xu, Yanjun; Zhang, Chunlong; Ma, Jiquan; Shi, Xinrui; Liu, Wei; Shang, Desi; Yao, Qianlan; Zhang, Yunpeng; Su, Fei; Feng, Li; Li, Xia

2015-01-01

Identifying dysregulated pathways from high-throughput experimental data in order to infer underlying biological insights is an important task. Current pathway-identification methods focus on single pathways in isolation; however, consideration of crosstalk between pathways could improve our understanding of alterations in biological states. We propose a novel method of pathway analysis based on global influence (PAGI) to identify dysregulated pathways, by considering both within-pathway effects and crosstalk between pathways. We constructed a global gene–gene network based on the relationships among genes extracted from a pathway database. We then evaluated the extent of differential expression for each gene, and mapped them to the global network. The random walk with restart algorithm was used to calculate the extent of genes affected by global influence. Finally, we used cumulative distribution functions to determine the significance values of the dysregulated pathways. We applied the PAGI method to five cancer microarray datasets, and compared our results with gene set enrichment analysis and five other methods. Based on these analyses, we demonstrated that PAGI can effectively identify dysregulated pathways associated with cancer, with strong reproducibility and robustness. We implemented PAGI using the freely available R-based and Web-based tools (http://bioinfo.hrbmu.edu.cn/PAGI). PMID:25551156

Global energy consumption for direct water use

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Y.; Hejazi, M. I.; Kim, S. H.; Kyle, P.; Davies, E. G.; Miralles, D. G.; Teuling, R.; He, Y.; Niyogi, D.

2015-12-01

Despite significant efforts to quantify the mutual inter-dependence of the water and energy sectors, global energy for water (EFW) remains poorly understood, resulting in biases in energy accounting that directly affect water and energy management and policy. We firstly evaluate the global energy consumption for direct water use from 1973 to 2012 with sectoral, regional and process-level details. Over the 40-year period, we detected multiple shifts in EFW by county and region. For example, we find that India, the Middle East and China have surpassed the United States as the three largest consumers of EFW since 2003, mostly because of rapid growth in groundwater-based irrigation, desalination, and industrial and municipal water use, respectively. Globally, EFW accounts for 1-3% of total primary energy consumption in 2010, of which 52% is surface water, 36% is groundwater, and 12% is non-fresh water. The sectoral allocation of EFW includes municipal (45%), industrial (29%), and agricultural use (26%), and process-level contributions are from source/conveyance (41%), water purification (19%), water distribution (13%) and wastewater treatment (22%). Our evaluation suggests that the EFW may increase in importance in the future due to growth in population and income, and depletion of surface and shallow aquifer water resources in water-scarce regions. We are incorporating this element into an integrated assessment model (IAM) and linking it back to energy balance within that IAM. By doing this, we will then explore the impacts of EFW on the global energy market (e.g., changes in the share of groundwater use and desalination), and the uncertainty of future EFW under different shared social pathway (SSP) and representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios, and consequences on the emission of greenhouse gases as well. We expect these EFW induced impacts will be considerable, and will then have significant implications for adaptive management and policy making.

Effect of climate change on shoreline shifts at a straight and continuous coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rajasree, B. R.; Deo, M. C.; Sheela Nair, L.

2016-12-01

The prediction of the rate of shoreline shifts as well as that of erosion and accretion over future at a given location is traditionally done on the basis of analysis of past wave data. However under the changing climate affected by global warming it is better done considering the projected wave conditions over the future. The same is demonstrated in this work with respect to a stretch of coastline at 'Udupi' along the west coast of India. The shoreline changes in the past are first determined with the help of historic satellite images. A numerical shoreline model is later run on the basis of wave simulations of past 35 years as well as future 35 years. The latter wave conditions are obtained from wind projections corresponding to a high resolution regional climate model run for a moderate pathway of global warming. Alternatively prediction of the changes over future 35 years is also made by using the soft computing tool of artificial neural network (ANN) trained with the help of past satellite images. The results indicate that the area under consideration presently undergoes considerable erosion and this process will accelerate in future. The volume of annual sediment transport will also substantially increase over the future. The alternative computations made with the help of an ANN confirmed the future rising trend of erosion, albeit at smaller rate than the numerically predicted one.

Global and regional health effects of future food production under climate change: a modelling study.

PubMed

Springmann, Marco; Mason-D'Croz, Daniel; Robinson, Sherman; Garnett, Tara; Godfray, H Charles J; Gollin, Douglas; Rayner, Mike; Ballon, Paola; Scarborough, Peter

2016-05-07

One of the most important consequences of climate change could be its effects on agriculture. Although much research has focused on questions of food security, less has been devoted to assessing the wider health impacts of future changes in agricultural production. In this modelling study, we estimate excess mortality attributable to agriculturally mediated changes in dietary and weight-related risk factors by cause of death for 155 world regions in the year 2050. For this modelling study, we linked a detailed agricultural modelling framework, the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT), to a comparative risk assessment of changes in fruit and vegetable consumption, red meat consumption, and bodyweight for deaths from coronary heart disease, stroke, cancer, and an aggregate of other causes. We calculated the change in the number of deaths attributable to climate-related changes in weight and diets for the combination of four emissions pathways (a high emissions pathway, two medium emissions pathways, and a low emissions pathway) and three socioeconomic pathways (sustainable development, middle of the road, and more fragmented development), which each included six scenarios with variable climatic inputs. The model projects that by 2050, climate change will lead to per-person reductions of 3·2% (SD 0·4%) in global food availability, 4·0% (0·7%) in fruit and vegetable consumption, and 0·7% (0·1%) in red meat consumption. These changes will be associated with 529,000 climate-related deaths worldwide (95% CI 314,000-736,000), representing a 28% (95% CI 26-33) reduction in the number of deaths that would be avoided because of changes in dietary and weight-related risk factors between 2010 and 2050. Twice as many climate-related deaths were associated with reductions in fruit and vegetable consumption than with climate-related increases in the prevalence of underweight, and most climate-related deaths were projected to occur in south and east Asia. Adoption of climate-stabilisation pathways would reduce the number of climate-related deaths by 29-71%, depending on their stringency. The health effects of climate change from changes in dietary and weight-related risk factors could be substantial, and exceed other climate-related health impacts that have been estimated. Climate change mitigation could prevent many climate-related deaths. Strengthening of public health programmes aimed at preventing and treating diet and weight-related risk factors could be a suitable climate change adaptation strategy. Oxford Martin Programme on the Future of Food. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Diatoms: a fossil fuel of the future.

PubMed

Levitan, Orly; Dinamarca, Jorge; Hochman, Gal; Falkowski, Paul G

2014-03-01

Long-term global climate change, caused by burning petroleum and other fossil fuels, has motivated an urgent need to develop renewable, carbon-neutral, economically viable alternatives to displace petroleum using existing infrastructure. Algal feedstocks are promising candidate replacements as a 'drop-in' fuel. Here, we focus on a specific algal taxon, diatoms, to become the fossil fuel of the future. We summarize past attempts to obtain suitable diatom strains, propose future directions for their genetic manipulation, and offer biotechnological pathways to improve yield. We calculate that the yields obtained by using diatoms as a production platform are theoretically sufficient to satisfy the total oil consumption of the US, using between 3 and 5% of its land area. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The impact of past and future climate change on global human mortality due to ozone and PM2.5 outdoor air pollution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silva, R.; West, J.; Anenberg, S.; Lamarque, J.; Shindell, D. T.; Bergmann, D. J.; Berntsen, T.; Cameron-Smith, P. J.; Collins, B.; Ghan, S. J.; Josse, B.; Nagashima, T.; Naik, V.; Plummer, D.; Rodriguez, J. M.; Szopa, S.; Zeng, G.

2012-12-01

Climate change can adversely affect air quality, through changes in meteorology, atmospheric chemistry, and emissions. Future changes in air pollutant emissions will also profoundly influence air quality. These changes in air quality can affect human health, as exposure to ground-level ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) has been associated with premature human mortality. Here we will quantify the global mortality impacts of past and future climate change, considering the effects of climate change on air quality isolated from emission changes. The Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP) has simulated the past and future surface concentrations of ozone and PM2.5 from each of several GCMs, for emissions from 1850 ("preindustrial") to 2000 ("present-day"), and for the IPCC AR5 Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios to 2100. We will use ozone and PM2.5 concentrations from simulations from five or more global models of atmospheric dynamics and chemistry, for a base year (present-day), pre-industrial conditions, and future scenarios, considering changes in climate and emissions. We will assess the mortality impacts of past climate change by using one simulation ensemble with present emissions and climate and one with present emissions but 1850 climate. We will similarly quantify the potential impacts of future climate change under the four RCP scenarios in 2030, 2050 and 2100. All model outputs will be regridded to the same resolution to estimate multi-model medians and range in each grid cell. Resulting premature deaths will be calculated using these medians along with epidemiologically-derived concentration-response functions, and present-day or future projections of population and baseline mortality rates, considering aging and transitioning disease rates over time. The spatial distributions of current and future global premature mortalities due to ozone and PM2.5 outdoor air pollution will be presented separately. These results will strengthen our understanding of the impacts of climate change today, and in future years considering different plausible scenarios.

Abiotic mechanism for the formation of atmospheric nitrous oxide from ammonium nitrate.

PubMed

Rubasinghege, Gayan; Spak, Scott N; Stanier, Charles O; Carmichael, Gregory R; Grassian, Vicki H

2011-04-01

Nitrous oxide (N2O) is an important greenhouse gas and a primary cause of stratospheric ozone destruction. Despite its importance, there remain missing sources in the N2O budget. Here we report the formation of atmospheric nitrous oxide from the decomposition of ammonium nitrate via an abiotic mechanism that is favorable in the presence of light, relative humidity and a surface. This source of N2O is not currently accounted for in the global N2O budget. Annual production of N2O from atmospheric aerosols and surface fertilizer application over the continental United States from this abiotic pathway is estimated from results of an annual chemical transport simulation with the Community Multiscale Air Quality model (CMAQ). This pathway is projected to produce 9.3(+0.7/-5.3) Gg N2O annually over North America. N2O production by this mechanism is expected globally from both megacities and agricultural areas and may become more important under future projected changes in anthropogenic emissions.

Shifts of regional hydro-climatic regimes in the warmer future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, H.; Morishita, S.

2016-12-01

It is well known that the global climate is projected to be significantly warmer than pre-industrial period, and, in 2015, it was indicated as 1-degreen increase of global mean temperature that was unprecedented previously. Human-induced additional radiative forcing causes global and regional mean temperature increase and alters energy and water partitioning in the heterogeneous pathway. Budyko proposed a conceptual equation to estimate a climate-induced dryness relating available energy and precipitation, and it has been used broadly in hydrology communities to determine regional hydro-climatic characteristics. In this study, a diagnosis framework is proposed to traced how the regional hydro-climatic regimes are shifted under the warming condition with 4 °C increase of global mean temperature. A database for Policy Decision making for Future climate change (d4PDF) based on a super-ensemble AMIP-style experiment (11,400 model years, totally) with sea surface temperature patterns extracted from six CMIP5 models is used to estimate the probability distribution of the regime shifts maximizing signal-to-noise. It was found that the global future hydro-climate condition shifts slightly to more humid condition comparing to the historical condition, since the increase of precipitation is greater and the increate of net radiation, globally. Very humid regions including tropics and semi-arid regions tend to expand, and Semi-humid and arid-regions tend to shrink. Although the change of global mean state between historical and future climate is not considerable, temporal variability under the warming climate is amplified significantly, and it induces more frequent occurrence of once-in-a-century level drought over large terrestrial regions including Africa, South America, East and Central Asia, Australia, and United States. This analysis will be extended up to the availability (expected as October 2016) of a similar database being produced under the Half a degree Additional warming, Projections, Prognosis and Impacts (HAPPI) project following the Paris Agreement, 2015, to aim to limit the increase in global average temperature to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.

Impact of climate change on global malaria distribution.

PubMed

Caminade, Cyril; Kovats, Sari; Rocklov, Joacim; Tompkins, Adrian M; Morse, Andrew P; Colón-González, Felipe J; Stenlund, Hans; Martens, Pim; Lloyd, Simon J

2014-03-04

Malaria is an important disease that has a global distribution and significant health burden. The spatial limits of its distribution and seasonal activity are sensitive to climate factors, as well as the local capacity to control the disease. Malaria is also one of the few health outcomes that has been modeled by more than one research group and can therefore facilitate the first model intercomparison for health impacts under a future with climate change. We used bias-corrected temperature and rainfall simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate models to compare the metrics of five statistical and dynamical malaria impact models for three future time periods (2030s, 2050s, and 2080s). We evaluated three malaria outcome metrics at global and regional levels: climate suitability, additional population at risk and additional person-months at risk across the model outputs. The malaria projections were based on five different global climate models, each run under four emission scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways, RCPs) and a single population projection. We also investigated the modeling uncertainty associated with future projections of populations at risk for malaria owing to climate change. Our findings show an overall global net increase in climate suitability and a net increase in the population at risk, but with large uncertainties. The model outputs indicate a net increase in the annual person-months at risk when comparing from RCP2.6 to RCP8.5 from the 2050s to the 2080s. The malaria outcome metrics were highly sensitive to the choice of malaria impact model, especially over the epidemic fringes of the malaria distribution.

Impact of climate change on global malaria distribution

PubMed Central

Caminade, Cyril; Kovats, Sari; Rocklov, Joacim; Tompkins, Adrian M.; Morse, Andrew P.; Colón-González, Felipe J.; Stenlund, Hans; Martens, Pim; Lloyd, Simon J.

2014-01-01

Malaria is an important disease that has a global distribution and significant health burden. The spatial limits of its distribution and seasonal activity are sensitive to climate factors, as well as the local capacity to control the disease. Malaria is also one of the few health outcomes that has been modeled by more than one research group and can therefore facilitate the first model intercomparison for health impacts under a future with climate change. We used bias-corrected temperature and rainfall simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate models to compare the metrics of five statistical and dynamical malaria impact models for three future time periods (2030s, 2050s, and 2080s). We evaluated three malaria outcome metrics at global and regional levels: climate suitability, additional population at risk and additional person-months at risk across the model outputs. The malaria projections were based on five different global climate models, each run under four emission scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways, RCPs) and a single population projection. We also investigated the modeling uncertainty associated with future projections of populations at risk for malaria owing to climate change. Our findings show an overall global net increase in climate suitability and a net increase in the population at risk, but with large uncertainties. The model outputs indicate a net increase in the annual person-months at risk when comparing from RCP2.6 to RCP8.5 from the 2050s to the 2080s. The malaria outcome metrics were highly sensitive to the choice of malaria impact model, especially over the epidemic fringes of the malaria distribution. PMID:24596427

Power Systems of the Future: A 21st Century Power Partnership Thought Leadership Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zinaman, Owen; Miller, Mackay; Adil, Ali

This report summarizes key forces driving transformation in the power sector around the world, presents a framework for evaluating decisions regarding extent and pace of change, and defines pathways for transformation. Powerful trends in technology, policy environments, financing, and business models are driving change in power sectors globally. In light of these trends, the question is no longer whether power systems will be transformed, but rather how these transformations will occur. Three approaches to policy and technology decision-making can guide these transformations: adaptive, reconstructive, and evolutionary. Within these approaches, we explore the five pathways that have emerged as viable modelsmore » for power system transformation.« less

U.S. Government Supports Low Emission Economic Growth (Fact Sheet)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Watson, A.; Sandor, D.; Butheau, M.

Countries around the world face the challenge of maintaining long-term sustainable economic growth and development under the threat of climate change. By identifying and pursuing a sustainable development pathway now, they are better positioned to reach their economic growth goals while addressing climate change impacts and lowering greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Low emission development strategies - development plans that promote sustainable social and economic development while reducing long-term GHG emissions - provide a pathway to preparing for a global low emission future. Partner country governments are working with the U.S. government through the Enhancing Capacity for Low Emission Development Strategiesmore » (EC-LEDS) program to further their national development objectives.« less

U.S. Government Supports Low Emission Economic Growth

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Countries around the world face the challenge of maintaining long-term sustainable economic growth and development under the threat of climate change. By identifying and pursuing a sustainable development pathway now, they are better positioned to reach their economic growth goals while addressing climate change impacts and lowering greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Low emission development strategies - development plans that promote sustainable social and economic development while reducing long-term GHG emissions - provide a pathway to preparing for a global low emission future. Partner country governments are working with the U.S. government through the Enhancing Capacity for Low Emission Development Strategiesmore » (EC-LEDS) program to further their national development objectives.« less

Do differences in future sulfate emission pathways matter for near-term climate? A case study for the Asian monsoon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bartlett, Rachel E.; Bollasina, Massimo A.; Booth, Ben B. B.; Dunstone, Nick J.; Marenco, Franco; Messori, Gabriele; Bernie, Dan J.

2018-03-01

Anthropogenic aerosols could dominate over greenhouse gases in driving near-term hydroclimate change, especially in regions with high present-day aerosol loading such as Asia. Uncertainties in near-future aerosol emissions represent a potentially large, yet unexplored, source of ambiguity in climate projections for the coming decades. We investigated the near-term sensitivity of the Asian summer monsoon to aerosols by means of transient modelling experiments using HadGEM2-ES under two existing climate change mitigation scenarios selected to have similar greenhouse gas forcing, but to span a wide range of plausible global sulfur dioxide emissions. Increased sulfate aerosols, predominantly from East Asian sources, lead to large regional dimming through aerosol-radiation and aerosol-cloud interactions. This results in surface cooling and anomalous anticyclonic flow over land, while abating the western Pacific subtropical high. The East Asian monsoon circulation weakens and precipitation stagnates over Indochina, resembling the observed southern-flood-northern-drought pattern over China. Large-scale circulation adjustments drive suppression of the South Asian monsoon and a westward extension of the Maritime Continent convective region. Remote impacts across the Northern Hemisphere are also generated, including a northwestward shift of West African monsoon rainfall induced by the westward displacement of the Indian Ocean Walker cell, and temperature anomalies in northern midlatitudes linked to propagation of Rossby waves from East Asia. These results indicate that aerosol emissions are a key source of uncertainty in near-term projection of regional and global climate; a careful examination of the uncertainties associated with aerosol pathways in future climate assessments must be highly prioritised.

Genome-Wide Methylation Analyses in Glioblastoma Multiforme

PubMed Central

Lai, Rose K.; Chen, Yanwen; Guan, Xiaowei; Nousome, Darryl; Sharma, Charu; Canoll, Peter; Bruce, Jeffrey; Sloan, Andrew E.; Cortes, Etty; Vonsattel, Jean-Paul; Su, Tao; Delgado-Cruzata, Lissette; Gurvich, Irina; Santella, Regina M.; Ostrom, Quinn; Lee, Annette; Gregersen, Peter; Barnholtz-Sloan, Jill

2014-01-01

Few studies had investigated genome-wide methylation in glioblastoma multiforme (GBM). Our goals were to study differential methylation across the genome in gene promoters using an array-based method, as well as repetitive elements using surrogate global methylation markers. The discovery sample set for this study consisted of 54 GBM from Columbia University and Case Western Reserve University, and 24 brain controls from the New York Brain Bank. We assembled a validation dataset using methylation data of 162 TCGA GBM and 140 brain controls from dbGAP. HumanMethylation27 Analysis Bead-Chips (Illumina) were used to interrogate 26,486 informative CpG sites in both the discovery and validation datasets. Global methylation levels were assessed by analysis of L1 retrotransposon (LINE1), 5 methyl-deoxycytidine (5m-dC) and 5 hydroxylmethyl-deoxycytidine (5hm-dC) in the discovery dataset. We validated a total of 1548 CpG sites (1307 genes) that were differentially methylated in GBM compared to controls. There were more than twice as many hypomethylated genes as hypermethylated ones. Both the discovery and validation datasets found 5 tumor methylation classes. Pathway analyses showed that the top ten pathways in hypomethylated genes were all related to functions of innate and acquired immunities. Among hypermethylated pathways, transcriptional regulatory network in embryonic stem cells was the most significant. In the study of global methylation markers, 5m-dC level was the best discriminant among methylation classes, whereas in survival analyses, high level of LINE1 methylation was an independent, favorable prognostic factor in the discovery dataset. Based on a pathway approach, hypermethylation in genes that control stem cell differentiation were significant, poor prognostic factors of overall survival in both the discovery and validation datasets. Approaches that targeted these methylated genes may be a future therapeutic goal. PMID:24586730

Climate Change driven evolution of hazards to Europe's transport infrastructure throughout the twenty-first century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matulla, Christoph; Hollósi, Brigitta; Andre, Konrad; Gringinger, Julia; Chimani, Barbara; Namyslo, Joachim; Fuchs, Tobias; Auerbach, Markus; Herrmann, Carina; Sladek, Brigitte; Berghold, Heimo; Gschier, Roland; Eichinger-Vill, Eva

2017-06-01

Road authorities, freight, and logistic industries face a multitude of challenges in a world changing at an ever growing pace. While globalization, changes in technology, demography, and traffic, for instance, have received much attention over the bygone decades, climate change has not been treated with equal care until recently. However, since it has been recognized that climate change jeopardizes many business areas in transport, freight, and logistics, research programs investigating future threats have been initiated. One of these programs is the Conference of European Directors of Roads' (CEDR) Transnational Research Programme (TRP), which emerged about a decade ago from a cooperation between European National Road Authorities and the EU. This paper presents findings of a CEDR project called CliPDaR, which has been designed to answer questions from road authorities concerning climate-driven future threats to transport infrastructure. Pertaining results are based on two potential future socio-economic pathways of mankind (one strongly economically oriented "A2" and one more balanced scenario "A1B"), which are used to drive global climate models (GCMs) producing global and continental scale climate change projections. In order to achieve climate change projections, which are valid on regional scales, GCM projections are downscaled by regional climate models. Results shown here originate from research questions raised by European Road Authorities. They refer to future occurrence frequencies of severely cold winter seasons in Fennoscandia, to particularly hot summer seasons in the Iberian Peninsula and to changes in extreme weather phenomena triggering landslides and rutting in Central Europe. Future occurrence frequencies of extreme winter and summer conditions are investigated by empirical orthogonal function analyses of GCM projections driven with by A2 and A1B pathways. The analysis of future weather phenomena triggering landslides and rutting events requires downscaled climate change projections. Hence, corresponding results are based on an ensemble of RCM projections, which was available for the A1B scenario. All analyzed risks to transport infrastructure are found to increase over the decades ahead with accelerating pace towards the end of this century. Mean Fennoscandian winter temperatures by the end of this century may match conditions of rather warm winter season experienced in the past and particularly warm future winter temperatures have not been observed so far. This applies in an even more pronounced manner to summer seasons in the Iberian Peninsula. Occurrence frequencies of extreme climate phenomena triggering landslides and rutting events in Central Europe are also projected to rise. Results show spatially differentiated patterns and indicate accelerated rates of increases.

Global patterns of current and future road infrastructure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meijer, Johan R.; Huijbregts, Mark A. J.; Schotten, Kees C. G. J.; Schipper, Aafke M.

2018-06-01

Georeferenced information on road infrastructure is essential for spatial planning, socio-economic assessments and environmental impact analyses. Yet current global road maps are typically outdated or characterized by spatial bias in coverage. In the Global Roads Inventory Project we gathered, harmonized and integrated nearly 60 geospatial datasets on road infrastructure into a global roads dataset. The resulting dataset covers 222 countries and includes over 21 million km of roads, which is two to three times the total length in the currently best available country-based global roads datasets. We then related total road length per country to country area, population density, GDP and OECD membership, resulting in a regression model with adjusted R 2 of 0.90, and found that that the highest road densities are associated with densely populated and wealthier countries. Applying our regression model to future population densities and GDP estimates from the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios, we obtained a tentative estimate of 3.0–4.7 million km additional road length for the year 2050. Large increases in road length were projected for developing nations in some of the world’s last remaining wilderness areas, such as the Amazon, the Congo basin and New Guinea. This highlights the need for accurate spatial road datasets to underpin strategic spatial planning in order to reduce the impacts of roads in remaining pristine ecosystems.

Climate velocity and the future global redistribution of marine biodiversity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

García Molinos, Jorge; Halpern, Benjamin S.; Schoeman, David S.; Brown, Christopher J.; Kiessling, Wolfgang; Moore, Pippa J.; Pandolfi, John M.; Poloczanska, Elvira S.; Richardson, Anthony J.; Burrows, Michael T.

2016-01-01

Anticipating the effect of climate change on biodiversity, in particular on changes in community composition, is crucial for adaptive ecosystem management but remains a critical knowledge gap. Here, we use climate velocity trajectories, together with information on thermal tolerances and habitat preferences, to project changes in global patterns of marine species richness and community composition under IPCC Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. Our simple, intuitive approach emphasizes climate connectivity, and enables us to model over 12 times as many species as previous studies. We find that range expansions prevail over contractions for both RCPs up to 2100, producing a net local increase in richness globally, and temporal changes in composition, driven by the redistribution rather than the loss of diversity. Conversely, widespread invasions homogenize present-day communities across multiple regions. High extirpation rates are expected regionally (for example, Indo-Pacific), particularly under RCP8.5, leading to strong decreases in richness and the anticipated formation of no-analogue communities where invasions are common. The spatial congruence of these patterns with contemporary human impacts highlights potential areas of future conservation concern. These results strongly suggest that the millennial stability of current global marine diversity patterns, against which conservation plans are assessed, will change rapidly over the course of the century in response to ocean warming.

Group B Streptococcus vaccine development: present status and future considerations, with emphasis on perspectives for low and middle income countries

PubMed Central

Kobayashi, Miwako; Vekemans, Johan; Baker, Carol J.; Ratner, Adam J.; Le Doare, Kirsty; Schrag, Stephanie J.

2016-01-01

Globally, group B Streptococcus (GBS) remains the leading cause of sepsis and meningitis in young infants, with its greatest burden in the first 90 days of life. Intrapartum antibiotic prophylaxis (IAP) for women at risk of transmitting GBS to their newborns has been effective in reducing, but not eliminating, the young infant GBS disease burden in many high income countries. However, identification of women at risk and administration of IAP is very difficult in many low and middle income country (LMIC) settings, and is not possible for home deliveries. Immunization of pregnant women with a GBS vaccine represents an alternate pathway to protecting newborns from GBS disease, through the transplacental antibody transfer to the fetus in utero. This approach to prevent GBS disease in young infants is currently under development, and is approaching late stage clinical evaluation. This manuscript includes a review of the natural history of the disease, global disease burden estimates, diagnosis and existing control options in different settings, the biological rationale for a vaccine including previous supportive studies, analysis of current candidates in development, possible correlates of protection and current status of immunogenicity assays. Future potential vaccine development pathways to licensure and use in LMICs, trial design and implementation options are discussed, with the objective to provide a basis for reflection, rather than recommendations. PMID:27803803

Rapid Global River Flood Risk Assessment under Climate and Socioeconomic Scenarios: An Extreme Case of Eurasian region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kwak, Young-joo; Magome, Jun; Hasegawa, Akira; Iwami, Yoichi

2017-04-01

Causing widespread devastation with massive economic damage and loss of human lives, flood disasters hamper economic growth and accelerate poverty particularly in developing countries. Globally, this trend will likely continue due to increase in flood magnitude and lack of preparedness for extreme events. In line with risk reduction efforts since the early 21st century, the monitors and governors of global river floods should pay attention to international scientific and policy communities for support to facilitate evidence-based policy making with a special interest in long-term changes due to climate change and socio-economic effects. Although advanced hydrological inundation models and risk models have been developed to reveal flood risk, hazard, exposure, and vulnerability at a river basin, it is obviously hard to identify the distribution and locations of continent-level flood risk based on national-level data. Therefore, we propose a methodological possibility for rapid global flood risk assessment with the results from its application to the two periods, i.e., Present (from 1980 to 2004) and Future (from 2075 to 2099). The method is particularly designed to effectively simplify complexities of a hazard area by calculating the differential inundation depth using GFID2M (global flood inundation depth 2-dimension model), despite low data availability. In this research, we addressed the question of which parts in the Eurasian region (8E to 180E, 0N to 60N) can be found as high-risk areas in terms of exposed population and economy in case of a 50-year return period flood. Economic losses were estimated according to the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenario, and the flood scale was defined using the annual maximum daily river discharge under the extreme conditions of climate change simulated with MRI-AGCM3.2S based on the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP8.5) emissions scenario. As a preliminary result, the total potential economic loss in the Eurasian region was identified as an upward trend proportional to projected vulnerable population based on distributed data of global population (Landscan 2009 by the Oak Ridge National Laboratory) coupled with SSP Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita in the future. The differences between Present and Future in physical exposure and potential economic losses are projected to increase approximately 305 million affected people and approximately 3 % of the total GDP (US 2400 billion) potential damage, respectively, in terms of climate change and socioeconomic impacts.

The role stratification on Indian ocean mixing under global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Praveen, V.; Valsala, V.; Ravindran, A. M.

2017-12-01

The impact of changes in Indian ocean stratification on mixing under global warming is examined. Previous studies on global warming and associated weakening of winds reported to increase the stratification of the world ocean leading to a reduction in mixing, increased acidity, reduced oxygen and there by a reduction in productivity. However this processes is not uniform and are also modulated by changes in wind pattern of the future. Our study evaluate the role of stratification and surface fluxes on mixing focusing northern Indian ocean. A dynamical downscaling study using Regional ocean Modelling system (ROMS) forced with stratification and surface fluxes from selected CMIP5 models are presented. Results from an extensive set of historical and Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 (rcp8.5) scenario simulations are used to quantify the distinctive role of stratification on mixing.

A program in global biology. [biota-environment interaction important to life

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mooneyhan, D. W.

1983-01-01

NASA's Global Biology Research Program and its goals for greater understanding of planetary biological processes are discussed. Consideration is given to assessing major pathways and rates of exchange of elements such as carbon and nitrogen, extrapolating local rates of anaerobic activities, determining exchange rates of ocean nutrients, and developing models for the global cycles of carbon, nitrogen, sulfur, and phosphorus. Satellites and sensors operating today are covered: the Nimbus, NOAA, and Landsat series. Block diagrams of the software and hardware for a typical ground data processing and analysis system are provided. Samples of the surface cover data achieved with the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer, the Multispectral Scanner, and the Thematic Mapper are presented, as well as a productive capacity model for coastal wetlands. Finally, attention is given to future goals, their engineering requirements, and the necessary data analysis system.

Exploring hypertension genome-wide association studies findings and impact on pathophysiology, pathways, and pharmacogenetics.

PubMed

Cabrera, Claudia P; Ng, Fu Liang; Warren, Helen R; Barnes, Michael R; Munroe, Patricia B; Caulfield, Mark J

2015-01-01

Hypertension is a major risk factor for global mortality. Recent genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have led to successful identification of many genetic loci influencing blood pressure, although these studies account for less than 5% of heritability. While genetic discovery efforts continue, it is timely to pause and reflect on what information has been gained to date from reported loci. Knowledge from GWAS findings inform our understanding of the pathways and pleiotropy underpinning hypertension and aid in the identification of potential druggable targets. By reviewing blood pressure loci we aim to determine how much potential the current observations have for future clinical utility. The authors have declared no conflicts of interest for this article. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Global Assessment of Exploitable Surface Reservoir Storage under Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, L.; Parkinson, S.; Gidden, M.; Byers, E.; Satoh, Y.; Riahi, K.

2016-12-01

Surface water reservoirs provide us with reliable water supply systems, hydropower generation, flood control, and recreation services. Reliable reservoirs can be robust measures for water security and can help smooth out challenging seasonal variability of river flows. Yet, reservoirs also cause flow fragmentation in rivers and can lead to flooding of upstream areas, thereby displacing existing land-uses and ecosystems. The anticipated population growth, land use and climate change in many regions globally suggest a critical need to assess the potential for appropriate reservoir capacity that can balance rising demands with long-term water security. In this research, we assessed exploitable reservoir potential under climate change and human development constraints by deriving storage-yield relationships for 235 river basins globally. The storage-yield relationships map the amount of storage capacity required to meet a given water demand based on a 30-year inflow sequence. Runoff data is simulated with an ensemble of Global Hydrological Models (GHMs) for each of five bias-corrected general circulation models (GCMs) under four climate change pathways. These data are used to define future 30-year inflows in each river basin for time period between 2010 and 2080. The calculated capacity is then combined with geographical information of environmental and human development exclusion zones to further limit the storage capacity expansion potential in each basin. We investigated the reliability of reservoir potentials across different climate change scenarios and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) to identify river basins where reservoir expansion will be particularly challenging. Preliminary results suggest large disparities in reservoir potential across basins: some basins have already approached exploitable reserves, while some others display abundant potential. Exclusions zones pose significant impact on the amount of actual exploitable storage and firm yields worldwide: 30% of reservoir potential would be unavailable because of land occupation by environmental and human development. Results from this study will help decision makers to understand the reliability of infrastructure systems particularly sensitive to future water availability.

Land Cover and Climate Change May Limit Invasiveness of Rhododendron ponticum in Wales.

PubMed

Manzoor, Syed A; Griffiths, Geoffrey; Iizuka, Kotaro; Lukac, Martin

2018-01-01

Invasive plant species represent a serious threat to biodiversity precipitating a sustained global effort to eradicate or at least control the spread of this phenomenon. Current distribution ranges of many invasive species are likely to be modified in the future by land cover and climate change. Thus, invasion management can be made more effective by forecasting the potential spread of invasive species. Rhododendron ponticum (L.) is an aggressive invasive species which appears well suited to western areas of the UK. We made use of MAXENT modeling environment to develop a current distribution model and to assess the likely effects of land cover and climatic conditions (LCCs) on the future distribution of this species in the Snowdonia National park in Wales. Six global circulation models (GCMs) and two representative concentration pathways (RCPs), together with a land cover simulation for 2050 were used to investigate species' response to future environmental conditions. Having considered a range of environmental variables as predictors and carried out the AICc-based model selection, we find that under all LCCs considered in this study, the range of R. ponticum in Wales is likely to contract in the future. Land cover and topographic variables were found to be the most important predictors of the distribution of R. ponticum . This information, together with maps indicating future distribution trends will aid the development of mitigation practices to control R. ponticum .

Enhancing a Person, Enhancing a Civilization: A Research Program at the Intersection of Bioethics, Future Studies, and Astrobiology.

PubMed

Ćirković, Milan M

2017-07-01

There are manifold intriguing issues located within largely unexplored borderlands of bioethics, future studies (including global risk analysis), and astrobiology. Human enhancement has for quite some time been among the foci of bioethical debates, but the same cannot be said about its global, transgenerational, and even cosmological consequences. In recent years, discussions of posthuman and, in general terms, postbiological civilization(s) have slowly gained a measure of academic respect, in parallel with the renewed interest in the entire field of future studies and the great strides made in understanding of the origin and evolution of life and intelligence in their widest, cosmic context. These developments promise much deeper synergic answers to questions regarding the long-term future of enhancement: how far can it go? Is human enhancement a further step toward building a true postbiological civilization? Should we actively participate and help shape this process? Is the future of humanity "typical" in the same Copernican sense as our location in space and time is typical in the galaxy, and if so, can we derive important insights about the evolutionary pathways of postbiological evolution from astrobiological and Search for ExtraTerrestrial Intelligence (SETI) studies? These and similar questions could be understood as parts of a possible unifying research program attempting to connect cultural and moral evolution with what we know and understand about their cosmological and biological counterparts.

Future Freshwater Stress on Small Islands: Population, Aridity and Global Warming Targets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karnauskas, K. B.; Schleussner, C. F.; Donnelly, J. P.; Anchukaitis, K. J.

2017-12-01

Small island developing states (SIDS) face multiple threats from anthropogenic climate change, including potential changes in freshwater resource availability. Future freshwater stress, including geographic and seasonal variability, has important implications for climate change adaptation scenarios for vulnerable human populations living on islands across the world ocean. Due to a mismatch in spatial scale between SIDS landforms and the horizontal resolution of global climate models (GCMs), SIDS are mostly unaccounted for in GCMs that are used to make future projections of global climate change and its regional impacts. Specific approaches are required to address this gap between broad-scale model projections and regional, policy-relevant outcomes. Here we apply a recently developed methodology to project future changes in aridity in combination with population projections associated with different shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) to evaluate overall changes in freshwater stress in SIDS at warming levels of 1.5°C and 2°C above pre-industrial levels. By accounting for evaporative demand a posteriori, we reveal a robust yet spatially variable tendency towards increasing aridity for 16 million people living on islands by mid-century. Although about half of the islands are projected to experience increased rainfall—predominantly in the deep tropics—projected changes in evaporation are more uniform, shifting the global distribution of changes in island freshwater balance towards greater aridity. In many cases, the magnitude of projected drying is comparable to the amplitude of the estimated observed interannual variability, with important consequences for extreme events. While we find that future population growth will dominate changes in projected freshwater stress especially towards the end of the century, projected changes in aridity are found to compound freshwater stress for the vast majority of SIDS. Particularly across the Caribbean region, a substantial fraction ( 25%) of the large overall freshwater stress projected under 2°C at 2030 can be avoided by limiting global warming to 1.5°C. Our findings add to a growing body of literature on the difference in climate impacts between 1.5°C and 2°C and underscore the need for regionally specific analysis.

The economic feasibility of seawater desalination over the global scale: assessment of the production cost development and national water price until 2050

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, L.; Yoshikawa, S.; Iseri, Y.; Kanae, S.

2016-12-01

As many countries are suffering water scarcity due to the climate change and human activities, seawater desalination using reverse osmosis (SWRO) has shown to be a progressively promising countermeasure to satisfy the growing water demand. Therefore, the economic feasibility assessment of SWRO will be beneficial for the potential investors and policy-makers of government. In present study, it have proposed a systematic method to evaluate the economic feasibility of implementing SWRO in 140 counties and further estimated the potential future diffusion of SWRO over global scale by 2050. To the purpose, two models has been separately developed to simulate the production cost of SWRO and conventional water price, which are identified as the critical economic factors for feasibility evaluation of SWRO. These two models were firstly applied to historical validation in which proven to be able to well simulate both these two economic factors, and then were applied globally for future simulation over the period of 2015-2050 under three socioeconomic scenarios, i.e. SSP (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways) 1-3. Basin on the estimated production cost and water price, the economic feasibility of adopting SWRO coupling with its future potentialities were carefully evaluated. As a result, it indicated that SWRO was expected to be cost-effectively adopted in more countries by 2050, especially in these developing countries. The significant potential diffusion of SWRO in countries was mainly attributed to both the diminishing production cost and the increasing conventional water price as a result of income growth globally in three SSPs scenarios.

Dependence of future mortality changes on global CO2 concentrations: A review.

PubMed

Lee, Jae Young; Choi, Hayoung; Kim, Ho

2018-05-01

The heterogeneity among previous studies of future mortality projections due to climate change has often hindered comparisons and syntheses of resulting impacts. To address this challenge, the present study introduced a novel method to normalize the results from projection studies according to different baseline and projection periods and climate scenarios, thereby facilitating comparison and synthesis. This study reviewed the 15 previous studies involving projected climate change-related mortality under Representative Concentration Pathways. To synthesize their results, we first reviewed the important study design elements that affected the reported results in previous studies. Then, we normalized the reported results by CO 2 concentration in order to eliminate the effects of the baseline period, projection period, and climate scenario choices. For twenty-five locations worldwide, the normalized percentage changes in temperature-attributable mortality per 100 ppm increase in global CO 2 concentrations ranged between 41.9% and 330%, whereas those of total mortality ranged between 0.3% and 4.8%. The normalization methods presented in this work will guide future studies to provide their results in a normalized format and facilitate research synthesis to reinforce our understanding on the risk of climate change. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Pace of shifts in climate regions increases with global temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahlstein, Irina; Daniel, John S.; Solomon, Susan

2013-08-01

Human-induced climate change causes significant changes in local climates, which in turn lead to changes in regional climate zones. Large shifts in the world distribution of Köppen-Geiger climate classifications by the end of this century have been projected. However, only a few studies have analysed the pace of these shifts in climate zones, and none has analysed whether the pace itself changes with increasing global mean temperature. In this study, pace refers to the rate at which climate zones change as a function of amount of global warming. Here we show that present climate projections suggest that the pace of shifting climate zones increases approximately linearly with increasing global temperature. Using the RCP8.5 emissions pathway, the pace nearly doubles by the end of this century and about 20% of all land area undergoes a change in its original climate. This implies that species will have increasingly less time to adapt to Köppen zone changes in the future, which is expected to increase the risk of extinction.

Understanding global tropospheric ozone and its impacts on human health

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

West, J. J.

2017-12-01

Ozone is an important air pollutant for human health, one that has proven difficult to manage locally, nationally, and globally. Here I will present research on global ozone and its impacts on human health, highlighting several studies from my lab over the past decade. I will discuss the drivers of global tropospheric ozone, and the importance of the equatorward shift of emissions over recent decades. I will review estimates of the global burden of ozone on premature mortality, the contributions of different emission sectors to that burden, estimates of how the ozone health burden will change in the future under the Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios, and estimates of the contribution of projected climate change to ozone-related deaths. I will also discuss the importance of the intercontinental transport of ozone, and of methane as a driver of global ozone, from the human health perspective. I will present estimates of trends in the ozone mortality burden in the United States since 1990. Finally, I will discuss our project currently underway to estimate global ozone concentrations at the surface based on data gathered by the Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report, combined statistically with atmospheric modeling results.

Changes in Benefits of Flood Protection Standard under Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lim, W. H.; Koirala, S.; Yamazaki, D.; Hirabayashi, Y.; Kanae, S.

2014-12-01

Understanding potential risk of river flooding under future climate scenarios might be helpful for developing risk management strategies (including mitigation, adaptation). Such analyses are typically performed at the macro scales (e.g., regional, global) where the climate model output could support (e.g., Hirabayashi et al., 2013, Arnell and Gosling, 2014). To understand the potential benefits of infrastructure upgrading as part of climate adaptation strategies, it is also informative to understand the potential impact of different flood protection standards (in terms of return periods) on global river flooding under climate change. In this study, we use a baseline period (forced by observed hydroclimate conditions) and CMIP5 model output (historic and future periods) to drive a global river routing model called CaMa-Flood (Yamazaki et al., 2011) and simulate the river water depth at a spatial resolution of 15 min x 15 min. From the simulated results of baseline period, we use the annual maxima river water depth to fit the Gumbel distribution and prepare the return period-flood risk relationship (involving population and GDP). From the simulated results of CMIP5 model, we also used the annual maxima river water depth to obtain the Gumbel distribution and then estimate the exceedance probability (historic and future periods). We apply the return period-flood risk relationship (above) to the exceedance probability and evaluate the potential risk of river flooding and changes in the benefits of flood protection standard (e.g., 100-year flood of the baseline period) from the past into the future (represented by the representative concentration pathways). In this presentation, we show our preliminary results. References: Arnell, N.W, Gosling, S., N., 2014. The impact of climate change on river flood risk at the global scale. Climatic Change 122: 127-140, doi: 10.1007/s10584-014-1084-5. Hirabayashi et al., 2013. Global flood risk under climate change. Nature Climate Change 3: 816-821, doi: 10.1038/nclimate1911. Yamazaki et al., 2011. A physically based description of floodplain inundation dynamics in a global river routing model. Water Resources Research 47, W04501, doi: 10.1029/2010wr009726.

Predicted Responses of Vegetation to Climate Change: A Global Analysis of Changes in Primary Productivity and Water Use Efficiency in the 21st Century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bernardes, S.

2016-12-01

Global coupled carbon-climate simulations show considerable variability in outputs for atmospheric and land fields over the 21st century. This variability includes changes in temperature and in the quantity and spatiotemporal distribution of precipitation for large regions on the planet. Studies have considered that reductions in water availability due to decreased precipitation and increased water demand by the atmosphere may negatively affect plant metabolism and reduce carbon uptake. Future increases in carbon dioxide concentrations are expected to affect those interactions and potentially offset reductions in productivity. It is uncertain how plants will adjust their water use efficiency (WUE, plant production per water loss by evapotranspiration) in response to changing environmental conditions. This work investigates predicted changes in WUE in the 21st century by analyzing an ensemble of Earth System Models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5), together with flux tower data and products derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor. Two representative concentration pathways were selected to describe possible climate futures (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Periods of analysis included 2006-2099 (predicted) and 1850-2005 (reference). Comparisons between modeled, flux and satellite data for IPCC SREX regions were used to address the significant intermodel variability observed for the CMIP5 ensemble (larger variability for RCP8.5, higher intermodel agreement in Southeast Asia, lower intermodel agreement in arid areas). Model skill was evaluated in support of model selection and the spatiotemporal analysis of changes in WUE. Global, regional and latitudinal distributions of departures of projected conditions in relation to historical values are presented for both concentration pathways. Results showed high model sensitivity to different concentration pathways and increase in GPP and WUE for most of the planet (increases consistently higher for RCP8.5). Higher increases in GPP and WUE are predicted to occur over higher latitudes in the northern hemisphere (boreal region), with WUE usually following GPP in changes. Decreases in productivity and WUE occur mostly in the tropics, affecting tropical forests in Central America and in the Amazon.

Framing international trade and chronic disease

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

There is an emerging evidence base that global trade is linked with the rise of chronic disease in many low and middle-income countries (LMICs). This linkage is associated, in part, with the global diffusion of unhealthy lifestyles and health damaging products posing a particular challenge to countries still facing high burdens of communicable disease. We developed a generic framework which depicts the determinants and pathways connecting global trade with chronic disease. We then applied this framework to three key risk factors for chronic disease: unhealthy diets, alcohol, and tobacco. This led to specific 'product pathways', which can be further refined and used by health policy-makers to engage with their country's trade policy-makers around health impacts of ongoing trade treaty negotiations, and by researchers to continue refining an evidence base on how global trade is affecting patterns of chronic disease. The prevention and treatment of chronic diseases is now rising on global policy agendas, highlighted by the UN Summit on Noncommunicable Diseases (September 2011). Briefs and declarations leading up to this Summit reference the role of globalization and trade in the spread of risk factors for these diseases, but emphasis is placed on interventions to change health behaviours and on voluntary corporate responsibility. The findings summarized in this article imply the need for a more concerted approach to regulate trade-related risk factors and thus more engagement between health and trade policy sectors within and between nations. An explicit recognition of the role of trade policies in the spread of noncommunicable disease risk factors should be a minimum outcome of the September 2011 Summit, with a commitment to ensure that future trade treaties do not increase such risks. PMID:21726434

Framing international trade and chronic disease.

PubMed

Labonté, Ronald; Mohindra, Katia S; Lencucha, Raphael

2011-07-04

There is an emerging evidence base that global trade is linked with the rise of chronic disease in many low and middle-income countries (LMICs). This linkage is associated, in part, with the global diffusion of unhealthy lifestyles and health damaging products posing a particular challenge to countries still facing high burdens of communicable disease. We developed a generic framework which depicts the determinants and pathways connecting global trade with chronic disease. We then applied this framework to three key risk factors for chronic disease: unhealthy diets, alcohol, and tobacco. This led to specific 'product pathways', which can be further refined and used by health policy-makers to engage with their country's trade policy-makers around health impacts of ongoing trade treaty negotiations, and by researchers to continue refining an evidence base on how global trade is affecting patterns of chronic disease. The prevention and treatment of chronic diseases is now rising on global policy agendas, highlighted by the UN Summit on Noncommunicable Diseases (September 2011). Briefs and declarations leading up to this Summit reference the role of globalization and trade in the spread of risk factors for these diseases, but emphasis is placed on interventions to change health behaviours and on voluntary corporate responsibility. The findings summarized in this article imply the need for a more concerted approach to regulate trade-related risk factors and thus more engagement between health and trade policy sectors within and between nations. An explicit recognition of the role of trade policies in the spread of noncommunicable disease risk factors should be a minimum outcome of the September 2011 Summit, with a commitment to ensure that future trade treaties do not increase such risks.

Spatially explicit global population scenarios consistent with the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

DOE PAGES

Jones, B.; O’Neill, B. C.

2016-07-29

Here we report that the projected size and spatial distribution of the future population are important drivers of global change and key determinants of exposure and vulnerability to hazards. Spatial demographic projections are widely used as inputs to spatial projections of land use, energy use, and emissions, as well as to assessments of the impacts of extreme events, sea level rise, and other climate-related outcomes. To date, however, there are very few global-scale, spatially explicit population projections, and those that do exist are often based on simple scaling or trend extrapolation. Here we present a new set of global, spatiallymore » explicit population scenarios that are consistent with the new Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) developed to facilitate global change research. We use a parameterized gravity-based downscaling model to produce projections of spatial population change that are quantitatively consistent with national population and urbanization projections for the SSPs and qualitatively consistent with assumptions in the SSP narratives regarding spatial development patterns. We show that the five SSPs lead to substantially different spatial population outcomes at the continental, national, and sub-national scale. In general, grid cell-level outcomes are most influenced by national-level population change, second by urbanization rate, and third by assumptions about the spatial style of development. However, the relative importance of these factors is a function of the magnitude of the projected change in total population and urbanization for each country and across SSPs. We also demonstrate variation in outcomes considering the example of population existing in a low-elevation coastal zone under alternative scenarios.« less

Spatially explicit global population scenarios consistent with the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jones, B.; O’Neill, B. C.

Here we report that the projected size and spatial distribution of the future population are important drivers of global change and key determinants of exposure and vulnerability to hazards. Spatial demographic projections are widely used as inputs to spatial projections of land use, energy use, and emissions, as well as to assessments of the impacts of extreme events, sea level rise, and other climate-related outcomes. To date, however, there are very few global-scale, spatially explicit population projections, and those that do exist are often based on simple scaling or trend extrapolation. Here we present a new set of global, spatiallymore » explicit population scenarios that are consistent with the new Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) developed to facilitate global change research. We use a parameterized gravity-based downscaling model to produce projections of spatial population change that are quantitatively consistent with national population and urbanization projections for the SSPs and qualitatively consistent with assumptions in the SSP narratives regarding spatial development patterns. We show that the five SSPs lead to substantially different spatial population outcomes at the continental, national, and sub-national scale. In general, grid cell-level outcomes are most influenced by national-level population change, second by urbanization rate, and third by assumptions about the spatial style of development. However, the relative importance of these factors is a function of the magnitude of the projected change in total population and urbanization for each country and across SSPs. We also demonstrate variation in outcomes considering the example of population existing in a low-elevation coastal zone under alternative scenarios.« less

Development and Performance of Alternative Electricity Sector Pathways Subject to Multiple Climate and Water Projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Newmark, R. L.; Vorosmarty, C. J.; Miara, A.; Cohen, S.; Macknick, J.; Sun, Y.; Corsi, F.; Fekete, B. M.; Tidwell, V. C.

2017-12-01

Climate change impacts on air temperatures and water availability have the potential to alter future electricity sector investment decisions as well as the reliability and performance of the power sector. Different electricity sector configurations are more or less vulnerable to climate-induced changes. For example, once-through cooled thermal facilities are the most cost-effective and efficient technologies under cooler and wetter conditions, but can be substantially affected by and vulnerable to warmer and drier conditions. Non-thermal renewable technologies, such as PV and wind, are essentially "drought-proof" but have other integration and reliability challenges. Prior efforts have explored the impacts of climate change on electric sector development for a limited set of climate and electricity scenarios. Here, we provide a comprehensive suite of scenarios that evaluate how different electricity sector pathways could be affected by a range of climate and water resource conditions. We use four representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios under five global circulation models (GCM) as climate drivers to a Water Balance Model (WBM), to provide twenty separate future climate-water conditions. These climate-water conditions influence electricity sector development from present day to 2050 as determined using the Regional Energy Deployment Systems (ReEDS) model. Four unique electricity sector pathways will be considered, including business-as-usual, carbon cap, high renewable energy technology costs, and coal reliance scenarios. The combination of climate-water and electricity sector pathway scenarios leads to 80 potential future cases resulting in different national and regional electricity infrastructure configurations. The vulnerability of these configurations in relation to climate change (including in-stream thermal pollution impacts and environmental regulations) is evaluated using the Thermoelectric Power and Thermal Pollution (TP2M) model, providing quantitative estimates of the power sector's ability to meet loads, given changes in air temperature, water temperature, and water availability.

Shared Socio-Economic Pathways of the Energy Sector – Quantifying the Narratives

DOE PAGES

Bauer, Nico; Calvin, Katherine; Emmerling, Johannes; ...

2016-08-23

Energy is crucial for supporting basic human needs, development and well-being. The future evolution of the scale and character of the energy system will be fundamentally shaped by socioeconomic conditions and drivers, available energy resources, technologies of energy supply and transformation, and end-use energy demand. However, because energy-related activities are significant sources of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and other environmental and social externalities, energy system development will also be influenced by social acceptance and strategic policy choices. All of these uncertainties have important implications for many aspects of economic and environmental sustainability, and climate change in particular. In the Shared-Socioeconomicmore » Pathway (SSP) framework these uncertainties are structured into five narratives, arranged according to the challenges to climate change mitigation and adaptation. In this study we explore future energy sector developments across the five SSPs using Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), and we also provide summary output and analysis for selected scenarios of global emissions mitigation policies. The mitigation challenge strongly corresponds with global baseline energy sector growth over the 21st century, which varies between 40% and 230% depending on final energy consumer behavior, technological improvements, resource availability and policies. The future baseline CO 2-emission range is even larger, as the most energy-intensive SSP also incorporates a comparatively high share of carbon-intensive fossil fuels, and vice versa. Inter-regional disparities in the SSPs are consistent with the underlying socioeconomic assumptions; these differences are particularly strong in the SSPs with large adaptation challenges, which have little inter-regional convergence in long-term income and final energy demand levels. The scenarios presented do not include feedbacks of climate change on energy sector development. The energy sector SSPs with and without emissions mitigation policies are introduced and analyzed here in order to contribute to future research in climate sciences, mitigation analysis, and studies on impacts, adaptation and vulnerability.« less

Mid-Twenty-First-Century Changes in Global Wave Energy Flux: Single-Model, Single-Forcing and Single-Scenario Ensemble Projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Semedo, Alvaro; Lemos, Gil; Dobrynin, Mikhail; Behrens, Arno; Staneva, Joanna; Miranda, Pedro

2017-04-01

The knowledge of ocean surface wave energy fluxes (or wave power) is of outmost relevance since wave power has a direct impact in coastal erosion, but also in sediment transport and beach nourishment, and ship, as well as in coastal and offshore infrastructures design. Changes in the global wave energy flux pattern can alter significantly the impact of waves in continental shelf and coastal areas. Up until recently the impact of climate change in future global wave climate had received very little attention. Some single model single scenario global wave climate projections, based on CMIP3 scenarios, were pursuit under the auspices of the COWCLIP (coordinated ocean wave climate projections) project, and received some attention in the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change) AR5 (fifth assessment report). In the present study the impact of a warmer climate in the near future global wave energy flux climate is investigated through a 4-member "coherent" ensemble of wave climate projections: single-model, single-forcing, and single-scenario. In this methodology model variability is reduced, leaving only room for the climate change signal. The four ensemble members were produced with the wave model WAM, forced with wind speed and ice coverage from EC-Earth projections, following the representative concentration pathway with a high emissions scenario 8.5 (RCP8.5). The ensemble present climate reference period (the control run) has been set for 1976 to 2005. The projected changes in the global wave energy flux climate are analyzed for the 2031-2060 period.

Global/Local: What Does It Mean for Global Health Educators and How Do We Do It?

PubMed

Rowthorn, Virginia

2015-01-01

There has been dramatic growth in the number of innovative university programs that focus on social justice and teach community-based strategies that are applicable both domestically in North America and internationally. These programs often are referred to as global/local and reflect an effort to link global health and campus community engagement efforts to acknowledge that a common set of transferable skills can be adapted to work with vulnerable populations wherever they may be. However, the concepts underlying global/local education are undertheorized and universities struggle to make the global/local link without a conceptual framework to guide them in this pursuit. This study reports on the outcomes of a 2015 national meeting of 120 global health educators convened to discuss the concepts underlying global/local education, to share models of global/local programs, and to draft a preliminary list of critical elements of a meaningful and didactically sound global/local educational program. A qualitative analysis was conducted of the discussions that took place at the national meeting. The analysis was supported by videorecordings made of full-group discussions. Results were categorized into a preliminary list of global/local program elements. Additionally, a synthesis was developed of critical issues raised at the meeting that warrant future discussion and study. A preliminary list was developed of 7 program components that global health educators consider essential to categorize a program as global/local and to ensure that such a program includes specific critical elements. Interest is great among global health educators to understand and teach the conceptual link between learning on both the global and community levels. Emphasis on this link has high potential to unite the siloed fields of global health and domestic community public health and the institutions, funding options, and career pathways that flow from them. Future research should focus on implementation of global/local programming and evaluation of student learning and community health outcomes related to such programs. Copyright © 2015 The Author. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Representative Agricultural Pathways: A Trans-Disciplinary Approach to Agricultural Model Inter-comparison, Improvement, Climate Impact Assessment and Stakeholder Engagement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Antle, J. M.; Valdivia, R. O.; Claessens, L.; Nelson, G. C.; Rosenzweig, C.; Ruane, A. C.; Vervoort, J.

2013-12-01

The global change research community has recognized that new pathway and scenario concepts are needed to implement impact and vulnerability assessment that is logically consistent across local, regional and global scales. For impact and vulnerability assessment, new socio-economic pathway and scenario concepts are being developed. Representative Agricultural Pathways (RAPs) are designed to extend global pathways to provide the detail needed for global and regional assessment of agricultural systems. In addition, research by the Agricultural Model Inter-comparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) shows that RAPs provide a powerful way to engage stakeholders in climate-related research throughout the research process and in communication of research results. RAPs are based on the integrated assessment framework developed by AgMIP. This framework shows that both bio-physical and socio-economic drivers are essential components of agricultural pathways and logically precede the definition of adaptation and mitigation scenarios that embody associated capabilities and challenges. This approach is based on a trans-disciplinary process for designing pathways and then translating them into parameter sets for bio-physical and economic models that are components of agricultural integrated assessments of climate impact, adaptation and mitigation. RAPs must be designed to be part of a logically consistent set of drivers and outcomes from global to regional and local. Global RAPs are designed to be consistent with higher-level global socio-economic pathways, but add key agricultural drivers such as agricultural growth trends that are not specified in more general pathways, as illustrated in a recent inter-comparison of global agricultural models. To create pathways at regional or local scales, further detail is needed. At this level, teams of scientists and other experts with knowledge of the agricultural systems and regions work together through a step-wise process. Experiences from AgMIP Regional Teams, and from the project on Regional Approaches to Climate Change in the Pacific Northwest, are used to discuss how the RAPs procedures can be further developed and improved, and how RAPs can help engage stakeholders in climate-related research throughout the research process and in communication of research results.

Quantifying Uncertainty in Projections of Stratospheric Ozone Over the 21st Century

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Charlton-Perez, A. J.; Hawkins, E.; Eyring, V.; Cionni, I.; Bodeker, G. E.; Kinnison, D. E.; Akiyoshi, H.; Frith, S. M.; Garcia, R.; Gettelman, A.;

The Regulation of Filamentous Growth in Yeast

PubMed Central

Cullen, Paul J.; Sprague, George F.

2012-01-01

Filamentous growth is a nutrient-regulated growth response that occurs in many fungal species. In pathogens, filamentous growth is critical for host–cell attachment, invasion into tissues, and virulence. The budding yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae undergoes filamentous growth, which provides a genetically tractable system to study the molecular basis of the response. Filamentous growth is regulated by evolutionarily conserved signaling pathways. One of these pathways is a mitogen activated protein kinase (MAPK) pathway. A remarkable feature of the filamentous growth MAPK pathway is that it is composed of factors that also function in other pathways. An intriguing challenge therefore has been to understand how pathways that share components establish and maintain their identity. Other canonical signaling pathways—rat sarcoma/protein kinase A (RAS/PKA), sucrose nonfermentable (SNF), and target of rapamycin (TOR)—also regulate filamentous growth, which raises the question of how signals from multiple pathways become integrated into a coordinated response. Together, these pathways regulate cell differentiation to the filamentous type, which is characterized by changes in cell adhesion, cell polarity, and cell shape. How these changes are accomplished is also discussed. High-throughput genomics approaches have recently uncovered new connections to filamentous growth regulation. These connections suggest that filamentous growth is a more complex and globally regulated behavior than is currently appreciated, which may help to pave the way for future investigations into this eukaryotic cell differentiation behavior. PMID:22219507

The global pyrogenic carbon cycle and its impact on the level of atmospheric CO2 over past and future centuries.

PubMed

Landry, Jean-Sébastien; Matthews, H Damon

2017-08-01

The incomplete combustion of vegetation and dead organic matter by landscape fires creates recalcitrant pyrogenic carbon (PyC), which could be consequential for the global carbon budget if changes in fire regime, climate, and atmospheric CO 2 were to substantially affect gains and losses of PyC on land and in oceans. Here, we included global PyC cycling in a coupled climate-carbon model to assess the role of PyC in historical and future simulations, accounting for uncertainties through five sets of parameter estimates. We obtained year-2000 global stocks of (Central estimate, likely uncertainty range in parentheses) 86 (11-154), 47 (2-64), and 1129 (90-5892) Pg C for terrestrial residual PyC (RPyC), marine dissolved PyC, and marine particulate PyC, respectively. PyC cycling decreased atmospheric CO 2 only slightly between 1751 and 2000 (by 0.8 Pg C for the Central estimate) as PyC-related fluxes changed little over the period. For 2000 to 2300, we combined Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 with stable or continuously increasing future fire frequencies. For the increasing future fire regime, the production of new RPyC generally outpaced the warming-induced accelerated loss of existing RPyC, so that PyC cycling decreased atmospheric CO 2 between 2000 and 2300 for most estimates (by 4-8 Pg C for Central). For the stable fire regime, however, PyC cycling usually increased atmospheric CO 2 (by 1-9 Pg C for Central), and only the most extreme choice of parameters maximizing PyC production and minimizing PyC decomposition led to atmospheric CO 2 decreases under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5 (by 5-8 Pg C). Our results suggest that PyC cycling will likely reduce the future increase in atmospheric CO 2 if landscape fires become much more frequent; however, in the absence of a substantial increase in fire frequency, PyC cycling might contribute to, rather than mitigate, the future increase in atmospheric CO 2 . © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Leveraging algal omics to reveal potential targets for augmenting TAG accumulation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Arora, Neha; Pienkos, Philip T.; Pruthi, Vikas

Ongoing global efforts to commercialize microalgal biofuels have expedited the use of multi-omics techniques to gain insights into lipid biosynthetic pathways. Functional genomics analyses have recently been employed to complement existing sequence-level omics studies, shedding light on the dynamics of lipid synthesis and its interplay with other cellular metabolic pathways, thus revealing possible targets for metabolic engineering. Here, we review the current status of algal omics studies to reveal potential targets to augment TAG accumulation in various microalgae. Here, this review specifically aims to examine and catalog systems level data related to stress-induced TAG accumulation in oleaginous microalgae and informmore » future metabolic engineering strategies to develop strains with enhanced bioproductivity, which could pave a path for sustainable green energy.« less

Fuelling the future: microbial engineering for the production of sustainable biofuels.

PubMed

Liao, James C; Mi, Luo; Pontrelli, Sammy; Luo, Shanshan

2016-04-01

Global climate change linked to the accumulation of greenhouse gases has caused concerns regarding the use of fossil fuels as the major energy source. To mitigate climate change while keeping energy supply sustainable, one solution is to rely on the ability of microorganisms to use renewable resources for biofuel synthesis. In this Review, we discuss how microorganisms can be explored for the production of next-generation biofuels, based on the ability of bacteria and fungi to use lignocellulose; through direct CO2 conversion by microalgae; using lithoautotrophs driven by solar electricity; or through the capacity of microorganisms to use methane generated from landfill. Furthermore, we discuss how to direct these substrates to the biosynthetic pathways of various fuel compounds and how to optimize biofuel production by engineering fuel pathways and central metabolism.

Leveraging algal omics to reveal potential targets for augmenting TAG accumulation

DOE PAGES

Arora, Neha; Pienkos, Philip T.; Pruthi, Vikas; ...

2018-04-18

Ongoing global efforts to commercialize microalgal biofuels have expedited the use of multi-omics techniques to gain insights into lipid biosynthetic pathways. Functional genomics analyses have recently been employed to complement existing sequence-level omics studies, shedding light on the dynamics of lipid synthesis and its interplay with other cellular metabolic pathways, thus revealing possible targets for metabolic engineering. Here, we review the current status of algal omics studies to reveal potential targets to augment TAG accumulation in various microalgae. Here, this review specifically aims to examine and catalog systems level data related to stress-induced TAG accumulation in oleaginous microalgae and informmore » future metabolic engineering strategies to develop strains with enhanced bioproductivity, which could pave a path for sustainable green energy.« less

Leveraging algal omics to reveal potential targets for augmenting TAG accumulation.

PubMed

Arora, Neha; Pienkos, Philip T; Pruthi, Vikas; Poluri, Krishna Mohan; Guarnieri, Michael T

2018-04-18

Ongoing global efforts to commercialize microalgal biofuels have expedited the use of multi-omics techniques to gain insights into lipid biosynthetic pathways. Functional genomics analyses have recently been employed to complement existing sequence-level omics studies, shedding light on the dynamics of lipid synthesis and its interplay with other cellular metabolic pathways, thus revealing possible targets for metabolic engineering. Here, we review the current status of algal omics studies to reveal potential targets to augment TAG accumulation in various microalgae. This review specifically aims to examine and catalog systems level data related to stress-induced TAG accumulation in oleaginous microalgae and inform future metabolic engineering strategies to develop strains with enhanced bioproductivity, which could pave a path for sustainable green energy. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Scenario and modelling uncertainty in global mean temperature change derived from emission-driven global climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Booth, B. B. B.; Bernie, D.; McNeall, D.; Hawkins, E.; Caesar, J.; Boulton, C.; Friedlingstein, P.; Sexton, D. M. H.

2013-04-01

We compare future changes in global mean temperature in response to different future scenarios which, for the first time, arise from emission-driven rather than concentration-driven perturbed parameter ensemble of a global climate model (GCM). These new GCM simulations sample uncertainties in atmospheric feedbacks, land carbon cycle, ocean physics and aerosol sulphur cycle processes. We find broader ranges of projected temperature responses arising when considering emission rather than concentration-driven simulations (with 10-90th percentile ranges of 1.7 K for the aggressive mitigation scenario, up to 3.9 K for the high-end, business as usual scenario). A small minority of simulations resulting from combinations of strong atmospheric feedbacks and carbon cycle responses show temperature increases in excess of 9 K (RCP8.5) and even under aggressive mitigation (RCP2.6) temperatures in excess of 4 K. While the simulations point to much larger temperature ranges for emission-driven experiments, they do not change existing expectations (based on previous concentration-driven experiments) on the timescales over which different sources of uncertainty are important. The new simulations sample a range of future atmospheric concentrations for each emission scenario. Both in the case of SRES A1B and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), the concentration scenarios used to drive GCM ensembles, lies towards the lower end of our simulated distribution. This design decision (a legacy of previous assessments) is likely to lead concentration-driven experiments to under-sample strong feedback responses in future projections. Our ensemble of emission-driven simulations span the global temperature response of the CMIP5 emission-driven simulations, except at the low end. Combinations of low climate sensitivity and low carbon cycle feedbacks lead to a number of CMIP5 responses to lie below our ensemble range. The ensemble simulates a number of high-end responses which lie above the CMIP5 carbon cycle range. These high-end simulations can be linked to sampling a number of stronger carbon cycle feedbacks and to sampling climate sensitivities above 4.5 K. This latter aspect highlights the priority in identifying real-world climate-sensitivity constraints which, if achieved, would lead to reductions on the upper bound of projected global mean temperature change. The ensembles of simulations presented here provides a framework to explore relationships between present-day observables and future changes, while the large spread of future-projected changes highlights the ongoing need for such work.

Evaluation of additional biogeochemical impacts on mitigation pathways in an energy sytem integrated assessment model.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dessens, O.

2017-12-01

Within the last IPCC AR5 a large and systematic sensitivity study around available technologies and timing of policies applied in IAMs to achieve the 2°C target has been conducted. However the simple climate representations included in IAMs are generally tuned to the results of ensemble means. This may result in hiding within the ensemble mean results possible challenging mitigation pathways for the economy or the technology future scenarios. This work provides new insights on the sensitivity of the socio-economic response to different climate factors under a 2°C climate change target in order to help guide future efforts to reduce uncertainty in the climate mitigation decisions. The main objective is to understand and bring new insights on how future global warming will affect the natural biochemical feedbacks on the climate system and what could be the consequences of these feedbacks on the anthropogenic emission pathways with a specific focus on the energy-economy system. It specifically focuses on three issues of the climate representation affecting the energy system transformation and GHG emissions pathways: 1- Impacts of the climate sensitivity (or TCR); 2- Impacts of warming on the radiative forcing (cloudiness,...); 3- Impacts of warming on the carbon cycle (carbon cycle feedback). We use the integrated assessment model TIAM-UCL to examine the mitigation pathways compatible with the 2C target depending on assumptions regarding the 3 issues of the climate representation introduced above. The following key conclusions drawn from this study are that mitigation to 2°C is still possible under strong climate sensitivity (TCR), strong carbon cycle amplification or positive radiative forcing feedback. However, this level of climate mitigation will require a significant transformation in the way we produce and consume energy. Carbon capture and sequestration on electricity generation, industry and biomass is part of the technology pool needed to achieve this level of decarbonisation. In extreme condition (positive correlation between the 3 issues discussed) the integrated assessment model TIAM-UCL creates pathways requiring additional negative emission technologies at the end of this century to keep temperature change well below 2°C.

Global implementation of two shared socioeconomic pathways for future sanitation and wastewater flows.

PubMed

van Puijenbroek, P J T M; Bouwman, A F; Beusen, A H W; Lucas, P L

2015-01-01

Households are an important source of nutrient loading to surface water. Sewage systems without or with only primary wastewater treatment are major polluters of surface water. Future emission levels will depend on population growth, urbanisation, increases in income and investments in sanitation, sewage systems and wastewater treatment plants. This study presents the results for two possible shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). SSP1 is a scenario that includes improvement of wastewater treatment and SSP3 does not include such improvement, with fewer investments and a higher population growth. The main drivers for the nutrient emission model are population growth, income growth and urbanisation. Under the SSP1 scenario, 5.7 billion people will be connected to a sewage system and for SSP3 this is 5 billion. Nitrogen and phosphorus emissions increase by about 70% under both SSP scenarios, with the largest increase in SSP1. South Asia and Africa have the largest emission increases, in the developed countries decrease the nutrient emissions. The higher emission level poses a risk to ecosystem services.

Recent trends in metabolic engineering of microorganisms for the production of advanced biofuels.

PubMed

Cheon, Seungwoo; Kim, Hye Mi; Gustavsson, Martin; Lee, Sang Yup

2016-12-01

As climate change has become one of the major global risks, our heavy dependence on petroleum-derived fuels has received much public attention. To solve such problems, production of sustainable fuels has been intensively studied over the past years. Thanks to recent advances in synthetic biology and metabolic engineering technologies, bio-based platforms for advanced biofuels production have been developed using various microorganisms. The strategies for production of advanced biofuels have converged upon four major metabolic routes: the 2-ketoacid pathway, the fatty acid synthesis (FAS) pathway, the isoprenoid pathway, and the reverse β-oxidation pathway. Additionally, the polyketide synthesis pathway has recently been attracting interest as a promising alternative biofuel production route. In this article, recent trends in advanced biofuels production are reviewed by categorizing them into three types of advanced biofuels: alcohols, biodiesel and jet fuel, and gasoline. Focus is given on the strategies of employing synthetic biology and metabolic engineering for the development of microbial strains producing advanced fuels. Finally, the prospects for future advances needed to achieve much more efficient bio-based production of advanced biofuels are discussed, focusing on designing advanced biofuel production pathways coupled with screening, modifying, and creating novel enzymes. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Optimal satellite sampling to resolve global-scale dynamics in the I-T system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rowland, D. E.; Zesta, E.; Connor, H. K.; Pfaff, R. F., Jr.

2016-12-01

The recent Decadal Survey highlighted the need for multipoint measurements of ion-neutral coupling processes to study the pathways by which solar wind energy drives dynamics in the I-T system. The emphasis in the Decadal Survey is on global-scale dynamics and processes, and in particular, mission concepts making use of multiple identical spacecraft in low earth orbit were considered for the GDC and DYNAMIC missions. This presentation will provide quantitative assessments of the optimal spacecraft sampling needed to significantly advance our knowledge of I-T dynamics on the global scale.We will examine storm time and quiet time conditions as simulated by global circulation models, and determine how well various candidate satellite constellations and satellite schemes can quantify the plasma and neutral convection patterns and global-scale distributions of plasma density, neutral density, and composition, and their response to changes in the IMF. While the global circulation models are data-starved, and do not contain all the physics that we might expect to observe with a global-scale constellation mission, they are nonetheless an excellent "starting point" for discussions of the implementation of such a mission. The result will be of great utility for the design of future missions, such as GDC, to study the global-scale dynamics of the I-T system.

"Days of future passed" - climate change and carbon cycle history (Jean Baptiste Lamarck Medal Lecture)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weissert, Helmut

2013-04-01

With the beginning of the fossil fuel age in the 19th century mankind has become an important geological agent on a global scale. For the first time in human history action of man has an impact on global biogeochemical cycles. Increasing CO2 concentrations will result in a perturbation of global carbon cycling coupled with climate change. Investigations of past changes in carbon cycling and in climate will improve our predictions of future climate. Increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations will drive climate into a mode of operation, which may resemble climate conditions in the deep geological past. Pliocene climate will give insight into 400ppm world with higher global sea level than today. Doubling of pre-industrial atmospheric CO2 levels will shift the climate system into a state resembling greenhouse climate in the Early Cenozoic or even in the Cretaceous. Carbon isotope geochemistry serves as tool for tracing the pathway of the carbon cycle through geological time. Globally registered negative C-isotope anomalies in the C-isotope record are interpreted as signatures of rapid addition (103 to a few 104 years) of CO2 to the ocean-atmosphere system. Positive C-isotope excursions following negative spikes record the slow post-perturbation recovery of the biosphere at time scales of 105 to 106 years. Duration of C-cycle perturbations in earth history cannot be directly compared with rapid perturbation characterizing the Anthropocene. However, the investigation of greenhouse pulses in the geological past provides insight into different climate states, it allows to identify tipping points in past climate systems and it offers the opportunity to learn about response reactions of the biosphere to rapid changes in global carbon cycling. Sudden injection of massive amounts of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere is recorded in C-isotope record of the Early Cretaceous. The Aptian carbon cycle perturbation triggered changes in temperature and in global hydrological cycling. Changes in physical and chemical oceanography are reflected in widespread black shale deposition ("Oceanic Anoxic Event 1a"), in carbonate platform drowning and in biocalcification crises. "Days of future passed" (Moody Blues, 1967) reminds us that the past provides essential information needed for decisions to be made in the interest of mankind's future.

Using ensemble forecasting to examine how climate change promotes worldwide invasion of the golden apple snail (Pomacea canaliculata).

PubMed

Lei, Juncheng; Chen, Lian; Li, Hong

2017-08-01

The golden apple snail, Pomacea canaliculata, is one of the world's 100 most notorious invasive alien species. Knowledge about the critical climate variables that limit the global distribution range of the snail, as well as predictions of future species distributions under climate change, is very helpful for management of snail. In this study, the climatically suitable habitats for this kind of snail under current climate conditions were modeled by biomod2 and projected to eight future climate scenarios (2 time periods [2050s, 2080s] × 2 Representative Concentration Pathways [RCPs; RCP2.6, RCP8.5] × 2 atmospheric General Circulation Models [GCMs; Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCMA), Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO)]). The results suggest that the lowest temperature of coldest month is the critical climate variable to restrict the global distribution range of P. canaliculata. It is predicted that the climatically suitable habitats for P. canaliculata will increase by an average of 3.3% in 2050s and 3.8% in 2080s for the RCP2.6 scenario, while they increase by an average of 8.7% in 2050s and 10.3% in 2080s for the RCP8.5 scenario. In general, climate change in the future may promote the global invasion of the invasive species. Therefore, it is necessary to take proactive measures to monitor and preclude the invasion of this species.

Applying the global RCP-SSP-SPA scenario framework at sub-national scale: A multi-scale and participatory scenario approach.

PubMed

Kebede, Abiy S; Nicholls, Robert J; Allan, Andrew; Arto, Iñaki; Cazcarro, Ignacio; Fernandes, Jose A; Hill, Chris T; Hutton, Craig W; Kay, Susan; Lázár, Attila N; Macadam, Ian; Palmer, Matthew; Suckall, Natalie; Tompkins, Emma L; Vincent, Katharine; Whitehead, Paul W

2018-09-01

To better anticipate potential impacts of climate change, diverse information about the future is required, including climate, society and economy, and adaptation and mitigation. To address this need, a global RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways), SSP (Shared Socio-economic Pathways), and SPA (Shared climate Policy Assumptions) (RCP-SSP-SPA) scenario framework has been developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC-AR5). Application of this full global framework at sub-national scales introduces two key challenges: added complexity in capturing the multiple dimensions of change, and issues of scale. Perhaps for this reason, there are few such applications of this new framework. Here, we present an integrated multi-scale hybrid scenario approach that combines both expert-based and participatory methods. The framework has been developed and applied within the DECCMA 1 project with the purpose of exploring migration and adaptation in three deltas across West Africa and South Asia: (i) the Volta delta (Ghana), (ii) the Mahanadi delta (India), and (iii) the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) delta (Bangladesh/India). Using a climate scenario that encompasses a wide range of impacts (RCP8.5) combined with three SSP-based socio-economic scenarios (SSP2, SSP3, SSP5), we generate highly divergent and challenging scenario contexts across multiple scales against which robustness of the human and natural systems within the deltas are tested. In addition, we consider four distinct adaptation policy trajectories: Minimum intervention, Economic capacity expansion, System efficiency enhancement, and System restructuring, which describe alternative future bundles of adaptation actions/measures under different socio-economic trajectories. The paper highlights the importance of multi-scale (combined top-down and bottom-up) and participatory (joint expert-stakeholder) scenario methods for addressing uncertainty in adaptation decision-making. The framework facilitates improved integrated assessments of the potential impacts and plausible adaptation policy choices (including migration) under uncertain future changing conditions. The concept, methods, and processes presented are transferable to other sub-national socio-ecological settings with multi-scale challenges. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Serum Metabolomic Profiling in Acute Alcoholic Hepatitis Identifies Multiple Dysregulated Pathways

PubMed Central

Rachakonda, Vikrant; Gabbert, Charles; Raina, Amit; Bell, Lauren N.; Cooper, Sara; Malik, Shahid; Behari, Jaideep

2014-01-01

Background and Objectives While animal studies have implicated derangements of global energy homeostasis in the pathogenesis of acute alcoholic hepatitis (AAH), the relevance of these findings to the development of human AAH remains unclear. Using global, unbiased serum metabolomics analysis, we sought to characterize alterations in metabolic pathways associated with severe AAH and identify potential biomarkers for disease prognosis. Methods This prospective, case-control study design included 25 patients with severe AAH and 25 ambulatory patients with alcoholic cirrhosis. Serum samples were collected within 24 hours of the index clinical encounter. Global, unbiased metabolomics profiling was performed. Patients were followed for 180 days after enrollment to determine survival. Results Levels of 234 biochemicals were altered in subjects with severe AAH. Random-forest analysis, principal component analysis, and integrated hierarchical clustering methods demonstrated that metabolomics profiles separated the two cohorts with 100% accuracy. Severe AAH was associated with enhanced triglyceride lipolysis, impaired mitochondrial fatty acid beta oxidation, and upregulated omega oxidation. Low levels of multiple lysolipids and related metabolites suggested decreased plasma membrane remodeling in severe AAH. While most measured bile acids were increased in severe AAH, low deoxycholate and glycodeoxycholate levels indicated intestinal dysbiosis. Several changes in substrate utilization for energy homeostasis were identified in severe AAH, including increased glucose consumption by the pentose phosphate pathway, altered tricarboxylic acid (TCA) cycle activity, and enhanced peptide catabolism. Finally, altered levels of small molecules related to glutathione metabolism and antioxidant vitamin depletion were observed in patients with severe AAH. Univariable logistic regression revealed 15 metabolites associated with 180-day survival in severe AAH. Conclusion Severe AAH is characterized by a distinct metabolic phenotype spanning multiple pathways. Metabolomics profiling revealed a panel of biomarkers for disease prognosis, and future studies are planned to validate these findings in larger cohorts of patients with severe AAH. PMID:25461442

Amyloid domains in the cell nucleus controlled by nucleoskeletal protein lamin B1 reveal a new pathway of mercury neurotoxicity

PubMed Central

Arnhold, Florian; Gührs, Karl-Heinz

2015-01-01

Mercury (Hg) is a bioaccumulating trace metal that globally circulates the atmosphere and waters in its elemental, inorganic and organic chemical forms. While Hg represents a notorious neurotoxicant, the underlying cellular pathways are insufficiently understood. We identify amyloid protein aggregation in the cell nucleus as a novel pathway of Hg-bio-interactions. By mass spectrometry of purified protein aggregates, a subset of spliceosomal components and nucleoskeletal protein lamin B1 were detected as constituent parts of an Hg-induced nuclear aggregome network. The aggregome network was located by confocal imaging of amyloid-specific antibodies and dyes to amyloid cores within splicing-speckles that additionally recruit components of the ubiquitin-proteasome system. Hg significantly enhances global proteasomal activity in the nucleus, suggesting that formation of amyloid speckles plays a role in maintenance of protein homeostasis. RNAi knock down showed that lamin B1 for its part regulates amyloid speckle formation and thus likewise participates in nuclear protein homeostasis. As the Hg-induced cascade of interactions between the nucleoskeleton and protein homeostasis reduces neuronal signalling, amyloid fibrillation in the cell nucleus is introduced as a feature of Hg-neurotoxicity that opens new avenues of future research. Similar to protein aggregation events in the cytoplasm that are controlled by the cytoskeleton, amyloid fibrillation of nuclear proteins may be driven by the nucleoskeleton. PMID:25699204

The Emerging Role of the Hippo Pathway in Lung Cancers: Clinical Implications.

PubMed

Teoh, Seong Lin; Das, Srijit

2017-11-30

The incidence of lung cancers has increased globally. Increased exposure to tobacco, passive smoking, less consumption of vegetables and fruits and occupational exposure to asbestos, arsenic and chromium are the main risk factors. The pathophysiology of lung cancer is complex and not well understood. Various microRNAs, genes and pathways are associated with lung cancers. The genes involved in lung cancers produce proteins involved in cell growth, differentiation, different cell cycles, apoptosis, immune modulation, tumor spread and progression. The Hippo pathway (also known as the Salvador-Warts-Hippo pathway) is the latest emerging concept in cancers. The Hippo pathway plays an important role in controlling the size of the tissue and organ by virtue of its action on cell proliferation and apoptosis. In the present review, we highlight the mammalian Hippo pathway, role of its core members, its upstream regulators, downstream effectors and the resistance cases in lung cancers. Specific interaction of Mer with cell surface hyaluronan receptor CD44 is vital in cell contact inhibition, thereby activating Hippo pathway. Both transcription co-activators YAP and TAZ (also known as WWTR1, being homologs of Drosophila Yki) are important regulators of proliferation and apoptosis, and serve as major downstream effectors of the Hippo pathway. Mutation of NF2, the upstream regulator of Hippo pathway is linked to the cancers. Targeting YAP and TAZ may be important for future drug delivery and treatment. Copyright© Bentham Science Publishers; For any queries, please email at epub@benthamscience.org.

LINC00152 promotes proliferation in hepatocellular carcinoma by targeting EpCAM via the mTOR signaling pathway.

PubMed

Ji, Jie; Tang, Junwei; Deng, Lei; Xie, Yu; Jiang, Runqiu; Li, Guoqiang; Sun, Beicheng

2015-12-15

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is well known as the sixth most common malignant tumor and the third leading cause of cancer-related deaths globally. LINC00152 was documented as an important long non-coding RNA (lncRNA) involved in the pathogenesis of gastric cancer; however, the detailed mechanism of action of LINC00152 remains unknown. Here, based on the increased level of LINC00152 in HCC tissues, we found that LINC00152 could promote cell proliferation in vitro and tumor growth in vivo. Furthermore, microarray-based analysis indicated that LINC00152 could activate the mechanistic target of rapamycin(mTOR) pathway by binding to the promoter of EpCAM through a cis-regulation, as confirmed by Gal4-λN/BoxB reporter system. Thus, LINC00152 might be involved in the oncogenesis of HCC by activating the mTOR signaling pathway and might be a novel index for clinical diagnosis in the future.

Everybody needs sphingolipids, right! Mining for new drug targets in protozoan sphingolipid biosynthesis.

PubMed

Mina, John G M; Denny, P W

2018-02-01

Sphingolipids (SLs) are an integral part of all eukaryotic cellular membranes. In addition, they have indispensable functions as signalling molecules controlling a myriad of cellular events. Disruption of either the de novo synthesis or the degradation pathways has been shown to have detrimental effects. The earlier identification of selective inhibitors of fungal SL biosynthesis promised potent broad-spectrum anti-fungal agents, which later encouraged testing some of those agents against protozoan parasites. In this review we focus on the key enzymes of the SL de novo biosynthetic pathway in protozoan parasites of the Apicomplexa and Kinetoplastidae, outlining the divergence and interconnection between host and pathogen metabolism. The druggability of the SL biosynthesis is considered, alongside recent technology advances that will enable the dissection and analyses of this pathway in the parasitic protozoa. The future impact of these advances for the development of new therapeutics for both globally threatening and neglected infectious diseases is potentially profound.

Future heat waves and surface ozone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meehl, Gerald A.; Tebaldi, Claudia; Tilmes, Simone; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Bates, Susan; Pendergrass, Angeline; Lombardozzi, Danica

2018-06-01

A global Earth system model is used to study the relationship between heat waves and surface ozone levels over land areas around the world that could experience either large decreases or little change in future ozone precursor emissions. The model is driven by emissions of greenhouse gases and ozone precursors from a medium-high emission scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway 6.0–RCP6.0) and is compared to an experiment with anthropogenic ozone precursor emissions fixed at 2005 levels. With ongoing increases in greenhouse gases and corresponding increases in average temperature in both experiments, heat waves are projected to become more intense over most global land areas (greater maximum temperatures during heat waves). However, surface ozone concentrations on future heat wave days decrease proportionately more than on non-heat wave days in areas where ozone precursors are prescribed to decrease in RCP6.0 (e.g. most of North America and Europe), while surface ozone concentrations in heat waves increase in areas where ozone precursors either increase or have little change (e.g. central Asia, the Mideast, northern Africa). In the stabilized ozone precursor experiment, surface ozone concentrations increase on future heat wave days compared to non-heat wave days in most regions except in areas where there is ozone suppression that contributes to decreases in ozone in future heat waves. This is likely associated with effects of changes in isoprene emissions at high temperatures (e.g. west coast and southeastern North America, eastern Europe).

Application of the new scenario framework for climate change research: Future social vulnerability in large urban areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rohat, Guillaume; Flacke, Johannes; Dao, Hy

2016-04-01

It is by now widely acknowledged that future social vulnerability to climate change depends on both future climate state and future socio-economic conditions. Nevertheless, while most of the vulnerability assessments are using climate projections, the integration of socio-economic projections into the assessment of vulnerabilities has been very limited. Up to now, the vast majority of vulnerability assessments has been using current socio-economic conditions, hence has failed to consider the influence of socio-economic developments in the construction of vulnerability. To enhance the use of socio-economic projections into climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability assessments, the climate change research community has been recently involved in the development of a new model for creating scenarios that integrate future changes in climate as well as in society, known under the name of the new scenario framework for climate change research. This theoretical framework is made of a set of alternative futures of socio-economic developments (known as shared socio-economic pathways - SSPs), a set of hypothesis about future climate policies (known as shared policy assumptions - SPAs) and a set of greenhouse gas concentration trajectories (known as representative concentration pathways - RCPs), which are all combined into a scenario matrix architecture (SMA) whose aim is to facilitate the use of this framework. Despite calls by the climate change research community for the use of this conceptual framework in impacts, adaptation and vulnerability research, its use and its assessment has been very limited. Focusing on case-studies (i.e. specific cities as well as specific climate impacts and their associated human exposures and vulnerabilities), the study presented here will attempt to operationalize this theoretical framework for the assessment of future social vulnerability in large urban areas. A particular attention will be paid to less advanced and more vulnerable countries in the global south. We will discuss how this framework can be implemented for large urban agglomerations. To do so, we will examine: (i) by what means globally-developed SSPs can be extended into sector-specific and location-specific socio-economic development scenarios, (ii) in what manner the quantification of key socio-economic indicators (in accordance with the different SSPs), coupled with regional climate projections under different RCPs, can lead to a quantitative and reliable assessment of the evolution of future social vulnerability, and (iii) to which extent the SMA, i.e. the combination of extended SSPs, regional climate projections (under different RCPs) and various locally-developed SPAs, can answer some of the key questions regarding climate change adaptation policies, from a vulnerability perspective.

Collaboration pathway(s) using new tools for optimizing operational climate monitoring from space

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Helmuth, Douglas B.; Selva, Daniel; Dwyer, Morgan M.

2014-10-01

Consistently collecting the earth's climate signatures remains a priority for world governments and international scientific organizations. Architecting a solution requires transforming scientific missions into an optimized robust `operational' constellation that addresses the needs of decision makers, scientific investigators and global users for trusted data. The application of new tools offers pathways for global architecture collaboration. Recent (2014) rulebased decision engine modeling runs that targeted optimizing the intended NPOESS architecture, becomes a surrogate for global operational climate monitoring architecture(s). This rule-based systems tools provide valuable insight for Global climate architectures, through the comparison and evaluation of alternatives considered and the exhaustive range of trade space explored. A representative optimization of Global ECV's (essential climate variables) climate monitoring architecture(s) is explored and described in some detail with thoughts on appropriate rule-based valuations. The optimization tools(s) suggest and support global collaboration pathways and hopefully elicit responses from the audience and climate science shareholders.

Finding pathways to national-scale land-sector sustainability.

PubMed

Gao, Lei; Bryan, Brett A

2017-04-12

The 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and 169 targets under Agenda 2030 of the United Nations map a coherent global sustainability ambition at a level of detail general enough to garner consensus amongst nations. However, achieving the global agenda will depend heavily on successful national-scale implementation, which requires the development of effective science-driven targets tailored to specific national contexts and supported by strong national governance. Here we assess the feasibility of achieving multiple SDG targets at the national scale for the Australian land-sector. We scaled targets to three levels of ambition and two timeframes, then quantitatively explored the option space for target achievement under 648 plausible future environmental, socio-economic, technological and policy pathways using the Land-Use Trade-Offs (LUTO) integrated land systems model. We show that target achievement is very sensitive to global efforts to abate emissions, domestic land-use policy, productivity growth rate, and land-use change adoption behaviour and capacity constraints. Weaker target-setting ambition resulted in higher achievement but poorer sustainability outcomes. Accelerating land-use dynamics after 2030 changed the targets achieved by 2050, warranting a longer-term view and greater flexibility in sustainability implementation. Simultaneous achievement of multiple targets is rare owing to the complexity of sustainability target implementation and the pervasive trade-offs in resource-constrained land systems. Given that hard choices are needed, the land-sector must first address the essential food/fibre production, biodiversity and land degradation components of sustainability via specific policy pathways. It may also contribute to emissions abatement, water and energy targets by capitalizing on co-benefits. However, achieving targets relevant to the land-sector will also require substantial contributions from other sectors such as clean energy, food systems and water resource management. Nations require globally coordinated, national-scale, comprehensive, integrated, multi-sectoral analyses to support national target-setting that prioritizes efficient and effective sustainability interventions across societies, economies and environments.

Finding pathways to national-scale land-sector sustainability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Lei; Bryan, Brett A.

2017-04-01

The 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and 169 targets under Agenda 2030 of the United Nations map a coherent global sustainability ambition at a level of detail general enough to garner consensus amongst nations. However, achieving the global agenda will depend heavily on successful national-scale implementation, which requires the development of effective science-driven targets tailored to specific national contexts and supported by strong national governance. Here we assess the feasibility of achieving multiple SDG targets at the national scale for the Australian land-sector. We scaled targets to three levels of ambition and two timeframes, then quantitatively explored the option space for target achievement under 648 plausible future environmental, socio-economic, technological and policy pathways using the Land-Use Trade-Offs (LUTO) integrated land systems model. We show that target achievement is very sensitive to global efforts to abate emissions, domestic land-use policy, productivity growth rate, and land-use change adoption behaviour and capacity constraints. Weaker target-setting ambition resulted in higher achievement but poorer sustainability outcomes. Accelerating land-use dynamics after 2030 changed the targets achieved by 2050, warranting a longer-term view and greater flexibility in sustainability implementation. Simultaneous achievement of multiple targets is rare owing to the complexity of sustainability target implementation and the pervasive trade-offs in resource-constrained land systems. Given that hard choices are needed, the land-sector must first address the essential food/fibre production, biodiversity and land degradation components of sustainability via specific policy pathways. It may also contribute to emissions abatement, water and energy targets by capitalizing on co-benefits. However, achieving targets relevant to the land-sector will also require substantial contributions from other sectors such as clean energy, food systems and water resource management. Nations require globally coordinated, national-scale, comprehensive, integrated, multi-sectoral analyses to support national target-setting that prioritizes efficient and effective sustainability interventions across societies, economies and environments.

Flexible parameter-sparse global temperature time profiles that stabilise at 1.5 and 2.0 °C

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huntingford, Chris; Yang, Hui; Harper, Anna; Cox, Peter M.; Gedney, Nicola; Burke, Eleanor J.; Lowe, Jason A.; Hayman, Garry; Collins, William J.; Smith, Stephen M.; Comyn-Platt, Edward

2017-07-01

The meeting of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in December 2015 committed parties at the convention to hold the rise in global average temperature to well below 2.0 °C above pre-industrial levels. It also committed the parties to pursue efforts to limit warming to 1.5 °C. This leads to two key questions. First, what extent of emissions reduction will achieve either target? Second, what is the benefit of the reduced climate impacts from keeping warming at or below 1.5 °C? To provide answers, climate model simulations need to follow trajectories consistent with these global temperature limits. It is useful to operate models in an inverse mode to make model-specific estimates of greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration pathways consistent with the prescribed temperature profiles. Further inversion derives related emissions pathways for these concentrations. For this to happen, and to enable climate research centres to compare GHG concentrations and emissions estimates, common temperature trajectory scenarios are required. Here we define algebraic curves that asymptote to a stabilised limit, while also matching the magnitude and gradient of recent warming levels. The curves are deliberately parameter-sparse, needing the prescription of just two parameters plus the final temperature. Yet despite this simplicity, they can allow for temperature overshoot and for generational changes, for which more effort to decelerate warming change needs to be made by future generations. The curves capture temperature profiles from the existing Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP2.6) scenario projections by a range of different Earth system models (ESMs), which have warming amounts towards the lower levels of those that society is discussing.

Greenhouse gas policy influences climate via direct effects of land-use change

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jones, Andrew D.; Collins, William D.; Edmonds, James A.

2013-06-01

Proposed climate mitigation measures do not account for direct biophysical climate impacts of land-use change (LUC), nor do the stabilization targets modeled for the 5th Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). To examine the significance of such effects on global and regional patterns of climate change, a baseline and alternative scenario of future anthropogenic activity are simulated within the Integrated Earth System Model, which couples the Global Change Assessment Model, Global Land-use Model, and Community Earth System Model. The alternative scenario has high biofuel utilization and approximately 50% less global forest cover compared to the baseline, standardmore » RCP4.5 scenario. Both scenarios stabilize radiative forcing from atmospheric constituents at 4.5 W/m2 by 2100. Thus, differences between their climate predictions quantify the biophysical effects of LUC. Offline radiative transfer and land model simulations are also utilized to identify forcing and feedback mechanisms driving the coupled response. Boreal deforestation is found to strongly influence climate due to increased albedo coupled with a regional-scale water vapor feedback. Globally, the alternative scenario yields a 21st century warming trend that is 0.5 °C cooler than baseline, driven by a 1 W/m2 mean decrease in radiative forcing that is distributed unevenly around the globe. Some regions are cooler in the alternative scenario than in 2005. These results demonstrate that neither climate change nor actual radiative forcing are uniquely related to atmospheric forcing targets such as those found in the RCP’s, but rather depend on particulars of the socioeconomic pathways followed to meet each target.« less

Monitoring and Predicting the Export and Fate of Global Ocean Net Primary Production: The EXPORTS Field Program

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Exports Science Definition Team

2016-04-01

Ocean ecosystems play a critical role in the Earth's carbon cycle and its quantification on global scales remains one of the greatest challenges in global ocean biogeochemistry. The goal of the EXport Processes in the Ocean from Remote Sensing (EXPORTS) science plan is to develop a predictive understanding of the export and fate of global ocean primary production and its implications for the Earth's carbon cycle in present and future climates. NASA's satellite ocean-color data record has revolutionized our understanding of global marine systems. EXPORTS is designed to advance the utility of NASA ocean color assets to predict how changes in ocean primary production will impact the global carbon cycle. EXPORTS will create a predictive understanding of both the export of organic carbon from the euphotic zone and its fate in the underlying "twilight zone" (depths of 500 m or more) where variable fractions of exported organic carbon are respired back to CO2. Ultimately, it is the sequestration of deep organic carbon transport that defines the impact of ocean biota on atmospheric CO2 levels and hence climate. EXPORTS will generate a new, detailed understanding of ocean carbon transport processes and pathways linking upper ocean phytoplankton processes to the export and fate of organic matter in the underlying twilight zone using a combination of field campaigns, remote sensing and numerical modeling. The overarching objective for EXPORTS is to ensure the success of future satellite missions by establishing mechanistic relationships between remotely sensed signals and carbon cycle processes. Through a process-oriented approach, EXPORTS will foster new insights on ocean carbon cycling that will maximize its societal relevance and be a key component in the U.S. investment to understand Earth as an integrated system.

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)\\, Working Group 1, 1994: Modelling Results Relating Future Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations to Industrial Emissions (DB1009)

DOE Data Explorer

Enting, I. G.; Wigley, M. L.; Heimann, M.

1995-01-01

This database contains the results of various projections of the relation between future CO2 concentrations and future industrial emissions. These projections were contributed by groups from a number of countries as part of the scientific assessment for the report, "Radiative Forcing of Climate Change" (1994), issued by Working Group 1 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. There were three types of calculations: (1) forward projections, calculating the atmospheric CO2 concentrations resulting from specified emissions scenarios; (2) inverse calculations, determining the emission rates that would be required to achieve stabilization of CO2 concentrations via specified pathways; (3) impulse response function calculations, required for determining Global Warming Potentials. The projections were extrapolations of global carbon cycle models from pre-industrial times (starting at 1765) to 2100 or 2200 A.D. There were two aspects to the exercise: (1) an assessment of the uncertainty due to uncertainties regarding the current carbon budget, and (2) an assessment of the uncertainties arising from differences between models. To separate these effects, a set of standard conditions was used to explore inter-model differences and then a series of sensitivity studies was used to explore the consequences of current uncertainties in the carbon cycle.

Nutrient co-limited Trichodesmium as nitrogen source or sink in a future ocean.

PubMed

Walworth, Nathan G; Fu, Fei-Xue; Lee, Michael D; Cai, Xiaoni; Saito, Mak A; Webb, Eric A; Hutchins, David A

2017-11-27

Nitrogen-fixing (N 2 ) cyanobacteria provide bioavailable nitrogen to vast ocean regions but are in turn limited by iron (Fe) and/or phosphorus (P), which may force them to employ alternative nitrogen acquisition strategies. The adaptive responses of nitrogen-fixers to global-change drivers under nutrient-limited conditions could profoundly alter the current ocean nitrogen and carbon cycles. Here, we show that the globally-important N 2 -fixer Trichodesmium fundamentally shifts nitrogen metabolism towards organic-nitrogen scavenging following long-term high-CO 2 adaptation under iron and/or phosphorus (co)-limitation. Global shifts in transcripts and proteins under high CO 2 /Fe-limited and/or P-limited conditions include decreases in the N 2 -fixing nitrogenase enzyme, coupled with major increases in enzymes that oxidize trimethylamine (TMA). TMA is an abundant, biogeochemically-important organic nitrogen compound that supports rapid Trichodesmium growth while inhibiting N 2 fixation. In a future high-CO 2 ocean, this whole-cell energetic reallocation towards organic nitrogen scavenging and away from N 2 -fixation may reduce new-nitrogen inputs by Trichodesmium , while simultaneously depleting the scarce fixed-nitrogen supplies of nitrogen-limited open ocean ecosystems. Importance Trichodesmium is among the most biogeochemically-significant microorganisms in the ocean, since it supplies up to 50% of the new nitrogen supporting open ocean food webs. We used Trichodesmium cultures adapted to high CO 2 for 7 years followed by additional exposure to iron and/or phosphorus (co)-limitation. We show that 'future ocean' conditions of high CO 2 and concurrent nutrient limitation(s) fundamentally shift nitrogen metabolism away from nitrogen fixation, and instead towards upregulation of organic-nitrogen scavenging pathways. We show that Trichodesmium's responses to projected future ocean conditions include decreases in the nitrogen-fixing nitrogenase enzymes, coupled with major increases in enzymes that oxidize the abundant organic nitrogen source trimethylamine (TMA). Such a shift towards organic nitrogen uptake and away from nitrogen fixation may substantially reduce new-nitrogen inputs by Trichodesmium to the rest of the microbial community in the future high-CO 2 ocean, with potential global implications for ocean carbon and nitrogen cycling. Copyright © 2017 American Society for Microbiology.

Mid-21st century projections of hydroclimate in Western Himalayas and Satluj River basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tiwari, Sarita; Kar, Sarat C.; Bhatla, R.

2018-02-01

The Himalayan climate system is sensitive to global warming and climate change. Regional hydrology and the downstream water flow in the rivers of Himalayan origin may change due to variations in snow and glacier melt in the region. This study examines the mid-21st century climate projections over western Himalayas from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate models under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). All the global climate models used in the present analysis indicate that the study region would be warmer by mid-century. The temperature trends from all the models studied here are statistically significant at 95% confidence interval. Multi-model ensemble spreads show that there are large differences among the models in their projections of future climate with spread in temperature ranging from about 1.5 °C to 5 °C over various areas of western Himalayas in all the seasons. Spread in precipitation projections lies between 0.3 and 1 mm/day in all the seasons. Major shift in the timing of evaporation maxima and minima is noticed. The GFDL_ESM2G model products have been downscaled to Satluj River basin using the weather research and forecast (WRF) model and impact of climate change on streamflow has been studied. The reduction of precipitation during JJAS is expected to be > 3-6 mm/day in RCP8.5 as compared to present climate. It is expected that precipitation amount shall increase over Satluj basin in future (mid-21st century) The soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model has been used to simulate the Satluj streamflow for the present and future climate using GFDL_ESM2G precipitation and temperature data as well as the WRF model downscaled data. The computations using the global model data show that total annual discharge from Satluj will be less in future than that in present climate, especially in peak discharge season (JJAS). The SWAT model with downscaled output indicates that during winter and spring, more discharge shall occur in future (RCP8.5) in Satluj River.

Global Projection of Coastal Exposure Associated with Sea-level Rise beyond Tipping Points

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tawatari, R.; Miyazaki, C.; Iseri, Y.; Kiguchi, M.; Kanae, S.

2015-12-01

Sea-level rise due to global warming becomes a great matter of concern for global coastal area. Additionally, it has reported in fifth report of IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) that deglaciation of Greenland ice sheet and Antarctic ice sheet would occur rapidly and enhance sea-level rise if temperature passes certain "Tipping point". In terms of projecting damage induced by sea-level rise globally, some previous studies focused on duration until mainly 2100. Furthermore long-term estimations on centuries to millennial climatic response of the ice sheets which are supposed to be triggered within this or next century would be also important to think about future climate and lifestyle in coastal . In this study, I estimated the long term sea-level which take into account the tipping points of Greenland ice sheet (1.4℃) as sum of 4 factors (thermal expansion, glacier and ice cap, Greenland ice sheet, Antarctic ice sheet). The sea-level follows 4 representative concentration pathways up to 3000 obtained through literature reviewing since there were limited available sea-level projections up to 3000. I also estimated a number of affected population lives in coastal area up to 3000 with using the estimated sea-level. The cost for damage, adaptation and mitigation would be also discussed. These estimations would be useful when decision-makers propose policies for construction of dikes and proposing mitigation plans for sustainable future. The result indicates there would be large and relatively rapid increases in both sea-level rise and coastal exposure if global mean temperature passes the tipping point of Greenland ice sheet. However the tipping points, melting rate and timescale of response are highly uncertain and still discussed among experts. Thus more precise and credible information is required for further accurate estimation of long-term sea-level rise and population exposure in the future.

Advancing coupled human-earth system models: The integrated Earth System Model Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomson, A. M.; Edmonds, J. A.; Collins, W.; Thornton, P. E.; Hurtt, G. C.; Janetos, A. C.; Jones, A.; Mao, J.; Chini, L. P.; Calvin, K. V.; Bond-Lamberty, B. P.; Shi, X.

2012-12-01

As human and biogeophysical models develop, opportunities for connections between them evolve and can be used to advance our understanding of human-earth systems interaction in the context of a changing climate. One such integration is taking place with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) and the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). A multi-disciplinary, multi-institution team has succeeded in integrating the GCAM integrated assessment model of human activity into CESM to dynamically represent the feedbacks between changing climate and human decision making, in the context of greenhouse gas mitigation policies. The first applications of this capability have focused on the feedbacks between climate change impacts on terrestrial ecosystem productivity and human decisions affecting future land use change, which are in turn connected to human decisions about energy systems and bioenergy production. These experiments have been conducted in the context of the RCP4.5 scenario, one of four pathways of future radiative forcing being used in CMIP5, which constrains future human-induced greenhouse gas emissions from energy and land activities to stabilize radiative forcing at 4.5 W/m2 (~650 ppm CO2 -eq) by 2100. When this pathway is run in GCAM with the climate feedback on terrestrial productivity from CESM, there are implications for both the land use and energy system changes required for stabilization. Early findings indicate that traditional definitions of radiative forcing used in scenario development are missing a critical component of the biogeophysical consequences of land use change and their contribution to effective radiative forcing. Initial full coupling of the two global models has important implications for how climate impacts on terrestrial ecosystems changes the dynamics of future land use change for agriculture and forestry, particularly in the context of a climate mitigation policy designed to reduce emissions from land use as well as energy systems. While these initial experiments have relied on offline coupling methodologies, current and future experiments are utilizing a single model code developed to integrate GCAM into CESM as a component of the land model. This unique capability facilitates many new applications to scientific questions arising from human and biogeophysical systems interaction. Future developments will further integrate the energy system decisions and greenhouse gas emissions as simulated in GCAM with the appropriate climate and land system components of CESM.

Robust signals of future projections of Indian summer monsoon rainfall by IPCC AR5 climate models: Role of seasonal cycle and interannual variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jayasankar, C. B.; Surendran, Sajani; Rajendran, Kavirajan

2015-05-01

Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (Fifth Assessment Report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) coupled global climate model Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 simulations are analyzed to derive robust signals of projected changes in Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) and its variability. Models project clear future temperature increase but diverse changes in ISMR with substantial intermodel spread. Objective measures of interannual variability (IAV) yields nearly equal chance for future increase or decrease. This leads to discrepancy in quantifying changes in ISMR and variability. However, based primarily on the physical association between mean changes in ISMR and its IAV, and objective methods such as k-means clustering with Dunn's validity index, mean seasonal cycle, and reliability ensemble averaging, projections fall into distinct groups. Physically consistent groups of models with the highest reliability project future reduction in the frequency of light rainfall but increase in high to extreme rainfall and thereby future increase in ISMR by 0.74 ± 0.36 mm d-1, along with increased future IAV. These robust estimates of future changes are important for useful impact assessments.

New advances in targeted gastric cancer treatment

PubMed Central

Lazăr, Daniela Cornelia; Tăban, Sorina; Cornianu, Marioara; Faur, Alexandra; Goldiş, Adrian

2016-01-01

Despite a decrease in incidence over past decades, gastric cancer remains a major global health problem. In the more recent period, survival has shown only minor improvement, despite significant advances in diagnostic techniques, surgical and chemotherapeutic approaches, the development of novel therapeutic agents and treatment by multidisciplinary teams. Because multiple genetic mutations, epigenetic alterations, and aberrant molecular signalling pathways are involved in the development of gastric cancers, recent research has attempted to determine the molecular heterogeneity responsible for the processes of carcinogenesis, spread and metastasis. Currently, some novel agents targeting a part of these dysfunctional molecular signalling pathways have already been integrated into the standard treatment of gastric cancer, whereas others remain in phases of investigation within clinical trials. It is essential to identify the unique molecular patterns of tumours and specific biomarkers to develop treatments targeted to the individual tumour behaviour. This review analyses the global impact of gastric cancer, as well as the role of Helicobacter pylori infection and the efficacy of bacterial eradication in preventing gastric cancer development. Furthermore, the paper discusses the currently available targeted treatments and future directions of research using promising novel classes of molecular agents for advanced tumours. PMID:27570417

New advances in targeted gastric cancer treatment.

PubMed

Lazăr, Daniela Cornelia; Tăban, Sorina; Cornianu, Marioara; Faur, Alexandra; Goldiş, Adrian

2016-08-14

Despite a decrease in incidence over past decades, gastric cancer remains a major global health problem. In the more recent period, survival has shown only minor improvement, despite significant advances in diagnostic techniques, surgical and chemotherapeutic approaches, the development of novel therapeutic agents and treatment by multidisciplinary teams. Because multiple genetic mutations, epigenetic alterations, and aberrant molecular signalling pathways are involved in the development of gastric cancers, recent research has attempted to determine the molecular heterogeneity responsible for the processes of carcinogenesis, spread and metastasis. Currently, some novel agents targeting a part of these dysfunctional molecular signalling pathways have already been integrated into the standard treatment of gastric cancer, whereas others remain in phases of investigation within clinical trials. It is essential to identify the unique molecular patterns of tumours and specific biomarkers to develop treatments targeted to the individual tumour behaviour. This review analyses the global impact of gastric cancer, as well as the role of Helicobacter pylori infection and the efficacy of bacterial eradication in preventing gastric cancer development. Furthermore, the paper discusses the currently available targeted treatments and future directions of research using promising novel classes of molecular agents for advanced tumours.

Sustainable development goals for health promotion: a critical frame analysis.

PubMed

Spencer, Grace; Corbin, J Hope; Miedema, Esther

2018-05-25

The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) lay the foundations for supporting global health and international development work for the next 15 years. Thirty years ago, the Ottawa Charter defined health promotion and outlined key principles for global action on health, including the importance of advocating, enabling and mediating for health equity. Advocacy underscores a human right to health and suggests political action to support its attainment. Enabling speaks to health promotion's focus on the empowerment of people and communities to take control over their health and aspirations. Mediation draws attention to the critical intersectoral partnerships required to address health and social inequities. Underpinned by this approach, the aim of this paper is to consider how key health promotion principles, namely, rights, empowerment and partnership feature (and are framed) within the SDGs and to consider how these framings may shape future directions for health promotion. To that end, a critical frame analysis of the Transforming Our World document was conducted. The analysis interrogated varying uses and meanings of partnerships, empowerment and rights (and their connections) within the SDGs. The analysis here presents three framings from the SDGs: (1) a moral code for global action on (in)equity; (2) a future orientation to address global issues yet devoid of history; and (3) a reductionist framing of health as the absence of disease. These framings raise important questions about the underpinning values of the SDGs and pathways to health equity - offering both challenges and opportunities for defining the nature and scope of health promotion.

The effect of future ambient air pollution on human premature mortality to 2100 using output from the ACCMIP model ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silva, Raquel A.; West, J. Jason; Lamarque, Jean-François; Shindell, Drew T.; Collins, William J.; Dalsoren, Stig; Faluvegi, Greg; Folberth, Gerd; Horowitz, Larry W.; Nagashima, Tatsuya; Naik, Vaishali; Rumbold, Steven T.; Sudo, Kengo; Takemura, Toshihiko; Bergmann, Daniel; Cameron-Smith, Philip; Cionni, Irene; Doherty, Ruth M.; Eyring, Veronika; Josse, Beatrice; MacKenzie, Ian A.; Plummer, David; Righi, Mattia; Stevenson, David S.; Strode, Sarah; Szopa, Sophie; Zengast, Guang

2016-08-01

Ambient air pollution from ground-level ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) is associated with premature mortality. Future concentrations of these air pollutants will be driven by natural and anthropogenic emissions and by climate change. Using anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions projected in the four Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCPs), the ACCMIP ensemble of chemistry-climate models simulated future concentrations of ozone and PM2.5 at selected decades between 2000 and 2100. We use output from the ACCMIP ensemble, together with projections of future population and baseline mortality rates, to quantify the human premature mortality impacts of future ambient air pollution. Future air-pollution-related premature mortality in 2030, 2050 and 2100 is estimated for each scenario and for each model using a health impact function based on changes in concentrations of ozone and PM2.5 relative to 2000 and projected future population and baseline mortality rates. Additionally, the global mortality burden of ozone and PM2.5 in 2000 and each future period is estimated relative to 1850 concentrations, using present-day and future population and baseline mortality rates. The change in future ozone concentrations relative to 2000 is associated with excess global premature mortality in some scenarios/periods, particularly in RCP8.5 in 2100 (316 thousand deaths year-1), likely driven by the large increase in methane emissions and by the net effect of climate change projected in this scenario, but it leads to considerable avoided premature mortality for the three other RCPs. However, the global mortality burden of ozone markedly increases from 382 000 (121 000 to 728 000) deaths year-1 in 2000 to between 1.09 and 2.36 million deaths year-1 in 2100, across RCPs, mostly due to the effect of increases in population and baseline mortality rates. PM2.5 concentrations decrease relative to 2000 in all scenarios, due to projected reductions in emissions, and are associated with avoided premature mortality, particularly in 2100: between -2.39 and -1.31 million deaths year-1 for the four RCPs. The global mortality burden of PM2.5 is estimated to decrease from 1.70 (1.30 to 2.10) million deaths year-1 in 2000 to between 0.95 and 1.55 million deaths year-1 in 2100 for the four RCPs due to the combined effect of decreases in PM2.5 concentrations and changes in population and baseline mortality rates. Trends in future air-pollution-related mortality vary regionally across scenarios, reflecting assumptions for economic growth and air pollution control specific to each RCP and region. Mortality estimates differ among chemistry-climate models due to differences in simulated pollutant concentrations, which is the greatest contributor to overall mortality uncertainty for most cases assessed here, supporting the use of model ensembles to characterize uncertainty. Increases in exposed population and baseline mortality rates of respiratory diseases magnify the impact on premature mortality of changes in future air pollutant concentrations and explain why the future global mortality burden of air pollution can exceed the current burden, even where air pollutant concentrations decrease.

The effect of future ambient air pollution on human premature mortality to 2100 using output from the ACCMIP model ensemble.

PubMed

Silva, Raquel A; West, J Jason; Lamarque, Jean-François; Shindell, Drew T; Collins, William J; Dalsoren, Stig; Faluvegi, Greg; Folberth, Gerd; Horowitz, Larry W; Nagashima, Tatsuya; Naik, Vaishali; Rumbold, Steven T; Sudo, Kengo; Takemura, Toshihiko; Bergmann, Daniel; Cameron-Smith, Philip; Cionni, Irene; Doherty, Ruth M; Eyring, Veronika; Josse, Beatrice; MacKenzie, I A; Plummer, David; Righi, Mattia; Stevenson, David S; Strode, Sarah; Szopa, Sophie; Zeng, Guang

2016-01-01

Ambient air pollution from ground-level ozone and fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) is associated with premature mortality. Future concentrations of these air pollutants will be driven by natural and anthropogenic emissions and by climate change. Using anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions projected in the four Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCPs), the ACCMIP ensemble of chemistry-climate models simulated future concentrations of ozone and PM 2.5 at selected decades between 2000 and 2100. We use output from the ACCMIP ensemble, together with projections of future population and baseline mortality rates, to quantify the human premature mortality impacts of future ambient air pollution. Future air pollution-related premature mortality in 2030, 2050 and 2100 is estimated for each scenario and for each model using a health impact function based on changes in concentrations of ozone and PM 2.5 relative to 2000 and projected future population and baseline mortality rates. Additionally, the global mortality burden of ozone and PM 2.5 in 2000 and each future period is estimated relative to 1850 concentrations, using present-day and future population and baseline mortality rates. The change in future ozone concentrations relative to 2000 is associated with excess global premature mortality in some scenarios/periods, particularly in RCP8.5 in 2100 (316 thousand deaths/year), likely driven by the large increase in methane emissions and by the net effect of climate change projected in this scenario, but it leads to considerable avoided premature mortality for the three other RCPs. However, the global mortality burden of ozone markedly increases from 382,000 (121,000 to 728,000) deaths/year in 2000 to between 1.09 and 2.36 million deaths/year in 2100, across RCPs, mostly due to the effect of increases in population and baseline mortality rates. PM 2.5 concentrations decrease relative to 2000 in all scenarios, due to projected reductions in emissions, and are associated with avoided premature mortality, particularly in 2100: between -2.39 and -1.31 million deaths/year for the four RCPs. The global mortality burden of PM 2.5 is estimated to decrease from 1.70 (1.30 to 2.10) million deaths/year in 2000 to between 0.95 and 1.55 million deaths/year in 2100 for the four RCPs, due to the combined effect of decreases in PM 2.5 concentrations and changes in population and baseline mortality rates. Trends in future air pollution-related mortality vary regionally across scenarios, reflecting assumptions for economic growth and air pollution control specific to each RCP and region. Mortality estimates differ among chemistry-climate models due to differences in simulated pollutant concentrations, which is the greatest contributor to overall mortality uncertainty for most cases assessed here, supporting the use of model ensembles to characterize uncertainty. Increases in exposed population and baseline mortality rates of respiratory diseases magnify the impact on premature mortality of changes in future air pollutant concentrations and explain why the future global mortality burden of air pollution can exceed the current burden, even where air pollutant concentrations decrease.

PATHWAYS OF MERCURY EVASION FROM CONTAMINATED WETLANDS: A GLOBALLY IMPORTANT SOURCE OF ATMOSPHERIC MERCURY?

EPA Science Inventory

Mercury (Hg) is a globally occurring pollutant that bioaccumulates and persists in the environment. The global Hg cycle is highly dependant on air/water exchange, as it is one of the primary pathways to deliver Hg to the atmosphere. Although open water systems appear to be net...

Metabolic Biomarkers and Neurodegeneration: A Pathway Enrichment Analysis of Alzheimer's Disease, Parkinson's Disease, and Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis.

PubMed

Kori, Medi; Aydın, Busra; Unal, Semra; Arga, Kazim Yalcin; Kazan, Dilek

2016-11-01

Neurodegenerative diseases such as Alzheimer's disease (AD), Parkinson's disease (PD), and amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) lack robust diagnostics and prognostic biomarkers. Metabolomics is a postgenomics field that offers fresh insights for biomarkers of common complex as well as rare diseases. Using data on metabolite-disease associations published in the previous decade (2006-2016) in PubMed, ScienceDirect, Scopus, and Web of Science, we identified 101 metabolites as putative biomarkers for these three neurodegenerative diseases. Notably, uric acid, choline, creatine, L-glutamine, alanine, creatinine, and N-acetyl-L-aspartate were the shared metabolite signatures among the three diseases. The disease-metabolite-pathway associations pointed out the importance of membrane transport (through ATP binding cassette transporters), particularly of arginine and proline amino acids in all three neurodegenerative diseases. When disease-specific and common metabolic pathways were queried by using the pathway enrichment analyses, we found that alanine, aspartate, glutamate, and purine metabolism might act as alternative pathways to overcome inadequate glucose supply and energy crisis in neurodegeneration. These observations underscore the importance of metabolite-based biomarker research in deciphering the elusive pathophysiology of neurodegenerative diseases. Future research investments in metabolomics of complex diseases might provide new insights on AD, PD, and ALS that continue to place a significant burden on global health.

The 2 °C global warming effect on summer European tourism through different indices.

PubMed

Grillakis, Manolis G; Koutroulis, Aristeidis G; Tsanis, Ioannis K

2016-08-01

Climate and weather patterns are an essential resource for outdoor tourism activities. The projected changes in climate and weather patterns are expected to affect the future state of tourism. The present study aims to quantify the positive or negative effect of a 2 °C global warming on summertime climate comfort in the sense of exercising activities that involve light body activity. The well-established Climate Index for Tourism (CIT) and three variants of the widely used Tourism Climatic Index (TCI) were analyzed. Additionally, a new index based on TCI and CIT was tested and compared against the precious indices. Past and future climate data of five high-resolution regional climate models (RCMs) from different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) of the European Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (Euro-CORDEX) for a +2 °C period were used. The results indicate improvement in the climate comfort for the majority of European areas for the May to October period. For the June to August period, central and northern European areas are projected to improve, while marginal improvement is found for Mediterranean countries. Furthermore, in specific cases of adjacent Mediterranean areas such as the southern Iberian Peninsula, the June to August climate favorability is projected to reduce as a result of the increase to daytime temperature. The use of a set of different indices and different RCMs and RCPs samples a large fraction of the uncertainty that is crucial for providing robust regional impact information due to climate change. The analysis revealed the similarities and the differences in the magnitude of change across the different indices. Moreover, discrepancies were found in the results of different concentration pathways to the +2 °C global warming, with the RCP8.5 projecting more significant changes for some of the analyzed indices. The estimation of the TCI using different timescale climate data did not change the results on tourism significantly.

Quantifying PM2.5-Meteorology Sensitivities in a Global Climate Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Westervelt, D. M.; Horowitz, L. W.; Naik, V.; Tai, A. P. K.; Fiore, A. M.; Mauzerall, D. L.

2016-01-01

Climate change can influence fine particulate matter concentrations (PM2.5) through changes in air pollution meteorology. Knowledge of the extent to which climate change can exacerbate or alleviate air pollution in the future is needed for robust climate and air pollution policy decision-making. To examine the influence of climate on PM2.5, we use the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Coupled Model version 3 (GFDL CM3), a fully-coupled chemistry-climate model, combined with future emissions and concentrations provided by the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). For each of the RCPs, we conduct future simulations in which emissions of aerosols and their precursors are held at 2005 levels while other climate forcing agents evolve in time, such that only climate (and thus meteorology) can influence PM2.5 surface concentrations. We find a small increase in global, annual mean PM2.5 of about 0.21 micro-g/cu m3 (5%) for RCP8.5, a scenario with maximum warming. Changes in global mean PM2.5 are at a maximum in the fall and are mainly controlled by sulfate followed by organic aerosol with minimal influence of black carbon. RCP2.6 is the only scenario that projects a decrease in global PM2.5 with future climate changes, albeit only by -0.06 micro-g/cu m (1.5%) by the end of the 21st century. Regional and local changes in PM2.5 are larger, reaching upwards of 2 micro-g/cu m for polluted (eastern China) and dusty (western Africa) locations on an annually averaged basis in RCP8.5. Using multiple linear regression, we find that future PM2.5 concentrations are most sensitive to local temperature, followed by surface wind and precipitation. PM2.5 concentrations are robustly positively associated with temperature, while negatively related with precipitation and wind speed. Present-day (2006-2015) modeled sensitivities of PM2.5 to meteorological variables are evaluated against observations and found to agree reasonably well with observed sensitivities (within 10e50% over the eastern United States for several variables), although the modeled PM2.5 is less sensitive to precipitation than in the observations due to weaker convective scavenging. We conclude that the hypothesized "climate penalty" of future increases in PM2.5 is relatively minor on a global scale compared to the influence of emissions on PM2.5 concentrations.

Analyzing the greenhouse gas impact potential of smallholder development actions across a global food security program

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grewer, Uwe; Nash, Julie; Gurwick, Noel; Bockel, Louis; Galford, Gillian; Richards, Meryl; Costa Junior, Ciniro; White, Julianna; Pirolli, Gillian; Wollenberg, Eva

2018-04-01

This article analyses the greenhouse gas (GHG) impact potential of improved management practices and technologies for smallholder agriculture promoted under a global food security development program. Under ‘business-as-usual’ development, global studies on the future of agriculture to 2050 project considerable increases in total food production and cultivated area. Conventional cropland intensification and conversion of natural vegetation typically result in increased GHG emissions and loss of carbon stocks. There is a strong need to understand the potential greenhouse gas impacts of agricultural development programs intended to achieve large-scale change, and to identify pathways of smallholder agricultural development that can achieve food security and agricultural production growth without drastic increases in GHG emissions. In an analysis of 134 crop and livestock production systems in 15 countries with reported impacts on 4.8 million ha, improved management practices and technologies by smallholder farmers significantly reduce GHG emission intensity of agricultural production, increase yields and reduce post-harvest losses, while either decreasing or only moderately increasing net GHG emissions per area. Investments in both production and post-harvest stages meaningfully reduced GHG emission intensity, contributing to low emission development. We present average impacts on net GHG emissions per hectare and GHG emission intensity, while not providing detailed statistics of GHG impacts at scale that are associated to additional uncertainties. While reported improvements in smallholder systems effectively reduce future GHG emissions compared to business-as-usual development, these contributions are insufficient to significantly reduce net GHG emission in agriculture beyond current levels, particularly if future agricultural production grows at projected rates.

Quantifying uncertainties of permafrost carbon-climate feedbacks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burke, Eleanor J.; Ekici, Altug; Huang, Ye; Chadburn, Sarah E.; Huntingford, Chris; Ciais, Philippe; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Peng, Shushi; Krinner, Gerhard

2017-06-01

The land surface models JULES (Joint UK Land Environment Simulator, two versions) and ORCHIDEE-MICT (Organizing Carbon and Hydrology in Dynamic Ecosystems), each with a revised representation of permafrost carbon, were coupled to the Integrated Model Of Global Effects of climatic aNomalies (IMOGEN) intermediate-complexity climate and ocean carbon uptake model. IMOGEN calculates atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) and local monthly surface climate for a given emission scenario with the land-atmosphere CO2 flux exchange from either JULES or ORCHIDEE-MICT. These simulations include feedbacks associated with permafrost carbon changes in a warming world. Both IMOGEN-JULES and IMOGEN-ORCHIDEE-MICT were forced by historical and three alternative future-CO2-emission scenarios. Those simulations were performed for different climate sensitivities and regional climate change patterns based on 22 different Earth system models (ESMs) used for CMIP3 (phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project), allowing us to explore climate uncertainties in the context of permafrost carbon-climate feedbacks. Three future emission scenarios consistent with three representative concentration pathways were used: RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Paired simulations with and without frozen carbon processes were required to quantify the impact of the permafrost carbon feedback on climate change. The additional warming from the permafrost carbon feedback is between 0.2 and 12 % of the change in the global mean temperature (ΔT) by the year 2100 and 0.5 and 17 % of ΔT by 2300, with these ranges reflecting differences in land surface models, climate models and emissions pathway. As a percentage of ΔT, the permafrost carbon feedback has a greater impact on the low-emissions scenario (RCP2.6) than on the higher-emissions scenarios, suggesting that permafrost carbon should be taken into account when evaluating scenarios of heavy mitigation and stabilization. Structural differences between the land surface models (particularly the representation of the soil carbon decomposition) are found to be a larger source of uncertainties than differences in the climate response. Inertia in the permafrost carbon system means that the permafrost carbon response depends on the temporal trajectory of warming as well as the absolute amount of warming. We propose a new policy-relevant metric - the frozen carbon residence time (FCRt) in years - that can be derived from these complex land surface models and used to quantify the permafrost carbon response given any pathway of global temperature change.

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency strategic plan for evaluating the toxicity of chemicals.

PubMed

Firestone, Michael; Kavlock, Robert; Zenick, Hal; Kramer, Melissa

2010-02-01

In the 2007 report Toxicity Testing in the 21st Century: A Vision and a Strategy, the U.S. National Academy of Sciences envisioned a major transition in toxicity testing from cumbersome, expensive, and lengthy in vivo testing with qualitative endpoints, to in vitro robotic high-throughput screening with mechanistic quantitative parameters. Recognizing the need for agencies to partner and collaborate to ensure global harmonization, standardization, quality control and information sharing, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency is leading by example and has established an intra-agency Future of Toxicity Testing Workgroup (FTTW). This workgroup has produced an ambitious blueprint for incorporating this new scientific paradigm to change the way chemicals are screened and evaluated for toxicity. Four main components of this strategy are discussed, as follows: (1) the impact and benefits of various types of regulatory activities, (2) chemical screening and prioritization, (3) toxicity pathway-based risk assessment, and (4) institutional transition. The new paradigm is predicated on the discovery of molecular perturbation pathways at the in vitro level that predict adverse health effects from xenobiotics exposure, and then extrapolating those events to the tissue, organ, or whole organisms by computational models. Research on these pathways will be integrated and compiled using the latest technology with the cooperation of global agencies, industry, and other stakeholders. The net result will be that chemical toxicity screening will become more efficient and cost-effective, include real-world exposure assessments, and eliminate currently used uncertainty factors.

Leveraging cell type specific regulatory regions to detect SNPs associated with tissue factor pathway inhibitor plasma levels.

PubMed

Dennis, Jessica; Medina-Rivera, Alejandra; Truong, Vinh; Antounians, Lina; Zwingerman, Nora; Carrasco, Giovana; Strug, Lisa; Wells, Phil; Trégouët, David-Alexandre; Morange, Pierre-Emmanuel; Wilson, Michael D; Gagnon, France

2017-07-01

Tissue factor pathway inhibitor (TFPI) regulates the formation of intravascular blood clots, which manifest clinically as ischemic heart disease, ischemic stroke, and venous thromboembolism (VTE). TFPI plasma levels are heritable, but the genetics underlying TFPI plasma level variability are poorly understood. Herein we report the first genome-wide association scan (GWAS) of TFPI plasma levels, conducted in 251 individuals from five extended French-Canadian Families ascertained on VTE. To improve discovery, we also applied a hypothesis-driven (HD) GWAS approach that prioritized single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in (1) hemostasis pathway genes, and (2) vascular endothelial cell (EC) regulatory regions, which are among the highest expressers of TFPI. Our GWAS identified 131 SNPs with suggestive evidence of association (P-value < 5 × 10 -8 ), but no SNPs reached the genome-wide threshold for statistical significance. Hemostasis pathway genes were not enriched for TFPI plasma level associated SNPs (global hypothesis test P-value = 0.147), but EC regulatory regions contained more TFPI plasma level associated SNPs than expected by chance (global hypothesis test P-value = 0.046). We therefore stratified our genome-wide SNPs, prioritizing those in EC regulatory regions via stratified false discovery rate (sFDR) control, and reranked the SNPs by q-value. The minimum q-value was 0.27, and the top-ranked SNPs did not show association evidence in the MARTHA replication sample of 1,033 unrelated VTE cases. Although this study did not result in new loci for TFPI, our work lays out a strategy to utilize epigenomic data in prioritization schemes for future GWAS studies. © 2017 WILEY PERIODICALS, INC.

Dengue virus induces and requires glycolysis for optimal replication.

PubMed

Fontaine, Krystal A; Sanchez, Erica L; Camarda, Roman; Lagunoff, Michael

2015-02-01

Viruses rely on host cellular metabolism to provide the energy and biosynthetic building blocks required for their replication. Dengue virus (DENV), a member of the Flaviviridae family, is one of the most important arthropod-borne human pathogens worldwide. We analyzed global intracellular metabolic changes associated with DENV infection of primary human cells. Our metabolic profiling data suggested that central carbon metabolism, particularly glycolysis, is strikingly altered during a time course of DENV infection. Glucose consumption is increased during DENV infection and depriving DENV-infected cells of exogenous glucose had a pronounced impact on viral replication. Furthermore, the expression of both glucose transporter 1 and hexokinase 2, the first enzyme of glycolysis, is upregulated in DENV-infected cells. Pharmacologically inhibiting the glycolytic pathway dramatically reduced DENV RNA synthesis and infectious virion production, revealing a requirement for glycolysis during DENV infection. Thus, these experiments suggest that DENV induces the glycolytic pathway to support efficient viral replication. This study raises the possibility that metabolic inhibitors, such as those that target glycolysis, could be used to treat DENV infection in the future. Approximately 400 million people are infected with dengue virus (DENV) annually, and more than one-third of the global population is at risk of infection. As there are currently no effective vaccines or specific antiviral therapies for DENV, we investigated the impact DENV has on the host cellular metabolome to identify metabolic pathways that are critical for the virus life cycle. We report an essential role for glycolysis during DENV infection. DENV activates the glycolytic pathway, and inhibition of glycolysis significantly blocks infectious DENV production. This study provides further evidence that viral metabolomic analyses can lead to the discovery of novel therapeutic targets to block the replication of medically important human pathogens. Copyright © 2015, American Society for Microbiology. All Rights Reserved.

Asymmetric response of tropical cyclone activity to global warming over the North Atlantic and western North Pacific from CMIP5 model projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Doo-Sun R.; Ho, Chang-Hoi; Chan, Johnny C. L.; Ha, Kyung-Ja; Kim, Hyeong-Seog; Kim, Jinwon; Kim, Joo-Hong

2017-01-01

Recent improvements in the theoretical understanding of the relationship between tropical cyclones (TCs) and their large-scale environments have resulted in significant improvements in the skill for forecasting TC activity at daily and seasonal time-scales. However, future changes in TC activity under a warmer climate remain uncertain, particularly in terms of TC genesis locations and subsequent pathways. Applying a track-pattern-based statistical model to 22 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) model runs for the historical period and the future period corresponding to the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 emissions scenarios, this study shows that in future climate conditions, TC passage frequency will decrease over the North Atlantic, particularly in the Gulf of Mexico, but will increase over the western North Pacific, especially that hits Korea and Japan. Unlike previous studies based on fine-resolution models, an ensemble mean of CMIP5 models projects an increase in TC activity in the western North Pacific, which is owing to enhanced subtropical deep convection and favorable dynamic conditions therein in conjunction with the expansion of the tropics and vice versa for the North Atlantic. Our results suggest that North America will experience less TC landfalls, while northeast Asia will experience more TCs than in the present-day climate.

Asymmetric response of tropical cyclone activity to global warming over the North Atlantic and western North Pacific from CMIP5 model projections.

PubMed

Park, Doo-Sun R; Ho, Chang-Hoi; Chan, Johnny C L; Ha, Kyung-Ja; Kim, Hyeong-Seog; Kim, Jinwon; Kim, Joo-Hong

2017-01-30

Recent improvements in the theoretical understanding of the relationship between tropical cyclones (TCs) and their large-scale environments have resulted in significant improvements in the skill for forecasting TC activity at daily and seasonal time-scales. However, future changes in TC activity under a warmer climate remain uncertain, particularly in terms of TC genesis locations and subsequent pathways. Applying a track-pattern-based statistical model to 22 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) model runs for the historical period and the future period corresponding to the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 emissions scenarios, this study shows that in future climate conditions, TC passage frequency will decrease over the North Atlantic, particularly in the Gulf of Mexico, but will increase over the western North Pacific, especially that hits Korea and Japan. Unlike previous studies based on fine-resolution models, an ensemble mean of CMIP5 models projects an increase in TC activity in the western North Pacific, which is owing to enhanced subtropical deep convection and favorable dynamic conditions therein in conjunction with the expansion of the tropics and vice versa for the North Atlantic. Our results suggest that North America will experience less TC landfalls, while northeast Asia will experience more TCs than in the present-day climate.

Proposal of global flood vulnerability scenarios for evaluating future potential flood losses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kinoshita, Y.; Tanoue, M.; Watanabe, S.; Hirabayashi, Y.

2015-12-01

Flooding is one of the most hazardous and damaging natural disasters causing serious economic loss and casualties across the world (Jongman et al., 2015). Previous studies showed that the global temperature increase affects regional weather pattern, and several general circulation model (GCM) simulations suggest the increase of flood events in both frequency and magnitude in many parts of the world (Hirabayashi et al., 2013). Effective adaptation to potential flood risks under the warming climate requires an in-depth understanding of both the physical and socioeconomic contributors of the flood risk. To assess the realistic future potential flood risk, future sophisticated vulnerability scenarios associated with the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) are necessary. In this study we propose a new future vulnerability scenarios in mortality. Our vulnerability scenarios are constructed based on the modeled flood exposure (population potentially suffered by flooding) and a past from 1980 to 2005. All the flood fatality data were classified according to four income levels (high, mid-high, mid-low and low). Our proposed scenarios have three pathways regarding to SSPs; High efficiency (HE) scenario (SSP1, SSP4 (rich country) and SSP5), Medium efficiency (ME) scenario (SSP2), and Low efficiency (LE) scenario (SSP3 and SSP4 (poor country)). The maximum mortality protection level on each category was detected by applying exponential curve fitting with offset term. Slopes in the HE scenario are assumed to be equal to slopes estimated by regression analysis in each category. The slope in the HE scenario is defined by the mean value of all countries' slope value that is approximately -0.33 mortality decreases per year. The EM-DAT mortality data shows a decreasing trend in time in almost all of the countries. Although mortalities in some countries show an increasing trend, this is because these countries were affected by once-in-hundred-years floods after 1990's. The slope in the ME scenario are half of that in the HE scenario, and a quarter in the LE scenario. In addition, we set three categories depending on mortality level. Our proposed vulnerability scenarios would enable us to reasonably replicate self-sustained vulnerability change against flood hazard associated with the SSPs.

Whole genome survey of coding SNPs reveals a reproducible pathway determinant of Parkinson disease

PubMed Central

Srinivasan, Balaji S; Doostzadeh, Jaleh; Absalan, Farnaz; Mohandessi, Sharareh; Jalili, Roxana; Bigdeli, Saharnaz; Wang, Justin; Mahadevan, Jaydev; Lee, Caroline LG; Davis, Ronald W; William Langston, J; Ronaghi, Mostafa

2009-01-01

It is quickly becoming apparent that situating human variation in a pathway context is crucial to understanding its phenotypic significance. Toward this end, we have developed a general method for finding pathways associated with traits that control for pathway size. We have applied this method to a new whole genome survey of coding SNP variation in 187 patients afflicted with Parkinson disease (PD) and 187 controls. We show that our dataset provides an independent replication of the axon guidance association recently reported by Lesnick et al. [PLoS Genet 2007;3:e98], and also indicates that variation in the ubiquitin-mediated proteolysis and T-cell receptor signaling pathways may predict PD susceptibility. Given this result, it is reasonable to hypothesize that pathway associations are more replicable than individual SNP associations in whole genome association studies. However, this hypothesis is complicated by a detailed comparison of our dataset to the second recent PD association study by Fung et al. [Lancet Neurol 2006;5:911–916]. Surprisingly, we find that the axon guidance pathway does not rank at the very top of the Fung dataset after controlling for pathway size. More generally, in comparing the studies, we find that SNP frequencies replicate well despite technologically different assays, but that both SNP and pathway associations are globally uncorrelated across studies. We thus have a situation in which an association between axon guidance pathway variation and PD has been found in 2 out of 3 studies. We conclude by relating this seeming inconsistency to the molecular heterogeneity of PD, and suggest future analyses that may resolve such discrepancies. PMID:18853455

Engineering redox homeostasis to develop efficient alcohol-producing microbial cell factories.

PubMed

Zhao, Chunhua; Zhao, Qiuwei; Li, Yin; Zhang, Yanping

2017-06-24

The biosynthetic pathways of most alcohols are linked to intracellular redox homeostasis, which is crucial for life. This crucial balance is primarily controlled by the generation of reducing equivalents, as well as the (reduction)-oxidation metabolic cycle and the thiol redox homeostasis system. As a main oxidation pathway of reducing equivalents, the biosynthesis of most alcohols includes redox reactions, which are dependent on cofactors such as NADH or NADPH. Thus, when engineering alcohol-producing strains, the availability of cofactors and redox homeostasis must be considered. In this review, recent advances on the engineering of cellular redox homeostasis systems to accelerate alcohol biosynthesis are summarized. Recent approaches include improving cofactor availability, manipulating the affinity of redox enzymes to specific cofactors, as well as globally controlling redox reactions, indicating the power of these approaches, and opening a path towards improving the production of a number of different industrially-relevant alcohols in the near future.

The Burn Wound Microenvironment

PubMed Central

Rose, Lloyd F.; Chan, Rodney K.

2016-01-01

Significance: While the survival rate of the severely burned patient has improved significantly, relatively little progress has been made in treatment or prevention of burn-induced long-term sequelae, such as contraction and fibrosis. Recent Advances: Our knowledge of the molecular pathways involved in burn wounds has increased dramatically, and technological advances now allow large-scale genomic studies, providing a global view of wound healing processes. Critical Issues: Translating findings from a large number of in vitro and preclinical animal studies into clinical practice represents a gap in our understanding, and the failures of a number of clinical trials suggest that targeting single pathways or cytokines may not be the best approach. Significant opportunities for improvement exist. Future Directions: Study of the underlying molecular influences of burn wound healing progression will undoubtedly continue as an active research focus. Increasing our knowledge of these processes will identify additional therapeutic targets, supporting informed clinical studies that translate into clinical relevance and practice. PMID:26989577

Climate impacts of geoengineering in a delayed mitigation scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tilmes, S.; Sanderson, B. M.; O'Neill, B. C.

2016-08-01

Decarbonization in the immediate future is required to limit global mean temperature (GMT) increase to 2°C relative to preindustrial conditions, if geoengineering is not considered. Here we use the Community Earth System Model (CESM) to investigate climate outcomes if no mitigation is undertaken until GMT has reached 2°C. We find that late decarbonization in CESM without applying stratospheric sulfur injection (SSI) leads to a peak temperature increase of 3°C and GMT remains above 2° for 160 years. An additional gradual increase and then decrease of SSI over this period reaching about 1.5 times the aerosol burden resulting from the Mount Pinatubo eruption in 1992 would limit the increase in GMT to 2.0° for the specific pathway and model. SSI produces mean and extreme temperatures in CESM comparable to an early decarbonization pathway, but aridity is not mitigated to the same extent.

Climate Impacts of Geoengineering in a Delayed Mitigation Scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tilmes, S.; Sanderson, B. M.; O'Neill, B. C.

2016-12-01

Decarbonization in the immediate future is required to limit global mean temperature (GMT) increase to 2 degrees C relative to pre-industrial conditions, if geoengineering is not considered. Here we use the Community Earth System Model (CESM) to investigate climate outcomes if no mitigation is undertaken until GMT has reached 2 degree C. We find that late decarbonization (LD) in CESM without applying stratospheric sulfur injection (SSI) leads to a peak temperature increase of 3 degree C and GMT remains above 2 degrees for 160 years. An additional gradual increase and then decrease of SSI over this period reaching about 1.5 times the aerosol burden resulting from the Mt Pinatubo eruption in 1992 would limit the increase in GMT to 2.0 degrees for the specific pathway and model. SSI produces mean and extreme temperatures in CESM comparable to an early decarbonization pathway, but aridity is not mitigated to the same extent.

Polluted Pathways: Mechanisms of Metabolic Disruption by Endocrine Disrupting Chemicals.

PubMed

Mimoto, Mizuho S; Nadal, Angel; Sargis, Robert M

2017-06-01

Environmental toxicants are increasingly implicated in the global decline in metabolic health. Focusing on diabetes, herein, the molecular and cellular mechanisms by which metabolism disrupting chemicals (MDCs) impair energy homeostasis are discussed. Emerging data implicate MDC perturbations in a variety of pathways as contributors to metabolic disease pathogenesis, with effects in diverse tissues regulating fuel utilization. Potentiation of traditional metabolic risk factors, such as caloric excess, and emerging threats to metabolism, such as disruptions in circadian rhythms, are important areas of current and future MDC research. Increasing evidence also implicates deleterious effects of MDCs on metabolic programming that occur during vulnerable developmental windows, such as in utero and early post-natal life as well as pregnancy. Recent insights into the mechanisms by which MDCs alter energy homeostasis will advance the field's ability to predict interactions with classical metabolic disease risk factors and empower studies utilizing targeted therapeutics to treat MDC-mediated diabetes.

Climate change impacts on human health over Europe through its effect on air quality.

PubMed

Doherty, Ruth M; Heal, Mathew R; O'Connor, Fiona M

2017-12-05

This review examines the current literature on the effects of future emissions and climate change on particulate matter (PM) and O 3 air quality and on the consequent health impacts, with a focus on Europe. There is considerable literature on the effects of climate change on O 3 but fewer studies on the effects of climate change on PM concentrations. Under the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 5th assessment report (AR5) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), background O 3 entering Europe is expected to decrease under most scenarios due to higher water vapour concentrations in a warmer climate. However, under the extreme pathway RCP8.5 higher (more than double) methane (CH 4 ) abundances lead to increases in background O 3 that offset the O 3 decrease due to climate change especially for the 2100 period. Regionally, in polluted areas with high levels of nitrogen oxides (NO x ), elevated surface temperatures and humidities yield increases in surface O 3 - termed the O 3 climate penalty - especially in southern Europe. The O 3 response is larger for metrics that represent the higher end of the O 3 distribution, such as daily maximum O 3 . Future changes in PM concentrations due to climate change are much less certain, although several recent studies also suggest a PM climate penalty due to high temperatures and humidity and reduced precipitation in northern mid-latitude land regions in 2100.A larger number of studies have examined both future climate and emissions changes under the RCP scenarios. Under these pathways the impact of emission changes on air quality out to the 2050s will be larger than that due to climate change, because of large reductions in emissions of O 3 and PM pollutant precursor emissions and the more limited climate change response itself. Climate change will also affect climate extreme events such as heatwaves. Air pollution episodes are associated with stagnation events and sometimes heat waves. Air quality during the 2003 heatwave over Europe has been examined in numerous studies and mechanisms for enhancing O 3 have been identified.There are few studies on health effects associated with climate change impacts alone on air quality, but these report higher O 3 -related health burdens in polluted populated regions and greater PM 2.5 health burdens in these emission regions. Studies that examine the combined impacts of climate change and anthropogenic emissions change under the RCP scenarios report reductions in global and European premature O 3 -respiratory related and PM mortalities arising from the large decreases in precursor emissions. Under RCP 8.5 the large increase in CH 4 leads to global and European excess O 3 -respiratory related mortalities in 2100. For future health effects, besides uncertainty in future O 3 and particularly PM concentrations, there is also uncertainty in risk estimates such as effect modification by temperature on pollutant-response relationships and potential future adaptation that would alter exposure risk.

The Future of Air Conditioning for Buildings - Executive Summary

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Goetzler, William; Guernsey, Matt; Young, J.

2016-07-01

The Building Technologies Office (BTO), within the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, works with researchers and industry to develop and deploy technologies that can substantially reduce energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in residential and commercial buildings. Air conditioning (A/C) systems in buildings contribute to GHG emissions both directly through refrigerant emissions, as well as indirectly through fossil fuel combustion for power generation. BTO promotes pre-competitive research and development (R&D) on next-generation HVAC technologies that support the phase down of hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) production and consumption, as well as cost-effective energy efficiency improvements.more » Over the past several decades, product costs and lifecycle cooling costs have declined substantially in many global markets due to improved, higher-volume manufacturing and higher energy efficiency driven by R&D investments and efficiency policies including minimum efficiency standards and labeling programs.1 This report characterizes the current landscape and trends in the global A/C market, including discussion of both direct and indirect climate impacts, and potential global warming impacts from growing global A/C usage. The report also documents solutions that can help achieve international goals for energy efficiency and GHG emissions reductions. The solutions include pathways related to low-global warming potential2 (GWP) refrigerants, energy efficiency innovations, long-term R&D initiatives, and regulatory actions. DOE provides, with this report, a fact-based vision for the future of A/C use around the world. DOE intends for this vision to reflect a broad and balanced aggregation of perspectives. DOE brings together this content in an effort to support dialogue within the international community and help keep key facts and objectives at the forefront among the many important discussions.« less

Time course of gene expression during mouse skeletal muscle hypertrophy

PubMed Central

Lee, Jonah D.; England, Jonathan H.; Esser, Karyn A.; McCarthy, John J.

2013-01-01

The purpose of this study was to perform a comprehensive transcriptome analysis during skeletal muscle hypertrophy to identify signaling pathways that are operative throughout the hypertrophic response. Global gene expression patterns were determined from microarray results on days 1, 3, 5, 7, 10, and 14 during plantaris muscle hypertrophy induced by synergist ablation in adult mice. Principal component analysis and the number of differentially expressed genes (cutoffs ≥2-fold increase or ≥50% decrease compared with control muscle) revealed three gene expression patterns during overload-induced hypertrophy: early (1 day), intermediate (3, 5, and 7 days), and late (10 and 14 days) patterns. Based on the robust changes in total RNA content and in the number of differentially expressed genes, we focused our attention on the intermediate gene expression pattern. Ingenuity Pathway Analysis revealed a downregulation of genes encoding components of the branched-chain amino acid degradation pathway during hypertrophy. Among these genes, five were predicted by Ingenuity Pathway Analysis or previously shown to be regulated by the transcription factor Kruppel-like factor-15, which was also downregulated during hypertrophy. Moreover, the integrin-linked kinase signaling pathway was activated during hypertrophy, and the downregulation of muscle-specific micro-RNA-1 correlated with the upregulation of five predicted targets associated with the integrin-linked kinase pathway. In conclusion, we identified two novel pathways that may be involved in muscle hypertrophy, as well as two upstream regulators (Kruppel-like factor-15 and micro-RNA-1) that provide targets for future studies investigating the importance of these pathways in muscle hypertrophy. PMID:23869057

Time course of gene expression during mouse skeletal muscle hypertrophy.

PubMed

Chaillou, Thomas; Lee, Jonah D; England, Jonathan H; Esser, Karyn A; McCarthy, John J

2013-10-01

The purpose of this study was to perform a comprehensive transcriptome analysis during skeletal muscle hypertrophy to identify signaling pathways that are operative throughout the hypertrophic response. Global gene expression patterns were determined from microarray results on days 1, 3, 5, 7, 10, and 14 during plantaris muscle hypertrophy induced by synergist ablation in adult mice. Principal component analysis and the number of differentially expressed genes (cutoffs ≥2-fold increase or ≥50% decrease compared with control muscle) revealed three gene expression patterns during overload-induced hypertrophy: early (1 day), intermediate (3, 5, and 7 days), and late (10 and 14 days) patterns. Based on the robust changes in total RNA content and in the number of differentially expressed genes, we focused our attention on the intermediate gene expression pattern. Ingenuity Pathway Analysis revealed a downregulation of genes encoding components of the branched-chain amino acid degradation pathway during hypertrophy. Among these genes, five were predicted by Ingenuity Pathway Analysis or previously shown to be regulated by the transcription factor Kruppel-like factor-15, which was also downregulated during hypertrophy. Moreover, the integrin-linked kinase signaling pathway was activated during hypertrophy, and the downregulation of muscle-specific micro-RNA-1 correlated with the upregulation of five predicted targets associated with the integrin-linked kinase pathway. In conclusion, we identified two novel pathways that may be involved in muscle hypertrophy, as well as two upstream regulators (Kruppel-like factor-15 and micro-RNA-1) that provide targets for future studies investigating the importance of these pathways in muscle hypertrophy.

Stabilization of atmospheric carbon dioxide via zero emissions—An alternative way to a stable global environment. Part 2: A practical zero-emissions scenario

PubMed Central

MATSUNO, Taroh; MARUYAMA, Koki; TSUTSUI, Junichi

2012-01-01

Following Part 1, a comparison of CO2-emissions pathways between “zero-emissions stabilization (Z-stabilization)” and traditional stabilization is made under more realistic conditions that take into account the radiative forcings of other greenhouse gases and aerosols with the constraint that the temperature rise must not exceed 2 ℃ above the preindustrial level. It is shown that the findings in Part 1 on the merits of Z-stabilization hold under the more realistic conditions. The results clarify the scientific basis of the policy claim of 50% reduction of the world CO2 emissions by 2050. Since the highest greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration and temperature occur only temporarily in Z-stabilization pathways, we may slightly relax the upper limit of the temperature rise. We can then search for a scenario with larger emissions in the 21st century; such a scenario may have potential for practical application. It is suggested that in this Z-stabilization pathway, larger emissions in the near future may be important from a socioeconomic viewpoint. PMID:22850728

Bridging the Gap between Gut Microbial Dysbiosis and Cardiovascular Diseases.

PubMed

Lau, Kimberley; Srivatsav, Varun; Rizwan, Ayesha; Nashed, Andrew; Liu, Rui; Shen, Rui; Akhtar, Mahmood

2017-08-10

The human gut is heavily colonized by a community of microbiota, primarily bacteria, that exists in a symbiotic relationship with the host and plays a critical role in maintaining host homeostasis. The consumption of a high-fat (HF) diet has been shown to induce gut dysbiosis and reduce intestinal integrity. Recent studies have revealed that dysbiosis contributes to the progression of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) by promoting two major CVD risk factors-atherosclerosis and hypertension. Imbalances in host-microbial interaction impair homeostatic mechanisms that regulate health and can activate multiple pathways leading to CVD risk factor progression. Dysbiosis has been implicated in the development of atherosclerosis through metabolism-independent and metabolite-dependent pathways. This review will illustrate how these pathways contribute to the various stages of atherosclerotic plaque progression. In addition, dysbiosis can promote hypertension through vascular fibrosis and an alteration of vascular tone. As CVD is the number one cause of death globally, investigating the gut microbiota as a locus of intervention presents a novel and clinically relevant avenue for future research, with vast therapeutic potential.

Bridging the Gap between Gut Microbial Dysbiosis and Cardiovascular Diseases

PubMed Central

Lau, Kimberley; Srivatsav, Varun; Rizwan, Ayesha; Nashed, Andrew; Liu, Rui; Shen, Rui; Akhtar, Mahmood

2017-01-01

The human gut is heavily colonized by a community of microbiota, primarily bacteria, that exists in a symbiotic relationship with the host and plays a critical role in maintaining host homeostasis. The consumption of a high-fat (HF) diet has been shown to induce gut dysbiosis and reduce intestinal integrity. Recent studies have revealed that dysbiosis contributes to the progression of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) by promoting two major CVD risk factors—atherosclerosis and hypertension. Imbalances in host–microbial interaction impair homeostatic mechanisms that regulate health and can activate multiple pathways leading to CVD risk factor progression. Dysbiosis has been implicated in the development of atherosclerosis through metabolism-independent and metabolite-dependent pathways. This review will illustrate how these pathways contribute to the various stages of atherosclerotic plaque progression. In addition, dysbiosis can promote hypertension through vascular fibrosis and an alteration of vascular tone. As CVD is the number one cause of death globally, investigating the gut microbiota as a locus of intervention presents a novel and clinically relevant avenue for future research, with vast therapeutic potential. PMID:28796176

Stabilization of atmospheric carbon dioxide via zero emissions--an alternative way to a stable global environment. Part 2: a practical zero-emissions scenario.

PubMed

Matsuno, Taroh; Maruyama, Koki; Tsutsui, Junichi

2012-01-01

Following Part 1, a comparison of CO(2)-emissions pathways between "zero-emissions stabilization (Z-stabilization)" and traditional stabilization is made under more realistic conditions that take into account the radiative forcings of other greenhouse gases and aerosols with the constraint that the temperature rise must not exceed 2 °C above the preindustrial level. It is shown that the findings in Part 1 on the merits of Z-stabilization hold under the more realistic conditions. The results clarify the scientific basis of the policy claim of 50% reduction of the world CO(2) emissions by 2050. Since the highest greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration and temperature occur only temporarily in Z-stabilization pathways, we may slightly relax the upper limit of the temperature rise. We can then search for a scenario with larger emissions in the 21st century; such a scenario may have potential for practical application. It is suggested that in this Z-stabilization pathway, larger emissions in the near future may be important from a socioeconomic viewpoint.

Plant communities as drivers of soil respiration: pathways, mechanisms, and significance for global change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Metcalfe, D. B.; Fisher, R. A.; Wardle, D. A.

2011-03-01

Understanding the impacts of plant community characteristics on soil carbon dioxide efflux (R) is a key prerequisite for accurate prediction of the future carbon balance of terrestrial ecosystems under climate change. In this review, we synthesize relevant information from a wide spectrum of sources to evaluate the current state of knowledge about plant community effects on R, examine how this information is incorporated into global climate models, and highlight priorities for future research. Plant species consistently exhibit cohesive suites of traits, linked to contrasting life history strategies, which exert a variety of impacts on R. As such, we propose that plant community shifts towards dominance by fast growing plants with nutrient rich litter could provide a major, though often neglected, positive feedback to climate change. Within vegetation types, belowground carbon flux will mainly be controlled by photosynthesis, while amongst vegetation types this flux will be more dependent upon the specific characteristics of the plant life form. We also make the case that community composition, rather than diversity, is usually the dominant control on ecosystem processes in natural systems. Individual species impacts on R may be largest where the species accounts for most of the biomass in the ecosystem, has very distinct traits to the rest of the community, or modulates the occurrence of major natural disturbances. We show that climate-vegetation models incorporate a number of pathways whereby plants can affect R, but that simplifications regarding allocation schemes and drivers of litter decomposition may limit model accuracy. This situation could, however, be relatively easily improved with targeted experimental and field studies. Finally, we identify key gaps in knowledge and recommend them as priorities for future work. These include the patterns of photosynthate partitioning amongst belowground components, ecosystem level effects of individual plant traits, and the importance of trophic interactions and species invasions or extinctions for ecosystem processes. A final, overarching challenge is how to link these observations and drivers across spatio-temporal scales to predict regional or global changes in R over long time periods. A more unified approach to understanding R, which integrates information about plant traits and community dynamics, will be essential for better understanding, simulating and predicting feedbacks to R across terrestrial ecosystems and the earth-climate system.

The Effect of Future Ambient Air Pollution on Human Premature Mortality to 2100 Using Output from the ACCMIP Model Ensemble

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Silva, Raquel A.; West, J. Jason; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Shindell, Drew T.; Collins, William J.; Dalsoren, Stig; Faluvegi, Greg; Folberth, Gerd; Horowitz, Larry W.; Nagashima, Tatsuya;

Glyphosate Resistance of C3 and C4 Weeds under Rising Atmospheric CO2

PubMed Central

Fernando, Nimesha; Manalil, Sudheesh; Florentine, Singarayer K.; Chauhan, Bhagirath S.; Seneweera, Saman

2016-01-01

The present paper reviews current knowledge on how changes of plant metabolism under elevated CO2 concentrations (e[CO2]) can affect the development of the glyphosate resistance of C3 and C4 weeds. Among the chemical herbicides, glyphosate, which is a non-selective and post-emergence herbicide, is currently the most widely used herbicide in global agriculture. As a consequence, glyphosate resistant weeds, particularly in major field crops, are a widespread problem and are becoming a significant challenge to future global food production. Of particular interest here it is known that the biochemical processes involved in photosynthetic pathways of C3 and C4 plants are different, which may have relevance to their competitive development under changing environmental conditions. It has already been shown that plant anatomical, morphological, and physiological changes under e[CO2] can be different, based on (i) the plant’s functional group, (ii) the available soil nutrients, and (iii) the governing water status. In this respect, C3 species are likely to have a major developmental advantage under a CO2 rich atmosphere, by being able to capitalize on the overall stimulatory effect of e[CO2]. For example, many tropical weed grass species fix CO2 from the atmosphere via the C4 photosynthetic pathway, which is a complex anatomical and biochemical variant of the C3 pathway. Thus, based on our current knowledge of CO2 fixing, it would appear obvious that the development of a glyphosate-resistant mechanism would be easier under an e[CO2] in C3 weeds which have a simpler photosynthetic pathway, than for C4 weeds. However, notwithstanding this logical argument, a better understanding of the biochemical, genetic, and molecular measures by which plants develop glyphosate resistance and how e[CO2] affects these measures will be important before attempting to innovate sustainable technology to manage the glyphosate-resistant evolution of weeds under e[CO2]. Such information will be of essential in managing weed control by herbicide use, and to thus ensure an increase in global food production in the event of increased atmospheric [CO2] levels. PMID:27446140

Glyphosate Resistance of C3 and C4 Weeds under Rising Atmospheric CO2.

PubMed

Fernando, Nimesha; Manalil, Sudheesh; Florentine, Singarayer K; Chauhan, Bhagirath S; Seneweera, Saman

2016-01-01

The present paper reviews current knowledge on how changes of plant metabolism under elevated CO2 concentrations (e[CO2]) can affect the development of the glyphosate resistance of C3 and C4 weeds. Among the chemical herbicides, glyphosate, which is a non-selective and post-emergence herbicide, is currently the most widely used herbicide in global agriculture. As a consequence, glyphosate resistant weeds, particularly in major field crops, are a widespread problem and are becoming a significant challenge to future global food production. Of particular interest here it is known that the biochemical processes involved in photosynthetic pathways of C3 and C4 plants are different, which may have relevance to their competitive development under changing environmental conditions. It has already been shown that plant anatomical, morphological, and physiological changes under e[CO2] can be different, based on (i) the plant's functional group, (ii) the available soil nutrients, and (iii) the governing water status. In this respect, C3 species are likely to have a major developmental advantage under a CO2 rich atmosphere, by being able to capitalize on the overall stimulatory effect of e[CO2]. For example, many tropical weed grass species fix CO2 from the atmosphere via the C4 photosynthetic pathway, which is a complex anatomical and biochemical variant of the C3 pathway. Thus, based on our current knowledge of CO2 fixing, it would appear obvious that the development of a glyphosate-resistant mechanism would be easier under an e[CO2] in C3 weeds which have a simpler photosynthetic pathway, than for C4 weeds. However, notwithstanding this logical argument, a better understanding of the biochemical, genetic, and molecular measures by which plants develop glyphosate resistance and how e[CO2] affects these measures will be important before attempting to innovate sustainable technology to manage the glyphosate-resistant evolution of weeds under e[CO2]. Such information will be of essential in managing weed control by herbicide use, and to thus ensure an increase in global food production in the event of increased atmospheric [CO2] levels.

Large-scale modeled contemporary and future water temperature estimates for 10774 Midwestern U.S. Lakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Winslow, Luke A.; Hansen, Gretchen J. A.; Read, Jordan S.; Notaro, Michael

2017-01-01

Climate change has already influenced lake temperatures globally, but understanding future change is challenging. The response of lakes to changing climate drivers is complex due to the nature of lake-atmosphere coupling, ice cover, and stratification. To better understand the diversity of lake responses to climate change and give managers insight on individual lakes, we modelled daily water temperature profiles for 10,774 lakes in Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin for contemporary (1979–2015) and future (2020–2040 and 2080–2100) time periods with climate models based on the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5, the worst-case emission scenario. In addition to lake-specific daily simulated temperatures, we derived commonly used, ecologically relevant annual metrics of thermal conditions for each lake. We include all supporting lake-specific model parameters, meteorological drivers, and archived code for the model and derived metric calculations. This unique dataset offers landscape-level insight into the impact of climate change on lakes.

Large-scale modeled contemporary and future water temperature estimates for 10774 Midwestern U.S. Lakes

PubMed Central

Winslow, Luke A.; Hansen, Gretchen J.A.; Read, Jordan S; Notaro, Michael

2017-01-01

Climate change has already influenced lake temperatures globally, but understanding future change is challenging. The response of lakes to changing climate drivers is complex due to the nature of lake-atmosphere coupling, ice cover, and stratification. To better understand the diversity of lake responses to climate change and give managers insight on individual lakes, we modelled daily water temperature profiles for 10,774 lakes in Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin for contemporary (1979–2015) and future (2020–2040 and 2080–2100) time periods with climate models based on the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5, the worst-case emission scenario. In addition to lake-specific daily simulated temperatures, we derived commonly used, ecologically relevant annual metrics of thermal conditions for each lake. We include all supporting lake-specific model parameters, meteorological drivers, and archived code for the model and derived metric calculations. This unique dataset offers landscape-level insight into the impact of climate change on lakes. PMID:28440790

Large-scale modeled contemporary and future water temperature estimates for 10774 Midwestern U.S. Lakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winslow, Luke A.; Hansen, Gretchen J. A.; Read, Jordan S.; Notaro, Michael

2017-04-01

Climate change has already influenced lake temperatures globally, but understanding future change is challenging. The response of lakes to changing climate drivers is complex due to the nature of lake-atmosphere coupling, ice cover, and stratification. To better understand the diversity of lake responses to climate change and give managers insight on individual lakes, we modelled daily water temperature profiles for 10,774 lakes in Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin for contemporary (1979-2015) and future (2020-2040 and 2080-2100) time periods with climate models based on the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5, the worst-case emission scenario. In addition to lake-specific daily simulated temperatures, we derived commonly used, ecologically relevant annual metrics of thermal conditions for each lake. We include all supporting lake-specific model parameters, meteorological drivers, and archived code for the model and derived metric calculations. This unique dataset offers landscape-level insight into the impact of climate change on lakes.

Climate change, estuaries and anadromous fish habitat in the northeastern United States: models, downscaling and uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muhling, B.; Gaitan, C. F.; Tommasi, D.; Saba, V. S.; Stock, C. A.; Dixon, K. W.

2016-02-01

Estuaries of the northeastern United States provide essential habitat for many anadromous fishes, across a range of life stages. Climate change is likely to impact estuarine environments and habitats through multiple pathways. Increasing air temperatures will result in a warming water column, and potentially increased stratification. In addition, changes to precipitation patterns may alter freshwater inflow dynamics, leading to altered seasonal salinity regimes. However, the spatial resolution of global climate models is generally insufficient to resolve these processes at the scale of individual estuaries. Global models can be downscaled to a regional resolution using a variety of dynamical and statistical methods. In this study, we examined projections of estuarine conditions, and future habitat extent, for several anadromous fishes in the Chesapeake Bay using different statistical downscaling methods. Sources of error from physical and biological models were quantified, and key areas of uncertainty were highlighted. Results suggested that future projections of the distribution and recruitment of species most strongly linked to freshwater flow dynamics had the highest levels of uncertainty. The sensitivity of different life stages to environmental conditions, and the population-level responses of anadromous species to climate change, were identified as important areas for further research.

Understanding STAT3 signaling in cardiac ischemia.

PubMed

O'Sullivan, K E; Breen, E P; Gallagher, H C; Buggy, D J; Hurley, J P

2016-05-01

Cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of death worldwide. It remains one of the greatest challenges to global health and will continue to dominate mortality trends in the future. Acute myocardial infarction results in 7.4 million deaths globally per annum. Current management strategies are centered on restoration of coronary blood flow via percutaneous coronary intervention, coronary artery bypass grafting and administration of anti-platelet agents. Such myocardial reperfusion accounts for 40-50 % of the final infarct size in most cases. Signaling transducer and activator of transcription 3 (STAT3) has been shown to have cardioprotective effects via canonical and non-canonical activation and modulation of mitochondrial and transcriptional responses. A significant body of in vitro and in vivo evidence suggests that activation of the STAT3 signal transduction pathway results in a cardio protective response to ischemia and attempts have been made to modulate this with therapeutic effect. Not only is STAT3 important for cardiomyocyte function, but it also modulates the cardiac microenvironment and communicates with cardiac fibroblasts. To this end, we here review the current evidence supporting the manipulation of STAT3 for therapeutic benefit in cardiac ischemia and identify areas for future research.

Novel stable isotope laser spectrometry elucidates changing mechanisms of CH4 production and consumption across a climate change sequence in an arctic wetland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCalley, C. K.; Wehr, R.; Crill, P. M.; Chanton, J.; Hodgkins, S. B.; Nelson, D. D.; McManus, J. B.; Zahniser, M. S.; Rich, V.; Tyson, G.; Mondav, R.; Frolking, S.; Li, C.; Saleska, S. R.

2011-12-01

Methane flux from high latitude wetlands is both a critical component of the global CH4 budget, and highly sensitive to global climate change, with expected increases in emissions as permafrost thaws. Gaps in our understanding of the mechanisms driving changing CH4 production and consumption dynamics under permafrost thaw, however, limit our ability to predict the magnitude of this response under future climate conditions. To address these gaps, we quantified the isotopic composition of carbon gas fluxes (δ13C of CH4 and CO2) from a high latitude (68° N) wetland in Sweden (Stordalen Mire) to partition net CH4 emissions into its component parts, methanogenesis (including both acetoclastic, and CO2-reductive pathways) and methanotrophy (which consumes CH4 primarily via aerobic metabolism). We used newly developed quantum cascade laser technology, linked to automated chambers, to quantify isotopes at high frequency. Our measurements across a permafrost thaw gradient, going from permafrost-dominated, well-drained palsas to intermediate permafrost sites dominated by Sphagnum spp. to wet sites with no underlying permafrost, dominated by Eriophorum angustifolium, show both large increases in productivity and CH4 emissions as well as shifts in the CH4 production pathway. Across this permafrost thaw gradient the isotopic composition of CH4 becomes 13C enriched, due to increased acetoclastic CH4 production. While the palsa sites have no detectable CH4 emissions, fluxes in the Sphagnum site have an average isotopic composition of -79%, a value indicative of CH4 production dominated by CO2 reduction, in contrast the isotopic composition of CH4 produced in the Eriophorum sites ranged from -71 to -57%, showing increased CH4 production via the acetate pathway. We also observed an increase in acetoclastic methanogenesis as the growing season progressed. Together, these initial results suggest that thaw induced changes in hydrology and plant community composition increase peat lability, stimulating acetate fermentation and yielding increased methane emissions. We conclude that the biological controls on metabolic pathways of methanogenesis, though poorly represented in most ecosystem models, may nonetheless be important, in interaction with permafrost thaw dynamics, in determining future CH4 emissions under changing climate.

Northern Eurasia Future Initiative (NEFI): facing the challenges and pathways of global change in the twenty-first century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Groisman, Pavel; Shugart, Herman; Kicklighter, David; Henebry, Geoffrey; Tchebakova, Nadezhda; Maksyutov, Shamil; Monier, Erwan; Gutman, Garik; Gulev, Sergey; Qi, Jiaguo; Prishchepov, Alexander; Kukavskaya, Elena; Porfiriev, Boris; Shiklomanov, Alexander; Loboda, Tatiana; Shiklomanov, Nikolay; Nghiem, Son; Bergen, Kathleen; Albrechtová, Jana; Chen, Jiquan; Shahgedanova, Maria; Shvidenko, Anatoly; Speranskaya, Nina; Soja, Amber; de Beurs, Kirsten; Bulygina, Olga; McCarty, Jessica; Zhuang, Qianlai; Zolina, Olga

2017-12-01

During the past several decades, the Earth system has changed significantly, especially across Northern Eurasia. Changes in the socio-economic conditions of the larger countries in the region have also resulted in a variety of regional environmental changes that can have global consequences. The Northern Eurasia Future Initiative (NEFI) has been designed as an essential continuation of the Northern Eurasia Earth Science Partnership Initiative (NEESPI), which was launched in 2004. NEESPI sought to elucidate all aspects of ongoing environmental change, to inform societies and, thus, to better prepare societies for future developments. A key principle of NEFI is that these developments must now be secured through science-based strategies co-designed with regional decision-makers to lead their societies to prosperity in the face of environmental and institutional challenges. NEESPI scientific research, data, and models have created a solid knowledge base to support the NEFI program. This paper presents the NEFI research vision consensus based on that knowledge. It provides the reader with samples of recent accomplishments in regional studies and formulates new NEFI science questions. To address these questions, nine research foci are identified and their selections are briefly justified. These foci include warming of the Arctic; changing frequency, pattern, and intensity of extreme and inclement environmental conditions; retreat of the cryosphere; changes in terrestrial water cycles; changes in the biosphere; pressures on land use; changes in infrastructure; societal actions in response to environmental change; and quantification of Northern Eurasia's role in the global Earth system. Powerful feedbacks between the Earth and human systems in Northern Eurasia (e.g., mega-fires, droughts, depletion of the cryosphere essential for water supply, retreat of sea ice) result from past and current human activities (e.g., large-scale water withdrawals, land use, and governance change) and potentially restrict or provide new opportunities for future human activities. Therefore, we propose that integrated assessment models are needed as the final stage of global change assessment. The overarching goal of this NEFI modeling effort will enable evaluation of economic decisions in response to changing environmental conditions and justification of mitigation and adaptation efforts.

The Person Behind the Picture: Influence of Social and Cultural Capital on Geoscience Career Pathways

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rappolee, E.; Libarkin, J. C.; McCallum, C.; Kurz, S.

2017-12-01

The amalgamation of fields in the geosciences share one desire: a better understanding of the natural world and the relationship humans have with that world. As issues such as climate change and clean water become globally recognized the geoscience job market grows. To insure these issues are resolved in ways that are fully representative of the entire human population, attention has been turned to increasing diversity of scientists in the geosciences. This study is based in the theory of social and cultural capital, types of non-financial wealth obtained by individuals and groups through connections and experiences. In particular, we investigated how individuals accessed specific resources and opportunities which eventually led to their entering the geosciences. Surveys were distributed to volunteers at a multinational geoscience conference held in fall of 2016. These surveys asked participants to "draw a picture of the people and experiences that have influenced your career up to this point." Nearly 150 completed drawings were coded through a thematic content analysis, wherein salient characteristics of drawings were documented and later grouped into common themes. We found that specific people (family, professors, peers) provided access to resources (education, museums, parks) as well as experiences (camping, traveling, research) that were instrumental in career building. Correlation analysis revealed two representative models of the drawings. These models aligned with the constructs of social and cultural capital. Cultural capital was more prevalent in majority white than nonwhite participants, suggesting different pathways into geoscience careers. We hope this research will inspire future work as well as highlight ways in which social and cultural capital can become accessible to future generations to produce a system with equal opportunities and increase diversity in the geosciences, resulting in better decision-making on global issues.

Securing the Future of Water, Energy and Food: Can solutions for the currently stressed countries provide the direction for ensuring global water sustainability and food security in the 21st century?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Devineni, N.; Lall, U.

2014-12-01

Where will the food for the 9 billion people we expect on Earth by 2050 come from? The answer to this question depends on where the water and the energy for agriculture will come from. This assumes of course, that our primary food source will continue to be based on production on land, and that irrigation and the use of fertilizers to improve production are needed to address climate shocks and deteriorating soil health. Given this, establishing an economically, environmentally and physically feasible pathway to achieve water, energy and food security in the face of a changing climate is crucial to planetary well-being. A central hypothesis of the proposed paper is that innovation towards agricultural sustainability in countries such as India and China, that have large populations relative to their water, energy and arable land endowment, and yet have opportunity for improvement in productivity metrics such as crop yield per unit water or energy use, can show us the way to achieve global water-food-energy sustainability. These countries experience a monsoonal climate, which has a high frequency of climate extremes (more floods and droughts, and a short rainy season) relative to the developed countries in temperate climates. Global climate change projections indicate that the frequency and severity of extremes may pose a challenge in the future. Thus, strategies that are resilient to such extremes in monsoonal climates may be of global value in a warmer, more variable world. Much of the future population growth is expected to occur in Africa, S. America and S. Asia. Targeting these regions for higher productivity and resilience is consequently important from a national security perspective as well. Through this paper, we propose to (a) layout in detail, the challenges faced by the water, energy and food sectors in emerging countries, with specific focus on India and China and (b) provide the scientific background for an integrated systems analytic approach to formulate solutions at varying scales that can be employed globally. Such coordinated analyses is important for an examination of the future water sustainability in the face of changing climate, agricultural trends, environmental impacts and new energy choices.

Thymus transcriptome reveals novel pathways in response to avian pathogenic Escherichia coli infection

PubMed Central

Sun, H.; Liu, P.; Nolan, L. K.; Lamont, S. J.

2016-01-01

Avian pathogenic Escherichia coli (APEC) can cause significant morbidity in chickens. The thymus provides the essential environment for T cell development; however, the thymus transcriptome has not been examined for gene expression in response to APEC infection. An improved understanding of the host genomic response to APEC infection could inform future breeding programs for disease resistance and APEC control. We therefore analyzed the transcriptome of the thymus of birds challenged with APEC, contrasting susceptible and resistant phenotypes. Thousands of genes were differentially expressed in birds of the 5-day post infection (dpi) challenged-susceptible group vs. 5 dpi non-challenged, in 5 dpi challenged-susceptible vs. 5 dpi challenged-resistant birds, as well as in 5 dpi vs. one dpi challenged-susceptible birds. The Toll-like receptor signaling pathway was the major innate immune response for birds to respond to APEC infection. Moreover, lysosome and cell adhesion molecules pathways were common mechanisms for chicken response to APEC infection. The T-cell receptor signaling pathway, cell cycle, and p53 signaling pathways were significantly activated in resistant birds to resist APEC infection. These results provide a comprehensive assessment of global gene networks and biological functionalities of differentially expressed genes in the thymus under APEC infection. These findings provide novel insights into key molecular genetic mechanisms that differentiate host resistance from susceptibility in this primary lymphoid tissue, the thymus. PMID:27466434

De Novo Assembly and Characterization of the Transcriptome of the Chinese Medicinal Herb, Gentiana rigescens

PubMed Central

Zhang, Xiaodong; Allan, Andrew C.; Li, Caixia; Wang, Yuanzhong; Yao, Qiuyang

2015-01-01

Gentiana rigescens is an important medicinal herb in China. The main validated medicinal component gentiopicroside is synthesized in shoots, but is mainly found in the plant’s roots. The gentiopicroside biosynthetic pathway and its regulatory control remain to be elucidated. Genome resources of gentian are limited. Next-generation sequencing (NGS) technologies can aid in supplying global gene expression profiles. In this study we present sequence and transcript abundance data for the root and leaf transcriptome of G. rigescens, obtained using the Illumina Hiseq2000. Over fifty million clean reads were obtained from leaf and root libraries. This yields 76,717 unigenes with an average length of 753 bp. Among these, 33,855 unigenes were identified as putative homologs of annotated sequences in public protein and nucleotide databases. Digital abundance analysis identified 3306 unigenes differentially enriched between leaf and root. Unigenes found in both tissues were categorized according to their putative functional categories. Of the differentially expressed genes, over 130 were annotated as related to terpenoid biosynthesis. This work is the first study of global transcriptome analyses in gentian. These sequences and putative functional data comprise a resource for future investigation of terpenoid biosynthesis in Gentianaceae species and annotation of the gentiopicroside biosynthetic pathway and its regulatory mechanisms. PMID:26006235

Identification of Transcriptional Modules and Key Genes in Chickens Infected with Salmonella enterica Serovar Pullorum Using Integrated Coexpression Analyses.

PubMed

Liu, Bao-Hong; Cai, Jian-Ping

2017-01-01

Salmonella enterica Pullorum is one of the leading causes of mortality in poultry. Understanding the molecular response in chickens in response to the infection by S. enterica is important in revealing the mechanisms of pathogenesis and disease progress. There have been studies on identifying genes associated with Salmonella infection by differential expression analysis, but the relationships among regulated genes have not been investigated. In this study, we employed weighted gene coexpression network analysis (WGCNA) and differential coexpression analysis (DCEA) to identify coexpression modules by exploring microarray data derived from chicken splenic tissues in response to the S. enterica infection. A total of 19 modules from 13,538 genes were associated with the Jak-STAT signaling pathway, the extracellular matrix, cytoskeleton organization, the regulation of the actin cytoskeleton, G-protein coupled receptor activity, Toll-like receptor signaling pathways, and immune system processes; among them, 14 differentially coexpressed modules (DCMs) and 2,856 differentially coexpressed genes (DCGs) were identified. The global expression of module genes between infected and uninfected chickens showed slight differences but considerable changes for global coexpression. Furthermore, DCGs were consistently linked to the hubs of the modules. These results will help prioritize candidate genes for future studies of Salmonella infection.

Identification of Transcriptional Modules and Key Genes in Chickens Infected with Salmonella enterica Serovar Pullorum Using Integrated Coexpression Analyses

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Salmonella enterica Pullorum is one of the leading causes of mortality in poultry. Understanding the molecular response in chickens in response to the infection by S. enterica is important in revealing the mechanisms of pathogenesis and disease progress. There have been studies on identifying genes associated with Salmonella infection by differential expression analysis, but the relationships among regulated genes have not been investigated. In this study, we employed weighted gene coexpression network analysis (WGCNA) and differential coexpression analysis (DCEA) to identify coexpression modules by exploring microarray data derived from chicken splenic tissues in response to the S. enterica infection. A total of 19 modules from 13,538 genes were associated with the Jak-STAT signaling pathway, the extracellular matrix, cytoskeleton organization, the regulation of the actin cytoskeleton, G-protein coupled receptor activity, Toll-like receptor signaling pathways, and immune system processes; among them, 14 differentially coexpressed modules (DCMs) and 2,856 differentially coexpressed genes (DCGs) were identified. The global expression of module genes between infected and uninfected chickens showed slight differences but considerable changes for global coexpression. Furthermore, DCGs were consistently linked to the hubs of the modules. These results will help prioritize candidate genes for future studies of Salmonella infection. PMID:28529955

Tropical Warm Semi-Arid Regions Expanding Over Temperate Latitudes In The Projected 21st Century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rajaud, A.; de Noblet, N. I.

2015-12-01

Two billion people today live in drylands, where extreme climatic conditions prevail, and natural resources are limited. Drylands are expected to expand under several scenarios of climatic change. However, relevant adaptation strategies need to account for the aridity level: it conditions the equilibrium tree-cover density, ranging from deserts (hyper-arid) to dense savannas (sub-humid). Here we focus on the evolution of climatically defined warm semi-arid areas, where low-tree density covers can be maintained. We study the global repartition of these regions in the future and the bioclimatic shifts involved. We adopted a bioclimatological approach based on the Köppen climate classification. The warm semi-arid class is characterized by mean annual temperatures over 18°C and a rainfall-limitation criterion. A multi-model ensemble of CMIP5 projections for three representative concentration pathways was selected to analyze future conditions. The classification was first applied to the start, middle and end of the 20th and 21st centuries, in order to localize past and future warm semi-arid regions. Then, time-series for the classification were built to characterize trends and variability in the evolution of those regions. According to the CRU datasets, global expansion of the warm semi-arid area has already started (~+13%), following the global warming trend since the 1900s. This will continue according to all projections, most significantly so outside the tropical belt. Under the "business as usual" scenario, the global warm semi-arid area will increase by 30% and expand 12° poleward in the Northern Hemisphere, according to the multi-model mean. Drying drives the conversion from equatorial sub-humid conditions. Beyond 30° of latitude, cold semi-arid conditions become warm semi-arid through warming, and temperate conditions through combined warming and drying processes. Those various transitions may have drastic but also very distinct ecological and sociological impacts.

Can we Observe and Assess Whether the Global Hydrological Cycle is "Intensifying"?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wood, E. F.; Sheffield, J.

2012-12-01

There is controversy over whether the hydrological cycle is "intensifying" (or "accelerating"), and if so how and where? Resolving this critical question is a central goal of both national (e.g. NASA's Energy and Water cycle Study: NEWS) and international (WCRP Global Energy and Water cycle Experiment: GEWEX) programs. Its resolution has significant implications for understanding changes in hydroclimatic states and variability, and in future water security at regional to global scales. Over the last decade a number of papers have addressed trends and change in specific water cycle variables with results that can best be described as inconclusive, regardless of the conclusions of specific papers. In this presentation a number of recent studies will be reviewed for their consistency in assessing whether collectively one can make conclusions regarding how the hydrologic cycle is changing. The presentation will also demonstrate a pathway for analyzing where to observe for the detection of change based on a NASA-supported, global, 1983-2009, terrestrial water cycle Earth System Data Record project being led by the author. Initial results will be presented and a discussion presented on the extent that the proposed strategy can be used to detect change in the terrestrial hydrological cycle.

Modelling the effects of global climate change on Chikungunya transmission in the 21st century.

PubMed

Tjaden, Nils B; Suk, Jonathan E; Fischer, Dominik; Thomas, Stephanie M; Beierkuhnlein, Carl; Semenza, Jan C

2017-06-19

The arrival and rapid spread of the mosquito-borne viral disease Chikungunya across the Americas is one of the most significant public health developments of recent years, preceding and mirroring the subsequent spread of Zika. Globalization in trade and travel can lead to the importation of these viruses, but climatic conditions strongly affect the efficiency of transmission in local settings. In order to direct preparedness for future outbreaks, it is necessary to anticipate global regions that could become suitable for Chikungunya transmission. Here, we present global correlative niche models for autochthonous Chikungunya transmission. These models were used as the basis for projections under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 climate change scenarios. In a further step, hazard maps, which account for population densities, were produced. The baseline models successfully delineate current areas of active Chikungunya transmission. Projections under the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios suggest the likelihood of expansion of transmission-suitable areas in many parts of the world, including China, sub-Saharan Africa, South America, the United States and continental Europe. The models presented here can be used to inform public health preparedness planning in a highly interconnected world.

Interdisciplinary knowledge exchange across scales in a globally changing marine environment.

PubMed

McDonald, Karlie S; Hobday, Alistair J; Fulton, Elizabeth A; Thompson, Peter A

2018-07-01

The effects of anthropogenic global environmental change on biotic and abiotic processes have been reported in aquatic systems across the world. Complex synergies between concurrent environmental stressors and the resilience of the system to regime shifts, which vary in space and time, determine the capacity for marine systems to maintain structure and function with global environmental change. Consequently, an interdisciplinary approach that facilitates the development of new methods for the exchange of knowledge between scientists across multiple scales is required to effectively understand, quantify and predict climate impacts on marine ecosystem services. We use a literature review to assess the limitations and assumptions of current pathways to exchange interdisciplinary knowledge and the transferability of research findings across spatial and temporal scales and levels of biological organization to advance scientific understanding of global environmental change in marine systems. We found that species-specific regional scale climate change research is most commonly published, and "supporting" is the ecosystem service most commonly referred to in publications. In addition, our paper outlines a trajectory for the future development of integrated climate change science for sustaining marine ecosystem services such as investment in interdisciplinary education and connectivity between disciplines. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Constraints on global temperature target overshoot.

PubMed

Ricke, K L; Millar, R J; MacMartin, D G

2017-11-07

In the aftermath of the Paris Agreement, the climate science and policy communities are beginning to assess the feasibility and potential benefits of limiting global warming to 1.5 °C or 2 °C above preindustrial. Understanding the dependence of the magnitude and duration of possible temporary exceedance (i.e., "overshoot") of temperature targets on sustainable energy decarbonization futures and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) removal rates will be an important contribution to this policy discussion. Drawing upon results from the mitigation literature and the IPCC Working Group 3 (WG3) scenario database, we examine the global mean temperature implications of differing, independent pathways for the decarbonization of global energy supply and the implementation of negative emissions technologies. We find that within the scope of scenarios broadly-consistent with the WG3 database, the magnitude of temperature overshoot is more sensitive to the rate of decarbonization. However, limiting the duration of overshoot to less than two centuries requires ambitious deployment of both decarbonization and negative emissions technology. The dependencies of temperature target overshoot's properties upon currently untested negative emissions technologies suggests that it will be important to consider how climate impacts depend on both the magnitude and duration of overshoot, not just long term residual warming.

Anticipated water quality changes in response to climate change and potential consequences for inland fishes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chen, Yushun; Todd, Andrew S.; Murphy, Margaret H.; Lomnicky, Gregg

2016-01-01

Healthy freshwater ecosystems are a critical component of the world's economy, with a critical role in maintaining public health, inland biological diversity, and overall quality of life. Globally, our climate is changing, with air temperature and precipitation regimes deviating significantly from historical patterns. Healthy freshwater ecosystems are a critical component of the world's economy, with a critical role in maintaining public health, inland biological diversity, and overall quality of life. Globally, our climate is changing, with air temperature and precipitation regimes deviating significantly from historical patterns. Changes anticipated with climate change in the future are likely to have a profound effect on inland aquatic ecosystems through diverse pathways, including changes in water quality. In this brief article, we present an initial discussion of several of the water quality responses that can be anticipated to occur within inland water bodies with climate change and how those changes are likely to impact fishes.

Climate change impacts on selected global rangeland ecosystem services.

PubMed

Boone, Randall B; Conant, Richard T; Sircely, Jason; Thornton, Philip K; Herrero, Mario

2018-03-01

Rangelands are Earth's dominant land cover and are important providers of ecosystem services. Reliance on rangelands is projected to grow, thus understanding the sensitivity of rangelands to future climates is essential. We used a new ecosystem model of moderate complexity that allows, for the first time, to quantify global changes expected in rangelands under future climates. The mean global annual net primary production (NPP) may decline by 10 g C m -2  year -1 in 2050 under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5, but herbaceous NPP is projected to increase slightly (i.e., average of 3 g C m -2  year -1 ). Responses vary substantially from place-to-place, with large increases in annual productivity projected in northern regions (e.g., a 21% increase in productivity in the US and Canada) and large declines in western Africa (-46% in sub-Saharan western Africa) and Australia (-17%). Soil organic carbon is projected to increase in Australia (9%), the Middle East (14%), and central Asia (16%) and decline in many African savannas (e.g., -18% in sub-Saharan western Africa). Livestock are projected to decline 7.5 to 9.6%, an economic loss of from $9.7 to $12.6 billion. Our results suggest that forage production in Africa is sensitive to changes in climate, which will have substantial impacts on the livelihoods of the more than 180 million people who raise livestock on those rangelands. Our approach and the simulation tool presented here offer considerable potential for forecasting future conditions, highlight regions of concern, and support analyses where costs and benefits of adaptations and policies may be quantified. Otherwise, the technical options and policy and enabling environment that are needed to facilitate widespread adaptation may be very difficult to elucidate. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Implications of alternative assumptions regarding future air pollution control in RCP-like scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chuwah, Clifford; van Noije, Twan; van Vuuren, Detlef; Hazeleger, Wilco; Strunk, Achim; Deetman, Sebastiaan; Mendoza Beltran, Angelica; van Vliet, Jasper

2013-04-01

Estimation of future emissions of short-lived trace gases and aerosols from human activities is a main source of uncertainty in projections of future air quality and climate forcing. The Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), however, all assume that worldwide ambitious air pollution control policies will be implemented in the coming decades. In this study, we therefore explore the consequences of four alternative emission scenarios generated using the IMAGE integrated assessment model following the methods used to generate the RCPs. These scenarios combine low and high air pollution variants of the scenarios with radiative forcing targets in 2100 of 2.6 W/m2 and 6.0 W/m2 (the high air pollution variants assume no improvement in emission factors, representing a hypothetical upper end of emission levels). Analysis using the global atmospheric chemistry and transport model TM5 shows that climate mitigation and air pollution control policy variants studied here have similar large-scale effects on the concentrations of ozone and black carbon; the impact of climate policy, however, has a stronger impact on sulphate concentrations. Air pollution control measures could significantly reduce the warming by tropospheric ozone and black carbon and the cooling by sulphate already in 2020, and on the longer term contribute to enhanced warming by methane. These effects tend to cancel each other at the global scale. According to our estimates the effect of the worldwide implementation of air pollution control measures on the total global mean direct radiative forcing in 2050 is +0.09 W/m2 in the 6.0 W/m2 scenario and -0.16 W/m2 in the 2.6 W/m2 scenario.

Biotic and Human Vulnerability to Projected Changes in Ocean Biogeochemistry over the 21st Century

PubMed Central

Mora, Camilo; Wei, Chih-Lin; Rollo, Audrey; Amaro, Teresa; Baco, Amy R.; Billett, David; Bopp, Laurent; Chen, Qi; Collier, Mark; Danovaro, Roberto; Gooday, Andrew J.; Grupe, Benjamin M.; Halloran, Paul R.; Ingels, Jeroen; Jones, Daniel O. B.; Levin, Lisa A.; Nakano, Hideyuki; Norling, Karl; Ramirez-Llodra, Eva; Rex, Michael; Ruhl, Henry A.; Smith, Craig R.; Sweetman, Andrew K.; Thurber, Andrew R.; Tjiputra, Jerry F.; Usseglio, Paolo; Watling, Les; Wu, Tongwen; Yasuhara, Moriaki

2013-01-01

Ongoing greenhouse gas emissions can modify climate processes and induce shifts in ocean temperature, pH, oxygen concentration, and productivity, which in turn could alter biological and social systems. Here, we provide a synoptic global assessment of the simultaneous changes in future ocean biogeochemical variables over marine biota and their broader implications for people. We analyzed modern Earth System Models forced by greenhouse gas concentration pathways until 2100 and showed that the entire world's ocean surface will be simultaneously impacted by varying intensities of ocean warming, acidification, oxygen depletion, or shortfalls in productivity. In contrast, only a small fraction of the world's ocean surface, mostly in polar regions, will experience increased oxygenation and productivity, while almost nowhere will there be ocean cooling or pH elevation. We compiled the global distribution of 32 marine habitats and biodiversity hotspots and found that they would all experience simultaneous exposure to changes in multiple biogeochemical variables. This superposition highlights the high risk for synergistic ecosystem responses, the suite of physiological adaptations needed to cope with future climate change, and the potential for reorganization of global biodiversity patterns. If co-occurring biogeochemical changes influence the delivery of ocean goods and services, then they could also have a considerable effect on human welfare. Approximately 470 to 870 million of the poorest people in the world rely heavily on the ocean for food, jobs, and revenues and live in countries that will be most affected by simultaneous changes in ocean biogeochemistry. These results highlight the high risk of degradation of marine ecosystems and associated human hardship expected in a future following current trends in anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. PMID:24143135

Biotic and human vulnerability to projected changes in ocean biogeochemistry over the 21st century.

PubMed

Mora, Camilo; Wei, Chih-Lin; Rollo, Audrey; Amaro, Teresa; Baco, Amy R; Billett, David; Bopp, Laurent; Chen, Qi; Collier, Mark; Danovaro, Roberto; Gooday, Andrew J; Grupe, Benjamin M; Halloran, Paul R; Ingels, Jeroen; Jones, Daniel O B; Levin, Lisa A; Nakano, Hideyuki; Norling, Karl; Ramirez-Llodra, Eva; Rex, Michael; Ruhl, Henry A; Smith, Craig R; Sweetman, Andrew K; Thurber, Andrew R; Tjiputra, Jerry F; Usseglio, Paolo; Watling, Les; Wu, Tongwen; Yasuhara, Moriaki

2013-10-01

Ongoing greenhouse gas emissions can modify climate processes and induce shifts in ocean temperature, pH, oxygen concentration, and productivity, which in turn could alter biological and social systems. Here, we provide a synoptic global assessment of the simultaneous changes in future ocean biogeochemical variables over marine biota and their broader implications for people. We analyzed modern Earth System Models forced by greenhouse gas concentration pathways until 2100 and showed that the entire world's ocean surface will be simultaneously impacted by varying intensities of ocean warming, acidification, oxygen depletion, or shortfalls in productivity. In contrast, only a small fraction of the world's ocean surface, mostly in polar regions, will experience increased oxygenation and productivity, while almost nowhere will there be ocean cooling or pH elevation. We compiled the global distribution of 32 marine habitats and biodiversity hotspots and found that they would all experience simultaneous exposure to changes in multiple biogeochemical variables. This superposition highlights the high risk for synergistic ecosystem responses, the suite of physiological adaptations needed to cope with future climate change, and the potential for reorganization of global biodiversity patterns. If co-occurring biogeochemical changes influence the delivery of ocean goods and services, then they could also have a considerable effect on human welfare. Approximately 470 to 870 million of the poorest people in the world rely heavily on the ocean for food, jobs, and revenues and live in countries that will be most affected by simultaneous changes in ocean biogeochemistry. These results highlight the high risk of degradation of marine ecosystems and associated human hardship expected in a future following current trends in anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions.

Future changes in atmospheric condition for the baiu under RCP scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Okada, Y.; Takemi, T.; Ishikawa, H.

2015-12-01

This study focuses on atmospheric circulation fields during the baiu in Japan with global warming projection experimental data conducted using a 20-km mesh global atmospheric model (MRI-AGCM3.2) under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios. This model also used 4 different sea surface temperature (SST) initial conditions. Support of this dataset is provided by the Meteorological Research Institute (MRI). The baiu front indicated by the north-south gradient of moist static energy moves northward in present-day climate, whereas this northward shift in future climate simulations is very slow during May and June. In future late baiu season, the baiu front stays in the northern part of Japan even in August. As a result, the rich water vapor is transported around western Japan and the daily precipitation amount will increase in August. This northward shift of baiu front is associated with the westward expansion of the enhanced the North Pacific subtropical high (NPSH) into Japan region. However, the convective activity around northwest Pacific Ocean is inactive and is unlikely to occur convective jump (CJ). These models show that the weak trough exists in upper troposphere around Japan. Therefore, the cold advection stays in the northern part of Japan during June. In July, the front due to the strengthening of the NPSH moves northward, and then it stays until August. This feature is often found between the clustered SSTs, Cluster 2 and 3. The mean field of future August also show the inflow of rich water vapor content to Japan islands. In this model, the extreme rainfall suggested tends to almost increase over the Japan islands during future summer. This work was conducted under the Program for Risk Information on Climate Change supported by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science, and Technology-Japan (MEXT).

Defining pyromes and global syndromes of fire regimes.

PubMed

Archibald, Sally; Lehmann, Caroline E R; Gómez-Dans, Jose L; Bradstock, Ross A

2013-04-16

Fire is a ubiquitous component of the Earth system that is poorly understood. To date, a global-scale understanding of fire is largely limited to the annual extent of burning as detected by satellites. This is problematic because fire is multidimensional, and focus on a single metric belies its complexity and importance within the Earth system. To address this, we identified five key characteristics of fire regimes--size, frequency, intensity, season, and extent--and combined new and existing global datasets to represent each. We assessed how these global fire regime characteristics are related to patterns of climate, vegetation (biomes), and human activity. Cross-correlations demonstrate that only certain combinations of fire characteristics are possible, reflecting fundamental constraints in the types of fire regimes that can exist. A Bayesian clustering algorithm identified five global syndromes of fire regimes, or pyromes. Four pyromes represent distinctions between crown, litter, and grass-fueled fires, and the relationship of these to biomes and climate are not deterministic. Pyromes were partially discriminated on the basis of available moisture and rainfall seasonality. Human impacts also affected pyromes and are globally apparent as the driver of a fifth and unique pyrome that represents human-engineered modifications to fire characteristics. Differing biomes and climates may be represented within the same pyrome, implying that pathways of change in future fire regimes in response to changes in climate and human activity may be difficult to predict.

Defining pyromes and global syndromes of fire regimes

PubMed Central

Archibald, Sally; Lehmann, Caroline E. R.; Gómez-Dans, Jose L.; Bradstock, Ross A.

2013-01-01

Fire is a ubiquitous component of the Earth system that is poorly understood. To date, a global-scale understanding of fire is largely limited to the annual extent of burning as detected by satellites. This is problematic because fire is multidimensional, and focus on a single metric belies its complexity and importance within the Earth system. To address this, we identified five key characteristics of fire regimes—size, frequency, intensity, season, and extent—and combined new and existing global datasets to represent each. We assessed how these global fire regime characteristics are related to patterns of climate, vegetation (biomes), and human activity. Cross-correlations demonstrate that only certain combinations of fire characteristics are possible, reflecting fundamental constraints in the types of fire regimes that can exist. A Bayesian clustering algorithm identified five global syndromes of fire regimes, or pyromes. Four pyromes represent distinctions between crown, litter, and grass-fueled fires, and the relationship of these to biomes and climate are not deterministic. Pyromes were partially discriminated on the basis of available moisture and rainfall seasonality. Human impacts also affected pyromes and are globally apparent as the driver of a fifth and unique pyrome that represents human-engineered modifications to fire characteristics. Differing biomes and climates may be represented within the same pyrome, implying that pathways of change in future fire regimes in response to changes in climate and human activity may be difficult to predict. PMID:23559374

Coordinating AgMIP data and models across global and regional scales for 1.5°C and 2.0°C assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Ruane, Alex C.; Antle, John; Elliott, Joshua; Ashfaq, Muhammad; Chatta, Ashfaq Ahmad; Ewert, Frank; Folberth, Christian; Hathie, Ibrahima; Havlik, Petr; Hoogenboom, Gerrit; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; MacCarthy, Dilys S.; Mason-D'Croz, Daniel; Contreras, Erik Mencos; Müller, Christoph; Perez-Dominguez, Ignacio; Phillips, Meridel; Porter, Cheryl; Raymundo, Rubi M.; Sands, Ronald D.; Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Valdivia, Roberto O.; Valin, Hugo; Wiebe, Keith

2018-05-01

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) has developed novel methods for Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) of agriculture and food security in a changing world. The present study aims to perform a proof of concept of the CGRA to demonstrate advantages and challenges of the proposed framework. This effort responds to the request by the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) for the implications of limiting global temperature increases to 1.5°C and 2.0°C above pre-industrial conditions. The protocols for the 1.5°C/2.0°C assessment establish explicit and testable linkages across disciplines and scales, connecting outputs and inputs from the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs), Representative Agricultural Pathways (RAPs), Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts (HAPPI) and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble scenarios, global gridded crop models, global agricultural economics models, site-based crop models and within-country regional economics models. The CGRA consistently links disciplines, models and scales in order to track the complex chain of climate impacts and identify key vulnerabilities, feedbacks and uncertainties in managing future risk. CGRA proof-of-concept results show that, at the global scale, there are mixed areas of positive and negative simulated wheat and maize yield changes, with declines in some breadbasket regions, at both 1.5°C and 2.0°C. Declines are especially evident in simulations that do not take into account direct CO2 effects on crops. These projected global yield changes mostly resulted in increases in prices and areas of wheat and maize in two global economics models. Regional simulations for 1.5°C and 2.0°C using site-based crop models had mixed results depending on the region and the crop. In conjunction with price changes from the global economics models, productivity declines in the Punjab, Pakistan, resulted in an increase in vulnerable households and the poverty rate. This article is part of the theme issue `The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'.

Coordinating AgMIP data and models across global and regional scales for 1.5°C and 2.0°C assessments.

PubMed

Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Ruane, Alex C; Antle, John; Elliott, Joshua; Ashfaq, Muhammad; Chatta, Ashfaq Ahmad; Ewert, Frank; Folberth, Christian; Hathie, Ibrahima; Havlik, Petr; Hoogenboom, Gerrit; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; MacCarthy, Dilys S; Mason-D'Croz, Daniel; Contreras, Erik Mencos; Müller, Christoph; Perez-Dominguez, Ignacio; Phillips, Meridel; Porter, Cheryl; Raymundo, Rubi M; Sands, Ronald D; Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Valdivia, Roberto O; Valin, Hugo; Wiebe, Keith

2018-05-13

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) has developed novel methods for Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) of agriculture and food security in a changing world. The present study aims to perform a proof of concept of the CGRA to demonstrate advantages and challenges of the proposed framework. This effort responds to the request by the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) for the implications of limiting global temperature increases to 1.5°C and 2.0°C above pre-industrial conditions. The protocols for the 1.5°C/2.0°C assessment establish explicit and testable linkages across disciplines and scales, connecting outputs and inputs from the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs), Representative Agricultural Pathways (RAPs), Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts (HAPPI) and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble scenarios, global gridded crop models, global agricultural economics models, site-based crop models and within-country regional economics models. The CGRA consistently links disciplines, models and scales in order to track the complex chain of climate impacts and identify key vulnerabilities, feedbacks and uncertainties in managing future risk. CGRA proof-of-concept results show that, at the global scale, there are mixed areas of positive and negative simulated wheat and maize yield changes, with declines in some breadbasket regions, at both 1.5°C and 2.0°C. Declines are especially evident in simulations that do not take into account direct CO 2 effects on crops. These projected global yield changes mostly resulted in increases in prices and areas of wheat and maize in two global economics models. Regional simulations for 1.5°C and 2.0°C using site-based crop models had mixed results depending on the region and the crop. In conjunction with price changes from the global economics models, productivity declines in the Punjab, Pakistan, resulted in an increase in vulnerable households and the poverty rate.This article is part of the theme issue 'The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'. © 2018 The Authors.

The Potential Radiative Forcing of Global Land Use and Land Cover Change Activities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ward, D. S.; Mahowald, N. M.; Kloster, S.

2014-12-01

Given the expected increase in pressure on land resources over the next century, there is a need to understand the total impacts of activities associated with land use and land cover change (LULCC). Here we quantify these impacts using the radiative forcing metric, including forcings from changes in long-lived greenhouse gases, tropospheric ozone, aerosol effects, and land surface albedo. We estimate radiative forcings from the different agents for historical LULCC and for six future projections using simulations from the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Land Model and Community Atmosphere Models and additional offline analyses. When all forcing agents are considered together we show that 45% (+30%, -20%) of the present-day (2010) anthropogenic radiative forcing can be attributed to LULCC. Changes in the emission of non-CO2 greenhouse gases and aerosols from LULCC enhance the total LULCC radiative forcing by a factor of 2 to 3 with respect to the forcing from CO2 alone. In contrast, the non-CO2 forcings from fossil fuel burning are roughly neutral, due largely to the negative (cooling) impact of aerosols from these sources. We partition the global LULCC radiative forcing into three major sources: direct modification of land cover (e.g. deforestation), agricultural activities, and fire regime changes. Contributions from deforestation and agriculture are roughly equal in the present day, while changes to wildfire activity impose a small negative forcing globally. In 2100, deforestation activities comprise the majority of the LULCC radiative forcing for all projections except one (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5). This suggests that realistic scenarios of future forest area change are essential for projecting the contribution of LULCC to climate change. However, the commonly used RCP land cover change projections all include decreases in global deforestation rates over the next 85 years. To place an upper bound on the potential radiative forcing from LULCC we create a 'worst-case scenario" in which all arable land is converted to agriculture by the year 2100. This scenario leads to a total radiative forcing of 4.3 Wm-2 (+/- 1 Wm-2) suggesting that well thought-out land policy is needed to minimize future increases in global anthropogenic radiative forcing.

Contributions of different bias-correction methods and reference meteorological forcing data sets to uncertainty in projected temperature and precipitation extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iizumi, Toshichika; Takikawa, Hiroki; Hirabayashi, Yukiko; Hanasaki, Naota; Nishimori, Motoki

2017-08-01

The use of different bias-correction methods and global retrospective meteorological forcing data sets as the reference climatology in the bias correction of general circulation model (GCM) daily data is a known source of uncertainty in projected climate extremes and their impacts. Despite their importance, limited attention has been given to these uncertainty sources. We compare 27 projected temperature and precipitation indices over 22 regions of the world (including the global land area) in the near (2021-2060) and distant future (2061-2100), calculated using four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), five GCMs, two bias-correction methods, and three reference forcing data sets. To widen the variety of forcing data sets, we developed a new forcing data set, S14FD, and incorporated it into this study. The results show that S14FD is more accurate than other forcing data sets in representing the observed temperature and precipitation extremes in recent decades (1961-2000 and 1979-2008). The use of different bias-correction methods and forcing data sets contributes more to the total uncertainty in the projected precipitation index values in both the near and distant future than the use of different GCMs and RCPs. However, GCM appears to be the most dominant uncertainty source for projected temperature index values in the near future, and RCP is the most dominant source in the distant future. Our findings encourage climate risk assessments, especially those related to precipitation extremes, to employ multiple bias-correction methods and forcing data sets in addition to using different GCMs and RCPs.

Soil carbon management in large-scale Earth system modelling: implications for crop yields and nitrogen leaching

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olin, S.; Lindeskog, M.; Pugh, T. A. M.; Schurgers, G.; Wårlind, D.; Mishurov, M.; Zaehle, S.; Stocker, B. D.; Smith, B.; Arneth, A.

2015-11-01

Croplands are vital ecosystems for human well-being and provide important ecosystem services such as crop yields, retention of nitrogen and carbon storage. On large (regional to global)-scale levels, assessment of how these different services will vary in space and time, especially in response to cropland management, are scarce. We explore cropland management alternatives and the effect these can have on future C and N pools and fluxes using the land-use-enabled dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS (Lund-Potsdam-Jena General Ecosystem Simulator). Simulated crop production, cropland carbon storage, carbon sequestration and nitrogen leaching from croplands are evaluated and discussed. Compared to the version of LPJ-GUESS that does not include land-use dynamics, estimates of soil carbon stocks and nitrogen leaching from terrestrial to aquatic ecosystems were improved. Our model experiments allow us to investigate trade-offs between these ecosystem services that can be provided from agricultural fields. These trade-offs are evaluated for current land use and climate and further explored for future conditions within the two future climate change scenarios, RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) 2.6 and 8.5. Our results show that the potential for carbon sequestration due to typical cropland management practices such as no-till management and cover crops proposed in previous studies is not realised, globally or over larger climatic regions. Our results highlight important considerations to be made when modelling C-N interactions in agricultural ecosystems under future environmental change and the effects these have on terrestrial biogeochemical cycles.

Rainfall and temperatures changes have confounding impacts on Phytophthora cinnamomi occurrence risk in the southwestern USA under climate change scenarios.

PubMed

Thompson, Sally E; Levin, Simon; Rodriguez-Iturbe, Ignacio

2014-04-01

Global change will simultaneously impact many aspects of climate, with the potential to exacerbate the risks posed by plant pathogens to agriculture and the natural environment; yet, most studies that explore climate impacts on plant pathogen ranges consider individual climatic factors separately. In this study, we adopt a stochastic modeling approach to address multiple pathways by which climate can constrain the range of the generalist plant pathogen Phytophthora cinnamomi (Pc): through changing winter soil temperatures affecting pathogen survival; spring soil temperatures and thus pathogen metabolic rates; and changing spring soil moisture conditions and thus pathogen growth rates through host root systems. We apply this model to the southwestern USA for contemporary and plausible future climate scenarios and evaluate the changes in the potential range of Pc. The results indicate that the plausible range of this pathogen in the southwestern USA extends over approximately 200,000 km(2) under contemporary conditions. While warming temperatures as projected by the IPCC A2 and B1 emissions scenarios greatly expand the range over which the pathogen can survive winter, projected reductions in spring rainfall reduce its feasible habitat, leading to spatially complex patterns of changing risk. The study demonstrates that temperature and rainfall changes associated with possible climate futures in the southwestern USA have confounding impacts on the range of Pc, suggesting that projections of future pathogen dynamics and ranges should account for multiple pathways of climate-pathogen interaction. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The Influence of Traditional Culture and the Interpersonal Psychological Theory on Suicide Research in Korea.

PubMed

Park, Yeonsoo; Baik, Seung Yeon; Kim, Hyang-Sook; Lee, Seung-Hwan

2017-11-01

Korea has the highest suicide rate amongst the OECD countries. Yet, its research on suicidal behaviors has been primitive. While the Interpersonal Psychological Theory of Suicide has gained global attention, there has only been a few researches, which examined its applicability in Korea. In this article, we review the previous studies on suicide and examine the association between the Interpersonal Psychological Theory of Suicide and traditional Korean culture, with an emphasis on Collectivism and Confucianism. We propose that pathways to suicide might vary depending on cultural influences. Clinical implications and suggestions for future research will be discussed.

Globalization and social determinants of health: Promoting health equity in global governance (part 3 of 3).

PubMed

Labonté, Ronald; Schrecker, Ted

2007-06-19

This article is the third in a three-part review of research on globalization and the social determinants of health (SDH). In the first article of the series, we identified and defended an economically oriented definition of globalization and addressed a number of important conceptual and metholodogical issues. In the second article, we identified and described seven key clusters of pathways relevant to globalization's influence on SDH. This discussion provided the basis for the premise from which we begin this article: interventions to reduce health inequities by way of SDH are inextricably linked with social protection, economic management and development strategy. Reflecting this insight, and against the background of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), we focus on the asymmetrical distribution of gains, losses and power that is characteristic of globalization in its current form and identify a number of areas for innovation on the part of the international community: making more resources available for health systems, as part of the more general task of expanding and improving development assistance; expanding debt relief and taking poverty reduction more seriously; reforming the international trade regime; considering the implications of health as a human right; and protecting the policy space available to national governments to address social determinants of health, notably with respect to the hypermobility of financial capital. We conclude by suggesting that responses to globalization's effects on social determinants of health can be classified with reference to two contrasting visions of the future, reflecting quite distinct values.

Heat-related mortality in a warming climate: projections for 12 U.S. cities.

PubMed

Petkova, Elisaveta P; Bader, Daniel A; Anderson, G Brooke; Horton, Radley M; Knowlton, Kim; Kinney, Patrick L

2014-10-31

Heat is among the deadliest weather-related phenomena in the United States, and the number of heat-related deaths may increase under a changing climate, particularly in urban areas. Regional adaptation planning is unfortunately often limited by the lack of quantitative information on potential future health responses. This study presents an assessment of the future impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality in 12 cities using 16 global climate models, driven by two scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions. Although the magnitude of the projected heat effects was found to differ across time, cities, climate models and greenhouse pollution emissions scenarios, climate change was projected to result in increases in heat-related fatalities over time throughout the 21st century in all of the 12 cities included in this study. The increase was more substantial under the high emission pathway, highlighting the potential benefits to public health of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Nearly 200,000 heat-related deaths are projected to occur in the 12 cities by the end of the century due to climate warming, over 22,000 of which could be avoided if we follow a low GHG emission pathway. The presented estimates can be of value to local decision makers and stakeholders interested in developing strategies to reduce these impacts and building climate change resilience.

Heat-Related Mortality in a Warming Climate: Projections for 12 U.S. Cities

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Petkova, Elisaveta P.; Bader, Daniel A.; Anderson, G. Brooke; Horton, Radley M.; Knowlton, Kim; Kinney, Patrick L.

2014-01-01

Heat is among the deadliest weather-related phenomena in the United States, and the number of heat-related deaths may increase under a changing climate, particularly in urban areas. Regional adaptation planning is unfortunately often limited by the lack of quantitative information on potential future health responses. This study presents an assessment of the future impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality in 12 cities using 16 global climate models, driven by two scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions. Although the magnitude of the projected heat effects was found to differ across time, cities, climate models and greenhouse pollution emissions scenarios, climate change was projected to result in increases in heat-related fatalities over time throughout the 21st century in all of the 12 cities included in this study. The increase was more substantial under the high emission pathway, highlighting the potential benefits to public health of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Nearly 200,000 heat-related deaths are projected to occur in the 12 cities by the end of the century due to climate warming, over 22,000 of which could be avoided if we follow a low GHG emission pathway. The presented estimates can be of value to local decision makers and stakeholders interested in developing strategies to reduce these impacts and building climate change resilience.

Projected change in East Asian summer monsoon by dynamic downscaling: Moisture budget analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jung, Chun-Yong; Shin, Ho-Jeong; Jang, Chan Joo; Kim, Hyung-Jin

2015-02-01

The summer monsoon considerably affects water resource and natural hazards including flood and drought in East Asia, one of the world's most densely populated area. In this study, we investigate future changes in summer precipitation over East Asia induced by global warming through dynamical downscaling with the Weather Research and Forecast model. We have selected a global model from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 based on an objective evaluation for East Asian summer monsoon and applied its climate change under Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 scenario to a pseudo global warming method. Unlike the previous studies that focused on a qualitative description of projected precipitation changes over East Asia, this study tried to identify the physical causes of the precipitation changes by analyzing a local moisture budget. Projected changes in precipitation over the eastern foothills area of Tibetan Plateau including Sichuan Basin and Yangtze River displayed a contrasting pattern: a decrease in its northern area and an increase in its southern area. A local moisture budget analysis indicated the precipitation increase over the southern area can be mainly attributed to an increase in horizontal wind convergence and surface evaporation. On the other hand, the precipitation decrease over the northern area can be largely explained by horizontal advection of dry air from the northern continent and by divergent wind flow. Regional changes in future precipitation in East Asia are likely to be attributed to different mechanisms which can be better resolved by regional dynamical downscaling.

Defining the Protein–Protein Interaction Network of the Human Hippo Pathway*

PubMed Central

Wang, Wenqi; Li, Xu; Huang, Jun; Feng, Lin; Dolinta, Keithlee G.; Chen, Junjie

2014-01-01

The Hippo pathway, which is conserved from Drosophila to mammals, has been recognized as a tumor suppressor signaling pathway governing cell proliferation and apoptosis, two key events involved in organ size control and tumorigenesis. Although several upstream regulators, the conserved kinase cascade and key downstream effectors including nuclear transcriptional factors have been defined, the global organization of this signaling pathway is not been fully understood. Thus, we conducted a proteomic analysis of human Hippo pathway, which revealed the involvement of an extensive protein–protein interaction network in this pathway. The mass spectrometry data were deposited to ProteomeXchange with identifier PXD000415. Our data suggest that 550 interactions within 343 unique protein components constitute the central protein–protein interaction landscape of human Hippo pathway. Our study provides a glimpse into the global organization of Hippo pathway, reveals previously unknown interactions within this pathway, and uncovers new potential components involved in the regulation of this pathway. Understanding these interactions will help us further dissect the Hippo signaling-pathway and extend our knowledge of organ size control. PMID:24126142

Global assessment of water policy vulnerability under uncertainty in water scarcity projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Greve, Peter; Kahil, Taher; Satoh, Yusuke; Burek, Peter; Fischer, Günther; Tramberend, Sylvia; Byers, Edward; Flörke, Martina; Eisner, Stephanie; Hanasaki, Naota; Langan, Simon; Wada, Yoshihide

2017-04-01

Water scarcity is a critical environmental issue worldwide, which has been driven by the significant increase in water extractions during the last century. In the coming decades, climate change is projected to further exacerbate water scarcity conditions in many regions around the world. At present, one important question for policy debate is the identification of water policy interventions that could address the mounting water scarcity problems. Main interventions include investing in water storage infrastructures, water transfer canals, efficient irrigation systems, and desalination plants, among many others. This type of interventions involve long-term planning, long-lived investments and some irreversibility in choices which can shape development of countries for decades. Making decisions on these water infrastructures requires anticipating the long term environmental conditions, needs and constraints under which they will function. This brings large uncertainty in the decision-making process, for instance from demographic or economic projections. But today, climate change is bringing another layer of uncertainty that make decisions even more complex. In this study, we assess in a probabilistic approach the uncertainty in global water scarcity projections following different socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and climate scenarios (RCPs) within the first half of the 21st century. By utilizing an ensemble of 45 future water scarcity projections based on (i) three state-of-the-art global hydrological models (PCR-GLOBWB, H08, and WaterGAP), (ii) five climate models, and (iii) three water scenarios, we have assessed changes in water scarcity and the associated uncertainty distribution worldwide. The water scenarios used here are developed by IIASA's Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS) Initiative. The main objective of this study is to improve the contribution of hydro-climatic information to effective policymaking by identifying spatial and temporal policy vulnerabilities under large uncertainty about the future socio-economic and climatic changes and to guide policymakers in charting a more sustainable pathway and avoiding maladaptive development pathways. The results show that water scarcity is increasing in up to 83% of all land area under a high-emission scenario (RCP 6.0-SSP3). Importantly, the range of uncertainty in projected water scarcity is increasing; in some regions by several orders of magnitude (e.g. sub-Saharan Africa, eastern Europe, Central Asia). This is further illustrated by focusing on a set of large river basins that will be subject both to substantial changes in basin-wide water scarcity and to strong increases in the overall range of uncertainty (e.g. the Niger, Indus, Yangtze). These conditions pose a significant challenge for water management options in those vulnerable basins, complicating decisions on needed investments in water supply infrastructure and other system improvements, and leading to the degradation of valuable resources such as non-renewable groundwater resources and water-dependent ecosystems. The results of this study call for careful and deliberative design of water policy interventions under a wide range of socio-economic and climate conditions.

Pathways to Educational Success among Refugees: Connecting Locally and Globally Situated Resources

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dryden-Peterson, Sarah; Dahya, Negin; Adelman, Elizabeth

2017-01-01

This study identifies pathways to educational success among refugees. Data are from an original online survey of Somali diaspora and in-depth qualitative interviews with Somali refugee students educated in the Dadaab refugee camps of Kenya. This research builds on Bronfenbrenner's ecological model to consider both the locally and globally situated…

Global reductions in seafloor biomass in response to climate change.

PubMed

Jones, Daniel O B; Yool, Andrew; Wei, Chih-Lin; Henson, Stephanie A; Ruhl, Henry A; Watson, Reg A; Gehlen, Marion

2014-06-01

Seafloor organisms are vital for healthy marine ecosystems, contributing to elemental cycling, benthic remineralization, and ultimately sequestration of carbon. Deep-sea life is primarily reliant on the export flux of particulate organic carbon from the surface ocean for food, but most ocean biogeochemistry models predict global decreases in export flux resulting from 21st century anthropogenically induced warming. Here we show that decadal-to-century scale changes in carbon export associated with climate change lead to an estimated 5.2% decrease in future (2091-2100) global open ocean benthic biomass under RCP8.5 (reduction of 5.2 Mt C) compared with contemporary conditions (2006-2015). Our projections use multi-model mean export flux estimates from eight fully coupled earth system models, which contributed to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5, that have been forced by high and low representative concentration pathways (RCP8.5 and 4.5, respectively). These export flux estimates are used in conjunction with published empirical relationships to predict changes in benthic biomass. The polar oceans and some upwelling areas may experience increases in benthic biomass, but most other regions show decreases, with up to 38% reductions in parts of the northeast Atlantic. Our analysis projects a future ocean with smaller sized infaunal benthos, potentially reducing energy transfer rates though benthic multicellular food webs. More than 80% of potential deep-water biodiversity hotspots known around the world, including canyons, seamounts, and cold-water coral reefs, are projected to experience negative changes in biomass. These major reductions in biomass may lead to widespread change in benthic ecosystems and the functions and services they provide. © 2013 The Authors Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Response of the oceanic methane hydrate inventory to future climate change (AR5 RCP 4.5 - 8.5)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hunter, S. J.; Goldobin, D.; Haywood, A. M.; Ridgwell, A. J.; Rees, J.

2012-12-01

We present results from a study designed to look at the change in global methane hydrate volume in response to AR5 Representative Concentration Pathways (Fifth Assessment Report RCP). We use bottom water conditions derived from 12 climate models within the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble along with a series of linear sea-level models to define boundary conditions. We model the change in global hydrate stability zone volume and hydrate inventory from the pre-industrial era and forward model through the RCP scenarios (to 2100 and 2300) to 5 kyr into the future. We find that thermal effects (i.e. warming induced hydrate dissociation) are dominant even when accompanied by extreme rates of sea level rise (i.e. 15 and 20 mm yr-1). Over the coming century dissociation is focussed within the top 100 m of Arctic and Subarctic sediments, beneath < ˜500 m water depth. Assuming a simple model of hydrate fill fraction (with a nominal 1% average hydrate-fill fraction) estimated globally integrated hydrate dissociation rates at ˜2100 are 120, 140 and 180 Tg CH4 yr-1 for RCP 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5 and at year ˜2300 are 150 and 600 Tg CH4 yr-1 under ECP 4.5 and 8.5 respectively. Under the unmitigated business-as-usual scenario (RCP 8.5) globally-integrated CH4 fluxes from hydrate dissociation could exceed estimates of natural sea-floor levels by 2100. Subsequent oxidation of resulting CH4 within the water column would significantly reduce atmospheric release rates to between ˜0.7 and ˜1.4 Tg CH4 yr-1 at ˜2100.

Global climate change: the quantifiable sustainability challenge.

PubMed

Princiotta, Frank T; Loughlin, Daniel H

2014-09-01

Population growth and the pressures spawned by increasing demands for energy and resource-intensive goods, foods, and services are driving unsustainable growth in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Recent GHG emission trends are consistent with worst-case scenarios of the previous decade. Dramatic and near-term emission reductions likely will be needed to ameliorate the potential deleterious impacts of climate change. To achieve such reductions, fundamental changes are required in the way that energy is generated and used. New technologies must be developed and deployed at a rapid rate. Advances in carbon capture and storage, renewable, nuclear and transportation technologies are particularly important; however, global research and development efforts related to these technologies currently appear to fall short relative to needs. Even with a proactive and international mitigation effort, humanity will need to adapt to climate change, but the adaptation needs and damages will be far greater if mitigation activities are not pursued in earnest. In this review, research is highlighted that indicates increasing global and regional temperatures and ties climate changes to increasing GHG emissions. GHG mitigation targets necessary for limiting future global temperature increases are discussed, including how factors such as population growth and the growing energy intensity of the developing world will make these reduction targets more challenging. Potential technological pathways for meeting emission reduction targets are examined, barriers are discussed, and global and US. modeling results are presented that suggest that the necessary pathways will require radically transformed electric and mobile sectors. While geoengineering options have been proposed to allow more time for serious emission reductions, these measures are at the conceptual stage with many unanswered cost, environmental, and political issues. Implications: This paper lays out the case that mitigating the potential for catastrophic climate change will be a monumental challenge, requiring the global community to transform its energy system in an aggressive, coordinated, and timely manner. If this challenge is to be met, new technologies will have to be developed and deployed at a rapid rate. Advances in carbon capture and storage, renewable, nuclear, and transportation technologies are particularly important. Even with an aggressive international mitigation effort, humanity will still need to adapt to significant climate change.

Fueling Future with Algal Genomics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Grigoriev, Igor

Algae constitute a major component of fundamental eukaryotic diversity, play profound roles in the carbon cycle, and are prominent candidates for biofuel production. The US Department of Energy Joint Genome Institute (JGI) is leading the world in algal genome sequencing (http://jgi.doe.gov/Algae) and contributes of the algal genome projects worldwide (GOLD database, 2012). The sequenced algal genomes offer catalogs of genes, networks, and pathways. The sequenced first of its kind genomes of a haptophyte E.huxleyii, chlorarachniophyte B.natans, and cryptophyte G.theta fill the gaps in the eukaryotic tree of life and carry unique genes and pathways as well as molecular fossils ofmore » secondary endosymbiosis. Natural adaptation to conditions critical for industrial production is encoded in algal genomes, for example, growth of A.anophagefferens at very high cell densities during the harmful algae blooms or a global distribution across diverse environments of E.huxleyii, able to live on sparse nutrients due to its expanded pan-genome. Communications and signaling pathways can be derived from simple symbiotic systems like lichens or complex marine algae metagenomes. Collectively these datasets derived from algal genomics contribute to building a comprehensive parts list essential for algal biofuel development.« less

Plant communities as drivers of soil respiration: pathways, mechanisms, and significance for global change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Metcalfe, D. B.; Fisher, R. A.; Wardle, D. A.

2011-08-01

Understanding the impacts of plant community characteristics on soil carbon dioxide efflux (R) is a key prerequisite for accurate prediction of the future carbon (C) balance of terrestrial ecosystems under climate change. However, developing a mechanistic understanding of the determinants of R is complicated by the presence of multiple different sources of respiratory C within soil - such as soil microbes, plant roots and their mycorrhizal symbionts - each with their distinct dynamics and drivers. In this review, we synthesize relevant information from a wide spectrum of sources to evaluate the current state of knowledge about plant community effects on R, examine how this information is incorporated into global climate models, and highlight priorities for future research. Despite often large variation amongst studies and methods, several general trends emerge. Mechanisms whereby plants affect R may be grouped into effects on belowground C allocation, aboveground litter properties and microclimate. Within vegetation types, the amount of C diverted belowground, and hence R, may be controlled mainly by the rate of photosynthetic C uptake, while amongst vegetation types this should be more dependent upon the specific C allocation strategies of the plant life form. We make the case that plant community composition, rather than diversity, is usually the dominant control on R in natural systems. Individual species impacts on R may be largest where the species accounts for most of the biomass in the ecosystem, has very distinct traits to the rest of the community and/or modulates the occurrence of major natural disturbances. We show that climate vegetation models incorporate a number of pathways whereby plants can affect R, but that simplifications regarding allocation schemes and drivers of litter decomposition may limit model accuracy. We also suggest that under a warmer future climate, many plant communities may shift towards dominance by fast growing plants which produce large quantities of nutrient rich litter. Where this community shift occurs, it could drive an increase in R beyond that expected from direct climate impacts on soil microbial activity alone. We identify key gaps in knowledge and recommend them as priorities for future work. These include the patterns of photosynthate partitioning amongst belowground components, ecosystem level effects of individual plant traits, and the importance of trophic interactions and species invasions or extinctions for ecosystem processes. A final, overarching challenge is how to link these observations and drivers across spatio-temporal scales to predict regional or global changes in R over long time periods. A more unified approach to understanding R, which integrates information about plant traits and community dynamics, will be essential for better understanding, simulating and predicting patterns of R across terrestrial ecosystems and its role within the earth-climate system.

An approach toward incorporation of global warming effects into Intensity-Duration-Frequency values

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kunkel, K.; Easterling, D. R.

2017-12-01

Rising global temperatures from increasing greenhouse gas concentrations will increase overall atmospheric water vapor concentrations. There is a high level of scientific confidence that this will increase the future intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation events, even in regions where overall precipitation may decrease. For control of runoff from extreme rainfall, infrastructure engineering utilizes design values of rainfall known as Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) values. Use of the existing IDF values, which are based solely on historical climate records, is likely to lead to under-design of runoff control structures, and associated increased flood damages. However, future changes in IDF values are uncertain and probably regionally variable. Our paradigm is that changes in IDF values will result from changes in atmospheric capacity (water vapor concentrations) and opportunity (the number and intensity of heavy precipitation-producing storm systems). Relevant storm systems being investigated include extratropical cyclones and their associated fronts, tropical cyclones, and the North American Monsoon system. The overall approach involves developing IDF adjustment factors for changes in these components of the climate system. The adjustment factors have associated uncertainties, primarily from (1) uncertainties in the future pathway of greenhouse gas emissions and (2) variations among climate models in the sensitivity of the climate system to greenhouse gas concentration changes. In addition to meteorological considerations, the lifetime of projects designed using IDF values is an essential consideration because the IDF values may change substantially during that time. The initial results of this project will be discussed.

The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview

DOE PAGES

Riahi, Keywan; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Kriegler, Elmar; ...

2017-09-09

This study presents the overview of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and their energy, land use, and emissions implications. The SSPs are part of a new scenario framework, established by the climate change research community in order to facilitate the integrated analysis of future climate impacts, vulnerabilities, adaptation, and mitigation. The pathways were developed over the last years as a joint community effort and describe plausible major global developments that together would lead in the future to different challenges for mitigation and adaptation to climate change. The SSPs are based on five narratives describing alternative socio-economic developments, including sustainable development,more » regional rivalry, inequality, fossil-fueled development, and middle-of-the-road development. The long-term demographic and economic projections of the SSPs depict a wide uncertainty range consistent with the scenario literature. A multi-model approach was used for the elaboration of the energy, land-use and the emissions trajectories of SSP-based scenarios. The baseline scenarios lead to global energy consumption of 400–1200 EJ in 2100, and feature vastly different land-use dynamics, ranging from a possible reduction in cropland area up to a massive expansion by more than 700 million hectares by 2100. The associated annual CO 2 emissions of the baseline scenarios range from about 25 GtCO 2 to more than 120 GtCO 2 per year by 2100. With respect to mitigation, we find that associated costs strongly depend on three factors: (1) the policy assumptions, (2) the socio-economic narrative, and (3) the stringency of the target. The carbon price for reaching the target of 2.6 W/m 2 that is consistent with a temperature change limit of 2 °C, differs in our analysis thus by about a factor of three across the SSP marker scenarios. Moreover, many models could not reach this target from the SSPs with high mitigation challenges. While the SSPs were designed to represent different mitigation and adaptation challenges, the resulting narratives and quantifications span a wide range of different futures broadly representative of the current literature. This allows their subsequent use and development in new assessments and research projects. Critical next steps for the community scenario process will, among others, involve regional and sectoral extensions, further elaboration of the adaptation and impacts dimension, as well as employing the SSP scenarios with the new generation of earth system models as part of the 6th climate model intercomparison project (CMIP6).« less

The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Riahi, Keywan; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Kriegler, Elmar

This study presents the overview of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and their energy, land use, and emissions implications. The SSPs are part of a new scenario framework, established by the climate change research community in order to facilitate the integrated analysis of future climate impacts, vulnerabilities, adaptation, and mitigation. The pathways were developed over the last years as a joint community effort and describe plausible major global developments that together would lead in the future to different challenges for mitigation and adaptation to climate change. The SSPs are based on five narratives describing alternative socio-economic developments, including sustainable development,more » regional rivalry, inequality, fossil-fueled development, and middle-of-the-road development. The long-term demographic and economic projections of the SSPs depict a wide uncertainty range consistent with the scenario literature. A multi-model approach was used for the elaboration of the energy, land-use and the emissions trajectories of SSP-based scenarios. The baseline scenarios lead to global energy consumption of 400–1200 EJ in 2100, and feature vastly different land-use dynamics, ranging from a possible reduction in cropland area up to a massive expansion by more than 700 million hectares by 2100. The associated annual CO 2 emissions of the baseline scenarios range from about 25 GtCO 2 to more than 120 GtCO 2 per year by 2100. With respect to mitigation, we find that associated costs strongly depend on three factors: (1) the policy assumptions, (2) the socio-economic narrative, and (3) the stringency of the target. The carbon price for reaching the target of 2.6 W/m 2 that is consistent with a temperature change limit of 2 °C, differs in our analysis thus by about a factor of three across the SSP marker scenarios. Moreover, many models could not reach this target from the SSPs with high mitigation challenges. While the SSPs were designed to represent different mitigation and adaptation challenges, the resulting narratives and quantifications span a wide range of different futures broadly representative of the current literature. This allows their subsequent use and development in new assessments and research projects. Critical next steps for the community scenario process will, among others, involve regional and sectoral extensions, further elaboration of the adaptation and impacts dimension, as well as employing the SSP scenarios with the new generation of earth system models as part of the 6th climate model intercomparison project (CMIP6).« less

Climate, ocean circulation, and sea level changes under stabilization and overshoot pathways to 1.5 K warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palter, Jaime B.; Frölicher, Thomas L.; Paynter, David; John, Jasmin G.

2018-06-01

The Paris Agreement has initiated a scientific debate on the role that carbon removal - or net negative emissions - might play in achieving less than 1.5 K of global mean surface warming by 2100. Here, we probe the sensitivity of a comprehensive Earth system model (GFDL-ESM2M) to three different atmospheric CO2 concentration pathways, two of which arrive at 1.5 K of warming in 2100 by very different pathways. We run five ensemble members of each of these simulations: (1) a standard Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP4.5) scenario, which produces 2 K of surface warming by 2100 in our model; (2) a stabilization pathway in which atmospheric CO2 concentration never exceeds 440 ppm and the global mean temperature rise is approximately 1.5 K by 2100; and (3) an overshoot pathway that passes through 2 K of warming at mid-century, before ramping down atmospheric CO2 concentrations, as if using carbon removal, to end at 1.5 K of warming at 2100. Although the global mean surface temperature change in response to the overshoot pathway is similar to the stabilization pathway in 2100, this similarity belies several important differences in other climate metrics, such as warming over land masses, the strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), ocean acidification, sea ice coverage, and the global mean sea level change and its regional expressions. In 2100, the overshoot ensemble shows a greater global steric sea level rise and weaker AMOC mass transport than in the stabilization scenario, with both of these metrics close to the ensemble mean of RCP4.5. There is strong ocean surface cooling in the North Atlantic Ocean and Southern Ocean in response to overshoot forcing due to perturbations in the ocean circulation. Thus, overshoot forcing in this model reduces the rate of sea ice loss in the Labrador, Nordic, Ross, and Weddell seas relative to the stabilized pathway, suggesting a negative radiative feedback in response to the early rapid warming. Finally, the ocean perturbation in response to warming leads to strong pathway dependence of sea level rise in northern North American cities, with overshoot forcing producing up to 10 cm of additional sea level rise by 2100 relative to stabilization forcing.

Thymus transcriptome reveals novel pathways in response to avian pathogenic Escherichia coli infection.

PubMed

Sun, H; Liu, P; Nolan, L K; Lamont, S J

2016-12-01

Avian pathogenic Escherichia coli (APEC) can cause significant morbidity in chickens. The thymus provides the essential environment for T cell development; however, the thymus transcriptome has not been examined for gene expression in response to APEC infection. An improved understanding of the host genomic response to APEC infection could inform future breeding programs for disease resistance and APEC control. We therefore analyzed the transcriptome of the thymus of birds challenged with APEC, contrasting susceptible and resistant phenotypes. Thousands of genes were differentially expressed in birds of the 5-day post infection (dpi) challenged-susceptible group vs. 5 dpi non-challenged, in 5 dpi challenged-susceptible vs. 5 dpi challenged-resistant birds, as well as in 5 dpi vs. one dpi challenged-susceptible birds. The Toll-like receptor signaling pathway was the major innate immune response for birds to respond to APEC infection. Moreover, lysosome and cell adhesion molecules pathways were common mechanisms for chicken response to APEC infection. The T-cell receptor signaling pathway, cell cycle, and p53 signaling pathways were significantly activated in resistant birds to resist APEC infection. These results provide a comprehensive assessment of global gene networks and biological functionalities of differentially expressed genes in the thymus under APEC infection. These findings provide novel insights into key molecular genetic mechanisms that differentiate host resistance from susceptibility in this primary lymphoid tissue, the thymus. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Poultry Science Association.

Analyzing the Response of Climate Perturbations to (Tropical) Cyclones using the WRF Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tewari, M.; Mittal, R.; Radhakrishnan, C.; Cipriani, J.; Watson, C.

2015-12-01

An analysis of global climate models shows considerable changes in the intensity and characteristics of future, warm climate cyclones. At regional scales, deviations in cyclone characteristics are often derived using idealized perturbations in the humidity, temperature and surface conditions. In this work, a more realistic approach is adopted by applying climate perturbations from the Community Climate System Model (CCSM4) to ERA-interim data to generate the initial and boundary conditions for future climate simulations. The climate signal perturbations are generated from the differences in 21 years of mean data from CCSM4 with representative concentration pathways (RCP8.5) for the periods: (a) 2070-2090 (future climate), (b) 2025-2045 (near-future climate) and (c) 1985-2005 (current climate). Four individual cyclone cases are simulated with and without climate perturbations using the Weather Research and Forecasting model with a nested configuration. Each cyclone is characterized by variations in intensity, landfall location, precipitation and societal damage. To calculate societal damage, we use the recently introduced Cyclone Damage Potential (CDP) index evolved from the Willis Hurricane Index (WHI). As CDP has been developed for general societal applications, this work should provide useful insights for resilience analyses and industry (e.g., re-insurance).

Integrated pathway-based approach identifies association between genomic regions at CTCF and CACNB2 and schizophrenia.

PubMed

Juraeva, Dilafruz; Haenisch, Britta; Zapatka, Marc; Frank, Josef; Witt, Stephanie H; Mühleisen, Thomas W; Treutlein, Jens; Strohmaier, Jana; Meier, Sandra; Degenhardt, Franziska; Giegling, Ina; Ripke, Stephan; Leber, Markus; Lange, Christoph; Schulze, Thomas G; Mössner, Rainald; Nenadic, Igor; Sauer, Heinrich; Rujescu, Dan; Maier, Wolfgang; Børglum, Anders; Ophoff, Roel; Cichon, Sven; Nöthen, Markus M; Rietschel, Marcella; Mattheisen, Manuel; Brors, Benedikt

2014-06-01

In the present study, an integrated hierarchical approach was applied to: (1) identify pathways associated with susceptibility to schizophrenia; (2) detect genes that may be potentially affected in these pathways since they contain an associated polymorphism; and (3) annotate the functional consequences of such single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in the affected genes or their regulatory regions. The Global Test was applied to detect schizophrenia-associated pathways using discovery and replication datasets comprising 5,040 and 5,082 individuals of European ancestry, respectively. Information concerning functional gene-sets was retrieved from the Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes, Gene Ontology, and the Molecular Signatures Database. Fourteen of the gene-sets or pathways identified in the discovery dataset were confirmed in the replication dataset. These include functional processes involved in transcriptional regulation and gene expression, synapse organization, cell adhesion, and apoptosis. For two genes, i.e. CTCF and CACNB2, evidence for association with schizophrenia was available (at the gene-level) in both the discovery study and published data from the Psychiatric Genomics Consortium schizophrenia study. Furthermore, these genes mapped to four of the 14 presently identified pathways. Several of the SNPs assigned to CTCF and CACNB2 have potential functional consequences, and a gene in close proximity to CACNB2, i.e. ARL5B, was identified as a potential gene of interest. Application of the present hierarchical approach thus allowed: (1) identification of novel biological gene-sets or pathways with potential involvement in the etiology of schizophrenia, as well as replication of these findings in an independent cohort; (2) detection of genes of interest for future follow-up studies; and (3) the highlighting of novel genes in previously reported candidate regions for schizophrenia.

Systematic review of pathways for the delivery of allergy services.

PubMed

Diwakar, Lavanya; Cummins, Carole; Lilford, Richard; Roberts, Tracy

2017-02-07

The incidence and prevalence of allergies worldwide has been increasing and allergy services globally are unable to keep up with this increase in demand. This systematic review aims to understand the delivery of allergy services worldwide, challenges faced and future directions for service delivery. A systematic scoping review of Ovid, EMBASE, HMIC, CINAHL, Cochrane, DARE, NHS EED and INAHTA databases was carried out using predefined inclusion and exclusion criteria. Data on the geographical region, study design and treatment pathways described were collected, and the findings were narratively reported. This review followed the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses (PRISMA) guidelines. 205 publications were screened and 27 selected for review. Only 3 were prospective studies, and none included a control group. There were no eligible publications identified from North America, Africa, Australia and most parts of Asia. Most publications relate to allergy services in the UK. In general, allergy services globally appear not to have kept pace with increasing demand. The review suggests that primary care practitioners are not being adequately trained in allergy and that there is a paucity of appropriately trained specialists, especially in paediatric allergy. There appear to be considerable barriers to service improvement, including lack of political will and reluctance to allocate funds from local budgets. Demand for allergy services appears to have significantly outpaced supply. Primary and secondary care pathways in allergy seem inadequate leading to poor referral practices, delays in patient management and consequently poor outcomes. Improvement of services requires strong public and political engagement. There is a need for well-planned, prospective studies in this area and a few are currently underway. There is no evidence to suggest that any given pathway of service provision is better than another although data from a few long-term, prospective studies look very promising. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Systematic review of pathways for the delivery of allergy services

PubMed Central

Cummins, Carole; Lilford, Richard; Roberts, Tracy

2017-01-01

Objectives The incidence and prevalence of allergies worldwide has been increasing and allergy services globally are unable to keep up with this increase in demand. This systematic review aims to understand the delivery of allergy services worldwide, challenges faced and future directions for service delivery. Methods A systematic scoping review of Ovid, EMBASE, HMIC, CINAHL, Cochrane, DARE, NHS EED and INAHTA databases was carried out using predefined inclusion and exclusion criteria. Data on the geographical region, study design and treatment pathways described were collected, and the findings were narratively reported. This review followed the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses (PRISMA) guidelines. Results 205 publications were screened and 27 selected for review. Only 3 were prospective studies, and none included a control group. There were no eligible publications identified from North America, Africa, Australia and most parts of Asia. Most publications relate to allergy services in the UK. In general, allergy services globally appear not to have kept pace with increasing demand. The review suggests that primary care practitioners are not being adequately trained in allergy and that there is a paucity of appropriately trained specialists, especially in paediatric allergy. There appear to be considerable barriers to service improvement, including lack of political will and reluctance to allocate funds from local budgets. Conclusions Demand for allergy services appears to have significantly outpaced supply. Primary and secondary care pathways in allergy seem inadequate leading to poor referral practices, delays in patient management and consequently poor outcomes. Improvement of services requires strong public and political engagement. There is a need for well-planned, prospective studies in this area and a few are currently underway. There is no evidence to suggest that any given pathway of service provision is better than another although data from a few long-term, prospective studies look very promising. PMID:28174222

Importance of Anthropogenic Aerosols for Climate Prediction: a Study on East Asian Sulfate Aerosols

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bartlett, R. E.; Bollasina, M. A.

2017-12-01

Climate prediction is vital to ensure that we are able to adapt to our changing climate. Understandably, the main focus for such prediction is greenhouse gas forcing, as this will be the main anthropogenic driver of long-term global climate change; however, other forcings could still be important. Atmospheric aerosols represent one such forcing, especially in regions with high present-day aerosol loading such as Asia; yet, uncertainty in their future emissions are under-sampled by commonly used climate forcing projections, such as the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Globally, anthropogenic aerosols exert a net cooling, but their effects show large variation at regional scales. Studies have shown that aerosols impact locally upon temperature, precipitation and hydroclimate, and also upon larger scale atmospheric circulation (for example, the Asian monsoon) with implications for climate remote from aerosol sources. We investigate how future climate could evolve differently given the same greenhouse gas forcing pathway but differing aerosol emissions. Specifically, we use climate modelling experiments (using HadGEM2-ES) of two scenarios based upon RCP2.6 greenhouse gas forcing but with large differences in sulfur dioxide emissions over East Asia. Results show that increased sulfate aerosols (associated with increased sulfur dioxide) lead to large regional cooling through aerosol-radiation and aerosol-cloud interactions. Focussing on dynamical mechanisms, we explore the consequences of this cooling for the Asian summer and winter monsoons. In addition to local temperature and precipitation changes, we find significant changes to large scale atmospheric circulation. Wave-like responses to upper-level atmospheric changes propagate across the northern hemisphere with far-reaching effects on surface climate, for example, cooling over Europe. Within the tropics, we find alterations to zonal circulation (notably, shifts in the Pacific Walker cell) and monsoon systems outside of Asia. These results indicate that anthropogenic aerosols have significant climate impacts against a background of greenhouse gas-induced climate change, and thus represent a key source of uncertainty in near-term climate projection that should be seriously considered in future climate assessments.

Peatland hydrology and carbon release: why small-scale process matters.

PubMed

Holden, Joseph

2005-12-15

Peatlands cover over 400 million hectares of the Earth's surface and store between one-third and one-half of the world's soil carbon pool. The long-term ability of peatlands to absorb carbon dioxide from the atmosphere means that they play a major role in moderating global climate. Peatlands can also either attenuate or accentuate flooding. Changing climate or management can alter peatland hydrological processes and pathways for water movement across and below the peat surface. It is the movement of water in peats that drives carbon storage and flux. These small-scale processes can have global impacts through exacerbated terrestrial carbon release. This paper will describe advances in understanding environmental processes operating in peatlands. Recent (and future) advances in high-resolution topographic data collection and hydrological modelling provide an insight into the spatial impacts of land management and climate change in peatlands. Nevertheless, there are still some major challenges for future research. These include the problem that impacts of disturbance in peat can be irreversible, at least on human time-scales. This has implications for the perceived success and understanding of peatland restoration strategies. In some circumstances, peatland restoration may lead to exacerbated carbon loss. This will also be important if we decide to start to create peatlands in order to counter the threat from enhanced atmospheric carbon.

Emotional Stress as a Risk for Hypertension in Sub-Saharan Africans: Are We Ignoring the Odds?

PubMed

Malan, Leoné; Malan, Nico T

2017-01-01

Globally most interventions focus on improving lifestyle habits and treatment regimens to combat hypertension as a non-communicable disease (NCD). However, despite these interventions and improved medical treatments, blood pressure (BP) values are still on the rise and poorly controlled in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Other factors contributing to hypertension prevalence, such as chronic emotional stress, might provide some insight for future health policy approaches.Currently, Hypertension Society guidelines do not mention emotional stress as a probable cause for hypertension. Recently the 2014 World Global Health reports, suggested that African governments should consider using World Health Organization hypertension data as a proxy indicator for social well-being. However, the possibility that a stressful life and taxing environmental factors might disturb central neural control of BP regulation has largely been ignored in SSA.Linking emotional stress to vascular dysregulation is therefore one way to investigate increased cardiometabolic challenges, neurotransmitter depletion and disturbed hemodynamics. Disruption of stress response pathways and subsequent changes in lifestyle habits as ways of coping with a stressful life, and as probable cause for hypertension prevalence in SSA, may be included in future preventive measures. We will provide an overview on emotional stress and central neural control of BP and will include also implications thereof for clinical practice in SSA cohorts.

Historical emissions critical for mapping decarbonization pathways

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Majkut, J.; Kopp, R. E.; Sarmiento, J. L.; Oppenheimer, M.

2016-12-01

Policymakers have set a goal of limiting temperature increase from human influence on the climate. This motivates the identification of decarbonization pathways to stabilize atmospheric concentrations of CO2. In this context, the future behavior of CO2 sources and sinks define the CO2 emissions necessary to meet warming thresholds with specified probabilities. We adopt a simple model of the atmosphere-land-ocean carbon balance to reflect uncertainty in how natural CO2 sinks will respond to increasing atmospheric CO2 and temperature. Bayesian inversion is used to estimate the probability distributions of selected parameters of the carbon model. Prior probability distributions are chosen to reflect the behavior of CMIP5 models. We then update these prior distributions by running historical simulations of the global carbon cycle and inverting with observationally-based inventories and fluxes of anthropogenic carbon in the ocean and atmosphere. The result is a best-estimate of historical CO2 sources and sinks and a model of how CO2 sources and sinks will vary in the future under various emissions scenarios, with uncertainty. By linking the carbon model to a simple climate model, we calculate emissions pathways and carbon budgets consistent with meeting specific temperature thresholds and identify key factors that contribute to remaining uncertainty. In particular, we show how the assumed history of CO2 emissions from land use change (LUC) critically impacts estimates of the strength of the land CO2 sink via CO2 fertilization. Different estimates of historical LUC emissions taken from the literature lead to significantly different parameterizations of the carbon system. High historical CO2 emissions from LUC lead to a more robust CO2 fertilization effect, significantly lower future atmospheric CO2 concentrations, and an increased amount of CO2 that can be emitted to satisfy temperature stabilization targets. Thus, in our model, historical LUC emissions have a significant impact on allowable carbon budgets under temperture targets.

Projecting optimal land-use and -management strategies under population growth and climate change using a coupled ecosystem & land use model framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rabin, Sam; Alexander, Peter; Anthoni, Peter; Henry, Roslyn; Huntingford, Chris; Pugh, Thomas; Rounsevell, Mark; Arneth, Almut

2017-04-01

A major question facing humanity is how well agricultural production systems will be able to feed the world in a future of rapid climate change, population growth, and demand shifts—all while minimizing our impact on the natural world. Global modeling has frequently been used to investigate certain aspects of this question, but in order to properly address the challenge, no one part of the human-environmental system can be assessed in isolation. It is especially critical that the effect on agricultural yields of changing temperature and precipitation regimes (including seasonal timing and frequency and intensity of extreme events), as well as rising atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, be taken into account when planning for future food security. Coupled modeling efforts, where changes in various parts of the Earth system are allowed to feed back onto one another, represent a powerful strategy in this regard. This presentation describes the structure and initial results of an effort to couple a biologically-representative vegetation and crop production simulator, LPJ-GUESS, with the climate emulator IMOGEN and the land-use model PLUMv2. With IMOGEN providing detailed future weather simulations, LPJ-GUESS simulates natural vegetation as well as cropland and pasture/rangeland; the simulated exchange of greenhouse gases between the land and atmosphere feeds back into IMOGEN's predictions. LPJ-GUESS also produces potential vegetation yields for irrigated vs. rainfed crops under three levels of nitrogen fertilizer addition. PLUMv2 combines these potential yields with endogenous demand and agricultural commodity price to calculate an optimal set of land use distributions and management strategies across the world for the next five years of simulation, based on socio-economic scenario data. These land uses are then fed back into LPJ-GUESS, and the cycle of climate, greenhouse gas emissions, crop yields, and land-use change continues. The globally gridded nature of the model—at 0.5-degree resolution across the world—generates spatially explicit projections at a sub-national scale relevant to individual land managers. Here, we present the results of using the LPJ-GUESS-PLUM-IMOGEN coupled model to project agricultural production and management strategies under several scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions (the Representative Concentration Pathways) and socioeconomic futures (the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways) through the year 2100. In the future, the coupled model could be used to generate projections for alternative scenarios: for example, to consider the implications from land-based climate change mitigation policies, or changes to international trade tariffs regimes.

Impact of future warming on winter chilling in Australia.

PubMed

Darbyshire, Rebecca; Webb, Leanne; Goodwin, Ian; Barlow, E W R

2013-05-01

Increases in temperature as a result of anthropogenically generated greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are likely to impact key aspects of horticultural production. The potential effect of higher temperatures on fruit and nut trees' ability to break winter dormancy, which requires exposure to winter chilling temperatures, was considered. Three chill models (the 0-7.2°C, Modified Utah, and Dynamic models) were used to investigate changes in chill accumulation at 13 sites across Australia according to localised temperature change related to 1, 2 and 3°C increases in global average temperatures. This methodology avoids reliance on outcomes of future GHG emission pathways, which vary and are likely to change. Regional impacts and rates of decline in chilling differ among the chill models, with the 0-7.2°C model indicating the greatest reduction and the Dynamic model the slowest rate of decline. Elevated and high latitude eastern Australian sites were the least affected while the three more maritime, less elevated Western Australian locations were shown to bear the greatest impact from future warming.

Global burden of oral diseases: emerging concepts, management and interplay with systemic health.

PubMed

Jin, L J; Lamster, I B; Greenspan, J S; Pitts, N B; Scully, C; Warnakulasuriya, S

2016-10-01

This study presents the global burden of major oral diseases with an exegetical commentary on their current profiles, the critical issues in oral healthcare and future perspectives. A narrative overview of current literature was undertaken to synthesise the contexts with critical elaboration and commentary. Oral disease is one of the most common public health issues worldwide with significant socio-economic impacts, and yet it is frequently neglected in public health policy. The oral data extracted from the Global Burden of Disease Study in 2010 (Murray et al, 2012) show that caries, periodontal disease, edentulism, oral cancer and cleft lip/palate collectively accounted for 18 814 000 disability-adjusted life-years; and the global burden of periodontal disease, oral cancer and caries increased markedly by an average of 45.6% from 1990 to 2010 in parallel with the major non-communicable diseases like diabetes by 69.0%. Oral diseases and non-communicable diseases are closely interlinked through sharing common risk factors (e.g. excess sugar consumption and tobacco use) and underlying infection/inflammatory pathways. Oral disease remains a major public health burden worldwide. It is of great importance to integrate oral health into global health agenda via the common risk factor approach. The long-term sustainable strategy for global oral health should focus on health promotion and disease prevention through effective multidisciplinary teamwork. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Future generations, environmental ethics, and global environmental change

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tonn, B.E.

1994-12-31

The elements of a methodology to be employed by the global community to investigate the consequences of global environmental change upon future generations and global ecosystems are outlined in this paper. The methodology is comprised of two major components: A possible future worlds model; and a formal, citizen-oriented process to judge whether the possible future worlds potentially inheritable by future generations meet obligational standards. A broad array of descriptors of future worlds can be encompassed within this framework, including survival of ecosystems and other species and satisfaction of human concerns. The methodology expresses fundamental psychological motivations and human myths journey,more » renewal, mother earth, and being-in-nature-and incorporates several viewpoints on obligations to future generations-maintaining options, fairness, humility, and the cause of humanity. The methodology overcomes several severe drawbacks of the economic-based methods most commonly used for global environmental policy analysis.« less

Psychological Perspectives on Pathways Linking Socioeconomic Status and Physical Health

PubMed Central

Matthews, Karen A.; Gallo, Linda C.

2011-01-01

Low socioeconomic status (SES) is a reliable correlate of poor physical health. Rather than treat SES as a covariate, health psychology has increasingly focused on the psychobiological pathways that inform understanding why SES is related to physical health. This review assesses the status of research that has examined stress and its associated distress, and social and personal resources as pathways. It highlights work on biomarkers and biological pathways related to SES that can serve as intermediate outcomes in future studies. Recent emphasis on the accumulation of psychobiological risks across the life course is summarized and represents an important direction for future research. Studies that test pathways from SES to candidate psychosocial pathways to health outcomes are few in number but promising. Future research should test integrated models rather than taking piecemeal approaches to evidence. Much work remains to be done, but the questions are of great health significance. PMID:20636127

Global Water Resources Under Future Changes: Toward an Improved Estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Islam, M.; Agata, Y.; Hanasaki, N.; Kanae, S.; Oki, T.

2005-05-01

Global water resources availability in the 21st century is going to be an important concern. Despite its international recognition, however, until now there are very limited global estimates of water resources, which considered the geographical linkage between water supply and demand, defined by runoff and its passage through river network. The available studies are again insufficient due to reasons like different approaches in defining water scarcity, simply based on annual average figures without considering the inter-annual or seasonal variability, absence of the inclusion of virtual water trading, etc. In this study, global water resources under future climate change associated with several socio-economic factors were estimated varying over both temporal and spatial scale. Global runoff data was derived from several land surface models under the GSWP2 (Global Soil Wetness Project) project, which was further processed through TRIP (Total Runoff Integrated Pathways) river routing model to produce a 0.5x0.5 degree grid based figure. Water abstraction was estimated for the same spatial resolution for three sectors as domestic, industrial and agriculture. GCM outputs from CCSR and MRI were collected to predict the runoff changes. Socio-economic factors like population and GDP growth, affected mostly the demand part. Instead of simply looking at annual figures, monthly figures for both supply and demand was considered. For an average year, such a seasonal variability can affect the crop yield significantly. In other case, inter-annual variability of runoff can cause for an absolute drought condition. To account for vulnerabilities of a region to future changes, both inter-annual and seasonal effects were thus considered. At present, the study assumed the future agricultural water uses to be unchanged under climatic changes. In this connection, EPIC model is underway to use for estimating future agricultural water demand under climatic changes on a monthly basis. From the estimation of present stress level (withdrawal to resource ratio), the months between January to May was found to have the highest number of population above water stress level, while the months between June to August having lower population in stress. The regions suffering from high seasonal variability are those of Asian monsoon zone, south-central Africa and central-east part of South America. Inter-annual variability, on the other hand, is dominant mostly along the Middle-east or Sahara regions and the western part of South America and Latin America. Virtual water trading among countries was estimated on per capita basis. It shows that many Middle east countries are able to compensate their water stress significantly through virtual water trading. The overall effect of climate change on lowering of river runoff mostly affected Europe, southern part of China and Latin America. India or Central Africa have better runoff availability under changing climate, but still subject to a higher water stress because of socio-economic factors like high population growth and expected increase in rate of water uses. Decrease in population as well as saturation level of maximum water uses along most European countries, on the contrary, relaxed the pressure of lowering river runoff, causing no significant change in future stress.

Future changes in precipitation of the baiu season under RCP scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Okada, Y.; Takemi, T.; Ishikawa, H.

2014-12-01

Recently, the relationship between global warming and rainfall during the rainy season, which called the baiu in Japan, has been attracting attention in association with heavy rainfall in this period. In the Innovative Program of Climate Change Projection for the 21st Century, many studies show a delay in the northward march of the baiu front, and significant increase of daily precipitation amounts around western Japan during the late baiu season (e.g., Kusunoki et al. 2011, Kanada et al. 2012). The future climate experiment in these studies was performed under the IPCC SRES A1B scenarios for global warming conditions. In this study, we discuss the future changes in precipitation using calculated 60km-mesh model (MRI-AGCM3.2H) under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios. Support of this dataset is provided by the Meteorological Research Institute (MRI). These dataset are calculated by setting the Yoshimura (YS) scheme mainly.Seasonal progression of future precipitation generally indicates the northward in RCP2.6 and 4.5 scenarios, around western Japan. In RCP6.0 scenario, precipitation intensity is weak compared to the other scenarios. RCP8.5 scenario is calculated by setting three different cumulus schemes (YS, Arakawa-Schubert (AS), and Kain-Fritsch (KF) schemes). RCP8.5 configured in YS scheme showed that the rainband associated with the baiu front is not clear. Moreover, peak is remarkable during late June. In AS scheme, the precipitation area stagnates around 30 N until August. And it in KF scheme shows gradual northward migration.This work was conducted under the Program for Risk Information on Climate Change supported by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science, and Technology-Japan (MEXT).

77 FR 35944 - Renewal of the Global Markets Advisory Committee

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-06-15

... international standards for regulating futures, swaps, options, and derivatives markets, as well as..., competitive, and financially sound futures and options markets. Meetings of the Global Markets Advisory... COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION Renewal of the Global Markets Advisory Committee AGENCY...

Simulating the impact of climate, land use and human water use on the hydrological system over the period 1850-2100 using PCR-GLOBWB

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bosmans, Joyce; van Beek, Rens; Bierkens, Marc

2015-04-01

In this study we investigate the impact of humans on the global hydrological system by separating the impacts of climate change, land use and land cover change, and human water use in a series of experiments with the PCR-GLOBWB hydrological model (e.g. van Beek et al., 2011; Sutanudjaja et al., 2014). We force PCR-GLOBWB with input from the EC-Earth and CESM GCMs, allowing us to extend our experiments from the pre-industrial (1850) to the end of the century (2099). Two greenhouse gas emission scenarios are used for the coming century: Representative Concentration Pathway 2.6 (RCP2.6), a low-end scenario, as well as the high-end RCP8.5 scenario. Precipitation, temperature and reference potential evapotranspiration are applied to PCR-GLOBWB, after bias-correction using the ISI-MIP method (Hempel et al., 2013). The reference potential evapotranspiration is computed using the Penman-Monteith equation with GCM wind, radiation, temperature, humidity and pressure as opposed to the Hamon method used as default in PCR-GLOBWB. To evaluate the impacts of climate change as well as land use and land cover (LULC) change, we apply a combination of fixed and transient LULC scenarios. First, LULC is kept fixed at 1850 values, so the hydrological model is only experiencing changes in precipitation, temperature and reference potential evapotranspiration. Then, LULC is allowed to vary according to historical reconstructions (HYDE) and future projections per RCP (Hurtt et al., 2011). In these experiments, anthropogenic effects are excluded. This is the first study to evaluate PCR-GLOBWB with pre-industrial or transient LULC in combination with present and future climate change. The next step is to investigate human impacts on the water system, by comparing the experiment with varying LULC to an experiment that additionally includes reservoir operations, human water abstractions including irrigation (paddy and non-paddy) and subsequent return flows. We aim to project future human impacts using information based on Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). In previous studies, domestic, industrial and irrigation water demand were varied over the past decades in PCR-GLOBWB. Here we improve the analyses of human impacts on the hydrological system by looking further into the past and the future, as well as by comparing the impact of human water use to impacts of climate and LULC change. van Beek et al (2011), Global monthly water stress: 1. Water balance and water availability. Water Resources Research, Vol 47. Hempel et al (2013), A trend-preserving bias correction - the ISI-MIP approach. Earth System Dynamics, Vol 4. Hurtt et al (2011), Harmonization of land-use scenarios for the period 1500-2100: 600 years of global gridded annual land-use transitions, wood harvest, and resulting secondary lands. Climatic Change, Vol 109. Sutanudjaja et al (2014), Development and validation of PCR-GLOBWB 2.0: a 5 arc min resolution global hydrology and water resources model. EGU General Assembly Conference Abstracts

Global Futures: The Emerging Scenario.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Seth, Satish C.

1983-01-01

Acknowledging global interdependence, especially in economics, may be the most important step toward resolving international conflicts. Describes seven major global dangers and gives scenarios for exploring likely global futures. As "tools of prescription" these global models are inadequate, but as "tools of analysis" they have…

Photomixotrophic chemical production in cyanobacteria.

PubMed

Matson, Morgan M; Atsumi, Shota

2018-04-01

The current global dependence on fossil fuels for both energy and chemical production has spurred concerns regarding long-term resource security and environmental detriments resulting from increased CO 2 levels. Through the installation of exogenous metabolic pathways, engineered cyanobacteria strains can directly fix CO 2 into industrially relevant chemicals currently produced from petroleum. This review highlights some of the studies that have successfully implemented photomixotrophic conditions to increase cyanobacterial chemical production. Supplementation with fixed carbon sources provides additional carbon building blocks and energy to enhance production and occasionally aid in growth. Photomixotrophic production has increased titers up to 5-fold over traditional autotrophic conditions, demonstrating promising applications for future commercialization. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

75 FR 33788 - Renewal of the Global Markets Advisory Committee

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-06-15

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A multi-model assessment of the co-benefits of climate mitigation for global air quality

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rao, Shilpa; Klimont, Zbigniew; Leitao, Joana

The recent International Panel on Climate change (IPCC) report identifies significant co-benefits from climate policies on near-term ambient air pollution and related human health outcomes [1]. This is increasingly relevant for policy making as the health impacts of air pollution are a major global concern- the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study identifies outdoor air pollution as the sixth major cause of death globally [2]. Integrated assessment models (IAMs) are an effective tool to evaluate future air pollution outcomes across a wide range of assumptions on socio-economic development and policy regimes. The Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) [3] were the firstmore » set of long-term global scenarios developed across multiple integrated assessment models that provided detailed estimates of a number of air pollutants until 2100. However these scenarios were primarily designed to cover a defined range of radiative forcing outcomes and thus did not specifically focus on the interactions of long-term climate goals on near-term air pollution impacts. More recently, [4] used the RCP4.5 scenario to evaluate the co-benefits of global GHG reductions on air quality and human health in 2030. [5-7] have further examined the interactions of more diverse pollution control regimes with climate policies. This paper extends the listed studies in a number of ways. Firstly it uses multiple IAMs to look into the co-benefits of a global climate policy for ambient air pollution under harmonized assumptions on near-term air pollution control. Multi-model frameworks have been extensively used in the analysis of climate change mitigation pathways, and the structural uncertainties regarding the underlying mechanisms (see for example [8-10]. This is to our knowledge the first time that a multi-model evaluation has been specifically designed and applied to analyze the co-benefits of climate change policy on ambient air quality, thus enabling a better understanding of at a detailed sector and region level. A second methodological advancement is a quantification of the co-benefits in terms of the associated atmospheric concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and consequent mortality related outcomes across different models. This is made possible by the use of state-of the art simplified atmospheric model that allows for the first time a computationally feasible multi-model evaluation of such outcomes.« less

Hydrological droughts in the 21st century, hotspots and uncertainties from a global multimodel ensemble experiment

PubMed Central

Prudhomme, Christel; Giuntoli, Ignazio; Robinson, Emma L.; Clark, Douglas B.; Arnell, Nigel W.; Dankers, Rutger; Fekete, Balázs M.; Franssen, Wietse; Gerten, Dieter; Gosling, Simon N.; Hagemann, Stefan; Hannah, David M.; Kim, Hyungjun; Masaki, Yoshimitsu; Satoh, Yusuke; Stacke, Tobias; Wada, Yoshihide; Wisser, Dominik

2014-01-01

Increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are expected to modify the global water cycle with significant consequences for terrestrial hydrology. We assess the impact of climate change on hydrological droughts in a multimodel experiment including seven global impact models (GIMs) driven by bias-corrected climate from five global climate models under four representative concentration pathways (RCPs). Drought severity is defined as the fraction of land under drought conditions. Results show a likely increase in the global severity of hydrological drought at the end of the 21st century, with systematically greater increases for RCPs describing stronger radiative forcings. Under RCP8.5, droughts exceeding 40% of analyzed land area are projected by nearly half of the simulations. This increase in drought severity has a strong signal-to-noise ratio at the global scale, and Southern Europe, the Middle East, the Southeast United States, Chile, and South West Australia are identified as possible hotspots for future water security issues. The uncertainty due to GIMs is greater than that from global climate models, particularly if including a GIM that accounts for the dynamic response of plants to CO2 and climate, as this model simulates little or no increase in drought frequency. Our study demonstrates that different representations of terrestrial water-cycle processes in GIMs are responsible for a much larger uncertainty in the response of hydrological drought to climate change than previously thought. When assessing the impact of climate change on hydrology, it is therefore critical to consider a diverse range of GIMs to better capture the uncertainty. PMID:24344266

Multimodel assessment of water scarcity under climate change.

PubMed

Schewe, Jacob; Heinke, Jens; Gerten, Dieter; Haddeland, Ingjerd; Arnell, Nigel W; Clark, Douglas B; Dankers, Rutger; Eisner, Stephanie; Fekete, Balázs M; Colón-González, Felipe J; Gosling, Simon N; Kim, Hyungjun; Liu, Xingcai; Masaki, Yoshimitsu; Portmann, Felix T; Satoh, Yusuke; Stacke, Tobias; Tang, Qiuhong; Wada, Yoshihide; Wisser, Dominik; Albrecht, Torsten; Frieler, Katja; Piontek, Franziska; Warszawski, Lila; Kabat, Pavel

2014-03-04

Water scarcity severely impairs food security and economic prosperity in many countries today. Expected future population changes will, in many countries as well as globally, increase the pressure on available water resources. On the supply side, renewable water resources will be affected by projected changes in precipitation patterns, temperature, and other climate variables. Here we use a large ensemble of global hydrological models (GHMs) forced by five global climate models and the latest greenhouse-gas concentration scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways) to synthesize the current knowledge about climate change impacts on water resources. We show that climate change is likely to exacerbate regional and global water scarcity considerably. In particular, the ensemble average projects that a global warming of 2 °C above present (approximately 2.7 °C above preindustrial) will confront an additional approximate 15% of the global population with a severe decrease in water resources and will increase the number of people living under absolute water scarcity (<500 m(3) per capita per year) by another 40% (according to some models, more than 100%) compared with the effect of population growth alone. For some indicators of moderate impacts, the steepest increase is seen between the present day and 2 °C, whereas indicators of very severe impacts increase unabated beyond 2 °C. At the same time, the study highlights large uncertainties associated with these estimates, with both global climate models and GHMs contributing to the spread. GHM uncertainty is particularly dominant in many regions affected by declining water resources, suggesting a high potential for improved water resource projections through hydrological model development.

Hydrological droughts in the 21st century, hotspots and uncertainties from a global multimodel ensemble experiment.

PubMed

Prudhomme, Christel; Giuntoli, Ignazio; Robinson, Emma L; Clark, Douglas B; Arnell, Nigel W; Dankers, Rutger; Fekete, Balázs M; Franssen, Wietse; Gerten, Dieter; Gosling, Simon N; Hagemann, Stefan; Hannah, David M; Kim, Hyungjun; Masaki, Yoshimitsu; Satoh, Yusuke; Stacke, Tobias; Wada, Yoshihide; Wisser, Dominik

2014-03-04

Increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are expected to modify the global water cycle with significant consequences for terrestrial hydrology. We assess the impact of climate change on hydrological droughts in a multimodel experiment including seven global impact models (GIMs) driven by bias-corrected climate from five global climate models under four representative concentration pathways (RCPs). Drought severity is defined as the fraction of land under drought conditions. Results show a likely increase in the global severity of hydrological drought at the end of the 21st century, with systematically greater increases for RCPs describing stronger radiative forcings. Under RCP8.5, droughts exceeding 40% of analyzed land area are projected by nearly half of the simulations. This increase in drought severity has a strong signal-to-noise ratio at the global scale, and Southern Europe, the Middle East, the Southeast United States, Chile, and South West Australia are identified as possible hotspots for future water security issues. The uncertainty due to GIMs is greater than that from global climate models, particularly if including a GIM that accounts for the dynamic response of plants to CO2 and climate, as this model simulates little or no increase in drought frequency. Our study demonstrates that different representations of terrestrial water-cycle processes in GIMs are responsible for a much larger uncertainty in the response of hydrological drought to climate change than previously thought. When assessing the impact of climate change on hydrology, it is therefore critical to consider a diverse range of GIMs to better capture the uncertainty.

Globalization and social determinants of health: Promoting health equity in global governance (part 3 of 3)

PubMed Central

Labonté, Ronald; Schrecker, Ted

2007-01-01

This article is the third in a three-part review of research on globalization and the social determinants of health (SDH). In the first article of the series, we identified and defended an economically oriented definition of globalization and addressed a number of important conceptual and metholodogical issues. In the second article, we identified and described seven key clusters of pathways relevant to globalization's influence on SDH. This discussion provided the basis for the premise from which we begin this article: interventions to reduce health inequities by way of SDH are inextricably linked with social protection, economic management and development strategy. Reflecting this insight, and against the background of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), we focus on the asymmetrical distribution of gains, losses and power that is characteristic of globalization in its current form and identify a number of areas for innovation on the part of the international community: making more resources available for health systems, as part of the more general task of expanding and improving development assistance; expanding debt relief and taking poverty reduction more seriously; reforming the international trade regime; considering the implications of health as a human right; and protecting the policy space available to national governments to address social determinants of health, notably with respect to the hypermobility of financial capital. We conclude by suggesting that responses to globalization's effects on social determinants of health can be classified with reference to two contrasting visions of the future, reflecting quite distinct values. PMID:17578570

Multimodel assessment of water scarcity under climate change

PubMed Central

Schewe, Jacob; Heinke, Jens; Gerten, Dieter; Haddeland, Ingjerd; Arnell, Nigel W.; Clark, Douglas B.; Dankers, Rutger; Eisner, Stephanie; Fekete, Balázs M.; Colón-González, Felipe J.; Gosling, Simon N.; Kim, Hyungjun; Liu, Xingcai; Masaki, Yoshimitsu; Portmann, Felix T.; Satoh, Yusuke; Stacke, Tobias; Tang, Qiuhong; Wada, Yoshihide; Wisser, Dominik; Albrecht, Torsten; Frieler, Katja; Piontek, Franziska; Warszawski, Lila; Kabat, Pavel

2014-01-01

Water scarcity severely impairs food security and economic prosperity in many countries today. Expected future population changes will, in many countries as well as globally, increase the pressure on available water resources. On the supply side, renewable water resources will be affected by projected changes in precipitation patterns, temperature, and other climate variables. Here we use a large ensemble of global hydrological models (GHMs) forced by five global climate models and the latest greenhouse-gas concentration scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways) to synthesize the current knowledge about climate change impacts on water resources. We show that climate change is likely to exacerbate regional and global water scarcity considerably. In particular, the ensemble average projects that a global warming of 2 °C above present (approximately 2.7 °C above preindustrial) will confront an additional approximate 15% of the global population with a severe decrease in water resources and will increase the number of people living under absolute water scarcity (<500 m3 per capita per year) by another 40% (according to some models, more than 100%) compared with the effect of population growth alone. For some indicators of moderate impacts, the steepest increase is seen between the present day and 2 °C, whereas indicators of very severe impacts increase unabated beyond 2 °C. At the same time, the study highlights large uncertainties associated with these estimates, with both global climate models and GHMs contributing to the spread. GHM uncertainty is particularly dominant in many regions affected by declining water resources, suggesting a high potential for improved water resource projections through hydrological model development. PMID:24344289

Sea ice decline and 21st century trans-Arctic shipping routes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Melia, N.; Haines, K.; Hawkins, E.

2016-09-01

The observed decline in Arctic sea ice is projected to continue, opening shorter trade routes across the Arctic Ocean, with potentially global economic implications. Here we quantify, using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 global climate model simulations calibrated to remove spatial biases, how projected sea ice loss might increase opportunities for Arctic transit shipping. By midcentury for standard open water vessels, the frequency of navigable periods doubles, with routes across the central Arctic becoming available. A sea ice-ship speed relationship is used to show that European routes to Asia typically become 10 days faster via the Arctic than alternatives by midcentury, and 13 days faster by late century, while North American routes become 4 days faster. Future greenhouse gas emissions have a larger impact by late century; the shipping season reaching 4-8 months in Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP)8.5 double that of RCP2.6, both with substantial interannual variability. Moderately, ice-strengthened vessels likely enable Arctic transits for 10-12 months by late century.

Towards a New Food System Assessment: AgMIP Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments of Climate Change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rosenzweig, Cynthia E.; Thorburn, Peter

2017-01-01

Agricultural stakeholders need more credible information on which to base adaptation and mitigation policy decisions. In order to provide this, we must improve the rigor of agricultural modelling. Ensemble approaches can be used to address scale issues and integrated teams can overcome disciplinary silos. The AgMIP Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments of Climate Change and Food Security (CGRA) has the goal to link agricultural systems models using common protocols and scenarios to significantly improve understanding of climate effects on crops, livestock and livelihoods across multiple scales. The AgMIP CGRA assessment brings together experts in climate, crop, livestock, economics, and food security to develop Protocols to guide the process throughout the assessment. Scenarios are designed to consistently combine elements of intertwined storylines of future society including, socioeconomic development, greenhouse gas concentrations, and specific pathways of agricultural sector development. Through these approaches, AgMIP partners around the world are providing an evidence base for their stakeholders as they make decisions and investments.

Clouds enhance Greenland ice sheet meltwater runoff.

PubMed

Van Tricht, K; Lhermitte, S; Lenaerts, J T M; Gorodetskaya, I V; L'Ecuyer, T S; Noël, B; van den Broeke, M R; Turner, D D; van Lipzig, N P M

2016-01-12

The Greenland ice sheet has become one of the main contributors to global sea level rise, predominantly through increased meltwater runoff. The main drivers of Greenland ice sheet runoff, however, remain poorly understood. Here we show that clouds enhance meltwater runoff by about one-third relative to clear skies, using a unique combination of active satellite observations, climate model data and snow model simulations. This impact results from a cloud radiative effect of 29.5 (±5.2) W m(-2). Contrary to conventional wisdom, however, the Greenland ice sheet responds to this energy through a new pathway by which clouds reduce meltwater refreezing as opposed to increasing surface melt directly, thereby accelerating bare-ice exposure and enhancing meltwater runoff. The high sensitivity of the Greenland ice sheet to both ice-only and liquid-bearing clouds highlights the need for accurate cloud representations in climate models, to better predict future contributions of the Greenland ice sheet to global sea level rise.

Forced sexual initiation, sexual intimate partner violence and HIV risk in women: A global review of the literature

PubMed Central

Stockman, Jamila K.; Lucea, Marguerite B.; Campbell, Jacquelyn C.

2012-01-01

Coerced or forced sexual initiation and sexual intimate partner violence (sexual IPV) contribute significantly to a woman’s risk for HIV infection. This review systematically examines global research (n=21 studies) published since 2000 on the role of coerced/forced sexual initiation and sexual IPV on HIV risk in women. In predominantly low- and middle-income countries, coerced/forced sexual initiation was associated with HIV/STIs, multiple and high-risk sex partners, and no condom use. Most studies using behaviorally specific terms for sexual IPV found strong associations between sexual IPV and HIV risk behaviors. In contrast, studies using less specific definitions often failed to find these significant associations. To develop more comprehensive HIV prevention programs, future efforts should integrate behaviorally specific terms into assessing prevalence of sexual IPV and its association with HIV risk, consider cultural differences, and identify causal pathways between coerced or forced sexual initiation, HIV risk behaviors and HIV/STI infection. PMID:23143750

Clouds enhance Greenland ice sheet meltwater runoff

PubMed Central

Van Tricht, K.; Lhermitte, S.; Lenaerts, J. T. M.; Gorodetskaya, I. V.; L'Ecuyer, T. S.; Noël, B.; van den Broeke, M. R.; Turner, D. D.; van Lipzig, N. P. M.

2016-01-01

The Greenland ice sheet has become one of the main contributors to global sea level rise, predominantly through increased meltwater runoff. The main drivers of Greenland ice sheet runoff, however, remain poorly understood. Here we show that clouds enhance meltwater runoff by about one-third relative to clear skies, using a unique combination of active satellite observations, climate model data and snow model simulations. This impact results from a cloud radiative effect of 29.5 (±5.2) W m−2. Contrary to conventional wisdom, however, the Greenland ice sheet responds to this energy through a new pathway by which clouds reduce meltwater refreezing as opposed to increasing surface melt directly, thereby accelerating bare-ice exposure and enhancing meltwater runoff. The high sensitivity of the Greenland ice sheet to both ice-only and liquid-bearing clouds highlights the need for accurate cloud representations in climate models, to better predict future contributions of the Greenland ice sheet to global sea level rise. PMID:26756470

Advance strategy for climate change adaptation and mitigation in cities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Varquez, A. C. G.; Kanda, M.; Darmanto, N. S.; Sueishi, T.; Kawano, N.

2017-12-01

An on-going 5-yr project financially supported by the Ministry of Environment, Japan, has been carried out to specifically address the issue of prescribing appropriate adaptation and mitigation measures to climate change in cities. Entitled "Case Study on Mitigation and Local Adaptation to Climate Change in an Asian Megacity, Jakarta", the project's relevant objectives is to develop a research framework that can consider both urbanization and climate change with the main advantage of being readily implementable for all cities around the world. The test location is the benchmark city, Jakarta, Indonesia, with the end focus of evaluating the benefits of various mitigation and adaptation strategies in Jakarta and other megacities. The framework was designed to improve representation of urban areas when conducting climate change investigations in cities; and to be able to quantify separately the impacts of urbanization and climate change to all cities globally. It is comprised of a sophisticated, top-down, multi-downscaling approach utilizing a regional model (numerical weather model) and a microscale model (energy balance model and CFD model), with global circulation models (GCM) as input. The models, except the GCM, were configured to reasonably consider land cover, urban morphology, and anthropogenic heating (AH). Equally as important, methodologies that can collect and estimate global distribution of urban parametric and AH datasets are continually being developed. Urban growth models, climate scenario matrices that match representative concentration pathways with shared socio-economic pathways, present distribution of socio-demographic indicators such as population and GDP, existing GIS datasets of urban parameters, are utilized. From these tools, future urbanization (urban morphological parameters and AH) can be introduced into the models. Sensitivity using various combinations of GCM and urbanization can be conducted. Furthermore, since the models utilize parameters that can be readily modified to suit certain countermeasures, adaptation and mitigation strategies can be evaluated using thermal comfort and other social indicators. With the approaches introduced through this project, a deeper understanding of urban-climate interactions in the changing global climate can be achieved.

Increasing leaf temperature reduces the suppression of isoprene emission by elevated CO₂ concentration.

PubMed

Potosnak, Mark J; Lestourgeon, Lauren; Nunez, Othon

2014-05-15

Including algorithms to account for the suppression of isoprene emission by elevated CO2 concentration affects estimates of global isoprene emission for future climate change scenarios. In this study, leaf-level measurements of isoprene emission were made to determine the short-term interactive effect of leaf temperature and CO2 concentration. For both greenhouse plants and plants grown under field conditions, the suppression of isoprene emission was reduced by increasing leaf temperature. For each of the four different tree species investigated, aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx.), cottonwood (Populus deltoides W. Bartram ex Marshall), red oak (Quercus rubra L.), and tundra dwarf willow (Salix pulchra Cham.), the suppression of isoprene by elevated CO2 was eliminated at increased temperature, and the maximum temperature where suppression was observed ranged from 25 to 35°C. Hypotheses proposed to explain the short-term suppression of isoprene emission by increased CO2 concentration were tested against this observation. Hypotheses related to cofactors in the methylerythritol phosphate (MEP) pathway were consistent with reduced suppression at elevated leaf temperature. Also, reduced solubility of CO2 with increased temperature can explain the reduced suppression for the phosphoenolpyruvate (PEP) carboxylase competition hypothesis. Some global models of isoprene emission include the short-term suppression effect, and should be modified to include the observed interaction. If these results are consistent at longer timescales, there are implications for predicting future global isoprene emission budgets and the reduced suppression at increased temperature could explain some of the variable responses observed in long-term CO2 exposure experiments. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

What is the difference between a 2, 3, 4, or 5 °C world and how good are we at telling this difference? Results from ISI-MIP the first Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frieler, K.; Huber, V.; Piontek, F.; Schewe, J.; Serdeczny, O.; Warszawski, L.

2012-12-01

The Inter-sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP) aims to synthesize the state-of-the-art knowledge of climate change impacts at different levels of global warming. Over 25 climate impact modelling teams from around the world, working within the agriculture, water, biomes, infrastructure and health sectors, are collaborating to find answers to the question "What is the difference between a 2, 3, 4, or 5 °C world and how good are we at telling this difference?". The analysis is based on common, bias-corrected climate projections, and socio-economic pathways. The first, fast-tracked phase of the ISI-MIP has a focus on global impact models. The project's experimental design is formulated to distinguish the uncertainty introduced by the impact models themselves, from the inherent uncertainty in the climate projections and the variety of plausible socio-economic futures. Novel metrics, developed to emphasize societal impacts, will be used to identify regional 'hot-spots' of climate change impacts, as well as to quantify the cross-sectoral impact of the increasing frequency of extreme events in future climates. We present here first results from the Fast-Track phase of the project covering impact simulations in the biomes, agriculture and water sectors, in which the societal impacts of climate change are quantified for different levels of global warming. We also discuss the design of the scenario set-up and impact indicators chosen to suit the unique cross-sectoral, multi-model nature of the project.

A Global Look at Future Trends in the Renewable Energy Resource

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, S.; Freedman, J. M.; Kirk-Davidoff, D. B.; Brower, M.

2017-12-01

With the aggressive deployment of utility-scale and distributed generation of wind and solar energy systems, an accurate estimate of the uncertainty associated with future resource trends and plant performance is crucial in maintaining financial integrity in the renewable energy markets. With continuing concerns regarding climate change, the move towards energy resiliency, and the cost-competitiveness of renewables, a rapidly expanding fleet of utility-scale wind and solar power facilities and distributed generation of both resources is now being incorporated into the electric distribution grid. Although solar and wind account for about 3% of global power production, renewable energy is now and will continue to be the world's fastest-growing energy source. With deeper penetration of renewables, confidence in future power production output on a spectrum of temporal and spatial scales is crucial to grid stability for long-term planning and achieving national and international targets in the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. Here, we use output from a diverse subset of Earth System Models (Climate Model Inter-comparison Project-Phase 5 members) to produce projected trends and uncertainties in regional and global seasonal and inter-annual wind and solar power production and respective capacity factors through the end of the 21st century. Our trends and uncertainty analysis focuses on the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. For wind and solar energy production estimates, we extract surface layer wind (extrapolated to hub height), irradiance, cloud fraction, and temperature (air temperature affects density [hence wind power production] and the efficiency of photovoltaic [PV] systems), output from the CMIP5 ensemble mean fields for the period 2020 - 2099 and an historical baseline for POR of 1986 - 2005 (compared with long-term observations and the ERA-Interim Reanalysis). Results include representative statistics such as the standard deviation (as determined from the slopes of the trend lines for individual CMIP5 members), means, medians (e.g. P50 values) and percent change, trends analysis on time series for each variable, and creation of global maps of trends (% change per year) and changes in capacity factors for both estimated solar and wind power production.

Coordinated Development and Deployment of Scenarios for Sustained Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lipschultz, F.; Weaver, C. P.; Leidner, A. K.; Delgado, A.; Grambsch, A.

2017-12-01

There has been a clear need for a more coordinated Federal government approach for authoritative, climate-relevant scenarios to support growing demands by decision-makers, to meet stakeholder needs for consistent approaches and guidance, and to better address the needs of the impacts, adaptation and vulnerability community. To begin to satisfy these decision-support needs, in early 2015 the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) began coordinated production of scenario information for use across a suite of USGCRP activities. These have been implemented in the 4th National Climate Assessment (NCA4), the Climate Science Special Report and the Climate Resilience Toolkit (CRT), all of which are intended to help better organize, summarize, and communicate science to decision-makers as they think about our future. First, USGCRP introduced and implemented an explicit risk-framing approach across the entire scenario enterprise to encourage exploration of tail risks. A suite of scenario products was developed framed around three simplified storylines: `Lower', `Higher', and `Upper Bound' departures from current baselines. Second, USGCRP developed future climate information for the U.S. using Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 and RCP 4.5, including a weighted mean of Global Climate Models and adoption of an improved statistical downscaling approach across USGCRP products. Additional variables were derived from the downscaled parameters for use across USGCRP reports and in the CRT's Climate Explorer tool. Third, and given the need to address other tightly-coupled global changes in a more integrated way, a set of population, housing density, and impervious surface projections were developed based on global scenarios. In addition, USGCRP and the National Ocean Council developed scenarios of future sea-level rise and coastal-flood hazard for the U.S. and integrated them into existing Federal capabilities to support preparedness planning. To better convey these scenario components, next steps include capability for dynamic interaction between NCA4 products and CRT to permit users to explore and customize relevant information for their decision at spatial scales that matter to them, as well as links to more in-depth CRT content.

Evaluating the impact of climate policies on regional food availability and accessibility using an Integrated Assessment Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gilmore, E.; Cui, Y. R.; Waldhoff, S.

2015-12-01

Beyond 2015, eradicating hunger will remain a critical part of the global development agenda through the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG). Efforts to limit climate change through both mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions and land use policies may interact with food availability and accessibility in complex and unanticipated ways. Here, we develop projections of regional food accessibility to 2050 under the alternative futures outlined by the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and under different climate policy targets and structures. We use the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), an integrated assessment model (IAM), for our projections. We calculate food access as the weighted average of consumption of five staples and the portion of income spend on those commodities and extend the GCAM calculated universal global producer price to regional consumer prices drawing on historical relationships of these prices. Along the SSPs, food access depends largely on expectations of increases in population and economic status. Under a more optimistic scenario, the pressures on food access from increasing demand and rising prices can be counterbalanced by faster economic development. Stringent climate policies that increase commodity prices, however, may hinder vulnerable regions, namely Sub-Saharan Africa, from achieving greater food accessibility.

Mercury in Children: Current State on Exposure through Human Biomonitoring Studies

PubMed Central

Ruggieri, Flavia; Majorani, Costanza; Domanico, Francesco; Alimonti, Alessandro

2017-01-01

Mercury (Hg) in children has multiple exposure sources and the toxicity of Hg compounds depends on exposure routes, dose, timing of exposure, and developmental stage (be it prenatal or postnatal). Over the last decades, Hg was widely recognized as a threat to the children’s health and there have been acknowledgements at the international level of the need of a global policy intervention—like the Minamata treaty—aimed at reducing or preventing Hg exposure and protecting the child health. National human biomonitoring (HBM) data has demonstrated that low levels of exposure of Hg are still an important health concern for children, which no one country can solve alone. Although independent HBM surveys have provided the basis for the achievements of exposure mitigation in specific contexts, a new paradigm for a coordinated global monitoring of children’s exposure, aimed at a reliable decision-making tool at global level is yet a great challenge for the next future. The objective of the present review is to describe current HBM studies on Hg exposure in children, taking into account the potential pathways of Hg exposure and the actual Hg exposure levels assessed by different biomarkers. PMID:28498344

From the Northern Eurasia Earth Science Partnership Initiative to the Northern Eurasia Future Initiative

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Streletskiy, D. A.; Groisman, P. Y.; Shugart, H. H., Jr.; Gulev, S.; Maksyutov, S. S.; Qi, J.

2017-12-01

Since 2004, the Northern Eurasia Earth Science Partnership Initiative (NEESPI) - an interdisciplinary program of internationally-supported Earth systems and science research - has addressed large-scale and long-term manifestations of climate and environmental changes over Northern Eurasia and their impact on the Global Earth system. With 40 books and more than 1500 peer-reviewed journal publications to its credit, NEESPI's output can now be used to directly support decision-making for societal needs. Specifically, it was decided to shift gradually the foci of regional studies in Northern Eurasia towards applications with the following major Science Question: "What dynamic and interactive change(s) will affect societal well-being, activities, and health, and what might be the mitigation and adaptation strategies that could support sustainable development and decision-making activities in Northern Eurasia?" To answer this question requires a stronger socio-economic component in the ongoing and future regional studies focused on sustainable societal development under changing climatic and environmental conditions. The NEESPI Research Team has reorganized itself into "Northern Eurasia Future Initiative" (NEFI) and developed a new Science Plan released in June 2016. The Plan underwent a 6-month-long public review and was finalized at the end of 2016. Its description was thereafter split between two review papers: Groisman et al. (2017) and Monier et al. (2017). The first paper describes the Plan rationale and a new set of topical questions. The second paper describes a major modeling approach that will be employed in addressing the "what to do" questions of the NEFI Research (cf., presentation by Monier et al. at this Session). In the current presentation, we outline the new NEFI research foci and present latest NEFI findings including international projects in the Eurasian Arctic, boreal zone, and the Dry Land Belt of Northern Eurasia (cf., also presentations at sister-Session GC027). References:Groisman, P.Y. et al. 2017: Northern Eurasia Future Initiative (NEFI): Facing the Challenges and Pathways of Global Change in the 21st Century. Progress Earth and Planet Sci in review.Monier, E., et al: 2017: A Review of and Perspectives on Global Change Modeling for Northern Eurasia. Enviro. Res Lett in press.

Future Earth, Global Science and Regional Programs: Building regional integrated science capacities in a global science organization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tewksbury, J.

2016-12-01

Future Earth has emerged from the more than 30-year history of Global Change Research Programs, including IGBP, DIVERSITAS and IHDP. These programs supported interdisciplinary science in service of societies around the world. Now, their focus on building a greater understanding of changing Earth systems and their couplings with society has passed to Future Earth - with an important addition: Future Earth was also established to focus global change efforts around key societal challenges. The implications for the structure of Future Earth are large. Many challenges within topics, such as the water, energy, food nexus or the future of cities, are manifested within local, national, and regional contexts. How should we organize globally to most effectively confront these multi-scale challenges? The solution proposed in the framing of Future Earth was the formation of regional as well as national committees, as well as the formation of regional centers and offices. Regional Committees serve to both advocate for Future Earth in their regions and to advocate for regional interests in the global Future Earth platform, while regional Centers and offices are built into the Future Earth secretariat to perform a parallel regional implementation function. Implementation has not been easy, and the process has placed regionally-focused projects in an awkward place. Programs such as the Monsoon Asia Integrated Regional Study (MAIRS), the Northern Eurasia Earth Science Partnership Initiative (NEESPI), and the South/Southeast Asia Research Initiative (SARI) represent some of the best global change communities in the world, but by design, their focus is regional. The effective integration of these communities into the Future Earth architecture will be critical, and this integration will require the formation of strong regional committees and regional centers.

From global to regional and back again: common climate stressors of marine ecosystems relevant for adaptation across five ocean warming hotspots.

PubMed

Popova, Ekaterina; Yool, Andrew; Byfield, Valborg; Cochrane, Kevern; Coward, Andrew C; Salim, Shyam S; Gasalla, Maria A; Henson, Stephanie A; Hobday, Alistair J; Pecl, Gretta T; Sauer, Warwick H; Roberts, Michael J

2016-06-01

Ocean warming 'hotspots' are regions characterized by above-average temperature increases over recent years, for which there are significant consequences for both living marine resources and the societies that depend on them. As such, they represent early warning systems for understanding the impacts of marine climate change, and test-beds for developing adaptation options for coping with those impacts. Here, we examine five hotspots off the coasts of eastern Australia, South Africa, Madagascar, India and Brazil. These particular hotspots have underpinned a large international partnership that is working towards improving community adaptation by characterizing, assessing and projecting the likely future of coastal-marine food resources through the provision and sharing of knowledge. To inform this effort, we employ a high-resolution global ocean model forced by Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and simulated to year 2099. In addition to the sea surface temperature, we analyse projected stratification, nutrient supply, primary production, anthropogenic CO2 -driven ocean acidification, deoxygenation and ocean circulation. Our simulation finds that the temperature-defined hotspots studied here will continue to experience warming but, with the exception of eastern Australia, may not remain the fastest warming ocean areas over the next century as the strongest warming is projected to occur in the subpolar and polar areas of the Northern Hemisphere. Additionally, we find that recent rapid change in SST is not necessarily an indicator that these areas are also hotspots of the other climatic stressors examined. However, a consistent facet of the hotspots studied here is that they are all strongly influenced by ocean circulation, which has already shown changes in the recent past and is projected to undergo further strong change into the future. In addition to the fast warming, change in local ocean circulation represents a distinct feature of present and future climate change impacting marine ecosystems in these areas. © 2016 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Designing connected marine reserves in the face of global warming.

PubMed

Álvarez-Romero, Jorge G; Munguía-Vega, Adrián; Beger, Maria; Del Mar Mancha-Cisneros, Maria; Suárez-Castillo, Alvin N; Gurney, Georgina G; Pressey, Robert L; Gerber, Leah R; Morzaria-Luna, Hem Nalini; Reyes-Bonilla, Héctor; Adams, Vanessa M; Kolb, Melanie; Graham, Erin M; VanDerWal, Jeremy; Castillo-López, Alejandro; Hinojosa-Arango, Gustavo; Petatán-Ramírez, David; Moreno-Baez, Marcia; Godínez-Reyes, Carlos R; Torre, Jorge

2018-02-01

Marine reserves are widely used to protect species important for conservation and fisheries and to help maintain ecological processes that sustain their populations, including recruitment and dispersal. Achieving these goals requires well-connected networks of marine reserves that maximize larval connectivity, thus allowing exchanges between populations and recolonization after local disturbances. However, global warming can disrupt connectivity by shortening potential dispersal pathways through changes in larval physiology. These changes can compromise the performance of marine reserve networks, thus requiring adjusting their design to account for ocean warming. To date, empirical approaches to marine prioritization have not considered larval connectivity as affected by global warming. Here, we develop a framework for designing marine reserve networks that integrates graph theory and changes in larval connectivity due to potential reductions in planktonic larval duration (PLD) associated with ocean warming, given current socioeconomic constraints. Using the Gulf of California as case study, we assess the benefits and costs of adjusting networks to account for connectivity, with and without ocean warming. We compare reserve networks designed to achieve representation of species and ecosystems with networks designed to also maximize connectivity under current and future ocean-warming scenarios. Our results indicate that current larval connectivity could be reduced significantly under ocean warming because of shortened PLDs. Given the potential changes in connectivity, we show that our graph-theoretical approach based on centrality (eigenvector and distance-weighted fragmentation) of habitat patches can help design better-connected marine reserve networks for the future with equivalent costs. We found that maintaining dispersal connectivity incidentally through representation-only reserve design is unlikely, particularly in regions with strong asymmetric patterns of dispersal connectivity. Our results support previous studies suggesting that, given potential reductions in PLD due to ocean warming, future marine reserve networks would require more and/or larger reserves in closer proximity to maintain larval connectivity. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Statistical downscaling of rainfall under transitional climate in Limbang River Basin by using SDSM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tahir, T.; Hashim, A. M.; Yusof, K. W.

2018-04-01

Climate change is a global phenomenon that has affected hundreds of people around the globe. In transitional climatic patterns, it is essential to compute the severity of rainfall in the regions prone to hydro-meteorological disasters. Therefore, the main aim of this study is to assess the severity of rainfall under three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) from Global Climate Model data of CanESM2 in Limbang River basin. Furthermore, the objective is to check the capability of Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) in the tropical region. The historical data of nine weather stations were used for the period of 30 years (1976 - 2005) and Global Climate Model data of CanESM2 under RCPs of RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 for the period of 2071-2100. The model was calibrated for the period of 1976-1995 and validated for the period of 1996-2005. After successful calibration and validation of SDSM, the future rainfall was simulated separately for all the three scenarios of RCPs. The obtained results have shown the values of R2 and RMSE for the model calibration and validation ranged between 0.58 – 0.86 and between 1.49 and 4.7, respectively for all stations. The obtained future rainfall data from 2071 – 2100 was then compared with the base period rainfall from 1976 - 2005. It was shown that under RCP2.6 scenario there will be an increase of 8.13%, while 14.7% rise in the RCP4.5 scenario during the period of 2071- 2100. An abrupt increase of about 40.6% was observed under the robust scenario of RCP8.5. Therefore, it is concluded that future pattern of rainfall in Limbang River basin under all the scenarios is constantly increasing due to the climate change.

Precipitation in the Karakoram-Himalaya: a CMIP5 view

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palazzi, Elisa; von Hardenberg, Jost; Terzago, Silvia; Provenzale, Antonello

2015-07-01

This work analyzes the properties of precipitation in the Hindu-Kush Karakoram Himalaya region as simulated by thirty-two state-of-the-art global climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). We separately consider the Hindu-Kush Karakoram (HKK) in the west and the Himalaya in the east. These two regions are characterized by different precipitation climatologies, which are associated with different circulation patterns. Historical model simulations are compared with the Climate Research Unit (CRU) and Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) precipitation data in the period 1901-2005. Future precipitation is analyzed for the two representative concentration pathways (RCP) RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. We find that the multi-model ensemble mean and most individual models exhibit a wet bias with respect to CRU and GPCC observations in both regions and for all seasons. The models differ greatly in the seasonal climatology of precipitation which they reproduce in the HKK. The CMIP5 models predict wetter future conditions in the Himalaya in summer, with a gradual precipitation increase throughout the 21st century. Wetter summer future conditions are also predicted by most models in the RCP 8.5 scenario for the HKK, while on average no significant change can be detected in winter precipitation for both regions. In general, no single model (or group of models) emerges as that providing the best results for all the statistics considered, and the large spread in the behavior of individual models suggests to consider multi-model ensemble means with extreme care.

Influence of internal variability on population exposure to hydroclimatic changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mankin, Justin S.; Viviroli, Daniel; Mekonnen, Mesfin M.; Hoekstra, Arjen Y.; Horton, Radley M.; E Smerdon, Jason; Diffenbaugh, Noah S.

2017-04-01

Future freshwater supply, human water demand, and people’s exposure to water stress are subject to multiple sources of uncertainty, including unknown future pathways of fossil fuel and water consumption, and ‘irreducible’ uncertainty arising from internal climate system variability. Such internal variability can conceal forced hydroclimatic changes on multi-decadal timescales and near-continental spatial-scales. Using three projections of population growth, a large ensemble from a single Earth system model, and assuming stationary per capita water consumption, we quantify the likelihoods of future population exposure to increased hydroclimatic deficits, which we define as the average duration and magnitude by which evapotranspiration exceeds precipitation in a basin. We calculate that by 2060, ∽31%-35% of the global population will be exposed to >50% probability of hydroclimatic deficit increases that exceed existing hydrological storage, with up to 9% of people exposed to >90% probability. However, internal variability, which is an irreducible uncertainty in climate model predictions that is under-sampled in water resource projections, creates substantial uncertainty in predicted exposure: ∽86%-91% of people will reside where irreducible uncertainty spans the potential for both increases and decreases in sub-annual water deficits. In one population scenario, changes in exposure to large hydroclimate deficits vary from -3% to +6% of global population, a range arising entirely from internal variability. The uncertainty in risk arising from irreducible uncertainty in the precise pattern of hydroclimatic change, which is typically conflated with other uncertainties in projections, is critical for climate risk management that seeks to optimize adaptations that are robust to the full set of potential real-world outcomes.

Projections of global health outcomes from 2005 to 2060 using the International Futures integrated forecasting model

PubMed Central

Hughes, Barry B; Peterson, Cecilia M; Rothman, Dale S; Solórzano, José R; Mathers, Colin D; Dickson, Janet R

2011-01-01

Abstract Objective To develop an integrated health forecasting model as part of the International Futures (IFs) modelling system. Methods The IFs model begins with the historical relationships between economic and social development and cause-specific mortality used by the Global Burden of Disease project but builds forecasts from endogenous projections of these drivers by incorporating forward linkages from health outcomes back to inputs like population and economic growth. The hybrid IFs system adds alternative structural formulations for causes not well served by regression models and accounts for changes in proximate health risk factors. Forecasts are made to 2100 but findings are reported to 2060. Findings The base model projects that deaths from communicable diseases (CDs) will decline by 50%, whereas deaths from both non-communicable diseases (NCDs) and injuries will more than double. Considerable cross-national convergence in life expectancy will occur. Climate-induced fluctuations in agricultural yield will cause little excess childhood mortality from CDs, although other climate−health pathways were not explored. An optimistic scenario will produce 39 million fewer deaths in 2060 than a pessimistic one. Our forward linkage model suggests that an optimistic scenario would result in a 20% per cent increase in gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, despite one billion additional people. Southern Asia would experience the greatest relative mortality reduction and the largest resulting benefit in per capita GDP. Conclusion Long-term, integrated health forecasting helps us understand the links between health and other markers of human progress and offers powerful insight into key points of leverage for future improvements. PMID:21734761

Projections of global health outcomes from 2005 to 2060 using the International Futures integrated forecasting model.

PubMed

Hughes, Barry B; Kuhn, Randall; Peterson, Cecilia M; Rothman, Dale S; Solórzano, José R; Mathers, Colin D; Dickson, Janet R

2011-07-01

To develop an integrated health forecasting model as part of the International Futures (IFs) modelling system. The IFs model begins with the historical relationships between economic and social development and cause-specific mortality used by the Global Burden of Disease project but builds forecasts from endogenous projections of these drivers by incorporating forward linkages from health outcomes back to inputs like population and economic growth. The hybrid IFs system adds alternative structural formulations for causes not well served by regression models and accounts for changes in proximate health risk factors. Forecasts are made to 2100 but findings are reported to 2060. The base model projects that deaths from communicable diseases (CDs) will decline by 50%, whereas deaths from both non-communicable diseases (NCDs) and injuries will more than double. Considerable cross-national convergence in life expectancy will occur. Climate-induced fluctuations in agricultural yield will cause little excess childhood mortality from CDs, although other climate-health pathways were not explored. An optimistic scenario will produce 39 million fewer deaths in 2060 than a pessimistic one. Our forward linkage model suggests that an optimistic scenario would result in a 20% per cent increase in gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, despite one billion additional people. Southern Asia would experience the greatest relative mortality reduction and the largest resulting benefit in per capita GDP. Long-term, integrated health forecasting helps us understand the links between health and other markers of human progress and offers powerful insight into key points of leverage for future improvements.

Neuroproteomics approach and neurosystems biology analysis: ROCK inhibitors as promising therapeutic targets in neurodegeneration and neurotrauma.

PubMed

Raad, Mohamad; El Tal, Tala; Gul, Rukhsana; Mondello, Stefania; Zhang, Zhiqun; Boustany, Rose-Mary; Guingab, Joy; Wang, Kevin K; Kobeissy, Firas

2012-12-01

Several common degenerative mechanisms and mediators underlying the neuronal injury pathways characterize several neurodegenerative diseases including Alzheimer's, Parkinson's, and Huntington's disease, as well as brain neurotrauma. Such common ground invites the emergence of new approaches and tools to study the altered pathways involved in neural injury alongside with neuritogenesis, an intricate process that commences with neuronal differentiation. Achieving a greater understanding of the impaired pathways of neuritogenesis would significantly help in uncovering detailed mechanisms of axonal regeneration. Among the several agents involved in neuritogenesis are the Rho and Rho kinases (ROCKs), which constitute key integral points in the Rho/ROCK pathway that is known to be disrupted in multiple neuropathologies such as spinal cord injury, traumatic brain injury, and Alzheimer's disease. This in turn renders ROCK inhibition as a promising candidate for therapeutic targets for treatment of neurodegenerative diseases. Among the novel tools to investigate the mechanisms involved in a specific disorder is the use of neuroproteomics/systems biology approach, a growing subfield of bioinformatics aiming to study and establishing a global assessment of the entire neuronal proteome, addressing the dynamic protein changes and interactions. This review aims to examine recent updates regarding how neuroproteomics aids in the understanding of molecular mechanisms of activation and inhibition in the area of neurogenesis and how Rho/ROCK pathway/ROCK inhibitors, primarily Y-27632 and Fasudil compounds, are applied in biological settings, promoting neuronal survival and neuroprotection that has direct future implications in neurotrauma. © 2012 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Integrated RNA-seq and sRNA-seq analysis reveals miRNA effects on secondary metabolism in Solanum tuberosum L.

PubMed

Qiao, Yan; Zhang, Jinjin; Zhang, Jinwen; Wang, Zhiwei; Ran, An; Guo, Haixia; Wang, Di; Zhang, Junlian

2017-02-01

Light is a major environmental factor that affects metabolic pathways and stimulates the production of secondary metabolites in potato. However, adaptive changes in potato metabolic pathways and physiological functions triggered by light are partly explained by gene expression changes. Regulation of secondary metabolic pathways in potato has been extensively studied at transcriptional level, but little is known about the mechanisms of post-transcriptional regulation by miRNAs. To identify light-responsive miRNAs/mRNAs and construct putative metabolism pathways regulated by the miRNA-mRNA pairs, an integrated omics (sRNAome and transcriptome) analysis was performed to potato under light stimulus. A total of 31 and 48 miRNAs were identified to be differentially expressed in the leaves and tubers, respectively. Among the DEGs, 1353 genes in the leaves and 1841 genes in the tubers were upregulated, while 1595 genes in the leaves and 897 genes in the tubers were downregulated by light. Mapman enrichment analyses showed that genes related to MVA pathway, alkaloids-like, phenylpropanoids, flavonoids, and carotenoids metabolism were significantly upregulated, while genes associated with major CHO metabolism were repressed in the leaves and tubers. Integrated miRNA and mRNA profiles revealed that light-responsive miRNAs are important regulators in alkaloids metabolism, UMP salvage, lipid biosynthesis, and cellulose catabolism. Moreover, several miRNAs may participate in glycoalkaloids metabolism via JA signaling pathway, UDP-glucose biosynthesis and hydroxylation reaction. This study provides a global view of miRNA and mRNA expression profiles in potato response to light, our results suggest that miRNAs might play important roles in secondary metabolic pathways, especially in glycoalkaloid biosynthesis. The findings will enlighten us on the genetic regulation of secondary metabolite pathways and pave the way for future application of genetically engineered potato.

75 FR 56997 - Global Markets Advisory Committee

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-09-17

... COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION Global Markets Advisory Committee AGENCY: Commodity Futures Trading Commission (``CFTC''). ACTION: Notice of meeting of Global Markets Advisory Committee. SUMMARY: The Global Markets Advisory Committee will hold a public meeting on October 5, 2010, from 1 p.m. to 5...

Destruction of white matter integrity in patients with mild cognitive impairment and Alzheimer disease.

PubMed

Sun, Xiaoyan; Salat, David; Upchurch, Kristen; Deason, Rebecca; Kowall, Neil; Budson, Andrew

2014-10-01

Accumulating evidence shows that gradual loss of white matter integrity plays an important role in the development of Alzheimer disease (AD). The aim of this research was to study the microstructural integrity of white matter in AD in vivo. Global fractional anisotropy, global axial diffusivity (AxD), and global radial diffusivity (RD) were analyzed in subjects with normal controls (NC), mild cognitive impairment (MCI), and AD using Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative data (total N = 210). We further compared specific white matter tracts among the 3 groups. Compared with the NC group, the MCI group had significantly increased global AxD and global RD. Compared with the NC and MCI groups, the AD group had significantly decreased global fractional anisotropy, increased global AxD, and increased global RD. With regard to specific white matter tracts, in the MCI group, we found increased AxD and increased RD in the external capsule, part of the lateral cholinergic pathway, in addition to the tracts connecting the limbic regions, predominantly in the left hemisphere. In the AD group, white matter abnormalities were widespread, including in the external capsule (cholinergic pathway) and limbic region tracts as well as tracts connecting anterior to posterior regions bilaterally. The radiographic manifestation of damaged white matter microstructural integrity in the cholinergic pathway in MCI patients may provide a rational basis for the use of cholinesterase inhibitor drugs in the MCI stage of AD.

Unsustainable development pathways caused by tropical deforestation.

PubMed

Carrasco, Luis Roman; Nghiem, Thi Phuong Le; Chen, Zhirong; Barbier, Edward B

2017-07-01

Global sustainability strategies require assessing whether countries' development trajectories are sustainable over time. However, sustainability assessments are limited because losses of natural capital and its ecosystem services through deforestation have not been comprehensively incorporated into national accounts. We update the national accounts of 80 nations that underwent tropical deforestation from 2000 to 2012 and evaluate their development trajectories using weak and strong sustainability criteria. Weak sustainability requires that countries do not decrease their aggregate capital over time. We adopt a strong sustainability criterion that countries do not decrease the value of their forest ecosystem services with respect to the year 2000. We identify several groups of countries: countries, such as Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, and India, that present sustainable development trajectories under both weak and strong sustainability criteria; countries, such as Brazil, Peru, and Indonesia, that present weak sustainable development but fail the strong sustainability criterion as a result of rapid losses of ecosystem services; countries, such as Madagascar, Laos, and Papua New Guinea, that present unsustainable development pathways as a result of deforestation; and countries, such as Democratic Republic of Congo and Sierra Leone, in which deforestation aggravates already unsustainable pathways. Our results reveal a large number of countries where tropical deforestation is both damaging to nature and not compensated by development in other sectors, thus compromising the well-being of their future generations.

Bacterial synthesis gas (syngas) fermentation.

PubMed

Bengelsdorf, Frank R; Straub, Melanie; Dürre, Peter

2013-01-01

Acetogenic bacteria employing the Wood-Ljungdahl pathway can be used as biocatalysts in syngas fermentation for the production ofbiofuels such as ethanol or butanol as well as biocommodities such as acetate, lactate, butyrate, 2,3 butanediol, and acetone. The potential of such processes can be projected by the global syngas output, which was 70,817 megawatts thermal in 2010 and is expected to increase up to 72% in 2016. To date, different acetogens are used as commercial production strains for industrial syngas fermentations in pilot or demonstration plants (Coskata, INEOS Bio, LanzaTech) and first commercial units are expected to launch operation in the near future (INEOS Bio, LanzaTech). Considerations on potential yields are quite promising for fermentative production. New methods for metabolic engineering were established to construct novel recombinant acetogenic biocatalysts. Synthetic biology will certainly play a major role in constructing strains for commercial operations. This way, a cheap and abundant carbon source most probably replace, processes based on crude oil or sugar in the near future.

Fostering Minerals Workforce Skills of Tomorrow through Education and Training Partnerships

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lind, Gavin

The Minerals Council of Australia (MCA), through its Minerals Tertiary Education Council (MTEC), builds capacity in higher education in the core disciplines of mining engineering, metallurgy and minerals geoscience. Over the past fourteen years, this all-of-industry approach in securing the long-term supply of these critical skills (which remain a chronic skills shortage for the Australian minerals industry) through nationally collaborative programs across sixteen Australian universities delivers spectacular and sustainable results for the industry. These unique, world-first programs are built on a healthy platform of dedicated industry funding and in-kind support and forms part of the MCA's broader uninterrupted, sustainable education and training pathway to increase workforce participation, workforce diversity and workforce skills, regardless of the business cycle in the industry. This paper will highlight the origins, iterations and current successful programs of MTEC, including its future vision, and presents a mechanism for industry and academia to collaborate to address future professional skills needs in the minerals industry globally.

Assessing the impacts of 1.5 °C global warming - simulation protocol of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2b)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frieler, Katja; Lange, Stefan; Piontek, Franziska; Reyer, Christopher P. O.; Schewe, Jacob; Warszawski, Lila; Zhao, Fang; Chini, Louise; Denvil, Sebastien; Emanuel, Kerry; Geiger, Tobias; Halladay, Kate; Hurtt, George; Mengel, Matthias; Murakami, Daisuke; Ostberg, Sebastian; Popp, Alexander; Riva, Riccardo; Stevanovic, Miodrag; Suzuki, Tatsuo; Volkholz, Jan; Burke, Eleanor; Ciais, Philippe; Ebi, Kristie; Eddy, Tyler D.; Elliott, Joshua; Galbraith, Eric; Gosling, Simon N.; Hattermann, Fred; Hickler, Thomas; Hinkel, Jochen; Hof, Christian; Huber, Veronika; Jägermeyr, Jonas; Krysanova, Valentina; Marcé, Rafael; Müller Schmied, Hannes; Mouratiadou, Ioanna; Pierson, Don; Tittensor, Derek P.; Vautard, Robert; van Vliet, Michelle; Biber, Matthias F.; Betts, Richard A.; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Deryng, Delphine; Frolking, Steve; Jones, Chris D.; Lotze, Heike K.; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Sahajpal, Ritvik; Thonicke, Kirsten; Tian, Hanqin; Yamagata, Yoshiki

2017-11-01

In Paris, France, December 2015, the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to provide a special report in 2018 on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways. In Nairobi, Kenya, April 2016, the IPCC panel accepted the invitation. Here we describe the response devised within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) to provide tailored, cross-sectorally consistent impact projections to broaden the scientific basis for the report. The simulation protocol is designed to allow for (1) separation of the impacts of historical warming starting from pre-industrial conditions from impacts of other drivers such as historical land-use changes (based on pre-industrial and historical impact model simulations); (2) quantification of the impacts of additional warming up to 1.5 °C, including a potential overshoot and long-term impacts up to 2299, and comparison to higher levels of global mean temperature change (based on the low-emissions Representative Concentration Pathway RCP2.6 and a no-mitigation pathway RCP6.0) with socio-economic conditions fixed at 2005 levels; and (3) assessment of the climate effects based on the same climate scenarios while accounting for simultaneous changes in socio-economic conditions following the middle-of-the-road Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP2, Fricko et al., 2016) and in particular differential bioenergy requirements associated with the transformation of the energy system to comply with RCP2.6 compared to RCP6.0. With the aim of providing the scientific basis for an aggregation of impacts across sectors and analysis of cross-sectoral interactions that may dampen or amplify sectoral impacts, the protocol is designed to facilitate consistent impact projections from a range of impact models across different sectors (global and regional hydrology, lakes, global crops, global vegetation, regional forests, global and regional marine ecosystems and fisheries, global and regional coastal infrastructure, energy supply and demand, temperature-related mortality, and global terrestrial biodiversity).

Using the New Scenarios Framework to Inform Climate Change Adaptation Policy in Finland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carter, T. R.

2013-12-01

In 2005, Finland was among the first countries in the world to develop a national climate change adaptation strategy (Marttila et al., 2005). This included a characterization of future changes in climate and socioeconomic conditions using scenarios based on the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES - IPCC, 2000). Following a government evaluation of the strategy, completion of a national adaptation research programme, and in light of the recent European Union adaptation strategy, the Finnish strategy is now under revision. As part of this revision process, the New Scenario Framework (Moss et al., 2010) is being used to guide the mapping of future conditions in Finland out to the end of the 21st century. Future Finnish climate is being analysed using the CMIP5 climate model simulations (Taylor et al., 2012), including downscaled information based on regional climate model projections in the EURO-CORDEX project (Vautard et al., 2013). All projections are forced by the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs - van Vuuren et al., 2011). Socioeconomic scenarios are also being developed by outlining alternative pathways that reflect national social, economic, environmental and planning goals. These are designed according to the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) framework of challenges to adaptation and mitigation (Kriegler et al., 2012). Work is in progress to characterize these pathways, mainly qualitatively, for different sectors in Finland. Preliminary results of the conceptual scenario development phase will be presented in this session. These initial ideas will be exchanged with representatives of ministries, regional government and key stakeholder groups. The eventual form and number of scenarios that appear in the revised strategy will be determined following a formal review of the draft document to be prepared in 2014. Future work could include quantification of scenarios, possibly mapping them onto the specific SSP worlds. This would then provide a firm basis for future climate change impact, adaptation and vulnerability assessments, offering RCP/SSP-based scenarios that are not only related to the global New Scenarios Framework, but are also recognised by national policy makers and key stakeholders, via the revised national climate change adaptation strategy. References IPCC (2000) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios: A Special Report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. [Nakićenović, N. et al. (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, 600 pp. Kriegler E et al. (2012) The need for and use of socio-economic scenarios for climate change analysis: A new approach based on shared socio-economic pathways. Glob. Envir. Change 22:807-822. Marttila V et al. (2005) Finland's National Strategy for Adaptation to Climate Change, MMM publications 1a/2005, Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, Helsinki, Finland, 280 pp. Moss RH et al. (2010) The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment. Nature 463:747-756. Taylor KE et al. (2012) A summary of the CMIP5 experiment design. BAMS 93:485-498. van Vuuren DP et al. (2011) The representative concentration pathways: an overview. Clim. Change 109:5-31. Vautard R et al. (2013) The simulation of European heat waves from an ensemble of regional climate models within the EURO-CORDEX project. Clim. Dyn. doi:10.1007/s00382-013-1714-z

Scenario dependence of future changes in climate extremes under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Zhili; Lin, Lei; Zhang, Xiaoye; Zhang, Hua; Liu, Liangke; Xu, Yangyang

2017-04-01

The 2015 Paris Agreement aims to limit global warming below 2 °C and pursue efforts to even limit it to 1.5 °C relative to pre-industrial levels. Decision makers need reliable information on the impacts caused by these warming levels for climate mitigation and adaptation measures. We explore the changes in climate extremes, which are closely tied to economic losses and casualties, under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming and their scenario dependence using three sets of ensemble global climate model simulations. A warming of 0.5 °C (from 1.5 °C to 2 °C) leads to significant increases in temperature and precipitation extremes in most regions. However, the projected changes in climate extremes under both warming levels highly depend on the pathways of emissions scenarios, with different greenhouse gas (GHG)/aerosol forcing ratio and GHG levels. Moreover, there are multifold differences in several heavily polluted regions, among the scenarios, in the changes in precipitation extremes due to an additional 0.5 °C warming from 1.5 °C to 2 °C. Our results demonstrate that the chemical compositions of emissions scenarios, not just the total radiative forcing and resultant warming level, must be considered when assessing the impacts of global 1.5/2 °C warming.

Scenario dependence of future changes in climate extremes under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming.

PubMed

Wang, Zhili; Lin, Lei; Zhang, Xiaoye; Zhang, Hua; Liu, Liangke; Xu, Yangyang

2017-04-20

The 2015 Paris Agreement aims to limit global warming below 2 °C and pursue efforts to even limit it to 1.5 °C relative to pre-industrial levels. Decision makers need reliable information on the impacts caused by these warming levels for climate mitigation and adaptation measures. We explore the changes in climate extremes, which are closely tied to economic losses and casualties, under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming and their scenario dependence using three sets of ensemble global climate model simulations. A warming of 0.5 °C (from 1.5 °C to 2 °C) leads to significant increases in temperature and precipitation extremes in most regions. However, the projected changes in climate extremes under both warming levels highly depend on the pathways of emissions scenarios, with different greenhouse gas (GHG)/aerosol forcing ratio and GHG levels. Moreover, there are multifold differences in several heavily polluted regions, among the scenarios, in the changes in precipitation extremes due to an additional 0.5 °C warming from 1.5 °C to 2 °C. Our results demonstrate that the chemical compositions of emissions scenarios, not just the total radiative forcing and resultant warming level, must be considered when assessing the impacts of global 1.5/2 °C warming.

Scenario dependence of future changes in climate extremes under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming

PubMed Central

Wang, Zhili; Lin, Lei; Zhang, Xiaoye; Zhang, Hua; Liu, Liangke; Xu, Yangyang

2017-01-01

The 2015 Paris Agreement aims to limit global warming below 2 °C and pursue efforts to even limit it to 1.5 °C relative to pre-industrial levels. Decision makers need reliable information on the impacts caused by these warming levels for climate mitigation and adaptation measures. We explore the changes in climate extremes, which are closely tied to economic losses and casualties, under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming and their scenario dependence using three sets of ensemble global climate model simulations. A warming of 0.5 °C (from 1.5 °C to 2 °C) leads to significant increases in temperature and precipitation extremes in most regions. However, the projected changes in climate extremes under both warming levels highly depend on the pathways of emissions scenarios, with different greenhouse gas (GHG)/aerosol forcing ratio and GHG levels. Moreover, there are multifold differences in several heavily polluted regions, among the scenarios, in the changes in precipitation extremes due to an additional 0.5 °C warming from 1.5 °C to 2 °C. Our results demonstrate that the chemical compositions of emissions scenarios, not just the total radiative forcing and resultant warming level, must be considered when assessing the impacts of global 1.5/2 °C warming. PMID:28425445

Implications of cumulative GHG Emissions to Climate, Society and Ecosystems in California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cayan, D. R.; Franco, G.; Pierce, D. W.

2016-12-01

We investigate simulations conducted for the ongoing Climate Change Assessments in California. In this presentation, we explore implications of global climate change threshold targets on temperature, precipitation, sea level rise, snow pack, and extreme events including heat waves, wildfire and coastal flooding in California. A set of regional models driven by an ensemble of global climate change futures from 4th and 5th IPCC Assessment GCMs indicate how California's climate and thus its hydrological systems, coast and wildlands respond to increasing atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations at levels that produce global warming of 1.5°C and beyond. Differing global greenhouse gas emissions scenarios would produce strongly diverging results after mid-21st Century, as emphasized by the suite of modeled regional climate measures. The results demonstrate that global emissions can be used, independent of emissions pathway (but not entirely and not for all climate and impact measures), to estimate physical changes at the local and regional levels in the State. These relationships are explored to re-interpret prior studies that were based on the SRES emission scenarios along with the current suite of RCP scenarios. In addition, because historical emissions are above what was envisioned for the RCPs, and since the 2015 Conference of Parties implies a departure from the RCPs, consideration of cumulative CO2 emissions provides a useful tool for contextualizing historical emissions and expected outcomes from COP21. Climate policy implications are described, including climate adaptation guidance that California entities are required or encouraged to follow.

Global Neurology: Navigating Career Possibilities.

PubMed

Schiess, Nicoline; Saylor, Deanna; Zunt, Joseph

2018-04-01

Neurology has not typically been associated with international relief work; however, with the growth of chronic cardiovascular disease and stroke associated with unhealthy eating and sedentary ways, the appearance of "new" neurologic diseases, such as the Zika and West Nile viruses, and the high numbers of seizure disorders resulting from neuroinfectious diseases, more opportunities are arising for international and globally oriented neurologists. Multiple opportunities exist for developing a global clinician-educator career pathway, including private institutions, nongovernmental organizations, government-funded opportunities such as Medical Education Partnership Initiative, Fogarty and Fulbright Scholarships, and the American Academy of Neurology's Global Health Section. Furthermore, increasing research capacity in developing countries and increased funding opportunities for global health research have led to new opportunities for neurologists to establish global health research careers. These opportunities could not have come at a better time, as many faculty members have noted a particularly strong interest in global neurology from medical students and residents. Career categories and opportunities for neurologists desiring to work globally are discussed along with the emerging "global neurologist" academic pathway. Thieme Medical Publishers 333 Seventh Avenue, New York, NY 10001, USA.

Local and Global Resting State Activity in the Noradrenergic and Dopaminergic Pathway Modulated by Reboxetine and Amisulpride in Healthy Subjects

PubMed Central

Wiegers, Maike; Walter, Martin; Abler, Birgit; Graf, Heiko

2016-01-01

Background: Various psychiatric populations are currently investigated with resting state fMRI, with the aim of individualizing diagnostics and treatment options and improving treatment outcomes. Many of these studies are conducted in large naturalistic samples, providing rich insights regarding disease-related neural alterations, but with the common psychopharmacological medication limiting interpretations of the results. We therefore investigated the effects of common noradrenergic and anti-dopaminergic medications on local and global resting state activity (rs-activity) in healthy volunteers to further the understanding of the respective effects independent from disease-related alterations. Methods: Within a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled crossover design, we investigated 19 healthy male subjects by resting state fMRI after the intake of reboxetine (4mg/d), amisulpride (200mg/d), and placebo for 7 days each. Treatment-related differences in local and global rs-activity were measured by the fractional amplitude of low frequency fluctuations (fALFF) and resting state functional connectivity (rs-FC). Results: fALFF revealed alterations of local rs-activity within regions of the core noradrenergic pathway, including the locus coeruleus under reboxetine, correlated with its plasma levels. Moreover, reboxetine led to increased rs-FC between regions within this pathway, i.e. the locus coeruleus, tectum, thalamus, and amygdala. Amisulpride modulated local rs-activity of regions within the dopaminergic pathway, with the altered signal in the putamen correlating with amisulpride plasma levels. Correspondingly, amisulpride increased rs-FC between regions of the dopaminergic pathway comprising the substantia nigra and putamen. Conclusion: Our data provide evidence of how psychopharmacological agents alter local and global rs-activity within the respective neuroanatomical pathways in healthy subjects, which may help with interpreting data in psychiatric populations. PMID:26209860

Mechanisms for the inversion of chirality: global reaction route mapping of stereochemical pathways in a probable chiral extraterrestrial molecule, 2-aminopropionitrile.

PubMed

Kaur, Ramanpreet; Vikas

2015-02-21

2-Aminopropionitrile (APN), a probable candidate as a chiral astrophysical molecule, is a precursor to amino-acid alanine. Stereochemical pathways in 2-APN are explored using Global Reaction Route Mapping (GRRM) method employing high-level quantum-mechanical computations. Besides predicting the conventional mechanism for chiral inversion that proceeds through an achiral intermediate, a counterintuitive flipping mechanism is revealed for 2-APN through chiral intermediates explored using the GRRM. The feasibility of the proposed stereochemical pathways, in terms of the Gibbs free-energy change, is analyzed at the temperature conditions akin to the interstellar medium. Notably, the stereoinversion in 2-APN is observed to be more feasible than the dissociation of 2-APN and intermediates involved along the stereochemical pathways, and the flipping barrier is observed to be as low as 3.68 kJ/mol along one of the pathways. The pathways proposed for the inversion of chirality in 2-APN may provide significant insight into the extraterrestrial origin of life.

Projection of future temperature-related mortality due to climate and demographic changes.

PubMed

Lee, Jae Young; Kim, Ho

2016-09-01

Understanding the effects of global climate change from both environmental and human health perspectives has gained great importance. Particularly, studies on the direct effect of temperature increase on future mortality have been conducted. However, few of those studies considered population changes, and although the world population is rapidly aging, no previous study considered the effect of society aging. Here we present a projection of future temperature-related mortality due to both climate and demographic changes in seven major cities of South Korea, a fast aging country, until 2100; we used the HadGEM3-RA model under four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) and the United Nations world population prospects under three fertility scenarios (high, medium, and low). The results showed markedly increased mortality in the elderly group, significantly increasing the overall future mortality. In 2090s, South Korea could experience a four- to six-time increase in temperature-related mortality compared to that during 1992-2010 under four different RCP scenarios and three different fertility variants, while the mortality is estimated to increase only by 0.5 to 1.5 times assuming no population aging. Therefore, not considering population aging may significantly underestimate temperature risks. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Harmonisation of Global Land-Use Scenarios for the Period 1500-2100 for IPCC-AR5

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hurtt, George; Chini, Louise Parsons; Frolking, Steve

2009-06-01

In preparation for the fifth Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change climate change assessment (IPCC-AR5), the international community is developing new advanced computer models (CMs) to address the combined effects of human activities (e.g. land-use and fossil fuel emissions) on the carbon-climate system. In addition, four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios of the future (2005-2100) are being developed by four Integrated Assessment Modeling teams (IAMs) to be used as input to the CMs for future climate projections. The diversity of requirements and approaches among CMs and IAMs for tracking land-use changes (past, present, and future), presents major challenges for treating land-usemore » comprehensively and consistently between these communities. As part of an international working group, we have been working to meet these challenges by developing a "harmonized" set of land-use change scenarios that smoothly connects gridded historical reconstructions of land-use with future projections, in a format required by CMs. This approach to harmonizing the treatment of land-use between two key modeling communities, CMs and IAMs, represents a major advance that will facilitate more consistent and fuller treatments of land-use/land-use change effects including both CO2 emissions and corresponding land-surface changes.« less

Scenarios reveal pathways to sustain future ecosystem services in an agricultural landscape.

PubMed

Qiu, Jiangxiao; Carpenter, Stephen R; Booth, Eric G; Motew, Melissa; Zipper, Samuel C; Kucharik, Christopher J; Chen, Xi; Loheide, Steven P; Seifert, Jenny; Turner, Monica G

2018-01-01

Sustaining food production, water quality, soil retention, flood, and climate regulation in agricultural landscapes is a pressing global challenge given accelerating environmental changes. Scenarios are stories about plausible futures, and scenarios can be integrated with biophysical simulation models to explore quantitatively how the future might unfold. However, few studies have incorporated a wide range of drivers (e.g., climate, land-use, management, population, human diet) in spatially explicit, process-based models to investigate spatial-temporal dynamics and relationships of a portfolio of ecosystem services. Here, we simulated nine ecosystem services (three provisioning and six regulating services) at 220 × 220 m from 2010 to 2070 under four contrasting scenarios in the 1,345-km 2 Yahara Watershed (Wisconsin, USA) using Agro-IBIS, a dynamic model of terrestrial ecosystem processes, biogeochemistry, water, and energy balance. We asked (1) How does ecosystem service supply vary among alternative future scenarios? (2) Where on the landscape is the provision of ecosystem services most susceptible to future social-ecological changes? (3) Among alternative future scenarios, are relationships (i.e., trade-offs, synergies) among food production, water, and biogeochemical services consistent over time? Our results showed that food production varied substantially with future land-use choices and management, and its trade-offs with water quality and soil retention persisted under most scenarios. However, pathways to mitigate or even reverse such trade-offs through technological advances and sustainable agricultural practices were apparent. Consistent relationships among regulating services were identified across scenarios (e.g., trade-offs of freshwater supply vs. flood and climate regulation, and synergies among water quality, soil retention, and climate regulation), suggesting opportunities and challenges to sustaining these services. In particular, proactive land-use changes and management may buffer water quality against undesirable future climate changes, but changing climate may overwhelm management efforts to sustain freshwater supply and flood regulation. Spatially, changes in ecosystem services were heterogeneous across the landscape, underscoring the power of local actions and fine-scale management. Our research highlights the value of embracing spatial and temporal perspectives in managing ecosystem services and their complex interactions, and provides a system-level understanding for achieving sustainability of the food-water-climate nexus in agricultural landscapes. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

On the Nature of Expansion of Paget’s Disease of Bone

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-10-01

signaling pathway. Gene expression normalized to normal adjacent bone samples. 5 Global expression analysis revealed genes downstream of the Hedgehog ... Hedgehog (Hh) signaling pathway (Figure 5). Again, as in the TLR signaling pathway, specific elements of the Hh signaling pathway showed increased...mutations upregulated expression of genes in the Hedgehog signaling pathway. 7. Discovery that an osteoblastic cell line (PSV10) derived from a PDB

Effects of aerosol emission pathways on future warming and human health

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Partanen, Antti-Ilari; Matthews, Damon

2016-04-01

The peak global temperature is largely determined by cumulative emissions of long-lived greenhouse gases. However, anthropogenic emissions include also so-called short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs), which include aerosol particles and methane. Previous studies with simple models indicate that the timing of SLCF emission reductions has only a small effect on the rate of global warming and even less of an effect on global peak temperatures. However, these simple model analyses do not capture the spatial dynamics of aerosol-climate interactions, nor do they consider the additional effects of aerosol emissions on human health. There is therefore merit in assessing how the timing of aerosol emission reductions affects global temperature and premature mortality caused by elevated aerosol concentrations, using more comprehensive climate models. Here, we used an aerosol-climate model ECHAM-HAMMOZ to simulate the direct and indirect radiative forcing resulting from aerosol emissions. We simulated Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios, and we also designed idealized low and high aerosol emission pathways based on RCP4.5 scenario (LOW and HIGH, respectively). From these simulations, we calculated the Effective Radiative Forcing (ERF) from aerosol emissions between 1850 and 2100, as well as aerosol concentrations used to estimate the premature mortality caused by particulate pollution. We then use the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model to simulate the spatial and temporal pattern of climate response to these aerosol-forcing scenarios, in combination with prescribed emissions of both short and long-lived greenhouse gases according to the RCP4.5 scenario. In the RCP scenarios, global mean ERF declined during the 21st century from -1.3 W m-2 to -0.4 W m-2 (RCP8.5) and -0.2 W m-2 (RCP2.6). In the sensitivity scenarios, the forcing at the end of the 21st century was -1.6 W m-2 (HIGH) and practically zero (LOW). The difference in global mean temperature at the year 2100 between LOW and HIGH was about 0.4 °C. The effect was even more significant on the global mean warming rate that reached 0.4 °C per decade in LOW and only 0.2 °C per decade in HIGH. The global temperature and warming rate were similar to each other in simulations using the aerosol emissions from standard RCP scenarios. Anthropogenic aerosols caused significant premature mortality during the 21st century. In 2005, they caused 1.5 million deaths annually. The annual death rate dropped to 0.13 million per year in LOW and was 0.9 million per year in HIGH by 2100. Total premature mortality caused by anthropogenic aerosol particles between 2005 and 2100 was 27 million in LOW, 52-68 million in RCPs, and 113 million in HIGH. Our results show that both climate and health effects of aerosols are fairly similar across RCP scenarios. However, RCPs share assumptions on effective air-quality policies. Our scenarios LOW and HIGH demonstrate that if strong aerosol policies are not enforced or even more ambitious cuts in aerosol emissions are made, the aerosol impacts on climate and health can differ significantly between scenarios.

Global mega forces: Implications for the future of natural resources

Treesearch

George H. Kubik

2012-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to provide an overview of leading global mega forces and their importance to the future of natural resource decisionmaking, policy development, and operation. Global mega forces are defined as a combination of major trends, preferences, and probabilities that come together to produce the potential for future high-impact outcomes. These...

A Network Biology Approach to Decipher Stress Response in Bacteria Using Escherichia coli As a Model.

PubMed

Nagar, Shashwat Deepali; Aggarwal, Bhavye; Joon, Shikha; Bhatnagar, Rakesh; Bhatnagar, Sonika

2016-05-01

The development of drug-resistant pathogenic bacteria poses challenges to global health for their treatment and control. In this context, stress response enables bacterial populations to survive extreme perturbations in the environment but remains poorly understood. Specific modules are activated for unique stressors with few recognized global regulators. The phenomenon of cross-stress protection strongly suggests the presence of central proteins that control the diverse stress responses. In this work, Escherichia coli was used to model the bacterial stress response. A Protein-Protein Interaction Network was generated by integrating differentially expressed genes in eight stress conditions of pH, temperature, and antibiotics with relevant gene ontology terms. Topological analysis identified 24 central proteins. The well-documented role of 16 central proteins in stress indicates central control of the response, while the remaining eight proteins may have a novel role in stress response. Cluster analysis of the generated network implicated RNA binding, flagellar assembly, ABC transporters, and DNA repair as important processes during response to stress. Pathway analysis showed crosstalk of Two Component Systems with metabolic processes, oxidative phosphorylation, and ABC transporters. The results were further validated by analysis of an independent cross-stress protection dataset. This study also reports on the ways in which bacterial stress response can progress to biofilm formation. In conclusion, we suggest that drug targets or pathways disrupting bacterial stress responses can potentially be exploited to combat antibiotic tolerance and multidrug resistance in the future.

Islamophobia and Public Health in the United States.

PubMed

Samari, Goleen

2016-11-01

Anti-Muslim sentiments are increasingly common globally and in the United States. The recent rise in Islamophobia calls for a public health perspective that considers the stigmatized identity of Muslim Americans and health implications of Islamophobic discrimination. Drawing on a stigma, discrimination, and health framework, I expand the dialogue on the rise of Islamophobia to a discussion of how Islamophobia affects the health of Muslim Americans. Islamophobia can negatively influence health by disrupting several systems-individual (stress reactivity and identity concealment), interpersonal (social relationships and socialization processes), and structural (institutional policies and media coverage). Islamophobia deserves attention as a source of negative health outcomes and health disparities. Future public health research should explore the multilevel and multidimensional pathways between Islamophobia and population health.

Insights into the genetics of gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) and GERD-related disorders.

PubMed

Böhmer, A C; Schumacher, J

2017-02-01

Gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) is associated with obesity and hiatal hernia, and often precedes the development of Barrett's esophagus (BE) and esophageal adenocarcinoma (EA). Epidemiological studies show that the global prevalence of GERD is increasing. GERD is a multifactorial disease with a complex genetic architecture. Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have provided initial insights into the genetic background of GERD. The present review summarizes current knowledge of the genetics of GERD and a possible genetic overlap between GERD and BE and EA. The review discusses genes and cellular pathways that have been implicated through GWAS, and provides an outlook on how future molecular research will enhance understanding of GERD pathophysiology. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Islamophobia and Public Health in the United States

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Anti-Muslim sentiments are increasingly common globally and in the United States. The recent rise in Islamophobia calls for a public health perspective that considers the stigmatized identity of Muslim Americans and health implications of Islamophobic discrimination. Drawing on a stigma, discrimination, and health framework, I expand the dialogue on the rise of Islamophobia to a discussion of how Islamophobia affects the health of Muslim Americans. Islamophobia can negatively influence health by disrupting several systems—individual (stress reactivity and identity concealment), interpersonal (social relationships and socialization processes), and structural (institutional policies and media coverage). Islamophobia deserves attention as a source of negative health outcomes and health disparities. Future public health research should explore the multilevel and multidimensional pathways between Islamophobia and population health. PMID:27631738

Sediment transport patterns in the San Francisco Bay Coastal System from cross-validation of bedform asymmetry and modeled residual flux

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barnard, Patrick L.; Erikson, Li H.; Elias, Edwin P.L.; Dartnell, Peter

2013-01-01

The morphology of ~ 45,000 bedforms from 13 multibeam bathymetry surveys was used as a proxy for identifying net bedload sediment transport directions and pathways throughout the San Francisco Bay estuary and adjacent outer coast. The spatially-averaged shape asymmetry of the bedforms reveals distinct pathways of ebb and flood transport. Additionally, the region-wide, ebb-oriented asymmetry of 5% suggests net seaward-directed transport within the estuarine-coastal system, with significant seaward asymmetry at the mouth of San Francisco Bay (11%), through the northern reaches of the Bay (7-8%), and among the largest bedforms (21% for λ > 50 m). This general indication for the net transport of sand to the open coast strongly suggests that anthropogenic removal of sediment from the estuary, particularly along clearly defined seaward transport pathways, will limit the supply of sand to chronically eroding, open-coast beaches. The bedform asymmetry measurements significantly agree (up to ~ 76%) with modeled annual residual transport directions derived from a hydrodynamically-calibrated numerical model, and the orientation of adjacent, flow-sculpted seafloor features such as mega-flute structures, providing a comprehensive validation of the technique. The methods described in this paper to determine well-defined, cross-validated sediment transport pathways can be applied to estuarine-coastal systems globally where bedforms are present. The results can inform and improve regional sediment management practices to more efficiently utilize often limited sediment resources and mitigate current and future sediment supply-related impacts.

Sediment transport patterns in the San Francisco Bay Coastal System from cross-validation of bedform asymmetry and modeled residual flux

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barnard, Patrick L.; Erikson, Li H.; Elias, Edwin P.L.; Dartnell, Peter; Barnard, P.L.; Jaffee, B.E.; Schoellhamer, D.H.

2013-01-01

The morphology of ~ 45,000 bedforms from 13 multibeam bathymetry surveys was used as a proxy for identifying net bedload sediment transport directions and pathways throughout the San Francisco Bay estuary and adjacent outer coast. The spatially-averaged shape asymmetry of the bedforms reveals distinct pathways of ebb and flood transport. Additionally, the region-wide, ebb-oriented asymmetry of 5% suggests net seaward-directed transport within the estuarine-coastal system, with significant seaward asymmetry at the mouth of San Francisco Bay (11%), through the northern reaches of the Bay (7–8%), and among the largest bedforms (21% for λ > 50 m). This general indication for the net transport of sand to the open coast strongly suggests that anthropogenic removal of sediment from the estuary, particularly along clearly defined seaward transport pathways, will limit the supply of sand to chronically eroding, open-coast beaches. The bedform asymmetry measurements significantly agree (up to ~ 76%) with modeled annual residual transport directions derived from a hydrodynamically-calibrated numerical model, and the orientation of adjacent, flow-sculpted seafloor features such as mega-flute structures, providing a comprehensive validation of the technique. The methods described in this paper to determine well-defined, cross-validated sediment transport pathways can be applied to estuarine-coastal systems globally where bedforms are present. The results can inform and improve regional sediment management practices to more efficiently utilize often limited sediment resources and mitigate current and future sediment supply-related impacts.

Global modelling of Cryptosporidium in surface water

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vermeulen, Lucie; Hofstra, Nynke

2016-04-01

Introduction Waterborne pathogens that cause diarrhoea, such as Cryptosporidium, pose a health risk all over the world. In many regions quantitative information on pathogens in surface water is unavailable. Our main objective is to model Cryptosporidium concentrations in surface waters worldwide. We present the GloWPa-Crypto model and use the model in a scenario analysis. A first exploration of global Cryptosporidium emissions to surface waters has been published by Hofstra et al. (2013). Further work has focused on modelling emissions of Cryptosporidium and Rotavirus to surface waters from human sources (Vermeulen et al 2015, Kiulia et al 2015). A global waterborne pathogen model can provide valuable insights by (1) providing quantitative information on pathogen levels in data-sparse regions, (2) identifying pathogen hotspots, (3) enabling future projections under global change scenarios and (4) supporting decision making. Material and Methods GloWPa-Crypto runs on a monthly time step and represents conditions for approximately the year 2010. The spatial resolution is a 0.5 x 0.5 degree latitude x longitude grid for the world. We use livestock maps (http://livestock.geo-wiki.org/) combined with literature estimates to calculate spatially explicit livestock Cryptosporidium emissions. For human Cryptosporidium emissions, we use UN population estimates, the WHO/UNICEF JMP sanitation country data and literature estimates of wastewater treatment. We combine our emissions model with a river routing model and data from the VIC hydrological model (http://vic.readthedocs.org/en/master/) to calculate concentrations in surface water. Cryptosporidium survival during transport depends on UV radiation and water temperature. We explore pathogen emissions and concentrations in 2050 with the new Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) 1 and 3. These scenarios describe plausible future trends in demographics, economic development and the degree of global integration. Results and Conclusions GloWPa-Crypto is the first global model that can be used to analyse dynamics in surface water pathogen concentrations worldwide. Global human Cryptosporidium emissions are estimated at 1 x 10^17 oocysts/ year for the year 2010.We estimated future emissions for SSP1 and SSP3. Preliminary results show that for SSP1human emissions are approximately halved by 2050. The SSP3 human emissions are 1.5 times higher than the 2010 emissions due to increased population growth and urbanisation. Livestock Cryptosporidium emissions are expected to increase under both SSP1 and SSP3, as meat consumption continues to rise. We conclude that population growth, urbanization, changes in sanitation systems and treatment, and changes in livestock consumption and production systems are important processes that determine future Cryptosporidium emissions to surface water. References Hofstra N, Bouwman A F, Beusen A H W and Medema G J 2013 Exploring global Cryptosporidium emissions to surface water Sci. Total Environ. 442 10-9 Kiulia N M, Hofstra N, Vermeulen L C, Obara M A, Medema G J and Rose J B 2015 Global occurrence and emission of rotaviruses to surface waters Pathogens 4 229-55 Vermeulen L C, De Kraker J, Hofstra N, Kroeze C and Medema G J 2015 Modelling the impact of sanitation, population and urbanization estimates on human emissions of Cryptosporidium to surface waters - a case study for Bangladesh and India Environ. Res. Lett. 10

Projections of oceanic N2O emissions in the 21st century using the IPSL Earth system model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martinez-Rey, J.; Bopp, L.; Gehlen, M.; Tagliabue, A.; Gruber, N.

2015-07-01

The ocean is a substantial source of nitrous oxide (N2O) to the atmosphere, but little is known about how this flux might change in the future. Here, we investigate the potential evolution of marine N2O emissions in the 21st century in response to anthropogenic climate change using the global ocean biogeochemical model NEMO-PISCES. Assuming nitrification as the dominant N2O formation pathway, we implemented two different parameterizations of N2O production which differ primarily under low-oxygen (O2) conditions. When forced with output from a climate model simulation run under the business-as-usual high-CO2 concentration scenario (RCP8.5), our simulations suggest a decrease of 4 to 12 % in N2O emissions from 2005 to 2100, i.e., a reduction from 4.03/3.71 to 3.54/3.56 TgN yr-1 depending on the parameterization. The emissions decrease strongly in the western basins of the Pacific and Atlantic oceans, while they tend to increase above the oxygen minimum zones (OMZs), i.e., in the eastern tropical Pacific and in the northern Indian Ocean. The reduction in N2O emissions is caused on the one hand by weakened nitrification as a consequence of reduced primary and export production, and on the other hand by stronger vertical stratification, which reduces the transport of N2O from the ocean interior to the ocean surface. The higher emissions over the OMZ are linked to an expansion of these zones under global warming, which leads to increased N2O production, associated primarily with denitrification. While there are many uncertainties in the relative contribution and changes in the N2O production pathways, the increasing storage seems unequivocal and determines largely the decrease in N2O emissions in the future. From the perspective of a global climate system, the averaged feedback strength associated with the projected decrease in oceanic N2O emissions amounts to around -0.009 W m-2 K-1, which is comparable to the potential increase from terrestrial N2O sources. However, the assessment for a potential balance between the terrestrial and marine feedbacks calls for an improved representation of N2O production terms in fully coupled next-generation Earth system models.

3-Bromopyruvate treatment induces alterations of metabolic and stress-related pathways in glioblastoma cells.

PubMed

Chiasserini, Davide; Davidescu, Magdalena; Orvietani, Pier Luigi; Susta, Federica; Macchioni, Lara; Petricciuolo, Maya; Castigli, Emilia; Roberti, Rita; Binaglia, Luciano; Corazzi, Lanfranco

2017-01-30

Glioblastoma (GBM) is the most common and aggressive brain tumour of adults. The metabolic phenotype of GBM cells is highly dependent on glycolysis; therefore, therapeutic strategies aimed at interfering with glycolytic pathways are under consideration. 3-Bromopyruvate (3BP) is a potent antiglycolytic agent, with a variety of targets and possible effects on global cell metabolism. Here we analyzed the changes in protein expression on a GBM cell line (GL15 cells) caused by 3BP treatment using a global proteomic approach. Validation of differential protein expression was performed with immunoblotting and enzyme activity assays in GL15 and U251 cell lines. The results show that treatment of GL15 cells with 3BP leads to extensive changes in the expression of glycolytic enzymes and stress related proteins. Importantly, other metabolisms were also affected, including pentose phosphate pathway, aminoacid synthesis, and glucose derivatives production. 3BP elicited the activation of stress response proteins, as shown by the phosphorylation of HSPB1 at serine 82, caused by the concomitant activation of the p38 pathway. Our results show that inhibition of glycolysis in GL15 cells by 3BP influences different but interconnected pathways. Proteome analysis may help in the molecular characterization of the glioblastoma response induced by pharmacological treatment with antiglycolytic agents. Alteration of the glycolytic pathway characterizes glioblastoma (GBM), one of the most common brain tumours. Metabolic reprogramming with agents able to inhibit carbohydrate metabolism might be a viable strategy to complement the treatment of these tumours. The antiglycolytic agent 3-bromopyruvate (3BP) is able to strongly inhibit glycolysis but it may affect also other cellular pathways and its precise cellular targets are currently unknown. To understand the protein expression changes induced by 3BP, we performed a global proteomic analysis of a GBM cell line (GL15) treated with 3BP. We found that 3BP affected not only the glycolytic pathway, but also pathways sharing metabolic intermediates with glycolysis, such as the pentose phosphate pathway and aminoacid metabolism. Furthermore, changes in the expression of proteins linked to resistance to cell death and stress response were found. Our work is the first analysis on a global scale of the proteome changes induced by 3BP in a GBM model and may contribute to clarifying the anticancer potential of this drug. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Role of Bacillithiol in Gram-Positive Firmicutes

PubMed Central

Chandrangsu, Pete; Loi, Vu Van

2018-01-01

Abstract Significance: Since the discovery and structural characterization of bacillithiol (BSH), the biochemical functions of BSH-biosynthesis enzymes (BshA/B/C) and BSH-dependent detoxification enzymes (FosB, Bst, GlxA/B) have been explored in Bacillus and Staphylococcus species. It was shown that BSH plays an important role in detoxification of reactive oxygen and electrophilic species, alkylating agents, toxins, and antibiotics. Recent Advances: More recently, new functions of BSH were discovered in metal homeostasis (Zn buffering, Fe-sulfur cluster, and copper homeostasis) and virulence control in Staphylococcus aureus. Unexpectedly, strains of the S. aureus NCTC8325 lineage were identified as natural BSH-deficient mutants. Modern mass spectrometry-based approaches have revealed the global reach of protein S-bacillithiolation in Firmicutes as an important regulatory redox modification under hypochlorite stress. S-bacillithiolation of OhrR, MetE, and glyceraldehyde-3-phosphate dehydrogenase (Gap) functions, analogous to S-glutathionylation, as both a redox-regulatory device and in thiol protection under oxidative stress. Critical Issues: Although the functions of the bacilliredoxin (Brx) pathways in the reversal of S-bacillithiolations have been recently addressed, significantly more work is needed to establish the complete Brx reduction pathway, including the major enzyme(s), for reduction of oxidized BSH (BSSB) and the targets of Brx action in vivo. Future Directions: Despite the large number of identified S-bacillithiolated proteins, the physiological relevance of this redox modification was shown for only selected targets and should be a subject of future studies. In addition, many more BSH-dependent detoxification enzymes are evident from previous studies, although their roles and biochemical mechanisms require further study. This review of BSH research also pin-points these missing gaps for future research. Antioxid. Redox Signal. 28, 445–462. PMID:28301954

Hydrometric, Hydrochemical, and Hydrogeophysical Runoff Characterization Across Multiple Land Covers in the Agua Salud Project, Panama

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Litt, Guy Finley

As the Panama Canal Authority faces sensitivity to water shortages, managing water resources becomes crucial for the global shipping industry's security. These studies address knowledge gaps in tropical water resources to aid hydrological model development and validation. Field-based hydrological investigations in the Agua Salud Project within the Panama Canal Watershed employed multiple tools across a variety of land covers to investigate hydrological processes. Geochemical tracers informed where storm runoff in a stream comes from and identified electrical conductivity (EC) as an economical, high sample frequency tracer during small storms. EC-based hydrograph separation coupled with hydrograph recession rate analyses identified shallow and deep groundwater storage-discharge relationships that varied by season and land cover. A series of plot-scale electrical resistivity imaging geophysical experiments coupled with rainfall simulation characterized subsurface flow pathway behavior and quantified respectively increasing infiltration rates across pasture, 10 year old secondary succession forest, teak (tectona grandis), and 30 year old secondary succession forest land covers. Additional soil water, groundwater, and geochemical studies informed conceptual model development in subsurface flow pathways and groundwater, and identified future research needs.

A user-friendly mathematical modelling web interface to assist local decision making in the fight against drug-resistant tuberculosis.

PubMed

Ragonnet, Romain; Trauer, James M; Denholm, Justin T; Marais, Ben J; McBryde, Emma S

2017-05-30

Multidrug-resistant and rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis (MDR/RR-TB) represent an important challenge for global tuberculosis (TB) control. The high rates of MDR/RR-TB observed among re-treatment cases can arise from diverse pathways: de novo amplification during initial treatment, inappropriate treatment of undiagnosed MDR/RR-TB, relapse despite appropriate treatment, or reinfection with MDR/RR-TB. Mathematical modelling allows quantification of the contribution made by these pathways in different settings. This information provides valuable insights for TB policy-makers, allowing better contextualised solutions. However, mathematical modelling outputs need to consider local data and be easily accessible to decision makers in order to improve their usefulness. We present a user-friendly web-based modelling interface, which can be used by people without technical knowledge. Users can input their own parameter values and produce estimates for their specific setting. This innovative tool provides easy access to mathematical modelling outputs that are highly relevant to national TB control programs. In future, the same approach could be applied to a variety of modelling applications, enhancing local decision making.

ENSO Transition Asymmetry: Internal and External Causes and Intermodel Diversity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

An, Soon-Il; Kim, Ji-Won

2018-05-01

El Niño is frequently followed by La Niña, but the opposite case rarely happens. Here we explore a mechanism for such an asymmetrical transition and its future changes. Internally, the asymmetrical response of upper ocean waves against surface wind stress anomaly exerts a primary cause of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) transition asymmetry. Externally, the asymmetrical capacitor effects of both Indian and Atlantic Oceans play some roles in driving the ENSO transition asymmetry via the interbasin interactions. The historical runs of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 show that the intermodel transition asymmetry is significantly correlated with the intermodel asymmetry in ocean wave response to surface wind forcing but not with that in the interbasin interactions. In addition, the El Niño-to-La Niña transition tendency was weaker in moderate global warming scenario runs (Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5) while slightly enhanced in strong warming scenario runs (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5). Similar changes also appeared in the asymmetrical response of ocean waves against the surface wind forcing.

Temporal constraints on future accumulation-area loss of a major Arctic ice cap due to climate change (Vestfonna, Svalbard)

PubMed Central

Möller, Marco; Schneider, Christoph

2015-01-01

Arctic glaciers and ice caps are major contributors to past, present and future sea-level fluctuations. Continued global warming may eventually lead to the equilibrium line altitudes of these ice masses rising above their highest points, triggering unstoppable downwasting. This may feed future sea-level rise considerably. We here present projections for the timing of equilibrium-line loss at the major Arctic ice cap Vestfonna, Svalbard. The projections are based on spatially distributed climatic mass balance modelling driven by the outputs of multiple climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) forced by the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5. Results indicate strongly decreasing climatic mass balances over the 21st century for all RCPs considered. Glacier-wide mass-balance rates will drop down to −4 m a−1 w.e. (water equivalent) at a maximum. The date at which the equilibrium line rises above the summit of Vestfonna (630 m above sea level) is calculated to range between 2040 and 2150, depending on scenario. PMID:25628045

International Recommendations for Training Future Toxicologic Pathologists Participating in Regulatory-Type, Nonclinical Toxicity Studies*

PubMed Central

Bolon, Brad; Barale-Thomas, Erio; Bradley, Alys; Ettlin, Robert A.; Franchi, Carla A.S.; George, Catherine; Giusti, Anna Maria; Hall, Robert; Jacobsen, Matthew; Konishi, Yoichi; Ledieu, David; Morton, Daniel; Park, Jae-Hak; Scudamore, Cheryl L.; Tsuda, Hiroyuki; Vijayasarathi, S.K.; Wijnands, Marcel V.W.

2010-01-01

The International Federation of Societies of Toxicologic Pathologists (IFSTP) proposes a common global framework for training future toxicologic pathologists who will support regulatory-type nonclinical toxicology studies. Trainees optimally should undertake a scientific curriculum of at least 5 years at an accredited institution leading to a clinical degree (veterinary medicine or medicine). Trainees should then obtain 4 or more years of intensive pathology practice during a residency and/or on-the-job “apprenticeship,” at least 2 years of which must be focused on regulatory-type toxicologic pathology topics. Possession of a recognized pathology qualification (i.e., certification) is highly recommended. A non-clinical pathway (e.g., a graduate degree in medical biology or pathology) may be possible if medically trained pathologists are scarce, but this option is not optimal. Regular, lifelong continuing education (peer review of nonclinical studies, professional meetings, reading, short courses) will be necessary to maintain and enhance one’s understanding of current toxicologic pathology knowledge, skills, and tools. This framework should provide a rigorous yet flexible way to reliably train future toxicologic pathologists to generate, interpret, integrate, and communicate data in regulatory-type, nonclinical toxicology studies. PMID:22272030

Trajectories of Future Land Use for Earth System Modeling of the Northeast United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosenzweig, B.; Vorosmarty, C. J.; Lu, X.; Kicklighter, D. W.

2015-12-01

The U.S. Northeast includes some of the nation's most populated cities and their supporting hinterlands, with an urban corridor spanning from Maine to Virginia. The megaregion's centuries-long history of landscape transformations has had enduring impact on the region's hydrology, ecosystems and socioeconomy. Driven by policy decisions made in the next decade, future landscape changes will also interplay with climate change, with multi-decadal effects that are currently poorly understood. While existing national and global land cover trajectories will play an important role in understanding these future impacts, they do not allow for investigation of many issues of interest to regional stakeholders, such as local zoning and suburban sprawl, the development of a regional food system, or varying rates of natural lands protection. Existing land cover trajectories also do not usually provide the detail needed as input drivers for earth system models, such as disaggregated vegetation types or harmonized time series of infrastructure management. We discuss the development of a simple land use/land cover allocation scheme to develop such needed trajectories, their implementation for 4 regional socioeconomic pathways developed collaboratively with regional stakeholders, and their preliminary use in regional ecosystem modeling.

Applied global health diplomacy: profile of health diplomats accredited to the UNITED STATES and foreign governments.

PubMed

Brown, Matthew D; Bergmann, Julie N; Novotny, Thomas E; Mackey, Tim K

2018-01-11

Global health diplomacy (GHD) is a burgeoning field bridging the priorities of global health and foreign affairs. Given the increasing need to mobilize disparate global health stakeholders coupled with the need to design complex public health partnerships to tackle issues of international concern, effective and timely cooperation among state actors is critical. Health Attachés represent this coordination focal point and are key diplomatic professionals at the forefront of GHD. Despite their unique mandate, little is published about this profession and the perspectives of those who work in the field. Through purposive sampling, we performed in-depth qualitative interviews with seven Health Attachés: three foreign Health Attachés accredited to the United States and four U.S. Health Attachés accredited to foreign governments. Our interviews explored four key topics: the role and mission of Health Attachés, skills needed to perform GHD, examples of successes and challenges in accomplishing their respective missions, and suggestions for the future development of the diplomatic profession. We identified several lessons to apply to the growing field of GHD. First, GHD actors need to receive appropriate training to successfully negotiate the intersection of global health and foreign affairs. Participants suggested several areas of training that would benefit GHD actors: diplomacy and negotiation, applied science, and cross-cultural competency. Second, participants articulated the need for a career path for GHD practitioners, increased opportunities for on-the-job training and mentored experiences, and GHD competencies with defined levels of mastery that can be used in occupational evaluation and career development. Our findings indicate that skills in diplomacy and negotiation, applied science, and cross cultural competency are essential for the statecraft of Health Attachés. Additionally, establishing a clear career pathway for Health Attachés is critical for future maturation of the profession and for fostering effective global health action that aligns public health and foreign diplomacy outcomes. Achieving these goals would ensure that this special cadre of diplomats could effectively practice GHD and would also better position Health Attachés to take the lead in advancing shared global health goals among nation states in a new era of twenty-first century diplomacy.

Global Futures: a multithreaded execution model for Global Arrays-based applications

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chavarría-Miranda, Daniel; Krishnamoorthy, Sriram; Vishnu, Abhinav

2012-05-31

We present Global Futures (GF), an execution model extension to Global Arrays, which is based on a PGAS-compatible Active Message-based paradigm. We describe the design and implementation of Global Futures and illustrate its use in a computational chemistry application benchmark (Hartree-Fock matrix construction using the Self-Consistent Field method). Our results show how we used GF to increase the scalability of the Hartree-Fock matrix build to up to 6,144 cores of an Infiniband cluster. We also show how GF's multithreaded execution has comparable performance to the traditional process-based SPMD model.

77 FR 30017 - International Capacity Building With Respect to Food Safety; Public Meeting; Request for Comments

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-05-21

... the global supply chain as a key Agency priority. Indeed, two recent reports have focused on the challenges of global supply chains: FDA's ``Pathway to Global Product Safety and Quality,'' and the Institute... more authorities to address the increasingly globalized food supply and prevent problems before they...

A Global Coexpression Network Approach for Connecting Genes to Specialized Metabolic Pathways in Plants

PubMed Central

Borowsky, Alexander T.

2017-01-01

Plants produce diverse specialized metabolites (SMs), but the genes responsible for their production and regulation remain largely unknown, hindering efforts to tap plant pharmacopeia. Given that genes comprising SM pathways exhibit environmentally dependent coregulation, we hypothesized that genes within a SM pathway would form tight associations (modules) with each other in coexpression networks, facilitating their identification. To evaluate this hypothesis, we used 10 global coexpression data sets, each a meta-analysis of hundreds to thousands of experiments, across eight plant species to identify hundreds of coexpressed gene modules per data set. In support of our hypothesis, 15.3 to 52.6% of modules contained two or more known SM biosynthetic genes, and module genes were enriched in SM functions. Moreover, modules recovered many experimentally validated SM pathways, including all six known to form biosynthetic gene clusters (BGCs). In contrast, bioinformatically predicted BGCs (i.e., those lacking an associated metabolite) were no more coexpressed than the null distribution for neighboring genes. These results suggest that most predicted plant BGCs are not genuine SM pathways and argue that BGCs are not a hallmark of plant specialized metabolism. We submit that global gene coexpression is a rich, largely untapped resource for discovering the genetic basis and architecture of plant natural products. PMID:28408660

Estimating Environmental Co-benefits of U.S. CO2 Reduction Pathways Using the GCAM-USA Integrated Assessment Model

EPA Science Inventory

Various technological pathways can lead to reduced CO2 emissions. However, different pathways can have substantially different impacts on other environmental endpoints, such as air quality and energy-related water demand. The Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) is a high resolu...

Whole-Genome Analysis of the SHORT-ROOT Developmental Pathway in Arabidopsis

PubMed Central

Busch, Wolfgang; Cui, Hongchang; Wang, Jean Y; Blilou, Ikram; Hassan, Hala; Nakajima, Keiji; Matsumoto, Noritaka; Lohmann, Jan U; Scheres, Ben

2006-01-01

Stem cell function during organogenesis is a key issue in developmental biology. The transcription factor SHORT-ROOT (SHR) is a critical component in a developmental pathway regulating both the specification of the root stem cell niche and the differentiation potential of a subset of stem cells in the Arabidopsis root. To obtain a comprehensive view of the SHR pathway, we used a statistical method called meta-analysis to combine the results of several microarray experiments measuring the changes in global expression profiles after modulating SHR activity. Meta-analysis was first used to identify the direct targets of SHR by combining results from an inducible form of SHR driven by its endogenous promoter, ectopic expression, followed by cell sorting and comparisons of mutant to wild-type roots. Eight putative direct targets of SHR were identified, all with expression patterns encompassing subsets of the native SHR expression domain. Further evidence for direct regulation by SHR came from binding of SHR in vivo to the promoter regions of four of the eight putative targets. A new role for SHR in the vascular cylinder was predicted from the expression pattern of several direct targets and confirmed with independent markers. The meta-analysis approach was then used to perform a global survey of the SHR indirect targets. Our analysis suggests that the SHR pathway regulates root development not only through a large transcription regulatory network but also through hormonal pathways and signaling pathways using receptor-like kinases. Taken together, our results not only identify the first nodes in the SHR pathway and a new function for SHR in the development of the vascular tissue but also reveal the global architecture of this developmental pathway. PMID:16640459

Flow pathways and nutrient transport mechanisms drive hydrochemical sensitivity to climate change across catchments with different geology and topography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crossman, J.; Futter, M. N.; Whitehead, P. G.; Stainsby, E.; Baulch, H. M.; Jin, L.; Oni, S. K.; Wilby, R. L.; Dillon, P. J.

2014-07-01

Hydrological processes determine the transport of nutrients and passage of diffuse pollution. Consequently, catchments are likely to exhibit individual hydrochemical responses (sensitivities) to climate change, which is expected to alter the timing and amount of runoff, and to impact in-stream water quality. In developing robust catchment management strategies and quantifying plausible future hydrochemical conditions it is therefore equally important to consider the potential for spatial variability in, and causal factors of, catchment sensitivity, as to explore future changes in climatic pressures. This study seeks to identify those factors which influence hydrochemical sensitivity to climate change. A perturbed physics ensemble (PPE), derived from a series of Global Climate Model (GCM) variants with specific climate sensitivities was used to project future climate change and uncertainty. Using the Integrated Catchment Model of Phosphorus Dynamics (INCA-P), we quantified potential hydrochemical responses in four neighbouring catchments (with similar land use but varying topographic and geological characteristics) in southern Ontario, Canada. Responses were assessed by comparing a 30 year baseline (1968-1997) to two future periods: 2020-2049 and 2060-2089. Although projected climate change and uncertainties were similar across these catchments, hydrochemical responses (sensitivity) were highly varied. Sensitivity was governed by soil type (influencing flow pathways) and nutrient transport mechanisms. Clay-rich catchments were most sensitive, with total phosphorus (TP) being rapidly transported to rivers via overland flow. In these catchments large annual reductions in TP loads were projected. Sensitivity in the other two catchments, dominated by sandy-loams, was lower due to a larger proportion of soil matrix flow, longer soil water residence times and seasonal variability in soil-P saturation. Here smaller changes in TP loads, predominantly increases, were projected. These results suggest that the clay content of soils could be a good indicator of the sensitivity of catchments to climatic input, and reinforces calls for catchment-specific management plans.

Flow pathways and nutrient transport mechanisms drive hydrochemical sensitivity to climate change across catchments with different geology and topography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crossman, J.; Futter, M. N.; Whitehead, P. G.; Stainsby, E.; Baulch, H. M.; Jin, L.; Oni, S. K.; Wilby, R. L.; Dillon, P. J.

2014-12-01

Hydrological processes determine the transport of nutrients and passage of diffuse pollution. Consequently, catchments are likely to exhibit individual hydrochemical responses (sensitivities) to climate change, which are expected to alter the timing and amount of runoff, and to impact in-stream water quality. In developing robust catchment management strategies and quantifying plausible future hydrochemical conditions it is therefore equally important to consider the potential for spatial variability in, and causal factors of, catchment sensitivity, as it is to explore future changes in climatic pressures. This study seeks to identify those factors which influence hydrochemical sensitivity to climate change. A perturbed physics ensemble (PPE), derived from a series of global climate model (GCM) variants with specific climate sensitivities was used to project future climate change and uncertainty. Using the INtegrated CAtchment model of Phosphorus dynamics (INCA-P), we quantified potential hydrochemical responses in four neighbouring catchments (with similar land use but varying topographic and geological characteristics) in southern Ontario, Canada. Responses were assessed by comparing a 30 year baseline (1968-1997) to two future periods: 2020-2049 and 2060-2089. Although projected climate change and uncertainties were similar across these catchments, hydrochemical responses (sensitivities) were highly varied. Sensitivity was governed by quaternary geology (influencing flow pathways) and nutrient transport mechanisms. Clay-rich catchments were most sensitive, with total phosphorus (TP) being rapidly transported to rivers via overland flow. In these catchments large annual reductions in TP loads were projected. Sensitivity in the other two catchments, dominated by sandy loams, was lower due to a larger proportion of soil matrix flow, longer soil water residence times and seasonal variability in soil-P saturation. Here smaller changes in TP loads, predominantly increases, were projected. These results suggest that the clay content of soils could be a good indicator of the sensitivity of catchments to climatic input, and reinforces calls for catchment-specific management plans.

Sustainable BECCS pathways evaluated by an integrated assessment model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kato, E.

2017-12-01

Negative emissions technologies, particularly Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS), are key components of mitigation strategies in ambitious future socioeconomic scenarios analysed by integrated assessment models. Generally, scenarios aiming to keep mean global temperature rise below 2°C above pre-industrial would require net negative carbon emissions in the end of the 21st century. Also, in the context of Paris agreement which acknowledges "a balance between anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks of greenhouse gases in the second half of this century", RD&D for the negative emissions technologies in this decade has a crucial role for the possibility of early deployment of the technology. Because of the requirement of potentially extensive use of land and water for producing the bioenergy feedstock to get the anticipated level of gross negative emissions, researches on how to develop sustainable scenarios of BECCS is needed. Here, we present BECCS deployment scenarios that consider economically viable flow of bioenergy system including power generation and conversion process to liquid and gaseous fuels for transportation and heat with consideration of sustainable global biomass use. In the modelling process, detailed bioenergy representations, i.e. various feedstock and conversion technologies with and without CCS, are implemented in an integrated assessment (IA) model GRAPE (Global Relationship Assessment to Protect the Environment). Also, to overcome a general discrepancy about assumed future agricultural yield between 'top-down' IA models and 'bottom-up' estimates, which would crucially affect the land-use pattern, we applied yields change of food and energy crops consistent with process-based biophysical crop models in consideration of changing climate conditions. Using the framework, economically viable strategy for implementing sustainable bioenergy and BECCS flow are evaluated in the scenarios targeting to keep global average temperature rise below 2°C and/or 1.5°C above pre-industrial.

Weak hydrological sensitivity to temperature change over land, independent of climate forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samset, Bjorn H.

2017-04-01

As the global surface temperature changes, so will patterns and rates of precipitation. Theoretically, these changes can be understood in terms of changes to the energy balance of the atmosphere, caused by introducing drivers of climate change such as greenhouse gases, aerosols and altered insolation. Climate models, however, disagree strongly in their prediction of precipitation changes, both for historical and future emission pathways, and per degree of surface warming in idealized experiments. The latter value, often termed the apparent hydrological sensitivity, has also been found to differ substantially between climate drivers. Here, we present the global and regional hydrological sensitivity (HS) to surface temperature changes, for perturbations to CO2, CH4, sulfate and black carbon concentrations, and solar irradiance. Based on results from 10 climate models participating in the Precipitation Driver and Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP), we show how modeled global mean precipitation increases by 2-3 % per kelvin of global mean surface warming, independent of driver, when the effects of rapid adjustments are removed. Previously reported differences in response between drivers are therefore mainly ascribable to rapid atmospheric adjustment processes. All models show a sharp contrast in behavior over land and over ocean, with a strong surface temperature driven (slow) ocean HS of 3-5 %/K, while the slow land HS is only 0-2 %/K. Separating the response into convective and large-scale cloud processes, we find larger inter-model differences, in particular over land regions. Large-scale precipitation changes are most relevant at high latitudes, while the equatorial HS is dominated by convective precipitation changes. Black carbon stands out as the driver with the largest inter-model slow HS variability, and also the strongest contrast between a weak land and strong sea response. Convective precipitation in the Arctic and large scale precipitation around the Equator are found to be topics where further model investigations and observational constraints may provide rapid improvements to modelling of the precipitation response to future, CO2 dominated climate change.

Memory underpinnings of future intentions: Would you like to see the sequel?

PubMed

Stragà, Marta; Del Missier, Fabio; Marcatto, Francesco; Ferrante, Donatella

2017-01-01

In two studies, we investigated the memory underpinnings of future intentions related to past hedonic experiences. Preceding research did not make clear whether the specific memory processes supporting the expression of intentions about the future involve global judgments of the past experience (general affective evaluations formed on-line) or judgments derived from the episodic recollection of the past. Adapting a correlational paradigm previously employed to study future intentions, and applying it to the experience of watching a movie, we comparatively tested the influence of global retrospective evaluations vs. episodic-derived evaluations on future intentions. In Study 1, in which the intentions involved a future experience that was very similar to an overall past one (e.g., seeing the movie sequel), the findings showed that participants relied only on global judgments to form future intentions. In Study 2, in which the global judgment on the past was less diagnostic because the future intentions referred to specific parts of the past experience (e.g., watching a movie centered on a minor character in the previously seen movie), the results indicated that relevant episodic memories provided an essential contribution to the prediction of future intentions. These findings are in agreement with the predictions of the accessibility-diagnosticity framework and they show that global judgments and episodic memories of a past experience contribute differentially to diverse kinds of future intentions.

Memory underpinnings of future intentions: Would you like to see the sequel?

PubMed Central

Marcatto, Francesco; Ferrante, Donatella

2017-01-01

In two studies, we investigated the memory underpinnings of future intentions related to past hedonic experiences. Preceding research did not make clear whether the specific memory processes supporting the expression of intentions about the future involve global judgments of the past experience (general affective evaluations formed on-line) or judgments derived from the episodic recollection of the past. Adapting a correlational paradigm previously employed to study future intentions, and applying it to the experience of watching a movie, we comparatively tested the influence of global retrospective evaluations vs. episodic-derived evaluations on future intentions. In Study 1, in which the intentions involved a future experience that was very similar to an overall past one (e.g., seeing the movie sequel), the findings showed that participants relied only on global judgments to form future intentions. In Study 2, in which the global judgment on the past was less diagnostic because the future intentions referred to specific parts of the past experience (e.g., watching a movie centered on a minor character in the previously seen movie), the results indicated that relevant episodic memories provided an essential contribution to the prediction of future intentions. These findings are in agreement with the predictions of the accessibility-diagnosticity framework and they show that global judgments and episodic memories of a past experience contribute differentially to diverse kinds of future intentions. PMID:28448567

Characteristic changes in heat extremes over India in response to global warming using CMIP5 model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kundeti, K.; Chang, H. H.; T V, L. K.; Desamsetti, S.; Dandi, A. R.

2017-12-01

A critical aspect of human-induced climate change is how it will affect climatological mean and extremes around the world. Summer season surface climate of the Indian sub continent is characterized by hot and humid conditions. The global warming can have profound impact on the mean climate as well as extreme weather events over India that may affect both natural and human systems significantly. In this study we examine very direct measure of the impact of climate change on human health and comfort. The Heat stress Index is the measure of combined effects of temperature and atmospheric moisture on the ability of the human body to dissipate heat. It is important to assess the future changes in the seasonal mean of heat stress index, it is also desirable to know how the future holds when it comes to extremes in temperature for a country like India where so much of outdoor activities happen both in the onshore/offshore energy sectors, extensive construction activities. This study assesses the performance of the Coupled Model Inter comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations in the present and develops future climate scenarios. The changes in heat extremes are assessed for three future periods 2016-2035, 2046-2065 and 2080-2099 with respect to 1986-2005 (base line) under two RCP's (Representative Concentrate Pathways) - RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. In view of this, we provide the expected future changes in the seasonal mean heat stress indices and also the frequency of heat stress exceeding a certain threshold relevant to Inida. Besides, we provide spatial maps of expected future changes in the heat stress index derived as a function of daily mean temperature and relative humidity and representative of human comfort having a direct bearing on the human activities. The observations show an increase in heat extremes over many parts in this region that are generally well captured by the models. The results indicate a significant change in frequency and intensity of heat extremes over many parts of this region which may have serious implications on agriculture,human health, management of urban infrastructure and water resources.

Simulations of the future precipitation climate of the Central Andes using a coupled regional climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nicholls, S.; Mohr, K. I.

2014-12-01

The meridional extent and complex orography of the South American continent contributes to a wide diversity of climate regimes ranging from hyper-arid deserts to tropical rainforests to sub-polar highland regions. Global climate models, although capable of resolving synoptic-scale South American climate features, are inadequate for fully-resolving the strong gradients between climate regimes and the complex orography which define the Tropical Andes given their low spatial and temporal resolution. Recent computational advances now make practical regional climate modeling with prognostic mesoscale atmosphere-ocean coupled models, such as the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport (COAWST) modeling system, to climate research. Previous work has shown COAWST to reasonably simulate the both the entire 2003-2004 wet season (Dec-Feb) as validated against both satellite and model analysis data. More recently, COAWST simulations have also been shown to sensibly reproduce the entire annual cycle of rainfall (Oct 2003 - Oct 2004) with historical climate model input. Using future global climate model input for COAWST, the present work involves year-long cycle spanning October to October for the years 2031, 2059, and 2087 assuming the most likely regional climate pathway (RCP): RCP 6.0. COAWST output is used to investigate how global climate change impacts the spatial distribution, precipitation rates, and diurnal cycle of precipitation patterns in the Central Andes vary in these yearly "snapshots". Initial results show little change to precipitation coverage or its diurnal cycle, however precipitation amounts did tend drier over the Brazilian Plateau and wetter over the Western Amazon and Central Andes. These results suggest potential adjustments to large-scale climate features (such as the Bolivian High).

The Pathway Coexpression Network: Revealing pathway relationships

PubMed Central

Tanzi, Rudolph E.

2018-01-01

A goal of genomics is to understand the relationships between biological processes. Pathways contribute to functional interplay within biological processes through complex but poorly understood interactions. However, limited functional references for global pathway relationships exist. Pathways from databases such as KEGG and Reactome provide discrete annotations of biological processes. Their relationships are currently either inferred from gene set enrichment within specific experiments, or by simple overlap, linking pathway annotations that have genes in common. Here, we provide a unifying interpretation of functional interaction between pathways by systematically quantifying coexpression between 1,330 canonical pathways from the Molecular Signatures Database (MSigDB) to establish the Pathway Coexpression Network (PCxN). We estimated the correlation between canonical pathways valid in a broad context using a curated collection of 3,207 microarrays from 72 normal human tissues. PCxN accounts for shared genes between annotations to estimate significant correlations between pathways with related functions rather than with similar annotations. We demonstrate that PCxN provides novel insight into mechanisms of complex diseases using an Alzheimer’s Disease (AD) case study. PCxN retrieved pathways significantly correlated with an expert curated AD gene list. These pathways have known associations with AD and were significantly enriched for genes independently associated with AD. As a further step, we show how PCxN complements the results of gene set enrichment methods by revealing relationships between enriched pathways, and by identifying additional highly correlated pathways. PCxN revealed that correlated pathways from an AD expression profiling study include functional clusters involved in cell adhesion and oxidative stress. PCxN provides expanded connections to pathways from the extracellular matrix. PCxN provides a powerful new framework for interrogation of global pathway relationships. Comprehensive exploration of PCxN can be performed at http://pcxn.org/. PMID:29554099

COMPUGIRLS: Stepping Stone to Future Computer-Based Technology Pathways

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lee, Jieun; Husman, Jenefer; Scott, Kimberly A.; Eggum-Wilkens, Natalie D.

2015-01-01

The COMPUGIRLS: Culturally relevant technology program for adolescent girls was developed to promote underrepresented girls' future possible selves and career pathways in computer-related technology fields. We hypothesized that the COMPUGIRLS would promote academic possible selves and self-regulation to achieve these possible selves. We compared…

Rock climbing: A local-global algorithm to compute minimum energy and minimum free energy pathways.

PubMed

Templeton, Clark; Chen, Szu-Hua; Fathizadeh, Arman; Elber, Ron

2017-10-21

The calculation of minimum energy or minimum free energy paths is an important step in the quantitative and qualitative studies of chemical and physical processes. The computations of these coordinates present a significant challenge and have attracted considerable theoretical and computational interest. Here we present a new local-global approach to study reaction coordinates, based on a gradual optimization of an action. Like other global algorithms, it provides a path between known reactants and products, but it uses a local algorithm to extend the current path in small steps. The local-global approach does not require an initial guess to the path, a major challenge for global pathway finders. Finally, it provides an exact answer (the steepest descent path) at the end of the calculations. Numerical examples are provided for the Mueller potential and for a conformational transition in a solvated ring system.

Possible future changes in extreme events over Northern Eurasia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Monier, Erwan; Sokolov, Andrei; Scott, Jeffery

2013-04-01

In this study, we investigate possible future climate change over Northern Eurasia and its impact on extreme events. Northern Eurasia is a major player in the global carbon budget because of boreal forests and peatlands. Circumpolar boreal forests alone contain more than five times the amount of carbon of temperate forests and almost double the amount of carbon of the world's tropical forests. Furthermore, severe permafrost degradation associated with climate change could result in peatlands releasing large amounts of carbon dioxide and methane. Meanwhile, changes in the frequency and magnitude of extreme events, such as extreme precipitation, heat waves or frost days are likely to have substantial impacts on Northern Eurasia ecosystems. For this reason, it is very important to quantify the possible climate change over Northern Eurasia under different emissions scenarios, while accounting for the uncertainty in the climate response and changes in extreme events. For several decades, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change has been investigating uncertainty in climate change using the MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) framework, an integrated assessment model that couples an earth system model of intermediate complexity (with a 2D zonal-mean atmosphere) to a human activity model. In this study, regional change is investigated using the MIT IGSM-CAM framework that links the IGSM to the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Atmosphere Model (CAM). New modules were developed and implemented in CAM to allow climate parameters to be changed to match those of the IGSM. The simulations presented in this paper were carried out for two emission scenarios, a "business as usual" scenario and a 660 ppm of CO2-equivalent stabilization, which are similar to, respectively, the Representative Concentration Pathways RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios. Values of climate sensitivity and net aerosol forcing used in the simulations within the IGSM-CAM framework provide a good approximation for the median, and the lower and upper bound of 90% probability distribution of 21st century climate change. Five member ensembles were carried out for each choice of parameters using different initial conditions. With these simulations, we investigate the role of emissions scenarios (climate policies), the global climate response (climate sensitivity) and natural variability (initial conditions) on the uncertainty in future climate changes over Northern Eurasia. A particular emphasis is made on future changes in extreme events, including frost days, extreme summer temperature and extreme summer and winter precipitation.

Expansion of the Lyme Disease Vector Ixodes scapularis in Canada inferred from CMIP5 Climate Projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McPherson, Michelle Yvonne; García-García, Almudena; José Cuesta-Valero, Francisco; Beltrami, Hugo; Hansen-Ketchum, Patti; MacDougall, Donna; Hume Ogden, Nicholas

2017-04-01

A number of studies have assessed possible climate change impacts on the Lyme disease vector, Ixodes scapularis. However, most have used surface air temperature from only one climate model simulation and/or one emission scenario, representing only one possible climate future. We quantified effects of different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) and climate model outputs on the projected future changes in the basic reproduction number (R0) of I. scapularis to explore uncertainties in future R0 estimates. We used surface air temperature generated by a complete set of General Circulation Models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to hindcast historical and forecast future effects of climate change on the R0 of I. scapularis. As in previous studies, R0 of I. scapularis increased with a warming climate under future projected climate. Increases in the multi-model mean R0 values showed significant changes over time under all RCP scenarios, however; only the estimated R0 mean values between RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 showed statistically significant differences. Our results highlight the potential for climate change to have an effect on future Lyme disease risk in Canada even if the Paris Agreement's goal to keep global warming below 2°C is achieved, although mitigation reducing emissions from RCP8.5 levels to those of RCP6.0 or less would be expected to slow tick invasion after the 2030s. On-going planning is needed to inform and guide adaptation in light of the projected range of possible futures.

Future climate and land uses effects on flow and nutrient loads of a Mediterranean catchment in South Australia.

PubMed

Shrestha, Manoj K; Recknagel, Friedrich; Frizenschaf, Jacqueline; Meyer, Wayne

2017-07-15

Mediterranean catchments experience already high seasonal variability alternating between dry and wet periods, and are more vulnerable to future climate and land use changes. Quantification of catchment response under future changes is particularly crucial for better water resources management. This study assessed the combined effects of future climate and land use changes on water yield, total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) loads of the Mediterranean Onkaparinga catchment in South Australia by means of the eco-hydrological model SWAT. Six different global climate models (GCMs) under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and a hypothetical land use change were used for future simulations. The climate models suggested a high degree of uncertainty, varying seasonally, in both flow and nutrient loads; however, a decreasing trend was observed. Average monthly TN and TP load decreased up to -55% and -56% respectively and were found to be dependent on flow magnitude. The annual and seasonal water yield and nutrient loads may only slightly be affected by envisaged land uses, but significantly altered by intermediate and high emission scenarios, predominantly during the spring season. The combined scenarios indicated the possibility of declining flow in future but nutrient enrichment in summer months, originating mainly from the land use scenario, that may elevate the risk of algal blooms in downstream drinking water reservoir. Hence, careful planning of future water resources in a Mediterranean catchment requires the assessment of combined effects of multiple climate models and land use scenarios on both water quantity and quality. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Microcanonical molecular simulations of methane hydrate nucleation and growth: evidence that direct nucleation to sI hydrate is among the multiple nucleation pathways.

PubMed

Zhang, Zhengcai; Walsh, Matthew R; Guo, Guang-Jun

2015-04-14

The results of six high-precision constant energy molecular dynamics (MD) simulations initiated from methane-water systems equilibrated at 80 MPa and 250 K indicate that methane hydrates can nucleate via multiple pathways. Five trajectories nucleate to an amorphous solid. One trajectory nucleates to a structure-I hydrate template with long-range order which spans the simulation box across periodic boundaries despite the presence of several defects. While experimental and simulation data for hydrate nucleation with different time- and length-scales suggest that there may exist multiple pathways for nucleation, including metastable intermediates and the direct formation of the globally-stable phase, this work provides the most compelling evidence that direct formation to the globally stable crystalline phase is one of the multiple pathways available for hydrate nucleation.

Effects of PDE4 Pathway Inhibition in Rat Experimental Stroke

PubMed Central

Yang, Fan; Sumbria, Rachita K.; Xue, Dong; Yu, Chuanhui; He, Dan; Liu, Shuo; Paganini-Hill, Annlia; Fisher, Mark J.

2015-01-01

PURPOSE The first genomewide association study indicated that variations in the phosphodiesterase 4D (PDE4D) gene confer risk for ischemic stroke. However, inconsistencies among the studies designed to replicate the findings indicated the need for further investigation to elucidate the role of the PDE4 pathway in stroke pathogenesis. Hence, we studied the effect of global inhibition of the PDE4 pathway in two rat experimental stroke models, using the PDE4 inhibitor rolipram. Further, the specific role of the PDE4D isoform in ischemic stroke pathogenesis was studied using PDE4D knockout rats in experimental stroke. METHODS Rats were subjected to either the ligation or embolic stroke model and treated with rolipram (3mg/kg; i.p.) prior to the ischemic insult. Similarly, the PDE4D knockout rats were subjected to experimental stroke using the embolic model. RESULTS Global inhibition of the PDE4 pathway using rolipram produced infarcts that were 225% (p<0.01) and 138% (p<0.05) of control in the ligation and embolic models, respectively. PDE4D knockout rats subjected to embolic stroke showed no change in infarct size compared to wild-type control. CONCLUSIONS Despite increase in infarct size after global inhibition of the PDE4 pathway with rolipram, specific inhibition of the PDE4D isoform had no effect on experimental stroke. These findings support a role for the PDE4 pathway, independent of the PDE4D isoform, in ischemic stroke pathogenesis. PMID:25224348

Genomic Reconstruction of Carbohydrate Utilization Capacities in Microbial-Mat Derived Consortia

PubMed Central

Leyn, Semen A.; Maezato, Yukari; Romine, Margaret F.; Rodionov, Dmitry A.

2017-01-01

Two nearly identical unicyanobacterial consortia (UCC) were previously isolated from benthic microbial mats that occur in a heliothermal saline lake in northern Washington State. Carbohydrates are a primary source of carbon and energy for most heterotrophic bacteria. Since CO2 is the only carbon source provided, the cyanobacterium must provide a source of carbon to the heterotrophs. Available genomic sequences for all members of the UCC provide opportunity to investigate the metabolic routes of carbon transfer between autotroph and heterotrophs. Here, we applied a subsystem-based comparative genomics approach to reconstruct carbohydrate utilization pathways and identify glycohydrolytic enzymes, carbohydrate transporters and pathway-specific transcriptional regulators in 17 heterotrophic members of the UCC. The reconstructed metabolic pathways include 800 genes, near a one-fourth of which encode enzymes, transporters and regulators with newly assigned metabolic functions resulting in discovery of novel functional variants of carbohydrate utilization pathways. The in silico analysis revealed the utilization capabilities for 40 carbohydrates and their derivatives. Two Halomonas species demonstrated the largest number of sugar catabolic pathways. Trehalose, sucrose, maltose, glucose, and beta-glucosides are the most commonly utilized saccharides in this community. Reconstructed regulons for global regulators HexR and CceR include central carbohydrate metabolism genes in the members of Gammaproteobacteria and Alphaproteobacteria, respectively. Genomics analyses were supplemented by experimental characterization of metabolic phenotypes in four isolates derived from the consortia. Measurements of isolate growth on the defined medium supplied with individual carbohydrates confirmed most of the predicted catabolic phenotypes. Not all consortia members use carbohydrates and only a few use complex polysaccharides suggesting a hierarchical carbon flow from cyanobacteria to each heterotroph. In summary, the genomics-based identification of carbohydrate utilization capabilities provides a basis for future experimental studies of carbon flow in UCC. PMID:28751880

Reductions in labour capacity from heat stress under climate warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dunne, John P.; Stouffer, Ronald J.; John, Jasmin G.

2013-06-01

A fundamental aspect of greenhouse-gas-induced warming is a global-scale increase in absolute humidity. Under continued warming, this response has been shown to pose increasingly severe limitations on human activity in tropical and mid-latitudes during peak months of heat stress. One heat-stress metric with broad occupational health applications is wet-bulb globe temperature. We combine wet-bulb globe temperatures from global climate historical reanalysis and Earth System Model (ESM2M) projections with industrial and military guidelines for an acclimated individual's occupational capacity to safely perform sustained labour under environmental heat stress (labour capacity)--here defined as a global population-weighted metric temporally fixed at the 2010 distribution. We estimate that environmental heat stress has reduced labour capacity to 90% in peak months over the past few decades. ESM2M projects labour capacity reduction to 80% in peak months by 2050. Under the highest scenario considered (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5), ESM2M projects labour capacity reduction to less than 40% by 2200 in peak months, with most tropical and mid-latitudes experiencing extreme climatological heat stress. Uncertainties and caveats associated with these projections include climate sensitivity, climate warming patterns, CO2 emissions, future population distributions, and technological and societal change.

Constraints on global temperature target overshoot

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

MacMartin, D. G.; Ricke, K.; Millar, R.

2016-12-01

The climate science and policy communities are beginning to assess the feasibility and potential benefits of limiting global warming to 1.5°C or 2°C. Understanding the dependence of the magnitude and duration of possible temporary exceedance (i.e., "overshoot") of these targets on sustainable energy decarbonization futures and carbon dioxide (CO2) removal rates will be an important contribution of the scientific community to this policy discussion. Drawing upon results from the mitigation literature and the IPCC Working Group 3 (WG3) scenario database, we examine the global mean temperature implications of differing independent pathways for the decarbonization of global energy supply and the implementation of negative emissions technologies. We find that within the range of decarbonization and negative emissions futures considered by WG3, the most ambitious rates of both decarbonization and deployment of negative emissions technologies are required to avoid overshoot of 1.5°C. The magnitude of temperature overshoot is more sensitive to the rate of decarbonization, but limiting the duration of overshoot to less than two centuries will require ambitious deployment of both decarbonization and negative emissions technology. The dependencies of temperature overshoots properties upon currently untested negative emissions technologies suggests that it will be important to assess how climate impacts depend on the magnitude and duration of overshoot, not just long term residual warming. As a new round of research proceeds with a 1.5°C threshold in mind, it will be important to understand the drivers behind various global temperature linked impacts and how these are influenced by both the duration and magnitude of a temporary overshoot of the target. This understanding will allow policy makers to better link climate policy goals to specific technological needs. Figure: Magnitude and duration of 1.5°C temperature target overshoot for "likely" range of climate response. Contours show the maximum magnitude (in °C) and duration (in years) of the period of overshoot beyond 1.5°C as a function of decarbonization and negative emissions implementation. White areas show scenario spaces with no overshoot, and stippled areas scenario spaces where the quantity is still undefined in 2300.

Estimating environmental co-benefits of U.S. GHG reduction pathways using the GCAM-USA Integrated Assessment Model (A&WMA Presentation)

EPA Science Inventory

A variety of technological pathways lead to reduced greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. However, different pathways can have substantially different impacts on other environmental endpoints, such as air quality and energy-related water demand. In this study we use the Global Change ...

Mechanisms for the inversion of chirality: Global reaction route mapping of stereochemical pathways in a probable chiral extraterrestrial molecule, 2-aminopropionitrile

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kaur, Ramanpreet; Vikas, E-mail: qlabspu@pu.ac.in, E-mail: qlabspu@yahoo.com

2015-02-21

2-Aminopropionitrile (APN), a probable candidate as a chiral astrophysical molecule, is a precursor to amino-acid alanine. Stereochemical pathways in 2-APN are explored using Global Reaction Route Mapping (GRRM) method employing high-level quantum-mechanical computations. Besides predicting the conventional mechanism for chiral inversion that proceeds through an achiral intermediate, a counterintuitive flipping mechanism is revealed for 2-APN through chiral intermediates explored using the GRRM. The feasibility of the proposed stereochemical pathways, in terms of the Gibbs free-energy change, is analyzed at the temperature conditions akin to the interstellar medium. Notably, the stereoinversion in 2-APN is observed to be more feasible than themore » dissociation of 2-APN and intermediates involved along the stereochemical pathways, and the flipping barrier is observed to be as low as 3.68 kJ/mol along one of the pathways. The pathways proposed for the inversion of chirality in 2-APN may provide significant insight into the extraterrestrial origin of life.« less

Impact of volcanic aerosols on stratospheric ozone recovery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Naik, Vaishali; Horowitz, Larry W.; Daniel Schwarzkopf, M.; Lin, Meiyun

2017-09-01

We use transient GFDL-CM3 chemistry-climate model simulations over the 2006-2100 period to show how the influence of volcanic aerosols on the extent and timing of ozone recovery varies with (a) future greenhouse gas scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP)4.5 and RCP8.5) and (b) halogen loading. Current understanding is that elevated volcanic aerosols reduce ozone under high halogen loading but increase ozone under low halogen loading when the chemistry is more NOx dominated. With extremely low aerosol loadings (designated here as "background"), global stratospheric ozone burden is simulated to return to 1980 levels around 2050 in the RCP8.5 scenario but remains below 1980 levels throughout the 21st century in the RCP4.5 scenario. In contrast, with elevated volcanic aerosols, ozone column recovers more quickly to 1980 levels, with recovery dates ranging from the mid-2040s in RCP8.5 to the mid-2050s to early 2070s in RCP4.5. The ozone response in both future emission scenarios increases with enhanced volcanic aerosols. By 2100, the 1980 baseline-adjusted global stratospheric ozone column is projected to be 20-40% greater in RCP8.5 and 110-200% greater in RCP4.5 with elevated volcanic aerosols compared to simulations with the extremely low background aerosols. The weaker ozone enhancement at 2100 in RCP8.5 than in RCP4.5 in response to elevated volcanic aerosols is due to a factor of 2.5 greater methane in RCP8.5 compared with RCP4.5. Our results demonstrate the substantial uncertainties in stratospheric ozone projections and expected recovery dates induced by volcanic aerosol perturbations that need to be considered in future model ozone projections.

A 1,000 GtC Coal Question for Future Energy Scenarios: How Much Coal Will Renewables Need to Displace?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ritchie, W. J.; Dowlatabadi, H.

2016-12-01

Twenty years ago, global coal assessments indicated reserve-to-production (R-P) ratios of more than 300 years. Consequently, most studies of energy futures established coal as a virtually unlimited backstop to meet the world's projected energy needs. Coal was modeled to offset oil and gas production declines and provide a source of energy which renewables and lower carbon supply strategies needed to outcompete. Over the past two decades, increasingly consistent methodologies have been applied globally to assess recoverable coal. Coal production has also witnessed significant mechanization to meet higher demand. Each of these has led to a significant reduction in estimates of economically recoverable coal reserves despite a doubling of market prices over this period. The current reserve to production ratio for coal is now around 100 years. It is time to reconsider coal as the inexhaustible energy backstop The energy models which develop long-term estimates of renewable energy needs and projections of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions still adopt the characteristics of vintage coal assessments. By convention, baseline GHG emissions used by the IPCC and others, project combustion of most known coal reserves before the year 2100. When vintage assessments are used, this involves extraction of all currently known coal reserves plus twice again from resources invalidated as recoverable for geologic, environmental, social, legal, technical or economic reasons. We provide evidence for rejecting these projections of unbounded growth in coal consumption. Legacy pathways of implausibly high coal use upwardly bias long-term scenarios for total cumulative GHG emissions and subsequent research on climate change. This bias has precluded consideration of much more ambitious climate mitigation targets without significant socio-economic dislocation and unnecessarily diminishes possible future contributions from renewables.

Global Warming Impacts on Heating and Cooling Degree-Days in the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petri, Y.; Caldeira, K.

2014-12-01

Anthropogenic climate change is expected to significantly alter residential air conditioning and space heating requirements, which account for 41% of U.S. household energy expenditures. The degree-day method can be used for reliable estimation of weather related building energy consumption and costs, as well as outdoor climatic thermal comfort. Here, we use U.S. Climate Normals developed by NOAA based on weather station observations along with Climate Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) multi-model ensemble simulations. We add the projected change in heating and cooling degree-days based on the climate models to the estimates based on the NOAA U.S. Climate Normals to project future heating and cooling degree-days. We find locations with the lowest and highest combined index of cooling (CDDs) and heating degree-days (HDDs) for the historical period (1981 - 2010) and future period (2080 - 2099) under the Representation Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) climate change scenario. Our results indicate that in both time frames and among the lower 48 states, coastal areas in the West and South California will have the smallest degree-day sum (CDD + HDD), and hence from a climatic perspective become the best candidates for residential real estate. The Rocky Mountains region in Wyoming, in addition to northern Minnesota and North Dakota, will have the greatest CDD + HDD. While global warming is projected to reduce the median heating and cooling demand (- 5%) at the end of the century, CDD + HDD will decrease in the North, with an opposite effect in the South. This work could be helpful in deciding where to live in the United States based on present and future thermal comfort, and could also provide a basis for estimates of changes in heating and cooling energy demand.

Future risk assessment by estimating historical heat wave trends with projected heat accumulation using SimCLIM climate model in Pakistan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nasim, Wajid; Amin, Asad; Fahad, Shah; Awais, Muhammad; Khan, Naeem; Mubeen, Muhammad; Wahid, Abdul; Turan, Veysel; Rehman, Muhammad Habibur; Ihsan, Muhammad Zahid; Ahmad, Shakeel; Hussain, Sajjad; Mian, Ishaq Ahmad; Khan, Bushra; Jamal, Yousaf

2018-06-01

Climate change has adverse effects at global, regional and local level. Heat wave events have serious contribution for global warming and natural hazards in Pakistan. Historical (1997-2015) heat wave were analyzed over different provinces (Punjab, Sindh and Baluchistan) of Pakistan to identify the maximum temperature trend. Heat accumulation in Pakistan were simulated by the General Circulation Model (GCM) combined with 3 GHG (Green House Gases) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) (RCP-4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) by using SimCLIM model (statistical downscaling model for future trend projections). Heat accumulation was projected for year 2030, 2060, and 2090 for seasonal and annual analysis in Pakistan. Heat accumulation were projected to increase by the baseline year (1995) was represented in percentage change. Projection shows that Sindh and southern Punjab was mostly affected by heat accumulation. This study identified the rising trend of heat wave over the period (1997-2015) for Punjab, Sindh and Baluchistan (provinces of Pakistan), which identified that most of the meteorological stations in Punjab and Sindh are highly prone to heat waves. According to model projection; future trend of annual heat accumulation, in 2030 was increased 17%, 26%, and 32% but for 2060 the trends were reported by 54%, 49%, and 86% for 2090 showed highest upto 62%, 75%, and 140% for RCP-4.5, RCP-6.0, and RCP-8.5, respectively. While seasonal trends of heat accumulation were projected to maximum values for monsoon and followed by pre-monsoon and post monsoon. Heat accumulation in monsoon may affect the agricultural activities in the region under study.

Bacterial differentiation via gradual activation of global regulators.

PubMed

Kovács, Ákos T

2016-02-01

Bacteria have evolved to adapt to various conditions and respond to certain stress conditions. The ability to sense and efficiently reply to these environmental effects involve versatile array of sensors and global or specific regulators. Interestingly, modulation of the levels of active global regulators enables bacteria to respond to diverse signals via a single central transcriptional regulator and to activate or repress certain differentiation pathways at a spatio-temporal manner. The Gram-positive Bacillus subtilis is an ideal bacterium to study how membrane bound and cytoplasmic sensor kinases affect the level of phosphorylated global regulator, Spo0A which in response activates genes related to sliding, biofilm formation, and sporulation. In addition, other global regulators, including the two-component system DegS-DegU, modulate overlapping and complementary genes in B. subtilis related to surface colonization and biofilm formation. The intertwinement of global regulatory systems also allows the accurate modulation of differentiation pathways. Studies in the last decade enable us to get a deeper insight into the role of global regulators on the smooth transition of developmental processes in B. subtilis.

21st Century Changes in Precipitation Extremes Based on Resolved Atmospheric Patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, X.; Schlosser, C. A.; O'Gorman, P. A.; Monier, E.

2014-12-01

Global warming is expected to alter the frequency and/or magnitude of extreme precipitation events. Such changes could have substantial ecological, economic, and sociological consequences. However, climate models in general do not correctly reproduce the frequency distribution of precipitation, especially at the regional scale. In this study, a validated analogue method is employed to diagnose the potential future shifts in the probability of extreme precipitation over the United States under global warming. The method is based on the use of the resolved large-scale meteorological conditions (i.e. flow features, moisture supply) to detect the occurrence of extreme precipitation. The CMIP5 multi-model projections have been compiled for two radiative forcing scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5). We further analyze the accompanying circulation features and their changes that may be responsible for shifts in extreme precipitation in response to changed climate. The application of such analogue method to detect other types of hazard events, i.e. landslides is also explored. The results from this study may guide hazardous weather watches and help society develop adaptive strategies for preventing catastrophic losses.

Global insights into acetic acid resistance mechanisms and genetic stability of Acetobacter pasteurianus strains by comparative genomics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Bin; Shao, Yanchun; Chen, Tao; Chen, Wanping; Chen, Fusheng

2015-12-01

Acetobacter pasteurianus (Ap) CICC 20001 and CGMCC 1.41 are two acetic acid bacteria strains that, because of their strong abilities to produce and tolerate high concentrations of acetic acid, have been widely used to brew vinegar in China. To globally understand the fermentation characteristics, acid-tolerant mechanisms and genetic stabilities, their genomes were sequenced. Genomic comparisons with 9 other sequenced Ap strains revealed that their chromosomes were evolutionarily conserved, whereas the plasmids were unique compared with other Ap strains. Analysis of the acid-tolerant metabolic pathway at the genomic level indicated that the metabolism of some amino acids and the known mechanisms of acetic acid tolerance, might collaboratively contribute to acetic acid resistance in Ap strains. The balance of instability factors and stability factors in the genomes of Ap CICC 20001 and CGMCC 1.41 strains might be the basis for their genetic stability, consistent with their stable industrial performances. These observations provide important insights into the acid resistance mechanism and the genetic stability of Ap strains and lay a foundation for future genetic manipulation and engineering of these two strains.

Global insights into acetic acid resistance mechanisms and genetic stability of Acetobacter pasteurianus strains by comparative genomics.

PubMed

Wang, Bin; Shao, Yanchun; Chen, Tao; Chen, Wanping; Chen, Fusheng

2015-12-22

Acetobacter pasteurianus (Ap) CICC 20001 and CGMCC 1.41 are two acetic acid bacteria strains that, because of their strong abilities to produce and tolerate high concentrations of acetic acid, have been widely used to brew vinegar in China. To globally understand the fermentation characteristics, acid-tolerant mechanisms and genetic stabilities, their genomes were sequenced. Genomic comparisons with 9 other sequenced Ap strains revealed that their chromosomes were evolutionarily conserved, whereas the plasmids were unique compared with other Ap strains. Analysis of the acid-tolerant metabolic pathway at the genomic level indicated that the metabolism of some amino acids and the known mechanisms of acetic acid tolerance, might collaboratively contribute to acetic acid resistance in Ap strains. The balance of instability factors and stability factors in the genomes of Ap CICC 20001 and CGMCC 1.41 strains might be the basis for their genetic stability, consistent with their stable industrial performances. These observations provide important insights into the acid resistance mechanism and the genetic stability of Ap strains and lay a foundation for future genetic manipulation and engineering of these two strains.

New insights into mechanisms driving carbon allocation in tropical forests.

PubMed

Hofhansl, Florian; Schnecker, Jörg; Singer, Gabriel; Wanek, Wolfgang

2015-01-01

The proportion of carbon allocated to wood production is an important determinant of the carbon sink strength of global forest ecosystems. Understanding the mechanisms controlling wood production and its responses to environmental drivers is essential for parameterization of global vegetation models and to accurately predict future responses of tropical forests in terms of carbon sequestration. Here, we synthesize data from 105 pantropical old-growth rainforests to investigate environmental controls on the partitioning of net primary production to wood production (%WP) using structural equation modeling. Our results reveal that %WP is governed by two independent pathways of direct and indirect environmental controls. While temperature and soil phosphorus availability indirectly affected %WP via increasing productivity, precipitation and dry season length both directly increased %WP via tradeoffs along the plant economics spectrum. We provide new insights into the mechanisms driving %WP, allowing us to conclude that projected climate change could enhance %WP in less productive tropical forests, thus increasing carbon sequestration in montane forests, but adversely affecting lowland forests. © 2014 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2014 New Phytologist Trust.

Impacts of climate mitigation strategies in the energy sector on global land use and carbon balance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Engström, Kerstin; Lindeskog, Mats; Olin, Stefan; Hassler, John; Smith, Benjamin

2017-09-01

Reducing greenhouse gas emissions to limit damage to the global economy climate-change-induced and secure the livelihoods of future generations requires ambitious mitigation strategies. The introduction of a global carbon tax on fossil fuels is tested here as a mitigation strategy to reduce atmospheric CO2 concentrations and radiative forcing. Taxation of fossil fuels potentially leads to changed composition of energy sources, including a larger relative contribution from bioenergy. Further, the introduction of a mitigation strategy reduces climate-change-induced damage to the global economy, and thus can indirectly affect consumption patterns and investments in agricultural technologies and yield enhancement. Here we assess the implications of changes in bioenergy demand as well as the indirectly caused changes in consumption and crop yields for global and national cropland area and terrestrial biosphere carbon balance. We apply a novel integrated assessment modelling framework, combining three previously published models (a climate-economy model, a socio-economic land use model and an ecosystem model). We develop reference and mitigation scenarios based on the narratives and key elements of the shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs). Taking emissions from the land use sector into account, we find that the introduction of a global carbon tax on the fossil fuel sector is an effective mitigation strategy only for scenarios with low population development and strong sustainability criteria (SSP1 Taking the green road). For scenarios with high population growth, low technological development and bioenergy production the high demand for cropland causes the terrestrial biosphere to switch from being a carbon sink to a source by the end of the 21st century.

Future perspective and healthy lifestyle choices in adulthood.

PubMed

Tasdemir-Ozdes, Aylin; Strickland-Hughes, Carla M; Bluck, Susan; Ebner, Natalie C

2016-09-01

Regardless of age, making healthy lifestyle choices is prudent. Despite that, individuals of all ages sometimes have difficulty choosing the healthy option. We argue that individuals' view of the future and position in the life span affects their current lifestyle choices. We capture the multidimensionality of future thinking by assessing 3 types of future perspective. Younger and older men and women (N = 127) reported global future time perspective, future health perspective, and perceived importance of future health-related events. They also rated their likelihood of making healthy lifestyle choices. As predicted, older participants indicated greater intention to make healthy choices in their current life than did younger participants. Compared to younger participants, older participants reported shorter global future time perspective and anticipated worse future health but perceived future health-related events as more important. Having a positive view of one's future health and seeing future health-related events as important were related to greater intention to make healthy lifestyle choices, but greater global future time perspective was not directly related to healthy choices. However, follow-up analyses suggested that greater global future time perspective indirectly affected healthy choices via a more positive view of future health. None of these relations were moderated by age. Individuals' perspective on the future is shown to be an important multidimensional construct affecting everyday healthy lifestyle choices for both younger and older adults. Implications for encouraging healthy choices across the adult life span are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Regional climate of the Subtropical Central Andes using high-resolution CMIP5 models. Part II: future projections for the twenty-first century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zazulie, Natalia; Rusticucci, Matilde; Raga, Graciela B.

2017-12-01

In Part I of our study (Zazulie et al. Clim Dyn, 2017, hereafter Z17) we analyzed the ability of a subset of fifteen high-resolution global climate models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 to reproduce the past climate of the Subtropical Central Andes (SCA) of Argentina and Chile. A subset of only five GCMs was shown to reproduce well the past climate (1980-2005), for austral summer and winter. In this study we analyze future climate projections for the twenty-first century over this complex orography region using those five GCMs. We evaluate the projections under two of the representative concentration pathways considered as future scenarios: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Future projections indicate warming during the twenty-first century over the SCA region, especially pronounced over the mountains. Projections of warming at high elevations in the SCA depend on altitude, and are larger than the projected global mean warming. This phenomenon is expected to strengthen by the end of the century under the high-emission scenario. Increases in winter temperatures of up to 2.5 °C, relative to 1980-2005, are projected by 2040-2065, while a 5 °C warming is expected at the highest elevations by 2075-2100. Such a large monthly-mean warming during winter would most likely result in snowpack melting by late winter-early spring, with serious implication for water availability during summer, when precipitation is a minimum over the mountains. We also explore changes in the albedo, as a contributing factor affecting the net flux of energy at the surface and found a reduction in albedo of 20-60% at high elevations, related to the elevation dependent warming. Furthermore, a decrease in winter precipitation is projected in central Chile by the end of the century, independent of the scenario considered.

Past and future evolution of Abies alba forests in Europe - comparison of a dynamic vegetation model with palaeo data and observations.

PubMed

Ruosch, Melanie; Spahni, Renato; Joos, Fortunat; Henne, Paul D; van der Knaap, Willem O; Tinner, Willy

2016-02-01

Information on how species distributions and ecosystem services are impacted by anthropogenic climate change is important for adaptation planning. Palaeo data suggest that Abies alba formed forests under significantly warmer-than-present conditions in Europe and might be a native substitute for widespread drought-sensitive temperate and boreal tree species such as beech (Fagus sylvatica) and spruce (Picea abies) under future global warming conditions. Here, we combine pollen and macrofossil data, modern observations, and results from transient simulations with the LPX-Bern dynamic global vegetation model to assess past and future distributions of A. alba in Europe. LPX-Bern is forced with climate anomalies from a run over the past 21 000 years with the Community Earth System Model, modern climatology, and with 21st-century multimodel ensemble results for the high-emission RCP8.5 and the stringent mitigation RCP2.6 pathway. The simulated distribution for present climate encompasses the modern range of A. alba, with the model exceeding the present distribution in north-western and southern Europe. Mid-Holocene pollen data and model results agree for southern Europe, suggesting that at present, human impacts suppress the distribution in southern Europe. Pollen and model results both show range expansion starting during the Bølling-Allerød warm period, interrupted by the Younger Dryas cold, and resuming during the Holocene. The distribution of A. alba expands to the north-east in all future scenarios, whereas the potential (currently unrealized) range would be substantially reduced in southern Europe under RCP8.5. A. alba maintains its current range in central Europe despite competition by other thermophilous tree species. Our combined palaeoecological and model evidence suggest that A. alba may ensure important ecosystem services including stand and slope stability, infrastructure protection, and carbon sequestration under significantly warmer-than-present conditions in central Europe. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Applicability of a high-throughput shotgun plasma protein screening approach in understanding maternal biological pathways relevant to infant birth weight outcome.

PubMed

Kumarathasan, P; Vincent, R; Das, D; Mohottalage, S; Blais, E; Blank, K; Karthikeyan, S; Vuong, N Q; Arbuckle, T E; Fraser, W D

2014-04-04

There are reports linking maternal nutritional status, smoking and environmental chemical exposures to adverse pregnancy outcomes. However, biological bases for association between some of these factors and birth outcomes are yet to be established. The objective of this preliminary work is to test the capability of a new high-throughput shotgun plasma proteomic screening in identifying maternal changes relevant to pregnancy outcome. A subset of third trimester plasma samples (N=12) associated with normal and low-birth weight infants were fractionated, tryptic-digested and analyzed for global proteomic changes using a MALDI-TOF-TOF-MS methodology. Mass spectral data were mined for candidate biomarkers using bioinformatic and statistical tools. Maternal plasma profiles of cytokines (e.g. IL8, TNF-α), chemokines (e.g. MCP-1) and cardiovascular endpoints (e.g. ET-1, MMP-9) were analyzed by a targeted approach using multiplex protein array and HPLC-Fluorescence methods. Target and global plasma proteomic markers were used to identify protein interaction networks and maternal biological pathways relevant to low infant birth weight. Our results exhibited the potential to discriminate specific maternal physiologies relevant to risk of adverse birth outcomes. This proteomic approach can be valuable in understanding the impacts of maternal factors such as environmental contaminant exposures and nutrition on birth outcomes in future work. We demonstrate here the fitness of mass spectrometry-based shot-gun proteomics for surveillance of biological changes in mothers, and for adverse pathway analysis in combination with target biomarker information. This approach has potential for enabling early detection of mothers at risk for low infant birth weight and preterm birth, and thus early intervention for mitigation and prevention of adverse pregnancy outcomes. This article is part of a Special Issue entitled: Can Proteomics Fill the Gap Between Genomics and Phenotypes? Copyright © 2013 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Detection and quantification by deformation imaging of the functional impact of septal compared to free wall preexcitation in the Wolff-Parkinson-White syndrome.

PubMed

De Boeck, Bart W L; Teske, Arco J; Leenders, Geert E; Mohamed Hoesein, Firdaus A A; Loh, Peter; van Driel, Vincent J; Doevendans, Pieter A; Prinzen, Frits W; Cramer, Maarten J

2010-08-15

Pacing experiments in healthy animal hearts have suggested a larger detrimental effect of septal compared to free wall preexcitation. We investigated the intrinsic relation among the site of electrical preexcitation, mechanical dyssynchrony, and dysfunction in human patients. In 33 patients with Wolff-Parkinson-White (WPW) syndrome and 18 controls, regional myocardial deformation was assessed by speckle tracking mapping (ST-Map) to assess the preexcitation site, shortening sequences and dyssynchrony, and the extent of local and global ejecting shortening. The ST-Map data in patients with accessory atrioventricular pathways correctly diagnosed as located in the interventricular septum (IVS) (n = 11) or left ventricular free wall (LFW) (n = 12) were compared to the corresponding control values. A local ejecting shortening of <2 SD of the control values identified hypokinetic segments. The localization of the atrioventricular pathways by ST-Map matched with the invasive electrophysiology findings in 23 of 33 patients and was one segment different in 5 of 33 patients. In both WPW-IVS and WPW-LFW, local ejecting shortening was impaired at the preexcitation site (p <0.01). However, at similar electrical and mechanical dyssynchrony, WPW-IVS had more extensive hypokinesia than did WPW-LFW (3.6 +/- 0.9 vs 1.8 +/- 1.3 segments, p <0.01). Compared to controls, the left ventricular function was significantly reduced only in WPW-IVS (global ejecting shortening 17 +/- 2% vs 19 +/- 2%, p = 0.01; ejection fraction 55 +/- 5% vs 59 +/- 3%, p = 0.02). In conclusion, preexcitation is associated with local hypokinesia, which at comparable preexcitation is more extensive in WPW-IVS than in WPW-LFW and could adversely affect ventricular function. ST-Map might have a future role in detecting and guiding treatment of septal pathways with significant mechanical effects.

Global Change and Our Common Future: Papers from a Forum. Papers from the Committee on Global Change, National Research Council, 1989.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

DeFries, Ruth S., Ed.; Malone, Thomas F., Ed.

This volume of papers includes 21 of the 38 presentations given at the Forum on Global Change and Our Common Future. The objectives of the forum were threefold: (1) to present to the public a balanced and authoritative view of the wide range of global change issues, including the science of the earth system, the impacts of global change on…

Offshore Wind Energy Climate Projection Using UPSCALE Climate Data under the RCP8.5 Emission Scenario

PubMed Central

Gross, Markus; Magar, Vanesa

2016-01-01

In previous work, the authors demonstrated how data from climate simulations can be utilized to estimate regional wind power densities. In particular, it was shown that the quality of wind power densities, estimated from the UPSCALE global dataset in offshore regions of Mexico, compared well with regional high resolution studies. Additionally, a link between surface temperature and moist air density in the estimates was presented. UPSCALE is an acronym for UK on PRACE (the Partnership for Advanced Computing in Europe)—weather-resolving Simulations of Climate for globAL Environmental risk. The UPSCALE experiment was performed in 2012 by NCAS (National Centre for Atmospheric Science)-Climate, at the University of Reading and the UK Met Office Hadley Centre. The study included a 25.6-year, five-member ensemble simulation of the HadGEM3 global atmosphere, at 25km resolution for present climate conditions. The initial conditions for the ensemble runs were taken from consecutive days of a test configuration. In the present paper, the emphasis is placed on the single climate run for a potential future climate scenario in the UPSCALE experiment dataset, using the Representation Concentrations Pathways (RCP) 8.5 climate change scenario. Firstly, some tests were performed to ensure that the results using only one instantiation of the current climate dataset are as robust as possible within the constraints of the available data. In order to achieve this, an artificial time series over a longer sampling period was created. Then, it was shown that these longer time series provided almost the same results than the short ones, thus leading to the argument that the short time series is sufficient to capture the climate. Finally, with the confidence that one instantiation is sufficient, the future climate dataset was analysed to provide, for the first time, a projection of future changes in wind power resources using the UPSCALE dataset. It is hoped that this, in turn, will provide some guidance for wind power developers and policy makers to prepare and adapt for climate change impacts on wind energy production. Although offshore locations around Mexico were used as a case study, the dataset is global and hence the methodology presented can be readily applied at any desired location. PMID:27788208

Offshore Wind Energy Climate Projection Using UPSCALE Climate Data under the RCP8.5 Emission Scenario.

PubMed

Gross, Markus; Magar, Vanesa

2016-01-01

In previous work, the authors demonstrated how data from climate simulations can be utilized to estimate regional wind power densities. In particular, it was shown that the quality of wind power densities, estimated from the UPSCALE global dataset in offshore regions of Mexico, compared well with regional high resolution studies. Additionally, a link between surface temperature and moist air density in the estimates was presented. UPSCALE is an acronym for UK on PRACE (the Partnership for Advanced Computing in Europe)-weather-resolving Simulations of Climate for globAL Environmental risk. The UPSCALE experiment was performed in 2012 by NCAS (National Centre for Atmospheric Science)-Climate, at the University of Reading and the UK Met Office Hadley Centre. The study included a 25.6-year, five-member ensemble simulation of the HadGEM3 global atmosphere, at 25km resolution for present climate conditions. The initial conditions for the ensemble runs were taken from consecutive days of a test configuration. In the present paper, the emphasis is placed on the single climate run for a potential future climate scenario in the UPSCALE experiment dataset, using the Representation Concentrations Pathways (RCP) 8.5 climate change scenario. Firstly, some tests were performed to ensure that the results using only one instantiation of the current climate dataset are as robust as possible within the constraints of the available data. In order to achieve this, an artificial time series over a longer sampling period was created. Then, it was shown that these longer time series provided almost the same results than the short ones, thus leading to the argument that the short time series is sufficient to capture the climate. Finally, with the confidence that one instantiation is sufficient, the future climate dataset was analysed to provide, for the first time, a projection of future changes in wind power resources using the UPSCALE dataset. It is hoped that this, in turn, will provide some guidance for wind power developers and policy makers to prepare and adapt for climate change impacts on wind energy production. Although offshore locations around Mexico were used as a case study, the dataset is global and hence the methodology presented can be readily applied at any desired location.

Estimation of landslides activities evolution due to land-use and climate change in a Pyrenean valley

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vandromme, Rosalie; Bernardie, Séverine; Houet, Thomas; Grémont, Marine; Grandjean, Gilles; Thiery, Yannick

2016-04-01

Global changes would have impacts worldwide, but their effects should be even more exacerbated in areas particularly vulnerable. Mountainous areas are among these vulnerable territories. Ecological systems are often at a fragile equilibrium, socio-economical activities are often climate-dependent and climate-driven natural hazards can be a major threat for human activities. In order to estimate the capacity of such mountainous valleys to face global changes (climate, but also climate- and human- induced land-use changes), it is necessary to be able to evaluate the evolution of the different threats. The present work shows a method to evaluate the influences of the evolution of both vegetation cover and climate on landslides activities over a whole valley until 2100, to propose adequate solutions for current and future forestry management. Firstly, the assessment of future land use is addressed through the construction of four prospective socio-economic scenarios up to 2050 and 2100, which are then spatially validated and modeled with LUCC models. Secondly, the climate change inputs of the project correspond to 2 scenarios of emission of greenhouse gases. The used simulations available on the portal DRIAS (http://www.drias-climat.fr) were performed with the GHG emissions scenarios (RCP: Representative concentration pathways, according to the standards defined by the GIEC) RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. The impact of land use and climate change is then addressed through the use of these scenarios into hazards computations. For that we use a large-scale slope stability assessment tool ALICE which combines a mechanical stability model (using finite slope analysis), a vegetation module which interfere with the first model, to take into account the effects of vegetation on the mechanical soil properties (cohesion and over-load), and an hydrogeological model. All these elements are interfaced within a GIS-based solution. In that way, future changes in temperature, precipitation and vegetation cover are analyzed, permitting to address the direct and indirect impacts of global change on mountain societies. The whole chain is applied to a 100-km² Pyrenean Valley, for the ANR Project SAMCO (Society Adaptation for coping with Mountain risks in a global change COntext), as a first step in the chain for risk assessment for different climate and economical development scenarios, to evaluate the resilience of mountainous areas.

The Future of Education for All as a Global Regime of Educational Governance

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tikly, Leon

2017-01-01

The article considers the future of Education for All (EFA) understood as a global regime of educational governance. The article sets out an understanding of global governance, world order, power, and legitimacy within which EFA is embedded. It explains what is meant by EFA as a regime of global governance and as part of a "regime…

A Global Coexpression Network Approach for Connecting Genes to Specialized Metabolic Pathways in Plants.

PubMed

Wisecaver, Jennifer H; Borowsky, Alexander T; Tzin, Vered; Jander, Georg; Kliebenstein, Daniel J; Rokas, Antonis

2017-05-01

Plants produce diverse specialized metabolites (SMs), but the genes responsible for their production and regulation remain largely unknown, hindering efforts to tap plant pharmacopeia. Given that genes comprising SM pathways exhibit environmentally dependent coregulation, we hypothesized that genes within a SM pathway would form tight associations (modules) with each other in coexpression networks, facilitating their identification. To evaluate this hypothesis, we used 10 global coexpression data sets, each a meta-analysis of hundreds to thousands of experiments, across eight plant species to identify hundreds of coexpressed gene modules per data set. In support of our hypothesis, 15.3 to 52.6% of modules contained two or more known SM biosynthetic genes, and module genes were enriched in SM functions. Moreover, modules recovered many experimentally validated SM pathways, including all six known to form biosynthetic gene clusters (BGCs). In contrast, bioinformatically predicted BGCs (i.e., those lacking an associated metabolite) were no more coexpressed than the null distribution for neighboring genes. These results suggest that most predicted plant BGCs are not genuine SM pathways and argue that BGCs are not a hallmark of plant specialized metabolism. We submit that global gene coexpression is a rich, largely untapped resource for discovering the genetic basis and architecture of plant natural products. © 2017 American Society of Plant Biologists. All rights reserved.

Unsustainable development pathways caused by tropical deforestation

PubMed Central

Carrasco, Luis Roman; Nghiem, Thi Phuong Le; Chen, Zhirong; Barbier, Edward B.

2017-01-01

Global sustainability strategies require assessing whether countries’ development trajectories are sustainable over time. However, sustainability assessments are limited because losses of natural capital and its ecosystem services through deforestation have not been comprehensively incorporated into national accounts. We update the national accounts of 80 nations that underwent tropical deforestation from 2000 to 2012 and evaluate their development trajectories using weak and strong sustainability criteria. Weak sustainability requires that countries do not decrease their aggregate capital over time. We adopt a strong sustainability criterion that countries do not decrease the value of their forest ecosystem services with respect to the year 2000. We identify several groups of countries: countries, such as Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, and India, that present sustainable development trajectories under both weak and strong sustainability criteria; countries, such as Brazil, Peru, and Indonesia, that present weak sustainable development but fail the strong sustainability criterion as a result of rapid losses of ecosystem services; countries, such as Madagascar, Laos, and Papua New Guinea, that present unsustainable development pathways as a result of deforestation; and countries, such as Democratic Republic of Congo and Sierra Leone, in which deforestation aggravates already unsustainable pathways. Our results reveal a large number of countries where tropical deforestation is both damaging to nature and not compensated by development in other sectors, thus compromising the well-being of their future generations. PMID:28706988

Modeling the global distribution of the oxygen isotopic composition of sulfate aerosols: Importance of transition metal catalyzed S(IV) oxidation chemistry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alexander, B.; Park, R. J.

2006-12-01

The oxygen isotopic composition of sulfate aerosols (Δ17O ~ δ&&17O 0.5*δ18O) reflects the relative importance of different photochemical oxidation pathways in the atmosphere. Simulated isotopic variability in a global chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem) shows good agreement with observations in oceanic [Alexander et al., 2005] and some continental sites. However, a large discrepancy exists between modeled and measured isotopic composition in the high northern latitudes, reflecting an incomplete understanding of the sulfur budget in this region. Recent oxygen isotope measurements of sulfate aerosols collected at Alert, Canada suggest that transition metal catalyzed oxidation of SO2 by O2 in the aqueous-phase is significant during winter [Mc Cabe et al.,2006]. Global chemistry models ignore this oxidation pathway because it is believed to be important only regionally, and because of the large uncertainties in atmospheric metal concentrations and oxidation states. We have incorporated Fe(III) and Mn(II) catalyzed oxidation of S(IV) (S(IV) = SO2·H2O + HSO3- + SO32-) by O2 into the GEOS-Chem model using the McCabe et al. [2006] isotope measurements as a constraint. We will examine the importance of this oxidation pathway for the sulfur budget in the Arctic, and on the global scale. Preliminary results suggest that, during winter, up to 75% of aerosol sulfate at Alert forms via the metal catalysis pathway. The addition of this chemical pathway decreases the SO2 burden in the Arctic (north of 60°N) by 40% due to an increase in the oxidation rate. The comparison of large-scale sulfate aerosol models study (COSAM) showed that on average, models over-predict SO2 mixing ratios by factors of 2 or more [Barrie et al., 2001]. This "missing" S(IV) oxidation pathway can partially explain this discrepancy.

Global Acceptance of Biosimilars: Importance of Regulatory Consistency, Education, and Trust.

PubMed

Cazap, Eduardo; Jacobs, Ira; McBride, Ali; Popovian, Robert; Sikora, Karol

2018-05-16

Globally, biosimilars are expected to have a key role in improving patient access to biological therapies and addressing concerns regarding the escalating cost of health care. Indeed, in Europe, increased use of biologics and reduced drug prices have been observed after the introduction of biosimilars. Recently, several monoclonal antibody biosimilars of anticancer therapies have been approved, and numerous others are in various stages of clinical development. Biosimilars are authorized via a regulatory pathway separate from that used for generic drugs; they are also regulated separately from novel biologics. Biosimilar approval pathways in many major regulatory regions worldwide are, to a broad degree, scientifically aligned. However, owing to regional differences in health care priorities, policies, and resources, some important regulatory inconsistencies are evident. Acceptance of biosimilars by health care systems, health care professionals, and patients will be a key factor in the uptake of these therapies, and such regulatory variations could contribute to confusion and diminished confidence regarding the quality, efficacy, and reliability of these agents. Furthermore, the need for manufacturers to account for regulatory inconsistencies introduces inefficiencies and delays into biosimilar development programs. These issues should be addressed if biosimilars are to attain their maximal global potential. This review summarizes the evolution of the global biosimilar landscape and provides examples of inconsistencies between regulatory requirements in different regions. In addition, we review ongoing efforts to improve regulatory alignment and highlight the importance of education as a crucial factor in generating trust in, and acceptance of, biosimilars on a worldwide scale. Biosimilars of monoclonal antibody anticancer therapies are beginning to emerge, and more are likely to become available for clinical use in the near future. The extent to which biosimilars can contribute to cancer care will depend on their level of acceptance by health care systems, health care professionals, and patients. A better understanding of the regulatory basis for the approval of biosimilars may enhance confidence and trust in these agents. In order to have informed discussions about treatment choices with their patients, oncologists should familiarize themselves with the biosimilar paradigm. © AlphaMed Press 2018.

Nanosensor Technology Applied to Living Plant Systems.

PubMed

Kwak, Seon-Yeong; Wong, Min Hao; Lew, Tedrick Thomas Salim; Bisker, Gili; Lee, Michael A; Kaplan, Amir; Dong, Juyao; Liu, Albert Tianxiang; Koman, Volodymyr B; Sinclair, Rosalie; Hamann, Catherine; Strano, Michael S

2017-06-12

An understanding of plant biology is essential to solving many long-standing global challenges, including sustainable and secure food production and the generation of renewable fuel sources. Nanosensor platforms, sensors with a characteristic dimension that is nanometer in scale, have emerged as important tools for monitoring plant signaling pathways and metabolism that are nondestructive, minimally invasive, and capable of real-time analysis. This review outlines the recent advances in nanotechnology that enable these platforms, including the measurement of chemical fluxes even at the single-molecule level. Applications of nanosensors to plant biology are discussed in the context of nutrient management, disease assessment, food production, detection of DNA proteins, and the regulation of plant hormones. Current trends and future needs are discussed with respect to the emerging trends of precision agriculture, urban farming, and plant nanobionics.

Rapid Processing of a Global Feature in the ON Visual Pathways of Behaving Monkeys.

PubMed

Huang, Jun; Yang, Yan; Zhou, Ke; Zhao, Xudong; Zhou, Quan; Zhu, Hong; Yang, Yingshan; Zhang, Chunming; Zhou, Yifeng; Zhou, Wu

2017-01-01

Visual objects are recognized by their features. Whereas, some features are based on simple components (i.e., local features, such as orientation of line segments), some features are based on the whole object (i.e., global features, such as an object having a hole in it). Over the past five decades, behavioral, physiological, anatomical, and computational studies have established a general model of vision, which starts from extracting local features in the lower visual pathways followed by a feature integration process that extracts global features in the higher visual pathways. This local-to-global model is successful in providing a unified account for a vast sets of perception experiments, but it fails to account for a set of experiments showing human visual systems' superior sensitivity to global features. Understanding the neural mechanisms underlying the "global-first" process will offer critical insights into new models of vision. The goal of the present study was to establish a non-human primate model of rapid processing of global features for elucidating the neural mechanisms underlying differential processing of global and local features. Monkeys were trained to make a saccade to a target in the black background, which was different from the distractors (white circle) in color (e.g., red circle target), local features (e.g., white square target), a global feature (e.g., white ring with a hole target) or their combinations (e.g., red square target). Contrary to the predictions of the prevailing local-to-global model, we found that (1) detecting a distinction or a change in the global feature was faster than detecting a distinction or a change in color or local features; (2) detecting a distinction in color was facilitated by a distinction in the global feature, but not in the local features; and (3) detecting the hole was interfered by the local features of the hole (e.g., white ring with a squared hole). These results suggest that monkey ON visual systems have a subsystem that is more sensitive to distinctions in the global feature than local features. They also provide the behavioral constraints for identifying the underlying neural substrates.

A review of green- and blue-water resources and their trade-offs for future agricultural production in the Amazon Basin: what could irrigated agriculture mean for Amazonia?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lathuillière, Michael J.; Coe, Michael T.; Johnson, Mark S.

2016-06-01

The Amazon Basin is a region of global importance for the carbon and hydrological cycles, a biodiversity hotspot, and a potential centre for future economic development. The region is also a major source of water vapour recycled into continental precipitation through evapotranspiration processes. This review applies an ecohydrological approach to Amazonia's water cycle by looking at contributions of water resources in the context of future agricultural production. At present, agriculture in the region is primarily rain-fed and relies almost exclusively on green-water resources (soil moisture regenerated by precipitation). Future agricultural development, however, will likely follow pathways that include irrigation from blue-water sources (surface water and groundwater) as insurance from variability in precipitation. In this review, we first provide an updated summary of the green-blue ecohydrological framework before describing past trends in Amazonia's water resources within the context of land use and land cover change. We then describe green- and blue-water trade-offs in light of future agricultural production and potential irrigation to assess costs and benefits to terrestrial ecosystems, particularly land and biodiversity protection, and regional precipitation recycling. Management of green water is needed, particularly at the agricultural frontier located in the headwaters of major tributaries to the Amazon River, and home to key downstream blue-water users and ecosystem services, including domestic and industrial users, as well as aquatic ecosystems.

Future Impact of Globalism on Programs in Educational Administration.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Prickett, R. L.; And Others

A descriptive analysis addressing the future impact of globalism on programs in educational administration provides perspicacity to professors in the specialty area. Emphasis on internal/global education is usually reserved for programs for individuals going to foreign countries, working with foreign countries, or providing cooperative programs…

A changing climate: impacts on human exposures to O3 using ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Predicting the impacts of changing climate on human exposure to air pollution requires future scenarios that account for changes in ambient pollutant concentrations, population sizes and distributions, and housing stocks. An integrated methodology to model changes in human exposures due to these impacts was developed by linking climate, air quality, land-use, and human exposure models. This methodology was then applied to characterize changes in predicted human exposures to O3 under multiple future scenarios. Regional climate projections for the U.S. were developed by downscaling global circulation model (GCM) scenarios for three of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC’s) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The regional climate results were in turn used to generate air quality (concentration) projections using the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. For each of the climate change scenarios, future U.S. census-tract level population distributions from the Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios (ICLUS) model for four future scenarios based on the IPCC’s Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) storylines were used. These climate, air quality, and population projections were used as inputs to EPA’s Air Pollutants Exposure (APEX) model for 12 U.S. cities. Probability density functions show changes in the population distribution of 8 h maximum daily O3 exposur

CD47 Receptor Globally Regulates Metabolic Pathways That Control Resistance to Ionizing Radiation*

PubMed Central

Miller, Thomas W.; Soto-Pantoja, David R.; Schwartz, Anthony L.; Sipes, John M.; DeGraff, William G.; Ridnour, Lisa A.; Wink, David A.; Roberts, David D.

2015-01-01

Modulating tissue responses to stress is an important therapeutic objective. Oxidative and genotoxic stresses caused by ionizing radiation are detrimental to healthy tissues but beneficial for treatment of cancer. CD47 is a signaling receptor for thrombospondin-1 and an attractive therapeutic target because blocking CD47 signaling protects normal tissues while sensitizing tumors to ionizing radiation. Here we utilized a metabolomic approach to define molecular mechanisms underlying this radioprotective activity. CD47-deficient cells and cd47-null mice exhibited global advantages in preserving metabolite levels after irradiation. Metabolic pathways required for controlling oxidative stress and mediating DNA repair were enhanced. Some cellular energetics pathways differed basally in CD47-deficient cells, and the global declines in the glycolytic and tricarboxylic acid cycle metabolites characteristic of normal cell and tissue responses to irradiation were prevented in the absence of CD47. Thus, CD47 mediates signaling from the extracellular matrix that coordinately regulates basal metabolism and cytoprotective responses to radiation injury. PMID:26311851

Fossil-fueled development (SSP5): An energy and resource intensive scenario for the 21st century

DOE PAGES

Kriegler, Elmar; Bauer, Nico; Popp, Alexander; ...

2016-08-18

Here, this paper presents a set of energy and resource intensive scenarios based on the concept of Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs). The scenario family is characterized by rapid and fossil-fueled development with high socio-economic challenges to mitigation and low socio-economic challenges to adaptation (SSP5). A special focus is placed on the SSP5 marker scenario developed by the REMIND-MAgPIE integrated assessment modeling framework. The SSP5 scenarios exhibit very high levels of fossil fuel use, up to a doubling of global food demand, and up to a tripling of energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions over the course of the century, markingmore » the upper end of the scenario literature in several dimensions. The SSP5 marker scenario results in a radiative forcing pathway close to the highest Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP8.5), and represents currently the only socio-economic scenario family that can be combined with climate model projections based on RCP8.5. This paper further investigates the direct impact of mitigation policies on the energy, land and emissions dynamics confirming high socio-economic challenges to mitigation in SSP5. Nonetheless, mitigation policies reaching climate forcing levels as low as in the lowest Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP2.6) are accessible in SSP5. Finally, the SSP5 scenarios presented in this paper aim to provide useful reference points for future climate change, climate impact, adaption and mitigation analysis, and broader questions of sustainable development.« less

Fossil-fueled development (SSP5): An energy and resource intensive scenario for the 21st century

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kriegler, Elmar; Bauer, Nico; Popp, Alexander

Here, this paper presents a set of energy and resource intensive scenarios based on the concept of Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs). The scenario family is characterized by rapid and fossil-fueled development with high socio-economic challenges to mitigation and low socio-economic challenges to adaptation (SSP5). A special focus is placed on the SSP5 marker scenario developed by the REMIND-MAgPIE integrated assessment modeling framework. The SSP5 scenarios exhibit very high levels of fossil fuel use, up to a doubling of global food demand, and up to a tripling of energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions over the course of the century, markingmore » the upper end of the scenario literature in several dimensions. The SSP5 marker scenario results in a radiative forcing pathway close to the highest Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP8.5), and represents currently the only socio-economic scenario family that can be combined with climate model projections based on RCP8.5. This paper further investigates the direct impact of mitigation policies on the energy, land and emissions dynamics confirming high socio-economic challenges to mitigation in SSP5. Nonetheless, mitigation policies reaching climate forcing levels as low as in the lowest Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP2.6) are accessible in SSP5. Finally, the SSP5 scenarios presented in this paper aim to provide useful reference points for future climate change, climate impact, adaption and mitigation analysis, and broader questions of sustainable development.« less

Trump, Brexit, Right-wing Anti-globalisation, and An Uncertain Future for Public Health

PubMed Central

Macgregor-Bowles, Isabelle; Bowles, Devin C.

2017-01-01

Global public health is intimately linked with political, economic and social determinants. The current global order has been built on the assumption that the globalisation agenda shared by political elites of the last several decades will continue. Individuals, businesses and countries have all made decisions, many of them linked to health, based on this assumption. The election of Donald Trump to the US presidency and the vote in Britain to exit the European Union exemplify a recent wave of right-wing anti-globalisation, which has risen in much of the West. The right-wing anti-globalisation movement will substantially affect global health through four pathways. Restrictions on trade will dampen economic growth and could diminish food security and the availability of medical supplies. Xenophobia will harm mental health through the lived experience of minorities, and will elevate the risk of economic and military conflict between countries. Increased defence expenditure in a time of limited government budgets will constrict funding available for healthcare and the social determinants of health. Mistrust of international treaties, including for climate change, will undermine the Paris Agreement and hasten greenhouse gas emissions. Without rapid mitigation, climate change could devastate population health globally through a range of mechanisms, including diminished food security and increased violent conflict. These would amplify many of the other health effects of right-wing anti-globalisation. By emphasising the shared humanity of all people, population health offers an antidote to the narrow focus of right-wing anti-globalisation. PMID:29546210

Projected global ground-level ozone impacts on vegetation under different emission and climate scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sicard, Pierre; Anav, Alessandro; De Marco, Alessandra; Paoletti, Elena

2017-10-01

The impact of ground-level ozone (O3) on vegetation is largely under-investigated at the global scale despite large areas worldwide that are exposed to high surface O3 levels. To explore future potential impacts of O3 on vegetation, we compared historical and projected surface O3 concentrations simulated by six global atmospheric chemistry transport models on the basis of three representative concentration pathways emission scenarios (i.e. RCP2.6, 4.5, 8.5). To assess changes in the potential surface O3 threat to vegetation at the global scale, we used the AOT40 metric. Results point out a significant exceedance of AOT40 in comparison with the recommendations of UNECE for the protection of vegetation. In fact, many areas of the Northern Hemisphere show that AOT40-based critical levels will be exceeded by a factor of at least 10 under RCP8.5. Changes in surface O3 by 2100 worldwide range from about +4-5 ppb in the RCP8.5 scenario to reductions of about 2-10 ppb in the most optimistic scenario, RCP2.6. The risk of O3 injury for vegetation, through the potential O3 impact on photosynthetic assimilation, decreased by 61 and 47 % under RCP2.6 and RCP4.5, respectively, and increased by 70 % under RCP8.5. Key biodiversity areas in southern and northern Asia, central Africa and North America were identified as being at risk from high O3 concentrations.

Trump, Brexit, Right-wing Anti-globalisation, and An Uncertain Future for Public Health.

PubMed

Macgregor-Bowles, Isabelle; Bowles, Devin C

2017-01-01

Global public health is intimately linked with political, economic and social determinants. The current global order has been built on the assumption that the globalisation agenda shared by political elites of the last several decades will continue. Individuals, businesses and countries have all made decisions, many of them linked to health, based on this assumption. The election of Donald Trump to the US presidency and the vote in Britain to exit the European Union exemplify a recent wave of right-wing anti-globalisation, which has risen in much of the West. The right-wing anti-globalisation movement will substantially affect global health through four pathways. Restrictions on trade will dampen economic growth and could diminish food security and the availability of medical supplies. Xenophobia will harm mental health through the lived experience of minorities, and will elevate the risk of economic and military conflict between countries. Increased defence expenditure in a time of limited government budgets will constrict funding available for healthcare and the social determinants of health. Mistrust of international treaties, including for climate change, will undermine the Paris Agreement and hasten greenhouse gas emissions. Without rapid mitigation, climate change could devastate population health globally through a range of mechanisms, including diminished food security and increased violent conflict. These would amplify many of the other health effects of right-wing anti-globalisation. By emphasising the shared humanity of all people, population health offers an antidote to the narrow focus of right-wing anti-globalisation.

Analysis of consistency of global net land-use change carbon emission scenario using offline vegetation model and earth system model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kato, E.; Kawamiya, M.

2010-12-01

For CMIP5 experiments, emissions scenarios data sets for climate models are prepared as Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) by the Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs). IAMs also have depicted regional land-use scenarios based on the socioeconomic assumption of the future scenarios of RCPs. In the land-use harmonization project, gridded land-use transition data has been constructed from the regional IAMs future land-use scenarios which smoothly connects historical reconstructions of land-use based on HYDE 3 data and FAO wood harvest data. In this study, using the gridded transition land-use scenario data, global net CO2 emission from land-use change for each RCPs scenarios is evaluated with a offline version of terrestrial biogeochemical model, VISIT (Vegetation Integrative SImulation Tool), utilizing a protocol to estimate carbon emission from deforested biomass considering delayed decomposition of product pools, and regrowth absorption from the secondary lands with abandoned agricultural lands. From the model output, effect of CO2 fertilization and land-use scenario itself on the emission is assessed to see the consistency of the scenarios. In addition, to see the effect of climate change and the climate-carbon feedback on terrestrial ecosystems, net land-use change CO2 emission is also evaluated with an earth system model, MIROC-ESM incorporating a DGVM with land-use change component. In the simulations with earth system model, RCP 6.0 scenario has been evaluated by model runs with and without land-use change forcing.

A future without health? Health dimension in global scenario studies.

PubMed Central

Martens, Pim; Huynen, Maud

2003-01-01

This paper reviews the health dimension and sociocultural, economic, and ecological determinants of health in existing global scenario studies. Not even half of the 31 scenarios reviewed gave a good description of future health developments and the different scenario studies did not handle health in a consistent way. Most of the global driving forces of health are addressed adequately in the selected scenarios, however, and it therefore would have been possible to describe the future developments in health as an outcome of these multiple driving forces. To provide examples on how future health can be incorporated in existing scenarios, we linked the sociocultural, economic, and environmental developments described in three sets of scenarios (special report on emission scenarios (SRES), global environmental outlook-3 (GEO3), and world water scenarios (WWS)) to three potential, but imaginary, health futures ("age of emerging infectious diseases", "age of medical technology", and "age of sustained health"). This paper provides useful insights into how to deal with future health in scenarios and shows that a comprehensive picture of future health evolves when all important driving forces and pressures are taken into account. PMID:14997242

Role of thymosin beta 4 in hair growth.

PubMed

Gao, Xiao-Yu; Hou, Fang; Zhang, Zhi-Peng; Nuo, Ming-Tu; Liang, Hao; Cang, Ming; Wang, Zhi-Gang; Wang, Xin; Xu, Teng; Yan, Le-Yan; Guo, Xu-Dong; Liu, Dong-Jun

2016-08-01

Although thymosin beta 4 (Tβ4) is known to play a role in hair growth, its mechanism of action is unclear. We examined the levels of key genes in a Tβ4 epidermal-specific over-expressing mouse model and Tβ4 global knockout mouse model to explore how Tβ4 affects hair growth. By depilation and histological examination of the skin, we confirmed the effect of Tβ4 on hair growth, the number of hair shafts and hair follicle (HF) structure. The mRNA and protein expression of several genes involved in hair growth were detected by real-time PCR and western blotting, respectively. Changes in the expression of β-catenin and Lef-1, the two key molecules in the Wnt signaling pathway, were similar to the changes observed in Tβ4 expression. We also found that compared to the control mice, the mRNA and protein expression of MMP-2 and VEGF were increased in the Tβ4 over-expressing mice, while the level of E-cadherin (E-cad) remained the same. Further, in the Tβ4 global knockout mice, the mRNA and protein levels of MMP-2 and VEGF decreased dramatically and the level of E-cad was stable. Based on the above results, we believe that Tβ4 may regulate the levels of VEGF and MMP-2 via the Wnt/β-catenin/Lef-1 signaling pathway to influence the growth of blood vessels around HFs and to activate cell migration. Tβ4 may have potential for the treatment of hair growth problems in adults, and its effects should be further confirmed in future studies.

Global health and climate change: moving from denial and catastrophic fatalism to positive action.

PubMed

Costello, Anthony; Maslin, Mark; Montgomery, Hugh; Johnson, Anne M; Ekins, Paul

2011-05-13

The health effects of climate change have had relatively little attention from climate scientists and governments. Climate change will be a major threat to population health in the current century through its potential effects on communicable disease, heat stress, food and water security, extreme weather events, vulnerable shelter and population migration. This paper addresses three health-sector strategies to manage the health effects of climate change-promotion of mitigation, tackling the pathways that lead to ill-health and strengthening health systems. Mitigation of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is affordable, and low-carbon technologies are available now or will be in the near future. Pathways to ill-health can be managed through better information, poverty reduction, technological innovation, social and cultural change and greater coordination of national and international institutions. Strengthening health systems requires increased investment in order to provide effective public health responses to climate-induced threats to health, equitable treatment of illness, promotion of low-carbon lifestyles and renewable energy solutions within health facilities. Mitigation and adaptation strategies will produce substantial benefits for health, such as reductions in obesity and heart disease, diabetes, stress and depression, pneumonia and asthma, as well as potential cost savings within the health sector. The case for mitigating climate change by reducing GHGs is overwhelming. The need to build population resilience to the global health threat from already unavoidable climate change is real and urgent. Action must not be delayed by contrarians, nor by catastrophic fatalists who say it is all too late. © 2011 Royal Society

Antidiabetic phytoconstituents and their mode of action on metabolic pathways

PubMed Central

Bharti, Sudhanshu Kumar; Krishnan, Supriya; Kumar, Ashwini

2018-01-01

Diabetes Mellitus, characterized by persistent hyperglycaemia, is a heterogeneous group of disorders of multiple aetiologies. It affects the human body at multiple organ levels thus making it difficult to follow a particular line of the treatment protocol and requires a multimodal approach. The increasing medical burden on patients with diabetes-related complications results in an enormous economic burden, which could severely impair global economic growth in the near future. This shows that today’s healthcare system has conventionally been poorly equipped towards confronting the mounting impact of diabetes on a global scale and demands an urgent need for newer and better options. The overall challenge of this field of diabetes treatment is to identify the individualized factors that can lead to improved glycaemic control. Plants are traditionally used worldwide as remedies for diabetes healing. They synthesize a diverse array of biologically active compounds having antidiabetic properties. This review is an endeavour to document the present armamentarium of antidiabetic herbal drug discovery and developments, highlighting mechanism-based antidiabetic properties of over 300 different phytoconstituents of various chemical categories from about 100 different plants modulating different metabolic pathways such as glycolysis, Krebs cycle, gluconeogenesis, glycogen synthesis and degradation, cholesterol synthesis, carbohydrate metabolism as well as peroxisome proliferator activated receptor activation, dipeptidyl peptidase inhibition and free radical scavenging action. The aim is to provide a rich reservoir of pharmacologically established antidiabetic phytoconstituents with specific references to the novel, cost-effective interventions, which might be of relevance to other low-income and middle-income countries of the world. PMID:29492244

A robust impact assessment that informs actionable climate change adaptation: future sunburn browning risk in apple

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Webb, Leanne; Darbyshire, Rebecca; Erwin, Tim; Goodwin, Ian

2017-05-01

Climate change impact assessments are predominantly undertaken for the purpose of informing future adaptation decisions. Often, the complexity of the methodology hinders the actionable outcomes. The approach used here illustrates the importance of considering uncertainty in future climate projections, at the same time providing robust and simple to interpret information for decision-makers. By quantifying current and future exposure of Royal Gala apple to damaging temperature extremes across ten important pome fruit-growing locations in Australia, differences in impact to ripening fruit are highlighted, with, by the end of the twenty-first century, some locations maintaining no sunburn browning risk, while others potentially experiencing the risk for the majority of the January ripening period. Installation of over-tree netting can reduce the impact of sunburn browning. The benefits from employing this management option varied across the ten study locations. The two approaches explored to assist decision-makers assess this information (a) using sunburn browning risk analogues and (b) through identifying hypothetical sunburn browning risk thresholds, resulted in varying recommendations for introducing over-tree netting. These recommendations were location and future time period dependent with some sites showing no benefit for sunburn protection from nets even by the end of the twenty-first century and others already deriving benefits from employing this adaptation option. Potential best and worst cases of sunburn browning risk and its potential reduction through introduction of over-tree nets were explored. The range of results presented highlights the importance of addressing uncertainty in climate projections that result from different global climate models and possible future emission pathways.

A robust impact assessment that informs actionable climate change adaptation: future sunburn browning risk in apple.

PubMed

Webb, Leanne; Darbyshire, Rebecca; Erwin, Tim; Goodwin, Ian

2017-05-01

Climate change impact assessments are predominantly undertaken for the purpose of informing future adaptation decisions. Often, the complexity of the methodology hinders the actionable outcomes. The approach used here illustrates the importance of considering uncertainty in future climate projections, at the same time providing robust and simple to interpret information for decision-makers. By quantifying current and future exposure of Royal Gala apple to damaging temperature extremes across ten important pome fruit-growing locations in Australia, differences in impact to ripening fruit are highlighted, with, by the end of the twenty-first century, some locations maintaining no sunburn browning risk, while others potentially experiencing the risk for the majority of the January ripening period. Installation of over-tree netting can reduce the impact of sunburn browning. The benefits from employing this management option varied across the ten study locations. The two approaches explored to assist decision-makers assess this information (a) using sunburn browning risk analogues and (b) through identifying hypothetical sunburn browning risk thresholds, resulted in varying recommendations for introducing over-tree netting. These recommendations were location and future time period dependent with some sites showing no benefit for sunburn protection from nets even by the end of the twenty-first century and others already deriving benefits from employing this adaptation option. Potential best and worst cases of sunburn browning risk and its potential reduction through introduction of over-tree nets were explored. The range of results presented highlights the importance of addressing uncertainty in climate projections that result from different global climate models and possible future emission pathways.

Projected climate and agronomic implications for corn production in the Northeastern United States.

PubMed

Prasad, Rishi; Gunn, Stephan Kpoti; Rotz, Clarence Alan; Karsten, Heather; Roth, Greg; Buda, Anthony; Stoner, Anne M K

2018-01-01

Corn has been a pillar of American agriculture for decades and continues to receive much attention from the scientific community for its potential to meet the food, feed and fuel needs of a growing human population in a changing climate. By midcentury, global temperature increase is expected to exceed 2°C where local effects on heat, cold and precipitation extremes will vary. The Northeast United States is a major dairy producer, corn consumer, and is cited as the fastest warming region in the contiguous U.S. It is important to understand how key agronomic climate variables affect corn growth and development so that adaptation strategies can be tailored to local climate changes. We analyzed potential local effects of climate change on corn growth and development at three major dairy locations in the Northeast (Syracuse, New York; State College, Pennsylvania and Landisville, Pennsylvania) using downscaled projected climate data (2000-2100) from nine Global Climate Models under two emission pathways (Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5). Our analysis indicates that corn near the end of the 21st century will experience fewer spring and fall freezes, faster rate of growing degree day accumulation with a reduction in time required to reach maturity, greater frequencies of daily high temperature ≥35°C during key growth stages such as silking-anthesis and greater water deficit during reproductive (R1-R6) stages. These agronomic anomalies differ between the three locations, illustrating varying impacts of climate change in the more northern regions vs. the southern regions of the Northeast. Management strategies such as shifting the planting dates based on last spring freeze and irrigation during the greatest water deficit stages (R1-R6) will partially offset the projected increase in heat and drought stress. Future research should focus on understanding the effects of global warming at local levels and determining adaptation strategies that meet local needs.

Results from the BRACE 1.5 study: Climate change impacts of 1.5 C and 2 C warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Neill, B. C.; Anderson, B.; Monaghan, A. J.; Ren, X.; Sanderson, B.; Tebaldi, C.

2017-12-01

In 2015, 195 countries negotiated the Paris Agreement on climate change, which set long-term goals of limiting global mean warming to well below 2 C and possibly 1.5 C. This event stimulated substantial scientific interest in climate outcomes and impacts on society associated with those levels of warming. Recently, the first set of global climate model simulations explicitly designed to meet those targets were undertaken with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) for use by the research community (Sanderson et al, accepted). The BRACE 1.5 project models societal impacts from these climate outcomes, combined with assumptions about future socioeconomic conditions according to the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. These analyses build on a recently completed study of the Benefits of Reduced Anthropogenic Climate changE (BRACE), published as a set of 20 papers in Climatic Change, which examined the difference in impacts between two higher scenarios resulting in about 2.5 C and 3.7 C warming by late this century. BRACE 1.5 consists of a set of six papers to be submitted to a special collection in Environmental Research Letters that takes a similar approach but focuses on impacts at 1.5 and 2 C warming. We ask whether impacts differ substantially between the two climate scenarios, accounting for uncertainty in climate outcomes through the use of initial condition ensembles of CESM simulations, and in societal conditions by using alternative SSP-based development pathways. Impact assessment focuses on the health and agricultural sectors; modeling approaches include the use of a global mutli-region CGE model for economic analysis, both a process-based and an empirical crop model, a model of spatial population change, a model of climatic suitability for the aedes aegypti mosquito, and an epidemiological model of heat-related mortality. A methodological analysis also evaluates the use of climate model emulation techniques for providing climate information sufficient to support impact assessment in low warming scenarios.

Perspectives on the future of the electric utility industry

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tonn, B.; Schaffhauser, A.

1994-04-01

This report offers perspectives on the future of the electric utility industry. These perspectives will be used in further research to assess the prospects for Integrated Resource Planning (IRP). The perspectives are developed first by examining economic, political and regulatory, societal, technological, and environmental trends that are (1) national and global in scope and (2) directly related to the electric utility industry. Major national and global trends include increasing global economic competition, increasing political and ethnic strife, rapidly changing technologies, and increasing worldwide concern about the environment. Major trends in the utility industry include increasing competition in generation; changing patternsmore » of electricity demand; increasing use of information technology to control power systems; and increasing implementation of environmental controls. Ways in which the national and global trends may directly affect the utility industry are also explored. The trends are used to construct three global and national scenarios- ``business as usual,`` ``technotopia future,`` and ``fortress state`` -and three electric utility scenarios- ``frozen in headlights,`` ``megaelectric,`` and ``discomania.`` The scenarios are designed to be thought provoking descriptions of potential futures, not predictions of the future, although three key variables are identified that will have significant impacts on which future evolves-global climate change, utility technologies, and competition. While emphasis needs to be placed on understanding the electric utility scenarios, the interactions between the two sets of scenarios is also of interest.« less

The Escherichia coli Proteome: Past, Present, and Future Prospects†

PubMed Central

Han, Mee-Jung; Lee, Sang Yup

2006-01-01

Proteomics has emerged as an indispensable methodology for large-scale protein analysis in functional genomics. The Escherichia coli proteome has been extensively studied and is well defined in terms of biochemical, biological, and biotechnological data. Even before the entire E. coli proteome was fully elucidated, the largest available data set had been integrated to decipher regulatory circuits and metabolic pathways, providing valuable insights into global cellular physiology and the development of metabolic and cellular engineering strategies. With the recent advent of advanced proteomic technologies, the E. coli proteome has been used for the validation of new technologies and methodologies such as sample prefractionation, protein enrichment, two-dimensional gel electrophoresis, protein detection, mass spectrometry (MS), combinatorial assays with n-dimensional chromatographies and MS, and image analysis software. These important technologies will not only provide a great amount of additional information on the E. coli proteome but also synergistically contribute to other proteomic studies. Here, we review the past development and current status of E. coli proteome research in terms of its biological, biotechnological, and methodological significance and suggest future prospects. PMID:16760308

The Impacts and Economic Costs of Climate Change in Agriculture and the Costs and Benefits of Adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iglesias, A.; Quiroga, S.; Garrote, L.; Cunningham, R.

2012-04-01

This paper provides monetary estimates of the effects of agricultural adaptation to climate change in Europe. The model computes spatial crop productivity changes as a response to climate change linking biophysical and socioeconomic components. It combines available data sets of crop productivity changes under climate change (Iglesias et al 2011, Ciscar et al 2011), statistical functions of productivity response to water and nitrogen inputs, catchment level water availability, and environmental policy scenarios. Future global change scenarios are derived from several socio-economic futures of representative concentration pathways and regional climate models. The economic valuation is conducted by using GTAP general equilibrium model. The marginal productivity changes has been used as an input for the economic general equilibrium model in order to analyse the economic impact of the agricultural changes induced by climate change in the world. The study also includes the analysis of an adaptive capacity index computed by using the socio-economic results of GTAP. The results are combined to prioritize agricultural adaptation policy needs in Europe.

Spatially Refined Aerosol Direct Radiative Forcing Efficiencies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Henze, Daven K.; Shindell, Drew Todd; Akhtar, Farhan; Spurr, Robert J. D.; Pinder, Robert W.; Loughlin, Dan; Kopacz, Monika; Singh, Kumaresh; Shim, Changsub

2012-01-01

Global aerosol direct radiative forcing (DRF) is an important metric for assessing potential climate impacts of future emissions changes. However, the radiative consequences of emissions perturbations are not readily quantified nor well understood at the level of detail necessary to assess realistic policy options. To address this challenge, here we show how adjoint model sensitivities can be used to provide highly spatially resolved estimates of the DRF from emissions of black carbon (BC), primary organic carbon (OC), sulfur dioxide (SO2), and ammonia (NH3), using the example of emissions from each sector and country following multiple Representative Concentration Pathway (RCPs). The radiative forcing efficiencies of many individual emissions are found to differ considerably from regional or sectoral averages for NH3, SO2 from the power sector, and BC from domestic, industrial, transportation and biomass burning sources. Consequently, the amount of emissions controls required to attain a specific DRF varies at intracontinental scales by up to a factor of 4. These results thus demonstrate both a need and means for incorporating spatially refined aerosol DRF into analysis of future emissions scenario and design of air quality and climate change mitigation policies.

The Future of Ground Magnetometer Arrays in Support of Space Weather Monitoring and Research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Engebretson, Mark; Zesta, Eftyhia

2017-11-01

A community workshop was held in Greenbelt, Maryland, on 5-6 May 2016 to discuss recommendations for the future of ground magnetometer array research in space physics. The community reviewed findings contained in the 2016 Geospace Portfolio Review of the Geospace Section of the Division of Atmospheric and Geospace Science of the National Science Foundation and discussed the present state of ground magnetometer arrays and possible pathways for a more optimal, robust, and effective organization and scientific use of these ground arrays. This paper summarizes the report of that workshop to the National Science Foundation (Engebretson & Zesta, as well as conclusions from two follow-up meetings. It describes the current state of U.S.-funded ground magnetometer arrays and summarizes community recommendations for changes in both organizational and funding structures. It also outlines a variety of new and/or augmented regional and global data products and visualizations that can be facilitated by increased collaboration among arrays. Such products will enhance the value of ground-based magnetometer data to the community's effort for understanding of Earth's space environment and space weather effects.

Stringent Mitigation Policy Implied By Temperature Impacts on Economic Growth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moore, F.; Turner, D.

2014-12-01

Integrated assessment models (IAMs) compare the costs of greenhouse gas mitigation with damages from climate change in order to evaluate the social welfare implications of climate policy proposals and inform optimal emissions reduction trajectories. However, these models have been criticized for lacking a strong empirical basis for their damage functions, which do little to alter assumptions of sustained GDP growth, even under extreme temperature scenarios. We implement empirical estimates of temperature effects on GDP growth-rates in the Dynamic Integrated Climate and Economy (DICE) model via two pathways, total factor productivity (TFP) growth and capital depreciation. Even under optimistic adaptation assumptions, this damage specification implies that optimal climate policy involves the elimination of emissions in the near future, the stabilization of global temperature change below 2°C, and a social cost of carbon (SCC) an order of magnitude larger than previous estimates. A sensitivity analysis shows that the magnitude of growth effects, the rate of adaptation, and the dynamic interaction between damages from warming and GDP are three critical uncertainties and an important focus for future research.

New parsimonious simulation methods and tools to assess future food and environmental security of farm populations

PubMed Central

Antle, John M.; Stoorvogel, Jetse J.; Valdivia, Roberto O.

2014-01-01

This article presents conceptual and empirical foundations for new parsimonious simulation models that are being used to assess future food and environmental security of farm populations. The conceptual framework integrates key features of the biophysical and economic processes on which the farming systems are based. The approach represents a methodological advance by coupling important behavioural processes, for example, self-selection in adaptive responses to technological and environmental change, with aggregate processes, such as changes in market supply and demand conditions or environmental conditions as climate. Suitable biophysical and economic data are a critical limiting factor in modelling these complex systems, particularly for the characterization of out-of-sample counterfactuals in ex ante analyses. Parsimonious, population-based simulation methods are described that exploit available observational, experimental, modelled and expert data. The analysis makes use of a new scenario design concept called representative agricultural pathways. A case study illustrates how these methods can be used to assess food and environmental security. The concluding section addresses generalizations of parametric forms and linkages of regional models to global models. PMID:24535388

New parsimonious simulation methods and tools to assess future food and environmental security of farm populations.

PubMed

Antle, John M; Stoorvogel, Jetse J; Valdivia, Roberto O

2014-04-05

This article presents conceptual and empirical foundations for new parsimonious simulation models that are being used to assess future food and environmental security of farm populations. The conceptual framework integrates key features of the biophysical and economic processes on which the farming systems are based. The approach represents a methodological advance by coupling important behavioural processes, for example, self-selection in adaptive responses to technological and environmental change, with aggregate processes, such as changes in market supply and demand conditions or environmental conditions as climate. Suitable biophysical and economic data are a critical limiting factor in modelling these complex systems, particularly for the characterization of out-of-sample counterfactuals in ex ante analyses. Parsimonious, population-based simulation methods are described that exploit available observational, experimental, modelled and expert data. The analysis makes use of a new scenario design concept called representative agricultural pathways. A case study illustrates how these methods can be used to assess food and environmental security. The concluding section addresses generalizations of parametric forms and linkages of regional models to global models.

Changes in U.S. Regional-Scale Air Quality at 2030 Simulated Using RCP 6.0

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nolte, C. G.; Otte, T.; Pinder, R. W.; Faluvegi, G.; Shindell, D. T.

2012-12-01

Recent improvements in air quality in the United States have been due to significant reductions in emissions of ozone and particulate matter (PM) precursors, and these downward emissions trends are expected to continue in the next few decades. To ensure that planned air quality regulations are robust under a range of possible future climates and to consider possible policy actions to mitigate climate change, it is important to characterize and understand the effects of climate change on air quality. Recent work by several research groups using global and regional models has demonstrated that there is a "climate penalty," in which climate change leads to increases in surface ozone levels in polluted continental regions. One approach to simulating future air quality at the regional scale is via dynamical downscaling, in which fields from a global climate model are used as input for a regional climate model, and these regional climate data are subsequently used for chemical transport modeling. However, recent studies using this approach have encountered problems with the downscaled regional climate fields, including unrealistic surface temperatures and misrepresentation of synoptic pressure patterns such as the Bermuda High. We developed a downscaling methodology and showed that it now reasonably simulates regional climate by evaluating it against historical data. In this work, regional climate simulations created by downscaling the NASA/GISS Model E2 global climate model are used as input for the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. CMAQ simulations over the continental United States are conducted for two 11-year time slices, one representing current climate (1995-2005) and one following Representative Concentration Pathway 6.0 from 2025-2035. Anthropogenic emissions of ozone and PM precursors are held constant at year 2006 levels for both the current and future periods. In our presentation, we will examine the changes in ozone and PM concentrations, with particular focus on exceedances of the current U.S. air quality standards, and attempt to relate the changes in air quality to the projected changes in regional climate.

Future Climate Prediction of Urban Atmosphere in A Tropical Megacity: Utilization of RCP/SSP Scenarios with an Urban Growth Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Darmanto, N. S.; Varquez, A. C. G.; Kanda, M.; Takakuwa, S.

2016-12-01

Economic development in Southeast Asia megacities leads to rapid transformation into more complicated urban configurations. These configurations, including building geometry, enhance aerodynamic drag thus reducing near-surface wind speeds. Roughness parameters representing building geometry, along with anthropogenic heat emissions, contribute to the formation of urban heat islands (UHI). All these have been reproduced successfully in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model coupled with an improved single-layer urban canopy model incorporating a realistic distribution of urban parameters and anthropogenic heat emission in the Jakarta Greater Area. We apply this technology to climate change studies by introducing future urbanization defined by urban sprawl, vertical rise in buildings, and increase anthropogenic heat emission (AHE) due to population changes, into futuristic climate modelling. To simulate 2050s future climate, pseudo-global warming method was used which relied on current and ensembles of 5 CMIP5 GCMs for 2 representative concentration pathways (RCP), 2.6 and 8.5. To determine future urbanization level, 2050 population growth and energy consumption were estimated from shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP). This allows the estimation of future urban sprawl, building geometry, and AHE using the SLEUTH urban growth model and spatial growth assumptions. Two cases representing combinations of RCP and SSP were simulated in WRF: RCP2.6-SSP1 and RCP8.5-SSP3. Each case corresponds to best and worst-case scenarios of implementing adaptation and mitigation strategies, respectively. It was found that 2-m temperature of Jakarta will increase by 0.62°C (RCP2.6) and 1.44°C (RCP8.5) solely from background climate change; almost on the same magnitude as the background temperature increase of RCP2.6 (0.5°C) and RCP8.5 (1.2°C). Compared with previous studies, the result indicates that the effect of climate change on UHI in tropical cities may be lesser than cities located in the mid-latitudes. However, it is expected that the combined effect of urbanization and climate change will result to significant changes on future urban temperature. ACK: This research was supported by the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (S-14) of the Ministry of the Environment, Japan.

Focal Solute Trapping and Global Glymphatic Pathway Impairment in a Murine Model of Multiple Microinfarcts

PubMed Central

Wang, Minghuan; Ding, Fengfei; Deng, SaiYue; Guo, Xuequn; Wang, Wei

2017-01-01

Microinfarcts occur commonly in the aging brain as a consequence of diffuse embolic events and are associated with the development of vascular dementia and Alzheimer's disease. However, the manner in which disperse microscopic lesions reduce global cognitive function and increase the risk for Alzheimer's disease is unclear. The glymphatic system, which is a brain-wide perivascular network that supports the recirculation of CSF through the brain parenchyma, facilitates the clearance of interstitial solutes including amyloid β and tau. We investigated whether glymphatic pathway function is impaired in a murine model of multiple microinfarcts induced by intraarterial injection of cholesterol crystals. The analysis showed that multiple microinfarcts markedly impaired global influx of CSF along the glymphatic pathway. Although suppression of global glymphatic function was transient, resolving within 2 weeks of injury, CSF tracers also accumulated within tissue associated with microinfarcts. The effect of diffuse microinfarcts on global glymphatic pathway function was exacerbated in the mice aged 12 months compared with the 2- to 3-month-old mice. These findings indicate that glymphatic function is focally disrupted around microinfarcts and that the aging brain is more vulnerable to this disruption than the young brain. These observations suggest that microlesions may trap proteins and other interstitial solutes within the brain parenchyma, increasing the risk of amyloid plaque formation. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Microinfarcts, small (<1 mm) ischemic lesions, are strongly associated with age-related dementia. However, how these microscopic lesions affect global cognitive function and predispose to Alzheimer's disease is unclear. The glymphatic system is a brain-wide network of channels surrounding brain blood vessels that allows CSF to exchange with interstitial fluid, clearing away cellular wastes such as amyloid β. We observed that, in mice, microinfarcts impaired global glymphatic function and solutes from the CSF became trapped in tissue associated with microinfarcts. These data suggest that small, disperse ischemic lesions can impair glymphatic function across the brain and trapping of solutes in these lesions may promote protein aggregation and neuroinflammation and eventually lead to neurodegeneration, especially in the aging brain. PMID:28188218

Focal Solute Trapping and Global Glymphatic Pathway Impairment in a Murine Model of Multiple Microinfarcts.

PubMed

Wang, Minghuan; Ding, Fengfei; Deng, SaiYue; Guo, Xuequn; Wang, Wei; Iliff, Jeffrey J; Nedergaard, Maiken

2017-03-15

Microinfarcts occur commonly in the aging brain as a consequence of diffuse embolic events and are associated with the development of vascular dementia and Alzheimer's disease. However, the manner in which disperse microscopic lesions reduce global cognitive function and increase the risk for Alzheimer's disease is unclear. The glymphatic system, which is a brain-wide perivascular network that supports the recirculation of CSF through the brain parenchyma, facilitates the clearance of interstitial solutes including amyloid β and tau. We investigated whether glymphatic pathway function is impaired in a murine model of multiple microinfarcts induced by intraarterial injection of cholesterol crystals. The analysis showed that multiple microinfarcts markedly impaired global influx of CSF along the glymphatic pathway. Although suppression of global glymphatic function was transient, resolving within 2 weeks of injury, CSF tracers also accumulated within tissue associated with microinfarcts. The effect of diffuse microinfarcts on global glymphatic pathway function was exacerbated in the mice aged 12 months compared with the 2- to 3-month-old mice. These findings indicate that glymphatic function is focally disrupted around microinfarcts and that the aging brain is more vulnerable to this disruption than the young brain. These observations suggest that microlesions may trap proteins and other interstitial solutes within the brain parenchyma, increasing the risk of amyloid plaque formation. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Microinfarcts, small (<1 mm) ischemic lesions, are strongly associated with age-related dementia. However, how these microscopic lesions affect global cognitive function and predispose to Alzheimer's disease is unclear. The glymphatic system is a brain-wide network of channels surrounding brain blood vessels that allows CSF to exchange with interstitial fluid, clearing away cellular wastes such as amyloid β. We observed that, in mice, microinfarcts impaired global glymphatic function and solutes from the CSF became trapped in tissue associated with microinfarcts. These data suggest that small, disperse ischemic lesions can impair glymphatic function across the brain and trapping of solutes in these lesions may promote protein aggregation and neuroinflammation and eventually lead to neurodegeneration, especially in the aging brain. Copyright © 2017 the authors 0270-6474/17/372870-08$15.00/0.

Future Secretariat: an innovation research coordination and governance structure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ojima, D. S.; Johan, R.; Cramer, W.; Fukushi, K.; Allard, S.

2014-12-01

Future Earth, an emerging global sustainability research program, will be managed by a novel, internationally distributed secretariat spanning the globe and providing a platform for co-design, co-production, and co-delivery of knowledge to support research on the earth system, global development and transformation toward sustainability. The Future Earth secretariat has an innovative structure consisting of five global hubs functioning as a single entity; these hubs are located in Canada, Japan, France, Sweden, and the United States. The secretariat's reach is extended through a set of regional hubs covering Latin America, the Middle East, Africa, Europe, and Asia, with the potential to expand to additional areas. This secretariat will operate under the auspices of the Future Earth Governing Council The Future Earth Secretariat will support and enable the implementation of knowledge-sharing between research and stakeholder communities to enable society to cope with and to alter global environmental trends, and to transition society toward sustainability. The secretariat will provide coordination support to over 25 global environmental core projects and committees; coordinate scientific work across the whole Future Earth agenda; develop and implement innovative mechanisms for bottom-up inputs, synthesis and integration. Future Earth, as a research program, aims to support global transformations toward sustainability through partnerships among scientific and stakeholder communities worldwide. It brings together existing international environmental research core projects associated with DIVERSITAS, the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme, the International Human Dimensions Programme, and the World Climate Research Programme—to support coordinated, interdisciplinary research that can be used by decision makers seeking to reduce their impact and provide more sustainable products and services. USGCRP partners with Future Earth through scientific participation in and annual funding for its constituent programs.

Sea level rise under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schleussner, C. F.; Nauels, A.; Rogelj, J.; Mengel, M.; Meinshausen, M.

2017-12-01

In order to assess future sea level rise and its impacts, we need to study climate change pathways combined with different scenarios of socioeconomic development. Here, we present Sea Level Rise (SLR) projections for the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) storylines and different year-2100 radiative Forcing Targets (FTs). Future SLR is estimated with a comprehensive SLR emulator that accounts for latest research on additional Antarctic rapid discharge dynamics from hydrofracturing and ice cliff instability. Across all baseline scenario realizations (no dedicated climate mitigation), we find 2100 median SLR relative to 1986-2005 of 102 cm (likely range: 77 to 135 cm) for SSP1, 118 cm (90 to 151 cm) for SSP2, 118 cm (91 to 149 cm) for SSP3, 107 cm (81 to 137 cm) for SSP4, and 144 cm (112 to 184 cm) for SSP5. The 2100 sea level responses for combined SSP-FT scenarios is dominated by the mitigation targets and yield median estimates of 68 cm (56 to 87 cm) for FT 2.6 Wm-2, 76 cm (61 to 107 cm) for FT 3.4 Wm-2, 90 cm (68 to 120 cm) for FT 4.5 Wm-2, and 105 cm (79 to 136 cm) for FT 6.0 Wm-2. Average 2081-2100 annual rates of SLR are 6 mm/yr and 19 mm/yr for the FT 2.6 Wm-2 and the baseline scenarios, respectively. Our model setup allows linking scenario-specific emission and socioeconomic indicators to projected SLR. For limiting median 2100 SSP SLR projections to below 80 cm, we find that 2050 cumulative CO2 emissions since pre-industrial should not exceed around 860 GtC, with the global coal phase-out nearly completed. For SSP mitigation scenarios, the median 2050 carbon price of 90 US$2005 tCO2-1 would correspond to a median 2100 SLR of around 80 cm. Our results confirm that rapid and early emission reductions are essential for limiting 2100 SLR.

Expansion of the Lyme Disease Vector Ixodes Scapularis in Canada Inferred from CMIP5 Climate Projections

PubMed Central

McPherson, Michelle; García-García, Almudena; Cuesta-Valero, Francisco José; Hansen-Ketchum, Patti; MacDougall, Donna; Ogden, Nicholas Hume

2017-01-01

Background: A number of studies have assessed possible climate change impacts on the Lyme disease vector, Ixodes scapularis. However, most have used surface air temperature from only one climate model simulation and/or one emission scenario, representing only one possible climate future. Objectives: We quantified effects of different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) and climate model outputs on the projected future changes in the basic reproduction number (R0) of I. scapularis to explore uncertainties in future R0 estimates. Methods: We used surface air temperature generated by a complete set of General Circulation Models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to hindcast historical (1971–2000), and to forecast future effects of climate change on the R0 of I. scapularis for the periods 2011–2040 and 2041–2070. Results: Increases in the multimodel mean R0 values estimated for both future periods, relative to 1971–2000, were statistically significant under all RCP scenarios for all of Nova Scotia, areas of New Brunswick and Quebec, Ontario south of 47°N, and Manitoba south of 52°N. When comparing RCP scenarios, only the estimated R0 mean values between RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 showed statistically significant differences for any future time period. Conclusion: Our results highlight the potential for climate change to have an effect on future Lyme disease risk in Canada even if the Paris Agreement’s goal to keep global warming below 2°C is achieved, although mitigation reducing emissions from RCP8.5 levels to those of RCP6.0 or less would be expected to slow tick invasion after the 2030s. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP57 PMID:28599266

Towards More Comprehensive Projections of Urban Heat-Related Mortality: Estimates for New York City Under Multiple Population, Adaptation, and Climate Scenarios

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Petkova, Elisaveta P.; Vink, Jan K.; Horton, Radley M.; Gasparrini, Antonio; Bader, Daniel A.; Francis, Joe D.; Kinney, Patrick L.

2016-01-01

High temperatures have substantial impacts on mortality and, with growing concerns about climate change, numerous studies have developed projections of future heat-related deaths around the world. Projections of temperature-related mortality are often limited by insufficient information necessary to formulate hypotheses about population sensitivity to high temperatures and future demographics. This study has derived projections of temperature-related mortality in New York City by taking into account future patterns of adaptation or demographic change, both of which can have profound influences on future health burdens. We adopt a novel approach to modeling heat adaptation by incorporating an analysis of the observed population response to heat in New York City over the course of eight decades. This approach projects heat-related mortality until the end of the 21st century based on observed trends in adaptation over a substantial portion of the 20th century. In addition, we incorporate a range of new scenarios for population change until the end of the 21st century. We then estimate future heat-related deaths in New York City by combining the changing temperature-mortality relationship and population scenarios with downscaled temperature projections from the 33 global climate models (GCMs) and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs).The median number of projected annual heat-related deaths across the 33 GCMs varied greatly by RCP and adaptation and population change scenario, ranging from 167 to 3331 in the 2080s compared to 638 heat-related deaths annually between 2000 and 2006.These findings provide a more complete picture of the range of potential future heat-related mortality risks across the 21st century in New York, and highlight the importance of both demographic change and adaptation responses in modifying future risks.

Impacts of global warming on residential heating and cooling degree-days in the United States

PubMed Central

Petri, Yana; Caldeira, Ken

2015-01-01

Climate change is expected to decrease heating demand and increase cooling demand for buildings and affect outdoor thermal comfort. Here, we project changes in residential heating degree-days (HDD) and cooling degree-days (CDD) for the historical (1981–2010) and future (2080–2099) periods in the United States using median results from the Climate Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations under the Representation Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario. We project future HDD and CDD values by adding CMIP5 projected changes to values based on historical observations of US climate. The sum HDD + CDD is an indicator of locations that are thermally comfortable, with low heating and cooling demand. By the end of the century, station median HDD + CDD will be reduced in the contiguous US, decreasing in the North and increasing in the South. Under the unmitigated RCP8.5 scenario, by the end of this century, in terms of HDD and CDD values considered separately, future New York, NY, is anticipated to become more like present Oklahoma City, OK; Denver, CO, becomes more like Raleigh, NC, and Seattle, WA, becomes more like San Jose, CA. These results serve as an indicator of projected climate change and can help inform decision-making. PMID:26238673

Impacts of global warming on residential heating and cooling degree-days in the United States.

PubMed

Petri, Yana; Caldeira, Ken

2015-08-04

Climate change is expected to decrease heating demand and increase cooling demand for buildings and affect outdoor thermal comfort. Here, we project changes in residential heating degree-days (HDD) and cooling degree-days (CDD) for the historical (1981-2010) and future (2080-2099) periods in the United States using median results from the Climate Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations under the Representation Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario. We project future HDD and CDD values by adding CMIP5 projected changes to values based on historical observations of US climate. The sum HDD + CDD is an indicator of locations that are thermally comfortable, with low heating and cooling demand. By the end of the century, station median HDD + CDD will be reduced in the contiguous US, decreasing in the North and increasing in the South. Under the unmitigated RCP8.5 scenario, by the end of this century, in terms of HDD and CDD values considered separately, future New York, NY, is anticipated to become more like present Oklahoma City, OK; Denver, CO, becomes more like Raleigh, NC, and Seattle, WA, becomes more like San Jose, CA. These results serve as an indicator of projected climate change and can help inform decision-making.

Dispositional optimism and sleep quality: a test of mediating pathways

PubMed Central

Cribbet, Matthew; Kent de Grey, Robert G.; Cronan, Sierra; Trettevik, Ryan; Smith, Timothy W.

2016-01-01

Dispositional optimism has been related to beneficial influences on physical health outcomes. However, its links to global sleep quality and the psychological mediators responsible for such associations are less studied. This study thus examined if trait optimism predicted global sleep quality, and if measures of subjective well-being were statistical mediators of such links. A community sample of 175 participants (93 men, 82 women) completed measures of trait optimism, depression, and life satisfaction. Global sleep quality was assessed using the Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index. Results indicated that trait optimism was a strong predictor of better PSQI global sleep quality. Moreover, this association was mediated by depression and life satisfaction in both single and multiple mediator models. These results highlight the importance of optimism for the restorative process of sleep, as well as the utility of multiple mediator models in testing distinct psychological pathways. PMID:27592128

Dispositional optimism and sleep quality: a test of mediating pathways.

PubMed

Uchino, Bert N; Cribbet, Matthew; de Grey, Robert G Kent; Cronan, Sierra; Trettevik, Ryan; Smith, Timothy W

2017-04-01

Dispositional optimism has been related to beneficial influences on physical health outcomes. However, its links to global sleep quality and the psychological mediators responsible for such associations are less studied. This study thus examined if trait optimism predicted global sleep quality, and if measures of subjective well-being were statistical mediators of such links. A community sample of 175 participants (93 men, 82 women) completed measures of trait optimism, depression, and life satisfaction. Global sleep quality was assessed using the Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index. Results indicated that trait optimism was a strong predictor of better PSQI global sleep quality. Moreover, this association was mediated by depression and life satisfaction in both single and multiple mediator models. These results highlight the importance of optimism for the restorative process of sleep, as well as the utility of multiple mediator models in testing distinct psychological pathways.

A global interaction network maps a wiring diagram of cellular function

PubMed Central

Costanzo, Michael; VanderSluis, Benjamin; Koch, Elizabeth N.; Baryshnikova, Anastasia; Pons, Carles; Tan, Guihong; Wang, Wen; Usaj, Matej; Hanchard, Julia; Lee, Susan D.; Pelechano, Vicent; Styles, Erin B.; Billmann, Maximilian; van Leeuwen, Jolanda; van Dyk, Nydia; Lin, Zhen-Yuan; Kuzmin, Elena; Nelson, Justin; Piotrowski, Jeff S.; Srikumar, Tharan; Bahr, Sondra; Chen, Yiqun; Deshpande, Raamesh; Kurat, Christoph F.; Li, Sheena C.; Li, Zhijian; Usaj, Mojca Mattiazzi; Okada, Hiroki; Pascoe, Natasha; Luis, Bryan-Joseph San; Sharifpoor, Sara; Shuteriqi, Emira; Simpkins, Scott W.; Snider, Jamie; Suresh, Harsha Garadi; Tan, Yizhao; Zhu, Hongwei; Malod-Dognin, Noel; Janjic, Vuk; Przulj, Natasa; Troyanskaya, Olga G.; Stagljar, Igor; Xia, Tian; Ohya, Yoshikazu; Gingras, Anne-Claude; Raught, Brian; Boutros, Michael; Steinmetz, Lars M.; Moore, Claire L.; Rosebrock, Adam P.; Caudy, Amy A.; Myers, Chad L.; Andrews, Brenda; Boone, Charles

2017-01-01

We generated a global genetic interaction network for Saccharomyces cerevisiae, constructing over 23 million double mutants, identifying ~550,000 negative and ~350,000 positive genetic interactions. This comprehensive network maps genetic interactions for essential gene pairs, highlighting essential genes as densely connected hubs. Genetic interaction profiles enabled assembly of a hierarchical model of cell function, including modules corresponding to protein complexes and pathways, biological processes, and cellular compartments. Negative interactions connected functionally related genes, mapped core bioprocesses, and identified pleiotropic genes, whereas positive interactions often mapped general regulatory connections among gene pairs, rather than shared functionality. The global network illustrates how coherent sets of genetic interactions connect protein complex and pathway modules to map a functional wiring diagram of the cell. PMID:27708008

Year 2000--A Global Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Blai, Boris, Jr.

By 2000 A.D. there is a great potential for progressive impoverishment of world resources and degradation of the global environment. This adaptation of the report "Global Future: Time to Act", summarizes a reconnaisance of the future as it might be if no preventative measures are taken. As the world becomes more crowded, polluted, vulnerable to…

Modeling the Earth system in the Mission to Planet Earth era

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Unninayar, Sushel; Bergman, Kenneth H.

1993-01-01

A broad overview is made of global earth system modeling in the Mission to Planet Earth (MTPE) era for the multidisciplinary audience encompassed by the Global Change Research Program (GCRP). Time scales of global system fluctuation and change are described in Section 2. Section 3 provides a rubric for modeling the global earth system, as presently understood. The ability of models to predict the future state of the global earth system and the extent to which their predictions are reliable are covered in Sections 4 and 5. The 'engineering' use of global system models (and predictions) is covered in Section 6. Section 7 covers aspects of an increasing need for improved transform algorithms and better methods to assimilate this information into global models. Future monitoring and data requirements are detailed in Section 8. Section 9 covers the NASA-initiated concept 'Mission to Planet Earth,' which employs space and ground based measurement systems to provide the scientific basis for understanding global change. Section 10 concludes this review with general remarks concerning the state of global system modeling and observing technology and the need for future research.

Businesses Partner with Schools, Community to Create Alternative Career Pathways

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Overman, Stephenie

2012-01-01

Business, education and community leaders are working together to create alternative career pathways for young people who are not profiting from the four-year college track. The new Pathways to Prosperity Network brings together the Pathways to Prosperity Project at Harvard Graduate School of Education (HGSE), Jobs for the Future (JFF) and six…

A model of pathways to artificial superintelligence catastrophe for risk and decision analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barrett, Anthony M.; Baum, Seth D.

2017-03-01

An artificial superintelligence (ASI) is an artificial intelligence that is significantly more intelligent than humans in all respects. Whilst ASI does not currently exist, some scholars propose that it could be created sometime in the future, and furthermore that its creation could cause a severe global catastrophe, possibly even resulting in human extinction. Given the high stakes, it is important to analyze ASI risk and factor the risk into decisions related to ASI research and development. This paper presents a graphical model of major pathways to ASI catastrophe, focusing on ASI created via recursive self-improvement. The model uses the established risk and decision analysis modelling paradigms of fault trees and influence diagrams in order to depict combinations of events and conditions that could lead to AI catastrophe, as well as intervention options that could decrease risks. The events and conditions include select aspects of the ASI itself as well as the human process of ASI research, development and management. Model structure is derived from published literature on ASI risk. The model offers a foundation for rigorous quantitative evaluation and decision-making on the long-term risk of ASI catastrophe.

Potential of Natural Products in the Inhibition of Adipogenesis through Regulation of PPARγ Expression and/or Its Transcriptional Activity.

PubMed

Feng, Shi; Reuss, Laura; Wang, Yu

2016-09-23

Obesity is a global health problem characterized as an increase in the mass of adipose tissue. Adipogenesis is one of the key pathways that increases the mass of adipose tissue, by which preadipocytes mature into adipocytes through cell differentiation. Peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor γ (PPARγ), the chief regulator of adipogenesis, has been acutely investigated as a molecular target for natural products in the development of anti-obesity treatments. In this review, the regulation of PPARγ expression by natural products through inhibition of CCAAT/enhancer-binding protein β (C/EBPβ) and the farnesoid X receptor (FXR), increased expression of GATA-2 and GATA-3 and activation of the Wnt/β-catenin pathway were analyzed. Furthermore, the regulation of PPARγ transcriptional activity associated with natural products through the antagonism of PPARγ and activation of Sirtuin 1 (Sirt1) and AMP-activated protein kinase (AMPK) were discussed. Lastly, regulation of mitogen-activated protein kinase (MAPK) by natural products, which might regulate both PPARγ expression and PPARγ transcriptional activity, was summarized. Understanding the role natural products play, as well as the mechanisms behind their regulation of PPARγ activity is critical for future research into their therapeutic potential for fighting obesity.

Adjuvant Treatment of Melanoma

PubMed Central

Moreno Nogueira, J. A.; Valero Arbizu, M.; Pérez Temprano, R.

2013-01-01

Melanomas represent 4% of all malignant tumors of the skin, yet account for 80% of deaths from skin cancer.While in the early stages patients can be successfully treated with surgical resection, metastatic melanoma prognosis is dismal. Several oncogenes have been identified in melanoma as BRAF, NRAS, c-Kit, and GNA11 GNAQ, each capable of activating MAPK pathway that increases cell proliferation and promotes angiogenesis, although NRAS and c-Kit also activate PI3 kinase pathway, including being more commonly BRAF activated oncogene. The treatment of choice for localised primary cutaneous melanoma is surgery plus lymphadenectomy if regional lymph nodes are involved. The justification for treatment in addition to surgery is based on the poor prognosis for high risk melanomas with a relapse index of 50–80%. Patients included in the high risk group should be assessed for adjuvant treatment with high doses of Interferon-α2b, as it is the only treatment shown to significantly improve disease free and possibly global survival. In the future we will have to analyze all these therapeutic possibilities on specific targets, probably associated with chemotherapy and/or interferon in the adjuvant treatment, if we want to change the natural history of melanomas. PMID:23476798

High-throughput in Vitro Data To Inform Prioritization of Ambient Water Monitoring and Testing for Endocrine Active Chemicals.

PubMed

Heiger-Bernays, Wendy J; Wegner, Susanna; Dix, David J

2018-01-16

The presence of industrial chemicals, consumer product chemicals, and pharmaceuticals is well documented in waters in the U.S. and globally. Most of these chemicals lack health-protective guidelines and many have been shown to have endocrine bioactivity. There is currently no systematic or national prioritization for monitoring waters for chemicals with endocrine disrupting activity. We propose ambient water bioactivity concentrations (AWBCs) generated from high throughput data as a health-based screen for endocrine bioactivity of chemicals in water. The U.S. EPA ToxCast program has screened over 1800 chemicals for estrogen receptor (ER) and androgen receptor (AR) pathway bioactivity. AWBCs are calculated for 110 ER and 212 AR bioactive chemicals using high throughput ToxCast data from in vitro screening assays and predictive pathway models, high-throughput toxicokinetic data, and data-driven assumptions about consumption of water. Chemical-specific AWBCs are compared with measured water concentrations in data sets from the greater Denver area, Minnesota lakes, and Oregon waters, demonstrating a framework for identifying endocrine bioactive chemicals. This approach can be used to screen potential cumulative endocrine activity in drinking water and to inform prioritization of future monitoring, chemical testing and pollution prevention efforts.

Greenhouse gas emissions from reservoir water surfaces: A ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Collectively, reservoirs created by dams are thought to be an important source ofgreenhouse gases (GHGs) to the atmosphere. So far, efforts to quantify, model, andmanage these emissions have been limited by data availability and inconsistenciesin methodological approach. Here we synthesize worldwide reservoir methane,carbon dioxide, and nitrous oxide emission data with three main objectives: (1) togenerate a global estimate of GHG emissions from reservoirs, (2) to identify the bestpredictors of these emissions, and (3) to consider the effect of methodology onemission estimates. We estimate that GHG emission from reservoir water surfacesaccount for 0.8 (0.5-1.2) Pg CO2-equivalents per year, equal to ~1.3 % of allanthropogenic GHG emissions, with the majority (79%) of this forcing due tomethane. We also discuss the potential for several alternative pathways such as damdegassing and downstream emissions to contribute significantly to overall GHGemissions. Although prior studies have linked reservoir GHG emissions to systemage and latitude, we find that factors related to reservoir productivity are betterpredictors of emission. Finally, as methane contributed the most to total reservoirGHG emissions, it is important that future monitoring campaigns incorporatemethane emission pathways, especially ebullition. To inform the public.

Incoming resident interest in global health: occasional travel versus a future career abroad?

PubMed

Birnberg, Jonathan M; Lypson, Monica; Anderson, R Andy; Theodosis, Christian; Kim, Jimin; Olopade, Olufunmilayo I; Arora, Vineet M

2011-09-01

While there is growing interest among residents in participating in international health experiences, it is unclear whether this interest will translate into intentions to pursue a global health career. We aimed to describe overall interest in and career intentions toward global health among interns. We administered an anonymous survey to incoming interns in all specializations during graduate medical education orientation at 3 teaching hospitals affiliated with 2 Midwestern US medical schools in June 2009. Survey domains included demographics, previous global health experiences, interest in and barriers to participating in global health experiences during residency, and plans to pursue a future global health career. Response rate was 87% (299 of 345 residents). The most commonly reported barriers to participating in global health experiences were scheduling (82%) and financial (80%) concerns. Two-thirds of interns (65%) reported they were likely to focus on global health in their future career. Of those envisioning a global health career, 77% of interns reported interest in participating in short, occasional trips in the future; and 23% of interns intended to pursue a part-time or full-time career abroad. Interns committed to a career abroad were more willing to use vacation time (73% vs. 40% of all others, respectively; P < .001) or to personally finance the trip (58% vs. 27% of all others, respectively; P  =  < .001), and were less concerned about personal safety than interns not committed (9% vs. 26% of all others, respectively; P  =  .01). Although a large proportion of incoming interns report interest in global health careers, few are committed to a global health career. Medical educators could acknowledge career plans in global health when developing global health curricula.

Spiraling pathways of global deep waters to the surface of the Southern Ocean.

PubMed

Tamsitt, Veronica; Drake, Henri F; Morrison, Adele K; Talley, Lynne D; Dufour, Carolina O; Gray, Alison R; Griffies, Stephen M; Mazloff, Matthew R; Sarmiento, Jorge L; Wang, Jinbo; Weijer, Wilbert

2017-08-02

Upwelling of global deep waters to the sea surface in the Southern Ocean closes the global overturning circulation and is fundamentally important for oceanic uptake of carbon and heat, nutrient resupply for sustaining oceanic biological production, and the melt rate of ice shelves. However, the exact pathways and role of topography in Southern Ocean upwelling remain largely unknown. Here we show detailed upwelling pathways in three dimensions, using hydrographic observations and particle tracking in high-resolution models. The analysis reveals that the northern-sourced deep waters enter the Antarctic Circumpolar Current via southward flow along the boundaries of the three ocean basins, before spiraling southeastward and upward through the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. Upwelling is greatly enhanced at five major topographic features, associated with vigorous mesoscale eddy activity. Deep water reaches the upper ocean predominantly south of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, with a spatially nonuniform distribution. The timescale for half of the deep water to upwell from 30° S to the mixed layer is ~60-90 years.Deep waters of the Atlantic, Pacific and Indian Oceans upwell in the Southern Oceanbut the exact pathways are not fully characterized. Here the authors present a three dimensional view showing a spiralling southward path, with enhanced upwelling by eddy-transport at topographic hotspots.

Emission Data For Climate-Chemistry Interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, S. J.

2012-12-01

Data on anthropogenic and natural emissions of reactive species are a critical input for studies of atmospheric chemistry and climate. The availability and characteristics of anthropogenic emissions data that can be used for such studies are reviewed and pathways for future work discuss Global and regional datasets for historical and future emissions are available, but their characteristics and applicability for specific studies differ. For the first time, a coordinated set of historical emissions (Lamarque et al 2010) and the future projections (van Vuurren et al. 2011) have been developed for use in the CMIP5 and ACCMIP long-term simulation comparison projects. These data have decadal resolution and were designed for long-term, global simulations. These data, however, lack finer-scale spatial and temporal detail that might be needed for some studies. Robust and timely updates of emissions data is generally lacking, although recent updates will be presented. While historical emission data is often treated as known, emissions are uncertain, even though this uncertainty is rarely quantified. Uncertainty varies by species and location. Inverse modeling is starting to indicate where emission data may be uncertain, which opens the way to improving these data overall. Further interaction between the chemistry modeling and inventory development communities are needed. Future projections are intrinsically uncertain, and while institutions and processes are in place to develop and review long-term century-scale scenarios, a need has remained for a wider range in shorter-term (e.g., several decade) projections. Emissions and scenario development communities have been working to fill this need. Communication across disciplines of the assumptions embedded in emissions projections remains a challenge. Atmospheric chemistry models are a central tool needed for studying chemistry-climate interactions. Simpler models, however, are also needed in order to examine interactions between different physical systems and also between the physical and human systems. Statistical models of system responses are particularly needed both to parameterize interactions in models that cannot simulate particular processes directly, and also to represent uncertainty. Coordinated model experiments are necessary to provide the information needed to develop these representations (i.e. Wild et al 2011). Lamarque, J. F, et al. (2010) Historical (1850-2000) gridded anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions of reactive gases and aerosols: methodology and application. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 10 pp. 7017-7039. doi:10.5194/acp-10-7017-2010 Van Vuuren, D, JA Edmonds, M Kainuma, K Riahi, AM Thomson, KA Hibbard, G Hurtt, T Kram, V Krey, JF Lamarque, matsui, M Meinhausen, N Nakicenovic, SJ Smith, and SK Rose. 2011. "The Representative Concentration Pathways: An Overview." Climatic Change 109 (1-2) 5-31. doi: 10.1007/s10584-011-0148-z. Wild, O., et al. (2012) Modelling future changes in surface ozone: A parameterized approach. Atmos. Chem. Phys., 12, 2037-2054, doi:10.5194/acp-12-2037-2012.

Assessment of United States and Japanese Athletic Trainers' Satisfaction with Current Ascension Pathways and Interest in Future Transnational Certification

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Presuto, Dax A.

2013-01-01

Background: The purpose of this cross-system and cross-cultural study was to investigate the current athletic training systems in the US and Japan, to assess US and Japanese athletic trainers' satisfaction with current athletic training ascension pathways in their respective country and to determine their interest in future transnational…

Geoscience Academic Provenance: A Comparison of Undergraduate Students' Pathways to Faculty Pathways

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Houlton, H. R.; Keane, C. M.; Wilson, C. E.

2012-12-01

Most Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM) disciplines have a direct recruiting method of high school science courses to supply their undergraduate majors. However, recruitment and retention of students into geoscience academic programs, who will be the future workforce, remains an important issue. The geoscience community is reaching a critical point in its ability to supply enough geoscientists to meet the current and near-future demand. Previous work done by Houlton (2010) determined that undergraduate geoscience majors follow distinct pathways when pursuing their degree and career. These pathways are comprised of students' interests, experiences, goals and career aspirations, which are depicted in six pathway steps. Three population groups were determined from the original 17 participants, which exhibited differences in pathway trajectories. Continued data collection efforts developed and refined the pathway framework. As part of an informal workshop activity, data were collected from 27 participants who are underrepresented minority early-career and future faculty in the geosciences. In addition, 20 geoscience departments' Heads and Chairs participated in an online survey about their pathway trajectories. Pathways were determined from each of these new sample populations and compared against the original geoscience undergraduate student participants. Several pathway components consistently spanned across sample populations. Identification of these themes have illuminated broad geoscience-related interests, experiences and aspirations that can be used to broadly impact recruitment and retention initiatives for our discipline. Furthermore, fundamental differences between participants' ages, stages in career and racial/ethnic backgrounds have exhibited subtle nuances in their geoscience pathway trajectories. In particular, those who've had research experiences, who think "creativity" is an important aspect of a geoscience career and those who want to share their knowledge with students may be more inclined to pursue academic positions. Indicators, like these, expand the pathway model and foster the development of a more robust framework for recruitment and retention in academia, as well as industry.

Futurism and Education: Some Perspectives for Global Educators. Occasional Papers Series, No. 3.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Norris, Neal; Salomon, Manjula

A working knowledge of futurist perspective is becoming essential to educators. While global education acquaints students with their responsibilities as members of a group extending beyond their personal and local boundaries, futurism awakens students to the interconnectedness of past, present, and future. Although debate exists over whether it is…

Biomarkers and patient selection for PI3K/Akt/mTOR targeted therapies: current status and future directions.

PubMed

Bartlett, John M S

2010-11-01

The phosphatidylinositol 3-kinase (PI3K)/Akt/ mammalian target of rapamycin (mTOR) pathway regulates a broad spectrum of physiologic and pathologic processes. In breast cancer mutation, amplification, deletion, methylation, and posttranslational modifications lead to significant dysregulation of this pathway leading to more aggressive and potentially drug-resistant disease. Multiple novel agents, targeting different nodes within the pathway are currently under development by both commercial and academic partners. The key to the successful validation of these markers is selection of the appropriate patient groups using biomarkers. This article reviews current progress in this area, highlighting the key molecular alterations described in genes within the PI3K/Akt/mTOR pathway that may have an effect on response to current and future therapeutic interventions. Herein, gaps in current knowledge are highlighted and suggestions for future research directions given that may facilitate biomarker development in partnership with current drug development.

The challenge to keep global warming below 2 °C

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peters, Glen P.; Andrew, Robbie M.; Boden, Tom; Canadell, Josep G.; Ciais, Philippe; Le Quéré, Corinne; Marland, Gregg; Raupach, Michael R.; Wilson, Charlie

2013-01-01

The latest carbon dioxide emissions continue to track the high end of emission scenarios, making it even less likely global warming will stay below 2 °C. A shift to a 2 °C pathway requires immediate significant and sustained global mitigation, with a probable reliance on net negative emissions in the longer term.

Advancing the adverse outcome pathway framework - An international horizon scanning approach (presentation)

EPA Science Inventory

In preparation for a Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry Pellston Workshop titled “Advancing the Adverse Outcome Pathway (AOP) Concept: An International Horizon Scanning Approach,” a horizon scanning effort was undertaken to gather input from the global ...

Integrative Analysis of the Physical Transport Network into Australia.

PubMed

Cope, Robert C; Ross, Joshua V; Wittmann, Talia A; Prowse, Thomas A A; Cassey, Phillip

2016-01-01

Effective biosecurity is necessary to protect nations and their citizens from a variety of threats, including emerging infectious diseases, agricultural or environmental pests and pathogens, and illegal wildlife trade. The physical pathways by which these threats are transported internationally, predominantly shipping and air traffic, have undergone significant growth and changes in spatial distributions in recent decades. An understanding of the specific pathways and donor-traffic hotspots created by this integrated physical transport network is vital for the development of effective biosecurity strategies into the future. In this study, we analysed the physical transport network into Australia over the period 1999-2012. Seaborne and air traffic were weighted to calculate a "weighted cumulative impact" score for each source region worldwide, each year. High risk source regions, and those source regions that underwent substantial changes in risk over the study period, were determined. An overall risk ranking was calculated by integrating across all possible weighting combinations. The source regions having greatest overall physical connectedness with Australia were Singapore, which is a global transport hub, and the North Island of New Zealand, a close regional trading partner with Australia. Both those regions with large amounts of traffic across multiple vectors (e.g., Hong Kong), and those with high levels of traffic of only one type (e.g., Bali, Indonesia with respect to passenger flights), were represented among high risk source regions. These data provide a baseline model for the transport of individuals and commodities against which the effectiveness of biosecurity controls may be assessed, and are a valuable tool in the development of future biosecurity policy.

Integrative Analysis of the Physical Transport Network into Australia

PubMed Central

Cope, Robert C.; Ross, Joshua V.; Wittmann, Talia A.; Prowse, Thomas A. A.; Cassey, Phillip

2016-01-01

Effective biosecurity is necessary to protect nations and their citizens from a variety of threats, including emerging infectious diseases, agricultural or environmental pests and pathogens, and illegal wildlife trade. The physical pathways by which these threats are transported internationally, predominantly shipping and air traffic, have undergone significant growth and changes in spatial distributions in recent decades. An understanding of the specific pathways and donor-traffic hotspots created by this integrated physical transport network is vital for the development of effective biosecurity strategies into the future. In this study, we analysed the physical transport network into Australia over the period 1999–2012. Seaborne and air traffic were weighted to calculate a “weighted cumulative impact” score for each source region worldwide, each year. High risk source regions, and those source regions that underwent substantial changes in risk over the study period, were determined. An overall risk ranking was calculated by integrating across all possible weighting combinations. The source regions having greatest overall physical connectedness with Australia were Singapore, which is a global transport hub, and the North Island of New Zealand, a close regional trading partner with Australia. Both those regions with large amounts of traffic across multiple vectors (e.g., Hong Kong), and those with high levels of traffic of only one type (e.g., Bali, Indonesia with respect to passenger flights), were represented among high risk source regions. These data provide a baseline model for the transport of individuals and commodities against which the effectiveness of biosecurity controls may be assessed, and are a valuable tool in the development of future biosecurity policy. PMID:26881782

Impact of Climate Change on Heat-Related Mortality in Jiangsu Province, China

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chen, Kai; Horton, Radley M.; Bader, Daniel A.; Lesk, Corey; Jiang, Leiwen; Jones, Bryan; Zhou, Lian; Chen, Xiaodong; Bi, Jun; Kinney, Patrick L.

2017-01-01

A warming climate is anticipated to increase the future heat-related total mortality in urban areas. However, little evidence has been reported for cause-specific mortality or nonurban areas. Here we assessed the impact of climate change on heat-related total and cause-specific mortality in both urban and rural counties of Jiangsu Province, China, in the next five decades. To address the potential uncertainty in projecting future heat-related mortality, we applied localized urban- and nonurban-specific exposure response functions, six population projections including a no population change scenario and five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), and 42 temperature projections from 21 global-scale general circulation models and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Results showed that projected warmer temperatures in 2016-2040 and 2041-2065 will lead to higher heat-related mortality for total non-accidental, cardiovascular, respiratory, stroke, ischemic heart disease (IHD), and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) causes occurring annually during May to September in Jiangsu Province, China. Nonurban residents in Jiangsu will suffer from more excess heat-related cause-specific mortality in 2016-2065 than urban residents. Variations across climate models and RCPs dominated the uncertainty of heat-related mortality estimation whereas population size change only had limited influence. Our findings suggest that targeted climate change mitigation and adaptation measures should be taken in both urban and nonurban areas of Jiangsu Province. Specific public health interventions should be focused on the leading causes of death (stroke, IHD, and COPD), whose health burden will be amplified by a warming climate.

Impact of climate change on heat-related mortality in Jiangsu Province, China.

PubMed

Chen, Kai; Horton, Radley M; Bader, Daniel A; Lesk, Corey; Jiang, Leiwen; Jones, Bryan; Zhou, Lian; Chen, Xiaodong; Bi, Jun; Kinney, Patrick L

2017-05-01

A warming climate is anticipated to increase the future heat-related total mortality in urban areas. However, little evidence has been reported for cause-specific mortality or nonurban areas. Here we assessed the impact of climate change on heat-related total and cause-specific mortality in both urban and rural counties of Jiangsu Province, China, in the next five decades. To address the potential uncertainty in projecting future heat-related mortality, we applied localized urban- and nonurban-specific exposure response functions, six population projections including a no population change scenario and five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), and 42 temperature projections from 21 global-scale general circulation models and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Results showed that projected warmer temperatures in 2016-2040 and 2041-2065 will lead to higher heat-related mortality for total non-accidental, cardiovascular, respiratory, stroke, ischemic heart disease (IHD), and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) causes occurring annually during May to September in Jiangsu Province, China. Nonurban residents in Jiangsu will suffer from more excess heat-related cause-specific mortality in 2016-2065 than urban residents. Variations across climate models and RCPs dominated the uncertainty of heat-related mortality estimation whereas population size change only had limited influence. Our findings suggest that targeted climate change mitigation and adaptation measures should be taken in both urban and nonurban areas of Jiangsu Province. Specific public health interventions should be focused on the leading causes of death (stroke, IHD, and COPD), whose health burden will be amplified by a warming climate. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessment of CORDEX-South Asia experiments for monsoonal precipitation over Himalayan region for future climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choudhary, A.; Dimri, A. P.

2018-04-01

Precipitation is one of the important climatic indicators in the global climate system. Probable changes in monsoonal (June, July, August and September; hereafter JJAS) mean precipitation in the Himalayan region for three different greenhouse gas emission scenarios (i.e. representative concentration pathways or RCPs) and two future time slices (near and far) are estimated from a set of regional climate simulations performed under Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment-South Asia (CORDEX-SA) project. For each of the CORDEX-SA simulations and their ensemble, projections of near future (2020-2049) and far future (2070-2099) precipitation climatology with respect to corresponding present climate (1970-2005) over Himalayan region are presented. The variability existing over each of the future time slices is compared with the present climate variability to determine the future changes in inter annual fluctuations of monsoonal mean precipitation. The long-term (1970-2099) trend (mm/day/year) of monsoonal mean precipitation spatially distributed as well as averaged over Himalayan region is analyzed to detect any change across twenty-first century as well as to assess model uncertainty in simulating the precipitation changes over this period. The altitudinal distribution of difference in trend of future precipitation from present climate existing over each of the time slices is also studied to understand any elevation dependency of change in precipitation pattern. Except for a part of the Hindu-Kush area in western Himalayan region which shows drier condition, the CORDEX-SA experiments project in general wetter/drier conditions in near future for western/eastern Himalayan region, a scenario which gets further intensified in far future. Although, a gradually increasing precipitation trend is seen throughout the twenty-first century in carbon intensive scenarios, the distribution of trend with elevation presents a very complex picture with lower elevations showing a greater trend in far-future under RCP8.5 when compared with higher elevations.

Global isotope metabolomics reveals adaptive strategies for nitrogen assimilation

DOE PAGES

Kurczy, Michael E.; Forsberg, Erica M.; Thorgersen, Michael P.; ...

2016-04-05

Nitrogen cycling is a microbial metabolic process essential for global ecological/agricultural balance. To investigate the link between the well-established ammonium and the alternative nitrate assimilation metabolic pathways, global isotope metabolomics was employed to examine three nitrate reducing bacteria using 15NO 3 as a nitrogen source. In contrast to a control ( Pseudomonas stutzeri RCH2), the results show that two of the isolates from Oak Ridge, Tennessee ( Pseudomonas N2A2 and N2E2) utilize nitrate and ammonia for assimilation concurrently with differential labeling observed across multiple classes of metabolites including amino acids and nucleotides. The data reveal that the N2A2 and N2E2more » strains conserve nitrogen-containing metabolites, indicating that the nitrate assimilation pathway is a conservation mechanism for the assimilation of nitrogen. Co-utilization of nitrate and ammonia is likely an adaption to manage higher levels of nitrite since the denitrification pathways utilized by the N2A2 and N2E2 strains from the Oak Ridge site are predisposed to the accumulation of the toxic nitrite. In conclusion, the use of global isotope metabolomics allowed for this adaptive strategy to be investigated, which would otherwise not have been possible to decipher.« less

Global isotope metabolomics reveals adaptive strategies for nitrogen assimilation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kurczy, Michael E.; Forsberg, Erica M.; Thorgersen, Michael P.

Nitrogen cycling is a microbial metabolic process essential for global ecological/agricultural balance. To investigate the link between the well-established ammonium and the alternative nitrate assimilation metabolic pathways, global isotope metabolomics was employed to examine three nitrate reducing bacteria using 15NO 3 as a nitrogen source. In contrast to a control ( Pseudomonas stutzeri RCH2), the results show that two of the isolates from Oak Ridge, Tennessee ( Pseudomonas N2A2 and N2E2) utilize nitrate and ammonia for assimilation concurrently with differential labeling observed across multiple classes of metabolites including amino acids and nucleotides. The data reveal that the N2A2 and N2E2more » strains conserve nitrogen-containing metabolites, indicating that the nitrate assimilation pathway is a conservation mechanism for the assimilation of nitrogen. Co-utilization of nitrate and ammonia is likely an adaption to manage higher levels of nitrite since the denitrification pathways utilized by the N2A2 and N2E2 strains from the Oak Ridge site are predisposed to the accumulation of the toxic nitrite. In conclusion, the use of global isotope metabolomics allowed for this adaptive strategy to be investigated, which would otherwise not have been possible to decipher.« less

Global biogeography of microbial nitrogen-cycling traits in soil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nelson, M.; Martiny, A.; Martiny, J. B. H.

2016-12-01

Microorganisms drive much of the Earth's nitrogen (N) cycle. However, despite their importance, many ecosystem models do not explicitly consider microbial communities and their functions. One obstacle in doing this is that we lack a complete understanding of the role that microbes play in biogeochemical processes. To address this challenge we used metagenomics to assess various N cycling traits of soil microorganisms in samples from around the globe. As measurable characteristics of an organism, traits can be used to quantify the role of microbes in ecosystem processes. Using 365 publically available soil metagenomes, we characterized the biogeography of microbial N cycling traits, defined as the abundance and composition of eight N pathways. We found strong biogeographic patterns in the frequency of N pathway traits; however, our models explained much less variation in taxonomic composition across sites. Focusing on individual N pathways, we identified the prominent taxa harboring these pathways. In addition, we found an unexpectedly high frequency of Bacteria encoding the dissimilatory nitrate reduction to ammonium (DNRA) pathway, a little studied N cycle process in soils. Finally, across all N pathways, phylogenetic analysis revealed that some phyla seem to be N cycle generalists (i.e delta-Proteobacteria), with the potential to carry out many N transformations, whereas others seem to be specialists (i.e. Cyanobacteria). As the most comprehensive map to date of the global distribution of microbial N traits, this study provides a springboard for further investigation of the prominent players in N cycling in soils. Overall, biogeographic patterns of traits can provide a foundation for understanding how microbial diversity impacts ecosystem processes and ultimately predicting how this diversity may shift in the face of global change.

A Soil Service Index: Potential Soil Services to Society under Scenarios of Human Land Use and Population Growth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hugelius, G.; Ahlström, A.; Loisel, J.; Harden, J. W.

2017-12-01

Soils provide numerous and indispensable services to ecological systems and human societies. As human populations and human land use changes, the capacity of soils to maintain these services may also change. To investigate this we provide the first global scale study based on the soil service index (SSI; see presentations by Harden et al. and Loisel et al. in this session for more details). In this index multiple soil services are numerically or quantitatively assessed, normalized to a unit-less scale for purposes of intercomparability. Soil services assessed under the SSI include organic matter and/or organic carbon storage; plant productivity; CO2 or GHG exchange with the atmosphere; water storage capacity; and nutrient storage and/or availability. The SSI may be applied at any scale. Here we present a first global application of the SSI and provide broad-scale analyses of soil service spatial distributions. We assess how the SSI will change under projected changes in human societies populations and human land use (following representative concentration pathway scenarios). Present and future potential utilization and vulnerability of soil resources are analyzed in the context of human population distributions and its projected changes. The SSI is designed to be broadly useful across scientific, governance and resource management organizations. To exemplify this, the parameterization of this is global soil service estimate is based on only open source input data.

Global climate targets and future consumption level: an evaluation of the required GHG intensity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Girod, Bastien; van Vuuren, Detlef Peter; Hertwich, Edgar G.

2013-03-01

Discussion and analysis on international climate policy often focuses on the rather abstract level of total national and regional greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. At some point, however, emission reductions need to be translated to consumption level. In this article, we evaluate the implications of the strictest IPCC representative concentration pathway for key consumption categories (food, travel, shelter, goods, services). We use IPAT style identities to account for possible growth in global consumption levels and indicate the required change in GHG emission intensity for each category (i.e. GHG emission per calorie, person kilometer, square meter, kilogram, US dollar). The proposed concept provides guidance for product developers, consumers and policymakers. To reach the 2 °C climate target (2.1 tCO2-eq. per capita in 2050), the GHG emission intensity of consumption has to be reduced by a factor of 5 in 2050. The climate targets on consumption level allow discussion of the feasibility of this climate target at product and consumption level. In most consumption categories products in line with this climate target are available. For animal food and air travel, reaching the GHG intensity targets with product modifications alone will be challenging and therefore structural changes in consumption patterns might be needed. The concept opens up possibilities for further research on potential solutions on the consumption and product level to global climate mitigation.

A Multicomponent Library Resource Model to Enhance Academic Global Health Education Among Residency Programs.

PubMed

Patel, Rupa R; Ravichandran, Sandhiya; Doering, Michelle M; Hardi, Angela C

2017-01-01

Global health is becoming an increasingly important component of medical education. Medical libraries have an opportunity to assist global health residents with their information needs, but first it is important to identify what those needs are and how best they can be addressed. This article reports a collaboration between global health faculty and an academic medical librarian to assess the information needs of global health pathway residents and how assessment data are used to create a multicomponent program designed to enhance global health education.

Global ring satellite communications system for future broadband network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iida, Takashi; Suzuki, Yoshiaki; Arimoto, Yoshinori; Akaishi, Akira

2005-04-01

The purpose of this paper is to examine a cost model of a global ring satellite communications system as a 2G-satellite (second generation Internet satellite) for the future Internet satellite, whose capacity is around 120 Gbps. The authors proposed the future needs of research and development of communications satellite for the next 30 years and also proposed the approach of three generations for the future Internet satellites. First, the paper reviews and updates the original proposal for the future needs of communications satellite, considering the recent development of the quantum communication technology. It also examines the communications satellite applicability for bridging the digital divide in the Asia-Oceania as an example. The paper clarifies this possibility of communications satellite by showing various relationships among Internet penetration, land area, population growth, etc. Second, the cost of the global ring satellite is examined. The user terminal is considered as a combination of an earth terminal and wireless local area network for a user community. This paper shows that the global ring satellite has a possibility of a good cost-competitiveness to the terrestrial system because of the global communications system can be configured only by satellite system.

Dopamine-System Genes and Cultural Acquisition: The Norm Sensitivity Hypothesis

PubMed Central

Kitayama, Shinobu; King, Anthony; Hsu, Ming; Liberzon, Israel; Yoon, Carolyn

2016-01-01

Previous research in cultural psychology shows that cultures vary in the social orientation of independence and interdependence. To date, however, little is known about how people may acquire such global patterns of cultural behavior or cultural norms. Nor is it clear what genetic mechanisms may underlie the acquisition of cultural norms. Here, we draw on recent evidence for certain genetic variability in the susceptibility to environmental influences and propose a norm sensitivity hypothesis, which holds that people acquire culture, and rules of cultural behaviors, through reinforcement-mediated social learning processes. One corollary of the hypothesis is that the degree of cultural acquisition should be influenced by polymorphic variants of genes involved in dopaminergic neural pathways, which have been widely implicated in reinforcement learning. We reviewed initial evidence for this prediction and discussed challenges and directions for future research. PMID:28491931

Qualitative, semi-quantitative, and quantitative simulation of the osmoregulation system in yeast

PubMed Central

Pang, Wei; Coghill, George M.

2015-01-01

In this paper we demonstrate how Morven, a computational framework which can perform qualitative, semi-quantitative, and quantitative simulation of dynamical systems using the same model formalism, is applied to study the osmotic stress response pathway in yeast. First the Morven framework itself is briefly introduced in terms of the model formalism employed and output format. We then built a qualitative model for the biophysical process of the osmoregulation in yeast, and a global qualitative-level picture was obtained through qualitative simulation of this model. Furthermore, we constructed a Morven model based on existing quantitative model of the osmoregulation system. This model was then simulated qualitatively, semi-quantitatively, and quantitatively. The obtained simulation results are presented with an analysis. Finally the future development of the Morven framework for modelling the dynamic biological systems is discussed. PMID:25864377

The Impact of Different Sources of Fluctuations on Mutual Information in Biochemical Networks

PubMed Central

Chevalier, Michael; Venturelli, Ophelia; El-Samad, Hana

2015-01-01

Stochastic fluctuations in signaling and gene expression limit the ability of cells to sense the state of their environment, transfer this information along cellular pathways, and respond to it with high precision. Mutual information is now often used to quantify the fidelity with which information is transmitted along a cellular pathway. Mutual information calculations from experimental data have mostly generated low values, suggesting that cells might have relatively low signal transmission fidelity. In this work, we demonstrate that mutual information calculations might be artificially lowered by cell-to-cell variability in both initial conditions and slowly fluctuating global factors across the population. We carry out our analysis computationally using a simple signaling pathway and demonstrate that in the presence of slow global fluctuations, every cell might have its own high information transmission capacity but that population averaging underestimates this value. We also construct a simple synthetic transcriptional network and demonstrate using experimental measurements coupled to computational modeling that its operation is dominated by slow global variability, and hence that its mutual information is underestimated by a population averaged calculation. PMID:26484538

Carbon plants nutrition and global food security

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mariani, Luigi

2017-02-01

To evaluate the effects of carbon nutrition on agricultural productivity, a physiological-process-based crop simulation model, driven by the 1961-1990 monthly climate data from global FAO dataset, was developed and applied to four crops (wheat, maize, rice and soybean -WMRS) which account for 64% of the global caloric consumption of humans. Five different temperatures and CO2 scenarios (current; glacial; pre-industrial; future_1 with 560 ppmv for CO2 and +2 °C for temperature; and future_2 with 800 ppmv for CO2 and +4 °C) were investigated. The relative values of WMRS global productions for past and future scenarios were, respectively, 49% of the present-day scenario for glacial, 82% for pre-industrial, 115% for future_1 and 124% for future_2. A sensitive growth of productivity of future scenarios (respectively to 117% and 134%) was observed if the northward shift of crops was allowed, and a strong increase was obtained without water limitation (from 151% to 157% for the five scenarios) and without biotic and abiotic stresses (from 30% to 40% for WMRS subject to the current scenario). Furthermore since the beginning of the Green Revolution (roughly happened between the '30s and the '50s of the twentieth century) production losses due to sub-optimal levels of CO2 and to biotic and abiotic stresses have been masked by the strong technological innovation trend still ongoing, which, in the last century, led to a strong increase in the global crop production (+400%-600%). These results show the crucial relevance of the future choices of research and development in agriculture (genetics, land reclamation, irrigation, plant protection, and so on) to ensure global food security.

Everybody wants it done but nobody wants to do it: an exploration of the barrier and enablers of critical components towards creating a clinical pathway for anxiety and depression in cancer.

PubMed

Rankin, Nicole M; Butow, Phyllis N; Thein, Thida; Robinson, Tracy; Shaw, Joanne M; Price, Melanie A; Clover, Kerrie; Shaw, Tim; Grimison, Peter

2015-01-22

This study aimed to explore barriers to and enablers for future implementation of a draft clinical pathway for anxiety and depression in cancer patients in the Australian context. Health professionals reviewed a draft clinical pathway and participated in qualitative interviews about the delivery of psychosocial care in their setting, individual components of the draft pathway, and barriers and enablers for its future implementation. Five interrelated themes were identified: ownership; resources and responsibility; education and training; patient reluctance; and integration with health services beyond oncology. The five themes were perceived as both barriers and enablers and provide a basis for an implementation plan that includes strategies to overcome barriers. The next steps are to design and deliver the clinical pathway with specific implementation strategies that address team ownership, endorsement by leaders, education and training modules designed for health professionals and patients and identify ways to integrate the pathway into existing cancer services.

River flood risk in Jakarta under scenarios of future change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Budiyono, Yus; Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.; Tollenaar, Daniel; Ward, Philip J.

2016-03-01

Given the increasing impacts of flooding in Jakarta, methods for assessing current and future flood risk are required. In this paper, we use the Damagescanner-Jakarta risk model to project changes in future river flood risk under scenarios of climate change, land subsidence, and land use change. Damagescanner-Jakarta is a simple flood risk model that estimates flood risk in terms of annual expected damage, based on input maps of flood hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. We estimate baseline flood risk at USD 186 million p.a. Combining all future scenarios, we simulate a median increase in risk of +180 % by 2030. The single driver with the largest contribution to that increase is land subsidence (+126 %). We simulated the impacts of climate change by combining two scenarios of sea level rise with simulations of changes in 1-day extreme precipitation totals from five global climate models (GCMs) forced by the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The results are highly uncertain; the median change in risk due to climate change alone by 2030 is a decrease by -46 %, but we simulate an increase in risk under 12 of the 40 GCM-RCP-sea level rise combinations. Hence, we developed probabilistic risk scenarios to account for this uncertainty. If land use change by 2030 takes places according to the official Jakarta Spatial Plan 2030, risk could be reduced by 12 %. However, if land use change in the future continues at the same rate as the last 30 years, large increases in flood risk will take place. Finally, we discuss the relevance of the results for flood risk management in Jakarta.

75 FR 67642 - Investment of Customer Funds and Funds Held in an Account for Foreign Futures and Foreign Options...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-11-03

...), Investment Company Institute (ICI), MF Global Inc. (MF Global), National Futures Association (NFA), Newedge... Global, Newedge and FC Stone. CME asserted that only ``a small subset of the complete list of Regulation... today address the elimination of credit ratings from Regulations 1.49 and 4.24 and the removal of...

Review of Mitigation Costs for Stabilizing Greenhouse Gas Concentrations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Ruijven, B. J.; O'Neill, B. C.

2014-12-01

Mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions to avoid future climate change comes at a cost, because low-emission technologies are more expensive than GHG-emitting technology options. The increase in mitigation cost is not linearly related to the stabilization level, though: the first emission reductions are relatively cheap, but deeper emission reductions become more expensive. Therefore, emission reduction to medium levels of GHG concentrations , such as 4.5 or 6 W/m2, is considerably cheaper than emission reduction to low levels of GHG concentrations, such as 2.6 or 3.7 W/m2. Moreover, mitigation costs are influenced by many other aspects than the targeted mitigation level alone, such as whether or not certain technologies are available or societally acceptable (Kriegler et al., 2014); the rate of technological progress and cost reduction of low-emission technologies; the level of final energy demand (Riahi et al., 2011), and the level of global cooperation and trade in emission allowances (den Elzen and Höhne, 2010). This paper reviews the existing literature on greenhouse gas mitigation costs. We analyze the available data on mitigation costs and draw conclusions on how these change for different stabilization levels of GHG concentrations. We will take into account the aspects of technology, energy demand, and cooperation in distinguishing differences between scenarios and stabilization levels. References: den Elzen, M., Höhne, N., 2010. Sharing the reduction effort to limit global warming to 2C. Climate Policy 10, 247-260. Kriegler, E., Weyant, J., Blanford, G., Krey, V., Clarke, L., Edmonds, J., Fawcett, A., Luderer, G., Riahi, K., Richels, R., Rose, S., Tavoni, M., Vuuren, D., 2014. The role of technology for achieving climate policy objectives: overview of the EMF 27 study on global technology and climate policy strategies. Climatic Change, 1-15. Riahi, K., Dentener, F., Gielen, D., Grubler, A., Jewell, J., Klimont, Z., Krey, V., McCollum, D., Pachauri, S., Rao, S., van Ruijven, B., van Vuuren, D.P., Wilson, C., 2011. Energy Pathways for Sustainable Development, The Global Energy Assessment: Toward a More Sustainable Future. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria and Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.

Projection of temperature-related mortality due to cardiovascular disease in beijing under different climate change, population, and adaptation scenarios.

PubMed

Zhang, Boya; Li, Guoxing; Ma, Yue; Pan, Xiaochuan

2018-04-01

Human health faces unprecedented challenges caused by climate change. Thus, studies of the effect of temperature change on total mortality have been conducted in numerous countries. However, few of those studies focused on temperature-related mortality due to cardiovascular disease (CVD) or considered future population changes and adaptation to climate change. We present herein a projection of temperature-related mortality due to CVD under different climate change, population, and adaptation scenarios in Beijing, a megacity in China. To this end, 19 global circulation models (GCMs), 3 representative concentration pathways (RCPs), 3 socioeconomic pathways, together with generalized linear models and distributed lag non-linear models, were used to project future temperature-related CVD mortality during periods centered around the years 2050 and 2070. The number of temperature-related CVD deaths in Beijing is projected to increase by 3.5-10.2% under different RCP scenarios compared with that during the baseline period. Using the same GCM, the future daily maximum temperatures projected using the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios showed a gradually increasing trend. When population change is considered, the annual rate of increase in temperature-related CVD deaths was up to fivefold greater than that under no-population-change scenarios. The decrease in the number of cold-related deaths did not compensate for the increase in that of heat-related deaths, leading to a general increase in the number of temperature-related deaths due to CVD in Beijing. In addition, adaptation to climate change may enhance rather than ameliorate the effect of climate change, as the increase in cold-related CVD mortality greater than the decrease in heat-related CVD mortality in the adaptation scenarios will result in an increase in the total number of temperature-related CVD mortalities. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The transcriptional landscape of Rhizoctonia solani AG1-IA during infection of soybean as defined by RNA-seq

PubMed Central

Copley, Tanya R.; Duggavathi, Raj

2017-01-01

Rhizoctonia solani Kühn infects most plant families and can cause significant agricultural yield losses worldwide; however, plant resistance to this disease is rare and short-lived, and therefore poorly understood, resulting in the use of chemical pesticides for its control. Understanding the functional responses of this pathogen during host infection can help elucidate the molecular mechanisms that are necessary for successful host invasion. Using the pathosystem model soybean-R. solani anastomosis group AG1-IA, we examined the global transcriptional responses of R. solani during early and late infection stages of soybean by applying an RNA-seq approach. Approximately, 148 million clean paired-end reads, representing 93% of R. solani AG1-IA genes, were obtained from the sequenced libraries. Analysis of R. solani AG1-IA transcripts during soybean invasion revealed that most genes were similarly expressed during early and late infection stages, and only 11% and 15% of the expressed genes were differentially expressed during early and late infection stages, respectively. Analyses of the differentially expressed genes (DEGs) revealed shifts in molecular pathways involved in antibiotics biosynthesis, amino acid and carbohydrate metabolism, as well as pathways involved in antioxidant production. Furthermore, several KEGG pathways were unique to each time point, particularly the up-regulation of genes related to toxin degradation (e.g., nicotinate and nicotinamid metabolism) at onset of necrosis, and those linked to synthesis of anti-microbial compounds and pyridoxine (vitamin B6) biosynthesis 24 h.p.o. of necrosis. These results suggest that particular genes or pathways are required for either invasion or disease development. Overall, this study provides the first insights into R. solani AG1-IA transcriptome responses to soybean invasion providing beneficial information for future targeted control methods of this successful pathogen. PMID:28877263

De novo transcriptome analysis and microsatellite marker development for population genetic study of a serious insect pest, Rhopalosiphum padi (L.) (Hemiptera: Aphididae).

PubMed

Duan, Xinle; Wang, Kang; Su, Sha; Tian, Ruizheng; Li, Yuting; Chen, Maohua

2017-01-01

The bird cherry-oat aphid, Rhopalosiphum padi (L.), is one of the most abundant aphid pests of cereals and has a global distribution. Next-generation sequencing (NGS) is a rapid and efficient method for developing molecular markers. However, transcriptomic and genomic resources of R. padi have not been investigated. In this study, we used transcriptome information obtained by RNA-Seq to develop polymorphic microsatellites for investigating population genetics in this species. The transcriptome of R. padi was sequenced on an Illumina HiSeq 2000 platform. A total of 114.4 million raw reads with a GC content of 40.03% was generated. The raw reads were cleaned and assembled into 29,467 unigenes with an N50 length of 1,580 bp. Using several public databases, 82.47% of these unigenes were annotated. Of the annotated unigenes, 8,022 were assigned to COG pathways, 9,895 were assigned to GO pathways, and 14,586 were mapped to 257 KEGG pathways. A total of 7,936 potential microsatellites were identified in 5,564 unigenes, 60 of which were selected randomly and amplified using specific primer pairs. Fourteen loci were found to be polymorphic in the four R. padi populations. The transcriptomic data presented herein will facilitate gene discovery, gene analyses, and development of molecular markers for future studies of R. padi and other closely related aphid species.

Microbial regulation of terrestrial nitrous oxide formation: understanding the biological pathways for prediction of emission rates.

PubMed

Hu, Hang-Wei; Chen, Deli; He, Ji-Zheng

2015-09-01

The continuous increase of the greenhouse gas nitrous oxide (N2O) in the atmosphere due to increasing anthropogenic nitrogen input in agriculture has become a global concern. In recent years, identification of the microbial assemblages responsible for soil N2O production has substantially advanced with the development of molecular technologies and the discoveries of novel functional guilds and new types of metabolism. However, few practical tools are available to effectively reduce in situ soil N2O flux. Combating the negative impacts of increasing N2O fluxes poses considerable challenges and will be ineffective without successfully incorporating microbially regulated N2O processes into ecosystem modeling and mitigation strategies. Here, we synthesize the latest knowledge of (i) the key microbial pathways regulating N2O production and consumption processes in terrestrial ecosystems and the critical environmental factors influencing their occurrence, and (ii) the relative contributions of major biological pathways to soil N2O emissions by analyzing available natural isotopic signatures of N2O and by using stable isotope enrichment and inhibition techniques. We argue that it is urgently necessary to incorporate microbial traits into biogeochemical ecosystem modeling in order to increase the estimation reliability of N2O emissions. We further propose a molecular methodology oriented framework from gene to ecosystem scales for more robust prediction and mitigation of future N2O emissions. © FEMS 2015. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Constraints and potentials of future irrigation water availability on agricultural production under climate change.

PubMed

Elliott, Joshua; Deryng, Delphine; Müller, Christoph; Frieler, Katja; Konzmann, Markus; Gerten, Dieter; Glotter, Michael; Flörke, Martina; Wada, Yoshihide; Best, Neil; Eisner, Stephanie; Fekete, Balázs M; Folberth, Christian; Foster, Ian; Gosling, Simon N; Haddeland, Ingjerd; Khabarov, Nikolay; Ludwig, Fulco; Masaki, Yoshimitsu; Olin, Stefan; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Ruane, Alex C; Satoh, Yusuke; Schmid, Erwin; Stacke, Tobias; Tang, Qiuhong; Wisser, Dominik

2014-03-04

We compare ensembles of water supply and demand projections from 10 global hydrological models and six global gridded crop models. These are produced as part of the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project, with coordination from the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project, and driven by outputs of general circulation models run under representative concentration pathway 8.5 as part of the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Models project that direct climate impacts to maize, soybean, wheat, and rice involve losses of 400-1,400 Pcal (8-24% of present-day total) when CO2 fertilization effects are accounted for or 1,400-2,600 Pcal (24-43%) otherwise. Freshwater limitations in some irrigated regions (western United States; China; and West, South, and Central Asia) could necessitate the reversion of 20-60 Mha of cropland from irrigated to rainfed management by end-of-century, and a further loss of 600-2,900 Pcal of food production. In other regions (northern/eastern United States, parts of South America, much of Europe, and South East Asia) surplus water supply could in principle support a net increase in irrigation, although substantial investments in irrigation infrastructure would be required.

Support Vector Machine Classification of Major Depressive Disorder Using Diffusion-Weighted Neuroimaging and Graph Theory

PubMed Central

Sacchet, Matthew D.; Prasad, Gautam; Foland-Ross, Lara C.; Thompson, Paul M.; Gotlib, Ian H.

2015-01-01

Recently, there has been considerable interest in understanding brain networks in major depressive disorder (MDD). Neural pathways can be tracked in the living brain using diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI); graph theory can then be used to study properties of the resulting fiber networks. To date, global abnormalities have not been reported in tractography-based graph metrics in MDD, so we used a machine learning approach based on “support vector machines” to differentiate depressed from healthy individuals based on multiple brain network properties. We also assessed how important specific graph metrics were for this differentiation. Finally, we conducted a local graph analysis to identify abnormal connectivity at specific nodes of the network. We were able to classify depression using whole-brain graph metrics. Small-worldness was the most useful graph metric for classification. The right pars orbitalis, right inferior parietal cortex, and left rostral anterior cingulate all showed abnormal network connectivity in MDD. This is the first use of structural global graph metrics to classify depressed individuals. These findings highlight the importance of future research to understand network properties in depression across imaging modalities, improve classification results, and relate network alterations to psychiatric symptoms, medication, and comorbidities. PMID:25762941

Support vector machine classification of major depressive disorder using diffusion-weighted neuroimaging and graph theory.

PubMed

Sacchet, Matthew D; Prasad, Gautam; Foland-Ross, Lara C; Thompson, Paul M; Gotlib, Ian H

2015-01-01

Recently, there has been considerable interest in understanding brain networks in major depressive disorder (MDD). Neural pathways can be tracked in the living brain using diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI); graph theory can then be used to study properties of the resulting fiber networks. To date, global abnormalities have not been reported in tractography-based graph metrics in MDD, so we used a machine learning approach based on "support vector machines" to differentiate depressed from healthy individuals based on multiple brain network properties. We also assessed how important specific graph metrics were for this differentiation. Finally, we conducted a local graph analysis to identify abnormal connectivity at specific nodes of the network. We were able to classify depression using whole-brain graph metrics. Small-worldness was the most useful graph metric for classification. The right pars orbitalis, right inferior parietal cortex, and left rostral anterior cingulate all showed abnormal network connectivity in MDD. This is the first use of structural global graph metrics to classify depressed individuals. These findings highlight the importance of future research to understand network properties in depression across imaging modalities, improve classification results, and relate network alterations to psychiatric symptoms, medication, and comorbidities.

HIV INFECTION AMONG FEMALE SEX WORKERS IN CONCENTRATED AND HIGH PREVALENCE EPIDEMICS: WHY A STRUCTURAL DETERMINANTS FRAMEWORK IS NEEDED

PubMed Central

Shannon, Kate; Goldenberg, Shira M.; Deering, Kathleen N.; Strathdee, Steffanie A.

2014-01-01

Purpose of review This article reviews the current state of the epidemiological literature on female sex work and HIV from the past 18 months. We offer a conceptual framework for structural HIV determinants and sex work that unpacks intersecting structural, interpersonal, and individual biological and behavioural factors. Recent findings Our review suggests that despite the heavy HIV burden among female sex workers (FSWs) globally, data on the structural determinants shaping HIV transmission dynamics have only begun to emerge. Emerging research suggests that factors operating at macrostructural (e.g., migration, stigma, criminalized laws), community organization (e.g., empowerment) and work environment levels (e.g., violence, policing, access to condoms HIV testing, HAART) act dynamically with interpersonal (e.g., dyad factors, sexual networks) and individual biological and behavioural factors to confer risks or protections for HIV transmission in female sex work. Summary Future research should be guided by a Structural HIV Determinants Framework to better elucidate the complex and iterative effects of structural determinants with interpersonal and individual biological and behavioural factors on HIV transmission pathways among FSWs, and meet critical gaps in optimal access to HIV prevention, treatment, and care for FSWs globally. PMID:24464089

Nitrous oxide (N2O) emission from aquaculture: a review.

PubMed

Hu, Zhen; Lee, Jae Woo; Chandran, Kartik; Kim, Sungpyo; Khanal, Samir Kumar

2012-06-19

Nitrous oxide (N(2)O) is an important greenhouse gas (GHG) which has a global warming potential 310 times that of carbon dioxide (CO(2)) over a hundred year lifespan. N(2)O is generated during microbial nitrification and denitrification, which are common in aquaculture systems. To date, few studies have been conducted to quantify N(2)O emission from aquaculture. Additionally, very little is known with respect to the microbial pathways through which N(2)O is formed in aquaculture systems. This review suggests that aquaculture can be an important anthropogenic source of N(2)O emission. The global N(2)O-N emission from aquaculture in 2009 is estimated to be 9.30 × 10(10) g, and will increase to 3.83 × 10(11)g which could account for 5.72% of anthropogenic N(2)O-N emission by 2030 if the aquaculture industry continues to increase at the present annual growth rate (about 7.10%). The possible mechanisms and various factors affecting N(2)O production are summarized, and two possible methods to minimize N(2)O emission, namely aquaponic and biofloc technology aquaculture, are also discussed. The paper concludes with future research directions.

Global insights into acetic acid resistance mechanisms and genetic stability of Acetobacter pasteurianus strains by comparative genomics

PubMed Central

Wang, Bin; Shao, Yanchun; Chen, Tao; Chen, Wanping; Chen, Fusheng

2015-01-01

Acetobacter pasteurianus (Ap) CICC 20001 and CGMCC 1.41 are two acetic acid bacteria strains that, because of their strong abilities to produce and tolerate high concentrations of acetic acid, have been widely used to brew vinegar in China. To globally understand the fermentation characteristics, acid-tolerant mechanisms and genetic stabilities, their genomes were sequenced. Genomic comparisons with 9 other sequenced Ap strains revealed that their chromosomes were evolutionarily conserved, whereas the plasmids were unique compared with other Ap strains. Analysis of the acid-tolerant metabolic pathway at the genomic level indicated that the metabolism of some amino acids and the known mechanisms of acetic acid tolerance, might collaboratively contribute to acetic acid resistance in Ap strains. The balance of instability factors and stability factors in the genomes of Ap CICC 20001 and CGMCC 1.41 strains might be the basis for their genetic stability, consistent with their stable industrial performances. These observations provide important insights into the acid resistance mechanism and the genetic stability of Ap strains and lay a foundation for future genetic manipulation and engineering of these two strains. PMID:26691589

RNA-Seq analysis of global transcriptomic changes suggests a roles for the MAPK pathway and carbon metabolism in cell wall maintenance in a Saccharomyces cerevisiae FKS1 mutant.

PubMed

Huang, Cong; Zhao, Fengguang; Lin, Ying; Zheng, Suiping; Liang, Shuli; Han, Shuangyan

2018-06-07

FKS1 encodes a β-1,3-glucan synthase, which is a key player in cell wall assembly in Saccharomyces cerevisiae. Here we analyzed the global transcriptomic changes in the FKS1 mutant to establish a correlation between the changes in the cell wall of the FKS1 mutant and the molecular mechanism of cell wall maintenance. These transcriptomic profiles showed that there are 1151 differentially expressed genes (DEGs) in the FKS1 mutant. Through KEGG pathway analysis of the DEGs, the MAPK pathway and seven pathways involved in carbon metabolism were significantly enriched. We found that the MAPK pathway is activated for FKS1 mutant survival and the synthesis of cell wall components are reinforced in the FKS1 mutant. Our results confirm that the FKS1 mutant has a β-1,3-glucan defect that affects the cell wall and partly elucidate the molecular mechanism responsible for cell wall synthesis. Our greater understanding of these mechanisms helps to explain how the FKS1 mutant survives, has useful implications for the study of similar pathways in other fungi, and increases the theoretical foundation for the regulation of the cell wall in S. cerevisiae. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of climatic changes in South-Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kjellstrom, Erik; Rana, Arun; Grigory, Nikulin; Renate, Wilcke; Hansson, Ulf; Kolax, Michael

2016-04-01

Literature has sufficient evidences of climate change impact all over the world and its impact on various sectors. In light of new advancements made in climate modeling, availability of several climate downscaling approaches, the more robust bias correction methods with varying complexities and strengths, in the present study we performed a systematic evaluation of climate change impact over South-Asia region. We have used different Regional Climate Models (RCMs) (from CORDEX domain), (Global Climate Models GCMs) and gridded observations for the study area to evaluate the models in historical/control period (1980-2010) and changes in future period (2010-2099). Firstly, GCMs and RCMs are evaluated against the Gridded observational datasets in the area using precipitation and temperature as indicative variables. Observational dataset are also evaluated against the reliable set of observational dataset, as pointed in literature. Bias, Correlation, and changes (among other statistical measures) are calculated for the entire region and both the variables. Eventually, the region was sub-divided into various smaller domains based on homogenous precipitation zones to evaluate the average changes over time period. Spatial and temporal changes for the region are then finally calculated to evaluate the future changes in the region. Future changes are calculated for 2 Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), the middle emission (RCP4.5) and high emission (RCP8.5) and for both climatic variables, precipitation and temperature. Lastly, Evaluation of Extremes is performed based on precipitation and temperature based indices for whole region in future dataset. Results have indicated that the whole study region is under extreme stress in future climate scenarios for both climatic variables i.e. precipitation and temperature. Precipitation variability is dependent on the location in the area leading to droughts and floods in various regions in future. Temperature is hinting towards a constant increase throughout the region regardless of location.

Epigenetic Reprogramming Strategies to Reverse Global Loss of 5-Hydroxymethylcytosine, a Prognostic Factor for Poor Survival in High-grade Serous Ovarian Cancer

PubMed Central

Tucker, Douglass W.; Getchell, Christopher R.; McCarthy, Eric T.; Ohman, Anders W.; Sasamoto, Naoko; Xu, Shuyun; Ko, Joo Yeon; Gupta, Mamta; Shafrir, Amy; Medina, Jamie E.; Lee, Jonathan J.; MacDonald, Lauren A.; Malik, Ammara; Hasselblatt, Kathleen T; Li, Wenjing; Zhang, Hong; Kaplan, Samuel J.; Murphy, George F.; Hirsch, Michelle S.; Liu, Joyce F.; Matulonis, Ursula A.; Terry, Kathryn L.; Lian, Christine G.; Dinulescu, Daniela M.

2018-01-01

Purpose A major challenge in platinum-based cancer therapy is the clinical management of chemoresistant tumors, which have a largely unknown pathogenesis at the level of epigenetic regulation. Experimental Design We evaluated the potential of using global loss of 5-hydroxymethylcytosine (5-hmC) levels as a novel diagnostic and prognostic epigenetic marker to better assess platinum-based chemotherapy response and clinical outcome in high-grade serous tumors (HGSOC), the most common and deadliest subtype of ovarian cancer. Furthermore, we identified a targetable pathway to reverse these epigenetic changes, both genetically and pharmacologically. Results This study shows that decreased 5-hmC levels are an epigenetic hallmark for malignancy and tumor progression in HGSOC. In addition, global 5-hmC loss is associated with a decreased response to platinum-based chemotherapy, shorter time to relapse, and poor overall survival in patients newly diagnosed with HGSOC. Interestingly, the rescue of 5-hmC loss restores sensitivity to platinum chemotherapy in vitro and in vivo, decreases the percentage of tumor cells with cancer stem cell markers, and increases overall survival in an aggressive animal model of platinum-resistant disease. Conclusions Consequently, a global analysis of patient 5-hmC levels should be included in future clinical trials, which use pretreatment with epigenetic adjuvants to elevate 5-hmC levels and improve the efficacy of current chemotherapies. Identifying prognostic epigenetic markers and altering chemotherapeutic regimens to incorporate DNMTi pretreatment in tumors with low 5-hmC levels could have important clinical implications for newly diagnosed HGSOC disease. PMID:29263182

Chapter 12: Sea Level Rise

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sweet, W. V.; Horton, R.; Kopp, R. E.; LeGrande, A. N.; Romanou, A.

2017-01-01

Global mean sea level (GMSL) has risen by about 7-8 inches (about 16-21 cm) since 1900, with about 3 of those inches (about 7 cm) occurring since 1993. Human-caused climate change has made a substantial contribution to GMSL rise since 1900, contributing to a rate of rise that is greater than during any preceding century in at least 2,800 years. Relative to the year 2000, GMSL is very likely to rise by 0.3-0.6 feet (9-18 cm) by 2030, 0.5-1.2 feet (15-38 cm) by 2050, and 1.0-4.3 feet (30-130 cm) by 2100. Future pathways have little effect on projected GMSL rise in the first half of the century, but significantly affect projections for the second half of the century. Emerging science regarding Antarctic ice sheet stability suggests that, for high emission scenarios, a GMSL rise exceeding 8 feet (2.4 m) by 2100 is physically possible, although the probability of such an extreme outcome cannot currently be assessed. Regardless of pathway, it is extremely likely that GMSL rise will continue beyond 2100. Relative sea level (RSL) rise in this century will vary along U.S. coastlines due, in part, to changes in Earth's gravitational field and rotation from melting of land ice, changes in ocean circulation, and vertical land motion (very high confidence). For almost all future GMSL rise scenarios, RSL rise is likely to be greater than the global average in the U.S. Northeast and the western Gulf of Mexico. In intermediate and low GMSL rise scenarios, RSL rise is likely to be less than the global average in much of the Pacific Northwest and Alaska. For high GMSL rise scenarios, RSL rise is likely to be higher than the global average along all U.S. coastlines outside Alaska. Almost all U.S. coastlines experience more than global mean sea level rise in response to Antarctic ice loss, and thus would be particularly affected under extreme GMSL rise scenarios involving substantial Antarctic mass loss. As sea levels have risen, the number of tidal floods each year that cause minor impacts (also called "nuisance floods") have increased 5- to 10-fold since the 1960s in several U.S. coastal cities. Rates of increase are accelerating in over 25 Atlantic and Gulf Coast cities. Tidal flooding will continue increasing in depth, frequency, and extent this century. Assuming storm characteristics do not change, sea level rise will increase the frequency and extent of extreme flooding associated with coastal storms, such as hurricanes and nor'easters. A projected increase in the intensity of hurricanes in the North Atlantic could increase the probability of extreme flooding along most of the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf Coast states beyond what would be projected based solely on RSL rise. However, there is low confidence in the projected increase in frequency of intense Atlantic hurricanes, and the associated flood risk amplification and flood effects could be offset or amplified by such factors as changes in overall storm frequency or tracks.

Assessment of soil organic carbon stocks under future climate and land cover changes in Europe.

PubMed

Yigini, Yusuf; Panagos, Panos

2016-07-01

Soil organic carbon plays an important role in the carbon cycling of terrestrial ecosystems, variations in soil organic carbon stocks are very important for the ecosystem. In this study, a geostatistical model was used for predicting current and future soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks in Europe. The first phase of the study predicts current soil organic carbon content by using stepwise multiple linear regression and ordinary kriging and the second phase of the study projects the soil organic carbon to the near future (2050) by using a set of environmental predictors. We demonstrate here an approach to predict present and future soil organic carbon stocks by using climate, land cover, terrain and soil data and their projections. The covariates were selected for their role in the carbon cycle and their availability for the future model. The regression-kriging as a base model is predicting current SOC stocks in Europe by using a set of covariates and dense SOC measurements coming from LUCAS Soil Database. The base model delivers coefficients for each of the covariates to the future model. The overall model produced soil organic carbon maps which reflect the present and the future predictions (2050) based on climate and land cover projections. The data of the present climate conditions (long-term average (1950-2000)) and the future projections for 2050 were obtained from WorldClim data portal. The future climate projections are the recent climate projections mentioned in the Fifth Assessment IPCC report. These projections were extracted from the global climate models (GCMs) for four representative concentration pathways (RCPs). The results suggest an overall increase in SOC stocks by 2050 in Europe (EU26) under all climate and land cover scenarios, but the extent of the increase varies between the climate model and emissions scenarios. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Environmental change and Rift Valley fever in eastern Africa: projecting beyond HEALTHY FUTURES.

PubMed

Taylor, David; Hagenlocher, Michael; Jones, Anne E; Kienberger, Stefan; Leedale, Joseph; Morse, Andrew P

2016-03-31

Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever (RVF), a relatively recently emerged zoonosis endemic to large parts of sub-Saharan Africa that has the potential to spread beyond the continent, have profound health and socio-economic impacts, particularly in communities where resilience is already low. Here output from a new, dynamic disease model [the Liverpool RVF (LRVF) model], driven by downscaled, bias-corrected climate change data from an ensemble of global circulation models from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project run according to two radiative forcing scenarios [representative concentration pathway (RCP)4.5 and RCP8.5], is combined with results of a spatial assessment of social vulnerability to the disease in eastern Africa. The combined approach allowed for analyses of spatial and temporal variations in the risk of RVF to the end of the current century. Results for both scenarios highlight the high-risk of future RVF outbreaks, including in parts of eastern Africa to date unaffected by the disease. The results also highlight the risk of spread from/to countries adjacent to the study area, and possibly farther afield, and the value of considering the geography of future projections of disease risk. Based on the results, there is a clear need to remain vigilant and to invest not only in surveillance and early warning systems, but also in addressing the socio-economic factors that underpin social vulnerability in order to mitigate, effectively, future impacts.

Present and Future of Dengue Fever in Nepal: Mapping Climatic Suitability by Ecological Niche Model

PubMed Central

Cao, Chunxiang; Xu, Min; Pandit, Shreejana

2018-01-01

Both the number of cases of dengue fever and the areas of outbreaks within Nepal have increased significantly in recent years. Further expansion and range shift is expected in the future due to global climate change and other associated factors. However, due to limited spatially-explicit research in Nepal, there is poor understanding about the present spatial distribution patterns of dengue risk areas and the potential range shift due to future climate change. In this context, it is crucial to assess and map dengue fever risk areas in Nepal. Here, we used reported dengue cases and a set of bioclimatic variables on the MaxEnt ecological niche modeling approach to model the climatic niche and map present and future (2050s and 2070s) climatically suitable areas under different representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5). Simulation-based estimates suggest that climatically suitable areas for dengue fever are presently distributed throughout the lowland Tarai from east to west and in river valleys at lower elevations. Under the different climate change scenarios, these areas will be slightly shifted towards higher elevation with varied magnitude and spatial patterns. Population exposed to climatically suitable areas of dengue fever in Nepal is anticipated to further increase in both 2050s and 2070s on all the assumed emission scenarios. These findings could be instrumental to plan and execute the strategic interventions for controlling dengue fever in Nepal. PMID:29360797

Characterization of extreme precipitation within atmospheric river events over California

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jeon, S.; Prabhat,; Byna, S.

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are large, spatially coherent weather systems with high concentrations of elevated water vapor. These systems often cause severe downpours and flooding over the western coastal United States – and with the availability of more atmospheric moisture in the future under global warming we expect ARs to play an important role as potential causes of extreme precipitation changes. Therefore, we aim to investigate changes in extreme precipitation properties correlated with AR events in a warmer climate, which are large-scale meteorological patterns affecting the weather and climate of California. We have recently developed the TECA (Toolkit for Extreme Climatemore » Analysis) software for automatically identifying and tracking features in climate data sets. Specifically, we can now identify ARs that make landfall on the western coast of North America. Based on this detection procedure, we can investigate the impact of ARs by exploring the spatial extent of AR precipitation using climate model (CMIP5) simulations and characterize spatial patterns of dependence for future projections between AR precipitation extremes under climate change within the statistical framework. Our results show that AR events in the future RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway)8.5 scenario (2076–2100) tend to produce heavier rainfall with higher frequency and longer days than events from the historical run (1981–2005). We also find that the dependence between extreme precipitation events has a shorter spatial range, within localized areas in California, under the high future emissions scenario than under the historical run.« less

Characterization of extreme precipitation within atmospheric river events over California

DOE PAGES

Jeon, S.; Prabhat,; Byna, S.; ...

2015-11-17

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are large, spatially coherent weather systems with high concentrations of elevated water vapor. These systems often cause severe downpours and flooding over the western coastal United States – and with the availability of more atmospheric moisture in the future under global warming we expect ARs to play an important role as potential causes of extreme precipitation changes. Therefore, we aim to investigate changes in extreme precipitation properties correlated with AR events in a warmer climate, which are large-scale meteorological patterns affecting the weather and climate of California. We have recently developed the TECA (Toolkit for Extreme Climatemore » Analysis) software for automatically identifying and tracking features in climate data sets. Specifically, we can now identify ARs that make landfall on the western coast of North America. Based on this detection procedure, we can investigate the impact of ARs by exploring the spatial extent of AR precipitation using climate model (CMIP5) simulations and characterize spatial patterns of dependence for future projections between AR precipitation extremes under climate change within the statistical framework. Our results show that AR events in the future RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway)8.5 scenario (2076–2100) tend to produce heavier rainfall with higher frequency and longer days than events from the historical run (1981–2005). We also find that the dependence between extreme precipitation events has a shorter spatial range, within localized areas in California, under the high future emissions scenario than under the historical run.« less

Wintertime urban heat island modified by global climate change over Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hara, M.

2015-12-01

Urban thermal environment change, especially, surface air temperature (SAT) rise in metropolitan areas, is one of the major recent issues in urban areas. The urban thermal environmental change affects not only human health such as heat stroke, but also increasing infectious disease due to spreading out virus vectors habitat and increase of industry and house energy consumption. The SAT rise is mostly caused by global climate change and urban heat island (hereafter UHI) by urbanization. The population in Tokyo metropolitan area is over 30 millions and the Tokyo metropolitan area is one of the biggest megacities in the world. The temperature rise due to urbanization seems comparable to the global climate change in the major megacities. It is important to project how the urbanization and the global climate change affect to the future change of urban thermal environment to plan the adaptation and mitigation policy. To predict future SAT change in urban scale, we should estimate future UHI modified by the global climate change. This study investigates change in UHI intensity (UHII) of major metropolitan areas in Japan by effects of the global climate change. We performed a series of climate simulations. Present climate simulations with and without urban process are conducted for ten seasons using a high-resolution numerical climate model, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Future climate projections with and without urban process are also conducted. The future projections are performed using the pseudo global warming method, assuming 2050s' initial and boundary conditions estimated by a GCM under the RCP scenario. Simulation results indicated that UHII would be enhanced more than 30% in Tokyo during the night due to the global climate change. The enhancement of urban heat island is mostly caused by change of lower atmospheric stability.

Bouncing Back From War Trauma: Resiliency in Global War on Terror’s Wounded Warriors

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-02-11

Casualties of the Global War on Terror and Their Future Impact on Health Care and Society: A Looming Public Health Crisis .” Military Medicine 179 (April...Casualties of the Global War on Terror and Their Future Impact on Health Care and Society: A Looming Public Health Crisis .” Military Medicine 179...AIR WAR COLLEGE AIR UNIVERSITY BOUNCING BACK FROM WAR TRAUMA: RESILIENCY IN GLOBAL WAR ON TERROR’S WOUNDED WARRIORS by Katherine H

An index-based framework for assessing patterns and trends in river fragmentation and flow regulation by global dams at multiple scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grill, Günther; Lehner, Bernhard; Lumsdon, Alexander E.; MacDonald, Graham K.; Zarfl, Christiane; Reidy Liermann, Catherine

2015-01-01

The global number of dam constructions has increased dramatically over the past six decades and is forecast to continue to rise, particularly in less industrialized regions. Identifying development pathways that can deliver the benefits of new infrastructure while also maintaining healthy and productive river systems is a great challenge that requires understanding the multifaceted impacts of dams at a range of scales. New approaches and advanced methodologies are needed to improve predictions of how future dam construction will affect biodiversity, ecosystem functioning, and fluvial geomorphology worldwide, helping to frame a global strategy to achieve sustainable dam development. Here, we respond to this need by applying a graph-based river routing model to simultaneously assess flow regulation and fragmentation by dams at multiple scales using data at high spatial resolution. We calculated the cumulative impact of a set of 6374 large existing dams and 3377 planned or proposed dams on river connectivity and river flow at basin and subbasin scales by fusing two novel indicators to create a holistic dam impact matrix for the period 1930-2030. Static network descriptors such as basin area or channel length are of limited use in hierarchically nested and dynamic river systems, so we developed the river fragmentation index and the river regulation index, which are based on river volume. These indicators are less sensitive to the effects of network configuration, offering increased comparability among studies with disparate hydrographies as well as across scales. Our results indicate that, on a global basis, 48% of river volume is moderately to severely impacted by either flow regulation, fragmentation, or both. Assuming completion of all dams planned and under construction in our future scenario, this number would nearly double to 93%, largely due to major dam construction in the Amazon Basin. We provide evidence for the importance of considering small to medium sized dams and for the need to include waterfalls to establish a baseline of natural fragmentation. Our versatile framework can serve as a component of river fragmentation and connectivity assessments; as a standardized, easily replicable monitoring framework at global and basin scales; and as part of regional dam planning and management strategies.

Global sea-level change during the next 10,000 years: the end of an icehouse?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van Breedam, Jonas; Huybrechts, Philippe; Goelzer, Heiko; Loutre, Marie-France; Fichefet, Thierry

2015-04-01

Because of the long life-time of atmospheric CO2, any realized future warming is likely to persist for many centuries to millennia. As a consequence, sea-level rise will continue on a multi-millennial timescale, especially from the slower components such as oceanic thermal expansion and above all, from melting of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. The two polar ice sheets have the potential to produce a global eustatic sea-level rise of about 65 m, at least an order of magnitude larger than thermal expansion under extreme forcing scenarios. Other components contributing to sea-level change are the melting of glaciers and ice caps and haline contraction of the ocean from fresh water delivery from land ice, but are less important. We have made projections of future sea-level rise over the next 10,000 years with the Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity LOVECLIM, which includes high resolution models of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. Four different model parameter sets are considered to explore the model uncertainty. The climate forcing is based on prolonged Radiative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios with an assumed exponential falloff for carbon dioxide concentrations according to global carbon cycle simulations. Six different forcing scenarios are constructed where the highest scenario includes a positive feedback due to the destabilization of methane hydrates and the subsequent emission of methane. By far the largest contribution in the global sea-level projections arises from the polar ice sheets. For the Greenland ice sheet, the ablation is larger than the accumulation for all forcing scenarios shortly after the start of the experiments. The ice sheet continuously melts and nearly disappears in all cases. The Antarctic ice sheet grows during the first decades under low to intermediate forcing scenarios due to increased accumulation. However, the spread between the different scenarios is very large. Under the highest prolonged RCP scenario (and in case methane hydrate starts to destabilize), the model uncertainty does not exclude melting of the entire Antarctic ice sheet after 10,000 years. This would mark the end of the present icehouse, which has existed for about 34 Myr, and would raise global sea-level by up to 70 m from all contributions combined.

Matching and selection of a specific subjective experience: conjugate matching and experience.

PubMed

Vimal, Ram Lakhan Pandey

2010-06-01

We incorporate the dual-mode concept in our dual-aspect PE-SE (proto-experience-subjective experience) framework. The two modes are: (1) the non-tilde mode that is the physical (material) and mental aspect of cognition (memory and attention) related feedback signals in a neural-network, which refers to the cognitive nearest past approaching towards present; and (2) the tilde mode that is the material and mental aspect of the feed-forward signals due to external environmental input and internal endogenous input, which pertains to the nearest future approaching towards present and is a entropy-reversed representation of non-tilde mode. Furthermore, one could argue that there are at least five sub-pathways in the stimulus-dependent feed-forward pathway and cognitive feedback pathway for information transfer in the brain dynamics: (i) classical axonal-dendritic neural sub-pathway including electromagnetic information field sub-pathway; (ii) quantum dendritic-dendritic microtubule (MT) (dendritic webs) sub-pathway; (iii) Ca(++)-related astroglial-neural sub-pathway; (iv) (a) the sub-pathway related to extrasynaptic signal transmission between fine distal dendrites of cortical neurons for the local subtle modulation due to voltages created by intradendritic dual-aspect charged surface effects within the Debye layer around endogenous structures such as microtubules (MT) and endoplasmic reticulum (ER) in dendrites, and (b) the sub-pathway related to extracellular volume transmission as fields of neural activity for the global modulation in axonal-dendritic neural sub-pathway; and (v) the sub-pathway related to information transmission via soliton propagation. We propose that: (i) the quantum conjugate matching between experiences in the mental aspect of the tilde mode and that of the non-tilde mode is related more to the mental aspect of the quantum microtubule-dendritic-web and less to that of the non-quantum sub-pathways; and (ii) the classical matching between experiences in the mental aspect of the tilde mode and that of the non-tilde mode is related to the mental aspect of the non-quantum sub-pathways (such as classical axonal-dendritic neural sub-pathway). In both cases, a specific SE is selected when the tilde mode interacts with the non-tilde mode to match for a specific SE, and when the necessary ingredients of SEs (such as the formation of neural networks, wakefulness, re-entry, attention, working memory, and so on) are satisfied. When the conjugate match is made between the two modes, the world-presence (Now) is disclosed. The material aspects in the tilde mode and that in the non-tilde mode are matched to link structure with function, whereas the mental aspects in the tilde mode and that in the non-tilde mode are matched to link experience with structure and function.

Pathways of Atlantic Waters in the Nordic seas: locally eddy-permitting ocean simulation in a global setup

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wekerle, C.; Wang, Q.; Danilov, S.; Jung, T.; Schourup-Kristensen, V.

2016-02-01

Atlantic Water (AW) passes through the Nordic Seas and enters the Arctic Ocean through the shallow Barents Sea and the deep Fram Strait. Since the 1990's, observations indicate a series of anomalously warm pulses of Atlantic Water that entered the Arctic Ocean. In fact, poleward oceanic heat transport may even increase in the future, which might have implications for the heat uptake in the Arctic Ocean as well as for the sea ice cover. The ability of models to faithfully simulate the pathway of the AW and accompanying dynamics is thus of high climate relevance. In this study, we explore the potential of a global multi-resolution sea ice-ocean model with a locally eddy-permitting resolution (around 4.5 km) in the Nordic seas region and Arctic Ocean in improving the representation of Atlantic Water inflow, and more broadly, the dynamics of the circulation in the Northern North Atlantic and Arctic. The simulation covers the time period 1969-2009. We find that locally increased resolution improves the localization and thickness of the Atlantic Water layer in the Nordic seas, compared with a 20 km resolution reference simulation. In particular, the inflow of Atlantic Waters through the Greenland Scotland Ridge and the narrow branches of the Norwegian Atlantic Current can be realistically represented. Lateral spreading due to simulated eddies essentially reduces the bias in the surface temperature. In addition, a qualitatively good agreement of the simulated eddy kinetic energy field with observations can be achieved. This study indicates that a substantial improvement in representing local ocean dynamics can be reached through the local refinement, which requires a rather moderate computational effort. The successful model assessment allows us to further investigate the variability and mechanisms behind Atlantic Water transport into the Arctic Ocean.

Proteomics analyses for the global proteins in the brain tissues of different human prion diseases.

PubMed

Shi, Qi; Chen, Li-Na; Zhang, Bao-Yun; Xiao, Kang; Zhou, Wei; Chen, Cao; Zhang, Xiao-Mei; Tian, Chan; Gao, Chen; Wang, Jing; Han, Jun; Dong, Xiao-Ping

2015-04-01

Proteomics changes of brain tissues have been described in different neurodegenerative diseases including Alzheimer's disease and Parkinson's disease. However, the brain proteomics of human prion disease remains less understood. In the study, the proteomics patterns of cortex and cerebellum of brain tissues of sporadic Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease, fatal familial insomnia, and G114V genetic CJD were analyzed with isobaric tags for relative and absolute quantitation combined with multidimensional liquid chromatography and MS analysis, with the brains from three normal individuals as controls. Global protein profiling, significant pathway, and functional categories were analyzed. In total, 2287 proteins were identified with quantitative information both in cortex and cerebellum regions. Cerebellum tissues appeared to contain more up- and down-regulated proteins (727 proteins) than cortex regions (312 proteins) of Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease, fatal familial insomnia, and G114V genetic CJD. Viral myocarditis, Parkinson's disease, Alzheimer's disease, lysosome, oxidative phosphorylation, protein export, and drug metabolism-cytochrome P450 were the most commonly affected pathways of the three kinds of diseases. Almost coincident biological functions were identified in the brain tissues of the three diseases. In all, data here demonstrate that the brain tissues of Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease, fatal familial insomnia, and G114V genetic CJD have obvious proteomics changes at their terminal stages, which show the similarities not only among human prion diseases but also with other neurodegeneration diseases. This is the first study to provide a reference proteome map for human prion diseases and will be helpful for future studies focused on potential biomarkers for the diagnosis and therapy of human prion diseases. © 2015 by The American Society for Biochemistry and Molecular Biology, Inc.