Science.gov

Sample records for future heat extremes

  1. Future crop production threatened by extreme heat

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Siebert, Stefan; Ewert, Frank

    2014-04-01

    Heat is considered to be a major stress limiting crop growth and yields. While important findings on the impact of heat on crop yield have been made based on experiments in controlled environments, little is known about the effects under field conditions at larger scales. The study of Deryng et al (2014 Global crop yield response to extreme heat stress under multiple climate change futures Environ. Res. Lett. 9 034011), analysing the impact of heat stress on maize, spring wheat and soya bean under climate change, represents an important contribution to this emerging research field. Uncertainties in the occurrence of heat stress under field conditions, plant responses to heat and appropriate adaptation measures still need further investigation.

  2. Elevated CO2 maintains grassland net carbon uptake under a future heat and drought extreme

    PubMed Central

    Roy, Jacques; Picon-Cochard, Catherine; Augusti, Angela; Benot, Marie-Lise; Thiery, Lionel; Darsonville, Olivier; Landais, Damien; Piel, Clément; Defossez, Marc; Devidal, Sébastien; Escape, Christophe; Ravel, Olivier; Fromin, Nathalie; Volaire, Florence; Milcu, Alexandru; Bahn, Michael; Soussana, Jean-François

    2016-01-01

    Extreme climatic events (ECEs) such as droughts and heat waves are predicted to increase in intensity and frequency and impact the terrestrial carbon balance. However, we lack direct experimental evidence of how the net carbon uptake of ecosystems is affected by ECEs under future elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations (eCO2). Taking advantage of an advanced controlled environment facility for ecosystem research (Ecotron), we simulated eCO2 and extreme cooccurring heat and drought events as projected for the 2050s and analyzed their effects on the ecosystem-level carbon and water fluxes in a C3 grassland. Our results indicate that eCO2 not only slows down the decline of ecosystem carbon uptake during the ECE but also enhances its recovery after the ECE, as mediated by increases of root growth and plant nitrogen uptake induced by the ECE. These findings indicate that, in the predicted near future climate, eCO2 could mitigate the effects of extreme droughts and heat waves on ecosystem net carbon uptake. PMID:27185934

  3. Future Extreme Heat Scenarios to Enable the Assessment of Climate Impacts on Public Health over the Coterminous U.S

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Quattrochi, D. A.; Crosson, W. L.; Al-Hamdan, M. Z.; Estes, M. G., Jr.

    2013-12-01

    In the United States, extreme heat is the most deadly weather-related hazard. In the face of a warming climate and urbanization, which contributes to local-scale urban heat islands, it is very likely that extreme heat events (EHEs) will become more common and more severe in the U.S. This research seeks to provide historical and future measures of climate-driven extreme heat events to enable assessments of the impacts of heat on public health over the coterminous U.S. We use atmospheric temperature and humidity information from meteorological reanalysis and from Global Climate Models (GCMs) to provide data on past and future heat events. The focus of research is on providing assessments of the magnitude, frequency and geographic distribution of extreme heat in the U.S. to facilitate public health studies. In our approach, long-term climate change is captured with GCM outputs, and the temporal and spatial characteristics of short-term extremes are represented by the reanalysis data. Two future time horizons for 2040 and 2090 are compared to the recent past period of 1981-2000. We characterize regional-scale temperature and humidity conditions using GCM outputs for two climate change scenarios (A2 and A1B) defined in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). For each future period, 20 years of multi-model GCM outputs are analyzed to develop a ';heat stress climatology' based on statistics of extreme heat indicators. Differences between the two future and the past period are used to define temperature and humidity changes on a monthly time scale and regional spatial scale. These changes are combined with the historical meteorological data, which is hourly and at a spatial scale (12 km) much finer than that of GCMs, to create future climate realizations. From these realizations, we compute the daily heat stress measures and related spatially-specific climatological fields, such as the mean annual number of days above certain thresholds of maximum and minimum air

  4. Future Extreme Heat Scenarios to Enable the Assessment of Climate Impacts on Public Health over the Coterminous U.S.

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Quattrochi, Dale A.; Crosson, William L.; Al-Hamdan, Mohammad Z.; Estes, Maurice G., Jr.

    2013-01-01

    In the United States, extreme heat is the most deadly weather-related hazard. In the face of a warming climate and urbanization, which contributes to local-scale urban heat islands, it is very likely that extreme heat events (EHEs) will become more common and more severe in the U.S. This research seeks to provide historical and future measures of climate-driven extreme heat events to enable assessments of the impacts of heat on public health over the coterminous U.S. We use atmospheric temperature and humidity information from meteorological reanalysis and from Global Climate Models (GCMs) to provide data on past and future heat events. The focus of research is on providing assessments of the magnitude, frequency and geographic distribution of extreme heat in the U.S. to facilitate public health studies. In our approach, long-term climate change is captured with GCM outputs, and the temporal and spatial characteristics of short-term extremes are represented by the reanalysis data. Two future time horizons for 2040 and 2090 are compared to the recent past period of 1981- 2000. We characterize regional-scale temperature and humidity conditions using GCM outputs for two climate change scenarios (A2 and A1B) defined in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). For each future period, 20 years of multi-model GCM outputs are analyzed to develop a 'heat stress climatology' based on statistics of extreme heat indicators. Differences between the two future and the past period are used to define temperature and humidity changes on a monthly time scale and regional spatial scale. These changes are combined with the historical meteorological data, which is hourly and at a spatial scale (12 km), to create future climate realizations. From these realizations, we compute the daily heat stress measures and related spatially-specific climatological fields, such as the mean annual number of days above certain thresholds of maximum and minimum air temperatures, heat indices

  5. The Weather of the Future: Heat Waves, Extreme Storms, and Other Scenes from a Climate-Changed Planet

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cullen, H. M.

    2010-12-01

    In The Weather of the Future, Dr. Heidi Cullen puts a vivid face on climate change, offering a new way of seeing this phenomenon not just as an event set to happen in the distant future but as something happening right now in our own backyards. Arguing that we must connect the weather of today with the climate change of tomorrow, Cullen combines the latest research from scientists on the ground with state-of-the-art climate model projections to create climate-change scenarios for seven of the most at-risk locations around the world. From the Central Valley of California, where coming droughts will jeopardize the entire state’s water supply, to Greenland, where warmer temperatures will give access to mineral wealth buried beneath ice sheets for millennia, Cullen illustrates how, if left unabated, climate change will transform every corner of the world by midcentury. What emerges is a mosaic of changing weather patterns that collectively spell out the range of risks posed by global warming—whether it’s New York City, whose infrastructure is extremely vulnerable even to a relatively weak Category 3 hurricane or to Bangladesh, a country so low-lying that millions of people could become climate refugees thanks to rising sea levels. The Weather of the Future makes climate change local, showing how no two regions of the country or the world will be affected in quite the same way and demonstrating that melting ice is just the beginning.

  6. Extreme Convective Weather in Future Decades

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gadian, Alan; Burton, Ralph; Groves, James; Blyth, Alan; Warner, James; Holland, Greg; Bruyere, Cindy; Done, James; Thielen, Jutta

    2016-04-01

    WISER (Weather Climate Change Impact Study at Extreme Resolution) is a project designed to analyse changes in extreme weather events in a future climate, using a weather model (WRF) which is able to resolve small scale processes. Use of a weather model is specifically designed to look at convection which is of a scale which cannot be resolved by climate models. The regional meso-scale precipitation events, which are critical in understanding climate change impacts will be analysed. A channel domain outer model, with a resolution of ~ 20km in the outer domain drives an inner domain of ~ 3 km resolution. Results from 1989-1994 and 2020-2024 and 2030-2034 will be presented to show the effects of extreme convective events over Western Europe. This presentation will provide details of the project. It will present data from the 1989-1994 ERA-interim and CCSM driven simulations, with analysis of the future years as defined above. The representation of pdfs of extreme precipitation, Outgoing Longwave Radiation and wind speeds, with preliminary comparison with observations will be discussed. It is also planned to use the output to drive the EFAS (European Flood model) to examine the predicted changes in quantity and frequency of severe and hazardous convective rainfall events and leading to the frequency of flash flooding due to heavy convective precipitation.

  7. Biological Extreme Events - Past, Present, and Future

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gutschick, V. P.

    2010-12-01

    Biological extreme events span wide ranges temporally and spatially and in type - population dieoffs, extinctions, ecological reorganizations, changes in biogeochemical fluxes, and more. Driving variables consist in meteorology, tectonics, orbital changes, anthropogenic changes (land-use change, species introductions, reactive N injection into the biosphere), and evolution (esp. of diseases). However, the mapping of extremes in the drivers onto biological extremes as organismal responses is complex, as laid out originally in the theoretical framework of Gutschick and BassiriRad (New Phytologist [2003] 100:21-42). Responses are nonlinear and dependent on (mostly unknown and) complex temporal sequences - often of multiple environmental variables. The responses are species- and genotype specific. I review extreme events over from past to present over wide temporal scales, while noting that they are not wholly informative of responses to the current and near-future drivers for at least two reasons: 1) the current combination of numerous environmental extremes - changes in CO2, temperature, precipitation, reactive N, land fragmentation, O3, etc. -is unprecedented in scope, and 2) adaptive genetic variation for organismal responses is constrained by poorly-characterized genetic structures (in organisms and populations) and by loss of genetic variation by genetic drift over long periods. We may expect radical reorganizations of ecosystem and biogeochemical functions. These changes include many ecosystem services in flood control, crop pollination and insect/disease control, C-water-mineral cycling, and more, as well as direct effects on human health. Predictions of such changes will necessarily be very weak in the critical next few decades, given the great deal of observation, experimentation, and theory construction that will be necessary, on both organisms and drivers. To make the research efforts most effective will require extensive, insightful planning, beginning

  8. Extreme heat changes post-heat wave community reassembly

    PubMed Central

    Seifert, Linda I; Weithoff, Guntram; Vos, Matthijs

    2015-01-01

    Climate forecasts project further increases in extremely high-temperature events. These present threats to biodiversity, as they promote population declines and local species extinctions. This implies that ecological communities will need to rely more strongly on recovery processes, such as recolonization from a meta-community context. It is poorly understood how differences in extreme event intensity change the outcome of subsequent community reassembly and if such extremes modify the biotic environment in ways that would prevent the successful re-establishment of lost species. We studied replicated aquatic communities consisting of algae and herbivorous rotifers in a design that involved a control and two different heat wave intensity treatments (29°C and 39°C). Animal species that suffered heat-induced extinction were subsequently re-introduced at the same time and density, in each of the two treatments. The 39°C treatment led to community closure in all replicates, meaning that a previously successful herbivore species could not re-establish itself in the postheat wave community. In contrast, such closure never occurred after a 29°C event. Heat wave intensity determined the number of herbivore extinctions and strongly affected algal relative abundances. Re-introduced herbivore species were thus confronted with significantly different food environments. This ecological legacy generated by heat wave intensity led to differences in the failure or success of herbivore species re-introductions. Reassembly was significantly more variable, and hence less predictable, after an extreme heat wave, and was more canalized after a moderate one. Our results pertain to relatively simple communities, but they suggest that ecological legacies introduced by extremely high-temperature events may change subsequent ecological recovery and even prevent the successful re-establishment of lost species. Knowing the processes promoting and preventing ecological recovery is crucial

  9. Extreme heat changes post-heat wave community reassembly.

    PubMed

    Seifert, Linda I; Weithoff, Guntram; Vos, Matthijs

    2015-06-01

    Climate forecasts project further increases in extremely high-temperature events. These present threats to biodiversity, as they promote population declines and local species extinctions. This implies that ecological communities will need to rely more strongly on recovery processes, such as recolonization from a meta-community context. It is poorly understood how differences in extreme event intensity change the outcome of subsequent community reassembly and if such extremes modify the biotic environment in ways that would prevent the successful re-establishment of lost species. We studied replicated aquatic communities consisting of algae and herbivorous rotifers in a design that involved a control and two different heat wave intensity treatments (29°C and 39°C). Animal species that suffered heat-induced extinction were subsequently re-introduced at the same time and density, in each of the two treatments. The 39°C treatment led to community closure in all replicates, meaning that a previously successful herbivore species could not re-establish itself in the postheat wave community. In contrast, such closure never occurred after a 29°C event. Heat wave intensity determined the number of herbivore extinctions and strongly affected algal relative abundances. Re-introduced herbivore species were thus confronted with significantly different food environments. This ecological legacy generated by heat wave intensity led to differences in the failure or success of herbivore species re-introductions. Reassembly was significantly more variable, and hence less predictable, after an extreme heat wave, and was more canalized after a moderate one. Our results pertain to relatively simple communities, but they suggest that ecological legacies introduced by extremely high-temperature events may change subsequent ecological recovery and even prevent the successful re-establishment of lost species. Knowing the processes promoting and preventing ecological recovery is crucial

  10. Extreme heat changes post-heat wave community reassembly.

    PubMed

    Seifert, Linda I; Weithoff, Guntram; Vos, Matthijs

    2015-06-01

    Climate forecasts project further increases in extremely high-temperature events. These present threats to biodiversity, as they promote population declines and local species extinctions. This implies that ecological communities will need to rely more strongly on recovery processes, such as recolonization from a meta-community context. It is poorly understood how differences in extreme event intensity change the outcome of subsequent community reassembly and if such extremes modify the biotic environment in ways that would prevent the successful re-establishment of lost species. We studied replicated aquatic communities consisting of algae and herbivorous rotifers in a design that involved a control and two different heat wave intensity treatments (29°C and 39°C). Animal species that suffered heat-induced extinction were subsequently re-introduced at the same time and density, in each of the two treatments. The 39°C treatment led to community closure in all replicates, meaning that a previously successful herbivore species could not re-establish itself in the postheat wave community. In contrast, such closure never occurred after a 29°C event. Heat wave intensity determined the number of herbivore extinctions and strongly affected algal relative abundances. Re-introduced herbivore species were thus confronted with significantly different food environments. This ecological legacy generated by heat wave intensity led to differences in the failure or success of herbivore species re-introductions. Reassembly was significantly more variable, and hence less predictable, after an extreme heat wave, and was more canalized after a moderate one. Our results pertain to relatively simple communities, but they suggest that ecological legacies introduced by extremely high-temperature events may change subsequent ecological recovery and even prevent the successful re-establishment of lost species. Knowing the processes promoting and preventing ecological recovery is crucial

  11. Climate, extreme heat, and electricity demand in California

    SciTech Connect

    Miller, N.L.; Hayhoe, K.; Jin, J.; Auffhammer, M.

    2008-04-01

    Climate projections from three atmosphere-ocean climate models with a range of low to mid-high temperature sensitivity forced by the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change SRES higher, middle, and lower emission scenarios indicate that, over the 21st century, extreme heat events for major cities in heavily air-conditioned California will increase rapidly. These increases in temperature extremes are projected to exceed the rate of increase in mean temperature, along with increased variance. Extreme heat is defined here as the 90 percent exceedance probability (T90) of the local warmest summer days under the current climate. The number of extreme heat days in Los Angeles, where T90 is currently 95 F (32 C), may increase from 12 days to as many as 96 days per year by 2100, implying current-day heat wave conditions may last for the entire summer, with earlier onset. Overall, projected increases in extreme heat under the higher A1fi emission scenario by 2070-2099 tend to be 20-30 percent higher than those projected under the lower B1 emission scenario, ranging from approximately double the historical number of days for inland California cities (e.g. Sacramento and Fresno), up to four times for previously temperate coastal cities (e.g. Los Angeles, San Diego). These findings, combined with observed relationships between high temperature and electricity demand for air-conditioned regions, suggest potential shortfalls in transmission and supply during T90 peak electricity demand periods. When the projected extreme heat and peak demand for electricity are mapped onto current availability, maintaining technology and population constant only for demand side calculations, we find the potential for electricity deficits as high as 17 percent. Similar increases in extreme heat days are suggested for other locations across the U.S. southwest, as well as for developing nations with rapidly increasing electricity demands. Electricity response to recent extreme heat events, such

  12. Spatial vulnerability of Australian urban populations to extreme heat events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Loughnan, Margaret; Tapper, Nigel; Phan, Thu; Lynch, Kellie; McInnes, Judith

    2013-04-01

    Extreme heat events pose a risk to the health of all individuals, especially the elderly and the chronically ill, and are associated with an increased demand for healthcare services. In order to address this problem, policy makers' need information about temperatures above which mortality and morbidity of the exposed population is likely to increase, where the vulnerable groups in the community are located, and how the risks from extreme heat events are likely to change in the future. This study identified threshold temperatures for all Australian capital cities, developed a spatial index of population vulnerability, and used climate model output to predict changes in the number of days exceeding temperature thresholds in the future, as well as changes in risk related to changes in urban density and an ageing population. The study has shown that daily maximum and minimum temperatures from the Bureau of Meteorology forecasts can be used to calculate temperature thresholds for heat alert days. The key risk factors related to adverse health outcomes were found to be areas with intense urban heat islands, areas with higher proportions of older people, and areas with ethnic communities. Maps of spatial vulnerability have been developed to provide information to assist emergency managers, healthcare professionals, and ancillary services develop heatwave preparedness plans at a local scale that target vulnerable groups and address heat-related health risks. The numbers of days exceeding current heat thresholds are predicted to increase over the next 20 to 40 years in all Australian capital cities.

  13. Possible future changes in extreme events over Northern Eurasia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Monier, Erwan; Sokolov, Andrei; Scott, Jeffery

    2013-04-01

    In this study, we investigate possible future climate change over Northern Eurasia and its impact on extreme events. Northern Eurasia is a major player in the global carbon budget because of boreal forests and peatlands. Circumpolar boreal forests alone contain more than five times the amount of carbon of temperate forests and almost double the amount of carbon of the world's tropical forests. Furthermore, severe permafrost degradation associated with climate change could result in peatlands releasing large amounts of carbon dioxide and methane. Meanwhile, changes in the frequency and magnitude of extreme events, such as extreme precipitation, heat waves or frost days are likely to have substantial impacts on Northern Eurasia ecosystems. For this reason, it is very important to quantify the possible climate change over Northern Eurasia under different emissions scenarios, while accounting for the uncertainty in the climate response and changes in extreme events. For several decades, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change has been investigating uncertainty in climate change using the MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) framework, an integrated assessment model that couples an earth system model of intermediate complexity (with a 2D zonal-mean atmosphere) to a human activity model. In this study, regional change is investigated using the MIT IGSM-CAM framework that links the IGSM to the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Atmosphere Model (CAM). New modules were developed and implemented in CAM to allow climate parameters to be changed to match those of the IGSM. The simulations presented in this paper were carried out for two emission scenarios, a "business as usual" scenario and a 660 ppm of CO2-equivalent stabilization, which are similar to, respectively, the Representative Concentration Pathways RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios. Values of climate sensitivity and net aerosol

  14. Seasonal mean temperature changes control future heat waves

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Argüeso, Daniel; Di Luca, Alejandro; Perkins-Kirkpatrick, Sarah E.; Evans, Jason P.

    2016-07-01

    Increased temperature will result in longer, more frequent, and more intense heat waves. Changes in temperature variability have been deemed necessary to account for future heat wave characteristics. However, this has been quantified only in Europe and North America, while the rest of the globe remains unexplored. Using late century global climate projections, we show that annual mean temperature increases is the key factor defining heat wave changes in most regions. We find that commonly studied areas are an exception rather than the standard and the mean climate change signal generally outweighs any influence from variability changes. More importantly, differences in warming across seasons are responsible for most of the heat wave changes and their consideration relegates the contribution of variability to a marginal role. This reveals that accurately capturing mean seasonal changes is crucial to estimate future heat waves and reframes our interpretation of future temperature extremes.

  15. Medical Evaluation for Exposure Extremes: Heat.

    PubMed

    Pryor, Riana R; Bennett, Brad L; O'Connor, Francis G; Young, Justin M J; Asplund, Chad A

    2015-12-01

    Exertional heat illness can be a serious consequence of sports or exercise in hot environments. Participants can possess intrinsic or face extrinsic risk factors that may increase their risk for heat-related illness. Knowledge of the physiology and pathology of heat illness, identification of risk factors, and strategies to combat heat accumulation will aid both the practitioner and the participant in preparing for activities that occur in hot environments. Through preparation and mitigation of risk, safe and enjoyable wilderness adventure can be pursued.

  16. Medical Evaluation for Exposure Extremes: Heat.

    PubMed

    Pryor, Riana R; Bennett, Brad L; OʼConnor, Francis G; Young, Justin M J; Asplund, Chad A

    2015-09-01

    Exertional heat illness can be a serious consequence of sports or exercise in hot environments. Participants can possess intrinsic or face extrinsic risk factors that may increase their risk for heat-related illness. Knowledge of the physiology and pathology of heat illness, identification of risk factors, and strategies to combat heat accumulation will aid both the practitioner and the participant in preparing for activities that occur in hot environments. Through preparation and mitigation of risk, safe and enjoyable wilderness adventure can be pursued.

  17. Future Urbanization and the Management of Urban Heat Risk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marcotullio, P. J.

    2015-12-01

    We present urbanization scenarios that identify a range of urban population estimates to 2100 on a global spatial grid. We associate these data with model outputs that estimate future temperature using IPCC RCP8.5 scenarios for 2030, 2050, 2070 and 2080 using minimum, maximum and mean urban population per grid cell exposure to average summer temperatures of > 35° C to identify national, regional and global totals. After an examination of urban extreme heat morbidity and mortality trends we review the range of policies (across sectors such as energy, buildings, health and hospitals, water supply, transportation, etc.,) with particular emphasis on knowledge from different sources, technologies and experiences - including indigenous knowledge systems, currently deployed in cities around the world that respond to this threat. Finally, we identify potential synergies, trade-offs and maladaptations in urban adaptation responses to extreme heat given estimated future population exposure.

  18. Future precipitation extremes during summer monsoon in southern Pakistan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zahid, Maida; Lucarini, Valerio

    2016-04-01

    Extreme precipitation events are considered as a hydro-meteorological hazard resulting in colossal damage worldwide. In Pakistan, the extreme precipitation events have increased in the recent decades particularly in the southern part (Sindh province). This region did not receive substantial amount of precipitation earlier, but now experiencing urban flooding almost every year causing loss of life, property, crops and infrastructure. The region lacks the information regarding the recurrence of extreme precipitation events. Therefore, there is a strong need for a reliable information of extremes over the upcoming decades for better regional planning. Although statistical methods based on extreme value theory (EVT) are the most relevant ones to study the extremes, but they are never been applied in Pakistan. To address this shortcoming, we use the peak over threshold (POT) approach to compute the return levels (RLs) of precipitation extremes, and also identify the regions most prone to them. In this study, we analyzed the summer monsoon daily precipitation measured at nine weather stations of Pakistan Meteorological Department over the period 1980-2013. The summer monsoon (JJAS) is preferred for the analysis, because most of the extreme precipitation occurs during this period. We apply POT approach to model the daily precipitation above a selected threshold for each station. Then, we estimate return levels (RLs) of precipitation extremes during summer monsoon in southern Pakistan (Sindh) for the next 5, 25, 50 and 100-years. Lastly, we compare the 5-years with 100-years RLs to indicate the stations most vulnerable to precipitation extremes in future. This work is funded by the Climate KIC, European Institute of Innovation and Technology, Germany.

  19. Hypersonic Composites Resist Extreme Heat and Stress

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2007-01-01

    Through research contracts with NASA, Materials and Electrochemical Research Corporation (MER), of Tucson, Arizona, contributed a number of technologies to record-breaking hypersonic flights. Through this research, MER developed a coating that successfully passed testing to simulate Mach 10 conditions, as well as provide several additional carbon-carbon (C-C) composite components for the flights. MER created all of the leading edges for the X-43A test vehicles at Dryden-considered the most critical parts of this experimental craft. In addition to being very heat resistant, the coating had to be very lightweight and thin, as the aircraft was designed to very precise specifications and could not afford to have a bulky coating. MER patented its carbon-carbon (C-C) composite process and then formed a spinoff company, Frontier Materials Corporation (FMC), also based in Tucson. FMC is using the patent in conjunction with low-cost PAN (polyacrylonitrile)-based fibers to introduce these materials to the commercial markets. The C-C composites are very lightweight and exceptionally strong and stiff, even at very high temperatures. The composites have been used in industrial heating applications, the automotive and aerospace industries, as well as in glass manufacturing and on semiconductors. Applications also include transfer components for glass manufacturing and structural members for carrier support in semiconductor processing.

  20. Historical changes and future projection of extreme precipitation in China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yuan, Zhe; Yang, Zhiyong; Yan, Denghua; Yin, Jun

    2015-09-01

    Investigating changes in extreme precipitation, i.e., maximum precipitation for multiday events, is critical for flood management and risk assessment. Based on the observed daily precipitation from China's Ground Precipitation 0.5° × 0.5° Gridded Dataset (V2.0) and simulated daily precipitation from five general circulation models (GCMs) provided by The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP), extreme precipitation indices corresponding to annual maximum 1-, 3-, 15-, and 30-day precipitation across China from 1961 to 2011 and 2011 to 2050 were calculated. Relative changes in the 10-, 20-, and 50-year return period estimates, using 1-, 3-, 15-, and 30-day precipitation, are discussed to represent changes in extreme precipitation in the future. Results show that (1) the spatial distribution of annual maximum precipitation for 1, 3, 15, and 30 days is similar with that of annual precipitation. An increasing trend from the northwest to the southeast was found, with the highest values shown to be in the plain region adjacent to the mountains and coastal area; (2) Comparing the observed and simulated data, it could be seen that climate models have good simulation of 10-, 20-, and 50-year return period events. Absolute relative error is less than 30 % in 80 % in the study area; (3) Extreme precipitation in the future has an increasing trend in China. In the south, extreme precipitation associated with short duration as well as the 50-year return period will likely increase to a comparatively large degree in the future. In the north, extreme precipitation associated with long duration and the 10-year return period will likely see a large increase in the future.

  1. Future Heat Waves in Paris Metropolitan Area

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beaulant, A.; Lemonsu, A.; Somot, S.; Masson, V.

    2010-12-01

    Cities are particularly vulnerable to heat waves, firstly because they concentrate the majority of the population and, secondly because the heat island that characterizes the urban climate exacerbates heat wave effects. This work is part of the interdisciplinary VURCA project (Vulnerability of cities to heat waves), which deals with the evolution of heat wave events in the context of global warming, urban vulnerability and adaptation strategies. The aim of this study is to analyse urban heat wave events in present climate (1950-2009) and their evolution in an enhanced greenhouse gazes future climate (2010-2100). We used daily observations of temperature from several stations covering Paris metropolitan area and climate projections following three different IPCC-SRES scenarios (B1, A1B, A2) and issued from several ENSEMBLES regional climate models. The heat wave definition is based on the indexes of the operational French warning system. A heat wave is detected within observed or simulated time-series by a heat wave peak, when the temperatures exceed the value of the 99.9th percentile. Its duration is determined by all adjacent days to this peak, for which the temperatures are not durably smaller than the 99.9th percentile value minus 2 °C. The 99.9th percentile threshold is inferred from quantile-quantile plots produced for each climate model in comparison with observations for the reference period 1950-2000. Heat waves have been extracted within observations and 12 climatic simulations. The number of heat wave events and cumulated HW days per year have been calculated, the maximum being seven heat waves cumulating more than 60 HW days in one year in the case of the A2 scenario and until 50 days in the case of the more moderate A1B scenario. From 2050, the occurrence of three or four HW events per year is becoming the norm all scenarios taken together. The evolution of heat wave features has been analysed, highlighting the large variability of the climatic

  2. Precipitation Extremes: Considerations for Anthropogenically-forced Future Changes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kunkel, K.; Young, J.

    2015-12-01

    The Third National Climate Assessment states that "increases in the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events are projected for all U.S. regions". While that general statement was made with high confidence, the practical implications for decision-makers are much less clear. In particular, engineering design needs quantitative estimates of probable maximum precipitation (PMP) and intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) values for the future in order to optimize runoff control structures for future climate conditions. This can be realized by simply analyzing the precipitation data from global climate model simulations of the future. However, confidence in the resulting values suffers from the known issues with GCM simulation of precipitation. In addition, skepticism about the accuracy of climate models negatively affects potential adoption of revised values in the engineering design community. We contend that scientists need a multi-pronged approach to develop PMP/IDF values that can be defended, explained, and promoted in order to maximize societal benefits and avoid catastrophic events. This talk will discuss considerations that could/should form the basis for design values. While global-warming induced increases in atmospheric water vapor content are nearly certain and form the foundation for expected increases in extreme precipitation, they most likely will be modulated by changes in global atmospheric dynamics and the consequent effects on local weather system climatology. This can be seen currently in the unexplained regional variations in recent trends in extreme precipitation frequency and intensity. We need to be able to understand recent trends, when greenhouse gas forcing of the climate systems has been rapidly increasing, in order to produce confident projections of future extreme precipitation.

  3. Effects of climate extremes on the terrestrial carbon cycle: concepts, processes and potential future impacts.

    PubMed

    Frank, Dorothea; Reichstein, Markus; Bahn, Michael; Thonicke, Kirsten; Frank, David; Mahecha, Miguel D; Smith, Pete; van der Velde, Marijn; Vicca, Sara; Babst, Flurin; Beer, Christian; Buchmann, Nina; Canadell, Josep G; Ciais, Philippe; Cramer, Wolfgang; Ibrom, Andreas; Miglietta, Franco; Poulter, Ben; Rammig, Anja; Seneviratne, Sonia I; Walz, Ariane; Wattenbach, Martin; Zavala, Miguel A; Zscheischler, Jakob

    2015-08-01

    Extreme droughts, heat waves, frosts, precipitation, wind storms and other climate extremes may impact the structure, composition and functioning of terrestrial ecosystems, and thus carbon cycling and its feedbacks to the climate system. Yet, the interconnected avenues through which climate extremes drive ecological and physiological processes and alter the carbon balance are poorly understood. Here, we review the literature on carbon cycle relevant responses of ecosystems to extreme climatic events. Given that impacts of climate extremes are considered disturbances, we assume the respective general disturbance-induced mechanisms and processes to also operate in an extreme context. The paucity of well-defined studies currently renders a quantitative meta-analysis impossible, but permits us to develop a deductive framework for identifying the main mechanisms (and coupling thereof) through which climate extremes may act on the carbon cycle. We find that ecosystem responses can exceed the duration of the climate impacts via lagged effects on the carbon cycle. The expected regional impacts of future climate extremes will depend on changes in the probability and severity of their occurrence, on the compound effects and timing of different climate extremes, and on the vulnerability of each land-cover type modulated by management. Although processes and sensitivities differ among biomes, based on expert opinion, we expect forests to exhibit the largest net effect of extremes due to their large carbon pools and fluxes, potentially large indirect and lagged impacts, and long recovery time to regain previous stocks. At the global scale, we presume that droughts have the strongest and most widespread effects on terrestrial carbon cycling. Comparing impacts of climate extremes identified via remote sensing vs. ground-based observational case studies reveals that many regions in the (sub-)tropics are understudied. Hence, regional investigations are needed to allow a global

  4. Effects of climate extremes on the terrestrial carbon cycle: concepts, processes and potential future impacts

    PubMed Central

    Frank, Dorothea; Reichstein, Markus; Bahn, Michael; Thonicke, Kirsten; Frank, David; Mahecha, Miguel D; Smith, Pete; van der Velde, Marijn; Vicca, Sara; Babst, Flurin; Beer, Christian; Buchmann, Nina; Canadell, Josep G; Ciais, Philippe; Cramer, Wolfgang; Ibrom, Andreas; Miglietta, Franco; Poulter, Ben; Rammig, Anja; Seneviratne, Sonia I; Walz, Ariane; Wattenbach, Martin; Zavala, Miguel A; Zscheischler, Jakob

    2015-01-01

    Extreme droughts, heat waves, frosts, precipitation, wind storms and other climate extremes may impact the structure, composition and functioning of terrestrial ecosystems, and thus carbon cycling and its feedbacks to the climate system. Yet, the interconnected avenues through which climate extremes drive ecological and physiological processes and alter the carbon balance are poorly understood. Here, we review the literature on carbon cycle relevant responses of ecosystems to extreme climatic events. Given that impacts of climate extremes are considered disturbances, we assume the respective general disturbance-induced mechanisms and processes to also operate in an extreme context. The paucity of well-defined studies currently renders a quantitative meta-analysis impossible, but permits us to develop a deductive framework for identifying the main mechanisms (and coupling thereof) through which climate extremes may act on the carbon cycle. We find that ecosystem responses can exceed the duration of the climate impacts via lagged effects on the carbon cycle. The expected regional impacts of future climate extremes will depend on changes in the probability and severity of their occurrence, on the compound effects and timing of different climate extremes, and on the vulnerability of each land-cover type modulated by management. Although processes and sensitivities differ among biomes, based on expert opinion, we expect forests to exhibit the largest net effect of extremes due to their large carbon pools and fluxes, potentially large indirect and lagged impacts, and long recovery time to regain previous stocks. At the global scale, we presume that droughts have the strongest and most widespread effects on terrestrial carbon cycling. Comparing impacts of climate extremes identified via remote sensing vs. ground-based observational case studies reveals that many regions in the (sub-)tropics are understudied. Hence, regional investigations are needed to allow a global

  5. Radiative heat transfer in the extreme near field.

    PubMed

    Kim, Kyeongtae; Song, Bai; Fernández-Hurtado, Víctor; Lee, Woochul; Jeong, Wonho; Cui, Longji; Thompson, Dakotah; Feist, Johannes; Reid, M T Homer; García-Vidal, Francisco J; Cuevas, Juan Carlos; Meyhofer, Edgar; Reddy, Pramod

    2015-12-17

    Radiative transfer of energy at the nanometre length scale is of great importance to a variety of technologies including heat-assisted magnetic recording, near-field thermophotovoltaics and lithography. Although experimental advances have enabled elucidation of near-field radiative heat transfer in gaps as small as 20-30 nanometres (refs 4-6), quantitative analysis in the extreme near field (less than 10 nanometres) has been greatly limited by experimental challenges. Moreover, the results of pioneering measurements differed from theoretical predictions by orders of magnitude. Here we use custom-fabricated scanning probes with embedded thermocouples, in conjunction with new microdevices capable of periodic temperature modulation, to measure radiative heat transfer down to gaps as small as two nanometres. For our experiments we deposited suitably chosen metal or dielectric layers on the scanning probes and microdevices, enabling direct study of extreme near-field radiation between silica-silica, silicon nitride-silicon nitride and gold-gold surfaces to reveal marked, gap-size-dependent enhancements of radiative heat transfer. Furthermore, our state-of-the-art calculations of radiative heat transfer, performed within the theoretical framework of fluctuational electrodynamics, are in excellent agreement with our experimental results, providing unambiguous evidence that confirms the validity of this theory for modelling radiative heat transfer in gaps as small as a few nanometres. This work lays the foundations required for the rational design of novel technologies that leverage nanoscale radiative heat transfer.

  6. Radiative heat transfer in the extreme near field.

    PubMed

    Kim, Kyeongtae; Song, Bai; Fernández-Hurtado, Víctor; Lee, Woochul; Jeong, Wonho; Cui, Longji; Thompson, Dakotah; Feist, Johannes; Reid, M T Homer; García-Vidal, Francisco J; Cuevas, Juan Carlos; Meyhofer, Edgar; Reddy, Pramod

    2015-12-17

    Radiative transfer of energy at the nanometre length scale is of great importance to a variety of technologies including heat-assisted magnetic recording, near-field thermophotovoltaics and lithography. Although experimental advances have enabled elucidation of near-field radiative heat transfer in gaps as small as 20-30 nanometres (refs 4-6), quantitative analysis in the extreme near field (less than 10 nanometres) has been greatly limited by experimental challenges. Moreover, the results of pioneering measurements differed from theoretical predictions by orders of magnitude. Here we use custom-fabricated scanning probes with embedded thermocouples, in conjunction with new microdevices capable of periodic temperature modulation, to measure radiative heat transfer down to gaps as small as two nanometres. For our experiments we deposited suitably chosen metal or dielectric layers on the scanning probes and microdevices, enabling direct study of extreme near-field radiation between silica-silica, silicon nitride-silicon nitride and gold-gold surfaces to reveal marked, gap-size-dependent enhancements of radiative heat transfer. Furthermore, our state-of-the-art calculations of radiative heat transfer, performed within the theoretical framework of fluctuational electrodynamics, are in excellent agreement with our experimental results, providing unambiguous evidence that confirms the validity of this theory for modelling radiative heat transfer in gaps as small as a few nanometres. This work lays the foundations required for the rational design of novel technologies that leverage nanoscale radiative heat transfer. PMID:26641312

  7. Magnitude of extreme heat waves in present climate and their projection in a warming world

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Russo, Simone; Dosio, Alessandro; Graversen, Rune G.; Sillmann, Jana; Carrao, Hugo; Dunbar, Martha B.; Singleton, Andrew; Montagna, Paolo; Barbola, Paulo; Vogt, Jürgen V.

    2014-11-01

    An extreme heat wave occurred in Russia in the summer of 2010. It had serious impacts on humans and natural ecosystems, it was the strongest recorded globally in recent decades and exceeded in amplitude and spatial extent the previous hottest European summer in 2003. Earlier studies have not succeeded in comparing the magnitude of heat waves across continents and in time. This study introduces a new Heat Wave Magnitude Index that can be compared over space and time. The index is based on the analysis of daily maximum temperature in order to classify the strongest heat waves that occurred worldwide during the three study periods 1980-1990, 1991-2001, and 2002-2012. In addition, multimodel ensemble outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 are used to project future occurrence and severity of heat waves, under different Representative Concentration Pathways, adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for its Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Results show that the percentage of global area affected by heat waves has increased in recent decades. Moreover, model predictions reveal an increase in the probability of occurrence of extreme and very extreme heat waves in the coming years, in particular, by the end of this century, under the most severe IPCC AR5 scenario, events of the same severity as that in Russia in the summer of 2010 will become the norm and are projected to occur as often as every 2 years for regions such as southern Europe, North America, South America, Africa, and Indonesia.

  8. Preparing for Extreme Heat Events: Practices in Identifying Mortality.

    PubMed

    McCormick, Sabrina; Madrigano, Jaime; Zinsmeister, Emma

    2016-01-01

    Climate change is increasing the frequency and severity of extreme heat events. These events affect cities in increasingly abrupt and catastrophic ways; yet, many of the deaths caused by exposure to heat have gone unnoticed or are inaccurately identified, resulting in a lack of urgency in addressing this issue. We aim to address this under-identification of deaths from heat waves in order to better assess heat risk. We investigated death records in New York City from 2010 to 2012 to identify characteristics that vary between deaths officially categorized as caused by heat wave exposure (oHDs) and those possibly caused by heat (pHDs). We found that oHDs were more often black and of a younger age than would typically be expected. We also found that there was a lack of evidence to substantiate that an oHD had occurred, using the NYC official criteria. We conclude that deaths from heat waves are not being accurately recorded, leading to a mis-estimation. Training regarding the collection and interpretation of evidence may improve preparedness for heat events. PMID:27081884

  9. The new limit of heat transfer under extreme strain

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Victor; Chen, Renkun; Chang, Chih-Wei

    2012-12-01

    Theoretical works have predicted that the thermal conductance of a deformed 1D system will start to decrease when the radius of curvature (Rc) is comparable to the phonon mean free path (l). However, due to limited mechanical strengths and short phonon mean free paths of most materials, no experimental works are capable of testing this fundamental limit of heat transfer so far. Here we utilize the superior mechanical strength and the high thermal conductivity of single-wall carbon nanotubes (SWCNTs) to investigate the heat transfer phenomena at previously inaccessible experimental regime. Surprisingly, the thermal conductivity of SWCNTs remains intact under cyclic strains and the ultimate condition of l/Rc > 10. Moreover, the robustness of heat transfer is found to be independent of defects, dislocations, structural kinks, bent angles, or bent curvatures. Our results demonstrate that SWCNTs are exceptional 1D thermal conductors with capabilities of going beyond the fundamental limit of heat transfer under extreme strain.

  10. Future Extreme Sea Level Variability in the Tropical Pacific

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Widlansky, M. J.; Timmermann, A.; Stuecker, M. F.; McGregor, S.; Cai, W.; Chikamoto, Y.

    2014-12-01

    During strong El Niño events, sea level drops around tropical western Pacific islands by up to 20-30 cm. Such extreme events (referred to in Samoa as 'taimasa') expose shallow reefs, thereby damaging associated coastal ecosystems and contributing to the formation of 'flat topped coral heads' often referred to as microatolls. We show that during the termination of strong El Niño events, a southward movement of weak trade winds prolongs extreme low sea levels in the southwestern Pacific. Whereas future sea levels are projected to gradually rise, recent modeling evidence suggests that the frequency of strong El Niño events (which alter local trade winds and sea level) is very likely to increase with greenhouse warming. Such changes could exacerbate El Niño-related sea level drops, especially in the tropical southwestern Pacific. Using present-generation coupled climate models forced with increasing greenhouse-gas concentrations, we assess how the interplay between global mean sea level rise, on one hand, and more frequent interannual sea level drops, on the other, will affect future coastal sea levels in the tropical Pacific.

  11. Historical warnings of future food insecurity with unprecedented seasonal heat.

    PubMed

    Battisti, David S; Naylor, Rosamond L

    2009-01-01

    Higher growing season temperatures can have dramatic impacts on agricultural productivity, farm incomes, and food security. We used observational data and output from 23 global climate models to show a high probability (>90%) that growing season temperatures in the tropics and subtropics by the end of the 21st century will exceed the most extreme seasonal temperatures recorded from 1900 to 2006. In temperate regions, the hottest seasons on record will represent the future norm in many locations. We used historical examples to illustrate the magnitude of damage to food systems caused by extreme seasonal heat and show that these short-run events could become long-term trends without sufficient investments in adaptation.

  12. Historical warnings of future food insecurity with unprecedented seasonal heat.

    PubMed

    Battisti, David S; Naylor, Rosamond L

    2009-01-01

    Higher growing season temperatures can have dramatic impacts on agricultural productivity, farm incomes, and food security. We used observational data and output from 23 global climate models to show a high probability (>90%) that growing season temperatures in the tropics and subtropics by the end of the 21st century will exceed the most extreme seasonal temperatures recorded from 1900 to 2006. In temperate regions, the hottest seasons on record will represent the future norm in many locations. We used historical examples to illustrate the magnitude of damage to food systems caused by extreme seasonal heat and show that these short-run events could become long-term trends without sufficient investments in adaptation. PMID:19131626

  13. Analysis of the September 2010 Los Angeles Extreme Heating Event

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    King, K. C.; Kaplan, M. L.; Smith, C.; Tilley, J.

    2015-12-01

    The Southern California coastal region has a temperate climate, however, there are days with extreme heating where temperatures may reach above 37°C, stressing the region's power grid, leading to health issues, and creating environments susceptible to fires. These extreme localized heating events occur over a short period, from a few hours to one to two days and may or may not occur in conjunction with high winds. The Santa Ana winds are a well-studied example of this type of phenomena. On September 27, 2010, Los Angeles, CA (LA), reached a record maximum temperature of 45°C during an extreme heating event that was not a Santa Ana event. We analyzed the event using observations, reanalysis data, and mesoscale simulations with the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to understand the mechanisms of extreme heating and provide guidance on forecasting similar events. On 26 September 2010, a large synoptic ridge overturned and broke over the midwestern United States (US), driving momentum and internal energy to the southwest. A large pool of hot air at mid-levels over the four-corners region also shifted west, moving into southern California by 26 September. This hot air resided over the LA basin, just above the surface, by 00 GMT on 27 September. At this time, the pressure gradient at low levels was weak. Based on WRF model and wind profiler/RASS observations, we propose that separate mountain-plains solenoids (MPS) occurred on both 26 and 27 of September. The MPS on 26 September moved the hot air into place just above the surface over the LA basin. Overnight, the hot air is trapped near the surface due to the action of gravity waves in conjunction with orographic density currents and remnant migrating solenoids that form over the mountains surrounding LA. When the MPS forms during the late morning on the 27th, the descending return branch flow plus surface sensible heating creates a mechanism to move the heat to the surface, leading to record temperatures.

  14. Enceladus' extreme heat flux as revealed by its relaxed craters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bland, Michael T.; Singer, Kelsi N.; McKinnon, William B.; Schenk, Paul M.

    2012-09-01

    Enceladus' cratered terrains contain large numbers of unusually shallow craters consistent with deformation by viscous relaxation of water ice under conditions of elevated heat flow. Here we use high-resolution topography to measure the relaxation fraction of craters on Enceladus far from the active South Pole. We find that many craters are shallower than expected, with craters as small as 2 km in diameter having relaxation fractions in excess of 90%. These measurements are compared with numerical simulations of crater relaxation to constrain the minimum heat flux required to reproduce these observations. We find that Enceladus' nominal cold surface temperature (70 K) and low surface gravity strongly inhibit viscous relaxation. Under such conditions less than 3% relaxation occurs over 2 Ga even for relatively large craters (diameter 24 km) and high, constant heat fluxes (150 mW m-2). Greater viscous relaxation occurs if the effective temperature at the top of the lithosphere is greater than the surface temperature due to insulating regolith and/or plume material. Even for an effective temperature of 120 K, however, heat fluxes in excess of 150 mW m-2 are required to produce the degree of relaxation observed. Simulations of viscous relaxation of Enceladus' largest craters suggest that relaxation is best explained by a relatively short-lived period of intense heating that decayed quickly. We show that infilling of craters by plume material cannot explain the extremely shallow craters at equatorial and higher northern latitudes. Thus, like Enceladus' tectonic terrains, the cratered regions of Enceladus have experienced periods of extreme heat flux.

  15. Temporal & Spatial Distribution of Extreme Heat Event in NYC Metro-Area

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alvi, M. N.

    2012-12-01

    Recent studies indicate an increase in extreme summer weather events that may be linked to global warming. Heat wave intensity and frequency trends are a relatively unexplored topic that may demonstrate a more pronounced global warming manifestation than general climate change. Extreme heat events have adverse effects on both, ecosystems and human health, killing over 70,000 in 2003 alone. This study aims to validate that extreme heat events have been increasing in intensity, frequency, duration and affected-area over the past 40 years. The importance of properly defining heat events is stressed. As there is no exact definition, this study uses the adjusted NOAA National Weather Service definition, in terms of heat index, a reference to human comfort as defined by temperature and humidity. A heat wave is defined when maximum outside conditions of human comfort levels are present for consecutive days. Complex cities such as New York (NYC) are also expected to experience more intense heat events when considering the Urban Heat Island Effect. To observe the extent of recent heat events in NYC, heat event trends were produced using data from up to 59 NYCMetNet surface weather stations covering all five boroughs of the City. Map comparisons of heat events from recent years (2010-2012) demonstrate an increase in the effected metro areas with concentrated maximums in the northwest part of the city, attributed to the dense urban landscape and a converging wind zone. To investigate temporal trends of heat waves in NYC, four NOAA-NCDC weather stations in the NYC Metro Area were used, providing data from 1973-2012. The time series results indicate that heat wave maximum intensities are increasing in NYC as a function of time since 1973 at a rate of 1.2°C/decade. The temporal plots demonstrate an annual increase in maximum intensity, frequency, and average event duration that could be attributed to increasing heat island and global warming. Future studies will expand this

  16. Future climate projections of extreme precipitation and temperature distributions by using an Extreme Value Theory non-stationary model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Casati, B.; Lefaivre, L.

    2009-04-01

    Extreme weather events can cause large damages and losses, and have high societal and economical impacts. Climate model integrations predict increases in both frequency and intensity of extreme events under enhanced greenhouse conditions. Better understanding of the capabilities of climate models in representing the present climate extremes, joint with the analysis of the future climate projections for extreme events, can help to forewarn society from future high-impact events, and possibly better develop adaptation strategies. Extreme Value Theory (EVT) provides a well established and robust framework to analyse the behaviour of extreme weather events for the present climate and future projections. In this study a non-stationary model for Generalised Extreme Value (GEV) distributions is used to analyse the trend of the distributions of extreme precipitation and temperatures, in the context of a changing climate. The analysis is performed for the climate projections of the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM), under a SRES A2 emission scenario, for annual, seasonal and monthly extremes, for 12 regions characterised by different climatologies over the North American domain. Significant positive trends for the location of the distributions are found in most regions, indicating an expected increase in extreme value intensities, whereas the scale (variability) and shape (tail values) of the extreme distributions seem not to vary significantly. Extreme events, such as intense convective precipitation, are often associated to small-scale features. The enhanced resolution of Regional Climate Models enables to better represent such extreme events, with respect to Global Climate Models. However the resolution of these models is sometimes still too coarse to reproduce realistic extremes. To address this representativeness issue, statistical downscaling of the CRCM projections is performed. The downscaling relation is obtained by comparing the GEV distributions for the CRCM

  17. Techniques that Link Extreme Events to the Large Scale, Applied to California Heat Waves

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grotjahn, R.

    2015-12-01

    Understanding the mechanisms how Californian Central Valley (CCV) summer extreme hot spells develop is very important since the events have major impacts on the economy and human safety. Results from a series of CCV heat wave studies will be presented, emphasizing the techniques used. Key larger scale elements are identified statistically that are also consistent with synoptic and dynamic understanding of what must be present during extreme heat. Beyond providing a clear synoptic explanation, these key elements have high predictability, in part because soil moisture has little annual variation in the heavily-irrigated CCV. In turn, the predictability naturally leads to an effective tool to assess climate model simulation of these heat waves in historical and future climate scenarios. (Does the model develop extreme heat for the correct reasons?) Further work identified that these large scale elements arise in two quite different ways: one from expansion southwestward of a pre-existing heat wave in southwest Canada, the other formed in place from parcels traversing the North Pacific. The pre-existing heat wave explains an early result showing correlation between heat waves in Sacramento California, and other locations along the US west coast, including distant Seattle Washington. CCV heat waves can be preceded by unusually strong tropical Indian Ocean and Indonesian convection, this partial link may occur through an Asian subtropical jet wave guide. Another link revealed by diagnostics is a middle and higher latitude source of wave activity in Siberia and East Asia that also leads to the development of the CCV heat wave. This talk will address as many of these results and the tools used to obtain them as is reasonable within the available time.

  18. Extreme Heat Stress trends in ERA Interim 1979-2011

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Buzan, J. R.; Huber, M.

    2012-12-01

    Heat stress is a function of temperature and humidity, and is therefore subject to the covariance of the two quantities. One of the robust predictions from climate change is an increase in temperatures across the planet, and therefore heat stress is projected to increase, however the covariance with humidity is less sure. It has been proposed that in future climate, significant portions of the land surface become subject to life threatening heat stress levels to humans and mammals. There are numerous methods and metrics for calculating heat stress, however, the majority use atmospheric state variables (pressure, temperature, and specific humidity), to measure the thermodynamic state of the atmosphere or estimate thermal load on humans and mammals. Here we present calculations of the evolution of heat stress for the past 3 decades using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ERA Interim reanalysis data product from near surface boundary layer state variables. We characterize both spatial and temporal trends with a variety of the most commonly used heat stress metrics (wet bulb temperatures, heat index, etc.). The metrics are calculated from 4x daily values to capture both the diurnal cycle and the daily peak values for these indices.

  19. An 'extreme' future for estuaries? Effects of extreme climatic events on estuarine water quality and ecology.

    PubMed

    Wetz, Michael S; Yoskowitz, David W

    2013-04-15

    Recent climate observations suggest that extreme climatic events (ECE; droughts, floods, tropical cyclones, heat waves) have increased in frequency and/or intensity in certain world regions, consistent with climate model projections that account for man's influence on the global climate system. A synthesis of existing literature is presented and shows that ECE affect estuarine water quality by altering: (1) the delivery and processing of nutrients and organic matter, (2) physical-chemical properties of estuaries, and (3) ecosystem structure and function. From the standpoint of estuarine scientists and resource managers, a major scientific challenge will be to project the estuarine response to ECE that will co-occur with other important environmental changes (i.e., natural climate variability, global warming, sea level rise, eutrophication), as this will affect the provisioning of important ecosystem services provided by estuaries.

  20. Hot bats: extreme thermal tolerance in a desert heat wave.

    PubMed

    Bondarenco, Artiom; Körtner, Gerhard; Geiser, Fritz

    2014-08-01

    Climate change is predicted to increase temperature extremes and thus thermal stress on organisms. Animals living in hot deserts are already exposed to high ambient temperatures (T a) making them especially vulnerable to further warming. However, little is known about the effect of extreme heat events on small desert mammals, especially tree-roosting microbats that are not strongly protected from environmental temperature fluctuations. During a heat wave with record T as at Sturt National Park, we quantified the thermal physiology and behaviour of a single free-ranging little broad-nosed (Scotorepens greyii, henceforth Scotorepens) and two inland freetail bats (Mormopterus species 3, henceforth Mormopterus) using temperature telemetry over 3 days. On 11 and 13 January, maximum T a was ∼45.0 °C, and all monitored bats were thermoconforming. On 12 January 2013, when T a exceeded 48.0 °C, Scotorepens abandoned its poorly insulated roost during the daytime, whereas both Mormopterus remained in their better insulated roosts and were mostly thermoconforming. Maximum skin temperatures (T skin) ranged from 44.0 to 44.3 °C in Scotorepens and from 40.0 to 45.8 °C in Mormopterus, and these are the highest T skin values reported for any free-ranging bat. Our study provides the first evidence of extensive heat tolerance in free-ranging desert microbats. It shows that these bats can tolerate the most extreme T skin range known for mammals (3.3 to 45.8 °C) and delay regulation of T skin by thermoconforming over a wide temperature range and thus decrease the risks of dehydration and consequently death.

  1. Hot bats: extreme thermal tolerance in a desert heat wave

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bondarenco, Artiom; Körtner, Gerhard; Geiser, Fritz

    2014-08-01

    Climate change is predicted to increase temperature extremes and thus thermal stress on organisms. Animals living in hot deserts are already exposed to high ambient temperatures ( T a) making them especially vulnerable to further warming. However, little is known about the effect of extreme heat events on small desert mammals, especially tree-roosting microbats that are not strongly protected from environmental temperature fluctuations. During a heat wave with record T as at Sturt National Park, we quantified the thermal physiology and behaviour of a single free-ranging little broad-nosed ( Scotorepens greyii, henceforth Scotorepens) and two inland freetail bats ( Mormopterus species 3, henceforth Mormopterus) using temperature telemetry over 3 days. On 11 and 13 January, maximum T a was ˜45.0 °C, and all monitored bats were thermoconforming. On 12 January 2013, when T a exceeded 48.0 °C, Scotorepens abandoned its poorly insulated roost during the daytime, whereas both Mormopterus remained in their better insulated roosts and were mostly thermoconforming. Maximum skin temperatures ( T skin) ranged from 44.0 to 44.3 °C in Scotorepens and from 40.0 to 45.8 °C in Mormopterus, and these are the highest T skin values reported for any free-ranging bat. Our study provides the first evidence of extensive heat tolerance in free-ranging desert microbats. It shows that these bats can tolerate the most extreme T skin range known for mammals (3.3 to 45.8 °C) and delay regulation of T skin by thermoconforming over a wide temperature range and thus decrease the risks of dehydration and consequently death.

  2. Hot bats: extreme thermal tolerance in a desert heat wave.

    PubMed

    Bondarenco, Artiom; Körtner, Gerhard; Geiser, Fritz

    2014-08-01

    Climate change is predicted to increase temperature extremes and thus thermal stress on organisms. Animals living in hot deserts are already exposed to high ambient temperatures (T a) making them especially vulnerable to further warming. However, little is known about the effect of extreme heat events on small desert mammals, especially tree-roosting microbats that are not strongly protected from environmental temperature fluctuations. During a heat wave with record T as at Sturt National Park, we quantified the thermal physiology and behaviour of a single free-ranging little broad-nosed (Scotorepens greyii, henceforth Scotorepens) and two inland freetail bats (Mormopterus species 3, henceforth Mormopterus) using temperature telemetry over 3 days. On 11 and 13 January, maximum T a was ∼45.0 °C, and all monitored bats were thermoconforming. On 12 January 2013, when T a exceeded 48.0 °C, Scotorepens abandoned its poorly insulated roost during the daytime, whereas both Mormopterus remained in their better insulated roosts and were mostly thermoconforming. Maximum skin temperatures (T skin) ranged from 44.0 to 44.3 °C in Scotorepens and from 40.0 to 45.8 °C in Mormopterus, and these are the highest T skin values reported for any free-ranging bat. Our study provides the first evidence of extensive heat tolerance in free-ranging desert microbats. It shows that these bats can tolerate the most extreme T skin range known for mammals (3.3 to 45.8 °C) and delay regulation of T skin by thermoconforming over a wide temperature range and thus decrease the risks of dehydration and consequently death. PMID:25005222

  3. Assessing the impact of future climate extremes on the US corn and soybean production

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jin, Z.

    2015-12-01

    Future climate changes will place big challenges to the US agricultural system, among which increasing heat stress and precipitation variability were the two major concerns. Reliable prediction of crop productions in response to the increasingly frequent and severe extreme climate is a prerequisite for developing adaptive strategies on agricultural risk management. However, the progress has been slow on quantifying the uncertainty of computational predictions at high spatial resolutions. Here we assessed the risks of future climate extremes on the US corn and soybean production using the Agricultural Production System sIMulator (APSIM) model under different climate scenarios. To quantify the uncertainty due to conceptual representations of heat, drought and flooding stress in crop models, we proposed a new strategy of algorithm ensemble in which different methods for simulating crop responses to those extreme climatic events were incorporated into the APSIM. This strategy allowed us to isolate irrelevant structure differences among existing crop models but only focus on the process of interest. Future climate inputs were derived from high-spatial-resolution (12km × 12km) Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) simulations under Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 (RCP 4.5) and 8.5 (RCP 8.5). Based on crop model simulations, we analyzed the magnitude and frequency of heat, drought and flooding stress for the 21st century. We also evaluated the water use efficiency and water deficit on regional scales if farmers were to boost their yield by applying more fertilizers. Finally we proposed spatially explicit adaptation strategies of irrigation and fertilizing for different management zones.

  4. Population exposure to heat-related extremes: Demographic change vs climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jones, B.; O'Neill, B. C.; Tebaldi, C.; Oleson, K. W.

    2014-12-01

    Extreme heat events are projected to increase in frequency and intensity in the coming decades [1]. The physical effects of extreme heat on human populations are well-documented, and anticipating changes in future exposure to extreme heat is a key component of adequate planning/mitigation [2, 3]. Exposure to extreme heat depends not only on changing climate, but also on changes in the size and spatial distribution of the human population. Here we focus on systematically quantifying exposure to extreme heat as a function of both climate and population change. We compare exposure outcomes across multiple global climate and spatial population scenarios, and characterize the relative contributions of each to population exposure to extreme heat. We consider a 2 x 2 matrix of climate and population output, using projections of heat extremes corresponding to RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 from the NCAR community land model, and spatial population projections for SSP 3 and SSP 5 from the NCAR spatial population downscaling model. Our primary comparison is across RCPs - exposure outcomes from RCP 4.5 versus RCP 8.5 - paying particular attention to how variation depends on the choice of SSP in terms of aggregate global and regional exposure, as well as the spatial distribution of exposure. We assess how aggregate exposure changes based on the choice of SSP, and which driver is more important, population or climate change (i.e. does that outcome vary more as a result of RCP or SSP). We further decompose the population component to analyze the contributions of total population change, migration, and changes in local spatial structure. Preliminary results from a similar study of the US suggests a four-to-six fold increase in total exposure by the latter half of the 21st century. Changes in population are as important as changes in climate in driving this outcome, and there is regional variation in the relative importance of each. Aggregate population growth, as well as redistribution of

  5. A cross-sectional, randomized cluster sample survey of household vulnerability to extreme heat among slum dwellers in ahmedabad, india.

    PubMed

    Tran, Kathy V; Azhar, Gulrez S; Nair, Rajesh; Knowlton, Kim; Jaiswal, Anjali; Sheffield, Perry; Mavalankar, Dileep; Hess, Jeremy

    2013-06-18

    Extreme heat is a significant public health concern in India; extreme heat hazards are projected to increase in frequency and severity with climate change. Few of the factors driving population heat vulnerability are documented, though poverty is a presumed risk factor. To facilitate public health preparedness, an assessment of factors affecting vulnerability among slum dwellers was conducted in summer 2011 in Ahmedabad, Gujarat, India. Indicators of heat exposure, susceptibility to heat illness, and adaptive capacity, all of which feed into heat vulnerability, was assessed through a cross-sectional household survey using randomized multistage cluster sampling. Associations between heat-related morbidity and vulnerability factors were identified using multivariate logistic regression with generalized estimating equations to account for clustering effects. Age, preexisting medical conditions, work location, and access to health information and resources were associated with self-reported heat illness. Several of these variables were unique to this study. As sociodemographics, occupational heat exposure, and access to resources were shown to increase vulnerability, future interventions (e.g., health education) might target specific populations among Ahmedabad urban slum dwellers to reduce vulnerability to extreme heat. Surveillance and evaluations of future interventions may also be worthwhile.

  6. Extreme Hot Days future projections using Circulation Types

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Andres Garcia-Valero, Juan; Fernández-Montes, Sonia; Jerez, Sonia; Montávez, Juan Pedro; Gómez-Navarro, Juan Jose

    2016-04-01

    This work presents an ensemble of future climate change projections of Extreme Hot Days (EHDs) for Spain. EHD are defined as the days with temperature over the 95 percentile of extended 8 summer regional series (Garcia-Valero et al, 2015). The ensemble consist of 18 members. These come from varying the RPC (4.5 and 8.5), the global model (MPIM,EC-EARTH, CCSM) and the Circulation Type (CT) classification (Z500-SLP, Z500-T850, SLP-T850) obtained in Garcia-Valero et al (2015). Firstly, the ability of GCMs for representing the observed extreme CTs in the historical runs is assessed. All models represent satisfactory most CTs for all classifications, being the bias errors of the frequency appearance of the CTs always under the 15%. Results indicate that the CTs having the largest efficiencies in EHD production has the biggest increase along the next century. This leads to that all regions strongly increase the frequency appearance of EHD. The EHD increase is larger in the inner regions towards the north of Spain, reaching an increase of 3 times the current frequency at the end of this century . This shift is mainly attributable to changes in the atmospheric dynamics. It is very likely that the this value is a low boundary of EHD positive change, since most regional processes (feedbacks, persistence, etc) tends to increase high temperature events. In addition, an analysis of uncertainties has been carried out. An ANOVA analysis shows that the uncertainty associated to each source (GCMs, CT-class, RPC) depends on the region. However the general behavior is that the largest uncertainty is assigned to the GCM, while RCP and CT-class presents similar uncertainty.

  7. [Sports and extreme conditions. Cardiovascular incidence in long term exertion and extreme temperatures (heat, cold)].

    PubMed

    Melin, B; Savourey, G

    2001-06-30

    During ultra-endurance exercise, both increase in body temperature and dehydration due to sweat losses, lead to a decrease in central blood volume. The heart rate drift allows maintaining appropriate cardiac output, in order to satisfy both muscle perfusion and heat transfer requirements by increasing skin blood flow. The resulting dehydration can impair thermal regulation and increase the risks of serious accidents as heat stroke. Endurance events, lasting more than 8 hours, result in large sweat sodium chloride losses. Thus, ingestion of large amounts of water with poor salt intake can induce symptomatic hyponatremia (plasma sodium < 130 mEq/L) which is also a serious accident. Heat environment increases the thermal constraint and when the air humidity is high, evaporation of sweat is compromise. Thus, thermal stress becomes uncompensable which increases the risk of cardiovascular collapse. Cold exposure induces physiological responses to maintain internal temperature by both limiting thermal losses and increasing metabolic heat production. Cold can induce accidental hypothermia and local frost-bites; moreover, it increases the risk of arrhythmia during exercise. Some guidelines (cardiovascular fitness, water and electrolyte intakes, protective clothing) are given for each extreme condition. PMID:11505864

  8. Responses of tree species to heat waves and extreme heat events.

    PubMed

    Teskey, Robert; Wertin, Timothy; Bauweraerts, Ingvar; Ameye, Maarten; McGuire, Mary Anne; Steppe, Kathy

    2015-09-01

    The number and intensity of heat waves has increased, and this trend is likely to continue throughout the 21st century. Often, heat waves are accompanied by drought conditions. It is projected that the global land area experiencing heat waves will double by 2020, and quadruple by 2040. Extreme heat events can impact a wide variety of tree functions. At the leaf level, photosynthesis is reduced, photooxidative stress increases, leaves abscise and the growth rate of remaining leaves decreases. In some species, stomatal conductance increases at high temperatures, which may be a mechanism for leaf cooling. At the whole plant level, heat stress can decrease growth and shift biomass allocation. When drought stress accompanies heat waves, the negative effects of heat stress are exacerbated and can lead to tree mortality. However, some species exhibit remarkable tolerance to thermal stress. Responses include changes that minimize stress on photosynthesis and reductions in dark respiration. Although there have been few studies to date, there is evidence of within-species genetic variation in thermal tolerance, which could be important to exploit in production forestry systems. Understanding the mechanisms of differing tree responses to extreme temperature events may be critically important for understanding how tree species will be affected by climate change.

  9. Carbon cycle extremes during the 21st century in CMIP5 models: Future evolution and attribution to climatic drivers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zscheischler, Jakob; Reichstein, Markus; von Buttlar, Jannis; Mu, Mingquan; Randerson, James T.; Mahecha, Miguel D.

    2014-12-01

    Climate extremes such as droughts and heat waves affect terrestrial ecosystems and may alter local carbon budgets. However, it still remains uncertain to what degree extreme impacts in the carbon cycle influence the carbon cycle-climate feedback both today and the near future. Here we analyze spatiotemporally contiguous negative extreme anomalies in gross primary production (GPP) and net ecosystem production (NEP) in model output of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble and investigate their future development and attribution to climatic drivers. We find that relative to the overall increase in global carbon uptake, negative extremes in GPP and NEP lose importance toward the end of the 21st century. This effect can be related to elevated CO2 concentrations and higher amounts of available water at the global scale, partially mitigating the impacts of droughts and heat waves, respectively. Overall, based on CMIP5 models, we hypothesize that terrestrial ecosystems might be more resilient against future climate extremes than previously thought. Future work will have to further scrutinize these results considering that various biological and biogeochemical feedbacks are not yet integrated within Earth system models.

  10. Climate extremes and climate change: The Russian heat wave and other climate extremes of 2010

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Trenberth, Kevin E.; Fasullo, John T.

    2012-09-01

    A global perspective is developed on a number of high impact climate extremes in 2010 through diagnostic studies of the anomalies, diabatic heating, and global energy and water cycles that demonstrate relationships among variables and across events. Natural variability, especially ENSO, and global warming from human influences together resulted in very high sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in several places that played a vital role in subsequent developments. Record high SSTs in the Northern Indian Ocean in May 2010, the Gulf of Mexico in August 2010, the Caribbean in September 2010, and north of Australia in December 2010 provided a source of unusually abundant atmospheric moisture for nearby monsoon rains and flooding in Pakistan, Colombia, and Queensland. The resulting anomalous diabatic heating in the northern Indian and tropical Atlantic Oceans altered the atmospheric circulation by forcing quasi-stationary Rossby waves and altering monsoons. The anomalous monsoonal circulations had direct links to higher latitudes: from Southeast Asia to southern Russia, and from Colombia to Brazil. Strong convection in the tropical Atlantic in northern summer 2010 was associated with a Rossby wave train that extended into Europe creating anomalous cyclonic conditions over the Mediterranean area while normal anticyclonic conditions shifted downstream where they likely interacted with an anomalously strong monsoon circulation, helping to support the persistent atmospheric anticyclonic regime over Russia. This set the stage for the "blocking" anticyclone and associated Russian heat wave and wild fires. Attribution is limited by shortcomings in models in replicating monsoons, teleconnections and blocking.

  11. Extreme Rivers for Future Climates - Simulation Using Spatial Weather Generator

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kuchar, Leszek; Kosierb, Ryszard; Iwański, Sławomir; Jelonek, Leszek

    2014-05-01

    In this paper an application of spatial weather generator for estimation of probability distributions changes of river flows for selected climate change scenarios and different time horizons are presented. The main studies for the Kaczawa river basin located in Southwest region of Poland are carried out. For the estimation of probability distribution river flow, daily data of SR solar radiation, maximum and minimum air temperature, and total precipitation were obtained for sixteen stations of hydrological network from Institute of Meteorology and Water Management. In addition, daily data of flows from 6 closing water-gauges (partial catchments) were collected. Idea of flow simulation in the Kaczawa river catchment for future climate conditions given by different scenario shall be presented in the paper. First, on the basis of 25-years data series (1981-2005) for 16 stations of meteorological network within or around the Kaczawa river catchment basic climatology characteristics required by weather generator are computed. Then, spatial correlations between variables and stations are added to the characteristics. Next, on the basis of information coming from three climate change scenarios (GISS, GFDL and CCCM) for years 2040, 2060 and 2080 basic climatology characteristics are modified. Then, spatial weather generator SWGEN is used to produce 500 years of synthetic data for 16 stations, given time horizon and scenario. The year 2000 as the background of potential changes in river flow is used together with 500 years of synthetic data. Next, generated data are applied to hydrological model Mike SHE to simulate daily flows for closing water-gauges. The flow are evaluated with different temporal step and characterized by pdf functions. The application of spatial weather generator SWGEN combined with hydrological rainfall-runoff model (Mike SHE Ed. 2008) and climate change scenario, gives various possibilities to study changes in the river catchment coming up to 60

  12. Are heat and cold resistance of arctic species affected by successive extreme temperature events?

    PubMed

    Marchand, F L; Kockelbergh, Fred; van de Vijver, Bart; Beyens, Louis; Nijs, I

    2006-01-01

    Extreme temperature events are projected to increase in frequency in a future climate. As successive extremes could occur more frequently, patches of vulnerable tundra vegetation were exposed to two consecutive heat waves (HWs) of 10 d each, with a 5-d recovery period in between. Surface temperatures during the HWs were increased approximately 6 degrees C using infrared irradiation sources. In three of the four target species (Pyrola grandiflora, Polygonum viviparum and Carex bigelowii), plant conditions improved upon the first exposure. Depending on species, leaf relative growth, leaf chlorophyll content or maximal photochemical efficiency was increased. In P. grandiflora the positive effects of the heat on the photosynthetic apparatus led to augmented net photosynthesis. By contrast, Salix arctica responded mainly negatively, indicating species-specific responses. During the second HW, leaf mortality suddenly increased, indicating that the heat stress induced by the extreme events lasted too long and negatively influenced the species resistance to high temperature. After the HWs, when plants were exposed to (low) ambient temperatures again, plant performance deteriorated further, indicating possible loss of cold resistance.

  13. Urban Heat Island phenomenon in extreme continental climate (Astana, Kazakhstan)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Konstantinov, Pavel; Akhmetova, Alina

    2015-04-01

    Urban Heat Island (UHI) phenomenon is well known in scientific literature since first half of the 19th century [1]. By now a wide number of world capitals is described from climatological point of view, especially in mid-latitudes. In beginning of XXI century new studies focus on heat island of tropical cities. However dynamics UHI in extreme continental climates is insufficiently investigated, due to the fact that there isn't large cities in Europe and Northern America within that climate type. In this paper we investigate seasonal and diurnal dynamics UHI intensity for Astana, capital city of Kazakhstan (population larger than 835 000 within the city) including UHI intensity changes on different time scales. Now (since 1998) Astana is the second coldest capital city in the world after Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia [3] For this study we use the UHI investigation technology, described in [2]. According to this paper, we selected three stations: one located into city in high and midrise buildings area (including extensive lowrise and high-energy industrial - LCZ classification) and two others located in rural site (sparsely built or open-set and lightweight lowrise according LCZ classification). Also these stations must be close by distance (less than 100 km) and altitude. Therefore, first for Astana city were obtained numerical evaluations for UHI climate dynamics, UHI dependence of synoptic situations and total UHI climatology on monthly and daily averages. References: 1.Howard, L. (1833) The Climate of London, Deduced from Meteorological Observations. Volume 2, London. 2.Kukanova E.A., Konstantinov P.I. An urban heat islands climatology in Russia and linkages to the climate change In Geophysical Research Abstracts, volume 16 of EGU General Assembly, pages EGU2014-10833-1, Germany, 2014. Germany. 3.www.pogoda.ru.net

  14. Extreme Heat and Health: Perspectives from Health Service Providers in Rural and Remote Communities in South Australia

    PubMed Central

    Williams, Susan; Bi, Peng; Newbury, Jonathan; Robinson, Guy; Pisaniello, Dino; Saniotis, Arthur; Hansen, Alana

    2013-01-01

    Among the challenges for rural communities and health services in Australia, climate change and increasing extreme heat are emerging as additional stressors. Effective public health responses to extreme heat require an understanding of the impact on health and well-being, and the risk or protective factors within communities. This study draws on lived experiences to explore these issues in eleven rural and remote communities across South Australia, framing these within a socio-ecological model. Semi-structured interviews with health service providers (n = 13), and a thematic analysis of these data, has identified particular challenges for rural communities and their health services during extreme heat. The findings draw attention to the social impacts of extreme heat in rural communities, the protective factors (independence, social support, education, community safety), and challenges for adaptation (vulnerabilities, infrastructure, community demographics, housing and local industries). With temperatures increasing across South Australia, there is a need for local planning and low-cost strategies to address heat-exacerbating factors in rural communities, to minimise the impact of extreme heat in the future. PMID:24173140

  15. A Framework for Spatial Assessment of Local Level Vulnerability and Adaptive Capacity to Extreme Heat

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wilhelmi, O.; Hayden, M.; Harlan, S.; Ruddell, D.; Komatsu, K.; England, B.; Uejio, C.

    2008-12-01

    Changing climate is predicted to increase the intensity and impacts of heat waves prompting the need to develop preparedness and adaptation strategies that reduce societal vulnerability. Central to understanding societal vulnerability, is adaptive capacity, the potential of a system or population to modify its features/behaviors so as to better cope with existing and anticipated stresses and fluctuations. Adaptive capacity influences adaptation, the actual adjustments made to cope with the impacts from current and future hazardous heat events. Understanding societal risks, vulnerabilities and adaptive capacity to extreme heat events and climate change requires an interdisciplinary approach that includes information about weather and climate, the natural and built environment, social processes and characteristics, interactions with the stakeholders, and an assessment of community vulnerability. This project presents a framework for an interdisciplinary approach and a case study that explore linkages between quantitative and qualitative data for a more comprehensive understanding of local level vulnerability and adaptive capacity to extreme heat events in Phoenix, Arizona. In this talk, we will present a methodological framework for conducting collaborative research on societal vulnerability and adaptive capacity on a local level that includes integration of household surveys into a quantitative spatial assessment of societal vulnerability. We highlight a collaborative partnership among researchers, community leaders and public health officials. Linkages between assessment of local adaptive capacity and development of regional climate change adaptation strategies will be discussed.

  16. Future frequencies of extreme weather events in the National Wildlife Refuges of the conterminous U.S.

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Martinuzzi, Sebastian; Allstadt, Andrew J.; Bateman, Brooke L.; Heglund, Patricia J.; Pidgeon, Anna M.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Vavrus, Stephen J.; Radeloff, Volker C.

    2016-01-01

    Climate change is a major challenge for managers of protected areas world-wide, and managers need information about future climate conditions within protected areas. Prior studies of climate change effects in protected areas have largely focused on average climatic conditions. However, extreme weather may have stronger effects on wildlife populations and habitats than changes in averages. Our goal was to quantify future changes in the frequency of extreme heat, drought, and false springs, during the avian breeding season, in 415 National Wildlife Refuges in the conterminous United States. We analyzed spatially detailed data on extreme weather frequencies during the historical period (1950–2005) and under different scenarios of future climate change by mid- and late-21st century. We found that all wildlife refuges will likely experience substantial changes in the frequencies of extreme weather, but the types of projected changes differed among refuges. Extreme heat is projected to increase dramatically in all wildlife refuges, whereas changes in droughts and false springs are projected to increase or decrease on a regional basis. Half of all wildlife refuges are projected to see increases in frequency (> 20% higher than the current rate) in at least two types of weather extremes by mid-century. Wildlife refuges in the Southwest and Pacific Southwest are projected to exhibit the fastest rates of change, and may deserve extra attention. Climate change adaptation strategies in protected areas, such as the U.S. wildlife refuges, may need to seriously consider future changes in extreme weather, including the considerable spatial variation of these changes.

  17. It's the Heat AND the Humidity -- Assessment of Extreme Heat Scenarios to Enable the Assessment of Climate Impacts on Public Health

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Crosson, William L; Al-Hamdan, Mohammad Z.; Economou, Sigrid, A.; Estes, Maurice G.; Estes, Sue M.; Puckett, Mark; Quattrochi, Dale A

    2013-01-01

    In the United States, extreme heat is the most deadly weather-related hazard. In the face of a warming climate and urbanization, which contributes to local-scale urban heat islands, it is very likely that extreme heat events (EHEs) will become more common and more severe in the U.S. In a NASA-funded project supporting the National Climate Assessment, we are providing historical and future measures of extreme heat to enable assessments of the impacts of heat on public health over the coterminous U.S. We use atmospheric temperature and humidity information from meteorological reanalysis and from Global Climate Models (GCMs) to provide data on past and future heat events. The project s emphasis is on providing assessments of the magnitude, frequency and geographic distribution of extreme heat in the U.S. to facilitate public health studies. In our approach, long-term climate change is captured with GCM output, and the temporal and spatial characteristics of short-term extremes are represented by the reanalysis data. Two future time horizons, 2040 and 2090, are the focus of future assessments; these are compared to the recent past period of 1981-2000. We are characterizing regional-scale temperature and humidity conditions using GCM output for two climate change scenarios (A2 and A1B) defined in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). For each future period, 20 years of multi-model GCM output have been analyzed to develop a heat stress climatology based on statistics of extreme heat indicators. Differences between the two future and past periods have been used to define temperature and humidity changes on a monthly time scale and regional spatial scale. These changes, combined with hourly historical meteorological data at a spatial scale (12 km) much finer than that of GCMs, enable us to create future climate realizations, from which we compute the daily heat stress measures and related spatially-specific climatological fields. These include the mean annual

  18. Mechanisms of the Extreme Temperatures and the Precipitation Events in the Future over Korean Peninsula using CORDEX Data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Hyomee; Moon, Byung-Kwon

    2014-05-01

    This study investigates the formation mechanisms of the extreme temperatures and the extreme precipitation in the future Korean Peninsula due to global warming. CORDEX-East Asia data such as the 2 m air temperature, precipitation, sea level pressure, 850 hPa wind, 850 hPa temperature, and 850 hPa specific humidity are analyzed to characterize atmospheric conditions related to future extreme events. The extreme temperatures (>38 °C ) in the mid-southern regions of Korea tend to occur as a result of the heat accumulation by the warm advection originating from eastern China. Adding to advection, the Föhn phenomenon seems to produce more warming. In the case of precipitation, extreme events (>500 mm day-1) tend to occur as a result of the transport of water vapor by the south-westerly flow, with precipitation belt stretching from eastern China to Korea. A climate change also leads to an increase in the mean, variance, frequency, and 95 percentile value of the extreme events. This study will facilitate a better understanding of the formation mechanisms of the extreme events over Korea in a warming environment.

  19. Future extreme sea level seesaws in the tropical Pacific

    PubMed Central

    Widlansky, Matthew J.; Timmermann, Axel; Cai, Wenju

    2015-01-01

    Global mean sea levels are projected to gradually rise in response to greenhouse warming. However, on shorter time scales, modes of natural climate variability in the Pacific, such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), can affect regional sea level variability and extremes, with considerable impacts on coastal ecosystems and island nations. How these shorter-term sea level fluctuations will change in association with a projected increase in extreme El Niño and its atmospheric variability remains unknown. Using present-generation coupled climate models forced with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations and subtracting the effect of global mean sea level rise, we find that climate change will enhance El Niño–related sea level extremes, especially in the tropical southwestern Pacific, where very low sea level events, locally known as Taimasa, are projected to double in occurrence. Additionally, and throughout the tropical Pacific, prolonged interannual sea level inundations are also found to become more likely with greenhouse warming and increased frequency of extreme La Niña events, thus exacerbating the coastal impacts of the projected global mean sea level rise. PMID:26601272

  20. Future extreme sea level seesaws in the tropical Pacific.

    PubMed

    Widlansky, Matthew J; Timmermann, Axel; Cai, Wenju

    2015-09-01

    Global mean sea levels are projected to gradually rise in response to greenhouse warming. However, on shorter time scales, modes of natural climate variability in the Pacific, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), can affect regional sea level variability and extremes, with considerable impacts on coastal ecosystems and island nations. How these shorter-term sea level fluctuations will change in association with a projected increase in extreme El Niño and its atmospheric variability remains unknown. Using present-generation coupled climate models forced with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations and subtracting the effect of global mean sea level rise, we find that climate change will enhance El Niño-related sea level extremes, especially in the tropical southwestern Pacific, where very low sea level events, locally known as Taimasa, are projected to double in occurrence. Additionally, and throughout the tropical Pacific, prolonged interannual sea level inundations are also found to become more likely with greenhouse warming and increased frequency of extreme La Niña events, thus exacerbating the coastal impacts of the projected global mean sea level rise. PMID:26601272

  1. Future extreme sea level seesaws in the tropical Pacific.

    PubMed

    Widlansky, Matthew J; Timmermann, Axel; Cai, Wenju

    2015-09-01

    Global mean sea levels are projected to gradually rise in response to greenhouse warming. However, on shorter time scales, modes of natural climate variability in the Pacific, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), can affect regional sea level variability and extremes, with considerable impacts on coastal ecosystems and island nations. How these shorter-term sea level fluctuations will change in association with a projected increase in extreme El Niño and its atmospheric variability remains unknown. Using present-generation coupled climate models forced with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations and subtracting the effect of global mean sea level rise, we find that climate change will enhance El Niño-related sea level extremes, especially in the tropical southwestern Pacific, where very low sea level events, locally known as Taimasa, are projected to double in occurrence. Additionally, and throughout the tropical Pacific, prolonged interannual sea level inundations are also found to become more likely with greenhouse warming and increased frequency of extreme La Niña events, thus exacerbating the coastal impacts of the projected global mean sea level rise.

  2. Excess Mortality Attributable to Extreme Heat in New York City, 1997-2013.

    PubMed

    Matte, Thomas D; Lane, Kathryn; Ito, Kazuhiko

    2016-01-01

    Extreme heat event excess mortality has been estimated statistically to assess impacts, evaluate heat emergency response, and project climate change risks. We estimated annual excess non-external-cause deaths associated with extreme heat events in New York City (NYC). Extreme heat events were defined as days meeting current National Weather Service forecast criteria for issuing heat advisories in NYC based on observed maximum daily heat index values from LaGuardia Airport. Outcomes were daily non-external-cause death counts for NYC residents from May through September from 1997 to 2013 (n = 337,162). The cumulative relative risk (CRR) of death associated with extreme heat events was estimated in a Poisson time-series model for each year using an unconstrained distributed lag for days 0-3 accommodating over dispersion, and adjusting for within-season trends and day of week. Attributable death counts were computed by year based on individual year CRRs. The pooled CRR per extreme heat event day was 1.11 (95%CI 1.08-1.14). The estimated annual excess non-external-cause deaths attributable to heat waves ranged from -14 to 358, with a median of 121. Point estimates of heat wave-attributable deaths were greater than 0 in all years but one and were correlated with the number of heat wave days (r = 0.81). Average excess non-external-cause deaths associated with extreme heat events were nearly 11-fold greater than hyperthermia deaths. Estimated extreme heat event-associated excess deaths may be a useful indicator of the impact of extreme heat events, but single-year estimates are currently too imprecise to identify short-term changes in risk. PMID:27081885

  3. Changes of temperature and precipitation extremes in China: past and future

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wen, Xin; Fang, Guohua; Qi, Heshuai; Zhou, Lei; Gao, Yuqin

    2016-10-01

    Historical temperature and precipitation extremes and their potential future changes are quantified and evaluated throughout the landmass of China. A statistical model of climate extremes based on generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution is applied to both historical climate data and bias correction and spatial disaggregation (BCSD) downscaled Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) projections. The results indicate relatively moderate historical warm extreme conditions in China with regional means of maximum temperature 28.9, 29.4, and 29.8 °C for 10-, 20-, and 50-year return periods, respectively, whereas the corresponding regional means of minimum temperature are -20.1, -20.8, and -21.5 °C, manifesting a downward trend northwardly with relative larger regional variations in cold extremes. The historical precipitation extremes also decline gradually from south-southeast toward northwest with significant regional differences. As for the future, the warm extremes are expected to aggravate by roughly 1.66-4.92 °C projected by CMIP5, indicating larger increasing rate and spatial differences compared to cold extremes. The extreme precipitation is projected to increase 7.9-13.4 %, the dry regions would see a larger increasing rate compared to wet regions. The increasing radiative forcing concentration would trigger upward variations in both temperature and precipitation extreme magnitudes. Also, the warm extreme changes are more sensitive to the radiative forcing concentration than the cold extremes. The CMIP5 projections basically maintain a favorable inter-model consistency in temperature and rainfall extreme simulation for the future, but the inter-model difference of warm extremes is larger than cold extremes.

  4. Heat-related deaths after an extreme heat event--four states, 2012, and United States, 1999-2009.

    PubMed

    2013-06-01

    On June 29, 2012, a rapidly moving line of intense thunderstorms with high winds swept across the midwestern and eastern United States, causing widespread damage and power outages. Afterward, the area experienced extreme heat, with maximum temperatures exceeding 100°F (37.8°C). This report describes 32 heat-related deaths in Maryland, Ohio, Virginia, and West Virginia that occurred during the 2 weeks following the storms and power outages. Median age of the decedents was 65 years, and most of the excessive heat exposures occurred within homes. During 1999-2009, an annual average of 658 heat-related deaths occurred in the United States. Heat-related deaths are preventable, and heat response plans should be in place before an extreme heat event (EHE). Interventions should focus on identifying and limiting heat exposure among vulnerable populations. PMID:23739336

  5. Woven Thermal Protection System Based Heat-shield for Extreme Entry Environments Technology (HEEET)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chinnapongse, Ronald; Ellerbe, Donald; Stackpoole, Maragaret; Venkatapathy, Ethiraj; Beerman, Adam; Feldman, Jay; Peterson Keith; Prabhu, Dinesh; Dillman, Robert; Munk, Michelle

    2013-01-01

    NASA's future robotic missions utilizing an entry system into Venus and the outer planets, namely, Saturn, Uranus, Neptune, result in extremely severe entry conditions that exceed the capabilities of state of the art low to mid density ablators such as PICA or Avcoat. Therefore mission planners typically assume the use of a fully dense carbon phenolic heat shield similar to what was flown on Pioneer Venus and Galileo. Carbon phenolic (CP) is a robust TPS material however its high density and relatively high thermal conductivity constrain mission planners to steep entries, with high heat fluxes and pressures and short entry durations, in order for CP to be feasible from a mass perspective. The high entry conditions pose challenges for certification in existing ground based test facilities and the longer-­-term sustainability of CP will continue to pose challenges. In 2012 the Game Changing Development Program (GCDP) in NASA's Space Technology Mission Directorate funded NASA ARC to investigate the feasibility of a Woven Thermal Protection System (WTPS) to meet the needs of NASA's most challenging entry missions. This project was highly successful demonstrating that a Woven TPS solution compares favorably to CP in performance in simulated reentry environments and provides the opportunity to manufacture graded materials that should result in overall reduced mass solutions and enable a much broader set of missions than does CP. Building off the success of the WTPS project GCDP has funded a follow on project to further mature and scale up the WTPS concept for insertion into future NASA robotic missions. The matured WTPS will address the CP concerns associated with ground based test limitations and sustainability. This presentation will briefly discuss results from the WTPS Project and the plans for WTPS maturation into a heat-­-shield for extreme entry environment.

  6. Woven Thermal Protection System Based Heat-shield for Extreme Entry Environments Technology (HEEET)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ellerby, Donald; Venkatapathy, Ethiraj; Stackpoole, Margaret; Chinnapongse, Ronald; Munk, Michelle; Dillman, Robert; Feldman, Jay; Prabhu, Dinesh; Beerman, Adam

    2013-01-01

    NASA's future robotic missions utilizing an entry system into Venus and the outer planets, namely, Saturn, Uranus, Neptune, result in extremely high entry conditions that exceed the capabilities of state of the art low to mid density ablators such as PICA or Avcoat. Therefore mission planners typically assume the use of a fully dense carbon phenolic heat shield similar to what was flown on Pioneer Venus and Galileo. Carbon phenolic is a robust TPS material however its high density and relatively high thermal conductivity constrain mission planners to steep entries, with high heat fluxes and pressures and short entry durations, in order for CP to be feasible from a mass perspective. The high entry conditions pose challenges for certification in existing ground based test facilities and the longer-term sustainability of CP will continue to pose challenges. In 2012 the Game Changing Development Program (GCDP) in NASA's Space Technology Mission Directorate funded NASA ARC to investigate the feasibility of a Woven Thermal Protection System (WTPS) to meet the needs of NASA's most challenging entry missions. This project was highly successful demonstrating that a Woven TPS solution compares favorably to CP in performance in simulated reentry environments and provides the opportunity to manufacture graded materials that should result in overall reduced mass solutions and enable a much broader set of missions than does CP. Building off the success of the WTPS project GCDP has funded a follow on project to further mature and scale up the WTPS concept for insertion into future NASA robotic missions. The matured WTPS will address the CP concerns associated with ground based test limitations and sustainability. This presentation will briefly discuss results from the WTPS Project and the plans for WTPS maturation into a heat-shield for extreme entry environment.

  7. Future Trends in Extreme Temperatures over the Western U.S.: The Influence of Terrain and Coastlines

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brewer, M.

    2015-12-01

    A number of studies have suggested that heat waves will increase in frequency, intensity, and duration under anthropogenic global warming. However, these trends are less understood in regions of complex terrain or in coastal regions where temperature gradients are relatively larger and mesoscale features are important. Thus it is important to understand the regional impacts of terrain and land/water contrasts on heat extremes in a warming world, and identify changes in the conditions that drive such extremes. The northwest U.S. is a region with such surface complexity, where regional heat extremes arise from synoptic/mesoscale interactions between the large-scale flow and local topography This talk will analyze changes to the synoptic and mesoscale conditions associated with heat extremes over the northwest U.S. by utilizing CMIP5 global climate model simulations, and dynamically downscaled regional climate models. An analysis of changes in mid- to low-level tropospheric temperature, offshore/onshore flow, soil moisture, precipitation, and cloud fraction are described, as well as how these changes interact with regional terrain and land/water contrasts to alter the temperature distributions over the region. CMIP5 models suggest that low-level zonal wind distributions over the northwest U.S. become narrower, leading to fewer days with strong offshore flow. Soil moisture is projected to decline over the region due to reductions in clouds and precipitation, as well as general warming. Historical and future regional temperature distributions will be described, and it will be shown that even though climate models predict increases in heat extremes for western Oregon and Washington, these increases are far fewer compared to inland areas. The variance over most inland locations increases, with the exception of the northwest U.S., where variance doesn't change. The importance of regional terrain and land/water contrasts in explaining these changes will be described.

  8. Extreme Adaptive Optics Testbed: Results and Future Work

    SciTech Connect

    Evans, J W; Sommargren, G; Poyneer, L; Macintosh, B; Severson, S; Dillon, D; Sheinis, A; Palmer, D; Kasdin, J; Olivier, S

    2004-07-15

    'Extreme' adaptive optics systems are optimized for ultra-high-contrast applications, such as ground-based extrasolar planet detection. The Extreme Adaptive Optics Testbed at UC Santa Cruz is being used to investigate and develop technologies for high-contrast imaging, especially wavefront control. A simple optical design allows us to minimize wavefront error and maximize the experimentally achievable contrast before progressing to a more complex set-up. A phase shifting diffraction interferometer is used to measure wavefront errors with sub-nm precision and accuracy. We have demonstrated RMS wavefront errors of <1.3 nm and a contrast of >10{sup -7} over a substantial region using a shaped pupil. Current work includes the installation and characterization of a 1024-actuator Micro-Electro-Mechanical- Systems (MEMS) deformable mirror, manufactured by Boston Micro-Machines, which will be used for wavefront control. In our initial experiments we can flatten the deformable mirror to 1.8-nm RMS wavefront error within a control radius of 5-13 cycles per aperture. Ultimately this testbed will be used to test all aspects of the system architecture for an extrasolar planet-finding AO system.

  9. The assessment of future extremes of air temperature to design EPR type power plants

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Parey, S.; Hoang, T. T. H.; Dacunha-Castelle, D.

    2010-09-01

    EDF projects the construction of new EPR type nuclear power plants in Europe. These installations are likely to run until the second half of the century, and thus, it is necessary to think their dimensioning in taking current knowledge of climate change impact into account. This paper will present the study dedicated to the estimation of future extremes of air temperature by using the statistical extreme value theory. The adopted methodology consists firstly in comparing current climate temperature extremes between local observations and models at the nearest grid point. Then, if the extremes of both series are comparable, future extremes are derived from the modelled series for a future period. In parallel, the link between the evolution of the mean, variance and extremes is studied in the observation series. If a strong link is identified, future extremes are derived from the stationary extremes of the centred and normalised series and the changes in mean and variance given by climate models for the desired future period. The approach will be illustrated with an example of such an evaluation for an EPR project in the United Kingdom.

  10. Selected human physiological responses during extreme heat: the Badwater Ultramarathon.

    PubMed

    Brown, Jacqueline S; Connolly, Declan A

    2015-06-01

    The purpose of this article was to examine various physiological responses during an ultramarathon held in extreme heat. Our investigation was conducted at The Badwater Ultramarathon, a nonstop 217-km run across Death Valley, CA, USA. This study recruited 4 male athletes, average age of 43 (±SD) (±7.35), (range) 39-54 years. All 4 subjects successfully completed the race with a mean finish time of 36:20:23 hours (±SD) (±3:08:38) (range) 34:05:25-40:51:46 hours, and a mean running speed of 6.03 km·h(-1) (±SD) (±0.05), (range) 5.3-6.4 km·h(-1). The anthropometric variables measured were (mean, ±SD) mass 79.33 kg (±6.43), height 1.80 m (±0.09), body surface area 1.93 m2 (±0.16), body mass index 24.38 kg·m(-2) (±1.25), fat mass 13.88% (±2.29), and body water 62.08% (±1.56). Selected physiological variables measured were core body temperature, skin temperature, heart rate, breathing rate, and blood pressure. Rate of perceived intensity, rate of thermal sensation, and environmental factors were also monitored. Our study found (mean and ±SD) core body temperature 37.49° C (±0.88); skin temperature 31.13° C (±3.06); heart rate 106.79 b·min(-1) (±5.11); breathing rate 36.55 b·min(-1) (±0.60); blood pressure 128/86 mm Hg (±9.24/4.62); rate of perceived intensity 5.49 (±1.26); rate of thermal sensation 4.69 (±0.37); daytime high temperature of 46.6° C, and a mean temperature of 28.35° C. Our fastest finisher demonstrated a lower overall core body temperature (36.91° C) when compared with the group mean (37.49° C). In contrast to previous findings, our data show that the fastest finisher demonstrates a lower overall core body temperature. We conclude that it may be possible that a time threshold exists whereby success in longer duration events requires an ability to maintain a lower core body temperature vs. tolerating a higher core body temperature. PMID:25463692

  11. A non-equilibrium model for soil heating and moisture transport during extreme surface heating

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Massman, William

    2016-04-01

    The increasing use of prescribed fire by land managers and increasing likelihood of wildfires due to climate change requires an improved modeling capability of extreme heating of soils during fires. This study describes a new model of soil evaporation and transport of heat, soil moisture, and water vapor, for use during fires. The model is based on conservation equations of energy and mass and its performance is evaluated against dynamic soil temperature and moisture observations obtained during laboratory experiments on soil samples exposed to surface heat fluxes ranging between 10,000 and 50,000 Wm2. In general, the model simulates the observed temperature dynamics quite well, but is less precise (but still good) at capturing the moisture dynamics. The model emulates the observed increase in soil moisture ahead of the drying front and the hiatus in the soil temperature rise during the strongly evaporative stage of drying. It also captures the observed rapid evaporation of soil moisture that occurs at relatively low temperatures (50-90 C), and can provide quite accurate predictions of the total amount of soil moisture evaporated during the laboratory experiments. Overall, this new model provides a much more physically realistic simulation over all previous models developed for the same purpose.

  12. Attributing Human Mortality During Extreme Heat Waves to Anthropogenic Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mitchell, D.; Heaviside, C.; Vardoulakis, S.; Huntingford, C.; Masato, G.; Guillod, B. P.; Frumhoff, P. C.; Bowery, A.; Allen, M. R.

    2015-12-01

    Climate change is the biggest global health threat of the 21st century (Costello et al, 2009; Watts et al, 2015). Perhaps one of the clearest examples of this is the summer heat wave of 2003, which saw up to seventy thousand excess deaths across Europe (Robine et al, 2007). The extreme temperatures are now thought to be significantly enhanced due to anthropogenic climate change (Stott et al, 2004; Christidis et al, 2015). Here, we consider not only the Europe-wide temperature response of the heat wave, but the localised response using a high-resolution regional model simulating 2003 climate conditions thousands of times. For the first time, by employing end-to-end attribution, we attribute changes in mortality to the increased radiative forcing from climate change, with a specific focus on London and Paris. We show that in both cities, a sizable proportion of the excess mortality can be attributed to human emissions. With European heat waves projected to increase into the future, these results provide a worrying reality for what may lie ahead. Christidis, Nikolaos, Gareth S. Jones, and Peter A. Stott. "Dramatically increasing chance of extremely hot summers since the 2003 European heatwave." Nature Climate Change (2014). Costello, Anthony, et al. "Managing the health effects of climate change: lancet and University College London Institute for Global Health Commission." The Lancet 373.9676 (2009): 1693-1733. Stott, Peter A., Dáithí A. Stone, and Myles R. Allen. "Human contribution to the European heatwave of 2003." Nature 432.7017 (2004): 610-614 Watts, N., et al. "Health and climate change: policy responses to protect public health." Lancet. 2015.

  13. Warm-season diurnal circulations and heat extremes over the northwest U.S

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brewer, Matthew C.

    Summer synoptic circulations over the northwest U.S., and their interactions with regional terrain, land/water contrasts, and surface heating, give rise to a variety of fascinating meteorological phenomena, many of which have yet to be explored. Furthermore, it is largely unknown how projected future warming associated with increased greenhouse gases will modify these important features. The work herein seeks to ameliorate this with a comprehensive examination of two important aspects of northwest U.S. summer weather and climate: diurnal circulations and changes to the conditions associated with extreme temperatures under anthropogenic global warming. To simulate regional diurnal circulations, GFS model output was obtained for July and August 2009-2011. These data were categorized into hour of the day, composited, and the resulting files were used to initialize and provide boundary conditions to a WRF (version 3.5) model run. It was shown that, when compared to observations, this WRF run sufficiently simulates average diurnal variability. Using this simulation, the diurnal circulations of the region were described, including several important wind features within the Strait of Juan de Fuca, the Snoqualmie Pass, and the Columbia River Gorge. Also, regional nocturnal low-level wind maxima are described, including one over the northern Willamette valley and another over the high plateau of eastern Oregon. Recent work by the authors has elucidated the physical mechanisms that drive heat extremes over the northwest U.S., including the necessity of a ridge aloft, with associated subsidence and advection warming. Also, easterly flow is crucial for keeping the marine air at bay, and producing downslope flow and adiabatic warming on the western slopes of regional north-south terrain barriers. Given the rising temperatures projected under anthropogenic global warming, how are these conditions, and associated low-level temperature distributions, projected to change? As a

  14. Self-contained heat rejection module for future spacecraft

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fleming, M. L.; Williams, J. L.; Baskett, J. D.; Leach, J. W.

    1975-01-01

    This paper discusses development of a Self-Contained Heat Rejection Module (SHRM) which can be used on a wide variety of future spacecraft launched by the space shuttle orbiter. The SHRM contains radiators which are deployed by a scissor-mechanism and the flow equipment including pumps, accumulator, by-pass valves, and controllers necessary to reject heat from those radiators. Heat transfer between SHRM and the parent vehicle is effected by a contact heat exchanger. This device provides heat transfer between two separate flow loops through a mechanical connection. This approach reduces the time required to attach the SHRM to the payload, and increases the reliability of the SHRM flow loop since breaking into the fluid system in the field is not required. The SHRM concept also includes a refrigeration system to increase heat rejection capacity in adverse environments, or to provide for a lower return temperature, down to -23 C.

  15. Future trends in heating technology of deep-seated tumors.

    PubMed

    Turner, P F; Schaefermeyer, T; Saxton, T

    1988-01-01

    Hyperthermia techniques and equipment have developed into a level of sophistication requiring special training and operator skills. Recent advances electromagnetic and ultrasound heating techniques are multi-applicator arrays, both external and invasive. These arrays are most effective when individual channel power control can be utilized to improve the heating pattern control during treatment. A preview of future capabilities shows that more selective tumor heating is possible with the advanced equipment. The role of computer pretreatment planning is a valuable aid in operator training as well as optimization of parameters. The current development of regional heating is in the deep focal heating by external focused arrays. The SIGMA 60 cylindrical dipole array deep steerable focal zone is described and test data presented showing the selective focusing obtained. A small invasive targeting E-field sensor is used to optimize phase and amplitude of the array to improve the selective heating in the target zone. These patented techniques and devices are expected to reduce systemic toxicity and increase tumor temperatures with lower power input. Future equipment development is predicted to include many types of hyperthermia devices and techniques. This trend suggests that systems must be designed to simplify the operator's tasks and improve the heating pattern controls. The computer power and control will become much more important in these future systems.

  16. Formation of extreme surface turbulent heat fluxes from the ocean to the atmosphere in the North Atlantic

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tilinina, N. D.; Gulev, S. K.; Gavrikov, A. V.

    2016-01-01

    The role of extreme surface turbulent fluxes in total oceanic heat loss in the North Atlantic is studied. The atmospheric circulation patterns enhancing ocean-atmosphere heat flux in regions with significant contributions of the extreme heat fluxes (up to 60% of the net heat loss) are analyzed. It is shown that extreme heat fluxes in the Gulf Stream and the Greenland and Labrador Seas occur in zones with maximal air pressure gradients, i.e., in cyclone-anticyclone interaction zones.

  17. Intra-seasonal drivers of extreme heat over Australia in observations and POAMA-2

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marshall, A. G.; Hudson, D.; Wheeler, M. C.; Alves, O.; Hendon, H. H.; Pook, M. J.; Risbey, J. S.

    2014-10-01

    We assess the occurrence and probability of extreme heat over Australia in association with the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), persistent anticyclones over the Tasman Sea, and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), which have previously been shown to be key drivers of intra-seasonal variations of Australian climate. In this study, extreme heat events are defined as occurring when weekly-mean maximum temperature anomalies exceed the 90th percentile. The observed probability of exceedance is reduced during the positive phase of the SAM and enhanced during the negative phase of the SAM over most of Australia. Persistent anticyclones over the Tasman Sea are described in terms of (1) split-flow blocking at 160°E and (2) high pressure systems located in the vicinity of the subtropical ridge (STRHs), about 10° north of the split-flow blocking region, for which we devise a simple index. Split-flow blocks and STRHs have contrasting impacts on the occurrence of extreme heat over Australia, with STRHs showing enhanced probability of upper decile heat events over southern Australia in all seasons. The observed probability of an upper decile heat event varies according to MJO phase and time of year, with the greatest impact of the MJO on extreme heat occurring over southern Australia (including the Mallee agricultural region) in spring during phases 2-3. We show that this modulation of the probability of extreme heat by the SAM, persistent anticyclones over the Tasman Sea, and the MJO is well simulated in the Bureau of Meteorology dynamical intra-seasonal/seasonal forecast model POAMA-2 at lead times of 2-3 weeks. We further show that predictability of heat extremes increases in association with the negative SAM phase, STRH and MJO, thus providing a basis for skilful intra-seasonal prediction of heat extremes.

  18. Emergence of heat extremes attributable to anthropogenic influences

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    King, Andrew D.; Black, Mitchell T.; Min, Seung-Ki; Fischer, Erich M.; Mitchell, Daniel M.; Harrington, Luke J.; Perkins-Kirkpatrick, Sarah E.

    2016-04-01

    Climate scientists have demonstrated that a substantial fraction of the probability of numerous recent extreme events may be attributed to human-induced climate change. However, it is likely that for temperature extremes occurring over previous decades a fraction of their probability was attributable to anthropogenic influences. We identify the first record-breaking warm summers and years for which a discernible contribution can be attributed to human influence. We find a significant human contribution to the probability of record-breaking global temperature events as early as the 1930s. Since then, all the last 16 record-breaking hot years globally had an anthropogenic contribution to their probability of occurrence. Aerosol-induced cooling delays the timing of a significant human contribution to record-breaking events in some regions. Without human-induced climate change recent hot summers and years would be very unlikely to have occurred.

  19. A Review of Recent Advances in Research on Extreme Heat Events

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Horton, Radley M.; Mankin, Justin S.; Lesk, Corey; Coffel, Ethan; Raymond, Colin

    2016-01-01

    Reviewing recent literature, we report that changes in extreme heat event characteristics such as magnitude, frequency, and duration are highly sensitive to changes in mean global-scale warming. Numerous studies have detected significant changes in the observed occurrence of extreme heat events, irrespective of how such events are defined. Further, a number of these studies have attributed present-day changes in the risk of individual heat events and the documented global-scale increase in such events to anthropogenic-driven warming. Advances in process-based studies of heat events have focused on the proximate land-atmosphere interactions through soil moisture anomalies, and changes in occurrence of the underlying atmospheric circulation associated with heat events in the mid-latitudes. While evidence for a number of hypotheses remains limited, climate change nevertheless points to tail risks of possible changes in heat extremes that could exceed estimates generated from model outputs of mean temperature. We also explore risks associated with compound extreme events and nonlinear impacts associated with extreme heat.

  20. Heat-related mortality in Cyprus for current and future climate scenarios.

    PubMed

    Heaviside, Clare; Tsangari, Haritini; Paschalidou, Anastasia; Vardoulakis, Sotiris; Kassomenos, Pavlos; Georgiou, Kyriakos E; Yamasaki, Edna N

    2016-11-01

    Extreme temperatures have long been associated with adverse health impacts, ranging from minor illness, to increased hospitalizations and mortality. Heat-related mortality during summer months is likely to become an increasing public health problem in future due to the effects of climate change. We performed a health impact assessment for heat-related mortality for the warm months of April-September for the years 2004 to 2009 inclusive, for the city of Nicosia and for Cyprus as a whole, based on separately derived exposure-response functions. We further estimated the potential future heat-related mortality by including climate projections for southern Europe, which suggest changes in temperature of between 1°C and 5°C over the next century. There were 32 heat-related deaths per year in Cyprus over the study period. When adding the projected increase in temperature due to climate change, there was a substantial increase in mortality: for a 1°C increase in temperature, heat related mortality in Cyprus was estimated to double to 64 per year, and for a 5°C increase, heat-related mortality was expected to be 8 times the baseline rate for the warm season (281 compared with 32). This analysis highlights the importance of preparing for potential health impacts due to heat in Cyprus, particularly under a changing climate. PMID:27376918

  1. Heat-related mortality in Cyprus for current and future climate scenarios.

    PubMed

    Heaviside, Clare; Tsangari, Haritini; Paschalidou, Anastasia; Vardoulakis, Sotiris; Kassomenos, Pavlos; Georgiou, Kyriakos E; Yamasaki, Edna N

    2016-11-01

    Extreme temperatures have long been associated with adverse health impacts, ranging from minor illness, to increased hospitalizations and mortality. Heat-related mortality during summer months is likely to become an increasing public health problem in future due to the effects of climate change. We performed a health impact assessment for heat-related mortality for the warm months of April-September for the years 2004 to 2009 inclusive, for the city of Nicosia and for Cyprus as a whole, based on separately derived exposure-response functions. We further estimated the potential future heat-related mortality by including climate projections for southern Europe, which suggest changes in temperature of between 1°C and 5°C over the next century. There were 32 heat-related deaths per year in Cyprus over the study period. When adding the projected increase in temperature due to climate change, there was a substantial increase in mortality: for a 1°C increase in temperature, heat related mortality in Cyprus was estimated to double to 64 per year, and for a 5°C increase, heat-related mortality was expected to be 8 times the baseline rate for the warm season (281 compared with 32). This analysis highlights the importance of preparing for potential health impacts due to heat in Cyprus, particularly under a changing climate.

  2. Recent Advances in Regional Climate System Modeling and ClimateChange Analyses of Extreme Heat

    SciTech Connect

    Miller, Norman L.

    2004-09-24

    During the period May 2003 to May 2004, there were two CEC/PIER funded primary research activities by the Atmosphere and Ocean Sciences Group/Earth Science Division at LBNL. These activities are the implementation and testing of the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Land Model (CLM) into MM5, and the analysis of extreme heat days under a new set of climate simulations. The new version of MM5,MM5-CLM, has been tested for a 90 day snowmelt period in the northwestern U.S. Results show that this new code upgrade, as compared to the MM5-NOAH, has improved snowmelt, temperature, and precipitation when compared to observations. These are due in part to a subgrid scheme,advanced snow processes, and advanced vegetation. The climate change analysis is the upper and lower IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios, representing fossil fuel intensive and energy conserving future emission scenarios, and medium and low sensitivity Global Climate Models. Results indicate that California cities will see increases in the number of heat wave and temperature threshold days from two to six times.These results may be viewed as potential outcomes based on today's decisions on emissions.

  3. Evolution of extreme temperatures over western Iberia; reporting on recent changes and future scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ramos, Alexandre M.; Trigo, Ricardo M.; Santo, Fátima E.

    2010-05-01

    We report on changes in surface air temperature extremes over mainland Portugal during the period 1941-2006 using daily maximum and minimum temperatures (Tmax and Tmin) from 23 of the most reliable Portuguese station records. Here we have used indices corresponding to the number of days above the 90th and below the 10th percentile for both Tmax and Tmin. This allowed us, to compute trends for the entire period of data (1941-2006) as well as for two consecutive 31-year periods: 1945-1975 (relative cooling period) and 1976-2006 (relative warming period), based on results found by Karl et al, 2000. The most striking results are related with the last period (1976-2006) that reveal a significant increase in extreme heat events for both spring and summer seasons, and a decrease in extreme cold events in winter. In the second part of this work we present an analysis of climate change over Portugal simulated by the Hadley Centre regional climate model (HadRM3) with data obtained from Project PRUDENCE. The ability of the model to reproduce the present climate (1961-1990) is tested and evaluated. For this purpose, values of Tmax and Tmin of all 23 climatological weather stations (1961-1990 climate normals) were aggregated into a new time series. Additionally we have computed the seasonal percentiles in 1% steps (ranging from 1% to 99%). For comparison purposes we have aggregated HadRM3 values into a new time series averaging grid points located closest to the 23 climatological weather stations considered, and computed the corresponding seasonal percentiles in 1% steps. This procedure allowed an objective comparison between the two probability distributions (climatological and simulated by the model), using standard q-q plots. Finally we have evaluated changes of probability distributions for future climate projections under the IPCC emission scenarios (B2 and A2), for the period between 2071-2100 when compared to the present climate (1961-1990) simulated by the model. The

  4. Urban effects on extreme heat in a mid-sized North American city

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schatz, J.; Kucharik, C. J.

    2013-12-01

    As climate change drives global temperatures higher, heat waves are projected to increase in frequency, intensity, and duration, particularly in cities where the urban heat island effect can further raise local temperatures. Cities contain 50% of the global population and 80% of the North American population, and these percentages are projected to reach 70% globally and 87% in North America by 2030. This creates a need to understand the nature of heat events not just globally but also within cities where local climate variation can be substantial. That local variation could prove highly consequential for heat adaptation in cities, making it important to understand the dynamics of extreme heat within urban landscapes. Our study addresses this need by characterizing 400m-resolution variation in air temperature and heat index during a historically hot year in Madison, Wisconsin. Madison is a mid-sized temperate city with a metropolitan area population of 568,593. It is surrounded by several large lakes and a complex rural landscape of agriculture, forests, wetlands, and grasslands. In 2012, Madison experienced its hottest year and third hottest summer on record, with the Madison airport reporting 39 days exceeding 90°F compared to an average of 9 days. In March 2012, we installed 135 Onset HOBO ProV2 T/RH sensors across the Madison area to record air temperature and relative humidity at 15 minute intervals. The data from this network provides a unique opportunity to study small-scale spatial variation in the magnitude and duration of hot conditions that are projected to become more common in the future. Our sensors recorded substantial variation in the magnitude and duration of high temperatures and heat indices during the summer of 2012. For temperature, the densest parts of the city experienced >200 hours ≥90°F compared to <100 hours in many rural areas. Temperatures ≥100°F occurred up to 22 hours in some parts of the city versus 0 hours in much of the rural

  5. The effects of extreme heat on human mortality and morbidity in Australia: implications for public health.

    PubMed

    Bi, Peng; Williams, Susan; Loughnan, Margaret; Lloyd, Glenis; Hansen, Alana; Kjellstrom, Tord; Dear, Keith; Saniotis, Arthur

    2011-03-01

    Most regions of Australia are exposed to hot summers and regular extreme heat events; and numerous studies have associated high ambient temperatures with adverse health outcomes in Australian cities. Extreme environmental heat can trigger the onset of acute conditions, including heat stroke and dehydration, as well as exacerbate a range of underlying illnesses. Consequently, in the absence of adaptation, the associated mortality and morbidity are expected to increase in a warming climate, particularly within the vulnerable populations of the elderly, children, those with chronic diseases, and people engaged in physical labour in noncooled environments. There is a need for further research to address the evidence needs of public health agencies in Australia. Building resilience to extreme heat events, especially for the most vulnerable groups, is a priority. Public health professionals and executives need to be aware of the very real and urgent need to act now.

  6. Actual and future trends of extreme values of temperature for the NW Iberian Peninsula

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Taboada, J.; Brands, S.; Lorenzo, N.

    2009-09-01

    It is now very well established that yearly averaged temperatures are increasing due to anthropogenic climate change. In the area of Galicia (NW Spain) this trend has also been determined. The main objective of this work is to assess actual and future trends of different extreme indices of temperature, which are of curcial importance for many impact studies. Station data for the study was provided by the CLIMA database of the regional government of Galicia (NW Spain). As direct GCM-output significantly underestimates the variance of daily surface temperature variables in NW Spain, these variables are obtained by applying a statistical downscaling technique (analog method), using 850hPa temperature and mean sea level pressure as combined predictors. The predictor fields have been extracted from three GCMs participating in the IPCC AR4 under A1, A1B and A2 scenarios. The definitions of the extreme indices have been taken from the joint CCl/CLIVAR/JCOMM Expert Team (ET) on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) This group has defined a set of standard extreme values to simplify intercomparisons of data from different regions of the world. For the temperatures in the period 1960-2006, results show a significant increase of the number of days with maximum temperatures above the 90th percentile. Furthermore, a significant decrease of the days with maximum temperatures below the 10th percentile has been found. The tendencies of minimum temperatures are reverse: less nights with minimum temperatures below 10th percentile, and more with minimum temperatures above 90th percentile. Those tendencies can be observed all over the year, but are more pronounced in summer. We have also calculated the relationship between the above mentioned extreme values and different teleconnection patterns appearing in the North Atlantic area. Results show that local tendencies are associated with trends of EA (Eastern Atlantic) and SCA (Scandinavian) patterns. NAO (North Atlantic

  7. Climate Model Simulation of Present and Future Extreme Events in Latin America and the Caribbean: What Spatial Resolution is Required?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rowe, C. M.; Oglesby, R. J.; Mawalagedara, R.; Mohammad Abadi Kamarei, A.

    2015-12-01

    Latin America and the Caribbean are at risk of extreme climate events, including flooding rains, damaging winds, drought, heat waves, and in high elevation mountainous regions, excessive snowfalls. The causes of these events are numerous - flooding rains and damaging winds are often associated with tropical cyclones, but also can occur, either separately or in tandem, due to smaller, more localized storms. Similarly, heat waves and droughts can be large scale or localized, and frequently occur together (as excessive drying can lead to enhanced heating, while enhanced heating in turn promotes additional drying). Even in the tropics, extreme snow and ice events can have severe consequences due to avalanches, and also impact water resources. Understanding and modeling the climate controls behind these extreme events requires consideration of a range of time and space scales. A common strategy is to use a global climate model (GCM) to simulate the large-scale (~100km) daily atmospheric controls on extreme events. A limited area, high resolution regional climate model (RCM) is then employed to dynamically downscale the results, so as to better incorporate the influence of topography and, secondarily, the nature of the land cover. But what resolution is required to provide the necessary results, i.e., minimize biases due to improper resolution? In conjunction with our partners from participating Latin American and Caribbean nations, we have made an extensive series of simulations, both region-wide and for individual countries, using the WRF regional climate model to downscale output from a variety of GCMs, as well as Reanalyses (as a proxy for observations). The simulations driven by the Reanalyses are used for robust model verification against actual weather station observations. The simulations driven by GCMs are designed to provide projections of future climate, including importantly how the nature and number of extreme events may change through coming decades. Our

  8. Impact of Extreme Heat Events on Emergency Department Visits in North Carolina (2007-2011).

    PubMed

    Fuhrmann, Christopher M; Sugg, Margaret M; Konrad, Charles E; Waller, Anna

    2016-02-01

    Extreme heat is the leading cause of weather-related mortality in the U.S. Extreme heat also affects human health through heat stress and can exacerbate underlying medical conditions that lead to increased morbidity and mortality. In this study, data on emergency department (ED) visits for heat-related illness (HRI) and other selected diseases were analyzed during three heat events across North Carolina from 2007 to 2011. These heat events were identified based on the issuance and verification of heat products from local National Weather Service forecast offices (i.e. Heat Advisory, Heat Watch, and Excessive Heat Warning). The observed number of ED visits during these events were compared to the expected number of ED visits during several control periods to determine excess morbidity resulting from extreme heat. All recorded diagnoses were analyzed for each ED visit, thereby providing insight into the specific pathophysiological mechanisms and underlying health conditions associated with exposure to extreme heat. The most common form of HRI was heat exhaustion, while the percentage of visits with heat stroke was relatively low (<10%). The elderly (>65 years of age) were at greatest risk for HRI during the early summer heat event (8.9 visits per 100,000), while young and middle age adults (18-44 years of age) were at greatest risk during the mid-summer event (6.3 visits per 100,000). Many of these visits were likely due to work-related exposure. The most vulnerable demographic during the late summer heat event was adolescents (15-17 years of age), which may relate to the timing of organized sports. This demographic also exhibited the highest visit rate for HRI among all three heat events (10.5 visits per 100,000). Significant increases (p < 0.05) in visits with cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases were noted during the three heat events (3-8%). The greatest increases were found in visits with hypotension during the late summer event (23%) and sequelae during

  9. Extreme Dust Heating in Optically Star-Forming Galaxies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    O'Connor, Jessica

    A complete census of supermassive black holes in the local universe is important, especially in low mass (log(stellar mass/solar masses) < 10) galaxies. It provides observational constraints on the black hole occupation fractions of low mass galaxies and broadens our understanding of the co-evolution of active galactic nuclei (AGN) and their host galaxies. Infrared selection criteria including [3.4]-[4.6] micron (W1-W2) color provides a useful method for detecting obscured AGN which may be missed in X-ray or optical surveys. Recent work has found that not only are there more AGN in low mass galaxies than would be predicted using optical selection criteria, but that the fraction of high W1-W2 (>0.5) galaxies is actually highest in the lowest mass galaxies. This could be evidence of a significant population of obscured AGN in low mass galaxies, but it is still unclear whether the dust heating that causes high W1-W2 color can only be caused by AGN or if stars alone are sufficient. This dissertation is a study of the demographics of high W1-W2 galaxies in the local universe and the AGN or star-forming nature of their nuclear activity. First, the number density of z0.3, 0.5 and 0.8 are calculated as a function of r-band luminosity and stellar mass. Not only does the number density of high W1-W2 galaxies rise toward the lowest host mass regime in stark contrast to the mass distribution of optical AGN, but the red WISE population displays a bimodality in its luminosity and stellar mass functions. They are a combination of a high mass optical AGN and a low mass optically star-forming component. One optically normal, IR-red (W1-W2>1) galaxy (SDSS J1224+5555) was included in a pilot study of bulgeless, high W1-W2 galaxies which found that its X-ray flux is much lower than would be expected if it hosted an AGN. Decomposing its photometry with multiwavelength spectral energy distribution (SED) modeling revealed that it is impossible to reproduce the galaxy's mid

  10. Multimodel ensemble projections of future climate extreme changes in the Haihe River Basin, China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Weiguang; Shao, Quanxi; Yang, Tao; Yu, Zhongbo; Xing, Wanqiu; Zhao, Cuiping

    2014-11-01

    Exploring the characteristic of the extreme climatic events, especially future projection is considerably important in assessing the impacts of climatic change on hydrology and water resources system. We investigate the future patterns of climate extremes (2001-2099) in the Haihe River Basin (HRB) derived from Coupled General Circulation Model (CGCM) multimodel ensemble projections using the Bayesian Model Average (BMA) approach, under a range of emission scenarios. The extremes are depicted by three extreme temperature indices (i.e., frost days (FD), growing season length (GSL), and T min >90th percentile (TN90)) and five extreme precipitation indices (i.e., consecutive dry days (CDD), precipitation ≥10 mm (R10), maximum 5-day precipitation total (R5D), precipitation >95th percentile (R95T), and simple daily intensity index (SDII)). The results indicate frost days display negative trend over the HRB in the 21st century, particularly in the southern basin. Moreover, a greater season length and more frequent warm nights are also projected in the basin. The decreasing CDD, together with the increasing R10, R5D, R95T, and SDII in the 21st century indicate that the extreme precipitation events will increase in their intensity and frequency in the basin. Meanwhile, the changes of all eight extremes climate indices under A2 and A1B scenarios are more pronounced than in B1. The results will be of practical significance in mitigation of the detrimental effects of variations of climatic extremes and improve the regional strategy for water resource and eco-environment management, particularly for the HRB characterized by the severe water shortages and fragile ecological environment.

  11. Extremely heat tolerant photosymbiosis in a shallow marine benthic foraminifera

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schmidt, Christiane; Danna, Titelboim; Janett, Brandt; Raphael, Morard; Barak, Herut; Sigal, Abramovich; Ahuva, Almogi-Labin; Michal, Kucera

    2016-04-01

    Thermal stress leads to the loss of algal symbionts (bleaching) in many shallow marine calcifiers including foraminifera. The bleaching threshold often occurs at water temperatures, which are likely to be exceeded in the near future due to global warming. Preadaptation represents one mechanism allowing photosymbiotic organisms to persist under warmer conditions, providing the tolerance can be carried to new habitats. Here we provide evidence for the existence of such adaptation in the benthic foraminifera Pararotalia calcariformata recently discovered in the eastern Mediterranean. We identify its symbionts as a consortium of diatom species dominated by Minutocellus polymorphus. We show that in the field, the foraminifera retains its pigments at a thermally polluted site, where peak water temperatures reach 36°C. To test whether this tolerance represents a widespread adaptation, we conducted manipulative experiments exposing populations from an unpolluted site to elevated temperatures for up to three weeks. The populations were kept in co-culture with the more thermally sensitive diatom-bearing foraminifera Amphistegina lobifera. Reduced photosynthetic activity in A. lobifera occurred at 32°C whereas photochemical stress in P. calcariformata was first observed during exposure to 36°C and chronic photoinhibition (but not mortality) first occurred at 42°C. Survivorship was high in all treatments, and growth was observed under thermal conditions similar to summer maxima at the thermally polluted site (35-36°C). The photosymbiosis in P. calcariformata is unusually thermally tolerant for a photosymbiont-bearing eukaryote. The thermal tolerance of this photosymbiosis is present in a natural environment where its thermal threshold is never realized. These observations imply that photosymbiosis in marine protists can respond to elevated temperatures by drawing on a pool of naturally occurring pre-adaptations. It also provides a perspective on the massive occurrence of

  12. Future changes in atmospheric circulation types and related precipitation extremes in Central Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Homann, Markus; Jacobeit, Jucundus; Beck, Christoph; Philipp, Andreas

    2016-04-01

    The statistical evaluation of the relationships between atmospheric circulation types and areal precipitation events took place in the context of an international project called WETRAX (Weather patterns, storm tracks and related precipitation extremes). The aim of the project was to estimate the regional flooding potential in Central Europe under enhanced climate change conditions. For parts of southern Central Europe, a gridded daily precipitation set with 6km horizontal resolution has been generated for the period 1951-2006 by the Austrian Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik (ZAMG). To determine regions with similar precipitation variability, a S-mode principal component analysis has been applied. Extreme precipitation events are defined by the 95% percentile, based on regional arithmetic means of daily precipitation. Large-scale atmospheric circulation types have been derived by different statistical methods and variables using the COST733 classification software and gridded daily NCEP1 reanalysis data. To evaluate the performance of a particular circulation type classification with respect to regional precipitation extremes, multiple regression models have been derived between the circulation type frequencies as predictor variables and monthly frequencies of extreme precipitation as well as monthly rainfall amounts from these events. To estimate the regional flooding potential in Central Europe under enhanced climate change conditions, multiple regression models are applied to different projected GCM predictor data. Thus, future changes in circulation type occurrence frequencies are transferred into assessments of future changes in precipitation extremes on a regional scale.

  13. Vibroacoustic Analysis of Large Heat Rejection Radiators for Future Spacecraft

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Larko, Jeffrey M.; McNelis, Mark E.; Hughes, William O.

    2006-01-01

    Spacecraft structures such as antennas, solar arrays and radiator panels significantly respond to high acoustic levels seen at lift-off. Some future spacecraft may utilize nuclear electric propulsion that require large radiator panels to reject waste heat. A vibroacoustic assessment was performed for two different radiator panel designs. Results from the analysis of the two designs using different analytical approaches are presented and discussed.

  14. Atmospheric Rivers in the CESM: Validation, Connections to Extreme Precipitation, and Projections for the Future

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shields, C. A.; Kiehl, J. T.

    2014-12-01

    Atmospheric Rivers (ARs) are long, narrow, intense, and evolving filamentary structures responsible for transporting significant amounts of moisture from the tropics to mid-latitudes and are often associated with extreme winter-time precipitation for regions such as the West Coast of the United States. The Community Earth System Model (CESM) captures these synoptic scale structures as well as their extreme precipitation. The CESM version employed utilizes high resolution atmosphere/land components (0.5o) coupled to the standard (1o) ocean/ice components. The high resolution atmosphere is able to more accurately represent extreme, regional precipitation. Cataloguing AR events in long-term climate simulations where centuries of data are produced requires an automated AR-identification algorithm that captures the spatial and temporal structures of these events. These algorithms may vary in complexity but all necessitate the inclusion of water vapor content thresholds. The adoption of observationally based empirical threshold values may not translate well to future climate projections as increased temperatures change the background water vapor content (Clausius-Clapeyron relationship). Here, we evaluate spatial and temporal characteristics of Western U.S. ARs in CESM and compare them to observations. A variety of threshold definitions will be discussed which span observationally based values of water vapor content to values relative to the background state (more appropriate for future climate). Model simulated extreme precipitation related to AR's and results from the RCP8.5 future climate scenario will be shown.

  15. Future change of extreme temperature climate indices over East Asia with uncertainties estimation in the CMIP5

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Seo, Ye-Won; Kim, Hojin; Yun, Kyung-Sook; Lee, June-Yi; Ha, Kyung-Ja; Moon, Ja-Yeon

    2014-11-01

    How well the climate models simulate extreme temperature over East Asia and how the extreme indices would change under anthropogenic global warming are investigated. The indices studied include hot days (HD), tropical nights (TN), growing degree days (GDD), and cooling degree days (CDD) in summer and heating degree days (HDD) and frost days (FD) in winter. The representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP 4.5) experiments for the period of 2075-2099 are compared with historical simulations for the period of 1979-2005 from 15 coupled models that are participated in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). To optimally estimate future change and its uncertainty, groups of best models are selected based on Taylor diagrams, relative entropy, and probability density function (PDF) methods previously suggested. Overall, the best models' multi-model ensemble based on Taylor diagrams has the lowest errors in reproducing temperature extremes in the present climate among three methods. Selected best models in three methods tend to project considerably different changes in the extreme indices from each other, indicating that the selection of reliable models are of critical importance to reduce uncertainties. Three groups of best models show significant increase of summerbased indices but decrease of the winter-based indices. Over East Asia, the most significant increase is seen in the HD (336 ± 23.4% of current climate) and the most significant decrease is appeared in the HDD (82 ± 4.2%). It is suggested that the larger future change in the HD is found over in the Southeastern China region, probably due to a higher local maximum temperature in the present climate. All of the indices show the largest uncertainty over Southeastern China, particularly in the TN (~3.9 times as large as uncertainty over East Asia) and in the HD (~2.4). It is further noted that the TN reveals the largest uncertainty over three East Asian countries (~1.7 and 1.4 over Korea and

  16. The Spanish tourist sector facing extreme climate events: a case study of domestic tourism in the heat wave of 2003.

    PubMed

    Gómez-Martín, M Belén; Armesto-López, Xosé A; Martínez-Ibarra, Emilio

    2014-07-01

    This research explores, by means of a questionnaire-based survey, public knowledge and perception as well as the behaviour of young Spanish tourists before, during and after the summer holiday period affected by an episode of extreme heat in 2003. The survey was administered between November and December 2004. The extraordinary heat wave of the summer of 2003 can be seen as an example of a normal episode in terms of the predicted intensity and duration of European summers towards the end of the twenty-first century. It can therefore be used as the laboratory setting for this study. In this context, the use of the climate analogue approach allows us to obtain novel perspectives regarding the future impact that this type of event could have on tourist demand, based on a real experience. Likewise, such an approach allows the strategies of adaptation implemented by the different elements in the tourist system in order to cope with the atmospheric episode to be evaluated. Such strategies could prove useful in reducing vulnerability when faced with similar episodes in the future. The main results indicate that Spanish tourists (young segment market) are flexible in adapting to episodes of extremely high temperatures. Their personal perception of the phenomenon, their behaviour and the adaptation measures implemented to a greater or lesser extent before that time, reduce the vulnerability of the sector when faced with this type of event, at least from the point of view of this young segment of the internal national market. In Spain, the episode of extreme heat of 2003 has led to the implementation or improvement of some adaptive measures after the event, especially in the fields of management, policy and education. PMID:23619577

  17. The Spanish tourist sector facing extreme climate events: a case study of domestic tourism in the heat wave of 2003

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gómez-Martín, M. Belén; Armesto-López, Xosé A.; Martínez-Ibarra, Emilio

    2013-04-01

    This research explores, by means of a questionnaire-based survey, public knowledge and perception as well as the behaviour of young Spanish tourists before, during and after the summer holiday period affected by an episode of extreme heat in 2003. The survey was administered between November and December 2004. The extraordinary heat wave of the summer of 2003 can be seen as an example of a normal episode in terms of the predicted intensity and duration of European summers towards the end of the twenty-first century. It can therefore be used as the laboratory setting for this study. In this context, the use of the climate analogue approach allows us to obtain novel perspectives regarding the future impact that this type of event could have on tourist demand, based on a real experience. Likewise, such an approach allows the strategies of adaptation implemented by the different elements in the tourist system in order to cope with the atmospheric episode to be evaluated. Such strategies could prove useful in reducing vulnerability when faced with similar episodes in the future. The main results indicate that Spanish tourists (young segment market) are flexible in adapting to episodes of extremely high temperatures. Their personal perception of the phenomenon, their behaviour and the adaptation measures implemented to a greater or lesser extent before that time, reduce the vulnerability of the sector when faced with this type of event, at least from the point of view of this young segment of the internal national market. In Spain, the episode of extreme heat of 2003 has led to the implementation or improvement of some adaptive measures after the event, especially in the fields of management, policy and education.

  18. The Spanish tourist sector facing extreme climate events: a case study of domestic tourism in the heat wave of 2003

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gómez-Martín, M. Belén; Armesto-López, Xosé A.; Martínez-Ibarra, Emilio

    2014-07-01

    This research explores, by means of a questionnaire-based survey, public knowledge and perception as well as the behaviour of young Spanish tourists before, during and after the summer holiday period affected by an episode of extreme heat in 2003. The survey was administered between November and December 2004. The extraordinary heat wave of the summer of 2003 can be seen as an example of a normal episode in terms of the predicted intensity and duration of European summers towards the end of the twenty-first century. It can therefore be used as the laboratory setting for this study. In this context, the use of the climate analogue approach allows us to obtain novel perspectives regarding the future impact that this type of event could have on tourist demand, based on a real experience. Likewise, such an approach allows the strategies of adaptation implemented by the different elements in the tourist system in order to cope with the atmospheric episode to be evaluated. Such strategies could prove useful in reducing vulnerability when faced with similar episodes in the future. The main results indicate that Spanish tourists (young segment market) are flexible in adapting to episodes of extremely high temperatures. Their personal perception of the phenomenon, their behaviour and the adaptation measures implemented to a greater or lesser extent before that time, reduce the vulnerability of the sector when faced with this type of event, at least from the point of view of this young segment of the internal national market. In Spain, the episode of extreme heat of 2003 has led to the implementation or improvement of some adaptive measures after the event, especially in the fields of management, policy and education.

  19. The Spanish tourist sector facing extreme climate events: a case study of domestic tourism in the heat wave of 2003.

    PubMed

    Gómez-Martín, M Belén; Armesto-López, Xosé A; Martínez-Ibarra, Emilio

    2014-07-01

    This research explores, by means of a questionnaire-based survey, public knowledge and perception as well as the behaviour of young Spanish tourists before, during and after the summer holiday period affected by an episode of extreme heat in 2003. The survey was administered between November and December 2004. The extraordinary heat wave of the summer of 2003 can be seen as an example of a normal episode in terms of the predicted intensity and duration of European summers towards the end of the twenty-first century. It can therefore be used as the laboratory setting for this study. In this context, the use of the climate analogue approach allows us to obtain novel perspectives regarding the future impact that this type of event could have on tourist demand, based on a real experience. Likewise, such an approach allows the strategies of adaptation implemented by the different elements in the tourist system in order to cope with the atmospheric episode to be evaluated. Such strategies could prove useful in reducing vulnerability when faced with similar episodes in the future. The main results indicate that Spanish tourists (young segment market) are flexible in adapting to episodes of extremely high temperatures. Their personal perception of the phenomenon, their behaviour and the adaptation measures implemented to a greater or lesser extent before that time, reduce the vulnerability of the sector when faced with this type of event, at least from the point of view of this young segment of the internal national market. In Spain, the episode of extreme heat of 2003 has led to the implementation or improvement of some adaptive measures after the event, especially in the fields of management, policy and education.

  20. Impacts on cropping systems of present and future extreme events assessed with various regional climate models in the Iberian Peninsula

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ruiz-Ramos, M.; Gallardo, C.; Sánchez, E.; Mínguez, M. I.

    2009-04-01

    Climate variability and extreme events in particular, are expected to increase with climate change. Several types of extreme processes, such as freezing, heat or cold waves, droughts or heavy precipitation situations are of special relevance for agricultural impacts. Not only the frequency and intensity of these events but also their timing compared to the crop development will determine their impact. Mediterranean agriculture has been reported to present important climate change impacts with related high uncertainty. In this work, crop simulation models of maize and wheat were applied in several agricultural locations of the Iberian Peninsula using climate data from a group of regional climate models (RCMs) participating in the European Project PRUDENCE. The objective was to analyze the effect of extreme events in agriculture in future climate (A2 IPCC SRES scenario for 2070-2100) in relation to current conditions (1960-1990). The use of several RCMs allows for one uncertainty evaluation associated to these processes. The analysis enabled identifying periods with maximum and minimum probability of risk related to crop development, and will help to design adaptation strategies in cropping systems to match minimum risk periods.

  1. Increased hospital admissions associated with extreme-heat exposure in King County, Washington, 1990-2010

    PubMed Central

    Isaksen, Tania Busch; Yost, Michael G.; Hom, Elizabeth K.; Ren, You; Lyons, Hilary; Fenske, Richard A.

    2016-01-01

    Increased morbidity and mortality have been associated with extreme heat events, particularly in temperate climates. Few epidemiologic studies have considered the impact of extreme heat events on hospitalization rates in the Pacific Northwest region. This study quantifies the historical (May to September 1990-2010) heat-morbidity relationship in the most populous Pacific Northwest County -King County, Washington. A relative risk (RR) analysis was used to explore the association between heat and all non-traumatic hospitalizations on 99th percentile heat days, while a time series analysis using a piece-wise linear model approximation was used to estimate the effect that heat’s intensity has on hospitalizations, adjusted for temporal trends and day of the week. A non-statistically significant 2% [95% CI: 1.02 (0.98, 1.05)] increase in hospitalization risk, on a heat day versus a non-heat day, was noted for all-ages, all non-traumatic causes. When considering the effect heat intensity has on admissions, we found a statistically significant 1.59% (95% CI: 0.9%, 2.29%) increase in admissions per degree increase in humidex above 37.4 °C. Admissions stratified by cause and age produced statistically significant results with both relative risk and time series analyses for nephritis and nephrotic syndromes, acute renal failure and natural heat exposure hospitalizations. This study demonstrates that heat, expressed as humidex, is associated with increased hospital admissions. When stratified by age and cause of admission, the non-elderly (less than 85) age groups experience significant risk for: nephritis and nephrotic syndromes, acute renal failure, natural heat exposure, COPD and asthma hospitalizations. PMID:25719287

  2. Assessment of future variability in extreme precipitation and the potential effects on the wadi flow regime.

    PubMed

    Gunawardhana, Luminda Niroshana; Al-Rawas, Ghazi A; Kazama, So; Al-Najar, Khalid A

    2015-10-01

    The objective of this study is to investigate how the magnitude and occurrence of extreme precipitation events are affected by climate change and to predict the subsequent impacts on the wadi flow regime in the Al-Khod catchment area, Muscat, Oman. The tank model, a lumped-parameter rainfall-runoff model, was used to simulate the wadi flow. Precipitation extremes and their potential future changes were predicted using six-member ensembles of general circulation models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Yearly maxima of the daily precipitation and wadi flow for varying return periods were compared for observed and projected data by fitting the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution function. Flow duration curves (FDC) were developed and compared for the observed and projected wadi flows. The results indicate that extreme precipitation events consistently increase by the middle of the twenty-first century for all return periods (49-52%), but changes may become more profound by the end of the twenty-first century (81-101%). Consequently, the relative change in extreme wadi flow is greater than twofolds for all of the return periods in the late twenty-first century compared to the relative changes that occur in the mid-century period. Precipitation analysis further suggests that greater than 50% of the precipitation may be associated with extreme events in the future. The FDC analysis reveals that changes in low-to-moderate flows (Q60-Q90) may not be statistically significant, whereas increases in high flows (Q5) are statistically robust (20 and 25% for the mid- and late-century periods, respectively). PMID:26370197

  3. Using dry and wet year hydroclimatic extremes to guide future hydrologic projections

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oni, Stephen; Futter, Martyn; Ledesma, Jose; Teutschbein, Claudia; Buttle, Jim; Laudon, Hjalmar

    2016-07-01

    There are growing numbers of studies on climate change impacts on forest hydrology, but limited attempts have been made to use current hydroclimatic variabilities to constrain projections of future climatic conditions. Here we used historical wet and dry years as a proxy for expected future extreme conditions in a boreal catchment. We showed that runoff could be underestimated by at least 35 % when dry year parameterizations were used for wet year conditions. Uncertainty analysis showed that behavioural parameter sets from wet and dry years separated mainly on precipitation-related parameters and to a lesser extent on parameters related to landscape processes, while uncertainties inherent in climate models (as opposed to differences in calibration or performance metrics) appeared to drive the overall uncertainty in runoff projections under dry and wet hydroclimatic conditions. Hydrologic model calibration for climate impact studies could be based on years that closely approximate anticipated conditions to better constrain uncertainty in projecting extreme conditions in boreal and temperate regions.

  4. Revisiting extreme storms of the past 100 years for future safety of large water management infrastructures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Xiaodong; Hossain, Faisal

    2016-07-01

    Historical extreme storm events are widely used to make Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) estimates, which form the cornerstone of large water management infrastructure safety. Past studies suggest that extreme precipitation processes can be sensitive to land surface feedback and the planetary warming trend, which makes the future safety of large infrastructures questionable given the projected changes in land cover and temperature in the coming decades. In this study, a numerical modeling framework was employed to reconstruct 10 extreme storms over CONUS that occurred during the past 100 years, which are used by the engineering profession for PMP estimation for large infrastructures such as dams. Results show that the correlation in daily rainfall for such reconstruction can range between 0.4 and 0.7, while the correlation for maximum 3-day accumulation (a standard period used in infrastructure design) is always above 0.5 for post-1948 storms. This suggests that current numerical modeling and reanalysis data allow us to reconstruct big storms after 1948 with acceptable accuracy. For storms prior to 1948, however, reconstruction of storms shows inconsistency with observations. Our study indicates that numerical modeling and data may not have advanced to a sufficient level to understand how such old storms (pre-1948) may behave in future warming and land cover conditions. However, the infrastructure community can certainly rely on the use of model reconstructed extreme storms of the 1948-present period to reassess safety of our large water infrastructures under assumed changes in temperature and land cover.

  5. Extreme Heat

    MedlinePlus

    ... Hazardous Materials Incidents Home Fires Household Chemical Emergencies Hurricanes Landslides & Debris Flow Nuclear Blast Nuclear Power Plants ... Hazardous Materials Incidents Home Fires Household Chemical Emergencies Hurricanes Landslides & Debris Flow Nuclear Blast Nuclear Power Plants ...

  6. Modeling soil heating and moisture transport under extreme conditions: Forest fires and slash pile burns

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Massman, W. J.

    2012-10-01

    Heating any soil during a sufficiently intense wildfire or prescribed burn can alter it irreversibly, causing many significant, long-term biological, chemical, and hydrological effects. Given the climate-change-driven increasing probability of wildfires and the increasing use of prescribed burns by land managers, it is important to better understand the dynamics of the coupled heat and moisture transport in soil during these extreme heating events. Furthermore, improved understanding and modeling of heat and mass transport during extreme conditions should provide insights into the associated transport mechanisms under more normal conditions. The present study describes a numerical model developed to simulate soil heat and moisture transport during fires where the surface heating often ranges between 10,000 and 100,000 W m-2 for several minutes to several hours. Basically, the model extends methods commonly used to model coupled heat flow and moisture evaporation at ambient conditions into regions of extreme dryness and heat. But it also incorporates some infrequently used formulations for temperature dependencies of the soil specific heat, thermal conductivity, and the water retention curve, as well as advective effects due to the large changes in volume that occur when liquid water is rapidly volatilized. Model performance is tested against laboratory measurements of soil temperature and moisture changes at several depths during controlled heating events. Qualitatively, the model agrees with the laboratory observations, namely, it simulates an increase in soil moisture ahead of the drying front (due to the condensation of evaporated soil water at the front) and a hiatus in the soil temperature rise during the strongly evaporative stage of the soil drying. Nevertheless, it is shown that the model is incapable of producing a physically realistic solution because it does not (and, in fact, cannot) represent the relationship between soil water potential and soil

  7. Future hydrological extremes: the uncertainty from multiple global climate and global hydrological models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Giuntoli, I.; Vidal, J.-P.; Prudhomme, C.; Hannah, D. M.

    2015-05-01

    Projections of changes in the hydrological cycle from global hydrological models (GHMs) driven by global climate models (GCMs) are critical for understanding future occurrence of hydrological extremes. However, uncertainties remain large and need to be better assessed. In particular, recent studies have pointed to a considerable contribution of GHMs that can equal or outweigh the contribution of GCMs to uncertainty in hydrological projections. Using six GHMs and five GCMs from the ISI-MIP multi-model ensemble, this study aims: (i) to assess future changes in the frequency of both high and low flows at the global scale using control and future (RCP8.5) simulations by the 2080s, and (ii) to quantify, for both ends of the runoff spectrum, GCMs and GHMs contributions to uncertainty using a two-way ANOVA. Increases are found in high flows for northern latitudes and in low flows for several hotspots. Globally, the largest source of uncertainty is associated with GCMs, but GHMs are the greatest source in snow-dominated regions. More specifically, results vary depending on the runoff metric, the temporal (annual and seasonal) and regional scale of analysis. For instance, uncertainty contribution from GHMs is higher for low flows than it is for high flows, partly owing to the different processes driving the onset of the two phenomena (e.g. the more direct effect of the GCMs' precipitation variability on high flows). This study provides a comprehensive synthesis of where future hydrological extremes are projected to increase and where the ensemble spread is owed to either GCMs or GHMs. Finally, our results underline the need for improvements in modelling snowmelt and runoff processes to project future hydrological extremes and the importance of using multiple GCMs and GHMs to encompass the uncertainty range provided by these two sources.

  8. Future changes in Central Europe heat waves expected to mostly follow summer mean warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ballester, Joan; Rodó, Xavier; Giorgi, Filippo

    2010-12-01

    Daily output from the PRUDENCE ensemble of regional climate simulations for the end of the twentieth and twenty-first centuries over Europe is used to show that the increasing intensity of the most damaging summer heat waves over Central Europe is mostly due to higher base summer temperatures. In this context, base temperature is defined as the mean of the seasonal cycle component for those calendar days when regional heat waves occur and is close, albeit not identical, to the mean temperature for July-August. Although 36-47% of future Central Europe July and August days at the end of the twenty-first century are projected to be extreme according to the present day climatology, specific changes in deseasonalized heat wave anomalies are projected to be relatively small. Instead, changes in summer base temperatures appear much larger, clearly identifiable and of the same order of magnitude as changes in the whole magnitude of heat waves. Our results bear important consequences for the predictability of central European heat wave intensity under global warming conditions.

  9. Soil heating and evaporation under extreme conditions: Forest fires and slash pile burns

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Massman, W. J.

    2011-12-01

    Heating any soil during a sufficiently intense wild fire or prescribed burn can alter soil irreversibly, resulting in many significant and well known, long term biological, chemical, and hydrological effects. To better understand how fire impacts soil, especially considering the increasing probability of wildfires that is being driven by climate change and the increasing use of prescribe burns by land managers, it is important to better understand the dynamics of the coupled heat and moisture transport in soil during these extreme heating events. Furthermore, improving understanding of heat and mass transport during such extreme conditions should also provide insights into the associated transport mechanisms under more normal conditions as well. Here I describe the development of a new model designed to simulate soil heat and moisture transport during fires where the surface heating often ranges between 10,000 and 100,000 Wm-2 for several minutes to several hours. Model performance is tested against laboratory measurements of soil temperature and moisture changes at several depths during controlled heating events created with an extremely intense radiant heater. The laboratory tests employed well described soils with well known physical properties. The model, on the other hand, is somewhat unusual in that it employs formulations for temperature dependencies of the soil specific heat, thermal conductivity, and the water retention curve (relation between soil moisture and soil moisture potential). It also employs a new formulation for the surface evaporation rate as a component of the upper boundary condition, as well as the Newton-Raphson method and the generalized Thomas algorithm for inverting block tri-diagonal matrices to solve for soil temperature and soil moisture potential. Model results show rapid evaporation rates with significant vapor transfer not only to the free atmosphere above the soil, but to lower depths of the soil, where the vapor re

  10. Potential future increase in extreme one-hour precipitation events over Europe due to climate change.

    PubMed

    Larsen, A N; Gregersen, I B; Christensen, O B; Linde, J J; Mikkelsen, P S

    2009-01-01

    In this study the potential increase of extreme precipitation in a future warmer European climate has been examined. Output from the regional climate model (RCM) HIRHAM4 covering Europe has been analysed for two periods, a control period 1961-1990 and a scenario 2071-2100, the latter following the IPCC scenario A2. The model has a resolution of about 12 km, which is unique compared with existing RCM studies that typically operate at 25-50 km scale, and make the results relevant to hydrological phenomena occurring at the spatial scale of the infrastructure designed to drain off rainfall in large urban areas. Extreme events with one- and 24-hour duration were extracted using the Partial Duration Series approach, a Generalized Pareto Distribution was fitted to the data and T-year events for return periods from 2 to 100 years were calculated for the control and scenario period in model cells across Europe. The analysis shows that there will be an increase of the intensity of extreme events generally in Europe; Scandinavia will experience the highest increase and southern Europe the lowest. A 20 year 1-hour precipitation event will for example become a 4 year event in Sweden and a 10 year event in Spain. Intensities for short durations and high return periods will increase the most, which implies that European urban drainage systems will be challenged in the future.

  11. The impact of future changes in weather patterns on extreme sea levels over southern Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Colberg, Frank; McInnes, Kathleen L.

    This study first compares two methods by which the global, variable resolution Cubic Conformal Atmospheric Model (CCAM) is forced by reanalysis over Australia. The methods are the spectral nudging and bias-corrected sea surface temperature (SST) forcing. Surface winds and sea level pressure are compared since these influence coastal sea levels. SST forcing was found to better preserve the mean and standard deviation of these quantities. Second, a hydrodynamic model is used to model sea levels over southern Australia over 1980-1999 and 2080-2099 to investigate how changes in weather patterns affect extreme sea levels. Forcing from one Global Climate Model (GCM) and two CCAM simulations in which CCAM was used to downscale two GCMs over Australia with bias-corrected SST forcing (including the GCM considered in this study) were used. While there are differences in the spatial patterns of change between seasons over the modeled coastline between the three models, extreme sea levels were mostly lower in the future period over the southern mainland coastline from autumn to spring due to reduced westerlies in the climate models. The sea level changes around Tasmania varied from positive to negative depending on the model and season. The projected extreme sea level changes were within 10 cm of current climate values. This suggests that over southern Australia extreme sea level changes will be dominated by changes in mean sea level due to thermal expansion and ice sheet and glacier melt rather than changes in weather patterns.

  12. A non-equilibrium model for soil heating and evaporation under extreme conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Massman, W. J.

    2014-12-01

    Extreme heating of soils during fires can have long-term and irreversible consequences and given the increasing use of prescribed fire by land managers and the increasing probability of wildfires associated with global warming, one approach to improving understanding of these consequences is to better understand and model the dynamics of the coupled heat, (liquid) moisture, and vapor transport in soils during extreme heating events. The present study describes a model developed to simulate non-equilibrium soil evaporation and the transport of heat, moisture, and water vapor under conditions during fires where the surface heating of the soil often ranges between 10,000 and 100,000 Wm-2 for several minutes to several hours. The Hertz-Knudsen equation is the basis for constructing the model's non-equilibrium evaporative source term. Model performance is tested against laboratory measurements of soil temperature and moisture changes. Testing the present model with different formulations for soil hydraulic conductivity, water retention curve, water activity, and the non-equilibrium evaporative source term, indicates that virtually all the model's successes result from the use of a temperature dependent condensation coefficient in the evaporative source term, a rather surprising and unexpected result. On the other hand, the model solution is not a completely faithful representation of the laboratory data. Nevertheless, this new non-equilibrium model circumvents many of the problems that plagued an equilibrium model developed for the same purpose (Massman 2012: Water Resources Research 48, WR011710) and provides a much more physically realistic simulation than the earlier model. Finally, the present model should provide insight into modeling of heat and mass transport and evaporation, not only during high temperature and low moisture conditions, but for modeling these soil processes under less extreme environmental conditions as well.

  13. Increased mortality associated with extreme-heat exposure in King County, Washington, 1980-2010.

    PubMed

    Isaksen, Tania Busch; Fenske, Richard A; Hom, Elizabeth K; Ren, You; Lyons, Hilary; Yost, Michael G

    2016-01-01

    Extreme heat has been associated with increased mortality, particularly in temperate climates. Few epidemiologic studies have considered the Pacific Northwest region in their analyses. This study quantified the historical (May to September, 1980-2010) heat-mortality relationship in the most populous Pacific Northwest County, King County, Washington. A relative risk (RR) analysis was used to explore the relationship between heat and all-cause mortality on 99th percentile heat days, while a time series analysis, using a piece-wise linear model fit, was used to estimate the effect of heat intensity on mortality, adjusted for temporal trends. For all ages, all causes, we found a 10% (1.10 (95% confidence interval (CI), 1.06, 1.14)) increase in the risk of death on a heat day versus non-heat day. When considering the intensity effect of heat on all-cause mortality, we found a 1.69% (95% CI, 0.69, 2.70) increase in the risk of death per unit of humidex above 36.0°C. Mortality stratified by cause and age produced statistically significant results using both types of analyses for: all-cause, non-traumatic, circulatory, cardiovascular, cerebrovascular, and diabetes causes of death. All-cause mortality was statistically significantly modified by the type of synoptic weather type. These results demonstrate that heat, expressed as humidex, is associated with increased mortality on heat days, and that risk increases with heat's intensity. While age was the only individual-level characteristic found to modify mortality risks, statistically significant increases in diabetes-related mortality for the 45-64 age group suggests that underlying health status may contribute to these risks. PMID:25956805

  14. Increased mortality associated with extreme-heat exposure in King County, Washington, 1980-2010

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Isaksen, Tania Busch; Fenske, Richard A.; Hom, Elizabeth K.; Ren, You; Lyons, Hilary; Yost, Michael G.

    2016-01-01

    Extreme heat has been associated with increased mortality, particularly in temperate climates. Few epidemiologic studies have considered the Pacific Northwest region in their analyses. This study quantified the historical (May to September, 1980-2010) heat-mortality relationship in the most populous Pacific Northwest County, King County, Washington. A relative risk (RR) analysis was used to explore the relationship between heat and all-cause mortality on 99th percentile heat days, while a time series analysis, using a piece-wise linear model fit, was used to estimate the effect of heat intensity on mortality, adjusted for temporal trends. For all ages, all causes, we found a 10 % (1.10 (95 % confidence interval (CI), 1.06, 1.14)) increase in the risk of death on a heat day versus non-heat day. When considering the intensity effect of heat on all-cause mortality, we found a 1.69 % (95 % CI, 0.69, 2.70) increase in the risk of death per unit of humidex above 36.0 °C. Mortality stratified by cause and age produced statistically significant results using both types of analyses for: all-cause, non-traumatic, circulatory, cardiovascular, cerebrovascular, and diabetes causes of death. All-cause mortality was statistically significantly modified by the type of synoptic weather type. These results demonstrate that heat, expressed as humidex, is associated with increased mortality on heat days, and that risk increases with heat's intensity. While age was the only individual-level characteristic found to modify mortality risks, statistically significant increases in diabetes-related mortality for the 45-64 age group suggests that underlying health status may contribute to these risks.

  15. Aerosol effect on climate extremes in Europe under different future scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sillmann, J.; Pozzoli, L.; Vignati, E.; Kloster, S.; Feichter, J.

    2013-05-01

    This study investigates changes in extreme temperature and precipitation events under different future scenarios of anthropogenic aerosol emissions (i.e., SO2 and black and organic carbon) simulated with an aerosol-climate model (ECHAM5-HAM) with focus on Europe. The simulations include a maximum feasible aerosol reduction (MFR) scenario and a current legislation emission (CLEmod) scenario where Europe implements the MFR scenario, but the rest of the world follows the current legislation scenario and a greenhouse gas scenario. The strongest changes relative to the year 2000 are projected for the MFR scenario, in which the global aerosol reduction greatly enforces the general warming effect due to greenhouse gases and results in significant increases of temperature and precipitation extremes in Europe. Regional warming effects can also be identified from aerosol reductions under the CLEmodscenario. This becomes most obvious in the increase of the hottest summer daytime temperatures in Northern Europe.

  16. The Role of CO2 Physiological Forcing in Driving Future Precipitation Variability and Precipitation Extremes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Skinner, C. B.; Poulsen, C. J.

    2015-12-01

    Transpired water contributes roughly 25% to total precipitation over the Earth's land surface. In addition to transpiration's impact on climatological mean precipitation, recent work suggests that transpiration reduces daily and intraseasonal precipitation variability in tropical forest regions. Projected increases in the concentration of CO2 are expected to reduce transpiration through changes in plant physiology (termed the CO2 physiological effect). Here, we use an ensemble of climate model experiments to assess the potential contribution of the CO2 physiological effect to future changes in precipitation variability and extreme precipitation events. Within our model simulations, precipitation responses to the physiological effects of increased CO2 concentrations are greatest throughout the tropics. In most tropical forest regions CO2 physiological forcing increases the annual number of dry (less than 0.1 mm/day) and extremely wet (rainfall exceeds 95th percentile) days. Changes in precipitation are primarily driven by an increase in surface temperature and subsequent changes in atmospheric stability and moisture convergence over vegetated tropical land regions. Our results suggest that the plant physiological response to CO2 forcing may serve as an important contributor to future precipitation variability in the tropics, and that future work should aim to reduce uncertainty in the response of plant physiology to changes in climate.

  17. Extreme Ultraviolet Imaging of Electron Heated Targets in Petawatt Laser Experiments

    SciTech Connect

    Ma, T; MacPhee, A; Key, M; Akli, K; Mackinnon, A; Chen, C; Barbee, T; Freeman, R; King, J; Link, A; Offermann, D; Ovchinnikov, V; Patel, P; Stephens, R; VanWoerkom, L; Zhang, B; Beg, F

    2007-11-29

    The study of the transport of electrons, and the flow of energy into a solid target or dense plasma, is instrumental in the development of fast ignition inertial confinement fusion. An extreme ultraviolet (XUV) imaging diagnostic at 256 eV and 68 eV provides information about heating and energy deposition within petawatt laser-irradiated targets. XUV images of several irradiated solid targets are presented.

  18. The analyses of extreme climate events over China based on CMIP5 historical and future simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, S.; Dong, W.; Feng, J.; Chou, J.

    2013-12-01

    The extreme climate events have a serious influence on human society. Based on observations and 12 simulations from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), Climatic extremes and their changes over china in history and future scenarios of three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) are analyzed. Because of the background of global warming, in observations, the frost days (FD) and low-temperature threshold days (TN10P) have decreasing trend, and summer days (SU), high-temperature threshold days (TX90P), the heavy precipitation days (R20) and contribution of heavy precipitation days (P95T) show an increasing trend. Most coupled models can basically simulate main characteristics of most extreme indexes. The models reproduce the mean FD and TX90P value best and can give basic trends of the FD, TN10P, SU and TX90P. High correlation coefficients between simulated results and observation are found in FD, SU and P95T. For FD and SU index, most of the models have good ability to capture the spatial differences between the mean state of the 1986-2005 and 1961-1980 periods, but for other indexes, most of models' simulation ability for spatial disparity are not so satisfactory and have to be promoted. Under the high emission scenario of RCP8.5, the century-scale linear changes of Multi-Model Ensembles (MME) for FD, SU, TN10P, TX90P, R20 and P95T are -46.9, 46.0, -27.1, 175.4, 2.9 days and 9.9%, respectively. Due to the complexities of physical process parameterizations and the limitation of forcing data, a large uncertainty still exists in the simulations of climatic extremes. Fig.1 Observed and modeled multi-year average for each index (Dotted line: observation) Table1. Extreme index definition

  19. Simulation of extreme rainfall and projection of future changes using the GLIMCLIM model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rashid, Md. Mamunur; Beecham, Simon; Chowdhury, Rezaul Kabir

    2016-08-01

    In this study, the performance of the Generalized LInear Modelling of daily CLImate sequence (GLIMCLIM) statistical downscaling model was assessed to simulate extreme rainfall indices and annual maximum daily rainfall (AMDR) when downscaled daily rainfall from National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) general circulation models (GCM) (four GCMs and two scenarios) output datasets and then their changes were estimated for the future period 2041-2060. The model was able to reproduce the monthly variations in the extreme rainfall indices reasonably well when forced by the NCEP reanalysis datasets. Frequency Adapted Quantile Mapping (FAQM) was used to remove bias in the simulated daily rainfall when forced by CMIP5 GCMs, which reduced the discrepancy between observed and simulated extreme rainfall indices. Although the observed AMDR were within the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles of the simulated AMDR, the model consistently under-predicted the inter-annual variability of AMDR. A non-stationary model was developed using the generalized linear model for local, shape and scale to estimate the AMDR with an annual exceedance probability of 0.01. The study shows that in general, AMDR is likely to decrease in the future. The Onkaparinga catchment will also experience drier conditions due to an increase in consecutive dry days coinciding with decreases in heavy (>long term 90th percentile) rainfall days, empirical 90th quantile of rainfall and maximum 5-day consecutive total rainfall for the future period (2041-2060) compared to the base period (1961-2000).

  20. Liquid jet impingement cooling with diamond substrates for extremely high heat flux applications

    SciTech Connect

    Lienhard, J.H. V; Khounsary, A.M.

    1993-09-01

    The combination of impinging jets and diamond substrates may provide an effective solution to a class of extremely high heat flux problems in which very localized heat loads must be removed. Some potential applications include the cooling of high-heat-load components in synchrotron x-ray, fusion, and semiconductor laser systems. Impinging liquid jets are a very effective vehicle for removing high heat fluxes. The liquid supply arrangement is relatively simple, and low thermal resistances can be routinely achieved. A jet`s cooling ability is a strong function of the size of the cooled area relative to the jet diameter. For relatively large area targets, the critical heat fluxes can approach 20 W/mm{sup 2}. In this situation, burnout usually originates at the outer edge of the cooled region as increasing heat flux inhibits the liquid supply. Limitations from liquid supply are minimized when heating is restricted to the jet stagnation zone. The high stagnation pressure and high velocity gradients appear to suppress critical flux phenomena, and fluxes of up to 400 W/mm{sup 2} have been reached without evidence of burnout. Instead, the restrictions on heat flux are closely related to properties of the cooled target. Target properties become an issue owing to the large temperatures and large temperature gradients that accompany heat fluxes over 100 W/mm{sup 2}. These conditions necessitate a target with both high thermal conductivity to prevent excessive temperatures and good mechanical properties to prevent mechanical failures. Recent developments in synthetic diamond technology present a possible solution to some of the solid-side constraints on heat flux. Polycrystalline diamond foils can now be produced by chemical vapor deposition in reasonable quantity and at reasonable cost. Synthetic single crystal diamonds as large as 1 cm{sup 2} are also available.

  1. Temporal Changes in Extreme High Temerature, Heat Waves in Istanbul Between 1960-2014

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yürük, C.; Ünal, Y. S.; Bilgen, S. I.; Menteş, Ş. S.; İncecik, S.

    2015-12-01

    Climate change has crucial effects on cities and especially for informal settlements, urban poor and other vulnerable groups by influencing human health, assets and livelihoods. These impacts directly result from the variations in temperature and precipitation, and emergence of heat waves, droughts, floods and fires (IPCC, 2014). Summertime episodes with extremely high air temperatures which last for several days or longer are addressed to as heat waves and affect the weather and climate in the globe. The aim of this study is to analyze the occurrence of heat waves in terms of quantity, duration and frequency and also to evaluate the accuracy of the COSMO-CLM (CCLM) model in reproducing the characteristics of heat waves in Istanbul. The summer maximum temperatures of six Turkish State Meteorological Service (TSMS) stations are selected between 1960 and 2014 to estimate the characteristics of heat waves in Istanbul. We define the heat wave if the maximum temperatures exceed a threshold value for at least three consecutive days. The threshold value is determined as 30.5 from the 90th percentile of all six station's observations. Then it is used in the detection of the hot days, heat waves and their durations. The results show that not only the number of heat waves but also duration of heat waves increase towards the end of the study period. Especially, a significant increase in heat wave events is evident after 1990s. In 2012, the number of hot days reaches the maximum value in all stations and Kartal station located southern part of city, has the highest value of 60 hot days. Furthermore, Kartal as an urban area in the Asian side of the city, exhibits highest heat wave duration with 18 consecutive days in 1998. To estimate the relationship between urban heat island intensity and the heat waves, we examined data at 43 stations collected by Disaster Coordination Center and TSMS between 2007 and 2012. Urban heat island phenomenon is found to be related to higher

  2. Attributing human mortality during extreme heat waves to anthropogenic climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mitchell, Daniel; Heaviside, Clare; Vardoulakis, Sotiris; Huntingford, Chris; Masato, Giacomo; Guillod, Benoit P.; Frumhoff, Peter; Bowery, Andy; Wallom, David; Allen, Myles

    2016-07-01

    It has been argued that climate change is the biggest global health threat of the 21st century. The extreme high temperatures of the summer of 2003 were associated with up to seventy thousand excess deaths across Europe. Previous studies have attributed the meteorological event to the human influence on climate, or examined the role of heat waves on human health. Here, for the first time, we explicitly quantify the role of human activity on climate and heat-related mortality in an event attribution framework, analysing both the Europe-wide temperature response in 2003, and localised responses over London and Paris. Using publicly-donated computing, we perform many thousands of climate simulations of a high-resolution regional climate model. This allows generation of a comprehensive statistical description of the 2003 event and the role of human influence within it, using the results as input to a health impact assessment model of human mortality. We find large-scale dynamical modes of atmospheric variability remain largely unchanged under anthropogenic climate change, and hence the direct thermodynamical response is mainly responsible for the increased mortality. In summer 2003, anthropogenic climate change increased the risk of heat-related mortality in Central Paris by ∼70% and by ∼20% in London, which experienced lower extreme heat. Out of the estimated ∼315 and ∼735 summer deaths attributed to the heatwave event in Greater London and Central Paris, respectively, 64 (±3) deaths were attributable to anthropogenic climate change in London, and 506 (±51) in Paris. Such an ability to robustly attribute specific damages to anthropogenic drivers of increased extreme heat can inform societal responses to, and responsibilities for, climate change.

  3. Current irrigation practices in the central United States reduce drought and extreme heat impacts for maize and soybean, but not for wheat.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Tianyi; Lin, Xiaomao; Sassenrath, Gretchen F

    2015-03-01

    In this study, we assessed the adaptive effects of irrigation on climatic risks for three crops (maize, soybean, and wheat) at the regional scale from 1981 to 2012 in the Central US. Based on yields of 183 counties for maize, 121 for soybean and 101 for wheat, statistical models were developed for irrigated, rainfed and county-level yields. Results show that irrigation has a statistically significant effect on abating detrimental climate impacts, specifically drought and extreme heat, in maize and soybean but not in wheat. On average, irrigation reduces the negative influences of extreme heat by around 7.2% for maize and 5.0% for soybean yields for each additional 10 degree-days above the optimal temperature for each crop. This is approximately two-thirds of the negative effects of extreme heat under rainfed management. The remaining third of the yield reduction is caused by heat damage that cannot be alleviated by irrigation. No significant differences were detected between county yields and irrigated yields for maize and soybean, suggesting that the existing irrigation practices were reasonably efficient. Efforts to mitigate future climate risks for these two crops should focus on improving the heat sensitivity contributing to the yield losses from heat damage. In contrast, the existing irrigation does not improve the resilience of wheat to climate risks. Both increased temperature and drought were critical to wheat production, which was potentially caused by relatively poor irrigation supplies for wheat. Further enhancement of wheat yield may be possible through improved irrigation management.

  4. Trends in 1970-2010 southern California surface maximum temperatures: extremes and heat waves

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ghebreegziabher, Amanuel T.

    Daily maximum temperatures from 1970-2010 were obtained from the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) for 28 South Coast Air Basin (SoCAB) Cooperative Network (COOP) sites. Analyses were carried out on the entire data set, as well as on the 1970-1974 and 2006-2010 sub-periods, including construction of spatial distributions and time-series trends of both summer-average and annual-maximum values and of the frequency of two and four consecutive "daytime" heat wave events. Spatial patterns of average and extreme values showed three areas consistent with climatological SoCAB flow patterns: cold coastal, warm inland low-elevation, and cool further-inland mountain top. Difference (2006-2010 minus 1970-1974) distributions of both average and extreme-value trends were consistent with the shorter period (1970-2005) study of previous study, as they showed the expected inland regional warming and a "reverse-reaction" cooling in low elevation coastal and inland areas open to increasing sea breeze flows. Annual-extreme trends generally showed cooling at sites below 600 m and warming at higher elevations. As the warming trends of the extremes were larger than those of the averages, regional warming thus impacts extremes more than averages. Spatial distributions of hot-day frequencies showed expected maximum at inland low-elevation sites. Regional warming again thus induced increases at both elevated-coastal areas, but low-elevation areas showed reverse-reaction decreases.

  5. Climate extremes indices in the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble: Part 2. Future climate projections

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sillmann, J.; Kharin, V. V.; Zwiers, F. W.; Zhang, X.; Bronaugh, D.

    2013-03-01

    This study provides an overview of projected changes in climate extremes indices defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). The temperature- and precipitation-based indices are computed with a consistent methodology for climate change simulations using different emission scenarios in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) and Phase 5 (CMIP5) multimodel ensembles. We analyze changes in the indices on global and regional scales over the 21st century relative to the reference period 1981-2000. In general, changes in indices based on daily minimum temperatures are found to be more pronounced than in indices based on daily maximum temperatures. Extreme precipitation generally increases faster than total wet-day precipitation. In regions, such as Australia, Central America, South Africa, and the Mediterranean, increases in consecutive dry days coincide with decreases in heavy precipitation days and maximum consecutive 5 day precipitation, which indicates future intensification of dry conditions. Particularly for the precipitation-based indices, there can be a wide disagreement about the sign of change between the models in some regions. Changes in temperature and precipitation indices are most pronounced under RCP8.5, with projected changes exceeding those discussed in previous studies based on SRES scenarios. The complete set of indices is made available via the ETCCDI indices archive to encourage further studies on the various aspects of changes in extremes.

  6. Detection of quasiresonant amplification of planetary waves and their connection to northern hemisphere summer heat extremes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kornhuber, Kai; Coumou, Dim; Petri, Stefan; Petoukhov, Vladimir

    2014-05-01

    Several recent northern hemisphere (NH) summer heat extremes have been linked to anomalous patterns of mid-latitudinal planetary waves , e.g. the European heat wave in 2003, the Russian Heat wave and Pakistani floods in 2010 and the US heat wave in 2011(Lau and Kim 2012, Black et al 2004, Petoukhov et al 2013). The NH large-scale circulation patterns in those years were characterized by persistent longitudinal planetary-scale high-amplitude waves of relative high wavenumber (6-8). A common mechanism that could lead to the observed high-amplitude planetary waves was proposed by Petukhov et al. (Petukhov et al 2013). Under certain conditions, free synoptic waves can be 'trapped' in a midlatitudinal waveguide while their amplitudes are amplified by a quasiresonant response to thermal and orographic forcing. We have searched the available reanalysis data for the emergence of waveguides for particular planetary waves and will present preliminary results of this analysis. Using spectral analysis, we quantify the planetary wave field in terms of wavenumber, amplitude, phase and eastward phase-propagation. We will present statistics of these wave quantities for periods with and without waveguides. With those conditions explicitly implemented in code we should be able to detect and point out the periods in time the requirements for amplification were met. By doing so the connection of actual summer month heat extremes to quasiresonance events can be assessed statistically. Black E., Blackburn M., Hoskins B. and Methven J.; 2004: Factors contributing to the summer 2003 European heatwave 217-23 Lau W. K. M. and Kim K.-M.; 2012: The 2010 Pakistan Flood and Russian Heat Wave: Teleconnection of Hydrometeorological Extremes J. Hydrometeorol. 13 392-403 Online: http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JHM-D-11-016.1 Petoukhov V., Rahmstorf S., Petri S. and Schellnhuber H .J.;2013: Quasi-resonant amplification of atmospheric planetary waves as a mechanism for recent Northern

  7. Strategies to reduce the harmful effects of extreme heat events: a four-city study.

    PubMed

    White-Newsome, Jalonne L; McCormick, Sabrina; Sampson, Natalie; Buxton, Miatta A; O'Neill, Marie S; Gronlund, Carina J; Catalano, Linda; Conlon, Kathryn C; Parker, Edith A

    2014-02-13

    Extreme heat events (EHEs) are becoming more intense, more frequent and longer lasting in the 21st century. These events can disproportionately impact the health of low-income, minority, and urban populations. To better understand heat-related intervention strategies used by four U.S. cities, we conducted 73 semi-structured interviews with government and non-governmental organization leaders representing public health, general social services, emergency management, meteorology, and the environmental planning sectors in Detroit, MI; New York City, NY; Philadelphia, PA and Phoenix, AZ-cities selected for their diverse demographics, climates, and climate adaptation strategies. We identified activities these leaders used to reduce the harmful effects of heat for residents in their city, as well as the obstacles they faced and the approaches they used to evaluate these efforts. Local leaders provided a description of how local context (e.g., climate, governance and city structure) impacted heat preparedness. Despite the differences among study cities, political will and resource access were critical to driving heat-health related programming. Upon completion of our interviews, we convened leaders in each city to discuss these findings and their ongoing efforts through day-long workshops. Our findings and the recommendations that emerged from these workshops could inform other local or national efforts towards preventing heat-related morbidity and mortality.

  8. Strategies to reduce the harmful effects of extreme heat events: a four-city study.

    PubMed

    White-Newsome, Jalonne L; McCormick, Sabrina; Sampson, Natalie; Buxton, Miatta A; O'Neill, Marie S; Gronlund, Carina J; Catalano, Linda; Conlon, Kathryn C; Parker, Edith A

    2014-02-01

    Extreme heat events (EHEs) are becoming more intense, more frequent and longer lasting in the 21st century. These events can disproportionately impact the health of low-income, minority, and urban populations. To better understand heat-related intervention strategies used by four U.S. cities, we conducted 73 semi-structured interviews with government and non-governmental organization leaders representing public health, general social services, emergency management, meteorology, and the environmental planning sectors in Detroit, MI; New York City, NY; Philadelphia, PA and Phoenix, AZ-cities selected for their diverse demographics, climates, and climate adaptation strategies. We identified activities these leaders used to reduce the harmful effects of heat for residents in their city, as well as the obstacles they faced and the approaches they used to evaluate these efforts. Local leaders provided a description of how local context (e.g., climate, governance and city structure) impacted heat preparedness. Despite the differences among study cities, political will and resource access were critical to driving heat-health related programming. Upon completion of our interviews, we convened leaders in each city to discuss these findings and their ongoing efforts through day-long workshops. Our findings and the recommendations that emerged from these workshops could inform other local or national efforts towards preventing heat-related morbidity and mortality. PMID:24531122

  9. Strategies to Reduce the Harmful Effects of Extreme Heat Events: A Four-City Study

    PubMed Central

    White-Newsome, Jalonne L.; McCormick, Sabrina; Sampson, Natalie; Buxton, Miatta A.; O’Neill, Marie S.; Gronlund, Carina J.; Catalano, Linda; Conlon, Kathryn C.; Parker, Edith A.

    2014-01-01

    Extreme heat events (EHEs) are becoming more intense, more frequent and longer lasting in the 21st century. These events can disproportionately impact the health of low-income, minority, and urban populations. To better understand heat-related intervention strategies used by four U.S. cities, we conducted 73 semi-structured interviews with government and non-governmental organization leaders representing public health, general social services, emergency management, meteorology, and the environmental planning sectors in Detroit, MI; New York City, NY; Philadelphia, PA and Phoenix, AZ—cities selected for their diverse demographics, climates, and climate adaptation strategies. We identified activities these leaders used to reduce the harmful effects of heat for residents in their city, as well as the obstacles they faced and the approaches they used to evaluate these efforts. Local leaders provided a description of how local context (e.g., climate, governance and city structure) impacted heat preparedness. Despite the differences among study cities, political will and resource access were critical to driving heat-health related programming. Upon completion of our interviews, we convened leaders in each city to discuss these findings and their ongoing efforts through day-long workshops. Our findings and the recommendations that emerged from these workshops could inform other local or national efforts towards preventing heat-related morbidity and mortality. PMID:24531122

  10. Avian thermoregulation in the heat: efficient evaporative cooling allows for extreme heat tolerance in four southern hemisphere columbids.

    PubMed

    McKechnie, Andrew E; Whitfield, Maxine C; Smit, Ben; Gerson, Alexander R; Smith, Eric Krabbe; Talbot, William A; McWhorter, Todd J; Wolf, Blair O

    2016-07-15

    Birds show phylogenetic variation in the relative importance of respiratory versus cutaneous evaporation, but the consequences for heat tolerance and evaporative cooling capacity remain unclear. We measured evaporative water loss (EWL), resting metabolic rate (RMR) and body temperature (Tb) in four arid-zone columbids from southern Africa [Namaqua dove (Oena capensis, ∼37 g), laughing dove (Spilopelia senegalensis, ∼89 g) and Cape turtle dove (Streptopelia capicola, ∼148 g)] and Australia [crested pigeon (Ocyphaps lophotes), ∼186 g] at air temperatures (Ta) of up to 62°C. There was no clear relationship between body mass and maximum Ta tolerated during acute heat exposure. Maximum Tb at very high Ta was 43.1±1.0, 43.7±0.8, 44.7±0.3 and 44.3±0.8°C in Namaqua doves, laughing doves, Cape turtle doves and crested pigeons, respectively. In all four species, RMR increased significantly at Ta above thermoneutrality, but the increases were relatively modest with RMR at Ta=56°C being 32, 60, 99 and 11% higher, respectively, than at Ta=35°C. At the highest Ta values reached, evaporative heat loss was equivalent to 466, 227, 230 and 275% of metabolic heat production. The maximum ratio of evaporative heat loss to metabolic production observed in Namaqua doves, 4.66, exceeds by a substantial margin previous values reported for birds. Our results support the notion that cutaneous evaporation provides a highly efficient mechanism of heat dissipation and an enhanced ability to tolerate extremely high Ta. PMID:27207640

  11. Elevated CO2 enhances leaf senescence during extreme heat and drought in a temperate forest

    SciTech Connect

    Warren, Jeffrey; Norby, Richard J; Wullschleger, Stan D

    2011-01-01

    In 2007, an extreme drought and acute heat wave damaged ecosystems across the southeastern US, including a 19-year-old Liquidambar styraciflua L. (sweetgum) tree plantation exposed to long-term elevated CO2 treatments. Stem sap velocities in trees exposed to ambient (A) or elevated (E) CO2 were analyzed to assess potential interactions between CO2 and these weather extremes. Leaf temperature (Tleaf) and net carbon uptake (GPP) were modeled based on patterns of sap velocity to estimate indirect impacts of CO2-reduced transpiration on premature leaf senescence. Elevated CO2 reduced sap flow by 28% during early summer, and by up to 45% late in the drought during record-setting high air temperatures. Canopy transpiration and conductance declined more rapidly in ECO2 plots, resulting in ECO2 Tleaf up to 45 C, which was 1-2 C greater than ACO2 Tleaf. Pre-drought GPP was ~7% greater in ECO2 plots, then declined to 30% less than ACO2 GPP as the drought progressed. Leaf abscission peaked during this period, and was 30% greater for ECO2 trees. While ECO2 can reduce leaf-level water use under droughty conditions, acute drought or heat conditions may induce excessive stomatal closure that could offset benefits of ECO2 to temperate forest species during extreme weather events.

  12. Investigation of Loop Heat Pipe Survival and Restart After Extreme Cold Environment Exposure

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Golliher, Eric; Ku, Jentung; Licari, Anthony; Sanzi, James

    2010-01-01

    NASA plans human exploration near the South Pole of the Moon, and other locations where the environment is extremely cold. This paper reports on the heat transfer performance of a loop heat pipe (LHP) exposed to extreme cold under the simulated reduced gravitational environment of the Moon. A common method of spacecraft thermal control is to use a LHP with ammonia working fluid. Typically, a small amount of heat is provided either by electrical heaters or by environmental design, such that the LHP condenser temperature never drops below the freezing point of ammonia. The concern is that a liquid-filled, frozen condenser would not restart, or that a thawing condenser would damage the tubing due to the expansion of ammonia upon thawing. This paper reports the results of an experimental investigation of a novel approach to avoid these problems. The LHP compensation chamber (CC) is conditioned such that all the ammonia liquid is removed from the condenser and the LHP is nonoperating. The condenser temperature is then reduced to below that of the ammonia freezing point. The LHP is then successfully restarted.

  13. Acquired thermotolerance and heat shock in the extremely thermophilic archaebacterium Sulfolobus sp. strain B12

    SciTech Connect

    Trent, J.D.; Osipiuk, J.; Pinkau, T. )

    1990-03-01

    The extreme thermophile Sulfolobus sp. strain B12 exhibits an acquired thermotolerance response. Thus, survival of cells from a 70{degrees}C culture at the lethal temperature of 92{degrees}C was enhanced by as much as 6 orders of magnitude over a 2-h period if the culture was preheated to 88{degrees}C for 60 min or longer before being exposed to the lethal temperature. In eubacteria and eucaryotes, acquired thermotolerance correlates with the induced synthesis of a dozen or so proteins known as heat shock proteins. In this Sulfolobus species, it correlates with the preferential synthesis of primarily one major protein (55 kilodaltons) and, to a much lesser extent, two minor proteins (28 and 35 kilodaltons). Since the synthesis of all other proteins was radically reduced and these proteins were apparently not degraded or exported, their relative abundance within the cell increased during the time the cells were becoming thermotolerant. They could not yet be related to known heat shock proteins. In immunoassays, they were not cross-reactive with antibodies against heat shock proteins from Escherichia coli (DnaK and GroE), which are highly conserved between eubacteria and eucaryotes. However, it appears that if acquired thermotolerance depends on the synthesis of protective proteins, then in this extremely thermophilic archaebacterium it depends primarily on one protein.

  14. Use of heat to estimate streambed fluxes during extreme hydrologic events

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Barlow, J.R.B.; Coupe, R.H.

    2009-01-01

    Using heat as a tracer, quantitative estimates of streambed fluxes and the critical stage for flow reversal were calculated for high-flow events that occurred on the Bogue Phalia (a tributary of the Mississippi River) following the 2005 Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. In June 2005, piezometers were installed in the Bogue Phalia upstream from the stream gage near Leland, Mississippi, to monitor temperature. Even with the hurricanes, precipitation in the Bogue Phalia Basin for the months of June to October 2005 was below normal, and consequently, streamflow was below the long-term average. Temperature profiles from the piezometers indicate that the Bogue Phalia was a gaining stream during most of this time, but relatively static streambed temperatures suggested long-term data was warranted for heat-based estimates of flux. However, the hurricanes caused a pair of sharp rises in stream stage over short periods of time, increasing the potential for rapid heat-based modeling and for identification of the critical stage for flow reversal into the streambed. Heat-based modeling fits of simulated-to-measured sediment temperatures show that once a critical stage was surpassed, flow direction reversed into the streambed. Results of this study demonstrate the ability to constrain estimates of streambed water flux and the critical stage of flow reversal, with little available groundwater head data, by using heat as a tracer during extreme stage events. copyright. Published in 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

  15. Detection of Historical and Future Precipitation Variations and Extremes Over the Continental United States

    SciTech Connect

    Anderson, Bruce T.

    2015-12-11

    through a change in the underlying climate. As such, this method is capable of detecting “hot spot” regions—as well as “flare ups” within the hot spot regions—that have experienced interannual to multi-decadal scale variations and trends in seasonal-mean precipitation and extreme events. Further by applying the same methods to numerical climate models we can discern the fidelity of the current-generation climate models in representing detectability within the observed climate system. In this way, we can objectively determine the utility of these model systems for performing detection studies of historical and future climate change.

  16. Lysosomal responses to heat-shock of seasonal temperature extremes in Cd-exposed mussels.

    PubMed

    Múgica, M; Izagirre, U; Marigómez, I

    2015-07-01

    The present study was aimed at determining the effect of temperature extremes on lysosomal biomarkers in mussels exposed to a model toxic pollutant (Cd) at different seasons. For this purpose, temperature was elevated 10°C (from 12°C to 22°C in winter and from 18°C to 28°C in summer) for a period of 6h (heat-shock) in control and Cd-exposed mussels, and then returned back to initial one. Lysosomal membrane stability and lysosomal structural changes in digestive gland were investigated. In winter, heat-shock reduced the labilisation period (LP) of the lysosomal membrane, especially in Cd-exposed mussels, and provoked transient lysosomal enlargement. LP values recovered after the heat-shock cessation but lysosomal enlargement prevailed in both experimental groups. In summer, heat-shock induced remarkable reduction in LP and lysosomal enlargement (more markedly in Cd-exposed mussels), which recovered within 3 days. Besides, whilst heat-shock effects on LP were practically identical for Cd-exposed mussels in winter and summer, the effects were longer-lasting in summer than in winter for control mussels. Thus, lysosomal responsiveness after heat-shock was higher in summer than in winter but recovery was faster as well, and therefore the consequences of the heat shock seem to be more decisive in winter. In contrast, inter-season differences were attenuated in the presence of Cd. Consequently, mussels seem to be better prepared in summer than in winter to stand short periods of abrupt temperature change; this is, however, compromised when mussels are exposed to pollutants such as Cd.

  17. The 2010 Pakistan Flood and the Russia Heat Wave: Teleconnection of Extremes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lau, William K.; Kim, K. M.

    2010-01-01

    The Pakistan flood and the Russia heat wave/Vvild fires of the summer of2010 were two of the most extreme, and catastrophic events in the histories of the two countries occurring at about the same time. To a casual observer, the timing may just be a random coincidence of nature, because the two events were separated by long distances, and represented opposite forces of nature, i.e., flood vs. drought, and water vs. fire. In this paper, using NASA satellite and NOAA reanalysis data, we presented observation evidences that that the two events were indeed physically connected.

  18. Future changes in daily summer temperature variability: Driving processes and its role for temperature extremes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fischer, E. M.; Schär, C.

    2008-12-01

    Anthropogenic greenhouse gases are expected to lead to more frequent and intense summer temperature extremes not only due to mean warming itself but also due to changes in temperature variability. To test this hypothesis, we analyze daily output of the ENSEMBLES and PRUDENCE regional climate multi-model ensemble projects. These two recent European multi-model scenario experiments provide a large number of simulations based on different combinations of GCMs and 10 RCMs, which allow for a careful inter-model comparison and a better quantification of projection uncertainties. All models project more frequent temperature extremes particularly over the Mediterranean and central Europe. The fact that the projected warming of the uppermost percentiles of daily summer temperatures is largest over France (strongest variability increase) and not over the (strongest mean warming) suggests an important role of daily variability changes. Such changes in daily temperature variability may arise from changes in (1) interannual temperature variability, (2) intraseasonal variability, and (3) the seasonal cycle. We present a methodology to decompose the total daily variability into these three components. Over central Europe and depending upon the RCM, the total daily summer temperature variability is projected to increase by 20-40% as a result of increases in all three components: interannual variability (+30-95%), seasonal variability (+35-105%), and intraseasonal variability (+10-30%). Changes in northern and southern Europe are substantially smaller. Over central Europe the models simulate a progressive warming within the summer season, with the projected temperature change in August exceeding that in June by 2--3K. Thus, the most distinct warming is superimposed upon the maximum of the seasonal cycle, leading to a higher intensity of extremes and an extension of the summer period (enabling extreme temperatures and heat waves even in September). Analyses of the underlying

  19. Future changes in daily summer temperature variability: driving processes and role for temperature extremes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fischer, Erich M.; Schär, Christoph

    2009-12-01

    Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are expected to lead to more frequent and intense summer temperature extremes, not only due to the mean warming itself, but also due to changes in temperature variability. To test this hypothesis, we analyse daily output of ten PRUDENCE regional climate model scenarios over Europe for the 2071-2100 period. The models project more frequent temperature extremes particularly over the Mediterranean and the transitional climate zone (TCZ, between the Mediterranean to the south and the Baltic Sea to the north). The projected warming of the uppermost percentiles of daily summer temperatures is found to be largest over France (in the region of maximum variability increase) rather than the Mediterranean (where the mean warming is largest). The underlying changes in temperature variability may arise from changes in (1) interannual temperature variability, (2) intraseasonal variability, and (3) the seasonal cycle. We present a methodology to decompose the total daily variability into these three components. Over France and depending upon the model, the total daily summer temperature variability is projected to significantly increase by 20-40% as a result of increases in all three components: interannual variability (30-95%), seasonal variability (35-105%), and intraseasonal variability (10-30%). Variability changes in northern and southern Europe are substantially smaller. Over France and parts of the TCZ, the models simulate a progressive warming within the summer season (corresponding to an increase in seasonal variability), with the projected temperature change in August exceeding that in June by 2-3 K. Thus, the most distinct warming is superimposed upon the maximum of the current seasonal cycle, leading to a higher intensity of extremes and an extension of the summer period (enabling extreme temperatures and heat waves even in September). The processes driving the variability changes are different for the three components but

  20. Extreme Temperature and Rainfall Events, their Changes and Future Projections in India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dash, S. K.

    2014-12-01

    India has unique geographical location and the country spreads over a large area. The southwest and northeast monsoons are the most important quasi permanent systems which dominate the weathers in this part of the world. The summer monsoon rainfall during the months June to September has a large temporal as well as spatial variability. The surface air temperature has also a large temporal and spatial variability. For suitable scientific analysis, the whole country can be divided into several homogeneous rainfall and temperature zones. Some of the extreme weather events occurring in the country include land slides, cold wave conditions, flash floods, cyclones, heat wave conditions, floods, droughts and heavy precipitation. In the context of climate change, in addition to these extreme cases, it is important to examine all the weather events above their respective threshold levels in terms of frequencies of occurrences. Results of this study show that the atmospheric surface temperature has enhanced in all the homogeneous regions of India with a maximum value of about 10C during winter and post-monsoon months. There is a significant seasonal asymmetry in the temperature rise. Also extreme temperature events of different types have enhanced over all the regions. It is found that the total precipitation during the summer monsoon months of June to September does not show any statistically significant trend. However, the numbers of short spell high intensity rain events and dry spells have increased in the last half century. Long spell rain events, on the other hand, show decreasing trend. The decrease in the number of long spell rain events associated with similar tendencies in the number of monsoon depressions, the mean monsoon wind and its shears over India suggests that the Indian summer monsoon circulation might be weakening. This talk will also attempt to describe the changes in temperature and rainfall extremes and their projections at some selected locations in

  1. Climate extremes in urban area and their impact on human health: the summer heat waves

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baldi, Marina

    2014-05-01

    In the period 1951-2012 the average global land and ocean temperature has increased by approximately 0.72°C [0.49-0.89] when described by a linear trend, and is projected to rapidly increase. Each of the past three decades has been warmer than all the previous decades, with the decade of the 2000's as the warmest, and, since 1880, nine of the ten warmest years are in the 21st century, the only exception being 1998, which was warmed by the strongest El Niño event of the past century. In parallel an increase in the frequency and intensity of extremely hot days is detected with differences at different scales, which represent an health risk specially in largely populated areas as documented for several regions in the world including the Euro-Mediterranean region. If it is still under discussion if heat wave episodes are a direct result of the warming of the lower troposphere, or if, more likely, they are a regional climate event, however heat episodes have been studied in order to define their correlation with large scale atmospheric patterns and with changes in the regional circulation. Whatever the causes and the spatio-temporal extension of the episodes, epidemiological studies show that these conditions pose increasing health risks inducing heat-related diseases including hyperthermia and heat stress, cardiovascular and respiratory illnesses in susceptible individuals with a significant increase in morbidity and mortality especially in densely populated urban areas. In several Mediterranean cities peaks of mortality associated with extremely high temperature (with simultaneous high humidity levels) have been documented showing that, in some cases, a large increase in daily mortality has been reached compared to the average for the period. The number of fatalities during the summer 2003 heat wave in Europe was estimated to largely exceed the average value of some between 22000 and 50000 cases. In the same summer it was also unusually hot across much of Asia, and

  2. Design of an extreme ultraviolet spectrometer suite to characterize rapidly heated solid matter

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ivancic, S. T.; Stillman, C. R.; Nelson, D.; Begishev, I. A.; Mileham, C.; Nilson, P. M.; Froula, D. H.

    2016-11-01

    An ultrafast streaked extreme-ultraviolet (XUV) spectrometer (5-20 nm) was developed to measure the temperature dynamics in rapidly heated samples. Rapid heating makes it possible to create exotic states of matter that can be probed during their inertial confinement time—tens of picoseconds in the case of micron-sized targets. In contrast to other forms of pyrometry, where the temperature is inferred from bulk x-ray emission, XUV emission is restricted to the sample surface, allowing for a temperature measurement at the material-vacuum interface. The surface-temperature measurement constrains models for the release of high-energy-density material. Coupling the XUV spectrometer to an ultrafast (<2-ps) streak camera provided picosecond-time scale evolution of the surface-layer emission. Two high-throughput XUV spectrometers were designed to simultaneously measure the time-resolved and absolute XUV emission.

  3. Survival of the fittest: overcoming oxidative stress at the extremes of Acid, heat and metal.

    PubMed

    Maezato, Yukari; Blum, Paul

    2012-01-01

    The habitat of metal respiring acidothermophilic lithoautotrophs is perhaps the most oxidizing environment yet identified. Geothermal heat, sulfuric acid and transition metals contribute both individually and synergistically under aerobic conditions to create this niche. Sulfuric acid and metals originating from sulfidic ores catalyze oxidative reactions attacking microbial cell surfaces including lipids, proteins and glycosyl groups. Sulfuric acid also promotes hydrocarbon dehydration contributing to the formation of black "burnt" carbon. Oxidative reactions leading to abstraction of electrons is further impacted by heat through an increase in the proportion of reactant molecules with sufficient energy to react. Collectively these factors and particularly those related to metals must be overcome by thermoacidophilic lithoautotrophs in order for them to survive and proliferate. The necessary mechanisms to achieve this goal are largely unknown however mechanistics insights have been gained through genomic studies. This review focuses on the specific role of metals in this extreme environment with an emphasis on resistance mechanisms in Archaea. PMID:25371104

  4. Survival of the Fittest: Overcoming Oxidative Stress at the Extremes of Acid, Heat and Metal

    PubMed Central

    Maezato, Yukari; Blum, Paul

    2012-01-01

    The habitat of metal respiring acidothermophilic lithoautotrophs is perhaps the most oxidizing environment yet identified. Geothermal heat, sulfuric acid and transition metals contribute both individually and synergistically under aerobic conditions to create this niche. Sulfuric acid and metals originating from sulfidic ores catalyze oxidative reactions attacking microbial cell surfaces including lipids, proteins and glycosyl groups. Sulfuric acid also promotes hydrocarbon dehydration contributing to the formation of black “burnt” carbon. Oxidative reactions leading to abstraction of electrons is further impacted by heat through an increase in the proportion of reactant molecules with sufficient energy to react. Collectively these factors and particularly those related to metals must be overcome by thermoacidophilic lithoautotrophs in order for them to survive and proliferate. The necessary mechanisms to achieve this goal are largely unknown however mechanistics insights have been gained through genomic studies. This review focuses on the specific role of metals in this extreme environment with an emphasis on resistance mechanisms in Archaea. PMID:25371104

  5. Heat-shield for Extreme Entry Environment Technology (HEEET) Development Status

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Venkatapathy, Ethiraj; Ellerby, Don; Gage, Peter

    2016-01-01

    The Heat shield for Extreme Entry Environment Technology (HEEET) Project is a NASA STMD and SMD co-funded effort. The goal is to develop and mission infuse a new ablative Thermal Protection System that can withstand extreme entry. It is targeted to support NASA's high priority missions, as defined in the latest decadal survey, to destinations such as Venus and Saturn in-situ robotic science missions. Entry into these planetary atmospheres results in extreme heating. The entry peak heat-flux and associated pressure are estimated to be between one and two orders of magnitude higher than those experienced by Mars Science Laboratory or Lunar return missions. In the recent New Frontiers community announcement NASA has indicated that it is considering providing an increase to the PI managed mission cost (PIMMC) for investigations utilizing the Heat Shield for Extreme Entry Environment Technology (HEEET) and in addition, NASA is considering limiting the risk assessment to only their accommodation on the spacecraft and the mission environment. The HEEET ablative TPS utilizes 3D weaving technology to manufacture a dual layer material architecture. The 3-D weaving allows for flat panels to be woven. The dual layer consists of a top layer designed to withstand the extreme external environment while the inner or insulating layer by design, is designed to achieve low thermal conductivity, and it keeps the heat from conducting towards the structure underneath. Both arc jet testing combined with material properties have been used to develop thermal response models that allows for comparison of performance with heritage carbon phenolic. A 50% mass efficiency is achieved by the dual layer construct compared to carbon phenolic for a broad range of missions both to Saturn and Venus. The 3-D woven flat preforms are molded to achieve the shape as they are compliant and then resin infusion with curing forms a rigid panels. These panels are then bonded on to the aeroshell structure. Gaps

  6. Experimental Realization of Extreme Heat Flux Concentration with Easy-to-Make Thermal Metamaterials.

    PubMed

    Chen, Fei; Lei, Dang Yuan

    2015-06-25

    The ability to harvest thermal energy and manipulate heat fluxes has recently attracted a great deal of research interest because this is critical to achieve efficient solar-to-thermal energy conversion in the technology of concentrated solar thermal collectors. Thermal metamaterials with engineered thermal conduction are often utilized to control the diffusive heat flow in ways otherwise not possible with naturally occurring materials. In this work, we adopt the transformation thermodynamics approach to design an annular fan-shaped thermal metamaterial which is capable of guiding heat fluxes and concentrating thermal energy to the central region of the metamaterial device without disturbing the temperature profile outside the structure--a fascinating and unique feature impossibly achieved with homogeneous materials. In experiment, this rationally-designed metamaterial structure demonstrates extreme heat flux compression from both line-shaped and point thermal sources with measured concentration efficiency up to 83.1%, providing the first experimental realization of our recent theoretical prediction (T. Han et al., Energy Environ. Sci., 2013, 6, 3537-3541). These unprecedented results may open up new possibilities for engineering thermal materials with desired properties that can be used for dramatically enhancing the efficiency of the existing solar thermal collectors.

  7. Experimental Realization of Extreme Heat Flux Concentration with Easy-to-Make Thermal Metamaterials

    PubMed Central

    Chen, Fei; Yuan Lei, Dang

    2015-01-01

    The ability to harvest thermal energy and manipulate heat fluxes has recently attracted a great deal of research interest because this is critical to achieve efficient solar-to-thermal energy conversion in the technology of concentrated solar thermal collectors. Thermal metamaterials with engineered thermal conduction are often utilized to control the diffusive heat flow in ways otherwise not possible with naturally occurring materials. In this work, we adopt the transformation thermodynamics approach to design an annular fan-shaped thermal metamaterial which is capable of guiding heat fluxes and concentrating thermal energy to the central region of the metamaterial device without disturbing the temperature profile outside the structure – a fascinating and unique feature impossibly achieved with homogeneous materials. In experiment, this rationally-designed metamaterial structure demonstrates extreme heat flux compression from both line-shaped and point thermal sources with measured concentration efficiency up to 83.1%, providing the first experimental realization of our recent theoretical prediction (T. Han et al., Energy Environ. Sci., 2013, 6, 3537-3541). These unprecedented results may open up new possibilities for engineering thermal materials with desired properties that can be used for dramatically enhancing the efficiency of the existing solar thermal collectors. PMID:26109080

  8. Future directions in two-phase flow and heat transfer in space

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bankoff, S. George

    1994-01-01

    Some areas of opportunity for future research in microgravity two-phase flow and heat transfer are pointed out. These satisfy the dual requirements of relevance to current and future needs, and scientific/engineering interest.

  9. Detecting changes in future precipitation extremes over eight river basins in China using RegCM4 downscaling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Qin, Peihua; Xie, Zhenghui

    2016-06-01

    To detect the frequency and intensity of precipitation extremes in China for the middle 21st century, simulations were conducted with the regional climate model RegCM4 forced by the global climate model GFDL_ESM2M under the middle emission scenario (RCP4.5). Compared with observed precipitation extremes for the reference period from 1982 to 2001, RegCM4 generally performed better in most river basins of China relative to GFDL. In the future period 2032-2051, more wet extremes will occur relative to the present period in most study areas, especially in southeast China while significantly less dry extremes will occur in arid and semiarid areas in northwest China. In contrast, areas in northwest China showed an increase in the trend of dry extremes (CDD) and a decrease in the trend of wet extremes (R95p and Rx5day), which might result in more drought in the future. Finally, we discuss in detail the possible reason of these processes, such as zonal wind, vertical wind, and water vapor. In the Huaihe river basin (HU), reduced south winds in summer (June-August) and a decrease of the upward vertical p velocity cause less future precipitation and might lead to changes of extreme events. We also completed correlation analysis between the precipitation extreme indices and the climate factors and found that the precipitation extremes were more sensitive to the annual and seasonal mean precipitation, total water vapor, and upward vertical wind relative to the geopotential height and 2 m temperature over most river basins in China. Perhaps the changes of some wet extremes could be verified partly through changes of annual precipitation due to their high consistence.

  10. Climate Change and Health Risks from Extreme Heat and Air Pollution in the Eastern United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Limaye, V.; Vargo, J.; Harkey, M.; Holloway, T.; Meier, P.; Patz, J.

    2013-12-01

    Climate change is expected to exacerbate health risks from exposure to extreme heat and air pollution through both direct and indirect mechanisms. Directly, warmer ambient temperatures promote biogenic emissions of ozone precursors and favor the formation of ground-level ozone, while an anticipated increase in the frequency of stagnant air masses will allow fine particulates to accumulate. Indirectly, warmer summertime temperatures stimulate energy demand and exacerbate polluting emissions from the electricity sector. Thus, while technological adaptations such as air conditioning can reduce risks from exposures to extreme heat, they can trigger downstream damage to air quality and public health. Through an interdisciplinary modeling effort, we quantify the impacts of climate change on ambient temperatures, summer energy demand, air quality, and public health. The first phase of this work explores how climate change will directly impact the burden of heat-related mortality. Climatic patterns, demographic trends, and epidemiologic risk models suggest that populations in the eastern United States are likely to experience an increasing heat stress mortality burden in response to rising summertime air temperatures. We use North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program modeling data to estimate mid-century 2-meter air temperatures and humidity across the eastern US from June-August, and quantify how long-term changes in actual and apparent temperatures from present-day will affect the annual burden of heat-related mortality across this region. With the US Environmental Protection Agency's Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program, we estimate health risks using concentration-response functions, which relate temperature increases to changes in annual mortality rates. We compare mid-century summertime temperature data, downscaled using the Weather Research and Forecasting model, to 2007 baseline temperatures at a 12 km resolution in order to estimate

  11. Differences between Changes in Extreme and Mean Sea Levels and Planning Allowances for Coastal Protection for the Extremes of the Future

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Woodworth, Philip; Hunter, John; Antony, Charls; Unnikrishnan, Alakkat

    2016-04-01

    Previous studies of changes in extreme sea levels around the world during the past few decades have shown that they largely parallel those in mean sea levels, although with some exceptions at individual stations or in particular regions. In the present study, we have used a much larger data set of high-frequency sea level data from a global set of tide gauges in order to investigate the reasons for the exceptions in greater detail, including the role of the major modes of climate variability. The global data set is called GESLA-2 (Global Extreme Sea Level Analysis Version 2) which contains major improvements over the earlier GESLA-1 version (Menendez and Woodworth, JGR 2010) A special study of extreme sea levels is performed using data from India which, for various reasons, are not included in GESLA-2. In addition, the much larger temporal and spatial coverage of GESLA-2 is used to further update the coastal 'allowances' for future sea level rise presented by Hunter et al. (Ocean Engineering 2013), and updated in the IPCC AR5, in which guidelines are given for raising coastal defences for a given scenario of future sea level rise at stations where the climatology of extreme sea levels is known.

  12. California heat waves in the present and future

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gershunov, Alexander; Guirguis, Kristen

    2012-09-01

    Current and projected heat waves are examined over California and its sub-regions in observations and downscaled global climate model (GCM) simulations. California heat wave activity falls into two distinct types: (1) typically dry daytime heat waves and (2) humid nighttime-accentuated events (Type I and Type II, respectively). The four GCMs considered project Type II heat waves to intensify more with climate change than the historically characteristic Type I events, although both types are projected to increase. This trend is already clearly observed and simulated to various degrees over all sub-regions of California. Part of the intensification in heat wave activity is due directly to mean warming. However, when one considers non-stationarity in daily temperature variance, desert heat waves are expected to become progressively and relatively less intense while coastal heat waves are projected to intensify even relative to the background warming. This result generally holds for both types of heat waves across models. Given the high coastal population density and low acclimatization to heat, especially humid heat, this trend bodes ill for coastal communities, jeopardizing public health and stressing energy resources.

  13. Spatial impacts of heat waves in mortality. Evaluating current risks and future threats

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Andrade, H.; Canario, P.; Nogueira, H.

    2009-09-01

    Impacts of heat waves in morbidity and mortality are largely known. Climate Change is expected to increase the climate health impacts in summer while the winter will be probably favored. The health impacts of extreme thermal events are mainly studied at a national or regional level, considering macro or mesoscale thermal features. But it can be assumed that local variations in mortality must exist, associated, in one hand, with local climatic differences, due to features such as land use and urbanization and, in other hand, with vulnerability factors (depending on demographic and socioeconomic characteristics of populations). A model of hazard - vulnerability - risk was developed, to analyze the spatial variations of mortality in extreme thermal events, at the level of city district, in the Lisbon metropolitan area (Portugal). In that model, risk is considered as the product of hazard and vulnerability. Daily mortality data by sex, age and cause of death was supplied by the Health National Authority. The research is yet on-going. In our model, hazard is represented mainly by temperature and air pollution (the influence of other atmospheric variables that affect the human energy balance, such as solar radiation and wind speed should be tested too). Small scale variation of meteorological features, in extreme thermal events, were simulated with a Regional Atmospheric Model (Brazilian Regional Atmospheric Modeling System) and the results were validated and calibrated using observation data from an urban network of termo-higrometers placed in sites with different urban characteristics. Vulnerability is a result on personal sensitivity and exposure. Personal sensitivity is assessed considering individual constitutional and demographic factors as well as socio, cultural and economic variables. Daily mobility determines the population exposure to heat. Since many of these variables are redundant, a set of indicators, including a multiple deprivation index, was used. A

  14. The 2010 Pakistan Flood and Russian Heat Wave: Teleconnection of Hydrometeorological Extremes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lau, William K. M.; Kim, Kyu-Myong

    2012-01-01

    In this paper, preliminary results are presented showing that the two record-setting extreme events during 2010 summer (i.e., the Russian heat wave-wildfires and Pakistan flood) were physically connected. It is found that the Russian heat wave was associated with the development of an extraordinarily strong and prolonged extratropical atmospheric blocking event in association with the excitation of a large-scale atmospheric Rossby wave train spanning western Russia, Kazakhstan, and the northwestern China-Tibetan Plateau region. The southward penetration of upper-level vorticity perturbations in the leading trough of the Rossby wave was instrumental in triggering anomalously heavy rain events over northern Pakistan and vicinity in mid- to late July. Also shown are evidences that the Russian heat wave was amplified by a positive feedback through changes in surface energy fluxes between the atmospheric blocking pattern and an underlying extensive land region with below-normal soil moisture. The Pakistan heavy rain events were amplified and sustained by strong anomalous southeasterly flow along the Himalayan foothills and abundant moisture transport from the Bay of Bengal in connection with the northward propagation of the monsoonal intraseasonal oscillation.

  15. Facing the Future: Effects of Short-Term Climate Extremes on Isoprene-Emitting and Nonemitting Poplar.

    PubMed

    Vanzo, Elisa; Jud, Werner; Li, Ziru; Albert, Andreas; Domagalska, Malgorzata A; Ghirardo, Andrea; Niederbacher, Bishu; Frenzel, Juliane; Beemster, Gerrit T S; Asard, Han; Rennenberg, Heinz; Sharkey, Thomas D; Hansel, Armin; Schnitzler, Jörg-Peter

    2015-09-01

    Isoprene emissions from poplar (Populus spp.) plantations can influence atmospheric chemistry and regional climate. These emissions respond strongly to temperature, [CO2], and drought, but the superimposed effect of these three climate change factors are, for the most part, unknown. Performing predicted climate change scenario simulations (periodic and chronic heat and drought spells [HDSs] applied under elevated [CO2]), we analyzed volatile organic compound emissions, photosynthetic performance, leaf growth, and overall carbon (C) gain of poplar genotypes emitting (IE) and nonemitting (NE) isoprene. We aimed (1) to evaluate the proposed beneficial effect of isoprene emission on plant stress mitigation and recovery capacity and (2) to estimate the cumulative net C gain under the projected future climate. During HDSs, the chloroplastidic electron transport rate of NE plants became impaired, while IE plants maintained high values similar to unstressed controls. During recovery from HDS episodes, IE plants reached higher daily net CO2 assimilation rates compared with NE genotypes. Irrespective of the genotype, plants undergoing chronic HDSs showed the lowest cumulative C gain. Under control conditions simulating ambient [CO2], the C gain was lower in the IE plants than in the NE plants. In summary, the data on the overall C gain and plant growth suggest that the beneficial function of isoprene emission in poplar might be of minor importance to mitigate predicted short-term climate extremes under elevated [CO2]. Moreover, we demonstrate that an analysis of the canopy-scale dynamics of isoprene emission and photosynthetic performance under multiple stresses is essential to understand the overall performance under proposed future conditions. PMID:26162427

  16. Facing the Future: Effects of Short-Term Climate Extremes on Isoprene-Emitting and Nonemitting Poplar1

    PubMed Central

    Vanzo, Elisa; Jud, Werner; Li, Ziru; Albert, Andreas; Domagalska, Malgorzata A.; Ghirardo, Andrea; Niederbacher, Bishu; Frenzel, Juliane; Beemster, Gerrit T.S.; Asard, Han; Rennenberg, Heinz; Sharkey, Thomas D.; Hansel, Armin; Schnitzler, Jörg-Peter

    2015-01-01

    Isoprene emissions from poplar (Populus spp.) plantations can influence atmospheric chemistry and regional climate. These emissions respond strongly to temperature, [CO2], and drought, but the superimposed effect of these three climate change factors are, for the most part, unknown. Performing predicted climate change scenario simulations (periodic and chronic heat and drought spells [HDSs] applied under elevated [CO2]), we analyzed volatile organic compound emissions, photosynthetic performance, leaf growth, and overall carbon (C) gain of poplar genotypes emitting (IE) and nonemitting (NE) isoprene. We aimed (1) to evaluate the proposed beneficial effect of isoprene emission on plant stress mitigation and recovery capacity and (2) to estimate the cumulative net C gain under the projected future climate. During HDSs, the chloroplastidic electron transport rate of NE plants became impaired, while IE plants maintained high values similar to unstressed controls. During recovery from HDS episodes, IE plants reached higher daily net CO2 assimilation rates compared with NE genotypes. Irrespective of the genotype, plants undergoing chronic HDSs showed the lowest cumulative C gain. Under control conditions simulating ambient [CO2], the C gain was lower in the IE plants than in the NE plants. In summary, the data on the overall C gain and plant growth suggest that the beneficial function of isoprene emission in poplar might be of minor importance to mitigate predicted short-term climate extremes under elevated [CO2]. Moreover, we demonstrate that an analysis of the canopy-scale dynamics of isoprene emission and photosynthetic performance under multiple stresses is essential to understand the overall performance under proposed future conditions. PMID:26162427

  17. Facing the Future: Effects of Short-Term Climate Extremes on Isoprene-Emitting and Nonemitting Poplar.

    PubMed

    Vanzo, Elisa; Jud, Werner; Li, Ziru; Albert, Andreas; Domagalska, Malgorzata A; Ghirardo, Andrea; Niederbacher, Bishu; Frenzel, Juliane; Beemster, Gerrit T S; Asard, Han; Rennenberg, Heinz; Sharkey, Thomas D; Hansel, Armin; Schnitzler, Jörg-Peter

    2015-09-01

    Isoprene emissions from poplar (Populus spp.) plantations can influence atmospheric chemistry and regional climate. These emissions respond strongly to temperature, [CO2], and drought, but the superimposed effect of these three climate change factors are, for the most part, unknown. Performing predicted climate change scenario simulations (periodic and chronic heat and drought spells [HDSs] applied under elevated [CO2]), we analyzed volatile organic compound emissions, photosynthetic performance, leaf growth, and overall carbon (C) gain of poplar genotypes emitting (IE) and nonemitting (NE) isoprene. We aimed (1) to evaluate the proposed beneficial effect of isoprene emission on plant stress mitigation and recovery capacity and (2) to estimate the cumulative net C gain under the projected future climate. During HDSs, the chloroplastidic electron transport rate of NE plants became impaired, while IE plants maintained high values similar to unstressed controls. During recovery from HDS episodes, IE plants reached higher daily net CO2 assimilation rates compared with NE genotypes. Irrespective of the genotype, plants undergoing chronic HDSs showed the lowest cumulative C gain. Under control conditions simulating ambient [CO2], the C gain was lower in the IE plants than in the NE plants. In summary, the data on the overall C gain and plant growth suggest that the beneficial function of isoprene emission in poplar might be of minor importance to mitigate predicted short-term climate extremes under elevated [CO2]. Moreover, we demonstrate that an analysis of the canopy-scale dynamics of isoprene emission and photosynthetic performance under multiple stresses is essential to understand the overall performance under proposed future conditions.

  18. In-vehicle extremity injuries from improvised explosive devices: current and future foci

    PubMed Central

    Ramasamy, Arul; Masouros, Spyros D.; Newell, Nicolas; Hill, Adam M.; Proud, William G.; Brown, Katherine A.; Bull, Anthony M. J.; Clasper, Jon C.

    2011-01-01

    The conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan have been epitomized by the insurgents' use of the improvised explosive device against vehicle-borne security forces. These weapons, capable of causing multiple severely injured casualties in a single incident, pose the most prevalent single threat to Coalition troops operating in the region. Improvements in personal protection and medical care have resulted in increasing numbers of casualties surviving with complex lower limb injuries, often leading to long-term disability. Thus, there exists an urgent requirement to investigate and mitigate against the mechanism of extremity injury caused by these devices. This will necessitate an ontological approach, linking molecular, cellular and tissue interaction to physiological dysfunction. This can only be achieved via a collaborative approach between clinicians, natural scientists and engineers, combining physical and numerical modelling tools with clinical data from the battlefield. In this article, we compile existing knowledge on the effects of explosions on skeletal injury, review and critique relevant experimental and computational research related to lower limb injury and damage and propose research foci required to drive the development of future mitigation technologies. PMID:21149353

  19. In-vehicle extremity injuries from improvised explosive devices: current and future foci.

    PubMed

    Ramasamy, Arul; Masouros, Spyros D; Newell, Nicolas; Hill, Adam M; Proud, William G; Brown, Katherine A; Bull, Anthony M J; Clasper, Jon C

    2011-01-27

    The conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan have been epitomized by the insurgents' use of the improvised explosive device against vehicle-borne security forces. These weapons, capable of causing multiple severely injured casualties in a single incident, pose the most prevalent single threat to Coalition troops operating in the region. Improvements in personal protection and medical care have resulted in increasing numbers of casualties surviving with complex lower limb injuries, often leading to long-term disability. Thus, there exists an urgent requirement to investigate and mitigate against the mechanism of extremity injury caused by these devices. This will necessitate an ontological approach, linking molecular, cellular and tissue interaction to physiological dysfunction. This can only be achieved via a collaborative approach between clinicians, natural scientists and engineers, combining physical and numerical modelling tools with clinical data from the battlefield. In this article, we compile existing knowledge on the effects of explosions on skeletal injury, review and critique relevant experimental and computational research related to lower limb injury and damage and propose research foci required to drive the development of future mitigation technologies.

  20. The heat goes on—changes in indices of hot extremes in Poland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Graczyk, Dariusz; Pińskwar, Iwona; Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W.; Hov, Øystein; Førland, Eirik J.; Szwed, Małgorzata; Choryński, Adam

    2016-04-01

    On the basis of temperature observations at 60 meteorological stations in Poland, changes in the indices associated with the presence of extremely high air temperatures were examined. Indices associated with heat waves, such as the number of hot days (T max ≥30 °C) in the summer months (June, July, August) and beyond the summer months (May, September), the number of extremely hot days (T max ≥35 °C), the duration of the longest hot spell in the year, as well as the number of tropical nights (T min ≤20 °C) were calculated. Spatial distribution of change rate in days per decade for the studied indices as well as the significance level of the observed trends is illustrated. Also current values of the studied indices (for 1991-2013) are examined and compared with the reference period, 1961-1990. For eight of 11 analysed indexes, increase has been detected in last decades with the help of the Mann-Kendall test at a significance level ≥0.05 or better, for a large group of stations. Statistically significant increases of the number of hot days in summer, the number of tropical nights in a year, and duration of the longest hot spell in summer were found for more than half of the stations. Distinct changes in the duration of heat waves were also noted. In 1961-1990, the longest hot spell lasted for 10 days while in 1991-2013, there were many hot spells longer than that, while the longest hot spell recorded in this period lasted for 17 days. Beyond summer, changes in the number of hot days were smaller. In May, a statistically significant increase was recorded for only three stations, while in September the downward trend was dominating and for eight stations it was statistically significant.

  1. Reply to Rhines and Huybers: Changes in the Frequency of Extreme Summer Heat

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hansen, James; Sato, Makiko; Ruedy, Reto

    2013-01-01

    Rhines and Huybers are correct that the decreasing number of measurement stations in recent years contributed slightly to our calculated increase of extreme summer mean temperature anomalies. However, the increased frequency of extreme heat anomalies is accounted for mainly by (i) higher mean temperature of recent decades relative to the base period 1951-1980, and (ii) the continuing upward temperature trend during recent decades. The effect of decreasing stations is shown by comparing our prior analysis with results using only stations with data records in both the base period and recent years (Fig. 1). The distribution is noisier, and the area with temperature anomaly exceeding three SDs during 2001-2011 decreases from 9.6 to 9.3% for the reduced number of stations (1,886 rather than 6,147), but our conclusions are not changed qualitatively. The temperature anomaly distribution shifts to the right and broadens because it is defined relative to a fixed (1951-1980) base period, during which global temperatures were within the Holocene range. We argue on the basis of accelerating ice loss from Greenland and Antarctica and rapidly rising sea level (now exceeding 3 mm/y or 3 m per millennium) that temperatures in the early 21st century are already above the Holocene range, and thus use of a base period preceding the rapid warming of the past three decades has merit.

  2. Solar assisted heat pumps: A possible wave of the future

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Smetana, F. O.

    1976-01-01

    With the higher costs of electric power and the widespread interest to use solar energy to reduce the national dependence on fossil fuels, heat pumps are examined to determine their suitability for use with solar energy systems.

  3. Understanding future projected changes and trends in extreme precipitation and streamflow events in ten Polish catchments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meresa, Hadush; Romanowicz, Renata; Napiorkoski, Jaroslaw

    2016-04-01

    The aim of the study is to investigate methods of trend detection in hydro-climatic high and low indices using novel and conventional tools, for future climate projections in the periods 2021-2050 and 2071-2100. The climate meteorological projections are obtained from regional climate models or/and global circulation models forced with IPCC SRES A1B, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios. The study area includes ten catchments in Poland. The catchments have diverse hydro-climatic conditions. They are covered mostly by forest and are semi-natural. The flood regime of all the catchments is driven either by rainfall and/or snow-melt. Streamflow projections are provided by running the HBV hydrological model, coupled with climate models for the catchments. The trends are analyzed using a conventional Modified Mann Kendall statistical approach, a time frequency approach based on wavelet discrete transform (DWT) and the Dynamic Harmonic Regression (DHR) method. We address the problems of auto-correlation, seasonality and inter-annual variability of the derived indices. A Modified Mann Kendall (MMK) method is applied to cope with the autocorrelation of the time series. The DHR method is based on the unobserved component approach. Together with estimates of the components, the uncertainty of the estimates is also calculated. The results of the DHR analysis (trend) are compared with the calculated MMK and DWT trends. Among other indices we study the temporal patterns of the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardized Runoff Index (SRI) and Standardized Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), as well as Maximum Annual Flows and Minimum Annual Flows. The results indicate that changes in the trends of the projected indices are more conservative when DHR methods are applied than conventional trend techniques. The wavelet-based approach is the most subjective and gives the least conservative trend estimates. Trends indicate an increase in the amount of precipitation, followed by

  4. Future changes in precipitation and impacts on extreme streamflow over Amazonian sub-basins

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guimberteau, M.; Ronchail, J.; Espinoza, J.; Lengaigne, M.; Sultan, B.; Polcher, J.; Drapeau, G.; Guyot, J.; Ducharne, A.; Ciais, P.

    2013-05-01

    Because of climate change, much attention is drawn on the Amazon River basin whose hydrology has already been strongly affected by extreme events during the past 20 years. Hydrological annual extreme variations (i.e. low/high flows) associated to precipitation (and evapotranspiration) changes are investigated over the Amazon River sub-basins using the land surface model ORCHIDEE and a multi model approach. Climate change scenarios from up to eight AR4 Global Climate Models based on 3 emission scenarios were used to build future hydrological projections in the region, for two periods of the 21st century. For the middle of the century under the SRESA1B scenario, no change is found in high flow on the main stem of the Amazon River (Óbidos station) but a systematic discharge decrease is simulated during the recession period leading to a 10% low-flow decrease. Contrasted discharge variations are pointed out depending on the location in the basin. In the western upper part of the basin which undergoes an annual persistent increase in precipitation, high flow shows a 7% relative increase for the middle of the 21st century and the signal is enhanced for the end of the century (12%). By contrast, simulated precipitation decreases during the dry seasons over the southern, eastern and northern parts of the basin lead to significant low-flow decrease in several stations, especially in the Xingu River where it reaches -50%, associated with a 9% reduction in the runoff coefficient. A 18% high-flow decrease is also found in this river. In the North, the low-flow decrease becomes higher towards the east: a 55% significant decrease in the eastern Branco River is associated with a 13% reduction in the runoff coefficient. The estimation of the streamflow elasticity to precipitation indicates that southern sub-basins (except for the mountainous Beni River) that have low runoff coefficients will become more responsive to precipitation change (with a 5 to near 35% increase in

  5. Future changes in precipitation and impacts on extreme streamflow over Amazonian sub-basins

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guimberteau, M.; Ronchail, J.; Espinoza, J. C.; Lengaigne, M.; Sultan, B.; Polcher, J.; Drapeau, G.; Guyot, J.-L.; Ducharne, A.; Ciais, P.

    2013-03-01

    Because of climate change, much attention is drawn to the Amazon River basin, whose hydrology has already been strongly affected by extreme events during the past 20 years. Hydrological annual extreme variations (i.e. low/high flows) associated with precipitation (and evapotranspiration) changes are investigated over the Amazon River sub-basins using the land surface model ORCHIDEE and a multimodel approach. Climate change scenarios from up to eight AR4 Global Climate Models based on three emission scenarios were used to build future hydrological projections in the region, for two periods of the 21st century. For the middle of the century under the SRESA1B scenario, no change is found in high flow on the main stem of the Amazon River (Óbidos station), but a systematic discharge decrease is simulated during the recession period, leading to a 10% low-flow decrease. Contrasting discharge variations are pointed out depending on the location in the basin. In the western upper part of the basin, which undergoes an annual persistent increase in precipitation, high flow shows a 7% relative increase for the middle of the 21st century and the signal is enhanced for the end of the century (12%). By contrast, simulated precipitation decreases during the dry seasons over the southern, eastern and northern parts of the basin lead to significant low-flow decrease at several stations, especially in the Xingu River, where it reaches -50%, associated with a 9% reduction in the runoff coefficient. A 18% high-flow decrease is also found in this river. In the north, the low-flow decrease becomes higher toward the east: a 55% significant decrease in the eastern Branco River is associated with a 13% reduction in the runoff coefficient. The estimation of the streamflow elasticity to precipitation indicates that southern sub-basins (except for the mountainous Beni River), that have low runoff coefficients, will become more responsive to precipitation change (with a 5 to near 35% increase

  6. Combatting the heat wave of 1980: lessons for the future.

    PubMed

    Allexenberg, R S

    1981-09-01

    Throughout the summer of 1980, much of the nation suffered record-breaking, sustained hot and often humid weather. In cities throughout the country, the oppressive heat often led to crisis situations, and emergency procedures were hastily developed to provide shelter and medical assistance. The heat wave of 1980 was particularly severe in St. Louis, Missouri. On July 17, hospital visits and admissions related to the heat reached a peak of 54 cases. Death rates soared. During the period from June 21 to July 28, the number of deaths in St. Louis rose by 40.6 percent--from 864 deaths in 1979 to 1,215 in the same period in 1980--with the heaviest toll among the poor and elderly. Heat waves of significant medical and social implications are not new to St. Louis. Indeed, conditions similar to 1980 have occurred ten times since 1911, with the most recent heat wave prior to 1980 occurring in 1966. The long periods between crises have caused medical and social planners to neglect or overlook preparations for heat-related illness. Consequently, each new government and medical generation has to deal with these crises from "scratch." PMID:10253341

  7. Continental heat anomalies and the extreme melting of the Greenland ice surface in 2012 and 1889

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Neff, William; Compo, Gilbert P.; Martin Ralph, F.; Shupe, Matthew D.

    2014-06-01

    Recent decades have seen increased melting of the Greenland ice sheet. On 11 July 2012, nearly the entire surface of the ice sheet melted; such rare events last occurred in 1889 and, prior to that, during the Medieval Climate Anomaly. Studies of the 2012 event associated the presence of a thin, warm elevated liquid cloud layer with surface temperatures rising above the melting point at Summit Station, some 3212 m above sea level. Here we explore other potential factors in July 2012 associated with this unusual melting. These include (1) warm air originating from a record North American heat wave, (2) transitions in the Arctic Oscillation, (3) transport of water vapor via an Atmospheric River over the Atlantic to Greenland, and (4) the presence of warm ocean waters south of Greenland. For the 1889 episode, the Twentieth Century Reanalysis and historical records showed similar factors at work. However, markers of biomass burning were evident in ice cores from 1889 which may reflect another possible factor in these rare events. We suggest that extreme Greenland summer melt episodes, such as those recorded recently and in the late Holocene, could have involved a similar combination of slow climate processes, including prolonged North American droughts/heat waves and North Atlantic warm oceanic temperature anomalies, together with fast processes, such as excursions of the Arctic Oscillation, and transport of warm, humid air in Atmospheric Rivers to Greenland. It is the fast processes that underlie the rarity of such events and influence their predictability.

  8. Future needs of occupational epidemiology of extremely low frequency electric and magnetic fields: review and recommendations.

    PubMed

    Kheifets, L; Bowman, J D; Checkoway, H; Feychting, M; Harrington, J M; Kavet, R; Marsh, G; Mezei, G; Renew, D C; van Wijngaarden, E

    2009-02-01

    The occupational epidemiological literature on extremely low frequency electric and magnetic fields (EMF) and health encompasses a large number of studies of varying design and quality that have addressed many health outcomes, including various cancers, cardiovascular disease, depression and suicide, and neurodegenerative diseases, such as Alzheimer disease and amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS). At a 2006 workshop we reviewed studies of occupational EMF exposure with an emphasis on methodological weaknesses, and proposed analytical ways to address some of these. We also developed research priorities that we hope will address remaining uncertainties. Broadly speaking, extensive epidemiological research conducted during the past 20 years on occupational EMF exposure does not indicate strong or consistent associations with cancer or any other health outcomes. Inconsistent results for many of the outcomes may be attributable to numerous shortcomings in the studies, most notably in exposure assessment. There is, however, no obvious correlation between exposure assessment quality and observed associations. Nevertheless, for future research, the highest priorities emerge in both the areas of exposure assessment and investigation of ALS. To better assess exposure, we call for the development of a more complete job-exposure matrix that combines job title, work environment and task, and an index of exposure to electric fields, magnetic fields, spark discharge, contact current, and other chemical and physical agents. For ALS, we propose an international collaborative study capable of illuminating a reported association with electrical occupations by disentangling the potential roles of electric shocks, magnetic fields and bias. Such a study will potentially lead to evidence-based measures to protect public health.

  9. Impacts of the Future Changes in Extreme Events on the Regional Crop Yield in Turkey

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    An, Nazan; Turp, M. Tufan; Ozturk, Tugba; Kurnaz, M. Levent

    2016-04-01

    The changes in extreme events caused by climate change have the greatest impact on agricultural sector specifically crop yield. Therefore, it requires a clear understanding of how extreme events affect the crop yield and how it causes high economic losses. In this research, we cover the relationship between extreme events and the crop yield in Turkey for the period of 2020 - 2045 with respect to 1980 - 2005. We focus on the role of those extreme event causing natural disasters on the regional crop yield. This research comprises 2 parts. In the first part, the projection is performed according to the business as usual scenario of IPCC, RCP8.5, via the RegCM4.4 in order to obtain extreme event indices required for the crop assessment. In the second part, the crop yield and the extreme event indices are combined by applying the econometric analysis in order to see the relationship between natural disasters and crop yield. The risks for crop yield caused by the extreme events are estimated and interpreted. This study aims to assess the effect of frequency of expected extreme events on the crop yield at the cropland of Turkey. This research has been supported by Boǧaziçi University Research Fund Grant Number 10421.

  10. Future trend of extreme value distributions of wintertime surface air temperatures over Korea and the associated physical changes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, Kwang-Yul; Kim, Ji-Won; Kim, Maeng-Ki; Cho, Chun-Ho

    2013-11-01

    Daily winter temperatures in Korea have been analyzed via CSEOF analysis. Then, each PC time series was detrended and was fitted to an AR (autoregressive) model. Based on the identified AR model, an artificial time series of arbitrary length can be generated by using an arbitrary white-noise time series. In this way, one hundred new sets of PC time series were generated over the period of 1973-2058. Then, the trend for each PC time series was added back to the artificial PC time series extending the trend until 2058. Ultimately, artificial daily winter temperatures in Korea have been constructed by using the artificial PC time series and the original loading vectors derived from the observational data. The 100 new data sets have been investigated in order to understand the winter temperature variability 50 years into the future. Regression analysis in CSEOF space shows that temperature increase in Korea is associated with increased 850-hPa air temperature over most of the Asian domain (97°-153°E × 22°-73°N) and increased 850-hPa geopotential height in the southern part of the domain. As a result, southerly and southeasterly wind anomalies develop carrying positive temperature anomalies northward and northwestward. Both the 200-hPa air temperature and geopotential height changes indicate that there will be fairly significant northward shift of the jet stream in future. The standard deviation of the 200-hPa potential vorticity increases implying that shortwave trough and henceforth baroclinic instability will increase in future. Finally, GEV (Generalized Extreme Value) distribution and GPD (Generalized Pareto distribution) distribution have been compared between the observational records and the future records of the same length. The extreme value distributions based on the synthetic datasets show that warm extreme events will be more extreme in future and cold extreme events, on the other hand, will be less extreme. This study provides an estimate of future

  11. Potential Impacts of Future Warming and Land Use Changes on Intra-Urban Heat Exposure in Houston, Texas.

    PubMed

    Conlon, Kathryn; Monaghan, Andrew; Hayden, Mary; Wilhelmi, Olga

    2016-01-01

    Extreme heat events in the United States are projected to become more frequent and intense as a result of climate change. We investigated the individual and combined effects of land use and warming on the spatial and temporal distribution of daily minimum temperature (Tmin) and daily maximum heat index (HImax) during summer in Houston, Texas. Present-day (2010) and near-future (2040) parcel-level land use scenarios were embedded within 1-km resolution land surface model (LSM) simulations. For each land use scenario, LSM simulations were conducted for climatic scenarios representative of both the present-day and near-future periods. LSM simulations assuming present-day climate but 2040 land use patterns led to spatially heterogeneous temperature changes characterized by warmer conditions over most areas, with summer average increases of up to 1.5°C (Tmin) and 7.3°C (HImax) in some newly developed suburban areas compared to simulations using 2010 land use patterns. LSM simulations assuming present-day land use but a 1°C temperature increase above the urban canopy (consistent with warming projections for 2040) yielded more spatially homogeneous metropolitan-wide average increases of about 1°C (Tmin) and 2.5°C (HImax), respectively. LSM simulations assuming both land use and warming for 2040 led to summer average increases of up to 2.5°C (Tmin) and 8.3°C (HImax), with the largest increases in areas projected to be converted to residential, industrial and mixed-use types. Our results suggest that urbanization and climate change may significantly increase the average number of summer days that exceed current threshold temperatures for initiating a heat advisory for metropolitan Houston, potentially increasing population exposure to extreme heat.

  12. Potential Impacts of Future Warming and Land Use Changes on Intra-Urban Heat Exposure in Houston, Texas

    PubMed Central

    Conlon, Kathryn; Monaghan, Andrew; Hayden, Mary; Wilhelmi, Olga

    2016-01-01

    Extreme heat events in the United States are projected to become more frequent and intense as a result of climate change. We investigated the individual and combined effects of land use and warming on the spatial and temporal distribution of daily minimum temperature (Tmin) and daily maximum heat index (HImax) during summer in Houston, Texas. Present-day (2010) and near-future (2040) parcel-level land use scenarios were embedded within 1-km resolution land surface model (LSM) simulations. For each land use scenario, LSM simulations were conducted for climatic scenarios representative of both the present-day and near-future periods. LSM simulations assuming present-day climate but 2040 land use patterns led to spatially heterogeneous temperature changes characterized by warmer conditions over most areas, with summer average increases of up to 1.5°C (Tmin) and 7.3°C (HImax) in some newly developed suburban areas compared to simulations using 2010 land use patterns. LSM simulations assuming present-day land use but a 1°C temperature increase above the urban canopy (consistent with warming projections for 2040) yielded more spatially homogeneous metropolitan-wide average increases of about 1°C (Tmin) and 2.5°C (HImax), respectively. LSM simulations assuming both land use and warming for 2040 led to summer average increases of up to 2.5°C (Tmin) and 8.3°C (HImax), with the largest increases in areas projected to be converted to residential, industrial and mixed-use types. Our results suggest that urbanization and climate change may significantly increase the average number of summer days that exceed current threshold temperatures for initiating a heat advisory for metropolitan Houston, potentially increasing population exposure to extreme heat. PMID:26863298

  13. A non-equilibrium model for soil heating and moisture transport during extreme surface heating: the soil (heat-moisture-vapor) HMV-Model Version 1

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Massman, W. J.

    2015-11-01

    Increased use of prescribed fire by land managers and the increasing likelihood of wildfires due to climate change require an improved modeling capability of extreme heating of soils during fires. This issue is addressed here by developing and testing the soil (heat-moisture-vapor) HMV-model, a 1-D (one-dimensional) non-equilibrium (liquid-vapor phase change) model of soil evaporation that simulates the coupled simultaneous transport of heat, soil moisture, and water vapor. This model is intended for use with surface forcing ranging from daily solar cycles to extreme conditions encountered during fires. It employs a linearized Crank-Nicolson scheme for the conservation equations of energy and mass and its performance is evaluated against dynamic soil temperature and moisture observations, which were obtained during laboratory experiments on soil samples exposed to surface heat fluxes ranging between 10 000 and 50 000 W m-2. The Hertz-Knudsen equation is the basis for constructing the model's non-equilibrium evaporative source term. Some unusual aspects of the model that were found to be extremely important to the model's performance include (1) a dynamic (temperature and moisture potential dependent) condensation coefficient associated with the evaporative source term, (2) an infrared radiation component to the soil's thermal conductivity, and (3) a dynamic residual soil moisture. This last term, which is parameterized as a function of temperature and soil water potential, is incorporated into the water retention curve and hydraulic conductivity functions in order to improve the model's ability to capture the evaporative dynamics of the strongly bound soil moisture, which requires temperatures well beyond 150 °C to fully evaporate. The model also includes film flow, although this phenomenon did not contribute much to the model's overall performance. In general, the model simulates the laboratory-observed temperature dynamics quite well, but is less precise (but

  14. Effect of temperature shock and inventory surprises on natural gas and heating oil futures returns.

    PubMed

    Hu, John Wei-Shan; Hu, Yi-Chung; Lin, Chien-Yu

    2014-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to examine the impact of temperature shock on both near-month and far-month natural gas and heating oil futures returns by extending the weather and storage models of the previous study. Several notable findings from the empirical studies are presented. First, the expected temperature shock significantly and positively affects both the near-month and far-month natural gas and heating oil futures returns. Next, significant temperature shock has effect on both the conditional mean and volatility of natural gas and heating oil prices. The results indicate that expected inventory surprises significantly and negatively affects the far-month natural gas futures returns. Moreover, volatility of natural gas futures returns is higher on Thursdays and that of near-month heating oil futures returns is higher on Wednesdays than other days. Finally, it is found that storage announcement for natural gas significantly affects near-month and far-month natural gas futures returns. Furthermore, both natural gas and heating oil futures returns are affected more by the weighted average temperature reported by multiple weather reporting stations than that reported by a single weather reporting station.

  15. Responding to the Effects of Extreme Heat: Baltimore City's Code Red Program.

    PubMed

    Martin, Jennifer L

    2016-01-01

    Heat response plans are becoming increasingly more common as US cities prepare for heat waves and other effects of climate change. Standard elements of heat response plans exist, but plans vary depending on geographic location and distribution of vulnerable populations. Because heat events vary over time and affect populations differently based on vulnerability, it is difficult to compare heat response plans and evaluate responses to heat events. This article provides an overview of the Baltimore City heat response plan, the Code Red program, and discusses the city's response to the 2012 Ohio Valley/Mid Atlantic Derecho, a complex heat event. Challenges with and strategies for evaluating the program are reviewed and shared.

  16. Life cycle cost assessment of future low heat rejection engines

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Petersen, D. R.

    1986-01-01

    The Adiabatic Diesel Engine Component Development (ADECD) represents a project which has the objective to accelerate the development of highway truck engines with advanced technology aimed at reduced fuel consumption. The project comprises three steps, including the synthesis of a number of engine candidate designs, the coupling of each with a number of systems for utilizing exhaust gas energy, and the evaluation of each combination in terms of desirability. Particular attention is given to the employed evaluation method and the development of this method. The objective of Life Cycle Cost (LCC) evaluation in the ADECD program was to select the best from among 42 different low heat rejection engine (LHRE)/exhaust energy recovery system configurations. The LCC model is discussed along with a maintenance cost model, the evaluation strategy, the selection of parameter ranges, and a full factorial analysis.

  17. Enhancing Extreme Heat Health-Related Intervention and Preparedness Activities Using Remote Sensing Analysis of Daily Surface Temperature, Surface Observation Networks and Ecmwf Reanalysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Garcia, R. L.; Booth, J.; Hondula, D.; Ross, K. W.; Stuyvesant, A.; Alm, G.; Baghel, E.

    2015-12-01

    Extreme heat causes more human fatalities in the United States than any other natural disaster, elevating the concern of heat-related mortality. Maricopa County Arizona is known for its high heat index and its sprawling metropolitan complex which makes this region a perfect candidate for human health research. Individuals at higher risk are unequally spatially distributed, leaving the poor, homeless, non-native English speakers, elderly, and the socially isolated vulnerable to heat events. The Arizona Department of Health Services, Arizona State University and NASA DEVELOP LaRC are working to establish a more effective method of placing hydration and cooling centers in addition to enhancing the heat warning system to aid those with the highest exposure. Using NASA's Earth Observation Systems from Aqua and Terra satellites, the daily spatial variability within the UHI was quantified over the summer heat seasons from 2005 - 2014, effectively establishing a remotely sensed surface temperature climatology for the county. A series of One-way Analysis of Variance revealed significant differences between daily surface temperature averages of the top 30% of census tracts within the study period. Furthermore, synoptic upper tropospheric circulation patterns were classified to relate surface weather types and heat index. The surface weather observation networks were also reviewed for analyzing the veracity of the other methods. The results provide detailed information regarding nuances within the UHI effect and will allow pertinent recommendations regarding the health department's adaptive capacity. They also hold essential components for future policy decision-making regarding appropriate locations for cooling centers and efficient warning systems.

  18. Human-biometeorological assessment of increasing summertime extreme heat events in Shanghai, China during 1973-2015

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kong, Qinqin; Ge, Quansheng; Xi, Jianchao; Zheng, Jingyun

    2016-09-01

    Summertime extreme heat events, defined by the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI), have shown increasing trends in Shanghai from 1973 to 2015. There is a clear shift to higher temperatures for the daily maximum UTCI values, and the number of days with daily maximum UTCI exceeding 38 °C significantly increased by 4.34 days/10a. An upward trend of 3.67 days/10a was detected for the number of hot days which also displays an abrupt increase around 1998. Both the frequency and total duration of heat waves have significantly increased by 0.77 times/10a and 3.51 days/10a respectively. Their inter-decadal variations indicate a three-part division of the study period showing more and more heat waves and longer total duration, which are 1.0 times/a and 4.13 days/a for 1973-1987, 1.71 times/a and 7.64 days/a for 1988-2001, and 3.57 times/a and 16.0 days/a for 2002-2015. In addition to that are more occurrences of long-lasting heat waves. Compared with the UTCI, air temperature-based definitions have indicated substantially higher increases in extreme heat events, especially for hot nights. The relatively low humidity and strong wind speeds in the twenty-first century are considered to be responsible for this difference. Our study provides a more in-depth case to monitor extreme heat events under the combining effects of air temperature, humidity, wind speeds, total cloud cover, etc. and can support studies over other regions.

  19. Responding to the Effects of Extreme Heat: Baltimore City's Code Red Program.

    PubMed

    Martin, Jennifer L

    2016-01-01

    Heat response plans are becoming increasingly more common as US cities prepare for heat waves and other effects of climate change. Standard elements of heat response plans exist, but plans vary depending on geographic location and distribution of vulnerable populations. Because heat events vary over time and affect populations differently based on vulnerability, it is difficult to compare heat response plans and evaluate responses to heat events. This article provides an overview of the Baltimore City heat response plan, the Code Red program, and discusses the city's response to the 2012 Ohio Valley/Mid Atlantic Derecho, a complex heat event. Challenges with and strategies for evaluating the program are reviewed and shared. PMID:27081886

  20. Back to the Future -Precipitation Extremes, Climate Variability, Environmental Planning and Adaptation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barros, A. P.

    2008-12-01

    --"The last major climatic oscillation peak was about 1856, or 74 years ago. Practically all of our important railroad and public highway work has been done since that time. Most of our parks systems driveways, and roads of all type for auto travel, in the various States, have been completed within the past 30 years, namely, beginning at the very lowest point of our climatic swing (1900-1910). There is every reason to believe, therefore, as the next 20 years comes on apace, we will witness considerable damage to work done during the past regime of weather."-- Schuman, 1931 At the beginning of the 21st century, as at the beginning of the 20th century, the fundamental question is whether the nation is more prepared for natural disasters today than it was eight decades ago. Indeed, the question is whether the best science, engineering and policy tools are in place to prepare for and respond to extreme events. Changes in the risk and magnitude of extreme precipitation events rank among the most studied impacts, and indicators (symptoms) of climatic variations. Extreme precipitation translates generally into extreme flooding, landslides, collapse of lifeline infrastructure, and the breakdown of public health services among others. In approaching the problem of quantifying the risk and magnitude of extreme precipitation events, there are two major challenges: 1) it is difficult to characterize "observed" (20th century) conditions due to the lack of long-term observations - i.e., short and incomplete historical records; and 2) it is difficult to characterize "predicted" (21st century) conditions due to the lack of skill of precipitation forecasts at spatial and temporal scales meaningful for impact studies, and the short-duration of climate model simulations themselves. The first challenge translates in estimating the probability of occurrence (rare) and magnitude (very large) of events that may have not happened yet. The second challenge is that of quantifying

  1. Extreme Heat Wave over European Russia in Summer 2010: Anomaly or a Manifestation of Climatic Trend?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Razuvaev, V.; Groisman, P. Y.; Bulygina, O.; Borzenkova, I.

    2010-12-01

    Extraordinary temperature anomalies over European Russia (ER) in summer 2010 raised a legitimate question in the title of this presentation. A 60-days-long hot anticyclonic weather system with daily temperature anomalies as high as +10K and no or negligible amount of rainfall first decimated crops in the forest-steppe zone of ER, gradually dried wetlands in the forest zone and, finally, caused numerous natural and anthropogenic fires that at the time of this abstract preparation have not yet been extinguished. The extreme heat, lack of precipitation, and forest fires have caused hundreds of deaths and multimillion dollars in property losses. Indirect losses of lives due to this weather anomaly, with the ensuing fires and related air pollution, as well as the absence of air conditioning in apartments has yet to be estimated. The center of European Russia was well covered by meteorological observations for the past 130 years. These data, historical weather records (yearbooks or "letopisi" , which were carried on in the major Russian monasteries), and finally, dendroclimatological information, all show that this summer temperature anomaly was well above all known extremes in the past 1000 years. Like ocean waves and ocean tides, weather and climate variability go together strengthening (or mitigating) each other. We shall show the precursors of the current outbreak using principally the most accurate meteorological records of the past century updated to 2009 (at the Session, the 2010 data will also be presented). While a careful analyses of these records and thoughtful analyses of recent similar temperature outbreaks in Western Europe could not prevent the occurrence of this disaster, the lessons learned from these analyses (a) would warn about its increasing probability and (b) mitigation and adaptation measures could well be made to reduce its negative consequences. Among our arguments are: (1)There is a century-long tendency of reduction of equator minus pole

  2. Heat supply from municipal solid waste incineration plants in Japan: Current situation and future challenges.

    PubMed

    Tabata, Tomohiro; Tsai, Peii

    2016-02-01

    The use of waste-to-energy technology as part of a municipal solid waste management strategy could reduce the use of fossil fuels and contribute to prevention of global warming. In this study, we examined current heat and electricity production by incineration plants in Japan for external use. Herein, we discuss specific challenges to the promotion of heat utilisation and future municipal solid waste management strategies. We conducted a questionnaire survey to determine the actual conditions of heat production by incineration plants. From the survey results, information of about 498 incineration plants was extracted. When we investigated the relationship between heat production for external use and population density where incineration plants were located, we found that regions with a population density <1000 persons (km(2))(-1) produce <500 MJ t(-1) of heat. We also found that external use of such energy for factories, markets, and related use, was noted in cities with a population density of 2000 to 4000 persons (km(2))(-1). Several incineration plants have poor performance for heat production because there are few facilities near them to provide demand for the energy. This is the result of redundant capacity, and is reflected in the heat production performance. Given these results, we discussed future challenges to creating energy demand around incineration plants where there is presently none. We also examined the challenges involved in increasing heat supply beyond the present situation.

  3. Double Exposure and the Climate Gap: Changing demographics and extreme heat in Ciudad Juárez, Mexico

    PubMed Central

    Collins, Timothy W.; McDonald, Yolanda J.; Aldouri, Raed; Aboargob, Faraj; Eldeb, Abdelatif; Aguilar, María de Lourdes Romo; Velázquez-Angulo, Juárez Gilberto

    2013-01-01

    Scholars have recognized a climate gap, wherein poor communities face disproportionate impacts of climate change. Others have noted that climate change and economic globalization may mutually affect a region or social group, leading to double exposure. This paper investigates how current and changing patterns of neighborhood demographics are associated with extreme heat in the border city of Juárez, Mexico. Many Juárez neighborhoods are at-risk to triple exposures, in which residents suffer due to the conjoined effects of the global recession, drug war violence, and extreme heat. Due to impacts of the recession on maquiladora employment and the explosion of drug violence (since 2008), over 75% of neighborhoods experienced decreasing population density between 2000 and 2010 and the average neighborhood saw a 40% increase in the proportion of older adults. Neighborhoods with greater drops in population density and increases in the proportion of older residents over the decade are at significantly higher risk to extreme heat, as are neighborhoods with lower population density and lower levels of education. In this context, triple exposures are associated with a climate gap that most endangers lower socioeconomic status and increasingly older aged populations remaining in neighborhoods from which high proportions of residents have departed. PMID:25642135

  4. Extremely low loss phonon-trapping cryogenic acoustic cavities for future physical experiments.

    PubMed

    Galliou, Serge; Goryachev, Maxim; Bourquin, Roger; Abbé, Philippe; Aubry, Jean Pierre; Tobar, Michael E

    2013-01-01

    Low loss Bulk Acoustic Wave devices are considered from the point of view of the solid state approach as phonon-confining cavities. We demonstrate effective design of such acoustic cavities with phonon-trapping techniques exhibiting extremely high quality factors for trapped longitudinally-polarized phonons of various wavelengths. Quality factors of observed modes exceed 1 billion, with a maximum Q-factor of 8 billion and Q × f product of 1.6 · 10(18) at liquid helium temperatures. Such high sensitivities allow analysis of intrinsic material losses in resonant phonon systems. Various mechanisms of phonon losses are discussed and estimated.

  5. Extremely Low Loss Phonon-Trapping Cryogenic Acoustic Cavities for Future Physical Experiments

    PubMed Central

    Galliou, Serge; Goryachev, Maxim; Bourquin, Roger; Abbé, Philippe; Aubry, Jean Pierre; Tobar, Michael E.

    2013-01-01

    Low loss Bulk Acoustic Wave devices are considered from the point of view of the solid state approach as phonon-confining cavities. We demonstrate effective design of such acoustic cavities with phonon-trapping techniques exhibiting extremely high quality factors for trapped longitudinally-polarized phonons of various wavelengths. Quality factors of observed modes exceed 1 billion, with a maximum Q-factor of 8 billion and Q × f product of 1.6 · 1018 at liquid helium temperatures. Such high sensitivities allow analysis of intrinsic material losses in resonant phonon systems. Various mechanisms of phonon losses are discussed and estimated. PMID:23823569

  6. Extremely low loss phonon-trapping cryogenic acoustic cavities for future physical experiments.

    PubMed

    Galliou, Serge; Goryachev, Maxim; Bourquin, Roger; Abbé, Philippe; Aubry, Jean Pierre; Tobar, Michael E

    2013-01-01

    Low loss Bulk Acoustic Wave devices are considered from the point of view of the solid state approach as phonon-confining cavities. We demonstrate effective design of such acoustic cavities with phonon-trapping techniques exhibiting extremely high quality factors for trapped longitudinally-polarized phonons of various wavelengths. Quality factors of observed modes exceed 1 billion, with a maximum Q-factor of 8 billion and Q × f product of 1.6 · 10(18) at liquid helium temperatures. Such high sensitivities allow analysis of intrinsic material losses in resonant phonon systems. Various mechanisms of phonon losses are discussed and estimated. PMID:23823569

  7. Projecting Future Heat-Related Mortality under Climate Change Scenarios: A Systematic Review

    PubMed Central

    Barnett, Adrian Gerard; Wang, Xiaoming; Vaneckova, Pavla; FitzGerald, Gerard; Tong, Shilu

    2011-01-01

    Background: Heat-related mortality is a matter of great public health concern, especially in the light of climate change. Although many studies have found associations between high temperatures and mortality, more research is needed to project the future impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality. Objectives: We conducted a systematic review of research and methods for projecting future heat-related mortality under climate change scenarios. Data sources and extraction: A literature search was conducted in August 2010, using the electronic databases PubMed, Scopus, ScienceDirect, ProQuest, and Web of Science. The search was limited to peer-reviewed journal articles published in English from January 1980 through July 2010. Data synthesis: Fourteen studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Most projections showed that climate change would result in a substantial increase in heat-related mortality. Projecting heat-related mortality requires understanding historical temperature–mortality relationships and considering the future changes in climate, population, and acclimatization. Further research is needed to provide a stronger theoretical framework for projections, including a better understanding of socioeconomic development, adaptation strategies, land-use patterns, air pollution, and mortality displacement. Conclusions: Scenario-based projection research will meaningfully contribute to assessing and managing the potential impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality. PMID:21816703

  8. Performance and heat transfer characteristics of the laser-heated rocket - A future space transportation system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shoji, J. M.; Larson, V. R.

    1976-01-01

    The application of advanced liquid-bipropellant rocket engine analysis techniques has been utilized for prediction of the potential delivered performance and the design of thruster wall cooling schemes for laser-heated rocket thrusters. Delivered specific impulse values greater than 1000 lbf-sec/lbm are potentially achievable based on calculations for thrusters designed for 10-kW and 5000-kW laser beam power levels. A thruster wall-cooling technique utilizing a combination of regenerative cooling and a carbon-seeded hydrogen boundary layer is presented. The flowing carbon-seeded hydrogen boundary layer provides radiation absorption of the heat radiated from the high-temperature plasma. Also described is a forced convection thruster wall cooling design for an experimental test thruster.

  9. Charging studies of heat packs using parabolic dish solar energy concentrator for extreme conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kumar, Rohitash; Vyas, Sumita; Kumar, Ravindra; Dixit, Ambesh

    2016-05-01

    Parabolic dish solar energy concentrator with aperture diameter 1.4 m and focal length 0.32 m is designed and fabricated to charge and store solar thermal energy in phase change material (PCM) based heat packs. Overall heat loss factor, heat duty, over all thermal efficiency, and optical efficiency factor are calculated using water sensible heating and cooling tests and values are 16.11 W m-2 K-1, 546.9 W, 49.2% and 0.62 respectively. The performance characteristic curve is generated using these parameters to understand its performance at different ambient temperatures and solar insolation. The fabricated concentrator has been used to charge 16 PCM heat packs with 150 g PCM in each heat pack, which took about 35 minutes for complete charging of PCM heat packs at average ambient temperature 39 °C and solar radiation flux density 715 W m-2 K-1. The charged heat packs are subjected to discharge studies at average ambient temperature about - 7 °C and observed heat release in the temperature range of 48 to 40 °C for 50 minutes, suggesting its applications for comfort and therapeutic applications in high altitude areas.

  10. How extreme are extremes?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cucchi, Marco; Petitta, Marcello; Calmanti, Sandro

    2016-04-01

    High temperatures have an impact on the energy balance of any living organism and on the operational capabilities of critical infrastructures. Heat-wave indicators have been mainly developed with the aim of capturing the potential impacts on specific sectors (agriculture, health, wildfires, transport, power generation and distribution). However, the ability to capture the occurrence of extreme temperature events is an essential property of a multi-hazard extreme climate indicator. Aim of this study is to develop a standardized heat-wave indicator, that can be combined with other indices in order to describe multiple hazards in a single indicator. The proposed approach can be used in order to have a quantified indicator of the strenght of a certain extreme. As a matter of fact, extremes are usually distributed in exponential or exponential-exponential functions and it is difficult to quickly asses how strong was an extreme events considering only its magnitude. The proposed approach simplify the quantitative and qualitative communication of extreme magnitude

  11. Possible Impact of climate change on future extreme precipitation of the Oldman, Bow and Red Deer River Basins of Alberta

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yew Gan, Thian; Gizaw, Mesgana

    2016-04-01

    The impact of climate change on extreme precipitation events in the Oldman (ORB), Bow, (BRB) and Red Deer (RRB) River Basins of southern Alberta, Canada, was assessed using six extreme climate indices for the rainy period of May-August (MJJA), and 9-km resolution Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2 and A1B climate scenarios of four Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) Global Climate Models (GCMs) dynamically downscaled by a regional climate model, MM5. R95p of the three study sites showed an increase of 4% for the 2050s (2041-2070) and 10% for the 2080s (2071-2100) period, whereas R99p increased by 39% (2050s) and 42% (2080s) which suggest a projected increase in the volume of precipitation expected in future very wet and particularly extremely wet days. Similarly, R20mm, P30yr, RX1day and RX5day are also projected to increase by about 15% by the mid- and late 21st century in the three study sites. However, compared to BRB and RRB, ORB located in the southernmost part of the study site is projected to undergo a relatively higher increase in both temperature and precipitation intensity, which is assessed in terms of indices such as P30yr, RX1day and RX5day. On the other hand, RRB and BRB are projected to experience higher increase in R20mm, which suggest a relatively higher increase in the number of very heavy precipitation days projected for these two basins. Overall, these results suggest that in the 2050s and 2080s, southern Alberta will be expected to experience more frequent and severe intensive storm events in the MJJA season that could potentially increase the risk of future flooding in this region. Ref: Gizaw, M., and Gan, T. Y., 2015, Possible Impact of climate change on future extreme precipitation of the Oldman, Bow and Red Deer River Basins of Alberta, Int. Journal Climatology, DOI:10.1002/joc.4338

  12. Historical Review of Electric Household Appliances using Induction-Heating and Future Challenging Trends

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hirota, Izuo; Yamashita, Hidekazu; Omori, Hideki; Nakaoka, Mutsuo

    This paper presents historical progress on technology evolution of the electric and electronic household appliances using the inverter, especially for Induction-Heating applications, which have been put in practical use as the desk-top cooker for the first time at home in 1974 until being applied to the rice cooker and the multi-burner cooking heater. It also describes the future innovative evolution of the power semiconductor switching devices and the inverter circuit topologies supporting its progressive developments. Looking back its progress, the future trends on consumer power electronics is discussed on the practical problem in the future.

  13. High Resolution Simulation of a Colorado Rockies Extreme Snow and Rain Event in both a Current and Future Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rasmussen, Roy; Ikeda, Kyoko; Liu, Changhai; Gutmann, Ethan; Gochis, David

    2016-04-01

    Modeling of extreme weather events often require very finely resolved treatment of atmospheric circulation structures in order to produce and localize the large moisture fluxes that result in extreme precipitation. This is particularly true for cool season orographic precipitation processes where the representation of the landform can significantly impact vertical velocity profiles and cloud moisture entrainment rates. This study presents results for high resolution regional climate modeling study of the Colorado Headwaters region using an updated version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model run at 4 km horizontal resolution and a hydrological extension package called WRF-Hydro. Previous work has shown that the WRF modeling system can produce credible depictions of winter orographic precipitation over the Colorado Rockies if run at horizontal resolutions < 6 km. Here we present results from a detailed study of an extreme springtime snowfall event that occurred along the Colorado Front Range in March 2003. Results from the impact of warming on total precipitation, snow-rain partitioning and surface hydrological fluxes (evapotranspiration and runoff) will be discussed in the context of how potential changes in temperature impact the amount of precipitation, the phase of precipitation (rain vs. snow) and the timing and amplitude of streamflow responses. The results show using the Pseudo Global Warming technique that intense precipitation rates significantly increased during the event and a significant fraction of the snowfall converts to rain which significantly amplifies the runoff response from one where runoff is produced gradually to one in which runoff is rapidly translated into streamflow values that approach significant flooding risks. Results from a new, CONUS scale high resolution climate simulation of extreme events in a current and future climate will be presented as time permits.

  14. Monitoring and quantifying future climate projections of dryness and wetness extremes: SPI bias

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sienz, F.; Bothe, O.; Fraedrich, K.

    2012-07-01

    The adequacy of the gamma distribution (GD) for monthly precipitation totals is reconsidered. The motivation for this study is the observation that the GD fails to represent precipitation in considerable areas of global observed and simulated data. This misrepresentation may lead to erroneous estimates of the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI), evaluations of models, and assessments of climate change. In this study, the GD is compared to the Weibull (WD), Burr Type III (BD), exponentiated Weibull (EWD) and generalised gamma (GGD) distribution. These distributions extend the GD in terms of possible shapes (skewness and kurtosis) and the behaviour for large arguments. The comparison is based on the Akaike information criterion, which maximises information entropy and reveals a trade-off between deviation and the numbers of parameters used. We use monthly sums of observed and simulated precipitation for 12 calendar months of the year. Assessing observed and simulated data, (i) the Weibull type distributions give distinctly improved fits compared to the GD and (ii) the SPI resulting from the GD overestimates (underestimates) extreme dryness (wetness).

  15. Monitoring and quantifying future climate projections of dryness and wetness extremes: SPI bias

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sienz, F.; Bothe, O.; Fraedrich, K.

    2011-12-01

    The adequacy of the Gamma distribution (GD) for monthly precipitation totals is reconsidered. The motivation for this study is the observation that the GD fails to represent precipitation in considerable areas of global observed and simulated data. This misrepresentation may lead to erroneous estimates of the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI), evaluations of models, and assessments of climate change. In this study, the GD is compared to the Weibull (WD), Burr Type III (BD), exponentiated Weibull (EWD) and generalised Gamma (GGD) distribution. These distributions extend the GD in terms of possible shapes (skewness and kurtosis) and the behaviour for large arguments. The comparison is based on the Akaike information criterion, which maximises information entropy, and reveals a trade-off between deviation and the numbers of parameters used. We use monthly sums of observed and simulated precipitation for 12 calendar months of the year. Assessing observed and simulated data (i) the Weibull type distributions give distinctly improved fits compared to the GD and (ii) the SPI resulting from the GD overestimates (underestimates) extreme dryness (wetness).

  16. Impacts of The Future Changes in Extreme Events on Migration in The Middle East

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    An, Nazan; Turp, M. Tufan; Ozturk, Tugba; Kurnaz, M. Levent

    2016-04-01

    Natural hazards are defined as extreme events that threat people, their homes and their neighborhoods. They damage housing, food production system and other infrastructures. The frequency of natural hazards namely drought, floods can influence the residential decision-making and can cause substantial residential mobility by affecting relatively greater numbers of people in the region. Developing countries are more vulnerable to the impacts of natural hazards. Therefore, environmental migration can be associated with natural hazards especially in the developing countries. Limited water resources and demographic dynamics of the Middle East make the region one of the most affected domains from the impacts of natural hazards. In this study, we consider the relationship between migration as a demographic process and the frequency of natural hazards in the Middle East for the period of 2020 - 2045 with respect to 1980 - 2005 by performing the projection according to the scenario of IPCC, namely RCP8.5 through the RegCM4.4 and combining them with an econometric analysis. This research has been supported by Boǧaziçi University Research Fund Grant Number 10421.

  17. "Extremely minimally invasive": recent advances in nanotechnology research and future applications in neurosurgery.

    PubMed

    Mattei, Tobias A; Rehman, Azeem A

    2015-01-01

    The term "nanotechnology" refers to the development of materials and devices that have been designed with specific properties at the nanometer scale (10(-9) m), usually being less than 100 nm in size. Recent advances in nanotechnology have promised to enable visualization and intervention at the subcellular level, and its incorporation to future medical therapeutics is expected to bring new avenues for molecular imaging, targeted drug delivery, and personalized interventions. Although the central nervous system presents unique challenges to the implementation of new therapeutic strategies involving nanotechnology (such as the heterogeneous molecular environment of different CNS regions, the existence of multiple processing centers with different cytoarchitecture, and the presence of the blood-brain barrier), numerous studies have demonstrated that the incorporation of nanotechnology resources into the armamentarium of neurosurgery may lead to breakthrough advances in the near future. In this article, the authors present a critical review on the current 'state-of-the-art' of basic research in nanotechnology with special attention to those issues which present the greatest potential to generate major therapeutic progresses in the neurosurgical field, including nanoelectromechanical systems, nano-scaffolds for neural regeneration, sutureless anastomosis, molecular imaging, targeted drug delivery, and theranostic strategies.

  18. Heat flow and temperature-depth curves throughout Alaska: finding regions for future geothermal exploration

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Batir, Joseph F.; Blackwell, David D.; Richards, Maria C.

    2016-06-01

    The objective of this research is to contribute to the understanding of the thermal regime of Alaska and its relationship to geology, regional tectonics, and to suggest potential sites for future geothermal energy production. New heat flow data were collected and are combined with existing published and unpublished data, although large sections of Alaska still lack data. Fault traces were implemented into the heat flow contouring as an additional gridding constraint, to incorporate both heat flow measurements and geology. New heat flow data supported the use of geologic trends in the heat flow mapping procedure, and a heat flow map of Alaska was produced with this added constraint. The multi-input contouring strategy allows production of a map with a regional interpretation of heat flow, in addition to site-specific heat flow and thermal model interpretations in areas with sufficient data density. Utilizing the new heat flow map, temperature-at-depth curves were created for example areas. Temperature-at-depth curves are calculated to 10 km depth for the areas of Anchorage, Fairbanks, Juneau, the Alaska Peninsula, Bristol Bay, and the Copper River Basin. The temperatures-at-depth predicted near the population centers of Anchorage and Juneau are relatively low, limiting the geothermal resource potential. The Fairbanks area temperature estimates are near conventional power production temperatures (150 °C) between 3.5 and 4 km. All data areas, except at Juneau, have temperatures sufficient for low temperature geothermal applications (40 °C) by 2 km. A high heat flow region exists within the Aleutian Volcanic Arc, although new data show heat flow variations from 59 to 120 mW m-2, so individual geothermal resources within the arc will be irregularly located.

  19. Heat flow and temperature-depth curves throughout Alaska: finding regions for future geothermal exploration

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Batir, Joseph F.; Blackwell, David D.; Richards, Maria C.

    2016-06-01

    The objective of this research is to contribute to the understanding of the thermal regime of Alaska and its relationship to geology, regional tectonics, and to suggest potential sites for future geothermal energy production. New heat flow data were collected and are combined with existing published and unpublished data, although large sections of Alaska still lack data. Fault traces were implemented into the heat flow contouring as an additional gridding constraint, to incorporate both heat flow measurements and geology. New heat flow data supported the use of geologic trends in the heat flow mapping procedure, and a heat flow map of Alaska was produced with this added constraint. The multi-input contouring strategy allows production of a map with a regional interpretation of heat flow, in addition to site-specific heat flow and thermal model interpretations in areas with sufficient data density. Utilizing the new heat flow map, temperature-at-depth curves were created for example areas. Temperature-at-depth curves are calculated to 10 km depth for the areas of Anchorage, Fairbanks, Juneau, the Alaska Peninsula, Bristol Bay, and the Copper River Basin. The temperatures-at-depth predicted near the population centers of Anchorage and Juneau are relatively low, limiting the geothermal resource potential. The Fairbanks area temperature estimates are near conventional power production temperatures (150 °C) between 3.5 and 4 km. All data areas, except at Juneau, have temperatures sufficient for low temperature geothermal applications (40 °C) by 2 km. A high heat flow region exists within the Aleutian Volcanic Arc, although new data show heat flow variations from 59 to 120 mW m‑2, so individual geothermal resources within the arc will be irregularly located.

  20. Analysis of Extreme Heat in Historical and Projected Climate Simulations for Regional Climate Planning Purposes in the U.S.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Geil, K.; Zeng, X.; McMahan, B.; Ferguson, D. B.

    2015-12-01

    The U.S. National Climate Assessment (NCA) states that global climate models predict more extreme temperatures and more frequent, intense, and longer heat waves on a regional basis as global temperatures rise throughout the 21st century, but a thorough test of whether these models can simulate observed heat metrics and trends over the historical period was not included in the assessment. Understanding the capabilities of climate models over the historical period is crucial to assessing our confidence in their predictive ability at regional scales. Our work fills this research gap by evaluating the performance of Coupled Model Intercomparison Phase 5 (CMIP5) models as compared to observational data using multiple heat metrics. Our metrics are targeted for the southwest United States, but our regional analysis covers the entire continental U.S. and Alaska using 7 of the regions delineated by the NCA. The heat metrics include heat wave and cold wave frequency, intensity, and duration, overnight low temperatures, onset and length of the hot season, and human heat stress. For the best performing models, we compute the same heat metrics for the RCP scenarios. In addition to presenting the results of our CMIP5 historical and RCP analyses, we also describe how our results may be applied to the benefit of our community in Southern Arizona as a case study. Our research will be used by NOAA's Climate Assessment for the Southwest (CLIMAS) and by an interdisciplinary collaborative team of researchers from the University of Arizona working with an electric utility to integrate climate information into their strategic planning.

  1. Acclimation of killifish to thermal extremes of hot spring: Transcription of gonadal and liver heat shock genes.

    PubMed

    Akbarzadeh, Arash; Leder, Erica H

    2016-01-01

    In this study, we explored the hypothesis that killifish acclimate to thermal extremes through regulation of genes involved in stress and metabolism. We examined the liver and gonadal transcription of heat shock proteins (hsp70, hsp90a, hsp90b), glucokinase (gck), and high mobility group b1 (hmgb1) protein in wild killifish species from hot springs and rivers using quantitative real-time PCR. Moreover, we exposed a river killifish species to a long-term thermal regime of hot spring (37-40°C) and examined the liver transcription of the heat shock genes. Our results showed that hot spring killifish showed a significant, strong upregulation of liver hsp90a. Moreover, the testicular transcript levels of hsp90a, hsp90b, and hsp70 were higher in hot spring killifish than the river ones. The results of the common garden experiments showed that the transcripts of hsp70, hsp90b, and hmgb1 were mildly induced (> twofold) at the time when temperature reached to 37-40°C, while the transcripts of hsp90a were strongly induced (17-fold increase). The level of hsp90a was dramatically more upregulated when fish were maintained in thermal extreme (42-fold change higher than in ambient temperature). Moreover, a significant downregulation of gck transcripts was observed at the time when temperature was raised to 37-40°C (80-fold decrease) and during exposure to long-term thermal extreme (56-fold decrease). It can be concluded that the regulation of heat shock genes particularly hsp90a might be a key factor of the acclimation of fish to high temperature environments like hot springs. PMID:26459983

  2. Acclimation of killifish to thermal extremes of hot spring: Transcription of gonadal and liver heat shock genes.

    PubMed

    Akbarzadeh, Arash; Leder, Erica H

    2016-01-01

    In this study, we explored the hypothesis that killifish acclimate to thermal extremes through regulation of genes involved in stress and metabolism. We examined the liver and gonadal transcription of heat shock proteins (hsp70, hsp90a, hsp90b), glucokinase (gck), and high mobility group b1 (hmgb1) protein in wild killifish species from hot springs and rivers using quantitative real-time PCR. Moreover, we exposed a river killifish species to a long-term thermal regime of hot spring (37-40°C) and examined the liver transcription of the heat shock genes. Our results showed that hot spring killifish showed a significant, strong upregulation of liver hsp90a. Moreover, the testicular transcript levels of hsp90a, hsp90b, and hsp70 were higher in hot spring killifish than the river ones. The results of the common garden experiments showed that the transcripts of hsp70, hsp90b, and hmgb1 were mildly induced (> twofold) at the time when temperature reached to 37-40°C, while the transcripts of hsp90a were strongly induced (17-fold increase). The level of hsp90a was dramatically more upregulated when fish were maintained in thermal extreme (42-fold change higher than in ambient temperature). Moreover, a significant downregulation of gck transcripts was observed at the time when temperature was raised to 37-40°C (80-fold decrease) and during exposure to long-term thermal extreme (56-fold decrease). It can be concluded that the regulation of heat shock genes particularly hsp90a might be a key factor of the acclimation of fish to high temperature environments like hot springs.

  3. Comparison of heat stress metrics with modern, future, and past greenhouse climates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Buzan, J.; Goldner, A.; Huber, M.

    2012-04-01

    Heat stress is a function of temperature and humidity, and is subject to the covariance of the two quantities. One of the robust predictions from climate change is an increase in temperatures across the planet, and therefore heat stress is projected to increase. It has been proposed that in future climate, significant portions of the land surface become subject to life threatening heat stress levels to humans and mammals. We will use past greenhouse worlds and future contexts to show the evolution of these parameters in a suite of greenhouse climates. We map the correlation between relative humidity and heat stress metrics, such as the indoor Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT), utilizing the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Earth System Model (CESM). These metrics will be explored using a variety of different boundary conditions: pCO2 levels at 280, 560, 1120, 2240, and 4480 in conjunction with appropriate modern, Eocene, and Miocene continental configurations. Results will be used for an intercomparison with previous work on heat stress.

  4. Comparing the simulated extreme runoff characteristics for the past and the future in a small Hungarian catchment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kis, Anna; Pongrácz, Rita; Bartholy, Judit; Adolf Szabó, János

    2016-04-01

    Extreme hydrological phenomena (e.g. high and low flows) are caused by specific meteorological conditions. Therefore, climate change affecting these conditions may have a substantial influence on hydrological processes, and also, on associated droughts and floods, which can result in severe economical and ecosystems consequences. In order to mitigate these hazards, it is essential to prepare model-based estimations for future tendencies and build appropriate adaptation strategies in time. In this paper, we address the potential impacts of global climate change on hydrological extremes, considering the ~5700 km2 size catchment of Zagyva-Tarna, located in the northern part of Central Hungary. First, the spatially distributed, physically-based hydrological model (DIWA) is calibrated for the Zagyva-Tarna basin, using two-year long historical meteorological and runoff data. To analysing the past, the calibrated DIWA has been run for 1983-2003 using meteorological data provided by observations, the CarpatClim gridded database, and the RegCM4 regional climate model (taking into account new RCP scenarios). Then we compared the simulated runoff characteristics, and it could be concluded that RegCM4 substantially differs from observations. Thus, in order to eliminate these systematic errors, a percentile-based bias-correction method was applied to the raw RCM data, for which the CarpatClim database served as a reference. Finally, we compared the runoff characteristics of the past and the future, considering the observations, the CarpatClim database as well, as the raw and the bias-corrected RCM data.

  5. Frequency of Extreme Heat Event as a Surrogate Exposure Metric for Examining the Human Health Effects of Climate Change.

    PubMed

    Romeo Upperman, Crystal; Parker, Jennifer; Jiang, Chengsheng; He, Xin; Murtugudde, Raghuram; Sapkota, Amir

    2015-01-01

    Epidemiological investigation of the impact of climate change on human health, particularly chronic diseases, is hindered by the lack of exposure metrics that can be used as a marker of climate change that are compatible with health data. Here, we present a surrogate exposure metric created using a 30-year baseline (1960-1989) that allows users to quantify long-term changes in exposure to frequency of extreme heat events with near unabridged spatial coverage in a scale that is compatible with national/state health outcome data. We evaluate the exposure metric by decade, seasonality, area of the country, and its ability to capture long-term changes in weather (climate), including natural climate modes. Our findings show that this generic exposure metric is potentially useful to monitor trends in the frequency of extreme heat events across varying regions because it captures long-term changes; is sensitive to the natural climate modes (ENSO events); responds well to spatial variability, and; is amenable to spatial/temporal aggregation, making it useful for epidemiological studies.

  6. Survival of the faucet snail after chemical disinfection, pH extremes, and heated water bath treatments

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Mitchell, A.J.; Cole, R.A.

    2008-01-01

    The faucet snail Bithynia tentaculata, a nonindigenous aquatic snail from Eurasia, was introduced into Lake Michigan in 1871 and has spread to the mid-Atlantic states, the Great Lakes region, Montana, and most recently, the Mississippi River. The faucet snail serves as intermediate host for several trematodes that have caused large-scale mortality among water birds, primarily in the Great Lakes region and Montana. It is important to limit the spread of the faucet snail; small fisheries equipment can serve as a method of snail distribution. Treatments with chemical disinfection, pH extremes, and heated water baths were tested to determine their effectiveness as a disinfectant for small fisheries equipment. Two treatments eliminated all test snails: (1) a 24-h exposure to Hydrothol 191 at a concentration of at least 20 mg/L and (2) a treatment with 50??C heated water for 1 min or longer. Faucet snails were highly resistant to ethanol, NaCl, formalin, Lysol, potassium permanganate, copper sulfate, Baquacil, Virkon, household bleach, and pH extremes (as low as 1 and as high as 13).

  7. Frequency of Extreme Heat Event as a Surrogate Exposure Metric for Examining the Human Health Effects of Climate Change

    PubMed Central

    Romeo Upperman, Crystal; Parker, Jennifer; Jiang, Chengsheng; He, Xin; Murtugudde, Raghuram; Sapkota, Amir

    2015-01-01

    Epidemiological investigation of the impact of climate change on human health, particularly chronic diseases, is hindered by the lack of exposure metrics that can be used as a marker of climate change that are compatible with health data. Here, we present a surrogate exposure metric created using a 30-year baseline (1960–1989) that allows users to quantify long-term changes in exposure to frequency of extreme heat events with near unabridged spatial coverage in a scale that is compatible with national/state health outcome data. We evaluate the exposure metric by decade, seasonality, area of the country, and its ability to capture long-term changes in weather (climate), including natural climate modes. Our findings show that this generic exposure metric is potentially useful to monitor trends in the frequency of extreme heat events across varying regions because it captures long-term changes; is sensitive to the natural climate modes (ENSO events); responds well to spatial variability, and; is amenable to spatial/temporal aggregation, making it useful for epidemiological studies. PMID:26641244

  8. The biophysical and physiological basis for mitigated elevations in heart rate with electric fan use in extreme heat and humidity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ravanelli, Nicholas M.; Gagnon, Daniel; Hodder, Simon G.; Havenith, George; Jay, Ollie

    2016-07-01

    Electric fan use in extreme heat wave conditions has been thought to be disadvantageous because it might accelerate heat gain to the body via convection. However, it has been recently shown that fan use delays increases in heart rate even at high temperatures (42 °C) in young adults. We here assess the biophysical and physiological mechanisms underlying the apparently beneficial effects of fan use. Eight males (24 ± 3 y; 80.7 ± 11.7 kg; 2.0 ± 0.1 m2) rested at either 36 °C or 42 °C, with (F) or without (NF) electric fan use (4.2 m/s) for 120 min while humidity increased every 7.5 min by 0.3 kPa from a baseline value of 1.6 kPa. Heart rate (HR), local sweat rate (LSR), cutaneous vascular conductance (CVC), core and mean skin temperatures, and the combined convective/radiative heat loss (C+R), evaporative heat balance requirements (Ereq) and maximum evaporative potential (Emax) were assessed. C+R was greater with fan use at 36 °C (F 8 ± 6, NF 2 ± 2 W/m2; P = 0.04) and more negative (greater dry heat gain) with fan use at 42 °C (F -78 ± 4, NF -27 ± 2 W/m2; P < 0.01). Consequently, Ereq was lower at 36 °C (F 38 ± 16, NF 45 ± 3 W/m2; P = 0.04) and greater at 42 °C (F 125 ± 1, NF 74 ± 3 W/m2; P < 0.01) with fan use. However, fan use resulted in a greater Emax at baseline humidity at both 36 °C (F 343 ± 10, NF 153 ± 5 W/m2; P < 0.01) and 42 °C (F 376 ± 13, NF 161 ± 4 W/m2; P < 0.01) and throughout the incremental increases in humidity. Within the humidity range that a rise in HR was prevented by fan use but not without a fan, LSR was higher in NF at both 36 °C (P = 0.04) and 42 °C (P = 0.05), and skin temperature was higher in NF at 42 °C (P = 0.05), but no differences in CVC or core temperatures were observed (all P > 0.05). These results suggest that the delayed increase in heart rate with fan use during extreme heat and humidity is associated with improved evaporative efficiency.

  9. Extreme degree of ionization in homogenous micro-capillary plasma columns heated by ultrafast current pulses.

    PubMed

    Avaria, G; Grisham, M; Li, J; Tomasel, F G; Shlyaptsev, V N; Busquet, M; Woolston, M; Rocca, J J

    2015-03-01

    Homogeneous plasma columns with ionization levels typical of megaampere discharges are created by rapidly heating gas-filled 520-μm-diameter channels with nanosecond rise time current pulses of 40 kA. Current densities of up to 0.3  GA cm^{-2} greatly increase Joule heating with respect to conventional capillary discharge Z pinches, reaching unprecedented degrees of ionization for a high-Z plasma column heated by a current pulse of remarkably low amplitude. Dense xenon plasmas are ionized to Xe^{28+}, while xenon impurities in hydrogen discharges reach Xe^{30+}. The unique characteristics of these hot, ∼300:1 length-to-diameter aspect ratio plasmas allow the observation of unexpected spectroscopic phenomena. Axial spectra show the unusual dominance of the intercombination line over the resonance line of He-like Al by nearly an order of magnitude, caused by differences in opacities in the axial and radial directions. These plasma columns could enable the development of sub-10-nm x-ray lasers. PMID:25793819

  10. Extreme Degree of Ionization in Homogenous Micro-Capillary Plasma Columns Heated by Ultrafast Current Pulses

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Avaria, G.; Grisham, M.; Li, J.; Tomasel, F. G.; Shlyaptsev, V. N.; Busquet, M.; Woolston, M.; Rocca, J. J.

    2015-03-01

    Homogeneous plasma columns with ionization levels typical of megaampere discharges are created by rapidly heating gas-filled 520 -μ m -diameter channels with nanosecond rise time current pulses of 40 kA. Current densities of up to 0.3 GA cm-2 greatly increase Joule heating with respect to conventional capillary discharge Z pinches, reaching unprecedented degrees of ionization for a high-Z plasma column heated by a current pulse of remarkably low amplitude. Dense xenon plasmas are ionized to Xe28 + , while xenon impurities in hydrogen discharges reach Xe30 + . The unique characteristics of these hot, ˜300 :1 length-to-diameter aspect ratio plasmas allow the observation of unexpected spectroscopic phenomena. Axial spectra show the unusual dominance of the intercombination line over the resonance line of He-like Al by nearly an order of magnitude, caused by differences in opacities in the axial and radial directions. These plasma columns could enable the development of sub-10-nm x-ray lasers.

  11. SISGR - In situ characterization and modeling of formation reactions under extreme heating rates in nanostructured multilayer foils

    SciTech Connect

    Hufnagel, Todd C.

    2014-06-09

    Materials subjected to extreme conditions, such as very rapid heating, behave differently than materials under more ordinary conditions. In this program we examined the effect of rapid heating on solid-state chemical reactions in metallic materials. One primary goal was to develop experimental techniques capable of observing these reactions, which can occur at heating rates in excess of one million degrees Celsius per second. One approach that we used is x-ray diffraction performed using microfocused x-ray beams and very fast x-ray detectors. A second approach is the use of a pulsed electron source for dynamic transmission electron microscopy. With these techniques we were able to observe how the heating rate affects the chemical reaction, from which we were able to discern general principles about how these reactions proceed. A second thrust of this program was to develop computational tools to help us understand and predict the reactions. From atomic-scale simulations were learned about the interdiffusion between different metals at high heating rates, and about how new crystalline phases form. A second class of computational models allow us to predict the shape of the reaction front that occurs in these materials, and to connect our understanding of interdiffusion from the atomistic simulations to measurements made in the laboratory. Both the experimental and computational techniques developed in this program are expected to be broadly applicable to a wider range of scientific problems than the intermetallic solid-state reactions studied here. For example, we have already begun using the x-ray techniques to study how materials respond to mechanical deformation at very high rates.

  12. Cooling vests with phase change materials: the effects of melting temperature on heat strain alleviation in an extremely hot environment.

    PubMed

    Gao, Chuansi; Kuklane, Kalev; Holmér, Ingvar

    2011-06-01

    A previous study by the authors using a heated thermal manikin showed that the cooling rates of phase change material (PCM) are dependent on temperature gradient, mass, and covering area. The objective of this study was to investigate if the cooling effects of the temperature gradient observed on a thermal manikin could be validated on human subjects in extreme heat. The subjects wore cooling vests with PCMs at two melting temperatures (24 and 28°C) and fire-fighting clothing and equipment, thus forming three test groups (vest24, vest28 and control group without the vest). They walked on a treadmill at a speed of 5 km/h in a climatic chamber (air temperature = 55°C, relative humidity = 30%, vapour pressure = 4,725 Pa, and air velocity = 0.4 m/s). The results showed that the PCM vest with a lower melting temperature (24°C) has a stronger cooling effect on the torso and mean skin temperatures than that with a higher melting temperature (28°C). Both PCM vests mitigate peak core temperature increase during the resting recovery period. The two PCM vests tested, however, had no significant effect on the alleviation of core temperature increase during exercise in the heat. To study the possibility of effective cooling of core temperature, cooling garments with PCMs at even lower melting temperatures (e.g. 15°C) and a larger covering area should be investigated.

  13. Extreme Heat Resistance of Food Borne Pathogens Campylobacter jejuni, Escherichia coli, and Salmonella typhimurium on Chicken Breast Fillet during Cooking.

    PubMed

    de Jong, Aarieke E I; van Asselt, Esther D; Zwietering, Marcel H; Nauta, Maarten J; de Jonge, Rob

    2012-01-01

    The aim of this research was to determine the decimal reduction times of bacteria present on chicken fillet in boiling water. The experiments were conducted with Campylobacter jejuni, Salmonella, and Escherichia coli. Whole chicken breast fillets were inoculated with the pathogens, stored overnight (4°C), and subsequently cooked. The surface temperature reached 70°C within 30 sec and 85°C within one minute. Extremely high decimal reduction times of 1.90, 1.97, and 2.20 min were obtained for C. jejuni, E. coli, and S. typhimurium, respectively. Chicken meat and refrigerated storage before cooking enlarged the heat resistance of the food borne pathogens. Additionally, a high challenge temperature or fast heating rate contributed to the level of heat resistance. The data were used to assess the probability of illness (campylobacteriosis) due to consumption of chicken fillet as a function of cooking time. The data revealed that cooking time may be far more critical than previously assumed.

  14. Design of an Extreme Ultraviolet Spectrometer Suite for Isochoric-Heated Warm-Dense-Matter Studies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ivancic, S.; Stillman, C. R.; Nilson, P. M.; Froula, D. H.

    2015-11-01

    An ultrafast streaked extreme ultraviolet (XUV) spectrometer (5 to 35 nm) is in development for the measurement of warm dense matter (WDM). In contrast to other forms of pyrometry where the temperature is inferred from bulk x-ray emission, XUV emission is restricted to the sample surface, allowing for the measurement of temperature at the material-vacuum interface. The measurement of the surface temperature is of particular importance in constraining models for the release of WDM. The divergence of surface and bulk temperature measurements may indicate gradients in temperature in the target. Coupling the XUV spectrometer to an ultrafast streak camera allows for the observation of picosecond time-scale evolution of the surface layer temperature. Two high-throughput XUV spectrometers are being designed to measure the time-resolved and absolute XUV emission. This material is based upon work supported by the Department of Energy National Nuclear Security Administration under Award Number DE-NA0001944.

  15. Historical and potential future impacts of extreme hydrological events on the Amazonian floodplain hydrology and inundation dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Macedo, M.; Panday, P. K.; Coe, M. T.; Lefebvre, P.; Castello, L.

    2015-12-01

    The Amazonian floodplains and wetlands cover one fifth of the basin and are highly productive promoting diverse biological communities and sustaining human populations with fisheries. Seasonal inundation of the floodplains fluctuates in response to drought or extreme rainfall as observed in the recent droughts of 2005 and 2010 where river levels dropped to among the lowest recorded. We model and evaluate the historical (1940-2010) and projected future (2010-2100) impacts of droughts and floods on the floodplain hydrology and inundation dynamics in the central Amazon using the Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS) and the Terrestrial Hydrology Model and Biogeochemistry (THMB). Simulated discharge correlates well with observed discharges for tributaries originating in Brazil but underestimates basins draining regions in the non-Brazilian Amazon (Solimões, Japuŕa, Madeira, and Negro) by greater than 30%. A volume bias-correction from the simulated and observed runoff was used to correct the input precipitation across the major tributaries of the Amazon basin that drain the Andes. Simulated hydrological parameters (discharge, inundated area and river height) using corrected precipitation has a strong correlation with field measured discharge at gauging stations, surface water extent data (Global Inundation Extent from Multi-Satellites (GIEMS) and NASA Earth System Data Records (ESDRs) for inundation), and satellite radar altimetry (TOPEX/POSEIDON altimeter data for 1992-1998 and ENVISAT data for 2002-2010). We also used an ensemble of model outputs participating in the IPCC AR5 to drive two sets of simulations with and without carbon dioxide fertilization for the 2006-2100 period, and evaluated the potential scale and variability of future changes in discharge and inundation dynamics due to the influences of climate change and vegetation response to carbon dioxide fertilization. Preliminary modeled results for future scenarios using Representative Concentration

  16. Effect of cold water and inverse lighting on growth performance of broiler chickens under extreme heat stress.

    PubMed

    Park, Sang-oh; Park, Byung-sung; Hwangbo, Jong

    2015-07-01

    The present study was carried out to investigate the effect of provision of extreme heat stress diet (EHD), inverse lighting, cold water on growth performance of broiler chickens exposed to extreme heat stress. The chickens were divided into four treatment groups, (T1, T2, T3, T4) as given below: Ti (EHD 1, 10:00-19:00 dark, 19:00-10:00 light, cool water 9 degrees C); T2 (EHD 2, 10:00-19:00 dark, 19:00-10:00 light, cool water 9 degrees C); T3 (EHD 1, 09:00-18:00 dark, 18:00-09:00 light, cool water 141C); T4 (EHD 2, 09:00-18:00 dark, 18:00-09:00 light, cool water 14 degrees C. EHD 1 contained soybean oil, molasses, methionine and lysine; EHD 2 contained the same ingredients as EHD 1 with addition of vitamin C. Groups T1 and T2 were given cooler water than the othertwo groups, and displayed higher body weight increase and diet intake as compared to T3 and T4 (p<0.05). The weights of their liver and gizzard were similar but the weights of the thymus and bursa of fabricius (F) were higher in groups T1 and T2 (p<0.05). It was observed that groups T1 and T2 displayed higher concentrations of blood triglyceride, total cholesterol, HDL-cholesterol and blood sugar as compared to T3 and T4; however LDL-cholesterol level was higher in groups T3 and T4 (p<0.05). T1 and T2 displayed higher levels of immunity substances such as IgG, IgAand IgM as compared to T3 and T4, but the blood level of corticosterone was lower in groups T1 and T2 (p<0.05). Ti and T2 contained higher amount of fecal Lactobacill as compared to T3 and T4; howeverT3 and T4 contained higher amount of fecal E. coli, total aerobic bacteria and coliform bacteria (p<0.05). Groups T1 and T2 displayed higher concentrations of cecal total short chain fatty acids, acetic acid and propionic acid but groups T3 and T4 displayed higher concentrations of butyric acid, isobutyric acid, valeric acid and isovaleric acid (p<0.05). The present study reports novel results such that the supply of extreme heat stress diet, inverse

  17. Climate change impacts on extreme events in the United States: an uncertainty analysis

    EPA Science Inventory

    Extreme weather and climate events, such as heat waves, droughts and severe precipitation events, have substantial impacts on ecosystems and the economy. However, future climate simulations display large uncertainty in mean changes. As a result, the uncertainty in future changes ...

  18. Heat wave beats green wave: the effect of a climate extreme on alpine grassland phenology as seen by phenocams

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cremonese, Edoardo; Filippa, Gianluca; Migliavacca, Mirco; Siniscalco, Consolata; Oddi, Ludovica; Galvagno, Marta

    2016-04-01

    The year 2015 has been one of the warmest on record for many regions of the world. The record-breaking temperatures did not spare the European Alps, where the summer anomaly reached +4°C. This heat wave caused important impacts on the seasonal development and structural properties of alpine grasslands that deserve investigations. Phenocams are useful tools to describe canopy greenness seasonal dynamics and many recent studies demonstrated that the major phenological events (e.g. budbrust, senescence, …) can be extracted from greenness trajectories. In contrast, little is know about their capabilities to describe the impact of extreme climate events on a fully developed canopy. Moreover the relation between quantitative structural and functional vegetation properties (e.g. biomass, LAI, …) and phenocam data remains poorly investigated. In this study we examine the impact of the 2015 summer heat wave on a subalpine grassland by jointly analyzing phenocam greenness trajectories, proximal sensing and flux data together with field measures of vegetation structural properties. The effect of different environmental drivers on greenness seasonal development was further evaluated by a modeling approach (GSI model). Phenocam tracked the impact of heatwave 2015 that caused a lower canopy development and an anticipation of yellowing by more than 2 months. The same pattern was observed for CO2 fluxes, NDVI and field measures. GSI model results show that during the heatwave, a combination of moisture and high temperature limitation was responsible for the observed reduction of the canopy development. Moreover, spatially explicit analysis of digital images allowed to highlight the differential response of specific plant functional types to the extreme event.

  19. Understanding the 2013 Boulder Flood: Assessing Extreme Precipitation Events and Future Climates in the Community Earth System Model (CESM)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Adams, R.; Neale, R. B.

    2014-12-01

    The Boulder flood of September 2013 resulted in significant structural damage, inundated communities, and accelerated land erosion in central and northern Colorado. This exceptional event led to approximately 11,000 people being evacuated in the area as more than 17 inches of rain fell in parts of Boulder County, Colorado in seven days. This storm resulted from persistent southerly flow and high precipitable water values which were responsible for the record-breaking precipitation. This study assessed the factors associated with extreme precipitation events in both observations and climate model simulations. Satellite-based observed precipitation from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission, and ERA-Interim Reanalysis of precipitable water and low-level winds were used in this study. Probability distribution functions (PDFs) were calculated for daily values of observational and reanalysis variables: precipitation, precipitable water, and low-level winds. Each of the PDFs were compared with equivalent variables in the CESM simulations and analyzed over three regions of different areal extent occupying the eastern Rocky Mountains. The PDF calculations were found to be sensitive to the choice of the spatial region with fewer high precipitable water events in the northern domain and a greater number of high precipitable water events in the more southerly domain. The similarities between observational and present-day CESM PDFs enabled us to study changes to PDF distributions in future climate simulations. They predict a significant increase in precipitable water over the Boulder flood region. Given the importance of high precipitable water in the 2013 Boulder flood precipitation event, the potential for more frequent and stronger flooding events in the future is significant.

  20. The contribution of urbanization to recent extreme heat events and a potential mitigation strategy in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei metropolitan area

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Mingna; Yan, Xiaodong; Liu, Jiyuan; Zhang, Xuezhen

    2013-11-01

    This paper addresses the contribution of urban land use change to near-surface air temperature during the summer extreme heat events of the early twenty-first century in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei metropolitan area. This study uses the Weather Research Forecasting model with a single urban canopy model and the newest actual urban cover datasets. The results show that urban land use characteristics that have evolved over the past ~20 years in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei metropolitan area have had a significant impact on the extreme temperatures occurring during extreme heat events. Simulations show that new urban development has caused an intensification and expansion of the areas experiencing extreme heat waves with an average increase in temperature of approximately 0.60 °C. This change is most obvious at night with an increase up to 0.95 °C, for which the total contribution of anthropogenic heat is 34 %. We also simulate the effects of geo-engineering strategies increasing the albedo of urban roofs, an effective way of reducing urban heat island, which can reduce the urban mean temperature by approximately 0.51 °C and counter approximately 80 % of the heat wave results from urban sprawl during the last 20 years.

  1. Extreme thermotolerance and behavioral induction of 70-kDa heat shock proteins and their encoding genes in honey bees

    PubMed Central

    2008-01-01

    Foraging honey bees frequently leave the hive to gather pollen and nectar for the colony. This period of their lives is marked by periodic extremes of body temperature, metabolic expenditure, and flight muscle activity. Following ecologically relevant episodes of hyperthermia between 33°C and 50°C, heat shock protein 70 (Hsp70) expression and hsp70/hsc70-4 activity in brains of nonflying laboratory-held bees increased by only two to three times baseline at temperatures 46–50°C. Induction was undetectable in thoracic–flight muscles. Yet, thorax hsp70 mRNA (but not hsc70-4 mRNA) levels were up to ten times higher in flight-capable hive bees and foraging bees compared to 1-day-old, flight-incapable bees, while brain hsp70/hsc70-4 mRNA levels were low and varied little among behavioral groups. These data suggest honey bee tissues, especially flight muscles, are extremely thermotolerant. Furthermore, Hsp70 expression in the thoraces of flight-capable bees is probably flight-induced by oxidative and mechanical damage to flight muscle proteins rather than temperature. PMID:18696260

  2. Controversial cytogenetic observations in mammalian somatic cells exposed to extremely low frequency electromagnetic radiation: a review and future research recommendations.

    PubMed

    Vijayalaxmi; Obe, Guenter

    2005-07-01

    During the years 1990-2003, a large number of investigations were conducted using animals, cultured rodent and human cells as well as freshly collected human blood lymphocytes to determine the genotoxic potential of exposure to nonionizing radiation emitted from extremely low frequency electromagnetic fields (EMF). Among the 63 peer reviewed scientific reports, the conclusions from 29 studies (46%) did not indicate increased damage to the genetic material, as assessed from DNA strand breaks, incidence of chromosomal aberrations (CA), micronuclei (MN), and sister chromatid exchanges (SCE), in EMF exposed cells as compared with sham exposed and/or unexposed cells, while those from 14 investigations (22%) have suggested an increase in such damage in EMF exposed cells. The observations from 20 other studies (32%) were inconclusive. This study reviews the investigations published in peer reviewed scientific journals during 1990-2003 and attempts to identify probable reason(s) for the conflicting results. Recommendations are made for future research to address some of the controversial observations.

  3. Extreme ultra-violet burst, particle heating, and whistler wave emission in fast magnetic reconnection induced by kink-driven Rayleigh-Taylor instability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chai, Kil-Byoung; Zhai, Xiang; Bellan, Paul M.

    2016-03-01

    A spatially localized energetic extreme ultra-violet (EUV) burst is imaged at the presumed position of fast magnetic reconnection in a plasma jet produced by a coaxial helicity injection source; this EUV burst indicates strong localized electron heating. A circularly polarized high frequency magnetic field perturbation is simultaneously observed at some distance from the reconnection region indicating that the reconnection emits whistler waves and that Hall dynamics likely governs the reconnection. Spectroscopic measurement shows simultaneous fast ion heating. The electron heating is consistent with Ohmic dissipation, while the ion heating is consistent with ion trajectories becoming stochastic.

  4. Physiologic monitoring in extreme environments: application of microsensors and embedded processors to predict heat stress in fire fighters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Van Gelder, Carin; Pranger, L. Alex; Urias, Adrian R.; Lo, Ronalee; Wiesmann, William P.; Winchell, Robert J.; Kolka, Margaret A.; Stachenfeld, Nina; Bogucki, Sandy

    2002-05-01

    Interior structural firefighting involves heavy physical exertion under extreme environmental conditions. Personal protective clothing and equipment impose 50 lbs of weight on fire fighters and impede the evaporative cooling mechanisms normally responsible for thermoregulation during exercise. The intense heat of the fire ground further exacerbates the physiological stress on working fire fighters. Occupational morbidity and mortality statistics reflect the impact of such stressors on fire service personnel. Non-invasive physiological monitoring capabilities are needed to more precisely define the cardiovascular responses to the demands of fire fighting and identify markers of impending failure of compensatory mechanisms prior to collapse or onset of irreversible pathology. A suite of sensors designed to provide continuous remote monitoring of fire fighters has been developed. Oximetry sensors are incorporated into SCBA facemask to allow unencumbered monitoring and analysis of cardiovascular and pulmonary function. The present report also describes a model system for physiological studies of fire fighting. This system comprises a series of timed simulations of fire ground tasks performed by fire fighters in a heated environmental chamber. Preliminary testing confirms the feasibility of reliable oximetry signal acquisition under fire ground conditions.

  5. Combined Heat and Power: A Decade of Progress, A Vision for the Future

    SciTech Connect

    none,

    2009-08-01

    Over the past 10 years, DOE has built a solid foundation for a robust CHP marketplace. We have aligned with key partners to produce innovative technologies and spearhead market-transforming projects. Our commercialization activities and Clean Energy Regional Application Centers have expanded CHP across the nation. More must be done to tap CHP’s full potential. Read more about DOE’s CHP Program in “Combined Heat and Power: A Decade of Progress, A Vision for the Future.”

  6. Impact of Anthropogenic Land Cover Change on Warm Temperature Extremes : the summer 2003 heat waves as a testbed

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stéfanon, M.

    2013-12-01

    Events similar to the 2003 mega heat wave will be likely more frequent, intense and longer by the end of the 21st century owing to enhanced atmospheric greenhouse-gas concentrations. Policies for climate mitigation privileges carbon sequestration techniques while land cover change (LCC) may be a preferred alternative in terms of environmental impact, where geography permits. Biogeophysical factors such as albedo, evapotranspiration, and surface roughness may have locally the potential to offset the biogeochemical impact of increased greenhouse-gas. However, so far the set of existing (but not consistent) LCC impact studies conducted in the Mediterranean have contradictory results on summer temperature (cooling or warming). Using the Model of the Regional Coupled Earth system (MORCE), the impact of an afforestation scenario (POT) is conducted for both 2002 and 2003 years, and compared to an agricultural scenario (CUR). The favorable meteorological conditions in spring 2003 fasten the development of agricultural vegetation in CUR compared to a) conditions in 2002, and b) to the development of trees in POT. This greater photosynthetic capacity of crops, followed by larger evapotranspiration rates, dampens the extreme values of temperature from April to the end of June 2003 (locally by 3°C) and more specifically during the June heat-wave (locally by 1.6°C). It contributes to increase the differences between POT and CUR in 2003 compared to 2002. In July vegetation starts to get limited by soil moisture, and agricultural plants are most affected than trees because of their shallower roots. From early July to October, trees are not too water limited. They can still evaporate, while water stress in CUR makes croplands contribute to enhance the warm summer temperatures, especially in 2003. The very hot summer 2003 July-August temperatures are therefore amplified (resp. dampened) by the presence of crops (resp. trees) in CUR (resp. POT). However this cooling capacity of

  7. The role of water vapor and its associated latent heating in extreme Beaufort coastal storm surge events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gyakum, J. R.; Small, D. L.; Atallah, E.; Liu, N.; Kuo, Y.

    2009-12-01

    During the rather limited ice-free season that typically may occur from late July through early October, the Beaufort Sea region is susceptible to extreme windstorms, many of which produce damaging storm surges to low-lying coastal communities. During the most recent years, the ice-free season has lengthened, suggesting an increased vulnerability of coastal communities to cyclogenesis-related windstorms. Therefore, our research focuses on the dynamic and thermodynamic mechanisms responsible for significant surface wind events during the ice-free season in this region. We demonstrate that these storm surge events are often associated with the generation of large-scale atmospheric circulation regomes conducive to North American droughts. Our analysis methodology includes the detailed synoptic-dynamic analysis, including numerical experiments, on a case of an especially long-lived extreme storm surge that occurred in September 1999. We utilize conventional surface and upper-air station data, along with satellite and ground-based water vapor data. We also utilize global and regional reanalysis data to document the synoptic-scale and mesoscale environments associated with the cyclogenesis events. Our numerical experiments with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model include sensitivity testing with COSMIC-derived water vapor data, and sensitivity tests to illustrate the relative roles that latent heating plays in the storm surge event, at various stages in its lifecycle. A particularly important finding of our research on the devastating September 1999 storm surge event is that a relatively rare case of explosive cyclogenesis in the Gulf of Alaska is a key player in this Beaufort storm surge. The deep-tropospheric latent heating during the explosive cyclogenesis generates a dynamic tropopause ridge. This ridge in turn induces surface ridging that contributes to the strong west-northwesterlies associated with the storm surge. This generation of the dynamic

  8. Thermal Modeling and Analysis of a Cryogenic Tank Design Exposed to Extreme Heating Profiles

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Stephens, Craig A.; Hanna, Gregory J.

    1991-01-01

    A cryogenic test article, the Generic Research Cryogenic Tank, was designed to qualitatively simulate the thermal response of transatmospheric vehicle fuel tanks exposed to the environment of hypersonic flight. One-dimensional and two-dimensional finite-difference thermal models were developed to simulate the thermal response and assist in the design of the Generic Research Cryogenic Tank. The one-dimensional thermal analysis determined the required insulation thickness to meet the thermal design criteria and located the purge jacket to eliminate the liquefaction of air. The two-dimensional thermal analysis predicted the temperature gradients developed within the pressure-vessel wall, estimated the cryogen boiloff, and showed the effects the ullage condition has on pressure-vessel temperatures. The degree of ullage mixing, location of the applied high-temperature profile, and the purge gas influence on insulation thermal conductivity had significant effects on the thermal behavior of the Generic Research Cryogenic Tank. In addition to analysis results, a description of the Generic Research Cryogenic Tank and the role it will play in future thermal structures and transatmospheric vehicle research at the NASA Dryden Flight Research Facility is presented.

  9. Thermal modeling and analysis of a cryogenic tank design exposed to extreme heating profiles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stephens, Craig A.; Hanna, Gregory J.

    1991-06-01

    A cryogenic test article, the Generic Research Cryogenic Tank, was designed to qualitatively simulate the thermal response of transatmospheric vehicle fuel tanks exposed to the environment of hypersonic flight. One-dimensional and two-dimensional finite-difference thermal models were developed to simulate the thermal response and assist in the design of the Generic Research Cryogenic Tank. The one-dimensional thermal analysis determined the required insulation thickness to meet the thermal design criteria and located the purge jacket to eliminate the liquefaction of air. The two-dimensional thermal analysis predicted the temperature gradients developed within the pressure-vessel wall, estimated the cryogen boiloff, and showed the effects the ullage condition has on pressure-vessel temperatures. The degree of ullage mixing, location of the applied high-temperature profile, and the purge gas influence on insulation thermal conductivity had significant effects on the thermal behavior of the Generic Research Cryogenic Tank. In addition to analysis results, a description of the Generic Research Cryogenic Tank and the role it will play in future thermal structures and transatmospheric vehicle research at the NASA Dryden Flight Research Facility is presented.

  10. Extremes of heat, drought and precipitation depress reproductive performance in shortgrass prairie passerines

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Conrey, Reesa Y.; Skagen, Susan; Yackel, Amy; Panjabi, Arvind O.

    2016-01-01

    Climate change elevates conservation concerns worldwide because it is likely to exacerbate many identified threats to animal populations. In recent decades, grassland birds have declined faster than other North American bird species, a loss thought to be due to habitat loss and fragmentation and changing agricultural practices. Climate change poses additional threats of unknown magnitude to these already declining populations. We examined how seasonal and daily weather conditions over 10 years influenced nest survival of five species of insectivorous passerines native to the shortgrass prairie and evaluate our findings relative to future climate predictions for this region. Daily nest survival (n = 870) was best predicted by a combination of daily and seasonal weather variables, age of nest, time in season and bird habitat guild. Within a season, survival rates were lower on very hot days (temperatures ≥ 35 °C), on dry days (with a lag of 1 day) and on stormy days (especially for those species nesting in shorter vegetation). Across years, survival rates were also lower during warmer and drier breeding seasons. Clutch sizes were larger when early spring temperatures were cool and the week prior to egg-laying was wetter and warming. Climate change is likely to exacerbate grassland bird population declines because projected climate conditions include rising temperatures, more prolonged drought and more intense storms as the hydrological cycle is altered. Under varying realistic scenarios, nest success estimates were halved compared to their current average value when models both increased the temperature (3 °C) and decreased precipitation (two additional dry days during a nesting period), thus underscoring a sense of urgency in identifying and addressing the current causes of range-wide declines.

  11. Anthropogenic changes to seawater buffer capacity combined with natural reef metabolism induce extreme future coral reef CO2 conditions.

    PubMed

    Shaw, Emily C; McNeil, Ben I; Tilbrook, Bronte; Matear, Richard; Bates, Michael L

    2013-05-01

    Ocean acidification, via an anthropogenic increase in seawater carbon dioxide (CO2 ), is potentially a major threat to coral reefs and other marine ecosystems. However, our understanding of how natural short-term diurnal CO2 variability in coral reefs influences longer term anthropogenic ocean acidification remains unclear. Here, we combine observed natural carbonate chemistry variability with future carbonate chemistry predictions for a coral reef flat in the Great Barrier Reef based on the RCP8.5 CO2 emissions scenario. Rather than observing a linear increase in reef flat partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2 ) in concert with rising atmospheric concentrations, the inclusion of in situ diurnal variability results in a highly nonlinear threefold amplification of the pCO2 signal by the end of the century. This significant nonlinear amplification of diurnal pCO2 variability occurs as a result of combining natural diurnal biological CO2 metabolism with long-term decreases in seawater buffer capacity, which occurs via increasing anthropogenic CO2 absorption by the ocean. Under the same benthic community composition, the amplification in the variability in pCO2 is likely to lead to exposure to mean maximum daily pCO2 levels of ca. 2100 μatm, with corrosive conditions with respect to aragonite by end-century at our study site. Minimum pCO2 levels will become lower relative to the mean offshore value (ca. threefold increase in the difference between offshore and minimum reef flat pCO2 ) by end-century, leading to a further increase in the pCO2 range that organisms are exposed to. The biological consequences of short-term exposure to these extreme CO2 conditions, coupled with elevated long-term mean CO2 conditions are currently unknown and future laboratory experiments will need to incorporate natural variability to test this. The amplification of pCO2 that we describe here is not unique to our study location, but will occur in all shallow coastal environments where high

  12. Intraday evaporation and heat fluxes variation at air-water interface of extremely shallow lakes in Chilean Andean Plateau

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vergara, Jaime; de la Fuente, Alberto

    2016-04-01

    Salars are landscapes formed by evapo-concentration of salts that usually have extremely shallow terminal lagoons (de la Fuente & Niño, 2010). They are located in the altiplanic region of the Andes Mountains of Chile, Argentina, Bolivia and Peru, and they sustain highly vulnerable and isolated ecosystems in the Andean Desert. These ecosystems are sustained by benthic primary production, which is directly linked to mass, heat and momentum transfer between the water column and the atmosphere (de la Fuente, 2014). Despite the importance of these transport processes across the air-water interface, there are few studies describing their intraday variation and how they are influenced by the stability of the atmospheric boundary layer in the altiplano. The main objective of this work is to analyze the intraday vertical transport variation of water vapor, temperature and momentum between the atmosphere and a shallow water body on Salar del Huasco located in northern Chile (20°19'40"S, 68°51'25"W). To achieve this goal, we measured atmospheric and water variables in a campaign realized on late October 2015, using high frequency meteorological instruments (a sonic anemometer with an incorporated infrared gas analyzer, and a standard meteorological station) and water sensors. From these data, we characterize the intraday variation of water vapor, temperature and momentum fluxes, we quantify the influence of the atmospheric boundary layer stability on them, and we estimate transfer coefficients associated to latent heat, sensible heat, hydrodynamic drag and vertical transport of water vapor. As first results, we found that latent and sensible heat fluxes are highly influenced by wind speed rather buoyancy, and we can identify four intraday intervals with different thermo-hydrodynamic features: (1) cooling under stable condition with wind speed near 0 from midnight until sunrise; (2) free convection with nearly no wind speed under unstable condition from sunrise until midday

  13. Southern Ocean heat and carbon uptake: mechanisms, recent trends, and future changes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Froelicher, T. L.

    2015-12-01

    The Southern Ocean's dominant influence on the global heat balance and nutrient and carbon cycles stems from the fact that it is the primary gateway through which Earth's cold, centuries old and nutrient rich deep and bottom waters interact with the atmosphere. The westerly winds in the Southern Hemisphere drive a strongly divergent surface flow that draws up water from below in a wide ring circling the Antarctic continent. In the first part of the talk, we assess the uptake, transport, and storage of oceanic anthropogenic carbon and heat in the Southern Ocean over the period 1861-2005 in a new set of carbon-climate Earth System Models. Simulations show that the Southern Ocean south of 30°S, covering only 30% of the global surface ocean area, accounts for more than 40% of global anthropogenic carbon uptake. Furthermore, the Southern Ocean takes up three quarters of the total excess heat generated by the increasing levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Anthropogenic carbon and heat storage show a common broad-scale pattern of change, but ocean heat storage is more structured than ocean carbon storage suggesting that different mechanisms are important. The Southern Ocean, however, remains the region where models differ the most in the representation of anthropogenic carbon and, in particular, heat uptake. While the Southern Ocean carbon uptake has increased considerably in recent decades, as expected based on the substantial increase in atmospheric CO2, there is considerable concern that this sink will saturate or even reverse in response to warming, changing ocean circulation and chemistry. In the second part of the talk, novel multi-millennial global warming simulations with a comprehensive Earth System Model under a 1% yr-1 atmospheric CO2 increase to 2xCO2 and constant forcing thereafter scenario will be used to explore future long-term changes in the Southern Ocean carbon uptake. We show that after full equilibration of the model with doubling of

  14. Computed and observed turbulent heat fluxes during an extreme Bora event in the Adriatic using atmosphere-ocean coupling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ličer, Matjaž; Smerkol, Peter; Fettich, Anja; Ravdas, Michalis; Papapostolou, Alexandros; Mantziafou, Anneta; Strajnar, Benedikt; Cedilnik, Jure; Jeromel, Maja; Jerman, Jure; Petan, Sašo; Benetazzo, Alvise; Carniel, Sandro; Malačič, Vlado; Sofianos, Sarantis

    2016-04-01

    We have studied the performances of (a) a two-way coupled atmosphere-ocean modeling system and (b) one-way coupled ocean model (forced by the atmosphere model), as compared to the available in situ measurements during and after a strong Adriatic Bora wind event in February 2012, which led to extreme air-sea interactions. The simulations span the period between January and March 2012. The models used were ALADIN (4.4 km resolution) on the atmosphere side and Adriatic setup of POM (1°/30 × 1°/30 angular resolution) on the ocean side. The atmosphere-ocean coupling was implemented using the OASIS3-MCT model coupling toolkit. Two-way coupling ocean feedback to the atmosphere is limited to sea surface temperature. We have compared modeled atmosphere-ocean fluxes (computed using modified Louis scheme) and sea temperatures from both setups to platform and CTD measurements of fluxes (computed using COARE scheme) and temperatures from three observational platforms (Vida, Paloma, Acqua Alta) in the Northern Adriatic. We show that turbulent fluxes from both setups differ up to 20% during the Bora but not significantly before and after the event. The impact of the coupling on the ocean is significant while the impact on the atmosphere is less pronounced. When compared to observations, two way coupling ocean temperatures exhibit a four times lower RMSE than those from one-way coupled system. Two-way coupling improves sensible heat fluxes at all stations but does not improve latent heat loss.

  15. Exposure to extreme heat events is associated with increased hay fever prevalence among nationally represntatvie sample of us, Adults: 1997-2013

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Warmer temperature can alter seasonality of pollen as well as pollen concentration, and may impact allergic diseases such as hay fever. Recent studies suggest that extreme heat events will likely increase in frequency, intensity, and duration in coming decades. The overall objective of this study i...

  16. Identifying the Drivers and Occurrence of Historical and Future Extreme Air-quality Events in the United States Using Advanced Statistical Techniques

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Porter, W. C.; Heald, C. L.; Cooley, D. S.; Russell, B. T.

    2013-12-01

    Episodes of air-quality extremes are known to be heavily influenced by meteorological conditions, but traditional statistical analysis techniques focused on means and standard deviations may not capture important relationships at the tails of these two respective distributions. Using quantile regression (QR) and extreme value theory (EVT), methodologies specifically developed to examine the behavior of heavy-tailed phenomena, we analyze extremes in the multi-decadal record of ozone (O3) and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) in the United States. We investigate observations from the Air Quality System (AQS) and Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments (IMPROVE) networks for connections to meteorological drivers, as provided by the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) product. Through regional characterization by quantile behavior and EVT modeling of the meteorological covariates most responsible for extreme levels of O3 and PM2.5, we estimate pollutant exceedance frequencies and uncertainties in the United States under current and projected future climates, highlighting those meteorological covariates and interactions whose influence on air-quality extremes differs most significantly from the behavior of the bulk of the distribution. As current policy may be influenced by air-quality projections, we then compare these estimated frequencies to those produced by NCAR's Community Earth System Model (CESM) identifying regions, covariates, and species whose extreme behavior may not be adequately captured by current models.

  17. Downscaling future precipitation extremes to urban hydrology scales using a spatio-temporal Neyman-Scott weather generator

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jomo Danielsen Sørup, Hjalte; Bøssing Christensen, Ole; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Steen Mikkelsen, Peter

    2016-04-01

    Spatio-temporal precipitation is modelled for urban application at 1 h temporal resolution on a 2 km grid using a spatio-temporal Neyman-Scott rectangular pulses weather generator (WG). Precipitation time series used as input to the WG are obtained from a network of 60 tipping-bucket rain gauges irregularly placed in a 40 km × 60 km model domain. The WG simulates precipitation time series that are comparable to the observations with respect to extreme precipitation statistics. The WG is used for downscaling climate change signals from regional climate models (RCMs) with spatial resolutions of 25 and 8 km, respectively. Six different RCM simulation pairs are used to perturb the WG with climate change signals resulting in six very different perturbation schemes. All perturbed WGs result in more extreme precipitation at the sub-daily to multi-daily level and these extremes exhibit a much more realistic spatial pattern than what is observed in RCM precipitation output. The WG seems to correlate increased extreme intensities with an increased spatial extent of the extremes meaning that the climate-change-perturbed extremes have a larger spatial extent than those of the present climate. Overall, the WG produces robust results and is seen as a reliable procedure for downscaling RCM precipitation output for use in urban hydrology.

  18. Assessing risks from drought and heat stress in productive grasslands under present and future climatic conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Calanca, Pierluigi; Mosimann, Eric; Meisser, Marco; Deléglise, Claire

    2014-05-01

    Grasslands cover the majority of the world's agricultural area, provide the feedstock for animal production, contribute to the economy of farms, and deliver a variety of ecological and societal services. Assessing responses of grassland ecosystems to climate change, in particular climate-related risks, is therefore an important step toward identifying adaptation options necessary to secure grassland functioning and productivity. Of particular concern are risks in relation to drought and extreme temperatures, on the one hand because grasslands are very sensitive to water stress, on the other hand also because global warming is expected to increase the occurrence and intensity of these events in many agricultural areas of the world. In this contribution we review findings of ongoing experimental and modelling activities that aim at examining the implications of climate extremes and climate change for grassland vegetation dynamics and herbage productivity. Data collected at the Jura foot in western Switzerland indicate that water scarcity and associated anomalous temperatures slowed plant development in relation to both the summer drought of 2003 as well as the spring drought of 2011, with decline in annual yields of up to 40%. Further effects of drought found from the analysis of recent field trials explicitly designed to study the effects of different water management regimes are changes in the functional composition and nutritive value of grasslands. Similar responses are disclosed by simulations with a process based grassland ecosystem model that was originally developed for the simulation of mixed grass/clover swards. Simulations driven with historical weather records from the Swiss Plateau suggest that drought and extreme temperature could represent one of the main reasons for the observed yield variability in productive systems. Simulations with climate change scenarios further reveal important changes in ecosystem dynamics for the current century. The results

  19. Impact of past and future climate variability and extreme events on carbon loss in European arable agriculture

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Balkovic, Juraj; van der Velde, Marijn; Khabarov, Nikolay; Beer, Christian

    2013-04-01

    Predictions of climate models suggest an increase in climate variability and an increased probability in the occurrence of extreme weather events during this century. The expected increase in variability of meteorological variables such as temperature and precipitation will impact the productive functions as well as the ecosystem services agricultural systems provide, including the storage of soil organic carbon. Here we use a methodology and specifically tailored climate datasets that were developed in the EU FP7 CARBO-Extreme project to analyze the effect of increased climate variability on long term soil organic carbon sequestration, erosion and crop production in Europe. We quantified the changing impact of extreme events on carbon dynamics and soil organic carbon loss from agricultural soil cultivated with wheat, barley, maize and rye in Europe for the period from 1900-2100. In separate simulations we specifically address the potential losses of soil carbon associated with erosion. We further characterized the effect of CO2 fertilization on crop growth. Preliminary results indicate a growing contribution of extreme weather generally lowering biomass production and crop yields in Europe, albeit with regional variations. This decrease will lead to a relatively lower input of organic matter into the soil and generally lower soil organic carbon stocks. Yet, in areas characterized by relatively drier conditions the decomposition of organic material and thus heterotrophic transpiration is reduced which can result in a net accumulation of soil organic matter. Finally, we attempted to identify the cropland area susceptible to increased carbon loss due to climate extremes by unraveling the relative contribution of the combined spatial fingerprint of physiographic characteristics and climate extremes over Europe.

  20. The contribution of urbanization to recent extreme heat events and white roof mitigation strategy in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei metropolitan area

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Mingna

    2015-04-01

    The UHI effect can aggravate summertime heat waves and strongly influence human comfort and health, leading to greater mortality in metropolitan areas. Many geo-engineering technological strategies have been proposed to mitigate climate warming, and for the UHI, increasing the albedo of artificial urban surfaces (rooftops or pavements) has been considered a lucrative and effective way to cool cities. The objective of this work is to quantify the contribution of urbanization to recent extreme heat events of the early 21st century in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei metropolitan area, using the mesoscale WRF model coupled with a single urban canopy model and actual urban land cover datasets. This work also investigates a simulation of the regional effects of white roof technology by increasing the albedo of urban areas in the urban canopy model to mitigate the urban heat island, especially in extreme heat waves. The results show that urban land use characteristics that have evolved over the past ~20 years in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei metropolitan area have had a significant impact on the extreme temperatures occurring during extreme heat events. Simulations show that new urban development has caused an intensification and expansion of the areas experiencing extreme heat waves with an average increase in temperature of approximately 0.60°C. This change is most obvious at night with an increase up to 0.95°C, for which the total contribution of anthropogenic heat is 34%. We also simulate the effects of geo-engineering strategies increasing the albedo of urban roofs. White roofs reflect a large fraction of incoming sunlight in the daytime, which reduced the net radiation so that the roof surface keep at a lower temperature than regular solar-absorptive roofs. Urban net radiation decreases by approximately 200 W m-2 at local noon because of high solar reflectance of white roofs, which cools the daytime urban temperature afer sunrise, with the largest decrease of almost -0.80

  1. Influence of Solar and Thermal Radiation on Future Heat Stress Using CMIP5 Archive Driving the Community Land Model Version 4.5

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Buzan, J. R.; Huber, M.

    2015-12-01

    The summer of 2015 has experienced major heat waves on 4 continents, and heat stress left ~4000 people dead in India and Pakistan. Heat stress is caused by a combination of meteorological factors: temperature, humidity, and radiation. The International Organization for Standardization (ISO) uses Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT)—an empirical metric this is calibrated with temperature, humidity, and radiation—for determining labor capacity during heat stress. Unfortunately, most literature studying global heat stress focuses on extreme temperature events, and a limited number of studies use the combination of temperature and humidity. Recent global assessments use WBGT, yet omit the radiation component without recalibrating the metric.Here we explicitly calculate future WBGT within a land surface model, including radiative fluxes as produced by a modeled globe thermometer. We use the Community Land Model version 4.5 (CLM4.5), which is a component model of the Community Earth System Model (CESM), and is maintained by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). To drive our CLM4.5 simulations, we use greenhouse gasses Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (business as usual), and atmospheric output from the CMIP5 Archive. Humans work in a variety of environments, and we place the modeled globe thermometer in a variety of environments. We modify CLM4.5 code to calculate solar and thermal radiation fluxes below and above canopy vegetation, and in bare ground. To calculate wet bulb temperature, we implemented the HumanIndexMod into CLM4.5. The temperature, wet bulb temperature, and radiation fields are calculated at every model time step and are outputted 4x Daily. We use these fields to calculate WBGT and labor capacity for two time slices: 2026-2045 and 2081-2100.

  2. Urban population vulnerability to climate extremes: mitigating urban heat through technology and water-sensitive urban design in Australian cities (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tapper, N. J.

    2013-12-01

    Australia recently endured what was arguably its worst drought in 200 years. The 'Millennium Drought' lasted from 1999 until 2009, producing acute water shortages for several major Australian cities. Towards the end of the drought an extreme heat wave with temperatures approaching 50 C claimed the lives of several hundred people in Melbourne and Adelaide. One outcome of the extreme conditions was that the spectre of climate change and its impacts became very real for most Australians and contributed to the 2007 signing of the Kyoto Protocol by the Australian Government. Issues of extreme heat and water security also led to increased interest in adapting Australian cities to climate change. These concerns ultimately led to the establishment of the Australian Cooperative Research Centre (CRC) for Water Sensitive Cities, a $110 million research initiative to utilise storm water in Australian cities to create cooler and more liveable environments with increased levels of water security. This paper provides an overview of the work being undertaken within the urban climate program of the CRC to identify heat-health vulnerability in our cities and to evaluate the efficacy of irrigated green infrastructure to produce more liveable environments. This papers discusses some of the early research outputs that involve measurement, modelling and remote sensing at a range of scales in Australian cities.

  3. Liquid droplet radiator development status. [waste heat rejection devices for future space vehicles

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    White, K. Alan, III

    1987-01-01

    Development of the Liquid Droplet Radiator (LDR) is described. Significant published results of previous investigators are presented, and work currently in progress is discussed. Several proposed LDR configurations are described, and the rectangular and triangular configurations currently of most interest are examined. Development of the droplet generator, collector, and auxiliary components are discussed. Radiative performance of a droplet sheet is considered, and experimental results are seen to be in very good agreement with analytical predictions. The collision of droplets in the droplet sheet, the charging of droplets by the space plasma, and the effect of atmospheric drag on the droplet sheet are shown to be of little consequence, or can be minimized by proper design. The LDR is seen to be less susceptible than conventional technology to the effects of micrometeoroids or hostile threats. The identification of working fluids which are stable in the orbital environments of interest is also made. Methods for reducing spacecraft contamination from an LDR to an acceptable level are discussed. Preliminary results of microgravity testing of the droplet generator are presented. Possible future NASA and Air Force missions enhanced or enabled by a LDR are also discussed. System studies indicate that the LDR is potentially less massive than heat pipe radiators. Planned microgravity testing aboard the Shuttle or space station is seen to be a logical next step in LDR development.

  4. Uncertainty and extreme events in future climate and hydrologic projections for the Pacific Northwest: providing a basis for vulnerability and core/corridor assessments

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Littell, Jeremy S.; Mauger, Guillaume S.; Salathe, Eric P.; Hamlet, Alan F.; Lee, Se-Yeun; Stumbaugh, Matt R.; Elsner, Marketa; Norheim, Robert; Lutz, Eric R.; Mantua, Nathan J.

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this project was to (1) provide an internally-consistent set of downscaled projections across the Western U.S., (2) include information about projection uncertainty, and (3) assess projected changes of hydrologic extremes. These objectives were designed to address decision support needs for climate adaptation and resource management actions. Specifically, understanding of uncertainty in climate projections – in particular for extreme events – is currently a key scientific and management barrier to adaptation planning and vulnerability assessment. The new dataset fills in the Northwest domain to cover a key gap in the previous dataset, adds additional projections (both from other global climate models and a comparison with dynamical downscaling) and includes an assessment of changes to flow and soil moisture extremes. This new information can be used to assess variations in impacts across the landscape, uncertainty in projections, and how these differ as a function of region, variable, and time period. In this project, existing University of Washington Climate Impacts Group (UW CIG) products were extended to develop a comprehensive data archive that accounts (in a reigorous and physically based way) for climate model uncertainty in future climate and hydrologic scenarios. These products can be used to determine likely impacts on vegetation and aquatic habitat in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) region, including WA, OR, ID, northwest MT to the continental divide, northern CA, NV, UT, and the Columbia Basin portion of western WY New data series and summaries produced for this project include: 1) extreme statistics for surface hydrology (e.g. frequency of soil moisture and summer water deficit) and streamflow (e.g. the 100-year flood, extreme 7-day low flows with a 10-year recurrence interval); 2) snowpack vulnerability as indicated by the ratio of April 1 snow water to cool-season precipitation; and, 3) uncertainty analyses for multiple climate

  5. Responses of the bed bug, Cimex lectularius, to temperature extremes and dehydration: levels of tolerance, rapid cold hardening and expression of heat shock proteins.

    PubMed

    Benoit, J B; Lopez-Martinez, G; Teets, N M; Phillips, S A; Denlinger, D L

    2009-12-01

    This study of the bed bug, Cimex lectularius, examines tolerance of adult females to extremes in temperature and loss of body water. Although the supercooling point (SCP) of the bed bugs was approximately -20 degrees C, all were killed by a direct 1 h exposure to -16 degrees C. Thus, this species cannot tolerate freezing and is killed at temperatures well above its SCP. Neither cold acclimation at 4 degrees C for 2 weeks nor dehydration (15% loss of water content) enhanced cold tolerance. However, bed bugs have the capacity for rapid cold hardening, i.e. a 1-h exposure to 0 degrees C improved their subsequent tolerance of -14 and -16 degrees C. In response to heat stress, fewer than 20% of the bugs survived a 1-h exposure to 46 degrees C, and nearly all were killed at 48 degrees C. Dehydration, heat acclimation at 30 degrees C for 2 weeks and rapid heat hardening at 37 degrees C for 1 h all failed to improve heat tolerance. Expression of the mRNAs encoding two heat shock proteins (Hsps), Hsp70 and Hsp90, was elevated in response to heat stress, cold stress and during dehydration and rehydration. The response of Hsp90 was more pronounced than that of Hsp70 during dehydration and rehydration. Our results define the tolerance limits for bed bugs to these commonly encountered stresses of temperature and low humidity and indicate a role for Hsps in responding to these stresses. PMID:19941608

  6. Responses of the bed bug, Cimex lectularius, to temperature extremes and dehydration: levels of tolerance, rapid cold hardening and expression of heat shock proteins.

    PubMed

    Benoit, J B; Lopez-Martinez, G; Teets, N M; Phillips, S A; Denlinger, D L

    2009-12-01

    This study of the bed bug, Cimex lectularius, examines tolerance of adult females to extremes in temperature and loss of body water. Although the supercooling point (SCP) of the bed bugs was approximately -20 degrees C, all were killed by a direct 1 h exposure to -16 degrees C. Thus, this species cannot tolerate freezing and is killed at temperatures well above its SCP. Neither cold acclimation at 4 degrees C for 2 weeks nor dehydration (15% loss of water content) enhanced cold tolerance. However, bed bugs have the capacity for rapid cold hardening, i.e. a 1-h exposure to 0 degrees C improved their subsequent tolerance of -14 and -16 degrees C. In response to heat stress, fewer than 20% of the bugs survived a 1-h exposure to 46 degrees C, and nearly all were killed at 48 degrees C. Dehydration, heat acclimation at 30 degrees C for 2 weeks and rapid heat hardening at 37 degrees C for 1 h all failed to improve heat tolerance. Expression of the mRNAs encoding two heat shock proteins (Hsps), Hsp70 and Hsp90, was elevated in response to heat stress, cold stress and during dehydration and rehydration. The response of Hsp90 was more pronounced than that of Hsp70 during dehydration and rehydration. Our results define the tolerance limits for bed bugs to these commonly encountered stresses of temperature and low humidity and indicate a role for Hsps in responding to these stresses.

  7. Extreme Halophiles and Carbon Monoxide: Looking Through Windows at Earth's Past and Towards a Future on Mars

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    King, G.

    2015-12-01

    Carbon monoxide, which is ubiquitous on Earth, is the 2nd most abundant molecule in the universe. Members of the domain Bacteria have long been known to oxidize it, and activities of CO oxidizers in soils have been known for several decades to contribute to tropospheric CO regulation. Nonetheless, the diversity of CO oxidizers and their evolutionary history remain largely unknown. A molybdenum-dependent dehydrogenase (Mo-CODH) couples CO oxidation by most terrestrial and marine bacteria to either O2 or nitrate. Molybdenum dependence, the requirement for O2 and previous phylogenetic inferences have all supported a relatively late evolution for "aerobic" CO oxidation, presumably after the Great Oxidation Event (GOE) about 2.3 Gya. Although conundrums remain, recent discoveries suggest that Mo-CODH might have evolved before the GOE, and prior to the Bacteria-Archaea split. New phylogenetic analyses incorporating sequences from extremely halophilic CO-oxidizing Euryarchaeota isolated from salterns in the Atacama Desert, brines on Hawai`i and from the Bonneville Salt Flat suggest that Mo-CODH was present in an ancestor shared by Bacteria and Archaea. This observation is consistent with results of phylogenetic histories of genes involved in Mo-cofactor synthesis, and findings by others that Mo-nitrogenase was likely active > 3 Gya. Thus, analyses of Mo-dependent CO oxidizers provide a window on the past by raising questions about the availability of Mo and non-O2 electron acceptors. Extremely halophilic CO oxidizers also provide insights relevant for understanding the potential for extraterrestrial life. CO likely occurred at high concentrations in Mars' early atmosphere, and it occurs presently at about 800 ppm. At such high concentrations, CO represents one of the most abundant energy sources available for near-surface regolith. However, use of CO by an extant or transplanted Mars microbiota would require tolerance of low water potentials and high salt concentrations

  8. A comparison of whole body vibration and moist heat on lower extremity skin temperature and skin blood flow in healthy older individuals

    PubMed Central

    Lohman, Everett B.; Sackiriyas, Kanikkai Steni Balan; Bains, Gurinder S.; Calandra, Giovanni; Lobo, Crystal; Nakhro, Daniel; Malthankar, Gauri; Paul, Sherwine

    2012-01-01

    Summary Background Tissue healing is an intricate process that is regulated by circulation. Heat modalities have been shown to improve skin circulation. Recent research supports that passive vibration increases circulation without risk of burns. Study purpose is to compare and determine effects of short duration vibration, moist heat, and a combination of the two on skin blood flow (SBF) and skin temperature (ST) in elderly, non-diabetic individuals following short-term exposure. Material/Methods Ten subjects, 3 female and 7 male (55–73 years of age), received two interventions over three days: 1 – Active vibration, 2 – passive vibration, 3 – moist heat, 4 – moist heat combined with passive vibration (MHPV), 5 – a commercial massaging heating pad, and 6 – no intervention. SBF and ST were measured using a MOOR Laser Doppler before and after the intervention and the third measurement were taken 10 minutes following. Results Mean SBF following a ten-minute intervention were significantly different in the combination of moist heat and passive vibration from the control, active vibration, and the commercial massaging heating pad. Compared to baseline measurements, this resulted in mean SBF elevation to 450% (at conclusion of 10 minutes of intervention) and 379% (10 minutes post). MHPV (p=0.02) showed significant changes in ST from the commercial massaging heating pad, passive vibration, and active vibration interventions. Conclusions SBF in the lower legs showed greatest increase with MHPV. Interventions should be selected that are low risk while increasing lower extremity skin blood flow. PMID:22739731

  9. Development of National Future Extreme Heat Scenario to Enable the Assessment of Climate Impacts on Public Health

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Quattrochi, Dale A.; Cresson, William L.; Al-Hamdan, Mohammad Z.; Estes, Maurice G.

    2013-01-01

    The project's emphasis is on providing assessments of the magnitude, frequency and geographic distribution of EHEs to facilitate public health studies. We focus on the daily to weekly time scales on which EHEs occur, not on decadal-scale climate changes. There is, however, a very strong connection between air temperature patterns at the two time scales and long-term climatic changes will certainly alter the frequency of EHEs.

  10. Simulated Extreme Prepitation Indices over Northeast Brasil in Current Climate and Future Scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wender Santiago Marinho, Marcos; Araújo Costa, Alexandre; Cassain Sales, Domingo; Oliveira Guimarães, Sullyandro; Mariano da Silva, Emerson; das Chagas Vasconcelos Júnior, Francisco

    2013-04-01

    In this study, we analyzed extreme precipitation indices, for present and future modeled climates over Northeast of Brazil (NEB), from CORDEX simulations over the domain of Tropical Americas. The period for the model validation was from 1989-2007, using data from the European Center (ECWMF) Reanalysis, ERA-INTERIM, as input to drive the regional model (RAMS 6.0). Reanalysis data were assimilated via both lateral boundaries and the entire domain (a much weaker "central nudging"). Six indices of extreme precipitation were calculated over NEB: the average number of days above 10, 20 and 30 mm in one year (R10, R20, R30), the number of consecutive dry days (CDD), the number of consecutive wet days (CWD) and the maximum rainfall in five consecutive days (RX5). Those indices were compared against two independent databases: MERRA (Modern Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications) and TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission). After validation, climate simulations were performed for the present climate (1985-2005) and short-term (2015-2035), mid-term (2045-2065) and long-term (2079 to 2099) future climates for two scenarios: RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, nesting RAMS into HadGEM2-ES global model (a participant of CMIP5). Along with the indices, we also calculated Probability Distribution Functions (PDFs) to study the behavior of daily precipitation in the present and by the end of the 21st century (2079 to 2099) to assess possible changes under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5. The regional model is capable of representing relatively well the extreme precipitation indices for current climate, but there is some difficulties in performing a proper validation since the observed databases disagree significantly. Future projections show significant changes in most extreme indices. Rnn generally tend to increase, especially under RCP8.5. More significant changes are projected for the long-term period, under RCP8.5, which shows a pronounced R30 enhancement over northern states. CDD tends

  11. Application of probabilistic event attribution in the summer heat extremes in the western US to emissions traced to major industrial carbon producers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mera, R. J.; Allen, M. R.; Mote, P.; Ekwurzel, B.; Frumhoff, P. C.; Rupp, D. E.

    2015-12-01

    Heat waves in the western US have become progressively more severe due to increasing relative humidity and nighttime temperatures, increasing the health risks of vulnerable portions of the population, including Latino farmworkers in California's Central Valley and other socioeconomically disadvantaged communities. Recent research has shown greenhouse gas emissions doubled the risk of the hottest summer days during the 2000's in the Central Valley, increasing public health risks and costs, and raising the question of which parties are responsible for paying these costs. It has been argued that these costs should not be taken up solely by the general public through taxation, but that additional parties can be considered, including multinational corporations who have extracted and marketed a large proportion of carbon-based fuels. Here, we apply probabilistic event attribution (PEA) to assess the contribution of emissions traced to the world's 90 largest major industrial carbon producers to the severity and frequency of these extreme heat events. Our research uses very large ensembles of regional climate model simulations to calculate fractional attribution of policy-relevant extreme heat variables. We compare a full forcings world with observed greenhouse gases, sea surface temperatures and sea ice extent to a counter-factual world devoid of carbon pollution from major industrial carbon producers. The results show a discernable fraction of record-setting summer temperatures in the western US during the 2000's can be attributed to emissions sourced from major carbon producers.

  12. Structural and Gel Textural Properties of Soy Protein Isolate When Subjected to Extreme Acid pH-Shifting and Mild Heating Processes.

    PubMed

    Liu, Qian; Geng, Rui; Zhao, Juyang; Chen, Qian; Kong, Baohua

    2015-05-20

    Changes in the structural and gel textural properties were investigated in soy protein isolate (SPI) that was subjected to extreme acid pH-shifting and mild heating processes. The SPI was incubated up to 5 h in pH 1.5 solutions at room temperature or in a heated water bath (50 or 60 °C) to lead to protein structural unfolding, followed by refolding at pH 7.0 for 1 h. The combination of pH-shifting and heating treatments resulted in drastic increases in the SPI gel penetration force (p < 0.05). These treatments also significantly enforced the conversion of sulphydryl groups into disulfides, increased the particle size and hydrophobicity values, reduced the protein solubility (p < 0.05), and strengthened the disulfide-mediated aggregation of SPI. The intrinsic fluorescence spectroscopy results indicated structural unravelling when protein was subjected to acidic pH-shifting in combination with heating processes. The slight loss of secondary structure was observed by circular dichroism. These results suggested that pH-shifting combined with heating treatments provide great potential for the production of functionality-improved SPI, with the improved gelling property highly related to changes in the protein structure and hydrophobic aggregation.

  13. Scientific commentary: Strategic analysis of environmental policy risks--heat maps, risk futures and the character of environmental harm.

    PubMed

    Prpich, G; Dagonneau, J; Rocks, S A; Lickorish, F; Pollard, S J T

    2013-10-01

    We summarise our recent efforts on the policy-level risk appraisal of environmental risks. These have necessitated working closely with policy teams and a requirement to maintain crisp and accessible messages for policy audiences. Our comparative analysis uses heat maps, supplemented with risk narratives, and employs the multidimensional character of risks to inform debates on the management of current residual risk and future threats. The policy research and ensuing analysis raises core issues about how comparative risk analyses are used by policy audiences, their validation and future developments that are discussed in the commentary below.

  14. Using a Clean Energy Version of Moore's Law to Plan for the Extreme Efficiency of the Future

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van Buskirk, Robert

    2014-03-01

    In 1965, Gordon Moore predicted a decade of exponential growth in the transistor density growth (and hence computing power) for integrated circuits that--with some modification--has held to the present day. In this talk, we discuss to what extent clean energy technologies are subject to similar laws of long term exponential improvement and how these improvement rates may be accelerating due to recent developments. We review a range of long term energy efficiency and technology productivity improvement trends ranging from lighting, televisions, refrigerators, HVAC, batteries, motors, power electronics and solar PV. After reviewing historical and recent trends, we discuss several factors that may lead to an acceleration of improvement rates in the clean energy technology sector. Finally, we discuss the Baumol effect which predicts how differential trends in technology productivity may affect trends in relative prices in the economy. We conclude with a discussion of some of the implications that Baumol's theories may have for the development of extreme levels of energy efficiency in the coming decades.

  15. Tuning extreme ultraviolet emission for optimum coupling with multilayer mirrors for future lithography through control of ionic charge states

    SciTech Connect

    Ohashi, Hayato Higashiguchi, Takeshi Suzuki, Yuhei; Kawasaki, Masato; Li, Bowen; Dunne, Padraig; O'Sullivan, Gerry; Kanehara, Tatsuhiko; Aida, Yuya; Nakamura, Nobuyuki; Torii, Shuichi; Makimura, Tetsuya; Jiang, Weihua

    2014-01-21

    We report on the identification of the optimum plasma conditions for a laser-produced plasma source for efficient coupling with multilayer mirrors at 6.x nm for beyond extreme ultraviolet lithography. A small shift to lower energies of the peak emission for Nd:YAG laser-produced gadolinium plasmas was observed with increasing laser power density. Charge-defined emission spectra were observed in electron beam ion trap (EBIT) studies and the charge states responsible identified by use of the flexible atomic code (FAC). The EBIT spectra displayed a larger systematic shift of the peak wavelength of intense emission at 6.x nm to longer wavelengths with increasing ionic charge. This combination of spectra enabled the key ion stage to be confirmed as Gd{sup 18+}, over a range of laser power densities, with contributions from Gd{sup 17+} and Gd{sup 19+} responsible for the slight shift to longer wavelengths in the laser-plasma spectra. The FAC calculation also identified the origin of observed out-of-band emission and the charge states responsible.

  16. Evidence of prehistoric flooding and the potential for future extreme flooding at Coyote Wash, Yucca Mountain, Nye County, Nevada

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Glancy, Patrick A.

    1994-01-01

    Coyote Wash, east of Yucca Mountain and southwest of the Nevada Test Site, is the potential location for an exploratory shaft to investigate the feasibility of underground storage of radioactive waste. The potential for flooding and related fluvial-debris hazards was investigated with respect to the potential shaft location. Trenches excavated through fluvial sediment deposits revealed interstratified rock detritus emplaced by floods and debris flows. Most of the deposits are believed to be of late Quaternary age. Debros-flow deposits contain boulders as large as 3 feet in diameter. This evidence of intense prehistoric flooding and debris movement indicates the possibility of similar continuing activity. Empirical estimates of extreme flood flows in North Fork Coyote Wash, a 0.094- square-mile drainage to the shaft site, range from 900 to 2,600 cubic feet per second. Current (1992) knowledge indicates that flows of water and debris as much as 2,500 cubic feet per second can occur in the vicinity of the shaft from this drainage. Similar size flows from adjacent South Fork Coyote Wash, could arrive simultaneously in the vicinity of the shaft. Thus, cumulative water and debris from both tributaries could subject the alluvial flood plain near the shaft site to flows of as much as 5,000 cubic feet per second.

  17. Temperature acclimation rate of aerobic scope and feeding metabolism in fishes: implications in a thermally extreme future.

    PubMed

    Sandblom, Erik; Gräns, Albin; Axelsson, Michael; Seth, Henrik

    2014-11-01

    Temperature acclimation may offset the increased energy expenditure (standard metabolic rate, SMR) and reduced scope for activity (aerobic scope, AS) predicted to occur with local and global warming in fishes and other ectotherms. Yet, the time course and mechanisms of this process is little understood. Acclimation dynamics of SMR, maximum metabolic rate, AS and the specific dynamic action of feeding (SDA) were determined in shorthorn sculpin (Myoxocephalus scorpius) after transfer from 10°C to 16°C. SMR increased in the first week by 82% reducing AS to 55% of initial values, while peak postprandial metabolism was initially greater. This meant that the estimated AS during peak SDA approached zero, constraining digestion and leaving little room for additional aerobic processes. After eight weeks at 16°C, SMR was restored, while AS and the estimated AS during peak SDA recovered partly. Collectively, this demonstrated a considerable capacity for metabolic thermal compensation, which should be better incorporated into future models on organismal responses to climate change. A mathematical model based on the empirical data suggested that phenotypes with fast acclimation rates may be favoured by natural selection as the accumulated energetic cost of a slow acclimation rate increases in a warmer future with exacerbated thermal variations. PMID:25232133

  18. Temperature acclimation rate of aerobic scope and feeding metabolism in fishes: implications in a thermally extreme future.

    PubMed

    Sandblom, Erik; Gräns, Albin; Axelsson, Michael; Seth, Henrik

    2014-11-01

    Temperature acclimation may offset the increased energy expenditure (standard metabolic rate, SMR) and reduced scope for activity (aerobic scope, AS) predicted to occur with local and global warming in fishes and other ectotherms. Yet, the time course and mechanisms of this process is little understood. Acclimation dynamics of SMR, maximum metabolic rate, AS and the specific dynamic action of feeding (SDA) were determined in shorthorn sculpin (Myoxocephalus scorpius) after transfer from 10°C to 16°C. SMR increased in the first week by 82% reducing AS to 55% of initial values, while peak postprandial metabolism was initially greater. This meant that the estimated AS during peak SDA approached zero, constraining digestion and leaving little room for additional aerobic processes. After eight weeks at 16°C, SMR was restored, while AS and the estimated AS during peak SDA recovered partly. Collectively, this demonstrated a considerable capacity for metabolic thermal compensation, which should be better incorporated into future models on organismal responses to climate change. A mathematical model based on the empirical data suggested that phenotypes with fast acclimation rates may be favoured by natural selection as the accumulated energetic cost of a slow acclimation rate increases in a warmer future with exacerbated thermal variations.

  19. Large scale and sub-regional connections in the lead up to summer heat wave and extreme rainfall events in eastern Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boschat, Ghyslaine; Pezza, Alexandre; Simmonds, Ian; Perkins, Sarah; Cowan, Tim; Purich, Ariaan

    2015-04-01

    Australia has been exposed to a vast array of extreme weather regimes over the past few years, and the frequency and intensity of these events are expected to increase as a result of anthropogenic climate change. However, the predictability of extreme droughts, heat waves (HWs), bushfires and floods, is still hampered by our inability to fully understand how these weather systems interact with each other and with the climate system. This study brings new insight into the regional and large scale dynamics of some extreme events in Australia, by describing and comparing the climate signature of summer HWs and extreme rainfall events which have occurred in the states of Victoria and Queensland respectively, during 1979-2013. Our analyses highlight the importance of mid-latitude dynamics operating during HWs, in contrast with more tropical interactions at play during extreme rainfall events. A `common' blocking high pressure system is observed over the Tasman Sea during the two types of extreme events, and may explain why some southeastern HWs (only about 25 %) occur in close succession with floods in Queensland. However, our results suggest that there is no dynamical link between these two types of events, since the HW-related anticyclone evolves as part of a baroclinic wave train, whereas in the case of rainfall events, this structure emerges as an equivalent barotropic response to tropical convection. Sub-regional surface temperatures and air-sea fluxes also suggest that distinct processes may be operating in the lead up to these two events. Indeed, HWs tend to occur when the wave train propagates from the south Indian to the Pacific Ocean, inducing a quasi-stationary blocking high system over the Tasman Sea. This anticyclonic anomaly can then advect hot dry air towards the southern Victorian coast, where it produces HW conditions. On the other hand, extreme rainfall events mostly occur when the background conditions correspond to a La Niña state. The convection

  20. Future Projections from the Effects of Heat Stress on Livestock: for the US and New England Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McCabe, E.; Buzan, J. R.; Huber, M.; Krishnan, S.

    2015-12-01

    Future climate change will result in variations in heat stress experienced by livestock, which will consequently impact health, well-being, and yield. In this study, we estimate future yield changes for livestock due to heat stress in New England. We use the Community Land Model version 4.5 (CLM4.5), a component of the Community Earth System Model (CESM) that is developed by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). The simulation uses RCP8.5 boundary conditions, and is driven by CCSM4 atmospheric forcing from the CMIP5 archive, that conducts simulations of the past and next century. Heat stress metrics are calculated using the HumanIndexMod in CLM4.5 for the early and late 21st century. For example, the humidity index for comfort and physiology, wet bulb temperature and swamp cooler efficiency. Results indicate that in the New England Region, temperatures will increase by 4 °C and in New Hampshire specifically by 3 °C. Temperature humidity index for comfort and physiology, swamp cooler efficiency and wet bulb are all projected to rise by the end of the century. While it is obvious that these elevations in temperature will have a negative effect on animals inhibiting their performance and output, our analysis also emphasizes the role of changes in humidity in heat stress. We show that heat stress caused by temperature and humidity increases, will decrease overall production yield for dairy and beef cattle, sows, finishing hogs and poultry, as a result of heat stress and other major climatic factors. We estimate and discuss resulting economic losses for the livestock industries and the impact in the United States and New England Region.

  1. Evidence of prehistoric flooding and the potential for future extreme flooding at Coyote Wash, Yucca Mountain, Nye County, Nevada

    SciTech Connect

    Glancy, P.A.

    1994-09-01

    Coyote Wash, an approximately 0.3-square-mile drainage on the eastern flank of Yucca Mountain, is the potential location for an exploratory shaft to evaluate the suitability of Yucca Mountain for construction of an underground repository for the storage of high-level radioactive wastes. An ongoing investigation is addressing the potential for hazards to the site and surrounding areas from flooding and related fluvial-debris movement. Unconsolidated sediments in and adjacent to the channel of North Fork Coyote Wash were examined for evidence of past floods. Trenches excavated across and along the valley bottom exposed multiple flood deposits, including debris-flow deposits containing boulders as large as 2 to 3 feet in diameter. Most of the alluvial deposition probably occurred during the late Quaternary. Deposits at the base of the deepest trench overlie bedrock and underlie stream terraces adjacent to the channel; these sediments are moderately indurated and probably were deposited during the late Pleistocene. Overlying nonindurated deposits clearly are younger and may be of Holocene age. This evidence of intense flooding during the past indicates that severe flooding and debris movement are possible in the future. Empirical estimates of large floods of the past range from 900 to 2,600 cubic feet per second from the 0.094-square-mile drainage area of North Fork Coyote Wash drainage at two proposed shaft sites. Current knowledge indicates that mixtures of water and debris are likely to flow from North Fork Coyote Wash at rates up to 2,500 cubic feet per second. South Fork Coyote Wash, which has similar basin area and hydraulic characteristics, probably will have concurrent floods of similar magnitudes. The peak flow of the two tributaries probably would combine near the potential sites for the exploratory shaft to produce future flow of water and accompanying debris potentially as large as 5,000 cubic feet per second.

  2. Exploring Mbar shock conditions and isochorically heated aluminum at the Matter in Extreme Conditions end station of the Linac Coherent Light Source

    DOE PAGES

    Doppner, T.; LePape, S.; Ma, T.; Pak, A.; Turnbull, D.; Fletcher, L. B.; Lee, H. J.; Galtier, E.; Nagler, B.; Gauthier, M.; et al

    2014-08-11

    Recent experiments performed at the Matter in Extreme Conditions end station of the Linac Coherent Light Source (LCLS) have demonstrated the first spectrally resolved measurements of plasmons from isochorically heated aluminum. The experiments have been performed using a seeded 8-keV x-ray laser beam as a pump and probe to both volumetrically heat and scatterx-rays from aluminum. Collective x-ray Thomson scattering spectra show a well-resolved plasmon feature that is down-shifted in energy by 19 eV. In addition, Mbar shock pressures from laser-compressed aluminum foils using velocity interferometer system for any reflector have been measured. Furthermore, the combination of experiments fully demonstratesmore » the possibility to perform warm dense matter studies at the LCLS with unprecedented accuracy and precision.« less

  3. Exploring Mbar shock conditions and isochorically heated aluminum at the Matter in Extreme Conditions end station of the Linac Coherent Light Source (invited).

    PubMed

    Fletcher, L B; Lee, H J; Barbrel, B; Gauthier, M; Galtier, E; Nagler, B; Döppner, T; LePape, S; Ma, T; Pak, A; Turnbull, D; White, T; Gregori, G; Wei, M; Falcone, R W; Heimann, P; Zastrau, U; Hastings, J B; Glenzer, S H

    2014-11-01

    Recent experiments performed at the Matter in Extreme Conditions end station of the Linac Coherent Light Source (LCLS) have demonstrated the first spectrally resolved measurements of plasmons from isochorically heated aluminum. The experiments have been performed using a seeded 8-keV x-ray laser beam as a pump and probe to both volumetrically heat and scatter x-rays from aluminum. Collective x-ray Thomson scattering spectra show a well-resolved plasmon feature that is down-shifted in energy by 19 eV. In addition, Mbar shock pressures from laser-compressed aluminum foils using velocity interferometer system for any reflector have been measured. The combination of experiments fully demonstrates the possibility to perform warm dense matter studies at the LCLS with unprecedented accuracy and precision.

  4. Exploring Mbar shock conditions and isochorically heated aluminum at the Matter in Extreme Conditions end station of the Linac Coherent Light Source

    SciTech Connect

    Doppner, T.; LePape, S.; Ma, T.; Pak, A.; Turnbull, D.; Fletcher, L. B.; Lee, H. J.; Galtier, E.; Nagler, B.; Gauthier, M.; Heimann, P.; Hastings, J. B.; Zastrau, U.; Glenzer, S. H.; White, T.; Gregori, G.; Wei, M.; Barbrel, B.; Falcone, R. W.

    2014-08-11

    Recent experiments performed at the Matter in Extreme Conditions end station of the Linac Coherent Light Source (LCLS) have demonstrated the first spectrally resolved measurements of plasmons from isochorically heated aluminum. The experiments have been performed using a seeded 8-keV x-ray laser beam as a pump and probe to both volumetrically heat and scatterx-rays from aluminum. Collective x-ray Thomson scattering spectra show a well-resolved plasmon feature that is down-shifted in energy by 19 eV. In addition, Mbar shock pressures from laser-compressed aluminum foils using velocity interferometer system for any reflector have been measured. Furthermore, the combination of experiments fully demonstrates the possibility to perform warm dense matter studies at the LCLS with unprecedented accuracy and precision.

  5. Exploring Mbar shock conditions and isochorically heated aluminum at the Matter in Extreme Conditions end station of the Linac Coherent Light Source (invited)

    SciTech Connect

    Fletcher, L. B.; Lee, H. J.; Gauthier, M.; Galtier, E.; Nagler, B.; Heimann, P.; Hastings, J. B.; Glenzer, S. H.; Barbrel, B.; Falcone, R. W.; Döppner, T.; LePape, S.; Ma, T.; Pak, A.; Turnbull, D.; White, T.; Gregori, G.; Wei, M.; Zastrau, U.

    2014-11-15

    Recent experiments performed at the Matter in Extreme Conditions end station of the Linac Coherent Light Source (LCLS) have demonstrated the first spectrally resolved measurements of plasmons from isochorically heated aluminum. The experiments have been performed using a seeded 8-keV x-ray laser beam as a pump and probe to both volumetrically heat and scatter x-rays from aluminum. Collective x-ray Thomson scattering spectra show a well-resolved plasmon feature that is down-shifted in energy by 19 eV. In addition, Mbar shock pressures from laser-compressed aluminum foils using velocity interferometer system for any reflector have been measured. The combination of experiments fully demonstrates the possibility to perform warm dense matter studies at the LCLS with unprecedented accuracy and precision.

  6. On the Role of SST Forcing in the 2011 and 2012 Extreme U.S. Heat and Drought: A Study in Contrasts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wang, Hailan; Schubert, Siegfried; Koster, Randal; Ham, Yoo-Geun; Suarez, Max

    2013-01-01

    This study compares the extreme heat and drought that developed over the United States in 2011 and 2012 with a focus on the role of SST forcing. Experiments with the NASA GEOS-5 atmospheric general circulation model show that the winter/spring response over the U.S. to the Pacific SST is remarkably similar for the two years despite substantial differences in the tropical Pacific SST. As such, the pronounced winter and early spring temperature differences between the two years (warmth confined to the south in 2011 and covering much of the continent in 2012) primarily reflect differences in the contributions from the Atlantic and Indian Oceans, with both acting to cool the east and upper mid-west during 2011, while during 2012 the Indian Ocean reinforced the Pacific-driven continental-wide warming and the Atlantic played a less important role. During late spring and summer of 2011 the tropical Pacific SST force a continued warming and drying over the southern U.S., though considerably weaker than observed. Nevertheless, the observed anomalies fall within the models intra-ensemble spread. In contrast, the rapid development of intense heat and drying over the central U.S. during June and July of 2012 falls outside the models intra-ensemble spread. The response to the SST (a northward expansion of a modest summer warming linked to the Atlantic) gives little indication that 2012 would produce record-breaking precipitation deficits and heat in the central Great Plains. A diagnosis of the 2012 observed circulation anomalies shows that the most extreme heat and drought was tied to the development of a stationary Rossby wave and an associated anomalous upper tropospheric high maintained by weather transients.

  7. Present and future status of noninvasive selective deep heating using RF in hyperthermia.

    PubMed

    Kato, H; Ishida, T

    1993-07-01

    To achieve hyperthermia using electromagnetic energy, RF of under 100 MHz is basically suitable for the external heating of the deep portions of the body. For applicators using such RF, the following types are considered: capacitive, inductive, radiative and hybrid. With radiative applicators, the intensity of the EM waves radiated from the applicator decreases with propagation into the material to be heated, but the phased annular array of radiative applicators potentially increases the intensity of the EM energy in the deep portion owing to the interference of the waves. Using this method, the focusing of EM energy depends on the dielectric properties of the material to be heated. With respect to RF heating at a lower frequency than the RF used for the annular phased array, some devices have been said to concentrate EM energy in the deep portions, where the characteristics of 'wave' are not utilised. To this end, some methods using capacitive electrodes, an inductive coil, or a combination of both, are being designed. The results of using such methods have shown that it is possible to supply sufficient EM energy to the muscle layers deep in the material to be heated, without heating the fat layers excessively.

  8. Extreme ultraviolet light sources for use in semiconductor lithography—state of the art and future development

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stamm, Uwe

    2004-12-01

    This paper gives an overview of the development status and plans of extreme ultraviolet (EUV) light sources at XTREME technologies, a joint venture of Lambda Physik AG, Göttingen and JENOPTIK LOS GmbH, Jena, Germany. Results for gas discharge-produced plasma (GDPP) and laser-produced plasma (LPP), the two major technologies in EUV sources, are presented. The GDPP EUV sources use the Z-pinch principle with efficient sliding-discharge pre-ionization. First prototypes of commercial gas discharge sources with an EUV power of 35 W in 2π sr have already been integrated into EUV microsteppers. These sources are equipped with a debris-filter which supports an optics lifetime exceeding 100 million pulses at 1 kHz repetition rate. The same lifetime was achieved for the components of the discharge system itself. The progress in the development of high-power discharge sources based on xenon resulted in an EUV power of 200 W into a 2π sr solid angle, in continuous operation, at 4.5 kHz repetition rate, by implementation of porous-metal cooling technology. The available intermediate focus (IF) power is 22 W taking into account experimentally verified losses in a 1.8 sr source collector module. The usable IF power depends on the etendue of the optical system of the EUV scanner. For the current size of the EUV emitting plasma the etendue acceptance factor may be below 0.5. The currently usable IF power with 1.8 sr collector mirror may therefore be about 10 W. Z-pinch discharge sources with Sn as the emitter have been developed as a more efficient alternative to xenon fuelled sources. Tin sources showed a conversion efficiency (CE) that was double that of xenon. EUV power of 400 W in 2π sr has been generated at only 4.5 kHz repetition rate. The available IF power is 44 W. Estimates evaluating the tin source performance reveal the potential for achieving high-volume manufacturing (HVM) power specification by using existing technology. Because of their small plasma size and the

  9. Combined Heat and Power: Effective Energy Solutions for a Sustainable Future

    SciTech Connect

    Shipley, Ms. Anna; Hampson, Anne; Hedman, Mr. Bruce; Garland, Patricia W; Bautista, Paul

    2008-12-01

    Combined Heat and Power (CHP) solutions represent a proven and effective near-term energy option to help the United States enhance energy efficiency, ensure environmental quality, promote economic growth, and foster a robust energy infrastructure. Using CHP today, the United States already avoids more than 1.9 Quadrillion British thermal units (Quads) of fuel consumption and 248 million metric tons of carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) emissions annually compared to traditional separate production of electricity and thermal energy. This CO{sub 2} reduction is the equivalent of removing more than 45 million cars from the road. In addition, CHP is one of the few options in the portfolio of energy alternatives that combines environmental effectiveness with economic viability and improved competitiveness. This report describes in detail the four key areas where CHP has proven its effectiveness and holds promise for the future as an: (1) Environmental Solution: Significantly reducing CO{sub 2} emissions through greater energy efficiency; (2) Competitive Business Solution: Increasing efficiency, reducing business costs, and creating green-collar jobs; (3) Local Energy Solution: Deployable throughout the US; and (4) Infrastructure Modernization Solution: Relieving grid congestion and improving energy security. CHP should be one of the first technologies deployed for near-term carbon reductions. The cost-effectiveness and near-term viability of widespread CHP deployment place the technology at the forefront of practical alternative energy solutions such as wind, solar, clean coal, biofuels, and nuclear power. Clear synergies exist between CHP and most other technologies that dominate the energy and environmental policy dialogue in the country today. As the Nation transforms how it produces, transports, and uses the many forms of energy, it must seize the clear opportunity afforded by CHP in terms of climate change, economic competitiveness, energy security, and infrastructure

  10. Enabling a Better Aft Heat Shield Solution for Future Mars Science Laboratory Class Vehicles

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    McGuire, Mary K.; Covington, Melmoth A.; Goldstein, Howard E.; Arnold, James O.; Beck, Robin

    2013-01-01

    System studies are described that compare masses and estimated manufacturing costs of options for the as-flown Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) aft body Thermal Light Weight Ablator (SLA) 561-V and its thickness was not optimized using the standard TPS Sizer Tool widely used for heat shield design. Use of the TPS sizing tool suggests that optimization of the SLA thickness could reduce the aft heat shield mass by 40 percent. Analysis of the predicted aft-shell aerothermodynamics suggests that the bulk of MSL class entry vehicle heat shields could incorporate Advanced Flexible Reusable Surface Insulation (AFRSI). AFRSI has a wellestablished record of relatively inexpensive manufacturing and flight certification based on its use on the lee side of the Space Shuttle. Runs with the TPS Sizer show that the AFRSI solution would be 60 percent lighter than the as-flown SLA. The issue of Reaction Control System (RCS) heating on the aft shell could be addressed by locally impregnating the AFRSI with silicone to enhance its robustness to short bursts ofheating. Stagnation point arcjet testing has shown that silicone impregnated AFRSI performs well at heat rates of 115 W/cm2 and 0.1 atmospheres for a duration of 40 seconds, far beyond conditions that are expected for MSL class vehicles. The paper concludes with a discussion of manufacturing processes for AFRSI, impregnation approaches and relative cost comparisons to the SLA solution.

  11. Regional analysis of drought and heat impacts on forests: current and future science directions.

    PubMed

    Law, Beverly E

    2014-12-01

    Accurate assessments of forest response to current and future climate and human actions are needed at regional scales. Predicting future impacts on forests will require improved analysis of species-level adaptation, resilience, and vulnerability to mortality. Land system models can be enhanced by creating trait-based groupings of species that better represent climate sensitivity, such as risk of hydraulic failure from drought. This emphasizes the need for more coordinated in situ and remote sensing observations to track changes in ecosystem function, and to improve model inputs, spatio-temporal diagnosis, and predictions of future conditions, including implications of actions to mitigate climate change.

  12. Overview of NASA Glenn Research Center Programs in Aero-Heat Transfer and Future Needs

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gaugler, Raymond E.

    2002-01-01

    This presentation concentrates on an overview of the NASA Glenn Research Center and the projects that are supporting Turbine Aero-Heat Transfer Research. The principal areas include the Ultra Efficient Engine Technology (UEET) Project, the Advanced Space Transportation Program (ASTP) Revolutionary Turbine Accelerator (RTA) Turbine Based Combined Cycle (TBCC) project, and the Propulsion & Power Base R&T - Smart Efficient Components (SEC), and Revolutionary Aeropropulsion Concepts (RAC) Projects. In addition, highlights are presented of the turbine aero-heat transfer work currently underway at NASA Glenn, focusing on the use of the Glenn-HT Navier- Stokes code as the vehicle for research in turbulence & transition modeling, grid topology generation, unsteady effects, and conjugate heat transfer.

  13. National commercial solar heating and cooling demonstration: purposes, program activities, and implications for future programs

    SciTech Connect

    Koontz, R.; Genest, M.; Bryant, B.

    1980-05-01

    The Solar Heating and Cooling Demonstration Act of 1974 created a set of activities to demonstrate the potential use of solar heating within a three-year period and of combined solar heating and cooling within a five-year period. This study assesses the Commercial Demonstration Program portion of the activity in terms of its stated goals and objectives. The primary data base was DOE contractor reports on commercial demonstration projects. It was concluded that the program did not provide data to support a positive decision for the immediate construction or purchase of commercial solar systems. However, the program may have contributed to other goals in the subsequent legislation; i.e., research and development information, stimulation of the solar industry, and more informed policy decisions.

  14. Understanding future projected changes and historical trends in extreme climate and streamflow events in warm boreal permafrost basins of Interior Alaska

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bennett, K. E.; Cherry, J. E.; Walsh, J. E.; Hinzman, L. D.

    2014-12-01

    Changes in future and historical extreme events may have disastrous consequences in vulnerable systems such as the warm- permafrost-dominated Interior region of Alaska. This paper presents a study examining extreme hydro-climate events (temperature, precipitation and streamflow) in Interior Alaskan watersheds, focused on results from Fairbanks, Alaska, located within the Chena River basin. Results are presented for an ensemble of global climate models (GCMs) and emission scenarios, run through to 2100. GCMs, selected for performance over the Alaskan domain, project the largest increases in minimum daily minimum temperature (TNn), compared to maximum daily maximum temperature (TXx), in the winter and spring at the Fairbanks Airport station. The increases in TNn and TXx are much larger (two to four times) than the across GCM standard deviations, indicating robustness in the projected changes. Statistically significant increases in five-day maximum precipitation are also projected to occur by the 2080s, with the largest increases expected for the summer and fall seasons. Streamflow projections provided by running the Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting model, coupled with the SNOW17 snow model, are analyzed using a generalized extreme value (GEV) theorem and nonparametric trend approach. The Chena River basin exhibits linear nonstationary increases in maximum and minimum annual streamflow projected by the 2080s under both the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, minimized by the Akaike Information Criteria statistic, corrected for small sample sizes. Changes are indicative of increased flow volumes in the summer and fall, following precipitation changes projected to occur during these seasons. These changes are distinct from trends and GEV analysis performed on the historical streamflow series, which indicate declining flows associated with the loss of snowpack observed as a statistically significant reduction in relative flow volume (-49%, p-value 0.01) during the May

  15. Lookup Tables for Predicting CHF and Film-Boiling Heat Transfer: Past, Present, and Future

    SciTech Connect

    Groeneveld, D.C.; Leung, L.K. H.; Guo, Y.; Vasic, A.; El Nakla, M.; Peng, S.W.; Yang, J.; Cheng, S.C.

    2005-10-15

    Lookup tables (LUTs) have been used widely for the prediction of critical heat flux (CHF) and film-boiling heat transfer for water-cooled tubes. LUTs are basically normalized data banks. They eliminate the need to choose between the many different CHF and film-boiling heat transfer prediction methods available.The LUTs have many advantages; e.g., (a) they are simple to use, (b) there is no iteration required, (c) they have a wide range of applications, (d) they may be applied to nonaqueous fluids using fluid-to-fluid modeling relationships, and (e) they are based on a very large database. Concerns associated with the use of LUTs include (a) there are fluctuations in the value of the CHF or film-boiling heat transfer coefficient (HTC) with pressure, mass flux, and quality, (b) there are large variations in the CHF or the film-boiling HTC between the adjacent table entries, and (c) there is a lack or scarcity of data at certain flow conditions.Work on the LUTs is continuing. This will resolve the aforementioned concerns and improve the LUT prediction capability. This work concentrates on better smoothing of the LUT entries, increasing the database, and improving models at conditions where data are sparse or absent.

  16. Potential Remedies for the High Synchrotron-Radiation-Induced Heat Load for Future Highest-Energy-Proton Circular Colliders

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cimino, R.; Baglin, V.; Schäfers, F.

    2015-12-01

    We propose a new method for handling the high synchrotron radiation (SR) induced heat load of future circular hadron colliders (like FCC-hh). FCC-hh are dominated by the production of SR, which causes a significant heat load on the accelerator walls. Removal of such a heat load in the cold part of the machine, as done in the Large Hadron Collider, will require more than 100 MW of electrical power and a major cooling system. We studied a totally different approach, identifying an accelerator beam screen whose illuminated surface is able to forward reflect most of the photons impinging onto it. Such a reflecting beam screen will transport a significant part of this heat load outside the cold dipoles. Then, in room temperature sections, it could be more efficiently dissipated. Here we will analyze the proposed solution and address its full compatibility with all other aspects an accelerator beam screen must fulfill to keep under control beam instabilities as caused by electron cloud formation, impedance, dynamic vacuum issues, etc. If experimentally fully validated, a highly reflecting beam screen surface will provide a viable and solid solution to be eligible as a baseline design in FCC-hh projects to come, rendering them more cost effective and sustainable.

  17. Potential Remedies for the High Synchrotron-Radiation-Induced Heat Load for Future Highest-Energy-Proton Circular Colliders.

    PubMed

    Cimino, R; Baglin, V; Schäfers, F

    2015-12-31

    We propose a new method for handling the high synchrotron radiation (SR) induced heat load of future circular hadron colliders (like FCC-hh). FCC-hh are dominated by the production of SR, which causes a significant heat load on the accelerator walls. Removal of such a heat load in the cold part of the machine, as done in the Large Hadron Collider, will require more than 100 MW of electrical power and a major cooling system. We studied a totally different approach, identifying an accelerator beam screen whose illuminated surface is able to forward reflect most of the photons impinging onto it. Such a reflecting beam screen will transport a significant part of this heat load outside the cold dipoles. Then, in room temperature sections, it could be more efficiently dissipated. Here we will analyze the proposed solution and address its full compatibility with all other aspects an accelerator beam screen must fulfill to keep under control beam instabilities as caused by electron cloud formation, impedance, dynamic vacuum issues, etc. If experimentally fully validated, a highly reflecting beam screen surface will provide a viable and solid solution to be eligible as a baseline design in FCC-hh projects to come, rendering them more cost effective and sustainable.

  18. Potential Remedies for the High Synchrotron-Radiation-Induced Heat Load for Future Highest-Energy-Proton Circular Colliders.

    PubMed

    Cimino, R; Baglin, V; Schäfers, F

    2015-12-31

    We propose a new method for handling the high synchrotron radiation (SR) induced heat load of future circular hadron colliders (like FCC-hh). FCC-hh are dominated by the production of SR, which causes a significant heat load on the accelerator walls. Removal of such a heat load in the cold part of the machine, as done in the Large Hadron Collider, will require more than 100 MW of electrical power and a major cooling system. We studied a totally different approach, identifying an accelerator beam screen whose illuminated surface is able to forward reflect most of the photons impinging onto it. Such a reflecting beam screen will transport a significant part of this heat load outside the cold dipoles. Then, in room temperature sections, it could be more efficiently dissipated. Here we will analyze the proposed solution and address its full compatibility with all other aspects an accelerator beam screen must fulfill to keep under control beam instabilities as caused by electron cloud formation, impedance, dynamic vacuum issues, etc. If experimentally fully validated, a highly reflecting beam screen surface will provide a viable and solid solution to be eligible as a baseline design in FCC-hh projects to come, rendering them more cost effective and sustainable. PMID:26764998

  19. Micro-Columnated Loop Heat Pipe: The Future of Electronic Substrates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dhillon, Navdeep Singh

    The modern world is run by semiconductor-based electronic systems. Due to continuous improvements in semiconductor device fabrication, there is a clear trend in the market towards the development of electronic devices and components that not only deliver enhanced computing power, but are also more compact. Thermal management has emerged as the primary challenge in this scenario where heat flux dissipation of electronic chips is increasing exponentially, but conventional cooling solutions such as conduction and convection are no longer feasible. To keep device junction temperatures within the safe operating limit, there is an urgent requirement for ultra-high-conductivity thermal substrates that not only absorb and transport large heat fluxes, but can also provide localized cooling to thermal hotspots. This dissertation describes the design, modeling, and fabrication of a phase change-based, planar, ultra-thin, passive thermal transport system that is inspired by the concept of loop heat pipes and capillary pumped loops. Fabricated on silicon and Pyrex wafers using microfabrication techniques, the micro-columnated loop heat pipe (muCLHP) can be integrated directly with densely packed or multiply-stacked electronic substrates, to provide localized high-heat-flux thermal management. The muCLHP employs a dual-scale coherent porous silicon(CPS)-based micro-columnated wicking structure, where the primary CPS wick provides large capillary forces for fluid transport, while a secondary surface-wick maximizes the rate of thin-film evaporation. To overcome the wick thickness limitation encountered in conventional loop heat pipes, strategies based on MEMS surface micromachining techniques were developed to reduce parasitic heat flow from the evaporator to the compensation chamber of the device. Finite element analysis was used to confirm this reduction in a planar evaporator design, thus enabling the generation of a large motive temperature head for continuous device operation

  20. A Review of the Experimental and Modeling Development of a Water Phase Change Heat Exchanger for Future Exploration Support Vehicles

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cognata, Thomas; Leimkuehler, Thomas; Ramaswamy, Balasubramaniam; Nayagam, Vedha; Hasan, Mohammad; Stephan, Ryan

    2011-01-01

    Water affords manifold benefits for human space exploration. Its properties make it useful for the storage of thermal energy as a Phase Change Material (PCM) in thermal control systems, in radiation shielding against Solar Particle Events (SPE) for the protection of crew members, and it is indisputably necessary for human life support. This paper envisions a single application for water which addresses these benefits for future exploration support vehicles and it describes recent experimental and modeling work that has been performed in order to arrive at a description of the thermal behavior of such a system. Experimental units have been developed and tested which permit the evaluation of the many parameters of design for such a system with emphasis on the latent energy content, temperature rise, mass, and interstitial material geometry. The experimental results are used to develop a robust and well correlated model which is intended to guide future design efforts toward the multi-purposed water PCM heat exchanger envisioned.

  1. Cool sound: the future of refrigeration? Thermodynamic and heat transfer issues in thermoacoustic refrigeration

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Herman, C.; Travnicek, Z.

    2006-04-01

    During the past two decades the thermoacoustic refrigeration and prime mover cycles gained importance in a variety of refrigeration applications. Acoustic work, sound, can be used to generate temperature differences that allow the transport of heat from a low temperature reservoir to an ambient at higher temperature, thus forming a thermoacoustic refrigeration system. The thermoacoustic energy pumping cycle can also be reversed: temperature difference imposed along the stack plates can lead to sound generation. In this situation the thermoacoustic system operates as a prime mover. Sound generated by means of this thermoacoustic energy conversion process can be utilized to drive different types of refrigeration devices that require oscillatory flow for their operation, such as thermoacoustic refrigerators, pulse tubes and Stirling engines. In order for a thermoacoustic refrigeration or prime mover system as well as a thermoacoustic prime mover driving a non-thermoacoustic refrigeration system to be competitive on the current market, it has to be optimized in order to improve its overall performance. Optimization can involve improving the performance of the entire system as well as its components. The paper addresses some of the thermodynamic and heat transfer issues relevant in improving the performance of the thermoacoustic system, such as optimization for maximum COP, maximum cooling load and the role of the heat exchangers. Results obtained using the two optimization criteria are contrasted in the paper to illustrate the complexity of the optimization process.

  2. Investigation of the impact of extreme air temperature on river water temperature: case study of the heat episode 2013.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weihs, Philipp; Trimmel, Heidelinde; Goler, Robert; Formayer, Herbert; Holzapfel, Gerda; Rauch, Hans Peter

    2014-05-01

    Water stream temperature is a relevant factor for water quality since it is an important driver of water oxygen content and in turn also reduces or increases stress on the aquatic fauna. The water temperature of streams is determined by the source and inflow water temperature, by the energy balance at the stream surface and by the hydrological regime of the stream. Main factors driving the energy balance of streams are radiation balance and air temperature which influences the sensitive and latent heat flux. The present study investigates the impact of the heat episode of summer 2013 on water temperature of two lowland rivers in south eastern Austria. Within the scope of the project BIO_CLIC routine measurements of water temperature at 33 locations alongside the rivers Pinka and Lafnitz have been performed since spring 2012. In addition meteorological measurements of global shortwave and longwave radiation, air temperature, wind and air humidity have been carried out during this time. For the same time period, data of discharge and water levels of both rivers were provided by the public hydrological office. The heat episode of summer 2013 started, according to the Kysely- definition, on 18 July and lasted until 14 August. The highest air temperature ever recorded in Austria was reported on 8 August at 40.5°C. In Güssing, which is located within the project area, 40.0 °C were recorded. In the lower reaches of the river Pinka, at the station Burg the monthly mean water temperature of August 2013 was with more than 22°C, 1°C higher than the mean water temperature of the same period of the previous years. At the same station, the maximum water temperature of 27.1°C was recorded on 29 July, 9 days prior to the air temperature record. Analysis shows that at the downstream stations the main driving parameter is solar radiation whereas at the upstream stations a better correlation between air temperature and water temperature is obtained. Using the extensive data set

  3. Living, training and playing in the heat: challenges to the football player and strategies for coping with environmental extremes.

    PubMed

    Maughan, R J; Shirreffs, S M; Ozgünen, K T; Kurdak, S S; Ersöz, G; Binnet, M S; Dvorak, J

    2010-10-01

    Dehydration and hyperthermia both, if sufficiently severe, will impair exercise performance. Dehydration can also impair performance of tasks requiring cognition and skill. Body temperature may exceed 40 °C in competitive games played in hot weather, but limited data are available. Football played in the heat, therefore, poses a challenge, and effects on some aspects of performance become apparent as environmental temperature increases above about 12-15 °C. Prior acclimatization will reduce the impact of high environmental temperatures but provides limited protection when humidity is also high. Ingestion of fluids is effective in limiting the detrimental effects on performance: drinks with added carbohydrate and electrolytes are generally more effective than plain water and drinks may be more effective if taken cold than if taken at ambient temperature. Pre-exercise lowering of body temperature may aid some aspects of performance, but the efficacy has not been demonstrated in football.

  4. Liquid Fuel from Heat-Loving Microorganisms: H2-Dependent Conversion of CO2 to Liquid Electrofuels by Extremely Thermophilic Archaea

    SciTech Connect

    2010-07-01

    Electrofuels Project: NC State is working with the University of Georgia to create Electrofuels from primitive organisms called extremophiles that evolved before photosynthetic organisms and live in extreme, hot water environments with temperatures ranging from 167-212 degrees Fahrenheit The team is genetically engineering these microorganisms so they can use hydrogen to turn carbon dioxide directly into alcohol-based fuels. High temperatures are required to distill the biofuels from the water where the organisms live, but the heat-tolerant organisms will continue to thrive even as the biofuels are being distilled—making the fuel-production process more efficient. The microorganisms don’t require light, so they can be grown anywhere—inside a dark reactor or even in an underground facility.

  5. Strength of metals in liquid and solid states at extremely high tension produced by femtosecond laser heating

    SciTech Connect

    Ashitkov, Sergey I.; Inogamov, Nail A.; Komarov, Pavel S.; Zhakhovsky, Vasily V.; Oleynik, Ivan I.; Agranat, Mikhail B.; Kanel, Gennady I.; Fortov, Vladimir E.

    2012-07-30

    We will discuss results of combined experimental and theoretical investigations of ablation and laser-driven shock-wave phenomena in metal films irradiated by femtosecond laser pulses. The femtosecond interferometric microscopy technique was used to make time-resolved measurements of optical properties as well as record the deformation dynamics at both the rear and frontal surfaces during initial two-temperature electron-ion relaxation and subsequent hydrodynamic expansion. In conjunction with experiment, the formation and propagation of strong tensile and compression waves were investigated by a combination of two-temperature hydrodynamic modeling and molecular dynamics simulations. The experimental tensile strengths of aluminum and nickel in solid and liquid states at extremely high strain rates in range 10{sup 8} Division-Sign 10{sup 9}s{sup -1} were obtained from the time evolution of rear and frontal surface velocities. Theoretical tensile strengths calculated by atomistic simulations of ablation and spallation using micron-sized films agree well with experiment. Elastic-plastic response of metallic films to shock compression investigated by both experiment and theory/modeling will also be discussed.

  6. Mapping occupational heat exposure and effects in South-East Asia: ongoing time trends 1980-2011 and future estimates to 2050.

    PubMed

    Kjellstrom, Tord; Lemke, Bruno; Otto, Matthias

    2013-01-01

    A feature of climate impacts on occupational health and safety are physiological limits to carrying out physical work at high heat exposure. Heat stress reduces a workers work capacity, leading to lower hourly labour productivity and economic output. We used existing weather station data and climate modeling grid cell data to describe heat conditions (calculated as Wet Bulb Globe Temperature, WBGT) in South-East Asia. During the hottest month in this region (March) afternoon WBGT levels are already high enough to cause major loss of hourly work capacity and by 2050 the situation will be extreme for many outdoor jobs. PMID:23411757

  7. Teleconnection, Regime Shift, and Predictability of Climate Extremes: A Case Study for the Russian Heat Wave and Pakistan Flood in Summer 2010

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lau, W. K.; Reale, O.; Kim, K.

    2011-01-01

    In this talk, we present observational evidence showing that the two major extremes events of the summer of 2010, i.e., the Russian heat wave and the Pakistan flood were physically connected. We find that the Pakistan flood was contributed by a series of unusually heavy rain events over the upper Indus River Basin in July-August. The rainfall regimes shifted from an episodic heavy rain regime in mid-to-late July to a steady heavy rain regime in August. An atmospheric Rossby wave associated with the development of the Russian heat wave was instrumental in spurring the episodic rain events , drawing moisture from the Bay of Bengal and the northern Arabian Sea. The steady rain regime was maintained primarily by monsoon moisture surges from the deep tropics. From experiments with the GEOS-5 forecast system, we assess the predictability of the heavy rain events associated with the Pakistan flood. Preliminary results indicate that there are significantly higher skills in the rainfall forecasts during the episodic heavy rain events in July, compared to the steady rain period in early to mid-August. The change in rainfall predictability may be related to scale interactions between the extratropics and the tropics resulting in a modulation of rainfall predictability by the circulation regimes.

  8. Teleconnection, regime shift, and predictability of climate extremes: A case study for the Russian heat wave and Pakistan flood in summer 2010.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lau, W. K.; Reale, O.; Kim, K.

    2011-12-01

    In this talk, we present observational evidence showing that the two major extremes events of the summer of 2010, i.e., the Russian heat wave and the Pakistan flood were physically connected. We find that the Pakistan flood was contributed by a series of unusually heavy rain events over the upper Indus River Basin in July-August. The rainfall regimes shifted from an episodic heavy rain regime in mid-to-late July to a steady heavy rain regime in August. An atmospheric Rossby wave associated with the development of the Russian heat wave was instrumental in spurring the episodic rain events , drawing moisture from the Bay of Bengal and the northern Arabian Sea. The steady rain regime was maintained primarily by monsoon moisture surges from the deep tropics. From experiments with the GEOS-5 forecast system, we assess the predictability of the heavy rain events associated with the Pakistan flood. Preliminary results indicate that there are significantly higher skills in the rainfall forecasts during the episodic heavy rain events in July, compared to the steady rain period in early to mid-August. The change in rainfall predictability may be related to scale interactions between the extratropics and the tropics, resulting in a modulation of rainfall predictability by the circulation regimes.

  9. US CLIVAR Extremes Working Group Results, Recommendations, and Recourses

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grotjahn, R.

    2015-12-01

    The topic of extreme weather and climate is very broad. One can easily list a dozen different types of atmospheric extreme phenomena. In addition, some extreme phenomena have multiple types of extremes as well as categories of extremes. The first US CLIVAR working group on extremes (EWG) chose to narrow the extreme phenomena to temperature and precipitation extremes having a time scale of a few days to a week. The primary extremes considered were short term heat waves, cold air outbreaks, and extreme precipitation not from tropical cyclones. All of these have produced multi-billion dollar losses in recent years. Even this subset of extremes is very broad, so additional focus was placed upon the large scale meteorological patterns (LSMPs) that accompany these extremes. This working group was most active from its inception in 2012 until its nominal ending in 2015. Additional work continues, including follow-on activities spawned or informed by the EWG. In this talk, the EWG activities are summarized in four areas: data for extremes, statistical analyses applicable to extremes, synoptic-dynamics of these extremes, and simulation of these extremes in climate models. The emphasis will be upon knowledge gaps and recommended further actions in these four areas. The recommendations span basic science through applications. The EWG participation included input into the US CLIVAR science plan, as one of the four research challenges there being 'extremes'. A scientific session at this AGU meeting was a direct outgrowth of the EWG 2013 workshop. Other follow-on work includes consultation with various national and international efforts in extremes. Finally, some possible future applications of the EWG efforts, such as adequate datasets and climate model diagnostic tools, will be mentioned that may inform providers of information having direct interest to end-users.

  10. The contribution to future flood risk in the Severn Estuary from extreme sea level rise due to ice sheet mass loss

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Quinn, N.; Bates, P. D.; Siddall, M.

    2013-12-01

    The rate at which sea levels will rise in the coming century is of great interest to decision makers tasked with developing mitigation policies to cope with the risk of coastal inundation. Accurate estimates of future sea levels are vital in the provision of effective policy. Recent reports from UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP) suggest that mean sea levels in the UK may rise by as much as 80 cm by 2100; however, a great deal of uncertainty surrounds model predictions, particularly the contribution from ice sheets responding to climatic warming. For this reason, the application of semi-empirical modelling approaches for sea level rise predictions has increased of late, the results from which suggest that the rate of sea level rise may be greater than previously thought, exceeding 1 m by 2100. Furthermore, studies in the Red Sea indicate that rapid sea level rise beyond 1m per century has occurred in the past. In light of such research, the latest UKCIP assessment has included a H++ scenario for sea level rise in the UK of up to 1.9 m which is defined as improbable but, crucially, physically plausible. The significance of such low-probability sea level rise scenarios upon the estimation of future flood risk is assessed using the Somerset levels (UK) as a case study. A simple asymmetric probability distribution is constructed to include sea level rise scenarios of up to 1.9 m by 2100 which are added to a current 1:200 year event water level to force a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model of coastal inundation. From the resulting ensemble predictions an estimation of risk by 2100 is established. The results indicate that although the likelihood of extreme sea level rise due to rapid ice sheet mass loss is low, the resulting hazard can be large, resulting in a significant (27%) increase to the projected annual risk. Furthermore, current defence construction guidelines for the coming century in the UK are expected to account for 95% of the sea level rise distribution

  11. Caribbean Heat Threatens Health, Well-being and the Future of Humanity

    PubMed Central

    Macpherson, Cheryl C.; Akpinar-Elci, Muge

    2015-01-01

    Climate change has substantial impacts on public health and safety, disease risks and the provision of health care, with the poor being particularly disadvantaged. Management of the associated health risks and changing health service requirements requires adequate responses at local levels. Health-care providers are central to these responses. While climate change raises ethical questions about its causes, impacts and social justice, medicine and bioethics typically focus on individual patients and research participants rather than these broader issues. We broaden this focus by examining awareness among health-care providers in the Caribbean region, where geographic and socioeconomic features pose particular vulnerabilities to climate change. In focus groups, Caribbean providers described rises in mosquito-borne, flood-related, heat-related, respiratory and mental illnesses, and attributed these to local impacts of climate change. Their discussions showed that the significance of these impacts differs in different Caribbean nations, raising policy and social justice questions. Bioethics and public health ethics are situated to frame, inform and initiate public and policy dialog about values and scientific evidence associated with climate change. We urge readers to initiate such dialog within their own institutions about the context-dependent nature of the burdens of climate change, and values and policies that permit it to worsen. PMID:26180551

  12. Proposed modification to the specification for dry heat microbial reduction of spacecraft hardware for future US missions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    James; Spry, A.; Beaudet, Robert; Schubert, Wayne

    Dry heat microbial reduction (DHMR) is the primary technique used to reduce the microbial load of spacecraft and component parts to comply with planetary protection requirements. Often, manufacturing processes involve heating flight hardware to high temperatures for purposes other than planetary protection DHMR. At present, the existing specification in NASA document NPR8020.12C, describing the process lethality on B. atrophaeus (ATCC 9372) bacterial spores, does not allow for additional planetary protection bioburden reduction credit for processing outside a narrow temperature, time and humidity window. However, recent studies (Schubert et al., COSPAR 2008) from a comprehensive multi-year laboratory research effort have generated enhanced data sets on four aspects of the current specification: time and temperature combination effects, the effect that humidity has on spore lethality, the lethality for spores with exceptionally high thermal resistance (so called "hardies"), and the extended exposure requirement for encapsulated microorganisms. This paper describes proposed modifications to the specification, based on the data set generated in the referenced study. The proposed modifications are intended to broaden the scope of the current specification while still maintaining a confident conservative interpretation of the lethality of the DHMR process on microorganisms. Potential cost and schedule benefits to future missions utilizing the revised specification will be highlighted.

  13. Climate extremes and the carbon cycle (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reichstein, M.; Bahn, M.; Ciais, P.; Mahecha, M. D.; Seneviratne, S. I.; Zscheischler, J.

    2013-12-01

    The terrestrial biosphere is a key component of the global carbon cycle and its carbon balance is strongly influenced by climate. Ongoing environmental changes are thought to increase global terrestrial carbon uptake. But evidence is mounting that rare climate extremes can lead to a decrease in ecosystem carbon stocks and therefore have the potential to negate the expected increase in terrestrial carbon uptake. Here we explore the mechanisms and impacts of climate extremes on the terrestrial carbon cycle, and propose a pathway to improve our understanding of present and future impacts of climate extremes on the terrestrial carbon budget. In addition to direct impact on the carbon fluxes of photosynthesis and respiration via extreme temperature and (or) drought, effects of extreme events may also lead to lagged responses, such as wildfires triggered by heat waves and droughts, or pest and pathogen outbreaks following wind-throw caused by heavy storms, reduced plant health due to drought stress or due to less frequent cold extremes in presently cold regions. One extreme event can potentially override accumulated previous carbon sinks, as shown by the Western European 2003 heat wave.. Extreme events have the potential to affect the terrestrial ecosystem carbon balance through a single factor, or as a combination of factors. Climate extremes can cause carbon losses from accumulated stocks, as well as long-lasting impacts on (e.g. lagged effects) on plant growth and mortality, extending beyond the duration of the extreme event itself. The sensitivity of terrestrial ecosystems and their carbon balance to climate change and extreme events varies according to the type of extreme, the climatic region, the land cover, and the land management. Extreme event impacts are very relevant in forests due to the importance of lagged and memory effects on tree growth and mortality, the longevity of tree species, the large forest carbon stocks and their vulnerability, as well as the

  14. Coping with heat in the city: what can we learn from a survey immediately after a hot weather period for future heat waves?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kunz-Plapp, Tina; Schipper, Hans; Hackenbruch, Julia

    2015-04-01

    Karlsruhe is one of the hottest cities in Germany with a temperature record of 40.2°C in August 2003. In 2013, two hot weather periods with continuous heat warnings by the German Weather Service for 7 and 8 days occurred during the second half of July and first 10 days of August 2013, and in early August the temperatures in Karlsruhe almost reached again the record of 40.2°C. To understand how citizens experienced the heat and what strategies they used to cope with the heat, we conducted a questionnaire survey on subjective heat stress and coping strategies immediately after the hot weather period. Based on a holistic approach the questionnaire included questions on heat stress experience in different contexts of daily life, health impacts of the heat, coping measures, housing conditions, urban environment, living conditions, and socio-demographic characteristics. The responses of the 323 survey participants living and working in Karlsruhe show that they on average experienced the heat as rather stressful event, whereby the heat stress experienced at home was significant lower than heat stress experienced at work or in general. Regression analyses show that, among the factors included in the questionnaire, the health impairments suffered during the heat, the control belief and the coping measures implemented mainly determine heat stress experienced in general and at work. For the subjective heat stress at home, factors of the built urban environment such as heat loading of district, living in the attic or the ground floor, and heat protection elements of the inhabited building also played a role. At the same time, the way the respondents used different coping strategies in context of their daily activities and routines during heat suggests lessons to learn from this event how individual response to heat differs from responses to other types of natural hazards.

  15. Rising sea levels will reduce extreme temperature variations in tide-dominated reef habitats

    PubMed Central

    Lowe, Ryan Joseph; Pivan, Xavier; Falter, James; Symonds, Graham; Gruber, Renee

    2016-01-01

    Temperatures within shallow reefs often differ substantially from those in the surrounding ocean; therefore, predicting future patterns of thermal stresses and bleaching at the scale of reefs depends on accurately predicting reef heat budgets. We present a new framework for quantifying how tidal and solar heating cycles interact with reef morphology to control diurnal temperature extremes within shallow, tidally forced reefs. Using data from northwestern Australia, we construct a heat budget model to investigate how frequency differences between the dominant lunar semidiurnal tide and diurnal solar cycle drive ~15-day modulations in diurnal temperature extremes. The model is extended to show how reefs with tidal amplitudes comparable to their depth, relative to mean sea level, tend to experience the largest temperature extremes globally. As a consequence, we reveal how even a modest sea level rise can substantially reduce temperature extremes within tide-dominated reefs, thereby partially offsetting the local effects of future ocean warming. PMID:27540589

  16. Rising sea levels will reduce extreme temperature variations in tide-dominated reef habitats.

    PubMed

    Lowe, Ryan Joseph; Pivan, Xavier; Falter, James; Symonds, Graham; Gruber, Renee

    2016-08-01

    Temperatures within shallow reefs often differ substantially from those in the surrounding ocean; therefore, predicting future patterns of thermal stresses and bleaching at the scale of reefs depends on accurately predicting reef heat budgets. We present a new framework for quantifying how tidal and solar heating cycles interact with reef morphology to control diurnal temperature extremes within shallow, tidally forced reefs. Using data from northwestern Australia, we construct a heat budget model to investigate how frequency differences between the dominant lunar semidiurnal tide and diurnal solar cycle drive ~15-day modulations in diurnal temperature extremes. The model is extended to show how reefs with tidal amplitudes comparable to their depth, relative to mean sea level, tend to experience the largest temperature extremes globally. As a consequence, we reveal how even a modest sea level rise can substantially reduce temperature extremes within tide-dominated reefs, thereby partially offsetting the local effects of future ocean warming. PMID:27540589

  17. Rising sea levels will reduce extreme temperature variations in tide-dominated reef habitats.

    PubMed

    Lowe, Ryan Joseph; Pivan, Xavier; Falter, James; Symonds, Graham; Gruber, Renee

    2016-08-01

    Temperatures within shallow reefs often differ substantially from those in the surrounding ocean; therefore, predicting future patterns of thermal stresses and bleaching at the scale of reefs depends on accurately predicting reef heat budgets. We present a new framework for quantifying how tidal and solar heating cycles interact with reef morphology to control diurnal temperature extremes within shallow, tidally forced reefs. Using data from northwestern Australia, we construct a heat budget model to investigate how frequency differences between the dominant lunar semidiurnal tide and diurnal solar cycle drive ~15-day modulations in diurnal temperature extremes. The model is extended to show how reefs with tidal amplitudes comparable to their depth, relative to mean sea level, tend to experience the largest temperature extremes globally. As a consequence, we reveal how even a modest sea level rise can substantially reduce temperature extremes within tide-dominated reefs, thereby partially offsetting the local effects of future ocean warming.

  18. Regional climate modeling of heat stress, frost, and water stress events in the agricultural region of Southwest Western Australia under the current climate and future climate scenarios.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kala, Jatin; Lyons, Tom J.; Abbs, Deborah J.; Foster, Ian J.

    2010-05-01

    Heat stress, frost, and water stress events have significant impacts on grain quality and production within the agricultural region (wheat-belt) of Southwest Western Australia (SWWA) (Cramb, 2000) and understanding how the frequency and intensity of these events will change in the future is crucial for management purposes. Hence, the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (Pielke et al, 1992) (RAMS Version 6.0) is used to simulate the past 10 years of the climate of SWWA at a 20 km grid resolution by down-scaling the 6-hourly 1.0 by 1.0 degree National Center for Environmental Prediction Final Analyses from December 1999 to Present. Daily minimum and maximum temperatures, as well as daily rainfall are validated against observations. Simulations of future climate are carried out by down-scaling the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) Mark 3.5 General Circulation Model (Gordon et al, 2002) for 10 years (2046-2055) under the SRES A2 scenario using the Cubic Conformal Atmospheric Model (CCAM) (McGregor and Dix, 2008). The 6-hourly CCAM output is then downscaled to a 20 km resolution using RAMS. Changes in extreme events are discussed within the context of the continued viability of agriculture in SWWA. Cramb, J. (2000) Climate in relation to agriculture in south-western Australia. In: The Wheat Book (Eds W. K. Anderson and J. R. Garlinge). Bulletin 4443. Department of Agriculture, Western Australia. Gordon, H. B., Rotstayn, L. D., McGregor, J. L., Dix, M. R., Kowalczyk, E. A., O'Farrell, S. P., Waterman, L. J., Hirst, A. C., Wilson, S. G., Collier, M. A., Watterson, I. G., and Elliott, T. I. (2002). The CSIRO Mk3 Climate System Model [Electronic publication]. Aspendale: CSIRO Atmospheric Research. (CSIRO Atmospheric Research technical paper; no. 60). 130 p McGregor, J. L., and Dix, M. R., (2008) An updated description of the conformal-cubic atmospheric model. High Resolution Simulation of the Atmosphere and Ocean, Hamilton, K. and Ohfuchi

  19. Estimating heat stress from climate-based indicators: present-day biases and future spreads in the CMIP5 global climate model ensemble

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhao, Y.; Ducharne, A.; Sultan, B.; Braconnot, P.; Vautard, R.

    2015-08-01

    The increased exposure of human populations to heat stress is one of the likely consequences of global warming, and it has detrimental effects on health and labor capacity. Here, we consider the evolution of heat stress under climate change using 21 general circulation models (GCMs). Three heat stress indicators, based on both temperature and humidity conditions, are used to investigate present-day model biases and spreads in future climate projections. Present day estimates of heat stress indicators from observational data shows that humid tropical areas tend to experience more frequent heat stress than other regions do, with a total frequency of heat stress 250-300 d yr-1. The most severe heat stress is found in the Sahel and south India. Present-day GCM simulations tend to underestimate heat stress over the tropics due to dry and cold model biases. The model based estimates are in better agreement with observation in mid to high latitudes, but this is due to compensating errors in humidity and temperature. The severity of heat stress is projected to increase by the end of the century under climate change scenario RCP8.5, reaching unprecedented levels in some regions compared with observations. An analysis of the different factors contributing to the total spread of projected heat stress shows that spread is primarily driven by the choice of GCMs rather than the choice of indicators, even when the simulated indicators are bias-corrected. This supports the utility of the multi-model ensemble approach to assess the impacts of climate change on heat stress.

  20. Charge exchange recombination spectroscopy measurements in the extreme ultraviolet region of central carbon concentrations during high power neutral beam heating in TFTR (Tokamak Fusion Test Reactor)

    SciTech Connect

    Stratton, B.C.; Fonck, R.J.; Ramsey, A.T.; Synakowski, E.J.; Grek, B.; Hill, K.W.; Johnson, D.W.; Mansfield, D.K.; Park, H.; Taylor, G.; Valanju, P.M. . Plasma Physics Lab.; Texas Univ., Austin, TX . Fusion Research Center)

    1989-09-01

    The carbon concentration in the central region of TFTR discharges with high power neutral beam heating has been measured by charge-extracted recombination spectroscopy (CXRS) of the C{sup +5} n = 3--4 transition in the extreme ultraviolet region. The carbon concentrations were deduced from absolute measurements of the line brightness using a calculation of the beam attenuation and the appropriate cascade-corrected line excitation rates. As a result of the high ion temperatures in most of the discharges, the contribution of beam halo neutrals to the line brightness was significant and therefore had to be included in the modeling of the data. Carbon concentrations have been measured in discharges with I{sub p} = 1.0-1.6 MA and beam power in the range of 2.6-30 MW, including a number of supershots. The results are in good agreement with carbon concentrations deduced from the visible bremsstrahlung Z{sub eff} and metallic impurity concentrations measured by x-ray pulse-height analysis, demonstrating the reliability of the atomic rates used in the beam attenuation and line excitation calculations. Carbon is the dominant impurity species in these discharges; the oxygen concentration measured via CXRS in a high beam power case was 0.0006 of n{sub e}, compard to 0.04 for carbon. Trends with I{sub p} and beam power in the carbon concentration and the inferred deuteron concentration are presented. The carbon concentration is independent of I{sub p} and decreases from 0.13 at 2.6 MW beam power to 0.04 at 30 MW, while the deuteron concentration increases from 0.25 to 0.75 over the same range of beam power. These changes are primarily the result of beam particle fueling, as the carbon density did not vary significantly with beam power. The time evolutions of the carbon and deuteron concentrations during two high power beam pulses, one which exhibited a carbon bloom and one which did not, are compared. 30 refs., 12 figs., 2 tabs.

  1. Heat exposure, cardiovascular stress and work productivity in rice harvesters in India: implications for a climate change future.

    PubMed

    Sahu, Subhashis; Sett, Moumita; Kjellstrom, Tord

    2013-01-01

    Excessive workplace heat exposures create well-known risks of heat stroke, and it limits the workers' capacity to sustain physical activity. There is very limited evidence available on how these effects reduce work productivity, while the quantitative relationship between heat and work productivity is an essential basis for climate change impact assessments. We measured hourly heat exposure in rice fields in West Bengal and recorded perceived health problems via interviews of 124 rice harvesters. In a sub-group (n = 48) heart rate was recorded every minute in a standard work situation. Work productivity was recorded as hourly rice bundle collection output. The hourly heat levels (WBGT = Wet Bulb Globe Temperature) were 26-32°C (at air temperatures of 30-38°C), exceeding international standards. Most workers reported exhaustion and pain during work on hot days. Heart rate recovered quickly at low heat, but more slowly at high heat, indicating cardiovascular strain. The hourly number of rice bundles collected was significantly reduced at WBGT>26°C (approximately 5% per°C of increased WBGT). We conclude that high heat exposure in agriculture caused heat strain and reduced work productivity. This reduction will be exacerbated by climate change and may undermine the local economy.

  2. It's Not Just the Heat, It's the Humidity: Downscaled Wet-Bulb Temperature Projections and Implication for Future Summer Experiences from the American Climate Prospectus

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rasmussen, D.; Kopp, R. E., III

    2014-12-01

    The health impacts of extreme heat are significantly aggravated when combined with high humidity [1]. Wet-bulb temperature (TwT_w), measured by wrapping a thermometer in a wetted cloth and fully ventilating it, provides a physical metric of the combined effect of both heat and humidity. TwT_w in excess of 30∘^circC is extremely dangerous and has been observed in the US only during the peak of the 1995 Midwest heat wave. Historically unprecedented TwT_w in excess of 33∘^circC represents an extreme threat to human health, with heat stroke likely for fit individuals after less than one hour of shaded activity [2,3]. We present an empirical method for generating downscaled probability distributions of daily maximum TwT_w conditional on dry-bulb temperature. The approach is based upon the statistical relationship between these two parameters, as estimated from reanalysis data. Using statistically downscaled temperature projections for Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 8.5, 4.5 and 2.6, we project changes in TwT_w for the next two centuries. We find that dangerously humid days (TwT_w > 27∘^circC) will become increasingly common in the eastern U.S. under RCP 8.5, with the expected number of days per summer surpassing those of Louisiana today in Chicago in 25 years, Washington, D.C. in 30 years, New York City in 50 years and Portland in 60 years. By the end of the century under RCP 8.5, one extraordinarily dangerous (TwT_w > 33∘^circC) day per year is expected in counties currently home to about one-third of the U.S. population. Mitigation can significantly the expected number of extreme wet-bulb temperature days, with only one-eighth of the U.S. population in counties with a 1-in-10 chance per year of an extraordinarily dangerous day by the end of the century under RCP 4.5. References: [1] Liang et al. (2011), Building and Environment 46: 2472-2479, doi:10.1016/j.buildenv.2011.06.013. [2] T. Houser et al. (2014), American Climate Prospectus, www

  3. Responses of greenhouse gas fluxes to climate extremes in a semiarid grassland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Linfeng; Fan, Wenyu; Kang, Xiaoming; Wang, Yanfen; Cui, Xiaoyong; Xu, Chengyuan; Griffin, Kevin L.; Hao, Yanbin

    2016-10-01

    Climate extremes are expected to increase in frequency and intensity as a consequence of anthropogenic climate change attributed to the rise of atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs). However, studies on the impacts of climate extremes on terrestrial ecosystems are limited. Here, we experimentally imposed extreme drought and a heat wave (∼60-year recurrence) to investigate their effects on GHGs fluxes of a semiarid grassland in China. We estimated a 16% and 38% percent reduction in net ecosystem CO2 uptake caused by the heat wave and drought respectively, but via different mechanisms. Drought reduced gross ecosystem productively (GEP) and to a lower extent ecosystem respiration (ER). By contrast, the simulated heat wave suppressed only GEP while ER remained stable. The climate extremes also created a legacy effect on GEP and NEE lasting until the end of the growing season, whereas ER recovered immediately. Although CH4 and N2O fluxes were unaffected by the heat wave, drought promoted CH4 uptake and suppressed N2O emission during the treatment period. The effect of drought on GHGs fluxes generally overwhelmed that of the heat wave treatment, and there were no interactive effects of these two types of climate extremes. Our results showed that responses of ecosystem GHGs exchange to climate extremes are strongly regulated by soil moisture status. In conclusion, future amplification of climate extremes could decrease the sink for GHGs, especially CO2, in this semiarid grasslands.

  4. A preliminary design and analysis of an advanced heat-rejection system for an extreme altitude advanced variable cycle diesel engine installed in a high-altitude advanced research platform

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Johnston, Richard P.

    1992-01-01

    Satellite surveillance in such areas as the Antarctic indicates that from time to time concentration of ozone grows and shrinks. An effort to obtain useful atmospheric data for determining the causes of ozone depletion would require a flight capable of reaching altitudes of at least 100,000 ft and flying subsonically during the sampling portion of the mission. A study of a heat rejection system for an advanced variable cycle diesel (AVCD) engine was conducted. The engine was installed in an extreme altitude, high altitude advanced research platform. Results indicate that the waste heat from an AVCD engine propulsion system can be rejected at the maximum cruise altitude of 120,000 ft. Fifteen performance points, reflecting the behavior of the engine as the vehicle proceeded through the mission, were used to characterize the heat exchanger operation. That portion of the study is described in a appendix titled, 'A Detailed Study of the Heat Rejection System for an Extreme Altitude Atmospheric Sampling Aircraft,' by a consultant, Mr. James Bourne, Lytron, Incorporated.

  5. Will extreme climatic events facilitate biological invasions?

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Extreme climatic events, such as intense heat waves, hurricanes, floods and droughts, can dramatically affect ecological and evolutionary processes, and more extreme events are projected with ongoing climate change. However, the implications of these events for biological invasions, which themselves...

  6. Electronics for Extreme Environments

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Patel, J. U.; Cressler, J.; Li, Y.; Niu, G.

    2001-01-01

    Most of the NASA missions involve extreme environments comprising radiation and low or high temperatures. Current practice of providing friendly ambient operating environment to electronics costs considerable power and mass (for shielding). Immediate missions such as the Europa orbiter and lander and Mars landers require the electronics to perform reliably in extreme conditions during the most critical part of the mission. Some other missions planned in the future also involve substantial surface activity in terms of measurements, sample collection, penetration through ice and crust and the analysis of samples. Thus it is extremely critical to develop electronics that could reliably operate under extreme space environments. Silicon On Insulator (SOI) technology is an extremely attractive candidate for NASA's future low power and high speed electronic systems because it offers increased transconductance, decreased sub-threshold slope, reduced short channel effects, elimination of kink effect, enhanced low field mobility, and immunity from radiation induced latch-up. A common belief that semiconductor devices function better at low temperatures is generally true for bulk devices but it does not hold true for deep sub-micron SOI CMOS devices with microscopic device features of 0.25 micrometers and smaller. Various temperature sensitive device parameters and device characteristics have recently been reported in the literature. Behavior of state of the art technology devices under such conditions needs to be evaluated in order to determine possible modifications in the device design for better performance and survivability under extreme environments. Here, we present a unique approach of developing electronics for extreme environments to benefit future NASA missions as described above. This will also benefit other long transit/life time missions such as the solar sail and planetary outposts in which electronics is out open in the unshielded space at the ambient space

  7. Projections of Future Changes in Extreme Precipitation Events in the Korean Peninsula based on Downscaling by RegCM3 of ECHO-G/S A2 Scenario data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shin, J.; Lee, H.; Cho, C.

    2010-12-01

    ECHO-G A2 climate scenario is transformed into fine resolution 60km data for East Asia and 20 km data for the Korean peninsula using the RegCM3 having a one-way double-nested system. Comparison between the downscaled and local observed precipitation explains that seasonal spatial patterns of downscaled precipitation show good agreements with those of observed data. In terms of magnitude, however, the data simulated by the ECHO-G/S demonstrate dry biases in the summer and fall precipitation amounts, even though regionally-averaged seasonal downscaled precipitation into 20-km nested grids show also good agreement with those observations. Analyses of future climate change scenarios as well as extreme event trends suggest the following projections: the air temperature which is projected to rise by 1.6 Celcius in the early 21st century and by 4.6 Celcius in the late century would increase water vapor content in the air and result in more heavy rainfalls in summer monsoon. Therefore, precipitation is projected to increase by 6.7 % in the early 21st century, and by 31.9% in the late. Extreme precipitation events would happen more frequently in the warmer climate change environments. To examine changes in extreme events, the generalized extreme value analysis methods for daily maximum rainfall in each year is employed. The results show that over the past 30 years (1971-2000), the peaks of the mean value (location) of the maximum rainfall and 20 year occurrence frequency (20-year return value) are found in the southern coast and Central inland provincial regions of the Korean peninsula, while in the 21st century, the location and 20-year return value over the Korean peninsula would increase in the southern coast, central inland, and northern regions above 39 ° N. Key words: downscaling, one-way double-nested system, generalized extreme value analysis, extreme climatic events Acknowledgement This research was supported by a grant (code#1-9-3) from Sustainable Water

  8. Investigating NARCCAP Precipitation Extremes via Bivariate Extreme Value Theory (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weller, G. B.; Cooley, D. S.; Sain, S. R.; Bukovsky, M. S.; Mearns, L. O.

    2013-12-01

    We introduce methodology from statistical extreme value theory to examine the ability of reanalysis-drive regional climate models to simulate past daily precipitation extremes. Going beyond a comparison of summary statistics such as 20-year return values, we study whether the most extreme precipitation events produced by climate model simulations exhibit correspondence to the most extreme events seen in observational records. The extent of this correspondence is formulated via the statistical concept of tail dependence. We examine several case studies of extreme precipitation events simulated by the six models of the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) driven by NCEP reanalysis. It is found that the NARCCAP models generally reproduce daily winter precipitation extremes along the Pacific coast quite well; in contrast, simulation of past daily summer precipitation extremes in a central US region is poor. Some differences in the strength of extremal correspondence are seen in the central region between models which employ spectral nudging and those which do not. We demonstrate how these techniques may be used to draw a link between extreme precipitation events and large-scale atmospheric drivers, as well as to downscale extreme precipitation simulated by a future run of a regional climate model. Specifically, we examine potential future changes in the nature of extreme precipitation along the Pacific coast produced by the pineapple express (PE) phenomenon. A link between extreme precipitation events and a "PE Index" derived from North Pacific sea-surface pressure fields is found. This link is used to study PE-influenced extreme precipitation produced by a future-scenario climate model run.

  9. A review of the progression and future implications of brain-computer interface therapies for restoration of distal upper extremity motor function after stroke.

    PubMed

    Remsik, Alexander; Young, Brittany; Vermilyea, Rebecca; Kiekhoefer, Laura; Abrams, Jessica; Evander Elmore, Samantha; Schultz, Paige; Nair, Veena; Edwards, Dorothy; Williams, Justin; Prabhakaran, Vivek

    2016-05-01

    Stroke is a leading cause of acquired disability resulting in distal upper extremity functional motor impairment. Stroke mortality rates continue to decline with advances in healthcare and medical technology. This has led to an increased demand for advanced, personalized rehabilitation. Survivors often experience some level of spontaneous recovery shortly after their stroke event, yet reach a functional plateau after which there is exiguous motor recovery. Nevertheless, studies have demonstrated the potential for recovery beyond this plateau. Non-traditional neurorehabilitation techniques, such as those incorporating the brain-computer interface (BCI), are being investigated for rehabilitation. BCIs may offer a gateway to the brain's plasticity and revolutionize how humans interact with the world. Non-invasive BCIs work by closing the proprioceptive feedback loop with real-time, multi-sensory feedback allowing for volitional modulation of brain signals to assist hand function. BCI technology potentially promotes neuroplasticity and Hebbian-based motor recovery by rewarding cortical activity associated with sensory-motor rhythms through use with a variety of self-guided and assistive modalities. PMID:27112213

  10. A review of the progression and future implications of brain-computer interface therapies for restoration of distal upper extremity motor function after stroke.

    PubMed

    Remsik, Alexander; Young, Brittany; Vermilyea, Rebecca; Kiekhoefer, Laura; Abrams, Jessica; Evander Elmore, Samantha; Schultz, Paige; Nair, Veena; Edwards, Dorothy; Williams, Justin; Prabhakaran, Vivek

    2016-05-01

    Stroke is a leading cause of acquired disability resulting in distal upper extremity functional motor impairment. Stroke mortality rates continue to decline with advances in healthcare and medical technology. This has led to an increased demand for advanced, personalized rehabilitation. Survivors often experience some level of spontaneous recovery shortly after their stroke event, yet reach a functional plateau after which there is exiguous motor recovery. Nevertheless, studies have demonstrated the potential for recovery beyond this plateau. Non-traditional neurorehabilitation techniques, such as those incorporating the brain-computer interface (BCI), are being investigated for rehabilitation. BCIs may offer a gateway to the brain's plasticity and revolutionize how humans interact with the world. Non-invasive BCIs work by closing the proprioceptive feedback loop with real-time, multi-sensory feedback allowing for volitional modulation of brain signals to assist hand function. BCI technology potentially promotes neuroplasticity and Hebbian-based motor recovery by rewarding cortical activity associated with sensory-motor rhythms through use with a variety of self-guided and assistive modalities.

  11. Ocean-Atmosphere Heat Exchange: Limitations of Currently Available Datasets and Potential for Future Progress (Solicited Talk)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Josey, Simon

    2016-04-01

    The flux of heat between the ocean and the atmosphere is a key element of the global climate system, central to variations in the ocean heat budget and variations in surface temperature. Factors determining the heat exchange will be discussed using models and observations with an emphasis on the period 1990-2015. This period include changes associated with the potential warming hiatus and more recently the major El Nino event that developed in 2015. The ability of leading datasets to reliably estimate surface flux changes is limited by a number of factors and these will be discussed in the context of variations in other components of the climate system. Progress towards obtaining more reliable climatological estimates of the heat exchange will also be considered with reference to recent developments using residual techniques and ocean reanalyses in addition to atmospheric reanalysis, remote sensing and ship based datasets. In addition, use of surface meteorological fields to generate ocean model forcing will be examined together with recent developments using high resolution coupled ocean-atmosphere models. Finally, the potential for significant advances in regions of major uncertainty using the growing network of surface flux buoys will be discussed with a focus on two moorings now in place in the Southern Ocean.

  12. Extreme ion heating in the dayside ionosphere in response to the arrival of a coronal mass ejection on 12 March 2012

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fujiwara, H.; Nozawa, S.; Ogawa, Y.; Kataoka, R.; Miyoshi, Y.; Jin, H.; Shinagawa, H.

    2014-07-01

    Simultaneous measurements of the polar ionosphere with the European Incoherent Scatter (EISCAT) ultra high frequency (UHF) radar at Tromsø and the EISCAT Svalbard radar (ESR) at Longyearbyen were made during 07:00-12:00 UT on 12 March 2012. During the period, the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) spacecraft observed changes in the solar wind which were due to the arrival of coronal mass ejection (CME) effects associated with the 10 March M8.4 X-ray event. The solar wind showed two-step variations which caused strong ionospheric heating. First, the arrival of shock structures in the solar wind with enhancements of density and velocity, and a negative interplanetary magnetic field (IMF)-Bz component caused strong ionospheric heating around Longyearbyen; the ion temperature at about 300 km increased from about 1100 to 3400 K over Longyearbyen while that over Tromsø increased from about 1050 to 1200 K. After the passage of the shock structures, the IMF-Bz component showed positive values and the solar wind speed and density also decreased. The second strong ionospheric heating occurred after the IMF-Bz component showed negative values again; the negative values lasted for more than 1.5 h. This solar wind variation caused stronger heating of the ionosphere in the lower latitudes than higher latitudes, suggesting expansion of the auroral oval/heating region to the lower latitude region. This study shows an example of the CME-induced dayside ionospheric heating: a short-duration and very large rise in the ion temperature which was closely related to the polar cap size and polar cap potential variations as a result of interaction between the solar wind and the magnetosphere.

  13. Impact of increasing heat waves on U.S. ozone episodes in the 2050s: Results from a multimodel analysis using extreme value theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shen, L.; Mickley, L. J.; Gilleland, E.

    2016-04-01

    We develop a statistical model using extreme value theory to estimate the 2000-2050 changes in ozone episodes across the United States. We model the relationships between daily maximum temperature (Tmax) and maximum daily 8 h average (MDA8) ozone in May-September over 2003-2012 using a Point Process (PP) model. At ~20% of the sites, a marked decrease in the ozone-temperature slope occurs at high temperatures, defined as ozone suppression. The PP model sometimes fails to capture ozone-Tmax relationships, so we refit the ozone-Tmax slope using logistic regression and a generalized Pareto distribution model. We then apply the resulting hybrid-extreme value theory model to projections of Tmax from an ensemble of downscaled climate models. Assuming constant anthropogenic emissions at the present level, we find an average increase of 2.3 d a-1 in ozone episodes (>75 ppbv) across the United States by the 2050s, with a change of +3-9 d a-1 at many sites.

  14. Perceptions of Workplace Heat Exposure and Controls among Occupational Hygienists and Relevant Specialists in Australia.

    PubMed

    Xiang, Jianjun; Hansen, Alana; Pisaniello, Dino; Bi, Peng

    2015-01-01

    With warmer weather projections, workplace heat exposure is presenting a growing challenge to workers' health and safety. Occupational hygienists are the specialist group conducting measurements and providing advice on heat stress management to industry. In order to provide insights into hygienists perceptions on workplace heat exposure, current and future preparedness for extreme heat, and barriers to possible heat adaptation strategies, a self-administered questionnaire survey was conducted during a national conference of the Australian Institute of Occupational Hygienists. Nearly 90% of the 180 respondents were at least moderately concerned about extreme heat and 19% were dissatisfied with current heat stress prevention measures. Barriers recognized by the participants were lack of awareness (68%), insufficient training (56%), unsatisfactory management commitment (52%), and low compliance with prevention policies (40%). The findings suggest a need to refine occupational heat management and prevention strategies.

  15. Perceptions of Workplace Heat Exposure and Controls among Occupational Hygienists and Relevant Specialists in Australia

    PubMed Central

    Xiang, Jianjun; Hansen, Alana; Pisaniello, Dino; Bi, Peng

    2015-01-01

    With warmer weather projections, workplace heat exposure is presenting a growing challenge to workers’ health and safety. Occupational hygienists are the specialist group conducting measurements and providing advice on heat stress management to industry. In order to provide insights into hygienists perceptions on workplace heat exposure, current and future preparedness for extreme heat, and barriers to possible heat adaptation strategies, a self-administered questionnaire survey was conducted during a national conference of the Australian Institute of Occupational Hygienists. Nearly 90% of the 180 respondents were at least moderately concerned about extreme heat and 19% were dissatisfied with current heat stress prevention measures. Barriers recognized by the participants were lack of awareness (68%), insufficient training (56%), unsatisfactory management commitment (52%), and low compliance with prevention policies (40%). The findings suggest a need to refine occupational heat management and prevention strategies. PMID:26287608

  16. Perceptions of Workplace Heat Exposure and Controls among Occupational Hygienists and Relevant Specialists in Australia.

    PubMed

    Xiang, Jianjun; Hansen, Alana; Pisaniello, Dino; Bi, Peng

    2015-01-01

    With warmer weather projections, workplace heat exposure is presenting a growing challenge to workers' health and safety. Occupational hygienists are the specialist group conducting measurements and providing advice on heat stress management to industry. In order to provide insights into hygienists perceptions on workplace heat exposure, current and future preparedness for extreme heat, and barriers to possible heat adaptation strategies, a self-administered questionnaire survey was conducted during a national conference of the Australian Institute of Occupational Hygienists. Nearly 90% of the 180 respondents were at least moderately concerned about extreme heat and 19% were dissatisfied with current heat stress prevention measures. Barriers recognized by the participants were lack of awareness (68%), insufficient training (56%), unsatisfactory management commitment (52%), and low compliance with prevention policies (40%). The findings suggest a need to refine occupational heat management and prevention strategies. PMID:26287608

  17. Heat-Related Illnesses

    MedlinePlus

    ... that involves extreme heat. Young children and the elderly are most at risk, but anyone can be affected. Here you will find information about heat cramps and heat stroke and exhaustion. Heat Cramps Symptoms include muscle spasms, usually in the legs and stomach area. To ...

  18. Pilot system on extreme climate monitoring and early warning for long range forecast in Korea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cho, K.; Park, B. K.; E-hyung, P.; Gong, Y.; Kim, H. K.; Park, S.; Min, S. K.; Yoo, H. D.

    2015-12-01

    Recently, extreme weather/climate events such as heat waves, flooding/droughts etc. have been increasing in frequency and intensity under climate change over the world. Also, they can have substantial impacts on ecosystem and human society (agriculture, health, and economy) of the affected regions. According to future projections of climate, extreme weather and climate events in Korea are expected to occure more frequently with stronger intensity over the 21st century. For the better long range forecast, it is also fundamentally ruquired to develop a supporting system in terms of extreme weather and climate events including forequency and trend. In this context, the KMA (Korea Meteorological Administration) has recently initiated a development of the extreme climate monintoring and early warning system for long range forecast, which consists of three sub-system components; (1) Real-time climate monitoring system, (2) Ensemble prediction system, and (3) Mechanism analysis and display system for climate extremes. As a first step, a pilot system has been designed focusing on temperature extremes such heat waves and cold snaps using daily, monthly and seasonal observations and model prediction output on the global, regional and national levels. In parallel, the skills of the KMA long range prediction system are being evaluated comprehensively for weather and climate extremes, for which varous case studies are conducted to better understand the observed variations of extrem climates and responsible mechanisms and also to assess predictability of the ensemble prediction system for extremes. Details in the KMA extreme climate monitoring and early warning system will be intorduced and some preliminary results will be discussed for heat/cold waves in Korea.

  19. Artificial Aurora and Irregularity Generation at Low- and Mid-Latitude HF Heating Facilities: Past, Present, and Future

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bernhardt, Paul

    From the 1970's to the present, artificial aurora and field aligned irregularities have been produced at the mid-latitude HF facilities in Platteville, Colorado; Arecibo, Puerto Rico; and SURA, Russia. The artificial optical displays were produced by high power HF radio waves with effective radiated powers in the 80 to 250 Megawatt range. The high power electromagnetic waves excite Langmuir cavitons near the HF wave reflection altitude. Suprathermal electrons are released during the caviton collapse and collisions with atomic oxygen and other neutral atoms produce the artificial aurora. Ground based images of the optical emissions have been used to (1) show artificial and natural irregularities in the E- and F-region, (2) provide remote sensing of neutral winds and plasma drifts, and (3) yield estimates of the composition of the upper atmosphere in the HF interaction region. Currently, the Arecibo HF facility which was destroyed in 1999 by Hurricane Floyd is being reconstituted over the Arecibo dish using crossed-dipoles coupled to a secondary reflector. This new facility should be completed by 2011 for operation near 5 and 8 MHz. In addition, the feasibility of putting a heating facility near the equator is being studied. Numerical simulations using high power electromagnetic waves coupled to the NRL SAMI3 physics based ionosphere model is providing insight to use of these new facilities. Using the Arecibo HF facility, the geomagnetic conjugate region in Argentina should be able to measure artificial aurora as well as both electron density and electron temperature perturbations. A suite of ionospheric sensors comprised of a low-light-level imager, an incoherent scatter radar, and a digital ionosonde would be needed for these observations. An equatorial HF facility would be able to produce symmetric patches of artificial aurora as well as trigger equatorial bubbles by seeding localized density reductions in the plasma.

  20. Linking Excessive Heat with Daily Heat-Related Mortality over the Coterminous United States

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Quattrochi, Dale A.; Crosson, William L.; Al-Hamdan, Mohammad Z.; Estes, Maurice G., Jr.

    2014-01-01

    In the United States, extreme heat is the most deadly weather-related hazard. In the face of a warming climate and urbanization, which contributes to local-scale urban heat islands, it is very likely that extreme heat events (EHEs) will become more common and more severe in the U.S. This research seeks to provide historical and future measures of climate-driven extreme heat events to enable assessments of the impacts of heat on public health over the coterminous U.S. We use atmospheric temperature and humidity information from meteorological reanalysis and from Global Climate Models (GCMs) to provide data on past and future heat events. The focus of research is on providing assessments of the magnitude, frequency and geographic distribution of extreme heat in the U.S. to facilitate public health studies. In our approach, long-term climate change is captured with GCM outputs, and the temporal and spatial characteristics of short-term extremes are represented by the reanalysis data. Two future time horizons for 2040 and 2090 are compared to the recent past period of 1981- 2000. We characterize regional-scale temperature and humidity conditions using GCM outputs for two climate change scenarios (A2 and A1B) defined in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). For each future period, 20 years of multi-model GCM outputs are analyzed to develop a 'heat stress climatology' based on statistics of extreme heat indicators. Differences between the two future and the past period are used to define temperature and humidity changes on a monthly time scale and regional spatial scale. These changes are combined with the historical meteorological data, which is hourly and at a spatial scale (12 km) much finer than that of GCMs, to create future climate realizations. From these realizations, we compute the daily heat stress measures and related spatially-specific climatological fields, such as the mean annual number of days above certain thresholds of maximum and minimum air

  1. Early weaning to reduce tissue mobilization in lactating sows and milk supplementation to enhance pig weaning weight during extreme heat stress.

    PubMed

    Spencer, J D; Boyd, R D; Cabrera, R; Allee, G L

    2003-08-01

    This study was conducted to determine the effect of reduced lactation length and supplemental milk replacer (MR) during high ambient temperatures. Thirty nine primiparous and 100 multiparous sows (PIC, Franklin, KY, C-22) were used in a 2 x 2 x 2 factorial arrangement of treatments. Treatments consisted of two lactation room temperatures (21 degrees C [TN] and 32 degrees C [HOT]), two lactation lengths (14 or 19 d), and two parity groups (primiparous, multiparous). Pigs were either: 1) sow-reared to 19 d or 2) sow-reared to 14 d, and then reared to 19 d with MR after sow removal. All sows were fed the same diet (1.07% lysine, 3,366 kcal of ME/kg). Sows were weighed and ultrasound for backfat thickness (BF) and longissimus muscle area (LMA) within 6 h after farrowing and at the time of sow removal (d 14 or 19). Pigs were individually weighed at weaning (d 19) and after a 47-d nursery period (d 66). Heat stress increased sow weight loss (-13.35 kg, P < 0.01) and decreased sow feed intake (4.63 kg/d, P < 0.01) during lactation compared with sows in TN (+4.5 kg and 7.5 kg/d, respectively). Early weaning (d 14) during heat stress decreased maternal weight loss (-10.1 vs. -16.6 kg, P < 0.01). Primiparous sows lost more BF in both environments (-2.60 vs. -1.56 mm, P < 0.05), and both parity groups lost more BF (-3.35 vs. -2.3 mm, P < 0.10) and LMA (-1.82 vs. -0.77 cm2, P < 0.05) when lactating for 19 d in the HOT environment than those lactating for 14 d. Pigs nursing primiparous and multiparous sows in the HOT environment and provided MR had heavier individual 19-d weights (7.37 and 8.12 kg/ pig, respectively) than those nursing to 19 d (5.57 and 6.04 kg/pig, P < 0.01). Milk replacer decreased the difference normally observed in 19-d weights between primiparous and multiparous sow-reared pigs in TN. Pigs fed MR in both environments and nursing multiparous sows had improved weight gains in the nursery compared with pigs nursing sows to 19 d (428 vs. 406 g/d, respectively

  2. Metagenomics of extreme environments.

    PubMed

    Cowan, D A; Ramond, J-B; Makhalanyane, T P; De Maayer, P

    2015-06-01

    Whether they are exposed to extremes of heat or cold, or buried deep beneath the Earth's surface, microorganisms have an uncanny ability to survive under these conditions. This ability to survive has fascinated scientists for nearly a century, but the recent development of metagenomics and 'omics' tools has allowed us to make huge leaps in understanding the remarkable complexity and versatility of extremophile communities. Here, in the context of the recently developed metagenomic tools, we discuss recent research on the community composition, adaptive strategies and biological functions of extremophiles. PMID:26048196

  3. Metagenomics of extreme environments.

    PubMed

    Cowan, D A; Ramond, J-B; Makhalanyane, T P; De Maayer, P

    2015-06-01

    Whether they are exposed to extremes of heat or cold, or buried deep beneath the Earth's surface, microorganisms have an uncanny ability to survive under these conditions. This ability to survive has fascinated scientists for nearly a century, but the recent development of metagenomics and 'omics' tools has allowed us to make huge leaps in understanding the remarkable complexity and versatility of extremophile communities. Here, in the context of the recently developed metagenomic tools, we discuss recent research on the community composition, adaptive strategies and biological functions of extremophiles.

  4. The Past and Future Trends of Heat Stress Based On Wet Bulb Globe Temperature Index in Outdoor Environment of Tehran City, Iran

    PubMed Central

    HABIBI MOHRAZ, Majid; GHAHRI, Asghar; KARIMI, Mehrdad; GOLBABAEI, Farideh

    2016-01-01

    Background: The workers who are working in the open and warm environments are at risk of health effects of climate and heat changes. It is expected that the risk is increase with global warming. This study aimed to investigate the changes of Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) index in the past and to predict their trend of future changes in Tehran, capital of Iran. Methods: The meteorological data recorded in Tehran, Iran during the statistical period between 1961 and 2009 were obtained from the Iran Meteorological Organization and based on them, WBGT index was calculated and processed using Man-Kendall correlation test. Results: The results of Man-Kendall correlation test showed that the trend of changes of annual mean WBGT during the statistical period under study (1961–2009) has been significantly increasing. In addition, the result of proposed predictive model estimated that an increase of about 1.55 degree in WBGT index will be seen over 40 years from 2009 to 2050 in Tehran. Conclusion: Climate change in Tehran has had an effect on person’s exposure to heat stresses consistent with global warming. PMID:27648423

  5. The Past and Future Trends of Heat Stress Based On Wet Bulb Globe Temperature Index in Outdoor Environment of Tehran City, Iran

    PubMed Central

    HABIBI MOHRAZ, Majid; GHAHRI, Asghar; KARIMI, Mehrdad; GOLBABAEI, Farideh

    2016-01-01

    Background: The workers who are working in the open and warm environments are at risk of health effects of climate and heat changes. It is expected that the risk is increase with global warming. This study aimed to investigate the changes of Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) index in the past and to predict their trend of future changes in Tehran, capital of Iran. Methods: The meteorological data recorded in Tehran, Iran during the statistical period between 1961 and 2009 were obtained from the Iran Meteorological Organization and based on them, WBGT index was calculated and processed using Man-Kendall correlation test. Results: The results of Man-Kendall correlation test showed that the trend of changes of annual mean WBGT during the statistical period under study (1961–2009) has been significantly increasing. In addition, the result of proposed predictive model estimated that an increase of about 1.55 degree in WBGT index will be seen over 40 years from 2009 to 2050 in Tehran. Conclusion: Climate change in Tehran has had an effect on person’s exposure to heat stresses consistent with global warming.

  6. Changes in Extreme Events: from GCM Output to Social, Economic and Ecological Impacts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tebaldi, C.; Meehl, G. A.

    2006-12-01

    Extreme events can deeply affect social and natural systems. The current generation of global climate model is producing information that can be directly used to characterize future changes in extreme events, and through a further step their impacts, despite their still relatively coarse resolution. It is important to define extreme indicators consistently with what we expect GCM to be able to represent reliably. We use two examples from our work, heat waves and frost days, that well describe different aspects of the analysis of extremes from GCM output. Frost days are "mild extremes" and their definition and computation is straightforward. GCMs can represent them accurately and display a strong consistent signal of change. The impacts of these changes will be extremely relevant for ecosystems and agriculture. Heat waves do not have a standard definition. On the basis of historical episodes we isolate characteristics that were responsible for the worst effects on human health, for example, and analyze these characteristics in model simulations, validating the model's historical simulations. The changes in these characteristics can then be easily translated in expected differential impacts on public health. Work in progress goes in the direction of better characterization of "heat waves" taking into account jointly a set of variables like maximum and minimum temperatures and humidity, better addressing the biological vulnerabilities of the populations at risk.

  7. Nonlinear processes reinforce extreme Indian Ocean Dipole events.

    PubMed

    Ng, Benjamin; Cai, Wenju; Walsh, Kevin; Santoso, Agus

    2015-06-26

    Under global warming, climate models show an almost three-fold increase in extreme positive Indian Ocean Dipole (pIOD) events by 2100. These extreme pIODs are characterised by a westward extension of cold sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) which push the downstream atmospheric convergence further west. This induces severe drought and flooding in the surrounding countries, but the processes involved in this projected increase have not been fully examined. Here we conduct a detailed heat budget analysis of 19 models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project and show that nonlinear zonal and vertical heat advection are important for reinforcing extreme pIODs. Under greenhouse warming, these nonlinear processes do not change significantly in amplitude, but the frequency of occurrences surpassing a threshold increases. This is due to the projected weakening of the Walker circulation, which leads to the western tropical Indian Ocean warming faster than the east. As such, the magnitude of SSTAs required to shift convection westward is relatively smaller, allowing these convection shifts to occur more frequently in the future. The associated changes in wind and ocean current anomalies support the zonal and vertical advection terms in a positive feedback process and consequently, moderate pIODs become more extreme-like.

  8. Nonlinear processes reinforce extreme Indian Ocean Dipole events

    PubMed Central

    Ng, Benjamin; Cai, Wenju; Walsh, Kevin; Santoso, Agus

    2015-01-01

    Under global warming, climate models show an almost three-fold increase in extreme positive Indian Ocean Dipole (pIOD) events by 2100. These extreme pIODs are characterised by a westward extension of cold sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) which push the downstream atmospheric convergence further west. This induces severe drought and flooding in the surrounding countries, but the processes involved in this projected increase have not been fully examined. Here we conduct a detailed heat budget analysis of 19 models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project and show that nonlinear zonal and vertical heat advection are important for reinforcing extreme pIODs. Under greenhouse warming, these nonlinear processes do not change significantly in amplitude, but the frequency of occurrences surpassing a threshold increases. This is due to the projected weakening of the Walker circulation, which leads to the western tropical Indian Ocean warming faster than the east. As such, the magnitude of SSTAs required to shift convection westward is relatively smaller, allowing these convection shifts to occur more frequently in the future. The associated changes in wind and ocean current anomalies support the zonal and vertical advection terms in a positive feedback process and consequently, moderate pIODs become more extreme-like. PMID:26114441

  9. Nonlinear processes reinforce extreme Indian Ocean Dipole events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ng, Benjamin; Cai, Wenju; Walsh, Kevin; Santoso, Agus

    2015-06-01

    Under global warming, climate models show an almost three-fold increase in extreme positive Indian Ocean Dipole (pIOD) events by 2100. These extreme pIODs are characterised by a westward extension of cold sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) which push the downstream atmospheric convergence further west. This induces severe drought and flooding in the surrounding countries, but the processes involved in this projected increase have not been fully examined. Here we conduct a detailed heat budget analysis of 19 models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project and show that nonlinear zonal and vertical heat advection are important for reinforcing extreme pIODs. Under greenhouse warming, these nonlinear processes do not change significantly in amplitude, but the frequency of occurrences surpassing a threshold increases. This is due to the projected weakening of the Walker circulation, which leads to the western tropical Indian Ocean warming faster than the east. As such, the magnitude of SSTAs required to shift convection westward is relatively smaller, allowing these convection shifts to occur more frequently in the future. The associated changes in wind and ocean current anomalies support the zonal and vertical advection terms in a positive feedback process and consequently, moderate pIODs become more extreme-like.

  10. Detecting Extreme Events in Gridded Climate Data

    SciTech Connect

    Ramachandra, Bharathkumar; Gadiraju, Krishna; Vatsavai, Raju; Kaiser, Dale Patrick; Karnowski, Thomas Paul

    2016-01-01

    Detecting and tracking extreme events in gridded climatological data is a challenging problem on several fronts: algorithms, scalability, and I/O. Successful detection of these events will give climate scientists an alternate view of the behavior of different climatological variables, leading to enhanced scientific understanding of the impacts of events such as heat and cold waves, and on a larger scale, the El Nin o Southern Oscillation. Recent advances in computing power and research in data sciences enabled us to look at this problem with a different perspective from what was previously possible. In this paper we present our computationally efficient algorithms for anomalous cluster detection on climate change big data. We provide results on detection and tracking of surface temperature and geopotential height anomalies, a trend analysis, and a study of relationships between the variables. We also identify the limitations of our approaches, future directions for research and alternate approaches.

  11. Heat waves and urban heat islands in Europe: A review of relevant drivers.

    PubMed

    Ward, Kathrin; Lauf, Steffen; Kleinschmit, Birgit; Endlicher, Wilfried

    2016-11-01

    The climate change and the proceeding urbanization create future health challenges. Consequently, more people around the globe will be impaired by extreme weather events, such as heat waves. This study investigates the causes for the emergence of surface urban heat islands and its change during heat waves in 70 European cities. A newly created climate class indicator, a set of meaningful landscape metrics, and two population-related parameters were applied to describe the Surface Urban Heat Island Magnitude (SUHIM) - the mean temperature increase within the urban heat island compared to its surrounding, as well as the Heat Magnitude (HM) - the extra heat load added to the average summer SUHIM during heat waves. We evaluated the relevance of varying urban parameters within linear models. The exemplary European-wide heat wave in July 2006 was chosen and compared to the average summer conditions using MODIS land surface temperature with an improved spatial resolution of 250m. The results revealed that the initial size of the urban heat island had significant influence on SUHIM. For the explanation of HM the size of the heat island, the regional climate and the share of central urban green spaces showed to be critical. Interestingly, cities of cooler climates and cities with higher shares of urban green spaces were more affected by additional heat during heat waves. Accordingly, cooler northern European cities seem to be more vulnerable to heat waves, whereas southern European cities appear to be better adapted. Within the ascertained population and climate clusters more detailed explanations were found. Our findings improve the understanding of the urban heat island effect across European cities and its behavior under heat waves. Also, they provide some indications for urban planners on case-specific adaptation strategies to adverse urban heat caused by heat waves.

  12. Heat waves and urban heat islands in Europe: A review of relevant drivers.

    PubMed

    Ward, Kathrin; Lauf, Steffen; Kleinschmit, Birgit; Endlicher, Wilfried

    2016-11-01

    The climate change and the proceeding urbanization create future health challenges. Consequently, more people around the globe will be impaired by extreme weather events, such as heat waves. This study investigates the causes for the emergence of surface urban heat islands and its change during heat waves in 70 European cities. A newly created climate class indicator, a set of meaningful landscape metrics, and two population-related parameters were applied to describe the Surface Urban Heat Island Magnitude (SUHIM) - the mean temperature increase within the urban heat island compared to its surrounding, as well as the Heat Magnitude (HM) - the extra heat load added to the average summer SUHIM during heat waves. We evaluated the relevance of varying urban parameters within linear models. The exemplary European-wide heat wave in July 2006 was chosen and compared to the average summer conditions using MODIS land surface temperature with an improved spatial resolution of 250m. The results revealed that the initial size of the urban heat island had significant influence on SUHIM. For the explanation of HM the size of the heat island, the regional climate and the share of central urban green spaces showed to be critical. Interestingly, cities of cooler climates and cities with higher shares of urban green spaces were more affected by additional heat during heat waves. Accordingly, cooler northern European cities seem to be more vulnerable to heat waves, whereas southern European cities appear to be better adapted. Within the ascertained population and climate clusters more detailed explanations were found. Our findings improve the understanding of the urban heat island effect across European cities and its behavior under heat waves. Also, they provide some indications for urban planners on case-specific adaptation strategies to adverse urban heat caused by heat waves. PMID:27366983

  13. Studies on free stream turbulence as related to gas turbine heat transfer. A review of authors' past work and future implications.

    PubMed

    Yavuzkurt, S; Iyer, G R

    2001-05-01

    A review of the past work done on free stream turbulence (FST) as applied to gas turbine heat transfer and its implications for future studies are presented. It is a comprehensive approach to the results of many individual studies in order to derive the general conclusions that could be inferred from all rather than discussing the results of each individual study. Three experimental and four modeling studies are reviewed. The first study was on prediction of heat transfer for film cooled gas turbine blades. An injection model was devised and used along with a 2-D low Reynolds number k-epsilon model of turbulence for the calculations. Reasonable predictions of heat transfer coefficients were obtained for turbulence intensity levels up to 7%. Following this modeling study a series of experimental studies were undertaken. The objective of these studies was to gain a fundamental understanding of mechanisms through which FST augments the surface heat transfer. Experiments were carried out in the boundary layer and in the free stream downstream of a gas turbine combustor simulator, which produced initial FST levels of 25.7% and large length scales (About 5-10 cm for a boundary layer 4-5 cm thick). This result showed that one possible mechanism through which FST caused an increase in heat transfer is by increasing the number of ejection events. In a number of modeling studies several well-known k-epsilon models were compared for their predictive capability of heat transfer and skin friction coefficients under moderate and high FST. Two data sets, one with moderate levels of FST (about 7%) and one with high levels of FST (about 25%) were used for this purpose. Although the models did fine in their predictions of cases with no FST (baseline cases) they failed one by one as FST levels were increased. Under high FST (25.7% initial intensity) predictions of Stanton number were between 35-100% in error compared to the measured values. Later a new additional production term

  14. Studies on free stream turbulence as related to gas turbine heat transfer. A review of authors' past work and future implications.

    PubMed

    Yavuzkurt, S; Iyer, G R

    2001-05-01

    A review of the past work done on free stream turbulence (FST) as applied to gas turbine heat transfer and its implications for future studies are presented. It is a comprehensive approach to the results of many individual studies in order to derive the general conclusions that could be inferred from all rather than discussing the results of each individual study. Three experimental and four modeling studies are reviewed. The first study was on prediction of heat transfer for film cooled gas turbine blades. An injection model was devised and used along with a 2-D low Reynolds number k-epsilon model of turbulence for the calculations. Reasonable predictions of heat transfer coefficients were obtained for turbulence intensity levels up to 7%. Following this modeling study a series of experimental studies were undertaken. The objective of these studies was to gain a fundamental understanding of mechanisms through which FST augments the surface heat transfer. Experiments were carried out in the boundary layer and in the free stream downstream of a gas turbine combustor simulator, which produced initial FST levels of 25.7% and large length scales (About 5-10 cm for a boundary layer 4-5 cm thick). This result showed that one possible mechanism through which FST caused an increase in heat transfer is by increasing the number of ejection events. In a number of modeling studies several well-known k-epsilon models were compared for their predictive capability of heat transfer and skin friction coefficients under moderate and high FST. Two data sets, one with moderate levels of FST (about 7%) and one with high levels of FST (about 25%) were used for this purpose. Although the models did fine in their predictions of cases with no FST (baseline cases) they failed one by one as FST levels were increased. Under high FST (25.7% initial intensity) predictions of Stanton number were between 35-100% in error compared to the measured values. Later a new additional production term

  15. Northern Eurasian Heat Waves and Droughts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schubert, Siegfried; Wang, Hailan; Koster, Randal; Suarez, Max; Groisman, Pavel

    2013-01-01

    This article reviews our understanding of the characteristics and causes of northern Eurasian summertime heat waves and droughts. Additional insights into the nature of temperature and precipitation variability in Eurasia on monthly to decadal time scales and into the causes and predictability of the most extreme events are gained from the latest generation of reanalyses and from supplemental simulations with the NASA GEOS-5 AGCM. Key new results are: 1) the identification of the important role of summertime stationary Rossby waves in the development of the leading patterns of monthly Eurasian surface temperature and precipitation variability (including the development of extreme events such as the 2010 Russian heat wave), 2) an assessment of the mean temperature and precipitation changes that have occurred over northern Eurasia in the last three decades and their connections to decadal variability and global trends in SST, and 3) the quantification (via a case study) of the predictability of the most extreme simulated heat wave/drought events, with some focus on the role of soil moisture in the development and maintenance of such events. A literature survey indicates a general consensus that the future holds an enhanced probability of heat waves across northern Eurasia, while there is less agreement regarding future drought, reflecting a greater uncertainty in soil moisture and precipitation projections. Substantial uncertainties remain in our understanding of heat waves and drought, including the nature of the interactions between the short-term atmospheric variability associated with such extremes and the longer-term variability and trends associated with soil moisture feedbacks, SST anomalies, and an overall warming world.

  16. Patterned Growth in Extreme Environments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Curnutt, J.; Gomez, E.; Schubert, K. E.

    2009-12-01

    In this paper, cellular automata are used to model patterned growth of organisms in extreme environments. A brief introduction to cellular automaton modeling is given to assist the reader. Patterned growth of soil surface cyanobacteria and biovermiculation microbial mats in sulfuric acid caves are modeled and simulations conducted. Simulations are compared with actual systems, and future directions are discussed.

  17. Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ) about Extreme Heat

    MedlinePlus

    ... the environment. How much should I drink during hot weather? During hot weather you will need to ... urine output. Should I take salt tablets during hot weather? Do not take salt tablets unless directed ...

  18. [The acclimatization to extreme environments and its physiological mechanisms].

    PubMed

    Wang, Hai; Liu, Wei; Yang, Dan-Feng; Zhao, Xiao-Ling; Long, Chao-Liang; Yin, Zhao-Yun; Liu, Jia-Ying

    2012-11-01

    Acclimatization is a process of biological adaptation when exposed to environmental factors such as hypoxia, cold and heat for prolonged periods of time, where non-genetical variations play a role in allowing subjects to tolerate hypoxic, cold or hot environments. This review focuses on the characteristics and mechanisms of acclimatization found through major research advances by our institute. First, the mechanisms underlying the acclimatization to extreme environments are complex. In our investigations, the physiological changes of multiple systems including the nervous, circulatory, respiratory, and hemopoietic system were demonstrated when the acclimatization to hypoxia was developed, and the underlying significance of hypoxia-inducible factor-1 (HIF-1) was investigated. Second, it is suggested that the development of acclimatization to extreme environments is complicated. Hypoxia and cold coexist at high altitude. Our investigations revealed the characteristics of negative cross-relationship in the acclimatization to hypoxia and cold. And third, it is interesting for us to understand that acclimatization to extreme environments is transferable among individuals, and the characteristics of heat acclimatization-inducing factor (HAlF) were presented. The above findings will provide a theoretical guidance for protective operations and help to establish a solid foundation for future research related to acclimatization.

  19. Temperature Extremes, Health, and Human Capital

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zivin, Joshua Graff; Shrader, Jeffrey

    2016-01-01

    The extreme temperatures expected under climate change may be especially harmful to children. Children are more vulnerable to heat partly because of their physiological features, but, perhaps more important, because they behave and respond differently than adults do. Children are less likely to manage their own heat risk and may have fewer ways to…

  20. North American extreme temperature events and related large scale meteorological patterns: A review of statistical methods, dynamics, modeling, and trends

    SciTech Connect

    Grotjahn, Richard; Black, Robert; Leung, Ruby; Wehner, Michael F.; Barlow, Mathew; Bosilovich, Michael; Gershunov, Alexander; Gutowski, Jr., William J.; Gyakum, John R.; Katz, Richard W.; Lee, Yun -Young; Lim, Young -Kwon; Prabhat, -

    2015-05-22

    This paper reviews research approaches and open questions regarding data, statistical analyses, dynamics, modeling efforts, and trends in relation to temperature extremes. Our specific focus is upon extreme events of short duration (roughly less than 5 days) that affect parts of North America. These events are associated with large scale meteorological patterns (LSMPs). Methods used to define extreme events statistics and to identify and connect LSMPs to extreme temperatures are presented. Recent advances in statistical techniques can connect LSMPs to extreme temperatures through appropriately defined covariates that supplements more straightforward analyses. A wide array of LSMPs, ranging from synoptic to planetary scale phenomena, have been implicated as contributors to extreme temperature events. Current knowledge about the physical nature of these contributions and the dynamical mechanisms leading to the implicated LSMPs is incomplete. There is a pressing need for (a) systematic study of the physics of LSMPs life cycles and (b) comprehensive model assessment of LSMP-extreme temperature event linkages and LSMP behavior. Generally, climate models capture the observed heat waves and cold air outbreaks with some fidelity. However they overestimate warm wave frequency and underestimate cold air outbreaks frequency, and underestimate the collective influence of low-frequency modes on temperature extremes. Climate models have been used to investigate past changes and project future trends in extreme temperatures. Overall, modeling studies have identified important mechanisms such as the effects of large-scale circulation anomalies and land-atmosphere interactions on changes in extreme temperatures. However, few studies have examined changes in LSMPs more specifically to understand the role of LSMPs on past and future extreme temperature changes. Even though LSMPs are resolvable by global and regional climate models, they are not necessarily well simulated so more

  1. North American extreme temperature events and related large scale meteorological patterns: A review of statistical methods, dynamics, modeling, and trends

    DOE PAGES

    Grotjahn, Richard; Black, Robert; Leung, Ruby; Wehner, Michael F.; Barlow, Mathew; Bosilovich, Michael; Gershunov, Alexander; Gutowski, Jr., William J.; Gyakum, John R.; Katz, Richard W.; et al

    2015-05-22

    This paper reviews research approaches and open questions regarding data, statistical analyses, dynamics, modeling efforts, and trends in relation to temperature extremes. Our specific focus is upon extreme events of short duration (roughly less than 5 days) that affect parts of North America. These events are associated with large scale meteorological patterns (LSMPs). Methods used to define extreme events statistics and to identify and connect LSMPs to extreme temperatures are presented. Recent advances in statistical techniques can connect LSMPs to extreme temperatures through appropriately defined covariates that supplements more straightforward analyses. A wide array of LSMPs, ranging from synoptic tomore » planetary scale phenomena, have been implicated as contributors to extreme temperature events. Current knowledge about the physical nature of these contributions and the dynamical mechanisms leading to the implicated LSMPs is incomplete. There is a pressing need for (a) systematic study of the physics of LSMPs life cycles and (b) comprehensive model assessment of LSMP-extreme temperature event linkages and LSMP behavior. Generally, climate models capture the observed heat waves and cold air outbreaks with some fidelity. However they overestimate warm wave frequency and underestimate cold air outbreaks frequency, and underestimate the collective influence of low-frequency modes on temperature extremes. Climate models have been used to investigate past changes and project future trends in extreme temperatures. Overall, modeling studies have identified important mechanisms such as the effects of large-scale circulation anomalies and land-atmosphere interactions on changes in extreme temperatures. However, few studies have examined changes in LSMPs more specifically to understand the role of LSMPs on past and future extreme temperature changes. Even though LSMPs are resolvable by global and regional climate models, they are not necessarily well simulated so

  2. Heat waves, aging, and human cardiovascular health.

    PubMed

    Kenney, W Larry; Craighead, Daniel H; Alexander, Lacy M

    2014-10-01

    This brief review is based on a President's Lecture presented at the Annual Meeting of the American College of Sports Medicine in 2013. The purpose of this review was to assess the effects of climate change and consequent increases in environmental heat stress on the aging cardiovascular system. The earth's average global temperature is slowly but consistently increasing, and along with mean temperature changes come increases in heat wave frequency and severity. Extreme passive thermal stress resulting from prolonged elevations in ambient temperature and prolonged physical activity in hot environments creates a high demand on the left ventricle to pump blood to the skin to dissipate heat. Even healthy aging is accompanied by altered cardiovascular function, which limits the extent to which older individuals can maintain stroke volume, increase cardiac output, and increase skin blood flow when exposed to environmental extremes. In the elderly, the increased cardiovascular demand during heat waves is often fatal because of increased strain on an already compromised left ventricle. Not surprisingly, excess deaths during heat waves 1) occur predominantly in older individuals and 2) are overwhelmingly cardiovascular in origin. Increasing frequency and severity of heat waves coupled with a rapidly growing at-risk population dramatically increase the extent of future untoward health outcomes.

  3. HEAT WAVES, AGING, AND HUMAN CARDIOVASCULAR HEALTH

    PubMed Central

    Kenney, W. Larry; Craighead, Daniel H.; Alexander, Lacy M.

    2014-01-01

    This brief review is based on a President’s Lecture presented at the Annual Meeting of the American College of Sports Medicine in 2013. The purpose of this review is to assess the effects of climate change and consequent increases in environmental heat stress on the aging cardiovascular system. The earth’s average global temperature is slowly but consistently increasing, and along with mean temperature changes come increases in heat wave frequency and severity. Extreme passive thermal stress resulting from prolonged elevations in ambient temperature, as well as prolonged physical activity in hot environments, creates a high demand on the left ventricle to pump blood to the skin to dissipate heat. Even healthy aging is accompanied by altered cardiovascular function, which limits the extent to which older individuals can maintain stroke volume, increase cardiac output, and increase skin blood flow when exposed to environmental extremes. In the elderly, the increased cardiovascular demand during heat waves is often fatal due to increased strain on an already compromised left ventricle. Not surprisingly, excess deaths during heat waves 1) occur predominantly in older individuals and 2) are overwhelmingly cardiovascular in origin. Increasing frequency and severity of heat waves coupled with a rapidly growing at-risk population dramatically increases the extent of future untoward health outcomes. PMID:24598696

  4. A Global Analysis of the Link between Soil Moisture Dynamics and Warm Extremes.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Casagrande, E.; Kondapalli, N. K.; Mueller, B.; Miralles, D. G.; Molini, A.

    2014-12-01

    Under future climatic scenarios long-lasting warm extremes, such as heat waves, are expected to become more intense, persistent and frequent for both temperate and arid regions, resulting in diverse but nonetheless significant impacts for the human health, sustainable development and economy of these regions. As the underlying processes responsible for triggering and sustaining warm extremes are extremely variegate and yet not well understood, the occurrence of extreme events such heat waves and prolonged droughts results exceedingly difficult to predict and model. Major uncertainties arise from the fact that warm extremes mainly derive from the interplay of large-scale atmospheric processes and local feedbacks operating across very different spatial and temporal scales, and are characterized by several thresholds, limiting factors and non-linearities determining their deviation from the "classical" extreme-value theory.In this study we explore - from a global point of view - the role of local and synoptic dynamical components in initiating warm extremes and in determining their spatial and temporal clustering. Previous studies have already highlighted the role of large negative soil moisture anomalies in causing and sustaining long periods of dry and hot weather. For this reason we propose here a novel approach to the characterization of warm extremes, based on the conditioning of traditional air temperature quintile statistics to antecedent soil moisture conditions. Case studies from different climatic regimes are shown in order to prove the major and varied role of antecedent soil moisture conditions across the different regions of the world. In addition, we also investigate the connection between regional climate features and large-scale dynamics during warm extremes by the joint usage of classical diagnostic analysis and novel statistics for the detection of cross-scale interactions.

  5. Hydrological extremes and their agricultural impacts under a changing climate in Texas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, K.; Gao, H.; Huang, M.; Sheffield, J.

    2015-12-01

    With the changing climate, hydrologic extremes (such as floods, droughts, and heat waves) are becoming more frequent and intensified. Such changes in extreme events are expected to affect agricultural production and food supplies. This study focuses on the State of Texas, which has the largest farm area and the highest value of livestock production in the U.S. The objectives are two-fold: First, to investigate the climatic impact on the occurrence of future hydrologic extreme events; and second, to evaluate the effects of the future extremes on agricultural production. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, which is calibrated and validated over Texas river basins during the historical period, is employed for this study. The VIC model is forced by the statistically downscaled climate projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) model ensembles at a spatial resolution of 1/8°. The CMIP5 projections contain four different scenarios in terms of Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) (i.e. 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5 w/m2). To carry out the analysis, VIC outputs forced by the CMIP5 model scenarios over three 30-year periods (1970-1999, 2020-2049 and 2070-2099) are first evaluated to identify how the frequency and the extent of the extreme events will be altered in the ten Texas major river basins. The results suggest that a significant increase in the number of extreme events will occur starting in the first half of the 21st century in Texas. Then, the effects of the predicted hydrologic extreme events on the irrigation water demand are investigated. It is found that future changes in water demand vary by crop type and location, with an east-to-west gradient. The results are expected to contribute to future water management and planning in Texas.

  6. Reporting Outcomes of Extremely Preterm Births.

    PubMed

    Rysavy, Matthew A; Marlow, Neil; Doyle, Lex W; Tyson, Jon E; Serenius, Frederik; Iams, Jay D; Stoll, Barbara J; Barrington, Keith J; Bell, Edward F

    2016-09-01

    Published reports of extremely preterm birth outcomes provide important information to families, clinicians, and others and are widely used to make clinical and policy decisions. Misreporting or misunderstanding of outcome reports may have significant consequences. This article presents 7 recommendations to improve reporting of extremely preterm birth outcomes in both the primary and secondary literature. The recommendations should facilitate clarity in communication about extremely preterm birth outcomes and increase the value of existing and future work in this area. PMID:27516525

  7. Extreme Events and Energy Providers: Science and Innovation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yiou, P.; Vautard, R.

    2012-04-01

    Most socio-economic regulations related to the resilience to climate extremes, from infrastructure or network design to insurance premiums, are based on a present-day climate with an assumption of stationarity. Climate extremes (heat waves, cold spells, droughts, storms and wind stilling) affect in particular energy production, supply, demand and security in several ways. While national, European or international projects have generated vast amounts of climate projections for the 21st century, their practical use in long-term planning remains limited. Estimating probabilistic diagnostics of energy user relevant variables from those multi-model projections will help the energy sector to elaborate medium to long-term plans, and will allow the assessment of climate risks associated to those plans. The project "Extreme Events for Energy Providers" (E3P) aims at filling a gap between climate science and its practical use in the energy sector and creating in turn favourable conditions for new business opportunities. The value chain ranges from addressing research questions directly related to energy-significant climate extremes to providing innovative tools of information and decision making (including methodologies, best practices and software) and climate science training for the energy sector, with a focus on extreme events. Those tools will integrate the scientific knowledge that is developed by scientific communities, and translate it into a usable probabilistic framework. The project will deliver projection tools assessing the probabilities of future energy-relevant climate extremes at a range of spatial scales varying from pan-European to local scales. The E3P project is funded by the Knowledge and Innovation Community (KIC Climate). We will present the mechanisms of interactions between academic partners, SMEs and industrial partners for this project. Those mechanisms are elementary bricks of a climate service.

  8. Projections of heat waves with high impact on human health in Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Amengual, A.; Homar, V.; Romero, R.; Brooks, H. E.; Ramis, C.; Gordaliza, M.; Alonso, S.

    2014-08-01

    Climate change will result in more intense, more frequent and longer lasting heat waves. The most hazardous conditions emerge when extreme daytime temperatures combine with warm night-time temperatures, high humidities and light winds for several consecutive days. Here, we assess present and future heat wave impacts on human health in Europe. Present daily physiologically equivalent temperatures (PET) are derived from the ERA-Interim reanalysis. PET allows to specifically focus on heat-related risks on humans. Regarding projections, a suite of high-resolution regional climate models - run under SRES A1B scenario - has been used. A quantile-quantile adjustment is applied to the daily simulated PET to correct biases in individual model climatologies and a multimodel ensemble strategy is adopted to encompass model errors. Two types of heat waves differently impacting human health - strong and extreme stress - are defined according to specified thresholds of thermal stress and duration. Heat wave number, frequency, duration and amplitude are derived for each type. Results reveal relatively strong correlations between the spatial distribution of strong and extreme heat wave amplitudes and mortality excess for the 2003 European summer. Projections suggest a steady increase and a northward extent of heat wave attributes in Europe. Strong stress heat wave frequencies could increase more than 40 days, lasting over 20 days more by 2075-2094. Amplitudes might augment up to 7 °C per heat wave day. Important increases in extreme stress heat wave attributes are also expected: up to 40 days in frequency, 30 days in duration and 4 °C in amplitude. We believe that with this information at hand policy makers and stakeholders on vulnerable populations to heat stress can respond more effectively to the future challenges imposed by climate warming.

  9. Changes in weather and climate extremes: state of knowledge relevant to air and water quality in the United States.

    PubMed

    Peterson, Thomas C; Karl, Thomas R; Kossin, James P; Kunkel, Kenneth E; Lawrimore, Jay H; McMahon, James R; Vose, Russell S; Yin, Xungang

    2014-02-01

    Air and water quality are impacted by extreme weather and climate events on time scales ranging from minutes to many months. This review paper discusses the state of knowledge of how and why extreme events are changing and are projected to change in the future. These events include heat waves, cold waves, floods, droughts, hurricanes, strong extratropical cyclones such as nor'easters, heavy rain, and major snowfalls. Some of these events, such as heat waves, are projected to increase, while others, with cold waves being a good example, will decrease in intensity in our warming world. Each extreme's impact on air or water quality can be complex and can even vary over the course of the event.

  10. The urban heat island and its impact on heat waves and human health in Shanghai.

    PubMed

    Tan, Jianguo; Zheng, Youfei; Tang, Xu; Guo, Changyi; Li, Liping; Song, Guixiang; Zhen, Xinrong; Yuan, Dong; Kalkstein, Adam J; Li, Furong

    2010-01-01

    With global warming forecast to continue into the foreseeable future, heat waves are very likely to increase in both frequency and intensity. In urban regions, these future heat waves will be exacerbated by the urban heat island effect, and will have the potential to negatively influence the health and welfare of urban residents. In order to investigate the health effects of the urban heat island (UHI) in Shanghai, China, 30 years of meteorological records (1975-2004) were examined for 11 first- and second-order weather stations in and around Shanghai. Additionally, automatic weather observation data recorded in recent years as well as daily all-cause summer mortality counts in 11 urban, suburban, and exurban regions (1998-2004) in Shanghai have been used. The results show that different sites (city center or surroundings) have experienced different degrees of warming as a result of increasing urbanization. In turn, this has resulted in a more extensive urban heat island effect, causing additional hot days and heat waves in urban regions compared to rural locales. An examination of summer mortality rates in and around Shanghai yields heightened heat-related mortality in urban regions, and we conclude that the UHI is directly responsible, acting to worsen the adverse health effects from exposure to extreme thermal conditions.

  11. Extreme, expedition, and wilderness medicine.

    PubMed

    Imray, Christopher H E; Grocott, Michael P W; Wilson, Mark H; Hughes, Amy; Auerbach, Paul S

    2015-12-19

    Extreme, expedition, and wilderness medicine are modern and rapidly evolving specialties that address the spirit of adventure and exploration. The relevance of and interest in these specialties are changing rapidly to match the underlying activities, which include global exploration, adventure travel, and military deployments. Extreme, expedition, and wilderness medicine share themes of providing best available medical care in the outdoors, especially in austere or remote settings. Early clinical and logistics decision making can often have important effects on subsequent outcomes. There are lessons to be learned from out-of-hospital care, military medicine, humanitarian medicine, and disaster medicine that can inform in-hospital medicine, and vice-versa. The future of extreme, expedition, and wilderness medicine will be defined by both recipients and practitioners, and empirical observations will be transformed by evidence-based practice.

  12. Extreme, expedition, and wilderness medicine.

    PubMed

    Imray, Christopher H E; Grocott, Michael P W; Wilson, Mark H; Hughes, Amy; Auerbach, Paul S

    2015-12-19

    Extreme, expedition, and wilderness medicine are modern and rapidly evolving specialties that address the spirit of adventure and exploration. The relevance of and interest in these specialties are changing rapidly to match the underlying activities, which include global exploration, adventure travel, and military deployments. Extreme, expedition, and wilderness medicine share themes of providing best available medical care in the outdoors, especially in austere or remote settings. Early clinical and logistics decision making can often have important effects on subsequent outcomes. There are lessons to be learned from out-of-hospital care, military medicine, humanitarian medicine, and disaster medicine that can inform in-hospital medicine, and vice-versa. The future of extreme, expedition, and wilderness medicine will be defined by both recipients and practitioners, and empirical observations will be transformed by evidence-based practice. PMID:26738718

  13. Mapping the Decadal Spatio-temporal Variation of Social Vulnerability to Hydro-climatic Extremes over India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    H, V.; Karmakar, S.; Ghosh, S.

    2015-12-01

    Human induced global warming is unequivocal and observational studies shows that, this has led to increase in the intensity and frequency of hydro-climatic extremes, most importantly precipitation extreme, heat waves and drought; and also is expected to be increased in the future. The occurrence of these extremes have a devastating effects on nation's economy and on societal well-being. Previous studies on India provided the evidences of significant changes in the precipitation extreme from pre- to post-1950, with huge spatial heterogeneity; and projections of heat waves indicated that significant part of India will experience heat stress conditions in the future. Under these circumstance, it is necessary to develop a nation-wide social vulnerability map to scrutinize the adequacy of existing emergency management. Yet there has been no systematic past efforts on mapping social vulnerability to hydro-climatic extremes at nation-wide for India. Therefore, immediate efforts are required to quantify the social vulnerability, particularly developing country like India, where major transformations in demographic characteristics and development patterns are evident during past decades. In the present study, we perform a comprehensive spatio-temporal social vulnerability analysis by considering multiple sensitive indicators for three decades (1990-2010) which identifies the hot-spots, with higher vulnerability to hydro-climatic extremes. The population datasets are procured from Census of India and the meteorological datasets are obtained from India Meteorological Department (IMD). The study derives interesting results on decadal changes of spatial distribution of risk, considering social vulnerability and hazard to extremes.

  14. Linking Extreme Weather Events and Extreme ENSO States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Perlwitz, J.; Hoerling, M. P.; Xu, T.; Hoell, A.; Cheng, L.; Wolter, K.

    2015-12-01

    To what extent are the risks of extreme weather events over the contiguous US, such as heavy precipitation, heat and cold waves, conditioned by the state of tropical east Pacific SSTs? Further, do extreme magnitudes of El Niño and La Niña events exert a unique and particularly strong controlling effect on weather extremes? Here, we utilize both observations and multi-model large ensemble historical simulations to characterize the behavior of 5-day maximum precipitation distributions. We focus on relations between ENSO impacts on seasonal means and weather extremes, and explore the distinction between effects based on ENSO phase and intensity. For the cold season (November to April), overall ENSO impacts on mean precipitation are shown to be consistent with observations. This signal includes enhanced seasonal mean precipitation over the southern part of the U.S. and central Great Plains during El Niño, and enhanced seasonal mean precipitation over the Midwest during La Nina. We further demonstrate how these signals change under the influence of the most extreme ENSO events, conditions that are difficult to verify from observations owing to small sample sizes, but are modeled via large ensemble methods. The statistics of 5-day maximum precipitation, with a focus on 20-year return levels that characterizes rare but potentially damaging events, are examined. We demonstrate substantial differences in changes in the risk of extreme 5-day precipitation and the seasonal mean precipitation signal, especially in such regions as California, and the western Great Plains including the Front Range of the Rockies from Montana to New Mexico. The plausibility of such behavior is discussed via physical considerations and by examining the structural uncertainty in such outcomes across three different climate models.

  15. Assessing HadCM3 simulations from NCEP reanalyses over Europe: diagnostics of block-seasonal extreme temperature's regimes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lucio, P. S.

    2004-12-01

    The debate on the enhanced greenhouse effect continues, confusing the climate change impact analysis and the decision makers. Hence, this paper is addressed to the extreme regional-scale evaluation of global climate model (GCM). Given that assessment of models is crucial to consider future scenarios in climate change impact analyses, the exploratory work is essential, as it identifies the strengths and weaknesses of GCM to regional-scale differences in model performance, providing insights on regional-scale climate interactions and processes. That is why this manuscript attempts to compare the spatial pattern of a longer temporal aggregation period (1960/61-1989/90) for extreme temperatures simulated by a particular GCM (HadCM3) to that of NCEP Reanalyses, which are considered as "truth". Climatic risk analyses and forecasting, concern among other topics, assess an interpretation in intensity and frequency of recurrence of long duration extreme values (heat/cold waves). One study assesses the impact of extreme events analysing the temporal dependence of extreme events. The present study leads to the conclusion that the HadCM3 Simulations do not reproduce reasonably the NCEP Reanalyses over the Modelling the Impact of Climate Extremes (MICE—EU Project) domain, even despite the fact that the climatology of extremes has demonstrated very similar spatial patterns. Consequently, all diagnostics of extremes led support to the fitted Generalised Extreme Value (GEV) model for extrapolation, suggesting that the HadCM3 is not adequate for forecasting, simulating future scenarios of extremes based on the analysis of risk or probability maps for spatial uncertainties. The greatest difference between the two models is in terms of the precision of estimation.

  16. Flexible diaphragm-extreme temperature usage

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lerma, Guillermo (Inventor)

    1991-01-01

    A diaphragm suitable for extreme temperature usage, such as encountered in critical aerospace applications, is fabricated by a unique method, and of a unique combination of materials. The materials include multilayered lay-ups of diaphragm materials sandwiched between layers of bleeder fabrics. After being formed in the desired shape on a mold, they are vacuum sealed and then cured under pressure, in a heated autoclave. A bond capable of withstanding extreme temperatures are produced.

  17. Shear Fractures of Extreme Dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tarasov, Boris

    2016-10-01

    Natural and laboratory observations show that shear ruptures (faults) can propagate with extreme dynamics (up to intersonic rupture velocities) through intact materials and along pre-existing faults with frictional and coherent (bonded) interfaces. The rupture propagation is accompanied by significant fault strength weakening in the rupture head. Although essential for understanding earthquakes, rock mechanics, tribology and fractures, the question of what physical processes determine how that weakening occurs is still unresolved. The general approach today to explain the fault weakening is based upon the strong velocity-weakening friction law according to which the fault strength drops rapidly with slip velocity. Different mechanisms of strength weakening caused by slip velocity have been proposed including thermal effect, high-frequency compressional waves, expansion of pore fluid, macroscopic melting and gel formation. This paper proposes that shear ruptures of extreme dynamics propagating in intact materials and in pre-existing frictional and coherent interfaces are governed by the same recently identified mechanism which is associated with an intensive microcracking process in the rupture tip observed for all types of extreme ruptures. The microcracking process creates, in certain conditions, a special fan-like microstructure shear resistance of which is extremely low (up to an order of magnitude less than the frictional strength). The fan-structure representing the rupture head provides strong interface weakening and causes high slip and rupture velocities. In contrast with the velocity-weakening dependency, this mechanism provides the opposite weakening-velocity effect. The fan-mechanism differs remarkably from all reported earlier mechanisms, and it can provide such important features observed in extreme ruptures as: extreme slip and rupture velocities, high slip velocity without heating, off-fault tensile cracking, transition from crack-like to pulse

  18. Creating Extreme Material Properties with High-Energy Laser Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meyerhofer, David

    2005-07-01

    Laboratory for Laser Energetics, University of Rochester, 250 E. River Rd, Rochester, NY 14623 High-energy laser systems create extreme states of matter by coupling their energy into a target via ablation of the outer layers. In planar experiments on the OMEGA laser system, single-shock pressures can exceed 10 Mbar. In spherical geometry, the compressed target pressures can be significantly higher than 1 Gbar. These pressures will be increased by one or two orders of magnitude on the 1.8-MJUV National Ignition Facility, under construction at LLNL. The inherent flexibility of multibeam laser systems allows many techniques to be applied to studying the properties of materials under extreme conditions. Recent experiments have used Extended X-ray Absorption Fine Structure to observe shock-induced phase transformations in Fe on the ns time scale. Techniques are being used and/or developed to measure the equation of state of compressed materials, including solids, foams, and liquid D2, both on and off the Hugoniot. The coupling of high-energy petawatt (HEPW) lasers to high-energy laser systems will greatly extend the accessible range of material conditions. HEPW lasers produce extremely intense beams of electrons and protons that can be coupled with high-energy compression to access a large region of temperature and density space, for example, by heating a compressed target. These beams, along with the extremely bright x-ray emission, provide new diagnostic opportunities. This presentation will highlight some of the recent advances and future opportunities in creating and measuring extreme materials properties. This work was supported by the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Inertial Confinement Fusion under Cooperative Agreement No. DE-FC52-92SF19460, the University of Rochester, and the NY State Energy Research and Development Authority. The support of DOE does not constitute an endorsement by DOE of the views expressed in this article.

  19. Workshop on Extreme Physics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mundell, Carole; Sullivan, Mark

    2012-04-01

    abstract-type="normal">SummaryNever before has there been such a wealth of versatile ground- and space-based facilities with which to detect variable emission across the electromagnetic spectrum and beyond, to non-EM signals such as neutrinos and gravitational waves, to probe the most extreme phenomena in the Universe. The variable sky is already providing a wealth of new and surprising observations of phenomena such as GRBs, SNe and AGN that are pushing current theories beyond the state of the art. Multi-messenger follow-up will soon become de rigeur, and upcoming radio and optical all-sky transient surveys will revolutionise the study of the transient Universe. In addition to the technical and data challenges presented by such surveys, a major new challenge will be the interpretation of the wealth of available data and the identification of the underlying physics of new classes of variable (and potentially exotic) objects. Theoretical predictions will be vital for interpreting these future transient discoveries. The goal of this workshop was to bring together theorists and observers in order to identify unexplored synergies across three main research areas of extreme physics: gamma-ray bursts, supernovæ and, more generically, relativistic jets. It aimed to discuss key outstanding questions in these rapidly moving fields, such as the composition and acceleration of GRB and AGN jets, GRB progenitors and central engines, the origin of the wide range of observed variability time-scales in GRB prompt and after-glow light curves and related cosmological applications, the physics of the newly-discovered ultra-luminous SN-like optical transients-as well as to speculate on what we might hope to discover with future technology. The workshop absorbed two 90-minute sessions, selecting 3 main science topics (Relativistic Jets, GRBs and SNe) which it organised as structured discussions driven by a series of short but provocative questions. The final session featured a panel

  20. The impact of climate extremes on US agricultural production and the buffering impacts of irrigation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Troy, Tara J.; Kipgen, Chinpihoi; Pal, Indrani

    2014-05-01

    In recent years, droughts and floods have occurred over many of the major growing regions of the world, resulting in decreased agricultural production and increased global food prices. Many climate projections call for more frequent extreme events, which could have significant impacts on agricultural yields and water resources in irrigated agricultural regions. In order to better understand the potential impact of climate extremes and the spatial heterogeneity of those impacts, we examine the associations between climate and irrigated and rain fed crop yields, focusing on four main staple crops: wheat, rice, soy, and maize. Because the United States has high spatial resolution data for both yields and weather variables, the analysis focuses on the impact of multiple extremes over these four crops in the US using statistical methods that do not require any assumptions of functional relationships between yields and weather variables. Irrigated and rain fed agricultural yields are analyzed separately to understand the role irrigation plays either as a buffering against climate variability and extremes such as drought, heat waves, and extended dry spells or a mechanism that leads to varied relationships between extremes of climate and yield fluctuations. These results demonstrate that irrigation has varying effects depending on the region, growing season timing, crop type, and type of climate extreme. This work has important implications for future planning of the coupled water-food system and its vulnerabilities to climate.

  1. Amplified mid-latitude planetary waves favour particular regional weather extremes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Screen, James A.; Simmonds, Ian

    2014-08-01

    There has been an ostensibly large number of extreme weather events in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes during the past decade. An open question that is critically important for scientists and policy makers is whether any such increase in weather extremes is natural or anthropogenic in origin. One mechanism proposed to explain the increased frequency of extreme weather events is the amplification of mid-latitude atmospheric planetary waves. Disproportionately large warming in the northern polar regions compared with mid-latitudes--and associated weakening of the north-south temperature gradient--may favour larger amplitude planetary waves, although observational evidence for this remains inconclusive. A better understanding of the role of planetary waves in causing mid-latitude weather extremes is essential for assessing the potential environmental and socio-economic impacts of future planetary wave changes. Here we show that months of extreme weather over mid-latitudes are commonly accompanied by significantly amplified quasi-stationary mid-tropospheric planetary waves. Conversely, months of near-average weather over mid-latitudes are often accompanied by significantly attenuated waves. Depending on geographical region, certain types of extreme weather (for example, hot, cold, wet, dry) are more strongly related to wave amplitude changes than others. The findings suggest that amplification of quasi-stationary waves preferentially increases the probabilities of heat waves in western North America and central Asia, cold outbreaks in eastern North America, droughts in central North America, Europe and central Asia, and wet spells in western Asia.

  2. Increasing impacts of climate extremes on critical infrastructures in Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Forzieri, Giovanni; Bianchi, Alessandra; Feyen, Luc; Silva, Filipe Batista e.; Marin, Mario; Lavalle, Carlo; Leblois, Antoine

    2016-04-01

    The projected increases in exposure to multiple climate hazards in many regions of Europe, emphasize the relevance of a multi-hazard risk assessment to comprehensively quantify potential impacts of climate change and develop suitable adaptation strategies. In this context, quantifying the future impacts of climatic extremes on critical infrastructures is crucial due to their key role for human wellbeing and their effects on the overall economy. Critical infrastructures describe the existing assets and systems that are essential for the maintenance of vital societal functions, health, safety, security, economic or social well-being of people, and the disruption or destruction of which would have a significant impact as a result of the failure to maintain those functions. We assess the direct damages of heat and cold waves, river and coastal flooding, droughts, wildfires and windstorms to energy, transport, industry and social infrastructures in Europe along the 21st century. The methodology integrates in a coherent framework climate hazard, exposure and vulnerability components. Overall damage is expected to rise up to 38 billion €/yr, ten time-folds the current climate damage, with drastic variations in risk scenarios. Exemplificative are drought and heat-related damages that could represent 70% of the overall climate damage in 2080s versus the current 12%. Many regions, prominently Southern Europe, will likely suffer multiple stresses and systematic infrastructure failures due to climate extremes if no suitable adaptation measures will be taken.

  3. Interannual to millennial variability of climate extreme indices over Europe: evidence from high resolution proxy data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rimbu, Norel; Ionita, Monica; Lohmann, Gerrit

    2016-04-01

    Interannual to millennial time scale variability of precipitation (R20mm, Rx5day, R95pTOT), cold (TN10p, CSDI and CFD), heat (TX90p and WSDI) and drought (CDD) extreme climate indices is investigated using long-term observational and proxy records. We detect significant correlations between these indices and various high resolution proxy records like lake sediments from southern Germany, stable oxygen isotopes from Greenland ice cores and stable oxygen isotopes from Red Sea corals during observational period. The analysis of long-term reanalysis data in combination with extreme climate indices and proxy data reveals that distinct atmospheric circulation patterns explain most of the identified relationships. In particular, we show that a sediment record from southern Germany (lake Ammersee), which records flood frequency of River Ammer during the last 5500 years, is related to a wave-train atmospheric circulation pattern with a pronounced negative center over western Europe. We show that high frequency of River Ammer floods is related not only to high frequency of extreme precipitation events (R95p) in the Ammer region but also with significant positive anomalies of various extreme temperature indices (TX90p and TXx) over northeastern Europe. Such extreme temperatures are forced by cloudiness anomaly pattern associated with flood related atmospheric circulation pattern. Based on this record we discuss possible interannual to millennial scale variations of extreme precipitation and temperature indices over Europe during the last 5500 years. Coherent variations of extreme precipitation and temperature indices over Europe and stable oxygen isotopes from Greenland ice cores and northern Red Sea corals during observational period are related to atmospheric blocking variability in the North Atlantic region. Possible variations of climate extreme indices during different time slices of the Holocene period and their implications for future extreme climate variability are

  4. Effects of extreme spring temperatures on phenology: a case study from Munich and Ingolstadt

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jochner, Susanne; Menzel, Annette

    2010-05-01

    Extreme events - e.g. warm spells or heavy precipitation events - are likely to increase in the future both in frequency and intensity. Therefore, research on extreme events gains new importance; also in terms of plant development which is mostly triggered by temperatures. An arising question is how plants respond to an extreme warm spell when following an extreme cold winter season. This situation could be studied in spring 2009 in the greater area of Munich and Ingolstadt by phenological observations of flowering and leaf unfolding of birch (Betula pendula L.) and flowering of horse chestnut (Aesculus hippocastanum L.). The long chilling period of winter 2008 and spring 2009 was followed by an immediate strong forcing of flowering and leaf unfolding, especially for birch. This extreme weather situation diminished the difference between urban and rural dates of onset. Another important fact that could be observed in the proceeding period of December 2008 to April 2009 was the reduced temperature difference among urban and rural sites (urban heat island effect). Long-term observations (1951-2008) of the phenological network of the German Meteorological Service (DWD) were used to identify years with reduced urban-rural differences between onset times in the greater area of Munich in the past. Statistical analyses were conducted in order to answer the question whether the sequence of extreme warm and cold events leads to a decreased difference in phenological onset times or if this behaviour can be attributed to extreme warm springs themselves or to the decreased urban heat island effect which is mostly affected by general atmospheric circulation patterns.

  5. Performance characteristic of thermosyphon heat pipe at radiant heat source

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hrabovský, Peter; Papučík, Štefan; Kaduchová, Katarína

    2016-06-01

    This article discusses about device, which is called heat pipe. This device is with heat source with radiant heat source. Heat pipe is device with high efficiency of heat transfer. The heat pipe, which is describe in this article is termosyphon heat pipe. The experiment with termosyphon heat pipe get a result. On the base of result, it will be in future to create mathematical model in Ansys. Thermosyphon heat pipe is made of copper and distilled water is working fluid. The significance of this experiment consists in getting of the heat transfer and performance characteristic. On the basis of measured and calculated data can be constructed the plots.

  6. Extreme Scale Visual Analytics

    SciTech Connect

    Wong, Pak C.; Shen, Han-Wei; Pascucci, Valerio

    2012-05-08

    Extreme-scale visual analytics (VA) is about applying VA to extreme-scale data. The articles in this special issue examine advances related to extreme-scale VA problems, their analytical and computational challenges, and their real-world applications.

  7. Extreme Environments Technologies for Probes to Venus and Jupiter

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Balint, Tibor S.; Kolawa, Elizabeth A.; Peterson, Craig E.; Cutts, James A.; Belz, Andrea P.

    2007-01-01

    This viewgraph presentation reviews the technologies that are used to mitigate extreme environments for probes at Venus and Jupiter. The contents include: 1) Extreme environments at Venus and Jupiter; 2) In-situ missions to Venus and Jupiter (past/present/future); and 3) Approaches to mitigate conditions of extreme environments for probes with systems architectures and technologies.

  8. Extreme Environments: Why NASA?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meyer, M. A.

    2002-12-01

    Life on our planet is the only known example in the universe and so we are relegated to this planet for the study of life. However, life may be a natural consequence of planet formation, and so the study of the origin, evolution, distribution and future of life may be greatly informed by planetary exploration. Astrobiology has adopted several approaches to study life on Earth, for deducing our origins, for determining the likelihood of life elsewhere, and for enabling the search for evidence of past or present life. The first approach has been the Exobiology Program, centered around understanding the origins of life and which supports individual investigator research. Second has been the construction of consortia-type research in which researchers from different disciplines focus on a larger problem. This structure began with NASA Specialized Centers of Research and Training and has grown to include the Astrobiology Institute - a collection of competitively selected groups of researchers attacking problems in Astrobiology as individual teams and as a consolidated Institute. With the formation of an intellectual basis for exploring for life elsewhere, Astrobiology has initiated the competitive research and development program in instrument development (Astrobiology Science and Technology for Instrument Development [ASTID] Program) that would enable future mission instruments for the exploration of planetary bodies in the search for prebiotic chemistry, habitable environments (past or present), biomarkers, and possibly life itself. However, the act of exploring requires robust instrumentation, mobile robotic platforms, efficient operations, and a high level of autonomy. To this end, Astrobiology has started a new research activity that promotes scientifically-driven robotic exploration of extreme environments on Earth that are analogous to suspected habitable environments on other planetary bodies. The program is called Astrobiology Science and Technology for

  9. Simulation of Lake Surface Heat Fluxes by the Canadian Small Lake Model: Offline Performance Assessment for Future Coupling with a Regional Climate Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pernica, P.; Guerrero, J. L.; MacKay, M.; Wheater, H. S.

    2014-12-01

    Lakes strongly influence local and regional climate especially in regions where they are abundant. Development of a lake model for the purpose of integration within a regional climate model is therefore a subject of scientific interest. Of particular importance are the heat flux predictions provided by the lake model since they function as key forcings in a fully coupled atmosphere-land-lake system. The first step towards a coupled model is to validate and characterize the accuracy of the lake model over a range of conditions and to identify limitations. In this work, validation results from offline tests of the Canadian Small Lake Model; a deterministic, computationally efficient, 1D integral model, are presented. Heat fluxes (sensible and latent) and surface water temperatures simulated by the model are compared with in situ observations from two lakes; Landing Lake (NWT, Canada) and L239 (ELA, Canada) for the 2007-2009 period. Sensitivity analysis is performed to identify key parameters important for heat flux predictions. The results demonstrate the ability of the 1-D lake model to reproduce both diurnal and seasonal variations in heat fluxes and surface temperatures for the open water period. These results, in context of regional climate modelling are also discussed.

  10. Are hourly precipitation extremes increasing faster than daily precipitation extremes?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barbero, Renaud; Fowler, Hayley; Blenkinsop, Stephen; Lenderink, Geert

    2016-04-01

    Extreme precipitation events appear to be increasing with climate change in many regions of the world, including the United States. These extreme events have large societal impacts, as seen during the recent Texas-Oklahoma flooding in May 2015 which caused several billion in damages and left 47 deaths in its path. Better understanding of past changes in the characteristics of extreme rainfall events is thus critical for reliable projections of future changes. Although it has been documented in several studies that daily precipitation extremes are increasing across parts of the contiguous United States, very few studies have looked at hourly extremes. However, this is of primary importance as recent studies on the temperature scaling of extreme precipitation have shown that increases above the Clausius-Clapeyron (~ 7% °C‑1) are possible for hourly precipitation. In this study, we used hourly precipitation data (HPD) from the National Climatic Data Center and extracted more than 1,000 stations across the US with more than 40 years of data spanning the period 1950-2010. As hourly measurements are often associated with a range of issues, the data underwent multiple quality control processes to exclude erroneous data. While no significant changes were found in annual maximum precipitation using both hourly and daily resolution datasets, significant increasing trends in terms of frequency of episodes exceeding present-day 95th percentiles of wet hourly/daily precipitation were observed across a significant portion of the US. The fraction of stations with significant increasing trends falls outside the confidence interval range during all seasons but the summer. While less than 12% of stations exhibit significant trends at the daily scale in the wintertime, more than 45% of stations, mostly clustered in central and Northern United States, show significant increasing trends at the hourly scale. This suggests that short-duration storms have increased faster than daily

  11. Are hourly precipitation extremes increasing faster than daily precipitation extremes?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barbero, Renaud; Fowler, Hayley; Blenkinsop, Stephen; Lenderink, Geert

    2016-04-01

    Extreme precipitation events appear to be increasing with climate change in many regions of the world, including the United States. These extreme events have large societal impacts, as seen during the recent Texas-Oklahoma flooding in May 2015 which caused several billion in damages and left 47 deaths in its path. Better understanding of past changes in the characteristics of extreme rainfall events is thus critical for reliable projections of future changes. Although it has been documented in several studies that daily precipitation extremes are increasing across parts of the contiguous United States, very few studies have looked at hourly extremes. However, this is of primary importance as recent studies on the temperature scaling of extreme precipitation have shown that increases above the Clausius-Clapeyron (~ 7% °C-1) are possible for hourly precipitation. In this study, we used hourly precipitation data (HPD) from the National Climatic Data Center and extracted more than 1,000 stations across the US with more than 40 years of data spanning the period 1950-2010. As hourly measurements are often associated with a range of issues, the data underwent multiple quality control processes to exclude erroneous data. While no significant changes were found in annual maximum precipitation using both hourly and daily resolution datasets, significant increasing trends in terms of frequency of episodes exceeding present-day 95th percentiles of wet hourly/daily precipitation were observed across a significant portion of the US. The fraction of stations with significant increasing trends falls outside the confidence interval range during all seasons but the summer. While less than 12% of stations exhibit significant trends at the daily scale in the wintertime, more than 45% of stations, mostly clustered in central and Northern United States, show significant increasing trends at the hourly scale. This suggests that short-duration storms have increased faster than daily

  12. Finding of No Significant Impact and Final Environmental Assessment for the Future Location of Heat Source/Radioisotope Power System Assembly and Testing and Operations Currently Located at the Mound Site

    SciTech Connect

    N /A

    2002-08-30

    The U.S. Department of Energy (the Department) has completed an Environmental Assessment for the Future Location of the Heat Source/Radioisotope Power System Assembly and Test. Operations Currently Located at the Mound Site. Based on the analysis in the environmental assessment, the Department has determined that the proposed action, the relocation of the Department's heat source and radioisotope power system operations, does not constitute a major Federal action significantly affecting the quality of the human environment within the meaning of the ''National Environmental Policy Act'' of 1969 (NEPA). Therefore, the preparation of an Environmental Impact Statement is not required, and the Department is issuing this Finding of No Significant Impact (FONSI).

  13. The Future of Io Studies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Spencer, J. R.; Io Community Panel 0,

    2001-11-01

    Io is a target of extreme scientific interest, due to its hyperactive geology, unique atmosphere, and unique role in the Jovian magnetosphere. Nowhere else beyond Earth can we watch large-scale geology in real time. Io is also important for what it tells us about other bodies. Its high heat flow provides a window into conditions on the early Earth at the time life began. An understanding of Io's tidal heating is important for understanding the coupled tidal heating that may support an ocean on Europa. Io's tidal heating and magnetospheric effects also provide analogs for processes that may occur in the satellite systems and magnetospheres of extra-solar giant planets. Much remains to be learned. For instance we do not understand why Io emits more heat that can be generated by steady-state tidal heating. Galileo's brief snapshot observations have not shown us Io's full range of eruption styles. We do not know the composition of the erupted lavas, or understand how Io's volcanos supply gas and plasma to the atmosphere and Jovian magnetosphere. Io may be most feasibly studied by a long-duration mission in Jovicentric orbit, with continuous distant monitoring and frequent close Io approaches, possibly supplemented by penetrators. Such a mission is technically much easier than the proposed Europa orbiter and could also be broadened into a "Tidal Heating Explorer" investigating all the Galilean satellites. A modern spacecraft could vastly increase our understanding beyond that provided by Galileo's 1980-vintage instrumentation and very low data rate. We propose that future missions to Io should include funds for ground-based support. Io's unpredictability means that high temporal and spatial resolution ground-based observations of Io will be an invaluable and cost-effective supplement to space missions, and are also important in their own right. Also, as Io's atmosphere and plumes are best studied in the UV, we urge development of a space-based UV telescope to replace

  14. A Millennial Challenge: Extremism in Uncertain Times

    PubMed Central

    Fiske, Susan T.

    2014-01-01

    This comment highlights the relevance and importance of the uncertainty-extremism topic, both scientifically and societally, identifies common themes, locates this work in a wider scientific and social context, describes what we now know and what we still do not, acknowledges some limitations, foreshadowing future directions, and discusses some potential policy relevance. Common themes emerge around the importance of social justice as sound anti-extremism policy. PMID:24511155

  15. A Millennial Challenge: Extremism in Uncertain Times.

    PubMed

    Fiske, Susan T

    2013-09-01

    This comment highlights the relevance and importance of the uncertainty-extremism topic, both scientifically and societally, identifies common themes, locates this work in a wider scientific and social context, describes what we now know and what we still do not, acknowledges some limitations, foreshadowing future directions, and discusses some potential policy relevance. Common themes emerge around the importance of social justice as sound anti-extremism policy. PMID:24511155

  16. Environmental extremes: origins, consequences and amelioration in humans.

    PubMed

    Tipton, M J

    2016-01-01

    Professor Sir George Lindor Brown (1903-1971) is known for his pioneering research into cholinergic neuromuscular transmission. However, during World War II he worked in hyperbaric physiology, and his research into underwater physiology greatly improved the safety of divers. It is perhaps fitting, therefore, that this review, which accompanies the Physiological Society's G. L. Brown Prize Lecture for 2015, explores the impact and mitigation of the environmental stresses which, to varying extents, have shaped our past, threaten our present and inform our future. From a whole-body, integrative perspective, this review examines our current understanding of microgravity, hypo- and hyperbaria, heat, cold air and cold water as both individual and combined stresses. Consideration is given to ways of mitigating the threat posed by environmental extremes, including the differing extents to which humans can demonstrate adaptation to them. Finally, recommendations for further study are suggested that might result in both direct and indirect insights. PMID:26391095

  17. Environmental extremes: origins, consequences and amelioration in humans.

    PubMed

    Tipton, M J

    2016-01-01

    Professor Sir George Lindor Brown (1903-1971) is known for his pioneering research into cholinergic neuromuscular transmission. However, during World War II he worked in hyperbaric physiology, and his research into underwater physiology greatly improved the safety of divers. It is perhaps fitting, therefore, that this review, which accompanies the Physiological Society's G. L. Brown Prize Lecture for 2015, explores the impact and mitigation of the environmental stresses which, to varying extents, have shaped our past, threaten our present and inform our future. From a whole-body, integrative perspective, this review examines our current understanding of microgravity, hypo- and hyperbaria, heat, cold air and cold water as both individual and combined stresses. Consideration is given to ways of mitigating the threat posed by environmental extremes, including the differing extents to which humans can demonstrate adaptation to them. Finally, recommendations for further study are suggested that might result in both direct and indirect insights.

  18. Understanding hydrological extremes in the Anthropocene

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mård, Johanna; Di Baldassarre, Giuliano

    2016-04-01

    Hydrological extremes, from floods to droughts, pose one of the greatest challenges of the 21st century. Many of these challenges are associated with societal interactions with water, as people control or impact hydrological systems in a multitude of ways while they are also being affected and shaped by hydrological extremes, depending on their response to drought and flood events. However, the fact that the human and natural components of freshwater systems interact and co-evolve over time is often not taken into account. There is a need to study the two-way coupling between hydrology and society within a more comprehensive framework for hydrological extremes to anticipate future trajectories in a rapidly changing world. We present an interdisciplinary framework (and concepts) to identify internal controlling variables, processes and feedbacks, and the external system drivers and disturbances of the coupled human-water system with regard to hydrological extremes. To achieve this, the study (i) synthesizes existing research on coupled human-water system focusing on floods and droughts, (ii) analyzes hydrological extremes that have already occurred and their spatiotemporal patterns to investigate what patterns are observed in different regions of the world, and (iii) systematically describe the observed hydrological extremes, their causes and the interactions and feedbacks between hydrology and society. Advancing our understanding of mechanisms and feedbacks driving hydrological extremes is essential to better anticipate how the coupled human-water system will respond to future environmental change.

  19. 21st Birthday Drinking: Extremely Extreme

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rutledge, Patricia C.; Park, Aesoon; Sher, Kenneth J.

    2008-01-01

    Despite public recognition of the hazards of 21st birthday drinking, there is little empirical information concerning its prevalence, severity, and risk factors. Data from a sample of 2,518 college students suggest that 21st birthday drinking poses an extreme danger: (a) 4 of every 5 participants (83%) reported drinking to celebrate, (b) birthday…

  20. How extreme is extreme hourly precipitation?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Papalexiou, Simon Michael; Dialynas, Yannis G.; Pappas, Christoforos

    2016-04-01

    The importance of accurate representation of precipitation at fine time scales (e.g., hourly), directly associated with flash flood events, is crucial in hydrological design and prediction. The upper part of a probability distribution, known as the distribution tail, determines the behavior of extreme events. In general, and loosely speaking, tails can be categorized in two families: the subexponential and the hyperexponential family, with the first generating more intense and more frequent extremes compared to the latter. In past studies, the focus has been mainly on daily precipitation, with the Gamma distribution being the most popular model. Here, we investigate the behaviour of tails of hourly precipitation by comparing the upper part of empirical distributions of thousands of records with three general types of tails corresponding to the Pareto, Lognormal, and Weibull distributions. Specifically, we use thousands of hourly rainfall records from all over the USA. The analysis indicates that heavier-tailed distributions describe better the observed hourly rainfall extremes in comparison to lighter tails. Traditional representations of the marginal distribution of hourly rainfall may significantly deviate from observed behaviours of extremes, with direct implications on hydroclimatic variables modelling and engineering design.

  1. Pneumatic Proboscis Heat-Flow Probe

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zacny, Kris; Hedlund, Magnus; Mumm, Eric; Shasho, Jeffrey; Chu, Philip; Kumar, Nishant

    2013-01-01

    Heat flow is a fundamental property of a planet, and provides significant constraints on the abundance of radiogenic isotopes, the thermal evolution and differentiation history, and the mechanical properties of the lithosphere. Heat-flow measurements are also essential in achieving at least four of the goals set out by the National Research Council for future lunar exploration. The heat-flow probe therefore directly addresses the goal of the Lunar Geophysical Network, which is to understand the interior structure and composition of the Moon. A key challenge for heat flow measurement is to install thermal sensors to the depths approximately equal to 3 m that are not influenced by the diurnal, annual, and longer-term fluctuations of the surface thermal environment. In addition, once deployed, the heat flow probe should cause little disturbance to the thermal regime of the surrounding regolith. A heat-flow probe system was developed that has two novel features: (1) it utilizes a pneumatic (gas) approach, excavates a hole by lofting the lunar soil out of the hole, and (2) deploys the heat flow probe, which utilizes a coiled up tape as a thermal probe to reach greater than 3-meter depth. The system is a game-changer for small lunar landers as it exhibits extremely low mass, volume, and simple deployment. The pneumatic system takes advantage of the helium gas used for pressurizing liquid propellant of the lander. Normally, helium is vented once the lander is on the surface, but it can be utilized for powering pneumatic systems. Should sufficient helium not be available, a simple gas delivery system may be taken specifically for the heat flow probe. Either way, the pneumatic heat flow probe system would be much lighter than other systems that entirely rely on the electrical power of the lander.

  2. Heat Pipes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1990-01-01

    Bobs Candies, Inc. produces some 24 million pounds of candy a year, much of it 'Christmas candy.' To meet Christmas demand, it must produce year-round. Thousands of cases of candy must be stored a good part of the year in two huge warehouses. The candy is very sensitive to temperature. The warehouses must be maintained at temperatures of 78-80 degrees Fahrenheit with relative humidities of 38- 42 percent. Such precise climate control of enormous buildings can be very expensive. In 1985, energy costs for the single warehouse ran to more than $57,000 for the year. NASA and the Florida Solar Energy Center (FSEC) were adapting heat pipe technology to control humidity in building environments. The heat pipes handle the jobs of precooling and reheating without using energy. The company contacted a FSEC systems engineer and from that contact eventually emerged a cooperative test project to install a heat pipe system at Bobs' warehouses, operate it for a period of time to determine accurately the cost benefits, and gather data applicable to development of future heat pipe systems. Installation was completed in mid-1987 and data collection is still in progress. In 1989, total energy cost for two warehouses, with the heat pipes complementing the air conditioning system was $28,706, and that figures out to a cost reduction.

  3. North American extreme temperature events and related large scale meteorological patterns: a review of statistical methods, dynamics, modeling, and trends

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grotjahn, Richard; Black, Robert; Leung, Ruby; Wehner, Michael F.; Barlow, Mathew; Bosilovich, Mike; Gershunov, Alexander; Gutowski, William J.; Gyakum, John R.; Katz, Richard W.; Lee, Yun-Young; Lim, Young-Kwon; Prabhat

    2016-02-01

    The objective of this paper is to review statistical methods, dynamics, modeling efforts, and trends related to temperature extremes, with a focus upon extreme events of short duration that affect parts of North America. These events are associated with large scale meteorological patterns (LSMPs). The statistics, dynamics, and modeling sections of this paper are written to be autonomous and so can be read separately. Methods to define extreme events statistics and to identify and connect LSMPs to extreme temperature events are presented. Recent advances in statistical techniques connect LSMPs to extreme temperatures through appropriately defined covariates that supplement more straightforward analyses. Various LSMPs, ranging from synoptic to planetary scale structures, are associated with extreme temperature events. Current knowledge about the synoptics and the dynamical mechanisms leading to the associated LSMPs is incomplete. Systematic studies of: the physics of LSMP life cycles, comprehensive model assessment of LSMP-extreme temperature event linkages, and LSMP properties are needed. Generally, climate models capture observed properties of heat waves and cold air outbreaks with some fidelity. However they overestimate warm wave frequency and underestimate cold air outbreak frequency, and underestimate the collective influence of low-frequency modes on temperature extremes. Modeling studies have identified the impact of large-scale circulation anomalies and land-atmosphere interactions on changes in extreme temperatures. However, few studies have examined changes in LSMPs to more specifically understand the role of LSMPs on past and future extreme temperature changes. Even though LSMPs are resolvable by global and regional climate models, they are not necessarily well simulated. The paper concludes with unresolved issues and research questions.

  4. The Construction and Validation of the Heat Vulnerability Index, a Review.

    PubMed

    Bao, Junzhe; Li, Xudong; Yu, Chuanhua

    2015-06-26

    The occurrence of extreme heat and its adverse effects will be exacerbated with the trend of global warming. An increasing number of researchers have been working on aggregating multiple heat-related indicators to create composite indices for heat vulnerability assessments and have visualized the vulnerability through geographic information systems to provide references for reducing the adverse effects of extreme heat more effectively. This review includes 15 studies concerning heat vulnerability assessment. We have studied the indicators utilized and the methods adopted in these studies for the construction of the heat vulnerability index (HVI) and then further reviewed some of the studies that validated the HVI. We concluded that the HVI is useful for targeting the intervention of heat risk, and that heat-related health outcomes could be used to validate and optimize the HVI. In the future, more studies should be conducted to provide references for the selection of heat-related indicators and the determination of weight values of these indicators in the development of the HVI. Studies concerning the application of the HVI are also needed.

  5. Socio-cultural reflections on heat in Australia with implications for health and climate change adaptation

    PubMed Central

    Banwell, Cathy; Dixon, Jane; Bambrick, Hilary; Edwards, Ferne; Kjellström, Tord

    2012-01-01

    Background Australia has a hot climate with maximum summer temperatures in its major cities frequently exceeding 35°C. Although ‘heat waves’ are an annual occurrence, the associated heat-related deaths among vulnerable groups, such as older people, suggest that Australians could be better prepared to deal with extreme heat. Objective To understand ways in which a vulnerable sub-population adapt their personal behaviour to cope with heat within the context of Australians’ relationship with heat. Design We draw upon scientific, historical and literary sources and on a set of repeat interviews in the suburbs of Western Sydney with eight older participants and two focus group discussions. We discuss ways in which this group of older people modifies their behaviour to adapt to heat, and reflect on manifestations of Australians’ ambivalence towards heat. Results Participants reported a number of methods for coping with extreme heat, including a number of methods of personal cooling, changing patterns of daily activity and altering dietary habits. The use of air-conditioning was near universal, but with recognition that increasing energy costs may become more prohibitive over time. Conclusions While a number of methods are employed by older people to stay cool, these may become limited in the future. Australians’ attitudes may contribute to the ill-health and mortality associated with excessive heat. PMID:23078748

  6. The Construction and Validation of the Heat Vulnerability Index, a Review.

    PubMed

    Bao, Junzhe; Li, Xudong; Yu, Chuanhua

    2015-07-01

    The occurrence of extreme heat and its adverse effects will be exacerbated with the trend of global warming. An increasing number of researchers have been working on aggregating multiple heat-related indicators to create composite indices for heat vulnerability assessments and have visualized the vulnerability through geographic information systems to provide references for reducing the adverse effects of extreme heat more effectively. This review includes 15 studies concerning heat vulnerability assessment. We have studied the indicators utilized and the methods adopted in these studies for the construction of the heat vulnerability index (HVI) and then further reviewed some of the studies that validated the HVI. We concluded that the HVI is useful for targeting the intervention of heat risk, and that heat-related health outcomes could be used to validate and optimize the HVI. In the future, more studies should be conducted to provide references for the selection of heat-related indicators and the determination of weight values of these indicators in the development of the HVI. Studies concerning the application of the HVI are also needed. PMID:26132476

  7. Simulated trends of extreme climate indices for the Carpathian basin using outputs of different regional climate models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pongracz, R.; Bartholy, J.; Szabo, P.; Pieczka, I.; Torma, C. S.

    2009-04-01

    Regional climatological effects of global warming may be recognized not only in shifts of mean temperature and precipitation, but in the frequency or intensity changes of different climate extremes. Several climate extreme indices are analyzed and compared for the Carpathian basin (located in Central/Eastern Europe) following the guidelines suggested by the joint WMO-CCl/CLIVAR Working Group on climate change detection. Our statistical trend analysis includes the evaluation of several extreme temperature and precipitation indices, e.g., the numbers of severe cold days, winter days, frost days, cold days, warm days, summer days, hot days, extremely hot days, cold nights, warm nights, the intra-annual extreme temperature range, the heat wave duration, the growing season length, the number of wet days (using several threshold values defining extremes), the maximum number of consecutive dry days, the highest 1-day precipitation amount, the greatest 5-day rainfall total, the annual fraction due to extreme precipitation events, etc. In order to evaluate the future trends (2071-2100) in the Carpathian basin, daily values of meteorological variables are obtained from the outputs of various regional climate model (RCM) experiments accomplished in the frame of the completed EU-project PRUDENCE (Prediction of Regional scenarios and Uncertainties for Defining EuropeaN Climate change risks and Effects). Horizontal resolution of the applied RCMs is 50 km. Both scenarios A2 and B2 are used to compare past and future trends of the extreme climate indices for the Carpathian basin. Furthermore, fine-resolution climate experiments of two additional RCMs adapted and run at the Department of Meteorology, Eotvos Lorand University are used to extend the trend analysis of climate extremes for the Carpathian basin. (1) Model PRECIS (run at 25 km horizontal resolution) was developed at the UK Met Office, Hadley Centre, and it uses the boundary conditions from the HadCM3 GCM. (2) Model Reg

  8. Bivariate extreme value distributions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Elshamy, M.

    1992-01-01

    In certain engineering applications, such as those occurring in the analyses of ascent structural loads for the Space Transportation System (STS), some of the load variables have a lower bound of zero. Thus, the need for practical models of bivariate extreme value probability distribution functions with lower limits was identified. We discuss the Gumbel models and present practical forms of bivariate extreme probability distributions of Weibull and Frechet types with two parameters. Bivariate extreme value probability distribution functions can be expressed in terms of the marginal extremel distributions and a 'dependence' function subject to certain analytical conditions. Properties of such bivariate extreme distributions, sums and differences of paired extremals, as well as the corresponding forms of conditional distributions, are discussed. Practical estimation techniques are also given.

  9. Heat pipe array heat exchanger

    DOEpatents

    Reimann, Robert C.

    1987-08-25

    A heat pipe arrangement for exchanging heat between two different temperature fluids. The heat pipe arrangement is in a ounterflow relationship to increase the efficiency of the coupling of the heat from a heat source to a heat sink.

  10. The Control of Lighting Heat

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Modern Schools, 1973

    1973-01-01

    The trend toward increased lighting has accelerated the acceptance of heat recovery systems. A heating-lighting-cooling system is a responsible and efficient use of energy for future school buildings. (Author/MLF)

  11. Typologies of Extreme Longevity Myths

    PubMed Central

    Young, Robert D.; Desjardins, Bertrand; McLaughlin, Kirsten; Poulain, Michel; Perls, Thomas T.

    2010-01-01

    Purpose. Political, national, religious, and other motivations have led the media and even scientists to errantly accept extreme longevity claims prima facie. We describe various causes of false claims of extraordinary longevity. Design and Methods. American Social Security Death Index files for the period 1980–2009 were queried for individuals with birth and death dates yielding ages 110+ years of age. Frequency was compared to a list of age-validated supercentenarians maintained by the Gerontology Research Group who died during the same time period. Age claims of 110+ years and the age validation experiences of the authors facilitated a list of typologies of false age claims. Results. Invalid age claim rates increase with age from 65% at age 110-111 to 98% by age 115 to 100% for 120+ years. Eleven typologies of false claims were: Religious Authority Myth, Village Elder Myth, Fountain of Youth Myth (substance), Shangri-La Myth (geographic), Nationalist Pride, Spiritual Practice, Familial Longevity, Individual and/or Family Notoriety, Military Service, Administrative Entry Error, and Pension-Social Entitlement Fraud. Conclusions. Understanding various causes of false extreme age claims is important for placing current, past, and future extreme longevity claims in context and for providing a necessary level of skepticism. PMID:21461047

  12. [Heat waves: health impacts].

    PubMed

    Marto, Natália

    2005-01-01

    During the summer of 2003, record high temperatures were reported across Europe, causing thousands of casualties. Heat waves are sporadic recurrent events, characterised by intense and prolonged heat, associated with excess mortality and morbidity. The most frequent cause of death directly attributable to heat is heat stroke but heat waves are known to cause increases in all-cause mortality, specially circulatory and respiratory mortality. Epidemiological studies demonstrate excess casualties cluster in specific risk groups. The elderly, those with chronic medical conditions and the socially isolated are particularly vulnerable. Air conditioning is the strongest protective factor against heat-related disorders. Heat waves cause disease indirectly, by aggravating chronic disorders, and directly, by causing heat-related illnesses (HRI). Classic HRI include skin eruptions, heat cramps, heat syncope, heat exhaustion and heat stroke. Heat stroke is a medical emergency characterised by hyperthermia and central nervous system dysfunction. Treatment includes immediate cooling and support of organ-system function. Despite aggressive treatment, heat stroke is often fatal and permanent neurological damage is frequent in those who survive. Heat related illness and death are preventable through behavioural adaptations, such as use of air conditioning and increased fluid intake. Other adaptation measures include heat emergency warning systems and intervention plans and environmental heat stress reduction. Heat related mortality is expected to rise as a consequence of the increasing proportion of elderly persons, the growing urban population, and the anticipated increase in number and intensity of heat waves associated with global warming. Improvements in surveillance and response capability may limit the adverse health conditions of future heat waves. It is crucial that health professionals are prepared to recognise, prevent and treat HRI and learn to cooperate with local health

  13. Global warming and extreme storm surges

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grinsted, Aslak

    2013-04-01

    I will show empirical evidence for how global warming has changed extreme storm surge statistics for different regions in the world. Are there any detectable changes beyond what we expect from sea level rise. What does this suggest about the future of hurricane surges such as from hurricane Katrina and superstorm Sandy?

  14. Surface atmospheric extremes (launch and transportation areas)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1974-01-01

    Criteria are provided on atmospheric extremes from the surface to 150 meters for geographical locations of interest to NASA. Thermal parameters (temperature and solar radiation), humidity, precipitation, pressure, and atmospheric electricity (lightning and static) are presented. Available data are also provided for the entire continental United States for use in future space programs.

  15. Extremal surface barriers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Engelhardt, Netta; Wall, Aron C.

    2014-03-01

    We present a generic condition for Lorentzian manifolds to have a barrier that limits the reach of boundary-anchored extremal surfaces of arbitrary dimension. We show that any surface with nonpositive extrinsic curvature is a barrier, in the sense that extremal surfaces cannot be continuously deformed past it. Furthermore, the outermost barrier surface has nonnegative extrinsic curvature. Under certain conditions, we show that the existence of trapped surfaces implies a barrier, and conversely. In the context of AdS/CFT, these barriers imply that it is impossible to reconstruct the entire bulk using extremal surfaces. We comment on the implications for the firewall controversy.

  16. GCMs-based spatiotemporal evolution of climate extremes during the 21st century in China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Jianfeng; Zhang, Qiang; Chen, Yongqin David; Singh, Vijay P.

    2013-10-01

    Changes in the hydrological cycle being caused by human-induced global warming are triggering variations in observed spatiotemporal distributions of precipitation and temperature extremes, and hence in droughts and floods across China. Evaluation of future climate extremes based on General Circulation Models (GCMs) outputs will be of great importance in scientific management of water resources and agricultural activities. In this study, five precipitation extreme and five temperature extreme indices are defined. This study analyzes daily precipitation and temperature data for 1960-2005 from 529 stations in China and outputs of GCMs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) and Phase 5 (CMIP5). Downscaling methods, based on QQ-plot and transfer functions, are used to downscale GCMs outputs to the site scale. Performances of GCMs in simulating climate extremes were evaluated using the Taylor diagram. Results showed that: (1) the multimodel CMIP5 ensemble performs the best in simulating observed extreme conditions; (2) precipitation processes are intensifying with increased frequency and intensity across entire China. The southwest China, however, is dominated by lengthening maximum consecutive dry days and also more heavy precipitation extremes; (3) warming processes continue with increasing warm nights, decreasing frost days, and lengthening heat waves during the 21st century; (4) changes in precipitation and temperature extremes exhibit larger changing magnitudes under RCP85 scenario; (5) for the evolution of changes in extremes, in most cases, the spatial pattern keeps the same, even though changing rates vary. In some cases, area with specific changing properties extends or shrinks gradually. The directions of trends may alter during the evolution; and (6) changes under RCP85 become more and more pronounced as time elapses. Under the peak-and-decline RCP26, changes in some cases do not decrease correspondingly during 2070-2099 even though the

  17. Heating with waste heat

    SciTech Connect

    Beabout, R.W.

    1986-09-02

    Most of the power consumed in the gaseous diffusion process is converted into heat of compression, which is removed from the process gas and rejected into the atmosphere by recirculating cooling water over cooling towers. The water being handled through the X-333 and X-330 Process Buildings can be heated to 140 to 150/sup 0/F for heating use. The Gas Centrifuge Enrichment Plant is provided with a recirculating heating water (RHW) system which uses X-330 water and wasted heat. The RHW flow is diagrammed. (DLC)

  18. Projected changes in climate extremes over Qatar and the Arabian Gulf region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kundeti, K.; Kanikicharla, K. K.; Al sulaiti, M.; Khulaifi, M.; Alboinin, N.; Kito, A.

    2015-12-01

    The climate of the State of Qatar and the adjacent region is dominated by subtropical dry, hot desert climate with low annual rainfall, very high temperatures in summer and a big difference between maximum and minimum temperatures, especially in the inland areas. The coastal areas are influenced by the Arabian Gulf, and have lower maximum, but higher minimum temperatures and a higher moisture percentage in the air. The global warming can have profound impact on the mean climate as well as extreme weather events over the Arabian Peninsula that may affect both natural and human systems significantly. Therefore, it is important to assess the future changes in the seasonal/annual mean of temperature and precipitation and also the extremes in temperature and wind events for a country like Qatar. This study assesses the performance of the Coupled Model Inter comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations in present and develops future climate scenarios. The changes in climate extremes are assessed for three future periods 2016-2035, 2046-2065 and 2080-2099 with respect to 1986-2005 (base line) under two RCPs (Representative Concentrate Pathways) - RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. We analyzed the projected changes in temperature and precipitation extremes using several indices including those that capture heat stress. The observations show an increase in warm extremes over many parts in this region that are generally well captured by the models. The results indicate a significant change in frequency and intensity of both temperature and precipitation extremes over many parts of this region which may have serious implications on human health, water resources and the onshore/offshore infrastructure in this region. Data from a high-resolution (20km) AGCM simulation from Meteorological Research Institute of Japan Meteorological Agency for the present (1979-2003) and a future time slice (2075-2099) corresponding to RCP8.5 have also been utilized to assess the impact of climate change on

  19. Survival of extreme opinions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hsu, Jiann-wien; Huang, Ding-wei

    2009-12-01

    We study the survival of extreme opinions in various processes of consensus formation. All the opinions are treated equally and subjected to the same rules of changing. We investigate three typical models to reach a consensus in each case: (A) personal influence, (B) influence from surroundings, and (C) influence to surroundings. Starting with uniformly distributed random opinions, our calculated results show that the extreme opinions can survive in both models (A) and (B), but not in model (C). We obtain a conclusion that both personal influence and passive adaptation to the environment are not sufficient enough to eradicate all the extreme opinions. Only the active persuasion to change the surroundings eliminates the extreme opinions completely.

  20. Extreme environments and exobiology.

    PubMed

    Friedmann, E I

    1993-01-01

    Ecological research on extreme environments can be applied to exobiological problems such as the question of life on Mars. If life forms (fossil or extant) are found on Mars, their study will help to solve fundamental questions about the nature of life on Earth. Extreme environments that are beyond the range of adaptability of their inhabitants are defined as "absolute extreme". Such environments can serve as terrestrial models for the last stages of life in the history of Mars, when the surface cooled down and atmosphere and water disappeared. The cryptoendolithic microbial community in porous rocks of the Ross Desert in Antarctica and the microbial mats at the bottom of frozen Antarctic lakes are such examples. The microbial communities of Siberian permafrost show that, in frozen but stable communities, long-term survival is possible. In the context of terraforming Mars, selected microorganisms isolated from absolute extreme environments are considered for use in creation of a biological carbon cycle.

  1. Extreme environments and exobiology

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Friedmann, E. I.

    1993-01-01

    Ecological research on extreme environments can be applied to exobiological problems such as the question of life on Mars. If life forms (fossil or extant) are found on Mars, their study will help to solve fundamental questions about the nature of life on Earth. Extreme environments that are beyond the range of adaptability of their inhabitants are defined as "absolute extreme". Such environments can serve as terrestrial models for the last stages of life in the history of Mars, when the surface cooled down and atmosphere and water disappeared. The cryptoendolithic microbial community in porous rocks of the Ross Desert in Antarctica and the microbial mats at the bottom of frozen Antarctic lakes are such examples. The microbial communities of Siberian permafrost show that, in frozen but stable communities, long-term survival is possible. In the context of terraforming Mars, selected microorganisms isolated from absolute extreme environments are considered for use in creation of a biological carbon cycle.

  2. [Travelers exposed to extreme temperatures].

    PubMed

    Savourey, G; Bittel, J

    1997-01-01

    Sudden introduction of the unadapted human into extreme environments can result in serious, sometimes fatal, reactions. Most complications are due either to failure of thermoregulatory system or consecutive to the physiological responses to those environmental conditions. In addition to a number of minor diseases, cold can cause two major accidents, i.e., hypothermia and frostbite which can be enhanced at altitude. Moreover, the main disease in altitude conditions is represented by the acute mountain sickness which can lead to acute pulmonary and cerebral edema. Heat can cause heatstroke, dehydration, syncope, and other minor disorders. Prevention of these manifestations during stays in inhospitable climatic conditions for which the body is not suited requires knowledge of the environment and its dangers. Implementation of suitable measures can greatly reduces the incidence of adverse effects. PMID:9612745

  3. Development of an Extreme Environment Materials Research Facility at Princeton

    SciTech Connect

    Cohen, A B; Tully, C G; Austin, R; Calaprice, F; McDonald, K; Ascione, G; Baker, G; Davidson, R; Dudek, L; Grisham, L; Kugel, H; Pagdon, K; Stevenson, T; Woolley, R; Zwicker, A

    2010-11-17

    The need for a fundamental understanding of material response to a neutron and/or high heat flux environment can yield development of improved materials and operations with existing materials. Such understanding has numerous applications in fields such as nuclear power (for the current fleet and future fission and fusion reactors), aerospace, and other research fields (e.g., high-intensity proton accelerator facilities for high energy physics research). A proposal has been advanced to develop a facility for testing various materials under extreme heat and neutron exposure conditions at Princeton. The Extreme Environment Materials Research Facility comprises an environmentally controlled chamber (48 m^3) capable of high vacuum conditions, with extreme flux beams and probe beams accessing a central, large volume target. The facility will have the capability to expose large surface areas (1 m^2) to 14 MeV neutrons at a fluence in excess of 10^13 n/s. Depending on the operating mode. Additionally beam line power on the order of 15-75 MW/m2 for durations of 1-15 seconds are planned... The multi-second duration of exposure can be repeated every 2-10 minutes for periods of 10-12 hours. The facility will be housed in the test cell that held the Tokamak Fusion Test Reactor (TFTR), which has the desired radiation and safety controls as well as the necessary loading and assembly infrastructure. The facility will allow testing of various materials to their physical limit of thermal endurance and allow for exploring the interplay between radiation-induced embrittlement, swelling and deformation of materials, and the fatigue and fracturing that occur in response to thermal shocks. The combination of high neutron energies and intense fluences will enable accelerated time scale studies. The results will make contributions for refining predictive failure modes (modeling) in extreme environments, as well as providing a technical platform for the development of new alloys, new

  4. When will unusual heat waves become normal in a warming Africa?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Russo, Simone; Marchese, Andrea F.; Sillmann, J.; Immé, Giuseppina

    2016-05-01

    Africa is one of the most vulnerable continents to climate change. In the upcoming decades the occurrence of longer, hotter and more frequent heat waves could have a strong impact on human mortality and crop production. Here, by applying the heat wave magnitude index daily to temperature reanalysis data, we quantify the magnitude and the spatial extent of the most extreme heat waves experienced in Africa between 1979 and October 2015 across different seasons. Results show that in the recent years Africa experienced hotter, longer and more extent heat waves than in the last two decades of the 20th century. In the future, 50% of regional climateprojections suggest that heat waves that are unusual under present climate conditions will occur on a regular basis by 2040 under the most severe IPCC AR5 scenario (i.e. RCP8.5).

  5. Extreme Programming: Maestro Style

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Norris, Jeffrey; Fox, Jason; Rabe, Kenneth; Shu, I-Hsiang; Powell, Mark

    2009-01-01

    "Extreme Programming: Maestro Style" is the name of a computer programming methodology that has evolved as a custom version of a methodology, called extreme programming that has been practiced in the software industry since the late 1990s. The name of this version reflects its origin in the work of the Maestro team at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory that develops software for Mars exploration missions. Extreme programming is oriented toward agile development of software resting on values of simplicity, communication, testing, and aggressiveness. Extreme programming involves use of methods of rapidly building and disseminating institutional knowledge among members of a computer-programming team to give all the members a shared view that matches the view of the customers for whom the software system is to be developed. Extreme programming includes frequent planning by programmers in collaboration with customers, continually examining and rewriting code in striving for the simplest workable software designs, a system metaphor (basically, an abstraction of the system that provides easy-to-remember software-naming conventions and insight into the architecture of the system), programmers working in pairs, adherence to a set of coding standards, collaboration of customers and programmers, frequent verbal communication, frequent releases of software in small increments of development, repeated testing of the developmental software by both programmers and customers, and continuous interaction between the team and the customers. The environment in which the Maestro team works requires the team to quickly adapt to changing needs of its customers. In addition, the team cannot afford to accept unnecessary development risk. Extreme programming enables the Maestro team to remain agile and provide high-quality software and service to its customers. However, several factors in the Maestro environment have made it necessary to modify some of the conventional extreme

  6. Moving in extreme environments: extreme loading; carriage versus distance.

    PubMed

    Lucas, Samuel J E; Helge, Jørn W; Schütz, Uwe H W; Goldman, Ralph F; Cotter, James D

    2016-01-01

    This review addresses human capacity for movement in the context of extreme loading and with it the combined effects of metabolic, biomechanical and gravitational stress on the human body. This topic encompasses extreme duration, as occurs in ultra-endurance competitions (e.g. adventure racing and transcontinental races) and expeditions (e.g. polar crossings), to the more gravitationally limited load carriage (e.g. in the military context). Juxtaposed to these circumstances is the extreme metabolic and mechanical unloading associated with space travel, prolonged bedrest and sedentary lifestyle, which may be at least as problematic, and are therefore included as a reference, e.g. when considering exposure, dangers and (mal)adaptations. As per the other reviews in this series, we describe the nature of the stress and the associated consequences; illustrate relevant regulations, including why and how they are set; present the pros and cons for self versus prescribed acute and chronic exposure; describe humans' (mal)adaptations; and finally suggest future directions for practice and research. In summary, we describe adaptation patterns that are often U or J shaped and that over time minimal or no load carriage decreases the global load carrying capacity and eventually leads to severe adverse effects and manifest disease under minimal absolute but high relative loads. We advocate that further understanding of load carrying capacity and the inherent mechanisms leading to adverse effects may advantageously be studied in this perspective. With improved access to insightful and portable technologies, there are some exciting possibilities to explore these questions in this context. PMID:27110357

  7. Moving in extreme environments: extreme loading; carriage versus distance.

    PubMed

    Lucas, Samuel J E; Helge, Jørn W; Schütz, Uwe H W; Goldman, Ralph F; Cotter, James D

    2016-01-01

    This review addresses human capacity for movement in the context of extreme loading and with it the combined effects of metabolic, biomechanical and gravitational stress on the human body. This topic encompasses extreme duration, as occurs in ultra-endurance competitions (e.g. adventure racing and transcontinental races) and expeditions (e.g. polar crossings), to the more gravitationally limited load carriage (e.g. in the military context). Juxtaposed to these circumstances is the extreme metabolic and mechanical unloading associated with space travel, prolonged bedrest and sedentary lifestyle, which may be at least as problematic, and are therefore included as a reference, e.g. when considering exposure, dangers and (mal)adaptations. As per the other reviews in this series, we describe the nature of the stress and the associated consequences; illustrate relevant regulations, including why and how they are set; present the pros and cons for self versus prescribed acute and chronic exposure; describe humans' (mal)adaptations; and finally suggest future directions for practice and research. In summary, we describe adaptation patterns that are often U or J shaped and that over time minimal or no load carriage decreases the global load carrying capacity and eventually leads to severe adverse effects and manifest disease under minimal absolute but high relative loads. We advocate that further understanding of load carrying capacity and the inherent mechanisms leading to adverse effects may advantageously be studied in this perspective. With improved access to insightful and portable technologies, there are some exciting possibilities to explore these questions in this context.

  8. An agent-based approach to modelling the effects of extreme events on global food prices

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schewe, Jacob; Otto, Christian; Frieler, Katja

    2015-04-01

    Extreme climate events such as droughts or heat waves affect agricultural production in major food producing regions and therefore can influence the price of staple foods on the world market. There is evidence that recent dramatic spikes in grain prices were at least partly triggered by actual and/or expected supply shortages. The reaction of the market to supply changes is however highly nonlinear and depends on complex and interlinked processes such as warehousing, speculation, and export restrictions. Here we present for the first time an agent-based modelling framework that accounts, in simplified terms, for these processes and allows to estimate the reaction of world food prices to supply shocks on a short (monthly) timescale. We test the basic model using observed historical supply, demand, and price data of wheat as a major food grain. Further, we illustrate how the model can be used in conjunction with biophysical crop models to assess the effect of future changes in extreme event regimes on the volatility of food prices. In particular, the explicit representation of storage dynamics makes it possible to investigate the potentially nonlinear interaction between simultaneous extreme events in different food producing regions, or between several consecutive events in the same region, which may both occur more frequently under future global warming.

  9. Assessing Regional Scale Variability in Extreme Value Statistics Under Altered Climate Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Brunsell, Nathaniel; Mechem, David; Ma, Chunsheng

    2015-02-20

    Recent studies have suggested that low-frequency modes of climate variability can significantly influence regional climate. The climatology associated with extreme events has been shown to be particularly sensitive. This has profound implications for droughts, heat waves, and food production. We propose to examine regional climate simulations conducted over the continental United States by applying a recently developed technique which combines wavelet multi–resolution analysis with information theory metrics. This research is motivated by two fundamental questions concerning the spatial and temporal structure of extreme events. These questions are 1) what temporal scales of the extreme value distributions are most sensitive to alteration by low-frequency climate forcings and 2) what is the nature of the spatial structure of variation in these timescales? The primary objective is to assess to what extent information theory metrics can be useful in characterizing the nature of extreme weather phenomena. Specifically, we hypothesize that (1) changes in the nature of extreme events will impact the temporal probability density functions and that information theory metrics will be sensitive these changes and (2) via a wavelet multi–resolution analysis, we will be able to characterize the relative contribution of different timescales on the stochastic nature of extreme events. In order to address these hypotheses, we propose a unique combination of an established regional climate modeling approach and advanced statistical techniques to assess the effects of low-frequency modes on climate extremes over North America. The behavior of climate extremes in RCM simulations for the 20th century will be compared with statistics calculated from the United States Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) and simulations from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). This effort will serve to establish the baseline behavior of climate extremes, the

  10. Improving the Accuracy of Estimation of Climate Extremes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zolina, Olga; Detemmerman, Valery; Trenberth, Kevin E.

    2010-12-01

    Workshop on Metrics and Methodologies of Estimation of Extreme Climate Events; Paris, France, 27-29 September 2010; Climate projections point toward more frequent and intense weather and climate extremes such as heat waves, droughts, and floods, in a warmer climate. These projections, together with recent extreme climate events, including flooding in Pakistan and the heat wave and wildfires in Russia, highlight the need for improved risk assessments to help decision makers and the public. But accurate analysis and prediction of risk of extreme climate events require new methodologies and information from diverse disciplines. A recent workshop sponsored by the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) and hosted at United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) headquarters in France brought together, for the first time, a unique mix of climatologists, statisticians, meteorologists, oceanographers, social scientists, and risk managers (such as those from insurance companies) who sought ways to improve scientists' ability to characterize and predict climate extremes in a changing climate.

  11. Historical influence of irrigation on climate extremes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thiery, Wim; Davin, Edouard L.; Lawrence, Dave; Hauser, Mathias; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

    2016-04-01

    Land irrigation is an essential practice sustaining global food production and many regional economies. During the last decades, irrigation amounts have been growing rapidly. Emerging scientific evidence indicates that land irrigation substantially affects mean climate conditions in different regions of the world. However, a thorough understanding of the impact of irrigation on extreme climatic conditions, such as heat waves, droughts or intense precipitation, is currently still lacking. In this context, we aim to assess the historical influence of irrigation on the occurrence of climate extremes. To this end, two simulations are conducted over the period 1910-2010 with a state-of-the-art global climate model (the Community Earth System Model, CESM): a control simulation including all major anthropogenic and natural external forcings except for irrigation and a second experiment with transient irrigation enabled. The two simulations are evaluated for their ability to represent (i) hot, dry and wet extremes using the HadEX2 and ERA-Interim datasets as a reference, and (ii) latent heat fluxes using LandFlux-EVAL. Assuming a linear combination of climatic responses to different forcings, the difference between both experiments approximates the influence of irrigation. We will analyse the impact of irrigation on a number of climate indices reflecting the intensity and duration of heat waves. Thereby, particular attention is given to the role of soil moisture changes in modulating climate extremes. Furthermore, the contribution of individual biogeophysical processes to the total impact of irrigation on hot extremes is quantified by application of a surface energy balance decomposition technique to the 90th and 99th percentile surface temperature changes.

  12. Data informatics for the Detection, Characterization, and Attribution of Climate Extremes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Collins, W.; Wehner, M. F.; O'Brien, T. A.; Paciorek, C. J.; Krishnan, H.; Johnson, J. N.; Prabhat, M.

    2015-12-01

    The potential for increasing frequency and intensity of extremephenomena including downpours, heat waves, and tropical cyclonesconstitutes one of the primary risks of climate change for society andthe environment. The challenge of characterizing these risks is thatextremes represent the "tails" of distributions of atmosphericphenomena and are, by definition, highly localized and typicallyrelatively transient. Therefore very large volumes of observationaldata and projections of future climate are required to quantify theirproperties in a robust manner. Massive data analytics are required inorder to detect individual extremes, accumulate statistics on theirproperties, quantify how these statistics are changing with time, andattribute the effects of anthropogenic global warming on thesestatistics. We describe examples of the suite of techniques the climate communityis developing to address these analytical challenges. The techniquesinclude massively parallel methods for detecting and trackingatmospheric rivers and cyclones; data-intensive extensions togeneralized extreme value theory to summarize the properties ofextremes; and multi-model ensembles of hindcasts to quantify theattributable risk of anthropogenic influence on individual extremes.We conclude by highlighting examples of these methods developed by ourCASCADE (Calibrated and Systematic Characterization, Attribution, andDetection of Extremes) project.

  13. Impacts of Climate Change On The Occurrence of Extreme Events: The Mice Project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Palutikof, J. P.; Mice Team

    It is widely accepted that climate change due to global warming will have substan- tial impacts on the natural environment, and on human activities. Furthermore, it is increasingly recognized that changes in the severity and frequency of extreme events, such as windstorm and flood, are likely to be more important than changes in the average climate. The EU-funded project MICE (Modelling the Impacts of Climate Extremes) commenced in January 2002. It seeks to identify the likely changes in the occurrence of extremes of rainfall, temperature and windstorm due to global warm- ing, using information from climate models as a basis, and to study the impacts of these changes in selected European environments. The objectives are: a) to evaluate, by comparison with gridded and station observations, the ability of climate models to successfully reproduce the occurrence of extremes at the required spatial and temporal scales. b) to analyse model output with respect to future changes in the occurrence of extremes. Statistical analyses will determine changes in (i) the return periods of ex- tremes, (ii) the joint probability of extremes (combinations of damaging events such as windstorm followed by heavy rain), (iii) the sequential behaviour of extremes (whether events are well-separated or clustered) and (iv) the spatial patterns of extreme event occurrence across Europe. The range of uncertainty in model predictions will be ex- plored by analysing changes in model experiments with different spatial resolutions and forcing scenarios. c) to determine the impacts of the predicted changes in extremes occurrence on selected activity sectors: agriculture (Mediterranean drought), commer- cial forestry and natural forest ecosystems (windstorm and flood in northern Europe, fire in the Mediterranean), energy use (temperature extremes), tourism (heat stress and Mediterranean beach holidays, changes in the snow pack and winter sports ) and civil protection/insurance (windstorm and flood

  14. Microbial diversity of extreme habitats in human homes.

    PubMed

    Savage, Amy M; Hills, Justin; Driscoll, Katherine; Fergus, Daniel J; Grunden, Amy M; Dunn, Robert R

    2016-01-01

    High-throughput sequencing techniques have opened up the world of microbial diversity to scientists, and a flurry of studies in the most remote and extreme habitats on earth have begun to elucidate the key roles of microbes in ecosystems with extreme conditions. These same environmental extremes can also be found closer to humans, even in our homes. Here, we used high-throughput sequencing techniques to assess bacterial and archaeal diversity in the extreme environments inside human homes (e.g., dishwashers, hot water heaters, washing machine bleach reservoirs, etc.). We focused on habitats in the home with extreme temperature, pH, and chemical environmental conditions. We found a lower diversity of microbes in these extreme home environments compared to less extreme habitats in the home. However, we were nonetheless able to detect sequences from a relatively diverse array of bacteria and archaea. Habitats with extreme temperatures alone appeared to be able to support a greater diversity of microbes than habitats with extreme pH or extreme chemical environments alone. Microbial diversity was lowest when habitats had both extreme temperature and one of these other extremes. In habitats with both extreme temperatures and extreme pH, taxa with known associations with extreme conditions dominated. Our findings highlight the importance of examining interactive effects of multiple environmental extremes on microbial communities. Inasmuch as taxa from extreme environments can be both beneficial and harmful to humans, our findings also suggest future work to understand both the threats and opportunities posed by the life in these habitats. PMID:27672493

  15. Microbial diversity of extreme habitats in human homes

    PubMed Central

    Hills, Justin; Driscoll, Katherine; Fergus, Daniel J.; Grunden, Amy M.; Dunn, Robert R.

    2016-01-01

    High-throughput sequencing techniques have opened up the world of microbial diversity to scientists, and a flurry of studies in the most remote and extreme habitats on earth have begun to elucidate the key roles of microbes in ecosystems with extreme conditions. These same environmental extremes can also be found closer to humans, even in our homes. Here, we used high-throughput sequencing techniques to assess bacterial and archaeal diversity in the extreme environments inside human homes (e.g., dishwashers, hot water heaters, washing machine bleach reservoirs, etc.). We focused on habitats in the home with extreme temperature, pH, and chemical environmental conditions. We found a lower diversity of microbes in these extreme home environments compared to less extreme habitats in the home. However, we were nonetheless able to detect sequences from a relatively diverse array of bacteria and archaea. Habitats with extreme temperatures alone appeared to be able to support a greater diversity of microbes than habitats with extreme pH or extreme chemical environments alone. Microbial diversity was lowest when habitats had both extreme temperature and one of these other extremes. In habitats with both extreme temperatures and extreme pH, taxa with known associations with extreme conditions dominated. Our findings highlight the importance of examining interactive effects of multiple environmental extremes on microbial communities. Inasmuch as taxa from extreme environments can be both beneficial and harmful to humans, our findings also suggest future work to understand both the threats and opportunities posed by the life in these habitats. PMID:27672493

  16. Microbial diversity of extreme habitats in human homes

    PubMed Central

    Hills, Justin; Driscoll, Katherine; Fergus, Daniel J.; Grunden, Amy M.; Dunn, Robert R.

    2016-01-01

    High-throughput sequencing techniques have opened up the world of microbial diversity to scientists, and a flurry of studies in the most remote and extreme habitats on earth have begun to elucidate the key roles of microbes in ecosystems with extreme conditions. These same environmental extremes can also be found closer to humans, even in our homes. Here, we used high-throughput sequencing techniques to assess bacterial and archaeal diversity in the extreme environments inside human homes (e.g., dishwashers, hot water heaters, washing machine bleach reservoirs, etc.). We focused on habitats in the home with extreme temperature, pH, and chemical environmental conditions. We found a lower diversity of microbes in these extreme home environments compared to less extreme habitats in the home. However, we were nonetheless able to detect sequences from a relatively diverse array of bacteria and archaea. Habitats with extreme temperatures alone appeared to be able to support a greater diversity of microbes than habitats with extreme pH or extreme chemical environments alone. Microbial diversity was lowest when habitats had both extreme temperature and one of these other extremes. In habitats with both extreme temperatures and extreme pH, taxa with known associations with extreme conditions dominated. Our findings highlight the importance of examining interactive effects of multiple environmental extremes on microbial communities. Inasmuch as taxa from extreme environments can be both beneficial and harmful to humans, our findings also suggest future work to understand both the threats and opportunities posed by the life in these habitats.

  17. Characterization of extreme sea level at the European coast

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Elizalde, Alberto; Jorda, Gabriel; Mathis, Moritz; Mikolajewicz, Uwe

    2015-04-01

    Extreme high sea levels arise as a combination of storm surges and particular high tides events. Future climate simulations not only project changes in the atmospheric circulation, which induces changes in the wind conditions, but also an increase in the global mean sea level by thermal expansion and ice melting. Such changes increase the risk of coastal flooding, which represents a possible hazard for human activities. Therefore, it is important to investigate the pattern of sea level variability and long-term trends at coastal areas. In order to analyze further extreme sea level events at the European coast in the future climate projections, a new setup for the global ocean model MPIOM coupled with the regional atmosphere model REMO is prepared. The MPIOM irregular grid has enhanced resolution in the European region to resolve the North and the Mediterranean Seas (up to 11 x 11 km at the North Sea). The ocean model includes as well the full luni-solar ephemeridic tidal potential for tides simulation. To simulate the air-sea interaction, the regional atmospheric model REMO is interactively coupled to the ocean model over Europe. Such region corresponds to the EuroCORDEX domain with a 50 x 50 km resolution. Besides the standard fluxes of heat, mass (freshwater), momentum and turbulent energy input, the ocean model is also forced with sea level pressure, in order to be able to capture the full variation of sea level. The hydrological budget within the study domain is closed using a hydrological discharge model. With this model, simulations for present climate and future climate scenarios are carried out to study transient changes on the sea level and extreme events. As a first step, two simulations (coupled and uncoupled ocean) driven by reanalysis data (ERA40) have been conducted. They are used as reference runs to evaluate the climate projection simulations. For selected locations at the coast side, time series of sea level are separated on its different

  18. Futures Conditional.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Theobald, Robert

    The readings presented here are designed to help the reader perceive the future more vividly. Part one of the book suggests the various ways in which the future can be seen; it includes science fiction and the views of various analysts as to what the future holds. Part two collects printed materials about the future from various sources, including…

  19. Extremely high latitude auroras

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gussenhoven, M. S.

    1982-04-01

    It is pointed out that imaging devices on the polar orbiting ISIS and Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) satellites have greatly increased the extent of polar cap and auroral zone coverage and have prompted several studies of polar cap arcs. A description is presented of a statistical study of the occurrence conditions for arcs recorded in DMSP images at extremely high latitudes, taking into account corrected geomagnetic latitudes equal to or greater than 80 deg. The 80 deg boundary is chosen to minimize the problems associated with defining a polar cap boundary. Attention is given to the data base and categorization of extremely high latitude auroras, the relationship to magnetic activity, and the relationship to solar wind conditions. It is found that one category of extremely high latitude auroras is distinctly different from the rest. This category includes the oval auroras which expand poleward in the midnight sector.

  20. Tales of future weather

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hazeleger, W.; van den Hurk, B. J. J. M.; Min, E.; van Oldenborgh, G. J.; Petersen, A. C.; Stainforth, D. A.; Vasileiadou, E.; Smith, L. A.

    2015-02-01

    Society is vulnerable to extreme weather events and, by extension, to human impacts on future events. As climate changes weather patterns will change. The search is on for more effective methodologies to aid decision-makers both in mitigation to avoid climate change and in adaptation to changes. The traditional approach uses ensembles of climate model simulations, statistical bias correction, downscaling to the spatial and temporal scales relevant to decision-makers, and then translation into quantities of interest. The veracity of this approach cannot be tested, and it faces in-principle challenges. Alternatively, numerical weather prediction models in a hypothetical climate setting can provide tailored narratives for high-resolution simulations of high-impact weather in a future climate. This 'tales of future weather' approach will aid in the interpretation of lower-resolution simulations. Arguably, it potentially provides complementary, more realistic and more physically consistent pictures of what future weather might look like.

  1. A Spatial Framework to Map Heat Health Risks at Multiple Scales.

    PubMed

    Ho, Hung Chak; Knudby, Anders; Huang, Wei

    2015-12-18

    In the last few decades extreme heat events have led to substantial excess mortality, most dramatically in Central Europe in 2003, in Russia in 2010, and even in typically cool locations such as Vancouver, Canada, in 2009. Heat-related morbidity and mortality is expected to increase over the coming centuries as the result of climate-driven global increases in the severity and frequency of extreme heat events. Spatial information on heat exposure and population vulnerability may be combined to map the areas of highest risk and focus mitigation efforts there. However, a mismatch in spatial resolution between heat exposure and vulnerability data can cause spatial scale issues such as the Modifiable Areal Unit Problem (MAUP). We used a raster-based model to integrate heat exposure and vulnerability data in a multi-criteria decision analysis, and compared it to the traditional vector-based model. We then used the Getis-Ord G(i) index to generate spatially smoothed heat risk hotspot maps from fine to coarse spatial scales. The raster-based model allowed production of maps at spatial resolution, more description of local-scale heat risk variability, and identification of heat-risk areas not identified with the vector-based approach. Spatial smoothing with the Getis-Ord G(i) index produced heat risk hotspots from local to regional spatial scale. The approach is a framework for reducing spatial scale issues in future heat risk mapping, and for identifying heat risk hotspots at spatial scales ranging from the block-level to the municipality level.

  2. A Spatial Framework to Map Heat Health Risks at Multiple Scales.

    PubMed

    Ho, Hung Chak; Knudby, Anders; Huang, Wei

    2015-12-01

    In the last few decades extreme heat events have led to substantial excess mortality, most dramatically in Central Europe in 2003, in Russia in 2010, and even in typically cool locations such as Vancouver, Canada, in 2009. Heat-related morbidity and mortality is expected to increase over the coming centuries as the result of climate-driven global increases in the severity and frequency of extreme heat events. Spatial information on heat exposure and population vulnerability may be combined to map the areas of highest risk and focus mitigation efforts there. However, a mismatch in spatial resolution between heat exposure and vulnerability data can cause spatial scale issues such as the Modifiable Areal Unit Problem (MAUP). We used a raster-based model to integrate heat exposure and vulnerability data in a multi-criteria decision analysis, and compared it to the traditional vector-based model. We then used the Getis-Ord G(i) index to generate spatially smoothed heat risk hotspot maps from fine to coarse spatial scales. The raster-based model allowed production of maps at spatial resolution, more description of local-scale heat risk variability, and identification of heat-risk areas not identified with the vector-based approach. Spatial smoothing with the Getis-Ord G(i) index produced heat risk hotspots from local to regional spatial scale. The approach is a framework for reducing spatial scale issues in future heat risk mapping, and for identifying heat risk hotspots at spatial scales ranging from the block-level to the municipality level. PMID:26694445

  3. A Spatial Framework to Map Heat Health Risks at Multiple Scales

    PubMed Central

    Ho, Hung Chak; Knudby, Anders; Huang, Wei

    2015-01-01

    In the last few decades extreme heat events have led to substantial excess mortality, most dramatically in Central Europe in 2003, in Russia in 2010, and even in typically cool locations such as Vancouver, Canada, in 2009. Heat-related morbidity and mortality is expected to increase over the coming centuries as the result of climate-driven global increases in the severity and frequency of extreme heat events. Spatial information on heat exposure and population vulnerability may be combined to map the areas of highest risk and focus mitigation efforts there. However, a mismatch in spatial resolution between heat exposure and vulnerability data can cause spatial scale issues such as the Modifiable Areal Unit Problem (MAUP). We used a raster-based model to integrate heat exposure and vulnerability data in a multi-criteria decision analysis, and compared it to the traditional vector-based model. We then used the Getis-Ord Gi index to generate spatially smoothed heat risk hotspot maps from fine to coarse spatial scales. The raster-based model allowed production of maps at spatial resolution, more description of local-scale heat risk variability, and identification of heat-risk areas not identified with the vector-based approach. Spatial smoothing with the Getis-Ord Gi index produced heat risk hotspots from local to regional spatial scale. The approach is a framework for reducing spatial scale issues in future heat risk mapping, and for identifying heat risk hotspots at spatial scales ranging from the block-level to the municipality level. PMID:26694445

  4. Extremal entanglement witnesses

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hansen, Leif Ove; Hauge, Andreas; Myrheim, Jan; Sollid, Per Øyvind

    2015-02-01

    We present a study of extremal entanglement witnesses on a bipartite composite quantum system. We define the cone of witnesses as the dual of the set of separable density matrices, thus TrΩρ≥0 when Ω is a witness and ρ is a pure product state, ρ=ψψ† with ψ=ϕ⊗χ. The set of witnesses of unit trace is a compact convex set, uniquely defined by its extremal points. The expectation value f(ϕ,χ)=TrΩρ as a function of vectors ϕ and χ is a positive semidefinite biquadratic form. Every zero of f(ϕ,χ) imposes strong real-linear constraints on f and Ω. The real and symmetric Hessian matrix at the zero must be positive semidefinite. Its eigenvectors with zero eigenvalue, if such exist, we call Hessian zeros. A zero of f(ϕ,χ) is quadratic if it has no Hessian zeros, otherwise it is quartic. We call a witness quadratic if it has only quadratic zeros, and quartic if it has at least one quartic zero. A main result we prove is that a witness is extremal if and only if no other witness has the same, or a larger, set of zeros and Hessian zeros. A quadratic extremal witness has a minimum number of isolated zeros depending on dimensions. If a witness is not extremal, then the constraints defined by its zeros and Hessian zeros determine all directions in which we may search for witnesses having more zeros or Hessian zeros. A finite number of iterated searches in random directions, by numerical methods, leads to an extremal witness which is nearly always quadratic and has the minimum number of zeros. We discuss briefly some topics related to extremal witnesses, in particular the relation between the facial structures of the dual sets of witnesses and separable states. We discuss the relation between extremality and optimality of witnesses, and a conjecture of separability of the so-called structural physical approximation (SPA) of an optimal witness. Finally, we discuss how to treat the entanglement witnesses on a complex Hilbert space as a subset of the

  5. Adventure and Extreme Sports.

    PubMed

    Gomez, Andrew Thomas; Rao, Ashwin

    2016-03-01

    Adventure and extreme sports often involve unpredictable and inhospitable environments, high velocities, and stunts. These activities vary widely and include sports like BASE jumping, snowboarding, kayaking, and surfing. Increasing interest and participation in adventure and extreme sports warrants understanding by clinicians to facilitate prevention, identification, and treatment of injuries unique to each sport. This article covers alpine skiing and snowboarding, skateboarding, surfing, bungee jumping, BASE jumping, and whitewater sports with emphasis on epidemiology, demographics, general injury mechanisms, specific injuries, chronic injuries, fatality data, and prevention. Overall, most injuries are related to overuse, trauma, and environmental or microbial exposure.

  6. Extreme field science

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bulanov, S. V.; Esirkepov, T. Zh; Hayashi, Y.; Kando, M.; Kiriyama, H.; Koga, J. K.; Kondo, K.; Kotaki, H.; Pirozhkov, A. S.; Bulanov, S. S.; Zhidkov, A. G.; Rosanov, N. N.; Chen, P.; Neely, D.; Kato, Y.; Narozhny, N. B.; Korn, G.

    2011-12-01

    We discuss the progress in the development of extreme light sources that will open new horizons for studying a wide range of fundamental science and astrophysics problems. The regimes of dominant radiation reaction, which completely change the electromagnetic wave-matter interaction, will be revealed, resulting in a new extremely powerful source of ultrashort high-brightness gamma-ray pulses. The possibility of abundant electron-positron pair creation via multi-photon processes and the possibility of reaching the critical field of quantum electrodynamics, which would lead to vacuum polarization and breakdown, are attracting considerable attention.

  7. Closing the Gap on Measuring Heat Waves

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Perkins, S. E.; Alexander, L.

    2012-12-01

    Since the 4th IPCC assessment report, the scientific literature has established that anthropogenic climate change encompasses adverse changes in both mean climate conditions and extreme events, such as heat waves. Indeed, the affects of heat waves are felt across many different sectors, and have high economic, human, and physical impacts over many global regions. The spatial and monetary scale of heat wave impacts emphasizes the necessity of measuring and studying such events in an informative manner, which gives justice to the geographical region affected, the communities impacted, and the climatic fields involved. However, due to such wide interest in heat waves, their definition remains broad in describing a period of consecutive days where conditions are excessively hotter than normal. This has allowed for the employment of a plethora of metrics, which are usually unique to a given sector, or do not appropriately describe some of the important features of heat wave events. As such, it is difficult to ascertain a clear message regarding changes in heat waves, both in the observed record and in projections of future climate. This study addresses this issue by developing a multi-index, multi-aspect framework in which to measure heat waves. The methodology was constructed by assessing a wide range of heat wave and heat wave-related indices, both proposed and employed in the scientific literature. The broad implications of the occurrences, frequency and duration of heat waves and respective changes were also highly considered. The resulting indices measure three or more consecutive days where 1) maximum temperature exceeds the 90th percentile (TX90pct); 2) minimum temperature exceeds the 90th percentile (TN90pct); and 3) daily average temperature has a positive excess heat factor (EHF). The 90th percentiles from which TX90pct and TN90pct are calculated are based on 15-day windows for each calendar day, whereas the EHF is based upon two pre-calculated indices that

  8. Long-term variability of heat waves in Argentina and recurrence probability of the severe 2008 heat wave in Buenos Aires

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rusticucci, Matilde; Almeira, Gustavo; Pecho, Jozef; Kysely, Jan

    2013-04-01

    Heat waves are one of the main concerns related to the impacts of climate change because their frequency and severity are projected to increase in all projections of future climate. The objective of this work is to study the long-term variability in the occurrence of heat waves over Argentina. The number of days in heat waves per decade is analysed, considering spells of minimum temperature above the 90th percentile (MinTHW), maximum temperature above the 90th percentile (MaxTHW) and spells of days with both minimum and maximum temperature above the corresponding 90th percentile (EHW) for the October-March period. Decadal values in Buenos Aires experienced increases in all definitions of heat waves, but at other stations, the combination of different trends or decadal variability result in some cases in a decrease of extreme heat waves, as shown in Córdoba (central Argentina) and Las Lomitas (northern Argentina). In the northwestern part of the country, La Quiaca and Tinogasta show a strong change in the last decade, mainly due to the increment in the persistence of extreme MinTHW but also accompanied by increases in MaxTHW. In general, other stations show a clear positive trend in MinTHW and decadal variability in MaxTHW, with the largest EHW cases in the last decade. We also estimate recurrence probability of the longest and most severe heat wave in Buenos Aires (over 1909-2010, according to MaxTHW) that occurred from 3 to 14 November 2008. We use simulations with a stochastic autoregressive model that reproduces structure of the time series of daily maximum temperatures in Buenos Aires for (i) the recent climate and (ii) under several scenarios of possible future climate development based on climate models' projections. It is shown that the recurrence probability of such long and severe heat wave is likely to decline substantially in the near future even under a moderate warming trend.

  9. Climate Extremes and Society

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mote, Philip

    2009-10-01

    In October 2005, as the United States still was reeling from Hurricane Katrina in August and as the alphabet was too short to contain all of that year's named Atlantic tropical storms (Hurricane Wilma was forming near Jamaica), a timely workshop in Bermuda focused on climate extremes and society (see Eos, 87(3), 25, 17 January 2006). This edited volume, which corresponds roughly to the presentations given at that workshop, offers a fascinating look at the critically important intersection of acute climate stress and human vulnerabilities. A changing climate affects humans and other living things not through the variable that most robustly demonstrates the role of rising greenhouse gases—globally averaged temperature—but through local changes, especially changes in extremes. The first part of this book, “Defining and modeling the nature of weather and climate extremes,” focuses on natural science. The second part, “Impacts of weather and climate extremes,” focuses on societal impacts and responses, emphasizing an insurance industry perspective because a primary sponsor of the workshop was the Risk Prediction Initiative, whose aim is to “support scientific research on topics of interest to its sponsors” (p. 320).

  10. Hydrological extremes and security

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kundzewicz, Z. W.; Matczak, P.

    2015-04-01

    Economic losses caused by hydrological extremes - floods and droughts - have been on the rise. Hydrological extremes jeopardize human security and impact on societal livelihood and welfare. Security can be generally understood as freedom from threat and the ability of societies to maintain their independent identity and their functional integrity against forces of change. Several dimensions of security are reviewed in the context of hydrological extremes. The traditional interpretation of security, focused on the state military capabilities, has been replaced by a wider understanding, including economic, societal and environmental aspects that get increasing attention. Floods and droughts pose a burden and serious challenges to the state that is responsible for sustaining economic development, and societal and environmental security. The latter can be regarded as the maintenance of ecosystem services, on which a society depends. An important part of it is water security, which can be defined as the availability of an adequate quantity and quality of water for health, livelihoods, ecosystems and production, coupled with an acceptable level of water-related risks to people, environments and economies. Security concerns arise because, over large areas, hydrological extremes - floods and droughts - are becoming more frequent and more severe. In terms of dealing with water-related risks, climate change can increase uncertainties, which makes the state's task to deliver security more difficult and more expensive. However, changes in population size and development, and level of protection, drive exposure to hydrological hazards.

  11. Lower extremity orthoses.

    PubMed

    Bogucki, Artur

    2002-01-31

    This article presents the medical indications and contemporary technical capabilities in orthotic management of lower extremity. The classification included typical orthoses as well as devices that today constitute an integral part of modern therapeutic procedures are presented. Therapeutic success is conditioned by professional team-work of the physician, the therapist, the orthotic technician and the patient. PMID:17679908

  12. Lower extremity prostheses.

    PubMed

    Bogucki, A

    2001-01-01

    This article discusses the technical and medical difficulties involved in the proper fitting of prostheses on the lower extremity. The factors determining the success of a prosthesis include the quality of the stump, the skill of prosthesis socket fabrication, and the proper ordering of components, as well as rehabilitation supervised by experts and professional care for the amputee. PMID:17984917

  13. Biological Extreme Events: A Research Framework

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gutschick, Vincent P.; BassiriRad, Hormoz

    2010-03-01

    Efforts designed to understand and predict adaptation responses of organisms and populations to global climate change must make a clear distinction between responses to changes in average conditions (e.g., doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration accompanied by an average increase of 1°-3°C in global air temperature by the end of this century) and responses resulting from increased incidence of extreme events [Loehle and LeBlanc, 1996; Easterling et al., 2000; Garrett et al., 2006]. Such distinction is critical because, unlike changes in average conditions, extremes (e.g., megadroughts, fire, flooding, hurricanes, heat waves, and pest outbreaks) are typically short in duration but challenge organisms and populations considerably further beyond their ability to acclimate than those expected from average trends in climate changes. There is growing evidence that climatic extremes have been rising in frequency or magnitude during the last part of the twentieth century and will continue to increase during the remainder of this century [Easterling et al., 2000; Meehl et al., 2000; Parmesan and Yohe, 2003; Barnett et al., 2006]. More important, the frequency of extremes is likely to increase even if the climatic means do not change substantially [Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 2001, chapter 10]. Therefore, it makes sense to pay special attention to extremes as major agents of biological adaption (genetic change) when considering global climate change.

  14. Self organizing maps in urban heat stress projections

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Kyoung

    2016-04-01

    A self organizing map (SOM) is an unsupervised machine learning algorithm well suited for identifying patterns in large datasets. It has been used successfully to classify atmospheric states in climate data and as part of statistical downscaling procedures. This study aims to use SOMs to produce downscaled CMIP5-based projections of wet-bulb temperature in urban areas, taking into account the regional atmospheric state and learned local dynamics. These downscaled projections will be compared to the CMIP5 models as well as to observations and then used to project local extreme heat stress events in the future.

  15. The ClimaGrowing Footprint of Climate Change: Can Systems Built Today Cope with Tomorrow's Weather Extremes?

    SciTech Connect

    Kintner-Meyer, Michael CW; Kraucunas, Ian P.

    2013-07-11

    This article describes how current climate conditions--with increasingly extreme storms, droughts, and heat waves and their ensuing effects on water quality and levels--are adding stress to an already aging power grid. Moreover, it explains how evaluations of said grid, built upon past weather patterns, are inaqeduate for measuring if the nation's energy systems can cope with future climate changes. The authors make the case for investing in the development of robust, integrated electricity planning tools that account for these climate change factors as a means for enhancing electricity infrastructure resilience.

  16. THE EXTREME HOSTS OF EXTREME SUPERNOVAE

    SciTech Connect

    Neill, James D.; Quimby, Robert; Ofek, Eran; Wyder, Ted K.; Martin, D. Christopher; Barlow, Tom A.; Foster, Karl; Friedman, Peter G.; Morrissey, Patrick; Sullivan, Mark; Gal-Yam, Avishay; Howell, D. Andrew; Nugent, Peter; Seibert, Mark; Overzier, Roderik; Neff, Susan G.; Schiminovich, David; Bianchi, Luciana; Donas, Jose; Heckman, Timothy M.

    2011-01-20

    We use GALEX ultraviolet (UV) and optical integrated photometry of the hosts of 17 luminous supernovae (LSNe, having peak M{sub V} < -21) and compare them to a sample of 26, 000 galaxies from a cross-match between the SDSS DR4 spectral catalog and GALEX interim release 1.1. We place the LSN hosts on the galaxy NUV - r versus M{sub r} color-magnitude diagram (CMD) with the larger sample to illustrate how extreme they are. The LSN hosts appear to favor low-density regions of the galaxy CMD falling on the blue edge of the blue cloud toward the low-luminosity end. From the UV-optical photometry, we estimate the star formation history of the LSN hosts. The hosts have moderately low star formation rates (SFRs) and low stellar masses (M{sub *}) resulting in high specific star formation rates (sSFR). Compared with the larger sample, the LSN hosts occupy low-density regions of a diagram plotting sSFR versus M{sub *} in the area having higher sSFR and lower M{sub *}. This preference for low M{sub *}, high sSFR hosts implies that the LSNe are produced by an effect having to do with their local environment. The correlation of mass with metallicity suggests that perhaps wind-driven mass loss is the factor that prevents LSNe from arising in higher-mass, higher-metallicity hosts. The massive progenitors of the LSNe (>100 M{sub sun}), by appearing in low-SFR hosts, are potential tests for theories of the initial mass function that limit the maximum mass of a star based on the SFR.

  17. Future accelerators (?)

    SciTech Connect

    John Womersley

    2003-08-21

    I describe the future accelerator facilities that are currently foreseen for electroweak scale physics, neutrino physics, and nuclear structure. I will explore the physics justification for these machines, and suggest how the case for future accelerators can be made.

  18. Overview of the biology of extreme events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gutschick, V. P.; Bassirirad, H.

    2008-12-01

    Extreme events have, variously, meteorological origins as in heat waves or precipitation extremes, or biological origins as in pest and disease eruptions (or tectonic, earth-orbital, or impact-body origins). Despite growing recognition that these events are changing in frequency and intensity, a universal model of ecological responses to these events is slow to emerge. Extreme events, negative and positive, contrast with normal events in terms of their effects on the physiology, ecology, and evolution of organisms, hence also on water, carbon, and nutrient cycles. They structure biogeographic ranges and biomes, almost surely more than mean values often used to define biogeography. They are challenging to study for obvious reasons of field-readiness but also because they are defined by sequences of driving variables such as temperature, not point events. As sequences, their statistics (return times, for example) are challenging to develop, as also from the involvement of multiple environmental variables. These statistics are not captured well by climate models. They are expected to change with climate and land-use change but our predictive capacity is currently limited. A number of tools for description and analysis of extreme events are available, if not widely applied to date. Extremes for organisms are defined by their fitness effects on those organisms, and are specific to genotypes, making them major agents of natural selection. There is evidence that effects of extreme events may be concentrated in an extended recovery phase. We review selected events covering ranges of time and magnitude, from Snowball Earth to leaf functional loss in weather events. A number of events, such as the 2003 European heat wave, evidence effects on water and carbon cycles over large regions. Rising CO2 is the recent extreme of note, for its climatic effects and consequences for growing seasons, transpiration, etc., but also directly in its action as a substrate of photosynthesis

  19. Effects of extreme weather on human health: methodology review

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, R.; Liss, A.; Naumova, E. N.

    2012-12-01

    This work critically evaluates current methodology applied to estimate the effects of extreme weather events (EWE) on human health. Specifically, we focus on uncertainties associated with: a) the main statistical approaches for estimating the effects of EWE, b) definitions of health outcomes and EWE, and c) possible sources of errors and biases in currently available data sets. The EWE, which include heat waves, cold spells, ice storms, flood, drought and tornadoes, are known for their massive effects on ecosystems, economies, infrastructures. In particular, human lives and health are frequently impacted by EWE; however, the estimate of such effects is complex and lacks a systematic methodology. An accurate and reliable estimate of health impacts is critical for developing preparedness and effective prevention strategies, better allocating scarce resources for mitigating negative impacts of EWE, and detecting vulnerable populations and regions in a timely manner. We reviewed 82 manuscripts published between 1993 and 2011, selected from MedPub and Medline databases using predetermined sets of keywords, such as extreme weather, mortality, morbidity and hospitalization. We classified publications based on their geographical locations, types of included health outcomes, methods for detecting EWE and statistical methodology employed to determine the presence and magnitude of EWE associated health outcomes. We determined that 57% of the reviewed manuscripts applied time-series analysis and the associations analysis and were conducted in temperate regions of the US, Canada, Korea, Japan and Europe respectively. About 60% of reviewed studies focused primarily on mortality data, 30% on morbidity outcomes and 9% studied both mortality and morbidity with respect to direct effects of extreme heat waves and cold spells. A wide range of EWE definitions were employed in those manuscripts, which limited the ability to compare the results to a certain degree. We observed at least

  20. Heat accumulator

    SciTech Connect

    Bracht, A.

    1981-09-29

    A heat accumulator comprises a thermally-insulated reservoir full of paraffin wax mixture or other flowable or meltable heat storage mass, heat-exchangers immersed in the mass, a heat-trap connected to one of the heat-exchangers, and a heat user connected to the other heat-exchanger. Pumps circulate fluids through the heat-trap and the heat-using means and the respective heat-exchangers, and a stirrer agitates and circulates the mass, and the pumps and the stirrer and electric motors driving these devices are all immersed in the mass.

  1. Climate impacts on extreme energy consumption of different types of buildings.

    PubMed

    Li, Mingcai; Shi, Jun; Guo, Jun; Cao, Jingfu; Niu, Jide; Xiong, Mingming

    2015-01-01

    Exploring changes of building energy consumption and its relationships with climate can provide basis for energy-saving and carbon emission reduction. Heating and cooling energy consumption of different types of buildings during 1981-2010 in Tianjin city, was simulated by using TRNSYS software. Daily or hourly extreme energy consumption was determined by percentile methods, and the climate impact on extreme energy consumption was analyzed. The results showed that days of extreme heating consumption showed apparent decrease during the recent 30 years for residential and large venue buildings, whereas days of extreme cooling consumption increased in large venue building. No significant variations were found for the days of extreme energy consumption for commercial building, although a decreasing trend in extreme heating energy consumption. Daily extreme energy consumption for large venue building had no relationship with climate parameters, whereas extreme energy consumption for commercial and residential buildings was related to various climate parameters. Further multiple regression analysis suggested heating energy consumption for commercial building was affected by maximum temperature, dry bulb temperature, solar radiation and minimum temperature, which together can explain 71.5 % of the variation of the daily extreme heating energy consumption. The daily extreme cooling energy consumption for commercial building was only related to the wet bulb temperature (R2= 0.382). The daily extreme heating energy consumption for residential building was affected by 4 climate parameters, but the dry bulb temperature had the main impact. The impacts of climate on hourly extreme heating energy consumption has a 1-3 hour delay in all three types of buildings, but no delay was found in the impacts of climate on hourly extreme cooling energy consumption for the selected buildings.

  2. Climate impacts on extreme energy consumption of different types of buildings.

    PubMed

    Li, Mingcai; Shi, Jun; Guo, Jun; Cao, Jingfu; Niu, Jide; Xiong, Mingming

    2015-01-01

    Exploring changes of building energy consumption and its relationships with climate can provide basis for energy-saving and carbon emission reduction. Heating and cooling energy consumption of different types of buildings during 1981-2010 in Tianjin city, was simulated by using TRNSYS software. Daily or hourly extreme energy consumption was determined by percentile methods, and the climate impact on extreme energy consumption was analyzed. The results showed that days of extreme heating consumption showed apparent decrease during the recent 30 years for residential and large venue buildings, whereas days of extreme cooling consumption increased in large venue building. No significant variations were found for the days of extreme energy consumption for commercial building, although a decreasing trend in extreme heating energy consumption. Daily extreme energy consumption for large venue building had no relationship with climate parameters, whereas extreme energy consumption for commercial and residential buildings was related to various climate parameters. Further multiple regression analysis suggested heating energy consumption for commercial building was affected by maximum temperature, dry bulb temperature, solar radiation and minimum temperature, which together can explain 71.5 % of the variation of the daily extreme heating energy consumption. The daily extreme cooling energy consumption for commercial building was only related to the wet bulb temperature (R2= 0.382). The daily extreme heating energy consumption for residential building was affected by 4 climate parameters, but the dry bulb temperature had the main impact. The impacts of climate on hourly extreme heating energy consumption has a 1-3 hour delay in all three types of buildings, but no delay was found in the impacts of climate on hourly extreme cooling energy consumption for the selected buildings. PMID:25923205

  3. Extremal quantum cloning machines

    SciTech Connect

    Chiribella, G.; D'Ariano, G. M.; Perinotti, P.; Cerf, N.J.

    2005-10-15

    We investigate the problem of cloning a set of states that is invariant under the action of an irreducible group representation. We then characterize the cloners that are extremal in the convex set of group covariant cloning machines, among which one can restrict the search for optimal cloners. For a set of states that is invariant under the discrete Weyl-Heisenberg group, we show that all extremal cloners can be unitarily realized using the so-called double-Bell states, whence providing a general proof of the popular ansatz used in the literature for finding optimal cloners in a variety of settings. Our result can also be generalized to continuous-variable optimal cloning in infinite dimensions, where the covariance group is the customary Weyl-Heisenberg group of displacement000.

  4. Tibetans at extreme altitude.

    PubMed

    Wu, Tianyi; Li, Shupin; Ward, Michal P

    2005-01-01

    Between 1960 and 2003, 13 Chinese expeditions successfully reached the summit of Chomolungma (Mt Everest or Sagarmatha). Forty-five of the 80 summiteers were Tibetan highlanders. During these and other high-altitude expeditions in Tibet, a series of medical and physiological investigations were carried out on the Tibetan mountaineers. The results suggest that these individuals are better adapted to high altitude and that, at altitude, they have a greater physical capacity than Han (ethnic Chinese) lowland newcomers. They have higher maximal oxygen uptake, greater ventilation, more brisk hypoxic ventilatory responses, larger lung volumes, greater diffusing capacities, and a better quality of sleep. Tibetans also have a lower incidence of acute mountain sickness and less body weight loss. These differences appear to represent genetic adaptations and are obviously significant for humans at extreme altitude. This paper reviews what is known about the physiologic responses of Tibetans at extreme altitudes.

  5. Penetrating extremity trauma.

    PubMed

    Ivatury, Rao R; Anand, Rahul; Ordonez, Carlos

    2015-06-01

    Penetrating extremity trauma (PET) usually becomes less important when present along with multiple truncal injuries. The middle eastern wars documented the terrible mortality and morbidity resulting from PET. Even in civilian trauma, PET can lead to significant morbidity and mortality. There are now well-established principles in the evaluation and management of vascular, bony, soft tissue, and neurologic lesions that will lead to a reduction of the poor outcomes. This review will summarize some of these recent concepts.

  6. On extreme geomagnetic storms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cid, Consuelo; Palacios, Judith; Saiz, Elena; Guerrero, Antonio; Cerrato, Yolanda

    2014-10-01

    Extreme geomagnetic storms are considered as one of the major natural hazards for technology-dependent society. Geomagnetic field disturbances can disrupt the operation of critical infrastructures relying on space-based assets, and can also result in terrestrial effects, such as the Quebec electrical disruption in 1989. Forecasting potential hazards is a matter of high priority, but considering large flares as the only criterion for early-warning systems has demonstrated to release a large amount of false alarms and misses. Moreover, the quantification of the severity of the geomagnetic disturbance at the terrestrial surface using indices as Dst cannot be considered as the best approach to give account of the damage in utilities. High temporal resolution local indices come out as a possible solution to this issue, as disturbances recorded at the terrestrial surface differ largely both in latitude and longitude. The recovery phase of extreme storms presents also some peculiar features which make it different from other less intense storms. This paper goes through all these issues related to extreme storms by analysing a few events, highlighting the March 1989 storm, related to the Quebec blackout, and the October 2003 event, when several transformers burnt out in South Africa.

  7. Effects of Autumn and Spring Heat Waves on Seed Germination of High Mountain Plants.

    PubMed

    Orsenigo, Simone; Abeli, Thomas; Rossi, Graziano; Bonasoni, Paolo; Pasquaretta, Cristian; Gandini, Maurizia; Mondoni, Andrea

    2015-01-01

    Alpine plants are considered to be particularly vulnerable to climate change and related extreme episodes, such as heat waves. Despite growing interest in the impact of heat waves on alpine plants, knowledge about their effects on regeneration is still fragmentary. Recruitment from seeds will be crucial for the successful migration and survival of these species and will play a key role in their future adaptation to climate change. In this study, we assessed the impacts of heat waves on the seed germination of 53 high mountain plants from the Northern Apennines (Italy). The seeds were exposed to laboratory simulations of three seasonal temperature treatments, derived from real data recorded at a meteorological station near the species growing site, which included two heat wave episodes that occurred both in spring 2003 and in autumn 2011. Moreover, to consider the effect of increasing drought conditions related to heat waves, seed germination was also investigated under four different water potentials. In the absence of heat waves, seed germination mainly occurred in spring, after seeds had experienced autumn and winter seasons. However, heat waves resulted in a significant increase of spring germination in c. 30% of the species and elicited autumn germination in 50%. When heat waves were coupled with drought, seed germination decreased in all species, but did not stop completely. Our results suggest that in the future, heat waves will affect the germination phenology of alpine plants, especially conditionally dormant and strictly cold-adapted chorotypes, by shifting the emergence time from spring to autumn and by increasing the proportion of emerged seedlings. The detrimental effects of heat waves on recruitment success is less likely to be due to the inhibition of seed germination per se, but rather due to seedling survival in seasons, and temperature and water conditions that they are not used to experiencing. Changes in the proportion and timing of emergence

  8. Effects of Autumn and Spring Heat Waves on Seed Germination of High Mountain Plants.

    PubMed

    Orsenigo, Simone; Abeli, Thomas; Rossi, Graziano; Bonasoni, Paolo; Pasquaretta, Cristian; Gandini, Maurizia; Mondoni, Andrea

    2015-01-01

    Alpine plants are considered to be particularly vulnerable to climate change and related extreme episodes, such as heat waves. Despite growing interest in the impact of heat waves on alpine plants, knowledge about their effects on regeneration is still fragmentary. Recruitment from seeds will be crucial for the successful migration and survival of these species and will play a key role in their future adaptation to climate change. In this study, we assessed the impacts of heat waves on the seed germination of 53 high mountain plants from the Northern Apennines (Italy). The seeds were exposed to laboratory simulations of three seasonal temperature treatments, derived from real data recorded at a meteorological station near the species growing site, which included two heat wave episodes that occurred both in spring 2003 and in autumn 2011. Moreover, to consider the effect of increasing drought conditions related to heat waves, seed germination was also investigated under four different water potentials. In the absence of heat waves, seed germination mainly occurred in spring, after seeds had experienced autumn and winter seasons. However, heat waves resulted in a significant increase of spring germination in c. 30% of the species and elicited autumn germination in 50%. When heat waves were coupled with drought, seed germination decreased in all species, but did not stop completely. Our results suggest that in the future, heat waves will affect the germination phenology of alpine plants, especially conditionally dormant and strictly cold-adapted chorotypes, by shifting the emergence time from spring to autumn and by increasing the proportion of emerged seedlings. The detrimental effects of heat waves on recruitment success is less likely to be due to the inhibition of seed germination per se, but rather due to seedling survival in seasons, and temperature and water conditions that they are not used to experiencing. Changes in the proportion and timing of emergence

  9. Changes of western European heat wave characteristics projected by the CMIP5 ensemble

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schoetter, Robert; Cattiaux, Julien; Douville, Hervé

    2015-09-01

    We investigate heat waves defined as periods of at least 3 consecutive days of extremely high daily maximum temperature affecting at least 30 % of western Europe. This definition has been chosen to select heat waves that might impact western European electricity supply. Even though not all such heat waves threaten it, the definition allows to identify a sufficient number of events, the strongest being potentially harmful. The heat waves are characterised by their duration, spatial extent, intensity and severity. The heat wave characteristics are calculated for historical and future climate based on results of climate model simulations conducted during the 5th Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The uncertainty of future anthropogenic forcing is taken into account by analysing results for the Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The historical simulations are evaluated against the EOBS gridded station data. The CMIP5 ensemble median captures well the observed mean heat wave characteristics. However, no model simulates a heat wave as severe as observed during August 2003. Under future climate conditions, the heat waves become more frequent and have higher mean duration, extent and intensity. The ensemble spread is larger than the scenario uncertainty. The shift of the temperature distribution is more important for the increase of the cumulative heat wave severity than the broadening of the temperature distribution. However, the broadening leads to an amplification of the cumulative heat wave severity by a factor of 1.7 for RCP4.5 and 1.5 for RCP8.5.

  10. Effects of Autumn and Spring Heat Waves on Seed Germination of High Mountain Plants

    PubMed Central

    Orsenigo, Simone; Abeli, Thomas; Rossi, Graziano; Bonasoni, Paolo; Pasquaretta, Cristian; Gandini, Maurizia; Mondoni, Andrea

    2015-01-01

    Alpine plants are considered to be particularly vulnerable to climate change and related extreme episodes, such as heat waves. Despite growing interest in the impact of heat waves on alpine plants, knowledge about their effects on regeneration is still fragmentary. Recruitment from seeds will be crucial for the successful migration and survival of these species and will play a key role in their future adaptation to climate change. In this study, we assessed the impacts of heat waves on the seed germination of 53 high mountain plants from the Northern Apennines (Italy). The seeds were exposed to laboratory simulations of three seasonal temperature treatments, derived from real data recorded at a meteorological station near the species growing site, which included two heat wave episodes that occurred both in spring 2003 and in autumn 2011. Moreover, to consider the effect of increasing drought conditions related to heat waves, seed germination was also investigated under four different water potentials. In the absence of heat waves, seed germination mainly occurred in spring, after seeds had experienced autumn and winter seasons. However, heat waves resulted in a significant increase of spring germination in c. 30% of the species and elicited autumn germination in 50%. When heat waves were coupled with drought, seed germination decreased in all species, but did not stop completely. Our results suggest that in the future, heat waves will affect the germination phenology of alpine plants, especially conditionally dormant and strictly cold-adapted chorotypes, by shifting the emergence time from spring to autumn and by increasing the proportion of emerged seedlings. The detrimental effects of heat waves on recruitment success is less likely to be due to the inhibition of seed germination per se, but rather due to seedling survival in seasons, and temperature and water conditions that they are not used to experiencing. Changes in the proportion and timing of emergence

  11. Addressing Extremes within the WCRP - GEWEX Framework

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van Oevelen, P. J.; Stewart, R.; Detemmerman, V.

    2008-12-01

    For large international coordination programs such as the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) as part of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) it is difficult to strike a good balance between enabling as much international involvement as is possible and desirable and the achievability of the objectives. WCRP has decided that "Extremes Research" is one of several areas where it would like to see its efforts strengthened and scientific research pushed forward. The foci that are being selected should be phrased such that they are practical and achievable within a time span of 1 to 3 years. Preferably these foci build upon the expertise from cross WCRP activities and are not restricted to single core project activities. In this presentation an overview will be given of the various activities within GEWEX that are related to extremes and which ones would be most ideal to be addressed as WCRP foci from a GEWEX perspective. The rationale and context of extreme research will be presented as well links