Science.gov

Sample records for future heat extremes

  1. Extreme Heat

    MedlinePlus

    ... Emergencies Biological Threats Chemical Threats Cyber Incident Drought Earthquakes Extreme Heat Explosions Floods Hazardous Materials Incidents Home ... Emergencies Biological Threats Chemical Threats Cyber ... Heat Explosions Floods Hazardous Materials Incidents Home ...

  2. Elevated CO2 maintains grassland net carbon uptake under a future heat and drought extreme

    PubMed Central

    Roy, Jacques; Picon-Cochard, Catherine; Augusti, Angela; Benot, Marie-Lise; Thiery, Lionel; Darsonville, Olivier; Landais, Damien; Piel, Clément; Defossez, Marc; Devidal, Sébastien; Escape, Christophe; Ravel, Olivier; Fromin, Nathalie; Volaire, Florence; Milcu, Alexandru; Bahn, Michael; Soussana, Jean-François

    2016-01-01

    Extreme climatic events (ECEs) such as droughts and heat waves are predicted to increase in intensity and frequency and impact the terrestrial carbon balance. However, we lack direct experimental evidence of how the net carbon uptake of ecosystems is affected by ECEs under future elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations (eCO2). Taking advantage of an advanced controlled environment facility for ecosystem research (Ecotron), we simulated eCO2 and extreme cooccurring heat and drought events as projected for the 2050s and analyzed their effects on the ecosystem-level carbon and water fluxes in a C3 grassland. Our results indicate that eCO2 not only slows down the decline of ecosystem carbon uptake during the ECE but also enhances its recovery after the ECE, as mediated by increases of root growth and plant nitrogen uptake induced by the ECE. These findings indicate that, in the predicted near future climate, eCO2 could mitigate the effects of extreme droughts and heat waves on ecosystem net carbon uptake. PMID:27185934

  3. Elevated CO2 maintains grassland net carbon uptake under a future heat and drought extreme.

    PubMed

    Roy, Jacques; Picon-Cochard, Catherine; Augusti, Angela; Benot, Marie-Lise; Thiery, Lionel; Darsonville, Olivier; Landais, Damien; Piel, Clément; Defossez, Marc; Devidal, Sébastien; Escape, Christophe; Ravel, Olivier; Fromin, Nathalie; Volaire, Florence; Milcu, Alexandru; Bahn, Michael; Soussana, Jean-François

    2016-05-31

    Extreme climatic events (ECEs) such as droughts and heat waves are predicted to increase in intensity and frequency and impact the terrestrial carbon balance. However, we lack direct experimental evidence of how the net carbon uptake of ecosystems is affected by ECEs under future elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations (eCO2). Taking advantage of an advanced controlled environment facility for ecosystem research (Ecotron), we simulated eCO2 and extreme cooccurring heat and drought events as projected for the 2050s and analyzed their effects on the ecosystem-level carbon and water fluxes in a C3 grassland. Our results indicate that eCO2 not only slows down the decline of ecosystem carbon uptake during the ECE but also enhances its recovery after the ECE, as mediated by increases of root growth and plant nitrogen uptake induced by the ECE. These findings indicate that, in the predicted near future climate, eCO2 could mitigate the effects of extreme droughts and heat waves on ecosystem net carbon uptake.

  4. Extreme Heat Guidebook

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The 'Climate Change and Extreme Heat: What You Can Do to Prepare' handbook explains the connection between climate change and extreme heat events, and outlines actions citizens can take to protect their health during extreme heat.

  5. Global crop yield response to extreme heat stress under multiple climate change futures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Deryng, Delphine; Conway, Declan; Ramankutty, Navin; Price, Jeff; Warren, Rachel

    2014-03-01

    Extreme heat stress during the crop reproductive period can be critical for crop productivity. Projected changes in the frequency and severity of extreme climatic events are expected to negatively impact crop yields and global food production. This study applies the global crop model PEGASUS to quantify, for the first time at the global scale, impacts of extreme heat stress on maize, spring wheat and soybean yields resulting from 72 climate change scenarios for the 21st century. Our results project maize to face progressively worse impacts under a range of RCPs but spring wheat and soybean to improve globally through to the 2080s due to CO2 fertilization effects, even though parts of the tropic and sub-tropic regions could face substantial yield declines. We find extreme heat stress at anthesis (HSA) by the 2080s (relative to the 1980s) under RCP 8.5, taking into account CO2 fertilization effects, could double global losses of maize yield (ΔY = -12.8 ± 6.7% versus - 7.0 ± 5.3% without HSA), reduce projected gains in spring wheat yield by half (ΔY = 34.3 ± 13.5% versus 72.0 ± 10.9% without HSA) and in soybean yield by a quarter (ΔY = 15.3 ± 26.5% versus 20.4 ± 22.1% without HSA). The range reflects uncertainty due to differences between climate model scenarios; soybean exhibits both positive and negative impacts, maize is generally negative and spring wheat generally positive. Furthermore, when assuming CO2 fertilization effects to be negligible, we observe drastic climate mitigation policy as in RCP 2.6 could avoid more than 80% of the global average yield losses otherwise expected by the 2080s under RCP 8.5. We show large disparities in climate impacts across regions and find extreme heat stress adversely affects major producing regions and lower income countries.

  6. Global crop yield response to extreme heat stress under multiple climate change futures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Deryng, D.; Conway, D.; Ramankutty, N.; Price, J.; Warren, R.

    2014-12-01

    Extreme heat stress during the crop reproductive period can be critical for crop productivity. Projected changes in the frequency and severity of extreme climatic events are expected to negatively impact crop yields and global food production. This study applies the global crop model PEGASUS to quantify, for the first time at the global scale, impacts of extreme heat stress on maize, spring wheat and soybean yields resulting from 72 climate change scenarios for the 21st century. Our results project maize to face progressively worse impacts under a range of RCPs but spring wheat and soybean to improve globally through to the 2080s due to CO2 fertilization effects, even though parts of the tropic and sub-tropic regions could face substantial yield declines. We find extreme heat stress at anthesis (HSA) by the 2080s (relative to the 1980s) under RCP 8.5, taking into account CO2 fertilization effects, could double global losses of maize yield (dY = -12.8 ± 6.7% versus -7.0 ± 5.3% without HSA), reduce projected gains in spring wheat yield by half (dY = 34.3 ± 13.5% versus 72.0 ± 10.9% without HSA) and in soybean yield by a quarter (dY = 15.3 ± 26.5% versus 20.4 ± 22.1% without HSA). The range reflects uncertainty due to differences between climate model scenarios; soybean exhibits both positive and negative impacts, maize is generally negative and spring wheat generally positive. Furthermore, when assuming CO2 fertilization effects to be negligible, we observe drastic climate mitigation policy as in RCP 2.6 could avoid more than 80% of the global average yield losses otherwise expected by the 2080s under RCP 8.5. We show large disparities in climate impacts across regions and find extreme heat stress adversely affects major producing regions and lower income countries.

  7. Future Extreme Heat Scenarios to Enable the Assessment of Climate Impacts on Public Health over the Coterminous U.S

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Quattrochi, D. A.; Crosson, W. L.; Al-Hamdan, M. Z.; Estes, M. G., Jr.

    2013-12-01

    In the United States, extreme heat is the most deadly weather-related hazard. In the face of a warming climate and urbanization, which contributes to local-scale urban heat islands, it is very likely that extreme heat events (EHEs) will become more common and more severe in the U.S. This research seeks to provide historical and future measures of climate-driven extreme heat events to enable assessments of the impacts of heat on public health over the coterminous U.S. We use atmospheric temperature and humidity information from meteorological reanalysis and from Global Climate Models (GCMs) to provide data on past and future heat events. The focus of research is on providing assessments of the magnitude, frequency and geographic distribution of extreme heat in the U.S. to facilitate public health studies. In our approach, long-term climate change is captured with GCM outputs, and the temporal and spatial characteristics of short-term extremes are represented by the reanalysis data. Two future time horizons for 2040 and 2090 are compared to the recent past period of 1981-2000. We characterize regional-scale temperature and humidity conditions using GCM outputs for two climate change scenarios (A2 and A1B) defined in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). For each future period, 20 years of multi-model GCM outputs are analyzed to develop a ';heat stress climatology' based on statistics of extreme heat indicators. Differences between the two future and the past period are used to define temperature and humidity changes on a monthly time scale and regional spatial scale. These changes are combined with the historical meteorological data, which is hourly and at a spatial scale (12 km) much finer than that of GCMs, to create future climate realizations. From these realizations, we compute the daily heat stress measures and related spatially-specific climatological fields, such as the mean annual number of days above certain thresholds of maximum and minimum air

  8. Future Extreme Heat Scenarios to Enable the Assessment of Climate Impacts on Public Health over the Coterminous U.S.

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Quattrochi, Dale A.; Crosson, William L.; Al-Hamdan, Mohammad Z.; Estes, Maurice G., Jr.

    2013-01-01

    In the United States, extreme heat is the most deadly weather-related hazard. In the face of a warming climate and urbanization, which contributes to local-scale urban heat islands, it is very likely that extreme heat events (EHEs) will become more common and more severe in the U.S. This research seeks to provide historical and future measures of climate-driven extreme heat events to enable assessments of the impacts of heat on public health over the coterminous U.S. We use atmospheric temperature and humidity information from meteorological reanalysis and from Global Climate Models (GCMs) to provide data on past and future heat events. The focus of research is on providing assessments of the magnitude, frequency and geographic distribution of extreme heat in the U.S. to facilitate public health studies. In our approach, long-term climate change is captured with GCM outputs, and the temporal and spatial characteristics of short-term extremes are represented by the reanalysis data. Two future time horizons for 2040 and 2090 are compared to the recent past period of 1981- 2000. We characterize regional-scale temperature and humidity conditions using GCM outputs for two climate change scenarios (A2 and A1B) defined in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). For each future period, 20 years of multi-model GCM outputs are analyzed to develop a 'heat stress climatology' based on statistics of extreme heat indicators. Differences between the two future and the past period are used to define temperature and humidity changes on a monthly time scale and regional spatial scale. These changes are combined with the historical meteorological data, which is hourly and at a spatial scale (12 km), to create future climate realizations. From these realizations, we compute the daily heat stress measures and related spatially-specific climatological fields, such as the mean annual number of days above certain thresholds of maximum and minimum air temperatures, heat indices

  9. The Weather of the Future: Heat Waves, Extreme Storms, and Other Scenes from a Climate-Changed Planet

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cullen, H. M.

    2010-12-01

    In The Weather of the Future, Dr. Heidi Cullen puts a vivid face on climate change, offering a new way of seeing this phenomenon not just as an event set to happen in the distant future but as something happening right now in our own backyards. Arguing that we must connect the weather of today with the climate change of tomorrow, Cullen combines the latest research from scientists on the ground with state-of-the-art climate model projections to create climate-change scenarios for seven of the most at-risk locations around the world. From the Central Valley of California, where coming droughts will jeopardize the entire state’s water supply, to Greenland, where warmer temperatures will give access to mineral wealth buried beneath ice sheets for millennia, Cullen illustrates how, if left unabated, climate change will transform every corner of the world by midcentury. What emerges is a mosaic of changing weather patterns that collectively spell out the range of risks posed by global warming—whether it’s New York City, whose infrastructure is extremely vulnerable even to a relatively weak Category 3 hurricane or to Bangladesh, a country so low-lying that millions of people could become climate refugees thanks to rising sea levels. The Weather of the Future makes climate change local, showing how no two regions of the country or the world will be affected in quite the same way and demonstrating that melting ice is just the beginning.

  10. Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ) about Extreme Heat

    MedlinePlus

    ... About CDC.gov . Natural Disasters and Severe Weather Earthquakes Being Prepared Emergency Supplies Home Hazards Indoor Safety ... Matters What's New Preparation & Planning Disasters & Severe Weather Earthquakes Extreme Heat Floods Hurricanes Landslides Tornadoes Tsunamis Volcanoes ...

  11. The future intensification of hourly precipitation extremes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Prein, Andreas F.; Rasmussen, Roy M.; Ikeda, Kyoko; Liu, Changhai; Clark, Martyn P.; Holland, Greg J.

    2017-01-01

    Extreme precipitation intensities have increased in all regions of the Contiguous United States (CONUS) and are expected to further increase with warming at scaling rates of about 7% per degree Celsius (ref. ), suggesting a significant increase of flash flood hazards due to climate change. However, the scaling rates between extreme precipitation and temperature are strongly dependent on the region, temperature, and moisture availability, which inhibits simple extrapolation of the scaling rate from past climate data into the future. Here we study observed and simulated changes in local precipitation extremes over the CONUS by analysing a very high resolution (4 km horizontal grid spacing) current and high-end climate scenario that realistically simulates hourly precipitation extremes. We show that extreme precipitation is increasing with temperature in moist, energy-limited, environments and decreases abruptly in dry, moisture-limited, environments. This novel framework explains the large variability in the observed and modelled scaling rates and helps with understanding the significant frequency and intensity increases in future hourly extreme precipitation events and their interaction with larger scales.

  12. Predicting Indoor Heat Exposure Risk during Extreme Heat Events

    PubMed Central

    Quinn, Ashlinn; Tamerius, James D.; Perzanowski, Matthew; Jacobson, Judith S.; Goldstein, Inge; Acosta, Luis; Shaman, Jeffrey

    2014-01-01

    Increased heat-related morbidity and mortality are expected direct consequences of global warming. In the developed world, most fatal heat exposures occur in the indoor home environment, yet little is known of the correspondence between outdoor and indoor heat. Here we show how summertime indoor heat and humidity measurements from 285 low- and middle-income New York City homes vary as a function of concurrent local outdoor conditions. Indoor temperatures and heat index levels were both found to have strong positive linear associations with their outdoor counterparts; however, among the sampled homes a broad range of indoor conditions manifested for the same outdoor conditions. Using these models, we simulated indoor conditions for two extreme events: the 10-day 2006 NYC heat wave and a 9-day event analogous to the more extreme 2003 Paris heat wave. These simulations indicate that many homes in New York City would experience dangerously high indoor heat index levels during extreme heat events. These findings also suggest that increasing numbers of NYC low- and middle-income households will be exposed to heat index conditions above important thresholds should the severity of heat waves increase with global climate change. The study highlights the urgent need for improved indoor temperature and humidity management. PMID:24893319

  13. Keeping Cool in Extreme Heat

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2001-01-01

    Through a partnership with Unitika Ltd., NASA's Langley Research Center created a foam based on high temperature resistant polyimide chemistry. Licensed non-exclusively to SORDAL, Inc., the low-density foam, named TEEK, can be processed into forms or used to fill structures such as honeycomb. TEEK offers superior insulation and support qualities, with heat and flame resistance abilities.TEEK is a practical selection for hull insulation in the shipbuilding industry, with numerous potential applications in aerospace applications, fire-resistant construction materials, and a wide range of consumer products that will improve safety and energy efficiency. Other opportunities are available in the areas of automotive coatings and sealants, electrical components, and recreational equipment. SORDAL has introduced its new product in several different forms, under the name "SOLREX". The company is developing a new product called SORDAL Paper(TM) that will be used in conjunction with the polyimide foam to offer thermal protection in various products, such as fire resistant garments and prosthetics.

  14. Extreme Convective Weather in Future Decades

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gadian, Alan; Burton, Ralph; Groves, James; Blyth, Alan; Warner, James; Holland, Greg; Bruyere, Cindy; Done, James; Thielen, Jutta

    2016-04-01

    WISER (Weather Climate Change Impact Study at Extreme Resolution) is a project designed to analyse changes in extreme weather events in a future climate, using a weather model (WRF) which is able to resolve small scale processes. Use of a weather model is specifically designed to look at convection which is of a scale which cannot be resolved by climate models. The regional meso-scale precipitation events, which are critical in understanding climate change impacts will be analysed. A channel domain outer model, with a resolution of ~ 20km in the outer domain drives an inner domain of ~ 3 km resolution. Results from 1989-1994 and 2020-2024 and 2030-2034 will be presented to show the effects of extreme convective events over Western Europe. This presentation will provide details of the project. It will present data from the 1989-1994 ERA-interim and CCSM driven simulations, with analysis of the future years as defined above. The representation of pdfs of extreme precipitation, Outgoing Longwave Radiation and wind speeds, with preliminary comparison with observations will be discussed. It is also planned to use the output to drive the EFAS (European Flood model) to examine the predicted changes in quantity and frequency of severe and hazardous convective rainfall events and leading to the frequency of flash flooding due to heavy convective precipitation.

  15. Bubble heating in Extreme Cooling Clusters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Allen, Steven

    2007-09-01

    Our proposal targets `extreme cooling' clusters: those systems with the largest, fastest cooling rates that most severely challenge the AGN-heating paradigm for cluster cores. By targeting two X-ray bright `extreme cooling cluters' with the clearest radio bubbles in their cores, we seek to establish whether it is possible for AGN heating to balance cooling in such systems. If cooling is not balanced by some heat source, then large residual cooling rates should be detectable in the spectral X-ray data. We will measure the bubble properties precisely and map the spatial-spectral structure of the surrounding X-ray gas, searching for ghost bubbles, shocks, ripples, fronts and non-thermal emission.

  16. Recent and future extreme precipitation over Ukraine

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vyshkvarkova, Olena; Voskresenskaya, Elena

    2014-05-01

    The aim of study is to analyze the parameters of precipitation extremes and inequality over Ukraine in recent climate epoch and their possible changes in the future. Data of observations from 28 hydrometeorological stations over Ukraine and output of GFDL-CM3 model (CMIP5) for XXI century were used in the study. The methods of concentration index (J. Martin-Vide, 2004) for the study of precipitation inequality while the extreme precipitation indices recommended by the ETCCDI - for the frequency of events. Results. Precipitation inequality on the annual and seasonal scales was studied using estimated CI series for 1951-2005. It was found that annual CI ranges vary from 0.58 to 0.64. They increase southward from the north-west (forest zone) and the north-east (forest steppe zone) of Ukraine. CI maxima are located in the coastal regions of the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov. Annual CI spatial distribution indicates that the contribution of extreme precipitation into annual totals is most significant at the boundary zone between steppe and marine regions. At the same time precipitation pattern at the foothill of Carpathian Mountains is more homogenous. The CI minima (0.54) are typical for the winter season in foothill of Ukrainian Carpathians. The CI maxima reach 0.71 in spring at the steppe zone closed to the Black Sea coast. It should be noted that the greatest ranges of CI maximum and CI minimum deviation are typical for spring. It is associated with patterns of cyclone trajectories in that season. The most territory is characterized by tendency to decrease the contribution of extreme precipitation into the total amount (CI linear trends are predominantly negative in all seasons). Decadal and interdecadal variability of precipitation inequality associated with global processes in ocean-atmosphere system are also studied. It was shown that precipitation inequality over Ukraine on 10 - 15 % stronger in negative phase of Pacific Decadal Oscillation and in positive phase

  17. Extreme heat changes post-heat wave community reassembly.

    PubMed

    Seifert, Linda I; Weithoff, Guntram; Vos, Matthijs

    2015-06-01

    Climate forecasts project further increases in extremely high-temperature events. These present threats to biodiversity, as they promote population declines and local species extinctions. This implies that ecological communities will need to rely more strongly on recovery processes, such as recolonization from a meta-community context. It is poorly understood how differences in extreme event intensity change the outcome of subsequent community reassembly and if such extremes modify the biotic environment in ways that would prevent the successful re-establishment of lost species. We studied replicated aquatic communities consisting of algae and herbivorous rotifers in a design that involved a control and two different heat wave intensity treatments (29°C and 39°C). Animal species that suffered heat-induced extinction were subsequently re-introduced at the same time and density, in each of the two treatments. The 39°C treatment led to community closure in all replicates, meaning that a previously successful herbivore species could not re-establish itself in the postheat wave community. In contrast, such closure never occurred after a 29°C event. Heat wave intensity determined the number of herbivore extinctions and strongly affected algal relative abundances. Re-introduced herbivore species were thus confronted with significantly different food environments. This ecological legacy generated by heat wave intensity led to differences in the failure or success of herbivore species re-introductions. Reassembly was significantly more variable, and hence less predictable, after an extreme heat wave, and was more canalized after a moderate one. Our results pertain to relatively simple communities, but they suggest that ecological legacies introduced by extremely high-temperature events may change subsequent ecological recovery and even prevent the successful re-establishment of lost species. Knowing the processes promoting and preventing ecological recovery is crucial

  18. Climate, extreme heat, and electricity demand in California

    SciTech Connect

    Miller, N.L.; Hayhoe, K.; Jin, J.; Auffhammer, M.

    2008-04-01

    Climate projections from three atmosphere-ocean climate models with a range of low to mid-high temperature sensitivity forced by the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change SRES higher, middle, and lower emission scenarios indicate that, over the 21st century, extreme heat events for major cities in heavily air-conditioned California will increase rapidly. These increases in temperature extremes are projected to exceed the rate of increase in mean temperature, along with increased variance. Extreme heat is defined here as the 90 percent exceedance probability (T90) of the local warmest summer days under the current climate. The number of extreme heat days in Los Angeles, where T90 is currently 95 F (32 C), may increase from 12 days to as many as 96 days per year by 2100, implying current-day heat wave conditions may last for the entire summer, with earlier onset. Overall, projected increases in extreme heat under the higher A1fi emission scenario by 2070-2099 tend to be 20-30 percent higher than those projected under the lower B1 emission scenario, ranging from approximately double the historical number of days for inland California cities (e.g. Sacramento and Fresno), up to four times for previously temperate coastal cities (e.g. Los Angeles, San Diego). These findings, combined with observed relationships between high temperature and electricity demand for air-conditioned regions, suggest potential shortfalls in transmission and supply during T90 peak electricity demand periods. When the projected extreme heat and peak demand for electricity are mapped onto current availability, maintaining technology and population constant only for demand side calculations, we find the potential for electricity deficits as high as 17 percent. Similar increases in extreme heat days are suggested for other locations across the U.S. southwest, as well as for developing nations with rapidly increasing electricity demands. Electricity response to recent extreme heat events, such

  19. Present-day irrigation mitigates heat extremes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thiery, Wim; Davin, Edouard L.; Lawrence, David M.; Hirsch, Annette L.; Hauser, Mathias; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

    2017-02-01

    Irrigation is an essential practice for sustaining global food production and many regional economies. Emerging scientific evidence indicates that irrigation substantially affects mean climate conditions in different regions of the world. Yet how this practice influences climate extremes is currently unknown. Here we use ensemble simulations with the Community Earth System Model to assess the impacts of irrigation on climate extremes. An evaluation of the model performance reveals that irrigation has a small yet overall beneficial effect on the representation of present-day near-surface climate. While the influence of irrigation on annual mean temperatures is limited, we find a large impact on temperature extremes, with a particularly strong cooling during the hottest day of the year (-0.78 K averaged over irrigated land). The strong influence on extremes stems from the timing of irrigation and its influence on land-atmosphere coupling strength. Together these effects result in asymmetric temperature responses, with a more pronounced cooling during hot and/or dry periods. The influence of irrigation is even more pronounced when considering subgrid-scale model output, suggesting that local effects of land management are far more important than previously thought. Our results underline that irrigation has substantially reduced our exposure to hot temperature extremes in the past and highlight the need to account for irrigation in future climate projections.

  20. Possible future changes in extreme events over Northern Eurasia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Monier, Erwan; Sokolov, Andrei; Scott, Jeffery

    2013-04-01

    In this study, we investigate possible future climate change over Northern Eurasia and its impact on extreme events. Northern Eurasia is a major player in the global carbon budget because of boreal forests and peatlands. Circumpolar boreal forests alone contain more than five times the amount of carbon of temperate forests and almost double the amount of carbon of the world's tropical forests. Furthermore, severe permafrost degradation associated with climate change could result in peatlands releasing large amounts of carbon dioxide and methane. Meanwhile, changes in the frequency and magnitude of extreme events, such as extreme precipitation, heat waves or frost days are likely to have substantial impacts on Northern Eurasia ecosystems. For this reason, it is very important to quantify the possible climate change over Northern Eurasia under different emissions scenarios, while accounting for the uncertainty in the climate response and changes in extreme events. For several decades, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change has been investigating uncertainty in climate change using the MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) framework, an integrated assessment model that couples an earth system model of intermediate complexity (with a 2D zonal-mean atmosphere) to a human activity model. In this study, regional change is investigated using the MIT IGSM-CAM framework that links the IGSM to the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Atmosphere Model (CAM). New modules were developed and implemented in CAM to allow climate parameters to be changed to match those of the IGSM. The simulations presented in this paper were carried out for two emission scenarios, a "business as usual" scenario and a 660 ppm of CO2-equivalent stabilization, which are similar to, respectively, the Representative Concentration Pathways RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios. Values of climate sensitivity and net aerosol

  1. Chicago, IL Adapts to Improve Extreme Heat Preparedness

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Recognizing that heat waves are expected to increase in Chicago due to climate change,–supported by the Chicago Climate Impacts Report, the city adopted a comprehensive set of actions to reduce deaths from extreme heat events.

  2. Seasonal mean temperature changes control future heat waves

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Argüeso, Daniel; Di Luca, Alejandro; Perkins-Kirkpatrick, Sarah E.; Evans, Jason P.

    2016-07-01

    Increased temperature will result in longer, more frequent, and more intense heat waves. Changes in temperature variability have been deemed necessary to account for future heat wave characteristics. However, this has been quantified only in Europe and North America, while the rest of the globe remains unexplored. Using late century global climate projections, we show that annual mean temperature increases is the key factor defining heat wave changes in most regions. We find that commonly studied areas are an exception rather than the standard and the mean climate change signal generally outweighs any influence from variability changes. More importantly, differences in warming across seasons are responsible for most of the heat wave changes and their consideration relegates the contribution of variability to a marginal role. This reveals that accurately capturing mean seasonal changes is crucial to estimate future heat waves and reframes our interpretation of future temperature extremes.

  3. Characterizing extreme and oppressive heat waves in Illinois

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ford, Trent W.; Schoof, Justin T.

    2017-01-01

    Heat waves are characteristic features of summertime climate in the Midwest United States and can have significant agricultural, hydrological, and societal impacts. Historically, heat waves in the Midwest state of Illinois have been either extreme (high temperature and low humidity) or oppressive (high temperature and high humidity) in nature, but our knowledge of the factors determining which heat wave type occurs is limited. We use self-organizing maps to classify synoptic-scale atmospheric circulation patterns associated with oppressive and extreme heat events and analysis of variance to evaluate the atmospheric and land surface features responsible for differences in humidity that characterize the two. We find that the majority of extreme and oppressive heat events are associated with similar synoptic-scale atmospheric conditions. Additionally, both locally evaporated moisture and advected moisture sources were important for determining which of the two heat wave types occurred. Specifically, oppressive heat waves were characterized by abundant antecedent precipitation, surplus soil moisture, and elevated evapotranspiration and related atmospheric humidity. Lower humidity levels during extreme heat wave events were driven by relative reductions in evapotranspiration due to limited soil water content. Overall, our results suggest that the onset of heat waves in Illinois is primarily driven by circulation features in the upper atmosphere; however, the distinction of extreme or oppressive heat wave is due to differences in boundary layer humidity, driven in part by land surface moisture availability for evapotranspiration.

  4. Medical Evaluation for Exposure Extremes: Heat.

    PubMed

    Pryor, Riana R; Bennett, Brad L; OʼConnor, Francis G; Young, Justin M J; Asplund, Chad A

    2015-09-01

    Exertional heat illness can be a serious consequence of sports or exercise in hot environments. Participants can possess intrinsic or face extrinsic risk factors that may increase their risk for heat-related illness. Knowledge of the physiology and pathology of heat illness, identification of risk factors, and strategies to combat heat accumulation will aid both the practitioner and the participant in preparing for activities that occur in hot environments. Through preparation and mitigation of risk, safe and enjoyable wilderness adventure can be pursued.

  5. Medical Evaluation for Exposure Extremes: Heat.

    PubMed

    Pryor, Riana R; Bennett, Brad L; O'Connor, Francis G; Young, Justin M J; Asplund, Chad A

    2015-12-01

    Exertional heat illness can be a serious consequence of sports or exercise in hot environments. Participants can possess intrinsic or face extrinsic risk factors that may increase their risk for heat-related illness. Knowledge of the physiology and pathology of heat illness, identification of risk factors, and strategies to combat heat accumulation will aid both the practitioner and the participant in preparing for activities that occur in hot environments. Through preparation and mitigation of risk, safe and enjoyable wilderness adventure can be pursued.

  6. Future Urbanization and the Management of Urban Heat Risk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marcotullio, P. J.

    2015-12-01

    We present urbanization scenarios that identify a range of urban population estimates to 2100 on a global spatial grid. We associate these data with model outputs that estimate future temperature using IPCC RCP8.5 scenarios for 2030, 2050, 2070 and 2080 using minimum, maximum and mean urban population per grid cell exposure to average summer temperatures of > 35° C to identify national, regional and global totals. After an examination of urban extreme heat morbidity and mortality trends we review the range of policies (across sectors such as energy, buildings, health and hospitals, water supply, transportation, etc.,) with particular emphasis on knowledge from different sources, technologies and experiences - including indigenous knowledge systems, currently deployed in cities around the world that respond to this threat. Finally, we identify potential synergies, trade-offs and maladaptations in urban adaptation responses to extreme heat given estimated future population exposure.

  7. Even extreme heat cannot affect the SP-ablator

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stoclfleth, Holger; Knabe, Helmut; Wahl, Juergen; Haug, Tilman

    A heat-protection system that was successfully tested in a plasma wind tunnel is described. The system is capable of withstanding extreme short-term heat loads when reentering the atmosphere. The surface-protected (SP) ablator exhibits significant increase in the efficiency of the cooling effect and dynamic pressure resistance due to a ceramic matrix composite layer that protects its surface.

  8. Future increases in extreme precipitation exceed observed scaling rates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bao, Jiawei; Sherwood, Steven C.; Alexander, Lisa V.; Evans, Jason P.

    2017-01-01

    Models and physical reasoning predict that extreme precipitation will increase in a warmer climate due to increased atmospheric humidity. Observational tests using regression analysis have reported a puzzling variety of apparent scaling rates including strong rates in midlatitude locations but weak or negative rates in the tropics. Here we analyse daily extreme precipitation events in several Australian cities to show that temporary local cooling associated with extreme events and associated synoptic conditions reduces these apparent scaling rates, especially in warmer climatic conditions. A regional climate projection ensemble for Australia, which implicitly includes these effects, accurately and robustly reproduces the observed apparent scaling throughout the continent for daily precipitation extremes. Projections from the same model show future daily extremes increasing at rates faster than those inferred from observed scaling. The strongest extremes (99.9th percentile events) scale significantly faster than near-surface water vapour, between 5.7-15% °C-1 depending on model details. This scaling rate is highly correlated with the change in water vapour, implying a trade-off between a more arid future climate or one with strong increases in extreme precipitation. These conclusions are likely to generalize to other regions.

  9. Hypersonic Composites Resist Extreme Heat and Stress

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2007-01-01

    Through research contracts with NASA, Materials and Electrochemical Research Corporation (MER), of Tucson, Arizona, contributed a number of technologies to record-breaking hypersonic flights. Through this research, MER developed a coating that successfully passed testing to simulate Mach 10 conditions, as well as provide several additional carbon-carbon (C-C) composite components for the flights. MER created all of the leading edges for the X-43A test vehicles at Dryden-considered the most critical parts of this experimental craft. In addition to being very heat resistant, the coating had to be very lightweight and thin, as the aircraft was designed to very precise specifications and could not afford to have a bulky coating. MER patented its carbon-carbon (C-C) composite process and then formed a spinoff company, Frontier Materials Corporation (FMC), also based in Tucson. FMC is using the patent in conjunction with low-cost PAN (polyacrylonitrile)-based fibers to introduce these materials to the commercial markets. The C-C composites are very lightweight and exceptionally strong and stiff, even at very high temperatures. The composites have been used in industrial heating applications, the automotive and aerospace industries, as well as in glass manufacturing and on semiconductors. Applications also include transfer components for glass manufacturing and structural members for carrier support in semiconductor processing.

  10. Historical changes and future projection of extreme precipitation in China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yuan, Zhe; Yang, Zhiyong; Yan, Denghua; Yin, Jun

    2017-01-01

    Investigating changes in extreme precipitation, i.e., maximum precipitation for multiday events, is critical for flood management and risk assessment. Based on the observed daily precipitation from China's Ground Precipitation 0.5° × 0.5° Gridded Dataset (V2.0) and simulated daily precipitation from five general circulation models (GCMs) provided by The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP), extreme precipitation indices corresponding to annual maximum 1-, 3-, 15-, and 30-day precipitation across China from 1961 to 2011 and 2011 to 2050 were calculated. Relative changes in the 10-, 20-, and 50-year return period estimates, using 1-, 3-, 15-, and 30-day precipitation, are discussed to represent changes in extreme precipitation in the future. Results show that (1) the spatial distribution of annual maximum precipitation for 1, 3, 15, and 30 days is similar with that of annual precipitation. An increasing trend from the northwest to the southeast was found, with the highest values shown to be in the plain region adjacent to the mountains and coastal area; (2) Comparing the observed and simulated data, it could be seen that climate models have good simulation of 10-, 20-, and 50-year return period events. Absolute relative error is less than 30 % in 80 % in the study area; (3) Extreme precipitation in the future has an increasing trend in China. In the south, extreme precipitation associated with short duration as well as the 50-year return period will likely increase to a comparatively large degree in the future. In the north, extreme precipitation associated with long duration and the 10-year return period will likely see a large increase in the future.

  11. Precipitation Extremes: Considerations for Anthropogenically-forced Future Changes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kunkel, K.; Young, J.

    2015-12-01

    The Third National Climate Assessment states that "increases in the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events are projected for all U.S. regions". While that general statement was made with high confidence, the practical implications for decision-makers are much less clear. In particular, engineering design needs quantitative estimates of probable maximum precipitation (PMP) and intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) values for the future in order to optimize runoff control structures for future climate conditions. This can be realized by simply analyzing the precipitation data from global climate model simulations of the future. However, confidence in the resulting values suffers from the known issues with GCM simulation of precipitation. In addition, skepticism about the accuracy of climate models negatively affects potential adoption of revised values in the engineering design community. We contend that scientists need a multi-pronged approach to develop PMP/IDF values that can be defended, explained, and promoted in order to maximize societal benefits and avoid catastrophic events. This talk will discuss considerations that could/should form the basis for design values. While global-warming induced increases in atmospheric water vapor content are nearly certain and form the foundation for expected increases in extreme precipitation, they most likely will be modulated by changes in global atmospheric dynamics and the consequent effects on local weather system climatology. This can be seen currently in the unexplained regional variations in recent trends in extreme precipitation frequency and intensity. We need to be able to understand recent trends, when greenhouse gas forcing of the climate systems has been rapidly increasing, in order to produce confident projections of future extreme precipitation.

  12. Effects of climate extremes on the terrestrial carbon cycle: concepts, processes and potential future impacts.

    PubMed

    Frank, Dorothea; Reichstein, Markus; Bahn, Michael; Thonicke, Kirsten; Frank, David; Mahecha, Miguel D; Smith, Pete; van der Velde, Marijn; Vicca, Sara; Babst, Flurin; Beer, Christian; Buchmann, Nina; Canadell, Josep G; Ciais, Philippe; Cramer, Wolfgang; Ibrom, Andreas; Miglietta, Franco; Poulter, Ben; Rammig, Anja; Seneviratne, Sonia I; Walz, Ariane; Wattenbach, Martin; Zavala, Miguel A; Zscheischler, Jakob

    2015-08-01

    Extreme droughts, heat waves, frosts, precipitation, wind storms and other climate extremes may impact the structure, composition and functioning of terrestrial ecosystems, and thus carbon cycling and its feedbacks to the climate system. Yet, the interconnected avenues through which climate extremes drive ecological and physiological processes and alter the carbon balance are poorly understood. Here, we review the literature on carbon cycle relevant responses of ecosystems to extreme climatic events. Given that impacts of climate extremes are considered disturbances, we assume the respective general disturbance-induced mechanisms and processes to also operate in an extreme context. The paucity of well-defined studies currently renders a quantitative meta-analysis impossible, but permits us to develop a deductive framework for identifying the main mechanisms (and coupling thereof) through which climate extremes may act on the carbon cycle. We find that ecosystem responses can exceed the duration of the climate impacts via lagged effects on the carbon cycle. The expected regional impacts of future climate extremes will depend on changes in the probability and severity of their occurrence, on the compound effects and timing of different climate extremes, and on the vulnerability of each land-cover type modulated by management. Although processes and sensitivities differ among biomes, based on expert opinion, we expect forests to exhibit the largest net effect of extremes due to their large carbon pools and fluxes, potentially large indirect and lagged impacts, and long recovery time to regain previous stocks. At the global scale, we presume that droughts have the strongest and most widespread effects on terrestrial carbon cycling. Comparing impacts of climate extremes identified via remote sensing vs. ground-based observational case studies reveals that many regions in the (sub-)tropics are understudied. Hence, regional investigations are needed to allow a global

  13. Effects of climate extremes on the terrestrial carbon cycle: concepts, processes and potential future impacts

    PubMed Central

    Frank, Dorothea; Reichstein, Markus; Bahn, Michael; Thonicke, Kirsten; Frank, David; Mahecha, Miguel D; Smith, Pete; van der Velde, Marijn; Vicca, Sara; Babst, Flurin; Beer, Christian; Buchmann, Nina; Canadell, Josep G; Ciais, Philippe; Cramer, Wolfgang; Ibrom, Andreas; Miglietta, Franco; Poulter, Ben; Rammig, Anja; Seneviratne, Sonia I; Walz, Ariane; Wattenbach, Martin; Zavala, Miguel A; Zscheischler, Jakob

    2015-01-01

    Extreme droughts, heat waves, frosts, precipitation, wind storms and other climate extremes may impact the structure, composition and functioning of terrestrial ecosystems, and thus carbon cycling and its feedbacks to the climate system. Yet, the interconnected avenues through which climate extremes drive ecological and physiological processes and alter the carbon balance are poorly understood. Here, we review the literature on carbon cycle relevant responses of ecosystems to extreme climatic events. Given that impacts of climate extremes are considered disturbances, we assume the respective general disturbance-induced mechanisms and processes to also operate in an extreme context. The paucity of well-defined studies currently renders a quantitative meta-analysis impossible, but permits us to develop a deductive framework for identifying the main mechanisms (and coupling thereof) through which climate extremes may act on the carbon cycle. We find that ecosystem responses can exceed the duration of the climate impacts via lagged effects on the carbon cycle. The expected regional impacts of future climate extremes will depend on changes in the probability and severity of their occurrence, on the compound effects and timing of different climate extremes, and on the vulnerability of each land-cover type modulated by management. Although processes and sensitivities differ among biomes, based on expert opinion, we expect forests to exhibit the largest net effect of extremes due to their large carbon pools and fluxes, potentially large indirect and lagged impacts, and long recovery time to regain previous stocks. At the global scale, we presume that droughts have the strongest and most widespread effects on terrestrial carbon cycling. Comparing impacts of climate extremes identified via remote sensing vs. ground-based observational case studies reveals that many regions in the (sub-)tropics are understudied. Hence, regional investigations are needed to allow a global

  14. Analysis of the September 2010 Los Angeles Extreme Heating Event

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    King, K. C.; Kaplan, M. L.; Smith, C.; Tilley, J.

    2015-12-01

    The Southern California coastal region has a temperate climate, however, there are days with extreme heating where temperatures may reach above 37°C, stressing the region's power grid, leading to health issues, and creating environments susceptible to fires. These extreme localized heating events occur over a short period, from a few hours to one to two days and may or may not occur in conjunction with high winds. The Santa Ana winds are a well-studied example of this type of phenomena. On September 27, 2010, Los Angeles, CA (LA), reached a record maximum temperature of 45°C during an extreme heating event that was not a Santa Ana event. We analyzed the event using observations, reanalysis data, and mesoscale simulations with the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to understand the mechanisms of extreme heating and provide guidance on forecasting similar events. On 26 September 2010, a large synoptic ridge overturned and broke over the midwestern United States (US), driving momentum and internal energy to the southwest. A large pool of hot air at mid-levels over the four-corners region also shifted west, moving into southern California by 26 September. This hot air resided over the LA basin, just above the surface, by 00 GMT on 27 September. At this time, the pressure gradient at low levels was weak. Based on WRF model and wind profiler/RASS observations, we propose that separate mountain-plains solenoids (MPS) occurred on both 26 and 27 of September. The MPS on 26 September moved the hot air into place just above the surface over the LA basin. Overnight, the hot air is trapped near the surface due to the action of gravity waves in conjunction with orographic density currents and remnant migrating solenoids that form over the mountains surrounding LA. When the MPS forms during the late morning on the 27th, the descending return branch flow plus surface sensible heating creates a mechanism to move the heat to the surface, leading to record temperatures.

  15. Future Extreme Sea Level Variability in the Tropical Pacific

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Widlansky, M. J.; Timmermann, A.; Stuecker, M. F.; McGregor, S.; Cai, W.; Chikamoto, Y.

    2014-12-01

    During strong El Niño events, sea level drops around tropical western Pacific islands by up to 20-30 cm. Such extreme events (referred to in Samoa as 'taimasa') expose shallow reefs, thereby damaging associated coastal ecosystems and contributing to the formation of 'flat topped coral heads' often referred to as microatolls. We show that during the termination of strong El Niño events, a southward movement of weak trade winds prolongs extreme low sea levels in the southwestern Pacific. Whereas future sea levels are projected to gradually rise, recent modeling evidence suggests that the frequency of strong El Niño events (which alter local trade winds and sea level) is very likely to increase with greenhouse warming. Such changes could exacerbate El Niño-related sea level drops, especially in the tropical southwestern Pacific. Using present-generation coupled climate models forced with increasing greenhouse-gas concentrations, we assess how the interplay between global mean sea level rise, on one hand, and more frequent interannual sea level drops, on the other, will affect future coastal sea levels in the tropical Pacific.

  16. Techniques that Link Extreme Events to the Large Scale, Applied to California Heat Waves

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grotjahn, R.

    2015-12-01

    Understanding the mechanisms how Californian Central Valley (CCV) summer extreme hot spells develop is very important since the events have major impacts on the economy and human safety. Results from a series of CCV heat wave studies will be presented, emphasizing the techniques used. Key larger scale elements are identified statistically that are also consistent with synoptic and dynamic understanding of what must be present during extreme heat. Beyond providing a clear synoptic explanation, these key elements have high predictability, in part because soil moisture has little annual variation in the heavily-irrigated CCV. In turn, the predictability naturally leads to an effective tool to assess climate model simulation of these heat waves in historical and future climate scenarios. (Does the model develop extreme heat for the correct reasons?) Further work identified that these large scale elements arise in two quite different ways: one from expansion southwestward of a pre-existing heat wave in southwest Canada, the other formed in place from parcels traversing the North Pacific. The pre-existing heat wave explains an early result showing correlation between heat waves in Sacramento California, and other locations along the US west coast, including distant Seattle Washington. CCV heat waves can be preceded by unusually strong tropical Indian Ocean and Indonesian convection, this partial link may occur through an Asian subtropical jet wave guide. Another link revealed by diagnostics is a middle and higher latitude source of wave activity in Siberia and East Asia that also leads to the development of the CCV heat wave. This talk will address as many of these results and the tools used to obtain them as is reasonable within the available time.

  17. An Analysis of Extreme Heat and Energy Demand

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Miller, N. L.; Jin, J.; Hayhoe, K.

    2005-12-01

    Summer temperatures in the southwest U.S. are projected to increase more rapidly than previously expected, accompanied by longer, more frequent, and more severe extreme heat conditions. A heat and energy impacts analysis was performed using three Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models, the HadCM3, GFDL, and the PCM, forced with the A1fi, A2, and B1 greenhouse gas emissions detailed in the IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios, and statistically downscaled to specific urban locations in California. Results show summer average temperature increases of 2-5oC under the lower B1 scenario and 4-8oC under the higher A1fi scenario. Results indicate that heat waves become longer and more frequent, with projections for California heat wave onset occurring by as much as 30 days earlier than present by 2050 and 70 days earlier by 2099. In addition, the number of heat wave days for six metropolitan areas in California (Los Angeles, Riverside/San Bernardino, San Francisco, Sacramento, Fresno and El Centro) show an increase by 15 to 40 more heat wave days in the 2050s than during the 1990s, and by the 2090s, the increase in heat wave days rises by 30 to 50 days under B1 and 70 to 100 days under A1fi. Heat waves are also projected to become more intense, with higher temperatures sustained over longer periods. Increases in mean and extreme heat events during the summer months have significant implications for energy demand in the heavily air-conditioned Southwest summers. Electricity load in these areas have a strong correlation with high temperature and increases proportionally, primarily due to increased air conditioning use. California's state-wide electricity demand at present increases by approximately 400 MW/oC for temperatures above 28oC, and the power grid is strained as temperatures increase, as this recent summer has seen energy alerts for Southern California. The projected temperature increases discussed here will likely further strain the California power grid

  18. Hot bats: extreme thermal tolerance in a desert heat wave

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bondarenco, Artiom; Körtner, Gerhard; Geiser, Fritz

    2014-08-01

    Climate change is predicted to increase temperature extremes and thus thermal stress on organisms. Animals living in hot deserts are already exposed to high ambient temperatures ( T a) making them especially vulnerable to further warming. However, little is known about the effect of extreme heat events on small desert mammals, especially tree-roosting microbats that are not strongly protected from environmental temperature fluctuations. During a heat wave with record T as at Sturt National Park, we quantified the thermal physiology and behaviour of a single free-ranging little broad-nosed ( Scotorepens greyii, henceforth Scotorepens) and two inland freetail bats ( Mormopterus species 3, henceforth Mormopterus) using temperature telemetry over 3 days. On 11 and 13 January, maximum T a was ˜45.0 °C, and all monitored bats were thermoconforming. On 12 January 2013, when T a exceeded 48.0 °C, Scotorepens abandoned its poorly insulated roost during the daytime, whereas both Mormopterus remained in their better insulated roosts and were mostly thermoconforming. Maximum skin temperatures ( T skin) ranged from 44.0 to 44.3 °C in Scotorepens and from 40.0 to 45.8 °C in Mormopterus, and these are the highest T skin values reported for any free-ranging bat. Our study provides the first evidence of extensive heat tolerance in free-ranging desert microbats. It shows that these bats can tolerate the most extreme T skin range known for mammals (3.3 to 45.8 °C) and delay regulation of T skin by thermoconforming over a wide temperature range and thus decrease the risks of dehydration and consequently death.

  19. Hot bats: extreme thermal tolerance in a desert heat wave.

    PubMed

    Bondarenco, Artiom; Körtner, Gerhard; Geiser, Fritz

    2014-08-01

    Climate change is predicted to increase temperature extremes and thus thermal stress on organisms. Animals living in hot deserts are already exposed to high ambient temperatures (T a) making them especially vulnerable to further warming. However, little is known about the effect of extreme heat events on small desert mammals, especially tree-roosting microbats that are not strongly protected from environmental temperature fluctuations. During a heat wave with record T as at Sturt National Park, we quantified the thermal physiology and behaviour of a single free-ranging little broad-nosed (Scotorepens greyii, henceforth Scotorepens) and two inland freetail bats (Mormopterus species 3, henceforth Mormopterus) using temperature telemetry over 3 days. On 11 and 13 January, maximum T a was ∼45.0 °C, and all monitored bats were thermoconforming. On 12 January 2013, when T a exceeded 48.0 °C, Scotorepens abandoned its poorly insulated roost during the daytime, whereas both Mormopterus remained in their better insulated roosts and were mostly thermoconforming. Maximum skin temperatures (T skin) ranged from 44.0 to 44.3 °C in Scotorepens and from 40.0 to 45.8 °C in Mormopterus, and these are the highest T skin values reported for any free-ranging bat. Our study provides the first evidence of extensive heat tolerance in free-ranging desert microbats. It shows that these bats can tolerate the most extreme T skin range known for mammals (3.3 to 45.8 °C) and delay regulation of T skin by thermoconforming over a wide temperature range and thus decrease the risks of dehydration and consequently death.

  20. A Cross-Sectional, Randomized Cluster Sample Survey of Household Vulnerability to Extreme Heat among Slum Dwellers in Ahmedabad, India

    PubMed Central

    Tran, Kathy V.; Azhar, Gulrez S.; Nair, Rajesh; Knowlton, Kim; Jaiswal, Anjali; Sheffield, Perry; Mavalankar, Dileep; Hess, Jeremy

    2013-01-01

    Extreme heat is a significant public health concern in India; extreme heat hazards are projected to increase in frequency and severity with climate change. Few of the factors driving population heat vulnerability are documented, though poverty is a presumed risk factor. To facilitate public health preparedness, an assessment of factors affecting vulnerability among slum dwellers was conducted in summer 2011 in Ahmedabad, Gujarat, India. Indicators of heat exposure, susceptibility to heat illness, and adaptive capacity, all of which feed into heat vulnerability, was assessed through a cross-sectional household survey using randomized multistage cluster sampling. Associations between heat-related morbidity and vulnerability factors were identified using multivariate logistic regression with generalized estimating equations to account for clustering effects. Age, preexisting medical conditions, work location, and access to health information and resources were associated with self-reported heat illness. Several of these variables were unique to this study. As sociodemographics, occupational heat exposure, and access to resources were shown to increase vulnerability, future interventions (e.g., health education) might target specific populations among Ahmedabad urban slum dwellers to reduce vulnerability to extreme heat. Surveillance and evaluations of future interventions may also be worthwhile. PMID:23778061

  1. A cross-sectional, randomized cluster sample survey of household vulnerability to extreme heat among slum dwellers in ahmedabad, india.

    PubMed

    Tran, Kathy V; Azhar, Gulrez S; Nair, Rajesh; Knowlton, Kim; Jaiswal, Anjali; Sheffield, Perry; Mavalankar, Dileep; Hess, Jeremy

    2013-06-18

    Extreme heat is a significant public health concern in India; extreme heat hazards are projected to increase in frequency and severity with climate change. Few of the factors driving population heat vulnerability are documented, though poverty is a presumed risk factor. To facilitate public health preparedness, an assessment of factors affecting vulnerability among slum dwellers was conducted in summer 2011 in Ahmedabad, Gujarat, India. Indicators of heat exposure, susceptibility to heat illness, and adaptive capacity, all of which feed into heat vulnerability, was assessed through a cross-sectional household survey using randomized multistage cluster sampling. Associations between heat-related morbidity and vulnerability factors were identified using multivariate logistic regression with generalized estimating equations to account for clustering effects. Age, preexisting medical conditions, work location, and access to health information and resources were associated with self-reported heat illness. Several of these variables were unique to this study. As sociodemographics, occupational heat exposure, and access to resources were shown to increase vulnerability, future interventions (e.g., health education) might target specific populations among Ahmedabad urban slum dwellers to reduce vulnerability to extreme heat. Surveillance and evaluations of future interventions may also be worthwhile.

  2. Assessing the impact of future climate extremes on the US corn and soybean production

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jin, Z.

    2015-12-01

    Future climate changes will place big challenges to the US agricultural system, among which increasing heat stress and precipitation variability were the two major concerns. Reliable prediction of crop productions in response to the increasingly frequent and severe extreme climate is a prerequisite for developing adaptive strategies on agricultural risk management. However, the progress has been slow on quantifying the uncertainty of computational predictions at high spatial resolutions. Here we assessed the risks of future climate extremes on the US corn and soybean production using the Agricultural Production System sIMulator (APSIM) model under different climate scenarios. To quantify the uncertainty due to conceptual representations of heat, drought and flooding stress in crop models, we proposed a new strategy of algorithm ensemble in which different methods for simulating crop responses to those extreme climatic events were incorporated into the APSIM. This strategy allowed us to isolate irrelevant structure differences among existing crop models but only focus on the process of interest. Future climate inputs were derived from high-spatial-resolution (12km × 12km) Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) simulations under Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 (RCP 4.5) and 8.5 (RCP 8.5). Based on crop model simulations, we analyzed the magnitude and frequency of heat, drought and flooding stress for the 21st century. We also evaluated the water use efficiency and water deficit on regional scales if farmers were to boost their yield by applying more fertilizers. Finally we proposed spatially explicit adaptation strategies of irrigation and fertilizing for different management zones.

  3. Population exposure to heat-related extremes: Demographic change vs climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jones, B.; O'Neill, B. C.; Tebaldi, C.; Oleson, K. W.

    2014-12-01

    Extreme heat events are projected to increase in frequency and intensity in the coming decades [1]. The physical effects of extreme heat on human populations are well-documented, and anticipating changes in future exposure to extreme heat is a key component of adequate planning/mitigation [2, 3]. Exposure to extreme heat depends not only on changing climate, but also on changes in the size and spatial distribution of the human population. Here we focus on systematically quantifying exposure to extreme heat as a function of both climate and population change. We compare exposure outcomes across multiple global climate and spatial population scenarios, and characterize the relative contributions of each to population exposure to extreme heat. We consider a 2 x 2 matrix of climate and population output, using projections of heat extremes corresponding to RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 from the NCAR community land model, and spatial population projections for SSP 3 and SSP 5 from the NCAR spatial population downscaling model. Our primary comparison is across RCPs - exposure outcomes from RCP 4.5 versus RCP 8.5 - paying particular attention to how variation depends on the choice of SSP in terms of aggregate global and regional exposure, as well as the spatial distribution of exposure. We assess how aggregate exposure changes based on the choice of SSP, and which driver is more important, population or climate change (i.e. does that outcome vary more as a result of RCP or SSP). We further decompose the population component to analyze the contributions of total population change, migration, and changes in local spatial structure. Preliminary results from a similar study of the US suggests a four-to-six fold increase in total exposure by the latter half of the 21st century. Changes in population are as important as changes in climate in driving this outcome, and there is regional variation in the relative importance of each. Aggregate population growth, as well as redistribution of

  4. An 'extreme' future for estuaries? Effects of extreme climatic events on estuarine water quality and ecology.

    PubMed

    Wetz, Michael S; Yoskowitz, David W

    2013-04-15

    Recent climate observations suggest that extreme climatic events (ECE; droughts, floods, tropical cyclones, heat waves) have increased in frequency and/or intensity in certain world regions, consistent with climate model projections that account for man's influence on the global climate system. A synthesis of existing literature is presented and shows that ECE affect estuarine water quality by altering: (1) the delivery and processing of nutrients and organic matter, (2) physical-chemical properties of estuaries, and (3) ecosystem structure and function. From the standpoint of estuarine scientists and resource managers, a major scientific challenge will be to project the estuarine response to ECE that will co-occur with other important environmental changes (i.e., natural climate variability, global warming, sea level rise, eutrophication), as this will affect the provisioning of important ecosystem services provided by estuaries.

  5. [Sports and extreme conditions. Cardiovascular incidence in long term exertion and extreme temperatures (heat, cold)].

    PubMed

    Melin, B; Savourey, G

    2001-06-30

    During ultra-endurance exercise, both increase in body temperature and dehydration due to sweat losses, lead to a decrease in central blood volume. The heart rate drift allows maintaining appropriate cardiac output, in order to satisfy both muscle perfusion and heat transfer requirements by increasing skin blood flow. The resulting dehydration can impair thermal regulation and increase the risks of serious accidents as heat stroke. Endurance events, lasting more than 8 hours, result in large sweat sodium chloride losses. Thus, ingestion of large amounts of water with poor salt intake can induce symptomatic hyponatremia (plasma sodium < 130 mEq/L) which is also a serious accident. Heat environment increases the thermal constraint and when the air humidity is high, evaporation of sweat is compromise. Thus, thermal stress becomes uncompensable which increases the risk of cardiovascular collapse. Cold exposure induces physiological responses to maintain internal temperature by both limiting thermal losses and increasing metabolic heat production. Cold can induce accidental hypothermia and local frost-bites; moreover, it increases the risk of arrhythmia during exercise. Some guidelines (cardiovascular fitness, water and electrolyte intakes, protective clothing) are given for each extreme condition.

  6. Extreme Hot Days future projections using Circulation Types

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Andres Garcia-Valero, Juan; Fernández-Montes, Sonia; Jerez, Sonia; Montávez, Juan Pedro; Gómez-Navarro, Juan Jose

    2016-04-01

    This work presents an ensemble of future climate change projections of Extreme Hot Days (EHDs) for Spain. EHD are defined as the days with temperature over the 95 percentile of extended 8 summer regional series (Garcia-Valero et al, 2015). The ensemble consist of 18 members. These come from varying the RPC (4.5 and 8.5), the global model (MPIM,EC-EARTH, CCSM) and the Circulation Type (CT) classification (Z500-SLP, Z500-T850, SLP-T850) obtained in Garcia-Valero et al (2015). Firstly, the ability of GCMs for representing the observed extreme CTs in the historical runs is assessed. All models represent satisfactory most CTs for all classifications, being the bias errors of the frequency appearance of the CTs always under the 15%. Results indicate that the CTs having the largest efficiencies in EHD production has the biggest increase along the next century. This leads to that all regions strongly increase the frequency appearance of EHD. The EHD increase is larger in the inner regions towards the north of Spain, reaching an increase of 3 times the current frequency at the end of this century . This shift is mainly attributable to changes in the atmospheric dynamics. It is very likely that the this value is a low boundary of EHD positive change, since most regional processes (feedbacks, persistence, etc) tends to increase high temperature events. In addition, an analysis of uncertainties has been carried out. An ANOVA analysis shows that the uncertainty associated to each source (GCMs, CT-class, RPC) depends on the region. However the general behavior is that the largest uncertainty is assigned to the GCM, while RCP and CT-class presents similar uncertainty.

  7. Carbon cycle extremes during the 21st century in CMIP5 models: Future evolution and attribution to climatic drivers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zscheischler, Jakob; Reichstein, Markus; von Buttlar, Jannis; Mu, Mingquan; Randerson, James T.; Mahecha, Miguel D.

    2014-12-01

    Climate extremes such as droughts and heat waves affect terrestrial ecosystems and may alter local carbon budgets. However, it still remains uncertain to what degree extreme impacts in the carbon cycle influence the carbon cycle-climate feedback both today and the near future. Here we analyze spatiotemporally contiguous negative extreme anomalies in gross primary production (GPP) and net ecosystem production (NEP) in model output of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble and investigate their future development and attribution to climatic drivers. We find that relative to the overall increase in global carbon uptake, negative extremes in GPP and NEP lose importance toward the end of the 21st century. This effect can be related to elevated CO2 concentrations and higher amounts of available water at the global scale, partially mitigating the impacts of droughts and heat waves, respectively. Overall, based on CMIP5 models, we hypothesize that terrestrial ecosystems might be more resilient against future climate extremes than previously thought. Future work will have to further scrutinize these results considering that various biological and biogeochemical feedbacks are not yet integrated within Earth system models.

  8. Climate extremes and climate change: The Russian heat wave and other climate extremes of 2010

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Trenberth, Kevin E.; Fasullo, John T.

    2012-09-01

    A global perspective is developed on a number of high impact climate extremes in 2010 through diagnostic studies of the anomalies, diabatic heating, and global energy and water cycles that demonstrate relationships among variables and across events. Natural variability, especially ENSO, and global warming from human influences together resulted in very high sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in several places that played a vital role in subsequent developments. Record high SSTs in the Northern Indian Ocean in May 2010, the Gulf of Mexico in August 2010, the Caribbean in September 2010, and north of Australia in December 2010 provided a source of unusually abundant atmospheric moisture for nearby monsoon rains and flooding in Pakistan, Colombia, and Queensland. The resulting anomalous diabatic heating in the northern Indian and tropical Atlantic Oceans altered the atmospheric circulation by forcing quasi-stationary Rossby waves and altering monsoons. The anomalous monsoonal circulations had direct links to higher latitudes: from Southeast Asia to southern Russia, and from Colombia to Brazil. Strong convection in the tropical Atlantic in northern summer 2010 was associated with a Rossby wave train that extended into Europe creating anomalous cyclonic conditions over the Mediterranean area while normal anticyclonic conditions shifted downstream where they likely interacted with an anomalously strong monsoon circulation, helping to support the persistent atmospheric anticyclonic regime over Russia. This set the stage for the "blocking" anticyclone and associated Russian heat wave and wild fires. Attribution is limited by shortcomings in models in replicating monsoons, teleconnections and blocking.

  9. Future trend in seasonal lengths and extreme temperature distributions over South Korea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Jangho

    2017-02-01

    CSEOF analysis is conducted on the daily mean, maximum, and minimum temperatures measured at 60 Korea Meteorological Administration stations in the period of 1979-2014. Each PC time series is detrended and fitted to an autoregressive (AR) model. The resulting AR models are used to generate 100 sets of synthetic PC time series for the period of 1979-2064, and the linear trends are added back to the resulting PC time series. Then, 100 sets of synthetic daily temperatures are produced by using the synthetic PC time series together with the The cyclostationary EOF (CSEOF) loading vectors. The statistics of the synthetic daily temperatures are similar to those of the original data during the observational period (1979-2064). Based on the synthetic datasets, future statistics including distribution of extreme temperatures and the length of four seasons have been analyzed. Average daily temperature in spring is expected to decrease by a small amount, whereas average temperatures in summer, fall and winter are expected to increase. Standard deviation of daily temperatures is expected to increase in all four seasons. The Generalized Extreme Value and Generalized Pareto distributions of extreme temperatures indicate that both warm and cold extremes are likely to increase in summer, while only warm extremes are predicted to increase significantly in winter. Thus, heat waves will increase and cold waves will decrease in number in future. Spring and fall will be shorter, whereas summer and winter will be longer. A statistical prediction carried out in the present study may serve as a baseline solution for numerical predictions using complex models.

  10. Extreme Rivers for Future Climates - Simulation Using Spatial Weather Generator

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kuchar, Leszek; Kosierb, Ryszard; Iwański, Sławomir; Jelonek, Leszek

    2014-05-01

    In this paper an application of spatial weather generator for estimation of probability distributions changes of river flows for selected climate change scenarios and different time horizons are presented. The main studies for the Kaczawa river basin located in Southwest region of Poland are carried out. For the estimation of probability distribution river flow, daily data of SR solar radiation, maximum and minimum air temperature, and total precipitation were obtained for sixteen stations of hydrological network from Institute of Meteorology and Water Management. In addition, daily data of flows from 6 closing water-gauges (partial catchments) were collected. Idea of flow simulation in the Kaczawa river catchment for future climate conditions given by different scenario shall be presented in the paper. First, on the basis of 25-years data series (1981-2005) for 16 stations of meteorological network within or around the Kaczawa river catchment basic climatology characteristics required by weather generator are computed. Then, spatial correlations between variables and stations are added to the characteristics. Next, on the basis of information coming from three climate change scenarios (GISS, GFDL and CCCM) for years 2040, 2060 and 2080 basic climatology characteristics are modified. Then, spatial weather generator SWGEN is used to produce 500 years of synthetic data for 16 stations, given time horizon and scenario. The year 2000 as the background of potential changes in river flow is used together with 500 years of synthetic data. Next, generated data are applied to hydrological model Mike SHE to simulate daily flows for closing water-gauges. The flow are evaluated with different temporal step and characterized by pdf functions. The application of spatial weather generator SWGEN combined with hydrological rainfall-runoff model (Mike SHE Ed. 2008) and climate change scenario, gives various possibilities to study changes in the river catchment coming up to 60

  11. Extreme Heat and Health: Perspectives from Health Service Providers in Rural and Remote Communities in South Australia

    PubMed Central

    Williams, Susan; Bi, Peng; Newbury, Jonathan; Robinson, Guy; Pisaniello, Dino; Saniotis, Arthur; Hansen, Alana

    2013-01-01

    Among the challenges for rural communities and health services in Australia, climate change and increasing extreme heat are emerging as additional stressors. Effective public health responses to extreme heat require an understanding of the impact on health and well-being, and the risk or protective factors within communities. This study draws on lived experiences to explore these issues in eleven rural and remote communities across South Australia, framing these within a socio-ecological model. Semi-structured interviews with health service providers (n = 13), and a thematic analysis of these data, has identified particular challenges for rural communities and their health services during extreme heat. The findings draw attention to the social impacts of extreme heat in rural communities, the protective factors (independence, social support, education, community safety), and challenges for adaptation (vulnerabilities, infrastructure, community demographics, housing and local industries). With temperatures increasing across South Australia, there is a need for local planning and low-cost strategies to address heat-exacerbating factors in rural communities, to minimise the impact of extreme heat in the future. PMID:24173140

  12. A Framework for Spatial Assessment of Local Level Vulnerability and Adaptive Capacity to Extreme Heat

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wilhelmi, O.; Hayden, M.; Harlan, S.; Ruddell, D.; Komatsu, K.; England, B.; Uejio, C.

    2008-12-01

    Changing climate is predicted to increase the intensity and impacts of heat waves prompting the need to develop preparedness and adaptation strategies that reduce societal vulnerability. Central to understanding societal vulnerability, is adaptive capacity, the potential of a system or population to modify its features/behaviors so as to better cope with existing and anticipated stresses and fluctuations. Adaptive capacity influences adaptation, the actual adjustments made to cope with the impacts from current and future hazardous heat events. Understanding societal risks, vulnerabilities and adaptive capacity to extreme heat events and climate change requires an interdisciplinary approach that includes information about weather and climate, the natural and built environment, social processes and characteristics, interactions with the stakeholders, and an assessment of community vulnerability. This project presents a framework for an interdisciplinary approach and a case study that explore linkages between quantitative and qualitative data for a more comprehensive understanding of local level vulnerability and adaptive capacity to extreme heat events in Phoenix, Arizona. In this talk, we will present a methodological framework for conducting collaborative research on societal vulnerability and adaptive capacity on a local level that includes integration of household surveys into a quantitative spatial assessment of societal vulnerability. We highlight a collaborative partnership among researchers, community leaders and public health officials. Linkages between assessment of local adaptive capacity and development of regional climate change adaptation strategies will be discussed.

  13. Urban Heat Island phenomenon in extreme continental climate (Astana, Kazakhstan)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Konstantinov, Pavel; Akhmetova, Alina

    2015-04-01

    Urban Heat Island (UHI) phenomenon is well known in scientific literature since first half of the 19th century [1]. By now a wide number of world capitals is described from climatological point of view, especially in mid-latitudes. In beginning of XXI century new studies focus on heat island of tropical cities. However dynamics UHI in extreme continental climates is insufficiently investigated, due to the fact that there isn't large cities in Europe and Northern America within that climate type. In this paper we investigate seasonal and diurnal dynamics UHI intensity for Astana, capital city of Kazakhstan (population larger than 835 000 within the city) including UHI intensity changes on different time scales. Now (since 1998) Astana is the second coldest capital city in the world after Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia [3] For this study we use the UHI investigation technology, described in [2]. According to this paper, we selected three stations: one located into city in high and midrise buildings area (including extensive lowrise and high-energy industrial - LCZ classification) and two others located in rural site (sparsely built or open-set and lightweight lowrise according LCZ classification). Also these stations must be close by distance (less than 100 km) and altitude. Therefore, first for Astana city were obtained numerical evaluations for UHI climate dynamics, UHI dependence of synoptic situations and total UHI climatology on monthly and daily averages. References: 1.Howard, L. (1833) The Climate of London, Deduced from Meteorological Observations. Volume 2, London. 2.Kukanova E.A., Konstantinov P.I. An urban heat islands climatology in Russia and linkages to the climate change In Geophysical Research Abstracts, volume 16 of EGU General Assembly, pages EGU2014-10833-1, Germany, 2014. Germany. 3.www.pogoda.ru.net

  14. It's the Heat AND the Humidity -- Assessment of Extreme Heat Scenarios to Enable the Assessment of Climate Impacts on Public Health

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Crosson, William L; Al-Hamdan, Mohammad Z.; Economou, Sigrid, A.; Estes, Maurice G.; Estes, Sue M.; Puckett, Mark; Quattrochi, Dale A

    2013-01-01

    In the United States, extreme heat is the most deadly weather-related hazard. In the face of a warming climate and urbanization, which contributes to local-scale urban heat islands, it is very likely that extreme heat events (EHEs) will become more common and more severe in the U.S. In a NASA-funded project supporting the National Climate Assessment, we are providing historical and future measures of extreme heat to enable assessments of the impacts of heat on public health over the coterminous U.S. We use atmospheric temperature and humidity information from meteorological reanalysis and from Global Climate Models (GCMs) to provide data on past and future heat events. The project s emphasis is on providing assessments of the magnitude, frequency and geographic distribution of extreme heat in the U.S. to facilitate public health studies. In our approach, long-term climate change is captured with GCM output, and the temporal and spatial characteristics of short-term extremes are represented by the reanalysis data. Two future time horizons, 2040 and 2090, are the focus of future assessments; these are compared to the recent past period of 1981-2000. We are characterizing regional-scale temperature and humidity conditions using GCM output for two climate change scenarios (A2 and A1B) defined in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). For each future period, 20 years of multi-model GCM output have been analyzed to develop a heat stress climatology based on statistics of extreme heat indicators. Differences between the two future and past periods have been used to define temperature and humidity changes on a monthly time scale and regional spatial scale. These changes, combined with hourly historical meteorological data at a spatial scale (12 km) much finer than that of GCMs, enable us to create future climate realizations, from which we compute the daily heat stress measures and related spatially-specific climatological fields. These include the mean annual

  15. Future frequencies of extreme weather events in the National Wildlife Refuges of the conterminous U.S.

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Martinuzzi, Sebastian; Allstadt, Andrew J.; Bateman, Brooke L.; Heglund, Patricia J.; Pidgeon, Anna M.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Vavrus, Stephen J.; Radeloff, Volker C.

    2016-01-01

    Climate change is a major challenge for managers of protected areas world-wide, and managers need information about future climate conditions within protected areas. Prior studies of climate change effects in protected areas have largely focused on average climatic conditions. However, extreme weather may have stronger effects on wildlife populations and habitats than changes in averages. Our goal was to quantify future changes in the frequency of extreme heat, drought, and false springs, during the avian breeding season, in 415 National Wildlife Refuges in the conterminous United States. We analyzed spatially detailed data on extreme weather frequencies during the historical period (1950–2005) and under different scenarios of future climate change by mid- and late-21st century. We found that all wildlife refuges will likely experience substantial changes in the frequencies of extreme weather, but the types of projected changes differed among refuges. Extreme heat is projected to increase dramatically in all wildlife refuges, whereas changes in droughts and false springs are projected to increase or decrease on a regional basis. Half of all wildlife refuges are projected to see increases in frequency (> 20% higher than the current rate) in at least two types of weather extremes by mid-century. Wildlife refuges in the Southwest and Pacific Southwest are projected to exhibit the fastest rates of change, and may deserve extra attention. Climate change adaptation strategies in protected areas, such as the U.S. wildlife refuges, may need to seriously consider future changes in extreme weather, including the considerable spatial variation of these changes.

  16. Mechanisms of the Extreme Temperatures and the Precipitation Events in the Future over Korean Peninsula using CORDEX Data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Hyomee; Moon, Byung-Kwon

    2014-05-01

    This study investigates the formation mechanisms of the extreme temperatures and the extreme precipitation in the future Korean Peninsula due to global warming. CORDEX-East Asia data such as the 2 m air temperature, precipitation, sea level pressure, 850 hPa wind, 850 hPa temperature, and 850 hPa specific humidity are analyzed to characterize atmospheric conditions related to future extreme events. The extreme temperatures (>38 °C ) in the mid-southern regions of Korea tend to occur as a result of the heat accumulation by the warm advection originating from eastern China. Adding to advection, the Föhn phenomenon seems to produce more warming. In the case of precipitation, extreme events (>500 mm day-1) tend to occur as a result of the transport of water vapor by the south-westerly flow, with precipitation belt stretching from eastern China to Korea. A climate change also leads to an increase in the mean, variance, frequency, and 95 percentile value of the extreme events. This study will facilitate a better understanding of the formation mechanisms of the extreme events over Korea in a warming environment.

  17. Excess Mortality Attributable to Extreme Heat in New York City, 1997-2013.

    PubMed

    Matte, Thomas D; Lane, Kathryn; Ito, Kazuhiko

    2016-01-01

    Extreme heat event excess mortality has been estimated statistically to assess impacts, evaluate heat emergency response, and project climate change risks. We estimated annual excess non-external-cause deaths associated with extreme heat events in New York City (NYC). Extreme heat events were defined as days meeting current National Weather Service forecast criteria for issuing heat advisories in NYC based on observed maximum daily heat index values from LaGuardia Airport. Outcomes were daily non-external-cause death counts for NYC residents from May through September from 1997 to 2013 (n = 337,162). The cumulative relative risk (CRR) of death associated with extreme heat events was estimated in a Poisson time-series model for each year using an unconstrained distributed lag for days 0-3 accommodating over dispersion, and adjusting for within-season trends and day of week. Attributable death counts were computed by year based on individual year CRRs. The pooled CRR per extreme heat event day was 1.11 (95%CI 1.08-1.14). The estimated annual excess non-external-cause deaths attributable to heat waves ranged from -14 to 358, with a median of 121. Point estimates of heat wave-attributable deaths were greater than 0 in all years but one and were correlated with the number of heat wave days (r = 0.81). Average excess non-external-cause deaths associated with extreme heat events were nearly 11-fold greater than hyperthermia deaths. Estimated extreme heat event-associated excess deaths may be a useful indicator of the impact of extreme heat events, but single-year estimates are currently too imprecise to identify short-term changes in risk.

  18. Future extreme sea level seesaws in the tropical Pacific.

    PubMed

    Widlansky, Matthew J; Timmermann, Axel; Cai, Wenju

    2015-09-01

    Global mean sea levels are projected to gradually rise in response to greenhouse warming. However, on shorter time scales, modes of natural climate variability in the Pacific, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), can affect regional sea level variability and extremes, with considerable impacts on coastal ecosystems and island nations. How these shorter-term sea level fluctuations will change in association with a projected increase in extreme El Niño and its atmospheric variability remains unknown. Using present-generation coupled climate models forced with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations and subtracting the effect of global mean sea level rise, we find that climate change will enhance El Niño-related sea level extremes, especially in the tropical southwestern Pacific, where very low sea level events, locally known as Taimasa, are projected to double in occurrence. Additionally, and throughout the tropical Pacific, prolonged interannual sea level inundations are also found to become more likely with greenhouse warming and increased frequency of extreme La Niña events, thus exacerbating the coastal impacts of the projected global mean sea level rise.

  19. Future extreme sea level seesaws in the tropical Pacific

    PubMed Central

    Widlansky, Matthew J.; Timmermann, Axel; Cai, Wenju

    2015-01-01

    Global mean sea levels are projected to gradually rise in response to greenhouse warming. However, on shorter time scales, modes of natural climate variability in the Pacific, such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), can affect regional sea level variability and extremes, with considerable impacts on coastal ecosystems and island nations. How these shorter-term sea level fluctuations will change in association with a projected increase in extreme El Niño and its atmospheric variability remains unknown. Using present-generation coupled climate models forced with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations and subtracting the effect of global mean sea level rise, we find that climate change will enhance El Niño–related sea level extremes, especially in the tropical southwestern Pacific, where very low sea level events, locally known as Taimasa, are projected to double in occurrence. Additionally, and throughout the tropical Pacific, prolonged interannual sea level inundations are also found to become more likely with greenhouse warming and increased frequency of extreme La Niña events, thus exacerbating the coastal impacts of the projected global mean sea level rise. PMID:26601272

  20. Heat-related deaths after an extreme heat event--four states, 2012, and United States, 1999-2009.

    PubMed

    2013-06-07

    On June 29, 2012, a rapidly moving line of intense thunderstorms with high winds swept across the midwestern and eastern United States, causing widespread damage and power outages. Afterward, the area experienced extreme heat, with maximum temperatures exceeding 100°F (37.8°C). This report describes 32 heat-related deaths in Maryland, Ohio, Virginia, and West Virginia that occurred during the 2 weeks following the storms and power outages. Median age of the decedents was 65 years, and most of the excessive heat exposures occurred within homes. During 1999-2009, an annual average of 658 heat-related deaths occurred in the United States. Heat-related deaths are preventable, and heat response plans should be in place before an extreme heat event (EHE). Interventions should focus on identifying and limiting heat exposure among vulnerable populations.

  1. Woven Thermal Protection System Based Heat-shield for Extreme Entry Environments Technology (HEEET)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chinnapongse, Ronald; Ellerbe, Donald; Stackpoole, Maragaret; Venkatapathy, Ethiraj; Beerman, Adam; Feldman, Jay; Peterson Keith; Prabhu, Dinesh; Dillman, Robert; Munk, Michelle

    2013-01-01

    NASA's future robotic missions utilizing an entry system into Venus and the outer planets, namely, Saturn, Uranus, Neptune, result in extremely severe entry conditions that exceed the capabilities of state of the art low to mid density ablators such as PICA or Avcoat. Therefore mission planners typically assume the use of a fully dense carbon phenolic heat shield similar to what was flown on Pioneer Venus and Galileo. Carbon phenolic (CP) is a robust TPS material however its high density and relatively high thermal conductivity constrain mission planners to steep entries, with high heat fluxes and pressures and short entry durations, in order for CP to be feasible from a mass perspective. The high entry conditions pose challenges for certification in existing ground based test facilities and the longer-­-term sustainability of CP will continue to pose challenges. In 2012 the Game Changing Development Program (GCDP) in NASA's Space Technology Mission Directorate funded NASA ARC to investigate the feasibility of a Woven Thermal Protection System (WTPS) to meet the needs of NASA's most challenging entry missions. This project was highly successful demonstrating that a Woven TPS solution compares favorably to CP in performance in simulated reentry environments and provides the opportunity to manufacture graded materials that should result in overall reduced mass solutions and enable a much broader set of missions than does CP. Building off the success of the WTPS project GCDP has funded a follow on project to further mature and scale up the WTPS concept for insertion into future NASA robotic missions. The matured WTPS will address the CP concerns associated with ground based test limitations and sustainability. This presentation will briefly discuss results from the WTPS Project and the plans for WTPS maturation into a heat-­-shield for extreme entry environment.

  2. Woven Thermal Protection System Based Heat-shield for Extreme Entry Environments Technology (HEEET)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ellerby, Donald; Venkatapathy, Ethiraj; Stackpoole, Margaret; Chinnapongse, Ronald; Munk, Michelle; Dillman, Robert; Feldman, Jay; Prabhu, Dinesh; Beerman, Adam

    2013-01-01

    NASA's future robotic missions utilizing an entry system into Venus and the outer planets, namely, Saturn, Uranus, Neptune, result in extremely high entry conditions that exceed the capabilities of state of the art low to mid density ablators such as PICA or Avcoat. Therefore mission planners typically assume the use of a fully dense carbon phenolic heat shield similar to what was flown on Pioneer Venus and Galileo. Carbon phenolic is a robust TPS material however its high density and relatively high thermal conductivity constrain mission planners to steep entries, with high heat fluxes and pressures and short entry durations, in order for CP to be feasible from a mass perspective. The high entry conditions pose challenges for certification in existing ground based test facilities and the longer-term sustainability of CP will continue to pose challenges. In 2012 the Game Changing Development Program (GCDP) in NASA's Space Technology Mission Directorate funded NASA ARC to investigate the feasibility of a Woven Thermal Protection System (WTPS) to meet the needs of NASA's most challenging entry missions. This project was highly successful demonstrating that a Woven TPS solution compares favorably to CP in performance in simulated reentry environments and provides the opportunity to manufacture graded materials that should result in overall reduced mass solutions and enable a much broader set of missions than does CP. Building off the success of the WTPS project GCDP has funded a follow on project to further mature and scale up the WTPS concept for insertion into future NASA robotic missions. The matured WTPS will address the CP concerns associated with ground based test limitations and sustainability. This presentation will briefly discuss results from the WTPS Project and the plans for WTPS maturation into a heat-shield for extreme entry environment.

  3. Future Trends in Extreme Temperatures over the Western U.S.: The Influence of Terrain and Coastlines

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brewer, M.

    2015-12-01

    A number of studies have suggested that heat waves will increase in frequency, intensity, and duration under anthropogenic global warming. However, these trends are less understood in regions of complex terrain or in coastal regions where temperature gradients are relatively larger and mesoscale features are important. Thus it is important to understand the regional impacts of terrain and land/water contrasts on heat extremes in a warming world, and identify changes in the conditions that drive such extremes. The northwest U.S. is a region with such surface complexity, where regional heat extremes arise from synoptic/mesoscale interactions between the large-scale flow and local topography This talk will analyze changes to the synoptic and mesoscale conditions associated with heat extremes over the northwest U.S. by utilizing CMIP5 global climate model simulations, and dynamically downscaled regional climate models. An analysis of changes in mid- to low-level tropospheric temperature, offshore/onshore flow, soil moisture, precipitation, and cloud fraction are described, as well as how these changes interact with regional terrain and land/water contrasts to alter the temperature distributions over the region. CMIP5 models suggest that low-level zonal wind distributions over the northwest U.S. become narrower, leading to fewer days with strong offshore flow. Soil moisture is projected to decline over the region due to reductions in clouds and precipitation, as well as general warming. Historical and future regional temperature distributions will be described, and it will be shown that even though climate models predict increases in heat extremes for western Oregon and Washington, these increases are far fewer compared to inland areas. The variance over most inland locations increases, with the exception of the northwest U.S., where variance doesn't change. The importance of regional terrain and land/water contrasts in explaining these changes will be described.

  4. Extremely high heat fluxes beneath impinging liquid jets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, X.; Lienhard, J. H., V.

    1993-05-01

    Measurements of jet-impingement heat fluxes up to 400 MW/sq m were obtained using a specially designed experimental arrangement where a thin metal plate was heated from one side with a plasma arc and cooled from the other side with an unsubmerged impinging water jet produced by a 34 MPa piston pump supplying a large cylindrical plenum. The results of this study, where heating was confined to the stagnation region, show no evidence of a critical heat flux, even up to the maximum power applied. The large fluxes were limited only by wall failure and the power of the heating source, and not by liquid-side thermal resistance.

  5. Selected human physiological responses during extreme heat: the Badwater Ultramarathon.

    PubMed

    Brown, Jacqueline S; Connolly, Declan A

    2015-06-01

    The purpose of this article was to examine various physiological responses during an ultramarathon held in extreme heat. Our investigation was conducted at The Badwater Ultramarathon, a nonstop 217-km run across Death Valley, CA, USA. This study recruited 4 male athletes, average age of 43 (±SD) (±7.35), (range) 39-54 years. All 4 subjects successfully completed the race with a mean finish time of 36:20:23 hours (±SD) (±3:08:38) (range) 34:05:25-40:51:46 hours, and a mean running speed of 6.03 km·h(-1) (±SD) (±0.05), (range) 5.3-6.4 km·h(-1). The anthropometric variables measured were (mean, ±SD) mass 79.33 kg (±6.43), height 1.80 m (±0.09), body surface area 1.93 m2 (±0.16), body mass index 24.38 kg·m(-2) (±1.25), fat mass 13.88% (±2.29), and body water 62.08% (±1.56). Selected physiological variables measured were core body temperature, skin temperature, heart rate, breathing rate, and blood pressure. Rate of perceived intensity, rate of thermal sensation, and environmental factors were also monitored. Our study found (mean and ±SD) core body temperature 37.49° C (±0.88); skin temperature 31.13° C (±3.06); heart rate 106.79 b·min(-1) (±5.11); breathing rate 36.55 b·min(-1) (±0.60); blood pressure 128/86 mm Hg (±9.24/4.62); rate of perceived intensity 5.49 (±1.26); rate of thermal sensation 4.69 (±0.37); daytime high temperature of 46.6° C, and a mean temperature of 28.35° C. Our fastest finisher demonstrated a lower overall core body temperature (36.91° C) when compared with the group mean (37.49° C). In contrast to previous findings, our data show that the fastest finisher demonstrates a lower overall core body temperature. We conclude that it may be possible that a time threshold exists whereby success in longer duration events requires an ability to maintain a lower core body temperature vs. tolerating a higher core body temperature.

  6. Self-contained heat rejection module for future spacecraft

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fleming, M. L.; Williams, J. L.; Baskett, J. D.; Leach, J. W.

    1975-01-01

    This paper discusses development of a Self-Contained Heat Rejection Module (SHRM) which can be used on a wide variety of future spacecraft launched by the space shuttle orbiter. The SHRM contains radiators which are deployed by a scissor-mechanism and the flow equipment including pumps, accumulator, by-pass valves, and controllers necessary to reject heat from those radiators. Heat transfer between SHRM and the parent vehicle is effected by a contact heat exchanger. This device provides heat transfer between two separate flow loops through a mechanical connection. This approach reduces the time required to attach the SHRM to the payload, and increases the reliability of the SHRM flow loop since breaking into the fluid system in the field is not required. The SHRM concept also includes a refrigeration system to increase heat rejection capacity in adverse environments, or to provide for a lower return temperature, down to -23 C.

  7. Analysis of meteorological parameters of different extreme heat waves

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Heat waves have caused severe losses in beef cattle feedlots and dairies in different areas of the cattle producing areas of the world. A comparison of climatic conditions that have resulted in cattle deaths has been completed. Analyses of lethal heat waves in northeast Nebraska in 1999 and north ...

  8. High resolution climate projections to assess the future vulnerability of European urban areas to climatological extreme events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fallmann, Joachim; Wagner, Sven; Emeis, Stefan

    2017-02-01

    Results from high resolution 7-km WRF regional climate model (RCM) simulations are used to analyse changes in the occurrence frequencies of heat waves, of precipitation extremes and of the duration of the winter time freezing period for highly populated urban areas in Central Europe. The projected climate change impact is assessed for 11 urban areas based on climate indices for a future period (2021-2050) compared to a reference period (1971-2000) using the IPCC AR4 A1B Scenario as boundary conditions. These climate indices are calculated from daily maximum, minimum and mean temperatures as well as precipitation amounts. By this, the vulnerability of these areas to future climate conditions is to be investigated. The number of heat waves, as well as the number of single hot days, tropical nights and heavy precipitation events is projected to increase in the near future. In addition, the number of frost days is significantly decreased. Probability density functions of monthly mean summer time temperatures show an increase of the 95th percentile of about 1-3 °C for the future compared with the reference period. The projected increase of cooling and decrease of heating degree days indicate the possible impact on urban energy consumption under future climate conditions.

  9. Attributing Human Mortality During Extreme Heat Waves to Anthropogenic Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mitchell, D.; Heaviside, C.; Vardoulakis, S.; Huntingford, C.; Masato, G.; Guillod, B. P.; Frumhoff, P. C.; Bowery, A.; Allen, M. R.

    2015-12-01

    Climate change is the biggest global health threat of the 21st century (Costello et al, 2009; Watts et al, 2015). Perhaps one of the clearest examples of this is the summer heat wave of 2003, which saw up to seventy thousand excess deaths across Europe (Robine et al, 2007). The extreme temperatures are now thought to be significantly enhanced due to anthropogenic climate change (Stott et al, 2004; Christidis et al, 2015). Here, we consider not only the Europe-wide temperature response of the heat wave, but the localised response using a high-resolution regional model simulating 2003 climate conditions thousands of times. For the first time, by employing end-to-end attribution, we attribute changes in mortality to the increased radiative forcing from climate change, with a specific focus on London and Paris. We show that in both cities, a sizable proportion of the excess mortality can be attributed to human emissions. With European heat waves projected to increase into the future, these results provide a worrying reality for what may lie ahead. Christidis, Nikolaos, Gareth S. Jones, and Peter A. Stott. "Dramatically increasing chance of extremely hot summers since the 2003 European heatwave." Nature Climate Change (2014). Costello, Anthony, et al. "Managing the health effects of climate change: lancet and University College London Institute for Global Health Commission." The Lancet 373.9676 (2009): 1693-1733. Stott, Peter A., Dáithí A. Stone, and Myles R. Allen. "Human contribution to the European heatwave of 2003." Nature 432.7017 (2004): 610-614 Watts, N., et al. "Health and climate change: policy responses to protect public health." Lancet. 2015.

  10. A non-equilibrium model for soil heating and moisture transport during extreme surface heating

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Massman, W. J.

    2015-03-01

    With increasing use of prescribed fire by land managers and increasing likelihood of wildfires due to climate change comes the need to improve modeling capability of extreme heating of soils during fires. This issue is addressed here by developing a one-dimensional non-equilibrium model of soil evaporation and transport of heat, soil moisture, and water vapor, for use with surface forcing ranging from daily solar cycles to extreme conditions encountered during fires. The model employs a linearized Crank-Nicolson scheme for the conservation equations of energy and mass and its performance is evaluated against dynamic soil temperature and moisture observations obtained during laboratory experiments on soil samples exposed to surface heat fluxes ranging between 10 000 and 50 000 W m-2. The Hertz-Knudsen equation is the basis for constructing the model's non-equilibrium evaporative source term. The model includes a dynamic residual soil moisture as a function of temperature and soil water potential, which allows the model to capture some of the dynamic aspects of the strongly bound soil moisture that seems to require temperatures well beyond 150 °C to fully evaporate. Furthermore, the model emulates the observed increase in soil moisture ahead of the drying front and the hiatus in the soil temperature rise during the strongly evaporative stage of drying. It also captures the observed rapid evaporation of soil moisture that occurs at relatively low temperatures (50-90 °C). Sensitivity analyses indicate that the model's success results primarily from the use of a temperature and moisture potential dependent condensation coefficient in the evaporative source term. The model's solution for water vapor density (and vapor pressure), which can exceed one standard atmosphere, cannot be experimentally verified, but they are supported by results from (earlier and very different) models developed for somewhat different purposes and for different porous media. Overall, this non

  11. Warm-season diurnal circulations and heat extremes over the northwest U.S

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brewer, Matthew C.

    Summer synoptic circulations over the northwest U.S., and their interactions with regional terrain, land/water contrasts, and surface heating, give rise to a variety of fascinating meteorological phenomena, many of which have yet to be explored. Furthermore, it is largely unknown how projected future warming associated with increased greenhouse gases will modify these important features. The work herein seeks to ameliorate this with a comprehensive examination of two important aspects of northwest U.S. summer weather and climate: diurnal circulations and changes to the conditions associated with extreme temperatures under anthropogenic global warming. To simulate regional diurnal circulations, GFS model output was obtained for July and August 2009-2011. These data were categorized into hour of the day, composited, and the resulting files were used to initialize and provide boundary conditions to a WRF (version 3.5) model run. It was shown that, when compared to observations, this WRF run sufficiently simulates average diurnal variability. Using this simulation, the diurnal circulations of the region were described, including several important wind features within the Strait of Juan de Fuca, the Snoqualmie Pass, and the Columbia River Gorge. Also, regional nocturnal low-level wind maxima are described, including one over the northern Willamette valley and another over the high plateau of eastern Oregon. Recent work by the authors has elucidated the physical mechanisms that drive heat extremes over the northwest U.S., including the necessity of a ridge aloft, with associated subsidence and advection warming. Also, easterly flow is crucial for keeping the marine air at bay, and producing downslope flow and adiabatic warming on the western slopes of regional north-south terrain barriers. Given the rising temperatures projected under anthropogenic global warming, how are these conditions, and associated low-level temperature distributions, projected to change? As a

  12. Intra-seasonal drivers of extreme heat over Australia in observations and POAMA-2

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marshall, A. G.; Hudson, D.; Wheeler, M. C.; Alves, O.; Hendon, H. H.; Pook, M. J.; Risbey, J. S.

    2014-10-01

    We assess the occurrence and probability of extreme heat over Australia in association with the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), persistent anticyclones over the Tasman Sea, and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), which have previously been shown to be key drivers of intra-seasonal variations of Australian climate. In this study, extreme heat events are defined as occurring when weekly-mean maximum temperature anomalies exceed the 90th percentile. The observed probability of exceedance is reduced during the positive phase of the SAM and enhanced during the negative phase of the SAM over most of Australia. Persistent anticyclones over the Tasman Sea are described in terms of (1) split-flow blocking at 160°E and (2) high pressure systems located in the vicinity of the subtropical ridge (STRHs), about 10° north of the split-flow blocking region, for which we devise a simple index. Split-flow blocks and STRHs have contrasting impacts on the occurrence of extreme heat over Australia, with STRHs showing enhanced probability of upper decile heat events over southern Australia in all seasons. The observed probability of an upper decile heat event varies according to MJO phase and time of year, with the greatest impact of the MJO on extreme heat occurring over southern Australia (including the Mallee agricultural region) in spring during phases 2-3. We show that this modulation of the probability of extreme heat by the SAM, persistent anticyclones over the Tasman Sea, and the MJO is well simulated in the Bureau of Meteorology dynamical intra-seasonal/seasonal forecast model POAMA-2 at lead times of 2-3 weeks. We further show that predictability of heat extremes increases in association with the negative SAM phase, STRH and MJO, thus providing a basis for skilful intra-seasonal prediction of heat extremes.

  13. Global and regional changes in exposure to extreme heat and the relative contributions of climate and population change.

    PubMed

    Liu, Zhao; Anderson, Bruce; Yan, Kai; Dong, Weihua; Liao, Hua; Shi, Peijun

    2017-03-07

    The frequency and intensity of extreme heat wave events have increased in the past several decades and are likely to continue to increase in the future under the influence of human-induced climate change. Exposure refers to people, property, systems, or other elements present in hazard zones that are thereby subject to potential losses. Exposure to extreme heat and changes therein are not just determined by climate changes but also population changes. Here we analyze output for three scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions and socio-economic growth to estimate future exposure change taking account of both climate and population factors. We find that for the higher emission scenario (RCP8.5-SSP3), the global exposure increases nearly 30-fold by 2100. The average exposure for Africa is over 118 times greater than it has been historically, while the exposure for Europe increases by only a factor of four. Importantly, in the absence of climate change, exposure is reduced by 75-95% globally and across all geographic regions, as compared with exposure under the high emission scenario. Under lower emission scenarios RCP4.5-SSP2 and RCP2.6-SSP1, the global exposure is reduced by 65% and 85% respectively, highlighting the efficacy of mitigation efforts in reducing exposure to extreme heat.

  14. Global and regional changes in exposure to extreme heat and the relative contributions of climate and population change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Zhao; Anderson, Bruce; Yan, Kai; Dong, Weihua; Liao, Hua; Shi, Peijun

    2017-03-01

    The frequency and intensity of extreme heat wave events have increased in the past several decades and are likely to continue to increase in the future under the influence of human-induced climate change. Exposure refers to people, property, systems, or other elements present in hazard zones that are thereby subject to potential losses. Exposure to extreme heat and changes therein are not just determined by climate changes but also population changes. Here we analyze output for three scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions and socio-economic growth to estimate future exposure change taking account of both climate and population factors. We find that for the higher emission scenario (RCP8.5-SSP3), the global exposure increases nearly 30-fold by 2100. The average exposure for Africa is over 118 times greater than it has been historically, while the exposure for Europe increases by only a factor of four. Importantly, in the absence of climate change, exposure is reduced by 75–95% globally and across all geographic regions, as compared with exposure under the high emission scenario. Under lower emission scenarios RCP4.5-SSP2 and RCP2.6-SSP1, the global exposure is reduced by 65% and 85% respectively, highlighting the efficacy of mitigation efforts in reducing exposure to extreme heat.

  15. Global and regional changes in exposure to extreme heat and the relative contributions of climate and population change

    PubMed Central

    Liu, Zhao; Anderson, Bruce; Yan, Kai; Dong, Weihua; Liao, Hua; Shi, Peijun

    2017-01-01

    The frequency and intensity of extreme heat wave events have increased in the past several decades and are likely to continue to increase in the future under the influence of human-induced climate change. Exposure refers to people, property, systems, or other elements present in hazard zones that are thereby subject to potential losses. Exposure to extreme heat and changes therein are not just determined by climate changes but also population changes. Here we analyze output for three scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions and socio-economic growth to estimate future exposure change taking account of both climate and population factors. We find that for the higher emission scenario (RCP8.5-SSP3), the global exposure increases nearly 30-fold by 2100. The average exposure for Africa is over 118 times greater than it has been historically, while the exposure for Europe increases by only a factor of four. Importantly, in the absence of climate change, exposure is reduced by 75–95% globally and across all geographic regions, as compared with exposure under the high emission scenario. Under lower emission scenarios RCP4.5-SSP2 and RCP2.6-SSP1, the global exposure is reduced by 65% and 85% respectively, highlighting the efficacy of mitigation efforts in reducing exposure to extreme heat. PMID:28266567

  16. A Review of Recent Advances in Research on Extreme Heat Events

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Horton, Radley M.; Mankin, Justin S.; Lesk, Corey; Coffel, Ethan; Raymond, Colin

    2016-01-01

    Reviewing recent literature, we report that changes in extreme heat event characteristics such as magnitude, frequency, and duration are highly sensitive to changes in mean global-scale warming. Numerous studies have detected significant changes in the observed occurrence of extreme heat events, irrespective of how such events are defined. Further, a number of these studies have attributed present-day changes in the risk of individual heat events and the documented global-scale increase in such events to anthropogenic-driven warming. Advances in process-based studies of heat events have focused on the proximate land-atmosphere interactions through soil moisture anomalies, and changes in occurrence of the underlying atmospheric circulation associated with heat events in the mid-latitudes. While evidence for a number of hypotheses remains limited, climate change nevertheless points to tail risks of possible changes in heat extremes that could exceed estimates generated from model outputs of mean temperature. We also explore risks associated with compound extreme events and nonlinear impacts associated with extreme heat.

  17. Emergence of heat extremes attributable to anthropogenic influences

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    King, Andrew D.; Black, Mitchell T.; Min, Seung-Ki; Fischer, Erich M.; Mitchell, Daniel M.; Harrington, Luke J.; Perkins-Kirkpatrick, Sarah E.

    2016-04-01

    Climate scientists have demonstrated that a substantial fraction of the probability of numerous recent extreme events may be attributed to human-induced climate change. However, it is likely that for temperature extremes occurring over previous decades a fraction of their probability was attributable to anthropogenic influences. We identify the first record-breaking warm summers and years for which a discernible contribution can be attributed to human influence. We find a significant human contribution to the probability of record-breaking global temperature events as early as the 1930s. Since then, all the last 16 record-breaking hot years globally had an anthropogenic contribution to their probability of occurrence. Aerosol-induced cooling delays the timing of a significant human contribution to record-breaking events in some regions. Without human-induced climate change recent hot summers and years would be very unlikely to have occurred.

  18. Summertime extreme heat events and increased risk of acute myocardial infarction hospitalizations.

    PubMed

    Fisher, Jared A; Jiang, Chengsheng; Soneja, Sutyajeet I; Mitchell, Clifford; Puett, Robin C; Sapkota, Amir

    2017-02-08

    Few studies have examined the association between exposure to extreme heat events and risk of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) or demonstrated which populations are most vulnerable to the effects of extreme heat. We defined extreme heat events as days when the daily maximum temperature (TMAX) exceeded the location- and calendar day-specific 95th percentile of the distribution of daily TMAX during the 30-year baseline period (1960-1989). We used a time-stratified case-crossover design to analyze the association between exposure to extreme heat events and risk of hospitalization for AMI in the summer months (June-August) with 0, 1, or 2 lag days. There were a total of 32,670 AMI hospitalizations during the summer months in Maryland between 2000 and 2012. Overall, extreme heat events on the day of hospitalization were associated with an increased risk of AMI (lag 0 OR=1.11; 95% CI: 1.05-1.17). Results considering lag periods immediately before hospitalization were comparable, but effect estimates varied among several population subgroups. As extreme weather events are expected to become more frequent and intense in response to our changing climate, community-specific adaptation strategies are needed to account for the differential susceptibility across ethnic subgroups and geographic areas.Journal of Exposure Science and Environmental Epidemiology advance online publication, 8 February 2017; doi:10.1038/jes.2016.83.

  19. Recent Advances in Regional Climate System Modeling and ClimateChange Analyses of Extreme Heat

    SciTech Connect

    Miller, Norman L.

    2004-09-24

    During the period May 2003 to May 2004, there were two CEC/PIER funded primary research activities by the Atmosphere and Ocean Sciences Group/Earth Science Division at LBNL. These activities are the implementation and testing of the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Land Model (CLM) into MM5, and the analysis of extreme heat days under a new set of climate simulations. The new version of MM5,MM5-CLM, has been tested for a 90 day snowmelt period in the northwestern U.S. Results show that this new code upgrade, as compared to the MM5-NOAH, has improved snowmelt, temperature, and precipitation when compared to observations. These are due in part to a subgrid scheme,advanced snow processes, and advanced vegetation. The climate change analysis is the upper and lower IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios, representing fossil fuel intensive and energy conserving future emission scenarios, and medium and low sensitivity Global Climate Models. Results indicate that California cities will see increases in the number of heat wave and temperature threshold days from two to six times.These results may be viewed as potential outcomes based on today's decisions on emissions.

  20. Urban effects on extreme heat in a mid-sized North American city

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schatz, J.; Kucharik, C. J.

    2013-12-01

    As climate change drives global temperatures higher, heat waves are projected to increase in frequency, intensity, and duration, particularly in cities where the urban heat island effect can further raise local temperatures. Cities contain 50% of the global population and 80% of the North American population, and these percentages are projected to reach 70% globally and 87% in North America by 2030. This creates a need to understand the nature of heat events not just globally but also within cities where local climate variation can be substantial. That local variation could prove highly consequential for heat adaptation in cities, making it important to understand the dynamics of extreme heat within urban landscapes. Our study addresses this need by characterizing 400m-resolution variation in air temperature and heat index during a historically hot year in Madison, Wisconsin. Madison is a mid-sized temperate city with a metropolitan area population of 568,593. It is surrounded by several large lakes and a complex rural landscape of agriculture, forests, wetlands, and grasslands. In 2012, Madison experienced its hottest year and third hottest summer on record, with the Madison airport reporting 39 days exceeding 90°F compared to an average of 9 days. In March 2012, we installed 135 Onset HOBO ProV2 T/RH sensors across the Madison area to record air temperature and relative humidity at 15 minute intervals. The data from this network provides a unique opportunity to study small-scale spatial variation in the magnitude and duration of hot conditions that are projected to become more common in the future. Our sensors recorded substantial variation in the magnitude and duration of high temperatures and heat indices during the summer of 2012. For temperature, the densest parts of the city experienced >200 hours ≥90°F compared to <100 hours in many rural areas. Temperatures ≥100°F occurred up to 22 hours in some parts of the city versus 0 hours in much of the rural

  1. Regional maps of occupational heat exposure: past, present, and potential future

    PubMed Central

    Hyatt, Olivia M.; Lemke, Bruno; Kjellstrom, Tord

    2010-01-01

    Background An important feature of climate change is increasing human heat exposure in workplaces without cooling systems in tropical and subtropical countries. Detailed gridded heat exposure maps will provide essential information for public health authorities. Objectives To develop and test methods for calculating occupational heat exposures and present results in easily interpreted maps. Design Published formulas for a common occupational heat exposure index, the WBGT (Wet Bulb Globe Temperature), were used in combination with global gridded climate data to calculate heat exposure in 0.5° grid squares. Monthly averages of daily maximum temperatures, as indicators of typical temperatures during the hottest part of the day, and corresponding water vapour pressures produced estimates of monthly WBGT indoors (without cooling systems) or outdoors in the shade. Results The maps show the WBGT within four hot regions of the world during the three hottest months in 1975 and 2000: Australia, South Asia, Southern Africa, Central America, and southern US. Between 1975 and 2000 a WBGT increase of 0.5–1°C was common and the maps show clear decreases in some places. The time trends fit with the development of global climate change. The high WBGT values (particularly in South Asia) already cause excessive occupational heat exposures during the three hottest months. If continued climate change increases WBGT by 3°C, our maps identify areas where occupational heat stress in non-cooled workplaces will be extreme. Conclusions The mapping method provides a rapid visual impression of occupational heat exposures in large regions of the world. The local changes in WBGT between 1975 and 2000 fit with the global climate change trends. Future increases of WBGT may create extreme heat exposure situations in large areas of the world. PMID:21165172

  2. General Population Knowledge about Extreme Heat: A Cross-Sectional Survey in Lisbon and Madrid

    PubMed Central

    Gil Cuesta, Julita; van Loenhout, Joris Adriaan Frank; Colaço, Maria da Conceição; Guha-Sapir, Debarati

    2017-01-01

    Extreme heat is associated with an increased mortality and morbidity. National heat plans have been implemented to minimize the effect of extreme heat. The population’s awareness and knowledge of national heat plans and extreme heat is essential to improve the community’s behavior and adaptation. A general population survey was conducted in Lisbon and in Madrid to assess this knowledge. We used a questionnaire to interview passers-by. Results were compared between Lisbon and Madrid and between locals and foreigners, using Pearson Chi-square tests and Fisher's exact test. We conducted 260 interviews in six locations of different socio-economic backgrounds in each city. The most frequently mentioned extreme heat-related risk groups were the elderly (79.2%), children (49.6%) and babies (21.5%). The most frequently reported protective measures were increased fluid intake (73.1%) and avoiding exposure to the sun (50.8%). Knowledge about the heat plan was higher in Lisbon (37.2%) than in Madrid (25.2%) (p-value = 0.03). Foreigners had less knowledge of risk groups compared to locals. Heat plans were not widely known in Madrid and Lisbon. Nonetheless, knowledge of practical concepts to face extreme heat, such as certain risk groups and protective measures, was found. Our results were similar to comparable surveys where specific respondents’ groups were identified as less knowledgeable. This highlighted the importance of addressing these groups when communicating public health messages on heat. Foreigners should be specifically targeted to increase their awareness. PMID:28134849

  3. Resistance of Navy Shipboard Work Clothing Materials to Extreme Heat.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1982-10-01

    00 kok D% n n r ,L LnL c %0O m U" 𔃺 .0 0"- 4W - o 0 44 >4 L-’U .- 4 U) 0 4 ’.m-4 e n LAD% 1 L - 4 - 00L 0 00i 044 LAv> 00 -4(r-4 LAL 4 -4 0 r4U- -A4...term exposures to high heat fluxes in air. In our experimental set-up, diagrammed in Figure 10 and photographed in Figure 11, a pair of facing quartz...computed from heats of fusion of polyester (31 cal/g) and nylon 6,6 (45 cal/g)(8 ); the estimated delay in further temperature rise when the fabric has

  4. Control of complex heat transfer on producing extremal fields

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grenkin, G. V.; Chebotarev, A. Yu.

    2016-10-01

    A time-dependent model of complex heat transfer including the P 1 approximation for the equation of radiative transfer is considered. The problem of finding the coefficient in the boundary condition from a given interval, providing the minimum (maximum) temperature and radiation intensity in the entire domain is formulated. The solvability of the control problem is proven, conditions for optimality are obtained, and an iterative algorithm for finding the optimal control is found.

  5. Impact of Extreme Heat Events on Emergency Department Visits in North Carolina (2007-2011).

    PubMed

    Fuhrmann, Christopher M; Sugg, Margaret M; Konrad, Charles E; Waller, Anna

    2016-02-01

    Extreme heat is the leading cause of weather-related mortality in the U.S. Extreme heat also affects human health through heat stress and can exacerbate underlying medical conditions that lead to increased morbidity and mortality. In this study, data on emergency department (ED) visits for heat-related illness (HRI) and other selected diseases were analyzed during three heat events across North Carolina from 2007 to 2011. These heat events were identified based on the issuance and verification of heat products from local National Weather Service forecast offices (i.e. Heat Advisory, Heat Watch, and Excessive Heat Warning). The observed number of ED visits during these events were compared to the expected number of ED visits during several control periods to determine excess morbidity resulting from extreme heat. All recorded diagnoses were analyzed for each ED visit, thereby providing insight into the specific pathophysiological mechanisms and underlying health conditions associated with exposure to extreme heat. The most common form of HRI was heat exhaustion, while the percentage of visits with heat stroke was relatively low (<10%). The elderly (>65 years of age) were at greatest risk for HRI during the early summer heat event (8.9 visits per 100,000), while young and middle age adults (18-44 years of age) were at greatest risk during the mid-summer event (6.3 visits per 100,000). Many of these visits were likely due to work-related exposure. The most vulnerable demographic during the late summer heat event was adolescents (15-17 years of age), which may relate to the timing of organized sports. This demographic also exhibited the highest visit rate for HRI among all three heat events (10.5 visits per 100,000). Significant increases (p < 0.05) in visits with cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases were noted during the three heat events (3-8%). The greatest increases were found in visits with hypotension during the late summer event (23%) and sequelae during

  6. Assessing the impacts of changing precipitation and temperature extremes on the current and future ecohydrology of grassland ecosystems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brunsell, N. A.; Nippert, J. B.; Ocheltree, T.

    2012-12-01

    Extreme weather events have profound impacts on water and carbon cycling. However, events of similar magnitude may have very different impacts depending upon the timing of the event in the phenological cycle. We assess these impacts of extreme daily weather events including precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature using data collected from the Konza Prairie Long Term Ecological Research site in the central U.S. We utilize the long term weather and biomass collection data at the LTER site to examine the historical variability of extreme events and the impacts on annual carbon dynamics. Timescales of interactions between daily weather and fluxes are quantified through a multiscale information theoretic approach. In addition, we quantify the impacts of the timing and magnitude of extreme events through a Critical Climate Period (CCP) analysis. Results indicate a strong sensitivity to spring precipitation and summer temperature. Using six years of eddy covariance data, we can isolate more of the biophysical mechanisms governing the responses to extreme weather events. Of particular interest is the heat wave of July, 2011, where daily maximum temperatures were over 38 C for 24 consecutive days and resulted in drastically reduced above ground carbon allocation than in previous years. In addition, we employ the Agro-BGC model to assess the biophysical processes responsible for determining the response of water and carbon dynamics to extreme weather events. This is done by employing a stochastic weather generator with prescribed changes in annual precipitation and temperature conistent with GCM projections. Developing a more thorough understanding of extreme events and the differential responses due to the timing and magnitude of the events will potentially assist in the mitigation of future climate change.

  7. Hyperthermia and cardiovascular strain during an extreme heat exposure in young versus older adults

    PubMed Central

    Kenny, Glen P.; Poirier, Martin P.; Metsios, George S.; Boulay, Pierre; Dervis, Sheila; Friesen, Brian J.; Malcolm, Janine; Sigal, Ronald J.; Seely, Andrew J. E.; Flouris, Andreas D.

    2017-01-01

    ABSTRACT We examined whether older individuals experience greater levels of hyperthermia and cardiovascular strain during an extreme heat exposure compared to young adults. During a 3-hour extreme heat exposure (44°C, 30% relative humidity), we compared body heat storage, core temperature (rectal, visceral) and cardiovascular (heart rate, cardiac output, mean arterial pressure, limb blood flow) responses of young adults (n = 30, 19–28 years) against those of older adults (n = 30, 55–73 years). Direct calorimetry measured whole-body evaporative and dry heat exchange. Body heat storage was calculated as the temporal summation of heat production (indirect calorimetry) and whole-body heat loss (direct calorimetry) over the exposure period. While both groups gained a similar amount of heat in the first hour, the older adults showed an attenuated increase in evaporative heat loss (p < 0.033) in the first 30-min. Thereafter, the older adults were unable to compensate for a greater rate of heat gain (11 ± 1 ; p < 0.05) with a corresponding increase in evaporative heat loss. Older adults stored more heat (358 ± 173 kJ) relative to their younger (202 ± 92 kJ; p < 0.001) counterparts at the end of the exposure leading to greater elevations in rectal (p = 0.043) and visceral (p = 0.05) temperatures, albeit not clinically significant (rise < 0.5°C). Older adults experienced a reduction in calf blood flow (p < 0.01) with heat stress, yet no differences in cardiac output, blood pressure or heart rate. We conclude, in healthy habitually active individuals, despite no clinically observable cardiovascular or temperature changes, older adults experience greater heat gain and decreased limb perfusion in response to 3-hour heat exposure. PMID:28349096

  8. Present-day and future mediterranean precipitation extremes assessed by different statistical approaches

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Paxian, A.; Hertig, E.; Seubert, S.; Vogt, G.; Jacobeit, J.; Paeth, H.

    2015-02-01

    The Mediterranean area is strongly vulnerable to future changes in temperature and precipitation, particularly concerning extreme events, and has been identified as a climate change hot spot. This study performs a comprehensive investigation of present-day and future Mediterranean precipitation extremes based on station data, gridded observations and simulations of the regional climate model (REMO) driven by the coupled global general circulation model ECHAM5/MPI-OM. Extreme value estimates from different statistical methods—quantile-based indices, generalized pareto distribution (GPD) based return values and data from a weather generator—are compared and evaluated. Dynamical downscaling reveals improved small-scale topographic structures and more realistic higher rainfall totals and extremes over mountain ranges and in summer. REMO tends to overestimate gridded observational data in winter but is closer to local station information. The dynamical-statistical weather generator provides virtual station rainfall from gridded REMO data that overcomes typical discrepancies between area-averaged model rainfall and local station information, e.g. overestimated numbers of rainy days and underestimated extreme intensities. Concerning future rainfall amount, strong summer and winter drying over the northern and southern Mediterranean, respectively, is confronted with winter wetting over the northern part. In contrast, precipitation extremes tend to increase in even more Mediterranean areas, implying regions with decreasing totals but intensifying extremes, e.g. southern Europe and Turkey in winter and the Balkans in summer. The GPD based return values reveal slightly larger regions of increasing rainfall extremes than quantile-based indices, and the virtual stations from the weather generator show even stronger increases.

  9. Vibroacoustic Analysis of Large Heat Rejection Radiators for Future Spacecraft

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Larko, Jeffrey M.; McNelis, Mark E.; Hughes, William O.

    2006-01-01

    Spacecraft structures such as antennas, solar arrays and radiator panels significantly respond to high acoustic levels seen at lift-off. Some future spacecraft may utilize nuclear electric propulsion that require large radiator panels to reject waste heat. A vibroacoustic assessment was performed for two different radiator panel designs. Results from the analysis of the two designs using different analytical approaches are presented and discussed.

  10. Extremely heat tolerant photosymbiosis in a shallow marine benthic foraminifera

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schmidt, Christiane; Danna, Titelboim; Janett, Brandt; Raphael, Morard; Barak, Herut; Sigal, Abramovich; Ahuva, Almogi-Labin; Michal, Kucera

    2016-04-01

    Thermal stress leads to the loss of algal symbionts (bleaching) in many shallow marine calcifiers including foraminifera. The bleaching threshold often occurs at water temperatures, which are likely to be exceeded in the near future due to global warming. Preadaptation represents one mechanism allowing photosymbiotic organisms to persist under warmer conditions, providing the tolerance can be carried to new habitats. Here we provide evidence for the existence of such adaptation in the benthic foraminifera Pararotalia calcariformata recently discovered in the eastern Mediterranean. We identify its symbionts as a consortium of diatom species dominated by Minutocellus polymorphus. We show that in the field, the foraminifera retains its pigments at a thermally polluted site, where peak water temperatures reach 36°C. To test whether this tolerance represents a widespread adaptation, we conducted manipulative experiments exposing populations from an unpolluted site to elevated temperatures for up to three weeks. The populations were kept in co-culture with the more thermally sensitive diatom-bearing foraminifera Amphistegina lobifera. Reduced photosynthetic activity in A. lobifera occurred at 32°C whereas photochemical stress in P. calcariformata was first observed during exposure to 36°C and chronic photoinhibition (but not mortality) first occurred at 42°C. Survivorship was high in all treatments, and growth was observed under thermal conditions similar to summer maxima at the thermally polluted site (35-36°C). The photosymbiosis in P. calcariformata is unusually thermally tolerant for a photosymbiont-bearing eukaryote. The thermal tolerance of this photosymbiosis is present in a natural environment where its thermal threshold is never realized. These observations imply that photosymbiosis in marine protists can respond to elevated temperatures by drawing on a pool of naturally occurring pre-adaptations. It also provides a perspective on the massive occurrence of

  11. The critical role of extreme heat for maize production in the United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lobell, David B.; Hammer, Graeme L.; McLean, Greg; Messina, Carlos; Roberts, Michael J.; Schlenker, Wolfram

    2013-05-01

    Statistical studies of rainfed maize yields in the United States and elsewhere have indicated two clear features: a strong negative yield response to accumulation of temperatures above 30°C (or extreme degree days (EDD)), and a relatively weak response to seasonal rainfall. Here we show that the process-based Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) is able to reproduce both of these relationships in the Midwestern United States and provide insight into underlying mechanisms. The predominant effects of EDD in APSIM are associated with increased vapour pressure deficit, which contributes to water stress in two ways: by increasing demand for soil water to sustain a given rate of carbon assimilation, and by reducing future supply of soil water by raising transpiration rates. APSIM computes daily water stress as the ratio of water supply to demand, and during the critical month of July this ratio is three times more responsive to 2°C warming than to a 20% precipitation reduction. The results suggest a relatively minor role for direct heat stress on reproductive organs at present temperatures in this region. Effects of elevated CO2 on transpiration efficiency should reduce yield sensitivity to EDD in the coming decades, but at most by 25%.

  12. Increased hospital admissions associated with extreme-heat exposure in King County, Washington, 1990-2010.

    PubMed

    Isaksen, Tania Busch; Yost, Michael G; Hom, Elizabeth K; Ren, You; Lyons, Hilary; Fenske, Richard A

    2015-01-01

    Increased morbidity and mortality have been associated with extreme heat events, particularly in temperate climates. Few epidemiologic studies have considered the impact of extreme heat events on hospitalization rates in the Pacific Northwest region. This study quantifies the historic (May to September 1990-2010) heat-morbidity relationship in the most populous Pacific Northwest County, King County, Washington. A relative risk (RR) analysis was used to explore the association between heat and all non-traumatic hospitalizations on 99th percentile heat days, whereas a time series analysis using a piecewise linear model approximation was used to estimate the effect of heat intensity on hospitalizations, adjusted for temporal trends and day of the week. A non-statistically significant 2% [95% CI: 1.02 (0.98, 1.05)] increase in hospitalization risk, on a heat day vs. a non-heat day, was noted for all-ages and all non-traumatic causes. When considering the effect of heat intensity on admissions, we found a statistically significant 1.59% (95% CI: 0.9%, 2.29%) increase in admissions per degree increase in humidex above 37.4°C. Admissions stratified by cause and age produced statistically significant results with both relative risk and time series analyses for nephritis and nephrotic syndromes, acute renal failure, and natural heat exposure hospitalizations. This study demonstrates that heat, expressed as humidex, is associated with increased hospital admissions. When stratified by age and cause of admission, the non-elderly age groups (<85 years) experience significant risk for nephritis and nephrotic syndromes, acute renal failure, natural heat exposure, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and asthma hospitalizations.

  13. The Spanish tourist sector facing extreme climate events: a case study of domestic tourism in the heat wave of 2003

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gómez-Martín, M. Belén; Armesto-López, Xosé A.; Martínez-Ibarra, Emilio

    2013-04-01

    This research explores, by means of a questionnaire-based survey, public knowledge and perception as well as the behaviour of young Spanish tourists before, during and after the summer holiday period affected by an episode of extreme heat in 2003. The survey was administered between November and December 2004. The extraordinary heat wave of the summer of 2003 can be seen as an example of a normal episode in terms of the predicted intensity and duration of European summers towards the end of the twenty-first century. It can therefore be used as the laboratory setting for this study. In this context, the use of the climate analogue approach allows us to obtain novel perspectives regarding the future impact that this type of event could have on tourist demand, based on a real experience. Likewise, such an approach allows the strategies of adaptation implemented by the different elements in the tourist system in order to cope with the atmospheric episode to be evaluated. Such strategies could prove useful in reducing vulnerability when faced with similar episodes in the future. The main results indicate that Spanish tourists (young segment market) are flexible in adapting to episodes of extremely high temperatures. Their personal perception of the phenomenon, their behaviour and the adaptation measures implemented to a greater or lesser extent before that time, reduce the vulnerability of the sector when faced with this type of event, at least from the point of view of this young segment of the internal national market. In Spain, the episode of extreme heat of 2003 has led to the implementation or improvement of some adaptive measures after the event, especially in the fields of management, policy and education.

  14. The Spanish tourist sector facing extreme climate events: a case study of domestic tourism in the heat wave of 2003

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gómez-Martín, M. Belén; Armesto-López, Xosé A.; Martínez-Ibarra, Emilio

    2014-07-01

    This research explores, by means of a questionnaire-based survey, public knowledge and perception as well as the behaviour of young Spanish tourists before, during and after the summer holiday period affected by an episode of extreme heat in 2003. The survey was administered between November and December 2004. The extraordinary heat wave of the summer of 2003 can be seen as an example of a normal episode in terms of the predicted intensity and duration of European summers towards the end of the twenty-first century. It can therefore be used as the laboratory setting for this study. In this context, the use of the climate analogue approach allows us to obtain novel perspectives regarding the future impact that this type of event could have on tourist demand, based on a real experience. Likewise, such an approach allows the strategies of adaptation implemented by the different elements in the tourist system in order to cope with the atmospheric episode to be evaluated. Such strategies could prove useful in reducing vulnerability when faced with similar episodes in the future. The main results indicate that Spanish tourists (young segment market) are flexible in adapting to episodes of extremely high temperatures. Their personal perception of the phenomenon, their behaviour and the adaptation measures implemented to a greater or lesser extent before that time, reduce the vulnerability of the sector when faced with this type of event, at least from the point of view of this young segment of the internal national market. In Spain, the episode of extreme heat of 2003 has led to the implementation or improvement of some adaptive measures after the event, especially in the fields of management, policy and education.

  15. The Spanish tourist sector facing extreme climate events: a case study of domestic tourism in the heat wave of 2003.

    PubMed

    Gómez-Martín, M Belén; Armesto-López, Xosé A; Martínez-Ibarra, Emilio

    2014-07-01

    This research explores, by means of a questionnaire-based survey, public knowledge and perception as well as the behaviour of young Spanish tourists before, during and after the summer holiday period affected by an episode of extreme heat in 2003. The survey was administered between November and December 2004. The extraordinary heat wave of the summer of 2003 can be seen as an example of a normal episode in terms of the predicted intensity and duration of European summers towards the end of the twenty-first century. It can therefore be used as the laboratory setting for this study. In this context, the use of the climate analogue approach allows us to obtain novel perspectives regarding the future impact that this type of event could have on tourist demand, based on a real experience. Likewise, such an approach allows the strategies of adaptation implemented by the different elements in the tourist system in order to cope with the atmospheric episode to be evaluated. Such strategies could prove useful in reducing vulnerability when faced with similar episodes in the future. The main results indicate that Spanish tourists (young segment market) are flexible in adapting to episodes of extremely high temperatures. Their personal perception of the phenomenon, their behaviour and the adaptation measures implemented to a greater or lesser extent before that time, reduce the vulnerability of the sector when faced with this type of event, at least from the point of view of this young segment of the internal national market. In Spain, the episode of extreme heat of 2003 has led to the implementation or improvement of some adaptive measures after the event, especially in the fields of management, policy and education.

  16. Future change of extreme temperature climate indices over East Asia with uncertainties estimation in the CMIP5

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Seo, Ye-Won; Kim, Hojin; Yun, Kyung-Sook; Lee, June-Yi; Ha, Kyung-Ja; Moon, Ja-Yeon

    2014-11-01

    How well the climate models simulate extreme temperature over East Asia and how the extreme indices would change under anthropogenic global warming are investigated. The indices studied include hot days (HD), tropical nights (TN), growing degree days (GDD), and cooling degree days (CDD) in summer and heating degree days (HDD) and frost days (FD) in winter. The representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP 4.5) experiments for the period of 2075-2099 are compared with historical simulations for the period of 1979-2005 from 15 coupled models that are participated in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). To optimally estimate future change and its uncertainty, groups of best models are selected based on Taylor diagrams, relative entropy, and probability density function (PDF) methods previously suggested. Overall, the best models' multi-model ensemble based on Taylor diagrams has the lowest errors in reproducing temperature extremes in the present climate among three methods. Selected best models in three methods tend to project considerably different changes in the extreme indices from each other, indicating that the selection of reliable models are of critical importance to reduce uncertainties. Three groups of best models show significant increase of summerbased indices but decrease of the winter-based indices. Over East Asia, the most significant increase is seen in the HD (336 ± 23.4% of current climate) and the most significant decrease is appeared in the HDD (82 ± 4.2%). It is suggested that the larger future change in the HD is found over in the Southeastern China region, probably due to a higher local maximum temperature in the present climate. All of the indices show the largest uncertainty over Southeastern China, particularly in the TN (~3.9 times as large as uncertainty over East Asia) and in the HD (~2.4). It is further noted that the TN reveals the largest uncertainty over three East Asian countries (~1.7 and 1.4 over Korea and

  17. Increased hospital admissions associated with extreme-heat exposure in King County, Washington, 1990-2010

    PubMed Central

    Isaksen, Tania Busch; Yost, Michael G.; Hom, Elizabeth K.; Ren, You; Lyons, Hilary; Fenske, Richard A.

    2016-01-01

    Increased morbidity and mortality have been associated with extreme heat events, particularly in temperate climates. Few epidemiologic studies have considered the impact of extreme heat events on hospitalization rates in the Pacific Northwest region. This study quantifies the historical (May to September 1990-2010) heat-morbidity relationship in the most populous Pacific Northwest County -King County, Washington. A relative risk (RR) analysis was used to explore the association between heat and all non-traumatic hospitalizations on 99th percentile heat days, while a time series analysis using a piece-wise linear model approximation was used to estimate the effect that heat’s intensity has on hospitalizations, adjusted for temporal trends and day of the week. A non-statistically significant 2% [95% CI: 1.02 (0.98, 1.05)] increase in hospitalization risk, on a heat day versus a non-heat day, was noted for all-ages, all non-traumatic causes. When considering the effect heat intensity has on admissions, we found a statistically significant 1.59% (95% CI: 0.9%, 2.29%) increase in admissions per degree increase in humidex above 37.4 °C. Admissions stratified by cause and age produced statistically significant results with both relative risk and time series analyses for nephritis and nephrotic syndromes, acute renal failure and natural heat exposure hospitalizations. This study demonstrates that heat, expressed as humidex, is associated with increased hospital admissions. When stratified by age and cause of admission, the non-elderly (less than 85) age groups experience significant risk for: nephritis and nephrotic syndromes, acute renal failure, natural heat exposure, COPD and asthma hospitalizations. PMID:25719287

  18. Vulnerability to extreme heat and climate change: is ethnicity a factor?

    PubMed

    Hansen, Alana; Bi, Linda; Saniotis, Arthur; Nitschke, Monika

    2013-01-01

    Background With a warming climate, it is important to identify sub-populations at risk of harm during extreme heat. Several international studies have reported that individuals from ethnic minorities are at increased risk of heat-related illness, for reasons that are not often discussed. Objective The aim of this article is to investigate the underpinning reasons as to why ethnicity may be associated with susceptibility to extreme heat, and how this may be relevant to Australia's population. Design Drawing upon literary sources, the authors provide commentary on this important, yet poorly understood area of heat research. Results Social and economic disparities, living conditions, language barriers, and occupational exposure are among the many factors contributing to heat-susceptibility among minority ethnic groups in the United States. However, there is a knowledge gap about socio-cultural influences on vulnerability in other countries. Conclusion More research needs to be undertaken to determine the effects of heat on tourists, migrants, and refugees who are confronted with a different climatic environment. Thorough epidemiological investigations of the association between ethnicity and heat-related health outcomes are required, and this could be assisted with better reporting of nationality data in health statistics. Climate change adaptation strategies in Australia and elsewhere need to be ethnically inclusive and cognisant of an upward trend in the proportion of the population who are migrants and refugees.

  19. Development of heat and drought related extreme weather events and their effect on winter wheat yields in Germany

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lüttger, Andrea B.; Feike, Til

    2017-02-01

    Climate change constitutes a major challenge for high productivity in wheat, the most widely grown crop in Germany. Extreme weather events including dry spells and heat waves, which negatively affect wheat yields, are expected to aggravate in the future. It is crucial to improve the understanding of the spatiotemporal development of such extreme weather events and the respective crop-climate relationships in Germany. Thus, the present study is a first attempt to evaluate the historic development of relevant drought and heat-related extreme weather events from 1901 to 2010 on county level (NUTS-3) in Germany. Three simple drought indices and two simple heat stress indices were used in the analysis. A continuous increase in dry spells over time was observed over the investigated periods from 1901-1930, 1931-1960, 1961-1990 to 2001-2010. Short and medium dry spells, i.e., precipitation-free periods longer than 5 and 8 days, respectively, increased more strongly compared to longer dry spells (longer than 11 days). The heat-related stress indices with maximum temperatures above 25 and 28 °C during critical wheat growth phases showed no significant increase over the first three periods but an especially sharp increase in the final 1991-2010 period with the increases being particularly pronounced in parts of Southwestern Germany. Trend analysis over the entire 110-year period using Mann-Kendall test revealed a significant positive trend for all investigated indices except for heat stress above 25 °C during flowering period. The analysis of county-level yield data from 1981 to 2010 revealed declining spatial yield variability and rather constant temporal yield variability over the three investigated (1981-1990, 1991-2000, and 2001-2010) decades. A clear spatial gradient manifested over time with variability in the West being much smaller than in the east of Germany. Correlating yield variability with the previously analyzed extreme weather indices revealed strong

  20. Extreme heat and cultural and linguistic minorities in Australia: perceptions of stakeholders

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background Despite acclimatisation to hot weather, many individuals in Australia are adversely affected by extreme heat each summer, placing added pressure on the health sector. In terms of public health, it is therefore important to identify vulnerable groups, particularly in the face of a warming climate. International evidence points to a disparity in heat-susceptibility in certain minority groups, although it is unknown if this occurs in Australia. With cultural diversity increasing, the aim of this study was to explore how migrants from different cultural backgrounds and climate experiences manage periods of extreme heat in Australia. Methods A qualitative study was undertaken across three Australian cities, involving interviews and focus groups with key informants including stakeholders involved in multicultural service provision and community members. Thematic analysis and a framework approach were used to analyse the data. Results Whilst migrants and refugees generally adapt well upon resettlement, there are sociocultural barriers encountered by some that hinder environmental adaptation to periods of extreme heat in Australia. These barriers include socioeconomic disadvantage and poor housing, language barriers to the access of information, isolation, health issues, cultural factors and lack of acclimatisation. Most often mentioned as being at risk were new arrivals, people in new and emerging communities, and older migrants. Conclusions With increasing diversity within populations, it is important that the health sector is aware that during periods of extreme heat there may be disparities in the adaptive capacity of minority groups, underpinned by sociocultural and language-based vulnerabilities in migrants and refugees. These factors need to be considered by policymakers when formulating and disseminating heat health strategies. PMID:24889099

  1. Assessment of future variability in extreme precipitation and the potential effects on the wadi flow regime.

    PubMed

    Gunawardhana, Luminda Niroshana; Al-Rawas, Ghazi A; Kazama, So; Al-Najar, Khalid A

    2015-10-01

    The objective of this study is to investigate how the magnitude and occurrence of extreme precipitation events are affected by climate change and to predict the subsequent impacts on the wadi flow regime in the Al-Khod catchment area, Muscat, Oman. The tank model, a lumped-parameter rainfall-runoff model, was used to simulate the wadi flow. Precipitation extremes and their potential future changes were predicted using six-member ensembles of general circulation models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Yearly maxima of the daily precipitation and wadi flow for varying return periods were compared for observed and projected data by fitting the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution function. Flow duration curves (FDC) were developed and compared for the observed and projected wadi flows. The results indicate that extreme precipitation events consistently increase by the middle of the twenty-first century for all return periods (49-52%), but changes may become more profound by the end of the twenty-first century (81-101%). Consequently, the relative change in extreme wadi flow is greater than twofolds for all of the return periods in the late twenty-first century compared to the relative changes that occur in the mid-century period. Precipitation analysis further suggests that greater than 50% of the precipitation may be associated with extreme events in the future. The FDC analysis reveals that changes in low-to-moderate flows (Q60-Q90) may not be statistically significant, whereas increases in high flows (Q5) are statistically robust (20 and 25% for the mid- and late-century periods, respectively).

  2. Using dry and wet year hydroclimatic extremes to guide future hydrologic projections

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oni, Stephen; Futter, Martyn; Ledesma, Jose; Teutschbein, Claudia; Buttle, Jim; Laudon, Hjalmar

    2016-07-01

    There are growing numbers of studies on climate change impacts on forest hydrology, but limited attempts have been made to use current hydroclimatic variabilities to constrain projections of future climatic conditions. Here we used historical wet and dry years as a proxy for expected future extreme conditions in a boreal catchment. We showed that runoff could be underestimated by at least 35 % when dry year parameterizations were used for wet year conditions. Uncertainty analysis showed that behavioural parameter sets from wet and dry years separated mainly on precipitation-related parameters and to a lesser extent on parameters related to landscape processes, while uncertainties inherent in climate models (as opposed to differences in calibration or performance metrics) appeared to drive the overall uncertainty in runoff projections under dry and wet hydroclimatic conditions. Hydrologic model calibration for climate impact studies could be based on years that closely approximate anticipated conditions to better constrain uncertainty in projecting extreme conditions in boreal and temperate regions.

  3. Revisiting extreme storms of the past 100 years for future safety of large water management infrastructures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Xiaodong; Hossain, Faisal

    2016-07-01

    Historical extreme storm events are widely used to make Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) estimates, which form the cornerstone of large water management infrastructure safety. Past studies suggest that extreme precipitation processes can be sensitive to land surface feedback and the planetary warming trend, which makes the future safety of large infrastructures questionable given the projected changes in land cover and temperature in the coming decades. In this study, a numerical modeling framework was employed to reconstruct 10 extreme storms over CONUS that occurred during the past 100 years, which are used by the engineering profession for PMP estimation for large infrastructures such as dams. Results show that the correlation in daily rainfall for such reconstruction can range between 0.4 and 0.7, while the correlation for maximum 3-day accumulation (a standard period used in infrastructure design) is always above 0.5 for post-1948 storms. This suggests that current numerical modeling and reanalysis data allow us to reconstruct big storms after 1948 with acceptable accuracy. For storms prior to 1948, however, reconstruction of storms shows inconsistency with observations. Our study indicates that numerical modeling and data may not have advanced to a sufficient level to understand how such old storms (pre-1948) may behave in future warming and land cover conditions. However, the infrastructure community can certainly rely on the use of model reconstructed extreme storms of the 1948-present period to reassess safety of our large water infrastructures under assumed changes in temperature and land cover.

  4. Future intensification of hydro-meteorological extremes: downscaling using the weather research and forecasting model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    El-Samra, R.; Bou-Zeid, E.; Bangalath, H. K.; Stenchikov, G.; El-Fadel, M.

    2017-02-01

    A set of ten downscaling simulations at high spatial resolution (3 km horizontally) were performed using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to generate future climate projections of annual and seasonal temperature and precipitation changes over the Eastern Mediterranean (with a focus on Lebanon). The model was driven with the High Resolution Atmospheric Model (HiRAM), running over the whole globe at a resolution of 25 km, under the conditions of two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) (4.5 and 8.5). Each downscaling simulation spanned one year. Two past years (2003 and 2008), also forced by HiRAM without data assimilation, were simulated to evaluate the model's ability to capture the cold and wet (2003) and hot and dry (2008) extremes. The downscaled data were in the range of recent observed climatic variability, and therefore corrected for the cold bias of HiRAM. Eight future years were then selected based on an anomaly score that relies on the mean annual temperature and accumulated precipitation to identify the worst year per decade from a water resources perspective. One hot and dry year per decade, from 2011 to 2050, and per scenario was simulated and compared to the historic 2008 reference. The results indicate that hot and dry future extreme years will be exacerbated and the study area might be exposed to a significant decrease in annual precipitation (rain and snow), reaching up to 30% relative to the current extreme conditions.

  5. Ultrastructure and extreme heat resistance of spores from thermophilic Clostridium species.

    PubMed Central

    Hyun, H H; Zeikus, J G; Longin, R; Millet, J; Ryter, A

    1983-01-01

    The heat resistance and ultrastructural features of spore suspensions prepared from Clostridium thermocellum LQRI, Clostridium thermosulfurogenes 4B, and Clostridium thermohydrosulfuricum 39E were compared as a function of decimal reduction time. The decimal reduction times at 121 degrees C for strains LQRI, 4B, and 39E were 0.5, 2.5, and 11 min. The higher degree of spore heat resistance was associated with a spore architecture displaying a thicker cortex layer. Heat resistance of these spores was proportional to the ratio of spore cortex volume to cytoplasmic volume. These ratios for spores of strains LQRI, 4B, and 39E were 1.4, 1.6, and 6.6, respectively. The extreme heat resistance and autoclavable nature of C. thermohydrosulfuricum spores under routine sterilization procedures is suggested as a common cause of laboratory contamination with pure cultures of thermophilic, saccharide-fermenting anaerobes. Images PMID:6643392

  6. Increased mortality associated with extreme-heat exposure in King County, Washington, 1980-2010

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Isaksen, Tania Busch; Fenske, Richard A.; Hom, Elizabeth K.; Ren, You; Lyons, Hilary; Yost, Michael G.

    2016-01-01

    Extreme heat has been associated with increased mortality, particularly in temperate climates. Few epidemiologic studies have considered the Pacific Northwest region in their analyses. This study quantified the historical (May to September, 1980-2010) heat-mortality relationship in the most populous Pacific Northwest County, King County, Washington. A relative risk (RR) analysis was used to explore the relationship between heat and all-cause mortality on 99th percentile heat days, while a time series analysis, using a piece-wise linear model fit, was used to estimate the effect of heat intensity on mortality, adjusted for temporal trends. For all ages, all causes, we found a 10 % (1.10 (95 % confidence interval (CI), 1.06, 1.14)) increase in the risk of death on a heat day versus non-heat day. When considering the intensity effect of heat on all-cause mortality, we found a 1.69 % (95 % CI, 0.69, 2.70) increase in the risk of death per unit of humidex above 36.0 °C. Mortality stratified by cause and age produced statistically significant results using both types of analyses for: all-cause, non-traumatic, circulatory, cardiovascular, cerebrovascular, and diabetes causes of death. All-cause mortality was statistically significantly modified by the type of synoptic weather type. These results demonstrate that heat, expressed as humidex, is associated with increased mortality on heat days, and that risk increases with heat's intensity. While age was the only individual-level characteristic found to modify mortality risks, statistically significant increases in diabetes-related mortality for the 45-64 age group suggests that underlying health status may contribute to these risks.

  7. Increased mortality associated with extreme-heat exposure in King County, Washington, 1980-2010.

    PubMed

    Isaksen, Tania Busch; Fenske, Richard A; Hom, Elizabeth K; Ren, You; Lyons, Hilary; Yost, Michael G

    2016-01-01

    Extreme heat has been associated with increased mortality, particularly in temperate climates. Few epidemiologic studies have considered the Pacific Northwest region in their analyses. This study quantified the historical (May to September, 1980-2010) heat-mortality relationship in the most populous Pacific Northwest County, King County, Washington. A relative risk (RR) analysis was used to explore the relationship between heat and all-cause mortality on 99th percentile heat days, while a time series analysis, using a piece-wise linear model fit, was used to estimate the effect of heat intensity on mortality, adjusted for temporal trends. For all ages, all causes, we found a 10% (1.10 (95% confidence interval (CI), 1.06, 1.14)) increase in the risk of death on a heat day versus non-heat day. When considering the intensity effect of heat on all-cause mortality, we found a 1.69% (95% CI, 0.69, 2.70) increase in the risk of death per unit of humidex above 36.0°C. Mortality stratified by cause and age produced statistically significant results using both types of analyses for: all-cause, non-traumatic, circulatory, cardiovascular, cerebrovascular, and diabetes causes of death. All-cause mortality was statistically significantly modified by the type of synoptic weather type. These results demonstrate that heat, expressed as humidex, is associated with increased mortality on heat days, and that risk increases with heat's intensity. While age was the only individual-level characteristic found to modify mortality risks, statistically significant increases in diabetes-related mortality for the 45-64 age group suggests that underlying health status may contribute to these risks.

  8. Heating dynamics and extreme ultraviolet radiation emission of laser-produced Sn plasmas

    SciTech Connect

    Yuspeh, S.; Sequoia, K. L.; Tao, Y.; Tillack, M. S.; Burdt, R. A.; Najmabadi, F.

    2010-06-28

    The impact of 1.064 mum laser absorption depth on the heating and in-band (2% bandwidth) 13.5 nm extreme ultraviolet emissions in Sn plasmas is investigated experimentally and numerically. In-band emission lasting longer than the laser pulse and separation between the laser absorption and in-band emission region are observed. Maximum efficiency is achieved by additional heating of the core of the plasma to allow the optimal temperature to expand to a lower and more optically thin density. This leads to higher temperature plasma that emits less in-band light as compared to CO{sub 2} produced plasma sources for the same application.

  9. Extreme Ultraviolet Imaging of Electron Heated Targets in Petawatt Laser Experiments

    SciTech Connect

    Ma, T; MacPhee, A; Key, M; Akli, K; Mackinnon, A; Chen, C; Barbee, T; Freeman, R; King, J; Link, A; Offermann, D; Ovchinnikov, V; Patel, P; Stephens, R; VanWoerkom, L; Zhang, B; Beg, F

    2007-11-29

    The study of the transport of electrons, and the flow of energy into a solid target or dense plasma, is instrumental in the development of fast ignition inertial confinement fusion. An extreme ultraviolet (XUV) imaging diagnostic at 256 eV and 68 eV provides information about heating and energy deposition within petawatt laser-irradiated targets. XUV images of several irradiated solid targets are presented.

  10. Increased mortality associated with extreme-heat exposure in King County, Washington, 1980–2010

    PubMed Central

    Fenske, Richard A.; Hom, Elizabeth K.; Ren, You; Lyons, Hilary; Yost, Michael G.

    2016-01-01

    Extreme heat has been associated with increased mortality, particularly in temperate climates. Few epidemiologic studies have considered the Pacific Northwest region in their analyses. This study quantified the historical (May to September, 1980–2010) heat-mortality relationship in the most populous Pacific Northwest County, King County, Washington. A relative risk (RR) analysis was used to explore the relationship between heat and all-cause mortality on 99th percentile heat days, while a time series analysis, using a piece-wise linear model fit, was used to estimate the effect of heat intensity on mortality, adjusted for temporal trends. For all ages, all causes, we found a 10 % (1.10 (95 % confidence interval (CI), 1.06, 1.14)) increase in the risk of death on a heat day versus non-heat day. When considering the intensity effect of heat on all-cause mortality, we found a 1.69 % (95 % CI, 0.69, 2.70) increase in the risk of death per unit of humidex above 36.0 °C. Mortality stratified by cause and age produced statistically significant results using both types of analyses for: all-cause, non-traumatic, circulatory, cardiovascular, cerebrovascular, and diabetes causes of death. All-cause mortality was statistically significantly modified by the type of synoptic weather type. These results demonstrate that heat, expressed as humidex, is associated with increased mortality on heat days, and that risk increases with heat’s intensity. While age was the only individual-level characteristic found to modify mortality risks, statistically significant increases in diabetes-related mortality for the 45–64 age group suggests that underlying health status may contribute to these risks. PMID:25956805

  11. Liquid jet impingement cooling with diamond substrates for extremely high heat flux applications

    SciTech Connect

    Lienhard, J.H. V; Khounsary, A.M.

    1993-09-01

    The combination of impinging jets and diamond substrates may provide an effective solution to a class of extremely high heat flux problems in which very localized heat loads must be removed. Some potential applications include the cooling of high-heat-load components in synchrotron x-ray, fusion, and semiconductor laser systems. Impinging liquid jets are a very effective vehicle for removing high heat fluxes. The liquid supply arrangement is relatively simple, and low thermal resistances can be routinely achieved. A jet`s cooling ability is a strong function of the size of the cooled area relative to the jet diameter. For relatively large area targets, the critical heat fluxes can approach 20 W/mm{sup 2}. In this situation, burnout usually originates at the outer edge of the cooled region as increasing heat flux inhibits the liquid supply. Limitations from liquid supply are minimized when heating is restricted to the jet stagnation zone. The high stagnation pressure and high velocity gradients appear to suppress critical flux phenomena, and fluxes of up to 400 W/mm{sup 2} have been reached without evidence of burnout. Instead, the restrictions on heat flux are closely related to properties of the cooled target. Target properties become an issue owing to the large temperatures and large temperature gradients that accompany heat fluxes over 100 W/mm{sup 2}. These conditions necessitate a target with both high thermal conductivity to prevent excessive temperatures and good mechanical properties to prevent mechanical failures. Recent developments in synthetic diamond technology present a possible solution to some of the solid-side constraints on heat flux. Polycrystalline diamond foils can now be produced by chemical vapor deposition in reasonable quantity and at reasonable cost. Synthetic single crystal diamonds as large as 1 cm{sup 2} are also available.

  12. The impact of future changes in weather patterns on extreme sea levels over southern Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Colberg, Frank; McInnes, Kathleen L.

    This study first compares two methods by which the global, variable resolution Cubic Conformal Atmospheric Model (CCAM) is forced by reanalysis over Australia. The methods are the spectral nudging and bias-corrected sea surface temperature (SST) forcing. Surface winds and sea level pressure are compared since these influence coastal sea levels. SST forcing was found to better preserve the mean and standard deviation of these quantities. Second, a hydrodynamic model is used to model sea levels over southern Australia over 1980-1999 and 2080-2099 to investigate how changes in weather patterns affect extreme sea levels. Forcing from one Global Climate Model (GCM) and two CCAM simulations in which CCAM was used to downscale two GCMs over Australia with bias-corrected SST forcing (including the GCM considered in this study) were used. While there are differences in the spatial patterns of change between seasons over the modeled coastline between the three models, extreme sea levels were mostly lower in the future period over the southern mainland coastline from autumn to spring due to reduced westerlies in the climate models. The sea level changes around Tasmania varied from positive to negative depending on the model and season. The projected extreme sea level changes were within 10 cm of current climate values. This suggests that over southern Australia extreme sea level changes will be dominated by changes in mean sea level due to thermal expansion and ice sheet and glacier melt rather than changes in weather patterns.

  13. Temporal Changes in Extreme High Temerature, Heat Waves in Istanbul Between 1960-2014

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yürük, C.; Ünal, Y. S.; Bilgen, S. I.; Menteş, Ş. S.; İncecik, S.

    2015-12-01

    Climate change has crucial effects on cities and especially for informal settlements, urban poor and other vulnerable groups by influencing human health, assets and livelihoods. These impacts directly result from the variations in temperature and precipitation, and emergence of heat waves, droughts, floods and fires (IPCC, 2014). Summertime episodes with extremely high air temperatures which last for several days or longer are addressed to as heat waves and affect the weather and climate in the globe. The aim of this study is to analyze the occurrence of heat waves in terms of quantity, duration and frequency and also to evaluate the accuracy of the COSMO-CLM (CCLM) model in reproducing the characteristics of heat waves in Istanbul. The summer maximum temperatures of six Turkish State Meteorological Service (TSMS) stations are selected between 1960 and 2014 to estimate the characteristics of heat waves in Istanbul. We define the heat wave if the maximum temperatures exceed a threshold value for at least three consecutive days. The threshold value is determined as 30.5 from the 90th percentile of all six station's observations. Then it is used in the detection of the hot days, heat waves and their durations. The results show that not only the number of heat waves but also duration of heat waves increase towards the end of the study period. Especially, a significant increase in heat wave events is evident after 1990s. In 2012, the number of hot days reaches the maximum value in all stations and Kartal station located southern part of city, has the highest value of 60 hot days. Furthermore, Kartal as an urban area in the Asian side of the city, exhibits highest heat wave duration with 18 consecutive days in 1998. To estimate the relationship between urban heat island intensity and the heat waves, we examined data at 43 stations collected by Disaster Coordination Center and TSMS between 2007 and 2012. Urban heat island phenomenon is found to be related to higher

  14. Attributing human mortality during extreme heat waves to anthropogenic climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mitchell, Daniel; Heaviside, Clare; Vardoulakis, Sotiris; Huntingford, Chris; Masato, Giacomo; Guillod, Benoit P.; Frumhoff, Peter; Bowery, Andy; Wallom, David; Allen, Myles

    2016-07-01

    It has been argued that climate change is the biggest global health threat of the 21st century. The extreme high temperatures of the summer of 2003 were associated with up to seventy thousand excess deaths across Europe. Previous studies have attributed the meteorological event to the human influence on climate, or examined the role of heat waves on human health. Here, for the first time, we explicitly quantify the role of human activity on climate and heat-related mortality in an event attribution framework, analysing both the Europe-wide temperature response in 2003, and localised responses over London and Paris. Using publicly-donated computing, we perform many thousands of climate simulations of a high-resolution regional climate model. This allows generation of a comprehensive statistical description of the 2003 event and the role of human influence within it, using the results as input to a health impact assessment model of human mortality. We find large-scale dynamical modes of atmospheric variability remain largely unchanged under anthropogenic climate change, and hence the direct thermodynamical response is mainly responsible for the increased mortality. In summer 2003, anthropogenic climate change increased the risk of heat-related mortality in Central Paris by ∼70% and by ∼20% in London, which experienced lower extreme heat. Out of the estimated ∼315 and ∼735 summer deaths attributed to the heatwave event in Greater London and Central Paris, respectively, 64 (±3) deaths were attributable to anthropogenic climate change in London, and 506 (±51) in Paris. Such an ability to robustly attribute specific damages to anthropogenic drivers of increased extreme heat can inform societal responses to, and responsibilities for, climate change.

  15. The Role of CO2 Physiological Forcing in Driving Future Precipitation Variability and Precipitation Extremes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Skinner, C. B.; Poulsen, C. J.

    2015-12-01

    Transpired water contributes roughly 25% to total precipitation over the Earth's land surface. In addition to transpiration's impact on climatological mean precipitation, recent work suggests that transpiration reduces daily and intraseasonal precipitation variability in tropical forest regions. Projected increases in the concentration of CO2 are expected to reduce transpiration through changes in plant physiology (termed the CO2 physiological effect). Here, we use an ensemble of climate model experiments to assess the potential contribution of the CO2 physiological effect to future changes in precipitation variability and extreme precipitation events. Within our model simulations, precipitation responses to the physiological effects of increased CO2 concentrations are greatest throughout the tropics. In most tropical forest regions CO2 physiological forcing increases the annual number of dry (less than 0.1 mm/day) and extremely wet (rainfall exceeds 95th percentile) days. Changes in precipitation are primarily driven by an increase in surface temperature and subsequent changes in atmospheric stability and moisture convergence over vegetated tropical land regions. Our results suggest that the plant physiological response to CO2 forcing may serve as an important contributor to future precipitation variability in the tropics, and that future work should aim to reduce uncertainty in the response of plant physiology to changes in climate.

  16. Projections of future extreme weather losses under changes in climate and exposure.

    PubMed

    Bouwer, Laurens M

    2013-05-01

    Many attempts are made to assess future changes in extreme weather events due to anthropogenic climate change, but few studies have estimated the potential change in economic losses from such events. Projecting losses is more complex as it requires insight into the change in the weather hazard but also into exposure and vulnerability of assets. This article discusses the issues involved as well as a framework for projecting future losses, and provides an overview of some state-of-the-art projections. Estimates of changes in losses from cyclones and floods are given, and particular attention is paid to the different approaches and assumptions. All projections show increases in extreme weather losses due to climate change. Flood losses are generally projected to increase more rapidly than losses from tropical and extra-tropical cyclones. However, for the period until the year 2040, the contribution from increasing exposure and value of capital at risk to future losses is likely to be equal or larger than the contribution from anthropogenic climate change. Given the fact that the occurrence of loss events also varies over time due to natural climate variability, the signal from anthropogenic climate change is likely to be lost among the other causes for changes in risk, at least during the period until 2040. More efforts are needed to arrive at a comprehensive approach that includes quantification of changes in hazard, exposure, and vulnerability, as well as adaptation effects.

  17. Extreme Water Levels in Bangladesh: Past Trends, Future Projections and their Impact on Mortality

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thiele-Eich, I.; Burkart, K.; Hopson, T. M.; Simmer, C.

    2014-12-01

    Climate change is expected to have an impact on meteorological and therefore hydrological extremes, thereby possibly altering the vulnerability of exposed populations. Our study focuses on Bangladesh, which is particularly vulnerable to changes in extremes due to both the large population at risk, as well as geographical characteristics such as the low-rising slope of the country through which the outflow of the combined catchments of the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna rivers (GBM, ~1.75 million km2) is channeled.Time series of daily discharge and water level data for the past 100 years were analyzed with respect to trends in frequency, magnitude and duration, focusing on rare but particularly high-risk events using extreme-value theory. Mortality data is available for a five-year period (2003-2007), with a distributed lag non-linear model used to examine possible connections between extreme water levels and mortality. Then, using output from the Community Climate System Model CCSM4, projections were made regarding future flooding due to changes in precipitation intensity and frequency, while also accounting for the backwater effect of sea-level rise. For this, the upper catchment precipitation as well as monthly mean thermosteric sea-level rise at the river mouth outflow were taken from the four CCSM4 1° 20th Century ensemble members as well as from six CCSM4 1° ensemble members for the RCP scenarios RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5.Results show that while e.g. the mean water level did not significantly rise during the past 100 years, a change in extreme water levels can be detected. In addition, annual minimum water levels have decreased, which is of particular importance as there is a significant connection to an increase in mortality for low water levels. While mortality does not seem to increase significantly due to extreme floods, our results indicate that return levels projected for the future shift progressively, with the effect being strongest for RCP 8

  18. Radiative heating of thin Al foils by intense extreme ultraviolet radiation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grabovski, E. V.; Sasorov, P. V.; Shevelko, A. P.; Aleksandrov, V. V.; Andreev, S. N.; Basko, M. M.; Branitski, A. V.; Gritsuk, A. N.; Volkov, G. S.; Laukhin, Ya. N.; Mitrofanov, K. N.; Novikov, V. G.; Oleinik, G. M.; Samokhin, A. A.; Smirnov, V. P.; Tolstikhina, I. Yu.; Frolov, I. N.; Yakushev, O. F.

    2016-03-01

    The effect of induced transparency of thin Al foils radiatively heated by intense extreme ultraviolet (EVU) radiation has been observed. The radiation of the plasma of Z-pinches appearing under the compression of tungsten liners at the Angara-5-1 facility has been used as the radiation that heats the Al foil (peak illumination on the foil ~0.55 TW/cm2) and is transmitted through it. The photoabsorption has been studied in the formed aluminum plasma at temperatures of ~10-30 eV in the density range of ~1-20 mg/cm3 in the wavelength range of ~5-24 nm. Absorption lines of Al4+...7+ ions have been identified in the experimental spectrum. In addition, radiative gas-dynamic simulations of the foil heating and expansion have been performed taking into account radiation transfer processes.

  19. Strategies to Reduce the Harmful Effects of Extreme Heat Events: A Four-City Study

    PubMed Central

    White-Newsome, Jalonne L.; McCormick, Sabrina; Sampson, Natalie; Buxton, Miatta A.; O’Neill, Marie S.; Gronlund, Carina J.; Catalano, Linda; Conlon, Kathryn C.; Parker, Edith A.

    2014-01-01

    Extreme heat events (EHEs) are becoming more intense, more frequent and longer lasting in the 21st century. These events can disproportionately impact the health of low-income, minority, and urban populations. To better understand heat-related intervention strategies used by four U.S. cities, we conducted 73 semi-structured interviews with government and non-governmental organization leaders representing public health, general social services, emergency management, meteorology, and the environmental planning sectors in Detroit, MI; New York City, NY; Philadelphia, PA and Phoenix, AZ—cities selected for their diverse demographics, climates, and climate adaptation strategies. We identified activities these leaders used to reduce the harmful effects of heat for residents in their city, as well as the obstacles they faced and the approaches they used to evaluate these efforts. Local leaders provided a description of how local context (e.g., climate, governance and city structure) impacted heat preparedness. Despite the differences among study cities, political will and resource access were critical to driving heat-health related programming. Upon completion of our interviews, we convened leaders in each city to discuss these findings and their ongoing efforts through day-long workshops. Our findings and the recommendations that emerged from these workshops could inform other local or national efforts towards preventing heat-related morbidity and mortality. PMID:24531122

  20. Excessive Heat and Respiratory Hospitalizations in New York State: Estimating Current and Future Public Health Burden Related to Climate Change

    PubMed Central

    Hsu, Wan-Hsiang; Van Zutphen, Alissa R.; Saha, Shubhayu; Luber, George; Hwang, Syni-An

    2012-01-01

    Background: Although many climate-sensitive environmental exposures are related to mortality and morbidity, there is a paucity of estimates of the public health burden attributable to climate change. Objective: We estimated the excess current and future public health impacts related to respiratory hospitalizations attributable to extreme heat in summer in New York State (NYS) overall, its geographic regions, and across different demographic strata. Methods: On the basis of threshold temperature and percent risk changes identified from our study in NYS, we estimated recent and future attributable risks related to extreme heat due to climate change using the global climate model with various climate scenarios. We estimated effects of extreme high apparent temperature in summer on respiratory admissions, days hospitalized, direct hospitalization costs, and lost productivity from days hospitalized after adjusting for inflation. Results: The estimated respiratory disease burden attributable to extreme heat at baseline (1991–2004) in NYS was 100 hospital admissions, US$644,069 in direct hospitalization costs, and 616 days of hospitalization per year. Projections for 2080–2099 based on three different climate scenarios ranged from 206–607 excess hospital admissions, US$26–$76 million in hospitalization costs, and 1,299–3,744 days of hospitalization per year. Estimated impacts varied by geographic region and population demographics. Conclusions: We estimated that excess respiratory admissions in NYS due to excessive heat would be 2 to 6 times higher in 2080–2099 than in 1991–2004. When combined with other heat-associated diseases and mortality, the potential public health burden associated with global warming could be substantial. PMID:22922791

  1. Breeding for the future: what are the potential impacts of future frost and heat events on sowing and flowering time requirements for Australian bread wheat (Triticum aestivium) varieties?

    PubMed

    Zheng, Bangyou; Chenu, Karine; Fernanda Dreccer, M; Chapman, Scott C

    2012-09-01

    Extreme climate, especially temperature, can severely reduce wheat yield. As global warming has already begun to increase mean temperature and the occurrence of extreme temperatures, it has become urgent to accelerate the 5-20 year process of breeding for new wheat varieties, to adapt to future climate. We analyzed the patterns of frost and heat events across the Australian wheatbelt based on 50 years of historical records (1960-2009) for 2864 weather stations. Flowering dates of three contrasting-maturity wheat varieties were simulated for a wide range of sowing dates in 22 locations for 'current' climate (1960-2009) and eight future scenarios (high and low CO2 emission, dry and wet precipitation scenarios, in 2030 and 2050). The results highlighted the substantial spatial variability of frost and heat events across the Australian wheatbelt in current and future climates. As both 'last frost' and 'first heat' events would occur earlier in the season, the 'target' sowing and flowering windows (defined as risk less than 10% for frost (<0 °C) and less than 30% for heat (>35 °C) around flowering) would be shifted earlier by up to 2 and 1 month(s), respectively, in 2050. A short-season variety would require a shift in target sowing window 2-fold greater than long- and medium-season varieties by 2050 (8 vs. 4 days on average across locations and scenarios, respectively), but would suffer a lesser decrease in the length of the vegetative period (4 vs. 7 days). Overall, warmer winters would shorten the wheat season by up to 6 weeks, especially during preflowering. This faster crop cycle is associated with a reduced time for resource acquisition, and potential yield loss. As far as favourable rain and modern equipment would allow, early sowing and longer season varieties (i.e. in current climate) would be the best strategies to adapt to future climates.

  2. Elevated CO2 enhances leaf senescence during extreme heat and drought in a temperate forest

    SciTech Connect

    Warren, Jeffrey; Norby, Richard J; Wullschleger, Stan D

    2011-01-01

    In 2007, an extreme drought and acute heat wave damaged ecosystems across the southeastern US, including a 19-year-old Liquidambar styraciflua L. (sweetgum) tree plantation exposed to long-term elevated CO2 treatments. Stem sap velocities in trees exposed to ambient (A) or elevated (E) CO2 were analyzed to assess potential interactions between CO2 and these weather extremes. Leaf temperature (Tleaf) and net carbon uptake (GPP) were modeled based on patterns of sap velocity to estimate indirect impacts of CO2-reduced transpiration on premature leaf senescence. Elevated CO2 reduced sap flow by 28% during early summer, and by up to 45% late in the drought during record-setting high air temperatures. Canopy transpiration and conductance declined more rapidly in ECO2 plots, resulting in ECO2 Tleaf up to 45 C, which was 1-2 C greater than ACO2 Tleaf. Pre-drought GPP was ~7% greater in ECO2 plots, then declined to 30% less than ACO2 GPP as the drought progressed. Leaf abscission peaked during this period, and was 30% greater for ECO2 trees. While ECO2 can reduce leaf-level water use under droughty conditions, acute drought or heat conditions may induce excessive stomatal closure that could offset benefits of ECO2 to temperate forest species during extreme weather events.

  3. Use of heat to estimate streambed fluxes during extreme hydrologic events

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Barlow, J.R.B.; Coupe, R.H.

    2009-01-01

    Using heat as a tracer, quantitative estimates of streambed fluxes and the critical stage for flow reversal were calculated for high-flow events that occurred on the Bogue Phalia (a tributary of the Mississippi River) following the 2005 Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. In June 2005, piezometers were installed in the Bogue Phalia upstream from the stream gage near Leland, Mississippi, to monitor temperature. Even with the hurricanes, precipitation in the Bogue Phalia Basin for the months of June to October 2005 was below normal, and consequently, streamflow was below the long-term average. Temperature profiles from the piezometers indicate that the Bogue Phalia was a gaining stream during most of this time, but relatively static streambed temperatures suggested long-term data was warranted for heat-based estimates of flux. However, the hurricanes caused a pair of sharp rises in stream stage over short periods of time, increasing the potential for rapid heat-based modeling and for identification of the critical stage for flow reversal into the streambed. Heat-based modeling fits of simulated-to-measured sediment temperatures show that once a critical stage was surpassed, flow direction reversed into the streambed. Results of this study demonstrate the ability to constrain estimates of streambed water flux and the critical stage of flow reversal, with little available groundwater head data, by using heat as a tracer during extreme stage events. copyright. Published in 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

  4. Acquired thermotolerance and heat shock in the extremely thermophilic archaebacterium Sulfolobus sp. strain B12.

    PubMed

    Trent, J D; Osipiuk, J; Pinkau, T

    1990-03-01

    The extreme thermophile Sulfolobus sp. strain B12 exhibits an acquired thermotolerance response. Thus, survival of cells from a 70 degrees C culture at the lethal temperature of 92 degrees C was enhanced by as much as 6 orders of magnitude over a 2-h period if the culture was preheated to 88 degrees C for 60 min or longer before being exposed to the lethal temperature. In eubacteria and eucaryotes, acquired thermotolerance correlates with the induced synthesis of a dozen or so proteins known as heat shock proteins. In this Sulfolobus species, it correlates with the preferential synthesis of primarily one major protein (55 kilodaltons) and, to a much lesser extent, two minor proteins (28 and 35 kilodaltons). Since the synthesis of all other proteins was radically reduced and these proteins were apparently not degraded or exported, their relative abundance within the cell increased during the time the cells were becoming thermotolerant. They could not yet be related to known heat shock proteins. In immunoassays, they were not cross-reactive with antibodies against heat shock proteins from Escherichia coli (DnaK and GroE), which are highly conserved between eubacteria and eucaryotes. However, it appears that if acquired thermotolerance depends on the synthesis of protective proteins, then in this extremely thermophilic archaebacterium it depends primarily on one protein.

  5. Acquired thermotolerance and heat shock in the extremely thermophilic archaebacterium Sulfolobus sp. strain B12

    SciTech Connect

    Trent, J.D.; Osipiuk, J.; Pinkau, T. )

    1990-03-01

    The extreme thermophile Sulfolobus sp. strain B12 exhibits an acquired thermotolerance response. Thus, survival of cells from a 70{degrees}C culture at the lethal temperature of 92{degrees}C was enhanced by as much as 6 orders of magnitude over a 2-h period if the culture was preheated to 88{degrees}C for 60 min or longer before being exposed to the lethal temperature. In eubacteria and eucaryotes, acquired thermotolerance correlates with the induced synthesis of a dozen or so proteins known as heat shock proteins. In this Sulfolobus species, it correlates with the preferential synthesis of primarily one major protein (55 kilodaltons) and, to a much lesser extent, two minor proteins (28 and 35 kilodaltons). Since the synthesis of all other proteins was radically reduced and these proteins were apparently not degraded or exported, their relative abundance within the cell increased during the time the cells were becoming thermotolerant. They could not yet be related to known heat shock proteins. In immunoassays, they were not cross-reactive with antibodies against heat shock proteins from Escherichia coli (DnaK and GroE), which are highly conserved between eubacteria and eucaryotes. However, it appears that if acquired thermotolerance depends on the synthesis of protective proteins, then in this extremely thermophilic archaebacterium it depends primarily on one protein.

  6. Investigation of Loop Heat Pipe Survival and Restart After Extreme Cold Environment Exposure

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Golliher, Eric; Ku, Jentung; Licari, Anthony; Sanzi, James

    2010-01-01

    NASA plans human exploration near the South Pole of the Moon, and other locations where the environment is extremely cold. This paper reports on the heat transfer performance of a loop heat pipe (LHP) exposed to extreme cold under the simulated reduced gravitational environment of the Moon. A common method of spacecraft thermal control is to use a LHP with ammonia working fluid. Typically, a small amount of heat is provided either by electrical heaters or by environmental design, such that the LHP condenser temperature never drops below the freezing point of ammonia. The concern is that a liquid-filled, frozen condenser would not restart, or that a thawing condenser would damage the tubing due to the expansion of ammonia upon thawing. This paper reports the results of an experimental investigation of a novel approach to avoid these problems. The LHP compensation chamber (CC) is conditioned such that all the ammonia liquid is removed from the condenser and the LHP is nonoperating. The condenser temperature is then reduced to below that of the ammonia freezing point. The LHP is then successfully restarted.

  7. Cause-Specific Risk of Hospital Admission Related to Extreme Heat in Older Adults

    PubMed Central

    Bobb, Jennifer F.; Obermeyer, Ziad; Wang, Yun; Dominici, Francesca

    2015-01-01

    IMPORTANCE Heat exposure is known to have a complex set of physiological effects on multiple organ systems, but current understanding of the health effects is mostly based on studies investigating a small number of prespecified health outcomes such as cardiovascular and respiratory diseases. OBJECTIVES To identify possible causes of hospital admissions during extreme heat events and to estimate their risks using historical data. DESIGN, SETTING, AND POPULATION Matched analysis of time series data describing daily hospital admissions of Medicare enrollees (23.7 million fee-for-service beneficiaries [aged ≥65 years] per year; 85% of all Medicare enrollees) for the period 1999 to 2010 in 1943 counties in the United States with at least 5 summers of near-complete (>95%) daily temperature data. EXPOSURES Heat wave periods, defined as 2 or more consecutive days with temperatures exceeding the 99th percentile of county-specific daily temperatures, matched to non–heat wave periods by county and week. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Daily cause-specific hospitalization rates by principal discharge diagnosis codes, grouped into 283 disease categories using a validated approach. RESULTS Risks of hospitalization for fluid and electrolyte disorders, renal failure, urinary tract infection, septicemia, and heat stroke were statistically significantly higher on heat wave days relative to matched non–heat wave days, but risk of hospitalization for congestive heart failure was lower (P < .05). Relative risks for these disease groups were 1.18 (95% CI, 1.12–1.25) for fluid and electrolyte disorders, 1.14 (95% CI, 1.06–1.23) for renal failure, 1.10 (95% CI, 1.04–1.16) for urinary tract infections, 1.06 (95% CI, 1.00–1.11) for septicemia, and 2.54 (95% CI, 2.14–3.01) for heat stroke. Absolute risk differences were 0.34 (95% CI, 0.22–0.46) excess admissions per 100 000 individuals at risk for fluid and electrolyte disorders, 0.25 (95% CI, 0.12–0.39) for renal failure, 0

  8. Lysosomal responses to heat-shock of seasonal temperature extremes in Cd-exposed mussels.

    PubMed

    Múgica, M; Izagirre, U; Marigómez, I

    2015-07-01

    The present study was aimed at determining the effect of temperature extremes on lysosomal biomarkers in mussels exposed to a model toxic pollutant (Cd) at different seasons. For this purpose, temperature was elevated 10°C (from 12°C to 22°C in winter and from 18°C to 28°C in summer) for a period of 6h (heat-shock) in control and Cd-exposed mussels, and then returned back to initial one. Lysosomal membrane stability and lysosomal structural changes in digestive gland were investigated. In winter, heat-shock reduced the labilisation period (LP) of the lysosomal membrane, especially in Cd-exposed mussels, and provoked transient lysosomal enlargement. LP values recovered after the heat-shock cessation but lysosomal enlargement prevailed in both experimental groups. In summer, heat-shock induced remarkable reduction in LP and lysosomal enlargement (more markedly in Cd-exposed mussels), which recovered within 3 days. Besides, whilst heat-shock effects on LP were practically identical for Cd-exposed mussels in winter and summer, the effects were longer-lasting in summer than in winter for control mussels. Thus, lysosomal responsiveness after heat-shock was higher in summer than in winter but recovery was faster as well, and therefore the consequences of the heat shock seem to be more decisive in winter. In contrast, inter-season differences were attenuated in the presence of Cd. Consequently, mussels seem to be better prepared in summer than in winter to stand short periods of abrupt temperature change; this is, however, compromised when mussels are exposed to pollutants such as Cd.

  9. Carbon uptake and water use in woodlands and forests in southern Australia during an extreme heat wave event in the "Angry Summer" of 2012/2013

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van Gorsel, Eva; Wolf, Sebastian; Cleverly, James; Isaac, Peter; Haverd, Vanessa; Ewenz, Cäcilia; Arndt, Stefan; Beringer, Jason; Resco de Dios, Víctor; Evans, Bradley J.; Griebel, Anne; Hutley, Lindsay B.; Keenan, Trevor; Kljun, Natascha; Macfarlane, Craig; Meyer, Wayne S.; McHugh, Ian; Pendall, Elise; Prober, Suzanne M.; Silberstein, Richard

    2016-11-01

    As a result of climate change warmer temperatures are projected through the 21st century and are already increasing above modelled predictions. Apart from increases in the mean, warm/hot temperature extremes are expected to become more prevalent in the future, along with an increase in the frequency of droughts. It is crucial to better understand the response of terrestrial ecosystems to such temperature extremes for predicting land-surface feedbacks in a changing climate. While land-surface feedbacks in drought conditions and during heat waves have been reported from Europe and the US, direct observations of the impact of such extremes on the carbon and water cycles in Australia have been lacking. During the 2012/2013 summer, Australia experienced a record-breaking heat wave with an exceptional spatial extent that lasted for several weeks. In this study we synthesised eddy-covariance measurements from seven woodlands and one forest site across three biogeographic regions in southern Australia. These observations were combined with model results from BIOS2 (Haverd et al., 2013a, b) to investigate the effect of the summer heat wave on the carbon and water exchange of terrestrial ecosystems which are known for their resilience toward hot and dry conditions. We found that water-limited woodland and energy-limited forest ecosystems responded differently to the heat wave. During the most intense part of the heat wave, the woodlands experienced decreased latent heat flux (23 % of background value), increased Bowen ratio (154 %) and reduced carbon uptake (60 %). At the same time the forest ecosystem showed increased latent heat flux (151 %), reduced Bowen ratio (19 %) and increased carbon uptake (112 %). Higher temperatures caused increased ecosystem respiration at all sites (up to 139 %). During daytime all ecosystems remained carbon sinks, but carbon uptake was reduced in magnitude. The number of hours during which the ecosystem acted as a carbon sink was also reduced

  10. Future directions in two-phase flow and heat transfer in space

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bankoff, S. George

    1994-01-01

    Some areas of opportunity for future research in microgravity two-phase flow and heat transfer are pointed out. These satisfy the dual requirements of relevance to current and future needs, and scientific/engineering interest.

  11. The 2010 Pakistan Flood and the Russia Heat Wave: Teleconnection of Extremes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lau, William K.; Kim, K. M.

    2010-01-01

    The Pakistan flood and the Russia heat wave/Vvild fires of the summer of2010 were two of the most extreme, and catastrophic events in the histories of the two countries occurring at about the same time. To a casual observer, the timing may just be a random coincidence of nature, because the two events were separated by long distances, and represented opposite forces of nature, i.e., flood vs. drought, and water vs. fire. In this paper, using NASA satellite and NOAA reanalysis data, we presented observation evidences that that the two events were indeed physically connected.

  12. Climate extremes in urban area and their impact on human health: the summer heat waves

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baldi, Marina

    2014-05-01

    In the period 1951-2012 the average global land and ocean temperature has increased by approximately 0.72°C [0.49-0.89] when described by a linear trend, and is projected to rapidly increase. Each of the past three decades has been warmer than all the previous decades, with the decade of the 2000's as the warmest, and, since 1880, nine of the ten warmest years are in the 21st century, the only exception being 1998, which was warmed by the strongest El Niño event of the past century. In parallel an increase in the frequency and intensity of extremely hot days is detected with differences at different scales, which represent an health risk specially in largely populated areas as documented for several regions in the world including the Euro-Mediterranean region. If it is still under discussion if heat wave episodes are a direct result of the warming of the lower troposphere, or if, more likely, they are a regional climate event, however heat episodes have been studied in order to define their correlation with large scale atmospheric patterns and with changes in the regional circulation. Whatever the causes and the spatio-temporal extension of the episodes, epidemiological studies show that these conditions pose increasing health risks inducing heat-related diseases including hyperthermia and heat stress, cardiovascular and respiratory illnesses in susceptible individuals with a significant increase in morbidity and mortality especially in densely populated urban areas. In several Mediterranean cities peaks of mortality associated with extremely high temperature (with simultaneous high humidity levels) have been documented showing that, in some cases, a large increase in daily mortality has been reached compared to the average for the period. The number of fatalities during the summer 2003 heat wave in Europe was estimated to largely exceed the average value of some between 22000 and 50000 cases. In the same summer it was also unusually hot across much of Asia, and

  13. Increasing thermomagnetic stability of composite superconductors with additives of extremely-large-heat-capacity substances

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Keilin, V. E.; Kovalev, I. A.; Kruglov, S. L.; Lupanov, D. É.; Shcherbakov, V. I.

    2008-05-01

    We have studied the thermomagnetic stability (with respect to magnetic flux disturbances) of composite superconductors screened by additives of rare earth compounds possessing extremely high heat capacity at low temperatures. Three tubular composite structures have been manufactured and studied with respect to screening of the central region from variations of an external magnetic field. The effect of large-heat-capacity substances (LHCSs) was evaluated by measuring a jump in the magnetic flux in response to the rate of variation (ramp) of the external magnetic field. It is established that the adiabatic criterion of stability (magnetic-flux jump field) in the sample structures containing LHCSs significantly increases—by 20% for HoCu2 intermetallic compound and 31% for Gd2O2S ceramics—as compared to the control structure free of such additives.

  14. Design of an extreme ultraviolet spectrometer suite to characterize rapidly heated solid matter

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ivancic, S. T.; Stillman, C. R.; Nelson, D.; Begishev, I. A.; Mileham, C.; Nilson, P. M.; Froula, D. H.

    2016-11-01

    An ultrafast streaked extreme-ultraviolet (XUV) spectrometer (5-20 nm) was developed to measure the temperature dynamics in rapidly heated samples. Rapid heating makes it possible to create exotic states of matter that can be probed during their inertial confinement time—tens of picoseconds in the case of micron-sized targets. In contrast to other forms of pyrometry, where the temperature is inferred from bulk x-ray emission, XUV emission is restricted to the sample surface, allowing for a temperature measurement at the material-vacuum interface. The surface-temperature measurement constrains models for the release of high-energy-density material. Coupling the XUV spectrometer to an ultrafast (<2-ps) streak camera provided picosecond-time scale evolution of the surface-layer emission. Two high-throughput XUV spectrometers were designed to simultaneously measure the time-resolved and absolute XUV emission.

  15. Design of an extreme ultraviolet spectrometer suite to characterize rapidly heated solid matter.

    PubMed

    Ivancic, S T; Stillman, C R; Nelson, D; Begishev, I A; Mileham, C; Nilson, P M; Froula, D H

    2016-11-01

    An ultrafast streaked extreme-ultraviolet (XUV) spectrometer (5-20 nm) was developed to measure the temperature dynamics in rapidly heated samples. Rapid heating makes it possible to create exotic states of matter that can be probed during their inertial confinement time-tens of picoseconds in the case of micron-sized targets. In contrast to other forms of pyrometry, where the temperature is inferred from bulk x-ray emission, XUV emission is restricted to the sample surface, allowing for a temperature measurement at the material-vacuum interface. The surface-temperature measurement constrains models for the release of high-energy-density material. Coupling the XUV spectrometer to an ultrafast (<2-ps) streak camera provided picosecond-time scale evolution of the surface-layer emission. Two high-throughput XUV spectrometers were designed to simultaneously measure the time-resolved and absolute XUV emission.

  16. Detection of Historical and Future Precipitation Variations and Extremes Over the Continental United States

    SciTech Connect

    Anderson, Bruce T.

    2015-12-11

    through a change in the underlying climate. As such, this method is capable of detecting “hot spot” regions—as well as “flare ups” within the hot spot regions—that have experienced interannual to multi-decadal scale variations and trends in seasonal-mean precipitation and extreme events. Further by applying the same methods to numerical climate models we can discern the fidelity of the current-generation climate models in representing detectability within the observed climate system. In this way, we can objectively determine the utility of these model systems for performing detection studies of historical and future climate change.

  17. Heat-shield for Extreme Entry Environment Technology (HEEET) Development Status

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Venkatapathy, Ethiraj; Ellerby, Don; Gage, Peter

    2016-01-01

    The Heat shield for Extreme Entry Environment Technology (HEEET) Project is a NASA STMD and SMD co-funded effort. The goal is to develop and mission infuse a new ablative Thermal Protection System that can withstand extreme entry. It is targeted to support NASA's high priority missions, as defined in the latest decadal survey, to destinations such as Venus and Saturn in-situ robotic science missions. Entry into these planetary atmospheres results in extreme heating. The entry peak heat-flux and associated pressure are estimated to be between one and two orders of magnitude higher than those experienced by Mars Science Laboratory or Lunar return missions. In the recent New Frontiers community announcement NASA has indicated that it is considering providing an increase to the PI managed mission cost (PIMMC) for investigations utilizing the Heat Shield for Extreme Entry Environment Technology (HEEET) and in addition, NASA is considering limiting the risk assessment to only their accommodation on the spacecraft and the mission environment. The HEEET ablative TPS utilizes 3D weaving technology to manufacture a dual layer material architecture. The 3-D weaving allows for flat panels to be woven. The dual layer consists of a top layer designed to withstand the extreme external environment while the inner or insulating layer by design, is designed to achieve low thermal conductivity, and it keeps the heat from conducting towards the structure underneath. Both arc jet testing combined with material properties have been used to develop thermal response models that allows for comparison of performance with heritage carbon phenolic. A 50% mass efficiency is achieved by the dual layer construct compared to carbon phenolic for a broad range of missions both to Saturn and Venus. The 3-D woven flat preforms are molded to achieve the shape as they are compliant and then resin infusion with curing forms a rigid panels. These panels are then bonded on to the aeroshell structure. Gaps

  18. Experimental Realization of Extreme Heat Flux Concentration with Easy-to-Make Thermal Metamaterials

    PubMed Central

    Chen, Fei; Yuan Lei, Dang

    2015-01-01

    The ability to harvest thermal energy and manipulate heat fluxes has recently attracted a great deal of research interest because this is critical to achieve efficient solar-to-thermal energy conversion in the technology of concentrated solar thermal collectors. Thermal metamaterials with engineered thermal conduction are often utilized to control the diffusive heat flow in ways otherwise not possible with naturally occurring materials. In this work, we adopt the transformation thermodynamics approach to design an annular fan-shaped thermal metamaterial which is capable of guiding heat fluxes and concentrating thermal energy to the central region of the metamaterial device without disturbing the temperature profile outside the structure – a fascinating and unique feature impossibly achieved with homogeneous materials. In experiment, this rationally-designed metamaterial structure demonstrates extreme heat flux compression from both line-shaped and point thermal sources with measured concentration efficiency up to 83.1%, providing the first experimental realization of our recent theoretical prediction (T. Han et al., Energy Environ. Sci., 2013, 6, 3537-3541). These unprecedented results may open up new possibilities for engineering thermal materials with desired properties that can be used for dramatically enhancing the efficiency of the existing solar thermal collectors. PMID:26109080

  19. Experimental Realization of Extreme Heat Flux Concentration with Easy-to-Make Thermal Metamaterials.

    PubMed

    Chen, Fei; Lei, Dang Yuan

    2015-06-25

    The ability to harvest thermal energy and manipulate heat fluxes has recently attracted a great deal of research interest because this is critical to achieve efficient solar-to-thermal energy conversion in the technology of concentrated solar thermal collectors. Thermal metamaterials with engineered thermal conduction are often utilized to control the diffusive heat flow in ways otherwise not possible with naturally occurring materials. In this work, we adopt the transformation thermodynamics approach to design an annular fan-shaped thermal metamaterial which is capable of guiding heat fluxes and concentrating thermal energy to the central region of the metamaterial device without disturbing the temperature profile outside the structure--a fascinating and unique feature impossibly achieved with homogeneous materials. In experiment, this rationally-designed metamaterial structure demonstrates extreme heat flux compression from both line-shaped and point thermal sources with measured concentration efficiency up to 83.1%, providing the first experimental realization of our recent theoretical prediction (T. Han et al., Energy Environ. Sci., 2013, 6, 3537-3541). These unprecedented results may open up new possibilities for engineering thermal materials with desired properties that can be used for dramatically enhancing the efficiency of the existing solar thermal collectors.

  20. Experimental Realization of Extreme Heat Flux Concentration with Easy-to-Make Thermal Metamaterials

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Fei; Yuan Lei, Dang

    2015-06-01

    The ability to harvest thermal energy and manipulate heat fluxes has recently attracted a great deal of research interest because this is critical to achieve efficient solar-to-thermal energy conversion in the technology of concentrated solar thermal collectors. Thermal metamaterials with engineered thermal conduction are often utilized to control the diffusive heat flow in ways otherwise not possible with naturally occurring materials. In this work, we adopt the transformation thermodynamics approach to design an annular fan-shaped thermal metamaterial which is capable of guiding heat fluxes and concentrating thermal energy to the central region of the metamaterial device without disturbing the temperature profile outside the structure - a fascinating and unique feature impossibly achieved with homogeneous materials. In experiment, this rationally-designed metamaterial structure demonstrates extreme heat flux compression from both line-shaped and point thermal sources with measured concentration efficiency up to 83.1%, providing the first experimental realization of our recent theoretical prediction (T. Han et al., Energy Environ. Sci., 2013, 6, 3537-3541). These unprecedented results may open up new possibilities for engineering thermal materials with desired properties that can be used for dramatically enhancing the efficiency of the existing solar thermal collectors.

  1. Climate Change and Health Risks from Extreme Heat and Air Pollution in the Eastern United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Limaye, V.; Vargo, J.; Harkey, M.; Holloway, T.; Meier, P.; Patz, J.

    2013-12-01

    Climate change is expected to exacerbate health risks from exposure to extreme heat and air pollution through both direct and indirect mechanisms. Directly, warmer ambient temperatures promote biogenic emissions of ozone precursors and favor the formation of ground-level ozone, while an anticipated increase in the frequency of stagnant air masses will allow fine particulates to accumulate. Indirectly, warmer summertime temperatures stimulate energy demand and exacerbate polluting emissions from the electricity sector. Thus, while technological adaptations such as air conditioning can reduce risks from exposures to extreme heat, they can trigger downstream damage to air quality and public health. Through an interdisciplinary modeling effort, we quantify the impacts of climate change on ambient temperatures, summer energy demand, air quality, and public health. The first phase of this work explores how climate change will directly impact the burden of heat-related mortality. Climatic patterns, demographic trends, and epidemiologic risk models suggest that populations in the eastern United States are likely to experience an increasing heat stress mortality burden in response to rising summertime air temperatures. We use North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program modeling data to estimate mid-century 2-meter air temperatures and humidity across the eastern US from June-August, and quantify how long-term changes in actual and apparent temperatures from present-day will affect the annual burden of heat-related mortality across this region. With the US Environmental Protection Agency's Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program, we estimate health risks using concentration-response functions, which relate temperature increases to changes in annual mortality rates. We compare mid-century summertime temperature data, downscaled using the Weather Research and Forecasting model, to 2007 baseline temperatures at a 12 km resolution in order to estimate

  2. Spatial impacts of heat waves in mortality. Evaluating current risks and future threats

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Andrade, H.; Canario, P.; Nogueira, H.

    2009-09-01

    Impacts of heat waves in morbidity and mortality are largely known. Climate Change is expected to increase the climate health impacts in summer while the winter will be probably favored. The health impacts of extreme thermal events are mainly studied at a national or regional level, considering macro or mesoscale thermal features. But it can be assumed that local variations in mortality must exist, associated, in one hand, with local climatic differences, due to features such as land use and urbanization and, in other hand, with vulnerability factors (depending on demographic and socioeconomic characteristics of populations). A model of hazard - vulnerability - risk was developed, to analyze the spatial variations of mortality in extreme thermal events, at the level of city district, in the Lisbon metropolitan area (Portugal). In that model, risk is considered as the product of hazard and vulnerability. Daily mortality data by sex, age and cause of death was supplied by the Health National Authority. The research is yet on-going. In our model, hazard is represented mainly by temperature and air pollution (the influence of other atmospheric variables that affect the human energy balance, such as solar radiation and wind speed should be tested too). Small scale variation of meteorological features, in extreme thermal events, were simulated with a Regional Atmospheric Model (Brazilian Regional Atmospheric Modeling System) and the results were validated and calibrated using observation data from an urban network of termo-higrometers placed in sites with different urban characteristics. Vulnerability is a result on personal sensitivity and exposure. Personal sensitivity is assessed considering individual constitutional and demographic factors as well as socio, cultural and economic variables. Daily mobility determines the population exposure to heat. Since many of these variables are redundant, a set of indicators, including a multiple deprivation index, was used. A

  3. Detecting changes in future precipitation extremes over eight river basins in China using RegCM4 downscaling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Qin, Peihua; Xie, Zhenghui

    2016-06-01

    To detect the frequency and intensity of precipitation extremes in China for the middle 21st century, simulations were conducted with the regional climate model RegCM4 forced by the global climate model GFDL_ESM2M under the middle emission scenario (RCP4.5). Compared with observed precipitation extremes for the reference period from 1982 to 2001, RegCM4 generally performed better in most river basins of China relative to GFDL. In the future period 2032-2051, more wet extremes will occur relative to the present period in most study areas, especially in southeast China while significantly less dry extremes will occur in arid and semiarid areas in northwest China. In contrast, areas in northwest China showed an increase in the trend of dry extremes (CDD) and a decrease in the trend of wet extremes (R95p and Rx5day), which might result in more drought in the future. Finally, we discuss in detail the possible reason of these processes, such as zonal wind, vertical wind, and water vapor. In the Huaihe river basin (HU), reduced south winds in summer (June-August) and a decrease of the upward vertical p velocity cause less future precipitation and might lead to changes of extreme events. We also completed correlation analysis between the precipitation extreme indices and the climate factors and found that the precipitation extremes were more sensitive to the annual and seasonal mean precipitation, total water vapor, and upward vertical wind relative to the geopotential height and 2 m temperature over most river basins in China. Perhaps the changes of some wet extremes could be verified partly through changes of annual precipitation due to their high consistence.

  4. The 2010 Pakistan Flood and Russian Heat Wave: Teleconnection of Hydrometeorological Extremes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lau, William K. M.; Kim, Kyu-Myong

    2012-01-01

    In this paper, preliminary results are presented showing that the two record-setting extreme events during 2010 summer (i.e., the Russian heat wave-wildfires and Pakistan flood) were physically connected. It is found that the Russian heat wave was associated with the development of an extraordinarily strong and prolonged extratropical atmospheric blocking event in association with the excitation of a large-scale atmospheric Rossby wave train spanning western Russia, Kazakhstan, and the northwestern China-Tibetan Plateau region. The southward penetration of upper-level vorticity perturbations in the leading trough of the Rossby wave was instrumental in triggering anomalously heavy rain events over northern Pakistan and vicinity in mid- to late July. Also shown are evidences that the Russian heat wave was amplified by a positive feedback through changes in surface energy fluxes between the atmospheric blocking pattern and an underlying extensive land region with below-normal soil moisture. The Pakistan heavy rain events were amplified and sustained by strong anomalous southeasterly flow along the Himalayan foothills and abundant moisture transport from the Bay of Bengal in connection with the northward propagation of the monsoonal intraseasonal oscillation.

  5. Effect of latent heating on mesoscale vortex development during extreme precipitation: Colorado, September 2013

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Morales, Annareli

    From 9-16 September 2013, a slow-moving cut-off low in the southwestern U.S. funneled unseasonal amounts of moisture to the Colorado Front Range, resulting in extreme precipitation and flooding. The heaviest precipitation during the September 2013 event occurred over the northern Colorado Front Range, producing a 7-day total of over 380 mm of rain. The flash flooding caused over $3 billion in damage to property and infrastructure and resulted in eight fatalities. This study will focus on the precipitation and mesoscale features during 11-12 September 2013 in Boulder, CO. During the evening of 11 September, Boulder experienced flash flooding as a result of high rain rates accumulating over 180 mm of rain in 6 hours. From 0400-0700 UTC 12 September, a mesoscale vortex (mesovortex) was observed to travel northwestward towards Boulder. This circulation enhanced upslope flow and was associated with localized deep convection. The mesovortex originated in an area common for the development of a lee vortex known as the Denver Cyclone. We hypothesize that this mesoscale vortex is not associated with lee vortex formation, such as the Denver Cyclone, but developed through the release of latent heat from microphysical process. The Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecast (ARW) model was used to 1) produce a control simulation that properly represented the evolution and processes of interest during the event and 2) test the importance of latent heating to the development and evolution of the mesovortex. The results from various latent heating experiments suggested that the mesovortex did not develop through lee vortex formation and the latent heat released just before and during the mesovortex event was important to its development. Results also showed latent heating affected the flow field, resulting in a positive feedback between the circulation, associated low-level jet, and convection leading to further upslope flow and precipitation development. Further experiments

  6. Facing the Future: Effects of Short-Term Climate Extremes on Isoprene-Emitting and Nonemitting Poplar.

    PubMed

    Vanzo, Elisa; Jud, Werner; Li, Ziru; Albert, Andreas; Domagalska, Malgorzata A; Ghirardo, Andrea; Niederbacher, Bishu; Frenzel, Juliane; Beemster, Gerrit T S; Asard, Han; Rennenberg, Heinz; Sharkey, Thomas D; Hansel, Armin; Schnitzler, Jörg-Peter

    2015-09-01

    Isoprene emissions from poplar (Populus spp.) plantations can influence atmospheric chemistry and regional climate. These emissions respond strongly to temperature, [CO2], and drought, but the superimposed effect of these three climate change factors are, for the most part, unknown. Performing predicted climate change scenario simulations (periodic and chronic heat and drought spells [HDSs] applied under elevated [CO2]), we analyzed volatile organic compound emissions, photosynthetic performance, leaf growth, and overall carbon (C) gain of poplar genotypes emitting (IE) and nonemitting (NE) isoprene. We aimed (1) to evaluate the proposed beneficial effect of isoprene emission on plant stress mitigation and recovery capacity and (2) to estimate the cumulative net C gain under the projected future climate. During HDSs, the chloroplastidic electron transport rate of NE plants became impaired, while IE plants maintained high values similar to unstressed controls. During recovery from HDS episodes, IE plants reached higher daily net CO2 assimilation rates compared with NE genotypes. Irrespective of the genotype, plants undergoing chronic HDSs showed the lowest cumulative C gain. Under control conditions simulating ambient [CO2], the C gain was lower in the IE plants than in the NE plants. In summary, the data on the overall C gain and plant growth suggest that the beneficial function of isoprene emission in poplar might be of minor importance to mitigate predicted short-term climate extremes under elevated [CO2]. Moreover, we demonstrate that an analysis of the canopy-scale dynamics of isoprene emission and photosynthetic performance under multiple stresses is essential to understand the overall performance under proposed future conditions.

  7. Facing the Future: Effects of Short-Term Climate Extremes on Isoprene-Emitting and Nonemitting Poplar1

    PubMed Central

    Vanzo, Elisa; Jud, Werner; Li, Ziru; Albert, Andreas; Domagalska, Malgorzata A.; Ghirardo, Andrea; Niederbacher, Bishu; Frenzel, Juliane; Beemster, Gerrit T.S.; Asard, Han; Rennenberg, Heinz; Sharkey, Thomas D.; Hansel, Armin; Schnitzler, Jörg-Peter

    2015-01-01

    Isoprene emissions from poplar (Populus spp.) plantations can influence atmospheric chemistry and regional climate. These emissions respond strongly to temperature, [CO2], and drought, but the superimposed effect of these three climate change factors are, for the most part, unknown. Performing predicted climate change scenario simulations (periodic and chronic heat and drought spells [HDSs] applied under elevated [CO2]), we analyzed volatile organic compound emissions, photosynthetic performance, leaf growth, and overall carbon (C) gain of poplar genotypes emitting (IE) and nonemitting (NE) isoprene. We aimed (1) to evaluate the proposed beneficial effect of isoprene emission on plant stress mitigation and recovery capacity and (2) to estimate the cumulative net C gain under the projected future climate. During HDSs, the chloroplastidic electron transport rate of NE plants became impaired, while IE plants maintained high values similar to unstressed controls. During recovery from HDS episodes, IE plants reached higher daily net CO2 assimilation rates compared with NE genotypes. Irrespective of the genotype, plants undergoing chronic HDSs showed the lowest cumulative C gain. Under control conditions simulating ambient [CO2], the C gain was lower in the IE plants than in the NE plants. In summary, the data on the overall C gain and plant growth suggest that the beneficial function of isoprene emission in poplar might be of minor importance to mitigate predicted short-term climate extremes under elevated [CO2]. Moreover, we demonstrate that an analysis of the canopy-scale dynamics of isoprene emission and photosynthetic performance under multiple stresses is essential to understand the overall performance under proposed future conditions. PMID:26162427

  8. Solar assisted heat pumps: A possible wave of the future

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Smetana, F. O.

    1976-01-01

    With the higher costs of electric power and the widespread interest to use solar energy to reduce the national dependence on fossil fuels, heat pumps are examined to determine their suitability for use with solar energy systems.

  9. Extreme AO: The future of high-contrast imaging with adaptive optics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Macintosh, B.

    2001-05-01

    Title: Extreme AO: The future of high-contrast-imaging with adaptive optics. Adaptive optics (AO) partially cancels wavefront aberrations caused by atmospheric turbulence and can allow ground-basd telescope to reach their full diffraction-limited resolution. A fundamental limitation of all AO systems is that they have little effect on the atmospheric scattered light halo beyond a control radius roughly given by the wavelength of interest divided by the effective actuator spaceing d; for typical modern AO systems, d=60 cm and the control radius is about 0.6 arcseconds at H band. AO can still enhance contrast even beyond this radius, especially for point-source companions, by concentrating the light from the companion into a diffraction-limited spike, but the residual light remains a limitation on our ability to carry out high-contrast imaging from the ground. We will discuss potential improvements to AO over the next decade and the science they will enable. First, in the near term, high-order AO systems will soon be operational on most 8-10 m telescopes; such systems are theoretically capable of directly detecting extrasolar planets in wide (20-150 AU) orbits, and the capabilities and limitations of these systems will be discussed. Second, in the moderate term, new instrument technologies could substantially increase the performance of these systems, including exotic phase-based coronagraphs or "dark speckle" techniques. Third, it will soon be possible to construct "extreme" adaptive optics (EAO) systems, with many thousand actuators and d=5-20cm, capable of more deeply surpressing the atmospheric halo out to a much larger radius than current systems. Coronagraphs and EAO will substantially increase our sensitivity to diffuse circumstellar dust and could conceivably reach the contrast levels necessary to see giant plants around a handful of nearby stars. Finally, within a decade construction should be underway on next-generation extremely large (25-100 m) telescopes

  10. Prediction of laser cutting heat affected zone by extreme learning machine

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anicic, Obrad; Jović, Srđan; Skrijelj, Hivzo; Nedić, Bogdan

    2017-01-01

    Heat affected zone (HAZ) of the laser cutting process may be developed based on combination of different factors. In this investigation the HAZ forecasting, based on the different laser cutting parameters, was analyzed. The main goal was to predict the HAZ according to three inputs. The purpose of this research was to develop and apply the Extreme Learning Machine (ELM) to predict the HAZ. The ELM results were compared with genetic programming (GP) and artificial neural network (ANN). The reliability of the computational models were accessed based on simulation results and by using several statistical indicators. Based upon simulation results, it was demonstrated that ELM can be utilized effectively in applications of HAZ forecasting.

  11. Interplay of electron heating and saturable absorption in ultrafast extreme ultraviolet transmission of condensed matter

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Di Cicco, Andrea; Hatada, Keisuke; Giangrisostomi, Erika; Gunnella, Roberto; Bencivenga, Filippo; Principi, Emiliano; Masciovecchio, Claudio; Filipponi, Adriano

    2014-12-01

    High intensity pulses obtained by modern extreme ultraviolet (EUV) and x-ray photon sources allows the observation of peculiar phenomena in condensed matter. Experiments performed at the Fermi@Elettra FEL-1 free-electron-laser source at 23.7, 33.5, and 37.5 eV on Al thin films, for an intermediate-fluence range up to about 20 J /cm2, show evidence for a nonmonotonic EUV transmission trend. A decreasing transmission up to about 5 -10 J /cm2 is followed by an increase at higher fluence, associated with saturable absorption effects. The present findings are interpreted within a simplified three-channel model, showing that an account of the interplay between ultrafast electron heating and saturation effects is required to explain the observed transmission trend.

  12. Reply to Rhines and Huybers: Changes in the Frequency of Extreme Summer Heat

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hansen, James; Sato, Makiko; Ruedy, Reto

    2013-01-01

    Rhines and Huybers are correct that the decreasing number of measurement stations in recent years contributed slightly to our calculated increase of extreme summer mean temperature anomalies. However, the increased frequency of extreme heat anomalies is accounted for mainly by (i) higher mean temperature of recent decades relative to the base period 1951-1980, and (ii) the continuing upward temperature trend during recent decades. The effect of decreasing stations is shown by comparing our prior analysis with results using only stations with data records in both the base period and recent years (Fig. 1). The distribution is noisier, and the area with temperature anomaly exceeding three SDs during 2001-2011 decreases from 9.6 to 9.3% for the reduced number of stations (1,886 rather than 6,147), but our conclusions are not changed qualitatively. The temperature anomaly distribution shifts to the right and broadens because it is defined relative to a fixed (1951-1980) base period, during which global temperatures were within the Holocene range. We argue on the basis of accelerating ice loss from Greenland and Antarctica and rapidly rising sea level (now exceeding 3 mm/y or 3 m per millennium) that temperatures in the early 21st century are already above the Holocene range, and thus use of a base period preceding the rapid warming of the past three decades has merit.

  13. In-vehicle extremity injuries from improvised explosive devices: current and future foci

    PubMed Central

    Ramasamy, Arul; Masouros, Spyros D.; Newell, Nicolas; Hill, Adam M.; Proud, William G.; Brown, Katherine A.; Bull, Anthony M. J.; Clasper, Jon C.

    2011-01-01

    The conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan have been epitomized by the insurgents' use of the improvised explosive device against vehicle-borne security forces. These weapons, capable of causing multiple severely injured casualties in a single incident, pose the most prevalent single threat to Coalition troops operating in the region. Improvements in personal protection and medical care have resulted in increasing numbers of casualties surviving with complex lower limb injuries, often leading to long-term disability. Thus, there exists an urgent requirement to investigate and mitigate against the mechanism of extremity injury caused by these devices. This will necessitate an ontological approach, linking molecular, cellular and tissue interaction to physiological dysfunction. This can only be achieved via a collaborative approach between clinicians, natural scientists and engineers, combining physical and numerical modelling tools with clinical data from the battlefield. In this article, we compile existing knowledge on the effects of explosions on skeletal injury, review and critique relevant experimental and computational research related to lower limb injury and damage and propose research foci required to drive the development of future mitigation technologies. PMID:21149353

  14. The combined and separate impacts of climate extremes on the current and future US rainfed maize and soybean production under elevated CO2.

    PubMed

    Jin, Zhenong; Zhuang, Qianlai; Wang, Jiali; Archontoulis, Sotirios V; Zobel, Zachary; Kotamarthi, Veerabhadra R

    2017-01-07

    Heat and drought are two emerging climatic threats to the US maize and soybean production, yet their impacts on yields are collectively determined by the magnitude of climate change and rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations. This study quantifies the combined and separate impacts of high temperature, heat and drought stresses on the current and future US rainfed maize and soybean production and for the first time characterizes spatial shifts in the relative importance of individual stress. Crop yields are simulated using the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM), driven by high-resolution (12 km) dynamically downscaled climate projections for 1995-2004 and 2085-2094. Results show that maize and soybean yield losses are prominent in the US Midwest by the late 21st century under both Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, and the magnitude of loss highly depends on the current vulnerability and changes in climate extremes. Elevated atmospheric CO2 partially but not completely offsets the yield gaps caused by climate extremes, and the effect is greater in soybean than in maize. Our simulations suggest that drought will continue to be the largest threat to US rainfed maize production under RCP4.5 and soybean production under both RCP scenarios, whereas high temperature and heat stress take over the dominant stress of drought on maize under RCP8.5. We also reveal that shifts in the geographic distributions of dominant stresses are characterized by the increase in concurrent stresses, especially for the US Midwest. These findings imply the importance of considering heat and drought stresses simultaneously for future agronomic adaptation and mitigation strategies, particularly for breeding programs and crop management. The modeling framework of partitioning the total effects of climate change into individual stress impacts can be applied to the study of other crops and agriculture systems.

  15. Future Changes in Rainfall Extremes Associated with El Nino Projected by a Global 20-km Mesh Atmospheric Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kitoh, A.; Endo, H.

    2015-12-01

    El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) will still be the most dominant year-to-year variations of the future tropical climate system. A global high-resolution atmospheric general circulation model with grid size about 20 km is used to project future changes in rainfall extremes associated with El Nino at the end of the 21st century. Four different spatial patterns in sea surface temperature (SST) changes are used as future boundary conditions based on the CMIP5 RCP8.5 scenario. Rainfall extremes such as the maximum 5-day precipitation total (Rx5d) over the western Pacific are positively correlated to the Nino3.4 SST anomalies. It is found that Rx5d regressed to the Nino3.4 SST will increase two times in the future compared to the present value. This implies drastic increase of risk of heavy-rainfall induced disasters under by global warming over the western Pacific countries.

  16. Vulnerability to extreme-heat-associated hospitalization in three counties in Michigan, USA, 2000-2009

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ogbomo, Adesuwa S.; Gronlund, Carina J.; O'Neill, Marie S.; Konen, Tess; Cameron, Lorraine; Wahl, Robert

    2016-10-01

    With climate change, extreme heat (EH) events are increasing, so it is important to understand who is vulnerable to heat-associated morbidity. We determined the association between EH and hospitalizations for all natural causes; cardiovascular, respiratory, and renal diseases; diabetes mellitus; and acute myocardial infarction in Michigan, USA, at different intensities and durations. We assessed confounding by ozone and how individual characteristics and health insurance payer (a proxy for income) modified these associations. We obtained Michigan Inpatient Database, National Climatic Data Center, and US Environmental Protection Agency ozone data for May-September, 2000-2009 for three Michigan counties. We employed a case-crossover design and modeled EH as an indicator for temperature above the 95th, 97th, or 99th percentile thresholds for 1, 2, 3, or 4 days. We examined effect modification by patient age, race, sex, and health insurance payer and pooled the county results. Among non-whites, the pooled odds ratio for hospitalization on EH (97th percentile threshold) vs. non-EH days for renal diseases was 1.37 (95 % CI = 1.13-1.66), which increased with increasing EH intensity, but was null among whites (OR = 1.00, 95 % CI = 0.81, 1.25). We observed a null association between EH and cardiovascular hospitalization. EH (99th percentile threshold) was associated with myocardial infarction hospitalizations. Confounding by ozone was minimal. EH was associated with hospitalizations for renal disease among non-whites. This information on vulnerability to heat-associated morbidity helps characterize the public health burden of EH and target interventions including patient education.

  17. Understanding future projected changes and trends in extreme precipitation and streamflow events in ten Polish catchments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meresa, Hadush; Romanowicz, Renata; Napiorkoski, Jaroslaw

    2016-04-01

    The aim of the study is to investigate methods of trend detection in hydro-climatic high and low indices using novel and conventional tools, for future climate projections in the periods 2021-2050 and 2071-2100. The climate meteorological projections are obtained from regional climate models or/and global circulation models forced with IPCC SRES A1B, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios. The study area includes ten catchments in Poland. The catchments have diverse hydro-climatic conditions. They are covered mostly by forest and are semi-natural. The flood regime of all the catchments is driven either by rainfall and/or snow-melt. Streamflow projections are provided by running the HBV hydrological model, coupled with climate models for the catchments. The trends are analyzed using a conventional Modified Mann Kendall statistical approach, a time frequency approach based on wavelet discrete transform (DWT) and the Dynamic Harmonic Regression (DHR) method. We address the problems of auto-correlation, seasonality and inter-annual variability of the derived indices. A Modified Mann Kendall (MMK) method is applied to cope with the autocorrelation of the time series. The DHR method is based on the unobserved component approach. Together with estimates of the components, the uncertainty of the estimates is also calculated. The results of the DHR analysis (trend) are compared with the calculated MMK and DWT trends. Among other indices we study the temporal patterns of the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardized Runoff Index (SRI) and Standardized Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), as well as Maximum Annual Flows and Minimum Annual Flows. The results indicate that changes in the trends of the projected indices are more conservative when DHR methods are applied than conventional trend techniques. The wavelet-based approach is the most subjective and gives the least conservative trend estimates. Trends indicate an increase in the amount of precipitation, followed by

  18. Future changes in precipitation and impacts on extreme streamflow over Amazonian sub-basins

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guimberteau, M.; Ronchail, J.; Espinoza, J. C.; Lengaigne, M.; Sultan, B.; Polcher, J.; Drapeau, G.; Guyot, J.-L.; Ducharne, A.; Ciais, P.

    2013-03-01

    Because of climate change, much attention is drawn to the Amazon River basin, whose hydrology has already been strongly affected by extreme events during the past 20 years. Hydrological annual extreme variations (i.e. low/high flows) associated with precipitation (and evapotranspiration) changes are investigated over the Amazon River sub-basins using the land surface model ORCHIDEE and a multimodel approach. Climate change scenarios from up to eight AR4 Global Climate Models based on three emission scenarios were used to build future hydrological projections in the region, for two periods of the 21st century. For the middle of the century under the SRESA1B scenario, no change is found in high flow on the main stem of the Amazon River (Óbidos station), but a systematic discharge decrease is simulated during the recession period, leading to a 10% low-flow decrease. Contrasting discharge variations are pointed out depending on the location in the basin. In the western upper part of the basin, which undergoes an annual persistent increase in precipitation, high flow shows a 7% relative increase for the middle of the 21st century and the signal is enhanced for the end of the century (12%). By contrast, simulated precipitation decreases during the dry seasons over the southern, eastern and northern parts of the basin lead to significant low-flow decrease at several stations, especially in the Xingu River, where it reaches -50%, associated with a 9% reduction in the runoff coefficient. A 18% high-flow decrease is also found in this river. In the north, the low-flow decrease becomes higher toward the east: a 55% significant decrease in the eastern Branco River is associated with a 13% reduction in the runoff coefficient. The estimation of the streamflow elasticity to precipitation indicates that southern sub-basins (except for the mountainous Beni River), that have low runoff coefficients, will become more responsive to precipitation change (with a 5 to near 35% increase

  19. Future changes in precipitation and impacts on extreme streamflow over Amazonian sub-basins

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guimberteau, M.; Ronchail, J.; Espinoza, J.; Lengaigne, M.; Sultan, B.; Polcher, J.; Drapeau, G.; Guyot, J.; Ducharne, A.; Ciais, P.

    2013-05-01

    Because of climate change, much attention is drawn on the Amazon River basin whose hydrology has already been strongly affected by extreme events during the past 20 years. Hydrological annual extreme variations (i.e. low/high flows) associated to precipitation (and evapotranspiration) changes are investigated over the Amazon River sub-basins using the land surface model ORCHIDEE and a multi model approach. Climate change scenarios from up to eight AR4 Global Climate Models based on 3 emission scenarios were used to build future hydrological projections in the region, for two periods of the 21st century. For the middle of the century under the SRESA1B scenario, no change is found in high flow on the main stem of the Amazon River (Óbidos station) but a systematic discharge decrease is simulated during the recession period leading to a 10% low-flow decrease. Contrasted discharge variations are pointed out depending on the location in the basin. In the western upper part of the basin which undergoes an annual persistent increase in precipitation, high flow shows a 7% relative increase for the middle of the 21st century and the signal is enhanced for the end of the century (12%). By contrast, simulated precipitation decreases during the dry seasons over the southern, eastern and northern parts of the basin lead to significant low-flow decrease in several stations, especially in the Xingu River where it reaches -50%, associated with a 9% reduction in the runoff coefficient. A 18% high-flow decrease is also found in this river. In the North, the low-flow decrease becomes higher towards the east: a 55% significant decrease in the eastern Branco River is associated with a 13% reduction in the runoff coefficient. The estimation of the streamflow elasticity to precipitation indicates that southern sub-basins (except for the mountainous Beni River) that have low runoff coefficients will become more responsive to precipitation change (with a 5 to near 35% increase in

  20. A Markov chain method to determine the dynamic properties of compound extremes and their near future climate change signal

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sedlmeier, Katrin; Mieruch, Sebastian; Schädler, Gerd

    2014-05-01

    Compound extremes are receiving more and more attention in the scientific world because of their great impact on society. It is therefore of great interest how well state-of-the-art regional climate models can represent the dynamics of multivariate extremes. Furthermore, the near future climate change signal of compound extremes is interesting especially on the regional scale because high resolution information is needed for impact studies and mitigation and adaptation strategies. We use a method based on Markov Chains to assess these two questions. It is based on the representation of multivariate climate anomalies by first order Markov Chains. We partition our dataset into extreme and non-extreme regimes and reduce the multivariate dataset to a univariate time series which can then be described as a discrete stochastic process, a Markov Chain. From the transition matrix several descriptors such as persistence, recurrence time and entropy are derived which characterize the dynamic properties of the multivariate system. By comparing these descriptors for model and observation data, the representation of the dynamics of the climate system by different models is evaluated. Near future shifts or changes of the dynamics of compound extremes are detected by using regional climate projections and comparing the descriptors for different time periods. In order to obtain reliable estimates of a climate change signal, we use an ensemble of simulations to assess the uncertainty which arise in climate projections. Our work is based on an ensemble of high resolution (7 km) regional climate simulations for Central Europe with the COSMO-CLM regional climate model using different global driving data. The time periods considered are a control period (1971-200) and the near future (2021-2050) and running windows within these time periods. For comparison, E-Obs and HYRAS gridded observational datasets are used. The presentation will mainly focus on bivariate temperature and

  1. Potential Impacts of Future Warming and Land Use Changes on Intra-Urban Heat Exposure in Houston, Texas.

    PubMed

    Conlon, Kathryn; Monaghan, Andrew; Hayden, Mary; Wilhelmi, Olga

    2016-01-01

    Extreme heat events in the United States are projected to become more frequent and intense as a result of climate change. We investigated the individual and combined effects of land use and warming on the spatial and temporal distribution of daily minimum temperature (Tmin) and daily maximum heat index (HImax) during summer in Houston, Texas. Present-day (2010) and near-future (2040) parcel-level land use scenarios were embedded within 1-km resolution land surface model (LSM) simulations. For each land use scenario, LSM simulations were conducted for climatic scenarios representative of both the present-day and near-future periods. LSM simulations assuming present-day climate but 2040 land use patterns led to spatially heterogeneous temperature changes characterized by warmer conditions over most areas, with summer average increases of up to 1.5°C (Tmin) and 7.3°C (HImax) in some newly developed suburban areas compared to simulations using 2010 land use patterns. LSM simulations assuming present-day land use but a 1°C temperature increase above the urban canopy (consistent with warming projections for 2040) yielded more spatially homogeneous metropolitan-wide average increases of about 1°C (Tmin) and 2.5°C (HImax), respectively. LSM simulations assuming both land use and warming for 2040 led to summer average increases of up to 2.5°C (Tmin) and 8.3°C (HImax), with the largest increases in areas projected to be converted to residential, industrial and mixed-use types. Our results suggest that urbanization and climate change may significantly increase the average number of summer days that exceed current threshold temperatures for initiating a heat advisory for metropolitan Houston, potentially increasing population exposure to extreme heat.

  2. Potential Impacts of Future Warming and Land Use Changes on Intra-Urban Heat Exposure in Houston, Texas

    PubMed Central

    Conlon, Kathryn; Monaghan, Andrew; Hayden, Mary; Wilhelmi, Olga

    2016-01-01

    Extreme heat events in the United States are projected to become more frequent and intense as a result of climate change. We investigated the individual and combined effects of land use and warming on the spatial and temporal distribution of daily minimum temperature (Tmin) and daily maximum heat index (HImax) during summer in Houston, Texas. Present-day (2010) and near-future (2040) parcel-level land use scenarios were embedded within 1-km resolution land surface model (LSM) simulations. For each land use scenario, LSM simulations were conducted for climatic scenarios representative of both the present-day and near-future periods. LSM simulations assuming present-day climate but 2040 land use patterns led to spatially heterogeneous temperature changes characterized by warmer conditions over most areas, with summer average increases of up to 1.5°C (Tmin) and 7.3°C (HImax) in some newly developed suburban areas compared to simulations using 2010 land use patterns. LSM simulations assuming present-day land use but a 1°C temperature increase above the urban canopy (consistent with warming projections for 2040) yielded more spatially homogeneous metropolitan-wide average increases of about 1°C (Tmin) and 2.5°C (HImax), respectively. LSM simulations assuming both land use and warming for 2040 led to summer average increases of up to 2.5°C (Tmin) and 8.3°C (HImax), with the largest increases in areas projected to be converted to residential, industrial and mixed-use types. Our results suggest that urbanization and climate change may significantly increase the average number of summer days that exceed current threshold temperatures for initiating a heat advisory for metropolitan Houston, potentially increasing population exposure to extreme heat. PMID:26863298

  3. Regional Sea Level Scenarios for Coastal Risk Management: Managing the Uncertainty of Future Sea Level Change and Extreme Water Levels for Department of Defense Coastal Sites Worldwide

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2016-04-01

    SERDP NOAA USACE Ocean MANAGING THE UNCERTAINTY OF FUTURE SEA LEVEL CHANGE AND EXTREME WATER LEVELS FOR DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE COASTAL SITES...Uncertainty of Future Sea Level Change and Extreme Water Levels for Department of Defense Coastal Sites Worldwide. U.S. Department of Defense...Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program. 224 pp. MANAGING THE UNCERTAINTY OF FUTURE SEA LEVEL CHANGE AND EXTREME WATER LEVELS FOR

  4. Effect of temperature shock and inventory surprises on natural gas and heating oil futures returns.

    PubMed

    Hu, John Wei-Shan; Hu, Yi-Chung; Lin, Chien-Yu

    2014-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to examine the impact of temperature shock on both near-month and far-month natural gas and heating oil futures returns by extending the weather and storage models of the previous study. Several notable findings from the empirical studies are presented. First, the expected temperature shock significantly and positively affects both the near-month and far-month natural gas and heating oil futures returns. Next, significant temperature shock has effect on both the conditional mean and volatility of natural gas and heating oil prices. The results indicate that expected inventory surprises significantly and negatively affects the far-month natural gas futures returns. Moreover, volatility of natural gas futures returns is higher on Thursdays and that of near-month heating oil futures returns is higher on Wednesdays than other days. Finally, it is found that storage announcement for natural gas significantly affects near-month and far-month natural gas futures returns. Furthermore, both natural gas and heating oil futures returns are affected more by the weighted average temperature reported by multiple weather reporting stations than that reported by a single weather reporting station.

  5. Impacts of the Future Changes in Extreme Events on the Regional Crop Yield in Turkey

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    An, Nazan; Turp, M. Tufan; Ozturk, Tugba; Kurnaz, M. Levent

    2016-04-01

    The changes in extreme events caused by climate change have the greatest impact on agricultural sector specifically crop yield. Therefore, it requires a clear understanding of how extreme events affect the crop yield and how it causes high economic losses. In this research, we cover the relationship between extreme events and the crop yield in Turkey for the period of 2020 - 2045 with respect to 1980 - 2005. We focus on the role of those extreme event causing natural disasters on the regional crop yield. This research comprises 2 parts. In the first part, the projection is performed according to the business as usual scenario of IPCC, RCP8.5, via the RegCM4.4 in order to obtain extreme event indices required for the crop assessment. In the second part, the crop yield and the extreme event indices are combined by applying the econometric analysis in order to see the relationship between natural disasters and crop yield. The risks for crop yield caused by the extreme events are estimated and interpreted. This study aims to assess the effect of frequency of expected extreme events on the crop yield at the cropland of Turkey. This research has been supported by Boǧaziçi University Research Fund Grant Number 10421.

  6. A non-equilibrium model for soil heating and moisture transport during extreme surface heating: the soil (heat-moisture-vapor) HMV-Model Version 1

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Massman, W. J.

    2015-11-01

    Increased use of prescribed fire by land managers and the increasing likelihood of wildfires due to climate change require an improved modeling capability of extreme heating of soils during fires. This issue is addressed here by developing and testing the soil (heat-moisture-vapor) HMV-model, a 1-D (one-dimensional) non-equilibrium (liquid-vapor phase change) model of soil evaporation that simulates the coupled simultaneous transport of heat, soil moisture, and water vapor. This model is intended for use with surface forcing ranging from daily solar cycles to extreme conditions encountered during fires. It employs a linearized Crank-Nicolson scheme for the conservation equations of energy and mass and its performance is evaluated against dynamic soil temperature and moisture observations, which were obtained during laboratory experiments on soil samples exposed to surface heat fluxes ranging between 10 000 and 50 000 W m-2. The Hertz-Knudsen equation is the basis for constructing the model's non-equilibrium evaporative source term. Some unusual aspects of the model that were found to be extremely important to the model's performance include (1) a dynamic (temperature and moisture potential dependent) condensation coefficient associated with the evaporative source term, (2) an infrared radiation component to the soil's thermal conductivity, and (3) a dynamic residual soil moisture. This last term, which is parameterized as a function of temperature and soil water potential, is incorporated into the water retention curve and hydraulic conductivity functions in order to improve the model's ability to capture the evaporative dynamics of the strongly bound soil moisture, which requires temperatures well beyond 150 °C to fully evaporate. The model also includes film flow, although this phenomenon did not contribute much to the model's overall performance. In general, the model simulates the laboratory-observed temperature dynamics quite well, but is less precise (but

  7. Life cycle cost assessment of future low heat rejection engines

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Petersen, D. R.

    1986-01-01

    The Adiabatic Diesel Engine Component Development (ADECD) represents a project which has the objective to accelerate the development of highway truck engines with advanced technology aimed at reduced fuel consumption. The project comprises three steps, including the synthesis of a number of engine candidate designs, the coupling of each with a number of systems for utilizing exhaust gas energy, and the evaluation of each combination in terms of desirability. Particular attention is given to the employed evaluation method and the development of this method. The objective of Life Cycle Cost (LCC) evaluation in the ADECD program was to select the best from among 42 different low heat rejection engine (LHRE)/exhaust energy recovery system configurations. The LCC model is discussed along with a maintenance cost model, the evaluation strategy, the selection of parameter ranges, and a full factorial analysis.

  8. Responding to the Effects of Extreme Heat: Baltimore City's Code Red Program.

    PubMed

    Martin, Jennifer L

    2016-01-01

    Heat response plans are becoming increasingly more common as US cities prepare for heat waves and other effects of climate change. Standard elements of heat response plans exist, but plans vary depending on geographic location and distribution of vulnerable populations. Because heat events vary over time and affect populations differently based on vulnerability, it is difficult to compare heat response plans and evaluate responses to heat events. This article provides an overview of the Baltimore City heat response plan, the Code Red program, and discusses the city's response to the 2012 Ohio Valley/Mid Atlantic Derecho, a complex heat event. Challenges with and strategies for evaluating the program are reviewed and shared.

  9. Future extreme water levels and floodplains in Gironde Estuary considering climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Laborie, V.; Hissel, F.; Sergent, P.

    2012-04-01

    Within THESEUS European project, an overflowing model of Gironde Estuary has been used to evaluate future surge levels at Le Verdon and future water levels at 6 specific sites of the estuary : le Verdon, Richard, Laména, Pauillac, Le Marquis and Bordeaux. It was then used to study the evolution of floodplains' location and areas towards 2100 in the entire Estuary. In this study, no breaching and no modification in the elevation of the dike was considered. The model was fed by several data sources : wind fields at Royan and Mérignac interpolated from the grid of the European Climatolologic Model CLM/SGA, a tide signal at Le Verdon, the discharges of Garonne (at La Réole), the Dordogne (at Pessac) and Isle (at Libourne). A simplified mathematical model of surge levels has been adjusted at Le Verdon with 10 surge storms and by using wind and pressure fields given by CLM/SGA. This adjustment was led so that the statistical analysis of the global signal at Le Verdon gives the same quantiles as the same analysis driven on maregraphic observations for the period [1960 ; 2000]. The assumption used for sea level rise was the pessimistic one of the French national institute for climate change: 60 cm in 2100. The model was then used to study the evolution of extreme water levels towards 2100. The analysis of surge levels at Le Verdon shows a decrease in quantiles which is coherent with the analysis of climatologic fields. The analysis of water levels shows that the increase in mean water levels quantiles represents only a part of sea level rise in Gironde Estuary. Moreover this effect seems to decrease from the maritime limit of the model towards upstream. Concerning floodplains, those corresponding to return periods from 2 to 100 years for present conditions and 3 slices [2010; 2039], [2040; 2069] and [2070; 2099] have been mapped for 3 areas in Gironde Estuary : around Le Verdon, at the confluence between Garonne and Dordogne, and near Bordeaux. Concerning the evolution

  10. Simulation of extreme rainfall event of November 2009 over Jeddah, Saudi Arabia: the explicit role of topography and surface heating

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Almazroui, Mansour; Raju, P. V. S.; Yusef, A.; Hussein, M. A. A.; Omar, M.

    2017-02-01

    In this paper, a nonhydrostatic Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model has been used to simulate the extreme precipitation event of 25 November 2009, over Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. The model is integrated in three nested (27, 9, and 3 km) domains with the initial and boundary forcing derived from the NCEP reanalysis datasets. As a control experiment, the model integrated for 48 h initiated at 0000 UTC on 24 November 2009. The simulated rainfall in the control experiment depicts in well agreement with Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission rainfall estimates in terms of intensity as well as spatio-temporal distribution. Results indicate that a strong low-level (850 hPa) wind over Jeddah and surrounding regions enhanced the moisture and temperature gradient and created a conditionally unstable atmosphere that favored the development of the mesoscale system. The influences of topography and heat exchange process in the atmosphere were investigated on the development of extreme precipitation event; two sensitivity experiments are carried out: one without topography and another without exchange of surface heating to the atmosphere. The results depict that both surface heating and topography played crucial role in determining the spatial distribution and intensity of the extreme rainfall over Jeddah. The topography favored enhanced uplift motion that further strengthened the low-level jet and hence the rainfall over Jeddah and adjacent areas. On the other hand, the absence of surface heating considerably reduced the simulated rainfall by 30% as compared to the observations.

  11. Projecting future climate change effects on the extreme hydrological drought events in the Weihe River basin, China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yuan, F.; San, Y. Y.; Li, Y.; Ma, M.; Ren, L.; Zhao, C.; Liu, Y.; Yang, X.; Jiang, S.; Shen, H.

    2015-06-01

    In this study, a framework to project the potential future climate change impacts on extreme hydrological drought events in the Weihe River basin in North China is presented. This framework includes a large-scale hydrological model driven by climate outputs from a regional climate model for historical streamflow simulations and future streamflow projections, and models for univariate drought assessment and copula-based bivariate drought analysis. It is projected by the univariate drought analysis that future climate change would lead to increased frequencies of extreme hydrological drought events with higher severity. The bivariate drought assessment using copula shows that future droughts in the same return periods as historical droughts would be potentially longer and more severe, in terms of drought duration and severity. This trend would deteriorate the hydrological drought situation in the Weihe River basin. In addition, the uncertainties associated with climate models, hydrological models, and univariate and bivariate drought analysis should be quantified in the future research to improve the reliability of this study.

  12. Enhancing Extreme Heat Health-Related Intervention and Preparedness Activities Using Remote Sensing Analysis of Daily Surface Temperature, Surface Observation Networks and Ecmwf Reanalysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Garcia, R. L.; Booth, J.; Hondula, D.; Ross, K. W.; Stuyvesant, A.; Alm, G.; Baghel, E.

    2015-12-01

    Extreme heat causes more human fatalities in the United States than any other natural disaster, elevating the concern of heat-related mortality. Maricopa County Arizona is known for its high heat index and its sprawling metropolitan complex which makes this region a perfect candidate for human health research. Individuals at higher risk are unequally spatially distributed, leaving the poor, homeless, non-native English speakers, elderly, and the socially isolated vulnerable to heat events. The Arizona Department of Health Services, Arizona State University and NASA DEVELOP LaRC are working to establish a more effective method of placing hydration and cooling centers in addition to enhancing the heat warning system to aid those with the highest exposure. Using NASA's Earth Observation Systems from Aqua and Terra satellites, the daily spatial variability within the UHI was quantified over the summer heat seasons from 2005 - 2014, effectively establishing a remotely sensed surface temperature climatology for the county. A series of One-way Analysis of Variance revealed significant differences between daily surface temperature averages of the top 30% of census tracts within the study period. Furthermore, synoptic upper tropospheric circulation patterns were classified to relate surface weather types and heat index. The surface weather observation networks were also reviewed for analyzing the veracity of the other methods. The results provide detailed information regarding nuances within the UHI effect and will allow pertinent recommendations regarding the health department's adaptive capacity. They also hold essential components for future policy decision-making regarding appropriate locations for cooling centers and efficient warning systems.

  13. Heat supply from municipal solid waste incineration plants in Japan: Current situation and future challenges.

    PubMed

    Tabata, Tomohiro; Tsai, Peii

    2016-02-01

    The use of waste-to-energy technology as part of a municipal solid waste management strategy could reduce the use of fossil fuels and contribute to prevention of global warming. In this study, we examined current heat and electricity production by incineration plants in Japan for external use. Herein, we discuss specific challenges to the promotion of heat utilisation and future municipal solid waste management strategies. We conducted a questionnaire survey to determine the actual conditions of heat production by incineration plants. From the survey results, information of about 498 incineration plants was extracted. When we investigated the relationship between heat production for external use and population density where incineration plants were located, we found that regions with a population density <1000 persons (km(2))(-1) produce <500 MJ t(-1) of heat. We also found that external use of such energy for factories, markets, and related use, was noted in cities with a population density of 2000 to 4000 persons (km(2))(-1). Several incineration plants have poor performance for heat production because there are few facilities near them to provide demand for the energy. This is the result of redundant capacity, and is reflected in the heat production performance. Given these results, we discussed future challenges to creating energy demand around incineration plants where there is presently none. We also examined the challenges involved in increasing heat supply beyond the present situation.

  14. Human-biometeorological assessment of increasing summertime extreme heat events in Shanghai, China during 1973-2015

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kong, Qinqin; Ge, Quansheng; Xi, Jianchao; Zheng, Jingyun

    2016-09-01

    Summertime extreme heat events, defined by the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI), have shown increasing trends in Shanghai from 1973 to 2015. There is a clear shift to higher temperatures for the daily maximum UTCI values, and the number of days with daily maximum UTCI exceeding 38 °C significantly increased by 4.34 days/10a. An upward trend of 3.67 days/10a was detected for the number of hot days which also displays an abrupt increase around 1998. Both the frequency and total duration of heat waves have significantly increased by 0.77 times/10a and 3.51 days/10a respectively. Their inter-decadal variations indicate a three-part division of the study period showing more and more heat waves and longer total duration, which are 1.0 times/a and 4.13 days/a for 1973-1987, 1.71 times/a and 7.64 days/a for 1988-2001, and 3.57 times/a and 16.0 days/a for 2002-2015. In addition to that are more occurrences of long-lasting heat waves. Compared with the UTCI, air temperature-based definitions have indicated substantially higher increases in extreme heat events, especially for hot nights. The relatively low humidity and strong wind speeds in the twenty-first century are considered to be responsible for this difference. Our study provides a more in-depth case to monitor extreme heat events under the combining effects of air temperature, humidity, wind speeds, total cloud cover, etc. and can support studies over other regions.

  15. The effect of future reduction in aerosol emissions on climate extremes in China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Zhili; Lin, Lei; Yang, Meilin; Xu, Yangyang

    2016-11-01

    This study investigates the effect of reduced aerosol emissions on projected temperature and precipitation extremes in China during 2031-2050 and 2081-2100 relative to present-day conditions using the daily data output from the Community Earth System Model ensemble simulations under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 with an applied aerosol reduction and RCP8.5 with fixed 2005 aerosol emissions (RCP8.5_FixA) scenarios. The reduced aerosol emissions of RCP8.5 magnify the warming effect due to greenhouse gases (GHG) and lead to significant increases in temperature extremes, such as the maximum of daily maximum temperature (TXx), minimum of daily minimum temperature (TNn), and tropical nights (TR), and precipitation extremes, such as the maximum 5-day precipitation amount, number of heavy precipitation days, and annual total precipitation from days ˃95th percentile, in China. The projected TXx, TNn, and TR averaged over China increase by 1.2 ± 0.2 °C (4.4 ± 0.2 °C), 1.3 ± 0.2 °C (4.8 ± 0.2 °C), and 8.2 ± 1.2 (30.9 ± 1.4) days, respectively, during 2031-2050 (2081-2100) under the RCP8.5_FixA scenario, whereas the corresponding values are 1.6 ± 0.1 °C (5.3 ± 0.2 °C), 1.8 ± 0.2 °C (5.6 ± 0.2 °C), and 11.9 ± 0.9 (38.4 ± 1.0) days under the RCP8.5 scenario. Nationally averaged increases in all of those extreme precipitation indices above due to the aerosol reduction account for more than 30 % of the extreme precipitation increases under the RCP8.5 scenario. Moreover, the aerosol reduction leads to decreases in frost days and consecutive dry days averaged over China. There are great regional differences in changes of climate extremes caused by the aerosol reduction. When normalized by global mean surface temperature changes, aerosols have larger effects on temperature and precipitation extremes over China than GHG.

  16. Liquid jet impingement cooling with diamond substrates for extremely high heat flux applications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lienhard V, John H.; Khounsary, Ali M.

    1993-11-01

    This paper considers the potential of jet/diamond systems for removing localized high heat fluxes. Diamond substrates are compared to other candidate materials. Limits on usable thermal resistances and heat transfer rates are estimated.

  17. Projecting Future Heat-Related Mortality under Climate Change Scenarios: A Systematic Review

    PubMed Central

    Barnett, Adrian Gerard; Wang, Xiaoming; Vaneckova, Pavla; FitzGerald, Gerard; Tong, Shilu

    2011-01-01

    Background: Heat-related mortality is a matter of great public health concern, especially in the light of climate change. Although many studies have found associations between high temperatures and mortality, more research is needed to project the future impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality. Objectives: We conducted a systematic review of research and methods for projecting future heat-related mortality under climate change scenarios. Data sources and extraction: A literature search was conducted in August 2010, using the electronic databases PubMed, Scopus, ScienceDirect, ProQuest, and Web of Science. The search was limited to peer-reviewed journal articles published in English from January 1980 through July 2010. Data synthesis: Fourteen studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Most projections showed that climate change would result in a substantial increase in heat-related mortality. Projecting heat-related mortality requires understanding historical temperature–mortality relationships and considering the future changes in climate, population, and acclimatization. Further research is needed to provide a stronger theoretical framework for projections, including a better understanding of socioeconomic development, adaptation strategies, land-use patterns, air pollution, and mortality displacement. Conclusions: Scenario-based projection research will meaningfully contribute to assessing and managing the potential impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality. PMID:21816703

  18. Double Exposure and the Climate Gap: Changing demographics and extreme heat in Ciudad Juárez, Mexico

    PubMed Central

    Collins, Timothy W.; McDonald, Yolanda J.; Aldouri, Raed; Aboargob, Faraj; Eldeb, Abdelatif; Aguilar, María de Lourdes Romo; Velázquez-Angulo, Juárez Gilberto

    2013-01-01

    Scholars have recognized a climate gap, wherein poor communities face disproportionate impacts of climate change. Others have noted that climate change and economic globalization may mutually affect a region or social group, leading to double exposure. This paper investigates how current and changing patterns of neighborhood demographics are associated with extreme heat in the border city of Juárez, Mexico. Many Juárez neighborhoods are at-risk to triple exposures, in which residents suffer due to the conjoined effects of the global recession, drug war violence, and extreme heat. Due to impacts of the recession on maquiladora employment and the explosion of drug violence (since 2008), over 75% of neighborhoods experienced decreasing population density between 2000 and 2010 and the average neighborhood saw a 40% increase in the proportion of older adults. Neighborhoods with greater drops in population density and increases in the proportion of older residents over the decade are at significantly higher risk to extreme heat, as are neighborhoods with lower population density and lower levels of education. In this context, triple exposures are associated with a climate gap that most endangers lower socioeconomic status and increasingly older aged populations remaining in neighborhoods from which high proportions of residents have departed. PMID:25642135

  19. Double Exposure and the Climate Gap: Changing demographics and extreme heat in Ciudad Juárez, Mexico.

    PubMed

    Grineski, Sara E; Collins, Timothy W; McDonald, Yolanda J; Aldouri, Raed; Aboargob, Faraj; Eldeb, Abdelatif; Aguilar, María de Lourdes Romo; Velázquez-Angulo, Juárez Gilberto

    2015-02-01

    Scholars have recognized a climate gap, wherein poor communities face disproportionate impacts of climate change. Others have noted that climate change and economic globalization may mutually affect a region or social group, leading to double exposure. This paper investigates how current and changing patterns of neighborhood demographics are associated with extreme heat in the border city of Juárez, Mexico. Many Juárez neighborhoods are at-risk to triple exposures, in which residents suffer due to the conjoined effects of the global recession, drug war violence, and extreme heat. Due to impacts of the recession on maquiladora employment and the explosion of drug violence (since 2008), over 75% of neighborhoods experienced decreasing population density between 2000 and 2010 and the average neighborhood saw a 40% increase in the proportion of older adults. Neighborhoods with greater drops in population density and increases in the proportion of older residents over the decade are at significantly higher risk to extreme heat, as are neighborhoods with lower population density and lower levels of education. In this context, triple exposures are associated with a climate gap that most endangers lower socioeconomic status and increasingly older aged populations remaining in neighborhoods from which high proportions of residents have departed.

  20. Extreme Heat Wave over European Russia in Summer 2010: Anomaly or a Manifestation of Climatic Trend?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Razuvaev, V.; Groisman, P. Y.; Bulygina, O.; Borzenkova, I.

    2010-12-01

    Extraordinary temperature anomalies over European Russia (ER) in summer 2010 raised a legitimate question in the title of this presentation. A 60-days-long hot anticyclonic weather system with daily temperature anomalies as high as +10K and no or negligible amount of rainfall first decimated crops in the forest-steppe zone of ER, gradually dried wetlands in the forest zone and, finally, caused numerous natural and anthropogenic fires that at the time of this abstract preparation have not yet been extinguished. The extreme heat, lack of precipitation, and forest fires have caused hundreds of deaths and multimillion dollars in property losses. Indirect losses of lives due to this weather anomaly, with the ensuing fires and related air pollution, as well as the absence of air conditioning in apartments has yet to be estimated. The center of European Russia was well covered by meteorological observations for the past 130 years. These data, historical weather records (yearbooks or "letopisi" , which were carried on in the major Russian monasteries), and finally, dendroclimatological information, all show that this summer temperature anomaly was well above all known extremes in the past 1000 years. Like ocean waves and ocean tides, weather and climate variability go together strengthening (or mitigating) each other. We shall show the precursors of the current outbreak using principally the most accurate meteorological records of the past century updated to 2009 (at the Session, the 2010 data will also be presented). While a careful analyses of these records and thoughtful analyses of recent similar temperature outbreaks in Western Europe could not prevent the occurrence of this disaster, the lessons learned from these analyses (a) would warn about its increasing probability and (b) mitigation and adaptation measures could well be made to reduce its negative consequences. Among our arguments are: (1)There is a century-long tendency of reduction of equator minus pole

  1. Performance and heat transfer characteristics of the laser-heated rocket - A future space transportation system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shoji, J. M.; Larson, V. R.

    1976-01-01

    The application of advanced liquid-bipropellant rocket engine analysis techniques has been utilized for prediction of the potential delivered performance and the design of thruster wall cooling schemes for laser-heated rocket thrusters. Delivered specific impulse values greater than 1000 lbf-sec/lbm are potentially achievable based on calculations for thrusters designed for 10-kW and 5000-kW laser beam power levels. A thruster wall-cooling technique utilizing a combination of regenerative cooling and a carbon-seeded hydrogen boundary layer is presented. The flowing carbon-seeded hydrogen boundary layer provides radiation absorption of the heat radiated from the high-temperature plasma. Also described is a forced convection thruster wall cooling design for an experimental test thruster.

  2. Back to the Future -Precipitation Extremes, Climate Variability, Environmental Planning and Adaptation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barros, A. P.

    2008-12-01

    --"The last major climatic oscillation peak was about 1856, or 74 years ago. Practically all of our important railroad and public highway work has been done since that time. Most of our parks systems driveways, and roads of all type for auto travel, in the various States, have been completed within the past 30 years, namely, beginning at the very lowest point of our climatic swing (1900-1910). There is every reason to believe, therefore, as the next 20 years comes on apace, we will witness considerable damage to work done during the past regime of weather."-- Schuman, 1931 At the beginning of the 21st century, as at the beginning of the 20th century, the fundamental question is whether the nation is more prepared for natural disasters today than it was eight decades ago. Indeed, the question is whether the best science, engineering and policy tools are in place to prepare for and respond to extreme events. Changes in the risk and magnitude of extreme precipitation events rank among the most studied impacts, and indicators (symptoms) of climatic variations. Extreme precipitation translates generally into extreme flooding, landslides, collapse of lifeline infrastructure, and the breakdown of public health services among others. In approaching the problem of quantifying the risk and magnitude of extreme precipitation events, there are two major challenges: 1) it is difficult to characterize "observed" (20th century) conditions due to the lack of long-term observations - i.e., short and incomplete historical records; and 2) it is difficult to characterize "predicted" (21st century) conditions due to the lack of skill of precipitation forecasts at spatial and temporal scales meaningful for impact studies, and the short-duration of climate model simulations themselves. The first challenge translates in estimating the probability of occurrence (rare) and magnitude (very large) of events that may have not happened yet. The second challenge is that of quantifying

  3. Excessive occupational heat exposure: a significant ergonomic challenge and health risk for current and future workers

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Occupational heat exposure threatens the health of a worker not only when heat illness occurs but also when a worker’s performance and work capacity is impaired. Occupational contexts that involve hot and humid climatic conditions, heavy physical workloads and/or protective clothing create a strenuous and potentially dangerous thermal load for a worker. There are recognized heat prevention strategies and international thermal ergonomic standards to protect the worker. However, such standards have been developed largely in temperate western settings, and their validity and relevance is questionable for some geographical, cultural and socioeconomic contexts where the risk of excessive heat exposure can be high. There is evidence from low- and middle-income tropical countries that excessive heat exposure remains a significant issue for occupational health. Workers in these countries are likely to be at high risk of excessive heat exposure as they are densely populated, have large informal work sectors and are expected to experience substantial increases in temperature due to global climate change. The aim of this paper is to discuss current and future ergonomic risks associated with working in the heat as well as potential methods for maintaining the health and productivity of workers, particularly those most vulnerable to excessive heat exposure. PMID:25057350

  4. Historical Review of Electric Household Appliances using Induction-Heating and Future Challenging Trends

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hirota, Izuo; Yamashita, Hidekazu; Omori, Hideki; Nakaoka, Mutsuo

    This paper presents historical progress on technology evolution of the electric and electronic household appliances using the inverter, especially for Induction-Heating applications, which have been put in practical use as the desk-top cooker for the first time at home in 1974 until being applied to the rice cooker and the multi-burner cooking heater. It also describes the future innovative evolution of the power semiconductor switching devices and the inverter circuit topologies supporting its progressive developments. Looking back its progress, the future trends on consumer power electronics is discussed on the practical problem in the future.

  5. Charging studies of heat packs using parabolic dish solar energy concentrator for extreme conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kumar, Rohitash; Vyas, Sumita; Kumar, Ravindra; Dixit, Ambesh

    2016-05-01

    Parabolic dish solar energy concentrator with aperture diameter 1.4 m and focal length 0.32 m is designed and fabricated to charge and store solar thermal energy in phase change material (PCM) based heat packs. Overall heat loss factor, heat duty, over all thermal efficiency, and optical efficiency factor are calculated using water sensible heating and cooling tests and values are 16.11 W m-2 K-1, 546.9 W, 49.2% and 0.62 respectively. The performance characteristic curve is generated using these parameters to understand its performance at different ambient temperatures and solar insolation. The fabricated concentrator has been used to charge 16 PCM heat packs with 150 g PCM in each heat pack, which took about 35 minutes for complete charging of PCM heat packs at average ambient temperature 39 °C and solar radiation flux density 715 W m-2 K-1. The charged heat packs are subjected to discharge studies at average ambient temperature about - 7 °C and observed heat release in the temperature range of 48 to 40 °C for 50 minutes, suggesting its applications for comfort and therapeutic applications in high altitude areas.

  6. Heat flow and temperature-depth curves throughout Alaska: finding regions for future geothermal exploration

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Batir, Joseph F.; Blackwell, David D.; Richards, Maria C.

    2016-06-01

    The objective of this research is to contribute to the understanding of the thermal regime of Alaska and its relationship to geology, regional tectonics, and to suggest potential sites for future geothermal energy production. New heat flow data were collected and are combined with existing published and unpublished data, although large sections of Alaska still lack data. Fault traces were implemented into the heat flow contouring as an additional gridding constraint, to incorporate both heat flow measurements and geology. New heat flow data supported the use of geologic trends in the heat flow mapping procedure, and a heat flow map of Alaska was produced with this added constraint. The multi-input contouring strategy allows production of a map with a regional interpretation of heat flow, in addition to site-specific heat flow and thermal model interpretations in areas with sufficient data density. Utilizing the new heat flow map, temperature-at-depth curves were created for example areas. Temperature-at-depth curves are calculated to 10 km depth for the areas of Anchorage, Fairbanks, Juneau, the Alaska Peninsula, Bristol Bay, and the Copper River Basin. The temperatures-at-depth predicted near the population centers of Anchorage and Juneau are relatively low, limiting the geothermal resource potential. The Fairbanks area temperature estimates are near conventional power production temperatures (150 °C) between 3.5 and 4 km. All data areas, except at Juneau, have temperatures sufficient for low temperature geothermal applications (40 °C) by 2 km. A high heat flow region exists within the Aleutian Volcanic Arc, although new data show heat flow variations from 59 to 120 mW m-2, so individual geothermal resources within the arc will be irregularly located.

  7. The paleoclimate context and future trajectory of extreme summer hydroclimate in eastern Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cook, Benjamin I.; Palmer, Jonathan G.; Cook, Edward R.; Turney, Chris S. M.; Allen, Kathryn; Fenwick, Pavla; O'Donnell, Alison; Lough, Janice M.; Grierson, Pauline F.; Ho, Michelle; Baker, Patrick J.

    2016-11-01

    Eastern Australia recently experienced an intense drought (Millennium Drought, 2003-2009) and record-breaking rainfall and flooding (austral summer 2010-2011). There is some limited evidence for a climate change contribution to these events, but such analyses are hampered by the paucity of information on long-term natural variability. Analyzing a new reconstruction of summer (December-January-February) Palmer Drought Severity Index (the Australia-New Zealand Drought Atlas; ANZDA, 1500-2012 Common Era), we find moisture deficits during the Millennium Drought fall within the range of the last 500 years of natural hydroclimate variability. This variability includes periods of multidecadal drought in the 1500s more persistent than any event in the historical record. However, the severity of the Millennium Drought, which was caused by autumn (March-April-May) precipitation declines, may be underestimated in the ANZDA because the reconstruction is biased toward summer and antecedent spring (September-October-November) precipitation. The pluvial in 2011, however, which was characterized by extreme summer rainfall faithfully captured by the ANZDA, is likely the wettest year in the reconstruction for Coastal Queensland. Climate projections (Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5 scenario) suggest that eastern Australia will experience long-term drying during the 21st century. While the contribution of anthropogenic forcing to recent extremes remains an open question, these projections indicate an amplified risk of multiyear drought anomalies matching or exceeding the intensity of the Millennium Drought.

  8. SAXO, the SPHERE extreme AO system: on-sky final performance and future improvements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fusco, T.; Sauvage, J.-F.; Mouillet, D.; Costille, A.; Petit, C.; Beuzit, J.-L.; Dohlen, K.; Milli, J.; Girard, J.; Kasper, M.; Vigan, A.; Suarez, M.; Soenke, C.; Downing, M.; N'Diaye, M.; Baudoz, P.; Sevin, A.; Baruffolo, A.; Schmid, H.-M.; Salasnich, B.; Hugot, E.; Hubin, N.

    2016-07-01

    The SPHERE (Spectro-Polarimetric High-contrast Exoplanet Research) instrument aims at detecting extremely faint sources (giant extrasolar planets) in the vicinity of bright stars1. Such a challenging goal requires the use of a very-high-order performance Adaptive Optics [AO] system feeding the scientific instruments with a quasi-perfect flat wave front corrected from all the atmospheric turbulence and internal defects. This AO system, called SAXO (Sphere Ao for eXoplanet Observation) is the heart of the instrument, a heart beating 1200 time per second and providing unprecedented image quality for a large ground based telescope at optical/near infrared wavelength. We will present the latest results obtained on-sky, demonstrating its exceptional performance (in terms of correction quality, stability and robustness) and tremendous potentiality for high contrast imaging and more specifically for exoplanet discovery.

  9. How extreme are extremes?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cucchi, Marco; Petitta, Marcello; Calmanti, Sandro

    2016-04-01

    High temperatures have an impact on the energy balance of any living organism and on the operational capabilities of critical infrastructures. Heat-wave indicators have been mainly developed with the aim of capturing the potential impacts on specific sectors (agriculture, health, wildfires, transport, power generation and distribution). However, the ability to capture the occurrence of extreme temperature events is an essential property of a multi-hazard extreme climate indicator. Aim of this study is to develop a standardized heat-wave indicator, that can be combined with other indices in order to describe multiple hazards in a single indicator. The proposed approach can be used in order to have a quantified indicator of the strenght of a certain extreme. As a matter of fact, extremes are usually distributed in exponential or exponential-exponential functions and it is difficult to quickly asses how strong was an extreme events considering only its magnitude. The proposed approach simplify the quantitative and qualitative communication of extreme magnitude

  10. Extremely low-frequency magnetic fields can impair spermatogenesis recovery after reversible testicular damage induced by heat.

    PubMed

    Tenorio, Bruno Mendes; Ferreira Filho, Moisés Bonifacio Alves; Jimenez, George Chaves; de Morais, Rosana Nogueira; Peixoto, Christina Alves; Nogueira, Romildo de Albuquerque; da Silva Junior, Valdemiro Amaro

    2014-06-01

    Male infertility is often related to reproductive age couples experiencing fertility-related issues. Men may have fertility problems associated with reversible testicular damage. Considering that men have been increasingly exposed to extremely low-frequency magnetic fields generated by the production, distribution and use of electricity, this study analyzed whether 60 Hz and 1 mT magnetic field exposure may impair spermatogenesis recovery after reversible testicular damage induced by heat shock using rats as an experimental model. Adult male rats were subjected to a single testicular heat shock (HS, 43 °C for 12 min) and then exposed to the magnetic field for 15, 30 and 60 d after HS. Magnetic field exposure during the spermatogenesis recovery induced changes in testis components volume, cell ultrastructure and histomorphometrical parameters. Control animals had a reestablished and active spermatogenesis at 60 d after heat shock, while animals exposed to magnetic field still showed extensive testicular degeneration. Magnetic field exposure did not change the plasma testosterone. In conclusion, extremely low-frequency magnetic field may be harmful to fertility recovery in males affected by reversible testicular damage.

  11. Possible Impact of climate change on future extreme precipitation of the Oldman, Bow and Red Deer River Basins of Alberta

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yew Gan, Thian; Gizaw, Mesgana

    2016-04-01

    The impact of climate change on extreme precipitation events in the Oldman (ORB), Bow, (BRB) and Red Deer (RRB) River Basins of southern Alberta, Canada, was assessed using six extreme climate indices for the rainy period of May-August (MJJA), and 9-km resolution Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2 and A1B climate scenarios of four Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) Global Climate Models (GCMs) dynamically downscaled by a regional climate model, MM5. R95p of the three study sites showed an increase of 4% for the 2050s (2041-2070) and 10% for the 2080s (2071-2100) period, whereas R99p increased by 39% (2050s) and 42% (2080s) which suggest a projected increase in the volume of precipitation expected in future very wet and particularly extremely wet days. Similarly, R20mm, P30yr, RX1day and RX5day are also projected to increase by about 15% by the mid- and late 21st century in the three study sites. However, compared to BRB and RRB, ORB located in the southernmost part of the study site is projected to undergo a relatively higher increase in both temperature and precipitation intensity, which is assessed in terms of indices such as P30yr, RX1day and RX5day. On the other hand, RRB and BRB are projected to experience higher increase in R20mm, which suggest a relatively higher increase in the number of very heavy precipitation days projected for these two basins. Overall, these results suggest that in the 2050s and 2080s, southern Alberta will be expected to experience more frequent and severe intensive storm events in the MJJA season that could potentially increase the risk of future flooding in this region. Ref: Gizaw, M., and Gan, T. Y., 2015, Possible Impact of climate change on future extreme precipitation of the Oldman, Bow and Red Deer River Basins of Alberta, Int. Journal Climatology, DOI:10.1002/joc.4338

  12. Comparison of heat stress metrics with modern, future, and past greenhouse climates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Buzan, J.; Goldner, A.; Huber, M.

    2012-04-01

    Heat stress is a function of temperature and humidity, and is subject to the covariance of the two quantities. One of the robust predictions from climate change is an increase in temperatures across the planet, and therefore heat stress is projected to increase. It has been proposed that in future climate, significant portions of the land surface become subject to life threatening heat stress levels to humans and mammals. We will use past greenhouse worlds and future contexts to show the evolution of these parameters in a suite of greenhouse climates. We map the correlation between relative humidity and heat stress metrics, such as the indoor Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT), utilizing the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Earth System Model (CESM). These metrics will be explored using a variety of different boundary conditions: pCO2 levels at 280, 560, 1120, 2240, and 4480 in conjunction with appropriate modern, Eocene, and Miocene continental configurations. Results will be used for an intercomparison with previous work on heat stress.

  13. Measurements of electron and proton heating temperatures from extreme-ultraviolet light images at 68 eV in petawatt laser experiments

    SciTech Connect

    Gu Peimin; Zhang, B.; Key, M. H.; Hatchett, S. P.; Barbee, T.; Freeman, R. R.; Akli, K.; Hey, D.; King, J. A.; Mackinnon, A. J.; Snavely, R. A.; Stephens, R. B.

    2006-11-15

    A 68 eV extreme-ultraviolet light imaging diagnostic measures short pulse isochoric heating by electrons and protons in petawatt laser experiments. Temperatures are deduced from the absolute intensities and comparison with modeling using a radiation hydrodynamics code.

  14. Analysis of Extreme Heat in Historical and Projected Climate Simulations for Regional Climate Planning Purposes in the U.S.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Geil, K.; Zeng, X.; McMahan, B.; Ferguson, D. B.

    2015-12-01

    The U.S. National Climate Assessment (NCA) states that global climate models predict more extreme temperatures and more frequent, intense, and longer heat waves on a regional basis as global temperatures rise throughout the 21st century, but a thorough test of whether these models can simulate observed heat metrics and trends over the historical period was not included in the assessment. Understanding the capabilities of climate models over the historical period is crucial to assessing our confidence in their predictive ability at regional scales. Our work fills this research gap by evaluating the performance of Coupled Model Intercomparison Phase 5 (CMIP5) models as compared to observational data using multiple heat metrics. Our metrics are targeted for the southwest United States, but our regional analysis covers the entire continental U.S. and Alaska using 7 of the regions delineated by the NCA. The heat metrics include heat wave and cold wave frequency, intensity, and duration, overnight low temperatures, onset and length of the hot season, and human heat stress. For the best performing models, we compute the same heat metrics for the RCP scenarios. In addition to presenting the results of our CMIP5 historical and RCP analyses, we also describe how our results may be applied to the benefit of our community in Southern Arizona as a case study. Our research will be used by NOAA's Climate Assessment for the Southwest (CLIMAS) and by an interdisciplinary collaborative team of researchers from the University of Arizona working with an electric utility to integrate climate information into their strategic planning.

  15. Which weather systems are projected to cause future changes in mean and extreme precipitation in CMIP5 simulations?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Utsumi, Nobuyuki; Kim, Hyungjun; Kanae, Shinjiro; Oki, Taikan

    2016-09-01

    Future changes in precipitation due to climate change are of great concern to society. However, questions such as "Which weather systems will cause which changes?" and "Is the relative importance of these weather systems likely to change in the future?" have not been addressed fully yet. Here we present the first global estimates of the relative contributions of different weather systems (i.e., tropical cyclones, extratropical cyclones including fronts, and others) to changes in annual mean and extreme precipitation in the late 21st century using multimodel projections of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. Although the models present biases in tropical cyclones over southern hemisphere, in particular, the representations of global weather system patterns are comparable to the reanalysis data. Total precipitation from tropical cyclones decreases (increases) in the tropics (subtropics) and that from extratropical cyclones including fronts decreases (increases) on the equatorial (poleward) side of the storm tracks. In addition, the mean intensity and frequency of system-wise precipitation can change significantly even without considerable changes in annual amounts. We found that the subtropics, particularly in the Pacific and North Atlantic, are the regions where the proportions of precipitation by weather systems in annual mean and extreme precipitation display notable changes, suggesting distinct shifts in climate regimes. These regions have a common feature: they undergo the influence of several distinct weather systems in the present climate. In regions where climate regime shifts are projected, even the weather systems that have a minor contribution to precipitation in the present climate may cause considerable changes in annual and extreme precipitation.

  16. High Resolution Simulation of a Colorado Rockies Extreme Snow and Rain Event in both a Current and Future Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rasmussen, Roy; Ikeda, Kyoko; Liu, Changhai; Gutmann, Ethan; Gochis, David

    2016-04-01

    Modeling of extreme weather events often require very finely resolved treatment of atmospheric circulation structures in order to produce and localize the large moisture fluxes that result in extreme precipitation. This is particularly true for cool season orographic precipitation processes where the representation of the landform can significantly impact vertical velocity profiles and cloud moisture entrainment rates. This study presents results for high resolution regional climate modeling study of the Colorado Headwaters region using an updated version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model run at 4 km horizontal resolution and a hydrological extension package called WRF-Hydro. Previous work has shown that the WRF modeling system can produce credible depictions of winter orographic precipitation over the Colorado Rockies if run at horizontal resolutions < 6 km. Here we present results from a detailed study of an extreme springtime snowfall event that occurred along the Colorado Front Range in March 2003. Results from the impact of warming on total precipitation, snow-rain partitioning and surface hydrological fluxes (evapotranspiration and runoff) will be discussed in the context of how potential changes in temperature impact the amount of precipitation, the phase of precipitation (rain vs. snow) and the timing and amplitude of streamflow responses. The results show using the Pseudo Global Warming technique that intense precipitation rates significantly increased during the event and a significant fraction of the snowfall converts to rain which significantly amplifies the runoff response from one where runoff is produced gradually to one in which runoff is rapidly translated into streamflow values that approach significant flooding risks. Results from a new, CONUS scale high resolution climate simulation of extreme events in a current and future climate will be presented as time permits.

  17. Acclimation of killifish to thermal extremes of hot spring: Transcription of gonadal and liver heat shock genes.

    PubMed

    Akbarzadeh, Arash; Leder, Erica H

    2016-01-01

    In this study, we explored the hypothesis that killifish acclimate to thermal extremes through regulation of genes involved in stress and metabolism. We examined the liver and gonadal transcription of heat shock proteins (hsp70, hsp90a, hsp90b), glucokinase (gck), and high mobility group b1 (hmgb1) protein in wild killifish species from hot springs and rivers using quantitative real-time PCR. Moreover, we exposed a river killifish species to a long-term thermal regime of hot spring (37-40°C) and examined the liver transcription of the heat shock genes. Our results showed that hot spring killifish showed a significant, strong upregulation of liver hsp90a. Moreover, the testicular transcript levels of hsp90a, hsp90b, and hsp70 were higher in hot spring killifish than the river ones. The results of the common garden experiments showed that the transcripts of hsp70, hsp90b, and hmgb1 were mildly induced (> twofold) at the time when temperature reached to 37-40°C, while the transcripts of hsp90a were strongly induced (17-fold increase). The level of hsp90a was dramatically more upregulated when fish were maintained in thermal extreme (42-fold change higher than in ambient temperature). Moreover, a significant downregulation of gck transcripts was observed at the time when temperature was raised to 37-40°C (80-fold decrease) and during exposure to long-term thermal extreme (56-fold decrease). It can be concluded that the regulation of heat shock genes particularly hsp90a might be a key factor of the acclimation of fish to high temperature environments like hot springs.

  18. Impacts of The Future Changes in Extreme Events on Migration in The Middle East

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    An, Nazan; Turp, M. Tufan; Ozturk, Tugba; Kurnaz, M. Levent

    2016-04-01

    Natural hazards are defined as extreme events that threat people, their homes and their neighborhoods. They damage housing, food production system and other infrastructures. The frequency of natural hazards namely drought, floods can influence the residential decision-making and can cause substantial residential mobility by affecting relatively greater numbers of people in the region. Developing countries are more vulnerable to the impacts of natural hazards. Therefore, environmental migration can be associated with natural hazards especially in the developing countries. Limited water resources and demographic dynamics of the Middle East make the region one of the most affected domains from the impacts of natural hazards. In this study, we consider the relationship between migration as a demographic process and the frequency of natural hazards in the Middle East for the period of 2020 - 2045 with respect to 1980 - 2005 by performing the projection according to the scenario of IPCC, namely RCP8.5 through the RegCM4.4 and combining them with an econometric analysis. This research has been supported by Boǧaziçi University Research Fund Grant Number 10421.

  19. "Extremely minimally invasive": recent advances in nanotechnology research and future applications in neurosurgery.

    PubMed

    Mattei, Tobias A; Rehman, Azeem A

    2015-01-01

    The term "nanotechnology" refers to the development of materials and devices that have been designed with specific properties at the nanometer scale (10(-9) m), usually being less than 100 nm in size. Recent advances in nanotechnology have promised to enable visualization and intervention at the subcellular level, and its incorporation to future medical therapeutics is expected to bring new avenues for molecular imaging, targeted drug delivery, and personalized interventions. Although the central nervous system presents unique challenges to the implementation of new therapeutic strategies involving nanotechnology (such as the heterogeneous molecular environment of different CNS regions, the existence of multiple processing centers with different cytoarchitecture, and the presence of the blood-brain barrier), numerous studies have demonstrated that the incorporation of nanotechnology resources into the armamentarium of neurosurgery may lead to breakthrough advances in the near future. In this article, the authors present a critical review on the current 'state-of-the-art' of basic research in nanotechnology with special attention to those issues which present the greatest potential to generate major therapeutic progresses in the neurosurgical field, including nanoelectromechanical systems, nano-scaffolds for neural regeneration, sutureless anastomosis, molecular imaging, targeted drug delivery, and theranostic strategies.

  20. Mortality on extreme heat days using official thresholds in Spain: a multi-city time series analysis

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background The 2003 heat wave had a high impact on mortality in Europe, which made necessary to develop heat health watch warning systems. In Spain this was carried-out by the Ministry of Health in 2004, being based on exceeding of city-specific simultaneous thresholds of minimum and maximum daily temperatures. The aim of this study is to assess effectiveness of the official thresholds established by the Ministry of Health for each provincial capital city, by quantifying and comparing the short-term effects of above-threshold days on total daily mortality. Methods Total daily mortality and minimum and maximum temperatures for the 52 capitals of province in Spain were collected during summer months (June to September) for the study period 1995-2004. Data was analysed using GEE for Poisson regression. Relative Risk (RR) of total daily mortality was quantified for the current day of official thresholds exceeded. Results The number of days in which the thresholds were exceeded show great inconsistency, with provinces with great number of exceeded days adjacent to provinces that did not exceed or rarely exceeded. The average overall excess risk of dying during an extreme heat day was about 25% (RR = 1.24; 95% confidence interval (CI) = [1.19-1.30]). Relative risks showed a significant heterogeneity between cities (I2 = 54.9%). Western situation and low mean summer temperatures were associated with higher relative risks, suggesting thresholds may have been set too high in these areas. Conclusions This study confirmed that extreme heat days have a considerable impact on total daily mortality in Spain. Official thresholds gave consistent relative risk in the large capital cities. However, in some other cities thresholds PMID:22340020

  1. The biophysical and physiological basis for mitigated elevations in heart rate with electric fan use in extreme heat and humidity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ravanelli, Nicholas M.; Gagnon, Daniel; Hodder, Simon G.; Havenith, George; Jay, Ollie

    2016-07-01

    Electric fan use in extreme heat wave conditions has been thought to be disadvantageous because it might accelerate heat gain to the body via convection. However, it has been recently shown that fan use delays increases in heart rate even at high temperatures (42 °C) in young adults. We here assess the biophysical and physiological mechanisms underlying the apparently beneficial effects of fan use. Eight males (24 ± 3 y; 80.7 ± 11.7 kg; 2.0 ± 0.1 m2) rested at either 36 °C or 42 °C, with (F) or without (NF) electric fan use (4.2 m/s) for 120 min while humidity increased every 7.5 min by 0.3 kPa from a baseline value of 1.6 kPa. Heart rate (HR), local sweat rate (LSR), cutaneous vascular conductance (CVC), core and mean skin temperatures, and the combined convective/radiative heat loss (C+R), evaporative heat balance requirements (Ereq) and maximum evaporative potential (Emax) were assessed. C+R was greater with fan use at 36 °C (F 8 ± 6, NF 2 ± 2 W/m2; P = 0.04) and more negative (greater dry heat gain) with fan use at 42 °C (F -78 ± 4, NF -27 ± 2 W/m2; P < 0.01). Consequently, Ereq was lower at 36 °C (F 38 ± 16, NF 45 ± 3 W/m2; P = 0.04) and greater at 42 °C (F 125 ± 1, NF 74 ± 3 W/m2; P < 0.01) with fan use. However, fan use resulted in a greater Emax at baseline humidity at both 36 °C (F 343 ± 10, NF 153 ± 5 W/m2; P < 0.01) and 42 °C (F 376 ± 13, NF 161 ± 4 W/m2; P < 0.01) and throughout the incremental increases in humidity. Within the humidity range that a rise in HR was prevented by fan use but not without a fan, LSR was higher in NF at both 36 °C (P = 0.04) and 42 °C (P = 0.05), and skin temperature was higher in NF at 42 °C (P = 0.05), but no differences in CVC or core temperatures were observed (all P > 0.05). These results suggest that the delayed increase in heart rate with fan use during extreme heat and humidity is associated with improved evaporative efficiency.

  2. The biophysical and physiological basis for mitigated elevations in heart rate with electric fan use in extreme heat and humidity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ravanelli, Nicholas M.; Gagnon, Daniel; Hodder, Simon G.; Havenith, George; Jay, Ollie

    2017-02-01

    Electric fan use in extreme heat wave conditions has been thought to be disadvantageous because it might accelerate heat gain to the body via convection. However, it has been recently shown that fan use delays increases in heart rate even at high temperatures (42 °C) in young adults. We here assess the biophysical and physiological mechanisms underlying the apparently beneficial effects of fan use. Eight males (24 ± 3 y; 80.7 ± 11.7 kg; 2.0 ± 0.1 m2) rested at either 36 °C or 42 °C, with (F) or without (NF) electric fan use (4.2 m/s) for 120 min while humidity increased every 7.5 min by 0.3 kPa from a baseline value of 1.6 kPa. Heart rate (HR), local sweat rate (LSR), cutaneous vascular conductance (CVC), core and mean skin temperatures, and the combined convective/radiative heat loss (C+R), evaporative heat balance requirements (Ereq) and maximum evaporative potential (Emax) were assessed. C+R was greater with fan use at 36 °C (F 8 ± 6, NF 2 ± 2 W/m2; P = 0.04) and more negative (greater dry heat gain) with fan use at 42 °C (F -78 ± 4, NF -27 ± 2 W/m2; P < 0.01). Consequently, Ereq was lower at 36 °C (F 38 ± 16, NF 45 ± 3 W/m2; P = 0.04) and greater at 42 °C (F 125 ± 1, NF 74 ± 3 W/m2; P < 0.01) with fan use. However, fan use resulted in a greater Emax at baseline humidity at both 36 °C (F 343 ± 10, NF 153 ± 5 W/m2; P < 0.01) and 42 °C (F 376 ± 13, NF 161 ± 4 W/m2; P < 0.01) and throughout the incremental increases in humidity. Within the humidity range that a rise in HR was prevented by fan use but not without a fan, LSR was higher in NF at both 36 °C ( P = 0.04) and 42 °C ( P = 0.05), and skin temperature was higher in NF at 42 °C ( P = 0.05), but no differences in CVC or core temperatures were observed (all P > 0.05). These results suggest that the delayed increase in heart rate with fan use during extreme heat and humidity is associated with improved evaporative efficiency.

  3. Urban Form and Extreme Heat Events: Are Sprawling Cities More Vulnerable to Climate Change Than Compact Cities?

    PubMed Central

    Stone, Brian; Hess, Jeremy J.; Frumkin, Howard

    2010-01-01

    Background Extreme heat events (EHEs) are increasing in frequency in large U.S. cities and are responsible for a greater annual number of climate-related fatalities, on average, than any other form of extreme weather. In addition, low-density, sprawling patterns of urban development have been associated with enhanced surface temperatures in urbanized areas. Objectives In this study. we examined the association between urban form at the level of the metropolitan region and the frequency of EHEs over a five-decade period. Methods We employed a widely published sprawl index to measure the association between urban form in 2000 and the mean annual rate of change in EHEs between 1956 and 2005. Results We found that the rate of increase in the annual number of EHEs between 1956 and 2005 in the most sprawling metropolitan regions was more than double the rate of increase observed in the most compact metropolitan regions. Conclusions The design and management of land use in metropolitan regions may offer an important tool for adapting to the heat-related health effects associated with ongoing climate change. PMID:21114000

  4. Survival of the faucet snail after chemical disinfection, pH extremes, and heated water bath treatments

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Mitchell, A.J.; Cole, R.A.

    2008-01-01

    The faucet snail Bithynia tentaculata, a nonindigenous aquatic snail from Eurasia, was introduced into Lake Michigan in 1871 and has spread to the mid-Atlantic states, the Great Lakes region, Montana, and most recently, the Mississippi River. The faucet snail serves as intermediate host for several trematodes that have caused large-scale mortality among water birds, primarily in the Great Lakes region and Montana. It is important to limit the spread of the faucet snail; small fisheries equipment can serve as a method of snail distribution. Treatments with chemical disinfection, pH extremes, and heated water baths were tested to determine their effectiveness as a disinfectant for small fisheries equipment. Two treatments eliminated all test snails: (1) a 24-h exposure to Hydrothol 191 at a concentration of at least 20 mg/L and (2) a treatment with 50??C heated water for 1 min or longer. Faucet snails were highly resistant to ethanol, NaCl, formalin, Lysol, potassium permanganate, copper sulfate, Baquacil, Virkon, household bleach, and pH extremes (as low as 1 and as high as 13).

  5. Prospects for Measuring Supermassive Black Hole Masses with Future Extremely Large Telescopes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Do, Tuan; Wright, S. A.; Barton, E. J.; Barth, A. J.; Simard, L.; Larkin, J. E.; Moore, A.

    2013-01-01

    The next generation of giant-segmented mirror telescopes (> 20 m) will enable us to observe galactic nuclei at much higher angular resolution and sensitivity than ever before. These capabilities will introduce a revolutionary shift in our understanding of the origin and evolution of supermassive black holes by enabling more precise black hole mass measurements in a mass range that is unreachable today. We present simulations and predictions of the observations of nuclei that will be made with the Thirty Meter Telescope (TMT) and the adaptive optics assisted integral-field spectrograph IRIS. These simulations, for the first time, use realistic values for the sky, telescope, adaptive optics system, and instrument, to determine the expected signal-to-noise of a range of possible targets spanning intermediate mass black holes of ~10^4 M⊙ to the most massive black holes known today of >10^10 M⊙. We find that future integral-field spectrographs will be able to observe Milky Way-mass black holes out the distance of the Virgo cluster, and will allow us to observe many more brightest-cluster galaxies where the most massive black holes are thought to reside. We also evaluate how well the kinematic moments of the velocity distributions can be constrained at different spectral resolutions and plate scales. We find that a spectral resolution of ~8000 will be necessary to measure the masses of IMBHs. We find by using the SDSS DR7 catalog of galaxies that over 4000 massive black holes will be observable at distances between 0.005 < z < 0.3 with the estimated sensitivity and angular resolution of TMT. These observations will provide the most accurate dynamical mass measurements of black holes to enable the study of their demography, address the origin of the M_bh-σ and M_bh - L relationships, and the origins and evolution of black holes through cosmic time.

  6. An Electrothermal Plasma Source Developed for Simulation of Transient Heat Loads in Future Large Fusion Devices

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gebhart, Trey; Baylor, Larry; Winfrey, Leigh

    2016-10-01

    The realization of fusion energy requires materials that can withstand high heat and particle fluxes at the plasma material interface. In this work, an electrothermal (ET) plasma source has been designed as a possible transient heat flux source for a linear plasma material interaction device. An ET plasma source operates in the ablative arc regime, which is driven by a DC capacitive discharge. The current travels through the 4mm bore of a boron nitride liner and subsequently ablates and ionizes the liner material. This results in a high density plasma with a large unidirectional bulk flow out of the source exit. The pulse length for the ET source has been optimized using a pulse forming network to have a duration of 1ms at full-width half maximum. The peak currents and maximum source energies seen in this system are 2kA and 5kJ. The goal of this work is to show that the ET source produces electron densities and heat fluxes that are comparable to transient events in future large magnetic confinement fusion devices. Heat flux, plasma temperature, and plasma density were determined for each test shot using infrared imaging and optical spectroscopy techniques. This work will compare the ET source output (heat flux, temperature, and density) with and without an applied magnetic field. Research sponsored by the Laboratory Directed Research and Development Program of Oak Ridge National Laboratory, managed by UT-Battelle, LLC, for the U. S. Department of Energy.

  7. Comparing the simulated extreme runoff characteristics for the past and the future in a small Hungarian catchment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kis, Anna; Pongrácz, Rita; Bartholy, Judit; Adolf Szabó, János

    2016-04-01

    Extreme hydrological phenomena (e.g. high and low flows) are caused by specific meteorological conditions. Therefore, climate change affecting these conditions may have a substantial influence on hydrological processes, and also, on associated droughts and floods, which can result in severe economical and ecosystems consequences. In order to mitigate these hazards, it is essential to prepare model-based estimations for future tendencies and build appropriate adaptation strategies in time. In this paper, we address the potential impacts of global climate change on hydrological extremes, considering the ~5700 km2 size catchment of Zagyva-Tarna, located in the northern part of Central Hungary. First, the spatially distributed, physically-based hydrological model (DIWA) is calibrated for the Zagyva-Tarna basin, using two-year long historical meteorological and runoff data. To analysing the past, the calibrated DIWA has been run for 1983-2003 using meteorological data provided by observations, the CarpatClim gridded database, and the RegCM4 regional climate model (taking into account new RCP scenarios). Then we compared the simulated runoff characteristics, and it could be concluded that RegCM4 substantially differs from observations. Thus, in order to eliminate these systematic errors, a percentile-based bias-correction method was applied to the raw RCM data, for which the CarpatClim database served as a reference. Finally, we compared the runoff characteristics of the past and the future, considering the observations, the CarpatClim database as well, as the raw and the bias-corrected RCM data.

  8. SISGR - In situ characterization and modeling of formation reactions under extreme heating rates in nanostructured multilayer foils

    SciTech Connect

    Hufnagel, Todd C.

    2014-06-09

    Materials subjected to extreme conditions, such as very rapid heating, behave differently than materials under more ordinary conditions. In this program we examined the effect of rapid heating on solid-state chemical reactions in metallic materials. One primary goal was to develop experimental techniques capable of observing these reactions, which can occur at heating rates in excess of one million degrees Celsius per second. One approach that we used is x-ray diffraction performed using microfocused x-ray beams and very fast x-ray detectors. A second approach is the use of a pulsed electron source for dynamic transmission electron microscopy. With these techniques we were able to observe how the heating rate affects the chemical reaction, from which we were able to discern general principles about how these reactions proceed. A second thrust of this program was to develop computational tools to help us understand and predict the reactions. From atomic-scale simulations were learned about the interdiffusion between different metals at high heating rates, and about how new crystalline phases form. A second class of computational models allow us to predict the shape of the reaction front that occurs in these materials, and to connect our understanding of interdiffusion from the atomistic simulations to measurements made in the laboratory. Both the experimental and computational techniques developed in this program are expected to be broadly applicable to a wider range of scientific problems than the intermetallic solid-state reactions studied here. For example, we have already begun using the x-ray techniques to study how materials respond to mechanical deformation at very high rates.

  9. Cooling vests with phase change materials: the effects of melting temperature on heat strain alleviation in an extremely hot environment.

    PubMed

    Gao, Chuansi; Kuklane, Kalev; Holmér, Ingvar

    2011-06-01

    A previous study by the authors using a heated thermal manikin showed that the cooling rates of phase change material (PCM) are dependent on temperature gradient, mass, and covering area. The objective of this study was to investigate if the cooling effects of the temperature gradient observed on a thermal manikin could be validated on human subjects in extreme heat. The subjects wore cooling vests with PCMs at two melting temperatures (24 and 28°C) and fire-fighting clothing and equipment, thus forming three test groups (vest24, vest28 and control group without the vest). They walked on a treadmill at a speed of 5 km/h in a climatic chamber (air temperature = 55°C, relative humidity = 30%, vapour pressure = 4,725 Pa, and air velocity = 0.4 m/s). The results showed that the PCM vest with a lower melting temperature (24°C) has a stronger cooling effect on the torso and mean skin temperatures than that with a higher melting temperature (28°C). Both PCM vests mitigate peak core temperature increase during the resting recovery period. The two PCM vests tested, however, had no significant effect on the alleviation of core temperature increase during exercise in the heat. To study the possibility of effective cooling of core temperature, cooling garments with PCMs at even lower melting temperatures (e.g. 15°C) and a larger covering area should be investigated.

  10. Extreme Heat Resistance of Food Borne Pathogens Campylobacter jejuni, Escherichia coli, and Salmonella typhimurium on Chicken Breast Fillet during Cooking

    PubMed Central

    de Jong, Aarieke E. I.; van Asselt, Esther D.; Zwietering, Marcel H.; Nauta, Maarten J.; de Jonge, Rob

    2012-01-01

    The aim of this research was to determine the decimal reduction times of bacteria present on chicken fillet in boiling water. The experiments were conducted with Campylobacter jejuni, Salmonella, and Escherichia coli. Whole chicken breast fillets were inoculated with the pathogens, stored overnight (4°C), and subsequently cooked. The surface temperature reached 70°C within 30 sec and 85°C within one minute. Extremely high decimal reduction times of 1.90, 1.97, and 2.20 min were obtained for C. jejuni, E. coli, and S. typhimurium, respectively. Chicken meat and refrigerated storage before cooking enlarged the heat resistance of the food borne pathogens. Additionally, a high challenge temperature or fast heating rate contributed to the level of heat resistance. The data were used to assess the probability of illness (campylobacteriosis) due to consumption of chicken fillet as a function of cooking time. The data revealed that cooking time may be far more critical than previously assumed. PMID:22389647

  11. Combining regional climate and national human development scenarios to estimate future vulnerability to extreme climate and weather events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Patt, A.; Nussbaumer, P.

    2009-04-01

    Extreme climate and weather events such as droughts, floods, and tropical cyclones account for over 60% of the loss of life, and over 90% of total impacts, from natural disasters. Both observed trends and global climate models (GCMs) suggest that the frequency and intensity of extreme events is increasing, and will continue to increase as a result of climate change. Among planners and policy-makers at both national and international levels there is thus concern that this rise in extreme events will lead to greater losses in the future. Since low levels of development are associated with greater numbers of people killed and needing emergency assistance from natural disasters, the concern is most pronounced for least developed countries. If, however, these countries make substantial improvements in their levels of human development, as leading forecasters suggest may be the case over the coming decades, then their vulnerability to extreme events may fall. In this study, we examine the potential combined effects of increased extreme event frequency and improved levels of human development, to generate scenarios of risk levels into the second half of the century. It is the African continent for which these results may be the most relevant, since it is widely viewed as most vulnerable to increased risks from climate change; we focus on the particular country of Mozambique, which has experienced high losses from droughts, floods, and tropical cyclones in recent decades, and stands out as being among the most vulnerable in Africa. To assess the change in risk levels from the present until 2060, we pull together three pieces of analysis. The first is a statistical analysis of the losses from 1990-2007 from climate-related disasters, using national level data from the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED) and the United Nations. From this analysis, we establish statistical relationships between several drivers of vulnerability—including country size

  12. Extreme ultraviolet diagnosis of a neutral-beam-heated mirror machine

    SciTech Connect

    Drake, R.P.

    1980-07-01

    Extreme ultraviolet emissions from the LLL 2XIIB fusion research experiment have been studied. (2XIIB was a magnetic-mirror-plasma-confinement device; beams of high-energy (20 keV) neutral deuterium created a high-density, high-temperature plasma.) A normal-incidence concave-grating monochromator, equipped with a windowless photomultiplier tube, was used to measure emissions in the spectral region from 400 Angstrom to 1600 A. Emissions of oxygen, titanium, carbon, nitrogen, and deuterium were identified; the oxygen brightnesses at times exceeded 10/sup 18/ ph-s/sup -1/-cm/sup -2/-sr/sup -1/. A survey of the emission characteristics found the oxygen concentration was 3%, the other impurities had concentrations near 0.4%. The radiated power loss was about 5% of the deposited neutral beam power.

  13. Climate change impacts on extreme events in the United States: an uncertainty analysis

    EPA Science Inventory

    Extreme weather and climate events, such as heat waves, droughts and severe precipitation events, have substantial impacts on ecosystems and the economy. However, future climate simulations display large uncertainty in mean changes. As a result, the uncertainty in future changes ...

  14. The past, present, and future viscous heat dissipation available for Greenland subglacial conduit formation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mankoff, Kenneth D.; Tulaczyk, Slawek M.

    2017-01-01

    Basal hydrology of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) influences its dynamics and mass balance through basal lubrication and ice-bed decoupling or efficient water removal and ice-bed coupling. Variations in subglacial water pressure through the seasonal evolution of the subglacial hydrological system help control ice velocity. Near the ice sheet margin, large basal conduits are melted by the viscous heat dissipation (VHD) from surface runoff routed to the bed. These conduits may lead to efficient drainage systems that lower subglacial water pressure, increase basal effective stress, and reduce ice velocity. In this study we quantify the energy available for VHD historically at present and under future climate scenarios. At present, 345 km3 of annual runoff delivers 66 GW to the base of the ice sheet per year. These values are already ˜ 50 % more than the historical 1960-1999 value of 46 GW. By 2100 under IPCC AR5 RCP8.5 (RCP4.5) scenarios, 1278 (524) km3 of runoff may deliver 310 (110) GW to the ice sheet base. Hence, the ice sheet may experience a 5-to-7-fold increase in VHD in the near future which will enhance opening of subglacial conduits near the margin and will warm basal ice in the interior. The other significant basal heat source is geothermal heat flux (GHF), which has an estimated value of 36 GW within the present-day VHD area. With increasing surface meltwater penetration to the bed the basal heat budget in the active basal hydrology zone of the GIS will be increasingly dominated by VHD and relatively less sensitive to GHF, which may result in spatial changes in the ice flow field and in its seasonal variability.

  15. Effect of cold water and inverse lighting on growth performance of broiler chickens under extreme heat stress.

    PubMed

    Park, Sang-oh; Park, Byung-sung; Hwangbo, Jong

    2015-07-01

    The present study was carried out to investigate the effect of provision of extreme heat stress diet (EHD), inverse lighting, cold water on growth performance of broiler chickens exposed to extreme heat stress. The chickens were divided into four treatment groups, (T1, T2, T3, T4) as given below: Ti (EHD 1, 10:00-19:00 dark, 19:00-10:00 light, cool water 9 degrees C); T2 (EHD 2, 10:00-19:00 dark, 19:00-10:00 light, cool water 9 degrees C); T3 (EHD 1, 09:00-18:00 dark, 18:00-09:00 light, cool water 141C); T4 (EHD 2, 09:00-18:00 dark, 18:00-09:00 light, cool water 14 degrees C. EHD 1 contained soybean oil, molasses, methionine and lysine; EHD 2 contained the same ingredients as EHD 1 with addition of vitamin C. Groups T1 and T2 were given cooler water than the othertwo groups, and displayed higher body weight increase and diet intake as compared to T3 and T4 (p<0.05). The weights of their liver and gizzard were similar but the weights of the thymus and bursa of fabricius (F) were higher in groups T1 and T2 (p<0.05). It was observed that groups T1 and T2 displayed higher concentrations of blood triglyceride, total cholesterol, HDL-cholesterol and blood sugar as compared to T3 and T4; however LDL-cholesterol level was higher in groups T3 and T4 (p<0.05). T1 and T2 displayed higher levels of immunity substances such as IgG, IgAand IgM as compared to T3 and T4, but the blood level of corticosterone was lower in groups T1 and T2 (p<0.05). Ti and T2 contained higher amount of fecal Lactobacill as compared to T3 and T4; howeverT3 and T4 contained higher amount of fecal E. coli, total aerobic bacteria and coliform bacteria (p<0.05). Groups T1 and T2 displayed higher concentrations of cecal total short chain fatty acids, acetic acid and propionic acid but groups T3 and T4 displayed higher concentrations of butyric acid, isobutyric acid, valeric acid and isovaleric acid (p<0.05). The present study reports novel results such that the supply of extreme heat stress diet, inverse

  16. Extremes of heat conduction-Pushing the boundaries of the thermal conductivity of materials

    SciTech Connect

    Cahill, DG

    2012-09-12

    Thermal conductivity is a familiar property of materials: silver conducts heat well, and plastic does not. In recent years, an interdisciplinary group of materials scientists, engineers, physicists, and chemists have succeeded in pushing back long-established limits in the thermal conductivity of materials. Carbon nanotubes and graphene are at the high end of the thermal conductivity spectrum due to their high sound velocities and relative lack of processes that scatter phonons. Unfortunately, the superlative thermal properties of carbon nanotubes have not found immediate application in composites or interface materials because of difficulties in making good thermal contact with the nanotubes. At the low end of the thermal conductivity spectrum, solids that combine order and disorder in the random stacking of two-dimensional crystalline sheets, so-called "disordered layered crystals," show a thermal conductivity that is only a factor of 2 larger than air. The cause of this low thermal conductivity may be explained by the large anisotropy in elastic constants that suppresses the density of phonon modes that propagate along the soft direction. Low-dimensional quantum magnets demonstrate that electrons and phonons are not the only significant carriers of heat. Near room temperature, the spin thermal conductivity of spin-ladders is comparable to the electronic thermal conductivities of metals. Our measurements of nanoscale thermal transport properties employ a variety of ultrafast optical pump-probe metrology tools that we have developed over the past several years. We are currently working to extend these techniques to high pressures (60 GPa), high magnetic fields (5 T), and high temperatures (1000 K).

  17. Precision velocimetry planet hunting with PARAS: current performance and lessons to inform future extreme precision radial velocity instruments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Roy, Arpita; Chakraborty, Abhijit; Mahadevan, Suvrath; Chaturvedi, Priyanka; Prasad, Neelam J. S. S. V.; Shah, Vishal; Pathan, F. M.; Anandarao, B. G.

    2016-08-01

    The PRL Advanced Radial-velocity Abu-sky Search (PARAS) instrument is a fiber-fed stabilized high-resolution cross-dispersed echelle spectrograph, located on the 1.2 m telescope in Mt. Abu India. Designed for exoplanet detection, PARAS is capable of single-shot spectral coverage of 3800 - 9600 Å, and currently achieving radial velocity (RV) precisions approaching 1 m s-1 over several months using simultaneous ThAr calibration. As such, it is one of the few dedicated stabilized fiber-fed spectrographs on small (1-2 m) telescopes that are able to fill an important niche in RV follow-up and stellar characterization. The success of ground-based RV surveys is motivating the push into extreme precisions, with goals of 10 cm s-1 in the optical and <1 m s-1 in the near-infrared (NIR). Lessons from existing instruments like PARAS are invaluable in informing hardware design, providing pipeline prototypes, and guiding scientific surveys. Here we present our current precision estimates of PARAS based on observations of bright RV standard stars, and describe the evolution of the data reduction and RV analysis pipeline as instrument characterization progresses and we gather longer baselines of data. Secondly, we discuss how our experience with PARAS is a critical component in the development of future cutting edge instruments like (1) the Habitable Zone Planet Finder (HPF), a near-infrared spectrograph optimized to look for planets around M dwarfs, scheduled to be commissioned on the Hobby Eberly Telescope in 2017, and (2) the NEID optical spectrograph, designed in response to the NN-EXPLORE call for an extreme precision Doppler spectrometer (EPDS) for the WIYN telescope. In anticipation of instruments like TESS and GAIA, the ground-based RV support system is being reinforced. We emphasize that instruments like PARAS will play an intrinsic role in providing both complementary follow-up and battlefront experience for these next generation of precision velocimeters.

  18. Combined Heat and Power: A Decade of Progress, A Vision for the Future

    SciTech Connect

    none,

    2009-08-01

    Over the past 10 years, DOE has built a solid foundation for a robust CHP marketplace. We have aligned with key partners to produce innovative technologies and spearhead market-transforming projects. Our commercialization activities and Clean Energy Regional Application Centers have expanded CHP across the nation. More must be done to tap CHP’s full potential. Read more about DOE’s CHP Program in “Combined Heat and Power: A Decade of Progress, A Vision for the Future.”

  19. Heat wave beats green wave: the effect of a climate extreme on alpine grassland phenology as seen by phenocams

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cremonese, Edoardo; Filippa, Gianluca; Migliavacca, Mirco; Siniscalco, Consolata; Oddi, Ludovica; Galvagno, Marta

    2016-04-01

    The year 2015 has been one of the warmest on record for many regions of the world. The record-breaking temperatures did not spare the European Alps, where the summer anomaly reached +4°C. This heat wave caused important impacts on the seasonal development and structural properties of alpine grasslands that deserve investigations. Phenocams are useful tools to describe canopy greenness seasonal dynamics and many recent studies demonstrated that the major phenological events (e.g. budbrust, senescence, …) can be extracted from greenness trajectories. In contrast, little is know about their capabilities to describe the impact of extreme climate events on a fully developed canopy. Moreover the relation between quantitative structural and functional vegetation properties (e.g. biomass, LAI, …) and phenocam data remains poorly investigated. In this study we examine the impact of the 2015 summer heat wave on a subalpine grassland by jointly analyzing phenocam greenness trajectories, proximal sensing and flux data together with field measures of vegetation structural properties. The effect of different environmental drivers on greenness seasonal development was further evaluated by a modeling approach (GSI model). Phenocam tracked the impact of heatwave 2015 that caused a lower canopy development and an anticipation of yellowing by more than 2 months. The same pattern was observed for CO2 fluxes, NDVI and field measures. GSI model results show that during the heatwave, a combination of moisture and high temperature limitation was responsible for the observed reduction of the canopy development. Moreover, spatially explicit analysis of digital images allowed to highlight the differential response of specific plant functional types to the extreme event.

  20. Beyond the classical theory of heat conduction: a perspective view of future from entropy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tian, Xiaowei; Lai, Xiang; Zhu, Pingan; Wang, Liqiu

    2016-10-01

    Energy is conserved by the first law of thermodynamics; its quality degrades constantly due to entropy generation, by the second law of thermodynamics. It is thus important to examine the entropy generation regarding the way to reduce its magnitude and the limit of entropy generation as time tends to infinity regarding whether it is bounded or not. This work initiates such an analysis with one-dimensional heat conduction. The work not only offers some fundamental insights of universe and its future, but also builds up the relation between the second law of thermodynamics and mathematical inequalities via developing the latter of either new or classical nature. A concise review of entropy is also included for the interest of performing the analysis in this work and the similar analysis for other processes in the future.

  1. Beyond the classical theory of heat conduction: a perspective view of future from entropy.

    PubMed

    Tian, Xiaowei; Lai, Xiang; Zhu, Pingan; Wang, Liqiu

    2016-10-01

    Energy is conserved by the first law of thermodynamics; its quality degrades constantly due to entropy generation, by the second law of thermodynamics. It is thus important to examine the entropy generation regarding the way to reduce its magnitude and the limit of entropy generation as time tends to infinity regarding whether it is bounded or not. This work initiates such an analysis with one-dimensional heat conduction. The work not only offers some fundamental insights of universe and its future, but also builds up the relation between the second law of thermodynamics and mathematical inequalities via developing the latter of either new or classical nature. A concise review of entropy is also included for the interest of performing the analysis in this work and the similar analysis for other processes in the future.

  2. Extreme thermotolerance and behavioral induction of 70-kDa heat shock proteins and their encoding genes in honey bees

    PubMed Central

    2008-01-01

    Foraging honey bees frequently leave the hive to gather pollen and nectar for the colony. This period of their lives is marked by periodic extremes of body temperature, metabolic expenditure, and flight muscle activity. Following ecologically relevant episodes of hyperthermia between 33°C and 50°C, heat shock protein 70 (Hsp70) expression and hsp70/hsc70-4 activity in brains of nonflying laboratory-held bees increased by only two to three times baseline at temperatures 46–50°C. Induction was undetectable in thoracic–flight muscles. Yet, thorax hsp70 mRNA (but not hsc70-4 mRNA) levels were up to ten times higher in flight-capable hive bees and foraging bees compared to 1-day-old, flight-incapable bees, while brain hsp70/hsc70-4 mRNA levels were low and varied little among behavioral groups. These data suggest honey bee tissues, especially flight muscles, are extremely thermotolerant. Furthermore, Hsp70 expression in the thoraces of flight-capable bees is probably flight-induced by oxidative and mechanical damage to flight muscle proteins rather than temperature. PMID:18696260

  3. Spatio-temporal patterns of recent and future climate extremes in the eastern Mediterranean and Middle East region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kostopoulou, E.; Giannakopoulos, C.; Hatzaki, M.; Karali, A.; Hadjinicolaou, P.; Lelieveld, J.; Lange, M. A.

    2014-06-01

    Recent and future changes in temperature and precipitation climate extremes are estimated using the Hadley Centre PRECIS ("Providing REgional Climates for Impacts Studies") climate model for the eastern Mediterranean and Middle East region. The area of interest is considered vulnerable to extreme climate events as there is evidence for a temperature rise while precipitation tends to decline, suggesting likely effects on vital socioeconomic sectors in the region. Observations have been obtained for the recent period (1961-1990) and used to evaluate the model output. The spatial distribution of recent temporal trends in temperature indicates strong increasing in minimum temperature over the eastern Balkan Peninsula, Turkey and the Arabian Peninsula. The rate of warming reaches 0.4-0.5 °C decade-1 in a large part of the domain, while warming is expected to be strongest in summer (0.6-0.7 °C decade-1) in the eastern Balkans and western Turkey. The trends in annual and summer maximum temperature are estimated at approximately 0.5 and 0.6 °C decade-1 respectively. Recent estimates do not indicate statistically significant trends in precipitation except for individual sub-regions. Results indicate a future warming trend for the study area over the last 30 years of the 21st century. Trends are estimated to be positive and statistically significant in nearly the entire region. The annual trend patterns for both minimum and maximum temperature show warming rates of approximately 0.4-0.6 °C decade-1, with pronounced warming over the Middle Eastern countries. Summer temperatures reveal a gradual warming (0.5-0.9 °C decade-1) over much of the region. The model projects drying trends by 5-30% in annual precipitation towards the end of the 21st century, with the number of wet days decreasing at the rate of 10-30 days year-1, while heavy precipitation is likely to decrease in the high-elevation areas by 15 days year-1.

  4. Historical and potential future impacts of extreme hydrological events on the Amazonian floodplain hydrology and inundation dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Macedo, M.; Panday, P. K.; Coe, M. T.; Lefebvre, P.; Castello, L.

    2015-12-01

    The Amazonian floodplains and wetlands cover one fifth of the basin and are highly productive promoting diverse biological communities and sustaining human populations with fisheries. Seasonal inundation of the floodplains fluctuates in response to drought or extreme rainfall as observed in the recent droughts of 2005 and 2010 where river levels dropped to among the lowest recorded. We model and evaluate the historical (1940-2010) and projected future (2010-2100) impacts of droughts and floods on the floodplain hydrology and inundation dynamics in the central Amazon using the Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS) and the Terrestrial Hydrology Model and Biogeochemistry (THMB). Simulated discharge correlates well with observed discharges for tributaries originating in Brazil but underestimates basins draining regions in the non-Brazilian Amazon (Solimões, Japuŕa, Madeira, and Negro) by greater than 30%. A volume bias-correction from the simulated and observed runoff was used to correct the input precipitation across the major tributaries of the Amazon basin that drain the Andes. Simulated hydrological parameters (discharge, inundated area and river height) using corrected precipitation has a strong correlation with field measured discharge at gauging stations, surface water extent data (Global Inundation Extent from Multi-Satellites (GIEMS) and NASA Earth System Data Records (ESDRs) for inundation), and satellite radar altimetry (TOPEX/POSEIDON altimeter data for 1992-1998 and ENVISAT data for 2002-2010). We also used an ensemble of model outputs participating in the IPCC AR5 to drive two sets of simulations with and without carbon dioxide fertilization for the 2006-2100 period, and evaluated the potential scale and variability of future changes in discharge and inundation dynamics due to the influences of climate change and vegetation response to carbon dioxide fertilization. Preliminary modeled results for future scenarios using Representative Concentration

  5. Physiologic monitoring in extreme environments: application of microsensors and embedded processors to predict heat stress in fire fighters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Van Gelder, Carin; Pranger, L. Alex; Urias, Adrian R.; Lo, Ronalee; Wiesmann, William P.; Winchell, Robert J.; Kolka, Margaret A.; Stachenfeld, Nina; Bogucki, Sandy

    2002-05-01

    Interior structural firefighting involves heavy physical exertion under extreme environmental conditions. Personal protective clothing and equipment impose 50 lbs of weight on fire fighters and impede the evaporative cooling mechanisms normally responsible for thermoregulation during exercise. The intense heat of the fire ground further exacerbates the physiological stress on working fire fighters. Occupational morbidity and mortality statistics reflect the impact of such stressors on fire service personnel. Non-invasive physiological monitoring capabilities are needed to more precisely define the cardiovascular responses to the demands of fire fighting and identify markers of impending failure of compensatory mechanisms prior to collapse or onset of irreversible pathology. A suite of sensors designed to provide continuous remote monitoring of fire fighters has been developed. Oximetry sensors are incorporated into SCBA facemask to allow unencumbered monitoring and analysis of cardiovascular and pulmonary function. The present report also describes a model system for physiological studies of fire fighting. This system comprises a series of timed simulations of fire ground tasks performed by fire fighters in a heated environmental chamber. Preliminary testing confirms the feasibility of reliable oximetry signal acquisition under fire ground conditions.

  6. The use of an electrothermal plasma gun to simulate the extremely high heat flux conditions of a tokamak disruption

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gilligan, John; Bourham, Mohamed

    1993-09-01

    Disruption damage conditions for future large tokamaks like ITER are nearly impossible to simulate on current tokamaks. The electrothermal plasma source SIRENS has been designed, constructed, and operated to produce high density (> 1025/m3), low temperature (1-3 eV) plasma formed by the ablation of the insulator with currents of up to 100 kA (100 μs pulse length) and energies up to 15 kJ. The source heat fluence (variable from 0.2 to 7 MJ/m2) is adequate for simulation of the thermal quench phase of plasma disruption in future fusion tokamaks. Different materials have been exposed to the high heat flux in SIRENS, where comparative erosion behavior was obtained. Vapor shield phenomena has been characterized for different materials, and the energy transmission factor through the shielding layer is obtained. The device is also equipped with a magnet capable of producing a parallel magnetic field (up to 16 T) over a 8 msec pulse length. The magnetic field is produced to decrease the turbulent energy transport through the vapor shield, which provides further reduction of surface erosion (magnetic vapor shield effect).

  7. The use of an electrothermal plasma gun to simulate the extremely high heat flux conditions of a tokamak disruption

    SciTech Connect

    Gilligan, J.; Bourham, M. )

    1993-09-01

    Disruption damage conditions for future large tokamaks like ITER are nearly impossible to simulate on current tokamaks. The electrothermal plasma source SIRENS has been designed, constructed, and operated to produce high density (> 10[sup 25]/m[sup 3]), low temperature (1-3 eV) plasma formed by the ablation of the insulator with currents of up to 100 kA (100 [mu]s pulse length) and energies up to 15 kJ. The source heat fluence (variable from 0.2 to 7 MJ/m[sup 2]) is adequate for simulation of the thermal quench phase of plasma disruption in future fusion tokamaks. Different materials have been exposed to the high heat flux in SIRENS, where comparative erosion behavior was obtained. Vapor shield phenomena has been characterized for different materials, and the energy transmission factor through the shielding layer is obtained. The device is also equipped with a magnet capable of producing a parallel magnetic field (up to 16 T) over a 8 msec pulse length. The magnetic field is produced to decrease the turbulent energy transport through the vapor shield, which provides further reduction of surface erosion (magnetic vapor shield effect).

  8. The biophysical and physiological basis for mitigated elevations in heart rate with electric fan use in extreme heat and humidity.

    PubMed

    Ravanelli, Nicholas M; Gagnon, Daniel; Hodder, Simon G; Havenith, George; Jay, Ollie

    2017-02-01

    Electric fan use in extreme heat wave conditions has been thought to be disadvantageous because it might accelerate heat gain to the body via convection. However, it has been recently shown that fan use delays increases in heart rate even at high temperatures (42 °C) in young adults. We here assess the biophysical and physiological mechanisms underlying the apparently beneficial effects of fan use. Eight males (24 ± 3 y; 80.7 ± 11.7 kg; 2.0 ± 0.1 m(2)) rested at either 36 °C or 42 °C, with (F) or without (NF) electric fan use (4.2 m/s) for 120 min while humidity increased every 7.5 min by 0.3 kPa from a baseline value of 1.6 kPa. Heart rate (HR), local sweat rate (LSR), cutaneous vascular conductance (CVC), core and mean skin temperatures, and the combined convective/radiative heat loss (C+R), evaporative heat balance requirements (Ereq) and maximum evaporative potential (Emax) were assessed. C+R was greater with fan use at 36 °C (F 8 ± 6, NF 2 ± 2 W/m(2); P = 0.04) and more negative (greater dry heat gain) with fan use at 42 °C (F -78 ± 4, NF -27 ± 2 W/m(2); P < 0.01). Consequently, Ereq was lower at 36 °C (F 38 ± 16, NF 45 ± 3 W/m(2); P = 0.04) and greater at 42 °C (F 125 ± 1, NF 74 ± 3 W/m(2); P < 0.01) with fan use. However, fan use resulted in a greater Emax at baseline humidity at both 36 °C (F 343 ± 10, NF 153 ± 5 W/m(2); P < 0.01) and 42 °C (F 376 ± 13, NF 161 ± 4 W/m(2); P < 0.01) and throughout the incremental increases in humidity. Within the humidity range that a rise in HR was prevented by fan use but not without a fan, LSR was higher in NF at both 36 °C (P = 0.04) and 42 °C (P = 0.05), and skin temperature was higher in NF at 42 °C (P = 0.05), but no differences in CVC or core temperatures were observed (all P > 0.05). These results suggest that the delayed increase in heart rate with fan use during extreme heat and humidity is associated with improved

  9. Impact of Anthropogenic Land Cover Change on Warm Temperature Extremes : the summer 2003 heat waves as a testbed

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stéfanon, M.

    2013-12-01

    Events similar to the 2003 mega heat wave will be likely more frequent, intense and longer by the end of the 21st century owing to enhanced atmospheric greenhouse-gas concentrations. Policies for climate mitigation privileges carbon sequestration techniques while land cover change (LCC) may be a preferred alternative in terms of environmental impact, where geography permits. Biogeophysical factors such as albedo, evapotranspiration, and surface roughness may have locally the potential to offset the biogeochemical impact of increased greenhouse-gas. However, so far the set of existing (but not consistent) LCC impact studies conducted in the Mediterranean have contradictory results on summer temperature (cooling or warming). Using the Model of the Regional Coupled Earth system (MORCE), the impact of an afforestation scenario (POT) is conducted for both 2002 and 2003 years, and compared to an agricultural scenario (CUR). The favorable meteorological conditions in spring 2003 fasten the development of agricultural vegetation in CUR compared to a) conditions in 2002, and b) to the development of trees in POT. This greater photosynthetic capacity of crops, followed by larger evapotranspiration rates, dampens the extreme values of temperature from April to the end of June 2003 (locally by 3°C) and more specifically during the June heat-wave (locally by 1.6°C). It contributes to increase the differences between POT and CUR in 2003 compared to 2002. In July vegetation starts to get limited by soil moisture, and agricultural plants are most affected than trees because of their shallower roots. From early July to October, trees are not too water limited. They can still evaporate, while water stress in CUR makes croplands contribute to enhance the warm summer temperatures, especially in 2003. The very hot summer 2003 July-August temperatures are therefore amplified (resp. dampened) by the presence of crops (resp. trees) in CUR (resp. POT). However this cooling capacity of

  10. Controversial cytogenetic observations in mammalian somatic cells exposed to extremely low frequency electromagnetic radiation: a review and future research recommendations.

    PubMed

    Vijayalaxmi; Obe, Guenter

    2005-07-01

    During the years 1990-2003, a large number of investigations were conducted using animals, cultured rodent and human cells as well as freshly collected human blood lymphocytes to determine the genotoxic potential of exposure to nonionizing radiation emitted from extremely low frequency electromagnetic fields (EMF). Among the 63 peer reviewed scientific reports, the conclusions from 29 studies (46%) did not indicate increased damage to the genetic material, as assessed from DNA strand breaks, incidence of chromosomal aberrations (CA), micronuclei (MN), and sister chromatid exchanges (SCE), in EMF exposed cells as compared with sham exposed and/or unexposed cells, while those from 14 investigations (22%) have suggested an increase in such damage in EMF exposed cells. The observations from 20 other studies (32%) were inconclusive. This study reviews the investigations published in peer reviewed scientific journals during 1990-2003 and attempts to identify probable reason(s) for the conflicting results. Recommendations are made for future research to address some of the controversial observations.

  11. Thermal Modeling and Analysis of a Cryogenic Tank Design Exposed to Extreme Heating Profiles

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Stephens, Craig A.; Hanna, Gregory J.

    1991-01-01

    A cryogenic test article, the Generic Research Cryogenic Tank, was designed to qualitatively simulate the thermal response of transatmospheric vehicle fuel tanks exposed to the environment of hypersonic flight. One-dimensional and two-dimensional finite-difference thermal models were developed to simulate the thermal response and assist in the design of the Generic Research Cryogenic Tank. The one-dimensional thermal analysis determined the required insulation thickness to meet the thermal design criteria and located the purge jacket to eliminate the liquefaction of air. The two-dimensional thermal analysis predicted the temperature gradients developed within the pressure-vessel wall, estimated the cryogen boiloff, and showed the effects the ullage condition has on pressure-vessel temperatures. The degree of ullage mixing, location of the applied high-temperature profile, and the purge gas influence on insulation thermal conductivity had significant effects on the thermal behavior of the Generic Research Cryogenic Tank. In addition to analysis results, a description of the Generic Research Cryogenic Tank and the role it will play in future thermal structures and transatmospheric vehicle research at the NASA Dryden Flight Research Facility is presented.

  12. Extremes of heat, drought and precipitation depress reproductive performance in shortgrass prairie passerines

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Conrey, Reesa Y.; Skagen, Susan; Yackel, Amy; Panjabi, Arvind O.

    2016-01-01

    Climate change elevates conservation concerns worldwide because it is likely to exacerbate many identified threats to animal populations. In recent decades, grassland birds have declined faster than other North American bird species, a loss thought to be due to habitat loss and fragmentation and changing agricultural practices. Climate change poses additional threats of unknown magnitude to these already declining populations. We examined how seasonal and daily weather conditions over 10 years influenced nest survival of five species of insectivorous passerines native to the shortgrass prairie and evaluate our findings relative to future climate predictions for this region. Daily nest survival (n = 870) was best predicted by a combination of daily and seasonal weather variables, age of nest, time in season and bird habitat guild. Within a season, survival rates were lower on very hot days (temperatures ≥ 35 °C), on dry days (with a lag of 1 day) and on stormy days (especially for those species nesting in shorter vegetation). Across years, survival rates were also lower during warmer and drier breeding seasons. Clutch sizes were larger when early spring temperatures were cool and the week prior to egg-laying was wetter and warming. Climate change is likely to exacerbate grassland bird population declines because projected climate conditions include rising temperatures, more prolonged drought and more intense storms as the hydrological cycle is altered. Under varying realistic scenarios, nest success estimates were halved compared to their current average value when models both increased the temperature (3 °C) and decreased precipitation (two additional dry days during a nesting period), thus underscoring a sense of urgency in identifying and addressing the current causes of range-wide declines.

  13. Southern Ocean heat and carbon uptake: mechanisms, recent trends, and future changes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Froelicher, T. L.

    2015-12-01

    The Southern Ocean's dominant influence on the global heat balance and nutrient and carbon cycles stems from the fact that it is the primary gateway through which Earth's cold, centuries old and nutrient rich deep and bottom waters interact with the atmosphere. The westerly winds in the Southern Hemisphere drive a strongly divergent surface flow that draws up water from below in a wide ring circling the Antarctic continent. In the first part of the talk, we assess the uptake, transport, and storage of oceanic anthropogenic carbon and heat in the Southern Ocean over the period 1861-2005 in a new set of carbon-climate Earth System Models. Simulations show that the Southern Ocean south of 30°S, covering only 30% of the global surface ocean area, accounts for more than 40% of global anthropogenic carbon uptake. Furthermore, the Southern Ocean takes up three quarters of the total excess heat generated by the increasing levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Anthropogenic carbon and heat storage show a common broad-scale pattern of change, but ocean heat storage is more structured than ocean carbon storage suggesting that different mechanisms are important. The Southern Ocean, however, remains the region where models differ the most in the representation of anthropogenic carbon and, in particular, heat uptake. While the Southern Ocean carbon uptake has increased considerably in recent decades, as expected based on the substantial increase in atmospheric CO2, there is considerable concern that this sink will saturate or even reverse in response to warming, changing ocean circulation and chemistry. In the second part of the talk, novel multi-millennial global warming simulations with a comprehensive Earth System Model under a 1% yr-1 atmospheric CO2 increase to 2xCO2 and constant forcing thereafter scenario will be used to explore future long-term changes in the Southern Ocean carbon uptake. We show that after full equilibration of the model with doubling of

  14. Intraday evaporation and heat fluxes variation at air-water interface of extremely shallow lakes in Chilean Andean Plateau

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vergara, Jaime; de la Fuente, Alberto

    2016-04-01

    Salars are landscapes formed by evapo-concentration of salts that usually have extremely shallow terminal lagoons (de la Fuente & Niño, 2010). They are located in the altiplanic region of the Andes Mountains of Chile, Argentina, Bolivia and Peru, and they sustain highly vulnerable and isolated ecosystems in the Andean Desert. These ecosystems are sustained by benthic primary production, which is directly linked to mass, heat and momentum transfer between the water column and the atmosphere (de la Fuente, 2014). Despite the importance of these transport processes across the air-water interface, there are few studies describing their intraday variation and how they are influenced by the stability of the atmospheric boundary layer in the altiplano. The main objective of this work is to analyze the intraday vertical transport variation of water vapor, temperature and momentum between the atmosphere and a shallow water body on Salar del Huasco located in northern Chile (20°19'40"S, 68°51'25"W). To achieve this goal, we measured atmospheric and water variables in a campaign realized on late October 2015, using high frequency meteorological instruments (a sonic anemometer with an incorporated infrared gas analyzer, and a standard meteorological station) and water sensors. From these data, we characterize the intraday variation of water vapor, temperature and momentum fluxes, we quantify the influence of the atmospheric boundary layer stability on them, and we estimate transfer coefficients associated to latent heat, sensible heat, hydrodynamic drag and vertical transport of water vapor. As first results, we found that latent and sensible heat fluxes are highly influenced by wind speed rather buoyancy, and we can identify four intraday intervals with different thermo-hydrodynamic features: (1) cooling under stable condition with wind speed near 0 from midnight until sunrise; (2) free convection with nearly no wind speed under unstable condition from sunrise until midday

  15. Estimation and Uncertainty Analysis of Impacts of Future Heat Waves on Mortality in the Eastern United States

    SciTech Connect

    Wu, Jianyong; Zhou, Ying; Gao, Yang; Fu, Joshua S.; Johnson, Brent; Huang, Cheng; Kim, Young-Min; Liu, Yang

    2014-01-01

    Background: It is anticipated that climate change will influence heat-related mortality in the future. However, the estimation of excess mortality attributable to future heat waves is subject to large uncertainties, which have not been examined under the latest greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Objectives: We estimated the future heat wave impact on mortality in the eastern United States (~ 1,700 counties) under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and analyzed the sources of uncertainties. Methods Using dynamically downscaled hourly temperature projections in 2057-2059, we calculated heat wave days and episodes based on four heat wave metrics, and estimated the excess mortality attributable to them. The sources of uncertainty in estimated excess mortality were apportioned using a variance-decomposition method. Results: In the eastern U.S., the excess mortality attributable to heat waves could range from 200-7,807 with the mean of 2,379 persons/year in 2057-2059. The projected average excess mortality in RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios was 1,403 and 3,556 persons/year, respectively. Excess mortality would be relatively high in the southern and eastern coastal areas. The major sources of uncertainty in the estimates are relative risk of heat wave mortality, the RCP scenarios, and the heat wave definitions. Conclusions: The estimated mortality risks from future heat waves are likely an order of magnitude higher than its current level and lead to thousands of deaths each year under the RCP8.5 scenario. The substantial spatial variability in estimated county-level heat mortality suggests that effective mitigation and adaptation measures should be developed based on spatially resolved data.

  16. Black holes, formation of structure, and extreme physics: the present and future of X-ray astrophysics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kraft, Ralph; Bautz, Mark

    2017-01-01

    X-ray astrophysics lies at the conjunction of many of the big picture questions we have about our Universe. We detect X-rays from supermassive black holes when the Universe was 7% of its present age, just after the formation of the first galaxies. Most of the baryons in the Universe are in clusters or in the filaments between collapsed structures heated to X-ray emitting temperatures. X-ray studies of the evolution of these collapsed structures provide strong constraints on cosmological parameters. Studies by future X-ray observatories of this hot filamentary gas between clusters and of halos of galaxies will provide unique windows in the processes of the early universe and formation of structure. In this presentation, we discuss the current state of X-ray astrophysics. We will present the status of and recent science highlights from the current generation of X-ray observatories. We will outline the scientific potential for missions that will soon be launched including NICER, eRosita, and a potential refly of the Hitomi mission, as well as longer term missions such as the European L2 Athena mission. Finally, we will summarize the status of the X-ray Surveyor, one of the four large mission concepts under study prior to the 2020 Astrophysics Decadal Review.

  17. Anthropogenic changes to seawater buffer capacity combined with natural reef metabolism induce extreme future coral reef CO2 conditions.

    PubMed

    Shaw, Emily C; McNeil, Ben I; Tilbrook, Bronte; Matear, Richard; Bates, Michael L

    2013-05-01

    Ocean acidification, via an anthropogenic increase in seawater carbon dioxide (CO2 ), is potentially a major threat to coral reefs and other marine ecosystems. However, our understanding of how natural short-term diurnal CO2 variability in coral reefs influences longer term anthropogenic ocean acidification remains unclear. Here, we combine observed natural carbonate chemistry variability with future carbonate chemistry predictions for a coral reef flat in the Great Barrier Reef based on the RCP8.5 CO2 emissions scenario. Rather than observing a linear increase in reef flat partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2 ) in concert with rising atmospheric concentrations, the inclusion of in situ diurnal variability results in a highly nonlinear threefold amplification of the pCO2 signal by the end of the century. This significant nonlinear amplification of diurnal pCO2 variability occurs as a result of combining natural diurnal biological CO2 metabolism with long-term decreases in seawater buffer capacity, which occurs via increasing anthropogenic CO2 absorption by the ocean. Under the same benthic community composition, the amplification in the variability in pCO2 is likely to lead to exposure to mean maximum daily pCO2 levels of ca. 2100 μatm, with corrosive conditions with respect to aragonite by end-century at our study site. Minimum pCO2 levels will become lower relative to the mean offshore value (ca. threefold increase in the difference between offshore and minimum reef flat pCO2 ) by end-century, leading to a further increase in the pCO2 range that organisms are exposed to. The biological consequences of short-term exposure to these extreme CO2 conditions, coupled with elevated long-term mean CO2 conditions are currently unknown and future laboratory experiments will need to incorporate natural variability to test this. The amplification of pCO2 that we describe here is not unique to our study location, but will occur in all shallow coastal environments where high

  18. Computed and observed turbulent heat fluxes during an extreme Bora event in the Adriatic using atmosphere-ocean coupling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ličer, Matjaž; Smerkol, Peter; Fettich, Anja; Ravdas, Michalis; Papapostolou, Alexandros; Mantziafou, Anneta; Strajnar, Benedikt; Cedilnik, Jure; Jeromel, Maja; Jerman, Jure; Petan, Sašo; Benetazzo, Alvise; Carniel, Sandro; Malačič, Vlado; Sofianos, Sarantis

    2016-04-01

    We have studied the performances of (a) a two-way coupled atmosphere-ocean modeling system and (b) one-way coupled ocean model (forced by the atmosphere model), as compared to the available in situ measurements during and after a strong Adriatic Bora wind event in February 2012, which led to extreme air-sea interactions. The simulations span the period between January and March 2012. The models used were ALADIN (4.4 km resolution) on the atmosphere side and Adriatic setup of POM (1°/30 × 1°/30 angular resolution) on the ocean side. The atmosphere-ocean coupling was implemented using the OASIS3-MCT model coupling toolkit. Two-way coupling ocean feedback to the atmosphere is limited to sea surface temperature. We have compared modeled atmosphere-ocean fluxes (computed using modified Louis scheme) and sea temperatures from both setups to platform and CTD measurements of fluxes (computed using COARE scheme) and temperatures from three observational platforms (Vida, Paloma, Acqua Alta) in the Northern Adriatic. We show that turbulent fluxes from both setups differ up to 20% during the Bora but not significantly before and after the event. The impact of the coupling on the ocean is significant while the impact on the atmosphere is less pronounced. When compared to observations, two way coupling ocean temperatures exhibit a four times lower RMSE than those from one-way coupled system. Two-way coupling improves sensible heat fluxes at all stations but does not improve latent heat loss.

  19. Exposure to extreme heat events is associated with increased hay fever prevalence among nationally represntatvie sample of us, Adults: 1997-2013

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Warmer temperature can alter seasonality of pollen as well as pollen concentration, and may impact allergic diseases such as hay fever. Recent studies suggest that extreme heat events will likely increase in frequency, intensity, and duration in coming decades. The overall objective of this study i...

  20. Pelletization and encapsulation of general purpose heat source (GPHS) fueled clads for future space missions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barklay, Chadwick D.; Miller, Roger G.; Malikh, Y.; Kalinovsky, A.; Aldoshin, A.

    1996-03-01

    Mankind must continue to explore the universe in order to gain a better understanding of how we relate to it and how we can best use its resources to our benefit. Because of the significant costs of this type of exploration, it can more effectively be accomplished through an international team effort. This unified effort must include the design, planning, and execution phases of future space missions, extending down to such activities as the processing, pelletization, and encapsulation of the fuel that will be used to support the spacecraft electrical power generation systems. Over the last 30 years, radioisotopes have provided heat from which electrical power is generated. For space missions, the isotope of choice has generally been 238PuO2, its long half-life making it ideal for supplying power to remote satellites and spacecraft like the Voyager, Pioneer, and Viking missions, as well as the recently launched Galileo and Ulysses missions, and the presently planned Cassini mission. Electric power for future space missions will be provided by either radioisotopic thermoelectric generators (RTG), radioisotope thermophotovoltaic systems (RTPV), radioisotope Stirling systems or a combination of these. However, all of the aforementioned systems will be thermally driven by General-Purpose Heat Source (GPHS) fueled clads in some configuration. Each GPHS fueled clad contains a 150-gram pellet of 238PuO2, and each pellet is encapsulated within an iridium-alloy shell. Historically, the fabrication of the iridium-alloy shells has been performed at EG&G Mound, and Oak Ridge National Laboratory, and the girth welding of the GPHS capsules has been performed at Westinghouse Savannah River Corporation, and Los Alamos National Laboratory. This paper describes a cost effective alternative method for the production of GPHS capsules. Fundamental considerations such as the potential production options, the associated support activities, and the methodology to transport the welded

  1. Assessing risks from drought and heat stress in productive grasslands under present and future climatic conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Calanca, Pierluigi; Mosimann, Eric; Meisser, Marco; Deléglise, Claire

    2014-05-01

    Grasslands cover the majority of the world's agricultural area, provide the feedstock for animal production, contribute to the economy of farms, and deliver a variety of ecological and societal services. Assessing responses of grassland ecosystems to climate change, in particular climate-related risks, is therefore an important step toward identifying adaptation options necessary to secure grassland functioning and productivity. Of particular concern are risks in relation to drought and extreme temperatures, on the one hand because grasslands are very sensitive to water stress, on the other hand also because global warming is expected to increase the occurrence and intensity of these events in many agricultural areas of the world. In this contribution we review findings of ongoing experimental and modelling activities that aim at examining the implications of climate extremes and climate change for grassland vegetation dynamics and herbage productivity. Data collected at the Jura foot in western Switzerland indicate that water scarcity and associated anomalous temperatures slowed plant development in relation to both the summer drought of 2003 as well as the spring drought of 2011, with decline in annual yields of up to 40%. Further effects of drought found from the analysis of recent field trials explicitly designed to study the effects of different water management regimes are changes in the functional composition and nutritive value of grasslands. Similar responses are disclosed by simulations with a process based grassland ecosystem model that was originally developed for the simulation of mixed grass/clover swards. Simulations driven with historical weather records from the Swiss Plateau suggest that drought and extreme temperature could represent one of the main reasons for the observed yield variability in productive systems. Simulations with climate change scenarios further reveal important changes in ecosystem dynamics for the current century. The results

  2. Influence of land-atmosphere feedbacks on climate extreme indices in a multi-model experiment under present and future conditions (GLACE-CMIP5)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lorenz, Ruth; Pitman, Andy; Seneviratne, Sonia

    2014-05-01

    Extreme events can be directly influenced by land surface-atmosphere interactions. It is important to investigate how extreme events might change in the future and the role these interactions play in amplifying extremes. The data from the GLACE-CMIP5 experiments (Seneviratne et al., 2013) provide a unique opportunity to examine the influence of soil moisture on extremes in transient climate simulations from a range of climate models. The extreme indices we use are defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) and contain a range of indices based on daily minimum and maximum temperature as well as daily precipitation. The ETCCDI indices are available from observational datasets, reanalysis and as well as CMIP5 runs. Hence, these indices are widely used and can be compared to other sources. In this paper, we analyze the effects of land surface feedbacks on the extremes and their trends in the different global climate models. Seneviratne, S. I., et al. (2013). Impact of soil moisture-climate feedbacks on CMIP5 projections: First results from the GLACE-CMIP5 experiment. GRL, 40(19), 5212-5217. doi:10.1002/grl.50956

  3. The extreme drought episode of August 2011-May 2012: A scenario for future droughts in Central Europe?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zahradníček, P.; Trnka, M.; Brázdil, R.; Mozny, M.; Stepanek, P.; Hlavinka, P.; Malý, A.; Dubrovsky, M.

    2014-12-01

    The weather conditions from August 2011 to May 2012 produced an extreme drought in the eastern Czech Republic (Moravia), whereas the patterns were nearly normal in its western region (Bohemia). The Southern and Central Moravia regions, which represent the most important agricultural areas, were most affected by the drought. The precipitation totals for the studied period were 50% to 70% of the long-term mean, which was calculated for 1961-2000. In autumn 2011, the total precipitation accounted for 10% to 30% of the long-term mean for most of Moravia, increasing to 30% to 50% in spring 2012. Moreover, 7.5% of the Czech Republic experienced a 100-year drought; 20% of the country experienced a 20-year drought. According to the Palmer Drought Severity Index, the 2012 drought was classified as the worst in the past 130 years. The drought patterns were related to the prevailing high-pressure systems over Central Europe and the occurrence of weather types with different precipitation amounts in Bohemia and Moravia. The most substantial drought effects occurred in the agricultural sector. A decrease in cereal yields was observed in the analyzed production areas in Moravia, which was unprecedented in the past 52 years. Moreover, winter crops were affected more than spring crops. An increased risk of fire occurred due to the drought conditions; the largest forest fire in the past 15 years was recorded during this period. Furthermore, signs of hydrological drought were also reported in rivers. The 2011-2012 drought was compared with the significant droughts in 2000, 2003 and 2007. Austria and Slovakia, which neighbor the Czech Republic, experienced a similar drought. This drought analysis can be used as a scenario for future droughts and their impacts in Central Europe due to the global warming projected by GCMs.Acknowledgements:This study was made possible by the generous support of the "Establishment of International Scientific Team Focused on Drought Research" project (no

  4. Downscaling future precipitation extremes to urban hydrology scales using a spatio-temporal Neyman-Scott weather generator

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jomo Danielsen Sørup, Hjalte; Bøssing Christensen, Ole; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Steen Mikkelsen, Peter

    2016-04-01

    Spatio-temporal precipitation is modelled for urban application at 1 h temporal resolution on a 2 km grid using a spatio-temporal Neyman-Scott rectangular pulses weather generator (WG). Precipitation time series used as input to the WG are obtained from a network of 60 tipping-bucket rain gauges irregularly placed in a 40 km × 60 km model domain. The WG simulates precipitation time series that are comparable to the observations with respect to extreme precipitation statistics. The WG is used for downscaling climate change signals from regional climate models (RCMs) with spatial resolutions of 25 and 8 km, respectively. Six different RCM simulation pairs are used to perturb the WG with climate change signals resulting in six very different perturbation schemes. All perturbed WGs result in more extreme precipitation at the sub-daily to multi-daily level and these extremes exhibit a much more realistic spatial pattern than what is observed in RCM precipitation output. The WG seems to correlate increased extreme intensities with an increased spatial extent of the extremes meaning that the climate-change-perturbed extremes have a larger spatial extent than those of the present climate. Overall, the WG produces robust results and is seen as a reliable procedure for downscaling RCM precipitation output for use in urban hydrology.

  5. Downscaling future precipitation extremes to urban hydrology scales using a spatio-temporal Neyman-Scott weather generator

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sørup, H. J. D.; Christensen, O. B.; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K.; Mikkelsen, P. S.

    2015-02-01

    Spatio-temporal precipitation is modelled for urban application at 1 h temporal resolution on a 2 km grid using a Spatio-Temporal Neyman-Scott Rectangular Pulses weather generator (WG). Precipitation time series for fitting the model are obtained from a network of 60 tipping-bucket rain gauges irregularly placed in a 40 by 60 km model domain. The model simulates precipitation time series that are comparable to the observations with respect to extreme precipitation statistics. The WG is used for downscaling climate change signals from Regional Climate Models (RCMs) with spatial resolutions of 25 and 8 km respectively. Six different RCM simulations are used to perturb the WG with climate change signals resulting in six very different perturbation schemes. All perturbed WGs result in more extreme precipitation at the sub-daily to multi-daily level and these extremes exhibit a much more realistic spatial pattern than what is observed in RCM precipitation output. The WG seems to correlate increased extreme intensities with an increased spatial extent of the extremes meaning that the climate-change-perturbed extremes have a larger spatial extent than those of the present climate. Overall, the WG produces robust results and is seen as a reliable procedure for downscaling RCM precipitation output for use in urban hydrology.

  6. Projection of the change in future extremes over Japan using a cloud-resolving model: (2) Precipitation Extremes and the results of the NHM-1km experiments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kanada, S.; Nakano, M.; Nakamura, M.; Hayashi, S.; Kato, T.; Kurihara, K.; Sasaki, H.; Uchiyama, T.; Aranami, K.; Honda, Y.; Kitoh, A.

    2008-12-01

    In order to study changes in the regional climate in the vicinity of Japan during the summer rainy season due to global warming, experiments by a semi-cloud resolving non-hydrostatic model with a horizontal resolution of 5km (NHM-5km) have been conducted from June to October by nesting within the results of the 10-year time-integrated experiments using a hydrostatic atmospheric general circulation model with a horizontal grid of 20 km (AGCM-20km: TL959L60) for the present and future up to the year 2100. A non-hydrostatic model developed by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) (JMA-NHM; Saito et al. 2001, 2006) was adopted. Detailed descriptions of the NHM-5km are shown by the poster of Nakano et al. Our results show that rainy days over most of the Japanese Islands will decrease in June and July and increase in August and September in the future climate. Especially, remarkable increases in intense precipitations such as larger than 150 - 300 mm/day are projected from the present to future climate. The 90th percentiles of regional largest values among maximum daily precipitations (R-MDPs) grow 156 to 207 mm/day in the present and future climates, respectively. It is well-known that the horizontal distribution of precipitation, especially the heavy rainfall in the vicinity of Japan, much depends on the topography. Therefore, higher resolution experiments by a cloud-resolving model with a horizontal resolution of 1km (NHM-1km) are one-way nested within the results of NHM-5km. The basic frame and design of the NHM-1km is the same as those of the NHM-5km, but the topography is finer and no cumulus parameterization is used in the NHM-1km experiments. The NHM-1km, which treats the convection and cloud microphysics explicitly, can represent not only horizontal distributions of rainfall in detail but also the 3-dimensional structures of meso-beta-scale convective systems (MCSs). Because of the limitation of computation resources, only heavy rainfall events that rank in top

  7. The contribution of urbanization to recent extreme heat events and white roof mitigation strategy in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei metropolitan area

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Mingna

    2015-04-01

    The UHI effect can aggravate summertime heat waves and strongly influence human comfort and health, leading to greater mortality in metropolitan areas. Many geo-engineering technological strategies have been proposed to mitigate climate warming, and for the UHI, increasing the albedo of artificial urban surfaces (rooftops or pavements) has been considered a lucrative and effective way to cool cities. The objective of this work is to quantify the contribution of urbanization to recent extreme heat events of the early 21st century in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei metropolitan area, using the mesoscale WRF model coupled with a single urban canopy model and actual urban land cover datasets. This work also investigates a simulation of the regional effects of white roof technology by increasing the albedo of urban areas in the urban canopy model to mitigate the urban heat island, especially in extreme heat waves. The results show that urban land use characteristics that have evolved over the past ~20 years in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei metropolitan area have had a significant impact on the extreme temperatures occurring during extreme heat events. Simulations show that new urban development has caused an intensification and expansion of the areas experiencing extreme heat waves with an average increase in temperature of approximately 0.60°C. This change is most obvious at night with an increase up to 0.95°C, for which the total contribution of anthropogenic heat is 34%. We also simulate the effects of geo-engineering strategies increasing the albedo of urban roofs. White roofs reflect a large fraction of incoming sunlight in the daytime, which reduced the net radiation so that the roof surface keep at a lower temperature than regular solar-absorptive roofs. Urban net radiation decreases by approximately 200 W m-2 at local noon because of high solar reflectance of white roofs, which cools the daytime urban temperature afer sunrise, with the largest decrease of almost -0.80

  8. Influence of Solar and Thermal Radiation on Future Heat Stress Using CMIP5 Archive Driving the Community Land Model Version 4.5

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Buzan, J. R.; Huber, M.

    2015-12-01

    The summer of 2015 has experienced major heat waves on 4 continents, and heat stress left ~4000 people dead in India and Pakistan. Heat stress is caused by a combination of meteorological factors: temperature, humidity, and radiation. The International Organization for Standardization (ISO) uses Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT)—an empirical metric this is calibrated with temperature, humidity, and radiation—for determining labor capacity during heat stress. Unfortunately, most literature studying global heat stress focuses on extreme temperature events, and a limited number of studies use the combination of temperature and humidity. Recent global assessments use WBGT, yet omit the radiation component without recalibrating the metric.Here we explicitly calculate future WBGT within a land surface model, including radiative fluxes as produced by a modeled globe thermometer. We use the Community Land Model version 4.5 (CLM4.5), which is a component model of the Community Earth System Model (CESM), and is maintained by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). To drive our CLM4.5 simulations, we use greenhouse gasses Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (business as usual), and atmospheric output from the CMIP5 Archive. Humans work in a variety of environments, and we place the modeled globe thermometer in a variety of environments. We modify CLM4.5 code to calculate solar and thermal radiation fluxes below and above canopy vegetation, and in bare ground. To calculate wet bulb temperature, we implemented the HumanIndexMod into CLM4.5. The temperature, wet bulb temperature, and radiation fields are calculated at every model time step and are outputted 4x Daily. We use these fields to calculate WBGT and labor capacity for two time slices: 2026-2045 and 2081-2100.

  9. Liquid droplet radiator development status. [waste heat rejection devices for future space vehicles

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    White, K. Alan, III

    1987-01-01

    Development of the Liquid Droplet Radiator (LDR) is described. Significant published results of previous investigators are presented, and work currently in progress is discussed. Several proposed LDR configurations are described, and the rectangular and triangular configurations currently of most interest are examined. Development of the droplet generator, collector, and auxiliary components are discussed. Radiative performance of a droplet sheet is considered, and experimental results are seen to be in very good agreement with analytical predictions. The collision of droplets in the droplet sheet, the charging of droplets by the space plasma, and the effect of atmospheric drag on the droplet sheet are shown to be of little consequence, or can be minimized by proper design. The LDR is seen to be less susceptible than conventional technology to the effects of micrometeoroids or hostile threats. The identification of working fluids which are stable in the orbital environments of interest is also made. Methods for reducing spacecraft contamination from an LDR to an acceptable level are discussed. Preliminary results of microgravity testing of the droplet generator are presented. Possible future NASA and Air Force missions enhanced or enabled by a LDR are also discussed. System studies indicate that the LDR is potentially less massive than heat pipe radiators. Planned microgravity testing aboard the Shuttle or space station is seen to be a logical next step in LDR development.

  10. Quantifying and Reducing the Uncertainties in Future Projections of Droughts and Heat Waves for North America that Result from the Diversity of Models in CMIP5

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Herrera-Estrada, J. E.; Sheffield, J.

    2014-12-01

    There are many sources of uncertainty regarding the future projections of our climate, including the multiple possible Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), the variety of climate models used, and the initial and boundary conditions with which they are run. Moreover, it has been shown that the internal variability of the climate system can sometimes be of the same order of magnitude as the climate change signal or even larger for some variables. Nonetheless, in order to help inform stakeholders in water resources and agriculture in North America when developing adaptation strategies, particularly for extreme events such as droughts and heat waves, it is necessary to study the plausible range of changes that the region might experience during the 21st century. We aim to understand and reduce the uncertainties associated with this range of possible scenarios by focusing on the diversity of climate models involved in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Data output from various CMIP5 models is compared against near surface climate and land-surface hydrological data from the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS)-2 to evaluate how well each climate model represents the land-surface processes associated with droughts and heat waves during the overlapping historical period (1979-2005). These processes include the representation of precipitation and radiation and their partitioning at the land surface, land-atmosphere interactions, and the propagation of signals of these extreme events through the land surface. The ability of the CMIP5 models to reproduce these important physical processes for regions of North America is used to inform a multi-model ensemble in which models that represent the processes relevant to droughts and heat waves better are given more importance. Furthermore, the future projections are clustered to identify possible dependencies in behavior across models. The results indicate a wide range in performance

  11. Futurism.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Foy, Jane Loring

    The objectives of this research report are to gain insight into the main problems of the future and to ascertain the attitudes that the general population has toward the treatment of these problems. In the first section of this report the future is explored socially, psychologically, and environmentally. The second section describes the techniques…

  12. Urban population vulnerability to climate extremes: mitigating urban heat through technology and water-sensitive urban design in Australian cities (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tapper, N. J.

    2013-12-01

    Australia recently endured what was arguably its worst drought in 200 years. The 'Millennium Drought' lasted from 1999 until 2009, producing acute water shortages for several major Australian cities. Towards the end of the drought an extreme heat wave with temperatures approaching 50 C claimed the lives of several hundred people in Melbourne and Adelaide. One outcome of the extreme conditions was that the spectre of climate change and its impacts became very real for most Australians and contributed to the 2007 signing of the Kyoto Protocol by the Australian Government. Issues of extreme heat and water security also led to increased interest in adapting Australian cities to climate change. These concerns ultimately led to the establishment of the Australian Cooperative Research Centre (CRC) for Water Sensitive Cities, a $110 million research initiative to utilise storm water in Australian cities to create cooler and more liveable environments with increased levels of water security. This paper provides an overview of the work being undertaken within the urban climate program of the CRC to identify heat-health vulnerability in our cities and to evaluate the efficacy of irrigated green infrastructure to produce more liveable environments. This papers discusses some of the early research outputs that involve measurement, modelling and remote sensing at a range of scales in Australian cities.

  13. Responses of the bed bug, Cimex lectularius, to temperature extremes and dehydration: levels of tolerance, rapid cold hardening and expression of heat shock proteins.

    PubMed

    Benoit, J B; Lopez-Martinez, G; Teets, N M; Phillips, S A; Denlinger, D L

    2009-12-01

    This study of the bed bug, Cimex lectularius, examines tolerance of adult females to extremes in temperature and loss of body water. Although the supercooling point (SCP) of the bed bugs was approximately -20 degrees C, all were killed by a direct 1 h exposure to -16 degrees C. Thus, this species cannot tolerate freezing and is killed at temperatures well above its SCP. Neither cold acclimation at 4 degrees C for 2 weeks nor dehydration (15% loss of water content) enhanced cold tolerance. However, bed bugs have the capacity for rapid cold hardening, i.e. a 1-h exposure to 0 degrees C improved their subsequent tolerance of -14 and -16 degrees C. In response to heat stress, fewer than 20% of the bugs survived a 1-h exposure to 46 degrees C, and nearly all were killed at 48 degrees C. Dehydration, heat acclimation at 30 degrees C for 2 weeks and rapid heat hardening at 37 degrees C for 1 h all failed to improve heat tolerance. Expression of the mRNAs encoding two heat shock proteins (Hsps), Hsp70 and Hsp90, was elevated in response to heat stress, cold stress and during dehydration and rehydration. The response of Hsp90 was more pronounced than that of Hsp70 during dehydration and rehydration. Our results define the tolerance limits for bed bugs to these commonly encountered stresses of temperature and low humidity and indicate a role for Hsps in responding to these stresses.

  14. Management of climatic heat stress risk in construction: a review of practices, methodologies, and future research.

    PubMed

    Rowlinson, Steve; Yunyanjia, Andrea; Li, Baizhan; Chuanjingju, Carrie

    2014-05-01

    Climatic heat stress leads to accidents on construction sites brought about by a range of human factors emanating from heat induced illness, and fatigue leading to impaired capability, physical and mental. It is an occupational characteristic of construction work in many climates and the authors take the approach of re-engineering the whole safety management system rather than focusing on incremental improvement, which is current management practice in the construction industry. From a scientific viewpoint, climatic heat stress is determined by six key factors: (1) air temperature, (2) humidity, (3) radiant heat, and (4) wind speed indicating the environment, (5) metabolic heat generated by physical activities, and (6) "clothing effect" that moderates the heat exchange between the body and the environment. By making use of existing heat stress indices and heat stress management processes, heat stress risk on construction sites can be managed in three ways: (1) control of environmental heat stress exposure through use of an action-triggering threshold system, (2) control of continuous work time (CWT, referred by maximum allowable exposure duration) with mandatory work-rest regimens, and (3) enabling self-paced working through empowerment of employees. Existing heat stress practices and methodologies are critically reviewed and the authors propose a three-level methodology for an action-triggering, localized, simplified threshold system to facilitate effective decisions by frontline supervisors. The authors point out the need for "regional based" heat stress management practices that reflect unique climatic conditions, working practices and acclimatization propensity by local workers indifferent geographic regions. The authors set out the case for regional, rather than international, standards that account for this uniqueness and which are derived from site-based rather than laboratory-based research.

  15. The contribution to future flood risk in the Severn Estuary from extreme sea level rise due to ice sheet mass loss

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Quinn, N.; Bates, P. D.; Siddall, M.

    2013-11-01

    In this paper, we assess the risk of future coastal flooding in the Severn Estuary, examining the contribution from low probability extreme sea level rise scenarios resulting from the possibility of increased rates of ice sheet mass loss in the coming century. A simple asymmetric probability distribution is constructed to include sea level rise scenarios of up to 1.9 m by 2100, based on recent assessments of future sea level rise in the UK. A regular sampling procedure, sampling every 1 mm, is used to increase the boundary water levels associated with a current 1:200 year event to force a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model of coastal inundation to examine the influence of sea level rise on inundation of the Somerset Levels region. From the resulting ensemble of predictions an estimation of risk (conditioned upon the hazard and the probability of occurrence) by 2100 is established. The results indicate that although the likelihood of extreme sea level rise due to rapid ice sheet mass loss is low, the resulting hazard can be large, resulting in a significant (29.7%) increase to the projected risk. These findings clearly demonstrate that uncertainty in future sea level rise, mostly associated with the rate of ice sheet mass loss, is a vital component of coastal flood risk, and therefore, needs to be accounted for by decision makers when considering mitigation policies related to coastal flooding.

  16. Comparison of statistical and dynamical downscaling of extreme precipitations over France in present-day and future climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Colin, Jeanne; Déqué, Michel; Sanchez Gomez, Emila; Somot, Samuel

    2010-05-01

    We present a comparison of two downscaling methods of extreme precipitations over France at a climatic time scale : a dynamical one performed with the Regional Climate Model ALADIN-Climate used at a resolution of 12 km, and a statistical one based on the weather regime approach and using the analog methodology to reconstruct daily fields of precipitations at a 8 km resolution. We focus on the most heavy precipitations of the area of interest, which occur in southeastern France in Autumn. Those involve small-scale processes than can be explicitly resolved only with 2-1 km resolution non-hydrostatic models. However, such models can not be used for climate simulations because of their computational cost is still too high. Yet these extreme events cause rather heavy damages, so that their possible evolution in the context of climate change is of great concern. Thus, there is strong need in assessing downscaling methods' ability to represent them. First, we downscale the low-resolution ERA40 re-analysis over the 1958-2000 time period with ALADIN-Climate, and from the year 1980 to the year 2000 with the statistical method. Then, we apply a quantile-quantile correction to the daily precipitations of the last twenty years of the ALADIN-Climate simulation. The correction rates are computed over the first part of the simulation (1958-1979) using a high-resolution gridded database : the SAFRAN analysis, which provides series of hourly fields for the 1958-2008 period over the french territory at a 8 km resolution. We assess the performances of each downscaling method in present-day climate by comparing the simulated precipitations to the SAFRAN database. The use of the ERA40 re-analysis allows to reproduce the real chronology in both downscalings, which enables to analyze the results not only from a statistical point of view but also through day-to-day diagnosis such as time correlations or spatial patterns of rain for given extreme events. Secondly, we apply these downscaling

  17. A comparison of whole body vibration and moist heat on lower extremity skin temperature and skin blood flow in healthy older individuals

    PubMed Central

    Lohman, Everett B.; Sackiriyas, Kanikkai Steni Balan; Bains, Gurinder S.; Calandra, Giovanni; Lobo, Crystal; Nakhro, Daniel; Malthankar, Gauri; Paul, Sherwine

    2012-01-01

    Summary Background Tissue healing is an intricate process that is regulated by circulation. Heat modalities have been shown to improve skin circulation. Recent research supports that passive vibration increases circulation without risk of burns. Study purpose is to compare and determine effects of short duration vibration, moist heat, and a combination of the two on skin blood flow (SBF) and skin temperature (ST) in elderly, non-diabetic individuals following short-term exposure. Material/Methods Ten subjects, 3 female and 7 male (55–73 years of age), received two interventions over three days: 1 – Active vibration, 2 – passive vibration, 3 – moist heat, 4 – moist heat combined with passive vibration (MHPV), 5 – a commercial massaging heating pad, and 6 – no intervention. SBF and ST were measured using a MOOR Laser Doppler before and after the intervention and the third measurement were taken 10 minutes following. Results Mean SBF following a ten-minute intervention were significantly different in the combination of moist heat and passive vibration from the control, active vibration, and the commercial massaging heating pad. Compared to baseline measurements, this resulted in mean SBF elevation to 450% (at conclusion of 10 minutes of intervention) and 379% (10 minutes post). MHPV (p=0.02) showed significant changes in ST from the commercial massaging heating pad, passive vibration, and active vibration interventions. Conclusions SBF in the lower legs showed greatest increase with MHPV. Interventions should be selected that are low risk while increasing lower extremity skin blood flow. PMID:22739731

  18. Uncertainty and extreme events in future climate and hydrologic projections for the Pacific Northwest: providing a basis for vulnerability and core/corridor assessments

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Littell, Jeremy S.; Mauger, Guillaume S.; Salathe, Eric P.; Hamlet, Alan F.; Lee, Se-Yeun; Stumbaugh, Matt R.; Elsner, Marketa; Norheim, Robert; Lutz, Eric R.; Mantua, Nathan J.

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this project was to (1) provide an internally-consistent set of downscaled projections across the Western U.S., (2) include information about projection uncertainty, and (3) assess projected changes of hydrologic extremes. These objectives were designed to address decision support needs for climate adaptation and resource management actions. Specifically, understanding of uncertainty in climate projections – in particular for extreme events – is currently a key scientific and management barrier to adaptation planning and vulnerability assessment. The new dataset fills in the Northwest domain to cover a key gap in the previous dataset, adds additional projections (both from other global climate models and a comparison with dynamical downscaling) and includes an assessment of changes to flow and soil moisture extremes. This new information can be used to assess variations in impacts across the landscape, uncertainty in projections, and how these differ as a function of region, variable, and time period. In this project, existing University of Washington Climate Impacts Group (UW CIG) products were extended to develop a comprehensive data archive that accounts (in a reigorous and physically based way) for climate model uncertainty in future climate and hydrologic scenarios. These products can be used to determine likely impacts on vegetation and aquatic habitat in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) region, including WA, OR, ID, northwest MT to the continental divide, northern CA, NV, UT, and the Columbia Basin portion of western WY New data series and summaries produced for this project include: 1) extreme statistics for surface hydrology (e.g. frequency of soil moisture and summer water deficit) and streamflow (e.g. the 100-year flood, extreme 7-day low flows with a 10-year recurrence interval); 2) snowpack vulnerability as indicated by the ratio of April 1 snow water to cool-season precipitation; and, 3) uncertainty analyses for multiple climate

  19. Scientific commentary: Strategic analysis of environmental policy risks--heat maps, risk futures and the character of environmental harm.

    PubMed

    Prpich, G; Dagonneau, J; Rocks, S A; Lickorish, F; Pollard, S J T

    2013-10-01

    We summarise our recent efforts on the policy-level risk appraisal of environmental risks. These have necessitated working closely with policy teams and a requirement to maintain crisp and accessible messages for policy audiences. Our comparative analysis uses heat maps, supplemented with risk narratives, and employs the multidimensional character of risks to inform debates on the management of current residual risk and future threats. The policy research and ensuing analysis raises core issues about how comparative risk analyses are used by policy audiences, their validation and future developments that are discussed in the commentary below.

  20. Development of National Future Extreme Heat Scenario to Enable the Assessment of Climate Impacts on Public Health

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Quattrochi, Dale A.; Cresson, William L.; Al-Hamdan, Mohammad Z.; Estes, Maurice G.

    2013-01-01

    The project's emphasis is on providing assessments of the magnitude, frequency and geographic distribution of EHEs to facilitate public health studies. We focus on the daily to weekly time scales on which EHEs occur, not on decadal-scale climate changes. There is, however, a very strong connection between air temperature patterns at the two time scales and long-term climatic changes will certainly alter the frequency of EHEs.

  1. Application of probabilistic event attribution in the summer heat extremes in the western US to emissions traced to major industrial carbon producers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mera, R. J.; Allen, M. R.; Mote, P.; Ekwurzel, B.; Frumhoff, P. C.; Rupp, D. E.

    2015-12-01

    Heat waves in the western US have become progressively more severe due to increasing relative humidity and nighttime temperatures, increasing the health risks of vulnerable portions of the population, including Latino farmworkers in California's Central Valley and other socioeconomically disadvantaged communities. Recent research has shown greenhouse gas emissions doubled the risk of the hottest summer days during the 2000's in the Central Valley, increasing public health risks and costs, and raising the question of which parties are responsible for paying these costs. It has been argued that these costs should not be taken up solely by the general public through taxation, but that additional parties can be considered, including multinational corporations who have extracted and marketed a large proportion of carbon-based fuels. Here, we apply probabilistic event attribution (PEA) to assess the contribution of emissions traced to the world's 90 largest major industrial carbon producers to the severity and frequency of these extreme heat events. Our research uses very large ensembles of regional climate model simulations to calculate fractional attribution of policy-relevant extreme heat variables. We compare a full forcings world with observed greenhouse gases, sea surface temperatures and sea ice extent to a counter-factual world devoid of carbon pollution from major industrial carbon producers. The results show a discernable fraction of record-setting summer temperatures in the western US during the 2000's can be attributed to emissions sourced from major carbon producers.

  2. Future Projections from the Effects of Heat Stress on Livestock: for the US and New England Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McCabe, E.; Buzan, J. R.; Huber, M.; Krishnan, S.

    2015-12-01

    Future climate change will result in variations in heat stress experienced by livestock, which will consequently impact health, well-being, and yield. In this study, we estimate future yield changes for livestock due to heat stress in New England. We use the Community Land Model version 4.5 (CLM4.5), a component of the Community Earth System Model (CESM) that is developed by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). The simulation uses RCP8.5 boundary conditions, and is driven by CCSM4 atmospheric forcing from the CMIP5 archive, that conducts simulations of the past and next century. Heat stress metrics are calculated using the HumanIndexMod in CLM4.5 for the early and late 21st century. For example, the humidity index for comfort and physiology, wet bulb temperature and swamp cooler efficiency. Results indicate that in the New England Region, temperatures will increase by 4 °C and in New Hampshire specifically by 3 °C. Temperature humidity index for comfort and physiology, swamp cooler efficiency and wet bulb are all projected to rise by the end of the century. While it is obvious that these elevations in temperature will have a negative effect on animals inhibiting their performance and output, our analysis also emphasizes the role of changes in humidity in heat stress. We show that heat stress caused by temperature and humidity increases, will decrease overall production yield for dairy and beef cattle, sows, finishing hogs and poultry, as a result of heat stress and other major climatic factors. We estimate and discuss resulting economic losses for the livestock industries and the impact in the United States and New England Region.

  3. Extreme Halophiles and Carbon Monoxide: Looking Through Windows at Earth's Past and Towards a Future on Mars

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    King, G.

    2015-12-01

    Carbon monoxide, which is ubiquitous on Earth, is the 2nd most abundant molecule in the universe. Members of the domain Bacteria have long been known to oxidize it, and activities of CO oxidizers in soils have been known for several decades to contribute to tropospheric CO regulation. Nonetheless, the diversity of CO oxidizers and their evolutionary history remain largely unknown. A molybdenum-dependent dehydrogenase (Mo-CODH) couples CO oxidation by most terrestrial and marine bacteria to either O2 or nitrate. Molybdenum dependence, the requirement for O2 and previous phylogenetic inferences have all supported a relatively late evolution for "aerobic" CO oxidation, presumably after the Great Oxidation Event (GOE) about 2.3 Gya. Although conundrums remain, recent discoveries suggest that Mo-CODH might have evolved before the GOE, and prior to the Bacteria-Archaea split. New phylogenetic analyses incorporating sequences from extremely halophilic CO-oxidizing Euryarchaeota isolated from salterns in the Atacama Desert, brines on Hawai`i and from the Bonneville Salt Flat suggest that Mo-CODH was present in an ancestor shared by Bacteria and Archaea. This observation is consistent with results of phylogenetic histories of genes involved in Mo-cofactor synthesis, and findings by others that Mo-nitrogenase was likely active > 3 Gya. Thus, analyses of Mo-dependent CO oxidizers provide a window on the past by raising questions about the availability of Mo and non-O2 electron acceptors. Extremely halophilic CO oxidizers also provide insights relevant for understanding the potential for extraterrestrial life. CO likely occurred at high concentrations in Mars' early atmosphere, and it occurs presently at about 800 ppm. At such high concentrations, CO represents one of the most abundant energy sources available for near-surface regolith. However, use of CO by an extant or transplanted Mars microbiota would require tolerance of low water potentials and high salt concentrations

  4. Climate Extremes and the Length of Gestation

    PubMed Central

    Basagaña, Xavier; Sartini, Claudio; Figueras, Francesc; Vrijheid, Martine; de Nazelle, Audrey; Sunyer, Jordi; Nieuwenhuijsen, Mark J.

    2011-01-01

    Background: Although future climate is predicted to have more extreme heat conditions, the available evidence on the impact of these conditions on pregnancy length is very scarce and inconclusive. Objectives: We investigated the impact of maternal short-term exposure to extreme ambient heat on the length of pregnancy. Methods: This study was based on a cohort of births that occurred in a major university hospital in Barcelona during 2001–2005. Three indicators of extreme heat conditions based on 1-day exposure to an unusually high heat–humidity index were applied. Each mother was assigned the measures made by the meteorological station closest to maternal residential postcodes. A two-stage analysis was developed to quantify the change in pregnancy length after maternal exposure to extreme heat conditions adjusted for a range of covariates. The second step was repeated for lags 0 (delivery date) to 6 days. Results: We included data from 7,585 pregnant women in our analysis. We estimated a 5-day reduction in average gestational age at delivery after an unusually high heat–humidity index on the day before delivery. Conclusion: Extreme heat was associated with a reduction in the average gestational age of children delivered the next day, suggesting an immediate effect of this exposure on pregnant women. Further studies are required to confirm our findings in different settings. PMID:21659038

  5. Large scale and sub-regional connections in the lead up to summer heat wave and extreme rainfall events in eastern Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boschat, Ghyslaine; Pezza, Alexandre; Simmonds, Ian; Perkins, Sarah; Cowan, Tim; Purich, Ariaan

    2015-04-01

    Australia has been exposed to a vast array of extreme weather regimes over the past few years, and the frequency and intensity of these events are expected to increase as a result of anthropogenic climate change. However, the predictability of extreme droughts, heat waves (HWs), bushfires and floods, is still hampered by our inability to fully understand how these weather systems interact with each other and with the climate system. This study brings new insight into the regional and large scale dynamics of some extreme events in Australia, by describing and comparing the climate signature of summer HWs and extreme rainfall events which have occurred in the states of Victoria and Queensland respectively, during 1979-2013. Our analyses highlight the importance of mid-latitude dynamics operating during HWs, in contrast with more tropical interactions at play during extreme rainfall events. A `common' blocking high pressure system is observed over the Tasman Sea during the two types of extreme events, and may explain why some southeastern HWs (only about 25 %) occur in close succession with floods in Queensland. However, our results suggest that there is no dynamical link between these two types of events, since the HW-related anticyclone evolves as part of a baroclinic wave train, whereas in the case of rainfall events, this structure emerges as an equivalent barotropic response to tropical convection. Sub-regional surface temperatures and air-sea fluxes also suggest that distinct processes may be operating in the lead up to these two events. Indeed, HWs tend to occur when the wave train propagates from the south Indian to the Pacific Ocean, inducing a quasi-stationary blocking high system over the Tasman Sea. This anticyclonic anomaly can then advect hot dry air towards the southern Victorian coast, where it produces HW conditions. On the other hand, extreme rainfall events mostly occur when the background conditions correspond to a La Niña state. The convection

  6. Exploring Mbar shock conditions and isochorically heated aluminum at the Matter in Extreme Conditions end station of the Linac Coherent Light Source

    SciTech Connect

    Doppner, T.; LePape, S.; Ma, T.; Pak, A.; Turnbull, D.; Fletcher, L. B.; Lee, H. J.; Galtier, E.; Nagler, B.; Gauthier, M.; Heimann, P.; Hastings, J. B.; Zastrau, U.; Glenzer, S. H.; White, T.; Gregori, G.; Wei, M.; Barbrel, B.; Falcone, R. W.

    2014-08-11

    Recent experiments performed at the Matter in Extreme Conditions end station of the Linac Coherent Light Source (LCLS) have demonstrated the first spectrally resolved measurements of plasmons from isochorically heated aluminum. The experiments have been performed using a seeded 8-keV x-ray laser beam as a pump and probe to both volumetrically heat and scatterx-rays from aluminum. Collective x-ray Thomson scattering spectra show a well-resolved plasmon feature that is down-shifted in energy by 19 eV. In addition, Mbar shock pressures from laser-compressed aluminum foils using velocity interferometer system for any reflector have been measured. Furthermore, the combination of experiments fully demonstrates the possibility to perform warm dense matter studies at the LCLS with unprecedented accuracy and precision.

  7. Exploring Mbar shock conditions and isochorically heated aluminum at the Matter in Extreme Conditions end station of the Linac Coherent Light Source

    DOE PAGES

    Doppner, T.; LePape, S.; Ma, T.; ...

    2014-08-11

    Recent experiments performed at the Matter in Extreme Conditions end station of the Linac Coherent Light Source (LCLS) have demonstrated the first spectrally resolved measurements of plasmons from isochorically heated aluminum. The experiments have been performed using a seeded 8-keV x-ray laser beam as a pump and probe to both volumetrically heat and scatterx-rays from aluminum. Collective x-ray Thomson scattering spectra show a well-resolved plasmon feature that is down-shifted in energy by 19 eV. In addition, Mbar shock pressures from laser-compressed aluminum foils using velocity interferometer system for any reflector have been measured. Furthermore, the combination of experiments fully demonstratesmore » the possibility to perform warm dense matter studies at the LCLS with unprecedented accuracy and precision.« less

  8. Exploring Mbar shock conditions and isochorically heated aluminum at the Matter in Extreme Conditions end station of the Linac Coherent Light Source (invited)a)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fletcher, L. B.; Lee, H. J.; Barbrel, B.; Gauthier, M.; Galtier, E.; Nagler, B.; Döppner, T.; LePape, S.; Ma, T.; Pak, A.; Turnbull, D.; White, T.; Gregori, G.; Wei, M.; Falcone, R. W.; Heimann, P.; Zastrau, U.; Hastings, J. B.; Glenzer, S. H.

    2014-11-01

    Recent experiments performed at the Matter in Extreme Conditions end station of the Linac Coherent Light Source (LCLS) have demonstrated the first spectrally resolved measurements of plasmons from isochorically heated aluminum. The experiments have been performed using a seeded 8-keV x-ray laser beam as a pump and probe to both volumetrically heat and scatter x-rays from aluminum. Collective x-ray Thomson scattering spectra show a well-resolved plasmon feature that is down-shifted in energy by 19 eV. In addition, Mbar shock pressures from laser-compressed aluminum foils using velocity interferometer system for any reflector have been measured. The combination of experiments fully demonstrates the possibility to perform warm dense matter studies at the LCLS with unprecedented accuracy and precision.

  9. On the Role of SST Forcing in the 2011 and 2012 Extreme U.S. Heat and Drought: A Study in Contrasts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wang, Hailan; Schubert, Siegfried; Koster, Randal; Ham, Yoo-Geun; Suarez, Max

    2013-01-01

    This study compares the extreme heat and drought that developed over the United States in 2011 and 2012 with a focus on the role of SST forcing. Experiments with the NASA GEOS-5 atmospheric general circulation model show that the winter/spring response over the U.S. to the Pacific SST is remarkably similar for the two years despite substantial differences in the tropical Pacific SST. As such, the pronounced winter and early spring temperature differences between the two years (warmth confined to the south in 2011 and covering much of the continent in 2012) primarily reflect differences in the contributions from the Atlantic and Indian Oceans, with both acting to cool the east and upper mid-west during 2011, while during 2012 the Indian Ocean reinforced the Pacific-driven continental-wide warming and the Atlantic played a less important role. During late spring and summer of 2011 the tropical Pacific SST force a continued warming and drying over the southern U.S., though considerably weaker than observed. Nevertheless, the observed anomalies fall within the models intra-ensemble spread. In contrast, the rapid development of intense heat and drying over the central U.S. during June and July of 2012 falls outside the models intra-ensemble spread. The response to the SST (a northward expansion of a modest summer warming linked to the Atlantic) gives little indication that 2012 would produce record-breaking precipitation deficits and heat in the central Great Plains. A diagnosis of the 2012 observed circulation anomalies shows that the most extreme heat and drought was tied to the development of a stationary Rossby wave and an associated anomalous upper tropospheric high maintained by weather transients.

  10. Combined Heat and Power: Effective Energy Solutions for a Sustainable Future

    SciTech Connect

    Shipley, Ms. Anna; Hampson, Anne; Hedman, Mr. Bruce; Garland, Patricia W; Bautista, Paul

    2008-12-01

    Combined Heat and Power (CHP) solutions represent a proven and effective near-term energy option to help the United States enhance energy efficiency, ensure environmental quality, promote economic growth, and foster a robust energy infrastructure. Using CHP today, the United States already avoids more than 1.9 Quadrillion British thermal units (Quads) of fuel consumption and 248 million metric tons of carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) emissions annually compared to traditional separate production of electricity and thermal energy. This CO{sub 2} reduction is the equivalent of removing more than 45 million cars from the road. In addition, CHP is one of the few options in the portfolio of energy alternatives that combines environmental effectiveness with economic viability and improved competitiveness. This report describes in detail the four key areas where CHP has proven its effectiveness and holds promise for the future as an: (1) Environmental Solution: Significantly reducing CO{sub 2} emissions through greater energy efficiency; (2) Competitive Business Solution: Increasing efficiency, reducing business costs, and creating green-collar jobs; (3) Local Energy Solution: Deployable throughout the US; and (4) Infrastructure Modernization Solution: Relieving grid congestion and improving energy security. CHP should be one of the first technologies deployed for near-term carbon reductions. The cost-effectiveness and near-term viability of widespread CHP deployment place the technology at the forefront of practical alternative energy solutions such as wind, solar, clean coal, biofuels, and nuclear power. Clear synergies exist between CHP and most other technologies that dominate the energy and environmental policy dialogue in the country today. As the Nation transforms how it produces, transports, and uses the many forms of energy, it must seize the clear opportunity afforded by CHP in terms of climate change, economic competitiveness, energy security, and infrastructure

  11. Tuning extreme ultraviolet emission for optimum coupling with multilayer mirrors for future lithography through control of ionic charge states

    SciTech Connect

    Ohashi, Hayato Higashiguchi, Takeshi Suzuki, Yuhei; Kawasaki, Masato; Li, Bowen; Dunne, Padraig; O'Sullivan, Gerry; Kanehara, Tatsuhiko; Aida, Yuya; Nakamura, Nobuyuki; Torii, Shuichi; Makimura, Tetsuya; Jiang, Weihua

    2014-01-21

    We report on the identification of the optimum plasma conditions for a laser-produced plasma source for efficient coupling with multilayer mirrors at 6.x nm for beyond extreme ultraviolet lithography. A small shift to lower energies of the peak emission for Nd:YAG laser-produced gadolinium plasmas was observed with increasing laser power density. Charge-defined emission spectra were observed in electron beam ion trap (EBIT) studies and the charge states responsible identified by use of the flexible atomic code (FAC). The EBIT spectra displayed a larger systematic shift of the peak wavelength of intense emission at 6.x nm to longer wavelengths with increasing ionic charge. This combination of spectra enabled the key ion stage to be confirmed as Gd{sup 18+}, over a range of laser power densities, with contributions from Gd{sup 17+} and Gd{sup 19+} responsible for the slight shift to longer wavelengths in the laser-plasma spectra. The FAC calculation also identified the origin of observed out-of-band emission and the charge states responsible.

  12. Evidence of prehistoric flooding and the potential for future extreme flooding at Coyote Wash, Yucca Mountain, Nye County, Nevada

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Glancy, Patrick A.

    1994-01-01

    Coyote Wash, east of Yucca Mountain and southwest of the Nevada Test Site, is the potential location for an exploratory shaft to investigate the feasibility of underground storage of radioactive waste. The potential for flooding and related fluvial-debris hazards was investigated with respect to the potential shaft location. Trenches excavated through fluvial sediment deposits revealed interstratified rock detritus emplaced by floods and debris flows. Most of the deposits are believed to be of late Quaternary age. Debros-flow deposits contain boulders as large as 3 feet in diameter. This evidence of intense prehistoric flooding and debris movement indicates the possibility of similar continuing activity. Empirical estimates of extreme flood flows in North Fork Coyote Wash, a 0.094- square-mile drainage to the shaft site, range from 900 to 2,600 cubic feet per second. Current (1992) knowledge indicates that flows of water and debris as much as 2,500 cubic feet per second can occur in the vicinity of the shaft from this drainage. Similar size flows from adjacent South Fork Coyote Wash, could arrive simultaneously in the vicinity of the shaft. Thus, cumulative water and debris from both tributaries could subject the alluvial flood plain near the shaft site to flows of as much as 5,000 cubic feet per second.

  13. Using a Clean Energy Version of Moore's Law to Plan for the Extreme Efficiency of the Future

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van Buskirk, Robert

    2014-03-01

    In 1965, Gordon Moore predicted a decade of exponential growth in the transistor density growth (and hence computing power) for integrated circuits that--with some modification--has held to the present day. In this talk, we discuss to what extent clean energy technologies are subject to similar laws of long term exponential improvement and how these improvement rates may be accelerating due to recent developments. We review a range of long term energy efficiency and technology productivity improvement trends ranging from lighting, televisions, refrigerators, HVAC, batteries, motors, power electronics and solar PV. After reviewing historical and recent trends, we discuss several factors that may lead to an acceleration of improvement rates in the clean energy technology sector. Finally, we discuss the Baumol effect which predicts how differential trends in technology productivity may affect trends in relative prices in the economy. We conclude with a discussion of some of the implications that Baumol's theories may have for the development of extreme levels of energy efficiency in the coming decades.

  14. Enabling a Better Aft Heat Shield Solution for Future Mars Science Laboratory Class Vehicles

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    McGuire, Mary K.; Covington, Melmoth A.; Goldstein, Howard E.; Arnold, James O.; Beck, Robin

    2013-01-01

    System studies are described that compare masses and estimated manufacturing costs of options for the as-flown Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) aft body Thermal Light Weight Ablator (SLA) 561-V and its thickness was not optimized using the standard TPS Sizer Tool widely used for heat shield design. Use of the TPS sizing tool suggests that optimization of the SLA thickness could reduce the aft heat shield mass by 40 percent. Analysis of the predicted aft-shell aerothermodynamics suggests that the bulk of MSL class entry vehicle heat shields could incorporate Advanced Flexible Reusable Surface Insulation (AFRSI). AFRSI has a wellestablished record of relatively inexpensive manufacturing and flight certification based on its use on the lee side of the Space Shuttle. Runs with the TPS Sizer show that the AFRSI solution would be 60 percent lighter than the as-flown SLA. The issue of Reaction Control System (RCS) heating on the aft shell could be addressed by locally impregnating the AFRSI with silicone to enhance its robustness to short bursts ofheating. Stagnation point arcjet testing has shown that silicone impregnated AFRSI performs well at heat rates of 115 W/cm2 and 0.1 atmospheres for a duration of 40 seconds, far beyond conditions that are expected for MSL class vehicles. The paper concludes with a discussion of manufacturing processes for AFRSI, impregnation approaches and relative cost comparisons to the SLA solution.

  15. National commercial solar heating and cooling demonstration: purposes, program activities, and implications for future programs

    SciTech Connect

    Koontz, R.; Genest, M.; Bryant, B.

    1980-05-01

    The Solar Heating and Cooling Demonstration Act of 1974 created a set of activities to demonstrate the potential use of solar heating within a three-year period and of combined solar heating and cooling within a five-year period. This study assesses the Commercial Demonstration Program portion of the activity in terms of its stated goals and objectives. The primary data base was DOE contractor reports on commercial demonstration projects. It was concluded that the program did not provide data to support a positive decision for the immediate construction or purchase of commercial solar systems. However, the program may have contributed to other goals in the subsequent legislation; i.e., research and development information, stimulation of the solar industry, and more informed policy decisions.

  16. Regional analysis of drought and heat impacts on forests: current and future science directions.

    PubMed

    Law, Beverly E

    2014-12-01

    Accurate assessments of forest response to current and future climate and human actions are needed at regional scales. Predicting future impacts on forests will require improved analysis of species-level adaptation, resilience, and vulnerability to mortality. Land system models can be enhanced by creating trait-based groupings of species that better represent climate sensitivity, such as risk of hydraulic failure from drought. This emphasizes the need for more coordinated in situ and remote sensing observations to track changes in ecosystem function, and to improve model inputs, spatio-temporal diagnosis, and predictions of future conditions, including implications of actions to mitigate climate change.

  17. Occupational health impacts of climate change: current and future ISO standards for the assessment of heat stress.

    PubMed

    Parsons, Ken

    2013-01-01

    The current system of International Standards (ISO) is assessed to consider whether standards are fit for purpose for the future in the context of climate change. ISO 7243, ISO 7933 and ISO 9886 provide the current ISO system for the assessment of heat stress. These involve a simple monitoring index, an analytical approach and physiological monitoring, respectively. The system relies on accurate measurement of the thermal conditions experienced by the worker (ISO 7726); and estimations of metabolic heat production due to work (ISO 8996) and the thermal properties of clothing (ISO 9920). As well as standards for heat stress assessment, the full range of ISO standards and the physical environment is listed as well as current work and proposed standards. A particular 'gap' in anticipating requirements for ISO standards in the future is the link between meteorological data and ISO standards. This is important for predicting the global consequences of a changing climate and anticipating potential impacts on occupational health across countries and cultures.

  18. Evidence of prehistoric flooding and the potential for future extreme flooding at Coyote Wash, Yucca Mountain, Nye County, Nevada

    SciTech Connect

    Glancy, P.A.

    1994-09-01

    Coyote Wash, an approximately 0.3-square-mile drainage on the eastern flank of Yucca Mountain, is the potential location for an exploratory shaft to evaluate the suitability of Yucca Mountain for construction of an underground repository for the storage of high-level radioactive wastes. An ongoing investigation is addressing the potential for hazards to the site and surrounding areas from flooding and related fluvial-debris movement. Unconsolidated sediments in and adjacent to the channel of North Fork Coyote Wash were examined for evidence of past floods. Trenches excavated across and along the valley bottom exposed multiple flood deposits, including debris-flow deposits containing boulders as large as 2 to 3 feet in diameter. Most of the alluvial deposition probably occurred during the late Quaternary. Deposits at the base of the deepest trench overlie bedrock and underlie stream terraces adjacent to the channel; these sediments are moderately indurated and probably were deposited during the late Pleistocene. Overlying nonindurated deposits clearly are younger and may be of Holocene age. This evidence of intense flooding during the past indicates that severe flooding and debris movement are possible in the future. Empirical estimates of large floods of the past range from 900 to 2,600 cubic feet per second from the 0.094-square-mile drainage area of North Fork Coyote Wash drainage at two proposed shaft sites. Current knowledge indicates that mixtures of water and debris are likely to flow from North Fork Coyote Wash at rates up to 2,500 cubic feet per second. South Fork Coyote Wash, which has similar basin area and hydraulic characteristics, probably will have concurrent floods of similar magnitudes. The peak flow of the two tributaries probably would combine near the potential sites for the exploratory shaft to produce future flow of water and accompanying debris potentially as large as 5,000 cubic feet per second.

  19. Lookup Tables for Predicting CHF and Film-Boiling Heat Transfer: Past, Present, and Future

    SciTech Connect

    Groeneveld, D.C.; Leung, L.K. H.; Guo, Y.; Vasic, A.; El Nakla, M.; Peng, S.W.; Yang, J.; Cheng, S.C.

    2005-10-15

    Lookup tables (LUTs) have been used widely for the prediction of critical heat flux (CHF) and film-boiling heat transfer for water-cooled tubes. LUTs are basically normalized data banks. They eliminate the need to choose between the many different CHF and film-boiling heat transfer prediction methods available.The LUTs have many advantages; e.g., (a) they are simple to use, (b) there is no iteration required, (c) they have a wide range of applications, (d) they may be applied to nonaqueous fluids using fluid-to-fluid modeling relationships, and (e) they are based on a very large database. Concerns associated with the use of LUTs include (a) there are fluctuations in the value of the CHF or film-boiling heat transfer coefficient (HTC) with pressure, mass flux, and quality, (b) there are large variations in the CHF or the film-boiling HTC between the adjacent table entries, and (c) there is a lack or scarcity of data at certain flow conditions.Work on the LUTs is continuing. This will resolve the aforementioned concerns and improve the LUT prediction capability. This work concentrates on better smoothing of the LUT entries, increasing the database, and improving models at conditions where data are sparse or absent.

  20. Extreme Drought, Fire and Harvest Impacts on Pacific Northwest Forests, and the Effects of Future Climate and Mitigation Measures on the Carbon Balance

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Law, B. E.; Hudiburg, T. W.; Luyssaert, S.; Coops, N.

    2012-12-01

    Climate change is affecting the odds of extreme weather events, including increased frequency of drought events. Under past and current climate and land management conditions in the Pacific Northwest, natural (drought, fire) and anthropogenic (harvest) disturbances interact across landscapes to affect the carbon balance of forests. Biomass and productivity are high (Hudiburg et al. 2009, 2011), harvest and wildfire are the major disturbances, and harvest removals dominate the net ecosystem carbon balance. We used AmeriFlux observations, inventories, remote sensing data, and models to understand current and future effects on forest distributions and the carbon balance, and the effects of mitigation measures. The region is divided into the mild coastal climate and inland continental conditions with colder winters and drier forests in the rain shadow of the Cascade Mountains. In semi-arid ponderosa pine forests of the East Cascades ecoregion, NEP was reduced by ~44% during a series of extreme drought years compared with a seven year average, consistent with western region average impacts, and there were carry-over effects the following year. Reduction in GPP was proportionately larger than reduction in ecosystem respiration during drought. In the mild climate of the Coast Range, Douglas-fir NEP was reduced ~40% in a single drought year, but recovered quickly in subsequent 'normal' years. Douglas-fir tends to be very plastic and can take up carbon during the winter months when temperature is above freezing, but this isn't seen in ponderosa pine due to colder winter temperatures. Model projections of impacts of future climate on PNW forests suggest larger changes in the eastern dry part of the region, while predicted impacts on Coast Range forests are more variable. Modeling and observations suggest the Pacific Ocean may moderate climate and buffer the coastal forests. With projected increases in extreme drought events, particularly where dry systems are expected to

  1. Potential Remedies for the High Synchrotron-Radiation-Induced Heat Load for Future Highest-Energy-Proton Circular Colliders

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cimino, R.; Baglin, V.; Schäfers, F.

    2015-12-01

    We propose a new method for handling the high synchrotron radiation (SR) induced heat load of future circular hadron colliders (like FCC-hh). FCC-hh are dominated by the production of SR, which causes a significant heat load on the accelerator walls. Removal of such a heat load in the cold part of the machine, as done in the Large Hadron Collider, will require more than 100 MW of electrical power and a major cooling system. We studied a totally different approach, identifying an accelerator beam screen whose illuminated surface is able to forward reflect most of the photons impinging onto it. Such a reflecting beam screen will transport a significant part of this heat load outside the cold dipoles. Then, in room temperature sections, it could be more efficiently dissipated. Here we will analyze the proposed solution and address its full compatibility with all other aspects an accelerator beam screen must fulfill to keep under control beam instabilities as caused by electron cloud formation, impedance, dynamic vacuum issues, etc. If experimentally fully validated, a highly reflecting beam screen surface will provide a viable and solid solution to be eligible as a baseline design in FCC-hh projects to come, rendering them more cost effective and sustainable.

  2. Micro-Columnated Loop Heat Pipe: The Future of Electronic Substrates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dhillon, Navdeep Singh

    The modern world is run by semiconductor-based electronic systems. Due to continuous improvements in semiconductor device fabrication, there is a clear trend in the market towards the development of electronic devices and components that not only deliver enhanced computing power, but are also more compact. Thermal management has emerged as the primary challenge in this scenario where heat flux dissipation of electronic chips is increasing exponentially, but conventional cooling solutions such as conduction and convection are no longer feasible. To keep device junction temperatures within the safe operating limit, there is an urgent requirement for ultra-high-conductivity thermal substrates that not only absorb and transport large heat fluxes, but can also provide localized cooling to thermal hotspots. This dissertation describes the design, modeling, and fabrication of a phase change-based, planar, ultra-thin, passive thermal transport system that is inspired by the concept of loop heat pipes and capillary pumped loops. Fabricated on silicon and Pyrex wafers using microfabrication techniques, the micro-columnated loop heat pipe (muCLHP) can be integrated directly with densely packed or multiply-stacked electronic substrates, to provide localized high-heat-flux thermal management. The muCLHP employs a dual-scale coherent porous silicon(CPS)-based micro-columnated wicking structure, where the primary CPS wick provides large capillary forces for fluid transport, while a secondary surface-wick maximizes the rate of thin-film evaporation. To overcome the wick thickness limitation encountered in conventional loop heat pipes, strategies based on MEMS surface micromachining techniques were developed to reduce parasitic heat flow from the evaporator to the compensation chamber of the device. Finite element analysis was used to confirm this reduction in a planar evaporator design, thus enabling the generation of a large motive temperature head for continuous device operation

  3. Extreme ultraviolet light sources for use in semiconductor lithography—state of the art and future development

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stamm, Uwe

    2004-12-01

    This paper gives an overview of the development status and plans of extreme ultraviolet (EUV) light sources at XTREME technologies, a joint venture of Lambda Physik AG, Göttingen and JENOPTIK LOS GmbH, Jena, Germany. Results for gas discharge-produced plasma (GDPP) and laser-produced plasma (LPP), the two major technologies in EUV sources, are presented. The GDPP EUV sources use the Z-pinch principle with efficient sliding-discharge pre-ionization. First prototypes of commercial gas discharge sources with an EUV power of 35 W in 2π sr have already been integrated into EUV microsteppers. These sources are equipped with a debris-filter which supports an optics lifetime exceeding 100 million pulses at 1 kHz repetition rate. The same lifetime was achieved for the components of the discharge system itself. The progress in the development of high-power discharge sources based on xenon resulted in an EUV power of 200 W into a 2π sr solid angle, in continuous operation, at 4.5 kHz repetition rate, by implementation of porous-metal cooling technology. The available intermediate focus (IF) power is 22 W taking into account experimentally verified losses in a 1.8 sr source collector module. The usable IF power depends on the etendue of the optical system of the EUV scanner. For the current size of the EUV emitting plasma the etendue acceptance factor may be below 0.5. The currently usable IF power with 1.8 sr collector mirror may therefore be about 10 W. Z-pinch discharge sources with Sn as the emitter have been developed as a more efficient alternative to xenon fuelled sources. Tin sources showed a conversion efficiency (CE) that was double that of xenon. EUV power of 400 W in 2π sr has been generated at only 4.5 kHz repetition rate. The available IF power is 44 W. Estimates evaluating the tin source performance reveal the potential for achieving high-volume manufacturing (HVM) power specification by using existing technology. Because of their small plasma size and the

  4. A Review of the Experimental and Modeling Development of a Water Phase Change Heat Exchanger for Future Exploration Support Vehicles

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cognata, Thomas; Leimkuehler, Thomas; Ramaswamy, Balasubramaniam; Nayagam, Vedha; Hasan, Mohammad; Stephan, Ryan

    2011-01-01

    Water affords manifold benefits for human space exploration. Its properties make it useful for the storage of thermal energy as a Phase Change Material (PCM) in thermal control systems, in radiation shielding against Solar Particle Events (SPE) for the protection of crew members, and it is indisputably necessary for human life support. This paper envisions a single application for water which addresses these benefits for future exploration support vehicles and it describes recent experimental and modeling work that has been performed in order to arrive at a description of the thermal behavior of such a system. Experimental units have been developed and tested which permit the evaluation of the many parameters of design for such a system with emphasis on the latent energy content, temperature rise, mass, and interstitial material geometry. The experimental results are used to develop a robust and well correlated model which is intended to guide future design efforts toward the multi-purposed water PCM heat exchanger envisioned.

  5. Phosphoglucose isomerase genotype affects running speed and heat shock protein expression after exposure to extreme temperatures in a montane willow beetle.

    PubMed

    Rank, Nathan E; Bruce, Douglas A; McMillan, David M; Barclay, Colleen; Dahlhoff, Elizabeth P

    2007-03-01

    Eastern Sierra Nevada populations of the willow beetle Chrysomela aeneicollis commonly experience stressfully high and low environmental temperatures that may influence survival and reproduction. Allele frequencies at the enzyme locus phosphoglucose isomerase (PGI) vary across a climatic latitudinal gradient in these populations, with PGI allele 1 being most common in cooler regions and PGI allele 4 in warmer ones. PGI genotypes differ in heat and cold tolerance and in expression of a 70 kDa heat shock protein. Here we examine genetic, behavioral and environmental factors affecting a performance character, running speed, for willow beetles, and assess effects of consecutive cold and heat exposure on running speed and expression of Hsp70 in the laboratory. In nature, running speed depends on air temperature and is higher for males than females. Mating beetles ran faster than single beetles, and differences among PGI genotypes in male running speed depended on the presence of females. In the laboratory, exposure to cold reduced subsequent running speed, but the amount of this reduction depended on PGI genotype and previous thermal history. Effects of exposure to heat also depended on life history stage and PGI genotype. Adults possessing allele 1 ran fastest after a single exposure to stressful temperature, whereas those possessing allele 4 ran faster after repeated exposure. Larvae possessing allele 4 ran fastest after a single stressful exposure, but running speed generally declined after a second exposure to stressful temperature. The ranking of PGI genotypes after the second exposure depended on whether a larva had been exposed to cold or heat. Effects of temperature on Hsp70 expression also varied among PGI genotypes and depended on type of exposure, especially for adults (single heat exposure, two cold exposures: PGI 1-1>1-4>4-4; other multiple extreme exposures: 4-4>1-4>1-1). There was no consistent association between alleles at other polymorphic enzyme loci

  6. Mitigation potential of horizontal ground coupled heat pumps for current and future climatic conditions: UK environmental modelling and monitoring studies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    García González, Raquel; Verhoef, Anne; Vidale, Pier Luigi; Gan, Guohui; Wu, Yupeng; Hughes, Andrew; Mansour, Majdi; Blyth, Eleanor; Finch, Jon; Main, Bruce

    2010-05-01

    model predictions of soil moisture content and soil temperature with measurements at different GCHP locations over the UK. The combined effect of environment dynamics and horizontal GCHP technical properties on long-term GCHP performance will be assessed using a detailed land surface model (JULES: Joint UK Land Environment Simulator, Meteorological Office, UK) with additional equations embedded describing the interaction between GCHP heat exchangers and the surrounding soil. However, a number of key soil physical processes are currently not incorporated in JULES, such as groundwater flow, which, especially in lowland areas, can have an important effect on the heat flow between soil and HE. Furthermore, the interaction between HE and soil may also cause soil vapour and moisture fluxes. These will affect soil thermal conductivity and hence heat flow between the HE and the surrounding soil, which will in turn influence system performance. The project will address these issues. We propose to drive an improved version of JULES (with equations to simulate GCHP exchange embedded), with long-term gridded (1 km) atmospheric, soil and vegetation data (reflecting current and future environmental conditions) to reliably assess the mitigation potential of GCHPs over the entire domain of the UK, where uptake of GCHPs has been low traditionally. In this way we can identify areas that are most suitable for the installation of GCHPs. Only then recommendations can be made to local and regional governments, for example, on how to improve the mitigation potential in less suitable areas by adjusting GCHP configurations or design.

  7. Heat Shock Protein 90 Inhibition in Cancer Drug Discovery: From Chemistry to Futural Clinical Applications.

    PubMed

    Özgür, Aykut; Tutar, Yusuf

    2016-01-01

    Heat shock protein 90 (Hsp90) is an important member of the chaperone protein family and it is involved in stabilization, regulation, and maintenance of oncogenic client proteins with co-chaperones. Cochaperones regulate the ATPase activity of Hsp90 and its interactions with oncogenic client proteins. Therefore, Hsp90 and its co-chaperones have become significant therapeutic targets for cancer treatment. Many chemical compounds have been evaluated for Hsp90 inhibition as well as significant results were obtained in clinical trials. In this paper, we emphasize on the key roles of Hsp90 and its co-chaperones in tumorigenesis and overview therapeutic strategies of Hsp90 inhibition in oncology.

  8. Investigation of the impact of extreme air temperature on river water temperature: case study of the heat episode 2013.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weihs, Philipp; Trimmel, Heidelinde; Goler, Robert; Formayer, Herbert; Holzapfel, Gerda; Rauch, Hans Peter

    2014-05-01

    Water stream temperature is a relevant factor for water quality since it is an important driver of water oxygen content and in turn also reduces or increases stress on the aquatic fauna. The water temperature of streams is determined by the source and inflow water temperature, by the energy balance at the stream surface and by the hydrological regime of the stream. Main factors driving the energy balance of streams are radiation balance and air temperature which influences the sensitive and latent heat flux. The present study investigates the impact of the heat episode of summer 2013 on water temperature of two lowland rivers in south eastern Austria. Within the scope of the project BIO_CLIC routine measurements of water temperature at 33 locations alongside the rivers Pinka and Lafnitz have been performed since spring 2012. In addition meteorological measurements of global shortwave and longwave radiation, air temperature, wind and air humidity have been carried out during this time. For the same time period, data of discharge and water levels of both rivers were provided by the public hydrological office. The heat episode of summer 2013 started, according to the Kysely- definition, on 18 July and lasted until 14 August. The highest air temperature ever recorded in Austria was reported on 8 August at 40.5°C. In Güssing, which is located within the project area, 40.0 °C were recorded. In the lower reaches of the river Pinka, at the station Burg the monthly mean water temperature of August 2013 was with more than 22°C, 1°C higher than the mean water temperature of the same period of the previous years. At the same station, the maximum water temperature of 27.1°C was recorded on 29 July, 9 days prior to the air temperature record. Analysis shows that at the downstream stations the main driving parameter is solar radiation whereas at the upstream stations a better correlation between air temperature and water temperature is obtained. Using the extensive data set

  9. Liquid Fuel from Heat-Loving Microorganisms: H2-Dependent Conversion of CO2 to Liquid Electrofuels by Extremely Thermophilic Archaea

    SciTech Connect

    2010-07-01

    Electrofuels Project: NC State is working with the University of Georgia to create Electrofuels from primitive organisms called extremophiles that evolved before photosynthetic organisms and live in extreme, hot water environments with temperatures ranging from 167-212 degrees Fahrenheit The team is genetically engineering these microorganisms so they can use hydrogen to turn carbon dioxide directly into alcohol-based fuels. High temperatures are required to distill the biofuels from the water where the organisms live, but the heat-tolerant organisms will continue to thrive even as the biofuels are being distilled—making the fuel-production process more efficient. The microorganisms don’t require light, so they can be grown anywhere—inside a dark reactor or even in an underground facility.

  10. A phylogenetically distinctive and extremely heat stable light-driven proton pump from the eubacterium Rubrobacter xylanophilus DSM 9941(T).

    PubMed

    Kanehara, Kanae; Yoshizawa, Susumu; Tsukamoto, Takashi; Sudo, Yuki

    2017-03-14

    Rhodopsins are proteins that contain seven transmembrane domains with a chromophore retinal and that function as photoreceptors for light-energy conversion and light-signal transduction in a wide variety of organisms. Here we characterized a phylogenetically distinctive new rhodopsin from the thermophilic eubacterium Rubrobacter xylanophilus DSM 9941(T) that was isolated from thermally polluted water. Although R. xylanophilus rhodopsin (RxR) is from Actinobacteria, it is located between eukaryotic and archaeal rhodopsins in the phylogenetic tree. Escherichia coli cells expressing RxR showed a light-induced decrease in environmental pH and inhibition by a protonophore, indicating that it works as a light-driven outward proton pump. We characterized purified RxR spectroscopically, and showed that it has an absorption maximum at 541 nm and binds nearly 100% all-trans retinal. The pKa values for the protonated retinal Schiff base and its counterion were estimated to be 10.7 and 1.3, respectively. Time-resolved flash-photolysis experiments revealed the formation of a red-shifted intermediate. Of note, RxR showed an extremely high thermal stability in comparison with other proton pumping rhodopsins such as thermophilic rhodopsin TR (by 16-times) and bacteriorhodopsin from Halobacterium salinarum (HsBR, by 4-times).

  11. Extreme warmth and heat-stressed plankton in the tropics during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum

    PubMed Central

    Frieling, Joost; Gebhardt, Holger; Huber, Matthew; Adekeye, Olabisi A.; Akande, Samuel O.; Reichart, Gert-Jan; Middelburg, Jack J.; Schouten, Stefan; Sluijs, Appy

    2017-01-01

    Global ocean temperatures rapidly warmed by ~5°C during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM; ~56 million years ago). Extratropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs) met or exceeded modern subtropical values. With these warm extratropical temperatures, climate models predict tropical SSTs >35°C—near upper physiological temperature limits for many organisms. However, few data are available to test these projected extreme tropical temperatures or their potential lethality. We identify the PETM in a shallow marine sedimentary section deposited in Nigeria. On the basis of planktonic foraminiferal Mg/Ca and oxygen isotope ratios and the molecular proxy TEX86H, latest Paleocene equatorial SSTs were ~33°C, and TEX86H indicates that SSTs rose to >36°C during the PETM. This confirms model predictions on the magnitude of polar amplification and refutes the tropical thermostat theory. We attribute a massive drop in dinoflagellate abundance and diversity at peak warmth to thermal stress, showing that the base of tropical food webs is vulnerable to rapid warming. PMID:28275727

  12. Strength of metals in liquid and solid states at extremely high tension produced by femtosecond laser heating

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ashitkov, Sergey I.; Inogamov, Nail A.; Komarov, Pavel S.; Zhakhovsky, Vasily V.; Oleynik, Ivan I.; Agranat, Mikhail B.; Kanel, Gennady I.; Fortov, Vladimir E.

    2012-07-01

    We will discuss results of combined experimental and theoretical investigations of ablation and laser-driven shock-wave phenomena in metal films irradiated by femtosecond laser pulses. The femtosecond interferometric microscopy technique was used to make time-resolved measurements of optical properties as well as record the deformation dynamics at both the rear and frontal surfaces during initial two-temperature electron-ion relaxation and subsequent hydrodynamic expansion. In conjunction with experiment, the formation and propagation of strong tensile and compression waves were investigated by a combination of two-temperature hydrodynamic modeling and molecular dynamics simulations. The experimental tensile strengths of aluminum and nickel in solid and liquid states at extremely high strain rates in range 108÷109s-1 were obtained from the time evolution of rear and frontal surface velocities. Theoretical tensile strengths calculated by atomistic simulations of ablation and spallation using micron-sized films agree well with experiment. Elastic-plastic response of metallic films to shock compression investigated by both experiment and theory/modeling will also be discussed.

  13. Extreme warmth and heat-stressed plankton in the tropics during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum.

    PubMed

    Frieling, Joost; Gebhardt, Holger; Huber, Matthew; Adekeye, Olabisi A; Akande, Samuel O; Reichart, Gert-Jan; Middelburg, Jack J; Schouten, Stefan; Sluijs, Appy

    2017-03-01

    Global ocean temperatures rapidly warmed by ~5°C during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM; ~56 million years ago). Extratropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs) met or exceeded modern subtropical values. With these warm extratropical temperatures, climate models predict tropical SSTs >35°C-near upper physiological temperature limits for many organisms. However, few data are available to test these projected extreme tropical temperatures or their potential lethality. We identify the PETM in a shallow marine sedimentary section deposited in Nigeria. On the basis of planktonic foraminiferal Mg/Ca and oxygen isotope ratios and the molecular proxy [Formula: see text], latest Paleocene equatorial SSTs were ~33°C, and [Formula: see text] indicates that SSTs rose to >36°C during the PETM. This confirms model predictions on the magnitude of polar amplification and refutes the tropical thermostat theory. We attribute a massive drop in dinoflagellate abundance and diversity at peak warmth to thermal stress, showing that the base of tropical food webs is vulnerable to rapid warming.

  14. A phylogenetically distinctive and extremely heat stable light-driven proton pump from the eubacterium Rubrobacter xylanophilus DSM 9941T

    PubMed Central

    Kanehara, Kanae; Yoshizawa, Susumu; Tsukamoto, Takashi; Sudo, Yuki

    2017-01-01

    Rhodopsins are proteins that contain seven transmembrane domains with a chromophore retinal and that function as photoreceptors for light-energy conversion and light-signal transduction in a wide variety of organisms. Here we characterized a phylogenetically distinctive new rhodopsin from the thermophilic eubacterium Rubrobacter xylanophilus DSM 9941T that was isolated from thermally polluted water. Although R. xylanophilus rhodopsin (RxR) is from Actinobacteria, it is located between eukaryotic and archaeal rhodopsins in the phylogenetic tree. Escherichia coli cells expressing RxR showed a light-induced decrease in environmental pH and inhibition by a protonophore, indicating that it works as a light-driven outward proton pump. We characterized purified RxR spectroscopically, and showed that it has an absorption maximum at 541 nm and binds nearly 100% all-trans retinal. The pKa values for the protonated retinal Schiff base and its counterion were estimated to be 10.7 and 1.3, respectively. Time-resolved flash-photolysis experiments revealed the formation of a red-shifted intermediate. Of note, RxR showed an extremely high thermal stability in comparison with other proton pumping rhodopsins such as thermophilic rhodopsin TR (by 16-times) and bacteriorhodopsin from Halobacterium salinarum (HsBR, by 4-times). PMID:28290523

  15. Analysis of the decadal predictability of the North Atlantic volume and heat transport in a future climate projection

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fischer, Matthias; Müller, Wolfgang A.; Domeisen, Daniela I. V.; Baehr, Johanna

    2015-04-01

    The North Atlantic ocean is predicted to change considerably with climate change. An analysis of the North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and the meridional heat transport (OHT) in CMIP5 climate projections in the global coupled Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM-LR) has shown potential changes in the AMOC's and OHT's seasonal cycle in a future climate. From the CMIP5 historical simulation to RCP4.5, both the AMOC and the OHT indicate latitude dependent temporal shifts of about 1 month until 2050. Based on these results, we here examine potential changes in the decadal predictability of the AMOC and OHT under climate change. In MPI-ESM-LR, we generate two hindcast ensembles with 20 start dates and 10 ensemble members per start date for (i) the current climate state in the CMIP5 historical simulation starting in 1995 and (ii) a future climate state in RCP4.5 starting in 2045. These two hindcast ensembles are compared against the historical simulation and RCP4.5 as control simulation, respectively, using anomaly correlation, root-mean-square error (RMSE) and the Brier skill score decomposition. We investigate whether the decadal predictability of the AMOC and OHT might change under future climate conditions both for the annual mean and individual seasons or climate indices (e.g. for the NAO).

  16. Teleconnection, Regime Shift, and Predictability of Climate Extremes: A Case Study for the Russian Heat Wave and Pakistan Flood in Summer 2010

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lau, W. K.; Reale, O.; Kim, K.

    2011-01-01

    In this talk, we present observational evidence showing that the two major extremes events of the summer of 2010, i.e., the Russian heat wave and the Pakistan flood were physically connected. We find that the Pakistan flood was contributed by a series of unusually heavy rain events over the upper Indus River Basin in July-August. The rainfall regimes shifted from an episodic heavy rain regime in mid-to-late July to a steady heavy rain regime in August. An atmospheric Rossby wave associated with the development of the Russian heat wave was instrumental in spurring the episodic rain events , drawing moisture from the Bay of Bengal and the northern Arabian Sea. The steady rain regime was maintained primarily by monsoon moisture surges from the deep tropics. From experiments with the GEOS-5 forecast system, we assess the predictability of the heavy rain events associated with the Pakistan flood. Preliminary results indicate that there are significantly higher skills in the rainfall forecasts during the episodic heavy rain events in July, compared to the steady rain period in early to mid-August. The change in rainfall predictability may be related to scale interactions between the extratropics and the tropics resulting in a modulation of rainfall predictability by the circulation regimes.

  17. Extreme ionospheric ion energization and electron heating in Alfvén waves in the storm time inner magnetosphere

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chaston, C. C.; Bonnell, J. W.; Wygant, J. R.; Kletzing, C. A.; Reeves, G. D.; Gerrard, A.; Lanzerotti, L.; Smith, C. W.

    2015-12-01

    We report measurements of energized outflowing/bouncing ionospheric ions and heated electrons in the inner magnetosphere during a geomagnetic storm. The ions arrive in the equatorial plane with pitch angles that increase with energy over a range from tens of eV to > 50 keV while the electrons are field aligned up to ~1 keV. These particle distributions are observed during intervals of broadband low-frequency electromagnetic field fluctuations consistent with a Doppler-shifted spectrum of kinetic Alfvén waves and kinetic field line resonances. The fluctuations extend from L ≈ 3 out to the apogee of the Van Allen Probes spacecraft at L ≈ 6.5. They thereby span most of the L shell range occupied by the ring current. These measurements suggest a model for ionospheric ion outflow and energization driven by dispersive Alfvén waves that may account for the large storm time contribution of ionospheric ions to magnetospheric energy density.

  18. Caribbean Heat Threatens Health, Well-being and the Future of Humanity

    PubMed Central

    Macpherson, Cheryl C.; Akpinar-Elci, Muge

    2015-01-01

    Climate change has substantial impacts on public health and safety, disease risks and the provision of health care, with the poor being particularly disadvantaged. Management of the associated health risks and changing health service requirements requires adequate responses at local levels. Health-care providers are central to these responses. While climate change raises ethical questions about its causes, impacts and social justice, medicine and bioethics typically focus on individual patients and research participants rather than these broader issues. We broaden this focus by examining awareness among health-care providers in the Caribbean region, where geographic and socioeconomic features pose particular vulnerabilities to climate change. In focus groups, Caribbean providers described rises in mosquito-borne, flood-related, heat-related, respiratory and mental illnesses, and attributed these to local impacts of climate change. Their discussions showed that the significance of these impacts differs in different Caribbean nations, raising policy and social justice questions. Bioethics and public health ethics are situated to frame, inform and initiate public and policy dialog about values and scientific evidence associated with climate change. We urge readers to initiate such dialog within their own institutions about the context-dependent nature of the burdens of climate change, and values and policies that permit it to worsen. PMID:26180551

  19. Perspectives on improvement of reproduction in cattle during heat stress in a future Japan.

    PubMed

    Kadokawa, Hiroya; Sakatani, Miki; Hansen, Peter J

    2012-06-01

    Heat stress (HS) causes hyperthermia, and at its most severe form, can lead to death. More commonly, HS reduces feed intake, milk yield, growth rate and reproductive function in many mammals and birds, including the important cattle breeds in Japan. Rectal temperatures greater than 39.0°C and respiration rates greater than 60/min indicate cows are undergoing HS sufficient to affect milk yield and fertility. HS compromises oocyte quality and embryonic development, reduces expression of estrus and changes secretion of several reproductive hormones. One of the most effective ways to reduce the magnitude of HS is embryo transfer, which bypasses the inhibitory effects of HS on the oocyte and early embryo. It may also be possible to select for genetic resistance to HS. Cooling can also improve reproductive performance in cows and heifers, and probably, the most effective cooling systems currently in use are those that couple evaporative cooling with tunnel ventilation or cross ventilation. Its effect on improving reproductive performance in Japan remains to be evaluated.

  20. Caribbean Heat Threatens Health, Well-being and the Future of Humanity.

    PubMed

    Macpherson, Cheryl C; Akpinar-Elci, Muge

    2015-07-01

    Climate change has substantial impacts on public health and safety, disease risks and the provision of health care, with the poor being particularly disadvantaged. Management of the associated health risks and changing health service requirements requires adequate responses at local levels. Health-care providers are central to these responses. While climate change raises ethical questions about its causes, impacts and social justice, medicine and bioethics typically focus on individual patients and research participants rather than these broader issues. We broaden this focus by examining awareness among health-care providers in the Caribbean region, where geographic and socioeconomic features pose particular vulnerabilities to climate change. In focus groups, Caribbean providers described rises in mosquito-borne, flood-related, heat-related, respiratory and mental illnesses, and attributed these to local impacts of climate change. Their discussions showed that the significance of these impacts differs in different Caribbean nations, raising policy and social justice questions. Bioethics and public health ethics are situated to frame, inform and initiate public and policy dialog about values and scientific evidence associated with climate change. We urge readers to initiate such dialog within their own institutions about the context-dependent nature of the burdens of climate change, and values and policies that permit it to worsen.

  1. Resistance of halobacterial isolates from Permian rock salt to physico-chemical extremes, including heat and a simulated Martian atmosphere.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Leuko, S.; Weidler, G.; Radax, C.; Stan-Lotter, H.

    2003-04-01

    Extremely halophilic archaebacteria (halobacteria) are found today in hypersaline surface waters, such as the brines in solar salterns, or the Dead Sea. However, from Alpine rock salt of Permo-Triassic age several species of halobacteria were isolated during the last years (1, 2). Halobacteria are not known to produce spores or dormant forms; thus it remains enigmatic how they survived in the salt sediments. Extraterrestrial halite has been detected in meteorites from Mars and from the asteroids; in addition, the Jovian moon Europa is thought to contain a salty ocean. Therefore halobacteria would be useful model organisms when considering the search for extraterrestrial life. We are developing experimental protocols to evaluate the effects of physico-chemical stress factors on halobacteria, in particular present-day Martian conditions. But the effect of higher temperatures is also of interest, since Mars may have been warmer in the past, and the Alpine salt sediments are known to have experienced local temperature peaks. Cells of Halococcus dombrowskii (2) and, for comparison, of Halobacterium sp. NRC-1 were grown in complex medium, containing up to 4 M NaCl (2). Aliquots of cultures were kept at minus 70oC for several days, or freeze-dried in a lyophilizer, or incubated at temperatures of 50 to 80oC for 24 hours, respectively. In addition, exposure experiments of halobacterial cells in a liquid nitrogen cooled Martian simulation chamber were begun. Survival of cells was evaluated by determining colony-forming units and by examination of cellular morphology by fluorescence microscopy, following staining with the LIVE-DEAD kit. Results indicated that the LIVE-DEAD kit can be successfully used in the presence of 4 M NaCl, although it was developed for tests at low ionic strength. Data will be presented which show that Hc. dombrowskii survived deep freezing, temperatures of up to 80 oC and Martian atmospheric conditions generally better than Halobacterium sp. NRC-1

  2. The contribution to future flood risk in the Severn Estuary from extreme sea level rise due to ice sheet mass loss

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Quinn, N.; Bates, P. D.; Siddall, M.

    2013-12-01

    The rate at which sea levels will rise in the coming century is of great interest to decision makers tasked with developing mitigation policies to cope with the risk of coastal inundation. Accurate estimates of future sea levels are vital in the provision of effective policy. Recent reports from UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP) suggest that mean sea levels in the UK may rise by as much as 80 cm by 2100; however, a great deal of uncertainty surrounds model predictions, particularly the contribution from ice sheets responding to climatic warming. For this reason, the application of semi-empirical modelling approaches for sea level rise predictions has increased of late, the results from which suggest that the rate of sea level rise may be greater than previously thought, exceeding 1 m by 2100. Furthermore, studies in the Red Sea indicate that rapid sea level rise beyond 1m per century has occurred in the past. In light of such research, the latest UKCIP assessment has included a H++ scenario for sea level rise in the UK of up to 1.9 m which is defined as improbable but, crucially, physically plausible. The significance of such low-probability sea level rise scenarios upon the estimation of future flood risk is assessed using the Somerset levels (UK) as a case study. A simple asymmetric probability distribution is constructed to include sea level rise scenarios of up to 1.9 m by 2100 which are added to a current 1:200 year event water level to force a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model of coastal inundation. From the resulting ensemble predictions an estimation of risk by 2100 is established. The results indicate that although the likelihood of extreme sea level rise due to rapid ice sheet mass loss is low, the resulting hazard can be large, resulting in a significant (27%) increase to the projected annual risk. Furthermore, current defence construction guidelines for the coming century in the UK are expected to account for 95% of the sea level rise distribution

  3. Coping with heat in the city: what can we learn from a survey immediately after a hot weather period for future heat waves?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kunz-Plapp, Tina; Schipper, Hans; Hackenbruch, Julia

    2015-04-01

    Karlsruhe is one of the hottest cities in Germany with a temperature record of 40.2°C in August 2003. In 2013, two hot weather periods with continuous heat warnings by the German Weather Service for 7 and 8 days occurred during the second half of July and first 10 days of August 2013, and in early August the temperatures in Karlsruhe almost reached again the record of 40.2°C. To understand how citizens experienced the heat and what strategies they used to cope with the heat, we conducted a questionnaire survey on subjective heat stress and coping strategies immediately after the hot weather period. Based on a holistic approach the questionnaire included questions on heat stress experience in different contexts of daily life, health impacts of the heat, coping measures, housing conditions, urban environment, living conditions, and socio-demographic characteristics. The responses of the 323 survey participants living and working in Karlsruhe show that they on average experienced the heat as rather stressful event, whereby the heat stress experienced at home was significant lower than heat stress experienced at work or in general. Regression analyses show that, among the factors included in the questionnaire, the health impairments suffered during the heat, the control belief and the coping measures implemented mainly determine heat stress experienced in general and at work. For the subjective heat stress at home, factors of the built urban environment such as heat loading of district, living in the attic or the ground floor, and heat protection elements of the inhabited building also played a role. At the same time, the way the respondents used different coping strategies in context of their daily activities and routines during heat suggests lessons to learn from this event how individual response to heat differs from responses to other types of natural hazards.

  4. Regional climate modeling of heat stress, frost, and water stress events in the agricultural region of Southwest Western Australia under the current climate and future climate scenarios.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kala, Jatin; Lyons, Tom J.; Abbs, Deborah J.; Foster, Ian J.

    2010-05-01

    Heat stress, frost, and water stress events have significant impacts on grain quality and production within the agricultural region (wheat-belt) of Southwest Western Australia (SWWA) (Cramb, 2000) and understanding how the frequency and intensity of these events will change in the future is crucial for management purposes. Hence, the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (Pielke et al, 1992) (RAMS Version 6.0) is used to simulate the past 10 years of the climate of SWWA at a 20 km grid resolution by down-scaling the 6-hourly 1.0 by 1.0 degree National Center for Environmental Prediction Final Analyses from December 1999 to Present. Daily minimum and maximum temperatures, as well as daily rainfall are validated against observations. Simulations of future climate are carried out by down-scaling the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) Mark 3.5 General Circulation Model (Gordon et al, 2002) for 10 years (2046-2055) under the SRES A2 scenario using the Cubic Conformal Atmospheric Model (CCAM) (McGregor and Dix, 2008). The 6-hourly CCAM output is then downscaled to a 20 km resolution using RAMS. Changes in extreme events are discussed within the context of the continued viability of agriculture in SWWA. Cramb, J. (2000) Climate in relation to agriculture in south-western Australia. In: The Wheat Book (Eds W. K. Anderson and J. R. Garlinge). Bulletin 4443. Department of Agriculture, Western Australia. Gordon, H. B., Rotstayn, L. D., McGregor, J. L., Dix, M. R., Kowalczyk, E. A., O'Farrell, S. P., Waterman, L. J., Hirst, A. C., Wilson, S. G., Collier, M. A., Watterson, I. G., and Elliott, T. I. (2002). The CSIRO Mk3 Climate System Model [Electronic publication]. Aspendale: CSIRO Atmospheric Research. (CSIRO Atmospheric Research technical paper; no. 60). 130 p McGregor, J. L., and Dix, M. R., (2008) An updated description of the conformal-cubic atmospheric model. High Resolution Simulation of the Atmosphere and Ocean, Hamilton, K. and Ohfuchi

  5. Rising sea levels will reduce extreme temperature variations in tide-dominated reef habitats

    PubMed Central

    Lowe, Ryan Joseph; Pivan, Xavier; Falter, James; Symonds, Graham; Gruber, Renee

    2016-01-01

    Temperatures within shallow reefs often differ substantially from those in the surrounding ocean; therefore, predicting future patterns of thermal stresses and bleaching at the scale of reefs depends on accurately predicting reef heat budgets. We present a new framework for quantifying how tidal and solar heating cycles interact with reef morphology to control diurnal temperature extremes within shallow, tidally forced reefs. Using data from northwestern Australia, we construct a heat budget model to investigate how frequency differences between the dominant lunar semidiurnal tide and diurnal solar cycle drive ~15-day modulations in diurnal temperature extremes. The model is extended to show how reefs with tidal amplitudes comparable to their depth, relative to mean sea level, tend to experience the largest temperature extremes globally. As a consequence, we reveal how even a modest sea level rise can substantially reduce temperature extremes within tide-dominated reefs, thereby partially offsetting the local effects of future ocean warming. PMID:27540589

  6. Rising sea levels will reduce extreme temperature variations in tide-dominated reef habitats.

    PubMed

    Lowe, Ryan Joseph; Pivan, Xavier; Falter, James; Symonds, Graham; Gruber, Renee

    2016-08-01

    Temperatures within shallow reefs often differ substantially from those in the surrounding ocean; therefore, predicting future patterns of thermal stresses and bleaching at the scale of reefs depends on accurately predicting reef heat budgets. We present a new framework for quantifying how tidal and solar heating cycles interact with reef morphology to control diurnal temperature extremes within shallow, tidally forced reefs. Using data from northwestern Australia, we construct a heat budget model to investigate how frequency differences between the dominant lunar semidiurnal tide and diurnal solar cycle drive ~15-day modulations in diurnal temperature extremes. The model is extended to show how reefs with tidal amplitudes comparable to their depth, relative to mean sea level, tend to experience the largest temperature extremes globally. As a consequence, we reveal how even a modest sea level rise can substantially reduce temperature extremes within tide-dominated reefs, thereby partially offsetting the local effects of future ocean warming.

  7. Climate extremes and the carbon cycle (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reichstein, M.; Bahn, M.; Ciais, P.; Mahecha, M. D.; Seneviratne, S. I.; Zscheischler, J.

    2013-12-01

    The terrestrial biosphere is a key component of the global carbon cycle and its carbon balance is strongly influenced by climate. Ongoing environmental changes are thought to increase global terrestrial carbon uptake. But evidence is mounting that rare climate extremes can lead to a decrease in ecosystem carbon stocks and therefore have the potential to negate the expected increase in terrestrial carbon uptake. Here we explore the mechanisms and impacts of climate extremes on the terrestrial carbon cycle, and propose a pathway to improve our understanding of present and future impacts of climate extremes on the terrestrial carbon budget. In addition to direct impact on the carbon fluxes of photosynthesis and respiration via extreme temperature and (or) drought, effects of extreme events may also lead to lagged responses, such as wildfires triggered by heat waves and droughts, or pest and pathogen outbreaks following wind-throw caused by heavy storms, reduced plant health due to drought stress or due to less frequent cold extremes in presently cold regions. One extreme event can potentially override accumulated previous carbon sinks, as shown by the Western European 2003 heat wave.. Extreme events have the potential to affect the terrestrial ecosystem carbon balance through a single factor, or as a combination of factors. Climate extremes can cause carbon losses from accumulated stocks, as well as long-lasting impacts on (e.g. lagged effects) on plant growth and mortality, extending beyond the duration of the extreme event itself. The sensitivity of terrestrial ecosystems and their carbon balance to climate change and extreme events varies according to the type of extreme, the climatic region, the land cover, and the land management. Extreme event impacts are very relevant in forests due to the importance of lagged and memory effects on tree growth and mortality, the longevity of tree species, the large forest carbon stocks and their vulnerability, as well as the

  8. Estimating heat stress from climate-based indicators: present-day biases and future spreads in the CMIP5 global climate model ensemble

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhao, Y.; Ducharne, A.; Sultan, B.; Braconnot, P.; Vautard, R.

    2015-08-01

    The increased exposure of human populations to heat stress is one of the likely consequences of global warming, and it has detrimental effects on health and labor capacity. Here, we consider the evolution of heat stress under climate change using 21 general circulation models (GCMs). Three heat stress indicators, based on both temperature and humidity conditions, are used to investigate present-day model biases and spreads in future climate projections. Present day estimates of heat stress indicators from observational data shows that humid tropical areas tend to experience more frequent heat stress than other regions do, with a total frequency of heat stress 250-300 d yr-1. The most severe heat stress is found in the Sahel and south India. Present-day GCM simulations tend to underestimate heat stress over the tropics due to dry and cold model biases. The model based estimates are in better agreement with observation in mid to high latitudes, but this is due to compensating errors in humidity and temperature. The severity of heat stress is projected to increase by the end of the century under climate change scenario RCP8.5, reaching unprecedented levels in some regions compared with observations. An analysis of the different factors contributing to the total spread of projected heat stress shows that spread is primarily driven by the choice of GCMs rather than the choice of indicators, even when the simulated indicators are bias-corrected. This supports the utility of the multi-model ensemble approach to assess the impacts of climate change on heat stress.

  9. Heat exposure, cardiovascular stress and work productivity in rice harvesters in India: implications for a climate change future.

    PubMed

    Sahu, Subhashis; Sett, Moumita; Kjellstrom, Tord

    2013-01-01

    Excessive workplace heat exposures create well-known risks of heat stroke, and it limits the workers' capacity to sustain physical activity. There is very limited evidence available on how these effects reduce work productivity, while the quantitative relationship between heat and work productivity is an essential basis for climate change impact assessments. We measured hourly heat exposure in rice fields in West Bengal and recorded perceived health problems via interviews of 124 rice harvesters. In a sub-group (n = 48) heart rate was recorded every minute in a standard work situation. Work productivity was recorded as hourly rice bundle collection output. The hourly heat levels (WBGT = Wet Bulb Globe Temperature) were 26-32°C (at air temperatures of 30-38°C), exceeding international standards. Most workers reported exhaustion and pain during work on hot days. Heart rate recovered quickly at low heat, but more slowly at high heat, indicating cardiovascular strain. The hourly number of rice bundles collected was significantly reduced at WBGT>26°C (approximately 5% per°C of increased WBGT). We conclude that high heat exposure in agriculture caused heat strain and reduced work productivity. This reduction will be exacerbated by climate change and may undermine the local economy.

  10. It's Not Just the Heat, It's the Humidity: Downscaled Wet-Bulb Temperature Projections and Implication for Future Summer Experiences from the American Climate Prospectus

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rasmussen, D.; Kopp, R. E., III

    2014-12-01

    The health impacts of extreme heat are significantly aggravated when combined with high humidity [1]. Wet-bulb temperature (TwT_w), measured by wrapping a thermometer in a wetted cloth and fully ventilating it, provides a physical metric of the combined effect of both heat and humidity. TwT_w in excess of 30∘^circC is extremely dangerous and has been observed in the US only during the peak of the 1995 Midwest heat wave. Historically unprecedented TwT_w in excess of 33∘^circC represents an extreme threat to human health, with heat stroke likely for fit individuals after less than one hour of shaded activity [2,3]. We present an empirical method for generating downscaled probability distributions of daily maximum TwT_w conditional on dry-bulb temperature. The approach is based upon the statistical relationship between these two parameters, as estimated from reanalysis data. Using statistically downscaled temperature projections for Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 8.5, 4.5 and 2.6, we project changes in TwT_w for the next two centuries. We find that dangerously humid days (TwT_w > 27∘^circC) will become increasingly common in the eastern U.S. under RCP 8.5, with the expected number of days per summer surpassing those of Louisiana today in Chicago in 25 years, Washington, D.C. in 30 years, New York City in 50 years and Portland in 60 years. By the end of the century under RCP 8.5, one extraordinarily dangerous (TwT_w > 33∘^circC) day per year is expected in counties currently home to about one-third of the U.S. population. Mitigation can significantly the expected number of extreme wet-bulb temperature days, with only one-eighth of the U.S. population in counties with a 1-in-10 chance per year of an extraordinarily dangerous day by the end of the century under RCP 4.5. References: [1] Liang et al. (2011), Building and Environment 46: 2472-2479, doi:10.1016/j.buildenv.2011.06.013. [2] T. Houser et al. (2014), American Climate Prospectus, www

  11. Charge exchange recombination spectroscopy measurements in the extreme ultraviolet region of central carbon concentrations during high power neutral beam heating in TFTR (Tokamak Fusion Test Reactor)

    SciTech Connect

    Stratton, B.C.; Fonck, R.J.; Ramsey, A.T.; Synakowski, E.J.; Grek, B.; Hill, K.W.; Johnson, D.W.; Mansfield, D.K.; Park, H.; Taylor, G.; Valanju, P.M. . Plasma Physics Lab.; Texas Univ., Austin, TX . Fusion Research Center)

    1989-09-01

    The carbon concentration in the central region of TFTR discharges with high power neutral beam heating has been measured by charge-extracted recombination spectroscopy (CXRS) of the C{sup +5} n = 3--4 transition in the extreme ultraviolet region. The carbon concentrations were deduced from absolute measurements of the line brightness using a calculation of the beam attenuation and the appropriate cascade-corrected line excitation rates. As a result of the high ion temperatures in most of the discharges, the contribution of beam halo neutrals to the line brightness was significant and therefore had to be included in the modeling of the data. Carbon concentrations have been measured in discharges with I{sub p} = 1.0-1.6 MA and beam power in the range of 2.6-30 MW, including a number of supershots. The results are in good agreement with carbon concentrations deduced from the visible bremsstrahlung Z{sub eff} and metallic impurity concentrations measured by x-ray pulse-height analysis, demonstrating the reliability of the atomic rates used in the beam attenuation and line excitation calculations. Carbon is the dominant impurity species in these discharges; the oxygen concentration measured via CXRS in a high beam power case was 0.0006 of n{sub e}, compard to 0.04 for carbon. Trends with I{sub p} and beam power in the carbon concentration and the inferred deuteron concentration are presented. The carbon concentration is independent of I{sub p} and decreases from 0.13 at 2.6 MW beam power to 0.04 at 30 MW, while the deuteron concentration increases from 0.25 to 0.75 over the same range of beam power. These changes are primarily the result of beam particle fueling, as the carbon density did not vary significantly with beam power. The time evolutions of the carbon and deuteron concentrations during two high power beam pulses, one which exhibited a carbon bloom and one which did not, are compared. 30 refs., 12 figs., 2 tabs.

  12. Responses of greenhouse gas fluxes to climate extremes in a semiarid grassland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Linfeng; Fan, Wenyu; Kang, Xiaoming; Wang, Yanfen; Cui, Xiaoyong; Xu, Chengyuan; Griffin, Kevin L.; Hao, Yanbin

    2016-10-01

    Climate extremes are expected to increase in frequency and intensity as a consequence of anthropogenic climate change attributed to the rise of atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs). However, studies on the impacts of climate extremes on terrestrial ecosystems are limited. Here, we experimentally imposed extreme drought and a heat wave (∼60-year recurrence) to investigate their effects on GHGs fluxes of a semiarid grassland in China. We estimated a 16% and 38% percent reduction in net ecosystem CO2 uptake caused by the heat wave and drought respectively, but via different mechanisms. Drought reduced gross ecosystem productively (GEP) and to a lower extent ecosystem respiration (ER). By contrast, the simulated heat wave suppressed only GEP while ER remained stable. The climate extremes also created a legacy effect on GEP and NEE lasting until the end of the growing season, whereas ER recovered immediately. Although CH4 and N2O fluxes were unaffected by the heat wave, drought promoted CH4 uptake and suppressed N2O emission during the treatment period. The effect of drought on GHGs fluxes generally overwhelmed that of the heat wave treatment, and there were no interactive effects of these two types of climate extremes. Our results showed that responses of ecosystem GHGs exchange to climate extremes are strongly regulated by soil moisture status. In conclusion, future amplification of climate extremes could decrease the sink for GHGs, especially CO2, in this semiarid grasslands.

  13. A preliminary design and analysis of an advanced heat-rejection system for an extreme altitude advanced variable cycle diesel engine installed in a high-altitude advanced research platform

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Johnston, Richard P.

    1992-01-01

    Satellite surveillance in such areas as the Antarctic indicates that from time to time concentration of ozone grows and shrinks. An effort to obtain useful atmospheric data for determining the causes of ozone depletion would require a flight capable of reaching altitudes of at least 100,000 ft and flying subsonically during the sampling portion of the mission. A study of a heat rejection system for an advanced variable cycle diesel (AVCD) engine was conducted. The engine was installed in an extreme altitude, high altitude advanced research platform. Results indicate that the waste heat from an AVCD engine propulsion system can be rejected at the maximum cruise altitude of 120,000 ft. Fifteen performance points, reflecting the behavior of the engine as the vehicle proceeded through the mission, were used to characterize the heat exchanger operation. That portion of the study is described in a appendix titled, 'A Detailed Study of the Heat Rejection System for an Extreme Altitude Atmospheric Sampling Aircraft,' by a consultant, Mr. James Bourne, Lytron, Incorporated.

  14. Compound extremes in a changing climate - a Markov chain approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sedlmeier, Katrin; Mieruch, Sebastian; Schädler, Gerd; Kottmeier, Christoph

    2016-11-01

    Studies using climate models and observed trends indicate that extreme weather has changed and may continue to change in the future. The potential impact of extreme events such as heat waves or droughts depends not only on their number of occurrences but also on "how these extremes occur", i.e., the interplay and succession of the events. These quantities are quite unexplored, for past changes as well as for future changes and call for sophisticated methods of analysis. To address this issue, we use Markov chains for the analysis of the dynamics and succession of multivariate or compound extreme events. We apply the method to observational data (1951-2010) and an ensemble of regional climate simulations for central Europe (1971-2000, 2021-2050) for two types of compound extremes, heavy precipitation and cold in winter and hot and dry days in summer. We identify three regions in Europe, which turned out to be likely susceptible to a future change in the succession of heavy precipitation and cold in winter, including a region in southwestern France, northern Germany and in Russia around Moscow. A change in the succession of hot and dry days in summer can be expected for regions in Spain and Bulgaria. The susceptibility to a dynamic change of hot and dry extremes in the Russian region will probably decrease.

  15. Will extreme climatic events facilitate biological invasions?

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Extreme climatic events, such as intense heat waves, hurricanes, floods and droughts, can dramatically affect ecological and evolutionary processes, and more extreme events are projected with ongoing climate change. However, the implications of these events for biological invasions, which themselves...

  16. Ocean-Atmosphere Heat Exchange: Limitations of Currently Available Datasets and Potential for Future Progress (Solicited Talk)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Josey, Simon

    2016-04-01

    The flux of heat between the ocean and the atmosphere is a key element of the global climate system, central to variations in the ocean heat budget and variations in surface temperature. Factors determining the heat exchange will be discussed using models and observations with an emphasis on the period 1990-2015. This period include changes associated with the potential warming hiatus and more recently the major El Nino event that developed in 2015. The ability of leading datasets to reliably estimate surface flux changes is limited by a number of factors and these will be discussed in the context of variations in other components of the climate system. Progress towards obtaining more reliable climatological estimates of the heat exchange will also be considered with reference to recent developments using residual techniques and ocean reanalyses in addition to atmospheric reanalysis, remote sensing and ship based datasets. In addition, use of surface meteorological fields to generate ocean model forcing will be examined together with recent developments using high resolution coupled ocean-atmosphere models. Finally, the potential for significant advances in regions of major uncertainty using the growing network of surface flux buoys will be discussed with a focus on two moorings now in place in the Southern Ocean.

  17. Compound summer temperature and precipitation extremes over central Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sedlmeier, Katrin; Feldmann, H.; Schädler, G.

    2017-02-01

    Reliable knowledge of the near-future climate change signal of extremes is important for adaptation and mitigation strategies. Especially compound extremes, like heat and drought occurring simultaneously, may have a greater impact on society than their univariate counterparts and have recently become an active field of study. In this paper, we use a 12-member ensemble of high-resolution (7 km) regional climate simulations with the regional climate model COSMO-CLM over central Europe to analyze the climate change signal and its uncertainty for compound heat and drought extremes in summer by two different measures: one describing absolute (i.e., number of exceedances of absolute thresholds like hot days), the other relative (i.e., number of exceedances of time series intrinsic thresholds) compound extreme events. Changes are assessed between a reference period (1971-2000) and a projection period (2021-2050). Our findings show an increase in the number of absolute compound events for the whole investigation area. The change signal of relative extremes is more region-dependent, but there is a strong signal change in the southern and eastern parts of Germany and the neighboring countries. Especially the Czech Republic shows strong change in absolute and relative extreme events.

  18. Electronics for Extreme Environments

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Patel, J. U.; Cressler, J.; Li, Y.; Niu, G.

    2001-01-01

    Most of the NASA missions involve extreme environments comprising radiation and low or high temperatures. Current practice of providing friendly ambient operating environment to electronics costs considerable power and mass (for shielding). Immediate missions such as the Europa orbiter and lander and Mars landers require the electronics to perform reliably in extreme conditions during the most critical part of the mission. Some other missions planned in the future also involve substantial surface activity in terms of measurements, sample collection, penetration through ice and crust and the analysis of samples. Thus it is extremely critical to develop electronics that could reliably operate under extreme space environments. Silicon On Insulator (SOI) technology is an extremely attractive candidate for NASA's future low power and high speed electronic systems because it offers increased transconductance, decreased sub-threshold slope, reduced short channel effects, elimination of kink effect, enhanced low field mobility, and immunity from radiation induced latch-up. A common belief that semiconductor devices function better at low temperatures is generally true for bulk devices but it does not hold true for deep sub-micron SOI CMOS devices with microscopic device features of 0.25 micrometers and smaller. Various temperature sensitive device parameters and device characteristics have recently been reported in the literature. Behavior of state of the art technology devices under such conditions needs to be evaluated in order to determine possible modifications in the device design for better performance and survivability under extreme environments. Here, we present a unique approach of developing electronics for extreme environments to benefit future NASA missions as described above. This will also benefit other long transit/life time missions such as the solar sail and planetary outposts in which electronics is out open in the unshielded space at the ambient space

  19. Investigating NARCCAP Precipitation Extremes via Bivariate Extreme Value Theory (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weller, G. B.; Cooley, D. S.; Sain, S. R.; Bukovsky, M. S.; Mearns, L. O.

    2013-12-01

    We introduce methodology from statistical extreme value theory to examine the ability of reanalysis-drive regional climate models to simulate past daily precipitation extremes. Going beyond a comparison of summary statistics such as 20-year return values, we study whether the most extreme precipitation events produced by climate model simulations exhibit correspondence to the most extreme events seen in observational records. The extent of this correspondence is formulated via the statistical concept of tail dependence. We examine several case studies of extreme precipitation events simulated by the six models of the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) driven by NCEP reanalysis. It is found that the NARCCAP models generally reproduce daily winter precipitation extremes along the Pacific coast quite well; in contrast, simulation of past daily summer precipitation extremes in a central US region is poor. Some differences in the strength of extremal correspondence are seen in the central region between models which employ spectral nudging and those which do not. We demonstrate how these techniques may be used to draw a link between extreme precipitation events and large-scale atmospheric drivers, as well as to downscale extreme precipitation simulated by a future run of a regional climate model. Specifically, we examine potential future changes in the nature of extreme precipitation along the Pacific coast produced by the pineapple express (PE) phenomenon. A link between extreme precipitation events and a "PE Index" derived from North Pacific sea-surface pressure fields is found. This link is used to study PE-influenced extreme precipitation produced by a future-scenario climate model run.

  20. Present Status and Future of EUV (Extreme Ultra Violet) Light Source Research 5.Discharge Produced Plasma Light Sources 5.2Technical Issues Regarding the Practical Application and Future Prospects of a Discharge Produced Plasma Sources for Lithography

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sato, Hiroto

    Some important issues for the practical application of a discharge-basedEUV source for lithography are described. Innovative ideas taking into consideration both plasma physics and technological elements such as pulse power, materials, and heat management are required for the solution of key issues. Engineering approaches are described with the development plan of the EUVA. It is necessary to consider the factors relating to the issue as a whole in research and development in order to produce a clean, high power and high quality photon.

  1. Sensitivity of UK butterflies to local climatic extremes: which life stages are most at risk?

    PubMed

    McDermott Long, Osgur; Warren, Rachel; Price, Jeff; Brereton, Tom M; Botham, Marc S; Franco, Aldina M A

    2017-01-01

    There is growing recognition as to the importance of extreme climatic events (ECEs) in determining changes in species populations. In fact, it is often the extent of climate variability that determines a population's ability to persist at a given site. This study examined the impact of ECEs on the resident UK butterfly species (n = 41) over a 37-year period. The study investigated the sensitivity of butterflies to four extremes (drought, extreme precipitation, extreme heat and extreme cold), identified at the site level, across each species' life stages. Variations in the vulnerability of butterflies at the site level were also compared based on three life-history traits (voltinism, habitat requirement and range). This is the first study to examine the effects of ECEs at the site level across all life stages of a butterfly, identifying sensitive life stages and unravelling the role life-history traits play in species sensitivity to ECEs. Butterfly population changes were found to be primarily driven by temperature extremes. Extreme heat was detrimental during overwintering periods and beneficial during adult periods and extreme cold had opposite impacts on both of these life stages. Previously undocumented detrimental effects were identified for extreme precipitation during the pupal life stage for univoltine species. Generalists were found to have significantly more negative associations with ECEs than specialists. With future projections of warmer, wetter winters and more severe weather events, UK butterflies could come under severe pressure given the findings of this study.

  2. Climate change and rising heat: population health implications for working people in Australia.

    PubMed

    Hanna, Elizabeth G; Kjellstrom, Tord; Bennett, Charmian; Dear, Keith

    2011-03-01

    The rapid rise in extreme heat events in Australia recently is already taking a health toll. Climate change scenarios predict increases in the frequency and intensity of extreme heat events in the future, and population health may be significantly compromised for people who cannot reduce their heat exposure. Exposure to extreme heat presents a health hazard to all who are physically active, particularly outdoor workers and indoor workers with minimal access to cooling systems while working. At air temperatures close to (or beyond) the core body temperature of 37°C, body cooling via sweating is essential, and this mechanism is hampered by high air humidity. Heat exposure among elite athletes and the military has been investigated, whereas the impacts on workers remain largely unexplored, particularly in relation to future climate change. Workers span all age groups and diverse levels of fitness and health status, including people with higher than "normal" sensitivity to heat. In a hotter world, workers are likely to experience more heat stress and find it increasingly difficult to maintain productivity. Modeling of future climate change in Australia shows a substantial increase in the number of very hot days (>35°C) across the country. In this article, the authors characterize the health risks associated with heat exposure on working people and discuss future exposure risks as temperatures rise. Progress toward developing occupational health and safety guidelines for heat in Australia are summarized.

  3. Perceptions of Workplace Heat Exposure and Controls among Occupational Hygienists and Relevant Specialists in Australia

    PubMed Central

    Xiang, Jianjun; Hansen, Alana; Pisaniello, Dino; Bi, Peng

    2015-01-01

    With warmer weather projections, workplace heat exposure is presenting a growing challenge to workers’ health and safety. Occupational hygienists are the specialist group conducting measurements and providing advice on heat stress management to industry. In order to provide insights into hygienists perceptions on workplace heat exposure, current and future preparedness for extreme heat, and barriers to possible heat adaptation strategies, a self-administered questionnaire survey was conducted during a national conference of the Australian Institute of Occupational Hygienists. Nearly 90% of the 180 respondents were at least moderately concerned about extreme heat and 19% were dissatisfied with current heat stress prevention measures. Barriers recognized by the participants were lack of awareness (68%), insufficient training (56%), unsatisfactory management commitment (52%), and low compliance with prevention policies (40%). The findings suggest a need to refine occupational heat management and prevention strategies. PMID:26287608

  4. Perceptions of Workplace Heat Exposure and Controls among Occupational Hygienists and Relevant Specialists in Australia.

    PubMed

    Xiang, Jianjun; Hansen, Alana; Pisaniello, Dino; Bi, Peng

    2015-01-01

    With warmer weather projections, workplace heat exposure is presenting a growing challenge to workers' health and safety. Occupational hygienists are the specialist group conducting measurements and providing advice on heat stress management to industry. In order to provide insights into hygienists perceptions on workplace heat exposure, current and future preparedness for extreme heat, and barriers to possible heat adaptation strategies, a self-administered questionnaire survey was conducted during a national conference of the Australian Institute of Occupational Hygienists. Nearly 90% of the 180 respondents were at least moderately concerned about extreme heat and 19% were dissatisfied with current heat stress prevention measures. Barriers recognized by the participants were lack of awareness (68%), insufficient training (56%), unsatisfactory management commitment (52%), and low compliance with prevention policies (40%). The findings suggest a need to refine occupational heat management and prevention strategies.

  5. Impact of increasing heat waves on U.S. ozone episodes in the 2050s: Results from a multimodel analysis using extreme value theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shen, L.; Mickley, L. J.; Gilleland, E.

    2016-04-01

    We develop a statistical model using extreme value theory to estimate the 2000-2050 changes in ozone episodes across the United States. We model the relationships between daily maximum temperature (Tmax) and maximum daily 8 h average (MDA8) ozone in May-September over 2003-2012 using a Point Process (PP) model. At ~20% of the sites, a marked decrease in the ozone-temperature slope occurs at high temperatures, defined as ozone suppression. The PP model sometimes fails to capture ozone-Tmax relationships, so we refit the ozone-Tmax slope using logistic regression and a generalized Pareto distribution model. We then apply the resulting hybrid-extreme value theory model to projections of Tmax from an ensemble of downscaled climate models. Assuming constant anthropogenic emissions at the present level, we find an average increase of 2.3 d a-1 in ozone episodes (>75 ppbv) across the United States by the 2050s, with a change of +3-9 d a-1 at many sites.

  6. Linking Excessive Heat with Daily Heat-Related Mortality over the Coterminous United States

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Quattrochi, Dale A.; Crosson, William L.; Al-Hamdan, Mohammad Z.; Estes, Maurice G., Jr.

    2014-01-01

    In the United States, extreme heat is the most deadly weather-related hazard. In the face of a warming climate and urbanization, which contributes to local-scale urban heat islands, it is very likely that extreme heat events (EHEs) will become more common and more severe in the U.S. This research seeks to provide historical and future measures of climate-driven extreme heat events to enable assessments of the impacts of heat on public health over the coterminous U.S. We use atmospheric temperature and humidity information from meteorological reanalysis and from Global Climate Models (GCMs) to provide data on past and future heat events. The focus of research is on providing assessments of the magnitude, frequency and geographic distribution of extreme heat in the U.S. to facilitate public health studies. In our approach, long-term climate change is captured with GCM outputs, and the temporal and spatial characteristics of short-term extremes are represented by the reanalysis data. Two future time horizons for 2040 and 2090 are compared to the recent past period of 1981- 2000. We characterize regional-scale temperature and humidity conditions using GCM outputs for two climate change scenarios (A2 and A1B) defined in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). For each future period, 20 years of multi-model GCM outputs are analyzed to develop a 'heat stress climatology' based on statistics of extreme heat indicators. Differences between the two future and the past period are used to define temperature and humidity changes on a monthly time scale and regional spatial scale. These changes are combined with the historical meteorological data, which is hourly and at a spatial scale (12 km) much finer than that of GCMs, to create future climate realizations. From these realizations, we compute the daily heat stress measures and related spatially-specific climatological fields, such as the mean annual number of days above certain thresholds of maximum and minimum air

  7. Particulate matters emitted from maize straw burning for winter heating in rural areas in Guanzhong Plain, China: Current emission and future reduction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sun, Jian; Shen, Zhenxing; Cao, Junji; Zhang, Leiming; Wu, Tingting; Zhang, Qian; Yin, Xiuli; Lei, Yali; Huang, Yu; Huang, R.-J.; Liu, Suixin; Han, Yongming; Xu, Hongmei; Zheng, Chunli; Liu, Pingping

    2017-02-01

    Maize straw smoldering in "Heated Kang" is the traditional way for heating in winter in rural areas of Guanzhong Plain. This smolder procedure produced large quantities of pollutants and got more and more concern from both public and researchers. In this study, on-site measurements of straw smoldering in a residence with a Chinese 'Heated Kang' (Scenario 1) were done to determine the emissions factors (EFs) for pollutants. Moreover, EFs of pollutants from an advanced stove fired with maize straw (Scenario 2) and maize-straw pellet (Scenario 3) had been conducted in a laboratory to find the new measure to reduce the pollution emissions. The results showed that the EFs of PM2.5 for three scenarios were 38.26 ± 13.94 g·kg- 1, 17.50 ± 8.29 g·kg- 1 and 2.95 ± 0.71 g·kg- 1, respectively. Comparing EFs of pollutants from 3 scenarios indicates that both briquetting of straw and advanced stove with air distribution system could efficiently reduce pollutants emission especially for Scenario 3. In detail, EFs of PM2.5, OC, EC and water soluble ions all have over 90% reduction between Scenarios 1 and 3. All particle-size distributions were unimodal, and all peaked in particle sizes < 0.47 μm. The EFs for K+ and Cl- were the highest of cations and anions for the majority of size groups. Converting to pellets and advanced stoves for residential heating could reduce PM2.5 emission from 48.3 Gg to 3.59 Gg, OC from 19.0 Gg to 0.91 Gg, EC from 1.7 Gg to 0.17 Gg and over 90% reduction on total water soluble ions in the whole region. A box model simulation for the Guanzhong Plain indicated that this conversion would lead to a 7.7% reduction in PM2.5 (from 130 to 120 μg·m- 3) in normal conditions and a 14.2% reduction (from 350 to 300 μg·m- 3) in hazy conditions. The results highlighted that the straw pellets burning in advanced stove can effectively reduce pollutants emitted and improve the energy use efficiency in comparison with maize straw smoldering in "Heated Kang

  8. Religious Extremism in Pakistan

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2014-12-01

    Face (July 2008): 32. 21 Ahmed Rashid , Pakistan on the Brink: The Future of America, Pakistan, and Afghanistan (New York: Viking, 2012). 22 Brian J...promoting extremism. Commentators such as Jessica Stern, Alan Richards, Hussain Haqqani, Ahmed Rashid , and Ali Riaz are a few of the scholars who...www.jstor.org/stable/3183558; See also Ahmed Rashid , Descent Into Chaos: The United States and the Failure of Nation Building in Pakistan, Afghanistan, and

  9. Heat waves and urban heat islands in Europe: A review of relevant drivers.

    PubMed

    Ward, Kathrin; Lauf, Steffen; Kleinschmit, Birgit; Endlicher, Wilfried

    2016-11-01

    The climate change and the proceeding urbanization create future health challenges. Consequently, more people around the globe will be impaired by extreme weather events, such as heat waves. This study investigates the causes for the emergence of surface urban heat islands and its change during heat waves in 70 European cities. A newly created climate class indicator, a set of meaningful landscape metrics, and two population-related parameters were applied to describe the Surface Urban Heat Island Magnitude (SUHIM) - the mean temperature increase within the urban heat island compared to its surrounding, as well as the Heat Magnitude (HM) - the extra heat load added to the average summer SUHIM during heat waves. We evaluated the relevance of varying urban parameters within linear models. The exemplary European-wide heat wave in July 2006 was chosen and compared to the average summer conditions using MODIS land surface temperature with an improved spatial resolution of 250m. The results revealed that the initial size of the urban heat island had significant influence on SUHIM. For the explanation of HM the size of the heat island, the regional climate and the share of central urban green spaces showed to be critical. Interestingly, cities of cooler climates and cities with higher shares of urban green spaces were more affected by additional heat during heat waves. Accordingly, cooler northern European cities seem to be more vulnerable to heat waves, whereas southern European cities appear to be better adapted. Within the ascertained population and climate clusters more detailed explanations were found. Our findings improve the understanding of the urban heat island effect across European cities and its behavior under heat waves. Also, they provide some indications for urban planners on case-specific adaptation strategies to adverse urban heat caused by heat waves.

  10. Health impacts of heat in a changing climate: how can emerging science inform urban adaptation planning?

    PubMed Central

    Petkova, Elisaveta P.; Morita, Haruka

    2014-01-01

    Extreme heat is one of the most important global causes of weather-related mortality, and climate change is leading to more frequent and intense heat waves. Recent epidemiologic findings on heat-related health impacts have reinforced our understanding of mortality impacts of extreme heat and have shown a range of impacts on morbidity outcomes including cardiovascular, respiratory and mental health responses. Evidence is also emerging on temporal trends towards decreasing exposure-response, probably reflecting autonomous population adaptation. Many cities are actively engaged in the development of heat adaptation plans to reduce future health impacts. Epidemiologic research into the evolution of local heat-health responses over time can greatly aid adaptation planning for heat, prevention of adverse health outcomes among vulnerable populations, as well as evaluation of new interventions. Such research will be facilitated by the formation of research partnerships involving epidemiologists, climate scientists, and local stakeholders. PMID:25422797

  11. Pilot system on extreme climate monitoring and early warning for long range forecast in Korea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cho, K.; Park, B. K.; E-hyung, P.; Gong, Y.; Kim, H. K.; Park, S.; Min, S. K.; Yoo, H. D.

    2015-12-01

    Recently, extreme weather/climate events such as heat waves, flooding/droughts etc. have been increasing in frequency and intensity under climate change over the world. Also, they can have substantial impacts on ecosystem and human society (agriculture, health, and economy) of the affected regions. According to future projections of climate, extreme weather and climate events in Korea are expected to occure more frequently with stronger intensity over the 21st century. For the better long range forecast, it is also fundamentally ruquired to develop a supporting system in terms of extreme weather and climate events including forequency and trend. In this context, the KMA (Korea Meteorological Administration) has recently initiated a development of the extreme climate monintoring and early warning system for long range forecast, which consists of three sub-system components; (1) Real-time climate monitoring system, (2) Ensemble prediction system, and (3) Mechanism analysis and display system for climate extremes. As a first step, a pilot system has been designed focusing on temperature extremes such heat waves and cold snaps using daily, monthly and seasonal observations and model prediction output on the global, regional and national levels. In parallel, the skills of the KMA long range prediction system are being evaluated comprehensively for weather and climate extremes, for which varous case studies are conducted to better understand the observed variations of extrem climates and responsible mechanisms and also to assess predictability of the ensemble prediction system for extremes. Details in the KMA extreme climate monitoring and early warning system will be intorduced and some preliminary results will be discussed for heat/cold waves in Korea.

  12. Studies on free stream turbulence as related to gas turbine heat transfer. A review of authors' past work and future implications.

    PubMed

    Yavuzkurt, S; Iyer, G R

    2001-05-01

    A review of the past work done on free stream turbulence (FST) as applied to gas turbine heat transfer and its implications for future studies are presented. It is a comprehensive approach to the results of many individual studies in order to derive the general conclusions that could be inferred from all rather than discussing the results of each individual study. Three experimental and four modeling studies are reviewed. The first study was on prediction of heat transfer for film cooled gas turbine blades. An injection model was devised and used along with a 2-D low Reynolds number k-epsilon model of turbulence for the calculations. Reasonable predictions of heat transfer coefficients were obtained for turbulence intensity levels up to 7%. Following this modeling study a series of experimental studies were undertaken. The objective of these studies was to gain a fundamental understanding of mechanisms through which FST augments the surface heat transfer. Experiments were carried out in the boundary layer and in the free stream downstream of a gas turbine combustor simulator, which produced initial FST levels of 25.7% and large length scales (About 5-10 cm for a boundary layer 4-5 cm thick). This result showed that one possible mechanism through which FST caused an increase in heat transfer is by increasing the number of ejection events. In a number of modeling studies several well-known k-epsilon models were compared for their predictive capability of heat transfer and skin friction coefficients under moderate and high FST. Two data sets, one with moderate levels of FST (about 7%) and one with high levels of FST (about 25%) were used for this purpose. Although the models did fine in their predictions of cases with no FST (baseline cases) they failed one by one as FST levels were increased. Under high FST (25.7% initial intensity) predictions of Stanton number were between 35-100% in error compared to the measured values. Later a new additional production term

  13. Nonlinear processes reinforce extreme Indian Ocean Dipole events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ng, Benjamin; Cai, Wenju; Walsh, Kevin; Santoso, Agus

    2015-06-01

    Under global warming, climate models show an almost three-fold increase in extreme positive Indian Ocean Dipole (pIOD) events by 2100. These extreme pIODs are characterised by a westward extension of cold sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) which push the downstream atmospheric convergence further west. This induces severe drought and flooding in the surrounding countries, but the processes involved in this projected increase have not been fully examined. Here we conduct a detailed heat budget analysis of 19 models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project and show that nonlinear zonal and vertical heat advection are important for reinforcing extreme pIODs. Under greenhouse warming, these nonlinear processes do not change significantly in amplitude, but the frequency of occurrences surpassing a threshold increases. This is due to the projected weakening of the Walker circulation, which leads to the western tropical Indian Ocean warming faster than the east. As such, the magnitude of SSTAs required to shift convection westward is relatively smaller, allowing these convection shifts to occur more frequently in the future. The associated changes in wind and ocean current anomalies support the zonal and vertical advection terms in a positive feedback process and consequently, moderate pIODs become more extreme-like.

  14. Nonlinear processes reinforce extreme Indian Ocean Dipole events.

    PubMed

    Ng, Benjamin; Cai, Wenju; Walsh, Kevin; Santoso, Agus

    2015-06-26

    Under global warming, climate models show an almost three-fold increase in extreme positive Indian Ocean Dipole (pIOD) events by 2100. These extreme pIODs are characterised by a westward extension of cold sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) which push the downstream atmospheric convergence further west. This induces severe drought and flooding in the surrounding countries, but the processes involved in this projected increase have not been fully examined. Here we conduct a detailed heat budget analysis of 19 models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project and show that nonlinear zonal and vertical heat advection are important for reinforcing extreme pIODs. Under greenhouse warming, these nonlinear processes do not change significantly in amplitude, but the frequency of occurrences surpassing a threshold increases. This is due to the projected weakening of the Walker circulation, which leads to the western tropical Indian Ocean warming faster than the east. As such, the magnitude of SSTAs required to shift convection westward is relatively smaller, allowing these convection shifts to occur more frequently in the future. The associated changes in wind and ocean current anomalies support the zonal and vertical advection terms in a positive feedback process and consequently, moderate pIODs become more extreme-like.

  15. Heats of Formation for CrO, CrO2, and CrO3: An Extreme Challenge for Black-Box Composite Procedures.

    PubMed

    Chan, Bun; Karton, Amir; Raghavachari, Krishnan; Radom, Leo

    2012-09-11

    In the present study, we use composite methods, denoted CM(5)Λ and CM5, with post-CCSD(T) terms up to CCSDTQ(5)Λ and CCSDTQ5, respectively, to evaluate the atomization energies for CrO, CrO2, and CrO3. The heats of formation (ΔHf,298) based on our best estimated atomization energies are 198.3 ± 5 kJ mol(-1) (CrO), -81.3 ± 5 kJ mol(-1) (CrO2), and -286.8 ± 20 kJ mol(-1) (CrO3). Standard G4-type composite methods yield atomization energies that are adequate for CrO, less good for CrO2, and least good for CrO3. CrO3 is highly multireference in character, and therefore, a "black box" approach of using a single-reference RHF wave function is inadequate, even for "high-level" G4-type methods. We find that, for CrO3, there is a very large difference in the G4 atomization energies depending on whether an RHF or a UHF reference is used, which is mainly associated with large differences in the MP4 components. In general, we propose that a large R-versus-U difference is likely to be an indication of potential problems in the theoretical treatment. Going beyond G4 to a more rigorous UCCSD(T)-based composite scheme [termed U-CM(3:[DZ,TZ]) in the present study], we again find a large difference (but significantly smaller than that for G4) between the CrO3 atomization energies based on RHF or UHF references. Intriguingly, the use of Brueckner orbitals as reference orbitals in all components, as in the corresponding Brueckner Doubles (BD) procedure [B-CM(3:[DZ,TZ])], produces results for CrO3 that are independent of whether RHF or UHF orbitals are used as the starting point.

  16. Detecting Extreme Events in Gridded Climate Data

    SciTech Connect

    Ramachandra, Bharathkumar; Gadiraju, Krishna; Vatsavai, Raju; Kaiser, Dale Patrick; Karnowski, Thomas Paul

    2016-01-01

    Detecting and tracking extreme events in gridded climatological data is a challenging problem on several fronts: algorithms, scalability, and I/O. Successful detection of these events will give climate scientists an alternate view of the behavior of different climatological variables, leading to enhanced scientific understanding of the impacts of events such as heat and cold waves, and on a larger scale, the El Nin o Southern Oscillation. Recent advances in computing power and research in data sciences enabled us to look at this problem with a different perspective from what was previously possible. In this paper we present our computationally efficient algorithms for anomalous cluster detection on climate change big data. We provide results on detection and tracking of surface temperature and geopotential height anomalies, a trend analysis, and a study of relationships between the variables. We also identify the limitations of our approaches, future directions for research and alternate approaches.

  17. Heat-related illness.

    PubMed

    Atha, Walter F

    2013-11-01

    Environmental exposure to high temperatures can result in abnormalities ranging from mild heat exhaustion to heat stroke with multiorgan system failure. An understanding of the mechanisms of thermoregulation and how those mechanisms fail with extreme heat stress is critical for management of the patient with elevated body temperature in the emergency department.

  18. Northern Eurasian Heat Waves and Droughts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schubert, Siegfried; Wang, Hailan; Koster, Randal; Suarez, Max; Groisman, Pavel

    2013-01-01

    This article reviews our understanding of the characteristics and causes of northern Eurasian summertime heat waves and droughts. Additional insights into the nature of temperature and precipitation variability in Eurasia on monthly to decadal time scales and into the causes and predictability of the most extreme events are gained from the latest generation of reanalyses and from supplemental simulations with the NASA GEOS-5 AGCM. Key new results are: 1) the identification of the important role of summertime stationary Rossby waves in the development of the leading patterns of monthly Eurasian surface temperature and precipitation variability (including the development of extreme events such as the 2010 Russian heat wave), 2) an assessment of the mean temperature and precipitation changes that have occurred over northern Eurasia in the last three decades and their connections to decadal variability and global trends in SST, and 3) the quantification (via a case study) of the predictability of the most extreme simulated heat wave/drought events, with some focus on the role of soil moisture in the development and maintenance of such events. A literature survey indicates a general consensus that the future holds an enhanced probability of heat waves across northern Eurasia, while there is less agreement regarding future drought, reflecting a greater uncertainty in soil moisture and precipitation projections. Substantial uncertainties remain in our understanding of heat waves and drought, including the nature of the interactions between the short-term atmospheric variability associated with such extremes and the longer-term variability and trends associated with soil moisture feedbacks, SST anomalies, and an overall warming world.

  19. Upper Extremity Regional Anesthesia

    PubMed Central

    Neal, Joseph M.; Gerancher, J.C.; Hebl, James R.; Ilfeld, Brian M.; McCartney, Colin J.L.; Franco, Carlo D.; Hogan, Quinn H.

    2009-01-01

    Brachial plexus blockade is the cornerstone of the peripheral nerve regional anesthesia practice of most anesthesiologists. As part of the American Society of Regional Anesthesia and Pain Medicine’s commitment to providing intensive evidence-based education related to regional anesthesia and analgesia, this article is a complete update of our 2002 comprehensive review of upper extremity anesthesia. The text of the review focuses on (1) pertinent anatomy, (2) approaches to the brachial plexus and techniques that optimize block quality, (4) local anesthetic and adjuvant pharmacology, (5) complications, (6) perioperative issues, and (6) challenges for future research. PMID:19282714

  20. Heat waves, aging, and human cardiovascular health.

    PubMed

    Kenney, W Larry; Craighead, Daniel H; Alexander, Lacy M

    2014-10-01

    This brief review is based on a President's Lecture presented at the Annual Meeting of the American College of Sports Medicine in 2013. The purpose of this review was to assess the effects of climate change and consequent increases in environmental heat stress on the aging cardiovascular system. The earth's average global temperature is slowly but consistently increasing, and along with mean temperature changes come increases in heat wave frequency and severity. Extreme passive thermal stress resulting from prolonged elevations in ambient temperature and prolonged physical activity in hot environments creates a high demand on the left ventricle to pump blood to the skin to dissipate heat. Even healthy aging is accompanied by altered cardiovascular function, which limits the extent to which older individuals can maintain stroke volume, increase cardiac output, and increase skin blood flow when exposed to environmental extremes. In the elderly, the increased cardiovascular demand during heat waves is often fatal because of increased strain on an already compromised left ventricle. Not surprisingly, excess deaths during heat waves 1) occur predominantly in older individuals and 2) are overwhelmingly cardiovascular in origin. Increasing frequency and severity of heat waves coupled with a rapidly growing at-risk population dramatically increase the extent of future untoward health outcomes.

  1. Moving in extreme environments: what's extreme and who decides?

    PubMed

    Cotter, James David; Tipton, Michael J

    2014-01-01

    Humans work, rest and play in immensely varied extreme environments. The term 'extreme' typically refers to insufficiency or excess of one or more stressors, such as thermal energy or gravity. Individuals' behavioural and physiological capacity to endure and enjoy such environments varies immensely. Adverse effects of acute exposure to these environments are readily identifiable (e.g. heat stroke or bone fracture), whereas adverse effects of chronic exposure (e.g. stress fractures or osteoporosis) may be as important but much less discernable. Modern societies have increasingly sought to protect people from such stressors and, in that way, minimise their adverse effects. Regulations are thus established, and advice is provided on what is 'acceptable' exposure. Examples include work/rest cycles in the heat, hydration regimes, rates of ascent to and duration of stay at altitude and diving depth. While usually valuable and well intentioned, it is important to realise the breadth and importance of limitations associated with such guidelines. Regulations and advisories leave less room for self-determination, learning and perhaps adaptation. Regulations based on stress (e.g. work/rest cycles relative to WBGT) are more practical but less direct than those based on strain (e.g. core temperature), but even the latter can be substantively limited (e.g. by lack of criterion validation and allowance for behavioural regulation in the research on which they are based). Extreme Physiology & Medicine is publishing a series of reviews aimed at critically examining the issues involved with self- versus regulation-controlled human movement acutely and chronically in extreme environments. These papers, arising from a research symposium in 2013, are about the impact of people engaging in such environments and the effect of rules and guidelines on their safety, enjoyment, autonomy and productivity. The reviews will cover occupational heat stress, sporting heat stress, hydration, diving

  2. [The acclimatization to extreme environments and its physiological mechanisms].

    PubMed

    Wang, Hai; Liu, Wei; Yang, Dan-Feng; Zhao, Xiao-Ling; Long, Chao-Liang; Yin, Zhao-Yun; Liu, Jia-Ying

    2012-11-01

    Acclimatization is a process of biological adaptation when exposed to environmental factors such as hypoxia, cold and heat for prolonged periods of time, where non-genetical variations play a role in allowing subjects to tolerate hypoxic, cold or hot environments. This review focuses on the characteristics and mechanisms of acclimatization found through major research advances by our institute. First, the mechanisms underlying the acclimatization to extreme environments are complex. In our investigations, the physiological changes of multiple systems including the nervous, circulatory, respiratory, and hemopoietic system were demonstrated when the acclimatization to hypoxia was developed, and the underlying significance of hypoxia-inducible factor-1 (HIF-1) was investigated. Second, it is suggested that the development of acclimatization to extreme environments is complicated. Hypoxia and cold coexist at high altitude. Our investigations revealed the characteristics of negative cross-relationship in the acclimatization to hypoxia and cold. And third, it is interesting for us to understand that acclimatization to extreme environments is transferable among individuals, and the characteristics of heat acclimatization-inducing factor (HAlF) were presented. The above findings will provide a theoretical guidance for protective operations and help to establish a solid foundation for future research related to acclimatization.

  3. Projections of heat waves with high impact on human health in Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Amengual, A.; Homar, V.; Romero, R.; Brooks, H. E.; Ramis, C.; Gordaliza, M.; Alonso, S.

    2014-08-01

    Climate change will result in more intense, more frequent and longer lasting heat waves. The most hazardous conditions emerge when extreme daytime temperatures combine with warm night-time temperatures, high humidities and light winds for several consecutive days. Here, we assess present and future heat wave impacts on human health in Europe. Present daily physiologically equivalent temperatures (PET) are derived from the ERA-Interim reanalysis. PET allows to specifically focus on heat-related risks on humans. Regarding projections, a suite of high-resolution regional climate models - run under SRES A1B scenario - has been used. A quantile-quantile adjustment is applied to the daily simulated PET to correct biases in individual model climatologies and a multimodel ensemble strategy is adopted to encompass model errors. Two types of heat waves differently impacting human health - strong and extreme stress - are defined according to specified thresholds of thermal stress and duration. Heat wave number, frequency, duration and amplitude are derived for each type. Results reveal relatively strong correlations between the spatial distribution of strong and extreme heat wave amplitudes and mortality excess for the 2003 European summer. Projections suggest a steady increase and a northward extent of heat wave attributes in Europe. Strong stress heat wave frequencies could increase more than 40 days, lasting over 20 days more by 2075-2094. Amplitudes might augment up to 7 °C per heat wave day. Important increases in extreme stress heat wave attributes are also expected: up to 40 days in frequency, 30 days in duration and 4 °C in amplitude. We believe that with this information at hand policy makers and stakeholders on vulnerable populations to heat stress can respond more effectively to the future challenges imposed by climate warming.

  4. North American extreme temperature events and related large scale meteorological patterns: A review of statistical methods, dynamics, modeling, and trends

    DOE PAGES

    Grotjahn, Richard; Black, Robert; Leung, Ruby; ...

    2015-05-22

    This paper reviews research approaches and open questions regarding data, statistical analyses, dynamics, modeling efforts, and trends in relation to temperature extremes. Our specific focus is upon extreme events of short duration (roughly less than 5 days) that affect parts of North America. These events are associated with large scale meteorological patterns (LSMPs). Methods used to define extreme events statistics and to identify and connect LSMPs to extreme temperatures are presented. Recent advances in statistical techniques can connect LSMPs to extreme temperatures through appropriately defined covariates that supplements more straightforward analyses. A wide array of LSMPs, ranging from synoptic tomore » planetary scale phenomena, have been implicated as contributors to extreme temperature events. Current knowledge about the physical nature of these contributions and the dynamical mechanisms leading to the implicated LSMPs is incomplete. There is a pressing need for (a) systematic study of the physics of LSMPs life cycles and (b) comprehensive model assessment of LSMP-extreme temperature event linkages and LSMP behavior. Generally, climate models capture the observed heat waves and cold air outbreaks with some fidelity. However they overestimate warm wave frequency and underestimate cold air outbreaks frequency, and underestimate the collective influence of low-frequency modes on temperature extremes. Climate models have been used to investigate past changes and project future trends in extreme temperatures. Overall, modeling studies have identified important mechanisms such as the effects of large-scale circulation anomalies and land-atmosphere interactions on changes in extreme temperatures. However, few studies have examined changes in LSMPs more specifically to understand the role of LSMPs on past and future extreme temperature changes. Even though LSMPs are resolvable by global and regional climate models, they are not necessarily well simulated so

  5. North American extreme temperature events and related large scale meteorological patterns: A review of statistical methods, dynamics, modeling, and trends

    SciTech Connect

    Grotjahn, Richard; Black, Robert; Leung, Ruby; Wehner, Michael F.; Barlow, Mathew; Bosilovich, Michael; Gershunov, Alexander; Gutowski, Jr., William J.; Gyakum, John R.; Katz, Richard W.; Lee, Yun -Young; Lim, Young -Kwon; Prabhat, -

    2015-05-22

    This paper reviews research approaches and open questions regarding data, statistical analyses, dynamics, modeling efforts, and trends in relation to temperature extremes. Our specific focus is upon extreme events of short duration (roughly less than 5 days) that affect parts of North America. These events are associated with large scale meteorological patterns (LSMPs). Methods used to define extreme events statistics and to identify and connect LSMPs to extreme temperatures are presented. Recent advances in statistical techniques can connect LSMPs to extreme temperatures through appropriately defined covariates that supplements more straightforward analyses. A wide array of LSMPs, ranging from synoptic to planetary scale phenomena, have been implicated as contributors to extreme temperature events. Current knowledge about the physical nature of these contributions and the dynamical mechanisms leading to the implicated LSMPs is incomplete. There is a pressing need for (a) systematic study of the physics of LSMPs life cycles and (b) comprehensive model assessment of LSMP-extreme temperature event linkages and LSMP behavior. Generally, climate models capture the observed heat waves and cold air outbreaks with some fidelity. However they overestimate warm wave frequency and underestimate cold air outbreaks frequency, and underestimate the collective influence of low-frequency modes on temperature extremes. Climate models have been used to investigate past changes and project future trends in extreme temperatures. Overall, modeling studies have identified important mechanisms such as the effects of large-scale circulation anomalies and land-atmosphere interactions on changes in extreme temperatures. However, few studies have examined changes in LSMPs more specifically to understand the role of LSMPs on past and future extreme temperature changes. Even though LSMPs are resolvable by global and regional climate models, they are not necessarily well simulated so more

  6. Temperature Extremes, Health, and Human Capital

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zivin, Joshua Graff; Shrader, Jeffrey

    2016-01-01

    The extreme temperatures expected under climate change may be especially harmful to children. Children are more vulnerable to heat partly because of their physiological features, but, perhaps more important, because they behave and respond differently than adults do. Children are less likely to manage their own heat risk and may have fewer ways to…

  7. A Global Analysis of the Link between Soil Moisture Dynamics and Warm Extremes.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Casagrande, E.; Kondapalli, N. K.; Mueller, B.; Miralles, D. G.; Molini, A.

    2014-12-01

    Under future climatic scenarios long-lasting warm extremes, such as heat waves, are expected to become more intense, persistent and frequent for both temperate and arid regions, resulting in diverse but nonetheless significant impacts for the human health, sustainable development and economy of these regions. As the underlying processes responsible for triggering and sustaining warm extremes are extremely variegate and yet not well understood, the occurrence of extreme events such heat waves and prolonged droughts results exceedingly difficult to predict and model. Major uncertainties arise from the fact that warm extremes mainly derive from the interplay of large-scale atmospheric processes and local feedbacks operating across very different spatial and temporal scales, and are characterized by several thresholds, limiting factors and non-linearities determining their deviation from the "classical" extreme-value theory.In this study we explore - from a global point of view - the role of local and synoptic dynamical components in initiating warm extremes and in determining their spatial and temporal clustering. Previous studies have already highlighted the role of large negative soil moisture anomalies in causing and sustaining long periods of dry and hot weather. For this reason we propose here a novel approach to the characterization of warm extremes, based on the conditioning of traditional air temperature quintile statistics to antecedent soil moisture conditions. Case studies from different climatic regimes are shown in order to prove the major and varied role of antecedent soil moisture conditions across the different regions of the world. In addition, we also investigate the connection between regional climate features and large-scale dynamics during warm extremes by the joint usage of classical diagnostic analysis and novel statistics for the detection of cross-scale interactions.

  8. Hydrological extremes and their agricultural impacts under a changing climate in Texas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, K.; Gao, H.; Huang, M.; Sheffield, J.

    2015-12-01

    With the changing climate, hydrologic extremes (such as floods, droughts, and heat waves) are becoming more frequent and intensified. Such changes in extreme events are expected to affect agricultural production and food supplies. This study focuses on the State of Texas, which has the largest farm area and the highest value of livestock production in the U.S. The objectives are two-fold: First, to investigate the climatic impact on the occurrence of future hydrologic extreme events; and second, to evaluate the effects of the future extremes on agricultural production. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, which is calibrated and validated over Texas river basins during the historical period, is employed for this study. The VIC model is forced by the statistically downscaled climate projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) model ensembles at a spatial resolution of 1/8°. The CMIP5 projections contain four different scenarios in terms of Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) (i.e. 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5 w/m2). To carry out the analysis, VIC outputs forced by the CMIP5 model scenarios over three 30-year periods (1970-1999, 2020-2049 and 2070-2099) are first evaluated to identify how the frequency and the extent of the extreme events will be altered in the ten Texas major river basins. The results suggest that a significant increase in the number of extreme events will occur starting in the first half of the 21st century in Texas. Then, the effects of the predicted hydrologic extreme events on the irrigation water demand are investigated. It is found that future changes in water demand vary by crop type and location, with an east-to-west gradient. The results are expected to contribute to future water management and planning in Texas.

  9. The urban heat island and its impact on heat waves and human health in Shanghai.

    PubMed

    Tan, Jianguo; Zheng, Youfei; Tang, Xu; Guo, Changyi; Li, Liping; Song, Guixiang; Zhen, Xinrong; Yuan, Dong; Kalkstein, Adam J; Li, Furong

    2010-01-01

    With global warming forecast to continue into the foreseeable future, heat waves are very likely to increase in both frequency and intensity. In urban regions, these future heat waves will be exacerbated by the urban heat island effect, and will have the potential to negatively influence the health and welfare of urban residents. In order to investigate the health effects of the urban heat island (UHI) in Shanghai, China, 30 years of meteorological records (1975-2004) were examined for 11 first- and second-order weather stations in and around Shanghai. Additionally, automatic weather observation data recorded in recent years as well as daily all-cause summer mortality counts in 11 urban, suburban, and exurban regions (1998-2004) in Shanghai have been used. The results show that different sites (city center or surroundings) have experienced different degrees of warming as a result of increasing urbanization. In turn, this has resulted in a more extensive urban heat island effect, causing additional hot days and heat waves in urban regions compared to rural locales. An examination of summer mortality rates in and around Shanghai yields heightened heat-related mortality in urban regions, and we conclude that the UHI is directly responsible, acting to worsen the adverse health effects from exposure to extreme thermal conditions.

  10. Roles of heat shock factors in gametogenesis and development.

    PubMed

    Abane, Ryma; Mezger, Valérie

    2010-10-01

    Heat shock factors form a family of transcription factors (four in mammals), which were named according to the first discovery of their activation by heat shock. As a result of the universality and robustness of their response to heat shock, the stress-dependent activation of heat shock factor became a ‘paradigm’: by binding to conserved DNA sequences (heat shock elements), heat shock factors trigger the expression of genes encoding heat shock proteins that function as molecular chaperones, contributing to establish a cytoprotective state to various proteotoxic stress and in several pathological conditions. Besides their roles in the stress response, heat shock factors perform crucial roles during gametogenesis and development in physiological conditions. First, during these process, in stress conditions, they are either proactive for survival or, conversely, for apoptotic process, allowing elimination or, inversely, protection of certain cell populations in a way that prevents the formation of damaged gametes and secure future reproductive success. Second, heat shock factors display subtle interplay in a tissue- and stage-specific manner, in regulating very specific sets of heat shock genes, but also many other genes encoding growth factors or involved in cytoskeletal dynamics. Third, they act not only by their classical transcription factor activities, but are necessary for the establishment of chromatin structure and, likely, genome stability. Finally, in contrast to the heat shock gene paradigm, heat shock elements bound by heat shock factors in developmental process turn out to be extremely dispersed in the genome, which is susceptible to lead to the future definition of ‘developmental heat shock element’.

  11. Extreme Events and Energy Providers: Science and Innovation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yiou, P.; Vautard, R.

    2012-04-01

    Most socio-economic regulations related to the resilience to climate extremes, from infrastructure or network design to insurance premiums, are based on a present-day climate with an assumption of stationarity. Climate extremes (heat waves, cold spells, droughts, storms and wind stilling) affect in particular energy production, supply, demand and security in several ways. While national, European or international projects have generated vast amounts of climate projections for the 21st century, their practical use in long-term planning remains limited. Estimating probabilistic diagnostics of energy user relevant variables from those multi-model projections will help the energy sector to elaborate medium to long-term plans, and will allow the assessment of climate risks associated to those plans. The project "Extreme Events for Energy Providers" (E3P) aims at filling a gap between climate science and its practical use in the energy sector and creating in turn favourable conditions for new business opportunities. The value chain ranges from addressing research questions directly related to energy-significant climate extremes to providing innovative tools of information and decision making (including methodologies, best practices and software) and climate science training for the energy sector, with a focus on extreme events. Those tools will integrate the scientific knowledge that is developed by scientific communities, and translate it into a usable probabilistic framework. The project will deliver projection tools assessing the probabilities of future energy-relevant climate extremes at a range of spatial scales varying from pan-European to local scales. The E3P project is funded by the Knowledge and Innovation Community (KIC Climate). We will present the mechanisms of interactions between academic partners, SMEs and industrial partners for this project. Those mechanisms are elementary bricks of a climate service.

  12. Automation Rover for Extreme Environments

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sauder, Jonathan; Hilgemann, Evan; Johnson, Michael; Parness, Aaron; Hall, Jeffrey; Kawata, Jessie; Stack, Kathryn

    2017-01-01

    Almost 2,300 years ago the ancient Greeks built the Antikythera automaton. This purely mechanical computer accurately predicted past and future astronomical events long before electronics existed1. Automata have been credibly used for hundreds of years as computers, art pieces, and clocks. However, in the past several decades automata have become less popular as the capabilities of electronics increased, leaving them an unexplored solution for robotic spacecraft. The Automaton Rover for Extreme Environments (AREE) proposes an exciting paradigm shift from electronics to a fully mechanical system, enabling longitudinal exploration of the most extreme environments within the solar system.

  13. Extreme Scale Computational Astrophysics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shoemaker, Deirdre

    2009-11-01

    We live in extraordinary times. With increasingly sophisticated observatories opening up new vistas on the universe, astrophysics is becoming more complex and data-driven. The success in understanding astrophysical systems that are inherently multi-physical, nonlinear systems demands realism in our models of the phenomena. We cannot hope to advance the realism of these models to match the expected sophistication of future observations without extreme-scale computation. Just one example is the advent of gravitational wave astronomy. Detectors like LIGO are about to make the first ever detection of gravitational waves. The gravitational waves are produced during violent events such as the merger of two black holes. The detection of these waves or ripples in the fabric of spacetime is a formidable undertaking, requiring innovative engineering, powerful data analysis tools and careful theoretical modeling. I will discuss the computational and theoretical challenges ahead in our new understanding of physics and astronomy where gravity exhibits its strongest grip on our spacetime.

  14. Energy storage using phase-change materials for active solar heating and cooling: An evaluation of future research and development direction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Borkowski, R. J.; Stovall, T. K.; Kedl, R. J.; Tomlinson, J. J.

    1982-04-01

    The current state of the art and commercial potential of active solar heating and cooling systems for buildings, and the use of thermal energy storage with these systems are assessed. The need for advanced latent heat storage subsystems in these applications and priorities for their development are determined. Latent storage subsystems are advantageous in applications where their compactness may be exploited. It is suggested that subsystems could facilitate storage in retrofit applications in which storage would be physically impossible otherwise.

  15. Seasonal Climate Extremes : Mechanism, Predictability and Responses to Global Warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shongwe, M. E.

    2010-01-01

    energy and dynamic horizontal advection of heat. There is clear evidence that the central North Atlantic Ocean was the major source of energy for the Autumn 2006 extreme event. Within Europe, anomalously high atmospheric water-vapor loading played a significant role through its strong greenhouse effect which resulted in an increase of downwelling infrared flux to the surface. Potential influences and connections between boreal snow cover during the melt season (February--April) and near-surface temperature in the spring season are established. Large amounts of snow act as a precursor to cold spring seasons by altering the coupling between the land and the overlying air through a modification of the surface energy and hydrological processes. In operational numerical models, a snow signal is found to provide some seasonal forecast skill for cold spring seasons in Europe. Changes in the intensity of droughts and floods in Africa in response to global warming are investigated and compared with changes in mean precipitation simulated by an ensemble of climate models selected from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) fourth assessment report (AR4) set. The model simulations are objectively combined using a Bayesian weighting procedure. In southern Africa south of about 15° S, the most robust climate-change signal is a shortening of the main rainfall season. This arises from a delayed onset of seasonal rainfall associated with a reduction in lower-tropospheric moisture advection from the southwestern Indian Ocean. The semi-arid areas closer to the Kalahari desert are projected to become drier, while the wet areas are projected to become wetter. East Africa is projected to get wet in the future climate, much wetter than other regions within the same latitudinal belt. The zonal asymmetry in tropical precipitation increase is associated with a shift towards positive Indian Ocean Zonal Mode (IOZM)-like events via an alteration in the structure of the Eastern

  16. Mapping the Decadal Spatio-temporal Variation of Social Vulnerability to Hydro-climatic Extremes over India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    H, V.; Karmakar, S.; Ghosh, S.

    2015-12-01

    Human induced global warming is unequivocal and observational studies shows that, this has led to increase in the intensity and frequency of hydro-climatic extremes, most importantly precipitation extreme, heat waves and drought; and also is expected to be increased in the future. The occurrence of these extremes have a devastating effects on nation's economy and on societal well-being. Previous studies on India provided the evidences of significant changes in the precipitation extreme from pre- to post-1950, with huge spatial heterogeneity; and projections of heat waves indicated that significant part of India will experience heat stress conditions in the future. Under these circumstance, it is necessary to develop a nation-wide social vulnerability map to scrutinize the adequacy of existing emergency management. Yet there has been no systematic past efforts on mapping social vulnerability to hydro-climatic extremes at nation-wide for India. Therefore, immediate efforts are required to quantify the social vulnerability, particularly developing country like India, where major transformations in demographic characteristics and development patterns are evident during past decades. In the present study, we perform a comprehensive spatio-temporal social vulnerability analysis by considering multiple sensitive indicators for three decades (1990-2010) which identifies the hot-spots, with higher vulnerability to hydro-climatic extremes. The population datasets are procured from Census of India and the meteorological datasets are obtained from India Meteorological Department (IMD). The study derives interesting results on decadal changes of spatial distribution of risk, considering social vulnerability and hazard to extremes.

  17. Magnetar Heating

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beloborodov, Andrei M.; Li, Xinyu

    2016-12-01

    We examine four candidate mechanisms that could explain the high surface temperatures of magnetars. (1) Heat flux from the liquid core heated by ambipolar diffusion. It could sustain the observed surface luminosity {{\\mathscr{L}}}s≈ {10}35 erg s-1 if core heating offsets neutrino cooling at a temperature {T}{core}\\gt 6× {10}8 K. This scenario is viable if the core magnetic field exceeds 1016 G and the heat-blanketing envelope of the magnetar has a light-element composition. However, we find that the lifetime of such a hot core should be shorter than the typical observed lifetime of magnetars. (2) Mechanical dissipation in the solid crust. This heating can be quasi-steady, powered by gradual (or frequent) crustal yielding to magnetic stresses. We show that it obeys a strong upper limit. As long as the crustal stresses are fostered by the field evolution in the core or Hall drift in the crust, mechanical heating is insufficient to sustain persistent {{\\mathscr{L}}}s≈ {10}35 erg s-1. The surface luminosity is increased in an alternative scenario of mechanical deformations triggered by external magnetospheric flares. (3) Ohmic dissipation in the crust, in volume or current sheets. This mechanism is inefficient because of the high conductivity of the crust. Only extreme magnetic configurations with crustal fields B\\gt {10}16 G varying on a 100 meter scale could provide {{\\mathscr{L}}}s≈ {10}35 erg s-1. (4) Bombardment of the stellar surface by particles accelerated in the magnetosphere. This mechanism produces hot spots on magnetars. Observations of transient magnetars show evidence of external heating.

  18. Heat budget of ionospheric electrons

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Prasad, S. S.; Schneck, L. J.

    1976-01-01

    Heat input calculations were detached from solar extreme UV data and monatomic oxygen densities were derived from simultaneously measured data sets (ion composition 146-191 km) in a study of the heat budget of ionosphere electrons. Earlier inferences that cooling predominates over heating are supported. A search for additional heat sources or a revision of the cooling rates is recommended, by way of balancing the heat budget. Importance is attached to electron cooling by fine structure excitation of monatomic oxygen.

  19. Heat-related respiratory hospital admissions in Europe in a changing climate: a health impact assessment

    PubMed Central

    Åström, Christofer; Orru, Hans; Rocklöv, Joacim; Strandberg, Gustav; Ebi, Kristie L; Forsberg, Bertil

    2013-01-01

    Objectives Respiratory diseases are ranked second in Europe in terms of mortality, prevalence and costs. Studies have shown that extreme heat has a large impact on mortality and morbidity, with a large relative increase for respiratory diseases. Expected increases in mean temperature and the number of extreme heat events over the coming decades due to climate change raise questions about the possible health impacts. We assess the number of heat-related respiratory hospital admissions in a future with a different climate. Design A Europe-wide health impact assessment. Setting An assessment for each of the EU27 countries. Methods Heat-related hospital admissions under a changing climate are projected using multicity epidemiological exposure–response relationships applied to gridded population data and country-specific baseline respiratory hospital admission rates. Times-series of temperatures are simulated with a regional climate model based on four global climate models, under two greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Results Between a reference period (1981–2010) and a future period (2021–2050), the total number of respiratory hospital admissions attributed to heat is projected to be larger in southern Europe, with three times more heat attributed respiratory hospital admissions in the future period. The smallest change was estimated in Eastern Europe with about a twofold increase. For all of Europe, the number of heat-related respiratory hospital admissions is projected to be 26 000 annually in the future period compared with 11 000 in the reference period. Conclusions The results suggest that the projected effects of climate change on temperature and the number of extreme heat events could substantially influence respiratory morbidity across Europe. PMID:23355662

  20. Linking Extreme Weather Events and Extreme ENSO States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Perlwitz, J.; Hoerling, M. P.; Xu, T.; Hoell, A.; Cheng, L.; Wolter, K.

    2015-12-01

    To what extent are the risks of extreme weather events over the contiguous US, such as heavy precipitation, heat and cold waves, conditioned by the state of tropical east Pacific SSTs? Further, do extreme magnitudes of El Niño and La Niña events exert a unique and particularly strong controlling effect on weather extremes? Here, we utilize both observations and multi-model large ensemble historical simulations to characterize the behavior of 5-day maximum precipitation distributions. We focus on relations between ENSO impacts on seasonal means and weather extremes, and explore the distinction between effects based on ENSO phase and intensity. For the cold season (November to April), overall ENSO impacts on mean precipitation are shown to be consistent with observations. This signal includes enhanced seasonal mean precipitation over the southern part of the U.S. and central Great Plains during El Niño, and enhanced seasonal mean precipitation over the Midwest during La Nina. We further demonstrate how these signals change under the influence of the most extreme ENSO events, conditions that are difficult to verify from observations owing to small sample sizes, but are modeled via large ensemble methods. The statistics of 5-day maximum precipitation, with a focus on 20-year return levels that characterizes rare but potentially damaging events, are examined. We demonstrate substantial differences in changes in the risk of extreme 5-day precipitation and the seasonal mean precipitation signal, especially in such regions as California, and the western Great Plains including the Front Range of the Rockies from Montana to New Mexico. The plausibility of such behavior is discussed via physical considerations and by examining the structural uncertainty in such outcomes across three different climate models.

  1. Regional Changes in Extreme Climatic Events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bell, J. L.; Sloan, L. C.; Snyder, M. A.

    2002-12-01

    This study focuses on California as a climatically complex region that is vulnerable to changes in water supply and delivery. A regional climate model is employed to assess changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme temperatures and precipitation. Significant increases in daily minimum and maximum temperatures occur with a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration. Increases in daily temperatures lead to increases in prolonged heat waves and length of the growing season. Changes in total and extreme precipitation vary by geographic region.

  2. Flexible diaphragm-extreme temperature usage

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lerma, Guillermo (Inventor)

    1991-01-01

    A diaphragm suitable for extreme temperature usage, such as encountered in critical aerospace applications, is fabricated by a unique method, and of a unique combination of materials. The materials include multilayered lay-ups of diaphragm materials sandwiched between layers of bleeder fabrics. After being formed in the desired shape on a mold, they are vacuum sealed and then cured under pressure, in a heated autoclave. A bond capable of withstanding extreme temperatures are produced.

  3. Simulation of Lake Surface Heat Fluxes by the Canadian Small Lake Model: Offline Performance Assessment for Future Coupling with a Regional Climate Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pernica, P.; Guerrero, J. L.; MacKay, M.; Wheater, H. S.

    2014-12-01

    Lakes strongly influence local and regional climate especially in regions where they are abundant. Development of a lake model for the purpose of integration within a regional climate model is therefore a subject of scientific interest. Of particular importance are the heat flux predictions provided by the lake model since they function as key forcings in a fully coupled atmosphere-land-lake system. The first step towards a coupled model is to validate and characterize the accuracy of the lake model over a range of conditions and to identify limitations. In this work, validation results from offline tests of the Canadian Small Lake Model; a deterministic, computationally efficient, 1D integral model, are presented. Heat fluxes (sensible and latent) and surface water temperatures simulated by the model are compared with in situ observations from two lakes; Landing Lake (NWT, Canada) and L239 (ELA, Canada) for the 2007-2009 period. Sensitivity analysis is performed to identify key parameters important for heat flux predictions. The results demonstrate the ability of the 1-D lake model to reproduce both diurnal and seasonal variations in heat fluxes and surface temperatures for the open water period. These results, in context of regional climate modelling are also discussed.

  4. The impact of climate extremes on US agricultural production and the buffering impacts of irrigation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Troy, Tara J.; Kipgen, Chinpihoi; Pal, Indrani

    2014-05-01

    In recent years, droughts and floods have occurred over many of the major growing regions of the world, resulting in decreased agricultural production and increased global food prices. Many climate projections call for more frequent extreme events, which could have significant impacts on agricultural yields and water resources in irrigated agricultural regions. In order to better understand the potential impact of climate extremes and the spatial heterogeneity of those impacts, we examine the associations between climate and irrigated and rain fed crop yields, focusing on four main staple crops: wheat, rice, soy, and maize. Because the United States has high spatial resolution data for both yields and weather variables, the analysis focuses on the impact of multiple extremes over these four crops in the US using statistical methods that do not require any assumptions of functional relationships between yields and weather variables. Irrigated and rain fed agricultural yields are analyzed separately to understand the role irrigation plays either as a buffering against climate variability and extremes such as drought, heat waves, and extended dry spells or a mechanism that leads to varied relationships between extremes of climate and yield fluctuations. These results demonstrate that irrigation has varying effects depending on the region, growing season timing, crop type, and type of climate extreme. This work has important implications for future planning of the coupled water-food system and its vulnerabilities to climate.

  5. Increasing impacts of climate extremes on critical infrastructures in Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Forzieri, Giovanni; Bianchi, Alessandra; Feyen, Luc; Silva, Filipe Batista e.; Marin, Mario; Lavalle, Carlo; Leblois, Antoine

    2016-04-01

    The projected increases in exposure to multiple climate hazards in many regions of Europe, emphasize the relevance of a multi-hazard risk assessment to comprehensively quantify potential impacts of climate change and develop suitable adaptation strategies. In this context, quantifying the future impacts of climatic extremes on critical infrastructures is crucial due to their key role for human wellbeing and their effects on the overall economy. Critical infrastructures describe the existing assets and systems that are essential for the maintenance of vital societal functions, health, safety, security, economic or social well-being of people, and the disruption or destruction of which would have a significant impact as a result of the failure to maintain those functions. We assess the direct damages of heat and cold waves, river and coastal flooding, droughts, wildfires and windstorms to energy, transport, industry and social infrastructures in Europe along the 21st century. The methodology integrates in a coherent framework climate hazard, exposure and vulnerability components. Overall damage is expected to rise up to 38 billion €/yr, ten time-folds the current climate damage, with drastic variations in risk scenarios. Exemplificative are drought and heat-related damages that could represent 70% of the overall climate damage in 2080s versus the current 12%. Many regions, prominently Southern Europe, will likely suffer multiple stresses and systematic infrastructure failures due to climate extremes if no suitable adaptation measures will be taken.

  6. Shear Fractures of Extreme Dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tarasov, Boris

    2016-10-01

    Natural and laboratory observations show that shear ruptures (faults) can propagate with extreme dynamics (up to intersonic rupture velocities) through intact materials and along pre-existing faults with frictional and coherent (bonded) interfaces. The rupture propagation is accompanied by significant fault strength weakening in the rupture head. Although essential for understanding earthquakes, rock mechanics, tribology and fractures, the question of what physical processes determine how that weakening occurs is still unresolved. The general approach today to explain the fault weakening is based upon the strong velocity-weakening friction law according to which the fault strength drops rapidly with slip velocity. Different mechanisms of strength weakening caused by slip velocity have been proposed including thermal effect, high-frequency compressional waves, expansion of pore fluid, macroscopic melting and gel formation. This paper proposes that shear ruptures of extreme dynamics propagating in intact materials and in pre-existing frictional and coherent interfaces are governed by the same recently identified mechanism which is associated with an intensive microcracking process in the rupture tip observed for all types of extreme ruptures. The microcracking process creates, in certain conditions, a special fan-like microstructure shear resistance of which is extremely low (up to an order of magnitude less than the frictional strength). The fan-structure representing the rupture head provides strong interface weakening and causes high slip and rupture velocities. In contrast with the velocity-weakening dependency, this mechanism provides the opposite weakening-velocity effect. The fan-mechanism differs remarkably from all reported earlier mechanisms, and it can provide such important features observed in extreme ruptures as: extreme slip and rupture velocities, high slip velocity without heating, off-fault tensile cracking, transition from crack-like to pulse

  7. Effects of extreme spring temperatures on phenology: a case study from Munich and Ingolstadt

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jochner, Susanne; Menzel, Annette

    2010-05-01

    Extreme events - e.g. warm spells or heavy precipitation events - are likely to increase in the future both in frequency and intensity. Therefore, research on extreme events gains new importance; also in terms of plant development which is mostly triggered by temperatures. An arising question is how plants respond to an extreme warm spell when following an extreme cold winter season. This situation could be studied in spring 2009 in the greater area of Munich and Ingolstadt by phenological observations of flowering and leaf unfolding of birch (Betula pendula L.) and flowering of horse chestnut (Aesculus hippocastanum L.). The long chilling period of winter 2008 and spring 2009 was followed by an immediate strong forcing of flowering and leaf unfolding, especially for birch. This extreme weather situation diminished the difference between urban and rural dates of onset. Another important fact that could be observed in the proceeding period of December 2008 to April 2009 was the reduced temperature difference among urban and rural sites (urban heat island effect). Long-term observations (1951-2008) of the phenological network of the German Meteorological Service (DWD) were used to identify years with reduced urban-rural differences between onset times in the greater area of Munich in the past. Statistical analyses were conducted in order to answer the question whether the sequence of extreme warm and cold events leads to a decreased difference in phenological onset times or if this behaviour can be attributed to extreme warm springs themselves or to the decreased urban heat island effect which is mostly affected by general atmospheric circulation patterns.

  8. Extreme Environments Technologies for Probes to Venus and Jupiter

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Balint, Tibor S.; Kolawa, Elizabeth A.; Peterson, Craig E.; Cutts, James A.; Belz, Andrea P.

    2007-01-01

    This viewgraph presentation reviews the technologies that are used to mitigate extreme environments for probes at Venus and Jupiter. The contents include: 1) Extreme environments at Venus and Jupiter; 2) In-situ missions to Venus and Jupiter (past/present/future); and 3) Approaches to mitigate conditions of extreme environments for probes with systems architectures and technologies.

  9. Using the Excess Heat Factor (EHF) to predict the risk of heat related deaths.

    PubMed

    Langlois, Neil; Herbst, Jonathon; Mason, Kerryn; Nairn, John; Byard, Roger W

    2013-07-01

    Extremes of climate are not uncommon in Australia and heatwaves are not infrequent. Periods of high ambient temperature may result in clusters of heat related deaths, which may place strain on forensic facilities. This paper describes the formulation of the Excess Heat Factor using meteorological data to provide a means of predicting death resulting from periods of extreme heat stress. The 2009 South Australian heatwave had the highest ranked Excess Heat Factor in Adelaide's records. There were 58 heat related deaths, with the bulk of the heat related deaths following the peak Excess Heat Factor value (144 °C(2)). The 2008 heatwave had a lower peak Excess Heat Factor value (36 °C(2)); there was only one heat related death, which followed the peak in the Excess Heat Factor. It is proposed that calculation of the Excess Heat Factor from meteorological data could provide a means to predict and identify heat related deaths resulting from extreme weather conditions.

  10. Real-Time Observation of Laser Heated Metals with High Brightness Monochromatic X-Ray Techniques at Present and Their Future Prospects

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Daido, H.; Shobu, T.; Yamada, T.; Yamashita, S.; Sugihara, K.; Nishimura, A.; Muramatsu, T.

    We present the x-ray techniques for characterizing laser heated metals for welding and cutting techniques. At present, with an undulator (70 keV) as well as bending magnet (30 keV) sources at SPring-8 as a probe source, CW 300 W Ytterbium fiber laser irradiates an Aluminum slab as a sample. Simultaneously the x-ray beam probes the sample for real time observation of a molten pool. We observe the convection indicated by the motion of tungsten based particles as a tracer in the molten pool. During the cooling phase, the molten metal is solidified with residual stresses which are affected by the heating and convection processes. In this experiment the time and space resolution are ˜milli-second and several tens of μm, respectively. On the other hand, microscopic short transient phenomena also play a significant role for the quality of a solidified material. For this purpose, we need high energy short pulse x-ray sources. We try to discuss on the capability and limitation of present x-ray sources and the prospect of an ultra high brightness x-ray source as a complementary source for full characterization of the laser heated and cooling processes of metals.

  11. Heat Pipes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1990-01-01

    Bobs Candies, Inc. produces some 24 million pounds of candy a year, much of it 'Christmas candy.' To meet Christmas demand, it must produce year-round. Thousands of cases of candy must be stored a good part of the year in two huge warehouses. The candy is very sensitive to temperature. The warehouses must be maintained at temperatures of 78-80 degrees Fahrenheit with relative humidities of 38- 42 percent. Such precise climate control of enormous buildings can be very expensive. In 1985, energy costs for the single warehouse ran to more than $57,000 for the year. NASA and the Florida Solar Energy Center (FSEC) were adapting heat pipe technology to control humidity in building environments. The heat pipes handle the jobs of precooling and reheating without using energy. The company contacted a FSEC systems engineer and from that contact eventually emerged a cooperative test project to install a heat pipe system at Bobs' warehouses, operate it for a period of time to determine accurately the cost benefits, and gather data applicable to development of future heat pipe systems. Installation was completed in mid-1987 and data collection is still in progress. In 1989, total energy cost for two warehouses, with the heat pipes complementing the air conditioning system was $28,706, and that figures out to a cost reduction.

  12. Heat Pipes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    1990-01-01

    Bobs Candies, Inc. produces some 24 million pounds of candy a year, much of it 'Christmas candy.' To meet Christmas demand, it must produce year-round. Thousands of cases of candy must be stored a good part of the year in two huge warehouses. The candy is very sensitive to temperature. The warehouses must be maintained at temperatures of 78-80 degrees Fahrenheit with relative humidities of 38- 42 percent. Such precise climate control of enormous buildings can be very expensive. In 1985, energy costs for the single warehouse ran to more than 57,000 for the year. NASA and the Florida Solar Energy Center (FSEC) were adapting heat pipe technology to control humidity in building environments. The heat pipes handle the jobs of precooling and reheating without using energy. The company contacted a FSEC systems engineer and from that contact eventually emerged a cooperative test project to install a heat pipe system at Bobs' warehouses, operate it for a period of time to determine accurately the cost benefits, and gather data applicable to development of future heat pipe systems. Installation was completed in mid-1987 and data collection is still in progress. In 1989, total energy cost for two warehouses, with the heat pipes complementing the air conditioning system was 28,706, and that figures out to a cost reduction.

  13. Pneumatic Proboscis Heat-Flow Probe

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zacny, Kris; Hedlund, Magnus; Mumm, Eric; Shasho, Jeffrey; Chu, Philip; Kumar, Nishant

    2013-01-01

    Heat flow is a fundamental property of a planet, and provides significant constraints on the abundance of radiogenic isotopes, the thermal evolution and differentiation history, and the mechanical properties of the lithosphere. Heat-flow measurements are also essential in achieving at least four of the goals set out by the National Research Council for future lunar exploration. The heat-flow probe therefore directly addresses the goal of the Lunar Geophysical Network, which is to understand the interior structure and composition of the Moon. A key challenge for heat flow measurement is to install thermal sensors to the depths approximately equal to 3 m that are not influenced by the diurnal, annual, and longer-term fluctuations of the surface thermal environment. In addition, once deployed, the heat flow probe should cause little disturbance to the thermal regime of the surrounding regolith. A heat-flow probe system was developed that has two novel features: (1) it utilizes a pneumatic (gas) approach, excavates a hole by lofting the lunar soil out of the hole, and (2) deploys the heat flow probe, which utilizes a coiled up tape as a thermal probe to reach greater than 3-meter depth. The system is a game-changer for small lunar landers as it exhibits extremely low mass, volume, and simple deployment. The pneumatic system takes advantage of the helium gas used for pressurizing liquid propellant of the lander. Normally, helium is vented once the lander is on the surface, but it can be utilized for powering pneumatic systems. Should sufficient helium not be available, a simple gas delivery system may be taken specifically for the heat flow probe. Either way, the pneumatic heat flow probe system would be much lighter than other systems that entirely rely on the electrical power of the lander.

  14. Window performance in extreme cold

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Flanders, S. N.; Buska, J. S.; Barrett, S. A.

    1982-12-01

    Extreme cold causes heavy buildup of frost, ice and condensation on many windows. It also increases the incentive for improving the airtightness of windows against heat loss. Our study shows that tightening specifications for Alaskan windows to permit only 30% of the air leakage allowed by current American airtightness standards is economically attractive. We also recommend triple glazing in much of Alaska to avoid window icing in homes and barracks. We base our conclusions on a two year field study of Alaskan military bases that included recording humidity and temperature data, observing moisture accumulation on windows and measuring airtightness with a fan pressurized device.

  15. Extreme Scale Visual Analytics

    SciTech Connect

    Wong, Pak C.; Shen, Han-Wei; Pascucci, Valerio

    2012-05-08

    Extreme-scale visual analytics (VA) is about applying VA to extreme-scale data. The articles in this special issue examine advances related to extreme-scale VA problems, their analytical and computational challenges, and their real-world applications.

  16. The Construction and Validation of the Heat Vulnerability Index, a Review

    PubMed Central

    Bao, Junzhe; Li, Xudong; Yu, Chuanhua

    2015-01-01

    The occurrence of extreme heat and its adverse effects will be exacerbated with the trend of global warming. An increasing number of researchers have been working on aggregating multiple heat-related indicators to create composite indices for heat vulnerability assessments and have visualized the vulnerability through geographic information systems to provide references for reducing the adverse effects of extreme heat more effectively. This review includes 15 studies concerning heat vulnerability assessment. We have studied the indicators utilized and the methods adopted in these studies for the construction of the heat vulnerability index (HVI) and then further reviewed some of the studies that validated the HVI. We concluded that the HVI is useful for targeting the intervention of heat risk, and that heat-related health outcomes could be used to validate and optimize the HVI. In the future, more studies should be conducted to provide references for the selection of heat-related indicators and the determination of weight values of these indicators in the development of the HVI. Studies concerning the application of the HVI are also needed. PMID:26132476

  17. Socio-cultural reflections on heat in Australia with implications for health and climate change adaptation

    PubMed Central

    Banwell, Cathy; Dixon, Jane; Bambrick, Hilary; Edwards, Ferne; Kjellström, Tord

    2012-01-01

    Background Australia has a hot climate with maximum summer temperatures in its major cities frequently exceeding 35°C. Although ‘heat waves’ are an annual occurrence, the associated heat-related deaths among vulnerable groups, such as older people, suggest that Australians could be better prepared to deal with extreme heat. Objective To understand ways in which a vulnerable sub-population adapt their personal behaviour to cope with heat within the context of Australians’ relationship with heat. Design We draw upon scientific, historical and literary sources and on a set of repeat interviews in the suburbs of Western Sydney with eight older participants and two focus group discussions. We discuss ways in which this group of older people modifies their behaviour to adapt to heat, and reflect on manifestations of Australians’ ambivalence towards heat. Results Participants reported a number of methods for coping with extreme heat, including a number of methods of personal cooling, changing patterns of daily activity and altering dietary habits. The use of air-conditioning was near universal, but with recognition that increasing energy costs may become more prohibitive over time. Conclusions While a number of methods are employed by older people to stay cool, these may become limited in the future. Australians’ attitudes may contribute to the ill-health and mortality associated with excessive heat. PMID:23078748

  18. Are hourly precipitation extremes increasing faster than daily precipitation extremes?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barbero, Renaud; Fowler, Hayley; Blenkinsop, Stephen; Lenderink, Geert

    2016-04-01

    Extreme precipitation events appear to be increasing with climate change in many regions of the world, including the United States. These extreme events have large societal impacts, as seen during the recent Texas-Oklahoma flooding in May 2015 which caused several billion in damages and left 47 deaths in its path. Better understanding of past changes in the characteristics of extreme rainfall events is thus critical for reliable projections of future changes. Although it has been documented in several studies that daily precipitation extremes are increasing across parts of the contiguous United States, very few studies have looked at hourly extremes. However, this is of primary importance as recent studies on the temperature scaling of extreme precipitation have shown that increases above the Clausius-Clapeyron (~ 7% °C-1) are possible for hourly precipitation. In this study, we used hourly precipitation data (HPD) from the National Climatic Data Center and extracted more than 1,000 stations across the US with more than 40 years of data spanning the period 1950-2010. As hourly measurements are often associated with a range of issues, the data underwent multiple quality control processes to exclude erroneous data. While no significant changes were found in annual maximum precipitation using both hourly and daily resolution datasets, significant increasing trends in terms of frequency of episodes exceeding present-day 95th percentiles of wet hourly/daily precipitation were observed across a significant portion of the US. The fraction of stations with significant increasing trends falls outside the confidence interval range during all seasons but the summer. While less than 12% of stations exhibit significant trends at the daily scale in the wintertime, more than 45% of stations, mostly clustered in central and Northern United States, show significant increasing trends at the hourly scale. This suggests that short-duration storms have increased faster than daily

  19. Heat pipe array heat exchanger

    DOEpatents

    Reimann, Robert C.

    1987-08-25

    A heat pipe arrangement for exchanging heat between two different temperature fluids. The heat pipe arrangement is in a ounterflow relationship to increase the efficiency of the coupling of the heat from a heat source to a heat sink.

  20. The Control of Lighting Heat

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Modern Schools, 1973

    1973-01-01

    The trend toward increased lighting has accelerated the acceptance of heat recovery systems. A heating-lighting-cooling system is a responsible and efficient use of energy for future school buildings. (Author/MLF)

  1. Interpreting Climate Model Projections of Extreme Weather Events for Decision Makers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vavrus, S. J.; Notaro, M.

    2014-12-01

    The proliferation of output from climate model ensembles, such as CMIP3 and CMIP5, has greatly expanded access to future projections, but there is no accepted blueprint for how this data should be interpreted. Decision makers are thus faced with difficult questions when trying to utilize such information: How reliable are the multi-model mean projections? How should the changes simulated by outlier models be treated? How can raw projections of temperature and precipitation be translated into probabilities? The multi-model average is often regarded as the most accurate single estimate of future conditions, but higher-order moments representing the variance and skewness of the distribution of projections provide important information about uncertainty. We have analyzed a set of statistically downscaled climate model projections from the CMIP3 archive to conduct an assessment of extreme weather events at a level designed to be relevant for decision makers. Our analysis uses the distribution of 13 GCM projections to derive the inter-model standard deviation (and coefficient of variation, COV), skewness, and percentile ranges for simulated changes in extreme heat, cold, and precipitation during the middle and late 21st century for the A1B emissions scenario. These metrics help to establish the overall confidence level across the entire range of projections (via the inter-model COV), relative confidence in the simulated high-end versus low-end changes (via skewness), and probabilistic uncertainty bounds derived from a bootstrapping technique. Over our analysis domain centered on the United States Midwest, some primary findings include: (1) Greater confidence in projections of less extreme cold than more extreme heat and intense precipitation, (2) Greater confidence in the low-end than high-end projections of extreme heat, and (3) Higher spatial and temporal variability in the confidence of projected increases of heavy precipitation. In addition, our bootstrapping

  2. A Millennial Challenge: Extremism in Uncertain Times

    PubMed Central

    Fiske, Susan T.

    2014-01-01

    This comment highlights the relevance and importance of the uncertainty-extremism topic, both scientifically and societally, identifies common themes, locates this work in a wider scientific and social context, describes what we now know and what we still do not, acknowledges some limitations, foreshadowing future directions, and discusses some potential policy relevance. Common themes emerge around the importance of social justice as sound anti-extremism policy. PMID:24511155

  3. A Millennial Challenge: Extremism in Uncertain Times.

    PubMed

    Fiske, Susan T

    2013-09-01

    This comment highlights the relevance and importance of the uncertainty-extremism topic, both scientifically and societally, identifies common themes, locates this work in a wider scientific and social context, describes what we now know and what we still do not, acknowledges some limitations, foreshadowing future directions, and discusses some potential policy relevance. Common themes emerge around the importance of social justice as sound anti-extremism policy.

  4. Understanding hydrological extremes in the Anthropocene

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mård, Johanna; Di Baldassarre, Giuliano

    2016-04-01

    Hydrological extremes, from floods to droughts, pose one of the greatest challenges of the 21st century. Many of these challenges are associated with societal interactions with water, as people control or impact hydrological systems in a multitude of ways while they are also being affected and shaped by hydrological extremes, depending on their response to drought and flood events. However, the fact that the human and natural components of freshwater systems interact and co-evolve over time is often not taken into account. There is a need to study the two-way coupling between hydrology and society within a more comprehensive framework for hydrological extremes to anticipate future trajectories in a rapidly changing world. We present an interdisciplinary framework (and concepts) to identify internal controlling variables, processes and feedbacks, and the external system drivers and disturbances of the coupled human-water system with regard to hydrological extremes. To achieve this, the study (i) synthesizes existing research on coupled human-water system focusing on floods and droughts, (ii) analyzes hydrological extremes that have already occurred and their spatiotemporal patterns to investigate what patterns are observed in different regions of the world, and (iii) systematically describe the observed hydrological extremes, their causes and the interactions and feedbacks between hydrology and society. Advancing our understanding of mechanisms and feedbacks driving hydrological extremes is essential to better anticipate how the coupled human-water system will respond to future environmental change.

  5. Heat Stress in Older Adults

    MedlinePlus

    ... About CDC.gov . Natural Disasters and Severe Weather Earthquakes Being Prepared Emergency Supplies Home Hazards Indoor Safety ... Matters What's New Preparation & Planning Disasters & Severe Weather Earthquakes Extreme Heat Floods Hurricanes Landslides Tornadoes Tsunamis Volcanoes ...

  6. Mid-Latitude Circulation and Extremes in a Changing Climate

    SciTech Connect

    Chen, Gang

    2016-08-04

    Mid-latitude extreme weather events are responsible for a large part of climate-related damage. Yet large uncertainties remain in climate model projections of heat waves, droughts, and heavy rain/snow events on regional scales, limiting our ability to effectively use these projections for climate adaptation and mitigation. These uncertainties can be attributed to both the lack of spatial resolution in the models, and to the lack of a dynamical understanding of these extremes. The approach of this project is to relate the fine-scale features to the large scales in current climate simulations, seasonal re-forecasts, and climate change projections in a very wide range of models, including the atmospheric and coupled models of ECMWF over a range of horizontal resolutions (125 to 10 km), aqua-planet configuration of the Model for Prediction Across Scales and High Order Method Modeling Environments (resolutions ranging from 240 km – 7.5 km) with various physics suites, and selected CMIP5 model simulations. The large scale circulation will be quantified both on the basis of the well tested preferred circulation regime approach, and very recently developed measures, the finite amplitude Wave Activity (FAWA) and its spectrum. The fine scale structures related to extremes will be diagnosed following the latest approaches in the literature. The goal is to use the large scale measures as indicators of the probability of occurrence of the finer scale structures, and hence extreme events. These indicators will then be applied to the CMIP5 models and time-slice projections of a future climate.

  7. North American extreme temperature events and related large scale meteorological patterns: a review of statistical methods, dynamics, modeling, and trends

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grotjahn, Richard; Black, Robert; Leung, Ruby; Wehner, Michael F.; Barlow, Mathew; Bosilovich, Mike; Gershunov, Alexander; Gutowski, William J.; Gyakum, John R.; Katz, Richard W.; Lee, Yun-Young; Lim, Young-Kwon; Prabhat

    2016-02-01

    The objective of this paper is to review statistical methods, dynamics, modeling efforts, and trends related to temperature extremes, with a focus upon extreme events of short duration that affect parts of North America. These events are associated with large scale meteorological patterns (LSMPs). The statistics, dynamics, and modeling sections of this paper are written to be autonomous and so can be read separately. Methods to define extreme events statistics and to identify and connect LSMPs to extreme temperature events are presented. Recent advances in statistical techniques connect LSMPs to extreme temperatures through appropriately defined covariates that supplement more straightforward analyses. Various LSMPs, ranging from synoptic to planetary scale structures, are associated with extreme temperature events. Current knowledge about the synoptics and the dynamical mechanisms leading to the associated LSMPs is incomplete. Systematic studies of: the physics of LSMP life cycles, comprehensive model assessment of LSMP-extreme temperature event linkages, and LSMP properties are needed. Generally, climate models capture observed properties of heat waves and cold air outbreaks with some fidelity. However they overestimate warm wave frequency and underestimate cold air outbreak frequency, and underestimate the collective influence of low-frequency modes on temperature extremes. Modeling studies have identified the impact of large-scale circulation anomalies and land-atmosphere interactions on changes in extreme temperatures. However, few studies have examined changes in LSMPs to more specifically understand the role of LSMPs on past and future extreme temperature changes. Even though LSMPs are resolvable by global and regional climate models, they are not necessarily well simulated. The paper concludes with unresolved issues and research questions.

  8. Upper Extremity Length Equalization

    PubMed Central

    DeCoster, Thomas A.; Ritterbusch, John; Crawford, Mark

    1992-01-01

    Significant upper extremity length inequality is uncommon but can cause major functional problems. The ability to position and use the hand may be impaired by shortness of any of the long bones of the upper extremity. In many respects upper and lower extremity length problems are similar. They most commonly occur after injury to a growing bone and the treatment modalities utilized in the lower extremity may be applied to the upper extremity. These treatment options include epiphysiodesis, shortening osteotomy, angulatory correction osteotomy and lengthening. This report reviews the literature relative to upper extremity length inequality and equalization and presents an algorithm for evaluation and planning appropriate treatment for patients with this condition. This algorithm is illustrated by two clinical cases of posttraumatic shortness of the radius which were effectively treated. ImagesFigure 1Figure 2Figure 3

  9. How extreme is extreme hourly precipitation?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Papalexiou, Simon Michael; Dialynas, Yannis G.; Pappas, Christoforos

    2016-04-01

    The importance of accurate representation of precipitation at fine time scales (e.g., hourly), directly associated with flash flood events, is crucial in hydrological design and prediction. The upper part of a probability distribution, known as the distribution tail, determines the behavior of extreme events. In general, and loosely speaking, tails can be categorized in two families: the subexponential and the hyperexponential family, with the first generating more intense and more frequent extremes compared to the latter. In past studies, the focus has been mainly on daily precipitation, with the Gamma distribution being the most popular model. Here, we investigate the behaviour of tails of hourly precipitation by comparing the upper part of empirical distributions of thousands of records with three general types of tails corresponding to the Pareto, Lognormal, and Weibull distributions. Specifically, we use thousands of hourly rainfall records from all over the USA. The analysis indicates that heavier-tailed distributions describe better the observed hourly rainfall extremes in comparison to lighter tails. Traditional representations of the marginal distribution of hourly rainfall may significantly deviate from observed behaviours of extremes, with direct implications on hydroclimatic variables modelling and engineering design.

  10. 21st Birthday Drinking: Extremely Extreme

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rutledge, Patricia C.; Park, Aesoon; Sher, Kenneth J.

    2008-01-01

    Despite public recognition of the hazards of 21st birthday drinking, there is little empirical information concerning its prevalence, severity, and risk factors. Data from a sample of 2,518 college students suggest that 21st birthday drinking poses an extreme danger: (a) 4 of every 5 participants (83%) reported drinking to celebrate, (b) birthday…

  11. Typologies of Extreme Longevity Myths

    PubMed Central

    Young, Robert D.; Desjardins, Bertrand; McLaughlin, Kirsten; Poulain, Michel; Perls, Thomas T.

    2010-01-01

    Purpose. Political, national, religious, and other motivations have led the media and even scientists to errantly accept extreme longevity claims prima facie. We describe various causes of false claims of extraordinary longevity. Design and Methods. American Social Security Death Index files for the period 1980–2009 were queried for individuals with birth and death dates yielding ages 110+ years of age. Frequency was compared to a list of age-validated supercentenarians maintained by the Gerontology Research Group who died during the same time period. Age claims of 110+ years and the age validation experiences of the authors facilitated a list of typologies of false age claims. Results. Invalid age claim rates increase with age from 65% at age 110-111 to 98% by age 115 to 100% for 120+ years. Eleven typologies of false claims were: Religious Authority Myth, Village Elder Myth, Fountain of Youth Myth (substance), Shangri-La Myth (geographic), Nationalist Pride, Spiritual Practice, Familial Longevity, Individual and/or Family Notoriety, Military Service, Administrative Entry Error, and Pension-Social Entitlement Fraud. Conclusions. Understanding various causes of false extreme age claims is important for placing current, past, and future extreme longevity claims in context and for providing a necessary level of skepticism. PMID:21461047

  12. Typologies of extreme longevity myths.

    PubMed

    Young, Robert D; Desjardins, Bertrand; McLaughlin, Kirsten; Poulain, Michel; Perls, Thomas T

    2010-01-01

    Purpose. Political, national, religious, and other motivations have led the media and even scientists to errantly accept extreme longevity claims prima facie. We describe various causes of false claims of extraordinary longevity. Design and Methods. American Social Security Death Index files for the period 1980-2009 were queried for individuals with birth and death dates yielding ages 110+ years of age. Frequency was compared to a list of age-validated supercentenarians maintained by the Gerontology Research Group who died during the same time period. Age claims of 110+ years and the age validation experiences of the authors facilitated a list of typologies of false age claims. Results. Invalid age claim rates increase with age from 65% at age 110-111 to 98% by age 115 to 100% for 120+ years. Eleven typologies of false claims were: Religious Authority Myth, Village Elder Myth, Fountain of Youth Myth (substance), Shangri-La Myth (geographic), Nationalist Pride, Spiritual Practice, Familial Longevity, Individual and/or Family Notoriety, Military Service, Administrative Entry Error, and Pension-Social Entitlement Fraud. Conclusions. Understanding various causes of false extreme age claims is important for placing current, past, and future extreme longevity claims in context and for providing a necessary level of skepticism.

  13. Bivariate extreme value distributions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Elshamy, M.

    1992-01-01

    In certain engineering applications, such as those occurring in the analyses of ascent structural loads for the Space Transportation System (STS), some of the load variables have a lower bound of zero. Thus, the need for practical models of bivariate extreme value probability distribution functions with lower limits was identified. We discuss the Gumbel models and present practical forms of bivariate extreme probability distributions of Weibull and Frechet types with two parameters. Bivariate extreme value probability distribution functions can be expressed in terms of the marginal extremel distributions and a 'dependence' function subject to certain analytical conditions. Properties of such bivariate extreme distributions, sums and differences of paired extremals, as well as the corresponding forms of conditional distributions, are discussed. Practical estimation techniques are also given.

  14. Projected changes in climate extremes over Qatar and the Arabian Gulf region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kundeti, K.; Kanikicharla, K. K.; Al sulaiti, M.; Khulaifi, M.; Alboinin, N.; Kito, A.

    2015-12-01

    The climate of the State of Qatar and the adjacent region is dominated by subtropical dry, hot desert climate with low annual rainfall, very high temperatures in summer and a big difference between maximum and minimum temperatures, especially in the inland areas. The coastal areas are influenced by the Arabian Gulf, and have lower maximum, but higher minimum temperatures and a higher moisture percentage in the air. The global warming can have profound impact on the mean climate as well as extreme weather events over the Arabian Peninsula that may affect both natural and human systems significantly. Therefore, it is important to assess the future changes in the seasonal/annual mean of temperature and precipitation and also the extremes in temperature and wind events for a country like Qatar. This study assesses the performance of the Coupled Model Inter comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations in present and develops future climate scenarios. The changes in climate extremes are assessed for three future periods 2016-2035, 2046-2065 and 2080-2099 with respect to 1986-2005 (base line) under two RCPs (Representative Concentrate Pathways) - RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. We analyzed the projected changes in temperature and precipitation extremes using several indices including those that capture heat stress. The observations show an increase in warm extremes over many parts in this region that are generally well captured by the models. The results indicate a significant change in frequency and intensity of both temperature and precipitation extremes over many parts of this region which may have serious implications on human health, water resources and the onshore/offshore infrastructure in this region. Data from a high-resolution (20km) AGCM simulation from Meteorological Research Institute of Japan Meteorological Agency for the present (1979-2003) and a future time slice (2075-2099) corresponding to RCP8.5 have also been utilized to assess the impact of climate change on

  15. Closing the Gap on Measuring Heat Waves

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Perkins, S. E.; Alexander, L.

    2012-12-01

    Since the 4th IPCC assessment report, the scientific literature has established that anthropogenic climate change encompasses adverse changes in both mean climate conditions and extreme events, such as heat waves. Indeed, the affects of heat waves are felt across many different sectors, and have high economic, human, and physical impacts over many global regions. The spatial and monetary scale of heat wave impacts emphasizes the necessity of measuring and studying such events in an informative manner, which gives justice to the geographical region affected, the communities impacted, and the climatic fields involved. However, due to such wide interest in heat waves, their definition remains broad in describing a period of consecutive days where conditions are excessively hotter than normal. This has allowed for the employment of a plethora of metrics, which are usually unique to a given sector, or do not appropriately describe some of the important features of heat wave events. As such, it is difficult to ascertain a clear message regarding changes in heat waves, both in the observed record and in projections of future climate. This study addresses this issue by developing a multi-index, multi-aspect framework in which to measure heat waves. The methodology was constructed by assessing a wide range of heat wave and heat wave-related indices, both proposed and employed in the scientific literature. The broad implications of the occurrences, frequency and duration of heat waves and respective changes were also highly considered. The resulting indices measure three or more consecutive days where 1) maximum temperature exceeds the 90th percentile (TX90pct); 2) minimum temperature exceeds the 90th percentile (TN90pct); and 3) daily average temperature has a positive excess heat factor (EHF). The 90th percentiles from which TX90pct and TN90pct are calculated are based on 15-day windows for each calendar day, whereas the EHF is based upon two pre-calculated indices that

  16. Global warming and extreme storm surges

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grinsted, Aslak

    2013-04-01

    I will show empirical evidence for how global warming has changed extreme storm surge statistics for different regions in the world. Are there any detectable changes beyond what we expect from sea level rise. What does this suggest about the future of hurricane surges such as from hurricane Katrina and superstorm Sandy?

  17. Surface atmospheric extremes (launch and transportation areas)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1974-01-01

    Criteria are provided on atmospheric extremes from the surface to 150 meters for geographical locations of interest to NASA. Thermal parameters (temperature and solar radiation), humidity, precipitation, pressure, and atmospheric electricity (lightning and static) are presented. Available data are also provided for the entire continental United States for use in future space programs.

  18. A Spatial Framework to Map Heat Health Risks at Multiple Scales

    PubMed Central

    Ho, Hung Chak; Knudby, Anders; Huang, Wei

    2015-01-01

    In the last few decades extreme heat events have led to substantial excess mortality, most dramatically in Central Europe in 2003, in Russia in 2010, and even in typically cool locations such as Vancouver, Canada, in 2009. Heat-related morbidity and mortality is expected to increase over the coming centuries as the result of climate-driven global increases in the severity and frequency of extreme heat events. Spatial information on heat exposure and population vulnerability may be combined to map the areas of highest risk and focus mitigation efforts there. However, a mismatch in spatial resolution between heat exposure and vulnerability data can cause spatial scale issues such as the Modifiable Areal Unit Problem (MAUP). We used a raster-based model to integrate heat exposure and vulnerability data in a multi-criteria decision analysis, and compared it to the traditional vector-based model. We then used the Getis-Ord Gi index to generate spatially smoothed heat risk hotspot maps from fine to coarse spatial scales. The raster-based model allowed production of maps at spatial resolution, more description of local-scale heat risk variability, and identification of heat-risk areas not identified with the vector-based approach. Spatial smoothing with the Getis-Ord Gi index produced heat risk hotspots from local to regional spatial scale. The approach is a framework for reducing spatial scale issues in future heat risk mapping, and for identifying heat risk hotspots at spatial scales ranging from the block-level to the municipality level. PMID:26694445

  19. A Spatial Framework to Map Heat Health Risks at Multiple Scales.

    PubMed

    Ho, Hung Chak; Knudby, Anders; Huang, Wei

    2015-12-18

    In the last few decades extreme heat events have led to substantial excess mortality, most dramatically in Central Europe in 2003, in Russia in 2010, and even in typically cool locations such as Vancouver, Canada, in 2009. Heat-related morbidity and mortality is expected to increase over the coming centuries as the result of climate-driven global increases in the severity and frequency of extreme heat events. Spatial information on heat exposure and population vulnerability may be combined to map the areas of highest risk and focus mitigation efforts there. However, a mismatch in spatial resolution between heat exposure and vulnerability data can cause spatial scale issues such as the Modifiable Areal Unit Problem (MAUP). We used a raster-based model to integrate heat exposure and vulnerability data in a multi-criteria decision analysis, and compared it to the traditional vector-based model. We then used the Getis-Ord G(i) index to generate spatially smoothed heat risk hotspot maps from fine to coarse spatial scales. The raster-based model allowed production of maps at spatial resolution, more description of local-scale heat risk variability, and identification of heat-risk areas not identified with the vector-based approach. Spatial smoothing with the Getis-Ord G(i) index produced heat risk hotspots from local to regional spatial scale. The approach is a framework for reducing spatial scale issues in future heat risk mapping, and for identifying heat risk hotspots at spatial scales ranging from the block-level to the municipality level.

  20. Extreme Weather and Climate: Workshop Report

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sobel, Adam; Camargo, Suzana; Debucquoy, Wim; Deodatis, George; Gerrard, Michael; Hall, Timothy; Hallman, Robert; Keenan, Jesse; Lall, Upmanu; Levy, Marc; Orlove, Ben; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Seager, Richard; Shaman, Jeffrey; Tippett, Michael

    2016-01-01

    Extreme events are the aspects of climate to which human society is most sensitive. Due to both their severity and their rarity, extreme events can challenge the capacity of physical, social, economic and political infrastructures, turning natural events into human disasters. Yet, because they are low frequency events, the science of extreme events is very challenging. Among the challenges is the difficulty of connecting extreme events to longer-term, large-scale variability and trends in the climate system, including anthropogenic climate change. How can we best quantify the risks posed by extreme weather events, both in the current climate and in the warmer and different climates to come? How can we better predict them? What can we do to reduce the harm done by such events? In response to these questions, the Initiative on Extreme Weather and Climate has been created at Columbia University in New York City (extreme weather.columbia.edu). This Initiative is a University-wide activity focused on understanding the risks to human life, property, infrastructure, communities, institutions, ecosystems, and landscapes from extreme weather events, both in the present and future climates, and on developing solutions to mitigate those risks. In May 2015,the Initiative held its first science workshop, entitled Extreme Weather and Climate: Hazards, Impacts, Actions. The purpose of the workshop was to define the scope of the Initiative and tremendously broad intellectual footprint of the topic indicated by the titles of the presentations (see Table 1). The intent of the workshop was to stimulate thought across disciplinary lines by juxtaposing talks whose subjects differed dramatically. Each session concluded with question and answer panel sessions. Approximately, 150 people were in attendance throughout the day. Below is a brief synopsis of each presentation. The synopses collectively reflect the variety and richness of the emerging extreme event research agenda.

  1. Extremal surface barriers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Engelhardt, Netta; Wall, Aron C.

    2014-03-01

    We present a generic condition for Lorentzian manifolds to have a barrier that limits the reach of boundary-anchored extremal surfaces of arbitrary dimension. We show that any surface with nonpositive extrinsic curvature is a barrier, in the sense that extremal surfaces cannot be continuously deformed past it. Furthermore, the outermost barrier surface has nonnegative extrinsic curvature. Under certain conditions, we show that the existence of trapped surfaces implies a barrier, and conversely. In the context of AdS/CFT, these barriers imply that it is impossible to reconstruct the entire bulk using extremal surfaces. We comment on the implications for the firewall controversy.

  2. Heat Islands

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    EPA's Heat Island Effect Site provides information on heat islands, their impacts, mitigation strategies, related research, a directory of heat island reduction initiatives in U.S. communities, and EPA's Heat Island Reduction Program.

  3. Development of an Extreme Environment Materials Research Facility at Princeton

    SciTech Connect

    Cohen, A B; Tully, C G; Austin, R; Calaprice, F; McDonald, K; Ascione, G; Baker, G; Davidson, R; Dudek, L; Grisham, L; Kugel, H; Pagdon, K; Stevenson, T; Woolley, R; Zwicker, A

    2010-11-17

    The need for a fundamental understanding of material response to a neutron and/or high heat flux environment can yield development of improved materials and operations with existing materials. Such understanding has numerous applications in fields such as nuclear power (for the current fleet and future fission and fusion reactors), aerospace, and other research fields (e.g., high-intensity proton accelerator facilities for high energy physics research). A proposal has been advanced to develop a facility for testing various materials under extreme heat and neutron exposure conditions at Princeton. The Extreme Environment Materials Research Facility comprises an environmentally controlled chamber (48 m^3) capable of high vacuum conditions, with extreme flux beams and probe beams accessing a central, large volume target. The facility will have the capability to expose large surface areas (1 m^2) to 14 MeV neutrons at a fluence in excess of 10^13 n/s. Depending on the operating mode. Additionally beam line power on the order of 15-75 MW/m2 for durations of 1-15 seconds are planned... The multi-second duration of exposure can be repeated every 2-10 minutes for periods of 10-12 hours. The facility will be housed in the test cell that held the Tokamak Fusion Test Reactor (TFTR), which has the desired radiation and safety controls as well as the necessary loading and assembly infrastructure. The facility will allow testing of various materials to their physical limit of thermal endurance and allow for exploring the interplay between radiation-induced embrittlement, swelling and deformation of materials, and the fatigue and fracturing that occur in response to thermal shocks. The combination of high neutron energies and intense fluences will enable accelerated time scale studies. The results will make contributions for refining predictive failure modes (modeling) in extreme environments, as well as providing a technical platform for the development of new alloys, new

  4. Sensitivity to thermal extremes in Australian Drosophila implies similar impacts of climate change on the distribution of widespread and tropical species.

    PubMed

    Overgaard, Johannes; Kearney, Michael R; Hoffmann, Ary A

    2014-06-01

    Climatic factors influence the distribution of ectotherms, raising the possibility that distributions of many species will shift rapidly under climate change and/or that species will become locally extinct. Recent studies have compared performance curves of species from different climate zones and suggested that tropical species may be more susceptible to climate change than those from temperate environments. However, in other comparisons involving responses to thermal extremes it has been suggested that mid-latitude populations are more susceptible. Using a group of 10 closely related Drosophila species with known tropical or widespread distribution, we undertake a detailed investigation of their growth performance curves and their tolerance to thermal extremes. Thermal sensitivity of life history traits (fecundity, developmental success, and developmental time) and adult heat resistance were similar in tropical and widespread species groups, while widespread species had higher adult cold tolerance under all acclimation regimes. Laboratory measurements of either population growth capacity or acute tolerance to heat and cold extremes were compared to daily air temperature under current (2002-2007) and future (2100) conditions to investigate if these traits could explain current distributions and, therefore, also forecast future effects of climate change. Life history traits examining the thermal sensitivity of population growth proved to be a poor predictor of current species distributions. In contrast, we validate that adult tolerance to thermal extremes provides a good correlate of current distributions. Thus, in their current distribution range, most of the examined species experience heat exposure close to, but rarely above, the functional heat resistance limit. Similarly, adult functional cold resistance proved a good predictor of species distribution in cooler climates. When using the species' functional tolerance limits under a global warming scenario, we

  5. Extreme environments and exobiology.

    PubMed

    Friedmann, E I

    1993-01-01

    Ecological research on extreme environments can be applied to exobiological problems such as the question of life on Mars. If life forms (fossil or extant) are found on Mars, their study will help to solve fundamental questions about the nature of life on Earth. Extreme environments that are beyond the range of adaptability of their inhabitants are defined as "absolute extreme". Such environments can serve as terrestrial models for the last stages of life in the history of Mars, when the surface cooled down and atmosphere and water disappeared. The cryptoendolithic microbial community in porous rocks of the Ross Desert in Antarctica and the microbial mats at the bottom of frozen Antarctic lakes are such examples. The microbial communities of Siberian permafrost show that, in frozen but stable communities, long-term survival is possible. In the context of terraforming Mars, selected microorganisms isolated from absolute extreme environments are considered for use in creation of a biological carbon cycle.

  6. Survival of extreme opinions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hsu, Jiann-wien; Huang, Ding-wei

    2009-12-01

    We study the survival of extreme opinions in various processes of consensus formation. All the opinions are treated equally and subjected to the same rules of changing. We investigate three typical models to reach a consensus in each case: (A) personal influence, (B) influence from surroundings, and (C) influence to surroundings. Starting with uniformly distributed random opinions, our calculated results show that the extreme opinions can survive in both models (A) and (B), but not in model (C). We obtain a conclusion that both personal influence and passive adaptation to the environment are not sufficient enough to eradicate all the extreme opinions. Only the active persuasion to change the surroundings eliminates the extreme opinions completely.

  7. Extreme environments and exobiology

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Friedmann, E. I.

    1993-01-01

    Ecological research on extreme environments can be applied to exobiological problems such as the question of life on Mars. If life forms (fossil or extant) are found on Mars, their study will help to solve fundamental questions about the nature of life on Earth. Extreme environments that are beyond the range of adaptability of their inhabitants are defined as "absolute extreme". Such environments can serve as terrestrial models for the last stages of life in the history of Mars, when the surface cooled down and atmosphere and water disappeared. The cryptoendolithic microbial community in porous rocks of the Ross Desert in Antarctica and the microbial mats at the bottom of frozen Antarctic lakes are such examples. The microbial communities of Siberian permafrost show that, in frozen but stable communities, long-term survival is possible. In the context of terraforming Mars, selected microorganisms isolated from absolute extreme environments are considered for use in creation of a biological carbon cycle.

  8. USACE Extreme Sea levels

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2014-03-14

    into Extreme Water Level Characterization 9 September 2013 Attendees: Heidi Moritz, Kate White, Jonathan Simm, Robert Nicholls, Peter Hawkes...adaptation. Robert Nicholls raised the question of how well do we feel that we understand the present extreme climate? We should start with this area...the peer-review and acceptance process for a journal paper. Robert suggested that most of the papers which are needed for an analysis today may be

  9. Extreme Weather Events and Climate Change Attribution

    SciTech Connect

    Thomas, Katherine

    2016-03-31

    A report from the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine concludes it is now possible to estimate the influence of climate change on some types of extreme events. The science of extreme event attribution has advanced rapidly in recent years, giving new insight to the ways that human-caused climate change can influence the magnitude or frequency of some extreme weather events. This report examines the current state of science of extreme weather attribution, and identifies ways to move the science forward to improve attribution capabilities. Confidence is strongest in attributing types of extreme events that are influenced by climate change through a well-understood physical mechanism, such as, the more frequent heat waves that are closely connected to human-caused global temperature increases, the report finds. Confidence is lower for other types of events, such as hurricanes, whose relationship to climate change is more complex and less understood at present. For any extreme event, the results of attribution studies hinge on how questions about the event's causes are posed, and on the data, modeling approaches, and statistical tools chosen for the analysis.

  10. An agent-based approach to modelling the effects of extreme events on global food prices

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schewe, Jacob; Otto, Christian; Frieler, Katja

    2015-04-01

    Extreme climate events such as droughts or heat waves affect agricultural production in major food producing regions and therefore can influence the price of staple foods on the world market. There is evidence that recent dramatic spikes in grain prices were at least partly triggered by actual and/or expected supply shortages. The reaction of the market to supply changes is however highly nonlinear and depends on complex and interlinked processes such as warehousing, speculation, and export restrictions. Here we present for the first time an agent-based modelling framework that accounts, in simplified terms, for these processes and allows to estimate the reaction of world food prices to supply shocks on a short (monthly) timescale. We test the basic model using observed historical supply, demand, and price data of wheat as a major food grain. Further, we illustrate how the model can be used in conjunction with biophysical crop models to assess the effect of future changes in extreme event regimes on the volatility of food prices. In particular, the explicit representation of storage dynamics makes it possible to investigate the potentially nonlinear interaction between simultaneous extreme events in different food producing regions, or between several consecutive events in the same region, which may both occur more frequently under future global warming.

  11. Futures Conditional.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Theobald, Robert

    The readings presented here are designed to help the reader perceive the future more vividly. Part one of the book suggests the various ways in which the future can be seen; it includes science fiction and the views of various analysts as to what the future holds. Part two collects printed materials about the future from various sources, including…

  12. Tales of future weather

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hazeleger, W.; van den Hurk, B. J. J. M.; Min, E.; van Oldenborgh, G. J.; Petersen, A. C.; Stainforth, D. A.; Vasileiadou, E.; Smith, L. A.

    2015-02-01

    Society is vulnerable to extreme weather events and, by extension, to human impacts on future events. As climate changes weather patterns will change. The search is on for more effective methodologies to aid decision-makers both in mitigation to avoid climate change and in adaptation to changes. The traditional approach uses ensembles of climate model simulations, statistical bias correction, downscaling to the spatial and temporal scales relevant to decision-makers, and then translation into quantities of interest. The veracity of this approach cannot be tested, and it faces in-principle challenges. Alternatively, numerical weather prediction models in a hypothetical climate setting can provide tailored narratives for high-resolution simulations of high-impact weather in a future climate. This 'tales of future weather' approach will aid in the interpretation of lower-resolution simulations. Arguably, it potentially provides complementary, more realistic and more physically consistent pictures of what future weather might look like.

  13. Mood responses to athletic performance in extreme environments.

    PubMed

    Lane, Andrew M; Terry, Peter C; Stevens, Matthew J; Barney, Sam; Dinsdale, Sarah L

    2004-10-01

    Competition at elite level can require athletes to perform optimally in extreme environmental conditions. This review focuses on mood responses in such conditions and proposes practical guidelines for those working with athletes. Different environments are considered, including altitude and extreme heat and cold. Performing in extreme heat, cold or at altitude can produce a stress response characterized by increased negative mood and relatively poor performance. Positive adaptations to extreme conditions can be accelerated, but the rate of adaptation appears to be highly individualized. Monitoring mood responses to training under normal conditions provides a basis for identifying the psychological effects of extreme conditions. It is suggested that practitioners carefully monitor the interplay between vigour, fatigue and depressed mood. Reductions in vigour and increases in fatigue are normal responses to hard training, but other aspects of mood disturbance, especially symptoms of depressed mood--however small--may be indicative of a maladaptive response, and practitioners should consider intervening when such symptoms first appear.

  14. Assessing Regional Scale Variability in Extreme Value Statistics Under Altered Climate Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Brunsell, Nathaniel; Mechem, David; Ma, Chunsheng

    2015-02-20

    Recent studies have suggested that low-frequency modes of climate variability can significantly influence regional climate. The climatology associated with extreme events has been shown to be particularly sensitive. This has profound implications for droughts, heat waves, and food production. We propose to examine regional climate simulations conducted over the continental United States by applying a recently developed technique which combines wavelet multi–resolution analysis with information theory metrics. This research is motivated by two fundamental questions concerning the spatial and temporal structure of extreme events. These questions are 1) what temporal scales of the extreme value distributions are most sensitive to alteration by low-frequency climate forcings and 2) what is the nature of the spatial structure of variation in these timescales? The primary objective is to assess to what extent information theory metrics can be useful in characterizing the nature of extreme weather phenomena. Specifically, we hypothesize that (1) changes in the nature of extreme events will impact the temporal probability density functions and that information theory metrics will be sensitive these changes and (2) via a wavelet multi–resolution analysis, we will be able to characterize the relative contribution of different timescales on the stochastic nature of extreme events. In order to address these hypotheses, we propose a unique combination of an established regional climate modeling approach and advanced statistical techniques to assess the effects of low-frequency modes on climate extremes over North America. The behavior of climate extremes in RCM simulations for the 20th century will be compared with statistics calculated from the United States Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) and simulations from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). This effort will serve to establish the baseline behavior of climate extremes, the

  15. Data informatics for the Detection, Characterization, and Attribution of Climate Extremes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Collins, W.; Wehner, M. F.; O'Brien, T. A.; Paciorek, C. J.; Krishnan, H.; Johnson, J. N.; Prabhat, M.

    2015-12-01

    The potential for increasing frequency and intensity of extremephenomena including downpours, heat waves, and tropical cyclonesconstitutes one of the primary risks of climate change for society andthe environment. The challenge of characterizing these risks is thatextremes represent the "tails" of distributions of atmosphericphenomena and are, by definition, highly localized and typicallyrelatively transient. Therefore very large volumes of observationaldata and projections of future climate are required to quantify theirproperties in a robust manner. Massive data analytics are required inorder to detect individual extremes, accumulate statistics on theirproperties, quantify how these statistics are changing with time, andattribute the effects of anthropogenic global warming on thesestatistics. We describe examples of the suite of techniques the climate communityis developing to address these analytical challenges. The techniquesinclude massively parallel methods for detecting and trackingatmospheric rivers and cyclones; data-intensive extensions togeneralized extreme value theory to summarize the properties ofextremes; and multi-model ensembles of hindcasts to quantify theattributable risk of anthropogenic influence on individual extremes.We conclude by highlighting examples of these methods developed by ourCASCADE (Calibrated and Systematic Characterization, Attribution, andDetection of Extremes) project.

  16. Self organizing maps in urban heat stress projections

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Kyoung

    2016-04-01

    A self organizing map (SOM) is an unsupervised machine learning algorithm well suited for identifying patterns in large datasets. It has been used successfully to classify atmospheric states in climate data and as part of statistical downscaling procedures. This study aims to use SOMs to produce downscaled CMIP5-based projections of wet-bulb temperature in urban areas, taking into account the regional atmospheric state and learned local dynamics. These downscaled projections will be compared to the CMIP5 models as well as to observations and then used to project local extreme heat stress events in the future.

  17. Impacts of Climate Change On The Occurrence of Extreme Events: The Mice Project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Palutikof, J. P.; Mice Team

    It is widely accepted that climate change due to global warming will have substan- tial impacts on the natural environment, and on human activities. Furthermore, it is increasingly recognized that changes in the severity and frequency of extreme events, such as windstorm and flood, are likely to be more important than changes in the average climate. The EU-funded project MICE (Modelling the Impacts of Climate Extremes) commenced in January 2002. It seeks to identify the likely changes in the occurrence of extremes of rainfall, temperature and windstorm due to global warm- ing, using information from climate models as a basis, and to study the impacts of these changes in selected European environments. The objectives are: a) to evaluate, by comparison with gridded and station observations, the ability of climate models to successfully reproduce the occurrence of extremes at the required spatial and temporal scales. b) to analyse model output with respect to future changes in the occurrence of extremes. Statistical analyses will determine changes in (i) the return periods of ex- tremes, (ii) the joint probability of extremes (combinations of damaging events such as windstorm followed by heavy rain), (iii) the sequential behaviour of extremes (whether events are well-separated or clustered) and (iv) the spatial patterns of extreme event occurrence across Europe. The range of uncertainty in model predictions will be ex- plored by analysing changes in model experiments with different spatial resolutions and forcing scenarios. c) to determine the impacts of the predicted changes in extremes occurrence on selected activity sectors: agriculture (Mediterranean drought), commer- cial forestry and natural forest ecosystems (windstorm and flood in northern Europe, fire in the Mediterranean), energy use (temperature extremes), tourism (heat stress and Mediterranean beach holidays, changes in the snow pack and winter sports ) and civil protection/insurance (windstorm and flood

  18. Historical influence of irrigation on climate extremes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thiery, Wim; Davin, Edouard L.; Lawrence, Dave; Hauser, Mathias; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

    2016-04-01

    Land irrigation is an essential practice sustaining global food production and many regional economies. During the last decades, irrigation amounts have been growing rapidly. Emerging scientific evidence indicates that land irrigation substantially affects mean climate conditions in different regions of the world. However, a thorough understanding of the impact of irrigation on extreme climatic conditions, such as heat waves, droughts or intense precipitation, is currently still lacking. In this context, we aim to assess the historical influence of irrigation on the occurrence of climate extremes. To this end, two simulations are conducted over the period 1910-2010 with a state-of-the-art global climate model (the Community Earth System Model, CESM): a control simulation including all major anthropogenic and natural external forcings except for irrigation and a second experiment with transient irrigation enabled. The two simulations are evaluated for their ability to represent (i) hot, dry and wet extremes using the HadEX2 and ERA-Interim datasets as a reference, and (ii) latent heat fluxes using LandFlux-EVAL. Assuming a linear combination of climatic responses to different forcings, the difference between both experiments approximates the influence of irrigation. We will analyse the impact of irrigation on a number of climate indices reflecting the intensity and duration of heat waves. Thereby, particular attention is given to the role of soil moisture changes in modulating climate extremes. Furthermore, the contribution of individual biogeophysical processes to the total impact of irrigation on hot extremes is quantified by application of a surface energy balance decomposition technique to the 90th and 99th percentile surface temperature changes.

  19. Moving in extreme environments: extreme loading; carriage versus distance.

    PubMed

    Lucas, Samuel J E; Helge, Jørn W; Schütz, Uwe H W; Goldman, Ralph F; Cotter, James D

    2016-01-01

    This review addresses human capacity for movement in the context of extreme loading and with it the combined effects of metabolic, biomechanical and gravitational stress on the human body. This topic encompasses extreme duration, as occurs in ultra-endurance competitions (e.g. adventure racing and transcontinental races) and expeditions (e.g. polar crossings), to the more gravitationally limited load carriage (e.g. in the military context). Juxtaposed to these circumstances is the extreme metabolic and mechanical unloading associated with space travel, prolonged bedrest and sedentary lifestyle, which may be at least as problematic, and are therefore included as a reference, e.g. when considering exposure, dangers and (mal)adaptations. As per the other reviews in this series, we describe the nature of the stress and the associated consequences; illustrate relevant regulations, including why and how they are set; present the pros and cons for self versus prescribed acute and chronic exposure; describe humans' (mal)adaptations; and finally suggest future directions for practice and research. In summary, we describe adaptation patterns that are often U or J shaped and that over time minimal or no load carriage decreases the global load carrying capacity and eventually leads to severe adverse effects and manifest disease under minimal absolute but high relative loads. We advocate that further understanding of load carrying capacity and the inherent mechanisms leading to adverse effects may advantageously be studied in this perspective. With improved access to insightful and portable technologies, there are some exciting possibilities to explore these questions in this context.

  20. Characterization of extreme sea level at the European coast

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Elizalde, Alberto; Jorda, Gabriel; Mathis, Moritz; Mikolajewicz, Uwe

    2015-04-01

    Extreme high sea levels arise as a combination of storm surges and particular high tides events. Future climate simulations not only project changes in the atmospheric circulation, which induces changes in the wind conditions, but also an increase in the global mean sea level by thermal expansion and ice melting. Such changes increase the risk of coastal flooding, which represents a possible hazard for human activities. Therefore, it is important to investigate the pattern of sea level variability and long-term trends at coastal areas. In order to analyze further extreme sea level events at the European coast in the future climate projections, a new setup for the global ocean model MPIOM coupled with the regional atmosphere model REMO is prepared. The MPIOM irregular grid has enhanced resolution in the European region to resolve the North and the Mediterranean Seas (up to 11 x 11 km at the North Sea). The ocean model includes as well the full luni-solar ephemeridic tidal potential for tides simulation. To simulate the air-sea interaction, the regional atmospheric model REMO is interactively coupled to the ocean model over Europe. Such region corresponds to the EuroCORDEX domain with a 50 x 50 km resolution. Besides the standard fluxes of heat, mass (freshwater), momentum and turbulent energy input, the ocean model is also forced with sea level pressure, in order to be able to capture the full variation of sea level. The hydrological budget within the study domain is closed using a hydrological discharge model. With this model, simulations for present climate and future climate scenarios are carried out to study transient changes on the sea level and extreme events. As a first step, two simulations (coupled and uncoupled ocean) driven by reanalysis data (ERA40) have been conducted. They are used as reference runs to evaluate the climate projection simulations. For selected locations at the coast side, time series of sea level are separated on its different

  1. Trends in rainy season characteristics and temperature extremes over Mexico

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dewes, C. F.; Gautier, C.; Jones, C.; Eakin, H.; Carvalho, L. V.

    2009-12-01

    There are significant uncertainties associated with the direction of change in climate patterns over Mexico. Many studies suggest that with global warming the country will experience impacts similar to those suffered during El Niño events, since a similar shift may occur in circulation regimes related to the North American Monsoon and also to sub-regional patterns such as the mid-summer drought. It is expected that the anomalously drier conditions experienced during El Niño events become a norm in the future. Also, in a scenario of higher mean temperatures, the occurrence of extreme temperature events becomes more likely. Heat waves can be devastating by themselves, but if they strike in the middle of a drought period, the effects of both are enhanced. Mexico is particularly vulnerable to climate variability, for its economy and population welfare are highly dependent on agriculture. The onset of the rainy season in spring and the occurrence of frost in fall are natural delimiters to the length of growing season. Intense precipitation mostly results in lixiviation of soil nutrients and high erosion rates, while moisture deficits and extremely high temperatures during crop flowering period can be detrimental to maize kernel development. In this study we will investigate the variability and trends of a set of indices that characterize the rainy season and the occurrence of extreme temperature events (Table 1). We will use daily precipitation (PPT) and maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) temperature fields from the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR), in a sub-domain limited to Mexico, for the period 1979-2008. Daily Tmax and Tmin will be derived from 3-hourly outputs of air temperature at 2 m. All indices are seasonal and will be computed per grid point. However, the visualization of the temporal variability of these indices on a horizontal plane can be challenging. A regionalization procedure will therefore be tested. Regions delimited by coherent

  2. Extreme Programming: Maestro Style

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Norris, Jeffrey; Fox, Jason; Rabe, Kenneth; Shu, I-Hsiang; Powell, Mark

    2009-01-01

    "Extreme Programming: Maestro Style" is the name of a computer programming methodology that has evolved as a custom version of a methodology, called extreme programming that has been practiced in the software industry since the late 1990s. The name of this version reflects its origin in the work of the Maestro team at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory that develops software for Mars exploration missions. Extreme programming is oriented toward agile development of software resting on values of simplicity, communication, testing, and aggressiveness. Extreme programming involves use of methods of rapidly building and disseminating institutional knowledge among members of a computer-programming team to give all the members a shared view that matches the view of the customers for whom the software system is to be developed. Extreme programming includes frequent planning by programmers in collaboration with customers, continually examining and rewriting code in striving for the simplest workable software designs, a system metaphor (basically, an abstraction of the system that provides easy-to-remember software-naming conventions and insight into the architecture of the system), programmers working in pairs, adherence to a set of coding standards, collaboration of customers and programmers, frequent verbal communication, frequent releases of software in small increments of development, repeated testing of the developmental software by both programmers and customers, and continuous interaction between the team and the customers. The environment in which the Maestro team works requires the team to quickly adapt to changing needs of its customers. In addition, the team cannot afford to accept unnecessary development risk. Extreme programming enables the Maestro team to remain agile and provide high-quality software and service to its customers. However, several factors in the Maestro environment have made it necessary to modify some of the conventional extreme

  3. Microbial diversity of extreme habitats in human homes

    PubMed Central

    Hills, Justin; Driscoll, Katherine; Fergus, Daniel J.; Grunden, Amy M.; Dunn, Robert R.

    2016-01-01

    High-throughput sequencing techniques have opened up the world of microbial diversity to scientists, and a flurry of studies in the most remote and extreme habitats on earth have begun to elucidate the key roles of microbes in ecosystems with extreme conditions. These same environmental extremes can also be found closer to humans, even in our homes. Here, we used high-throughput sequencing techniques to assess bacterial and archaeal diversity in the extreme environments inside human homes (e.g., dishwashers, hot water heaters, washing machine bleach reservoirs, etc.). We focused on habitats in the home with extreme temperature, pH, and chemical environmental conditions. We found a lower diversity of microbes in these extreme home environments compared to less extreme habitats in the home. However, we were nonetheless able to detect sequences from a relatively diverse array of bacteria and archaea. Habitats with extreme temperatures alone appeared to be able to support a greater diversity of microbes than habitats with extreme pH or extreme chemical environments alone. Microbial diversity was lowest when habitats had both extreme temperature and one of these other extremes. In habitats with both extreme temperatures and extreme pH, taxa with known associations with extreme conditions dominated. Our findings highlight the importance of examining interactive effects of multiple environmental extremes on microbial communities. Inasmuch as taxa from extreme environments can be both beneficial and harmful to humans, our findings also suggest future work to understand both the threats and opportunities posed by the life in these habitats. PMID:27672493

  4. Effects of Autumn and Spring Heat Waves on Seed Germination of High Mountain Plants

    PubMed Central

    Orsenigo, Simone; Abeli, Thomas; Rossi, Graziano; Bonasoni, Paolo; Pasquaretta, Cristian; Gandini, Maurizia; Mondoni, Andrea

    2015-01-01

    Alpine plants are considered to be particularly vulnerable to climate change and related extreme episodes, such as heat waves. Despite growing interest in the impact of heat waves on alpine plants, knowledge about their effects on regeneration is still fragmentary. Recruitment from seeds will be crucial for the successful migration and survival of these species and will play a key role in their future adaptation to climate change. In this study, we assessed the impacts of heat waves on the seed germination of 53 high mountain plants from the Northern Apennines (Italy). The seeds were exposed to laboratory simulations of three seasonal temperature treatments, derived from real data recorded at a meteorological station near the species growing site, which included two heat wave episodes that occurred both in spring 2003 and in autumn 2011. Moreover, to consider the effect of increasing drought conditions related to heat waves, seed germination was also investigated under four different water potentials. In the absence of heat waves, seed germination mainly occurred in spring, after seeds had experienced autumn and winter seasons. However, heat waves resulted in a significant increase of spring germination in c. 30% of the species and elicited autumn germination in 50%. When heat waves were coupled with drought, seed germination decreased in all species, but did not stop completely. Our results suggest that in the future, heat waves will affect the germination phenology of alpine plants, especially conditionally dormant and strictly cold-adapted chorotypes, by shifting the emergence time from spring to autumn and by increasing the proportion of emerged seedlings. The detrimental effects of heat waves on recruitment success is less likely to be due to the inhibition of seed germination per se, but rather due to seedling survival in seasons, and temperature and water conditions that they are not used to experiencing. Changes in the proportion and timing of emergence

  5. Changes of western European heat wave characteristics projected by the CMIP5 ensemble

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schoetter, Robert; Cattiaux, Julien; Douville, Hervé

    2015-09-01

    We investigate heat waves defined as periods of at least 3 consecutive days of extremely high daily maximum temperature affecting at least 30 % of western Europe. This definition has been chosen to select heat waves that might impact western European electricity supply. Even though not all such heat waves threaten it, the definition allows to identify a sufficient number of events, the strongest being potentially harmful. The heat waves are characterised by their duration, spatial extent, intensity and severity. The heat wave characteristics are calculated for historical and future climate based on results of climate model simulations conducted during the 5th Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The uncertainty of future anthropogenic forcing is taken into account by analysing results for the Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The historical simulations are evaluated against the EOBS gridded station data. The CMIP5 ensemble median captures well the observed mean heat wave characteristics. However, no model simulates a heat wave as severe as observed during August 2003. Under future climate conditions, the heat waves become more frequent and have higher mean duration, extent and intensity. The ensemble spread is larger than the scenario uncertainty. The shift of the temperature distribution is more important for the increase of the cumulative heat wave severity than the broadening of the temperature distribution. However, the broadening leads to an amplification of the cumulative heat wave severity by a factor of 1.7 for RCP4.5 and 1.5 for RCP8.5.

  6. Effects of Autumn and Spring Heat Waves on Seed Germination of High Mountain Plants.

    PubMed

    Orsenigo, Simone; Abeli, Thomas; Rossi, Graziano; Bonasoni, Paolo; Pasquaretta, Cristian; Gandini, Maurizia; Mondoni, Andrea

    2015-01-01

    Alpine plants are considered to be particularly vulnerable to climate change and related extreme episodes, such as heat waves. Despite growing interest in the impact of heat waves on alpine plants, knowledge about their effects on regeneration is still fragmentary. Recruitment from seeds will be crucial for the successful migration and survival of these species and will play a key role in their future adaptation to climate change. In this study, we assessed the impacts of heat waves on the seed germination of 53 high mountain plants from the Northern Apennines (Italy). The seeds were exposed to laboratory simulations of three seasonal temperature treatments, derived from real data recorded at a meteorological station near the species growing site, which included two heat wave episodes that occurred both in spring 2003 and in autumn 2011. Moreover, to consider the effect of increasing drought conditions related to heat waves, seed germination was also investigated under four different water potentials. In the absence of heat waves, seed germination mainly occurred in spring, after seeds had experienced autumn and winter seasons. However, heat waves resulted in a significant increase of spring germination in c. 30% of the species and elicited autumn germination in 50%. When heat waves were coupled with drought, seed germination decreased in all species, but did not stop completely. Our results suggest that in the future, heat waves will affect the germination phenology of alpine plants, especially conditionally dormant and strictly cold-adapted chorotypes, by shifting the emergence time from spring to autumn and by increasing the proportion of emerged seedlings. The detrimental effects of heat waves on recruitment success is less likely to be due to the inhibition of seed germination per se, but rather due to seedling survival in seasons, and temperature and water conditions that they are not used to experiencing. Changes in the proportion and timing of emergence

  7. Acclimation responses to temperature vary with vertical stratification: implications for vulnerability of soil-dwelling species to extreme temperature events.

    PubMed

    van Dooremalen, Coby; Berg, Matty P; Ellers, Jacintha

    2013-03-01

    The occurrence of summer heat waves is predicted to increase in amplitude and frequency in the near future, but the consequences of such extreme events are largely unknown, especially for belowground organisms. Soil organisms usually exhibit strong vertical stratification, resulting in more frequent exposure to extreme temperatures for surface-dwelling species than for soil-dwelling species. Therefore soil-dwelling species are expected to have poor acclimation responses to cope with temperature changes. We used five species of surface-dwelling and four species of soil-dwelling Collembola that habituate different depths in the soil. We tested for differences in tolerance to extreme temperatures after acclimation to warm and cold conditions. We also tested for differences in acclimation of the underlying physiology by looking at changes in membrane lipid composition. Chill coma recovery time, heat knockdown time and fatty acid profiles were determined after 1 week of acclimation to either 5 or 20 °C. Our results showed that surface-dwelling Collembola better maintained increased heat tolerance across acclimation temperatures, but no such response was found for cold tolerance. Concordantly, four of the five surface-dwelling Collembola showed up to fourfold changes in relative abundance of fatty acids after 1 week of acclimation, whereas none of the soil-dwelling species showed a significant adjustment in fatty acid composition. Strong physiological responses to temperature fluctuations may have become redundant in soil-dwelling species due to the relative thermal stability of their subterranean habitat. Based on the results of the four species studied, we expect that unless soil-dwelling species can temporarily retreat to avoid extreme temperatures, the predicted increase in heat waves under climatic change renders these soil-dwelling species more vulnerable to extinction than species with better physiological capabilities. Being able to act under a larger thermal

  8. The ClimaGrowing Footprint of Climate Change: Can Systems Built Today Cope with Tomorrow's Weather Extremes?

    SciTech Connect

    Kintner-Meyer, Michael CW; Kraucunas, Ian P.

    2013-07-11

    This article describes how current climate conditions--with increasingly extreme storms, droughts, and heat waves and their ensuing effects on water quality and levels--are adding stress to an already aging power grid. Moreover, it explains how evaluations of said grid, built upon past weather patterns, are inaqeduate for measuring if the nation's energy systems can cope with future climate changes. The authors make the case for investing in the development of robust, integrated electricity planning tools that account for these climate change factors as a means for enhancing electricity infrastructure resilience.

  9. Heat pumps

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gilli, P. V.

    1982-11-01

    Heat pumps for residential/commercial space heating and hot tap water make use of free energy of direct or indirect solar heat and save from about 40 to about 70 percent of energy if compared to a conventional heating system with the same energy basis. In addition, the electrically driven compressor heat pump is able to substitute between 40% (bivalent alternative operation) to 100% (monovalent operation) of the fuel oil of an oilfired heating furnace. For average Central European conditions, solar space heating systems with high solar coverage factor show the following sequence of increasing cost effectiveness: pure solar systems (without heat pumps); heat pump assisted solar systems; solar assisted heat pump systems; subsoil/water heat pumps; air/water heat pumps; air/air heat pumps.

  10. Steady-State heat transfer through micro-channels in pressurized He II

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Granieri, Pier Paolo; Baudouy, Bertrand; Four, Aurelian; Lentijo, F.; Mapelli, Alessandro; Petagna, P.; Tommasini, Davide

    2012-06-01

    The operation of the Large Hadron Collider superconducting magnets for current and high luminosity future applications relies on the cooling provided by helium-permeable cable insulations. These insulations take advantage of a He II micro-channels network constituting an extremely efficient path for heat extraction. In order to provide a fundamental understanding of the underlying thermal mechanisms, an experimental setup was built to investigate heat transport through single He II channels typical of the superconducting cable insulation network, where deviation from the macro-scale theory can appear. Micro-fabrication techniques were exploited to etch the channels down to a depth of ~ 16 ìm. The heat transport properties were measured in static pressurized He II and analyzed in terms of the laminar and turbulent He II laws, as well as in terms of the critical heat flux between the two regions.

  11. Plasma Sloshing in Pulse-heated Solar and Stellar Coronal Loops

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reale, F.

    2016-08-01

    There is evidence that coronal heating is highly intermittent, and flares are the high energy extreme. The properties of the heat pulses are difficult to constrain. Here, hydrodynamic loop modeling shows that several large amplitude oscillations (˜20% in density) are triggered in flare light curves if the duration of the heat pulse is shorter than the sound crossing time of the flaring loop. The reason for this is that the plasma does not have enough time to reach pressure equilibrium during heating, and traveling pressure fronts develop. The period is a few minutes for typical solar coronal loops, dictated by the sound crossing time in the decay phase. The long period and large amplitude make these oscillations different from typical magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) waves. This diagnostic can be applied both to observations of solar and stellar flares and to future observations of non-flaring loops at high resolution.

  12. Modification of land-atmosphere interactions by CO2 effects: Implications for summer dryness and heat wave amplitude

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lemordant, Léo.; Gentine, Pierre; Stéfanon, Marc; Drobinski, Philippe; Fatichi, Simone

    2016-10-01

    Plant stomata couple the energy, water, and carbon cycles. We use the framework of Regional Climate Modeling to simulate the 2003 European heat wave and assess how higher levels of surface CO2 may affect such an extreme event through land-atmosphere interactions. Increased CO2 modifies the seasonality of the water cycle through stomatal regulation and increased leaf area. As a result, the water saved during the growing season through higher water use efficiency mitigates summer dryness and the heat wave impact. Land-atmosphere interactions and CO2 fertilization together synergistically contribute to increased summer transpiration. This, in turn, alters the surface energy budget and decreases sensible heat flux, mitigating air temperature rise. Accurate representation of the response to higher CO2 levels and of the coupling between the carbon and water cycles is therefore critical to forecasting seasonal climate, water cycle dynamics, and to enhance the accuracy of extreme event prediction under future climate.

  13. Lunar base heat pump

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Goldman, Jeffrey H.; Tetreault, R.; Fischbach, D.; Walker, D.

    1994-01-01

    A heat pump is a device which elevates the temperature of a heat flow by a means of an energy input. By doing this, the heat pump can cause heat to transfer faster from a warm region to a cool region, or it can cause heat to flow from a cool region to a warmer region. The second case is the one which finds vast commercial applications such as air conditioning, heating, and refrigeration. Aerospace applications of heat pumps include both cases. The NASA Johnson Space Center is currently developing a Life Support Systems Integration Facility (LSSIF, previously SIRF) to provide system-level integration, operational test experience, and performance data that will enable NASA to develop flight-certified hardware for future planetary missions. A high lift heat pump is a significant part of the TCS hardware development associated with the LSSIF. The high lift heat pump program discussed here is being performed in three phases. In Phase 1, the objective is to develop heat pump concepts for a lunar base, a lunar lander, and for a ground development unit for the SIRF. In Phase 2, the design of the SIRF ground test unit is being performed, including identification and evaluation of safety and reliability issues. In Phase 3, the SIRF unit will be manufactured, tested, and delivered to the NASA Johnson Space Center.

  14. Adventure and Extreme Sports.

    PubMed

    Gomez, Andrew Thomas; Rao, Ashwin

    2016-03-01

    Adventure and extreme sports often involve unpredictable and inhospitable environments, high velocities, and stunts. These activities vary widely and include sports like BASE jumping, snowboarding, kayaking, and surfing. Increasing interest and participation in adventure and extreme sports warrants understanding by clinicians to facilitate prevention, identification, and treatment of injuries unique to each sport. This article covers alpine skiing and snowboarding, skateboarding, surfing, bungee jumping, BASE jumping, and whitewater sports with emphasis on epidemiology, demographics, general injury mechanisms, specific injuries, chronic injuries, fatality data, and prevention. Overall, most injuries are related to overuse, trauma, and environmental or microbial exposure.

  15. Occult fractures of extremities.

    PubMed

    Ahn, Joong Mo; El-Khoury, Georges Y

    2007-05-01

    Recent advances in cross-sectional imaging, particularly in CT and MR imaging, have given these modalities a prominent role in the diagnosis of fractures of the extremities. This article describes the clinical application and imaging features of cross-sectional imaging (CT and MR imaging) in the evaluation of patients who have occult fractures of the extremities. Although CT or MR imaging is not typically required for evaluation of acute fractures, these modalities could be helpful in the evaluation of the occult osseous injuries in which radiographic findings are equivocal or inconclusive.

  16. Advanced heat pump cycle

    SciTech Connect

    Groll, E.A.; Radermacher, R.

    1993-07-01

    The desorption and absorption process of a vapor compression heat pump with a solution circuit (VCHSC) proceeds at gliding temperature intervals, which can be adjusted over a wide range. In case that the gliding temperature intervals in the desorber and the absorber overlap, a modification of the VCHSC employing a desorber/absorber heat exchange (DAHX) can be introduced, which results in an extreme reduction of the pressure ratio. Although the DAHX-cycle has features of a two-stage cycle, it still requires only one solution pump, one separator and one compressor. Such a cycle for the working pair ammonia/water is built in the Energy Laboratory of the Center for Environmental Energy Engineering at the University of Maryland. The experimental results obtained with the research plant are discussed and compared to those calculated with a simulation program. The possible temperature lift between heat source and heat sink depending on the achievable COP are presented.

  17. Future accelerators (?)

    SciTech Connect

    John Womersley

    2003-08-21

    I describe the future accelerator facilities that are currently foreseen for electroweak scale physics, neutrino physics, and nuclear structure. I will explore the physics justification for these machines, and suggest how the case for future accelerators can be made.

  18. Methane heat transfer investigation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1984-01-01

    Future high chamber pressure LOX/hydrocarbon booster engines require copper base alloy main combustion chamber coolant channels similar to the SSME to provide adequate cooling and reusable engine life. Therefore, it is of vital importance to evaluate the heat transfer characteristics and coking thresholds for LNG (94% methane) cooling, with a copper base alloy material adjacent to he fuel coolant. High pressure methane cooling and coking characteristics recently evaluated at Rocketdyne using stainless steel heated tubes at methane bulk temperatures and coolant wall temperatures typical of advanced engine operation except at lower heat fluxes as limited by the tube material. As expected, there was no coking observed. However, coking evaluations need be conducted with a copper base surface exposed to the methane coolant at higher heat fluxes approaching those of future high chamber pressure engines.

  19. Methane heat transfer investigation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cook, R. T.

    1984-01-01

    Future high chamber pressure LOX/hydrocarbon booster engines require copper-base alloy main combustion chamber coolant channels similar to the SSME to provide adequate cooling and resuable engine life. Therefore, it is of vital importance to evaluate the heat transfer characteristics and coking thresholds for LNG (94% methane) cooling, with a copper-base alloy material adjacent to the fuel coolant. High-pressure methane cooling and coking characteristics were recently evaluated using stainless-steel heated tubes at methane bulk temperatures and coolant wall temperatures typical of advanced engine operation except at lower heat fluxes as limited by the tube material. As expected, there was no coking observed. However, coking evaluations need be conducted with a copper-base surface exposed to the methane coolant at higher heat fluxes approaching those of future high chamber pressure engines.

  20. Lunar Base Heat Pump

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Walker, D.; Fischbach, D.; Tetreault, R.

    1996-01-01

    The objective of this project was to investigate the feasibility of constructing a heat pump suitable for use as a heat rejection device in applications such as a lunar base. In this situation, direct heat rejection through the use of radiators is not possible at a temperature suitable for lde support systems. Initial analysis of a heat pump of this type called for a temperature lift of approximately 378 deg. K, which is considerably higher than is commonly called for in HVAC and refrigeration applications where heat pumps are most often employed. Also because of the variation of the rejection temperature (from 100 to 381 deg. K), extreme flexibility in the configuration and operation of the heat pump is required. A three-stage compression cycle using a refrigerant such as CFC-11 or HCFC-123 was formulated with operation possible with one, two or three stages of compression. Also, to meet the redundancy requirements, compression was divided up over multiple compressors in each stage. A control scheme was devised that allowed these multiple compressors to be operated as required so that the heat pump could perform with variable heat loads and rejection conditions. A prototype heat pump was designed and constructed to investigate the key elements of the high-lift heat pump concept. Control software was written and implemented in the prototype to allow fully automatic operation. The heat pump was capable of operation over a wide range of rejection temperatures and cooling loads, while maintaining cooling water temperature well within the required specification of 40 deg. C +/- 1.7 deg. C. This performance was verified through testing.

  1. Biological Extreme Events: A Research Framework

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gutschick, Vincent P.; BassiriRad, Hormoz

    2010-03-01

    Efforts designed to understand and predict adaptation responses of organisms and populations to global climate change must make a clear distinction between responses to changes in average conditions (e.g., doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration accompanied by an average increase of 1°-3°C in global air temperature by the end of this century) and responses resulting from increased incidence of extreme events [Loehle and LeBlanc, 1996; Easterling et al., 2000; Garrett et al., 2006]. Such distinction is critical because, unlike changes in average conditions, extremes (e.g., megadroughts, fire, flooding, hurricanes, heat waves, and pest outbreaks) are typically short in duration but challenge organisms and populations considerably further