Climate change scenarios of heat waves in Central Europe and their uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lhotka, Ondřej; Kyselý, Jan; Farda, Aleš

2018-02-01

The study examines climate change scenarios of Central European heat waves with a focus on related uncertainties in a large ensemble of regional climate model (RCM) simulations from the EURO-CORDEX and ENSEMBLES projects. Historical runs (1970-1999) driven by global climate models (GCMs) are evaluated against the E-OBS gridded data set in the first step. Although the RCMs are found to reproduce the frequency of heat waves quite well, those RCMs with the coarser grid (25 and 50 km) considerably overestimate the frequency of severe heat waves. This deficiency is improved in higher-resolution (12.5 km) EURO-CORDEX RCMs. In the near future (2020-2049), heat waves are projected to be nearly twice as frequent in comparison to the modelled historical period, and the increase is even larger for severe heat waves. Uncertainty originates mainly from the selection of RCMs and GCMs because the increase is similar for all concentration scenarios. For the late twenty-first century (2070-2099), a substantial increase in heat wave frequencies is projected, the magnitude of which depends mainly upon concentration scenario. Three to four heat waves per summer are projected in this period (compared to less than one in the recent climate), and severe heat waves are likely to become a regular phenomenon. This increment is primarily driven by a positive shift of temperature distribution, but changes in its scale and enhanced temporal autocorrelation of temperature also contribute to the projected increase in heat wave frequencies.

Northern Eurasian Heat Waves and Droughts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schubert, Siegfried; Wang, Hailan; Koster, Randal; Suarez, Max; Groisman, Pavel

2013-01-01

This article reviews our understanding of the characteristics and causes of northern Eurasian summertime heat waves and droughts. Additional insights into the nature of temperature and precipitation variability in Eurasia on monthly to decadal time scales and into the causes and predictability of the most extreme events are gained from the latest generation of reanalyses and from supplemental simulations with the NASA GEOS-5 AGCM. Key new results are: 1) the identification of the important role of summertime stationary Rossby waves in the development of the leading patterns of monthly Eurasian surface temperature and precipitation variability (including the development of extreme events such as the 2010 Russian heat wave), 2) an assessment of the mean temperature and precipitation changes that have occurred over northern Eurasia in the last three decades and their connections to decadal variability and global trends in SST, and 3) the quantification (via a case study) of the predictability of the most extreme simulated heat wave/drought events, with some focus on the role of soil moisture in the development and maintenance of such events. A literature survey indicates a general consensus that the future holds an enhanced probability of heat waves across northern Eurasia, while there is less agreement regarding future drought, reflecting a greater uncertainty in soil moisture and precipitation projections. Substantial uncertainties remain in our understanding of heat waves and drought, including the nature of the interactions between the short-term atmospheric variability associated with such extremes and the longer-term variability and trends associated with soil moisture feedbacks, SST anomalies, and an overall warming world.

Mapping rural community and dairy cow heat stress in Southern Ontario: A common geographic pattern from 2010 to 2012.

PubMed

Bishop-Williams, Katherine E; Berke, Olaf; Pearl, David L; Kelton, David F

2016-07-03

Climate change has increased the occurrence of heat waves, causing heat stress among humans and livestock, with potentially fatal consequences. Heat stress maps provide information about related health risks and insight for control strategies. Weather data were collected throughout Southern Ontario, and the heat stress index (HSI) was estimated for 2010-2012. Geostatistical kriging was applied to map heat stress, heat waves, and control periods. Average HSI for each period ranged from 55 to 78 during control periods, and from 65 to 84 during heat waves, surpassing levels where morbidity is known to increase substantially. Heat stress followed a temporally consistent geographic pattern. HSI maps indicate high-risk areas for heat-related illness and indicate areas where agriculture and human health may be at increased risk in future.

Resiliency of the Nation's Power Grid: Assessing Risks of Premature Failure of Large Power Transformers Under Climate Warming and Increased Heat Waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schlosser, C. A.; Gao, X.; Morgan, E.

2017-12-01

The aging pieces of our nation's power grid - the largest machine ever built - are at a critical time. Key assets in the transmission system, including large power transformers (LPTs), are approaching their originally designed lifetimes. Moreover, extreme weather and climate events upon which these design lifetimes are partially based are expected to change. In particular, more frequent and intense heat waves can accelerate the degradation of LPTs' insulation/cooling system. Thus, there are likely thousands of LPTs across the United States under increasing risk of premature failure - yet this risk has not been assessed. In this study, we investigate the impact of climate warming and corresponding shifts in heat waves for critical LPTs located in the Northeast corridor of the United States to assess: To what extent do changes in heat waves/events present a rising threat to the transformer network over the Northeast U.S. and to what extent can climate mitigation reduce this risk? This study focuses on a collection of LPTs with a high degree of "betweenness" - while recognizing other factors such as: connectivity, voltage rating, MVA rating, approximate price, weight, location/proximity to major transportation routes, and age. To assess the risk of future change in heat wave occurrence we use an analogue method, which detects the occurrence of heat waves based on associated large-scale atmospheric conditions. This method is compared to the more conventional approach that uses model-simulated daily maximum temperature. Under future climate warming scenarios, multi-model medians of both methods indicate strong increases in heat wave frequency during the latter half of this century. Under weak climate mitigation - the risks imposed from heat wave occurrence could quadruple, but a modest mitigation scenario cuts the increasing threat in half. As important, the analogue method substantially improves the model consensus through reduction of the interquartile range by a factor of three. The improved inter-model consensus is viewed as a promising step toward providing more actionable climate information. Ultimately - this technique could be applied to the entirety of the U.S. power grid as well as other weather extrema (e.g. precipitation, ice, and wind) as well as assess current and future topologies of any electricity system.

The impact of heat waves on mortality in 9 European cities: results from the EuroHEAT project.

PubMed

D'Ippoliti, Daniela; Michelozzi, Paola; Marino, Claudia; de'Donato, Francesca; Menne, Bettina; Katsouyanni, Klea; Kirchmayer, Ursula; Analitis, Antonis; Medina-Ramón, Mercedes; Paldy, Anna; Atkinson, Richard; Kovats, Sari; Bisanti, Luigi; Schneider, Alexandra; Lefranc, Agnès; Iñiguez, Carmen; Perucci, Carlo A

2010-07-16

The present study aimed at developing a standardized heat wave definition to estimate and compare the impact on mortality by gender, age and death causes in Europe during summers 1990-2004 and 2003, separately, accounting for heat wave duration and intensity. Heat waves were defined considering both maximum apparent temperature and minimum temperature and classified by intensity, duration and timing during summer. The effect was estimated as percent increase in daily mortality during heat wave days compared to non heat wave days in people over 65 years. City specific and pooled estimates by gender, age and cause of death were calculated. The effect of heat waves showed great geographical heterogeneity among cities. Considering all years, except 2003, the increase in mortality during heat wave days ranged from + 7.6% in Munich to + 33.6% in Milan. The increase was up to 3-times greater during episodes of long duration and high intensity. Pooled results showed a greater impact in Mediterranean (+ 21.8% for total mortality) than in North Continental (+ 12.4%) cities. The highest effect was observed for respiratory diseases and among women aged 75-84 years. In 2003 the highest impact was observed in cities where heat wave episode was characterized by unusual meteorological conditions. Climate change scenarios indicate that extreme events are expected to increase in the future even in regions where heat waves are not frequent. Considering our results prevention programs should specifically target the elderly, women and those suffering from chronic respiratory disorders, thus reducing the impact on mortality.

Future changes of temperature and heat waves in Ontario, Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Zhong; Huang, Guohe; Huang, Wendy; Lin, Qianguo; Liao, Renfei; Fan, Yurui

2018-05-01

Apparent changes in the temperature patterns in recent years brought many challenges to the province of Ontario, Canada. As the need for adapting to climate change challenges increases, the development of reliable climate projections becomes a crucial task. In this study, a regional climate modeling system, Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies (PRECIS), is used to simulate the temperature patterns in Ontario. Three PRECIS runs with a resolution of 25 km × 25 km are carried out to simulate the present (1961-1990) temperature variations. There is a good match between the simulated and observed data, which validates the performance of PRECIS in reproducing temperature changes in Ontario. Future changes of daily maximum, mean, and minimum temperatures during the period 2071-2100 are then projected under the IPCC SRES A2 and B2 emission scenarios using PRECIS. Spatial variations of annual mean temperature, mean diurnal range, and temperature seasonality are generated. Furthermore, heat waves defined based on the exceedance of local climatology and their temporal and spatial characteristics are analyzed. The results indicate that the highest temperature and the most intensive heat waves are most likely to occur at the Toronto-Windsor corridor in Southern Ontario. The Northern Ontario, in spite of the relatively low projected temperature, would be under the risk of long-lasting heat waves, and thus needs effective measures to enhance its climate resilience in the future. This study can assist the decision makers in better understanding the future temperature changes in Ontario and provide decision support for mitigating heat-related loss.

Ranking of European Capitals According to the Impact of Future Heat Waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smid, M.; Costa, A. C.; Russo, S.; Pebesma, E. J.; Canut, C. G.

2017-12-01

In warming Europe, we are witnessing a growth in urban population with aging trend, which will make the society more vulnerable to extreme heat waves. In the period 1950-2015 the occurrence of extreme heat waves increased across European capitals. As an example, Moscow was hit by the strongest heat wave of the present era, killing more than ten thousand people. Here we focus on larger metropolitan areas of European capitals. By using observations and an ensemble of eight EURO-CORDEX models under the RCP8.5 scenario, we calculate a suite of temperature based climate indices. We introduce a simple ranking procedure based on ensemble predictions using the mean of metropolitan grid cells for each capital, and population density as a proxy to quantify the future impact. Results show that the selected ensemble provides solid simulation of climate characteristics over most of the targeted metropolitan areas. All the investigated European metropolitan areas will be more vulnerable to extreme heat in the coming decades. Based on the impact ranking, the results reveal that in near, but mainly in distant future, the extreme heat events in European capitals will be not exclusive to traditionally exposed areas such as the Mediterranean and the Iberian Peninsula. The ranking of European capitals based on their vulnerability to the extreme heat could be of paramount importance to the decision makers in order to mitigate the heat related mortality, especially with the foreseen increase of global mean temperature. Acknowledgments: The authors gratefully acknowledge the support of Geoinformatics: Enabling Open Cities (GEO-C), the project funded by the European Commission within the Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions, International Training Networks (ITN), European Joint Doctorates (EJD). Grant Agreement number 642332 — GEO-C — H2020-MSCA-ITN-2014.

The effect of induced heat waves on Pinus taeda and Quercus rubra seedlings in ambient and elevated CO2 atmospheres.

PubMed

Ameye, Maarten; Wertin, Timothy M; Bauweraerts, Ingvar; McGuire, Mary Anne; Teskey, Robert O; Steppe, Kathy

2012-10-01

Here, we investigated the effect of different heat-wave intensities applied at two atmospheric CO2 concentrations ([CO2]) on seedlings of two tree species, loblolly pine (Pinus taeda) and northern red oak (Quercus rubra). Seedlings were assigned to treatment combinations of two levels of [CO2] (380 or 700 μmol mol(-1)) and four levels of air temperature (ambient, ambient +3°C, or 7-d heat waves consisting of a biweekly +6°C heat wave, or a monthly +12°C heat wave). Treatments were maintained throughout the growing season, thus receiving equal heat sums. We measured gas exchange and fluorescence parameters before, during and after a mid-summer heat wave. The +12°C heat wave, significantly reduced net photosynthesis (Anet) in both species and [CO2] treatments but this effect was diminished in elevated [CO2]. The decrease in Anet was accompanied by a decrease in Fv'/Fm' in P. taeda and ΦPSII in Q. rubra. Our findings suggest that, if soil moisture is adequate, trees will experience negative effects in photosynthetic performance only with the occurrence of extreme heat waves. As elevated [CO2] diminished these negative effects, the future climate may not be as detrimental to plant communities as previously assumed. © 2012 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2012 New Phytologist Trust.

Avoided climate impacts of urban and rural heat and cold waves over the U.S. using large climate model ensembles for RCP8.5 and RCP4.5

PubMed Central

Anderson, G.B.; Jones, B.; McGinnis, S.A.; Sanderson, B.

2015-01-01

Previous studies examining future changes in heat/cold waves using climate model ensembles have been limited to grid cell-average quantities. Here, we make use of an urban parameterization in the Community Earth System Model (CESM) that represents the urban heat island effect, which can exacerbate extreme heat but may ameliorate extreme cold in urban relative to rural areas. Heat/cold wave characteristics are derived for U.S. regions from a bias-corrected CESM 30-member ensemble for climate outcomes driven by the RCP8.5 forcing scenario and a 15-member ensemble driven by RCP4.5. Significant differences are found between urban and grid cell-average heat/cold wave characteristics. Most notably, urban heat waves for 1981–2005 are more intense than grid cell-average by 2.1°C (southeast) to 4.6°C (southwest), while cold waves are less intense. We assess the avoided climate impacts of urban heat/cold waves in 2061–2080 when following the lower forcing scenario. Urban heat wave days per year increase from 6 in 1981–2005 to up to 92 (southeast) in RCP8.5. Following RCP4.5 reduces heat wave days by about 50%. Large avoided impacts are demonstrated for individual communities; e.g., the longest heat wave for Houston in RCP4.5 is 38 days while in RCP8.5 there is one heat wave per year that is longer than a month with some lasting the entire summer. Heat waves also start later in the season in RCP4.5 (earliest are in early May) than RCP8.5 (mid-April), compared to 1981–2005 (late May). In some communities, cold wave events decrease from 2 per year for 1981–2005 to one-in-five year events in RCP4.5 and one-in-ten year events in RCP8.5. PMID:29520121

Heat waves and urban heat islands in Europe: A review of relevant drivers.

PubMed

Ward, Kathrin; Lauf, Steffen; Kleinschmit, Birgit; Endlicher, Wilfried

2016-11-01

The climate change and the proceeding urbanization create future health challenges. Consequently, more people around the globe will be impaired by extreme weather events, such as heat waves. This study investigates the causes for the emergence of surface urban heat islands and its change during heat waves in 70 European cities. A newly created climate class indicator, a set of meaningful landscape metrics, and two population-related parameters were applied to describe the Surface Urban Heat Island Magnitude (SUHIM) - the mean temperature increase within the urban heat island compared to its surrounding, as well as the Heat Magnitude (HM) - the extra heat load added to the average summer SUHIM during heat waves. We evaluated the relevance of varying urban parameters within linear models. The exemplary European-wide heat wave in July 2006 was chosen and compared to the average summer conditions using MODIS land surface temperature with an improved spatial resolution of 250m. The results revealed that the initial size of the urban heat island had significant influence on SUHIM. For the explanation of HM the size of the heat island, the regional climate and the share of central urban green spaces showed to be critical. Interestingly, cities of cooler climates and cities with higher shares of urban green spaces were more affected by additional heat during heat waves. Accordingly, cooler northern European cities seem to be more vulnerable to heat waves, whereas southern European cities appear to be better adapted. Within the ascertained population and climate clusters more detailed explanations were found. Our findings improve the understanding of the urban heat island effect across European cities and its behavior under heat waves. Also, they provide some indications for urban planners on case-specific adaptation strategies to adverse urban heat caused by heat waves. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Heat waves imposed during early pod development in soybean (Glycine max) cause significant yield loss despite a rapid recovery from oxidative stress.

PubMed

Siebers, Matthew H; Yendrek, Craig R; Drag, David; Locke, Anna M; Rios Acosta, Lorena; Leakey, Andrew D B; Ainsworth, Elizabeth A; Bernacchi, Carl J; Ort, Donald R

2015-08-01

Heat waves already have a large impact on crops and are predicted to become more intense and more frequent in the future. In this study, heat waves were imposed on soybean using infrared heating technology in a fully open-air field experiment. Five separate heat waves were applied to field-grown soybean (Glycine max) in central Illinois, three in 2010 and two in 2011. Thirty years of historical weather data from Illinois were analyzed to determine the length and intensity of a regionally realistic heat wave resulting in experimental heat wave treatments during which day and night canopy temperatures were elevated 6 °C above ambient for 3 days. Heat waves were applied during early or late reproductive stages to determine whether and when heat waves had an impact on carbon metabolism and seed yield. By the third day of each heat wave, net photosynthesis (A), specific leaf weight (SLW), and leaf total nonstructural carbohydrate concentration (TNC) were decreased, while leaf oxidative stress was increased. However, A, SLW, TNC, and measures of oxidative stress were no different than the control ca. 12 h after the heat waves ended, indicating rapid physiological recovery from the high-temperature stress. That end of season seed yield was reduced (~10%) only when heat waves were applied during early pod developmental stages indicates the yield loss had more to do with direct impacts of the heat waves on reproductive process than on photosynthesis. Soybean was unable to mitigate yield loss after heat waves given during late reproductive stages. This study shows that short high-temperature stress events that reduce photosynthesis and increase oxidative stress resulted in significant losses to soybean production in the Midwest, U.S. The study also suggests that to mitigate heat wave-induced yield loss, soybean needs improved reproductive and photosynthetic tolerance to high but increasingly common temperatures. Published 2015. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Heat waves and warm periods in Slovakia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Faško, Pavel; Bochníček, Oliver; Markovič, Ladislav; Švec, Marek

2016-04-01

The scenarios of climate change caused by human activity show that frequency of occurrence and extent of heat waves in the interior of Europe is increasing. Among the most exposed regions in this regard should the area of southeastern and eastern Austria and south-western Slovakia. The relatively faster increase in the number of heat waves in this area is related also to potential desertification in this region just east of the Alps, since during summer, weather fronts advancing from the west are consequently losing their original features and moderating influence. Summer weather patterns for this area should in the future more closely remind climate typical for some inland areas of southwestern, southern and southeastern Europe. A certain shift of climate zones from south to north should thus modify future climate and Slovakia. Despite the complex natural conditions the existing trends derived from results of meteorological measurements and observations are clear and they confirm warming of climate in this region. Observations and measurements in the recent years of the 21st century confirm, that heat waves are no longer rare phenomenon during summer, but are systematically appearing even in colder regions of northern Slovakia. What is very remarkable and will be necessary to pay more attention to, is the fact that these heat waves are expanding into previously unaffected areas, associated with the lack of rainfall and drought, on larger regional scale. In this study heat wave periods and individual heat events and days are statistically identified in the time series characteristics of air temperature at selected meteorological stations for the period from the mid-20th century until 2015, in case of available historical data even for longer period.

Evaluation of major heat waves' mechanisms in EURO-CORDEX RCMs over Central Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lhotka, Ondřej; Kyselý, Jan; Plavcová, Eva

2018-06-01

The main aim of the study is to evaluate the capability of EURO-CORDEX regional climate models (RCMs) to simulate major heat waves in Central Europe and their associated meteorological factors. Three reference major heat waves (1994, 2006, and 2015) were identified in the E-OBS gridded data set, based on their temperature characteristics, length and spatial extent. Atmospheric circulation, precipitation, net shortwave radiation, and evaporative fraction anomalies during these events were assessed using the ERA-Interim reanalysis. The analogous major heat waves and their links to the aforementioned factors were analysed in an ensemble of EURO-CORDEX RCMs driven by various global climate models in the 1970-2016 period. All three reference major heat waves were associated with favourable circulation conditions, precipitation deficit, reduced evaporative fraction and increased net shortwave radiation. This joint contribution of large-scale circulation and land-atmosphere interactions is simulated with difficulties in majority of the RCMs, which affects the magnitude of modelled major heat waves. In some cases, the seemingly good reproduction of major heat waves' magnitude is erroneously achieved through extremely favourable circulation conditions compensated by a substantial surplus of soil moisture or vice versa. These findings point to different driving mechanisms of major heat waves in some RCMs compared to observations, which should be taken into account when analysing and interpreting future projections of these events.

Estimating and projecting the effect of cold waves on mortality in 209 US cities.

PubMed

Wang, Yan; Shi, Liuhua; Zanobetti, Antonella; Schwartz, Joel D

2016-09-01

The frequency, duration, and intensity of cold waves are expected to decrease in the near future under the changing climate. However, there is a lack of understanding on future mortality related to cold waves. The present study conducted a large-scale national projection to estimate future mortality attributable to cold waves during 1960-2050 in 209 US cities. Cold waves were defined as two, three, or at least four consecutive days with daily temperature lower than the 5th percentile of temperatures in each city. The lingering period of a cold wave was defined as the non-cold wave days within seven days following that cold wave period. First, with 168million residents in 209 US cities during 1962-2006, we fitted over-dispersed Poisson regressions to estimate the immediate and lingering effects of cold waves on mortality and tested if the associations were modified by the duration of cold waves, the intensity of cold waves, and mean winter temperature (MWT). Then we projected future mortality related to cold waves using 20 downscaled climate models. Here we show that the cold waves (both immediate and lingering) were associated with an increased but small risk of mortality. The associations varied substantially across climate regions. The risk increased with the duration and intensity of cold waves but decreased with MWT. The projected mortality related to cold waves would decrease from 1960 to 2050. Such a decrease, however, is small and may not be able to offset the potential increase in heat-related deaths if the adaptation to heat is not adequate. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Heat waves in Africa and India: a multidisciplinary approach.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Janicot, Serge; Moron, Vincent; Oueslati, Boutheina; Pohl, Benjamin; Rome, Sandra; Lalou, Richard; Dos Santos, Stéphanie

2017-04-01

While the heat wave impacts on public health have been widely addressed in developed countries, less effort has been made to detect them and evaluate their impacts in least developed countries, especially in Africa and to a lesser extent in India, where climate is warmer and adaptation capacities are low. Climate and epidemiologic analyses show however that this problem is already present and climate projections indicate that such events should increase in frequency and intensity in the coming decades. However climate models display important temperature and radiative biases over this region, which must be reduced to provide robust information on the future evolution of heat waves. Moreover early warning systems have to face up to institutional malfunctions. This talk lays the elements for a multidisciplinary approach of tackling heat wave occurrences.

Spatiotemporal trends in human vulnerability to the heat across the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheridan, S. C.; Dixon, P. G.

2016-12-01

While human vulnerability to excessive heat has been well documented, relatively few studies have examined long-term trends in vulnerability to heat events. In this research, we examine temporal trends in mortality associated with heat waves, defined using three different definitions of heat wave, for the largest 51 metropolitan areas of the US, over a 36-year period (1975-2010). Regardless of the definition of heat wave, an overall decline in heat vulnerability is seen over the period. While in the first years of the study, 18 to 26 metropolitan areas showed statistically significant increases in mortality on heat wave days, by the final decade of the study period, this had decreased to 6 to 7. Within this narrative, however, examining individual metropolitan areas shows greater variability within the downward trend. Several contributing factors to the variability were observed, including the occurrence of an extreme heat wave affecting the overall heat wave-mortality relationship, and the frequency of heat events over a given period. These broad decreases in heat vulnerability, while encouraging, should be viewed in a cautionary sense. With society aging, there will be a greater number of highly susceptible individuals in the future; further adaptation gains are difficult in many places as air conditioning is now available in most homes in the US. Further, increased use of air conditioning has been associated with a stronger heat island; which, moving forward, is likely to occur alongside a greater number of heat events.

Techniques that Link Extreme Events to the Large Scale, Applied to California Heat Waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grotjahn, R.

2015-12-01

Understanding the mechanisms how Californian Central Valley (CCV) summer extreme hot spells develop is very important since the events have major impacts on the economy and human safety. Results from a series of CCV heat wave studies will be presented, emphasizing the techniques used. Key larger scale elements are identified statistically that are also consistent with synoptic and dynamic understanding of what must be present during extreme heat. Beyond providing a clear synoptic explanation, these key elements have high predictability, in part because soil moisture has little annual variation in the heavily-irrigated CCV. In turn, the predictability naturally leads to an effective tool to assess climate model simulation of these heat waves in historical and future climate scenarios. (Does the model develop extreme heat for the correct reasons?) Further work identified that these large scale elements arise in two quite different ways: one from expansion southwestward of a pre-existing heat wave in southwest Canada, the other formed in place from parcels traversing the North Pacific. The pre-existing heat wave explains an early result showing correlation between heat waves in Sacramento California, and other locations along the US west coast, including distant Seattle Washington. CCV heat waves can be preceded by unusually strong tropical Indian Ocean and Indonesian convection, this partial link may occur through an Asian subtropical jet wave guide. Another link revealed by diagnostics is a middle and higher latitude source of wave activity in Siberia and East Asia that also leads to the development of the CCV heat wave. This talk will address as many of these results and the tools used to obtain them as is reasonable within the available time.

Future Heat Waves In Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eltahir, E. A. B.

2017-12-01

I will review recent work from my group on the impact of climate change on the intensity and frequency of heat waves in Asia. Our studies covered Southwest Asia, South Asia, East China, and the Maritime continent. In any of these regions, the risk associated with climate change impact reflects intensity of natural hazard and level of human vulnerability. Previous work has shown that the wet-bulb temperature is a useful variable to consider in describing the natural hazard from heat waves since it can be easily compared to the natural threshold that defines the upper limit on human survivability. Based on an ensemble of high resolution climate change simulations, we project extremes of wet-bulb temperature conditions in each of these four regions of Asia. We consider the business-as-usual scenario of future greenhouse gas emissions, as well as a moderate mitigation scenario. The results from these regions will be compared and lessons learned summarized.

Projection of heat waves variation over a warming climate in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yue, X.; Wu, S.; Pan, T.

2016-12-01

Heat waves (HW) have adverse impacts on economies, human health, societies and environment, which have been observed around the world and are expected to increase in a warming climate. However, the variations of HW under climate change over China are not clear yet. Using the HadGEM2-ES RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 daily maximum temperature and humidity dataset, variation of heat waves in China for 2021-2050 comparing to 1991-2000 as baseline were analyzed. The CMA-HI (Heat Index standardized by China Meteorological Administration) index was used to calculate the frequency and intensity of head waves. This paper classified the HW into three intensity levels including mild HW, moderate HW and severe HW , and defined a heat wave event (HWE) as that CMA-HI are all above or equal to 2.8 and keep at a intensity level more than five consecutive days. Results show that during 2021to 2050, the distribution area, frequency and duration of each intensity level have an increasing trend over China, and those of severe HW will increase mostly. The distribution area of mild, moderate and severe HW will increase 18%, 22%, 35% respectively. Average HWE frequency of each level will concentrate on 0.5-1instead of 0-0.3 in baseline period. Maximum frequency of each intensity can reach to almost 3 times a year. During 1991-2000, the average frequency of mild HW, moderate HW and severe HW kept a downward sequence. But it will change to increase in the future, and the shift occurs during 2031-2040. In addition, only severe HW duration will increase in the future. Its average value will increase from 9days to 13days, and keep a maximum duration of 42days.While the average duration of mild HW and moderate HW just keep almost 6 days and 8 days as usual. Regionally, both the frequency and duration will keep high value in the region of eastern China, central China, southern China and central Xinjiang autonomous region in the future. And only severe HW has a great change in distribution. Under RCP 8.5 climate scenario, China will suffer much more severe heat waves. The result of prediction of heat waves can give scientific basis to climate change risk management and adaptation strategies.

Added effect of heat wave on mortality in Seoul, Korea.

PubMed

Lee, Won Kyung; Lee, Hye Ah; Lim, Youn Hee; Park, Hyesook

2016-05-01

A heat wave could increase mortality owing to high temperature. However, little is known about the added (duration) effect of heat wave from the prolonged period of high temperature on mortality and different effect sizes depending on the definition of heat waves and models. A distributed lag non-linear model with a quasi-Poisson distribution was used to evaluate the added effect of heat wave on mortality after adjusting for long-term and intra-seasonal trends and apparent temperature. We evaluated the cumulative relative risk of the added wave effect on mortality on lag days 0-30. The models were constructed using nine definitions of heat wave and two relationships (cubic spline and linear threshold model) between temperature and mortality to leave out the high temperature effect. Further, we performed sensitivity analysis to evaluate the changes in the effect of heat wave on mortality according to the different degrees of freedom for time trend and cubic spline of temperature. We found that heat wave had the added effect from the prolonged period of high temperature on mortality and it was considerable in the aspect of cumulative risk because of the lagged influence. When heat wave was defined with a threshold of 98th percentile temperature and ≥2, 3, and 4 consecutive days, mortality increased by 14.8 % (7.5-22.6, 95 % confidence interval (CI)), 18.1 % (10.8-26.0, 95 % CI), 18.1 % (10.7-25.9, 95 % CI), respectively, in cubic spline model. When it came to the definitions of 90th and 95th percentile, the risk increase in mortality declined to 3.7-5.8 % and 8.6-11.3 %, respectively. This effect was robust to the flexibility of the model for temperature and time trend, while the definitions of a heat wave were critical in estimating its relationship with mortality. This finding could help deepen our understanding and quantifying of the relationship between heat wave and mortality and select an appropriate definition of heat wave and temperature model in the future studies.

Extreme Temperatures over India in the 1.5°C and 2°C warmer worlds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thanigachalam, A.; Achutarao, K. M.

2017-12-01

n the summer of 2015 a heat wave claimed more than 2500 lives of southeastern India. Wehner et al., (2016) showed that the risk of this heat wave has increased due to anthropogenic forcings. Under the RCP 8.5 scenario, surface temperature over India shows a rate of increase of about 0.2°C/decade during the 21st Century (Basha et al., 2017). The extreme temperatures that have occurred in the recent past and further increases projected for the future have implications for human health and productivity. In light of the Paris accords, future stabilization of global mean temperature at the 1.5°C above pre-industrial aspirational target and the "not to be exceeded" 2°C target (still higher than current temperatures), the possibility of increases in extreme temperatures under these scenarios is very real. In this study we seek to understand the nature of extreme temperatures over India in the 1.5°C and 2°C worlds in comparison to the current climate. We make use of model output contributed under the Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts project (HAPPI; Mitchell et al., 2017). The HAPPI database contains output from many atmospheric GCMs with multiple simulations ( 100 each) of historical (2005-2015), 1.5°C warmer decade, and 2°C warmer decade. The large number of ensembles provides an opportunity to study the extremes in temperature that occur over India and how they may change. In order to provide insights into the future comparable against current operational practices, we make use of definitions of "hot days", "heat waves", and "severe heat waves" used by the India Meteorological Department (IMD). We compare modelled data (and bias corrected model output where available) against observed daily temperatures from the IMD gridded (1°x1°) dataset available for 1951-2015 as also circulation features that lead to such events by comparing against reanalysis products. We also investigate the timing of such events in the future scenarios. Preliminary findings indicate that future heat waves, and severe heat waves are expected to become more frequent and arrive earlier in some regions. References Basha, G., et al., (2017), Nature Scientific Reports, 7, 2987. Mitchell, D., et al., (2017), HAPPI:,Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 571-583. Wehner, M. F., et al.,: (2016), Bull. Amer. Met. Soc., 97, S81-S86.

A technique to measure the thermal diffusivity of high Tc superconductors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Powers, Charles E.

1991-01-01

High T(sub c) superconducting electrical current leads and ground straps will be used in cryogenic coolers in future NASA Goddard Space Flight Center missions. These superconducting samples are long, thin leads with a typical diameter of two millimeters. A longitudinal method is developed to measure the thermal diffusivity of candidate materials for this application. This technique uses a peltier junction to supply an oscillatory heat wave into one end of a sample and will use low mass thermocouples to follow the heat wave along the sample. The thermal diffusivity is calculated using both the exponential decay of the heat wave and the phase shift to the wave. Measurements are performed in a cryostat between 10 K and room temperature.

The 2006 California Heat Wave: Impacts on Hospitalizations and Emergency Department Visits

PubMed Central

Knowlton, Kim; Rotkin-Ellman, Miriam; King, Galatea; Margolis, Helene G.; Smith, Daniel; Solomon, Gina; Trent, Roger; English, Paul

2009-01-01

Background Climate models project that heat waves will increase in frequency and severity. Despite many studies of mortality from heat waves, few studies have examined morbidity. Objectives In this study we investigated whether any age or race/ethnicity groups experienced increased hospitalizations and emergency department (ED) visits overall or for selected illnesses during the 2006 California heat wave. Methods We aggregated county-level hospitalizations and ED visits for all causes and for 10 cause groups into six geographic regions of California. We calculated excess morbidity and rate ratios (RRs) during the heat wave (15 July to 1 August 2006) and compared these data with those of a reference period (8–14 July and 12–22 August 2006). Results During the heat wave, 16,166 excess ED visits and 1,182 excess hospitalizations occurred statewide. ED visits for heat-related causes increased across the state [RR = 6.30; 95% confidence interval (CI), 5.67–7.01], especially in the Central Coast region, which includes San Francisco. Children (0–4 years of age) and the elderly (≥ 65 years of age) were at greatest risk. ED visits also showed significant increases for acute renal failure, cardiovascular diseases, diabetes, electrolyte imbalance, and nephritis. We observed significantly elevated RRs for hospitalizations for heat-related illnesses (RR = 10.15; 95% CI, 7.79–13.43), acute renal failure, electrolyte imbalance, and nephritis. Conclusions The 2006 California heat wave had a substantial effect on morbidity, including regions with relatively modest temperatures. This suggests that population acclimatization and adaptive capacity influenced risk. By better understanding these impacts and population vulnerabilities, local communities can improve heat wave preparedness to cope with a globally warming future. PMID:19165388

Dependence of present and future European heat waves and cold spells on the location of atmospheric blocking

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brunner, L.; Schaller, N.; Sillmann, J.; Steiner, A. K.

2017-12-01

Atmospheric blocking describes stationary anti-cyclones, which weaken or reverse the climatological flow at mid-latitudes. In the northern hemisphere one of the main blocking regions is located over the North Atlantic and Northern Europe. The link between blocking and European temperature extremes, such as heat waves and cold spells, strongly depends on several aspects like season, longitudinal location of the block, and location of the extremes (particularly Northern Europe versus Southern Europe). We use a 50-member ensemble of the Canadian CanESM2 model to investigate historical (1981-2010) and future (2070-2099) blocking cases and their relationship with European temperature extremes. For the historical period the model results are also compared to those from the ERA-Interim reanalysis. Atmospheric blocking is detected on a daily basis in different 30° longitude windows between 60°W and 60°E, using a standard geopotential height-based detection index. Temperature extremes are defined by the daily Heat/Cold Wave Magnitude Index (HWMId/CWMId). The role of cold advection is found particularly important in winter conditions leading to a more than threefold increase in cold wave occurrence during blocking between 60°W and 0°. During blocking over Northern Europe (0° to 60°E) a split relationship is found with cold wave occurrence being strongly increased in Southern Europe, while it is decreased in Northern Europe. Direct, radiative effects dominate in summer, therefore blocking westward of Europe has a weaker effect, while blocking over Northern Europe leads to an increase of heat waves by at least a factor three at the location of the block and a decrease in cold wave occurrence in almost all of Europe. Comparing the historical and future period we find the link between blocking and temperature extremes in Europe to be robust, even though blocking frequency and temperatures are changing.

Future heat waves due to climate change threaten the survival of Posidonia oceanica seedlings.

PubMed

Guerrero-Meseguer, Laura; Marín, Arnaldo; Sanz-Lázaro, Carlos

2017-11-01

Extreme weather events are major drivers of ecological change, and their occurrence is likely to increase due to climate change. The transient increases in atmospheric temperatures are leading to a greater occurrence of heat waves, extreme events that can produce a substantial warming of water, especially in enclosed basins such as the Mediterranean Sea. Here, we tested the effects of current and predicted heat waves on the early stages of development of the seagrass Posidonia oceanica. Temperatures above 27 °C limited the growth of the plant by inhibiting its photosynthetic system. It suffered a reduction in leaf growth and faster leaf senescence, and in some cases mortality. This study demonstrates that the greater frequency of heat waves, along with anticipated temperature rises in coming decades, are expected to negatively affect the germination of P. oceanica seedlings. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modifications of the urban heat island characteristics under exceptionally hot weather - A case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Founda, Dimitra; Pierros, Fragiskos; Santamouris, Mathew

2016-04-01

Considerable recent research suggests that heat waves are becoming more frequent, more intense and longer in the future. Heat waves are characterised by the dominance of prolonged abnormally hot conditions related to synoptic scale anomalies, thus they affect extensive geographical areas. Heat waves (HW) have a profound impact on humans and they have been proven to increase mortality. Urban areas are known to be hotter than the surrounding rural areas due to the well documented urban heat island (UHI) phenomenon. Urban areas face increased risk under heat waves, due to the added heat from the urban heat island and increased population density. Given that urban populations keep increasing, citizens are exposed to significant heat related risk. Mitigation and adaptation strategies require a deep understanding of the response of the urban heat islands under extremely hot conditions. The response of the urban heat island under selected episodes of heat waves is examined in the city of Athens, from the comparison between stations of different characteristics (urban, suburban, coastal and rural). Two distinct episodes of heat waves occurring during summer 2000 were selected. Daily maximum air temperature at the urban station of the National Observatory of Athens (NOA) exceeded 40 0C for at least three consecutive days for both episodes. The intensity of UHI during heat waves was compared to the intensity under 'normal' conditions, represented from a period 'before' and 'after' the heat wave. Striking differences of UHI features between HW and no HW cases were observed, depending on the time of the day and the type of station. The comparison between the urban and the coastal station showed an increase of the order of 3 0C in the intensity of UHI during the HW days, as regards both daytime and nighttime conditions. The comparison between urban and a suburban (inland) station, revealed some different behaviour during HWs, with increases of the order of 3 0C in the nocturnal UHI intensity under HW, but decrease in the daily UHI. The findings were confirmed qualitatively and quantitatively from other two severe episodes of heat waves, occurring during summer 2007.

The 1994 heat wave in South Korea: mortality impacts and recurrence probability in a changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kysely, J.; Kim, J.

2010-03-01

The study deals with mortality impacts of the July-August 1994 heat wave in the population of South Korea, including the megacity of Seoul (with the population exceeding 10 million for the city and 20 million for the metropolitan area), and estimates recurrence probability of the heat wave in a changing climate in terms of simulations of daily temperature series with a stochastic model. The 1994 heat wave is found exceptional with respect to both climatological characteristics and the mortality effects: significantly elevated mortality occurred in all population groups, including children up to 14 years of age, and the total death toll exceeded 3000 in the Korean population, which ranks the 1994 heat wave among the worst weather-related disasters in East Asia. The estimate represents net excess mortality as no mortality displacement effect appeared. A comparison with other documented natural disasters shows that the death toll of the heat wave was much higher than those of the most disastrous floodings and typhoons over Korean Peninsula in the 20th century. The mortality response was stronger in males than females although males are found to be less vulnerable during average heat waves. A climatological analysis reveals that the July-August 1994 heat wave might be considered an extremely rare event with a return period in the order of hundreds of years if stationarity of temperature time series is assumed. However, under a more realistic assumption of gradual warming related to climate change, recurrence probability of an event analogous to the 1994 heat wave sharply rises for near-future time horizons. If warming of 0.04°C/year is assumed over 2001-2060, the recurrence interval of a very long spell of days with temperature exceeding a high threshold (as in the 1994 heat wave) is estimated to decrease to around 40 (10) years in the 2021-2030 (2041-2050) decade. This emphasizes the need for setting up an efficient heat-watch-warning system in this area in order to reduce human mortality impacts of heat waves.

A Bayesian model averaging approach for estimating the relative risk of mortality associated with heat waves in 105 U.S. cities.

PubMed

Bobb, Jennifer F; Dominici, Francesca; Peng, Roger D

2011-12-01

Estimating the risks heat waves pose to human health is a critical part of assessing the future impact of climate change. In this article, we propose a flexible class of time series models to estimate the relative risk of mortality associated with heat waves and conduct Bayesian model averaging (BMA) to account for the multiplicity of potential models. Applying these methods to data from 105 U.S. cities for the period 1987-2005, we identify those cities having a high posterior probability of increased mortality risk during heat waves, examine the heterogeneity of the posterior distributions of mortality risk across cities, assess sensitivity of the results to the selection of prior distributions, and compare our BMA results to a model selection approach. Our results show that no single model best predicts risk across the majority of cities, and that for some cities heat-wave risk estimation is sensitive to model choice. Although model averaging leads to posterior distributions with increased variance as compared to statistical inference conditional on a model obtained through model selection, we find that the posterior mean of heat wave mortality risk is robust to accounting for model uncertainty over a broad class of models. © 2011, The International Biometric Society.

Impacts of leaf age and heat stress duration on photosynthetic gas exchange and foliar nonstructural carbohydrates in Coffea arabica

Treesearch

Danielle E. Marias; Frederick C. Meinzer; Christopher Still

2017-01-01

Given future climate predictions of increased temperature, and frequency and intensity of heat waves in the tropics, suitable habitat to grow ecologically, economically, and socially valuable Coffea arabica is severely threatened. We investigated how leaf age and heat stress duration impact recovery from heat stress in C. arabica...

Future heat stress arising from climate change on Iran's population health.

PubMed

Modarres, Reza; Ghadami, Mohammad; Naderi, Sohrab; Naderi, Mohammad

2018-04-05

Climate change-induced extreme heat events are becoming a major issue in different parts of the world, especially in developing countries. The assessment of regional and temporal past and future change in heat waves is a crucial task for public health strategies and managements. The historical and future heat index (HI) time series are investigated for temporal change across Iran to study the impact of global warming on public health. The heat index is calculated, and the nonparametric trend assessment is carried out for historical time series (1981-2010). The future change in heat index is also projected for 2020-2049 and 2070-2099 periods. A rise in the historical heat index and extreme caution conditions for summer and spring seasons for major parts of Iran are notable for historical (1981-2010) series in this study. Using different climate change scenarios shows that heat index will exceed the critical threshold for human adaptability in the future in the country. The impact of climate change on heat index risk in Iran is significant in the future. To cope with this crucial situation, developing early warning systems and health care strategies to deal with population growth and remarkable socio-economic features in future is essential.

Future heat stress arising from climate change on Iran's population health

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Modarres, Reza; Ghadami, Mohammad; Naderi, Sohrab; Naderi, Mohammad

2018-04-01

Climate change-induced extreme heat events are becoming a major issue in different parts of the world, especially in developing countries. The assessment of regional and temporal past and future change in heat waves is a crucial task for public health strategies and managements. The historical and future heat index (HI) time series are investigated for temporal change across Iran to study the impact of global warming on public health. The heat index is calculated, and the nonparametric trend assessment is carried out for historical time series (1981-2010). The future change in heat index is also projected for 2020-2049 and 2070-2099 periods. A rise in the historical heat index and extreme caution conditions for summer and spring seasons for major parts of Iran are notable for historical (1981-2010) series in this study. Using different climate change scenarios shows that heat index will exceed the critical threshold for human adaptability in the future in the country. The impact of climate change on heat index risk in Iran is significant in the future. To cope with this crucial situation, developing early warning systems and health care strategies to deal with population growth and remarkable socio-economic features in future is essential.

Changes in Pacific Northwest Heat Waves and Associated Synoptic/Mesoscale Drivers Under Anthropogenic Global Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brewer, M.; Mass, C.

2014-12-01

Though western Oregon and Washington summers are typically mild due to the influence of the nearby Pacific Ocean, this region occasionally experiences heat waves with temperatures in excess of 35ºC. These heat waves can have a substantial impact on this highly populated region, particularly since the population is unaccustomed to and generally unprepared for such conditions. A comprehensive evaluation is needed of past and future heat wave trends in frequency, intensity, and duration. Furthermore, it is important to understand the physical mechanisms of Northwest heat waves and how such mechanisms might change under anthropogenic global warming. Lower-tropospheric heat waves over the west coast of North America are the result of both synoptic and mesoscale factors, the latter requiring high-resolution models (roughly 12-15 km grid spacing) to simulate. Synoptic factors include large-scale warming due to horizontal advection and subsidence, as well as reductions in large-scale cloudiness. An important mesoscale factor is the occurrence of offshore (easterly) flow, resulting in an adiabatically warmed continental air mass spreading over the western lowlands rather than the more usual cool, marine air influence. To fully understand how heat waves will change under AGW, it is necessary to determine the combined impacts of both synoptic and mesoscale effects in a warming world. General Circulation Models (GCM) are generally are too coarse to simulate mesoscale effects realistically and thus may provide unreliable estimates of the frequency and magnitudes of West Coast heat waves. Therefore, to determine the regional implications of global warming, this work made use of long-term, high-resolution WRF simulations, at 36- and 12-km resolution, produced by dynamically downscaling GCM grids. This talk will examine the predicted trends in Pacific Northwest heat wave intensity, duration, and frequency during the 21st century (through 2100). The spatial distribution in the trends in heat waves, and the variability of these trends at different resolutions and among different models will also be described. Finally, changes in the synoptic and mesoscale configurations that drive Pacific Northwest heat waves and the modulating effects of local terrain and land/water contrast will be discussed.

Solar assisted heat pumps: A possible wave of the future

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smetana, F. O.

1976-01-01

With the higher costs of electric power and the widespread interest to use solar energy to reduce the national dependence on fossil fuels, heat pumps are examined to determine their suitability for use with solar energy systems.

Elevated CO2 maintains grassland net carbon uptake under a future heat and drought extreme

PubMed Central

Roy, Jacques; Picon-Cochard, Catherine; Augusti, Angela; Benot, Marie-Lise; Thiery, Lionel; Darsonville, Olivier; Landais, Damien; Piel, Clément; Defossez, Marc; Devidal, Sébastien; Escape, Christophe; Ravel, Olivier; Fromin, Nathalie; Volaire, Florence; Milcu, Alexandru; Bahn, Michael; Soussana, Jean-François

2016-01-01

Extreme climatic events (ECEs) such as droughts and heat waves are predicted to increase in intensity and frequency and impact the terrestrial carbon balance. However, we lack direct experimental evidence of how the net carbon uptake of ecosystems is affected by ECEs under future elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations (eCO2). Taking advantage of an advanced controlled environment facility for ecosystem research (Ecotron), we simulated eCO2 and extreme cooccurring heat and drought events as projected for the 2050s and analyzed their effects on the ecosystem-level carbon and water fluxes in a C3 grassland. Our results indicate that eCO2 not only slows down the decline of ecosystem carbon uptake during the ECE but also enhances its recovery after the ECE, as mediated by increases of root growth and plant nitrogen uptake induced by the ECE. These findings indicate that, in the predicted near future climate, eCO2 could mitigate the effects of extreme droughts and heat waves on ecosystem net carbon uptake. PMID:27185934

Plasma and wave properties downstream of Martian bow shock: Hybrid simulations and MAVEN observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dong, Chuanfei; Winske, Dan; Cowee, Misa; Bougher, Stephen W.; Andersson, Laila; Connerney, Jack; Epley, Jared; Ergun, Robert; McFadden, James P.; Ma, Yingjuan; Toth, Gabor; Curry, Shannon; Nagy, Andrew; Jakosky, Bruce

2015-04-01

Two-dimensional hybrid simulation codes are employed to investigate the kinetic properties of plasmas and waves downstream of the Martian bow shock. The simulations are two-dimensional in space but three dimensional in field and velocity components. Simulations show that ion cyclotron waves are generated by temperature anisotropy resulting from the reflected protons around the Martian bow shock. These proton cyclotron waves could propagate downward into the Martian ionosphere and are expected to heat the O+ layer peaked from 250 to 300 km due to the wave-particle interaction. The proton cyclotron wave heating is anticipated to be a significant source of energy into the thermosphere, which impacts atmospheric escape rates. The simulation results show that the specific dayside heating altitude depends on the Martian crustal field orientations, solar cycles and seasonal variations since both the cyclotron resonance condition and the non/sub-resonant stochastic heating threshold depend on the ambient magnetic field strength. The dayside magnetic field profiles for different crustal field orientation, solar cycle and seasonal variations are adopted from the BATS-R-US Mars multi-fluid MHD model. The simulation results, however, show that the heating of O+ via proton cyclotron wave resonant interaction is not likely in the relatively weak crustal field region, based on our simplified model. This indicates that either the drift motion resulted from the transport of ionospheric O+, or the non/sub-resonant stochastic heating mechanism are important to explain the heating of Martian O+ layer. We will investigate this further by comparing the simulation results with the available MAVEN data. These simulated ion cyclotron waves are important to explain the heating of Martian O+ layer and have significant implications for future observations.

Warm vegetarians? Heat waves and diet shifts in tadpoles.

PubMed

Carreira, B M; Segurado, P; Orizaola, G; Gonçalves, N; Pinto, V; Laurila, A; Rebelo, R

2016-11-01

Temperature can play an important role in determining the feeding preferences of ectotherms. In light of the warmer temperatures arising with the current climatic changes, omnivorous ectotherms may perform diet shifts toward higher herbivory to optimize energetic intake. Such diet shifts may also occur during heat waves, which are projected to become more frequent, intense, and longer lasting in the future. Here, we investigated how heat waves of different duration affect feeding preferences in omnivorous anuran tadpoles and how these choices affect larval life history. In laboratory experiments, we fed tadpoles of three species on animal, plant, or mixed diet and exposed them to short heat waves (similar to the heat waves these species experience currently) or long heat waves (predicted to increase under climate change). We estimated the dietary choices of tadpoles fed on the mixed diet using stable isotopes and recorded tadpole survival and growth, larval period, and mass at metamorphosis. Tadpole feeding preferences were associated with their thermal background, with herbivory increasing with breeding temperature in nature. Patterns in survival, growth, and development generally support decreased efficiency of carnivorous diets and increased efficiency or higher relative quality of herbivorous diets at higher temperatures. All three species increased herbivory in at least one of the heat wave treatments, but the responses varied among species. Diet shifts toward higher herbivory were maladaptive in one species, but beneficial in the other two. Higher herbivory in omnivorous ectotherms under warmer temperatures may impact species differently and further contribute to changes in the structure and function of freshwater environments. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Impacts of climate extremes on gross primary production under global warming

DOE PAGES

Williams, I. N.; Torn, M. S.; Riley, W. J.; ...

2014-09-24

The impacts of historical droughts and heat-waves on ecosystems are often considered indicative of future global warming impacts, under the assumption that water stress sets in above a fixed high temperature threshold. Historical and future (RCP8.5) Earth system model (ESM) climate projections were analyzed in this study to illustrate changes in the temperatures for onset of water stress under global warming. The ESMs examined here predict sharp declines in gross primary production (GPP) at warm temperature extremes in historical climates, similar to the observed correlations between GPP and temperature during historical heat-waves and droughts. However, soil moisture increases at themore » warm end of the temperature range, and the temperature at which soil moisture declines with temperature shifts to a higher temperature. The temperature for onset of water stress thus increases under global warming and is associated with a shift in the temperature for maximum GPP to warmer temperatures. Despite the shift in this local temperature optimum, the impacts of warm extremes on GPP are approximately invariant when extremes are defined relative to the optimal temperature within each climate period. The GPP sensitivity to these relative temperature extremes therefore remains similar between future and present climates, suggesting that the heat- and drought-induced GPP reductions seen recently can be expected to be similar in the future, and may be underestimates of future impacts given model projections of increased frequency and persistence of heat-waves and droughts. The local temperature optimum can be understood as the temperature at which the combination of water stress and light limitations is minimized, and this concept gives insights into how GPP responds to climate extremes in both historical and future climate periods. Both cold (temperature and light-limited) and warm (water-limited) relative temperature extremes become more persistent in future climate projections, and the time taken to return to locally optimal climates for GPP following climate extremes increases by more than 25% over many land regions.« less

Impacts of climate extremes on gross primary production under global warming

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Williams, I. N.; Torn, M. S.; Riley, W. J.

The impacts of historical droughts and heat-waves on ecosystems are often considered indicative of future global warming impacts, under the assumption that water stress sets in above a fixed high temperature threshold. Historical and future (RCP8.5) Earth system model (ESM) climate projections were analyzed in this study to illustrate changes in the temperatures for onset of water stress under global warming. The ESMs examined here predict sharp declines in gross primary production (GPP) at warm temperature extremes in historical climates, similar to the observed correlations between GPP and temperature during historical heat-waves and droughts. However, soil moisture increases at themore » warm end of the temperature range, and the temperature at which soil moisture declines with temperature shifts to a higher temperature. The temperature for onset of water stress thus increases under global warming and is associated with a shift in the temperature for maximum GPP to warmer temperatures. Despite the shift in this local temperature optimum, the impacts of warm extremes on GPP are approximately invariant when extremes are defined relative to the optimal temperature within each climate period. The GPP sensitivity to these relative temperature extremes therefore remains similar between future and present climates, suggesting that the heat- and drought-induced GPP reductions seen recently can be expected to be similar in the future, and may be underestimates of future impacts given model projections of increased frequency and persistence of heat-waves and droughts. The local temperature optimum can be understood as the temperature at which the combination of water stress and light limitations is minimized, and this concept gives insights into how GPP responds to climate extremes in both historical and future climate periods. Both cold (temperature and light-limited) and warm (water-limited) relative temperature extremes become more persistent in future climate projections, and the time taken to return to locally optimal climates for GPP following climate extremes increases by more than 25% over many land regions.« less

Analysis of heat wave occurrences in the Carpathian basin using regional climate model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bartha, E. B.; Pongracz, R.; Bartholy, J.

2012-04-01

Human health is very likely affected by regional consequences of global warming. One of the most severe impacts is probably associated to temperature-related climatological extremes, such as heat waves. In the coming decades hot conditions in most regions of the world are very likely to occur more frequently and more intensely than in the recent decades. In order to develop adaptation and mitigation strategies on local scale, it is essential to analyze the projected changes related to warming climatic conditions including heat waves. In 2004, a Heat Health Watch Warning System was developed in Hungary on the basis of a retrospective analysis of mortality and meteorological data to anticipate heat waves that may result in a large excess of mortality. In the frame of this recently introduced Health Watch System, three levels of heat wave warning are applied. They are associated to the daily mean temperature values, and defined as follows: - Warning level 1 (advisory for internal use) is issued when the daily mean temperature exceeds 25 °C. - Warning level 2 (heat wave watch) is issued when the daily mean temperature for at least 3 consecutive days exceeds 25 °C. - Warning level 3 (heat wave alert) is issued when the daily mean temperature for at least 3 consecutive days exceeds 27 °C. In the present study, frequency of the above climatic conditions are analyzed using regional climate model (RCM) experiments are analyzed for the recent past and the coming decades (1961-2100) for the Carpathian basin. At the Dept. of Meteorology, Eotvos Lorand University two different RCMs have been adapted: RegCM (with 10 km horizontal resolution, originally developed by Giorgi et al., currently, available from the International Centre for Theoretical Physics, ICTP) and PRECIS (with 25 km horizontal resolution, developed at the UK Met Office, Hadley Centre). Their initial and lateral boundary conditions have been provided by global climate models ECHAM and HadCM3, respectively. For both RCMs A1B emission scenario was used. The climatic conditions of 1961-1990 (as a reference), and 2021-2050, 2071-2100 future periods are evaluated using bias corrected daily mean temperature outputs of both RegCM and PRECIS. Based on the results the following main conclusions can be drawn: (i) Heat waves are very likely to occur more frequently in the 21st century than in the reference period, 1961-1990. (ii) By the end of the 21st century heat warning level 3 is projected to occur with similar frequency as the heat warning level 1 in the reference period. (iii) By the end of the 21st century the average first occurrence of the heat warning days is simulated to shift earlier, and the average last occurrence later, than in the reference period - thus the length of the heat wave season is projected to become remarkably larger. (iv) For each time slices (both reference and future periods), PRECIS simulations suggest a more often occurrence of heat warning cases in the Carpathian basin than the RegCM experiments.

A spatial analysis of heat stress related emergency room visits in rural Southern Ontario during heat waves.

PubMed

Bishop-Williams, Katherine E; Berke, Olaf; Pearl, David L; Kelton, David F

2015-08-06

In Southern Ontario, climate change may have given rise to an increasing occurrence of heat waves since the year 2000, which can cause heat stress to the general public, and potentially have detrimental health consequences. Heat waves are defined as three consecutive days with temperatures of 32 °C and above. Heat stress is the level of discomfort. A variety of heat stress indices have been proposed to measure heat stress (e.g., the heat stress index (HSI)), and has been shown to predict increases in morbidity and/or mortality rates in humans and other species. Maps visualizing the distribution of heat stress can provide information about related health risks and insight for control strategies. Information to inform heat wave preparedness models in Ontario was previously only available for major metropolitan areas. Hospitals in communities of fewer than 100,000 individuals were recruited for a pilot study by telephone. The number of people visiting the emergency room or 24-hour urgent care service was collected for a total of 27 days, covering three heat waves and six 3-day control periods from 2010-2012. The heat stress index was spatially predicted using data from 37 weather stations across Southern Ontario by geostatistical kriging. Poisson regression modeling was applied to determine the rate of increased number of emergency room visits in rural hospitals with respect to the HSI. During a heat wave, the average rate of emergency room visits was 1.11 times higher than during a control period (IRR = 1.11, CI95% (IRR) = (1.07,1.15), p ≤ 0.001). In a univariable model, HSI was not a significant predictor of emergency room visits, but when accounting for the confounding effect of a spatial trend polynomial in the hospital location coordinates, a one unit increase in HSI predicted an increase in daily emergency rooms visits by 0.4% (IRR = 1.004, CI95%(IRR) = (1.0005,1.007), p = 0.024) across the region. One high-risk cluster and no low risk clusters were identified in the southwestern portion of the study area by the spatial scan statistic during heat waves. The high-risk cluster is located in a region with high levels of heat stress during heat waves. This finding will aid hospitals and rural public health units in preventing and preparing for emergencies of foreseeable heat waves. Future research is needed to assess the relation between heat stress and individual characteristics and demographics of rural communities in Ontario.

Recent advances in physics and technology of ion cyclotron resonance heating in view of future fusion reactors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ongena, J.; Messiaen, A.; Kazakov, Ye O.; Koch, R.; Ragona, R.; Bobkov, V.; Crombé, K.; Durodié, F.; Goniche, M.; Krivska, A.; Lerche, E.; Louche, F.; Lyssoivan, A.; Vervier, M.; Van Eester, D.; Van Schoor, M.; Wauters, T.; Wright, J.; Wukitch, S.

2017-05-01

Ion temperatures of over 100 million degrees need to be reached in future fusion reactors for the deuterium-tritium fusion reaction to work. Ion cyclotron resonance heating (ICRH) is a method that has the capability to directly heat ions to such high temperatures, via a resonant interaction between the plasma ions and radiofrequency waves launched in the plasma. This paper gives an overview of recent developments in this field. In particular a novel and recently developed three-ion heating scenario will be highlighted. It is a flexible scheme with the potential to accelerate heavy ions to high energies in high density plasmas as expected for future fusion reactors. New antenna designs will be needed for next step large future devices like DEMO, to deliver steady-state high power levels, cope with fast variations in coupling due to fast changes in the edge density and to reduce the possibility for impurity production. Such a new design is the traveling wave antenna (TWA) consisting of an array of straps distributed around the circumference of the machine, which is intrinsically resilient to edge density variations and has an optimized power coupling to the plasma. The structure of the paper is as follows: to provide the general reader with a basis for a good understanding of the later sections, an overview is given of wave propagation, coupling and RF power absorption in the ion cyclotron range of frequencies, including a brief summary of the traditionally used heating scenarios. A special highlight is the newly developed three-ion scenario together with its promising applications. A next section discusses recent developments to study edge-wave interaction and reduce impurity influx from ICRH: the dedicated devices IShTAR and Aline, field aligned and three-strap antenna concepts. The principles behind and the use of ICRH as an important option for first wall conditioning in devices with a permanent magnetic field is discussed next. The final section presents ongoing developments for antenna systems in next step devices like ITER and DEMO, with as highlight the TWA concept.

High power fast wave experiments in LAPD: interaction with density fluctuations and status/plans for ICRH

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carter, Troy; Martin, Michael; van Compernolle, Bart; Gekelman, Walter; Pribyl, Pat; Vincena, Stephen; Tripathi, Shreekrishna; van Eester, Dirk; Crombe, Kristel

2016-10-01

The LArge Plasma Device (LAPD) at UCLA is a 17 m long, up to 60 cm diameter magnetized plasma column with typical plasma parameters ne 1012 -1013 cm-3, Te 1 - 10 eV, and B 1 kG. A new high-power ( 200 kW) RF system and antenna has been developed for LAPD, enabling the generation of large amplitude fast waves in LAPD. Interaction between the fast waves and density fluctuations is observed, resulting in modulation of the coupled RF power. Two classes of RF-induced density fluctuations are observed. First, a coherent (10 kHz) oscillation is observed spatially near the antenna in response to the initial RF turn-on transient. Second, broadband density fluctuations are enhanced when the RF power is above a threshold a threshold. Strong modulation of the fast wave magnetic fluctuations is observed along with broadening of the primary RF spectral line. Ultimately, high power fast waves will be used for ion heating in LAPD through minority species fundamental heating or second harmonic minority or majority heating. Initial experimental results from heating experiments will be presented along with a discussion of future plans. BaPSF supported by NSF and DOE.

Rayleigh surface acoustic wave as an efficient heating system for biological reactions: investigation of microdroplet temperature uniformity.

PubMed

Roux-Marchand, Thibaut; Beyssen, Denis; Sarry, Frederic; Elmazria, Omar

2015-04-01

When a microdroplet is put on the Rayleigh surface acoustic wave path, longitudinal waves are radiated into the liquid and induce several phenomena such as the wellknown surface acoustic wave streaming. At the same time, the temperature of the microdroplet increases as it has been shown. In this paper, we study the temperature uniformity of a microdroplet heated by Rayleigh surface acoustic wave for discrete microfluidic applications such as biological reactions. To precisely ascertain the temperature uniformity and not interfere with the biological reaction, we used an infrared camera. We then tested the temperature uniformity as a function of three parameters: the microdroplet volume, the Rayleigh surface acoustic wave frequency, and the continuous applied radio frequency power. Based on these results, we propose a new device structure to develop a future lab on a chip based on reaction temperatures.

Factors of subjective heat stress of urban citizens in contexts of everyday life

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kunz-Plapp, Tina; Hackenbruch, Julia; Schipper, Janus Willem

2016-04-01

Heat waves and the consequent heat stress of urban populations have a growing relevance in urban risk management and strategies of urban adaptation to climate change. In this context, social science studies on subjective experiencing of heat as stress by urban citizens are a new emerging field. To contribute to the understanding of self-reported subjective heat stress and its major determinants in a daily life perspective, we conducted a questionnaire survey with 323 respondents in Karlsruhe, Germany, after heat waves in July and August 2013. Statistical data analysis showed that subjective heat stress is an issue permeating everyday activities. Subjective heat stress at home was lower than at work and in general. Subjective heat stress in general, at home, and at work was determined by the health impairments experienced during the heat and the feeling of being helplessly exposed to the heat. For subjective heat stress at home, characteristics of the residential building and the built environment additionally played a role. Although the rate of implemented coping measures was rather high, coping measures showed no uniform effect for the subjective heat stress. We conclude that in terms of urban adaptation strategies, further research is needed to understand how various processes of daily social (work) life enable or limit individual coping and that communication strategies are important for building capacities to better cope with future heat waves.

Human contribution to the United States extreme heatwaves in the coming decades

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Russo, E.; Marchese, A. F.; Immè, G.; Russo, S.

2015-12-01

In the past decades many intense and long heatwaves have hit large areas across the United States producing notable impacts on human mortality,regional economies, and natural ecosystems.Evidence indicates that anthropogenic climate change will alter the magnitude and frequency of these events. Here, by means of the Heat Wave Magnitude Index daily (HWMId) applied to daily maximum temperature from the United States reanalysis dataset (NLDAS-2), we grade the heat waves occurred in the U.S. since 1980, demonstrating that the two worst events within the studied period occurred in the summer of 1980 and 2011. Moreover, by referring to these two events as extremes, we show that model predictions from the North American COordinated Regional climate Downscaling EXperiment (CORDEX) under different IPCC AR5 scenarios, suggest an increased risk of occurrence of extreme heat waves in the near future (2021-2050). In particular, under the most severe scenario, events of the same severity, as the 1980 and 2011 U.S. heat waves, will become more likely in the studied region.

Climate change impacts on extreme events in the United States: an uncertainty analysis

EPA Science Inventory

Extreme weather and climate events, such as heat waves, droughts and severe precipitation events, have substantial impacts on ecosystems and the economy. However, future climate simulations display large uncertainty in mean changes. As a result, the uncertainty in future changes ...

76 FR 45077 - Endangered and Threatened Wildlife and Plants; Designation of Critical Habitat for Ipomopsis...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-07-27

... and heat waves over most land areas will likely increase (IPCC 2007, pp. 13, 53). The IPCC predicts..., future projections for the Southwest include increased temperatures; more intense and longer-lasting heat..., droughty, and deficient in nutrients. Species that occupy such sites have been called ``stress- tolerators...

Climate change and heat-related mortality in six cities Part 1: model construction and validation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gosling, Simon N.; McGregor, Glenn R.; Páldy, Anna

2007-08-01

Heat waves are expected to increase in frequency and magnitude with climate change. The first part of a study to produce projections of the effect of future climate change on heat-related mortality is presented. Separate city-specific empirical statistical models that quantify significant relationships between summer daily maximum temperature ( T max) and daily heat-related deaths are constructed from historical data for six cities: Boston, Budapest, Dallas, Lisbon, London, and Sydney. ‘Threshold temperatures’ above which heat-related deaths begin to occur are identified. The results demonstrate significantly lower thresholds in ‘cooler’ cities exhibiting lower mean summer temperatures than in ‘warmer’ cities exhibiting higher mean summer temperatures. Analysis of individual ‘heat waves’ illustrates that a greater proportion of mortality is due to mortality displacement in cities with less sensitive temperature-mortality relationships than in those with more sensitive relationships, and that mortality displacement is no longer a feature more than 12 days after the end of the heat wave. Validation techniques through residual and correlation analyses of modelled and observed values and comparisons with other studies indicate that the observed temperature-mortality relationships are represented well by each of the models. The models can therefore be used with confidence to examine future heat-related deaths under various climate change scenarios for the respective cities (presented in Part 2).

Climate change induced heat wave hazard in eastern Africa: Dar Es Salaam (Tanzania) and Addis Ababa (Ethiopia) case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Capuano, Paolo; Sellerino, Mariangela; Di Ruocco, Angela; Kombe, Wilbard; Yeshitela, Kumelachew

2013-04-01

Last decades, new records were set in the world for tornadoes, drought, wind, floods, wildfires and hot temperatures, testifying unusual weather and climate patterns with increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. Extreme heat events are natural hazards affecting many regions in the world, nevertheless limited work has been done on the analysis and effects of extreme heat events in Africa, that is considered a continent particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change. In fact, the increase of temperature expected in the African continent during the 21st century is larger than the global mean warming, being about 3° to 4° C, about 1.5 times the global temperature increase (Christensen et al., 2007; Gualdi et al., 2012), with the subtropical regions projected to warm more than the tropical regions. Observations and downscaled model simulations (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 IPCC scenarios) are analyzed to describe heat wave characteristics in Dar es Salaam (Tanzania) and Addis Ababa (Ethiopia), spanning the last five decades as well as that projected for the 21st century. Observed data are daily maximum and minimum temperature collected in the period 1961-2011; downscaled model simulations span up to 2050. Heat waves are defined following a peak over threshold approach by statistical comparison to historical meteorological baselines (site dependent), using a fixed absolute threshold. Projected future warming in the Dar es Salaam and Addis Ababa shows a further increase in the heat waves parameters. Heat wave duration and hot days number are strictly correlated showing that the temperature rise could generate not only an increase of heat waves number but mainly a longer average duration, that can strongly affect the resilience capacity of the population, particularly the elder people. In fact, the impacts of heat waves on the society are determined also by temporal duration (Stephenson, 2008), in addition to their frequency, in fact the capacity of adaptation can be reduced with prolonged exposure to high temperature and humidity. The expected persistence of long-lived heat waves lasting approximately 1.5-2 weeks is clearly longer with respect to the climatological period (1961-1990). During 100 years, short lived but more intense waves are more than doubled in duration. It is evident the needs for the national health services to develop strategies for the mitigation of the heat wave effects, to enhance the resilience of the population, particularly the elder people.

Resilience to seasonal heat wave episodes in a Mediterranean pine forest.

PubMed

Tatarinov, Fedor; Rotenberg, Eyal; Maseyk, Kadmiel; Ogée, Jérôme; Klein, Tamir; Yakir, Dan

2016-04-01

Short-term, intense heat waves (hamsins) are common in the eastern Mediterranean region and provide an opportunity to study the resilience of forests to such events that are predicted to increase in frequency and intensity. The response of a 50-yr-old Aleppo pine (Pinus halepensis) forest to hamsin events lasting 1-7 d was studied using 10 yr of eddy covariance and sap flow measurements. The highest frequency of heat waves was c. four per month, coinciding with the peak productivity period (March-April). During these events, net ecosystem carbon exchange (NEE) and canopy conductance (gc ) decreased by c. 60%, but evapotranspiration (ET) showed little change. Fast recovery was also observed with fluxes reaching pre-stress values within a day following the event. NEE and gc showed a strong response to vapor pressure deficit that weakened as soil moisture decreased, while sap flow was primarily responding to changes in soil moisture. On an annual scale, heat waves reduced NEE and gross primary productivity by c. 15% and 4%, respectively. Forest resilience to short-term extreme events such as heat waves is probably a key to its survival and must be accounted for to better predict the increasing impact on productivity and survival of such events in future climates. © 2015 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2015 New Phytologist Trust.

Modification of land-atmosphere interactions by CO2 effects: Implications for summer dryness and heat wave amplitude

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lemordant, Léo.; Gentine, Pierre; Stéfanon, Marc; Drobinski, Philippe; Fatichi, Simone

2016-10-01

Plant stomata couple the energy, water, and carbon cycles. We use the framework of Regional Climate Modeling to simulate the 2003 European heat wave and assess how higher levels of surface CO2 may affect such an extreme event through land-atmosphere interactions. Increased CO2 modifies the seasonality of the water cycle through stomatal regulation and increased leaf area. As a result, the water saved during the growing season through higher water use efficiency mitigates summer dryness and the heat wave impact. Land-atmosphere interactions and CO2 fertilization together synergistically contribute to increased summer transpiration. This, in turn, alters the surface energy budget and decreases sensible heat flux, mitigating air temperature rise. Accurate representation of the response to higher CO2 levels and of the coupling between the carbon and water cycles is therefore critical to forecasting seasonal climate, water cycle dynamics, and to enhance the accuracy of extreme event prediction under future climate.

Future Evolution of Marine Heat Waves in the Mediterranean: Coupled Regional Climate Projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Darmaraki, Sofia; Somot, Samuel; Sevault, Florence; Nabat, Pierre; Cavicchia, Leone; Djurdjevic, Vladimir; Cabos, William; Sein, Dmitry

2017-04-01

FUTURE EVOLUTION OF MARINE HEAT WAVES IN THE MEDITERRANEAN : COUPLED REGIONAL CLIMATE PROJECTIONS The Mediterranean area is identified as a « Hot Spot » region, vulnerable to future climate change with potentially strong impacts over the sea. By 2100, climate models predict increased warming over the sea surface, with possible implications on the Mediterranean thermohaline and surface circulation,associated also with severe impacts on the ecosystems (e.g. fish habitat loss, species extinction and migration, invasive species). However, a robust assesment of the future evolution of the extreme marine temperatures remains still an open issue of primary importance, under the anthropogenic pressure. In this context, we study here the probability and characteristics of marine heat wave (MHW) occurrence in the Mediterranean Sea in future climate projections. To this end, we use an ensemble of fully coupled regional climate system models (RCSM) from the Med- CORDEX initiative. This multi-model approach includes a high-resolution representation of the atmospheric, land and ocean component, with a free air-sea interface.Specifically, dedicated simulations for the 20th and the 21st century are carried out with respect to the different IPCC-AR5 socioeconomic scenarios (1950-2100, RCP8.5, RCP4.5, RCP2.6). Model evaluation for the historical period is performed using satellite and in situ data. Then, the variety of factors that can cause the MHW (e.g. direct radiative forcing, ocean advection, stratification change) are examined to disentangle the dominant driving force. Finally, the spatial variability and temporal evolution of MHW are analyzed on an annual basis, along with additional integrated indicators, useful for marine ecosystems.

Radiofrequency heating of nanomaterials for cancer treatment: Progress, controversies, and future development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Xiaoming; Chen, Hui-jiuan; Chen, Xiaodong; Alfadhl, Yasir; Yu, Junsheng; Wen, Dongsheng

2015-03-01

In recent years, the application of nanomaterials to biological and biomedicine areas has attracted intensive interest. One of the hot topics is the nanomaterial mediated radiofrequency (RF) hyperthermia or ablation, i.e., using RF fields/waves to heat tumor tissues treated with nanomaterials to destroy cancerous cells while minimizing the side-heating effect. However, there are currently many contradictive results reported concerning the heating effect of nanomaterials under a RF field. This paper provided a comprehensive review to nanomaterial mediated RF ablation from both experimental and theoretical aspects. Three heating mechanisms were discussed, i.e., laser heating, magnetic field heating, and electric field heating in RF spectrum, with the focus on the last one. The results showed that while diluted pure metallic nanoparticles could be heated significantly by a laser through the surface plasmon resonance, they cannot be easily heated by a RF electric field. Further studies are proposed focusing on nanoparticle structure and morphology, electromagnetic frequency and localized heating effect to pave the way for future development.

Heat waves in the United States: mortality risk during heat waves and effect modification by heat wave characteristics in 43 U.S. communities.

PubMed

Anderson, G Brooke; Bell, Michelle L

2011-02-01

Devastating health effects from recent heat waves, and projected increases in frequency, duration, and severity of heat waves from climate change, highlight the importance of understanding health consequences of heat waves. We analyzed mortality risk for heat waves in 43 U.S. cities (1987-2005) and investigated how effects relate to heat waves' intensity, duration, or timing in season. Heat waves were defined as ≥ 2 days with temperature ≥ 95th percentile for the community for 1 May through 30 September. Heat waves were characterized by their intensity, duration, and timing in season. Within each community, we estimated mortality risk during each heat wave compared with non-heat wave days, controlling for potential confounders. We combined individual heat wave effect estimates using Bayesian hierarchical modeling to generate overall effects at the community, regional, and national levels. We estimated how heat wave mortality effects were modified by heat wave characteristics (intensity, duration, timing in season). Nationally, mortality increased 3.74% [95% posterior interval (PI), 2.29-5.22%] during heat waves compared with non-heat wave days. Heat wave mortality risk increased 2.49% for every 1°F increase in heat wave intensity and 0.38% for every 1-day increase in heat wave duration. Mortality increased 5.04% (95% PI, 3.06-7.06%) during the first heat wave of the summer versus 2.65% (95% PI, 1.14-4.18%) during later heat waves, compared with non-heat wave days. Heat wave mortality impacts and effect modification by heat wave characteristics were more pronounced in the Northeast and Midwest compared with the South. We found higher mortality risk from heat waves that were more intense or longer, or those occurring earlier in summer. These findings have implications for decision makers and researchers estimating health effects from climate change.

An Efficient Approximation of the Coronal Heating Rate for use in Global Sun-Heliosphere Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cranmer, Steven R.

2010-02-01

The origins of the hot solar corona and the supersonically expanding solar wind are still the subject of debate. A key obstacle in the way of producing realistic simulations of the Sun-heliosphere system is the lack of a physically motivated way of specifying the coronal heating rate. Recent one-dimensional models have been found to reproduce many observed features of the solar wind by assuming the energy comes from Alfvén waves that are partially reflected, then dissipated by magnetohydrodynamic turbulence. However, the nonlocal physics of wave reflection has made it difficult to apply these processes to more sophisticated (three-dimensional) models. This paper presents a set of robust approximations to the solutions of the linear Alfvén wave reflection equations. A key ingredient of the turbulent heating rate is the ratio of inward-to-outward wave power, and the approximations developed here allow this to be written explicitly in terms of local plasma properties at any given location. The coronal heating also depends on the frequency spectrum of Alfvén waves in the open-field corona, which has not yet been measured directly. A model-based assumption is used here for the spectrum, but the results of future measurements can be incorporated easily. The resulting expression for the coronal heating rate is self-contained, computationally efficient, and applicable directly to global models of the corona and heliosphere. This paper tests and validates the approximations by comparing the results to exact solutions of the wave transport equations in several cases relevant to the fast and slow solar wind.

Edge loss of high-harmonic fast-wave heating power in NSTX: a cylindrical model

DOE PAGES

Perkins, R. J.; Hosea, J. C.; Bertelli, N.; ...

2017-09-04

Efficient high-harmonic fast-wave (HHFW) heating in the National Spherical Torus Experiment Upgrade (NSTX-U) would facilitate experiments in turbulence, transport, fast-ion studies, and more. However, previous HHFW operation in NSTX exhibited a large loss of fast-wave power to the divertor along the scrape-off layer field lines for edge densities above the fast-wave cutoff. It was postulated that the wave amplitude is enhanced in the scrapeoff layer due to cavity-like modes, and that these enhanced fields drive sheath losses through RF rectification. As part of ongoing work to confirm this hypothesis, we have developed a cylindrical cold-plasma model to identify and understandmore » scenarios where a substantial fraction of wave power is confined to the plasma periphery. We previously identified a peculiar class of modes, named annulus resonances, that conduct approximately half of their wave power in the periphery and can also account for a significant fraction of the total wave power. Here, we study the influence of annulus resonances on wave field reconstructions and find instances where annulus-resonant modes dominate the spectrum and trap over half of the total wave power at the edge. The work is part of an ongoing effort to determine the mechanism underlying these scrape-off layer losses in NSTX, identify optimal conditions for operation in NSTX-U, and predict whether similar losses occur for the ion-cyclotron minority heating scheme for both current experiments and future devices such as ITER.« less

Edge loss of high-harmonic fast-wave heating power in NSTX: a cylindrical model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Perkins, R. J.; Hosea, J. C.; Bertelli, N.

Efficient high-harmonic fast-wave (HHFW) heating in the National Spherical Torus Experiment Upgrade (NSTX-U) would facilitate experiments in turbulence, transport, fast-ion studies, and more. However, previous HHFW operation in NSTX exhibited a large loss of fast-wave power to the divertor along the scrape-off layer field lines for edge densities above the fast-wave cutoff. It was postulated that the wave amplitude is enhanced in the scrapeoff layer due to cavity-like modes, and that these enhanced fields drive sheath losses through RF rectification. As part of ongoing work to confirm this hypothesis, we have developed a cylindrical cold-plasma model to identify and understandmore » scenarios where a substantial fraction of wave power is confined to the plasma periphery. We previously identified a peculiar class of modes, named annulus resonances, that conduct approximately half of their wave power in the periphery and can also account for a significant fraction of the total wave power. Here, we study the influence of annulus resonances on wave field reconstructions and find instances where annulus-resonant modes dominate the spectrum and trap over half of the total wave power at the edge. The work is part of an ongoing effort to determine the mechanism underlying these scrape-off layer losses in NSTX, identify optimal conditions for operation in NSTX-U, and predict whether similar losses occur for the ion-cyclotron minority heating scheme for both current experiments and future devices such as ITER.« less

Thermotolerance capacities of native and exotic coastal plants will lead to changes in species composition under increased heat waves

PubMed Central

Robinson, Sharon A.; Lia, Jodie

2017-01-01

Abstract With an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme heat events, plants are likely to reach their thermal limits and show slower growth or increased mortality. We investigated differences amongst coastal native and invasive shrubs and grasses to investigate if particular species might be more at risk in the future. Using an ecologically relevant experimental set of heat waves over a month, we assessed changes in biomass and photosynthetic efficiency in a laboratory setting using 25 coastal Australian species divided into native and exotic shrubs, and native and exotic grasses. We also compared three C3 and three C4 grasses within the native and exotic groups. Overall, native shrubs suffered higher mortality, lower growth and increased photosynthetic stress. There was some evidence that C3 grasses, had lower growth with heat waves, compared to C4 species although, in general, grasses showed evidence of photosynthetic acclimation over the month. Increases in leaf abscission suggest that part of the acclimation process was to develop new, thermally tolerant leaves. Our results indicate that in the future we would expect an increase in exotic shrubs and grasses occupying spaces in coastal plant communities that arise from native mortality following extreme heat events. Management of these coastal communities will need to focus strongly on maintaining a diverse native shrub composition that can resist climate-based disturbances (such as wildfire), as well as controlling the extent and biomass of exotic species, if coastal communities are to remain healthy and diverse in a changing climate. PMID:28491321

The health effects of hotter summers and heat waves in the population of the United Kingdom: a review of the evidence.

PubMed

Arbuthnott, Katherine G; Hajat, Shakoor

2017-12-05

It is widely acknowledged that the climate is warming globally and within the UK. In this paper, studies which assess the direct impact of current increased temperatures and heat-waves on health and those which project future health impacts of heat under different climate change scenarios in the UK are reviewed.This review finds that all UK studies demonstrate an increase in heat-related mortality occurring at temperatures above threshold values, with respiratory deaths being more sensitive to heat than deaths from cardiovascular disease (although the burden from cardiovascular deaths is greater in absolute terms). The relationship between heat and other health outcomes such as hospital admissions, myocardial infarctions and birth outcomes is less consistent. We highlight the main populations who are vulnerable to heat. Within the UK, these are older populations, those with certain co-morbidities and those living in Greater London, the South East and Eastern regions.In all assessments of heat-related impacts using different climate change scenarios, deaths are expected to increase due to hotter temperatures, with some studies demonstrating that an increase in the elderly population will also amplify burdens. However, key gaps in knowledge are found in relation to how urbanisation and population adaptation to heat will affect health impacts, and in relation to current and future strategies for effective, sustainable and equitable adaptation to heat. These and other key gaps in knowledge, both in terms of research needs and knowledge required to make sound public- health policy, are discussed.

Interactions between urban heat islands and heat waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Lei; Oppenheimer, Michael; Zhu, Qing; Baldwin, Jane W.; Ebi, Kristie L.; Bou-Zeid, Elie; Guan, Kaiyu; Liu, Xu

2018-03-01

Heat waves (HWs) are among the most damaging climate extremes to human society. Climate models consistently project that HW frequency, severity, and duration will increase markedly over this century. For urban residents, the urban heat island (UHI) effect further exacerbates the heat stress resulting from HWs. Here we use a climate model to investigate the interactions between the UHI and HWs in 50 cities in the United States under current climate and future warming scenarios. We examine UHI2m (defined as urban-rural difference in 2m-height air temperature) and UHIs (defined as urban-rural difference in radiative surface temperature). Our results show significant sensitivity of the interaction between UHI and HWs to local background climate and warming scenarios. Sensitivity also differs between daytime and nighttime. During daytime, cities in the temperate climate region show significant synergistic effects between UHI and HWs in current climate, with an average of 0.4 K higher UHI2m or 2.8 K higher UHIs during HWs than during normal days. These synergistic effects, however, diminish in future warmer climates. In contrast, the daytime synergistic effects for cities in dry regions are insignificant in the current climate, but emerge in future climates. At night, the synergistic effects are similar across climate regions in the current climate, and are stronger in future climate scenarios. We use a biophysical factorization method to disentangle the mechanisms behind the interactions between UHI and HWs that explain the spatial-temporal patterns of the interactions. Results show that the difference in the increase of urban versus rural evaporation and enhanced anthropogenic heat emissions (air conditioning energy use) during HWs are key contributors to the synergistic effects during daytime. The contrast in water availability between urban and rural land plays an important role in determining the contribution of evaporation. At night, the enhanced release of stored and anthropogenic heat during HWs are the primary contributors to the synergistic effects.

Analysis of a Community-based Intervention to Reduce Heat-related Illness during Heat Waves in Licheng, China: a Quasi-experimental Study.

PubMed

Li, Jing; Xu, Xin; Wang, Jun; Zhao, Yun; Song, Xiu Ping; Liu, Zhi Dong; Cao, Li Na; Jiang, Bao Fa; Liu, Qi Yong

2016-11-01

To reduce health-related threats of heat waves, interventions have been implemented in many parts of the world. However, there is a lack of higher-level evidence concerning the intervention efficacy. This study aimed to determine the efficacy of an intervention to reduce the number of heat-related illnesses. A quasi-experimental design was employed by two cross-sectional surveys in the year 2014 and 2015, including 2,240 participants and 2,356 participants, respectively. Each survey was designed to include one control group and one intervention group, which conducted in Licheng, China. A representative sample was selected using a multistage sampling method. Data, collected from questionnaires about heat waves in 2014 and 2015, were analyzed using a difference-in-difference analysis and cost effectiveness analysis. Outcomes included changes in the prevalence of heat-related illnesses and cost-effectiveness variables. Relative to the control participants, the prevalence of heat-related illness in the intervention participants decreased to a greater extent in rural areas than in urban areas (OR=0.495 vs. OR=1.281). Moreover, the cost-effectiveness ratio in the intervention group was less than that in the control group (US$15.06 vs. US$15.69 per participant). Furthermore, to avoid one additional patient, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio showed that an additional US$14.47 would be needed for the intervention compared to when no intervention was applied. The intervention program may be considered a worthwhile investment for rural areas that are more likely to experience heat waves. Meanwhile, corresponding improving measures should be presented towards urban areas. Future research should examine whether the intervention strategies could be spread out in other domestic or international regions where heat waves are usually experienced. Copyright © 2016 The Editorial Board of Biomedical and Environmental Sciences. Published by China CDC. All rights reserved.

Douglas-Fir Seedlings Exhibit Metabolic Responses to Increased Temperature and Atmospheric Drought

PubMed Central

Jansen, Kirstin; Du, Baoguo; Kayler, Zachary; Siegwolf, Rolf; Ensminger, Ingo; Rennenberg, Heinz; Kammerer, Bernd; Jaeger, Carsten; Schaub, Marcus; Kreuzwieser, Jürgen; Gessler, Arthur

2014-01-01

In the future, periods of strongly increased temperature in concert with drought (heat waves) will have potentially detrimental effects on trees and forests in Central Europe. Norway spruce might be at risk in the future climate of Central Europe. However, Douglas-fir is often discussed as an alternative for the drought and heat sensitive Norway spruce, because some provenances are considered to be well adapted to drier and warmer conditions. In this study, we identified the physiological and growth responses of seedlings from two different Douglas-fir provenances to increased temperature and atmospheric drought during a period of 92 days. We analysed (i) plant biomass, (ii) carbon stable isotope composition as an indicator for time integrated intrinsic water use efficiency, (iii) apparent respiratory carbon isotope fractionation as well as (iv) the profile of polar low molecular metabolites. Plant biomass was only slightly affected by increased temperatures and atmospheric drought but the more negative apparent respiratory fractionation indicated a temperature-dependent decrease in the commitment of substrate to the tricarboxylic acid cycle. The metabolite profile revealed that the simulated heat wave induced a switch in stress protecting compounds from proline to polyols. We conclude that metabolic acclimation successfully contributes to maintain functioning and physiological activity in seedlings of both Douglas-fir provenances under conditions that are expected during heat waves (i.e. elevated temperatures and atmospheric drought). Douglas-fir might be a potentially important tree species for forestry in Central Europe under changing climatic conditions. PMID:25436455

Deadly heat waves projected in the densely populated agricultural regions of South Asia.

PubMed

Im, Eun-Soon; Pal, Jeremy S; Eltahir, Elfatih A B

2017-08-01

The risk associated with any climate change impact reflects intensity of natural hazard and level of human vulnerability. Previous work has shown that a wet-bulb temperature of 35°C can be considered an upper limit on human survivability. On the basis of an ensemble of high-resolution climate change simulations, we project that extremes of wet-bulb temperature in South Asia are likely to approach and, in a few locations, exceed this critical threshold by the late 21st century under the business-as-usual scenario of future greenhouse gas emissions. The most intense hazard from extreme future heat waves is concentrated around densely populated agricultural regions of the Ganges and Indus river basins. Climate change, without mitigation, presents a serious and unique risk in South Asia, a region inhabited by about one-fifth of the global human population, due to an unprecedented combination of severe natural hazard and acute vulnerability.

Time trend in the impact of heat waves on daily mortality in Spain for a period of over thirty years (1983-2013).

PubMed

Díaz, J; Carmona, R; Mirón, I J; Luna, M Y; Linares, C

2018-07-01

Many of the studies that analyze the future impact of climate change on mortality assume that the temperature that constitutes a heat wave will not change over time. This is unlikely, however, given the process of adapting to heat changes, prevention plans, and improvements in social and health infrastructure. The objective of this study is to analyze whether, during the 1983-2013 period, there has been a temporal change in the maximum daily temperatures that constitute a heat wave (T threshold ) in Spain, and to investigate whether there has been variation in the attributable risk (AR) associated with mortality due to high temperatures in this period. This study uses daily mortality data for natural causes except accidents CIEX: A00-R99 in municipalities of over 10,000 inhabitants in 10 Spanish provinces and maximum temperature data from observatories located in province capitals. The time series is divided into three periods: 1983-1992, 1993-2003 and 2004-2013. For each period and each province, the value of T threshold was calculated using scatter-plot diagram of the daily mortality pre-whitened series. For each period and each province capitals, it has been calculated the number of heat waves and quantifying the impact on mortality through generalized linear model (GLM) methodology with the Poisson regression link. These models permits obtained the relative risks (RR) and attributable risks (AR). Via a meta-analysis, using the Global RR and AR were calculated the heat impact for the total of the 10 provinces. The results show that in the first two periods RR remained constant RR: 1.14 (CI95%: 1.09 1.19) and RR: 1.14 (CI95%: 1.10 1.18), while the third period shows a sharp decrease with respect to the prior two periods RR: 1.01 (CI95%: 1.00 1.01); the difference is statistically significant. In Spain there has been a sharp decrease in mortality attributable to heat over the past 10 years. The observed variation in RR puts into question the results of numerous studies that analyze the future impact of heat on mortality in different temporal scenarios and show it to be constant over time. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Outpatient clinic visits during heat waves: findings from a large family medicine clinical database.

PubMed

Vashishtha, Devesh; Sieber, William; Hailey, Brittany; Guirguis, Kristen; Gershunov, Alexander; Al-Delaimy, Wael K

2018-03-10

The purpose of this study was to determine whether heat waves are associated with increased frequency of clinic visits for ICD-9 codes of illnesses traditionally associated with heat waves. During 4 years of family medicine clinic data between 2012 and 2016, we identified six heat wave events in San Diego County. For each heat wave event, we selected a control period in the same season that was twice as long. Scheduling a visit on a heat wave day (versus a non-heat wave day) was the primary predictor, and receiving a primary ICD-9 disease code related to heat waves was the outcome. Analyses were adjusted for age, gender, race/ethnicity and marital status. Of the 5448 visits across the heat wave and control periods, 6.4% of visits (n = 346) were for heat wave-related diagnoses. Scheduling a visit on heat wave day was not associated with receiving a heat wave-related ICD code as compared with the control period (adjusted odds ratio: 1.35; 95% confidence interval: 0.86-1.36; P = 0.51). We show that in a relatively large and demographically diverse population, patients who schedule appointments during heat waves are not being more frequently seen for diagnoses typically associated with heat waves in the acute setting. Given that heat waves are increasing in frequency due to climate change, there is an opportunity to increase utilization of primary care clinics during heat waves.

Is there a Biological Basis for Therapeutic Applications of Millimetre Waves and THz Waves?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mattsson, Mats-Olof; Zeni, Olga; Simkó, Myrtill

2018-03-01

Millimetre wave (MMW) and THz wave (THz) applications are already employed in certain industrial and medical environments for non-destructive quality control, and medical imaging, diagnosis, and therapy, respectively. The aim of the present study is to investigate if published experimental studies (in vivo and in vitro) provide evidence for "non-thermal" biological effects of MMW and THz. Such effects would occur in absence of tissue heating and associated damage and are the ones that can be exploited for therapeutic medical use. The investigated studies provide some evidence for both MMW and THz that can influence biological systems in a manner that is not obviously driven by tissue heating. However, the number of relevant studies is very limited which severely limits the drawing of any far-reaching conclusions. Furthermore, the studies have not addressed specific interaction mechanisms and do not provide hints for future mechanistic studies. Also, the studies do not indicate any specific importance regarding power density levels, frequencies, or exposure duration. It is also unclear if any specific biological endpoints are especially sensitive. Any therapeutic potential of MMW or THz has to be evaluated based on future high-quality studies dealing with physical, bio-physical, and biological aspects that have specific health-related perspectives in mind.

ICRF-edge and surface interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

D'Ippolito, D. A.; Myra, J. R.

2011-08-01

This paper describes a number of deleterious interactions between radio-frequency (rf) waves and the boundary plasma in fusion experiments. These effects can lead to parasitic power dissipation, reduced heating efficiency, formation of hot spots at material boundaries, sputtering and self-sputtering, and arcing in the antenna structure. Minimizing these interactions is important to the success of rf heating, especially in future experiments with long-pulse or steady-state operation, higher power density, and high-Z divertor and walls. These interactions will be discussed with experimental examples. Finally, the present state of modeling and future plans will be summarized.

Heat waves and their significance for a temperate benthic community: A near-natural experimental approach.

PubMed

Pansch, Christian; Scotti, Marco; Barboza, Francisco R; Al-Janabi, Balsam; Brakel, Janina; Briski, Elizabeta; Bucholz, Björn; Franz, Markus; Ito, Maysa; Paiva, Filipa; Saha, Mahasweta; Sawall, Yvonne; Weinberger, Florian; Wahl, Martin

2018-04-23

Climate change will not only shift environmental means but will also increase the intensity of extreme events, exerting additional stress on ecosystems. While field observations on the ecological consequences of heat waves are emerging, experimental evidence is rare, and lacking at the community level. Using a novel "near-natural" outdoor mesocosms approach, this study tested whether marine summer heat waves have detrimental consequences for macrofauna of a temperate coastal community, and whether sequential heat waves provoke an increase or decrease of sensitivity to thermal stress. Three treatments were applied, defined and characterized through a statistical analysis of 15 years of temperature records from the experimental site: (1) no heat wave, (2) two heat waves in June and July followed by a summer heat wave in August and (3) the summer heat wave only. Overall, 50% of the species showed positive, negative or positive/negative responses in either abundance and/or biomass. We highlight four possible ways in which single species responded to either three subsequent heat waves or one summer heat wave: (1) absence of a response (tolerance, 50% of species), (2) negative accumulative effects by three subsequent heat waves (tellinid bivalve), (3) buffering by proceeding heat waves due to acclimation and/or shifts in phenology (spionid polychaete) and (4) an accumulative positive effect by subsequent heat waves (amphipod). The differential responses to single or sequential heat waves at the species level entailed shifts at the community level. Community-level differences between single and triple heat waves were more pronounced than those between regimes with vs. without heat waves. Detritivory was reduced by the single heat wave while suspension feeding was less common in the triple heat wave regime. Critical extreme events occur already today and will occur more frequently in a changing climate, thus, leading to detrimental impacts on coastal marine systems. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Experimental Study of RF Sheaths due to Shear Alfv'en Waves in the LAPD

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martin, Michael; van Compernolle, Bart; Carter, Troy; Gekelman, Walter; Pribyl, Patrick; D'Ippolito, Daniel A.; Myra, James R.

2012-10-01

Ion cyclotron resonance frequency (ICRF) heating is an important tool in current fusion experiments and will be an essential part of the heating power in ITER. A current limitation of ICRF heating is impurity generation through the formation of radiofrequency (RF) sheaths, both near-field (at the antenna) and far-field (e.g. in the divertor region). Far-field sheaths are thought to be generated through the direct launch of or mode conversion to shear Alfv'en waves. Shear Alfv'en waves have an electric field component parallel to the background magnetic field near the wall that drives an RF sheath.footnotetextD. A. D'Ippolito and J. R. Myra, Phys. Plasmas 19, 034504 (2012) In this study we directly launch the shear Alfv'en wave and measure the plasma potential oscillations and DC potential in the bulk plasma of the LAPD using emissive and Langmuir probes. Measured changes in the DC plasma potential can serve as an indirect measurement of the formation of an RF sheath because of rectification. These measurements will be useful in guiding future experiments to measure the plasma potential profile inside RF sheaths as part of an ongoing campaign.

Changes in cause-specific mortality during heat waves in central Spain, 1975-2008

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miron, Isidro Juan; Linares, Cristina; Montero, Juan Carlos; Criado-Alvarez, Juan Jose; Díaz, Julio

2015-09-01

The relationship between heat waves and mortality has been widely described, but there are few studies using long daily data on specific-cause mortality. This study is undertaken in central Spain and analysing natural causes, circulatory and respiratory causes of mortality from 1975 to 2008. Time-series analysis was performed using ARIMA models, including data on specific-cause mortality and maximum and mean daily temperature and mean daily air pressure. The length of heat waves and their chronological number were analysed. Data were stratified in three decadal stages: 1975-1985, 1986-1996 and 1997-2008. Heat-related mortality was triggered by a threshold temperature of 37 °C. For each degree that the daily maximum temperature exceeded 37 °C, the percentage increase in mortality due to circulatory causes was 19.3 % (17.3-21.3) in 1975-1985, 30.3 % (28.3-32.3) in 1986-1996 and 7.3 % (6.2-8.4) in 1997-2008. The increase in respiratory cause ranged from 12.4 % (7.8-17.0) in the first period, to 16.3 % (14.1-18.4) in the second and 13.7 % (11.5-15.9) in the last. Each day of heat-wave duration explained 5.3 % (2.6-8.0) increase in respiratory mortality in the first period and 2.3 % (1.6-3.0) in the last. Decadal scale differences exist for specific-causes mortality induced by extreme heat. The impact on heat-related mortality by natural and circulatory causes increases between the first and the second period and falls significantly in the last. For respiratory causes, the increase is no reduced in the last period. These results are of particular importance for the estimation of future impacts of climate change on health.

Heat Wave and Mortality: A Multicountry, Multicommunity Study

PubMed Central

Gasparrini, Antonio; Armstrong, Ben G.; Tawatsupa, Benjawan; Tobias, Aurelio; Lavigne, Eric; Coelho, Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio; Pan, Xiaochuan; Kim, Ho; Hashizume, Masahiro; Honda, Yasushi; Guo, Yue-Liang Leon; Wu, Chang-Fu; Zanobetti, Antonella; Schwartz, Joel D.; Bell, Michelle L.; Scortichini, Matteo; Michelozzi, Paola; Punnasiri, Kornwipa; Li, Shanshan; Tian, Linwei; Garcia, Samuel David Osorio; Seposo, Xerxes; Overcenco, Ala; Zeka, Ariana; Goodman, Patrick; Dang, Tran Ngoc; Dung, Do Van; Mayvaneh, Fatemeh; Saldiva, Paulo Hilario Nascimento; Williams, Gail; Tong, Shilu

2017-01-01

Background: Few studies have examined variation in the associations between heat waves and mortality in an international context. Objectives: We aimed to systematically examine the impacts of heat waves on mortality with lag effects internationally. Methods: We collected daily data of temperature and mortality from 400 communities in 18 countries/regions and defined 12 types of heat waves by combining community-specific daily mean temperature ≥90th, 92.5th, 95th, and 97.5th percentiles of temperature with duration ≥2, 3, and 4 d. We used time-series analyses to estimate the community-specific heat wave–mortality relation over lags of 0–10 d. Then, we applied meta-analysis to pool heat wave effects at the country level for cumulative and lag effects for each type of heat wave definition. Results: Heat waves of all definitions had significant cumulative associations with mortality in all countries, but varied by community. The higher the temperature threshold used to define heat waves, the higher heat wave associations on mortality. However, heat wave duration did not modify the impacts. The association between heat waves and mortality appeared acutely and lasted for 3 and 4 d. Heat waves had higher associations with mortality in moderate cold and moderate hot areas than cold and hot areas. There were no added effects of heat waves on mortality in all countries/regions, except for Brazil, Moldova, and Taiwan. Heat waves defined by daily mean and maximum temperatures produced similar heat wave–mortality associations, but not daily minimum temperature. Conclusions: Results indicate that high temperatures create a substantial health burden, and effects of high temperatures over consecutive days are similar to what would be experienced if high temperature days occurred independently. People living in moderate cold and moderate hot areas are more sensitive to heat waves than those living in cold and hot areas. Daily mean and maximum temperatures had similar ability to define heat waves rather than minimum temperature. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP1026 PMID:28886602

Future Midwest Heat Waves in WRF

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huber, M.; Buzan, J. R.; Yoo, J.

2017-12-01

We present heat stress results for the upper Midwest derived from convection resolving Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulations carried out for the RCP 8.5 Scenario and driven by Community Earth System Model (CESM) boundary conditions as part of the Indiana Climate Change Assessment. Using this modeling system we find widespread and severe increases in moist heat stress metrics in the Midwest by end of century. We detail scaling arguments that suggest our results are robust and not model dependent and describe potential health, welfare, and productivity implications of these results.

Studies of large amplitude Alfvén waves and wave-wave interactions in LAPD

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carter, T. A.; Brugman, B.; Auerbach, D. W.

2006-10-01

Electromagnetic turbulence is thought to play an important role in plasmas in astrophysical settings (e.g. the interstellar medium, accretion disks) and in the laboratory (e.g. transport in magnetic fusion devices). From a weak turbulence point of view, nonlinear interactions between shear Alfvén waves are fundamental to the turbulent energy cascade in magnetic turbulence. An overview of experiments on large amplitude shear Alfvén waves in the Large Plasma Device (LAPD) will be presented. Large amplitude Alfvén waves (δB/B ˜1%) are generated either using a resonant cavity or loop antennas. Properties of Alfvén waves generated by these sources will be discussed, along with evidence of heating, background density modification and electron acceleration by the waves. An overview of experiments on wave-wave interactions will be given along with a discussion of future directions.

Accounting for adaptation and intensity in projecting heat wave-related mortality.

PubMed

Wang, Yan; Nordio, Francesco; Nairn, John; Zanobetti, Antonella; Schwartz, Joel D

2018-02-01

How adaptation and intensity of heat waves affect heat wave-related mortality is unclear, making health projections difficult. We estimated the effect of heat waves, the effect of the intensity of heat waves, and adaptation on mortality in 209 U.S. cities with 168 million people during 1962-2006. We improved the standard time-series models by incorporating the intensity of heat waves using excess heat factor (EHF) and estimating adaptation empirically using interactions with yearly mean summer temperature (MST). We combined the epidemiological estimates for heat wave, intensity, and adaptation with the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) multi-model dataset to project heat wave-related mortality by 2050. The effect of heat waves increased with its intensity. Adaptation to heat waves occurred, which was shown by the decreasing effect of heat waves with MST. However, adaptation was lessened as MST increased. Ignoring adaptation in projections would result in a substantial overestimate of the projected heat wave-related mortality (by 277-747% in 2050). Incorporating the empirically estimated adaptation into projections would result in little change in the projected heat wave-related mortality between 2006 and 2050. This differs regionally, however, with increasing mortality over time for cities in the southern and western U.S. but decreasing mortality over time for the north. Accounting for adaptation is important to reduce bias in the projections of heat wave-related mortality. The finding that the southern and western U.S. are the areas that face increasing heat-related deaths is novel, and indicates that more regional adaptation strategies are needed. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Heat Wave Vulnerability Mapping for India.

PubMed

Azhar, Gulrez; Saha, Shubhayu; Ganguly, Partha; Mavalankar, Dileep; Madrigano, Jaime

2017-03-30

Assessing geographic variability in heat wave vulnerability forms the basis for planning appropriate targeted adaptation strategies. Given several recent deadly heatwaves in India, heat is increasingly being recognized as a public health problem. However, to date there has not been a country-wide assessment of heat vulnerability in India. We evaluated demographic, socioeconomic, and environmental vulnerability factors and combined district level data from several sources including the most recent census, health reports, and satellite remote sensing data. We then applied principal component analysis (PCA) on 17 normalized variables for each of the 640 districts to create a composite Heat Vulnerability Index (HVI) for India. Of the total 640 districts, our analysis identified 10 and 97 districts in the very high and high risk categories (> 2SD and 2-1SD HVI) respectively. Mapping showed that the districts with higher heat vulnerability are located in the central parts of the country. On examination, these are less urbanized and have low rates of literacy, access to water and sanitation, and presence of household amenities. Therefore, we concluded that creating and mapping a heat vulnerability index is a useful first step in protecting the public from the health burden of heat. Future work should incorporate heat exposure and health outcome data to validate the index, as well as examine sub-district levels of vulnerability.

Role of absorbing aerosols on hot extremes in India in a GCM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mondal, A.; Sah, N.; Venkataraman, C.; Patil, N.

2017-12-01

Temperature extremes and heat waves in North-Central India during the summer months of March through June are known for causing significant impact in terms of human health, productivity and mortality. While greenhouse gas-induced global warming is generally believed to intensify the magnitude and frequency of such extremes, aerosols are usually associated with an overall cooling, by virtue of their dominant radiation scattering nature, in most world regions. Recently, large-scale atmospheric conditions leading to heat wave and extreme temperature conditions have been analysed for the North-Central Indian region. However, the role of absorbing aerosols, including black carbon and dust, is still not well understood, in mediating hot extremes in the region. In this study, we use 30-year simulations from a chemistry-coupled atmosphere-only General Circulation Model (GCM), ECHAM6-HAM2, forced with evolving aerosol emissions in an interactive aerosol module, along with observed sea surface temperatures, to examine large-scale and mesoscale conditions during hot extremes in India. The model is first validated with observed gridded temperature and reanalysis data, and is found to represent observed variations in temperature in the North-Central region and concurrent large-scale atmospheric conditions during high temperature extremes realistically. During these extreme events, changes in near surface properties include a reduction in single scattering albedo and enhancement in short-wave solar heating rate, compared to climatological conditions. This is accompanied by positive anomalies of black carbon and dust aerosol optical depths. We conclude that the large-scale atmospheric conditions such as the presence of anticyclones and clear skies, conducive to heat waves and high temperature extremes, are exacerbated by absorbing aerosols in North-Central India. Future air quality regulations are expected to reduce sulfate particles and their masking of GHG warming. It is concurrently important to mitigate emissions of warming black carbon particles, to manage future climate change-induced hot extremes.

Deadly heat waves projected in the densely populated agricultural regions of South Asia

PubMed Central

Im, Eun-Soon; Pal, Jeremy S.; Eltahir, Elfatih A. B.

2017-01-01

The risk associated with any climate change impact reflects intensity of natural hazard and level of human vulnerability. Previous work has shown that a wet-bulb temperature of 35°C can be considered an upper limit on human survivability. On the basis of an ensemble of high-resolution climate change simulations, we project that extremes of wet-bulb temperature in South Asia are likely to approach and, in a few locations, exceed this critical threshold by the late 21st century under the business-as-usual scenario of future greenhouse gas emissions. The most intense hazard from extreme future heat waves is concentrated around densely populated agricultural regions of the Ganges and Indus river basins. Climate change, without mitigation, presents a serious and unique risk in South Asia, a region inhabited by about one-fifth of the global human population, due to an unprecedented combination of severe natural hazard and acute vulnerability. PMID:28782036

Six climate change-related events in the United States accounted for about $14 billion in lost lives and health costs.

PubMed

Knowlton, Kim; Rotkin-Ellman, Miriam; Geballe, Linda; Max, Wendy; Solomon, Gina M

2011-11-01

The future health costs associated with predicted climate change-related events such as hurricanes, heat waves, and floods are projected to be enormous. This article estimates the health costs associated with six climate change-related events that struck the United States between 2000 and 2009. The six case studies came from categories of climate change-related events projected to worsen with continued global warming-ozone pollution, heat waves, hurricanes, infectious disease outbreaks, river flooding, and wildfires. We estimate that the health costs exceeded $14 billion, with 95 percent due to the value of lives lost prematurely. Actual health care costs were an estimated $740 million. This reflects more than 760,000 encounters with the health care system. Our analysis provides scientists and policy makers with a methodology to use in estimating future health costs related to climate change and highlights the growing need for public health preparedness.

[Media and public health: example of heat wave during summer 2003].

PubMed

Boyer, L; Robitail, S; Debensason, D; Auquier, P; San Marco, J-L

2005-11-01

The summer of 2003 was the hottest for France in the last 50 years with record day and nighttime temperatures. INSERM statistics estimated that 14,802 heat-related deaths occurred during August 2003 heat wave in France. In the aftermath of this crisis, we thought that it was useful to analyze how the French media dealt with public health during the period from June 1 to August 31, 2003. The objective was to analyze French coverage of public health information during the August 2003 heat wave. Manual and computerized analysis of newspaper and radio reports published from June 1 to August 31, 2003. Articles were obtained by searching the EUROPRESS database. Text analysis was performed using the ALCESTE software package. A total of 1,599 articles were analyzed. Few articles contained warnings about heat exposure and preventive measures. Public health policy was relegated to third place after business and ecology themes. The special problems of the high-risk populations were not mentioned until after the rising death toll was known and emphasis was placed on the implications of the crisis in the political process. The findings of this study show the poor performance of public health policy in France and that media must be given guidance to fulfil its role in providing public health information. This crisis discloses the absence of public health culture in France and involves the "social exclusion" related to a breakdown of social cohesion. More cooperation is needed between the media and public health professionals to avoid future heat-wave and other public health crises. France must develop a public health culture to promote involvement of both the community and individuals in public health issues.

Electron Bernstein Wave Research on NSTX and CDX-U

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taylor, G.; Efthimion, P. C.; Jones, B.; Bell, G. L.; Bers, A.; Bigelow, T. S.; Carter, M. D.; Harvey, R. W.; Ram, A. K.; Rasmussen, D. A.; Smirnov, A. P.; Wilgen, J. B.; Wilson, J. R.

2003-12-01

Studies of thermally emitted electron Bernstein waves (EBWs) on CDX-U and NSTX, via mode conversion (MC) to electromagnetic radiation, support the use of EBWs to measure the Te profile and provide local electron heating and current drive (CD) in overdense spherical torus plasmas. An X-mode antenna with radially adjustable limiters successfully controlled EBW MC on CDX-U and enhanced MC efficiency to ˜ 100%. So far the X-mode MC efficiency on NSTX has been increased by a similar technique to 40-50% and future experiments are focused on achieving ⩾ 80% MC. MC efficiencies on both machines agree well with theoretical predictions. Ray tracing and Fokker-Planck modeling for NSTX equilibria are being conducted to support the design of a 3 MW, 15 GHz EBW heating and CD system for NSTX to assist non-inductive plasma startup, current ramp up, and to provide local electron heating and CD in high β NSTX plasmas.

California heat waves: their spatial evolution, variation, and coastal modulation by low clouds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clemesha, Rachel E. S.; Guirguis, Kristen; Gershunov, Alexander; Small, Ivory J.; Tardy, Alexander

2018-06-01

We examine the spatial and temporal evolution of heat waves through California and consider one of the key modulating factors of summertime coastal climate—coastal low cloudiness (CLC). Heat waves are defined relative to daytime maximum temperature (Tmax) anomalies after removing local seasonality and capture unseasonably warm events during May—September. California is home to several diverse climate regions and characteristics of extreme heat events are also variable throughout these regions. Heat wave events tend to be shorter, but more anomalously intense along the coast. Heat waves typically impact both coastal and inland regions, although there is more propensity towards coastally trapped events. Most heat waves with a strong impact across regions start at the coast, proceed inland, and weaken at the coast before letting up inland. Typically, the beginning of coastal heat waves are associated with a loss of CLC, followed by a strong rebound of CLC starting close to the peak in heat wave intensity. The degree to which an inland heat wave is expressed at the coast is associated with the presence of these low clouds. Inland heat waves that have very little expression at the coast tend to have CLC present and an elevated inversion base height compared with other heat waves.

To bloom or not to bloom: contrasting responses of cyanobacteria to recent heat waves explained by critical thresholds of abiotic drivers.

PubMed

Huber, Veronika; Wagner, Carola; Gerten, Dieter; Adrian, Rita

2012-05-01

Past heat waves are considered harbingers of future climate change. In this study, we have evaluated the effects of two recent Central European summer heat waves (2003 and 2006) on cyanobacterial blooms in a eutrophic, shallow lake. While a bloom of cyanobacteria developed in 2006, consistent with our expectations, cyanobacterial biomass surprisingly remained at a record-low during the entire summer of 2003. Critical thresholds of abiotic drivers extracted from the long-term (1993-2007) data set of the studied lake using classification tree analysis (CTA) proved suitable to explain these observations. We found that cyanobacterial blooms were especially favoured in 2006 because thermal stratification was critically intense (Schmidt stability >44 g cm cm(-2)) and long-lasting (>3 weeks). Our results also suggest that some cyanobacterial species (Anabaena sp.) benefitted directly from the stable water column, whereas other species (Planktothrix sp.) took advantage of stratification-induced internal nutrient loading. In 2003, conditions were less favourable for cyanobacteria due to a spell of lower temperatures and stronger winds in mid-summer; as a result, the identified thresholds of thermal stratification were hardly ever reached. Overall, our study shows that extracting critical thresholds of environmental drivers from long-term records is a promising avenue for predicting ecosystem responses to future climate warming. Specifically, our results emphasize that not average temperature increase but changes in short-term meteorological variability will determine whether cyanobacteria will bloom more often in a warmer world.

Projection of heat waves over China for eight different global warming targets using 12 CMIP5 models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Xiaojun; Huang, Jianbin; Luo, Yong; Zhao, Zongci; Xu, Ying

2017-05-01

Simulation and projection of the characteristics of heat waves over China were investigated using 12 CMIP5 global climate models and the CN05.1 observational gridded dataset. Four heat wave indices (heat wave frequency, longest heat wave duration, heat wave days, and high temperature days) were adopted in the analysis. Evaluations of the 12 CMIP5 models and their ensemble indicated that the multi-model ensemble could capture the spatiotemporal characteristics of heat wave variation over China. The inter-decadal variations of heat waves during 1961-2005 can be well simulated by multi-model ensemble. Based on model projections, the features of heat waves over China for eight different global warming targets (1.5, 2.0, 2.5, 3.0, 3.5, 4.0, 4.5, and 5.0 °C) were explored. The results showed that the frequency and intensity of heat waves would increase more dramatically as the global mean temperature rise attained higher warming targets. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, the four China-averaged heat wave indices would increase from about 1.0 times/year, 2.5, 5.4, and 13.8 days/year to about 3.2 times/year, 14.0, 32.0, and 31.9 days/year for 1.5 and 5.0 °C warming targets, respectively. Those regions that suffer severe heat waves in the base climate would experience the heat waves with greater frequency and severity following global temperature rise. It is also noteworthy that the areas in which a greater number of severe heat waves occur displayed considerable expansion. Moreover, the model uncertainties exhibit a gradual enhancement with projected time extending from 2006 to 2099.

Sustainability of Smart Cities under Climate Variability and Climate Change in India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, R.; Mishra, V.

2015-12-01

India has experienced a rapid urbanization during the past few decades. On the other hand, many parts of the country witnessed significant changes in mean and extreme climate related to precipitation and temperature. Here we analysed urban residence using the remotely sensed data considering the susceptibility of Indian cities to droughts and heat waves. We selected recently announced 100 urban areas that are planned to be developed as smart cities in future. Gridded precipitation data were used to compute SPEI values for frequency and ascertain the extent of droughts in the cities. The heat wave analysis was done in two phases. First phase included analysis using Heat Wave Magnitude Index (HWMI) to determine the intensity of such extreme events. In the second phase, Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect across different ecological configuration was studied for the cities. Land Surface Temperature (LST), urban extent map from MODIS and land-cover maps were used to study the UHI effect. For this, the urban extents were divided into urban core and sub-urban zones based on built up regions in the cities. The urban to rural temperature difference is analysed considering the ecological configuration in the region. The selected cities were categorised based on the biome features surrounding them. The results suggest aggravated condition in the urban space in India with reference to extreme events. For instance, extreme heat waves have substantially increased in India during the last few decades. In many urban areas, the UHI effect contributed a significant warming due to increased urbanization. We estimated projected changes in droughts and heat waves in the selected urban areas using the dynamically downscaled data from the region climate models. Our results suggest that a majority of urban areas are projected to face an elevated risk of temperature related extremes and issues of water sustainability in the coming decades.

Timing of climate variability and grassland productivity

PubMed Central

Craine, Joseph M.; Nippert, Jesse B.; Elmore, Andrew J.; Skibbe, Adam M.; Hutchinson, Stacy L.; Brunsell, Nathaniel A.

2012-01-01

Future climates are forecast to include greater precipitation variability and more frequent heat waves, but the degree to which the timing of climate variability impacts ecosystems is uncertain. In a temperate, humid grassland, we examined the seasonal impacts of climate variability on 27 y of grass productivity. Drought and high-intensity precipitation reduced grass productivity only during a 110-d period, whereas high temperatures reduced productivity only during 25 d in July. The effects of drought and heat waves declined over the season and had no detectable impact on grass productivity in August. If these patterns are general across ecosystems, predictions of ecosystem response to climate change will have to account not only for the magnitude of climate variability but also for its timing. PMID:22331914

Projected Heat Wave Characteristics over the Korean Peninsula During the Twenty-First Century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shin, Jongsoo; Olson, Roman; An, Soon-Il

2018-02-01

Climate change is expected to increase temperatures globally, and consequently more frequent, longer, and hotter heat waves are likely to occur. Ambiguity in defining heat waves appropriately makes it difficult to compare changes in heat wave events over time. This study provides a quantitative definition of a heat wave and makes probabilistic heat wave projections for the Korean Peninsula under two global warming scenarios. Changes to heat waves under global warming are investigated using the representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) and 8.5 (RCP8.5) experiments from 30 coupled models participating in phase five of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project. Probabilistic climate projections from multi-model ensembles have been constructed using both simple and weighted averaging. Results from both methods are similar and show that heat waves will be more intense, frequent, and longer lasting. These trends are more apparent under the RCP8.5 scenario as compared to the RCP4.5 scenario. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, typical heat waves are projected to become stronger than any heat wave experienced in the recent measurement record. Furthermore, under this scenario, it cannot be ruled out that Korea will experience heat wave conditions spanning almost an entire summer before the end of the 21st century.

How hard they hit? Perception, adaptation and public health implications of heat waves in urban and peri-urban Pakistan.

PubMed

Rauf, Sara; Bakhsh, Khuda; Abbas, Azhar; Hassan, Sarfraz; Ali, Asghar; Kächele, Harald

2017-04-01

Heat waves threaten human health given the fast changing climatic scenarios in the recent past. Adaptation to heat waves would take place when people perceive their impacts based on their knowledge. The present study examines perception level and its determinants resulting in adaptation to heat waves in Pakistan. The study used cross-sectional data from urban and peri-urban respondents of Faisalabad District. The study employs a health belief model to assess risk perception among the respondents. Logistic model is used to determine factors affecting level of knowledge, perception and adaptation to heat waves. Around 30% of peri-urban respondents have a low level of knowledge about the fatal impacts of heat waves. Risk perception of heat waves is very low among urban (57%) and peri-urban (66%) respondents. Households' knowledge on heat waves is significantly related to age, gender, education, wealth and access to health services. Determinants of perception include knowledge of heat waves, age and joint effect of marital status and knowledge while income level, family size, urban/peri-urban background, perceived barriers, perceived benefits and cues to action significantly affect adaptation to heat waves. To reduce deadly health impacts, mass awareness campaigns are needed to build perception and improve adaptation to heat waves.

Experimental Database with Baseline CFD Solutions: 2-D and Axisymmetric Hypersonic Shock-Wave/Turbulent-Boundary-Layer Interactions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Marvin, Joseph G.; Brown, James L.; Gnoffo, Peter A.

2013-01-01

A database compilation of hypersonic shock-wave/turbulent boundary layer experiments is provided. The experiments selected for the database are either 2D or axisymmetric, and include both compression corner and impinging type SWTBL interactions. The strength of the interactions range from attached to incipient separation to fully separated flows. The experiments were chosen based on criterion to ensure quality of the datasets, to be relevant to NASA's missions and to be useful for validation and uncertainty assessment of CFD Navier-Stokes predictive methods, both now and in the future. An emphasis on datasets selected was on surface pressures and surface heating throughout the interaction, but include some wall shear stress distributions and flowfield profiles. Included, for selected cases, are example CFD grids and setup information, along with surface pressure and wall heating results from simulations using current NASA real-gas Navier-Stokes codes by which future CFD investigators can compare and evaluate physics modeling improvements and validation and uncertainty assessments of future CFD code developments. The experimental database is presented tabulated in the Appendices describing each experiment. The database is also provided in computer-readable ASCII files located on a companion DVD.

Using Forecast and Observed Weather Data to Assess Performance of Forecast Products in Identifying Heat Waves and Estimating Heat Wave Effects on Mortality

PubMed Central

Chen, Yeh-Hsin; Schwartz, Joel D.; Rood, Richard B.; O’Neill, Marie S.

2014-01-01

Background: Heat wave and health warning systems are activated based on forecasts of health-threatening hot weather. Objective: We estimated heat–mortality associations based on forecast and observed weather data in Detroit, Michigan, and compared the accuracy of forecast products for predicting heat waves. Methods: We derived and compared apparent temperature (AT) and heat wave days (with heat waves defined as ≥ 2 days of daily mean AT ≥ 95th percentile of warm-season average) from weather observations and six different forecast products. We used Poisson regression with and without adjustment for ozone and/or PM10 (particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter ≤ 10 μm) to estimate and compare associations of daily all-cause mortality with observed and predicted AT and heat wave days. Results: The 1-day-ahead forecast of a local operational product, Revised Digital Forecast, had about half the number of false positives compared with all other forecasts. On average, controlling for heat waves, days with observed AT = 25.3°C were associated with 3.5% higher mortality (95% CI: –1.6, 8.8%) than days with AT = 8.5°C. Observed heat wave days were associated with 6.2% higher mortality (95% CI: –0.4, 13.2%) than non–heat wave days. The accuracy of predictions varied, but associations between mortality and forecast heat generally tended to overestimate heat effects, whereas associations with forecast heat waves tended to underestimate heat wave effects, relative to associations based on observed weather metrics. Conclusions: Our findings suggest that incorporating knowledge of local conditions may improve the accuracy of predictions used to activate heat wave and health warning systems. Citation: Zhang K, Chen YH, Schwartz JD, Rood RB, O’Neill MS. 2014. Using forecast and observed weather data to assess performance of forecast products in identifying heat waves and estimating heat wave effects on mortality. Environ Health Perspect 122:912–918; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1306858 PMID:24833618

Reconfigurable nanoscale spin-wave directional coupler

PubMed Central

Wang, Qi; Pirro, Philipp; Verba, Roman; Slavin, Andrei; Hillebrands, Burkard; Chumak, Andrii V.

2018-01-01

Spin waves, and their quanta magnons, are prospective data carriers in future signal processing systems because Gilbert damping associated with the spin-wave propagation can be made substantially lower than the Joule heat losses in electronic devices. Although individual spin-wave signal processing devices have been successfully developed, the challenging contemporary problem is the formation of two-dimensional planar integrated spin-wave circuits. Using both micromagnetic modeling and analytical theory, we present an effective solution of this problem based on the dipolar interaction between two laterally adjacent nanoscale spin-wave waveguides. The developed device based on this principle can work as a multifunctional and dynamically reconfigurable signal directional coupler performing the functions of a waveguide crossing element, tunable power splitter, frequency separator, or multiplexer. The proposed design of a spin-wave directional coupler can be used both in digital logic circuits intended for spin-wave computing and in analog microwave signal processing devices. PMID:29376117

Reconfigurable nanoscale spin-wave directional coupler.

PubMed

Wang, Qi; Pirro, Philipp; Verba, Roman; Slavin, Andrei; Hillebrands, Burkard; Chumak, Andrii V

2018-01-01

Spin waves, and their quanta magnons, are prospective data carriers in future signal processing systems because Gilbert damping associated with the spin-wave propagation can be made substantially lower than the Joule heat losses in electronic devices. Although individual spin-wave signal processing devices have been successfully developed, the challenging contemporary problem is the formation of two-dimensional planar integrated spin-wave circuits. Using both micromagnetic modeling and analytical theory, we present an effective solution of this problem based on the dipolar interaction between two laterally adjacent nanoscale spin-wave waveguides. The developed device based on this principle can work as a multifunctional and dynamically reconfigurable signal directional coupler performing the functions of a waveguide crossing element, tunable power splitter, frequency separator, or multiplexer. The proposed design of a spin-wave directional coupler can be used both in digital logic circuits intended for spin-wave computing and in analog microwave signal processing devices.

Global climate change: impact of heat waves under different definitions on daily mortality in Wuhan, China.

PubMed

Zhang, Yunquan; Feng, Renjie; Wu, Ran; Zhong, Peirong; Tan, Xiaodong; Wu, Kai; Ma, Lu

2017-01-01

There was no consistent definition for heat wave worldwide, while a limited number of studies have compared the mortality effect of heat wave as defined differently. This paper aimed to provide epidemiological evidence for policy makers to determine the most appropriate definition for local heat wave warning systems. We developed 45 heat wave definitions (HWs) combining temperature indicators and temperature thresholds with durations. We then assessed the impact of heat waves under various definitions on non-accidental mortality in hot season (May-September) in Wuhan, China during 2003-2010. Heat waves defined by HW14 (daily mean temperature ≥ 99.0th percentile and duration ≥ 3 days) had the best predictive ability in assessing the mortality effects of heat wave with the relative risk of 1.63 (95% CI : 1.43, 1.89) for total mortality. The group-specific mortality risk using official heat wave definition of Chinese Meteorological Administration was much smaller than that using HW14. We also found that women, and the elderly (age ≥ 65) were more susceptible to heat wave effects which were stronger and longer lasting. These findings suggest that region specific heat wave definitions are crucial and necessary for developing efficient local heat warning systems and for providing evidence for policy makers to protect the vulnerable population.

Analysing the response of European ecosystems to droughts and heat waves within ISI-MIP2 simulations.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dury, M.; Henrot, A. J.; Francois, L. M.; Munhoven, G.; Jacquemin, I.; Friend, A. D.; Rademacher, T. T.; Hacket Pain, A. J.; Hickler, T.

2015-12-01

With unprecedented speed and extent, the future climate change can be expected to severely impact terrestrial ecosystems due to more frequent extreme events, such as droughts or heat waves. What will be the impacts of these extreme events on ecosystem functioning and structure? How far will net primary production be reduced by such events? What will be the impact on plant mortality? Could such events trigger changes in the abundance of plant species, thus leading to biome shifts? In this contribution, we propose to use ISI-MIP2 model historical simulations from the biome sector to analyse the response of ecosystems to droughts or heat waves, trying to understand the differences between several vegetation models (e.g. CARAIB, HYBRID, LPJ). The analysis will focus on Europe. It will compare and assess the model responses for a series of well-marked drought or heat wave events in the simulated historical period, such as those that occurred in 1976, 2003 or 2010. This analysis will be performed in terms of several important environmental variables, like soil water and hydric stress, runoff, PFT abundance, net primary productivity and biomass, fire frequency, turnover of soil organic matter, etc. Whenever possible, the response of the model will be compared to available data for the most recent well-marked events. Examples of data to be used are eddy covariance, satellite data (including leaf area and fire occurrence) or tree rings.

Sahelian springtime heat waves and their evolution over the past 60 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barbier, Jessica; Guichard, Françoise; Bouniol, Dominique; Couvreux, Fleur; Roehrig, Romain

2017-04-01

The Sahel is a semi-arid region which experiences very high temperature both during day- and night-times: monthly-mean temperatures in Spring typically oscillate between 30 and 40°C. At the same time a strong climatic warming has been observed over the past 60 years in this region: it reaches +1,5°C over April-May. Thus heat waves in this region have severe impacts on health, ecosystem, agriculture and more broadly economical activities, which will probably worsen in the context of climate change. However, heat waves in the Sahel remain poorly studied. The present work documents Sahelian heat waves and assesses their evolution across the last 60 years. Properties of heat waves are sensitive to the way they are detected. Here, we use a methodology based on anomalies that allows to filter the seasonal, inter-annual and climatic evolutions, using a percentile-type threshold. It is applied separately to daily maximum and minimum temperatures and leads to two types of heat waves: day- and night-time ones. This separation matters because physical processes linked to minimum and maximum temperatures can be quite distinct. The changes in both types of heat wave were studied over the period 1950-2012 using the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature gridded product: several heat wave characteristics were investigated, including morphological ones such as the length and the spatial extent of the event, the heat wave intensity and the associated warming trends. We found no significant trends in the frequency, duration and spatial extent of both types of heat waves, while on the other hand their maximum and minimum temperatures displayed significant positive trends. They were mainly explained by the regional warming. By contrast, with a standard climatic heat index using percentile-threshold on raw temperatures, both day- and night-time heat wave frequencies were increasing, and while the day-time heat waves were getting longer and larger, the night-time heat waves were getting hotter. The explanations for the differences between the heat indexes will be discussed. The ability of the three reanalyses ERA-Interim, NCEP2 and MERRA to reproduce Sahelian heat wave properties and their associated trends was further assessed on the period 1979-2010. At this shorter scale, we did not find any significant heat wave trend. Furthermore, reanalyses strongly differed in the representation of the heat wave inter-annual variability. These results raise concern about the utilization of meteorological reanalyses for the study of heat wave trends in West Africa.

Awareness of and Attitudes towards Heat Waves within the Context of Climate Change among a Cohort of Residents in Adelaide, Australia

PubMed Central

Akompab, Derick A.; Bi, Peng; Williams, Susan; Grant, Janet; Walker, Iain A.; Augoustinos, Martha

2012-01-01

Heat waves are a public health concern in Australia and unprecedented heat waves have been recorded in Adelaide over recent years. The aim of this study was to examine the perception and attitudes towards heat waves in the context of climate change among a group of residents in Adelaide, an Australian city with a temperate climate. A cross-sectional study was conducted in the summer of 2012 among a sample of 267 residents. The results of the survey found that television (89.9%), radio (71.2%), newspapers (45.3%) were the main sources from which respondents received information about heat waves. The majority of the respondents (73.0%) followed news about heat waves very or somewhat closely. About 26.6% of the respondents were extremely or very concerned about the effects of heat waves on them personally. The main issues that were of personal concern for respondents during a heat wave were their personal comfort (60.7%), their garden (48.7%), and sleeping well (47.6%). Overall, respondents were more concerned about the impacts of heat waves to the society than on themselves. There was a significant association between gender (χ² = 21.2, df = 3, p = 0.000), gross annual household income (p = 0.03) and concern for the societal effects of heat waves. Less than half (43.2%) of the respondents believed that heat waves will extremely or very likely increase in Adelaide according to climate projections. Nearly half (49.3%) believed that the effects of heat waves were already being felt in Adelaide. These findings may inform the reframing and communication strategies for heat waves in Adelaide in the context of climate change. PMID:23343978

Awareness of and attitudes towards heat waves within the context of climate change among a cohort of residents in Adelaide, Australia.

PubMed

Akompab, Derick A; Bi, Peng; Williams, Susan; Grant, Janet; Walker, Iain A; Augoustinos, Martha

2012-12-20

Heat waves are a public health concern in Australia and unprecedented heat waves have been recorded in Adelaide over recent years. The aim of this study was to examine the perception and attitudes towards heat waves in the context of climate change among a group of residents in Adelaide, an Australian city with a temperate climate. A cross-sectional study was conducted in the summer of 2012 among a sample of 267 residents. The results of the survey found that television (89.9%), radio (71.2%), newspapers (45.3%) were the main sources from which respondents received information about heat waves. The majority of the respondents (73.0%) followed news about heat waves very or somewhat closely. About 26.6% of the respondents were extremely or very concerned about the effects of heat waves on them personally. The main issues that were of personal concern for respondents during a heat wave were their personal comfort (60.7%), their garden (48.7%), and sleeping well (47.6%). Overall, respondents were more concerned about the impacts of heat waves to the society than on themselves. There was a significant association between gender (χ² = 21.2, df = 3, p = 0.000), gross annual household income (p = 0.03) and concern for the societal effects of heat waves. Less than half (43.2%) of the respondents believed that heat waves will extremely or very likely increase in Adelaide according to climate projections. Nearly half (49.3%) believed that the effects of heat waves were already being felt in Adelaide. These findings may inform the reframing and communication strategies for heat waves in Adelaide in the context of climate change.

Time-series Analysis of Heat Waves and Emergency Department Visits in Atlanta, 1993 to 2012.

PubMed

Chen, Tianqi; Sarnat, Stefanie E; Grundstein, Andrew J; Winquist, Andrea; Chang, Howard H

2017-05-31

Heat waves are extreme weather events that have been associated with adverse health outcomes. However, there is limited knowledge of heat waves' impact on population morbidity, such as emergency department (ED) visits. We investigated associations between heat waves and ED visits for 17 outcomes in Atlanta over a 20-year period, 1993-2012. Associations were estimated using Poisson log-linear models controlling for continuous air temperature, dew-point temperature, day of week, holidays, and time trends. We defined heat waves as periods of consecutive days with temperatures beyond the 98th percentile of the temperature distribution over the period from 1945-2012. We considered six heat wave definitions using maximum, minimum, and average air temperatures and apparent temperatures. Associations by heat wave characteristics were examined. Among all outcome-heat wave combinations, associations were strongest between ED visits for acute renal failure and heat waves defined by maximum apparent temperature at lag 0 [relative risk (RR) = 1.15; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.03-1.29], ED visits for ischemic stroke and heat waves defined by minimum temperature at lag 0 (RR = 1.09; 95% CI: 1.02-1.17), and ED visits for intestinal infection and heat waves defined by average temperature at lag 1 (RR = 1.10; 95% CI: 1.00-1.21). ED visits for all internal causes were associated with heat waves defined by maximum temperature at lag 1 (RR = 1.02; 95% CI: 1.00, 1.04). Heat waves can confer additional risks of ED visits beyond those of daily air temperature, even in a region with high air-conditioning prevalence. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP44.

On the Dynamics of Austral Heat Waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Risbey, James S.; O'Kane, Terence J.; Monselesan, Didier P.; Franzke, Christian L. E.; Horenko, Illia

2018-01-01

This work examines summer heat wave events in four different regions of Australia (southwest, central, southeast, and northeast) to assess similarities and differences in the circulations that precede, accompany, and follow the heat wave events. A series of circulation composites are constructed for days from 10 days prior to 5 days following onset of each heat wave event. The composites of geopotential height anomalies and wave activity flux vectors show that heat waves in southwest and southeast Australia are preceded by coherent wave train structures in the Indian Ocean region, accompanied by blocking in the Australian region (as an amplified node of the wave train structure), and followed by coherent responses of wave train patterns in the Pacific and South America regions. The heat wave blocking high is maintained by convergence of wave activity in a well-defined wave channel. The concentration of wave activity in the block is aided by the formation of a subtropical jet branch and wave barrier on the equatorward side of the block. Heat waves in central and northeast Australia show similar wave train life cycle responses, but with a proximate ridge in the midtroposphere and a trough in the nearby waveguide region. Heat waves in Australia can be viewed as an element of successive expression of the planetary waveguide modes in the Southern Hemisphere and serve as signifiers of organized, active phases of these modes.

[Impact of heat waves on non-accidental deaths in Jinan, China].

PubMed

Zhang, J; Liu, S Q; Zhou, L; Gong, S P; Liu, Y L; Zhang, Y; Zhang, J

2016-02-20

To assess the impact of heat waves on non-accidental deaths, and to investigate the influencing factors for deaths caused by heat waves in Jinan, China. Daily death data and meteorological data for summer days with or without heat waves in Jinan from 2012 to 2014 were collected, and a cross-over analysis was conducted to evaluate the influence of heat waves on non-accidental deaths and deaths caused by other reasons. The univariate and multivariate logistic regression models were used to investigate the influencing factors for deaths caused by heat waves. The risks of non-accidental deaths and deaths caused by circulation system diseases during the days with heat waves were 1.82 times(95% CI: 1.47~2.36) and 1.53 times(95% CI: 1.14~2.07) those during the days without heat waves. The multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that old age(≥75 years)(OR=1.184, 95% CI: 1.068~1.313), low educational level(OR=1.187, 95% CI: 1.064~1.324), and deaths outside hospital(OR=1.105, 95% CI: 1.009~1.210) were associated with the high risk of deaths during the days with heat waves. Heat waves significantly increase the risk of non-accidental deaths and deaths caused by circulation system diseases in Jinan, and the deaths during the days with heat waves are related to age, educational level, and place of death.

More Intense Mega Heat Waves in the Warmer World

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choi, G.; Robinson, D. A.

2017-12-01

In this study, changes in the occurrences of heat waves on the globe since the mid- 20th century and the synoptic characteristics of mega heat waves at regional scales in the warmer climate are examined. The NCEP-NCAR reanalysis surface data show that there have been no obvious linear changes in the heat wave frequencies at the continental scales since the mid-20th century, but amplified interdecadal variations led to unprecedented intense heat waves in the recent decades at the regional scales. Such mega heat waves have been more frequently observed in the poleward subtropical climate belts as well as in the interior region of continents. According to the analyses of upper tropospheric data, the occurrences of more intense mega heat waves since the late 20th century may be associated with the expansion of subtropical high pressures. These results suggest that populous cities near the subtropical climate zones should provide proactive mega heat wave warning systems for residents due to their vulnerability to the sudden attack of human lives harvest by mega heat waves in the warmer 21st century.

Time-series Analysis of Heat Waves and Emergency Department Visits in Atlanta, 1993 to 2012

PubMed Central

Chen, Tianqi; Sarnat, Stefanie E.; Grundstein, Andrew J.; Winquist, Andrea

2017-01-01

Background: Heat waves are extreme weather events that have been associated with adverse health outcomes. However, there is limited knowledge of heat waves’ impact on population morbidity, such as emergency department (ED) visits. Objectives: We investigated associations between heat waves and ED visits for 17 outcomes in Atlanta over a 20-year period, 1993–2012. Methods: Associations were estimated using Poisson log-linear models controlling for continuous air temperature, dew-point temperature, day of week, holidays, and time trends. We defined heat waves as periods of ≥2 consecutive days with temperatures beyond the 98th percentile of the temperature distribution over the period from 1945–2012. We considered six heat wave definitions using maximum, minimum, and average air temperatures and apparent temperatures. Associations by heat wave characteristics were examined. Results: Among all outcome-heat wave combinations, associations were strongest between ED visits for acute renal failure and heat waves defined by maximum apparent temperature at lag 0 [relative risk (RR) = 1.15; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.03–1.29], ED visits for ischemic stroke and heat waves defined by minimum temperature at lag 0 (RR = 1.09; 95% CI: 1.02–1.17), and ED visits for intestinal infection and heat waves defined by average temperature at lag 1 (RR = 1.10; 95% CI: 1.00–1.21). ED visits for all internal causes were associated with heat waves defined by maximum temperature at lag 1 (RR = 1.02; 95% CI: 1.00, 1.04). Conclusions: Heat waves can confer additional risks of ED visits beyond those of daily air temperature, even in a region with high air-conditioning prevalence. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP44 PMID:28599264

Effects of heat waves on mortality: effect modification and confounding by air pollutants.

PubMed

Analitis, Antonis; Michelozzi, Paola; D'Ippoliti, Daniela; De'Donato, Francesca; Menne, Bettina; Matthies, Franziska; Atkinson, Richard W; Iñiguez, Carmen; Basagaña, Xavier; Schneider, Alexandra; Lefranc, Agnès; Paldy, Anna; Bisanti, Luigi; Katsouyanni, Klea

2014-01-01

Heat waves and air pollution are both associated with increased mortality. Their joint effects are less well understood. We explored the role of air pollution in modifying the effects of heat waves on mortality, within the EuroHEAT project. Daily mortality, meteorologic, and air pollution data from nine European cities for the years 1990-2004 were assembled. We defined heat waves by taking both intensity and duration into account. The city-specific effects of heat wave episodes were estimated using generalized estimating equation models, adjusting for potential confounders with and without inclusion of air pollutants (particles, ozone, nitrogen dioxide, sulphur dioxide, carbon monoxide). To investigate effect modification, we introduced an interaction term between heat waves and each single pollutant in the models. Random effects meta-analysis was used to summarize the city-specific results. The increase in the number of daily deaths during heat wave episodes was 54% higher on high ozone days compared with low, among people age 75-84 years. The heat wave effect on high PM10 days was increased by 36% and 106% in the 75-84 year and 85+ year age groups, respectively. A similar pattern was observed for effects on cardiovascular mortality. Effect modification was less evident for respiratory mortality, although the heat wave effect itself was greater for this cause of death. The heat wave effect was smaller (15-30%) after adjustment for ozone or PM10. The heat wave effect on mortality was larger during high ozone or high PM10 days. When assessing the effect of heat waves on mortality, lack of adjustment for ozone and especially PM10 overestimates effect parameters. This bias has implications for public health policy.

Determining Heat Waves from Observations and COSMO-CLM Simulations in Istanbul

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuruk, Cemre; Unal, Yurdanur; Irem Bilgen, Simge; Topcu, Sema; Mentes, Sibel

2016-04-01

Climate change has crucial effects on cities and especially for informal settlements, urban poor and other vulnerable groups by influencing human health, assets and livelihoods. These impacts directly result from the variations in temperature and precipitation, and emergence of heat waves, droughts, floods and fires (IPCC, 2014). Summertime episodes with extremely high air temperatures which last for several days or longer are addressed to as heat waves and affect the weather and climate in the globe. The aim of this study is to analyze the occurrence of heat waves in terms of quantity, duration and frequency and also to evaluate the accuracy of the COSMO-CLM (CCLM) model coupled with MPI-ESM-LR in reproducing the characteristics of heat waves in Istanbul. The summer maximum temperatures of six Turkish State Meteorological Service (TSMS) stations are selected between 1960 and 2013 to estimate the characteristics of heat waves in Istanbul. We define the heat wave if the maximum temperatures exceed a threshold value for at least three consecutive days. The threshold value is determined as 30.5 °C from the 90th percentile of all six station's observations. Then it is used in the detection of the hot days, heat waves and their durations. The results show that not only the number of heat waves but also duration of heat waves increase towards the end of the study period. Especially, a significant increase in heat wave events is evident after 1990s. An example of this situation is observed in a Kilyos station located northern part of the city. Kilyos experiences only one heat wave in the beginning of 1970s whereas the number of heat waves increases in years and reaches to the maximum value of 5 in 2000. Furthermore, Kartal as an urban area in the Asian side of the city, exhibits highest heat wave duration with 18 consecutive days in 1998. In addition to station data analyses, the local climate of Istanbul and its vicinity is simulated by CCLM model with approximately 3 km resolution between 1970 and 2005 and the verifications of the heat waves are carried out in terms of the intensity, duration and spatial extent. It is found that urban heat island increases the frequency of hot-days at the urbanized areas of Istanbul. This work is supported by TUBITAK project, number 114Y047. Keywords: Heat waves, Istanbul, local climate, COSMO-CLM, urban heat island

Impact of Heat Wave Definitions on the Added Effect of Heat Waves on Cardiovascular Mortality in Beijing, China.

PubMed

Dong, Wentan; Zeng, Qiang; Ma, Yue; Li, Guoxing; Pan, Xiaochuan

2016-09-21

Heat waves are associated with increased mortality, however, few studies have examined the added effect of heat waves. Moreover, there is limited evidence for the influence of different heat wave definitions (HWs) on cardiovascular mortality in Beijing, the capital of China. The aim of this study was to find the best HW definitions for cardiovascular mortality, and we examined the effect modification by an individual characteristic on cardiovascular mortality in Beijing, a typical northern city in China. We applied a Poisson generalized additive approach to estimate the differences in cardiovascular mortality during heat waves (using 12 HWs) compared with non-heat-wave days in Beijing from 2006 to 2009. We also validated the model fit by checking the residuals to ensure that the autocorrelation was successfully removed. In addition, the effect modifications by individual characteristics were explored in different HWs. Our results showed that the associations between heat waves and cardiovascular mortality differed from different HWs. HWs using the 93th percentile of the daily average temperature (27.7 °C) and a duration ≥5 days had the greatest risk, with an increase of 18% (95% confidence interval (CI): 6%, 31%) in the overall population, 24% (95% CI: 10%, 39%) in an older group (ages ≥65 years), and 22% (95% CI: 3%, 44%) in a female group. The added effect of heat waves was apparent after 5 consecutive heat wave days for the overall population and the older group. Females and the elderly were at higher risk than males and younger subjects (ages <65 years). Our findings suggest that heat wave definitions play a significant role in the relationship between heat wave and cardiovascular mortality. Using a suitable definition may have implications for designing local heat early warning systems and protecting the susceptible populations during heat waves.

MM-wave cyclotron auto-resonance maser for plasma heating

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ceccuzzi, S.; Dattoli, G.; Di Palma, E.; Doria, A.; Gallerano, G. P.; Giovenale, E.; Mirizzi, F.; Spassovsky, I.; Ravera, G. L.; Surrenti, V.; Tuccillo, A. A.

2014-02-01

Heating and Current Drive systems are of outstanding relevance in fusion plasmas, magnetically confined in tokamak devices, as they provide the tools to reach, sustain and control burning conditions. Heating systems based on the electron cyclotron resonance (ECRH) have been extensively exploited on past and present machines DEMO, and the future reactor will require high frequencies. Therefore, high power (≥1MW) RF sources with output frequency in the 200 - 300 GHz range would be necessary. A promising source is the so called Cyclotron Auto-Resonance Maser (CARM). Preliminary results of the conceptual design of a CARM device for plasma heating, carried out at ENEA-Frascati will be presented together with the planned R&D development.

The effect of heat waves, elevated [CO2 ] and low soil water availability on northern red oak (Quercus rubra L.) seedlings.

PubMed

Bauweraerts, Ingvar; Wertin, Timothy M; Ameye, Maarten; McGuire, Mary Anne; Teskey, Robert O; Steppe, Kathy

2013-02-01

The frequency and intensity of heat waves are predicted to increase. This study investigates whether heat waves would have the same impact as a constant increase in temperature with the same heat sum, and whether there would be any interactive effects of elevated [CO2 ] and soil moisture content. We grew Quercus rubra seedlings in treatment chambers maintained at either ambient or elevated [CO2 ] (380 or 700 μmol CO2 mol(-1) ) with temperature treatments of ambient, ambient +3 °C, moderate heat wave (+6 °C every other week) or severe heat wave (+12 °C every fourth week) temperatures. Averaged over a 4-week period, and the entire growing season, the three elevated temperature treatments had the same average temperature and heat sum. Half the seedlings were watered to a soil water content near field capacity, half to about 50% of this value. Foliar gas exchange measurements were performed morning and afternoon (9:00 and 15:00 hours) before, during and after an applied heat wave in August 2010. Biomass accumulation was measured after five heat wave cycles. Under ambient [CO2 ] and well-watered conditions, biomass accumulation was highest in the +3 °C treatment, intermediate in the +6 °C heat wave and lowest in the +12 °C heat wave treatment. This response was mitigated by elevated [CO2 ]. Low soil moisture significantly decreased net photosynthesis (Anet ) and biomass in all [CO2 ] and temperature treatments. The +12 °C heat wave reduced afternoon Anet by 23% in ambient [CO2 ]. Although this reduction was relatively greater under elevated [CO2 ], Anet values during this heat wave were still 34% higher than under ambient [CO2 ]. We concluded that heat waves affected biomass growth differently than the same amount of heat applied uniformly over the growing season, and that the plant response to heat waves also depends on [CO2 ] and soil moisture conditions. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Assessing climate change over the Marche Region (central Italy) from 1961 to 2100: projected changes in mean temperature and future heat waves characterization (with a statistical evaluation of RCMs local performance)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sangelantoni, Lorenzo; Coluccelli, Alessandro; Russo, Aniello

2014-05-01

Marche region (central Italy, facing the Adriatic Sea) climate dynamics are connected to the Mediterranean basin, identified as one of the most sensitive areas to ongoing climate change. Taken into account difficulties to carry out an overarching assessment over the heterogeneous Mediterranean climate-change issues frame, we opted toward a consistent regional bordered study. Projected changes in mean seasonal temperature, with an introductory multi-statistical model performance evaluation and a future heat waves intensity and duration characterization, are here presented. Multi-model projections over Marche Region, on daily mean, minimum and maximum temperature, have been extracted from the outputs of a set of 7 Regional Climate Models (RCMs) over Europe run by several research Institutes participating to the EU ENSEMBLE project. These climate simulations from 1961 to 2100 refer to the boundary conditions of the IPCC A1B emission scenario, and have a horizontal resolution of 25km × 25km. Furthermore, two RCMs outputs from Med-CORDEX project, with a higher horizontal resolution (12km x 12km) and boundary conditions provided by the new Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5, are considered. Observed daily mean, minimum and maximum temperature over Marche region domain have been extracted from E-OBS gridded data set (Version 9.0) referring to the period 1970-2004. This twofold work firstly provides a concise statistical summary of how well employed RCMs reproduce observed (1970-2004) mean temperature over Marche region in term of correlation, root-mean-square difference, and ratio of their variances, graphically displayed on a 2D-Taylor diagram. This multi-statistical model performance evaluation easily allows: - to compare the agreement with observation of the 9 individual RCMs - to compare RCMs with different horizontal resolution (12 km and 25 km) - to evaluate the improvement provided by the RCMs ensemble. Results indicate that the 9 RCMs ensemble provides the statistically best reproduction of the observed interannual mean temperature distribution. Secondly, we assessed projected seasonal ensemble average change in mean temperature referring to the ending 21st century obtained by comparison between 2071-2100 and 1961-1990 time slice modeled mean value over Marche region. Results emphasize summer as the season most affected by projected temperature increase (+4.5°C / +5.0°C), followed by spring season temperature increase (+3.5°C / +4.0°C). Finally, considering that some of the most severe health hazards arise from multi-day heat-waves, associated with both hot day-time and warm night-time temperatures, we assessed modeled trend (1961-2100) of the heat waves intensity and duration: intensity through the temporal evolution of the summer (J J A months) maximum and minimum temperature 90th percentile, heat waves length by temporal evolution of two detected threshold-based indices (annual maximum number of consecutive days characterized by Tmin >= 24°C and annual maximum number of consecutive days characterized by Tmax > = 32°C). Same analysis for both coastal and mountainous areas has been conducted. Future research plans aim to involve ensemble RCMs simulation, processed with bias correction methods, in forcing climate change impacts models, to provide a detailed regional heat waves impacts scenario, mainly over agriculture and health sectors.

Distortion of Digital Image Correlation (DIC) Displacements and Strains from Heat Waves

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jones, E. M. C.; Reu, P. L.

“Heat waves” is a colloquial term used to describe convective currents in air formed when different objects in an area are at different temperatures. In the context of Digital Image Correlation (DIC) and other optical-based image processing techniques, imaging an object of interest through heat waves can significantly distort the apparent location and shape of the object. We present that there are many potential heat sources in DIC experiments, including but not limited to lights, cameras, hot ovens, and sunlight, yet error caused by heat waves is often overlooked. This paper first briefly presents three practical situations in which heatmore » waves contributed significant error to DIC measurements to motivate the investigation of heat waves in more detail. Then the theoretical background of how light is refracted through heat waves is presented, and the effects of heat waves on displacements and strains computed from DIC are characterized in detail. Finally, different filtering methods are investigated to reduce the displacement and strain errors caused by imaging through heat waves. The overarching conclusions from this work are that errors caused by heat waves are significantly higher than typical noise floors for DIC measurements, and that the errors are difficult to filter because the temporal and spatial frequencies of the errors are in the same range as those of typical signals of interest. In conclusion, eliminating or mitigating the effects of heat sources in a DIC experiment is the best solution to minimizing errors caused by heat waves.« less

Distortion of Digital Image Correlation (DIC) Displacements and Strains from Heat Waves

DOE PAGES

Jones, E. M. C.; Reu, P. L.

2017-11-28

“Heat waves” is a colloquial term used to describe convective currents in air formed when different objects in an area are at different temperatures. In the context of Digital Image Correlation (DIC) and other optical-based image processing techniques, imaging an object of interest through heat waves can significantly distort the apparent location and shape of the object. We present that there are many potential heat sources in DIC experiments, including but not limited to lights, cameras, hot ovens, and sunlight, yet error caused by heat waves is often overlooked. This paper first briefly presents three practical situations in which heatmore » waves contributed significant error to DIC measurements to motivate the investigation of heat waves in more detail. Then the theoretical background of how light is refracted through heat waves is presented, and the effects of heat waves on displacements and strains computed from DIC are characterized in detail. Finally, different filtering methods are investigated to reduce the displacement and strain errors caused by imaging through heat waves. The overarching conclusions from this work are that errors caused by heat waves are significantly higher than typical noise floors for DIC measurements, and that the errors are difficult to filter because the temporal and spatial frequencies of the errors are in the same range as those of typical signals of interest. In conclusion, eliminating or mitigating the effects of heat sources in a DIC experiment is the best solution to minimizing errors caused by heat waves.« less

Attributing anthropogenic impact on regional heat wave events using CAM5 model large ensemble simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lo, S. H.; Chen, C. T.

2017-12-01

Extreme heat waves have serious impacts on society. It was argued that the anthropogenic forcing might substantially increase the risk of extreme heat wave events (e.g. over western Europe in 2003 and over Russia in 2010). However, the regional dependence of such anthropogenic impact and the sensitivity of the attributed risk to the definition of heat wave still require further studies. In our research framework, the change in the frequency and severity of a heat wave event under current conditions is calculated and compared with the probability and magnitude of the event if the effects of particular external forcing, such as due to human influence, had been absent. In our research, we use the CAM5 large ensemble simulation from the CLIVAR C20C+ Detection and Attribution project (http://portal.nersc.gov/c20c/main.html, Folland et al. 2014) to detect the heat wave events occurred in both historical all forcing run and natural forcing only run. The heat wave events are identified by partial duration series method (Huth et al., 2000). We test the sensitivity of heat wave thresholds from daily maximum temperature (Tmax) in warm season (from May to September) between 1959 and 2013. We consider the anthropogenic effect on the later period (2000-2013) when the warming due to human impact is more evident. Using Taiwan and surrounding area as our preliminary research target, We found the anthropogenic effect will increase the heat wave day per year from 30 days to 75 days and make the mean starting(ending) day for heat waves events about 15-30 days earlier(later). Using the Fraction of Attribution Risk analysis to estimate the risk of frequency of heat wave day, our results show the anthropogenic forcing very likely increase the heat wave days over Taiwan by more than 50%. Further regional differences and sensitivity of the attributed risk to the definition of heat wave will be compared and discussed.

Modeling of N2 and O optical emissions for ionosphere HF powerful heating experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sergienko, T.; Gustavsson, B.

Analyses of experiments of F region ionosphere modification by HF powerful radio waves show that optical observations are very useful tools for diagnosing of the interaction of the probing radio wave with the ionospheric plasma Hitherto the emissions usually measured in the heating experiment have been the 630 0 nm and the 557 7 nm lines of atomic oxygen Other emissions for instance O 844 8 nm and N2 427 8 nm have been measured episodically in only a few experiments although the very rich optical spectrum of molecular nitrogen potentially involves important information about ionospheric plasma in the heated region This study addresses the modeling of optical emissions from the O and the N2 triplet states first positive second positive Vegard-Kaplan infrared afterglow and Wu-Benesch band systems excited under a condition of the ionosphere heating experiment The auroral triplet state population distribution model was modified for the ionosphere heating conditions by using the different electron distribution functions suggested by Mishin et al 2000 2003 and Gustavsson at al 2004 2005 Modeling results are discussed from the point of view of efficiency of measurements of the N2 emissions in future experiments

Extension of electron cyclotron heating at ASDEX Upgrade with respect to high density operation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schubert, Martin; Stober, Jörg; Herrmann, Albrecht; Kasparek, Walter; Leuterer, Fritz; Monaco, Francesco; Petzold, Bernhard; Plaum, Burkhard; Vorbrugg, Stefan; Wagner, Dietmar; Zohm, Hartmut

2017-10-01

The ASDEX Upgrade electron cyclotron resonance heating operates at 105 GHz and 140 GHz with flexible launching geometry and polarization. In 2016 four Gyrotrons with 10 sec pulse length and output power close to 1 MW per unit were available. The system is presently being extended to eight similar units in total. High heating power and high plasma density operation will be a part of the future ASDEX Upgrade experiment program. For the electron cyclotron resonance heating, an O-2 mode scheme is proposed, which is compatible with the expected high plasma densities. It may, however, suffer from incomplete single-pass absorption. The situation can be improved significantly by installing holographic mirrors on the inner column, which allow for a second pass of the unabsorbed fraction of the millimetre wave beam. Since the beam path in the plasma is subject to refraction, the beam position on the holographic mirror has to be controlled. Thermocouples built into the mirror surface are used for this purpose. As a protective measure, the tiles of the heat shield on the inner column were modified in order to increase the shielding against unabsorbed millimetre wave power.

The impact of heat waves on surface urban heat island and local economy in Cluj-Napoca city, Romania

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herbel, Ioana; Croitoru, Adina-Eliza; Rus, Adina Viorica; Roşca, Cristina Florina; Harpa, Gabriela Victoria; Ciupertea, Antoniu-Flavius; Rus, Ionuţ

2017-07-01

The association between heat waves and the urban heat island effect can increase the impact on environment and society inducing biophysical hazards. Heat stress and their associated public health problems are among the most frequent. This paper explores the heat waves impact on surface urban heat island and on the local economy loss during three heat periods in Cluj-Napoca city in the summer of 2015. The heat wave events were identified based on daily maximum temperature, and they were divided into three classes considering the intensity threshold: moderate heat waves (daily maximum temperature exceeding the 90th percentile), severe heat waves (daily maximum temperature over the 95th percentile), and extremely severe heat waves (daily maximum temperature exceeding the 98th percentile). The minimum length of an event was of minimum three consecutive days. The surface urban heat island was detected based on land surface temperature derived from Landsat 8 thermal infrared data, while the economic impact was estimated based on data on work force structure and work productivity in Cluj-Napoca derived from the data released by Eurostat, National Bank of Romania, and National Institute of Statistics. The results indicate that the intensity and spatial extension of surface urban heat island could be governed by the magnitude of the heat wave event, but due to the low number of satellite images available, we should consider this information only as preliminary results. Thermal infrared remote sensing has proven to be a very efficient method to study surface urban heat island, due to the fact that the synoptic conditions associated with heat wave events usually favor cloud free image. The resolution of the OLI_TIRS sensor provided good results for a mid-extension city, but the low revisiting time is still a drawback. The potential economic loss was calculated for the working days during heat waves and the estimated loss reached more than 2.5 mil. EUR for each heat wave day at city scale, cumulating more than 38 mil. EUR for the three cases considered.

Heat Wave Changes in the Eastern Mediterranean since 1960

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuglitsch, Franz G.; Toreti, Andrea; Xoplaki, Elena; Della-Marta, Paul M.; Zerefos, Christos S.; Türkes, Murat; Luterbacher, Jürg

2010-05-01

Heat waves have discernible impacts on mortality and morbidity, infrastructure, agricultural resources, the retail industry, ecosystem and tourism and consequently affect human societies. A new definition of socially relevant heat waves is presented and applied to new data sets of high-quality homogenized daily maximum and minimum summer air temperature series from 246 stations in the eastern Mediterranean region (including Albania, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Greece, Israel, Romania, Serbia, Slovenia, Turkey). Changes in heat wave number, length and intensity between 1960 and 2006 are quantified. Daily temperature homogeneity analysis suggest that many instrumental measurements in the 1960s are warm-biased, correcting for these biases regionally averaged heat wave trends are up to 8% higher. We find significant changes across the western Balkans, southwestern and western Turkey, and along the southern Black Sea coastline. Since the 1960s, the mean heat wave intensity, heat wave length and heat wave number across the eastern Mediterranean region have increased by a factor 7.6 ±1.3, 7.5 ±1.3 and 6.2 ±1.1, respectively. These findings suggest that the heat wave increase in this region is higher than previously reported.

Heat wave hazard classification and risk assessment using artificial intelligence fuzzy logic.

PubMed

Keramitsoglou, Iphigenia; Kiranoudis, Chris T; Maiheu, Bino; De Ridder, Koen; Daglis, Ioannis A; Manunta, Paolo; Paganini, Marc

2013-10-01

The average summer temperatures as well as the frequency and intensity of hot days and heat waves are expected to increase due to climate change. Motivated by this consequence, we propose a methodology to evaluate the monthly heat wave hazard and risk and its spatial distribution within large cities. A simple urban climate model with assimilated satellite-derived land surface temperature images was used to generate a historic database of urban air temperature fields. Heat wave hazard was then estimated from the analysis of these hourly air temperatures distributed at a 1-km grid over Athens, Greece, by identifying the areas that are more likely to suffer higher temperatures in the case of a heat wave event. Innovation lies in the artificial intelligence fuzzy logic model that was used to classify the heat waves from mild to extreme by taking into consideration their duration, intensity and time of occurrence. The monthly hazard was subsequently estimated as the cumulative effect from the individual heat waves that occurred at each grid cell during a month. Finally, monthly heat wave risk maps were produced integrating geospatial information on the population vulnerability to heat waves calculated from socio-economic variables.

Testing the time-scale dependence of delayed interactions: A heat wave during the egg stage shapes how a pesticide interacts with a successive heat wave in the larval stage.

PubMed

Janssens, Lizanne; Tüzün, Nedim; Stoks, Robby

2017-11-01

Under global change organisms are exposed to multiple, potentially interacting stressors. Especially interactions between successive stressors are poorly understood and recently suggested to depend on their timing of exposure. We particularly need studies assessing the impact of exposure to relevant stressors at various life stages and how these interact. We investigated the single and combined impacts of a heat wave (mild [25 °C] and extreme [30 °C]) during the egg stage, followed by successive exposure to esfenvalerate (ESF) and a heat wave during the larval stage in damselflies. Each stressor caused mortality. The egg heat wave and larval ESF exposure had delayed effects on survival, growth and lipid peroxidation (MDA). This resulted in deviations from the prediction that stressors separated by a long time interval would not interact: the egg heat wave modulated the interaction between the stressors in the larval stage. Firstly, ESF caused delayed mortality only in larvae that had been exposed to the extreme egg heat wave and this strongly depended upon the larval heat wave treatment. Secondly, ESF only increased MDA in larvae not exposed to the egg heat wave. We found little support for the prediction that when there is limited time between stressors, synergistic interactions should occur. The intermediate ESF concentration only caused delayed mortality when combined with the larval heat wave, and the lowest ESF concentrations only increased oxidative damage when followed by the mild larval heat wave. Survival selection mitigated the interaction patterns between successive stressors that are individually lethal, and therefore should be included in a predictive framework for the time-scale dependence of the outcome of multistressor studies with pollutants. The egg heat wave shaping the interaction pattern between successive pesticide exposure and a larval heat wave highlights the connectivity between the concepts of 'heat-induced pesticide sensitivity' and 'pesticide-induced heat sensitivity'. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Heat Waves and Climate Change: Applying the Health Belief Model to Identify Predictors of Risk Perception and Adaptive Behaviours in Adelaide, Australia

PubMed Central

Akompab, Derick A.; Bi, Peng; Williams, Susan; Grant, Janet; Walker, Iain A.; Augoustinos, Martha

2013-01-01

Heat waves are considered a health risk and they are likely to increase in frequency, intensity and duration as a consequence of climate change. The effects of heat waves on human health could be reduced if individuals recognise the risks and adopt healthy behaviours during a heat wave. The purpose of this study was to determine the predictors of risk perception using a heat wave scenario and identify the constructs of the health belief model that could predict adaptive behaviours during a heat wave. A cross-sectional study was conducted during the summer of 2012 among a sample of persons aged between 30 to 69 years in Adelaide. Participants’ perceptions were assessed using the health belief model as a conceptual frame. Their knowledge about heat waves and adaptive behaviours during heat waves was also assessed. Logistic regression analyses were performed to determine the predictors of risk perception to a heat wave scenario and adaptive behaviours during a heat wave. Of the 267 participants, about half (50.9%) had a high risk perception to heat waves while 82.8% had good adaptive behaviours during a heat wave. Multivariate models found that age was a significant predictor of risk perception. In addition, participants who were married (OR = 0.21; 95% CI, 0.07–0.62), who earned a gross annual household income of ≥$60,000 (OR = 0.41; 95% CI, 0.17–0.94) and without a fan (OR = 0.29; 95% CI, 0.11–0.79) were less likely to have a high risk perception to heat waves. Those who were living with others (OR = 2.87; 95% CI, 1.19–6.90) were more likely to have a high risk perception to heat waves. On the other hand, participants with a high perceived benefit (OR = 2.14; 95% CI, 1.00–4.58), a high “cues to action” (OR = 3.71; 95% CI, 1.63–8.43), who had additional training or education after high school (OR = 2.65; 95% CI, 1.25–5.58) and who earned a gross annual household income of ≥$60,000 (OR = 2.66; 95% CI, 1.07–6.56) were more likely to have good adaptive behaviours during a heat wave. The health belief model could be useful to guide the design and implementation of interventions to promote adaptive behaviours during heat waves. PMID:23759952

A comparative analysis of heat waves and associated mortality in St. Louis, Missouri--1980 and 1995.

PubMed

Smoyer, K E

1998-08-01

This research investigates heat-related mortality during the 1980 and 1995 heat waves in St. Louis, Missouri. St. Louis has a long history of extreme summer weather, and heat-related mortality is a public health concern. Heat waves are defined as days with apparent temperatures exceeding 40.6 degrees C (105 degrees F). The study uses a multivariate analysis to investigate the relationship between mortality and heat wave intensity, duration, and timing within the summer season. The heat wave of 1980 was more severe and had higher associated mortality than that of 1995. To learn if changing population characteristics, in addition to weather conditions, contributed to this difference, changes in population vulnerability between 1980 and 1995 are evaluated under simulated heat wave conditions. The findings show that St. Louis remains at risk of heat wave mortality. In addition, there is evidence that vulnerability has increased despite increased air-conditioning penetration and public health interventions.

A Simulated Heat Wave Has Diverse Effects on Immune Function and Oxidative Physiology in the Corn Snake (Pantherophis guttatus).

PubMed

Stahlschmidt, Z R; French, S S; Ahn, A; Webb, A; Butler, M W

Animals will continue to encounter increasingly warm environments, including more frequent and intense heat waves. Yet the physiological consequences of heat waves remain equivocal, potentially because of variation in adaptive plasticity (reversible acclimation) and/or aspects of experimental design. Thus, we measured a suite of physiological variables in the corn snake (Pantherophis guttatus) after exposure to field-parameterized, fluctuating temperature regimes (moderate temperature and heat wave treatments) to address two hypotheses: (1) a heat wave causes physiological stress, and (2) thermal performance of immune function exhibits adaptive plasticity in response to a heat wave. We found little support for our first hypothesis because a simulated heat wave had a negative effect on body mass, but it also reduced oxidative damage and did not affect peak performance of three immune metrics. Likewise, we found only partial support for our second hypothesis. After exposure to a simulated heat wave, P. guttatus exhibited greater performance breadth and reduced temperature specialization (the standardized difference between peak performance and performance breadth) for only one of three immune metrics and did so in a sex-dependent manner. Further, a simulated heat wave did not elicit greater performance of any immune metric at higher temperatures. Yet a heat wave likely reduced innate immune function in P. guttatus because each metric of innate immune performance in this species (as in most vertebrates) was lower at elevated temperatures. Together with previous research, our study indicates that a heat wave may have complex, modest, and even positive physiological effects in some taxa.

An analysis of heat wave trends using heat index in East Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suparta, W.; Yatim, A. N. M.

2017-05-01

This paper aimed to investigate the heat wave trends in East Malaysia based on the National Weather Services (NWS) Heat Index. The heat index was calculated by using mean temperature and mean relative humidity on monthly basis for 5 meteorological stations in East Malaysia during the period 2008 to 2010. The trends for heat wave were estimated from Heat Index based on the least square regression analysis at each station level. Results showed that the heat wave trends are increasing at all stations. The highest heat index was occurred in Sandakan on July 2010 with heat index 35°C while the lowest heat index happened at Kuching in January 2009 with 27.3°C. From the heat wave observed, East Malaysia is still in caution categories or normal condition (27°C-32°C) and the extreme caution (32°C-41°C) was observed during southwest monsoon (May-July). The safety condition of heat waves in East Malaysia is possibly due to weak to moderate El Nino occurred during the period of observation.

Satellite Observations of Stratospheric Gravity Waves Associated With the Intensification of Tropical Cyclones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoffmann, Lars; Wu, Xue; Alexander, M. Joan

2018-02-01

Forecasting the intensity of tropical cyclones is a challenging problem. Rapid intensification is often preceded by the formation of "hot towers" near the eyewall. Driven by strong release of latent heat, hot towers are high-reaching tropical cumulonimbus clouds that penetrate the tropopause. Hot towers are a potentially important source of stratospheric gravity waves. Using 13.5 years (2002-2016) of Atmospheric Infrared Sounder observations of stratospheric gravity waves and tropical cyclone data from the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship, we found empirical evidence that stratospheric gravity wave activity is associated with the intensification of tropical cyclones. The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder and International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship data showed that strong gravity wave events occurred about twice as often for tropical cyclone intensification compared to storm weakening. Observations of stratospheric gravity waves, which are not affected by obscuring tropospheric clouds, may become an important future indicator of storm intensification.

Compounded effects of heat waves and droughts over the Western Electricity Grid: spatio-temporal scales of impacts and predictability toward mitigation and adaptation.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Voisin, N.; Kintner-Meyer, M.; Skaggs, R.; Xie, Y.; Wu, D.; Nguyen, T. B.; Fu, T.; Zhou, T.

2016-12-01

Heat waves and droughts are projected to be more frequent and intense. We have seen in the past the effects of each of those extreme climate events on electricity demand and constrained electricity generation, challenging power system operations. Our aim here is to understand the compounding effects under historical conditions. We present a benchmark of Western US grid performance under 55 years of historical climate, and including droughts, using 2010-level of water demand and water management infrastructure, and 2010-level of electricity grid infrastructure and operations. We leverage CMIP5 historical hydrology simulations and force a large scale river routing- reservoir model with 2010-level sectoral water demands. The regulated flow at each water-dependent generating plants is processed to adjust water-dependent electricity generation parameterization in a production cost model, that represents 2010-level power system operations with hourly energy demand of 2010. The resulting benchmark includes a risk distribution of several grid performance metrics (unserved energy, production cost, carbon emission) as a function of inter-annual variability in regional water availability and predictability using large scale climate oscillations. In the second part of the presentation, we describe an approach to map historical heat waves onto this benchmark grid performance using a building energy demand model. The impact of the heat waves, combined with the impact of droughts, is explored at multiple scales to understand the compounding effects. Vulnerabilities of the power generation and transmission systems are highlighted to guide future adaptation.

Trend analysis of regional heat wave warning using RegCM simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pongracz, R.; Bartholy, J.; Bartha, E. B.; Torek, O.; Torma, Cs.

2010-09-01

Heat wave events are important temperature-related climatological extremes due to their impacts on human health. In the future, they are very likely to occur more frequently and more intensely not only in the Carpathian Basin, but in most regions of the world because of global warming. In order to develop adaptation and mitigation strategies on local scale, it is essential to analyze the projected changes related to heat waves. In Hungary, three categories of heat wave warning are applied. They are associated to the daily mean temperature values. (i) Warning category 1 is issued when the daily mean temperature is larger than 25 °C. (ii) Warning category 2 is issued when the daily mean temperature for at least 3 consecutive days is larger than 25 °C. (iii) Warning category 3 is issued when the daily mean temperature for at least 3 consecutive days is larger than 27 °C. In this poster, frequency of these conditions are analyzed using regional climate model experiments of model RegCM with 10-km horizontal resolution adapted at the Department of Meteorology, Eotvos Lorand University in the frame of the CECILIA EU-project. The model RegCM is a 3-dimensional, sigma-coordinate, primitive equation model, and it was originally developed by Giorgi et al. Currently, it is available from the ICTP (International Centre for Theoretical Physics). The initial and lateral boundary conditions of the fine-resolution experiments have been provided by the global climate model ECHAM for the A1B emission scenario for three different time slices (1961-1990, 2021-2050, and 2071-2100).

Heat, heat waves, and out-of-hospital cardiac arrest.

PubMed

Kang, Si-Hyuck; Oh, Il-Young; Heo, Jongbae; Lee, Hyewon; Kim, Jungeun; Lim, Woo-Hyun; Cho, Youngjin; Choi, Eue-Keun; Yi, Seung-Muk; Sang, Do Shin; Kim, Ho; Youn, Tae-Jin; Chae, In-Ho; Oh, Seil

2016-10-15

Cardiac arrest is one of the common presentations of cardiovascular disorders and a leading cause of death. There are limited data on the relationship between out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) and ambient temperatures, specifically extreme heat. This study investigated how heat and heat waves affect the occurrence of OHCA. Seven major cities in Korea with more than 1 million residents were included in this study. A heat wave was defined as a daily mean temperature above the 98th percentile of the yearly distribution for at least two consecutive days. A total of 50,318 OHCAs of presumed cardiac origin were identified from the nationwide emergency medical service database between 2006 and 2013. Ambient temperature and OHCA had a J-shaped relationship with a trough at 28°C. Heat waves were shown to be associated with a 14-% increase in the risk of OHCA. Adverse effects were apparent from the beginning of each heat wave period and slightly increased during its continuation. Excess OHCA events during heat waves occurred between 3PM and 5PM. Subgroup analysis showed that those 65years or older were significantly more susceptible to heat waves. Ambient temperature and OHCA had a J-shaped relationship. The risk of OHCA was significantly increased with heat waves. Excess OHCA events primarily occurred during the afternoon when the temperature was high. We found that the elderly were more susceptible to the deleterious effects of heat waves. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Detection of heat wave using Kalpana-1 VHRR land surface temperature product over India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shah, Dhiraj; Pandya, Mehul R.; Pathak, Vishal N.; Darji, Nikunj P.; Trivedi, Himanshu J.

2016-05-01

Heat Waves can have notable impacts on human mortality, ecosystem, economics and energy supply. The effect of heat wave is much more intense during summer than the other seasons. During the period of April to June, spells of very hot weather occur over certain regions of India and global warming scenario may result in further increases of such temperature anomalies and corresponding heat waves conditions. In this paper, satellite observations have been used to detect the heat wave conditions prevailing over India for the period of May-June 2015. The Kalpana-1 VHRR derived land surface temperature (LST) products have been used in the analysis to detect the heat wave affected regions over India. Results from the analysis shows the detection of heat wave affected pixels over Indian land mass. It can be seen that during the study period the parts of the west India, Indo-gangetic plane, Telangana and part of Vidarbh was under severe heat wave conditions which is also confirmed with Automatic Weather Station (AWS) air temperature observations.

Heat waves according to warm spell duration index in Slovakia during 1901-2016

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bochníček, Oliver; Faško, Pavel; Markovič, Ladislav

2017-04-01

A heat wave is a prolonged period of extremely high temperatures for a particular region. However, there exist no universal definitions for a heat wave as it is relative to a specific area and to a certain time of year. In fact, average temperatures in one region may be considered heat wave conditions in another. For instance, an average day in the Mediterranean would be regarded as heat wave conditions in Northern Europe. We have known that World Meteorological Organization definition of a heatwave which is "when the daily maximum temperature of more than five consecutive days exceeds the average maximum temperature by 5 °C, the normal period being 1961-1990". This rule has been accepted in contribution Heat waves and warm periods in Slovakia (Oliver Bochníček - Pavol Fa\\vsko - Ladislav Markovič) published (presented) in EGU 2016. To move on we have tried another criterion for heat waves evaluation (according to warm spell duration index, WSDI) and period since 1901 (1951) to 2016. Important for many sectors (hydrology, agriculture, transportation and tourism) is, that heat waves have been expected during the whole year and period, that is why it can have various impacts. Heat waves occurrence gave us interesting results especially after the 1990.

The role of spring precipitation deficits on European and North American summer heat wave activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cowan, Tim; Hegerl, Gabi

2017-04-01

Heat waves are relatively short-term climate phenomena with potentially severe societal impacts, particularly on health, agriculture and the natural environment. In water-limited regions, increased heat wave activity over intra-decadal periods is often associated with protracted droughts, as observed over North America's Central and Southern Great Plains in the 1930s and 1950s, highlighting the importance of land surface-atmosphere feedbacks. Here we present an analysis of the covariability of spring precipitation deficit and summer heat waves for North America and Europe, the latter having experienced an increase in summer heat wave frequency since the 1950s (Perkins et al. 2012). Over the Great Plains summer heat waves are significantly earlier, longer and hotter if following dry rather than wet springs, with the mega-heat waves of the 1930s Dust Bowl decade an extreme example (e.g. Cowan et al. 2017). Similar relationships can be found in some parts of Europe for heat wave frequency and duration, namely Southern and Eastern Europe, although the heat wave timing and amplitude (i.e. the hottest events) appear less sensitive to spring drying. Climate model results investigating the relationship between heat waves and precipitation deficit in regions in Europe and North America will also be presented. It is necessary to pinpoint the causes of large decadal variations in heat wave metrics, as seen in the 1930s over North America and more recently across Central Europe, for event attribution purposes and to improve near-decadal prediction. The tight link between spring drought and summer heat waves will also be important for understanding the impacts of these climatic events and supports the development of compound event analysis techniques. References: Cowan, T., G. Hegerl, I. Colfescu, A. Purich and G. Boshcat (2016), Factors contributing to record-breaking heat waves over the Great Plains during the 1930s Dust Bowl. Journal of Climate, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0436.1 (in press). Perkins, S. E., L. V. Alexander, and J. R. Nairn (2012), Increasing frequency, intensity and duration of observed global heatwaves and warm spells, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L20714, doi:10.1029/2012GL053361.

Heat waves over Central Europe in regional climate model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lhotka, Ondřej; Kyselý, Jan

2014-05-01

Regional climate models (RCMs) have become a powerful tool for exploring impacts of global climate change on a regional scale. The aim of the study is to evaluate the capability of RCMs to reproduce characteristics of major heat waves over Central Europe in their simulations of the recent climate (1961-2000), with a focus on the most severe and longest Central European heat wave that occurred in 1994. We analyzed 7 RCM simulations with a high resolution (0.22°) from the ENSEMBLES project, driven by the ERA-40 reanalysis. In observed data (the E-OBS 9.0 dataset), heat waves were defined on the basis of deviations of daily maximum temperature (Tmax) from the 95% quantile of summer Tmax distribution in grid points over Central Europe. The same methodology was applied in the RCM simulations; we used corresponding 95% quantiles (calculated for each RCM and grid point) in order to remove the bias of modelled Tmax. While climatological characteristics of heat waves are reproduced reasonably well in the RCM ensemble, we found major deficiencies in simulating heat waves in individual years. For example, METNOHIRHAM simulated very severe heat waves in 1996, when no heat wave was observed. Focusing on the major 1994 heat wave, considerable differences in simulated temperature patterns were found among the RCMs. The differences in the temperature patterns were clearly linked to the simulated amount of precipitation during this event. The 1994 heat wave was almost absent in all RCMs that did not capture the observed precipitation deficit, while it was by far most pronounced in KNMI-RACMO that simulated virtually no precipitation over Central Europe during the 15-day period of the heat wave. By contrast to precipitation, values of evaporative fraction in the RCMs were not linked to severity of the simulated 1994 heat wave. This suggests a possible major contribution of other factors such as cloud cover and associated downward shortwave radiation. Therefore, a more detailed analysis of individual components of the energy budget over Central Europe during and before the 1994 heat wave was performed.

THE ROLE OF TORSIONAL ALFVEN WAVES IN CORONAL HEATING

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Antolin, P.; Shibata, K., E-mail: antolin@astro.uio.n, E-mail: shibata@kwasan.kyoto-u.ac.j

In the context of coronal heating, among the zoo of magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) waves that exist in the solar atmosphere, Alfven waves receive special attention. Indeed, these waves constitute an attractive heating agent due to their ability to carry over the many different layers of the solar atmosphere sufficient energy to heat and maintain a corona. However, due to their incompressible nature these waves need a mechanism such as mode conversion (leading to shock heating), phase mixing, resonant absorption, or turbulent cascade in order to heat the plasma. Furthermore, their incompressibility makes their detection in the solar atmosphere very difficult. Newmore » observations with polarimetric, spectroscopic, and imaging instruments such as those on board the Japanese satellite Hinode, or the Crisp spectropolarimeter of the Swedish Solar Telescope or the Coronal Multi-channel Polarimeter, are bringing strong evidence for the existence of energetic Alfven waves in the solar corona. In order to assess the role of Alfven waves in coronal heating, in this work we model a magnetic flux tube being subject to Alfven wave heating through the mode conversion mechanism. Using a 1.5 dimensional MHD code, we carry out a parameter survey varying the magnetic flux tube geometry (length and expansion), the photospheric magnetic field, the photospheric velocity amplitudes, and the nature of the waves (monochromatic or white-noise spectrum). The regimes under which Alfven wave heating produces hot and stable coronae are found to be rather narrow. Independently of the photospheric wave amplitude and magnetic field, a corona can be produced and maintained only for long (>80 Mm) and thick (area ratio between the photosphere and corona >500) loops. Above a critical value of the photospheric velocity amplitude (generally a few km s{sup -1}) the corona can no longer be maintained over extended periods of time and collapses due to the large momentum of the waves. These results establish several constraints on Alfven wave heating as a coronal heating mechanism, especially for active region loops.« less

In Situ Observations of Harmonic Alfvén Waves and Associated Heavy Ion Heating

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Huayue; Gao, Xinliang; Lu, Quanming; Wang, Shui

2018-06-01

Resonant ion heating by high-frequency Alfvén waves has long been believed to be the primary dissipation mechanism for solar coronal heating, and these high-frequency Alfvén waves are considered to be generated via cascade from low-frequency Alfvén waves. In this study, we report an unusual harmonic Alfvén event from in situ observations by the Van Allen Probes in the magnetosphere, having an environment similar to that in the solar corona. The harmonic Alfvén waves, which propagate almost along the wave vector of the fundamental waves, are considered to be generated due to the interaction between quasi-parallel Alfvén waves and plasma density fluctuations with almost identical frequency. These high-frequency harmonic Alfvén waves can then cyclotron resonantly heat the heavy ions. Our observations provide an important insight into solar corona heating by Alfvén waves.

High Power Radio Wave Interactions within the D-Region Ionosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moore, R. C.

2014-12-01

This paper highlights the best results obtained during D-region modification experiments performed by the University of Florida at the High-frequency Active Auroral Research Program (HAARP) observatory between 2007 and 2014. Over this period, we have seen a tremendous improvement in ELF/VLF wave generation efficiency. We have identified methods to characterize ambient and modified ionospheric properties and to discern and quantify specific types of interactions. We have demonstrated several important implications of HF cross-modulation effects, including "Doppler Spoofing" on HF radio waves. Throughout this talk, observations are compared with the predictions of an ionospheric HF heating model to provide context and guidance for future D-region modification experiments.

Review of chemical-kinetic problems of future NASA missions. I - Earth entries

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Park, Chul

1993-01-01

A number of chemical-kinetic problems related to phenomena occurring behind a shock wave surrounding an object flying in the earth atmosphere are discussed, including the nonequilibrium thermochemical relaxation phenomena occurring behind a shock wave surrounding the flying object, problems related to aerobraking maneuver, the radiation phenomena for shock velocities of up to 12 km/sec, and the determination of rate coefficients for ionization reactions and associated electron-impact ionization reactions. Results of experiments are presented in form of graphs and tables, giving data on the reaction rate coefficients for air, the ionization distances, thermodynamic properties behind a shock wave, radiative heat flux calculations, Damkoehler numbers for the ablation-product layer, together with conclusions.

High-harmonic fast-wave power flow along magnetic field lines in the scrape-off layer of NSTX.

PubMed

Perkins, R J; Hosea, J C; Kramer, G J; Ahn, J-W; Bell, R E; Diallo, A; Gerhardt, S; Gray, T K; Green, D L; Jaeger, E F; Jaworski, M A; LeBlanc, B P; McLean, A; Maingi, R; Phillips, C K; Roquemore, L; Ryan, P M; Sabbagh, S; Taylor, G; Wilson, J R

2012-07-27

A significant fraction of high-harmonic fast-wave (HHFW) power applied to NSTX can be lost to the scrape-off layer (SOL) and deposited in bright and hot spirals on the divertor rather than in the core plasma. We show that the HHFW power flows to these spirals along magnetic field lines passing through the SOL in front of the antenna, implying that the HHFW power couples across the entire width of the SOL rather than mostly at the antenna face. This result will help guide future efforts to understand and minimize these edge losses in order to maximize fast-wave heating and current drive.

Response of Urban Systems to Climate Change in Europe: Heat Stress Exposure and the Effect on Human Health

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stevens, Catherine; Thomas, Bart; Grommen, Mart

2015-04-01

Climate change is driven by global processes such as the global ocean circulation and its variability over time leading to changing weather patterns on regional scales as well as changes in the severity and occurrence of extreme events such as heavy rain- and windstorms, floods, drought, heat waves, etc. The summer 2003 European heat wave was the hottest summer on record in Europe over the past centuries leading to health crises in several countries like France and caused up to 70.000 excess deaths over four months in Central and Western Europe. The main risks induced by global climate change in urbanised areas are considered to be overheating and resulting health effects, increased exposure to flood events, increased damage losses from extreme weather conditions but also shortages in the provision of life-sustaining services. Moreover, the cities themselves create specific or inherent risks and urban adaptation is often very demanding. As most of Europe's inhabitants live in cities, it is of particular relevance to examine the impact of climate variability on urban areas and their populations. The present study focusses on the identification of heat stress variables related to human health and the extraction of this information by processing daily temperature statistics of local urban climate simulations over multiple timeframes of 20 years and three different European cities based on recent, near future and far future global climate predictions. The analyses have been conducted in the framework of the NACLIM FP7 project funded by the European Commission involving local stakeholders such as the cities of Antwerp (Belgium), Berlin (Germany) and Almada (Portugal) represented by different climate and urban characteristics. Apart from the urban-rural temperature increment (urban heat island effect), additional heat stress parameters such as the average number of heat wave days together with their duration and intensities have been covered during this research. In a subsequent step, the heat stress variables are superposed on relevant socio-economic datasets targeting total population and its distribution per age class as well as vulnerable institutions such as hospitals, schools, rest homes and child/day care facilities in order to generate heat stress exposure maps for each use case city and various climate, urban planning and mitigation scenarios. The specifications and requirements for the various scenarios have been consolidated in close collaboration with the local stakeholders during dedicated end-users workshops. The results of this study will allow urban planners and policy makers facing the challenges of climate change and develop sound strategies for evolving towards sustainable and climate resilient cities.

Rise in Tornadoes, Floods Poses Risk to Colleges

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Larson, Scott

2008-01-01

In June the U.S Climate Change Science Program, which is sponsored by 13 government agencies, released a report saying that extreme weather like heat waves, heavy downpours, and superpowered hurricanes would be more common in the future. The timing of the report--coming just as officials in Iowa were surveying the damage from the swollen Iowa…

Generation of Shear Alfvén Waves by Repetitive High Power Microwave Pulses Near the Electron Plasma Frequency - A laboratory study of a ``Virtual Antenna''

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yuhou; Gekelman, Walter; Pribyl, Patrick; van Compernolle, Bart; Papadopoulos, Konstantinos

2015-11-01

ELF / ULF waves are important in terrestrial radio communications but difficult to launch using ground-based structures due to their enormous wavelengths. In spite of this generation of such waves by field-aligned ionospheric heating modulation was first demonstrated using the HAARP facility. In the future heaters near the equator will be constructed and laboratory experiments on cross-field wave propagation could be key to the program's success. Here we report a detailed laboratory study conducted on the Large Plasma Device (LaPD) at UCLA. In this experiment, ten rapid pulses of high power microwaves (250 kW X-band) near the plasma frequency were launched transverse to the background field, and were modulated at a variable fraction (0.1-1.0) of fci. Along with bulk electron heating and density modification, the microwave pulses generated a population of fast electrons. The field-aligned current carried by the fast electrons acted as an antenna that radiated shear Alfvén waves. It was demonstrated that a controllable arbitrary frequency (f

Evaluation of the Ability of S2S and NMME Models to Predict Heat Waves Following Drought Events in the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ford, T.; Dirmeyer, P.

2016-12-01

The influence of antecedent drought conditions on the onset of heat waves in North America is important as the establishment of past heat wave events has been connected to both advection of warm, dry air and limitation of local moisture recycling due to dry soils. The strong connection between the land surface and subsequent extreme heat offers promise that realistic soil moisture initialization could improve model forecast skill. However, there is still a lack of consensus about the (1) the role of antecedent drought conditions in forcing heat waves over North America and (2) the ability of numerical forecast models to predict extreme heat events at sub-seasonal to seasonal time scales. For this project, we use atmospheric reanalysis datasets to establish the connection between drought and subsequent extreme heat events. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), computed over 30-, 60-, and 90-day intervals, is used to identify drought events, while the excess heat factor defines subsequent heat wave events. We focus on heat waves immediately following drought periods, including events coinciding with but not beginning prior to the start of drought, as well as heat wave events beginning no more than 3 days after the demise of a drought event. Hindcasts from individual model ensemble members of the Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction (S2S) Project and the Phase II of the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) are assessed with regard to heat wave prediction. Each individual S2S and NMME ensemble member is evaluated to determine if their respective hindcasts are able to capture/predict heat wave events identified in the reanalysis products.

Heating and background plasma modification associated with large amplitude kinetic Alfv'en wave launch in LAPD

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carter, T. A.; Auerbach, D. W.; Brugman, B. T.

2007-11-01

Large amplitude kinetic Alfv'en waves (δB/B ˜1% > k/k) are generated in the Large Plasma Device (LAPD) at UCLA using loop antennas. Substantial electron heating is observed, localized to the wave current channels. The Poynting flux associated with the Alfv'en waves is substantial and the observed heating may be at least in part due to collisional and Landau damping of these waves. However, heating by antenna near inductive electric fields may also be responsible for the observations. A discussion of both possibilities will be presented, including measurements of near fields of the antenna. The heating structures the background plasma and results in the excitation of drift-Alfv'en waves. These drift waves then interact with the incident Alfv'en wave, causing sideband generation which results in a nearly broadband state at high wave power. This process may represent an alternate mechanism by which unidirectional kinetic Alfv'en waves can nonlinearly generate a turbulent spectrum. In addition to electron heating, evidence for background density modification and electron acceleration is observed and will be presented.

The Interaction of the Solar Wind with Solar Probe Plus - 3D Hybrid Simulation. Report 1; The Study for the Distance 4.5Rs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lipatov, Alexander S.; Sittler, Edward C.; Hartle, Richard E.; Cooper, John F.

2010-01-01

Our report devotes a 3D numerical hybrid model of the interaction of the solar wind with the Solar Probe spacecraft. The Solar Probe Plus (SPP) model includes 3 main parts, namely, a non-conducting heat shield, a support system, and cylindrical section or spacecraft bus that contains the particle analysis devices and antenna. One observes an excitation of the low frequency Alfven and whistler type wave directed by the magnetic field with an amplitude of about (0.06-0.6) V/m. The compression waves and the jumps in an electric field with an amplitude of about (0.15-0.7) V/m were also observed. The wave amplitudes are comparable to or greater than previously estimated max wave amplitudes that SPP is expected to measure. The results of our hybrid simulation will be useful for understanding the plasma environment near the SPP spacecraft at the distance 4.5 Rs. Future simulation will take into account the charging of the spacecraft, the charge separation effects, an outgassing from heat shield, a photoionization and an electron impact ionization effects near the spacecraft.

The Interaction of the Solar Wind with Solar Probe Plus - 3D Hybrid Simulation. Report 1; The Study for the Distance 4.5Rs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lipatov, Alexander S.; Sittler, Edward C.; Hartle, Richard E.; Cooper, John F.

2010-01-01

Our report devotes a 3D numerical hybrid model of the interaction of the solar wind with the Solar Probe spacecraft. The SPP model includes 3 main parts, namely, a non-conducting heat shield, a support system, and cylindrical section or spacecraft bus that contains the particle analysis devices and antenna. One observes an excitation of the low frequency Alfven and whistler type wave directed by the magnetic field with an amplitude of about (0.06-0.6) V/m. The compression waves and the jumps in an electric field with an amplitude of about (0.15-0.7) V/m were also observed. The wave amplitudes are comparable to or greater than previously estimated max wave amplitudes that SPP is expected to measure. The results of our hybrid simulation will be useful for understanding the plasma environment near the SPP spacecraft at the distance 4.5 Rs. Future simulation will take into account the charging of the spacecraft, the charge separation effects, an outgassing from heat shield, a photoionization and an electron impact ionization effects near the spacecraft.

Health impacts of the July 2010 heat wave in Québec, Canada.

PubMed

Bustinza, Ray; Lebel, Germain; Gosselin, Pierre; Bélanger, Diane; Chebana, Fateh

2013-01-21

One of the consequences of climate change is the increased frequency and intensity of heat waves which can cause serious health impacts. In Québec, July 2010 was marked by an unprecedented heat wave in recent history. The purpose of this study is to estimate certain health impacts of this heat wave. The crude daily death and emergency department admission rates during the heat wave were analyzed in relation to comparison periods using 95% confidence intervals. During the heat wave, the crude daily rates showed a significant increase of 33% for deaths and 4% for emergency department admissions in relation to comparison periods. No displacement of mortality was observed over a 60-day horizon. The all-cause death indicator seems to be sufficiently sensitive and specific for surveillance of exceedences of critical temperature thresholds, which makes it useful for a heat health-watch system. Many public health actions combined with the increased use of air conditioning in recent decades have contributed to a marked reduction in mortality during heat waves. However, an important residual risk remains, which needs to be more vigorously addressed by public health authorities in light of the expected increase in the frequency and severity of heat waves and the aging of the population.

Humid Heat Waves at different warming levels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Russo, S.; Sillmann, J.; Sterl, A.

2017-12-01

The co-occurrence of consecutive hot and humid days during a heat wave can strongly affect human health. Here, we quantify humid heat wave hazard in the recent past and at different levels of global warming.We find that the magnitude and apparent temperature peak of heat waves, such as the ones observed in Chicago in 1995 and China in 2003, have been strongly amplified by humidity. Climate model projections suggest that the percentage of area where heat wave magnitude and peak are amplified by humidity increases with increasing warming levels. Considering the effect of humidity at 1.5o and 2o global warming, highly populated regions, such as the Eastern US and China, could experience heat waves with magnitude greater than the one in Russia in 2010 (the most severe of the present era).The apparent temperature peak during such humid-heat waves can be greater than 55o. According to the US Weather Service, at this temperature humans are very likely to suffer from heat strokes. Humid-heat waves with these conditions were never exceeded in the present climate, but are expected to occur every other year at 4o global warming. This calls for respective adaptation measures in some key regions of the world along with international climate change mitigation efforts.

Solar coronal loop heating by cross-field wave transport

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Amendt, Peter; Benford, Gregory

1989-01-01

Solar coronal arches heated by turbulent ion-cyclotron waves may suffer significant cross-field transport by these waves. Nonlinear processes fix the wave-propagation speed at about a tenth of the ion thermal velocity, which seems sufficient to spread heat from a central core into a large cool surrounding cocoon. Waves heat cocoon ions both through classical ion-electron collisions and by turbulent stochastic ion motions. Plausible cocoon sizes set by wave damping are in roughly kilometers, although the wave-emitting core may be only 100 m wide. Detailed study of nonlinear stabilization and energy-deposition rates predicts that nearby regions can heat to values intermediate between the roughly electron volt foot-point temperatures and the about 100 eV core, which is heated by anomalous Ohmic losses. A volume of 100 times the core volume may be affected. This qualitative result may solve a persistent problem with current-driven coronal heating; that it affects only small volumes and provides no way to produce the extended warm structures perceptible to existing instruments.

Projected regional changes in the characteristics of dry and moist heat waves in the United States derived from downscaled CMIP5 models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schoof, J. T.

2017-12-01

Extreme temperatures affect society in multiple ways, but the impacts are often different depending on the concurrent humidity. For example, the greatest impacts on human morbidity and mortality result when the temperature and humidity are both elevated. Conversely, high temperatures coupled with low humidity often lead to agricultural impacts resulting in lower yields. Despite the importance of humidity in determining heat wave impacts, relatively few students of future temperature extremes have also considered possible changes in humidity. In a recent study, we investigated recent historical changes in the frequency and intensity and low humidity and high humidity extreme temperature events using a framework based on isobaric equivalent temperature. Here, we extend this approach to climate projections from CMIP5 models to explore possible regional changes in extreme heat characteristics. After using quantile mapping to bias correct and downscale the CMIP5 model outputs, we analyze results from two future periods (2031-2055 and 2061-2085) and two representative concentration pathways, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, corresponding to moderate and high levels of radiative forcing from greenhouse gases. For each of seven US regions, we consider changes in extreme temperature frequency, changes in the proportion of extreme temperature days characterized by high humidity, and changes in the magnitude of temperature and humidity on extreme temperature days.

Wave heating of the solar atmosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arregui, Iñigo

2015-04-01

Magnetic waves are a relevant component in the dynamics of the solar atmosphere. Their significance has increased because of their potential as a remote diagnostic tool and their presumed contribution to plasma heating processes. We discuss our current understanding of coronal heating by magnetic waves, based on recent observational evidence and theoretical advances. The discussion starts with a selection of observational discoveries that have brought magnetic waves to the forefront of the coronal heating discussion. Then, our theoretical understanding of the nature and properties of the observed waves and the physical processes that have been proposed to explain observations are described. Particular attention is given to the sequence of processes that link observed wave characteristics with concealed energy transport, dissipation and heat conversion. We conclude with a commentary on how the combination of theory and observations should help us to understand and quantify magnetic wave heating of the solar atmosphere.

Wave heating of the solar atmosphere

PubMed Central

Arregui, Iñigo

2015-01-01

Magnetic waves are a relevant component in the dynamics of the solar atmosphere. Their significance has increased because of their potential as a remote diagnostic tool and their presumed contribution to plasma heating processes. We discuss our current understanding of coronal heating by magnetic waves, based on recent observational evidence and theoretical advances. The discussion starts with a selection of observational discoveries that have brought magnetic waves to the forefront of the coronal heating discussion. Then, our theoretical understanding of the nature and properties of the observed waves and the physical processes that have been proposed to explain observations are described. Particular attention is given to the sequence of processes that link observed wave characteristics with concealed energy transport, dissipation and heat conversion. We conclude with a commentary on how the combination of theory and observations should help us to understand and quantify magnetic wave heating of the solar atmosphere. PMID:25897091

Quantifying impacts of heat waves on power grid operation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ke, Xinda; Wu, Di; Rice, Jennie S.

Climate change is projected to cause an increase in the severity and frequency of extreme weather events such as heat waves and droughts. Such changes present planning and operating challenges and risks to many economic sectors. In the electricity sector, statistics of extreme events in the past have been used to help plan for future peak loads, determine associated infrastructure requirements, and evaluate operational risks, but industry-standard planning tools have yet to be coupled with or informed by temperature models to explore the impacts of the "new normal" on planning studies. For example, high ambient temperatures during heat waves reducemore » the output capacity and efficiency of gas fired combustion turbines just when they are needed most to meet peak demands. This paper describes the development and application of a production cost and unit commitment model coupled to high resolution, hourly temperature data and a temperature dependent load model. The coupled system has the ability to represent the impacts of hourly temperatures on load conditions and available capacity and efficiency of combustion turbines, and therefore capture the potential impacts on system reliability and production cost. Ongoing work expands this capability to address the impacts of water availability and temperature on power grid operation.« less

Vegetation canopy and physiological control of GPP decline during drought and heat wave

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Y.; Xiao, X.; Zhou, S.; McCarthy, H. R.; Ciais, P.; Luo, Y.

2015-12-01

Different vegetation indices derived from satellites were often used as a proxy of vegetation activity to monitor and evaluate the impacts of drought and heat wave on ecosystem carbon fluxes (gross primary production, respiration) through the production efficiency models (PEMs). However, photosynthesis is also regulated by a series of physiological processes which cannot be directly observed through satellites. In this study, we analyzed the response of drought and heat wave induced GPP and climate anomaly from 15 Euroflux sites and the corresponding vegetation indices from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite. Correlation analysis suggests that the vegetation indices are more responsive to GPP variation in grasslands and open shrublands, but less responsive in forest ecosystems. Physiology control can be up to 20% of the total GPP during the drought period without changing the canopy structure. At temporal scale for each site, VPD and vegetation indices can be used to track the GPP for forest and non-forest, respectively. However, different stand characteristics should be taken into consideration for forest ecosystems. Based on the above findings, a conceptual model is built to illuminate the physiological and canopy control on the GPP during the drought period. Improvement for future PEMs should incorporate better indicators to deal with drought conditions for different ecosystems.

High-Resolution Dynamical Downscaling Ensemble Projections of Future Extreme Temperature Distributions for the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zobel, Zachary; Wang, Jiali; Wuebbles, Donald J.; Kotamarthi, V. Rao

2017-12-01

The aim of this study is to examine projections of extreme temperatures over the continental United States (CONUS) for the 21st century using an ensemble of high spatial resolution dynamically downscaled model simulations with different boundary conditions. The downscaling uses the Weather Research and Forecast model at a spatial resolution of 12 km along with outputs from three different Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 global climate models that provide boundary conditions under two different future greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration trajectories. The results from two decadal-length time slices (2045-2054 and 2085-2094) are compared with a historical decade (1995-2004). Probability density functions of daily maximum/minimum temperatures are analyzed over seven climatologically cohesive regions of the CONUS. The impacts of different boundary conditions as well as future GHG concentrations on extreme events such as heat waves and days with temperature higher than 95°F are also investigated. The results show that the intensity of extreme warm temperature in future summer is significantly increased, while the frequency of extreme cold temperature in future winter decreases. The distribution of summer daily maximum temperature experiences a significant warm-side shift and increased variability, while the distribution of winter daily minimum temperature is projected to have a less significant warm-side shift with decreased variability. Using "business-as-usual" scenario, 5-day heat waves are projected to occur at least 5-10 times per year in most CONUS and ≥95°F days will increase by 1-2 months by the end of the century.

Investigation of ELF/VLF waves created by a "beat-wave" HF ionospheric heating at high latitudes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shumilov, Oleg; Tereshchenko, Evgeniy; Kasatkina, Elena; Gomonov, Alexandr

2015-04-01

The generation of extremely low frequency (ELF, 3-3000 Hz) and very low frequency (VLF, 3-30 kHz) electromagnetic waves by modulated ionospheric high frequency (HF, 2-30 MHz) heating is one of the main directions of ionospheric modification experiments. In this work, we present observations of ELF waves generated during a "beat-wave" heating experiments at the EISCAT heating facility. ELF waves were registered with the ELF receiver located at Lovozero (68 N, 35 E), 660 km east from the EISCAT Tromso heating facility (69.6 N, 19.2 E). Frequency shifts between the generated beat-wave and received ELF waves were detected in all sessions. It is shown that the amplitudes of ELF waves depend on the auroral electrojet current strength. Our results showing a strong dependence of ELF signal intensities on the substorm development seem to support the conclusion that electrojet currents may affect the BW generation of ELF/VLF waves.

A low-frequency wave motion mechanism enables efficient energy transport in carbon nanotubes at high heat fluxes.

PubMed

Zhang, Xiaoliang; Hu, Ming; Poulikakos, Dimos

2012-07-11

The great majority of investigations of thermal transport in carbon nanotubes (CNTs) in the open literature focus on low heat fluxes, that is, in the regime of validity of the Fourier heat conduction law. In this paper, by performing nonequilibrium molecular dynamics simulations we investigated thermal transport in a single-walled CNT bridging two Si slabs under constant high heat flux. An anomalous wave-like kinetic energy profile was observed, and a previously unexplored, wave-dominated energy transport mechanism is identified for high heat fluxes in CNTs, originated from excited low frequency transverse acoustic waves. The transported energy, in terms of a one-dimensional low frequency mechanical wave, is quantified as a function of the total heat flux applied and is compared to the energy transported by traditional Fourier heat conduction. The results show that the low frequency wave actually overtakes traditional Fourier heat conduction and efficiently transports the energy at high heat flux. Our findings reveal an important new mechanism for high heat flux energy transport in low-dimensional nanostructures, such as one-dimensional (1-D) nanotubes and nanowires, which could be very relevant to high heat flux dissipation such as in micro/nanoelectronics applications.

Impact of temperature on childhood pneumonia estimated from satellite remote sensing.

PubMed

Xu, Zhiwei; Liu, Yang; Ma, Zongwei; Li, Shenghui; Hu, Wenbiao; Tong, Shilu

2014-07-01

The effect of temperature on childhood pneumonia in subtropical regions is largely unknown so far. This study examined the impact of temperature on childhood pneumonia in Brisbane, Australia. A quasi-Poisson generalized linear model combined with a distributed lag non-linear model was used to quantify the main effect of temperature on emergency department visits (EDVs) for childhood pneumonia in Brisbane from 2001 to 2010. The model residuals were checked to identify added effects due to heat waves or cold spells. Both high and low temperatures were associated with an increase in EDVs for childhood pneumonia. Children aged 2-5 years, and female children were particularly vulnerable to the impacts of heat and cold, and Indigenous children were sensitive to heat. Heat waves and cold spells had significant added effects on childhood pneumonia, and the magnitude of these effects increased with intensity and duration. There were changes over time in both the main and added effects of temperature on childhood pneumonia. Children, especially those female and Indigenous, should be particularly protected from extreme temperatures. Future development of early warning systems should take the change over time in the impact of temperature on children's health into account. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Effect of heating on the suppression of tearing modes in tokamaks.

PubMed

Classen, I G J; Westerhof, E; Domier, C W; Donné, A J H; Jaspers, R J E; Luhmann, N C; Park, H K; van de Pol, M J; Spakman, G W; Jakubowski, M W

2007-01-19

The suppression of (neoclassical) tearing modes is of great importance for the success of future fusion reactors like ITER. Electron cyclotron waves can suppress islands, both by driving noninductive current in the island region and by heating the island, causing a perturbation to the Ohmic plasma current. This Letter reports on experiments on the TEXTOR tokamak, investigating the effect of heating, which is usually neglected. The unique set of tools available on TEXTOR, notably the dynamic ergodic divertor to create islands with a fully known driving term, and the electron cyclotron emission imaging diagnostic to provide detailed 2D electron temperature information, enables a detailed study of the suppression process and a comparison with theory.

Attributing Human Mortality During Extreme Heat Waves to Anthropogenic Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mitchell, D.; Heaviside, C.; Vardoulakis, S.; Huntingford, C.; Masato, G.; Guillod, B. P.; Frumhoff, P. C.; Bowery, A.; Allen, M. R.

2015-12-01

Climate change is the biggest global health threat of the 21st century (Costello et al, 2009; Watts et al, 2015). Perhaps one of the clearest examples of this is the summer heat wave of 2003, which saw up to seventy thousand excess deaths across Europe (Robine et al, 2007). The extreme temperatures are now thought to be significantly enhanced due to anthropogenic climate change (Stott et al, 2004; Christidis et al, 2015). Here, we consider not only the Europe-wide temperature response of the heat wave, but the localised response using a high-resolution regional model simulating 2003 climate conditions thousands of times. For the first time, by employing end-to-end attribution, we attribute changes in mortality to the increased radiative forcing from climate change, with a specific focus on London and Paris. We show that in both cities, a sizable proportion of the excess mortality can be attributed to human emissions. With European heat waves projected to increase into the future, these results provide a worrying reality for what may lie ahead. Christidis, Nikolaos, Gareth S. Jones, and Peter A. Stott. "Dramatically increasing chance of extremely hot summers since the 2003 European heatwave." Nature Climate Change (2014). Costello, Anthony, et al. "Managing the health effects of climate change: lancet and University College London Institute for Global Health Commission." The Lancet 373.9676 (2009): 1693-1733. Stott, Peter A., Dáithí A. Stone, and Myles R. Allen. "Human contribution to the European heatwave of 2003." Nature 432.7017 (2004): 610-614 Watts, N., et al. "Health and climate change: policy responses to protect public health." Lancet. 2015.

Urban Heat Wave Hazard Assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Quattrochi, Dale A.; Jedlovec, Gary; Meyer, Paul J.; LaFontaine, Frank J.; Crane, Dakota L.

2016-01-01

Heat waves are the largest cause of environment-related deaths globally. On average, over 6,000 people in the United States alone are hospitalized each summer due to excessive heat. Key elements leading to these disasters are elevated humidity and the urban heat island effect, which act together to increase apparent temperature and amplify the effects of a heat wave. Urban demographics and socioeconomic factors also play a role in determining individual risk. Currently, advisories of impending heat waves are often too generalized, with limited or no spatial variability over urban regions. This frequently contributes to a lack of specific response on behalf of the population. A goal of this project is to develop a product that has the potential to provide more specific heat wave guidance invoking greater awareness and action.

Can heat waves change the trophic role of the world's most invasive crayfish? Diet shifts in Procambarus clarkii.

PubMed

Carreira, Bruno M; Segurado, Pedro; Laurila, Anssi; Rebelo, Rui

2017-01-01

In the Mediterranean basin, the globally increasing temperatures are expected to be accompanied by longer heat waves. Commonly assumed to benefit cold-limited invasive alien species, these climatic changes may also change their feeding preferences, especially in the case of omnivorous ectotherms. We investigated heat wave effects on diet choice, growth and energy reserves in the invasive red swamp crayfish, Procambarus clarkii. In laboratory experiments, we fed juvenile and adult crayfish on animal, plant or mixed diets and exposed them to a short or a long heat wave. We then measured crayfish survival, growth, body reserves and Fulton's condition index. Diet choices of the crayfish maintained on the mixed diet were estimated using stable isotopes (13C and 15N). The results suggest a decreased efficiency of carnivorous diets at higher temperatures, as juveniles fed on the animal diet were unable to maintain high growth rates in the long heat wave; and a decreased efficiency of herbivorous diets at lower temperatures, as juveniles in the cold accumulated less body reserves when fed on the plant diet. Heat wave treatments increased the assimilation of plant material, especially in juveniles, allowing them to sustain high growth rates in the long heat wave. Contrary to our expectations, crayfish performance decreased in the long heat wave, suggesting that Mediterranean summer heat waves may have negative effects on P. clarkii and that they are unlikely to boost its populations in this region. Although uncertain, it is possible that the greater assimilation of the plant diet resulted from changes in crayfish feeding preferences, raising the hypotheses that i) heat waves may change the predominant impacts of this keystone species and ii) that by altering species' trophic niches, climate change may alter the main impacts of invasive alien species.

The great 2006 heat wave over California and Nevada: Signal of an increasing trend

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gershunov, A.; Cayan, D.R.; Iacobellis, S.F.

2009-01-01

Most of the great California-Nevada heat waves can be classified into primarily daytime or nighttime events depending on whether atmospheric conditions are dry or humid. A rash of nighttime-accentuated events in the last decade was punctuated by an unusually intense case in July 2006, which was the largest heat wave on record (1948-2006). Generally, there is a positive trend in heat wave activity over the entire region that is expressed most strongly and clearly in nighttime rather than daytime temperature extremes. This trend in nighttime heat wave activity has intensified markedly since the 1980s and especially since 2000. The two most recent nighttime heat waves were also strongly expressed in extreme daytime temperatures. Circulations associated with great regional heat waves advect hot air into the region. This air can be dry or moist, depending on whether a moisture source is available, causing heat waves to be expressed preferentially during day or night. A remote moisture source centered within a marine region west of Baja California has been increasing in prominence because of gradual sea surface warming and a related increase in atmospheric humidity. Adding to the very strong synoptic dynamics during the 2006 heat wave were a prolonged stream of moisture from this southwestern source and, despite the heightened humidity, an environment in which afternoon convection was suppressed, keeping cloudiness low and daytime temperatures high. The relative contributions of these factors and possible relations to global warming are discussed. ?? 2009 American Meteorological Society.

Wind Observations of Wave Heating and/or Particle Energization at Supercritical Interplanetary Shocks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, Lynn Bruce, III; Szabo, Adam; Koval, Andriy; Cattell, Cynthia A.; Kellogg, Paul J.; Goetz, Keith; Breneman, Aaron; Kersten, Kris; Kasper, Justin C.; Pulupa, Marc

2011-01-01

We present the first observations at supercritical interplanetary shocks of large amplitude (> 100 mV/m pk-pk) solitary waves, approx.30 mV/m pk-pk waves exhibiting characteristics consistent with electron Bernstein waves, and > 20 nT pk-pk electromagnetic lower hybrid-like waves, with simultaneous evidence for wave heating and particle energization. The solitary waves and the Bernstein-like waves were likely due to instabilities driven by the free energy provided by reflected ions [Wilson III et al., 2010]. They were associated with strong particle heating in both the electrons and ions. We also show a case example of parallel electron energization and perpendicular ion heating due to a electromagnetic lower hybrid-like wave. Both studies provide the first experimental evidence of wave heating and/or particle energization at interplanetary shocks. Our experimental results, together with the results of recent Vlasov [Petkaki and Freeman, 2008] and PIC [Matsukyo and Scholer, 2006] simulations using realistic mass ratios provide new evidence to suggest that the importance of wave-particle dissipation at shocks may be greater than previously thought.

Urban Heat Wave Hazard Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quattrochi, D. A.; Jedlovec, G.; Crane, D. L.; Meyer, P. J.; LaFontaine, F.

2016-12-01

Heat waves are one of the largest causes of environmentally-related deaths globally and are likely to become more numerous as a result of climate change. The intensification of heat waves by the urban heat island effect and elevated humidity, combined with urban demographics, are key elements leading to these disasters. Better warning of the potential hazards may help lower risks associated with heat waves. Moderate resolution thermal data from NASA satellites is used to derive high spatial resolution estimates of apparent temperature (heat index) over urban regions. These data, combined with demographic data, are used to produce a daily heat hazard/risk map for selected cities. MODIS data are used to derive daily composite maximum and minimum land surface temperature (LST) fields to represent the amplitude of the diurnal temperature cycle and identify extreme heat days. Compositing routines are used to generate representative daily maximum and minimum LSTs for the urban environment. The limited effect of relative humidity on the apparent temperature (typically 10-15%) allows for the use of modeled moisture fields to convert LST to apparent temperature without loss of spatial variability. The daily max/min apparent temperature fields are used to identify abnormally extreme heat days relative to climatological values in order to produce a heat wave hazard map. Reference to climatological values normalizes the hazard for a particular region (e.g., the impact of an extreme heat day). A heat wave hazard map has been produced for several case study periods and then computed on a quasi-operational basis during the summer of 2016 for Atlanta, GA, Chicago, IL, St. Louis, MO, and Huntsville, AL. A hazard does not become a risk until someone or something is exposed to that hazard at a level that might do harm. Demographic information is used to assess the urban risk associated with the heat wave hazard. Collectively, the heat wave hazard product can warn people in urban regions who do not have the means to provide air conditioning or take other means to stay cool. The heat wave risk product is conveyed to users via a website that describes current and historical heat wave information and is updated in real time as needed. These risk maps can be used for better monitoring of public health risk from extreme heat events in urban areas.

Extreme climatic conditions and health service utilisation across rural and metropolitan New South Wales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jegasothy, Edward; McGuire, Rhydwyn; Nairn, John; Fawcett, Robert; Scalley, Benjamin

2017-08-01

Periods of successive extreme heat and cold temperature have major effects on human health and increase rates of health service utilisation. The severity of these events varies between geographic locations and populations. This study aimed to estimate the effects of heat waves and cold waves on health service utilisation across urban, regional and remote areas in New South Wales (NSW), Australia, during the 10-year study period 2005-2015. We divided the state into three regions and used 24 over-dispersed or zero-inflated Poisson time-series regression models to estimate the effect of heat waves and cold waves, of three levels of severity, on the rates of ambulance call-outs, emergency department (ED) presentations and mortality. We defined heat waves and cold waves using excess heat factor (EHF) and excess cold factor (ECF) metrics, respectively. Heat waves generally resulted in increased rates of ambulance call-outs, ED presentations and mortality across the three regions and the entire state. For all of NSW, very intense heat waves resulted in an increase of 10.8% (95% confidence interval (CI) 4.5, 17.4%) in mortality, 3.4% (95% CI 0.8, 7.8%) in ED presentations and 10.9% (95% CI 7.7, 14.2%) in ambulance call-outs. Cold waves were shown to have significant effects on ED presentations (9.3% increase for intense events, 95% CI 8.0-10.6%) and mortality (8.8% increase for intense events, 95% CI 2.1-15.9%) in outer regional and remote areas. There was little evidence for an effect from cold waves on health service utilisation in major cities and inner regional areas. Heat waves have a large impact on health service utilisation in NSW in both urban and rural settings. Cold waves also have significant effects in outer regional and remote areas. EHF is a good predictor of health service utilisation for heat waves, although service needs may differ between urban and rural areas.

Documentation of Two- and Three-Dimensional Hypersonic Shock Wave/Turbulent Boundary Layer Interaction Flows

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kussoy, Marvin I.; Horstman, Clifford C.

1989-01-01

Experimental data for a series of two- and three-dimensional shock wave/turbulent boundary layer interaction flows at Mach 7 are presented. Test bodies, composed of simple geometric shapes, were designed to generate flows with varying degrees of pressure gradient, boundary-layer separation, and turning angle. The data include surface-pressure and heat-transfer distributions as well as limited mean-flow-field surveys in both the undisturbed and the interaction regimes. The data are presented in a convenient form for use in validating existing or future computational models of these generic hypersonic flows.

Ambient temperature and added heat wave effects on hospitalizations in California from 1999 to 2009.

PubMed

Sherbakov, Toki; Malig, Brian; Guirguis, Kristen; Gershunov, Alexander; Basu, Rupa

2018-01-01

Investigators have examined how heat waves or incremental changes in temperature affect health outcomes, but few have examined both simultaneously. We utilized distributed lag nonlinear models (DLNM) to explore temperature associations and evaluate possible added heat wave effects on hospitalizations in 16 climate zones throughout California from May through October 1999-2009. We define heat waves as a period when daily mean temperatures were above the zone- and month-specific 95th percentile for at least two consecutive days. DLNMs were used to estimate climate zone-specific non-linear temperature and heat wave effects, which were then combined using random effects meta-analysis to produce an overall estimate for each. With higher temperatures, admissions for acute renal failure, appendicitis, dehydration, ischemic stroke, mental health, non-infectious enteritis, and primary diabetes were significantly increased, with added effects from heat waves observed for acute renal failure and dehydration. Higher temperatures also predicted statistically significant decreases in hypertension admissions, respiratory admissions, and respiratory diseases with secondary diagnoses of diabetes, though heat waves independently predicted an added increase in risk for both respiratory types. Our findings provide evidence that both heat wave and temperature exposures can exert effects independently. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The Stirling Engine: A Wave of the Future

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1992-01-01

This video describes the Stirling engine, an external combustion engine which creates heat energy to power the motor, and can use many types of fuel. It can be used for both stationary and propulsion purposes and has advantages of better fuel economy and cleaner exhaust than internal combustion engines. The engine is shown being road tested at Langley Air Force Base.

Synoptic-scale characteristics and atmospheric controls of summer heat waves in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Weiwen; Zhou, Wen; Li, Xiuzhen; Wang, Xin; Wang, Dongxiao

2016-05-01

Summer heat waves with persistent extreme high temperatures have been occurring with increasing frequency in recent decades. These extreme events have disastrous consequences for human health, economies, and ecosystems. In this study, we examine three summers with intense and protracted heat waves: the summers of 2003, 2006, and 2013, with high temperatures located mainly in southeastern, southwestern, and eastern China, respectively. The synoptic-scale characteristics of these heat waves and associated atmospheric circulation anomalies are investigated. In the early heat wave episode of 2003, a heat center was located in the southeast coastal provinces during the first 20 days of July. The maximum southward displacement of the East Asian jet stream (EAJS) induced anticyclonic anomalies to the south, associated with southwestward intensification of the western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH), and extreme high temperatures were found only to the south of the Yangtze River. In the later episode, a poleward displacement of the EAJS and an enhanced WNPSH over the midlatitudes of eastern China resulted in a "heat dome" over the region, and the heat wave extended northward to cover a larger area of eastern China. The coupling between the westward-enhanced WNPSH and poleward-displaced EAJS was found in the East China heat wave of 2013 as well. But the area of high temperatures reached far to the north in August 2013, with below-normal temperatures located in a small region of South China. In the 2006 southwestern drought and heat wave, extreme poleward displacement of the EAJS, associated with extraordinary westward extension of the WNSPH, resulted in further blocking of the moisture supply from the southwest monsoon. Large-scale moisture deficiencies, dry conditions, and downslope winds were common features of all investigated heat wave episodes. But in 2006, low-level heat lows associated with a well-mixed layer due to intensive daytime heating and atmospheric turbulence were emphasized.

Associations between risk perception, spontaneous adaptation behavior to heat waves and heatstroke in Guangdong province, China

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background In many parts of the world, including in China, extreme heat events or heat waves are likely to increase in intensity, frequency, and duration in light of climate change in the next decades. Risk perception and adaptation behaviors are two important components in reducing the health impacts of heat waves, but little is known about their relationships in China. This study aimed to examine the associations between risk perception to heat waves, adaptation behaviors, and heatstroke among the public in Guangdong province, China. Methods A total of 2,183 adult participants were selected using a four-stage sampling method in Guangdong province. From September to November of 2010 each subject was interviewed at home by a well-trained investigator using a structured questionnaire. The information collected included socio-demographic characteristics, risk perception and spontaneous adaptation behaviors during heat wave periods, and heatstroke experience in the last year. Chi-square tests and unconditional logistic regression models were employed to analyze the data. Results This study found that 14.8%, 65.3% and 19.9% of participants perceived heat waves as a low, moderate or high health risk, respectively. About 99.1% participants employed at least one spontaneous adaptation behavior, and 26.2%, 51.2% and 22.6% respondents employed <4, 4–7, and >7 adaptation behaviors during heat waves, respectively. Individuals with moderate (OR=2.93, 95% CI: 1.38-6.22) or high (OR=10.58, 95% CI: 4.74-23.63) risk perception experienced more heatstroke in the past year than others. Drinking more water and wearing light clothes in urban areas, while decreasing activity as well as wearing light clothes in rural areas were negatively associated with heatstroke. Individuals with high risk perception and employing <4 adaptation behaviors during heat waves had the highest risks of heatstroke (OR=47.46, 95% CI: 12.82-175.73). Conclusions There is a large room for improving health risk perception and adaptation capacity to heat waves among the public of Guangdong province. People with higher risk perception and fewer adaptation behaviors during heat waves may be more vulnerable to heat waves. PMID:24088302

Associations between risk perception, spontaneous adaptation behavior to heat waves and heatstroke in Guangdong province, China.

PubMed

Liu, Tao; Xu, Yan Jun; Zhang, Yong Hui; Yan, Qing Hua; Song, Xiu Ling; Xie, Hui Yan; Luo, Yuan; Rutherford, Shannon; Chu, Cordia; Lin, Hua Liang; Ma, Wen Jun

2013-10-02

In many parts of the world, including in China, extreme heat events or heat waves are likely to increase in intensity, frequency, and duration in light of climate change in the next decades. Risk perception and adaptation behaviors are two important components in reducing the health impacts of heat waves, but little is known about their relationships in China. This study aimed to examine the associations between risk perception to heat waves, adaptation behaviors, and heatstroke among the public in Guangdong province, China. A total of 2,183 adult participants were selected using a four-stage sampling method in Guangdong province. From September to November of 2010 each subject was interviewed at home by a well-trained investigator using a structured questionnaire. The information collected included socio-demographic characteristics, risk perception and spontaneous adaptation behaviors during heat wave periods, and heatstroke experience in the last year. Chi-square tests and unconditional logistic regression models were employed to analyze the data. This study found that 14.8%, 65.3% and 19.9% of participants perceived heat waves as a low, moderate or high health risk, respectively. About 99.1% participants employed at least one spontaneous adaptation behavior, and 26.2%, 51.2% and 22.6% respondents employed <4, 4-7, and >7 adaptation behaviors during heat waves, respectively. Individuals with moderate (OR=2.93, 95% CI: 1.38-6.22) or high (OR=10.58, 95% CI: 4.74-23.63) risk perception experienced more heatstroke in the past year than others. Drinking more water and wearing light clothes in urban areas, while decreasing activity as well as wearing light clothes in rural areas were negatively associated with heatstroke. Individuals with high risk perception and employing <4 adaptation behaviors during heat waves had the highest risks of heatstroke (OR=47.46, 95% CI: 12.82-175.73). There is a large room for improving health risk perception and adaptation capacity to heat waves among the public of Guangdong province. People with higher risk perception and fewer adaptation behaviors during heat waves may be more vulnerable to heat waves.

Investigation of Ionospheric Turbulence and Whistler Wave Interactions with Space Plasmas

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-11-21

an oscillating LOS velocity with the same periodicity as the heating modulation pattern. A set of Fourier periodogram from the MUIR LOS velocity...scale ionospheric turbulence are discussed separately, viz., (a) anomalous heat source-induced acoustic gravity waves (AGW), and (b) HF radio wave...ionospheric ducts, acoustic gravity waves (AGWs), anomalous heat sources, inner and outer radiation belts, L parameter, whistler wave interactions

Exploring the mutual enhancement between droughts and heatwaves in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samaniego, L. E.; Kumar, R.; Thober, S.; Pan, M.; Prudhomme, C.; Sheffield, J.; Wanders, N.; Wood, E. F.

2016-12-01

Extensive analyses of past and future changes in essential hydrologicalvariables such as soil moisture based on climate and/or land surfacemodel projections have been carried out during the last decades. Recentstudies, however, showed that no comprehensive picture of theanticipated changes has evolved basically due to the large uncertaintiesin both observed and projected changes as well as their coarser spatialresolution. So far, concluding statements cannot be drawn, in particularfor droughts and heat waves, although the key role of soil moisture foramplifying heat waves and its skill for predicting temperature has beenidentified. In this study, we hypothesized that the mutual enhancementbetween droughts and heat waves is intensified as the climate warms. Putdifferently, a drought can make a hot day hotter while a heat wave canexacerbate a moderate drought event into an extreme one. Europe, in particular, has endured large scale drought-heat-wave eventsduring the recent past (e.g., 2003), which have induced enormoussocio-economic losses as well as casualties. Testing thepreviously posed hypothesis within the Pan-EU domain has been limitedmainly by the availability of reliable and high-resolution data sets. The EDgE project commissioned by the ECMWF (C3S) provides a uniqueopportunity to test this hypothesis. High-resolution multi-modelhydrologic simulations over the Pan-EU domain at a scale of 5x5 km2 havebeen completed for the historical period 1955-2015 with the mHM(www.ufz.de/mhm) and PCR-GLOBWB. Noah-MP and VIC simulations will beaccomplished soon. Using these multi-model unprecedented simulations, daily soil moistureindex and temperature anomalies from 1955 to 2015 will beestimated. The stochastic relationships between these variables will beinvestigated with empirical copulas. The main goal of this study is totest whether a significant Granger causality existsbetween soil moisture and temperature anomaly fields over thePan-EU. The advantage of this testing framework stems from the fact thatit is based on predictability instead of correlation to identifycausation, as it is the case with standard correlation-basedapproaches. Preliminary tests indicate that the mutual enhancementhypothesis cannot be rejected in hot-spot areas enduring heavyanthropogenic disturbances.

Future heat-waves, droughts and floods in 571 European cities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guerreiro, Selma B.; Dawson, Richard J.; Kilsby, Chris; Lewis, Elizabeth; Ford, Alistair

2018-03-01

Cities are particularly vulnerable to climate risks due to their agglomeration of people, buildings and infrastructure. Differences in methodology, hazards considered, and climate models used limit the utility and comparability of climate studies on individual cities. Here we assess, for the first time, future changes in flood, heat-waves (HW), and drought impacts for all 571 European cities in the Urban Audit database using a consistent approach. To capture the full range of uncertainties in natural variability and climate models, we use all climate model runs from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) for the RCP8.5 emissions scenario to calculate Low, Medium and High Impact scenarios, which correspond to the 10th, 50th and 90th percentiles of each hazard for each city. We find that HW days increase across all cities, but especially in southern Europe, whilst the greatest HW temperature increases are expected in central European cities. For the low impact scenario, drought conditions intensify in southern European cities while river flooding worsens in northern European cities. However, the high impact scenario projects that most European cities will see increases in both drought and river flood risks. Over 100 cities are particularly vulnerable to two or more climate impacts. Moreover, the magnitude of impacts exceeds those previously reported highlighting the substantial challenge cities face to manage future climate risks.

Probability of US Heat Waves Affected by a Subseasonal Planetary Wave Pattern

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Teng, Haiyan; Branstator, Grant; Wang, Hailan; Meehl, Gerald A.; Washington, Warren M.

2013-01-01

Heat waves are thought to result from subseasonal atmospheric variability. Atmospheric phenomena driven by tropical convection, such as the Asian monsoon, have been considered potential sources of predictability on subseasonal timescales. Mid-latitude atmospheric dynamics have been considered too chaotic to allow significant prediction skill of lead times beyond the typical 10-day range of weather forecasts. Here we use a 12,000-year integration of an atmospheric general circulation model to identify a pattern of subseasonal atmospheric variability that can help improve forecast skill for heat waves in the United States. We find that heat waves tend to be preceded by 15-20 days by a pattern of anomalous atmospheric planetary waves with a wavenumber of 5. This circulation pattern can arise as a result of internal atmospheric dynamics and is not necessarily linked to tropical heating.We conclude that some mid-latitude circulation anomalies that increase the probability of heat waves are predictable beyond the typical weather forecast range.

Stochastic Ion Heating by the Lower-Hybrid Waves

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Khazanov, G.; Tel'nikhin, A.; Krotov, A.

2011-01-01

The resonance lower-hybrid wave-ion interaction is described by a group (differentiable map) of transformations of phase space of the system. All solutions to the map belong to a strange attractor, and chaotic motion of the attractor manifests itself in a number of macroscopic effects, such as the energy spectrum and particle heating. The applicability of the model to the problem of ion heating by waves at the front of collisionless shock as well as ion acceleration by a spectrum of waves is discussed. Keywords: plasma; ion-cyclotron heating; shocks; beat-wave accelerator.

Heat wave phenomenon in southern Slovakia: long-term changes and variability of daily maximum air temperature in Hurbanovo within the 1901-2009 period

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pecho, J.; Výberči, D.; Jarošová, M.; Å¥Astný, P. Å.

2010-09-01

Analysis of long-term changes and temporal variability of heat waves incidence in the region of southern Slovakia within the 1901-2009 periods is a goal of the presented contribution. It is expected that climate change in terms of global warming would amplify temporal frequency and spatial extension of extreme heat wave incidence in region of central Europe in the next few decades. The frequency of occurrence and amplitude of heat waves may be impacted by changes in the temperature regime. Heat waves can cause severe thermal environmental stress leading to higher hospital admission rates, health complications, and increased mortality. These effects arise because of one or more meteorology-related factors such as higher effective temperatures, sunshine, more consecutive hot days and nights, stagnation, increased humidity, increased pollutant emissions, and accelerated photochemical smog and particulate formation. Heat waves bring about higher temperatures, increased solar heating of buildings, inhibited ventilation, and a larger number of consecutive warm days and nights. All of these effects increase the thermal loads on buildings, reduce their ability to cool down, and increase indoor temperatures. The paper is focused to analysis of long-term and inter-decadal temporal variability of heat waves occurrence at meteorological station Hurbanovo (time-series of daily maximum air temperature available from at least 1901). We can characterize the heat waves by its magnitude and duration, hence both of these characteristics need to be investigated together using sophisticated statistical methods developed particularly for the analysis of extreme hydrological events. We investigated particular heat wave periods either from the severity point of view using HWI index. In the paper we also present the results of statistical analysis of daily maximum air temperature within 1901-2009 period. Apart from these investigation efforts we also focused on synoptic causes of heat wave incidence in connection with macro scale circulation patterns in central European region.

Thermal responses in a coronal loop maintained by wave heating mechanisms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matsumoto, Takuma

2018-05-01

A full 3-dimensional compressible magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulation is conducted to investigate the thermal responses of a coronal loop to the dynamic dissipation processes of MHD waves. When the foot points of the loop are randomly and continuously forced, the MHD waves become excited and propagate upward. Then, 1-MK temperature corona is produced naturally as the wave energy dissipates. The excited wave packets become non-linear just above the magnetic canopy, and the wave energy cascades into smaller spatial scales. Moreover, collisions between counter-propagating Alfvén wave packets increase the heating rate, resulting in impulsive temperature increases. Our model demonstrates that the heating events in the wave-heated loops can be nanoflare-like in the sense that they are spatially localized and temporally intermittent.

Electron Heating and Acceleration from High Amplitude Driven Alfvén Waves in the LAPD

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Auerbach, David; Carter, Troy; Brugman, Brian

2006-10-01

High amplitude (δB/B ˜1 %) shear Alfvén waves are generated in the Large Plasma Device Upgrade (LAPD) at UCLA, and elevated electron temperatures and high energy electrons are observed using triple probes and Langmuir current traces. The Poynting flux of the observed waves is calculated, and wave power is compared to estimates of power input required to cause the observed heating. Theoretical calculations of power transfer from wave to plasma due to Landau damping and collisional heating are also presented and compared to experimental measurements. Heating by antenna near field effects is also being explored. The density and potential structures of these waves are explored using interferometer and triple probe measurements. Applications to Auroral generation and plasma heating are discussed.

Quality improvement of polymer parts by laser welding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Puetz, Heidrun; Treusch, Hans-Georg; Welz, M.; Petring, Dirk; Beyer, Eckhard; Herziger, Gerd

1994-09-01

The growing significance of laser technology in industrial manufacturing is also observed in case of plastic industry. Laser cutting and marking are established processes. Laser beam welding is successfully practiced in processes like joining foils or winding reinforced prepregs. Laser radiation and its significant advantages of contactless and local heating could even be an alternative to conventional welding processes using heating elements, vibration or ultrasonic waves as energy sources. Developments in the field of laser diodes increase the interest in laser technology for material processing because in the near future they will represent an inexpensive energy source.

Characteristics of VLF wave propagation in the Earth's magnetosphere in the presence of an artificial density duct

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pasmanik, Dmitry; Demekhov, Andrei

We study the propagation of VLF waves in the Earth's ionosphere and magnetosphere in the presence of large-scale artificial plasma inhomogeneities which can be created by HF heating facilities like HAARP and ``Sura''. A region with enhanced cold plasma density can be formed due to the action of HF heating. This region is extended along geomagnetic field (up to altitudes of several thousand km) and has rather small size across magnetic field (about 1 degree). The geometric-optical approximation is used to study wave propagation. The plasma density and ion composition are calculated with the use of SAMI2 model, which was modified to take the effect of HF heating into account. We calculate ray trajectories of waves with different initial frequency and wave-normal angles and originating at altitudes of about 100 km in the region near the heating area. The source of such waves could be the lightning discharges, modulated HF heating of the ionosphere, or VLF transmitters. Variation of the wave amplitude along the ray trajectories due to refraction is considered and spatial distribution of wave intensity in the magnetosphere is analyzed. We show that the presence of such a density disturbances can lead to significant changes of wave propagation trajectories, in particular, to efficient guiding of VLF waves in this region. This can result in a drastic increase of the VLF-wave intensity in the density duct. The dependence of wave propagation properties on parameters of heating facility operation regime is considered. We study the variation of the spatial distribution of VLF wave intensity related to the slow evolution of the artificial inhomogeneity during the heating.

A Protocol to Assess Insect Resistance to Heat Waves, Applied to Bumblebees (Bombus Latreille, 1802)

PubMed Central

Martinet, Baptiste; Lecocq, Thomas; Smet, Jérémy; Rasmont, Pierre

2015-01-01

Insect decline results from numerous interacting factors including climate change. One of the major phenomena related to climate change is the increase of the frequency of extreme events such as heat waves. Since heat waves are suspected to dramatically increase insect mortality, there is an urgent need to assess their potential impact. Here, we determined and compared the resistance to heat waves of insects under hyperthermic stress through their time before heat stupor (THS) when they are exposed to an extreme temperature (40°C). For this, we used a new experimental standardised device available in the field or in locations close to the field collecting sites. We applied this approach on different Arctic, Boreo-Alpine and Widespread bumblebee species in order to predict consequences of heat waves. Our results show a heat resistance gradient: the heat stress resistance of species with a centred arctic distribution is weaker than the heat resistance of the Boreo-Alpine species with a larger distribution which is itself lower than the heat stress resistance of the ubiquitous species. PMID:25738862

Heat Vulnerability Index Mapping for Milwaukee and Wisconsin.

PubMed

Christenson, Megan; Geiger, Sarah Dee; Phillips, Jeffrey; Anderson, Ben; Losurdo, Giovanna; Anderson, Henry A

Extreme heat waves elevate the population's risk for heat-related morbidity and mortality, specifically for vulnerable groups such as older adults and young children. In this context, we developed 2 Heat Vulnerability Indices (HVIs), one for the state of Wisconsin and one for the Milwaukee metropolitan area. Through the creation of an HVI, state and local agencies will be able to use the indices as a planning tool for extreme heat events. Data used for the HVIs were grouped into 4 categories: (1) population density; (2) health factors; (3) demographic and socioeconomic factors; and (4) natural and built environment factors. These categories were mapped at the Census block group level. Unweighted z-score data were used to determine index scores, which were then mapped by quantiles ranging from "high" to "low" vulnerability. Statewide, Menominee County exhibited the highest vulnerability to extreme heat. Milwaukee HVI findings indicated high vulnerability in the city's inner core versus low vulnerability along the lakeshore. Visualization of vulnerability could help local public health agencies prepare for future extreme heat events.

New thermal wave aspects on burn evaluation of skin subjected to instantaneous heating.

PubMed

Liu, J; Chen, X; Xu, L X

1999-04-01

Comparative studies on the well-known Pennes' equation and the newly developed thermal wave model of bioheat transfer (TWMBT) were performed to investigate the wave like behaviors of bioheat transfer occurred in thermal injury of biological bodies. The one-dimensional TWMBT in a finite medium was solved using separation of variables and the analytical solution showed distinctive wave behaviors of bioheat transfer in skin subjected to instantaneous heating. The finite difference method was used to simulate and study practical problems involved in burn injuries in which skin was stratified as three layers with various thermal physical properties. Deviations between the TWMBT and the traditional Pennes' equation imply that, for high flux heating with extremely short duration (i.e., flash fire), the TWMBT which accounts for finite thermal wave propagation may provide realistic predictions on burn evaluation. A general heat flux criterion has been established to determine when the thermal wave propagation dominates the principal heat transfer process and the TWMBT can be used for tissue temperature prediction and burn evaluation. A preliminary interpretation on the mechanisms of the wave like behaviors of heat transfer in living tissues was conducted. The application of thermal wave theory can also be possibly extended to other medical problems which involve instantaneous heating or cooling.

Nonlinear hyperbolic theory of thermal waves in metals

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilhelm, H. E.; Choi, S. H.

1975-01-01

A closed-form solution for cylindrical thermal waves in metals is given based on the nonlinear hyperbolic system of energy-conservation and heat-flux relaxation equations. It is shown that heat released from a line source propagates radially outward with finite speed in the form of a thermal wave which exhibits a discontinuous wave front. Unique nonlinear thermal-wave solutions exist up to a critical amount of driving energy, i.e., for larger energy releases, the thermal flow becomes multivalued (occurrence of shock waves). By comparison, it is demonstrated that the parabolic thermal-wave theory gives, in general, a misleading picture of the profile and propagation of thermal waves and leads to physical (infinite speed of heat propagation) and mathematical (divergent energy integrals) difficulties. Attention is drawn to the importance of temporal heat-flux relaxation for the physical understanding of fast transient processes such as thermal waves and more general explosions and implosions.

The short-term effect of heat waves on mortality and its modifiers in China: an analysis from 66 communities.

PubMed

Ma, Wenjun; Zeng, Weilin; Zhou, Maigeng; Wang, Lijun; Rutherford, Shannon; Lin, Hualiang; Liu, Tao; Zhang, Yonghui; Xiao, Jianpeng; Zhang, Yewu; Wang, Xiaofeng; Gu, Xin; Chu, Cordia

2015-02-01

Many studies have reported increased mortality risk associated with heat waves. However, few have assessed the health impacts at a nation scale in a developing country. This study examines the mortality effects of heat waves in China and explores whether the effects are modified by individual-level and community-level characteristics. Daily mortality and meteorological variables from 66 Chinese communities were collected for the period 2006-2011. Heat waves were defined as ≥2 consecutive days with mean temperature ≥95th percentile of the year-round community-specific distribution. The community-specific mortality effects of heat waves were first estimated using a Distributed Lag Non-linear Model (DLNM), adjusting for potential confounders. To investigate effect modification by individual characteristics (age, gender, cause of death, education level or place of death), separate DLNM models were further fitted. Potential effect modification by community characteristics was examined using a meta-regression analysis. A total of 5.0% (95% confidence intervals (CI): 2.9%-7.2%) excess deaths were associated with heat waves in 66 Chinese communities, with the highest excess deaths in north China (6.0%, 95% CI: 1%-11.3%), followed by east China (5.2%, 95% CI: 0.4%-10.2%) and south China (4.5%, 95% CI: 1.4%-7.6%). Our results indicate that individual characteristics significantly modified heat waves effects in China, with greater effects on cardiovascular mortality, cerebrovascular mortality, respiratory mortality, the elderly, females, the population dying outside of a hospital and those with a higher education attainment. Heat wave mortality effects were also more pronounced for those living in urban cities or densely populated communities. Heat waves significantly increased mortality risk in China with apparent spatial heterogeneity, which was modified by some individual-level and community-level factors. Our findings suggest adaptation plans that target vulnerable populations in susceptible communities during heat wave events should be developed to reduce health risks. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Warming set stage for deadly heat wave

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schultz, Colin

2012-04-01

In the summer of 2010, soaring temperatures and widespread forest fires ravaged western Russia, killing 55,000 and causing $15 billion in economic losses. In the wake of the record-setting heat wave, two studies sought to identify the contribution that human activities made to the event. One showed that temperatures seen during the deadly heat wave fell within the bounds of natural variability, while another attributed the heat wave to human activity, arguing that anthropogenic warming increased the chance of record-breaking temperatures occurring. Merging the stances of both studies, Otto et al. sought to show that while human contributions to climate change did not necessarily cause the deadly heat wave, they did play a role in setting the stage for its occurrence. Using an ensemble of climate simulations, the authors assessed the expected magnitude and frequency of an event like the 2010 heat wave under both 1960s and 2000s environmental conditions. The authors found that although the average temperature in July 2010 was 5°C higher than the average July temperature from the past half decade, the deadly heat wave was within the natural variability of 1960s, as well as 2000s, climate conditions

Small-area spatiotemporal analysis of heatwave impacts on elderly mortality in Paris: A cluster analysis approach.

PubMed

Benmarhnia, Tarik; Kihal-Talantikite, Wahida; Ragettli, Martina S; Deguen, Séverine

2017-08-15

Heat-waves have a substantial public health burden. Understanding spatial heterogeneity at a fine spatial scale in relation to heat and related mortality is central to target interventions towards vulnerable communities. To determine the spatial variability of heat-wave-related mortality risk among elderly in Paris, France at the census block level. We also aimed to assess area-level social and environmental determinants of high mortality risk within Paris. We used daily mortality data from 2004 to 2009 among people aged >65 at the French census block level within Paris. We used two heat wave days' definitions that were compared to non-heat wave days. A Bernoulli cluster analysis method was applied to identify high risk clusters of mortality during heat waves. We performed random effects meta-regression analyses to investigate factors associated with the magnitude of the mortality risk. The spatial approach revealed a spatial aggregation of death cases during heat wave days. We found that small scale chronic PM 10 exposure was associated with a 0.02 (95% CI: 0.001; 0.045) increase of the risk of dying during a heat wave episode. We also found a positive association with the percentage of foreigners and the percentage of labor force, while the proportion of elderly people living in the neighborhood was negatively associated. We also found that green space density had a protective effect and inversely that the density of constructed feature increased the risk of dying during a heat wave episode. We showed that a spatial variation in terms of heat-related vulnerability exists within Paris and that it can be explained by some contextual factors. This study can be useful for designing interventions targeting more vulnerable areas and reduce the burden of heat waves. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Unidirectional spin-wave heat conveyer.

PubMed

An, T; Vasyuchka, V I; Uchida, K; Chumak, A V; Yamaguchi, K; Harii, K; Ohe, J; Jungfleisch, M B; Kajiwara, Y; Adachi, H; Hillebrands, B; Maekawa, S; Saitoh, E

2013-06-01

When energy is introduced into a region of matter, it heats up and the local temperature increases. This energy spontaneously diffuses away from the heated region. In general, heat should flow from warmer to cooler regions and it is not possible to externally change the direction of heat conduction. Here we show a magnetically controllable heat flow caused by a spin-wave current. The direction of the flow can be switched by applying a magnetic field. When microwave energy is applied to a region of ferrimagnetic Y3Fe5O12, an end of the magnet far from this region is found to be heated in a controlled manner and a negative temperature gradient towards it is formed. This is due to unidirectional energy transfer by the excitation of spin-wave modes without time-reversal symmetry and to the conversion of spin waves into heat. When a Y3Fe5O12 film with low damping coefficients is used, spin waves are observed to emit heat at the sample end up to 10 mm away from the excitation source. The magnetically controlled remote heating we observe is directly applicable to the fabrication of a heat-flow controller.

Quantification and assessment of heat and cold waves in Novi Sad, Northern Serbia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Basarin, Biljana; Lukić, Tin; Matzarakis, Andreas

2016-01-01

Physiologically equivalent temperature (PET) has been applied to the analysis of heat and cold waves and human thermal conditions in Novi Sad, Serbia. A series of daily minimum and maximum air temperature, relative humidity, wind, and cloud cover was used to calculate PET for the investigated period 1949-2012. The heat and cold wave analysis was carried out on days with PET values exceeding defined thresholds. Additionally, the acclimatization approach was introduced to evaluate human adaptation to interannual thermal perception. Trend analysis has revealed the presence of increasing trend in summer PET anomalies, number of days above defined threshold, number of heat waves, and average duration of heat waves per year since 1981. Moreover, winter PET anomaly as well as the number of days below certain threshold and number of cold waves per year until 1980 was decreasing, but the decrease was not statistically significant. The highest number of heat waves during summer was registered in the last two decades, but also in the first decade of the investigated period. On the other hand, the number of cold waves during six decades is quite similar and the differences are very small.

Quantification and assessment of heat and cold waves in Novi Sad, Northern Serbia.

PubMed

Basarin, Biljana; Lukić, Tin; Matzarakis, Andreas

2016-01-01

Physiologically equivalent temperature (PET) has been applied to the analysis of heat and cold waves and human thermal conditions in Novi Sad, Serbia. A series of daily minimum and maximum air temperature, relative humidity, wind, and cloud cover was used to calculate PET for the investigated period 1949-2012. The heat and cold wave analysis was carried out on days with PET values exceeding defined thresholds. Additionally, the acclimatization approach was introduced to evaluate human adaptation to interannual thermal perception. Trend analysis has revealed the presence of increasing trend in summer PET anomalies, number of days above defined threshold, number of heat waves, and average duration of heat waves per year since 1981. Moreover, winter PET anomaly as well as the number of days below certain threshold and number of cold waves per year until 1980 was decreasing, but the decrease was not statistically significant. The highest number of heat waves during summer was registered in the last two decades, but also in the first decade of the investigated period. On the other hand, the number of cold waves during six decades is quite similar and the differences are very small.

High-Resolution Dynamical Downscaling Ensemble Projections of Future Extreme Temperature Distributions for the United States

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zobel, Zachary; Wang, Jiali; Wuebbles, Donald J.

The aim of this study is to examine projections of extreme temperatures over the continental United States (CONUS) for the 21st century using an ensemble of high spatial resolution dynamically downscaled model simulations with different boundary conditions. The downscaling uses the Weather Research and Forecast model at a spatial resolution of 12 km along with outputs from three different Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 global climate models that provide boundary con- ditions under two different future greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration trajectories. The results from two decadal-length time slices (2045–2054 and 2085–2094) are compared with a historical decade (1995–2004). Probabilitymore » density functions of daily maximum/minimum temperatures are analyzed over seven climatologically cohesive regions of the CONUS. The impacts of different boundary conditions as well as future GHG concentrations on extreme events such as heat waves and days with temperature higher than 95°F are also investigated. The results show that the intensity of extreme warm temperature in future summer is significantly increased, while the frequency of extreme cold temperature in future winter decreases. The distribution of summer daily maximum temperature experiences a significant warm-side shift and increased variability, while the distribution of winter daily minimum temperature is projected to have a less significant warm-side shift with decreased variability. Finally, using "business-as-usual" scenario, 5-day heat waves are projected to occur at least 5–10 times per year in most CONUS and ≥ 95°F days will increase by 1–2 months by the end of the century.« less

High-Resolution Dynamical Downscaling Ensemble Projections of Future Extreme Temperature Distributions for the United States

DOE PAGES

Zobel, Zachary; Wang, Jiali; Wuebbles, Donald J.; ...

2017-11-20

The aim of this study is to examine projections of extreme temperatures over the continental United States (CONUS) for the 21st century using an ensemble of high spatial resolution dynamically downscaled model simulations with different boundary conditions. The downscaling uses the Weather Research and Forecast model at a spatial resolution of 12 km along with outputs from three different Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 global climate models that provide boundary con- ditions under two different future greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration trajectories. The results from two decadal-length time slices (2045–2054 and 2085–2094) are compared with a historical decade (1995–2004). Probabilitymore » density functions of daily maximum/minimum temperatures are analyzed over seven climatologically cohesive regions of the CONUS. The impacts of different boundary conditions as well as future GHG concentrations on extreme events such as heat waves and days with temperature higher than 95°F are also investigated. The results show that the intensity of extreme warm temperature in future summer is significantly increased, while the frequency of extreme cold temperature in future winter decreases. The distribution of summer daily maximum temperature experiences a significant warm-side shift and increased variability, while the distribution of winter daily minimum temperature is projected to have a less significant warm-side shift with decreased variability. Finally, using "business-as-usual" scenario, 5-day heat waves are projected to occur at least 5–10 times per year in most CONUS and ≥ 95°F days will increase by 1–2 months by the end of the century.« less

Changes in Extreme Events: from GCM Output to Social, Economic and Ecological Impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tebaldi, C.; Meehl, G. A.

2006-12-01

Extreme events can deeply affect social and natural systems. The current generation of global climate model is producing information that can be directly used to characterize future changes in extreme events, and through a further step their impacts, despite their still relatively coarse resolution. It is important to define extreme indicators consistently with what we expect GCM to be able to represent reliably. We use two examples from our work, heat waves and frost days, that well describe different aspects of the analysis of extremes from GCM output. Frost days are "mild extremes" and their definition and computation is straightforward. GCMs can represent them accurately and display a strong consistent signal of change. The impacts of these changes will be extremely relevant for ecosystems and agriculture. Heat waves do not have a standard definition. On the basis of historical episodes we isolate characteristics that were responsible for the worst effects on human health, for example, and analyze these characteristics in model simulations, validating the model's historical simulations. The changes in these characteristics can then be easily translated in expected differential impacts on public health. Work in progress goes in the direction of better characterization of "heat waves" taking into account jointly a set of variables like maximum and minimum temperatures and humidity, better addressing the biological vulnerabilities of the populations at risk.

Heat waves in lowland Germany and their circulation-related conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tomczyk, Arkadiusz M.; Sulikowska, Agnieszka

2017-09-01

The research study aimed at assessing multiannual variability of heat wave occurrence in the lowland part of Germany between 1966 and 2015 and determining the role of atmospheric circulation in their occurrence. The analysis was conducted with the use of two independent datasets, that is, the dataset of Germany's National Meteorological Service, Deutscher Wetterdienst, and American meteorological reanalysis database of the National Centre for Environmental Prediction/National Centre for Atmospheric Research. This article defines a hot day as a day with maximum temperature of >30 °C, and a heat wave as a sequence of at least three such days. The observed warming translated into an increase in a number of hot days and, consequently, an increase in the frequency of heat wave occurrence. In the analysed 50-year period, the smallest number of heat waves was observed between 1976 and 1985, and the largest number between 2006 and 2015 in the lowland part of Germany. The occurrence of heat waves in lowland Germany was related to anticyclonic circulation.

Impact of extreme high temperature on mortality and regional level definition of heat wave: a multi-city study in China.

PubMed

Gao, Jinghong; Sun, Yunzong; Liu, Qiyong; Zhou, Maigeng; Lu, Yaogui; Li, Liping

2015-02-01

Few multi-city studies have been conducted to explore the regional level definition of heat wave and examine the association between extreme high temperature and mortality in developing countries. The purpose of the present study was to investigate the impact of extreme high temperature on mortality and to explore the local definition of heat wave in five Chinese cities. We first used a distributed lag non-linear model to characterize the effects of daily mean temperature on non-accidental mortality. We then employed a generalized additive model to explore the city-specific definition of heat wave. Finally, we performed a comparative analysis to evaluate the effectiveness of the definition. For each city, we found a positive non-linear association between extreme high temperature and mortality, with the highest effects appearing within 3 days of extreme heat event onset. Specifically, we defined individual heat waves of Beijing and Tianjin as being two or more consecutive days with daily mean temperatures exceeding 30.2 °C and 29.5 °C, respectively, and Nanjing, Shanghai and Changsha heat waves as ≥3 consecutive days with daily mean temperatures higher than 32.9 °C, 32.3 °C and 34.5 °C, respectively. Comparative analysis generally supported the definition. We found extreme high temperatures were associated with increased mortality, after a short lag period, when temperatures exceeded obvious threshold levels. The city-specific definition of heat wave developed in our study may provide guidance for the establishment and implementation of early heat-health response systems for local government to deal with the projected negative health outcomes due to heat waves. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Spanish tourist sector facing extreme climate events: a case study of domestic tourism in the heat wave of 2003

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gómez-Martín, M. Belén; Armesto-López, Xosé A.; Martínez-Ibarra, Emilio

2014-07-01

This research explores, by means of a questionnaire-based survey, public knowledge and perception as well as the behaviour of young Spanish tourists before, during and after the summer holiday period affected by an episode of extreme heat in 2003. The survey was administered between November and December 2004. The extraordinary heat wave of the summer of 2003 can be seen as an example of a normal episode in terms of the predicted intensity and duration of European summers towards the end of the twenty-first century. It can therefore be used as the laboratory setting for this study. In this context, the use of the climate analogue approach allows us to obtain novel perspectives regarding the future impact that this type of event could have on tourist demand, based on a real experience. Likewise, such an approach allows the strategies of adaptation implemented by the different elements in the tourist system in order to cope with the atmospheric episode to be evaluated. Such strategies could prove useful in reducing vulnerability when faced with similar episodes in the future. The main results indicate that Spanish tourists (young segment market) are flexible in adapting to episodes of extremely high temperatures. Their personal perception of the phenomenon, their behaviour and the adaptation measures implemented to a greater or lesser extent before that time, reduce the vulnerability of the sector when faced with this type of event, at least from the point of view of this young segment of the internal national market. In Spain, the episode of extreme heat of 2003 has led to the implementation or improvement of some adaptive measures after the event, especially in the fields of management, policy and education.

The Spanish tourist sector facing extreme climate events: a case study of domestic tourism in the heat wave of 2003.

PubMed

Gómez-Martín, M Belén; Armesto-López, Xosé A; Martínez-Ibarra, Emilio

2014-07-01

This research explores, by means of a questionnaire-based survey, public knowledge and perception as well as the behaviour of young Spanish tourists before, during and after the summer holiday period affected by an episode of extreme heat in 2003. The survey was administered between November and December 2004. The extraordinary heat wave of the summer of 2003 can be seen as an example of a normal episode in terms of the predicted intensity and duration of European summers towards the end of the twenty-first century. It can therefore be used as the laboratory setting for this study. In this context, the use of the climate analogue approach allows us to obtain novel perspectives regarding the future impact that this type of event could have on tourist demand, based on a real experience. Likewise, such an approach allows the strategies of adaptation implemented by the different elements in the tourist system in order to cope with the atmospheric episode to be evaluated. Such strategies could prove useful in reducing vulnerability when faced with similar episodes in the future. The main results indicate that Spanish tourists (young segment market) are flexible in adapting to episodes of extremely high temperatures. Their personal perception of the phenomenon, their behaviour and the adaptation measures implemented to a greater or lesser extent before that time, reduce the vulnerability of the sector when faced with this type of event, at least from the point of view of this young segment of the internal national market. In Spain, the episode of extreme heat of 2003 has led to the implementation or improvement of some adaptive measures after the event, especially in the fields of management, policy and education.

Effects of Simulated Heat Waves with Strong Sudden Cooling Weather on ApoE Knockout Mice

PubMed Central

Zhang, Shuyu; Kuang, Zhengzhong; Zhang, Xiakun

2015-01-01

This study analyzes the mechanism of influence of heat waves with strong sudden cooling on cardiovascular diseases (CVD) in ApoE−/− mice. The process of heat waves with strong sudden cooling was simulated with a TEM1880 meteorological-environment simulation chamber according to the data obtained at 5 a.m. of 19 June 2006 to 11 p.m. of 22 June 2006. Forty-eight ApoE−/− mice were divided into six blocks based on their weight. Two mice from each block were randomly assigned to control, heat wave, temperature drop, and rewarming temperature groups. The experimental groups were transferred into the climate simulator chamber for exposure to the simulated heat wave process with strong sudden temperature drop. After 55, 59, and 75 h of exposure, the experimental groups were successively removed from the chamber to monitor physiological indicators. Blood samples were collected by decollation, and the hearts were harvested in all groups. The levels of heat stress factors (HSP60, SOD, TNF, sICAM-1, HIF-1α), cold stress factors (NE, EPI), vasoconstrictor factors (ANGII, ET-1, NO), and four items of blood lipid (TC, TG, HDL-C, and LDL-C) were measured in each ApoE−/− mouse. Results showed that the heat waves increased the levels of heat stress factors except SOD decreased, and decreased the levels of vasoconstrictor factors and blood lipid factors except TC increased. The strong sudden temperature drop in the heat wave process increased the levels of cold stress factors, vasoconstrictor factors and four blood lipid items (except the level of HDL-C which decreased) and decreased the levels of heat stress factors (except the level of SOD which increased). The analysis showed that heat waves could enhance atherosclerosis of ApoE−/− mice. The strong sudden temperature drop during the heat wave process increased the plasma concentrations of NE and ANGII, which indicates SNS activation, and resulted in increased blood pressure. NE and ANGII are vasoconstrictors involved in systemic vasoconstriction especially in the superficial areas of the body and conducive to increased blood pressure. The increase in the blood lipid levels of TG, LDL-C, TC, and LDL-C/HDL-C further aggravated CVD. This paper explored the influence mechanism of the heat waves with sudden cooling on CVD in ApoE−/− mice. PMID:26016434

Effects of Simulated Heat Waves with Strong Sudden Cooling Weather on ApoE Knockout Mice.

PubMed

Zhang, Shuyu; Kuang, Zhengzhong; Zhang, Xiakun

2015-05-26

This study analyzes the mechanism of influence of heat waves with strong sudden cooling on cardiovascular diseases (CVD) in ApoE-/- mice. The process of heat waves with strong sudden cooling was simulated with a TEM1880 meteorological-environment simulation chamber according to the data obtained at 5 a.m. of 19 June 2006 to 11 p.m. of 22 June 2006. Forty-eight ApoE-/- mice were divided into six blocks based on their weight. Two mice from each block were randomly assigned to control, heat wave, temperature drop, and rewarming temperature groups. The experimental groups were transferred into the climate simulator chamber for exposure to the simulated heat wave process with strong sudden temperature drop. After 55, 59, and 75 h of exposure, the experimental groups were successively removed from the chamber to monitor physiological indicators. Blood samples were collected by decollation, and the hearts were harvested in all groups. The levels of heat stress factors (HSP60, SOD, TNF, sICAM-1, HIF-1α), cold stress factors (NE, EPI), vasoconstrictor factors (ANGII, ET-1, NO), and four items of blood lipid (TC, TG, HDL-C, and LDL-C) were measured in each ApoE-/- mouse. Results showed that the heat waves increased the levels of heat stress factors except SOD decreased, and decreased the levels of vasoconstrictor factors and blood lipid factors except TC increased. The strong sudden temperature drop in the heat wave process increased the levels of cold stress factors, vasoconstrictor factors and four blood lipid items (except the level of HDL-C which decreased) and decreased the levels of heat stress factors (except the level of SOD which increased). The analysis showed that heat waves could enhance atherosclerosis of ApoE-/- mice. The strong sudden temperature drop during the heat wave process increased the plasma concentrations of NE and ANGII, which indicates SNS activation, and resulted in increased blood pressure. NE and ANGII are vasoconstrictors involved in systemic vasoconstriction especially in the superficial areas of the body and conducive to increased blood pressure. The increase in the blood lipid levels of TG, LDL-C, TC, and LDL-C/HDL-C further aggravated CVD. This paper explored the influence mechanism of the heat waves with sudden cooling on CVD in ApoE-/- mice.

Lunar heat flow experiments: Science objectives and a strategy for minimizing the effects of lander-induced perturbations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kiefer, Walter S.

2012-01-01

Reliable measurements of the Moon's global heat flow would serve as an important diagnostic test for models of lunar thermal evolution and would also help to constrain the Moon's bulk abundance of radioactive elements and its differentiation history. The two existing measurements of lunar heat flow are unlikely to be representative of the global heat flow. For these reasons, obtaining additional heat flow measurements has been recognized as a high priority lunar science objective. In making such measurements, it is essential that the design and deployment of the heat flow probe and of the parent spacecraft do not inadvertently modify the near-surface thermal structure of the lunar regolith and thus perturb the measured heat flow. One type of spacecraft-related perturbation is the shadow cast by the spacecraft and by thermal blankets on some instruments. The thermal effects of these shadows propagate by conduction both downward and outward from the spacecraft into the lunar regolith. Shadows cast by the spacecraft superstructure move over the surface with time and only perturb the regolith temperature in the upper 0.8 m. Permanent shadows, such as from thermal blankets covering a seismometer or other instruments, can modify the temperature to greater depth. Finite element simulations using measured values of the thermal diffusivity of lunar regolith show that the limiting factor for temperature perturbations is the need to measure the annual thermal wave for 2 or more years to measure the thermal diffusivity. The error induced by permanent spacecraft thermal shadows can be kept below 8% of the annual wave amplitude at 1 m depth if the heat flow probe is deployed at least 2.5 m away from any permanent spacecraft shadow. Deploying the heat flow probe 2 m from permanent shadows permits measuring the annual thermal wave for only one year and should be considered the science floor for a heat flow experiment on the Moon. One way to meet this separation requirement would be to deploy the heat flow and seismology experiments on opposite sides of the spacecraft. This result should be incorporated in the design of future lunar geophysics spacecraft experiments. Differences in the thermal environments of the Moon and Mars result in less restrictive separation requirements for heat flow experiments on Mars.

The role of local heating in the 2015 Indian Heat Wave.

PubMed

Ghatak, Debjani; Zaitchik, Benjamin; Hain, Christopher; Anderson, Martha

2017-08-09

India faced a major heat wave during the summer of 2015. Temperature anomalies peaked in the dry period before the onset of the summer monsoon, suggesting that local land-atmosphere feedbacks involving desiccated soils and vegetation might have played a role in driving the heat extreme. Upon examination of in situ data, reanalysis, satellite observations, and land surface models, we find that the heat wave included two distinct peaks: one in late May, and a second in early June. During the first peak we find that clear skies led to a positive net radiation anomaly at the surface, but there is no significant sensible heat flux anomaly within the core of the heat wave affected region. By the time of the second peak, however, soil moisture had dropped to anomalously low levels in the core heat wave region, net surface radiation was anomalously high, and a significant positive sensible heat flux anomaly developed. This led to a substantial local forcing on air temperature that contributed to the intensity of the event. The analysis indicates that the highly agricultural landscape of North and Central India can reinforce heat extremes under dry conditions.

Evaluation of the effects of one cold wave on heating energy consumption in different regions of northern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, D.; Xiao, W.; Wang, J.; Wang, H.; Zhao, Y.; Wang, Y.

2017-12-01

The heating energy consumption per floor area (HECPA) and heating degree days (HDD) are effective indicators in quantifying the energy demand for heating with climate change. Using the heating energy consumption and meteorological data, an attempt has been made to analyse the relationship between the HECPA and HDD in different regions of northern China by the linear regression model. Based on the constructed model, the effects of one cold wave on heating energy consumption in different regions are evaluated. The results show that the HECPA and HDD in Beijing have a positive correlation with a correlation coefficient of 0.68. During the cold wave in 2016, the heating energy consumption in Beijing approximately increases 2.37 per cent compared with 2014. However, no correlation has been found between the HECPA and HDD in the relatively undeveloped regions. It seems that the cold wave has a greater effect on the developed regions than relatively undeveloped ones. It is considered that the reasons for the little effect of one cold wave on heating energy consumption in the undeveloped regions are outdated heating systems, insufficient energy supply for heating and low living standards.

Transverse eV Ion Heating by Random Electric Field Fluctuations in the Plasmasphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Artemyev, A. V.; Mourenas, D.; Agapitov, O. V.; Blum, L.

2017-01-01

Charged particle acceleration in the Earth inner magnetosphere is believed to be mainly due to the local resonant wave-particle interaction or particle transport processes. However, the Van Allen Probes have recently provided interesting evidence of a relatively slow transverse heating of eV ions at distances about 2-3 Earth radii during quiet times. Waves that are able to resonantly interact with such very cold ions are generally rare in this region of space, called the plasmasphere. Thus, non-resonant wave-particle interactions are expected to play an important role in the observed ion heating. We demonstrate that stochastic heating by random transverse electric field fluctuations of whistler (and possibly electromagnetic ion cyclotron) waves could explain this weak and slow transverse heating of H+ and O+ ions in the inner magnetosphere. The essential element of the proposed model of ion heating is the presence of trains of random whistler (hiss) wave packets, with significant amplitude modulations produced by strong wave damping, rapid wave growth, or a superposition of wave packets of different frequencies, phases, and amplitudes. Such characteristics correspond to measured characteristics of hiss waves in this region. Using test particle simulations with typical wave and plasma parameters, we demonstrate that the corresponding stochastic transverse ion heating reaches 0.07-0.2 eV/h for protons and 0.007-0.015 eV/h for O+ ions. This global temperature increase of the Maxwellian ion population from an initial Ti approx. 0.3 eV could potentially explain the observations.

Nonlinear Interactions within the D-Region Ionosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moore, Robert

2016-07-01

This paper highlights the best results obtained during D-region modification experiments performed by the University of Florida at the High-frequency Active Auroral Research Program (HAARP) observatory between 2007 and 2014. Over this period, we saw a tremendous improvement in ELF/VLF wave generation efficiency. We identified methods to characterize ambient and modified ionospheric properties and to discern and quantify specific types of interactions. We have demonstrated several important implications of HF cross-modulation effects, including "Doppler Spoofing" on HF radio waves. Throughout this talk, observations are compared with the predictions of an ionospheric HF heating model to provide context and guidance for future D-region modification experiments.

Stochastic Acceleration of Ions Driven by Pc1 Wave Packets

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Khazanov, G. V.; Sibeck, D. G.; Tel'nikhin, A. A.; Kronberg, T. K.

2015-01-01

The stochastic motion of protons and He(sup +) ions driven by Pc1 wave packets is studied in the context of resonant particle heating. Resonant ion cyclotron heating typically occurs when wave powers exceed 10(exp -4) nT sq/Hz. Gyroresonance breaks the first adiabatic invariant and energizes keV ions. Cherenkov resonances with the electrostatic component of wave packets can also accelerate ions. The main effect of this interaction is to accelerate thermal protons to the local Alfven speed. The dependencies of observable quantities on the wave power and plasma parameters are determined, and estimates for the heating extent and rate of particle heating in these wave-particle interactions are shown to be in reasonable agreement with known empirical data.

Northern Hemisphere winter-like stratospheric variability in an idealized GCM using tropospheric heating perturbations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lindgren, E. A.; Sheshadri, A.; Plumb, R. A.

2017-12-01

Tropospheric heating perturbations are used to create Northern Hemisphere winter-like stratospheric variability in an idealized atmospheric GCM. Model results with wave 1 and 2 heating perturbations are compared to a model with wave 2 topography, which has previously been shown to produce a realistic sudden stratospheric warming frequency. It is found that both wave 1 and wave 2 heating perturbations cause both split and displacement sudden warmings. This is different from the wave 2 topographic forcing, which only produces splits. Furthermore, the tropospheric heating is shown to produce more reasonable annular mode timescales in the troposphere compared to the topographic forcing. It is argued that the model with wave 2 tropospheric heating perturbation is better at simulating Northern Hemisphere stratospheric variability compared to the model with wave 2 topographic forcing. The long-term variability of zonal winds in the wave 2 heating run is also investigated, under both perpetual winter conditions and with a seasonal cycle. It is found that midlatitude winds in the perpetual winter version of the model exhibit variability on timescales of around 1000 days. These variations are thought to be connected to the QBO-like oscillations in tropical winds found in the model. This connection is further explored in the seasonal cycle version of the model as well as full GCMs with QBOs, where the correlations between tropical winds and polar vortex strength are investigated.

Heat waves imposed during early pod development in soybean (Glycine max) cause significant yield loss despite a rapid recovery from oxidative stress

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

This study is the first field based experiment that uses IR heaters to study the effects of a regionally defined heat wave on soybean physiology and productivity. The heating technology was successful and all of the heat waves were maintained at the target temperature for the three day duration of t...

Enzyme Activity Dynamics in Response to Climate Change: 2011 Drought-Heat Wave

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Extreme weather events such as severe droughts and heat waves may have permanent consequences on soil quality and functioning in agroecosystems. The Southern High Plains (SHP) region of Texas, U.S., a large cotton producing area, experienced a historically extreme drought and heat wave during 2011,...

Ionospheric modifications in high frequency heating experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuo, Spencer P.

2015-01-01

Featured observations in high-frequency (HF) heating experiments conducted at Arecibo, EISCAT, and high frequency active auroral research program are discussed. These phenomena appearing in the F region of the ionosphere include high-frequency heater enhanced plasma lines, airglow enhancement, energetic electron flux, artificial ionization layers, artificial spread-F, ionization enhancement, artificial cusp, wideband absorption, short-scale (meters) density irregularities, and stimulated electromagnetic emissions, which were observed when the O-mode HF heater waves with frequencies below foF2 were applied. The implication and associated physical mechanism of each observation are discussed and explained. It is shown that these phenomena caused by the HF heating are all ascribed directly or indirectly to the excitation of parametric instabilities which instigate anomalous heating. Formulation and analysis of parametric instabilities are presented. The results show that oscillating two stream instability and parametric decay instability can be excited by the O-mode HF heater waves, transmitted from all three heating facilities, in the regions near the HF reflection height and near the upper hybrid resonance layer. The excited Langmuir waves, upper hybrid waves, ion acoustic waves, lower hybrid waves, and field-aligned density irregularities set off subsequent wave-wave and wave-electron interactions, giving rise to the observed phenomena.

Heat stress related dairy cow mortality during heat waves and control periods in rural Southern Ontario from 2010-2012.

PubMed

Bishop-Williams, Katherine E; Berke, Olaf; Pearl, David L; Hand, Karen; Kelton, David F

2015-11-27

Heat stress is a physiological response to extreme environmental heat such as heat waves. Heat stress can result in mortality in dairy cows when extreme heat is both rapidly changing and has a long duration. As a result of climate change, heat waves, which are defined as 3 days of temperatures of 32 °C or above, are an increasingly frequent extreme weather phenomenon in Southern Ontario. Heat waves are increasing the risk for on-farm dairy cow mortality in Southern Ontario. Heat stress indices (HSIs) are generally based on temperature and humidity and provide a relative measure of discomfort which can be used to predict increased risk of on-farm dairy cow mortality. In what follows, the heat stress distribution was described over space and presented with maps. Similarly, on-farm mortality was described and mapped. The goal of this study was to demonstrate that heat waves and related HSI increases during 2010-2012 were associated with increased on-farm dairy cow mortality in Southern Ontario. Mortality records and farm locations for all farms registered in the CanWest Dairy Herd Improvement Program in Southern Ontario were retrieved for 3 heat waves and 6 three-day control periods from 2010 to 2012. A random sample of controls (2:1) was taken from the data set to create a risk-based hybrid design. On-farm heat stress was estimated using data from 37 weather stations and subsequently interpolated across Southern Ontario by geostatistical kriging. A Poisson regression model was applied to assess the on-farm mortality in relation to varying levels of the HSI. For every one unit increase in HSI the on-farm mortality rate across Southern Ontario increases by 1.03 times (CI95% (IRR) = (1.025,1.035); p = ≤ 0.001). With a typical 8.6 unit increase in HSI from a control period to a heat wave, mortality rates are predicted to increase by 1.27 times. Southern Ontario was affected by heat waves, as demonstrated by high levels of heat stress and increased on-farm mortality. Farmers should be aware of these risks, and informed of appropriate methods to mitigate such risks.

A new perspective on the 1930s mega-heat waves across central United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cowan, Tim; Hegerl, Gabi

2016-04-01

The unprecedented hot and dry conditions that plagued contiguous United States during the 1930s caused widespread devastation for many local communities and severely dented the emerging economy. The heat extremes experienced during the aptly named Dust Bowl decade were not isolated incidences, but part of a tendency towards warm summers over the central United States in the early 1930s, and peaked in the boreal summer 1936. Using high-quality daily maximum and minimum temperature observations from more than 880 Global Historical Climate Network stations across the United States and southern Canada, we assess the record breaking heat waves in the 1930s Dust Bowl decade. A comparison is made to more recent heat waves that have occurred during the latter half of the 20th century (i.e., in a warming world), both averaged over selected years and across decades. We further test the ability of coupled climate models to simulate mega-heat waves (i.e. most extreme events) across the United States in a pre-industrial climate without the impact of any long-term anthropogenic warming. Well-established heat wave metrics based on the temperature percentile threshold exceedances over three or more consecutive days are used to describe variations in the frequency, duration, amplitude and timing of the events. Casual factors such as drought severity/soil moisture deficits in the lead up to the heat waves (interannual), as well as the concurrent synoptic conditions (interdiurnal) and variability in Pacific and Atlantic sea surface temperatures (decadal) are also investigated. Results suggest that while each heat wave summer in the 1930s exhibited quite unique characteristics in terms of their timing, duration, amplitude, and regional clustering, a common factor in the Dust Bowl decade was the high number of consecutive dry seasons, as measured by drought indicators such as the Palmer Drought Severity and Standardised Precipitation indices, that preceded the mega-heat waves. This suggests that land surface feedbacks, resulting from anomalously dry soil prior to summer, amplified the heat extremes triggering the mega-heat waves. Using the model experiments, we assess whether the combined warm phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation provide a necessary condition to trigger decade-long droughts that spawn mega-heat waves to cluster across consecutive summers.

Extreme heat waves under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dosio, Alessandro; Mentaschi, Lorenzo; Fischer, Erich M.; Wyser, Klaus

2018-05-01

Severe, extreme, and exceptional heat waves, such as those that occurred over the Balkans (2007), France (2003), or Russia (2010), are associated with increased mortality, human discomfort and reduced labour productivity. Based on the results of a very high-resolution global model, we show that, even at 1.5 °C warming, a significant increase in heat wave magnitude is expected over Africa, South America, and Southeast Asia. Compared to a 1.5 °C world, under 2 °C warming the frequency of extreme heat waves would double over most of the globe. In a 1.5 °C world, 13.8% of the world population will be exposed to severe heat waves at least once every 5 years. This fraction becomes nearly three times larger (36.9%) under 2 °C warming, i.e. a difference of around 1.7 billion people. Limiting global warming to 1.5 °C will also result in around 420 million fewer people being frequently exposed to extreme heat waves, and ~65 million to exceptional heat waves. Nearly 700 million people (9.0% of world population) will be exposed to extreme heat waves at least once every 20 years in a 1.5 °C world, but more than 2 billion people (28.2%) in a 2 °C world. With current emission trends threatening even the 2 °C target, our study is helpful to identify regions where limiting the warming to 1.5 °C would have the strongest benefits in reducing population exposure to extreme heat.

Exploration of high harmonic fast wave heating on the National Spherical Torus Experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, J. R.; Bell, R. E.; Bernabei, S.; Bitter, M.; Bonoli, P.; Gates, D.; Hosea, J.; LeBlanc, B.; Mau, T. K.; Medley, S.; Menard, J.; Mueller, D.; Ono, M.; Phillips, C. K.; Pinsker, R. I.; Raman, R.; Rosenberg, A.; Ryan, P.; Sabbagh, S.; Stutman, D.; Swain, D.; Takase, Y.; Wilgen, J.

2003-05-01

High harmonic fast wave (HHFW) heating has been proposed as a particularly attractive means for plasma heating and current drive in the high beta plasmas that are achievable in spherical torus (ST) devices. The National Spherical Torus Experiment (NSTX) [M. Ono, S. M. Kaye, S. Neumeyer et al., in Proceedings of the 18th IEEE/NPSS Symposium on Fusion Engineering, Albuquerque, 1999 (IEEE, Piscataway, NJ, 1999), p. 53] is such a device. An rf heating system has been installed on the NSTX to explore the physics of HHFW heating, current drive via rf waves and for use as a tool to demonstrate the attractiveness of the ST concept as a fusion device. To date, experiments have demonstrated many of the theoretical predictions for HHFW. In particular, strong wave absorption on electrons over a wide range of plasma parameters and wave parallel phase velocities, wave acceleration of energetic ions, and indications of current drive for directed wave spectra have been observed. In addition HHFW heating has been used to explore the energy transport properties of NSTX plasmas, to create H-mode discharges with a large fraction of bootstrap current and to control the plasma current profile during the early stages of the discharge.

Heat stress and public health: a critical review.

PubMed

Kovats, R Sari; Hajat, Shakoor

2008-01-01

Heat is an environmental and occupational hazard. The prevention of deaths in the community caused by extreme high temperatures (heat waves) is now an issue of public health concern. The risk of heat-related mortality increases with natural aging, but persons with particular social and/or physical vulnerability are also at risk. Important differences in vulnerability exist between populations, depending on climate, culture, infrastructure (housing), and other factors. Public health measures include health promotion and heat wave warning systems, but the effectiveness of acute measures in response to heat waves has not yet been formally evaluated. Climate change will increase the frequency and the intensity of heat waves, and a range of measures, including improvements to housing, management of chronic diseases, and institutional care of the elderly and the vulnerable, will need to be developed to reduce health impacts.

Preliminary Results From Observing The Fast Stardust Sample Return Capsule Entry In Earth's Atmosphere On January 15, 2006.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jenniskens, P.; Jordan, D.; Kontinos, D.; Wright, M.; Olejniczak, J.; Raiche, G.; Wercinski, P.; Schilling, E.; Taylor, M.; Rairden, R.; Stenbaek-Nielsen, H.; McHarg, M. G.; Abe, S.; Winter, M.

2006-08-01

In order for NASA's Stardust mission to return a comet sample to Earth, the probe was put in an orbit similar to that of Near Earth Asteroids. As a result, the reentry in Earth's atmosphere on January 15, 2006, was the fastest entry ever for a NASA spacecraft, with a speed of 12.8 km/s, similar to that of natural fireballs. A new thermal protection material, PICA, was used to protect the sample, a material that may have a future as thermal protection for the Crew Return Vehicle or for future planetary missions. An airborne and ground-based observing campaign, the "Stardust Hyperseed MAC", was organized to observe the reentry under good observing conditions, with spectroscopic and imaging techniques commonly used for meteor observations (http:// reentry.arc.nasa.gov). A spectacular video of the reentry was obtained. The spectroscopic observations measure how much light was generated in the shock wave, how that radiation added to heating the surface, how the PICA ablated as a function of altitude, and how the carbon reacted with the shock wave to form CN, a possible marker of prebiotic chemistry in natural meteors. In addition, the observations measured a transient signal of zinc and potassium early in the trajectory, from the ablation of a white paint layer that had been applied to the heat shield for thermal control. Implications for sample return and the exploration of atmospheres in future planetary missions will be discussed.

Quantification of temperature persistence over the Northern Hemisphere land-area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pfleiderer, Peter; Coumou, Dim

2017-10-01

Extreme weather events such as heat waves and floods are damaging to society and their contribution to future climate impacts is expected to be large. Such extremes are often related to persistent local weather conditions. Weather persistence is linked to sea surface temperatures, soil-moisture (especially in summer) and large-scale circulation patterns and these factors can alter under past and future climate change. Though persistence is a key characteristic for extreme weather events, to date the climatology and potential changes in persistence have only been poorly documented. Here, we present a systematic analysis of temperature persistence for the northern hemisphere land area. We define persistence as the length of consecutive warm or cold days and use spatial clustering techniques to create regional persistence distributions. We find that persistence is longest in the Arctic and shortest in the mid-latitudes. Parameterizations of the regional persistence distributions show that they are characterized by an exponential decay with a drop in the decay rate for very persistent events, implying that feedback mechanisms are important in prolonging these events. For the mid-latitudes, we find that persistence in summer has increased over the past 60 years. The changes are particularly pronounced for prolonged events suggesting a lengthening in the duration of heat waves.

Double shock front formation in cylindrical radiative blast waves produced by laser irradiation of krypton gas

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kim, I.; Quevedo, H. J.; Feldman, S.

2013-12-15

Radiative blast waves were created by irradiating a krypton cluster source from a supersonic jet with a high intensity femtosecond laser pulse. It was found that the radiation from the shock surface is absorbed in the optically thick upstream medium creating a radiative heat wave that travels supersonically ahead of the main shock. As the blast wave propagates into the heated medium, it slows and loses energy, and the radiative heat wave also slows down. When the radiative heat wave slows down to the transonic regime, a secondary shock in the ionization precursor is produced. This paper presents experimental datamore » characterizing both the initial and secondary shocks and numerical simulations to analyze the double-shock dynamics.« less

Lower solar chromosphere-corona transition region. II - Wave pressure effects for a specific form of the heating function

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Woods, D. Tod; Holzer, Thomas E.; Macgregor, Keith B.

1990-01-01

Lower transition region models with a balance between mechanical heating and radiative losses are expanded to include wave pressure effects. The models are used to study the simple damping length form of the heating function. The results are compared to the results obtained by Woods et al. (1990) for solutions in the lower transition region. The results suggest that a mixture of fast-mode and slow-mode waves may provide the appropriate heating mechanism in the lower transition region, with the decline in effective vertical wave speed caused by the refraction and eventual total reflection of the fast-mode wave resulting from the decreasing atmospheric density.

The temporal behaviour of MHD waves in a partially ionized prominence-like plasma: Effect of heating and cooling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ballester, J. L.; Carbonell, M.; Soler, R.; Terradas, J.

2018-01-01

Context. During heating or cooling processes in prominences, the plasma microscopic parameters are modified due to the change of temperature and ionization degree. Furthermore, if waves are excited on this non-stationary plasma, the changing physical conditions of the plasma also affect wave dynamics. Aims: Our aim is to study how temporal variation of temperature and microscopic plasma parameters modify the behaviour of magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) waves excited in a prominence-like hydrogen plasma. Methods: Assuming optically thin radiation, a constant external heating, the full expression of specific internal energy, and a suitable energy equation, we have derived the profiles for the temporal variation of the background temperature. We have computed the variation of the ionization degree using a Saha equation, and have linearized the single-fluid MHD equations to study the temporal behaviour of MHD waves. Results: For all the MHD waves considered, the period and damping time become time dependent. In the case of Alfvén waves, the cut-off wavenumbers also become time dependent and the attenuation rate is completely different in a cooling or heating process. In the case of slow waves, while it is difficult to distinguish the slow wave properties in a cooling partially ionized plasma from those in an almost fully ionized plasma, the period and damping time of these waves in both plasmas are completely different when the plasma is heated. The temporal behaviour of the Alfvén and fast wave is very similar in the cooling case, but in the heating case, an important difference appears that is related with the time damping. Conclusions: Our results point out important differences in the behaviour of MHD waves when the plasma is heated or cooled, and show that a correct interpretation of the observed prominence oscillations is very important in order to put accurate constraints on the physical situation of the prominence plasma under study, that is, to perform prominence seismology.

Theory of unidirectional spin heat conveyer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adachi, Hiroto; Maekawa, Sadamichi

2015-05-01

We theoretically investigate the unidirectional spin heat conveyer effect recently reported in the literature that emerges from the Damon-Eshbach spin wave on the surface of a magnetic material. We develop a simple phenomenological theory for heat transfer dynamics in a coupled system of phonons and the Damon-Eshbach spin wave, and demonstrate that there arises a direction-selective heat flow as a result of the competition between an isotropic heat diffusion by phonons and a unidirectional heat drift by the spin wave. The phenomenological approach can account for the asymmetric local temperature distribution observed in the experiment.

Theory of unidirectional spin heat conveyer

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Adachi, Hiroto, E-mail: adachi.hiroto@jaea.go.jp; Maekawa, Sadamichi

2015-05-07

We theoretically investigate the unidirectional spin heat conveyer effect recently reported in the literature that emerges from the Damon-Eshbach spin wave on the surface of a magnetic material. We develop a simple phenomenological theory for heat transfer dynamics in a coupled system of phonons and the Damon-Eshbach spin wave, and demonstrate that there arises a direction-selective heat flow as a result of the competition between an isotropic heat diffusion by phonons and a unidirectional heat drift by the spin wave. The phenomenological approach can account for the asymmetric local temperature distribution observed in the experiment.

Seal Technology for Hypersonic Vehicle and Propulsion: An Overview

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Steinetz, Bruce M.

2008-01-01

Hypersonic vehicles and propulsion systems pose an extraordinary challenge for structures and materials. Airframes and engines require lightweight, high-temperature materials and structural configurations that can withstand the extreme environment of hypersonic flight. Some of the challenges posed include very high temperatures, heating of the whole vehicle, steady-state and transient localized heating from shock waves, high aerodynamic loads, high fluctuating pressure loads, potential for severe flutter, vibration, and acoustic loads and erosion. Correspondingly high temperature seals are required to meet these aggressive requirements. This presentation reviews relevant seal technology for both heritage (e.g. Space Shuttle, X-15, and X-38) vehicles and presents several seal case studies aimed at providing lessons learned for future hypersonic vehicle seal development. This presentation also reviews seal technology developed for the National Aerospace Plane propulsion systems and presents several seal case studies aimed at providing lessons learned for future hypersonic propulsion seal development.

Skylab and solar exploration. [chromosphere-corona structure, energy production and heat transport processes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Von Puttkamer, J.

1973-01-01

Review of some of the findings concerning solar structure, energy production, and heat transport obtained with the aid of the manned Skylab space station observatory launched on May 14, 1973. Among the topics discussed are the observation of thermonuclear fusion processes which cannot be simulated on earth, the observation of short-wave solar radiation not visible to observers on earth, and the investigation of energy-transport processes occurring in the photosphere, chromosphere, and corona. An apparent paradox is noted in that the cooler chromosphere is heating the hotter corona, seemingly in defiance of the second law of thermodynamics, thus suggesting that a nonthermal mechanism underlies the energy transport. Understanding of this nonthermal mechanism is regarded as an indispensable prerequisite for future development of plasma systems for terrestrial applications.

Wave propagation model of heat conduction and group speed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Long; Zhang, Xiaomin; Peng, Song

2018-03-01

In view of the finite relaxation model of non-Fourier's law, the Cattaneo and Vernotte (CV) model and Fourier's law are presented in this work for comparing wave propagation modes. Independent variable translation is applied to solve the partial differential equation. Results show that the general form of the time spatial distribution of temperature for the three media comprises two solutions: those corresponding to the positive and negative logarithmic heating rates. The former shows that a group of heat waves whose spatial distribution follows the exponential function law propagates at a group speed; the speed of propagation is related to the logarithmic heating rate. The total speed of all the possible heat waves can be combined to form the group speed of the wave propagation. The latter indicates that the spatial distribution of temperature, which follows the exponential function law, decays with time. These features show that propagation accelerates when heated and decelerates when cooled. For the model media that follow Fourier's law and correspond to the positive heat rate of heat conduction, the propagation mode is also considered the propagation of a group of heat waves because the group speed has no upper bound. For the finite relaxation model with non-Fourier media, the interval of group speed is bounded and the maximum speed can be obtained when the logarithmic heating rate is exactly the reciprocal of relaxation time. And for the CV model with a non-Fourier medium, the interval of group speed is also bounded and the maximum value can be obtained when the logarithmic heating rate is infinite.

The Physics of Energy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jaffe, Robert L.; Taylor, Washington

2018-01-01

Part I. Basic Energy Physics and Uses: 1. Introduction; 2. Mechanical energy; 3. Electromagnetic energy; 4. Waves and light; 5. Thermodynamics I: heat and thermal energy; 6. Heat transfer; 7. Introduction to quantum physics; 8. Thermodynamics II: entropy and temperature; 9. Energy in matter; 10. Thermal energy conversion; 11. Internal combustion engines; 12. Phase-change energy conversion; 13. Thermal power and heat extraction cycles; Part II. Energy Sources: 14. The forces of nature; 15. Quantum phenomena in energy systems; 16. An overview of nuclear power; 17. Structure, properties and decays of nuclei; 18. Nuclear energy processes: fission and fusion; 19. Nuclear fission reactors and nuclear fusion experiments; 20. Ionizing radiation; 21. Energy in the universe; 22. Solar energy: solar production and radiation; 23. Solar energy: solar radiation on Earth; 24. Solar thermal energy; 25. Photovoltaic solar cells; 26. Biological energy; 27. Ocean energy flow; 28. Wind: a highly variable resource; 29. Fluids – the basics; 30. Wind turbines; 31. Energy from moving water: hydro, wave, tidal, and marine current power; 32. Geothermal energy; 33. Fossil fuels; Part III. Energy System Issues and Externalities: 34. Energy and climate; 35. Earth's climate: past, present, and future; 36. Energy efficiency, conservation, and changing energy sources; 37. Energy storage; 38. Electricity generation and transmission.

Response to droughts and heat waves of the productivity of natural and agricultural ecosystems in Europe within ISI-MIP2 historical simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

François, Louis; Henrot, Alexandra-Jane; Dury, Marie; Jacquemin, Ingrid; Munhoven, Guy; Friend, Andrew; Rademacher, Tim T.; Hacket Pain, Andrew J.; Hickler, Thomas; Tian, Hanqin; Morfopoulos, Catherine; Ostberg, Sebastian; Chang, Jinfeng; Rafique, Rashid; Nishina, Kazuya

2016-04-01

According to the projections of climate models, extreme events such as droughts and heat waves are expected to become more frequent and more severe in the future. Such events are known to severely impact the productivity of both natural and agricultural ecosystems, and hence to affect ecosystem services such as crop yield and ecosystem carbon sequestration potential. Dynamic vegetation models are conventional tools to evaluate the productivity and carbon sequestration of ecosystems and their response to climate change. However, how far are these models able to correctly represent the sensitivity of ecosystems to droughts and heat waves? How do the responses of natural and agricultural ecosystems compare to each other, in terms of drought-induced changes in productivity and carbon sequestration? In this contribution, we use ISI-MIP2 model historical simulations from the biome sector to tentatively answer these questions. Nine dynamic vegetation models have participated in the biome sector intercomparison of ISI-MIP2: CARAIB, DLEM, HYBRID, JULES, LPJ-GUESS, LPJml, ORCHIDEE, VEGAS and VISIT. We focus the analysis on well-marked droughts or heat waves that occured in Europe after 1970, such as the 1976, 2003 and 2010 events. For most recent studied events, the model results are compared to the response observed at several eddy covariance sites in Europe, and, at a larger scale, to the changes in crop productivities reported in national statistics or to the drought impacts on gross primary productivity derived from satellite data (Terra MODIS instrument). The sensitivity of the models to the climatological dataset used in the simulations, as well as to the inclusion or not of anthropogenic land use, is also analysed within the studied events. Indeed, the ISI-MIP simulations have been run with four different historical climatic forcings, as well as for several land use/land cover configurations (natural vegetation, fixed land use and variable land use).

Numerical study of heating the upper atmosphere by acoustic-gravity waves from a local source on the Earth's surface and influence of this heating on the wave propagation conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karpov, I. V.; Kshevetskii, S. P.

2017-11-01

The propagation of acoustic-gravity waves (AGW) from a source on the Earth's surface to the upper atmosphere is investigated with methods of mathematical modeling. The applied non-linear model of wave propagation in the atmosphere is based on numerical integration of a complete set of two-dimensional hydrodynamic equations. The source on the Earth's surface generates waves with frequencies near to the Brunt-Vaisala frequency. The results of simulation have revealed that some region of heating the atmosphere by propagated upward and dissipated AGWs arises above the source at altitudes nearby of 200 km. The horizontal scale of this heated region is about 1000 km in the case of the source that radiates AGWs during approximately 1 h. The appearing of the heated region has changed the conditions of AGW propagation in the atmosphere. When the heated region in the upper atmosphere has been formed, further a waveguide regime of propagation of waves with the periods shorter the Brunt-Vaisala period is realized. The upper boundary of the wave-guide coincides with the arisen heated region in the upper atmosphere. The considered mechanism of formation of large-scale disturbances in the upper atmosphere may be useful for explanation of connections of processes in the upper and lower atmospheric layers.

Spatiotemporal characteristics of heat waves over China in regional climate simulations within the CORDEX-EA project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Pinya; Tang, Jianping; Sun, Xuguang; Liu, Jianyong; Juan, Fang

2018-03-01

Using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, this paper analyzes the spatiotemporal features of heat waves in 20-year regional climate simulations over East Asia, and investigates the capability of WRF to reproduce observational heat waves in China. Within the framework of the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX), the WRF model is driven by the ERA-Interim (ERAIN) reanalysis, and five continuous simulations are conducted from 1989 to 2008. Of these, four runs apply the interior spectral nudging (SN) technique with different wavenumbers, nudging variables and nudging coefficients. Model validations show that WRF can reasonably reproduce the spatiotemporal features of heat waves in China. Compared with the experiment without SN, the application of SN is effectie on improving the skill of the model in simulating both the spatial distributions and temporal variations of heat waves of different intensities. The WRF model shows advantages in reproducing the synoptic circulations with SN and therefore yields better representations for heat wave events. Besides, the SN method is able to preserve the variability of large-scale circulations quite well, which in turn adjusts the extreme temperature variability towards the observation. Among the four SN experiments, those with stronger nudging coefficients perform better in modulating both the spatial and temporal features of heat waves. In contrast, smaller nudging coefficients weaken the effects of SN on improving WRF's performances.

Altimeter Observations of Wave Climate in the Arctic Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Babanin, A. V.; Liu, Q.; Zieger, S.

2016-02-01

Wind waves are a new physical phenomenon to the Arctic Seas, which in the past were covered with ice. Now, over summer months, ice coverage retreats up to high latitudes and waves are generated. The marginal open seas provide new opportunities and new problems. Navigation and other maritime activities become possible, but wave heights, storm surges and coastal erosion will likely increase. Air-sea interactions enter a completely new regime, with momentum, energy, heat, gas and moisture fluxes being moderated or produced by the waves, and impacting on upper-ocean mixing. All these issues require knowledge of the wave climate. We will report results of investigation of wave climate and its trends by means of satellite altimetry. This is a challenging, but important topic. On one hand, no statistical approach is possible since in the past for most of the Arctic Ocean there was limited wave activity. Extrapolations of the current observations into the future are not feasible, because ice cover and wind patterns in the Arctic are changing. On the other hand, information on the mean and extreme wave properties, such as wave height, period, direction, on the frequency of occurrence and duration of the storms is of great importance for oceanographic, meteorological, climate, naval and maritime applications in the Arctic Seas.

Implementation of the Montreal heat response plan during the 2010 heat wave.

PubMed

Price, Karine; Perron, Stéphane; King, Norman

2013-02-11

The objective of this paper is to describe Montreal's heat response plan and its application during the July 2010 heat wave. The Montreal heat response plan is designed to ensure the surveillance of weather and health indicators during the summer season and to coordinate actions to be undertaken during this period to reduce morbidity and mortality due to heat, particularly when weather thresholds are reached or an increase in health indicators is observed. It was developed to coordinate and apply intervention measures on the Island of Montreal and has been in effect since 2004. In the beginning of July 2010, Montreal experienced a heat wave that lasted 5 days. During this period, health indicators such as total mortality, prehospital emergency transports, calls to the health information line and hospital admissions were monitored by the Montreal public health surveillance system. The decision to implement emergency interventions and actions performed by regional and local public health and municipal partners (intervention level) was made following attainment of a predetermined weather threshold and increases in health indicators. The significant increase in daily observed mortality from all causes and in particular people dying at home or in the community prompted the Director of public health to conduct a chart review of all people deceased from July 5 to July 11, 2010 to determine cause of death and underlying health conditions. During the heat wave, there were 304 reported deaths from all causes in Montreal residents, of which 106 were probably or possibly heat-related. Major underlying health conditions in heat-related deaths included cardiovascular problems and mental health illness. Furthermore, in the case of people with mental illness who died during the heat wave, the chart review revealed that many were contacted 24 hours prior to their death by health care professionals, family members, neighbours or friends. Following the 2010 heat wave, the Montreal heat response plan and heat surveillance system were updated to include initiatives to better communicate preventive measures to the vulnerable populations and to intervene earlier during a heat wave.

Ash reduction system using electrically heated particulate matter filter

DOEpatents

Gonze, Eugene V [Pinckney, MI; Paratore, Jr., Michael J; He, Yongsheng [Sterling Heights, MI

2011-08-16

A control system for reducing ash comprises a temperature estimator module that estimates a temperature of an electrically heated particulate matter (PM) filter. A temperature and position estimator module estimates a position and temperature of an oxidation wave within the electrically heated PM filter. An ash reduction control module adjusts at least one of exhaust flow, fuel and oxygen levels in the electrically heated PM filter to adjust a position of the oxidation wave within the electrically heated PM filter based on the oxidation wave temperature and position.

Heat waves measured with MODIS land surface temperature data predict changes in avian community structure

Treesearch

Thomas P. Albright; Anna M. Pidgeon; Chadwick D. Rittenhouse; Murray K. Clayton; Curtis H. Flather; Patrick D. Culbert; Volker C. Radeloff

2011-01-01

Heat waves are expected to become more frequent and severe as climate changes, with unknown consequences for biodiversity. We sought to identify ecologically-relevant broad-scale indicators of heat waves based on MODIS land surface temperature (LST) and interpolated air temperature data and assess their associations with avian community structure. Specifically, we...

Soil enzyme activities during the 2011 Texas record drought/heat wave and implications to biogeochemical cycling and organic matter dynamics

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Extreme weather events such as severe droughts and heat waves may have permanent consequences on soil quality and functioning in agroecosystems. The Southern High Plains (SHP) region of Texas, U.S., a large cotton producing area, experienced a historically extreme drought and heat wave during 2011,...

Heat stress risk in India under the observed and projected 1.5 and 2.0ºC warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mishra, V.; Kumar, R.; Mukherjee, S.; AghaKouchak, A.; Stone, D. A.; Huber, M.

2017-12-01

India has witnessed some of the unprecedented heat waves that caused substantial mortality. Despite the implications of heat stress on labor efficiency, human health, and mortality, the risk of heat stress under the warming climate is largely unexplored in India. Here, using the observations, reanalysis products, and data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate models (GCMs), we show that the risk of heatwaves and heat stress has increased in India during the period of 1979-2017. Both heat waves and heat stress events have become more frequent in the majority of India except the Indo-Gangetic Plain region. In the Indo-Gangetic Plain region, the heat stress has increased while the frequency of heat waves has declined during the observed record of 1979-2017. This contrasting response of heat waves and heat stress in the Gangetic Plain region can be attributed to irrigation and atmospheric aerosols. The risk of heat stress is projected to increase manifold in the majority of India and in the Indo-Gangetic Plain under the 1.5 and 2.0ºC warming scenarios.

Changes in heat waves indices in Romania over the period 1961-2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Croitoru, Adina-Eliza; Piticar, Adrian; Ciupertea, Antoniu-Flavius; Roşca, Cristina Florina

2016-11-01

In the last two decades many climate change studies have focused on extreme temperatures as they have a significant impact on environment and society. Among the weather events generated by extreme temperatures, heat waves are some of the most harmful. The main objective of this study was to detect and analyze changes in heat waves in Romania based on daily observation data (maximum and minimum temperature) over the extended summer period (May-Sept) using a set of 10 indices and to explore the spatial patterns of changes. Heat wave data series were derived from daily maximum and minimum temperature data sets recorded in 29 weather stations across Romania over a 55-year period (1961-2015). In this study, the threshold chosen was the 90th percentile calculated based on a 15-day window centered on each calendar day, and for three baseline periods (1961-1990, 1971-2000, and 1981-2010). Two heat wave definitions were considered: at least three consecutive days when maximum temperature exceeds 90th percentile, and at least three consecutive days when minimum temperature exceeds 90th percentile. For each of them, five variables were calculated: amplitude, magnitude, number of events, duration, and frequency. Finally, 10 indices resulted for further analysis. The main results are: most of the indices have statistically significant increasing trends; only one index for one weather station indicated statistically significant decreasing trend; the changes are more intense in case of heat waves detected based on maximum temperature compared to those obtained for heat waves identified based on minimum temperature; western and central regions of Romania are the most exposed to increasing heat waves.

Anisotropic ion heating and BBELF waves within the low-altitude ion upflow region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shen, Y.; Knudsen, D. J.; Burchill, J. K.; James, H. G.; Miles, D. M.

2016-12-01

Previous studies have shown that low-energy (<10 eV) ion upflow energization processes involve multiple steps. At the initial stage, contributions from transverse-to-B ion heating by wave-particle interaction (WPI) are often underestimated. The wave-generation mechanisms, the specific wave modes leading to the ion heating, and the minimum altitude where WPI takes place remain unresolved. With this in mind, we statistically investigate the relation between anisotropic ion temperature enhancements and broadband extremely low frequency (BBELF) wave emissions within the ion upflow region using data from the Suprathermal Electron imager (SEI), the Fluxgate Magnetometer (MGF), and the Radio Receiver Instrument (RRI) onboard the e-POP satellite. Initial results demonstrate that perpendicular-to-B ion temperatures can reach up to 4.3 eV in approximately 1 km wide spatial region near 410 km altitude inside an active auroral surge. Intense small-scale field-aligned currents (FACs) as well as strong BBELF wave emissions, comprising electromagnetic waves below 80 Hz and electrostatic waves above, accompany these ion heating events. The minimum altitude of potential WPI reported here is lower than as previously suggested as 520 km by Frederick-Frost et al. 2007. We measure polarization and power spectral density for specific wave modes to explore the nature of ion heating within the BBELF waves. Acknowledgement: This research is supported by an Eyes High Doctoral Recruitment Scholarship at University of Calgary.

Heat, Heat Waves, and Hospital Admissions among the Elderly in the United States, 1992–2006

PubMed Central

Zanobetti, Antonella; Schwartz, Joel D.; Wellenius, Gregory A.; O’Neill, Marie S.

2014-01-01

Background: Heat-wave frequency, intensity, and duration are increasing with global climate change. The association between heat and mortality in the elderly is well documented, but less is known regarding associations with hospital admissions. Objectives: Our goal was to determine associations between moderate and extreme heat, heat waves, and hospital admissions for nonaccidental causes among Medicare beneficiaries ≥ 65 years of age in 114 cities across five U.S. climate zones. Methods: We used Medicare inpatient billing records and city-specific data on temperature, humidity, and ozone from 1992 through 2006 in a time-stratified case-crossover design to estimate the association between hospitalization and moderate [90th percentile of apparent temperature (AT)] and extreme (99th percentile of AT) heat and heat waves (AT above the 95th percentile over 2–8 days). In sensitivity analyses, we additionally considered confounding by ozone and holidays, different temperature metrics, and alternate models of the exposure–response relationship. Results: Associations between moderate heat and hospital admissions were minimal, but extreme heat was associated with a 3% (95% CI: 2%, 4%) increase in all-cause hospital admissions over the subsequent 8 days. In cause-specific analyses, extreme heat was associated with increased hospitalizations for renal (15%; 95% CI: 9%, 21%) and respiratory (4%; 95% CI: 2%, 7%) diseases, but not for cardiovascular diseases. An added heat-wave effect was observed for renal and respiratory admissions. Conclusion: Extreme heat is associated with increased hospital admissions, particularly for renal causes, among the elderly in the United States. Citation: Gronlund CJ, Zanobetti A, Schwartz JD, Wellenius GA, O’Neill MS. 2014. Heat, heat waves, and hospital admissions among the elderly in the United States, 1992–2006. Environ Health Perspect 122:1187–1192; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1206132 PMID:24905551

Exploration of High Harmonic Fast Wave Heating on the National Spherical Torus Experiment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

J.R. Wilson; R.E. Bell; S. Bernabei

2003-02-11

High Harmonic Fast Wave (HHFW) heating has been proposed as a particularly attractive means for plasma heating and current drive in the high-beta plasmas that are achievable in spherical torus (ST) devices. The National Spherical Torus Experiment (NSTX) [Ono, M., Kaye, S.M., Neumeyer, S., et al., Proceedings, 18th IEEE/NPSS Symposium on Fusion Engineering, Albuquerque, 1999, (IEEE, Piscataway, NJ (1999), p. 53.)] is such a device. An radio-frequency (rf) heating system has been installed on NSTX to explore the physics of HHFW heating, current drive via rf waves and for use as a tool to demonstrate the attractiveness of the STmore » concept as a fusion device. To date, experiments have demonstrated many of the theoretical predictions for HHFW. In particular, strong wave absorption on electrons over a wide range of plasma parameters and wave parallel phase velocities, wave acceleration of energetic ions, and indications of current drive for directed wave spectra have been observed. In addition HHFW heating has been used to explore the energy transport properties of NSTX plasmas, to create H-mode (high-confinement mode) discharges with a large fraction of bootstrap current and to control the plasma current profile during the early stages of the discharge.« less

Simulations of the Mg II K and Ca II 8542 Lines From an Alfvén Wave-Heated Flare Chromosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kerr, Graham S.; Fletcher, Lyndsay; Russell, Alexander J. B.; Allred, Joel C.

2016-01-01

We use radiation hydrodynamic simulations to examine two models of solar flare chromospheric heating: Alfven wave dissipation and electron beam collisional losses. Both mechanisms are capable of strong chromospheric heating, and we show that the distinctive atmospheric evolution in the mid-to-upper chromosphere results in Mg II k-line emission that should be observably different between wave-heated and beam-heated simulations. We also present Ca II 8542 A profiles that are formed slightly deeper in the chromosphere. The Mg II k-line profiles from our wave-heated simulation are quite different from those from a beam-heated model and are more consistent with Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph observations. The predicted differences between the Ca II 8542 A in the two models are small. We conclude that careful observational and theoretical study of lines formed in the mid-to-upper chromosphere holds genuine promise for distinguishing between competing models for chromospheric heating inflares.

Mapping the Decadal Spatio-temporal Variation of Social Vulnerability to Hydro-climatic Extremes over India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

H, V.; Karmakar, S.; Ghosh, S.

2015-12-01

Human induced global warming is unequivocal and observational studies shows that, this has led to increase in the intensity and frequency of hydro-climatic extremes, most importantly precipitation extreme, heat waves and drought; and also is expected to be increased in the future. The occurrence of these extremes have a devastating effects on nation's economy and on societal well-being. Previous studies on India provided the evidences of significant changes in the precipitation extreme from pre- to post-1950, with huge spatial heterogeneity; and projections of heat waves indicated that significant part of India will experience heat stress conditions in the future. Under these circumstance, it is necessary to develop a nation-wide social vulnerability map to scrutinize the adequacy of existing emergency management. Yet there has been no systematic past efforts on mapping social vulnerability to hydro-climatic extremes at nation-wide for India. Therefore, immediate efforts are required to quantify the social vulnerability, particularly developing country like India, where major transformations in demographic characteristics and development patterns are evident during past decades. In the present study, we perform a comprehensive spatio-temporal social vulnerability analysis by considering multiple sensitive indicators for three decades (1990-2010) which identifies the hot-spots, with higher vulnerability to hydro-climatic extremes. The population datasets are procured from Census of India and the meteorological datasets are obtained from India Meteorological Department (IMD). The study derives interesting results on decadal changes of spatial distribution of risk, considering social vulnerability and hazard to extremes.

Low-Frequency Waves in HF Heating of the Ionosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharma, A. S.; Eliasson, B.; Milikh, G. M.; Najmi, A.; Papadopoulos, K.; Shao, X.; Vartanyan, A.

2016-02-01

Ionospheric heating experiments have enabled an exploration of the ionosphere as a large-scale natural laboratory for the study of many plasma processes. These experiments inject high-frequency (HF) radio waves using high-power transmitters and an array of ground- and space-based diagnostics. This chapter discusses the excitation and propagation of low-frequency waves in HF heating of the ionosphere. The theoretical aspects and the associated models and simulations, and the results from experiments, mostly from the HAARP facility, are presented together to provide a comprehensive interpretation of the relevant plasma processes. The chapter presents the plasma model of the ionosphere for describing the physical processes during HF heating, the numerical code, and the simulations of the excitation of low-frequency waves by HF heating. It then gives the simulations of the high-latitude ionosphere and mid-latitude ionosphere. The chapter also briefly discusses the role of kinetic processes associated with wave generation.

Numerical Modeling of Electroacoustic Logging Including Joule Heating

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Plyushchenkov, Boris D.; Nikitin, Anatoly A.; Turchaninov, Victor I.

It is well known that electromagnetic field excites acoustic wave in a porous elastic medium saturated with fluid electrolyte due to electrokinetic conversion effect. Pride's equations describing this process are written in isothermal approximation. Update of these equations, which allows to take influence of Joule heating on acoustic waves propagation into account, is proposed here. This update includes terms describing the initiation of additional acoustic waves excited by thermoelastic stresses and the heat conduction equation with right side defined by Joule heating. Results of numerical modeling of several problems of propagation of acoustic waves excited by an electric field source with and without consideration of Joule heating effect in their statements are presented. From these results, it follows that influence of Joule heating should be taken into account at the numerical simulation of electroacoustic logging and at the interpretation of its log data.

Identifying Heat Waves in Florida: Considerations of Missing Weather Data

PubMed Central

Leary, Emily; Young, Linda J.; DuClos, Chris; Jordan, Melissa M.

2015-01-01

Background Using current climate models, regional-scale changes for Florida over the next 100 years are predicted to include warming over terrestrial areas and very likely increases in the number of high temperature extremes. No uniform definition of a heat wave exists. Most past research on heat waves has focused on evaluating the aftermath of known heat waves, with minimal consideration of missing exposure information. Objectives To identify and discuss methods of handling and imputing missing weather data and how those methods can affect identified periods of extreme heat in Florida. Methods In addition to ignoring missing data, temporal, spatial, and spatio-temporal models are described and utilized to impute missing historical weather data from 1973 to 2012 from 43 Florida weather monitors. Calculated thresholds are used to define periods of extreme heat across Florida. Results Modeling of missing data and imputing missing values can affect the identified periods of extreme heat, through the missing data itself or through the computed thresholds. The differences observed are related to the amount of missingness during June, July, and August, the warmest months of the warm season (April through September). Conclusions Missing data considerations are important when defining periods of extreme heat. Spatio-temporal methods are recommended for data imputation. A heat wave definition that incorporates information from all monitors is advised. PMID:26619198

Identifying Heat Waves in Florida: Considerations of Missing Weather Data.

PubMed

Leary, Emily; Young, Linda J; DuClos, Chris; Jordan, Melissa M

2015-01-01

Using current climate models, regional-scale changes for Florida over the next 100 years are predicted to include warming over terrestrial areas and very likely increases in the number of high temperature extremes. No uniform definition of a heat wave exists. Most past research on heat waves has focused on evaluating the aftermath of known heat waves, with minimal consideration of missing exposure information. To identify and discuss methods of handling and imputing missing weather data and how those methods can affect identified periods of extreme heat in Florida. In addition to ignoring missing data, temporal, spatial, and spatio-temporal models are described and utilized to impute missing historical weather data from 1973 to 2012 from 43 Florida weather monitors. Calculated thresholds are used to define periods of extreme heat across Florida. Modeling of missing data and imputing missing values can affect the identified periods of extreme heat, through the missing data itself or through the computed thresholds. The differences observed are related to the amount of missingness during June, July, and August, the warmest months of the warm season (April through September). Missing data considerations are important when defining periods of extreme heat. Spatio-temporal methods are recommended for data imputation. A heat wave definition that incorporates information from all monitors is advised.

Responses of tree species to heat waves and extreme heat events.

PubMed

Teskey, Robert; Wertin, Timothy; Bauweraerts, Ingvar; Ameye, Maarten; McGuire, Mary Anne; Steppe, Kathy

2015-09-01

The number and intensity of heat waves has increased, and this trend is likely to continue throughout the 21st century. Often, heat waves are accompanied by drought conditions. It is projected that the global land area experiencing heat waves will double by 2020, and quadruple by 2040. Extreme heat events can impact a wide variety of tree functions. At the leaf level, photosynthesis is reduced, photooxidative stress increases, leaves abscise and the growth rate of remaining leaves decreases. In some species, stomatal conductance increases at high temperatures, which may be a mechanism for leaf cooling. At the whole plant level, heat stress can decrease growth and shift biomass allocation. When drought stress accompanies heat waves, the negative effects of heat stress are exacerbated and can lead to tree mortality. However, some species exhibit remarkable tolerance to thermal stress. Responses include changes that minimize stress on photosynthesis and reductions in dark respiration. Although there have been few studies to date, there is evidence of within-species genetic variation in thermal tolerance, which could be important to exploit in production forestry systems. Understanding the mechanisms of differing tree responses to extreme temperature events may be critically important for understanding how tree species will be affected by climate change. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The impact of temperature on mortality in a subtropical city: effects of cold, heat, and heat waves in São Paulo, Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Son, Ji-Young; Gouveia, Nelson; Bravo, Mercedes A.; de Freitas, Clarice Umbelino; Bell, Michelle L.

2016-01-01

Understanding how weather impacts health is critical, especially under a changing climate; however, relatively few studies have investigated subtropical regions. We examined how mortality in São Paulo, Brazil, is affected by cold, heat, and heat waves over 14.5 years (1996-2010). We used over-dispersed generalized linear modeling to estimate heat- and cold-related mortality, and Bayesian hierarchical modeling to estimate overall effects and modification by heat wave characteristics (intensity, duration, and timing in season). Stratified analyses were performed by cause of death and individual characteristics (sex, age, education, marital status, and place of death). Cold effects on mortality appeared higher than heat effects in this subtropical city with moderate climatic conditions. Heat was associated with respiratory mortality and cold with cardiovascular mortality. Risk of total mortality was 6.1 % (95 % confidence interval 4.7, 7.6 %) higher at the 99th percentile of temperature than the 90th percentile (heat effect) and 8.6 % (6.2, 11.1 %) higher at the 1st compared to the 10th percentile (cold effect). Risks were higher for females and those with no education for heat effect, and males for cold effect. Older persons, widows, and non-hospital deaths had higher mortality risks for heat and cold. Mortality during heat waves was higher than on non-heat wave days for total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality. Our findings indicate that mortality in São Paulo is associated with both cold and heat and that some subpopulations are more vulnerable.

Can riparian vegetation shade mitigate the expected rise in stream temperatures due to climate change during heat waves in a human-impacted pre-alpine river?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trimmel, Heidelinde; Weihs, Philipp; Leidinger, David; Formayer, Herbert; Kalny, Gerda; Melcher, Andreas

2018-01-01

Global warming has already affected European rivers and their aquatic biota, and climate models predict an increase of temperature in central Europe over all seasons. We simulated the influence of expected changes in heat wave intensity during the 21st century on water temperatures of a heavily impacted pre-alpine Austrian river and analysed future mitigating effects of riparian vegetation shade on radiant and turbulent energy fluxes using the deterministic Heat Source model. Modelled stream water temperature increased less than 1.5 °C within the first half of the century. Until 2100, a more significant increase of around 3 °C in minimum, maximum and mean stream temperatures was predicted for a 20-year return period heat event. The result showed clearly that in a highly altered river system riparian vegetation was not able to fully mitigate the predicted temperature rise caused by climate change but would be able to reduce water temperature by 1 to 2 °C. The removal of riparian vegetation amplified stream temperature increases. Maximum stream temperatures could increase by more than 4 °C even in annual heat events. Such a dramatic water temperature shift of some degrees, especially in summer, would indicate a total shift of aquatic biodiversity. The results demonstrate that effective river restoration and mitigation require re-establishing riparian vegetation and emphasize the importance of land-water interfaces and their ecological functioning in aquatic environments.

Public crowdsensing of heat waves by social media data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grasso, Valentina; Crisci, Alfonso; Morabito, Marco; Nesi, Paolo; Pantaleo, Gianni

2017-07-01

Investigating on society-related heat wave hazards is a global issue concerning the people health. In the last two decades, Europe experienced several severe heat wave episodes with catastrophic effects in term of human mortality (2003, 2010 and 2015). Recent climate investigations confirm that this threat will represent a key issue for the resiliency of urban communities in next decades. Several important mitigation actions (Heat-Health Action Plans) against heat hazards have been already implemented in some WHO (World Health Organization) European region member states to encourage preparedness and response to extreme heat events. Nowadays, social media (SM) offer new opportunities to indirectly measure the impact of heat waves on society. Using the crowdsensing concept, a micro-blogging platform like Twitter may be used as a distributed network of mobile sensors that react to external events by exchanging messages (tweets). This work presents a preliminary analysis of tweets related to heat waves that occurred in Italy in summer 2015. Using TwitterVigilance dashboard, developed by the University of Florence, a sample of tweets related to heat conditions was retrieved, stored and analyzed for main features. Significant associations between the daily increase in tweets and extreme temperatures were presented. The daily volume of Twitter users and messages revealed to be a valuable indicator of heat wave impact at the local level, in urban areas. Furthermore, with the help of Generalized Additive Model (GAM), the volume of tweets in certain locations has been used to estimate thresholds of local discomfort conditions. These city-specific thresholds are the result of dissimilar climatic conditions and risk cultures.

Characterizing a Model of Coronal Heating and Solar Wind Acceleration Based on Wave Turbulence.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Downs, C.; Lionello, R.; Mikic, Z.; Linker, J.; Velli, M.

2014-12-01

Understanding the nature of coronal heating and solar wind acceleration is a key goal in solar and heliospheric research. While there have been many theoretical advances in both topics, including suggestions that they may be intimately related, the inherent scale coupling and complexity of these phenomena limits our ability to construct models that test them on a fundamental level for realistic solar conditions. At the same time, there is an ever increasing impetus to improve our spaceweather models, and incorporating treatments for these processes that capture their basic features while remaining tractable is an important goal. With this in mind, I will give an overview of our exploration of a wave-turbulence driven (WTD) model for coronal heating and solar wind acceleration based on low-frequency Alfvénic turbulence. Here we attempt to bridge the gap between theory and practical modeling by exploring this model in 1D HD and multi-dimensional MHD contexts. The key questions that we explore are: What properties must the model possess to be a viable model for coronal heating? What is the influence of the magnetic field topology (open, closed, rapidly expanding)? And can we simultaneously capture coronal heating and solar wind acceleration with such a quasi-steady formulation? Our initial results suggest that a WTD based formulation performs adequately for a variety of solar and heliospheric conditions, while significantly reducing the number of free parameters when compared to empirical heating and solar wind models. The challenges, applications, and future prospects of this type of approach will also be discussed.

The Role of Hydromagnetic Waves in the Magnetosphere and the Ionosphere

DTIC Science & Technology

1988-05-01

ionospheric heating ex- ( MINIX ) was carried out recently by the Kyoto Uni- periments [Stubbe and Kopka, 198! Stubbe et al., versity group in Japan to...ionospheric irregularities and other predicted netosphere with growth times of a few minutes. Our phenomena could not be produced in MINIX be- work...ionosphere: Project- HF produced electron density irregularities in the polar iono- MINIX for future solar power satellite, paper presented at 21st

Multiple mortality events in bats: a global review

USGS Publications Warehouse

O'Shea, Thomas J.; Cryan, Paul; Hayman, David TH; Plowright, Raina K.; Streicker, Daniel G.

2016-01-01

Collectively, over half of all reported MMEs were of anthropogenic origin. The documented occurrence of MMEs in bats due to abiotic factors such as intense storms, flooding, heat waves, and drought is likely to increase in the future with climate change. Coupled with the chronic threats of roosting and foraging habitat loss, increasing mortality through MMEs is unlikely to be compensated for, given the need for high survival in the dynamics of bat populations.

Al 1s-2p absorption spectroscopy of shock-wave heating and compression in laser-driven planar foil

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sawada, H.; Regan, S. P.; Radha, P. B.

Time-resolved Al 1s-2p absorption spectroscopy is used to diagnose direct-drive, shock-wave heating and compression of planar targets having nearly Fermi-degenerate plasma conditions (T{sub e}{approx}10-40 eV, {rho}{approx}3-11 g/cm{sup 3}) on the OMEGA Laser System [T. R. Boehly et al., Opt. Commun. 133, 495 (1997)]. A planar plastic foil with a buried Al tracer layer was irradiated with peak intensities of 10{sup 14}-10{sup 15} W/cm{sup 2} and probed with the pseudocontinuum M-band emission from a point-source Sm backlighter in the range of 1.4-1.7 keV. The laser ablation process launches 10-70 Mbar shock waves into the CH/Al/CH target. The Al 1s-2p absorption spectramore » were analyzed using the atomic physic code PRISMSPECT to infer T{sub e} and {rho} in the Al layer, assuming uniform plasma conditions during shock-wave heating, and to determine when the heat front penetrated the Al layer. The drive foils were simulated with the one-dimensional hydrodynamics code LILAC using a flux-limited (f=0.06 and f=0.1) and nonlocal thermal-transport model [V. N. Goncharov et al., Phys. Plasmas 13, 012702 (2006)]. The predictions of simulated shock-wave heating and the timing of heat-front penetration are compared to the observations. The experimental results for a wide variety of laser-drive conditions and buried depths have shown that the LILAC predictions using f=0.06 and the nonlocal model accurately model the shock-wave heating and timing of the heat-front penetration while the shock is transiting the target. The observed discrepancy between the measured and simulated shock-wave heating at late times of the drive can be explained by the reduced radiative heating due to lateral heat flow in the corona.« less

Al 1s-2p Absorption Spectroscopy of Shock-Wave Heating and Compression in Laser-Driven Planar Foil

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sawada, H.; Regan, S.P.; Radha, P.B.

Time-resolved Al 1s-2p absorption spectroscopy is used to diagnose direct-drive, shock-wave heating and compression of planar targets having nearly Fermi-degenerate plasma conditions (Te ~ 10–40 eV, rho ~ 3–11 g/cm^3) on the OMEGA Laser System [T. R. Boehly et al., Opt. Commun. 133, 495 (1997)]. A planar plastic foil with a buried Al tracer layer was irradiated with peak intensities of 10^14–10^15 W/cm^2 and probed with the pseudocontinuum M-band emission from a point-source Sm backlighter in the range of 1.4–1.7 keV. The laser ablation process launches 10–70 Mbar shock waves into the CH/Al/CH target. The Al 1s-2p absorption spectra weremore » analyzed using the atomic physic code PRISMSPECT to infer Te and rho in the Al layer, assuming uniform plasma conditions during shock-wave heating, and to determine when the heat front penetrated the Al layer. The drive foils were simulated with the one-dimensional hydrodynamics code LILAC using a flux-limited (f =0.06 and f =0.1) and nonlocal thermal-transport model [V. N. Goncharov et al., Phys. Plasmas 13, 012702 (2006)]. The predictions of simulated shock-wave heating and the timing of heat-front penetration are compared to the observations. The experimental results for a wide variety of laser-drive conditions and buried depths have shown that the LILAC predictions using f = 0.06 and the nonlocal model accurately model the shock-wave heating and timing of the heat-front penetration while the shock is transiting the target. The observed discrepancy between the measured and simulated shock-wave heating at late times of the drive can be explained by the reduced radiative heating due to lateral heat flow in the corona.« less

Was there a basis for anticipating the 2010 Russian heat wave?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dole, Randall; Hoerling, Martin; Perlwitz, Judith; Eischeid, Jon; Pegion, Philip; Zhang, Tao; Quan, Xiao-Wei; Xu, Taiyi; Murray, Donald

2011-03-01

The 2010 summer heat wave in western Russia was extraordinary, with the region experiencing the warmest July since at least 1880 and numerous locations setting all-time maximum temperature records. This study explores whether early warning could have been provided through knowledge of natural and human-caused climate forcings. Model simulations and observational data are used to determine the impact of observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs), sea ice conditions and greenhouse gas concentrations. Analysis of forced model simulations indicates that neither human influences nor other slowly evolving ocean boundary conditions contributed substantially to the magnitude of this heat wave. They also provide evidence that such an intense event could be produced through natural variability alone. Analysis of observations indicate that this heat wave was mainly due to internal atmospheric dynamical processes that produced and maintained a strong and long-lived blocking event, and that similar atmospheric patterns have occurred with prior heat waves in this region. We conclude that the intense 2010 Russian heat wave was mainly due to natural internal atmospheric variability. Slowly varying boundary conditions that could have provided predictability and the potential for early warning did not appear to play an appreciable role in this event.

Multi-Species Test of Ion Cyclotron Resonance Heating at High Altitudes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Persoon, A. M.; Peterson, W. K.; Andre, M.; Chang, T.; Gurnett, D. A.; Retterer, J. M.; Crew, G. B.

1997-01-01

Observations of ion distributions and plasma waves obtained by the Dynamics Explorer 1 satellite in the high-altitude, nightside auroral zone are used to study ion energization for three ion species. A number of theoretical models have been proposed to account for the transverse heating of these ion populations. One of these, the ion cyclotron resonance heating (ICRH) mechanism, explains ion conic formation through ion cyclotron resonance with broadband electromagnetic wave turbulence in the vicinity of the characteristic ion cyclotron frequency. The cyclotron resonant heating of the ions by low- frequency electromagnetic waves is an important energy source for the transport of ions from the ionosphere to the magnetosphere. In this paper we test the applicability of the ICRH mechanism to three simultaneously heated and accelerated ion species by modelling the ion conic formation in terms of a resonant wave-particle interaction in which the ions extract energy from the portion of the broadband electromagnetic wave spectrum which includes the ion cyclotron frequency. Using a Monte Carlo technique we evaluate the ion heating produced by the electromagnetic turbulence at low frequencies and find that the wave amplitudes near the ion cyclotron frequencies are sufficient to explain the observed ion energies.

Multi-Species Test of Ion Cyclotron Resonance Heating at High Altitudes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Persoon, A. M.; Peterson, W. K.; Andre, M.; Chang, T.; Gurnett, D. A.; Retterer, J. M.; Crew, G. B.

1997-01-01

Observations of ion distributions and plasma waves obtained by the Dynamics Explorer 1 satellite in the high-altitude, nightside auroral zone are used to study ion energization for three ion species. A number of theoretical models have been proposed to account for the transverse heating of these ion populations. One of these, the ion cyclotron resonance heating (ICRH) mechanism, explains ion conic formation through ion cyclotron resonance with broadband electromagnetic wave turbulence in the vicinity of the characteristic ion cyclotron frequency. The cyclotron resonant heating of the ions by low-frequency electromagnetic waves is an important energy source for the transport of ions from the ionosphere to the magnetosphere. In this paper we test the applicability of the ICRH mechanism to three simultaneously heated and accelerated ion species by modelling the ion conic formation in terms of a resonant wave-particle interaction in which the ions extract energy from the portion of the broadband electromagnetic wave spectrum which includes the ion cyclotron frequency. Using a Monte Carlo technique we evaluate the ion heating produced by the electromagnetic turbulence at low frequencies and find that the wave amplitudes near the ion cyclotron frequencies are sufficient to explain the observed ion energies.

Forecasting extreme temperature health hazards in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Di Napoli, Claudia; Pappenberger, Florian; Cloke, Hannah L.

2017-04-01

Extreme hot temperatures, such as those experienced during a heat wave, represent a dangerous meteorological hazard to human health. Heat disorders such as sunstroke are harmful to people of all ages and responsible for excess mortality in the affected areas. In 2003 more than 50,000 people died in western and southern Europe because of a severe and sustained episode of summer heat [1]. Furthermore, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change heat waves are expected to get more frequent in the future thus posing an increasing threat to human lives. Developing appropriate tools for extreme hot temperatures prediction is therefore mandatory to increase public preparedness and mitigate heat-induced impacts. A recent study has shown that forecasts of the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) provide a valid overview of extreme temperature health hazards on a global scale [2]. UTCI is a parameter related to the temperature of the human body and its regulatory responses to the surrounding atmospheric environment. UTCI is calculated using an advanced thermo-physiological model that includes the human heat budget, physiology and clothing. To forecast UTCI the model uses meteorological inputs, such as 2m air temperature, 2m water vapour pressure and wind velocity at body height derived from 10m wind speed, from NWP models. Here we examine the potential of UTCI as an extreme hot temperature prediction tool for the European area. UTCI forecasts calculated using above-mentioned parameters from ECMWF models are presented. The skill in predicting UTCI for medium lead times is also analysed and discussed for implementation to international health-hazard warning systems. This research is supported by the ANYWHERE project (EnhANcing emergencY management and response to extreme WeatHER and climate Events) which is funded by the European Commission's HORIZON2020 programme. [1] Koppe C. et al., Heat waves: risks and responses. World Health Organization. Health and Global Environmental Change, Series No. 2, Copenhagen, Denmark, 2004. [2] Pappenberger F. et al., Global forecasting of thermal health hazards: the skill of probabilistic predictions of the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI), International Journal of Biometeorology 59(3): 311-323, 2015.

Coupling of an acoustic wave to shear motion due to viscous heating

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Liu, Bin; Goree, J.

2016-07-15

Viscous heating due to shear motion in a plasma can result in the excitation of a longitudinal acoustic wave, if the shear motion is modulated in time. The coupling mechanism is a thermal effect: time-dependent shear motion causes viscous heating, which leads to a rarefaction that can couple into a longitudinal wave, such as an acoustic wave. This coupling mechanism is demonstrated in an electrostatic three-dimensional (3D) simulation of a dusty plasma, in which a localized shear flow is initiated as a pulse, resulting in a delayed outward propagation of a longitudinal acoustic wave. This coupling effect can be profoundmore » in plasmas that exhibit localized viscous heating, such as the dusty plasma we simulated using parameters typical of the PK-4 experiment. We expect that a similar phenomenon can occur with other kinds of plasma waves.« less

Chapter 5: Waves and Oscillations in the Solar Atmosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Erdélyi, Robert

2008-10-01

The actual operating heating process that generates and sustains the hot solar corona has so far defied a quantitative understanding despite efforts spanning over half a century. Particular attention is paid here towards the exploration of the coronal heating problem from the perspectives of MHD waves and oscillations. Do MHD waves play any role in the heating of the solar atmosphere? In order to attempt answering this question, first we need do embark on the key properties of the heating of the solar atmosphere...

Contrasting Heat Budget Dynamics During Two La Niña Marine Heat Wave Events Along Northwestern Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Jiangtao; Lowe, Ryan J.; Ivey, Gregory N.; Jones, Nicole L.; Zhang, Zhenling

2018-02-01

Two marine heat wave events along Western Australia (WA) during the alternate austral summer periods of 2010/2011 and 2012/2013, both linked to La Niña conditions, severely impacted marine ecosystems over more than 12° of latitude, which included the unprecedented bleaching of many coral reefs. Although these two heat waves were forced by similar large-scale climate drivers, the warming patterns differed substantially between events. The central coast of WA (south of 22°S) experienced greater warming in 2010/2011, whereas the northwestern coast of WA experienced greater warming in 2012/2013. To investigate how oceanic and atmospheric heat exchange processes drove these different spatial patterns, an analysis of the ocean heat budget was conducted by integrating remote sensing observations, in situ mooring data, and a high-resolution (˜1 km) ocean circulation model (Regional Ocean Modeling System). The results revealed substantial spatial differences in the relative contributions made by heat advection and air-sea heat exchange between the two heat wave events. During 2010/2011, anomalous warming driven by heat advection was present throughout the region but was much stronger south of 22°S where the poleward-flowing Leeuwin Current strengthens. During 2012/2013, air-sea heat exchange had a much more positive (warming) influence on sea surface temperatures (especially in the northwest), and when combined with a more positive contribution of heat advection in the north, this can explain the regional differences in warming between these two La Niña-associated marine heat wave events.

The role of local heating in the 2015 Indian heat wave

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

India faced a major heat wave during the summer of 2015. Temperature anomalies peaked in the dry period before the onset of the summer monsoon, suggesting that local land-atmosphere feedbacks involving desiccated soils and vegetation might have played a role in driving the heat extreme. Upon examina...

Ex situ themo-catalytic upgrading of biomass pyrolysis vapors using a traveling wave microwave reactor

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Microwave heating offers a number of advantages over conventional heating methods, such as, rapid and volumetric heating, precise temperature control, energy efficiency and lower temperature gradient. In this article we demonstrate the use of 2450 MHz microwave traveling wave reactor to heat the cat...

Effect of Local Thermal Equilibrium Misbalance on Long-wavelength Slow Magnetoacoustic Waves

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nakariakov, V. M.; Afanasyev, A. N.; Kumar, S.

Evolution of slow magnetoacoustic waves guided by a cylindrical magnetic flux tube that represents a coronal loop or plume, is modeled accounting for the effects of finite gas pressure, weak nonlinearity, dissipation by thermal conduction and viscosity, and the misbalance between the cooling by optically thin radiation and unspecified heating of the plasma. An evolutionary equation of the Burgers–Malthus type is derived. It is shown that the cooling/heating misbalance, determined by the derivatives of the combined radiative cooling and heating function, with respect to the density, temperature, and magnetic field at the thermal equilibrium affect the wave rather strongly. Thismore » effect may either cause additional damping, or counteract it, or lead to the gradual amplification of the wave. In the latter case, the coronal plasma acts as an active medium for the slow magnetoacoustic waves. The effect of the cooling/heating misbalance could be important for coronal slow waves, and could be responsible for certain discrepancies between theoretical results and observations, in particular, the increased or decreased damping lengths and times, detection of the waves at certain heights only, and excitation of compressive oscillations. The results obtained open up a possibility for the diagnostics of the coronal heating function by slow magnetoacoustic waves.« less

A New Global Multi-fluid MHD Model of the Solar Corona

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van der Holst, B.; Chandran, B. D. G.; Alterman, B. L.; Kasper, J. C.; Toth, G.

2017-12-01

We present a multi-fluid generalization of the AWSoM model, a global magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) solar corona model with low-frequency Alfven wave turbulence (van der Holst et al., 2014). This new extended model includes electron and multi-ion temperatures and velocities (protons and alpha particles). The coronal heating and acceleration is addressed via outward propagating low-frequency Alfven waves that are partially reflected by Alfven speed gradients. The nonlinear interaction of these counter-propagating waves results in turbulent energy cascade. To apportion the wave dissipation to the electron and ion temperatures, we employ the results of the theories of linear wave damping and nonlinear stochastic heating as described by Chandran et al. (2011, 2013). This heat partitioning results in a more than mass proportional heating among ions.

Acceleration and heating of two-fluid solar wind by Alfven waves

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sandbaek, Ornulf; Leer, Egil

1994-01-01

Earlier model studies of solar wind driven by thermal pressure and Alfven waves have shown that wave amplitudes of 20-30 km/s at the coronal base are sufficient to accelerate the flow to the high speeds observed in quasi-steady streams emanating from large coronal holes. We focus on the energy balance in the proton gas and show that heat conduction from the region where the waves are dissipated may play an important role in determining the proton temperature at the orbit of Earth. In models with 'classical' heat conduction we find a correlation between high flow speed, high proton temperature, and low electron temperature at 1 AU. The effect of wave heating on the development of anisotropies in the solar wind proton gas pressure is also investigated in this study.

Experimental Study of Shock Wave Interference Heating on a Cylindrical Leading Edge. Ph.D. Thesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wieting, Allan R.

1987-01-01

An experimental study of shock wave interference heating on a cylindrical leading edge representative of the cowl of a rectangular hypersonic engine inlet at Mach numbers of 6.3, 6.5, and 8.0 is presented. Stream Reynolds numbers ranged from 0.5 x 106 to 4.9 x 106 per ft. and stream total temperature ranged from 2100 to 3400 R. The model consisted of a 3" dia. cylinder and a shock generation wedge articulated to angles of 10, 12.5, and 15 deg. A fundamental understanding was obtained of the fluid mechanics of shock wave interference induced flow impingement on a cylindrical leading edge and the attendant surface pressure and heat flux distributions. The first detailed heat transfer rate and pressure distributions for two dimensional shock wave interference on a cylinder was provided along with insight into the effects of specific heat variation with temperature on the phenomena. Results show that the flow around a body in hypersonic flow is altered significantly by the shock wave interference pattern that is created by an oblique shock wave from an external source intersecting the bow shock wave produced in front of the body.

Variations in Temperature at the Base of the Lithosphere Beneath the Archean Superior Province, Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mareschal, J.; Jaupart, C. P.

2013-12-01

Most of the variations in surface heat flux in stable continents are caused by variations in crustal heat production, with an almost uniform heat flux at the base of the crust ( 15+/-3 mW/m2). Such relatively small differences in Moho heat flux cannot be resolved by heat flow data alone, but they lead to important lateral variations in lithospheric temperatures and thicknesses. In order to better constrain temperatures in the lower lithosphere, we have combined surface heat flow and heat production data from the southern Superior Province in Canada with vertical shear wave velocity profiles obtained from surface wave inversion. We use the Monte-Carlo method to generate lithospheric temperature profiles from which shear wave velocity can be calculated for a given mantle composition. We eliminate thermal models which yield lithospheric and sub-lithospheric velocities that do not fit the shear wave velocity profile. Surface heat flux being constrained, the free parameters of the thermal model are: the mantle heat flux, the mantle heat production, the crustal differentiation index (ratio of surface to bulk crustal heat production) and the temperature of the mantle isentrope. Two conclusions emerge from this study. One is that, for some profiles, the vertical variations in shear wave velocities cannot be accounted for by temperature alone but also require compositional changes within the lithosphere. The second is that there are long wavelength horizontal variations in mantle temperatures (~80-100K) at the base of the lithosphere and in the mantle below

Interactions between gravity waves and cold air outflows in a stably stratified uniform flow

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lin, Yuh-Lang; Wang, Ting-An; Weglarz, Ronald P.

1993-01-01

Interactions between gravity waves and cold air outflows in a stably stratified uniform flow forced by various combinations of prescribed heat sinks and sources are studied using a hydrostatic two-dimensional nonlinear numerical model. The formation time for the development of a stagnation point or reversed flow at the surface is not always directly proportional to the Froude number when wave reflections exist from upper levels. A density current is able to form by the wave-otuflow interaction, even though the Froude number is greater than a critical value. This is the result of the wave-outflow interaction shifting the flow response to a different location in the characteristic parameter space. A density current is able to form or be destroyed due to the wave-outflow interaction between a traveling gravity wave and cold air outflow. This is proved by performing experiments with a steady-state heat sink and an additional transient heat source. In a quiescent fluid, a region of cold air, convergence, and upward motion is formed after the collision between two outflows produced by two prescribed heat sinks. After the collision, the individual cold air outflows lose their own identity and merge into a single, stationary, cold air outflow region. Gravity waves tend to suppress this new stationary cold air outflow after the collision. The region of upward motion associated with the collision is confined to a very shallow layer. In a moving airstream, a density current produced by a heat sink may be suppressed or enhanced nonlinearly by an adjacent heat sink due to the wave-outflow interaction.

On the physics of waves in the solar atmosphere: Wave heating and wind acceleration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Musielak, Z. E.

1994-01-01

This paper presents work performed on the generation and physics of acoustic waves in the solar atmosphere. The investigators have incorporated spatial and temporal turbulent energy spectra in a newly corrected version of the Lighthill-Stein theory of acoustic wave generation in order to calculate the acoustic wave energy fluxes generated in the solar convective zone. The investigators have also revised and improved the treatment of the generation of magnetic flux tube waves, which can carry energy along the tubes far away from the region of their origin, and have calculated the tube wave energy fluxes for the sun. They also examine the transfer of the wave energy originated in the solar convective zone to the outer atmospheric layers through computation of wave propagation and dissipation in highly nonhomogeneous solar atmosphere. These waves may efficiently heat the solar atmosphere and the heating will be especially significant in the chromospheric network. It is also shown that the role played by Alfven waves in solar wind acceleration and coronal hole heating is dominant. The second part of the project concerned investigation of wave propagation in highly inhomogeneous stellar atmospheres using an approach based on an analytic tool developed by Musielak, Fontenla, and Moore. In addition, a new technique based on Dirac equations has been developed to investigate coupling between different MHD waves propagating in stratified stellar atmospheres.

Parametric instability induced by X-mode wave heating at EISCAT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Xiang; Zhou, Chen; Liu, Moran; Honary, Farideh; Ni, Binbin; Zhao, Zhengyu

2016-10-01

In this paper, we present results of parametric instability induced by X-mode wave heating observed by EISCAT (European Incoherent Scatter Scientific Association) radar at Tromsø, Norway. Three typical X-mode ionospheric heating experiments on 22 October 2013, 19 October 2012, and 21 February 2013 are investigated in details. Both parametric decay instability (PDI) and oscillating two-stream instability are observed during the X-mode heating period. We suggest that the full dispersion relationship of the Langmuir wave can be employed to analyze the X-mode parametric instability excitation. A modified kinetic electron distribution is proposed and analyzed, which is able to satisfy the matching condition of parametric instability excitation. Parallel electric field component of X-mode heating wave can also exceed the parametric instability excitation threshold under certain conditions.

Wave Modeling of the Solar Wind.

PubMed

Ofman, Leon

The acceleration and heating of the solar wind have been studied for decades using satellite observations and models. However, the exact mechanism that leads to solar wind heating and acceleration is poorly understood. In order to improve the understanding of the physical mechanisms that are involved in these processes a combination of modeling and observational analysis is required. Recent models constrained by satellite observations show that wave heating in the low-frequency (MHD), and high-frequency (ion-cyclotron) range may provide the necessary momentum and heat input to coronal plasma and produce the solar wind. This review is focused on the results of several recent solar modeling studies that include waves explicitly in the MHD and the kinetic regime. The current status of the understanding of the solar wind acceleration and heating by waves is reviewed.

Generalized thermoelastic diffusive waves in heat conducting materials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharma, J. N.

2007-04-01

Keeping in view the applications of diffusion processes in geophysics and electronics industry, the aim of the present paper is to give a detail account of the plane harmonic generalized thermoelastic diffusive waves in heat conducting solids. According to the characteristic equation, three longitudinal waves namely, elastodiffusive (ED), mass diffusion (MD-mode) and thermodiffusive (TD-mode), can propagate in such solids in addition to transverse waves. The transverse waves get decoupled from rest of the fields and hence remain unaffected due to temperature change and mass diffusion effects. These waves travel without attenuation and dispersion. The other generalized thermoelastic diffusive waves are significantly influenced by the interacting fields and hence suffer both attenuation and dispersion. At low frequency mass diffusion and thermal waves do not exist but at high-frequency limits these waves propagate with infinite velocity being diffusive in character. Moreover, in the low-frequency regions, the disturbance is mainly dominant by mechanical process of transportation of energy and at high-frequency regions it is significantly dominated by a close to diffusive process (heat conduction or mass diffusion). Therefore, at low-frequency limits the waves like modes are identifiable with small amplitude waves in elastic materials that do not conduct heat. The general complex characteristic equation is solved by using irreducible case of Cardano's method with the help of DeMoivre's theorem in order to obtain phase speeds, attenuation coefficients and specific loss factor of energy dissipation of various modes. The propagation of waves in case of non-heat conducting solids is also discussed. Finally, the numerical solution is carried out for copper (solvent) and zinc (solute) materials and the obtained phase velocities, attenuation coefficients and specific loss factor of various thermoelastic diffusive waves are presented graphically.

Coronal magnetohydrodynamic waves and oscillations: observations and quests.

PubMed

Aschwanden, Markus J

2006-02-15

Coronal seismology, a new field of solar physics that emerged over the last 5 years, provides unique information on basic physical properties of the solar corona. The inhomogeneous coronal plasma supports a variety of magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) wave modes, which manifest themselves as standing waves (MHD oscillations) and propagating waves. Here, we briefly review the physical properties of observed MHD oscillations and waves, including fast kink modes, fast sausage modes, slow (acoustic) modes, torsional modes, their diagnostics of the coronal magnetic field, and their physical damping mechanisms. We discuss the excitation mechanisms of coronal MHD oscillations and waves: the origin of the exciter, exciter propagation, and excitation in magnetic reconnection outflow regions. Finally, we consider the role of coronal MHD oscillations and waves for coronal heating, the detectability of various MHD wave types, and we estimate the energies carried in the observed MHD waves and oscillations: Alfvénic MHD waves could potentially provide sufficient energy to sustain coronal heating, while acoustic MHD waves fall far short of the required coronal heating rates.

[Physical and mechanical properties of the thermosetting resin for crown and bridge cured by micro-wave heating].

PubMed

Kaneko, K

1989-09-01

A heating method using micro-waves was utilized to obtain strong thermosetting resin for crown and bridge. The physical and mechanical properties of the thermosetting resin were examined. The resin was cured in a shorter time by the micro-waves heating method than by the conventional heat curing method and the working time was reduced markedly. The base resins of the thermosetting resin for crown and bridge for the micro-waves heating method were 2 PA and diluent 3 G. A compounding volume of 30 wt% for diluent 3 G was considered good the results of compressive strength, bending strength and diametral tensile strength. Grams of 200-230 of the filler compounded to the base resins of 2 PA-3 G system provided optimal compressive strength, bending strength and diametral tensile strength. A filler gram of 230 provided optimal hardness and curing shrinkage rate, the coefficient of thermal expansion became smaller with the increase of the compounding volume of the filler. The trial thermosetting resin for crown and bridge formed by the micro-waves heating method was not inferior to the conventional resin by the heat curing method or the light curing method.

Alfvén Wave Reflection and Turbulent Heating in the Solar Wind from 1 Solar Radius to 1 AU: An Analytical Treatment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chandran, Benjamin D. G.; Hollweg, Joseph V.

2009-12-01

We study the propagation, reflection, and turbulent dissipation of Alfvén waves in coronal holes and the solar wind. We start with the Heinemann-Olbert equations, which describe non-compressive magnetohydrodynamic fluctuations in an inhomogeneous medium with a background flow parallel to the background magnetic field. Following the approach of Dmitruk et al., we model the nonlinear terms in these equations using a simple phenomenology for the cascade and dissipation of wave energy and assume that there is much more energy in waves propagating away from the Sun than waves propagating toward the Sun. We then solve the equations analytically for waves with periods of hours and longer to obtain expressions for the wave amplitudes and turbulent heating rate as a function of heliocentric distance. We also develop a second approximate model that includes waves with periods of roughly one minute to one hour, which undergo less reflection than the longer-period waves, and compare our models to observations. Our models generalize the phenomenological model of Dmitruk et al. by accounting for the solar wind velocity, so that the turbulent heating rate can be evaluated from the coronal base out past the Alfvén critical point—that is, throughout the region in which most of the heating and acceleration occurs. The simple analytical expressions that we obtain can be used to incorporate Alfvén-wave reflection and turbulent heating into fluid models of the solar wind.

Changes in the Intensity and Frequency of Atmospheric Blocking and Associated Heat Waves During Northern Summer Over Eurasia in the CMIP5 Model Simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kim, Kyu-Myong; Lau, K. M.; Wu, H. T.; Kim, Maeng-Ki; Cho, Chunho

2012-01-01

The Russia heat wave and wild fires of the summer of 2010 was the most extreme weather event in the history of the country. Studies show that the root cause of the 2010 Russia heat wave/wild fires was an atmospheric blocking event which started to develop at the end of June and peaked around late July and early August. Atmospheric blocking in the summer of 2010 was anomalous in terms of the size, duration, and the location, which shifted to the east from the normal location. This and other similar continental scale severe summertime heat waves and blocking events in recent years have raised the question of whether such events are occurring more frequently and with higher intensity in a warmer climate induced by greenhouse gases. We studied the spatial and temporal distributions of the occurrence and intensity of atmospheric blocking and associated heat waves for northern summer over Eurasia based on CMIPS model simulations. To examine the global warming induced change of atmospheric blocking and heat waves, experiments for a high emissions scenario (RCP8.S) and a medium mitigation scenario (RCP4.S) are compared to the 20th century simulations (historical). Most models simulate the mean distributions of blockings reasonably well, including major blocking centers over Eurasia, northern Pacific, and northern Atlantic. However, the models tend to underestimate the number of blockings compared to MERRA and NCEPIDOE reanalysis, especially in western Siberia. Models also reproduced associated heat waves in terms of the shifting in the probability distribution function of near surface temperature. Seven out of eight models used in this study show that the frequency of atmospheric blocking over the Europe will likely decrease in a warmer climate, but slightly increase over the western Siberia. This spatial pattern resembles the blocking in the summer of 2010, indicating the possibility of more frequent occurrences of heat waves in western Siberia. In this talk, we will also discuss the potential effect of atmosphere-land feedback, particularly how the wetter spring affects the frequency and intensity of atmospheric blocking and heat wave during summer.

Thermotolerance and Photosystem II Behaviour in Co-occuring Temperate Tree Species Exposed to Short-term Extreme Heat Waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guha, A.; Warren, J.; Cummings, C.; Han, J.

2017-12-01

Thermal stress can induce irreversible photodamage with longer consequences for plant metabolism. We focused on photosystem II (PSII) behaviour to understand how this complex responds in different co-occuring temperate trees exposed to short-term extreme heat waves. The study was designed for understanding complex heat tolerance mechanisms in trees. During manipulative heat-wave experiments, we monitored instantaneous PSII performance and tracked both transient and chronic PSII damages using chlorophyll a fluorescence characteristics. Fluorescence signals were used to simulate PSII bioenergetic processes. The light (Fv'/Fm') and dark-adapted (Fv/Fm) fluorescence traits including fast induction kinetics (OJIP), electron transport rate, PSII operating efficiency and quenching capacities were significantly affected by the heat treatments. Loss in PSII efficiency was more apparent in species like black cottonwood, yellow poplar, walnuts and conifers, whereas oaks maintained relatively better PSII functions. The post-heat recovery of Fv/Fm varied across the studied species showing differential carry over effects. PSII down-regulation was one of dominant factors for the loss in operational photosynthesis during extreme heat wave events. Both light and dark-adapted fluorescence characteristics showed loss in photo-regulatory functions and photodamage. Some resilient species showed rapid recovery from transient PSII damage, whereas fingerprints of chronic PSII damage were observed in susceptibles. Thresholds for Fv/Fm and non-photochemical quenching were identified for the studied species. PSII malfunctioning was largely associated with the observed photosynthetic down-regulation during heat wave treatments, however, its physiological recovery should be a key factor to determine species resilience to short-term extreme heat wave events.

On the Uses of Full-Scale Schlieren Flow Visualization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Settles, G. S.; Miller, J. D.; Dodson-Dreibelbis, L. J.

2000-11-01

A lens-and-grid-type schlieren system using a very large grid as a light source was described at earlier APS/DFD meetings. With a field-of-view of 2.3x2.9 m (7.5x9.5 feet), it is the largest indoor schlieren system in the world. Still and video examples of several full-scale airflows and heat-transfer problems visualized thus far will be shown. These include: heating and ventilation airflows, flows due to appliances and equipment, the thermal plumes of people, the aerodynamics of an explosive trace detection portal, gas leak detection, shock wave motion associated with aviation security problems, and heat transfer from live crops. Planned future projects include visualizing fume-hood and grocery display freezer airflows and studying the dispersion of insect repellent plumes at full scale.

MAVEN Observations of Solar Wind-Driven Magnetosonic Waves Heating the Martian Dayside Ionosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fowler, C. M.; Andersson, L.; Ergun, R. E.; Harada, Y.; Hara, T.; Collinson, G.; Peterson, W. K.; Espley, J.; Halekas, J.; Mcfadden, J.; Mitchell, D. L.; Mazelle, C.; Benna, M.; Jakosky, B. M.

2018-05-01

We present Mars Atmosphere and Volatile EvolutioN observations of large-amplitude magnetosonic waves propagating through the magnetosheath into the Martian ionosphere near the subsolar point on the dayside of the planet. The observed waves grow in amplitude as predicted for a wave propagating into a denser, charged medium, with wave amplitudes reaching 25 nT, equivalent to ˜40% of the background field strength. These waves drive significant density and temperature variations (˜20% to 100% in amplitude) in the suprathermal electrons and light ion species (H+) that correlate with compressional fronts of the magnetosonic waves. Density and temperature variations are also observed for the ionospheric electrons, and heavy ion species (O+ and O2+); however, these variations are not in phase with the magnetic field variations. Whistler waves are observed at compressional wave fronts and are thought to be produced by unstable, anistropic suprathermal electrons. The magnetosonic waves drive significant ion and electron heating down to just above the exobase region. Ion heating rates are estimated to be between 0.03 and 0.2 eVs-1 per ion, and heavier ions could thus gain escape energy if located in this heating region for ˜10-70 s. The measured ionospheric density profile indicates severe ionospheric erosion above the exobase region, and this is likely caused by substantial ion outflow that is driven by the observed heating. The effectiveness of these magnetosonic waves to energize the plasma close to the exobase could have important implications for the long-term climate evolution for unmagnetized bodies that are exposed to the solar wind.

Changes in extreme events and the potential impacts on human health.

PubMed

Bell, Jesse E; Brown, Claudia Langford; Conlon, Kathryn; Herring, Stephanie; Kunkel, Kenneth E; Lawrimore, Jay; Luber, George; Schreck, Carl; Smith, Adam; Uejio, Christopher

2018-04-01

Extreme weather and climate-related events affect human health by causing death, injury, and illness, as well as having large socioeconomic impacts. Climate change has caused changes in extreme event frequency, intensity, and geographic distribution, and will continue to be a driver for change in the future. Some of these events include heat waves, droughts, wildfires, dust storms, flooding rains, coastal flooding, storm surges, and hurricanes. The pathways connecting extreme events to health outcomes and economic losses can be diverse and complex. The difficulty in predicting these relationships comes from the local societal and environmental factors that affect disease burden. More information is needed about the impacts of climate change on public health and economies to effectively plan for and adapt to climate change. This paper describes some of the ways extreme events are changing and provides examples of the potential impacts on human health and infrastructure. It also identifies key research gaps to be addressed to improve the resilience of public health to extreme events in the future. Extreme weather and climate events affect human health by causing death, injury, and illness, as well as having large socioeconomic impacts. Climate change has caused changes in extreme event frequency, intensity, and geographic distribution, and will continue to be a driver for change in the future. Some of these events include heat waves, droughts, wildfires, flooding rains, coastal flooding, surges, and hurricanes. The pathways connecting extreme events to health outcomes and economic losses can be diverse and complex. The difficulty in predicting these relationships comes from the local societal and environmental factors that affect disease burden.

Characterizing prolonged heat effects on mortality in a sub-tropical high-density city, Hong Kong

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ho, Hung Chak; Lau, Kevin Ka-Lun; Ren, Chao; Ng, Edward

2017-11-01

Extreme hot weather events are likely to increase under future climate change, and it is exacerbated in urban areas due to the complex urban settings. It causes excess mortality due to prolonged exposure to such extreme heat. However, there is lack of universal definition of prolonged heat or heat wave, which leads to inadequacies of associated risk preparedness. Previous studies focused on estimating temperature-mortality relationship based on temperature thresholds for assessing heat-related health risks but only several studies investigated the association between types of prolonged heat and excess mortality. However, most studies focused on one or a few isolated heat waves, which cannot demonstrate typical scenarios that population has experienced. In addition, there are limited studies on the difference between daytime and nighttime temperature, resulting in insufficiency to conclude the effect of prolonged heat. In sub-tropical high-density cities where prolonged heat is common in summer, it is important to obtain a comprehensive understanding of prolonged heat for a complete assessment of heat-related health risks. In this study, six types of prolonged heat were examined by using a time-stratified analysis. We found that more consecutive hot nights contribute to higher mortality risk while the number of consecutive hot days does not have significant association with excess mortality. For a day after five consecutive hot nights, there were 7.99% [7.64%, 8.35%], 7.74% [6.93%, 8.55%], and 8.14% [7.38%, 8.88%] increases in all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality, respectively. Non-consecutive hot days or nights are also found to contribute to short-term mortality risk. For a 7-day-period with at least five non-consecutive hot days and nights, there was 15.61% [14.52%, 16.70%] increase in all-cause mortality at lag 0-1, but only -2.00% [-2.83%, -1.17%] at lag 2-3. Differences in the temperature-mortality relationship caused by hot days and hot nights imply the need to categorize prolonged heat for public health surveillance. Findings also contribute to potential improvement to existing heat-health warning system.

Characterizing prolonged heat effects on mortality in a sub-tropical high-density city, Hong Kong.

PubMed

Ho, Hung Chak; Lau, Kevin Ka-Lun; Ren, Chao; Ng, Edward

2017-11-01

Extreme hot weather events are likely to increase under future climate change, and it is exacerbated in urban areas due to the complex urban settings. It causes excess mortality due to prolonged exposure to such extreme heat. However, there is lack of universal definition of prolonged heat or heat wave, which leads to inadequacies of associated risk preparedness. Previous studies focused on estimating temperature-mortality relationship based on temperature thresholds for assessing heat-related health risks but only several studies investigated the association between types of prolonged heat and excess mortality. However, most studies focused on one or a few isolated heat waves, which cannot demonstrate typical scenarios that population has experienced. In addition, there are limited studies on the difference between daytime and nighttime temperature, resulting in insufficiency to conclude the effect of prolonged heat. In sub-tropical high-density cities where prolonged heat is common in summer, it is important to obtain a comprehensive understanding of prolonged heat for a complete assessment of heat-related health risks. In this study, six types of prolonged heat were examined by using a time-stratified analysis. We found that more consecutive hot nights contribute to higher mortality risk while the number of consecutive hot days does not have significant association with excess mortality. For a day after five consecutive hot nights, there were 7.99% [7.64%, 8.35%], 7.74% [6.93%, 8.55%], and 8.14% [7.38%, 8.88%] increases in all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality, respectively. Non-consecutive hot days or nights are also found to contribute to short-term mortality risk. For a 7-day-period with at least five non-consecutive hot days and nights, there was 15.61% [14.52%, 16.70%] increase in all-cause mortality at lag 0-1, but only -2.00% [-2.83%, -1.17%] at lag 2-3. Differences in the temperature-mortality relationship caused by hot days and hot nights imply the need to categorize prolonged heat for public health surveillance. Findings also contribute to potential improvement to existing heat-health warning system.

On the physics of waves in the solar atmosphere: Wave heating and wind acceleration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Musielak, Z. E.

1993-01-01

This paper presents work performed on the generation and physics of acoustic waves in the solar atmosphere. The investigators have incorporated spatial and temporal turbulent energy spectra in a newly corrected version of the Lighthill-Stein theory of acoustic wave generation in order to calculate the acoustic wave energy fluxes generated in the solar convective zone. The investigators have also revised and improved the treatment of the generation of magnetic flux tube waves, which can carry energy along the tubes far away from the region of their origin, and have calculated the tube energy fluxes for the sun. They also examine the transfer of the wave energy originated in the solar convective zone to the outer atmospheric layers through computation of wave propagation and dissipation in highly nonhomogeneous solar atmosphere. These waves may efficiently heat the solar atmosphere and the heating will be especially significant in the chromospheric network. It is also shown that the role played by Alfven waves in solar wind acceleration and coronal hole heating is dominant. The second part of the project concerned investigation of wave propagation in highly inhomogeneous stellar atmospheres using an approach based on an analytic tool developed by Musielak, Fontenla, and Moore. In addition, a new technique based on Dirac equations has been developed to investigate coupling between different MHD waves propagating in stratified stellar atmospheres.

On the axisymmetric stability of heated supersonic round jets

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

We perform an inviscid, spatial stability analysis of supersonic, heated round jets with the mean properties assumed uniform on either side of the jet shear layer, modelled here via a cylindrical vortex sheet. Apart from the hydrodynamic Kelvin–Helmholtz (K–H) wave, the spatial growth rates of the acoustically coupled supersonic and subsonic instability waves are computed for axisymmetric conditions (m=0) to analyse their role on the jet stability, under increased heating and compressibility. With the ambient stationary, supersonic instability waves may exist for any jet Mach number Mj≥2, whereas the subsonic instability waves, in addition, require the core-to-ambient flow temperature ratio Tj/To>1. We show, for moderately heated jets at Tj/To>2, the acoustically coupled instability modes, once cut on, to govern the overall jet stability with the K–H wave having disappeared into the cluster of acoustic modes. Sufficiently high heating makes the subsonic modes dominate the jet near-field dynamics, whereas the supersonic instability modes form the primary Mach radiation at far field. PMID:27274691

Generation of whistler-wave heated discharges with planar resonant RF networks.

PubMed

Guittienne, Ph; Howling, A A; Hollenstein, Ch

2013-09-20

Magnetized plasma discharges generated by a planar resonant rf network are investigated. A regime transition is observed above a magnetic field threshold, associated with rf waves propagating in the plasma and which present the characteristics of whistler waves. These wave heated regimes can be considered as analogous to conventional helicon discharges, but in planar geometry.

Pondermotive versus mirror force in creation of the filamentary cavities in auroral plasma

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Singh, Nagendra

1994-01-01

Recently rocket observations on spikelets of lower-hybrid waves along with strong density cavities and transversely heated ions were reported. The observed thin filamentary cavities oriented along the magnetic field in the auroral plasma have density depletions up to several tens of percent. These observations have been interpreted in terms of a theory for lower-hybrid wave condensation and collapse. The modulational instability leading to the wave consensation of the lower-hybrid waves yields only weak density perturbations, which cannot explain the above strong density depletions. The wave collapse theory is based on the nonlinear pondermotive force in a homogeneous ambient plasma and the density depletion is determined by the balance between the wave pressure (pondermotive force) and the plasma pressure. In the auroral plasma, the balance is achieved in a time tau(sub wc) equal to or less than 1 ms. It is shown here that the mirror force, acting on the transversely heated ions at a relatively long time scale, is an effective mechanism for creating the strong plasma cavities. We suggest that the process of wave condensation, through the pondermotive force causing generation of short wavelength waves from relatively long wavelength waves, is a dominant process until the former waves evolve and become effective in the transverse heating of ions. As soon as this happens, mirror force on ions becomes an important factor in the creation of the density cavities, which may further trap and enhance the waves. Results from a model of cavity formation by transverse ion heating show that the observed depletions in the density cavities can be produced by the heating rates determined by the observed wave amplitudes near the lower-hybrid frequency. It is found that the creation of a strong density cavity takes a few minutes.

Turbine Engine Hot Section Technology, 1984

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1984-01-01

Presentations were made concerning the hot section environment and behavior of combustion liners, turbine blades, and waves. The presentations were divided into six sessions: instrumentation, combustion, turbine heat transfer, structural analysis, fatigue and fracture, and surface properties. The principal objective of each session was to disseminate research results to date, along with future plans. Topics discussed included modeling of thermal and fluid flow phenomena, structural analysis, fatigue and fracture, surface protective coatings, constitutive behavior, stress-strain response, and life prediction methods.

National Security and the Accelerating Risks of Climate Change

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-05-01

future. A second “wild card” is the ability of the ocean to adapt to increased acidification . The oceans are the world’s largest carbon “sinks,” as they...support systems The projected impacts of climate change—heat waves, intense rainfall, floods and droughts, rising sea levels, more acidic oceans , and...and they had never seen this. That, to me, was pretty profound.” Titley and other scientists say overall ocean temperatures have responded more

Correlation between core ion energization, suprathermal electron bursts, and broadband ELF plasma waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knudsen, David J.; Clemmons, James H.; Wahlund, Jan-Erik

1998-03-01

Observations of the lowest energy or core ions provide a particularly sensitive measure of the early stages of auroral ion energization. Freja satellite observations of 0-20 eV core ions in the topside auroral ionosphere and cusp/cleft show signs of heating within both regions of VLF hiss and broadband ELF plasma waves. However, heating to several eV or more is associated predominantly with the ELF waves. A correlation analysis of wave and core ion data formed from orbital segments shows that, on average, correlations are highest for wave frequencies below several hundred Hz, and less at VLF hiss frequencies. A similar analysis shows a higher correlation between electron precipitation and ion heating for electron energies below several hundred eV (i.e., the energies associated with suprathermal electron bursts) and a lower correlation above the 1 keV energies associated with auroral inverted-V's. Signs of core ion heating begin to appear when wave power at the O+ gyrofrequency exceeds about 10-3(mVm-1)2/Hz, and when the integrated field-aligned electron flux exceeds a few times 107cm-2s-1sr-1. This electron energy flux threshold is at least an order of magnitude lower than previously inferred from earlier studies comparing suprathermal electron fluxes and energetic ions. Almost all observed heating events occur during enhanced or active geomagnetic conditions; i.e., Kp>=4. While the most intense core ion heating is correlated with broadband ELF waves, we also present one example of weak ion heating of a few eV in a region of VLF auroral hiss.

Increasing heat waves and warm spells in India, observed from a multiaspect framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Panda, Dileep Kumar; AghaKouchak, Amir; Ambast, Sunil Kumar

2017-04-01

Recent heat waves have been a matter of serious concern for India because of potential impacts on agriculture, food security, and socioeconomic progress. This study examines the trends and variability in frequency, duration, and intensity of hot episodes during three time periods (1951-2013, 1981-2013 and 1998-2013) by defining heat waves based on the percentile of maximum, minimum, and mean temperatures. The study also explores heat waves and their relationships with hydroclimatic variables, such as rainfall, terrestrial water storage, Palmer drought severity index, and sea surface temperature. Results reveal that the number, frequency, and duration of daytime heat waves increased considerably during the post-1980 dry and hot phase over a large area. The densely populated and agriculturally dominated northern half of India stands out as a key region where the nighttime heat wave metrics reflected the most pronounced amplifications. Despite the recent warming hiatus in India and other parts of the world, we find that both daytime and nighttime extreme measures have undergone substantial changes during or in the year following a dry year since 2002, with the probability distribution functions manifesting a hotter-than-normal climate during 1998-2013. This study shows that a few months preceding the 2010 record-breaking heat wave in Russia, India experienced the largest hot episode in the country's history. Interestingly, both these mega events are comparable in terms of their evolution and amplification. These findings emphasize the importance of planning for strategies in the context of the rising cooccurrence of dry and hot events.

Maintenance of Austral Summertime Upper-Tropospheric Circulation over Tropical South America: The Bolivian High-Nordeste Low System.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Tsing-Chang; Weng, Shu-Ping; Schubert, Siegfried

1999-07-01

Using the NASA/GEOS reanalysis data for 1980-95, the austral-summer stationary eddies in the tropical-subtropical Southern Hemisphere are examined in two wave regimes: long and short wave (wave 1 and waves 2-6, respectively). The basic structure of the Bolivian high-Nordeste low (BH-NL) system is formed by a short-wave train across South America but modulated by the long-wave regime. The short-wave train exhibits a monsoonlike vertical phase reversal in the midtroposphere and a quarter-wave phase shift relative to the divergent circulation. As inferred from (a) the spatial relationship between the streamfunction and velocity potential and (b) the structure of the divergent circulation, the short-wave train forming the BH-NL system is maintained by South American local heating and remote African heating, while the long-wave regime is maintained by western tropical Pacific heating.The maintenance of the stationary waves in the two wave regimes is further illustrated by a simple diagnostic scheme that includes the velocity-potential maintenance equation (which links velocity potential and diabatic heating) and the streamfunction budget (which is the inverse Laplacian transform of the vorticity equation). Some simple relationships between streamfunction and velocity potential for both wave regimes are established to substantiate the links between diabatic heating and streamfunction; of particular interest is a Sverdrup balance in the short-wave regime. This simplified vorticity equation explains the vertical structure of the short-wave train associated with the BH-NL system and its spatial relationship with the divergent circulation.Based upon the diagnostic analysis of its maintenance a simple forced barotropic model is adopted to simulate the BH-NL system with idealized forcings, which imitates the real 200-mb divergence centers over South America, Africa, and the tropical Pacific. Numerical simulations demonstrate that the formation of the BH-NL system is affected not only by the African remote forcing, but also by the tropical Pacific forcing.

Compact acoustic refrigerator

DOEpatents

Bennett, G.A.

1992-11-24

A compact acoustic refrigeration system actively cools components, e.g., electrical circuits, in a borehole environment. An acoustic engine includes first thermodynamic elements for generating a standing acoustic wave in a selected medium. An acoustic refrigerator includes second thermodynamic elements located in the standing wave for generating a relatively cold temperature at a first end of the second thermodynamic elements and a relatively hot temperature at a second end of the second thermodynamic elements. A resonator volume cooperates with the first and second thermodynamic elements to support the standing wave. To accommodate the high heat fluxes required for heat transfer to/from the first and second thermodynamic elements, first heat pipes transfer heat from the heat load to the second thermodynamic elements and second heat pipes transfer heat from first and second thermodynamic elements to the borehole environment. 18 figs.

Iterative Methods to Solve Linear RF Fields in Hot Plasma

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spencer, Joseph; Svidzinski, Vladimir; Evstatiev, Evstati; Galkin, Sergei; Kim, Jin-Soo

2014-10-01

Most magnetic plasma confinement devices use radio frequency (RF) waves for current drive and/or heating. Numerical modeling of RF fields is an important part of performance analysis of such devices and a predictive tool aiding design and development of future devices. Prior attempts at this modeling have mostly used direct solvers to solve the formulated linear equations. Full wave modeling of RF fields in hot plasma with 3D nonuniformities is mostly prohibited, with memory demands of a direct solver placing a significant limitation on spatial resolution. Iterative methods can significantly increase spatial resolution. We explore the feasibility of using iterative methods in 3D full wave modeling. The linear wave equation is formulated using two approaches: for cold plasmas the local cold plasma dielectric tensor is used (resolving resonances by particle collisions), while for hot plasmas the conductivity kernel (which includes a nonlocal dielectric response) is calculated by integrating along test particle orbits. The wave equation is discretized using a finite difference approach. The initial guess is important in iterative methods, and we examine different initial guesses including the solution to the cold plasma wave equation. Work is supported by the U.S. DOE SBIR program.

Investigation of the radiation properties of magnetospheric ELF waves induced by modulated ionospheric heating

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Feng; Ni, Binbin; Zhao, Zhengyu; Zhao, Shufan; Zhao, Guangxin; Wang, Min

2017-05-01

Electromagnetic extremely low frequency (ELF) waves play an important role in modulating the Earth's radiation belt electron dynamics. High-frequency (HF) modulated heating of the ionosphere acts as a viable means to generate artificial ELF waves. The artificial ELF waves can reside in two different plasma regions in geo-space by propagating in the ionosphere and penetrating into the magnetosphere. As a consequence, the entire trajectory of ELF wave propagation should be considered to carefully analyze the wave radiation properties resulting from modulated ionospheric heating. We adopt a model of full wave solution to evaluate the Poynting vector of the ELF radiation field in the ionosphere, which can reflect the propagation characteristics of the radiated ELF waves along the background magnetic field and provide the initial condition of waves for ray tracing in the magnetosphere. The results indicate that the induced ELF wave energy forms a collimated beam and the center of the ELF radiation shifts obviously with respect to the ambient magnetic field with the radiation power inversely proportional to the wave frequency. The intensity of ELF wave radiation also shows a weak correlation with the size of the radiation source or its geographical location. Furthermore, the combination of ELF propagation in the ionosphere and magnetosphere is proposed on basis of the characteristics of the ELF radiation field from the upper ionospheric boundary and ray tracing simulations are implemented to reasonably calculate magnetospheric ray paths of ELF waves induced by modulated ionospheric heating.

Predictability of the European heat and cold waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lavaysse, Christophe; Naumann, Gustavo; Alfieri, Lorenzo; Salamon, Peter; Vogt, Jürgen

2018-06-01

Heat and cold waves may have considerable human and economic impacts in Europe. Recent events, like the heat waves observed in France in 2003 and Russia in 2010, illustrated the major consequences to be expected. Reliable Early Warning Systems for extreme temperatures would, therefore, be of high value for decision makers. However, they require a clear definition and robust forecasts of these events. This study analyzes the predictability of heat and cold waves over Europe, defined as at least three consecutive days of {T}_{min} and {T}_{max} above the quantile Q90 (under Q10), using the extended ensemble system of ECMWF. The results show significant predictability for events within a 2-week lead time, but with a strong decrease of the predictability during the first week of forecasts (from 80 to 40% of observed events correctly forecasted). The scores show a higher predictive skill for the cold waves (in winter) than for the heat waves (in summer). The uncertainties and the sensitivities of the predictability are discussed on the basis of tests conducted with different spatial and temporal resolutions. Results demonstrate the negligible effect of the temporal resolution (very few errors due to bad timing of the forecasts), and a better predictability of large-scale events. The onset and the end of the waves are slightly less predictable with an average of about 35% (30%) of observed heat (cold) waves onsets or ends correctly forecasted with a 5-day lead time. Finally, the forecasted intensities show a correlation of about 0.65 with those observed, revealing the challenge to predict this important characteristic.

On the Causes of and Long Term Changes in Eurasian Heat Waves

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schubert, Siegfried; Wang, Hailan; Koster, Randal; Suarez, Max

2012-01-01

The MERRA reanalysis, other observations, and the GEOS-S model have been used to diagnose the causes of Eurasian heat waves including the recent extreme events that occurred in Europe during 2003 and in Russia during 2010. The results show that such extreme events are an amplification of natural patterns of atmospheric variability (in this case a particular large-scale atmospheric planetary wave) that develop over the Eurasian continent as a result of internal atmospheric forcing. The amplification occurs when the wave occasionally becomes locked in place for several weeks to months resulting in extreme heat and drying with the location depending on the phase of the upper atmospheric wave. Model experiments suggest that forcing from both the ocean (SST) and land playa role phase-locking the waves. An ensemble of very long GEOS-S model simulations (spanning the 20th century) forced with observed SST and greenhouse gases show that the model is capable of generating very similar heat waves, and that they have become more extreme in the last thirty years as a result of the overall warming of the Asian continent.

Effects of temperature and heat waves on emergency department visits and emergency ambulance dispatches in Pudong New Area, China: a time series analysis.

PubMed

Sun, Xiaoming; Sun, Qiao; Yang, Minjuan; Zhou, Xianfeng; Li, Xiaopan; Yu, Aiqing; Geng, Fuhai; Guo, Yuming

2014-10-02

In July 2013, an extended heat episode with extreme high temperature covered Pudong New Area, the largest district in Shanghai. The current study estimates the impacts of temperature and heat waves on emergency department visits (EDV) and emergency ambulance dispatches (EAD) using time-series approaches in Pudong, from 2011 to 2013. An over-dispersed Poisson generalized additive model was used to examine the association between temperature and EDV and EAD. Heat wave effects with different heat wave definitions considering both the intensity and durations were also estimated. Immediate effects of temperature on EDV and EAD were detected, after controlling for trends of time and day of week. The exposure-response relationships showed J-shaped curves with higher threshold temperature of EDV than that of EAD visually. When estimating risk changes on heat days compared with non-heat days using different percentiles of daily mean temperature in definition, EAD showed significant increases while non-significant or even negative associations were found for EDV. Heat wave with intensity above the 90th percentile had 2.62% (95% CI: 1.78%, 3.46%) and 0.95% (95% CI: 0.22%, 1.69%) increases in EDV for a duration of at least 2 days and 3 days respectively. The relative increase of EAD were 4.85% (95% CI: 1.42%, 8.39%) and 3.94% (95% CI: 0.88%, 7.10%). Varied effects of temperature and heat waves on emergency department visits and emergency ambulance dispatches were investigated. This wider view of the health effect of temperature indicated that interventions for both public health education and health services management should be considered in the study region.

Acoustic Disturbances in Galaxy Clusters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zweibel, Ellen G.; Mirnov, Vladimir V.; Ruszkowski, Mateusz; Reynolds, Christopher S.; Yang, H.-Y. Karen; Fabian, Andrew C.

2018-05-01

Galaxy cluster cores are pervaded by hot gas which radiates at far too high a rate to maintain any semblance of a steady state; this is referred to as the cooling flow problem. Of the many heating mechanisms that have been proposed to balance radiative cooling, one of the most attractive is the dissipation of acoustic waves generated by active galactic nuclei. Fabian et al. showed that if the waves are nearly adiabatic, wave damping due to heat conduction and viscosity must be well below standard Coulomb rates in order to allow the waves to propagate throughout the core. Because of the importance of this result, we have revisited wave dissipation under galaxy cluster conditions in a way that accounts for the self-limiting nature of dissipation by electron thermal conduction, allows the electron and ion temperature perturbations in the waves to evolve separately, and estimates kinetic effects by comparing to a semicollisionless theory. While these effects considerably enlarge the toolkit for analyzing observations of wavelike structures and developing a quantitative theory for wave heating, the drastic reduction of transport coefficients proposed in Fabian et al. remains the most viable path to acoustic wave heating of galaxy cluster cores.

Climate change and heat waves in Paris and London metropolitan areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dousset, B.

2010-12-01

Summer warming trends in Western and Central Europe and in Mediterranean regions are increasing the incidence, intensity, and duration of heat waves. Those extreme events are especially deadly in large cities, owing to high population densities, surface characteristics, heat island effects, anthropogenic heat and pollutants. In August 2003, a persistent anticyclone over Western Europe generated a heat wave of exceptional strength and duration with an estimated death toll of 70,000, including 4678 in the Paris region. A series of NOAA-AVHRR satellite thermal images over the Paris and London metropolitan areas, were used to analyze Land Surface Temperature (LST) and its related mortality. In the Paris region, LSTs were merged with land use and cover data to identify risk areas, and thermal indicators were produced at the addresses of ~ 500 elderly people to assess diurnal heat exposure. Results indicate: (i) contrasting night time and daytime heat island patterns related to land use and surface characteristics; (ii) the relation between night-time heat islands and heat waves intensity; (iii) the impact of elevated minimal temperatures on excess mortality, with a 0.5 °C increase doubling the risk of death, (in the temperature range of the heatwave); iv) the correlation between the spatial distribution of highest night-time LSTs and that of highest mortality ratios; and v) the significant impact of urban parks in the partitioning between latent and sensible surface heat fluxes, despite a prior warm and dry spring. Near-real time satellite monitoring of heat waves in urban areas improve our understanding of the LST processes and spatial variability, and of the related heat stress and mortality. These observations provide criteria for warning systems, contingency policies and planning, and climate adaptation and mitigation strategies.

Time-Dependent Simulations of Fast-Wave Heated High-Non-Inductive-Fraction H-Mode Plasmas in the National Spherical Torus Experiment Upgrade

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taylor, Gary; Bertelli, Nicola; Gerhardt, Stefan P.; Hosea, Joel C.; Mueller, Dennis; Perkins, Rory J.; Poli, Francesca M.; Wilson, James R.; Raman, Roger

2017-10-01

30 MHz fast-wave heating may be an effective tool for non-inductively ramping low-current plasmas to a level suitable for initiating up to 12 MW of neutral beam injection on the National Spherical Tokamak Experiment Upgrade (NSTX-U). Previously on NSTX 30 MHz fast wave heating was shown to efficiently and rapidly heat electrons; at the NSTX maximum axial toroidal magnetic field (BT(0)) of 0.55 T, 1.4 MW of 30 MHz heating increased the central electron temperature from 0.2 to 2 keV in 30 ms and generated an H-mode plasma with a non-inductive fraction (fNI) ˜ 0.7 at a plasma current (Ip) of 300 kA. NSTX-U will operate at BT(0) up to 1 T, with up to 4 MW of 30 MHz power (Prf). Predictive TRANSP free boundary transport simulations, using the TORIC full wave spectral code to calculate the fast-wave heating and current drive, have been run for NSTX-U Ip = 300 kA H-mode plasmas. Favorable scaling of fNI with 30 MHz heating power is predicted, with fNI ≥ 1 for Prf ≥ 2 MW.

Simulating the Impacts of Climate Extremes Across Sectors: The Case of the 2003 European Heat Wave

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schewe, J.; Zhao, F.; Reyer, C.; Breuer, L.; Coll, M.; Deryng, D.; Eddy, T.; Elliott, J. W.; Francois, L. M.; Friend, A. D.; Gerten, D.; Gosling, S.; Gudmundsson, L.; Huber, V.; Kim, H.; Lotze, H. K.; Orth, R.; Seneviratne, S. I.; Tittensor, D.; Vautard, R.; van Vliet, M. T. H.; Wada, Y.

2017-12-01

Increased occurrence of extreme climate or weather events is one of the most damaging consequences of global climate change today and in the future. Estimating the impacts of such extreme events across different human and natural systems is crucial for quantifying overall risks from climate change. Are current models fit for this task? Here we use the 2003 European heat wave and drought (EHW) as a historical analogue for comparable events in the future, and evaluate how accurately its impacts are reproduced by a multi-sectoral "super-ensemble" of state-of-the-art impacts models. Our study combines, for the first time, impacts on agriculture, freshwater resources, terrestrial and marine ecosystems, energy, and human health in a consistent multi-model framework. We identify key impacts of the 2003 EHW reported in the literature and/or recorded in publicly available databases, and examine how closely the models reproduce those impacts, applying the same measure of impact magnitude across different sectors. Preliminary results are mixed: While the EHW's impacts on water resources (streamflow) are reproduced well by most global hydrological models, not all crop and natural vegetation models reproduce the magnitude of impacts on agriculture and ecosystem productivity, respectively, and their performance varies by country or region. A hydropower capacity model matches reported hydropower generation anomalies only in some countries, and estimates of heat-related excess mortality from a set of statistical models are consistent with literature reports only for some of the cities investigated. We present a synthesis of simulated and observed impacts across sectors, and reflect on potential improvements in modeling and analyzing cross-sectoral impacts.

Increasing of Urban Radiation due to Climate Change and Reduction Strategy using Vegetation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, C.; Lee, D.; Heo, H. K.; Ahn, S.

2017-12-01

Urban Heat Island (UHI) which means urban air temperature is higher than suburban area is one of the most important environmental issues in Urban. High density of buildings and high ratio of impervious surfaces increases the radiation fluxes in urban canopy. Furthermore, climate change is expected to make UHI even more seriously in the future. Increased irradiation and air temperature cause high amount of short wave and long wave radiation, respectively. This increases net radiation negatively affects heat condition of pedestrian. UHI threatens citizen's health by increasing violence and heat related diseases. For this reason, understanding how much urban radiation will increase in the future, and exploring radiation reduction strategies is important for reducing UHI. In this research, we aim to reveal how the radiation flux in the urban canyon will change as the climate change and determine how much of urban vegetation will be needed to cover this degradation. The study area is a commercial district in Seoul where highly populated area. Due to the high density of buildings and lack of urban vegetation, this area has a poor thermal condition in summer. In this research, we simulate the radiation flux on the ground using multi-layer urban canopy model. Unlike conventionally used urban canopy model to simulate radiation transfer using vertically single layer, the multi-layer model we used here, enables to consider the vertical heterogeneous of buildings and urban vegetation. As a result, net radiation of urban ground will be increase 2.1 W/m² in the 2050s and 2.7 W/m² in the 2100s. And to prevent the increase of radiation, it is revealed that the urban vegetation should by increased by 10%. This research will be valuable in establishing greening planning as a strategy to reduce UHI effect.

Effect of the environmental stimuli upon the human body in winter outdoor thermal environment.

PubMed

Kurazumi, Yoshihito; Kondo, Emi; Ishii, Jin; Sakoi, Tomonori; Fukagawa, Kenta; Bolashikov, Zhecho Dimitrov; Tsuchikawa, Tadahiro; Matsubara, Naoki; Horikoshi, Tetsumi

2013-01-01

In order to manage the outdoor thermal environment with regard to human health and the environmental impact of waste heat, quantitative evaluations are indispensable. It is necessary to use a thermal environment evaluation index. The purpose of this paper is to clarify the relationship between the psychological thermal responses of the human body and winter outdoor thermal environment variables. Subjective experiments were conducted in the winter outdoor environment. Environmental factors and human psychological responses were measured. The relationship between the psychological thermal responses of the human body and the outdoor thermal environment index ETFe (enhanced conduction-corrected modified effective temperature) in winter was shown. The variables which influence the thermal sensation vote of the human body are air temperature, long-wave thermal radiation and short-wave solar radiation. The variables that influence the thermal comfort vote of the human body are air temperature, humidity, short-wave solar radiation, long-wave thermal radiation, and heat conduction. Short-wave solar radiation, and heat conduction are among the winter outdoor thermal environment variables that affect psychological responses to heat. The use of thermal environment evaluation indices that comprise short-wave solar radiation and heat conduction in winter outdoor spaces is a valid approach.

Ion Thermalization and Electron Heating across Quasi-Perpendicular Shocks Observed by the MMS Mission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, L.-J.; Wilson, L. B., III; Wang, S.; Bessho, N.; Viñas, A. F.-; Lai, H.; Russell, C. T.; Schwartz, S. J.; Hesse, M.; Moore, T. E.; Burch, J. L.; Gershman, D. J.; Giles, B. L.; Torbert, R. B.; Ergun, R. E.; Dorelli, J.; Strangeway, R. J.; Paterson, W. R.; Lavraud, B.; Khotyaintsev, Yu. V.

2017-12-01

Collisionless shocks often involve intense plasma heating in space and astrophysical systems. Despite decades of research, a number of key questions concerning electron and ion heating across collisionless shocks remain unanswered. We 'image' 20 supercritical quasi-perpendicular bow shocks encountered by the Magnetospheric Multiscale (MMS) spacecraft with electron and ion distribution functions to address how ions are thermalized and how electrons are heated. The continuous burst measurements of 3D plasma distribution functions from MMS reveal that the primary thermalization phase of ions occurs concurrently with the main temperature increase of electrons as well as large-amplitude wave fluctuations. Approaching the shock from upstream, the ion temperature (Ti) increases due to the reflected ions joining the incoming solar wind population, as recognized by prior studies, and the increase of Ti precedes that of the electrons. Thermalization in the form of merging between the decelerated solar wind ions and the reflected component often results in a decrease in Ti. In most cases, the Ti decrease is followed by a gradual increase further downstream. Anisotropic, energy-dependent, and/or nongyrotropic electron energization are observed in association with large electric field fluctuations in the main electron temperature (Te) gradient, motivating a renewed scrutiny of the effects from the electrostatic cross-shock potential and wave fluctuations on electron heating. Particle-in-cell (PIC) simulations are carried out to assist interpretations of the MMS observations. We assess the roles of instabilities and the cross-shock potential in thermalizing ions and heating electrons based on the MMS measurements and PIC simulation results. Challenges will be posted for future computational studies and laboratory experiments on collisionless shocks.

Ion Thermalization and Electron Heating across Quasi-Perpendicular Shocks Observed by the MMS Mission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, L. J.; Wilson, L. B., III; Wang, S.; Bessho, N.; Figueroa-Vinas, A.; Lai, H.; Russell, C. T.; Schwartz, S. J.; Hesse, M.; Moore, T. E.; Burch, J.; Gershman, D. J.; Giles, B. L.; Torbert, R. B.; Ergun, R.; Dorelli, J.; Strangeway, R. J.; Paterson, W. R.; Lavraud, B.; Khotyaintsev, Y. V.

2017-12-01

Collisionless shocks often involve intense plasma heating in space and astrophysical systems. Despite decades of research, a number of key questions concerning electron and ion heating across collisionless shocks remain unanswered. We `image' 20 supercritical quasi-perpendicular bow shocks encountered by the Magnetospheric Multiscale (MMS) spacecraft with electron and ion distribution functions to address how ions are thermalized and how electrons are heated. The continuous burst measurements of 3D plasma distribution functions from MMS reveal that the primary thermalization phase of ions occurs concurrently with the main temperature increase of electrons as well as large-amplitude wave fluctuations. Approaching the shock from upstream, the ion temperature (Ti) increases due to the reflected ions joining the incoming solar wind population, as recognized by prior studies, and the increase of Ti precedes that of the electrons. Thermalization in the form of merging between the decelerated solar wind ions and the reflected component often results in a decrease in Ti. In most cases, the Ti decrease is followed by a gradual increase further downstream. Anisotropic, energy-dependent, and/or nongyrotropic electron energization are observed in association with large electric field fluctuations in the main electron temperature (Te) gradient, motivating a renewed scrutiny of the effects from the electrostatic cross-shock potential and wave fluctuations on electron heating. Particle-in-cell (PIC) simulations are carried out to assist interpretations of the MMS observations. We assess the roles of instabilities and the cross-shock potential in thermalizing ions and heating electrons based on the MMS measurements and PIC simulation results. Challenges will be posted for future computational studies and laboratory experiments on collisionless shocks.

Test of a new heat-flow equation for dense-fluid shock waves.

PubMed

Holian, Brad Lee; Mareschal, Michel; Ravelo, Ramon

2010-09-21

Using a recently proposed equation for the heat-flux vector that goes beyond Fourier's Law of heat conduction, we model shockwave propagation in the dense Lennard-Jones fluid. Disequilibrium among the three components of temperature, namely, the difference between the kinetic temperature in the direction of a planar shock wave and those in the transverse directions, particularly in the region near the shock front, gives rise to a new transport (equilibration) mechanism not seen in usual one-dimensional heat-flow situations. The modification of the heat-flow equation was tested earlier for the case of strong shock waves in the ideal gas, which had been studied in the past and compared to Navier-Stokes-Fourier solutions. Now, the Lennard-Jones fluid, whose equation of state and transport properties have been determined from independent calculations, allows us to study the case where potential, as well as kinetic contributions are important. The new heat-flow treatment improves the agreement with nonequilibrium molecular-dynamics simulations under strong shock wave conditions, compared to Navier-Stokes.

Film condensation in a horizontal rectangular duct

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lu, Qing; Suryanarayana, N. V.

1992-01-01

Condensation heat transfer in an annular flow regime with and without interfacial waves was experimentally investigated. The study included measurements of heat transfer rate with condensation of vapor flowing inside a horizontal rectangular duct and experiments on the initiation of interfacial waves in condensation, and adiabatic air-liquid flow. An analytical model for the condensation was developed to predict condensate film thickness and heat transfer coefficients. Some conclusions drawn from the study are that the condensate film thickness was very thin (less than 0.6 mm). The average heat transfer coefficient increased with increasing the inlet vapor velocity. The local heat transfer coefficient decreased with the axial distance of the condensing surface, with the largest change at the leading edge of the test section. The interfacial shear stress, which consisted of the momentum shear stress and the adiabatic shear stress, appeared to have a significant effect on the heat transfer coefficients. In the experiment, the condensate flow along the condensing surface experienced a smooth flow, a two-dimensional wavy flow, and a three-dimensional wavy flow. In the condensation experiment, the local wave length decreased with the axial distance of the condensing surface and the average wave length decreased with increasing inlet vapor velocity, while the wave speed increased with increasing vapor velocity. The heat transfer measurements are reliable. And, the ultrasonic technique was effective for measuring the condensate film thickness when the surface was smooth or had waves of small amplitude.

Microphysics of Waves and Instabilities in the Solar Wind and their Macro Manifestations in the Corona and Interplanetary Space

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Habbal, Shadia R.; Gurman, Joseph (Technical Monitor)

2003-01-01

Investigations of the physical processes responsible for the acceleration of the solar wind were pursued with the development of two new solar wind codes: a hybrid code and a 2-D MHD code. Hybrid simulations were performed to investigate the interaction between ions and parallel propagating low frequency ion cyclotron waves in a homogeneous plasma. In a low-beta plasma such as the solar wind plasma in the inner corona, the proton thermal speed is much smaller than the Alfven speed. Vlasov linear theory predicts that protons are not in resonance with low frequency ion cyclotron waves. However, non-linear effect makes it possible that these waves can strongly heat and accelerate protons. This study has important implications for study of the corona and the solar wind. Low frequency ion cyclotron waves or Alfven waves are commonly observed in the solar wind. Until now, it is believed that these waves are not able to heat the solar wind plasma unless some cascading processes transfer the energy of these waves to high frequency part. However, this study shows that these waves may directly heat and accelerate protons non-linearly. This process may play an important role in the coronal heating and the solar wind acceleration, at least in some parameter space.

A Self-consistent Model of the Coronal Heating and Solar Wind Acceleration Including Compressible and Incompressible Heating Processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shoda, Munehito; Yokoyama, Takaaki; Suzuki, Takeru K.

2018-02-01

We propose a novel one-dimensional model that includes both shock and turbulence heating and qualify how these processes contribute to heating the corona and driving the solar wind. Compressible MHD simulations allow us to automatically consider shock formation and dissipation, while turbulent dissipation is modeled via a one-point closure based on Alfvén wave turbulence. Numerical simulations were conducted with different photospheric perpendicular correlation lengths {λ }0, which is a critical parameter of Alfvén wave turbulence, and different root-mean-square photospheric transverse-wave amplitudes δ {v}0. For the various {λ }0, we obtain a low-temperature chromosphere, high-temperature corona, and supersonic solar wind. Our analysis shows that turbulence heating is always dominant when {λ }0≲ 1 {Mm}. This result does not mean that we can ignore the compressibility because the analysis indicates that the compressible waves and their associated density fluctuations enhance the Alfvén wave reflection and therefore the turbulence heating. The density fluctuation and the cross-helicity are strongly affected by {λ }0, while the coronal temperature and mass-loss rate depend weakly on {λ }0.

Generation of whistler waves by continuous HF heating of the upper ionosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vartanyan, A.; Milikh, G. M.; Eliasson, B. E.; Sharma, A.; Chang, C.; Parrot, M.; Papadopoulos, K.

2013-12-01

We report observations of VLF waves by the DEMETER satellite overflying the HAARP facility during ionospheric heating experiments. The detected VLF waves were in the range 8-17 kHz and coincided with times of continuous heating. The experiments indicate whistler generation due to conversion of artificial lower hybrid waves to whistlers on small scale field-aligned plasma density striations. The observations are compared with theoretical models, taking into account both linear and nonlinear processes. Implications of the mode conversion technique on VLF generation with subsequent injection into the radiation belts to trigger particle precipitation are discussed.

Chromospheric heating

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kalkofen, Wolfgang

1989-01-01

The solar chromosphere is identified with the atmosphere inside magnetic flux tubes. Between the temperature minimum and the 7000 K level, the chromosphere in the bright points of the quiet sun is heated by large-amplitude, long-period, compressive waves with periods mainly between 2 and 4 minutes. These waves do not observe the cutoff condition according to which acoustic waves with periods longer than 3 minutes do not propagate vertically in the upper solar photosphere. It is concluded that the long-period waves probably supply all the energy required for the heating of the bright points in the quiet solar chromosphere.

Evidence of Standing Waves in Arc Jet Nozzle Flow

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Driver, David M.; Hartman, Joe; Philippidis, Daniel; Noyes, Eric; Hui, Frank; Terrazas-Salinas, Imelda

2017-01-01

Waves spawned by the nozzle in the NASA Ames 60 MW Interaction Heating Facility arc jet were experimentally observed in pressure surveys at the exit of the nozzle. The waves have been seen in past CFD simulations, but were away from the region where models were tested (for the existing nozzles). However, a recent test series with a new nozzle extension (229 mm exit diameter) revealed that these waves intersect the centerline of the jet in a region where it is desirable to put test articles, and that the waves may be contributing to non-uniform recession behavior seen in Teflon (trademark) sublimation test articles tested in this new nozzle. It is reasonable to assume the ablation recession of thermal protection models will also be nonuniform due to exposure to these waves. This work shows that ablation response is sensitive to the location of test samples in the free jet relative to the location of the wave interaction, and that the issues with these waves can be avoided by choosing an optimum position for a test article in the free jet. This work describes the experimental observations along with the CFD simulations that have identified the waves emanating from the nozzle, as well as the instrumentation used to detect them. The work describes a recommended solution, derived by CFD analysis, which if implemented, should significantly reduce these flow disturbance and pressure anomalies in future nozzles.

Regional seasonal warming anomalies and land-surface feedbacks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coffel, E.; Horton, R. M.

2017-12-01

Significant seasonal variations in warming are projected in some regions, especially central Europe, the southeastern U.S., and central South America. Europe in particular may experience up to 2°C more warming during June, July, and August than in the annual mean, enhancing the risk of extreme summertime heat. Previous research has shown that heat waves in Europe and other regions are tied to seasonal soil moisture variations, and that in general land-surface feedbacks have a strong effect on seasonal temperature anomalies. In this study, we show that the seasonal anomalies in warming are also due in part to land-surface feedbacks. We find that in regions with amplified warming during the hot season, surface soil moisture levels generally decline and Bowen ratios increase as a result of a preferential partitioning of incoming energy into sensible vs. latent. The CMIP5 model suite shows significant variability in the strength of land-atmosphere coupling and in projections of future precipitation and soil moisture. Due to the dependence of seasonal warming on land-surface processes, these inter-model variations influence the projected summertime warming amplification and contribute to the uncertainty in projections of future extreme heat.

Birmingham Urban Climate Change with Neighbourhood Estimates of Environmental Risk (buccaneer)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bassett, R.; Thornes, J.; Cai, X.; Rees, R.

2011-12-01

The BUCCANEER project is a knowledge transfer partnership between the University of Birmingham and Birmingham City Council to help ensure that the city is prepared for the impacts of climate change. The project will equip service areas such as planners and health protection agencies with the necessary information and tools needed to adapt. UK climate projections indicate a 3.7oC temperature increase for Birmingham, UK by 2080 (medium emissions scenario). The 2003 heat-wave that caused over 2000 deaths in England and Wales will become an average summer by 2040. By the end of the century, the 2003 heat wave will be considered a cool summer. The dense urban fabric of Birmingham, the UK's second largest city, creates a warming effect when compared to surrounding rural areas. Past studies have found the nature of this urban heat island (UHI) to be related to city size, moisture availability, land-use, anthropogenic emissions, building materials and geometry. The UHI effect can lead to heat stress and air pollution problems which are a major health concern. Birmingham's UHI is not currently modelled. More specifically the UK climate projections treat Birmingham as a homogeneous slab of grassland. The inclusions of the urban areas in a climate model will show an intensification of the likely heat risk in future projections. In the present study, the JULES (Joint UK Land Environment Simulator) model has been setup and run for Birmingham and surrounding areas. The UHI was found to be greater than 3.5oC in Birmingham when modelled during heat waves. The model's performance is evaluated against data from two UK Met Office standard sites: Edgbaston (urban) and Winterbourne (rural). The temperatures predicted by the model over a 12 month (2010) simulation show a strong correlation with the observations. The model also reproduces the diurnal UHI intensity averaged over a year reasonably well. The model evaluation is also complemented by a data set of tiny-tag data logger temperature measurements around Birmingham and an on-going project (HiTemp) which aims to establish a high-density urban climate network in Birmingham. Once fully validated, UKCP09 weather generator data will be used to drive the model up to 2100 to assess future changes in Birmingham's climate and UHI. The findings of the research are transferred to Birmingham City Council so as to directly inform policy. In order for this to be achieved, a user-friendly web interface has been created - The BUCCANEER Planning Tool. The tool visually displays the combined impacts of the urban heat island, climate change and vulnerability on different temporal and spatial scales across the city. The vulnerability aspect uses layers developed from a risk mapping project at the University of Birmingham using social, economic and environmental data to create a spatial risk assessment with a particular focus on health and demographics. For example proportion of people with ill health in high density housing that will be exposed to excess heat. Additionally model parameters will be adjusted to allow for adaptation strategies to be assessed, for example the effectiveness of inserting green infrastructure in areas to combat excess heat in the city.

Heat stress mortality and desired adaptation responses of healthcare system in Poland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Błażejczyk, Anna; Błażejczyk, Krzysztof; Baranowski, Jarosław; Kuchcik, Magdalena

2018-03-01

Heat stress is one of the environmental factors influencing the health of individuals and the wider population. There is a large body of research to document significant increases in mortality and morbidity during heat waves all over the world. This paper presents key results of research dealing with heat-related mortality (HRM) in various cities in Poland which cover about 25% of the country's population. Daily mortality and weather data reports for the years 1991-2000 were used. The intensity of heat stress was assessed by the universal thermal climate index (UTCI). The research considers also the projections of future bioclimate to the end of twenty-first century. Brain storming discussions were applied to find necessary adaptation strategies of healthcare system (HCS) in Poland, to minimise negative effects of heat stress. In general, in days with strong and very strong heat stress, ones must expect increase in mortality (in relation to no thermal stress days) of 12 and 47%, respectively. Because of projected rise in global temperature and heat stress frequency, we must expect significant increase in HRM to the end of twenty-first century of even 165% in comparison to present days. The results of research show necessity of urgent implementation of adaptation strategies to heat in HCS.

Identifying biologically meaningful hot-weather events using threshold temperatures that affect life-history.

PubMed

Cunningham, Susan J; Kruger, Andries C; Nxumalo, Mthobisi P; Hockey, Philip A R

2013-01-01

Increases in the frequency, duration and intensity of heat waves are frequently evoked in climate change predictions. However, there is no universal definition of a heat wave. Recent, intense hot weather events have caused mass mortalities of birds, bats and even humans, making the definition and prediction of heat wave events that have the potential to impact populations of different species an urgent priority. One possible technique for defining biologically meaningful heat waves is to use threshold temperatures (T(thresh)) above which known fitness costs are incurred by species of interest. We set out to test the utility of this technique using T(thresh) values that, when exceeded, affect aspects of the fitness of two focal southern African bird species: the southern pied babbler Turdiodes bicolor (T(thresh) = 35.5 °C) and the common fiscal Lanius collaris (T(thresh) = 33 °C). We used these T(thresh) values to analyse trends in the frequency, duration and intensity of heat waves of magnitude relevant to the focal species, as well as the annual number of hot days (maximum air temperature > T(thresh)), in north-western South Africa between 1961 and 2010. Using this technique, we were able to show that, while all heat wave indices increased during the study period, most rapid increases for both species were in the annual number of hot days and in the maximum intensity (and therefore intensity variance) of biologically meaningful heat waves. Importantly, we also showed that warming trends were not uniform across the study area and that geographical patterns in warming allowed both areas of high risk and potential climate refugia to be identified. We discuss the implications of the trends we found for our focal species, and the utility of the T(thresh) technique as a conservation tool.

Identifying Biologically Meaningful Hot-Weather Events Using Threshold Temperatures That Affect Life-History

PubMed Central

Cunningham, Susan J.; Kruger, Andries C.; Nxumalo, Mthobisi P.

2013-01-01

Increases in the frequency, duration and intensity of heat waves are frequently evoked in climate change predictions. However, there is no universal definition of a heat wave. Recent, intense hot weather events have caused mass mortalities of birds, bats and even humans, making the definition and prediction of heat wave events that have the potential to impact populations of different species an urgent priority. One possible technique for defining biologically meaningful heat waves is to use threshold temperatures (Tthresh) above which known fitness costs are incurred by species of interest. We set out to test the utility of this technique using Tthresh values that, when exceeded, affect aspects of the fitness of two focal southern African bird species: the southern pied babbler Turdiodes bicolor (Tthresh = 35.5°C) and the common fiscal Lanius collaris (Tthresh = 33°C). We used these Tthresh values to analyse trends in the frequency, duration and intensity of heat waves of magnitude relevant to the focal species, as well as the annual number of hot days (maximum air temperature > Tthresh), in north-western South Africa between 1961 and 2010. Using this technique, we were able to show that, while all heat wave indices increased during the study period, most rapid increases for both species were in the annual number of hot days and in the maximum intensity (and therefore intensity variance) of biologically meaningful heat waves. Importantly, we also showed that warming trends were not uniform across the study area and that geographical patterns in warming allowed both areas of high risk and potential climate refugia to be identified. We discuss the implications of the trends we found for our focal species, and the utility of the Tthresh technique as a conservation tool. PMID:24349296

US Drought-Heat Wave Relationships in Past Versus Current Climates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, L.; Hoerling, M. P.; Eischeid, J.; Liu, Z.

2017-12-01

This study explores the relationship between droughts and heat waves over various regions of the contiguous United States that are distinguished by so-called energy-limited versus water-limited climatologies. We first examine the regional sensitivity of heat waves to soil moisture variability under 19th century climate conditions, and then compare to sensitivities under current climate that has been subjected to human-induced change. Our approach involves application of the conditional statistical framework of vine copula. Vine copula is known for its flexibility in reproducing various dependence structures exhibited by climate variables. Here we highlight its feature for evaluating the importance of conditional relationships between variables and processes that capture underlying physical factors involved in their interdependence during drought/heat waves. Of particular interest is identifying changes in coupling strength between heat waves and land surface conditions that may yield more extreme events as a result of land surface feedbacks. We diagnose two equilibrium experiments a coupled climate model (CESM1), one subjected to Year-1850 external forcing and the other to Year-2000 radiative forcing. We calculate joint heat wave/drought relationships for each climate state, and also calculate their change as a result of external radiative forcing changes across this 150-yr period. Our results reveal no material change in the dependency between heat waves and droughts, aside from small increases in coupling strength over the Great Plains. Overall, hot U.S. summer droughts of 1850-vintage do not become hotter in the current climate -- aside from the warming contribution of long-term climate change, in CESM1. The detectability of changes in hotter droughts as a consequence of anthropogenic forced changes in this single effect, i.e. coupling strength between soil moisture and hot summer temperature, is judged to be low at this time.

Evidence for Cocoon Emission from the Early Light Curve of SSS17a

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piro, Anthony L.; Kollmeier, Juna A.

2018-03-01

Swope Supernova Survey 2017a (SSS17a) was discovered as the first optical counterpart to the gravitational wave event GW170817. Although its light curve on the timescale of weeks roughly matches the expected luminosity and red color of an r-process powered transient, the explanation for the blue emission from high velocity material over the first few days is not as clear. Here we show that the power-law evolution of the luminosity, temperature, and photospheric radius during these early times can be explained by cooling of shock-heated material around the neutron star merger. This heating is likely from the interaction of the gamma-ray burst jet with merger debris, the so-called cocoon emission. We summarize the properties of this emission and provide formulae that can be used to study future detections of shock cooling from merging neutron stars. This argues that optical transient surveys should search for such early, blue light if they wish to find off-axis gamma-ray bursts and double neutron star gravitational wave events as soon as possible after the merger.

Resonance localization and poloidal electric field due to cyclo- tron wave heating in tokamak plasmas

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hsu, J.Y.; Chan, V.S.; Harvey, R.W.

1984-08-06

The perpendicular heating in cyclotron waves tends to pile up the resonant particles toward the low magnetic field side with their banana tips localized to the resonant surface. A poloidal electric field with an E x B drift comparable to the ion vertical drift in a toroidal magnetic field may result. With the assumption of anomalous electron and neoclassical ion transport, density variations due to wave heating are discussed.

Mesospheric heating due to intense tropospheric convection

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Taylor, L. L.

1979-01-01

A series of rocket measurements made twice daily at Wallops Island, Va., revealed a rapid heating of the mesosphere on the order of 10 K on days when thunderstorms or squall lines were in the area. This heating is explained as the result of frictional dissipation of vertically propagating internal gravity waves generated by intense tropospheric convection. Ray-tracing theory is used to determine the spectrum of gravity wave groups that actually reach mesospheric heights. This knowledge is used in an equation describing the spectral energy density of a penetrative convective element to calculate the fraction of the total energy initially available to excite those waves that do reach the level of heating. This value, converted into a vertical velocity, is used as the lower boundary condition for a multilayer model used to determine the detailed structure of the vertically propagating waves. The amount of frictional dissipation produced by the waves is calculated from the solutions of the frictionless model by use of a vertically varying eddy viscosity coefficient. The heating produced by the dissipation is then calculated from the thermodynamic equation.

Effects of extreme heat and drought on trees: what do we know and what do we need to know?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Teskey, R. O.

2017-12-01

It is almost certain that trees will experience heat waves and droughts during their lifetime. In response, they have acquired many adaptations to survive these periods of intense stress. For example, recently we have investigated the surprising role that stomata play in maintaining leaf function at very high temperatures by opening widely to cool the leaf even when photosynthesis is zero. This process and its trade-offs, as well as many other physiological and morphological responses to high temperatures, will be discussed. The current state of knowledge of the mechanisms trees use to cope with extreme drought, including leaf shedding, hydraulic architecture, carbohydrate storage, and changes in wood anatomy will be discussed. Examples of how the interactions between drought and heat affect trees also will be provided. Finally, an assessment of knowledge gaps and recommendations for future research will be provided.

On the physics of waves in the solar atmosphere: Wave heating and wind acceleration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Musielak, Z. E.

1992-01-01

In the area of solar physics, new calculations of the acoustic wave energy fluxes generated in the solar convective zone was performed. The original theory developed was corrected by including a new frequency factor describing temporal variations of the turbulent energy spectrum. We have modified the original Stein code by including this new frequency factor, and tested the code extensively. Another possible source of the mechanical energy generated in the solar convective zone is the excitation of magnetic flux tube waves which can carry energy along the tubes far away from the region. The problem as to how efficiently those waves are generated in the Sun was recently solved. The propagation of nonlinear magnetic tube waves in the solar atmosphere was calculated, and mode coupling, shock formation, and heating of the local medium was studied. The wave trapping problems and evaluation of critical frequencies for wave reflection in the solar atmosphere was studied. It was shown that the role played by Alfven waves in the wind accelerations and the coronal hole heating is dominant. Presently, we are performing calculations of wave energy fluxes generated in late-type dwarf stars and studying physical processes responsible for the heating of stellar chromospheres and coronae. In the area of physics of waves, a new analytical approach for studying linear Alfven waves in smoothly nonuniform media was recently developed. This approach is presently being extended to study the propagation of linear and nonlinear magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) waves in stratified, nonisothermal and solar atmosphere. The Lighthill theory of sound generation to nonisothermal media (with a special temperature distribution) was extended. Energy cascade by nonlinear MHD waves and possible chaos driven by these waves are presently considered.

Ion dynamics during the parametric instabilities of a left-hand polarized Alfvén wave in a proton-electron-alpha plasma

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gao, Xinliang; Lu, Quanming; Hao, Yufei

2014-01-01

The parametric instabilities of an Alfvén wave in a proton-electron plasma system are found to have great influence on proton dynamics, where part of the protons can be accelerated through the Landau resonance with the excited ion acoustic waves, and a beam component along the background magnetic field is formed. In this paper, with a one-dimensional hybrid simulation model, we investigate the evolution of the parametric instabilities of a monochromatic left-hand polarized Alfvén wave in a proton-electron-alpha plasma with a low beta. When the drift velocity between the protons and alpha particles is sufficiently large, the wave numbers of themore » backward daughter Alfvén waves can be cascaded toward higher values due to the modulational instability during the nonlinear evolution of the parametric instabilities, and the alpha particles are resonantly heated in both the parallel and perpendicular direction by the backward waves. On the other hand, when the drift velocity of alpha particles is small, the alpha particles are heated in the linear growth stage of the parametric instabilities due to the Landau resonance with the excited ion acoustic waves. Therefore, the heating occurs only in the parallel direction, and there is no obvious heating in the perpendicular direction. The relevance of our results to the preferential heating of heavy ions observed in the solar wind within 0.3 AU is also discussed in this paper.« less

Ion Bernstein wave heating research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ono, Masayuki

1993-02-01

Ion Bernstein wave heating (IBWH) utilizes the ion Bernstein wave (IBW), a hot plasma wave, to carry the radio frequency (rf) power to heat the tokamak reactor core. Earlier wave accessibility studies have shown that this finite-Larmor-radius (FLR) mode should penetrate into a hot dense reactor plasma core without significant attenuation. Moreover, the IBW's low perpendicular phase velocity (ω/k⊥≊VTi≪Vα) greatly reduces the otherwise serious wave absorption by the 3.5 MeV fusion α particles. In addition, the property of IBW's that k⊥ρi≊1 makes localized bulk ion heating possible at the ion cyclotron harmonic layers. Such bulk ion heating can prove useful in optimizing fusion reactivity. In another vein, with proper selection of parameters, IBW's can be made subject to strong localized electron Landau damping near the major ion cyclotron harmonic resonance layers. This property can be useful, for example, for rf current drive in the reactor plasma core. IBW's can be excited with loop antennas or with a lower-hybrid-like waveguide launcher at the plasma edge, the latter structure being one that is especially compatible with reactor application. In either case, the mode at the plasma edge is an electron plasma wave (EPW). Deeper in the plasma, the EPW is mode transformed into an IBW. Such launching and mode transformation of IBW's were first demonstrated in experiments in the Advanced Concepts Torus-1 (ACT-1) [Phys. Rev. Lett. 45, 1105 (1980)] plasma torus and in particle simulation calculations. These and other aspects of IBW heating physics have been investigated through a number of experiments performed on ACT-1, the Japanese Institute of Plasma Physics Tokamak II-Upgrade (JIPPTII-U) [Phys. Rev. Lett. 54, 2339 (1985)], the Tokyo University Non-Circular Tokamak (TNT) [Nucl. Fusion 26, 1097 (1986)], the Princeton Large Tokamak (PLT) [Phys. Rev. Lett. 60, 294 (1988)], and Alcator-C [Phys. Rev. Lett. 60, 298 (1988)]. In these experiments both linear and nonlinear heating processes have been observed. Interestingly, improvement of plasma confinement was also observed in the PLT and Alcator-C experiments, opening up the possible use of IBW's for the active control of plasma transport. Two theoretical explanations have been proposed: one based on four-wave mixing of IBW with low-frequency turbulence, the other on the nonlinear generation of a velocity-shear layer. Both models are consistent with the observed threshold power level of a few hundred kW in the experiments. Experiments on lower field plasmas on JFTII-M [Eighth Topical Conference on Radio-Frequency Power in Plasmas, Irvine, CA, 1989 (American Institute of Physics, New York, 1989), p. 350] and DIII-D [Eighth Topical Conference on Radio-Frequency Power in Plasmas, Irvine, CA, 1989 (American Institute of Physics, New York, 1989), p. 314] have raised some concern with the IBW wave-launching process. The experiments showed serious impurity release from the walls but little or no core heating, a combination of circumstances strongly suggestive of edge heating. Possible parasitic channels could include the excitation of short wavelength modes by the Faraday shield's fringing fields, antenna-sheath-wave excitation, an axial-convective loss channel, and nonlinear processes such as parametric instability and ponderomotive effects. Suggested remedies include changes in the antenna phasing, the use of low-Z insulators, operating at higher frequencies, positioning the plasma differently with respect to the antenna, eliminating the Faraday shields, and using a waveguide launcher. The recent JIPPTII-U experiment, employing a 0-π phased antenna array with a higher frequency 130 MHz source, demonstrated that those remedies can indeed work. Looking to the future, one seeks additional ways in which IBWH can improve tokamak performance. The strong ponderomotive potential of the IBWH antenna may be used to stabilize external kinks and, acting as an rf limiter, to control the plasma edge. Control of the plasma pressure profile with local IBWH heating is already an important part of the Princeton Beta Experiment-Modified (PBX-M) [Ninth Topical Conference on Radio-Frequency Power in Plasmas, Charleston, SC, 1991 (American Institute of Physics, New York, 1991), p. 129] program in its exploration of the second-stability regime. Application of IBWH may also improve the performance of neutral beam heating and the efficiency and localization of lower-hybrid current drive for current profile control. Used with pellet injection, IBWH may also prolong the period of good confinement. The three planned high-power IBWH experiments covering vastly different parameters: f=40-80 MHz for PBX-M; f=130 MHz for JIPPT-II-U; and f=430 MHz for the Frascati Tokamak-Upgrade (FT-U) [16th European Physical Society Conference on Controlled Fusion and Plasma Physics, Venice, Italy, 1989 (European Physical Society, Amsterdam, 1989), Vol. III, p. 1069] appear to be well positioned to explore these possibilities and to clarify other issues including the physics of wave launching and associated nonlinear processes.

Heat tolerance around flowering in wheat identified as a key trait for increased yield potential in Europe under climate change

PubMed Central

Stratonovitch, Pierre; Semenov, Mikhail A.

2015-01-01

To deliver food security for the 9 billon population in 2050, a 70% increase in world food supply will be required. Projected climatic and environmental changes emphasize the need for breeding strategies that delivers both a substantial increase in yield potential and resilience to extreme weather events such as heat waves, late frost, and drought. Heat stress around sensitive stages of wheat development has been identified as a possible threat to wheat production in Europe. However, no estimates have been made to assess yield losses due to increased frequency and magnitude of heat stress under climate change. Using existing experimental data, the Sirius wheat model was refined by incorporating the effects of extreme temperature during flowering and grain filling on accelerated leaf senescence, grain number, and grain weight. This allowed us, for the first time, to quantify yield losses resulting from heat stress under climate change. The model was used to optimize wheat ideotypes for CMIP5-based climate scenarios for 2050 at six sites in Europe with diverse climates. The yield potential for heat-tolerant ideotypes can be substantially increased in the future (e.g. by 80% at Seville, 100% at Debrecen) compared with the current cultivars by selecting an optimal combination of wheat traits, e.g. optimal phenology and extended duration of grain filling. However, at two sites, Seville and Debrecen, the grain yields of heat-sensitive ideotypes were substantially lower (by 54% and 16%) and more variable compared with heat-tolerant ideotypes, because the extended grain filling required for the increased yield potential was in conflict with episodes of high temperature during flowering and grain filling. Despite much earlier flowering at these sites, the risk of heat stress affecting yields of heat-sensitive ideotypes remained high. Therefore, heat tolerance in wheat is likely to become a key trait for increased yield potential and yield stability in southern Europe in the future. PMID:25750425

Modification of land-atmosphere interactions by CO2 effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lemordant, Leo; Gentine, Pierre

2017-04-01

Plant stomata couple the energy, water and carbon cycles. Increased CO2 modifies the seasonality of the water cycle through stomatal regulation and increased leaf area. As a result, the water saved during the growing season through higher water use efficiency mitigates summer dryness and the impact of potential heat waves. Land-atmosphere interactions and CO2 fertilization together synergistically contribute to increased summer transpiration. This, in turn, alters the surface energy budget and decreases sensible heat flux, mitigating air temperature rise. Accurate representation of the response to higher CO2 levels, and of the coupling between the carbon and water cycles are therefore critical to forecasting seasonal climate, water cycle dynamics and to enhance the accuracy of extreme event prediction under future climate.

Atypical Particle Heating at a Supercritical Interplanetary Shock

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, Lynn B., III

2010-01-01

We present the first observations at an interplanetary shock of large amplitude (> 100 mV/m pk-pk) solitary waves and large amplitude (approx.30 mV/m pk-pk) waves exhibiting characteristics consistent with electron Bernstein waves. The Bernstein-like waves show enhanced power at integer and half-integer harmonics of the cyclotron frequency with a broadened power spectrum at higher frequencies, consistent with the electron cyclotron drift instability. The Bernstein-like waves are obliquely polarized with respect to the magnetic field but parallel to the shock normal direction. Strong particle heating is observed in both the electrons and ions. The observed heating and waveforms are likely due to instabilities driven by the free energy provided by reflected ions at this supercritical interplanetary shock. These results offer new insights into collisionless shock dissipation and wave-particle interactions in the solar wind.

Excitation of small-scale waves in the F region of the ionosphere by powerful HF radio waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blagoveshchenskaya, N. F.; Chernyshev, M. Y.; Kornienko, V. A.

1998-01-01

Ionospheric small-scale waves in the F region, initiated by heating facilities in Nizhniy Novgorod, have been studied by the method of field-aligned scattering of diagnostic HF radio signals. Experimental data have been obtained on the radio path Kiev-N. Novgorod-St. Petersburg during heating campaigns with heater radiated power ERP = 20 MW and 100 MW. Observations of scattered HF signals have been made by a Doppler spectrum device with high temporal resolution. Analysis of the experimental data shows a relation between the heater power level and the parameters of ionospheric small-scale oscillations falling within the range of Pc 3-4 magnetic pulsations. It is found that the periods of wave processes in the F region of the ionosphere, induced by the heating facility, decrease with increasing heating power. The level of heating power also has an impact on the horizontal east-west component of the electric field E, the vertical component of the Doppler velocity Vd and the amplitude of the vertical displacements M of the heated region. Typical magnitudes of these parameters are the following: E = 1.25 mVm, Vd = 6 ms, M = 600-1500 m for ERP = 20 MW and E = 2.5-4.5 mVm, Vd = 11-25 ms, M = 1000-5000 m for ERP = 100 MW. The results obtained confirm the hypothesis of excitation of the Alfvén resonator by powerful HF radio waves which leads to the generation of magnetic field oscillations in the heated region giving rise to artificial Pc 3-4 magnetic pulsations and ionospheric small-scale wave processes. In this situation an increase of the heater power would lead to a growth of the electric field of hydromagnetic waves propagating in the ionosphere as well as the amplitude of the vertical displacements of the heated region.

Excess mortality during heat waves and cold spells in Moscow, Russia.

PubMed

Revich, B; Shaposhnikov, D

2008-10-01

To estimate excess mortality during heat waves and cold spells, and to identify vulnerable population groups by age and cause of death. Daily mortality in Moscow, Russia from all non-accidental, cardiovascular and respiratory causes between January 2000 and February 2006 was analysed. Mortality and displaced mortality during cold spells and heat waves were estimated using independent samples t tests. Cumulative excess non-accidental mortality during the 2001 heat wave was 33% (95% CI 20% to 46%), or approximately 1200 additional deaths, with short-term displaced mortality contributing about 10% of these. Mortality from coronary heart disease increased by 32% (95% CI 16% to 48%), cerebrovascular mortality by 51% (95% CI 29% to 73%) and respiratory mortality by 80% (95% CI 57% to 101%). In the 75+ age group, corresponding mortality increments were consistently higher except respiratory deaths. An estimated 560 extra deaths were observed during the three heat waves of 2002, when non-accidental mortality increased by 8.5%, 7.8% and 6.1%, respectively. About 40% of these deaths were brought forward by only a few days, bringing net mortality change down to 3.2% (95% CI 0.8% to 5.5%). The cumulative effects of the two cold spells in 2006 on mortality were significant only in the 75+ age group, for which average daily mortality from all non-accidental causes increased by 9.9% (95% CI 8.0% to 12%) and 8.9% (95% CI 6.7% to 11%), resulting in 370 extra deaths; there were also significant increases in coronary disease mortality and cerebrovascular mortality. This study confirms that daily mortality in Moscow increases during heat waves and cold spells. A considerable proportion of excess deaths during heat waves occur a short time earlier than they would otherwise have done. Harvesting, or short-term mortality displacement, may be less significant for longer periods of sustained heat stress.

Compact acoustic refrigerator

DOEpatents

Bennett, Gloria A.

1992-01-01

A compact acoustic refrigeration system actively cools components, e.g., electrical circuits (22), in a borehole environment. An acoustic engine (12, 14) includes first thermodynamic elements (12) for generating a standing acoustic wave in a selected medium. An acoustic refrigerator (16, 26, 28) includes second thermodynamic elements (16) located in the standing wave for generating a relatively cold temperature at a first end of the second thermodynamic elements (16) and a relatively hot temperature at a second end of the second thermodynamic elements (16). A resonator volume (18) cooperates with the first and second thermodynamic elements (12, 16) to support the standing wave. To accommodate the high heat fluxes required for heat transfer to/from the first and second thermodynamic elements (12, 16), first heat pipes (24, 26) transfer heat from the heat load (22) to the second thermodynamic elements (16) and second heat pipes (28, 32) transfer heat from first and second thermodynamic elements (12, 16) to the borehole environment.

Loop heating by D.C. electric current and electromagnetic wave emissions simulated by 3-D EM particle zone

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sakai, J. I.; Zhao, J.; Nishikawa, K.-I.

1994-01-01

We have shown that a current-carrying plasma loop can be heated by magnetic pinch driven by the pressure imbalance between inside and outside the loop, using a 3-dimensional electromagnetic (EM) particle code. Both electrons and ions in the loop can be heated in the direction perpendicular to the ambient magnetic field, therefore the perpendicular temperature can be increased about 10 times compared with the parallel temperature. This temperature anisotropy produced by the magnetic pinch heating can induce a plasma instability, by which high-frequency electromagnetic waves can be excited. The plasma current which is enhanced by the magnetic pinch can also excite a kinetic kink instability, which can heat ions perpendicular to the magnetic field. The heating mechanism of ions as well as the electromagnetic emission could be important for an understanding of the coronal loop heating and the electromagnetic wave emissions from active coronal regions.

A biometeorology study of climate and heat-related morbidity in Phoenix from 2001 to 2006

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Golden, Jay S.; Hartz, Donna; Brazel, Anthony; Luber, George; Phelan, Patrick

2008-07-01

Heat waves kill more people in the United States than hurricanes, tornadoes, earthquakes, and floods combined. Recently, international attention focused on the linkages and impacts of human health vulnerability to urban climate when Western Europe experienced over 30,000 excess deaths during the heat waves of the summer of 2003—surpassing the 1995 heat wave in Chicago, Illinois, that killed 739. While Europe dealt with heat waves, in the United States, Phoenix, Arizona, established a new all-time high minimum temperature for the region on July 15, 2003. The low temperature of 35.5°C (96°F) was recorded, breaking the previous all-time high minimum temperature record of 33.8°C (93°F). While an extensive literature on heat-related mortality exists, greater understanding of influences of heat-related morbidity is required due to climate change and rapid urbanization influences. We undertook an analysis of 6 years (2001 2006) of heat-related dispatches through the Phoenix Fire Department regional dispatch center to examine temporal, climatic and other non-spatial influences contributing to high-heat-related medical dispatch events. The findings identified that there were no significant variations in day-of-week dispatch events. The greatest incidence of heat-related medical dispatches occurred between the times of peak solar irradiance and maximum diurnal temperature, and during times of elevated human comfort indices (combined temperature and relative humidity).

A biometeorology study of climate and heat-related morbidity in Phoenix from 2001 to 2006.

PubMed

Golden, Jay S; Hartz, Donna; Brazel, Anthony; Luber, George; Phelan, Patrick

2008-07-01

Heat waves kill more people in the United States than hurricanes, tornadoes, earthquakes, and floods combined. Recently, international attention focused on the linkages and impacts of human health vulnerability to urban climate when Western Europe experienced over 30,000 excess deaths during the heat waves of the summer of 2003-surpassing the 1995 heat wave in Chicago, Illinois, that killed 739. While Europe dealt with heat waves, in the United States, Phoenix, Arizona, established a new all-time high minimum temperature for the region on July 15, 2003. The low temperature of 35.5 degrees C (96 degrees F) was recorded, breaking the previous all-time high minimum temperature record of 33.8 degrees C (93 degrees F). While an extensive literature on heat-related mortality exists, greater understanding of influences of heat-related morbidity is required due to climate change and rapid urbanization influences. We undertook an analysis of 6 years (2001-2006) of heat-related dispatches through the Phoenix Fire Department regional dispatch center to examine temporal, climatic and other non-spatial influences contributing to high-heat-related medical dispatch events. The findings identified that there were no significant variations in day-of-week dispatch events. The greatest incidence of heat-related medical dispatches occurred between the times of peak solar irradiance and maximum diurnal temperature, and during times of elevated human comfort indices (combined temperature and relative humidity).

Effects of modification of the polar ionosphere with high-power short-wave extraordinary-mode HF waves produced by the spear heating facility

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borisova, T. D.; Blagoveshchenskaya, N. F.; S. Kalishin, A.; Oksavik, K.; Baddelley, L.; K. Yeoman, T.

2012-06-01

We present the results of modifying the F2 layer of the polar ionosphere experimentally with highpower HF extraordinary-mode waves. The experiments were performed in October 2010 using the short-wave SPEAR heating facility (Longyearbyen, Spitsbergen). To diagnose the effects of high-power HF waves by the aspect-scattering method in a network of diagnostic paths, we used the short-wave Doppler radar CUTLASS (Hankasalmi, Finland) and the incoherent scatter radar ESR (Longyearbyen, Spitsbergen). Excitation of small-scale artificial ionospheric irregularities was revealed, which were responsible for the aspect and backward scattering of the diagnostic signals. The measurements performed by the ESR incoherent scatter radar simultaneously with the heating demonstrated changes in the parameters of the ionospheric plasma, specifically, an increase in the electron density by 10-25 % and an increase in the electron temperature by 10-30 % at the altitudes of the F2 layer, as well as formation of sporadic ionization at altitudes of 140-180 km (below the F2 layer maximum). To explain the effects of ionosphere heating with HF extraordinary-mode waves, we propose a hypothesis of transformation of extraordinary electromagnetic waves to ordinary in the anisotropic, smoothly nonuniform ionosphere.

The 2010 Pakistan Flood and Russian Heat Wave: Teleconnection of Hydrometeorological Extremes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, William K. M.; Kim, Kyu-Myong

2012-01-01

In this paper, preliminary results are presented showing that the two record-setting extreme events during 2010 summer (i.e., the Russian heat wave-wildfires and Pakistan flood) were physically connected. It is found that the Russian heat wave was associated with the development of an extraordinarily strong and prolonged extratropical atmospheric blocking event in association with the excitation of a large-scale atmospheric Rossby wave train spanning western Russia, Kazakhstan, and the northwestern China-Tibetan Plateau region. The southward penetration of upper-level vorticity perturbations in the leading trough of the Rossby wave was instrumental in triggering anomalously heavy rain events over northern Pakistan and vicinity in mid- to late July. Also shown are evidences that the Russian heat wave was amplified by a positive feedback through changes in surface energy fluxes between the atmospheric blocking pattern and an underlying extensive land region with below-normal soil moisture. The Pakistan heavy rain events were amplified and sustained by strong anomalous southeasterly flow along the Himalayan foothills and abundant moisture transport from the Bay of Bengal in connection with the northward propagation of the monsoonal intraseasonal oscillation.

[Analysis of gene expression pattern in peripheral blood leukocytes during experimental heat wave].

PubMed

Feoktistova, E S; Skamrov, A V; Goryunova, L E; Khaspekov, G L; Osyaeva, M K; Rodnenkov, O V; Beabealashvilli, R Sh

2017-03-01

The conditions of Moscow 2010 summer heat wave were simulated in an accommodation module. Six healthy men aged from 22 to 46 years stayed in the module for 30 days. Measurements of gene expression in peripheral blood leukocytes before, during and 3 day after simulated heat wave were performed using qRT-PCR. We observed a shift in the expression level of certain genes after heat exposure for a long time, and rapid return to the initial level, when volunteers leaved the accommodation module. Eight genes were chosen to form the "heat expression signature". EGR2, EGR3 were upregulated in all six volunteers, EGR1, SIRT1, CYP51A1, MAPK9, BAG5, MNDA were upregulated in 5 volunteers.

Heat-flow equation motivated by the ideal-gas shock wave.

PubMed

Holian, Brad Lee; Mareschal, Michel

2010-08-01

We present an equation for the heat-flux vector that goes beyond Fourier's Law of heat conduction, in order to model shockwave propagation in gases. Our approach is motivated by the observation of a disequilibrium among the three components of temperature, namely, the difference between the temperature component in the direction of a planar shock wave, versus those in the transverse directions. This difference is most prominent near the shock front. We test our heat-flow equation for the case of strong shock waves in the ideal gas, which has been studied in the past and compared to Navier-Stokes solutions. The new heat-flow treatment improves the agreement with nonequilibrium molecular-dynamics simulations of hard spheres under strong shockwave conditions.

Effect of the Environmental Stimuli upon the Human Body in Winter Outdoor Thermal Environment

PubMed Central

Kurazumi, Yoshihito; Kondo, Emi; Ishii, Jin; Sakoi, Tomonori; Fukagawa, Kenta; Bolashikov, Zhecho Dimitrov; Tsuchikawa, Tadahiro; Matsubara, Naoki; Horikoshi, Tetsumi

2013-01-01

In order to manage the outdoor thermal environment with regard to human health and the environmental impact of waste heat, quantitative evaluations are indispensable. It is necessary to use a thermal environment evaluation index. The purpose of this paper is to clarify the relationship between the psychological thermal responses of the human body and winter outdoor thermal environment variables. Subjective experiments were conducted in the winter outdoor environment. Environmental factors and human psychological responses were measured. The relationship between the psychological thermal responses of the human body and the outdoor thermal environment index ETFe (enhanced conduction-corrected modified effective temperature) in winter was shown. The variables which influence the thermal sensation vote of the human body are air temperature, long-wave thermal radiation and short-wave solar radiation. The variables that influence the thermal comfort vote of the human body are air temperature, humidity, short-wave solar radiation, long-wave thermal radiation, and heat conduction. Short-wave solar radiation, and heat conduction are among the winter outdoor thermal environment variables that affect psychological responses to heat. The use of thermal environment evaluation indices that comprise short-wave solar radiation and heat conduction in winter outdoor spaces is a valid approach. PMID:23861691

Simulated heat waves affected alpine grassland only in combination with drought.

PubMed

De Boeck, Hans J; Bassin, Seraina; Verlinden, Maya; Zeiter, Michaela; Hiltbrunner, Erika

2016-01-01

The Alpine region is warming fast, and concurrently, the frequency and intensity of climate extremes are increasing. It is currently unclear whether alpine ecosystems are sensitive or resistant to such extremes. We subjected Swiss alpine grassland communities to heat waves with varying intensity by transplanting monoliths to four different elevations (2440-660 m above sea level) for 17 d. Half of these were regularly irrigated while the other half were deprived of irrigation to additionally induce a drought at each site. Heat waves had no significant impacts on fluorescence (Fv /Fm , a stress indicator), senescence and aboveground productivity if irrigation was provided. However, when heat waves coincided with drought, the plants showed clear signs of stress, resulting in vegetation browning and reduced phytomass production. This likely resulted from direct drought effects, but also, as measurements of stomatal conductance and canopy temperatures suggest, from increased high-temperature stress as water scarcity decreased heat mitigation through transpiration. The immediate responses to heat waves (with or without droughts) recorded in these alpine grasslands were similar to those observed in the more extensively studied grasslands from temperate climates. Responses following climate extremes may differ in alpine environments, however, because the short growing season likely constrains recovery. © 2015 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2015 New Phytologist Trust.

An Analysis of the Impact of Heat Waves in Labor and Crop Productivity in the Agricultural Sector in California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castillo, F.; Wehner, M. F.; Gilless, J. K.

2017-12-01

California agriculture is an important economic activity for the state. California leads the nation in farms sales since 1950. In addition, agricultural employment in California reached approximately 410,000. Production of many fruits and vegetables is labor intensive and labor costs represent anywhere from 20% to 40% of total production costs. In additon, agricutlural production growth has been the highest for labor intensive crops such as berries (all types) and nuts. Given the importance of the agricultural sector and the labor component whithin it, the analysis of the impact of climate change on the agricultural sector of California becomes imperative. Heat waves are a weather related extreme that impact labor productivity, specially outdoor labor producitivity. We use crop production function analysis that incorporates socio economic variables such as crop prices, total acreage, production levels and harvest timiline with climate related variables such as an estimated Heat Index (HI) to analize the impact of heat waves on crop production via an impact on labor productivity for selected crops in the Central and Imperial Valleys in California. The analysis finds that the impact of heat waves varies by the degree of labor intensity of the crop and the relative intensity of the heat wave.

ELF/VLF Wave Generation and Scattering from Modulated Heating of the Ionosphere at Arecibo Observatory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maxworth, A. S.; Golkowski, M.; McCormick, J.; Cohen, M.; Hosseini, P.; Bittle, J.

2017-12-01

The recently completed ionospheric heater at Arecibo Observatory is used for modulated HF (5 or 8 MHz) heating of the ionosphere, to generate ELF/VLF (3 Hz - 30 kHz) waves. Observation of ramp and tone signals at frequencies from hundreds of Hz to several kHz at multiple receivers confirms the ability of the heater to modulate D region currents and create an ELF/VLF antenna in the ionosphere. Observed ELF/VLF signal amplitudes are lower than for similar experiments performed at high latitudes at the HAARP and Tromso facilities, for a variety of reasons including the reduced natural currents at mid latitudes, and the lower HF power of the Arecibo heater. The heating of the overhead ionosphere is also observed to change the Earth-ionosphere waveguide propagation characteristics as is evident from simultaneous observations of lightning induced sferics and VLF transmitter signals that propagate under the heated region. The active heating of the ionosphere modifies the reflection of incident VLF (3-30 kHz) waves. We present initial observations of HF heating of the D-region and resulting ELF/VLF wave generation.

On the theory of coronal heating mechanisms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kuperus, M.; Ionson, J. A.; Spicer, D. S.

1980-01-01

Theoretical models describing solar coronal heating mechanisms are reviewed in some detail. The requirements of chromospheric and coronal heating are discussed in the context of the fundamental constraints encountered in modelling the outer solar atmosphere. Heating by acoustic processes in the 'nonmagnetic' parts of the atmosphere is examined with particular emphasis on the shock wave theory. Also discussed are theories of heating by electrodynamic processes in the magnetic regions of the corona, either magnetohydrodynamic waves or current heating in the regions with large electric current densities (flare type heating). Problems associated with each of the models are addressed.

A one-dimensional heat transfer model for parallel-plate thermoacoustic heat exchangers.

PubMed

de Jong, J A; Wijnant, Y H; de Boer, A

2014-03-01

A one-dimensional (1D) laminar oscillating flow heat transfer model is derived and applied to parallel-plate thermoacoustic heat exchangers. The model can be used to estimate the heat transfer from the solid wall to the acoustic medium, which is required for the heat input/output of thermoacoustic systems. The model is implementable in existing (quasi-)1D thermoacoustic codes, such as DeltaEC. Examples of generated results show good agreement with literature results. The model allows for arbitrary wave phasing; however, it is shown that the wave phasing does not significantly influence the heat transfer.

Kinetic Effects in Parametric Instabilities of Finite Amplitude Alfven Waves in a Drifting Multi-Species Plasma

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maneva, Y. G.; Araneda, J. A.; Poedts, S.

2014-12-01

We consider parametric instabilities of finite-amplitude large-scale Alfven waves in a low-beta collisionless multi-species plasma, consisting of fluid electrons, kinetic protons and a drifting population of minor ions. Complementary to many theoretical studies, relying on fluid or multi-fluid approach, in this work we present the solutions of the parametric instability dispersion relation, including kinetic effects in the parallel direction, along the ambient magnetic field. This provides us with the opportunity to predict the importance of some wave-particle interactions like Landau damping of the daughter ion-acoustic waves for the given pump wave and plasma conditions. We apply the dispersion relation to plasma parameters, typical for low-beta collisionless solar wind close to the Sun. We compare the analytical solutions to the linear stage of hybrid numerical simulations and discuss the application of the model to the problems of preferential heating and differential acceleration of minor ions in the solar corona and the fast solar wind. The results of this study provide tools for prediction and interpretation of the magnetic field and particles data as expected from the future Solar Orbiter and Solar Probe Plus missions.

Particle swarm optimization of the sensitivity of a cryogenic gravitational wave detector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Michimura, Yuta; Komori, Kentaro; Nishizawa, Atsushi; Takeda, Hiroki; Nagano, Koji; Enomoto, Yutaro; Hayama, Kazuhiro; Somiya, Kentaro; Ando, Masaki

2018-06-01

Cryogenic cooling of the test masses of interferometric gravitational wave detectors is a promising way to reduce thermal noise. However, cryogenic cooling limits the incident power to the test masses, which limits the freedom of shaping the quantum noise. Cryogenic cooling also requires short and thick suspension fibers to extract heat, which could result in the worsening of thermal noise. Therefore, careful tuning of multiple parameters is necessary in designing the sensitivity of cryogenic gravitational wave detectors. Here, we propose the use of particle swarm optimization to optimize the parameters of these detectors. We apply it for designing the sensitivity of the KAGRA detector, and show that binary neutron star inspiral range can be improved by 10%, just by retuning seven parameters of existing components. We also show that the sky localization of GW170817-like binaries can be further improved by a factor of 1.6 averaged across the sky. Our results show that particle swarm optimization is useful for designing future gravitational wave detectors with higher dimensionality in the parameter space.

Two-Dimensional Vlasov Simulations of Fast Stochastic Electron Heating in Ionospheric Modification Experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Speirs, David Carruthers; Eliasson, Bengt; Daldorff, Lars K. S.

2017-10-01

Ionospheric heating experiments using high-frequency ordinary (O)-mode electromagnetic waves have shown the induced formation of magnetic field-aligned density striations in the ionospheric F region, in association with lower hybrid (LH) and upper hybrid (UH) turbulence. In recent experiments using high-power transmitters, the creation of new plasma regions and the formation of descending artificial ionospheric layers (DAILs) have been observed. These are attributed to suprathermal electrons ionizing the neutral gas, so that the O-mode reflection point and associated turbulence is moving to a progressively lower altitude. We present the results of two-dimensional (2-D) Vlasov simulations used to study the mode conversion of an O-mode pump wave to trapped UH waves in a small-scale density striation of circular cross section. Subsequent multiwave parametric decays lead to UH and LH turbulence and to the excitation of electron Bernstein (EB) waves. Large-amplitude EB waves result in rapid stochastic electron heating when the wave amplitude exceeds a threshold value. For typical experimental parameters, the electron temperature is observed to rise from 1,500 K to about 8,000 K in a fraction of a millisecond, much faster than Ohmic heating due to collisions which occurs on a timescale of an order of a second. This initial heating could then lead to further acceleration due to Langmuir turbulence near the critical layer. Stochastic electron heating therefore represents an important potential mechanism for the formation of DAILs.

Willingness to Pay for Measures of Managing the Health Effects of Heat Wave in Beijing, China: a Cross-sectional Survey.

PubMed

Zhang, Yi; Chen, Chen; Ban, Jie; Zhao, Jin Hui; Xu, Dan Dan; Zhu, Peng Fei; Li, Tian Tian

2016-09-01

There are evidences that heat wave events cause deaths and emergency cases. This article used the contingent valuation method to find the willingness to pay for the protective measures and investigated the factors that influence the willingness to pay. A cross-sectional face-to-face household survey was completed by 637 urban long-term residents and 591 rural long-term residents aged 15-79 in Beijing, China. Binary logistic regression was used to identify factors that influenced the payment rate or payment amount for the protective measures, including independent variables for district, gender, age, education, income, air conditioner ownership, heat wave experience, and chronic non-communicable disease. The payment rate was 41.1% for protective measures provided by the government and 39.5% by measures provided by the market. Most of the respondents were willing to pay 40 CNY per capita annually for measures provided by the government or the market. The factors influencing willingness to pay were district, gender, income, air conditioner ownership, heat wave experience, and chronic non-communicable disease.. Protective measures for heat waves need to be provided immediately. More attention should be paid to the situation of vulnerable groups, such as people who live in urban areas, those without air conditioning, and those who have experienced a heat wave in the past. Copyright © 2016 The Editorial Board of Biomedical and Environmental Sciences. Published by China CDC. All rights reserved.

A Novel Web Application to Analyze and Visualize Extreme Heat Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, G.; Jones, H.; Trtanj, J.

2016-12-01

Extreme heat is the leading cause of weather-related deaths in the United States annually and is expected to increase with our warming climate. However, most of these deaths are preventable with proper tools and services to inform the public about heat waves. In this project, we have investigated the key indicators of a heat wave, the vulnerable populations, and the data visualization strategies of how those populations most effectively absorb heat wave data. A map-based web app has been created that allows users to search and visualize historical heat waves in the United States incorporating these strategies. This app utilizes daily maximum temperature data from NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network which contains about 2.7 million data points from over 7,000 stations per year. The point data are spatially aggregated into county-level data using county geometry from US Census Bureau and stored in Postgres database with PostGIS spatial capability. GeoServer, a powerful map server, is used to serve the image and data layers (WMS and WFS). The JavaScript-based web-mapping platform Leaflet is used to display the temperature layers. A number of functions have been implemented for the search and display. Users can search for extreme heat events by county or by date. The "by date" option allows a user to select a date and a Tmax threshold which then highlights all of the areas on the map that meet those date and temperature parameters. The "by county" option allows the user to select a county on the map which then retrieves a list of heat wave dates and daily Tmax measurements. This visualization is clean, user-friendly, and novel because while this sort of time, space, and temperature measurements can be found by querying meteorological datasets, there does not exist a tool that neatly packages this information together in an easily accessible and non-technical manner, especially in a time where climate change urges a better understanding of heat waves.

Monitoring and understanding changes in heat waves, cold waves, floods, and droughts in the United States: State of knowledge

USGS Publications Warehouse

Peterson, Thomas C.; Heim, Richard R.; Hirsch, Robert M.; Kaiser, Dale P.; Brooks, Harold; Diffenbaugh, Noah S.; Dole, Randall M.; Giovannettone, Jason P.; Guirguis, Kristen; Karl, Thomas R.; Katz, Richard W.; Kunkel, Kenneth E.; Lettenmaier, Dennis P.; McCabe, Gregory J.; Paciorek, Christopher J.; Ryberg, Karen R.; K Wolter, BS Silva; Schubert, Siegfried; Silva, Viviane B. S.; Stewart, Brooke C.; Vecchia, Aldo V.; Villarini, Gabriele; Vose, Russell S.; Walsh, John; Wehner, Michael; Wolock, David; Wolter, Klaus; Woodhouse, Connie A.; Wuebbles, Donald

2013-01-01

Weather and climate extremes have been varying and changing on many different time scales. In recent decades, heat waves have generally become more frequent across the United States, while cold waves have been decreasing. While this is in keeping with expectations in a warming climate, it turns out that decadal variations in the number of U.S. heat and cold waves do not correlate well with the observed U.S. warming during the last century. Annual peak flow data reveal that river flooding trends on the century scale do not show uniform changes across the country. While flood magnitudes in the Southwest have been decreasing, flood magnitudes in the Northeast and north-central United States have been increasing. Confounding the analysis of trends in river flooding is multiyear and even multidecadal variability likely caused by both large-scale atmospheric circulation changes and basin-scale “memory” in the form of soil moisture. Droughts also have long-term trends as well as multiyear and decadal variability. Instrumental data indicate that the Dust Bowl of the 1930s and the drought in the 1950s were the most significant twentieth-century droughts in the United States, while tree ring data indicate that the megadroughts over the twelfth century exceeded anything in the twentieth century in both spatial extent and duration. The state of knowledge of the factors that cause heat waves, cold waves, floods, and drought to change is fairly good with heat waves being the best understood.

A COMPARATIVE STUDY ON SPECTRAL ENERGETICS BETWEEN THE NCEP reanalysisII in current climate AND MODEL ECHAM5 in future scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aranha, A. F.; Veiga, J. P.

2013-12-01

Saltzman (1957) starting Lorenz Cycle (1955) derived a set of equations that show the energy contained in the basic state and the disturbed atmosphere, decomposing in various fields disturbance wave type, so as to quantify and analyze the energy of these disorders according to their number or wavelength. Based on the methodology Saltzman, this paper aims a comparative study between the energy of the disturbed state between the NCEP reanalysis-II for the current weather conditions and model ECHAM5 scenarios for future conditions of increased concentration of greenhouse gases (RCP26, RCP45 and RCP85), considering the terms of the generation of available potential energy to nth wave due to diabatic heating, represented by (Gn), the potential energy of nth wave (Pn) and kinetic energy of nth wave (Kn), as well as the conversion of energy between kinetic energy and potential energy nth wave of nth wave, given by (Cn). Two data sets were used in the calculation of the aforementioned terms. For the data set of NCEP and ECHAM5 were used variables, temperature (T), orthogonal wind components (u, v, w) and geopotential height (L), considering daily shared values on a regular grid with spatial resolutions of 2,5 x 2.5 and 1.875 x 1.875 graus, distributed on 12 and 15 levels of pressure (1000.0, 925.0, 850.0, 700.0, 600.0, 500.0, 400.0, 300.0, 250.0, 200.0, 150.0, 100.0 hPa), (1000.0, 850.0, 700.0, 500.0, 250.0, 150.0, 100.0, 70.0, 50.0, 30.0, 10.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.3, 0.1 hPa) for the period of 1979-1999 and 2090-2100, respectively. The results show that most of the kinetic energy of disturbance to nth waves is concentrated in the first 15 wave numbers, both for the weather-NCEP II as to ECHAM5, having more significant increase in the profile and having a RCP85 energy cascade. This increase in kinetic energy was expected due to the increased energy in the system. For Pn, increasing the potential energy is also expected in view of the increased diabatic heating, but the energy jump is large spectrum in the range of 1 a 5, growth or accumulation of energy is visible in the figure wave, almost double the energy accumulated by the wave number 2, a derivative obeying the strong energy in the wave spectrum. We can conclude that the energy contained in a nonlinear way on the biggest waves are not shared aplenty. According to the results, the term conversion in Kn Pn, represented by Cn, reveals important characteristics in the energy spectrum. This we note that Pn feeds both the planetary waves and intermediate waves as synoptic scale. However, the production of Kn from Pn is added to the first wave specifically. It is also observed that Cn does not show large variations along the spectral profile. It is noteworthy that the energy conversions of RCP's are much smaller than the energy conversions NCEP-II, indicating that when there are increased concentrations of greenhouse gases is increasing Gen. therefore increased Pn and fall in Cn. Negative values of Cn are likely to occur, which would represent the conversion of kinetic energy into potential energy of the waves of the basic state.

Multi-fluid Approach to High-frequency Waves in Plasmas. III. Nonlinear Regime and Plasma Heating

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martínez-Gómez, David; Soler, Roberto; Terradas, Jaume

2018-03-01

The multi-fluid modeling of high-frequency waves in partially ionized plasmas has shown that the behavior of magnetohydrodynamic waves in the linear regime is heavily influenced by the collisional interaction between the different species that form the plasma. Here, we go beyond linear theory and study large-amplitude waves in partially ionized plasmas using a nonlinear multi-fluid code. It is known that in fully ionized plasmas, nonlinear Alfvén waves generate density and pressure perturbations. Those nonlinear effects are more pronounced for standing oscillations than for propagating waves. By means of numerical simulations and analytical approximations, we examine how the collisional interaction between ions and neutrals affects the nonlinear evolution. The friction due to collisions dissipates a fraction of the wave energy, which is transformed into heat and consequently raises the temperature of the plasma. As an application, we investigate frictional heating in a plasma with physical conditions akin to those in a quiescent solar prominence.

Heat waves in Portugal: Current regime, changes in future climate and impacts on extreme wildfires.

PubMed

Parente, J; Pereira, M G; Amraoui, M; Fischer, E M

2018-08-01

Heat waves (HW) can have devastating social, economic and environmental impacts. Together with long-term drought, they are the main factors contributing to wildfires. Surprisingly, the quantitative and objective analysis leading to the identification and characterization of HW in current and future climate conditions as well as its influence on the occurrence of extreme wildfires (EW) has never been performed for Portugal and are the main objectives of this study. For this reason, we assess HW in recent past and future climate based on a consistent high resolution meteorological database and have compared their occurrence with long and reliable, precise and detailed information about Portuguese fire events. Results include the characterization of HW frequency, duration, seasonality and intensity for current and different future climate conditions and their relationship with EW occurrence. We detected 130 HW between 1981 and 2010, concentrated between May and October and highest values in July and August. The highest HW number and duration is found over the Northeast corner and the south of the country while highest amplitudes are typically located in central area. HW characteristics present high inter-annual variability but are clearly associated to the temporal and spatial distribution of EW: 97% of total number of EW were active during an HW, 90% of total EW days were also HW days; 82% of the EW had duration completely contained in the duration of an HW; and, 83% of EW occurred during and in the area affected by HW. Our results also show that HW should increase in number, duration and amplitude, more significantly for RCP 8.5, and for the 30-year periods near the end of the 21st century. Findings of this study will support the definition of climate change adaptation strategies for fire danger and risk management. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Optimizing an ELF/VLF Phased Array at HAARP

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fujimaru, S.; Moore, R. C.

2013-12-01

The goal of this study is to maximize the amplitude of 1-5 kHz ELF/VLF waves generated by ionospheric HF heating and measured at a ground-based ELF/VLF receiver. The optimization makes use of experimental observations performed during ELF/VLF wave generation experiments at the High-frequency Active Auroral Research Program (HAARP) Observatory in Gakona, Alaska. During these experiments, the amplitude, phase, and propagation delay of the ELF/VLF waves were carefully measured. The HF beam was aimed at 15 degrees zenith angle in 8 different azimuthal directions, equally spaced in a circle, while broadcasting a 3.25 MHz (X-mode) signal that was amplitude modulated (square wave) with a linear frequency-time chirp between 1 and 5 kHz. The experimental observations are used to provide reference amplitudes, phases, and propagation delays for ELF/VLF waves generated at these specific locations. The presented optimization accounts for the trade-off between duty cycle, heated area, and the distributed nature of the source region in order to construct a "most efficient" phased array. The amplitudes and phases generated by modulated heating at each location are combined in post-processing to find an optimal combination of duty cycle, heating location, and heating order.

Climate change projections of heat stress in Europe: From meteorological variables to impacts on productivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Casanueva, Ana; Kotlarski, Sven; Liniger, Mark A.

2017-04-01

Future climate change is likely to have important impacts in many socio-economic sectors. In particular, higher summer temperatures or more prolonged heat waves may be responsible for health problems and productivity losses related to heat stress, especially affecting people exposed to such situations (e.g. working under outside settings or in non-acclimatized workplaces). Heat stress on the body under work load and consequently their productivity loss can be described through heat stress indices that are based on multiple meteorological parameters such as temperature, humidity, wind and radiation. Exploring the changes of these variables under a warmer climate is of prime importance for the Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability communities. In particular, the H2020 project HEAT-SHIELD aims at analyzing the impact of climate change on heat stress in strategic industries in Europe (manufacturing, construction, transportation, tourism and agriculture) within an inter-sectoral framework (climate scientists, biometeorologists, physiologists and stakeholders). In the present work we explore present and future heat stress over Europe using an ensemble of the state-of-the-art RCMs from the EURO-CORDEX initiative. Since RCMs cannot be directly used in impact studies due to their partly substantial biases, a standard bias correction method (empirical quantile mapping) is applied to correct the individual variables that are then used to derive heat stress indices. The objectives of this study are twofold, 1) to test the ability of the separately bias corrected variables to reproduce the main characteristics of heat stress indices in present climate conditions and 2) to explore climate change projections of heat stress indices. We use the wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) as primary heat stress index, considering two different versions for indoor (or in the shade, based on temperature and humidity conditions) and outdoor settings (including also wind and radiation). The WBGT is the most widely used heat stress index for working people and can be easily interpreted by means of ISO standards. Within the HEAT-SHIELD project, climate change projections of the WBGT will be used to assess the impact of climate change on workers' health and productivity.

A numerical study of three-dimensional diurnal variations within the thermosphere.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Volland, H.; Mayr, H. G.

1973-01-01

A thermosphere model with a realistic temperature profile is assumed. Heat conduction waves are introduced in addition to gravity waves. The temporal and spatial distribution of ion-neutral collisions is taken into account. However, the influence of viscosity waves is neglected. Viscosity-wave effects are simulated by an effective height-dependent collision number. Numerical calculations are conducted of the generation and propagation of two of the most important symmetric tidal waves at thermospheric heights. The influence of the solar EUV-heat upon the generation of the two tidal modes is investigated.

Impacts of Snow Darkening by Absorbing Aerosols on Eurasian Climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kim, Kyu-Myong; Lau, William K M.; Yasunari, Teppei J.; Kim, Maeng-Ki; Koster, Randal D.

2016-01-01

The deposition of absorbing aerosols on snow surfaces reduces snow-albedo and allows snowpack to absorb more sunlight. This so-called snow darkening effect (SDE) accelerates snow melting and leads to surface warming in spring. To examine the impact of SDE on weather and climate during late spring and early summer, two sets of NASA GEOS-5 model simulations with and without SDE are conducted. Results show that SDE-induced surface heating is particularly pronounced in Eurasian regions where significant depositions of dust transported from the North African deserts, and black carbon from biomass burning from Asia and Europe occur. In these regions, the surface heating due to SDE increases surface skin temperature by 3-6 degrees Kelvin near the snowline in spring. Surface energy budget analysis indicates that SDE-induced excess heating is associated with a large increase in surface evaporation, subsequently leading to a significant reduction in soil moisture, and increased risks of drought and heat waves in late spring to early summer. Overall, we find that rainfall deficit combined with SDE-induced dry soil in spring provide favorable condition for summertime heat waves over large regions of Eurasia. Increased frequency of summer heat waves with SDE and the region of maximum increase in heat-wave frequency are found along the snow line, providing evidence that early snowmelt by SDE may increase the risks of extreme summer heat wave. Our results suggest that climate models that do not include SDE may significantly underestimate the effect of global warming over extra-tropical continental regions.

Microwave and Millimeter Wave Testing for the Inspection of the Space Shuttle Spray on Foam Insulations (SOFI) and the Acreage Heat Tiles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zoughi, R.; Kharkovsky, S.; Hepburn, F. L.

2005-01-01

The utility of microwave and millimeter wave nondestructive testing and evaluation (NDT&E) methods, for testing the Space Shuttle's external he1 tank spray on foam insulation (SOFI) and the acreage heat tiles has been investigated during the past two years. Millimeter wave NDE techniques are capable of producing internal images of SOFI. This paper presents the results of testing several diverse panels with embedded voids and debonds at millimeter wave frequencies. Additionally, the results of testing a set of heat tiles are also presented. Finally, the attributes of these methods as well as the advantageous features associated with these systems are also provided.

Simulations of fully deformed oscillating flux tubes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karampelas, K.; Van Doorsselaere, T.

2018-02-01

Context. In recent years, a number of numerical studies have been focusing on the significance of the Kelvin-Helmholtz instability in the dynamics of oscillating coronal loops. This process enhances the transfer of energy into smaller scales, and has been connected with heating of coronal loops, when dissipation mechanisms, such as resistivity, are considered. However, the turbulent layer is expected near the outer regions of the loops. Therefore, the effects of wave heating are expected to be confined to the loop's external layers, leaving their denser inner parts without a heating mechanism. Aim. In the current work we aim to study the spatial evolution of wave heating effects from a footpoint driven standing kink wave in a coronal loop. Methods: Using the MPI-AMRVAC code, we performed ideal, three dimensional magnetohydrodynamic simulations of footpoint driven transverse oscillations of a cold, straight coronal flux tube, embedded in a hotter environment. We have also constructed forward models for our simulation using the FoMo code. Results: The developed transverse wave induced Kelvin-Helmholtz (TWIKH) rolls expand throughout the tube cross-section, and cover it entirely. This turbulence significantly alters the initial density profile, leading to a fully deformed cross section. As a consequence, the resistive and viscous heating rate both increase over the entire loop cross section. The resistive heating rate takes its maximum values near the footpoints, while the viscous heating rate at the apex. Conclusions: We conclude that even a monoperiodic driver can spread wave heating over the whole loop cross section, potentially providing a heating source in the inner loop region. Despite the loop's fully deformed structure, forward modelling still shows the structure appearing as a loop. A movie attached to Fig. 1 is available at http://https://www.aanda.org

Measuring the seeds of ion outflow: auroral sounding rocket observations of low-altitude ion heating and circulation

DOE PAGES

Fernandes, P. A.; Lynch, K. A.; Zettergren, M.; ...

2016-01-25

Here, we present an analysis of in situ measurements from the MICA (Magnetosphere-Ionosphere Coupling in the Alfvén Resonator) nightside auroral sounding rocket with comparisons to a multifluid ionospheric model. MICA made observations at altitudes below 325 km of the thermal ion kinetic particle distributions that are the origins of ion outflow. Late flight, in the vicinity of an auroral arc, we observe frictional processes controlling the ion temperature. Upflow of these cold ions is attributed to either the ambipolar field resulting from the heated electrons or possibly to ion-neutral collisions. We measure E →xB → convection away from the arcmore » (poleward) and downflows of hundreds of m s -1 poleward of this arc, indicating small-scale low-altitude plasma circulation. In the early flight we observe DC electromagnetic Poynting flux and associated ELF wave activity influencing the thermal ion temperature in regions of Alfvénic aurora. We observe enhanced, anisotropic ion temperatures which we conjecture are caused by transverse heating by wave-particle interactions (WPI) even at these low altitudes. Throughout this region we observe several hundred m s -1 upflow of the bulk thermal ions colocated with WPI; however, the mirror force is negligible at these low energies; thus, the upflow is attributed to ambipolar fields (or possibly neutral upwelling drivers). Moreover, the low-altitude MICA observations serve to inform future ionospheric modeling and simulations of (a) the need to consider the effects of heating by WPI at altitudes lower than previously considered viable and (b) the occurrence of structured and localized upflows/downflows below where higher-altitude heating rocesses are expected.« less

Measuring the seeds of ion outflow: auroral sounding rocket observations of low-altitude ion heating and circulation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fernandes, P. A.; Lynch, K. A.; Zettergren, M.

Here, we present an analysis of in situ measurements from the MICA (Magnetosphere-Ionosphere Coupling in the Alfvén Resonator) nightside auroral sounding rocket with comparisons to a multifluid ionospheric model. MICA made observations at altitudes below 325 km of the thermal ion kinetic particle distributions that are the origins of ion outflow. Late flight, in the vicinity of an auroral arc, we observe frictional processes controlling the ion temperature. Upflow of these cold ions is attributed to either the ambipolar field resulting from the heated electrons or possibly to ion-neutral collisions. We measure E →xB → convection away from the arcmore » (poleward) and downflows of hundreds of m s -1 poleward of this arc, indicating small-scale low-altitude plasma circulation. In the early flight we observe DC electromagnetic Poynting flux and associated ELF wave activity influencing the thermal ion temperature in regions of Alfvénic aurora. We observe enhanced, anisotropic ion temperatures which we conjecture are caused by transverse heating by wave-particle interactions (WPI) even at these low altitudes. Throughout this region we observe several hundred m s -1 upflow of the bulk thermal ions colocated with WPI; however, the mirror force is negligible at these low energies; thus, the upflow is attributed to ambipolar fields (or possibly neutral upwelling drivers). Moreover, the low-altitude MICA observations serve to inform future ionospheric modeling and simulations of (a) the need to consider the effects of heating by WPI at altitudes lower than previously considered viable and (b) the occurrence of structured and localized upflows/downflows below where higher-altitude heating rocesses are expected.« less

Artificial plasma cusp generated by upper hybrid instabilities in HF heating experiments at HAARP

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuo, Spencer; Snyder, Arnold

2013-05-01

High Frequency Active Auroral Research Program digisonde was operated in a fast mode to record ionospheric modifications by the HF heating wave. With the O mode heater of 3.2 MHz turned on for 2 min, significant virtual height spread was observed in the heater off ionograms, acquired beginning the moment the heater turned off. Moreover, there is a noticeable bump in the virtual height spread of the ionogram trace that appears next to the plasma frequency (~ 2.88 MHz) of the upper hybrid resonance layer of the HF heating wave. The enhanced spread and the bump disappear in the subsequent heater off ionograms recorded 1 min later. The height distribution of the ionosphere in the spread situation indicates that both electron density and temperature increases exceed 10% over a large altitude region (> 30 km) from below to above the upper hybrid resonance layer. This "mini cusp" (bump) is similar to the cusp occurring in daytime ionograms at the F1-F2 layer transition, indicating that there is a small ledge in the density profile reminiscent of F1-F2 layer transitions. Two parametric processes exciting upper hybrid waves as the sidebands by the HF heating waves are studied. Field-aligned purely growing mode and lower hybrid wave are the respective decay modes. The excited upper hybrid and lower hybrid waves introduce the anomalous electron heating which results in the ionization enhancement and localized density ledge. The large-scale density irregularities formed in the heat flow, together with the density irregularities formed through the parametric instability, give rise to the enhanced virtual height spread. The results of upper hybrid instability analysis are also applied to explain the descending feature in the development of the artificial ionization layers observed in electron cyclotron harmonic resonance heating experiments.

Improved heat transfer modeling of the eye for electromagnetic wave exposures.

PubMed

Hirata, Akimasa

2007-05-01

This study proposed an improved heat transfer model of the eye for exposure to electromagnetic (EM) waves. Particular attention was paid to the difference from the simplified heat transfer model commonly used in this field. From our computational results, the temperature elevation in the eye calculated with the simplified heat transfer model was largely influenced by the EM absorption outside the eyeball, but not when we used our improved model.

Heat-transfer characteristics of the R113 annular two-phase closed thermosyphon - Heat transfer in the condenser

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maezawa, Saburo; Tsuchida, Akira; Takuma, Masao

1988-08-01

Visual observation of flow patterns in the condenser and heat transfer measurements were conducted for heat transfer rate ranges of 18-800 W using a vertical annular device with various quantities of R113 as a working fluid. As a result of visual observations, it was shown that ripples (interfacial waves) were generated on the condensate film surface when the condensate film Reynolds number exceeded approximately 20, and the condensation heat transfer was prompted. A simple theoretical analysis was presented in which the effects of interfacial waves and vapor drag were both considered. This analysis agreed very well with experimental results when the working fluid quantity was small enough so that the two-phase mixture generated by boiling the working fluid did not reach the condenser. The effects of interfacial waves and vapor drag on condensation heat transfer were also investigated theoretically.

Comparison between off-resonance and electron Bernstein waves heating regime in a microwave discharge ion source

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Castro, G.; Di Giugno, R.; Miracoli, R.

2012-02-15

A microwave discharge ion source (MDIS) operating at the Laboratori Nazionali del Sud of INFN, Catania has been used to compare the traditional electron cyclotron resonance (ECR) heating with an innovative mechanisms of plasma ignition based on the electrostatic Bernstein waves (EBW). EBW are obtained via the inner plasma electromagnetic-to-electrostatic wave conversion and they are absorbed by the plasma at cyclotron resonance harmonics. The heating of plasma by means of EBW at particular frequencies enabled us to reach densities much larger than the cutoff ones. Evidences of EBW generation and absorption together with X-ray emissions due to high energy electronsmore » will be shown. A characterization of the discharge heating process in MDISs as a generalization of the ECR heating mechanism by means of ray tracing will be shown in order to highlight the fundamental physical differences between ECR and EBW heating.« less

On the sensitivities of idealized moist baroclinic waves to environmental temperature and moist convection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kirshbaum, Daniel; Merlis, Timothy; Gyakum, John; McTaggart-Cowan, Ron

2017-04-01

The impact of cloud diabatic heating on baroclinic life cycles has been studied for decades, with the nearly universal finding that this heating enhances the system growth rate. However, few if any studies have systematically addressed the sensitivity of baroclinic waves to environmental temperature. For a given relative humidity, warmer atmospheres contain more moisture than colder atmospheres. They also are more prone to the development of deep moist convection, which is itself a major source of diabatic heating. Thus, it is reasonable to expect faster baroclinic wave growth in warmer systems. To address this question, this study performs idealized simulations of moist baroclinic waves in a periodic channel, using initial environments with identical relative humidities, dry stabilities, and dry available potential energies but varying environmental temperatures and moist instabilities. While the dry versions of these simulations exhibit virtually identical wave growth, the moist versions exhibit major differences in life cycle. Counter-intuitively, despite slightly faster initial wave growth, the warmer and moister waves ultimately develop into weaker baroclinic systems with an earlier onset of the decay phase. An energetics analysis reveals that the reduced wave amplitude in the warmer cases stems from a reduced transfer of available potential energy into eddy potential energy. This reduced energy transfer is associated with an unfavorable phasing of mid-to-upper-level thermal and vorticity anomalies, which limits the meridional heat flux.

Identifying Wave-Particle Interactions in the Solar Wind using Statistical Correlations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Broiles, T. W.; Jian, L. K.; Gary, S. P.; Lepri, S. T.; Stevens, M. L.

2017-12-01

Heavy ions are a trace component of the solar wind, which can resonate with plasma waves, causing heating and acceleration relative to the bulk plasma. While wave-particle interactions are generally accepted as the cause of heavy ion heating and acceleration, observations to constrain the physics are lacking. In this work, we statistically link specific wave modes to heavy ion heating and acceleration. We have computed the Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) of transverse and compressional magnetic waves between 0 and 5.5 Hz using 9 days of ACE and Wind Magnetometer data. The FFTs are averaged over plasma measurement cycles to compute statistical correlations between magnetic wave power at each discrete frequency, and ion kinetic properties measured by ACE/SWICS and Wind/SWE. The results show that lower frequency transverse oscillations (< 0.2 Hz) and higher frequency compressional oscillations (> 0.4 Hz) are positively correlated with enhancements in the heavy ion thermal and drift speeds. Moreover, the correlation results for the He2+ and O6+ were similar on most days. The correlations were often weak, but most days had some frequencies that correlated with statistical significance. This work suggests that the solar wind heavy ions are possibly being heated and accelerated by both transverse and compressional waves at different frequencies.

The contribution of radio-frequency rectification to field-aligned losses of high-harmonic fast wave power to the divertor in the National Spherical Torus eXperiment

DOE PAGES

Perkins, R. J.; Hosea, J. C.; Jaworski, M. A.; ...

2015-04-13

The National Spherical Torus eXperiment (NSTX) can exhibit a major loss of high-harmonic fast wave (HHFW) power along scrape-off layer (SOL) field lines passing in front of the antenna, resulting in bright and hot spirals on both the upper and lower divertor regions. One possible mechanism for this loss is RF sheaths forming at the divertors. We demonstrate that swept-voltage Langmuir probe characteristics for probes under the spiral are shifted relative to those not under the spiral in a manner consistent with RF rectification. We estimate both the magnitude of the RF voltage across the sheath and the sheath heatmore » flux transmission coefficient in the presence of the RF field. Though the precise comparison between computed heat flux and infrared (IR) thermography cannot yet be made, the computed heat deposition compares favorably with the projections from IR camera measurements. The RF sheath losses are significant and contribute substantially to the total SOL losses of HHFW power to the divertor for the cases studied. Our work will guide future experimentation on NSTX-U, where a wide-angle IR camera and a dedicated set of coaxial Langmuir probes for measuring the RF sheath voltage directly will quantify the contribution of RF sheath rectification to the heat deposition from the SOL to the divertor.« less

Did we see the 2011 summer heat wave coming?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luo, Lifeng; Zhang, Yan

2012-05-01

A series of climate extreme events affected many parts of the US during 2011, including the severe drought in Texas, the spring tornado outbreak in the southern states, and the weeklong summer heat wave in the Central Plains. Successful prediction of these events can better inform and prepare the general public to cope with these extremes. In this study, we investigate the operational capability of the new NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) in predicting the 2011 summer heat wave. We found that starting from April 2011, the operational CFSv2 forecast consistently suggested an elevated probability of extremely hot days during the forthcoming summer over the Central Plains, and as the summer was approaching the forecast became more certain about the summer heat wave in its geographic location, intensity and timing. This study demonstrates the capability of the new seasonal forecast system and its potential usefulness in decision making process.

Upper Atmosphere Heating From Ocean-Generated Acoustic Wave Energy

DOE PAGES

Bowman, D. C.; Lees, J. M.

2018-04-27

We present that colliding sea surface waves generate the ocean microbarom, an acoustic signal that may transmit significant energy to the upper atmosphere. Previous estimates of acoustic energy flux from the ocean microbarom and mountain-wind interactions are on the order of 0.01 to 1 mW/m 2, heating the thermosphere by tens of Kelvins per day. We captured upgoing ocean microbarom waves with a balloon-borne infrasound microphone; the maximum acoustic energy flux was approximately 0.05 mW/m 2. This is about half the average value reported in previous ground-based microbarom observations spanning 8 years. The acoustic flux from the microbarom episode describedmore » here may have heated the thermosphere by several Kelvins per day while the source persisted. Lastly, we suggest that ocean wave models could be used to parameterize acoustically generated heating of the upper atmosphere based on sea state.« less

Hot weather in Potsdam in the years 1896-2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tomczyk, Arkadiusz M.

2018-02-01

The main objective of this article was the analysis of multiannual variability in the occurrence of hot days and heat waves in Potsdam in the last 120 years. The article used data concerning the maximum and minimum daily air temperature in Potsdam between 1896 and 2015, which were obtained from the Deutscher Wetterdienst database. A hot day was defined as a day with T max >30 °C, and a heat wave was considered a sequence of at least three hot days. The analysed multiannual period showed a statistically significant increase in T max in summer, which was 0.13 °C per 10 years. The observed increase in T max translated into an increase in the number of hot days and, consequently, in the frequency of the occurrence of heat waves. Within the analysed multiannual period, the lowest number of heat waves was recorded between 1896 and 1905, while the highest was observed between 2006 and 2015.

Upper Atmosphere Heating From Ocean-Generated Acoustic Wave Energy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bowman, D. C.; Lees, J. M.

We present that colliding sea surface waves generate the ocean microbarom, an acoustic signal that may transmit significant energy to the upper atmosphere. Previous estimates of acoustic energy flux from the ocean microbarom and mountain-wind interactions are on the order of 0.01 to 1 mW/m 2, heating the thermosphere by tens of Kelvins per day. We captured upgoing ocean microbarom waves with a balloon-borne infrasound microphone; the maximum acoustic energy flux was approximately 0.05 mW/m 2. This is about half the average value reported in previous ground-based microbarom observations spanning 8 years. The acoustic flux from the microbarom episode describedmore » here may have heated the thermosphere by several Kelvins per day while the source persisted. Lastly, we suggest that ocean wave models could be used to parameterize acoustically generated heating of the upper atmosphere based on sea state.« less

Heat stress increase under climate change twice as large in cities as in rural areas: A study for a densely populated midlatitude maritime region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wouters, Hendrik; De Ridder, Koen; Poelmans, Lien; Willems, Patrick; Brouwers, Johan; Hosseinzadehtalaei, Parisa; Tabari, Hossein; Vanden Broucke, Sam; van Lipzig, Nicole P. M.; Demuzere, Matthias

2017-09-01

Urban areas are usually warmer than their surrounding natural areas, an effect known as the urban heat island effect. As such, they are particularly vulnerable to global warming and associated increases in extreme temperatures. Yet ensemble climate-model projections are generally performed on a scale that is too coarse to represent the evolution of temperatures in cities. Here, for the first time, we combine unprecedented long-term (35 years) urban climate model integrations at the convection-permitting scale (2.8 km resolution) with information from an ensemble of general circulation models to assess temperature-based heat stress for Belgium, a densely populated midlatitude maritime region. We discover that the heat stress increase toward the mid-21st century is twice as large in cities compared to their surrounding rural areas. The exacerbation is driven by the urban heat island itself, its concurrence with heat waves, and urban expansion. Cities experience a heat stress multiplication by a factor 1.4 and 15 depending on the scenario. Remarkably, the future heat stress surpasses everywhere the urban hot spots of today. Our results demonstrate the need to combine information from climate models, acting on different scales, for climate change risk assessment in heterogeneous regions. Moreover, these results highlight the necessity for adaptation to increasing heat stress, especially in urban areas.

Developing the science and technology for the Material Plasma Exposure eXperiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rapp, J.; Biewer, T. M.; Bigelow, T. S.; Caneses, J. F.; Caughman, J. B. O.; Diem, S. J.; Goulding, R. H.; Isler, R. C.; Lumsdaine, A.; Beers, C. J.; Bjorholm, T.; Bradley, C.; Canik, J. M.; Donovan, D.; Duckworth, R. C.; Ellis, R. J.; Graves, V.; Giuliano, D.; Green, D. L.; Hillis, D. L.; Howard, R. H.; Kafle, N.; Katoh, Y.; Lasa, A.; Lessard, T.; Martin, E. H.; Meitner, S. J.; Luo, G.-N.; McGinnis, W. D.; Owen, L. W.; Ray, H. B.; Shaw, G. C.; Showers, M.; Varma, V.; the MPEX Team

2017-11-01

Linear plasma generators are cost effective facilities to simulate divertor plasma conditions of present and future fusion reactors. They are used to address important R&D gaps in the science of plasma material interactions and towards viable plasma facing components for fusion reactors. Next generation plasma generators have to be able to access the plasma conditions expected on the divertor targets in ITER and future devices. The steady-state linear plasma device MPEX will address this regime with electron temperatures of 1-10 eV and electron densities of 1021{\\text{}}-1020 m-3 . The resulting heat fluxes are about 10 MW m-2 . MPEX is designed to deliver those plasma conditions with a novel Radio Frequency plasma source able to produce high density plasmas and heat electron and ions separately with electron Bernstein wave (EBW) heating and ion cyclotron resonance heating with a total installed power of 800 kW. The linear device Proto-MPEX, forerunner of MPEX consisting of 12 water-cooled copper coils, has been operational since May 2014. Its helicon antenna (100 kW, 13.56 MHz) and EC heating systems (200 kW, 28 GHz) have been commissioned and 14 MW m-2 was delivered on target. Furthermore, electron temperatures of about 20 eV have been achieved in combined helicon and ECH heating schemes at low electron densities. Overdense heating with EBW was achieved at low heating powers. The operational space of the density production by the helicon antenna was pushed up to 1.1 × 1020 m-3 at high magnetic fields of 1.0 T at the target. The experimental results from Proto-MPEX will be used for code validation to enable predictions of the source and heating performance for MPEX. MPEX, in its last phase, will be capable to expose neutron-irradiated samples. In this concept, targets will be irradiated in ORNL’s High Flux Isotope Reactor and then subsequently exposed to fusion reactor relevant plasmas in MPEX.

PROTON HEATING BY PICK-UP ION DRIVEN CYCLOTRON WAVES IN THE OUTER HELIOSPHERE: HYBRID EXPANDING BOX SIMULATIONS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hellinger, Petr; Trávníček, Pavel M., E-mail: petr.hellinger@asu.cas.cz

Using a one-dimensional hybrid expanding box model, we investigate properties of the solar wind in the outer heliosphere. We assume a proton–electron plasma with a strictly transverse ambient magnetic field and, aside from the expansion, we take into account the influence of a continuous injection of cold pick-up protons through the charge-exchange process between the solar wind protons and hydrogen of interstellar origin. The injected cold pick-up protons form a ring distribution function, which rapidly becomes unstable, and generate Alfvén cyclotron waves. The Alfvén cyclotron waves scatter pick-up protons to a spherical shell distribution function that thickens over that timemore » owing to the expansion-driven cooling. The Alfvén cyclotron waves heat solar wind protons in the perpendicular direction (with respect to the ambient magnetic field) through cyclotron resonance. At later times, the Alfvén cyclotron waves become parametrically unstable and the generated ion-acoustic waves heat protons in the parallel direction through Landau resonance. The resulting heating of the solar wind protons is efficient on the expansion timescale.« less

Heat-Related Mortality in India: Excess All-Cause Mortality Associated with the 2010 Ahmedabad Heat Wave

PubMed Central

Azhar, Gulrez Shah; Mavalankar, Dileep; Nori-Sarma, Amruta; Rajiva, Ajit; Dutta, Priya; Jaiswal, Anjali; Sheffield, Perry; Knowlton, Kim; Hess, Jeremy J.; Azhar, Gulrez Shah; Deol, Bhaskar; Bhaskar, Priya Shekhar; Hess, Jeremy; Jaiswal, Anjali; Khosla, Radhika; Knowlton, Kim; Mavalankar, Mavalankar; Rajiva, Ajit; Sarma, Amruta; Sheffield, Perry

2014-01-01

Introduction In the recent past, spells of extreme heat associated with appreciable mortality have been documented in developed countries, including North America and Europe. However, far fewer research reports are available from developing countries or specific cities in South Asia. In May 2010, Ahmedabad, India, faced a heat wave where the temperatures reached a high of 46.8°C with an apparent increase in mortality. The purpose of this study is to characterize the heat wave impact and assess the associated excess mortality. Methods We conducted an analysis of all-cause mortality associated with a May 2010 heat wave in Ahmedabad, Gujarat, India, to determine whether extreme heat leads to excess mortality. Counts of all-cause deaths from May 1–31, 2010 were compared with the mean of counts from temporally matched periods in May 2009 and 2011 to calculate excess mortality. Other analyses included a 7-day moving average, mortality rate ratio analysis, and relationship between daily maximum temperature and daily all-cause death counts over the entire year of 2010, using month-wise correlations. Results The May 2010 heat wave was associated with significant excess all-cause mortality. 4,462 all-cause deaths occurred, comprising an excess of 1,344 all-cause deaths, an estimated 43.1% increase when compared to the reference period (3,118 deaths). In monthly pair-wise comparisons for 2010, we found high correlations between mortality and daily maximum temperature during the locally hottest “summer” months of April (r = 0.69, p<0.001), May (r = 0.77, p<0.001), and June (r = 0.39, p<0.05). During a period of more intense heat (May 19–25, 2010), mortality rate ratios were 1.76 [95% CI 1.67–1.83, p<0.001] and 2.12 [95% CI 2.03–2.21] applying reference periods (May 12–18, 2010) from various years. Conclusion The May 2010 heat wave in Ahmedabad, Gujarat, India had a substantial effect on all-cause excess mortality, even in this city where hot temperatures prevail through much of April-June. PMID:24633076

Reversible electron heating vs. wave-particle interactions in quasi-perpendicular shocks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Veltri, P.; Mangeney, A.; Scudder, J. D.

1992-01-01

The energy necessary to explain the electron heating in quasi-perpendicular collisionless shocks can be derived either from the electron acceleration in the d.c. cross shock electric potential, or by the interactions between the electrons and the waves existing in the shock. A Monte Carlo simulation has been performed to study the electron distribution function evolution through the shock structure, with and without particle diffusion on waves. This simulation has allowed us to clarify the relative importance of the two possible energy sources; in particular it has been shown that the electron parallel temperature is determined by the d.c. electromagnetic field and not by any wave-particle-induced heating. Wave particle interactions are effective in smoothing out the large gradients in phase space produced by the 'reversible' motion of the electrons, thus producing a 'cooling' of the electrons.

Land surface and atmospheric conditions associated with heat waves over the Chickasaw Nation in the South Central United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Eungul; Bieda, Rahama; Shanmugasundaram, Jothiganesh; Basara Richter, Heather

2016-06-01

Exposure to extreme heat was reconstructed based on regional land-atmosphere processes from 1979 to 2010 in the South Central U.S. The study region surrounds the Chickasaw Nation (CN), a predominantly Native American population with a highly prevalent burden of climate-sensitive chronic diseases. Land surface and atmospheric conditions for summer heat waves were analyzed during spring (March-April-May, MAM) and summer (June-July-August, JJA) based on the Climate and Ocean: Variability, Predictability, and Change maximum temperature definition for heat wave frequency (HWF). The spatial-temporal pattern of HWF was determined using empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis and the corresponding principle component time series of the first EOF of HWF. Statistically significant analyses of observed conditions indicated that sensible heat increased and latent heat fluxes decreased with high HWF in the South Central U.S. The largest positive correlations of sensible heat flux to HWF and the largest negative correlations of latent heat flux to HWF were specifically observed over the CN. This is a significantly different energy transfer regime due to less available soil moisture during the antecedent MAM and JJA. The higher sensible heat from dry soil could cause significant warming from the near surface (>2.0°C) to the lower troposphere (>1.5°C), and accumulated boundary layer heat could induce the significant patterns of higher geopotential height and enhance anticyclonic circulations (negative vorticity anomaly) at the midtroposphere. Results suggested a positive land-atmosphere feedback associated with heat waves and called attention to the need for region-specific climate adaptation planning.

Land surface and atmospheric conditions associated with heat waves in the South Central United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Eungul; Bieda, Rahama; Shanmugasundaram, Jothiganesh; Richter, Heather

2017-04-01

Exposure to extreme heat was reconstructed based on regional land-atmosphere processes from 1979 to 2010 in the South Central U.S. The study region surrounds the Chickasaw Nation (CN), a predominantly Native American population with a highly prevalent burden of climate-sensitive chronic diseases. Land surface and atmospheric conditions for summer heat waves were analyzed during spring (March-April-May, MAM) and summer (June-July-August, JJA) based on the Climate and Ocean: Variability, Predictability, and Change maximum temperature definition for heat wave frequency (HWF). The spatial-temporal pattern of HWF was determined using empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis and the corresponding principle component time series of the first EOF of HWF. Statistically significant analyses of observed conditions indicated that sensible heat increased and latent heat fluxes decreased with high HWF in the South Central U.S. The largest positive correlations of sensible heat flux to HWF and the largest negative correlations of latent heat flux to HWF were specifically observed over the CN. This is a significantly different energy transfer regime due to less available soil moisture during the antecedent MAM and JJA. The higher sensible heat from dry soil could cause significant warming from the near surface (> 2.0°C) to the lower troposphere (> 1.5°C), and accumulated boundary layer heat could induce the significant patterns of higher geopotential height and enhance anticyclonic circulations (negative vorticity anomaly) at the midtroposphere. Results suggested a positive land-atmosphere feedback associated with heat waves and called attention to the need for region-specific climate adaptation planning.

Comparison of the effects induced by the ordinary (O-mode) and extraordinary (X-mode) polarized powerful HF radio waves in the high-latitude ionospheric F region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blagoveshchenskaya, N. F.; Borisova, T. D.; Kalishin, A. S.; Kayatkin, V. N.; Yeoman, T. K.; Häggström, I.

2018-01-01

Using the results of coordinated experiments on the modification of the high-latitude ionosphere by powerful HF radio emission of the EISCAT/Heating facility, effects of the impact of powerful HF radio waves of the ordinary (O-mode) and extraordinary (X-mode) polarization on the high-latitude ionospheric F region have been compared. During the experiments, a powerful HF radio wave was emitted in the magnetic zenith direction at frequencies within the 4.5-7.9 MHz range. The effective power of the emission was 150-650 MW. The behavior and characteristics of small-scale artificial ionospheric irregularities (SAIIs) during O- and X-heating at low and high frequencies are considered in detail. A principal difference has been found in the development of the Langmuir and ion-acoustic turbulence (intensified by the heating of the plasma and ion-acoustic lines in the spectrum of the EISCAT radar of incoherent scatter of radio waves) in the O- and X-heating cycles after switching on the heating facility. It has been shown that, under the influence on the ionospheric plasma of a powerful HF radio wave of the X-polarization, intense spectral components in the spectrum of the narrow-band artificial ionospheric radio emission (ARI) were registered at distances on the order of 1200 km from the heating facility.

Heating and Acceleration of Solar Wind Ions by Turbulent Wave Spectrum in Inhomogeneous Expanding Plasma

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ofman, Leon; Ozak, Nataly; Vinas, Adolfo F.

2016-01-01

Near the Sun (< 10Rs) the acceleration, heating, and propagation of the solar wind are likely affected by the background inhomogeneities of the magnetized plasma. The heating and the acceleration of the solar wind ions by turbulent wave spectrum in inhomogeneous plasma is studied using a 2.5D hybrid model. The hybrid model describes the kinetics of the ions, while the electrons are modeled as massless neutralizing fluid in an expanding box approach. Turbulent magnetic fluctuations dominated by power-law frequency spectra, which are evident from in-situ as well as remote sensing measurements, are used in our models. The effects of background density inhomogeneity across the magnetic field on the resonant ion heating are studied. The effect of super- Alfvenic ion drift on the ion heating is investigated. It is found that the turbulent wave spectrum of initially parallel propagating waves cascades to oblique modes, and leads to enhanced resonant ion heating due to the inhomogeneity. The acceleration of the solar wind ions is achieved by the parametric instability of large amplitude waves in the spectrum, and is also affected by the inhomogeneity. The results of the study provide the ion temperature anisotropy and drift velocity temporal evolution due to relaxation of the instability. The non-Maxwellian velocity distribution functions (VDFs) of the ions are modeled in the inhomogeneous solar wind plasma in the acceleration region close to the Sun.

Differential ecophysiological responses and resilience to heat wave events in four co-occurring temperate tree species

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guha, Anirban; Han, Jimei; Cummings, Cadan; McLennan, David A.; Warren, Jeffrey M.

2018-06-01

Extreme summer heat waves are known to induce foliar and stem mortality in temperate forest ecosystems, yet our mechanistic knowledge of physiological thresholds for damage is lacking. Current spatiotemporal simulations of forest growth responses to climate change fail to explain the variability between co-occurring tree species to climate extremes, indicating a need for new model frameworks that include mechanistic understanding of trait-specific responses. In this context, using manipulative heat wave (hw) experiments we investigated ecophysiological responses and physiological recovery in four co-occurring temperate tree species of the southeastern United States including three deciduous angiosperms: southern red oak (Quercus falcata Michx.), shumard oak (Q. shumardii Buckl.) and, tulip-poplar (Liriodendron tulipifera L.) and one evergreen conifer: eastern white pine (Pinus strobus L.). The objectives were to investigate inter-specific differences in ecophysiological responses to hw events to understand mechanistic differences in resilience that may be useful for future model development. Two-year-old, well-irrigated potted saplings were exposed to progressively increasing extreme hw diurnal cycles followed by a recovery cycle, with peak midday air temperature increasing from 37 °C to a maximum of 51 °C on the third day of the hw. Plants were assessed for various photosynthetic and water use responses, chlorophyll fluorescence and photosystem-II (PSII) activity, leaf temperature and foliar pigments. Intense heat caused progressive down-regulation in net photosynthesis, but the stomata remained operational, which helped cool leaves through loss of latent heat. Even though whole plant transpiration increased for all species, the rate plateaued at higher hw events that allowed leaf temperature to exceed 45 °C, well beyond the optimal range. A significant increase in non-photochemical quenching over the hw cycles was evident in all species though indications of both transient and chronic PSII damage were evident in the most heat sensitive species, pine and tulip poplar. The oaks, especially Q. falcata, showed greater thermotolerance than other species with a higher threshold for photodamage to PSII, rapid overnight recovery of photoinhibition and minimal heat-induced canopy necrosis. We conclude that these co-occurring tree species exhibit large variability in thermotolerance and in their capability to repair both transient and chronic photodamage. Our results indicate that extreme heat induced damage to PSII within the leaf chloroplasts may be a mechanistic trait that can be used to project how different species respond to extreme weather events.

Assessment of the Impact of the 2003 and 2006 Heat Waves on Cattle Mortality in France

PubMed Central

Morignat, Eric; Perrin, Jean-Baptiste; Gay, Emilie; Vinard, Jean-Luc; Calavas, Didier; Hénaux, Viviane

2014-01-01

Objectives While several studies have highlighted and quantified human mortality during the major heat waves that struck Western Europe in 2003 and 2006, the impact on farm animals has been overlooked. The aim of this study was to assess the effect of these two events on cattle mortality in France, one of the most severely impacted countries. Methods Poisson regressions were used to model the national baseline for cattle mortality between 2004 and 2005 and predict the weekly number of expected deaths in 2003 and 2006 for the whole cattle population and by subpopulation based on age and type of production. Observed and estimated values were compared to identify and quantify excess mortality. The same approach was used at a departmental scale (a French department being an administrative and territorial division) to assess the spatio-temporal evolution of the mortality pattern. Results Overall, the models estimated relative excess mortality of 24% [95% confidence interval: 22–25%] for the two-week heat wave of 2003, and 12% [11–14%] for the three-week heat wave of 2006. In 2003, most cattle subpopulations were impacted during the heat wave and some in the following weeks too. In 2006, cattle subpopulations were impacted for a limited time only, with no excess mortality at the beginning or after the heat wave. No marked differences in cattle mortality were found among the different subpopulations by age and type of production. The implications of these results for risk prevention are discussed. PMID:24667835

Shock-induced heating and millisecond boiling in gels and tissue due to high intensity focused ultrasound

PubMed Central

Canney, Michael S.; Khokhlova, Vera A.; Bessonova, Olga V.; Bailey, Michael R.; Crum, Lawrence A.

2009-01-01

Nonlinear propagation causes high intensity ultrasound waves to distort and generate higher harmonics, which are more readily absorbed and converted to heat than the fundamental frequency. Although such nonlinear effects have previously been investigated and found not to significantly alter high intensity focused ultrasound (HIFU) treatments, two results reported here change this paradigm. One is that at clinically relevant intensity levels, HIFU waves not only become distorted but form shock waves in tissue. The other is that the generated shock waves heat the tissue to boiling in much less time than predicted for undistorted or weakly distorted waves. In this study, a 2-MHz HIFU source operating at peak intensities up to 25,000 W/cm2 was used to heat transparent tissue-mimicking phantoms and ex vivo bovine liver samples. Initiation of boiling was detected using high-speed photography, a 20-MHz passive cavitation detector, and fluctuation of the drive voltage at the HIFU source. The time to boil obtained experimentally was used to quantify heating rates and was compared to calculations using weak shock theory and the shock amplitudes obtained from nonlinear modeling and from measurements with a fiber optic hydrophone. As observed experimentally and predicted by calculations, shocked focal waveforms produced boiling in as little as 3 ms and the time to initiate boiling was sensitive to small changes in HIFU output. Nonlinear heating due to shock waves is therefore important to HIFU and clinicians should be aware of the potential for very rapid boiling since it alters treatments. PMID:20018433

Intensification of heat transfer across falling liquid films

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruyer-Quil, Christian; Cellier, Nicolas; Stutz, Benoit; Caney, Nadia; Bandelier, Philippe; Locie Team; Legi Team

2017-11-01

The wavy motion of a liquid film is well known to intensify heat or mass transfers. Yet, if film thinning and wave merging are generally invoked, the physical mechanisms which enable this intensification are still unclear. We propose a systematic investigation of the impact of wavy motions on the heat transfer across 2D falling films on hot plates as a function of the inlet frequency and flow parameters. Computations over extended domains and for sufficient durations to achieve statistically established flows have been made possible by low-dimensional modeling and the development of a fast temporal solver based on graph optimizations. Heat transfer has been modeled using the weighted residual technique as a set of two evolution equations for the free-surface temperature and the wall heat flux. This new model solves the shortcomings of previous attempts, namely their inability to capture the onset of thermal boundary layers in large-amplitude waves and their limitation to low Prandtl numbers. Our study reveals that heat transfer is enhanced at the crests of the waves and that heat transfer intensification is maximum at the maximum of density of wave crests, which does not correspond to the natural wavy regime (no inlet forcing). Supports from Institut Universitaire de France and Région Auvergne-Rhones-Alpes are warmly acknowledged.

[Impact of daily mean temperature, cold spells, and heat waves on stroke mortality a multivariable Meta-analysis from 12 counties of Hubei province, China].

PubMed

Zhang, Y Q; Yu, C H; Bao, J Z

2017-04-10

Objective: To assess the acute effects of daily mean temperature, cold spells, and heat waves on stroke mortality in 12 counties across Hubei province, China. Methods: Data related to daily mortality from stroke and meteorology in 12 counties across Hubei province during 2009-2012, were gathered. Distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) was first used, to estimate the county-specific associations between daily mean temperature, cold spells, heat waves and stroke mortality. Multivariate Meta-analysis was then applied to pool the community-specific relationships between temperature and stroke mortality (exposure-response relationship) as well as both cold- and- heat-associated risks on mortality at different lag days (lag-response relationship). Results: During 2009-2012, a total population of 6.7 million was included in this study with 42 739 persons died of stroke. An average of 2.7 (from 0.5 to 6.0) stroke deaths occurred daily in each county, with annual average mean temperature as 16.6 ℃ (from 14.7 ℃ to 17.4 ℃) during the study period. An inverse J-shaped association between temperature and stroke mortality was observed at the provincial level. Pooled mortality effect of cold spells showed a 2-3-day delay and lasted about 10 days, while effect of heat waves appeared acute but attenuated within a few days. The mortality risks on cold-spell days ranged from 0.968 to 1.523 in 12 counties at lag 3-14, with pooled effect as 1.180 (95 %CI: 1.043-1.336). The pooled mortality risk (ranged from 0.675 to 2.066) on heat-wave days at lag 0-2 was 1.114 (95 %CI: 1.012-1.227). Conclusions: An inverse J-shaped association between temperature and stroke mortality was observed in Hubei province, China. Both cold spells and heat waves were associated with increased stroke mortality, while different lag patterns were observed in the mortality effects of heat waves and cold spells.

Gravitational Collapse with Heat Flux and Gravitational Waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahmad, Zahid; Ahmed, Qazi Zahoor; Awan, Abdul Sami

2013-10-01

In this paper, we investigated the cylindrical gravitational collapse with heat flux by considering the appropriate geometry of the interior and exterior spacetimes. For this purpose, we matched collapsing fluid to an exterior containing gravitational waves.The effects of heat flux on gravitational collapse are investigated and matched with the results obtained by Herrera and Santos (Class. Quantum Gravity 22:2407, 2005).

Alpha-Stream Convertor

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dyson, Jr., Rodger William (Inventor); Bruder, Geoffrey Adam (Inventor)

2015-01-01

A thermo-acoustic engine and/or cooler is provided and includes an elongated tubular body, multiple regenerators disposed within the body, multiple heat exchangers disposed within the body, where at least one heat exchanger is disposed adjacent to each of the multiple regenerators, multiple transducers axially disposed at each end of the body, and an acoustic wave source generating acoustic waves. At least one of the acoustic waves is amplified by one of the regenerators and at least another acoustic wave is amplified by a second one of regenerators.

Atmospheric aerosol variability above the Paris Area during the 2015 heat wave - Comparison with the 2003 and 2006 heat waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chazette, Patrick; Totems, Julien; Shang, Xiaoxia

2017-12-01

The aerosol layers during the heat wave of July 2015 over Paris Area have been studied using a N2-Raman lidar with co- and cross-polarized channels. The lidar observations are examined to allow the identification of main aerosol types and their origins, in synergy with measurements of the AERONET sunphotometer network and back trajectory studies from the HYSPLIT model. The results are compatible with spaceborne observations of MODIS and CALIOP. As for previous heat waves of August 2003 and July 2006 occurring in France, the aerosol optical thickness is very large, up to 0.8 at the lidar wavelength of 355 nm (between 0.5 and 0.7 at 550 nm). However, air mass trajectories highlight that the observed aerosol layers may have multiple and diverse origins during the 2015 heat wave (North America, Northwest Africa, Southern and Northern Europe). Biomass burning, pollution and desert dust aerosols have been identified, using linear particle depolarization ratio, lidar ratio and analysis of back trajectories initiated at the altitudes and arrival times of the plumes. These layers are elevated and are shown to have little impact on surface aerosol concentrations (PM10 < 40 μg m-3 or PM2.5 < 25 μg m-3) and therefore no influence on the local air quality during the 2015 heat wave, unlike in 2003 and 2006. However, they significantly modify the radiative budget by trapping part of the solar ingoing/outgoing fluxes, which leads to a mean aerosol radiative forcing close to +50 ± 17 Wm-2 per aerosol optical thickness unit at 550 nm (AOT550) for solar zenith angles between 55 and 75°, which are available from sunphotometer measurements. This value is smaller than those of the 2003 and 2006 heat waves, which are assessed to be +95 ± 13 and +70 ± 18 Wm-2/AOT550, respectively. The differences between the heat wave of 2015 and the others are mainly due to both the nature and the diversity of aerosols, as indicated by the dispersion of the single scattering albedo distributions at 550 nm: 0.90 ± 0.03, 0.95 ± 0.02 and 0.93 ± 0.04 for 2003, 2006 and 2015, respectively.

Heat wave over India during summer 2015: an assessment of real time extended range forecast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pattanaik, D. R.; Mohapatra, M.; Srivastava, A. K.; Kumar, Arun

2017-08-01

Hot winds are the marked feature of summer season in India during late spring preceding the climatological onset of the monsoon season in June. Some years the conditions becomes very vulnerable with the maximum temperature ( T max) exceeding 45 °C for many days over parts of north-western, eastern coastal states of India and Indo-Gangetic plain. During summer of 2015 (late May to early June) eastern coastal states, central and northwestern parts of India experienced severe heat wave conditions leading to loss of thousands of human life in extreme high temperature conditions. It is not only the loss of human life but also the animals and birds were very vulnerable to this extreme heat wave conditions. In this study, an attempt is made to assess the performance of real time extended range forecast (forecast up to 3 weeks) of this scorching T max based on the NCEP's Climate Forecast System (CFS) latest version coupled model (CFSv2). The heat wave condition was very severe during the week from 22 to 28 May with subsequent week from 29 May to 4 June also witnessed high T max over many parts of central India including eastern coastal states of India. The 8 ensemble members of operational CFSv2 model are used once in a week to prepare the weekly bias corrected deterministic (ensemble mean) T max forecast for 3 weeks valid from Friday to Thursday coinciding with the heat wave periods of 2015. Using the 8 ensemble members separately and the CFSv2 corresponding hindcast climatology the probability of above and below normal T max is also prepared for the same 3 weeks. The real time deterministic and probabilistic forecasts did indicate impending heat wave over many parts of India during late May and early June of 2015 associated with strong northwesterly wind over main land mass of India, delaying the sea breeze, leading to heat waves over eastern coastal regions of India. Thus, the capability of coupled model in providing early warning of such killer heat wave can be very useful to the disaster managers to take appropriate actions to minimize the loss of life and property due to such high T max.

Heterogeneity in individually experienced temperatures (IETs) within an urban neighborhood: insights from a new approach to measuring heat exposure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuras, E. R.; Hondula, D. M.; Brown-Saracino, J.

2015-10-01

Urban environmental health hazards, including exposure to extreme heat, have become increasingly important to understand in light of ongoing climate change and urbanization. In cities, neighborhoods are often considered a homogenous and appropriate unit with which to assess heat risk. This manuscript presents results from a pilot study examining the variability of individually experienced temperatures (IETs) within a single urban neighborhood. In July 2013, 23 research participants were recruited from the South End neighborhood of Boston and equipped with Thermochron iButtons that measured the air temperatures surrounding individuals as they went about their daily lives. IETs were measured during a heat wave period (July 17-20), which included 2 days with excessive heat warnings and 1 day with a heat advisory, as well as a reference period (July 20-23) in which temperatures were below seasonal averages. IETs were not homogeneous during the heat wave period; mean IETs were significantly different between participants ( p < 0.001). The majority of participants recorded IETs significantly lower than outdoor ambient temperatures (OATs), and on average, the mean IET was 3.7 °C below the mean OAT. Compared with IETs during the reference period, IETs during the heat wave period were 1.0 °C higher. More than half of participants did not experience statistically different temperatures between the two test periods, despite the fact that the mean OAT was 6.5 °C higher during the heat wave period. The IET data collected for this sample and study period suggest that (1) heterogeneity in individual heat exposure exists within this neighborhood and that (2) outdoor temperatures misrepresent the mean experienced temperatures during a heat wave period. Individual differences in attributes (gender, race, socioeconomic status, etc.), behaviors (schedules, preferences, lifestyle, etc.), and access to resources are overlooked determinants of heat exposure and should be better integrated with group- and neighborhood-level characteristics. Understanding IETs for the population at large may lead to innovative advances in heat-health intervention and mitigation strategies.

The use of climate information to estimate future mortality from high ambient temperature: A systematic literature review.

PubMed

Sanderson, Michael; Arbuthnott, Katherine; Kovats, Sari; Hajat, Shakoor; Falloon, Pete

2017-01-01

Heat related mortality is of great concern for public health, and estimates of future mortality under a warming climate are important for planning of resources and possible adaptation measures. Papers providing projections of future heat-related mortality were critically reviewed with a focus on the use of climate model data. Some best practice guidelines are proposed for future research. The electronic databases Web of Science and PubMed/Medline were searched for papers containing a quantitative estimate of future heat-related mortality. The search was limited to papers published in English in peer-reviewed journals up to the end of March 2017. Reference lists of relevant papers and the citing literature were also examined. The wide range of locations studied and climate data used prevented a meta-analysis. A total of 608 articles were identified after removal of duplicate entries, of which 63 were found to contain a quantitative estimate of future mortality from hot days or heat waves. A wide range of mortality models and climate model data have been used to estimate future mortality. Temperatures in the climate simulations used in these studies were projected to increase. Consequently, all the papers indicated that mortality from high temperatures would increase under a warming climate. The spread in projections of future climate by models adds substantial uncertainty to estimates of future heat-related mortality. However, many studies either did not consider this source of uncertainty, or only used results from a small number of climate models. Other studies showed that uncertainty from changes in populations and demographics, and the methods for adaptation to warmer temperatures were at least as important as climate model uncertainty. Some inconsistencies in the use of climate data (for example, using global mean temperature changes instead of changes for specific locations) and interpretation of the effects on mortality were apparent. Some factors which have not been considered when estimating future mortality are summarised. Most studies have used climate data generated using scenarios with medium and high emissions of greenhouse gases. More estimates of future mortality using climate information from the mitigation scenario RCP2.6 are needed, as this scenario is the only one under which the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to 2°C or less could be realised. Many of the methods used to combine modelled data with local climate observations are simplistic. Quantile-based methods might offer an improved approach, especially for temperatures at the ends of the distributions. The modelling of adaptation to warmer temperatures in mortality models is generally arbitrary and simplistic, and more research is needed to better quantify adaptation. Only a small number of studies included possible changes in population and demographics in their estimates of future mortality, meaning many estimates of mortality could be biased low. Uncertainty originating from establishing a mortality baseline, climate projections, adaptation and population changes is important and should be considered when estimating future mortality.

A Study of Alfven Wave Propagation and Heating the Chromosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tu, J.; Song, P.

2013-12-01

Alfven wave propagation, reflection and heating of the solar atmosphere are studied for a one-dimensional solar atmosphere by self-consistently solving plasma and neutral fluid equations and Maxwell's equations with incorporation of the Hall effect, strong electron-neutral, electron-ion, and ion-neutral collisions. The governing equations are very stiff because of the strong coupling between the charged and neutral fluids. We have developed a numerical model based on an implicit backward difference formula (BDF2) of second order accuracy both in time and space to overcome the stiffness. A non-reflecting boundary condition is applied to the top boundary of the simulation domain so that the wave reflection within the domain due to the density gradient can be unambiguously determined. It is shown that the Alfven waves are partially reflected throughout the chromosphere. The reflection is increasingly stronger at higher altitudes and the strongest reflection occurs at the transition region. The waves are damped in the lower chromosphere dominantly through Joule dissipation due to electron collisions with neutrals and ions. The heating resulting from the wave damping is strong enough to balance the radiation energy loss for the quiet chromosphere. The collisional dissipation of the Alfven waves in the weakly collisional corona is negligible. The heating rates are larger for weaker background magnetic fields. In addition, higher frequency waves are subject to heavier damping. There is an upper cutoff frequency, depending on the background magnetic field, above which the waves are completely damped. At the frequencies below which the waves are not strongly damped, the waves may be strongly reflected at the transition region. The reflected waves interacting with the upward propagating waves may produce power at their double frequencies, which leads to more damping. Due to the reflection and damping, the energy flux of the waves transmitted to the corona is one order of magnitude smaller than that of the driving source.

Three-dimensional structures of equatorial waves and the resulting super-rotation in the atmosphere of a tidally locked hot Jupiter

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tsai, Shang-Min; Gu, Pin-Gao; Dobbs-Dixon, Ian

Three-dimensional (3D) equatorial trapped waves excited by stellar isolation and the resulting equatorial super-rotating jet in a vertical stratified atmosphere of a tidally locked hot Jupiter are investigated. Taking the hot Jupiter HD 189733b as a fiducial example, we analytically solve linear equations subject to stationary stellar heating with a uniform zonal-mean flow included. We also extract wave information in the final equilibrium state of the atmosphere from our radiative hydrodynamical simulation for HD 189733b. Our analytic wave solutions are able to qualitatively explain the 3D simulation results. Apart from previous wave studies, investigating the vertical structure of waves allowsmore » us to explore new wave features such as the wavefronts tilts related to the Rossby-wave resonance as well as dispersive equatorial waves. We also attempt to apply our linear wave analysis to explain some numerical features associated with the equatorial jet development seen in the general circulation model by Showman and Polvani. During the spin-up phase of the equatorial jet, the acceleration of the jet can be in principle boosted by the Rossby-wave resonance. However, we also find that as the jet speed increases, the Rossby-wave structure shifts eastward, while the Kelvin-wave structure remains approximately stationary, leading to the decline of the acceleration rate. Our analytic model of jet evolution implies that there exists only one stable equilibrium state of the atmosphere, possibly implying that the final state of the atmosphere is independent of initial conditions in the linear regime. Limitations of our linear model and future improvements are also discussed.« less

Observations and modeling of EMIC wave properties in the presence of multiple ion species as function of magnetic local time

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Justin H.; Angelopoulos, Vassilis

2014-11-01

Electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) wave generation and propagation in Earth's magnetosphere depend on readily measurable hot (a few to tens of keV) plasma sheet ions, elusive plasmaspheric or ionospheric cold (sub-eV to a few eV) ions, and partially heated warm ions (tens to hundreds of eV). Previous work has assumed all low-energy ions are cold and not considered possible effects of warm ions. Using measurements by multiple Time History of Events and Macroscale Interactions during Substorms spacecraft, we analyze four typical EMIC wave events in the four magnetic local time sectors and consider the properties of both cold and warm ions supplied from previous statistical studies to interpret the wave observations using linear theory. As expected, we find that dusk EMIC waves grow due to the presence of drifting hot anisotropic protons and cold plasmaspheric ions with a dominant cold proton component. Near midnight, EMIC waves are less common because warm heavy ions that suppress wave growth are more abundant there. The waves can grow when cold, plume-like density enhancements are present, however. Dawn EMIC waves, known for their peculiar properties, are generated away from the equator and change polarization during propagation through the warm plasma cloak. Noon EMIC waves can also be generated nonlocally and their properties modified during propagation by a plasmaspheric plume combined with low-energy ions from solar and terrestrial sources. Accounting for multiple ion species, measured wave dispersion, and propagation characteristics can explain previously elusive EMIC wave properties and are therefore important for future studies of EMIC wave effects on energetic particle depletion.

Let's Catch a (Heat) Wave

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herman, Rhett; Ballowe, Abigail; Ashley, Joe

2017-11-01

Two students in a recent thermodynamics/statistical mechanics course needed to complete a course-related project to receive honors credit for the class. Such courses are typically theoretical, without an accompanying laboratory, although there are existing related hands-on exercises. The choice of the project was influenced by one student's desire to become a mechanical engineer after graduating while the other wanted a project that was "fun" without "just doing more calculations." The choice of this particular project was further refined by the future engineer's interest in the thermodynamics of car engines.

Influence of Solar and Thermal Radiation on Future Heat Stress Using CMIP5 Archive Driving the Community Land Model Version 4.5

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buzan, J. R.; Huber, M.

2015-12-01

The summer of 2015 has experienced major heat waves on 4 continents, and heat stress left ~4000 people dead in India and Pakistan. Heat stress is caused by a combination of meteorological factors: temperature, humidity, and radiation. The International Organization for Standardization (ISO) uses Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT)—an empirical metric this is calibrated with temperature, humidity, and radiation—for determining labor capacity during heat stress. Unfortunately, most literature studying global heat stress focuses on extreme temperature events, and a limited number of studies use the combination of temperature and humidity. Recent global assessments use WBGT, yet omit the radiation component without recalibrating the metric.Here we explicitly calculate future WBGT within a land surface model, including radiative fluxes as produced by a modeled globe thermometer. We use the Community Land Model version 4.5 (CLM4.5), which is a component model of the Community Earth System Model (CESM), and is maintained by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). To drive our CLM4.5 simulations, we use greenhouse gasses Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (business as usual), and atmospheric output from the CMIP5 Archive. Humans work in a variety of environments, and we place the modeled globe thermometer in a variety of environments. We modify CLM4.5 code to calculate solar and thermal radiation fluxes below and above canopy vegetation, and in bare ground. To calculate wet bulb temperature, we implemented the HumanIndexMod into CLM4.5. The temperature, wet bulb temperature, and radiation fields are calculated at every model time step and are outputted 4x Daily. We use these fields to calculate WBGT and labor capacity for two time slices: 2026-2045 and 2081-2100.

Modeling reduction of the Urban Heat Island effect to counter-act the effects of climate change in densely built-up areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andre, Konrad; Zuvela-Aloise, Maja; Lettmayer, Gudrun; Schwaiger, Hannes Peter; Kaltenegger, Ingrid; Bird, David Neil; Woess-Gallasch, Susanne

2017-04-01

The phenomenon of Urban Heat Islands (UHIs) observed in cities, caused by changes in energy balance due to the structural development of the city as well as by sealed surfaces and a lack of vegetation, is expected to strengthen in the future and will further contribute to heat stress, creating an increased need for energy for cooling and ventilation as well as lowering human comfort. Due to a changing climate, rising heat stress, pronounced by an increased intensity or frequency of heat waves, could have far reaching implications for major Austrian cities in the near future. Simultaneous to this expected increasing of the already existing UHI-effect, it is observable, that continuous densification of the core parts of cities is being intensified through implemented traditional urban planning measures. This is particular relevant for high densely populated districts of the city. Several possible counteractions how to address this challenge are already known, partly investigated in urban modeling studies on the effects of modifying the reflective properties of buildings and urban areas for the city of Vienna. On this experience, within the Austrian FFG and KLIEN Smart Cities project JACKY COOL CHECK (Project Nr. 855554), a wide set of measures to reduce heat stress, consisting of e.g. unsealed surfaces, green areas, green roofs, improve reflective properties of different surfaces etc., for the densely built-up residential and business district of Jakomini in the city of Graz/Styria is investigated, to gain decisive data pointing out the peculiarities of UHIs and the potential cooling effects of these target measures for this local specific area. These results serving as a basis for the selection of sustainable measures that will be implemented, in coordination with local stakeholders and considering their interests.

Film condensation in a horizontal rectangular duct

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lu, Qing; Suryanarayana, N. V.

1993-01-01

Condensation heat transfer in a horizontal rectangular duct was experimentally and analytically investigated. To prevent the dripping of condensate on the film, the experiment was conducted inside a horizontal rectangular duct with vapor condensing only on the bottom cooled plate of the duct. R-113 and FC-72 (Fluorinert Electronic Fluid developed by the 3M Company) were used as the condensing fluids. The experimental program included measurements of film thickness, local and average heat transfer coefficients, wave length, wave speed, and a study of wave initiation. The measured film thickness was used to obtain the local heat transfer coefficient. The wave initiation was studied both with condensation and with an adiabatic air-liquid flow. The test sections used in both experiments were identical.

Chaos and ion heating in a slow shock

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lin, Y.; Lee, L. C.

1991-01-01

An ion heating mechanism is proposed of slow shocks, which is associated with the chaotic motion of particles in the downstream wave field. For a coherent electromagnetic wave propagating along the downstream magnetic field, corresponding to switch-off shocks, the particle motions are not chaotic. For an oblique wave, the interaction between the particles and the wave field may lead to chaotic particle motions. Such particles may be greatly thermalized within one wavelength after they are incident into the downstream wave field. The results can be used to explain the existence of the critical intermediate Mach number observed in the hybrid simulations.

Experimental and numerical investigation on thermal fluid-structure interaction on ceramic plates in high enthalpy flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Willems, Sebastian; Esser, Burkard; Gülhan, Ali

2015-12-01

A detailed knowledge of the fluid-structure interaction in hypersonic flows is important for the design of future space transportation systems. The thermal aspect of such an interaction was investigated with the help of a generic model in the arc-heated wind tunnel L3K at the German Aerospace Center in Cologne. Flat and curved panels of the fibre-reinforced ceramics C/C-SiC with and without anti-oxidation coating where used. Several configurations with and without back plane insulation were tested at 10° and 20° angle of attack. The panel heating was measured with an infrared camera, several thermocouples and pyrometers. The experimental results show the influence of the shape as well as of radiation cooling and radiation heating. The experiments also reveal the effect of additional heating due to recombination of atomic oxygen on the surface. At certain configurations a local temperature peak moved over the panel. This thermal wave is also influenced by the silicon carbide coating. The analysis is supported by coupled fluid and structure simulations.

Investigation of Third Gyro-harmonic Heating at HAARP Using Stimulated Radio Emissions, the MUIR and SuperDARN Radars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahmoudian, Alireza; Bernhardt, Paul; Ruohoniemi, J. Michael; Isham, Brett; Watkins, Brenton; Scales, Wayne

2016-07-01

Use of high frequency (HF) heating experiments has been extended in recent years as a useful methodology for plasma physicists wishing to remotely study the properties and behavior of the ionosphere as well as nonlinear plasma processes. Our recent work using high latitude heating experiments has lead to several important discoveries that have enabled assessment of active geomagnetic conditions, determination of minor ion species and their densities, ion mass spectrometry, electron temperature measurements in the heating ionosphere, as well a deeper understanding of physical processes associated with electron acceleration and formation of field aligned irregularities. The data recorded during two campaigns at HAARP in 2011 and 2012 will be presented. Several diagnostic instruments have been used to detect HAARP heater-generated ionospheric irregularities and plasma waves. These diagnostics include an ionosonde, MUIR (Modular UHF Ionospheric Radar at 446 MHz), SuperDARN HF backscatter radar and ground-based SEE receivers. Variation of the wideband/ narrowband SEE features, SuperDARN echoes, and enhanced ion lines were studied with pump power variation, pump frequency stepping near 3fce as well as changing beam angle relative to the magnetic zenith. In particular, formation of field-aligned irregularities (FAIs) and upper hybrid (UH) waves through oscillating two-stream instability (OSTI) and resonance instability is studied. During heating, Narrowband SEE (NSEE) showed enhancements that correlated with the enhanced MUIR radar ion lines. IA MSBS (Magnetized Stimulated Brillouin Scatter) lines are much narrower than Wideband SEE (WSEE) lines and as a result electron temperature calculated using NSEE line offset has potential to be more accurate. This technique may therefore complement the electron temperature calculation using ISR spectra. Strength of IA MSBS lines correlate with EHIL in the MUIR spectrum during HF pump frequency variation near 3fce. Therefore, NSEE could be used for similar diagnostic information, particularly temperature assessment during heating. More detailed physics-based modeling of such SEE is expected to provide further diagnostic information/capabilities. This work has demonstrated the tremendous future potential of Narrowband SEE (NSEE) as a powerful untapped ionospheric diagnostic which could provide complementary measurements for locations that ISR facilities are not available or as a complementary measurement for the waves and irregularities that cannot be observed by ISR.

Risk perception of heat waves and its spatial variation in Nanjing, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Lei; Yang, Qianqi; Li, Jie; Chen, Jin; He, Ruoying; Zhang, Can; Chen, Kai; Dong, Steven Guanpeng; Liu, Yang

2018-05-01

The intensity, frequency, and duration of heat waves are expected to increase with climate change. In this study, we found a significant difference of public perceived effects of heat waves and trust in government among urban, suburban, and rural districts. Rural residents had a significant higher effect perception than urbanites and also showed stronger willingness to have medical insurance or regular physical examinations. Meanwhile, suburban residents had the lowest trust perception in government among these three districts, which may be due to suburban districts' unique social structure and complex social issues. Besides, we assessed the relationship between the factor effect and demographic variables. The results showed that urban respondents' effect perception was significantly related to heat wave experiences. Suburban respondents' effect perception was significantly related to age, income, and heat wave experiences. And rural respondents' effect perception was significantly related to income and chronic diseases. Based on our results, much more attention needs to be paid to rural districts. The government should strengthen infrastructure construction such as cooling centers, improve emergency response plans and mechanisms, and increase reserves of emergency supplies in rural districts. Also, targeted risk communication is of the equal importance to aid the policy-makers improving the relationship with the public and regaining the public's trust and support.

Optical Emissions Enhanced by O and X Mode Ionosphere HF Pumping: Similarities and Differences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sergienko, T.; Brandstrom, U.; Gustavsson, B.; Blagoveshchenskaya, N. F.

2013-12-01

Strong enhancement of the optical emissions with excitation thresholds from 1.96 eV up to 18.75 eV have been observed during experiments of ionosphere modification by high power HF radio waves since the early 1970s. Up to now all these emissions were observed only during the interaction of the O-mode HF radio wave with the ionospheric plasma. On 19 October 2012, during an EISCAT heating experiment, strong optical emissions were observed by ALIS, in first time, for X-mode ionosphere pumping. While for O-mode heating the optical emission enhancements can be explained by the ionospheric electron heating and acceleration due to the nonlinear interaction of the powerful radio wave with ionosphere, the mechanism responsible for the emission enhancements during the X-mode heating is not known. In the experiment optical emissions have been measured in three different wave-lengths simultaneously from four ALIS stations. The emission intensity ratios as well as the characteristics of the spatial distribution of the enhanced optical emissions provide important information on the possible mechanisms of the radio wave - ionosphere interaction. In this report we present the results of comparison of the characteristics of the optical emissions caused by X-mode heating with the characteristics of the emissions enhanced by O-mode measured during same experiment.

Risk perception of heat waves and its spatial variation in Nanjing, China.

PubMed

Huang, Lei; Yang, Qianqi; Li, Jie; Chen, Jin; He, Ruoying; Zhang, Can; Chen, Kai; Dong, Steven Guanpeng; Liu, Yang

2018-05-01

The intensity, frequency, and duration of heat waves are expected to increase with climate change. In this study, we found a significant difference of public perceived effects of heat waves and trust in government among urban, suburban, and rural districts. Rural residents had a significant higher effect perception than urbanites and also showed stronger willingness to have medical insurance or regular physical examinations. Meanwhile, suburban residents had the lowest trust perception in government among these three districts, which may be due to suburban districts' unique social structure and complex social issues. Besides, we assessed the relationship between the factor effect and demographic variables. The results showed that urban respondents' effect perception was significantly related to heat wave experiences. Suburban respondents' effect perception was significantly related to age, income, and heat wave experiences. And rural respondents' effect perception was significantly related to income and chronic diseases. Based on our results, much more attention needs to be paid to rural districts. The government should strengthen infrastructure construction such as cooling centers, improve emergency response plans and mechanisms, and increase reserves of emergency supplies in rural districts. Also, targeted risk communication is of the equal importance to aid the policy-makers improving the relationship with the public and regaining the public's trust and support.

Risk perception of heat waves and its spatial variation in Nanjing, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Lei; Yang, Qianqi; Li, Jie; Chen, Jin; He, Ruoying; Zhang, Can; Chen, Kai; Dong, Steven Guanpeng; Liu, Yang

2017-12-01

The intensity, frequency, and duration of heat waves are expected to increase with climate change. In this study, we found a significant difference of public perceived effects of heat waves and trust in government among urban, suburban, and rural districts. Rural residents had a significant higher effect perception than urbanites and also showed stronger willingness to have medical insurance or regular physical examinations. Meanwhile, suburban residents had the lowest trust perception in government among these three districts, which may be due to suburban districts' unique social structure and complex social issues. Besides, we assessed the relationship between the factor effect and demographic variables. The results showed that urban respondents' effect perception was significantly related to heat wave experiences. Suburban respondents' effect perception was significantly related to age, income, and heat wave experiences. And rural respondents' effect perception was significantly related to income and chronic diseases. Based on our results, much more attention needs to be paid to rural districts. The government should strengthen infrastructure construction such as cooling centers, improve emergency response plans and mechanisms, and increase reserves of emergency supplies in rural districts. Also, targeted risk communication is of the equal importance to aid the policy-makers improving the relationship with the public and regaining the public's trust and support.

Temperature and heat wave trends in northwest Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martínez-Austria, Polioptro F.; Bandala, Erick R.; Patiño-Gómez, Carlos

2016-02-01

Increase in temperature extremes is one of the main expected impacts of climate change, as well as one of the first signs of its occurrence. Nevertheless, results emerging from General Circulation Models, while sufficient for large scales, are not enough for forecasting local trends and, hence, the IPCC has called for local studies based on on-site data. Indeed, it is expected that climate extremes will be detected much earlier than changes in climate averages. Heat waves are among the most important and least studied climate extremes, however its occurrence has been only barely studied and even its very definition remains controversial. This paper discusses the observed changes in temperature trends and heat waves in Northwestern Mexico, one of the most vulnerable regions of the country. The climate records in two locations of the region are analyzed, including one of the cities with extreme climate in Mexico, Mexicali City in the state of Baja California and the Yaqui River basin at Sonora State using three different methodologies. Results showed clear trends on temperature increase and occurrence of heat waves in both of the study zones using the three methodologies proposed. As result, some policy making suggestion are included in order to increase the adaptability of the studied regions to climate change, particularly related with heat wave occurrence.

Relationship Between Alfvenic Fluctuations and Heavy Ion Heating in the Cusp at 1 Re

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Coffey, Victoria; Chandler, Michael; Singh, Nagendra

2008-01-01

We look at the effect of heavy ion heating from their coupling with observed broadband (BB-ELF) emissions. These wave fluctuations are common to many regions of the ionosphere and magnetosphere and have been described as spatial turbulence of dispersive Alfven waves (DAW) with short perpendicular wavelengths. With Polar passing through the cusp at 1 Re in the Spring of 1996, we show the correlation of their wave power with mass-resolved O+ derived heating rates. This relationship lead to the study of the coupling of the thermal O+ ions and these bursty electric fields. We demonstrate the role of these measurements in the suggestion of DAW and stochastic ion heating and the observed density cavity characteristics.

Large scale atmospheric drivers for heat waves in the Mediterranean Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pasqui, Massimiliano; Di Giuseppe, Edmondo

2016-04-01

West African Heat Low (WAHL) is one of the prominent dynamical components of the West African Monsoon (WAM) system playing a key role in the summer atmospheric circulation over Mediterranean as well. It is characterized by a semi-permanent low pressure system generated and maintained by surface heating over the western part of Saharan desert in summer, and a divergent flux pattern above the atmospheric boundary level. In this study we analyse the formation and occurrence of heat waves in the Mediterranean Basin connected to the WAHL regimes in combination with the subtropical anticyclone regimes over North Atlantic basin (the "Azore High") . In this work, heat waves are defined when more than 6 consecutive days with a daily temperature above 90th percentile corresponding threshold are observed. We use 1971-2000 as reference period for thresholds calculation, based on two datasets: a) the European Climate Assessment & Dataset (ECAD/E-OBS) data; b) the Berkeley-Earth Project data; the analysis period covers March-September from 1951 to 2015 and 1951 to 2011 respectively. The WAHL index is calculated following the method proposed by Chauvin et al. (2010) and based on NCAR/NCEP Reanalysis dataset, while the Azore High pressure system regimes variability are computed as in Davis et al. (1997). We show that a statistical relationship between heat waves in Western and Central Mediterranean Basin and WAHL mechanism exists, being the latter a prominent causal factor. The relationships and causal connections between WAHL and Azores High atmospheric systems are also analysed to highlight potential implications for heat waves outlooks and early warning systems.

The 2011 heat wave in Greater Houston: Effects of land use on temperature.

PubMed

Zhou, Weihe; Ji, Shuang; Chen, Tsun-Hsuan; Hou, Yi; Zhang, Kai

2014-11-01

Effects of land use on temperatures during severe heat waves have been rarely studied. This paper examines land use-temperature associations during the 2011 heat wave in Greater Houston. We obtained high resolution of satellite-derived land use data from the US National Land Cover Database, and temperature observations at 138 weather stations from Weather Underground, Inc (WU) during the August of 2011, which was the hottest month in Houston since 1889. Land use regression and quantile regression methods were applied to the monthly averages of daily maximum/mean/minimum temperatures and 114 land use-related predictors. Although selected variables vary with temperature metric, distance to the coastline consistently appears among all models. Other variables are generally related to high developed intensity, open water or wetlands. In addition, our quantile regression analysis shows that distance to the coastline and high developed intensity areas have larger impacts on daily average temperatures at higher quantiles, and open water area has greater impacts on daily minimum temperatures at lower quantiles. By utilizing both land use regression and quantile regression on a recent heat wave in one of the largest US metropolitan areas, this paper provides a new perspective on the impacts of land use on temperatures. Our models can provide estimates of heat exposures for epidemiological studies, and our findings can be combined with demographic variables, air conditioning and relevant diseases information to identify 'hot spots' of population vulnerability for public health interventions to reduce heat-related health effects during heat waves. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Prediction of a thermodynamic wave train from the monsoon to the Arctic following extreme rainfall events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krishnamurti, T. N.; Kumar, Vinay

2017-04-01

This study addresses numerical prediction of atmospheric wave trains that provide a monsoonal link to the Arctic ice melt. The monsoonal link is one of several ways that heat is conveyed to the Arctic region. This study follows a detailed observational study on thermodynamic wave trains that are initiated by extreme rain events of the northern summer south Asian monsoon. These wave trains carry large values of heat content anomalies, heat transports and convergence of flux of heat. These features seem to be important candidates for the rapid melt scenario. This present study addresses numerical simulation of the extreme rains, over India and Pakistan, and the generation of thermodynamic wave trains, simulations of large heat content anomalies, heat transports along pathways and heat flux convergences, potential vorticity and the diabatic generation of potential vorticity. We compare model based simulation of many features such as precipitation, divergence and the divergent wind with those evaluated from the reanalysis fields. We have also examined the snow and ice cover data sets during and after these events. This modeling study supports our recent observational findings on the monsoonal link to the rapid Arctic ice melt of the Canadian Arctic. This numerical modeling suggests ways to interpret some recent episodes of rapid ice melts that may require a well-coordinated field experiment among atmosphere, ocean, ice and snow cover scientists. Such a well-coordinated study would sharpen our understanding of this one component of the ice melt, i.e. the monsoonal link, which appears to be fairly robust.

Wave speed propagation measurements on highly attenuative heated materials

DOE PAGES

Moore, David G.; Ober, Curtis C.; Rodacy, Phil J.; ...

2015-09-19

Ultrasonic wave propagation decreases as a material is heated. Two factors that can characterize material properties are changes in wave speed and energy loss from interactions within the media. Relatively small variations in velocity and attenuation can detect significant differences in microstructures. This paper discusses an overview of experimental techniques that document the changes within a highly attenuative material as it is either being heated or cooled from 25°C to 90°C. The experimental set-up utilizes ultrasonic probes in a through-transmission configuration. The waveforms are recorded and analyzed during thermal experiments. To complement the ultrasonic data, a Discontinuous-Galerkin Model (DGM) wasmore » also created which uses unstructured meshes and documents how waves travel in these anisotropic media. This numerical method solves particle motion travel using partial differential equations and outputs a wave trace per unit time. As a result, both experimental and analytical data are compared and presented.« less

Future Reef Growth Can Mitigate Physical Impacts of Sea-Level Rise on Atoll Islands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beetham, Edward; Kench, Paul S.; Popinet, Stéphane

2017-10-01

We present new detail on how future sea-level rise (SLR) will modify nonlinear wave transformation processes, shoreline wave energy, and wave driven flooding on atoll islands. Frequent and destructive wave inundation is a primary climate-change hazard that may render atoll islands uninhabitable in the near future. However, limited research has examined the physical vulnerability of atoll islands to future SLR and sparse information are available to implement process-based coastal management on coral reef environments. We utilize a field-verified numerical model capable of resolving all nonlinear wave transformation processes to simulate how future SLR will modify wave dissipation and overtopping on Funafuti Atoll, Tuvalu, accounting for static and accretionary reef adjustment morphologies. Results show that future SLR coupled with a static reef morphology will not only increase shoreline wave energy and overtopping but will fundamentally alter the spectral composition of shoreline energy by decreasing the contemporary influence of low-frequency infragravity waves. "Business-as-usual" emissions (RCP 8.5) will result in annual wave overtopping on Funafuti Atoll by 2030, with overtopping at high tide under mean wave conditions occurring from 2090. Comparatively, vertical reef accretion in response to SLR will prevent any significant increase in shoreline wave energy and mitigate wave driven flooding volume by 72%. Our results provide the first quantitative assessment of how effective future reef accretion can be at mitigating SLR-associated flooding on atoll islands and endorse active reef conservation and restoration for future coastal protection.

Solar Jets as Sources of Outflows, Heating and Waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nishizuka, N.

2013-05-01

Recent space solar observations of the Sun, such as Hinode and SDO, have revealed that magnetic reconnection is ubiquitous in the solar atmosphere, ranging from small scale reconnection (observed as nanoflares) to large scale one (observed as long duration flares or giant arcades). Especially recent Hinode observations has found various types of tiny chromospheric jets, such as chromospheric anemone jets, penumbral microjets and light bridge jets from sunspot umbra. It was also found that the corona is full of tiny X-ray jets. Often they are seen as helical spinning jets with Alfvenic waves in the corona. Sometimes they are seen as chromospheric jets with slow-mode magnetoacoustic waves and sometimes as unresolved jet-like events at the footpoint of recurrent outflows and waves at the edge of the active region. There is increasing evidence of magnetic reconnection in these tiny jets and its association with waves. The origin of outflows and waves is one of the issues concerning coronal heating and solar wind acceleration. To answer this question, we had a challenge to reproduce solar jets with laboratory plasma experiment and directly measured outflows and waves. As a result, we could find a propagating wave excited by magnetic reconnection, whose energy flux is 10% of the released magnetic energy. That is enough for solar wind acceleration and locally enough for coronal heating, consistent with numerical MHD simulations of solar jets. Here we would discuss recent observations with Hinode, theories and experimental results related to jets and waves by magnetic reconnection, and discuss possible implication to reconnection physics, coronal heating and solar wind acceleration.

Quasi-linear heating and acceleration in bi-Maxwellian plasmas

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hellinger, Petr; Passot, Thierry; Sulem, Pierre-Louis

2013-12-15

Quasi-linear acceleration and heating rates are derived for drifting bi-Maxwellian distribution functions in a general nonrelativistic case for arbitrary wave vectors, propagation angles, and growth/damping rates. The heating rates in a proton-electron plasma due to ion-cyclotron/kinetic Alfvén and mirror waves for a wide range of wavelengths, directions of propagation, and growth or damping rates are explicitly computed.

Full wave simulations of fast wave efficiency and power losses in the scrape-off layer of tokamak plasmas in mid/high harmonic and minority heating regimes

DOE PAGES

Bertelli, N.; Jaeger, E. F.; Hosea, J. C.; ...

2015-12-17

Here, several experiments on different machines and in different fast wave (FW) heating regimes, such as hydrogen minority heating and high harmonic fast waves (HHFW), have found strong interaction between radio-frequency (RF) waves and the scrape-off layer (SOL) region. This paper examines the propagation and the power loss in the SOL by using the full wave code AORSA, in which the edge plasma beyond the last closed flux surface (LCFS) is included in the solution domain and a collisional damping parameter is used as a proxy to represent the real, and most likely nonlinear, damping processes. 2D and 3D AORSAmore » results for the National Spherical Torus eXperiment (NSTX) have shown a strong transition to higher SOL power losses (driven by the RF field) when the FW cut-off is removed from in front of the antenna by increasing the edge density. Here, full wave simulations have been extended for 'conventional' tokamaks with higher aspect ratios, such as the DIII-D, Alcator C-Mod, and EAST devices. DIII-D results in HHFW regime show similar behavior found in NSTX and NSTX-U, consistent with previous DIII-D experimental observations. In contrast, a different behavior has been found for C-Mod and EAST, which operate in the minority heating regime.« less

Fully non-inductive second harmonic electron cyclotron plasma ramp-up in the QUEST spherical tokamak

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Idei, H.; Kariya, T.; Imai, T.; Mishra, K.; Onchi, T.; Watanabe, O.; Zushi, H.; Hanada, K.; Qian, J.; Ejiri, A.; Alam, M. M.; Nakamura, K.; Fujisawa, A.; Nagashima, Y.; Hasegawa, M.; Matsuoka, K.; Fukuyama, A.; Kubo, S.; Shimozuma, T.; Yoshikawa, M.; Sakamoto, M.; Kawasaki, S.; Nakashima, H.; Higashijima, A.; Ide, S.; Maekawa, T.; Takase, Y.; Toi, K.

2017-12-01

Fully non-inductive second (2nd) harmonic electron cyclotron (EC) plasma current ramp-up was demonstrated with a newlly developed 28 GHz system in the QUEST spherical tokamak. A high plasma current of 54 kA was non-inductively ramped up and sustained stably for 0.9 s with a 270 kW 28 GHz wave. A higher plasma current of 66 kA was also non-inductively achieved with a slow ramp-up of the vertical field. We have achieved a significantly higher plasma current than those achieved previously with the 2nd harmonic EC waves. This fully non-inductive 2nd harmonic EC plasma ramp-up method might be useful for future burning plasma devices and fusion reactors, in particular for operations at half magnetic field with the same EC heating equipment.

Photothermal heating and cooling of nanostructures.

PubMed

Crane, Matthew Joseph; Zhou, Xuezhe; Davis, E James; Pauzauskie, Peter

2018-06-11

A vast range of insulating, semiconducting, and metallic nanomaterials have been studied over the past several decades with the aim of understanding how continuous-wave or pulsed laser radiation can influence their chemical functionality and local environment. Many fascinating observations have been made during laser irradiation including, but not limited to, the superheating of solvents, mass-transport-mediated morphology evolution, photodynamic therapy, morphology dependent resonances, and a range of phase transformations. In addition to laser heating, recent experiments have demonstrated the laser cooling of nanoscale materials through the emission of upconverted, anti-Stokes photons by trivalent rare-earth ions. This focus review outlines the analytical modeling of photothermal heat transport with an emphasis on the experimental validation of anti-Stokes laser cooling. This general methodology can be applied to a wide range of photothermal applications, including nanomedicine, photocatalysis, and the synthesis of new materials. The review concludes with an overview of recent advances and future directions for anti-Stokes cooling. © 2018 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Quantification and mapping of urban fluxes under climate change: Application of WRF-SUEWS model to Greater Porto area (Portugal).

PubMed

Rafael, S; Martins, H; Marta-Almeida, M; Sá, E; Coelho, S; Rocha, A; Borrego, C; Lopes, M

2017-05-01

Climate change and the growth of urban populations are two of the main challenges facing Europe today. These issues are linked as climate change results in serious challenges for cities. Recent attention has focused on how urban surface-atmosphere exchanges of heat and water will be affected by climate change and the implications for urban planning and sustainability. In this study energy fluxes for Greater Porto area, Portugal, were estimated and the influence of the projected climate change evaluated. To accomplish this, the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) and the Surface Urban Energy and Water Balance Scheme (SUEWS) were applied for two climatological scenarios: a present (or reference, 1986-2005) scenario and a future scenario (2046-2065), in this case the Representative Concentration Pathway RCP8.5, which reflects the worst set of expectations (with the most onerous impacts). The results show that for the future climate conditions, the incoming shortwave radiation will increase by around 10%, the sensible heat flux around 40% and the net storage heat flux around 35%. In contrast, the latent heat flux will decrease about 20%. The changes in the magnitude of the different fluxes result in an increase of the net all-wave radiation by 15%. The implications of the changes of the energy balance on the meteorological variables are discussed, particularly in terms of temperature and precipitation. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The Heating of Solar Coronal Loops by Alfvén Wave Turbulence

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Van Ballegooijen, A. A.; Asgari-Targhi, M.; Voss, A.

2017-11-01

In this paper we further develop a model for the heating of coronal loops by Alfvén wave turbulence (AWT). The Alfvén waves are assumed to be launched from a collection of kilogauss flux tubes in the photosphere at the two ends of the loop. Using a three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic model for an active-region loop, we investigate how the waves from neighboring flux tubes interact in the chromosphere and corona. For a particular combination of model parameters we find that AWT can produce enough heat to maintain a peak temperature of about 2.5 MK, somewhat lower than the temperatures of 3–4 MKmore » observed in the cores of active regions. The heating rates vary strongly in space and time, but the simulated heating events have durations less than 1 minute and are unlikely to reproduce the observed broad differential emission measure distributions of active regions. The simulated spectral line nonthermal widths are predicted to be about 27 km s{sup −1}, which is high compared to the observed values. Therefore, the present AWT model does not satisfy the observational constraints. An alternative “magnetic braiding” model is considered in which the coronal field lines are subject to slow random footpoint motions, but we find that such long-period motions produce much less heating than the shorter-period waves launched within the flux tubes. We discuss several possibilities for resolving the problem of producing sufficiently hot loops in active regions.« less

Heating and acceleration of solar wind ions by turbulent wave spectrum in inhomogeneous expanding plasma

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ofman, Leon, E-mail: Leon.Ofman@nasa.gov; NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD; Visiting, Department of Geosciences, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv

Near the Sun (< 10R{sub s}) the acceleration, heating, and propagation of the solar wind are likely affected by the background inhomogeneities of the magnetized plasma. The heating and the acceleration of the solar wind ions by turbulent wave spectrum in inhomogeneous plasma is studied using a 2.5D hybrid model. The hybrid model describes the kinetics of the ions, while the electrons are modeled as massless neutralizing fluid in an expanding box approach. Turbulent magnetic fluctuations dominated by power-law frequency spectra, which are evident from in-situ as well as remote sensing measurements, are used in our models. The effects ofmore » background density inhomogeneity across the magnetic field on the resonant ion heating are studied. The effect of super-Alfvénic ion drift on the ion heating is investigated. It is found that the turbulent wave spectrum of initially parallel propagating waves cascades to oblique modes, and leads to enhanced resonant ion heating due to the inhomogeneity. The acceleration of the solar wind ions is achieved by the parametric instability of large amplitude waves in the spectrum, and is also affected by the inhomogeneity. The results of the study provide the ion temperature anisotropy and drift velocity temporal evolution due to relaxation of the instability. The non-Maxwellian velocity distribution functions (VDFs) of the ions are modeled in the inhomogeneous solar wind plasma in the acceleration region close to the Sun.« less

Numerical Study of Hydrothermal Wave Suppression in Thermocapillary Flow Using a Predictive Control Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muldoon, F. H.

2018-04-01

Hydrothermal waves in flows driven by thermocapillary and buoyancy effects are suppressed by applying a predictive control method. Hydrothermal waves arise in the manufacturing of crystals, including the "open boat" crystal growth process, and lead to undesirable impurities in crystals. The open boat process is modeled using the two-dimensional unsteady incompressible Navier-Stokes equations under the Boussinesq approximation and the linear approximation of the surface thermocapillary force. The flow is controlled by a spatially and temporally varying heat flux density through the free surface. The heat flux density is determined by a conjugate gradient optimization algorithm. The gradient of the objective function with respect to the heat flux density is found by solving adjoint equations derived from the Navier-Stokes ones in the Boussinesq approximation. Special attention is given to heat flux density distributions over small free-surface areas and to the maximum admissible heat flux density.

An experimental heat wave changes immune defense and life history traits in a freshwater snail.

PubMed

Leicht, Katja; Jokela, Jukka; Seppälä, Otto

2013-12-01

The predicted increase in frequency and severity of heat waves due to climate change is expected to alter disease dynamics by reducing hosts' ability to resist infections. This could take place via two different mechanisms: (1) through general reduction in hosts' performance under harsh environmental conditions and/or (2) through altered resource allocation that reduces expression of defense traits in order to maintain other traits. We tested these alternative hypotheses by measuring the effect of an experimental heat wave (25 vs. 15°C) on the constitutive level of immune defense (hemocyte concentration, phenoloxidase [PO]-like activity, antibacterial activity of hemolymph), and life history traits (growth and number of oviposited eggs) of the great pond snail Lymnaea stagnalis. We also manipulated the exposure time to high temperature (1, 3, 5, 7, 9, or 11 days). We found that if the exposure to high temperature lasted <1 week, immune function was not affected. However, when the exposure lasted longer than that, the level of snails' immune function (hemocyte concentration and PO-like activity) was reduced. Snails' growth and reproduction increased within the first week of exposure to high temperature. However, longer exposures did not lead to a further increase in cumulative reproductive output. Our results show that short experimental heat waves do not alter immune function but lead to plastic responses that increase snails' growth and reproduction. Thus, although the relative expression of traits changes, short experimental heat waves do not impair snails' defenses. Negative effects on performance get pronounced when the heat waves are prolonged suggesting that high performance cannot be maintained over long time periods. This ultimately reduces the levels of defense traits.

Do Heat Waves have an Impact on Terrestrial Water Storage?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brena-Naranjo, A.; Teuling, R.; Pedrozo-Acuña, A.

2014-12-01

Recent works have investigated the impact of heat waves on the surface energy and carbon balance. However, less attention has been given to the impacts on terrestrial hydrology. During the summer of 2010, the occurrence of an exceptional heat wave affected severely the Northern Hemisphere. The extension (more than 2 million km2) and severity of this extreme event caused substantial ecosystem damage (more than 1 million ha of forest fires), economic and human losses (~500 billion USD and more than 17 million of indirect deaths, respectively). This work investigates for the first time the impacts of the 2010 summer heat wave on terrestrial water storage. Our study area comprises three different regions where air temperature records were established or almost established during the summer: Western Russia, the Middle East and Eastern Sahel. Anomalies of terrestrial water storage derived from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) were used to infer water storage deficits during the 2003-2013 period. Our analysis shows that Russia experienced the most severe water storage decline, followed by the Middle East, whereas Eastern Sahel was not significantly affected. The impact of the heat wave was spatially uniform in Russia but highly variable in the Middle East, with the Northern part substantially more affected than the Southern region. Lag times between maxima air temperatures and lower water storage deficits for Russia and the Middle East were approximately two and seven months, respectively. The results suggest that the response of terrestrial water storage to heat waves is stronger in energy-limited environments than in water-limited regions. Such differences in the magnitude and timing between meteorological and hydrological extremes can be explained by the propagation time between atmospheric water demand and natural or anthropogenic sources of water storage.

Forced Gravity Waves and the Tropospheric Response to Convection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Halliday, O. J.; Griffiths, S. D.; Parker, D. J.; Stirling, A.

2017-12-01

It has been known for some time that gravity waves facilitate atmospheric adjustment to convective heating. Further, convectively forced gravity waves condition the neighboring atmosphere for the initiation and / or suppression of convection. Despite this, the radiation of gravity waves in macro-scale models (which are typically forced at the grid-scale, by existing parameterization schemes) is not well understood. We present here theoretical and numerical work directed toward improving our understanding of convectively forced gravity wave effects at the mesoscale. Using the linear hydrostatic equations of motion for an incompressible (but non-Boussinesq) fluid with vertically varying buoyancy frequency, we find a radiating solution to prescribed sensible heating. We then interrogate the spatial and temporal sensitivity of the vertical velocity and potential temperature response to different heating functions, considering the remote and near-field forced response both to steady and pulsed heating. We find that the meso-scale tropospheric response to convection is significantly dependent on the upward radiation characteristics of the gravity waves, which are in turn dependent upon the temporal and spatial structure of the source, and stratification of the domain. Moving from a trapped to upwardly-radiating solution there is a 50% reduction in tropospherically averaged vertical velocity, but significant perturbations persist for up to 4 hours in the far-field. We find the tropospheric adjustment to be sensitive to the horizontal length scale which characterizes the heating, observing a 20% reduction in vertical velocity when comparing the response from a 10 km to a 100 km heat source. We assess the implications for parameterization of convection in coarse-grained models in the light of these findings. We show that an idealized `full-physics' nonlinear simulation of deep convection in the UK Met Office Unified Model is qualitatively described by the linear solution: departures are quantified and explored.

Cause-specific risk of hospital admission related to extreme heat in older adults.

PubMed

Bobb, Jennifer F; Obermeyer, Ziad; Wang, Yun; Dominici, Francesca

Heat exposure is known to have a complex set of physiological effects on multiple organ systems, but current understanding of the health effects is mostly based on studies investigating a small number of prespecified health outcomes such as cardiovascular and respiratory diseases. To identify possible causes of hospital admissions during extreme heat events and to estimate their risks using historical data. Matched analysis of time series data describing daily hospital admissions of Medicare enrollees (23.7 million fee-for-service beneficiaries [aged ≥65 years] per year; 85% of all Medicare enrollees) for the period 1999 to 2010 in 1943 counties in the United States with at least 5 summers of near-complete (>95%) daily temperature data. Heat wave periods, defined as 2 or more consecutive days with temperatures exceeding the 99th percentile of county-specific daily temperatures, matched to non-heat wave periods by county and week. Daily cause-specific hospitalization rates by principal discharge diagnosis codes, grouped into 283 disease categories using a validated approach. Risks of hospitalization for fluid and electrolyte disorders, renal failure, urinary tract infection, septicemia, and heat stroke were statistically significantly higher on heat wave days relative to matched non-heat wave days, but risk of hospitalization for congestive heart failure was lower (P < .05). Relative risks for these disease groups were 1.18 (95% CI, 1.12-1.25) for fluid and electrolyte disorders, 1.14 (95% CI, 1.06-1.23) for renal failure, 1.10 (95% CI, 1.04-1.16) for urinary tract infections, 1.06 (95% CI, 1.00-1.11) for septicemia, and 2.54 (95% CI, 2.14-3.01) for heat stroke. Absolute risk differences were 0.34 (95% CI, 0.22-0.46) excess admissions per 100,000 individuals at risk for fluid and electrolyte disorders, 0.25 (95% CI, 0.12-0.39) for renal failure, 0.24 (95% CI, 0.09-0.39) for urinary tract infections, 0.21 (95% CI, 0.01-0.41) for septicemia, and 0.16 (95% CI, 0.10-0.22) for heat stroke. For fluid and electrolyte disorders and heat stroke, the risk of hospitalization increased during more intense and longer-lasting heat wave periods (P < .05). Risks were generally highest on the heat wave day but remained elevated for up to 5 subsequent days. Among older adults, periods of extreme heat were associated with increased risk of hospitalization for fluid and electrolyte disorders, renal failure, urinary tract infection, septicemia, and heat stroke. However, the absolute risk increase was small and of uncertain clinical importance.

Cause-Specific Risk of Hospital Admission Related to Extreme Heat in Older Adults

PubMed Central

Bobb, Jennifer F.; Obermeyer, Ziad; Wang, Yun; Dominici, Francesca

2015-01-01

IMPORTANCE Heat exposure is known to have a complex set of physiological effects on multiple organ systems, but current understanding of the health effects is mostly based on studies investigating a small number of prespecified health outcomes such as cardiovascular and respiratory diseases. OBJECTIVES To identify possible causes of hospital admissions during extreme heat events and to estimate their risks using historical data. DESIGN, SETTING, AND POPULATION Matched analysis of time series data describing daily hospital admissions of Medicare enrollees (23.7 million fee-for-service beneficiaries [aged ≥65 years] per year; 85% of all Medicare enrollees) for the period 1999 to 2010 in 1943 counties in the United States with at least 5 summers of near-complete (>95%) daily temperature data. EXPOSURES Heat wave periods, defined as 2 or more consecutive days with temperatures exceeding the 99th percentile of county-specific daily temperatures, matched to non–heat wave periods by county and week. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Daily cause-specific hospitalization rates by principal discharge diagnosis codes, grouped into 283 disease categories using a validated approach. RESULTS Risks of hospitalization for fluid and electrolyte disorders, renal failure, urinary tract infection, septicemia, and heat stroke were statistically significantly higher on heat wave days relative to matched non–heat wave days, but risk of hospitalization for congestive heart failure was lower (P < .05). Relative risks for these disease groups were 1.18 (95% CI, 1.12–1.25) for fluid and electrolyte disorders, 1.14 (95% CI, 1.06–1.23) for renal failure, 1.10 (95% CI, 1.04–1.16) for urinary tract infections, 1.06 (95% CI, 1.00–1.11) for septicemia, and 2.54 (95% CI, 2.14–3.01) for heat stroke. Absolute risk differences were 0.34 (95% CI, 0.22–0.46) excess admissions per 100 000 individuals at risk for fluid and electrolyte disorders, 0.25 (95% CI, 0.12–0.39) for renal failure, 0.24 (95% CI, 0.09–0.39) for urinary tract infections, 0.21 (95% CI, 0.01–0.41) for septicemia, and 0.16 (95% CI, 0.10–0.22) for heat stroke. For fluid and electrolyte disorders and heat stroke, the risk of hospitalization increased during more intense and longer-lasting heat wave periods (P < .05). Risks were generally highest on the heat wave day but remained elevated for up to 5 subsequent days. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE Among older adults, periods of extreme heat were associated with increased risk of hospitalization for fluid and electrolyte disorders, renal failure, urinary tract infection, septicemia, and heat stroke. However, the absolute risk increase was small and of uncertain clinical importance. PMID:25536257

Gravity Waves Generated by Convection: A New Idealized Model Tool and Direct Validation with Satellite Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alexander, M. Joan; Stephan, Claudia

2015-04-01

In climate models, gravity waves remain too poorly resolved to be directly modelled. Instead, simplified parameterizations are used to include gravity wave effects on model winds. A few climate models link some of the parameterized waves to convective sources, providing a mechanism for feedback between changes in convection and gravity wave-driven changes in circulation in the tropics and above high-latitude storms. These convective wave parameterizations are based on limited case studies with cloud-resolving models, but they are poorly constrained by observational validation, and tuning parameters have large uncertainties. Our new work distills results from complex, full-physics cloud-resolving model studies to essential variables for gravity wave generation. We use the Weather Research Forecast (WRF) model to study relationships between precipitation, latent heating/cooling and other cloud properties to the spectrum of gravity wave momentum flux above midlatitude storm systems. Results show the gravity wave spectrum is surprisingly insensitive to the representation of microphysics in WRF. This is good news for use of these models for gravity wave parameterization development since microphysical properties are a key uncertainty. We further use the full-physics cloud-resolving model as a tool to directly link observed precipitation variability to gravity wave generation. We show that waves in an idealized model forced with radar-observed precipitation can quantitatively reproduce instantaneous satellite-observed features of the gravity wave field above storms, which is a powerful validation of our understanding of waves generated by convection. The idealized model directly links observations of surface precipitation to observed waves in the stratosphere, and the simplicity of the model permits deep/large-area domains for studies of wave-mean flow interactions. This unique validated model tool permits quantitative studies of gravity wave driving of regional circulation and provides a new method for future development of realistic convective gravity wave parameterizations.

New York City Impact on Regional Heat Wave

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ortiz, Luis E.; Schoonen, Martin

Abstract Extreme heat events are projected to increase in magnitude and frequency throughout this century due to increasing global temperatures, making it critically important to acquire improved understanding of their genesis and interactions with large cities. This study presents an application of the factor separation method to assess combined impacts of a synoptic scale heat wave, urban land cover, and urban energy and momentum fluxes on temperatures and winds over New York City via use of high resolution simulations (1 km grid spacing) with an urbanized WRF model. Results showed that, while the heat wave had the largest contribution tomore » temperatures (> 8°C), urban surface factors matched it in highly urbanized areas. Surface factors matched this in highly urbanized areas during night and early morning hours, with contributions up to 5°C, when calm land breeze conditions result in a strong urban heat island. Positive interactions between all factors during morning and nighttime indicate urban heat island amplification of up to 4°C during the heat wave. Midtown Manhattan vertical cross-sections, where urban canopies are most dense, showed a change in the sign (from positive to negative) of the contribution of the urban fluxes between night and day below 500 m, possibly due to radiation blocking and increased thermal storage by buildings as well as frictional effects opposing the incoming warm air.« less

New York City Impact on Regional Heat Wave

DOE PAGES

Ortiz, Luis E.; Schoonen, Martin

2018-04-01

Abstract Extreme heat events are projected to increase in magnitude and frequency throughout this century due to increasing global temperatures, making it critically important to acquire improved understanding of their genesis and interactions with large cities. This study presents an application of the factor separation method to assess combined impacts of a synoptic scale heat wave, urban land cover, and urban energy and momentum fluxes on temperatures and winds over New York City via use of high resolution simulations (1 km grid spacing) with an urbanized WRF model. Results showed that, while the heat wave had the largest contribution tomore » temperatures (> 8°C), urban surface factors matched it in highly urbanized areas. Surface factors matched this in highly urbanized areas during night and early morning hours, with contributions up to 5°C, when calm land breeze conditions result in a strong urban heat island. Positive interactions between all factors during morning and nighttime indicate urban heat island amplification of up to 4°C during the heat wave. Midtown Manhattan vertical cross-sections, where urban canopies are most dense, showed a change in the sign (from positive to negative) of the contribution of the urban fluxes between night and day below 500 m, possibly due to radiation blocking and increased thermal storage by buildings as well as frictional effects opposing the incoming warm air.« less

Experimental study of pressure and heating rate on a swept cylindrical leading edge resulting from swept shock wave interference. M.S. Thesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Glass, Christopher E.

1989-01-01

The effects of cylindrical leading edge sweep on surface pressure and heat transfer rate for swept shock wave interference were investigated. Experimental tests were conducted in the Calspan 48-inch Hypersonic Shock Tunnel at a nominal Mach number of 8, nominal unit Reynolds number of 1.5 x 10 to the 6th power per foot, leading edge and incident shock generator sweep angles of 0, 15, and 30 deg, and incident shock generator angle-of-attack fixed at 12.5 deg. Detailed surface pressure and heat transfer rate on the cylindircal leading edge of a swept shock wave interference model were measured at the region of the maximum surface pressure and heat transfer rate. Results show that pressure and heat transfer rate on the cylindrical leading edge of the shock wave interference model were reduced as the sweep was increased over the range of tested parameters. Peak surface pressure and heat transfer rate on the cylinder were about 10 and 30 times the undisturbed flow stagnation point value, respectively, for the 0 deg sweep test. A comparison of the 15 and 30 deg swept results with the 0 deg swept results showed that peak pressure was reduced about 13 percent and 44 percent, respectively, and peak heat transfer rate was reduced about 7 percent and 27 percent, respectively.

Impact of simulated heat waves on soybean physiology and yield

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

With increases in mean global temperatures and associated climate change, extreme temperature events are predicted to increase in both intensity and frequency. Despite the clearly documented negative public health impacts of heat waves, the impact on physiology and yields of key agricultural species...

The extreme heat wave in Athens in July 1987 from the point of view of human biometeorology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matzarakis, Andreas; Mayer, Helmut

At the end of July 1987 a heat wave came over Greece and had as a consequence an increase in the mortality to double the normal values. Predicted mean vote ( PMV), physiologically equivalent temperature ( PET), and for comparison discomfort index ( DI) as thermal indices as well as core temperature, mean skin temperature, and skin wetness as body parameters are calculated for that period based on meteorological data of the Meteorological Institute of the National Observatory in the centre of Athens and of the suburban station New Philadelphia of the Hellenic National Weather Service. The results for the thermal indices and the body parameters indicate a very high thermal stress on people. In addition, the air quality stress index ( AQSI) has been used for characterizing air quality conditions in Athens during the heat wave. The results Combined with the thermal effects of the heat wave the stress on humans due to environmental conditions has been very injurious to health.

Extreme heat in India and anthropogenic climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan; Philip, Sjoukje; Kew, Sarah; van Weele, Michiel; Uhe, Peter; Otto, Friederike; Singh, Roop; Pai, Indrani; Cullen, Heidi; AchutaRao, Krishna

2018-01-01

On 19 May 2016 the afternoon temperature reached 51.0 °C in Phalodi in the northwest of India - a new record for the highest observed maximum temperature in India. The previous year, a widely reported very lethal heat wave occurred in the southeast, in Andhra Pradesh and Telangana, killing thousands of people. In both cases it was widely assumed that the probability and severity of heat waves in India are increasing due to global warming, as they do in other parts of the world. However, we do not find positive trends in the highest maximum temperature of the year in most of India since the 1970s (except spurious trends due to missing data). Decadal variability cannot explain this, but both increased air pollution with aerosols blocking sunlight and increased irrigation leading to evaporative cooling have counteracted the effect of greenhouse gases up to now. Current climate models do not represent these processes well and hence cannot be used to attribute heat waves in this area. The health effects of heat are often described better by a combination of temperature and humidity, such as a heat index or wet bulb temperature. Due to the increase in humidity from irrigation and higher sea surface temperatures (SSTs), these indices have increased over the last decades even when extreme temperatures have not. The extreme air pollution also exacerbates the health impacts of heat. From these factors it follows that, from a health impact point of view, the severity of heat waves has increased in India. For the next decades we expect the trend due to global warming to continue but the surface cooling effect of aerosols to diminish as air quality controls are implemented. The expansion of irrigation will likely continue, though at a slower pace, mitigating this trend somewhat. Humidity will probably continue to rise. The combination will result in a strong rise in the temperature of heat waves. The high humidity will make health effects worse, whereas decreased air pollution would decrease the impacts.

Exposure of trees to drought-induced die-off is defined by a common climatic threshold across different vegetation types

PubMed Central

Mitchell, Patrick J; O'Grady, Anthony P; Hayes, Keith R; Pinkard, Elizabeth A

2014-01-01

Increases in drought and temperature stress in forest and woodland ecosystems are thought to be responsible for the rise in episodic mortality events observed globally. However, key climatic drivers common to mortality events and the impacts of future extreme droughts on tree survival have not been evaluated. Here, we characterize climatic drivers associated with documented tree die-off events across Australia using standardized climatic indices to represent the key dimensions of drought stress for a range of vegetation types. We identify a common probabilistic threshold associated with an increased risk of die-off across all the sites that we examined. We show that observed die-off events occur when water deficits and maximum temperatures are high and exist outside 98% of the observed range in drought intensity; this threshold was evident at all sites regardless of vegetation type and climate. The observed die-off events also coincided with at least one heat wave (three consecutive days above the 90th percentile for maximum temperature), emphasizing a pivotal role of heat stress in amplifying tree die-off and mortality processes. The joint drought intensity and maximum temperature distributions were modeled for each site to describe the co-occurrence of both hot and dry conditions and evaluate future shifts in climatic thresholds associated with the die-off events. Under a relatively dry and moderate warming scenario, the frequency of droughts capable of inducing significant tree die-off across Australia could increase from 1 in 24 years to 1 in 15 years by 2050, accompanied by a doubling in the occurrence of associated heat waves. By defining commonalities in drought conditions capable of inducing tree die-off, we show a strong interactive effect of water and high temperature stress and provide a consistent approach for assessing changes in the exposure of ecosystems to extreme drought events. PMID:24772285

Radiotomographic imaging and GNSS remote sensing of the midlatitude ionosphere modified by powerful HF radiowaves.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kunitsyn, V.; Andreeva, E. S.; Padokhin, A. M.; Vorontsov, A.; Frolov, V. L.; Komrakov, G.; Bernhardt, P. A.; Siefring, C. L.

2014-12-01

We present the results of the radiotomographic imaging and GNSS remote sensing of the artificial ionospheric disturbances obtained in the recent experiments on the modification of the midlatitude ionosphere by powerful HF radiowaves carried out at the Sura heating facility. The experiments were conducted using both O- and X- mode radiowaves, in daytime and nighttime conditions with various schemes of the radiation of the heating wave. Radio transmissions from the low- (Parus, e-POP on CASSIOPE) and high-orbital (GPS/GLONASS) navigational satellites received at the mobile network of receiving sites were used for the remote sensing of the heated area of the ionosphere. We study the variations in TEC caused by HF heating showing that the GNSS TEC spectra often contain frequency components corresponding to the modulation periods of the ERP of the heating wave. The manifestations of the heating-induced variations in TEC are most prominent in the area of magnetic zenith of the pumping wave. In this work we also present the radiotomographic reconstructions (including first time e-POP-SURA reconstructions) of the spatial structure of the disturbed area of the ionosphere corresponding to the directivity pattern of the heater as well as the spatial structure of the wave- like disturbances, which are possibly heating-induced AGWs, diverging from the heated area of the ionosphere. The spatial period of observed disturbances is 200-250 km and they are easily traced up to a distance of 700-800 km from the heated region, which is in good agreement with the modeling results.

A Cross-Sectional Study of Heat Wave-Related Knowledge, Attitude, and Practice among the Public in the Licheng District of Jinan City, China

PubMed Central

Li, Jing; Xu, Xin; Ding, Guoyong; Zhao, Yun; Zhao, Ruixia; Xue, Fuzhong; Li, Jing; Gao, Jinghong; Yang, Jun; Jiang, Baofa; Liu, Qiyong

2016-01-01

Knowledge, attitude, and practice (KAP) are three key components for reducing the adverse health impacts of heat waves. However, research in eastern China regarding this is scarce. The present study aimed to evaluate the heat wave-related KAP of a population in Licheng in northeast China. This cross-sectional study included 2241 participants. Data regarding demographic characteristics, KAP, and heat illnesses were collected using a structured questionnaire. Univariate analysis and unconditional logistic regression models were used to analyze the data. Most residents had high KAP scores, with a mean score of 12.23 (standard deviation = 2.23) on a 17-point scale. Urban women and participants aged 35–44 years had relatively high total scores, and those with high education levels had the highest total score. There was an increased risk of heat-related illness among those with knowledge scores of 3–5 on an 8-point scale with mean score of 5.40 (standard deviation = 1.45). Having a positive attitude toward sunstroke prevention and engaging in more preventive practices to avoid heat exposure had a protective interaction effect on reducing the prevalence of heat-related illnesses. Although the KAP scores were relatively high, knowledge and practice were lacking to some extent. Therefore, governments should further develop risk-awareness strategies that increase awareness and knowledge regarding the adverse health impact of heat and help in planning response strategies to improve the ability of individuals to cope with heat waves. PMID:27367715

A numerical model of gravity wave breaking and stress in the mesosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schoeberl, M. R.; Strobel, D. F.; Apruzese, J. P.

1983-01-01

The goal of the study is to calculate numerically the deceleration and heating caused by breaking gravity waves. The effect of the radiative dissipation of the wave is included as vertical-wavelength-dependent Newtonian cooling. The parameterization for zonal deceleration is extended by breaking gravity waves (Lindzen, 1981) to include the turbulent diffusion of heat and momentum. After describing the numerical model, the numerical results are presented and compared with the parameterizations in a noninteractive model of the mean zonal wind. Attention is then given to the transport of constituents by gravity waves and the attendant turbulent zone. It is noted that if gravity wave breaking were not an intermittent process, gravity wave stresses would produce an adiabatic mesosphere with a zonal mean velocity close to the phase speed of the breaking wave.

Experimental Investigation of Turbojet Thrust Augmentation Using an Ejector

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-03-01

mechanisms in which a particle can exchange energy. Thrust augmenting devices can be divided into two categories: ones that exchange net work or heat and...two categories from the energy equation discussion above. Thrust augmentation is achieved through turbulent entrainment where work and/or heat is...front sustained by compression waves from a trailing reaction zone. A deflagration wave is a subsonic flame front sustained by heat transfer

Computer simulation of the Farley-Buneman instability and anomalous electron heating in the auroral ionosphere

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Machida, S.; Goertz, C.K.

1988-09-01

We study the nonlinear saturation of the Farley-Buneman instability in a collisional plasma by a 2 1/2 dimensional electrostatic particle simulation which includes inelastic and elastic collisions of electrons and elastic collision of ions with neutrals. In our simulation, a uniform convection electric field is applied externally so that the relative velocity between the electrons and ions is greater than the ion sound speed and destabilizes the instability. We find a nonlinear frequency shift from higher to lower frequencies and diffusion of the wave spectrum in two dimensional wave number space. We are especially interested in finding whether the saturatedmore » wave turbulence can account for the anomalous heating rates observed in the polar ionosphere by Schlegel and St.-Maurice (1981). We find that the dominant mechanism for electron heating is due to an enhanced effective electron collision frequency and hence enhanced resistive heating as suggested by Primdahl (1986) and Robinson (1986) and not due to the heating of electrons by the electric field of the waves parallel to the magnetic field. For the ionospheric conditions discussed by Schlegel and St.-Maurice (1981) we find an anomalous heating rate of about 4 x 10/sup -7/ W/m/sup 3/. copyright American Geophysical Union 1988« less

Electron Bernstein Wave Studies in MST

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seltzman, Andrew; Anderson, Jay; Forest, Cary; Nonn, Paul; Thomas, Mark; Reusch, Joshua; Hendries, Eric

2013-10-01

The overdense condition in a RFP prevents electromagnetic waves from propagating past the extreme edge. However use of the electron Bernstein wave (EBW) has the potential to heat and drive current in the plasma. MHD simulations have demonstrated that resistive tearing mode stability is very sensitive to the gradient in the edge current density profile, allowing EBW current drive to influence and potentially stabilize tearing mode activity. Coupling between the X-mode and Bernstein waves is strongly dependent on the edge density gradient. The effects on coupling of plasma density, magnetic field strength, antenna radial position and launch polarization have been examined. Coupling as high as 90% has been observed. Construction of a 450 kw RF source is complete and initial experimental results will be reported. The power and energy of this auxiliary system should be sufficient for several scientific purposes, including verifying mode conversion, EBW propagation and absorption in high beta plasmas. Target plasmas in the 300-400 kA range will be heated near the reversal surface, potentially allowing mode control, while target plasmas in the 250 kA range will allow heating near the core, allowing better observation of heating effects. Heating and heat pulse propagation experiments are planned, as well as probing the stability of parametric decay during mode conversion, at moderate injected power. Work supported by USDOE.

Solar off-limb line widths: Alfvén waves, ion-cyclotron waves, and preferential heating

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dolla, L.; Solomon, J.

2008-05-01

Context: Alfvén waves and ion-cyclotron absorption of high-frequency waves are frequently brought into models devoted to coronal heating and fast solar-wind acceleration. Signatures of ion-cyclotron resonance have already been observed in situ in the solar wind (HELIOS spacecrafts) and, recently, in the upper corona (UVCS/SOHO remote-sensing results). Aims: We propose a method to constrain both the Alfvén wave amplitude and the preferential heating induced by ion-cyclotron resonance, above a partially developed polar coronal hole observed with the SUMER/SOHO spectrometer. Methods: The instrumental stray light contribution is first substracted from the spectra. By supposing that the non-thermal velocity is related to the Alfvén wave amplitude, it is constrained through a density diagnostic and the gradient of the width of the Mg X 625 Å line. The temperatures of several coronal ions, as functions of the distance above the limb, are then determined by substracting the non-thermal component to the observed line widths. Results: The effect of stray light explains the apparent decrease with height in the width of several spectral lines, this decrease usually starting about 0.1-0.2 R_⊙ above the limb. This result rules out any direct evidence of damping of the Alfvén waves, often suggested by other authors. We also find that the ions with the smallest charge-to-mass ratios are the hottest ones at a fixed altitude and that they are subject to a stronger heating, as compared to the others, between 57´´ and 102´´ above the limb. This constitutes a serious clue to ion-cyclotron preferential heating.

Projection of temperature and heat waves for Africa with an ensemble of CORDEX Regional Climate Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dosio, Alessandro

2017-07-01

The most severe effects of global warning will be related to the frequency and severity of extreme events. We provide an analysis of projections of temperature and related extreme events for Africa based on a large ensemble of Regional Climate Models from the COordinated Regional climate Downscaling EXperiment (CORDEX). Results are presented not only by means of widely used indices but also with a recently developed Heat Wave Magnitude Index-daily (HWMId), which takes into account both heat wave duration and intensity. Results show that under RCP8.5, warming of more than 3.5 °C is projected in JFM over most of the continent, whereas in JAS temperatures over large part of Northern Africa, the Sahara and the Arabian peninsula are projected to increase up to 6 °C. Large increase in in the number of warm days (Tx90p) is found over sub equatorial Africa, with values up to more than 90 % in JAS, and more than 80 % in JFM over e.g., the gulf of Guinea, Central African Republic, South Sudan and Ethiopia. Changes in Tn90p (warm nights) are usually larger, with some models projecting Tn90p reaching 95 % starting from around 2060 even under RCP4.5 over the Gulf of Guinea and the Sahel. Results also show that the total length of heat spells projected to occur normally (i.e. once every 2 years) under RCP8.5 may be longer than those occurring once every 30 years under the lower emission scenario. By employing the recently developed HWMId index, it is possible to investigate the relationship between heat wave length ad intensity; in particular it is shown that very intense heat waves such as that occurring over the Horn of Africa may have values of HWMId larger than that of longer, but relatively weak, heat waves over West Africa.

Extreme heat changes post-heat wave community reassembly

PubMed Central

Seifert, Linda I; Weithoff, Guntram; Vos, Matthijs

2015-01-01

Climate forecasts project further increases in extremely high-temperature events. These present threats to biodiversity, as they promote population declines and local species extinctions. This implies that ecological communities will need to rely more strongly on recovery processes, such as recolonization from a meta-community context. It is poorly understood how differences in extreme event intensity change the outcome of subsequent community reassembly and if such extremes modify the biotic environment in ways that would prevent the successful re-establishment of lost species. We studied replicated aquatic communities consisting of algae and herbivorous rotifers in a design that involved a control and two different heat wave intensity treatments (29°C and 39°C). Animal species that suffered heat-induced extinction were subsequently re-introduced at the same time and density, in each of the two treatments. The 39°C treatment led to community closure in all replicates, meaning that a previously successful herbivore species could not re-establish itself in the postheat wave community. In contrast, such closure never occurred after a 29°C event. Heat wave intensity determined the number of herbivore extinctions and strongly affected algal relative abundances. Re-introduced herbivore species were thus confronted with significantly different food environments. This ecological legacy generated by heat wave intensity led to differences in the failure or success of herbivore species re-introductions. Reassembly was significantly more variable, and hence less predictable, after an extreme heat wave, and was more canalized after a moderate one. Our results pertain to relatively simple communities, but they suggest that ecological legacies introduced by extremely high-temperature events may change subsequent ecological recovery and even prevent the successful re-establishment of lost species. Knowing the processes promoting and preventing ecological recovery is crucial to the success of species re-introduction programs and to our ability to restore ecosystems damaged by environmental extremes. PMID:26078851

Climate-driven variations in thermal forcing across a nearshore reef system during a marine heat wave and its potential impact on coral calcification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Falter, J.; Zhang, Z.; Lowe, R.; Foster, T.; McCulloch, M. T.

2016-02-01

We examined the oceanic and atmospheric forces driving seasonal and spatial variability in water temperature across backreef and lagoonal habitats at Coral Bay at Ningaloo Reef, Western Australia before, during, and after a historically unprecedented marine heat wave and resulting mass bleaching event in 2010-2011. Local deviations in the mean daily temperature of nearshore reef waters from offshore values were a linear function of the combined effect of net atmospheric heating and offshore wave height and period . While intra-annual variation in local heat exchange was driven mainly by seasonal changes in short-wave radiation; intra-annual variation in local cooling was driven mostly by changes in relative humidity (r2 = 0.60) and wind speed (r2 = 0.31) which exhibited no apparent seasonality. We demonstrate good agreement between nearshore reef temperatures modeled from offshore sea surface temperatures (SST), offshore wave forcing, and local atmospheric heat fluxes with observed temperatures using a simple linear model (r2 = 0.31 to 0.69, root-mean-square error = 0.4°C to 0.9°C). Using these modeled nearshore reef temperature records, we show that during the heat wave local thermal stresses across the reef reached as high as 18-34 °C-weeks and were being both intensified and accelerated by regional climate forcing when compared with offshore waters (12.6 °C-weeks max). Measurements of coral calcification made in Coral Bay following the bleaching event appear to lack any distinct seasonality; possibly due to the long-term effects of acute thermal stress. However, similarly minimal seasonality in calcification rates had also been observed in an Acropora-dominated community at Ningaloo years before the heat wave as well as more recently in coral from regions in WA that had avoided mass bleaching. These observations, in conjunction with observations that most of the bleached communities within Coral Bay had recovered their color within 3-6 months of the bleaching event, suggest that how reef building coral respond to a severe thermal stress event can be somewhat nuanced depending on the local and regional setting.

The effect of heat waves on dairy cow mortality.

PubMed

Vitali, A; Felici, A; Esposito, S; Bernabucci, U; Bertocchi, L; Maresca, C; Nardone, A; Lacetera, N

2015-07-01

This study investigated the mortality of dairy cows during heat waves. Mortality data (46,610 cases) referred to dairy cows older than 24mo that died on a farm from all causes from May 1 to September 30 during a 6-yr period (2002-2007). Weather data were obtained from 12 weather stations located in different areas of Italy. Heat waves were defined for each weather station as a period of at least 3 consecutive days, from May 1 to September 30 (2002-2007), when the daily maximum temperature exceeded the 90th percentile of the reference distribution (1971-2000). Summer days were classified as days in heat wave (HW) or not in heat wave (nHW). Days in HW were numbered to evaluate the relationship between mortality and length of the wave. Finally, the first 3 nHW days after the end of a heat wave were also considered to account for potential prolonged effects. The mortality risk was evaluated using a case-crossover design. A conditional logistic regression model was used to calculate odds ratio and 95% confidence interval for mortality recorded in HW compared with that recorded in nHW days pooled and stratified by duration of exposure, age of cows, and month of occurrence. Dairy cows mortality was greater during HW compared with nHW days. Furthermore, compared with nHW days, the risk of mortality continued to be higher during the 3 d after the end of HW. Mortality increased with the length of the HW. Considering deaths stratified by age, cows up to 28mo were not affected by HW, whereas all the other age categories of older cows (29-60, 61-96, and >96mo) showed a greater mortality when exposed to HW. The risk of death during HW was higher in early summer months. In particular, the highest risk of mortality was observed during June HW. Present results strongly support the implementation of adaptation strategies which may limit heat stress-related impairment of animal welfare and economic losses in dairy cow farm during HW. Copyright © 2015 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Characterizing the intra-urban spatiotemporal dynamics of High Heat Stress Zones (Hotspots)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shreevastava, A.; Rao, P. S.; McGrath, G. S.

2017-12-01

In this study, we present an innovative framework to characterize the spatio-temporal dynamics of High Heat Stress Zones (Hot spots) created within an Urban area in the event of a Heat Wave. Heat waves are one of the leading causes of weather-related human mortality in many countries, and cities receive its worst brunt. The extreme heat stress within urban areas is often a synergistic combination of large-scale meteorological events, and the locally exacerbated impacts due to Urban Heat Islands (UHI). UHI is typically characterized as the difference between mean temperature of the urban and rural area. As a result, it fails to capture the significant variability that exists within the city itself. This variability arises from the diverse and complex spatial geometries of cities. Previous studies that have attempted to quantify the heat stress at an intra-urban scale are labor intensive, expensive, and difficult to emulate globally as they rely on availability of extensive data and their assimilation. The proposed study takes advantage of the well-established notion of fractal properties of cities to make the methods scalable to other cities where in-situ observational data might not be available. As an input, land surface temperatures are estimated using Landsat data. Using clustering analysis, we probe the emergence of thermal hotspots. The probability distributions (PD) of these hotspots are found to follow a power-law distribution in agreement with fractal characteristics of the city. PDs of several archetypical cities are then investigated to compare the effect of different spatial structures (e.g. monocentric v/s polycentric, sprawl v/s compact). Further, the temporal variability of the distributions on a diurnal as well as a seasonal scale is discussed. Finally, the spatiotemporal dynamics of the urban hotspots under a heat-wave (E.g. Delhi Heat wave, 2015) are compared against the non-heat wave scenarios. In summary, a technique that is globally adaptive and scale independent, achieved by building on the fractal properties of cities, is presented here. Identification of hotspots and a diagnosis of their characteristics will help in targeting resources judiciously to those areas that warrant the most attention, thereby helping design cities which better mitigate heat stress.

Wave Coupling in the Atmosphere-Ionosphere System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Forbes, J. M.

2016-12-01

Vertically-propagating solar and lunar tides, Kelvin waves, gravity waves (GW) and planetary waves (PW) constitute the primary mechanism for transmitting lower atmosphere variability to the upper atmosphere and ionosphere. Vertically propagating waves grow exponentially with height into the more rarified atmosphere where they dissipate, deposit net momentum and heat, and induce net constituent transport. Some waves penetrate to the base of the exosphere (ca. 500-600 km). Over the past decade, a mature knowledge of the tidal part of the spectrum has emerged, in an average or climatological sense, up to about 110 km. This knowledge has largely accrued as a result of remote sensing observations made from the TIMED satellite. These observations have also enabled limited studies on day-to-day variability of atmospheric tides, the PW and Kelvin wave spectra up to 110 km, and PW-tide coupling. Complementary ionospheric observations made by GPS receivers, COSMIC, CHAMP, and ROCSAT contain signatures of plasma redistributions induced by these waves, and ionosphere-thermosphere (IT) general circulation models have been developed that provide a corroborating theoretical foundation. Pioneering theoretical and modeling work also demonstrate the importance of the GW part of the spectrum on thermosphere circulation and thermal structure. While significant strides have been made, critical shortcomings in our understanding of atmosphere-IT coupling remain. In particular, we are practically absent any observations of the vertical evolution and dissipation of the wave spectrum between 100 and 200 km, which is also the region where electric fields and currents are generated by dynamo action. Moreover, the day-to-day variability of the wave spectrum and secondary wave generation remain to be quantified in this critical region. In this talk, the above progress and knowledge gaps will be examined in light of imminent and potential future missions.

Refrigeration system having standing wave compressor

DOEpatents

Lucas, Timothy S.

1992-01-01

A compression-evaporation refrigeration system, wherein gaseous compression of the refrigerant is provided by a standing wave compressor. The standing wave compressor is modified so as to provide a separate subcooling system for the refrigerant, so that efficiency losses due to flashing are reduced. Subcooling occurs when heat exchange is provided between the refrigerant and a heat pumping surface, which is exposed to the standing acoustic wave within the standing wave compressor. A variable capacity and variable discharge pressure for the standing wave compressor is provided. A control circuit simultaneously varies the capacity and discharge pressure in response to changing operating conditions, thereby maintaining the minimum discharge pressure needed for condensation to occur at any time. Thus, the power consumption of the standing wave compressor is reduced and system efficiency is improved.

Pre-supernova outbursts via wave heating in massive stars - II. Hydrogen-poor stars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fuller, Jim; Ro, Stephen

2018-05-01

Pre-supernova (SN) outbursts from massive stars may be driven by hydrodynamical wave energy emerging from the core of the progenitor star during late nuclear-burning phases. Here, we examine the effects of wave heating in stars containing little or no hydrogen, i.e. progenitors of Type IIb/Ib SNe. Because there is no massive hydrogen envelope, wave energy is thermalized near the stellar surface where the overlying atmospheric mass is small but the optical depth is large. Wave energy can thus unbind this material, driving an optically thick, super-Eddington wind. Using 1D hydrodynamic MESA simulations of ˜5 M⊙ He stars, we find that wave heating can drive pre-SN outbursts composed of a dense wind whose mass-loss rate can exceed ˜0.1 M⊙ yr-1. The wind terminal velocities are a few 100 km s-1, and outburst luminosities can reach ˜106 L⊙. Wave-driven outbursts may be linked with observed or inferred pre-SN outbursts of Type Ibn/transitional/transformational SNe, and pre-SN wave-driven mass loss is a good candidate to produce these types of SNe. However, we also show that non-linear wave breaking in the core of the star may prevent such outbursts in stars with thick convective helium-burning shells. Hence, only a limited subset of SN progenitors is likely to experience wave-driven pre-SN outbursts.

A second-order theory for transverse ion heating and momentum coupling due to electrostatic ion cyclotron waves

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Miller, Ronald H.; Winske, Dan; Gary, S. P.

1992-01-01

A second-order theory for electrostatic instabilities driven by counterstreaming ion beams is developed which describes momentum coupling and heating of the plasma via wave-particle interactions. Exchange rates between the waves and particles are derived, which are suitable for the fluid equations simulating microscopic effects on macroscopic scales. Using a fully kinetic simulation, the electrostatic ion cyclotron instability due to counterstreaming H(+) beams has been simulated. A power spectrum from the kinetic simulation is used to evaluate second-order exchange rates. The calculated heating and momentum loss from second-order theory is compared to the numerical simulation.

Modeling the Warming Impact of Urban Land Expansion on Hot Weather Using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model: A Case Study of Beijing, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Xiaojuan; Tian, Guangjin; Feng, Jinming; Ma, Bingran; Wang, Jun; Kong, Lingqiang

2018-06-01

The impacts of three periods of urban land expansion during 1990-2010 on near-surface air temperature in summer in Beijing were simulated in this study, and then the interrelation between heat waves and urban warming was assessed. We ran the sensitivity tests using the mesoscaleWeather Research and Forecasting model coupled with a single urban canopy model, as well as high-resolution land cover data. The warming area expanded approximately at the same scale as the urban land expansion. The average regional warming induced by urban expansion increased but the warming speed declined slightly during 2000-2010. The smallest warming occurred at noon and then increased gradually in the afternoon before peaking at around 2000 LST—the time of sunset. In the daytime, urban warming was primarily caused by the decrease in latent heat flux at the urban surface. Urbanization led to more ground heat flux during the day and then more release at night, which resulted in nocturnal warming. Urban warming at night was higher than that in the day, although the nighttime increment in sensible heat flux was smaller. This was because the shallower planetary boundary layer at night reduced the release efficiency of near-surface heat. The simulated results also suggested that heat waves or high temperature weather enhanced urban warming intensity at night. Heat waves caused more heat to be stored in the surface during the day, greater heat released at night, and thus higher nighttime warming. Our results demonstrate a positive feedback effect between urban warming and heat waves in urban areas.

Experimental investigation of effect of surface gravity waves and spray on heat and momentum flux at strong wind conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Troitskaya, Yuliya; Sergeev, Daniil; Vdovin, Maxim; Kandaurov, Alexander; Ermakova, Olga; Kazakov, Vassily

2015-04-01

The most important characteristics that determine the interaction between atmosphere and ocean are fluxes of momentum, heat and moisture. For their parameterization the dimensionless exchange coefficients (the surface drag coefficient CD and the heat transfer coefficient or the Stanton number CT) are used. Numerous field and laboratory experiments show that CD increases with increasing wind speed at moderate and strong wind, and as it was shows recently CD decreases at hurricane wind speed. Waves are known to increase the sea surface resistance due to enhanced form drag, the sea spray is considered as a possible mechanism of the 'drag reduction' at hurricane conditions. The dependence of heat transfer coefficient CD on the wind speed is not so certain and the role of the mechanism associated with the wave disturbances in the mass transfer is not completely understood. Observations and laboratory data show that this dependence is weaker than for the CD, and there are differences in the character of the dependence in different data sets. The purpose of this paper is investigation of the effect of surface waves on the turbulent exchange of momentum and heat within the laboratory experiment, when wind and wave parameters are maintained and controlled. The effect of spray on turbulent exchange at strong winds is also estimated. A series of experiments to study the processes of turbulent exchange of momentum and heat in a stably stratified temperature turbulent boundary layer air flow over waved water surface were carried out at the Wind - wave stratified flume of IAP RAS, the peculiarity of this experiment was the option to change the surface wave parameters regardless of the speed of the wind flow in the channel. For this purpose a polyethylene net with the variable depth (0.25 mm thick and a cell of 1.6 mm × 1.6mm) has been stretched along the channel. The waves were absent when the net was located at the level of the undisturbed water surface, and had maximum amplitude at the maximum depth of the net (33cm). To create a stable temperature stratification of the wind, the air entering the flume was heated to 30-40 oC. The water temperature was maintained about 15 degrees. The air flow velocity in the flume corresponded to the 10-m wind speed from 10 to 35 m/s. Turbulent fluxes of heat and momentum and roughness parameters were retrieved from the velocity and temperature profiles measured at the distance 6.5 m from the inlet of the flume and subsequent data processing exploiting the self-similarity of the temperature and velocity profiles. In a result surface drag and heat exchange coefficients and roughness parameters were obtained. Wind wave spectra and integral parameters (significant wave height, mean square slope) were retrieved from measurements by 3-channel array wave gauge by coherent spectral data processing. To estimate the amount of spray in the air flow, a spray marker was introduced using the effect of a sharp decline in film anemometer readings in contact with a droplet. Dependences of the exchange coefficients on the wind speed, wave parameters and the spray marker were obtained. It is shown that the exchange coefficients increase with the wind speed and wave height. It was found, that the sharp increase of the drag and heat exchange coefficients at wind speeds exceeded 25 m/s was accompanied by the emergence and increasing concentration of the spray in the air flow over water. The correlation coefficient between the drag coefficient and the spray marker was about 0.9. Using high-speed video revealed the dominant mechanism for the generation of spray at strong winds. It is shown that it is associated with the development of a special type of instability of the air-water interface, which is known as "bag-breakup instability" in the theory of fragmentation of liquids. The hypothesis is suggested, that the observed increase of surface drag and heat exchange can be attributed to the development of this type of instability. This work was supported by the Russian Foundation of Basic Research (13-05-00865, 14-05-91767, 13-05-12093, 15-05-) and Alexander Kandaurov, Maxim Vdovin and Olga Ermakova acknowledge partial support from Russian Science Foundation (Agreement No. 14-17-00667).

Local heat stroke prevention plans in Japan: characteristics and elements for public health adaptation to climate change.

PubMed

Martinez, Gerardo Sanchez; Imai, Chisato; Masumo, Kanako

2011-12-01

The adverse health effects from hot weather and heat waves represent significant public health risks in vulnerable areas worldwide. Rising temperatures due to climate change are aggravating these risks in a context of fast urbanization, population growth and societal ageing. However, environmental heat-related health effects are largely preventable through adequate preparedness and responses. Public health adaptation to climate change will often require the implementation of heat wave warning systems and targeted preventive activities at different levels. While several national governments have established such systems at the country level, municipalities do not generally play a major role in the prevention of heat disorders. This paper analyzes selected examples of locally operated heat-health prevention plans in Japan. The analysis of these plans highlights their strengths, but also the need of local institutions for assistance to make the transition towards an effective public health management of high temperatures and heat waves. It can also provide useful elements for municipal governments in vulnerable areas, both in planning their climate change and health adaptation activities or to better protect their communities against current health effects from heat.

Local Heat Stroke Prevention Plans in Japan: Characteristics and Elements for Public Health Adaptation to Climate Change

PubMed Central

Martinez, Gerardo Sanchez; Imai, Chisato; Masumo, Kanako

2011-01-01

The adverse health effects from hot weather and heat waves represent significant public health risks in vulnerable areas worldwide. Rising temperatures due to climate change are aggravating these risks in a context of fast urbanization, population growth and societal ageing. However, environmental heat-related health effects are largely preventable through adequate preparedness and responses. Public health adaptation to climate change will often require the implementation of heat wave warning systems and targeted preventive activities at different levels. While several national governments have established such systems at the country level, municipalities do not generally play a major role in the prevention of heat disorders. This paper analyzes selected examples of locally operated heat-health prevention plans in Japan. The analysis of these plans highlights their strengths, but also the need of local institutions for assistance to make the transition towards an effective public health management of high temperatures and heat waves. It can also provide useful elements for municipal governments in vulnerable areas, both in planning their climate change and health adaptation activities or to better protect their communities against current health effects from heat. PMID:22408589

Modulated heat pulse propagation and partial transport barriers in chaotic magnetic fields

DOE PAGES

del-Castillo-Negrete, Diego; Blazevski, Daniel

2016-04-01

Direct numerical simulations of the time dependent parallel heat transport equation modeling heat pulses driven by power modulation in 3-dimensional chaotic magnetic fields are presented. The numerical method is based on the Fourier formulation of a Lagrangian-Green's function method that provides an accurate and efficient technique for the solution of the parallel heat transport equation in the presence of harmonic power modulation. The numerical results presented provide conclusive evidence that even in the absence of magnetic flux surfaces, chaotic magnetic field configurations with intermediate levels of stochasticity exhibit transport barriers to modulated heat pulse propagation. In particular, high-order islands and remnants of destroyed flux surfaces (Cantori) act as partial barriers that slow down or even stop the propagation of heat waves at places where the magnetic field connection length exhibits a strong gradient. The key parameter ismore » $$\\gamma=\\sqrt{\\omega/2 \\chi_\\parallel}$$ that determines the length scale, $$1/\\gamma$$, of the heat wave penetration along the magnetic field line. For large perturbation frequencies, $$\\omega \\gg 1$$, or small parallel thermal conductivities, $$\\chi_\\parallel \\ll 1$$, parallel heat transport is strongly damped and the magnetic field partial barriers act as robust barriers where the heat wave amplitude vanishes and its phase speed slows down to a halt. On the other hand, in the limit of small $$\\gamma$$, parallel heat transport is largely unimpeded, global transport is observed and the radial amplitude and phase speed of the heat wave remain finite. Results on modulated heat pulse propagation in fully stochastic fields and across magnetic islands are also presented. In qualitative agreement with recent experiments in LHD and DIII-D, it is shown that the elliptic (O) and hyperbolic (X) points of magnetic islands have a direct impact on the spatio-temporal dependence of the amplitude and the time delay of modulated heat pulses.« less

SIMULATIONS OF ALFVÉN AND KINK WAVE DRIVING OF THE SOLAR CHROMOSPHERE: EFFICIENT HEATING AND SPICULE LAUNCHING

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brady, C. S.; Arber, T. D., E-mail: c.s.brady@warwick.ac.uk

2016-10-01

Two of the central problems in our understanding of the solar chromosphere are how the upper chromosphere is heated and what drives spicules. Estimates of the required chromospheric heating, based on radiative and conductive losses, suggest a rate of ∼0.1 erg cm{sup −3} s{sup −1} in the lower chromosphere and drops to ∼10{sup −3} erg cm{sup −3} s{sup −1} in the upper chromosphere. The chromosphere is also permeated by spicules, higher density plasma from the lower atmosphere propelled upwards at speeds of ∼10–20 km s{sup −1}, for so-called Type I spicules, which reach heights of ∼3000–5000 km above the photosphere.more » A clearer understanding of chromospheric dynamics, its heating, and the formation of spicules is thus of central importance to solar atmospheric science. For over 30 years it has been proposed that photospheric driving of MHD waves may be responsible for both heating and spicule formation. This paper presents results from a high-resolution MHD treatment of photospheric driven Alfvén and kink waves propagating upwards into an expanding flux tube embedded in a model chromospheric atmosphere. We show that the ponderomotive coupling from Alfvén and kink waves into slow modes generates shocks, which both heat the upper chromosphere and drive spicules. These simulations show that wave driving of the solar chromosphere can give a local heating rate that matches observations and drive spicules consistent with Type I observations all within a single coherent model.« less

Formation of stimulated electromagnetic emission of the ionosphere: laboratory modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Starodubtsev, Mikhail; Kostrov, Alexander; Nazarov, Vladimir

Laboratory modeling of some physical processes involved in generation of the stimulated elec-tromagnetic emission (SEE) is presented. SEE is a noise component observed in the spectrum of the pump electromagnetic wave reflected from the heated ionosphere during the ionospheric heating experiments. In our laboratory experiments, main attention has been paid to the experimental investigation of generation of the most pronounced SEE components connected to the small-scale filamentation of the heated area of the ionosphere. It has been shown that the main physical mechanism of thermal magnetoplasma nonlinearity in this frequency range is due to thermal self-channeling of the Langmuir waves. This mechanism has the minimal threshold and should appear when both laboratory and ionospheric plasmas are heated by high-power radiowaves. Thermal self-channeling of Langmuir waves is connected with the fact that Langmuir waves are trapped in the area of depleted plasma density. As a result, wave amplitude significantly increases in these depleted ragion, which lead to the local plasma heating and, consequently, to the deepening of the plasma density depletion due to plasma thermo-diffusion. As the result, narrow, magnetic-field-aligned plasma density irregularities are formed in a magnetoplasma. Self-channelled Langmuir waves exhibit well-pronoused spectral satellites shifted by 1-2 MHz from the fundamental frequency (about 700 MHz in our experimental conditions). It has been found that there exist two main mechanisms of satellite formation. First mechanism (dynamic) has been observed during the formation of the small-scale irregularity, when its longitudinal size increases fastly. During this process, spectrum of the trapped wave characterizes by one low-frequency satellite. Physical mechanism, which lead to the formation of this satellite is connected to Doppler shift of the frequency of Langmuir waves trapped in the non-stationar plasma irregularity. Second mechanism (stationary) has been observed in the case of the devel-oped irregularity, i.e. when its shape is close to the cylindrical one. In this regime, spectrum of the trapped wave is characterized by two symmetric (Stokes and anti-Stokes) spectral satellites. It has been proposed that generation of these satellites is connected with scattering of trapped Langmuir waves on the drift oscillations of the irregularity.

Unsteady Heat-Flux Measurements of Second-Mode Instability Waves in a Hypersonic Boundary Layer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kergerise, Michael A.; Rufer, Shann J.

2016-01-01

In this paper we report on the application of the atomic layer thermopile (ALTP) heat- flux sensor to the measurement of laminar-to-turbulent transition in a hypersonic flat plate boundary layer. The centerline of the flat-plate model was instrumented with a streamwise array of ALTP sensors and the flat-plate model was exposed to a Mach 6 freestream over a range of unit Reynolds numbers. Here, we observed an unstable band of frequencies that are associated with second-mode instability waves in the laminar boundary layer that forms on the flat-plate surface. The measured frequencies, group velocities, phase speeds, and wavelengths of these instability waves are in agreement with data previously reported in the literature. Heat flux time series, and the Morlet-wavelet transforms of them, revealed the wave-packet nature of the second-mode instability waves. In addition, a laser-based radiative heating system was developed to measure the frequency response functions (FRF) of the ALTP sensors used in the wind tunnel test. These measurements were used to assess the stability of the sensor FRFs over time and to correct spectral estimates for any attenuation caused by the finite sensor bandwidth.

Mode conversion in three ion species ICRF heating scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Y.; Edlund, E.; Ennever, P.; Porkolab, M.; Wright, J.; Wukitch, S.

2016-10-01

Three-ion species ICRF heating has been studied on Alcator C-Mod and on JET. It has been shown to heat the plasma and generate energetic particles. In a typical three-ion scenario, the plasma consists of 60-70% D, 30-40% H and a trace level (1% or less) of 3He. This species mixture creates two hybrid resonances (D-3He and 3He-H) in the plasma, in the vicinity of the 3He IC resonance (on both sides). The fast wave can undergo mode conversion (MC) to ion Bernstein waves and ion cyclotron waves at the two hybrid resonances. A phase contrast imaging (PCI) system has been used to measure the RF waves in the three-ion heating experiment. The experimentally measured MC locations and the separating distance between the two MC regions help to determine the concentration of the three species. The PCI signal amplitudes for the RF waves are found to be sensitive to RF and plasma parameters, including PRF, Te, ne and also the species mix concentration. The parameter dependences found in the experiment will be compared with ICRF code simulations. Supported by USDoE Awards DE-FC02-99ER54512 and DE-FG02-94-ER54235.

Classical Heat-Flux Measurements in Coronal Plasmas from Collective Thomson-Scattering Spectra

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henchen, R. J.; Hu, S. X.; Katz, J.; Froula, D. H.; Rozmus, W.

2016-10-01

Collective Thomson scattering was used to measure heat flux in coronal plasmas. The relative amplitude of the Thomson-scattered power into the up- and downshifted electron plasma wave features was used to determine the flux of electrons moving along the temperature gradient at three to four times the electron thermal velocity. Simultaneously, the ion-acoustic wave features were measured. Their relative amplitude was used to measure the flux of the return-current electrons. The frequencies of these ion-acoustic and electron plasma wave features provide local measurements of the electron temperature and density. These spectra were obtained at five locations along the temperature gradient in a laser-produced blowoff plasma. These measurements of plasma parameters are used to infer the Spitzer-Härm flux (qSH = - κ∇Te ) and are in good agreement with the values of the heat flux measured from the scattering-feature asymmetries. Additional experiments probed plasma waves perpendicular to the temperature gradient. The data show small effects resulting from heat flux compared to probing waves along the temperature gradient. This material is based upon work supported by the Department of Energy National Nuclear Security Administration under Award Number DE-NA0001944.

Unsteady heat-flux measurements of second-mode instability waves in a hypersonic flat-plate boundary layer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kegerise, Michael A.; Rufer, Shann J.

2016-08-01

In this paper, we report on the application of the atomic layer thermopile (ALTP) heat-flux sensor to the measurement of laminar-to-turbulent transition in a hypersonic flat-plate boundary layer. The centerline of the flat-plate model was instrumented with a streamwise array of ALTP sensors, and the flat-plate model was exposed to a Mach 6 freestream over a range of unit Reynolds numbers. Here, we observed an unstable band of frequencies that are associated with second-mode instability waves in the laminar boundary layer that forms on the flat-plate surface. The measured frequencies, group velocities, phase speeds, and wavelengths of these instability waves are consistent with data previously reported in the literature. Heat flux time series, and the Morlet wavelet transforms of them, revealed the wave-packet nature of the second-mode instability waves. In addition, a laser-based radiative heating system was used to measure the frequency response functions (FRF) of the ALTP sensors used in the wind tunnel test. These measurements were used to assess the stability of the sensor FRFs over time and to correct spectral estimates for any attenuation caused by the finite sensor bandwidth.

Eurasian Heat Waves: Mechanisms and Predictability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, Hailan; Schubert, Siegfried; Koster, Randal; Suarez, Max

2012-01-01

This study uses the NASA MERRA reanalysis and GEOS 5 model simulations to examine the causes of Eurasian heat waves including the recent extreme events that occurred in Europe during 2003 and in Russia during 2010. The focus is on the warm season and the part of the Eurasian continent that extends north of about 40oN, or roughly to the north of the mean upper tropospheric jet stream. The results show that such extreme events are an amplification of natural patterns of atmospheric variability that develop over the Eurasian continent as a result of internal atmospheric forcing. The amplification occurs when the wave occasionally becomes locked in place for several weeks to months resulting in extreme heat and drying with the location depending on the phase of the upper atmospheric wave. An ensemble of very long GEOS-S model simulations (spanning the 20th century) forced with observed SST and greenhouse gases show that the model is capable of generating very similar heat waves, and that they have become more intense in the last thirty years as a result of the overall warming of the Asian continent. Sensitivity experiments with perturbed initial conditions indicate that these events have limited predictability.

Effects of PM fouling on the heat exchange effectiveness of wave fin type EGR cooler for diesel engine use

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jang, Sang-Hoon; Hwang, Se-Joon; Park, Sang-Ki; Choi, Kap-Seung; Kim, Hyung-Man

2012-06-01

Developing an effective method of reducing nitrogen oxide emissions is an important goal in diesel engine research. The use of cooled exhaust gas recirculation has been considered one of the most effective techniques of reducing nitrogen oxide. However, since the combustion characteristics in a diesel engine involves high temperature and load, the amount of particulate matter emission tends to increase, and there is a trade-off between the amount of nitrogen oxide and particulate matter emissions. In the present study, engine dynamometer experiments are performed to investigate the effects of particulate matter fouling on the heat exchange characteristics of wave fin type exhaust gas recirculation coolers that have four cases of two wave pitch and three fin pitch lengths. To optimize the fin and wave pitches of the EGR cooler, the exhaust gas temperature, pressure drop and heat exchange effectiveness are compared. The experimental results show that the exhaust gas recirculation cooler with a fin pitch of 3.6 mm and a wave pitch of 8.8 mm exhibits better heat exchange characteristics and smaller particulate matter fouling effect than the other coolers.

Simulations towards the achievement of non-inductive current ramp-up and sustainment in the National Spherical Torus Experiment Upgrade

DOE PAGES

Poli, F. M.; Andre, R. G.; Bertelli, N.; ...

2015-10-30

One of the goals of the National Spherical Torus Experiment Upgrade (NSTX-U) (Menard et al 2012 Nucl. Fusion 52 083015) is the demonstration of fully non-inductive start-up, current ramp-up and sustainment. This work discusses predictive simulations where the available heating and current drive systems are combined to maximize the non-inductive current and minimize the solenoidal contribution. Radio-frequency waves at harmonics higher than the ion cyclotron resonance (high-harmonic fast waves (HHFW)) and neutral beam injection are used to ramp the plasma current non-inductively starting from an initial Ohmic plasma. An interesting synergy is observed in the simulations between the HHFW andmore » electron cyclotron (EC) wave heating. Furthermore, time-dependent simulations indicate that, depending on the phasing of the HHFW antenna, EC wave heating can significantly increase the effectiveness of the radio-frequency power, by heating the electrons and increasing the current drive efficiency, thus relaxing the requirements on the level of HHFW power that needs to be absorbed in the core plasma to drive the same amount of fast-wave current.« less

Preferential Heating of Oxygen 5+ Ions by Finite-Amplitude Oblique Alfven Waves

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Maneva, Yana G.; Vinas, Adolfo; Araneda, Jamie; Poedts, Stefaan

2016-01-01

Minor ions in the fast solar wind are known to have higher temperatures and to flow faster than protons in the interplanetary space. In this study we combine previous research on parametric instability theory and 2.5D hybrid simulations to study the onset of preferential heating of Oxygen 5+ ions by large-scale finite-amplitude Alfven waves in the collisionless fast solar wind. We consider initially non-drifting isotropic multi-species plasma, consisting of isothermal massless fluid electrons, kinetic protons and kinetic Oxygen 5+ ions. The external energy source for the plasma heating and energization are oblique monochromatic Alfven-cyclotron waves. The waves have been created by rotating the direction of initial parallel pump, which is a solution of the multi-fluid plasma dispersion relation. We consider propagation angles theta less than or equal to 30 deg. The obliquely propagating Alfven pump waves lead to strong diffusion in the ion phase space, resulting in highly anisotropic heavy ion velocity distribution functions and proton beams. We discuss the application of the model to the problems of preferential heating of minor ions in the solar corona and the fast solar wind.

EASI - EQUILIBRIUM AIR SHOCK INTERFERENCE

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Glass, C. E.

1994-01-01

New research on hypersonic vehicles, such as the National Aero-Space Plane (NASP), has raised concerns about the effects of shock-wave interference on various structural components of the craft. State-of-the-art aerothermal analysis software is inadequate to predict local flow and heat flux in areas of extremely high heat transfer, such as the surface impingement of an Edney-type supersonic jet. EASI revives and updates older computational methods for calculating inviscid flow field and maximum heating from shock wave interference. The program expands these methods to solve problems involving the six shock-wave interference patterns on a two-dimensional cylindrical leading edge with an equilibrium chemically reacting gas mixture (representing, for example, the scramjet cowl of the NASP). The inclusion of gas chemistry allows for a more accurate prediction of the maximum pressure and heating loads by accounting for the effects of high temperature on the air mixture. Caloric imperfections and specie dissociation of high-temperature air cause shock-wave angles, flow deflection angles, and thermodynamic properties to differ from those calculated by a calorically perfect gas model. EASI contains pressure- and temperature-dependent thermodynamic and transport properties to determine heating rates, and uses either a calorically perfect air model or an 11-specie, 7-reaction reacting air model at equilibrium with temperatures up to 15,000 K for the inviscid flowfield calculations. EASI solves the flow field and the associated maximum surface pressure and heat flux for the six common types of shock wave interference. Depending on the type of interference, the program solves for shock-wave/boundary-layer interaction, expansion-fan/boundary-layer interaction, attaching shear layer or supersonic jet impingement. Heat flux predictions require a knowledge (from experimental data or relevant calculations) of a pertinent length scale of the interaction. Output files contain flow-field information for the various shock-wave interference patterns and their associated maximum surface pressure and heat flux predictions. EASI is written in FORTRAN 77 for a DEC VAX 8500 series computer using the VAX/VMS operating system, and requires 75K of memory. The program is available on a 9-track 1600 BPI magnetic tape in DEC VAX BACKUP format. EASI was developed in 1989. DEC, VAX, and VMS are registered trademarks of the Digital Equipment Corporation.

Temporal variation in the effect of heat and the role of the Italian heat prevention plan.

PubMed

de'Donato, F; Scortichini, M; De Sario, M; de Martino, A; Michelozzi, P

2018-05-08

The aim of the article is to evaluate the temporal change in the effect of heat on mortality in Italy in the last 12 years after the introduction of the national heat plan. Time series analysis. Distributed lag non-linear models were used to estimate the association between maximum apparent temperature and mortality in 23 Italian cities included in the national heat plan in four study periods (before the introduction of the heat plan and three periods after the plan was in place between 2005 and 2016). The effect (relative risks) and impact (attributable fraction [AF] and number of heat-related deaths) were estimated for mild summer temperatures (20th and 75th percentile maximum apparent temperature [Tappmax]) and extreme summer temperatures (75th and 99th percentile Tappmax) in each study period. A survey of the heat preventive measures adopted over time in the cities included in the Italian heat plan was carried out to better describe adaptation measures and response. Although heat still has an impact on mortality in Italian cities, a reduction in heat-related mortality is observed progressively over time. In terms of the impact, the heat AF related to extreme temperatures declined from 6.3% in the period 1999-2002 to 4.1% in 2013-2016. Considering the entire temperature range (20th vs 99th percentile), the total number of heat-related deaths spared over the entire study period was 1900. Considering future climate change and the health burden associated to heat waves, it is important to promote adaptation measures by showing the potential effectiveness of heat prevention plans. Copyright © 2018 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Molecular dynamics study of lubricant depletion by pulsed laser heating

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seo, Young Woo; Rosenkranz, Andreas; Talke, Frank E.

2018-05-01

In this study, molecular dynamics simulations were performed to numerically investigate the effect of pulsed laser heating on lubricant depletion. The maximum temperature, the lubricant depletion width, the number of evaporated lubricant beads and the number of fragmented lubricant chains were studied as a function of laser peak power, pulse duration and repetition rate. A continuous-wave laser and a square pulse laser were simulated and compared to a Gaussian pulse laser. With increasing repetition rate, pulsed laser heating was found to approach continuous-wave laser heating.

A Parametric Study of the Acoustic Mechanism for Core-collapse Supernovae

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Harada, A.; Nagakura, H.; Iwakami, W.

We investigate the criterion for the acoustic mechanism to work successfully in core-collapse supernovae. The acoustic mechanism is an alternative to the neutrino-heating mechanism. It was proposed by Burrows et al., who claimed that acoustic waves emitted by g -mode oscillations in proto-neutron stars (PNS) energize a stalled shock wave and eventually induce an explosion. Previous works mainly studied to which extent the g -modes are excited in the PNS. In this paper, on the other hand, we investigate how strong the acoustic wave needs to be if it were to revive a stalled shock wave. By adding the acousticmore » power as a new axis, we draw a critical surface, which is an extension of the critical curve commonly employed in the context of neutrino heating. We perform both 1D and 2D parametrized simulations, in which we inject acoustic waves from the inner boundary. In order to quantify the power of acoustic waves, we use the extended Myers theory to take neutrino reactions into proper account. We find for the 1D simulations that rather large acoustic powers are required to relaunch the shock wave, since the additional heating provided by the secondary shocks developed from acoustic waves is partially canceled by the neutrino cooling that is also enhanced. In 2D, the required acoustic powers are consistent with those of Burrows et al. Our results seem to imply, however, that it is the sum of neutrino heating and acoustic powers that matters for shock revival.« less

Ion-Scale Wave Properties and Enhanced Ion Heating Across the Low-Latitude Boundary Layer During Kelvin-Helmholtz Instability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moore, T. W.; Nykyri, K.; Dimmock, A. P.

2017-11-01

In the Earth's magnetosphere, the magnetotail plasma sheet ions are much hotter than in the shocked solar wind. On the dawn sector, the cold-component ions are more abundant and hotter by 30-40% when compared to the dusk sector. Recent statistical studies of the flank magnetopause and magnetosheath have shown that the level of temperature asymmetry of the magnetosheath is unable to account for this, so additional physical mechanisms must be at play, either at the magnetopause or plasma sheet that contributes to this asymmetry. In this study, we perform a statistical analysis on the ion-scale wave properties in the three main plasma regimes common to flank magnetopause boundary crossings when the boundary is unstable to Kelvin-Helmholtz instability (KHI): hot and tenuous magnetospheric, cold and dense magnetosheath, and mixed (Hasegawa et al., 2004). These statistics of ion-scale wave properties are compared to observations of fast magnetosonic wave modes that have recently been linked to Kelvin-Helmholtz (KH) vortex centered ion heating (Moore et al., 2016). The statistical analysis shows that during KH events there is enhanced nonadiabatic heating calculated during ion scale wave intervals when compared to non-KH events. This suggests that during KH events there is more free energy for ion-scale wave generation, which in turn can heat ions more effectively when compared to cases when KH waves are absent. This may contribute to the dawn favored temperature asymmetry of the plasma sheet; recent studies suggest KH waves favor the dawn flank during Parker-Spiral interplanetary magnetic field.

Heating a plasma by a broadband stream of fast electrons: Fast ignition, shock ignition, and Gbar shock wave applications

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gus’kov, S. Yu., E-mail: guskov@sci.lebedev.ru; Nicolai, Ph.; Ribeyre, X.

2015-09-15

An exact analytic solution is found for the steady-state distribution function of fast electrons with an arbitrary initial spectrum irradiating a planar low-Z plasma with an arbitrary density distribution. The solution is applied to study the heating of a material by fast electrons of different spectra such as a monoenergetic spectrum, a step-like distribution in a given energy range, and a Maxwellian spectrum, which is inherent in laser-produced fast electrons. The heating of shock- and fast-ignited precompressed inertial confinement fusion (ICF) targets as well as the heating of a target designed to generate a Gbar shock wave for equation ofmore » state (EOS) experiments by laser-produced fast electrons with a Maxwellian spectrum is investigated. A relation is established between the energies of two groups of Maxwellian fast electrons, which are responsible for generation of a shock wave and heating the upstream material (preheating). The minimum energy of the fast and shock igniting beams as well as of the beam for a Gbar shock wave generation increases with the spectral width of the electron distribution.« less

Development and Testing of a Refractory Millimeter-Wave Absorbent Heat Exchanger

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lambot, Thomas; Myrabo, Leik; Murakami, David; Parkin, Kevin

2014-01-01

Central to the Millimeter-Wave Thermal Launch System (MTLS) is the millimeter-wave absorbent heat exchanger. We have developed metallic and ceramic variants, with the key challenge being the millimeter-wave absorbent coatings for each. The ceramic heat exchanger came to fruition first, demonstrating for the first time 1800 K peak surface temperatures under illumination by a 110 GHz Gaussian beam. Absorption efficiencies of up to 80 are calculated for mullite heat exchanger tubes and up to 50 are calculated for alumina tubes. These are compared with estimates based on stratified layer and finite element analyses. The problem of how to connect the 1800 K end of the ceramic tubes to a graphite outlet manifold and nozzle is solved by press fitting, or by threading the ends of the ceramic tubes and screwing them into place. The problem of how to connect the ceramic tubes to a metallic or nylon inlet pipe is solved by using soft compliant PTFE and PVC tubes that accommodate thermal deformations of the ceramic tubes during startup and operation. We show the resulting heat exchangers in static tests using argon and helium as propellants.

Impact of wave mixing on the sea ice cover

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rynders, Stefanie; Aksenov, Yevgeny; Madec, Gurvan; Nurser, George; Feltham, Daniel

2017-04-01

As information on surface waves in ice-covered regions becomes available in ice-ocean models, there is an opportunity to model wave-related processes more accurate. Breaking waves cause mixing of the upper water column and present mixing schemes in ocean models take this into account through surface roughness. A commonly used approach is to calculate surface roughness from significant wave height, parameterised from wind speed. We present results from simulations using modelled significant wave height instead, which accounts for the presence of sea ice and the effect of swell. The simulations use the NEMO ocean model coupled to the CICE sea ice model, with wave information from the ECWAM model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The new waves-in-ice module allows waves to propagate in sea ice and attenuates waves according to multiple scattering and non-elastic losses. It is found that in the simulations with wave mixing the mixed layer depth (MLD) under ice cover is reduced, since the parameterisation from wind speed overestimates wave height in the ice-covered regions. The MLD change, in turn, affects sea ice concentration and ice thickness. In the Arctic, reduced MLD in winter translates into increased ice thicknesses overall, with higher increases in the Western Arctic and decreases along the Siberian coast. In summer, shallowing of the mixed layer results in more heat accumulating in the surface ocean, increasing ice melting. In the Southern Ocean the meridional gradient in ice thickness and concentration is increased. We argue that coupling waves with sea ice - ocean models can reduce negative biases in sea ice cover, affecting the distribution of nutrients and, thus, biological productivity and ecosystems. This coupling will become more important in the future, when wave heights in a large part of the Arctic are expected to increase due to sea ice retreat and a larger wave fetch. Therefore, wave mixing constitutes a possible positive feedback mechanism.

Magnetospheric Multiscale Observations of an Ion Diffusion Region With Large Guide Field at the Magnetopause: Current System, Electron Heating, and Plasma Waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, M.; Berchem, J.; Walker, R. J.; El-Alaoui, M.; Goldstein, M. L.; Lapenta, G.; Deng, X.; Li, J.; Le Contel, O.; Graham, D. B.; Lavraud, B.; Paterson, W. R.; Giles, B. L.; Burch, J. L.; Torbert, R. B.; Russell, C. T.; Strangeway, R. J.; Zhao, C.; Ergun, R. E.; Lindqvist, P.-A.; Marklund, G.

2018-03-01

We report Magnetospheric Multiscale (MMS) observations of a reconnecting current sheet in the presence of a weak density asymmetry with large guide field at the dayside magnetopause. An ion diffusion region (IDR) was detected associated with this current sheet. Parallel current dominated over the perpendicular current in the IDR, as found in previous studies of component reconnection. Electrons were preferentially heated parallel to the magnetic field within the IDR. The heating was manifested as a flattop distribution below 400 eV. Two types of electromagnetic electron whistler waves were observed within the regions where electrons were heated. One type of whistler wave was associated with nonlinear structures in E|| with amplitudes up to 20 mV/m. The other type was not associated with any structures in E||. Poynting fluxes of these two types of whistler waves were directed away from the X-line. We suggest that the nonlinear evolution of the oblique whistler waves gave rise to the solitary structures in E||. There was a perpendicular super-Alfvénic outflow jet that was carried by magnetized electrons. Intense electrostatic lower hybrid drift waves were localized in the current sheet center and were probably driven by the super-Alfvénic electron jet, the velocity of which was approximately equal to the diamagnetic drift of demagnetized ions. Our observations suggest that the guide field significantly modified the structures (Hall electromagnetic fields and current system) and wave properties in the IDR.

A 1 kW-class multi-stage heat-driven thermoacoustic cryocooler system operating at liquefied natural gas temperature range

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, L. M.; Hu, J. Y.; Wu, Z. H.; Luo, E. C.; Xu, J. Y.; Bi, T. J.

2015-07-01

This article introduces a multi-stage heat-driven thermoacoustic cryocooler capable of reaching cooling capacity about 1 kW at liquefied natural gas temperature range without any moving mechanical parts. The cooling system consists of an acoustically resonant double-acing traveling wave thermoacoustic heat engine and three identical pulse tube coolers. Unlike other traditional traveling wave thermoacoustic heat engines, the acoustically resonant double-acting thermoacoustic heat engine is a closed-loop configuration consists of three identical thermoacoustic conversion units. Each pulse tube cooler is bypass driven by one thermoacoustic heat engine unit. The device is acoustically completely symmetric and therefore "self-matching" for efficient traveling-wave thermoacoustic conversion. In the experiments, with 7 MPa helium gas as working gas, when the heating temperature reaches 918 K, total cooling capacity of 0.88 kW at 110 K is obtained with a resonant frequency of about 55 Hz. When the heating temperature is 903 K, a maximum total cooling capacity at 130 K of 1.20 kW is achieved, with a thermal-to-cold exergy efficiency of 8%. Compared to previously developed heat-driven thermoacoustic cryocoolers, this device has higher thermal efficiency and higher power density. It shows a good prospect of application in the field of natural gas liquefaction and recondensation.

Heat Waves, Droughts, and Preferences for Environmental Policy

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Owen, Ann L.; Conover, Emily; Videras, Julio; Wu, Stephen

2012-01-01

Using data from a new household survey on environmental attitudes, behaviors, and policy preferences, we find that current weather conditions affect preferences for environmental regulation. Individuals who have recently experienced extreme weather (heat waves or droughts) are more likely to support laws to protect the environment. We find…

On the Possible Anticorrelation of Polar Mesospheric (Noctilucent) Clouds and Aurorae.

DTIC Science & Technology

1986-08-01

that sudden aurorally induced heating may generate these waves. Testud (1970) made some numerical computations which show that heating can create...Nitrogen from 50-120 km, II. D-region ion chemistry and the winter anomaly. J. Geophys. Res., 87, 7206. Testud , J., 1970: Gravity waves generated during

Dissection of Heat Tolerance Mechanisms in Maize

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Heat stress severely limits plant productivity and causes extensive economic loss to US agriculture. Understanding heat adaptation mechanisms in crop plants is crucial to the success of developing heat tolerant varieties. Heat waves (heat stress) often occur sporadically during the growing season o...

Heating of the solar chromosphere by ionization pumping

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lindsey, C. A.

1981-01-01

A new theory is proposed to explain the heating of the solar chromosphere, and possibly the corona, by the dissipation of hydrodynamic compression waves. The basis of the dissipative mechanism, here referred to as ionization pumping, is hysteresis caused by irreversible relaxation of the chromospheric medium to ionization equilibrium following pressure perturbations. In the middle chromosphere, where hydrogen is partially ionized, it is shown that ionization pumping will cause strong dissipation of waves whose periods are 200s or less. This could cause heating of the chromosphere sufficient to compensate for the radiative losses. The mechanism retains a high efficiency for waves of arbitrarily small amplitude and, thus, can be more efficient than shock dissipation for small perturbations in pressure. The formation of shocks therefore is not required for the dissipation of waves whose periods are several minutes or less.

Mortality during a Large-Scale Heat Wave by Place, Demographic Group, Internal and External Causes of Death, and Building Climate Zone.

PubMed

Joe, Lauren; Hoshiko, Sumi; Dobraca, Dina; Jackson, Rebecca; Smorodinsky, Svetlana; Smith, Daniel; Harnly, Martha

2016-03-09

Mortality increases during periods of elevated heat. Identification of vulnerable subgroups by demographics, causes of death, and geographic regions, including deaths occurring at home, is needed to inform public health prevention efforts. We calculated mortality relative risks (RRs) and excess deaths associated with a large-scale California heat wave in 2006, comparing deaths during the heat wave with reference days. For total (all-place) and at-home mortality, we examined risks by demographic factors, internal and external causes of death, and building climate zones. During the heat wave, 582 excess deaths occurred, a 5% increase over expected (RR = 1.05, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.03-1.08). Sixty-six percent of excess deaths were at home (RR = 1.12, CI 1.07-1.16). Total mortality risk was higher among those aged 35-44 years than ≥ 65, and among Hispanics than whites. Deaths from external causes increased more sharply (RR = 1.18, CI 1.10-1.27) than from internal causes (RR = 1.04, CI 1.02-1.07). Geographically, risk varied by building climate zone; the highest risks of at-home death occurred in the northernmost coastal zone (RR = 1.58, CI 1.01-2.48) and the southernmost zone of California's Central Valley (RR = 1.43, CI 1.21-1.68). Heat wave mortality risk varied across subpopulations, and some patterns of vulnerability differed from those previously identified. Public health efforts should also address at-home mortality, non-elderly adults, external causes, and at-risk geographic regions.

Analytic methods for design of wave cycles for wave rotor core engines

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Resler, Edwin L., Jr.; Mocsari, Jeffrey C.; Nalim, M. R.

1993-01-01

A procedure to design a preliminary wave rotor cycle for any application is presented. To complete a cycle with heat addition there are two separate but related design steps that must be followed. The 'wave' boundary conditions determine the allowable amount of heat added in any case and the ensuing wave pattern requires certain pressure discharge conditions to allow the process to be made cyclic. This procedure, when applied, gives a first estimate of the cycle performance and the necessary information for the next step in the design process, namely the application of a characteristic based or other appropriate detailed one dimensional wave calculation that locates the proper porting around the periphery of the wave rotor. Four examples of the design procedure are given to demonstrate its utility and generality. These examples also illustrate the large gains in performance that could be realized with the use of wave rotor enhanced propulsion cycles.

Grating formation by a high power radio wave in near-equator ionosphere

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Singh, Rohtash; Sharma, A. K.; Tripathi, V. K.

2011-11-15

The formation of a volume grating in the near-equator regions of ionosphere due to a high power radio wave is investigated. The radio wave, launched from a ground based transmitter, forms a standing wave pattern below the critical layer, heating the electrons in a space periodic manner. The thermal conduction along the magnetic lines of force inhibits the rise in electron temperature, limiting the efficacy of heating to within a latitude of few degrees around the equator. The space periodic electron partial pressure leads to ambipolar diffusion creating a space periodic density ripple with wave vector along the vertical. Suchmore » a volume grating is effective to cause strong reflection of radio waves at a frequency one order of magnitude higher than the maximum plasma frequency in the ionosphere. Linearly mode converted plasma wave could scatter even higher frequency radio waves.« less

The use of climate information to estimate future mortality from high ambient temperature: A systematic literature review

PubMed Central

Arbuthnott, Katherine; Kovats, Sari; Hajat, Shakoor; Falloon, Pete

2017-01-01

Background and objectives Heat related mortality is of great concern for public health, and estimates of future mortality under a warming climate are important for planning of resources and possible adaptation measures. Papers providing projections of future heat-related mortality were critically reviewed with a focus on the use of climate model data. Some best practice guidelines are proposed for future research. Methods The electronic databases Web of Science and PubMed/Medline were searched for papers containing a quantitative estimate of future heat-related mortality. The search was limited to papers published in English in peer-reviewed journals up to the end of March 2017. Reference lists of relevant papers and the citing literature were also examined. The wide range of locations studied and climate data used prevented a meta-analysis. Results A total of 608 articles were identified after removal of duplicate entries, of which 63 were found to contain a quantitative estimate of future mortality from hot days or heat waves. A wide range of mortality models and climate model data have been used to estimate future mortality. Temperatures in the climate simulations used in these studies were projected to increase. Consequently, all the papers indicated that mortality from high temperatures would increase under a warming climate. The spread in projections of future climate by models adds substantial uncertainty to estimates of future heat-related mortality. However, many studies either did not consider this source of uncertainty, or only used results from a small number of climate models. Other studies showed that uncertainty from changes in populations and demographics, and the methods for adaptation to warmer temperatures were at least as important as climate model uncertainty. Some inconsistencies in the use of climate data (for example, using global mean temperature changes instead of changes for specific locations) and interpretation of the effects on mortality were apparent. Some factors which have not been considered when estimating future mortality are summarised. Conclusions Most studies have used climate data generated using scenarios with medium and high emissions of greenhouse gases. More estimates of future mortality using climate information from the mitigation scenario RCP2.6 are needed, as this scenario is the only one under which the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to 2°C or less could be realised. Many of the methods used to combine modelled data with local climate observations are simplistic. Quantile-based methods might offer an improved approach, especially for temperatures at the ends of the distributions. The modelling of adaptation to warmer temperatures in mortality models is generally arbitrary and simplistic, and more research is needed to better quantify adaptation. Only a small number of studies included possible changes in population and demographics in their estimates of future mortality, meaning many estimates of mortality could be biased low. Uncertainty originating from establishing a mortality baseline, climate projections, adaptation and population changes is important and should be considered when estimating future mortality. PMID:28686743