Towards More Comprehensive Projections of Urban Heat-Related Mortality: Estimates for New York City Under Multiple Population, Adaptation, and Climate Scenarios

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Petkova, Elisaveta P.; Vink, Jan K.; Horton, Radley M.; Gasparrini, Antonio; Bader, Daniel A.; Francis, Joe D.; Kinney, Patrick L.

2016-01-01

High temperatures have substantial impacts on mortality and, with growing concerns about climate change, numerous studies have developed projections of future heat-related deaths around the world. Projections of temperature-related mortality are often limited by insufficient information necessary to formulate hypotheses about population sensitivity to high temperatures and future demographics. This study has derived projections of temperature-related mortality in New York City by taking into account future patterns of adaptation or demographic change, both of which can have profound influences on future health burdens. We adopt a novel approach to modeling heat adaptation by incorporating an analysis of the observed population response to heat in New York City over the course of eight decades. This approach projects heat-related mortality until the end of the 21st century based on observed trends in adaptation over a substantial portion of the 20th century. In addition, we incorporate a range of new scenarios for population change until the end of the 21st century. We then estimate future heat-related deaths in New York City by combining the changing temperature-mortality relationship and population scenarios with downscaled temperature projections from the 33 global climate models (GCMs) and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs).The median number of projected annual heat-related deaths across the 33 GCMs varied greatly by RCP and adaptation and population change scenario, ranging from 167 to 3331 in the 2080s compared to 638 heat-related deaths annually between 2000 and 2006.These findings provide a more complete picture of the range of potential future heat-related mortality risks across the 21st century in New York, and highlight the importance of both demographic change and adaptation responses in modifying future risks.

TEMPERATURE SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT USING REGRESSION METHODS

EPA Science Inventory

A method of developing scenarios of future temperature conditions resulting from climatic change is presented. he method is straightforward and can be used to provide information about daily temperature variations and diurnal ranges, monthly average high, and low temperatures, an...

Photosynthetic temperature responses of tree species in Rwanda: evidence of pronounced negative effects of high temperature in montane rainforest climax species

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vårhammar, Angelica; Wallin, Göran; McLean, Christopher M.; Dusenge, Mirindi Eric; Medlyn, Belinda E.; Hasper, Thomas B.; Nsabimana, Donat; Uddling, Johan

2015-04-01

The sensitivity of photosynthetic metabolism to temperature has been identified as a key uncertainty for projecting the magnitude of the terrestrial feedback on future climate change. While temperature responses of photosynthetic capacities have been comparatively well investigated in temperate species, the responses of tropical tree species remain unexplored. We compared the responses of seedlings of native cold-adapted tropical montane rainforest tree species to exotic warm-adapted plantation species, all growing in an intermediate temperature common garden in Rwanda. Leaf gas exchange responses to CO2 at different temperatures (20 - 40 C) were used to assess the temperature responses of biochemical photosynthetic capacities. Analyses revealed a lower optimum temperature for photosynthetic electron transport rates than for Rubisco carboxylation rates, along with lower electron transport optima in the native cold-adapted than in the exotic warm-adapted species. The photosynthetic optimum temperatures were generally exceeded by daytime peak leaf temperatures, in particular in the native montane rainforest climax species. This study thus provides evidence of pronounced negative effects of high temperature in tropical trees and indicates high susceptibility of montane rainforest climax species to future global warming. (Reference: New Phytologist, in press)

High-temperature electronics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Seng, Gary T.

1987-01-01

In recent years, there was a growing need for electronics capable of sustained high-temperature operation for aerospace propulsion system instrumentation, control and condition monitoring, and integrated sensors. The desired operating temperature in some applications exceeds 600 C, which is well beyond the capability of currently available semiconductor devices. Silicon carbide displays a number of properties which make it very attractive as a semiconductor material, one of which is the ability to retain its electronic integrity at temperatures well above 600 C. An IR-100 award was presented to NASA Lewis in 1983 for developing a chemical vapor deposition process to grow single crystals of this material on standard silicon wafers. Silicon carbide devices were demonstrated above 400 C, but much work remains in the areas of crystal growth, characterization, and device fabrication before the full potential of silicon carbide can be realized. The presentation will conclude with current and future high-temperature electronics program plans. Although the development of silicon carbide falls into the category of high-risk research, the future looks promising, and the potential payoffs are tremendous.

Nonlinear Constitutive Relations for High Temperature Applications, 1986

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1988-01-01

The purpose of the symposium was to review the state-of-the-art in nonlinear constitutive modeling of high temperature materials for aeronautics applications and to identify the need for future research and development efforts in this area. Through this symposium, it was recognized that considerable research efforts are urgently needed in the development of nonlinear constitutive relations for high temperature applications. In the aerospace industry this need is further prompted by recent advances in high temperature materials technology and new demands on material and component performance.

Parental Effect of Long Acclimatization on Thermal Tolerance of Juvenile Sea Cucumber Apostichopus japonicus

PubMed Central

Dong, Yun-wei

2015-01-01

To evaluate the thermal resistance of marine invertebrates to elevated temperatures under scenarios of future climate change, it is crucial to understand parental effect of long acclimatization on thermal tolerance of offspring. To test whether there is parental effect of long acclimatization, adult sea cucumbers (Apostichopus japonicus) from the same broodstock were transplanted southward and acclimatized at high temperature in field mesocosms. Four groups of juvenile sea cucumbers whose parents experienced different durations of high temperature acclimatization were established. Upper thermal limits, oxygen consumption and levels of heat shock protein mRNA of juveniles was determined to compare thermal tolerance of individuals from different groups. Juvenile sea cucumbers whose parents experienced high temperature could acquire high thermal resistance. With the increase of parental exposure duration to high temperature, offspring became less sensitive to high temperature, as indicated by higher upper thermal limits (LT50), less seasonal variations of oxygen consumption, and stable oxygen consumption rates between chronic and acute thermal stress. The relatively high levels of constitutive expression of heat-shock proteins should contribute to the high thermal tolerance. Together, these results indicated that the existence of a parental effect of long acclimatization would increase thermal tolerance of juveniles and change the thermal sensitivity of sea cucumber to future climate change. PMID:26580550

Parental Effect of Long Acclimatization on Thermal Tolerance of Juvenile Sea Cucumber Apostichopus japonicus.

PubMed

Wang, Qing-Lin; Yu, Shan-Shan; Dong, Yun-Wei

2015-01-01

To evaluate the thermal resistance of marine invertebrates to elevated temperatures under scenarios of future climate change, it is crucial to understand parental effect of long acclimatization on thermal tolerance of offspring. To test whether there is parental effect of long acclimatization, adult sea cucumbers (Apostichopus japonicus) from the same broodstock were transplanted southward and acclimatized at high temperature in field mesocosms. Four groups of juvenile sea cucumbers whose parents experienced different durations of high temperature acclimatization were established. Upper thermal limits, oxygen consumption and levels of heat shock protein mRNA of juveniles was determined to compare thermal tolerance of individuals from different groups. Juvenile sea cucumbers whose parents experienced high temperature could acquire high thermal resistance. With the increase of parental exposure duration to high temperature, offspring became less sensitive to high temperature, as indicated by higher upper thermal limits (LT50), less seasonal variations of oxygen consumption, and stable oxygen consumption rates between chronic and acute thermal stress. The relatively high levels of constitutive expression of heat-shock proteins should contribute to the high thermal tolerance. Together, these results indicated that the existence of a parental effect of long acclimatization would increase thermal tolerance of juveniles and change the thermal sensitivity of sea cucumber to future climate change.

Ultrasonic High-Temperature Sensors: Past Experiments and Prospects for Future Use

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laurie, M.; Magallon, D.; Rempe, J.; Wilkins, C.; Pierre, J.; Marquié, C.; Eymery, S.; Morice, R.

2010-09-01

Ultrasonic thermometry sensors (UTS) have been intensively studied in the past to measure temperatures from 2080 K to 3380 K. This sensor, which uses the temperature dependence of the acoustic velocity in materials, was developed for experiments in extreme environments. Its major advantages, which are (a) capability of measuring a temperature profile from multiple sensors on a single probe and (b) measurement near the sensor material melting point, can be of great interest when dealing with on-line monitoring of high-temperature safety tests. Ultrasonic techniques were successfully applied in several severe accident related experiments. With new developments of alternative materials, this instrument may be used in a wide range of experimental areas where robustness and compactness are required. Long-term irradiation experiments of nuclear fuel to extremely high burn-ups could benefit from this previous experience. After an overview of UTS technology, this article summarizes experimental work performed to improve the reliability of these sensors. The various designs, advantages, and drawbacks are outlined and future prospects for long-term high-temperature irradiation experiments are discussed.

High-Resolution Dynamical Downscaling Ensemble Projections of Future Extreme Temperature Distributions for the United States

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zobel, Zachary; Wang, Jiali; Wuebbles, Donald J.

The aim of this study is to examine projections of extreme temperatures over the continental United States (CONUS) for the 21st century using an ensemble of high spatial resolution dynamically downscaled model simulations with different boundary conditions. The downscaling uses the Weather Research and Forecast model at a spatial resolution of 12 km along with outputs from three different Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 global climate models that provide boundary con- ditions under two different future greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration trajectories. The results from two decadal-length time slices (2045–2054 and 2085–2094) are compared with a historical decade (1995–2004). Probabilitymore » density functions of daily maximum/minimum temperatures are analyzed over seven climatologically cohesive regions of the CONUS. The impacts of different boundary conditions as well as future GHG concentrations on extreme events such as heat waves and days with temperature higher than 95°F are also investigated. The results show that the intensity of extreme warm temperature in future summer is significantly increased, while the frequency of extreme cold temperature in future winter decreases. The distribution of summer daily maximum temperature experiences a significant warm-side shift and increased variability, while the distribution of winter daily minimum temperature is projected to have a less significant warm-side shift with decreased variability. Finally, using "business-as-usual" scenario, 5-day heat waves are projected to occur at least 5–10 times per year in most CONUS and ≥ 95°F days will increase by 1–2 months by the end of the century.« less

High-Resolution Dynamical Downscaling Ensemble Projections of Future Extreme Temperature Distributions for the United States

DOE PAGES

Zobel, Zachary; Wang, Jiali; Wuebbles, Donald J.; ...

2017-11-20

The aim of this study is to examine projections of extreme temperatures over the continental United States (CONUS) for the 21st century using an ensemble of high spatial resolution dynamically downscaled model simulations with different boundary conditions. The downscaling uses the Weather Research and Forecast model at a spatial resolution of 12 km along with outputs from three different Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 global climate models that provide boundary con- ditions under two different future greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration trajectories. The results from two decadal-length time slices (2045–2054 and 2085–2094) are compared with a historical decade (1995–2004). Probabilitymore » density functions of daily maximum/minimum temperatures are analyzed over seven climatologically cohesive regions of the CONUS. The impacts of different boundary conditions as well as future GHG concentrations on extreme events such as heat waves and days with temperature higher than 95°F are also investigated. The results show that the intensity of extreme warm temperature in future summer is significantly increased, while the frequency of extreme cold temperature in future winter decreases. The distribution of summer daily maximum temperature experiences a significant warm-side shift and increased variability, while the distribution of winter daily minimum temperature is projected to have a less significant warm-side shift with decreased variability. Finally, using "business-as-usual" scenario, 5-day heat waves are projected to occur at least 5–10 times per year in most CONUS and ≥ 95°F days will increase by 1–2 months by the end of the century.« less

Vibrational Properties of Zr(Hf)B2-SiC UHTC Composites by Micro-Raman Spectroscopy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Donohue, M.; Carpenter, C.; Orlovskaya, N.

Development and characterization of novel materials that are lightweight, possess high mechanical properties, can withstand high temperatures, and provide superior thermal properties are crucial to meet the future demands of Air Force, Army, Navy, Missile Defense Agency (MDA), and other military and space agencies. Materials for such applications (hypersonic air-breathing vehicles, including Single-To-Orbit vehicles and Two-Stage-To-Orbit aerospace planes, fully reusable space transport vehicles, hypersonic cruise missiles) experience severe aero-thermal loads with nose-cone and nozzle temperatures in excess of 2,000°F and 4,000°F, respectively. High G acceleration is also a problem. Even the most advanced materials, such as Ti, Inconel X, carbon-carbon, and silicon carbide based composites cannot withstand the excessive heat generated, especially during re-entry, and they cannot meet the guidelines for future high performance aircrafts, kinetic energy interceptors and reusable space planes. Thus, the demand for low-cost, light weight high temperature materials for thermal protection systems (TPS) is expected to be on the significant rise in the near future.

Physics perspectives of heavy-ion collisions at very high energy

DOE PAGES

Chang, Ning-bo; Cao, ShanShan; Chen, Bao-yi; ...

2016-01-15

We expect heavy-ion collisions at very high colliding energies to produce a quark-gluon plasma (QGP) at the highest temperature obtainable in a laboratory setting. Experimental studies of these reactions can provide an unprecedented range of information on properties of the QGP at high temperatures. We also report theoretical investigations of the physics perspectives of heavy-ion collisions at a future high-energy collider. These include initial parton production, collective expansion of the dense medium, jet quenching, heavy-quark transport, dissociation and regeneration of quarkonia, photon and dilepton production. Here, we illustrate the potential of future experimental studies of the initial particle production andmore » formation of QGP at the highest temperature to provide constraints on properties of strongly interaction matter.« less

Testing of Sapphire Optical Fiber and Sensors in Intense Radiation Fields When Subjected to Very High Temperatures

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Blue, Thomas; Windl, Wolfgang

The primary objective of this project was to determine the optical attenuation and signal degradation of sapphire optical fibers & sensors (temperature & strain), in-situ, operating at temperatures up to 1500°C during reactor irradiation through experiments and modeling. The results will determine the feasibility of extending sapphire optical fiber-based instrumentation to extremely high temperature radiation environments. This research will pave the way for future testing of sapphire optical fibers and fiber-based sensors under conditions expected in advanced high temperature reactors.

Improving High-Temperature Measurements in Nuclear Reactors with Mo/Nb Thermocouples

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Villard, J.-F.; Fourrez, S.; Fourmentel, D.; Legrand, A.

2008-10-01

Many irradiation experiments performed in research reactors are used to assess the effects of nuclear radiations on material or fuel sample properties, and are therefore a crucial stage in most qualification and innovation studies regarding nuclear technologies. However, monitoring these experiments requires accurate and reliable instrumentation. Among all measurement systems implemented in irradiation devices, temperature—and more particularly high-temperature (above 1000°C)—is a major parameter for future experiments related, for example, to the Generation IV International Forum (GIF) Program or the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) Project. In this context, the French Commissariat à l’Energie Atomique (CEA) develops and qualifies innovative in-pile instrumentation for its irradiation experiments in current and future research reactors. Logically, a significant part of these research and development programs concerns the improvement of in-pile high-temperature measurements. This article describes the development and qualification of innovative high-temperature thermocouples specifically designed for in-pile applications. This key study has been achieved with technical contributions from the Thermocoax Company. This new kind of thermocouple is based on molybdenum and niobium thermoelements, which remain nearly unchanged by thermal neutron flux even under harsh nuclear environments, whereas typical high-temperature thermocouples such as Type C or Type S are altered by significant drifts caused by material transmutations under the same conditions. This improvement has a significant impact on the temperature measurement capabilities for future irradiation experiments. Details of the successive stages of this development are given, including the results of prototype qualification tests and the manufacturing process.

The use of climate information to estimate future mortality from high ambient temperature: A systematic literature review.

PubMed

Sanderson, Michael; Arbuthnott, Katherine; Kovats, Sari; Hajat, Shakoor; Falloon, Pete

2017-01-01

Heat related mortality is of great concern for public health, and estimates of future mortality under a warming climate are important for planning of resources and possible adaptation measures. Papers providing projections of future heat-related mortality were critically reviewed with a focus on the use of climate model data. Some best practice guidelines are proposed for future research. The electronic databases Web of Science and PubMed/Medline were searched for papers containing a quantitative estimate of future heat-related mortality. The search was limited to papers published in English in peer-reviewed journals up to the end of March 2017. Reference lists of relevant papers and the citing literature were also examined. The wide range of locations studied and climate data used prevented a meta-analysis. A total of 608 articles were identified after removal of duplicate entries, of which 63 were found to contain a quantitative estimate of future mortality from hot days or heat waves. A wide range of mortality models and climate model data have been used to estimate future mortality. Temperatures in the climate simulations used in these studies were projected to increase. Consequently, all the papers indicated that mortality from high temperatures would increase under a warming climate. The spread in projections of future climate by models adds substantial uncertainty to estimates of future heat-related mortality. However, many studies either did not consider this source of uncertainty, or only used results from a small number of climate models. Other studies showed that uncertainty from changes in populations and demographics, and the methods for adaptation to warmer temperatures were at least as important as climate model uncertainty. Some inconsistencies in the use of climate data (for example, using global mean temperature changes instead of changes for specific locations) and interpretation of the effects on mortality were apparent. Some factors which have not been considered when estimating future mortality are summarised. Most studies have used climate data generated using scenarios with medium and high emissions of greenhouse gases. More estimates of future mortality using climate information from the mitigation scenario RCP2.6 are needed, as this scenario is the only one under which the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to 2°C or less could be realised. Many of the methods used to combine modelled data with local climate observations are simplistic. Quantile-based methods might offer an improved approach, especially for temperatures at the ends of the distributions. The modelling of adaptation to warmer temperatures in mortality models is generally arbitrary and simplistic, and more research is needed to better quantify adaptation. Only a small number of studies included possible changes in population and demographics in their estimates of future mortality, meaning many estimates of mortality could be biased low. Uncertainty originating from establishing a mortality baseline, climate projections, adaptation and population changes is important and should be considered when estimating future mortality.

Photosynthetic temperature responses of tree species in Rwanda: evidence of pronounced negative effects of high temperature in montane rainforest climax species.

PubMed

Vårhammar, Angelica; Wallin, Göran; McLean, Christopher M; Dusenge, Mirindi Eric; Medlyn, Belinda E; Hasper, Thomas B; Nsabimana, Donat; Uddling, Johan

2015-05-01

The sensitivity of photosynthetic metabolism to temperature has been identified as a key uncertainty for projecting the magnitude of the terrestrial feedback on future climate change. While temperature responses of photosynthetic capacities have been comparatively well investigated in temperate species, the responses of tropical tree species remain unexplored. We compared the responses of seedlings of native cold-adapted tropical montane rainforest tree species with those of exotic warm-adapted plantation species, all growing in an intermediate temperature common garden in Rwanda. Leaf gas exchange responses to carbon dioxide (CO2 ) at different temperatures (20-40°C) were used to assess the temperature responses of biochemical photosynthetic capacities. Analyses revealed a lower optimum temperature for photosynthetic electron transport rates than for Rubisco carboxylation rates, along with lower electron transport optima in the native cold-adapted than in the exotic warm-adapted species. The photosynthetic optimum temperatures were generally exceeded by daytime peak leaf temperatures, in particular in the native montane rainforest climax species. This study thus provides evidence of pronounced negative effects of high temperature in tropical trees and indicates high susceptibility of montane rainforest climax species to future global warming. © 2015 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2015 New Phytologist Trust.

Adaptation potential of naturally ventilated barns to high temperature extremes: The OptiBarn project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Menz, Christoph

2016-04-01

Climate change interferes with various aspects of the socio-economic system. One important aspect is its influence on animal husbandry, especially dairy faming. Dairy cows are usually kept in naturally ventilated barns (NVBs) which are particular vulnerable to extreme events due to their low adaptation capabilities. An effective adaptation to high outdoor temperatures for example, is only possible under certain wind and humidity conditions. High temperature extremes are expected to increase in number and strength under climate change. To assess the impact of this change on NVBs and dairy cows also the changes in wind and humidity needs to be considered. Hence we need to consider the multivariate structure of future temperature extremes. The OptiBarn project aims to develop sustainable adaptation strategies for dairy housings under climate change for Europe, by considering the multivariate structure of high temperature extremes. In a first step we identify various multivariate high temperature extremes for three core regions in Europe. With respect to dairy cows in NVBs we will focus on the wind and humidity field during high temperature events. In a second step we will use the CORDEX-EUR-11 ensemble to evaluate the capability of the RCMs to model such events and assess their future change potential. By transferring the outdoor conditions to indoor climate and animal wellbeing the results of this assessment can be used to develop technical, architectural and animal specific adaptation strategies for high temperature extremes.

High-Temperature Optical Window Design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Roeloffs, Norman; Taranto, Nick

1995-01-01

A high-temperature optical window is essential to the optical diagnostics of high-temperature combustion rigs. Laser Doppler velocimetry, schlieren photography, light sheet visualization, and laser-induced fluorescence spectroscopy are a few of the tests that require optically clear access to the combustor flow stream. A design was developed for a high-temperature window that could withstand the severe environment of the NASA Lewis 3200 F Lean Premixed Prevaporized (LPP) Flame Tube Test Rig. The development of this design was both time consuming and costly. This report documents the design process and the lessons learned, in an effort to reduce the cost of developing future designs for high-temperature optical windows.

Projected regional changes in the characteristics of dry and moist heat waves in the United States derived from downscaled CMIP5 models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schoof, J. T.

2017-12-01

Extreme temperatures affect society in multiple ways, but the impacts are often different depending on the concurrent humidity. For example, the greatest impacts on human morbidity and mortality result when the temperature and humidity are both elevated. Conversely, high temperatures coupled with low humidity often lead to agricultural impacts resulting in lower yields. Despite the importance of humidity in determining heat wave impacts, relatively few students of future temperature extremes have also considered possible changes in humidity. In a recent study, we investigated recent historical changes in the frequency and intensity and low humidity and high humidity extreme temperature events using a framework based on isobaric equivalent temperature. Here, we extend this approach to climate projections from CMIP5 models to explore possible regional changes in extreme heat characteristics. After using quantile mapping to bias correct and downscale the CMIP5 model outputs, we analyze results from two future periods (2031-2055 and 2061-2085) and two representative concentration pathways, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, corresponding to moderate and high levels of radiative forcing from greenhouse gases. For each of seven US regions, we consider changes in extreme temperature frequency, changes in the proportion of extreme temperature days characterized by high humidity, and changes in the magnitude of temperature and humidity on extreme temperature days.

Seal Technology for Hypersonic Vehicle and Propulsion: An Overview

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Steinetz, Bruce M.

2008-01-01

Hypersonic vehicles and propulsion systems pose an extraordinary challenge for structures and materials. Airframes and engines require lightweight, high-temperature materials and structural configurations that can withstand the extreme environment of hypersonic flight. Some of the challenges posed include very high temperatures, heating of the whole vehicle, steady-state and transient localized heating from shock waves, high aerodynamic loads, high fluctuating pressure loads, potential for severe flutter, vibration, and acoustic loads and erosion. Correspondingly high temperature seals are required to meet these aggressive requirements. This presentation reviews relevant seal technology for both heritage (e.g. Space Shuttle, X-15, and X-38) vehicles and presents several seal case studies aimed at providing lessons learned for future hypersonic vehicle seal development. This presentation also reviews seal technology developed for the National Aerospace Plane propulsion systems and presents several seal case studies aimed at providing lessons learned for future hypersonic propulsion seal development.

Environmental Barrier Coatings for Turbine Engines: A Design and Performance Perspective

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zhu, Dongming; Fox, Dennis S.; Ghosn, Louis; Smialek, James L.; Miller, Robert A.

2009-01-01

Ceramic thermal and environmental barrier coatings (TEBC) for SiC-based ceramics will play an increasingly important role in future gas turbine engines because of their ability to effectively protect the engine components and further raise engine temperatures. However, the coating long-term durability remains a major concern with the ever-increasing temperature, strength and stability requirements in engine high heat-flux combustion environments, especially for highly-loaded rotating turbine components. Advanced TEBC systems, including nano-composite based HfO2-aluminosilicate and rare earth silicate coatings are being developed and tested for higher temperature capable SiC/SiC ceramic matrix composite (CMC) turbine blade applications. This paper will emphasize coating composite and multilayer design approach and the resulting performance and durability in simulated engine high heat-flux, high stress and high pressure combustion environments. The advances in the environmental barrier coating development showed promise for future rotating CMC blade applications.

High temperature and temperature variation undermine future disease susceptibility in a population of the invasive garden ant Lasius neglectus.

PubMed

Pamminger, Tobias; Steier, Thomas; Tragust, Simon

2016-06-01

Environmental temperature and temperature variation can have strong effects on the outcome of host-parasite interactions. Whilst such effects have been reported for different host systems, long-term consequences of pre-infection temperatures on host susceptibility and immunity remain understudied. Here, we show that experiencing both a biologically relevant increase in temperature and temperature variation undermines future disease susceptibility of the invasive garden ant Lasius neglectus when challenged with a pathogen under a constant temperature regime. In light of the economic and ecological importance of many social insects, our results emphasise the necessity to take the hosts' temperature history into account when studying host-parasite interactions under both natural and laboratory conditions, especially in the face of global change.

High temperature and temperature variation undermine future disease susceptibility in a population of the invasive garden ant Lasius neglectus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pamminger, Tobias; Steier, Thomas; Tragust, Simon

2016-06-01

Environmental temperature and temperature variation can have strong effects on the outcome of host-parasite interactions. Whilst such effects have been reported for different host systems, long-term consequences of pre-infection temperatures on host susceptibility and immunity remain understudied. Here, we show that experiencing both a biologically relevant increase in temperature and temperature variation undermines future disease susceptibility of the invasive garden ant Lasius neglectus when challenged with a pathogen under a constant temperature regime. In light of the economic and ecological importance of many social insects, our results emphasise the necessity to take the hosts' temperature history into account when studying host-parasite interactions under both natural and laboratory conditions, especially in the face of global change.

A modeling tool to evaluate regional coral reef responses to changes in climate and ocean chemistry

USGS Publications Warehouse

Buddemeier, R.W.; Jokiel, P.L.; Zimmerman, K.M.; Lane, D.R.; Carey, J.M.; Bohling, Geoffrey C.; Martinich, J.A.

2008-01-01

We developed a spreadsheet-based model for the use of managers, conservationists, and biologists for projecting the effects of climate change on coral reefs at local-to-regional scales. The COMBO (Coral Mortality and Bleaching Output) model calculates the impacts to coral reefs from changes in average SST and CO2 concentrations, and from high temperature mortality (bleaching) events. The model uses a probabilistic assessment of the frequency of high temperature events under a future climate to address scientific uncertainties about potential adverse effects. COMBO offers data libraries and default factors for three selected regions (Hawai'i, Great Barrier Reef, and Caribbean), but it is structured with user-selectable parameter values and data input options, making possible modifications to reflect local conditions or to incorporate local expertise. Preliminary results from sensitivity analyses and simulation examples for Hawai'i demonstrate the relative importance of high temperature events, increased average temperature, and increased CO2 concentration on the future status of coral reefs; Illustrate significant interactions among variables; and allow comparisons of past environmental history with future predictions. ?? 2008, by the American Society of Limnology and Oceanugraphy, Inc.

Development of Electrolytes for Low Temperature Rechargable Lithium-ion Cells

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smart, M. C.; Huang, C. K.; Ratnakumar, B. V.; Surampudi, S.

1996-01-01

NASA's future missions aimed at exploring Mars require high specific energy bateries that can be operated at temperatures of -20(deg)C and below...This paper maily deals with the results of our work to develop advanced low temperature electrolytes.

Development and Property Evaluation of Selected HfO2-Silicon and Rare Earth-Silicon Based Bond Coats and Environmental Barrier Coating Systems for SiC/SiC Ceramic Matrix Composites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zhu, Dongming

2016-01-01

Ceramic environmental barrier coatings (EBC) and SiC/SiC ceramic matrix composites (CMCs) will play a crucial role in future aircraft propulsion systems because of their ability to significantly increase engine operating temperatures, improve component durability, reduce engine weight and cooling requirements. Advanced EBC systems for SiC/SiC CMC turbine and combustor hot section components are currently being developed to meet future turbine engine emission and performance goals. One of the significant material development challenges for the high temperature CMC components is to develop prime-reliant, high strength and high temperature capable environmental barrier coating bond coat systems, since the current silicon bond coat cannot meet the advanced EBC-CMC temperature and stability requirements. In this paper, advanced NASA HfO2-Si and rare earth Si based EBC bond coat EBC systems for SiC/SiC CMC combustor and turbine airfoil applications are investigated. High temperature properties of the advanced EBC systems, including the strength, fracture toughness, creep and oxidation resistance have been studied and summarized. The advanced NASA EBC systems showed some promise to achieve 1500C temperature capability, helping enable next generation turbine engines with significantly improved engine component temperature capability and durability.

High-temperature optical fiber sensors for characterization of advanced composite aerospace materials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wavering, Thomas A.; Greene, Jonathan A.; Meller, Scott A.; Bailey, Timothy A.; Kozikowski, Carrie L.; Lenahan, Shannon M.; Murphy, Kent A.; Camden, Michael P.; Simmons, Larry W.

1999-01-01

Optical fiber sensors have numerous advantages over conventional sensing technologies. One such advantage is that optical fiber sensors can operate in high temperature environments. While most conventional electrical-based sensors do not operate reliably over 300 degrees C, fused silica based optical fiber sensors can survive up to 900 degrees C, and sapphire based optical fiber sensors can survive up to 2000 degrees C. Using both fused silica and sapphire technologies, we present result for high temperature strain, pressure, and temperature sensors using Extrinsic Fabry-Perot INterferometric-based and Bragg grating sensors. High temperature strain and temperature sensors were used to conduct fatigue testing of composite coupons at 600 degrees C. The results from these specific high temperature applications are presented along with future applications and directions for these sensors.

Past and future changes in climate and hydrological indicators in the US Northeast

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hayhoe, K.; Wake, C.P.; Huntington, T.G.; Luo, L.; Schwartz, M.D.; Sheffield, J.; Wood, E.; Anderson, B.; Bradbury, J.; DeGaetano, A.; Troy, T.J.; Wolfe, D.

2007-01-01

To assess the influence of global climate change at the regional scale, we examine past and future changes in key climate, hydrological, and biophysical indicators across the US Northeast (NE). We first consider the extent to which simulations of twentieth century climate from nine atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) are able to reproduce observed changes in these indicators. We then evaluate projected future trends in primary climate characteristics and indicators of change, including seasonal temperatures, rainfall and drought, snow cover, soil moisture, streamflow, and changes in biometeorological indicators that depend on threshold or accumulated temperatures such as growing season, frost days, and Spring Indices (SI). Changes in indicators for which temperature-related signals have already been observed (seasonal warming patterns, advances in high-spring streamflow, decreases in snow depth, extended growing seasons, earlier bloom dates) are generally reproduced by past model simulations and are projected to continue in the future. Other indicators for which trends have not yet been observed also show projected future changes consistent with a warmer climate (shrinking snow cover, more frequent droughts, and extended low-flow periods in summer). The magnitude of temperature-driven trends in the future are generally projected to be higher under the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) mid-high (A2) and higher (A1FI) emissions scenarios than under the lower (B1) scenario. These results provide confidence regarding the direction of many regional climate trends, and highlight the fundamental role of future emissions in determining the potential magnitude of changes we can expect over the coming century. ?? Springer-Verlag 2006.

Impact Assessment of Global Temperature Perturbations on Urban and Regional Ozone Levels in South Texas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biswas, Jhumoor; John, Kuruvilla; Farooqui, Zuber

The recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report predicts significant temperature increases over the century which constitutes the pulse of climate variability in a region. A modeling study was performed to identify the potential impact of temperature perturbations on tropospheric ozone concentrations in South Texas. A future case modeling scenario which incorporates appropriate emission reduction strategies without accounting for climatic inconsistencies was used in this study. The photochemical modeling was undertaken for a high ozone episode of 13-20 September 1999, and a future modeling scenario was projected for ozone episode days in 2007 utilizing the meteorological conditions prevalent in the base year. The temperatures were increased uniformly throughout the simulation domain and through the vertical layers by 2°C, 3°C, 4°C, 5°C, and 6°C, respectively in the future year modeling case. These temperature perturbations represented the outcome of extreme climate change within the study region. Significantly large changes in peak ozone concentrations were predicted by the photochemical model. For the 6°C temperature perturbation, the greatest amplification in the maximum 8-h ozone concentrations within urban areas of the modeling domain was approximately 12 ppb. In addition, transboundary flux from major industrialized urban areas played a major role in supplementing the high ozone concentrations during the perturbed temperature scenarios. The Unites States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) is currently proposing stricter 8-h ozone standards. The effect of temperature perturbations on ozone exceedances based on current and potential stringent future National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) was also studied. Temperatures had an appreciable spatial impact on the 8-h ozone exceedances with a considerable increase in spatial area exceeding the NAAQS for the 8-h ozone levels within the study region for each successive augmentation in temperature. The number of exceedances of the 8-h ozone standard increased significantly with each degree rise of temperature with the problem becoming even more acute in light of stricter future proposed standards of ozone.

Recent and future warm extreme events and high-mountain slope stability.

PubMed

Huggel, C; Salzmann, N; Allen, S; Caplan-Auerbach, J; Fischer, L; Haeberli, W; Larsen, C; Schneider, D; Wessels, R

2010-05-28

The number of large slope failures in some high-mountain regions such as the European Alps has increased during the past two to three decades. There is concern that recent climate change is driving this increase in slope failures, thus possibly further exacerbating the hazard in the future. Although the effects of a gradual temperature rise on glaciers and permafrost have been extensively studied, the impacts of short-term, unusually warm temperature increases on slope stability in high mountains remain largely unexplored. We describe several large slope failures in rock and ice in recent years in Alaska, New Zealand and the European Alps, and analyse weather patterns in the days and weeks before the failures. Although we did not find one general temperature pattern, all the failures were preceded by unusually warm periods; some happened immediately after temperatures suddenly dropped to freezing. We assessed the frequency of warm extremes in the future by analysing eight regional climate models from the recently completed European Union programme ENSEMBLES for the central Swiss Alps. The models show an increase in the higher frequency of high-temperature events for the period 2001-2050 compared with a 1951-2000 reference period. Warm events lasting 5, 10 and 30 days are projected to increase by about 1.5-4 times by 2050 and in some models by up to 10 times. Warm extremes can trigger large landslides in temperature-sensitive high mountains by enhancing the production of water by melt of snow and ice, and by rapid thaw. Although these processes reduce slope strength, they must be considered within the local geological, glaciological and topographic context of a slope.

The use of climate information to estimate future mortality from high ambient temperature: A systematic literature review

PubMed Central

Arbuthnott, Katherine; Kovats, Sari; Hajat, Shakoor; Falloon, Pete

2017-01-01

Background and objectives Heat related mortality is of great concern for public health, and estimates of future mortality under a warming climate are important for planning of resources and possible adaptation measures. Papers providing projections of future heat-related mortality were critically reviewed with a focus on the use of climate model data. Some best practice guidelines are proposed for future research. Methods The electronic databases Web of Science and PubMed/Medline were searched for papers containing a quantitative estimate of future heat-related mortality. The search was limited to papers published in English in peer-reviewed journals up to the end of March 2017. Reference lists of relevant papers and the citing literature were also examined. The wide range of locations studied and climate data used prevented a meta-analysis. Results A total of 608 articles were identified after removal of duplicate entries, of which 63 were found to contain a quantitative estimate of future mortality from hot days or heat waves. A wide range of mortality models and climate model data have been used to estimate future mortality. Temperatures in the climate simulations used in these studies were projected to increase. Consequently, all the papers indicated that mortality from high temperatures would increase under a warming climate. The spread in projections of future climate by models adds substantial uncertainty to estimates of future heat-related mortality. However, many studies either did not consider this source of uncertainty, or only used results from a small number of climate models. Other studies showed that uncertainty from changes in populations and demographics, and the methods for adaptation to warmer temperatures were at least as important as climate model uncertainty. Some inconsistencies in the use of climate data (for example, using global mean temperature changes instead of changes for specific locations) and interpretation of the effects on mortality were apparent. Some factors which have not been considered when estimating future mortality are summarised. Conclusions Most studies have used climate data generated using scenarios with medium and high emissions of greenhouse gases. More estimates of future mortality using climate information from the mitigation scenario RCP2.6 are needed, as this scenario is the only one under which the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to 2°C or less could be realised. Many of the methods used to combine modelled data with local climate observations are simplistic. Quantile-based methods might offer an improved approach, especially for temperatures at the ends of the distributions. The modelling of adaptation to warmer temperatures in mortality models is generally arbitrary and simplistic, and more research is needed to better quantify adaptation. Only a small number of studies included possible changes in population and demographics in their estimates of future mortality, meaning many estimates of mortality could be biased low. Uncertainty originating from establishing a mortality baseline, climate projections, adaptation and population changes is important and should be considered when estimating future mortality. PMID:28686743

Performance characterization of Lithium-ion cells possessing carbon-carbon composite-based anodes capable of operating over a wide temperature range

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smart, M. C.; Hossain, S.; Ratnakumar, B. V.; Loutfy, R.; Whitcanack, L. D.; Chin, K. B.; Davies, E. D.; Surampudi, S.; Narayanan, S. R.

2004-01-01

NASA has interest in secondary energy storage batteries that display high specific energy, high energy density, long life characteristics, and perform well over a wide range of temperatures, in order to enable a number of future applications.

Determination of Interlaminar Toughness of IM7/977-2 Composites at Temperature Extremes and Different Thicknesses

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, W. S.; Pavlick, M. M.; Oliver, M. S.

2005-01-01

Composite materials are being used in the aerospace industry as a means of reducing vehicle weight. In particular, polymer matrix composites (PMC) are good candidates due to their high strength-to-weight and high stiffness-to-weight ratios. Future reusable space launch vehicles and space exploration structures will need advanced light weight composites in order to minimize vehicle weight while demonstrating robustness and durability, guaranteeing high factors of safety. In particular, the implementation of composite cryogenic propellant fuel tanks (cryotanks) for future reusable launch vehicles (RLVs) could greatly reduce the vehicle's weight versus identically sized cryotanks constructed of metallic materials. One candidate composite material for future cryotank designs is IM7/977-2, which is a graphite/epoxy system. A successful candidate must demonstrate reasonable structural properties over a wide range of temperatures. Since the matrix material is normally the weak link in the composite, tests that emphasize matrix-dominated behavior need to be conducted. Therefore, the objective of this work is to determine the mode I interlaminar fracture toughness of "unidirectional" 8-ply and 16-ply IM7/977-2 through experimental testing. Tests were performed at -196 degrees Celsius (-320 degrees Fahrenheit), 22 degrees Celsius (72 degrees Fahrenheit), 93 degrees Celsius (200 degrees Fahrenheit) and 160 degrees C (320 degrees Fahrenheit). Low temperature testing was completed while the specimen was submerged in a liquid nitrogen bath. High temperature testing was completed in a temperature-controlled oven.

Making Ceramic Components For Advanced Aircraft Engines

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Franklin, J. E.; Ezis, A.

1994-01-01

Lightweight, oxidation-resistant silicon nitride components containing intricate internal cooling and hydraulic passages and capable of withstanding high operating temperatures made by ceramic-platelet technology. Used to fabricate silicon nitride test articles of two types: components of methane-cooled regenerator for air turbo ramjet engine and components of bipropellant injector for rocket engine. Procedures for development of more complex and intricate components established. Technology has commercial utility in automotive, aircraft, and environmental industries for manufacture of high-temperature components for use in regeneration of fuels, treatment of emissions, high-temperature combustion devices, and application in which other high-temperature and/or lightweight components needed. Potential use in fabrication of combustors and high-temperature acoustic panels for suppression of noise in future high-speed aircraft.

Midwest Structural Sciences Center, 2006-2013

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-09-01

for Technology High Speed Systems Division Air Force Research Laboratory This report is published in the interest of scientific and...also be used for making predictions of future flights. 2 Approved for public release; distribution unlimited. Fig. 1.1: Development of future high ...methods were developed to provide validation quality data for coupled high temperature and acoustic loading environments, and to quantitatively study

Future coral reef habitat marginality: Temporal and spatial effects of climate change in the Pacific basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Guinotte, J.M.; Buddemeier, R.W.; Kleypas, J.A.

2003-01-01

Marginal reef habitats are regarded as regions where coral reefs and coral communities reflect the effects of steady-state or long-term average environmental limitations. We used classifications based on this concept with predicted time-variant conditions of future climate to develop a scenario for the evolution of future marginality. Model results based on a conservative scenario of atmospheric CO2 increase were used to examine changes in sea surface temperature and aragonite saturation state over the Pacific Ocean basin until 2069. Results of the projections indicated that essentially all reef locations are likely to become marginal with respect to aragonite saturation state. Significant areas, including some with the highest biodiversity, are expected to experience high-temperature regimes that may be marginal, and additional areas will enter the borderline high temperature range that have experienced significant ENSO-related bleaching in the recent past. The positive effects of warming in areas that are presently marginal in terms of low temperature were limited. Conditions of the late 21st century do not lie outside the ranges in which present-day marginal reef systems occur. Adaptive and acclimative capabilities of organisms and communities will be critical in determining the future of coral reef ecosystems.

Advanced Control Surface Seal Development for Future Space Vehicles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

DeMange, J. J.; Dunlap, P. H., Jr.; Steinetz, B. M.

2004-01-01

NASA s Glenn Research Center (GRC) has been developing advanced high temperature structural seals since the late 1980's and is currently developing seals for future space vehicles as part of the Next Generation Launch Technology (NGLT) program. This includes control surface seals that seal the edges and hinge lines of movable flaps and elevons on future reentry vehicles. In these applications, the seals must operate at temperatures above 2000 F in an oxidizing environment, limit hot gas leakage to protect underlying structures, endure high temperature scrubbing against rough surfaces, and remain flexible and resilient enough to stay in contact with sealing surfaces for multiple heating and loading cycles. For this study, three seal designs were compared against the baseline spring tube seal through a series of compression tests at room temperature and 2000 F and flow tests at room temperature. In addition, canted coil springs were tested as preloaders behind the seals at room temperature to assess their potential for improving resiliency. Addition of these preloader elements resulted in significant increases in resiliency compared to the seals by themselves and surpassed the performance of the baseline seal at room temperature. Flow tests demonstrated that the seal candidates with engineered cores had lower leakage rates than the baseline spring tube design. However, when the seals were placed on the preloader elements, the flow rates were higher as the seals were not compressed as much and therefore were not able to fill the groove as well. High temperature tests were also conducted to asses the compatibility of seal fabrics against ceramic matrix composite (CMC) panels anticipated for use in next generation launch vehicles. These evaluations demonstrated potential bonding issues between the Nextel fabrics and CMC candidates.

Implications of Future Northwest Atlantic Bottom Temperatures on the American Lobster (Homarus americanus) Fishery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rheuban, Jennie E.; Kavanaugh, Maria T.; Doney, Scott C.

2017-12-01

Sea surface temperatures of the northwest Atlantic have warmed dramatically over the last several decades, while benthic temperatures have increased at a slower pace. Here we analyze a subset of the CMIP5 global Earth system model ensemble using a statistical downscaling approach to determine potential future changes in benthic temperatures on the northwest Atlantic continental shelf and slope (<500 m). We put future changes in the context of possible impacts of ocean warming on the high-value, wild-caught American Lobster (Homarus americanus) fishery. Future bottom temperatures of the northwest Atlantic under a business-as-usual (RCP8.5) and a climate-policy (RCP4.5) scenario are projected to increase by 0-1.5°C and 1.2-2.4°C by 2050 and 0-1.9°C and 2.3-4.3°C by the end of the century for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. H. americanus experiences thermal stress at temperatures above 20°C, and projected increases in temperature is likely to result in changes in the distribution of optimal thermal egg hatching and settlement indicators. Inshore regions of southern New England, where H. americanus biomass and catch have been declining historically, will likely become inhospitable under either future scenario, while thermal egg hatching and settlement indicators will expand offshore and in the Gulf of Maine. These changes imply that members of the fishery based in southern New England may need to recapitalize to larger vessels to prepare for potential changes brought on by future climate warming. Results from the downscaling presented here can be useful in preparing for potential changes to other fisheries or in future climate vulnerability analyses.

The Conference on High Temperature Electronics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hamilton, D. J.; Mccormick, J. B.; Kerwin, W. J.; Narud, J. A.

1981-01-01

The status of and directions for high temperature electronics research and development were evaluated. Major objectives were to (1) identify common user needs; (2) put into perspective the directions for future work; and (3) address the problem of bringing to practical fruition the results of these efforts. More than half of the presentations dealt with materials and devices, rather than circuits and systems. Conference session titles and an example of a paper presented in each session are (1) User requirements: High temperature electronics applications in space explorations; (2) Devices: Passive components for high temperature operation; (3) Circuits and systems: Process characteristics and design methods for a 300 degree QUAD or AMP; and (4) Packaging: Presently available energy supply for high temperature environment.

The Conference on High Temperature Electronics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamilton, D. J.; McCormick, J. B.; Kerwin, W. J.; Narud, J. A.

The status of and directions for high temperature electronics research and development were evaluated. Major objectives were to (1) identify common user needs; (2) put into perspective the directions for future work; and (3) address the problem of bringing to practical fruition the results of these efforts. More than half of the presentations dealt with materials and devices, rather than circuits and systems. Conference session titles and an example of a paper presented in each session are (1) User requirements: High temperature electronics applications in space explorations; (2) Devices: Passive components for high temperature operation; (3) Circuits and systems: Process characteristics and design methods for a 300 degree QUAD or AMP; and (4) Packaging: Presently available energy supply for high temperature environment.

Barriers to applying advanced high-temperature materials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Premkumar, M. K.

1993-01-01

During the past 25 years, aerospace engineers and material scientists have made significant technical progress toward developing next-generation aircraft. However, while advanced high-temperature materials continue to be developed, the outlook for their future application is uncertain and will depend on the ability of these materials to satisfy a more diverse market.

Emissivity of Candidate Materials for VHTR Applicationbs: Role of Oxidation and Surface Modification Treatments

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sridharan, Kumar; Allen, Todd; Anderson, Mark

The Generation IV (GEN IV) Nuclear Energy Systems Initiative was instituted by the Department of Energy (DOE) with the goal of researching and developing technologies and materials necessary for various types of future reactors. These GEN IV reactors will employ advanced fuel cycles, passive safety systems, and other innovative systems, leading to significant differences between these future reactors and current water-cooled reactors. The leading candidate for the Next Generation Nuclear Plant (NGNP) to be built at Idaho National Lab (INL) in the United States is the Very High Temperature Reactor (VHTR). Due to the high operating temperatures of the VHTR,more » the Reactor Pressure Vessel (RPV) will partially rely on heat transfer by radiation for cooling. Heat expulsion by radiation will become all the more important during high temperature excursions during off-normal accident scenarios. Radiant power is dictated by emissivity, a material property. The NGNP Materials Research and Development Program Plan [1] has identified emissivity and the effects of high temperature oxide formation on emissivity as an area of research towards the development of the VHTR.« less

Scenario and modelling uncertainty in global mean temperature change derived from emission-driven global climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Booth, B. B. B.; Bernie, D.; McNeall, D.; Hawkins, E.; Caesar, J.; Boulton, C.; Friedlingstein, P.; Sexton, D. M. H.

2013-04-01

We compare future changes in global mean temperature in response to different future scenarios which, for the first time, arise from emission-driven rather than concentration-driven perturbed parameter ensemble of a global climate model (GCM). These new GCM simulations sample uncertainties in atmospheric feedbacks, land carbon cycle, ocean physics and aerosol sulphur cycle processes. We find broader ranges of projected temperature responses arising when considering emission rather than concentration-driven simulations (with 10-90th percentile ranges of 1.7 K for the aggressive mitigation scenario, up to 3.9 K for the high-end, business as usual scenario). A small minority of simulations resulting from combinations of strong atmospheric feedbacks and carbon cycle responses show temperature increases in excess of 9 K (RCP8.5) and even under aggressive mitigation (RCP2.6) temperatures in excess of 4 K. While the simulations point to much larger temperature ranges for emission-driven experiments, they do not change existing expectations (based on previous concentration-driven experiments) on the timescales over which different sources of uncertainty are important. The new simulations sample a range of future atmospheric concentrations for each emission scenario. Both in the case of SRES A1B and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), the concentration scenarios used to drive GCM ensembles, lies towards the lower end of our simulated distribution. This design decision (a legacy of previous assessments) is likely to lead concentration-driven experiments to under-sample strong feedback responses in future projections. Our ensemble of emission-driven simulations span the global temperature response of the CMIP5 emission-driven simulations, except at the low end. Combinations of low climate sensitivity and low carbon cycle feedbacks lead to a number of CMIP5 responses to lie below our ensemble range. The ensemble simulates a number of high-end responses which lie above the CMIP5 carbon cycle range. These high-end simulations can be linked to sampling a number of stronger carbon cycle feedbacks and to sampling climate sensitivities above 4.5 K. This latter aspect highlights the priority in identifying real-world climate-sensitivity constraints which, if achieved, would lead to reductions on the upper bound of projected global mean temperature change. The ensembles of simulations presented here provides a framework to explore relationships between present-day observables and future changes, while the large spread of future-projected changes highlights the ongoing need for such work.

Spatial Patterns in Water Temperature in Pacific Northwest Rivers: Diversity at Multiple Scales and Potential Influence of Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Torgersen, C. E.; Fullerton, A.; Lawler, J. J.; Ebersole, J. L.; Leibowitz, S. G.; Steel, E. A.; Beechie, T. J.; Faux, R.

2016-12-01

Understanding spatial patterns in water temperature will be essential for evaluating vulnerability of aquatic biota to future climate and for identifying and protecting diverse thermal habitats. We used high-resolution remotely sensed water temperature data for over 16,000 km of 2nd to 7th-order rivers throughout the Pacific Northwest and California to evaluate spatial patterns of summertime water temperature at multiple spatial scales. We found a diverse and geographically distributed suite of whole-river patterns. About half of rivers warmed asymptotically in a downstream direction, whereas the rest exhibited complex and unique spatial patterns. Patterns were associated with both broad-scale hydroclimatic variables as well as characteristics unique to each basin. Within-river thermal heterogeneity patterns were highly river-specific; across rivers, median size and spacing of cool patches <15 °C were around 250 m. Patches of this size are large enough for juvenile salmon rearing and for resting during migration, and the distance between patches is well within the movement capabilities of both juvenile and adult salmon. We found considerable thermal heterogeneity at fine spatial scales that may be important to fish that would be missed if data were analyzed at coarser scales. We estimated future thermal heterogeneity and concluded that climate change will cause warmer temperatures overall, but that thermal heterogeneity patterns may remain similar in the future for many rivers. We demonstrated considerable spatial complexity in both current and future water temperature, and resolved spatial patterns that could not have been perceived without spatially continuous data.

High performance polymer development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hergenrother, Paul M.

1991-01-01

The term high performance as applied to polymers is generally associated with polymers that operate at high temperatures. High performance is used to describe polymers that perform at temperatures of 177 C or higher. In addition to temperature, other factors obviously influence the performance of polymers such as thermal cycling, stress level, and environmental effects. Some recent developments at NASA Langley in polyimides, poly(arylene ethers), and acetylenic terminated materials are discussed. The high performance/high temperature polymers discussed are representative of the type of work underway at NASA Langley Research Center. Further improvement in these materials as well as the development of new polymers will provide technology to help meet NASA future needs in high performance/high temperature applications. In addition, because of the combination of properties offered by many of these polymers, they should find use in many other applications.

Scenario and modelling uncertainty in global mean temperature change derived from emission driven Global Climate Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Booth, B. B. B.; Bernie, D.; McNeall, D.; Hawkins, E.; Caesar, J.; Boulton, C.; Friedlingstein, P.; Sexton, D.

2012-09-01

We compare future changes in global mean temperature in response to different future scenarios which, for the first time, arise from emission driven rather than concentration driven perturbed parameter ensemble of a Global Climate Model (GCM). These new GCM simulations sample uncertainties in atmospheric feedbacks, land carbon cycle, ocean physics and aerosol sulphur cycle processes. We find broader ranges of projected temperature responses arising when considering emission rather than concentration driven simulations (with 10-90 percentile ranges of 1.7 K for the aggressive mitigation scenario up to 3.9 K for the high end business as usual scenario). A small minority of simulations resulting from combinations of strong atmospheric feedbacks and carbon cycle responses show temperature increases in excess of 9 degrees (RCP8.5) and even under aggressive mitigation (RCP2.6) temperatures in excess of 4 K. While the simulations point to much larger temperature ranges for emission driven experiments, they do not change existing expectations (based on previous concentration driven experiments) on the timescale that different sources of uncertainty are important. The new simulations sample a range of future atmospheric concentrations for each emission scenario. Both in case of SRES A1B and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), the concentration pathways used to drive GCM ensembles lies towards the lower end of our simulated distribution. This design decision (a legecy of previous assessments) is likely to lead concentration driven experiments to under-sample strong feedback responses in concentration driven projections. Our ensemble of emission driven simulations span the global temperature response of other multi-model frameworks except at the low end, where combinations of low climate sensitivity and low carbon cycle feedbacks lead to responses outside our ensemble range. The ensemble simulates a number of high end responses which lie above the CMIP5 carbon cycle range. These high end simulations can be linked to sampling a number of stronger carbon cycle feedbacks and to sampling climate sensitivities above 4.5 K. This latter aspect highlights the priority in identifying real world climate sensitivity constraints which, if achieved, would lead to reductions on the uppper bound of projected global mean temperature change. The ensembles of simulations presented here provides a framework to explore relationships between present day observables and future changes while the large spread of future projected changes, highlights the ongoing need for such work.

Towards More Comprehensive Projections of Urban Heat-Related Mortality: Estimates for New York City under Multiple Population, Adaptation, and Climate Scenarios.

PubMed

Petkova, Elisaveta P; Vink, Jan K; Horton, Radley M; Gasparrini, Antonio; Bader, Daniel A; Francis, Joe D; Kinney, Patrick L

2017-01-01

High temperatures have substantial impacts on mortality and, with growing concerns about climate change, numerous studies have developed projections of future heat-related deaths around the world. Projections of temperature-related mortality are often limited by insufficient information to formulate hypotheses about population sensitivity to high temperatures and future demographics. The present study derived projections of temperature-related mortality in New York City by taking into account future patterns of adaptation or demographic change, both of which can have profound influences on future health burdens. We adopted a novel approach to modeling heat adaptation by incorporating an analysis of the observed population response to heat in New York City over the course of eight decades. This approach projected heat-related mortality until the end of the 21st century based on observed trends in adaptation over a substantial portion of the 20th century. In addition, we incorporated a range of new scenarios for population change until the end of the 21st century. We then estimated future heat-related deaths in New York City by combining the changing temperature-mortality relationship and population scenarios with downscaled temperature projections from the 33 global climate models (GCMs) and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The median number of projected annual heat-related deaths across the 33 GCMs varied greatly by RCP and adaptation and population change scenario, ranging from 167 to 3,331 in the 2080s compared with 638 heat-related deaths annually between 2000 and 2006. These findings provide a more complete picture of the range of potential future heat-related mortality risks across the 21st century in New York City, and they highlight the importance of both demographic change and adaptation responses in modifying future risks. Citation: Petkova EP, Vink JK, Horton RM, Gasparrini A, Bader DA, Francis JD, Kinney PL. 2017. Towards more comprehensive projections of urban heat-related mortality: estimates for New York City under multiple population, adaptation, and climate scenarios. Environ Health Perspect 125:47-55; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP166.

Future Changes to ENSO Temperature and Precipitation Teleconnections Under Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perry, S.; McGregor, S.; Sen Gupta, A.; England, M. H.

2016-12-01

As the dominant mode of interannual climate variability, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) modulates temperature and rainfall globally, additionally contributing to weather extremes. Anthropogenic climate change has the potential to alter the strength and frequency of ENSO and may also alter ENSO-driven atmospheric teleconnections, affecting ecosystems and human activity in regions far removed from the tropical Pacific. State-of-art climate models exhibit considerable disagreement in projections of future changes in ENSO sea surface temperature variability. Despite this uncertainty, recent model studies suggest that the precipitation response to ENSO will be enhanced in the tropical Pacific under future warming, and as such the societal impacts of ENSO will increase. Here we use temperature and precipitation data from an ensemble of 41 CMIP5 models to show where ENSO teleconnections are being enhanced and dampened in a high-emission future scenario (RCP8.5) focusing on the changes that are occurring over land areas globally. Although there is some spread between the model projections, robust changes with strong ensemble agreement are found in certain locations, including amplification of teleconnections in southeast Australia, South America and the Maritime Continent. Our results suggest that in these regions future ENSO events will lead to more extreme temperature and rainfall responses.

Technology perspectives in the future exploration of extreme environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cutts, J.; Balint, T.; Kolawa, El.; Peterson, C.

2007-08-01

Solar System exploration is driven by high priority science goals and objectives at diverse destinations, as described in the NRC Decadal Survey and in NASA's 2006 Solar System Exploration (SSE) Roadmap. Proposed missions to these targets encounter extreme environments, including high or low temperatures, high pressure, corrosion, high heat flux, radiation and thermal cycling. These conditions are often coupled, such as low temperature and high radiation at Europa; and high temperature and high pressure near the surface of Venus. Mitigation of these environmental conditions frequently reaches beyond technologies developed for terrestrial applications, for example, by the automotive and oil industries. Therefore, space agencies require dedicated technology developments to enable these future missions. Within NASA, proposed missions are divided into three categories. Competed small (Discovery class) and medium (New Frontiers class) missions are cost capped, thus limiting significant technology developments. Therefore, large (Flagship class) missions are required not only to tackle key science questions which can't be addressed by smaller missions, but also to develop mission enabling technologies that can feed forward to smaller missions as well. In a newly completed extreme environment technology assessment at NASA, we evaluated technologies from the current State of Practice (SoP) to advanced concepts for proposed missions over the next decades. Highlights of this report are discussed here, including systems architectures, such as hybrid systems; protection systems; high temperature electronics; power generation and storage; mobility technologies; sample acquisition and mechanisms; and the need to test these technologies in relevant environments. It is expected that the findings - documented in detail in NASA's Extreme Environments Technologies report - would help identifying future technology investment areas, and in turn enable or enhance planned SSE missions, while reducing mission cost and risk.

2000 NASA Seal/Secondary Air System Workshop. Volume 1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Steinetz, Bruce M. (Editor); Hendricks, Robert C. (Editor)

2001-01-01

The 2000 NASA Seal/Secondary Air System Workshop covered four main areas: (1) overviews of NASA-sponsored Ultra-Efficient Engine Technology (UEET) and Access to Space Programs, with emphasis on program goals and seal needs; (2) review of turbine engine seal issues from the perspective of end users such as United Airlines; (3) reviews of sealing concepts, test results, experimental facilities, and numerical predictions; and (4) reviews of material development programs relevant to advanced seals development. The NASA UEET overview illustrates for the reader the importance of advanced technologies, including seals, in meeting future engine system efficiency and emission goals. GE, Pratt & Whitney, and Honeywell presented advanced seal development work being performed within their organizations. The NASA-funded GE/Stein Seal team has successfully demonstrated a large (3-ft. diam) aspirating seal that can withstand all anticipated pressures, speeds, and rotor runouts anticipated for a GE90 L.P. turbine balance piston location. GE/Stein Seal are fabricating a full-scale seal to be tested in a GE-90 ground test engine in early 2002. Pratt & Whitney and Stein Seal are investigating carbon seals to accommodate large radial movements anticipated in future geared-fan gearbox locations. Honeywell presented a finger seal design being considered for a high-temperature static combustor location incorporating ceramic finger elements. Successful demonstration of the braided carbon rope thermal barriers to extreme temperatures (5500 F) for short durations provide a new form of very high temperature thermal barrier for future Shuttle solid rocket motor nozzle joints. The X-37, X-38, and future highly reusable launch vehicles pose challenging control surface seal demands that require new seal concepts made from emerging high temperature ceramics and other materials.

Evidence for divergence of response in Indica, Japonica, and wild rice to high CO2 x temperature interaction

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Previous studies suggest that the intraspecific variability of rice yield response to rising carbon dioxide concentration, [CO2], could serve as a basis of selection to improve genotypes for future high CO2 conditions. However, assessment of responses to elevated [CO2] must consider air temperature,...

Progress in advanced high temperature materials technology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Freche, J. C.; Ault, G. M.

1976-01-01

Significant progress has recently been made in many high temperature material categories pertinent to such applications by the industrial community. These include metal matrix composites, superalloys, directionally solidified eutectics, coatings, and ceramics. Each of these material categories is reviewed and the current state-of-the-art identified, including some assessment, when appropriate, of progress, problems, and future directions.

Cryocoolers for the new high-temperature superconductors

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Walker, G.; Ellison, W.; Zylstra, S.

1988-06-01

Compact, reliable, low-cost cryocoolers operated simply by closing a switch are an essential requirement for the coming age of superconductivity and cold electronic systems. The advent of high-temperature superconductors has substantially eased the task of those seeking to fill the above need. This article reviews some recent developments in cryocooler systems and examined some prospects for the future.

High-Temperature Solar Cell Development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Landis, Geoffrey A.; Raffaelle, Ryne P.; Merritt, Danielle

2004-01-01

The vast majority of satellites and near-earth probes developed to date have relied upon photovoltaic power generation. If future missions to probe environments close to the sun will be able to use photovoltaic power, solar cells that can function at high temperatures, under high light intensity, and high radiation conditions must be developed. For example, the equilibrium temperature of a Mercury surface station will be about 450 C, and the temperature of solar arrays on the proposed "Solar Probe" mission will extend to temperatures as high as 2000 C (although it is likely that the craft will operate on stored power rather than solar energy during the closest approach to the sun). Advanced thermal design principles, such as replacing some of the solar array area with reflectors, off-pointing, and designing the cells to reflect rather than absorb light out of the band of peak response, can reduce these operating temperature somewhat. Nevertheless, it is desirable to develop approaches to high-temperature solar cell design that can operate under temperature extremes far greater than today's cells. Solar cells made from wide bandgap (WBG) compound semiconductors are an obvious choice for such an application. In order to aid in the experimental development of such solar cells, we have initiated a program studying the theoretical and experimental photovoltaic performance of wide bandgap materials. In particular, we have been investigating the use of GaP, SiC, and GaN materials for space solar cells. We will present theoretical results on the limitations on current cell technologies and the photovoltaic performance of these wide-bandgap solar cells in a variety of space conditions. We will also give an overview of some of NASA's cell developmental efforts in this area and discuss possible future mission applications.

Selection of High Temperature Organic Materials for Future Stirling Convertors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shin, Euy-Sik Eugene

2017-01-01

In the future higher temperature Stirling convertors for improved efficiency and performance, various high temperature organic materials have been demanded as essential components for their unique properties and functions such as bonding, potting, sealing, thread locking, insulation, and lubrication. The higher temperature capabilities would also allow current state-of-the-art (SOA) convertors to be used in additional missions, particularly those that require a Venus flyby for a gravity assist. Stirling convertor radioisotope generators have been developed for potential future space applications including Lunar/Mars surface power or a variety of spacecraft and vehicles, especially with a long mission cycle, sometimes up to 17 years, such as deep space exploration. Thus, performance, durability, and reliability of the organics should be critically evaluated in terms of comprehensive structure-process-service environment relations based on the potential mission specifications. The initial efforts in screening the high temperature candidates focused on the most susceptible organics, such as adhesive, potting compound, o-ring, shrink tubing, and thread locker materials in conjunction with commercially available materials. More systematic and practical test methodologies that were developed and optimized based on the extensive organic evaluations and validations performed for various Stirling convertor types were employed to determine thermal stability, outgassing, and material compatibility of the selected organic candidates against their functional requirements. Processing and fabrication conditions and procedures were also optimized. This paper presents results of the three-step candidate evaluation processes, their application limitations, and the final selection recommendations.

Thermal and Environmental Barrier Coatings for Advanced Propulsion Engine Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zhu, Dong-Ming; Miller, Robert A.

2004-01-01

Ceramic thermal and environmental barrier coatings (TEBCs) are used in gas turbine engines to protect engine hot-section components in the harsh combustion environments, and extend component lifetimes. For future high performance engines, the development of advanced ceramic barrier coating systems will allow these coatings to be used to simultaneously increase engine operating temperature and reduce cooling requirements, thereby leading to significant improvements in engine power density and efficiency. In order to meet future engine performance and reliability requirements, the coating systems must be designed with increased high temperature stability, lower thermal conductivity, and improved thermal stress and erosion resistance. In this paper, ceramic coating design and testing considerations will be described for high temperature and high-heat-flux engine applications in hot corrosion and oxidation, erosion, and combustion water vapor environments. Further coating performance and life improvements will be expected by utilizing advanced coating architecture design, composition optimization, and improved processing techniques, in conjunction with modeling and design tools.

Chronic warm exposure impairs growth performance and reduces thermal safety margins in the common triplefin fish (Forsterygion lapillum).

PubMed

McArley, Tristan J; Hickey, Anthony J R; Herbert, Neill A

2017-10-01

Intertidal fish species face gradual chronic changes in temperature and greater extremes of acute thermal exposure through climate-induced warming. As sea temperatures rise, it has been proposed that whole-animal performance will be impaired through oxygen and capacity limited thermal tolerance [OCLTT; reduced aerobic metabolic scope (MS)] and, on acute exposure to high temperatures, thermal safety margins may be reduced because of constrained acclimation capacity of upper thermal limits. Using the New Zealand triplefin fish ( Forsterygion lapillum ), this study addressed how performance in terms of growth and metabolism (MS) and upper thermal tolerance limits would be affected by chronic exposure to elevated temperature. Growth was measured in fish acclimated (12 weeks) to present and predicted future temperatures and metabolic rates were then determined in fish at acclimation temperatures and with acute thermal ramping. In agreement with the OCLTT hypothesis, chronic exposure to elevated temperature significantly reduced growth performance and MS. However, despite the prospect of impaired growth performance under warmer future summertime conditions, an annual growth model revealed that elevated temperatures may only shift the timing of high growth potential and not the overall annual growth rate. While the upper thermal tolerance (i.e. critical thermal maxima) increased with exposure to warmer temperatures and was associated with depressed metabolic rates during acute thermal ramping, upper thermal tolerance did not differ between present and predicted future summertime temperatures. This suggests that warming may progressively decrease thermal safety margins for hardy generalist species and could limit the available habitat range of intertidal populations. © 2017. Published by The Company of Biologists Ltd.

Development of High Temperature Type Vacuum Insulation Panel using Soluble Polyimide and Characteristic Evaluation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Araki, Kuninari; Kamoto, Daigorou; Matsuoka, Shin-Ichi

The utilization is expected from the high-insulated characteristic as a tool for energy saving also in the high temperature insulation fields as in vacuum insulation panels (VIP) in the future. For high temperature, the material composition and process of VIP were reviewed, the SUS foil was adopted as packaging material, and soluble polyimide was developed as the thermo compression bonding material for high temperature VIP at 150°C. To lower the glass-transition temperature (Tg) under 200°C, we elaborated the new soluble polyimide using aliphatic diamine copolymer, and controlled Tg to about 176°C. By making from trial VIP and evaluations, it was possible to be maintain high performance concerning the coefficient of thermal conductivity [λ<0.008 W/(m·K) at 150°C].

Lake Energy Budget and Temperature Profiles Under Future Greenhouse Gas Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lofgren, B. M.; Xiao, C.

2017-12-01

Future climates under higher concentrations of greenhouse gases are expected to feature higher air and water temperatures, and shifts in surface heat fluxes. We investigate in greater detail the evolution of this in terms of the annual cycle of lake temperature profiles, stratification, and ice formation. Other work has found that, although shallower water promotes more rapid changes in surface water temperature within a season, change in surface water temperature across decades is more prominent in locations with greater water depth. Our simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and its lake module, WRF-Lake, show a trend toward longer periods of summer stratification, both through earlier onset in the spring and later decay of stratification in the fall. They also show a general increase in temperature throughout the water column, but most pronounced near the surface during the summer. Likewise, ice duration is much shorter and more restricted to shallow embayments. High latent and sensible heat flux during the fall and winter are less intense but longer lasting under the future scenario. Sources of uncertainty are cumulative—actual future greenhouse gas concentrations, global sensitivity of climate change, cloud feedbacks, the combined formulation of the regional climate model (WRF) and its global driving model, and more.

Impacts of ozone air pollution and temperature extremes on crop yields: Spatial variability, adaptation and implications for future food security

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tai, Amos P. K.; Val Martin, Maria

2017-11-01

Ozone air pollution and climate change pose major threats to global crop production, with ramifications for future food security. Previous studies of ozone and warming impacts on crops typically do not account for the strong ozone-temperature correlation when interpreting crop-ozone or crop-temperature relationships, or the spatial variability of crop-to-ozone sensitivity arising from varietal and environmental differences, leading to potential biases in their estimated crop losses. Here we develop an empirical model, called the partial derivative-linear regression (PDLR) model, to estimate the spatial variations in the sensitivities of wheat, maize and soybean yields to ozone exposures and temperature extremes in the US and Europe using a composite of multidecadal datasets, fully correcting for ozone-temperature covariation. We find generally larger and more spatially varying sensitivities of all three crops to ozone exposures than are implied by experimentally derived concentration-response functions used in most previous studies. Stronger ozone tolerance is found in regions with high ozone levels and high consumptive crop water use, reflecting the existence of spatial adaptation and effect of water constraints. The spatially varying sensitivities to temperature extremes also indicate stronger heat tolerance in crops grown in warmer regions. The spatial adaptation of crops to ozone and temperature we find can serve as a surrogate for future adaptation. Using the PDLR-derived sensitivities and 2000-2050 ozone and temperature projections by the Community Earth System Model, we estimate that future warming and unmitigated ozone pollution can combine to cause an average decline in US wheat, maize and soybean production by 13%, 43% and 28%, respectively, and a smaller decline for European crops. Aggressive ozone regulation is shown to offset such decline to various extents, especially for wheat. Our findings demonstrate the importance of considering ozone regulation as well as ozone and climate change adaptation (e.g., selecting heat- and ozone-tolerant cultivars, irrigation) as possible strategies to enhance future food security in response to imminent environmental threats.

Corrosion of Ceramic Materials

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Opila, Elizabeth J.; Jacobson, Nathan S.

1999-01-01

Non-oxide ceramics are promising materials for a range of high temperature applications. Selected current and future applications are listed. In all such applications, the ceramics are exposed to high temperature gases. Therefore it is critical to understand the response of these materials to their environment. The variables to be considered here include both the type of ceramic and the environment to which it is exposed. Non-oxide ceramics include borides, nitrides, and carbides. Most high temperature corrosion environments contain oxygen and hence the emphasis of this chapter will be on oxidation processes.

Regional and global implications of land-use change and climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stauffer, Heidi Lada

This dissertation has two main components. The first is a longterm regional climate modeling study of the effects of different types of land use changes on Southeast Asian climate under present-day climate conditions and under future projected climate conditions at the end of the 21st Century. The focus of the second component is to estimate daily heat index for projected extreme temperatures at the end of the 21st Century and projecting the number of people affected by those heat conditions. The first component of this study uses a high-resolution regional climate model centered on the Southeast Asian region to compare two land use change scenarios under modern climate and future projected climate conditions. Results from experiments under modern climate conditions indicate that changes in regional climate including widespread surface cooling, increased precipitation, and increased latent heat flux are primarily due to deforestation. As expected from other studies, future climate projections indicate increasing surface temperature and total precipitation. However, the combination of increasing global temperatures and irrigation appears to increase latent heat flux and evapotranspiration, leading to decrease in the surface temperature nearly the same magnitude, increasing both specific humidity and relative humidity. The increasing relative humidity causes low clouds to form, and the net surface solar absorbed flux decreases in response, which further cools the surface. These results imply that deforestation and irrigation have differing complex regional climate responses and the presence of irrigation could mask future surface temperature increases, at least in the short term and reinforce the importance of incorporating land use changes, particularly irrigation, into any studies of future regional climate. The second component of this study uses global daily maximum heat indices derived from future climate future climate simulations for 2098 and projected population density to estimate how many people will be affected by rising temperatures. Our results show that over 4 billion people annually will experience prolonged periods of Danger heat index conditions, under which heat exhaustion and heat stroke are likely. In addition, a majority of people subjected to prolonged high heat stress conditions are located in tropical developing nations, such as those in south and Southeast Asia, where population density is high and large numbers of people work outdoors. Many countries in these regions lack the resources to mitigate the impact of heat stress on the large numbers of people likely to experience heat-related illness and death.

Does greater thermal plasticity facilitate range expansion of an invasive terrestrial anuran into higher latitudes?

PubMed

Winwood-Smith, Hugh S; Alton, Lesley A; Franklin, Craig E; White, Craig R

2015-01-01

Temperature has pervasive effects on physiological processes and is critical in setting species distribution limits. Since invading Australia, cane toads have spread rapidly across low latitudes, but slowly into higher latitudes. Low temperature is the likely factor limiting high-latitude advancement. Several previous attempts have been made to predict future cane toad distributions in Australia, but understanding the potential contribution of phenotypic plasticity and adaptation to future range expansion remains challenging. Previous research demonstrates the considerable thermal metabolic plasticity of the cane toad, but suggests limited thermal plasticity of locomotor performance. Additionally, the oxygen-limited thermal tolerance hypothesis predicts that reduced aerobic scope sets thermal limits for ectotherm performance. Metabolic plasticity, locomotor performance and aerobic scope are therefore predicted targets of natural selection as cane toads invade colder regions. We measured these traits at temperatures of 10, 15, 22.5 and 30°C in low- and high-latitude toads acclimated to 15 and 30°C, to test the hypothesis that cane toads have adapted to cooler temperatures. High-latitude toads show increased metabolic plasticity and higher resting metabolic rates at lower temperatures. Burst locomotor performance was worse for high-latitude toads. Other traits showed no regional differences. We conclude that increased metabolic plasticity may facilitate invasion into higher latitudes by maintaining critical physiological functions at lower temperatures.

Australia's Unprecedented Future Temperature Extremes Under Paris Limits to Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lewis, Sophie C.; King, Andrew D.; Mitchell, Daniel M.

2017-10-01

Record-breaking temperatures can detrimentally impact ecosystems, infrastructure, and human health. Previous studies show that climate change has influenced some observed extremes, which are expected to become more frequent under enhanced future warming. Understanding the magnitude, as a well as frequency, of such future extremes is critical for limiting detrimental impacts. We focus on temperature changes in Australian regions, including over a major coral reef-building area, and assess the potential magnitude of future extreme temperatures under Paris Agreement global warming targets (1.5°C and 2°C). Under these limits to global mean warming, we determine a set of projected high-magnitude unprecedented Australian temperature extremes. These include extremes unexpected based on observational temperatures, including current record-breaking events. For example, while the difference in global-average warming during the hottest Australian summer and the 2°C Paris target is 1.1°C, extremes of 2.4°C above the observed summer record are simulated. This example represents a more than doubling of the magnitude of extremes, compared with global mean change, and such temperatures are unexpected based on the observed record alone. Projected extremes do not necessarily scale linearly with mean global warming, and this effect demonstrates the significant potential benefits of limiting warming to 1.5°C, compared to 2°C or warmer.

Environmental Stability and Oxidation Behavior of HfO2-Si and YbGd(O) Based Environmental Barrier Coating Systems for SiCSiC Ceramic Matrix Composites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zhu, Dongming; Farmer, Serene; McCue, Terry R.; Harder, Bryan; Hurst, Janet B.

2017-01-01

Ceramic environmental barrier coatings (EBC) and SiCSiC ceramic matrix composites (CMCs) will play a crucial role in future aircraft propulsion systems because of their ability to significantly increase engine operating temperatures, improve component durability, reduce engine weight and cooling requirements. Advanced EBC systems for SiCSiC CMC turbine and combustor hot section components are currently being developed to meet future turbine engine emission and performance goals. One of the significant material development challenges for the high temperature CMC components is to develop prime-reliant, environmental durable environmental barrier coating systems. In this paper, the durability and performance of advanced Electron Beam-Physical Vapor Deposition (EB-PVD) NASA HfO2-Si and YbGdSi(O) EBC bond coat top coat systems for SiCSiC CMC have been summarized. The high temperature thermomechanical creep, fatigue and oxidation resistance have been investigated in the laboratory simulated high-heat-flux environmental test conditions. The advanced NASA EBC systems showed promise to achieve 1500C temperature capability, helping enable next generation turbine engines with significantly improved engine component temperature capability and durability.

A Brief Review of the Need for Robust Smart Wireless Sensor Systems for Future Propulsion Systems, Distributed Engine Controls, and Propulsion Health Management

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hunter, Gary W.; Behbahani, Alireza

2012-01-01

Smart Sensor Systems with wireless capability operational in high temperature, harsh environments are a significant component in enabling future propulsion systems to meet a range of increasingly demanding requirements. These propulsion systems must incorporate technology that will monitor engine component conditions, analyze the incoming data, and modify operating parameters to optimize propulsion system operations. This paper discusses the motivation towards the development of high temperature, smart wireless sensor systems that include sensors, electronics, wireless communication, and power. The challenges associated with the use of traditional wired sensor systems will be reviewed and potential advantages of Smart Sensor Systems will be discussed. A brief review of potential applications for wireless smart sensor networks and their potential impact on propulsion system operation, with emphasis on Distributed Engine Control and Propulsion Health Management, will be given. A specific example related to the development of high temperature Smart Sensor Systems based on silicon carbide electronics will be discussed. It is concluded that the development of a range of robust smart wireless sensor systems are a foundation for future development of intelligent propulsion systems with enhanced capabilities.

Extended Temperature Solar Cell Technology Development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Landis, Geoffrey A.; Jenkins, Phillip; Scheiman, David; Rafaelle, Ryne

2004-01-01

Future NASA missions will require solar cells to operate both in regimes closer to the sun, and farther from the sun, where the operating temperatures will be higher and lower than standard operational conditions. NASA Glenn is engaged in testing solar cells under extended temperature ranges, developing theoretical models of cell operation as a function of temperature, and in developing technology for improving the performance of solar cells for both high and low temperature operation.

Investigation of Changes in Extreme Temperature and Humidity Over China Through a Dynamical Downscaling Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Jinxin; Huang, Gordon; Wang, Xiuquan; Cheng, Guanhui

2017-11-01

Impacts of climate change relating to public health are often determined by multiple climate variables. The health-related metrics combining high-temperature and relative humidity are most concerned. Temperatures, relative humidity and relationship among them are investigated here for a comprehensive assessment of climate change impacts over China. A projection of combined temperatures and humidity through the PRECIS model is addressed. The PRECIS model's skill in reproducing the historical climate over China was first gauged through validating its historical simulation with the observation data set in terms of the two contributing variables. With good results of validation, a plausible range of combined temperatures and relative humidity were generated under RCPs. The results suggested that the annual mean temperature of China will increase up to 6°C at the end of 21st century. Opposite to the significantly change in the temperature, the maximum magnitude of changes in relative humidity is only 8% from the value in the baseline period. The dew point temperature is projected to be 14.9°C (within the comfortable interval) over the whole nation under high radiative forcing scenario at the end of this century. Therefore, the combination effects of high temperatures and relative humidity are substantially smaller than generally anticipated for China. Even though the impact-relevant metric like the dew point temperature is not projected as bad as the generally anticipated, we found that the frequency of high-temperature extremes increases up to 40% and the duration increases up to 150% in China. China is still expected to have more number of extremely hot days, more frequent high-temperature extremes, and longer duration of warm spell than before. Regionally, South China has the smallest changes in the mean, maximum and minimum temperatures while the largest increases in all five high-temperature indices. Consequently, the climate over South China for two future periods will be changing more drastically than the baseline period. Extra cautions need to be given to South China in the future.

RNA-seq analysis of broiler liver transcriptome reveals novel responses to high ambient temperature.

PubMed

Coble, Derrick J; Fleming, Damarius; Persia, Michael E; Ashwell, Chris M; Rothschild, Max F; Schmidt, Carl J; Lamont, Susan J

2014-12-10

In broilers, high ambient temperature can result in reduced feed consumption, digestive inefficiency, impaired metabolism, and even death. The broiler sector of the U.S. poultry industry incurs approximately $52 million in heat-related losses annually. The objective of this study is to characterize the effects of cyclic high ambient temperature on the transcriptome of a metabolically active organ, the liver. This study provides novel insight into the effects of high ambient temperature on metabolism in broilers, because it is the first reported RNA-seq study to characterize the effect of heat on the transcriptome of a metabolic-related tissue. This information provides a platform for future investigations to further elucidate physiologic responses to high ambient temperature and seek methods to ameliorate the negative impacts of heat. Transcriptome sequencing of the livers of 8 broiler males using Illumina HiSeq 2000 technology resulted in 138 million, 100-base pair single end reads, yielding a total of 13.8 gigabases of sequence. Forty genes were differentially expressed at a significance level of P-value < 0.05 and a fold-change ≥ 2 in response to a week of cyclic high ambient temperature with 27 down-regulated and 13 up-regulated genes. Two gene networks were created from the function-based Ingenuity Pathway Analysis (IPA) of the differentially expressed genes: "Cell Signaling" and "Endocrine System Development and Function". The gene expression differences in the liver transcriptome of the heat-exposed broilers reflected physiological responses to decrease internal temperature, reduce hyperthermia-induced apoptosis, and promote tissue repair. Additionally, the differential gene expression revealed a physiological response to regulate the perturbed cellular calcium levels that can result from high ambient temperature exposure. Exposure to cyclic high ambient temperature results in changes at the metabolic, physiologic, and cellular level that can be characterized through RNA-seq analysis of the liver transcriptome of broilers. The findings highlight specific physiologic mechanisms by which broilers reduce the effects of exposure to high ambient temperature. This information provides a foundation for future investigations into the gene networks involved in the broiler stress response and for development of strategies to ameliorate the negative impacts of heat on animal production and welfare.

Projection of Future Mortality Due to Temperature and Population Changes under Representative Concentration Pathways and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

PubMed Central

Lee, Jae Young; Kim, Ejin; Lee, Woo-Seop; Chae, Yeora; Kim, Ho

2018-01-01

The Paris Agreement aims to limit the global temperature increase to below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the increase to even below 1.5 °C. Now, it should be asked what benefits are in pursuing these two targets. In this study, we assessed the temperature–mortality relationship using a distributed lag non-linear model in seven major cities of South Korea. Then, we projected future temperature-attributable mortality under different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios for those cities. Mortality was projected to increase by 1.53 under the RCP 4.5 (temperature increase by 2.83 °C) and 3.3 under the RCP 8.5 (temperature increase by 5.10 °C) until the 2090s, as compared to baseline (1991–2015) mortality. However, future mortality is expected to increase by less than 1.13 and 1.26 if the 1.5 °C and 2 °C increase targets are met, respectively, under the RCP 4.5. Achieving the more ambitious target of 1.5 °C will reduce mortality by 12%, when compared to the 2 °C target. When we estimated future mortality due to both temperature and population changes, the future mortality was found to be increased by 2.07 and 3.85 for the 1.5 °C and 2 °C temperature increases, respectively, under the RCP 4.5. These increases can be attributed to a growing proportion of elderly population, who is more vulnerable to high temperatures. Meeting the target of 1.5 °C will be particularly beneficial for rapidly aging societies, including South Korea. PMID:29690535

Projection of Future Mortality Due to Temperature and Population Changes under Representative Concentration Pathways and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways.

PubMed

Lee, Jae Young; Kim, Ejin; Lee, Woo-Seop; Chae, Yeora; Kim, Ho

2018-04-21

The Paris Agreement aims to limit the global temperature increase to below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the increase to even below 1.5 °C. Now, it should be asked what benefits are in pursuing these two targets. In this study, we assessed the temperature⁻mortality relationship using a distributed lag non-linear model in seven major cities of South Korea. Then, we projected future temperature-attributable mortality under different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios for those cities. Mortality was projected to increase by 1.53 under the RCP 4.5 (temperature increase by 2.83 °C) and 3.3 under the RCP 8.5 (temperature increase by 5.10 °C) until the 2090s, as compared to baseline (1991⁻2015) mortality. However, future mortality is expected to increase by less than 1.13 and 1.26 if the 1.5 °C and 2 °C increase targets are met, respectively, under the RCP 4.5. Achieving the more ambitious target of 1.5 °C will reduce mortality by 12%, when compared to the 2 °C target. When we estimated future mortality due to both temperature and population changes, the future mortality was found to be increased by 2.07 and 3.85 for the 1.5 °C and 2 °C temperature increases, respectively, under the RCP 4.5. These increases can be attributed to a growing proportion of elderly population, who is more vulnerable to high temperatures. Meeting the target of 1.5 °C will be particularly beneficial for rapidly aging societies, including South Korea.

Projected changes in climate extremes over Qatar and the Arabian Gulf region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kundeti, K.; Kanikicharla, K. K.; Al sulaiti, M.; Khulaifi, M.; Alboinin, N.; Kito, A.

2015-12-01

The climate of the State of Qatar and the adjacent region is dominated by subtropical dry, hot desert climate with low annual rainfall, very high temperatures in summer and a big difference between maximum and minimum temperatures, especially in the inland areas. The coastal areas are influenced by the Arabian Gulf, and have lower maximum, but higher minimum temperatures and a higher moisture percentage in the air. The global warming can have profound impact on the mean climate as well as extreme weather events over the Arabian Peninsula that may affect both natural and human systems significantly. Therefore, it is important to assess the future changes in the seasonal/annual mean of temperature and precipitation and also the extremes in temperature and wind events for a country like Qatar. This study assesses the performance of the Coupled Model Inter comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations in present and develops future climate scenarios. The changes in climate extremes are assessed for three future periods 2016-2035, 2046-2065 and 2080-2099 with respect to 1986-2005 (base line) under two RCPs (Representative Concentrate Pathways) - RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. We analyzed the projected changes in temperature and precipitation extremes using several indices including those that capture heat stress. The observations show an increase in warm extremes over many parts in this region that are generally well captured by the models. The results indicate a significant change in frequency and intensity of both temperature and precipitation extremes over many parts of this region which may have serious implications on human health, water resources and the onshore/offshore infrastructure in this region. Data from a high-resolution (20km) AGCM simulation from Meteorological Research Institute of Japan Meteorological Agency for the present (1979-2003) and a future time slice (2075-2099) corresponding to RCP8.5 have also been utilized to assess the impact of climate change on regional climate extremes as well. The scenarios generated with the high-resolution model simulation were compared with the coarse resolution CMIP5 model scenarios to identify region specific features that might be better resolved in the former simulation.

High temperature superconducting magnetic energy storage for future NASA missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Faymon, Karl A.; Rudnick, Stanley J.

1988-01-01

Several NASA sponsored studies based on 'conventional' liquid helium temperature level superconductivity technology have concluded that superconducting magnetic energy storage has considerable potential for space applications. The advent of high temperature superconductivity (HTSC) may provide additional benefits over conventional superconductivity technology, making magnetic energy storage even more attractive. The proposed NASA space station is a possible candidate for the application of HTSC energy storage. Alternative energy storage technologies for this and other low Earth orbit missions are compared.

Some considerations for various positioning systems and their science capabilities

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rey, Charles A.; Merkley, D. R.; Danley, T. J.

1990-01-01

Containerless processing of materials at elevated temperatures is discussed with emphasis on high temperature chemistry, thermophysical properties, materials science, and materials processing. Acoustic and electromagnetic positioning of high temperature melts are discussed. Results from recent ground based experiments, including KC-135 testing of an acoustic levitator, are presented. Some current positioning technologies and the potential for enhancing them are considered. Further, a summary of these technologies and their science capabilities for the development of future experiments is given.

Impacts of Climate Change on Water Requirements of Dry Season Boro Rice: Recent Trends and Future Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Acharjee, T. K.; Ludwig, F.; Halsema, G. V.; Hellegers, P.; Supit, I.

2017-12-01

The North-West part of Bangladesh is vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, because of dry season water shortage and high water demand for rice cultivation. A study was carried out to understand the impacts of recent climate change (1980-2013) and future consequences (for 2050s and 2080s) on water requirements of Boro rice. The reference crop evapotranspiration (ETo), potential crop water requirement (∑ETC), effective rainfall (ER), potential irrigation requirement for crop evapotranspiration (∑ETC-ER) and net irrigation requirement of Boro rice were estimated in CropWat using observed daily climate data for recent trends and statistically downscaled and bias corrected GCM outputs (five models and two RCPs) for future scenarios. ETo showed a significant decreasing recent trends due to increasing relative humidity and decreasing wind speed and sun shine hours instead of an increase in temperature. However, the strong future increase in temperature will lead to an insignificant increase in ETo. ∑ETC showed a decreasing recent trend and will further decrease in the future because of shortened duration of Boro growth stages as crop's phenological response to increased temperature. The variations in trends of ∑ETC-ER found among different districts, are mainly linked to the variations in trends of changes in effective rainfall. During last three decades, the net irrigation requirement has decreased by 11% at an average rate of -4.4 mm/year, instead of a decreasing effective rainfall, mainly because of high rate of decrease of crop evapotranspiration (-5.9 mm/year). In future, although daily water requirement will increase, the total net irrigation requirement of Boro rice will decrease by 1.6% in 2050s and 7.4% in 2080s for RCP 8.5 scenario on an average for five models and four districts compared to the base period (1980-2013). High variations in projected changes in rainfall bring high uncertainty for future water requirements estimation. Therefore, a warming climate will not directly increase the water demand for crop agriculture in North-West Bangladesh but will make the future agricultural water management more complex by bringing more variations and uncertainty in the system.

Development of a New Generation of High-Temperature Thermoelectric Unicouples for Space Applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Caillat, Thierry; Gogna, P.; Sakamoto, J.; Jewell, A.; Cheng, J.; Blair, R.; Fleurial, J. -P.; Ewell, R.

2006-01-01

RTG's have enabled surface and deep space missions since 1961: a) 26 flight missions without any RTG failures; and b) Mission durations in excess of 25 years. Future NASA missions require RTG s with high specific power and high efficiency, while retaining long life (> 14 years) and high reliability, (i.e. 6-8 W/kg, 10-15% efficiency). JPL in partnership with NASA-GRC, NASA-MSFC, DOE, Universities and Industry is developing advanced thermoelectric materials and converters to meet future NASA needs.

Towards More Comprehensive Projections of Urban Heat-Related Mortality: Estimates for New York City under Multiple Population, Adaptation, and Climate Scenarios

PubMed Central

Petkova, Elisaveta P.; Vink, Jan K.; Horton, Radley M.; Gasparrini, Antonio; Bader, Daniel A.; Francis, Joe D.; Kinney, Patrick L.

2016-01-01

Background: High temperatures have substantial impacts on mortality and, with growing concerns about climate change, numerous studies have developed projections of future heat-related deaths around the world. Projections of temperature-related mortality are often limited by insufficient information to formulate hypotheses about population sensitivity to high temperatures and future demographics. Objectives: The present study derived projections of temperature-related mortality in New York City by taking into account future patterns of adaptation or demographic change, both of which can have profound influences on future health burdens. Methods: We adopted a novel approach to modeling heat adaptation by incorporating an analysis of the observed population response to heat in New York City over the course of eight decades. This approach projected heat-related mortality until the end of the 21st century based on observed trends in adaptation over a substantial portion of the 20th century. In addition, we incorporated a range of new scenarios for population change until the end of the 21st century. We then estimated future heat-related deaths in New York City by combining the changing temperature–mortality relationship and population scenarios with downscaled temperature projections from the 33 global climate models (GCMs) and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Results: The median number of projected annual heat-related deaths across the 33 GCMs varied greatly by RCP and adaptation and population change scenario, ranging from 167 to 3,331 in the 2080s compared with 638 heat-related deaths annually between 2000 and 2006. Conclusions: These findings provide a more complete picture of the range of potential future heat-related mortality risks across the 21st century in New York City, and they highlight the importance of both demographic change and adaptation responses in modifying future risks. Citation: Petkova EP, Vink JK, Horton RM, Gasparrini A, Bader DA, Francis JD, Kinney PL. 2017. Towards more comprehensive projections of urban heat-related mortality: estimates for New York City under multiple population, adaptation, and climate scenarios. Environ Health Perspect 125:47–55; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP166 PMID:27337737

Future changes in hydro-climatic extremes in the Upper Indus, Ganges, and Brahmaputra River basins

PubMed Central

Lutz, Arthur F.; Nepal, Santosh; Khanal, Sonu; Pradhananga, Saurav; Shrestha, Arun B.; Immerzeel, Walter W.

2017-01-01

Future hydrological extremes, such as floods and droughts, may pose serious threats for the livelihoods in the upstream domains of the Indus, Ganges, Brahmaputra. For this reason, the impacts of climate change on future hydrological extremes is investigated in these river basins. We use a fully-distributed cryospheric-hydrological model to simulate current and future hydrological fluxes and force the model with an ensemble of 8 downscaled General Circulation Models (GCMs) that are selected from the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The model is calibrated on observed daily discharge and geodetic mass balances. The climate forcing and the outputs of the hydrological model are used to evaluate future changes in climatic extremes, and hydrological extremes by focusing on high and low flows. The outcomes show an increase in the magnitude of climatic means and extremes towards the end of the 21st century where climatic extremes tend to increase stronger than climatic means. Future mean discharge and high flow conditions will very likely increase. These increases might mainly be the result of increasing precipitation extremes. To some extent temperature extremes might also contribute to increasing discharge extremes, although this is highly dependent on magnitude of change in temperature extremes. Low flow conditions may occur less frequently, although the uncertainties in low flow projections can be high. The results of this study may contribute to improved understanding on the implications of climate change for the occurrence of future hydrological extremes in the Hindu Kush–Himalayan region. PMID:29287098

A nonlinear high temperature fracture mechanics basis for strainrange partitioning

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kitamura, Takayuki; Halford, Gary R.

1989-01-01

A direct link was established between Strainrange Partitioning (SRP) and high temperature fracture mechanics by deriving the general SRP inelastic strain range versus cyclic life relationships from high temperature, nonlinear, fracture mechanics considerations. The derived SRP life relationships are in reasonable agreement based on the experience of the SRP behavior of many high temperature alloys. In addition, fracture mechanics has served as a basis for derivation of the Ductility-Normalized SRP life equations, as well as for examination of SRP relations that are applicable to thermal fatigue life prediction. Areas of additional links between nonlinear fracture mechanics and SRP were identified for future exploration. These include effects of multiaxiality as well as low strain, nominally elastic, long life creep fatigue interaction.

Solar Power for Near Sun, High-Temperature Missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Landis, Geoffrey A.

2008-01-01

Existing solar cells lose performance at the high temperatures encountered in Mercury orbit and inward toward the sun. For future missions designed to probe environments close to the sun, it is desirable to develop array technologies for high temperature and high light intensity. Approaches to solar array design for near-sun missions include modifying the terms governing temperature of the cell and the efficiency at elevated temperature, or use of techniques to reduce the incident solar energy to limit operating temperature. An additional problem is found in missions that involve a range of intensities, such as the Solar Probe + mission, which ranges from a starting distance of 1 AU from the sun to a minimum distance of 9.5 solar radii, or 0.044 AU. During the mission, the solar intensity ranges from one to about 500 times AM0. This requires a power system to operate over nearly three orders of magnitude of incident intensity.

Impact of future warming on winter chilling in Australia.

PubMed

Darbyshire, Rebecca; Webb, Leanne; Goodwin, Ian; Barlow, E W R

2013-05-01

Increases in temperature as a result of anthropogenically generated greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are likely to impact key aspects of horticultural production. The potential effect of higher temperatures on fruit and nut trees' ability to break winter dormancy, which requires exposure to winter chilling temperatures, was considered. Three chill models (the 0-7.2°C, Modified Utah, and Dynamic models) were used to investigate changes in chill accumulation at 13 sites across Australia according to localised temperature change related to 1, 2 and 3°C increases in global average temperatures. This methodology avoids reliance on outcomes of future GHG emission pathways, which vary and are likely to change. Regional impacts and rates of decline in chilling differ among the chill models, with the 0-7.2°C model indicating the greatest reduction and the Dynamic model the slowest rate of decline. Elevated and high latitude eastern Australian sites were the least affected while the three more maritime, less elevated Western Australian locations were shown to bear the greatest impact from future warming.

Combustor technology for future small gas turbine aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lyons, Valerie J.; Niedzwiecki, Richard W.

1993-01-01

Future engine cycles proposed for advanced small gas turbine engines will increase the severity of the operating conditions of the combustor. These cycles call for increased overall engine pressure ratios which increase combustor inlet pressure and temperature. Further, the temperature rise through the combustor and the corresponding exit temperature also increase. Future combustor technology needs for small gas turbine engines is described. New fuel injectors with large turndown ratios which produce uniform circumferential and radial temperature patterns will be required. Uniform burning will be of greater importance because hot gas temperatures will approach turbine material limits. The higher combustion temperatures and increased radiation at high pressures will put a greater heat load on the combustor liners. At the same time, less cooling air will be available as more of the air will be used for combustion. Thus, improved cooling concepts and/or materials requiring little or no direct cooling will be required. Although presently there are no requirements for emissions levels from small gas turbine engines, regulation is expected in the near future. This will require the development of low emission combustors. In particular, nitrogen oxides will increase substantially if new technologies limiting their formation are not evolved and implemented. For example, staged combustion employing lean, premixed/prevaporized, lean direct injection, or rich burn-quick quench-lean burn concepts could replace conventional single stage combustors.

Aerobic vs. anaerobic scope: sibling species of fish indicate that temperature dependence of hypoxia tolerance can predict future survival.

PubMed

Sørensen, Christina; Munday, Philip L; Nilsson, Göran E

2014-03-01

The temperature dependence of aerobic scope has been suggested to be a major determinant of how marine animals will cope with future rises in environmental temperature. Here, we present data suggesting that in some animals, the temperature dependence of anaerobic scope (i.e., the capacity for surviving severe hypoxia) may determine present-day latitudinal distributions and potential for persistence in a warmer future. As a model for investigating the role of anaerobic scope, we studied two sibling species of coral-dwelling gobies, Gobiodon histrio, and G. erythrospilus, with different latitudinal distributions, but which overlap in equal abundance at Lizard Island (14°40'S) on the Great Barrier Reef. These species did not differ in the temperature dependence of resting oxygen consumption or critical oxygen concentration (the lowest oxygen level where resting oxygen consumption can be maintained). In contrast, the more equatorial species (G. histrio) had a better capacity to endure anaerobic conditions at oxygen levels below the critical oxygen concentration at the high temperatures (32-33 °C) more likely to occur near the equator, or in a warmer future. These results suggest that anaerobic scope, in addition to aerobic scope, could be important in determining the impacts of global warming on some marine animals. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Consecutive record-breaking high temperatures marked the handover from hiatus to accelerated warming

PubMed Central

Su, Jingzhi; Zhang, Renhe; Wang, Huijun

2017-01-01

Closely following the hiatus warming period, two astonishing high temperature records reached in 2014 and 2015 consecutively. To investigate the occurrence features of record-breaking high temperatures in recent years, a new index focusing the frequency of the top 10 high annual mean temperatures was defined in this study. Analyses based on this index shown that record-breaking high temperatures occurred over most regions of the globe with a salient increasing trend after 1960 s, even during the so-called hiatus period. Overlapped on the ongoing background warming trend and the interdecadal climate variabilities, the El Niño events, particularly the strong ones, can make a significant contribution to the occurrence of high temperatures on interannual timescale. High temperatures associated with El Niño events mainly occurred during the winter annual period. As the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) struggled back to its positive phase since 2014, the global warming returned back to a new accelerated warming period, marked by the record-breaking high temperatures in 2014. Intensified by the super strong El Niño, successive high records occurred in 2015 and 2016. Higher frequencies of record high temperatures would occur in the near future because the PDO tends to maintain a continuously positive phase. PMID:28256561

High temperature composites. Status and future directions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Signorelli, R. A.

1982-01-01

A summary of research investigations of manufacturing methods, fabrication methods, and testing of high temperature composites for use in gas turbine engines is presented. Ceramic/ceramic, ceramic/metal, and metal/metal composites are considered. Directional solidification of superalloys and eutectic alloys, fiber reinforced metal and ceramic composites, ceramic fibers and whiskers, refractory coatings, metal fiber/metal composites, matrix metal selection, and the preparation of test specimens are discussed.

Development of High Temperature SiC Based Hydrogen/Hydrocarbon Sensors with Bond Pads for Packaging

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Xu, Jennifer C.; Hunter, Gary W.; Chen, Liangyu; Biagi-Labiosa, Azlin M.; Ward, Benjamin J.; Lukco, Dorothy; Gonzalez, Jose M., III; Lampard, Peter S.; Artale, Michael A.; Hampton, Christopher L.

2011-01-01

This paper describes efforts towards the transition of existing high temperature hydrogen and hydrocarbon Schottky diode sensor elements to packaged sensor structures that can be integrated into a testing system. Sensor modifications and the technical challenges involved are discussed. Testing of the sensors at 500 C or above is also presented along with plans for future development.

Pseudo-icosahedral Cr55Al232 -δ as a high-temperature protective material

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosa, R.; Bhattacharya, S.; Pabla, J.; He, H.; Misuraca, J.; Nakajima, Y.; Bender, A. D.; Antonacci, A. K.; Adrip, W.; McNally, D. E.; Zebro, A.; Kamenov, P.; Geschwind, G.; Ghose, S.; Dooryhee, E.; Ibrahim, A.; Tritt, T. M.; Aronson, M. C.; Simonson, J. W.

2018-03-01

We report here a course of basic research into the potential suitability of a pseudo-icosahedral Cr aluminide as a material for high-temperature protective coatings. Cr55Al232 -δ [ δ =2.70 (6 ) ] exhibits high hardness at room temperature as well as low thermal conductivity and excellent oxidation resistance at 973 K, with an oxidation rate comparable to those of softer, denser benchmark materials. The origin of these promising properties can be traced to competing long-range and short-range symmetries within the pseudo-icosahedral crystal structure, suggesting new criteria for future materials research.

Projection of future temperature-related mortality due to climate and demographic changes.

PubMed

Lee, Jae Young; Kim, Ho

2016-09-01

Understanding the effects of global climate change from both environmental and human health perspectives has gained great importance. Particularly, studies on the direct effect of temperature increase on future mortality have been conducted. However, few of those studies considered population changes, and although the world population is rapidly aging, no previous study considered the effect of society aging. Here we present a projection of future temperature-related mortality due to both climate and demographic changes in seven major cities of South Korea, a fast aging country, until 2100; we used the HadGEM3-RA model under four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) and the United Nations world population prospects under three fertility scenarios (high, medium, and low). The results showed markedly increased mortality in the elderly group, significantly increasing the overall future mortality. In 2090s, South Korea could experience a four- to six-time increase in temperature-related mortality compared to that during 1992-2010 under four different RCP scenarios and three different fertility variants, while the mortality is estimated to increase only by 0.5 to 1.5 times assuming no population aging. Therefore, not considering population aging may significantly underestimate temperature risks. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Methane heat transfer investigation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1984-01-01

Future high chamber pressure LOX/hydrocarbon booster engines require copper base alloy main combustion chamber coolant channels similar to the SSME to provide adequate cooling and reusable engine life. Therefore, it is of vital importance to evaluate the heat transfer characteristics and coking thresholds for LNG (94% methane) cooling, with a copper base alloy material adjacent to he fuel coolant. High pressure methane cooling and coking characteristics recently evaluated at Rocketdyne using stainless steel heated tubes at methane bulk temperatures and coolant wall temperatures typical of advanced engine operation except at lower heat fluxes as limited by the tube material. As expected, there was no coking observed. However, coking evaluations need be conducted with a copper base surface exposed to the methane coolant at higher heat fluxes approaching those of future high chamber pressure engines.

Development of a new methodology for the creation of water temperature scenarios using frequency analysis tool.

PubMed

Val, Jonatan; Pino, María Rosa; Chinarro, David

2018-03-15

Thermal quality in river ecosystems is a fundamental property for the development of biological processes and many of the human activities linked to the aquatic environment. In the future, this property is going to be threatened due to global change impacts, and basin managers will need useful tools to evaluate these impacts. Currently, future projections in temperature modelling are based on the historical data for air and water temperatures, and the relationship with past temperature scenarios; however, this represents a problem when evaluating future scenarios with new thermal impacts. Here, we analysed the thermal impacts produced by several human activities, and linked them with the decoupling degree of the thermal transfer mechanism from natural systems measured with frequency analysis tools (wavelet coherence). Once this relationship has been established we develop a new methodology for simulating different thermal impacts scenarios in order to project them into future. Finally, we validate this methodology using a site that changed its thermal quality during the studied period due to human impacts. Results showed a high correlation (r 2 =0.84) between the decoupling degree of the thermal transfer mechanisms and the quantified human impacts, obtaining 3 thermal impact scenarios. Furthermore, the graphic representation of these thermal scenarios with its wavelet coherence spectrums showed the impacts of an extreme drought period and the agricultural management. The inter-conversion between the scenarios gave high morphological similarities in the obtained wavelet coherence spectrums, and the validation process clearly showed high efficiency of the developed model against old methodologies when comparing with Nash-Stucliffe criterion. Although there is need for further investigation with different climatic and anthropic management conditions, the developed frequency models could be useful in decision-making processes by managers when faced with future global change impacts. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Large-Scale Atmospheric Circulation Patterns Associated with Temperature Extremes as a Basis for Model Evaluation: Methodological Overview and Results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loikith, P. C.; Broccoli, A. J.; Waliser, D. E.; Lintner, B. R.; Neelin, J. D.

2015-12-01

Anomalous large-scale circulation patterns often play a key role in the occurrence of temperature extremes. For example, large-scale circulation can drive horizontal temperature advection or influence local processes that lead to extreme temperatures, such as by inhibiting moderating sea breezes, promoting downslope adiabatic warming, and affecting the development of cloud cover. Additionally, large-scale circulation can influence the shape of temperature distribution tails, with important implications for the magnitude of future changes in extremes. As a result of the prominent role these patterns play in the occurrence and character of extremes, the way in which temperature extremes change in the future will be highly influenced by if and how these patterns change. It is therefore critical to identify and understand the key patterns associated with extremes at local to regional scales in the current climate and to use this foundation as a target for climate model validation. This presentation provides an overview of recent and ongoing work aimed at developing and applying novel approaches to identifying and describing the large-scale circulation patterns associated with temperature extremes in observations and using this foundation to evaluate state-of-the-art global and regional climate models. Emphasis is given to anomalies in sea level pressure and 500 hPa geopotential height over North America using several methods to identify circulation patterns, including self-organizing maps and composite analysis. Overall, evaluation results suggest that models are able to reproduce observed patterns associated with temperature extremes with reasonable fidelity in many cases. Model skill is often highest when and where synoptic-scale processes are the dominant mechanisms for extremes, and lower where sub-grid scale processes (such as those related to topography) are important. Where model skill in reproducing these patterns is high, it can be inferred that extremes are being simulated for plausible physical reasons, boosting confidence in future projections of temperature extremes. Conversely, where model skill is identified to be lower, caution should be exercised in interpreting future projections.

Australian snowpack in the NARCliM ensemble: evaluation, bias correction and future projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luca, Alejandro Di; Evans, Jason P.; Ji, Fei

2017-10-01

In this study we evaluate the ability of an ensemble of high-resolution Regional Climate Model simulations to represent snow cover characteristics over the Australian Alps and go on to asses future projections of snowpack characteristics. Our results show that the ensemble presents a cold temperature bias and overestimates total precipitation leading to a general overestimation of the snow cover as compared with MODIS satellite data. We then produce a new set of snowpack characteristics by running a temperature based snow melt/accumulation model forced by bias corrected temperature and precipitation fields. While some positive snow cover biases remain, the bias corrected (BC) dataset show large improvements regarding the simulation of total amounts, seasonality and spatial distribution of the snow cover compared with MODIS products. Both the raw and BC datasets are then used to assess future changes in the snowpack characteristics. Both datasets show robust increases in near-surface temperatures and decreases in snowfall that lead to a substantial reduction of the snowpack over the Australian Alps. The snowpack decreases by about 15 and 60% by 2030 and 2070 respectively. While the BC data introduce large differences in the simulation of the present climate snowpack, in relative terms future changes appear to be similar to those obtained using the raw data. Future temperature projections show a clear dependence with elevation through the snow-albedo feedback effect that affects snowpack projections. Uncertainties in future projections of the snowpack are large in both datasets and are mainly dominated by the choice of the lateral boundary conditions.

The high-performance liquid chromatography/multistage electrospray mass spectrometric investigation and extraction optimization of beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) bark polyphenols.

PubMed

Hofmann, Tamás; Nebehaj, Esztella; Albert, Levente

2015-05-08

The aim of the present work was the high-performance liquid chromatographic separation and multistage mass spectrometric characterization of the polyphenolic compounds of beech bark, as well as the extraction optimization of the identified compounds. Beech is a common and widely used material in the wood industry, yet its bark is regarded as a by-product. Using appropriate extraction methods these compounds could be extracted and utilized in the future. Different extraction methods (stirring, sonication, microwave assisted extraction) using different solvents (water, methanol:water 80:20 v/v, ethanol:water 80:20 v/v) and time/temperature schedules have been compared basing on total phenol contents (Folin-Ciocâlteu) and MRM peak areas of the identified compounds to investigate optimum extraction efficiency. Altogether 37 compounds, including (+)-catechin, (-)-epicatechin, quercetin-O-hexoside, taxifolin-O-hexosides (3), taxifolin-O-pentosides (4), B-type (6) and C-type (6) procyanidins, syringic acid- and coumaric acid-di-O-glycosides, coniferyl alcohol- and sinapyl alcohol-glycosides, as well as other unknown compounds with defined [M-H](-) m/z values and MS/MS spectra have been tentatively identified. The choice of the method, solvent system and time/temperature parameters favors the extraction of different types of compounds. Pure water can extract compounds as efficiently as mixtures containing organic solvents under high-pressure and high temperature conditions. This supports the implementation of green extraction methods in the future. Extraction times that are too long and high temperatures can result in the decrease of the concentrations. Future investigations will focus on the evaluation of the antioxidant capacity and utilization possibilities of the prepared extracts. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Thermal Conductivity of Advanced Ceramic Thermal Barrier Coatings Determined by a Steady-state Laser Heat-flux Approach

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zhu, Dong-Ming; Miller, Robert A.

2004-01-01

The development of low conductivity and high temperature capable thermal barrier coatings requires advanced testing techniques that can accurately and effectively evaluate coating thermal conductivity under future high-performance and low-emission engine heat-flux conditions. In this paper, a unique steady-state CO2 laser (wavelength 10.6 microns) heat-flux approach is described for determining the thermal conductivity and conductivity deduced cyclic durability of ceramic thermal and environmental barrier coating systems at very high temperatures (up to 1700 C) under large thermal gradients. The thermal conductivity behavior of advanced thermal and environmental barrier coatings for metallic and Si-based ceramic matrix composite (CMC) component applications has also been investigated using the laser conductivity approach. The relationships between the lattice and radiation conductivities as a function of heat flux and thermal gradient at high temperatures have been examined for the ceramic coating systems. The steady-state laser heat-flux conductivity approach has been demonstrated as a viable means for the development and life prediction of advanced thermal barrier coatings for future turbine engine applications.

Changes in Urban Climate due to Future Land-Use Changes based on Population Changes in the Nagoya Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adachi, S. A.; Hara, M.; Takahashi, H. G.; Ma, X.; Yoshikane, T.; Kimura, F.

2013-12-01

Severe hot weather in summer season becomes a big social problem in metropolitan areas, including the Nagoya region in Japan. Surface air temperature warming is projected in the future. Therefore, the reduction of surface air temperature is an urgent issue in the urban area. Although there are several studies dealing with the effects of global climate change and urbanization to the local climate in the future, these studies tend to ignore the future population changes. This study estimates future land-use scenarios associated with the multi-projections of future population and investigates the impacts of these scenarios on the surface temperature change. The Weather Research and Forecast model ver. 3.3.1 (hereafter, WRF) was used in this study. The horizontal resolutions were 20km, 4km, and 2km, for outer, middle, and inner domains, respectively. The results from the inner domain, covering the Nagoya region, were used for the analysis. The Noah land surface model and the single-layer urban canopy model were applied to calculate the land surface processes and urban surface processes, respectively. The initial and boundary conditions were given from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data in August 2010. The urban area ratio used in the WRF model was calculated from the future land-use data provided by the S8 project. The land-use data was created as follows. (1) Three scenarios of population, namely, with high-fertility assumption and low-mortality assumption (POP-high), with medium-fertility assumption and medium-mortality assumption (POP-med), and with low-fertility assumption and high-mortality assumption (POP-low), are estimated using the method proposed by Ariga and Matsuhashi (2012). These scenarios are based on the future projections provided by the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research. (2) The future changes in urban area ratio were assumed to be proportional to the population change (Hanasaki et al., 2012). The averaged urban area ratio in the Nagoya region was 0.37 in 2010. The area ratios were projected to reach a peak in 2010 to 2020, and then to decrease in the future in all of scenarios. The urban heat island intensity in the Nagoya region is about 1.5°C in 2010. In contrast, the differences of surface temperature is -0.17°C, -0.21°C, and -0.30°C in POP-high, POP-med, and POP-low, from the current situation in 2010. These impacts correspond to the 10% to 20% of current urban heat island intensity. However, the changes in the efficiency of energy consumption were not considered. Considering that the future surface temperature change is projected to be about 1.2°C to 4°C in 2070, it is required to quantitatively evaluate future urban scenarios including the mitigation strategies for urban heat island such as the improvement of energy consumption, greening, and so on. Acknowledgments. This study was supported by the Research Program on Climate Change Adaptation (RECCA) Fund by Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT) of Japan and the Global Environment Research Fund (S-8) of the Ministry of the Environment of Japan.

Advanced Control Surface Seal Development for Future Space Vehicles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

DeMange, Jeffrey J.; Dunlap, Patrick H., Jr.; Steinetz, Bruce M.

2004-01-01

High temperature control surface seals have been identified as a critical technology in the development of future space vehicles. These seals must withstand temperatures of up to 2600 F and protect underlying temperature-sensitive structures (such as actuators and sealing capability by remaining resilient during flight conditions. The current baseline seal, used on the Shuttle orbiters and the X-38 vehicle, consists of a Nextel 312 sheath, an internal Inconel X-750 knitted spring tube, and hand-stuffed Saffil batting. Unfortunately at high temperatures (> 1500 F), the seal resiliency significantly degrades due to yielding and creep of the spring tube element. The permanent set in the seals can result in flow passing over the seals and subsequent damage to temperature sensitive components downstream of the seals. Another shortcoming of the baseline seal is that instances have been reported on Shuttle flights where some of the hand-stuffed Saffil batting insulation has been extracted, thus potentially compromising the seal. In vehicles where the thermal protection systems are delicate (such as with Shuttle tiles), the control surface seals must also limit the amount of force applied to the opposing surfaces. Additionally, in many applications the seals are subjected to scrubbing as control surfaces are actuated. The seals must be able to withstand any damage resulting from this high temperature scrubbing and retain their heat/flow blocking abilities.

Effects of Genotype and Growth Temperature on the Contents of Tannin, Phytate and In Vitro Iron Availability of Sorghum Grains

PubMed Central

Wu, Gangcheng; Johnson, Stuart K.; Bornman, Janet F.; Bennett, Sarita J.; Singh, Vijaya; Simic, Azra; Fang, Zhongxiang

2016-01-01

Background It has been predicted that the global temperature will rise in the future, which means crops including sorghum will likely be grown under higher temperatures, and consequently may affect the nutritional properties. Methods The effects of two growth temperatures (OT, day/night 32/21°C; HT 38/21°C) on tannin, phytate, mineral, and in vitro iron availability of raw and cooked grains (as porridge) of six sorghum genotypes were investigated. Results Tannin content significantly decreased across all sorghum genotypes under high growth temperature (P ≤0.05), while the phytate and mineral contents maintained the same level, increased or decreased significantly, depending on the genotype. The in vitro iron availability in most sorghum genotypes was also significantly reduced under high temperature, except for Ai4, which showed a pronounced increase (P ≤0.05). The cooking process significantly reduced tannin content in all sorghum genotypes (P ≤0.05), while the phytate content and in vitro iron availability were not significantly affected. Conclusions This research provides some new information on sorghum grain nutritional properties when grown under predicted future higher temperatures, which could be important for humans where sorghum grains are consumed as staple food. PMID:26859483

Statistical downscaling and future scenario generation of temperatures for Pakistan Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kazmi, Dildar Hussain; Li, Jianping; Rasul, Ghulam; Tong, Jiang; Ali, Gohar; Cheema, Sohail Babar; Liu, Luliu; Gemmer, Marco; Fischer, Thomas

2015-04-01

Finer climate change information on spatial scale is required for impact studies than that presently provided by global or regional climate models. It is especially true for regions like South Asia with complex topography, coastal or island locations, and the areas of highly heterogeneous land-cover. To deal with the situation, an inexpensive method (statistical downscaling) has been adopted. Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM) employed for downscaling of daily minimum and maximum temperature data of 44 national stations for base time (1961-1990) and then the future scenarios generated up to 2099. Observed as well as Predictors (product of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) data were calibrated and tested on individual/multiple basis through linear regression. Future scenario was generated based on HadCM3 daily data for A2 and B2 story lines. The downscaled data has been tested, and it has shown a relatively strong relationship with the observed in comparison to ECHAM5 data. Generally, the southern half of the country is considered vulnerable in terms of increasing temperatures, but the results of this study projects that in future, the northern belt in particular would have a possible threat of increasing tendency in air temperature. Especially, the northern areas (hosting the third largest ice reserves after the Polar Regions), an important feeding source for Indus River, are projected to be vulnerable in terms of increasing temperatures. Consequently, not only the hydro-agricultural sector but also the environmental conditions in the area may be at risk, in future.

Advanced Power Electronics Components

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schwarze, Gene E.

2004-01-01

This paper will give a description and status of the Advanced Power Electronics Materials and Components Technology program being conducted by the NASA Glenn Research Center for future aerospace power applications. The focus of this research program is on the following: 1) New and/or significantly improved dielectric materials for the development of power capacitors with increased volumetric efficiency, energy density, and operating temperature. Materials being investigated include nanocrystalline and composite ceramic dielectrics and diamond-like carbon films; 2) New and/or significantly improved high frequency, high temperature, low loss soft magnetic materials for the development of transformers/inductors with increased power/energy density, electrical efficiency, and operating temperature. Materials being investigated include nanocrystalline and nanocomposite soft magnetic materials; 3) Packaged high temperature, high power density, high voltage, and low loss SiC diodes and switches. Development of high quality 4H- and 6H- SiC atomically smooth substrates to significantly improve device performance is a major emphasis of the SiC materials program; 4) Demonstration of high temperature (> 200 C) circuits using the components developed above.

Temperature Resistant Fiber Bragg Gratings for On-Line and Structural Health Monitoring of the Next-Generation of Nuclear Reactors.

PubMed

Laffont, Guillaume; Cotillard, Romain; Roussel, Nicolas; Desmarchelier, Rudy; Rougeault, Stéphane

2018-06-02

The harsh environment associated with the next generation of nuclear reactors is a great challenge facing all new sensing technologies to be deployed for on-line monitoring purposes and for the implantation of SHM methods. Sensors able to resist sustained periods at very high temperatures continuously as is the case within sodium-cooled fast reactors require specific developments and evaluations. Among the diversity of optical fiber sensing technologies, temperature resistant fiber Bragg gratings are increasingly being considered for the instrumentation of future nuclear power plants, especially for components exposed to high temperature and high radiation levels. Research programs are supporting the developments of optical fiber sensors under mixed high temperature and radiative environments leading to significant increase in term of maturity. This paper details the development of temperature-resistant wavelength-multiplexed fiber Bragg gratings for temperature and strain measurements and their characterization for on-line monitoring into the liquid sodium used as a coolant for the next generation of fast reactors.

Historical warnings of future food insecurity with unprecedented seasonal heat.

PubMed

Battisti, David S; Naylor, Rosamond L

2009-01-09

Higher growing season temperatures can have dramatic impacts on agricultural productivity, farm incomes, and food security. We used observational data and output from 23 global climate models to show a high probability (>90%) that growing season temperatures in the tropics and subtropics by the end of the 21st century will exceed the most extreme seasonal temperatures recorded from 1900 to 2006. In temperate regions, the hottest seasons on record will represent the future norm in many locations. We used historical examples to illustrate the magnitude of damage to food systems caused by extreme seasonal heat and show that these short-run events could become long-term trends without sufficient investments in adaptation.

Stirling Convertor Performance Mapping Test Results for Future Radioisotope Power Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qiu, Songgang; Peterson, Allen A.; Faultersack, Franklyn D.; Redinger, Darin L.; Augenblick, John E.

2004-02-01

Long-life radioisotope-fueled generators based on free-piston Stirling convertors are an energy-conversion solution for future space applications. The high efficiency of Stirling machines makes them more attractive than the thermoelectric generators currently used in space. Stirling Technology Company (STC) has been performance-testing its Stirling generators to provide data for potential system integration contractors. This paper describes the most recent test results from the STC RemoteGen™ 55 W-class Stirling generators (RG-55). Comparisons are made between the new data and previous Stirling thermodynamic simulation models. Performance-mapping tests are presented including variations in: internal charge pressure, cold end temperature, hot end temperature, alternator temperature, input power, and variation of control voltage.

High Temperature Propulsion System Structural Seals for Future Space Launch Vehicles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dunlap, Patrick H., Jr.; Steinetz, Bruce M.; DeMange, Jeffrey J.

2003-01-01

Durable, flexible sliding seals are required in advanced hypersonic engines to seal the perimeters of movable engine ramps for efficient, safe operation in high heat flux environments at temperatures of 2000 to 2500 F. Current seal designs do not meet the demanding requirements for future engines, so NASA's Glenn Research Center is developing advanced seals and preloading devices to overcome these shortfalls. An advanced ceramic wafer seal design and two types of seal preloading devices were evaluated in a series of compression, scrub, and flow tests. Silicon nitride wafer seals survived 2000 in. (1000 cycles) of scrubbing at room temperature against an Inconel 625 rub surface with no chips or signs of damage. Flow rates measured for the wafers before and after scrubbing were almost identical and were much lower than those recorded for the best braided rope seal flow blockers. Canted coil springs and silicon nitride compression springs showed promise conceptually as potential seal preloading devices to help maintain seal resiliency. A finite element model of the canted coil spring revealed that it should be possible to produce a spring out of high temperature materials for applications at 2000+ F.

Performance and Reliability of Bonded Interfaces for High-temperature Packaging: Annual Progress Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

DeVoto, Douglas J.

2017-10-19

As maximum device temperatures approach 200 °Celsius, continuous operation, sintered silver materials promise to maintain bonds at these high temperatures without excessive degradation rates. A detailed characterization of the thermal performance and reliability of sintered silver materials and processes has been initiated for the next year. Future steps in crack modeling include efforts to simulate crack propagation directly using the extended finite element method (X-FEM), a numerical technique that uses the partition of unity method for modeling discontinuities such as cracks in a system.

Native and exotic plant cover vary inversely along a climate gradient 11 years following stand-replacing wildfire in a dry coniferous forest, Oregon, USA.

PubMed

Dodson, Erich K; Root, Heather T

2015-02-01

Community re-assembly following future disturbances will often occur under warmer and more moisture-limited conditions than when current communities assembled. Because the establishment stage is regularly the most sensitive to climate and competition, the trajectory of recovery from disturbance in a changing environment is uncertain, but has important consequences for future ecosystem functioning. To better understand how ongoing warming and rising moisture limitation may affect recovery, we studied native and exotic plant composition 11 years following complete stand-replacing wildfire in a dry coniferous forest spanning a large gradient in climatic moisture deficit (CMD) from warm and dry low elevation sites to relatively cool and moist higher elevations sites. We then projected future precipitation, temperature and CMD at our study locations for four scenarios selected to encompass a broad range of possible future conditions for the region. Native perennials dominated relatively cool and moist sites 11 years after wildfire, but were very sparse at the warmest and driest (high CMD) sites, particularly when combined with high topographic sun exposure. In contrast, exotic species (primarily annual grasses) were dominant or co-dominant at the warmest and driest sites, especially with high topographic sun exposure. All future scenarios projected increasing temperature and CMD in coming decades (e.g., from 4.5% to 29.5% higher CMD by the 2080's compared to the 1971-2000 average), even in scenarios where growing season (May-September) precipitation increased. These results suggest increasing temperatures and moisture limitation could facilitate longer term (over a decade) transitions toward exotic-dominated communities after severe wildfire when a suitable exotic seed source is present. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Future heat waves and surface ozone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meehl, Gerald A.; Tebaldi, Claudia; Tilmes, Simone; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Bates, Susan; Pendergrass, Angeline; Lombardozzi, Danica

2018-06-01

A global Earth system model is used to study the relationship between heat waves and surface ozone levels over land areas around the world that could experience either large decreases or little change in future ozone precursor emissions. The model is driven by emissions of greenhouse gases and ozone precursors from a medium-high emission scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway 6.0–RCP6.0) and is compared to an experiment with anthropogenic ozone precursor emissions fixed at 2005 levels. With ongoing increases in greenhouse gases and corresponding increases in average temperature in both experiments, heat waves are projected to become more intense over most global land areas (greater maximum temperatures during heat waves). However, surface ozone concentrations on future heat wave days decrease proportionately more than on non-heat wave days in areas where ozone precursors are prescribed to decrease in RCP6.0 (e.g. most of North America and Europe), while surface ozone concentrations in heat waves increase in areas where ozone precursors either increase or have little change (e.g. central Asia, the Mideast, northern Africa). In the stabilized ozone precursor experiment, surface ozone concentrations increase on future heat wave days compared to non-heat wave days in most regions except in areas where there is ozone suppression that contributes to decreases in ozone in future heat waves. This is likely associated with effects of changes in isoprene emissions at high temperatures (e.g. west coast and southeastern North America, eastern Europe).

Sensitivity of crop cover to climate variability: insights from two Indian agro-ecoregions.

PubMed

Mondal, Pinki; Jain, Meha; DeFries, Ruth S; Galford, Gillian L; Small, Christopher

2015-01-15

Crop productivity in India varies greatly with inter-annual climate variability and is highly dependent on monsoon rainfall and temperature. The sensitivity of yields to future climate variability varies with crop type, access to irrigation and other biophysical and socio-economic factors. To better understand sensitivities to future climate, this study focuses on agro-ecological subregions in Central and Western India that span a range of crops, irrigation, biophysical conditions and socioeconomic characteristics. Climate variability is derived from remotely-sensed data products, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM - precipitation) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS - temperature). We examined green-leaf phenologies as proxy for crop productivity using the MODIS Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) from 2000 to 2012. Using both monsoon and winter growing seasons, we assessed phenological sensitivity to inter-annual variability in precipitation and temperature patterns. Inter-annual EVI phenology anomalies ranged from -25% to 25%, with some highly anomalous values up to 200%. Monsoon crop phenology in the Central India site is highly sensitive to climate, especially the timing of the start and end of the monsoon and intensity of precipitation. In the Western India site, monsoon crop phenology is less sensitive to precipitation variability, yet shows considerable fluctuations in monsoon crop productivity across the years. Temperature is critically important for winter productivity across a range of crop and management types, such that irrigation might not provide a sufficient buffer against projected temperature increases. Better access to weather information and usage of climate-resilient crop types would play pivotal role in maintaining future productivity. Effective strategies to adapt to projected climate changes in the coming decades would also need to be tailored to regional biophysical and socio-economic conditions. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Screening of High Temperature Organic Materials for Future Stirling Convertors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shin, Euy-sik E.; Scheiman, Daniel A.

2017-01-01

Along with major advancement of Stirling-based convertors, high temperature organics are needed to develop future higher temperature convertors for much improved efficiencies as well as to improve the margin of reliability for the current SOA (State-of-the-Art) convertors. The higher temperature capabilities would improve robustness of the convertors and also allow them to be used in additional missions, particularly ones that require a Venus flyby for a gravity assist. Various organic materials have been employed as essential components in the convertor for their unique properties and functions such as bonding, potting, sealing, thread locking, insulation, and lubrication. The Stirling convertor radioisotope generators have been developed for potential future space applications including Lunar/Mars surface power or a variety of spacecraft and vehicles, especially with a long mission cycle, sometimes up to 17 years, such as deep space exploration. Thus, performance, durability, and reliability of the organics should be critically evaluated in terms of every possible material structure-process-service environment relations based on the potential mission specifications. The initial efforts in screening the high temperature candidates focused on the most susceptible organics, such as adhesive, potting compound, O-ring, shrink tubing, and thread locker materials in conjunction with commercially available materials. More systematic and practical test methodologies that were developed and optimized based on the extensive organic evaluations and validations performed for various Stirling convertor types were employed to determine thermal stability, outgassing, and material compatibility of the selected organic candidates against their functional requirements. Processing and fabrication conditions and procedures were also optimized. This report presents results of the three-step candidate evaluation processes, their application limitations, and the final selection recommendations.

Densities and temperatures in the polar thermosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gardner, L. J.

1977-01-01

The atomic oxygen density at 120 km, the 630 nm airglow temperature, the helium density at 300 km and the molecular nitrogen density near 400 km were examined as functions of geomagnetic latitude, geomagnetic time, season and magnetic activity level. The long-term averages of these quantities were examined so as to provide a baseline of these thermospheric parameters from which future studies may be made for comparison. The hours around magnetic noon are characterized by low temperatures, high 0 and He densities, and median nitrogen densities. The pre-midnight hours exhibit high temperatures, high He density, low nitrogen density and median 0 densities. The post-midnight sector shows low 0 and He densities, median temperatures and high nitrogen densities. These results are compared to recent models and observations and are discussed with respect to their causes due to divergence of the wind field and energy deposition in the thermosphere.

Heat pipe radiator technology for space power systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carlson, A. W.; Gustafson, E.; Ercegovic, B. A.

1986-01-01

High-reliability high-performance deployable monogroove and dual-slot heat pipe radiator systems to meet the requirements for electric power in future space missions, such as the 300-kW(e) electric powder demand projected for NASA's Space Station, are discussed. Analytical model trade studies of various configurations show the advantages of the dual-slot heat pipe radiator for high temperature applications as well as its weight reduction potential over the 50-350 F temperature range. The ammonia-aluminum monogroove heat pipe, limited to below-180 F operating temperatures, is under development, and can employ methanol-stainless steel heat pipes to achieve operating temperatures in excess of 300 F. Dual-slot heat pipe configuration proof-of-concept testing was begun in 1985.

Pseudo-icosahedral Cr 55 Al 232 - δ as a high-temperature protective material

DOE PAGES

Rosa, R.; Bhattacharya, S.; Pabla, J.; ...

2018-03-19

In this paper, we report here a course of basic research into the potential suitability of a pseudo-icosahedral Cr aluminide as a material for high temperature protective coatings. Cr 55Al 232-δ [δ = 2.70(6)] exhibits high hardness at room temperature as well as low thermal conductivity and excellent oxidation resistance at 973 K, with an oxidation rate comparable to those of softer, denser benchmark materials. Lastly, the origin of these promising properties can be traced to competing long-range and short-range symmetries within the pseudo-icosahedral crystal structure, suggesting new criteria for future materials research.

Performance evaluation of thermophotovoltaic GaSb cell technology in high temperature waste heat

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Utlu, Z.; Önal, B. S.

2018-02-01

In this study, waste heat was evaluated and examined by means of thermophotovoltaic systems with the application of energy production potential GaSb cells. The aim of our study is to examine GaSb cell technology at high temperature waste heat. The evaluation of the waste heat to be used in the system is designed to be used in the electricity, industry and iron and steel industry. Our work is research. Graphic analysis is done with Matlab program. The high temperature waste heat graphs applied on the GaSb cell are in the results section. Our study aims to provide a source for future studies.

Pseudo-icosahedral Cr 55 Al 232 - δ as a high-temperature protective material

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rosa, R.; Bhattacharya, S.; Pabla, J.

In this paper, we report here a course of basic research into the potential suitability of a pseudo-icosahedral Cr aluminide as a material for high temperature protective coatings. Cr 55Al 232-δ [δ = 2.70(6)] exhibits high hardness at room temperature as well as low thermal conductivity and excellent oxidation resistance at 973 K, with an oxidation rate comparable to those of softer, denser benchmark materials. Lastly, the origin of these promising properties can be traced to competing long-range and short-range symmetries within the pseudo-icosahedral crystal structure, suggesting new criteria for future materials research.

Surface Temperature Mapping of the University of Northern Iowa Campus Using High Resolution Thermal Infrared Aerial Imageries

PubMed Central

Savelyev, Alexander; Sugumaran, Ramanathan

2008-01-01

The goal of this project was to map the surface temperature of the University of Northern Iowa campus using high-resolution thermal infrared aerial imageries. A thermal camera with a spectral bandwidth of 3.0-5.0 μm was flown at the average altitude of 600 m, achieving ground resolution of 29 cm. Ground control data was used to construct the pixel- to-temperature conversion model, which was later used to produce temperature maps of the entire campus and also for validation of the model. The temperature map then was used to assess the building rooftop conditions and steam line faults in the study area. Assessment of the temperature map revealed a number of building structures that may be subject to insulation improvement due to their high surface temperatures leaks. Several hot spots were also identified on the campus for steam pipelines faults. High-resolution thermal infrared imagery proved highly effective tool for precise heat anomaly detection on the campus, and it can be used by university facility services for effective future maintenance of buildings and grounds. PMID:27873800

High Temperature Piezoelectric Drill

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bao, Xiaoqi; Scott, James; Boudreau, Kate; Bar-Cohen, Yoseph; Sherrit, Stewart; Badescu, Mircea; Shrout, Tom; Zhang, Shujun

2009-01-01

The current NASA Decadal mission planning effort has identified Venus as a significant scientific target for a surface in-situ sampling/analyzing mission. The Venus environment represents several extremes including high temperature (460 deg C), high pressure (9 MPa), and potentially corrosive (condensed sulfuric acid droplets that adhere to surfaces during entry) environments. This technology challenge requires new rock sampling tools for these extreme conditions. Piezoelectric materials can potentially operate over a wide temperature range. Single crystals, like LiNbO3, have a Curie temperature that is higher than 1000 deg C and the piezoelectric ceramics Bismuth Titanate higher than 600 deg C. A study of the feasibility of producing piezoelectric drills that can operate in the temperature range up to 500 deg C was conducted. The study includes the high temperature properties investigations of engineering materials and piezoelectric ceramics with different formulas and doping. The drilling performances of a prototype Ultrasonic/Sonic Drill/Corer (USDC) using high temperate piezoelectric ceramics and single crystal were tested at temperature up to 500 deg C. The detailed results of our study and a discussion of the future work on performance improvements are presented in this paper.

Ultrasonic/Sonic Drill for High Temperature Application

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bao, Xiaoqi; Bar-Cohen, Yoseph; Scott, James; Sherrit, Stewart; Widholm, Scott; Badescu, Mircea; Shrout, Tom; Jones, Beth

2010-01-01

Venus is one of the many significant scientific targets for NASA. New rock sampling tools with the ability to be operated at high temperatures of the order of 460 deg C are required for surface in-situ sampling/analysis missions. Piezoelectric materials such as LiNbO? crystals and Bismuth Titanate are potentially operational at the temperature range found on the surface of Venus. A study of the feasibility of producing piezoelectric drills for a temperature up to 500 deg C was conducted. The study includes investigation of the high temperature properties of piezoelectric crystals and ceramics with different formulas and doping. Several prototypes of Ultrasonic/Sonic Drill/Corers (USDC) driven by transducers using the high temperate piezoelectric ceramics and single LiNbO? crystal were fabricated. The transducers were analyzed by scanning the impedance at room temperature and 500 deg C under both low and high voltages. The drilling performances were tested at temperature up to 500 deg C. Preliminary results were previously reported [Bao et al, 2009]. In this paper, the progress is presented and the future works for performance improvements are discussed.

Quantifying the intra-annual uncertainties in climate change assessment over 10 sub-basins across the Pacific Northwest US

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahmadalipour, Ali; Moradkhani, Hamid; Rana, Arun

2017-04-01

Uncertainty is an inevitable feature of climate change impact assessments. Understanding and quantifying different sources of uncertainty is of high importance, which can help modeling agencies improve the current models and scenarios. In this study, we have assessed the future changes in three climate variables (i.e. precipitation, maximum temperature, and minimum temperature) over 10 sub-basins across the Pacific Northwest US. To conduct the study, 10 statistically downscaled CMIP5 GCMs from two downscaling methods (i.e. BCSD and MACA) were utilized at 1/16 degree spatial resolution for the historical period of 1970-2000 and future period of 2010-2099. For the future projections, two future scenarios of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 were used. Furthermore, Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) was employed to develop a probabilistic future projection for each climate variable. Results indicate superiority of BMA simulations compared to individual models. Increasing temperature and precipitation are projected at annual timescale. However, the changes are not uniform among different seasons. Model uncertainty shows to be the major source of uncertainty, while downscaling uncertainty significantly contributes to the total uncertainty, especially in summer.

Evaluation of climatic changes in South-Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kjellstrom, Erik; Rana, Arun; Grigory, Nikulin; Renate, Wilcke; Hansson, Ulf; Kolax, Michael

2016-04-01

Literature has sufficient evidences of climate change impact all over the world and its impact on various sectors. In light of new advancements made in climate modeling, availability of several climate downscaling approaches, the more robust bias correction methods with varying complexities and strengths, in the present study we performed a systematic evaluation of climate change impact over South-Asia region. We have used different Regional Climate Models (RCMs) (from CORDEX domain), (Global Climate Models GCMs) and gridded observations for the study area to evaluate the models in historical/control period (1980-2010) and changes in future period (2010-2099). Firstly, GCMs and RCMs are evaluated against the Gridded observational datasets in the area using precipitation and temperature as indicative variables. Observational dataset are also evaluated against the reliable set of observational dataset, as pointed in literature. Bias, Correlation, and changes (among other statistical measures) are calculated for the entire region and both the variables. Eventually, the region was sub-divided into various smaller domains based on homogenous precipitation zones to evaluate the average changes over time period. Spatial and temporal changes for the region are then finally calculated to evaluate the future changes in the region. Future changes are calculated for 2 Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), the middle emission (RCP4.5) and high emission (RCP8.5) and for both climatic variables, precipitation and temperature. Lastly, Evaluation of Extremes is performed based on precipitation and temperature based indices for whole region in future dataset. Results have indicated that the whole study region is under extreme stress in future climate scenarios for both climatic variables i.e. precipitation and temperature. Precipitation variability is dependent on the location in the area leading to droughts and floods in various regions in future. Temperature is hinting towards a constant increase throughout the region regardless of location.

A Study of Future Change of Extreme Precipitation Event Accompanying Land Slide Disaster at Hiroshima Using Cloud Resolving Model with 500 m Horizontal Grid

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hibino, K.; Takayabu, I.; Wakazuki, Y.; Ogata, T.

2016-12-01

An extreme precipitation event happened at Hiroshima in 2014. Over 250 mm total rainfall was observed at the night of 19th August, which caused a flood and several land slides. The precipitation event is thought to be a rare event happening once in approximately 30 years i.e., 30 years return level. We investigate the mechanism of this event and examine its future change by using a 27-members ensemble experiment with Japan Meteorological Research Institute non­hydrostatic regional climate model (MRI­-NHRCM). Because the heavy rainfall was provided by local convection system (about 100 km), high resolution model of 500 m horizontal grid is used to reproduce the system in the model. Future climate experiments are performed by pseudo­global warming method, in which future changes of sea surface temperature (ΔSST) and vertical profile of temperature (ΔT) are added to the present environmental conditions with relative humidity not being changed. The ΔSST and ΔT are obtained from d4PDF dataset, in which greenhouse gas concentration is fixed so that the surface air temperature averaged globally is 4K warmer than that in the preindustrial time. The ensemble experiment shows that the total amount of rainfall around Hiroshima plain in the future experiments is approximately identical to or slightly decreased from that in the present experiments in spite of the increase of water vapor due to the atmosphere warming. The hypothesis to understand this non-intuitive result is that the future change of temperature profile, of which lower atmosphere is approximately +4K and upper atmosphere near tropopause is approximately +7.5K, increases the convective stability of atmosphere. In order to verify the hypothesis, 5 additional future experiments are performed, in which the future change of temperature profile is constant throughout the troposphere. The experiments yield a large increase of precipitation, and we infer that the increase of water vapor and stabilization effect of the temperature profile change cancel each other with regard to the precipitation output.

Indirect downscaling of global circulation model data based on atmospheric circulation and temperature for projections of future precipitation in hourly resolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beck, F.; Bárdossy, A.

2013-07-01

Many hydraulic applications like the design of urban sewage systems require projections of future precipitation in high temporal resolution. We developed a method to predict the regional distribution of hourly precipitation sums based on daily mean sea level pressure and temperature data from a Global Circulation Model. It is an indirect downscaling method avoiding uncertain precipitation data from the model. It is based on a fuzzy-logic classification of atmospheric circulation patterns (CPs) that is further subdivided by means of the average daily temperature. The observed empirical distributions at 30 rain gauges to each CP-temperature class are assumed as constant and used for projections of the hourly precipitation sums in the future. The method was applied to the CP-temperature sequence derived from the 20th century run and the scenario A1B run of ECHAM5. According to ECHAM5, the summers in southwest Germany will become progressively drier. Nevertheless, the frequency of the highest hourly precipitation sums will increase. According to the predictions, estival water stress and the risk of extreme hourly precipitation will both increase simultaneously during the next decades.

Modeling soil temperature change in Seward Peninsula, Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Debolskiy, M. V.; Nicolsky, D.; Romanovsky, V. E.; Muskett, R. R.; Panda, S. K.

2017-12-01

Increasing demand for assessment of climate change-induced permafrost degradation and its consequences promotes creation of high-resolution modeling products of soil temperature changes. This is especially relevant for areas with highly vulnerable warm discontinuous permafrost in the Western Alaska. In this study, we apply ecotype-based modeling approach to simulate high-resolution permafrost distribution and its temporal dynamics in Seward Peninsula, Alaska. To model soil temperature dynamics, we use a transient soil heat transfer model developed at the Geophysical Institute Permafrost Laboratory (GIPL-2). The model solves one dimensional nonlinear heat equation with phase change. The developed model is forced with combination of historical climate and different future scenarios for 1900-2100 with 2x2 km resolution prepared by Scenarios Network for Alaska and Arctic Planning (2017). Vegetation, snow and soil properties are calibrated by ecotype and up-scaled by using Alaska Existing Vegetation Type map for Western Alaska (Flemming, 2015) with 30x30 m resolution provided by Geographic Information Network of Alaska (UAF). The calibrated ecotypes cover over 75% of the study area. We calibrate the model using a data assimilation technique utilizing available observations of air, surface and sub-surface temperatures and snow cover collected by various agencies and research groups (USGS, Geophysical Institute, USDA). The calibration approach takes into account a natural variability between stations in the same ecotype and finds an optimal set of model parameters (snow and soil properties) within the study area. This approach allows reduction in microscale heterogeneity and aggregated soil temperature data from shallow boreholes which is highly dependent on local conditions. As a result of this study we present a series of preliminary high resolution maps for the Seward Peninsula showing changes in the active layer depth and ground temperatures for the current climate and future climate change scenarios.

Experimental Setup for the Investigation of Superconducting Persistent Current

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-09-01

This documentation is intended to support future investigations of coated conductors in either tape or wire form or for bulk superconductors in an...Introduction Second-generation, high-temperature, coated superconductors , such as yttrium barium copper oxide (Y1Ba2Cu3O7-δ, or REBCO, or RE123), are...source applications.8 In order to push the high-temperature superconductors to a more mature degree, new knowledge and deeper understanding of the

The development of Nb-based advanced intermetallic alloys for structural applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Subramanian, P. R.; Mendiratta, M. G.; Dimiduk, D. M.

1996-01-01

A new generation of refractory material systems with significant increases in temperature capability is required to meet the demands of future aerospace applications. Such materials require a balance of properties such as low-temperature damage tolerance, high-temperature strength, creep resistance, and superior environmental stability for implementation in advanced aerospace systems. Systems incorporating niobium-based beta alloys and intermetallic compounds have the potential for meeting these requirements.

Schottky Barrier Height Tuning via the Dopant Segregation Technique through Low-Temperature Microwave Annealing.

PubMed

Fu, Chaochao; Zhou, Xiangbiao; Wang, Yan; Xu, Peng; Xu, Ming; Wu, Dongping; Luo, Jun; Zhao, Chao; Zhang, Shi-Li

2016-04-27

The Schottky junction source/drain structure has great potential to replace the traditional p/n junction source/drain structure of the future ultra-scaled metal-oxide-semiconductor field effect transistors (MOSFETs), as it can form ultimately shallow junctions. However, the effective Schottky barrier height (SBH) of the Schottky junction needs to be tuned to be lower than 100 meV in order to obtain a high driving current. In this paper, microwave annealing is employed to modify the effective SBH of NiSi on Si via boron or arsenic dopant segregation. The barrier height decreased from 0.4-0.7 eV to 0.2-0.1 eV for both conduction polarities by annealing below 400 °C. Compared with the required temperature in traditional rapid thermal annealing, the temperature demanded in microwave annealing is ~60 °C lower, and the mechanisms of this observation are briefly discussed. Microwave annealing is hence of high interest to future semiconductor processing owing to its unique capability of forming the metal/semiconductor contact at a remarkably lower temperature.

Schottky Barrier Height Tuning via the Dopant Segregation Technique through Low-Temperature Microwave Annealing

PubMed Central

Fu, Chaochao; Zhou, Xiangbiao; Wang, Yan; Xu, Peng; Xu, Ming; Wu, Dongping; Luo, Jun; Zhao, Chao; Zhang, Shi-Li

2016-01-01

The Schottky junction source/drain structure has great potential to replace the traditional p/n junction source/drain structure of the future ultra-scaled metal-oxide-semiconductor field effect transistors (MOSFETs), as it can form ultimately shallow junctions. However, the effective Schottky barrier height (SBH) of the Schottky junction needs to be tuned to be lower than 100 meV in order to obtain a high driving current. In this paper, microwave annealing is employed to modify the effective SBH of NiSi on Si via boron or arsenic dopant segregation. The barrier height decreased from 0.4–0.7 eV to 0.2–0.1 eV for both conduction polarities by annealing below 400 °C. Compared with the required temperature in traditional rapid thermal annealing, the temperature demanded in microwave annealing is ~60 °C lower, and the mechanisms of this observation are briefly discussed. Microwave annealing is hence of high interest to future semiconductor processing owing to its unique capability of forming the metal/semiconductor contact at a remarkably lower temperature. PMID:28773440

Statistical downscaling of CMIP5 outputs for projecting future maximum and minimum temperature over the Haihe River Bain, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, Tiezhu; Shen, Zhenyao; Heng, Lee; Dercon, Gerd

2016-04-01

Future climate change information is important to formulate adaptation and mitigation strategies for climate change. In this study, a statistical downscaling model (SDSM) was established using both NCEP reanalysis data and ground observations (daily maximum and minimum temperature) during the period 1971-2010, and then calibrated model was applied to generate the future maximum and minimum temperature projections using predictors from the two CMIP5 models (MPI-ESM-LR and CNRM-CM5) under two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) during the period 2011-2100 for the Haihe River Basin, China. Compared to the baseline period, future change in annual and seasonal maximum and minimum temperature was computed after bias correction. The spatial distribution and trend change of annual maximum and minimum temperature were also analyzed using ensemble projections. The results shows that: (1)The downscaling model had a good applicability on reproducing daily and monthly mean maximum and minimum temperature over the whole basin. (2) Bias was observed when using historical predictors from CMIP5 models and the performance of CNRM-CM5 was a little worse than that of MPI-ESM-LR. (3) The change in annual mean maximum and minimum temperature under the two scenarios in 2020s, 2050s and 2070s will increase and magnitude of maximum temperature will be higher than minimum temperature. (4) The increase in temperature in the mountains and along the coastline is remarkably high than the other parts of the studies basin. (5) For annual maximum and minimum temperature, the significant upward trend will be obtained under RCP 8.5 scenario and the magnitude will be 0.37 and 0.39 ℃ per decade, respectively; the increase in magnitude under RCP 2.6 scenario will be upward in 2020s and then decrease in 2050s and 2070s, and the magnitude will be 0.01 and 0.01℃ per decade, respectively.

Projected change in characteristics of near surface temperature inversions for southeast Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ji, Fei; Evans, Jason Peter; Di Luca, Alejandro; Jiang, Ningbo; Olson, Roman; Fita, Lluis; Argüeso, Daniel; Chang, Lisa T.-C.; Scorgie, Yvonne; Riley, Matt

2018-05-01

Air pollution has significant impacts on human health. Temperature inversions, especially near surface temperature inversions, can amplify air pollution by preventing convective movements and trapping pollutants close to the ground, thus decreasing air quality and increasing health issues. This effect of temperature inversions implies that trends in their frequency, strength and duration can have important implications for air quality. In this study, we evaluate the ability of three reanalysis-driven high-resolution regional climate model (RCM) simulations to represent near surface inversions at 9 sounding sites in southeast Australia. Then we use outputs of 12 historical and future RCM simulations (each with three time periods: 1990-2009, 2020-2039, and 2060-2079) from the NSW/ACT (New South Wales/Australian Capital Territory) Regional Climate Modelling (NARCliM) project to investigate changes in near surface temperature inversions. The results show that there is a substantial increase in the strength of near surface temperature inversions over southeast Australia which suggests that future inversions may intensify poor air quality events. Near surface inversions and their future changes have clear seasonal and diurnal variations. The largest differences between simulations are associated with the driving GCMs, suggesting that the large-scale circulation plays a dominant role in near surface inversion strengths.

The prospects for life on Mars - A pre-Viking assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sagan, C.; Lederberg, J.

1976-01-01

The paper considers implications of the Mariner 9 findings for the investigation of Martian biology in the next decade, beginning with the Viking mission. Previous claims for observations of Martian biological activity are reviewed and refuted or reinterpreted. The question is raised of whether there are combinations of environmental temperature and water activity on Mars that are suitable for a conceivable Martian biology. Four possible classes of Martian organisms associated with temperature/water ecological niches in the external environment are proposed: organisms requiring high temperatures and high water activity, those inhabiting niches with low temperatures and high water activity, those inhabiting niches of high temperature and low water activity, and those which can survive under conditions of low temperature and low water activity. It is noted that organisms of the last two classes may extract water from minerals or from ice and may be of large dimensions. The possible surface distribution of Martian organisms is discussed along with future search strategies for life on Mars.

Projecting pest population dynamics under global warming: the combined effect of inter- and intra-annual variations.

PubMed

Zidon, Royi; Tsueda, Hirotsugu; Morin, Efrat; Morin, Shai

2016-06-01

The typical short generation length of insects makes their population dynamics highly sensitive not only to mean annual temperatures but also to their intra-annual variations. To consider the combined effect of both thermal factors under global warming, we propose a modeling framework that links general circulation models (GCMs) with a stochastic weather generator and population dynamics models to predict species population responses to inter- and intra-annual temperature changes. This framework was utilized to explore future changes in populations of Bemisia tabaci, an invasive insect pest-species that affects multiple agricultural systems in the Mediterranean region. We considered three locations representing different pest status and climatic conditions: Montpellier (France), Seville (Spain), and Beit-Jamal (Israel). We produced ensembles of local daily temperature realizations representing current and future (mid-21st century) climatic conditions under two emission scenarios for the three locations. Our simulations predicted a significant increase in the average number of annual generations and in population size, and a significant lengthening of the growing season in all three locations. A negative effect was found only in Seville for the summer season, where future temperatures lead to a reduction in population size. High variability in population size was observed between years with similar annual mean temperatures, suggesting a strong effect of intra-annual temperature variation. Critical periods were from late spring to late summer in Montpellier and from late winter to early summer in Seville and Beit-Jamal. Although our analysis suggested that earlier seasonal activity does not necessarily lead to increased populations load unless an additional generation is produced, it is highly likely that the insect will become a significant pest of open-fields at Mediterranean latitudes above 40° during the next 50 years. Our simulations also implied that current predictions based on mean temperature anomalies are relatively conservative and it is better to apply stochastic tools to resolve complex responses to climate change while taking natural variability into account. In summary, we propose a modeling framework capable of determining distinct intra-annual temperature patterns leading to large or small population sizes, for pest risk assessment and management planning of both natural and agricultural ecosystems.

Future equivalent of 2010 Russian heatwave intensified by weakening soil moisture constraints

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rasmijn, L. M.; van der Schrier, G.; Bintanja, R.; Barkmeijer, J.; Sterl, A.; Hazeleger, W.

2018-05-01

The 2010 heatwave in eastern Europe and Russia ranks among the hottest events ever recorded in the region1,2. The excessive summer warmth was related to an anomalously widespread and intense quasi-stationary anticyclonic circulation anomaly over western Russia, reinforced by depletion of spring soil moisture1,3-5. At present, high soil moisture levels and strong surface evaporation generally tend to cap maximum summer temperatures6-8, but these constraints may weaken under future warming9,10. Here, we use a data assimilation technique in which future climate model simulations are nudged to realistically represent the persistence and strength of the 2010 blocked atmospheric flow. In the future, synoptically driven extreme warming under favourable large-scale atmospheric conditions will no longer be suppressed by abundant soil moisture, leading to a disproportional intensification of future heatwaves. This implies that future mid-latitude heatwaves analogous to the 2010 event will become even more extreme than previously thought, with temperature extremes increasing by 8.4 °C over western Russia. Thus, the socioeconomic impacts of future heatwaves will probably be amplified beyond current estimates.

Non-contact Creep Resistance Measurement for Ultra-high temperature Materials

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hyers, Robert W.; Lee, Jonghuyn; Bradshaw, Richard C.; Rogers, Jan; Rathz, Thomas J.; Wall, James J.; Choo, Hahn; Liaw, Peter K.

2005-01-01

Continuing pressures for higher performance and efficiency in propulsion are driving ever more demanding needs for high-temperature materials. Some immediate applications in spaceflight include combustion chambers for advanced chemical rockets and turbomachinery for jet engines and power conversion in nuclear-electric propulsion. In the case of rockets, the combination of high stresses and high temperatures make the characterization of creep properties very important. Creep is even more important in the turbomachinery, where a long service life is an additional constraint. Some very high-temperature materials are being developed, including platinum group metals, carbides, borides, and silicides. But the measurement of creep properties at very high temperatures is itself problematic, because the testing instrument must operate at such high temperatures. Conventional techniques are limited to about 1700 C. A new, containerless technique for measuring creep deformation has been developed. This technique is based on electrostatic levitation (ESL) of a spherical sample, which is heated to the measurement temperature and rotated at a rate such that the centrifugal acceleration causes creep deformation. Creep of samples has been demonstrated at up to 2300 C in the ESL facility at NASA MSFC, while ESL itself has been applied at over 3000 C, and has no theoretical maximum temperature. The preliminary results and future directions of this NASA-funded research collaboration will be presented.

Ultrahigh Temperature Capacitive Pressure Sensor

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Harsh, Kevin

2014-01-01

Robust, miniaturized sensing systems are needed to improve performance, increase efficiency, and track system health status and failure modes of advanced propulsion systems. Because microsensors must operate in extremely harsh environments, there are many technical challenges involved in developing reliable systems. In addition to high temperatures and pressures, sensing systems are exposed to oxidation, corrosion, thermal shock, fatigue, fouling, and abrasive wear. In these harsh conditions, sensors must be able to withstand high flow rates, vibration, jet fuel, and exhaust. In order for existing and future aeropropulsion turbine engines to improve safety and reduce cost and emissions while controlling engine instabilities, more accurate and complete sensor information is necessary. High-temperature (300 to 1,350 C) capacitive pressure sensors are of particular interest due to their high measurement bandwidth and inherent suitability for wireless readout schemes. The objective of this project is to develop a capacitive pressure sensor based on silicon carbon nitride (SiCN), a new class of high-temperature ceramic materials, which possesses excellent mechanical and electric properties at temperatures up to 1,600 C.

The predicted influence of climate change on lesser prairie-chicken reproductive parameters

USGS Publications Warehouse

Grisham, Blake A.; Boal, Clint W.; Haukos, David A.; Davis, D.; Boydston, Kathy K.; Dixon, Charles; Heck, Willard R.

2013-01-01

The Southern High Plains is anticipated to experience significant changes in temperature and precipitation due to climate change. These changes may influence the lesser prairie-chicken (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus) in positive or negative ways. We assessed the potential changes in clutch size, incubation start date, and nest survival for lesser prairie-chickens for the years 2050 and 2080 based on modeled predictions of climate change and reproductive data for lesser prairie-chickens from 2001-2011 on the Southern High Plains of Texas and New Mexico. We developed 9 a priori models to assess the relationship between reproductive parameters and biologically relevant weather conditions. We selected weather variable(s) with the most model support and then obtained future predicted values from climatewizard.org. We conducted 1,000 simulations using each reproductive parameter's linear equation obtained from regression calculations, and the future predicted value for each weather variable to predict future reproductive parameter values for lesser prairie-chickens. There was a high degree of model uncertainty for each reproductive value. Winter temperature had the greatest effect size for all three parameters, suggesting a negative relationship between above-average winter temperature and reproductive output. The above-average winter temperatures are correlated to La Nina events, which negatively affect lesser prairie-chickens through resulting drought conditions. By 2050 and 2080, nest survival was predicted to be below levels considered viable for population persistence; however, our assessment did not consider annual survival of adults, chick survival, or the positive benefit of habitat management and conservation, which may ultimately offset the potentially negative effect of drought on nest survival.

The predicted influence of climate change on lesser prairie-chicken reproductive parameters.

PubMed

Grisham, Blake A; Boal, Clint W; Haukos, David A; Davis, Dawn M; Boydston, Kathy K; Dixon, Charles; Heck, Willard R

2013-01-01

The Southern High Plains is anticipated to experience significant changes in temperature and precipitation due to climate change. These changes may influence the lesser prairie-chicken (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus) in positive or negative ways. We assessed the potential changes in clutch size, incubation start date, and nest survival for lesser prairie-chickens for the years 2050 and 2080 based on modeled predictions of climate change and reproductive data for lesser prairie-chickens from 2001-2011 on the Southern High Plains of Texas and New Mexico. We developed 9 a priori models to assess the relationship between reproductive parameters and biologically relevant weather conditions. We selected weather variable(s) with the most model support and then obtained future predicted values from climatewizard.org. We conducted 1,000 simulations using each reproductive parameter's linear equation obtained from regression calculations, and the future predicted value for each weather variable to predict future reproductive parameter values for lesser prairie-chickens. There was a high degree of model uncertainty for each reproductive value. Winter temperature had the greatest effect size for all three parameters, suggesting a negative relationship between above-average winter temperature and reproductive output. The above-average winter temperatures are correlated to La Niña events, which negatively affect lesser prairie-chickens through resulting drought conditions. By 2050 and 2080, nest survival was predicted to be below levels considered viable for population persistence; however, our assessment did not consider annual survival of adults, chick survival, or the positive benefit of habitat management and conservation, which may ultimately offset the potentially negative effect of drought on nest survival.

High Temperature, High Power Piezoelectric Composite Transducers

PubMed Central

Lee, Hyeong Jae; Zhang, Shujun; Bar-Cohen, Yoseph; Sherrit, StewarT.

2014-01-01

Piezoelectric composites are a class of functional materials consisting of piezoelectric active materials and non-piezoelectric passive polymers, mechanically attached together to form different connectivities. These composites have several advantages compared to conventional piezoelectric ceramics and polymers, including improved electromechanical properties, mechanical flexibility and the ability to tailor properties by using several different connectivity patterns. These advantages have led to the improvement of overall transducer performance, such as transducer sensitivity and bandwidth, resulting in rapid implementation of piezoelectric composites in medical imaging ultrasounds and other acoustic transducers. Recently, new piezoelectric composite transducers have been developed with optimized composite components that have improved thermal stability and mechanical quality factors, making them promising candidates for high temperature, high power transducer applications, such as therapeutic ultrasound, high power ultrasonic wirebonding, high temperature non-destructive testing, and downhole energy harvesting. This paper will present recent developments of piezoelectric composite technology for high temperature and high power applications. The concerns and limitations of using piezoelectric composites will also be discussed, and the expected future research directions will be outlined. PMID:25111242

Thermal Hotspots in CPU Die and It's Future Architecture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Jian; Hu, Fu-Yuan

Owing to the increasing core frequency and chip integration and the limited die dimension, the power densities in CPU chip have been increasing fastly. The high temperature on chip resulted by power densities threats the processor's performance and chip's reliability. This paper analyzed the thermal hotspots in die and their properties. A new architecture of function units in die - - hot units distributed architecture is suggested to cope with the problems of high power densities for future processor chip.

High Temperature Mechanisms for Venus Exploration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ji, Jerri; Narine, Roop; Kumar, Nishant; Singh, Sase; Gorevan, Steven

Future Venus missions, including New Frontiers Venus In-Situ Explorer and three Flagship Missions - Venus Geophysical Network, Venus Mobile Explorer and Venus Surface Sample Return all focus on searching for evidence of past climate change both on the surface and in the atmospheric composition as well as in the interior dynamics of the planet. In order to achieve these goals and objectives, many key technologies need to be developed for the Venus extreme environment. These key technologies include sample acquisition systems and other high-temperature mechanisms and mobility systems capable of extended operation when directly exposed to the Venus surface or lower atmosphere environment. Honeybee Robotics has developed two types of high temperature motors, the materials and components in both motors were selected based on the requirement to survive temperatures above a minimum of 460° C, at earth atmosphere. The prototype Switched Reluctance Motor (SRM) has been operated non-continuously for over 20 hours at Venus-like conditions (460° C temperature, mostly CO2 gas environment) and it remains functional. A drilling system, actuated by two SRMs was tested in Venus-like conditions, 460° C temperature and mostly CO2 gas environment, for more than 15 hours. The drill successfully completed three tests by drilling into chalk up to 6 inches deep in each test. A first generation Brushless DC (BLDC) Motor and high temperature resolver were also tested and the feasibility of the designs was demonstrated by the extended operation of both devices under Venus-like condition. Further development of the BLDC motor and resolver continues and these devices will, ultimately, be integrated into the development of a high temperature sample acquisition scoop and high temperature joint (awarded SBIR Phase II in October, 2007). Both the SR and BLDC motors will undergo extensive testing at Venus temperature and pressure (TRL6) and are expected to be mission ready before the next New Frontiers AO release. Scalable high temperature motor, resolver and bearing developments allow for creation of long lasting sample acquisition systems, booms, robot arms and even mobility systems that operate outside of an environment-controlled landed platform on the surface of Venus. The SR and BLDC motors are no longer expected to limit the life of Venus surface operations. With the accompanying high temperature bearing and other mechanisms development, surface operations will be limited only by available power. Therefore, the motor and resolver's capability to survive for hours (and potentially longer) in the environment is a major benefit to future Venus science missions and they also allow time for communication ground loops to optimize sample target selection and the possibility for acquiring multiple samples from the surface. The extreme temperature motors, resolver and other high temperature mechanisms therefore revolutionize the exploration of Venus.

Ecosystem response to climatic variables - air temperature and precipitation: How can these variables alter plant productions in C4-grass dominant ecosystem?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jung, C. G.; Jiang, L.; Luo, Y.

2017-12-01

Understanding net primary production (NPP) response to the key climatic variables, temperature and precipitation, is essential since the response could be represented by one of future consequences from ecosystem responses. Under future climatic warming, fluctuating precipitation is expected. In addition, NPP solely could not explain whole ecosystem response; therefore, not only NPP, but also above- and below-ground NPP (ANPP and BNPP, respectively) need to be examined. This examination needs to include how the plant productions response along temperature and precipitation gradients. Several studies have examined the response of NPP against each of single climatic variable, but understanding the response of ANPP and BNPP to the multiple variables is notably poor. In this study, we used the plant productions data (NPP, ANPP, and BNPP) with climatic variables, i.e., air temperature and precipitation, from 1999 to 2015 under warming and clipping treatments (mimicking hay-harvesting) in C4-grass dominant ecosystem located in central Oklahoma, United States. Firstly, we examined the nonlinear relationships with the climatic variables for NPP, ANPP and BNPP; and then predicted possible responses in the temperature - precipitation space by using a linear mixed effect model. Nonlinearities of NPP, ANPP and BNPP to the climatic variables have been found to show unimodal curves, and nonlinear models have better goodness of fit as shown lower Akaike information criterion (AIC) than linear models. Optimum condition for NPP is represented at high temperature and precipitation level whereas BNPP is maximized at moderate precipitation levels while ANPP has same range of NPP's optimum condition. Clipping significantly reduced ANPP while there was no clipping effect on NPP and BNPP. Furthermore, inclining NPP and ANPP have shown in a range from moderate to high precipitation level with increasing temperature while inclining pattern for BNPP was observed in moderate precipitation level. Overall, the C4-grass dominant ecosystem has a potential for considerable increases in NPP in hotter and wetter conditions as shown a range from moderate to high temperature and precipitation levels; ANPP has peaked at the high temperature and precipitation level, but maximum BNPP needs moderate precipitation level and high temperature.

Anther response to high-temperature stress during development and pollen thermotolerance heterosis as revealed by pollen tube growth and in vitro pollen vigor analysis in upland cotton.

PubMed

Song, Guicheng; Wang, Miaomiao; Zeng, Bin; Zhang, Jing; Jiang, Chenliang; Hu, Qirui; Geng, Guangtao; Tang, Canming

2015-05-01

Pollen tube growth in styles was strongly inhibited by temperature above 35 °C, and the yield of cotton decreased because of the adverse effect of high temperatures during square development. High-temperature stress during flowering influences the square development of upland cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.) and cotton yield. Although it is well known that square development is sensitive to high temperature, high-temperature sensitive stages of square development and the effects of high temperature on pollen tube growth in the styles are unknown. The effect of high temperature on anther development corresponding to pollen vigor is unknown during anther development. The objectives of this study were to identify the stages of square development that are sensitive to high temperatures (37/30 and 40/34 °C), to determine whether the abnormal development of squares influenced by high temperature is responsible for the variation in the in vitro germination percent of pollen grains at anthesis, to identify the effect of high temperature on pollen germination in the styles, and to determine pollen thermotolerance heterosis. Our results show that the stages from the sporogenous cell to tetrad stage (square length <6.0 mm) were the most sensitive to high temperature, and the corresponding pollen viability at anthesis was consistent with the changes in the square development stage. Pollen tube growth in the styles was strongly inhibited by temperature above 35 °C, and the yield of cotton decreased because of the effect of high temperature during square development. The thermotolerance of hybrid F1 pollen showed heterosis, and pollen viability could be used as a criterion for screening for high-temperature tolerance cultivars. These results can be used in breeding to develop new cotton cultivars that can withstand high-temperature conditions, particularly in a future warmer climate.

Climate change and temperature extremes: A review of heat- and cold-related morbidity and mortality concerns of municipalities.

PubMed

Gronlund, Carina J; Sullivan, Kyle P; Kefelegn, Yonathan; Cameron, Lorraine; O'Neill, Marie S

2018-08-01

Cold and hot weather are associated with mortality and morbidity. Although the burden of temperature-associated mortality may shift towards high temperatures in the future, cold temperatures may represent a greater current-day problem in temperate cities. Hot and cold temperature vulnerabilities may coincide across several personal and neighborhood characteristics, suggesting opportunities for increasing present and future resilience to extreme temperatures. We present a narrative literature review encompassing the epidemiology of cold- and heat-related mortality and morbidity, related physiologic and environmental mechanisms, and municipal responses to hot and cold weather, illustrated by Detroit, Michigan, USA, a financially burdened city in an economically diverse metropolitan area. The Detroit area experiences sharp increases in mortality and hospitalizations with extreme heat, while cold temperatures are associated with more gradual increases in mortality, with no clear threshold. Interventions such as heating and cooling centers may reduce but not eliminate temperature-associated health problems. Furthermore, direct hemodynamic responses to cold, sudden exertion, poor indoor air quality and respiratory epidemics likely contribute to cold-related mortality. Short- and long-term interventions to enhance energy and housing security and housing quality may reduce temperature-related health problems. Extreme temperatures can increase morbidity and mortality in municipalities like Detroit that experience both extreme heat and prolonged cold seasons amidst large socioeconomic disparities. The similarities in physiologic and built-environment vulnerabilities to both hot and cold weather suggest prioritization of strategies that address both present-day cold and near-future heat concerns. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Understanding and quantifying foliar temperature acclimation for Earth System Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, N. G.; Dukes, J.

2015-12-01

Photosynthesis and respiration on land are the two largest carbon fluxes between the atmosphere and Earth's surface. The parameterization of these processes represent major uncertainties in the terrestrial component of the Earth System Models used to project future climate change. Research has shown that much of this uncertainty is due to the parameterization of the temperature responses of leaf photosynthesis and autotrophic respiration, which are typically based on short-term empirical responses. Here, we show that including longer-term responses to temperature, such as temperature acclimation, can help to reduce this uncertainty and improve model performance, leading to drastic changes in future land-atmosphere carbon feedbacks across multiple models. However, these acclimation formulations have many flaws, including an underrepresentation of many important global flora. In addition, these parameterizations were done using multiple studies that employed differing methodology. As such, we used a consistent methodology to quantify the short- and long-term temperature responses of maximum Rubisco carboxylation (Vcmax), maximum rate of Ribulos-1,5-bisphosphate regeneration (Jmax), and dark respiration (Rd) in multiple species representing each of the plant functional types used in global-scale land surface models. Short-term temperature responses of each process were measured in individuals acclimated for 7 days at one of 5 temperatures (15-35°C). The comparison of short-term curves in plants acclimated to different temperatures were used to evaluate long-term responses. Our analyses indicated that the instantaneous response of each parameter was highly sensitive to the temperature at which they were acclimated. However, we found that this sensitivity was larger in species whose leaves typically experience a greater range of temperatures over the course of their lifespan. These data indicate that models using previous acclimation formulations are likely incorrectly simulating leaf carbon exchange responses to future warming. Therefore, our data, if used to parameterize large-scale models, are likely to provide an even greater improvement in model performance, resulting in more reliable projections of future carbon-clime feedbacks.

Application of hydrometallurgy techniques in quartz processing and purification: a review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Min; Lei, Shaomin; Pei, Zhenyu; Liu, Yuanyuan; Xia, Zhangjie; Xie, Feixiang

2018-04-01

Although there have been numerous studies on separation and purification of metallic minerals by hydrometallurgy techniques, applications of the chemical techniques in separation and purification of non-metallic minerals are rarely reported. This paper reviews disparate areas of study into processing and purification of quartz (typical non-metallic ore) in an attempt to summarize current work, as well as to suggest potential for future consolidation in the field. The review encompasses chemical techniques of the quartz processing including situations, progresses, leaching mechanism, scopes of application, advantages and drawbacks of micro-bioleaching, high temperature leaching, high temperature pressure leaching and catalyzed high temperature pressure leaching. Traditional leaching techniques including micro-bioleaching and high temperature leaching are unequal to demand of modern glass industry for quality of quartz concentrate because the quartz products has to be further processed. High temperature pressure leaching and catalyzed high temperature pressure leaching provide new ways to produce high-grade quartz sand with only one process and lower acid consumption. Furthermore, the catalyzed high temperature pressure leaching realizes effective purification of quartz with extremely low acid consumption (no using HF or any fluoride). It is proposed that, by integrating the different chemical processes of quartz processing and expounding leaching mechanisms and scopes of application, the research field as a monopolized industry would benefit.

Identifying Changes in the Probability of High Temperature, High Humidity Heat Wave Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ballard, T.; Diffenbaugh, N. S.

2016-12-01

Understanding how heat waves will respond to climate change is critical for adequate planning and adaptation. While temperature is the primary determinant of heat wave severity, humidity has been shown to play a key role in heat wave intensity with direct links to human health and safety. Here we investigate the individual contributions of temperature and specific humidity to extreme heat wave conditions in recent decades. Using global NCEP-DOE Reanalysis II daily data, we identify regional variability in the joint probability distribution of humidity and temperature. We also identify a statistically significant positive trend in humidity over the eastern U.S. during heat wave events, leading to an increased probability of high humidity, high temperature events. The extent to which we can expect this trend to continue under climate change is complicated due to variability between CMIP5 models, in particular among projections of humidity. However, our results support the notion that heat wave dynamics are characterized by more than high temperatures alone, and understanding and quantifying the various components of the heat wave system is crucial for forecasting future impacts.

Future of IT, PT and superconductivity technology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tanaka, Shoji

2003-10-01

Recently the Information Technology is developing very rapidly and the total traffic on the Internet is increasing dramatically. The numerous equipments connected to the Internet must be operated at very high-speed and the electricity consumed in the Internet is also increasing. Superconductivity devices of very high-speed and very low power consumption must be introduced. These superconducting devices will play very important roles in the future information society. Coated conductors will be used to generate extremely high magnetic fields of beyond 20 T at low temperatures. At the liquid nitrogen temperature they can find many applications in a wide range of Power Technology and other industries, since we have already large critical current and brilliant magnetic field dependences in some prototypes of coated conductors. It is becoming certain that the market for the superconductivity technology will be opened between the years of 2005 and 2010.

The Next Generation of Space Cells for Diverse Environments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bailey, Sheila; Landis, Geoffrey; Raffaelle, Ryne

2002-01-01

Future science, military and commercial space missions are incredibly diverse. Military and commercial missions range from large arrays of hundreds of kilowatt to small arrays of ten watts in various Earth orbits. While science missions also have small to very large power needs there are additional unique requirements to provide power for near-sun missions and planetary exploration including orbiters, landers and rovers both to the inner planets and the outer planets with a major emphasis in the near term on Mars. These mission requirements demand cells for low intensity, low temperature applications, high intensity, high temperature applications, dusty environments and often high radiation environments. This paper discusses mission requirements, the current state of the art of space solar cells, and a variety of both evolving thin-film cells as well as new technologies that may impact the future choice of space solar cells for a specific mission application.

Elevated temperature drives kelp microbiome dysbiosis, while elevated carbon dioxide induces water microbiome disruption

PubMed Central

Morris, Megan M.; Brown, Matt; Doane, Michael; Edwards, Matthew S.; Michael, Todd P.; Dinsdale, Elizabeth A.

2018-01-01

Global climate change includes rising temperatures and increased pCO2 concentrations in the ocean, with potential deleterious impacts on marine organisms. In this case study we conducted a four-week climate change incubation experiment, and tested the independent and combined effects of increased temperature and partial pressure of carbon dioxide (pCO2), on the microbiomes of a foundation species, the giant kelp Macrocystis pyrifera, and the surrounding water column. The water and kelp microbiome responded differently to each of the climate stressors. In the water microbiome, each condition caused an increase in a distinct microbial order, whereas the kelp microbiome exhibited a reduction in the dominant kelp-associated order, Alteromondales. The water column microbiomes were most disrupted by elevated pCO2, with a 7.3 fold increase in Rhizobiales. The kelp microbiome was most influenced by elevated temperature and elevated temperature in combination with elevated pCO2. Kelp growth was negatively associated with elevated temperature, and the kelp microbiome showed a 5.3 fold increase Flavobacteriales and a 2.2 fold increase alginate degrading enzymes and sulfated polysaccharides. In contrast, kelp growth was positively associated with the combination of high temperature and high pCO2 ‘future conditions’, with a 12.5 fold increase in Planctomycetales and 4.8 fold increase in Rhodobacteriales. Therefore, the water and kelp microbiomes acted as distinct communities, where the kelp was stabilizing the microbiome under changing pCO2 conditions, but lost control at high temperature. Under future conditions, a new equilibrium between the kelp and the microbiome was potentially reached, where the kelp grew rapidly and the commensal microbes responded to an increase in mucus production. PMID:29474389

Alumina Based 500 C Electronic Packaging Systems and Future Development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chen, Liang-Yu

2012-01-01

NASA space and aeronautical missions for probing the inner solar planets as well as for in situ monitoring and control of next-generation aeronautical engines require high-temperature environment operable sensors and electronics. A 96% aluminum oxide and Au thick-film metallization based packaging system including chip-level packages, printed circuit board, and edge-connector is in development for high temperature SiC electronics. An electronic packaging system based on this material system was successfully tested and demonstrated with SiC electronics at 500 C for over 10,000 hours in laboratory conditions previously. In addition to the tests in laboratory environments, this packaging system has more recently been tested with a SiC junction field effect transistor (JFET) on low earth orbit through the NASA Materials on the International Space Station Experiment 7 (MISSE7). A SiC JFET with a packaging system composed of a 96% alumina chip-level package and an alumina printed circuit board mounted on a data acquisition circuit board was launched as a part of the MISSE7 suite to International Space Station via a Shuttle mission and tested on the orbit for eighteen months. A summary of results of tests in both laboratory and space environments will be presented. The future development of alumina based high temperature packaging using co-fired material systems for improved performance at high temperature and more feasible mass production will also be discussed.

Challenges associated with projecting urbanization-induced heat-related mortality.

PubMed

Hondula, David M; Georgescu, Matei; Balling, Robert C

2014-08-15

Maricopa County, Arizona, anchor to the fastest growing megapolitan area in the United States, is located in a hot desert climate where extreme temperatures are associated with elevated risk of mortality. Continued urbanization in the region will impact atmospheric temperatures and, as a result, potentially affect human health. We aimed to quantify the number of excess deaths attributable to heat in Maricopa County based on three future urbanization and adaptation scenarios and multiple exposure variables. Two scenarios (low and high growth projections) represent the maximum possible uncertainty range associated with urbanization in central Arizona, and a third represents the adaptation of high-albedo cool roof technology. Using a Poisson regression model, we related temperature to mortality using data spanning 1983-2007. Regional climate model simulations based on 2050-projected urbanization scenarios for Maricopa County generated distributions of temperature change, and from these predicted changes future excess heat-related mortality was estimated. Subject to urbanization scenario and exposure variable utilized, projections of heat-related mortality ranged from a decrease of 46 deaths per year (-95%) to an increase of 339 deaths per year (+359%). Projections based on minimum temperature showed the greatest increase for all expansion and adaptation scenarios and were substantially higher than those for daily mean temperature. Projections based on maximum temperature were largely associated with declining mortality. Low-growth and adaptation scenarios led to the smallest increase in predicted heat-related mortality based on mean temperature projections. Use of only one exposure variable to project future heat-related deaths may therefore be misrepresentative in terms of direction of change and magnitude of effects. Because urbanization-induced impacts can vary across the diurnal cycle, projections of heat-related health outcomes that do not consider place-based, time-varying urban heat island effects are neglecting essential elements for policy relevant decision-making. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Spatial analysis of future East Asian seasonal temperature using two regional climate model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Yura; Jun, Mikyoung; Min, Seung-Ki; Suh, Myoung-Seok; Kang, Hyun-Suk

2016-05-01

CORDEX-East Asia, a branch of the coordinated regional climate downscaling experiment (CORDEX) initiative, provides high-resolution climate simulations for the domain covering East Asia. This study analyzes temperature data from regional climate models (RCMs) participating in the CORDEX - East Asia region, accounting for the spatial dependence structure of the data. In particular, we assess similarities and dissimilarities of the outputs from two RCMs, HadGEM3-RA and RegCM4, over the region and over time. A Bayesian functional analysis of variance (ANOVA) approach is used to simultaneously model the temperature patterns from the two RCMs for the current and future climate. We exploit nonstationary spatial models to handle the spatial dependence structure of the temperature variable, which depends heavily on latitude and altitude. For a seasonal comparison, we examine changes in the winter temperature in addition to the summer temperature data. We find that the temperature increase projected by RegCM4 tends to be smaller than the projection of HadGEM3-RA for summers, and that the future warming projected by HadGEM3-RA tends to be weaker for winters. Also, the results show that there will be a warming of 1-3°C over the region in 45 years. More specifically, the warming pattern clearly depends on the latitude, with greater temperature increases in higher latitude areas, which implies that warming may be more severe in the northern part of the domain.

The twenty-first century Colorado River hot drought and implications for the future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Udall, Bradley; Overpeck, Jonathan

2017-03-01

Between 2000 and 2014, annual Colorado River flows averaged 19% below the 1906-1999 average, the worst 15-year drought on record. At least one-sixth to one-half (average at one-third) of this loss is due to unprecedented temperatures (0.9°C above the 1906-1999 average), confirming model-based analysis that continued warming will likely further reduce flows. Whereas it is virtually certain that warming will continue with additional emissions of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere, there has been no observed trend toward greater precipitation in the Colorado Basin, nor are climate models in agreement that there should be a trend. Moreover, there is a significant risk of decadal and multidecadal drought in the coming century, indicating that any increase in mean precipitation will likely be offset during periods of prolonged drought. Recently published estimates of Colorado River flow sensitivity to temperature combined with a large number of recent climate model-based temperature projections indicate that continued business-as-usual warming will drive temperature-induced declines in river flow, conservatively -20% by midcentury and -35% by end-century, with support for losses exceeding -30% at midcentury and -55% at end-century. Precipitation increases may moderate these declines somewhat, but to date no such increases are evident and there is no model agreement on future precipitation changes. These results, combined with the increasing likelihood of prolonged drought in the river basin, suggest that future climate change impacts on the Colorado River flows will be much more serious than currently assumed, especially if substantial reductions in greenhouse gas emissions do not occur.