Constraining the Antarctic contribution to interglacial sea-level rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Naish, T.; Mckay, R. M.; Barrett, P. J.; Levy, R. H.; Golledge, N. R.; Deconto, R. M.; Horgan, H. J.; Dunbar, G. B.

2015-12-01

Observations, models and paleoclimate reconstructions suggest that Antarctica's marine-based ice sheets behave in an unstable manner with episodes of rapid retreat in response to warming climate. Understanding the processes involved in this "marine ice sheet instability" is key for improving estimates of Antarctic ice sheet contribution to future sea-level rise. Another motivating factor is that far-field sea-level reconstructions and ice sheet models imply global mean sea level (GMSL) was up to 20m and 10m higher, respectively, compared with present day, during the interglacials of the warm Pliocene (~4-3Ma) and Late Pleistocene (at ~400ka and 125ka). This was when atmospheric CO2 was between 280 and 400ppm and global average surface temperatures were 1- 3°C warmer, suggesting polar ice sheets are highly sensitive to relatively modest increases in climate forcing. Such magnitudes of GMSL rise not only require near complete melt of the Greenland Ice Sheet and the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, but a substantial retreat of marine-based sectors of East Antarctic Ice Sheet. Recent geological drilling initiatives on the continental margin of Antarctica from both ship- (e.g. IODP; International Ocean Discovery Program) and ice-based (e.g. ANDRILL/Antarctic Geological Drilling) platforms have provided evidence supporting retreat of marine-based ice. However, without direct access through the ice sheet to archives preserved within sub-glacial sedimentary basins, the volume and extent of ice sheet retreat during past interglacials cannot be directly constrained. Sediment cores have been successfully recovered from beneath ice shelves by the ANDRILL Program and ice streams by the WISSARD (Whillans Ice Stream Sub-glacial Access Research Drilling) Project. Together with the potential of the new RAID (Rapid Access Ice Drill) initiative, these demonstrate the technological feasibility of accessing the subglacial bed and deeper sedimentary archives. In this talk I will outline the scientific challenges, some potential sub-glacial sedimentary targets, and a strategy for future drilling of sub-glacial sedimentary basins.

Ice-sheet contributions to future sea-level change.

PubMed

Gregory, J M; Huybrechts, P

2006-07-15

Accurate simulation of ice-sheet surface mass balance requires higher spatial resolution than is afforded by typical atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs), owing, in particular, to the need to resolve the narrow and steep margins where the majority of precipitation and ablation occurs. We have developed a method for calculating mass-balance changes by combining ice-sheet average time-series from AOGCM projections for future centuries, both with information from high-resolution climate models run for short periods and with a 20km ice-sheet mass-balance model. Antarctica contributes negatively to sea level on account of increased accumulation, while Greenland contributes positively because ablation increases more rapidly. The uncertainty in the results is about 20% for Antarctica and 35% for Greenland. Changes in ice-sheet topography and dynamics are not included, but we discuss their possible effects. For an annual- and area-average warming exceeding 4.5+/-0.9K in Greenland and 3.1+/-0.8K in the global average, the net surface mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet becomes negative, in which case it is likely that the ice sheet would eventually be eliminated, raising global-average sea level by 7m.

Challenges faced by ice sheet projections: lessons from the SeaRISE effort

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nowicki, S.

2013-12-01

Projecting the future evolution of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets is a problem of enormous societal importance, as ice sheet influence our future sea levels. This crucial issue is however a non trivial task, as demonstrated by the Sea level Response to Ice Sheet Evolution (SeaRISE) effort: prescribing simple external forcings to a group of ice sheet models results in a spread in responses. Understanding the source of the diversity in the model results is therefore crucial in order to reduce the uncertainty in the projection. Just as in any future climate simulation, the analysis presented here demonstrates that the model spread in the SeaRISE effort is due to a number of factors. First is the problem of obtaining an initial configuration for the projection. The two commonly used methods, interglacial spin-up or data assimilation, have both advantages and drawbacks, and will affect the determination of fields that cannot be measured (such as basal slipperiness). Second is the uncertainty in actual observations, which includes but is not limited to surface mass balance, basal topography, ice thickness, and surface velocities. An additional issue with these observations is that they can be transient quantities which are not measured at the same time, but ice sheet models require them to be simultaneous. Third is the uncertainty in the models' physics and discretization, which is limited by our understanding (or lack of understanding) of crucial processes that often occur at subgrid scale relative to the resolution used by continental ice sheet models, and thus require parameterization. Grounding line migration and sliding laws are such an example. Fourth is the determination of the future forcing scenarios and their implementation as the external forcing. Unfortunately, as demonstrated in this analysis, all ice sheet models face these limitations to some degree, so that it is extremely difficult to identify a set of models and projections that should be trusted in preference to others. One model might be more suitable for assessing the impact of a warmer atmosphere because of its initialization procedure, but its deficiencies in capturing grounding line migration, for example, might make its projections for oceanic forcing unreliable. More work is thus required to evaluate individual ice sheet models' skills in projection, but this crucial and challenging task is left for future studies.

Using palaeoclimate data to improve models of the Antarctic Ice Sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Phipps, Steven; King, Matt; Roberts, Jason; White, Duanne

2017-04-01

Ice sheet models are the most descriptive tools available to simulate the future evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS), including its contribution towards changes in global sea level. However, our knowledge of the dynamics of the coupled ice-ocean-lithosphere system is inevitably limited, in part due to a lack of observations. Furthemore, to build computationally efficient models that can be run for multiple millennia, it is necessary to use simplified descriptions of ice dynamics. Ice sheet modelling is therefore an inherently uncertain exercise. The past evolution of the AIS provides an opportunity to constrain the description of physical processes within ice sheet models and, therefore, to constrain our understanding of the role of the AIS in driving changes in global sea level. We use the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM) to demonstrate how palaeoclimate data can improve our ability to predict the future evolution of the AIS. A 50-member perturbed-physics ensemble is generated, spanning uncertainty in the parameterisations of three key physical processes within the model: (i) the stress balance within the ice sheet, (ii) basal sliding and (iii) calving of ice shelves. A Latin hypercube approach is used to optimally sample the range of uncertainty in parameter values. This perturbed-physics ensemble is used to simulate the evolution of the AIS from the Last Glacial Maximum ( 21,000 years ago) to present. Palaeoclimate records are then used to determine which ensemble members are the most realistic. This allows us to use data on past climates to directly constrain our understanding of the past contribution of the AIS towards changes in global sea level. Critically, it also allows us to determine which ensemble members are likely to generate the most realistic projections of the future evolution of the AIS.

Airborne Tomographic Swath Ice Sounding Processing System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wu, Xiaoqing; Rodriquez, Ernesto; Freeman, Anthony; Jezek, Ken

2013-01-01

Glaciers and ice sheets modulate global sea level by storing water deposited as snow on the surface, and discharging water back into the ocean through melting. Their physical state can be characterized in terms of their mass balance and dynamics. To estimate the current ice mass balance, and to predict future changes in the motion of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, it is necessary to know the ice sheet thickness and the physical conditions of the ice sheet surface and bed. This information is required at fine resolution and over extensive portions of the ice sheets. A tomographic algorithm has been developed to take raw data collected by a multiple-channel synthetic aperture sounding radar system over a polar ice sheet and convert those data into two-dimensional (2D) ice thickness measurements. Prior to this work, conventional processing techniques only provided one-dimensional ice thickness measurements along profiles.

Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project (ISMIP6) Contribution to CMIP6

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nowicki, Sophie M. J.; Payne, Tony; Larour, Eric; Seroussi, Helene; Goelzer, Heiko; Lipscomb, William; Gregory, Jonathan; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Shepherd, Andrew

2016-01-01

Reducing the uncertainty in the past, present, and future contribution of ice sheets to sea-level change requires a coordinated effort between the climate and glaciology communities. The Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6) is the primary activity within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) focusing on the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. In this paper, we describe the framework for ISMIP6 and its relationship with other activities within CMIP6. The ISMIP6 experimental design relies on CMIP6 climate models and includes, for the first time within CMIP, coupled ice-sheetclimate models as well as standalone ice-sheet models. To facilitate analysis of the multi-model ensemble and to generate a set of standard climate inputs for standalone ice-sheet models, ISMIP6 defines a protocol for all variables related to ice sheets. ISMIP6 will provide a basis for investigating the feedbacks, impacts, and sea-level changes associated with dynamic ice sheets and for quantifying the uncertainty in ice-sheet-sourced global sea-level change.

The Antarctic Ice.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Radok, Uwe

1985-01-01

The International Antarctic Glaciological Project has collected information on the East Antarctic ice sheet since 1969. Analysis of ice cores revealed climatic history, and radar soundings helped map bedrock of the continent. Computer models of the ice sheet and its changes over time will aid in predicting the future. (DH)

Uncertainty quantification of Antarctic contribution to sea-level rise using the fast Elementary Thermomechanical Ice Sheet (f.ETISh) model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bulthuis, Kevin; Arnst, Maarten; Pattyn, Frank; Favier, Lionel

2017-04-01

Uncertainties in sea-level rise projections are mostly due to uncertainties in Antarctic ice-sheet predictions (IPCC AR5 report, 2013), because key parameters related to the current state of the Antarctic ice sheet (e.g. sub-ice-shelf melting) and future climate forcing are poorly constrained. Here, we propose to improve the predictions of Antarctic ice-sheet behaviour using new uncertainty quantification methods. As opposed to ensemble modelling (Bindschadler et al., 2013) which provides a rather limited view on input and output dispersion, new stochastic methods (Le Maître and Knio, 2010) can provide deeper insight into the impact of uncertainties on complex system behaviour. Such stochastic methods usually begin with deducing a probabilistic description of input parameter uncertainties from the available data. Then, the impact of these input parameter uncertainties on output quantities is assessed by estimating the probability distribution of the outputs by means of uncertainty propagation methods such as Monte Carlo methods or stochastic expansion methods. The use of such uncertainty propagation methods in glaciology may be computationally costly because of the high computational complexity of ice-sheet models. This challenge emphasises the importance of developing reliable and computationally efficient ice-sheet models such as the f.ETISh ice-sheet model (Pattyn, 2015), a new fast thermomechanical coupled ice sheet/ice shelf model capable of handling complex and critical processes such as the marine ice-sheet instability mechanism. Here, we apply these methods to investigate the role of uncertainties in sub-ice-shelf melting, calving rates and climate projections in assessing Antarctic contribution to sea-level rise for the next centuries using the f.ETISh model. We detail the methods and show results that provide nominal values and uncertainty bounds for future sea-level rise as a reflection of the impact of the input parameter uncertainties under consideration, as well as a ranking of the input parameter uncertainties in the order of the significance of their contribution to uncertainty in future sea-level rise. In addition, we discuss how limitations posed by the available information (poorly constrained data) pose challenges that motivate our current research.

Bayesian prediction of future ice sheet volume using local approximation Markov chain Monte Carlo methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davis, A. D.; Heimbach, P.; Marzouk, Y.

2017-12-01

We develop a Bayesian inverse modeling framework for predicting future ice sheet volume with associated formal uncertainty estimates. Marine ice sheets are drained by fast-flowing ice streams, which we simulate using a flowline model. Flowline models depend on geometric parameters (e.g., basal topography), parameterized physical processes (e.g., calving laws and basal sliding), and climate parameters (e.g., surface mass balance), most of which are unknown or uncertain. Given observations of ice surface velocity and thickness, we define a Bayesian posterior distribution over static parameters, such as basal topography. We also define a parameterized distribution over variable parameters, such as future surface mass balance, which we assume are not informed by the data. Hyperparameters are used to represent climate change scenarios, and sampling their distributions mimics internal variation. For example, a warming climate corresponds to increasing mean surface mass balance but an individual sample may have periods of increasing or decreasing surface mass balance. We characterize the predictive distribution of ice volume by evaluating the flowline model given samples from the posterior distribution and the distribution over variable parameters. Finally, we determine the effect of climate change on future ice sheet volume by investigating how changing the hyperparameters affects the predictive distribution. We use state-of-the-art Bayesian computation to address computational feasibility. Characterizing the posterior distribution (using Markov chain Monte Carlo), sampling the full range of variable parameters and evaluating the predictive model is prohibitively expensive. Furthermore, the required resolution of the inferred basal topography may be very high, which is often challenging for sampling methods. Instead, we leverage regularity in the predictive distribution to build a computationally cheaper surrogate over the low dimensional quantity of interest (future ice sheet volume). Continual surrogate refinement guarantees asymptotic sampling from the predictive distribution. Directly characterizing the predictive distribution in this way allows us to assess the ice sheet's sensitivity to climate variability and change.

Current state and future perspectives on coupled ice-sheet - sea-level modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Boer, Bas; Stocchi, Paolo; Whitehouse, Pippa L.; van de Wal, Roderik S. W.

2017-08-01

The interaction between ice-sheet growth and retreat and sea-level change has been an established field of research for many years. However, recent advances in numerical modelling have shed new light on the precise interaction of marine ice sheets with the change in near-field sea level, and the related stability of the grounding line position. Studies using fully coupled ice-sheet - sea-level models have shown that accounting for gravitationally self-consistent sea-level change will act to slow down the retreat and advance of marine ice-sheet grounding lines. Moreover, by simultaneously solving the 'sea-level equation' and modelling ice-sheet flow, coupled models provide a global field of relative sea-level change that is consistent with dynamic changes in ice-sheet extent. In this paper we present an overview of recent advances, possible caveats, methodologies and challenges involved in coupled ice-sheet - sea-level modelling. We conclude by presenting a first-order comparison between a suite of relative sea-level data and output from a coupled ice-sheet - sea-level model.

On the Reconstruction of Palaeo-Ice Sheets: Recent Advances and Future Challenges

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stokes, Chris R.; Tarasov, Lev; Blomdin, Robin; Cronin, Thomas M.; Fisher, Timothy G.; Gyllencreutz, Richard; Hattestrand, Clas; Heyman, Jacob; Hindmarsh, Richard C. A.; Hughes, Anna L. C.;

On the reconstruction of palaeo-ice sheets: Recent advances and future challenges

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stokes, Chris R.; Tarasov, Lev; Blomdin, Robin; Cronin, Thomas M.; Fisher, Timothy G.; Gyllencreutz, Richard; Hattestrand, Clas; Heyman, Jakob; Hindmarsh, Richard C. A.; Hughes, Anna L. C.; Jakobsson, Martin; Kirchner, Nina; Livingstone, Stephen J.; Margold, Martin; Murton, Julian B.; Noormets, Riko; Peltier, W. Richard; Peteet, Dorothy M.; Piper, David J. W.; Preusser, Frank; Renssen, Hans; Roberts, David H.; Roche, Didier M.; Saint-Ange, Francky; Stroeven, Arjen P.; Teller, James T.

2015-01-01

Reconstructing the growth and decay of palaeo-ice sheets is critical to understanding mechanisms of global climate change and associated sea-level fluctuations in the past, present and future. The significance of palaeo-ice sheets is further underlined by the broad range of disciplines concerned with reconstructing their behaviour, many of which have undergone a rapid expansion since the 1980s. In particular, there has been a major increase in the size and qualitative diversity of empirical data used to reconstruct and date ice sheets, and major improvements in our ability to simulate their dynamics in numerical ice sheet models. These developments have made it increasingly necessary to forge interdisciplinary links between sub-disciplines and to link numerical modelling with observations and dating of proxy records. The aim of this paper is to evaluate recent developments in the methods used to reconstruct ice sheets and outline some key challenges that remain, with an emphasis on how future work might integrate terrestrial and marine evidence together with numerical modelling. Our focus is on pan-ice sheet reconstructions of the last deglaciation, but regional case studies are used to illustrate methodological achievements, challenges and opportunities. Whilst various disciplines have made important progress in our understanding of ice-sheet dynamics, it is clear that data-model integration remains under-used, and that uncertainties remain poorly quantified in both empirically-based and numerical ice-sheet reconstructions. The representation of past climate will continue to be the largest source of uncertainty for numerical modelling. As such, palaeo-observations are critical to constrain and validate modelling. State-of-the-art numerical models will continue to improve both in model resolution and in the breadth of inclusion of relevant processes, thereby enabling more accurate and more direct comparison with the increasing range of palaeo-observations. Thus, the capability is developing to use all relevant palaeo-records to more strongly constrain deglacial (and to a lesser extent pre-LGM) ice sheet evolution. In working towards that goal, the accurate representation of uncertainties is required for both constraint data and model outputs. Close cooperation between modelling and data-gathering communities is essential to ensure this capability is realised and continues to progress.

West Antarctic Ice Sheet Initiative. Volume 2: Discipline Reviews

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bindschadler, Robert A. (Editor)

1991-01-01

Seven discipline review papers are presented on the state of the knowledge of West Antarctica and opinions on how that knowledge must be increased to predict the future behavior of this ice sheet and to assess its potential to collapse, rapidly raising the global sea level. These are the goals of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet Initiative (WAIS).

Understanding Recent Mass Balance Changes of the Greenland Ice Sheet

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

vanderVeen, Cornelius

2003-01-01

The ultimate goal of this project is to better understand the current transfer of mass between the Greenland Ice Sheet, the world's oceans and the atmosphere, and to identify processes controlling the rate of this transfer, to be able to predict with greater confidence future contributions to global sea level rise. During the first year of this project, we focused on establishing longer-term records of change of selected outlet glaciers, reevaluation of mass input to the ice sheet and analysis of climate records derived from ice cores, and modeling meltwater production and runoff from the margins of the ice sheet.

Large-Ensemble modeling of past and future variations of the Antarctic Ice Sheet with a coupled ice-Earth-sea level model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pollard, David; DeConto, Robert; Gomez, Natalya

2016-04-01

To date, most modeling of the Antarctic Ice Sheet's response to future warming has been calibrated using recent and modern observations. As an alternate approach, we apply a hybrid 3-D ice sheet-shelf model to the last deglacial retreat of Antarctica, making use of geologic data of the last ~20,000 years to test the model against the large-scale variations during this period. The ice model is coupled to a global Earth-sea level model to improve modeling of the bedrock response and to capture ocean-ice gravitational interactions. Following several recent ice-sheet studies, we use Large Ensemble (LE) statistical methods, performing sets of 625 runs from 30,000 years to present with systematically varying model parameters. Objective scores for each run are calculated using modern data and past reconstructed grounding lines, relative sea level records, cosmogenic elevation-age data and uplift rates. The LE results are analyzed to calibrate 4 particularly uncertain model parameters that concern marginal ice processes and interaction with the ocean. LE's are extended into the future with climates following RCP scenarios. An additional scoring criterion tests the model's ability to reproduce estimated sea-level high stands in the warm mid-Pliocene, for which drastic retreat mechanisms of hydrofracturing and ice-cliff failure are needed in the model. The LE analysis provides future sea-level-rise envelopes with well-defined parametric uncertainty bounds. Sensitivities of future LE results to Pliocene sea-level estimates, coupling to the Earth-sea level model, and vertical profiles of Earth properties, will be presented.

Glaciological constraints on current ice mass changes from modelling the ice sheets over the glacial cycles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huybrechts, P.

2003-04-01

The evolution of continental ice sheets introduces a long time scale in the climate system. Large ice sheets have a memory of millenia, hence the present-day ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica are still adjusting to climatic variations extending back to the last glacial period. This trend is separate from the direct response to mass-balance changes on decadal time scales and needs to be correctly accounted for when assessing current and future contributions to sea level. One way to obtain estimates of current ice mass changes is to model the past history of the ice sheets and their underlying beds over the glacial cycles. Such calculations assist to distinguish between the longer-term ice-dynamic evolution and short-term mass-balance changes when interpreting altimetry data, and are helpful to isolate the effects of postglacial rebound from gravity and altimetry trends. The presentation will discuss results obtained from 3-D thermomechanical ice-sheet/lithosphere/bedrock models applied to the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets. The simulations are forced by time-dependent boundary conditions derived from sediment and ice core records and are constrained by geomorphological and glacial-geological data of past ice sheet and sea-level stands. Current simulations suggest that the Greenland ice sheet is close to balance, while the Antarctic ice sheet is still losing mass, mainly due to incomplete grounding-line retreat of the West Antarctic ice sheet since the LGM. The results indicate that altimetry trends are likely dominated by ice thickness changes but that the gravitational signal mainly reflects postglacial rebound.

Capabilities and performance of Elmer/Ice, a new generation ice-sheet model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gagliardini, O.; Zwinger, T.; Gillet-Chaulet, F.; Durand, G.; Favier, L.; de Fleurian, B.; Greve, R.; Malinen, M.; Martín, C.; Råback, P.; Ruokolainen, J.; Sacchettini, M.; Schäfer, M.; Seddik, H.; Thies, J.

2013-03-01

The Fourth IPCC Assessment Report concluded that ice-sheet flow models are unable to forecast the current increase of polar ice sheet discharge and the associated contribution to sea-level rise. Since then, the glaciological community has undertaken a huge effort to develop and improve a new generation of ice-flow models, and as a result, a significant number of new ice-sheet models have emerged. Among them is the parallel finite-element model Elmer/Ice, based on the open-source multi-physics code Elmer. It was one of the first full-Stokes models used to make projections for the evolution of the whole Greenland ice sheet for the coming two centuries. Originally developed to solve local ice flow problems of high mechanical and physical complexity, Elmer/Ice has today reached the maturity to solve larger scale problems, earning the status of an ice-sheet model. Here, we summarise almost 10 yr of development performed by different groups. We present the components already included in Elmer/Ice, its numerical performance, selected applications, as well as developments planned for the future.

Results of the Greenland ice sheet model initialisation experiments: ISMIP6 - initMIP-Greenland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goelzer, Heiko; Nowicki, Sophie; Edwards, Tamsin; Beckley, Matthew

2017-04-01

Ice sheet model initialisation has a large effect on projected future sea-level contributions and gives rise to important uncertainties. The goal of this intercomparison exercise for the continental-scale Greenland ice sheet is therefore to compare, evaluate and improve the initialisation techniques used in the ice sheet modelling community. The initMIP-Greenland project is the first in a series of ice sheet model intercomparison activities within ISMIP6 (Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6). The experimental set-up has been designed to allow comparison of the initial present-day state of the Greenland ice sheet between participating models and against observations. Furthermore, the initial states are tested with two schematic forward experiments to evaluate the initialisation in terms of model drift (forward run without any forcing) and response to a large perturbation (prescribed surface mass balance anomaly). We present and discuss results that highlight the wide diversity of data sets, boundary conditions and initialisation techniques used in the community to generate initial states of the Greenland ice sheet.

Challenges for understanding Antarctic surface hydrology and ice-shelf stability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kingslake, J.; Bell, R. E.; Banwell, A. F.; Boghosian, A.; Spergel, J.; Trusel, L. D.

2017-12-01

It is widely hypothesized that surface meltwater can contribute to ice mass loss in Antarctica through its impact on ice-shelf stability. Meltwater potentially expedites ice-shelf calving by flowing into and enlarging existing crevasses, and could even trigger ice-shelf disintegration via stresses generated by melt ponds. When ice shelves collapse, the adjacent grounded ice accelerates and thins, which contributes to sea-level rise. How these mechanisms mediate the interactions between the atmosphere, the ocean and the ice sheet is the subject of long-standing research efforts. The drainage of water across the surface of the Antarctic Ice Sheet and its ice shelves is beginning to be recognized as another important aspect of the system. Recent studies have revealed that surface meltwater drainage is more widespread than previously thought and that surface hydrological systems in Antarctica may expand and proliferate this century. Contrasting hypotheses regarding the impact of the proliferation of drainage systems on ice-shelf stability have emerged. Surface drainage could deliver meltwater to vulnerable area or export meltwater from ice shelves entirely. Which behavior dominates may have a large impact on the future response of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to atmospheric warming. We will discuss these recent discoveries and hypotheses, as well as new detailed studies of specific areas where hydrological systems are well developed, such as Amery and Nimrod Ice Shelves. We will highlight analogies that can be drawn with Greenlandic (near-)surface hydrology and, crucially, where hydrological systems on the two ice sheets are very different, leading to potentially important gaps in our understanding. Finally, we will look ahead to the key questions that we argue will need to be if we are to determine the role Antarctic surface hydrology could play in the future of the ice sheet. These include: Where does meltwater pond today and how will this change this century? What coupled glaciological-hydrological dynamics control how drainage systems will change as melt rates increase this century? How do we incorporate surface hydrology into ice-sheet models? While we may be currently unable to answer these and related questions, we aim to start the discussion on how the community can move towards answering them in the future.

Surface Energy and Mass Balance Model for Greenland Ice Sheet and Future Projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Xiaojian

The Greenland Ice Sheet contains nearly 3 million cubic kilometers of glacial ice. If the entire ice sheet completely melted, sea level would raise by nearly 7 meters. There is thus considerable interest in monitoring the mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet. Each year, the ice sheet gains ice from snowfall and loses ice through iceberg calving and surface melting. In this thesis, we develop, validate and apply a physics based numerical model to estimate current and future surface mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet. The numerical model consists of a coupled surface energy balance and englacial model that is simple enough that it can be used for long time scale model runs, but unlike previous empirical parameterizations, has a physical basis. The surface energy balance model predicts ice sheet surface temperature and melt production. The englacial model predicts the evolution of temperature and meltwater within the ice sheet. These two models can be combined with estimates of precipitation (snowfall) to estimate the mass balance over the Greenland Ice Sheet. We first compare model performance with in-situ observations to demonstrate that the model works well. We next evaluate how predictions are degraded when we statistically downscale global climate data. We find that a simple, nearest neighbor interpolation scheme with a lapse rate correction is able to adequately reproduce melt patterns on the Greenland Ice Sheet. These results are comparable to those obtained using empirical Positive Degree Day (PDD) methods. Having validated the model, we next drove the ice sheet model using the suite of atmospheric model runs available through the CMIP5 atmospheric model inter-comparison, which in turn built upon the RCP 8.5 (business as usual) scenarios. From this exercise we predict how much surface melt production will increase in the coming century. This results in 4-10 cm sea level equivalent, depending on the CMIP5 models. Finally, we try to bound melt water production from CMIP5 data with the model by assuming that the Greenland Ice Sheet is covered in black carbon (lowering the albedo) and perpetually covered by optically thick clouds (increasing long wave radiation). This upper bound roughly triples surface meltwater production, resulting in 30 cm of sea level rise by 2100. These model estimates, combined with prior research suggesting an additional 40-100 cm of sea level rise associated with dynamical discharge, suggest that the Greenland Ice Sheet is poised to contribute significantly to sea level rise in the coming century.

Role of ice-ocean interaction on glacier instability: Results from numerical modeling applied to Petermann Glacier (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nick, F.; Hubbard, A.; Vieli, A.; van der Veen, C. J.; Box, J. E.; Bates, R.; Luckman, A. J.

2009-12-01

Calving of icebergs and bottom melting from ice shelves accounts for roughly half the ice transferred from the Greenland Ice Sheet into the surrounding ocean, and virtually all of the ice loss from the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Petermann Glacier (north Greenland) with its 16 km wide and 80 km long floating tongue, experiences massive bottom melting. We apply a numerical ice flow model using a physically-based calving criterion based on crevasse depth to investigate the contribution of processes such as bottom melting, sea ice or sikkusak disintegration, surface run off and iceberg calving to the mass balance and instability of Petermann Glacier and its ice shelf. Our modeling study provides insights into the role of ice-ocean interaction, and on how to incorporate calving in ice sheet models, improving our ability to predict future ice sheet change.

Role of ice-ocean interaction on glacier instability: Results from numerical modelling applied to Petermann Glacier

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nick, Faezeh M.; Hubbard, Alun; van der Veen, Kees; Vieli, Andreas

2010-05-01

Calving of icebergs and bottom melting from ice shelves accounts for roughly half the ice transferred from the Greenland Ice Sheet into the surrounding ocean, and virtually all of the ice loss from the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Petermann Glacier (north Greenland) with its 16 km wide and 80 km long floating tongue, experiences massive bottom melting. We apply a numerical ice flow model using a physically-based calving criterion based on crevasse depth to investigate the contribution of processes such as bottom melting, sea ice or sikkusak disintegration, surface run off and iceberg calving to the mass balance and instability of Petermann Glacier and its ice shelf. Our modelling study provides insights into the role of ice-ocean interaction, and on how to incorporate calving in ice sheet models, improving our ability to predict future ice sheet change.

Exposure age and ice-sheet model constraints on Pliocene East Antarctic ice sheet dynamics.

PubMed

Yamane, Masako; Yokoyama, Yusuke; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Obrochta, Stephen; Saito, Fuyuki; Moriwaki, Kiichi; Matsuzaki, Hiroyuki

2015-04-24

The Late Pliocene epoch is a potential analogue for future climate in a warming world. Here we reconstruct Plio-Pleistocene East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) variability using cosmogenic nuclide exposure ages and model simulations to better understand ice sheet behaviour under such warm conditions. New and previously published exposure ages indicate interior-thickening during the Pliocene. An ice sheet model with mid-Pliocene boundary conditions also results in interior thickening and suggests that both the Wilkes Subglacial and Aurora Basins largely melted, offsetting increased ice volume. Considering contributions from West Antarctica and Greenland, this is consistent with the most recent IPCC AR5 estimate, which indicates that the Pliocene sea level likely did not exceed +20 m on Milankovitch timescales. The inception of colder climate since ∼3 Myr has increased the sea ice cover and inhibited active moisture transport to Antarctica, resulting in reduced ice sheet thickness, at least in coastal areas.

Clouds enhance Greenland ice sheet meltwater runoff.

PubMed

Van Tricht, K; Lhermitte, S; Lenaerts, J T M; Gorodetskaya, I V; L'Ecuyer, T S; Noël, B; van den Broeke, M R; Turner, D D; van Lipzig, N P M

2016-01-12

The Greenland ice sheet has become one of the main contributors to global sea level rise, predominantly through increased meltwater runoff. The main drivers of Greenland ice sheet runoff, however, remain poorly understood. Here we show that clouds enhance meltwater runoff by about one-third relative to clear skies, using a unique combination of active satellite observations, climate model data and snow model simulations. This impact results from a cloud radiative effect of 29.5 (±5.2) W m(-2). Contrary to conventional wisdom, however, the Greenland ice sheet responds to this energy through a new pathway by which clouds reduce meltwater refreezing as opposed to increasing surface melt directly, thereby accelerating bare-ice exposure and enhancing meltwater runoff. The high sensitivity of the Greenland ice sheet to both ice-only and liquid-bearing clouds highlights the need for accurate cloud representations in climate models, to better predict future contributions of the Greenland ice sheet to global sea level rise.

Clouds enhance Greenland ice sheet meltwater runoff

PubMed Central

Van Tricht, K.; Lhermitte, S.; Lenaerts, J. T. M.; Gorodetskaya, I. V.; L'Ecuyer, T. S.; Noël, B.; van den Broeke, M. R.; Turner, D. D.; van Lipzig, N. P. M.

2016-01-01

The Greenland ice sheet has become one of the main contributors to global sea level rise, predominantly through increased meltwater runoff. The main drivers of Greenland ice sheet runoff, however, remain poorly understood. Here we show that clouds enhance meltwater runoff by about one-third relative to clear skies, using a unique combination of active satellite observations, climate model data and snow model simulations. This impact results from a cloud radiative effect of 29.5 (±5.2) W m−2. Contrary to conventional wisdom, however, the Greenland ice sheet responds to this energy through a new pathway by which clouds reduce meltwater refreezing as opposed to increasing surface melt directly, thereby accelerating bare-ice exposure and enhancing meltwater runoff. The high sensitivity of the Greenland ice sheet to both ice-only and liquid-bearing clouds highlights the need for accurate cloud representations in climate models, to better predict future contributions of the Greenland ice sheet to global sea level rise. PMID:26756470

West Antarctic Ice Sheet Initiative. Volume 1: Science and Implementation Plan

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bindschadler, Robert A. (Editor)

1990-01-01

The Science and Implementation Plan of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet Initiative (WAIS) is described. The goal of this initiative is the prediction of the future behavior of this ice sheet and an assessment of its potential to collapse, rapidly raising global sea level. The multidisciplinary nature of WAIS reflects the complexity of the polar ice sheet environment. The project builds upon past and current polar studies in many fields and meshes with future programs of both the U.S. and other countries. Important tasks in each discipline are described and a coordinated schedule by which the majority of these tasks can be accomplished in 5 years is presented. The companion report (Volume 2) contains seven discipline review papers on the state of knowledge of Antarctica and opinions on how that knowledge must be increased to attain the WAIS goal.

Ice sheet altimetry

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brooks, R. L.

1981-01-01

Generalized surface slopes were computed for the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets by differencing plotted contour levels and dividing them by the distance between the contours. It was observed that more than 90% of the ice sheets have surface slopes less than 1%. Seasat test mode-1 Seasat altimeter measurements over Greenland were analyzed by comparisons with collinear and intersecting normal mode Seasat altimeter passes. Over the ice sheet, the computed surface elevations from test mode-1 measurements were consistently lower by about 45 m and the AGC levels were down by approximately 6 dB. No test mode-1 data were acquired over Antarctica. It is concluded that analysis of the existing altimeter data base over the two ice sheets is crucial in designing a future improved altimeter tracking capability. It is recommended that additional waveform retracking be performed to characterize ice sheet topography as a function of geographic area and elevation.

Greenland ice sheet retreat since the Little Ice Age

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beitch, Marci J.

Late 20th century and 21st century satellite imagery of the perimeter of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) provide high resolution observations of the ice sheet margins. Examining changes in ice margin positions over time yield measurements of GrIS area change and rates of margin retreat. However, longer records of ice sheet margin change are needed to establish more accurate predictions of the ice sheet's future response to global conditions. In this study, the trimzone, the area of deglaciated terrain along the ice sheet edge that lacks mature vegetation cover, is used as a marker of the maximum extent of the ice from its most recent major advance during the Little Ice Age. We compile recently acquired Landsat ETM+ scenes covering the perimeter of the GrIS on which we map area loss on land-, lake-, and marine-terminating margins. We measure an area loss of 13,327 +/- 830 km2, which corresponds to 0.8% shrinkage of the ice sheet. This equates to an averaged horizontal retreat of 363 +/- 69 m across the entire GrIS margin. Mapping the areas exposed since the Little Ice Age maximum, circa 1900 C.E., yields a century-scale rate of change. On average the ice sheet lost an area of 120 +/- 16 km 2/yr, or retreated at a rate of 3.3 +/- 0.7 m/yr since the LIA maximum.

Bedrock Erosion Surfaces Record Former East Antarctic Ice Sheet Extent

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paxman, Guy J. G.; Jamieson, Stewart S. R.; Ferraccioli, Fausto; Bentley, Michael J.; Ross, Neil; Armadillo, Egidio; Gasson, Edward G. W.; Leitchenkov, German; DeConto, Robert M.

2018-05-01

East Antarctica hosts large subglacial basins into which the East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) likely retreated during past warmer climates. However, the extent of retreat remains poorly constrained, making quantifying past and predicted future contributions to global sea level rise from these marine basins challenging. Geomorphological analysis and flexural modeling within the Wilkes Subglacial Basin are used to reconstruct the ice margin during warm intervals of the Oligocene-Miocene. Flat-lying bedrock plateaus are indicative of an ice sheet margin positioned >400-500 km inland of the modern grounding zone for extended periods of the Oligocene-Miocene, equivalent to a 2-m rise in global sea level. Our findings imply that if major EAIS retreat occurs in the future, isostatic rebound will enable the plateau surfaces to act as seeding points for extensive ice rises, thus limiting extensive ice margin retreat of the scale seen during the early EAIS.

Rate and style of ice stream retreat constrained by new surface-exposure ages: The Minch, NW Scotland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bradwell, Tom; Small, David; Fabel, Derek; Dove, Dayton; Cofaigh, Colm O.; Clark, Chris; Consortium, Britice-Chrono

2016-04-01

Chronologically constrained studies of former ice-sheet extents and dynamics are important for understanding past cryospheric responses and modelling future ice-sheet and sea-level change. As part of the BRITICE-CHRONO project, we present new geomorphological and chronological data from a marine-terminating ice stream system in NW Europe that operated during the Late Weichselian Glaciation. A suite of 51 cosmogenic-nuclide exposure ages from ice sheet moraines and glacially transported boulders constrain the maximum extent of the ice sheet on the continental shelf (~28 ka BP) and its subsequent retreat, between ~27 and 16 ka BP, into a large marine embayment (ca. 7000 km2; the Minch, NW Scotland). Recently acquired swath bathymetry and acoustic sub-bottom profiler data reveal several large transverse grounding-zone wedges up to 40 m thick and 5 km wide with diagnostic acoustic-facies architecture. These seabed sediment wedges mark former quasi-stable positions of grounded marine-terminating ice-stream fronts; their size and thickness suggest long-lived stillstands of the order of centuries. Statistically significant clusters of exposure ages from glacial deposits on islands and intervening headlands shed important new light on the age of these marine grounding-zone wedges and, by inference, the rate and timing of Minch palaeo-ice stream retreat. We find strong evidence for episodic ice stream retreat on the continental shelf between ~28-24 ka BP, in the outer Minch between ~24-22 ka BP, and in the central Minch between 22-18.5 ka BP. In contrast, final ice stream deglaciation (<18 ka) across the deepest parts of the inner Minch embayment, was probably rapid and uninterrupted - with the ice sheet margin at or close to the present-day coastline in NW Scotland by 16.1 ka BP. It is hoped that these results will form the empirical basis for future ice-sheet modelling of this dynamically sensitive sector of the British-Irish Ice Sheet.

The extent and timing of the last British-Irish Ice Sheet offshore of west Ireland-preliminary findings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peters, Jared; Benetti, Sara; Dunlop, Paul; Cofaigh, Colm Ó.

2014-05-01

Recently interpreted marine geophysical data from the western Irish shelf has provided the first direct evidence that the last British-Irish Ice Sheet (BIIS) extended westwards onto the Irish continental shelf as a grounded ice mass composed of several lobes with marine-terminating margins. Marine terminating ice margins are known to be sensitive to external forcing mechanisms and currently there is concern regarding the future stability of marine based ice sheets, such as the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, in a warming world. Given its position, the glaciated western Irish continental shelf is a prime location to investigate the processes of how marine-based ice sheets responded to past climatic and oceanic events, which may in turn help us better predict the future trajectory of the marine sectors of modern Ice Sheets. However, despite the potential importance of the former Irish ice margin to our understanding of ice sheet behaviour, the timing and nature of its advance and retreat is currently poorly understood. This study aims to describe the depositional history of the last BIIS on the continental shelf west of Ireland and age-constrain the rate of retreat of two ice lobes that extended from Galway Bay and Clew Bay. This is being accomplished through a multifaceted analysis of at least 29 sediment cores gathered across the continental shelf offshore of counties Galway and Mayo, Ireland. This poster shows results from initial sedimentological descriptions of cores from the mid to outer shelf, which support previous geomorphic interpretations of BIIS history. Preliminary palaeoenvironmental results from ongoing micropaleontological analyses are also discussed and provide new data that verifies sedimentary interpretations on ice proximity. Finally, results from several radiocarbon dates are discussed, which limit these deposits to the last glacial maximum and constrain the timings of ice advance and retreat on the continental shelf west of Ireland.

Global Projection of Coastal Exposure Associated with Sea-level Rise beyond Tipping Points

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tawatari, R.; Miyazaki, C.; Iseri, Y.; Kiguchi, M.; Kanae, S.

2015-12-01

Sea-level rise due to global warming becomes a great matter of concern for global coastal area. Additionally, it has reported in fifth report of IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) that deglaciation of Greenland ice sheet and Antarctic ice sheet would occur rapidly and enhance sea-level rise if temperature passes certain "Tipping point". In terms of projecting damage induced by sea-level rise globally, some previous studies focused on duration until mainly 2100. Furthermore long-term estimations on centuries to millennial climatic response of the ice sheets which are supposed to be triggered within this or next century would be also important to think about future climate and lifestyle in coastal . In this study, I estimated the long term sea-level which take into account the tipping points of Greenland ice sheet (1.4℃) as sum of 4 factors (thermal expansion, glacier and ice cap, Greenland ice sheet, Antarctic ice sheet). The sea-level follows 4 representative concentration pathways up to 3000 obtained through literature reviewing since there were limited available sea-level projections up to 3000. I also estimated a number of affected population lives in coastal area up to 3000 with using the estimated sea-level. The cost for damage, adaptation and mitigation would be also discussed. These estimations would be useful when decision-makers propose policies for construction of dikes and proposing mitigation plans for sustainable future. The result indicates there would be large and relatively rapid increases in both sea-level rise and coastal exposure if global mean temperature passes the tipping point of Greenland ice sheet. However the tipping points, melting rate and timescale of response are highly uncertain and still discussed among experts. Thus more precise and credible information is required for further accurate estimation of long-term sea-level rise and population exposure in the future.

Greenland-Wide Seasonal Temperatures During the Last Deglaciation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buizert, C.; Keisling, B. A.; Box, J. E.; He, F.; Carlson, A. E.; Sinclair, G.; DeConto, R. M.

2018-02-01

The sensitivity of the Greenland ice sheet to climate forcing is of key importance in assessing its contribution to past and future sea level rise. Surface mass loss occurs during summer, and accounting for temperature seasonality is critical in simulating ice sheet evolution and in interpreting glacial landforms and chronologies. Ice core records constrain the timing and magnitude of climate change but are largely limited to annual mean estimates from the ice sheet interior. Here we merge ice core reconstructions with transient climate model simulations to generate Greenland-wide and seasonally resolved surface air temperature fields during the last deglaciation. Greenland summer temperatures peak in the early Holocene, consistent with records of ice core melt layers. We perform deglacial Greenland ice sheet model simulations to demonstrate that accounting for realistic temperature seasonality decreases simulated glacial ice volume, expedites the deglacial margin retreat, mutes the impact of abrupt climate warming, and gives rise to a clear Holocene ice volume minimum.

Ice sheet climate modeling: past achievements, ongoing challenges, and future endeavors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lenaerts, J.

2017-12-01

Fluctuations in surface mass balance (SMB) mask out a substantial portion of contemporary Greenland and Antarctic ice sheet mass loss. That implies that we need accurate, consistent, and long-term SMB time series to isolate the mass loss signal. This in turn requires understanding of the processes driving SMB, and how they interplay. The primary controls on present-day ice sheet SMB are snowfall, which is regulated by large-scale atmospheric variability, and surface meltwater production at the ice sheet's edges, which is a complex result of atmosphere-surface interactions. Additionally, wind-driven snow redistribution and sublimation are large SMB contributors on the downslope areas of the ice sheets. Climate models provide an integrated framework to simulate all these individual ice sheet components. Recent developments in RACMO2, a regional climate model bound by atmospheric reanalyses, have focused on enhancing horizontal resolution, including blowing snow, snow albedo, and meltwater processes. Including these physics not only enhanced our understanding of the ice sheet climate system, but also enabled to obtain increasingly accurate estimates of ice sheet SMB. However, regional models are not suitable to capture the mutual interactions between ice sheet and the remainder of the global climate system in transient climates. To take that next step, global climate models are essential. In this talk, I will highlight our present work on improving ice sheet climate in the Community Earth System Model (CESM). In particular, we focus on an improved representation of polar firn, ice sheet clouds, and precipitation. For this exercise, we extensively use field observations, remote sensing data, as well as RACMO2. Next, I will highlight how CESM is used to enhance our understanding of ice sheet SMB, its drivers, and past and present changes.

Understanding Greenland ice sheet hydrology using an integrated multi-scale approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rennermalm, A. K.; Moustafa, S. E.; Mioduszewski, J.; Chu, V. W.; Forster, R. R.; Hagedorn, B.; Harper, J. T.; Mote, T. L.; Robinson, D. A.; Shuman, C. A.; Smith, L. C.; Tedesco, M.

2013-03-01

Improved understanding of Greenland ice sheet hydrology is critically important for assessing its impact on current and future ice sheet dynamics and global sea level rise. This has motivated the collection and integration of in situ observations, model development, and remote sensing efforts to quantify meltwater production, as well as its phase changes, transport, and export. Particularly urgent is a better understanding of albedo feedbacks leading to enhanced surface melt, potential positive feedbacks between ice sheet hydrology and dynamics, and meltwater retention in firn. These processes are not isolated, but must be understood as part of a continuum of processes within an integrated system. This letter describes a systems approach to the study of Greenland ice sheet hydrology, emphasizing component interconnections and feedbacks, and highlighting research and observational needs.

Sea-level response to ice sheet evolution: An ocean perspective

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jacobs, Stanley S.

1991-01-01

The ocean's influence upon and response to Antarctic ice sheet changes is considered in relation to sea level rise over recent and future decades. Assuming present day ice fronts are in approximate equilibrium, a preliminary budget for the ice sheet is estimated from accumulation vs. iceberg calving and the basal melting that occurs beneath floating ice shelves. Iceberg calving is derived from the volume of large bergs identified and tracked by the Navy/NOAA Joint Ice Center and from shipboard observations. Basal melting exceeds 600 cu km/yr and is concentrated near the ice fronts and ice shelf grounding lines. An apparent negative mass balance for the Antarctic ice sheet may result from an anomalous calving rate during the past decade, but there are large uncertainties associated with all components of the ice budget. The results from general circulation models are noted in the context of projected precipitation increases and ocean temperature changes on and near the continent. An ocean research program that could help refine budget estimates is consistent with goals of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet Initiative.

Clouds enhance Greenland ice sheet mass loss

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van Tricht, Kristof; Gorodetskaya, Irina V.; L'Ecuyer, Tristan; Lenaerts, Jan T. M.; Lhermitte, Stef; Noel, Brice; Turner, David D.; van den Broeke, Michiel R.; van Lipzig, Nicole P. M.

2015-04-01

Clouds have a profound influence on both the Arctic and global climate, while they still represent one of the key uncertainties in climate models, limiting the fidelity of future climate projections. The potentially important role of thin liquid-containing clouds over Greenland in enhancing ice sheet melt has recently gained interest, yet current research is spatially and temporally limited, focusing on particular events, and their large scale impact on the surface mass balance remains unknown. We used a combination of satellite remote sensing (CloudSat - CALIPSO), ground-based observations and climate model (RACMO) data to show that liquid-containing clouds warm the Greenland ice sheet 94% of the time. High surface reflectivity (albedo) for shortwave radiation reduces the cloud shortwave cooling effect on the absorbed fluxes, while not influencing the absorption of longwave radiation. Cloud warming over the ice sheet therefore dominates year-round. Only when albedo values drop below ~0.6 in the coastal areas during summer, the cooling effect starts to overcome the warming effect. The year-round excess of energy due to the presence of liquid-containing clouds has an extensive influence on the mass balance of the ice sheet. Simulations using the SNOWPACK snow model showed not only a strong influence of these liquid-containing clouds on melt increase, but also on the increased sublimation mass loss. Simulations with the Community Earth System Climate Model for the end of the 21st century (2080-2099) show that Greenland clouds contain more liquid water path and less ice water path. This implies that cloud radiative forcing will be further enhanced in the future. Our results therefore urge the need for improving cloud microphysics in climate models, to improve future projections of ice sheet mass balance and global sea level rise.

Oceanic Forcing of Ice-Sheet Retreat: West Antarctica and More

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alley, Richard B.; Anandakrishnan, Sridhar; Christianson, Knut; Horgan, Huw J.; Muto, Atsu; Parizek, Byron R.; Pollard, David; Walker, Ryan T.

2015-05-01

Ocean-ice interactions have exerted primary control on the Antarctic Ice Sheet and parts of the Greenland Ice Sheet, and will continue to do so in the near future, especially through melting of ice shelves and calving cliffs. Retreat in response to increasing marine melting typically exhibits threshold behavior, with little change for forcing below the threshold but a rapid, possibly delayed shift to a reduced state once the threshold is exceeded. For Thwaites Glacier, West Antarctica, the threshold may already have been exceeded, although rapid change may be delayed by centuries, and the reduced state will likely involve loss of most of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, causing >3 m of sea-level rise. Because of shortcomings in physical understanding and available data, uncertainty persists about this threshold and the subsequent rate of change. Although sea-level histories and physical understanding allow the possibility that ice-sheet response could be quite fast, no strong constraints are yet available on the worst-case scenario. Recent work also suggests that the Greenland and East Antarctic Ice Sheets share some of the same vulnerabilities to shrinkage from marine influence.

Ocean Tide Influences on the Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Padman, Laurie; Siegfried, Matthew R.; Fricker, Helen A.

2018-03-01

Ocean tides are the main source of high-frequency variability in the vertical and horizontal motion of ice sheets near their marine margins. Floating ice shelves, which occupy about three quarters of the perimeter of Antarctica and the termini of four outlet glaciers in northern Greenland, rise and fall in synchrony with the ocean tide. Lateral motion of floating and grounded portions of ice sheets near their marine margins can also include a tidal component. These tide-induced signals provide insight into the processes by which the oceans can affect ice sheet mass balance and dynamics. In this review, we summarize in situ and satellite-based measurements of the tidal response of ice shelves and grounded ice, and spatial variability of ocean tide heights and currents around the ice sheets. We review sensitivity of tide heights and currents as ocean geometry responds to variations in sea level, ice shelf thickness, and ice sheet mass and extent. We then describe coupled ice-ocean models and analytical glacier models that quantify the effect of ocean tides on lower-frequency ice sheet mass loss and motion. We suggest new observations and model developments to improve the representation of tides in coupled models that are used to predict future ice sheet mass loss and the associated contribution to sea level change. The most critical need is for new data to improve maps of bathymetry, ice shelf draft, spatial variability of the drag coefficient at the ice-ocean interface, and higher-resolution models with improved representation of tidal energy sinks.

Antarctic glacial history from numerical models and continental margin sediments

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barker, P.F.; Barrett, P.J.; Cooper, A. K.; Huybrechts, P.

1999-01-01

The climate record of glacially transported sediments in prograded wedges around the Antarctic outer continental shelf, and their derivatives in continental rise drifts, may be combined to produce an Antarctic ice sheet history, using numerical models of ice sheet response to temperature and sea-level change. Examination of published models suggests several preliminary conclusions about ice sheet history. The ice sheet's present high sensitivity to sea-level change at short (orbital) periods was developed gradually as its size increased, replacing a declining sensitivity to temperature. Models suggest that the ice sheet grew abruptly to 40% (or possibly more) of its present size at the Eocene-Oligocene boundary, mainly as a result of its own temperature sensitivity. A large but more gradual middle Miocene change was externally driven, probably by development of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) and Polar Front, provided that a few million years' delay can be explained. The Oligocene ice sheet varied considerably in size and areal extent, but the late Miocene ice sheet was more stable, though significantly warmer than today's. This difference probably relates to the confining effect of the Antarctic continental margin. Present-day numerical models of ice sheet development are sufficient to guide current sampling plans, but sea-ice formation, polar wander, basal topography and ice streaming can be identified as factors meriting additional modelling effort in the future.

Present-day and future Antarctic ice sheet climate and surface mass balance in the Community Earth System Model

DOE PAGES

Lenaerts, Jan T. M.; Vizcaino, Miren; Fyke, Jeremy Garmeson; ...

2016-02-01

Here, we present climate and surface mass balance (SMB) of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) as simulated by the global, coupled ocean–atmosphere–land Community Earth System Model (CESM) with a horizontal resolution of ~1° in the past, present and future (1850–2100). CESM correctly simulates present-day Antarctic sea ice extent, large-scale atmospheric circulation and near-surface climate, but fails to simulate the recent expansion of Antarctic sea ice. The present-day Antarctic ice sheet SMB equals 2280 ± 131Gtyear –1, which concurs with existing independent estimates of AIS SMB. When forced by two CMIP5 climate change scenarios (high mitigation scenario RCP2.6 and high-emission scenariomore » RCP8.5), CESM projects an increase of Antarctic ice sheet SMB of about 70 Gtyear –1 per degree warming. This increase is driven by enhanced snowfall, which is partially counteracted by more surface melt and runoff along the ice sheet’s edges. This intensifying hydrological cycle is predominantly driven by atmospheric warming, which increases (1) the moisture-carrying capacity of the atmosphere, (2) oceanic source region evaporation, and (3) summer AIS cloud liquid water content.« less

The Svalbard-Barents Sea ice-sheet - Historical, current and future perspectives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ingólfsson, Ólafur; Landvik, Jon Y.

2013-03-01

The history of research on the Late Quaternary Svalbard-Barents Sea ice sheet mirrors the developments of ideas and the shifts of paradigms in glacial theory over the past 150 years. Since the onset of scientific research there in the early 19th Century, Svalbard has been a natural laboratory where ideas and concepts have been tested, and played an important (but rarely acknowledged) role in the break-through of the Ice Age theory in the 1870's. The history of how the scientific perception of the Svalbard-Barents sea ice sheet developed in the mid-20th Century also tells a story of how a combination of fairly scattered and often contradictory observational data, and through both deductive and inductive reasoning, could outline a major ice sheet that had left but few tangible fingerprints. Since the 1980's, with increased terrestrial stratigraphical data, ever more marine geological evidence and better chronological control of glacial events, our perception of the Svalbard-Barents Sea ice sheet has changed. The first reconstructions depicted it as a static, concentric, single-domed ice sheet, with ice flowing from an ice divide over the central northern Barents Sea that expanded and declined in response to large-scale, Late Quaternary climate fluctuations, and which was more or less in tune with other major Northern Hemisphere ice sheets. We now increasingly perceive it as a very dynamic, multidomed ice sheet, controlled by climate fluctuations, relative sea-level change, as well as subglacial topography, substrate properties and basal temperature. In this respect, the Svalbard-Barents Sea ice sheet will increasingly hold the key for understanding the dynamics and processes of how marine-based ice sheets build-up and decay.

Probability based hydrologic catchments of the Greenland Ice Sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hudson, B. D.

2015-12-01

Greenland Ice Sheet melt water impacts ice sheet flow dynamics, fjord and coastal circulation, and sediment and biogeochemical fluxes. Melt water exiting the ice sheet also is a key term in its mass balance. Because of this, knowledge of the area of the ice sheet that contributes melt water to a given outlet (its hydrologic catchment) is important to many ice sheet studies and is especially critical to methods using river runoff to assess ice sheet mass balance. Yet uncertainty in delineating ice sheet hydrologic catchments is a problem that is rarely acknowledged. Ice sheet catchments are delineated as a function of both basal and surface topography. While surface topography is well known, basal topography is less certain because it is dependent on radar surveys. Here, I a present a Monte Carlo based approach to delineating ice sheet catchments that quantifies the impact of uncertain basal topography. In this scheme, over many iterations I randomly vary the ice sheet bed elevation within published error bounds (using Morlighem et al., 2014 bed and bed error datasets). For each iteration of ice sheet bed elevation, I calculate the hydraulic potentiometric surface and route water over its path of 'steepest' descent to delineate the catchment. I then use all realizations of the catchment to arrive at a probability map of all major melt water outlets in Greenland. I often find that catchment size is uncertain, with small, random perturbations in basal topography leading to large variations in catchments size. While some catchments are well defined, others can double or halve in size within published basal topography error bars. While some uncertainty will likely always remain, this work points to locations where studies of ice sheet hydrology would be the most successful, allows reinterpretation of past results, and points to where future radar surveys would be most advantageous.

Rewriting Ice Sheet "Glacier-ology"

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bindschadler, R.

2006-12-01

The revolution in glaciology driven by the suite of increasingly sophisticated satellite instruments has been no more extreme than in the area of ice dynamics. Years ago, glaciologists were (probably unwittingly) selective in what properties of mountain glaciers were also applied to ice sheets. This reinforced the view that they responded slowly to their environment. Notions of rapid response driven by the ideas of John Mercer, Bill Budd and Terry Hughes were politely rejected by the centrists of mainstream glaciological thought. How the tables have turned--and by the ice sheets themselves, captured in the act of rapidly changing by modern remote sensors! The saw-toothed record of sea-level change over past glacial-interglacial cycles required the existence of rapid ice loss processes. Satellite based observations, supported by hard-earned field observations have extended the time scale over which ice sheets can suddenly change to ever shorter intervals: from centuries, to decades, to years to even minutes. As changes continue to be observed, the scientific community is forced to consider new or previously ignored processes to explain these observations. The penultimate goal of ice-sheet dynamics is to credibly predict the future of both the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. In this important endeavor, there is no substitute for our ability to observe. Without the extensive data sets provided by remote sensing, numerical models can be neither tested nor improved. The impact of remote sensing on our existing ability to predict the future must be compared to our probable state of knowledge and ability were these data never collected. Among many satellite observed phenomena we would be largely or wholly ignorant of are the recent acceleration of ice throughout much of coastal Greenland; the sudden disintegration of multiple ice shelves along the Antarctic Peninsula; and the dramatic thinning and acceleration of the Amundsen Sea sector of West Antarctica. These observations are driving increased concern about rapidly increasing sea level, a process dominated by ice-sheet dynamics and largely identified, quantified, studied and monitored by satellite sensors.

Ice_Sheets_CCI: Essential Climate Variables for the Greenland Ice Sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Forsberg, R.; Sørensen, L. S.; Khan, A.; Aas, C.; Evansberget, D.; Adalsteinsdottir, G.; Mottram, R.; Andersen, S. B.; Ahlstrøm, A.; Dall, J.; Kusk, A.; Merryman, J.; Hvidberg, C.; Khvorostovsky, K.; Nagler, T.; Rott, H.; Scharrer, M.; Shepard, A.; Ticconi, F.; Engdahl, M.

2012-04-01

As part of the ESA Climate Change Initiative (www.esa-cci.org) a long-term project "ice_sheets_cci" started January 1, 2012, in addition to the existing 11 projects already generating Essential Climate Variables (ECV) for the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS). The "ice_sheets_cci" goal is to generate a consistent, long-term and timely set of key climate parameters for the Greenland ice sheet, to maximize the impact of European satellite data on climate research, from missions such as ERS, Envisat and the future Sentinel satellites. The climate parameters to be provided, at first in a research context, and in the longer perspective by a routine production system, would be grids of Greenland ice sheet elevation changes from radar altimetry, ice velocity from repeat-pass SAR data, as well as time series of marine-terminating glacier calving front locations and grounding lines for floating-front glaciers. The ice_sheets_cci project will involve a broad interaction of the relevant cryosphere and climate communities, first through user consultations and specifications, and later in 2012 optional participation in "best" algorithm selection activities, where prototype climate parameter variables for selected regions and time frames will be produced and validated using an objective set of criteria ("Round-Robin intercomparison"). This comparative algorithm selection activity will be completely open, and we invite all interested scientific groups with relevant experience to participate. The results of the "Round Robin" exercise will form the algorithmic basis for the future ECV production system. First prototype results will be generated and validated by early 2014. The poster will show the planned outline of the project and some early prototype results.

Thinning of the ice sheet in northwest Greenland over the past forty years.

PubMed

Paterson, W S; Reeh, N

2001-11-01

Thermal expansion of the oceans, as well as melting of glaciers, ice sheets and ice caps have been the main contributors to global sea level rise over the past century. The greatest uncertainty in predicting future sea level changes lies with our estimates of the mass balance of the ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica. Satellite measurements have been used to determine changes in these ice sheets on short timescales, demonstrating that surface-elevation changes on timescales of decades or less result mainly from variations in snow accumulation. Here we present direct measurements of the changes in surface elevation between 1954 and 1995 on a traverse across the north Greenland ice sheet. Measurements over a time interval of this length should reflect changes in ice flow-the important quantity for predicting changes in sea level-relatively unperturbed by short-term fluctuations in snow accumulation. We find only small changes in the eastern part of the transect, except for some thickening of the north ice stream. On the west side, however, the thinning rates of the ice sheet are significantly higher and thinning extends to higher elevations than had been anticipated from previous studies.

Interplay of grounding-line dynamics and sub-shelf melting during retreat of the Bjørnøyrenna Ice Stream.

PubMed

Petrini, Michele; Colleoni, Florence; Kirchner, Nina; Hughes, Anna L C; Camerlenghi, Angelo; Rebesco, Michele; Lucchi, Renata G; Forte, Emanuele; Colucci, Renato R; Noormets, Riko

2018-05-08

The Barents Sea Ice Sheet was a marine-based ice sheet, i.e., it rested on the Barents Sea floor during the Last Glacial Maximum (21 ky BP). The Bjørnøyrenna Ice Stream was the largest ice stream draining the Barents Sea Ice Sheet and is regarded as an analogue for contemporary ice streams in West Antarctica. Here, the retreat of the Bjørnøyrenna Ice Stream is simulated by means of two numerical ice sheet models and results assessed against geological data. We investigate the sensitivity of the ice stream to changes in ocean temperature and the impact of grounding-line physics on ice stream retreat. Our results suggest that the role played by sub-shelf melting depends on how the grounding-line physics is represented in the models. When an analytic constraint on the ice flux across the grounding line is applied, the retreat of Bjørnøyrenna Ice Stream is primarily driven by internal ice dynamics rather than by oceanic forcing. This suggests that implementations of grounding-line physics need to be carefully assessed when evaluating and predicting the response of contemporary marine-based ice sheets and individual ice streams to ongoing and future ocean warming.

IGLOO: an Intermediate Complexity Framework to Simulate Greenland Ice-Ocean Interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perrette, M.; Calov, R.; Beckmann, J.; Alexander, D.; Beyer, S.; Ganopolski, A.

2017-12-01

The Greenland ice-sheet is a major contributor to current and future sea level rise associated to climate warming. It is widely believed that over a century time scale, surface melting is the main driver of Greenland ice volume change, in contrast to melting by the ocean. It is due to relatively warmer air and less ice area exposed to melting by ocean water compared to Antarctica, its southern, larger twin. Yet most modeling studies do not have adequate grid resolution to represent fine-scale outlet glaciers and fjords at the margin of the ice sheet, where ice-ocean interaction occurs, and must use rather crude parameterizations to represent this process. Additionally, the ice-sheet area grounded below sea level has been reassessed upwards in the most recent estimates of bedrock elevation under the Greenland ice sheet, revealing a larger potential for marine-mediated melting than previously thought. In this work, we develop an original approach to estimate potential Greenland ice sheet contribution to sea level rise from ocean melting, in an intermediate complexity framework, IGLOO. We use a medium-resolution (5km) ice-sheet model coupled interactively to a number of 1-D flowline models for the individual outlet glaciers. We propose a semi-objective methodology to derive 1-D glacier geometries from 2-D Greenland datasets, as well as preliminary results of coupled ice-sheet-glaciers simulations with IGLOO.

Stochastic ice stream dynamics

PubMed Central

Bertagni, Matteo Bernard; Ridolfi, Luca

2016-01-01

Ice streams are narrow corridors of fast-flowing ice that constitute the arterial drainage network of ice sheets. Therefore, changes in ice stream flow are key to understanding paleoclimate, sea level changes, and rapid disintegration of ice sheets during deglaciation. The dynamics of ice flow are tightly coupled to the climate system through atmospheric temperature and snow recharge, which are known exhibit stochastic variability. Here we focus on the interplay between stochastic climate forcing and ice stream temporal dynamics. Our work demonstrates that realistic climate fluctuations are able to (i) induce the coexistence of dynamic behaviors that would be incompatible in a purely deterministic system and (ii) drive ice stream flow away from the regime expected in a steady climate. We conclude that environmental noise appears to be crucial to interpreting the past behavior of ice sheets, as well as to predicting their future evolution. PMID:27457960

Extensive retreat and re-advance of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet during the Holocene.

PubMed

Kingslake, J; Scherer, R P; Albrecht, T; Coenen, J; Powell, R D; Reese, R; Stansell, N D; Tulaczyk, S; Wearing, M G; Whitehouse, P L

2018-06-01

To predict the future contributions of the Antarctic ice sheets to sea-level rise, numerical models use reconstructions of past ice-sheet retreat after the Last Glacial Maximum to tune model parameters 1 . Reconstructions of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet have assumed that it retreated progressively throughout the Holocene epoch (the past 11,500 years or so) 2-4 . Here we show, however, that over this period the grounding line of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (which marks the point at which it is no longer in contact with the ground and becomes a floating ice shelf) retreated several hundred kilometres inland of today's grounding line, before isostatic rebound caused it to re-advance to its present position. Our evidence includes, first, radiocarbon dating of sediment cores recovered from beneath the ice streams of the Ross Sea sector, indicating widespread Holocene marine exposure; and second, ice-penetrating radar observations of englacial structure in the Weddell Sea sector, indicating ice-shelf grounding. We explore the implications of these findings with an ice-sheet model. Modelled re-advance of the grounding line in the Holocene requires ice-shelf grounding caused by isostatic rebound. Our findings overturn the assumption of progressive retreat of the grounding line during the Holocene in West Antarctica, and corroborate previous suggestions of ice-sheet re-advance 5 . Rebound-driven stabilizing processes were apparently able to halt and reverse climate-initiated ice loss. Whether these processes can reverse present-day ice loss 6 on millennial timescales will depend on bedrock topography and mantle viscosity-parameters that are difficult to measure and to incorporate into ice-sheet models.

A calving law for ice sheet models; Investigating the role of surface melt on dynamics of Greenland outlet glaciers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nick, F. M.; van der Veen, C. J.; Vieli, A.

2008-12-01

alving of icebergs accounts for perhaps as much as half the ice transferred from the Greenland Ice Sheet into the surrounding ocean, and virtually all of the ice loss from the Antarctic Ice Sheet. We have formulated a calving model that can be readily incorporated into time-evolving numerical ice-flow models. Our model is based on downward penetration of water-filled surface crevasses and upward propagation of basal crevasses. A calving event occurs when the depth of the surface crevasse (which increases as melting progresses through the summer) reaches the height of the basal crevasse. Our numerical ice sheet model is able to reproduce observed seasonal changes of Greenland outlet glaciers, such as fluctuations in flow speed and terminus positions. We have applied the model to Helheim Glacier on the east coast, and Petermann Glacier in the northwest. Our model suggests that rapid retreat of the claving front is highly affected by the amplified calving rate due to increasing water level in surface crevasses during warmer summers. Our results show little response to seasonally enhanced basal lubrication from surface melt. This modeling study provides insights into the role of surface and basal hydrology to ice sheet dynamics and on how to incorporate calving in ice sheet models and therefore advances our ability to predict future ice sheet change.

Diverse landscapes beneath Pine Island Glacier influence ice flow.

PubMed

Bingham, Robert G; Vaughan, David G; King, Edward C; Davies, Damon; Cornford, Stephen L; Smith, Andrew M; Arthern, Robert J; Brisbourne, Alex M; De Rydt, Jan; Graham, Alastair G C; Spagnolo, Matteo; Marsh, Oliver J; Shean, David E

2017-11-20

The retreating Pine Island Glacier (PIG), West Antarctica, presently contributes ~5-10% of global sea-level rise. PIG's retreat rate has increased in recent decades with associated thinning migrating upstream into tributaries feeding the main glacier trunk. To project future change requires modelling that includes robust parameterisation of basal traction, the resistance to ice flow at the bed. However, most ice-sheet models estimate basal traction from satellite-derived surface velocity, without a priori knowledge of the key processes from which it is derived, namely friction at the ice-bed interface and form drag, and the resistance to ice flow that arises as ice deforms to negotiate bed topography. Here, we present high-resolution maps, acquired using ice-penetrating radar, of the bed topography across parts of PIG. Contrary to lower-resolution data currently used for ice-sheet models, these data show a contrasting topography across the ice-bed interface. We show that these diverse subglacial landscapes have an impact on ice flow, and present a challenge for modelling ice-sheet evolution and projecting global sea-level rise from ice-sheet loss.

Complex Greenland outlet glacier flow captured

PubMed Central

Aschwanden, Andy; Fahnestock, Mark A.; Truffer, Martin

2016-01-01

The Greenland Ice Sheet is losing mass at an accelerating rate due to increased surface melt and flow acceleration in outlet glaciers. Quantifying future dynamic contributions to sea level requires accurate portrayal of outlet glaciers in ice sheet simulations, but to date poor knowledge of subglacial topography and limited model resolution have prevented reproduction of complex spatial patterns of outlet flow. Here we combine a high-resolution ice-sheet model coupled to uniformly applied models of subglacial hydrology and basal sliding, and a new subglacial topography data set to simulate the flow of the Greenland Ice Sheet. Flow patterns of many outlet glaciers are well captured, illustrating fundamental commonalities in outlet glacier flow and highlighting the importance of efforts to map subglacial topography. Success in reproducing present day flow patterns shows the potential for prognostic modelling of ice sheets without the need for spatially varying parameters with uncertain time evolution. PMID:26830316

Inland thinning on the Greenland ice sheet controlled by outlet glacier geometry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Felikson, Denis; Bartholomaus, Timothy C.; Catania, Ginny A.; Korsgaard, Niels J.; Kjær, Kurt H.; Morlighem, Mathieu; Noël, Brice; van den Broeke, Michiel; Stearns, Leigh A.; Shroyer, Emily L.; Sutherland, David A.; Nash, Jonathan D.

2017-04-01

Greenland’s contribution to future sea-level rise remains uncertain and a wide range of upper and lower bounds has been proposed. These predictions depend strongly on how mass loss--which is focused at the termini of marine-terminating outlet glaciers--can penetrate inland to the ice-sheet interior. Previous studies have shown that, at regional scales, Greenland ice sheet mass loss is correlated with atmospheric and oceanic warming. However, mass loss within individual outlet glacier catchments exhibits unexplained heterogeneity, hindering our ability to project ice-sheet response to future environmental forcing. Using digital elevation model differencing, we spatially resolve the dynamic portion of surface elevation change from 1985 to present within 16 outlet glacier catchments in West Greenland, where significant heterogeneity in ice loss exists. We show that the up-glacier extent of thinning and, thus, mass loss, is limited by glacier geometry. We find that 94% of the total dynamic loss occurs between the terminus and the location where the down-glacier advective speed of a kinematic wave of thinning is at least three times larger than its diffusive speed. This empirical threshold enables the identification of glaciers that are not currently thinning but are most susceptible to future thinning in the coming decades.

Unveiling climate and ice-sheet history from drilling in high-latitude margins and future perspectives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Escutia Dotti, Carlota

2010-05-01

Polar ice is an important component of the climate system, affecting global sea level, ocean circulation and heat transport, marine productivity, and albedo. During the last decades drilling in the Arctic (IODP ACEX and Bering Expeditions) and in Antarctica (ODP Legs 178, 188, IODP Expedition 318 and ANDRILL) has revealed regional information about sea ice and ice sheets development and evolution. Integration of this data with numerical modeling provide an understanding of the early development of the ice sheets and their variability through the Cenozoic. Much of this work points to atmospheric CO2 and other greenhouse gases concentrations as important triggering mechanism driving the onset of glaciation and subsequent ice volume variability. With current increasing atmospheric greenhouse gases concentrations resulting in rapidly rising global temperatures, studies of polar climates become increasingly prominent on the research agenda. Despite of the relevance of the high-latitudes in the global climate systems, the short- and long-term history of the ice sheets and sea-ice and its relationships with paleoclimatic, paleoceanographic, and sea level changes is still poorly understood. A multinational, multiplatform scientific drilling strategy is being developed to recover key physical evidence from selected high-latitude areas. This strategy is aimed at addressing key knowledge gaps about the role of polar ice in climate change, targeting questions such as timing of events, rates of change, tipping points, regional variations, and northern vs. southern hemispheres (in phase or out-of-phase) variability. This data is critical to provide constrains to sea-ice and ice sheet models, which are the basis for forecasting the future of the cryosphere in a warming world.

Using the glacial geomorphology of palaeo-ice streams to understand mechanisms of ice sheet collapse

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stokes, Chris R.; Margold, Martin; Clark, Chris; Tarasov, Lev

2017-04-01

Processes which bring about ice sheet deglaciation are critical to our understanding of glacial-interglacial cycles and ice sheet sensitivity to climate change. The precise mechanisms of deglaciation are also relevant to our understanding of modern-day ice sheet stability and concerns over global sea level rise. Mass loss from ice sheets can be broadly partitioned between melting and a 'dynamic' component whereby rapidly-flowing ice streams/outlet glaciers transfer ice from the interior to the oceans. Surface and basal melting (e.g. of ice shelves) are closely linked to atmospheric and oceanic conditions, but the mechanisms that drive dynamic changes in ice stream discharge are more complex, which generates much larger uncertainties about their future contribution to ice sheet mass loss and sea level rise. A major problem is that observations of modern-day ice streams typically span just a few decades and, at the ice-sheet scale, it is unclear how the entire drainage network of ice streams evolves during deglaciation. A key question is whether ice streams might increase and sustain rates of mass loss over centuries or millennia, beyond those expected for a given ocean-climate forcing. To address this issue, numerous workers have sought to understand ice stream dynamics over longer time-scales using their glacial geomorphology in the palaeo-record. Indeed, our understanding of their geomorphology has grown rapidly in the last three decades, from almost complete ignorance to a detailed knowledge of their geomorphological products. Building on this body of work, this paper uses the glacial geomorphology of 117 ice streams in the North American Laurentide Ice Sheet to reconstruct their activity during its deglaciation ( 22,000 to 7,000 years ago). Ice stream activity was characterised by high variability in both time and space, with ice streams switching on and off in different locations. During deglaciation, we find that their overall number decreased, they occupied a progressively smaller percentage of the ice sheet perimeter, and their total discharge decreased. Underlying geology and topography clearly influenced ice stream activity, but - at the ice sheet scale - their drainage network adjusted and was strongly linked to changes in ice sheet volume. It is unclear whether these findings are directly translatable to modern ice sheets but, contrary to the view that sees ice streams as unstable entities that can draw-down large sectors of an ice sheet and accelerate its demise, we conclude that they reduced in effectiveness during deglaciation of the Laurentide Ice Sheet, with final deglaciation accomplished most effectively by surface melting. This raises some interesting questions about the source and nature of major meltwater pulses and iceberg discharge events in the sea-level record.

Ice-Cliff Failure via Retrogressive Slumping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parizek, B. R.; Christianson, K.; Alley, R. B.; Voytenko, D.; Vankova, I.; Dixon, T. H.; Holland, D.

2016-12-01

The magnitude and rate of future sea-level rise from warming-induced ice-sheet shrinkage remain notably uncertain. Removal of most of an ice sheet by surface melting alone requires centuries to millennia. Oceanic warming may accelerate loss by removing buttressing ice shelves and thereby speeding flow of non-floating ice into the ocean, but, until recently, modeled timescales for major dynamic ice-sheet shrinkage were centuries or longer. Beyond certain thresholds, however, observations show that warming removes floating ice shelves, leaving grounded ice cliffs from which icebergs break off directly. Cliffs higher than some limit experience rapid structural failure. Recent parameterization of this process in a comprehensive ice-flow model produced much faster sea-level rise from future rapid warming than in previous modeling studies, through formation and retreat of tall ice cliffs. Fully physical representations of this process are not yet available, however. Here, we use modeling guided by terrestrial radar data from Helheim Glacier, Greenland to show that cliffs will fail by slumping and trigger rapid retreat at a threshold height that, in crevassed ice with surface melting, may be only slightly above the 100-m maximum observed today, but may be roughly twice that (180-275 m) in mechanically-competent ice under well-drained or low-melt conditions.

Extensive Holocene ice sheet grounding line retreat and uplift-driven readvance in West Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kingslake, J.; Scherer, R. P.; Albrecht, T.; Coenen, J. J.; Powell, R. D.; Reese, R.; Stansell, N.; Tulaczyk, S. M.; Whitehouse, P. L.

2017-12-01

The West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) reached its Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) extent 29-14 kyr before present. Numerical models used to project future ice-sheet contributions to sea-level rise exploit reconstructions of post-LGM ice mass loss to tune model parameterizations. Ice-sheet reconstructions are poorly constrained in areas where floating ice shelves or a lack of exposed geology obstruct conventional glacial-geological techniques. In the Weddell and Ross Sea sectors, ice-sheet reconstructions have traditionally assumed progressive grounding line (GL) retreat throughout the Holocene. Contrasting this view, using three distinct lines of evidence, we show that the GL retreated hundreds of kilometers inland of its present position, before glacial isostatic rebound during the Mid to Late Holocene caused the GL to readvance to its current position. Evidence for retreat and readvance during the last glacial termination includes (1) widespread radiocarbon in sediment cores recovered from beneath ice streams along the Siple and Gould Coasts, indicating marine exposure at least 200 km inland of the current GL, (2) ice-penetrating radar observations of relic crevasses and other englacial structures preserved in slow-moving grounded ice, indicating ice-shelf grounding and (3) an ensemble of new ice-sheet simulations showing widespread post-LGM retreat of the GL inland of its current location and later readvance. The model indicates that GL readvance across low slope ice-stream troughs requires uplift-driven grounding of the ice shelf on topographic highs (ice rises). Our findings highlight ice-shelf pinning points and lithospheric response to unloading as drivers of major ice-sheet fluctuations. Full WAIS collapse likely requires GL retreat well beyond its current position in the Ronne and Ross Sectors and linkage via Amundsen Sea sector glaciers.

Holocene temperature history at the west Greenland Ice Sheet margin reconstructed from lake sediments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Axford, Y.; Losee, S.; Briner, J. P.; Francis, D.; Langdon, P. G.; Walker, I.

2011-12-01

Paleoclimate proxy data can help reduce uncertainties regarding how the Greenland Ice Sheet, and thus global sea level, will respond to future climate change. Studies of terrestrial deposits along Greenland's margins offer opportunities to reconstruct both past temperature changes and the associated changes in Greenland Ice Sheet extent, thus empirically characterizing the ice sheet's response to temperature change. Here we present Holocene paleoclimate reconstructions developed from sediment records of five lakes along the western ice sheet margin, near Jakobshavn Isbræ and Disko Bugt. Insect (Chironomidae, or non-biting midge) remains from North Lake provide quantitative estimates of summer temperatures over the past ca. 7500 years at multi-centennial resolution, and changes in sediment composition at all five lakes offer evidence for glacier fluctuations, changes in lake productivity, and other environmental changes throughout the Holocene. Aims of this study include quantification of warmth in the early to mid Holocene, when summer solar insolation forcing exceeded present-day values at northern latitudes and the local Greenland Ice Sheet margin receded inboard of its present position, and the magnitude of subsequent Neoglacial and Little Ice Age cooling that drove ice sheet expansion. We find that the Jakobshavn Isbrae region experienced the warmest temperatures of the Holocene (with summers 2 to 3.5 degrees C warmer than present) between ~6000 and 4000 years ago. Neoglacial cooling began rather abruptly ~4000 years ago and intensified 3000 years ago. Our proxy data suggest that the coldest summers of the Holocene occurred during the 18th and 19th centuries in the Jakobshavn region. These results agree well with previous glacial geologic studies reconstructing local ice margin positions through the Holocene. Such reconstructions of paleoclimate and past ice sheet extent provide targets for testing and improving ice sheet models.

Projecting Antarctic ice discharge using response functions from SeaRISE ice-sheet models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Levermann, A.; Winkelmann, R.; Nowicki, S.; Fastook, J. L.; Frieler, K.; Greve, R.; Hellmer, H. H.; Martin, M. A.; Meinshausen, M.; Mengel, M.; Payne, A. J.; Pollard, D.; Sato, T.; Timmermann, R.; Wang, W. L.; Bindschadler, R. A.

2014-08-01

The largest uncertainty in projections of future sea-level change results from the potentially changing dynamical ice discharge from Antarctica. Basal ice-shelf melting induced by a warming ocean has been identified as a major cause for additional ice flow across the grounding line. Here we attempt to estimate the uncertainty range of future ice discharge from Antarctica by combining uncertainty in the climatic forcing, the oceanic response and the ice-sheet model response. The uncertainty in the global mean temperature increase is obtained from historically constrained emulations with the MAGICC-6.0 (Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse gas Induced Climate Change) model. The oceanic forcing is derived from scaling of the subsurface with the atmospheric warming from 19 comprehensive climate models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP-5) and two ocean models from the EU-project Ice2Sea. The dynamic ice-sheet response is derived from linear response functions for basal ice-shelf melting for four different Antarctic drainage regions using experiments from the Sea-level Response to Ice Sheet Evolution (SeaRISE) intercomparison project with five different Antarctic ice-sheet models. The resulting uncertainty range for the historic Antarctic contribution to global sea-level rise from 1992 to 2011 agrees with the observed contribution for this period if we use the three ice-sheet models with an explicit representation of ice-shelf dynamics and account for the time-delayed warming of the oceanic subsurface compared to the surface air temperature. The median of the additional ice loss for the 21st century is computed to 0.07 m (66% range: 0.02-0.14 m; 90% range: 0.0-0.23 m) of global sea-level equivalent for the low-emission RCP-2.6 (Representative Concentration Pathway) scenario and 0.09 m (66% range: 0.04-0.21 m; 90% range: 0.01-0.37 m) for the strongest RCP-8.5. Assuming no time delay between the atmospheric warming and the oceanic subsurface, these values increase to 0.09 m (66% range: 0.04-0.17 m; 90% range: 0.02-0.25 m) for RCP-2.6 and 0.15 m (66% range: 0.07-0.28 m; 90% range: 0.04-0.43 m) for RCP-8.5. All probability distributions are highly skewed towards high values. The applied ice-sheet models are coarse resolution with limitations in the representation of grounding-line motion. Within the constraints of the applied methods, the uncertainty induced from different ice-sheet models is smaller than that induced by the external forcing to the ice sheets.

Ice2sea - the future glacial contribution to sea-level rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vaughan, D. G.; Ice2sea Consortium

2009-04-01

The melting of continental ice (glaciers, ice caps and ice sheets) is a substantial source of current sea-level rise, and one that is accelerating more rapidly than was predicted even a few years ago. Indeed, the most recent report from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change highlighted that the uncertainty in projections of future sea-level rise is dominated by uncertainty concerning continental ice, and that understanding of the key processes that will lead to loss of continental ice must be improved before reliable projections of sea-level rise can be produced. Such projections are urgently required for effective sea-defence management and coastal adaptation planning. Ice2sea is a consortium of European institutes and international partners seeking European funding to support an integrated scientific programme to improve understanding concerning the future glacial contribution to sea-level rise. This includes improving understanding of the processes that control, past, current and future sea-level rise, and generation of improved estimates of the contribution of glacial components to sea-level rise over the next 200 years. The programme will include targeted studies of key processes in mountain glacier systems and ice caps (e.g. Svalbard), and in ice sheets in both polar regions (Greenland and Antarctica) to improve understanding of how these systems will respond to future climate change. It will include fieldwork and remote sensing studies, and develop a suite of new, cross-validated glacier and ice-sheet model. Ice2sea will deliver these results in forms accessible to scientists, policy-makers and the general public, which will include clear presentations of the sources of uncertainty. Our aim is both, to provide improved projections of the glacial contribution to sea-level rise, and to leave a legacy of improved tools and techniques that will form the basis of ongoing refinements in sea-level projection. Ice2sea will provide exciting opportunities for many early-career glaciologists and ice-modellers in a variety of host institutes.

Surface melt effects on Cryosat-2 elevation retrievals in the ablation zone of the Greenland ice sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Slater, T.; McMillan, M.; Shepherd, A.; Leeson, A.; Cornford, S. L.; Hogg, A.; Gilbert, L.; Muir, A. S.; Briggs, K.

2017-12-01

Over the past two decades, there has been an acceleration in the rate of mass losses from the Greenland ice sheet. This acceleration is, in part, attributed to an increasingly negative surface mass balance (SMB), linked to increasing melt water runoff rates due to enhanced surface melting. Understanding the past, present and future evolution in surface melting is central to ongoing monitoring of ice sheet mass balance and, in turn, to building realistic future projections. Currently, regional climate models are commonly used for this purpose, because direct in-situ observations are spatially and temporally sparse due to the logistics and resources required to collect such data. In particular, modelled SMB is used to estimate the extent and magnitude of surface melting, which influences (1) many geodetic mass balance estimates, and (2) snowpack microwave scattering properties. The latter is poorly understood and introduces uncertainty into radar altimeter estimates of ice sheet evolution. Here, we investigate the changes in CryoSat-2 waveforms and elevation measurements caused by the onset of surface melt in the summer months over the ablation zone of the Greenland ice sheet. Specifically, we use CryoSat-2 SARIn mode data acquired between 2011 and 2016, to characterise the effect of high variability in surface melt during this period, and to assess the associated impact on estimates of ice mass balance.

Antarctic ice-sheet loss driven by basal melting of ice shelves.

PubMed

Pritchard, H D; Ligtenberg, S R M; Fricker, H A; Vaughan, D G; van den Broeke, M R; Padman, L

2012-04-25

Accurate prediction of global sea-level rise requires that we understand the cause of recent, widespread and intensifying glacier acceleration along Antarctic ice-sheet coastal margins. Atmospheric and oceanic forcing have the potential to reduce the thickness and extent of floating ice shelves, potentially limiting their ability to buttress the flow of grounded tributary glaciers. Indeed, recent ice-shelf collapse led to retreat and acceleration of several glaciers on the Antarctic Peninsula. But the extent and magnitude of ice-shelf thickness change, the underlying causes of such change, and its link to glacier flow rate are so poorly understood that its future impact on the ice sheets cannot yet be predicted. Here we use satellite laser altimetry and modelling of the surface firn layer to reveal the circum-Antarctic pattern of ice-shelf thinning through increased basal melt. We deduce that this increased melt is the primary control of Antarctic ice-sheet loss, through a reduction in buttressing of the adjacent ice sheet leading to accelerated glacier flow. The highest thinning rates occur where warm water at depth can access thick ice shelves via submarine troughs crossing the continental shelf. Wind forcing could explain the dominant patterns of both basal melting and the surface melting and collapse of Antarctic ice shelves, through ocean upwelling in the Amundsen and Bellingshausen seas, and atmospheric warming on the Antarctic Peninsula. This implies that climate forcing through changing winds influences Antarctic ice-sheet mass balance, and hence global sea level, on annual to decadal timescales.

Antarctic ice sheet mass loss estimates using Modified Antarctic Mapping Mission surface flow observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ren, Diandong; Leslie, Lance M.; Lynch, Mervyn J.

2013-03-01

The long residence time of ice and the relatively gentle slopes of the Antarctica Ice Sheet make basal sliding a unique positive feedback mechanism in enhancing ice discharge along preferred routes. The highly organized ice stream channels extending to the interior from the lower reach of the outlets are a manifestation of the role of basal granular material in enhancing the ice flow. In this study, constraining the model-simulated year 2000 ice flow fields with surface velocities obtained from InSAR measurements permits retrieval of the basal sliding parameters. Forward integrations of the ice model driven by atmospheric and oceanic parameters from coupled general circulation models under different emission scenarios provide a range of estimates of total ice mass loss during the 21st century. The total mass loss rate has a small intermodel and interscenario spread, rising from approximately -160 km3/yr at present to approximately -220 km3/yr by 2100. The accelerated mass loss rate of the Antarctica Ice Sheet in a warming climate is due primarily to a dynamic response in the form of an increase in ice flow speed. Ice shelves contribute to this feedback through a reduced buttressing effect due to more frequent systematic, tabular calving events. For example, by 2100 the Ross Ice Shelf is projected to shed 40 km3 during each systematic tabular calving. After the frontal section's attrition, the remaining shelf will rebound. Consequently, the submerged cross-sectional area will reduce, as will the buttressing stress. Longitudinal differential warming of ocean temperature contributes to tabular calving. Because of the prevalence of fringe ice shelves, oceanic effects likely will play a very important role in the future mass balance of the Antarctica Ice Sheet, under a possible future warming climate.

Seismic evidence for complex sedimentary control of Greenland Ice Sheet flow

PubMed Central

Kulessa, Bernd; Hubbard, Alun L.; Booth, Adam D.; Bougamont, Marion; Dow, Christine F.; Doyle, Samuel H.; Christoffersen, Poul; Lindbäck, Katrin; Pettersson, Rickard; Fitzpatrick, Andrew A. W.; Jones, Glenn A.

2017-01-01

The land-terminating margin of the Greenland Ice Sheet has slowed down in recent decades, although the causes and implications for future ice flow are unclear. Explained originally by a self-regulating mechanism where basal slip reduces as drainage evolves from low to high efficiency, recent numerical modeling invokes a sedimentary control of ice sheet flow as an alternative hypothesis. Although both hypotheses can explain the recent slowdown, their respective forecasts of a long-term deceleration versus an acceleration of ice flow are contradictory. We present amplitude-versus-angle seismic data as the first observational test of the alternative hypothesis. We document transient modifications of basal sediment strengths by rapid subglacial drainages of supraglacial lakes, the primary current control on summer ice sheet flow according to our numerical model. Our observations agree with simulations of initial postdrainage sediment weakening and ice flow accelerations, and subsequent sediment restrengthening and ice flow decelerations, and thus confirm the alternative hypothesis. Although simulated melt season acceleration of ice flow due to weakening of subglacial sediments does not currently outweigh winter slowdown forced by self-regulation, they could dominate over the longer term. Subglacial sediments beneath the Greenland Ice Sheet must therefore be mapped and characterized, and a sedimentary control of ice flow must be evaluated against competing self-regulation mechanisms. PMID:28835915

Seismic evidence for complex sedimentary control of Greenland Ice Sheet flow.

PubMed

Kulessa, Bernd; Hubbard, Alun L; Booth, Adam D; Bougamont, Marion; Dow, Christine F; Doyle, Samuel H; Christoffersen, Poul; Lindbäck, Katrin; Pettersson, Rickard; Fitzpatrick, Andrew A W; Jones, Glenn A

2017-08-01

The land-terminating margin of the Greenland Ice Sheet has slowed down in recent decades, although the causes and implications for future ice flow are unclear. Explained originally by a self-regulating mechanism where basal slip reduces as drainage evolves from low to high efficiency, recent numerical modeling invokes a sedimentary control of ice sheet flow as an alternative hypothesis. Although both hypotheses can explain the recent slowdown, their respective forecasts of a long-term deceleration versus an acceleration of ice flow are contradictory. We present amplitude-versus-angle seismic data as the first observational test of the alternative hypothesis. We document transient modifications of basal sediment strengths by rapid subglacial drainages of supraglacial lakes, the primary current control on summer ice sheet flow according to our numerical model. Our observations agree with simulations of initial postdrainage sediment weakening and ice flow accelerations, and subsequent sediment restrengthening and ice flow decelerations, and thus confirm the alternative hypothesis. Although simulated melt season acceleration of ice flow due to weakening of subglacial sediments does not currently outweigh winter slowdown forced by self-regulation, they could dominate over the longer term. Subglacial sediments beneath the Greenland Ice Sheet must therefore be mapped and characterized, and a sedimentary control of ice flow must be evaluated against competing self-regulation mechanisms.

Evidence for a substantial West Antarctic ice sheet contribution to meltwater pulses and abrupt global sea level rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fogwill, C. J.; Turney, C. S.; Golledge, N. R.; Etheridge, D. M.; Rubino, M.; Thornton, D.; Woodward, J.; Winter, K.; van Ommen, T. D.; Moy, A. D.; Curran, M. A.; Rootes, C.; Rivera, A.; Millman, H.

2015-12-01

During the last deglaciation (21,000 to 7,000years ago) global sea level rise was punctuated by several abrupt meltwater spikes triggered by the retreat of ice sheets and glaciers world-wide. However, the debate regarding the relative timing, geographical source and the physical mechanisms driving these rapid increases in sea level has catalyzed debate critical to predicting future sea level rise and climate. Here we present a unique record of West Antarctic Ice Sheet elevation change derived from the Patriot Hills blue ice area, located close to the modern day grounding line of the Institute Ice Stream in the Weddell Sea Embayment. Combined isotopic signatures and gas volume analysis from the ice allows us to develop a record of local ice sheet palaeo-altitude that is assessed against independent regional high-resolution ice sheet modeling studies, allowing us to demonstrate that past ice sheet elevations across this sector of the WSE were considerably higher than those suggested by current terrestrial reconstructions. We argue that ice in the WSE had a significant influence on both pre and post LGM sea level rise including MWP-1A (~14.6 ka) and during MWP-1B (11.7-11.6 ka), reconciling past sea level rise and demonstrating for the first time that this sector of the WAIS made a significant and direct contribution to post LGM sea level rise.

Influence of temperature fluctuations on equilibrium
ice sheet volume

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bøgeholm Mikkelsen, Troels; Grinsted, Aslak; Ditlevsen, Peter

2018-01-01

Forecasting the future sea level relies on accurate modeling of the response of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets to changing temperatures. The surface mass balance (SMB) of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) has a nonlinear response to warming. Cold and warm anomalies of equal size do not cancel out and it is therefore important to consider the effect of interannual fluctuations in temperature. We find that the steady-state volume of an ice sheet is biased toward larger size if interannual temperature fluctuations are not taken into account in numerical modeling of the ice sheet. We illustrate this in a simple ice sheet model and find that the equilibrium ice volume is approximately 1 m SLE (meters sea level equivalent) smaller when the simple model is forced with fluctuating temperatures as opposed to a stable climate. It is therefore important to consider the effect of interannual temperature fluctuations when designing long experiments such as paleo-spin-ups. We show how the magnitude of the potential bias can be quantified statistically. For recent simulations of the Greenland Ice Sheet, we estimate the bias to be 30 Gt yr-1 (24-59 Gt yr-1, 95 % credibility) for a warming of 3 °C above preindustrial values, or 13 % (10-25, 95 % credibility) of the present-day rate of ice loss. Models of the Greenland Ice Sheet show a collapse threshold beyond which the ice sheet becomes unsustainable. The proximity of the threshold will be underestimated if temperature fluctuations are not taken into account. We estimate the bias to be 0.12 °C (0.10-0.18 °C, 95 % credibility) for a recent estimate of the threshold. In light of our findings it is important to gauge the extent to which this increased variability will influence the mass balance of the ice sheets.

NASA: First Map Of Thawed Areas Under Greenland Ice Sheet

NASA Image and Video Library

2017-12-08

NASA researchers have helped produce the first map showing what parts of the bottom of the massive Greenland Ice Sheet are thawed – key information in better predicting how the ice sheet will react to a warming climate. Greenland’s thick ice sheet insulates the bedrock below from the cold temperatures at the surface, so the bottom of the ice is often tens of degrees warmer than at the top, because the ice bottom is slowly warmed by heat coming from the Earth’s depths. Knowing whether Greenland’s ice lies on wet, slippery ground or is anchored to dry, frozen bedrock is essential for predicting how this ice will flow in the future, But scientists have very few direct observations of the thermal conditions beneath the ice sheet, obtained through fewer than two dozen boreholes that have reached the bottom. Now, a new study synthesizes several methods to infer the Greenland Ice Sheet’s basal thermal state –whether the bottom of the ice is melted or not– leading to the first map that identifies frozen and thawed areas across the whole ice sheet. Map caption: This first-of-a-kind map, showing which parts of the bottom of the Greenland Ice Sheet are likely thawed (red), frozen (blue) or still uncertain (gray), will help scientists better predict how the ice will flow in a warming climate. Credit: NASA Earth Observatory/Jesse Allen Read more: go.nasa.gov/2avKgl2 NASA image use policy. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center enables NASA’s mission through four scientific endeavors: Earth Science, Heliophysics, Solar System Exploration, and Astrophysics. Goddard plays a leading role in NASA’s accomplishments by contributing compelling scientific knowledge to advance the Agency’s mission. Follow us on Twitter Like us on Facebook Find us on Instagram

Rapid Holocene thinning of an East Antarctic outlet glacier driven by marine ice sheet instability

PubMed Central

Jones, R. S.; Mackintosh, A. N.; Norton, K. P.; Golledge, N. R.; Fogwill, C. J.; Kubik, P. W.; Christl, M.; Greenwood, S. L.

2015-01-01

Outlet glaciers grounded on a bed that deepens inland and extends below sea level are potentially vulnerable to ‘marine ice sheet instability'. This instability, which may lead to runaway ice loss, has been simulated in models, but its consequences have not been directly observed in geological records. Here we provide new surface-exposure ages from an outlet of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet that reveal rapid glacier thinning occurred approximately 7,000 years ago, in the absence of large environmental changes. Glacier thinning persisted for more than two and a half centuries, resulting in hundreds of metres of ice loss. Numerical simulations indicate that ice surface drawdown accelerated when the otherwise steadily retreating glacier encountered a bedrock trough. Together, the geological reconstruction and numerical simulations suggest that centennial-scale glacier thinning arose from unstable grounding line retreat. Capturing these instability processes in ice sheet models is important for predicting Antarctica's future contribution to sea level change. PMID:26608558

A balanced water layer concept for subglacial hydrology in large scale ice sheet models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goeller, S.; Thoma, M.; Grosfeld, K.; Miller, H.

2012-12-01

There is currently no doubt about the existence of a wide-spread hydrological network under the Antarctic ice sheet, which lubricates the ice base and thus leads to increased ice velocities. Consequently, ice models should incorporate basal hydrology to obtain meaningful results for future ice dynamics and their contribution to global sea level rise. Here, we introduce the balanced water layer concept, covering two prominent subglacial hydrological features for ice sheet modeling on a continental scale: the evolution of subglacial lakes and balance water fluxes. We couple it to the thermomechanical ice-flow model RIMBAY and apply it to a synthetic model domain inspired by the Gamburtsev Mountains, Antarctica. In our experiments we demonstrate the dynamic generation of subglacial lakes and their impact on the velocity field of the overlaying ice sheet, resulting in a negative ice mass balance. Furthermore, we introduce an elementary parametrization of the water flux-basal sliding coupling and reveal the predominance of the ice loss through the resulting ice streams against the stabilizing influence of less hydrologically active areas. We point out, that established balance flux schemes quantify these effects only partially as their ability to store subglacial water is lacking.

Collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet after local destabilization of the Amundsen Basin

PubMed Central

Feldmann, Johannes; Levermann, Anders

2015-01-01

The future evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet represents the largest uncertainty in sea-level projections of this and upcoming centuries. Recently, satellite observations and high-resolution simulations have suggested the initiation of an ice-sheet instability in the Amundsen Sea sector of West Antarctica, caused by the last decades’ enhanced basal ice-shelf melting. Whether this localized destabilization will yield a full discharge of marine ice from West Antarctica, associated with a global sea-level rise of more than 3 m, or whether the ice loss is limited by ice dynamics and topographic features, is unclear. Here we show that in the Parallel Ice Sheet Model, a local destabilization causes a complete disintegration of the marine ice in West Antarctica. In our simulations, at 5-km horizontal resolution, the region disequilibrates after 60 y of currently observed melt rates. Thereafter, the marine ice-sheet instability fully unfolds and is not halted by topographic features. In fact, the ice loss in Amundsen Sea sector shifts the catchment's ice divide toward the Filchner–Ronne and Ross ice shelves, which initiates grounding-line retreat there. Our simulations suggest that if a destabilization of Amundsen Sea sector has indeed been initiated, Antarctica will irrevocably contribute at least 3 m to global sea-level rise during the coming centuries to millennia. PMID:26578762

The future of ice sheets and sea ice: between reversible retreat and unstoppable loss.

PubMed

Notz, Dirk

2009-12-08

We discuss the existence of cryospheric "tipping points" in the Earth's climate system. Such critical thresholds have been suggested to exist for the disappearance of Arctic sea ice and the retreat of ice sheets: Once these ice masses have shrunk below an anticipated critical extent, the ice-albedo feedback might lead to the irreversible and unstoppable loss of the remaining ice. We here give an overview of our current understanding of such threshold behavior. By using conceptual arguments, we review the recent findings that such a tipping point probably does not exist for the loss of Arctic summer sea ice. Hence, in a cooler climate, sea ice could recover rapidly from the loss it has experienced in recent years. In addition, we discuss why this recent rapid retreat of Arctic summer sea ice might largely be a consequence of a slow shift in ice-thickness distribution, which will lead to strongly increased year-to-year variability of the Arctic summer sea-ice extent. This variability will render seasonal forecasts of the Arctic summer sea-ice extent increasingly difficult. We also discuss why, in contrast to Arctic summer sea ice, a tipping point is more likely to exist for the loss of the Greenland ice sheet and the West Antarctic ice sheet.

Outreach/education interface for Cryosphere models using the Virtual Ice Sheet Laboratory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Larour, E. Y.; Halkides, D. J.; Romero, V.; Cheng, D. L.; Perez, G.

2014-12-01

In the past decade, great strides have been made in the development of models capable of projecting the future evolution of glaciers and the polar ice sheets in a changing climate. These models are now capable of replicating some of the trends apparent in satellite observations. However, because this field is just now maturing, very few efforts have been dedicated to adapting these capabilities to education. Technologies that have been used in outreach efforts in Atmospheric and Oceanic sciences still have not been extended to Cryospheric Science. We present a cutting-edge, technologically driven virtual laboratory, geared towards outreach and k-12 education, dedicated to the polar ice sheets on Antarctica and Greenland, and their role as major contributors to sea level rise in coming decades. VISL (Virtual Ice Sheet Laboratory) relies on state-of-the art Web GL rendering of polar ice sheets, Android/iPhone and web portability using Javascript, as well as C++ simulations (back-end) based on the Ice Sheet System Model, the NASA model for simulating the evolution of polar ice sheets. Using VISL, educators and students can have an immersive experience into the world of polar ice sheets, while at the same exercising the capabilities of a state-of-the-art climate model, all of it embedded into an education experience that follows the new STEM standards for education.This work was performed at the California Institute of Technology's Jet Propulsion Laboratory under a contract with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Cryosphere Science Program.

Landforms, sediments and dates to constrain rates and style of marine-influenced ice sheet decay; the BRITICE-CHRONO project.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clark, Chris

2014-05-01

Uncertainty exists regarding the future mass of the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets and how they will respond to forcings from sea level, and atmospheric and ocean temperatures. If we want to know more about the mechanisms and rate of change of shrinking ice sheets, then why not examine an ice sheet that has fully disappeared and track its retreat through time? If achieved in enough detail such information on ice retreat could be a data-rich playground for improving the next breed of numerical ice sheet models to be used in ice and sea level forecasting. We regard that the last British-Irish Ice Sheet is a good target for this work, on account of its small size, density of information and with its numerous researchers already investigating it. Geomorphological mapping across the British Isles and the surrounding continental shelf has revealed the nature and distribution of glacial landforms. Here we demonstrate how such data have been used to build a pattern of ice margin retreat. The BRITICE-CHRONO consortium of Quaternary scientists and glaciologists, are now working on a project running from 2012 - 2017 to produce an ice sheet wide database of geochronometric dates to constrain and then understand ice margin retreat. This is being achieved by focusing on 8 transects running from the continental shelf edge to a short distance (10s km) onshore and acquiring marine and terrestrial samples for geochronometric dating. The project includes funding for 587 radiocarbon, 140 OSL and 158 TCN samples for surface exposure dating; with sampling accomplished by two research cruises and 16 fieldwork campaigns. Results will reveal the timing and rate of change of ice margin recession for each transect, and combined with existing landform and dating databases, will be used to build an ice sheet-wide empirical reconstruction of retreat. Simulations using two numerical ice sheet models, fitted against the margin data, will help us understand the nature and significance of sea-level rise and ocean/atmosphere forcing on influencing the rate of retreat and ice sheet demise and the effect that bed topography has in controlling this.

Assessing the Global Climate Response to Freshwater Forcing from the Antarctic Ice Sheet Under Future Climate Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rogstad, S.; Condron, A.; DeConto, R.; Pollard, D.

2017-12-01

Observational evidence indicates that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) is losing mass at an accelerating rate. Impacts to global climate resulting from changing ocean circulation patterns due to increased freshwater runoff from Antarctica in the future could have significant implications for global heat transport, but to-date this topic has not been investigated using complex numerical models with realistic freshwater forcing. Here, we present results from a high resolution fully coupled ocean-atmosphere model (CESM 1.2) forced with runoff from Antarctica prescribed from a high resolution regional ice sheet-ice shelf model. Results from the regional simulations indicate a potential freshwater contribution from Antarctica of up to 1 m equivalent sea level rise by the end of the century under RCP 8.5 indicating that a substantial input of freshwater into the Southern Ocean is possible. Our high resolution global simulations were performed under IPCC future climate scenarios RCP 4.5 and 8.5. We will present results showing the impact of WAIS collapse on global ocean circulation, sea ice, air temperature, and salinity in order to assess the potential for abrupt climate change triggered by WAIS collapse.

Switch of flow direction in an Antarctic ice stream.

PubMed

Conway, H; Catania, G; Raymond, C F; Gades, A M; Scambos, T A; Engelhardt, H

2002-10-03

Fast-flowing ice streams transport ice from the interior of West Antarctica to the ocean, and fluctuations in their activity control the mass balance of the ice sheet. The mass balance of the Ross Sea sector of the West Antarctic ice sheet is now positive--that is, it is growing--mainly because one of the ice streams (ice stream C) slowed down about 150 years ago. Here we present evidence from both surface measurements and remote sensing that demonstrates the highly dynamic nature of the Ross drainage system. We show that the flow in an area that once discharged into ice stream C has changed direction, now draining into the Whillans ice stream (formerly ice stream B). This switch in flow direction is a result of continuing thinning of the Whillans ice stream and recent thickening of ice stream C. Further abrupt reorganization of the activity and configuration of the ice streams over short timescales is to be expected in the future as the surface topography of the ice sheet responds to the combined effects of internal dynamics and long-term climate change. We suggest that caution is needed when using observations of short-term mass changes to draw conclusions about the large-scale mass balance of the ice sheet.

The future of ice sheets and sea ice: Between reversible retreat and unstoppable loss

PubMed Central

Notz, Dirk

2009-01-01

We discuss the existence of cryospheric “tipping points” in the Earth's climate system. Such critical thresholds have been suggested to exist for the disappearance of Arctic sea ice and the retreat of ice sheets: Once these ice masses have shrunk below an anticipated critical extent, the ice–albedo feedback might lead to the irreversible and unstoppable loss of the remaining ice. We here give an overview of our current understanding of such threshold behavior. By using conceptual arguments, we review the recent findings that such a tipping point probably does not exist for the loss of Arctic summer sea ice. Hence, in a cooler climate, sea ice could recover rapidly from the loss it has experienced in recent years. In addition, we discuss why this recent rapid retreat of Arctic summer sea ice might largely be a consequence of a slow shift in ice-thickness distribution, which will lead to strongly increased year-to-year variability of the Arctic summer sea-ice extent. This variability will render seasonal forecasts of the Arctic summer sea-ice extent increasingly difficult. We also discuss why, in contrast to Arctic summer sea ice, a tipping point is more likely to exist for the loss of the Greenland ice sheet and the West Antarctic ice sheet. PMID:19884496

Predicting uncertainty in future marine ice sheet volume using Bayesian statistical methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davis, A. D.

2015-12-01

The marine ice instability can trigger rapid retreat of marine ice streams. Recent observations suggest that marine ice systems in West Antarctica have begun retreating. However, unknown ice dynamics, computationally intensive mathematical models, and uncertain parameters in these models make predicting retreat rate and ice volume difficult. In this work, we fuse current observational data with ice stream/shelf models to develop probabilistic predictions of future grounded ice sheet volume. Given observational data (e.g., thickness, surface elevation, and velocity) and a forward model that relates uncertain parameters (e.g., basal friction and basal topography) to these observations, we use a Bayesian framework to define a posterior distribution over the parameters. A stochastic predictive model then propagates uncertainties in these parameters to uncertainty in a particular quantity of interest (QoI)---here, the volume of grounded ice at a specified future time. While the Bayesian approach can in principle characterize the posterior predictive distribution of the QoI, the computational cost of both the forward and predictive models makes this effort prohibitively expensive. To tackle this challenge, we introduce a new Markov chain Monte Carlo method that constructs convergent approximations of the QoI target density in an online fashion, yielding accurate characterizations of future ice sheet volume at significantly reduced computational cost.Our second goal is to attribute uncertainty in these Bayesian predictions to uncertainties in particular parameters. Doing so can help target data collection, for the purpose of constraining the parameters that contribute most strongly to uncertainty in the future volume of grounded ice. For instance, smaller uncertainties in parameters to which the QoI is highly sensitive may account for more variability in the prediction than larger uncertainties in parameters to which the QoI is less sensitive. We use global sensitivity analysis to help answer this question, and make the computation of sensitivity indices computationally tractable using a combination of polynomial chaos and Monte Carlo techniques.

Isostasy as a Driver of Paleo Retreat of the Greenland Ice Sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robinson, A.; Tabone, I.; Alvarez-Solas, J.; Montoya, M.

2016-12-01

During glacial times, the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) extended onto the continental shelf, and thus was much more directly affected by changing ocean temperatures through basal melt of the marine ice margins than it is today. The larger glacial ice sheet also induced lithospheric depression of several hundred meters in regions that are near sea level today. As the ice sheet retreated inland under interglacial climatic forcing, the regions significantly affected by local isostatic changes in elevation were exposed to much higher basal melt rates than they would have been given the present-day topography. Here we explore this effect using a hybrid ice sheet model that represents both grounded and floating ice, as well as local isostatic effects, and is driven by both atmospheric and oceanic temperature anomalies. We find that when transient oceanic forcing is included in the model, isostasy plays an important role in allowing oceanic melting to drive GrIS retreat in some regions. During the last interglacial, for example, this effect can account for a significant additional sea-level contribution, as well as an increase in the rate of sea-level rise. Our results highlight the importance of accounting for ice-ocean-lithosphere interactions in the past, in order to be able to properly reconstruct the evolution of the ice sheet, and for estimating its sensitivity to potential changes in climate in the future.

Asynchronous behavior of the Antarctic Ice Sheet and local glaciers during and since Termination 1, Salmon Valley, Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jackson, Margaret S.; Hall, Brenda L.; Denton, George H.

2018-01-01

The stability of the Antarctic Ice Sheet under future warming remains an open question with broad implications for sea-level prediction and adaptation. In particular, knowledge of whether the ice sheet has the capacity for rapid drawdown or collapse, or whether it can remain stable during periods of warming, is essential for predicting its future behavior. Here we use 55 radiocarbon dates, coupled with geomorphologic mapping, to reconstruct the timing of changes in ice extent and elevation during the last ice-age termination in Salmon Valley, adjacent to McMurdo Sound in the western Ross Sea Embayment. Results indicate that a grounded ice sheet in the Ross Sea Embayment achieved its maximum elevation and extent along the headlands of Salmon Valley at ∼18,000 yr BP, during a period of increasing temperatures and accumulation over the Antarctic continent. This ice remained at or near its maximum on the headlands near the valley mouth until after ∼14,000 yr BP. Removal of grounded Ross Sea ice from Salmon Valley was complete shortly after ∼7900 yr BP, indicating that the grounding line had retreated through southern McMurdo Sound by that time. We suggest the primary driver of Ross Sea ice removal from McMurdo Sound was marine-based, either through basal melting or calving due to sea-level rise. When combined with regional data, the Salmon Valley record suggests that this sector of the Antarctic Ice Sheet did not contribute in a significant way to deglacial meltwater pulses, such as meltwater pulse 1a. In contrast to the Ross Sea ice, our work also shows that local, independent alpine glaciers in Salmon Valley have advanced through the Holocene. Land-terminating glaciers such as these elsewhere in the region show a similar pattern, and may reflect the continued influence of increased accumulation following the termination of the last ice age.

The future of spaceborne altimetry. Oceans and climate change: A long-term strategy

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koblinsky, C. J. (Editor); Gaspar, P. (Editor); Lagerloef, G. (Editor)

1992-01-01

The ocean circulation and polar ice sheet volumes provide important memory and control functions in the global climate. Their long term variations are unknown and need to be understood before meaningful appraisals of climate change can be made. Satellite altimetry is the only method for providing global information on the ocean circulation and ice sheet volume. A robust altimeter measurement program is planned which will initiate global observations of the ocean circulation and polar ice sheets. In order to provide useful data about the climate, these measurements must be continued with unbroken coverage into the next century. Herein, past results of the role of the ocean in the climate system is summarized, near term goals are outlined, and requirements and options are presented for future altimeter missions. There are three basic scientific objectives for the program: ocean circulation; polar ice sheets; and mean sea level change. The greatest scientific benefit will be achieved with a series of dedicated high precision altimeter spacecraft, for which the choice of orbit parameters and system accuracy are unencumbered by requirements of companion instruments.

Glacial dynamics (glaciology)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Whillans, Ian

1991-01-01

Recent results are reviewed from studies of ice dynamics that relate to the objectives of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet initiative. The large amount of knowledge gained is emphasized. The best evidence shows that the ice sheet in West Antarctic is the most rapidly changing ice sheet on earth today. Its rate of change is much faster than most glaciologists had expected and it is changing in a manner much more complex than foreseen. It appears that the changes have two broad causes: a delayed but ongoing response to the termination of the last glaciation about 10,000 years ago; and automatic, internally caused flow adjustments. It is not fully known why the response to the last global termination is so delayed, nor is the operation of internal instabilities understood, and certainly the position has not yet been attained to predict the future course of the evolution of the ice sheet.

Evidence for the stability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet divide for 1.4 million years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hein, Andrew S.; Woodward, John; Marrero, Shasta M.; Dunning, Stuart A.; Steig, Eric J.; Freeman, Stewart P. H. T.; Stuart, Finlay M.; Winter, Kate; Westoby, Matthew J.; Sugden, David E.

2016-02-01

Past fluctuations of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) are of fundamental interest because of the possibility of WAIS collapse in the future and a consequent rise in global sea level. However, the configuration and stability of the ice sheet during past interglacial periods remains uncertain. Here we present geomorphological evidence and multiple cosmogenic nuclide data from the southern Ellsworth Mountains to suggest that the divide of the WAIS has fluctuated only modestly in location and thickness for at least the last 1.4 million years. Fluctuations during glacial-interglacial cycles appear superimposed on a long-term trajectory of ice-surface lowering relative to the mountains. This implies that as a minimum, a regional ice sheet centred on the Ellsworth-Whitmore uplands may have survived Pleistocene warm periods. If so, it constrains the WAIS contribution to global sea level rise during interglacials to about 3.3 m above present.

A Detailed Geophysical Investigation of the Grounding of Henry Ice Rise, with Implications for Holocene Ice-Sheet Extent.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wearing, M.; Kingslake, J.

2017-12-01

It is generally assumed that since the Last Glacial Maximum the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) has experienced monotonic retreat of the grounding line (GL). However, recent studies have cast doubt on this assumption, suggesting that the retreat of the WAIS grounding line may have been followed by a significant advance during the Holocene in the Weddell and Ross Sea sectors. Constraining this evolution is important as reconstructions of past ice-sheet extent are used to spin-up predictive ice-sheet models and correct mass-balance observations for glacial isostatic adjustment. Here we examine in detail the formation of the Henry Ice Rise (HIR), which ice-sheet model simulations suggest played a key role in Holocene ice-mass changes in the Weddell Sea sector. Observations from a high-resolution ground-based, ice-penetrating radar survey are best explained if the ice rise formed when the Ronne Ice Shelf grounded on a submarine high, underwent a period of ice-rumple flow, before the GL migrated outwards to form the present-day ice rise. We constrain the relative chronology of this evolution by comparing the alignment and intersection of isochronal internal layers, relic crevasses, surface features and investigating the dynamic processes leading to their complex structure. We also draw analogies between HIR and the neighbouring Doake Ice Rumples. The date of formation is estimated using vertical velocities derived with a phase-sensitive radio-echo sounder (pRES). Ice-sheet models suggest that the formation of the HIR and other ice rises may have halted and reversed large-scale GL retreat. Hence the small-scale dynamics of these crucial regions could have wide-reaching consequences for future ice-sheet mass changes and constraining their formation and evolution further would be beneficial. One stringent test of our geophysics-based conclusions would be to drill to the bed of HIR to sample the ice for isotopic analysis and the bed for radiocarbon analysis.

Repeated large-scale retreat and advance of Totten Glacier indicated by inland bed erosion.

PubMed

Aitken, A R A; Roberts, J L; van Ommen, T D; Young, D A; Golledge, N R; Greenbaum, J S; Blankenship, D D; Siegert, M J

2016-05-19

Climate variations cause ice sheets to retreat and advance, raising or lowering sea level by metres to decametres. The basic relationship is unambiguous, but the timing, magnitude and sources of sea-level change remain unclear; in particular, the contribution of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) is ill defined, restricting our appreciation of potential future change. Several lines of evidence suggest possible collapse of the Totten Glacier into interior basins during past warm periods, most notably the Pliocene epoch, causing several metres of sea-level rise. However, the structure and long-term evolution of the ice sheet in this region have been understood insufficiently to constrain past ice-sheet extents. Here we show that deep ice-sheet erosion-enough to expose basement rocks-has occurred in two regions: the head of the Totten Glacier, within 150 kilometres of today's grounding line; and deep within the Sabrina Subglacial Basin, 350-550 kilometres from this grounding line. Our results, based on ICECAP aerogeophysical data, demarcate the marginal zones of two distinct quasi-stable EAIS configurations, corresponding to the 'modern-scale' ice sheet (with a marginal zone near the present ice-sheet margin) and the retreated ice sheet (with the marginal zone located far inland). The transitional region of 200-250 kilometres in width is less eroded, suggesting shorter-lived exposure to eroding conditions during repeated retreat-advance events, which are probably driven by ocean-forced instabilities. Representative ice-sheet models indicate that the global sea-level increase resulting from retreat in this sector can be up to 0.9 metres in the modern-scale configuration, and exceeds 2 metres in the retreated configuration.

Assessing the role of internal climate variability in Antarctica's contribution to future sea-level rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsai, C. Y.; Forest, C. E.; Pollard, D.

2017-12-01

The Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) has the potential to be a major contributor to future sea-level rise (SLR). Current projections of SLR due to AIS mass loss remain highly uncertain. Better understanding of how ice sheets respond to future climate forcing and variability is essential for assessing the long-term risk of SLR. However, the predictability of future climate is limited by uncertainties from emission scenarios, model structural differences, and the internal variability that is inherently generated within the fully coupled climate system. Among those uncertainties, the impact of internal variability on the AIS changes has not been explicitly assessed. In this study, we quantify the effect of internal variability on the AIS evolutions by using climate fields from two large-ensemble experiments using the Community Earth System Model to force a three-dimensional ice sheet model. We find that internal variability of climate fields, particularly atmospheric fields, among ensemble members leads to significantly different AIS responses. Our results show that the internal variability can cause about 80 mm differences of AIS contribution to SLR by 2100 compared to the ensemble-mean contribution of 380-450 mm. Moreover, using ensemble-mean climate fields as the forcing in the ice sheet model does not produce realistic simulations of the ice loss. Instead, it significantly delays the onset of retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet for up to 20 years and significantly underestimates the AIS contribution to SLR by 0.07-0.11 m in 2100 and up to 0.34 m in the 2250's. Therefore, because the uncertainty caused by internal variability is irreducible, we seek to highlight a critical need to assess the role of internal variability in projecting the AIS loss over the next few centuries. By quantifying the impact of internal variability on AIS contribution to SLR, policy makers can obtain more robust estimates of SLR and implement suitable adaptation strategies.

Ice Streams as the Critical Link Between the Interior Ice Reservoir of the Antarctic Ice Sheet and the Global Climate System - a WISSARD Perspective (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tulaczyk, S. M.; Beem, L.; Walter, J. I.; Hossainzadeh, S.; Mankoff, K. D.

2010-12-01

Fast flowing ice streams represent crucial features of the Antarctic ice sheet because they provide discharge ‘valves’ for the interior ice reservoir and because their grounding lines are exposed to ocean thermal forcing. Even with no/little topographic control ice flow near the perimeter of a polar ice sheet self-organizes into discrete, fast-flowing ice streams. Within these features basal melting (i.e. lubrication for ice sliding) is sustained through elevated basal shear heating in a region of thin ice that would otherwise be characterized by basal freezing and slow ice motion. Because faster basal ice motion is typically associated with faster subglacial erosion, ice streams tend to localize themselves over time by carving troughs into underlying rocks and sediments. Debris generated by this erosional activity is carried to the continental shelf and/or continental slope where it may be deposited at very high rates, rivaling these associated with deposition by some of the largest rivers on Earth. In terms of their hydrologic and geological functions, Antarctic ice streams play pretty much the same role as rivers do on non-glaciated continents. However, understanding of their dynamics is still quite rudimentary, largely because of the relative inaccessibility of the key basal and marine boundaries of ice streams where pertinent measurements need to be made. The present elevated interest in predicting future contribution of Antarctica to global sea level changes is driving ambitious research programs aimed at scientific exploration of these poorly investigated environments that will play a key role in defining the response of the ice sheet to near future climate changes. We will review one of these programs, the Whillans Ice Stream Subglacial Access Research Drilling (WISSARD) with particular focus on its planned contributions to understanding of ice stream dynamics.

The Antarctic Ice Sheet during the last Interglaciation: Insights from my Thesis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Whipple, Matthew; Lunt, Dan; Singarayer, Joy; Bradley, Sarah; Milne, Glenn; Wolff, Eric; Siddall, Mark

2015-04-01

The last interglaciation represents a period of warmer climates and higher sea levels, and a useful analogue to future climate. While many studies have focussed on the response of the Greenland Ice sheet, far less is known about the response of the Antarctic ice sheet. Here, I present the summarised results of my PhD thesis "Constraints on the minimum extent of the Antarctic ice sheet during the last interglaciation". Firstly, I cover the timings of interglaciation in Antarctica, and their differences with respect to the Northern Hemisphere timings, based on paleo sea level indicators, and oceanic temperature records. I move on to cover climate forcings, and how they influence the ice sheet, relative to present, and early Holocene. Secondly, I present thesis results, from looking at ice core stable water isotopes. These are compared with Isostatic and Climatic modelling results, for various different Ice sheet scenarios, as to the resulting Climate, from changes in Elevation, Temperature, Precipitation, and Sublimation, all contributing to the recorded stable water isotope record. Thirdly, I move on to looking at the mid-field relative sea level records, from Australia and Argentina. Using isostatic modelling, these are used to assess the relative contribution of the Eastern and Western Antarctic Ice sheets. Although data uncertainties result in us being to identify the contribution from West Antarctica. Overall, using model-data comparison, we find a lack of evidence for a substantial retreat of the Wilkes Subglacial basin. No data location is close enough to determine the existence of the marine based West Antarctic Ice sheet. Model uncertainty is unable to constrain evidence of variations in ice thickness in East Antarctica.

Ice Sheet Roughness Estimation Based on Impulse Responses Acquired in the Global Ice Sheet Mapping Orbiter Mission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Niamsuwan, N.; Johnson, J. T.; Jezek, K. C.; Gogineni, P.

2008-12-01

The Global Ice Sheet Mapping Orbiter (GISMO) mission was developed to address scientific needs to understand the polar ice subsurface structure. This NASA Instrument Incubator Program project is a collaboration between Ohio State University, the University of Kansas, Vexcel Corporation and NASA. The GISMO design utilizes an interferometric SAR (InSAR) strategy in which ice sheet reflected signals received by a dual-antenna system are used to produce an interference pattern. The resulting interferogram can be used to filter out surface clutter so as to reveal the signals scattered from the base of the ice sheet. These signals are further processed to produce 3D-images representing basal topography of the ice sheet. In the past three years, the GISMO airborne field campaigns that have been conducted provide a set of useful data for studying geophysical properties of the Greenland ice sheet. While topography information can be obtained using interferometric SAR processing techniques, ice sheet roughness statistics can also be derived by a relatively simple procedure that involves analyzing power levels and the shape of the radar impulse response waveforms. An electromagnetic scattering model describing GISMO impulse responses has previously been proposed and validated. This model suggested that rms-heights and correlation lengths of the upper surface profile can be determined from the peak power and the decay rate of the pulse return waveform, respectively. This presentation will demonstrate a procedure for estimating the roughness of ice surfaces by fitting the GISMO impulse response model to retrieved waveforms from selected GISMO flights. Furthermore, an extension of this procedure to estimate the scattering coefficient of the glacier bed will be addressed as well. Planned future applications involving the classification of glacier bed conditions based on the derived scattering coefficients will also be described.

Sensitivity of Pliocene ice sheets to orbital forcing

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dolan, A.M.; Haywood, A.M.; Hill, D.J.; Dowsett, H.J.; Hunter, S.J.; Lunt, D.J.; Pickering, S.J.

2011-01-01

The stability of the Earth's major ice sheets is a critical uncertainty in predictions of future climate and sea level change. One method of investigating the behaviour of the Greenland and the Antarctic ice sheets in a warmer-than-modern climate is to look back at past warm periods of Earth history, for example the Pliocene. This paper presents climate and ice sheet modelling results for the mid-Pliocene warm period (mPWP; 3.3 to 3.0 million years ago), which has been identified as a key interval for understanding warmer-than-modern climates (Jansen et al., 2007). Using boundary conditions supplied by the United States Geological Survey PRISM Group (Pliocene Research, Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping), the Hadley Centre coupled ocean–atmosphere climate model (HadCM3) and the British Antarctic Survey Ice Sheet Model (BASISM), we show large reductions in the Greenland and East Antarctic Ice Sheets (GrIS and EAIS) compared to modern in standard mPWP experiments. We also present the first results illustrating the variability of the ice sheets due to realistic orbital forcing during the mid-Pliocene. While GrIS volumes are lower than modern under even the most extreme (cold) mid-Pliocene orbit (losing at least 35% of its ice mass), the EAIS can both grow and shrink, losing up to 20% or gaining up to 10% of its present-day volume. The changes in ice sheet volume incurred by altering orbital forcing alone means that global sea level can vary by more than 25 m during the mid-Pliocene. However, we have also shown that the response of the ice sheets to mPWP orbital hemispheric forcing can be in anti-phase, whereby the greatest reductions in EAIS volume are concurrent with the smallest reductions of the GrIS. If this anti-phase relationship is in operation throughout the mPWP, then the total eustatic sea level response would be dampened compared to the ice sheet fluctuations that are theoretically possible. This suggests that maximum eustatic sea level rise does not correspond to orbital maxima, but occurs at times where the anti-phasing of Northern and Southern Hemisphere ice sheet retreat is minimised.

Capabilities and performance of Elmer/Ice, a new-generation ice sheet model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gagliardini, O.; Zwinger, T.; Gillet-Chaulet, F.; Durand, G.; Favier, L.; de Fleurian, B.; Greve, R.; Malinen, M.; Martín, C.; Råback, P.; Ruokolainen, J.; Sacchettini, M.; Schäfer, M.; Seddik, H.; Thies, J.

2013-08-01

The Fourth IPCC Assessment Report concluded that ice sheet flow models, in their current state, were unable to provide accurate forecast for the increase of polar ice sheet discharge and the associated contribution to sea level rise. Since then, the glaciological community has undertaken a huge effort to develop and improve a new generation of ice flow models, and as a result a significant number of new ice sheet models have emerged. Among them is the parallel finite-element model Elmer/Ice, based on the open-source multi-physics code Elmer. It was one of the first full-Stokes models used to make projections for the evolution of the whole Greenland ice sheet for the coming two centuries. Originally developed to solve local ice flow problems of high mechanical and physical complexity, Elmer/Ice has today reached the maturity to solve larger-scale problems, earning the status of an ice sheet model. Here, we summarise almost 10 yr of development performed by different groups. Elmer/Ice solves the full-Stokes equations, for isotropic but also anisotropic ice rheology, resolves the grounding line dynamics as a contact problem, and contains various basal friction laws. Derived fields, like the age of the ice, the strain rate or stress, can also be computed. Elmer/Ice includes two recently proposed inverse methods to infer badly known parameters. Elmer is a highly parallelised code thanks to recent developments and the implementation of a block preconditioned solver for the Stokes system. In this paper, all these components are presented in detail, as well as the numerical performance of the Stokes solver and developments planned for the future.

The multi-millennial Antarctic commitment to future sea-level rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Golledge, N. R.; Kowalewski, D. E.; Naish, T. R.; Levy, R. H.; Fogwill, C. J.; Gasson, E. G. W.

2015-10-01

Atmospheric warming is projected to increase global mean surface temperatures by 0.3 to 4.8 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial values by the end of this century. If anthropogenic emissions continue unchecked, the warming increase may reach 8-10 degrees Celsius by 2300 (ref. 2). The contribution that large ice sheets will make to sea-level rise under such warming scenarios is difficult to quantify because the equilibrium-response timescale of ice sheets is longer than those of the atmosphere or ocean. Here we use a coupled ice-sheet/ice-shelf model to show that if atmospheric warming exceeds 1.5 to 2 degrees Celsius above present, collapse of the major Antarctic ice shelves triggers a centennial- to millennial-scale response of the Antarctic ice sheet in which enhanced viscous flow produces a long-term commitment (an unstoppable contribution) to sea-level rise. Our simulations represent the response of the present-day Antarctic ice-sheet system to the oceanic and climatic changes of four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) from the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. We find that substantial Antarctic ice loss can be prevented only by limiting greenhouse gas emissions to RCP 2.6 levels. Higher-emissions scenarios lead to ice loss from Antarctic that will raise sea level by 0.6-3 metres by the year 2300. Our results imply that greenhouse gas emissions in the next few decades will strongly influence the long-term contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet to global sea level.

The multi-millennial Antarctic commitment to future sea-level rise.

PubMed

Golledge, N R; Kowalewski, D E; Naish, T R; Levy, R H; Fogwill, C J; Gasson, E G W

2015-10-15

Atmospheric warming is projected to increase global mean surface temperatures by 0.3 to 4.8 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial values by the end of this century. If anthropogenic emissions continue unchecked, the warming increase may reach 8-10 degrees Celsius by 2300 (ref. 2). The contribution that large ice sheets will make to sea-level rise under such warming scenarios is difficult to quantify because the equilibrium-response timescale of ice sheets is longer than those of the atmosphere or ocean. Here we use a coupled ice-sheet/ice-shelf model to show that if atmospheric warming exceeds 1.5 to 2 degrees Celsius above present, collapse of the major Antarctic ice shelves triggers a centennial- to millennial-scale response of the Antarctic ice sheet in which enhanced viscous flow produces a long-term commitment (an unstoppable contribution) to sea-level rise. Our simulations represent the response of the present-day Antarctic ice-sheet system to the oceanic and climatic changes of four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) from the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. We find that substantial Antarctic ice loss can be prevented only by limiting greenhouse gas emissions to RCP 2.6 levels. Higher-emissions scenarios lead to ice loss from Antarctic that will raise sea level by 0.6-3 metres by the year 2300. Our results imply that greenhouse gas emissions in the next few decades will strongly influence the long-term contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet to global sea level.

Global sea-level change during the next 10,000 years: the end of an icehouse?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van Breedam, Jonas; Huybrechts, Philippe; Goelzer, Heiko; Loutre, Marie-France; Fichefet, Thierry

2015-04-01

Because of the long life-time of atmospheric CO2, any realized future warming is likely to persist for many centuries to millennia. As a consequence, sea-level rise will continue on a multi-millennial timescale, especially from the slower components such as oceanic thermal expansion and above all, from melting of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. The two polar ice sheets have the potential to produce a global eustatic sea-level rise of about 65 m, at least an order of magnitude larger than thermal expansion under extreme forcing scenarios. Other components contributing to sea-level change are the melting of glaciers and ice caps and haline contraction of the ocean from fresh water delivery from land ice, but are less important. We have made projections of future sea-level rise over the next 10,000 years with the Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity LOVECLIM, which includes high resolution models of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. Four different model parameter sets are considered to explore the model uncertainty. The climate forcing is based on prolonged Radiative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios with an assumed exponential falloff for carbon dioxide concentrations according to global carbon cycle simulations. Six different forcing scenarios are constructed where the highest scenario includes a positive feedback due to the destabilization of methane hydrates and the subsequent emission of methane. By far the largest contribution in the global sea-level projections arises from the polar ice sheets. For the Greenland ice sheet, the ablation is larger than the accumulation for all forcing scenarios shortly after the start of the experiments. The ice sheet continuously melts and nearly disappears in all cases. The Antarctic ice sheet grows during the first decades under low to intermediate forcing scenarios due to increased accumulation. However, the spread between the different scenarios is very large. Under the highest prolonged RCP scenario (and in case methane hydrate starts to destabilize), the model uncertainty does not exclude melting of the entire Antarctic ice sheet after 10,000 years. This would mark the end of the present icehouse, which has existed for about 34 Myr, and would raise global sea-level by up to 70 m from all contributions combined.

An ice sheet model validation framework for the Greenland ice sheet.

PubMed

Price, Stephen F; Hoffman, Matthew J; Bonin, Jennifer A; Howat, Ian M; Neumann, Thomas; Saba, Jack; Tezaur, Irina; Guerber, Jeffrey; Chambers, Don P; Evans, Katherine J; Kennedy, Joseph H; Lenaerts, Jan; Lipscomb, William H; Perego, Mauro; Salinger, Andrew G; Tuminaro, Raymond S; van den Broeke, Michiel R; Nowicki, Sophie M J

2017-01-01

We propose a new ice sheet model validation framework - the Cryospheric Model Comparison Tool (CmCt) - that takes advantage of ice sheet altimetry and gravimetry observations collected over the past several decades and is applied here to modeling of the Greenland ice sheet. We use realistic simulations performed with the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM) along with two idealized, non-dynamic models to demonstrate the framework and its use. Dynamic simulations with CISM are forced from 1991 to 2013 using combinations of reanalysis-based surface mass balance and observations of outlet glacier flux change. We propose and demonstrate qualitative and quantitative metrics for use in evaluating the different model simulations against the observations. We find that the altimetry observations used here are largely ambiguous in terms of their ability to distinguish one simulation from another. Based on basin- and whole-ice-sheet scale metrics, we find that simulations using both idealized conceptual models and dynamic, numerical models provide an equally reasonable representation of the ice sheet surface (mean elevation differences of <1 m). This is likely due to their short period of record, biases inherent to digital elevation models used for model initial conditions, and biases resulting from firn dynamics, which are not explicitly accounted for in the models or observations. On the other hand, we find that the gravimetry observations used here are able to unambiguously distinguish between simulations of varying complexity, and along with the CmCt, can provide a quantitative score for assessing a particular model and/or simulation. The new framework demonstrates that our proposed metrics can distinguish relatively better from relatively worse simulations and that dynamic ice sheet models, when appropriately initialized and forced with the right boundary conditions, demonstrate predictive skill with respect to observed dynamic changes occurring on Greenland over the past few decades. An extensible design will allow for continued use of the CmCt as future altimetry, gravimetry, and other remotely sensed data become available for use in ice sheet model validation.

Modelling West Antarctic ice sheet growth and collapse through the past five million years.

PubMed

Pollard, David; DeConto, Robert M

2009-03-19

The West Antarctic ice sheet (WAIS), with ice volume equivalent to approximately 5 m of sea level, has long been considered capable of past and future catastrophic collapse. Today, the ice sheet is fringed by vulnerable floating ice shelves that buttress the fast flow of inland ice streams. Grounding lines are several hundred metres below sea level and the bed deepens upstream, raising the prospect of runaway retreat. Projections of future WAIS behaviour have been hampered by limited understanding of past variations and their underlying forcing mechanisms. Its variation since the Last Glacial Maximum is best known, with grounding lines advancing to the continental-shelf edges around approximately 15 kyr ago before retreating to near-modern locations by approximately 3 kyr ago. Prior collapses during the warmth of the early Pliocene epoch and some Pleistocene interglacials have been suggested indirectly from records of sea level and deep-sea-core isotopes, and by the discovery of open-ocean diatoms in subglacial sediments. Until now, however, little direct evidence of such behaviour has been available. Here we use a combined ice sheet/ice shelf model capable of high-resolution nesting with a new treatment of grounding-line dynamics and ice-shelf buttressing to simulate Antarctic ice sheet variations over the past five million years. Modelled WAIS variations range from full glacial extents with grounding lines near the continental shelf break, intermediate states similar to modern, and brief but dramatic retreats, leaving only small, isolated ice caps on West Antarctic islands. Transitions between glacial, intermediate and collapsed states are relatively rapid, taking one to several thousand years. Our simulation is in good agreement with a new sediment record (ANDRILL AND-1B) recovered from the western Ross Sea, indicating a long-term trend from more frequently collapsed to more glaciated states, dominant 40-kyr cyclicity in the Pliocene, and major retreats at marine isotope stage 31 ( approximately 1.07 Myr ago) and other super-interglacials.

Ice Sheet and Sea Ice Observations from Unmanned Aircraft Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crocker, R. I.; Maslanik, J. A.

2011-12-01

A suite of sensors has been assembled to map ice sheet and sea ice surface topography with fine-resolution from small unmanned aircraft systems (UAS). This payload is optimized to provide coincident surface elevation and imagery data, and with its low cost and ease of reproduction, it has the potential to become a widely-distributed observational resource to complement polar manned-aircraft and satellite missions. To date, it has been deployed to map ice sheet elevations near Jakobshavn Isbræ in Greenland, and to measure sea ice freeboard and roughness in Fram Strait off the coast of Svalbard. Data collected during these campaigns have facilitate a detailed assessment of the system's surface elevation measurement accuracy, and provide a glimpse of the summer 2009 Fram Strait sea ice conditions. These findings are presented, along with a brief overview of our future Arctic UAS operations.

A Climate-Data Record (CDR) of the "Clear-Sky" Surface Temperature of the Greenland Ice Sheet

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hall, Dorothy K.; Comiso, Josefino C.; DiGirolamo, Nocolo E.; Shuman, Christopher A.

2011-01-01

We have developed a climate-data record (CDR) of "clear-sky" ice-surface temperature (IST) of the Greenland Ice Sheet using Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data. The CDR provides daily and monthly-mean IST from March 2000 through December 2010 on a polar stereographic projection at a resolution of 6.25 km. The CDR is amenable to extension into the future using Visible/Infrared Imager Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) data. Regional "clear-sky" surface temperature increases since the early 1980s in the Arctic, measured using Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) infrared data, range from 0.57 +/- 0.02 to 0.72 +/- 0.1 c per decade. Arctic warming has important implications for ice-sheet mass balance because much of the periphery of the Greenland Ice Sheet is already near O C during the melt season, and is thus vulnerable to rapid melting if temperatures continue to increase. An increase in melting of the ice sheet would accelerate sea-level rise, an issue affecting potentially billions of people worldwide. The IST CDR will provide a convenient data set for modelers and for climatologists to track changes of the surface temperature of the ice sheet as a whole and of the individual drainage basins on the ice sheet. The daily and monthly maps will provide information on surface melt as well as "clear-sky" temperature. The CDR will be further validated by comparing results with automatic-weather station data and with satellite-derived surface-temperature products.

Rapid Access Ice Drill: A New Tool for Exploration of the Deep Antarctic Ice Sheets and Subglacial Geology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goodge, J. W.; Severinghaus, J. P.

2014-12-01

The Rapid Access Ice Drill (RAID) will penetrate the Antarctic ice sheets in order to core through deep ice, the glacial bed, and into bedrock below. This new technology will provide a critical first look at the interface between major ice caps and their subglacial geology. Currently in construction, RAID is a mobile drilling system capable of making several long boreholes in a single field season in Antarctica. RAID is interdisciplinary and will allow access to polar paleoclimate records in ice >1 Ma, direct observation at the base of the ice sheets, and recovery of rock cores from the ice-covered East Antarctic craton. RAID uses a diamond rock-coring system as in mineral exploration. Threaded drill-pipe with hardened metal bits will cut through ice using reverse circulation of Estisol for pressure-compensation, maintenance of temperature, and removal of ice cuttings. Near the bottom of the ice sheet, a wireline bottom-hole assembly will enable diamond coring of ice, the glacial bed, and bedrock below. Once complete, boreholes will be kept open with fluid, capped, and made available for future down-hole measurement of thermal gradient, heat flow, ice chronology, and ice deformation. RAID will also sample for extremophile microorganisms. RAID is designed to penetrate up to 3,300 meters of ice and take sample cores in less than 200 hours. This rapid performance will allow completion of a borehole in about 10 days before moving to the next drilling site. RAID is unique because it can provide fast borehole access through thick ice; take short ice cores for paleoclimate study; sample the glacial bed to determine ice-flow conditions; take cores of subglacial bedrock for age dating and crustal history; and create boreholes for use as an observatory in the ice sheets. Together, the rapid drilling capability and mobility of the drilling system, along with ice-penetrating imaging methods, will provide a unique 3D picture of the interior Antarctic ice sheets.

Continuous, Pulsed Export of Methane-Supersaturated Meltwaters from the Bed of the Greenland Ice Sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lamarche-Gagnon, G.; Wadham, J.; Beaton, A.; Fietzek, P.; Stanley, K. M.; Tedstone, A.; Sherwood Lollar, B.; Lacrampe Couloume, G.; Telling, J.; Liz, B.; Hawkings, J.; Kohler, T. J.; Zarsky, J. D.; Stibal, M.; Mowlem, M. C.

2016-12-01

Both past and present ice sheets have been proposed to cap large quantities of methane (CH4), on orders of magnitude significant enough to impact global greenhouse gas concentrations during periods of rapid ice retreat. However, to date most evidence for sub-ice sheet methane has been indirect, derived from calculations of the methanogenic potential of basal-ice microbial communities and biogeochemical models; field-based empirical measurements are lacking from large ice sheet catchments. Here, we present the first continuous, in situ record of dissolved methane export from a large catchment of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) in South West Greenland from May-July 2015. Our results indicate that glacial runoff was continuously supersaturated with methane over the observation period (dissolved CH4 concentrations of 30-700 nM), with total methane flux rising as subglacial discharge increased. Periodic subglacial drainage events, characterised by rapid changes (i.e. pulses) in meltwater hydrochemistry, also coincided with a rise in methane concentrations. We argue that these are likely indicative of the flushing of subglacial reservoirs of CH4 beneath the ice sheet. Total methane export was relatively modest when compared to global methane budgets, but too high to be explained by previously determined methanogenic rates from Greenland basal ice. Discrepancies between estimated Greenland methane reserves and observed fluxes stress the need to further investigate GrIS methane fluxes and sources, and suggest a more biogeochemically active subglacial environment than previously considered. Results indicate that future warming, and a coincident increase in ice melt rates, would likely make the GrIS, and by extension the Antarctic Ice Sheet, more significant sources of atmospheric methane, consequently acting as a positive feedback to a warming climate.

Implementing an empirical scalar constitutive relation for ice with flow-induced polycrystalline anisotropy in large-scale ice sheet models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Graham, Felicity S.; Morlighem, Mathieu; Warner, Roland C.; Treverrow, Adam

2018-03-01

The microstructure of polycrystalline ice evolves under prolonged deformation, leading to anisotropic patterns of crystal orientations. The response of this material to applied stresses is not adequately described by the ice flow relation most commonly used in large-scale ice sheet models - the Glen flow relation. We present a preliminary assessment of the implementation in the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM) of a computationally efficient, empirical, scalar, constitutive relation which addresses the influence of the dynamically steady-state flow-compatible induced anisotropic crystal orientation patterns that develop when ice is subjected to the same stress regime for a prolonged period - sometimes termed tertiary flow. We call this the ESTAR flow relation. The effect on ice flow dynamics is investigated by comparing idealised simulations using ESTAR and Glen flow relations, where we include in the latter an overall flow enhancement factor. For an idealised embayed ice shelf, the Glen flow relation overestimates velocities by up to 17 % when using an enhancement factor equivalent to the maximum value prescribed in the ESTAR relation. Importantly, no single Glen enhancement factor can accurately capture the spatial variations in flow across the ice shelf generated by the ESTAR flow relation. For flow line studies of idealised grounded flow over varying topography or variable basal friction - both scenarios dominated at depth by bed-parallel shear - the differences between simulated velocities using ESTAR and Glen flow relations depend on the value of the enhancement factor used to calibrate the Glen flow relation. These results demonstrate the importance of describing the deformation of anisotropic ice in a physically realistic manner, and have implications for simulations of ice sheet evolution used to reconstruct paleo-ice sheet extent and predict future ice sheet contributions to sea level.

Investigation of Controls on Ice Dynamics in Northeast Greenland from Ice-Thickness Change Record Using Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Csatho, B. M.; Larour, E. Y.; Schenk, A. F.; Schlegel, N.; Duncan, K.

2015-12-01

We present a new, complete ice thickness change reconstruction of the NE sector of the Greenland Ice Sheet for 1978-2014, partitioned into changes due to surface processes and ice dynamics. Elevation changes are computed from all available stereoscopic DEMs, and laser altimetry data (ICESat, ATM, LVIS). Surface Mass Balance and firn-compaction estimates are from RACMO2.3. Originating nearly at the divide of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS), the dynamically active North East Ice Stream (NEGIS) is capable of rapidly transmitting ice-marginal forcing far inland. Thus, NEGIS provides a possible mechanism for a rapid drawdown of ice from the ice sheet interior as marginal warming, thinning and retreat continues. Our altimetry record shows accelerating dynamic thinning of Zachariæ Isstrom, initially limited to the deepest part of the fjord near the calving front (1978-2000) and then extending at least 75 km inland. At the same time, changes over the Nioghalvfjerdsfjorden (N79) Glacier are negligible. We also detect localized large dynamic changes at higher elevations on the ice sheet. These thickness changes, often occurring at the onset of fast flow, could indicate rapid variations of basal lubrication due to rerouting of subglacial drainage. We investigate the possible causes of the observed spatiotemporal pattern of ice sheet elevation changes using the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM). This work build on our previous studies examining the sensitivity of ice flow within the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream (NEGIS) to key fields, including ice viscosity, basal drag. We assimilate the new altimetry record into ISSM to improve the reconstruction of basal friction and ice viscosity. Finally, airborne geophysical (gravity, magnetic) and ice-penetrating radar data is examined to identify the potential geologic controls on the ice thickness change pattern. Our study provides the first comprehensive reconstruction of ice thickness changes for the entire NEGIS drainage basin during the last 40 years. Through the use of ISSM, we examine possible mechanism explaining the observed changes. The improved understanding gained through this research will contribute better projections of future ice loss from this most vulnerable region of the GrIS.

The East Antarctic Ice Sheet and the Gamburtsev Subglacial Mountains (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bell, R. E.; Studinger, M.; Ferraccioli, F.; Damaske, D.; Finn, C.; Braaten, D. A.; Fahnestock, M. A.; Jordan, T. A.; Corr, H.; Elieff, S.; Frearson, N.; Block, A. E.; Rose, K.

2009-12-01

Models of the onset of glaciation in Antarctica routinely document the early growth of the ice sheet on the summit of the Gamburtsev Subglacial Mountains in the center of the East Antarctic Craton. While ice sheet models replicate the formation of the East Antarctic ice sheet 35 million years ago, the age, evolution and structure of the Gamburtsev Mountains remain completely unresolved. During the International Polar Year scientists from seven nations have launched a major collaborative program (AGAP) to explore the Gamburtsev Subglacial Mountains buried by the East Antarctic ice sheet and bounded by numerous subglacial lakes. The AGAP umbrella is a multi-national, multi-disciplinary effort and includes aerogeophysics, passive seismology, traverse programs and will be complimented by future ice core and bedrock drilling. A major new airborne data set including gravity; magnetics; ice thickness; SAR images of the ice-bed interface; near-surface and deep internal layers; and ice surface elevation is providing insights into a more dynamic East Antarctica. More than 120,000 km of aerogeophysical data have been acquired from two remote field camps during the 2008/09 field season. AGAP effort was designed to address several fundamental questions including: 1) What role does topography play in the nucleation of continental ice sheets? 2) How do tectonic processes control the formation, distribution, and stability of subglacial lakes? The preliminary analysis of this major new data set indicated these 3000m high mountains are deeply dissected by a dendritic system. The northern margin of the mountain range terminates against the inland extent of the Lambert Graben. Evidence of the onset of glaciation is preserved as cirques and U shaped valleys along the axis of the uplifted massifs. The geomorphology reflects the interaction between the ice sheet and the Gamburtsev Mountains. Bright reflectors in the radar data in the deep valleys indicate the presence of water that has the potential to influence ice sheet flow. Crevassing and disrupted internal layers are present in the deep ice found in the inland extent of the Lambert Graben. Preliminary analysis indicates both a more dynamic East Antarctic ice sheet and a more complex tectonic evolution for East Antarctica.

The Sensitivity of the Greenland Ice Sheet to Glacial-Interglacial Oceanic Forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tabone, I.; Blasco Navarro, J.; Robinson, A.; Alvarez-Solas, J.; Montoya, M.

2017-12-01

Up to now, the scientific community has mainly focused on the sensitivity of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) to atmospheric variations. However, several studies suggest that the enhanced ice mass loss experienced by the GrIS in the past decades is directly connected to the increasing North Atlantic temperatures. Melting of GrIS outlet glaciers triggers grounding-line retreat increasing ice discharge into the ocean. This new evidence leads to consider the ocean as a relevant driver to be taken into account when modeling the evolution of the GrIS. The ice-ocean interaction is a primary factor controling not only the likely future retreat of GrIS outlet glaciers, or the huge ice loss in past warming climates, but also, and more strongly, the past GrIS glacial expansion. The latter assumption is supported by reconstructions which propose the GrIS to be fully marine-based during glacials, and thus more exposed to the influence of the ocean. Here, for the first time, we investigate the response of the GrIS to past oceanic changes using a three-dimensional hybrid ice-sheet/ice-shelf model, which combines the Shallow Ice Approximation (SIA) for slow grounded ice sheets and the Shallow Shelf Approximation (SSA) in ice shelves and ice streams. The model accounts for a time-dependent parametrisation of the marine basal melting rate, which is used to reproduce past oceanic variations. In this work simulations of the last two glacial cycles are performed. Our results show that the GrIS is very sensitive to the ocean-triggered submarine melting (freezing). Mild oceanic temperature variations lead to a rapid retreat (expansion) of the GrIS margins, which, inducing a dynamic adjustment of the grounded ice sheet, drive the evolution of the whole ice sheet. Our results strongly suggest the need to consider the ocean as an active forcing in paleo ice sheet models.

Surface-atmosphere decoupling limits accumulation at Summit, Greenland.

PubMed

Berkelhammer, Max; Noone, David C; Steen-Larsen, Hans Christian; Bailey, Adriana; Cox, Christopher J; O'Neill, Michael S; Schneider, David; Steffen, Konrad; White, James W C

2016-04-01

Despite rapid melting in the coastal regions of the Greenland Ice Sheet, a significant area (~40%) of the ice sheet rarely experiences surface melting. In these regions, the controls on annual accumulation are poorly constrained owing to surface conditions (for example, surface clouds, blowing snow, and surface inversions), which render moisture flux estimates from myriad approaches (that is, eddy covariance, remote sensing, and direct observations) highly uncertain. Accumulation is partially determined by the temperature dependence of saturation vapor pressure, which influences the maximum humidity of air parcels reaching the ice sheet interior. However, independent proxies for surface temperature and accumulation from ice cores show that the response of accumulation to temperature is variable and not generally consistent with a purely thermodynamic control. Using three years of stable water vapor isotope profiles from a high altitude site on the Greenland Ice Sheet, we show that as the boundary layer becomes increasingly stable, a decoupling between the ice sheet and atmosphere occurs. The limited interaction between the ice sheet surface and free tropospheric air reduces the capacity for surface condensation to achieve the rate set by the humidity of the air parcels reaching interior Greenland. The isolation of the surface also acts to recycle sublimated moisture by recondensing it onto fog particles, which returns the moisture back to the surface through gravitational settling. The observations highlight a unique mechanism by which ice sheet mass is conserved, which has implications for understanding both past and future changes in accumulation rate and the isotopic signal in ice cores from Greenland.

Spatiotemporal Variability of Meltwater Refreezing in Southwest Greenland Ice Sheet Firn

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rennermalm, A. K.; Hock, R.; Tedesco, M.; Corti, G.; Covi, F.; Miège, C.; Kingslake, J.; Leidman, S. Z.; Munsell, S.

2017-12-01

A substantial fraction of the summer meltwater formed on the surface of the Greenland ice sheet is retained in firn, while the remaining portion runs to the ocean through surface and subsurface channels. Refreezing of meltwater in firn can create impenetrable ice lenses, hence being a crucial process in the redistribution of surface runoff. To quantify the impact of refreezing on runoff and current and future Greenland surface mass balance, a three year National Science Foundation funded project titled "Refreezing in the firn of the Greenland ice sheet: Spatiotemporal variability and implications for ice sheet mass balance" started this past year. Here we present an overview of the project and some initial results from the first field season in May 2017 conducted in proximity of the DYE-2 site in the percolation zone of the Southwest Greenland ice sheet at elevations between 1963 and 2355 m a.s.l.. During this fieldwork two automatic weather stations were deployed, outfitted with surface energy balance sensors and 16 m long thermistor strings, over 300 km of ground penetrating radar data were collected, and five 20-26 m deep firn cores were extracted and analyzed for density and stratigraphy. Winter snow accumulation was measured along the radar tracks. Preliminary work on the firn-core data reveals increasing frequency and thickness of ice lenses at lower ice-sheet elevations, in agreement with other recent work in the area. Data collected within this project will facilitate advances in our understanding of the spatiotemporal variability of firn refreezing and its role in the hydrology and surface mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet.

Surface-atmosphere decoupling limits accumulation at Summit, Greenland

PubMed Central

Berkelhammer, Max; Noone, David C.; Steen-Larsen, Hans Christian; Bailey, Adriana; Cox, Christopher J.; O’Neill, Michael S.; Schneider, David; Steffen, Konrad; White, James W. C.

2016-01-01

Despite rapid melting in the coastal regions of the Greenland Ice Sheet, a significant area (~40%) of the ice sheet rarely experiences surface melting. In these regions, the controls on annual accumulation are poorly constrained owing to surface conditions (for example, surface clouds, blowing snow, and surface inversions), which render moisture flux estimates from myriad approaches (that is, eddy covariance, remote sensing, and direct observations) highly uncertain. Accumulation is partially determined by the temperature dependence of saturation vapor pressure, which influences the maximum humidity of air parcels reaching the ice sheet interior. However, independent proxies for surface temperature and accumulation from ice cores show that the response of accumulation to temperature is variable and not generally consistent with a purely thermodynamic control. Using three years of stable water vapor isotope profiles from a high altitude site on the Greenland Ice Sheet, we show that as the boundary layer becomes increasingly stable, a decoupling between the ice sheet and atmosphere occurs. The limited interaction between the ice sheet surface and free tropospheric air reduces the capacity for surface condensation to achieve the rate set by the humidity of the air parcels reaching interior Greenland. The isolation of the surface also acts to recycle sublimated moisture by recondensing it onto fog particles, which returns the moisture back to the surface through gravitational settling. The observations highlight a unique mechanism by which ice sheet mass is conserved, which has implications for understanding both past and future changes in accumulation rate and the isotopic signal in ice cores from Greenland. PMID:27386509

A middle Pleistocene through middle Miocene moraine sequence in the central Transantarctic Mountains, Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balter, A.; Bromley, G. R.; Balco, G.; Thomas, H.; Jackson, M. S.

2017-12-01

Ice-free areas at high elevation in the central Transantarctic Mountains preserve extensive moraine sequences and drift deposits that comprise a geologic record of former East Antarctic Ice Sheet thickness and extent. We are applying cosmogenic-nuclide exposure dating to determine the ages of these moraine sequences at Roberts Massif and Otway Massif, at the heads of the Shackleton and Beardmore Glaciers, respectively. Moraines at these sites are for the most part openwork boulder belts characteristic of deposition by cold-based ice, which is consistent with present climate and glaciological conditions. To develop our chronology, we collected samples from 30 distinct ice-marginal landforms and have so far measured >100 3He, 10Be, and 21Ne exposure ages. Apparent exposure ages range from 1-14 Ma, which shows that these landforms record glacial events between the middle Pleistocene and middle Miocene. These data show that the thickness of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet in this region was similar to or thicker than present for long periods between the middle Miocene and today. The time range represented by these moraine sequences indicates that they may also provide direct geologic evidence for East Antarctic Ice Sheet behavior during past periods of warmer-than-present climate, specifically the Miocene and Pliocene. As the East Antarctic Ice Sheet is the largest ice sheet on earth, understanding its sensitivity to warm-climate conditions is critical for projections of ice sheet behavior and sea-level rise in future warm climates.

Exploring the sensitivity of global ocean circulation to future ice loss from Antarctica

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Condron, Alan

The sensitivity of the global ocean circulation and climate to large increases in iceberg calving and meltwater discharges from the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) are rarely studied and poorly understood. The requirement to investigate this topic is heightened by growing evidence that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) is vulnerable to rapid retreat and collapse on multidecadal-to-centennial timescales. Observations collected over the last 30 years indicate that the WAIS is now losing mass at an accelerated and that a collapse may have already begun in the Amundsen Sea sector. In addition, some recent future model simulations of the AIS showmore » the potential for rapid ice sheet retreat in the next 50 – 300 years. Such a collapse would be associated with the discharge of enormous volumes of ice and meltwater to the Southern Ocean. This project funds PI Condron to begin assessing the sensitivity of the global ocean circulation to projected increases in meltwater discharge and iceberg calving from the AIS for the next 50 – 100 years. A series of climate model simulations will determine changes in ocean circulation and temperature at the ice sheet grounding line, the role of mesoscale ocean eddies in mixing and transporting freshwater away from the continent to deep water formation regions, and the likely impact on the northward transport of heat to Europe and North America.« less

Insights into Spatial Sensitivities of Ice Mass Response to Environmental Change from the SeaRISE Ice Sheet Modeling Project I: Antarctica

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nowicki, Sophie; Bindschadler, Robert A.; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Aschwanden, Andy; Bueler, Ed; Choi, Hyengu; Fastook, Jim; Granzow, Glen; Greve, Ralf; Gutowski, Gail;

Obliquity-paced Pliocene West Antarctic ice sheet oscillations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Naish, T.; Powell, R.; Levy, R.; Wilson, G.; Scherer, R.; Talarico, F.; Krissek, L.; Niessen, F.; Pompilio, M.; Wilson, T.; Carter, L.; DeConto, R.; Huybers, P.; McKay, R.; Pollard, D.; Ross, J.; Winter, D.; Barrett, P.; Browne, G.; Cody, R.; Cowan, E.; Crampton, J.; Dunbar, G.; Dunbar, N.; Florindo, F.; Gebhardt, C.; Graham, I.; Hannah, M.; Hansaraj, D.; Harwood, D.; Helling, D.; Henrys, S.; Hinnov, L.; Kuhn, G.; Kyle, P.; Laufer, A.; Maffioli, P.; Magens, D.; Mandernack, K.; McIntosh, W.; Millan, C.; Morin, R.; Ohneiser, C.; Paulsen, T.; Persico, D.; Raine, I.; Reed, J.; Riesselman, C.; Sagnotti, L.; Schmitt, D.; Sjunneskog, C.; Strong, P.; Taviani, M.; Vogel, S.; Wilch, T.; Williams, T.

2009-01-01

Thirty years after oxygen isotope records from microfossils deposited in ocean sediments confirmed the hypothesis that variations in the Earth's orbital geometry control the ice ages1, fundamental questions remain over the response of the Antarctic ice sheets to orbital cycles2. Furthermore, an understanding of the behaviour of the marine-based West Antarctic ice sheet (WAIS) during the 'warmer-than-present' early-Pliocene epoch (5–3 Myr ago) is needed to better constrain the possible range of ice-sheet behaviour in the context of future global warming3. Here we present a marine glacial record from the upper 600 m of the AND-1B sediment core recovered from beneath the northwest part of the Ross ice shelf by the ANDRILL programme and demonstrate well-dated, 40-kyr cyclic variations in ice-sheet extent linked to cycles in insolation influenced by changes in the Earth's axial tilt (obliquity) during the Pliocene. Our data provide direct evidence for orbitally induced oscillations in the WAIS, which periodically collapsed, resulting in a switch from grounded ice, or ice shelves, to open waters in the Ross embayment when planetary temperatures were up to 3 °C warmer than today4 and atmospheric CO2 concentration was as high as 400 p.p.m.v. (refs 5, 6). The evidence is consistent with a new ice-sheet/ice-shelf model7 that simulates fluctuations in Antarctic ice volume of up to +7 m in equivalent sea level associated with the loss of the WAIS and up to +3 m in equivalent sea level from the East Antarctic ice sheet, in response to ocean-induced melting paced by obliquity. During interglacial times, diatomaceous sediments indicate high surface-water productivity, minimal summer sea ice and air temperatures above freezing, suggesting an additional influence of surface melt8 under conditions of elevated CO2.

Obliquity-paced Pliocene West Antarctic ice sheet oscillations.

PubMed

Naish, T; Powell, R; Levy, R; Wilson, G; Scherer, R; Talarico, F; Krissek, L; Niessen, F; Pompilio, M; Wilson, T; Carter, L; DeConto, R; Huybers, P; McKay, R; Pollard, D; Ross, J; Winter, D; Barrett, P; Browne, G; Cody, R; Cowan, E; Crampton, J; Dunbar, G; Dunbar, N; Florindo, F; Gebhardt, C; Graham, I; Hannah, M; Hansaraj, D; Harwood, D; Helling, D; Henrys, S; Hinnov, L; Kuhn, G; Kyle, P; Läufer, A; Maffioli, P; Magens, D; Mandernack, K; McIntosh, W; Millan, C; Morin, R; Ohneiser, C; Paulsen, T; Persico, D; Raine, I; Reed, J; Riesselman, C; Sagnotti, L; Schmitt, D; Sjunneskog, C; Strong, P; Taviani, M; Vogel, S; Wilch, T; Williams, T

2009-03-19

Thirty years after oxygen isotope records from microfossils deposited in ocean sediments confirmed the hypothesis that variations in the Earth's orbital geometry control the ice ages, fundamental questions remain over the response of the Antarctic ice sheets to orbital cycles. Furthermore, an understanding of the behaviour of the marine-based West Antarctic ice sheet (WAIS) during the 'warmer-than-present' early-Pliocene epoch ( approximately 5-3 Myr ago) is needed to better constrain the possible range of ice-sheet behaviour in the context of future global warming. Here we present a marine glacial record from the upper 600 m of the AND-1B sediment core recovered from beneath the northwest part of the Ross ice shelf by the ANDRILL programme and demonstrate well-dated, approximately 40-kyr cyclic variations in ice-sheet extent linked to cycles in insolation influenced by changes in the Earth's axial tilt (obliquity) during the Pliocene. Our data provide direct evidence for orbitally induced oscillations in the WAIS, which periodically collapsed, resulting in a switch from grounded ice, or ice shelves, to open waters in the Ross embayment when planetary temperatures were up to approximately 3 degrees C warmer than today and atmospheric CO(2) concentration was as high as approximately 400 p.p.m.v. (refs 5, 6). The evidence is consistent with a new ice-sheet/ice-shelf model that simulates fluctuations in Antarctic ice volume of up to +7 m in equivalent sea level associated with the loss of the WAIS and up to +3 m in equivalent sea level from the East Antarctic ice sheet, in response to ocean-induced melting paced by obliquity. During interglacial times, diatomaceous sediments indicate high surface-water productivity, minimal summer sea ice and air temperatures above freezing, suggesting an additional influence of surface melt under conditions of elevated CO(2).

Modeling North American Ice Sheet Response to Changes in Precession and Obliquity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tabor, C.; Poulsen, C. J.; Pollard, D.

2012-12-01

Milankovitch theory proposes that changes in insolation due to orbital perturbations dictate the waxing and waning of the ice sheets (Hays et al., 1976). However, variations in solar forcing alone are insufficient to produce the glacial oscillations observed in the climate record. Non-linear feedbacks in the Earth system likely work in concert with the orbital cycles to produce a modified signal (e.g. Berger and Loutre, 1996), but the nature of these feedbacks remain poorly understood. To gain a better understand of the ice dynamics and climate feedbacks associated with changes in orbital configuration, we use a complex Earth system model consisting of the GENESIS GCM and land surface model (Pollard and Thompson, 1997), the Pennsylvania State University ice sheet model (Pollard and DeConto, 2009), and the BIOME vegetation model (Kaplan et al., 2001). We began this study by investigating ice sheet sensitivity to a range of commonly used ice sheet model parameters, including mass balance and albedo, to optimize simulations for Pleistocene orbital cycles. Our tests indicate that choice of mass balance and albedo parameterizations can lead to significant differences in ice sheet behavior and volume. For instance, use of an insolation-temperature mass balance scheme (van den Berg, 2008) allows for a larger ice sheet response to orbital changes than the commonly employed positive degree-day method. Inclusion of a large temperature dependent ice albedo, representing phenomena such as melt ponds and dirty ice, also enhances ice sheet sensitivity. Careful tuning of mass balance and albedo parameterizations can help alleviate the problem of insufficient ice sheet retreat during periods of high summer insolation (Horton and Poulsen, 2007) while still accurately replicating the modern climate. Using our optimized configuration, we conducted a series of experiments with idealized transient orbits in an asynchronous coupling scheme to investigate the influence of obliquity and precession on the Laurentide and Cordillera ice sheets of North America. Preliminary model results show that the ice sheet response to changes in obliquity are larger than for precession despite providing a smaller direct insolation variation in the Northern Hemisphere high latitudes. A combination of enhanced Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude temperature gradient and longer cycle duration allow for a larger ice sheet response to obliquity than would be expected from insolation forcing alone. Conversely, a shorter duration dampens the ice sheet response to precession. Nevertheless, the precession cycle does cause significant changes in ice volume, a feature not observed in the Early Pleistocene δ18O records (Raymo and Nisancioglu, 2003). Future work will examine the climate response to an idealized transient orbit that includes concurrent variations in obliquity, precession, and eccentricity.

Antarctic Ice Sheet Discharge Driven by Atmosphere-Ocean Feedbacks Across the Last Glacial Termination

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fogwill, C. J.; Turney, C. S.; Golledge, N. R.; Etheridge, D. M.; Rubino, M.; Thornton, D.; Baker, A.; Weber, M. E.; Woodward, J.; van Ommen, T. D.; Moy, A. D.; Davies, S. M.; Bird, M. I.; Winter, K.; Munksgaard, N.; Menviel, L.; Rootes, C.; Vohra, J.; Rivera, A.; Cooper, A.

2016-12-01

Reconstructing the dynamic response of the Antarctic ice sheets to warming during the Last Glacial Termination (LGT; 18,000-11,650 yrs ago) allows us to identify ice-climate feedbacks that could improve future projections1,2. Whilst the sequence of events during this period are reasonably well-known, relatively poor chronological control has precluded precise alignment of ice, atmospheric and marine records2, making it difficult to assess relationships between Antarctic ice-sheet dynamics, climate change and sea-level rise3-5. Here we present results from a highly-resolved `horizontal ice core'6,7 from the Weddell Sea Embayment, which records millennial-scale ice-sheet dynamics across this extensive sector of Antarctica. Counterintuitively, we find ice-sheet surface drawdown of 600 m across the Antarctic Cold Reversal (ACR; 14,600-12,700 yrs ago)5, with stabilisation during the subsequent millennia of atmospheric warming. Earth system and ice-sheet modelling highlights that this response was likely sustained by strong ocean-ice feedbacks4,8; however, the drivers remain uncertain. Given the coincidence of the ice-sheet changes recorded with marked shifts in atmospheric circulation9,10,11we suggest that millennial-scale Antarctic ice-sheet behaviour was initiated and sustained by global atmospheric teleconnections across the LGT. This has important ramifications ice-sheet stability under contemporary climate change, with changing atmospheric and oceanic circulation patterns. 1 Collins, M. et al. in Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. 2 Weber, M. E. et al. Nature 510, 134-138, (2014). 3 Weaver, A. J., et al., Science 299, 1709-1713, (2003). 4 Golledge, N. R. et al. Nat Commun 5, (2014). 5 Pedro, J. B. et al. Nature Geosci9. 51-55 (2015). 6 Turney, C. S. M. et al. Journal of Quaternary Science 28, 697-704 (2013). 7 Winter, K. et al. Geophys. Res. Lett.43. 5. 2019-2026 (2016). 8 Menviel, L., A. et al., Quaternary Science Reviews 30, 1155-1172 (2011). 9 Hogg, A. et al. Scientific Reports 6(2016). 10 Hughen, K. A., et al., Radiocarbon 46, 1161-1187 (2004). 11 Anderson, R. F. et al. Science 323, 1443-1448, doi:10.1126/science.1167441 (2009).

PRISM4: Pliocene Research, Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping mid Piacenzian paleoenvironmental reconstruction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dowsett, H. J.; Dolan, A. M.; Rowley, D. B.; Moucha, R.; Forte, A. M.; Mitrovica, J. X.; Pound, M. J.; Salzmann, U.; Robinson, M. M.; Chandler, M. A.; Foley, K.; Haywood, A.

2016-12-01

Past Intervals in Earth history provide unique windows into conditions much different than those observed today. We investigated the paleoenvironments of a past warm interval in the mid Piacenzian ( 3 million years ago). The PRISM4 reconstruction contains twelve internally consistent and integrated data sets representing our best synoptic understanding of surface temperature, vegetation, soils, lakes, ice sheets, topography, and bathymetry. Starting points in the generation of our Piacenzian reconstruction are basic geochemical, faunal, floral, soil, cryospheric, topographic, bathymetric, sedimentologic, and stratigraphic data. Marine and terrestral temperature estimates are based upon multiple proxies (including faunal, floral, geochemical, and biomarker analyses). The reconstruction of Piacenzian global vegetation is based on the integration of paleobotanical data and BIOME4 model outputs. Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets are derived from the previous PRISM3 and PLISMIP (Pliocene Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project) results, respectively. Paleogeography is based upon an initial ETOPO1 digital elevation model incorporating PRISM4 ice sheets, GIA, and adjustments due to mantle convection. Soils are determined through comparison of sedimentological and stratigraphic data with the BIOME reconstruction. Lakes are determined from stratigraphic and sedimentological data. Sea-level equivalent (+20 m) is estimated from the reduced volume of the PRISM4 ice sheets and is consistent with our PRISM4 paleogeography. While not an analog for future conditions, the PRISM4 conceptual reconstruction provides insights into processes that occurred in the past and can inform us about the future. We will discuss the use of these data as boundary conditions and verification for global climate model simulations of the Pliocene, aimed at improving our understanding of the climate system as we prepare for future changes.

The multi-millennial Antarctic commitment to future sea-level rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Golledge, Nicholas R.; Kowalewski, Douglas E.; Naish, Timothy R.; Levy, Richard H.; Fogwill, Christopher J.; Gasson, Edward G. W.

2016-04-01

Atmospheric warming is projected to increase global mean surface temperatures by 0.3 to 4.8 degrees Celsius above present values by the end of this century (Collins et al., 2013). If anthropogenic emissions continue unchecked, the warming increase may reach 8-10 degrees Celsius by 2300 (Rogelj et al., 2012). The contribution that large ice sheets will make to sea-level rise under such warming scenarios is difficult to quantify because the equilibrium-response timescale of ice sheets is longer than those of the atmosphere or ocean. Here we use a coupled ice-sheet/ice-shelf model to show that if atmospheric warming exceeds 1.5 to 2 degrees Celsius above present, collapse of the major Antarctic ice shelves triggers a centennial- to millennial-scale response of the Antarctic ice sheet in which enhanced viscous flow produces a long-term commitment (an unstoppable contribution) to sea-level rise. Our simulations represent the response of the present-day Antarctic ice-sheet system to the oceanic and climatic changes of four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) from the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Collins et al., 2013). We find that substantial Antarctic ice loss can be prevented only by limiting greenhouse gas emissions to RCP 2.6 levels. Higher-emissions scenarios lead to ice loss from Antarctic that will raise sea level by 0.6-3 metres by the year 2300. Our results imply that greenhouse gas emissions in the next few decades will strongly influence the long-term contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet to global sea level.

Substantial export of suspended sediment to the global oceans from glacial erosion in Greenland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Overeem, I.; Hudson, B. D.; Syvitski, J. P. M.; Mikkelsen, A. B.; Hasholt, B.; van den Broeke, M. R.; Noël, B. P. Y.; Morlighem, M.

2017-11-01

Limited measurements along Greenland's remote coastline hamper quantification of the sediment and associated nutrients draining the Greenland ice sheet, despite the potential influence of river-transported suspended sediment on phytoplankton blooms and carbon sequestration. Here we calibrate satellite imagery to estimate suspended sediment concentration for 160 proglacial rivers across Greenland. Combining these suspended sediment reconstructions with numerical calculations of meltwater runoff, we quantify the amount and spatial pattern of sediment export from the ice sheet. We find that, although runoff from Greenland represents only 1.1% of the Earth's freshwater flux, the Greenland ice sheet produces approximately 8% of the modern fluvial export of suspended sediment to the global ocean. Sediment loads are highly variable between rivers, consistent with observed differences in ice dynamics and thus with control by glacial erosion. Rivers that originate from deeply incised, fast-moving glacial tongues form distinct sediment-export hotspots: just 15% of Greenland's rivers transport 80% of the total sediment load of the ice sheet. We conclude that future acceleration of melt and ice sheet flow may increase sediment delivery from Greenland to its fjords and the nearby ocean.

Extensive Liquid Meltwater Storage in Firn Within the Greenland Ice Sheet

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Forster, Richard R.; Box, Jason E.; vandenBroeke, Michael R.; Miege, Clement; Burgess, Evan W.; vanAngelen, Jan H.; Lenaerts, Jan T. M.; Koenig, Lora S.; Paden, John; Lewis, Cameron;

Marine Isotope Stage 11 : The Role of Co2, Insolation and Antarctica Ice Sheet On This Interglacial

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raynaud, D.; Loutre, M. F.; Ritz, C.; Barnola, J.-M.; Berger, A.; Chappellaz, J.; Jouzel, J.; Lipenkov, V.; Petit, J.-R.; Vimeux, F.

The Marine Isotopic Stage 11 (MIS 11), around 400kyr BP ago, has been suggested as an analogue for a future climate under natural forcing because of the similar condi- tions of orbitally driven insolation during this interglacial period and the one covering the Holocene and the near future. There are many open questions about unusual MIS 11 climatic conditions (length of the interglacial, temperature, sea level, marine car- bonate system), as recorded in different marine and continental records. The Antarctic Vostok ice core provides the only atmospheric record extending back to MIS 11 and we use it to discuss the Antarctic temperature, the atmospheric CO2 concentration and the ice sheet stability in the central part of East Antarctica during this interglacial. The unique nature of the Vostok atmospheric record leads us to use the available Vos- tok data to drive climate and ice sheet models for MIS 11. A model of intermediate complexity (LLN-2D model) is used to investigate the sensitivity of the simulated MIS 11 deglaciation to the interplay between insolation and CO2. It is shown that the length of the simulated interglacial depends strongly on the phasing between these two climate forcings. We also investigate the response of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to changing climate through simulations performed with the LGGE 3-D ice sheet model. The results indicate that sea level stands during MIS 11 as high as 20 m. above present level, as suggested by different elevated marine terraces, cannot be explained, except by assuming that MIS 11 was very dry over Antarctica.

Collection and curation of IDPs in the stratosphere and below. Part 2: The Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Maurette, Michel; Hammer, C.; Harvey, R.; Immel, G.; Kurat, G.; Taylor, S.

1994-01-01

In a companion paper, Zolensky discusses interplanetary dust particles (IDP's) collected in the stratosphere. Here, we describe the recovery of much larger unmelted to partially melted IDP's from the Greenland and Antarctica ice sheet, and discuss problems arising in their collection and curation, as well as future prospects for tackling these problems.

Quantifying Uncertainty in the Greenland Surface Mass Balance Elevation Feedback

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Edwards, T.

2015-12-01

As the shape of the Greenland ice sheet responds to changes in surface mass balance (SMB) and dynamics, it affects the surface mass balance through the atmospheric lapse rate and by altering atmospheric circulation patterns. Positive degree day models include simplified representations of this feedback, but it is difficult to simulate with state-of-the-art models because it requires coupling of regional climate models with dynamical ice sheet models, which is technically challenging. This difficulty, along with the high computational expense of regional climate models, also drastically limits opportunities for exploring the impact of modelling uncertainties on sea level projections. We present a parameterisation of the SMB-elevation feedback in the MAR regional climate model that provides a far easier and quicker estimate than atmosphere-ice sheet model coupling, which can be used with any ice sheet model. This allows us to use ensembles of different parameter values and ice sheet models to assess the effect of uncertainty in the feedback and ice sheet model structure on future sea level projections. We take a Bayesian approach to uncertainty in the feedback parameterisation, scoring the results from multiple possible "SMB lapse rates" according to how well they reproduce a MAR simulation with altered ice sheet topography. We test the impact of the resulting parameterisation on sea level projections using five ice sheet models forced by MAR (in turned forced by two different global climate models) under the emissions scenario A1B. The estimated additional sea level contribution due to the SMB-elevation feedback is 4.3% at 2100 (95% credibility interval 1.8-6.9%), and 9.6% at 2200 (3.6-16.0%).

Evidence for the stability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet divide for 1.4 million years

PubMed Central

Hein, Andrew S.; Woodward, John; Marrero, Shasta M.; Dunning, Stuart A.; Steig, Eric J.; Freeman, Stewart P. H. T.; Stuart, Finlay M.; Winter, Kate; Westoby, Matthew J.; Sugden, David E.

2016-01-01

Past fluctuations of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) are of fundamental interest because of the possibility of WAIS collapse in the future and a consequent rise in global sea level. However, the configuration and stability of the ice sheet during past interglacial periods remains uncertain. Here we present geomorphological evidence and multiple cosmogenic nuclide data from the southern Ellsworth Mountains to suggest that the divide of the WAIS has fluctuated only modestly in location and thickness for at least the last 1.4 million years. Fluctuations during glacial–interglacial cycles appear superimposed on a long-term trajectory of ice-surface lowering relative to the mountains. This implies that as a minimum, a regional ice sheet centred on the Ellsworth-Whitmore uplands may have survived Pleistocene warm periods. If so, it constrains the WAIS contribution to global sea level rise during interglacials to about 3.3 m above present. PMID:26838462

An ice sheet model validation framework for the Greenland ice sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Price, Stephen F.; Hoffman, Matthew J.; Bonin, Jennifer A.; Howat, Ian M.; Neumann, Thomas; Saba, Jack; Tezaur, Irina; Guerber, Jeffrey; Chambers, Don P.; Evans, Katherine J.; Kennedy, Joseph H.; Lenaerts, Jan; Lipscomb, William H.; Perego, Mauro; Salinger, Andrew G.; Tuminaro, Raymond S.; van den Broeke, Michiel R.; Nowicki, Sophie M. J.

2017-01-01

We propose a new ice sheet model validation framework - the Cryospheric Model Comparison Tool (CmCt) - that takes advantage of ice sheet altimetry and gravimetry observations collected over the past several decades and is applied here to modeling of the Greenland ice sheet. We use realistic simulations performed with the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM) along with two idealized, non-dynamic models to demonstrate the framework and its use. Dynamic simulations with CISM are forced from 1991 to 2013, using combinations of reanalysis-based surface mass balance and observations of outlet glacier flux change. We propose and demonstrate qualitative and quantitative metrics for use in evaluating the different model simulations against the observations. We find that the altimetry observations used here are largely ambiguous in terms of their ability to distinguish one simulation from another. Based on basin-scale and whole-ice-sheet-scale metrics, we find that simulations using both idealized conceptual models and dynamic, numerical models provide an equally reasonable representation of the ice sheet surface (mean elevation differences of < 1 m). This is likely due to their short period of record, biases inherent to digital elevation models used for model initial conditions, and biases resulting from firn dynamics, which are not explicitly accounted for in the models or observations. On the other hand, we find that the gravimetry observations used here are able to unambiguously distinguish between simulations of varying complexity, and along with the CmCt, can provide a quantitative score for assessing a particular model and/or simulation. The new framework demonstrates that our proposed metrics can distinguish relatively better from relatively worse simulations and that dynamic ice sheet models, when appropriately initialized and forced with the right boundary conditions, demonstrate a predictive skill with respect to observed dynamic changes that have occurred on Greenland over the past few decades. An extensible design will allow for continued use of the CmCt as future altimetry, gravimetry, and other remotely sensed data become available for use in ice sheet model validation.

An ice sheet model validation framework for the Greenland ice sheet

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Price, Stephen F.; Hoffman, Matthew J.; Bonin, Jennifer A.

We propose a new ice sheet model validation framework the Cryospheric Model Comparison Tool (CMCT) that takes advantage of ice sheet altimetry and gravimetry observations collected over the past several decades and is applied here to modeling of the Greenland ice sheet. We use realistic simulations performed with the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM) along with two idealized, non-dynamic models to demonstrate the framework and its use. Dynamic simulations with CISM are forced from 1991 to 2013 using combinations of reanalysis-based surface mass balance and observations of outlet glacier flux change. We propose and demonstrate qualitative and quanti- tative metricsmore » for use in evaluating the different model simulations against the observations. We find 10 that the altimetry observations used here are largely ambiguous in terms of their ability to distinguish one simulation from another. Based on basin- and whole-ice-sheet scale metrics, the model initial condition as well as output from idealized and dynamic models all provide an equally reasonable representation of the ice sheet surface (mean elevation differences of <1 m). This is likely due to their short period of record, biases inherent to digital elevation models used for model initial conditions, and biases resulting from firn dynamics, which are not explicitly accounted for in the models or observations. On the other hand, we find that the gravimetry observations used here are able to unambiguously distinguish between simulations of varying complexity, and along with the CMCT, can provide a quantitative score for assessing a particular model and/or simulation. The new framework demonstrates that our proposed metrics can distinguish relatively better from relatively worse simulations and that dynamic ice sheet models, when appropriately initialized and forced with the right boundary conditions, demonstrate predictive skill with respect to observed dynamic changes occurring on Greenland over the past few decades. An extensible design will allow for continued use of the CMCT as future altimetry, gravimetry, and other remotely sensed data become available for use in ice sheet model validation.« less

An ice sheet model validation framework for the Greenland ice sheet

DOE PAGES

Price, Stephen F.; Hoffman, Matthew J.; Bonin, Jennifer A.; ...

2017-01-17

We propose a new ice sheet model validation framework the Cryospheric Model Comparison Tool (CMCT) that takes advantage of ice sheet altimetry and gravimetry observations collected over the past several decades and is applied here to modeling of the Greenland ice sheet. We use realistic simulations performed with the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM) along with two idealized, non-dynamic models to demonstrate the framework and its use. Dynamic simulations with CISM are forced from 1991 to 2013 using combinations of reanalysis-based surface mass balance and observations of outlet glacier flux change. We propose and demonstrate qualitative and quanti- tative metricsmore » for use in evaluating the different model simulations against the observations. We find 10 that the altimetry observations used here are largely ambiguous in terms of their ability to distinguish one simulation from another. Based on basin- and whole-ice-sheet scale metrics, the model initial condition as well as output from idealized and dynamic models all provide an equally reasonable representation of the ice sheet surface (mean elevation differences of <1 m). This is likely due to their short period of record, biases inherent to digital elevation models used for model initial conditions, and biases resulting from firn dynamics, which are not explicitly accounted for in the models or observations. On the other hand, we find that the gravimetry observations used here are able to unambiguously distinguish between simulations of varying complexity, and along with the CMCT, can provide a quantitative score for assessing a particular model and/or simulation. The new framework demonstrates that our proposed metrics can distinguish relatively better from relatively worse simulations and that dynamic ice sheet models, when appropriately initialized and forced with the right boundary conditions, demonstrate predictive skill with respect to observed dynamic changes occurring on Greenland over the past few decades. An extensible design will allow for continued use of the CMCT as future altimetry, gravimetry, and other remotely sensed data become available for use in ice sheet model validation.« less

An ice sheet model validation framework for the Greenland ice sheet

PubMed Central

Price, Stephen F.; Hoffman, Matthew J.; Bonin, Jennifer A.; Howat, Ian M.; Neumann, Thomas; Saba, Jack; Tezaur, Irina; Guerber, Jeffrey; Chambers, Don P.; Evans, Katherine J.; Kennedy, Joseph H.; Lenaerts, Jan; Lipscomb, William H.; Perego, Mauro; Salinger, Andrew G.; Tuminaro, Raymond S.; van den Broeke, Michiel R.; Nowicki, Sophie M. J.

2018-01-01

We propose a new ice sheet model validation framework – the Cryospheric Model Comparison Tool (CmCt) – that takes advantage of ice sheet altimetry and gravimetry observations collected over the past several decades and is applied here to modeling of the Greenland ice sheet. We use realistic simulations performed with the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM) along with two idealized, non-dynamic models to demonstrate the framework and its use. Dynamic simulations with CISM are forced from 1991 to 2013 using combinations of reanalysis-based surface mass balance and observations of outlet glacier flux change. We propose and demonstrate qualitative and quantitative metrics for use in evaluating the different model simulations against the observations. We find that the altimetry observations used here are largely ambiguous in terms of their ability to distinguish one simulation from another. Based on basin- and whole-ice-sheet scale metrics, we find that simulations using both idealized conceptual models and dynamic, numerical models provide an equally reasonable representation of the ice sheet surface (mean elevation differences of <1 m). This is likely due to their short period of record, biases inherent to digital elevation models used for model initial conditions, and biases resulting from firn dynamics, which are not explicitly accounted for in the models or observations. On the other hand, we find that the gravimetry observations used here are able to unambiguously distinguish between simulations of varying complexity, and along with the CmCt, can provide a quantitative score for assessing a particular model and/or simulation. The new framework demonstrates that our proposed metrics can distinguish relatively better from relatively worse simulations and that dynamic ice sheet models, when appropriately initialized and forced with the right boundary conditions, demonstrate predictive skill with respect to observed dynamic changes occurring on Greenland over the past few decades. An extensible design will allow for continued use of the CmCt as future altimetry, gravimetry, and other remotely sensed data become available for use in ice sheet model validation. PMID:29697704

An Ice Sheet Model Validation Framework for the Greenland Ice Sheet

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Price, Stephen F.; Hoffman, Matthew J.; Bonin, Jennifer A.; Howat, Ian M.; Neumann, Thomas A.; Saba, Jack; Tezaur, Irina; Guerber, Jeffrey R.; Chambers, Don P.; Evans, Katherine J.;

Uncertainty Quantification for Ice Sheet Science and Sea Level Projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boening, C.; Schlegel, N.; Limonadi, D.; Schodlok, M.; Seroussi, H. L.; Larour, E. Y.; Watkins, M. M.

2017-12-01

In order to better quantify uncertainties in global mean sea level rise projections and in particular upper bounds, we aim at systematically evaluating the contributions from ice sheets and potential for extreme sea level rise due to sudden ice mass loss. Here, we take advantage of established uncertainty quantification tools embedded within the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM) as well as sensitivities to ice/ocean interactions using melt rates and melt potential derived from MITgcm/ECCO2. With the use of these tools, we conduct Monte-Carlo style sampling experiments on forward simulations of the Antarctic ice sheet, by varying internal parameters and boundary conditions of the system over both extreme and credible worst-case ranges. Uncertainty bounds for climate forcing are informed by CMIP5 ensemble precipitation and ice melt estimates for year 2100, and uncertainty bounds for ocean melt rates are derived from a suite of regional sensitivity experiments using MITgcm. Resulting statistics allow us to assess how regional uncertainty in various parameters affect model estimates of century-scale sea level rise projections. The results inform efforts to a) isolate the processes and inputs that are most responsible for determining ice sheet contribution to sea level; b) redefine uncertainty brackets for century-scale projections; and c) provide a prioritized list of measurements, along with quantitative information on spatial and temporal resolution, required for reducing uncertainty in future sea level rise projections. Results indicate that ice sheet mass loss is dependent on the spatial resolution of key boundary conditions - such as bedrock topography and melt rates at the ice-ocean interface. This work is performed at and supported by the California Institute of Technology's Jet Propulsion Laboratory. Supercomputing time is also supported through a contract with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Cryosphere program.

High-resolution coupled ice sheet-ocean modeling using the POPSICLES model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ng, E. G.; Martin, D. F.; Asay-Davis, X.; Price, S. F.; Collins, W.

2014-12-01

It is expected that a primary driver of future change of the Antarctic ice sheet will be changes in submarine melting driven by incursions of warm ocean water into sub-ice shelf cavities. Correctly modeling this response on a continental scale will require high-resolution modeling of the coupled ice-ocean system. We describe the computational and modeling challenges in our simulations of the full Southern Ocean coupled to a continental-scale Antarctic ice sheet model at unprecedented spatial resolutions (0.1 degree for the ocean model and adaptive mesh refinement down to 500m in the ice sheet model). The POPSICLES model couples the POP2x ocean model, a modified version of the Parallel Ocean Program (Smith and Gent, 2002), with the BISICLES ice-sheet model (Cornford et al., 2012) using a synchronous offline-coupling scheme. Part of the PISCEES SciDAC project and built on the Chombo framework, BISICLES makes use of adaptive mesh refinement to fully resolve dynamically-important regions like grounding lines and employs a momentum balance similar to the vertically-integrated formulation of Schoof and Hindmarsh (2009). Results of BISICLES simulations have compared favorably to comparable simulations with a Stokes momentum balance in both idealized tests like MISMIP3D (Pattyn et al., 2013) and realistic configurations (Favier et al. 2014). POP2x includes sub-ice-shelf circulation using partial top cells (Losch, 2008) and boundary layer physics following Holland and Jenkins (1999), Jenkins (2001), and Jenkins et al. (2010). Standalone POP2x output compares well with standard ice-ocean test cases (e.g., ISOMIP; Losch, 2008) and other continental-scale simulations and melt-rate observations (Kimura et al., 2013; Rignot et al., 2013). For the POPSICLES Antarctic-Southern Ocean simulations, ice sheet and ocean models communicate at one-month coupling intervals.

Ice Flow in the North East Greenland Ice Stream

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Joughin, Ian; Kwok, Ron; Fahnestock, M.; MacAyeal, Doug

1999-01-01

Early observations with ERS-1 SAR image data revealed a large ice stream in North East Greenland (Fahnestock 1993). The ice stream has a number of the characteristics of the more closely studied ice streams in Antarctica, including its large size and gross geometry. The onset of rapid flow close to the ice divide and the evolution of its flow pattern, however, make this ice stream unique. These features can be seen in the balance velocities for the ice stream (Joughin 1997) and its outlets. The ice stream is identifiable for more than 700 km, making it much longer than any other flow feature in Greenland. Our research goals are to gain a greater understanding of the ice flow in the northeast Greenland ice stream and its outlet glaciers in order to assess their impact on the past, present, and future mass balance of the ice sheet. We will accomplish these goals using a combination of remotely sensed data and ice sheet models. We are using satellite radar interferometry data to produce a complete maps of velocity and topography over the entire ice stream. We are in the process of developing methods to use these data in conjunction with existing ice sheet models similar to those that have been used to improve understanding of the mechanics of flow in Antarctic ice streams.

Enhanced basal lubrication and the contribution of the Greenland ice sheet to future sea-level rise.

PubMed

Shannon, Sarah R; Payne, Antony J; Bartholomew, Ian D; van den Broeke, Michiel R; Edwards, Tamsin L; Fettweis, Xavier; Gagliardini, Olivier; Gillet-Chaulet, Fabien; Goelzer, Heiko; Hoffman, Matthew J; Huybrechts, Philippe; Mair, Douglas W F; Nienow, Peter W; Perego, Mauro; Price, Stephen F; Smeets, C J P Paul; Sole, Andrew J; van de Wal, Roderik S W; Zwinger, Thomas

2013-08-27

We assess the effect of enhanced basal sliding on the flow and mass budget of the Greenland ice sheet, using a newly developed parameterization of the relation between meltwater runoff and ice flow. A wide range of observations suggest that water generated by melt at the surface of the ice sheet reaches its bed by both fracture and drainage through moulins. Once at the bed, this water is likely to affect lubrication, although current observations are insufficient to determine whether changes in subglacial hydraulics will limit the potential for the speedup of flow. An uncertainty analysis based on our best-fit parameterization admits both possibilities: continuously increasing or bounded lubrication. We apply the parameterization to four higher-order ice-sheet models in a series of experiments forced by changes in both lubrication and surface mass budget and determine the additional mass loss brought about by lubrication in comparison with experiments forced only by changes in surface mass balance. We use forcing from a regional climate model, itself forced by output from the European Centre Hamburg Model (ECHAM5) global climate model run under scenario A1B. Although changes in lubrication generate widespread effects on the flow and form of the ice sheet, they do not affect substantial net mass loss; increase in the ice sheet's contribution to sea-level rise from basal lubrication is projected by all models to be no more than 5% of the contribution from surface mass budget forcing alone.

Constraining Future Sea Level Rise Estimates from the Amundsen Sea Embayment, West Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nias, I.; Cornford, S. L.; Edwards, T.; Gourmelen, N.; Payne, A. J.

2016-12-01

The Amundsen Sea Embayment (ASE) is the primary source of mass loss from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. The catchment is particularly susceptible to grounding line retreat, because the ice sheet is grounded on bedrock that is below sea level and deepening towards its interior. Mass loss from the ASE ice streams, which include Pine Island, Thwaites and Smith glaciers, is a major uncertainty on future sea level rise, and understanding the dynamics of these ice streams is essential to constraining this uncertainty. The aim of this study is to construct a distribution of future ASE sea level contributions from an ensemble of ice sheet model simulations and observations of surface elevation change. A 284 member ensemble was performed using BISICLES, a vertically-integrated ice flow model with adaptive mesh refinement. Within the ensemble parameters associated with basal traction, ice rheology and sub-shelf melt rate were perturbed, and the effect of bed topography and sliding law were also investigated. Initially each configuration was run to 50 model years. Satellite observations of surface height change were then used within a Bayesian framework to assign likelihoods to each ensemble member. Simulations that better reproduced the current thinning patterns across the catchment were given a higher score. The resulting posterior distribution of sea level contributions is narrower than the prior distribution, although the central estimates of sea level rise are similar between the prior and posterior. The most extreme simulations were eliminated and the remaining ensemble members were extended to 200 years, using a simple melt rate forcing.

Pleistocene reduction of polar ice caps: Evidence from Cariaco Basin marine sediments

USGS Publications Warehouse

Poore, R.Z.; Dowsett, H.J.

2001-01-01

Sea level is projected to rise between 13 and 94 cm over the next 100 yr due to continued climate warming. The sea-level projections assume that polar ice sheets will remain stable or even increase on time scales of centuries, but controversial geologic evidence suggests that current polar ice sheets have been eliminated or greatly reduced during previous Pleistocene interglacials indicating that modern polar ice sheets have become unstable within the natural range of interglacial climates. Sea level may have been more than 20 m higher than today during a presumably very warm interglacial about 400 ka during marine isotope stage 11. Because of the implications for future sea level rise, additional study of the conflicting evidence for warmer conditions and higher sea level during marine isotope stage 11 is needed. Here we present microfossil and isotopic data from marine sediments of the Cariaco Basin supporting the interpretation that global sea level was 10-20 m higher than today during marine isotope stage 11. The increased sea level requires reduction in modern polar ice sheets and is consistent with the interpretation that the West Antarctic ice sheet and the Greenland ice sheet were absent or greatly reduced during marine isotope stage 11. Our results show a warm marine isotope stage 11 interglacial climate with sea level as high as or above modern sea level that lasted for 25 to 30 k.y. Variations in Earth's orbit around the sun (Milankovitch cycles) are considered to be a primary external force driving glacial-interglacial cycles. Current and marine isotope stage 11 Milankovitch forcing are very similar, suggesting that the present interglacial (Holocene) that began ca. 10 ka will continue for another 15 to 20 k.y. Therefore any anthropogenic climate warming will accelerate the natural process toward reduction in polar ice sheets. The potential for increased rates of sea level rise related to polar ice sheet decay should be considered as a potential natural hazard on centennial time scales.

Summary of the SeaRISE Project's Experiments on Modeled Ice-Sheet Contributions to Future Sea Level: Linearities and Non-linearities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bindschadler, Robert

2013-04-01

The SeaRISE (Sea-level Response to Ice Sheet Evolution) project achieved ice-sheet model ensemble responses to a variety of prescribed changes to surface mass balance, basal sliding and ocean boundary melting. Greenland ice sheet models are more sensitive than Antarctic ice sheet models to likely atmospheric changes in surface mass balance, while Antarctic models are most sensitive to basal melting of its ice shelves. An experiment approximating the IPCC's RCP8.5 scenario produces first century contributions to sea level of 22.3 and 7.3 cm from Greenland and Antarctica, respectively, with a range among models of 62 and 17 cm, respectively. By 200 years, these projections increase to 53.2 and 23.4 cm, respectively, with ranges of 79 and 57 cm. The considerable range among models was not only in the magnitude of ice lost, but also in the spatial pattern of response to identical forcing. Despite this variation, the response of any single model to a large range in the forcing intensity was remarkably linear in most cases. Additionally, the results of sensitivity experiments to single types of forcing (i.e., only one of the surface mass balance, or basal sliding, or ocean boundary melting) could be summed to accurately predict any model's result for an experiment when multiple forcings were applied simultaneously. This suggests a limited amount of feedback through the ice sheet's internal dynamics between these types of forcing over the time scale of a few centuries (SeaRISE experiments lasted 500 years).

Disentangling the Roles of Atmospheric and Oceanic Forcing on the Last Deglaciation of the Greenland Ice Sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keisling, B. A.; Deconto, R. M.

2017-12-01

Today the Greenland Ice Sheet loses mass via both oceanic and atmospheric processes. However, the relative importance of these mass balance components is debated, especially their potential impact on ongoing and future mass imbalance. Discerning the impact of oceanic versus atmospheric forcing during past periods of mass loss provides potential insight into the future behavior of the ice sheet. Here we present an ensemble of Greenland Ice Sheet simulations of the last deglaciation, designed to assess separately the roles of the ocean and the atmosphere in driving mass loss over the last twenty thousand years. We use twenty-eight different ocean forcing scenarios along with a cutting-edge reconstruction of time-evolving atmospheric conditions based on climate model output and δ15N-based temperature reconstructions to generate a range of ice-sheet responses during the deglaciation. We then compare the simulated timing of ice-retreat in individual catchments with estimates based on both 10Be (exposure) and 14C (minimum-limiting) dates. These experiments allow us to identify the ocean forcing scenario that best match the data on a local-to-regional (i.e., 100-1000 km) scales, providing an assessment of the relative importance of ocean and atmospheric forcing components around the periphery of Greenland. We use these simulations to quantify the importance of the three major mass balance terms (calving, oceanic melting, and surface melting) and assess the uncertainty of the relative influence of these factors during the most recent periods of major ice loss. Our results show that mass balance components around different sectors of the ice sheet respond differently to forcing, with oceanic components driving the majority of retreat in south and east Greenland and atmospheric forcing dominating in west and north Greenland In addition, we target three areas at high spatial resolution ( 1 km) around Greenland currently undergoing substantial change (Jakobshavn, Petermann, and Nioghalvfjerdsfjord/Zakariae) to directly compare simulated deglacial retreat rates with those implied by submarine and subaerial moraine systems.

Tracking millennial-scale Holocene glacial advance and retreat using osmium isotopes: Insights from the Greenland ice sheet

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rooney, Alan D.; Selby, David; Llyod, Jeremy M.; Roberts, David H.; Luckge, Andreas; Sageman, Bradley B.; Prouty, Nancy G.

2016-01-01

High-resolution Os isotope stratigraphy can aid in reconstructing Pleistocene ice sheet fluctuation and elucidating the role of local and regional weathering fluxes on the marine Os residence time. This paper presents new Os isotope data from ocean cores adjacent to the West Greenland ice sheet that have excellent chronological controls. Cores MSM-520 and DA00-06 represent distal to proximal sites adjacent to two West Greenland ice streams. Core MSM-520 has a steadily decreasing Os signal over the last 10 kyr (187Os/188Os = 1.35–0.81). In contrast, Os isotopes from core DA00-06 (proximal to the calving front of Jakobshavn Isbræ) highlight four stages of ice stream retreat and advance over the past 10 kyr (187Os/188Os = 2.31; 1.68; 2.09; 1.47). Our high-resolution chemostratigraphic records provide vital benchmarks for ice-sheet modelers as we attempt to better constrain the future response of major ice sheets to climate change. Variations in Os isotope composition from sediment and macro-algae (seaweed) sourced from regional and global settings serve to emphasize the overwhelming effect weathering sources have on seawater Os isotope composition. Further, these findings demonstrate that the residence time of Os is shorter than previous estimates of ∼104 yr.

Evidence of marine ice-cliff instability in Pine Island Bay from iceberg-keel plough marks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wise, Matthew G.; Dowdeswell, Julian A.; Jakobsson, Martin; Larter, Robert D.

2017-10-01

Marine ice-cliff instability (MICI) processes could accelerate future retreat of the Antarctic Ice Sheet if ice shelves that buttress grounding lines more than 800 metres below sea level are lost. The present-day grounding zones of the Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers in West Antarctica need to retreat only short distances before they reach extensive retrograde slopes. When grounding zones of glaciers retreat onto such slopes, theoretical considerations and modelling results indicate that the retreat becomes unstable (marine ice-sheet instability) and thus accelerates. It is thought that MICI is triggered when this retreat produces ice cliffs above the water line with heights approaching about 90 metres. However, observational evidence confirming the action of MICI has not previously been reported. Here we present observational evidence that rapid deglacial ice-sheet retreat into Pine Island Bay proceeded in a similar manner to that simulated in a recent modelling study, driven by MICI. Iceberg-keel plough marks on the sea-floor provide geological evidence of past and present iceberg morphology, keel depth and drift direction. From the planform shape and cross-sectional morphologies of iceberg-keel plough marks, we find that iceberg calving during the most recent deglaciation was not characterized by small numbers of large, tabular icebergs as is observed today, which would produce wide, flat-based plough marks or toothcomb-like multi-keeled plough marks. Instead, it was characterized by large numbers of smaller icebergs with V-shaped keels. Geological evidence of the form and water-depth distribution of the plough marks indicates calving-margin thicknesses equivalent to the threshold that is predicted to trigger ice-cliff structural collapse as a result of MICI. We infer rapid and sustained ice-sheet retreat driven by MICI, commencing around 12,300 years ago and terminating before about 11,200 years ago, which produced large numbers of icebergs smaller than the typical tabular icebergs produced today. Our findings demonstrate the effective operation of MICI in the past, and highlight its potential contribution to accelerated future retreat of the Antarctic Ice Sheet.

Applications of Future NASA Decadal Missions for Observing Earth's Land and Water Processes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Luvall, Jeffrey C.; Hook, Simon; Brown, Molly E.; Tzortziou, Maria A.; Carroll, Mark; Escobar, Vanessa M.; Omar, Ali

2013-01-01

Misson Objective: To collect altimetry data of the Earth's surface optimized to measure ice sheet elevation change and sea ice thickness, while also generating an estimate of global vegetation biomass.

Glacial changes in warm pool climate dominated by shelf exposure and ice sheet albedo

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Di Nezio, P. N.; Tierney, J. E.; Otto-Bliesner, B. L.; Timmermann, A.; Bhattacharya, T.; Brady, E. C.; Rosenbloom, N. A.

2017-12-01

The mechanisms driving glacial-interglacial changes in the climate of the Indo-Pacific warm pool (IPWP) are unclear. We addressed this issue combining model simulations and paleoclimate reconstructions of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Two drivers - the exposure of tropical shelves due to lower sea level and a monsoonal response to ice sheet albedo - explain the proxy-inferred patterns of hydroclimate change. Shelf exposure influences IPWP climate by weakening the ascending branch of the Walker circulation. This response is amplified by coupled interactions akin to the Bjerknes feedback involving a stronger sea-surface temperature (SST) gradient along the equatorial Indian Ocean (IO). Ice sheet albedo enhances the import of cold, dry air into the tropics, weakening the Afro-Asian monsoon system. This "ventilation" mechanism alters temperature contrasts between the Arabian Sea and surrounding land leading to further monsoon weakening. Additional simulations show that the altered SST patterns associated with these responses are essential for explaining the proxy-inferred changes. Together our results show that ice sheets are a first order driver of tropical climate on glacial-interglacial timescales. While glacial climates are not a straightforward analogue for the future, our finding of an active Bjerknes feedback deserves further attention in the context of future climate projections.

Toward Surface Mass Balance Modeling over Antarctic Peninsula with Improved Snow/Ice Physics within WRF

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Villamil-Otero, G.; Zhang, J.; Yao, Y.

2017-12-01

The Antarctic Peninsula (AP) has long been the focus of climate change studies due to its rapid environmental changes such as significantly increased glacier melt and retreat, and ice-shelf break-up. Progress has been continuously made in the use of regional modeling to simulate surface mass changes over ice sheets. Most efforts, however, focus on the ice sheets of Greenland with considerable fewer studies in Antarctica. In this study the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, which has been applied to the Antarctic region for weather modeling, is adopted to capture the past and future surface mass balance changes over AP. In order to enhance the capabilities of WRF model simulating surface mass balance over the ice surface, we implement various ice and snow processes within the WRF and develop a new WRF suite (WRF-Ice). The WRF-Ice includes a thermodynamic ice sheet model that improves the representation of internal melting and refreezing processes and the thermodynamic effects over ice sheet. WRF-Ice also couples a thermodynamic sea ice model to improve the simulation of surface temperature and fluxes over sea ice. Lastly, complex snow processes are also taken into consideration including the implementation of a snowdrift model that takes into account the redistribution of blowing snow as well as the thermodynamic impact of drifting snow sublimation on the lower atmospheric boundary layer. Intensive testing of these ice and snow processes are performed to assess the capability of WRF-Ice in simulating the surface mass balance changes over AP.

Sea level change: lessons from the geologic record

USGS Publications Warehouse

,

1995-01-01

Rising sea level is potentially one of the most serious impacts of climatic change. Even a small sea level rise would have serious economic consequences because it would cause extensive damage to the world's coastal regions. Sea level can rise in the future because the ocean surface can expand due to warming and because polar ice sheets and mountain glaciers can melt, increasing the ocean's volume of water. Today, ice caps on Antarctica and Greenland contain 91 and 8 percent of the world's ice, respectively. The world's mountain glaciers together contain only about 1 percent. Melting all this ice would raise sea level about 80 meters. Although this extreme scenario is not expected, geologists know that sea level can rise and fall rapidly due to changing volume of ice on continents. For example, during the last ice age, about 18,000 years ago, continental ice sheets contained more than double the modem volume of ice. As ice sheets melted, sea level rose 2 to 3 meters per century, and possibly faster during certain times. During periods in which global climate was very warm, polar ice was reduced and sea level was higher than today.

Abrupt Shift in the Observed Runoff from the Southwest Greenland Ice Sheet?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahlstrom, A.; Petersen, D.; Box, J.; Langen, P. P.; Citterio, M.

2016-12-01

Mass loss of the Greenland ice sheet has contributed significantly to sea level rise in recent years and is considered a crucial parameter when estimating the impact of future climate change. Few observational records of sufficient length exist to validate surface mass balance models, especially the estimated runoff. Here we present an observation time series from 1975-2014 of discharge from a large proglacial lake, Tasersiaq, in West Greenland (66.3°N, 50.4°W) with a mainly ice-covered catchment. We argue that the discharge time series is representative measure of ice sheet runoff, making it the only observational record of runoff to exceed the 30-year period needed to assess the climatological state of the ice sheet. We proceed to isolate the runoff part of the signal from precipitation and identified glacial lake outburst floods from a small sub-catchment. Similarly, the impact from major volcanic eruptions is clearly identified. We examine the trend and annual variability in the annual discharge, relating it to likely atmospheric forcing mechanisms and compare the observational time series with modelled runoff from the regional climate model HIRHAM.

Application of GRACE to the assessment of model-based estimates of monthly Greenland Ice Sheet mass balance (2003-2012)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schlegel, Nicole-Jeanne; Wiese, David N.; Larour, Eric Y.; Watkins, Michael M.; Box, Jason E.; Fettweis, Xavier; van den Broeke, Michiel R.

2016-09-01

Quantifying the Greenland Ice Sheet's future contribution to sea level rise is a challenging task that requires accurate estimates of ice sheet sensitivity to climate change. Forward ice sheet models are promising tools for estimating future ice sheet behavior, yet confidence is low because evaluation of historical simulations is challenging due to the scarcity of continental-wide data for model evaluation. Recent advancements in processing of Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) data using Bayesian-constrained mass concentration ("mascon") functions have led to improvements in spatial resolution and noise reduction of monthly global gravity fields. Specifically, the Jet Propulsion Laboratory's JPL RL05M GRACE mascon solution (GRACE_JPL) offers an opportunity for the assessment of model-based estimates of ice sheet mass balance (MB) at ˜ 300 km spatial scales. Here, we quantify the differences between Greenland monthly observed MB (GRACE_JPL) and that estimated by state-of-the-art, high-resolution models, with respect to GRACE_JPL and model uncertainties. To simulate the years 2003-2012, we force the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM) with anomalies from three different surface mass balance (SMB) products derived from regional climate models. Resulting MB is compared against GRACE_JPL within individual mascons. Overall, we find agreement in the northeast and southwest where MB is assumed to be primarily controlled by SMB. In the interior, we find a discrepancy in trend, which we presume to be related to millennial-scale dynamic thickening not considered by our model. In the northwest, seasonal amplitudes agree, but modeled mass trends are muted relative to GRACE_JPL. Here, discrepancies are likely controlled by temporal variability in ice discharge and other related processes not represented by our model simulations, i.e., hydrological processes and ice-ocean interaction. In the southeast, GRACE_JPL exhibits larger seasonal amplitude than predicted by the models while simultaneously having more pronounced trends; thus, discrepancies are likely controlled by a combination of missing processes and errors in both the SMB products and ISSM. At the margins, we find evidence of consistent intra-annual variations in regional MB that deviate distinctively from the SMB annual cycle. Ultimately, these monthly-scale variations, likely associated with hydrology or ice-ocean interaction, contribute to steeper negative mass trends observed by GRACE_JPL. Thus, models should consider such processes at relatively high (monthly-to-seasonal) temporal resolutions to achieve accurate estimates of Greenland MB.

Greenland Ice Sheet seasonal and spatial mass variability from model simulations and GRACE (2003-2012)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alexander, Patrick M.; Tedesco, Marco; Schlegel, Nicole-Jeanne; Luthcke, Scott B.; Fettweis, Xavier; Larour, Eric

2016-06-01

Improving the ability of regional climate models (RCMs) and ice sheet models (ISMs) to simulate spatiotemporal variations in the mass of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) is crucial for prediction of future sea level rise. While several studies have examined recent trends in GrIS mass loss, studies focusing on mass variations at sub-annual and sub-basin-wide scales are still lacking. At these scales, processes responsible for mass change are less well understood and modeled, and could potentially play an important role in future GrIS mass change. Here, we examine spatiotemporal variations in mass over the GrIS derived from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites for the January 2003-December 2012 period using a "mascon" approach, with a nominal spatial resolution of 100 km, and a temporal resolution of 10 days. We compare GRACE-estimated mass variations against those simulated by the Modèle Atmosphérique Régionale (MAR) RCM and the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM). In order to properly compare spatial and temporal variations in GrIS mass from GRACE with model outputs, we find it necessary to spatially and temporally filter model results to reproduce leakage of mass inherent in the GRACE solution. Both modeled and satellite-derived results point to a decline (of -178.9 ± 4.4 and -239.4 ± 7.7 Gt yr-1 respectively) in GrIS mass over the period examined, but the models appear to underestimate the rate of mass loss, especially in areas below 2000 m in elevation, where the majority of recent GrIS mass loss is occurring. On an ice-sheet-wide scale, the timing of the modeled seasonal cycle of cumulative mass (driven by summer mass loss) agrees with the GRACE-derived seasonal cycle, within limits of uncertainty from the GRACE solution. However, on sub-ice-sheet-wide scales, some areas exhibit significant differences in the timing of peaks in the annual cycle of mass change. At these scales, model biases, or processes not accounted for by models related to ice dynamics or hydrology, may lead to the observed differences. This highlights the need for further evaluation of modeled processes at regional and seasonal scales, and further study of ice sheet processes not accounted for, such as the role of subglacial hydrology in variations in glacial flow.

Early Holocene hydroclimate of Baffin Bay: Understanding the interplay between abrupt climate change events and ice sheet fluctuations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Corcoran, M. C.; Thomas, E. K.; Castañeda, I. S.; Briner, J. P.

2017-12-01

Understanding the causes of ice sheet fluctuations resulting in sea level rise is essential in today's warming climate. In high-latitude ice-sheet-proximal environments such as Baffin Bay, studying both the cause and the rate of ice sheet variability during past abrupt climate change events aids in predictions. Past climate reconstructions are used to understand ice sheet responses to changes in temperature and precipitation. The 9,300 and 8,200 yr BP events are examples of abrupt climate change events in the Baffin Bay region during which there were multiple re-advances of the Greenland and Laurentide ice sheets. High-resolution (decadal-scale) hydroclimate variability near the ice sheet margins during these abrupt climate change events is still unknown. We will generate a decadal-scale record of early Holocene temperature and precipitation using leaf wax hydrogen isotopes, δ2Hwax, from a lake sediment archive on Baffin Island, western Baffin Bay, to better understand abrupt climate change in this region. Shifts in temperature and moisture source result in changes in environmental water δ2H, which in turn is reflected in δ2Hwax, allowing for past hydroclimate to be determined from these compound-specific isotopes. The combination of terrestrial and aquatic δ2Hwax is used to determine soil evaporation and is ultimately used to reconstruct moisture variability. We will compare our results with a previous analysis of δ2Hwax and branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers, a temperature and pH proxy, in lake sediment from western Greenland, eastern Baffin Bay, which indicates that cool and dry climate occurred in response to freshwater forcing events in the Labrador Sea. Reconstructing and comparing records on both the western and eastern sides of Baffin Bay during the early Holocene will allow for a spatial understanding of temperature and moisture balance changes during abrupt climate events, aiding in ice sheet modeling and predictions of future sea level rise.

Modelling the climate and surface mass balance of polar ice sheets using RACMO2 - Part 1: Greenland (1958-2016)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Noël, Brice; van de Berg, Willem Jan; Melchior van Wessem, J.; van Meijgaard, Erik; van As, Dirk; Lenaerts, Jan T. M.; Lhermitte, Stef; Kuipers Munneke, Peter; Smeets, C. J. P. Paul; van Ulft, Lambertus H.; van de Wal, Roderik S. W.; van den Broeke, Michiel R.

2018-03-01

We evaluate modelled Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) near-surface climate, surface energy balance (SEB) and surface mass balance (SMB) from the updated regional climate model RACMO2 (1958-2016). The new model version, referred to as RACMO2.3p2, incorporates updated glacier outlines, topography and ice albedo fields. Parameters in the cloud scheme governing the conversion of cloud condensate into precipitation have been tuned to correct inland snowfall underestimation: snow properties are modified to reduce drifting snow and melt production in the ice sheet percolation zone. The ice albedo prescribed in the updated model is lower at the ice sheet margins, increasing ice melt locally. RACMO2.3p2 shows good agreement compared to in situ meteorological data and point SEB/SMB measurements, and better resolves the spatial patterns and temporal variability of SMB compared with the previous model version, notably in the north-east, south-east and along the K-transect in south-western Greenland. This new model version provides updated, high-resolution gridded fields of the GrIS present-day climate and SMB, and will be used for projections of the GrIS climate and SMB in response to a future climate scenario in a forthcoming study.

A Bayesian Retrieval of Greenland Ice Sheet Internal Temperature from Ultra-wideband Software-defined Microwave Radiometer (UWBRAD) Measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duan, Y.; Durand, M. T.; Jezek, K. C.; Yardim, C.; Bringer, A.; Aksoy, M.; Johnson, J. T.

2017-12-01

The ultra-wideband software-defined microwave radiometer (UWBRAD) is designed to provide ice sheet internal temperature product via measuring low frequency microwave emission. Twelve channels ranging from 0.5 to 2.0 GHz are covered by the instrument. A Greenland air-borne demonstration was demonstrated in September 2016, provided first demonstration of Ultra-wideband radiometer observations of geophysical scenes, including ice sheets. Another flight is planned for September 2017 for acquiring measurements in central ice sheet. A Bayesian framework is designed to retrieve the ice sheet internal temperature from simulated UWBRAD brightness temperature (Tb) measurements over Greenland flight path with limited prior information of the ground. A 1-D heat-flow model, the Robin Model, was used to model the ice sheet internal temperature profile with ground information. Synthetic UWBRAD Tb observations was generated via the partially coherent radiation transfer model, which utilizes the Robin model temperature profile and an exponential fit of ice density from Borehole measurement as input, and corrupted with noise. The effective surface temperature, geothermal heat flux, the variance of upper layer ice density, and the variance of fine scale density variation at deeper ice sheet were treated as unknown variables within the retrieval framework. Each parameter is defined with its possible range and set to be uniformly distributed. The Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach is applied to make the unknown parameters randomly walk in the parameter space. We investigate whether the variables can be improved over priors using the MCMC approach and contribute to the temperature retrieval theoretically. UWBRAD measurements near camp century from 2016 was also treated with the MCMC to examine the framework with scattering effect. The fine scale density fluctuation is an important parameter. It is the most sensitive yet highly unknown parameter in the estimation framework. Including the fine scale density fluctuation greatly improved the retrieval results. The ice sheet vertical temperature profile, especially the 10m temperature, can be well retrieved via the MCMC process. Future retrieval work will apply the Bayesian approach to UWBRAD airborne measurements.

On the Application of Science Systems Engineering and Uncertainty Quantification for Ice Sheet Science and Sea Level Projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schlegel, Nicole-Jeanne; Boening, Carmen; Larour, Eric; Limonadi, Daniel; Schodlok, Michael; Seroussi, Helene; Watkins, Michael

2017-04-01

Research and development activities at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) currently support the creation of a framework to formally evaluate the observational needs within earth system science. One of the pilot projects of this effort aims to quantify uncertainties in global mean sea level rise projections, due to contributions from the continental ice sheets. Here, we take advantage of established uncertainty quantification tools embedded within the JPL-University of California at Irvine Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM). We conduct sensitivity and Monte-Carlo style sampling experiments on forward simulations of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. By varying internal parameters and boundary conditions of the system over both extreme and credible worst-case ranges, we assess the impact of the different parameter ranges on century-scale sea level rise projections. The results inform efforts to a) isolate the processes and inputs that are most responsible for determining ice sheet contribution to sea level; b) redefine uncertainty brackets for century-scale projections; and c) provide a prioritized list of measurements, along with quantitative information on spatial and temporal resolution, required for reducing uncertainty in future sea level rise projections. Results indicate that ice sheet mass loss is dependent on the spatial resolution of key boundary conditions - such as bedrock topography and melt rates at the ice-ocean interface. This work is performed at and supported by the California Institute of Technology's Jet Propulsion Laboratory. Supercomputing time is also supported through a contract with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Cryosphere program.

Stochastic modelling of basal temperatures in divide regions of the Antarctic ice sheet over the last 1.5 million years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van Liefferinge, Brice; Pattyn, Frank; Cavitte, Marie G. P.; Young, Duncan A.; Roberts, Jason L.

2017-04-01

The quest for oldest ice in Antarctica has recently been launched through an EU H2020 project (Beyond EPICA - Oldest Ice) and aims at identifying suitable areas for a potential future drilling. Retrieving an ice core of such age is essential to understand the relation between orbital changes and atmospheric composition during the mid-Pliocene transition. However, sites for a potential undisturbed record of 1.5 million-year old ice in Antarctica are difficult to find and require slow-moving ice (preferably an ice divide) and basal conditions that are not disturbed by large topographic variations. Furthermore, ice should be sufficiently thick but cold basal conditions should still prevail, since basal melting would destroy the bottom layers. Therefore, ice-flow conditions and thermodynamic characteristics are crucial for identifying potential locations of undisturbed ice. Van Liefferinge and Pattyn (2013) identified suitable areas based on a pan-Antarctic simplified thermodynamic ice sheet model and demonstrated that uncertainty in geothermal conditions remain a major unknown. In order to refine these estimates, and provide uncertainties, we employ a full thermo-mechanically coupled higher-order ice sheet model (Pattyn, 2003; Pattyn et al., 2004). Initial conditions for the calculations are based on an inversion of basal slipperiness, based on observed surface topography (Pollard and DeConto, 2012; Pattyn, in prep.). Uncertainties in geothermal conditions are introduced using the convolution of two Gaussian probability density functions: (a) the reconstruction of the Antarctic ice sheet geometry and testing ice thickness variability over the last 2 million years (Pollard and DeConto, 2009) and (b) the surface temperature reconstruction over the same period (Snyder et al., 2016). The standard deviation, the skewness and the kurtosis of the whole Antarctic ice sheet are analyzed to observe likely probable melt conditions. Finally, we focus on model results in the divide area between Dome Concordia and Dome Fuji, and compare to newly acquired radar data in the region (OIA survey).

Too Warm, Two Poles: Super Interglacial Teleconnections and Possible Dual Pole Ice Sheet Stability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brigham-Grette, J.; Deconto, R. M.; Roychowdhury, R.; de Wet, G.; Keisling, B. A.; Melles, M.; Minyuk, P.

2017-12-01

Geologic records of the warm Pliocene and Pleistocene super interglacials from both the Arctic and the Antarctic show us that ice sheets are more vulnerable to subtle polar warming than once thought. The continuous 3.6 million-year old sediment record from Lake El'gygytgyn (Lake E), the largest, deepest unglaciated Arctic lake located in central Chukotka, Russia, contains evidence of the warm forested Pliocene and the transition to changing glacial/interglacial climate cycles including at least 9 super interglacials and numerous other strong interglacials. Most of these super interglacials especially MIS 11 and 31, record conditions warmer than MIS 5e and many occur when global cycles are dominated by apparent 41ka forcing during the transition from the warm Pliocene to stronger G/IG variability. Given community consensus on the reduction of the Greenland Ice sheet (GIS) during MIS5e, we suggest that previous interglacials likely forced even larger reductions in the GIS, perhaps consistent with cosmogenic isotope exposure histories. We can best match MIS 11 and 31 from the Antarctic ANDRILL records when diatomaceous ooze deposition in the past recovered from under the modern Ross Ice Shelf suggests collapse of the WAIS and open water conditions. It is possible that a large number of the other Lake E super interglacials correspond to other intervals of WAIS collapse, within the uncertainly of the ANDRILL chronology. The forcing of super interglacials was not necessarily the result of high atmospheric CO2 but the result of preconditioning during periods of extremely low eccentricity and high obliquity. The challenge is now to incorporate oceanographic models (as suggested in Melles et al. 2012) to gauge ice sheet and ocean circulation sensitivity and timescales to preconditioning. Yet confirmation of past warming driving frequent ice sheet collapse in both hemispheres is clear geologically-based evidence that informs our future. Today, anthropogenic CO2 emissions are driving warming and accelerating ice sheet failure. Given that sea level rise projected into the future is global and not reversible, paleoclimate science should help drive social and political action aimed at short-term fixes and long-term "managed retreat" of human infrastructure from our coastlines.

ICESat's First Year of Measurements Over the Polar Ice Sheets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shuman, C. A.

2004-05-01

NASA's Ice, Cloud and Land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) mission was developed to measure changes in elevation of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. Its primary mission goal is to significantly refine estimates of polar ice sheet mass balance. Obtaining precise, spatially dense, ice sheet elevations through time is the first step towards this goal. ICESat data will then enable study of associations between observed ice changes and dynamic or climatic forcing factors, and thus enable improved estimation of the present and future contributions of the ice sheets to global sea level rise. ICESat was launched on January 12, 2003 and acquired science data from February 20th to March 29th with the first of the three lasers of the Geoscience Laser Altimeter System (GLAS). Data acquisition with the second laser began on September 25th and continued until November 18th, 2003. For one-year change detection, the second laser is scheduled for operation from approximately February 17th to March 20th, 2004. Additional operational periods will be selected to 1) enable periodic measurements through the year, and 2) to support of other NASA Earth Science Enterprise missions and activities. To obtain these precise ice sheet elevations, GLAS has a 1064 nm wavelength laser operating at 40 Hz with a designed range precision of about 10 cm. The laser footprints are about 70 m in diameter on the Earth's surface and are spaced every 172 m along-track. The on-board GPS receiver enables radial orbit determinations to an accuracy better than 5 cm. The star-tracking attitude-determination system will enable laser footprints to be located to 6 m horizontally when attitude calibration is completed. The orbital altitude averages 600 km at an inclination of 94 degrees with coverage extending from 86 degrees N and S latitude. The spacecraft attitude can be controlled to point the laser beam to within 50 m of surface reference tracks over the ice sheets and to point off-nadir up to 5 degrees to targets of interest. ICESat was designed to operate for 3 to 5 years but laser lifetime is uncertain and may not achieve this goal based on a detailed review following the failure of Laser 1. However, the results from the first full year of ICESat operations demonstrate that the GLAS instrument can measure ice sheet elevations with unprecedented accuracy. This presentation will show ice sheet results using crossover and exact repeat track analyses. Additional data using the remaining lasers will further demonstrate the capability to measure ice sheet elevation changes and improve mass balance assessments of the great polar ice sheets.

The last forests in Greenland, and the age of the ice sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Funder, Svend; Schmidt, Astrid M. Z.; Dahl-Jensen, Dorthe; Steffensen, Jørgen Peder; Willerslev, Eske

2014-05-01

Recently ancient DNA (aDNA) studies of the basal ice in the Camp Century ice core, northern Greenland, have shown that mixed coniferous-deciduous forest grew here before the area was invaded and permanently covered by the ice sheet. The coring site is situated only 100 km from the present ice margin and more than 500 km from the ice divide, indicating that since this last inception the northern part of the ice sheet never receded more than 100 km from its present margin. Dating of the basal ice and obtaining an age for the forest and for the beginning of the ice sheet's permanency has been attempted by analyzing for optically stimulated luminescence (OSL), meteoric 10Be/36Cl cosmogenic nuclides, 234U/238U recoil. These methods all provide only minimum ages and show that the forest at Cap Century is older than 500 ka. Comparison with other Pleistocene "forest sites" in Greenland - the Kap København Formation in northernmost Greenland, the DYE-3 ice core in the south, the ODP boring 646 south of Greenland, as well as results from basal ice in the GRIP ice core - extends the minimum age to c. 1 ma. The maximum age is provided by the Kap København Formation, which must be older - or contemporaneous. The formation has recently been confirmed to date within the interval 2-2.5 ma, with a preferred age of 2.3-2.4 ma. Surprisingly, application of the molecular clock of insect COI sequences on the Camp Century aDNA now seem to push the minimum age just as far back - to 2.4 ma, suggesting that the timberline boreal forest at Kap København is contemporaneous with the mixed forest at Camp Century, 600 km to the south. From this we conclude that the northern ice sheet dome, which today contains 85% of the total ice sheet volume, has remained within 100 km of its present margin for at least 1 ma, and possibly may go back as far as 2.4 ma. The ice sheet has therefore survived both interglacials and "super interglacials" that were both warmer and longer than the present. This may give us some hope for the future.

Modelling the climate and ice sheets of the mid-Pliocene warm period: a test of model dependency

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dolan, Aisling; Haywood, Alan; Lunt, Daniel; Hill, Daniel

2010-05-01

The mid-Pliocene warm period (MPWP; c. 3.0 - 3.3 million years ago) has been the subject of a large number of published studies during the last decade. It is an interval in Earth history, where conditions were similar to those predicted by climate models for the end of the 21st Century. Not only is it important to increase our understanding of the climate dynamics in a warmer world, it is also important to determine exactly how well numerical models can retrodict a climate significantly different from the present day, in order to have confidence in them for predicting the future climate. Previous General Circulation Model (GCM) simulations have indicated that MPWP mean annual surface temperatures were on average 2 to 3˚C warmer than the pre-industrial era. Coastal stratigraphy and benthic oxygen isotope records suggest that terrestrial ice volumes were reduced when compared to modern. Ice sheet modelling studies have supported this decrease in cryospheric extent. Generally speaking, both climate and ice sheet modelling studies have only used results from one numerical model when simulating the climate of the MPWP. However, recent projects such as PMIP (the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project) have emphasised the need to explore the dependency of past climate predictions on the specific climate model which is used. Here we present a comparison of MPWP climatologies produced by three atmosphere only GCMs from the Goddard Institute of Space Studies (GISS), the National Centre for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research (GCMAM3, CAM3-CLM and HadAM3 respectively). We focus on the ability of the GCMs to simulate climate fields needed to drive an offline ice sheet model to assess whether there are any significant differences between the climatologies. By taking the different temperature and precipitation predictions simulated by the three models as a forcing, and adopting GCM-specific topography, we have used the British Antarctic Survey thermomechanically coupled ice sheet model (BASISM) to test the extent to which equilibrium state ice sheets in the Northern Hemisphere are GCM dependent. Initial results which do not use GCM-specific topography suggest that employing different GCM climatologies with only small differences in surface air temperature and precipitation has a dramatic effect on the resultant Greenland ice sheet, where the end-member ice sheets vary from near modern to almost zero ice volume. As an extension of this analysis, we will also present results using a second ice sheet model (Glimmer), with a view to testing the degree to which end-member ice sheets are ice sheet model dependent, something which has not previously been addressed. Initially, BASISM and Glimmer will be internally optimised for performance, but we will also present a comparison where BASISM will be configured to the Glimmer model setup in a further test of ice sheet model dependency.

Enhanced basal lubrication and the contribution of the Greenland ice sheet to future sea-level rise

PubMed Central

Shannon, Sarah R.; Payne, Antony J.; Bartholomew, Ian D.; van den Broeke, Michiel R.; Edwards, Tamsin L.; Fettweis, Xavier; Gagliardini, Olivier; Gillet-Chaulet, Fabien; Goelzer, Heiko; Hoffman, Matthew J.; Huybrechts, Philippe; Mair, Douglas W. F.; Nienow, Peter W.; Perego, Mauro; Price, Stephen F.; Smeets, C. J. P. Paul; Sole, Andrew J.; van de Wal, Roderik S. W.; Zwinger, Thomas

2013-01-01

We assess the effect of enhanced basal sliding on the flow and mass budget of the Greenland ice sheet, using a newly developed parameterization of the relation between meltwater runoff and ice flow. A wide range of observations suggest that water generated by melt at the surface of the ice sheet reaches its bed by both fracture and drainage through moulins. Once at the bed, this water is likely to affect lubrication, although current observations are insufficient to determine whether changes in subglacial hydraulics will limit the potential for the speedup of flow. An uncertainty analysis based on our best-fit parameterization admits both possibilities: continuously increasing or bounded lubrication. We apply the parameterization to four higher-order ice-sheet models in a series of experiments forced by changes in both lubrication and surface mass budget and determine the additional mass loss brought about by lubrication in comparison with experiments forced only by changes in surface mass balance. We use forcing from a regional climate model, itself forced by output from the European Centre Hamburg Model (ECHAM5) global climate model run under scenario A1B. Although changes in lubrication generate widespread effects on the flow and form of the ice sheet, they do not affect substantial net mass loss; increase in the ice sheet’s contribution to sea-level rise from basal lubrication is projected by all models to be no more than 5% of the contribution from surface mass budget forcing alone. PMID:23940337

Recent Changes in Arctic Glaciers, Ice Caps, and the Greenland Ice Sheet: Cold Facts About Warm Ice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abdalati, W.

2005-12-01

One of the major manifestations of Arctic change can be observed in the state of balance of Arctic glaciers and ice caps and the Greenland ice sheet. These ice masses are estimated to contain nearly 3 million cubic kilometers of ice, which is more than six times greater than all the water stored in the Earth's lakes, rivers, and snow combined and is the equivalent of over 7 meters of sea level. Most of these ice masses have been shrinking in recent in years, but their mass balance is highly variable on a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. On the Greenland ice sheet most of the coastal regions have thinned substantially as melt has increased and some of its outlet glaciers have accelerated. Near the equilibrium line in West Greenland, we have seen evidence of summer acceleration that is linked to surface meltwater production, suggesting a relatively rapid response mechanism of the ice sheet change to a warming climate. At the same time, however, the vast interior regions of the Greenland ice sheet have shown little change or slight growth, as accumulation in these areas may have increased. Throughout much of the rest of the Arctic, many glaciers and ice caps have been shrinking in the past few decades, and in Canada and Alaska, the rate of ice loss seems to have accelerated during the late 1990s. These recent observations offer only a snapshot in time of the long-term behavior, but they are providing crucial information about the current state of ice mass balance and the mechanisms that control it in one of the most climatically sensitive regions on Earth. As we continue to learn more through a combination of remote sensing observations, in situ measurements and improved modeling capabilities, it is important that we coordinate and integrate these approaches effectively in order to predict future changes and their impact on sea level, freshwater discharge, and ocean circulation.

Middle to late Holocene fluctuations of the Vindue glacier, an outlet glacier of the Greenland Ice Sheet, central East Greenland.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Levy, L.; Hammer, S. K.; Kelly, M. A.; Lowell, T. V.; Hall, B. L.; Howley, J. A.; Wilcox, P.; Medford, A.

2014-12-01

The margins of the Greenland Ice Sheet are currently responding to present-day climate changes. Determining how the ice sheet margins have responded to past climate changes provides a means to understand how they may respond in the future. Here we present a multi-proxy record used to reconstruct the Holocene fluctuations of the Vindue glacier, an ice sheet outlet glacier in eastern Greenland. Lake sediment cores from Qiviut lake (informal name), located ~0.75 km from the present-day Vindue glacier margin contain a sharp transition from medium sand/coarse silt to laminated gyttja just prior to 6,340±130 cal yr BP. We interpret this transition to indicate a time when the Vindue glacier retreated sufficiently to cease glacial sedimentation into the lake basin. Above this contact the core contains laminated gyttja with prominent, ~0.5 cm thick, silt layers. 10Be ages of boulders on bedrock located between Qiviut lake and the present-day ice margin date to 6.81 ± 0.67 ka (n = 3), indicating the time of deglaciation. These ages also agree well with the radiocarbon age of the silt-gyttja transition in Qiviut lake cores. 10Be ages on boulders on bedrock located more proximal to the ice margin (~0.5 km) yield ages of 2.67 ± 0.18 ka (n = 2). These ages indicate either the continued recession of the ice margin during the late Holocene or an advance at this time. Boulders on the historical moraines show that ice retreated from the moraine by AD 1620 ± 20 yrs (n = 2). These results are in contrast with some areas of the western margin of the ice sheet where 10Be ages indicate that the ice sheet was behind its Historical limit from the middle Holocene (~6-7 ka) to Historical time. This may indicate that the eastern margin may have responded to late Holocene cooling more sensitively or that the advance associated with the Historical moraines overran any evidence of late Holocene fluctuations along the western margin of the ice sheet.

Ice Sheet System Model as Educational Entertainment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perez, G.

2013-12-01

Understanding the importance of polar ice sheets and their role in the evolution of Sea Level Rise (SLR), as well as Climate Change, is of paramount importance for policy makers as well as the public and schools at large. For example, polar ice sheets and glaciers currently account for 1/3 of the SLR signal, a ratio that will increase in the near to long-term future, which has tremendous societal ramifications. Consequently, it is important to increase awareness about our changing planet. In our increasingly digital society, mobile and web applications are burgeoning venues for such outreach. The Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM) is a software that was developed at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory/CalTech/NASA, in collaboration with University of California Irvine (UCI), with the goal of better understanding the evolution of polar ice sheets. It is a state-of-the-art framework, which relies on higher-end cluster-computing to address some of the aforementioned challenges. In addition, it is a flexible framework that can be deployed on any hardware; in particular, on mobile platforms such as Android or iOS smart phones. Here, we look at how the ISSM development team managed to port their model to these platforms, what the implications are for improving how scientists disseminate their results, and how a broader audience may familiarize themselves with running complex climate models in simplified scenarios which are highly educational and entertaining in content. We also look at the future plans toward a web portal fully integrated with mobile technologies to deliver the best content to the public, and to provide educational plans/lessons that can be used in grades K-12 as well as collegiate under-graduate and graduate programs.

Advances in Measuring Antarctic Sea-Ice Thickness and Ice-Sheet Elevations with ICESat Laser Altimetry

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zwally, H. Jay

2004-01-01

NASA's Ice, Cloud and Land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) has been measuring elevations of the Antarctic ice sheet and sea-ice freeboard elevations with unprecedented accuracy. Since February 20,2003, data has been acquired during three periods of laser operation varying from 36 to 54 days, which is less than the continuous operation of 3 to 5 years planned for the mission. The primary purpose of ICESat is to measure time-series of ice-sheet elevation changes for determination of the present-day mass balance of the ice sheets, study of associations between observed ice changes and polar climate, and estimation of the present and future contributions of the ice sheets to global sea level rise. ICESat data will continue to be acquired for approximately 33 days periods at 3 to 6 month intervals with the second of ICESat's three lasers, and eventually with the third laser. The laser footprints are about 70 m on the surface and are spaced at 172 m along-track. The on-board GPS receiver enables radial orbit determinations to an accuracy better than 5 cm. The orbital altitude is around 600 km at an inclination of 94 degrees with a 8-day repeat pattern for the calibration and validation period, followed by a 91 -day repeat period for the rest of the mission. The expected range precision of single footprint measurements was 10 cm, but the actual range precision of the data has been shown to be much better at 2 to 3 cm. The star-tracking attitude-determination system should enable footprints to be located to 6 m horizontally when attitude calibrations are completed. With the present attitude calibration, the elevation accuracy over the ice sheets ranges from about 30 cm over the low-slope areas to about 80 cm over areas with slopes of 1 to 2 degrees, which is much better than radar altimetry. After the first period of data collection, the spacecraft attitude was controlled to point the laser beam to within 50 m of reference surface tracks over the ice sheets. Detection of ice elevation changes over select areas of the ice sheet is demonstrated with using both crossover analysis and precise-repeat track analysis. Sea ice freeboard-height distributions over the Antarctic sea pack are derived over distances of 50 km and converted into maps of average freeboard thickness and sea-ice thickness.

Pan–ice-sheet glacier terminus change in East Antarctica reveals sensitivity of Wilkes Land to sea-ice changes

PubMed Central

Miles, Bertie W. J.; Stokes, Chris R.; Jamieson, Stewart S. R.

2016-01-01

The dynamics of ocean-terminating outlet glaciers are an important component of ice-sheet mass balance. Using satellite imagery for the past 40 years, we compile an approximately decadal record of outlet-glacier terminus position change around the entire East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) marine margin. We find that most outlet glaciers retreated during the period 1974–1990, before switching to advance in every drainage basin during the two most recent periods, 1990–2000 and 2000–2012. The only exception to this trend was in Wilkes Land, where the majority of glaciers (74%) retreated between 2000 and 2012. We hypothesize that this anomalous retreat is linked to a reduction in sea ice and associated impacts on ocean stratification, which increases the incursion of warm deep water toward glacier termini. Because Wilkes Land overlies a large marine basin, it raises the possibility of a future sea level contribution from this sector of East Antarctica. PMID:27386519

Pan-ice-sheet glacier terminus change in East Antarctica reveals sensitivity of Wilkes Land to sea-ice changes.

PubMed

Miles, Bertie W J; Stokes, Chris R; Jamieson, Stewart S R

2016-05-01

The dynamics of ocean-terminating outlet glaciers are an important component of ice-sheet mass balance. Using satellite imagery for the past 40 years, we compile an approximately decadal record of outlet-glacier terminus position change around the entire East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) marine margin. We find that most outlet glaciers retreated during the period 1974-1990, before switching to advance in every drainage basin during the two most recent periods, 1990-2000 and 2000-2012. The only exception to this trend was in Wilkes Land, where the majority of glaciers (74%) retreated between 2000 and 2012. We hypothesize that this anomalous retreat is linked to a reduction in sea ice and associated impacts on ocean stratification, which increases the incursion of warm deep water toward glacier termini. Because Wilkes Land overlies a large marine basin, it raises the possibility of a future sea level contribution from this sector of East Antarctica.

Modeling of Greenland outlet glaciers response to future climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beckmann, J.

2017-12-01

Over the past two decades net mass loss from the Greenland ice sheet (GIS) quadrupled, resulting in 25% of the global mean sea level (GMSL) rise. Increased mass loss of the GIS is caused by enhanced surface melting and speedup of the marine-terminating outlet glaciers. This speedup has been related, among other factors, to enhanced submarine melting, which in turn is caused by warming of the surrounding ocean and by increased subglacial, meltwater discharge. Yet, ice-ocean processes are not properly represented in contemporary Greenland Ice Sheet models used to project future changes in the GIS. In this work, we performed numerical experiments with a one-dimensional plume model coupled to a one-dimensional (depth- and width- integrated) ice flow model for several representative outlet glaciers in Greenland. We investigate the dynamic response of the coupled ice-flow plume model to scenarios of future climate change. In particular, we examine the transient response of the outlet glaciers to projected changes in surface melting, ocean temperature and subglacial discharge. With our modeling approach we quantify the amount of the surface and submarine melting and the resulting retreat and mass loss for each individual glacier for the next 100 years.

The First Annual West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) Science Workshop

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bindschadler, Robert A. (Editor)

1993-01-01

A compilation of abstracts presented at the workshop are presented. The goal was to answer the question, what is the future behavior and potential for rapid collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS)? The workshop was organized into four sessions corresponding to the four objectives identified as necessary to reach the WAIS workshop goal: history, current behavior, internal dynamics, and environmental interactions. Presentations were organized by their relevance to each objective, rather than by discipline.

Sensitivity of Totten Glacier Ice Shelf extent and grounding line to oceanic forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pelle, T.; Morlighem, M.; Choi, Y.

2017-12-01

Totten Glacier is a major outlet glacier of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet and has been shown to be vulnerable to ocean-induced melt in both its past and present states. The intrusion of warm, circumpolar deep water beneath the Totten Glacier Ice Shelf (TGIS) has been observed to accelerate ice shelf thinning and promote iceberg calving, a primary mechanism of mass discharge from Totten. As such, accurately simulating TGIS's ice front dynamics is crucial to the predictive capabilities of ice sheet models in this region. Here, we study the TGIS using the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM) and test the applicability of three calving laws: Crevasse Formation calving, Eigen calving, and Tensile Stress calving. We simulate the evolution of Totten Glacier through 2100 under enhanced oceanic forcing in order to investigate both future changes in ice front dynamics and possible thresholds of instability. In addition, we artificially retreat Totten's ice front position and allow the model to proceed dynamically in order to analyze the response of the glacier to calving events. Our analyses show that Tensile Stress calving most accurately reproduces Totten Glacier's observed ice front position. Furthermore, unstable grounding line retreat is projected when Totten is simulated under stronger oceanic thermal forcing scenarios and when the calving front is significantly retreated.

Greenhouse to Icehouse Antarctic Paleoclimate and Ice History from George V Land and Adélie Land Shelf Sediments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, T.; Escutia, C.; De Santis, L.; O'Brien, P.; Pekar, S. F.; Brinkhuis, H.; Domack, E. W.

2013-12-01

Along the George V and Adélie Land continental shelf of East Antarctica, shallowly-buried strata contain a record of Antarctica's climate and ice history from the lush forests of the Eocene greenhouse to the dynamic ice sheet margins of the Neogene. Short piston cores and dredges have recovered Early Cretaceous and Eocene organic-rich sediment at the seabed, and in 2010, IODP Expedition 318 recovered earliest Oligocene and early Pliocene subglacial and proglacial diamictites. However, challenging ice and drilling conditions from the JOIDES Resolution on the shelf resulted in poor core recovery and sites had to be abandoned before the stratigraphic targets could be reached. Therefore, in a new IODP drilling proposal submitted earlier this year, we propose to use the MeBo sea bed drill for improved core recovery and easier access to the shelf, and drill a stratigraphic transect of shallow (~80m) holes. To investigate the evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet in this sector, we target strata above and below regional erosional and downlap surfaces to date and characterize major episodes of ice sheet advance and retreat. These direct records of ice extent on the shelf can be set in the context of Southern Ocean records of temperature, ice-rafted debris (IRD) and latitudinal fluctuations of the opal belt, and hence we can relate ice sheet evolution to paleoclimate conditions. Targets include possible late Eocene precursor glaciations, the Eocene/Oligocene boundary erosion surface, Oligocene and Miocene ice extents, and ice margin fluctuations in the Pliocene. At the Cretaceous and Eocene proposed sites, marine and terrestrial temperature proxies and palynological records will provide information on high-latitude paleoenvironments and pole-equator temperature gradients. Here we present existing data from the area and the proposed new drill sites. The ice and climate history of the George V and Adélie Land margin can provide warm-world scenarios to help understand ice sheet instability in analogous future warm climates.

A new research project on the interaction of the solid Earth and the Antarctic Ice Sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fukuda, Y.; Nishijima, J.; Kazama, T.; Nakamura, K.; Doi, K.; Suganuma, Y.; Okuno, J.; Araya, A.; Kaneda, H.; Aoyama, Y.

2017-12-01

A new research project of "Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research on Innovative Areas" funded by JSPS (Japan Society for the Promotion of Science) has recently been launched. The title of the project is "Giant reservoirs of heat/water/material: Global environmental changes driven by Southern Ocean and Antarctic Ice Sheet", and as a five years project, is aiming to establish a new research area for Antarctic environmental system science. The project consists of 7 research topics, including Antarctic ice sheet and Southern ocean sciences, new observation methodology, modeling and other interdisciplinary topics, and we are involved in the topic A02-2, "Interaction of the solid Earth and the Antarctic Ice Sheet". The Antarctic ice sheet, which relates to the global climate changes through the sea level rise and ocean circulation, is an essential element of the Earth system for predicting the future environment changes. Thus many studies of the ice sheet changes have been conducted by means of geomorphological, geological, geodetic surveys, as well as satellite gravimetry and satellite altimetry. For these studies, one of the largest uncertainties is the effects of GIA. Therefore, GIA as a key to investigate the interaction between the solid Earth and the ice sheet changes, we plan to conduct geomorphological, geological and geodetic surveys in the inland mountain areas and the coastal areas including the surrounding areas of a Japanese station Syowa in East Antarctica, where the in-situ data for constraining GIA models are very few. Combining these new observations with other in-site data, various satellite data and numerical modeling, we aim to estimating a precise GIA model, constructing a reliable ice melting history after the last glacial maximum and obtaining the viscoelastic structure of the Earth's interior. In the presentation, we also show the five years research plans as well. This study was partially supported by JSPS KAKENHI Grant No. 17H06321.

Formation and interpretation of eskers beneath retreating ice sheets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Creyts, T. T.; Hewitt, I.

2017-12-01

The retreat of the ice sheets during the Pleistocene left large and spectacular subglacial features exposed. Understanding these features gives us insight into how the ice sheets retreated, how meltwater influenced retreat, and can help inform our understanding of potential future rates of ice sheet retreat. Among these features, eskers, long sinuous ridges primarily composed of clastic sediments, lack a detailed explanation of how surface melt rates and ice sheet retreat rates influence their growth and spatial distribution. Here, we develop a theory for esker formation based on the initial work of Rothlisberger modified for sediment transport and inclusion of surface meltwater forcing. The primary subglacial ingredients include water flow through subglacial tunnels with the addition of mass balances for sediment transport. We show how eskers when water flow slows below a critical stress for sediment motion. This implies that eskers are deposited in a localized region near the snout of the ice sheet. Our findings suggest that very long eskers form sequentially as the ice front retreats. The position of the esker follows the path of the channel mouth through time, which does not necessarily coincide with the instantaneous route of the feeding channel. However, in most cases, we expect those locations to be similar. The role of surface meltwater and the climatology associated with the forcing is crucial to the lateral spacing of the eskers. We predict that high surface melt rates lead to narrower catchments but that the greater extent of the ablation area means that channels are likely larger. At the same time, for a given channel size (and hence sediment flux), the size of a deposited esker depends on a margin retreat rate. Hence, the size of the eskers is related delicately to the balance between surface melt rates and margin retreat rates. We discuss how our theory can be combined with observed esker distributions to infer the relationship between these two rates and help understand the melt history of ice sheets.

Detection of Organic Matter in Greenland Ice Cores by Deep-UV Fluorescence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Willis, M.; Malaska, M.; Wanger, G.; Bhartia, R.; Eshelman, E.; Abbey, W.; Priscu, J. C.

2017-12-01

The Greenland Ice Sheet is an Earthly analog for icy ocean worlds in the outer Solar System. Future missions to such worlds including Europa, Enceladus, and Titan may potentially include spectroscopic instrumentation to examine the surface/subsurface. The primary goal of our research is to test deep UV/Raman systems for in the situ detection and localization of organics in ice. As part of this effort we used a deep-UV fluorescence instrument able to detect naturally fluorescent biological materials such as aromatic molecules found in proteins and whole cells. We correlated these data with more traditional downstream analyses of organic material in natural ices. Supraglacial ice cores (2-4 m) were collected from several sites on the southwest outlet of the Greenland Ice Sheet using a 14-cm fluid-free mechanical coring system. Repeat spectral mapping data were initially collected longitudinally on uncut core sections. Cores were then cut into 2 cm thick sections along the longitudinal axis, slowly melted and analyzed for total organic carbon (TOC), total dissolved nitrogen (TDN), and bacterial density. These data reveal a spatial correlation between organic matter concentration, cell density, and the deep UV fluorescence maps. Our results provide a profile of the organics embedded within the ice from the top surface into the glacial subsurface, and the TOC:TDN data from the clean interior of the cores are indicative of a biological origin. This work provides a background dataset for future work to characterize organic carbon in the Greenland Ice Sheet and validation of novel instrumentation for in situ data collection on icy bodies.

Increased future ice discharge from Antarctica owing to higher snowfall.

PubMed

Winkelmann, R; Levermann, A; Martin, M A; Frieler, K

2012-12-13

Anthropogenic climate change is likely to cause continuing global sea level rise, but some processes within the Earth system may mitigate the magnitude of the projected effect. Regional and global climate models simulate enhanced snowfall over Antarctica, which would provide a direct offset of the future contribution to global sea level rise from cryospheric mass loss and ocean expansion. Uncertainties exist in modelled snowfall, but even larger uncertainties exist in the potential changes of dynamic ice discharge from Antarctica and thus in the ultimate fate of the precipitation-deposited ice mass. Here we show that snowfall and discharge are not independent, but that future ice discharge will increase by up to three times as a result of additional snowfall under global warming. Our results, based on an ice-sheet model forced by climate simulations through to the end of 2500 (ref. 8), show that the enhanced discharge effect exceeds the effect of surface warming as well as that of basal ice-shelf melting, and is due to the difference in surface elevation change caused by snowfall on grounded versus floating ice. Although different underlying forcings drive ice loss from basal melting versus increased snowfall, similar ice dynamical processes are nonetheless at work in both; therefore results are relatively independent of the specific representation of the transition zone. In an ensemble of simulations designed to capture ice-physics uncertainty, the additional dynamic ice loss along the coastline compensates between 30 and 65 per cent of the ice gain due to enhanced snowfall over the entire continent. This results in a dynamic ice loss of up to 1.25 metres in the year 2500 for the strongest warming scenario. The reported effect thus strongly counters a potential negative contribution to global sea level by the Antarctic Ice Sheet.

Distinct patterns of seasonal Greenland glacier velocity

PubMed Central

Moon, Twila; Joughin, Ian; Smith, Ben; van den Broeke, Michiel R; van de Berg, Willem Jan; Noël, Brice; Usher, Mika

2014-01-01

Predicting Greenland Ice Sheet mass loss due to ice dynamics requires a complete understanding of spatiotemporal velocity fluctuations and related control mechanisms. We present a 5 year record of seasonal velocity measurements for 55 marine-terminating glaciers distributed around the ice sheet margin, along with ice-front position and runoff data sets for each glacier. Among glaciers with substantial speed variations, we find three distinct seasonal velocity patterns. One pattern indicates relatively high glacier sensitivity to ice-front position. The other two patterns are more prevalent and appear to be meltwater controlled. These patterns reveal differences in which some subglacial systems likely transition seasonally from inefficient, distributed hydrologic networks to efficient, channelized drainage, while others do not. The difference may be determined by meltwater availability, which in some regions may be influenced by perennial firn aquifers. Our results highlight the need to understand subglacial meltwater availability on an ice sheet-wide scale to predict future dynamic changes. Key Points First multi-region seasonal velocity measurements show regional differences Seasonal velocity fluctuations on most glaciers appear meltwater controlled Seasonal development of efficient subglacial drainage geographically divided PMID:25821275

Greenland ice sheet mass balance: a review.

PubMed

Khan, Shfaqat A; Aschwanden, Andy; Bjørk, Anders A; Wahr, John; Kjeldsen, Kristian K; Kjær, Kurt H

2015-04-01

Over the past quarter of a century the Arctic has warmed more than any other region on Earth, causing a profound impact on the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) and its contribution to the rise in global sea level. The loss of ice can be partitioned into processes related to surface mass balance and to ice discharge, which are forced by internal or external (atmospheric/oceanic/basal) fluctuations. Regardless of the measurement method, observations over the last two decades show an increase in ice loss rate, associated with speeding up of glaciers and enhanced melting. However, both ice discharge and melt-induced mass losses exhibit rapid short-term fluctuations that, when extrapolated into the future, could yield erroneous long-term trends. In this paper we review the GrIS mass loss over more than a century by combining satellite altimetry, airborne altimetry, interferometry, aerial photographs and gravimetry data sets together with modelling studies. We revisit the mass loss of different sectors and show that they manifest quite different sensitivities to atmospheric and oceanic forcing. In addition, we discuss recent progress in constructing coupled ice-ocean-atmosphere models required to project realistic future sea-level changes.

Ice stream activity scaled to ice sheet volume during Laurentide Ice Sheet deglaciation.

PubMed

Stokes, C R; Margold, M; Clark, C D; Tarasov, L

2016-02-18

The contribution of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets to sea level has increased in recent decades, largely owing to the thinning and retreat of outlet glaciers and ice streams. This dynamic loss is a serious concern, with some modelling studies suggesting that the collapse of a major ice sheet could be imminent or potentially underway in West Antarctica, but others predicting a more limited response. A major problem is that observations used to initialize and calibrate models typically span only a few decades, and, at the ice-sheet scale, it is unclear how the entire drainage network of ice streams evolves over longer timescales. This represents one of the largest sources of uncertainty when predicting the contributions of ice sheets to sea-level rise. A key question is whether ice streams might increase and sustain rates of mass loss over centuries or millennia, beyond those expected for a given ocean-climate forcing. Here we reconstruct the activity of 117 ice streams that operated at various times during deglaciation of the Laurentide Ice Sheet (from about 22,000 to 7,000 years ago) and show that as they activated and deactivated in different locations, their overall number decreased, they occupied a progressively smaller percentage of the ice sheet perimeter and their total discharge decreased. The underlying geology and topography clearly influenced ice stream activity, but--at the ice-sheet scale--their drainage network adjusted and was linked to changes in ice sheet volume. It is unclear whether these findings can be directly translated to modern ice sheets. However, contrary to the view that sees ice streams as unstable entities that can accelerate ice-sheet deglaciation, we conclude that ice streams exerted progressively less influence on ice sheet mass balance during the retreat of the Laurentide Ice Sheet.

Massive blow-out craters formed by hydrate-controlled methane expulsion from the Arctic seafloor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andreassen, K.; Hubbard, A.; Winsborrow, M.; Patton, H.; Vadakkepuliyambatta, S.; Plaza-Faverola, A.; Gudlaugsson, E.; Serov, P.; Deryabin, A.; Mattingsdal, R.; Mienert, J.; Bünz, S.

2017-06-01

Widespread methane release from thawing Arctic gas hydrates is a major concern, yet the processes, sources, and fluxes involved remain unconstrained. We present geophysical data documenting a cluster of kilometer-wide craters and mounds from the Barents Sea floor associated with large-scale methane expulsion. Combined with ice sheet/gas hydrate modeling, our results indicate that during glaciation, natural gas migrated from underlying hydrocarbon reservoirs and was sequestered extensively as subglacial gas hydrates. Upon ice sheet retreat, methane from this hydrate reservoir concentrated in massive mounds before being abruptly released to form craters. We propose that these processes were likely widespread across past glaciated petroleum provinces and that they also provide an analog for the potential future destabilization of subglacial gas hydrate reservoirs beneath contemporary ice sheets.

Subglacial Volcanism in West-Antarctica - A Geologic and Ice Dynamical Perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vogel, S. W.; Tulaczyk, S.; Carter, S.; Renne, P.; Turrin, B. D.; Joughin, I.

2004-12-01

Subglacial volcanic eruptions may increase the contribution of the West-Antarctic Ice-Sheet (WAIS) to global sea-level rise in the near-future by enhancing basal melt water production and ice flow lubrication. Geophysical data have led scientists to believe that the ice sheet may be located over an extensive, young volcanic province containing ~1 million cubic kilometers of basalts (Behrendt, 1964; Behrendt et. al., 1991; 1995; 1998). While not all scientists may recognize this theory of widespread subglacial volcanism, so far no scientific paper has challenged its existence. Here we present the first geologic constraints on the presence/absence of widespread Late Cenozoic subglacial volcanism beneath the WAIS and investigate the potential influence of an individual subglacial volcano (Blankenship et. al., 1993) on the flow dynamic of WAIS. Properties of subglacial sediments indicate limited presence of subglacial volcanic rocks. Moreover, the only two basaltic pebbles, recovered from the region, are of Mesozoic-Paleozoic age (~100 to ~500 million years). While these findings reduce the potential for widespread near-future increases in ice discharge from WAIS due to eruptions of subglacial volcanoes, they do not rule out the presence of individual hot spots associated with volcanic centers beneath the WAIS. Fuel for the existence of a proposed volcano (Mt. Casertz) on the Whitmore Mountain Ross Sea Transitional Crust (WRT; Blankenship et. al., 1993), in the southern part of the WAIS, comes from thermo-dynamical modeling in comparison with observed ice velocities. Ice velocities (Joughin et. al., 1999; 2002) downstream of Mt. Casertz indicate significant basal sliding, where thermo-dynamical models suggest that the ice sheet is frozen to its base. Routing of basal melt water, produced in the vicinity of Mt. Casertz, may lubricate the ice base in parts of the WRT, thus enabling basal sliding and enhancing the discharge of ice in this sector of the WAIS. The only means to resolve any further questions on the existence of subglacial volcanism in West-Antarctica and its potential impact on the dynamic of the ice sheet, requires drilling into potential volcanic centers and the recovery of volcanic rocks for dating and geochemical analysis.

Snow Grain Size Retrieval over the Polar Ice Sheets with the Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) Observations

PubMed Central

Yang, Yuekui; Marshak, Alexander; Han, Mei; Palm, Stephen P.; Harding, David J.

2018-01-01

Snow grain size is an important parameter for cryosphere studies. As a proof of concept, this paper presents an approach to retrieve this parameter over Greenland, East and West Antarctica ice sheets from surface reflectances observed with the Geoscience Laser Altimeter System (GLAS) onboard the Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) at 1064 nm. Spaceborne lidar observations overcome many of the disadvantages in passive remote sensing, including difficulties in cloud screening and low sun angle limitations; hence tend to provide more accurate and stable retrievals. Results from the GLAS L2A campaign, which began on 25 September and lasted until 19 November, 2003, show that the mode of the grain size distribution over Greenland is the largest (~300 μm) among the three, West Antarctica is the second (~220 μm) and East Antarctica is the smallest (~190 μm). Snow grain sizes are larger over the coastal regions compared to inland the ice sheets. These results are consistent with previous studies. Applying the broadband snow surface albedo parameterization scheme developed by Garder and Sharp (2010) to the retrieved snow grain size, ice sheet surface albedo is also derived. In the future, more accurate retrievals can be achieved with multiple wavelengths lidar observations. PMID:29636591

Snow Grain Size Retrieval over the Polar Ice Sheets with the Ice, Cloud and Land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yang, Yuekui; Marshak, Alexander; Han, Mei; Palm, Stephen P.; Harding, David J.

2016-01-01

Snow grain size is an important parameter for cryosphere studies. As a proof of concept, this paper presents an approach to retrieve this parameter over Greenland, East and West Antarctica ice sheets from surface reflectances observed with the Geoscience Laser Altimeter System (GLAS) onboard the Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) at 1064 nanometers. Spaceborne lidar observations overcome many of the disadvantages in passive remote sensing, including difficulties in cloud screening and low sun angle limitations; hence tend to provide more accurate and stable retrievals. Results from the GLAS L2A campaign, which began on 25 September and lasted until 19 November, 2003, show that the mode of the grain size distribution over Greenland is the largest (approximately 300 microns) among the three, West Antarctica is the second (220 microns) and East Antarctica is the smallest (190 microns). Snow grain sizes are larger over the coastal regions compared to inland the ice sheets. These results are consistent with previous studies. Applying the broadband snow surface albedo parameterization scheme developed by Garder and Sharp (2010) to the retrieved snow grain size, ice sheet surface albedo is also derived. In the future, more accurate retrievals can be achieved with multiple wavelengths lidar observations.

Committed sea-level rise for the next century from Greenland ice sheet dynamics during the past decade

PubMed Central

Price, Stephen F.; Payne, Antony J.; Howat, Ian M.; Smith, Benjamin E.

2011-01-01

We use a three-dimensional, higher-order ice flow model and a realistic initial condition to simulate dynamic perturbations to the Greenland ice sheet during the last decade and to assess their contribution to sea level by 2100. Starting from our initial condition, we apply a time series of observationally constrained dynamic perturbations at the marine termini of Greenland’s three largest outlet glaciers, Jakobshavn Isbræ, Helheim Glacier, and Kangerdlugssuaq Glacier. The initial and long-term diffusive thinning within each glacier catchment is then integrated spatially and temporally to calculate a minimum sea-level contribution of approximately 1 ± 0.4 mm from these three glaciers by 2100. Based on scaling arguments, we extend our modeling to all of Greenland and estimate a minimum dynamic sea-level contribution of approximately 6 ± 2 mm by 2100. This estimate of committed sea-level rise is a minimum because it ignores mass loss due to future changes in ice sheet dynamics or surface mass balance. Importantly, > 75% of this value is from the long-term, diffusive response of the ice sheet, suggesting that the majority of sea-level rise from Greenland dynamics during the past decade is yet to come. Assuming similar and recurring forcing in future decades and a self-similar ice dynamical response, we estimate an upper bound of 45 mm of sea-level rise from Greenland dynamics by 2100. These estimates are constrained by recent observations of dynamic mass loss in Greenland and by realistic model behavior that accounts for both the long-term cumulative mass loss and its decay following episodic boundary forcing. PMID:21576500

Committed sea-level rise for the next century from Greenland ice sheet dynamics during the past decade.

PubMed

Price, Stephen F; Payne, Antony J; Howat, Ian M; Smith, Benjamin E

2011-05-31

We use a three-dimensional, higher-order ice flow model and a realistic initial condition to simulate dynamic perturbations to the Greenland ice sheet during the last decade and to assess their contribution to sea level by 2100. Starting from our initial condition, we apply a time series of observationally constrained dynamic perturbations at the marine termini of Greenland's three largest outlet glaciers, Jakobshavn Isbræ, Helheim Glacier, and Kangerdlugssuaq Glacier. The initial and long-term diffusive thinning within each glacier catchment is then integrated spatially and temporally to calculate a minimum sea-level contribution of approximately 1 ± 0.4 mm from these three glaciers by 2100. Based on scaling arguments, we extend our modeling to all of Greenland and estimate a minimum dynamic sea-level contribution of approximately 6 ± 2 mm by 2100. This estimate of committed sea-level rise is a minimum because it ignores mass loss due to future changes in ice sheet dynamics or surface mass balance. Importantly, > 75% of this value is from the long-term, diffusive response of the ice sheet, suggesting that the majority of sea-level rise from Greenland dynamics during the past decade is yet to come. Assuming similar and recurring forcing in future decades and a self-similar ice dynamical response, we estimate an upper bound of 45 mm of sea-level rise from Greenland dynamics by 2100. These estimates are constrained by recent observations of dynamic mass loss in Greenland and by realistic model behavior that accounts for both the long-term cumulative mass loss and its decay following episodic boundary forcing.

Latest Word on Retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bindschadler, R.

2000-01-01

The West Antarctic ice sheet during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) is estimated to have been three times its present volume and to have extended close to the edge of the continental shelf Holocene retreat of this ice sheet in the Ross Sea began between 11,000 and 12,000 years ago. This history implies an average contribution of this ice sheet to sea level of 0.9 mm/a. Evidence of dateable past grounding line positions in the Ross sector are broadly consistent with a linear retreat model. However, inferred rates of retreat for some of these grounding line positions are not consistent with a linear retreat model. More rapid retreat approximately 7600 years ago and possible near-stability in the Ross Sea sector at present suggest a slow rate of initial retreat followed by a more rapid-than-average retreat during the late Holocene, returning to a near-zero rate of retreat currently. This model is also consistent with the mid-Holocene high stand observations of eustatic sea level. Recent compilation of Antarctic bed elevations (BEDMAP) illustrates that the LGM and present grounding lines occur in the shallowest waters, further supporting the model of a middle phase of rapid retreat bracketed by an older and a more recent phase of modest retreat. Extension of these hypotheses into the future make subsequent behavior of the West Antarctic ice sheet more difficult to predict but suggest that if it loses its hold on the present shallow bed, the final retreat of the ice sheet could be very rapid.

Simple model of melange and its influence on rapid ice retreat in a large-scale Antarctic ice sheet model.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pollard, D.; Deconto, R. M.

2017-12-01

Theory, modeling and observations point to the prospect of runaway grounding-line retreat and marine ice loss from West Antarctica and major East Antarctic basins, in response to climate warming. These rapid retreats are associated with geologic evidence of past high sea-level stands, and pose a threat of drastic sea-level rise in the future.Rapid calving of ice from deep grounding lines generates substantial downstream melange (floating ice debris). It is unknown whether this melange has a significant effect on ice dynamics during major Antarctic retreats, through clogging of seaways and back pressure at the grounding line. Observations in Greenland fjords suggest that melange can have a significant buttressing effect, but the lateral scales of Antarctic basins are an order of magnitude larger (100's km compared to 10's km), with presumably much less influence of confining margins.Here we attempt to include melange as a prognostic variable in a 3-DAntarctic ice sheet-shelf model. Continuum mechanics is used as aheuristic representation of discrete particle physics. Melange is createdby ice calving and cliff failure. Its dynamics are treated similarly to ice flow, but with little or no resistance to divergence. Melange providesback pressure where adjacent to grounded tidewater ice faces or ice-shelf edges. We examine the influence of the new melange component during rapid Antarctic retreat in warm-Pliocene and future warming scenarios.

Antarctic ice sheet discharge driven by atmosphere-ocean feedbacks at the Last Glacial Termination.

PubMed

Fogwill, C J; Turney, C S M; Golledge, N R; Etheridge, D M; Rubino, M; Thornton, D P; Baker, A; Woodward, J; Winter, K; van Ommen, T D; Moy, A D; Curran, M A J; Davies, S M; Weber, M E; Bird, M I; Munksgaard, N C; Menviel, L; Rootes, C M; Ellis, B; Millman, H; Vohra, J; Rivera, A; Cooper, A

2017-01-05

Reconstructing the dynamic response of the Antarctic ice sheets to warming during the Last Glacial Termination (LGT; 18,000-11,650 yrs ago) allows us to disentangle ice-climate feedbacks that are key to improving future projections. Whilst the sequence of events during this period is reasonably well-known, relatively poor chronological control has precluded precise alignment of ice, atmospheric and marine records, making it difficult to assess relationships between Antarctic ice-sheet (AIS) dynamics, climate change and sea level. Here we present results from a highly-resolved 'horizontal ice core' from the Weddell Sea Embayment, which records millennial-scale AIS dynamics across this extensive region. Counterintuitively, we find AIS mass-loss across the full duration of the Antarctic Cold Reversal (ACR; 14,600-12,700 yrs ago), with stabilisation during the subsequent millennia of atmospheric warming. Earth-system and ice-sheet modelling suggests these contrasting trends were likely Antarctic-wide, sustained by feedbacks amplified by the delivery of Circumpolar Deep Water onto the continental shelf. Given the anti-phase relationship between inter-hemispheric climate trends across the LGT our findings demonstrate that Southern Ocean-AIS feedbacks were controlled by global atmospheric teleconnections. With increasing stratification of the Southern Ocean and intensification of mid-latitude westerly winds today, such teleconnections could amplify AIS mass loss and accelerate global sea-level rise.

Physical Limits on Hmax, the Maximum Height of Glaciers and Ice Sheets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lipovsky, B. P.

2017-12-01

The longest glaciers and ice sheets on Earth never achieve a topographic relief, or height, greater than about Hmax = 4 km. What laws govern this apparent maximum height to which a glacier or ice sheet may rise? Two types of answer appear possible: one relating to geological process and the other to ice dynamics. In the first type of answer, one might suppose that if Earth had 100 km tall mountains then there would be many 20 km tall glaciers. The counterpoint to this argument is that recent evidence suggests that glaciers themselves limit the maximum height of mountain ranges. We turn, then, to ice dynamical explanations for Hmax. The classical ice dynamical theory of Nye (1951), however, does not predict any break in scaling to give rise to a maximum height, Hmax. I present a simple model for the height of glaciers and ice sheets. The expression is derived from a simplified representation of a thermomechanically coupled ice sheet that experiences a basal shear stress governed by Coulomb friction (i.e., a stress proportional to the overburden pressure minus the water pressure). I compare this model to satellite-derived digital elevation map measurements of glacier surface height profiles for the 200,000 glaciers in the Randolph Glacier Inventory (Pfeffer et al., 2014) as well as flowlines from the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets. The simplified model provides a surprisingly good fit to these global observations. Small glaciers less than 1 km in length are characterized by having negligible influence of basal melt water, cold ( -15C) beds, and high surface slopes ( 30 deg). Glaciers longer than a critical distance 30km are characterized by having an ice-bed interface that is weakened by the presence of meltwater and is therefore not capable of supporting steep surface slopes. The simplified model makes predictions of ice volume change as a function of surface temperature, accumulation rate, and geothermal heat flux. For this reason, it provides insights into both past and future global ice volume changes.

The Cryosphere Model Comparison Tool (CmCt): Ice Sheet Model Validation and Comparison Tool for Greenland and Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Simon, E.; Nowicki, S.; Neumann, T.; Tyahla, L.; Saba, J. L.; Guerber, J. R.; Bonin, J. A.; DiMarzio, J. P.

2017-12-01

The Cryosphere model Comparison tool (CmCt) is a web based ice sheet model validation tool that is being developed by NASA to facilitate direct comparison between observational data and various ice sheet models. The CmCt allows the user to take advantage of several decades worth of observations from Greenland and Antarctica. Currently, the CmCt can be used to compare ice sheet models provided by the user with remotely sensed satellite data from ICESat (Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite) laser altimetry, GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) satellite, and radar altimetry (ERS-1, ERS-2, and Envisat). One or more models can be uploaded through the CmCt website and compared with observational data, or compared to each other or other models. The CmCt calculates statistics on the differences between the model and observations, and other quantitative and qualitative metrics, which can be used to evaluate the different model simulations against the observations. The qualitative metrics consist of a range of visual outputs and the quantitative metrics consist of several whole-ice-sheet scalar values that can be used to assign an overall score to a particular simulation. The comparison results from CmCt are useful in quantifying improvements within a specific model (or within a class of models) as a result of differences in model dynamics (e.g., shallow vs. higher-order dynamics approximations), model physics (e.g., representations of ice sheet rheological or basal processes), or model resolution (mesh resolution and/or changes in the spatial resolution of input datasets). The framework and metrics could also be used for use as a model-to-model intercomparison tool, simply by swapping outputs from another model as the observational datasets. Future versions of the tool will include comparisons with other datasets that are of interest to the modeling community, such as ice velocity, ice thickness, and surface mass balance.

Whillans Ice Stream Subglacial Access Research Drilling (WISSARD): Integrative Study of Marine Ice Sheet Stability and Subglacial Life Habitats (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tulaczyk, S. M.; Anandakrishnan, S.; Behar, A. E.; Christner, B. C.; Fisher, A. T.; Fricker, H. A.; Holland, D. M.; Jacobel, R. W.; Mikucki, J.; Mitchell, A. C.; Powell, R. D.; Priscu, J. C.; Scherer, R. P.; Severinghaus, J. P.

2009-12-01

The WISSARD project is a large, NSF-funded, interdisciplinary initiative focused on scientific drilling, exploration, and investigation of Antarctic subglacial aquatic environments. The project consists of three interrelated components: (1) LISSARD - Lake and Ice Stream Subglacial Access Research Drilling, (2) RAGES - Robotic Access to Grounding-zones for Exploration and Science, and (3) GBASE - GeomicroBiology of Antarctic Subglacial Environments). A number of previous studies in West Antarctica highlighted the importance of understanding ice sheet interactions with water, either at the basal boundary where ice streams come in contact with active subglacial hydrologic and geological systems or at the marine margin where the ice sheet is exposed to forcing from the global ocean and sedimentation. Recent biological investigations of Antarctic subglacial environments show that they provide a significant habitat for life and source of bacterial carbon in a setting that was previously thought to be inhospitable. Subglacial microbial ecosystems also enhance biogeochemical weathering, mobilizing elements from long term geological storage. The overarching scientific objective of WISSARD is to examine the subglacial hydrological system of West Antarctica in glaciological, geological, microbiological, geochemical, and oceanographic contexts. Direct sampling will yield seminal information on these systems and test the overarching hypothesis that active hydrological systems connect various subglacial environments and exert major control on ice sheet dynamics, subglacial sediment transfer, geochemistry, metabolic and phylogenetic diversity, and biogeochemical transformations and geological records of ice sheet history. Technological advances during WISSARD will provide the US-science community with a capability to access and study sub-ice sheet environments. Developing this technological infrastructure will benefit the broader science community and it will be available for future use. Furthermore, these projects will pioneer an approach implementing recommendations from the National Research Council committee on Principles of Environmental Stewardship for the Exploration and Study of Subglacial Environments.

Iceberg discharges of the last glacial period driven by oceanic circulation changes

PubMed Central

Alvarez-Solas, Jorge; Robinson, Alexander; Montoya, Marisa; Ritz, Catherine

2013-01-01

Proxy data reveal the existence of episodes of increased deposition of ice-rafted detritus in the North Atlantic Ocean during the last glacial period interpreted as massive iceberg discharges from the Laurentide Ice Sheet. Although these have long been attributed to self-sustained ice sheet oscillations, growing evidence of the crucial role that the ocean plays both for past and future behavior of the cryosphere suggests a climatic control of these ice surges. Here, we present simulations of the last glacial period carried out with a hybrid ice sheet–ice shelf model forced by an oceanic warming index derived from proxy data that accounts for the impact of past ocean circulation changes on ocean temperatures. The model generates a time series of iceberg discharge that closely agrees with ice-rafted debris records over the past 80 ka, indicating that oceanic circulation variations were responsible for the enigmatic ice purges of the last ice age. PMID:24062437

The deglacial history of NW Alexander Island, Antarctica, from surface exposure dating

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, Joanne S.; Everest, Jeremy D.; Leat, Philip T.; Golledge, Nicholas R.; Rood, Dylan H.; Stuart, Finlay M.

2012-03-01

Recent changes along the margins of the Antarctic Peninsula, such as the collapse of the Wilkins Ice Shelf, have highlighted the effects of climatic warming on the Antarctic Peninsula Ice Sheet (APIS). However, such changes must be viewed in a long-term (millennial-scale) context if we are to understand their significance for future stability of the Antarctic ice sheets. To address this, we present nine new cosmogenic 10Be exposure ages from sites on NW Alexander Island and Rothschild Island (adjacent to the Wilkins Ice Shelf) that provide constraints on the timing of thinning of the Alexander Island ice cap since the last glacial maximum. All but one of the 10Be ages are in the range 10.2-21.7 ka, showing a general trend of progressive ice-sheet thinning since at least 22 ka until 10 ka. The data also provide a minimum estimate (490 m) for ice-cap thickness on NW Alexander Island at the last glacial maximum. Cosmogenic 3He ages from a rare occurrence of mantle xenoliths on Rothschild Island yield variable ages up to 46 ka, probably reflecting exhumation by periglacial processes.

Reconciliation of Antarctic marine and terrestrial geologic records: climate and ice-sheet variability in the mid-Miocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Halberstadt, A. R. W.; DeConto, R.; Gasson, E.; Kowalewski, D. E.; Levy, R. H.; Naish, T.; Chorley, H.

2017-12-01

The mid-Miocene Climatic Optimum ( 17-15 Ma) serves as a possible analog for future Antarctic conditions, as atmospheric CO2 concentrations were similar to those projected for the next few decades. During the subsequent mid-Miocene Climatic Transition, the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) developed from a more variable ice sheet to a continental, marine-terminating ice sheet resembling the modern configuration. Near-shore marine records from the Ross Sea (ANDRILL-2A; Levy et al., 2016) imply highly dynamic AIS behavior in the mid-Miocene. Reconstructed environmental conditions during this time period range from full glaciation of the area to a warm interglacial environment. Multiple AIS expansions during the mid-Miocene are interpreted from geophysical evidence including seismic surveys correlated to drill core data (Chow & Bart, 2003). These marine records are seemingly at odds with sedimentary and geomorphic studies in the McMurdo Dry Valleys (MDVs) that suggest the East Antarctic Ice Sheet was mostly invariable since the mid-Miocene (Sugden & Denton, 2004). Well-preserved landforms, observed by Marchant et al. (2013) and others, lack any indication of surface modification from glacial advance or wet cryoturbation, suggesting that hyper-arid cold-desert conditions have persisted in the MDVs since the mid-Miocene. This long-term landform stability in the MDVs implying a stable ice sheet is seemingly inconsistent with the highly dynamic AIS behavior reconstructed by Levy et al. (2016). Here, we use a Regional Climate Model (cf. Gasson et al., 2016) with a range of greenhouse gas concentrations, orbital configurations, ice sheet and shelf geometries, and sea surface conditions to reconcile the apparent dichotomy between marine and terrestrial records. Preliminary results reveal lapse-rate-corrected temperatures in the MDVs that generally remained below freezing in the austral summer, even under the warmest Miocene simulations (840 ppmv atmospheric CO2, `warm' austral summer orbit, and an ice sheet 53% of its modern volume). Model results will be compared with emerging terrestrial data from the Friis Hills in the MDVs, to test the hypothesis that climate in the MDVs remained relatively cold and insensitive to a highly variable West Antarctic Ice Sheet and marine conditions in the proximal Ross Sea.

How might the North American ice sheet influence the northwestern Eurasian climate?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beghin, P.; Charbit, S.; Dumas, C.; Kageyama, M.; Ritz, C.

2015-10-01

It is now widely acknowledged that past Northern Hemisphere ice sheets covering Canada and northern Europe at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) exerted a strong influence on climate by causing changes in atmospheric and oceanic circulations. In turn, these changes may have impacted the development of the ice sheets themselves through a combination of different feedback mechanisms. The present study is designed to investigate the potential impact of the North American ice sheet on the surface mass balance (SMB) of the Eurasian ice sheet driven by simulated changes in the past glacial atmospheric circulation. Using the LMDZ5 atmospheric circulation model, we carried out 12 experiments under constant LGM conditions for insolation, greenhouse gases and ocean. In these experiments, the Eurasian ice sheet is removed. The 12 experiments differ in the North American ice-sheet topography, ranging from a white and flat (present-day topography) ice sheet to a full-size LGM ice sheet. This experimental design allows the albedo and the topographic impacts of the North American ice sheet onto the climate to be disentangled. The results are compared to our baseline experiment where both the North American and the Eurasian ice sheets have been removed. In summer, the sole albedo effect of the American ice sheet modifies the pattern of planetary waves with respect to the no-ice-sheet case, resulting in a cooling of the northwestern Eurasian region. By contrast, the atmospheric circulation changes induced by the topography of the North American ice sheet lead to a strong decrease of this cooling. In winter, the Scandinavian and the Barents-Kara regions respond differently to the American ice-sheet albedo effect: in response to atmospheric circulation changes, Scandinavia becomes warmer and total precipitation is more abundant, whereas the Barents-Kara area becomes cooler with a decrease of convective processes, causing a decrease of total precipitation. The gradual increase of the altitude of the American ice sheet leads to less total precipitation and snowfall and to colder temperatures over both the Scandinavian and the Barents and Kara sea sectors. We then compute the resulting annual surface mass balance over the Fennoscandian region from the simulated temperature and precipitation fields used to force an ice-sheet model. It clearly appears that the SMB is dominated by the ablation signal. In response to the summer cooling induced by the American ice-sheet albedo, high positive SMB values are obtained over the Eurasian region, leading thus to the growth of an ice sheet. On the contrary, the gradual increase of the American ice-sheet altitude induces more ablation over the Eurasian sector, hence limiting the growth of Fennoscandia. To test the robustness of our results with respect to the Eurasian ice sheet state, we carried out two additional LMDZ experiments with new boundary conditions involving both the American (flat or full LGM) and high Eurasian ice sheets. The most striking result is that the Eurasian ice sheet is maintained under full-LGM North American ice-sheet conditions, but loses ~ 10 % of its mass compared to the case in which the North American ice sheet is flat. These new findings qualitatively confirm the conclusions from our first series of experiments and suggest that the development of the Eurasian ice sheet may have been slowed down by the growth of the American ice sheet, offering thereby a new understanding of the evolution of Northern Hemisphere ice sheets throughout glacial-interglacial cycles.

On the Utilization of Ice Flow Models and Uncertainty Quantification to Interpret the Impact of Surface Radiation Budget Errors on Estimates of Greenland Ice Sheet Surface Mass Balance and Regional Estimates of Mass Balance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schlegel, N.; Larour, E. Y.; Gardner, A. S.; Lang, C.; Miller, C. E.; van den Broeke, M. R.

2016-12-01

How Greenland ice flow may respond to future increases in surface runoff and to increases in the frequency of extreme melt events is unclear, as it requires detailed comprehension of Greenland surface climate and the ice sheet's sensitivity to associated uncertainties. With established uncertainty quantification tools run within the framework of Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM), we conduct decadal-scale forward modeling experiments to 1) quantify the spatial resolution needed to effectively force distinct components of the surface radiation budget, and subsequently surface mass balance (SMB), in various regions of the ice sheet and 2) determine the dynamic response of Greenland ice flow to variations in components of the net radiation budget. The Glacier Energy and Mass Balance (GEMB) software is a column surface model (1-D) that has recently been embedded as a module within ISSM. Using the ISSM-GEMB framework, we perform sensitivity analyses to determine how perturbations in various components of the surface radiation budget affect model output; these model experiments allow us predict where and on what spatial scale the ice sheet is likely to dynamically respond to changes in these parameters. Preliminary results suggest that SMB should be forced at at least a resolution of 23 km to properly capture dynamic ice response. In addition, Monte-Carlo style sampling analyses reveals that the areas with the largest uncertainty in mass flux are located near the equilibrium line altitude (ELA), upstream of major outlet glaciers in the North and West of the ice sheet. Sensitivity analysis indicates that these areas are also the most vulnerable on the ice sheet to persistent, far-field shifts in SMB, suggesting that continued warming, and upstream shift in the ELA, are likely to result in increased velocities, and consequentially SMB-induced thinning upstream of major outlet glaciers. Here, we extend our investigation to consider various components of the surface radiation budget separately, in order to determine how and where errors in these fields may independently impact ice flow. This work was performed at the California Institute of Technology's Jet Propulsion Laboratory under a contract with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Cryosphere and Interdisciplinary Research in Earth Science Programs.

Long-term Glacial History of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet from Cosmogenic Nuclides in a Subglacial Bedrock Core

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spector, P. E.; Stone, J.; Hillebrand, T.; Gombiner, J. H.

2017-12-01

To investigate the response of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) to climatic conditions warmer than present, we are analyzing cosmogenic nuclides in a bedrock core from beneath 150 m of ice at a site near the Pirrit Hills. Our aim is to determine whether the WAIS has thinned in the past, exposing bedrock at this site, and if so, when. This will help to determine the vulnerability of the ice sheet to future warming, and identify climatic thresholds capable of inducing WAIS collapse. We selected a site where the ice-sheet surface lies at 1300 m, approximately halfway from the ice-sheet divide to the grounding line. We expect ice thickness at the site to reflect WAIS dynamics, rather than local meteorology or topography. Ice flow speeds are moderate and ice above the core site is thin enough to remain cold-based, limiting the possibility of subglacial erosion which would compromise the cosmogenic nuclide record. We targeted a subglacial ridge adjacent to an exposed granite nunatak. This lithology provides minerals suitable for analysis of multiple cosmogenic nuclides with different half-lives. Although we aimed to collect two cores from different depths to compare exposure histories, hydrofracture of the basal ice prevented us from reaching the bed at the first drill site. The second hole produced 5.5 m of discontinuous ice core above 8 m of bedrock core. Initial analyses of quartz from the bedrock show low levels of Be-10. Further analyses of Be-10, Al-26, Cl-36 and Ne-21 from the full length of the core will be required to determine whether this is because the surface has never been exposed, or because the cosmogenic nuclide profile has been truncated by glacial erosion. We will present comprehensive cosmogenic nuclide data, and discuss implications for WAIS deglaciation history, at the meeting. Supported by US National Science Foundation awards ANT-1142162 and PLR-1341728.

Synthesis of a quarter-century of satellite and airborne altimetry records to resolve long-term ice sheet elevation change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nilsson, J.; Paolo, F. S.; Simonsen, S.; Gardner, A. S.

2017-12-01

Satellite and airborne altimetry provide the longest continuous record from which the mass balance of the Antarctic ice sheet can be derived, starting with the launch of ERS-1 in 1992. Accurate knowledge of the long-term mass balance is vital for understanding the geophysical processes governing the ice sheet contribution to present day sea-level rise. However, this record is comprised of several different measurement systems, with different accuracies and varying resolution. This poses a major challenge on the interpretation and reconstruction of consistent elevation-change time series for determining long-term ice sheet trends and variability. Previous studies using data from multiple satellite altimetry missions have relied on a cross-calibration technique based on crossover bias analysis to merge records from different sensors. This methodology, though accurate, limits the spatial coverage to typical resolutions of 10-50 km, restricting the approach to regional or continental-wide studies. In this study, we present a novel framework for seamless integration of heterogeneous altimetry records, using an adaptive least-squares minimization technique. The procedure allows reconstructing time series at fine spatial (<5 km) and temporal (monthly) scales, while accounting for sensor-dependent biases and heterogeneous data quality. We synthesize altimetry records spanning the time period 1992-2016 to derive long-term time series of elevation change for the Antarctica ice sheet, including both data from the European Space Agency (ERS-1, ERS-2, Envisat and CryoSat-2) and NASA (ICESat and Operation IceBridge), with future inclusion of data from NASA's ICESat-2. Mission specific errors, estimated from independent airborne measurements and crossover analysis, are propagated to derive uncertainty bounds for each individual time series. We also perform an extensive analysis of the major corrections applied to raw satellite altimetry data to assess their overall effect on the estimated uncertainty. This methodology will allow us to determine robust long-term changes in the surface elevation of grounded Antarctic ice. Such a dataset will be invaluable to advancing ice sheet assimilation efforts and to disentangle causal mechanisms of modern ice sheet response to environmental forcing.

Constraints on ice volume changes of the WAIS and Ross Ice Shelf since the LGM based on cosmogenic exposure ages in the Darwin-Hatherton glacial system of the Transantarctic Mountains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fink, David; Storey, Bryan; Hood, David; Joy, Kurt; Shulmeister, James

2010-05-01

Quantitative assessment of the spatial and temporal scale of ice volume change of the West Antarctic ice sheet (WAIS) and Ross Ice Shelf since the last glacial maximum (LGM) ~20 ka is essential to accurately predict ice sheet response to current and future climate change. Although global sea level rose by approximately 120 metres since the LGM, the contribution of polar ice sheets is uncertain and the timing of any such contribution is controversial. Mackintosh et al (2007) suggest that sectors of the EAIS, similar to those studied at Framnes Mountains where the ice sheet slowly calves at coastal margins, have made marginal contributions to global sea-level rise between 13 and 7 ka. In contrast, Stone et al (2003) document continuing WAIS decay during the mid-late Holocene, raising the question of what was the response of the WAIS since LGM and into the Holocene. Terrestrial evidence is restricted to sparse coastal oasis and ice free mountains which archive limits of former ice advances. Mountain ranges flanking the Darwin-Hatherton glaciers exhibit well-defined moraines, weathering signatures, boulder rich plateaus and glacial tills, which preserve the evidence of advance and retreat of the ice sheet during previous glacial cycles. Previous studies suggest a WAIS at the LGM in this location to be at least 1,000 meters thicker than today. As part of the New Zealand Latitudinal Gradient Project along the Transantarctic, we collected samples for cosmogenic exposure dating at a) Lake Wellman area bordering the Hatherton Glacier, (b) Roadend Nunatak at the confluence of the Darwin and Hatherton glaciers and (c) Diamond Hill which is positioned at the intersection of the Ross Ice Shelf and Darwin Glacier outlet. While the technique of exposure dating is very successful in mid-latitude alpine glacier systems, it is more challenging in polar ice-sheet regions due to the prevalence of cold-based ice over-riding events and absence of outwash processes which removes glacially transported debris. Our glacial geomorphic survey from ice sheet contact edge (~850 masl) to mountain peak at 1600 masl together with a suite of 10Be and 26Al exposure ages, documents a pre-LGM ice volume at least 800 meters thicker than current ice levels which was established at least 2 million years ago. However a complex history of exposure and re-exposure of the ice free regions in this area is seen in accordance with advance and retreat of the ice sheets that feeds into the Darwin -Hatherton system. A cluster of mid-altitude boulders, located below a prominent moraine feature mapped previously as demarcating the LGM ice advance limits, have exposure ages ranging from 30 to 40 ka. Exposure ages for boulders just above the ice contact range from 1to 19 ka and allow an estimate of inheritance. Hence, we conclude that LGM ice volume was not as large as previously estimated and actually little different from what is observed today. These results raise rather serious questions about the implications of a reduced WAIS at the LGM, its effect on the development of the Ross Ice Shelf, and how the Antarctic ice sheets respond to global warming. J. O. Stone et al., Science v299, 99 (2003). A. Mackintosh, D. White, D. Fink, D. Gore et al, Geology, v 35; 551-554 (2007).

Modelling seasonal meltwater forcing of the velocity of land-terminating margins of the Greenland Ice Sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koziol, Conrad P.; Arnold, Neil

2018-03-01

Surface runoff at the margin of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) drains to the ice-sheet bed, leading to enhanced summer ice flow. Ice velocities show a pattern of early summer acceleration followed by mid-summer deceleration due to evolution of the subglacial hydrology system in response to meltwater forcing. Modelling the integrated hydrological-ice dynamics system to reproduce measured velocities at the ice margin remains a key challenge for validating the present understanding of the system and constraining the impact of increasing surface runoff rates on dynamic ice mass loss from the GrIS. Here we show that a multi-component model incorporating supraglacial, subglacial, and ice dynamic components applied to a land-terminating catchment in western Greenland produces modelled velocities which are in reasonable agreement with those observed in GPS records for three melt seasons of varying melt intensities. This provides numerical support for the hypothesis that the subglacial system develops analogously to alpine glaciers and supports recent model formulations capturing the transition between distributed and channelized states. The model shows the growth of efficient conduit-based drainage up-glacier from the ice sheet margin, which develops more extensively, and further inland, as melt intensity increases. This suggests current trends of decadal-timescale slowdown of ice velocities in the ablation zone may continue in the near future. The model results also show a strong scaling between average summer velocities and melt season intensity, particularly in the upper ablation area. Assuming winter velocities are not impacted by channelization, our model suggests an upper bound of a 25 % increase in annual surface velocities as surface melt increases to 4 × present levels.

Ice2sea - Estimating the future contribution of continental ice to sea-level rise - project summary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ford, Elaina; Vaughan, David

2013-04-01

Ice2sea brings together the EU's scientific and operational expertise from 24 leading institutions across Europe and beyond. Improved projections of the contribution of ice to sea-level rise produced by this major European-funded programme will inform the fifth IPCC report (due in September 2013). In 2007, the fourth Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report highlighted ice-sheets as the most significant remaining uncertainty in projections of sea-level rise. Understanding about the crucial ice-sheet effects was "too limited to assess their likelihood or provide a best estimate of an upper bound for sea-level rise". Ice2sea was created to address these issues - the project started in 2009 and is now drawing to a close, with our final symposium in May 2013, and final publicity activities around the IPCC report release in autumn 2013. Here we present a summary of the overall and key outputs of the ice2sea project.

New constraints on the structure and dynamics of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet from the joint IPY/Ice Bridge ICECAP aerogeophysical project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blankenship, D. D.; Young, D. A.; Siegert, M. J.; van Ommen, T. D.; Roberts, J. L.; Wright, A.; Warner, R. C.; Holt, J. W.; Young, N. W.; Le Meur, E.; Legresy, B.; Cavitte, M.; Icecap Team

2010-12-01

Ice within marine basins of East Antarctica, and their outlets, represent the ultimate limit on sea level change. The region of East Antarctica between the Ross Sea and Wilkes Land hosts a number of major basin, but has been poorly understood. Long range aerogeophysics from US, Australian and French stations, with significant British and IceBridge support, has, under the banner of the ICECAP project, greatly improved our knowledge of ice thickness, surface elevation, and crustal structure of the Wilkes and Aurora Subglacial Basins, as well as the Totten Glacier, Cook Ice Shelf, and Byrd Glacier. We will discuss the evolution of the Wilkes and Aurora Subglacial Basins, new constraints on the geometry of the major outlet glaciers, as well as our results from surface elevation change measurements over dynamic regions of the ice sheet. We will discuss the implications of our data for the presence of mid Pleistocene ice in central East Antarctica. Future directions for ICECAP will be discussed.

Reconstructing the last Irish Ice Sheet 2: a geomorphologically-driven model of ice sheet growth, retreat and dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Greenwood, Sarah L.; Clark, Chris D.

2009-12-01

The ice sheet that once covered Ireland has a long history of investigation. Much prior work focussed on localised evidence-based reconstructions and ice-marginal dynamics and chronologies, with less attention paid to an ice sheet wide view of the first order properties of the ice sheet: centres of mass, ice divide structure, ice flow geometry and behaviour and changes thereof. In this paper we focus on the latter aspect and use our new, countrywide glacial geomorphological mapping of the Irish landscape (>39 000 landforms), and our analysis of the palaeo-glaciological significance of observed landform assemblages (article Part 1), to build an ice sheet reconstruction yielding these fundamental ice sheet properties. We present a seven stage model of ice sheet evolution, from initiation to demise, in the form of palaeo-geographic maps. An early incursion of ice from Scotland likely coalesced with local ice caps and spread in a south-westerly direction 200 km across Ireland. A semi-independent Irish Ice Sheet was then established during ice sheet growth, with a branching ice divide structure whose main axis migrated up to 140 km from the west coast towards the east. Ice stream systems converging on Donegal Bay in the west and funnelling through the North Channel and Irish Sea Basin in the east emerge as major flow components of the maximum stages of glaciation. Ice cover is reconstructed as extending to the continental shelf break. The Irish Ice Sheet became autonomous (i.e. separate from the British Ice Sheet) during deglaciation and fragmented into multiple ice masses, each decaying towards the west. Final sites of demise were likely over the mountains of Donegal, Leitrim and Connemara. Patterns of growth and decay of the ice sheet are shown to be radically different: asynchronous and asymmetric in both spatial and temporal domains. We implicate collapse of the ice stream system in the North Channel - Irish Sea Basin in driving such asymmetry, since rapid collapse would sever the ties between the British and Irish Ice Sheets and drive flow configuration changes in response. Enhanced calving and flow acceleration in response to rising relative sea level is speculated to have undermined the integrity of the ice stream system, precipitating its collapse and driving the reconstructed pattern of ice sheet evolution.

Understanding calving dynamics of Greenland outlet glaciers by comparing calving laws in a 3D ice sheet model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choi, Y.; Morlighem, M.; Wood, M.; Bondzio, J. H.; Mouginot, J.

2017-12-01

Mass loss from marine terminating glaciers along coastal Greenland is a significant contributor to global sea-level rise. Calving is one of the important processes that control the dynamics, and therefore the discharge, of these glaciers. As glacier termini are exposed to warmer ocean currents, ocean-induced melt at the calving front increases, which may lead to glacier retreat and ice flow acceleration. It is therefore important to accurately parameterize calving in ice sheet models in order to improve the projections of ice sheet change. Several calving laws have been proposed, but most of them have been applied only to a specific region and have not been tested on other glaciers, while some others have only been implemented in one-dimensional flowline or vertical flowband models. Here, we test and compare several calving laws recently proposed in the literature using a 3D ice sheet model. Namely: the height-above-buoyancy criterion (Vieli et al., 2002), the crevasse-depth calving law (Benn et al., 2007), the eigencalving law (Levermann et al., 2012) and von Mises tensile stress calving law (Morlighem et al., 2016). We test these calving laws on Zachariae Isstrøm (Northeast), Upernavik (Central West) and Helheim (East) glaciers of Greenland. We compare the modeled ice front evolution to the observed retreat from Landsat data, and assess which calving law has the best predictive skills for each glacier. Overall, von Mises tensile stress calving laws is more satisfactory than others for most regions. This study shows that calving dynamics needs to be 3D in ice sheet models to account for the complex geometry and narrow fjords along the coast of Greenland. Comparing calving laws in a 3D model makes it possible to find missing mechanisms in each criterion and to improve existing calving laws in numerical ice sheet models, which could reduce uncertainties in future sea level rise projections.

The influence of meltwater on the thermal structure and flow of the Greenland Ice Sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poinar, Kristin

As the climate has warmed over the past decades, the amount of melt on the Greenland Ice Sheet has increased, and areas higher on the ice sheet have begun to melt regularly. This increase in melt has been hypothesized to enhance ice flow in myriad ways, including through basal lubrication and englacial refreezing. By developing and interpreting thermal ice-sheet models and analyzing remote sensing data, I evaluate the effect of these processes on ice flow and sea-level rise from the Greenland Ice Sheet. I first develop a thermal ice sheet model that is applicable to western Greenland. Key components of this model are its treatment of multiple phases (solid ice and liquid water) and its viscosity-dependent velocity field. I apply the model to Jakobshavn Isbrae, a fast-flowing outlet glacier. This is an important benchmark for my model, which I next apply to the topics outlined above. I use the thermal model to calculate the effect of englacial latent-heat transfer (meltwater refreezing within englacial features such as firn and crevasses) on ice dynamics in western Greenland. I find that in slow-moving areas, this can significantly warm the ice, but that englacial latent heat transfer has only a minimal effect on ice motion (60%) of the ice flux into the ocean, evidence of deep englacial warming is virtually absent. Thus, the effects of englacial latent heat transfer on ice motion are likely limited to slow-moving regions, which limits its importance to ice-sheet mass balance. Next, I couple a model for ice fracture to a modified version of my thermal model to calculate the depth and shape evolution of water-filled crevasses that form in crevasse fields. At most elevations and for typical water input volumes, crevasses penetrate to the top ~200--300 meters depth, warm the ice there by ~10°C, and may persist englacially, in a liquid state, for multiple decades. The surface hydrological network limits the amount of water that can reach most crevasses. We find that the depth and longevity of such crevasses is relatively robust to realistic increases in melt volumes over the coming century, so that we should not expect large changes in the englacial hydrological system under near-future climate regimes. These inferences put important constraints on the timescales of the Greenland supraglacial-to-subglacial water cycle. Finally, I assess the likelihood that higher-elevation surface melt could deliver water to regions where the bed is currently frozen. This hypothetical process is important because it could potentially greatly accelerate the seaward motion of the ice sheet. By analyzing surface strain rates and comparing them to my modeled basal temperature field, I find that this scenario is unlikely to occur: the conditions necessary to form surface-to-bed conduits are rarely found at higher elevations (~1600 meters) that may overlie frozen beds.

Probabilistic framework for assessing the ice sheet contribution to sea level change.

PubMed

Little, Christopher M; Urban, Nathan M; Oppenheimer, Michael

2013-02-26

Previous sea level rise (SLR) assessments have excluded the potential for dynamic ice loss over much of Greenland and Antarctica, and recently proposed "upper bounds" on Antarctica's 21st-century SLR contribution are derived principally from regions where present-day mass loss is concentrated (basin 15, or B15, drained largely by Pine Island, Thwaites, and Smith glaciers). Here, we present a probabilistic framework for assessing the ice sheet contribution to sea level change that explicitly accounts for mass balance uncertainty over an entire ice sheet. Applying this framework to Antarctica, we find that ongoing mass imbalances in non-B15 basins give an SLR contribution by 2100 that: (i) is comparable to projected changes in B15 discharge and Antarctica's surface mass balance, and (ii) varies widely depending on the subset of basins and observational dataset used in projections. Increases in discharge uncertainty, or decreases in the exceedance probability used to define an upper bound, increase the fractional contribution of non-B15 basins; even weak spatial correlations in future discharge growth rates markedly enhance this sensitivity. Although these projections rely on poorly constrained statistical parameters, they may be updated with observations and/or models at many spatial scales, facilitating a more comprehensive account of uncertainty that, if implemented, will improve future assessments.

Validation of Modelled Ice Dynamics of the Greenland Ice Sheet using Historical Forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoffman, M. J.; Price, S. F.; Howat, I. M.; Bonin, J. A.; Chambers, D. P.; Tezaur, I.; Kennedy, J. H.; Lenaerts, J.; Lipscomb, W. H.; Neumann, T.; Nowicki, S.; Perego, M.; Saba, J. L.; Salinger, A.; Guerber, J. R.

2015-12-01

Although ice sheet models are used for sea level rise projections, the degree to which these models have been validated by observations is fairly limited, due in part to the limited duration of the satellite observation era and the long adjustment time scales of ice sheets. Here we describe a validation framework for the Greenland Ice Sheet applied to the Community Ice Sheet Model by forcing the model annually with flux anomalies at the major outlet glaciers (Enderlin et al., 2014, observed from Landsat/ASTER/Operation IceBridge) and surface mass balance (van Angelen et al., 2013, calculated from RACMO2) for the period 1991-2012. The ice sheet model output is compared to ice surface elevation observations from ICESat and ice sheet mass change observations from GRACE. Early results show promise for assessing the performance of different model configurations. Additionally, we explore the effect of ice sheet model resolution on validation skill.

Future ice ages and the challenges related to final disposal of nuclear waste: The Greenland Ice Sheet Hydrology Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lehtinen, A.; Claesson-Liljedahl, L.; Näslund, J.-O.; Ruskeeniemi, T.

2009-04-01

A deep geological repository for nuclear waste is designed to keep radiotoxic material separated from mankind and the environment for several hundreds of thousands of years. Within this time perspective glacial conditions are expected in high latitudes/Canada and North Europe. Climate induced changes such as the growth of ice sheets and permafrost will influence and alter the ground surface and subsurface environment, which may impact repository safety. In order to understand how climate change, particularly cooling and glaciation, might affect a repository in the long term, the use of present-day analogues helps to reduce the uncertainties and support the assumptions made in safety assessments. There are major uncertainties concerning hydrological processes related to glacial conditions. The impact of glaciations on any planned repository is a key consideration when performing safety assessments as it is one of the strongest perturbations related to climate change in the long term. The main aspects that need to be further investigated include: 1) to what extent does the meltwater produced by an ice sheet penetrates into the bedrock; 2) what is the pressure situation under an ice sheet, driving ground water flow; 3) how much oxygenated water will reach repository depth; 4) to what depth does glacial meltwater penetrate into the bedrock ; 5)what chemical composition does such water has when and if it reaches repository depth; and 6) can taliks (unfrozen ground in a permafrost area) act as concentrated discharge points of deep groundwater potentially transporting radionuclides in case of repository failure? Field data is needed in order to achieve a better and integrated understanding of the problems discussed above. Thus, research in a natural analogue site in Greenland has been planned and initiated by the Finnish (Posiva), Swedish (SKB) and Canadian (NWMO) nuclear waste management companies. The Greenland ice sheet and the Kangerlussuaq area (west Greenland) provides a good analogue for this purpose due to similarities in geology (in the selected study area), and the climate conditions and ice sheet size in Kangerlussuaq resemble the expected conditions in Fennoscandia during future glaciations. In 2005 and 2008 reconnaissance field trips were made to Kangerlussuaq, which confirmed the suitability of the area for the planned studies. According to the present Work Programme the investigations will be carried out in 2009-2012. The project is divided into four subprojects (SPA, SPB, SPC and SPD) addressing specific and different topics at or in relation to the ice margin: SPA (ice sheet hydrology and glacial groundwater formation); SPB (subglacial ice sheet hydrology), SPC (hydrogeochemistry and hydrogeology) and SPD (periglacial environment: biosphere and permafrost). The main objectives of SPA and SPB are to gain a better process understanding of supra- and subglacial hydrology. Qualitative and quantitative knowledge of the mechanisms, rates and distribution of the melt water recharge through the ice down to the bed, location and extension of warm-based areas and hydraulic pressure conditions at the base are the key issues to be studied. This will be made by meteorological observations, GPS measurements, radar surveys, drilling through the ice sheet and by ice sheet modelling. SPC will further study the fate of melt water by extending the investigations into the bedrock. It is assumed that the high hydraulic pressures at the ice sheet bed force water into the fracture network prevailing in the bedrock. However, it is not known how the fracture network behaves under loading, what is the proportion of recharging water compared to the drainage through the bed sediments, what is the intrusion depth, how long the meltwater can sustain its oxic nature and what chemical composition the recharging water has when and if it reaches repository depth (400-700 m). SPC seeks to answer these questions by drilling and instrumenting boreholes drilled into the bedrock and below the ice sheet. SPD is aiming at describing and studying processes acting in the periglacial environment affected by permafrost conditions. The observations will be used within the safety assessment biosphere programs. From the acquired results we will obtain data, which will allow us to develop better conceptual and numerical models for quantitative analysis of ice sheet hydrology and dynamics, groundwater flow, groundwater chemistry and hydro-mechanical couplings during glacial periods, by reducing uncertainties and better constraining the boundary conditions used in the models. Finally, this project concerns the first in situ investigation of the vital parameters needed to achieve a holistic and realistic understanding of how an ice sheet may impact a deep geological repository for spent nuclear waste and will provide the necessary integrated view of ice sheet hydrology and groundwater flow/chemistry needed when executing safety assessments for the geological repositories in Sweden, Finland and Canada.

Explicit Simulation of Networks of Outlet Glaciers to Constrain Greenland's Sea Level Contribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ultee, E.; Bassis, J. N.

2017-12-01

Ice from the Greenland Ice Sheet drains to the ocean through hundreds of outlet glaciers, many of which are too small to be accurately resolved in continental-scale ice sheet models. Moreover, despite the fact that dynamic changes in Greenland outlet glaciers are currently responsible for about half of the ice sheet's contribution to global sea level, all but the largest are often excluded from major sea level assessments. We have previously developed and validated a simple model that simulates advance and retreat of networks of marine-terminating glaciers based on the perfect plastic approximation. Here we apply this model to a selection of forcing scenarios, representing both climate persistence and extreme scenarios, to constrain changes in calving flux from the most significant Greenland outlet glaciers. Our model can be implemented in standalone mode or as the calving module in a more sophisticated large-scale model, providing constraints on Greenland's future contribution to global sea level rise under a range of scenarios.

Modeling Antarctic Ice Sheet retreat in warm climates: a historical perspective.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pollard, D.; Deconto, R. M.; Gasson, E.

2016-12-01

Early modeling of Antarctic Ice Sheet size vs. climate focused on asymmetry between retreat and growth, with much greater warming needed to cause retreat from full ice cover, due to Height Mass Balance Feedback and albedo feedback. This led to a long-standing model-data conflict, with models needing 1000 to2000 ppmv atmospheric CO2 to produce retreat from full size, vs. proxy data of large ice fluctuations despite much lower CO2 since the Miocene.Subsequent modeling with marine ice physics found that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet could undergo repeated warm-period collapses with realistic past forcing. However, that yields only 3 to 7 m equivalent sea-level rise above modern, compared to 10 to 20 m or more suggested by some geologic data. Large subglacial basins in East Antarctica could be vulnerable to the same processes,but did not retreat in most models due to narrower and shallower sills.After recent modifications, some ice sheet models were able to produce warm-period collapse of major East Antarctic basins, with sea-level rise of up to 15 m. The modifications are (i) hydrofracturing by surface melt, and structural failure of ice cliffs, or (ii) numerical treatment at the grounding line. In these models, large retreat occurs both for past warmintervals, and also for future business-as-usual scenarios.Some interpretations of data in the late Oligocene and Miocene suggest yet larger fluctuations, between 50 to 100% of modern Antarctic size. That would require surface-melt driven retreat of some terrestrial East Antarctic ice, despite the hysteresis issue raised above. A recent study using a coupled climate-ice sheet model found that with a finer climate gridand more frequent coupling exchange, substantial retreat of terrestrial Antarctica can occur with 500 to 840 ppmv CO2, much lower than in earlier models. This will allow meaningful interactions between modeling and deeper-time geologic interpretations since the late Oligocene.

A new bed elevation model for the Weddell Sea sector of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jeofry, Hafeez; Ross, Neil; Corr, Hugh F. J.; Li, Jilu; Morlighem, Mathieu; Gogineni, Prasad; Siegert, Martin J.

2018-04-01

We present a new digital elevation model (DEM) of the bed, with a 1 km gridding, of the Weddell Sea (WS) sector of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS). The DEM has a total area of ˜ 125 000 km2 covering the Institute, Möller and Foundation ice streams, as well as the Bungenstock ice rise. In comparison with the Bedmap2 product, our DEM includes new aerogeophysical datasets acquired by the Center for Remote Sensing of Ice Sheets (CReSIS) through the NASA Operation IceBridge (OIB) program in 2012, 2014 and 2016. We also improve bed elevation information from the single largest existing dataset in the region, collected by the British Antarctic Survey (BAS) Polarimetric radar Airborne Science Instrument (PASIN) in 2010-2011, from the relatively crude measurements determined in the field for quality control purposes used in Bedmap2. While the gross form of the new DEM is similar to Bedmap2, there are some notable differences. For example, the position and size of a deep subglacial trough (˜ 2 km below sea level) between the ice-sheet interior and the grounding line of the Foundation Ice Stream have been redefined. From the revised DEM, we are able to better derive the expected routing of basal water and, by comparison with that calculated using Bedmap2, we are able to assess regions where hydraulic flow is sensitive to change. Given the potential vulnerability of this sector to ocean-induced melting at the grounding line, especially in light of the improved definition of the Foundation Ice Stream trough, our revised DEM will be of value to ice-sheet modelling in efforts to quantify future glaciological changes in the region and, from this, the potential impact on global sea level. The new 1 km bed elevation product of the WS sector can be found at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1035488.

Bedrock structure and the interpretation of palaeo ice stream footprints: examples from the Pleistocene British Ice Sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krabbendam, M.; Bradwell, T.

2009-04-01

To model past and future behaviour of ice sheets, a good understanding of both modern and ancient ice streams is required. The study of present-day ice streams provides detailed data of short-term dynamic changes, whilst the study of Pleistocene palaeo-ice streams can provide crucial constraints on the longer-term evolution of ice sheets. To date, palaeo-ice streams, such as the classical Dubawnt Lake palaeo-ice stream of the former Laurentide Ice Sheet, have been recognised largely on the basis of extremely elongate drumlins and megascale glacial lineations; all soft-sediment features. Whilst it appears that topographically unconstrained ice streams (eg. within the West Antarctic Ice Sheet) are generally underlain by deformable till, topographically constrained ice streams such as Jakobshavn Isbrae do not require deformable sediment and may occur on a bedrock-dominated bed. Analysis of DEM data and geomorphology and structural geology fieldwork in Northern Scotland and Northern England has shown the occurrence of highly streamlined bedforms in bedrock of the former base of topographically controlled palaeo-ice streams, which drained parts of the British Ice Sheet. The bedforms are predominantly bedrock megagrooves with asymmetric cross-profiles. In the Ullapool tributary of the Minch palaeo ice stream, bedrock megagrooves form the dominant evidence for ice streaming. The megagrooves are typically 5-15 m deep, 10-30 m wide and 500 - 3000 m long. Spacing of megagrooves is typically 100 - 200 m. In both study areas, the bedrock is strongly anisotropic, either consisting of thin-bedded strata or strongly foliated metasedimentary rocks, with the strata or foliation having a gentle dip. Megagrooves are best developed where the strike of the anisotropy is sub-parallel (within 10 - 20°) with palaeo ice flow. The bedrock in both areas has a well-developed, relatively densely spaced (< 1m), conjugate joint system. We suggest that asymmetric megagrooves are formed by "lateral plucking", facilitated by the combination of strong bedding/foliation and the joint pattern. Glacial erosion was laterally more effective than vertically; so that stepped faces subparallel to palaeo ice flow are enhanced rather that destroyed. We propose that: a) Lateral plucking is an effective mechanism to produce streamlined bedrock bedforms by fast ice flow, providing the bedrock and bedrock structure are suitable; b) some topographically controlled palaeo-ice stream beds are dominated by bedrock rather than soft-sediment; c) the recognition of palaeo-ice streams may be dependent on the type of bedrock and the orientation of bedrock structure with respect to palaeo ice flow; d) palaeo-ice stream footprints may have been underestimated in formerly glaciated areas.

Ocean forces Greenland and Greenland forces the ocean: a two-way exchange at Greenland's marine margins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Straneo, F.

2017-12-01

The widespread speed up of Greenland's glaciers, over the last two decades, was unpredicted, revealing major gaps in our understanding of how ice sheets respond to a changing climate. Increased submarine melting at the edge of glaciers has emerged as a key trigger - indicating that glacier/ocean exchanges must be accounted for in ice sheet variability reconstructions and predictions. In parallel, the increasing freshwater discharge into the ocean, associated with Greenland's ice loss, has the potential to impact the North Atlantic's circulation and climate. Thus glacier/ocean exchanges are also relevant to understanding drivers of past and future changes in the North Atlantic Ocean's circulation. Here, I present recent findings from observations collected at the edge of several Greenland glaciers that reveal how melting is caused by intrusions of warm, subtropical waters into the fjords and enhanced by the release of surface melt hundreds of meters below sea level. Similarly, hydrographic and tracer data collected at the glaciers' margins, and within the glacial fjords, reveal how Greenland meltwater are exported in the form of highly diluted glacially modified waters, often subsurface, and temporally lagged with respect to the meltwater release. These findings underline the need for improved representation of ice/ocean exchanges in models in order understand and predict the ice sheet's impact on the ocean and the ocean's impact on the ice sheet.

Ocean forces Greenland and Greenland forces the ocean: a two-way exchange at Greenland's marine margins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stanley, V.; Schoephoester, P.; Lodge, R. W. D.

2016-12-01

The widespread speed up of Greenland's glaciers, over the last two decades, was unpredicted, revealing major gaps in our understanding of how ice sheets respond to a changing climate. Increased submarine melting at the edge of glaciers has emerged as a key trigger - indicating that glacier/ocean exchanges must be accounted for in ice sheet variability reconstructions and predictions. In parallel, the increasing freshwater discharge into the ocean, associated with Greenland's ice loss, has the potential to impact the North Atlantic's circulation and climate. Thus glacier/ocean exchanges are also relevant to understanding drivers of past and future changes in the North Atlantic Ocean's circulation. Here, I present recent findings from observations collected at the edge of several Greenland glaciers that reveal how melting is caused by intrusions of warm, subtropical waters into the fjords and enhanced by the release of surface melt hundreds of meters below sea level. Similarly, hydrographic and tracer data collected at the glaciers' margins, and within the glacial fjords, reveal how Greenland meltwater are exported in the form of highly diluted glacially modified waters, often subsurface, and temporally lagged with respect to the meltwater release. These findings underline the need for improved representation of ice/ocean exchanges in models in order understand and predict the ice sheet's impact on the ocean and the ocean's impact on the ice sheet.

Antarctic glaciations under Pliocene climate conditions from numerical modeling and compilation of local field-based reconstructions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bernales, Jorge; Rogozhina, Irina; Greve, Ralf

2014-05-01

The mid-Pliocene (3.15 to 2.85 million years before present) is the most recent period in Earth's history when temperatures and CO2 concentrations were likely sustainedly higher than pre-industrial values. Furthermore, the positions of the continents and their sea-land distributions had already reached their present configuration, sharing some similarities with today's patterns of ocean circulation and vegetation distributions. Although significant differences exist -such as a peak sea level that could have been 22 ± 10 m higher than it is today and sea surface temperatures particularly warmer at higher latitudes, mid-Pliocene has been identified as an ideal interval for studying the climate system under conditions similar to those projected for the end of this century. Among the sources of uncertainty in the projections, the response of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) to warmer-than-today conditions seems to play a central role. Therefore, a better understanding of AIS's behavior during periods like the mid-Pliocene will provide valuable information that could help improve future predictions. For this purpose, we have compiled a wide range of local field-based reconstructions of the ice-sheet margin from Pliocene sediments (with the inclusions of organic matters such as, for instance, diatoms or palynoflora, or ice rafted debris), geochemical records, volcanic ashes and rocks, and geomorphology, and designed numerical experiments of the AIS dynamics during the mid-Pliocene warm period using the large-scale polythermal ice sheet-shelf model SICOPOLIS (Greve, 1997 [1]; Sato and Greve, 2012 [2]). The model is run with a horizontal resolution of 40 × 40 km by the climatology obtained from the PlioMIP Atmosphere Ocean Global Circulation Model experiments (Dolan et al., 2012 [3]). Parameters of the AIS model (e.g. ice calving, sub-ice shelf and surface ice melt, basal sliding, etc.) have initially been estimated using ice-sheet simulations driven by the present-day climate and ocean conditions and calibrated against available remote-sensed and in-situ observations. In our Pliocene experiments, we employ alternative parameterizations of sub-ice shelf and ice surface melting processes to test the likelihood of numerous controversial theories and reconstructions arguing for or against significant retreat of the East Antarctic ice sheet from the coasts (locally up to 450 km) in the mid-Pliocene. Finally, we assess the sensitivity of the modeled West Antarctic/Antarctic Peninsula ice geometry to the above parameters and emphasize a crucial role of surface mass balance model parameters in modeling the Pliocene ice sheet configuration in agreement with existing reconstructions on a regional scale. References [1] Greve, R. (1997). Application of a polythermal three-dimensional ice sheet model to the Greenland ice sheet: response to steady-state and transient climate scenarios. Journal of Climate, 10(5), 901-918. [2] Sato, T., and Greve, R. (2012). Sensitivity experiments for the Antarctic ice sheet with varied sub-ice-shelf melting rates. Annals of Glaciology, 53(60), 221-228. [3] Dolan, A. M., Koenig, S. J., Hill, D. J., Haywood, A. M., and DeConto, R. M. (2012). Pliocene Ice Sheet Modelling Intercomparison Project (PLISMIP)-experimental design. Geoscientific Model Development, 5(4), 963-974.

Reconstructing the post-LGM decay of the Eurasian Ice Sheets with Ice Sheet Models; data-model comparison and focus on the Storfjorden (Svalbard) ice stream dynamics history

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petrini, Michele; Kirchner, Nina; Colleoni, Florence; Camerlenghi, Angelo; Rebesco, Michele; Lucchi, Renata G.; Forte, Emanuele; Colucci, Renato R.

2017-04-01

The challenge of reconstructing palaeo-ice sheets past growth and decay represent a critical task to better understand mechanisms of present and future global climate change. Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), and the subsequent deglaciation until Pre-Industrial time (PI) represent an excellent testing ground for numerical Ice Sheet Models (ISMs), due to the abundant data available that can be used in an ISM as boundary conditions, forcings or constraints to test the ISMs results. In our study, we simulate with ISMs the post-LGM decay of the Eurasian Ice Sheets, with a focus on the marine-based Svalbard-Barents Sea-Kara Sea Ice Sheet. In particular, we aim to reconstruct the Storfjorden ice stream dynamics history by comparing the model results with the marine geological data (MSGLs, GZWs, sediment cores analysis) available from the area, e.g., Pedrosa et al. 2011, Rebesco et al. 2011, 2013, Lucchi et al. 2013. Two hybrid SIA/SSA ISMs are employed, GRISLI, Ritz et al. 2001, and PSU, Pollard&DeConto 2012. These models differ mainly in the complexity with which grounding line migration is treated. Climate forcing is interpolated by means of climate indexes between LGM and PI climate. Regional climate indexes are constructed based on the non-accelerated deglaciation transient experiment carried out with CCSM3, Liu et al. 2009. Indexes representative of the climate evolution over Siberia, Svalbard and Scandinavia are employed. The impact of such refined representation as opposed to the common use of the NGRIP δ18O index for transient experiments is analysed. In this study, the ice-ocean interaction is crucial to reconstruct the Storfjorden ice stream dynamics history. To investigate the sensitivity of the ice shelf/stream retreat to ocean temperature, we allow for a space-time variation of basal melting under the ice shelves by testing two-equations implementations based on Martin et al. 2011 forced with simulated ocean temperature and salinity from the TraCE-21ka coupled climate simulation. In this presentation, we will show work in progress, address open issues, and sketch future work. In particular, we invite the community to suggest possibilities for model-data comparison and integration. Liu, Z., Otto-Bliesner, B.L., He, F., Brady, E.C., Tomas, R., Clark, P.U., Carlson, A.E., Lynch-Stieglitz, J., Curry, W., Brook, E. and Erickson, D., 2009. Transient simulation of last deglaciation with a new mechanism for Bólling-Alleród warming. Science, 325(5938), pp.310-314. Lucchi, R.G., Camerlenghi, A., Rebesco, M., Colmenero-Hidalgo, E., Sierro, F.J., Sagnotti, L., Urgeles, R., Melis, R., Morigi, C., Bárcena, M.A. and Giorgetti, G., 2013. Postglacial sedimentary processes on the Storfjorden and Kveithola trough mouth fans: Significance of extreme glacimarine sedimentation. Global and planetary change, 111, pp.309-326. Martin, M.A., Winkelmann, R., Haseloff, M., Albrecht, T., Bueler, E., Khroulev, C. and Levermann, A., 2011. The Potsdam Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM-PIK)-Part 2: Dynamic equilibrium simulation of the Antarctic ice sheet. The Cryosphere, 5(3), pp.727-740. Pedrosa, M.T., Camerlenghi, A., De Mol, B., Urgeles, R., Rebesco, M. and Lucchi, R.G., 2011. Seabed morphology and shallow sedimentary structure of the Storfjorden and Kveithola trough-mouth fans (north west Barents Sea). Marine Geology, 286(1), pp.65-81. Pollard, D. and DeConto, R.M., 2012. Description of a hybrid ice sheet-shelf model, and application to Antarctica. Geoscientific Model Development, 5(5), pp.1273-1295. Rebesco, M., Liu, Y., Camerlenghi, A., Winsborrow, M., Laberg, J.S., Caburlotto, A., Diviacco, P., Accettella, D., Sauli, C., Wardell, N. and Tomini, I., 2011. Deglaciation of the western margin of the Barents Sea Ice Sheet-a swath bathymetric and sub-bottom seismic study from the Kveithola Trough. Marine Geology, 279(1), pp.141-147. Rebesco, M., Laberg, J., Pedrosa, M., Camerlenghi, A., Lucchi, R., Zgur, F. and Wardell, N., 2013. Onset and growth of Trough-Mouth Fans on the North-Western Barents Sea margin e implications for the evolution of the Barents Sea/Svalbard Ice Sheet. Quaternary Science Reviews, 30, pp.1-8. Ritz, C., Rommelaere, V. and Dumas, C., 2001. Modeling the evolution of Antarctic ice sheet over the last 420,000 years: Implications for altitude changes in the Vostok region. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 106(D23), pp.31943-31964.

In Pursuit of Analogs for Europa's Dynamics & Potential Habitats

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmidt, Britney E.; Blankenship, D. D.; Greenbaum, J. S.; Young, D. A.

2010-10-01

Future Europa exploration will seek to characterize the distribution of shallow subsurface water as well as to understand the formation of surface features through dynamic ice-shell processes. Radar sounding will be a critical tool for imaging these features, and should be of primary interest to the astrobiology community for understanding how and where life might arise on Europa. To develop successful instrumentation and data interpretation techniques for exploring Europa, we must leverage analogous terrestrial environments and processes. Airborne ice penetrating radar is now a mature tool in terrestrial studies of Earth's ice sheets, and orbital examples have been successfully deployed at Earth's Moon and Mars. It is a distinct possibility that water within or just below the ice on Europa has played a role in forming some of its dynamic terrain. Observations of rotated blocks and dark floor materials may suggest that brines existed in the near subsurface and enabled the formation of such features. The University of Texas High Capability Airborne Radar Sounder (HiCARS) developed to study Antarctic ice sheet dynamics has been configured to test observation scenarios for Europa. We discuss recent results from the 60 MHz HiCARS system over brine infiltrated Antarctic marine ice as an analog for processes affecting the formation of pits and chaos. Basal melt occurring below terrestrial marine ice is directly analogous to processes that may operate on Europa if the shell is "thin,” and will be similar to processes occurring instead within the ice sheet in the case of a thicker, multi-layer ice sheet where enriched brines may remain liquid within the shell. A key site for further investigation of conductive and "convective” ices is found in the polythermal glaciers in the Arctic, and the case for this exploration will be illuminated.

The safety band of Antarctic ice shelves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fürst, Johannes Jakob; Durand, Gaël; Gillet-Chaulet, Fabien; Tavard, Laure; Rankl, Melanie; Braun, Matthias; Gagliardini, Olivier

2016-05-01

The floating ice shelves along the seaboard of the Antarctic ice sheet restrain the outflow of upstream grounded ice. Removal of these ice shelves, as shown by past ice-shelf recession and break-up, accelerates the outflow, which adds to sea-level rise. A key question in predicting future outflow is to quantify the extent of calving that might precondition other dynamic consequences and lead to loss of ice-shelf restraint. Here we delineate frontal areas that we label as `passive shelf ice’ and that can be removed without major dynamic implications, with contrasting results across the continent. The ice shelves in the Amundsen and Bellingshausen seas have limited or almost no `passive’ portion, which implies that further retreat of current ice-shelf fronts will yield important dynamic consequences. This region is particularly vulnerable as ice shelves have been thinning at high rates for two decades and as upstream grounded ice rests on a backward sloping bed, a precondition to marine ice-sheet instability. In contrast to these ice shelves, Larsen C Ice Shelf, in the Weddell Sea, exhibits a large `passive’ frontal area, suggesting that the imminent calving of a vast tabular iceberg will be unlikely to instantly produce much dynamic change.

Eemian interglacial reconstructed from a Greenland folded ice core.

PubMed

2013-01-24

Efforts to extract a Greenland ice core with a complete record of the Eemian interglacial (130,000 to 115,000 years ago) have until now been unsuccessful. The response of the Greenland ice sheet to the warmer-than-present climate of the Eemian has thus remained unclear. Here we present the new North Greenland Eemian Ice Drilling ('NEEM') ice core and show only a modest ice-sheet response to the strong warming in the early Eemian. We reconstructed the Eemian record from folded ice using globally homogeneous parameters known from dated Greenland and Antarctic ice-core records. On the basis of water stable isotopes, NEEM surface temperatures after the onset of the Eemian (126,000 years ago) peaked at 8 ± 4 degrees Celsius above the mean of the past millennium, followed by a gradual cooling that was probably driven by the decreasing summer insolation. Between 128,000 and 122,000 years ago, the thickness of the northwest Greenland ice sheet decreased by 400 ± 250 metres, reaching surface elevations 122,000 years ago of 130 ± 300 metres lower than the present. Extensive surface melt occurred at the NEEM site during the Eemian, a phenomenon witnessed when melt layers formed again at NEEM during the exceptional heat of July 2012. With additional warming, surface melt might become more common in the future.

Uncertainties in the Antarctic Ice Sheet Contribution to Sea Level Rise: Exploration of Model Response to Errors in Climate Forcing, Boundary Conditions, and Internal Parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schlegel, N.; Seroussi, H. L.; Boening, C.; Larour, E. Y.; Limonadi, D.; Schodlok, M.; Watkins, M. M.

2017-12-01

The Jet Propulsion Laboratory-University of California at Irvine Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM) is a thermo-mechanical 2D/3D parallelized finite element software used to physically model the continental-scale flow of ice at high resolutions. Embedded into ISSM are uncertainty quantification (UQ) tools, based on the Design Analysis Kit for Optimization and Terascale Applications (DAKOTA) software. ISSM-DAKOTA offers various UQ methods for the investigation of how errors in model input impact uncertainty in simulation results. We utilize these tools to regionally sample model input and key parameters, based on specified bounds of uncertainty, and run a suite of continental-scale 100-year ISSM forward simulations of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Resulting diagnostics (e.g., spread in local mass flux and regional mass balance) inform our conclusion about which parameters and/or forcing has the greatest impact on century-scale model simulations of ice sheet evolution. The results allow us to prioritize the key datasets and measurements that are critical for the minimization of ice sheet model uncertainty. Overall, we find that Antartica's total sea level contribution is strongly affected by grounding line retreat, which is driven by the magnitude of ice shelf basal melt rates and by errors in bedrock topography. In addition, results suggest that after 100 years of simulation, Thwaites glacier is the most significant source of model uncertainty, and its drainage basin has the largest potential for future sea level contribution. This work is performed at and supported by the California Institute of Technology's Jet Propulsion Laboratory. Supercomputing time is also supported through a contract with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Cryosphere program.

Late Holocene spatio-temporal variability of the south Greenland Ice Sheet and adjacent mountain glaciers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sinclair, G.; Carlson, A. E.; Rood, D. H.; Axford, Y.

2017-12-01

The late Holocene, with its spatially complex pattern of centennial-scale climate variation, is an ideal time period to test the response of the cryosphere to atmospheric and oceanic temperature changes. The south Greenland Ice Sheet (sGrIS), with its proximity to areas of North Atlantic Deep Water formation and a large spectrum of glaciological regimes over a relatively small area, provides an excellent location to examine the spatial heterogeneity of ice-sheet and glacier responses to climate change. Here, we will present 50 Be-10 surface exposure ages from eight moraines in six locations around the margin of the sGrIS. These moraines are located just outboard of historical moraines, and will therefore allow us to constrain the timing of the most extensive prehistoric late-Holocene advance and retreat of ice margins draining the sGrIS and independent valley glaciers. The dataset includes both marine- and land-terminating glaciers draining the sGrIS, the low-altitude Qassimiut lobe, the high-altitude alpine Julianhåb ice cap and isolated valley glaciers. This diverse dataset will allow us to determine to what extent late-Holocene centennial-scale behavior of the ice-sheet and glacier margins were synchronous, perhaps in response to an external climate forcing, or more stochastic, governed instead by local factors such as basal thermal regime, bedrock topography, or microclimates. This has implications for understanding the forcings and responses of cryospheric changes at timescales relevant to human society. In addition to providing context for paleoclimatic and glacial geologic investigations, this work will inform future sea-level projections by providing targets for validating high-resolution ice-sheet and glacier models.

Sea Level Rise in the 21st Century: Will projections ever become reliable?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Willis, J. K.

2014-12-01

Global sea level rise has the potential to become one of the most costly and least well predicted impacts of human caused climate change. Unlike global surface temperature, the spread of possible scenarios (as little as 1 foot and as much as 6 feet by 2100) is not due to uncertainty about future rates of greenhouse gas emissions, but rather by a fundamental lack of knowledge about how the major ice sheets will behave in a warming climate. Clearly improved projections of sea level rise should become a major research priority in the next decade. At present, controversial techniques based on comparison with historical analogs and rates of recent warming and sea level rise are often used to create projections for the 21st Century. However, many in the scientific community feel that reliable projections must be based on a sound knowledge of the physics governing sea level rise, and particularly ice sheet behavior. In particular, large portions of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and parts of the Greenland Ice Sheet rest on solid earth that sits below sea level. These regions may be threatened, not by atmospheric warming or changes in precipitation, but rather by direct forcing from the ocean. Fledgling efforts to understand these ocean ice interactions are already underway, as are efforts to make improved models of ice sheet behavior. However a great deal of work is still needed before widely accepted projections of sea level rise become a reality. This paper will highlight the hurdles to making such projections today and suggest ways forward in this critical area of research.

Coupled Long-Term Evolution of Climate and the Greenland Ice Sheet During the Last Interglacial and Implications for the Future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otto-Bliesner, B. L.; Lofverstrom, M.; Lipscomb, W.; Fyke, J. G.; Marshall, S.; Sacks, B.

2017-12-01

The Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) is expected to contribute increasingly to global sea level rise by the end of this century, and potentially several meters in this millennium, but still with considerable uncertainty. The rate of Greenland melt will impact on regional sea levels. The Last Interglacial (LIG, 129 ka to 116 ka) is recognized as an important period for testing our knowledge of climate-ice sheet interactions in warm climate states. Although the LIG was discussed in the First Assessment Report of the IPCC, it gained more prominence in the IPCC Fourth and Fifth Assessment (AR4 and AR5) with reconstructions highlighting that global mean sea level was at least 5 m higher (but probably no more than 10 m higher) than present for several thousand years during the LIG. Model results assessed for the AR5 suggest a sea level contribution of 1.4 to 4.3 m from the GrIS. These model simulations, though, did not include all the feedbacks of the climate system and the GrIS. Here, we examine the response of the Arctic climate system and the GrIS in simulations with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) fully coupled to the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM), using a surface energy balance scheme and without bias corrections. The analysis focuses on how the GrIS responds to the imposed high boreal summer insolation of the LIG and in addition, to the long-term feedbacks of high-latitude vegetation changes. Results will highlight the evolution of the ice sheet and the surface mass balance (patterns of ablation and accumulation) as compared to data-based reconstructions for the LIG. We conclude with a discussion on how the LIG may be informative as a potential process analogue for the GrIS response for future centuries to come.

Ice sheet margins and ice shelves

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thomas, R. H.

1984-01-01

The effect of climate warming on the size of ice sheet margins in polar regions is considered. Particular attention is given to the possibility of a rapid response to warming on the order of tens to hundreds of years. It is found that the early response of the polar regions to climate warming would be an increase in the area of summer melt on the ice sheets and ice shelves. For sufficiently large warming (5-10C) the delayed effects would include the breakup of the ice shelves by an increase in ice drainage rates, particularly from the ice sheets. On the basis of published data for periodic changes in the thickness and melting rates of the marine ice sheets and fjord glaciers in Greenland and Antarctica, it is shown that the rate of retreat (or advance) of an ice sheet is primarily determined by: bedrock topography; the basal conditions of the grounded ice sheet; and the ice shelf condition downstream of the grounding line. A program of satellite and ground measurements to monitor the state of ice sheet equilibrium is recommended.

Antarctic ice sheet thickness estimation using the horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio method with single-station seismic ambient noise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, Peng; Li, Zhiwei; Li, Fei; Yang, Yuande; Hao, Weifeng; Bao, Feng

2018-03-01

We report on a successful application of the horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio (H / V) method, generally used to investigate the subsurface velocity structures of the shallow crust, to estimate the Antarctic ice sheet thickness for the first time. Using three-component, five-day long, seismic ambient noise records gathered from more than 60 temporary seismic stations located on the Antarctic ice sheet, the ice thickness measured at each station has comparable accuracy to the Bedmap2 database. Preliminary analysis revealed that 60 out of 65 seismic stations on the ice sheet obtained clear peak frequencies (f0) related to the ice sheet thickness in the H / V spectrum. Thus, assuming that the isotropic ice layer lies atop a high velocity half-space bedrock, the ice sheet thickness can be calculated by a simple approximation formula. About half of the calculated ice sheet thicknesses were consistent with the Bedmap2 ice thickness values. To further improve the reliability of ice thickness measurements, two-type models were built to fit the observed H / V spectrum through non-linear inversion. The two-type models represent the isotropic structures of single- and two-layer ice sheets, and the latter depicts the non-uniform, layered characteristics of the ice sheet widely distributed in Antarctica. The inversion results suggest that the ice thicknesses derived from the two-layer ice models were in good concurrence with the Bedmap2 ice thickness database, and that ice thickness differences between the two were within 300 m at almost all stations. Our results support previous finding that the Antarctic ice sheet is stratified. Extensive data processing indicates that the time length of seismic ambient noise records can be shortened to two hours for reliable ice sheet thickness estimation using the H / V method. This study extends the application fields of the H / V method and provides an effective and independent way to measure ice sheet thickness in Antarctica.

Enhanced ice sheet melting driven by volcanic eruptions during the last deglaciation.

PubMed

Muschitiello, Francesco; Pausata, Francesco S R; Lea, James M; Mair, Douglas W F; Wohlfarth, Barbara

2017-10-24

Volcanic eruptions can impact the mass balance of ice sheets through changes in climate and the radiative properties of the ice. Yet, empirical evidence highlighting the sensitivity of ancient ice sheets to volcanism is scarce. Here we present an exceptionally well-dated annual glacial varve chronology recording the melting history of the Fennoscandian Ice Sheet at the end of the last deglaciation (∼13,200-12,000 years ago). Our data indicate that abrupt ice melting events coincide with volcanogenic aerosol emissions recorded in Greenland ice cores. We suggest that enhanced ice sheet runoff is primarily associated with albedo effects due to deposition of ash sourced from high-latitude volcanic eruptions. Climate and snowpack mass-balance simulations show evidence for enhanced ice sheet runoff under volcanically forced conditions despite atmospheric cooling. The sensitivity of past ice sheets to volcanic ashfall highlights the need for an accurate coupling between atmosphere and ice sheet components in climate models.

The Impact of Geothermal Heat on the Scandinavian Ice Sheet's LGM Extent

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Szuman, Izabela; Ewertowski, Marek W.; Kalita, Jakub Z.

2016-04-01

The last Scandinavian ice sheet attained its most southern extent over Poland and Germany, protruding c. 200 km south of the main ice sheet mass. There are number of factors that may control ice sheet dynamics and extent. One of the less recognised is geothermal heat, which is heat that is supplied to the base of the ice sheet. A heat at the ice/bed interface plays a crucial role in controlling ice sheet stability, as well as impacting basal temperatures, melting, and ice flow velocities. However, the influence of geothermal heat is still virtually neglected in reconstructions and modelling of paleo-ice sheets behaviour. Only in a few papers is geothermal heat recalled though often in the context of past climatic conditions. Thus, the major question is if and how spatial differences in geothermal heat had influenced paleo-ice sheet dynamics and in consequence their extent. Here, we assumed that the configuration of the ice sheet along its southern margin was moderately to strongly correlated with geothermal heat for Poland and non or negatively correlated for Germany.

Widespread Refreezing of Both Surface and Basal Melt Water Beneath the Greenland Ice Sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bell, R. E.; Tinto, K. J.; Das, I.; Wolovick, M.; Chu, W.; Creyts, T. T.; Frearson, N.

2013-12-01

The isotopically and chemically distinct, bubble-free ice observed along the Greenland Ice Sheet margin both in the Russell Glacier and north of Jacobshavn must have formed when water froze from subglacial networks. Where this refreezing occurs and what impact it has on ice sheet processes remain unclear. We use airborne radar data to demonstrate that freeze-on to the ice sheet base and associated deformation produce large ice units up to 700 m thick throughout northern Greenland. Along the ice sheet margin, in the ablation zone, surface meltwater, delivered via moulins, refreezes to the ice sheet base over rugged topography. In the interior, water melted from the ice sheet base is refrozen and surrounded by folded ice. A significant fraction of the ice sheet is modified by basal freeze-on and associated deformation. For the Eqip and Petermann catchments, representing the ice sheet margin and interior respectively, extensive airborne radar datasets show that 10%-13% of the base of the ice sheet and up to a third of the catchment width is modified by basal freeze-on. The interior units develop over relatively subdued topography with modest water flux from basal melt where conductive cooling likely dominates. Steps in the bed topography associated with subglacial valley networks may foster glaciohydraulic supercooling. The ablation zone units develop where both surface melt and crevassing are widespread and large volumes of surface meltwater will reach the base of the ice sheet. The relatively steep topography at the upslope edge of the ablation zone units combined with the larger water flux suggests that supercooling plays a greater role in their formation. The ice qualities of the ablation zone units should reflect the relatively fresh surface melt whereas the chemistry of the interior units should reflect solute-rich basal melt. Changes in basal conditions such as the presence of till patches may contribute to the formation of the large basal units near the Northeast Ice Stream. The contrasting rheology of glacial and interglacial ice may also enhance the deformation associated with freeze-on beneath large ice sheets. The occurrence of basal units both in the ice sheet interior and in the thermally very different ablation zone indicates refreezing is widespread and can occur in many environments beneath an ice sheet. This process appears to influence the morphology and behavior of the ice sheet from top to bottom.

Windblown Pliocene diatoms and East Antarctic Ice Sheet retreat

PubMed Central

Scherer, Reed P.; DeConto, Robert M.; Pollard, David; Alley, Richard B.

2016-01-01

Marine diatoms in tillites along the Transantarctic Mountains (TAMs) have been used to suggest a diminished East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) during Pliocene warm periods. Updated ice-sheet modelling shows significant Pliocene EAIS retreat, creating marine embayments into the Wilkes and Aurora basins that were conducive to high diatom productivity and rapid accumulation of diatomaceous sediments. Here we show that subsequent isostatic uplift exposed accumulated unconsolidated marine deposits to wind erosion. We report new atmospheric modelling utilizing Pliocene climate and derived Antarctic landscapes indicating that prevailing mid-altitude winds transported diatoms towards the TAMs, dominantly from extensive emerged coastal deposits of the Aurora Basin. This result unifies leading ideas from competing sides of a contentious debate about the origin of the diatoms in the TAMs and their link to EAIS history, supporting the view that parts of the EAIS are vulnerable to relatively modest warming, with possible implications for future sea-level rise. PMID:27649516

Organic carbon export from the Greenland Ice Sheet: sources, sinks and downstream fluxes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wadham, J. L.; Lawson, E.; Tranter, M.; Stibal, M.; Telling, J.; Lis, G. P.; Nienow, P. W.; Anesio, A. M.; Butler, C. E.

2012-12-01

Runoff from small glacier systems has been shown to contain dissolved organic carbon (DOC) rich in low molecular weight (LMW), and hence more labile forms, designating glaciers as an important source of carbon for downstream heterotrophic activity. Here we assess glacier surfaces as potential sources of labile DOC to downstream ecosystems, presenting data from a wide range of glacier systems to determine sources and sinks of DOC in glacial and proglacial systems. We subsequently focus upon the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) which is the largest source of glacial runoff at present (400 km3 yr-1), with predicted increases in future decades. We report high fluxes of particulate organic carbon (POC), DOC and LMW labile fractions from a large GrIS catchment during two contrasting melt seasons. POC dominates OC export, is sourced from the ice sheet bed and contains a significant bioreactive component (~10% carbohydrates). The LMW-DOC "labile" fraction derives almost entirely from microbial activity on the ice sheet surface, which is supported by data from glacier systems also presented here. Annual fluxes of DOC, POC and labile components were lower in 2010 than 2009, despite a ~2 fold increase in runoff fluxes in 2010, suggesting production-limited DOC/POC sources. Scaled to the entire ice sheet, combined DOC and POC fluxes are of a similar order of magnitude to other large Arctic river systems and may represent an important source of organic carbon to the North Atlantic, Greenland and Labrador Seas.

How Will Sea Ice Loss Affect the Greenland Ice Sheet? On the Puzzling Features of Greenland Ice-Core Isotopic Composition

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pausata, Francesco S. R.; Legrande, Allegra N.; Roberts, William H. G.

2016-01-01

The modern cryosphere, Earth's frozen water regime, is in fast transition. Greenland ice cores show how fast theses changes can be, presenting evidence of up to 15 C warming events over timescales of less than a decade. These events, called Dansgaard/Oeschger (D/O) events, are believed to be associated with rapid changes in Arctic sea ice, although the underlying mechanisms are still unclear. The modern demise of Arctic sea ice may, in turn, instigate abrupt changes on the Greenland Ice Sheet. The Arctic Sea Ice and Greenland Ice Sheet Sensitivity (Ice2Ice Chttps://ice2ice.b.uib.noD) initiative, sponsored by the European Research Council, seeks to quantify these past rapid changes to improve our understanding of what the future may hold for the Arctic. Twenty scientists gathered in Copenhagen as part of this initiative to discuss the most recent observational, technological, and model developments toward quantifying the mechanisms behind past climate changes in Greenland. Much of the discussion focused on the causes behind the changes in stable water isotopes recorded in ice cores. The participants discussed sources of variability for stable water isotopes and framed ways that new studies could improve understanding of modern climate. The participants also discussed how climate models could provide insights into the relative roles of local and nonlocal processes in affecting stable water isotopes within the Greenland Ice Sheet. Presentations of modeling results showed how a change in the source or seasonality of precipitation could occur not only between glacial and modern climates but also between abrupt events. Recent fieldwork campaigns illustrate an important role of stable isotopes in atmospheric vapor and diffusion in the final stable isotope signal in ice. Further, indications from recent fieldwork campaigns illustrate an important role of stable isotopes in atmospheric vapor and diffusion in the final stable isotope signal in ice. This feature complicates the quantitative interpretation of ice core signals but also makes the stable ice isotope signal a more robust regional indicator of climate, speakers noted. Meeting participants agreed that to further our understanding of these relationships, we need more process-focused field and laboratory campaigns.

Initiation and long-term instability of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet.

PubMed

Gulick, Sean P S; Shevenell, Amelia E; Montelli, Aleksandr; Fernandez, Rodrigo; Smith, Catherine; Warny, Sophie; Bohaty, Steven M; Sjunneskog, Charlotte; Leventer, Amy; Frederick, Bruce; Blankenship, Donald D

2017-12-13

Antarctica's continental-scale ice sheets have evolved over the past 50 million years. However, the dearth of ice-proximal geological records limits our understanding of past East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) behaviour and thus our ability to evaluate its response to ongoing environmental change. The EAIS is marine-terminating and grounded below sea level within the Aurora subglacial basin, indicating that this catchment, which drains ice to the Sabrina Coast, may be sensitive to climate perturbations. Here we show, using marine geological and geophysical data from the continental shelf seaward of the Aurora subglacial basin, that marine-terminating glaciers existed at the Sabrina Coast by the early to middle Eocene epoch. This finding implies the existence of substantial ice volume in the Aurora subglacial basin before continental-scale ice sheets were established about 34 million years ago. Subsequently, ice advanced across and retreated from the Sabrina Coast continental shelf at least 11 times during the Oligocene and Miocene epochs. Tunnel valleys associated with half of these glaciations indicate that a surface-meltwater-rich sub-polar glacial system existed under climate conditions similar to those anticipated with continued anthropogenic warming. Cooling since the late Miocene resulted in an expanded polar EAIS and a limited glacial response to Pliocene warmth in the Aurora subglacial basin catchment. Geological records from the Sabrina Coast shelf indicate that, in addition to ocean temperature, atmospheric temperature and surface-derived meltwater influenced East Antarctic ice mass balance under warmer-than-present climate conditions. Our results imply a dynamic EAIS response with continued anthropogenic warming and suggest that the EAIS contribution to future global sea-level projections may be under-estimated.

Initiation and long-term instability of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gulick, Sean P. S.; Shevenell, Amelia E.; Montelli, Aleksandr; Fernandez, Rodrigo; Smith, Catherine; Warny, Sophie; Bohaty, Steven M.; Sjunneskog, Charlotte; Leventer, Amy; Frederick, Bruce; Blankenship, Donald D.

2017-12-01

Antarctica’s continental-scale ice sheets have evolved over the past 50 million years. However, the dearth of ice-proximal geological records limits our understanding of past East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) behaviour and thus our ability to evaluate its response to ongoing environmental change. The EAIS is marine-terminating and grounded below sea level within the Aurora subglacial basin, indicating that this catchment, which drains ice to the Sabrina Coast, may be sensitive to climate perturbations. Here we show, using marine geological and geophysical data from the continental shelf seaward of the Aurora subglacial basin, that marine-terminating glaciers existed at the Sabrina Coast by the early to middle Eocene epoch. This finding implies the existence of substantial ice volume in the Aurora subglacial basin before continental-scale ice sheets were established about 34 million years ago. Subsequently, ice advanced across and retreated from the Sabrina Coast continental shelf at least 11 times during the Oligocene and Miocene epochs. Tunnel valleys associated with half of these glaciations indicate that a surface-meltwater-rich sub-polar glacial system existed under climate conditions similar to those anticipated with continued anthropogenic warming. Cooling since the late Miocene resulted in an expanded polar EAIS and a limited glacial response to Pliocene warmth in the Aurora subglacial basin catchment. Geological records from the Sabrina Coast shelf indicate that, in addition to ocean temperature, atmospheric temperature and surface-derived meltwater influenced East Antarctic ice mass balance under warmer-than-present climate conditions. Our results imply a dynamic EAIS response with continued anthropogenic warming and suggest that the EAIS contribution to future global sea-level projections may be under-estimated.

Future sea-level rise from Greenland's main outlet glaciers in a warming climate.

PubMed

Nick, Faezeh M; Vieli, Andreas; Andersen, Morten Langer; Joughin, Ian; Payne, Antony; Edwards, Tamsin L; Pattyn, Frank; van de Wal, Roderik S W

2013-05-09

Over the past decade, ice loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet increased as a result of both increased surface melting and ice discharge to the ocean. The latter is controlled by the acceleration of ice flow and subsequent thinning of fast-flowing marine-terminating outlet glaciers. Quantifying the future dynamic contribution of such glaciers to sea-level rise (SLR) remains a major challenge because outlet glacier dynamics are poorly understood. Here we present a glacier flow model that includes a fully dynamic treatment of marine termini. We use this model to simulate behaviour of four major marine-terminating outlet glaciers, which collectively drain about 22 per cent of the Greenland Ice Sheet. Using atmospheric and oceanic forcing from a mid-range future warming scenario that predicts warming by 2.8 degrees Celsius by 2100, we project a contribution of 19 to 30 millimetres to SLR from these glaciers by 2200. This contribution is largely (80 per cent) dynamic in origin and is caused by several episodic retreats past overdeepenings in outlet glacier troughs. After initial increases, however, dynamic losses from these four outlets remain relatively constant and contribute to SLR individually at rates of about 0.01 to 0.06 millimetres per year. These rates correspond to ice fluxes that are less than twice those of the late 1990s, well below previous upper bounds. For a more extreme future warming scenario (warming by 4.5 degrees Celsius by 2100), the projected losses increase by more than 50 per cent, producing a cumulative SLR of 29 to 49 millimetres by 2200.

Time Dependent Frictional Changes in Ice due to Contact Area Changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sevostianov, V.; Lipovsky, B. P.; Rubinstein, S.; Dillavou, S.

2017-12-01

Sliding processes along the ice-bed interface of Earth's great ice sheets are the largest contributor to our uncertainty in future sea level rise. Laboratory experiments that have probed sliding processes have ubiquitously shown that ice-rock interfaces strengthen while in stationary contact (Schulson and Fortt, 2013; Zoet et al., 2013; McCarthy et al., 2017). This so-called frictional ageing effect may have profound consequences for ice sheet dynamics because it introduces the possibility of basal strength hysteresis. Furthermore this effect is quite strong in ice-rock interfaces (more than an order of magnitude more pronounced than in rock-rock sliding) and can double in frictional strength in a matter of minutes, much faster than most frictional aging (Dieterich, 1972; Baumberger and Caroli, 2006). Despite this importance, the underling physics of frictional ageing of ice remain poorly understood. Here we conduct laboratory experiments to image the microscopic points of contact along an ice-glass interface. We optically measure changes in the real area of contact over time using measurements of this reflected optical light intensity. We show that contact area increases with time of stationary contact. This result suggests that thermally enhanced creep of microscopic icy contacts is responsible for the much larger frictional ageing observed in ice-rock versus rock-rock interfaces. Furthermore, this supports a more physically detailed description of the thermal dependence of basal sliding than that used in the current generation of large scale ice sheet models.

ISMIP6 - initMIP: Greenland ice sheet model initialisation experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goelzer, Heiko; Nowicki, Sophie; Payne, Tony; Larour, Eric; Abe Ouchi, Ayako; Gregory, Jonathan; Lipscomb, William; Seroussi, Helene; Shepherd, Andrew; Edwards, Tamsin

2016-04-01

Earlier large-scale Greenland ice sheet sea-level projections e.g. those run during ice2sea and SeaRISE initiatives have shown that ice sheet initialisation can have a large effect on the projections and gives rise to important uncertainties. This intercomparison exercise (initMIP) aims at comparing, evaluating and improving the initialization techniques used in the ice sheet modeling community and to estimate the associated uncertainties. It is the first in a series of ice sheet model intercomparison activities within ISMIP6 (Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6). The experiments are conceived for the large-scale Greenland ice sheet and are designed to allow intercomparison between participating models of 1) the initial present-day state of the ice sheet and 2) the response in two schematic forward experiments. The latter experiments serve to evaluate the initialisation in terms of model drift (forward run without any forcing) and response to a large perturbation (prescribed surface mass balance anomaly). We present and discuss first results of the intercomparison and highlight important uncertainties with respect to projections of the Greenland ice sheet sea-level contribution.

Extraction of Ice Sheet Layers from Two Intersected Radar Echograms Near Neem Ice Core in Greenland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiong, S.; Muller, J.-P.

2016-06-01

Accumulation of snow and ice over time result in ice sheet layers. These can be remotely sensed where there is a contrast in electromagnetic properties, which reflect variations of the ice density, acidity and fabric orientation. Internal ice layers are assumed to be isochronous, deep beneath the ice surface, and parallel to the direction of ice flow. The distribution of internal layers is related to ice sheet dynamics, such as the basal melt rate, basal elevation variation and changes in ice flow mode, which are important parameters to model the ice sheet. Radar echo sounder is an effective instrument used to study the sedimentology of the Earth and planets. Ice Penetrating Radar (IPR) is specific kind of radar echo sounder, which extends studies of ice sheets from surface to subsurface to deep internal ice sheets depending on the frequency utilised. In this study, we examine a study site where folded ice occurs in the internal ice sheet south of the North Greenland Eemian ice drilling (NEEM) station, where two intersected radar echograms acquired by the Multi-channel Coherent Radar Depth Sounder (MCoRDS) employed in the NASA's Operation IceBridge (OIB) mission imaged this folded ice. We propose a slice processing flow based on a Radon Transform to trace and extract these two sets of curved ice sheet layers, which can then be viewed in 3-D, demonstrating the 3-D structure of the ice folds.

Consequences of rapid ice sheet melting on the Sahelian population vulnerability

PubMed Central

Ramstein, Gilles; Charbit, Sylvie; Vrac, Mathieu; Famien, Adjoua Moïse; Sultan, Benjamin; Swingedouw, Didier; Dumas, Christophe; Gemenne, François; Alvarez-Solas, Jorge; Vanderlinden, Jean-Paul

2017-01-01

The acceleration of ice sheet melting has been observed over the last few decades. Recent observations and modeling studies have suggested that the ice sheet contribution to future sea level rise could have been underestimated in the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report. The ensuing freshwater discharge coming from ice sheets could have significant impacts on global climate, and especially on the vulnerable tropical areas. During the last glacial/deglacial period, megadrought episodes were observed in the Sahel region at the time of massive iceberg surges, leading to large freshwater discharges. In the future, such episodes have the potential to induce a drastic destabilization of the Sahelian agroecosystem. Using a climate modeling approach, we investigate this issue by superimposing on the Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 (RCP8.5) baseline experiment a Greenland flash melting scenario corresponding to an additional sea level rise ranging from 0.5 m to 3 m. Our model response to freshwater discharge coming from Greenland melting reveals a significant decrease of the West African monsoon rainfall, leading to changes in agricultural practices. Combined with a strong population increase, described by different demography projections, important human migration flows could be potentially induced. We estimate that, without any adaptation measures, tens to hundreds million people could be forced to leave the Sahel by the end of this century. On top of this quantification, the sea level rise impact over coastal areas has to be superimposed, implying that the Sahel population could be strongly at threat in case of rapid Greenland melting. PMID:28584113

Consequences of rapid ice sheet melting on the Sahelian population vulnerability.

PubMed

Defrance, Dimitri; Ramstein, Gilles; Charbit, Sylvie; Vrac, Mathieu; Famien, Adjoua Moïse; Sultan, Benjamin; Swingedouw, Didier; Dumas, Christophe; Gemenne, François; Alvarez-Solas, Jorge; Vanderlinden, Jean-Paul

2017-06-20

The acceleration of ice sheet melting has been observed over the last few decades. Recent observations and modeling studies have suggested that the ice sheet contribution to future sea level rise could have been underestimated in the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report. The ensuing freshwater discharge coming from ice sheets could have significant impacts on global climate, and especially on the vulnerable tropical areas. During the last glacial/deglacial period, megadrought episodes were observed in the Sahel region at the time of massive iceberg surges, leading to large freshwater discharges. In the future, such episodes have the potential to induce a drastic destabilization of the Sahelian agroecosystem. Using a climate modeling approach, we investigate this issue by superimposing on the Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 (RCP8.5) baseline experiment a Greenland flash melting scenario corresponding to an additional sea level rise ranging from 0.5 m to 3 m. Our model response to freshwater discharge coming from Greenland melting reveals a significant decrease of the West African monsoon rainfall, leading to changes in agricultural practices. Combined with a strong population increase, described by different demography projections, important human migration flows could be potentially induced. We estimate that, without any adaptation measures, tens to hundreds million people could be forced to leave the Sahel by the end of this century. On top of this quantification, the sea level rise impact over coastal areas has to be superimposed, implying that the Sahel population could be strongly at threat in case of rapid Greenland melting.

Century-scale simulations of the response of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet to a warming climate

DOE PAGES

Cornford, S. L.; Martin, D. F.; Payne, A. J.; ...

2015-03-23

We use the BISICLES adaptive mesh ice sheet model to carry out one, two, and three century simulations of the fast-flowing ice streams of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. Each of the simulations begins with a geometry and velocity close to present day observations, and evolves according to variation in meteoric ice accumulation, ice shelf melting, and mesh resolution. Future changes in accumulation and melt rates range from no change, through anomalies computed by atmosphere and ocean models driven by the E1 and A1B emissions scenarios, to spatially uniform melt rates anomalies that remove most of the ice shelves overmore » a few centuries. We find that variation in the resulting ice dynamics is dominated by the choice of initial conditions, ice shelf melt rate and mesh resolution, although ice accumulation affects the net change in volume above flotation to a similar degree. Given sufficient melt rates, we compute grounding line retreat over hundreds of kilometers in every major ice stream, but the ocean models do not predict such melt rates outside of the Amundsen Sea Embayment until after 2100. Sensitivity to mesh resolution is spurious, and we find that sub-kilometer resolution is needed along most regions of the grounding line to avoid systematic under-estimates of the retreat rate, although resolution requirements are more stringent in some regions – for example the Amundsen Sea Embayment – than others – such as the Möller and Institute ice streams.« less

Sensitivity of simulated englacial isochrones to uncertain subglacial boundary conditions in central West Antarctica: Implications for detecting changes in ice dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muldoon, Gail; Jackson, Charles S.; Young, Duncan A.; Quartini, Enrica; Cavitte, Marie G. P.; Blankenship, Donald D.

2017-04-01

Information about the extent and dynamics of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet during past glaciations is preserved inside ice sheets themselves. Ice cores are capable of retrieving information about glacial history, but they are spatially sparse. Ice-penetrating radar, on the other hand, has been used to map large areas of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and can be correlated to ice core chronologies. Englacial isochronous layers observed in ice-penetrating radar are the result of variations in ice composition, fabric, temperature and other factors. The shape of these isochronous surfaces is expected to encode information about past and present boundary conditions and ice dynamics. Dipping of englacial layers, for example, may reveal the presence of rapid ice flow through paleo ice streams or high geothermal heat flux. These layers therefore present a useful testbed for hypotheses about paleo ice sheet conditions. However, hypothesis testing requires careful consideration of the sensitivity of layer shape to the competing forces of ice sheet boundary conditions and ice dynamics over time. Controlled sensitivity tests are best completed using models, however ice sheet models generally do not have the capability of simulating layers in the presence of realistic boundary conditions. As such, modeling 3D englacial layers for comparison to observations is difficult and requires determination of a 3D ice velocity field. We present a method of post-processing simulated 3D ice sheet velocities into englacial isochronous layers using an advection scheme. We then test the sensitivity of layer geometry to uncertain boundary conditions, including heterogeneous subglacial geothermal flux and bedrock topography. By identifying areas of the ice sheet strongly influenced by boundary conditions, it may be possible to isolate the signature of paleo ice dynamics in the West Antarctic ice sheet.

Differences in ice retreat across Pine Island Bay, West Antarctica, since the Last Glacial Maximum: Indications from multichannel seismic reflection data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Uenzelmann-Neben, G.; Gohl, K.; Larter, R.D.; Schlüter, P.

2007-01-01

An understanding of the glacial history of Pine Island Bay (PIB) is essential for refining models of the future stability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS). New multichannel seismic reflection data from inner PIB are interpreted in context of previously published reconstructions for the retreat history in this area since the Last Glacial Maximum. Differences in the behavior of the ice sheet during deglaciation are shown to exist for the western and eastern parts of PIB. While we can identify only a thin veneer of sedimentary deposits in western PIB, eastern PIB shows sedimentary layers ≤ 400 msTWT. This is interpreted as a result of differences in ice retreat: a fast ice retreat in western PIB accompanied by rapid basal melting led to production of large meltwater streams, a slower ice retreat in eastern PIB is most probably the result of smaller drainage basins resulting in less meltwater production.

History of the Greenland Ice Sheet: paleoclimatic insights

USGS Publications Warehouse

Alley, Richard B.; Andrews, John T.; Brigham-Grette, J.; Clarke, G.K.C.; Cuffey, Kurt M.; Fitzpatrick, J.J.; Funder, S.; Marshall, S.J.; Miller, G.H.; Mitrovica, J.X.; Muhs, D.R.; Otto-Bliesner, B. L.; Polyak, L.; White, J.W.C.

2010-01-01

Paleoclimatic records show that the GreenlandIce Sheet consistently has lost mass in response to warming, and grown in response to cooling. Such changes have occurred even at times of slow or zero sea-level change, so changing sea level cannot have been the cause of at least some of the ice-sheet changes. In contrast, there are no documented major ice-sheet changes that occurred independent of temperature changes. Moreover, snowfall has increased when the climate warmed, but the ice sheet lost mass nonetheless; increased accumulation in the ice sheet's center has not been sufficient to counteract increased melting and flow near the edges. Most documented forcings and ice-sheet responses spanned periods of several thousand years, but limited data also show rapid response to rapid forcings. In particular, regions near the ice margin have responded within decades. However, major changes of central regions of the ice sheet are thought to require centuries to millennia. The paleoclimatic record does not yet strongly constrain how rapidly a major shrinkage or nearly complete loss of the ice sheet could occur. The evidence suggests nearly total ice-sheet loss may result from warming of more than a few degrees above mean 20th century values, but this threshold is poorly defined (perhaps as little as 2 °C or more than 7 °C). Paleoclimatic records are sufficiently sketchy that the ice sheet may have grown temporarily in response to warming, or changes may have been induced by factors other than temperature, without having been recorded.

Potential Climatic Effects on the Greenland Ice Sheet

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bindschadler, R. A.

1984-01-01

The Greenland Ice Sheet covers an area of 1,720,000 sq. km and contains approximately 2,600,000 cu km of ice. Most of the ice sheet receives an excess of snow accumulation over the amount of ice lost to wind, meltwater run-off or other ablative processes. The majority of mass loss occurs at the margin of the ice sheet as either surface melt, which flows into the sea or calving of icebergs from the tongues of outlet glaciers. Many estimates of these processes were published. An average of five published estimates is summarized. If these estimates are correct, then the Greenland Ice Sheet is in approximate equilibrium and contributes 490 cu km/a of fresh water to the North Atlantic and Arctic Oceans. Climate effects, ice sheet flow, and application of remote sensing to tracking of the ice sheet are discussed.

Potential subglacial lake locations and meltwater drainage pathways beneath the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Livingstone, S. J.; Clark, C. D.; Woodward, J.; Kingslake, J.

2013-11-01

We use the Shreve hydraulic potential equation as a simplified approach to investigate potential subglacial lake locations and meltwater drainage pathways beneath the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets. We validate the method by demonstrating its ability to recall the locations of >60% of the known subglacial lakes beneath the Antarctic Ice Sheet. This is despite uncertainty in the ice-sheet bed elevation and our simplified modelling approach. However, we predict many more lakes than are observed. Hence we suggest that thousands of subglacial lakes remain to be found. Applying our technique to the Greenland Ice Sheet, where very few subglacial lakes have so far been observed, recalls 1607 potential lake locations, covering 1.2% of the bed. Our results will therefore provide suitable targets for geophysical surveys aimed at identifying lakes beneath Greenland. We also apply the technique to modelled past ice-sheet configurations and find that during deglaciation both ice sheets likely had more subglacial lakes at their beds. These lakes, inherited from past ice-sheet configurations, would not form under current surface conditions, but are able to persist, suggesting a retreating ice-sheet will have many more subglacial lakes than advancing ones. We also investigate subglacial drainage pathways of the present-day and former Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. Key sectors of the ice sheets, such as the Siple Coast (Antarctica) and NE Greenland Ice Stream system, are suggested to have been susceptible to subglacial drainage switching. We discuss how our results impact our understanding of meltwater drainage, basal lubrication and ice-stream formation.

Interhemispheric ice-sheet synchronicity during the Last Glacial Maximum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weber, M. E.; Clark, P. U.; Ricken, W.; Mitrovica, J. X.; Hostetler, S. W.; Kuhn, G.

2012-04-01

The timing of the last maximum extent of the Antarctic ice sheets relative to those in the Northern Hemisphere remains poorly understood because only a few findings with robust chronologies exist for Antarctic ice sheets. We developed a chronology for the Weddell Sea sector of the East Antarctic ice sheet that, combined with ages from other Antarctic ice-sheet sectors, indicates the advance to their maximum extent at 29 -28 ka, and retreat from their maximum extent at 19 ka was nearly synchronous with Northern Hemisphere ice sheets (Weber, M.E., Clark, P. U., Ricken, W., Mitrovica, J. X., Hostetler, S. W., and Kuhn, G. (2011): Interhemispheric ice-sheet synchronicity during the Last Glacial Maximum. - Science, 334, 1265-1269, doi: 10.1126:science.1209299). As for the deglaciation, modeling studies suggest a late ice-sheet retreat starting around 14 ka BP and ending around 7 ka BP with a large impact of an unstable West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) and a small impact of a stable East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS). However, the Weddell Sea sites studied here, as well as sites from the Scotia Sea, provide evidence that specifically the EAIS responded much earlier, possibly provided a significant contribution to the last sea-level rise, and was much more dynamic than previously thought. Using the results of an atmospheric general circulation we conclude that surface climate forcing of Antarctic ice mass balance would likely cause an opposite response, whereby a warming climate would increase accumulation but not surface melting. Furthermore, our new data support teleconnections involving a sea-level fingerprint forced from Northern Hemisphere ice sheets as indicated by gravitational modeling. Also, changes in North Atlantic Deepwater formation and attendant heat flux to Antarctic grounding lines may have contributed to synchronizing the hemispheric ice sheets.

Design and results of the ice sheet model initialisation experiments initMIP-Greenland: an ISMIP6 intercomparison

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goelzer, Heiko; Nowicki, Sophie; Edwards, Tamsin; Beckley, Matthew; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Aschwanden, Andy; Calov, Reinhard; Gagliardini, Olivier; Gillet-Chaulet, Fabien; Golledge, Nicholas R.; Gregory, Jonathan; Greve, Ralf; Humbert, Angelika; Huybrechts, Philippe; Kennedy, Joseph H.; Larour, Eric; Lipscomb, William H.; Le clec'h, Sébastien; Lee, Victoria; Morlighem, Mathieu; Pattyn, Frank; Payne, Antony J.; Rodehacke, Christian; Rückamp, Martin; Saito, Fuyuki; Schlegel, Nicole; Seroussi, Helene; Shepherd, Andrew; Sun, Sainan; van de Wal, Roderik; Ziemen, Florian A.

2018-04-01

Earlier large-scale Greenland ice sheet sea-level projections (e.g. those run during the ice2sea and SeaRISE initiatives) have shown that ice sheet initial conditions have a large effect on the projections and give rise to important uncertainties. The goal of this initMIP-Greenland intercomparison exercise is to compare, evaluate, and improve the initialisation techniques used in the ice sheet modelling community and to estimate the associated uncertainties in modelled mass changes. initMIP-Greenland is the first in a series of ice sheet model intercomparison activities within ISMIP6 (the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6), which is the primary activity within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) focusing on the ice sheets. Two experiments for the large-scale Greenland ice sheet have been designed to allow intercomparison between participating models of (1) the initial present-day state of the ice sheet and (2) the response in two idealised forward experiments. The forward experiments serve to evaluate the initialisation in terms of model drift (forward run without additional forcing) and in response to a large perturbation (prescribed surface mass balance anomaly); they should not be interpreted as sea-level projections. We present and discuss results that highlight the diversity of data sets, boundary conditions, and initialisation techniques used in the community to generate initial states of the Greenland ice sheet. We find good agreement across the ensemble for the dynamic response to surface mass balance changes in areas where the simulated ice sheets overlap but differences arising from the initial size of the ice sheet. The model drift in the control experiment is reduced for models that participated in earlier intercomparison exercises.

Design and results of the ice sheet model initialisation experiments initMIP-Greenland: an ISMIP6 intercomparison

DOE PAGES

Goelzer, Heiko; Nowicki, Sophie; Edwards, Tamsin; ...

2018-04-19

Earlier large-scale Greenland ice sheet sea-level projections (e.g. those run during the ice2sea and SeaRISE initiatives) have shown that ice sheet initial conditions have a large effect on the projections and give rise to important uncertainties. Here, the goal of this initMIP-Greenland intercomparison exercise is to compare, evaluate, and improve the initialisation techniques used in the ice sheet modelling community and to estimate the associated uncertainties in modelled mass changes. initMIP-Greenland is the first in a series of ice sheet model intercomparison activities within ISMIP6 (the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6), which is the primary activity within themore » Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) focusing on the ice sheets. Two experiments for the large-scale Greenland ice sheet have been designed to allow intercomparison between participating models of (1) the initial present-day state of the ice sheet and (2) the response in two idealised forward experiments. The forward experiments serve to evaluate the initialisation in terms of model drift (forward run without additional forcing) and in response to a large perturbation (prescribed surface mass balance anomaly); they should not be interpreted as sea-level projections. We present and discuss results that highlight the diversity of data sets, boundary conditions, and initialisation techniques used in the community to generate initial states of the Greenland ice sheet. We find good agreement across the ensemble for the dynamic response to surface mass balance changes in areas where the simulated ice sheets overlap but differences arising from the initial size of the ice sheet. The model drift in the control experiment is reduced for models that participated in earlier intercomparison exercises.« less

Design and results of the ice sheet model initialisation experiments initMIP-Greenland: an ISMIP6 intercomparison

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Goelzer, Heiko; Nowicki, Sophie; Edwards, Tamsin

Earlier large-scale Greenland ice sheet sea-level projections (e.g. those run during the ice2sea and SeaRISE initiatives) have shown that ice sheet initial conditions have a large effect on the projections and give rise to important uncertainties. Here, the goal of this initMIP-Greenland intercomparison exercise is to compare, evaluate, and improve the initialisation techniques used in the ice sheet modelling community and to estimate the associated uncertainties in modelled mass changes. initMIP-Greenland is the first in a series of ice sheet model intercomparison activities within ISMIP6 (the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6), which is the primary activity within themore » Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) focusing on the ice sheets. Two experiments for the large-scale Greenland ice sheet have been designed to allow intercomparison between participating models of (1) the initial present-day state of the ice sheet and (2) the response in two idealised forward experiments. The forward experiments serve to evaluate the initialisation in terms of model drift (forward run without additional forcing) and in response to a large perturbation (prescribed surface mass balance anomaly); they should not be interpreted as sea-level projections. We present and discuss results that highlight the diversity of data sets, boundary conditions, and initialisation techniques used in the community to generate initial states of the Greenland ice sheet. We find good agreement across the ensemble for the dynamic response to surface mass balance changes in areas where the simulated ice sheets overlap but differences arising from the initial size of the ice sheet. The model drift in the control experiment is reduced for models that participated in earlier intercomparison exercises.« less

Forecasting and Predicting Coastal Local Sea Level as Support for Coastal Zone Management Decisions and Policy Making (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Plag, H.

2009-12-01

Local Sea Level (LSL) rise is one of the major anticipated impacts of future global warming with potentially devastating consequences, particularly in many low-lying, often subsiding, and densely populated coastal areas. Risk and vulnerability assessments in support of informed decisions ask for predictions of the plausible range of future LSL trajectories as input, while mitigation and adaptation to potentially rapid LSL changes would benefit from a forecasting of LSL changes on decadal time scales. Low-frequency to secular changes in LSL are the result of a number of location-dependent processes including ocean temperature and salinity changes, ocean and atmospheric circulation changes, mass exchange of the oceans with other reservoirs in the water cycle, and vertical land motion. Mass exchange between oceans and the ice sheets, glaciers, and land water storage has the potential to change coastal LSL in many geographical regions. LSL changes in response to mass exchange with land-based ice sheets, glaciers and water storage are spatially variable due to vertical land motion induced by the shifting loads and gravitational effects resulting from both the relocation of surface water mass and the deformation of the solid Earth under the load. As a consequence, close to a melting ice mass LSL will fall significantly and far away increase more than the global average. The so-called sea level equation expresses LSL as a function of current and past mass changes in ice sheets, glaciers, land water storage, and the resulting mass redistribution in the oceans. Predictions of mass-induced LSL changes exhibit significant inter-model differences, which introduce a large uncertainty in the prediction of LSL variations caused by changes in ice sheets, glaciers, and land water storage. Together with uncertainties in other contributions, this uncertainty produces a large range of plausible future LSL trajectories, which hampers the development of reasonable adaptation strategies for the coastal zone. While the sea level equation has been tested extensively in postglacial rebound studies for the viscous (post-mass change) contribution, a thorough validation of the elastic (co-mass change) contribution has yet to be done. Accurate observations of concurrent LSL changes, vertical land motion, and gravity changes required for such a test were missing until very recently. For the validation, new observations of LSL changes, vertical land motion, and gravity changes close to rapidly changing ice sheets and glaciers in Greenland, Svalbard, and other regions, as well as satellite altimetry observations of sea surface height changes and satellite gravity mission observations of mass changes in the hydrosphere are now available. With a validated solution, we will be able to better characterize LSL changes due to mass exchange of the oceans with, in particular, ice sheets and glaciers as an important contribution to the plausible range of future LSL trajectories in coastal zones. The current "error budget" will be assessed, and the impact of the uncertainties in LSL forecasts (on decadal time scales) and long-term projections (century time scales) on adaptation and mitigation strategies will be discussed.

Quantifying Local Ablation Rates for the Greenland Ice Sheet Using Terrestrial LIDAR

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kershner, C. M.; Pitcher, L. H.; LeWinter, A.; Finnegan, D. C.; Overstreet, B. T.; Miège, C.; Cooper, M. G.; Smith, L. C.; Rennermalm, A. K.

2016-12-01

Quantifying accurate ice surface ablation or melt rates for the Greenland Ice Sheet is important for calibrating and validating surface mass balance models and constraining sea level rise estimates. Common practice is to monitor surface ablation at defined points by manually measuring ice surface lowering in relation to stakes inserted into the ice / snow. However, this method does not account for the effects of local topography, solar zenith angle, and local variations in ice surface albedo/impurities on ablation rates. To directly address these uncertainties, we use a commercially available terrestrial LIDAR scanner (TLS) to monitor daily melt rates in the ablation zone of the Greenland Ice Sheet for 7 consecutive days in July 2016. Each survey is registered to previous scans using retroreflective cylinders and is georeferenced using static GPS measurements. Bulk ablation will be calculated using multi-temporal differential LIDAR techniques, and difficulties in referencing scans and collecting high quality surveys in this dynamic environment will be discussed, as well as areas for future research. We conclude that this novel application of TLS technology provides a spatially accurate, higher fidelity measurements of ablation across a larger area with less interpolation and less time spent than using traditional manual point based methods alone. Furthermore, this sets the stage for direct calibration, validation and cross-comparison with existing airborne (e.g. NASA's Airborne Topographic Mapper - ATM - onboard Operation IceBridge and NASA's Land, Vegetation & Ice Sensor - LVIS) and forthcoming spaceborne sensors (e.g. NASA's ICESat-2).

The paradox of a long grounding during West Antarctic Ice Sheet retreat in Ross Sea.

PubMed

Bart, Philip J; Krogmeier, Benjamin J; Bart, Manon P; Tulaczyk, Slawek

2017-04-28

Marine geological data show that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) advanced to the eastern Ross Sea shelf edge during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and eventually retreated ~1000 km to the current grounding-line position on the inner shelf. During the early deglacial, the WAIS deposited a voluminous stack of overlapping grounding zone wedges (GZWs) on the outer shelf of the Whales Deep Basin. The large sediment volume of the GZW cluster suggests that the grounding-line position of the paleo-Bindschadler Ice Stream was relatively stationary for a significant time interval. We used an upper bound estimate of paleo-sediment flux to investigate the lower bound duration over which the ice stream would have deposited sediment to account for the GZW volume. Our calculations show that the cluster represents more than three millennia of ice-stream sedimentation. This long duration grounding was probably facilitated by rapid GZW growth. The subsequent punctuated large-distance (~200 km) grounding-line retreat may have been a highly non-linear ice sheet response to relatively continuous external forcing such as gradual climate warming or sea-level rise. These findings indicate that reliable predictions of future WAIS retreat may require incorporation of realistic calculations of sediment erosion, transport and deposition.

Modelling the Climate - Greenland Ice Sheet Interaction in the Coupled Ice-sheet/Climate Model EC-EARTH - PISM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, S.; Madsen, M. S.; Rodehacke, C. B.; Svendsen, S. H.; Adalgeirsdottir, G.

2014-12-01

Recent observations show that the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) has been losing mass with an increasing speed during the past decades. Predicting the GrIS changes and their climate consequences relies on the understanding of the interaction of the GrIS with the climate system on both global and local scales, and requires climate model systems with an explicit and physically consistent ice sheet module. A fully coupled global climate model with a dynamical ice sheet model for the GrIS has recently been developed. The model system, EC-EARTH - PISM, consists of the EC-EARTH, an atmosphere, ocean and sea ice model system, and the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM). The coupling of PISM includes a modified surface physical parameterization in EC-EARTH adapted to the land ice surface over glaciated regions in Greenland. The PISM ice sheet model is forced with the surface mass balance (SMB) directly computed inside the EC-EARTH atmospheric module and accounting for the precipitation, the surface evaporation, and the melting of snow and ice over land ice. PISM returns the simulated basal melt, ice discharge and ice cover (extent and thickness) as boundary conditions to EC-EARTH. This coupled system is mass and energy conserving without being constrained by any anomaly correction or flux adjustment, and hence is suitable for investigation of ice sheet - climate feedbacks. Three multi-century experiments for warm climate scenarios under (1) the RCP85 climate forcing, (2) an abrupt 4xCO2 and (3) an idealized 1% per year CO2 increase are performed using the coupled model system. The experiments are compared with their counterparts of the standard CMIP5 simulations (without the interactive ice sheet) to evaluate the performance of the coupled system and to quantify the GrIS feedbacks. In particular, the evolution of the Greenland ice sheet under the warm climate and its impacts on the climate system are investigated. Freshwater fluxes from the Greenland ice sheet melt to the Arctic and North Atlantic basin and their influence on the ocean stratification and ocean circulation are analysed. The changes in the surface climate and the atmospheric circulation associated with the impact of the Greenland ice sheet changes are quantified. The interaction between the Greenland ice sheet and Arctic sea ice is also examined.

Results of the Greenland Ice Sheet Model Initialisation Experiments ISMIP6 - initMIP-Greenland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goelzer, H.; Nowicki, S.; Edwards, T.; Beckley, M.; Abe-Ouchi, A.; Aschwanden, A.; Calov, R.; Gagliardini, O.; Gillet-chaulet, F.; Golledge, N. R.; Gregory, J. M.; Greve, R.; Humbert, A.; Huybrechts, P.; Larour, E. Y.; Lipscomb, W. H.; Le ´h, S.; Lee, V.; Kennedy, J. H.; Pattyn, F.; Payne, A. J.; Rodehacke, C. B.; Rückamp, M.; Saito, F.; Schlegel, N.; Seroussi, H. L.; Shepherd, A.; Sun, S.; Vandewal, R.; Ziemen, F. A.

2016-12-01

Earlier large-scale Greenland ice sheet sea-level projections e.g. those run during ice2sea and SeaRISE initiatives have shown that ice sheet initialisation can have a large effect on the projections and gives rise to important uncertainties. The goal of this intercomparison exercise (initMIP-Greenland) is to compare, evaluate and improve the initialization techniques used in the ice sheet modeling community and to estimate the associated uncertainties. It is the first in a series of ice sheet model intercomparison activities within ISMIP6 (Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6). Two experiments for the large-scale Greenland ice sheet have been designed to allow intercomparison between participating models of 1) the initial present-day state of the ice sheet and 2) the response in two schematic forward experiments. The forward experiments serve to evaluate the initialisation in terms of model drift (forward run without any forcing) and response to a large perturbation (prescribed surface mass balance anomaly). We present and discuss final results of the intercomparison and highlight important uncertainties with respect to projections of the Greenland ice sheet sea-level contribution.

Ice core evidence for extensive melting of the greenland ice sheet in the last interglacial.

PubMed

Koerner, R M

1989-05-26

Evidence from ice at the bottom of ice cores from the Canadian Arctic Islands and Camp Century and Dye-3 in Greenland suggests that the Greenland ice sheet melted extensively or completely during the last interglacial period more than 100 ka (thousand years ago), in contrast to earlier interpretations. The presence of dirt particles in the basal ice has previously been thought to indicate that the base of the ice sheets had melted and that the evidence for the time of original growth of these ice masses had been destroyed. However, the particles most likely blew onto the ice when the dimensions of the ice caps and ice sheets were much smaller. Ice texture, gas content, and other evidence also suggest that the basal ice at each drill site is superimposed ice, a type of ice typical of the early growth stages of an ice cap or ice sheet. If the present-day ice masses began their growth during the last interglacial, the ice sheet from the earlier (Illinoian) glacial period must have competely or largely melted during the early part of the same interglacial period. If such melting did occur, the 6-meter higher-than-present sea level during the Sangamon cannot be attributed to disintegration of the West Antarctic ice sheet, as has been suggested.

Sensitivity experiments with a one-dimensional coupled plume - iceflow model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beckmann, Johanna; Perette, Mahé; Alexander, David; Calov, Reinhard; Ganopolski, Andrey

2016-04-01

Over the last few decades Greenland Ice sheet mass balance has become increasingly negative, caused by enhanced surface melting and speedup of the marine-terminating outlet glaciers at the ice sheet margins. Glaciers speedup has been related, among other factors, to enhanced submarine melting, which in turn is caused by warming of the surrounding ocean and less obviously, by increased subglacial discharge. While ice-ocean processes potentially play an important role in recent and future mass balance changes of the Greenland Ice Sheet, their physical understanding remains poorly understood. In this work we performed numerical experiments with a one-dimensional plume model coupled to a one-dimensional iceflow model. First we investigated the sensitivity of submarine melt rate to changes in ocean properties (ocean temperature and salinity), to the amount of subglacial discharge and to the glacier's tongue geometry itself. A second set of experiments investigates the response of the coupled model, i.e. the dynamical response of the outlet glacier to altered submarine melt, which results in new glacier geometry and updated melt rates.

Program for Arctic Regional Climate Assessment (PARCA)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gogineni, Sivaprasad; Thomas, Robert H.; Abdalati, Waleed (Editor)

1999-01-01

The Program for Arctic Regional Climate Assessment (PARCA) is a NASA-sponsored initiative with the prime objective of understanding the mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet. In October 1998, PARCA investigators met to review activities of the previous year, assess the program's progress, and plan future investigations directed at accomplishing that objective. Some exciting results were presented and discussed, including evidence of dramatic thinning of the ice sheet near the southeastern coast. Details of the investigations and many of the accomplishments are given in this report, but major highlights are given in the Executive Summary of the report.

Interhemispheric ice-sheet synchronicity during the last glacial maximum

USGS Publications Warehouse

Weber, Michael E.; Clark, Peter U.; Ricken, Werner; Mitrovica, Jerry X.; Hostetler, Steven W.; Kuhn, Gerhard

2011-01-01

The timing of the last maximum extent of the Antarctic ice sheets relative to those in the Northern Hemisphere remains poorly understood. We develop a chronology for the Weddell Sea sector of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet that, combined with ages from other Antarctic ice-sheet sectors, indicates that the advance to and retreat from their maximum extent was within dating uncertainties synchronous with most sectors of Northern Hemisphere ice sheets. Surface climate forcing of Antarctic mass balance would probably cause an opposite response, whereby a warming climate would increase accumulation but not surface melting. Our new data support teleconnections involving sea-level forcing from Northern Hemisphere ice sheets and changes in North Atlantic deep-water formation and attendant heat flux to Antarctic grounding lines to synchronize the hemispheric ice sheets.

Interhemispheric ice-sheet synchronicity during the Last Glacial Maximum.

PubMed

Weber, Michael E; Clark, Peter U; Ricken, Werner; Mitrovica, Jerry X; Hostetler, Steven W; Kuhn, Gerhard

2011-12-02

The timing of the last maximum extent of the Antarctic ice sheets relative to those in the Northern Hemisphere remains poorly understood. We develop a chronology for the Weddell Sea sector of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet that, combined with ages from other Antarctic ice-sheet sectors, indicates that the advance to and retreat from their maximum extent was within dating uncertainties synchronous with most sectors of Northern Hemisphere ice sheets. Surface climate forcing of Antarctic mass balance would probably cause an opposite response, whereby a warming climate would increase accumulation but not surface melting. Our new data support teleconnections involving sea-level forcing from Northern Hemisphere ice sheets and changes in North Atlantic deep-water formation and attendant heat flux to Antarctic grounding lines to synchronize the hemispheric ice sheets.

Mass Balance Changes and Ice Dynamics of Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets from Laser Altimetry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Babonis, G. S.; Csatho, B.; Schenk, T.

2016-06-01

During the past few decades the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets have lost ice at accelerating rates, caused by increasing surface temperature. The melting of the two big ice sheets has a big impact on global sea level rise. If the ice sheets would melt down entirely, the sea level would rise more than 60 m. Even a much smaller rise would cause dramatic damage along coastal regions. In this paper we report about a major upgrade of surface elevation changes derived from laser altimetry data, acquired by NASA's Ice, Cloud and land Elevation Satellite mission (ICESat) and airborne laser campaigns, such as Airborne Topographic Mapper (ATM) and Land, Vegetation and Ice Sensor (LVIS). For detecting changes in ice sheet elevations we have developed the Surface Elevation Reconstruction And Change detection (SERAC) method. It computes elevation changes of small surface patches by keeping the surface shape constant and considering the absolute values as surface elevations. We report about important upgrades of earlier results, for example the inclusion of local ice caps and the temporal extension from 1993 to 2014 for the Greenland Ice Sheet and for a comprehensive reconstruction of ice thickness and mass changes for the Antarctic Ice Sheets.

Preservation of a Preglacial Landscape Under the Center of the Greenland Ice Sheet

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bierman, Paul R.; Corbett, Lee B.; Graly, Joseph A.; Neumann, Thomas Allen; Lini, Andrea; Crosby, Benjamin T.; Rood, Dylan H.

2014-01-01

Continental ice sheets typically sculpt landscapes via erosion; under certain conditions, ancient landscapes can be preserved beneath ice and can survive extensive and repeated glaciation. We used concentrations of atmospherically produced cosmogenic beryllium-10, carbon, and nitrogen to show that ancient soil has been preserved in basal ice for millions of years at the center of the ice sheet at Summit, Greenland. This finding suggests ice sheet stability through the Pleistocene (i.e., the past 2.7 million years). The preservation of this soil implies that the ice has been non-erosive and frozen to the bed for much of that time, that there was no substantial exposure of central Greenland once the ice sheet became fully established, and that preglacial landscapes can remain preserved for long periods under continental ice sheets

Modelling the enigmatic Late Pliocene Glacial Event - Marine Isotope Stage M2

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dolan, Aisling M.; Haywood, Alan M.; Hunter, Stephen J.; Tindall, Julia C.; Dowsett, Harry J.; Hill, Daniel J.; Pickering, Steven J.

2015-01-01

The Pliocene Epoch (5.2 to 2.58 Ma) has often been targeted to investigate the nature of warm climates. However, climate records for the Pliocene exhibit significant variability and show intervals that apparently experienced a cooler than modern climate. Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) M2 (~ 3.3 Ma) is a globally recognisable cooling event that disturbs an otherwise relatively (compared to present-day) warm background climate state. It remains unclear whether this event corresponds to significant ice sheet build-up in the Northern and Southern Hemisphere. Estimates of sea level for this interval vary, and range from modern values to estimates of 65 m sea level fall with respect to present day. Here we implement plausible M2 ice sheet configurations into a coupled atmosphere–ocean climate model to test the hypothesis that larger-than-modern ice sheet configurations may have existed at M2. Climate model results are compared with proxy climate data available for M2 to assess the plausibility of each ice sheet configuration. Whilst the outcomes of our data/model comparisons are not in all cases straight forward to interpret, there is little indication that results from model simulations in which significant ice masses have been prescribed in the Northern Hemisphere are incompatible with proxy data from the North Atlantic, Northeast Arctic Russia, North Africa and the Southern Ocean. Therefore, our model results do not preclude the possibility of the existence of larger ice masses during M2 in the Northern or Southern Hemisphere. Specifically they are not able to discount the possibility of significant ice masses in the Northern Hemisphere during the M2 event, consistent with a global sea-level fall of between 40 m and 60 m. This study highlights the general need for more focused and coordinated data generation in the future to improve the coverage and consistency in proxy records for M2, which will allow these and future M2 sensitivity tests to be interrogated further.

The Rapid Ice Sheet Change Observatory (RISCO)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morin, P.; Howat, I. M.; Ahn, Y.; Porter, C.; McFadden, E. M.

2010-12-01

The recent expansion of observational capacity from space has revealed dramatic, rapid changes in the Earth’s ice cover. These discoveries have fundamentally altered how scientists view ice-sheet change. Instead of just slow changes in snow accumulation and melting over centuries or millennia, important changes can occur in sudden events lasting only months, weeks, or even a single day. Our understanding of these short time- and space-scale processes, which hold important implications for future global sea level rise, has been impeded by the low temporal and spatial resolution, delayed sensor tasking, incomplete coverage, inaccessibility and/or high cost of data available to investigators. New cross-agency partnerships and data access policies provide the opportunity to dramatically improve the resolution of ice sheet observations by an order of magnitude, from timescales of months and distances of 10’s of meters, to days and meters or less. Advances in image processing technology also enable application of currently under-utilized datasets. The infrastructure for systematically gathering, processing, analyzing and distributing these data does not currently exist. Here we present the development of a multi-institutional, multi-platform observatory for rapid ice change with the ultimate objective of helping to elucidate the relevant timescales and processes of ice sheet dynamics and response to climate change. The Rapid Ice Sheet Observatory (RISCO) gathers observations of short time- and space-scale Cryosphere events and makes them easily accessible to investigators, media and general public. As opposed to existing data centers, which are structured to archive and distribute diverse types of raw data to end users with the specialized software and skills to analyze them, RISCO focuses on three types of geo-referenced raster (image) data products in a format immediately viewable with commonly available software. These three products are (1) sequences of images and image animations from the ice sheet scale down to scales of meters, (2) maps of ice flow velocity and acceleration and (3) digital elevation models and elevation change maps. These products are created both from user-tasked data acquisitions and from a decade of archived data. An online user interface will allow browsing of the data catalog, product ordering and requests for sensor tasking. Over the next few years, RISCO will develop into a long-term observational system, with an adaptable infrastructure to accommodate new sensors and currently unforeseeable demands. RISCO has the potential to greatly enhance observation of ice sheets, moving from ad hoc studies of past changes using whatever data happens to be available, to scalable, targeted, near-real time monitoring of events as they occur.

Estimating the impact of internal climate variability on ice sheet model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsai, C. Y.; Forest, C. E.; Pollard, D.

2016-12-01

Rising sea level threatens human societies and coastal habitats and melting ice sheets are a major contributor to sea level rise (SLR). Thus, understanding uncertainty of both forcing and variability within the climate system is essential for assessing long-term risk of SLR given their impact on ice sheet evolution. The predictability of polar climate is limited by uncertainties from the given forcing, the climate model response to this forcing, and the internal variability from feedbacks within the fully coupled climate system. Among those sources of uncertainty, the impact of internal climate variability on ice sheet changes has not yet been robustly assessed. Here we investigate how internal variability affects ice sheet projections using climate fields from two Community Earth System Model (CESM) large-ensemble (LE) experiments to force a three-dimensional ice sheet model. Each ensemble member in an LE experiment undergoes the same external forcings but with unique initial conditions. We find that for both LEs, 2m air temperature variability over Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) can lead to significantly different ice sheet responses. Our results show that the internal variability from two fully coupled CESM LEs can cause about 25 35 mm differences of GrIS's contribution to SLR in 2100 compared to present day (about 20% of the total change), and 100m differences of SLR in 2300. Moreover, only using ensemble-mean climate fields as the forcing in ice sheet model can significantly underestimate the melt of GrIS. As the Arctic region becomes warmer, the role of internal variability is critical given the complex nonlinear interactions between surface temperature and ice sheet. Our results demonstrate that internal variability from coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model can affect ice sheet simulations and the resulting sea-level projections. This study highlights an urgent need to reassess associated uncertainties of projecting ice sheet loss over the next few centuries to obtain robust estimates of the contribution of ice sheet melt to SLR.

The role of synoptic weather variability in Greenland ice sheet dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walker, J. M.; Radic, V.

2017-12-01

Much of the large uncertainty in predictions of future global sea level rise is due to our limited understanding of Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) motion and its interactions with climate. Over the next century, climate models predict that the GrIS will experience not only gradual warming, but also changes in atmospheric circulation, hydrology, and weather, including a northward shift of the North Atlantic storm track, with greater frequency and intensity of rain storms over the GrIS. Recent studies of GrIS dynamics have focused on the effects of increased seasonal mean meltwater on ice velocities, finding only a modest impact due to compensation by subglacial drainage systems, but subglacial hydraulic theory indicates that variability on shorter timescales is also relevant: short-term surges in meltwater or rainfall can overload drainage systems at rates faster than they can adjust, leading to water pressure spikes and ice acceleration. If the magnitude or frequency of these transient ice accelerations increase substantially as synoptic weather patterns change over the next century, there could be a significant cumulative impact on seasonal mean ice velocities. However, this issue has not been addressed in the literature and represents a major source of uncertainty. In this study, we investigate the role of synoptic weather variability in GrIS dynamics, with the ultimate goal of evaluating the relationships between extreme weather events and ice sheet flow in different seasons and regions of the GrIS. As a first step, we apply the machine learning technique of self-organizing maps to atmospheric reanalysis data to categorize the predominant synoptic weather systems over the GrIS domain, evaluating atmospheric moisture transport and rainfall to assess the impacts of each weather system on GrIS surface hydrology. The preliminary results presented here will be used in conjunction with ice velocity satellite measurements in future work, to identify any correlations between seasonal mean GrIS velocities and the frequency or intensity of storms during the season.

Impact of 1.5°C global warming on the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ritz, Catherine; Pattyn, Frank

2017-04-01

For strengthening the global response to climate change, it is crucial to assess to what extent limiting global warming to low values may reduce the impacts on society. To tackle this issue, the IPCC has decided to provide a special report in 2018 on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways. Ice sheets are well known contributors to sea level rise and many studies have aimed to provide projections of their future contribution in response to climate change, although the focus was often on worst-case scenarios. Here we propose to review the present knowledge of how the ice sheets could be affected in the case of a limited warming of 1.5°C to 2.0°C. We will review the various processes and feedbacks known to induce ice sheets vulnerability. They are different for Greenland, where we know that the surface mass balance plays a crucial role, and Antarctica where the major risk is marine ice sheet instability. One point of interest is to define, in terms of local forcing, the tipping points associated with these processes. We note that limiting global warming to 1.5°C may mean substantially more warming in the polar regions. This polar amplification can be assessed from experiments following the RCP2.6 scenario that have been carried out in recent (post IPCC AR5) studies. This scenario can be considered as an upper limit for 1.5°C. The final question concerns the long term (millennial) impact. There is a general consensus that there are tipping points both for Greenland and Antarctica, which potentially lead to irreversible mass loss. We will review the current knowledge of how long it takes to reach these tipping points and whether subsequent ice-sheet demise is, indeed, unstoppable.

Monitoring southwest Greenland's ice sheet melt with ambient seismic noise.

PubMed

Mordret, Aurélien; Mikesell, T Dylan; Harig, Christopher; Lipovsky, Bradley P; Prieto, Germán A

2016-05-01

The Greenland ice sheet presently accounts for ~70% of global ice sheet mass loss. Because this mass loss is associated with sea-level rise at a rate of 0.7 mm/year, the development of improved monitoring techniques to observe ongoing changes in ice sheet mass balance is of paramount concern. Spaceborne mass balance techniques are commonly used; however, they are inadequate for many purposes because of their low spatial and/or temporal resolution. We demonstrate that small variations in seismic wave speed in Earth's crust, as measured with the correlation of seismic noise, may be used to infer seasonal ice sheet mass balance. Seasonal loading and unloading of glacial mass induces strain in the crust, and these strains then result in seismic velocity changes due to poroelastic processes. Our method provides a new and independent way of monitoring (in near real time) ice sheet mass balance, yielding new constraints on ice sheet evolution and its contribution to global sea-level changes. An increased number of seismic stations in the vicinity of ice sheets will enhance our ability to create detailed space-time records of ice mass variations.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bougamont, M.; Christoffersen, P.; Price, S. F.

Ongoing, centennial-scale flow variability within the Ross ice streams of West Antarctica suggests that the present-day positive mass balance in this region may reverse in the future. Here we use a three-dimensional ice sheet model to simulate ice flow in this region over 250 years. The flow responds to changing basal properties, as a subglacial till layer interacts with water transported in an active subglacial hydrological system. We show that a persistent weak bed beneath the tributaries of the dormant Kamb Ice Stream is a source of internal ice flow instability, which reorganizes all ice streams in this region, leadingmore » to a reduced (positive) mass balance within decades and a net loss of ice within two centuries. This hitherto unaccounted for flow variability could raise sea level by 5 mm this century. Furthermore, better constraints on future sea level change from this region will require improved estimates of geothermal heat flux and subglacial water transport.« less

Unveiling the Antarctic subglacial landscape.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Warner, Roland; Roberts, Jason

2010-05-01

Better knowledge of the subglacial landscape of Antarctica is vital to reducing uncertainties regarding prediction of the evolution of the ice sheet. These uncertainties are associated with bedrock geometry for ice sheet dynamics, including possible marine ice sheet instabilities and subglacial hydrological pathways (e.g. Wright et al., 2008). Major collaborative aerogeophysics surveys motivated by the International Polar Year (e.g. ICECAP and AGAP), and continuing large scale radar echo sounding campaigns (ICECAP and NASA Ice Bridge) are significantly improving the coverage. However, the vast size of Antarctica and logistic difficulties mean that data gaps persist, and ice thickness data remains spatially inhomogeneous. The physics governing large scale ice sheet flow enables ice thickness, and hence bedrock topography, to be inferred from knowledge of ice sheet surface topography and considerations of ice sheet mass balance, even in areas with sparse ice thickness measurements (Warner and Budd, 2000). We have developed a robust physically motivated interpolation scheme, based on these methods, and used it to generate a comprehensive map of Antarctic bedrock topography, using along-track ice thickness data assembled for the BEDMAP project (Lythe et al., 2001). This approach reduces ice thickness biases, compared to traditional inverse distance interpolation schemes which ignore the information available from considerations of ice sheet flow. In addition, the use of improved balance fluxes, calculated using a Lagrangian scheme, eliminates the grid orientation biases in ice fluxes associated with finite difference methods (Budd and Warner, 1996, Le Brocq et al., 2006). The present map was generated using a recent surface DEM (Bamber et al., 2009, Griggs and Bamber, 2009) and accumulation distribution (van de Berg et al., 2006). Comparing our results with recent high resolution regional surveys gives confidence that all major subglacial topographic features are revealed by this approach, and we advocate its consideration in future ice thickness data syntheses. REFERENCES Budd, W.F., and R.C. Warner, 1996. A computer scheme for rapid calculations of balance-flux distributions. Annals of Glaciology 23, 21-27. Bamber, J.L., J.L. Gomez Dans and J.A. Griggs, 2009. A new 1 km digital elevation model of the Antarctic derived from combined satellite radar and laser data. Part I: Data and methods. The Cryosphere 3 (2), 101-111. Griggs, J.A., and J.L. Bamber, 2009. A new digital elevation model of Antarctica derived from combined radar and laser altimetry data. Part II: Validation and error estimates, The Cryosphere, 3(2), 113-123. Le Brocq, A.M., A.J. Payne and M.J. Siegert, 2006. West Antarctic balance calculations: Impact of flux-routing algorithm, smoothing algorithm and topography. Computers and Geosciences 23(10): 1780-1795. Lythe, M. B., D.G. Vaughan, and the BEDMAP Consortium 2001, BEDMAP: A new ice thickness and subglacial topographic model of Antarctica, J. of Geophys. Res., 106(B6),11,335-11,351. van de Berg, W.J., M.R. van den Broeke, C.H. Reijmer, and E. van Meijgaard, 2006. Reassessment of the Antarctic surface mass balance using calibrated output of a regional atmospheric climate model, J. Geophys. Res., 111, D11104,doi:10.1029/2005JD006495. Warner, R.C., and W.F. Budd, 2000. Derivation of ice thickness and bedrock topography in data-gap regions over Antarctica, Annals of Glaciology, 31, 191-197. Wright, A.P., M.J. Siegert, A.M. Le Brocq, and D.B. Gore, 2008. High sensitivity of subglacial hydrological pathways in Antarctica to small ice-sheet changes, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L17504, doi:10.1029/2008GL034937.

Hypsometric amplification and routing moderation of Greenland ice sheet meltwater release

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van As, Dirk; Mikkelsen, Andreas Bech; Holtegaard Nielsen, Morten; Box, Jason E.; Claesson Liljedahl, Lillemor; Lindbäck, Katrin; Pitcher, Lincoln; Hasholt, Bent

2017-06-01

Concurrent ice sheet surface runoff and proglacial discharge monitoring are essential for understanding Greenland ice sheet meltwater release. We use an updated, well-constrained river discharge time series from the Watson River in southwest Greenland, with an accurate, observation-based ice sheet surface mass balance model of the ˜ 12 000 km2 ice sheet area feeding the river. For the 2006-2015 decade, we find a large range of a factor of 3 in interannual variability in discharge. The amount of discharge is amplified ˜ 56 % by the ice sheet's hypsometry, i.e., area increase with elevation. A good match between river discharge and ice sheet surface meltwater production is found after introducing elevation-dependent transit delays that moderate diurnal variability in meltwater release by a factor of 10-20. The routing lag time increases with ice sheet elevation and attains values in excess of 1 week for the upper reaches of the runoff area at ˜ 1800 m above sea level. These multi-day routing delays ensure that the highest proglacial discharge levels and thus overbank flooding events are more likely to occur after multi-day melt episodes. Finally, for the Watson River ice sheet catchment, we find no evidence of meltwater storage in or release from the en- and subglacial environments in quantities exceeding our methodological uncertainty, based on the good match between ice sheet runoff and proglacial discharge.

The dynamics of climate-induced deglacial ice stream acceleration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robel, A.; Tziperman, E.

2015-12-01

Geological observations indicate that ice streams were a significant contributor to ice flow in the Laurentide Ice Sheet during the Last Glacial Maximum. Conceptual and simple model studies have also argued that the gradual development of ice streams increases the sensitivity of large ice sheets to weak climate forcing. In this study, we use an idealized configuration of the Parallel Ice Sheet Model to explore the role of ice streams in rapid deglaciation. In a growing ice sheet, ice streams develop gradually as the bed warms and the margin expands outward onto the continental shelf. Then, a weak change in equilibrium line altitude commensurate with Milankovitch forcing results in a rapid deglacial response, as ice stream acceleration leads to enhanced calving and surface melting at low elevations. We explain the dynamical mechanism that drives this ice stream acceleration and its broader applicability as a feedback for enhancing ice sheet decay in response to climate forcing. We show how our idealized ice sheet simulations match geomorphological observations of deglacial ice stream variability and previous model-data analyses. We conclude with observations on the potential for interaction between ice streams and other feedback mechanisms within the earth system.

Greenland ice sheet motion insensitive to exceptional meltwater forcing.

PubMed

Tedstone, Andrew J; Nienow, Peter W; Sole, Andrew J; Mair, Douglas W F; Cowton, Thomas R; Bartholomew, Ian D; King, Matt A

2013-12-03

Changes to the dynamics of the Greenland ice sheet can be forced by various mechanisms including surface-melt-induced ice acceleration and oceanic forcing of marine-terminating glaciers. We use observations of ice motion to examine the surface melt-induced dynamic response of a land-terminating outlet glacier in southwest Greenland to the exceptional melting observed in 2012. During summer, meltwater generated on the Greenland ice sheet surface accesses the ice sheet bed, lubricating basal motion and resulting in periods of faster ice flow. However, the net impact of varying meltwater volumes upon seasonal and annual ice flow, and thus sea level rise, remains unclear. We show that two extreme melt events (98.6% of the Greenland ice sheet surface experienced melting on July 12, the most significant melt event since 1889, and 79.2% on July 29) and summer ice sheet runoff ~3.9 σ above the 1958-2011 mean resulted in enhanced summer ice motion relative to the average melt year of 2009. However, despite record summer melting, subsequent reduced winter ice motion resulted in 6% less net annual ice motion in 2012 than in 2009. Our findings suggest that surface melt-induced acceleration of land-terminating regions of the ice sheet will remain insignificant even under extreme melting scenarios.

ARM West Antarctic Radiation Experiment (AWARE) Field Campaign Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lubin, Daniel; Bromwich, David H; Vogelmann, Andrew M

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) West Antarctic Radiation Experiment (AWARE) is the most technologically advanced atmospheric and climate science campaign yet fielded in Antarctica. AWARE was motivated be recent concern about the impact of cryospheric mass loss on global sea level rise. Specifically, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) is now the second largest contributor to rising sea level, after the Greenland Ice Sheet. As steadily warming ocean water erodes the grounding lines of WAIS components where they meet the Amundsen and Bellingshausen Seas, the retreating grounding lines moving inland and downslope on the underlyingmore » terrain imply mechanical instability of the entire WAIS. There is evidence that this point of instability may have already been reached, perhaps signifying more rapid loss of WAIS ice mass. At the same time, the mechanical support provided by adjacent ice shelves, and also the fundamental stability of exposed ice cliffs at the ice sheet grounding lines, will be adversely impacted by a warming atmosphere that causes more frequent episodes of surface melting. The surface meltwater damages the ice shelves and ice cliffs through hydrofracturing. With the increasing concern regarding these rapid cryospheric changes, AWARE was motivated by the need to (a) diagnose the surface energy balance in West Antarctica as related to both summer season climatology and potential surface melting, and (b) improve global climate model (GCM) performance over Antarctica, such that future cryospheric projections can be more reliable.« less

The last glaciation of Bear Peninsula, central Amundsen Sea Embayment of Antarctica: Constraints on timing and duration revealed by in situ cosmogenic 14C and 10Be dating

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, Joanne S.; Smith, James A.; Schaefer, Joerg M.; Young, Nicolás E.; Goehring, Brent M.; Hillenbrand, Claus-Dieter; Lamp, Jennifer L.; Finkel, Robert C.; Gohl, Karsten

2017-12-01

Ice streams in the Pine Island-Thwaites region of West Antarctica currently dominate contributions to sea level rise from the Antarctic ice sheet. Predictions of future ice-mass loss from this area rely on physical models that are validated with geological constraints on past extent, thickness and timing of ice cover. However, terrestrial records of ice sheet history from the region remain sparse, resulting in significant model uncertainties. We report glacial-geological evidence for the duration and timing of the last glaciation of Hunt Bluff, in the central Amundsen Sea Embayment. A multi-nuclide approach was used, measuring cosmogenic 10Be and in situ14C in bedrock surfaces and a perched erratic cobble. Bedrock 10Be ages (118-144 ka) reflect multiple periods of exposure and ice-cover, not continuous exposure since the last interglacial as had previously been hypothesized. In situ14C dating suggests that the last glaciation of Hunt Bluff did not start until 21.1 ± 5.8 ka - probably during the Last Glacial Maximum - and finished by 9.6 ± 0.9 ka, at the same time as ice sheet retreat from the continental shelf was complete. Thickening of ice at Hunt Bluff most likely post-dated the maximum extent of grounded ice on the outer continental shelf. Flow re-organisation provides a possible explanation for this, with the date for onset of ice-cover at Hunt Bluff providing a minimum age for the timing of convergence of the Dotson and Getz tributaries to form a single palaeo-ice stream. This is the first time that timing of onset of ice cover has been constrained in the Amundsen Sea Embayment.

Disintegration of a marine-based ice stream - evidence from the Norwegian Channel, north-eastern North Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morén, Björn M.; Petter Sejrup, Hans; Hjelstuen, Berit O.; Haflidason, Haflidi; Schäuble, Cathrina; Borge, Marianne

2014-05-01

The Norwegian Channel Ice Stream repeatedly drained large part of the Fennoscandian Ice Sheet through Mid and Late Pleistocene glacial stages. During parts of Marine Isotope Stages 2 and 3, glacial ice from Fennoscandia and the British Isles coalesced in the central North Sea and the Norwegian Channel Ice Stream reached the shelf edge on multiple occasions. Through the last decades a large amount of acoustic and sediment core data have been collected from the Norwegian Channel, providing a good background for studies focussing on stability- and development-controlling parameters for marine-based ice streams, the retreat rate of the Norwegian Channel Ice Stream, and the behaviour of the Fennoscandian Ice Sheet. Further, this improved understanding can be used to develop more accurate numerical climate models and models which can be used to model ice-sheet behaviour of the past as well as the future. This study presents new acoustic records and data from sediment cores which contribute to a better understanding of the retreat pattern and the retreat rate of the last ice stream that occupied the Norwegian Channel. From bathymetric and TOPAS seismic data, mega-scale glacial lineations, grounding-zone wedges, and end moraines have been mapped, thereby allowing us to reconstruct the pro- and subglacial conditions at the time of the creation of these landforms. It is concluded that the whole Norwegian Channel was deglaciated in just over 1 000 years and that for most of this time the ice margin was located at positions reflected by depositional grounding-zone wedges. Further work will explore the influence of channel shape and feeding of ice from western Norwegian fjords on this retreat pattern through numerical modelling.

Dynamic Antarctic ice sheet during the early to mid-Miocene

PubMed Central

DeConto, Robert M.; Pollard, David; Levy, Richard H.

2016-01-01

Geological data indicate that there were major variations in Antarctic ice sheet volume and extent during the early to mid-Miocene. Simulating such large-scale changes is problematic because of a strong hysteresis effect, which results in stability once the ice sheets have reached continental size. A relatively narrow range of atmospheric CO2 concentrations indicated by proxy records exacerbates this problem. Here, we are able to simulate large-scale variability of the early to mid-Miocene Antarctic ice sheet because of three developments in our modeling approach. (i) We use a climate–ice sheet coupling method utilizing a high-resolution atmospheric component to account for ice sheet–climate feedbacks. (ii) The ice sheet model includes recently proposed mechanisms for retreat into deep subglacial basins caused by ice-cliff failure and ice-shelf hydrofracture. (iii) We account for changes in the oxygen isotopic composition of the ice sheet by using isotope-enabled climate and ice sheet models. We compare our modeling results with ice-proximal records emerging from a sedimentological drill core from the Ross Sea (Andrill-2A) that is presented in a companion article. The variability in Antarctic ice volume that we simulate is equivalent to a seawater oxygen isotope signal of 0.52–0.66‰, or a sea level equivalent change of 30–36 m, for a range of atmospheric CO2 between 280 and 500 ppm and a changing astronomical configuration. This result represents a substantial advance in resolving the long-standing model data conflict of Miocene Antarctic ice sheet and sea level variability. PMID:26903645

Greenland Ice Sheet Surface Temperature, Melt, and Mass Loss: 2000-2006

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hall, Dorothy K.; Williams, Richard S., Jr.; Luthcke, Scott B.; DiGirolamo, Nocolo

2007-01-01

Extensive melt on the Greenland Ice Sheet has been documented by a variety of ground and satellite measurements in recent years. If the well-documented warming continues in the Arctic, melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet will likely accelerate, contributing to sea-level rise. Modeling studies indicate that an annual or summer temperature rise of 1 C on the ice sheet will increase melt by 20-50% therefore, surface temperature is one of the most important ice-sheet parameters to study for analysis of changes in the mass balance of the ice-sheet. The Greenland Ice Sheet contains enough water to produce a rise in eustatic sea level of up to 7.0 m if the ice were to melt completely. However, even small changes (centimeters) in sea level would cause important economic and societal consequences in the world's major coastal cities thus it is extremely important to monitor changes in the ice-sheet surface temperature and to ultimately quantify these changes in terms of amount of sea-level rise. We have compiled a high-resolution, daily time series of surface temperature of the Greenland Ice Sheet, using the I-km resolution, clear-sky land-surface temperature (LST) standard product from the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), from 2000 - 2006. We also use Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) data, averaged over 10-day periods, to measure change in mass of the ice sheet as it melt and snow accumulates. Surface temperature can be used to determine frequency of surface melt, timing of the start and the end of the melt season, and duration of melt. In conjunction with GRACE data, it can also be used to analyze timing of ice-sheet mass loss and gain.

Dynamics of the last glacial maximum Antarctic ice-sheet and its response to ocean forcing

PubMed Central

Golledge, Nicholas R.; Fogwill, Christopher J.; Mackintosh, Andrew N.; Buckley, Kevin M.

2012-01-01

Retreat of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) Antarctic ice sheet is thought to have been initiated by changes in ocean heat and eustatic sea level propagated from the Northern Hemisphere (NH) as northern ice sheets melted under rising atmospheric temperatures. The extent to which spatial variability in ice dynamics may have modulated the resultant pattern and timing of decay of the Antarctic ice sheet has so far received little attention, however, despite the growing recognition that dynamic effects account for a sizeable proportion of mass-balance changes observed in modern ice sheets. Here we use a 5-km resolution whole-continent numerical ice-sheet model to assess whether differences in the mechanisms governing ice sheet flow could account for discrepancies between geochronological studies in different parts of the continent. We first simulate the geometry and flow characteristics of an equilibrium LGM ice sheet, using pan-Antarctic terrestrial and marine geological data for constraint, then perturb the system with sea level and ocean heat flux increases to investigate ice-sheet vulnerability. Our results identify that fast-flowing glaciers in the eastern Weddell Sea, the Amundsen Sea, central Ross Sea, and in the Amery Trough respond most rapidly to ocean forcings, in agreement with empirical data. Most significantly, we find that although ocean warming and sea-level rise bring about mainly localized glacier acceleration, concomitant drawdown of ice from neighboring areas leads to widespread thinning of entire glacier catchments—a discovery that has important ramifications for the dynamic changes presently being observed in modern ice sheets. PMID:22988078

Dynamics of the last glacial maximum Antarctic ice-sheet and its response to ocean forcing.

PubMed

Golledge, Nicholas R; Fogwill, Christopher J; Mackintosh, Andrew N; Buckley, Kevin M

2012-10-02

Retreat of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) Antarctic ice sheet is thought to have been initiated by changes in ocean heat and eustatic sea level propagated from the Northern Hemisphere (NH) as northern ice sheets melted under rising atmospheric temperatures. The extent to which spatial variability in ice dynamics may have modulated the resultant pattern and timing of decay of the Antarctic ice sheet has so far received little attention, however, despite the growing recognition that dynamic effects account for a sizeable proportion of mass-balance changes observed in modern ice sheets. Here we use a 5-km resolution whole-continent numerical ice-sheet model to assess whether differences in the mechanisms governing ice sheet flow could account for discrepancies between geochronological studies in different parts of the continent. We first simulate the geometry and flow characteristics of an equilibrium LGM ice sheet, using pan-Antarctic terrestrial and marine geological data for constraint, then perturb the system with sea level and ocean heat flux increases to investigate ice-sheet vulnerability. Our results identify that fast-flowing glaciers in the eastern Weddell Sea, the Amundsen Sea, central Ross Sea, and in the Amery Trough respond most rapidly to ocean forcings, in agreement with empirical data. Most significantly, we find that although ocean warming and sea-level rise bring about mainly localized glacier acceleration, concomitant drawdown of ice from neighboring areas leads to widespread thinning of entire glacier catchments-a discovery that has important ramifications for the dynamic changes presently being observed in modern ice sheets.

The Response of Ice Sheets to Climate Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Snow, K.; Goldberg, D. N.; Holland, P. R.; Jordan, J. R.; Arthern, R. J.; Jenkins, A.

2017-12-01

West Antarctic Ice Sheet loss is a significant contributor to sea level rise. While the ice loss is thought to be triggered by fluctuations in oceanic heat at the ice shelf bases, ice sheet response to ocean variability remains poorly understood. Using a synchronously coupled ice-ocean model permitting grounding line migration, this study evaluates the response of an ice sheet to periodic variations in ocean forcing. Resulting oscillations in grounded ice volume amplitude is shown to grow as a nonlinear function of ocean forcing period. This implies that slower oscillations in climatic forcing are disproportionately important to ice sheets. The ice shelf residence time offers a critical time scale, above which the ice response amplitude is a linear function of ocean forcing period and below which it is quadratic. These results highlight the sensitivity of West Antarctic ice streams to perturbations in heat fluxes occurring at decadal time scales.

Simulation of the Greenland Ice Sheet over two glacial-interglacial cycles: investigating a sub-ice-shelf melt parameterization and relative sea level forcing in an ice-sheet-ice-shelf model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bradley, Sarah L.; Reerink, Thomas J.; van de Wal, Roderik S. W.; Helsen, Michiel M.

2018-05-01

Observational evidence, including offshore moraines and sediment cores, confirm that at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) expanded to a significantly larger spatial extent than seen at present, grounding into Baffin Bay and out onto the continental shelf break. Given this larger spatial extent and its close proximity to the neighbouring Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS) and Innuitian Ice Sheet (IIS), it is likely these ice sheets will have had a strong non-local influence on the spatial and temporal behaviour of the GrIS. Most previous paleo ice-sheet modelling simulations recreated an ice sheet that either did not extend out onto the continental shelf or utilized a simplified marine ice parameterization which did not fully include the effect of ice shelves or neglected the sensitivity of the GrIS to this non-local bedrock signal from the surrounding ice sheets. In this paper, we investigated the evolution of the GrIS over the two most recent glacial-interglacial cycles (240 ka BP to the present day) using the ice-sheet-ice-shelf model IMAU-ICE. We investigated the solid earth influence of the LIS and IIS via an offline relative sea level (RSL) forcing generated by a glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) model. The RSL forcing governed the spatial and temporal pattern of sub-ice-shelf melting via changes in the water depth below the ice shelves. In the ensemble of simulations, at the glacial maximums, the GrIS coalesced with the IIS to the north and expanded to the continental shelf break to the southwest but remained too restricted to the northeast. In terms of the global mean sea level contribution, at the Last Interglacial (LIG) and LGM the ice sheet added 1.46 and -2.59 m, respectively. This LGM contribution by the GrIS is considerably higher (˜ 1.26 m) than most previous studies whereas the contribution to the LIG highstand is lower (˜ 0.7 m). The spatial and temporal behaviour of the northern margin was highly variable in all simulations, controlled by the sub-ice-shelf melting which was dictated by the RSL forcing and the glacial history of the IIS and LIS. In contrast, the southwestern part of the ice sheet was insensitive to these forcings, with a uniform response in all simulations controlled by the surface air temperature, derived from ice cores.

Ice-sheet dynamics through the Quaternary on the mid-Norwegian continental margin inferred from 3D seismic data.

PubMed

Montelli, A; Dowdeswell, J A; Ottesen, D; Johansen, S E

2017-02-01

Reconstructing the evolution of ice sheets is critical to our understanding of the global environmental system, but most detailed palaeo-glaciological reconstructions have hitherto focused on the very recent history of ice sheets. Here, we present a three-dimensional (3D) reconstruction of the changing nature of ice-sheet derived sedimentary architecture through the Quaternary Ice Age of almost 3 Ma. An extensive geophysical record documents a marine-terminating, calving Fennoscandian Ice Sheet (FIS) margin present periodically on the mid-Norwegian shelf since the beginning of the Quaternary. Spatial and temporal variability of the FIS is illustrated by the gradual development of fast-flowing ice streams and associated intensification of focused glacial erosion and sedimentation since that time. Buried subglacial landforms reveal a complex and dynamic ice sheet, with converging palaeo-ice streams and several flow-switching events that may reflect major changes in topography and basal thermal regime. Lack of major subglacial meltwater channels suggests a largely distributed drainage system beneath the marine-terminating part of the FIS. This palaeo-environmental examination of the FIS provides a useful framework for ice-sheet modelling and shows that fragmentary preservation of buried surfaces and variability of ice-sheet dynamics should be taken into account when reconstructing glacial history from spatially limited datasets.

Final Laurentide ice-sheet deglaciation and Holocene climate-sea level change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ullman, David J.; Carlson, Anders E.; Hostetler, Steven W.; Clark, Peter U.; Cuzzone, Joshua; Milne, Glenn A.; Winsor, Kelsey; Caffee, Marc A.

2016-01-01

Despite elevated summer insolation forcing during the early Holocene, global ice sheets retained nearly half of their volume from the Last Glacial Maximum, as indicated by deglacial records of global mean sea level (GMSL). Partitioning the GMSL rise among potential sources requires accurate dating of ice-sheet extent to estimate ice-sheet volume. Here, we date the final retreat of the Laurentide Ice Sheet with 10Be surface exposure ages for the Labrador Dome, the largest of the remnant Laurentide ice domes during the Holocene. We show that the Labrador Dome deposited moraines during North Atlantic cold events at ∼10.3 ka, 9.3 ka and 8.2 ka, suggesting that these regional climate events helped stabilize the retreating Labrador Dome in the early Holocene. After Hudson Bay became seasonally ice free at ∼8.2 ka, the majority of Laurentide ice-sheet melted abruptly within a few centuries. We demonstrate through high-resolution regional climate model simulations that the thermal properties of a seasonally ice-free Hudson Bay would have increased Laurentide ice-sheet ablation and thus contributed to the subsequent rapid Labrador Dome retreat. Finally, our new 10Be chronology indicates full Laurentide ice-sheet had completely deglaciated by 6.7 ± 0.4 ka, which re quires that Antarctic ice sheets contributed 3.6–6.5 m to GMSL rise since 6.3–7.1 ka.

How and when to terminate the Pleistocene ice ages?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abe-Ouchi, A.; Saito, F.; Kawamura, K.; Takahashi, K.; Raymo, M. E.; Okuno, J.; Blatter, H.

2015-12-01

Climate change with wax and wane of large Northern Hemisphere ice sheet occurred in the past 800 thousand years characterized by 100 thousand year cycle with a large amplitude of sawtooth pattern, following a transition from a period of 40 thousand years cycle with small amplitude of ice sheet change at about 1 million years ago. Although the importance of insolation as the ultimate driver is now appreciated, the mechanism what determines timing and strength of terminations are far from clearly understood. Here we show, using comprehensive climate and ice-sheet models, that insolation and internal feedbacks between the climate, the ice sheets and the lithosphere-asthenosphere system explain the 100,000-year periodicity. The responses of equilibrium states of ice sheets to summer insolation show hysteresis, with the shape and position of the hysteresis loop playing a key part in determining the periodicities of glacial cycles. The hysteresis loop of the North American ice sheet is such that after inception of the ice sheet, its mass balance remains mostly positive through several precession cycles, whose amplitudes decrease towards an eccentricity minimum. The larger the ice sheet grows and extends towards lower latitudes, the smaller is the insolation required to make the mass balance negative. Therefore, once a large ice sheet is established, a moderate increase in insolation is sufficient to trigger a negative mass balance, leading to an almost complete retreat of the ice sheet within several thousand years. We discuss further the mechanism which determine the timing of ice age terminations by examining the role of astronomical forcing and change of atmospheric carbon dioxide contents through sensitivity experiments and comparison of several ice age cycles with different settings of astronomical forcings.

Thermodynamic and Dynamic Causes of Pluvial Conditions During the Last Glacial Maximum in Western North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morrill, Carrie; Lowry, Daniel P.; Hoell, Andrew

2018-01-01

During the last glacial period, precipitation minus evaporation increased across the currently arid western United States. These pluvial conditions have been commonly explained for decades by a southward deflection of the jet stream by the Laurentide Ice Sheet. Here analysis of state-of-the-art coupled climate models shows that effects of the Laurentide Ice Sheet on the mean circulation were more important than storm track changes in generating wet conditions. Namely, strong cooling by the ice sheet significantly reduced humidity over land, increasing moisture advection in the westerlies due to steepened humidity gradients. Additionally, the removal of moisture from the atmosphere by mass divergence associated with the subtropical high was diminished at the Last Glacial Maximum compared to present. These same dynamic and thermodynamic factors, working in the opposite direction, are projected to cause regional drying in western North America under increased greenhouse gas concentrations, indicating continuity from past to future in the mechanisms altering hydroclimate.

Rapid Swings between Greenhouse and Icehouse Climate States near the Oligocene - Miocene Boundary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Y.; Fraass, A.; Ruan, J.; Jin, X.; D'haenens, S.; Gasson, E.; Deconto, R. M.; Pearson, A.; Leckie, R. M.; Liu, C.; Liebrand, D.; Hull, P. M.; Pagani, M.

2017-12-01

The Earth's Cenozoic climate is conventionally portrayed as either being in a greenhouse or an icehouse conditions. Greenhouse climates are characterized by warm temperatures, high CO2 concentrations, low continental ice volume and reduced meridional temperature gradients, whereas icehouse climates are the opposite. The transition between greenhouse and icehouse primarily is achieved through stepwise and unidirectional cooling, ice sheet growth and increases in the meridional temperature gradients. Various feedbacks in the climate system and the global carbon cycle as well as the ice sheet hysteresis effect seem to preclude substantial fluctuations in the meridional temperature gradients, atmospheric CO2 concentrations and the volume of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) on a high frequency (orbital timescales). For example, relative to the Holocene, the last glacial maximum (LGM) is characterized by relatively small pCO2 changes (80-100 parts per million, ppm), similar cooling between the mid- and low-latitudes, and a stable East Antarctica Ice Sheet (EAIS). However, here we present geochemical reconstructions that appear to indicate large and rapid swings of CO2 (>200 ppm) and meridional temperature gradients near the Oligocene - Miocene (O-M) boundary ( 23 Ma). Further, transient waxing and waning of the EAIS during the Mi-1 glaciation is suggested by ice volume calculations based on benthic δ18O data, which are supported by the glaciomarine sequences deposited at the Ross Sea. Our results demonstrate a high sensitivity of surface ocean temperatures and temperature gradients, the global carbon cycle, and the cryosphere to changes in boundary conditions, with implications for our future.

Improvement of basal conditions knowledge in Antarctica using data assimilation methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mosbeux, C.; Gillet-Chaulet, F.; Gagliardini, O.

2017-12-01

The current global warming seems to have direct consequences on ice-sheet mass loss. Unfortunately, as highlighted in the last IPCC report, current ice-sheets models face several difficulties in assessing the future evolution of the dynamics of ice sheets for the next century. Indeed, projections are still plagued with high uncertainties partially due to the poor representation of occurring physical processes, but also due to the poor initialisation of ice flow models. More specifically, simulations are very sensitive to initial parameters such as the basal friction between ice-sheet and bedrock and the bedrock topography which are still badly known because of a lack of direct observations or large uncertainty on measurements. Improving the knowledge of these two parameters in Greenland and Antarctica is therefore a prerequisite for making reliable projections. Data assimilation methods have been developed in order to overcome this problem such as the Bayesian approach of Pralong and Gudmundsson (2009) or the adjoint method tested by Goldberg and Heimbach (2013) and Perego et al. (2014). The present work is based on two different assimilation algorithms to better constrain both basal drag and bedrock elevation parameters. The first algorithm is entirely based on the adjoint method while the second one uses an iterative method coupling inversion of basal friction based on an adjoint method and through an inversion of bedrock topography using a nudging method. Both algorithms have been implemented in the finite element ice sheet and ice flow model Elmer/Ice and have been tested in a twin experiment showing a clear improvement of both parameters knowledge (Mosbeux et al., 2016). Here, the methods are applied to a real 3D case in East Antarctica and with an ensemble method approach. The application of both algorithms reduces the uncertainty on basal conditions, for instance by providing more details to the basal geometry when compared to usual DEM. Moreover, as in the previous experiment, the reconstruction of both basal elevation and basal friction significantly decreases ice flux divergence anomalies when compared to classical methods where only the friction is inverted. Finally, we conduct prognostic simulations, allowing to assess the impact of the different initialisations obtained with the ensemble method.

Reactivation of Kamb Ice Stream tributaries triggers century-scale reorganization of Siple Coast ice flow in West Antarctica

DOE PAGES

Bougamont, M.; Christoffersen, P.; Price, S. F.; ...

2015-10-21

Ongoing, centennial-scale flow variability within the Ross ice streams of West Antarctica suggests that the present-day positive mass balance in this region may reverse in the future. Here we use a three-dimensional ice sheet model to simulate ice flow in this region over 250 years. The flow responds to changing basal properties, as a subglacial till layer interacts with water transported in an active subglacial hydrological system. We show that a persistent weak bed beneath the tributaries of the dormant Kamb Ice Stream is a source of internal ice flow instability, which reorganizes all ice streams in this region, leadingmore » to a reduced (positive) mass balance within decades and a net loss of ice within two centuries. This hitherto unaccounted for flow variability could raise sea level by 5 mm this century. Furthermore, better constraints on future sea level change from this region will require improved estimates of geothermal heat flux and subglacial water transport.« less

Ice-sheet thinning and acceleration at Camp Century, Greenlan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Colgan, W. T.

2017-12-01

Camp Century, Greenland (77.18 °N, 61.12 °W, 1900 m), is located approximately 150 km inland from the ice-sheet margin in Northwest Greenland. In-situ and remotely-sensed measurements of ice-sheet elevation at Camp Century exhibit a thinning trend between 1964 and the present. A comparison of 1966 and 2017 firn density profiles indicates that a portion of this ice-sheet thinning is attributable to increased firn compaction rate. In-situ measurements of increasing ice surface velocity over the 1977-2017 period indicate that enhanced horizontal divergence of ice flux is also contributing to ice dynamic thinning at Camp Century. This apparent ice dynamic thinning could potentially result from a migrating local flow divide or decreasing effective ice viscosity. In a shorter-term context, observations of decadal-scale ice-sheet thinning and acceleration at Camp Century highlights underappreciated transience in inland ice form and flow during the satellite era. In a longer-term context, these multi-decadal observations contrast with inferences of millennial-scale ice-sheet thickening and deceleration at Camp Century.

Sensitivities of Greenland ice sheet volume inferred from an ice sheet adjoint model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heimbach, P.; Bugnion, V.

2009-04-01

We present a new and original approach to understanding the sensitivity of the Greenland ice sheet to key model parameters and environmental conditions. At the heart of this approach is the use of an adjoint ice sheet model. Since its introduction by MacAyeal (1992), the adjoint method has become widespread to fit ice stream models to the increasing number and diversity of satellite observations, and to estimate uncertain model parameters such as basal conditions. However, no attempt has been made to extend this method to comprehensive ice sheet models. As a first step toward the use of adjoints of comprehensive three-dimensional ice sheet models we have generated an adjoint of the ice sheet model SICOPOLIS of Greve (1997). The adjoint was generated by means of the automatic differentiation (AD) tool TAF. The AD tool generates exact source code representing the tangent linear and adjoint model of the nonlinear parent model provided. Model sensitivities are given by the partial derivatives of a scalar-valued model diagnostic with respect to the controls, and can be efficiently calculated via the adjoint. By way of example, we determine the sensitivity of the total Greenland ice volume to various control variables, such as spatial fields of basal flow parameters, surface and basal forcings, and initial conditions. Reliability of the adjoint was tested through finite-difference perturbation calculations for various control variables and perturbation regions. Besides confirming qualitative aspects of ice sheet sensitivities, such as expected regional variations, we detect regions where model sensitivities are seemingly unexpected or counter-intuitive, albeit ``real'' in the sense of actual model behavior. An example is inferred regions where sensitivities of ice sheet volume to basal sliding coefficient are positive, i.e. where a local increase in basal sliding parameter increases the ice sheet volume. Similarly, positive ice temperature sensitivities in certain parts of the ice sheet are found (in most regions it is negativ, i.e. an increase in temperature decreases ice sheet volume), the detection of which seems highly unlikely if only conventional perturbation experiments had been used. An effort to generate an efficient adjoint with the newly developed open-source AD tool OpenAD is also under way. Available adjoint code generation tools now open up a variety of novel model applications, notably with regard to sensitivity and uncertainty analyses and ice sheet state estimation or data assimilation.

Large Ice Discharge From the Greenland Ice Sheet

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rignot, Eric

1999-01-01

The objectives of this work are to measure the ice discharge of the Greenland Ice Sheet close to the grounding line and/or calving front, and compare the results with mass accumulation and ablation in the interior to estimate the ice sheet mass balance.

Full-Stokes modeling of grounding line dynamics: some first interplay with measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Durand, G.; Gagliardini, O.; Zwinger, T.; Ritz, C.; Le Meur, E.; Rémy, F.

2009-12-01

Movement of the grounding line (i.e, the line between the grounded and the floating part of a marine ice-sheet) is one of the key processes that governs the mass balance of marine ice-sheets. So far, modeling of grounding line migration was inconsistent, leading to poorly reliable forecast of marine ice-sheet evolution. Important theoretical progress has been made these last years to describe the dynamics of the grounding line, and a recently developed full-Stokes model gives consistent results in comparison to this theory. Despite these important breakthroughs, theory as well as the model are restricted to two-dimensional flow line and therefore unable to be applied to a particular three-dimensional glaciological problem. Nevertheless, some first insights can be already drawn from 2D modeling results to improve the adequacy between future modeling and field measurements. We will particularly emphasize on two different aspects. (i) Modeling results have shown the major importance of high grid resolution in the vicinity of the grounding line, questioning strategies for future measurement campaigns of bedrock elevation of coastal glaciers. (ii) An approximately 10 m depression of the surface at the vertical position above the grounding line is a very stable feature produced by the model. Careful investigation of the surface curvature should help to locate grounding line position.

The Physics of Ice Sheets

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bassis, J. N.

2008-01-01

The great ice sheets in Antarctica and Greenland are vast deposits of frozen freshwater that contain enough to raise sea level by approximately 70 m if they were to completely melt. Because of the potentially catastrophic impact that ice sheets can have, it is important that we understand how ice sheets have responded to past climate changes and…

Climate Sensitivity in the Anthropocene

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Previdi, M.; Liepert, B. G.; Peteet, Dorothy M.; Hansen, J.; Beerling, D. J.; Broccoli, A. J.; Frolking, S.; Galloway, J. N.; Heimann, M.; LeQuere, C.;

Data assimilation and prognostic whole ice sheet modelling with the variationally derived, higher order, open source, and fully parallel ice sheet model VarGlaS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brinkerhoff, D. J.; Johnson, J. V.

2013-07-01

We introduce a novel, higher order, finite element ice sheet model called VarGlaS (Variational Glacier Simulator), which is built on the finite element framework FEniCS. Contrary to standard procedure in ice sheet modelling, VarGlaS formulates ice sheet motion as the minimization of an energy functional, conferring advantages such as a consistent platform for making numerical approximations, a coherent relationship between motion and heat generation, and implicit boundary treatment. VarGlaS also solves the equations of enthalpy rather than temperature, avoiding the solution of a contact problem. Rather than include a lengthy model spin-up procedure, VarGlaS possesses an automated framework for model inversion. These capabilities are brought to bear on several benchmark problems in ice sheet modelling, as well as a 500 yr simulation of the Greenland ice sheet at high resolution. VarGlaS performs well in benchmarking experiments and, given a constant climate and a 100 yr relaxation period, predicts a mass evolution of the Greenland ice sheet that matches present-day observations of mass loss. VarGlaS predicts a thinning in the interior and thickening of the margins of the ice sheet.

Relative sea-level rise around East Antarctica during Oligocene glaciation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stocchi, Paolo; Escutia, Carlota; Houben, Alexander J. P.; Vermeersen, Bert L. A.; Bijl, Peter K.; Brinkhuis, Henk; Deconto, Robert M.; Galeotti, Simone; Passchier, Sandra; Pollard, David; Brinkhuis, Henk; Escutia, Carlota; Klaus, Adam; Fehr, Annick; Williams, Trevor; Bendle, James A. P.; Bijl, Peter K.; Bohaty, Steven M.; Carr, Stephanie A.; Dunbar, Robert B.; Flores, Jose Abel; Gonzàlez, Jhon J.; Hayden, Travis G.; Iwai, Masao; Jimenez-Espejo, Francisco J.; Katsuki, Kota; Kong, Gee Soo; McKay, Robert M.; Nakai, Mutsumi; Olney, Matthew P.; Passchier, Sandra; Pekar, Stephen F.; Pross, Jörg; Riesselman, Christina; Röhl, Ursula; Sakai, Toyosaburo; Shrivastava, Prakash Kumar; Stickley, Catherine E.; Sugisaki, Saiko; Tauxe, Lisa; Tuo, Shouting; van de Flierdt, Tina; Welsh, Kevin; Yamane, Masako

2013-05-01

During the middle and late Eocene (~ 48-34Myr ago), the Earth's climate cooled and an ice sheet built up on Antarctica. The stepwise expansion of ice on Antarctica induced crustal deformation and gravitational perturbations around the continent. Close to the ice sheet, sea level rose despite an overall reduction in the mass of the ocean caused by the transfer of water to the ice sheet. Here we identify the crustal response to ice-sheet growth by forcing a glacial-hydro isostatic adjustment model with an Antarctic ice-sheet model. We find that the shelf areas around East Antarctica first shoaled as upper mantle material upwelled and a peripheral forebulge developed. The inner shelf subsequently subsided as lithosphere flexure extended outwards from the ice-sheet margins. Consequently the coasts experienced a progressive relative sea-level rise. Our analysis of sediment cores from the vicinity of the Antarctic ice sheet are in agreement with the spatial patterns of relative sea-level change indicated by our simulations. Our results are consistent with the suggestion that near-field processes such as local sea-level change influence the equilibrium state obtained by an ice-sheet grounding line.

Antarctic glaciation caused ocean circulation changes at the Eocene-Oligocene transition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goldner, A.; Herold, N.; Huber, M.

2014-07-01

Two main hypotheses compete to explain global cooling and the abrupt growth of the Antarctic ice sheet across the Eocene-Oligocene transition about 34 million years ago: thermal isolation of Antarctica due to southern ocean gateway opening, and declining atmospheric CO2 (refs 5, 6). Increases in ocean thermal stratification and circulation in proxies across the Eocene-Oligocene transition have been interpreted as a unique signature of gateway opening, but at present both mechanisms remain possible. Here, using a coupled ocean-atmosphere model, we show that the rise of Antarctic glaciation, rather than altered palaeogeography, is best able to explain the observed oceanographic changes. We find that growth of the Antarctic ice sheet caused enhanced northward transport of Antarctic intermediate water and invigorated the formation of Antarctic bottom water, fundamentally reorganizing ocean circulation. Conversely, gateway openings had much less impact on ocean thermal stratification and circulation. Our results support available evidence that CO2 drawdown--not gateway opening--caused Antarctic ice sheet growth, and further show that these feedbacks in turn altered ocean circulation. The precise timing and rate of glaciation, and thus its impacts on ocean circulation, reflect the balance between potentially positive feedbacks (increases in sea ice extent and enhanced primary productivity) and negative feedbacks (stronger southward heat transport and localized high-latitude warming). The Antarctic ice sheet had a complex, dynamic role in ocean circulation and heat fluxes during its initiation, and these processes are likely to operate in the future.

Antarctic glaciation caused ocean circulation changes at the Eocene-Oligocene transition.

PubMed

Goldner, A; Herold, N; Huber, M

2014-07-31

Two main hypotheses compete to explain global cooling and the abrupt growth of the Antarctic ice sheet across the Eocene-Oligocene transition about 34 million years ago: thermal isolation of Antarctica due to southern ocean gateway opening, and declining atmospheric CO2 (refs 5, 6). Increases in ocean thermal stratification and circulation in proxies across the Eocene-Oligocene transition have been interpreted as a unique signature of gateway opening, but at present both mechanisms remain possible. Here, using a coupled ocean-atmosphere model, we show that the rise of Antarctic glaciation, rather than altered palaeogeography, is best able to explain the observed oceanographic changes. We find that growth of the Antarctic ice sheet caused enhanced northward transport of Antarctic intermediate water and invigorated the formation of Antarctic bottom water, fundamentally reorganizing ocean circulation. Conversely, gateway openings had much less impact on ocean thermal stratification and circulation. Our results support available evidence that CO2 drawdown--not gateway opening--caused Antarctic ice sheet growth, and further show that these feedbacks in turn altered ocean circulation. The precise timing and rate of glaciation, and thus its impacts on ocean circulation, reflect the balance between potentially positive feedbacks (increases in sea ice extent and enhanced primary productivity) and negative feedbacks (stronger southward heat transport and localized high-latitude warming). The Antarctic ice sheet had a complex, dynamic role in ocean circulation and heat fluxes during its initiation, and these processes are likely to operate in the future.

Clean subglacial access: prospects for future deep hot-water drilling

PubMed Central

Pearce, David; Hodgson, Dominic A.; Smith, Andrew M.; Rose, Mike; Ross, Neil; Mowlem, Matt; Parnell, John

2016-01-01

Accessing and sampling subglacial environments deep beneath the Antarctic Ice Sheet presents several challenges to existing drilling technologies. With over half of the ice sheet believed to be resting on a wet bed, drilling down to this environment must conform to international agreements on environmental stewardship and protection, making clean hot-water drilling the most viable option. Such a drill, and its water recovery system, must be capable of accessing significantly greater ice depths than previous hot-water drills, and remain fully operational after connecting with the basal hydrological system. The Subglacial Lake Ellsworth (SLE) project developed a comprehensive plan for deep (greater than 3000 m) subglacial lake research, involving the design and development of a clean deep-ice hot-water drill. However, during fieldwork in December 2012 drilling was halted after a succession of equipment issues culminated in a failure to link with a subsurface cavity and abandonment of the access holes. The lessons learned from this experience are presented here. Combining knowledge gained from these lessons with experience from other hot-water drilling programmes, and recent field testing, we describe the most viable technical options and operational procedures for future clean entry into SLE and other deep subglacial access targets. PMID:26667913

Modelled Growth and Decay of the Cordilleran Ice Sheet Through the Last Glacial Cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marshall, S. J.; Banwell, A.

2015-12-01

The Cordilleran Ice Sheet in western North America had an enigmatic evolution during the last glacial cycle, developing out of sync with the larger Laurentide and global glaciation. The geological record suggests that the ice sheet emerged late, ca. 45 ka, growing to be a fully-established ice sheet in isotope stages 3 and 2 and deglaciating late in the glacial cycle. This has been a challenge to model, and is a paleoclimatic curiosity, because the western Cordillera of North America is heavily glacierized today, and one would intuitively expect it to act as an inception centre for the Pleistocene ice sheets. The region receives heavy precipitation, and modest cooling should induce large-scale glacier expansion. Indeed, a Cordilleran Ice Sheet quickly nucleates in isotope substage 5d in most ice sheet modeling studies to date, and is a resilient feature throughout the glaciation. The fact that a full-scale Cordilleran Ice Sheet did not develop until relatively late argues for either: (a) ice sheet models that have been inadequate in resolving the process of alpine-style glaciation, i.e., the coalescence of alpine icefields, or (b) a climatic history in western North America that deviated strongly from the hemispheric-scale cooling which drove the growth of the Laurentide and Scandinavian Ice Sheets, as recorded in Greenland. We argue that reasonable reconstructions of Cordilleran Ice Sheet growth and decay implicate a combination of these two considerations. Sufficient model resolution is required to capture the valley-bottom melt that suppresses icefield coalescence, while early-glacial cooling must have been modest in the Pacific sector of North America. We argue for a persistent warm, dry climate relative to that in eastern North America and the Atlantic sector, likely associated with positive feedbacks between atmospheric circulation and the nascent Laurentide Ice Sheet (i.e., peristent circulation patterns similar to those of 2014-2015). This must have been disrupted as the Laurentide thickened and advanced southward, allowing the Cordilleran Ice Sheet to emerge from numerous isolated icefield complexes.

Extensive massive basal-ice structures in West Antarctica relate to ice-sheet anisotropy and ice-flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ross, N.; Bingham, R. G.; Corr, H. F. J.; Siegert, M. J.

2016-12-01

Complex structures identified within both the East Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets are thought to be generated by the action of basal water freezing to the ice-sheet base, evolving under ice flow. Here, we use ice-penetrating radar to image an extensive series of similarly complex basal ice facies in West Antarctica, revealing a thick (>500 m) tectonised unit in an area of cold-based and relatively slow-flowing ice. We show that major folding and overturning of the unit perpendicular to ice flow elevates deep, warm ice into the mid ice-sheet column. Fold axes align with present ice flow, and axis amplitudes increase down-ice, suggesting long-term consistency in the direction and convergence of flow. In the absence of basal water, and the draping of the tectonised unit over major subglacial mountain ranges, the formation of the unit must be solely through the deformation of meteoric ice. Internal layer radar reflectivity is consistently greater parallel to flow compared with the perpendicular direction, revealing ice-sheet crystal anisotropy is associated with the folding. By linking layers to the Byrd ice-core site, we show the basal ice dates to at least the last glacial cycle and may be as old as the last interglacial. Deformation of deep-ice in this sector of WAIS, and potentially elsewhere in Antarctica, may be caused by differential shearing at interglacial-glacial boundaries, in a process analogous to that proposed for interior Greenland. The scale and heterogeneity of the englacial structures, and their subsequent impact on ice sheet rheology, means that the nature of ice flow across the bulk of West Antarctica must be far more complex that is currently accounted for by any numerical ice sheet model.

Reconciling records of ice streaming and ice margin retreat to produce a palaeogeographic reconstruction of the deglaciation of the Laurentide Ice Sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Margold, Martin; Stokes, Chris R.; Clark, Chris D.

2018-06-01

This paper reconstructs the deglaciation of the Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS; including the Innuitian Ice Sheet) from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), with a particular focus on the spatial and temporal variations in ice streaming and the associated changes in flow patterns and ice divides. We build on a recent inventory of Laurentide ice streams and use an existing ice margin chronology to produce the first detailed transient reconstruction of the ice stream drainage network in the LIS, which we depict in a series of palaeogeographic maps. Results show that the drainage network at the LGM was similar to modern-day Antarctica. The majority of the ice streams were marine terminating and topographically-controlled and many of these continued to function late into the deglaciation, until the ice sheet lost its marine margin. Ice streams with a terrestrial ice margin in the west and south were more transient and ice flow directions changed with the build-up, peak-phase and collapse of the Cordilleran-Laurentide ice saddle. The south-eastern marine margin in Atlantic Canada started to retreat relatively early and some of the ice streams in this region switched off at or shortly after the LGM. In contrast, the ice streams draining towards the north-western and north-eastern marine margins in the Beaufort Sea and in Baffin Bay appear to have remained stable throughout most of the Late Glacial, and some of them continued to function until after the Younger Dryas (YD). The YD influenced the dynamics of the deglaciation, but there remains uncertainty about the response of the ice sheet in several sectors. We tentatively ascribe the switching-on of some major ice streams during this period (e.g. M'Clintock Channel Ice Stream at the north-west margin), but for other large ice streams whose timing partially overlaps with the YD, the drivers are less clear and ice-dynamical processes, rather than effects of climate and surface mass balance are viewed as more likely drivers. Retreat rates markedly increased after the YD and the ice sheet became limited to the Canadian Shield. This hard-bed substrate brought a change in the character of ice streaming, which became less frequent but generated much broader terrestrial ice streams. The final collapse of the ice sheet saw a series of small ephemeral ice streams that resulted from the rapidly changing ice sheet geometry in and around Hudson Bay. Our reconstruction indicates that the LIS underwent a transition from a topographically-controlled ice drainage network at the LGM to an ice drainage network characterised by less frequent, broad ice streams during the later stages of deglaciation. These deglacial ice streams are mostly interpreted as a reaction to localised ice-dynamical forcing (flotation and calving of the ice front in glacial lakes and transgressing sea; basal de-coupling due to large amount of meltwater reaching the bed, debuttressing due to rapid changes in ice sheet geometry) rather than as conveyors of excess mass from the accumulation area of the ice sheet. At an ice sheet scale, the ice stream drainage network became less widespread and less efficient with the decreasing size of the deglaciating ice sheet, the final elimination of which was mostly driven by surface melt.

Combustion of available fossil fuel resources sufficient to eliminate the Antarctic Ice Sheet

PubMed Central

Winkelmann, Ricarda; Levermann, Anders; Ridgwell, Andy; Caldeira, Ken

2015-01-01

The Antarctic Ice Sheet stores water equivalent to 58 m in global sea-level rise. We show in simulations using the Parallel Ice Sheet Model that burning the currently attainable fossil fuel resources is sufficient to eliminate the ice sheet. With cumulative fossil fuel emissions of 10,000 gigatonnes of carbon (GtC), Antarctica is projected to become almost ice-free with an average contribution to sea-level rise exceeding 3 m per century during the first millennium. Consistent with recent observations and simulations, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet becomes unstable with 600 to 800 GtC of additional carbon emissions. Beyond this additional carbon release, the destabilization of ice basins in both West and East Antarctica results in a threshold increase in global sea level. Unabated carbon emissions thus threaten the Antarctic Ice Sheet in its entirety with associated sea-level rise that far exceeds that of all other possible sources. PMID:26601273

Combustion of available fossil-fuel resources sufficient to eliminate the Antarctic Ice Sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winkelmann, R.; Levermann, A.; Ridgwell, A.; Caldeira, K.

2015-12-01

The Antarctic Ice Sheet stores water equivalent to 58 meters in global sea-level rise. Here we show in simulations with the Parallel Ice Sheet Model that burning the currently attainable fossil-fuel resources is sufficient to eliminate the ice sheet. With cumulative fossil-fuel emissions of 10 000 GtC, Antarctica is projected to become almost ice-free with an average contribution to sea-level rise exceeding 3 meters per century during the first millennium. Consistent with recent observations and simulations, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet becomes unstable with 600 to 800 GtC of additional carbon emissions. Beyond this additional carbon release, the destabilization of ice basins in both West- and East Antarctica results in a threshold-increase in global sea level. Unabated carbon emissions thus threaten the Antarctic Ice Sheet in its entirety with associated sea-level rise that far exceeds that of all other possible sources.

Combustion of available fossil fuel resources sufficient to eliminate the Antarctic Ice Sheet.

PubMed

Winkelmann, Ricarda; Levermann, Anders; Ridgwell, Andy; Caldeira, Ken

2015-09-01

The Antarctic Ice Sheet stores water equivalent to 58 m in global sea-level rise. We show in simulations using the Parallel Ice Sheet Model that burning the currently attainable fossil fuel resources is sufficient to eliminate the ice sheet. With cumulative fossil fuel emissions of 10,000 gigatonnes of carbon (GtC), Antarctica is projected to become almost ice-free with an average contribution to sea-level rise exceeding 3 m per century during the first millennium. Consistent with recent observations and simulations, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet becomes unstable with 600 to 800 GtC of additional carbon emissions. Beyond this additional carbon release, the destabilization of ice basins in both West and East Antarctica results in a threshold increase in global sea level. Unabated carbon emissions thus threaten the Antarctic Ice Sheet in its entirety with associated sea-level rise that far exceeds that of all other possible sources.

Super-long Anabiosis of Ancient Microorganisms in Ice and Terrestrial Models for Development of Methods to Search for Life on Mars, Europa and other Planetary Bodies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Abyzov, S. S.; Duxbury, N. S.; Bobin, N. E.; Fukuchi, M.; Hoover, R. B.; Kanda, H.; Mitskevich, I. N.; Mulyukin, A. L.; Naganuma, T.; Poglazova, M. N.;

Deglaciation of Fennoscandia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stroeven, Arjen P.; Hättestrand, Clas; Kleman, Johan; Heyman, Jakob; Fabel, Derek; Fredin, Ola; Goodfellow, Bradley W.; Harbor, Jonathan M.; Jansen, John D.; Olsen, Lars; Caffee, Marc W.; Fink, David; Lundqvist, Jan; Rosqvist, Gunhild C.; Strömberg, Bo; Jansson, Krister N.

2016-09-01

To provide a new reconstruction of the deglaciation of the Fennoscandian Ice Sheet, in the form of calendar-year time-slices, which are particularly useful for ice sheet modelling, we have compiled and synthesized published geomorphological data for eskers, ice-marginal formations, lineations, marginal meltwater channels, striae, ice-dammed lakes, and geochronological data from radiocarbon, varve, optically-stimulated luminescence, and cosmogenic nuclide dating. This is summarized as a deglaciation map of the Fennoscandian Ice Sheet with isochrons marking every 1000 years between 22 and 13 cal kyr BP and every hundred years between 11.6 and final ice decay after 9.7 cal kyr BP. Deglaciation patterns vary across the Fennoscandian Ice Sheet domain, reflecting differences in climatic and geomorphic settings as well as ice sheet basal thermal conditions and terrestrial versus marine margins. For example, the ice sheet margin in the high-precipitation coastal setting of the western sector responded sensitively to climatic variations leaving a detailed record of prominent moraines and other ice-marginal deposits in many fjords and coastal valleys. Retreat rates across the southern sector differed between slow retreat of the terrestrial margin in western and southern Sweden and rapid retreat of the calving ice margin in the Baltic Basin. Our reconstruction is consistent with much of the published research. However, the synthesis of a large amount of existing and new data support refined reconstructions in some areas. For example, the LGM extent of the ice sheet in northwestern Russia was located far east and it occurred at a later time than the rest of the ice sheet, at around 17-15 cal kyr BP. We also propose a slightly different chronology of moraine formation over southern Sweden based on improved correlations of moraine segments using new LiDAR data and tying the timing of moraine formation to Greenland ice core cold stages. Retreat rates vary by as much as an order of magnitude in different sectors of the ice sheet, with the lowest rates on the high-elevation and maritime Norwegian margin. Retreat rates compared to the climatic information provided by the Greenland ice core record show a general correspondence between retreat rate and climatic forcing, although a close match between retreat rate and climate is unlikely because of other controls, such as topography and marine versus terrestrial margins. Overall, the time slice reconstructions of Fennoscandian Ice Sheet deglaciation from 22 to 9.7 cal kyr BP provide an important dataset for understanding the contexts that underpin spatial and temporal patterns in retreat of the Fennoscandian Ice Sheet, and are an important resource for testing and refining ice sheet models.

Ice sheets play important role in climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clark, Peter U.; MacAyeal, Douglas R.; Andrews, John T.; Bartlein, Patrick J.

Ice sheets once were viewed as passive elements in the climate system enslaved to orbitally generated variations in solar radiation. Today, modeling results and new geologic records suggest that ice sheets actively participated in late-Pleistocene climate change, amplifying or driving significant variability at millennial as well as orbital timescales. Although large changes in global ice volume were ultimately caused by orbital variations (the Milankovitch hypothesis), once in existence, the former ice sheets behaved dynamically and strongly influenced regional and perhaps even global climate by altering atmospheric and oceanic circulation and temperature.Experiments with General Circulation Models (GCMs) yielded the first inklings of ice sheets' climatic significance. Manabe and Broccoli [1985], for example, found that the topographic and albedo effects of ice sheets alone explain much of the Northern Hemisphere cooling identified in paleoclimatic records of the last glacial maximum (˜21 ka).

How effective is albedo modification (solar radiation management geoengineering) in preventing sea-level rise from the Greenland Ice Sheet?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Applegate, Patrick J.; Keller, Klaus

2015-08-01

Albedo modification (AM) is sometimes characterized as a potential means of avoiding climate threshold responses, including large-scale ice sheet mass loss. Previous work has investigated the effects of AM on total sea-level rise over the present century, as well as AM’s ability to reduce long-term (≫103 yr) contributions to sea-level rise from the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS). These studies have broken new ground, but neglect important feedbacks in the GIS system, or are silent on AM’s effectiveness over the short time scales that may be most relevant for decision-making (<103 yr). Here, we assess AM’s ability to reduce GIS sea-level contributions over decades to centuries, using a simplified ice sheet model. We drive this model using a business-as-usual base temperature forcing scenario, as well as scenarios that reflect AM-induced temperature stabilization or temperature drawdown. Our model results suggest that (i) AM produces substantial near-term reductions in the rate of GIS-driven sea-level rise. However, (ii) sea-level rise contributions from the GIS continue after AM begins. These continued sea level rise contributions persist for decades to centuries after temperature stabilization and temperature drawdown begin, unless AM begins in the next few decades. Moreover, (iii) any regrowth of the GIS is delayed by decades or centuries after temperature drawdown begins, and is slow compared to pre-AM rates of mass loss. Combined with recent work that suggests AM would not prevent mass loss from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, our results provide a nuanced picture of AM’s possible effects on future sea-level rise.

Balance of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2002-01-01

For several decades, measurements of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet showed it to be retreating rapidly. But new data derived from satellite-borne radar sensors show the ice sheet to be growing. Changing Antarctic ice sheets remains an area of high scientific interest, particularly in light of recent global warming concerns. These new findings are significant because scientists estimate that sea level would rise 5-6 meters (16-20 feet) if the ice sheet collapsed into the sea. Do these new measurements signal the end of the ice sheet's 10,000-year retreat? Or, are these new satellite data simply much more accurate than the sparse ice core and surface measurements that produced the previous estimates? Another possibility is that the ice accumulation may simply indicate that the ice sheet naturally expands and retreats in regular cycles. Cryologists will grapple with these questions, and many others, as they examine the new data. The image above depicts the region of West Antarctica where scientists measured ice speed. The fast-moving central ice streams are shown in red. Slower tributaries feeding the ice streams are shown in blue. Green areas depict slow-moving, stable areas. Thick black lines depict the areas that collect snowfall to feed their respective ice streams. Reference: Ian Joughin and Slawek Tulaczyk Science Jan 18 2002: 476-480. Image courtesy RADARSAT Antarctic Mapping Project

Past ice-sheet behaviour: retreat scenarios and changing controls in the Ross Sea, Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Halberstadt, Anna Ruth W.; Simkins, Lauren M.; Greenwood, Sarah L.; Anderson, John B.

2016-05-01

Studying the history of ice-sheet behaviour in the Ross Sea, Antarctica's largest drainage basin can improve our understanding of patterns and controls on marine-based ice-sheet dynamics and provide constraints for numerical ice-sheet models. Newly collected high-resolution multibeam bathymetry data, combined with two decades of legacy multibeam and seismic data, are used to map glacial landforms and reconstruct palaeo ice-sheet drainage. During the Last Glacial Maximum, grounded ice reached the continental shelf edge in the eastern but not western Ross Sea. Recessional geomorphic features in the western Ross Sea indicate virtually continuous back-stepping of the ice-sheet grounding line. In the eastern Ross Sea, well-preserved linear features and a lack of small-scale recessional landforms signify rapid lift-off of grounded ice from the bed. Physiography exerted a first-order control on regional ice behaviour, while sea floor geology played an important subsidiary role. Previously published deglacial scenarios for Ross Sea are based on low-spatial-resolution marine data or terrestrial observations; however, this study uses high-resolution basin-wide geomorphology to constrain grounding-line retreat on the continental shelf. Our analysis of retreat patterns suggests that (1) retreat from the western Ross Sea was complex due to strong physiographic controls on ice-sheet drainage; (2) retreat was asynchronous across the Ross Sea and between troughs; (3) the eastern Ross Sea largely deglaciated prior to the western Ross Sea following the formation of a large grounding-line embayment over Whales Deep; and (4) our glacial geomorphic reconstruction converges with recent numerical models that call for significant and complex East Antarctic ice sheet and West Antarctic ice sheet contributions to the ice flow in the Ross Sea.

Evolution of supra-glacial lakes across the Greenland Ice Sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sundal, A. V.; Shepherd, A.; Nienow, P.; Hanna, E.; Palmer, S.; Huybrechts, P.

2009-04-01

We have used 268 cloud-free Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) images spanning the 2003 and 2005-2007 melt seasons to study the seasonal evolution of supra-glacial lakes in three different regions of the Greenland Ice Sheet. Lake area estimates were obtained by developing an automated classification method for their identification based on 250 m resolution MODIS surface reflectance observations. Widespread supra-glacial lake formation and drainage is observed across the ice sheet, with a 2-3 weeks delay in the evolution of total supra-glacial lake area in the northern areas compared to the south-west. The onset of lake growth varies by up to one month inter-annually, and lakes form and drain at progressively higher altitudes during the melt season. A correlation was found between the annual peak in total lake area and modelled annual runoff across all study areas. Our results indicate that, in a future warmer climate (Meehl et al., 2007), Greenland supra-glacial lakes can be expected to form at higher altitudes and over a longer time period than is presently the case, expanding the area and time period over which connections between the ice sheet surface and base may be established (Das et al., 2008) with potential consequences for ice sheet discharge (Zwally et al., 2002). Das, S., Joughin, M., Behn, M., Howat, I., King, M., Lizarralde, D., & Bhatia, M. (2008). Fracture propagation to the base of the Greenland Ice Sheet during supra-glacial lake drainage. Science, 5877, 778-781. Meehl, G.A., Stocker, T.F., Collins W.D., Friedlingstein, P., Gaye, A.T., Gregory, J.M., Kitoh, A., Knutti, R., Murphy, J.M., Noda, A., Raper, S.C.B., Watterson, I.G., Weaver, A.J. & Zhao, Z.C. (2007). Global Climate Projections. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. Zwally, H.J., Abdalati, W., Herring, T., Larson, K., Saba, J. & Steffen, K. (2002). Surface Melt-Induced Acceleration of Greenland Ice-Sheet Flow. Science, 297, 218-221.

Towards a Copernicus Service for Monitoring Polar Ice Sheet Velocity and Discharge using Sentinel-1A and 1B SAR

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wuite, Jan; Nagler, Thomas; Hetzenecker, Markus; Blumthaler, Ursula; Ossowska, Joanna; Rott, Helmut

2017-04-01

The enhanced imaging capabilities of Sentinel-1A and 1B and the systematic acquisition planning of polar regions by ESA form the basis for the development and implementation of an operational system for monitoring ice dynamics and discharge of Antarctica, Greenland and other polar ice caps. Within the framework of the ESA CCI and the Austrian ASAP/FFG programs we implemented an automatic system for generation of ice velocity maps from repeat pass Sentinel-1 Terrain Observation by Progressive Scans (TOPS) mode data applying iterative offset tracking using both coherent and incoherent image cross-correlation. Greenland's margins are monitored by 6 tracks continuously since mid of 2015 with 12 days repeat observations using Sentinel-1A. With the twin satellite Sentinel-1B, launched in April 2016, the repeat acquisition period is reduced to only 6 days allowing frequent velocity retrievals - even in regions with high accumulation rates and very fast flow - and providing insight for studying short-term variations of ice flow and discharge. The Sentinel-1 ice velocity products continue the sparse coverage in time and space of previous velocity mapping efforts. The annual Greenland wide winter acquisition campaigns of 4 to 6 repeat track observations, acquired within a few weeks, provide nearly gapless and seamless ice sheet wide flow velocity maps on a yearly basis which are important for ice sheet modelling purposes and accurate mass balance assessments. An Antarctic ice sheet wide ice velocity map (with polar gap) was generated from Sentinel-1A data, acquired within 8 months, providing an important benchmark for gauging future changes in ice dynamics. For regions with significant warming continuous monitoring of ice streams with 6 to 12-day repeat intervals, exploiting both satellites, is ongoing to detect changes of ice flow as indicators of climate change. We present annual ice sheet wide velocity maps of Greenland from 2014/15 to 2016/17 and Antarctica from 2015/16 as well as dense time series of short-term velocity changes of outlet glaciers since 2014. We will highlight the improvements of the dual satellite constellation of Sentinel-1A and 1B, in particular for fast moving glaciers and regions with high accumulation rates. Derived surface velocities are combined with ice thickness from airborne Radio Echo Sounding data to compute ice discharge and its short-term variation across flux gates of major outlet glaciers in Greenland and Antarctica. Ice velocity maps, including dense time series for outlet glaciers, and ice discharge products are made available to registered users through our webtool at cryoportal.enveo.at.

VESL: The Virtual Earth Sheet Laboratory for Ice Sheet Modeling and Visualization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, D. L. C.; Larour, E. Y.; Quinn, J. D.; Halkides, D. J.

2016-12-01

We introduce the Virtual Earth System Laboratory (VESL), a scientific modeling and visualization tool delivered through an integrated web portal for dissemination of data, simulation of physical processes, and promotion of climate literacy. The current prototype leverages NASA's Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM), a state-of-the-art polar ice sheet dynamics model developed at the Jet Propulsion Lab and UC Irvine. We utilize the Emscripten source-to-source compiler to convert the C/C++ ISSM engine core to JavaScript, and bundled pre/post-processing JS scripts to be compatible with the existing ISSM Python/Matlab API. Researchers using VESL will be able to effectively present their work for public dissemination with little-to-no additional post-processing. This will allow for faster publication in peer-reviewed journals and adaption of results for educational applications. Through future application of this concept to multiple aspects of the Earth System, VESL has the potential to broaden data applications in the geosciences and beyond. At this stage, we seek feedback from the greater scientific and public outreach communities regarding the ease of use and feature set of VESL, as we plan its expansion, and aim to achieve more rapid communication and presentation of scientific results.

Dynamic Inland Propagation of Thinning Due to Ice Loss at the Margins of the Greenland Ice Sheet

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, Wei Li; Li, Jun J.; Zwally, H. Jay

2012-01-01

Mass-balance analysis of the Greenland ice sheet based on surface elevation changes observed by the European Remote-sensing Satellite (ERS) (1992-2002) and Ice, Cloud and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) (2003-07) indicates that the strongly increased mass loss at lower elevations (<2000 m) of the ice sheet, as observed during 2003-07, appears to induce interior ice thinning at higher elevations. In this paper, we perform a perturbation experiment with a three-dimensional anisotropic ice-flow model (AIF model) to investigate this upstream propagation. Observed thinning rates in the regions below 2000m elevation are used as perturbation inputs. The model runs with perturbation for 10 years show that the extensive mass loss at the ice-sheet margins does in fact cause interior thinning on short timescales (i.e. decadal). The modeled pattern of thinning over the ice sheet agrees with the observations, which implies that the strong mass loss since the early 2000s at low elevations has had a dynamic impact on the entire ice sheet. The modeling results also suggest that even if the large mass loss at the margins stopped, the interior ice sheet would continue thinning for 300 years and would take thousands of years for full dynamic recovery.

Glacier seismology: eavesdropping on the ice-bed interface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walter, F.; Röösli, C.

2015-12-01

Glacier sliding plays a central role in ice dynamics. A number of remote sensing and deep drilling initiatives have therefore focused on the ice-bed interface. Although these techniques have provided valuable insights into bed properties, they do not supply theorists with data of sufficient temporal and spatial resolution to rigorously test mathematical sliding laws. As an alternative, passive seismic techniques have gained popularity in glacier monitoring. Analysis of glacier-related seismic sources ('icequakes') has become a useful technique to study inaccessible regions of the cryosphere, including the ice-bed interface. Seismic monitoring networks on the polar ice sheets have shown that ice sliding is not only a smooth process involving viscous deformation and regelation of basal ice layers. Instead, ice streams exhibit sudden slip episodes over their beds and intermittent phases of partial or complete stagnation. Here we discuss new and recently published discoveries of basal seismic sources beneath various glacial bodies. We revisit basal seismicity of hard-bedded Alpine glaciers, which is not the result of pure stick-slip motion. Sudden changes in seismicity suggest that the local configuration of the subglacial drainage system undergoes changes on sub daily time scales. Accordingly, such observations place constraints on basal resistance and sliding of hard-bedded glaciers. In contrast, certain clusters of stick-slip dislocations associated with micro seismicity beneath the Greenland ice sheet undergo diurnal variations in magnitudes and inter event times. This is best explained with a soft till bed, which hosts the shear dislocations and whose strength varies in response to changes in subglacial water pressure. These results suggest that analysis of basal icequakes is well suited for characterizing glacier and ice sheet beds. Future studies should address the relative importance between "smooth" and seismogenic sliding in different glacial environments.

Active volcanism beneath the West Antarctic ice sheet and implications for ice-sheet stability

USGS Publications Warehouse

Blankenship, D.D.; Bell, R.E.; Hodge, S.M.; Brozena, J.M.; Behrendt, John C.; Finn, C.A.

1993-01-01

IT is widely understood that the collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet (WAIS) would cause a global sea level rise of 6 m, yet there continues to be considerable debate about the detailed response of this ice sheet to climate change1-3. Because its bed is grounded well below sea level, the stability of the WAIS may depend on geologically controlled conditions at the base which are independent of climate. In particular, heat supplied to the base of the ice sheet could increase basal melting and thereby trigger ice streaming, by providing the water for a lubricating basal layer of till on which ice streams are thought to slide4,5. Ice streams act to protect the reservoir of slowly moving inland ice from exposure to oceanic degradation, thus enhancing ice-sheet stability. Here we present aerogeophysical evidence for active volcanism and associated elevated heat flow beneath the WAIS near the critical region where ice streaming begins. If this heat flow is indeed controlling ice-stream formation, then penetration of ocean waters inland of the thin hot crust of the active portion of the West Antarctic rift system could lead to the disappearance of ice streams, and possibly trigger a collapse of the inland ice reservoir.

Determining Greenland Ice Sheet Accumulation Rates from Radar Remote Sensing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jezek, Kenneth C.

2001-01-01

An important component of NASA's Program for Arctic Regional Climate Assessment (PARCA) is a mass balance investigation of the Greenland Ice Sheet. The mass balance is calculated by taking the difference between the snow accumulation and the ice discharge of the ice sheet. Uncertainties in this calculation include the snow accumulation rate, which has traditionally been determined by interpolating data from ice core samples taken throughout the ice sheet. The sparse data associated with ice cores, coupled with the high spatial and temporal resolution provided by remote sensing, have motivated scientists to investigate relationships between accumulation rate and microwave observations.

Recent Changes in the Greenland Ice Sheet as Seen from Space

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hall, Dorothy K.

2011-01-01

Many changes in the Greenland Ice Sheet have been reported in the recent scientific literature and have been attributed to various responses of the ice sheet due to regional (and global) warming. Because melting of the ice sheet would contribute approximately 7 m to sea-level rise, the lives and habitat of hundreds of millions of people worldwide would be directly and indirectly affected if continued ice-sheet melting occurs. As mean-annual global temperatures have increased, there has been an increasing focus on studying the Greenland Ice Sheet using available satellite data, and numerous expeditions have been undertaken. Regional "clear-sky" surface temperature increases since the early 1980s in the Arctic, measured using Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) infrared data, range from 0.57+/-0.02 C to 0.72+/-0.10 C per decade. Arctic warming has important implications for ice-sheet mass balance because much of the periphery of the Greenland Ice Sheet is already near O C during the melt season, and is thus vulnerable to more extensive melting if temperatures continue to increase. An increase in melting of the ice sheet would accelerate sea-level rise, an issue of increasing concern to billions of people worldwide. The surface temperature of the ice sheet has been studied in even greater detail using Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data in the six individual drainage basins as well as for the ice sheet as a whole. Surface temperature trends in the decade of the 2000s have not been strong, according to the MODIS measurements. In addition to surface-temperature increases over the last few decades as measured by AVHRR, other changes have been observed such as accelerated movement of many of Greenland's outlet glaciers and sudden draining of supraglacial lakes. Decreasing mass of the ice sheet since (at least) 2002 has been measured using Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) data, along with an build-up of ice at the higher elevations and a decrease of ice at the lower elevations as measured using airborne Lidar and Ice, Cloud and Land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) data. The seminar will address the above issues using a variety of NASA satellite data and ground observations.

Lasting Effects of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods on Subglacial Drainage Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robbins, M.; Hendy, I. L.; Bassis, J. N.; Aciego, S.; Stevenson, E. I.

2017-12-01

Supraglacial lakes forming in the ablation zone around the Greenland Ice Sheet will likely migrate toward higher elevations as polar temperatures rise through the 21st century. Present understanding of lake drainage shows it can temporarily enhance ice sheet motion, but other possible effects and interactions - especially with older pre-existing subglacial reservoirs - remain unexamined. Here we investigate possible enduring effects of the record high 2012 melt year on the en/subglacial hydrologic network, how this network responds to immediate high fluxes of water from floods, and how these phenomena might connect to previously isolated subglacial pools. Lake Hullet is a large ice dammed lake situated in south Greenland 22km up-ice from where Kiattuut Sermiat (KS) branches from a larger outlet glacier. Lake Hullet rests on bedrock and is contained by a bedrock ridge. It drains roughly annually through Lake Hullet's hydrologic network in a glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) when water level rises such that it can flow over the obstructive ridge. Subglacial water samples collected from the toe of KS in July 2013 pre-flood were dated using U isotopes with 222Rn concentrations as well as noble gas ratios. These two independent methods reveal an exceedingly old water age of > 1000 years, indicating existence of isolated enduring subglacial meltwater pool(s). A comparison field study at the KS toe in August and September 2015 re-examined glacial hydrochemistry in a time series. 2015 222Rn concentrations are lower than 2013 values, suggesting less water-rock interaction, a reduction in residence time, and a proximal meltwater source. Increased water volume from the record high 2012 melt year may have enlarged the existing en/subglacial drainage network further into the ice sheet releasing meltwater with longer residence times beneath the ice, with effects lasting into subsequent melt seasons due to the stability of channels maintained from recurrent floods. These preliminary results indicate future increasing temperatures, resultant high surface melt, and lake drainage may affect ice sheet hydrology beyond the immediate melt season with implications for basal lubrication further inland and ice sheet motion.

Estimates of Ice Sheet Mass Balance from Satellite Altimetry: Past and Future

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zwally, H. Jay; Zukor, Dorothy J. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

A major uncertainty in predicting sea level rise is the sensitivity of ice sheet mass balance to climate change, as well as the uncertainty in present mass balance. Since the annual water exchange is about 8 mm of global sea level equivalent, the 20% uncertainty in current mass balance corresponds to 1.6 mm/yr in sea level change. Furthermore, estimates of the sensitivity of the mass balance to temperature change range from perhaps as much as - 10% to + 10% per K. A principal purpose of obtaining ice sheet elevation changes from satellite altimetry has been estimation of the current ice sheet mass balance. Limited information on ice sheet elevation change and their implications about mass balance have been reported by several investigators from radar altimetry (Seasat, Geosat, ERS-1&2). Analysis of ERS-1&2 data over Greenland for 7 years from 1992 to 1999 shows mixed patterns of ice elevation increases and decreases that are significant in terms of regional-scale mass balances. Observed seasonal and interannual variations in ice surface elevation are larger than previously expected because of seasonal and interannUal variations in precipitation, melting, and firn compaction. In the accumulation zone, the variations in firn compaction are modeled as a function of temperature leaving variations in precipitation and the mass balance trend. Significant interannual variations in elevation in some locations, in particular the difference in trends from 1992 to 1995 compared to 1995 to 1999, can be explained by changes in precipitation over Greenland. Over the 7 years, trends in elevation are mostly positive at higher elevations and negative at lower elevations. In addition, trends for the winter seasons (from a trend analysis through the average winter elevations) are more positive than the corresponding trends for the summer. At lower elevations, the 7-year trends in some locations are strongly negative for summer and near zero or slightly positive for winter. These observations also demonstrate the potential for relating the variability in mass balance to changes in precipitation, temperature, and melting. Beginning in January 2002, NASA's ICESat laser altimeter mission will provide significantly better elevation accuracy and spatial coverage to 86E latitude and to the margins of the ice sheets.

LIVVkit: An extensible, python-based, land ice verification and validation toolkit for ice sheet models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kennedy, Joseph H.; Bennett, Andrew R.; Evans, Katherine J.; Price, Stephen; Hoffman, Matthew; Lipscomb, William H.; Fyke, Jeremy; Vargo, Lauren; Boghozian, Adrianna; Norman, Matthew; Worley, Patrick H.

2017-06-01

To address the pressing need to better understand the behavior and complex interaction of ice sheets within the global Earth system, significant development of continental-scale, dynamical ice sheet models is underway. Concurrent to the development of the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM), the corresponding verification and validation (V&V) process is being coordinated through a new, robust, Python-based extensible software package, the Land Ice Verification and Validation toolkit (LIVVkit). Incorporated into the typical ice sheet model development cycle, it provides robust and automated numerical verification, software verification, performance validation, and physical validation analyses on a variety of platforms, from personal laptops to the largest supercomputers. LIVVkit operates on sets of regression test and reference data sets, and provides comparisons for a suite of community prioritized tests, including configuration and parameter variations, bit-for-bit evaluation, and plots of model variables to indicate where differences occur. LIVVkit also provides an easily extensible framework to incorporate and analyze results of new intercomparison projects, new observation data, and new computing platforms. LIVVkit is designed for quick adaptation to additional ice sheet models via abstraction of model specific code, functions, and configurations into an ice sheet model description bundle outside the main LIVVkit structure. Ultimately, through shareable and accessible analysis output, LIVVkit is intended to help developers build confidence in their models and enhance the credibility of ice sheet models overall.

Algae Drive Enhanced Darkening of Bare Ice on the Greenland Ice Sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stibal, Marek; Box, Jason E.; Cameron, Karen A.; Langen, Peter L.; Yallop, Marian L.; Mottram, Ruth H.; Khan, Alia L.; Molotch, Noah P.; Chrismas, Nathan A. M.; Calı Quaglia, Filippo; Remias, Daniel; Smeets, C. J. P. Paul; van den Broeke, Michiel R.; Ryan, Jonathan C.; Hubbard, Alun; Tranter, Martyn; van As, Dirk; Ahlstrøm, Andreas P.

2017-11-01

Surface ablation of the Greenland ice sheet is amplified by surface darkening caused by light-absorbing impurities such as mineral dust, black carbon, and pigmented microbial cells. We present the first quantitative assessment of the microbial contribution to the ice sheet surface darkening, based on field measurements of surface reflectance and concentrations of light-absorbing impurities, including pigmented algae, during the 2014 melt season in the southwestern part of the ice sheet. The impact of algae on bare ice darkening in the study area was greater than that of nonalgal impurities and yielded a net albedo reduction of 0.038 ± 0.0035 for each algal population doubling. We argue that algal growth is a crucial control of bare ice darkening, and incorporating the algal darkening effect will improve mass balance and sea level projections of the Greenland ice sheet and ice masses elsewhere.

The Distribution of Basal Water Beneath the Greenland Ice Sheet from Radio-Echo Sounding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jordan, T.; Williams, C.; Schroeder, D. M.; Martos, Y. M.; Cooper, M.; Siegert, M. J.; Paden, J. D.; Huybrechts, P.; Bamber, J. L.

2017-12-01

There is widespread, but often indirect, evidence that a significant fraction of the Greenland Ice Sheet is thawed at the bed. This includes major outlet glaciers and around the NorthGRIP ice-core in the interior. However, the ice-sheet-wide distribution of basal water is poorly constrained by existing observations, and the spatial relationship between basal water and other ice-sheet and subglacial properties is therefore largely unexplored. In principle, airborne radio-echo sounding (RES) surveys provide the necessary information and spatial coverage to infer the presence of basal water at the ice-sheet scale. However, due to uncertainty and spatial variation in radar signal attenuation, the commonly used water diagnostic, bed-echo reflectivity, is highly ambiguous and prone to spatial bias. Here we introduce a new RES diagnostic for the presence of basal water which incorporates both sharp step-transitions and rapid fluctuations in bed-echo reflectivity. This has the advantage of being (near) independent of attenuation model, and enables a decade of recent Operation Ice Bride RES survey data to be combined in a single map for basal water. The ice-sheet-wide water predictions are compared with: bed topography and drainage network structure, existing knowledge of the thermal state and geothermal heat flux, and ice velocity. In addition to the fast flowing ice-sheet margins, we also demonstrate widespread water routing and storage in parts of the slow-flowing northern interior. Notably, this includes a quasi-linear `corridor' of basal water, extending from NorthGRIP to Petermann glacier, which spatially correlates with a region of locally high (magnetic-derived) geothermal heat flux. The predicted water distribution places a new constraint upon the basal thermal state of the Greenland Ice Sheet, and could be used as an input for ice-sheet model simulations.

Marine evidence of a deconvolving Antarctic Ice Sheet during post-LGM retreat of the Ross Sea sector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prothro, L. O.; Yokoyama, Y.; Simkins, L. M.; Anderson, J. B.; Majewski, W.; Yamane, M.; Ohkouchi, N.

2017-12-01

Predictive models of ice sheet and sea level change are dependent on observational data of ice-sheet behavior for model testing and tuning. The geologic record contains a wealth of information about ice-sheet dynamics, with fewer logistical, spatial, and temporal limitations than are involved in data acquisition along contemporary ice margins. However, past ice-sheet behavior is still largely uncertain or contested due to issues with obtaining meaningful radiocarbon dates. We minimize bias from glacially-reworked carbon and limitations from unknown geomorphic context and uncertainty in sediment facies identification by using careful sedimentary analyses within a geomorphic framework, as well as selection of appropriate dating methods. Our study area, the Ross Sea sector of Antarctica, is the primary drainage outlet for 25% of the continent's grounded ice. During the Last Glacial Maximum, the low-profile, marine-based West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) and the steeper profile, largely land-based East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) converged in the Ross Sea to flow out to or near the continental shelf edge. Geomorphic and sedimentary data reveal that during their subsequent retreat to form the Ross Sea Embayment, the two ice sheets behaved differently, with the WAIS rapidly retreating tens of kilometers followed by extended pauses, while the EAIS retreated steadily, with shorter (decadal- to century-long) pauses. This behavior leads us to believe that the two ice sheets may have contributed diachronously to sea level. By acquiring accurate timing of grounding line retreat, we are able to calculate volumes of ice lost throughout deglaciation, as well as associated sea level contributions. In addition, we attempt to rectify the contradicting marine and terrestrial interpretations of retreat patterns from the Ross Sea continental shelf.

Limited Impact of Subglacial Supercooling Freeze-on for Greenland Ice Sheet Stratigraphy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dow, Christine F.; Karlsson, Nanna B.; Werder, Mauro A.

2018-02-01

Large units of disrupted radiostratigraphy (UDR) are visible in many radio-echo sounding data sets from the Greenland Ice Sheet. This study investigates whether supercooling freeze-on rates at the bed can cause the observed UDR. We use a subglacial hydrology model to calculate both freezing and melting rates at the base of the ice sheet in a distributed sheet and within basal channels. We find that while supercooling freeze-on is a phenomenon that occurs in many areas of the ice sheet, there is no discernible correlation with the occurrence of UDR. The supercooling freeze-on rates are so low that it would require tens of thousands of years with minimal downstream ice motion to form the hundreds of meters of disrupted radiostratigraphy. Overall, the melt rates at the base of the ice sheet greatly overwhelm the freeze-on rates, which has implications for mass balance calculations of Greenland ice.

Enhanced ice sheet growth in Eurasia owing to adjacent ice-dammed lakes.

PubMed

Krinner, G; Mangerud, J; Jakobsson, M; Crucifix, M; Ritz, C; Svendsen, J I

2004-01-29

Large proglacial lakes cool regional summer climate because of their large heat capacity, and have been shown to modify precipitation through mesoscale atmospheric feedbacks, as in the case of Lake Agassiz. Several large ice-dammed lakes, with a combined area twice that of the Caspian Sea, were formed in northern Eurasia about 90,000 years ago, during the last glacial period when an ice sheet centred over the Barents and Kara seas blocked the large northbound Russian rivers. Here we present high-resolution simulations with an atmospheric general circulation model that explicitly simulates the surface mass balance of the ice sheet. We show that the main influence of the Eurasian proglacial lakes was a significant reduction of ice sheet melting at the southern margin of the Barents-Kara ice sheet through strong regional summer cooling over large parts of Russia. In our simulations, the summer melt reduction clearly outweighs lake-induced decreases in moisture and hence snowfall, such as has been reported earlier for Lake Agassiz. We conclude that the summer cooling mechanism from proglacial lakes accelerated ice sheet growth and delayed ice sheet decay in Eurasia and probably also in North America.

Interaction of ice sheets and climate during the past 800 000 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stap, L. B.; van de Wal, R. S. W.; de Boer, B.; Bintanja, R.; Lourens, L. J.

2014-12-01

During the Cenozoic, land ice and climate interacted on many different timescales. On long timescales, the effect of land ice on global climate and sea level is mainly set by large ice sheets in North America, Eurasia, Greenland and Antarctica. The climatic forcing of these ice sheets is largely determined by the meridional temperature profile resulting from radiation and greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing. As a response, the ice sheets cause an increase in albedo and surface elevation, which operates as a feedback in the climate system. To quantify the importance of these climate-land ice processes, a zonally averaged energy balance climate model is coupled to five one-dimensional ice sheet models, representing the major ice sheets. In this study, we focus on the transient simulation of the past 800 000 years, where a high-confidence CO2 record from ice core samples is used as input in combination with Milankovitch radiation changes. We obtain simulations of atmospheric temperature, ice volume and sea level that are in good agreement with recent proxy-data reconstructions. We examine long-term climate-ice-sheet interactions by a comparison of simulations with uncoupled and coupled ice sheets. We show that these interactions amplify global temperature anomalies by up to a factor of 2.6, and that they increase polar amplification by 94%. We demonstrate that, on these long timescales, the ice-albedo feedback has a larger and more global influence on the meridional atmospheric temperature profile than the surface-height-temperature feedback. Furthermore, we assess the influence of CO2 and insolation by performing runs with one or both of these variables held constant. We find that atmospheric temperature is controlled by a complex interaction of CO2 and insolation, and both variables serve as thresholds for northern hemispheric glaciation.

Ice sheet radar altimetry

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zwally, J.

1988-01-01

The surface topography of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets between 72 degrees north and south was mapped using radar altimetry data from the U.S. Navy GEOSAT. The glaciological objectives of this activity were to study the dynamics of the ice flow, changes in the position of floating ice-shelf fronts, and ultimately to measure temporal changes in ice surface elevation indicative of ice sheet mass balance.

Ice shelf fracture parameterization in an ice sheet model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Sainan; Cornford, Stephen L.; Moore, John C.; Gladstone, Rupert; Zhao, Liyun

2017-11-01

Floating ice shelves exert a stabilizing force onto the inland ice sheet. However, this buttressing effect is diminished by the fracture process, which on large scales effectively softens the ice, accelerating its flow, increasing calving, and potentially leading to ice shelf breakup. We add a continuum damage model (CDM) to the BISICLES ice sheet model, which is intended to model the localized opening of crevasses under stress, the transport of those crevasses through the ice sheet, and the coupling between crevasse depth and the ice flow field and to carry out idealized numerical experiments examining the broad impact on large-scale ice sheet and shelf dynamics. In each case we see a complex pattern of damage evolve over time, with an eventual loss of buttressing approximately equivalent to halving the thickness of the ice shelf. We find that it is possible to achieve a similar ice flow pattern using a simple rule of thumb: introducing an enhancement factor ˜ 10 everywhere in the model domain. However, spatially varying damage (or equivalently, enhancement factor) fields set at the start of prognostic calculations to match velocity observations, as is widely done in ice sheet simulations, ought to evolve in time, or grounding line retreat can be slowed by an order of magnitude.

Holocene deceleration of the Greenland Ice Sheet.

PubMed

MacGregor, Joseph A; Colgan, William T; Fahnestock, Mark A; Morlighem, Mathieu; Catania, Ginny A; Paden, John D; Gogineni, S Prasad

2016-02-05

Recent peripheral thinning of the Greenland Ice Sheet is partly offset by interior thickening and is overprinted on its poorly constrained Holocene evolution. On the basis of the ice sheet's radiostratigraphy, ice flow in its interior is slower now than the average speed over the past nine millennia. Generally higher Holocene accumulation rates relative to modern estimates can only partially explain this millennial-scale deceleration. The ice sheet's dynamic response to the decreasing proportion of softer ice from the last glacial period and the deglacial collapse of the ice bridge across Nares Strait also contributed to this pattern. Thus, recent interior thickening of the Greenland Ice Sheet is partly an ongoing dynamic response to the last deglaciation that is large enough to affect interpretation of its mass balance from altimetry. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Long term ice sheet mass change rates and inter-annual variability from GRACE gravimetry.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harig, C.

2017-12-01

The GRACE time series of gravimetry now stretches 15 years since its launch in 2002. Here we use Slepian functions to estimate the long term ice mass trends of Greenland, Antarctica, and several glaciated regions. The spatial representation shows multi-year to decadal regional shifts in accelerations, in agreement with increases in radar derived ice velocity. Interannual variations in ice mass are of particular interest since they can directly link changes in ice sheets to the drivers of change in the polar ocean and atmosphere. The spatial information retained in Slepian functions provides a tool to determine how this link varies in different regions within an ice sheet. We present GRACE observations of the 2013-2014 slowdown in mass loss of the Greenland ice sheet, which was concentrated in specific parts of the ice sheet and in certain months of the year. We also discuss estimating the relative importance of climate factors that control ice mass balance, as a function of location of the glacier/ice cap as well as the spatial variation within an ice sheet by comparing gravimetry with observations of surface air temperature, ocean temperature, etc. as well as model data from climate reanalysis products.

The ice-core record - Climate sensitivity and future greenhouse warming

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lorius, C.; Raynaud, D.; Jouzel, J.; Hansen, J.; Le Treut, H.

1990-01-01

The prediction of future greenhouse-gas-warming depends critically on the sensitivity of earth's climate to increasing atmospheric concentrations of these gases. Data from cores drilled in polar ice sheets show a remarkable correlation between past glacial-interglacial temperature changes and the inferred atmospheric concentration of gases such as carbon dioxide and methane. These and other palaeoclimate data are used to assess the role of greenhouse gases in explaining past global climate change, and the validity of models predicting the effect of increasing concentrations of such gases in the atmosphere.

An Imminent Revolution in Modeling Interactions of Ice Sheets With Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hughes, T.

2008-12-01

Modeling continental ice sheets was inaugurated by meteorologists William Budd and Uwe Radok, with mathematician Richard Jenssen, in 1971. Their model calculated the thermal and mechanical regime using measured surface accumulation rates, temperatures, and elevations, and bed topography. This top-down approach delivered a basal thermal regime of temperatures or melting rates for an assumed basal geothermal heat flux. When Philippe Huybrechts and others incorporated time, largely unknownpast surface conditions had a major effect on present basal thermal conditions. This approach produced ice-sheet models with only a slow response to external forcing, whereas the glacial geological record and climate records from ice and ocean cores show that ice sheets can have rapid changes in size and shape independent of external forcing. These top-down models were wholly inadequate for reconstructing former ice sheets at the LGM for CLIMAP in 1981. Ice-sheet areas,elevations, and volumes provided the albedo, surface topography, and sea-surface area as input to climate models. A bottom-up model based on dated glacial geology was developed to provide the areal extent and basal thermal regime of ice sheets at the LGM. Basal thermal conditions determined ice-bed coupling and therefore the elevation of ice sheets. High convex ice surfaces for slow sheet flow lower about 20 percent when a frozen bed becomes thawed. As further basal melting drowns bedrock bumps that "pin" basal ice, the ice surface becomes concave in fast stream flow that ends as low floating ice shelves at marine ice margins. A revolution in modeling interactions between glaciation, climate, and sea level is driven by new Greenland and Antarctic data from Earth-orbiting satellites, airborne and surface traverses, and deep drilling. We anticipate continuous data acquisition of surface albedo, accumulation/ablation rates, elevations, velocities, and temperatures over a whole ice sheet, mapping basal thermal conditions by radar, seismic, and magnetic profiling, and direct measurement of basal conditions by deep drilling and coring into the ice and the bed. These data allow calculating the geothermal heat flux and mapping flow of basal meltwater from geothermal sources to sinks at the termini of ice streams, which discharge up to 90 percent of the ice. James Fastook has a preliminary solution of the full momentum equation needed to model ice streams. Douglas MacAyeal has pioneered modeling catastrophic ice-shelf disintegration that releases "armadas" of icebergs into the world ocean, to extract heat from ocean surface water and thereby reduce the critical ocean-to-atmosphere heat exchange that drives global climate. Ice sheets are the only component of Earth's climate machine that can destroy itself-- swiftly--and thereby radically and rapidly alter global climate and sea level.

Improving Surface Mass Balance Over Ice Sheets and Snow Depth on Sea Ice

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koenig, Lora Suzanne; Box, Jason; Kurtz, Nathan

2013-01-01

Surface mass balance (SMB) over ice sheets and snow on sea ice (SOSI) are important components of the cryosphere. Large knowledge gaps remain in scientists' abilities to monitor SMB and SOSI, including insufficient measurements and difficulties with satellite retrievals. On ice sheets, snow accumulation is the sole mass gain to SMB, and meltwater runoff can be the dominant single loss factor in extremely warm years such as 2012. SOSI affects the growth and melt cycle of the Earth's polar sea ice cover. The summer of 2012 saw the largest satellite-recorded melt area over the Greenland ice sheet and the smallest satellite-recorded Arctic sea ice extent, making this meeting both timely and relevant.

Ice-sheet response to oceanic forcing.

PubMed

Joughin, Ian; Alley, Richard B; Holland, David M

2012-11-30

The ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica are losing ice at accelerating rates, much of which is a response to oceanic forcing, especially of the floating ice shelves. Recent observations establish a clear correspondence between the increased delivery of oceanic heat to the ice-sheet margin and increased ice loss. In Antarctica, most of these processes are reasonably well understood but have not been rigorously quantified. In Greenland, an understanding of the processes by which warmer ocean temperatures drive the observed retreat remains elusive. Experiments designed to identify the relevant processes are confounded by the logistical difficulties of instrumenting ice-choked fjords with actively calving glaciers. For both ice sheets, multiple challenges remain before the fully coupled ice-ocean-atmosphere models needed for rigorous sea-level projection are available.

The Potsdam Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM-PIK) - Part 2: Dynamic equilibrium simulation of the Antarctic ice sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martin, M. A.; Winkelmann, R.; Haseloff, M.; Albrecht, T.; Bueler, E.; Khroulev, C.; Levermann, A.

2010-08-01

We present a dynamic equilibrium simulation of the ice sheet-shelf system on Antarctica with the Potsdam Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM-PIK). The simulation is initialized with present-day conditions for topography and ice thickness and then run to steady state with constant present-day surface mass balance. Surface temperature and basal melt distribution are parameterized. Grounding lines and calving fronts are free to evolve, and their modeled equilibrium state is compared to observational data. A physically-motivated dynamic calving law based on horizontal spreading rates allows for realistic calving fronts for various types of shelves. Steady-state dynamics including surface velocity and ice flux are analyzed for whole Antarctica and the Ronne-Filchner and Ross ice shelf areas in particular. The results show that the different flow regimes in sheet and shelves, and the transition zone between them, are captured reasonably well, supporting the approach of superposition of SIA and SSA for the representation of fast motion of grounded ice. This approach also leads to a natural emergence of streams in this new 3-D marine ice sheet model.

Antarctic climate and ice-sheet configuration during the early Pliocene interglacial at 4.23 Ma

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Golledge, Nicholas R.; Thomas, Zoë A.; Levy, Richard H.; Gasson, Edward G. W.; Naish, Timothy R.; McKay, Robert M.; Kowalewski, Douglas E.; Fogwill, Christopher J.

2017-07-01

The geometry of Antarctic ice sheets during warm periods of the geological past is difficult to determine from geological evidence, but is important to know because such reconstructions enable a more complete understanding of how the ice-sheet system responds to changes in climate. Here we investigate how Antarctica evolved under orbital and greenhouse gas conditions representative of an interglacial in the early Pliocene at 4.23 Ma, when Southern Hemisphere insolation reached a maximum. Using offline-coupled climate and ice-sheet models, together with a new synthesis of high-latitude palaeoenvironmental proxy data to define a likely climate envelope, we simulate a range of ice-sheet geometries and calculate their likely contribution to sea level. In addition, we use these simulations to investigate the processes by which the West and East Antarctic ice sheets respond to environmental forcings and the timescales over which these behaviours manifest. We conclude that the Antarctic ice sheet contributed 8.6 ± 2.8 m to global sea level at this time, under an atmospheric CO2 concentration identical to present (400 ppm). Warmer-than-present ocean temperatures led to the collapse of West Antarctica over centuries, whereas higher air temperatures initiated surface melting in parts of East Antarctica that over one to two millennia led to lowering of the ice-sheet surface, flotation of grounded margins in some areas, and retreat of the ice sheet into the Wilkes Subglacial Basin. The results show that regional variations in climate, ice-sheet geometry, and topography produce long-term sea-level contributions that are non-linear with respect to the applied forcings, and which under certain conditions exhibit threshold behaviour associated with behavioural tipping points.

Coupled ice sheet - climate simulations of the last glacial inception and last glacial maximum with a model of intermediate complexity that includes a dynamical downscaling of heat and moisture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quiquet, Aurélien; Roche, Didier M.

2017-04-01

Comprehensive fully coupled ice sheet - climate models allowing for multi-millenia transient simulations are becoming available. They represent powerful tools to investigate ice sheet - climate interactions during the repeated retreats and advances of continental ice sheets of the Pleistocene. However, in such models, most of the time, the spatial resolution of the ice sheet model is one order of magnitude lower than the one of the atmospheric model. As such, orography-induced precipitation is only poorly represented. In this work, we briefly present the most recent improvements of the ice sheet - climate coupling within the model of intermediate complexity iLOVECLIM. On the one hand, from the native atmospheric resolution (T21), we have included a dynamical downscaling of heat and moisture at the ice sheet model resolution (40 km x 40 km). This downscaling accounts for feedbacks of sub-grid precipitation on large scale energy and water budgets. From the sub-grid atmospheric variables, we compute an ice sheet surface mass balance required by the ice sheet model. On the other hand, we also explicitly use oceanic temperatures to compute sub-shelf melting at a given depth. Based on palaeo evidences for rate of change of eustatic sea level, we discuss the capability of our new model to correctly simulate the last glacial inception ( 116 kaBP) and the ice volume of the last glacial maximum ( 21 kaBP). We show that the model performs well in certain areas (e.g. Canadian archipelago) but some model biases are consistent over time periods (e.g. Kara-Barents sector). We explore various model sensitivities (e.g. initial state, vegetation, albedo) and we discuss the importance of the downscaling of precipitation for ice nucleation over elevated area and for the surface mass balance of larger ice sheets.

ICESat's Laser Measurements of Polar Ice, Atmosphere, Ocean, and Land

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zwally, H. J.; Schutz, B.; Abdalati, W.; Abshire, J.; Bentley, C.; Brenner, A.; Bufton, J.; Dezio, J.; Hancock, D.; Harding, D.;

Hydrogeologic Controls on Water Dynamics in a Discontinuous Permafrost, Lake-Rich Landscape

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walvoord, M. A.; Briggs, M. A.; Day-Lewis, F. D.; Jepsen, S. M.; Lane, J. W., Jr.; McKenzie, J. M.; Minsley, B. J.; Striegl, R. G.; Voss, C. I.; Wellman, T. P.

2014-12-01

Glacier sliding plays a central role in ice dynamics. A number of remote sensing and deep drilling initiatives have therefore focused on the ice-bed interface. Although these techniques have provided valuable insights into bed properties, they do not supply theorists with data of sufficient temporal and spatial resolution to rigorously test mathematical sliding laws. As an alternative, passive seismic techniques have gained popularity in glacier monitoring. Analysis of glacier-related seismic sources ('icequakes') has become a useful technique to study inaccessible regions of the cryosphere, including the ice-bed interface. Seismic monitoring networks on the polar ice sheets have shown that ice sliding is not only a smooth process involving viscous deformation and regelation of basal ice layers. Instead, ice streams exhibit sudden slip episodes over their beds and intermittent phases of partial or complete stagnation. Here we discuss new and recently published discoveries of basal seismic sources beneath various glacial bodies. We revisit basal seismicity of hard-bedded Alpine glaciers, which is not the result of pure stick-slip motion. Sudden changes in seismicity suggest that the local configuration of the subglacial drainage system undergoes changes on sub daily time scales. Accordingly, such observations place constraints on basal resistance and sliding of hard-bedded glaciers. In contrast, certain clusters of stick-slip dislocations associated with micro seismicity beneath the Greenland ice sheet undergo diurnal variations in magnitudes and inter event times. This is best explained with a soft till bed, which hosts the shear dislocations and whose strength varies in response to changes in subglacial water pressure. These results suggest that analysis of basal icequakes is well suited for characterizing glacier and ice sheet beds. Future studies should address the relative importance between "smooth" and seismogenic sliding in different glacial environments.

Modeling the evolution of the Laurentide Ice Sheet from MIS 3 to the Last Glacial Maximum: an approach using sea level modeling and ice flow dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weisenberg, J.; Pico, T.; Birch, L.; Mitrovica, J. X.

2017-12-01

The history of the Laurentide Ice Sheet since the Last Glacial Maximum ( 26 ka; LGM) is constrained by geological evidence of ice margin retreat in addition to relative sea-level (RSL) records in both the near and far field. Nonetheless, few observations exist constraining the ice sheet's extent across the glacial build-up phase preceding the LGM. Recent work correcting RSL records along the U.S. mid-Atlantic dated to mid-MIS 3 (50-35 ka) for glacial-isostatic adjustment (GIA) infer that the Laurentide Ice Sheet grew by more than three-fold in the 15 ky leading into the LGM. Here we test the plausibility of a late and extremely rapid glaciation by driving a high-resolution ice sheet model, based on a nonlinear diffusion equation for the ice thickness. We initialize this model at 44 ka with the mid-MIS 3 ice sheet configuration proposed by Pico et al. (2017), GIA-corrected basal topography, and mass balance representative of mid-MIS 3 conditions. These simulations predict rapid growth of the eastern Laurentide Ice Sheet, with rates consistent with achieving LGM ice volumes within 15 ky. We use these simulations to refine the initial ice configuration and present an improved and higher resolution model for North American ice cover during mid-MIS 3. In addition we show that assumptions of ice loads during the glacial phase, and the associated reconstructions of GIA-corrected basal topography, produce a bias that can underpredict ice growth rates in the late stages of the glaciation, which has important consequences for our understanding of the speed limit for ice growth on glacial timescales.

The geomorphic signature of past ice sheets in the marine record

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dowdeswell, J. A.

2016-12-01

The deglaciation of high-latitude continental shelves since the Last Glacial Maximum has revealed suites of subglacial and ice-contact landforms that have remained well-preserved beneath tens to hundreds of metres of water. Once ice has retreated, sedimentation is generally low on polar shelves during interglacials and the submarine landforms have not, therefore, been buried by subsequent sedimentation. By contrast, the beds of modern ice sheets are hidden by several thousand metres of ice, which is much more difficult than water to penetrate using geophysical methods. These submarine glacial landforms provide insights into past ice-sheet form and flow, and information on the processes that have taken place beneath former ice sheets. Examples will be shown of streamlined subglacial landforms that indicate the distribution and dimensions of former ice streams on high-latitde continental margins. Distinctive landform assemblages characterise ice stream and inter-ice stream areas. Landforms, including subglacially formed channel systems in inner- and mid-shelf areas, and the lack of them on sedimentary outer shelves, allow inferences to be made about subglacial hydrology. The distribution of grounding-zone wedges and other transverse moraine ridges also provides evidence on the nature of ice-sheet retreat - whether by rapid collapse, episodic retreat or by the slow retreat of grounded ice. Such information can be used to test the predictive capability of ice-sheet numerical models. These marine geophysical and geological observations of submarine glacial landforms enhance our understanding of the form and flow of past ice masses at scales ranging from ice sheets (1000s of km in flow-line and margin length), through ice streams (100s of km long), to surge-type glaciers (10s of km long).

Transient nature of late Pleistocene climate variability.

PubMed

Crowley, Thomas J; Hyde, William T

2008-11-13

Climate in the early Pleistocene varied with a period of 41 kyr and was related to variations in Earth's obliquity. About 900 kyr ago, variability increased and oscillated primarily at a period of approximately 100 kyr, suggesting that the link was then with the eccentricity of Earth's orbit. This transition has often been attributed to a nonlinear response to small changes in external boundary conditions. Here we propose that increasing variablility within the past million years may indicate that the climate system was approaching a second climate bifurcation point, after which it would transition again to a new stable state characterized by permanent mid-latitude Northern Hemisphere glaciation. From this perspective the past million years can be viewed as a transient interval in the evolution of Earth's climate. We support our hypothesis using a coupled energy-balance/ice-sheet model, which furthermore predicts that the future transition would involve a large expansion of the Eurasian ice sheet. The process responsible for the abrupt change seems to be the albedo discontinuity at the snow-ice edge. The best-fit model run, which explains almost 60% of the variance in global ice volume during the past 400 kyr, predicts a rapid transition in the geologically near future to the proposed glacial state. Should it be attained, this state would be more 'symmetric' than the present climate, with comparable areas of ice/sea-ice cover in each hemisphere, and would represent the culmination of 50 million years of evolution from bipolar nonglacial climates to bipolar glacial climates.

Effect of fjord geometry on Greenland mass loss in a warming climate (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nick, F. M.; Vieli, A.; Andersen, M. L.; Joughin, I. R.

2013-12-01

Over the past decade, ice loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet increased as a result of both increased surface melting and ice discharge through the narrow outlet glaciers. The complicated behaviour of narrow outlet glaciers has not yet been fully captured by the ice-sheet models used to predict Greenland's contribution to future sea level. Here we try to quantify the future dynamic contribution of four major marine terminating outlet glaciers to sea-level rise. We use a glacier flow line model that includes a fully dynamic treatment of marine termini to simulate behavior of Helheim, Kangerdlugssuaq, Petermann and Jakobshavn Isbræ. The contribution from these glaciers to sea-level rise is largely (80%) dynamic in origin and is caused by several episodic retreats past overdeepenings in outlet glacier troughs. Model results show that the shape of the glacier and its fjord can alter how the glacier will respond to a changing climate. Dynamic losses are mainly related to channel geometry and occur when an ice front retreats from a basal high through an overdeepening. Subsequent decelerations in retreat and mass loss mostly coincide with a decrease in water depth as the glacier retreats or re-advances to a new or previous bathymetric high. In some cases, channel narrowing may temporarily slowdown the terminus retreat even when the terminus is located on an upward bed slope.

Uncertainty of tipping elements on risk analysis in hydrology under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kiguchi, M.; Iseri, Y.; Tawatari, R.; Kanae, S.; Oki, T.

2015-12-01

Risk analysis in this study characterizes the events that could be caused by climate change and estimates their effects on society. In order to characterize climate change risks, events that might be caused by climate change will be investigated focusing on critical geophysical phenomena such as changes in thermohaline circulation (THC) in oceans and the large-scale melting of the Greenland and other ice sheets. The results of numerical experiments with climate models and paleoclimate studies will be referenced in listing up these phenomena. The trigger mechanisms, tendency to occur and relationship of these phenomena to global climate will be clarified. To clarify that relationship between the RCP scenarios and tipping elements, we identified which year tipping elements in case of "Arctic summer sea ice" and "Greenland ice sheet" are appeared using the increase of global average temperature in 5 GCMs under RCP (2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) from Zickfeld et al. (2013) and IPCC (2013), and tipping point of each tipping elements from IPCC (2013). In case of "Greenland ice sheet" (Tipping point takes a value within the range of 1.0oC and 4.0oC), we found that "Greenland ice sheet" may melt down when the tipping point is 1.0oC as lowest value. On the other hand, when tipping point sets as 4.0oC, it may not melt down except for RCP 8.5. As above, we show the uncertainty of tipping point itself. In future, it is necessary how to reflect such uncertainty in risk analysis in hydrology.

The Gamburtsev mountains and the origin and early evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet.

PubMed

Bo, Sun; Siegert, Martin J; Mudd, Simon M; Sugden, David; Fujita, Shuji; Xiangbin, Cui; Yunyun, Jiang; Xueyuan, Tang; Yuansheng, Li

2009-06-04

Ice-sheet development in Antarctica was a result of significant and rapid global climate change about 34 million years ago. Ice-sheet and climate modelling suggest reductions in atmospheric carbon dioxide (less than three times the pre-industrial level of 280 parts per million by volume) that, in conjunction with the development of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, led to cooling and glaciation paced by changes in Earth's orbit. Based on the present subglacial topography, numerical models point to ice-sheet genesis on mountain massifs of Antarctica, including the Gamburtsev mountains at Dome A, the centre of the present ice sheet. Our lack of knowledge of the present-day topography of the Gamburtsev mountains means, however, that the nature of early glaciation and subsequent development of a continental-sized ice sheet are uncertain. Here we present radar information about the base of the ice at Dome A, revealing classic Alpine topography with pre-existing river valleys overdeepened by valley glaciers formed when the mean summer surface temperature was around 3 degrees C. This landscape is likely to have developed during the initial phases of Antarctic glaciation. According to Antarctic climate history (estimated from offshore sediment records) the Gamburtsev mountains are probably older than 34 million years and were the main centre for ice-sheet growth. Moreover, the landscape has most probably been preserved beneath the present ice sheet for around 14 million years.

Collapse of polar ice sheets during the stage 11 interglacial.

PubMed

Raymo, Maureen E; Mitrovica, Jerry X

2012-03-14

Contentious observations of Pleistocene shoreline features on the tectonically stable islands of Bermuda and the Bahamas have suggested that sea level about 400,000 years ago was more than 20 metres higher than it is today. Geochronologic and geomorphic evidence indicates that these features formed during interglacial marine isotope stage (MIS) 11, an unusually long interval of warmth during the ice age. Previous work has advanced two divergent hypotheses for these shoreline features: first, significant melting of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet, in addition to the collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and the Greenland Ice Sheet; or second, emplacement by a mega-tsunami during MIS 11 (ref. 4, 5). Here we show that the elevations of these features are corrected downwards by ∼10 metres when we account for post-glacial crustal subsidence of these sites over the course of the anomalously long interglacial. On the basis of this correction, we estimate that eustatic sea level rose to ∼6-13 m above the present-day value in the second half of MIS 11. This suggests that both the Greenland Ice Sheet and the West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapsed during the protracted warm period while changes in the volume of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet were relatively minor, thereby resolving the long-standing controversy over the stability of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet during MIS 11.

Airborne Laser Altimetry Mapping of the Greenland Ice Sheet: Application to Mass Balance Assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Abdalati, W.; Krabill, W.; Frederick, E.; Manizade, S.; Martin, C.; Sonntag, J.; Swift, R.; Thomas, R.; Wright, W.; Yungel, J.

2000-01-01

In 1998 and '99, the Arctic Ice Mapping (AIM) program completed resurveys of lines occupied 5 years earlier revealing elevation changes of the Greenland ice sheet and identifying areas of significant thinning, thickening and balance. In planning these surveys, consideration had to be given to the spatial constraints associated with aircraft operation, the spatial nature of ice sheet behavior, and limited resources, as well as temporal issues, such as seasonal and interannual variability in the context of measurement accuracy. This paper examines the extent to which the sampling and survey strategy is valid for drawing conclusions on the current state of balance of the Greenland ice sheet. The surveys covered the entire ice sheet with an average distance of 21.4 km between each location on the ice sheet and the nearest flight line. For most of the ice sheet, the elevation changes show relatively little spatial variability, and their magnitudes are significantly smaller than the observed elevation change signal. As a result, we conclude that the density of the sampling and the accuracy of the measurements are sufficient to draw meaningful conclusions on the state of balance of the entire ice sheet over the five-year survey period. Outlet glaciers, however, show far more spatial and temporal variability, and each of the major ones is likely to require individual surveys in order to determine its balance.

LIVVkit: An extensible, python-based, land ice verification and validation toolkit for ice sheet models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kennedy, Joseph H.; Bennett, Andrew R.; Evans, Katherine J.

To address the pressing need to better understand the behavior and complex interaction of ice sheets within the global Earth system, significant development of continental-scale, dynamical ice sheet models is underway. Concurrent to the development of the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM), the corresponding verification and validation (V&V) process is being coordinated through a new, robust, Python-based extensible software package, the Land Ice Verification and Validation toolkit (LIVVkit). Incorporated into the typical ice sheet model development cycle, it provides robust and automated numerical verification, software verification, performance validation, and physical validation analyses on a variety of platforms, from personal laptopsmore » to the largest supercomputers. LIVVkit operates on sets of regression test and reference data sets, and provides comparisons for a suite of community prioritized tests, including configuration and parameter variations, bit-for-bit evaluation, and plots of model variables to indicate where differences occur. LIVVkit also provides an easily extensible framework to incorporate and analyze results of new intercomparison projects, new observation data, and new computing platforms. LIVVkit is designed for quick adaptation to additional ice sheet models via abstraction of model specific code, functions, and configurations into an ice sheet model description bundle outside the main LIVVkit structure. Furthermore, through shareable and accessible analysis output, LIVVkit is intended to help developers build confidence in their models and enhance the credibility of ice sheet models overall.« less

LIVVkit: An extensible, python-based, land ice verification and validation toolkit for ice sheet models

DOE PAGES

Kennedy, Joseph H.; Bennett, Andrew R.; Evans, Katherine J.; ...

2017-03-23

To address the pressing need to better understand the behavior and complex interaction of ice sheets within the global Earth system, significant development of continental-scale, dynamical ice sheet models is underway. Concurrent to the development of the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM), the corresponding verification and validation (V&V) process is being coordinated through a new, robust, Python-based extensible software package, the Land Ice Verification and Validation toolkit (LIVVkit). Incorporated into the typical ice sheet model development cycle, it provides robust and automated numerical verification, software verification, performance validation, and physical validation analyses on a variety of platforms, from personal laptopsmore » to the largest supercomputers. LIVVkit operates on sets of regression test and reference data sets, and provides comparisons for a suite of community prioritized tests, including configuration and parameter variations, bit-for-bit evaluation, and plots of model variables to indicate where differences occur. LIVVkit also provides an easily extensible framework to incorporate and analyze results of new intercomparison projects, new observation data, and new computing platforms. LIVVkit is designed for quick adaptation to additional ice sheet models via abstraction of model specific code, functions, and configurations into an ice sheet model description bundle outside the main LIVVkit structure. Furthermore, through shareable and accessible analysis output, LIVVkit is intended to help developers build confidence in their models and enhance the credibility of ice sheet models overall.« less

Dynamic influence of pinning points on marine ice-sheet stability: a numerical study in Dronning Maud Land, East Antarctica

DOE PAGES

Favier, Lionel; Pattyn, Frank; Berger, Sophie; ...

2016-11-09

The East Antarctic ice sheet is likely more stable than its West Antarctic counterpart because its bed is largely lying above sea level. However, the ice sheet in Dronning Maud Land, East Antarctica, contains marine sectors that are in contact with the ocean through overdeepened marine basins interspersed by grounded ice promontories and ice rises, pinning and stabilising the ice shelves. In this paper, we use the ice-sheet model BISICLES to investigate the effect of sub-ice-shelf melting, using a series of scenarios compliant with current values, on the ice-dynamic stability of the outlet glaciers between the Lazarev and Roi Baudouinmore » ice shelves over the next millennium. Overall, the sub-ice-shelf melting substantially impacts the sea-level contribution. Locally, we predict a short-term rapid grounding-line retreat of the overdeepened outlet glacier Hansenbreen, which further induces the transition of the bordering ice promontories into ice rises. Furthermore, our analysis demonstrated that the onset of the marine ice-sheet retreat and subsequent promontory transition into ice rise is controlled by small pinning points, mostly uncharted in pan-Antarctic datasets. Pinning points have a twofold impact on marine ice sheets. They decrease the ice discharge by buttressing effect, and they play a crucial role in initialising marine ice sheets through data assimilation, leading to errors in ice-shelf rheology when omitted. Our results show that unpinning increases the sea-level rise by 10%, while omitting the same pinning point in data assimilation decreases it by 10%, but the more striking effect is in the promontory transition time, advanced by two centuries for unpinning and delayed by almost half a millennium when the pinning point is missing in data assimilation. As a result, pinning points exert a subtle influence on ice dynamics at the kilometre scale, which calls for a better knowledge of the Antarctic margins.« less

Dynamic influence of pinning points on marine ice-sheet stability: a numerical study in Dronning Maud Land, East Antarctica

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Favier, Lionel; Pattyn, Frank; Berger, Sophie

The East Antarctic ice sheet is likely more stable than its West Antarctic counterpart because its bed is largely lying above sea level. However, the ice sheet in Dronning Maud Land, East Antarctica, contains marine sectors that are in contact with the ocean through overdeepened marine basins interspersed by grounded ice promontories and ice rises, pinning and stabilising the ice shelves. In this paper, we use the ice-sheet model BISICLES to investigate the effect of sub-ice-shelf melting, using a series of scenarios compliant with current values, on the ice-dynamic stability of the outlet glaciers between the Lazarev and Roi Baudouinmore » ice shelves over the next millennium. Overall, the sub-ice-shelf melting substantially impacts the sea-level contribution. Locally, we predict a short-term rapid grounding-line retreat of the overdeepened outlet glacier Hansenbreen, which further induces the transition of the bordering ice promontories into ice rises. Furthermore, our analysis demonstrated that the onset of the marine ice-sheet retreat and subsequent promontory transition into ice rise is controlled by small pinning points, mostly uncharted in pan-Antarctic datasets. Pinning points have a twofold impact on marine ice sheets. They decrease the ice discharge by buttressing effect, and they play a crucial role in initialising marine ice sheets through data assimilation, leading to errors in ice-shelf rheology when omitted. Our results show that unpinning increases the sea-level rise by 10%, while omitting the same pinning point in data assimilation decreases it by 10%, but the more striking effect is in the promontory transition time, advanced by two centuries for unpinning and delayed by almost half a millennium when the pinning point is missing in data assimilation. As a result, pinning points exert a subtle influence on ice dynamics at the kilometre scale, which calls for a better knowledge of the Antarctic margins.« less

Response of the Antarctic ice sheet to ocean forcing using the POPSICLES coupled ice sheet-ocean model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martin, D. F.; Asay-Davis, X.; Price, S. F.; Cornford, S. L.; Maltrud, M. E.; Ng, E. G.; Collins, W.

2014-12-01

We present the response of the continental Antarctic ice sheet to sub-shelf-melt forcing derived from POPSICLES simulation results covering the full Antarctic Ice Sheet and the Southern Ocean spanning the period 1990 to 2010. Simulations are performed at 0.1 degree (~5 km) ocean resolution and ice sheet resolution as fine as 500 m using adaptive mesh refinement. A comparison of fully-coupled and comparable standalone ice-sheet model results demonstrates the importance of two-way coupling between the ice sheet and the ocean. The POPSICLES model couples the POP2x ocean model, a modified version of the Parallel Ocean Program (Smith and Gent, 2002), and the BISICLES ice-sheet model (Cornford et al., 2012). BISICLES makes use of adaptive mesh refinement to fully resolve dynamically-important regions like grounding lines and employs a momentum balance similar to the vertically-integrated formulation of Schoof and Hindmarsh (2009). Results of BISICLES simulations have compared favorably to comparable simulations with a Stokes momentum balance in both idealized tests like MISMIP3D (Pattyn et al., 2013) and realistic configurations (Favier et al. 2014). POP2x includes sub-ice-shelf circulation using partial top cells (Losch, 2008) and boundary layer physics following Holland and Jenkins (1999), Jenkins (2001), and Jenkins et al. (2010). Standalone POP2x output compares well with standard ice-ocean test cases (e.g., ISOMIP; Losch, 2008) and other continental-scale simulations and melt-rate observations (Kimura et al., 2013; Rignot et al., 2013). A companion presentation, "Present-day circum-Antarctic simulations using the POPSICLES coupled land ice-ocean model" in session C027 describes the ocean-model perspective of this work, while we focus on the response of the ice sheet and on details of the model. The figure shows the BISICLES-computed vertically-integrated ice velocity field about 1 month into a 20-year coupled Antarctic run. Groundling lines are shown in green.

Study of elevation changes along a profile crossing the Greenland Ice Sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hvidegaard, S. M.; Sandberg, L.

2009-04-01

In recent years much research has focused on determining how the Greenland Ice Sheet is responding to the observed climate changes. There is wide agreement on the fact that the Ice Sheet is currently loosing mass, and studies have shown that the mass loss is found near the ice edge and that no significant changes are found in the central part of the Ice Sheet. As a part of European Space Agency's CryoSat Validation Experiment (CryoVEx) running from 2004 to 2008, the National Space Institute (DTU Space) measured the elevations along a profile crossing the Greenland Ice Sheet. The elevation observations were carried out in 2004, 2006 and 2008 using airborne laser altimetry from a Twin Otter aircraft. The observed profile follows the old EGIG line (Expédition Glaciologique au Groenland, measured in the 1950's) situated between 69-71N, heading nearly east-west. This unique dataset gives the opportunity to study elevation changes along the profile crossing the ice sheet. With this work, we outline the observed elevation changes from the different zones of the ice sheet. We furthermore compare elevation changes based on coincident ICESat and airborne laser altimeter data.

A 25-year Record of Antarctic Ice Sheet Elevation and Mass Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shepherd, A.; Muir, A. S.; Sundal, A.; McMillan, M.; Briggs, K.; Hogg, A.; Engdahl, M.; Gilbert, L.

2017-12-01

Since 1992, the European Remote-Sensing (ERS-1 and ERS-2), ENVISAT, and CryoSat-2 satellite radar altimeters have measured the Antarctic ice sheet surface elevation, repeatedly, at approximately monthly intervals. These data constitute the longest continuous record of ice sheet wide change. In this paper, we use these observations to determine changes in the elevation, volume and mass of the East Antarctic and West Antarctic ice sheets, and of parts of the Antarctic Peninsula ice sheet, over a 25-year period. The root mean square difference between elevation rates computed from our survey and 257,296 estimates determined from airborne laser measurements is 54 cm/yr. The longevity of the satellite altimeter data record allows to identify and chart the evolution of changes associated with meteorology and ice flow, and we estimate that 3.6 % of the continental ice sheet, and 21.7 % of West Antarctica, is in a state of dynamical imbalance. Based on this partitioning, we estimate the mass balance of the East and West Antarctic ice sheet drainage basins and the root mean square difference between these and independent estimates derived from satellite gravimetry is less than 5 Gt yr-1.

Implementation of higher-order vertical finite elements in ISSM v4.13 for improved ice sheet flow modeling over paleoclimate timescales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cuzzone, Joshua K.; Morlighem, Mathieu; Larour, Eric; Schlegel, Nicole; Seroussi, Helene

2018-05-01

Paleoclimate proxies are being used in conjunction with ice sheet modeling experiments to determine how the Greenland ice sheet responded to past changes, particularly during the last deglaciation. Although these comparisons have been a critical component in our understanding of the Greenland ice sheet sensitivity to past warming, they often rely on modeling experiments that favor minimizing computational expense over increased model physics. Over Paleoclimate timescales, simulating the thermal structure of the ice sheet has large implications on the modeled ice viscosity, which can feedback onto the basal sliding and ice flow. To accurately capture the thermal field, models often require a high number of vertical layers. This is not the case for the stress balance computation, however, where a high vertical resolution is not necessary. Consequently, since stress balance and thermal equations are generally performed on the same mesh, more time is spent on the stress balance computation than is otherwise necessary. For these reasons, running a higher-order ice sheet model (e.g., Blatter-Pattyn) over timescales equivalent to the paleoclimate record has not been possible without incurring a large computational expense. To mitigate this issue, we propose a method that can be implemented within ice sheet models, whereby the vertical interpolation along the z axis relies on higher-order polynomials, rather than the traditional linear interpolation. This method is tested within the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM) using quadratic and cubic finite elements for the vertical interpolation on an idealized case and a realistic Greenland configuration. A transient experiment for the ice thickness evolution of a single-dome ice sheet demonstrates improved accuracy using the higher-order vertical interpolation compared to models using the linear vertical interpolation, despite having fewer degrees of freedom. This method is also shown to improve a model's ability to capture sharp thermal gradients in an ice sheet particularly close to the bed, when compared to models using a linear vertical interpolation. This is corroborated in a thermal steady-state simulation of the Greenland ice sheet using a higher-order model. In general, we find that using a higher-order vertical interpolation decreases the need for a high number of vertical layers, while dramatically reducing model runtime for transient simulations. Results indicate that when using a higher-order vertical interpolation, runtimes for a transient ice sheet relaxation are upwards of 5 to 7 times faster than using a model which has a linear vertical interpolation, and this thus requires a higher number of vertical layers to achieve a similar result in simulated ice volume, basal temperature, and ice divide thickness. The findings suggest that this method will allow higher-order models to be used in studies investigating ice sheet behavior over paleoclimate timescales at a fraction of the computational cost than would otherwise be needed for a model using a linear vertical interpolation.

Antarctic subglacial groundwater: measurement concept and potential influence on ice flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kulessa, Bernd; Siegert, Martin; Bougamont, Marion; Christoffersen, Poul; Key, Kerry; Andersen, Kristoffer; Booth, Adam; Smith, Andrew

2017-04-01

Is groundwater abundant in Antarctica and does it modulate ice flow? Answering this question matters because ice streams flow by gliding over a wet substrate of till. Water fed to ice-stream beds thus influences ice-sheet dynamics and, potentially, sea-level rise. It is recognised that both till and the sedimentary basins from which it originates are porous and could host a reservoir of mobile groundwater that interacts with the subglacial interfacial system. According to recent numerical modelling up to half of all water available for basal lubrication, and time lags between hydrological forcing and ice-sheet response as long as millennia, may have been overlooked in models of ice flow. Here, we review evidence in support of Antarctic groundwater and propose how it can be measured to ascertain the extent to which it modulates ice flow. We present new seismoelectric soundings of subglacial till, and new magnetotelluric and transient electromagnetic forward models of subglacial groundwater reservoirs. We demonstrate that multi-facetted and integrated geophysical datasets can detect, delineate and quantify the groundwater contents of subglacial sedimentary basins and, potentially, monitor groundwater exchange rates between subglacial till layers. We thus describe a new area of glaciological investigation and how it should progress in future.

Ice cores and SeaRISE: What we do (and don't) know

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Alley, Richard B.

1991-01-01

Ice core analyses are needed in SeaRISE to learn what the West Antarctic ice sheet and other marine ice sheets were like in the past, what climate changes led to their present states, and how they behave. The major results of interest to SeaRISE from previous ice core analyses in West Antarctic are that the end of the last ice age caused temperature and accumulation rate increases in inland regions, leading to ice sheet thickening followed by thinning to the present.

Radiostratigraphy and age structure of the Greenland Ice Sheet

PubMed Central

MacGregor, Joseph A; Fahnestock, Mark A; Catania, Ginny A; Paden, John D; Prasad Gogineni, S; Young, S Keith; Rybarski, Susan C; Mabrey, Alexandria N; Wagman, Benjamin M; Morlighem, Mathieu

2015-01-01

Several decades of ice-penetrating radar surveys of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets have observed numerous widespread internal reflections. Analysis of this radiostratigraphy has produced valuable insights into ice sheet dynamics and motivates additional mapping of these reflections. Here we present a comprehensive deep radiostratigraphy of the Greenland Ice Sheet from airborne deep ice-penetrating radar data collected over Greenland by The University of Kansas between 1993 and 2013. To map this radiostratigraphy efficiently, we developed new techniques for predicting reflection slope from the phase recorded by coherent radars. When integrated along track, these slope fields predict the radiostratigraphy and simplify semiautomatic reflection tracing. Core-intersecting reflections were dated using synchronized depth-age relationships for six deep ice cores. Additional reflections were dated by matching reflections between transects and by extending reflection-inferred depth-age relationships using the local effective vertical strain rate. The oldest reflections, dating to the Eemian period, are found mostly in the northern part of the ice sheet. Within the onset regions of several fast-flowing outlet glaciers and ice streams, reflections typically do not conform to the bed topography. Disrupted radiostratigraphy is also observed in a region north of the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream that is not presently flowing rapidly. Dated reflections are used to generate a gridded age volume for most of the ice sheet and also to determine the depths of key climate transitions that were not observed directly. This radiostratigraphy provides a new constraint on the dynamics and history of the Greenland Ice Sheet. Key Points Phase information predicts reflection slope and simplifies reflection tracing Reflections can be dated away from ice cores using a simple ice flow model Radiostratigraphy is often disrupted near the onset of fast ice flow PMID:26213664

A new full-Stokes model as a tool for basal inversions.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kyrke-Smith, Teresa M.; Hilmar Gudmundsson, G.; Farrell, Patrick E.

2016-04-01

High resolution models of ice sheet dynamics are required to make accurate predictions of the future mass balance of ice sheets. These require knowledge of flow conditions at the bed of the ice, however, the inaccessibility of the bed means there exist few observational constraints. Inverse methods are therefore commonly used to obtain information about the nature of basal control using given surface observations. We present a new 3D Stokes solver written using FEniCS with the potential to carry out second-order inversions for basal slipperiness. We will be applying the model to Pine Island Glacier, Antarctica. Pine Island Glacier is one of the fastest flowing and most rapidly changing ice streams in Antarctica, and is currently contributing to sea-level rise at an increasing rate. Recent field seasons as part of the iSTAR project have acquired high-resolution in-situ geophysical measurements; results from our model will be compared with these to try and increase understanding about the conditions at the bed of Pine Island Glacier.

Sea-level and solid-Earth deformation feedbacks in ice sheet modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Konrad, Hannes; Sasgen, Ingo; Klemann, Volker; Thoma, Malte; Grosfeld, Klaus; Martinec, Zdeněk

2014-05-01

The interactions of ice sheets with the sea level and the solid Earth are important factors for the stability of the ice shelves and the tributary inland ice (e.g. Thomas and Bentley, 1978; Gomez et al, 2012). First, changes in ice extent and ice thickness induce viscoelastic deformation of the Earth surface and Earth's gravity field. In turn, global and local changes in sea level and bathymetry affect the grounding line and, subsequently, alter the ice dynamic behaviour. Here, we investigate these feedbacks for a synthetic ice sheet configuration as well as for the Antarctic ice sheet using a three-dimensional thermomechanical ice sheet and shelf model, coupled to a viscoelastic solid-Earth and gravitationally self-consistent sea-level model. The respective ice sheet undergoes a forcing from rising sea level, warming ocean, and/or changing surface mass balance. The coupling is realized by exchanging ice thickness, Earth surface deformation and sea level periodically. We apply several sets of viscoelastic Earth parameters to our coupled model, e.g. simulating a low-viscous upper mantle present at the Antarctic Peninsula (Ivins et al., 2011). Special focus of our study lies on the evolution of Earth surface deformation and local sea level changes, as well as on the accompanying grounding line evolution. N. Gomez, D. Pollard, J. X. Mitrovica, P. Huybers, and P. U. Clark 2012. Evolution of a coupled marine ice sheet-sea level model, J. Geophys. Res., 117, F01013, doi:10.1029/2011JF002128. E. R. Ivins, M. M. Watkins, D.-N. Yuan, R. Dietrich, G. Casassa, and A. Rülke 2011. On-land ice loss and glacial isostatic adjustment at the Drake Passage: 2003-2009, J. Geophys. Res. 116, B02403, doi: 10.1029/2010JB007607 R. H. Thomas and C. R. Bentley 1978. A model for Holocene retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, Quaternary Research, 10 (2), pages 150-170, doi: 10.1016/0033-5894(78)90098-4.

BRITICE-CHRONO: Constraining rates and style of marine-influenced ice sheet decay to provide a data-rich playground for ice sheet modellers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clark, Chris

2014-05-01

Uncertainty exists regarding the fate of the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets and how they will respond to forcings from sea level and atmospheric and ocean temperatures. If we want to know more about the mechanisms and rate of change of shrinking ice sheets, then why not examine an ice sheet that has fully disappeared and track its retreat through time? If achieved in enough detail such information could become a data-rich playground for improving the next breed of numerical ice sheet models to be used in ice and sea level forecasting. We regard that the last British-Irish Ice Sheet is a good target for this work, on account of its small size, density of information and with its numerous researchers already investigating it. BRITICE-CHRONO is a large (>45 researchers) NERC-funded consortium project comprising Quaternary scientists and glaciologists who will search the seafloor around Britain and Ireland and parts of the landmass in order to find and extract samples of sand, rock and organic matter that can be dated (OSL; Cosmogenic; 14C) to reveal the timing and rate of change of the collapsing British-Irish Ice Sheet. The purpose is to produce a high resolution dataset on the demise on an ice sheet - from the continental shelf edge and across the marine to terrestrial transition. Some 800 new date assessments will be added to those that already exist. This poster reports on the hypotheses that underpin the work. Data on retreat will be collected by focusing on 8 transects running from the continental shelf edge to a short distance (10s km) onshore and acquiring marine and terrestrial samples for geochronometric dating. The project includes funding for 587 radiocarbon, 140 OSL and 158 TCN samples for surface exposure dating; with sampling accomplished by two research cruises and 16 fieldwork campaigns. Results will reveal the timing and rate of change of ice margin recession for each transect, and combined with existing landform and dating databases, will be used to build an ice sheet-wide empirical reconstruction of retreat incorporating Bayesian analysis to assess uncertainty. We invite and encourage ice sheet modellers to use our data for modelling experiments and in particular to explore the role of bed topography in modulating ice retreat.

Modelling present-day basal melt rates for Antarctic ice shelves using a parametrization of buoyant meltwater plumes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lazeroms, Werner M. J.; Jenkins, Adrian; Hilmar Gudmundsson, G.; van de Wal, Roderik S. W.

2018-01-01

Basal melting below ice shelves is a major factor in mass loss from the Antarctic Ice Sheet, which can contribute significantly to possible future sea-level rise. Therefore, it is important to have an adequate description of the basal melt rates for use in ice-dynamical models. Most current ice models use rather simple parametrizations based on the local balance of heat between ice and ocean. In this work, however, we use a recently derived parametrization of the melt rates based on a buoyant meltwater plume travelling upward beneath an ice shelf. This plume parametrization combines a non-linear ocean temperature sensitivity with an inherent geometry dependence, which is mainly described by the grounding-line depth and the local slope of the ice-shelf base. For the first time, this type of parametrization is evaluated on a two-dimensional grid covering the entire Antarctic continent. In order to apply the essentially one-dimensional parametrization to realistic ice-shelf geometries, we present an algorithm that determines effective values for the grounding-line depth and basal slope in any point beneath an ice shelf. Furthermore, since detailed knowledge of temperatures and circulation patterns in the ice-shelf cavities is sparse or absent, we construct an effective ocean temperature field from observational data with the purpose of matching (area-averaged) melt rates from the model with observed present-day melt rates. Our results qualitatively replicate large-scale observed features in basal melt rates around Antarctica, not only in terms of average values, but also in terms of the spatial pattern, with high melt rates typically occurring near the grounding line. The plume parametrization and the effective temperature field presented here are therefore promising tools for future simulations of the Antarctic Ice Sheet requiring a more realistic oceanic forcing.

Greenland Regional and Ice Sheet-wide Geometry Sensitivity to Boundary and Initial conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Logan, L. C.; Narayanan, S. H. K.; Greve, R.; Heimbach, P.

2017-12-01

Ice sheet and glacier model outputs require inputs from uncertainly known initial and boundary conditions, and other parameters. Conservation and constitutive equations formalize the relationship between model inputs and outputs, and the sensitivity of model-derived quantities of interest (e.g., ice sheet volume above floatation) to model variables can be obtained via the adjoint model of an ice sheet. We show how one particular ice sheet model, SICOPOLIS (SImulation COde for POLythermal Ice Sheets), depends on these inputs through comprehensive adjoint-based sensitivity analyses. SICOPOLIS discretizes the shallow-ice and shallow-shelf approximations for ice flow, and is well-suited for paleo-studies of Greenland and Antarctica, among other computational domains. The adjoint model of SICOPOLIS was developed via algorithmic differentiation, facilitated by the source transformation tool OpenAD (developed at Argonne National Lab). While model sensitivity to various inputs can be computed by costly methods involving input perturbation simulations, the time-dependent adjoint model of SICOPOLIS delivers model sensitivities to initial and boundary conditions throughout time at lower cost. Here, we explore both the sensitivities of the Greenland Ice Sheet's entire and regional volumes to: initial ice thickness, precipitation, basal sliding, and geothermal flux over the Holocene epoch. Sensitivity studies such as described here are now accessible to the modeling community, based on the latest version of SICOPOLIS that has been adapted for OpenAD to generate correct and efficient adjoint code.

Multi-channel Ice Penetrating Radar Traverse for Estimates of Firn Density in the Percolation Zone, Western Greenland Ice Sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meehan, T.; Osterberg, E. C.; Lewis, G.; Overly, T. B.; Hawley, R. L.; Bradford, J.; Marshall, H. P.

2016-12-01

To better predict the response of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) to future warming, leading edge Regional Climate Models (RCM) must be calibrated with in situ measurements of recent accumulation and melt. Mass balance estimates averaged across the entire Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) vary between models by more than 30 percent, and regional comparisons of mass balance reconstructions in Greenland vary by 100 percent or more. Greenland Traverse for Accumulation and Climate Studies (GreenTrACS) is a multi-year and multi-disciplinary 1700 km science traverse from Raven/Dye2 in SW Greenland, to Summit Station. Multi-offset radar measurements can provide high accuracy electromagnetic (EM) velocity estimates of the firn to within (+-) 0.002 to 0.003 m/ns. EM velocity, in turn, can be used to estimate bulk firn density. Using a mixing equation such as the CRIM Equation we use the measured EM velocity, along with the known EM velocity in air and ice, to estimate bulk density. During spring 2016, we used multi-channel 500MHz radar in a multi-offset configuration to survey more than 800 km from Raven towards summit. Preliminary radar-derived snow density estimates agree with density estimates from a firn core measurement ( 50 kg/m3), despite the lateral heterogeneity of the firn across the length of the antenna array (12 m).

The influence of atmospheric grid resolution in a climate model-forced ice sheet simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lofverstrom, Marcus; Liakka, Johan

2018-04-01

Coupled climate-ice sheet simulations have been growing in popularity in recent years. Experiments of this type are however challenging as ice sheets evolve over multi-millennial timescales, which is beyond the practical integration limit of most Earth system models. A common method to increase model throughput is to trade resolution for computational efficiency (compromise accuracy for speed). Here we analyze how the resolution of an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) influences the simulation quality in a stand-alone ice sheet model. Four identical AGCM simulations of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) were run at different horizontal resolutions: T85 (1.4°), T42 (2.8°), T31 (3.8°), and T21 (5.6°). These simulations were subsequently used as forcing of an ice sheet model. While the T85 climate forcing reproduces the LGM ice sheets to a high accuracy, the intermediate resolution cases (T42 and T31) fail to build the Eurasian ice sheet. The T21 case fails in both Eurasia and North America. Sensitivity experiments using different surface mass balance parameterizations improve the simulations of the Eurasian ice sheet in the T42 case, but the compromise is a substantial ice buildup in Siberia. The T31 and T21 cases do not improve in the same way in Eurasia, though the latter simulates the continent-wide Laurentide ice sheet in North America. The difficulty to reproduce the LGM ice sheets in the T21 case is in broad agreement with previous studies using low-resolution atmospheric models, and is caused by a substantial deterioration of the model climate between the T31 and T21 resolutions. It is speculated that this deficiency may demonstrate a fundamental problem with using low-resolution atmospheric models in these types of experiments.

Insolation-driven 100,000-year glacial cycles and hysteresis of ice-sheet volume.

PubMed

Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Saito, Fuyuki; Kawamura, Kenji; Raymo, Maureen E; Okuno, Jun'ichi; Takahashi, Kunio; Blatter, Heinz

2013-08-08

The growth and reduction of Northern Hemisphere ice sheets over the past million years is dominated by an approximately 100,000-year periodicity and a sawtooth pattern (gradual growth and fast termination). Milankovitch theory proposes that summer insolation at high northern latitudes drives the glacial cycles, and statistical tests have demonstrated that the glacial cycles are indeed linked to eccentricity, obliquity and precession cycles. Yet insolation alone cannot explain the strong 100,000-year cycle, suggesting that internal climatic feedbacks may also be at work. Earlier conceptual models, for example, showed that glacial terminations are associated with the build-up of Northern Hemisphere 'excess ice', but the physical mechanisms underpinning the 100,000-year cycle remain unclear. Here we show, using comprehensive climate and ice-sheet models, that insolation and internal feedbacks between the climate, the ice sheets and the lithosphere-asthenosphere system explain the 100,000-year periodicity. The responses of equilibrium states of ice sheets to summer insolation show hysteresis, with the shape and position of the hysteresis loop playing a key part in determining the periodicities of glacial cycles. The hysteresis loop of the North American ice sheet is such that after inception of the ice sheet, its mass balance remains mostly positive through several precession cycles, whose amplitudes decrease towards an eccentricity minimum. The larger the ice sheet grows and extends towards lower latitudes, the smaller is the insolation required to make the mass balance negative. Therefore, once a large ice sheet is established, a moderate increase in insolation is sufficient to trigger a negative mass balance, leading to an almost complete retreat of the ice sheet within several thousand years. This fast retreat is governed mainly by rapid ablation due to the lowered surface elevation resulting from delayed isostatic rebound, which is the lithosphere-asthenosphere response. Carbon dioxide is involved, but is not determinative, in the evolution of the 100,000-year glacial cycles.

Sensitivity of an Antarctic Ice Sheet Model to Sub-Ice-Shelf Melting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lipscomb, W. H.; Leguy, G.; Urban, N. M.; Berdahl, M.

2017-12-01

Theory and observations suggest that marine-based sectors of the Antarctic ice sheet could retreat rapidly under ocean warming and increased melting beneath ice shelves. Numerical models of marine ice sheets vary widely in sensitivity, depending on grid resolution and the parameterization of key processes (e.g., calving and hydrofracture). Here we study the sensitivity of the Antarctic ice sheet to ocean warming and sub-shelf melting in standalone simulations of the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM). Melt rates either are prescribed based on observations and high-resolution ocean model output, or are derived from a plume model forced by idealized ocean temperature profiles. In CISM, we vary the model resolution (between 1 and 8 km), Stokes approximation (shallow-shelf, depth-integrated higher-order, or 3D higher-order) and calving scheme to create an ensemble of plausible responses to sub-shelf melting. This work supports a broader goal of building statistical and reduced models that can translate large-scale Earth-system model projections to changes in Antarctic ocean temperatures and ice sheet discharge, thus better quantifying uncertainty in Antarctic-sourced sea-level rise.

The role of ice shelves in the Holocene evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bernales, Jorge; Rogozhina, Irina; Thomas, Maik

2014-05-01

Using the continental-scale ice sheet-shelf model SICOPOLIS (Greve, 1997 [1]; Sato and Greve, 2012 [2]), we assess the influence of ice shelves on the Holocene evolution and present-day geometry of the Antarctic ice sheet. We have designed a series of paleoclimate simulations driven by a time-evolved climate forcing that couples the surface temperature record from the Vostok ice core with precipitation pattern using an empirical relation of Dahl-Jensen et al., (1998) [3]. Our numerical experiments show that the geometry of ice shelves is determined by the evolution of climate and ocean conditions over time scales of 15 to 25 kyr. This implies that the initial configuration of ice shelves at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, about 21 kyr before present) has a significant effect on the modelled Early Holocene volume of ice shelves (up to 20%) that gradually diminishes to a negligible level for the present-day ice shelf configuration. Thus, the present-day geometry of the Antarctic ice shelves can be attained even if an ice-shelf-free initial condition is chosen at the LGM. However, the grounded ice volume, thickness and dynamic states are found to be sensitive to the ice shelf dynamics over a longer history spanning several tens of thousands of years. A presence of extensive marine ice at the LGM, supported by sediment core reconstructions (e.g. Naish et al., 2009 [4]), has a clear buttressing effect on the grounded ice that remains significant over a period of 30 to 50 kyr. If ice-shelf-free conditions are prescribed at the LGM, the modelled Early Holocene and present-day grounded ice volumes are underestimated by up to 10%, as opposed to simulations incorporating ice shelf dynamics over longer periods. The use of ice-shelf-free LGM conditions thus results in 50 to over 200 meters thinner ice sheet across much of East Antarctica. References [1] Greve, R. (1997). Application of a polythermal three-dimensional ice sheet model to the Greenland ice sheet: response to steady-state and transient climate scenarios. Journal of Climate, 10(5), 901-918. [2] Sato, T., and Greve, R. (2012). Sensitivity experiments for the Antarctic ice sheet with varied sub-ice-shelf melting rates. Annals of Glaciology, 53(60), 221-228. [3] Dahl-Jensen, D., Mosegaard, K., Gundestrup, N., Clow, G. D., Johnsen, S. J., Hansen, A. W., and Balling, N. (1998). Past temperatures directly from the Greenland ice sheet. Science, 282(5387), 268-271. [4] Naish, T., Powell, R., Levy, R., Wilson, G., Scherer, R., Talarico, F., ... and Schmitt, D. (2009). Obliquity-paced Pliocene West Antarctic ice sheet oscillations. Nature, 458(7236), 322-328.

Deformation, warming and softening of Greenland’s ice by refreezing meltwater

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bell, Robin E.; Tinto, Kirsteen; Das, Indrani; Wolovick, Michael; Chu, Winnie; Creyts, Timothy T.; Frearson, Nicholas; Abdi, Abdulhakim; Paden, John D.

2014-07-01

Meltwater beneath the large ice sheets can influence ice flow by lubrication at the base or by softening when meltwater refreezes to form relatively warm ice. Refreezing has produced large basal ice units in East Antarctica. Bubble-free basal ice units also outcrop at the edge of the Greenland ice sheet, but the extent of refreezing and its influence on Greenland’s ice flow dynamics are unknown. Here we demonstrate that refreezing of meltwater produces distinct basal ice units throughout northern Greenland with thicknesses of up to 1,100 m. We compare airborne gravity data with modelled gravity anomalies to show that these basal units are ice. Using radar data we determine the extent of the units, which significantly disrupt the overlying ice sheet stratigraphy. The units consist of refrozen basal water commonly surrounded by heavily deformed meteoric ice derived from snowfall. We map these units along the ice sheet margins where surface melt is the largest source of water, as well as in the interior where basal melting is the only source of water. Beneath Petermann Glacier, basal units coincide with the onset of fast flow and channels in the floating ice tongue. We suggest that refreezing of meltwater and the resulting deformation of the surrounding basal ice warms the Greenland ice sheet, modifying the temperature structure of the ice column and influencing ice flow and grounding line melting.

Atmospherically-driven collapse of a marine-based ice stream

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Greenwood, S. L.; Clason, C. C.

2016-12-01

Marine-terminating glaciers and the sectors of ice sheets that are grounded below sea level are widely considered to be vulnerable to unstable retreat. The southern sector of the retreating Fennoscandian Ice Sheet comprised a large, aqueous-terminating ice sheet catchment grounded well below sea level throughout its deglaciation. However, the behaviour, timing of and controls upon ice sheet retreat through the Baltic and Bothnian basins have thus far been inferred only indirectly from peripheral, terrestrial-based geological archives. Recent acquisition of high-resolution multibeam bathymetry opens these basins up, for the first time, to direct investigation of their glacial footprint and palaeo-ice sheet behaviour. Multibeam data reveal a rich glacial landform legacy of the Bothnian Sea deglaciation. A late-stage palaeo-ice stream formed a narrow corridor of fast flow. Its pathway is overprinted by a vast field of basal crevasse squeeze ridges, while abundant traces of high subglacial meltwater volumes call for considerable input of surface meltwater to the subglacial system. We interpret a short-lived ice stream event under high extension, precipitating large-scale hydrofracture-driven collapse of the ice sheet sector under conditions of high surface melting. Experiments with a physically-based numerical flowline model indicate that the rate and pattern of Bothnian Sea ice stream retreat are most sensitive to surface mass balance change and crevasse propagation, while remarkably insensitive to submarine melting and sea level change. We interpret strongly atmospherically-driven retreat of this marine-based ice sheet sector.

From cyclic ice streaming to Heinrich-like events: the grow-and-surge instability in the Parallel Ice Sheet Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feldmann, Johannes; Levermann, Anders

2017-08-01

Here we report on a cyclic, physical ice-discharge instability in the Parallel Ice Sheet Model, simulating the flow of a three-dimensional, inherently buttressed ice-sheet-shelf system which periodically surges on a millennial timescale. The thermomechanically coupled model on 1 km horizontal resolution includes an enthalpy-based formulation of the thermodynamics, a nonlinear stress-balance-based sliding law and a very simple subglacial hydrology. The simulated unforced surging is characterized by rapid ice streaming through a bed trough, resulting in abrupt discharge of ice across the grounding line which is eventually calved into the ocean. We visualize the central feedbacks that dominate the subsequent phases of ice buildup, surge and stabilization which emerge from the interaction between ice dynamics, thermodynamics and the subglacial till layer. Results from the variation of surface mass balance and basal roughness suggest that ice sheets of medium thickness may be more susceptible to surging than relatively thin or thick ones for which the surge feedback loop is damped. We also investigate the influence of different basal sliding laws (ranging from purely plastic to nonlinear to linear) on possible surging. The presented mechanisms underlying our simulations of self-maintained, periodic ice growth and destabilization may play a role in large-scale ice-sheet surging, such as the surging of the Laurentide Ice Sheet, which is associated with Heinrich events, and ice-stream shutdown and reactivation, such as observed in the Siple Coast region of West Antarctica.

Reconstructions of the Weichselian ice sheet, a comparative study of a thermo-mechanical approach to GIA driven models.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmidt, Peter; Lund, Björn; Näslund, Jens-Ove; Fastook, James

2014-05-01

Observations of glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) have been used both to study the mechanical properties of the Earth and to invert for Northern Hemisphere palaeo-ice-sheets. This is typically done by solving the sea-level equation using simplified scaling laws to control ice-sheet thickness. However, past ice-sheets can also be reconstructed based on thermo-mechanical modelling driven by palaeo-climate data, invoking simple analytical models to account for the Earth's response. Commonly, both approaches use dated geological markers to constrain the ice-sheet margin location. Irrespective of the approach, the resulting ice-sheet reconstruction depends on the earth response, although the interdependence between the ice model and the earth model differs and therefore the two types of reconstructions could provide complementary information on Earth properties. We compare a thermo-mechanical reconstruction of the Weichselian ice-sheet using the UMISM model (Näslund, 2010) to two GIA driven reconstructions, ANU (Lambeck et al., 2010) and ICE-5G (Peltier & Fairbanks, 2006), commonly used in GIA modelling. We evaluate the three reconstructions both in terms of ice-sheet configurations and predicted Fennoscandian surface deformation ICE-5G comprise the largest reconstructed ice-sheet whereas ANU and UMISM are more similar in volume and areal extent. Significant differences still exists between ANU and UMISM, especially during the final deglaciation phase. Prior to the final retreat of the ice-sheet, ICE-5G is displays a massive and more or less constant ice-sheet configuration, while both ANU and UMISM fluctuates with at times almost ice-free conditions, such as during MIS3. This results in ICE-5G being close to isostatic equilibrium at LGM, whereas ANU and UMISM are not. Hence, the pre-LGM evolution of the Weichselian ice-sheet needs to be considered in GIA studies. For example, perturbing the ANU or UMISM reconstructions we find that changes more recent than 36 kyr BP may change the predicted uplift velocities by more than 0.1 mm/yr, while changes more recent than 55 kyr BP may change the predicted uplift 10 kyr ago by more than 5 m. Despite their differences we find that all three reconstructions can equally well fit observations of the present day uplift in Fennoscandia, as well as the observed sea-level curve along the Ångerman river, Sweden, albeit with different optimal earth models. However, only for ANU can a single optimal earth model be determined as a bifurcation in the optimal viscosity arises from the generally faster present day rebound rates in ICE-5G and UMISM, resulting in a range of well-fitting earth models for the latter reconstructions. Studying models with a reasonable fit to observed present day uplift velocities we find general trends of over- and under-prediction, indicating that all three ice-sheet reconstructions need improvement. In general, all three reconstructions tend to over-predict the uplift rates in southwestern Fennoscandia, whereas over Finland ICE-5G generally over-predicts and ANU generally under-predicts the uplift rates. UMISM tend to under-predict the velocities over central to northern Sweden and similar trends can also be seen in ANU and ICE-5G.

Response of faults to climate-driven changes in ice and water volumes on Earth's surface.

PubMed

Hampel, Andrea; Hetzel, Ralf; Maniatis, Georgios

2010-05-28

Numerical models including one or more faults in a rheologically stratified lithosphere show that climate-induced variations in ice and water volumes on Earth's surface considerably affect the slip evolution of both thrust and normal faults. In general, the slip rate and hence the seismicity of a fault decreases during loading and increases during unloading. Here, we present several case studies to show that a postglacial slip rate increase occurred on faults worldwide in regions where ice caps and lakes decayed at the end of the last glaciation. Of note is that the postglacial amplification of seismicity was not restricted to the areas beneath the large Laurentide and Fennoscandian ice sheets but also occurred in regions affected by smaller ice caps or lakes, e.g. the Basin-and-Range Province. Our results do not only have important consequences for the interpretation of palaeoseismological records from faults in these regions but also for the evaluation of the future seismicity in regions currently affected by deglaciation like Greenland and Antarctica: shrinkage of the modern ice sheets owing to global warming may ultimately lead to an increase in earthquake frequency in these regions.

The Potsdam Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM-PIK) - Part 2: Dynamic equilibrium simulation of the Antarctic ice sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martin, M. A.; Winkelmann, R.; Haseloff, M.; Albrecht, T.; Bueler, E.; Khroulev, C.; Levermann, A.

2011-09-01

We present a dynamic equilibrium simulation of the ice sheet-shelf system on Antarctica with the Potsdam Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM-PIK). The simulation is initialized with present-day conditions for bed topography and ice thickness and then run to steady state with constant present-day surface mass balance. Surface temperature and sub-shelf basal melt distribution are parameterized. Grounding lines and calving fronts are free to evolve, and their modeled equilibrium state is compared to observational data. A physically-motivated calving law based on horizontal spreading rates allows for realistic calving fronts for various types of shelves. Steady-state dynamics including surface velocity and ice flux are analyzed for whole Antarctica and the Ronne-Filchner and Ross ice shelf areas in particular. The results show that the different flow regimes in sheet and shelves, and the transition zone between them, are captured reasonably well, supporting the approach of superposition of SIA and SSA for the representation of fast motion of grounded ice. This approach also leads to a natural emergence of sliding-dominated flow in stream-like features in this new 3-D marine ice sheet model.

Capturing total chronological and spatial uncertainties in palaeo-ice sheet reconstructions: the DATED example

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hughes, Anna; Gyllencreutz, Richard; Mangerud, Jan; Svendsen, John Inge

2017-04-01

Glacial geologists generate empirical reconstructions of former ice-sheet dynamics by combining evidence from the preserved record of glacial landforms (e.g. end moraines, lineations) and sediments with chronological evidence (mainly numerical dates derived predominantly from radiocarbon, exposure and luminescence techniques). However the geomorphological and sedimentological footprints and chronological data are both incomplete records in both space and time, and all have multiple types of uncertainty associated with them. To understand ice sheets' response to climate we need numerical models of ice-sheet dynamics based on physical principles. To test and/or constrain such models, empirical reconstructions of past ice sheets that capture and acknowledge all uncertainties are required. In 2005 we started a project (Database of the Eurasian Deglaciation, DATED) to produce an empirical reconstruction of the evolution of the last Eurasian ice sheets, (including the British-Irish, Scandinavian and Svalbard-Barents-Kara Seas ice sheets) that is fully documented, specified in time, and includes uncertainty estimates. Over 5000 dates relevant to constraining ice build-up and retreat were assessed for reliability and used together with published ice-sheet margin positions based on glacial geomorphology to reconstruct time-slice maps of the ice sheets' extent. The DATED maps show synchronous ice margins with maximum-minimum uncertainty bounds for every 1000 years between 25-10 kyr ago. In the first version of results (DATED-1; Hughes et al. 2016) all uncertainties (both quantitative and qualitative, e.g. precision and accuracy of numerical dates, correlation of moraines, stratigraphic interpretations) were combined based on our best glaciological-geological assessment and expressed in terms of distance as a 'fuzzy' margin. Large uncertainties (>100 km) exist; predominantly across marine sectors and other locations where there are spatial gaps in the dating record (e.g. the timing of coalescence and separation of the Scandinavian and Svalbard-Barents-Kara ice sheets) but also in well-studied areas due to conflicting yet apparently equally robust data. In the four years since the DATED-1 census (1 January 2013), the volume of new information (from both dates and mapped glacial geomorphology) has grown significantly ( 1000 new dates). Here, we present work towards the updated version of results, DATED-2, that attempts to further reduce and explicitly report all uncertainties inherent in ice sheet reconstructions. Hughes, A. L. C., Gyllencreutz, R., Lohne, Ø. S., Mangerud, J., Svendsen, J. I. 2016: The last Eurasian ice sheets - a chronological database and time-slice reconstruction, DATED-1. Boreas, 45, 1-45. 10.1111/bor.12142

36Cl, 10Be and 26Al analyses from the GISP2 bedrock core and the stability of the Greenland Ice Sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schaefer, J. M.; Finkel, R. C.; Fifield, L. K.; Balco, G.; Caffee, M.; Alley, R. B.; Briner, J. P.; Young, N. E.; Gow, A. J.; Schwartz, R.

2017-12-01

The Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) contains the equivalent of 7.4 meters (24 feet) of global sea-level rise. Its stability in our warming climate is therefore a pressing concern. However, the scarcity of proxy evidence of the palaeo-stability of the GIS means that its history remains controversial (for example 1 vs. 2). Current model simulations of the past GIS configuration during warm periods remain ambiguous but do show that both the magnitude and the duration of warmth are critical to ice-sheet stability. Much of this uncertainty reflects the fact that the direct evidence, if it exists, is buried beneath the present ice sheet. Here we attempt to overcome this obstacle via cosmogenic nuclide analysis of sub-GIS bedrock. Cosmogenic nuclides directly monitor periods of surface exposure to cosmic ray bombardment and thus ice-free conditions, and the ratios between cosmogenic nuclides of differing half-lives are diagnostic for periods the GIS shielded the bedrock. We focus on the bedrock underneath the 3042 m long GISP2 ice core, retrieved in 1993, and recently published the 10Be (half-life 1.4 Myr) and 26Al (half-life 0.7 Myr) analyses from quartz of this bedrock core 3. The published results show that Greenland was nearly ice-free for extended periods during the Pleistocene (2.6 Myr -11.7 kyr ago) and narrow the spectrum of possible GIS histories: the longest period of stability of the present ice sheet that is consistent with the 10Be and 26Al measurements is 1.1 Myr, assuming that this was preceded by more than 280 kyr of ice-free conditions. More dynamic scenarios, in which Greenland was ice-free during any or all Pleistocene interglacials, would be also consistent with the 10Be and 26Al data. We now present 36Cl (half-life 0.3 Myr) data from feldspars separated from this bedrock core. The measured 36Cl depth profile is consistent with the 10Be and 26Al data, indicating that most of the analyzed 36Cl was produced by neutron spallation during periods of nearly ice-free Greenland. We discuss the implications of these new, direct evidence from the GISP2 bedrock core for the past, present and future GIS stability. References 1 de Vernal, A. & Hillaire-Marcel, C. Science 320, 1622-1625 (2008). 2 Bierman, P. R., et al. Nature 540, 256-258 (2016). 3 Schaefer, J. M. et al. Nature 540, 252-255 (2016).

Sea-level response to abrupt ocean warming of Antarctic ice shelves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pattyn, Frank

2016-04-01

Antarctica's contribution to global sea-level rise increases steadily. A fundamental question remains whether the ice discharge will lead to marine ice sheet instability (MISI) and collapse of certain sectors of the ice sheet or whether ice loss will increase linearly with the warming trends. Therefore, we employ a newly developed ice sheet model of the Antarctic ice sheet, called f.ETISh (fast Elementary Thermomechanical Ice Sheet model) to simulate ice sheet response to abrupt perturbations in ocean and atmospheric temperature. The f.ETISh model is a vertically integrated hybrid (SSA/SIA) ice sheet model including ice shelves. Although vertically integrated, thermomechanical coupling is ensured through a simplified representation of ice sheet thermodynamics based on an analytical solution of the vertical temperature profile, including strain heating and horizontal advection. The marine boundary is represented by a flux condition either coherent with power-law basal sliding (Pollard & Deconto (2012) based on Schoof (2007)) or according to Coulomb basal friction (Tsai et al., 2015), both taking into account ice-shelf buttressing. Model initialization is based on optimization of the basal friction field. Besides the traditional MISMIP tests, new tests with respect to MISI in plan-view models have been devised. The model is forced with stepwise ocean and atmosphere temperature perturbations. The former is based on a parametrised sub-shelf melt (limited to ice shelves), while the latter is based on present-day mass balance/surface temperature and corrected for elevation changes. Surface melting is introduced using a PDD model. Results show a general linear response in mass loss to ocean warming. Nonlinear response due to MISI occurs under specific conditions and is highly sensitive to the basal conditions near the grounding line, governed by both the initial conditions and the basal sliding/deformation model. The Coulomb friction model leads to significantly higher sensitivity compared to power-law sliding. On longer time scales, West-antarctic inter-basin connections favor nonlinear response.

Possible contribution of ice-sheet/lithosphere interactions to past glaciological changes in Greenland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alley, R. B.; Parizek, B. R.; Anandakrishnan, S.; Pollard, D.; Stevens, N. T.; Pourpoint, M.

2017-12-01

Ice-lithosphere interactions may have influenced the history of ice-sheet sensitivity to climate change. The Greenland ice sheet (GIS) is sensitive to warming, and is likely to be largely removed if subjected to relatively small additional temperature increases. The recent report (Schaefer et al., 2016, Nature) of near-complete GIS removal under modest Pleistocene forcing suggests that GIS sensitivity may be even greater than generally modeled, but lack of major Holocene retreat is more consistent with existing models. As shown by Stevens et al. (2016, JGR), peak lithospheric flexural stresses associated with ice-age GIS cycling are of the same order as dike-driving stresses in plutonic systems, and migrate over ice-age cycles. The full analysis by Stevens et al. suggests the possibility that the onset of cyclic ice-sheet loading allowed deep melt associated with the passage of the Icelandic hot spot beneath Greenland to work up though the crust to or near the base of the ice sheet, helping explain the anomalous geothermal heat fluxes observed at the head of the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream and elsewhere in the northern part of GIS. If ice-age cycling aided extraction of an existing reservoir of melted rock, then geothermal heat flux would have risen with the onset of extraction and migration, but with a subsequent fall associated with reservoir depletion. Simple parameterized flow-model simulations confirm intuition that a higher geothermal flux makes deglaciation easier, with the northern part of the ice sheet especially important. Large uncertainties remain in quantification, but we suggest the hypothesis that, following the onset of ice-age cycling, deglaciation of the GIS first became easier and then more difficult in response to feedbacks involving the ice sheet and the geological system beneath. In turn, this suggests that evidence of past deglaciation under moderate forcing is consistent with existing ice-sheet models.

The Research on Elevation Change of Antarctic Ice Sheet Based on CRYOSAT-2 Alimeter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Q.; Wan, J.; Liu, S.; Li, Y.

2018-04-01

In this paper, the Cryosat-2 altimeter data distributed by the ESA, and these data are processed to extract the information of the elevation change of the Antarctic ice sheet from 2010 to 2017. Firstly, the main pretreatment preprocessing for Cryosat-2 altimetry data is crossover adjustment and elimination of rough difference. Then the grid DEM of the Antarctic ice sheet was constructed by using the kriging interpolation method,and analyzed the spatial characteristic time characteristics of the Antarctic ice sheet. The latitude-weighted elevation can be obtained by using the elevation data of each cycle, and then the general trend of the Antarctic ice sheet elevation variation can be seen roughly.

ISSM: Ice Sheet System Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Larour, Eric; Schiermeier, John E.; Seroussi, Helene; Morlinghem, Mathieu

2013-01-01

In order to have the capability to use satellite data from its own missions to inform future sea-level rise projections, JPL needed a full-fledged ice-sheet/iceshelf flow model, capable of modeling the mass balance of Antarctica and Greenland into the near future. ISSM was developed with such a goal in mind, as a massively parallelized, multi-purpose finite-element framework dedicated to ice-sheet modeling. ISSM features unstructured meshes (Tria in 2D, and Penta in 3D) along with corresponding finite elements for both types of meshes. Each finite element can carry out diagnostic, prognostic, transient, thermal 3D, surface, and bed slope simulations. Anisotropic meshing enables adaptation of meshes to a certain metric, and the 2D Shelfy-Stream, 3D Blatter/Pattyn, and 3D Full-Stokes formulations capture the bulk of the ice-flow physics. These elements can be coupled together, based on the Arlequin method, so that on a large scale model such as Antarctica, each type of finite element is used in the most efficient manner. For each finite element referenced above, ISSM implements an adjoint. This adjoint can be used to carry out model inversions of unknown model parameters, typically ice rheology and basal drag at the ice/bedrock interface, using a metric such as the observed InSAR surface velocity. This data assimilation capability is crucial to allow spinning up of ice flow models using available satellite data. ISSM relies on the PETSc library for its vectors, matrices, and solvers. This allows ISSM to run efficiently on any parallel platform, whether shared or distrib- ISSM: Ice Sheet System Model NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, California uted. It can run on the largest clusters, and is fully scalable. This allows ISSM to tackle models the size of continents. ISSM is embedded into MATLAB and Python, both open scientific platforms. This improves its outreach within the science community. It is entirely written in C/C++, which gives it flexibility in its design, and the power/speed that C/C++ allows. ISSM is svn (subversion) hosted, on a JPL repository, to facilitate its development and maintenance. ISSM can also model propagation of rifts using contact mechanics and mesh splitting, and can interface to the Dakota software. To carry out sensitivity analysis, mesh partitioning algorithms are available, based on the Scotch, Chaco, and Metis partitioners that ensure equal area mesh partitions can be done, which are then usable for sampling and local reliability methods.

Evolution of a Greenland Ice sheet Including Shelves and Regional Sea Level Variations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bradley, Sarah; Reerink, Thomas; van de Wal, Roderik S. W.; Helsen, Michiel; Goelzer, Heiko

2016-04-01

Observational evidence, including offshore moraines and marine sediment cores infer that at the Last Glacial maximum (LGM) the Greenland ice sheet (GIS) grounded out across the Davis Strait into Baffin Bay, with fast flowing ice streams extending out to the continental shelf break along the NW margin. These observations lead to a number of questions as to weather the GIS and Laurentide ice sheet (LIS) coalesced during glacial maximums, and if so, did a significant ice shelf develop across Baffin Bay and how would such a configuration impact on the relative contribution of these ice sheets to eustatic sea level (ESL). Most previous paleo ice sheet modelling simulations of the GIS recreated an ice sheet that either did not extend out onto the continental shelf or utilised a simplified marine ice parameterisation to recreate an extended GIS, and therefore did not fully include ice shelf dynamics. In this study we simulate the evolution of the GIS from 220 kyr BP to present day using IMAU-ice; a 3D thermodynamical ice sheet model which fully accounts for grounded and floating ice, calculates grounding line migration and ice shelf dynamics. As there are few observational estimates of the long-term (yrs) sub marine basal melting rates (mbm) for the GIS, we developed a mbm parameterization within IMAU-ice controlled primarily by changes in paleo water depth. We also investigate the influence of the LIS on the GIS evolution by including relative sea level forcing's derived from a Glacial Isostatic Adjustment model. We will present results of how changes in the mbm directly impacts on the ice sheet dynamics, timing and spatial extent of the GIS at the glacial maximums, but also on the rate of retreat and spatial extent at the Last interglacial (LIG) minimum. Results indicate that with the inclusion of ice shelf dynamics, a larger GIS is generated which is grounded out into Davis strait, up to a water depth of -750 m, but significantly reduces the GIS contribution to Last interglacial ESL.

Evolution of a Greenland Ice sheet Including Shelves and Regional Sea Level Variations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bradley, S.; Reerink, T.; Vandewal, R.; Helsen, M.

2015-12-01

Observational evidence, including offshore moraines and marine sediment cores infer that at the Last Glacial maximum (LGM) the Greenland ice sheet (GIS) grounded out across the Davis Strait into Baffin Bay, with fast flowing ice streams extending out to the continental shelf break along the NW margin. These observations lead to a number of questions as to weather the GIS and Laurentide ice sheet (LIS) coalesced during glacial maximums, and if so, did a significant ice shelf develop across Baffin Bay and how would such a configuration impact on the relative contribution of these ice sheets to eustatic sea level (ESL). Most previous paleo ice sheet modelling simulations of the GIS recreated an ice sheet that either did not extend out onto the continental shelf or utilised a simplified marine ice parameterisation to recreate an extended GIS, and therefore did not fully include ice shelf dynamics. In this study we simulate the evolution of the GIS from 220 kyr BP to present day using IMAU-ice; a 3D thermodynamical ice sheet model which fully accounts for grounded and floating ice, calculates grounding line migration and ice shelf dynamics. There is few observational estimates of long-term (yrs) sub marine basal melting rates (mbm) for the GIS. Therefore we investigate a range of relationships to constrain the spatial and temporal parameterisation of mbm within IMAU-ice related to changes in paleo water depth, driven by changes in relative sea level and ocean temperature. We will present results of how changes in the mbm directly impacts on the ice sheet dynamics, timing and spatial extent of the GIS at the glacial maximums, but also on the rate of retreat and spatial extent at the Last interglacial (LIG) minimum. Initial results indicate that with the inclusion of ice shelf dynamics, a larger GIS is generated which is grounded out into Davis strait, up to a water depth of -750 m, but the total contribution to LIG ESL is reduced by up to 0.6 m.

First Younger Dryas moraines in Greenland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Funder, Svend; Larsen, Nicolaj K.; Linge, Henriette; Möller, Per; Schomacker, Anders; Fabel, Derek; Kjær, Kurt H.; Xu, Sheng

2016-04-01

Over the Greenland ice sheet the Younger Dryas (YD) cold climate oscillation (12.9-11.7 kaBP) began with up to 10°C drop in temperatures and ended with up to 12°C abrupt warming. In the light of the present warming and melting of the ice sheet, and its importance for future climate change, the ice sheet's response to these dramatic changes in the past is of great interest. However, even though much effort has gone into charting YD ice margin behaviour around Greenland in recent years, no clear-cut signal of response to the oscillation has been uncovered. Here we show evidence to suggest that three major outlets from a local ice cap at Greenland's north coast advanced and retreated synchronously during YD. The evidence comprises OSL (optically stimulated luminescence) dates from a marine transgression of the coastal valleys that preceded the advance, and exposure ages from boulders on the moraines, formed by glaciers that overrode the marine sediment. The OSL ages suggest a maximum age of 12.4 ±0.6 kaBP for the marine incursion, and 10 exposure ages on boulders from the three moraines provide an average minimum age of 12.5 ±0.7 kaBP for the moraines, implying that the moraines were formed within the interval 11.8-13.0 kaBP. Elsewhere in Greenland evidence for readvance has been recorded in two areas. Most notably, in the East Greenland fjord zone outlet glaciers over a stretch of 800 km coast advanced through the fjords. In Scoresby Sund, where the moraines form a wide belt, an extensive 14C and exposure dating programme has shown that the readvance here probably culminated before YD, while cessation of moraine formation and rapid retreat from the moraine belt did not commence until c. 11.5 kaBP, but no moraines have so far been dated to YD. Readvance is also seen in Disko Bugt, the largest ice sheet outlet in West Greenland. However, here the advance and retreat of the ice stream took place in mid YD times, and lasted only a few hundred years, while YD in general was characterised by large scale, more than 200 km, retreat on the shelf. Therefore, although readvance and retreat occurred in both areas, the readvance was apparently not triggered by the initial YD cooling nor was the retreat caused by the abrupt warming at the end. At all other sites with a record that run through or into YD - Southeast Greenland, South Greenland, northern West Greenland - the ice margins were apparently retreating through YD, leaving the north coast as the only area with evidence for a climatically conditioned YD readvance/retreat. The apparent mismatch between ice core temperatures and ice margin behaviour is generally seen as a function of reduced AMOC (Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation), inducing both higher seasonality with very cold winters and warm summers, and also occurrence of warm subsurface water to melt the ice sheet margin along some coasts. Therefore the ice margin response to the cold oscillation was to some extent determined by the nearness to the North Atlantic - with North Greenland being the farthest away. Although this may explain why glaciers advanced in North Greenland, while they melted in more southerly parts, it still leaves the question with a bearing on the future: why don't we see any ice margin response neither to the initial YD cooling, nor to the abrupt warming at the end?

State of balance of the cryosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Van Der Veen, C. J.

1991-01-01

Available observations and mass balance estimates of the cryosphere are summarized. Problems discussed include mountain glaciers, the Greenland ice sheet, the Antarctic ice sheet, conventional glacier measurement techniques, and satellite applications in glacier mass balance studies. It is concluded that the interior part of the Greenland ice sheet is thickening or in near equilibrium. Estimates of the mass balance of the Antarctic ice sheet suggest that it is positive, although the error limits allow for a slightly negative balance.

Why Europa's icy shell may convect, but ice sheets do not: a glaciological perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bassis, J. N.

2016-12-01

Jupiter's moon Europa is covered in an icy shell that lies over a liquid ocean. Geological evidence and numerical models suggest that Europa's icy shell convects, providing the possibility that Europa may experience a form of plate tectonics and could even harbor life in its subsurface ocean. The hypothesis that Europa convects is supported by both models and geological evidence. Surprisingly, when we apply similar calculations and (assumptions) used by planetary scientists to infer convection in icy moons like Europa we find that these models also predict that vigorous convection should also occur in portions of our own terrestrial ice sheets and ice shelves where we have firm evidence to the contrary. We can explain the lack of convection within our own ice sheets by recognizing that instead of the diffusion creep limited rheology frequently invoked by planetary scientists, terrestrial ice undergoes power-law creep down to very low strain rates. Glaciological studies find that power-law creep is required to explain the structure of vertical strain rate near ice sheet divides and shape of the ice sheets near an ice divide. However, when we now apply a rheology that is consistent with terrestrial ice sheet dynamics to icy moon conditions, we find conditions are far less favorable for convection in icy moons, with only a very limited parameter regime where convection can occur. Given the many unknowns (grain size, impurities etc.) it is challenging to draw strong conclusions about the behavior of icy moons . Nonetheless, the lack of convection in terrestrial ice sheets provides an important constraint on the dynamics of icy moons and models that explain convection of icy moons should also explain the lack of convection on terrestrial ice sheets.

Towards Greenland Glaciation: cumulative or abrupt transition?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramstein, Gilles; Tan, Ning; Ladant, Jean-baptiste; Dumas, Christophe; Contoux, Camille

2017-04-01

During the mid-Pliocene warming period (3-3.3 Ma BP), the global annual mean temperatures inferred by data and model studies were 2-3° warmer than pre-industrial values. Accordingly, Greenland ice sheet volume is supposed to reach at the most, only half of that of present-day [Haywood et al. 2010]. Around 2.7-2.6 Ma BP, just ˜ 500 kyr after the warming peak of mid-Pliocene, the Greenland ice sheet has reached its full size [Lunt et al. 2008]. A crucial question concerns the evolution of the Greenland ice sheet from half to full size during the 3 - 2.5 Ma period. Data show a decreasing trend of atmospheric CO2 concentration from 3 Ma to 2.5 Ma [Seki et al.2010; Bartoli et al. 2011; Martinez et al. 2015]. However, a recent study [Contoux et al. 2015] suggests that a lowering of CO2 is not sufficient to initiate a perennial glaciation on Greenland and must be combined with low summer insolation to preserve the ice sheet during insolation maxima. This suggests rather a cumulative process than an abrupt event. In order to diagnose the evolution of the ice sheet build-up, we carry on, for the first time, a transient simulation of climate and ice sheet evolutions from 3 Ma to 2.5 Ma. This strategy enables us to investigate the waxing and waning of the ice sheet during several orbital cycles. We use a tri-dimensional interpolation method designed by Ladant et al. (2014), which allows the evolution of CO2 concentration and of orbital parameters, and the evolution of the Greenland ice sheet size to be taken into account. By interpolating climatic snapshot simulations ran with various possible combinations of CO2, orbits and ice sheet sizes, we can build a continuous climatic forcing that is then used to provide 500 kyrs-long ice sheet simulations. With such a tool, we may offer a physically based answer to different CO2 reconstructions scenarios and analyse which one is the most consistent with Greenland ice sheet buildup.

A Warmer Atmosphere on Mars near the Noachian-Hesperian Boundary: Evidence from Basal Melting of the South Polar Ice Cap (Dorsa Argentea Formation)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fastook, J. L.; Head, J. W.; Marchant, D. R.; Forget, F.; Madeleine, J.-B.

2012-05-01

Eskers in the Dorsa Argentea Formation imply the presence of an ice sheet with a wet bed. With an ice sheet model, we examine a range of geothermal heat fluxes and warmer climates to determine what conditions could produce such an ice sheet.

Implementation of the Jacobian-free Newton-Krylov method for solving the for solving the first-order ice sheet momentum balance

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Salinger, Andy; Evans, Katherine J; Lemieux, Jean-Francois

2011-01-01

We have implemented the Jacobian-free Newton-Krylov (JFNK) method for solving the rst-order ice sheet momentum equation in order to improve the numerical performance of the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM), the land ice component of the Community Earth System Model (CESM). Our JFNK implementation is based on signicant re-use of existing code. For example, our physics-based preconditioner uses the original Picard linear solver in CISM. For several test cases spanning a range of geometries and boundary conditions, our JFNK implementation is 1.84-3.62 times more efficient than the standard Picard solver in CISM. Importantly, this computational gain of JFNK over themore » Picard solver increases when rening the grid. Global convergence of the JFNK solver has been signicantly improved by rescaling the equation for the basal boundary condition and through the use of an inexact Newton method. While a diverse set of test cases show that our JFNK implementation is usually robust, for some problems it may fail to converge with increasing resolution (as does the Picard solver). Globalization through parameter continuation did not remedy this problem and future work to improve robustness will explore a combination of Picard and JFNK and the use of homotopy methods.« less

WATSON: Detecting organic material in subsurface ice using deep-UV fluorescence and Raman spectroscopy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eshelman, E.; Wanger, G.; Manatt, K.; Malaska, M.; Willis, M.; Abbey, W.; Doloboff, I.; Beegle, L. W.; DeFlores, L. P.; Priscu, J. C.; Lane, A. L.; Carrier, B. L.; Mellerowicz, B.; Kim, D.; Paulsen, G.; Zacny, K.; Bhartia, R.

2017-12-01

Future astrobiological missions to Europa and other ocean worlds may benefit from next-generation instrumentation capable of in situ organic and life detection in subsurface ice environments. WATSON (Wireline Analysis Tool for in Situ Observation of Northern ice sheets) is an instrument under development at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory. WATSON contains high-TRL instrumentation developed for SHERLOC, the Mars 2020 deep-UV fluorescence and Raman spectrometer, including a 248.6 nm NeCu hollow cathode laser as an excitation source. In WATSON, these technologies provide spectroscopic capabilities highly sensitive to many organic compounds, including microbes, in an instrument package approximately 1.2 m long with a 101.6 mm diameter, designed to accommodate a 108 mm ice borehole. Interrogation into the ice wall with a laser allows for a non-destructive in situ measurement that preserves the spatial distribution of material within the ice. We report on a successful deployment of WATSON to Kangerlussuaq, Greenland, where the instrument was lowered to a 4.5 m depth in a hand-cored hole on the Kangerlussuaq sector of the Greenland ice sheet. Motorized stages within the instrument were used to raster a laser across cm-scale regions of the interior surface of the borehole, obtaining fluorescence spectral maps with a 200 µm spatial resolution and a spectral range from 265 nm to 440 nm. This region includes the UV emission bands of many aromatic compounds and microbes, and includes the water and ice Raman O-H stretching modes. We additionally report on experiments designed to inform an early-2018 deployment to Kangerlussuaq where WATSON will be incorporated into a Honeybee Robotics planetary deep drill, with a goal of drilling to a depth of 100 m and investigating the distribution of organic material within the ice sheet. These experiments include laboratory calibrations to determine the sensitivity to organic compounds embedded in ice at various depths, as well as analysis of ice cores obtained during the deployment and returned for subsequent study.

Reconstructing paleoceanographic conditions during the Oligocene/Miocene Boundary using walled dinoflagellate cysts and TEX86: IODP Expedition 318, Wilkes Land, Antarctic margin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bijl, Peter; Bruls, Anja; Hartman, Julian D.; Sangiorgi, Francesca; Peterse, Francien

2017-04-01

Wilkes land is potentially a sensitive sector of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS), because Wilkes subglacial basin is largely below sea level. In light of this, understanding changes in ice volume in this sector of Antarctica during past episodes of warmth may help constrain future ice sheet melt in the region. Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Expedition 318 was intended to drill and recover from the Wilkes Land continental Margin to reconstruct the history of the East Antarctic ice sheet (EAIS). The integrated bio-magnetostratigraphic age model for IODP Site U1356 is quite robust for the entire stratigraphic record, but in the Oligocene-Miocene boundary interval, the details of the age model are somewhat elusive. Notably it is uncertain whether sediments dating back to the Mi-1 glaciation event, at the Oligocene-Miocene boundary, are represented in the record. This research presents a revised age model for the interval around the OMT and gives a paleoceanographic interpretation of Site U1356 based on dinocyst ecology and TEX86 biomarker proxy. The finding of the dinocyst species Edwardsiella sexispinosa provides for an additional dinocyst event, and revised the location of the OMT. Core 45R likely represents the base of the Miocene and Core 46R and Core 47R represents the late Oligocene between 23.23 to 25.1 Ma. The dinocyst ecology indicated varying intervals of mostly Protoperidinioid genera to mostly Gonyaulacoid genera, that represent high productivity conditions and oligotrophic conditions respectively. These changing ecological conditions have been related to the a changing upwelling regime along the Wilkes Land margin, which is connected to the polar wind field and positively correlated to the extent of the Antarctic ice sheets. Sea ice conditions are absent along the Wilkes Land margin throughout this part of the record, therefore deep-water formation would also have been reduced. The SST record provided by TEX86 biomarker proxy indicates a decreasing trend towards the Miocene, but does not seem to point consistently to a warmer climate state during the late Oligocene. The dinocyst and TEX86 records seem to infer a smaller than present, dynamic Antarctic ice sheet during the late Oligocene to early Miocene, yet in combination with a quite invariant state of the atmospheric pCO2 record (Zhang et al., 2013). This seems to indicate a more sensitive Antarctic ice sheet possibly related to a threshold size for a stable ice sheet. However the ice volume changes inferred from the global benthic foraminiferal δ18O record could also have been of a smaller extent. Another cause that could potentially add to the changing δ18O record, is a change in deep water source, more specifically an alternating Southern Ocean deep-water formation which is coupled to the alternating Antarctic cryosphere.

Present and Future Surface Mass Budget of Small Arctic Ice Caps in a High Resolution Regional Climate Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mottram, Ruth; Langen, Peter; Koldtoft, Iben; Midefelt, Linnea; Hesselbjerg Christensen, Jens

2016-04-01

Globally, small ice caps and glaciers make a substantial contribution to sea level rise; this is also true in the Arctic. Around Greenland small ice caps are surprisingly important to the total mass balance from the island as their marginal coastal position means they receive a large amount of precipitation and also experience high surface melt rates. Since small ice caps and glaciers have had a disproportionate number of long-term monitoring and observational schemes in the Arctic, likely due to their relative accessibility, they can also be a valuable source of data. However, in climate models the surface mass balance contributions are often not distinguished from the main ice sheet and the presence of high relief topography is difficult to capture in coarse resolution climate models. At the same time, the diminutive size of marginal ice masses in comparison to the ice sheet makes modelling their ice dynamics difficult. Using observational data from the Devon Ice Cap in Arctic Canada and the Renland Ice Cap in Eastern Greenland, we assess the success of a very high resolution (~5km) regional climate model, HIRHAM5 in capturing the surface mass balance (SMB) of these small ice caps. The model is forced with ERA-Interim and we compare observed mean SMB and the interannual variability to assess model performance. The steep gradient in topography around Renland is challenging for climate models and additional statistical corrections are required to fit the calculated surface mass balance to the high relief topography. Results from a modelling experiment at Renland Ice Cap shows that this technique produces a better fit between modelled and observed surface topography. We apply this statistical relationship to modelled SMB on the Devon Ice Cap and use the long time series of observations from this glacier to evaluate the model and the smoothed SMB. Measured SMB values from a number of other small ice caps including Mittivakkat and A.P. Olsen ice cap are also compared with model output. Finally we use climate simulations forced with two different RCP scenarios to examine the likely future evolution of SMB over these small ice masses.

Greenland ice-sheet contribution to sea-level rise buffered by meltwater storage in firn.

PubMed

Harper, J; Humphrey, N; Pfeffer, W T; Brown, J; Fettweis, X

2012-11-08

Surface melt on the Greenland ice sheet has shown increasing trends in areal extent and duration since the beginning of the satellite era. Records for melt were broken in 2005, 2007, 2010 and 2012. Much of the increased surface melt is occurring in the percolation zone, a region of the accumulation area that is perennially covered by snow and firn (partly compacted snow). The fate of melt water in the percolation zone is poorly constrained: some may travel away from its point of origin and eventually influence the ice sheet's flow dynamics and mass balance and the global sea level, whereas some may simply infiltrate into cold snow or firn and refreeze with none of these effects. Here we quantify the existing water storage capacity of the percolation zone of the Greenland ice sheet and show the potential for hundreds of gigatonnes of meltwater storage. We collected in situ observations of firn structure and meltwater retention along a roughly 85-kilometre-long transect of the melting accumulation area. Our data show that repeated infiltration events in which melt water penetrates deeply (more than 10 metres) eventually fill all pore space with water. As future surface melt intensifies under Arctic warming, a fraction of melt water that would otherwise contribute to sea-level rise will fill existing pore space of the percolation zone. We estimate the lower and upper bounds of this storage sink to be 322 ± 44 gigatonnes and  1,289(+388)(-252) gigatonnes, respectively. Furthermore, we find that decades are required to fill this pore space under a range of plausible future climate conditions. Hence, routing of surface melt water into filling the pore space of the firn column will delay expansion of the area contributing to sea-level rise, although once the pore space is filled it cannot quickly be regenerated.

Dating glacimarine sediments from the continental shelf in the Amundsen Sea using a multi-tool box: Implications for West Antarctic ice-sheet extent and retreat during the last glacial cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hillenbrand, C. D.; Smith, J.; Klages, J. P.; Kuhn, G.; Maher, B.; Moreton, S.; Wacker, L.; Frederichs, T.; Wiers, S.; Jernas, P.; Anderson, J. B.; Ehrmann, W. U.; Graham, A. G. C.; Gohl, K.; Larter, R. D.

2016-02-01

Satellite data and in-situ measurements show that today considerable mass loss is occurring from the Amundsen Sea sector of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS). The observational record only spans the past four decades, and until recently the long-term context of the current deglaciation was poorly constrained. This information is, however, crucial for understanding WAIS dynamics, evaluating the role of forcing mechanisms for ice-sheet melting, and testing and calibrating ice-sheet models that attempt to predict future WAIS behavior and its impact on global sea level. Over the past decade several multinational marine expeditions and terrestrial fieldwork campaigns have targeted the Amundsen Sea shelf and its hinterland to reconstruct the WAIS configuration during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and its subsequent deglacial history. The resulting studies succeeded in shedding light on the maximum WAIS extent at the LGM and the style, pattern and speed of its retreat and thinning thereafter. Despite this progress, however, significant uncertainties and discrepancies between marine and terrestrial reconstructions remain, which may arise from difficulties in dating sediment cores from the Antarctic shelf, especially their deglacial sections. Resolving these issues is crucial for understanding the WAIS' contribution to post-LGM sea-level rise, its sensitivity to different forcing mechanisms and its future evolution. Here we present chronological constraints on WAIS advance in the Amundsen Sea and its retreat from 20 ka BP into the Holocene that were obtained by various techniques, such as 14C dating of large ( 10 mg) and small (<<1 mg) sample aliquots of calcareous microfossils, 14C dating of acid-insoluble organic matter combusted at low (300 °C) and high (800 °C) temperatures and dating of sediment cores by using geomagnetic paleointensity. We will compare the different age constraints and discuss their reliability, applicability and implications for WAIS history.

Ice sheet topography by satellite altimetry

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brooks, R.L.; Campbell, W.J.; Ramseier, R.O.; Stanley, H.R.; Zwally, H.J.

1978-01-01

The surface elevation of the southern Greenland ice sheet and surface features of the ice flow are obtained from the radar altimeter on the GEOS 3 satellite. The achieved accuracy in surface elevation is ???2 m. As changes in surface elevation are indicative of changes in ice volume, the mass balance of the present ice sheets could be determined by repetitive mapping of the surface elevation and the surface could be monitored to detect surging or significant changes in ice flow. ?? 1978 Nature Publishing Group.

West Antarctic Ice Sheet retreat driven by Holocene warm water incursions

PubMed Central

Hillenbrand, Claus-Dieter; Smith, James A.; Hodell, David A.; Greaves, Mervyn; Poole, Christopher R.; Kender, Sev; Williams, Mark; Andersen, Thorbjørn Joest; Jernas, Patrycja E.; Klages, Johann P.; Roberts, Stephen J.; Gohl, Karsten; Larter, Robert D.; Kuhn, Gerhard

2017-01-01

Glaciological and oceanographic observations coupled with numerical models show that warm Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) upwelling onto the West Antarctic continental shelf causes melting of the undersides of floating ice shelves. Because these ice shelves buttress glaciers feeding into them, their ocean-induced thinning is driving Antarctic ice-sheet loss today. Here we present the first multi-proxy data based reconstruction of variability in CDW inflow to the Amundsen Sea sector, the most vulnerable part of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, during the last 11,000 years. The chemical composition of foraminifer shells and benthic foraminifer assemblages in marine sediments indicate that enhanced CDW upwelling, controlled by the latitudinal position of the Southern Hemisphere westerly winds, forced deglaciation of this sector both until 7,500 years ago, when an ice-shelf collapse may have caused rapid ice-sheet thinning further upstream, and since the 1940s. These results increase confidence in the predictive capability of current ice-sheet models. PMID:28682333

West Antarctic Ice Sheet retreat driven by Holocene warm water incursions.

PubMed

Hillenbrand, Claus-Dieter; Smith, James A; Hodell, David A; Greaves, Mervyn; Poole, Christopher R; Kender, Sev; Williams, Mark; Andersen, Thorbjørn Joest; Jernas, Patrycja E; Elderfield, Henry; Klages, Johann P; Roberts, Stephen J; Gohl, Karsten; Larter, Robert D; Kuhn, Gerhard

2017-07-05

Glaciological and oceanographic observations coupled with numerical models show that warm Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) incursions onto the West Antarctic continental shelf cause melting of the undersides of floating ice shelves. Because these ice shelves buttress glaciers feeding into them, their ocean-induced thinning is driving Antarctic ice-sheet retreat today. Here we present a multi-proxy data based reconstruction of variability in CDW inflow to the Amundsen Sea sector, the most vulnerable part of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, during the Holocene epoch (from 11.7 thousand years ago to the present). The chemical compositions of foraminifer shells and benthic foraminifer assemblages in marine sediments indicate that enhanced CDW upwelling, controlled by the latitudinal position of the Southern Hemisphere westerly winds, forced deglaciation of this sector from at least 10,400 years ago until 7,500 years ago-when an ice-shelf collapse may have caused rapid ice-sheet thinning further upstream-and since the 1940s. These results increase confidence in the predictive capability of current ice-sheet models.

Radiocarbon chronology of the last deglaciation in the Baffin Bay reveals asynchronous melting of Arctic and Laurentide ice sheets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jackson, Rebecca; Kucera, Michal; Vogt, Christoph; Wacker, Lukas

2016-04-01

The transition from the last ice age into the Holocene interglacial was characterised by rapid retreat of North American ice sheets, discharging large quantities of meltwater into the Labrador Sea. Whereas the meltwater chronology of the Laurentide Ice Sheet is well documented, the deglacial history of the American Arctic ice sheets (Inuit Ice sheet and northern Greenland Ice Sheet) draining into the Labrador Sea via the Baffin Bay is less well constrained. Here we present the first high-resolution radiocarbon-dated deglacial records from the Canadian and Greenland margins of the central Baffin Bay. Sedimentological and geochemical data confirm the presence during Termination I of two events of enhanced delivery of detrital carbonate (Baffin Bay Detrital Carbonate Events) dated to 14.2-13.7 ka BP and 12.7-11 ka BP. The events are synchronous across the Baffin Bay and their mineralogical signature indicates a common source of detrital carbonate from the Canadian Arctic, with a synchronous clastic source proximal to Greenland. The events postdate Heinrich layers and their onset is not linked to Greenland temperature change. This indicates that the deglaciation of American Arctic ice sheets and associated meltwater discharge were decoupled from the dominant North Atlantic climate mode.

Ice shelf snow accumulation rates from the Amundsen-Bellingshausen Sea sector of West Antarctica derived from airborne radar

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Medley, B.; Kurtz, N. T.; Brunt, K. M.

2015-12-01

The large ice shelves surrounding the Antarctic continent buttress inland ice, limiting the grounded ice-sheet flow. Many, but not all, of the thick ice shelves located along the Amundsen-Bellingshausen Seas are experiencing rapid thinning due to enhanced basal melting driven by the intrusion of warm circumpolar deep water. Determination of their mass balance provides an indicator as to the future of the shelves buttressing capability; however, measurements of surface accumulation are few, limiting the precision of the mass balance estimates. Here, we present new radar-derived measurements of snow accumulation primarily over the Getz and Abbott Ice Shelves, as well as the Dotson and Crosson, which have been the focus of several of NASA's Operation IceBridge airborne surveys between 2009 and 2014. Specifically, we use the Center for Remote Sensing of Ice Sheets (CReSIS) snow radar to map the near-surface (< 30 m) internal stratigraphy to measure snow accumulation. Due to the complexities of the local topography (e.g., ice rises and rumples) and their relative proximity to the ocean, the spatial pattern of accumulation can be equally varied. Therefore, atmospheric models might not be able to reproduce these small-scale features because of their limited spatial resolution. To evaluate whether this is the case over these narrow shelves, we will compare the radar-derived accumulation rates with those from atmospheric models.

Towards Estimate of Present Day Ice Melting in Polar Regions From Altimetry, Gravity, Ocean Bottom Pressure and GPS Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Y.; Wu, X.; van den Broeke, M. R.; Munneke, P. K.; Simonsen, S. B.; van der Wal, W.; Vermeersen, B. L.

2013-12-01

The ice sheet in Polar Regions stores the largest freshwater bodies on Earth, sufficient to elevate global sea level by more than 65 meters if melted. The earth may have entered an intensive ice-melting episode, possibly due to anthropogenic global warming rather than natural orbit variations. Determining present-day ice mass balance, however, is complicated by the fact that most observations contain both present day ice melting signal and residual signals from past glacier melting. Despite decades of progress in geodynamic modeling and new observations, significant uncertainties remain in both. The key to separate present-day ice mass change and signals from past melting is to include data of different physical characteristics. We conducted a new global kinematic inversion scheme to estimate both present-day ice melting and past glacier signatures simultaneously and assess their contribution to current and future global mean sea level change. Our approach is designed to invert and separate present-day melting signal in the spherical harmonic domain using a globally distributed interdisciplinary data with distinct physical information. Interesting results with unprecedented precisions have been achieved so far. We will present our results of the estimated present-day ice mass balance trend in both Greenland and Antarctica ice sheet as well as other regions where significant mass change occurs.

Pleistocene hydrology of North America: The role of ice sheets in reorganizing groundwater flow systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Person, Mark; McIntosh, Jennifer; Bense, Victor; Remenda, V. H.

2007-09-01

While the geomorphic consequences of Pleistocene megafloods have been known for some time, it has been only in the past 2 decades that hydrogeologists and glaciologists alike have begun to appreciate the important impact that ice sheet-aquifer interactions have had in controlling subsurface flow patterns, recharge rates, and the distribution of fresh water in confined aquifer systems across North America. In this paper, we document the numerous lines of geochemical, isotopic, and geomechanical evidence of ice sheet hydrogeology across North America. We also review the mechanical, thermal, and hydrologic processes that control subsurface fluid migration beneath ice sheets. Finite element models of subsurface fluid flow, permafrost formation, and ice sheet loading are presented to investigate the coupled nature of transport processes during glaciation/deglaciation. These indicate that recharge rates as high as 10 times modern values occurred as the Laurentide Ice Sheet overran the margins of sedimentary basins. The effects of ice sheet loading and permafrost formation result in complex transient flow patterns within aquifers and confining units alike. Using geochemical and environmental isotopic data, we estimate that the volume of glacial meltwater emplaced at the margins of sedimentary basins overrun by the Laurentide Ice Sheet totals about 3.7 × 104 km3, which is about 0.2% of the volume of the Laurentide Ice Sheet. Subglacial infiltration estimates based on continental-scale hydrologic models are even higher (5-10% of meltwater generated). These studies in sum call into question the widely held notion that groundwater flow patterns within confined aquifer systems are controlled primarily by the water table configuration during the Pleistocene. Rather, groundwater flow patterns were likely much more complex and transient in nature than has previously been thought. Because Pleistocene recharge rates are believed to be highly variable, these studies have profound implications for water resource managers charged with determining sustainable pumping rates from confined aquifers that host ice sheet meltwater.

Greenland plays a large role in the gloomy picture painted of probable future sea-level rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hanna, Edward

2012-12-01

Goelzer et al (2012) paint a portentous picture of what is likely to happen to the global sea-level over the next 1000 years. This worrying assessment is based on our current best understanding of how the world's giant ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica, as well as a quarter of a million smaller glacial ice masses, and the ocean collectively respond to ongoing climate change. Theirs is a state of the science study that integrates these key contributors of sea-level change based on the latest models and current understanding, and an integrated Earth systems modelling approach termed LOVECLIM. As they point out in their study, only a handful of global climate models to date—i.e. models that are used to make predictions of future climate change—incorporate dynamically (fully) coupled ice-sheet models. According to the scenarios presented by Goelzer et al (2012), we could see between 2.1 and 6.8 m of global sea-level rise by 3000 AD, compared with 'just' 1.1 m if the atmosphere is stabilised at 2000 CO2 levels. Much, up to some 4 m, of this contribution comes from increased melting and mass loss of the Greenland ice sheet, which is several times more sensitive than the Antarctic ice sheet to warming temperatures in these simulations. Interestingly, dynamical ice mass losses through iceberg calving become increasingly less significant for Greenland as the ice sheet retreats further inland during the 1000 yr runs (Sole et al 2008). The latest modelling studies show that around a half, perhaps more, of the recent Greenland mass losses (Barletta et al 2012, Rignot et al 2011) are already through increased melt and runoff (Hanna et al 2008, 2012, van den Broeke et al 2009); note also the recent (summer 2012) record surface melting of the Greenland ice sheet (Nghiem et al 2012) caused by atmospheric forcing (Overland et al 2012) and the potential of such events to impact on ice flow (Bartholomew et al 2011). By contrast, the greatest sea-level rise reported for Antarctica by 3000 AD is no more than 94 cm Antarctica remains relatively insensitive for future sea-level rise given a temperature increase of no more than 5-6 °C (quite a lot) above present levels. Oceanic thermal expansion and, especially, glacier melt seem very much second-order effects, compared with the Greenland sea-level contribution, for the next millennium. As expected, there are considerable differences between the outcomes of the model experiments depending on the time and level at which greenhouse gas emissions are stabilised. I am not quite sure why they 'prefer' the model version which reaches stabilisation at 2000 greenhouse gas levels since those levels have since been significantly exceeded and show no signs of tailing off yet—quite the reverse. According to the famous Keeling et al dataset from Mauna Loa in Hawaii, atmospheric CO2 levels at about 369 parts per million by volume of the global atmosphere in 2000 have since risen to about 392 ppmv in 2012, and this increase shows no signs of abating. Realistically, it's going to be at least another decade or two (or longer) before we can effectively even begin to stabilise atmospheric greenhouse gas levels, assuming the political will is there: which at the moment it is not. Of course this does not commit us to the other three more extreme experimental results (from greenhouse gas stabilization at 2100) reported in the study but we are heading dangerously in that direction. In effect the simulations are sensitivity studies, which may be largely unrealistic but are still useful as a kind of guide to what might happen under future climate change. Naturally, many uncertainties remain, especially concerning how ice-sheet motion ('dynamics') is represented in the models (e.g. the absence of so-called 'higher order physics' including longitudinal (push-pull) stresses which can rapidly transfer peripheral ice velocity perturbations inland (Price et al 2011)). Furthermore, the atmospheric model used in LOVECLIM is very coarse at 5.625° latitude/longitude resolution. There appears to be a cancelling out of errors in LOVECLIM, where its climate sensitivity seems quite low (in comparison with other models) but the simulated enhanced high-latitude warming—often termed Arctic amplification and evident in observed climate data for the last 30 years—is quite high. It would be good to include precipitation as well as temperature changes when modelling the future response of glaciers, even though the former is likely to be less important. I do not agree that uncertainties in climate sensitivity can be adequately accounted for by varying boundary and initial conditions in ensembles of models, as all of the model simulations may be systematically biased due to some physical effect that is improperly considered—or unrepresented—by all of the models, but this is a widely used technique and probably the best that can be done here. Despite these caveats, Goelzer et al 's (2012) results will undoubtedly prove useful for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)'s upcoming Fifth Assessment Report due to be released in 2014. The key challenge remains to further improve the individual components of the Earth system model, especially those concerning ice-sheet dynamics. Acknowledgments EH thanks Ben Brock, Amy Jowett and Andrew Sole for useful editorial suggestions to the text. References Barletta V R, Sørensen L S and Forsberg R 2012 Variability of mass changes at basin scale for Greenland and Antarctica Cryosp. Discuss. 6 3397-446 Bartholomew I, Nienow P, Sole A, Mair D, Cowton T and King M A 2011 Seasonal variations in Greenland ice sheet motion: inland extent and behaviour at higher elevations Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 307 271-8 Goelzer H, Huybrechts P, Raper S C B, Loutre M -F, Goosse H and Fichefet T 2012 Millennial total sea-level commitments projected with the Earth system model of intermediate complexity LOVECLIM Environ. Res. Lett. 7 045401 Hanna E, Huybrechts P, Steffen K, Cappelen J, Huff R, Shuman C, Irvine-Fynn T, Wise S and Griffiths M 2008 Increased runoff from melt from the Greenland ice sheet: a response to global warming J. Clim. 21 331-41 Hanna E, Jones J M, Cappelen J, Mernild S H, Wood L, Steffen K and Huybrechts P 2012 The influence of North Atlantic atmospheric and oceanic forcing effects on 1900-2010 Greenland summer climate and ice melt/runoff Int. J. Climatol. at press (doi:10.1002/joc.3475) Nghiem S V, Hall D K, Mote T L, Tedesco M, Albert M R, Keegan K, Shuman C A A, DiGirolamo N E and Neumann G 2012 The extreme melt across the Greenland ice sheet in 2012 Geophys. Res. Lett. at press (doi:10.1029/2012GL053611) Overland J E, Francis J, Hanna E and Wang M 2012 The recent shift in early summer Arctic atmospheric circulation Geophys. Res. Lett. 39 L19804 Price S F, Payne A J, Howat I M and Smith B E 2011 Committed sea-level rise for the next century from Greenland ice sheet dynamics during the past decade Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. 108 8978-83 Rignot E, Velicogna I, van den Broeke M R, Monaghan A and Lenaerts J 2011 Acceleration of the contribution of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets to sea level rise Geophys. Res. Lett. 38 L05503 Sole A, Payne T, Bamber J, Nienow P and Krabill W 2008 Testing hypotheses of the cause of peripheral thinning of the Greenland ice sheet: is land-terminating ice thinning at anomalously high rates? Cryosphere 2 205-18 van den Broeke M, Bamber J, Ettema J, Rignot E, Schrama E, van de Berg W, van Meijgaard E, Velicogna I and Wouters B 2009 Partitioning recent Greenland mass loss Science 326 984-6

Mapping Solid and Liquid Meltwater Retention on the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets from Space

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miller, J.; Bringer, A.; Jezek, K. C.; Johnson, J. T.; Scambos, T.; Forster, R. R.; Long, D. G.

2017-12-01

We use satellite and airborne microwave radiometry to explore the potential for mapping both solid (infiltration ice) and liquid (firn aquifers) meltwater retention on ice sheets. Meltwater retention in firn is currently poorly understood, especially on an ice sheet-scale, however, critical to understanding the ultimate fate of liquid meltwater produced at the surface of ice sheets. Is it contributing to sea level? Or, is it being buffered prior to escaping into the ocean? We previously developed a simple satellite retrieval technique to map firn aquifers on the Greenland ice sheet using distinct L-band brightness temperature signatures that decrease on timescales of months following surface freeze-up, however, similar L-band brightness temperature signatures that decrease on timescales ranging from weeks to days are also present throughout the percolation facies of both the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. We hypothesize this characteristic family of temporal signatures represents meltwater retention within firn, where slowly decreasing signatures are characteristic of meltwater retention within perennial firn aquifers, and rapidly decreasing signatures are characteristic of meltwater retention as superimposed ice. Decreasing signatures on timescales between likely represent a continuum of firn characteristics, such as transient firn aquifers, perched firn aquifers, ice layers, ice pipes and lenses, and iced firn. To investigate these temporal signatures, we use L-band (1.4 GHz) brightness temperature observations collected over the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets by the interferometric MIRAS instrument aboard ESA's Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) satellite, and the radiometer aboard NASA's Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) satellite. We will also investigate spectral signatures using multi-frequency L-band brightness temperature data (0.5-2 GHz) to be collected over several firn aquifer areas on the Greenland ice sheet by the Ohio State University developed Ultra-Wideband Software-Defined Microwave Radiometer (UWBRAD) as part of our airborne field campaign to be conducted in September 2017.

Modelling large-scale ice-sheet-climate interactions at the last glacial inception

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Browne, O. J. H.; Gregory, J. M.; Payne, A. J.; Ridley, J. K.; Rutt, I. C.

2010-05-01

In order to investigate the interactions between coevolving climate and ice-sheets on multimillenial timescales, a low-resolution atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) has been coupled to a three-dimensional thermomechanical ice-sheet model. We use the FAMOUS AOGCM, which is almost identical in formulation to the widely used HadCM3 AOGCM, but on account of its lower resolution (7.5° longitude × 5° latitude in the atmosphere, 3.75°× 2.5° in the ocean) it runs about ten times faster. We use the community ice-sheet model Glimmer at 20 km resolution, with the shallow ice approximation and an annual degree-day scheme for surface mass balance. With the FAMOUS-Glimmer coupled model, we have simulated the growth of the Laurentide and Fennoscandian ice sheets at the last glacial inception, under constant orbital forcing and atmospheric composition for 116 ka BP. Ice grows in both regions, totalling 5.8 m of sea-level equivalent in 10 ka, slower than proxy records suggest. Positive climate feedbacks reinforce this growth at local scales (order hundreds of kilometres), where changes are an order of magnitude larger than on the global average. The albedo feedback (higher local albedo means a cooler climate) is important in the initial expansion of the ice-sheet area. The topography feedback (higher surface means a cooler climate) affects ice-sheet thickness and is not noticeable for the first 1 ka. These two feedbacks reinforce each other. Without them, the ice volume is ~90% less after 10 ka. In Laurentia, ice expands initially on the Canadian Arctic islands. The glaciation of the islands eventually cools the nearby mainland climate sufficiently to produce a positive mass balance there. Adjacent to the ice-sheets, cloud feedbacks tend to reduce the surface mass balance and restrain ice growth; this is an example of a local feedback whose simulation requires a model that includes detailed atmospheric physics.

Long-term record of Barents Sea Ice Sheet advance to the shelf edge from a 140,000 year record

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pope, Ed L.; Talling, Peter J.; Hunt, James E.; Dowdeswell, Julian A.; Allin, Joshua R.; Cartigny, Matthieu J. B.; Long, David; Mozzato, Alessandro; Stanford, Jennifer D.; Tappin, David R.; Watts, Millie

2016-10-01

The full-glacial extent and deglacial behaviour of marine-based ice sheets, such as the Barents Sea Ice Sheet, is well documented since the Last Glacial Maximum about 20,000 years ago. However, reworking of older sea-floor sediments and landforms during repeated Quaternary advances across the shelf typically obscures their longer-term behaviour, which hampers our understanding. Here, we provide the first detailed long-term record of Barents Sea Ice Sheet advances, using the timing of debris-flows on the Bear Island Trough-Mouth Fan. Ice advanced to the shelf edge during four distinct periods over the last 140,000 years. By far the largest sediment volumes were delivered during the oldest advance more than 128,000 years ago. Later advances occurred from 68,000 to 60,000, 39,400 to 36,000 and 26,000 to 20,900 years before present. The debris-flows indicate that the dynamics of the Saalian and the Weichselian Barents Sea Ice Sheet were very different. The repeated ice advance and retreat cycles during the Weichselian were shorter lived than those seen in the Saalian. Sediment composition shows the configuration of the ice sheet was also different between the two glacial periods, implying that the ice feeding the Bear Island Ice stream came predominantly from Scandinavia during the Saalian, whilst it drained more ice from east of Svalbard during the Weichselian.

Ice-Sheet Dynamics and Millennial-Scale Climate Variability in the North Atlantic across the Middle Pleistocene Transition (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hodell, D. A.; Nicholl, J.

2013-12-01

During the Middle Pleistocene Transition (MPT), the climate system evolved from a more linear response to insolation forcing in the '41-kyr world' to one that was decidedly non-linear in the '100-kyr world'. Smaller ice sheets in the early Pleistocene gave way to larger ice sheets in the late Pleistocene with an accompanying change in ice sheet dynamics. We studied Sites U1308 (49° 52.7'N, 24° 14.3'W; 3871 m) and U1304 (53° 3.4'N, 33° 31.8'W; 3024 m) in the North Atlantic to determine how ice sheet dynamics and millennial-scale climate variability evolved as glacial boundary conditions changed across the MPT. The frequency of ice-rafted detritus (IRD) in the North Atlantic was greater during glacial stages prior to 650 ka (MIS 16), reflecting more frequent crossing of an ice volume threshold when the climate system spent more time in the 'intermediate ice volume' window, resulting in persistent millennial scale variability. The rarity of Heinrich Events containing detrital carbonate and more frequent occurrence of IRD events prior to 650 ka may indicate the presence of 'low-slung, slippery ice sheets' that flowed more readily than their post-MPT counterparts (Bailey et al., 2010). Ice volume surpassed a critical threshold across the MPT that permitted ice sheets to survive boreal summer insolation maxima, thereby increasing ice volume and thickness, lengthening glacial cycles, and activating the dynamical processes responsible for Laurentide Ice Sheet instability in the region of Hudson Strait (i.e., Heinrich events). The excess ice volume during post-MPT glacial maxima provided a large, unstable reservoir of freshwater to be released to the North Atlantic during glacial terminations with the potential to perturb Atlantic Meridional Overtunring Circulation. We speculate that orbital- and millennial-scale variability co-evolved across the MPT and the interaction of processes on orbital and suborbital time scales gave rise to the changing patterns of glacial-interglacial cycles through the Quaternary. Bailey, I., Bolton, C.T., DeConto, R.M., Pollard, D., Schiebel, R. and Wilson, P.A. (2010) A low threshold for North Atlantic ice rafting from "low-slung slippery" late Pliocene ice sheets. Paleoceanography, 25, PA1212-[14pp]. (doi:10.1029/2009PA001736).

Last Interglacial climate and sea-level evolution from a coupled ice sheet-climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goelzer, Heiko; Huybrechts, Philippe; Loutre, Marie-France; Fichefet, Thierry

2016-12-01

As the most recent warm period in Earth's history with a sea-level stand higher than present, the Last Interglacial (LIG, ˜ 130 to 115 kyr BP) is often considered a prime example to study the impact of a warmer climate on the two polar ice sheets remaining today. Here we simulate the Last Interglacial climate, ice sheet, and sea-level evolution with the Earth system model of intermediate complexity LOVECLIM v.1.3, which includes dynamic and fully coupled components representing the atmosphere, the ocean and sea ice, the terrestrial biosphere, and the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. In this setup, sea-level evolution and climate-ice sheet interactions are modelled in a consistent framework.Surface mass balance change governed by changes in surface meltwater runoff is the dominant forcing for the Greenland ice sheet, which shows a peak sea-level contribution of 1.4 m at 123 kyr BP in the reference experiment. Our results indicate that ice sheet-climate feedbacks play an important role to amplify climate and sea-level changes in the Northern Hemisphere. The sensitivity of the Greenland ice sheet to surface temperature changes considerably increases when interactive albedo changes are considered. Southern Hemisphere polar and sub-polar ocean warming is limited throughout the Last Interglacial, and surface and sub-shelf melting exerts only a minor control on the Antarctic sea-level contribution with a peak of 4.4 m at 125 kyr BP. Retreat of the Antarctic ice sheet at the onset of the LIG is mainly forced by rising sea level and to a lesser extent by reduced ice shelf viscosity as the surface temperature increases. Global sea level shows a peak of 5.3 m at 124.5 kyr BP, which includes a minor contribution of 0.35 m from oceanic thermal expansion. Neither the individual contributions nor the total modelled sea-level stand show fast multi-millennial timescale variations as indicated by some reconstructions.

Geological and geomorphological insights into Antarctic ice sheet evolution.

PubMed

Sugden, David E; Bentley, Michael J; O Cofaigh, Colm

2006-07-15

Technical advances in the study of ice-free parts of Antarctica can provide quantitative records that are useful for constraining and refining models of ice sheet evolution and behaviour. Such records improve our understanding of system trajectory, influence the questions we ask about system stability and help to define the ice-sheet processes that are relevant on different time-scales. Here, we illustrate the contribution of cosmogenic isotope analysis of exposed bedrock surfaces and marine geophysical surveying to the understanding of Antarctic ice sheet evolution on a range of time-scales. In the Dry Valleys of East Antarctica, 3He dating of subglacial flood deposits that are now exposed on mountain summits provide evidence of an expanded and thicker Mid-Miocene ice sheet. The survival of surface boulders for approximately 14Myr, the oldest yet measured, demonstrates exceptionally low rates of subsequent erosion and points to the persistence and stability of the dry polar desert climate since that time. Increasingly, there are constraints on West Antarctic ice sheet fluctuations during Quaternary glacial cycles. In the Sarnoff Mountains of Marie Byrd Land in West Antarctica, 10Be and 26Al cosmogenic isotope analysis of glacial erratics and bedrock reveal steady thinning of the ice sheet from 10400 years ago to the present, probably as a result of grounding line retreat. In the Antarctic Peninsula, offshore analysis reveals an extensive ice sheet at the last glacial maximum. Based on radiocarbon dating, deglaciation began by 17000cal yr BP and was complete by 9500cal yr BP. Deglaciation of the west and east sides of the Antarctic Peninsula ice sheet occurred at different times and rates, but was largely complete by the Early Holocene. At that time ice shelves were less extensive on the west side of the Antarctic Peninsula than they are today. The message from the past is that individual glacier drainage basins in Antarctica respond in different and distinctive ways to global climate change, depending on the link between regional topography and climate setting.

Icy Layers and Climate Fluctuations near the Martian North Pole

NASA Image and Video Library

2010-03-31

The Martian north polar layered deposits are an ice sheet much like the Greenland ice sheet on the Earth in this image from NASA Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter. This Martian ice sheet contains many layers that record variations in the Martian climate.

Abrupt Bølling warming and ice saddle collapse contributions to the Meltwater Pulse 1a rapid sea level rise: North American MWP1a Contribution

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gregoire, Lauren J.; Otto-Bliesner, Bette; Valdes, Paul J.

Elucidating the source(s) of Meltwater Pulse 1a, the largest rapid sea level rise caused by ice melt (14-18 m in less than 340 years, 14,600 years ago), is important for understanding mechanisms of rapid ice melt and the links with abrupt climate change. Here we quantify how much and by what mechanisms the North American ice sheet could have contributed to Meltwater Pulse 1a, by driving an ice sheet model with two transient climate simulations of the last 21,000 years. Ice sheet perturbed physics ensembles were run to account for model uncertainties, constraining ice extent and volume with reconstructions ofmore » 21,000 years ago to present. We determine that the North American ice sheet produced 3-4 m global mean sea level rise in 340 years due to the abrupt Bølling warming, but this response is amplified to 5-6 m when it triggers the ice sheet saddle collapse.« less

Abrupt Bølling warming and ice saddle collapse contributions to the Meltwater Pulse 1a rapid sea level rise: North American MWP1a Contribution

DOE PAGES

Gregoire, Lauren J.; Otto-Bliesner, Bette; Valdes, Paul J.; ...

2016-08-23

Elucidating the source(s) of Meltwater Pulse 1a, the largest rapid sea level rise caused by ice melt (14-18 m in less than 340 years, 14,600 years ago), is important for understanding mechanisms of rapid ice melt and the links with abrupt climate change. Here we quantify how much and by what mechanisms the North American ice sheet could have contributed to Meltwater Pulse 1a, by driving an ice sheet model with two transient climate simulations of the last 21,000 years. Ice sheet perturbed physics ensembles were run to account for model uncertainties, constraining ice extent and volume with reconstructions ofmore » 21,000 years ago to present. We determine that the North American ice sheet produced 3-4 m global mean sea level rise in 340 years due to the abrupt Bølling warming, but this response is amplified to 5-6 m when it triggers the ice sheet saddle collapse.« less

The impact of dynamic topography on the bedrock elevation and volume of the Pliocene Antarctic Ice Sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Austermann, Jacqueline; Pollard, David; Mitrovica, Jerry X.; Moucha, Robert; Forte, Alessandro M.; DeConto, Robert M.

2015-04-01

Reconstructions of the Antarctic ice sheet over long timescales (i.e. Myrs) require estimates of bedrock elevation through time. Ice sheet models have accounted, with varying levels of sophistication, for changes in the bedrock elevation due to glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA), but they have neglected other processes that may perturb topography. One notable example is dynamic topography, the deflection of the solid surface of the Earth due to convective flow within the mantle. Numerically predicted changes in dynamic topography have been used to correct paleo shorelines for this departure from eustasy, but the effect of such changes on ice sheet stability is unknown. In this study we use numerical predictions of time-varying dynamic topography to reconstruct bedrock elevation below the Antarctic ice sheet during the mid Pliocene warm period (~3 Ma). Moreover, we couple this reconstruction to a three-dimensional ice sheet model to explore the impact of dynamic topography on the evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet since the Pliocene. Our modeling indicates significant uplift in the area of the Transantarctic Mountains (TAM) and the adjacent Wilkes basin. This predicted uplift, which is at the lower end of geological inferences of uplift of the TAM, implies a lower elevation of the basin in the Pliocene. Relative to simulations that do not include dynamic topography, the lower elevation leads to a smaller Antarctic Ice Sheet volume and a more significant retreat of the grounding line in the Wilkes basin, both of which are consistent with offshore sediment core data. We conclude that reconstructions of the Antarctic Ice Sheet during the mid-Pliocene warm period should be based on bedrock elevation models that include the impact of both GIA and dynamic topography.

Global ice-sheet system interlocked by sea level

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Denton, George H.; Hughes, Terence J.; Karlén, Wibjörn

1986-07-01

Denton and Hughes (1983, Quaternary Research20, 125-144) postulated that sea level linked a global ice-sheet system with both terrestrial and grounded marine components during late Quaternary ice ages. Summer temperature changes near Northern Hemisphere melting margins initiated sea-level fluctuations that controlled marine components in both polar hemispheres. It was further proposed that variations of this ice-sheet system amplified and transmitted Milankovitch summer half-year insolation changes between 45 and 75°N into global climatic changes. New tests of this hypothesis implicate sea level as a major control of the areal extent of grounded portions of the Antarctic Ice Sheet, thus fitting the concept of a globally interlocked ice-sheet system. But recent atmospheric modeling results ( Manabe and Broccoli, 1985, Journal of Geophysical Research90, 2167-2190) suggest that factors other than areal changes of the grounded Antarctic Ice Sheet strongly influenced Southern Hemisphere climate and terminated the last ice age simultaneously in both polar hemispheres. Atmospheric carbon dioxide linked to high-latitude oceans is the most likely candidate ( Shackleton and Pisias, 1985, Atmospheric carbon dioxide, orbital forcing, and climate. In "The Carbon Cycle and Atmospheric CO 2: Natural Variations Archean to Present" (E. T. Sundquest and W. S. Broecker, Eds.), pp. 303-318. Geophysical Monograph 32, American Geophysical Union, Washington, D.C.), but another potential influence was high-frequency climatic oscillations (2500 yr). It is postulated that variations in atmospheric carbon dioxide acted through an Antarctic ice shelf linked to the grounded ice sheet to produce and terminate Southern Hemisphere ice-age climate. It is further postulated that Milankovitch summer insolation combined with a warm high-frequency oscillation caused marked recession of Northern Hemisphere ice-sheet melting margins and the North Atlantic polar front about 14,000 14C yr B.P. This permitted renewed formation of North Atlantic Deep Water, which could well have controlled atmospheric carbon dioxide ( W. S. Broecker, D. M. Peteet, and D. Rind, 1985, Nature ( London) 315, 21-26). Combined melting and consequent sea-level rise from the three warming factors initiated irreversible collapse of the interlocked global ice-sheet system, which was at its largest but most vulnerable configuration.

Oligocene sea water temperatures offshore Wilkes Land (Antarctica) indicate warm and stable glacial-interglacial variation and show no 'late Oligocene warming'

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hartman, Julian; Bijl, Peter; Peterse, Francien; Schouten, Stefan; Salabarnada, Ariadna; Bohaty, Steven; Escutia, Carlota; Brinkhuis, Henk; Sangiorgi, Francesca

2017-04-01

At present, warming of the waters below the Antarctic ice shelves is a major contributor to the instability of the Antarctic cryosphere. In order to get insight into future melt behavior of the Antarctic ice sheet, it is important to look at past warm periods that can serve as an analogue for the future. The Oligocene ( 34-23 Ma) is a period within the range of CO2 concentrations predicted by the latest IPCC report for the coming century and is characterized by a very dynamic Antarctic ice sheet, as suggested by benthic δ18O records from ice-distal sites. We suspect that, like today, environmental changes in the Southern Ocean are in part responsible for this dynamicity. To gain more insight into this, we have reconstructed sea water temperatures (SWT) based on Thaumarchaeotal lipids (TEX86) for the Oligocene record obtained from the ice-proximal Site U1356 (Integrated Ocean Drilling Program), offshore Wilkes Land. Part of our record shows a strong coupling between the lithology and SWT, which we attribute to glacial-interglacial variation. Our data shows that both glacial and interglacial temperatures are relatively warm throughout the Oligocene: 14°C and 18°C respectively, which is consistent with previously published estimates based on UK'37 and clumped isotopes for the early Oligocene. Our SST records show only a minor decline between 30 and 24 Ma, and thus show no evidence for a 'late Oligocene warming' as was suggested based on benthic δ18O records from low latitudes. Instead, the discrepancy between our SST trend and the δ18O trend suggests that the late-Oligocene benthic δ18O decrease is likely related to a decline in ice volume. After 24 Ma, however, glacial-interglacial temperature variation appears to increase. In particular, some large temperature drops occur, one of which can be related to the Mi-1 event and a major expansion of the Antarctic ice sheet.

The Pliocene-Pleistocene transition and the onset of the Northern Hemisphere glacial inception

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robinson, A.; Calov, R.; Ganopolski, A.

2011-12-01

The Pliocene-Pleistocene transition (PPT, ca. 3.3-2.4 Ma BP) marks a shift in the Earth's climate and is believed to coincide with the inception of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) ice sheets. This transition is not only characterized by a gradual reduction in atmospheric CO2 concentration, paleo records also show a strengthening in the amplitude of δ18O data and intensified ice rafted debris deposition in the North Atlantic. Previous modeling studies have demonstrated that the drop in atmospheric CO2 plays an important role in the glaciation of the NH ice sheets, and more specifically, it is considered to be the primary cause of the glaciation of Greenland. Here we apply a novel approach to produce transient simulations of the entire PPT, in order to study the glaciation of Greenland and the NH ice sheets and additionally, to investigate which conditions are necessary for full-scale glaciation. The fully-coupled Earth system model of intermediate complexity CLIMBER-2 is used to explore the effects of a suite of orbital and CO2 forcing scenarios on total NH glaciation. CLIMBER-2 includes low-resolution sub-models of the atmosphere, vegetation, ocean and ice sheets - the latter is designed to simulate the big NH ice sheets with a rather low resolution (and high computational efficiency). As a refinement, the results of the global simulations are then used to force regional simulations of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) using the higher resolution (20 km) regional climate-ice sheet model, REMBO-SICOPOLIS. We present results of transient simulations driven by orbital forcing and several CO2 reduction scenarios that are consistent with best estimates from data for this time period. We discuss the growth and persistence of the NH ice sheets in terms of the forcing and feedbacks involved. Additionally, we present a set of simulations with the growth of the NH ice sheets disabled, in order to quantify the effect the large ice sheets have on global and regional temperature anomalies. By simulating the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) in our high resolution coupled global-regional approach, we identify with greater precision, the conditions neccesary for inception of the GIS and link these to global climatic changes.

Variability of Surface Temperature and Melt on the Greenland Ice Sheet, 2000-2011

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hall, Dorothy K.; Comiso, Josefino, C.; Shuman, Christopher A.; Koenig, Lora S.; DiGirolamo, Nicolo E.

2012-01-01

Enhanced melting along with surface-temperature increases measured using infrared satellite data, have been documented for the Greenland Ice Sheet. Recently we developed a climate-quality data record of ice-surface temperature (IST) of the Greenland Ice Sheet using the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) 1ST product -- http://modis-snow-ice.gsfc.nasa.gov. Using daily and mean monthly MODIS 1ST maps from the data record we show maximum extent of melt for the ice sheet and its six major drainage basins for a 12-year period extending from March of 2000 through December of 2011. The duration of the melt season on the ice sheet varies in different drainage basins with some basins melting progressively earlier over the study period. Some (but not all) of the basins also show a progressively-longer duration of melt. The short time of the study period (approximately 12 years) precludes an evaluation of statistically-significant trends. However the dataset provides valuable information on natural variability of IST, and on the ability of the MODIS instrument to capture changes in IST and melt conditions indifferent drainage basins of the ice sheet.

Simulating a Dynamic Antarctic Ice Sheet in the Early to Middle Miocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gasson, E.; DeConto, R.; Pollard, D.; Levy, R. H.

2015-12-01

There are a variety of sources of geological data that suggest major variations in the volume and extent of the Antarctic ice sheet during the early to middle Miocene. Simulating such variability using coupled climate-ice sheet models is problematic due to a strong hysteresis effect caused by height-mass balance feedback and albedo feedback. This results in limited retreat of the ice sheet once it has reached the continental size, as likely occurred prior to the Miocene. Proxy records suggest a relatively narrow range of atmospheric CO2 during the early to middle Miocene, which exacerbates this problem. We use a new climate forcing which accounts for ice sheet-climate feedbacks through an asynchronous GCM-RCM coupling, which is able to better resolve the narrow Antarctic ablation zone in warm climate simulations. When combined with recently suggested mechanisms for retreat into subglacial basins due to ice shelf hydrofracture and ice cliff failure, we are able to simulate large-scale variability of the Antarctic ice sheet in the Miocene. This variability is equivalent to a seawater oxygen isotope signal of ~0.5 ‰, or a sea level equivalent change of ~35 m, for a range of atmospheric CO2 between 280 - 500 ppm.

Quantifying ocean and ice sheet contributions to nutrient fluxes in Sermilik Fjord, Southeast Greenland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cape, M. R.; Straneo, F.; Beaird, N.; Bundy, R.; Charette, M. A.

2016-12-01

Meltwater discharged at the margins of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) represents a potential source of nutrients to biological communities downstream. In Greenland's glacial fjords, this discharge occurs at depth below and along the face of deeply grounded marine-terminating glaciers. This process drives vigorous circulation and mixing between melt and ambient waters at the ice-ocean margins, giving rise to a new glacially modified water mass (GMW) which constitutes the primary vehicle for transport of meltwater in the marine environment. While previous field studies have noted nutrient enrichment in GMW with respect to unmodified waters along the shelf, the source of this enrichment, whether due to entrainment of deep ambient waters or input by meltwater, remains poorly understood. This knowledge is however critical in order to evaluate the current and future contributions of the GrIS to marine biogeochemical cycling. Here we shed light on the distribution, composition, and properties of GMW along the GrIS margin by analyzing integrated physical and chemical measurements collected in August 2015 in Sermilik Fjord, a major glacial freshwater export pathway. Our results document up to a doubling of nutrient concentrations (nitrate, silicate, phosphate, and iron) in GMW, which is distributed in the top 300 m of the water column throughout the fjord. Partitioning of ocean and ice sheet contributions to GMW nutrient load demonstrates that upwelled waters are the primary source of macro-nutrients to GMW. We expand on these results to discuss the magnitude of fluxes in context of previous observations along the GrIS margins, export pathways of GMW to the shelf, and knowledge gaps needed to be addressed to better constrain ice sheet contributions to marine ecosystem processes.

Assessment of climate variability of the Greenland Ice Sheet: Integration of in situ and satellite data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Steffen, K.; Abdalati, W.; Stroeve, J.; Key, J.

1994-01-01

The proposed research involves the application of multispectral satellite data in combination with ground truth measurements to monitor surface properties of the Greenland Ice Sheet which are essential for describing the energy and mass of the ice sheet. Several key components of the energy balance are parameterized using satellite data and in situ measurements. The analysis will be done for a ten year time period in order to get statistics on the seasonal and interannual variations of the surface processes and the climatology. Our goal is to investigate to what accuracy and over what geographic areas large scale snow properties and radiative fluxes can be derived based upon a combination of available remote sensing and meteorological data sets. Operational satellite sensors are calibrated based on ground measurements and atmospheric modeling prior to large scale analysis to ensure the quality of the satellite data. Further, several satellite sensors of different spatial and spectral resolution are intercompared to access the parameter accuracy. Proposed parameterization schemes to derive key component of the energy balance from satellite data are validated. For the understanding of the surface processes a field program was designed to collect information on spectral albedo, specular reflectance, soot content, grain size and the physical properties of different snow types. Further, the radiative and turbulent fluxes at the ice/snow surface are monitored for the parameterization and interpretation of the satellite data. The expected results include several baseline data sets of albedo, surface temperature, radiative fluxes, and different snow types of the entire Greenland Ice Sheet. These climatological data sets will be of potential use for climate sensitivity studies in the context of future climate change.

Melt-induced speed-up of Greenland ice sheet offset by efficient subglacial drainage.

PubMed

Sundal, Aud Venke; Shepherd, Andrew; Nienow, Peter; Hanna, Edward; Palmer, Steven; Huybrechts, Philippe

2011-01-27

Fluctuations in surface melting are known to affect the speed of glaciers and ice sheets, but their impact on the Greenland ice sheet in a warming climate remains uncertain. Although some studies suggest that greater melting produces greater ice-sheet acceleration, others have identified a long-term decrease in Greenland's flow despite increased melting. Here we use satellite observations of ice motion recorded in a land-terminating sector of southwest Greenland to investigate the manner in which ice flow develops during years of markedly different melting. Although peak rates of ice speed-up are positively correlated with the degree of melting, mean summer flow rates are not, because glacier slowdown occurs, on average, when a critical run-off threshold of about 1.4 centimetres a day is exceeded. In contrast to the first half of summer, when flow is similar in all years, speed-up during the latter half is 62 ± 16 per cent less in warmer years. Consequently, in warmer years, the period of fast ice flow is three times shorter and, overall, summer ice flow is slower. This behaviour is at odds with that expected from basal lubrication alone. Instead, it mirrors that of mountain glaciers, where melt-induced acceleration of flow ceases during years of high melting once subglacial drainage becomes efficient. A model of ice-sheet flow that captures switching between cavity and channel drainage modes is consistent with the run-off threshold, fast-flow periods, and later-summer speeds we have observed. Simulations of the Greenland ice-sheet flow under climate warming scenarios should account for the dynamic evolution of subglacial drainage; a simple model of basal lubrication alone misses key aspects of the ice sheet's response to climate warming.

The geomorphic signature of present ice-sheet flow in the radar-sounded subglacial record: Pine Island Glacier, West Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bingham, R. G.; Davies, D.; King, E. C.; Vaughan, D. G.; Cornford, S. L.; Brisbourne, A.; Smith, A.; De Rydt, J.; Graham, A. G. C.; Spagnolo, M.

2016-12-01

Deglaciated landscapes and landforms are much used in the quest to reconstruct past ice-sheet behaviour, on the principle that aspects of landform shapes, sizes and relative associations "fossilise" palaeo-ice-sheet processes. Such techniques have been widely used around the margin of the marine West Antarctic Ice Sheet, taking advantage of bathymetric surveying techniques which have exposed a rich suite of landform assemblages across West Antarctica's continental shelf. Though these geomorphological interpretations are solidly grounded in glacial geological theory, there has, until now, been little ability to compare these deglaciated, and potentially postglacially-modified, landforms offshore with landforms currently situated (and potentially still evolving) beneath the contemporary ice sheet. This paper presents a widespread view of glacial landforms presently situated beneath 1-2 km of ice in multi-square-km "windows to the bed" distributed throughout the catchment of Pine Island Glacier, West Antarctica. Imaged over three field seasons between 2007 and 2013 by dedicated radar surveys designed specifically to capture landforms analogous to those surveyed offshore by bathymetric surveying, the results provide significant insights for the interpretation of palaeo-ice-stream landforms, and their use in modelling ice-ocean interactions around the fringes of marine ice sheets. We show that landform sizes, shapes and associations vary significantly around Pine Island Glacier's catchment. The key controls appear to be substrate composition, pre-existing tectonic structure, and longstanding spatial stability of the ice-stream's flow distribution. The findings offer crucial information for modelling ice coupling to the bed, which should feed through to wider efforts to reconstruct the past behaviour of this significant marine ice sheet using its palaeoglacial landforms.

Exploring changes in vertical ice extent along the margin of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet in western Dronning Maud Land - initial results of the MAGIC-DML collaboration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lifton, N. A.; Newall, J. C.; Fredin, O.; Glasser, N. F.; Fabel, D.; Rogozhina, I.; Bernales, J.; Prange, M.; Sams, S.; Eisen, O.; Hättestrand, C.; Harbor, J.; Stroeven, A. P.

2017-12-01

Numerical ice sheet models constrained by theory and refined by comparisons with observational data are a central component of work to address the interactions between the cryosphere and changing climate, at a wide range of scales. Such models are tested and refined by comparing model predictions of past ice geometries with field-based reconstructions from geological, geomorphological, and ice core data. However, on the East Antarctic Ice sheet, there are few empirical data with which to reconstruct changes in ice sheet geometry in the Dronning Maud Land (DML) region. In addition, there is poor control on the regional climate history of the ice sheet margin, because ice core locations, where detailed reconstructions of climate history exist, are located on high inland domes. This leaves numerical models of regional glaciation history in this near-coastal area largely unconstrained. MAGIC-DML is an ongoing Swedish-US-Norwegian-German-UK collaboration with a focus on improving ice sheet models by combining advances in numerical modeling with filling critical data gaps that exist in our knowledge of the timing and pattern of ice surface changes on the western Dronning Maud Land margin. A combination of geomorphological mapping using remote sensing data, field investigations, cosmogenic nuclide surface exposure dating, and numerical ice-sheet modeling are being used in an iterative manner to produce a comprehensive reconstruction of the glacial history of western Dronning Maud Land. We will present an overview of the project, as well as field observations and preliminary in situ cosmogenic nuclide measurements from the 2016/17 expedition.

Future sea-level rise from tidewater and ice-shelf tributary glaciers of the Antarctic Peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schannwell, Clemens; Barrand, Nicholas E.; Radić, Valentina

2016-11-01

Iceberg calving and increased ice discharge from ice-shelf tributary glaciers contribute significant amounts to global sea-level rise (SLR) from the Antarctic Peninsula (AP). Owing to ongoing ice dynamical changes (collapse of buttressing ice shelves), these contributions have accelerated in recent years. As the AP is one of the fastest warming regions on Earth, further ice dynamical adjustment (increased ice discharge) is expected over the next two centuries. In this paper, the first regional SLR projection of the AP from both iceberg calving and increased ice discharge from ice-shelf tributary glaciers in response to ice-shelf collapse is presented. An ice-sheet model forced by temperature output from 13 global climate models (GCMs), in response to the high greenhouse gas emission scenario (RCP8.5), projects AP contribution to SLR of 28 ± 16 to 32 ± 16 mm by 2300, partitioned approximately equally between contributions from tidewater glaciers and ice-shelf tributary glaciers. In the RCP4.5 scenario, sea-level rise projections to 2300 are dominated by tidewater glaciers (∼8-18 mm). In this cooler scenario, 2.4 ± 1 mm is added to global sea levels from ice-shelf tributary drainage basins as fewer ice-shelves are projected to collapse. Sea-level projections from ice-shelf tributary glaciers are dominated by drainage basins feeding George VI Ice Shelf, accounting for ∼70% of simulated SLR. Combined total ice dynamical SLR projections to 2300 from the AP vary between 11 ± 2 and 32 ± 16 mm sea-level equivalent (SLE), depending on the emission scenario used. These simulations suggest that omission of tidewater glaciers could lead to a substantial underestimation of the ice-sheet's contribution to regional SLR.

Sensitivity of grounding line dynamics to viscoelastic deformation of the solid Earth: Inferences from a fully coupled ice sheet - solid Earth model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Konrad, H.; Sasgen, I.; Thoma, M.; Klemann, V.; Grosfeld, K.; Martinec, Z.

2013-12-01

The interactions of ice sheets with the sea level and the solid Earth are important factors for the stability of the ice shelves and the tributary inland ice (e.g. Thomas and Bentley, 1978; Gomez et al, 2012). First, changes in ice extent and ice thickness induce viscoelastic deformation of the Earth surface and Earth's gravity field. In turn, global and local changes in sea level and bathymetry affect the grounding line and, subsequently, alter the ice dynamic behaviour. Here, we investigate these feedbacks for a synthetic ice sheet configuration as well as for the Antarctic ice sheet using a three-dimensional thermomechanical ice sheet and shelf model, coupled to a viscoelastic solid-Earth and gravitationally self-consistent sea-level model. The respective ice sheet undergoes a forcing from rising sea level, warming ocean, and/or changing surface mass balance. The coupling is realized by exchanging ice thickness, Earth surface deformation, and sea level periodically. We apply several sets of viscoelastic Earth parameters to our coupled model, e.g. simulating a low-viscous upper mantle present at the Antarctic Peninsula (Ivins et al., 2011). Special focus of our study lies on the evolution of Earth surface deformation and local sea level changes, as well as on the accompanying grounding line evolution. N. Gomez, D. Pollard, J. X. Mitrovica, P. Huybers, and P. U. Clark 2012. Evolution of a coupled marine ice sheet-sea level model, J. Geophys. Res., 117, F01013, doi:10.1029/2011JF002128. E. R. Ivins, M. M. Watkins, D.-N. Yuan, R. Dietrich, G. Casassa, and A. Rülke 2011. On-land ice loss and glacial isostatic adjustment at the Drake Passage: 2003-2009, J. Geophys. Res. 116, B02403, doi: 10.1029/2010JB007607 R. H. Thomas and C. R. Bentley 1978. A model for Holocene retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, Quaternary Research, 10 (2), pages 150-170, doi: 10.1016/0033-5894(78)90098-4.

Evaluation of Ice sheet evolution and coastline changes from 1960s in Amery Ice Shelf using multi-source remote sensing images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qiao, G.; Ye, W.; Scaioni, M.; Liu, S.; Feng, T.; Liu, Y.; Tong, X.; Li, R.

2013-12-01

Global change is one of the major challenges that all the nations are commonly facing, and the Antarctica ice sheet changes have been playing a critical role in the global change research field during the past years. Long time-series of ice sheet observations in Antarctica would contribute to the quantitative evaluation and precise prediction of the effects on global change induced by the ice sheet, of which the remote sensing technology would make critical contributions. As the biggest ice shelf and one of the dominant drainage systems in East Antarctic, the Amery Ice Shelf has been making significant contributions to the mass balance of the Antarctic. Study of Amery Ice shelf changes would advance the understanding of Antarctic ice shelf evolution as well as the overall mass balance. At the same time, as one of the important indicators of Antarctica ice sheet characteristics, coastlines that can be detected from remote sensing imagery can help reveal the nature of the changes of ice sheet evolution. Most of the scientific research on Antarctica with satellite remote sensing dated from 1970s after LANDSAT satellite was brought into operation. It was the declassification of the cold war satellite reconnaissance photographs in 1995, known as Declassified Intelligence Satellite Photograph (DISP) that provided a direct overall view of the Antarctica ice-sheet's configuration in 1960s, greatly extending the time span of Antarctica surface observations. This paper will present the evaluation of ice-sheet evolution and coastline changes in Amery Ice Shelf from 1960s, by using multi-source remote sensing images including the DISP images and the modern optical satellite images. The DISP images scanned from negatives were first interior-oriented with the associated parameters, and then bundle block adjustment technology was employed based on the tie points and control points, to derive the mosaic image of the research region. Experimental results of coastlines generated from DISP images and that from ASTER images were analyzed, and the changes and evolution of Amery ice shelf were then evaluated, following by the discussion of the possible drives.

Surface water hydrology and the Greenland Ice Sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, L. C.; Yang, K.; Pitcher, L. H.; Overstreet, B. T.; Chu, V. W.; Rennermalm, A. K.; Cooper, M. G.; Gleason, C. J.; Ryan, J.; Hubbard, A.; Tedesco, M.; Behar, A.

2016-12-01

Mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet now exceeds 260 Gt/year, raising global sea level by >0.7 mm annually. Approximately two-thirds of this total mass loss is now driven by negative ice sheet surface mass balance (SMB), attributed mainly to production and runoff of meltwater from the ice sheet surface. This new dominance of runoff as a driver of GrIS total mass loss will likely persist owing to anticipated further increases in surface melting, reduced meltwater storage in firn, and the waning importance of dynamical mass losses (ice calving) as the ice sheets retreat from their marine-terminating margins. It also creates the need and opportunity for integrative research pairing traditional surface water hydrology approaches with glaciology. As one example, we present a way to measure supraglacial "runoff" (i.e. specific discharge) at the supraglacial catchment scale ( 101-102 km2), using in situ measurements of supraglacial river discharge and high-resolution satellite/drone mapping of upstream catchment area. This approach, which is standard in terrestrial hydrology but novel for ice sheet science, enables independent verification and improvement of modeled SMB runoff estimates used to project sea level rise. Furthermore, because current SMB models do not consider the role of fluvial watershed processes operating on the ice surface, inclusion of even a simple surface routing model materially improves simulations of runoff delivered to moulins, the critical pathways for meltwater entry into the ice sheet. Incorporating principles of surface water hydrology and fluvial geomorphology and into glaciological models will thus aid estimates of Greenland meltwater runoff to the global ocean as well as connections to subglacial hydrology and ice sheet dynamics.

Impacts of polar ice sheets on the East Asian monsoon during the MIS-13 interglacial

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, Feng; Yin, Qiuzhen; Nikolova, Irina; Guo, Zhengtang; Berger, Andre

2017-04-01

Among all the interglacials of the last one million years, Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 13 has the highest δ18O value over the past 800 ka in the deep-sea sediments. This would indicate that MIS-13 is the coolest interglacial if assuming δ18O mainly represents global ice volume. The Antarctic ice core records show also that MIS-13 is the coolest interglacial over Antarctica with almost the lowest greenhouse gases concentrations (GHG). However, many proxy records from the northern hemisphere (NH) indicate that MIS-13 is at least as warm as or even warmer than the recent interglacials, with extremely strong summer monsoon and a possible melting of Greenland ice sheet. In this study, based on proxy reconstructions, different scenarios regarding the size of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets are made, and the response of the East Asian summer monsoon to these scenarios are tested by using the models HadCM3 and LOVECLIM as well as factor separation analysis and under the astronomical and GHG configurations of MIS-13. The results show that the influence of the disappearance of Greenland ice sheet on the surface temperature is quite localized, mainly over the northern high latitudinal regions, however, the influence of the bigger southern Hemisphere (SH) ice sheet on the surface temperature is very global, especially in the southern hemisphere. This ice sheet condition has an impact on the precipitation pattern over tropical-subtropical regions. It causes much more summer precipitation over all the East Asian monsoon region, in consistent with the paleosol record from southern China. The scenario of melted Greenland ice sheet and of larger SH ice sheets provides one of the explanations of the strong monsoon rainfall documented by the proxy data.

The Last Interglacial History of the Antarctic Ice sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bradley, Sarah; Siddall, Mark; Milne, Glenn A.; Masson-Delmotte, Valerie; Wolff, Eric; Hindmarsh, Richard C. A.

2014-05-01

In this paper we present a summary of the work which was conducted as part of the 'PAST4FUTURE -WP4.1: Sea Level and Ice sheets' project. The overall aim of this study was to understand the response of the Antarctic Ice sheet (AIS) to climate forcing during the Last interglacial (LIG) and its contribution to the observed higher than present sea level during this period. The study involved the application and development of a novel technique which combined East Antarctic stable isotope ice core data with the output from a Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) model [Bradley et al., 2012]. We investigated if the stable isotope ice core data are sensitive to detecting isostatically driven changes in the surface elevation driven by changes in the ice-loading history of the AIS and if so, could we address some key questions relating to the LIG history of the AIS. Although it is believed that the West Antarctic Ice sheet (WAIS) reduced in size during the LIG compared to the Holocene, major uncertainties and unknowns remain unresolved: Did the WAIS collapse? What would the contribution of such a collapse be the higher than present LIG eustatic sea level (ESL)? We will show that a simulated collapse of the WAIS does not generate a significant elevation driven signal at the EAIS LIG ice core sites, and as such, these ice core records cannot be used to assess WAIS stability over this period. However, we will present 'treasure maps' [Bradley et al., 2012] to identify regions of the AIS where results from geological studies and/or new paleoclimate data may be sensitive to detecting a WAIS collapse. These maps can act as a useful tool for the wider science community/field scientists as a guide to highlight sites suitable to constrain the evolution of the WAIS during the LIG. Studies have proposed that the surface temperature across the East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) was significantly warmer, 2-5°C during the LIG compared to present [Lang and Wolff, 2011]. These higher temperatures are estimated primarily using the difference in the δD peak in the LIG stable isotope ice core data relative to the records for the present interglacial; a feature which is referred to as the 'LIG overshoot'. Generally studies have attributed most of this signal to changes in the Antarctic climate [Masson-Delmotte et al., 2011]. However, a previously overlooked contribution is the influence of changes in surface elevation driven by changes in ice-loading history of the EAIS [Bradley et al., 2013]. We will show that introducing a relatively moderate reduction in the amount of thickening of the EAIS over the LIG, can generate a significant elevation driven δD signal at the EAIS ice core sites, and as such elevation effects can account for a significant fraction of the LIG overshoot. We will conclude that the potential contribution of this process must be considered when using the EAIS stable isotope ice core data to make estimated of the LIG surface temperature. Finally, we will provide estimates of the contribution of the AIS to both ESL and to the higher than observed relative sea level during the LIG. Bradley, S. L., M. Siddall, G. A. Milne, V. Masson-Delmotte, and E. Wolff (2012), Where might we find evidence of a Last Interglacial West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse in Antarctic ice core records?, Global and Planetary Change, 88-89(0), 64-75. Bradley, S. L., M. Siddall, G. A. Milne, V. Masson-Delmotte, and E. Wolff (2013), Combining ice core records and ice sheet models to explore the evolution of the East Antarctic Ice sheet during the Last Interglacial period, Global and Planetary Change, 100, 278-290. Lang, N., and E. W. Wolff (2011), Interglacial and glacial variability from the last 800 ka in marine, ice and terrestrial archives, Clim. Past., 7(2), 361-380. Masson-Delmotte, V., et al. (2011), A comparison of the present and last interglacial periods in six Antarctic ice cores, Clim. Past., 7(2), 397-423.

Extensive dynamic thinning on the margins of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets.

PubMed

Pritchard, Hamish D; Arthern, Robert J; Vaughan, David G; Edwards, Laura A

2009-10-15

Many glaciers along the margins of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets are accelerating and, for this reason, contribute increasingly to global sea-level rise. Globally, ice losses contribute approximately 1.8 mm yr(-1) (ref. 8), but this could increase if the retreat of ice shelves and tidewater glaciers further enhances the loss of grounded ice or initiates the large-scale collapse of vulnerable parts of the ice sheets. Ice loss as a result of accelerated flow, known as dynamic thinning, is so poorly understood that its potential contribution to sea level over the twenty-first century remains unpredictable. Thinning on the ice-sheet scale has been monitored by using repeat satellite altimetry observations to track small changes in surface elevation, but previous sensors could not resolve most fast-flowing coastal glaciers. Here we report the use of high-resolution ICESat (Ice, Cloud and land Elevation Satellite) laser altimetry to map change along the entire grounded margins of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. To isolate the dynamic signal, we compare rates of elevation change from both fast-flowing and slow-flowing ice with those expected from surface mass-balance fluctuations. We find that dynamic thinning of glaciers now reaches all latitudes in Greenland, has intensified on key Antarctic grounding lines, has endured for decades after ice-shelf collapse, penetrates far into the interior of each ice sheet and is spreading as ice shelves thin by ocean-driven melt. In Greenland, glaciers flowing faster than 100 m yr(-1) thinned at an average rate of 0.84 m yr(-1), and in the Amundsen Sea embayment of Antarctica, thinning exceeded 9.0 m yr(-1) for some glaciers. Our results show that the most profound changes in the ice sheets currently result from glacier dynamics at ocean margins.

Programme for Monitoring of the Greenland Ice Sheet - Ice Surface Velocities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andersen, S. B.; Ahlstrom, A. P.; Boncori, J. M.; Dall, J.

2011-12-01

In 2007, the Danish Ministry of Climate and Energy launched the Programme for Monitoring of the Greenland Ice Sheet (PROMICE) as an ongoing effort to assess changes in the mass budget of the Greenland Ice Sheet. Iceberg calving from the outlet glaciers of the Greenland Ice Sheet, often termed the ice-dynamic mass loss, is responsible for an important part of the mass loss during the last decade. To quantify this part of the mass loss, we combine airborne surveys yielding ice-sheet thickness along the entire margin, with surface velocities derived from satellite synthetic-aperture radar (SAR). In order to derive ice sheet surface velocities from SAR a processing chain has been developed for GEUS by DTU Space based on a commercial software package distributed by GAMMA Remote Sensing. The processor, named SUSIE (Scripts and Utilities for SAR Ice-motion Estimation), can use both differential SAR interferometry and offset-tracking techniques to measure the horizontal velocity components, providing also an estimate of the corresponding measurement error. So far surface velocities have been derived for a number of sites including Nioghalvfjerdsfjord Glacier, the Kangerlussuaq region, the Nuuk region, Helheim Glacier and Daugaard-Jensen Glacier using data from ERS-1/ERS-2, ENVISAT ASAR and ALOS Palsar. Here we will present these first results.

Radar attenuation and temperature within the Greenland Ice Sheet

USGS Publications Warehouse

MacGregor, Joseph A; Li, Jilu; Paden, John D; Catania, Ginny A; Clow, Gary D.; Fahnestock, Mark A; Gogineni, Prasad S.; Grimm, Robert E.; Morlighem, Mathieu; Nandi, Soumyaroop; Seroussi, Helene; Stillman, David E

2015-01-01

The flow of ice is temperature-dependent, but direct measurements of englacial temperature are sparse. The dielectric attenuation of radio waves through ice is also temperature-dependent, and radar sounding of ice sheets is sensitive to this attenuation. Here we estimate depth-averaged radar-attenuation rates within the Greenland Ice Sheet from airborne radar-sounding data and its associated radiostratigraphy. Using existing empirical relationships between temperature, chemistry, and radar attenuation, we then infer the depth-averaged englacial temperature. The dated radiostratigraphy permits a correction for the confounding effect of spatially varying ice chemistry. Where radar transects intersect boreholes, radar-inferred temperature is consistently higher than that measured directly. We attribute this discrepancy to the poorly recognized frequency dependence of the radar-attenuation rate and correct for this effect empirically, resulting in a robust relationship between radar-inferred and borehole-measured depth-averaged temperature. Radar-inferred englacial temperature is often lower than modern surface temperature and that of a steady state ice-sheet model, particularly in southern Greenland. This pattern suggests that past changes in surface boundary conditions (temperature and accumulation rate) affect the ice sheet's present temperature structure over a much larger area than previously recognized. This radar-inferred temperature structure provides a new constraint for thermomechanical models of the Greenland Ice Sheet.

Evidence of unfrozen liquids and seismic anisotropy at the base of the polar ice sheets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wittlinger, Gérard; Farra, Véronique

2015-03-01

We analyze seismic data from broadband stations located on the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets to determine polar ice seismic velocities. P-to-S converted waves at the ice/rock interface and inside the ice sheets and their multiples (the P-receiver functions) are used to estimate in-situ P-wave velocity (Vp) and P-to-S velocity ratio (Vp/Vs) of polar ice. We find that the polar ice sheets have a two-layer structure; an upper layer of variable thickness (about 2/3 of the total thickness) with seismic velocities close to the standard ice values, and a lower layer of approximately constant thickness with standard Vp but ∼25% smaller Vs. The lower layer ceiling corresponds approximately to the -30 °C isotherm. Synthetic modeling of P-receiver functions shows that strong seismic anisotropy and low vertical S velocity are needed in the lower layer. The seismic anisotropy results from the preferred orientation of ice crystal c-axes toward the vertical. The low vertical S velocity may be due to the presence of unfrozen liquids resulting from premelting at grain joints and/or melting of chemical solutions buried in the ice. The strongly preferred ice crystal orientation fabric and the unfrozen fluids may facilitate polar ice sheet basal flow.

Holocene temperature shifts around Greenland: Paleolimnological approaches to quantifying past warmth and documenting its consequences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Axford, Y.; Lasher, G. E.; McFarlin, J. M.; Francis, D. R.; Kelly, M. A.; Langdon, P. G.; Levy, L.; Osburn, M. R.; Osterberg, E. C.

2015-12-01

Insolation-driven warmth across the Arctic during the early to middle Holocene (the Holocene Thermal Maximum, or HTM) represents a geologically accessible analog for future warming and its impacts. Improved constraints on the magnitude and seasonality of HTM warmth around Greenland's margins can advance the use of paleoclimate data to test and improve climate and ice sheet models. Here we present an overview of our recent efforts to reconstruct climate through the Holocene around the margins of the Greenland Ice Sheet using multiple proxies in lake sediments. We use insect (chironomid) assemblages to derive quantitative estimates of Holocene temperatures at sites with minimal soil and vegetation development near the eastern, northwestern and western margins of the ice sheet. Our chironomid-based temperature reconstructions consistently imply HTM July air temperatures 3 to 4.5 °C warmer than the pre-industrial late Holocene in these sectors of Greenland. The timing of reconstructed peak warmth differs between sites, with onset varying from ~10 ka to ~6.5 ka, but in good agreement with glacial geology and other evidence from each region. Our reconstructed temperature anomalies are larger than those typically inferred from annually-integrated indicators from the ice sheet itself, but comparable to the few other quantitative summer temperature estimates available from beyond the ice sheet on Greenland. Additional records are needed to confirm the magnitude of HTM warmth and to better define its seasonality and spatial pattern. To provide independent constraints on paleotemperatures and to elucidate additional aspects of Holocene paleoclimate, we are also employing oxygen isotopes of chironomid remains and other aquatic organic materials, and molecular organic proxies, in parallel (see Lasher et al. and McFarlin et al., this meeting). Combined with glacial geologic evidence, these multi-proxy records elucidate diverse aspects of HTM climate around Greenland - including temperature, hydroclimate, and the response of Greenland's glaciers to past climate change.

How much can Greenland melt? An upper bound on mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet through surface melting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, X.; Bassis, J. N.

2015-12-01

With observations showing accelerated mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet due to surface melt, the Greenland Ice Sheet is becoming one of the most significant contributors to sea level rise. The contribution of the Greenland Ice Sheet o sea level rise is likely to accelerate in the coming decade and centuries as atmospheric temperatures continue to rise, potentially triggering ever larger surface melt rates. However, at present considerable uncertainty remains in projecting the contribution to sea level of the Greenland Ice Sheet both due to uncertainty in atmospheric forcing and the ice sheet response to climate forcing. Here we seek an upper bound on the contribution of surface melt from the Greenland to sea level rise in the coming century using a surface energy balance model coupled to an englacial model. We use IPCC Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP8.5, RCP6, RCP4.5, RCP2.6) climate scenarios from an ensemble of global climate models in our simulations to project the maximum rate of ice volume loss and related sea-level rise associated with surface melting. To estimate the upper bound, we assume the Greenland Ice Sheet is perpetually covered in thick clouds, which maximize longwave radiation to the ice sheet. We further assume that deposition of black carbon darkens the ice substantially turning it nearly black, substantially reducing its albedo. Although assuming that all melt water not stored in the snow/firn is instantaneously transported off the ice sheet increases mass loss in the short term, refreezing of retained water warms the ice and may lead to more melt in the long term. Hence we examine both assumptions and use the scenario that leads to the most surface melt by 2100. Preliminary models results suggest that under the most aggressive climate forcing, surface melt from the Greenland Ice Sheet contributes ~1 m to sea level by the year 2100. This is a significant contribution and ignores dynamic effects. We also examined a lower bound, assuming negligible longwave radiation and albedo near the maximum observed for freshly fallen snow. Even under this scenarios preliminary estimates suggest tens of centimeters of sea level rise by 2100.

Large subglacial lakes in East Antarctica at the onset of fast-flowing ice streams.

PubMed

Bell, Robin E; Studinger, Michael; Shuman, Christopher A; Fahnestock, Mark A; Joughin, Ian

2007-02-22

Water plays a crucial role in ice-sheet stability and the onset of ice streams. Subglacial lake water moves between lakes and rapidly drains, causing catastrophic floods. The exact mechanisms by which subglacial lakes influence ice-sheet dynamics are unknown, however, and large subglacial lakes have not been closely associated with rapidly flowing ice streams. Here we use satellite imagery and ice-surface elevations to identify a region of subglacial lakes, similar in total area to Lake Vostok, at the onset region of the Recovery Glacier ice stream in East Antarctica and predicted by ice-sheet models. We define four lakes through extensive, flat, featureless regions of ice surface bounded by upstream troughs and downstream ridges. Using ice velocities determined using interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR), we find the onset of rapid flow (moving at 20 to 30 m yr(-1)) of the tributaries to the Recovery Glacier ice stream in a 280-km-wide segment at the downslope margins of these four subglacial lakes. We conclude that the subglacial lakes initiate and maintain rapid ice flow through either active modification of the basal thermal regime of the ice sheet by lake accretion or through scouring bedrock channels in periodic drainage events. We suggest that the role of subglacial lakes needs to be considered in ice-sheet mass balance assessments.

Insolation-driven 100 kyr glacial cycles and millennial climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abe-Ouchi, A.; Saito, F.; Kawamura, K.; Raymo, M. E.; Okuno, J.; Takahashi, K.; Blatter, H.

2013-12-01

The waxing and waning of Northern Hemisphere ice sheets over the past one million years is dominated by an approximately 100-kyr periodicity and a sawtooth pattern (gradual growth and fast termination). Milankovitch theory proposes that summer insolation at high northern latitudes drives the glacial cycles, and statistical tests demonstrated that the glacial cycles are indeed linked to eccentricity, obliquity and precession cycles. However, insolation alone cannot explain the strong 100 kyr cycle which presumably arises through internal climatic feedbacks. Prior work with conceptual models, for example, showed that glacial terminations are associated with the build-up of Northern Hemisphere 'excess ice', but the physical mechanisms of 100-kyr cycle at work remain unclear. Here, using comprehensive climate and ice sheet models, we show that the ~100-kyr periodicity is explained by insolation and internal feedback amongst the climate, ice sheet and lithosphere/asthenosphere system (reference). We found that equilibrium states of ice sheets exhibit hysteresis responses to summer insolation, and that the shape and position of the hysteresis loop play a key role in determining the periodicities of glacial cycles. The hysteresis loop of the North American ice sheet is such that, after its inception, the ice sheet mass balance remains mostly positive or neutral through several precession cycles whose amplitude decreases towards an eccentricity minimum. The larger the ice sheet grows and extends towards lower latitudes, the smaller is the insolation required to turn the mass balance to negative. Therefore, once the large ice sheet is established, only a moderate increase in insolation can trigger a negative mass balance, leading to a complete retreat within several thousand years, due to the delayed isostatic rebound. The effect of ocean circulation and millennial scale climate change are not playing the dominant role for determing the 100kyr cycle, but are effective for modifying the speed and geographical pattern of the waxing and waning of the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets and their melt water. (reference of the basic results: Abe-Ouchi et al, 2013, Insolation-driven 100,000 year glacial cycles and hysteresis of ice-sheet volume, Nature, 500, 190-193.)

Understanding ice sheet evolution to avoid massive sea level rise instead of experiencing it (Louis Agassiz Medal Lecture)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rignot, Eric

2017-04-01

With unabated climate warming, massive sea level rise from the melting of ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica looms at the horizon. This is unfortunately an experiment that we can afford to run only once. Satellite and airborne sensors have significantly helped reveal the magnitude of the mass balance of the ice sheets, where the changes take place, when they started, how they change with time and the nature of the physical processes controlling them. These observations have constrained the maturation of numerical modeling techniques for projecting changes in these ice sheets, including the coupling of ocean and ice sheet models, yet significant uncertainties remain to make these projections directly policy relevant and many challenges remain. I will review the state of balance of the ice sheets as we know it today and the fundamental processes that will drive fast ice sheet retreat and sea level change: ice-ocean interaction and iceberg calving. Ice-ocean interaction are dominated by the wind-forced intrusion of warm, salty, subsurface waters toward the ice sheet periphery to melt ice from below at rates orders of magnitude greater than at the surface. In Greenland, these rates are difficult to observe, but model simulations indicate rates of ice melt along vertical calving faces of meters per day, along with undercutting of the ice faces. Constraining the temperature of the ocean waters from high resolution models and observations, however, remains a significant challenge. I will describe the progress we have made in addressing one major issue which is the mapping of fjord bathymetry around Greenland to define the pathways for warm waters. In Antarctica, the rates of melt are measured from remote sensing data but averaged over long periods, so that we are dependent on in-situ observations to understand the interaction of ocean waters with ice within the sub-ice-shelf cavities. I will describe progress made in mapping the bathymetry of the ice shelves and how the results have impacted our understanding of these interactions. In terms of calving, there is a range of processes acting upon the glacier and ice shelf faces, proceeding from the surface and mostly from below, that are still not sufficiently well explored. I will discuss processes elucidated in Greenland (undercutting and rotation of ice blocks near floatation) and those that are not well known in Antarctica.

Glacier-surge mechanisms promoted by a hydro-thermodynamic feedback to summer melt

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dunse, T.; Schellenberger, T.; Hagen, J. O.; Kääb, A.; Schuler, T. V.; Reijmer, C. H.

2015-02-01

Mass loss from glaciers and ice sheets currently accounts for two-thirds of the observed global sea-level rise and has accelerated since the 1990s, coincident with strong atmospheric warming in the polar regions. Here we present continuous GPS measurements and satellite synthetic-aperture-radar-based velocity maps from Basin-3, the largest drainage basin of the Austfonna ice cap, Svalbard. Our observations demonstrate strong links between surface-melt and multiannual ice-flow acceleration. We identify a hydro-thermodynamic feedback that successively mobilizes stagnant ice regions, initially frozen to their bed, thereby facilitating fast basal motion over an expanding area. By autumn 2012, successive destabilization of the marine terminus escalated in a surge of Basin-3. The resulting iceberg discharge of 4.2±1.6 Gt a-1 over the period April 2012 to May 2013 triples the calving loss from the entire ice cap. With the seawater displacement by the terminus advance accounted for, the related sea-level rise contribution amounts to 7.2±2.6 Gt a-1. This rate matches the annual ice-mass loss from the entire Svalbard archipelago over the period 2003-2008, highlighting the importance of dynamic mass loss for glacier mass balance and sea-level rise. The active role of surface melt, i.e. external forcing, contrasts with previous views of glacier surges as purely internal dynamic instabilities. Given sustained climatic warming and rising significance of surface melt, we propose a potential impact of the hydro-thermodynamic feedback on the future stability of ice-sheet regions, namely at the presence of a cold-based marginal ice plug that restricts fast drainage of inland ice. The possibility of large-scale dynamic instabilities such as the partial disintegration of ice sheets is acknowledged but not quantified in global projections of sea-level rise.

The response of grounded ice to ocean temperature forcing in a coupled ice sheet-ice shelf-ocean cavity model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goldberg, D. N.; Little, C. M.; Sergienko, O. V.; Gnanadesikan, A.

2010-12-01

Ice shelves provide a pathway for the heat content of the ocean to influence continental ice sheets. Changes in the rate or location of basal melting can alter their geometry and effect changes in stress conditions at the grounding line, leading to a grounded ice response. Recent observations of ice streams and ice shelves in the Amundsen Sea sector of West Antarctica have been consistent with this story. On the other hand, ice dynamics in the grounding zone control flux into the shelf and thus ice shelf geometry, which has a strong influence on the circulation in the cavity beneath the shelf. Thus the coupling between the two systems, ocean and ice sheet-ice shelf, can be quite strong. We examine the response of the ice sheet-ice shelf-ocean cavity system to changes in ocean temperature using a recently developed coupled model. The coupled model consists a 3-D ocean model (GFDL's Generalized Ocean Layered Dynamics model, or GOLD) to a two-dimensional ice sheet-ice shelf model (Goldberg et al, 2009), and allows for changing cavity geometry and a migrating grounding line. Steady states of the coupled system are found even under considerable forcing. The ice shelf morphology and basal melt rate patterns of the steady states exhibit detailed structure, and furthermore seem to be unique and robust. The relationship between temperature forcing and area-averaged melt rate is influenced by the response of ice shelf morphology to thermal forcing, and is found to be sublinear in the range of forcing considered. However, results suggest that area-averaged melt rate is not the best predictor of overall system response, as grounding line stability depends on local aspects of the basal melt field. Goldberg, D N, D M Holland and C G Schoof, 2009. Grounding line movement and ice shelf buttressing in marine ice sheets, Journal of Geophysical Research-Earth Surfaces, 114, F04026.

An investigation of the astronomical theory of the ice ages using a simple climate-ice sheet model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pollard, D.

1978-01-01

The astronomical theory of the Quaternary ice ages is incorporated into a simple climate model for global weather; important features of the model include the albedo feedback, topography and dynamics of the ice sheets. For various parameterizations of the orbital elements, the model yields realistic assessments of the northern ice sheet. Lack of a land-sea heat capacity contrast represents one of the chief difficulties of the model.

Laurentide ice-sheet instability during the last deglaciation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ullman, David J.; Carlson, Anders E.; Anslow, Faron S.; Legrande, Allegra N.; Licciardi, Joseph M.

2015-07-01

Changes in the amount of summer incoming solar radiation (insolation) reaching the Northern Hemisphere are the underlying pacemaker of glacial cycles. However, not all rises in boreal summer insolation over the past 800,000 years resulted in deglaciation to present-day ice volumes, suggesting that there may be a climatic threshold for the disappearance of land-based ice. Here we assess the surface mass balance stability of the Laurentide ice sheet--the largest glacial ice mass in the Northern Hemisphere--during the last deglaciation (24,000 to 9,000 years ago). We run a surface energy balance model with climate data from simulations with a fully coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model for key time slices during the last deglaciation. We find that the surface mass balance of the Laurentide ice sheet was positive throughout much of the deglaciation, and suggest that dynamic discharge was mainly responsible for mass loss during this time. Total surface mass balance became negative only in the early Holocene, indicating the transition to a new state where ice loss occurred primarily by surface ablation. We conclude that the Laurentide ice sheet remained a viable ice sheet before the Holocene and began to fully deglaciate only once summer temperatures and radiative forcing over the ice sheet increased by 6-7 °C and 16-20 W m-2, respectively, relative to full glacial conditions.

Modeling the fracture of ice sheets on parallel computers.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Waisman, Haim; Bell, Robin; Keyes, David

2010-03-01

The objective of this project is to investigate the complex fracture of ice and understand its role within larger ice sheet simulations and global climate change. At the present time, ice fracture is not explicitly considered within ice sheet models due in part to large computational costs associated with the accurate modeling of this complex phenomena. However, fracture not only plays an extremely important role in regional behavior but also influences ice dynamics over much larger zones in ways that are currently not well understood. Dramatic illustrations of fracture-induced phenomena most notably include the recent collapse of ice shelves inmore » Antarctica (e.g. partial collapse of the Wilkins shelf in March of 2008 and the diminishing extent of the Larsen B shelf from 1998 to 2002). Other fracture examples include ice calving (fracture of icebergs) which is presently approximated in simplistic ways within ice sheet models, and the draining of supraglacial lakes through a complex network of cracks, a so called ice sheet plumbing system, that is believed to cause accelerated ice sheet flows due essentially to lubrication of the contact surface with the ground. These dramatic changes are emblematic of the ongoing change in the Earth's polar regions and highlight the important role of fracturing ice. To model ice fracture, a simulation capability will be designed centered around extended finite elements and solved by specialized multigrid methods on parallel computers. In addition, appropriate dynamic load balancing techniques will be employed to ensure an approximate equal amount of work for each processor.« less

Ice exposures and landscape evolution in the Martian mid-latitudes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dundas, C. M.; Bramson, A. M.; Ojha, L.; Wray, J. J.; Mellon, M. T.; Byrne, S.; McEwen, A. S.; Putzig, N. E.; Viola, D.; Sutton, S.

2017-12-01

The large-scale geographic distribution of Martian shallow ground ice is now relatively well-known, but the vertical structure of the ice is not as well understood. Here we report on erosional scarps in kilometer-scale pits near ±55-60 degrees latitude that expose cross-sections through ice-rich mantling deposits covering much of the mid-latitudes. HiRISE images of the scarps reveal ice-rich deposits (i.e., not regolith-pore-filling ice) that are >100 m thick and occur within 1 m of the top of the scarps. CRISM spectra confirm the presence of water ice through late summer, implying exposed ground ice rather than seasonal frost. SHARAD sounding radar data show some candidate reflectors similar to those inferred to be from the base of excess ice deposits elsewhere on Mars, but no internal structure is resolved. Ice-exposing impacts and thermokarst landforms convey information about excess ice abundance in the upper few meters, but not its deeper structure. The overall structure of the ice table is simple, with massive ice (sometimes layered) under a relatively thin lithic mantle, plus a boulder-rich interior lens in one scarp. The latter may be partly ice-cemented. The ice is commonly fractured. These observations demonstrate how deep ice sheets link with the shallow ice table, at least locally. The likely origin of the ice is accumulation of snow with some admixed dust during a different climate. This snow accumulation could be related to 370 ka changes observed at the poles [1] but some ice sheets may be tens of Myr old [2]. the origin of superposed boulder-sized rocks is puzzling; possible explanations include glacial flow, impact gardening, or some form of frost heave or cryoturbation. Repeat HiRISE observations demonstrate that the scarps are actively retreating, as boulders have fallen from one scarp and there are albedo changes elsewhere. This activity demonstrates that local sublimation is contributing to present-day Martian landscape evolution and is an important agent in the creation of kilometer-scale landforms in ice-rich regions. Scarps within these ice-rich deposits are attractive targets for future exploration and represent an accessible resource for future human missions. [1] Smith I. B. et al. (2016) Science 352, 1075-1078. [2] Viola D. et al. (2015) Icarus 248, 190-204.

Evolving Understanding of Antarctic Ice-Sheet Physics and Ambiguity in Probabilistic Sea-Level Projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kopp, Robert E.; DeConto, Robert M.; Bader, Daniel A.; Hay, Carling C.; Horton, Radley M.; Kulp, Scott; Oppenheimer, Michael; Pollard, David; Strauss, Benjamin H.

2017-12-01

Mechanisms such as ice-shelf hydrofracturing and ice-cliff collapse may rapidly increase discharge from marine-based ice sheets. Here, we link a probabilistic framework for sea-level projections to a small ensemble of Antarctic ice-sheet (AIS) simulations incorporating these physical processes to explore their influence on global-mean sea-level (GMSL) and relative sea-level (RSL). We compare the new projections to past results using expert assessment and structured expert elicitation about AIS changes. Under high greenhouse gas emissions (Representative Concentration Pathway [RCP] 8.5), median projected 21st century GMSL rise increases from 79 to 146 cm. Without protective measures, revised median RSL projections would by 2100 submerge land currently home to 153 million people, an increase of 44 million. The use of a physical model, rather than simple parameterizations assuming constant acceleration of ice loss, increases forcing sensitivity: overlap between the central 90% of simulations for 2100 for RCP 8.5 (93-243 cm) and RCP 2.6 (26-98 cm) is minimal. By 2300, the gap between median GMSL estimates for RCP 8.5 and RCP 2.6 reaches >10 m, with median RSL projections for RCP 8.5 jeopardizing land now occupied by 950 million people (versus 167 million for RCP 2.6). The minimal correlation between the contribution of AIS to GMSL by 2050 and that in 2100 and beyond implies current sea-level observations cannot exclude future extreme outcomes. The sensitivity of post-2050 projections to deeply uncertain physics highlights the need for robust decision and adaptive management frameworks.

Evolving Understanding of Antarctic Ice-Sheet Physics and Ambiguity in Probabilistic Sea-Level Projections

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kopp, Robert E.; DeConto, Robert M.; Bader, Daniel A.; Hay, Carling C.; Horton, Radley M.; Kulp, Scott; Oppenheimer, Michael; Pollard, David; Strauss, Benjamin

2017-01-01

Mechanisms such as ice-shelf hydrofracturing and ice-cliff collapse may rapidly increase discharge from marine-based ice sheets. Here, we link a probabilistic framework for sea-level projections to a small ensemble of Antarctic ice-sheet (AIS) simulations incorporating these physical processes to explore their influence on global-mean sea-level (GMSL) and relative sea-level (RSL). We compare the new projections to past results using expert assessment and structured expert elicitation about AIS changes. Under high greenhouse gas emissions (Representative Concentration Pathway [RCP] 8.5), median projected 21st century GMSL rise increases from 79 to 146 cm. Without protective measures, revised median RSL projections would by 2100 submerge land currently home to 153 million people, an increase of 44 million. The use of a physical model, rather than simple parameterizations assuming constant acceleration of ice loss, increases forcing sensitivity: overlap between the central 90% of simulations for 2100 for RCP 8.5 (93-243 cm) and RCP 2.6 (26-98 cm) is minimal. By 2300, the gap between median GMSL estimates for RCP 8.5 and RCP 2.6 reaches >10 m, with median RSL projections for RCP 8.5 jeopardizing land now occupied by 950 million people (versus 167 million for RCP 2.6). The minimal correlation between the contribution of AIS to GMSL by 2050 and that in 2100 and beyond implies current sea-level observations cannot exclude future extreme outcomes. The sensitivity of post-2050 projections to deeply uncertain physics highlights the need for robust decision and adaptive management frameworks.

Abrupt shift in the observed runoff from the southwestern Greenland ice sheet

PubMed Central

Ahlstrøm, Andreas P.; Petersen, Dorthe; Langen, Peter L.; Citterio, Michele; Box, Jason E.

2017-01-01

The recent decades of accelerating mass loss of the Greenland ice sheet have arisen from an increase in both surface meltwater runoff and ice flow discharge from tidewater glaciers. Despite the role of the Greenland ice sheet as the dominant individual cryospheric contributor to sea level rise in recent decades, no observational record of its mass loss spans the 30-year period needed to assess its climatological state. We present for the first time a 40-year (1975–2014) time series of observed meltwater discharge from a >6500-km2 catchment of the southwestern Greenland ice sheet. We find that an abrupt 80% increase in runoff occurring between the 1976–2002 and 2003–2014 periods is due to a shift in atmospheric circulation, with meridional exchange events occurring more frequently over Greenland, establishing the first observation-based connection between ice sheet runoff and climate change. PMID:29242827

The Ice Sheet Mass Balance Inter-comparison Exercise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shepherd, A.; Ivins, E. R.

2015-12-01

Fluctuations in the mass of ice stored in Antarctica and Greenland are of considerable societal importance. The Ice Sheet Mass Balance Inter-Comparison Exercise (IMBIE) is a joint-initiative of ESA and NASA aimed at producing a single estimate of the global sea level contribution to polar ice sheet losses. Within IMBIE, estimates of ice sheet mass balance are developed from a variety of satellite geodetic techniques using a common spatial and temporal reference frame and a common appreciation of the contributions due to external signals. The project brings together the laboratories and space agencies that have been instrumental in developing independent estimates of ice sheet mass balance to date. In its first phase, IMBIE involved 27 science teams, and delivered a first community assessment of ice sheet mass imbalance to replace 40 individual estimates. The project established that (i) there is good agreement between the three main satellite-based techniques for estimating ice sheet mass balance, (ii) combining satellite data sets leads to significant improvement in certainty, (iii) the polar ice sheets contributed 11 ± 4 mm to global sea levels between 1992 and 2012, and (iv) that combined ice losses from Antarctica and Greenland have increased over time, rising from 10% of the global trend in the early 1990's to 30% in the late 2000's. Demand for an updated assessment has grown, and there are now new satellite missions, new geophysical corrections, new techniques, and new teams producing data. The period of overlap between independent satellite techniques has increased from 5 to 12 years, and the full period of satellite data over which an assessment can be performed has increased from 19 to 40 years. It is also clear that multiple satellite techniques are required to confidently separate mass changes associated with snowfall and ice dynamical imbalance - information that is of critical importance for climate modelling. This presentation outlines the approach for the second phase of IMBIE, including the project organisation, the work programme and schedule, the main science goals, and its current status, and reviews the recent and historical contributions that the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets have made to global sea level rise.

Equilibrium sensitivities of the Greenland ice sheet inferred from the adjoint of the three- dimensional thermo-mechanical model SICOPOLIS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heimbach, P.; Bugnion, V.

2008-12-01

We present a new and original approach to understanding the sensitivity of the Greenland ice sheet to key model parameters and environmental conditions. At the heart of this approach is the use of an adjoint ice sheet model. MacAyeal (1992) introduced adjoints in the context of applying control theory to estimate basal sliding parameters (basal shear stress, basal friction) of an ice stream model which minimize a least-squares model vs. observation misfit. Since then, this method has become widespread to fit ice stream models to the increasing number and diversity of satellite observations, and to estimate uncertain model parameters. However, no attempt has been made to extend this method to comprehensive ice sheet models. Here, we present a first step toward moving beyond limiting the use of control theory to ice stream models. We have generated an adjoint of the three-dimensional thermo-mechanical ice sheet model SICOPOLIS of Greve (1997). The adjoint was generated using the automatic differentiation (AD) tool TAF. TAF generates exact source code representing the tangent linear and adjoint model of the parent model provided. Model sensitivities are given by the partial derivatives of a scalar-valued model diagnostic or "cost function" with respect to the controls, and can be efficiently calculated via the adjoint. An effort to generate an efficient adjoint with the newly developed open-source AD tool OpenAD is also under way. To gain insight into the adjoint solutions, we explore various cost functions, such as local and domain-integrated ice temperature, total ice volume or the velocity of ice at the margins of the ice sheet. Elements of our control space include initial cold ice temperatures, surface mass balance, as well as parameters such as appear in Glen's flow law, or in the surface degree-day or basal sliding parameterizations. Sensitivity maps provide a comprehensive view, and allow a quantification of where and to which variables the ice sheet model is most sensitive to. The model used in the present study includes simplifications in the model physics, parameterizations which rely on uncertain empirical constants, and is unable to capture fast ice streams. Nevertheless, as a proof-of-concept, this method can readily be extended to incorporate higher-order physics or parameterizations (or be applied to other models). It also opens the door to ice sheet state estimation: using the model's physics jointly with field and satellite observations to estimate a best estimate of the state of the ice sheets.

From the front

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Price, Stephen

The causes of recent dynamic thinning of Greenland's outlet glaciers have been debated. Realistic simulations suggest that changes at the marine fronts of these glaciers are to blame, implying that dynamic thinning will cease once the glaciers retreat to higher ground. For the last decade, many outlet glaciers in Greenland that terminate in the ocean have accelerated, thinned, and retreated. To explain these dynamic changes, two hypotheses have been discussed. Atmospheric warming has increased surface melting and may also have increased the amount of meltwater reaching the glacier bed, increasing lubrication at the base and hence the rate of glaciermore » sliding. Alternatively, a change in the delicate balance of forces where the glacier fronts meet the ocean could trigger the changes. Faezeh Nick and colleagues5 present ice-sheet modeling experiments that mimic the observations on Helheim glacier, East Greenland, and suggest that the dynamic behaviour of outlet glaciers follows from perturbations at their marine fronts. Greenland's ice sheet loses mass partly through surface melting and partly through fast flowing outlet glaciers that connect the vast plateau of inland ice with the ocean. Earlier ice sheet models have failed to reproduce the dynamic variability exhibited by ice sheets over time. It has therefore not been possible to distinguish with confidence between basal lubrication from surface meltwater and changes at the glaciers' marine fronts as causes for the observed changes on Greenland's outlet glaciers. But this distinction bears directly on future sea-level rise, the raison d'etre of much of modern-day glaciology: If the recent dynamic mass loss Greenland's outlet glaciers is linked to changing atmospheric temperatures, it may continue for as long as temperatures continue to increase. On the other hand, if the source of the dynamic mass loss is a perturbation at the ice-ocean boundary, these glaciers will lose contact with that perturbation after a finite amount of thinning and retreat. Therefore, the first hypothesis implies continued retreat of outlet glaciers into the foreseeable future, while the second does not -- provided the bedrock topography prohibits a connection between the retreating glacier and the ocean. Nick and coauthors test the physical mechanisms implied in each hypotbesis in an innovative ice-flow model, and use that model to try to match a time series of observations from Helheim glacier, one of Greenland's three largest outlet glaciers. Along with many observations, the simulations strongly support the contention that the recent retreat of Greenland's outlet glaciers is the result of changes at their marine fronts.Further, the simulations confirm the earlier hypotheses that bedrock topography largely controlled Helheim glacier's rapid acceleration and retreat in 2004 and 2005, and its deceleration and stabilization in 2006. Finally, the current work implies that if requirements of observational data (high-resolution bed topography) and computational resources (fine computational grid resolution) can be met, improved predictive capability for ice-sheet models is attainable. With respect to the concerns raised by the IPCC, this study signals progress.« less

Annual accumulation over the Greenland ice sheet interpolated from historical and newly compiled observation data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shen, Dayong; Liu, Yuling; Huang, Shengli

2012-01-01

The estimation of ice/snow accumulation is of great significance in quantifying the mass balance of ice sheets and variation in water resources. Improving the accuracy and reducing uncertainty has been a challenge for the estimation of annual accumulation over the Greenland ice sheet. In this study, we kriged and analyzed the spatial pattern of accumulation based on an observation data series including 315 points used in a recent research, plus 101 ice cores and snow pits and newly compiled 23 coastal weather station data. The estimated annual accumulation over the Greenland ice sheet is 31.2 g cm−2 yr−1, with a standard error of 0.9 g cm−2 yr−1. The main differences between the improved map developed in this study and the recently published accumulation maps are in the coastal areas, especially southeast and southwest regions. The analysis of accumulations versus elevation reveals the distribution patterns of accumulation over the Greenland ice sheet.

An Antarctic stratigraphic record of step-wise ice-sheet growth through the Eocene-Oligocene transition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Passchier, S.; Ciarletta, D. J.; Miriagos, T.; Bijl, P.; Bohaty, S. M.

2016-12-01

The Antarctic cryosphere plays a critical role in the ocean-atmosphere system, but its early evolution is still poorly known. With a near-field record from Prydz Bay, Antarctica, we conclude that Antarctic continental ice-sheet growth commenced with the EOT-1 "precursor" glaciation, during a time of Subantarctic surface ocean cooling and a decline in atmospheric pCO2. Prydz Bay lies downstream of a major East Antarctic ice-sheet drainage system and the Gamburtsev Mountains, a likely nucleation point for the first ice sheets. Its sedimentary records uniquely constrain the timing of ice-sheet advance onto the continental shelf. We investigate a detrital record extracted from three Ocean Drilling Program drill holes in Prydz Bay within a new depositional and chronological framework spanning the late Eocene to early Oligocene ( 36-33 Ma). The chemical index of alteration (CIA) and the S-index, calculated from the major element geochemistry of bulk samples, yield estimates of chemical weathering intensities and mean annual temperature (MAT) on the East Antarctic continent. We document evidence for late Eocene mountain glaciation along with transient warm events at 35.8-34.8 Ma. These data and our sedimentological analyses confirm the presence of ephemeral mountain glaciers on East Antarctica during the late Eocene between 35.9 and 34.4 Ma. Furthermore, we document the stepwise climate cooling of the Antarctic hinterland from 34.4 Ma as the ice sheet advanced towards the edges of the continent during EOT-1. The youngest part of our data set correlates to the time interval of the Oi-1 glaciation, when the ice-sheet in Prydz Bay extended to the outer shelf. Cooling and ice growth on Antarctica was spatially variable and ice sheets formed under declining pCO2. These results point to complex ice sheet - atmosphere - ocean - solid-earth feedbacks.

Representing grounding line migration in synchronous coupling between a marine ice sheet model and a z-coordinate ocean model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goldberg, D. N.; Snow, K.; Holland, P.; Jordan, J. R.; Campin, J.-M.; Heimbach, P.; Arthern, R.; Jenkins, A.

2018-05-01

Synchronous coupling is developed between an ice sheet model and a z-coordinate ocean model (the MITgcm). A previously-developed scheme to allow continuous vertical movement of the ice-ocean interface of a floating ice shelf ("vertical coupling") is built upon to allow continuous movement of the grounding line, or point of floatation of the ice sheet ("horizontal coupling"). Horizontal coupling is implemented through the maintenance of a thin layer of ocean ( ∼ 1 m) under grounded ice, which is inflated into the real ocean as the ice ungrounds. This is accomplished through a modification of the ocean model's nonlinear free surface evolution in a manner akin to a hydrological model in the presence of steep bathymetry. The coupled model is applied to a number of idealized geometries and shown to successfully represent ocean-forced marine ice sheet retreat while maintaining a continuous ocean circulation.

Sensing the bed-rock movement due to ice unloading from space using InSAR time-series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, W.; Amelung, F.; Dixon, T. H.; Wdowinski, S.

2014-12-01

Ice-sheets in the Arctic region are retreating rapidly since late 1990s. Typical ice loss rates are 0.5 - 1 m/yr at the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, ~ 1 m/yr at the Icelandic ice sheets, and several meters per year at the edge of Greenland ice sheet. Such load decreasing causes measurable (several millimeter per year) deformation of the Earth's crust from Synthetic Aperture Radar Interferometry (InSAR). Using small baseline time-series analysis, this signal is retrieved after noises such as orbit error, atmospheric delay and DEM error being removed. We present results from Vatnajokull ice cap, Petermann glacier and Barnes ice cap using ERS, Envisat and TerraSAR-X data. Up to 2 cm/yr relative radar line-of-sight displacement is detected. The pattern of deformation matches the shape of ice sheet very well. The result in Iceland was used to develop a new model for the ice mass balance estimation from 1995 to 2010. Other applications of this kind of technique include validation of ICESat or GRACE based ice sheet model, Earth's rheology (Young's modulus, viscosity and so on). Moreover, we find a narrow (~ 1km) uplift zone close to the periglacial area of Petermann glacier which may due to a special rheology under the ice stream.

Coupled energy-balance/ice-sheet model simulations of the glacial cycle: A possible connection between terminations and terrigenous dust

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peltier, W. Richard; Marshall, Shawn

1995-07-01

We apply a coupled energy-balance/ice-sheet climate model in an investigation of northern hemisphere ice-sheet advance and retreat over the last glacial cycle. When driven only by orbital insolation variations, the model predicts ice-sheet advances over the continents of North America and Eurasia that are in good agreement with geological reconstructions in terms of the timescale of advance and the spatial positioning of the main ice masses. The orbital forcing alone, however, is unable to induce the observed rapid ice-sheet retreat, and we conclude that additional climatic feedbacks not explicitly included in the basic model must be acting. In the analyses presented here we have parameterized a number of potentially important effects in order to test their relative influence on the process of glacial termination. These include marine instability, thermohaline circulation effects, carbon dioxide variations, and snow albedo changes caused by dust loading during periods of high atmospheric aerosol concentration. For the purpose of these analyses the temporal changes in the latter two variables were inferred from ice core records. Of these various influences, our analyses suggest that the albedo variations in the ice-sheet ablation zone caused by dust loading may represent an extremely important ablation mechanism. Using our parameterization of "dirty" snow in the ablation zone we find glacial retreat to be strongly accelerated, such that complete collapse of the otherwise stable Laurentide ice sheet ensues. The last glacial maximum configurations of the Laurentide and Fennoscandian complexes are also brought into much closer accord with the ICE-3G reconstruction of Tushingham and Peltier (1991,1992) and the ICE-4G reconstruction of Peltier (1994) when this effect is reasonably introduced.

Effect of subglacial volcanism on changes in the West Antarctic Ice Sheet

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Behrendt, John C.

1993-01-01

Rapid changes in the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) may affect future global sea-level changes. Alley and Whillans note that 'the water responsible for separating the glacier from its bed is produced by frictional dissipation and geothermal heat,' but assume that changes in geothermal flux would ordinarily be expected to have slower effects than glaciological parameters. I suggest that episodic subglacial volcanism and geothermal heating may have significantly greater effects on the WAIS than is generally appreciated. The WAIS flows through the active, largely asiesmic West Antarctic rift system (WS), which defines the sub-sea-level bed of the glacier. Various lines of evidence summarized in Behrendt et al. (1991) indicate high heat flow and shallow asthenosphere beneath the extended, weak lithosphere underlying the WS and the WAIS. Behrendt and Cooper suggest a possible synergistic relation between Cenozoic tectonism, episodic mountain uplift and volcanism in the West Antarctic rift system, and the waxing and waning of the Antarctic ice sheet beginning about earliest Oligocene time. A few active volcanoes and late-Cenozoic volcanic rocks are exposed throughout the WS along both flanks, and geophysical data suggest their presence beneath the WAIS. No part of the rift system can be considered inactive. I propose that subglacial volcanic eruptions and ice flow across areas of locally (episodically?) high heat flow--including volcanically active areas--should be considered possibly to have a forcing effect on the thermal regime resulting in increased melting at the base of the ice streams.

Near-field sea-level variability in northwest Europe and ice sheet stability during the last interglacial

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Long, A. J.; Barlow, N. L. M.; Busschers, F. S.; Cohen, K. M.; Gehrels, W. R.; Wake, L. M.

2015-10-01

Global sea level during the Last Interglacial (LIG, Marine Isotope Sub-stage 5e) peaked between c. 5.5 and 9 m above present, implying significant melt from Greenland and Antarctica. Relative sea level (RSL) observations from several far- and intermediate-field sites suggest abrupt fluctuations or jumps in RSL during the LIG highstand that require one or more episodes of ice-sheet collapse and regrowth. Such events should be manifest as unique sea-level fingerprints, recorded in far-, intermediate- and near-field sites depending on the source(s) of ice-mass change involved. To date, though, no coherent evidence of such fluctuations has been reported from near-field RSL studies in northwest Europe. This is an important problem because RSL fluctuations during the LIG are portrayed as warning signs for how polar ice sheets may behave in a future, warmer than present, world. Here we review the evidence for RSL change during the LIG using stratigraphic data from the best resolved highstand records that exist in the near-field of northwest Europe, from a range of settings that include lagoonal, shallow marine, tidal flat, salt marsh and brackish-water fluviatile environments. Consideration of previously published stratigraphic records from two sites in the Eemian coastal-marine embayment that existed in the central Netherlands, yields no clear indications for abrupt RSL change during the attainment of the near-field highstand. Nor do we find any such indications common to other records from countries bordering the North Sea, the Baltic Sea and the White Sea. Two modelling experiments that explore the global signal of hypothetical sea-level oscillations caused by partial collapse and regrowth of either the Greenland or Antarctic LIG ice-sheet, show that the North Sea region is relatively insensitive to mass changes sourced from Greenland but should clearly register events with an Antarctic origin, especially those that occur late in the LIG. The lack of evidence for abrupt sea-level fluctuations at this time in northwest Europe concurs with a lack of clear near-field evidence for ice sheet collapse.

Fun at Antarctic grounding lines: Ice-shelf channels and sediment transport

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Drews, Reinhard; Mayer, Christoph; Eisen, Olaf; Helm, Veit; Ehlers, Todd A.; Pattyn, Frank; Berger, Sophie; Favier, Lionel; Hewitt, Ian H.; Ng, Felix; Fürst, Johannes J.; Gillet-Chaulet, Fabien; Bergeot, Nicolas; Matsuoka, Kenichi

2017-04-01

Meltwater beneath the polar ice sheets drains, in part, through subglacial conduits. Landforms created by such drainages are abundant in areas formerly covered by ice sheets during the last glacial maximum. However, observations of subglacial conduit dynamics under a contemporary ice sheet are lacking. We present results from ice-penetrating radar to infer the existence of subglacial conduits upstream of the grounding line of Roi Baudouin Ice Shelf, Antarctica. The conduits are aligned with ice-shelf channels, and underlain by esker ridges formed from sediment deposition due to reduced water outflow speed near the grounding line. In turn, the eskers modify local ice flow to initiate the bottom topography of the ice-shelf channels, and create small surface ridges extending onto the shelf. Relict features on the shelf are interpreted to indicate a history of these interactions and variability of past subglacial drainages. Because ice-shelf channels are loci where intense melting occurs to thin an ice shelf, these findings expose a novel link between subglacial drainage, sedimentation, and ice-shelf stability. To investigate the role of sediment transport beneath ice sheets further, we model the sheet-shelf system of the Ekstömisen catchment, Antarctica. A 3D finite element model (Elmer/ICE) is used to solve the transients full Stokes equation for isotropic, isothermal ice with a dynamic grounding line. We initialize the model with surface topography from the TanDEM-X satellites and by inverting simultaneously for ice viscosity and basal drag using present-day surface velocities. Results produce a flow field which is consitent with sattelite and on-site observations. Solving the age-depth relationship allows comparison with radar isochrones from airborne data, and gives information about the atmospheric/dynamic history of this sector. The flow field will eventually be used to identify potential sediment sources and sinks which we compare with more than 400 km of seismic profiles collected over the floating ice shelves and the grounded ice sheet.

Deciphering the evolution of the last Eurasian ice sheets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hughes, Anna; Gyllencreutz, Richard; Mangerud, Jan; Svendsen, John Inge

2016-04-01

Glacial geologists need ice sheet-scale chronological reconstructions of former ice extent to set individual records in a wider context and compare interpretations of ice sheet response to records of past environmental changes. Ice sheet modellers require empirical reconstructions on size and volume of past ice sheets that are fully documented, specified in time and include uncertainty estimates for model validation or constraints. Motivated by these demands, in 2005 we started a project (Database of the Eurasian Deglaciation, DATED) to compile and archive all published dates relevant to constraining the build-up and retreat of the last Eurasian ice sheets, including the British-Irish, Scandinavian and Svalbard-Barents-Kara Seas ice sheets (BIIS, SIS and SBKIS respectively). Over 5000 dates were assessed for reliability and used together with published ice-sheet margin positions to reconstruct time-slice maps of the ice sheets' extent, with uncertainty bounds, every 1000 years between 25-10 kyr ago and at four additional periods back to 40 kyr ago. Ten years after the idea for a database was conceived, the first version of results (DATED-1) has now been released (Hughes et al. 2016). We observe that: i) both the BIIS and SBKIS achieve maximum extent, and commence retreat earlier than the larger SIS; ii) the eastern terrestrial margin of the SIS reached its maximum extent up to 7000 years later than the westernmost marine margin; iii) the combined maximum ice volume (~24 m sea-level equivalent) was reached c. 21 ka; iv) large uncertainties exist; predominantly across marine sectors (e.g. the timing of coalescence and separation of the SIS and BKIS) but also in well-studied areas due to conflicting yet equally robust data. In just three years since the DATED-1 census (1 January 2013), the volume of new information (from both dates and mapped glacial geomorphology) has grown significantly (~1000 new dates). Here, we present the DATED-1 results in the context of the climatic changes of the last glacial, discuss the implications of emerging post-census data, and describe plans for the next version of the database, DATED-2. Hughes, A. L. C., Gyllencreutz, R., Lohne, Ø. S., Mangerud, J., Svendsen, J. I. 2016: The last Eurasian ice sheets - a chronological database and time-slice reconstruction, DATED-1. Boreas, 45, 1-45. 10.1111/bor.12142

Comparing a thermo-mechanical Weichselian ice sheet reconstruction to GIA driven reconstructions: aspects of earth response and ice configuration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmidt, P.; Lund, B.; Näslund, J.-O.

2013-12-01

In this study we compare a recent reconstruction of the Weichselian ice-sheet as simulated by the University of Main ice-sheet model (UMISM) to two reconstructions commonly used in glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) modeling: ICE-5G and ANU (also known as RSES). The UMISM reconstruction is carried out on a regional scale based on thermo-mechanical modelling whereas ANU and ICE-5G are global models based on the sea-level equation. The Weichselian ice-sheet in the three models are compared directly in terms of ice volume, extent and thickness, as well as in terms of predicted glacial isostatic adjustment in Fennoscandia. The three reconstructions display significant differences. UMISM and ANU includes phases of pronounced advance and retreat prior to the last glacial maximum (LGM), whereas the thickness and areal extent of the ICE-5G ice-sheet is more or less constant up until LGM. The final retreat of the ice-sheet initiates at earliest time in ICE-5G and latest in UMISM, while ice free conditions are reached earliest in UMISM and latest in ICE-5G. The post-LGM deglaciation style also differs notably between the ice models. While the UMISM simulation includes two temporary halts in the deglaciation, the later during the Younger Dryas, ANU only includes a decreased deglaciation rate during Younger Dryas and ICE-5G retreats at a relatively constant pace after an initial slow phase. Moreover, ANU and ICE-5G melt relatively uniformly over the entire ice-sheet in contrast to UMISM which melts preferentially from the edges. We find that all three reconstructions fit the present day uplift rates over Fennoscandia and the observed relative sea-level curve along the Ångerman river equally well, albeit with different optimal earth model parameters. Given identical earth models, ICE-5G predicts the fastest present day uplift rates and ANU the slowest, ANU also prefers the thinnest lithosphere. Moreover, only for ANU can a unique best fit model be determined. For UMISM and ICE-5G there is a range of earth models that can reproduce the present day uplift rates equally well. This is understood from the higher present day uplift rates predicted by ICE-5G and UMISM, which results in a bifurcation in the best fit mantle viscosity. Comparison of the uplift histories predicted by the ice-sheets indicate that inclusion of relative sea-level data in the data fit can reduce the observed ambiguity. We study the areal distributions of present day residual surface velocities in Fennoscandia and show that all three reconstructions generally over-predict velocities in southwestern Fennoscandia and that there are large differences in the fit to the observational data in Finland and northernmost Sweden and Norway. These difference may provide input to further enhancements of the ice-sheet reconstructions.

Palaeoglaciology of the Alexander Island ice cap, western Antarctic Peninsula, reconstructed from marine geophysical and core data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Graham, Alastair G. C.; Smith, James A.

2012-03-01

The glacial history of the continental shelf northwest of Alexander Island is not well known, due mainly to a lack of targeted marine data on Antarctica's palaeo-ice sheets in their inter-ice-stream areas. Recently it has been argued that the region was ice-free at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and thus a potential site for glacial refugia. In this paper, multibeam swath bathymetry, sub-bottom profiles and sediment cores are used to map the Alexander Island sector of the Antarctic Peninsula margin, in order to reconstruct the shelf's palaeoglaciology. Sea-floor bedforms provide evidence that an independent ice cap persisted on Alexander Island through the LGM and deglaciation. We show that this ice cap drained via two major, previously-undescribed tidewater outlets (Rothschild and Charcot Glaciers) sourced from an ice dome centred over the west of the island and near-shore areas. The glaciers grounded along deep, fjord-like cross-shelf troughs to within at least ˜10-20 km of the shelf edge, and probably reached the shelf break. Only one small outer-shelf zone appears to have remained free of ice throughout an otherwise extensive LGM. During retreat, grounding-line geomorphology indicates periodic stabilisation of Charcot Glacier on the mid-shelf after 13,500 cal yrs BP, while Rothschild Glacier retreated across its mid-shelf by 14,450 cal yrs BP. The timing of these events is in phase with retreat in nearby Marguerite Trough, and we take this as evidence of a common history and forcing with the Antarctic Peninsula Ice Sheet. The fine details of ice flow documented by our new reconstruction highlight the importance of capturing complex ice flow patterns in models (e.g. in inter-stream areas), for understanding how region-specific parts of Antarctica may change in the future. Moreover, the reconstruction shows that glacial refugia, if present, cannot have been extensive on the Alexander Island shelf at the LGM as indicated by previous biological studies; instead, we argue that any ice-free refugia were probably restricted to isolated outer-shelf pockets, that opened, closed, or were maintained through diachronous ice-sheet advance and retreat.

Evaluation of three methods of different levels of complexity to represent the interactions between the Greenland ice sheet and the atmosphere at the century time scale.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Le clec'h, Sébastien; Fettweis, Xavier; Quiquet, Aurelien; Dumas, Christophe; Kageyama, Masa; Charbit, Sylvie; Ritz, Catherine

2017-04-01

Based on numerous studies showing implications of polar ice sheets on the climate system, the climate community recommended the development of methods to account for feedbacks between polar ice sheets and the other climate components. In this study we used three methods of different levels of complexity to represent the interactions between a Greenland ice sheet model (GRISLI) and a regional atmospheric model (MAR) under the RCP8.5 scenario. The simplest method, i.e. uncoupled, does not account for interactions between both models. In this method MAR computes varying atmospheric conditions using the same present-day observed Greenland ice sheet topography and extent. The outputs are then used to force GRISLI. The second method is a one-way coupling method in which the MAR outputs are corrected to account for topography changes before their transfer to GRISLI. The third method is a fully coupled method allowing the full representation of interactions between MAR and GRISLI. In this case, the ice sheet topography and its extent as seen by the atmospheric model is updated for each ice sheet model time step. The three methods are evaluated regarding the Greenland ice sheet response from 2000 to 2150. As expected, the uncoupled method shows a coastal thinning of the ice sheet due to a decreasing surface mass balance for coastal regions related to increased mean surface temperature. The one-way coupling and the full coupling methods tend to amplify the surface mass balance due to surface elevation feedback. The uncoupled method tends to underestimate the Greenland ice sheet volume reduction compared to both coupling methods over 150 years. This underestimation is of the same order of magnitude of the ice loss from the Greenland peripheral glaciers at the end of the 21st century. As for the uncoupled method, the thinning of the ice sheet occurs in coastal regions for both coupling methods. However compared to the one-way coupling method, the fully coupled method tends to increase the spatial variability of the surface mass balance changes through time. Our results also indicate that differences between the two coupling methods increase with time, which suggests that the choice of the method should depend on the timescale considered. Beyond century scale projections the fully coupled method is necessary in order to avoid underestimation of the ice sheet volume reduction, whilst the one-way method seems to be sufficient to represent the interactions between the atmosphere and the GrIS for projections by the end of the century.

Holocene lowering of the Laurentide ice sheet affects North Atlantic gyre circulation and climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ivanovic, R. F.; Gregoire, L. J.; Maycock, A.; Valdes, P. J.

2017-12-01

The Laurentide ice sheet, which covered Canada during glacial periods, had a major influence on atmospheric circulation and surface climate, but its role in climate during the early Holocene (9-7 ka), when it was thinner and confined around Hudson Bay, is unclear. It has been suggested that the demise of the ice sheet played a role in the 8.2 ka event (an abrupt 1-3 °C Northern Hemisphere cooling lasting 160 years) through the influence of changing topography on atmospheric circulation. To test this hypothesis, and to investigate the broader implications of changing ice sheet topography for climate, we analyse a set of equilibrium climate simulations with ice sheet topographies taken at 500 year intervals from 9.5 ka to 8.0 ka. Between 9.5 and 8.0 ka, our simulations show a 2 °C cooling south of Iceland and a 1 °C warming between 40-50° N in the North Atlantic. These surface temperature changes are associated with a weakening of the subtropical and subpolar gyres caused by a decreasing wind stress curl over the mid-North Atlantic as the ice sheet lowers. The climate response is strongest during the period of peak ice volume change (9.5 ka - 8.5 ka), but becomes negligible after 8.5 ka. The climatic effects of the Laurentide ice sheet lowering are restricted to the North Atlantic sector. Thus, topographic forcing did not play a significant role in the 8.2 ka event and had only a small effect on Holocene climate change compared to the effects of changes in greenhouse gases, insolation and ice sheet meltwater.

Holocene lowering of the Laurentide ice sheet affects North Atlantic gyre circulation and climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gregoire, Lauren J.; Ivanovic, Ruza F.; Maycock, Amanda C.; Valdes, Paul J.; Stevenson, Samantha

2018-02-01

The Laurentide ice sheet, which covered Canada during glacial periods, had a major influence on atmospheric circulation and surface climate, but its role in climate during the early Holocene (9-7 ka), when it was thinner and confined around Hudson Bay, is unclear. It has been suggested that the demise of the ice sheet played a role in the 8.2 ka event (an abrupt 1-3 °C Northern Hemisphere cooling lasting 160 years) through the influence of changing topography on atmospheric circulation. To test this hypothesis, and to investigate the broader implications of changing ice sheet topography for climate, we analyse a set of equilibrium climate simulations with ice sheet topographies taken at 500 year intervals from 9.5 to 8.0 ka. Between 9.5 and 8.0 ka, our simulations show a 2 °C cooling south of Iceland and a 1 °C warming between 40° and 50°N in the North Atlantic. These surface temperature changes are associated with a weakening of the subtropical and subpolar gyres caused by a decreasing wind stress curl over the mid-North Atlantic as the ice sheet lowers. The climate response is strongest during the period of peak ice volume change (9.5-8.5 ka), but becomes negligible after 8.5 ka. The climatic effects of the Laurentide ice sheet lowering during the Holocene are restricted to the North Atlantic sector. Thus, topographic forcing is unlikely to have played a major role in the 8.2 ka event and had only a small effect on Holocene climate change compared to the effects of changes in greenhouse gases, insolation and ice sheet meltwater.

The sea-level fingerprints of ice-sheet collapse during interglacial periods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hay, Carling; Mitrovica, Jerry X.; Gomez, Natalya; Creveling, Jessica R.; Austermann, Jacqueline; E. Kopp, Robert

2014-03-01

Studies of sea level during previous interglacials provide insight into the stability of polar ice sheets in the face of global climate change. Commonly, these studies correct ancient sea-level highstands for the contaminating effect of isostatic adjustment associated with past ice age cycles, and interpret the residuals as being equivalent to the peak eustatic sea level associated with excess melting, relative to present day, of ancient polar ice sheets. However, the collapse of polar ice sheets produces a distinct geometry, or fingerprint, of sea-level change, which must be accounted for to accurately infer peak eustatic sea level from site-specific residual highstands. To explore this issue, we compute fingerprints associated with the collapse of the Greenland Ice Sheet, West Antarctic Ice Sheet, and marine sectors of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet in order to isolate regions that would have been subject to greater-than-eustatic sea-level change for all three cases. These fingerprints are more robust than those associated with modern melting events, when applied to infer eustatic sea level, because: (1) a significant collapse of polar ice sheets reduces the sensitivity of the computed fingerprints to uncertainties in the geometry of the melt regions; and (2) the sea-level signal associated with the collapse will dominate the signal from steric effects. We evaluate these fingerprints at a suite of sites where sea-level records from interglacial marine isotopes stages (MIS) 5e and 11 have been obtained. Using these results, we demonstrate that previously discrepant estimates of peak eustatic sea level during MIS5e based on sea-level markers in Australia and the Seychelles are brought into closer accord.

Reconstruction of Jakobshavn Isbrae's calving dynamics from 1985 to 2017 and sensitivity to future ocean forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bondzio, J. H.; Morlighem, M.; Seroussi, H. L.

2017-12-01

Oceanic forcing is likely to have triggered the breakup of Jakobshavn Isbræ's floating ice tongue in the late 1990s, which led to ongoing dynamic changes such as widespread flow acceleration and mass loss. Our understanding of the link between ice dynamics, oceanic forcing, and calving is limited, yet crucial for prognostic simulations of Jakobshavn Isbræ. Here, we first reconstruct Jakobshavn's calving dynamics from 1985 to 2017, by relying on the model from Bondzio et al. 2017, but with a freely evolving ice front. We test different calving rate parameterizations implemented in the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM) and determine the best law by comparing the modeled retreat to observations. We then identify the controls on calving rate and ice front retreat by varying the submarine melting rate and frontal melt rates as a function of subglacial water discharge and ocean thermal forcing. This sensitivity analysis is an important step toward performing prognostic simulations of JI and provides pathways for future data acquisition.

Retreat of the Southwest Labrador Sector of the Laurentide Ice Sheet During the Last Termination

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lowell, T. V.; Kelly, M. A.; Fisher, T. G.; Barnett, P. J.; Howley, J. A.; Zimmerman, S. R. H.

2016-12-01

Large ice sheets are suspected to have played a major role in forcing the transitions from glacial to interglacial conditions, known as terminations. To improve the understanding of the role of the Laurentide Ice Sheet in the last termination, we present a chronology of ice sheet recession from just subsequent to end of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) to the early Holocene. We focus on the retreat of the southwest Labrador Sector of the ice sheet in northern Minnesota and adjacent Ontario. Multiple moraines in this region mark an overall pattern of ice recession interrupted by stillstands and/or minor readvances. Radiocarbon and 10Be ages from 50 sites along this 400 km-long transect indicate that the oldest moraine complex, the Vermillion moraine, formed at 17.0 ka. Subsequently, the ice margin retreated with minor standstills until the Dog Lake moraine was deposited between 12.7 and 12.3 ka. Recession from the Dog Lake moraine began by 12.3 ka the ice margin receded 150 km to the north-northeast by 10.7 ka. In general, the radiocarbon and 10Be ages define a pattern of near-continuous ice sheet retreat. Deposition of the Vermillion and Dog Lake moraines occurred at the beginning of Heinrich stadials 1 ( 17.5-14.5 ka) and 0 ( 12.9-11.7 ka), respectively, but ice recession occurred throughout the remainder of these stadials. This pattern is different from climate conditions registered by Greenland ice cores which show cold conditions from the end of the LGM until the Bølling warming at 14.5 ka, and throughout the Younger Dryas ( 12.9-11.7 ka). We suggest that the pattern of ice sheet recession is more similar to mountain glaciers in the southern mid-latitudes and tropics, and that Heinrich stadials may have been characterized by warming at least in the summertime that influenced near global ice recession.

Englacial layer mapping correlation and consistency techniques: an example from airborne ice penetrating radar profiles in West Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sudunagunta, V.; Ballal, S.; Albach, R.; Muldoon, G.; Quartini, E.; Cavitte, M. G.; Young, D. A.; Blankenship, D. D.

2016-12-01

Ice sheets are important considerations in projections of sea level rise and studies of climate history. Satellite imagery, ice-penetrating radar, and ground penetrating radar are commonly used to understand the dynamics and health of ice sheets. We focus on how to accurately interpret ice-penetrating radar data by tracing isochrones dated by comparison to deep ice cores so that an extensive knowledge of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet's internal stratigraphy is obtained. The radar data shows englacial reflectors and isochrones are interpreted englacial reflectors. We analyze these features and attempt to understand their possible origins. Accurate interpretation of radar data is crucial because the data will be used to evaluate ice flow evolution and boundary conditions. It can also be used to validate simulated ice sheet models. However to do so, isochrones must be traced and connected correctly. Our approach accomplishes this and has the potential to be applied to other ice sheets on Earth and in extraterrestrial systems. We discuss the methodology utilized by our team to interpret data from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet collected using airborne ice-penetrating radar. The seismic reflection interpretation environment Landmark DecisionSpace was adapted to display and interpret the radar returns. When tracing isochrones, a group approach is used to maximize accuracy. In gridded surveys, loops are used to continuously check isochrones, in addition to retracing of isochrones by different group members to check for errors in interpretation. As loops are made, areas of possible scientific merit, such as isochrone drawdowns or Raymond bumps, are documented. A key aspect of this approach is the ability to work in a shared environment with a collaborative database like DecisionSpace. We will explore how we identified these features, their root causes, and subsequent implications for understanding ice sheet dynamics.

Formation of a wave on an ice-sheet above the dipole, moving in a fluid

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Il'ichev, A. T.; Savin, A. A.; Savin, A. S.

2012-05-01

Theory of wave motions of a fluid with an ice-sheet was developed due to the necessity of solving of a number of problems of marine and land physics. The main attention in these investigations was focused on propagation and interaction of free waves, and also on appearance of waves under action of different loadings on the ice-sheet. From the other side, the problems dealing with waves on the fluid surface, free from the ice due to motion in the mass of the fluid of rigid bodies, has the known solutions. In this connection, it seems natural to disserminate the formulation and methods of such problems to the case of the fluid with the ice-sheet. In the present note we describe the character of formation of waves from the singularity, localized in the fluid of infinite depth beneath the ice-sheet. We use the example of the dipole, which models a cylinder in the infinite mass of the fluid. The character of the formation does not depend on the type of singularity. The ice-sheet is considered as a thin elastic plate of a constant width, floating on the water surface.

Dynamic behaviour of the East Antarctic ice sheet during Pliocene warmth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cook, Carys P.; van de Flierdt, Tina; Williams, Trevor; Hemming, Sidney R.; Iwai, Masao; Kobayashi, Munemasa; Jimenez-Espejo, Francisco J.; Escutia, Carlota; González, Jhon Jairo; Khim, Boo-Keun; McKay, Robert M.; Passchier, Sandra; Bohaty, Steven M.; Riesselman, Christina R.; Tauxe, Lisa; Sugisaki, Saiko; Galindo, Alberto Lopez; Patterson, Molly O.; Sangiorgi, Francesca; Pierce, Elizabeth L.; Brinkhuis, Henk; Klaus, Adam; Fehr, Annick; Bendle, James A. P.; Bijl, Peter K.; Carr, Stephanie A.; Dunbar, Robert B.; Flores, José Abel; Hayden, Travis G.; Katsuki, Kota; Kong, Gee Soo; Nakai, Mutsumi; Olney, Matthew P.; Pekar, Stephen F.; Pross, Jörg; Röhl, Ursula; Sakai, Toyosaburo; Shrivastava, Prakash K.; Stickley, Catherine E.; Tuo, Shouting; Welsh, Kevin; Yamane, Masako

2013-09-01

Warm intervals within the Pliocene epoch (5.33-2.58 million years ago) were characterized by global temperatures comparable to those predicted for the end of this century and atmospheric CO2 concentrations similar to today. Estimates for global sea level highstands during these times imply possible retreat of the East Antarctic ice sheet, but ice-proximal evidence from the Antarctic margin is scarce. Here we present new data from Pliocene marine sediments recovered offshore of Adélie Land, East Antarctica, that reveal dynamic behaviour of the East Antarctic ice sheet in the vicinity of the low-lying Wilkes Subglacial Basin during times of past climatic warmth. Sedimentary sequences deposited between 5.3 and 3.3 million years ago indicate increases in Southern Ocean surface water productivity, associated with elevated circum-Antarctic temperatures. The geochemical provenance of detrital material deposited during these warm intervals suggests active erosion of continental bedrock from within the Wilkes Subglacial Basin, an area today buried beneath the East Antarctic ice sheet. We interpret this erosion to be associated with retreat of the ice sheet margin several hundreds of kilometres inland and conclude that the East Antarctic ice sheet was sensitive to climatic warmth during the Pliocene.

Bacteria beneath the West Antarctic ice sheet.

PubMed

Lanoil, Brian; Skidmore, Mark; Priscu, John C; Han, Sukkyun; Foo, Wilson; Vogel, Stefan W; Tulaczyk, Slawek; Engelhardt, Hermann

2009-03-01

Subglacial environments, particularly those that lie beneath polar ice sheets, are beginning to be recognized as an important part of Earth's biosphere. However, except for indirect indications of microbial assemblages in subglacial Lake Vostok, Antarctica, no sub-ice sheet environments have been shown to support microbial ecosystems. Here we report 16S rRNA gene and isolate diversity in sediments collected from beneath the Kamb Ice Stream, West Antarctic Ice Sheet and stored for 15 months at 4 degrees C. This is the first report of microbes in samples from the sediment environment beneath the Antarctic Ice Sheet. The cells were abundant ( approximately 10(7) cells g(-1)) but displayed low diversity (only five phylotypes), likely as a result of enrichment during storage. Isolates were cold tolerant and the 16S rRNA gene diversity was a simplified version of that found in subglacial alpine and Arctic sediments and water. Although in situ cell abundance and the extent of wet sediments beneath the Antarctic ice sheet can only be roughly extrapolated on the basis of this sample, it is clear that the subglacial ecosystem contains a significant and previously unrecognized pool of microbial cells and associated organic carbon that could potentially have significant implications for global geochemical processes.

Antarctic Circumpolar Current Dynamics and Their Relation to Antarctic Ice Sheet and Perennial Sea-Ice Variability in the Central Drake Passage During the Last Climate Cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuhn, G.; Wu, S.; Hass, H. C.; Klages, J. P.; Zheng, X.; Arz, H. W.; Esper, O.; Hillenbrand, C. D.; Lange, C.; Lamy, F.; Lohmann, G.; Müller, J.; McCave, I. N. N.; Nürnberg, D.; Roberts, J.; Tiedemann, R.; Timmermann, A.; Titschack, J.; Zhang, X.

2017-12-01

The evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet during the last climate cycle and the interrelation to global atmospheric and ocean circulation remains controversial and plays an important role for our understanding of ice sheet response to modern global warming. The timing and sequence of deglacial warming is relevant for understanding the variability and sensitivity of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to climatic changes, and the continuing rise of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. The Antarctic Ice Sheet is a pivotal component of the global water budget. Freshwater fluxes from the ice sheet may affect the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC), which is strongly impacted by the westerly wind belt in the Southern Hemisphere (SHWW) and constricted to its narrowest extent in the Drake Passage. The flow of ACC water masses through Drake Passage is, therefore, crucial for advancing our understanding of the Southern Ocean's role in global meridional overturning circulation and global climate change. In order to address orbital and millennial-scale variability of the Antarctic ice sheet and the ACC, we applied a multi-proxy approach on a sediment core from the central Drake Passage including grain size, iceberg-rafted debris, mineral dust, bulk chemical and mineralogical composition, and physical properties. In combination with already published and new sediment records from the Drake Passage and Scotia Sea, as well as high-resolution data from Antarctic ice cores (WDC, EDML), we now have evidence that during glacial times a more northerly extent of the perennial sea-ice zone decreased ACC current velocities in the central Drake Passage. During deglaciation the SHWW shifted southwards due to a decreasing temperature gradient between subtropical and polar latitudes caused by sea ice and ice sheet decline. This in turn caused Southern Hemisphere warming, a more vigorous ACC, stronger Southern Ocean ventilation, and warm Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) upwelling on Antarctic shelves resulting in increased ice shelf melting. Stronger upwelling is associated with a rise in atmospheric carbon dioxide to reach a threshold at which full deglaciation could become inevitable.

Isochronal Ice Sheet Model: a New Approach to Tracer Transport by Explicitly Tracing Accumulation Layers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Born, A.; Stocker, T. F.

2014-12-01

The long, high-resolution and largely undisturbed depositional record of polar ice sheets is one of the greatest resources in paleoclimate research. The vertical profile of isotopic and other geochemical tracers provides a full history of depositional and dynamical variations. Numerical simulations of this archive could afford great advances both in the interpretation of these tracers as well as to help improve ice sheet models themselves, as show successful implementations in oceanography and atmospheric dynamics. However, due to the slow advection velocities, tracer modeling in ice sheets is particularly prone to numerical diffusion, thwarting efforts that employ straightforward solutions. Previous attemps to circumvent this issue follow conceptually and computationally extensive approaches that augment traditional Eulerian models of ice flow with a semi-Lagrangian tracer scheme (e.g. Clarke et al., QSR, 2005). Here, we propose a new vertical discretization for ice sheet models that eliminates numerical diffusion entirely. Vertical motion through the model mesh is avoided by mimicking the real-world ice flow as a thinning of underlying layers (see figure). A new layer is added to the surface at equidistant time intervals (isochronally). Therefore, each layer is uniquely identified with an age. Horizontal motion follows the shallow ice approximation using an implicit numerical scheme. Vertical diffusion of heat which is physically desirable is also solved implicitly. A simulation of a two-dimensional section through the Greenland ice sheet will be discussed.

The Potsdam Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM-PIK) - Part 1: Model description

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winkelmann, R.; Martin, M. A.; Haseloff, M.; Albrecht, T.; Bueler, E.; Khroulev, C.; Levermann, A.

2011-09-01

We present the Potsdam Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM-PIK), developed at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research to be used for simulations of large-scale ice sheet-shelf systems. It is derived from the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (Bueler and Brown, 2009). Velocities are calculated by superposition of two shallow stress balance approximations within the entire ice covered region: the shallow ice approximation (SIA) is dominant in grounded regions and accounts for shear deformation parallel to the geoid. The plug-flow type shallow shelf approximation (SSA) dominates the velocity field in ice shelf regions and serves as a basal sliding velocity in grounded regions. Ice streams can be identified diagnostically as regions with a significant contribution of membrane stresses to the local momentum balance. All lateral boundaries in PISM-PIK are free to evolve, including the grounding line and ice fronts. Ice shelf margins in particular are modeled using Neumann boundary conditions for the SSA equations, reflecting a hydrostatic stress imbalance along the vertical calving face. The ice front position is modeled using a subgrid-scale representation of calving front motion (Albrecht et al., 2011) and a physically-motivated calving law based on horizontal spreading rates. The model is tested in experiments from the Marine Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project (MISMIP). A dynamic equilibrium simulation of Antarctica under present-day conditions is presented in Martin et al. (2011).

SPH non-Newtonian Model for Ice Sheet and Ice Shelf Dynamics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tartakovsky, Alexandre M.; Pan, Wenxiao; Monaghan, Joseph J.

2012-07-07

We propose a new three-dimensional smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH) non-Newtonian model to study coupled ice sheet and ice shelf dynamics. Most existing ice sheet numerical models use a grid-based Eulerian approach, and are usually restricted to shallow ice sheet and ice shelf approximations of the momentum conservation equation. SPH, a fully Lagrangian particle method, solves the full momentum conservation equation. SPH method also allows modeling of free-surface flows, large material deformation, and material fragmentation without employing complex front-tracking schemes, and does not require re-meshing. As a result, SPH codes are highly scalable. Numerical accuracy of the proposed SPH model ismore » first verified by simulating a plane shear flow with a free surface and the propagation of a blob of ice along a horizontal surface. Next, the SPH model is used to investigate the grounding line dynamics of ice sheet/shelf. The steady position of the grounding line, obtained from our SPH simulations, is in good agreement with laboratory observations for a wide range of bedrock slopes, ice-to-fluid density ratios, and flux. We examine the effect of non-Newtonian behavior of ice on the grounding line dynamics. The non-Newtonian constitutive model is based on Glen's law for a creeping flow of a polycrystalline ice. Finally, we investigate the effect of a bedrock geometry on a steady-state position of the grounding line.« less

Searching for Eustasy in Pliocene Sea-Level Records (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raymo, M. E.; Hearty, P. J.; O'Leary, M.; Mitrovica, J.; Deconto, R.; Inglis, J. D.; Robinson, M. M.

2010-12-01

It is widely accepted that greenhouse gas-induced warming over the next few decades to centuries could lead to a rise in sea level due to melting ice caps. Yet despite the enormous social and economic consequences for society, our ability to predict the likelihood and location of future melting is hampered by an insufficient theoretical and historical understanding of ice sheet behavior in the past. Various lines of evidence suggest that CO2 levels in the mid-Pliocene were between 350-450 ppm, similar to today, and it is important that significant effort be made to confirm these estimates, especially in light of policy discussions that seek to determine a “safe” level of atmospheric CO2. Likewise, accurate estimates of mid-Pliocene sea levels are necessary if we are to better constrain Greenland and Antarctic ice sheet stability in a slightly warmer world. Current published estimates of mid-Pliocene sea level (during times of maximum insolation forcing) range from +5m to >+40m (relative to present) reflecting a huge range of uncertainty in the sensitivity of polar ice sheets, including the East Antarctic Ice Sheet, to a modest global warming. Accurate determination of the maximum mid-Pliocene sea level rise is needed if climate and ice sheet modelers are to better assess the robustness of models used to predict the effects of anthropogenic global warming. Pliocene ice volume/highstand estimates fall into two classes, those derived from geologic evidence of past high stands and those derived from geochemical proxies of ice-sensitive changes in ocean chemistry. Both methods have significant errors and uncertainties associated with them. Recent multidisciplinary work along the intra-plate continental margin of Roe Plain (~250 x 30 km) on the southern coastline of Western Australia provides additional constraints on sea level during the mid-Pliocene. Outcroppings of shore-proximal marine deposits are observed at two distinct elevations across the plain, +28 ± 2 m and +18 ± 2 m. Definitive sedimentary intertidal indications (e.g., concentrated concave down bivalves characteristic of a swash zone) and subtidal biofacies including articulated valves are found throughout the deposits and suggest the occurrence two distinct highstand events. Preliminary Sr-isotopes yield a broad range of mid to late Pliocene ages. These data will be discussed in light of possible ice volume, dynamic topography, and isostatic effects. Building on these data we present a strategy for improving the accuracy of mid Pliocene sea level estimates.

Ice-sheet mass balance and climate change.

PubMed

Hanna, Edward; Navarro, Francisco J; Pattyn, Frank; Domingues, Catia M; Fettweis, Xavier; Ivins, Erik R; Nicholls, Robert J; Ritz, Catherine; Smith, Ben; Tulaczyk, Slawek; Whitehouse, Pippa L; Zwally, H Jay

2013-06-06

Since the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report, new observations of ice-sheet mass balance and improved computer simulations of ice-sheet response to continuing climate change have been published. Whereas Greenland is losing ice mass at an increasing pace, current Antarctic ice loss is likely to be less than some recently published estimates. It remains unclear whether East Antarctica has been gaining or losing ice mass over the past 20 years, and uncertainties in ice-mass change for West Antarctica and the Antarctic Peninsula remain large. We discuss the past six years of progress and examine the key problems that remain.

connecting the dots between Greenland ice sheet surface melting and ice flow dynamics (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Box, J. E.; Colgan, W. T.; Fettweis, X.; Phillips, T. P.; Stober, M.

2013-12-01

This presentation is of a 'unified theory' in glaciology that first identifies surface albedo as a key factor explaining total ice sheet mass balance and then surveys a mechanistic self-reinforcing interaction between melt water and ice flow dynamics. The theory is applied in a near-real time total Greenland mass balance retrieval based on surface albedo, a powerful integrator of the competing effects of accumulation and ablation. New snowfall reduces sunlight absorption and increases meltwater retention. Melting amplifies absorbed sunlight through thermal metamorphism and bare ice expansion in space and time. By ';following the melt'; we reveal mechanisms linking existing science into a unified theory. Increasing meltwater softens the ice sheet in three ways: 1.) sensible heating given the water temperature exceeds that of the ice sheet interior; 2.) Some infiltrating water refreezes, transferring latent heat to the ice; 3.) Friction from water turbulence heats the ice. It has been shown that for a point on the ice sheet, basal lubrication increases ice flow speed to a time when an efficient sub-glacial drainage network develops that reduces this effect. Yet, with an increasing melt duration the point where the ice sheet glides on a wet bed increases inland to a larger area. This effect draws down the ice surface elevation, contributing to the ';elevation feedback'. In a perpetual warming scenario, the elevation feedback ultimately leads to ice sheet loss reversible only through much slower ice sheet growth in an ice age environment. As the inland ice sheet accelerates, the horizontal extension pulls cracks and crevasses open, trapping more sunlight, amplifying the effect of melt accelerated ice. As the bare ice area increases, the direct sun-exposed crevassed and infiltration area increases further allowing the ice warming process to occur more broadly. Considering hydrofracture [a.k.a. hydrofracking]; surface meltwater fills cracks, attacking the ice integrity. Because water is 'heavier' than ice, water-filled cracks have unlimited capacity to hydraulically ';jack' open fractures, penetrating, fracturing and disaggregating a solid ice body. This process promotes iceberg calving at more than 150, 1km wide marine terminating Greenland glacier fronts. Resulting from a rising trend of surface melting and sea water temperature, meltwater ejection at the underwater front of marine glaciers drives a an increasing turbulent heat exchange between the glacier front and relatively warm sea water melting it faster. Underwater melting promotes an undercutting of the glacier front leading to ice berg calving. Calving through hydrofracture or marine undercutting provide a direct and immediate ice flow speed response mechanism for surface meltwater production. Ice flow speed reacts because calving reduces flow resistance. The above physical processes interact. Cooling shuts these processes down. Negative feedbacks dampen the warming impulse. Live 21 June, 2013 is a new Danish Web site1 that exploits total mass balance rate of decline as a function of albedo to predict GRACE mass rate of change with 80% explained variance. While surface mass balance explains the mass rate of change slightly higher, surface albedo is an observable quantity as is gravity change.

A Resilient Greenland Ice Sheet More Than 900,000 Years Old.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dahl-Jensen, D.; Funder, S.; Schmidt, A. Z. M.; Solgaard, A.; Steffensen, J. P.; Willerslev, E.

2014-12-01

The Greenland Ice Sheet (GRIS) has the potential of causing a 7.36 m global sea level rise (GSLR) if it were to melt away. To properly assess risk of future melting, it is crucial to understand the formation and growth of the GRIS during past climate regimes. However, despite decades of research, it remains debated when and in what environment GRIS got established and to what extent GRIS changed in size during past warm interglacials, such as MIS 5e some 130 kyr BP. Here, we present results from analyses of environmental DNA, 10Be/36Cl, 234U/238U, single grain optically stimulated luminescence (OSL), palaeomagnetics, macrofossils and molecular clock dating of basal ice from the Camp Century ice core in north western Greenland and the Kap København Formation in North Greenland. We combine these with results from the DYE 3 and GRIP ice cores from southern and central Greenland to evaluate the evolution of the GRIS. We find evidence that the present GRIS formed quickly some time before 900 kyr BP in a largely forested Greenland and that it has changed by only 30-40% of its present volume since it was established. Our DNA findings of boreal forest imply that warming of more than 10oC is needed to have an ice-free Greenland. This threshold is higher than earlier predictions and the corresponding palaeo-calibration of the GRIS contribution to sea level changes suggests a sensitivity of 0.3-0.5 m GSLR per degree Celsius of warming over Greenland. Ice core data from the deep Greenland ice cores can be used to reconstruct the size of the ice sheet during the present interglacial (the Holocene) and the last interglacial (the Eemian). Reconstructions based on stable water isotopes and gas content is used to validate the resilience of the GRIS.

Meltwater-induced changes in the structure and behavior of Greenland's firn

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

MacFerrin, M. J.; Machguth, H.; van As, D.; Charalampidis, C.; Heilig, A.; Vandecrux, B.; Stevens, C.; Abdalati, W.

2017-12-01

As surface melt increases across the Greenland ice sheet in a warming climate, Greenland's accumulation zone has absorbed a progressively greater volume of water. In low-accumulation regions lacking perennial aquifers, this meltwater has refrozen into subsurface ice, which is now fundamentally altering the structure of near-surface firn layers. Here we present an extensive collection of firn cores, in situ radar, NASA IceBridge radar, thermistor string measurements, in situ FirnCover compaction data and regional climate model results to illustrate several distinct ways that Greenland's percolation zone is being fundamentally altered by increasing surface melt. The bulk density of the top 20 meters' firn in the wet-snow facies has increased by up to 40% in the past 50 years, due primarily to an up to six-fold increase in firn ice content. Firn compaction rates have changed both in their annual magnitude and have been delayed in their seasonal phase by up to three months, driven primarily by an increased release of latent heat as water refreezes at depth. When firn exceeds a threshold of excess melt in which seasonal snow can no longer accommodate summer melt, individual refrozen ice layers at depth have annealed together to form low-permeability ice slabs (LPISs). These multi-meter thick layers of ice perched over porous firn block percolation to depth and increase the size of the runoff zone. LPISs are a type of "hybrid facies" capable both of running water off the surface, while continuing to slowly compact porous firn at depth. Currently LPISs cover approximately 5% of Greenland's current accumulation zone, but we project them to extend across 15-50% of the accumulation zone by 2100 under different forcing scenarios. These observed changes in the structure and behavior of Greenland's firn have serious implications for future runoff of the ice sheet. Additionally, they challenge modern assumptions which we use to quantify the mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet from airborne and space-borne measurements.

Polar process and world climate /A brief overview/

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goody, R.

1980-01-01

A review is presented of events relating polar regions to the world climate, the mechanisms of sea ice and polar ice sheets, and of two theories of the Pleistocene Ice Ages. The sea ice which varies over time scales of one or two years and the polar ice sheets with time changes measured in tens or hundreds of thousands of years introduce two distinct time constants into global time changes; the yearly Arctic sea ice variations affect northern Europe and have some effect over the entire Northern Hemisphere; the ice-albedo coupling in the polar ice sheets is involved in major climatic events such as the Pleistocene ice ages. It is concluded that climate problems require a global approach including the atmosphere, the oceans, and the cryosphere.

Role of ice sheet dynamics in the collapse of the early-Holocene Laurentide Ice Sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matero, I. S. O.; Gregoire, L. J.; Cornford, S. L.; Ivanovic, R. F.

2017-12-01

The last stage of the deglaciation of the Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS) during the early Holocene Thermal Maximum ( 9000 to 7000 years ago) provides an analogy and insight to the possible responses of contemporary ice sheets in a warming climate. What makes LIS particularly interesting is that meltwater from the collapse of an ice saddle over Hudson Bay was recently shown to be the primary forcing for the period of abrupt northern hemisphere cooling known as the 8.2 ka event. The evolution of the LIS during this period was likely influenced by its interaction with marginal lakes and the ocean, and its major ice stream, which exported ice towards Hudson Strait. Accurately simulating the early Holocene LIS evolution thus requires a model such as BISICLES, capable of accurately and efficiently resolving ice stream dynamics and grounding line migration thanks to the combined use of higher order physics and adaptive mesh refinement. We drive the BISICLES model using a positive degree day mass balance scheme with monthly precipitation and temperature from the HadCM3 climate model under climatic conditions from 10,000 to 8,000 years ago. We test the effect of varying the initial topographies and ice thicknesses from different timeslices in the ICE-6Gc reconstruction. We also test different parameterisations for the basal friction based on the thicknesses of the underlying sediments. These simulations evaluate the role of the Hudson Strait ice stream, ice sheet dynamics and interactions with the adjacent proglacial Lake Agassiz and North Atlantic Ocean in the collapse of the LIS. Our results highlight that the choice of parameterisation for basal friction has major effects on ice sheet dynamics and evolution.

Widespread surface meltwater drainage in Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kingslake, J.; Ely, J.; Das, I.; Bell, R. E.

2016-12-01

Surface meltwater is thought to cause ice-shelf disintegration, which accelerates the contribution of ice sheets to sea-level rise. Antarctic surface melting is predicted to increase and trigger further ice-shelf disintegration during this century. These climate-change impacts could be modulated by an active hydrological network analogous to the one in operation in Greenland. Despite some observations of Antarctic surface and sub-surface hydrological systems, large-scale active surface drainage in Antarctica has rarely been studied. We use satellite imagery and aerial photography to reveal widespread active hydrology on the surface of the Antarctic Ice Sheet as far south as 85o and as high as 1800 m a.s.l., often near mountain peaks that protrude through the ice (nunataks) and relatively low-albedo `blue-ice areas'. Despite predominantly sub-zero regional air temperatures, as simulated by a regional climate model, Antarctic active drainage has persisted for decades, transporting water through surface streams and feeding vast melt ponds up to 80 km long. Drainage networks (the largest are over 100 km in length) form on flat ice shelves, steep outlet glaciers and ice-sheet flanks across the West and East Antarctica Ice Sheets. Motivated by the proximity of many drainage systems to low-albedo rock and blue-ice areas, we hypothesize a positive feedback between exposed-rock extent, BIA formation, melting and ice-sheet thinning. This feedback relies on drainage moving water long distances from areas near exposed rock, across the grounding line onto and across ice shelves - a process we observe, but had previously thought to be unlikely in Antarctica. This work highlights previously-overlooked processes, not captured by current regional-scale models, which may accelerate the retreat of the Antarctic Ice Sheet.

Comparison of New Airborne Gravity Results and GRACE Anomalies in the Thwaites Glacier Catchment of the Amundsen Sea Embayment, West Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Diehl, T. M.; Holt, J. W.; Blankenship, D. D.; Richter, T. G.; Filina, I. Y.

2005-12-01

The West Antarctic Ice Sheet is a marine ice sheet of which 75% is resting on bedrock below sea level. This situation is highly unstable and as the climate warms, the potential for rapid discharge of the ice sheet grows. Examining the areas of the ice sheet that are most likely to react to changing climate is essential. The Amundsen Sea Embayment contains two of the most important outlet glaciers in West Antarctica: Thwaites and Pine Island Glaciers. These two glaciers have among the highest discharge velocities in West Antarctica and they lack large protective ice shelves, making them susceptible to warming ocean waters. The area is currently a target of interest for both GRACE and GLAS, as well as future land- and air-based surveys. To date, we have conducted the only large-scale geophysical survey over the catchment of Thwaites Glacier: an airborne survey completed during the austral summer 2004-2005. Over 43,500 line-kilometers of data were collected with a geophysical platform that included ice-penetrating radar, gravity, magnetics, laser and pressure altimetry, and GPS. Free-air gravity, in conjunction with magnetics and radar-derived subglacial topography, is capable of delineating microplate and rift boundaries as well as basin and volcano locations. A free-air gravity map of these structures helps ascertain the contribution of subglacial geology to the ice sheet's decay in the Thwaites Glacier catchment. The acquisition, reduction, and initial results of the airborne gravity survey will be presented and then compared to GRACE gravity anomalies. Extreme relief in ice surface elevation across the survey area necessitated short, smooth vertical altitude changes at survey block boundaries to maintain adequate flight altitude for the onboard ice-penetrating radar systems. Weather conditions sometimes required additional elevation changes or course corrections, producing significant aircraft motion during data acquisition. The impacts of these aircraft motions on the gravity data are discussed. The combination of GPS-derived horizontal accelerations with meter-mounted accelerometer measurements allows for the direct calculation of platform leveling errors, including leakage of the horizontal accelerations into the measured vertical gravity. We examine the magnitude and significance of platform leveling errors in relation to the overall survey resolution. Power spectral analysis of the gravity illuminates differences in the anomaly detection threshold over thick ice like that near Byrd Subglacial Basin versus over thin ice like that near the Thwaites Glacier grounding line. Filtering requirements for this situation are discussed. A preliminary free-air gravity map for the Thwaites Glacier catchment is presented along with error analysis and initial structural interpretations. The interpretations of the airborne regional gravity will be compared to GRACE static gravity anomalies over the same area of the catchment.

Global ice sheet/RSL simulations using the higher-order Ice Sheet System Model.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Larour, E. Y.; Ivins, E. R.; Adhikari, S.; Schlegel, N.; Seroussi, H. L.; Morlighem, M.

2017-12-01

Relative sea-level rise is driven by processes that are intimately linked to the evolution ofglacial areas and ice sheets in particular. So far, most Earth System models capable of projecting theevolution of RSL on decadal to centennial time scales have relied on offline interactions between RSL andice sheets. In particular, grounding line and calving front dynamics have not been modeled in a way that istightly coupled with Elasto-Static Adjustment (ESA) and/or Glacial-Isostatic Adjustment (GIA). Here, we presenta new simulation of the entire Earth System in which both Greenland and Antarctica ice sheets are tightly coupledto an RSL model that includes both ESA and GIA at resolutions and time scales compatible with processes suchas grounding line dynamics for Antarctica ice shelves and calving front dynamics for Greenland marine-terminatingglaciers. The simulations rely on the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM) and show the impact of higher-orderice flow dynamics and coupling feedbacks between ice flow and RSL. We quantify the exact impact of ESA andGIA inclusion on grounding line evolution for large ice shelves such as the Ronne and Ross ice shelves, as well asthe Agasea Embayment ice streams, and demonstate how offline vs online RSL simulations diverge in the long run,and the consequences for predictions of sea-level rise.This work was performed at the California Institute of Technology's Jet Propulsion Laboratory undera contract with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Cryosphere Science Program.

Numerical simulations of the Cordilleran ice sheet through the last glacial cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seguinot, Julien; Rogozhina, Irina; Stroeven, Arjen P.; Margold, Martin; Kleman, Johan

2016-03-01

After more than a century of geological research, the Cordilleran ice sheet of North America remains among the least understood in terms of its former extent, volume, and dynamics. Because of the mountainous topography on which the ice sheet formed, geological studies have often had only local or regional relevance and shown such a complexity that ice-sheet-wide spatial reconstructions of advance and retreat patterns are lacking. Here we use a numerical ice sheet model calibrated against field-based evidence to attempt a quantitative reconstruction of the Cordilleran ice sheet history through the last glacial cycle. A series of simulations is driven by time-dependent temperature offsets from six proxy records located around the globe. Although this approach reveals large variations in model response to evolving climate forcing, all simulations produce two major glaciations during marine oxygen isotope stages 4 (62.2-56.9 ka) and 2 (23.2-16.9 ka). The timing of glaciation is better reproduced using temperature reconstructions from Greenland and Antarctic ice cores than from regional oceanic sediment cores. During most of the last glacial cycle, the modelled ice cover is discontinuous and restricted to high mountain areas. However, widespread precipitation over the Skeena Mountains favours the persistence of a central ice dome throughout the glacial cycle. It acts as a nucleation centre before the Last Glacial Maximum and hosts the last remains of Cordilleran ice until the middle Holocene (6.7 ka).

SeaRISE: A Multidisciplinary Research Initiative to Predict Rapid Changes in Global Sea Level Caused by Collapse of Marine Ice Sheets

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bindschadler, Robert A. (Editor)

1990-01-01

The results of a workshop held to discuss the role of the polar ice sheets in global climate change are reported. The participants agreed that the most important aspect of the ice sheets' involvement in climate change is the potential of marine ice sheets to cause a rapid change in global sea level. To address this concern, a research initiative is called for that considers the full complexity of the coupled atmosphere-ocean-cryosphere-lithosphere system. This initiative, called SeaRISE (Sea-level Response to Ice Sheet Evolution) has the goal of predicting the contribution of marine ice sheets to rapid changes in global sea level in the next decade to few centuries. To attain this goal, a coordinated program of multidisciplinary investigations must be launched with the linked objectives of understanding the current state, internal dynamics, interactions, and history of this environmental system. The key questions needed to satisfy these objectives are presented and discussed along with a plan of action to make the SeaRISE project a reality.