The FORE-SCE model: a practical approach for projecting land cover change using scenario-based modeling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sohl, Terry L.; Sayler, Kristi L.; Drummond, Mark A.; Loveland, Thomas R.

2007-01-01

A wide variety of ecological applications require spatially explicit, historic, current, and projected land use and land cover data. The U.S. Land Cover Trends project is analyzing contemporary (1973–2000) land-cover change in the conterminous United States. The newly developed FORE-SCE model used Land Cover Trends data and theoretical, statistical, and deterministic modeling techniques to project future land cover change through 2020 for multiple plausible scenarios. Projected proportions of future land use were initially developed, and then sited on the lands with the highest potential for supporting that land use and land cover using a statistically based stochastic allocation procedure. Three scenarios of 2020 land cover were mapped for the western Great Plains in the US. The model provided realistic, high-resolution, scenario-based land-cover products suitable for multiple applications, including studies of climate and weather variability, carbon dynamics, and regional hydrology.

Land use scenarios development and impacts assessment on vegetation carbon/nitrogen sequestration in the West African Sudan savanna watershed, Benin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chabi, A.

2015-12-01

ackground: Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD+), being developed through the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) requires information on the carbon/nitrogen stocks in the plant biomass for predicting future climate under scenarios development. The development of land use scenarios in West Africa is needed to predict future impacts of change in the environment and the socio-economic status of rural communities. The study aims at developing land use scenario based on mitigation strategy to climate change as an issue of contributing for carbon and nitrogen sequestration, the condition 'food focused' as a scenario based crop production and 'financial investment' as scenario based on an economic development pathway, and to explore the possible future temporal and spatial impacts on vegetation carbon/nitrogen sequestration/emission and socio-economic status of rural communities. Preliminary results: BEN-LUDAS (Benin-Land Use DyNamic Simulator) model, carbon and nitrogen equations, remote sensing and socio-economic data were used to predict the future impacts of each scenario in the environment and human systems. The preliminary results which are under analysis will be presented soon. Conclusion: The proposed BEN-LUDAS models will help to contribute to policy decision making at the local and regional scale and to predict future impacts of change in the environment and socio-economic status of the rural communities. Keywords: Land use scenarios development, BEN-LUDAS, socio-economic status of rural communities, future impacts of change, assessment, West African Sudan savanna watershed, Benin

Evaluating hydrological response of future land cover change scenarios in the San Pedro River (U.S./Mexico) with the automated geospatial watershed assessment (AGWA) tool

Treesearch

William G. Kepner; I. Shea Burns; David C Goodrich; D. Phillip Guertin; Gabriel S. Sidman; Lainie R. Levick; Wison W.S. Yee; Melissa M.A. Scianni; Clifton S. Meek; Jared B. Vollmer

2016-01-01

Long-term land-use and land cover change and their associated impacts pose critical challenges to sustaining vital hydrological ecosystem services for future generations. In this study, a methodology was developed to characterize potential hydrologic impacts from future urban growth through time. Future growth is represented by housing density maps generated in decadal...

Predicting Plant Diversity Patterns in Madagascar: Understanding the Effects of Climate and Land Cover Change in a Biodiversity Hotspot

PubMed Central

Brown, Kerry A.; Parks, Katherine E.; Bethell, Colin A.; Johnson, Steig E.; Mulligan, Mark

2015-01-01

Climate and land cover change are driving a major reorganization of terrestrial biotic communities in tropical ecosystems. In an effort to understand how biodiversity patterns in the tropics will respond to individual and combined effects of these two drivers of environmental change, we use species distribution models (SDMs) calibrated for recent climate and land cover variables and projected to future scenarios to predict changes in diversity patterns in Madagascar. We collected occurrence records for 828 plant genera and 2186 plant species. We developed three scenarios, (i.e., climate only, land cover only and combined climate-land cover) based on recent and future climate and land cover variables. We used this modelling framework to investigate how the impacts of changes to climate and land cover influenced biodiversity across ecoregions and elevation bands. There were large-scale climate- and land cover-driven changes in plant biodiversity across Madagascar, including both losses and gains in diversity. The sharpest declines in biodiversity were projected for the eastern escarpment and high elevation ecosystems. Sharp declines in diversity were driven by the combined climate-land cover scenarios; however, there were subtle, region-specific differences in model outputs for each scenario, where certain regions experienced relatively higher species loss under climate or land cover only models. We strongly caution that predicted future gains in plant diversity will depend on the development and maintenance of dispersal pathways that connect current and future suitable habitats. The forecast for Madagascar’s plant diversity in the face of future environmental change is worrying: regional diversity will continue to decrease in response to the combined effects of climate and land cover change, with habitats such as ericoid thickets and eastern lowland and sub-humid forests particularly vulnerable into the future. PMID:25856241

Predicting plant diversity patterns in Madagascar: understanding the effects of climate and land cover change in a biodiversity hotspot.

PubMed

Brown, Kerry A; Parks, Katherine E; Bethell, Colin A; Johnson, Steig E; Mulligan, Mark

2015-01-01

Climate and land cover change are driving a major reorganization of terrestrial biotic communities in tropical ecosystems. In an effort to understand how biodiversity patterns in the tropics will respond to individual and combined effects of these two drivers of environmental change, we use species distribution models (SDMs) calibrated for recent climate and land cover variables and projected to future scenarios to predict changes in diversity patterns in Madagascar. We collected occurrence records for 828 plant genera and 2186 plant species. We developed three scenarios, (i.e., climate only, land cover only and combined climate-land cover) based on recent and future climate and land cover variables. We used this modelling framework to investigate how the impacts of changes to climate and land cover influenced biodiversity across ecoregions and elevation bands. There were large-scale climate- and land cover-driven changes in plant biodiversity across Madagascar, including both losses and gains in diversity. The sharpest declines in biodiversity were projected for the eastern escarpment and high elevation ecosystems. Sharp declines in diversity were driven by the combined climate-land cover scenarios; however, there were subtle, region-specific differences in model outputs for each scenario, where certain regions experienced relatively higher species loss under climate or land cover only models. We strongly caution that predicted future gains in plant diversity will depend on the development and maintenance of dispersal pathways that connect current and future suitable habitats. The forecast for Madagascar's plant diversity in the face of future environmental change is worrying: regional diversity will continue to decrease in response to the combined effects of climate and land cover change, with habitats such as ericoid thickets and eastern lowland and sub-humid forests particularly vulnerable into the future.

Biodiversity scenarios neglect future land-use changes.

PubMed

Titeux, Nicolas; Henle, Klaus; Mihoub, Jean-Baptiste; Regos, Adrián; Geijzendorffer, Ilse R; Cramer, Wolfgang; Verburg, Peter H; Brotons, Lluís

2016-07-01

Efficient management of biodiversity requires a forward-looking approach based on scenarios that explore biodiversity changes under future environmental conditions. A number of ecological models have been proposed over the last decades to develop these biodiversity scenarios. Novel modelling approaches with strong theoretical foundation now offer the possibility to integrate key ecological and evolutionary processes that shape species distribution and community structure. Although biodiversity is affected by multiple threats, most studies addressing the effects of future environmental changes on biodiversity focus on a single threat only. We examined the studies published during the last 25 years that developed scenarios to predict future biodiversity changes based on climate, land-use and land-cover change projections. We found that biodiversity scenarios mostly focus on the future impacts of climate change and largely neglect changes in land use and land cover. The emphasis on climate change impacts has increased over time and has now reached a maximum. Yet, the direct destruction and degradation of habitats through land-use and land-cover changes are among the most significant and immediate threats to biodiversity. We argue that the current state of integration between ecological and land system sciences is leading to biased estimation of actual risks and therefore constrains the implementation of forward-looking policy responses to biodiversity decline. We suggest research directions at the crossroads between ecological and environmental sciences to face the challenge of developing interoperable and plausible projections of future environmental changes and to anticipate the full range of their potential impacts on biodiversity. An intergovernmental platform is needed to stimulate such collaborative research efforts and to emphasize the societal and political relevance of taking up this challenge. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Land-use impacts on water resources and protected areas: applications of state-and-transition simulation modeling of future scenarios

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wilson, Tamara; Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Sherba, Jason T.; Dick Cameron,

2015-01-01

Human land use will increasingly contribute to habitat loss and water shortages in California, given future population projections and associated land-use demand. Understanding how land-use change may impact future water use and where existing protected areas may be threatened by land-use conversion will be important if effective, sustainable management approaches are to be implemented. We used a state-and-transition simulation modeling (STSM) framework to simulate spatially-explicit (1 km2) historical (1992-2010) and future (2011-2060) land-use change for 52 California counties within Mediterranean California ecoregions. Historical land use and land cover (LULC) change estimates were derived from the Farmland Mapping and Monitoring Program dataset and attributed with county-level agricultural water-use data from the California Department of Water Resources. Five future alternative land-use scenarios were developed and modeled using the historical land-use change estimates and land-use projections based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Special Report on Emission Scenarios A2 and B1 scenarios. Spatial land-use transition outputs across scenarios were combined to reveal scenario agreement and a land conversion threat index was developed to evaluate vulnerability of existing protected areas to proximal land conversion. By 2060, highest LULC conversion threats were projected to impact nearly 10,500 km2 of land area within 10 km of a protected area boundary and over 18,000 km2 of land area within essential habitat connectivity areas. Agricultural water use declined across all scenarios perpetuating historical drought-related land use from 2008-2010 and trends of annual cropland conversion into perennial woody crops. STSM is useful in analyzing land-use related impacts on water resource use as well as potential threats to existing protected land. Exploring a range of alternative, yet plausible, LULC change impacts will help to better inform resource management and mitigation strategies.

Spatially explicit land-use and land-cover scenarios for the Great Plains of the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sohl, Terry L.; Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Sayler, Kristi L.; Bouchard, Michelle A.; Reker, Ryan R.; Bennett, Stacie L.; Sleeter, Rachel R.; Kanengieter, Ronald L.; Zhu, Zhi-Liang

2012-01-01

The Great Plains of the United States has undergone extensive land-use and land-cover change in the past 150 years, with much of the once vast native grasslands and wetlands converted to agricultural crops, and much of the unbroken prairie now heavily grazed. Future land-use change in the region could have dramatic impacts on ecological resources and processes. A scenario-based modeling framework is needed to support the analysis of potential land-use change in an uncertain future, and to mitigate potentially negative future impacts on ecosystem processes. We developed a scenario-based modeling framework to analyze potential future land-use change in the Great Plains. A unique scenario construction process, using an integrated modeling framework, historical data, workshops, and expert knowledge, was used to develop quantitative demand for future land-use change for four IPCC scenarios at the ecoregion level. The FORE-SCE model ingested the scenario information and produced spatially explicit land-use maps for the region at relatively fine spatial and thematic resolutions. Spatial modeling of the four scenarios provided spatial patterns of land-use change consistent with underlying assumptions and processes associated with each scenario. Economically oriented scenarios were characterized by significant loss of natural land covers and expansion of agricultural and urban land uses. Environmentally oriented scenarios experienced modest declines in natural land covers to slight increases. Model results were assessed for quantity and allocation disagreement between each scenario pair. In conjunction with the U.S. Geological Survey's Biological Carbon Sequestration project, the scenario-based modeling framework used for the Great Plains is now being applied to the entire United States.

Mediterranean California’s water use future under multiple scenarios of developed and agricultural land use change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wilson, Tamara; Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Cameron, D. Richard

2017-01-01

With growing demand and highly variable inter-annual water supplies, California’s water use future is fraught with uncertainty. Climate change projections, anticipated population growth, and continued agricultural intensification, will likely stress existing water supplies in coming decades. Using a state-and-transition simulation modeling approach, we examine a broad suite of spatially explicit future land use scenarios and their associated county-level water use demand out to 2062. We examined a range of potential water demand futures sampled from a 20-year record of historical (1992–2012) data to develop a suite of potential future land change scenarios, including low/high change scenarios for urbanization and agriculture as well as “lowest of the low” and “highest of the high” anthropogenic use. Future water demand decreased 8.3 billion cubic meters (Bm3) in the lowest of the low scenario and decreased 0.8 Bm3 in the low agriculture scenario. The greatest increased water demand was projected for the highest of the high land use scenario (+9.4 Bm3), high agricultural expansion (+4.6 Bm3), and high urbanization (+2.1 Bm3) scenarios. Overall, these scenarios show agricultural land use decisions will likely drive future demand more than increasing municipal and industrial uses, yet improved efficiencies across all sectors could lead to potential water use savings. Results provide water managers with information on diverging land use and water use futures, based on historical, observed land change trends and water use histories.

Mediterranean California’s water use future under multiple scenarios of developed and agricultural land use change

PubMed Central

Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Cameron, D. Richard

2017-01-01

With growing demand and highly variable inter-annual water supplies, California’s water use future is fraught with uncertainty. Climate change projections, anticipated population growth, and continued agricultural intensification, will likely stress existing water supplies in coming decades. Using a state-and-transition simulation modeling approach, we examine a broad suite of spatially explicit future land use scenarios and their associated county-level water use demand out to 2062. We examined a range of potential water demand futures sampled from a 20-year record of historical (1992–2012) data to develop a suite of potential future land change scenarios, including low/high change scenarios for urbanization and agriculture as well as “lowest of the low” and “highest of the high” anthropogenic use. Future water demand decreased 8.3 billion cubic meters (Bm3) in the lowest of the low scenario and decreased 0.8 Bm3 in the low agriculture scenario. The greatest increased water demand was projected for the highest of the high land use scenario (+9.4 Bm3), high agricultural expansion (+4.6 Bm3), and high urbanization (+2.1 Bm3) scenarios. Overall, these scenarios show agricultural land use decisions will likely drive future demand more than increasing municipal and industrial uses, yet improved efficiencies across all sectors could lead to potential water use savings. Results provide water managers with information on diverging land use and water use futures, based on historical, observed land change trends and water use histories. PMID:29088254

Global land cover mapping and characterization: present situation and future research priorities

USGS Publications Warehouse

Giri, Chandra

2005-01-01

The availability and accessibility of global land cover data sets plays an important role in many global change studies. The importance of such science‐based information is also reflected in a number of international, regional, and national projects and programs. Recent developments in earth observing satellite technology, information technology, computer hardware and software, and infrastructure development have helped developed better quality land cover data sets. As a result, such data sets are increasingly becoming available, the user‐base is ever widening, application areas have been expanding, and the potential of many other applications are enormous. Yet, we are far from producing high quality global land cover data sets. This paper examines the progress in the development of digital global land cover data, their availability, and current applications. Problems and opportunities are also explained. The overview sets the stage for identifying future research priorities needed for operational land cover assessment and monitoring.

Assessing Hydrologic Impacts of Future Land Cover Change ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Long‐term land‐use and land cover change and their associated impacts pose critical challenges to sustaining vital hydrological ecosystem services for future generations. In this study, a methodology was developed on the San Pedro River Basin to characterize hydrologic impacts from future urban growth through time. This methodology was then expanded and utilized to characterize the changing hydrology on the South Platte River Basin. Future urban growth is represented by housingdensity maps generated in decadal intervals from 2010 to 2100, produced by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Integrated Climate and Land‐Use Scenarios (ICLUS) project. ICLUS developed future housing density maps by adapting the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) social, economic, and demographic storylines to the conterminous United States. To characterize hydrologic impacts from future growth, the housing density maps were reclassified to National Land Cover Database (NLCD) 2006 land cover classes and used to parameterize the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) using the Automated Geospatial Watershed Assessment (AGWA) tool. The objectives of this project were to 1) develop and describe a methodology for adapting the ICLUS data for use in AGWA as anapproach to evaluate basin‐wide impacts of development on water‐quantity and ‐quality, 2) present initial results from the application of the methodology to

QUANTIFYING AN UNCERTAIN FUTURE: HYDROLOGIC MODEL PERFORMANCE FOR A SERIES OF REALIZED "FUTURE" CONDITIONS

EPA Science Inventory

GIS-based hydrologic modeling offers a convenient means of assessing the impacts associated with land-cover/use change for environmental planning efforts. Future scenarios can be developed through a combination of modifications to the land-cover/use maps used to parameterize hydr...

Participative Spatial Scenario Analysis for Alpine Ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kohler, Marina; Stotten, Rike; Steinbacher, Melanie; Leitinger, Georg; Tasser, Erich; Schirpke, Uta; Tappeiner, Ulrike; Schermer, Markus

2017-10-01

Land use and land cover patterns are shaped by the interplay of human and ecological processes. Thus, heterogeneous cultural landscapes have developed, delivering multiple ecosystem services. To guarantee human well-being, the development of land use types has to be evaluated. Scenario development and land use and land cover change models are well-known tools for assessing future landscape changes. However, as social and ecological systems are inextricably linked, land use-related management decisions are difficult to identify. The concept of social-ecological resilience can thereby provide a framework for understanding complex interlinkages on multiple scales and from different disciplines. In our study site (Stubai Valley, Tyrol/Austria), we applied a sequence of steps including the characterization of the social-ecological system and identification of key drivers that influence farmers' management decisions. We then developed three scenarios, i.e., "trend", "positive" and "negative" future development of farming conditions and assessed respective future land use changes. Results indicate that within the "trend" and "positive" scenarios pluri-activity (various sources of income) prevents considerable changes in land use and land cover and promotes the resilience of farming systems. Contrarily, reductions in subsidies and changes in consumer behavior are the most important key drivers in the negative scenario and lead to distinct abandonment of grassland, predominantly in the sub-alpine zone of our study site. Our conceptual approach, i.e., the combination of social and ecological methods and the integration of local stakeholders' knowledge into spatial scenario analysis, resulted in highly detailed and spatially explicit results that can provide a basis for further community development recommendations.

Participative Spatial Scenario Analysis for Alpine Ecosystems.

PubMed

Kohler, Marina; Stotten, Rike; Steinbacher, Melanie; Leitinger, Georg; Tasser, Erich; Schirpke, Uta; Tappeiner, Ulrike; Schermer, Markus

2017-10-01

Land use and land cover patterns are shaped by the interplay of human and ecological processes. Thus, heterogeneous cultural landscapes have developed, delivering multiple ecosystem services. To guarantee human well-being, the development of land use types has to be evaluated. Scenario development and land use and land cover change models are well-known tools for assessing future landscape changes. However, as social and ecological systems are inextricably linked, land use-related management decisions are difficult to identify. The concept of social-ecological resilience can thereby provide a framework for understanding complex interlinkages on multiple scales and from different disciplines. In our study site (Stubai Valley, Tyrol/Austria), we applied a sequence of steps including the characterization of the social-ecological system and identification of key drivers that influence farmers' management decisions. We then developed three scenarios, i.e., "trend", "positive" and "negative" future development of farming conditions and assessed respective future land use changes. Results indicate that within the "trend" and "positive" scenarios pluri-activity (various sources of income) prevents considerable changes in land use and land cover and promotes the resilience of farming systems. Contrarily, reductions in subsidies and changes in consumer behavior are the most important key drivers in the negative scenario and lead to distinct abandonment of grassland, predominantly in the sub-alpine zone of our study site. Our conceptual approach, i.e., the combination of social and ecological methods and the integration of local stakeholders' knowledge into spatial scenario analysis, resulted in highly detailed and spatially explicit results that can provide a basis for further community development recommendations.

Land use in Maine: determinants of past trends and projections of future changes.

Treesearch

Andrew J. Plantinga; Thomas Mauldlin; Ralph J. Alig

1999-01-01

About 90 percent of the land in Maine is in forests. We analyzed past land use trends in Maine and developed projections of future land use. Since the 1950s, the area of forest in Maine has increased by almost 400,000 acres; however, the trends differ among ownerships, as the area of nonindustrial private timberland declined by 800,000 acres since 1950, while private...

Trajectories of Future Land Use for Earth System Modeling of the Northeast United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosenzweig, B.; Vorosmarty, C. J.; Lu, X.; Kicklighter, D. W.

2015-12-01

The U.S. Northeast includes some of the nation's most populated cities and their supporting hinterlands, with an urban corridor spanning from Maine to Virginia. The megaregion's centuries-long history of landscape transformations has had enduring impact on the region's hydrology, ecosystems and socioeconomy. Driven by policy decisions made in the next decade, future landscape changes will also interplay with climate change, with multi-decadal effects that are currently poorly understood. While existing national and global land cover trajectories will play an important role in understanding these future impacts, they do not allow for investigation of many issues of interest to regional stakeholders, such as local zoning and suburban sprawl, the development of a regional food system, or varying rates of natural lands protection. Existing land cover trajectories also do not usually provide the detail needed as input drivers for earth system models, such as disaggregated vegetation types or harmonized time series of infrastructure management. We discuss the development of a simple land use/land cover allocation scheme to develop such needed trajectories, their implementation for 4 regional socioeconomic pathways developed collaboratively with regional stakeholders, and their preliminary use in regional ecosystem modeling.

MODELING WILDLIFE HABITAT SUITABILITY IN THE WILLAMETTE BASIN: A COMPARISON OF PAST, PRESENT AND A RANGE OF POSSIBLE FUTURES (CA. 2050)

EPA Science Inventory

The effects of three possible land use futures in the Willamette Basin are evaluated with respect to present and historic conditions of wildlife habitat. Basin wide land use/land cover maps were developed by the Pacific Northwest Ecosystem Research Consortium (PNW-ERC) in coopera...

Development of a prototype land use model for statewide transportation planning activities.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2011-11-30

Future land use forecasting is an important input to transportation planning modeling. Traditionally, land use is allocated to individual : traffic analysis zones (TAZ) based on variables such as the amount of vacant land, zoning restriction, land us...

Future land-use related water demand in California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wilson, Tamara; Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Cameron, D. Richard

2016-01-01

Water shortages in California are a growing concern amidst ongoing drought, earlier spring snowmelt, projected future climate warming, and currently mandated water use restrictions. Increases in population and land use in coming decades will place additional pressure on already limited available water supplies. We used a state-and-transition simulation model to project future changes in developed (municipal and industrial) and agricultural land use to estimate associated water use demand from 2012 to 2062. Under current efficiency rates, total water use was projected to increase 1.8 billion cubic meters(+4.1%) driven primarily by urbanization and shifts to more water intensive crops. Only if currently mandated 25% reductions in municipal water use are continuously implemented would water demand in 2062 balance to water use levels in 2012. This is the first modeling effort of its kind to examine regional land-use related water demand incorporating historical trends of both developed and agricultural land uses.

Forecasting relative impacts of land use on anadromous fish habitat to guide conservation planning.

PubMed

Lohse, Kathleen A; Newburn, David A; Opperman, Jeff J; Merenlender, Adina M

2008-03-01

Land use change can adversely affect water quality and freshwater ecosystems, yet our ability to predict how systems will respond to different land uses, particularly rural-residential development, is limited by data availability and our understanding of biophysical thresholds. In this study, we use spatially explicit parcel-level data to examine the influence of land use (including urban, rural-residential, and vineyard) on salmon spawning substrate quality in tributaries of the Russian River in California. We develop a land use change model to forecast the probability of losses in high-quality spawning habitat and recommend priority areas for incentive-based land conservation efforts. Ordinal logistic regression results indicate that all three land use types were negatively associated with spawning substrate quality, with urban development having the largest marginal impact. For two reasons, however, forecasted rural-residential and vineyard development have much larger influences on decreasing spawning substrate quality relative to urban development. First, the land use change model estimates 10 times greater land use conversion to both rural-residential and vineyard compared to urban. Second, forecasted urban development is concentrated in the most developed watersheds, which already have poor spawning substrate quality, such that the marginal response to future urban development is less significant. To meet the goals of protecting salmonid spawning habitat and optimizing investments in salmon recovery, we suggest investing in watersheds where future rural-residential development and vineyards threaten high-quality fish habitat, rather than the most developed watersheds, where land values are higher.

A digital spatial predictive model of land-use change using economic and environmental inputs and a statistical tree classification approach: Thailand, 1970s--1990s

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Felkner, John Sames

The scale and extent of global land use change is massive, and has potentially powerful effects on the global climate and global atmospheric composition (Turner & Meyer, 1994). Because of this tremendous change and impact, there is an urgent need for quantitative, empirical models of land use change, especially predictive models with an ability to capture the trajectories of change (Agarwal, Green, Grove, Evans, & Schweik, 2000; Lambin et al., 1999). For this research, a spatial statistical predictive model of land use change was created and run in two provinces of Thailand. The model utilized an extensive spatial database, and used a classification tree approach for explanatory model creation and future land use (Breiman, Friedman, Olshen, & Stone, 1984). Eight input variables were used, and the trees were run on a dependent variable of land use change measured from 1979 to 1989 using classified satellite imagery. The derived tree models were used to create probability of change surfaces, and these were then used to create predicted land cover maps for 1999. These predicted 1999 maps were compared with actual 1999 landcover derived from 1999 Landsat 7 imagery. The primary research hypothesis was that an explanatory model using both economic and environmental input variables would better predict future land use change than would either a model using only economic variables or a model using only environmental. Thus, the eight input variables included four economic and four environmental variables. The results indicated a very slight superiority of the full models to predict future agricultural change and future deforestation, but a slight superiority of the economic models to predict future built change. However, the margins of superiority were too small to be statistically significant. The resulting tree structures were used, however, to derive a series of principles or "rules" governing land use change in both provinces. The model was able to predict future land use, given a series of assumptions, with 90 percent overall accuracies. The model can be used in other developing or developed country locations for future land use prediction, determination of future threatened areas, or to derive "rules" or principles driving land use change.

Can conservation funding be left to carbon finance? Evidence from participatory future land use scenarios in Peru, Indonesia, Tanzania, and Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ravikumar, Ashwin; Larjavaara, Markku; Larson, Anne; Kanninen, Markku

2017-01-01

Revenues derived from carbon have been seen as an important tool for supporting forest conservation over the past decade. At the same time, there is high uncertainty about how much revenue can reasonably be expected from land use emissions reductions initiatives. Despite this uncertainty, REDD+ projects and conservation initiatives that aim to take advantage of available or, more commonly, future funding from carbon markets have proliferated. This study used participatory multi-stakeholder workshops to develop divergent future scenarios of land use in eight landscapes in four countries around the world: Peru, Indonesia, Tanzania, and Mexico. The results of these future scenario building exercises were analyzed using a new tool, CarboScen, for calculating the landscape carbon storage implications of different future land use scenarios. The findings suggest that potential revenues from carbon storage or emissions reductions are significant in some landscapes (most notably the peat forests of Indonesia), and much less significant in others (such as the low-carbon forests of Zanzibar and the interior of Tanzania). The findings call into question the practicality of many conservation programs that hinge on expectations of future revenue from carbon finance. The future scenarios-based approach is useful to policy-makers and conservation program developers in distinguishing between landscapes where carbon finance can substantially support conservation, and landscapes where other strategies for conservation and land use should be prioritized.

A stochastic forest fire model for future land cover scenarios assessment

Treesearch

M. D' Andrea; P. Fiorucci; T.P. Holmes

2011-01-01

Land cover is affected by many factors including economic development, climate and natural disturbances such as wildfires. The ability to evaluate how fire regimes may alter future vegetation, and how future vegetation may alter fire regimes, would assist forest managers in planning management actions to be carried out in the face of anticipated socio-economic and...

A Method for Mapping Future Urbanization in the United States

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bounoua, Lahouari; Nigro, Joseph; Thome, Kurtis; Zhang, Ping; Fathi, Najlaa; Lachir, Asia

2018-01-01

Cities are poised to absorb additional people. Their sustainability, or ability to accommodate a population increase without depleting resources or compromising future growth, depends on whether they harness the efficiency gains from urban land management. Population is often projected as a bulk national number without details about spatial distribution. We use Landsat and population data in a methodology to project and map U.S. urbanization for the year 2020 and document its spatial pattern. This methodology is important to spatially disaggregate projected population and assist land managers to monitor land use, assess infrastructure and distribute resources. We found the U.S. west coast urban areas to have the fastest population growth with relatively small land consumption resulting in future decrease in per capita land use. Except for Miami (FL), most other U.S. large urban areas, especially in the Midwest, are growing spatially faster than their population and inadvertently consuming land needed for ecosystem services. In large cities, such as New York, Chicago, Houston and Miami, land development is expected more in suburban zones than urban cores. In contrast, in Los Angeles land development within the city core is greater than in its suburbs.

Land use planning

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1975-01-01

The organization, objectives, and accomplishments of the panel on Land Use Planning are reported. Technology developments, and projected developments are discussed along with anticipated information requirements. The issues for users, recommended remote sensing programs, and space systems are presented. It was found that remote sensing systems are useful in future land use planning. It is recommended that a change detection system for monitoring land use and critical environmental areas be developed by 1979.

Environmental assessment of spatial plan policies through land use scenarios

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Geneletti, Davide, E-mail: davide.geneletti@ing.unitn.it

2012-01-15

This paper presents a method based on scenario analysis to compare the environmental effects of different spatial plan policies in a range of possible futures. The study aimed at contributing to overcome two limitations encountered in Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) for spatial planning: poor exploration of how the future might unfold, and poor consideration of alternative plan policies. Scenarios were developed through what-if functions and spatial modeling in a Geographical Information System (GIS), and consisted in maps that represent future land uses under different assumptions on key driving forces. The use of land use scenarios provided a representation of howmore » the different policies will look like on the ground. This allowed gaining a better understanding of the policies' implications on the environment, which could be measured through a set of indicators. The research undertook a case-study approach by developing and assessing land use scenarios for the future growth of Caia, a strategically-located and fast-developing town in rural Mozambique. The effects of alternative spatial plan policies were assessed against a set of environmental performance indicators, including deforestation, loss of agricultural land, encroachment of flood-prone areas and wetlands and access to water sources. In this way, critical environmental effects related to the implementation of each policy were identified and discussed, suggesting possible strategies to address them. - Graphical abstract: Display Omitted Research Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The method contributes to two critical issues in SEA: exploration of the future and consideration of alternatives. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Future scenarios are used to test the environmental performance of different spatial plan policies in uncertainty conditions. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Spatially-explicit land use scenarios provide a representation of how different policies will look like on the ground.« less

Can future land use change be usefully predicted?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramankutty, N.; Coomes, O.

2011-12-01

There has been increasing recognition over the last decade that land use and land cover change is an important driver of global environmental change. Consequently, there have been growing efforts to understanding processes of land change from local-to-global scales, and to develop models to predict future changes in the land. However, we believe that such efforts are hampered by limited attention being paid to the critical points of land change. Here, we present a framework for understanding land use change by distinguishing within-regime land-use dynamics from land-use regime shifts. Illustrative historical examples reveal the significance of land-use regime shifts. We further argue that the land-use literature predominantly demonstrates a good understanding (with predictive power) of within-regime dynamics, while understanding of land-use regime shifts is limited to ex post facto explanations with limited predictive capability. The focus of land use change science needs to be redirected toward studying land-use regime shifts if we are to have any hope of making useful future projections. We present a preliminary framework for understanding land-use regime-shifts, using two case studies in Latin America as examples. We finally discuss the implications of our proposal for land change science.

Using Resource Economics to Anticipate Forest Land Use Change in the U.S. Mid-Atlantic Region

Treesearch

Peter J. Parks; Ian W. Hardie; Cheryl A. Tedder; David N. Wear

2000-01-01

Demands for forest, farm, and developed land are evolving in the U.S. mid-Atlantic region. The demand for land in developed uses, as well as demands for various forest and farm products are changing in response to population growth, demographic shifts, and market forces. As demand factors change so do relative land values. Land area in future forest, farm, and...

Biospheric feedback effects in a synchronously coupled model of human and Earth systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Thornton, Peter E.; Calvin, Katherine; Jones, Andrew D.

Fossil fuel combustion and land-use change are the first and second largest contributors to industrial-era increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, which is itself the largest driver of present-day climate change1. Projections of fossil fuel consumption and land-use change are thus fundamental inputs for coupled Earth system models (ESM) used to estimate the physical and biological consequences of future climate system forcing2,3. While empirical datasets are available to inform historical analyses4,5, assessments of future climate change have relied on projections of energy and land use based on energy economic models, constrained using historical and present-day data and forced with assumptionsmore » about future policy, land-use patterns, and socio-economic development trajectories6. Here we show that the influence of biospheric change – the integrated effect of climatic, ecological, and geochemical processes – on land ecosystems has a significant impact on energy, agriculture, and land-use projections for the 21st century. Such feedbacks have been ignored in previous ESM studies of future climate. We find that synchronous exposure of land ecosystem productivity in the economic system to biospheric change as it develops in an ESM results in a 10% reduction of land area used for crop cultivation; increased managed forest area and land carbon; a 15-20% decrease in global crop price; and a 17% reduction in fossil fuel emissions for a low-mid range forcing scenario7. These simulation results demonstrate that biospheric change can significantly alter primary human system forcings to the climate system. This synchronous two-way coupling approach removes inconsistencies in description of climate change between human and biosphere components of the coupled model, mitigating a major source of uncertainty identified in assessments of future climate projections8-10.« less

Evaluating Biodiversity Response toForecasted Land Use Change: A Case Study in the South Platte River Basin, Colorado

EPA Science Inventory

Effects of future land use change on watersheds have important management implications. Seamless, national-scale land-use-change scenarios for developed land were acquired from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios (lCLUS) project and...

Historical and projected coastal Louisiana land changes: 1978-2050

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barras, John; Beville, Shelly; Britsch, Del; Hartley, Stephen; Hawes, Suzanne; Johnston, James; Kemp, Paul; Kinler, Quin; Martucci, Antonio; Porthouse, Jon; Reed, Denise; Roy, Kevin; Sapkota, Sijan; Suhayda, Joseph

2003-01-01

An important component of the Louisiana Coastal Area (LCA) Comprehensive Coastwide Ecosystem Restoration Study is the projection of a “future condition” for the Louisiana coast if no further restoration measures were adopted. Such a projection gives an idea of what the future might hold without implementation of the LCA plan and provides a reference against which various ecosystem restoration proposals can be assessed as part of the planning process. One of the most fundamental measures of ecosystem degradation in coastal Louisiana has been the conversion of land (mostly emergent vegetated habitat) to open water. Thus, the projection of the future condition of the ecosystem must be based upon the determination of future patterns of land and water. To conduct these projections, a multidisciplinary LCA Land Change Study Group was formed that included individuals from agencies and academia with expertise in remote sensing, geographic information systems (GIS), ecosystem processes, and coastal land loss. Methods were based upon those used in prior studies for Coast 2050 (Louisiana Coastal Wetlands Conservation and Restoration Task Force [LCWCRTF] and the Wetlands Conservation and Restoration Authority 1998, 1999) and modified as described here to incorporate an improved understanding of coastal land loss and land gain processes with more advanced technical capabilities. The basic approach is to use historical data to assess recent trends in land loss and land gain and to project those changes into the future, taking into account spatial variations in the patterns and rates of land loss and land gain. This approach is accomplished by developing a base map, assessing and delineating areas of similar land change (polygons), and projecting changes into the future. This report describes the methodology and compares the current land change projection to previous projections.

Projecting Future Land Use Changes in West Africa Driven by Climate and Socioeconomic Factors: Uncertainties and Implications for Adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, G.; Ahmed, K. F.; You, L.

2015-12-01

Land use changes constitute an important regional climate change forcing in West Africa, a region of strong land-atmosphere coupling. At the same time, climate change can be an important driver for land use, although its importance relative to the impact of socio-economic factors may vary significant from region to region. This study compares the contributions of climate change and socioeconomic development to potential future changes of agricultural land use in West Africa and examines various sources of uncertainty using a land use projection model (LandPro) that accounts for the impact of socioeconomic drivers on the demand side and the impact of climate-induced crop yield changes on the supply side. Future crop yield changes were simulated by a process-based crop model driven with future climate projections from a regional climate model, and future changes of food demand is projected using a model for policy analysis of agricultural commodities and trade. The impact of human decision-making on land use was explicitly considered through multiple "what-if" scenarios to examine the range of uncertainties in projecting future land use. Without agricultural intensification, the climate-induced decrease of crop yield together with increase of food demand are found to cause a significant increase in agricultural land use at the expense of forest and grassland by the mid-century, and the resulting land use land cover changes are found to feed back to the regional climate in a way that exacerbates the negative impact of climate on crop yield. Analysis of results from multiple decision-making scenarios suggests that human adaptation characterized by science-informed decision making to minimize land use could be very effective in many parts of the region.

Anticipating Forest and Range Land Development in Central Oregon (USA) for Landscape Analysis, with an Example Application Involving Mule Deer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kline, Jeffrey D.; Moses, Alissa; Burcsu, Theresa

2010-05-01

Forest policymakers, public lands managers, and scientists in the Pacific Northwest (USA) seek ways to evaluate the landscape-level effects of policies and management through the multidisciplinary development and application of spatially explicit methods and models. The Interagency Mapping and Analysis Project (IMAP) is an ongoing effort to generate landscape-wide vegetation data and models to evaluate the integrated effects of disturbances and management activities on natural resource conditions in Oregon and Washington (USA). In this initial analysis, we characterized the spatial distribution of forest and range land development in a four-county pilot study region in central Oregon. The empirical model describes the spatial distribution of buildings and new building construction as a function of population growth, existing development, topography, land-use zoning, and other factors. We used the model to create geographic information system maps of likely future development based on human population projections to inform complementary landscape analyses underway involving vegetation, habitat, and wildfire interactions. In an example application, we use the model and resulting maps to show the potential impacts of future forest and range land development on mule deer ( Odocoileus hemionus) winter range. Results indicate significant development encroachment and habitat loss already in 2000 with development located along key migration routes and increasing through the projection period to 2040. The example application illustrates a simple way for policymakers and public lands managers to combine existing data and preliminary model outputs to begin to consider the potential effects of development on future landscape conditions.

Future habitat loss and extinctions driven by land-use change in biodiversity hotspots under four scenarios of climate-change mitigation.

PubMed

Jantz, Samuel M; Barker, Brian; Brooks, Thomas M; Chini, Louise P; Huang, Qiongyu; Moore, Rachel M; Noel, Jacob; Hurtt, George C

2015-08-01

Numerous species have been pushed into extinction as an increasing portion of Earth's land surface has been appropriated for human enterprise. In the future, global biodiversity will be affected by both climate change and land-use change, the latter of which is currently the primary driver of species extinctions. How societies address climate change will critically affect biodiversity because climate-change mitigation policies will reduce direct climate-change impacts; however, these policies will influence land-use decisions, which could have negative impacts on habitat for a substantial number of species. We assessed the potential impact future climate policy could have on the loss of habitable area in biodiversity hotspots due to associated land-use changes. We estimated past extinctions from historical land-use changes (1500-2005) based on the global gridded land-use data used for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report and habitat extent and species data for each hotspot. We then estimated potential extinctions due to future land-use changes under alternative climate-change scenarios (2005-2100). Future land-use changes are projected to reduce natural vegetative cover by 26-58% in the hotspots. As a consequence, the number of additional species extinctions, relative to those already incurred between 1500 and 2005, due to land-use change by 2100 across all hotspots ranged from about 220 to 21000 (0.2% to 16%), depending on the climate-change mitigation scenario and biological factors such as the slope of the species-area relationship and the contribution of wood harvest to extinctions. These estimates of potential future extinctions were driven by land-use change only and likely would have been higher if the direct effects of climate change had been considered. Future extinctions could potentially be reduced by incorporating habitat preservation into scenario development to reduce projected future land-use changes in hotspots or by lessening the impact of future land-use activities on biodiversity within hotspots. © 2015 Society for Conservation Biology.

Scenarios of land use change for agriculture: the role of Land Evaluation in improving model simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mereu, V.; Santini, M.; Dettori, G.; Muresu, P.; Spano, D.; Duce, P.

2009-12-01

Integrated scenarios of future climate and land use represent a useful input for impact studies about global changes. In particular, improving future land use simulations is essential for the agricultural sector, which is influenced by both biogeophysical constraints and human needs. Often land use change models are mainly based on statistical relationships between known land use distribution and biophysical or socio-economic factors, neglecting the necessary consideration of physical constraints that interact in making lands more or less capable for agriculture and suitable for supporting specific crops. In this study, a well developed land use change model (CLUE@CMCC) was suited for the Mediterranean basin case study, focusing on croplands. Several climate scenarios and future demands for croplands were combined to drive the model, while the same climate scenarios were used to more reliably allocate crops in the most suitable areas on the basis of Land Evaluation techniques. The probability for each map unit to sustain a specific crop, usually related to location characteristics, elasticity to conversion and competition among land use types, now includes specific crop-favoring location characteristics. Results, besides improving the consistency of the land use change model to allocate land for the future, can have the main feedback to suggest feasibility or reasonable thresholds to adjust land use demands during dynamic simulations.

Regional Climate Change Impact on Agricultural Land Use in West Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahmed, K. F.; Wang, G.; You, L.

2014-12-01

Agriculture is a key element of the human-induced land use land cover change (LULCC) that is influenced by climate and can potentially influence regional climate. Temperature and precipitation directly impact the crop yield (by controlling photosynthesis, respiration and other physiological processes) that then affects agricultural land use pattern. In feedback, the resulting changes in land use and land cover play an important role to determine the direction and magnitude of global, regional and local climate change by altering Earth's radiative equilibrium. The assessment of future agricultural land use is, therefore, of great importance in climate change study. In this study, we develop a prototype land use projection model and, using this model, project the changes to land use pattern and future land cover map accounting for climate-induced yield changes for major crops in West Africa. Among the inputs to the land use projection model are crop yield changes simulated by the crop model DSSAT, driven with the climate forcing data from the regional climate model RegCM4.3.4-CLM4.5, which features a projected decrease of future mean crop yield and increase of inter-annual variability. Another input to the land use projection model is the projected changes of food demand in the future. In a so-called "dumb-farmer scenario" without any adaptation, the combined effect of decrease in crop yield and increase in food demand will lead to a significant increase in agricultural land use in future years accompanied by a decrease in forest and grass area. Human adaptation through land use optimization in an effort to minimize agricultural expansion is found to have little impact on the overall areas of agricultural land use. While the choice of the General Circulation Model (GCM) to derive initial and boundary conditions for the regional climate model can be a source of uncertainty in projecting the future LULCC, results from sensitivity experiments indicate that the changes in land use pattern are robust.

AICUZ (Air Installation Compatible Use Zone) report

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

1982-09-01

The development and use of lands near U.S. Air Force base is of continuing concern to Air Force officials. It is recognized that the public must be protected from noise and other hazards of air base operations. At the same time it is recognized that lands near air bases often are highly attractive areas for development. Aircraft operations are likely to continue from Mather AFB for the indefinite future. Operations will include the T-37, T-43, B-52, KC-135 or replacement aircraft. The types of aircraft, flight tracks, frequency, and other characteristics will be continuously evaluated by Mather AFB to determine the effects on the AICUZ and the community. The AICUZ study was prepared to promote orderly and compatible land use around Mather AFB. Land use guidelines and noise measurement techniques are based on recent technology. Data from this study should be considered for incorporation into existing land use plans and ordinances of surrounding communities, and used as a basis for decisions on future land development requests.

Desired future conditions for pinon-juniper ecosystems

Treesearch

Douglas W. Shaw; Earl. F. Aldon; Carol LoSapio

1995-01-01

The purpose of this symposium was to assist the USDA Forest Service, other federal land management agencies, and the Arizona State Land Office in managing pinon-juniper ecosystems in the Southwest. Authors assessed the current state of knowledge about the pinon-juniper resource and helped develop desired future conditions.

Assessing Hydrologic Impacts of Future Land Cover Change Scenarios in the South Platte River Basin (CO, WY, & NE)

EPA Science Inventory

Long‐term land‐use and land cover change and their associated impacts pose critical challenges to sustaining vital hydrological ecosystem services for future generations. In this study, a methodology was developed on the San Pedro River Basin to characterize hydrologi...

Dynamic integration of land use changes in a hydrologic assessment of a rapidly developing Indian catchment.

PubMed

Wagner, Paul D; Bhallamudi, S Murty; Narasimhan, Balaji; Kantakumar, Lakshmi N; Sudheer, K P; Kumar, Shamita; Schneider, Karl; Fiener, Peter

2016-01-01

Rapid land use and land-cover changes strongly affect water resources. Particularly in regions that experience seasonal water scarcity, land use scenario assessments provide a valuable basis for the evaluation of possible future water shortages. The objective of this study is to dynamically integrate land use model projections with a hydrologic model to analyze potential future impacts of land use change on the water resources of a rapidly developing catchment upstream of Pune, India. For the first time projections from the urban growth and land use change model SLEUTH are employed as a dynamic input to the hydrologic model SWAT. By this means, impacts of land use changes on the water balance components are assessed for the near future (2009-2028) employing four different climate conditions (baseline, IPCC A1B, dry, wet). The land use change modeling results in an increase of urban area by +23.1% at the fringes of Pune and by +12.2% in the upper catchment, whereas agricultural land (-14.0% and -0.3%, respectively) and semi-natural area (-9.1% and -11.9%, respectively) decrease between 2009 and 2028. Under baseline climate conditions, these land use changes induce seasonal changes in the water balance components. Water yield particularly increases at the onset of monsoon (up to +11.0mm per month) due to increased impervious area, whereas evapotranspiration decreases in the dry season (up to -15.1mm per month) as a result of the loss of irrigated agricultural area. As the projections are made for the near future (2009-2028) land use change impacts are similar under IPCC A1B climate conditions. Only if more extreme dry years occur, an exacerbation of the land use change impacts can be expected. Particularly in rapidly changing environments an implementation of both dynamic land use change and climate change seems favorable to assess seasonal and gradual changes in the water balance. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Storylines of socio-economic and climatic drivers for land use and their hydrological impacts in alpine catchments - the STELLA project example

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strasser, Ulrich; Formayer, Herbert; Förster, Kristian; Marke, Thomas; Meißl, Gertraud; Schermer, Markus; Stotten, Friederike; Themessl, Matthias

2016-04-01

Future land use in Alpine catchments is controlled by the evolution of socio-economy and climate. Estimates of their coupled development should hence fulfill the principles of plausibility (be convincing) and consistency (be unambiguous). In the project STELLA, coupled future climate and land use scenarios are used as input in a hydrological modelling exercise with the physically-based, distributed water balance model WaSiM. The aim of the project is to quantify the effects of these two framing components on the future water cycle. The test site for the simulations is the catchment of the Brixentaler Ache in Tyrol/Austria (47.5°N, 322 km2). The so-called „storylines" of future coupled climate and forest/land use management, policy, social cooperation, tourism and economy have jointly been developed in an inter- and transdisciplinary assessment with local actors. The climate background is given by simulations for the A1B (temperature conditions like today in Merano/Italy, 46.7°N) and RCP 8.5 (temperature conditions like today in Bologna/Italy, 44.5°N) emission scenarios. These two climate scenarios were combined with three potential socio-economic developments („local"/„glocal"/ „superglobal"), each in a positive and in a negative specification. From these twelve storylines of coupled climate/land use future, a set of four storylines was selected to be used in transient hydrological modelling experiments. Historical simulations of the water balance for the test site reveal the pattern of land use being the most prominent factor for the spatial distribution of its components. A new prototype for a snow-canopy interaction simulation module provides explicit rates of intercepted and sublimated snow from the trees and stems of the different forest stands in the catchment. This new canopy module will be used to model the coupled climate/land use future storylines for the Brixental. The aim is to quantify the effects of climate change and land use on the water balance and streamflow, both separately and in their respective combination.

Assessing hydrologic impacts of future Land Change scenarios in the San Pedro River (U.S./Mexico)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kepner, W. G.; Burns, S.; Sidman, G.; Levick, L.; Goodrich, D. C.; Guertin, P.; Yee, W.; Scianni, M.

2012-12-01

An approach was developed to characterize the hydrologic impacts of urban expansion through time for the San Pedro River, a watershed of immense international importance that straddles the U.S./Mexico border. Future urban growth is a key driving force altering local and regional hydrology and is represented by decadal changes in housing density maps from 2010 to 2100 derived from the Integrated Climate and Land-Use Scenarios (ICLUS) database. ICLUS developed future housing density maps by adapting the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) social, economic, and demographic storylines to the conterminous United States. To characterize the hydrologic impacts of future growth, the housing density maps were reclassified to National Land Cover Database 2006 land cover classes and used to parameterize the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) using the Automated Geospatial Watershed Assessment (AGWA) tool. The presentation will report 1) the methodology for adapting the ICLUS data for use in AGWA as an approach to evaluate basin-wide impacts of development on water-quantity and -quality, 2) initial results of the application of the methodology, and 3) discuss implications of the analysis.

Managing pinon-juniper ecosystems for sustainability and social needs; proceedings of the symposium 1993 April 26-30; Sante Fe, New Mexico

Treesearch

Earl F. Aldon; Douglas W. Shaw

1993-01-01

The purpose of this symposium was to assist the USDA Forest Service, other federal land management agencies, and the New Mexico State Land Office in the future development and management of the pinon-juniper ecosystem in the Southwest. Authors assessed the current state of knowledge about the pinon-juniper resource and helped develop future research and management...

Preliminary Guidelines for Installation Product Line Land Management Suite (LMS) Product Developers

DTIC Science & Technology

2005-01-01

land use patterns might call a storm simulation model available as a CDF service to evaluate the ability of the pattern to maintain water quality ...Analysis GIS data Server Internal DIAS objects External DIAS objects External CDF services Fort Future DIAS Model GUI Figure 10. A Fort Future DIAS...31 iv ERDC/CERL TR-05-1 Are Programs that Analyze Data Being Developed as CDF Services

Implication of Agricultural Land Use Change on Regional Climate Projection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, G.; Ahmed, K. F.; You, L.

2015-12-01

Agricultural land use plays an important role in land-atmosphere interaction. Agricultural activity is one of the most important processes driving human-induced land use land cover change (LULCC) in a region. In addition to future socioeconomic changes, climate-induced changes in crop yield represent another important factor shaping agricultural land use. In feedback, the resulting LULCC influences the direction and magnitude of global, regional and local climate change by altering Earth's radiative equilibrium. Therefore, assessment of climate change impact on future agricultural land use and its feedback is of great importance in climate change study. In this study, to evaluate the feedback of projected land use changes to the regional climate in West Africa, we employed an asynchronous coupling between a regional climate model (RegCM) and a prototype land use projection model (LandPro). The LandPro model, which was developed to project the future change in agricultural land use and the resulting shift in natural vegetation in West Africa, is a spatially explicit model that can account for both climate and socioeconomic changes in projecting future land use changes. In the asynchronously coupled modeling framework, LandPro was run for every five years during the period of 2005-2050 accounting for climate-induced change in crop yield and socioeconomic changes to project the land use pattern by the mid-21st century. Climate data at 0.5˚ was derived from RegCM to drive the crop model DSSAT for each of the five-year periods to simulate crop yields, which was then provided as input data to LandPro. Subsequently, the land use land cover map required to run RegCM was updated every five years using the outputs from the LandPro simulations. Results from the coupled model simulations improve the understanding of climate change impact on future land use and the resulting feedback to regional climate.

Advancing coupled human-earth system models: The integrated Earth System Model Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomson, A. M.; Edmonds, J. A.; Collins, W.; Thornton, P. E.; Hurtt, G. C.; Janetos, A. C.; Jones, A.; Mao, J.; Chini, L. P.; Calvin, K. V.; Bond-Lamberty, B. P.; Shi, X.

2012-12-01

As human and biogeophysical models develop, opportunities for connections between them evolve and can be used to advance our understanding of human-earth systems interaction in the context of a changing climate. One such integration is taking place with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) and the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). A multi-disciplinary, multi-institution team has succeeded in integrating the GCAM integrated assessment model of human activity into CESM to dynamically represent the feedbacks between changing climate and human decision making, in the context of greenhouse gas mitigation policies. The first applications of this capability have focused on the feedbacks between climate change impacts on terrestrial ecosystem productivity and human decisions affecting future land use change, which are in turn connected to human decisions about energy systems and bioenergy production. These experiments have been conducted in the context of the RCP4.5 scenario, one of four pathways of future radiative forcing being used in CMIP5, which constrains future human-induced greenhouse gas emissions from energy and land activities to stabilize radiative forcing at 4.5 W/m2 (~650 ppm CO2 -eq) by 2100. When this pathway is run in GCAM with the climate feedback on terrestrial productivity from CESM, there are implications for both the land use and energy system changes required for stabilization. Early findings indicate that traditional definitions of radiative forcing used in scenario development are missing a critical component of the biogeophysical consequences of land use change and their contribution to effective radiative forcing. Initial full coupling of the two global models has important implications for how climate impacts on terrestrial ecosystems changes the dynamics of future land use change for agriculture and forestry, particularly in the context of a climate mitigation policy designed to reduce emissions from land use as well as energy systems. While these initial experiments have relied on offline coupling methodologies, current and future experiments are utilizing a single model code developed to integrate GCAM into CESM as a component of the land model. This unique capability facilitates many new applications to scientific questions arising from human and biogeophysical systems interaction. Future developments will further integrate the energy system decisions and greenhouse gas emissions as simulated in GCAM with the appropriate climate and land system components of CESM.

Generating local scale land use/cover change scenarios: case studies of high-risk mountain areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malek, Žiga; Glade, Thomas; Boerboom, Luc

2014-05-01

The relationship between land use/cover changes and consequences to human well-being is well acknowledged and has led to higher interest of both researchers and decision makers in driving forces and consequences of such changes. For example, removal of natural vegetation cover or urban expansion resulting in new elements at risk can increase hydro-meteorological risk. This is why it is necessary to study how the land use/cover could evolve in the future. Emphasis should especially be given to areas experiencing, or expecting, high rates of socio-economic change. A suitable approach to address these changes is scenario development; it offers exploring possible futures and the corresponding environmental consequences, and aids decision-making, as it enables to analyse possible options. Scenarios provide a creative methodology to depict possible futures, resulting from existing decisions, based on different assumptions of future socio-economic development. They have been used in various disciplines and on various scales, such as flood risk and soil erosion. Several studies have simulated future scenarios of land use/cover changes at a very high success rate, however usually these approaches are tailor made for specific case study areas and fit to available data. This study presents a multi-step scenario generation framework, which can be transferable to other local scale case study areas, taking into account the case study specific consequences of land use/cover changes. Through the use of experts' and decision-makers' knowledge, we aimed to develop a framework with the following characteristics: (1) it enables development of scenarios that are plausible, (2) it can overcome data inaccessibility, (3) it can address intangible and external driving forces of land use/cover change, and (4) it ensures transferability to other local scale case study areas with different land use/cover change processes and consequences. To achieve this, a set of different methods is applied including: qualitative methods such as interviews, group discussions and fuzzy cognitive mapping to identify land use/cover change processes, their driving forces and possible consequences, and final scenario generation; and geospatial methods such as GIS, geostatistics and environmental modeling in an environment for geoprocessing objects (Dinamica EGO) for spatial allocation of these scenarios. The methods were applied in the Italian Alps and the Romanian Carpathians. Both are mountainous areas, however they differ in terms of past and most likely future socio-economic development, and therefore consequent land use/cover changes. Whereas we focused on urban expansion due to tourism development in the Alps, we focused on possible deforestation trajectories in the Carpathians. In both areas, the recognized most significant driving forces were either not covered by accessible data, or were characterized as intangible. With the proposed framework we were able to generate futures scenarios despite these shortcomings, and enabling the transferability of the method.

Understanding land use change impacts on microclimate using Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Xia; Mitra, Chandana; Dong, Li; Yang, Qichun

2018-02-01

To explore potential climatic consequences of land cover change in the Kolkata Metropolitan Development area, we projected microclimate conditions in this area using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model driven by future land use scenarios. Specifically, we considered two land conversion scenarios including an urbanization scenario that all the wetlands and croplands would be converted to built-up areas, and an irrigation expansion scenario in which all wetlands and dry croplands would be replaced by irrigated croplands. Results indicated that land use and land cover (LULC) change would dramatically increase regional temperature in this area under the urbanization scenario, but expanded irrigation tended to have a cooling effect. In the urbanization scenario, precipitation center tended to move eastward and lead to increased rainfall in eastern parts of this region. Increased irrigation stimulated rainfall in central and eastern areas but reduced rainfall in southwestern and northwestern parts of the study area. This study also demonstrated that urbanization significantly reduced latent heat fluxes and albedo of land surface; while increased sensible heat flux changes following urbanization suggested that developed land surfaces mainly acted as heat sources. In this study, climate change projection not only predicts future spatiotemporal patterns of multiple climate factors, but also provides valuable insights into policy making related to land use management, water resource management, and agriculture management to adapt and mitigate future climate changes in this populous region.

Simulating future climate and land-use impacts on at-risk species in parks and protected areas

EPA Science Inventory

Alpine and sagebrush ecosystems in the mountain west are under threat from climate change and development. The wolverine, fisher, greater sage-grouse,and pygmy rabbit are iconic at-risk species in the region. We explore the impacts of future climate and land-use change on these s...

Monitoring Urban Land Cover/land Use Change in Algiers City Using Landsat Images (1987-2016)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bouchachi, B.; Zhong, Y.

2017-09-01

Monitoring the Urban Land Cover/Land Use change detection is important as one of the main driving forces of environmental change because Urbanization is the biggest changes in form of Land, resulting in a decrease in cultivated areas. Using remote sensing ability to solve land resources problems. The purpose of this research is to map the urban areas at different times to monitor and predict possible urban changes, were studied the annual growth urban land during the last 29 years in Algiers City. Improving the productiveness of long-term training in land mapping, were have developed an approach by the following steps: 1) pre-processing for improvement of image characteristics; 2) extract training sample candidates based on the developed methods; and 3) Derive maps and analyzed of Algiers City on an annual basis from 1987 to 2016 using a Supervised Classifier Support Vector Machine (SVMs). Our result shows that the strategy of urban land followed in the region of Algiers City, developed areas mostly were extended to East, West, and South of Central Regions. The urban growth rate is linked with National Office of Statistics data. Future studies are required to understand the impact of urban rapid lands on social, economy and environmental sustainability, it will also close the gap in data of urbanism available, especially on the lack of reliable data, environmental and urban planning for each municipality in Algiers, develop experimental models to predict future land changes with statistically significant confidence.

Land Cover and Climate Change May Limit Invasiveness of Rhododendron ponticum in Wales.

PubMed

Manzoor, Syed A; Griffiths, Geoffrey; Iizuka, Kotaro; Lukac, Martin

2018-01-01

Invasive plant species represent a serious threat to biodiversity precipitating a sustained global effort to eradicate or at least control the spread of this phenomenon. Current distribution ranges of many invasive species are likely to be modified in the future by land cover and climate change. Thus, invasion management can be made more effective by forecasting the potential spread of invasive species. Rhododendron ponticum (L.) is an aggressive invasive species which appears well suited to western areas of the UK. We made use of MAXENT modeling environment to develop a current distribution model and to assess the likely effects of land cover and climatic conditions (LCCs) on the future distribution of this species in the Snowdonia National park in Wales. Six global circulation models (GCMs) and two representative concentration pathways (RCPs), together with a land cover simulation for 2050 were used to investigate species' response to future environmental conditions. Having considered a range of environmental variables as predictors and carried out the AICc-based model selection, we find that under all LCCs considered in this study, the range of R. ponticum in Wales is likely to contract in the future. Land cover and topographic variables were found to be the most important predictors of the distribution of R. ponticum . This information, together with maps indicating future distribution trends will aid the development of mitigation practices to control R. ponticum .

Using the FORE-SCE model to project land-cover change in the southeastern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sohl, Terry; Sayler, Kristi L.

2008-01-01

A wide variety of ecological applications require spatially explicit current and projected land-use and land-cover data. The southeastern United States has experienced massive land-use change since European settlement and continues to experience extremely high rates of forest cutting, significant urban development, and changes in agricultural land use. Forest-cover patterns and structure are projected to change dramatically in the southeastern United States in the next 50 years due to population growth and demand for wood products [Wear, D.N., Greis, J.G. (Eds.), 2002. Southern Forest Resource Assessment. General Technical Report SRS-53. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Southern Research Station, Asheville, NC, 635 pp]. Along with our climate partners, we are examining the potential effects of southeastern U.S. land-cover change on regional climate. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Land Cover Trends project is analyzing contemporary (1973-2000) land-cover change in the conterminous United States, providing ecoregion-by-ecoregion estimates of the rates of change, descriptive transition matrices, and changes in landscape metrics. The FORecasting SCEnarios of future land-cover (FORE-SCE) model used Land Cover Trends data and theoretical, statistical, and deterministic modeling techniques to project future land-cover change through 2050 for the southeastern United States. Prescriptions for future proportions of land cover for this application were provided by ecoregion-based extrapolations of historical change. Logistic regression was used to develop relationships between suspected drivers of land-cover change and land cover, resulting in the development of probability-of-occurrence surfaces for each unique land-cover type. Forest stand age was initially established with Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) data and tracked through model iterations. The spatial allocation procedure placed patches of new land cover on the landscape until the scenario prescriptions were met, using measured Land Cover Trends data to guide patch characteristics and the probability surfaces to guide placement. The approach provides an efficient method for extrapolating historical land-cover trends and is amenable to the incorporation of more detailed and focused studies for the establishment of scenario prescriptions.

Integrating future scenario‐based crop expansion and crop conditions to map switchgrass biofuel potential in eastern Nebraska, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gu, Yingxin; Wylie, Bruce K.

2018-01-01

Switchgrass (Panicum virgatum) has been evaluated as one potential source for cellulosic biofuel feedstocks. Planting switchgrass in marginal croplands and waterway buffers can reduce soil erosion, improve water quality, and improve regional ecosystem services (i.e. it serves as a potential carbon sink). In previous studies, we mapped high risk marginal croplands and highly erodible cropland buffers that are potentially suitable for switchgrass development, which would improve ecosystem services and minimally impact food production. In this study, we advance our previous study results and integrate future crop expansion information to develop a switchgrass biofuel potential ensemble map for current and future croplands in eastern Nebraska. The switchgrass biomass productivity and carbon benefits (i.e. NEP: net ecosystem production) for the identified biofuel potential ensemble areas were quantified. The future scenario‐based (‘A1B’) land use and land cover map for 2050, the US Geological Survey crop type and Compound Topographic Index (CTI) maps, and long‐term (1981–2010) averaged annual precipitation data were used to identify future crop expansion regions that are suitable for switchgrass development. Results show that 2528 km2 of future crop expansion regions (~3.6% of the study area) are potentially suitable for switchgrass development. The total estimated biofuel potential ensemble area (including cropland buffers, marginal croplands, and future crop expansion regions) is 4232 km2 (~6% of the study area), potentially producing 3.52 million metric tons of switchgrass biomass per year. Converting biofuel ensemble regions to switchgrass leads to potential carbon sinks (the total NEP for biofuel potential areas is 0.45 million metric tons C) and is environmentally sustainable. Results from this study improve our understanding of environmental conditions and ecosystem services of current and future cropland systems in eastern Nebraska and provide useful information to land managers to make land use decisions regarding switchgrass development.

Extending helicopter operations to meet future integrated transportation needs.

PubMed

Stanton, Neville A; Plant, Katherine L; Roberts, Aaron P; Harvey, Catherine; Thomas, T Glyn

2016-03-01

Helicopters have the potential to be an integral part of the future transport system. They offer a means of rapid transit in an overly populated transport environment. However, one of the biggest limitations on rotary wing flight is their inability to fly in degraded visual conditions in the critical phases of approach and landing. This paper presents a study that developed and evaluated a Head up Display (HUD) to assist rotary wing pilots by extending landing to degraded visual conditions. The HUD was developed with the assistance of the Cognitive Work Analysis method as an approach for analysing the cognitive work of landing the helicopter. The HUD was tested in a fixed based flight simulator with qualified helicopter pilots. A qualitative analysis to assess situation awareness and workload found that the HUD enabled safe landing in degraded conditions whilst simultaneously enhancing situation awareness and reducing workload. Continued development in this area has the potential to extend the operational capability of helicopters in the future. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd and The Ergonomics Society. All rights reserved.

Land change in the Central Corn Belt Plains Ecoregion and hydrologic consequences in developed areas: 1939-2000

USGS Publications Warehouse

Karstensen, Krista; Shaver, David; Alexander, Randal; Over, Thomas; Soong, David T.

2013-01-01

This report emphasizes the importance of a multi-disciplinary understanding of how land use and land cover can affect regional hydrology by collaboratively investigating how increases in developed land area may affect stream discharge by evaluating land-cover change from 1939 to 2000, urban housing density data from 1940 to 2010, and changes in annual peak streamflow from water years 1945 to 2009. The results and methods crosscut two mission areas of the U.S. Geological Survey (Climate and Land Use, Water) and can be used to better assess developed land change and hydrologic consequences, which can be used to better assess future management and mitigation strategies.

Predicted future forest- and farmland development in western Oregon with and without land use zoning in effect.

Treesearch

Jeffrey D. Kline

2005-01-01

Oregon’s Land Use Planning Program is often cited as an exemplary approach to protecting forest and farm lands from development. In November 2004, Oregon voters approved a ballot measure—Measure 37—to require the state to compensate landowners for any property value losses resulting from land use regulations, including those adopted under the program. Because...

Projected land use changes impacts on water yields in the karst mountain areas of China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lang, Yanqing; Song, Wei; Deng, Xiangzheng

2018-04-01

Human-induced land use changes over short time scales have significant impacts on water yield, especially in China because of the rapid social economic development. As the biggest developing country of the world, China's economy is expected to continuously grow with a high speed in the next few decades. Therefore, what kind of land use changes will occur in the future in China? How these changes will influence the water yields? To address this issue, we assessed the water yields in the karst mountain area of China during the periods of 1990-2010 and 2010-2030 by coupling an Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model and a Conversion of Land Use and its Effects (CLUE) model. Three different land use scenarios i.e. natural growth, economic development, and ecological protection, were developed in 2030 using the CLUE model. It was concluded that, given land use changes between 1990 and 2010, total water yields in the karst mountain area are characterized by a trend towards fluctuating reduction. However, total water yields of 2030 in the economic development scenario revealed an increase of 1.25% compared to the actual water yields in 2010. The economy development in karst mountain areas of China in the future has a slight positive influence on water yields.

Integrating global socio-economic influences into a regional land use change model for China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Xia; Gao, Qiong; Peng, Changhui; Cui, Xuefeng; Liu, Yinghui; Jiang, Li

2014-03-01

With rapid economic development and urbanization, land use in China has experienced huge changes in recent years; and this will probably continue in the future. Land use problems in China are urgent and need further study. Rapid land-use change and economic development make China an ideal region for integrated land use change studies, particularly the examination of multiple factors and global-regional interactions in the context of global economic integration. This paper presents an integrated modeling approach to examine the impact of global socio-economic processes on land use changes at a regional scale. We develop an integrated model system by coupling a simple global socio-economic model (GLOBFOOD) and regional spatial allocation model (CLUE). The model system is illustrated with an application to land use in China. For a given climate change, population growth, and various socio-economic situations, a global socio-economic model simulates the impact of global market and economy on land use, and quantifies changes of different land use types. The land use spatial distribution model decides the type of land use most appropriate in each spatial grid by employing a weighted suitability index, derived from expert knowledge about the ecosystem state and site conditions. A series of model simulations will be conducted and analyzed to demonstrate the ability of the integrated model to link global socioeconomic factors with regional land use changes in China. The results allow an exploration of the future dynamics of land use and landscapes in China.

A long-term forecast analysis on worldwide land uses.

PubMed

Zhang, Wenjun; Qi, Yanhong; Zhang, Zhiguo

2006-08-01

More and more lands worldwide are being cultivated for food production while forests are disappearing at an unprecedented rate. This paper aims to make a long-term forecast on land uses worldwide and provide the public, researchers, and government officials with a clear profile for land uses in the future. Data of land uses since 1961 were used to fit historical trajectories and make the forecast. The results show that trajectories of land areas can be well fitted with univariate linear regressions. The forecasts of land uses during the coming 25 years were given in detail. Areas of agricultural land, arable land, and permanent pasture land worldwide would increase by 6.6%, 7.2%, and 6.3% respectively in the year 2030 as compared to the current areas. Permanent crops land area all over the world is forecasted to increase 0.64% by 2030. By the year 2030 the areas of forests and woodland, nonarable and nonpermanent land worldwide would decrease by 2.4% and 0.9% against the current areas. All other land area in the world would dramatically decline by 6.4% by the year 2030. Overall the land area related to agriculture would tend to decrease in developed countries, industrialized countries, Europe, and North and Central America. The agriculture related land area would considerably increase in developing countries, least developed countries, low-income countries, Asia, Africa, South America, etc. Developing countries hold larger total land area than developed countries. Dramatic and continuous growth in agricultural land area of developing countries would largely contribute to the expected growth of world agricultural land area in the coming years. Population explosion, food shortage and poverty in the world, especially in developing countries, together caused the excessive cultivation of land for agricultural uses in the past years. Increasing agricultural land area exacerbates the climate changes and degradation of environment. How to limit the growth of human population is a key problem for reducing agricultural land expansion. Development and use of high-yielding and high-quality crop and animal varieties, diversification of human food sources, and technical and financial assistance to developing countries from developed countries, should also be implemented and strengthened in the future in order to slow down or even reverse the increase trend of agricultural land area. Sustainable agriculture is the effective way to stabilize the agricultural land area without food shortage. Through various techniques and measures, sustainable agriculture may meet the food production goals with minimum environmental risk. Public awareness and interest in sustainable agriculture will help realize and ease the increasing stress from agricultural land expansion.

Rewilding in England and Wales: A review of recent developments, issues, and concerns

Treesearch

Steve Carver

2007-01-01

This paper reviews the emerging wild land policy in the United Kingdom-in England and Wales in particular-and the environmental, social, political and economic drivers that make extensive protected wild land areas a possibility in what is otherwise a crowded and intensively developed island nation. Various future scenarios for wild land and rewilding in England and...

Past and predicted future changes in the land cover of the Upper Mississippi River floodplain, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

De Jager, N. R.; Rohweder, J.J.; Nelson, J.C.

2013-01-01

This study provides one historical and two alternative future contexts for evaluating land cover modifications within the Upper Mississippi River (UMR) floodplain. Given previously documented changes in land use, river engineering, restoration efforts and hydro-climatic changes within the UMR basin and floodplain, we wanted to know which of these changes are the most important determinants of current and projected future floodplain land cover. We used Geographic Information System data covering approximately 37% of the UMR floodplain (3232 km2) for ca 1890 (pre-lock and dam) and three contemporary periods (1975, 1989 and 2000) across which river restoration actions have increased and hydro-climatic changes have occurred. We further developed two 50-year future scenarios from the spatially dependent land cover transitions that occurred from 1975 to 1989 (scenario A) and from 1989 to 2000 (scenario B) using Markov models.Land cover composition of the UMR did not change significantly from 1975 to 2000, indicating that current land cover continues to reflect historical modifications that support agricultural production and commercial navigation despite some floodplain restoration efforts and variation in river discharge. Projected future land cover composition based on scenario A was not significantly different from the land cover for 1975, 1989 or 2000 but was different from the land cover of scenario B, which was also different from all other periods. Scenario B forecasts transition of some forest and marsh habitat to open water by the year 2050 for some portions of the northern river and projects that some agricultural lands will transition to open water in the southern portion of the river. Future floodplain management and restoration planning efforts in the UMR should consider the potential consequences of continued shifts in hydro-climatic conditions that may occur as a result of climate change and the potential effects on floodplain land cover.

Understanding land use change impacts on microclimate using Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model

DOE PAGES

Li, Xia; Mitra, Chandana; Dong, Li; ...

2017-02-02

In order to explore potential climatic consequences of land cover change in the Kolkata Metropolitan Development area, we projected microclimate conditions in this area using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model driven by future land use scenarios. Specifically, we considered two land conversion scenarios including an urbanization scenario that all the wetlands and croplands would be converted to built-up areas, and an irrigation expansion scenario in which all wetlands and dry croplands would be replaced by irrigated croplands. Our results indicated that land use and land cover (LULC) change would dramatically increase regional temperature in this area under themore » urbanization scenario, but expanded irrigation tended to have a cooling effect. In the urbanization scenario, precipitation center tended to move eastward and lead to increased rainfall in eastern parts of this region. Increased irrigation stimulated rainfall in central and eastern areas but reduced rainfall in southwestern and northwestern parts of the study area. Our study also demonstrated that urbanization significantly reduced latent heat fluxes and albedo of land surface; while increased sensible heat flux changes following urbanization suggested that developed land surfaces mainly acted as heat sources. In this study, climate change projection not only predicts future spatiotemporal patterns of multiple climate factors, but also provides valuable insights into policy making related to land use management, water resource management, and agriculture management to adapt and mitigate future climate changes in this populous region.« less

Understanding land use change impacts on microclimate using Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Li, Xia; Mitra, Chandana; Dong, Li

In order to explore potential climatic consequences of land cover change in the Kolkata Metropolitan Development area, we projected microclimate conditions in this area using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model driven by future land use scenarios. Specifically, we considered two land conversion scenarios including an urbanization scenario that all the wetlands and croplands would be converted to built-up areas, and an irrigation expansion scenario in which all wetlands and dry croplands would be replaced by irrigated croplands. Our results indicated that land use and land cover (LULC) change would dramatically increase regional temperature in this area under themore » urbanization scenario, but expanded irrigation tended to have a cooling effect. In the urbanization scenario, precipitation center tended to move eastward and lead to increased rainfall in eastern parts of this region. Increased irrigation stimulated rainfall in central and eastern areas but reduced rainfall in southwestern and northwestern parts of the study area. Our study also demonstrated that urbanization significantly reduced latent heat fluxes and albedo of land surface; while increased sensible heat flux changes following urbanization suggested that developed land surfaces mainly acted as heat sources. In this study, climate change projection not only predicts future spatiotemporal patterns of multiple climate factors, but also provides valuable insights into policy making related to land use management, water resource management, and agriculture management to adapt and mitigate future climate changes in this populous region.« less

Understanding land use change impacts on microclimate using Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Li, Xia; Mitra, Chandana; Dong, Li

To explore potential climatic consequences of land cover change in the Kolkata Metropolitan Development area, we projected microclimate conditions in this area using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model driven by future land use scenarios. Specifically, we considered two land conversion scenarios including an urbanization scenario that all the wetlands and croplands would be converted to built-up areas, and an irrigation expansion scenario in which all wetlands and dry croplands would be replaced by irrigated croplands. Results indicated that land use and land cover (LULC) change would dramatically increase regional temperature in this area under the urbanization scenario, butmore » expanded irrigation tended to have a cooling effect. In the urbanization scenario, precipitation center tended to move eastward and lead to increased rainfall in eastern parts of this region. Increased irrigation stimulated rainfall in central and eastern areas but reduced rainfall in southwestern and northwestern parts of the study area. This study also demonstrated that urbanization significantly reduced latent heat fluxes and albedo of land surface; while increased sensible heat flux changes following urbanization suggested that developed land surfaces mainly acted as heat sources. In this study, climate change projection not only predicts future spatiotemporal patterns of multiple climate factors, but also provides valuable insights into policy making related to land use management, water resource management, and agriculture management to adapt and mitigate future climate changes in this populous region. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.« less

Development of Lidar Sensor Systems for Autonomous Safe Landing on Planetary Bodies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Amzajerdian, Farzin; Pierottet, Diego F.; Petway, Larry B.; Vanek, Michael D.

2010-01-01

Lidar has been identified by NASA as a key technology for enabling autonomous safe landing of future robotic and crewed lunar landing vehicles. NASA LaRC has been developing three laser/lidar sensor systems under the ALHAT project. The capabilities of these Lidar sensor systems were evaluated through a series of static tests using a calibrated target and through dynamic tests aboard helicopters and a fixed wing aircraft. The airborne tests were performed over Moon-like terrain in the California and Nevada deserts. These tests provided the necessary data for the development of signal processing software, and algorithms for hazard detection and navigation. The tests helped identify technology areas needing improvement and will also help guide future technology advancement activities.

A stochastic Forest Fire Model for future land cover scenarios assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

D'Andrea, M.; Fiorucci, P.; Holmes, T. P.

2010-10-01

Land cover is affected by many factors including economic development, climate and natural disturbances such as wildfires. The ability to evaluate how fire regimes may alter future vegetation, and how future vegetation may alter fire regimes, would assist forest managers in planning management actions to be carried out in the face of anticipated socio-economic and climatic change. In this paper, we present a method for calibrating a cellular automata wildfire regime simulation model with actual data on land cover and wildfire size-frequency. The method is based on the observation that many forest fire regimes, in different forest types and regions, exhibit power law frequency-area distributions. The standard Drossel-Schwabl cellular automata Forest Fire Model (DS-FFM) produces simulations which reproduce this observed pattern. However, the standard model is simplistic in that it considers land cover to be binary - each cell either contains a tree or it is empty - and the model overestimates the frequency of large fires relative to actual landscapes. Our new model, the Modified Forest Fire Model (MFFM), addresses this limitation by incorporating information on actual land use and differentiating among various types of flammable vegetation. The MFFM simulation model was tested on forest types with Mediterranean and sub-tropical fire regimes. The results showed that the MFFM was able to reproduce structural fire regime parameters for these two regions. Further, the model was used to forecast future land cover. Future research will extend this model to refine the forecasts of future land cover and fire regime scenarios under climate, land use and socio-economic change.

Future scenarios of land change based on empirical data and demographic trends

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Wilson, Tamara; Sharygin, Ethan; Sherba, Jason

2017-01-01

Changes in land use and land cover (LULC) have important and fundamental interactions with the global climate system. Top-down global scale projections of land use change have been an important component of climate change research; however, their utility at local to regional scales is often limited. The goal of this study was to develop an approach for projecting changes in LULC based on land use histories and demographic trends. We developed a set of stochastic, empirical-based projections of LULC change for the state of California, for the period 2001–2100. Land use histories and demographic trends were used to project a “business-as-usual” (BAU) scenario and three population growth scenarios. For the BAU scenario, we projected developed lands would more than double by 2100. When combined with cultivated areas, we projected a 28% increase in anthropogenic land use by 2100. As a result, natural lands were projected to decline at a rate of 139 km2 yr−1; grasslands experienced the largest net decline, followed by shrublands and forests. The amount of cultivated land was projected to decline by approximately 10%; however, the relatively modest change masked large shifts between annual and perennial crop types. Under the three population scenarios, developed lands were projected to increase 40–90% by 2100. Our results suggest that when compared to the BAU projection, scenarios based on demographic trends may underestimate future changes in LULC. Furthermore, regardless of scenario, the spatial pattern of LULC change was likely to have the greatest negative impacts on rangeland ecosystems.

Future Scenarios of Land Change Based on Empirical Data and Demographic Trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Wilson, Tamara S.; Sharygin, Ethan; Sherba, Jason T.

2017-11-01

Changes in land use and land cover (LULC) have important and fundamental interactions with the global climate system. Top-down global scale projections of land use change have been an important component of climate change research; however, their utility at local to regional scales is often limited. The goal of this study was to develop an approach for projecting changes in LULC based on land use histories and demographic trends. We developed a set of stochastic, empirical-based projections of LULC change for the state of California, for the period 2001-2100. Land use histories and demographic trends were used to project a "business-as-usual" (BAU) scenario and three population growth scenarios. For the BAU scenario, we projected developed lands would more than double by 2100. When combined with cultivated areas, we projected a 28% increase in anthropogenic land use by 2100. As a result, natural lands were projected to decline at a rate of 139 km2 yr-1; grasslands experienced the largest net decline, followed by shrublands and forests. The amount of cultivated land was projected to decline by approximately 10%; however, the relatively modest change masked large shifts between annual and perennial crop types. Under the three population scenarios, developed lands were projected to increase 40-90% by 2100. Our results suggest that when compared to the BAU projection, scenarios based on demographic trends may underestimate future changes in LULC. Furthermore, regardless of scenario, the spatial pattern of LULC change was likely to have the greatest negative impacts on rangeland ecosystems.

Land use change modeling through scenario-based cellular automata Markov: improving spatial forecasting.

PubMed

Jahanishakib, Fatemeh; Mirkarimi, Seyed Hamed; Salmanmahiny, Abdolrassoul; Poodat, Fatemeh

2018-05-08

Efficient land use management requires awareness of past changes, present actions, and plans for future developments. Part of these requirements is achieved using scenarios that describe a future situation and the course of changes. This research aims to link scenario results with spatially explicit and quantitative forecasting of land use development. To develop land use scenarios, SMIC PROB-EXPERT and MORPHOL methods were used. It revealed eight scenarios as the most probable. To apply the scenarios, we considered population growth rate and used a cellular automata-Markov chain (CA-MC) model to implement the quantified changes described by each scenario. For each scenario, a set of landscape metrics was used to assess the ecological integrity of land use classes in terms of fragmentation and structural connectivity. The approach enabled us to develop spatial scenarios of land use change and detect their differences for choosing the most integrated landscape pattern in terms of landscape metrics. Finally, the comparison between paired forecasted scenarios based on landscape metrics indicates that scenarios 1-1, 2-2, 3-2, and 4-1 have a more suitable integrity. The proposed methodology for developing spatial scenarios helps executive managers to create scenarios with many repetitions and customize spatial patterns in real world applications and policies.

Projecting land-use and land cover change in a subtropical urban watershed

Treesearch

John J. Lagrosa IV; Wayne C. Zipperer; Michael G. Andreu

2018-01-01

Urban landscapes are heterogeneous mosaics that develop via significant land-use and land cover (LULC) change. Current LULC models project future landscape patterns, but generally avoid urban landscapes due to heterogeneity. To project LULC change for an urban landscape, we parameterize an established LULC model (Dyna-CLUE) under baseline conditions (continued current...

76 FR 10937 - Public Notice for Waiver of Aeronautical Land-Use Assurance Holmes County Airport, Millersburg, OH

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-02-28

... Aeronautical Land-Use Assurance Holmes County Airport, Millersburg, OH AGENCY: Federal Aviation Administration... Administration (FAA) is considering a proposal to change a portion of the airport from aeronautical use to non... is vacant, not required for future development, safety, or compatible land use. The intended land use...

77 FR 7600 - Notice of Segregation of Public Lands in the State of Arizona for the Restoration Design Energy...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-02-13

...--Agua Caliente Solar Energy Zone in Yuma County, AZ AGENCY: Bureau of Land Management, Interior. ACTION... of protecting potential sites for future solar energy development while they are being analyzed in... public lands corresponds with the analysis of these same public lands as a proposed Solar Energy Zone...

Modelling regional cropping patterns under scenarios of climate and socio-economic change in Hungary.

PubMed

Li, Sen; Juhász-Horváth, Linda; Pintér, László; Rounsevell, Mark D A; Harrison, Paula A

2018-05-01

Impacts of socio-economic, political and climatic change on agricultural land systems are inherently uncertain. The role of regional and local-level actors is critical in developing effective policy responses that accommodate such uncertainty in a flexible and informed way across governance levels. This study identified potential regional challenges in arable land use systems, which may arise from climate and socio-economic change for two counties in western Hungary: Veszprém and Tolna. An empirically-grounded, agent-based model was developed from an extensive farmer household survey about local land use practices. The model was used to project future patterns of arable land use under four localised, stakeholder-driven scenarios of plausible future socio-economic and climate change. The results show strong differences in farmers' behaviour and current agricultural land use patterns between the two regions, highlighting the need to implement focused policy at the regional level. For instance, policy that encourages local food security may need to support improvements in the capacity of farmers to adapt to physical constraints in Veszprém and farmer access to social capital and environmental awareness in Tolna. It is further suggested that the two regions will experience different challenges to adaptation under possible future conditions (up to 2100). For example, Veszprém was projected to have increased fallow land under a scenario with high inequality, ineffective institutions and higher-end climate change, implying risks of land abandonment. By contrast, Tolna was projected to have a considerable decline in major cereals under a scenario assuming a de-globalising future with moderate climate change, inferring challenges to local food self-sufficiency. The study provides insight into how socio-economic and physical factors influence the selection of crop rotation plans by farmers in western Hungary and how farmer behaviour may affect future risks to agricultural land systems under environmental change. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Forest landscape mosaics: Disturbance, restoration, and management at times of global change

Treesearch

Kalev Jogiste; Bengt Gunnar Jonsson; Timo Kuuluvainen; Sylvie Gauthier; W. Keith Moser

2015-01-01

Potential effects of hypothesized anthropogenic climate change are raising concerns about the sustainability of development in terms of both people and the rest of the environment. Land use change at the global scale presents many challenges for the research community. Past land use has a definite effect on future ecosystems, but it is challenging to predict future...

Land Recycling: from Science to Practice - A Sustainable Development of Urban Areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Romanowicz, A.

2015-12-01

Member States (MS) of the European Union have experience significant urban sprawl in the last 3 decades. The urban sprawl was driven mainly by internal (MS or EU) or external migration but also by EU policies (including funds and projects) and by changes in life style (e.g. moving away from cities; second homes). This presentation will aim at showing a number of EU wide analysis on: aging population, depopulation of some of the EU regions; agricultural production and scenarios projections of thereof. Various EU funded projects and programs have analyzed ways how future cities and how EU future land use could developed. Number of those solutions where further investigated with case studies/small scale implementations. However, in recent years the 2012 EU road map to resource efficiency and UN Sustainable Development Goals have called respectively for 'no net land take by 2050' and land neutrality. Thus, the process of implementing innovative solutions for land use has started and some of the cities and regions are well ahead in moving towards XXI century society. In order to streamline/share knowledge and steer EU wide discussion on this the European Commission in its road map to resource efficiency announced a Communication on land as a resource. This presentation will attempt to synthesize current discussion on the topic of 'land as a resource' and include examples of implemented innovative solutions for aging population, land recycling for urban developments and green spaces within the current EU policy context. Finally, some appreciation of the adopted UN Sustainable Development Goals regarding land and soil from the EU perspective will be given.

Harmonization of global land-use scenarios for the period 850-2100

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hurtt, G. C.; Chini, L. P.; Sahajpal, R.; Frolking, S. E.; Fisk, J.; Bodirsky, B.; Calvin, K. V.; Fujimori, S.; Goldewijk, K.; Hasegawa, T.; Havlik, P.; Heinimann, A.; Humpenöder, F.; Kaplan, J. O.; Krisztin, T.; Lawrence, D. M.; Lawrence, P.; Mertz, O.; Popp, A.; Riahi, K.; Stehfest, E.; van Vuuren, D.; de Waal, L.; Zhang, X.

2016-12-01

Human land-use activities have resulted in large changes to the biogeochemical and biophysical properties of the Earth surface, with resulting implications for climate. In the future, land-use activities are likely to expand and/or intensify further to meet growing demands for food, fiber, and energy. As part of the World Climate Research Program Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), the international community is developing the next generation of advanced Earth System Models (ESM) able to estimate the combined effects of human activities (e.g. land use and fossil fuel emissions) on the carbon-climate system. In addition, a new set of historical data based on HYDE, and multiple alternative scenarios of the future (2015-2100) from Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) teams, are being developed as input for these models. Here we present results from the Land-use Harmonization 2 (LUH2) project, with the goal to smoothly connect updated historical reconstructions of land-use with new future projections in the format required for ESMs. The harmonization strategy estimates the fractional land-use patterns, underlying land-use transitions, and key agricultural management information, and resulting secondary lands annually while minimizing the differences between the end of the historical reconstruction and IAM initial conditions, and working to preserve changes depicted by the IAMs in the future. The new approach builds off the approach from CMIP5, and is provided at higher resolution (0.25x0.25 degree), over longer time domain (850-2100), with more detail (including multiple crop and pasture types and associated management), using more inputs (including Landsat data), updated algorithms (wood harvest and shifting cultivation), and is assessed via a new diagnostic package. The new LUH2 products contain >50 times the information content of the datasets used in CMIP5, and are designed to enable new and improved estimates of the combined effects of land-use on the global carbon-climate system.

Development of a framework for quantifying the environmental impacts of urban development and construction practices.

PubMed

Li, Ke; Zhang, Peng; Crittenden, John C; Guhathakurta, Subhrajit; Chen, Yongsheng; Fernando, Harindra; Sawhney, Anil; McCartney, Peter; Grimm, Nancy; Kahhat, Ramzy; Joshi, Himanshu; Konjevod, Goran; Choi, Yu-Jin; Fonseca, Ernesto; Allenby, Braden; Gerrity, Daniel; Torrens, Paul M

2007-07-15

To encourage sustainable development, engineers and scientists need to understand the interactions among social decision-making, development and redevelopment, land, energy and material use, and their environmental impacts. In this study, a framework that connects these interactions was proposed to guide more sustainable urban planning and construction practices. Focusing on the rapidly urbanizing setting of Phoenix, Arizona, complexity models and deterministic models were assembled as a metamodel, which is called Sustainable Futures 2100 and were used to predict land use and development, to quantify construction material demands, to analyze the life cycle environmental impacts, and to simulate future ground-level ozone formation.

Land use planning and wildfire: development policies influence future probability of housing loss

USGS Publications Warehouse

Syphard, Alexandra D.; Massada, Avi Bar; Butsic, Van; Keeley, Jon E.

2013-01-01

Increasing numbers of homes are being destroyed by wildfire in the wildland-urban interface. With projections of climate change and housing growth potentially exacerbating the threat of wildfire to homes and property, effective fire-risk reduction alternatives are needed as part of a comprehensive fire management plan. Land use planning represents a shift in traditional thinking from trying to eliminate wildfires, or even increasing resilience to them, toward avoiding exposure to them through the informed placement of new residential structures. For land use planning to be effective, it needs to be based on solid understanding of where and how to locate and arrange new homes. We simulated three scenarios of future residential development and projected landscape-level wildfire risk to residential structures in a rapidly urbanizing, fire-prone region in southern California. We based all future development on an econometric subdivision model, but we varied the emphasis of subdivision decision-making based on three broad and common growth types: infill, expansion, and leapfrog. Simulation results showed that decision-making based on these growth types, when applied locally for subdivision of individual parcels, produced substantial landscape-level differences in pattern, location, and extent of development. These differences in development, in turn, affected the area and proportion of structures at risk from burning in wildfires. Scenarios with lower housing density and larger numbers of small, isolated clusters of development, i.e., resulting from leapfrog development, were generally predicted to have the highest predicted fire risk to the largest proportion of structures in the study area, and infill development was predicted to have the lowest risk. These results suggest that land use planning should be considered an important component to fire risk management and that consistently applied policies based on residential pattern may provide substantial benefits for future risk reduction.

78 FR 61373 - Animal Center Master Plan Record of Decision

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-10-03

... propose any land use changes outside NIHAC. Therefore, the NIHAC campus is anticipated to remain... analysis, Environmental Justice will not be discussed. Visual Quality The Master Plan's land use plan provides a framework to help organize future development at NIHAC so that similar land use types are...

Working landscapes: the future of land use policy?

Treesearch

Marc Miller; Thomas E. Sheridan; Susan Charnley; Christy Plumer; Jim Lyons; Tom Martin

2015-01-01

The history of land use in the American West has traditionally been one of conflict, but the divisive relationships between ranchers, foresters, land management agencies, recreational users, and conservationists are transforming. Grassroots coalitions have developed among unlikely allies. Together, they are advocating for management approaches that incorporate local...

14 CFR 152.403 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... on any area adjacent to a public airport; (2) Any acquisition of land or of any interest therein, or of any easement through or other interest in airspace, including land for future airport development... establishment of, airport hazards; and (3) Any acquisition of land or of any interest therein necessary to...

Finite land, infinite futures? Sustainable options on a fixed land base.

Treesearch

Sally Duncan

2001-01-01

The United States is expected to add around 120 million, an additional 40 percent, to its population in the next 50 years and personal incomes are generally projected to rise. This will inevitably intensify land use pressures. Between 1992 and 1997, USDA's National Resource Inventory estimated that 2.2 million acres of rural land were developed each year, with...

Estimating the impact of cannabis production on rural land prices in Humboldt County, CA

Treesearch

Benjamin Schwab; Van Butsic

2017-01-01

Amenity values, development potential, commodity prices and productive capacity largely determine rural land prices. For rural lands used in timber and agricultural production, capacity and expected future commodity prices play primary roles. For rural lands that are used as second homes or recreational properties, amenities— such as being near lakes or having scenic...

An integrated land change model for projecting future climate and land change scenarios

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wimberly, Michael; Sohl, Terry L.; Lamsal, Aashis; Liu, Zhihua; Hawbaker, Todd J.

2013-01-01

Climate change will have myriad effects on ecosystems worldwide, and natural and anthropogenic disturbances will be key drivers of these dynamics. In addition to climatic effects, continual expansion of human settlement into fire-prone forests will alter fire regimes, increase human vulnerability, and constrain future forest management options. There is a need for modeling tools to support the simulation and assessment of new management strategies over large regions in the context of changing climate, shifting development patterns, and an expanding wildland-urban interface. To address this need, we developed a prototype land change simulator that combines human-driven land use change (derived from the FORE-SCE model) with natural disturbances and vegetation dynamics (derived from the LADS model) and incorporates novel feedbacks between human land use and disturbance regimes. The prototype model was implemented in a test region encompassing the Denver metropolitan area along with its surrounding forested and agricultural landscapes. Initial results document the feasibility of integrated land change modeling at a regional scale but also highlighted conceptual and technical challenges for this type of model integration. Ongoing development will focus on improving climate sensitivities and modeling constraints imposed by climate change and human population growth on forest management activities.

Developing a Prototype ALHAT Human System Interface for Landing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hirsh, Robert L.; Chua, Zarrin K.; Heino, Todd A.; Strahan, Al; Major, Laura; Duda, Kevin

2011-01-01

The goal of the Autonomous Landing and Hazard Avoidance Technology (ALHAT) project is to safely execute a precision landing anytime/anywhere on the moon. This means the system must operate in any lighting conditions, operate in the presence of any thruster generated regolith clouds, and operate without the help of redeployed navigational aids or prepared landing site at the landing site. In order to reach this ambitious goal, computer aided technologies such as ALHAT will be needed in order to permit these landings to be done safely. Although there will be advanced autonomous capabilities onboard future landers, humans will still be involved (either onboard as astronauts or remotely from mission control) in any mission to the moon or other planetary body. Because many time critical decisions must be made quickly and effectively during the landing sequence, the Descent and Landing displays need to be designed to be as effective as possible at presenting the pertinent information to the operator, and allow the operators decisions to be implemented as quickly as possible. The ALHAT project has established the Human System Interface (HSI) team to lead in the development of these displays and to study the best way to provide operators enhanced situational awareness during landing activities. These displays are prototypes that were developed based on multiple design and feedback sessions with the astronaut office at NASA/ Johnson Space Center. By working with the astronauts in a series of plan/build/evaluate cycles, the HSI team has obtained astronaut feedback from the very beginning of the design process. In addition to developing prototype displays, the HSI team has also worked to provide realistic lunar terrain (and shading) to simulate a "out the window" view that can be adjusted to various lighting conditions (based on a desired date/time) to allow the same terrain to be viewed under varying lighting terrain. This capability will be critical to determining the effect of terrain/lighting on the human pilot, and how they use windows and displays during landing activities. The Apollo missions were limited to about 28 possible launch days a year due to lighting and orbital constraints. In order to take advantage of more landing opportunities and venture to more challenging landing locations, future landers will need to utilize sensors besides human eyes for scanning the surface. The ALHAT HSI system must effectively convey ALHAT produced information to the operator, so that landings can occur during less "optimal" conditions (lighting, surface terrain, slopes, etc) than was possible during Apollo missions. By proving this capability, ALHAT will simultaneously provide more flexible access to the moon, and greater safety margins for future landers. This paper will specifically focus on the development of prototype displays (the Trajectory Profile Display (TPD), Landing Point Designation (LPD), and Crew Camera View (CCV) ), implementation of realistic planetary terrain, human modeling, and future HSI plans.

Critical soft landing technology issues for future US space missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Macha, J. M.; Johnson, D. W.; Mcbride, D. D.

1992-01-01

A programmatic need for research and development to support parachute-based landing systems has not existed since the end of the Apollo missions in the mid-1970s. Now, a number of planned space programs require advanced landing capabilities for which the experience and technology base does not currently exist. New requirements for landing on land with controllable, gliding decelerators and for more effective impact attenuation devices justify a renewal of the landing technology development effort that existed during the Mercury, Gemini, and Apollo programs. A study was performed to evaluate the current and projected national capability in landing systems and to identify critical deficiencies in the technology base required to support the Assured Crew Return Vehicle and the Two-Way Manned Transportation System. A technology development program covering eight landing system performance issues is recommended.

[Simulation for balanced effect of soil and water resources on cultivated land in Naoli River Basin, Northeast China under the RCPs climate scene].

PubMed

Zhou, Hao; Lei, Guo Ping; Yang, Xue Xin; Zhao, Yu Hui; Zhang, Ji Xin

2018-04-01

Under the scenarios of climate change, balancing the land and water resources is one of the key problems needed to be solved in land development. To reveal the water dynamics of the cultivated land in Naoli River Basin, we simulated the future scenarios by using the future land use simulation model based on Landsat Satellite images, the DEM data and the meteorological data. Results showed that the growth rate of cultivated land gradually decreased. It showed different changing characteristics in different time periods, which led to different balancing effect between land and water resources. In 1990, the water dynamics of the cultivated land resources was in good state, At the same time, the adjustment of crops structure caused the paddy fields increased dramatically. During 2002 to 2014, the cultivated land that in moderate and serious moisture shortage state increased slightly, the water deficit was deteriorating to a certain degree, and maintained sound development of water profit and loss situation gradually. By comparing the simulation accuracy with different spatial resolutions and time scales, we selected 200 m as the spatial resolution of the simulation, and simulated the land use status in 2038. The simulation results showed that the cultivated land's water profit and loss degree in the river basin showed significant polarization characteristic, in that the water profit and loss degree of the cultivated land would be further intensified, the area with the higher grades of moisture profit and loss degree would distribute more centralized, and partially high evaluated grades for the moisture shortage would expand. It is needed to develop the cultivated land irrigation schemes and adjust the cultivated land in Naoli River Basin to balance soil and water resources.

Greenhouse gas emissions from alternative futures of deforestation and agricultural management in the southern Amazon.

PubMed

Galford, Gillian L; Melillo, Jerry M; Kicklighter, David W; Cronin, Timothy W; Cerri, Carlos E P; Mustard, John F; Cerri, Carlos C

2010-11-16

The Brazilian Amazon is one of the most rapidly developing agricultural areas in the world and represents a potentially large future source of greenhouse gases from land clearing and subsequent agricultural management. In an integrated approach, we estimate the greenhouse gas dynamics of natural ecosystems and agricultural ecosystems after clearing in the context of a future climate. We examine scenarios of deforestation and postclearing land use to estimate the future (2006-2050) impacts on carbon dioxide (CO(2)), methane (CH(4)), and nitrous oxide (N(2)O) emissions from the agricultural frontier state of Mato Grosso, using a process-based biogeochemistry model, the Terrestrial Ecosystems Model (TEM). We estimate a net emission of greenhouse gases from Mato Grosso, ranging from 2.8 to 15.9 Pg CO(2)-equivalents (CO(2)-e) from 2006 to 2050. Deforestation is the largest source of greenhouse gas emissions over this period, but land uses following clearing account for a substantial portion (24-49%) of the net greenhouse gas budget. Due to land-cover and land-use change, there is a small foregone carbon sequestration of 0.2-0.4 Pg CO(2)-e by natural forests and cerrado between 2006 and 2050. Both deforestation and future land-use management play important roles in the net greenhouse gas emissions of this frontier, suggesting that both should be considered in emissions policies. We find that avoided deforestation remains the best strategy for minimizing future greenhouse gas emissions from Mato Grosso.

Potential human impacts of overlapping land-use and climate in a sensitive dryland: a case study of the Colorado Plateau, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Copeland, Stella; Bradford, John B.; Duniway, Michael C.; Schuster, Rudy

2017-01-01

Climate and land-use interactions are likely to affect future environmental and socioeconomic conditions in drylands, which tend to be limited by water resources and prone to land degradation. We characterized the potential for interactions between land-use types and land-use and climate change in a model dryland system, the Colorado Plateau, a region with a history of climatic variability and land-use change. We analyzed the spatial and temporal trends in aridification, land-use, and recreation at the county and 10 km2 grid scales. Our results show that oil and gas development and recreation may interact due to increasing trends and overlapping areas of high intensity. Projections suggest that aridification will impact all vegetation classes, with some of the highest proportional change in the south-east. The results suggest that the rate of change and spatial pattern of land-use in the future may differ from past patterns in land-use scale and intensity.

Impact of future urban growth on regional climate changes in the Seoul Metropolitan Area, Korea.

PubMed

Kim, Hyunsu; Kim, Yoo-Keun; Song, Sang-Keun; Lee, Hwa Woon

2016-11-15

The influence of changes in future urban growth (e.g., land use changes) on the future climate variability in the Seoul metropolitan area (SMA), Korea was evaluated using the WRF model and an urban growth model (SLEUTH). The land use changes in the study area were simulated using the SLEUTH model under three different urban growth scenarios: (1) current development trends scenario (SC 1), (2) managed development scenario (SC 2) and (3) ecological development scenario (SC 3). The maximum difference in the ratio of urban growth between SC 1 and SC 3 (SC 1 - SC 3) for 50years (2000-2050) was approximately 6.72%, leading to the largest differences (0.01°C and 0.03ms(-1), respectively) in the mean air temperature at 2m (T2) and wind speed at 10m (WS10). From WRF-SLEUTH modeling, the effects of future urban growth (or future land use changes) in the SMA are expected to result in increases in the spatial mean T2 and WS10 of up to 1.15°C and 0.03ms(-1), respectively, possibly due to thermal circulation caused by the thermal differences between urban and rural regions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Land-use threats and protected areas: a scenario-based, landscape level approach

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wilson, Tamara S.; Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Sleeter, Rachel R.; Soulard, Christopher E.

2014-01-01

Anthropogenic land use will likely present a greater challenge to biodiversity than climate change this century in the Pacific Northwest, USA. Even if species are equipped with the adaptive capacity to migrate in the face of a changing climate, they will likely encounter a human-dominated landscape as a major dispersal obstacle. Our goal was to identify, at the ecoregion-level, protected areas in close proximity to lands with a higher likelihood of future land-use conversion. Using a state-and-transition simulation model, we modeled spatially explicit (1 km2) land use from 2000 to 2100 under seven alternative land-use and emission scenarios for ecoregions in the Pacific Northwest. We analyzed scenario-based land-use conversion threats from logging, agriculture, and development near existing protected areas. A conversion threat index (CTI) was created to identify ecoregions with highest projected land-use conversion potential within closest proximity to existing protected areas. Our analysis indicated nearly 22% of land area in the Coast Range, over 16% of land area in the Puget Lowland, and nearly 11% of the Cascades had very high CTI values. Broader regional-scale land-use change is projected to impact nearly 40% of the Coast Range, 30% of the Puget Lowland, and 24% of the Cascades (i.e., two highest CTI classes). A landscape level, scenario-based approach to modeling future land use helps identify ecoregions with existing protected areas at greater risk from regional land-use threats and can help prioritize future conservation efforts.

The potential impacts of development on wildlands in El Dorado County, California

Treesearch

Shawn C. Saving; Gregory B. Greenwood

2002-01-01

We modeled future development in rapidly urbanizing El Dorado County, California, to assess ecological impacts of expanding urbanization and effectiveness of standard policy mitigation efforts. Using raster land cover data and county parcel data, we constructed a footprint of current development and simulated future development using a modified stochastic flood-fill...

Developing scenarios to assess future landslide risks: a model-based approach applied to mountainous regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vacquie, Laure; Houet, Thomas

2016-04-01

In the last century, European mountain landscapes have experienced significant transformations. Natural and anthropogenic changes, climate changes, touristic and industrial development, socio-economic interactions, and their implications in terms of LUCC (land use and land cover changes) have directly influenced the spatial organization and vulnerability of mountain landscapes. This study is conducted as part of the SAMCO project founded by the French National Science Agency (ANR). It aims at developing a methodological approach, combining various tools, modelling platforms and methods, to identify vulnerable regions to landslide hazards accounting for futures LUCC. It presents an integrated approach combining participative scenarios and a LULC changes simulation models to assess the combined effects of LUCC and climate change on landslide risks in the Cauterets valley (French Pyrenees Mountains) up to 2100. Through vulnerability and risk mapping, the objective is to gather information to support landscape planning and implement land use strategies with local stakeholders for risk management. Four contrasting scenarios are developed and exhibit contrasting trajectories of socio-economic development. Prospective scenarios are based on national and international socio-economic contexts relying on existing assessment reports. The methodological approach integrates knowledge from local stakeholders to refine each scenario during their construction and to reinforce their plausibility and relevance by accounting for local specificities, e.g. logging and pastoral activities, touristic development, urban planning, etc. A process-based model, the Forecasting Scenarios for Mountains (ForeSceM) model, developed on the Dinamica Ego modelling platform is used to spatially allocate futures LUCC for each prospective scenario. Concurrently, a spatial decision support tool, i.e. the SYLVACCESS model, is used to identify accessible areas for forestry in scenario projecting logging activities. The method results in the development of LULC maps providing insights into a range of alternative futures using a scope of socio-economic and environmental conditions. A landslides assessment model, the ALICE model is then used as a final tool to analyze the potential impacts of simulated LUCC on landslide risks and the consequences in terms of vulnerability, e.g. changes in disaster risk allocation or characterization, degree of perturbation. This assessment intends to provide insights onto the potential future development of the valley to help identify areas at stake and to guide decision makers to help the risk management. Preliminary results show strong differences of futures land use and land cover maps that have significant influence on landslides hazards.

Minnesota Land Management Information Center

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nordstrand, E. A.

1981-01-01

A brief history of the Minnesota Land Management Information Center is given and the present operational status and plans for future development are described. The incorporation of LANDSAT data into the system, hardware and software capabilities, and funding are addressed.

Assessing Land Management Change Effects on Forest Carbon and Emissions Under Changing Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Law, B. E.

2014-12-01

There has been limited focus on fine-scale land management change effects on forest carbon under future environmental conditions (climate, nitrogen deposition, increased atmospheric CO2). Forest management decisions are often made at the landscape to regional levels before analyses have been conducted to determine the potential outcomes and effectiveness of such actions. Scientists need to evaluate plausible land management actions in a timely manner to help shape policy and strategic land management. Issues of interest include species-level adaptation to climate, resilience and vulnerability to mortality within forested landscapes and regions. Efforts are underway to improve land system model simulation of future mortality related to climate, and to develop and evaluate plausible land management options that could help mitigate or avoid future die-offs. Vulnerability to drought-related mortality varies among species and with tree size or age. Predictors of species ability to survive in specific environments are still not resolved. A challenge is limited observations for fine-scale (e.g. 4 km2) modeling, particularly physiological parameters. Uncertainties are primarily associated with future land management and policy decisions. They include the interface with economic factors and with other ecosystem services (biodiversity, water availability, wildlife habitat). The outcomes of future management scenarios should be compared with business-as-usual management under the same environmental conditions to determine the effects of management changes on forest carbon and net emissions to the atmosphere. For example, in the western U.S., land system modeling and life cycle assessment of several management options to reduce impacts of fire reduced long-term forest carbon gain and increased carbon emissions compared with business-as-usual management under future environmental conditions. The enhanced net carbon uptake with climate and reduced fire emissions after thinning did not compensate for the increased wood removals over 90 years, leading to reduced net biome production. Analysis of land management change scenarios at fine scales is needed, and should consider other ecological values in addition to carbon.

Hydrological Impacts of Land Use Change and Climate Variability in the Headwater Region of the Heihe River Basin, Northwest China

PubMed Central

Zhang, Ling; Nan, Zhuotong; Xu, Yi; Li, Shuo

2016-01-01

Land use change and climate variability are two key factors impacting watershed hydrology, which is strongly related to the availability of water resources and the sustainability of local ecosystems. This study assessed separate and combined hydrological impacts of land use change and climate variability in the headwater region of a typical arid inland river basin, known as the Heihe River Basin, northwest China, in the recent past (1995–2014) and near future (2015–2024), by combining two land use models (i.e., Markov chain model and Dyna-CLUE) with a hydrological model (i.e., SWAT). The potential impacts in the near future were explored using projected land use patterns and hypothetical climate scenarios established on the basis of analyzing long-term climatic observations. Land use changes in the recent past are dominated by the expansion of grassland and a decrease in farmland; meanwhile the climate develops with a wetting and warming trend. Land use changes in this period induce slight reductions in surface runoff, groundwater discharge and streamflow whereas climate changes produce pronounced increases in them. The joint hydrological impacts are similar to those solely induced by climate changes. Spatially, both the effects of land use change and climate variability vary with the sub-basin. The influences of land use changes are more identifiable in some sub-basins, compared with the basin-wide impacts. In the near future, climate changes tend to affect the hydrological regimes much more prominently than land use changes, leading to significant increases in all hydrological components. Nevertheless, the role of land use change should not be overlooked, especially if the climate becomes drier in the future, as in this case it may magnify the hydrological responses. PMID:27348224

Hydrological Impacts of Land Use Change and Climate Variability in the Headwater Region of the Heihe River Basin, Northwest China.

PubMed

Zhang, Ling; Nan, Zhuotong; Xu, Yi; Li, Shuo

2016-01-01

Land use change and climate variability are two key factors impacting watershed hydrology, which is strongly related to the availability of water resources and the sustainability of local ecosystems. This study assessed separate and combined hydrological impacts of land use change and climate variability in the headwater region of a typical arid inland river basin, known as the Heihe River Basin, northwest China, in the recent past (1995-2014) and near future (2015-2024), by combining two land use models (i.e., Markov chain model and Dyna-CLUE) with a hydrological model (i.e., SWAT). The potential impacts in the near future were explored using projected land use patterns and hypothetical climate scenarios established on the basis of analyzing long-term climatic observations. Land use changes in the recent past are dominated by the expansion of grassland and a decrease in farmland; meanwhile the climate develops with a wetting and warming trend. Land use changes in this period induce slight reductions in surface runoff, groundwater discharge and streamflow whereas climate changes produce pronounced increases in them. The joint hydrological impacts are similar to those solely induced by climate changes. Spatially, both the effects of land use change and climate variability vary with the sub-basin. The influences of land use changes are more identifiable in some sub-basins, compared with the basin-wide impacts. In the near future, climate changes tend to affect the hydrological regimes much more prominently than land use changes, leading to significant increases in all hydrological components. Nevertheless, the role of land use change should not be overlooked, especially if the climate becomes drier in the future, as in this case it may magnify the hydrological responses.

Future fire emissions associated with projected land use change in Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marlier, M. E.; DeFries, R. S.; Pennington, D.; Ordway, E.; Nelson, E.; Mickley, L.; Koplitz, S.

2013-12-01

Indonesia has experienced rapid land use change in past decades as forests and peatlands are cleared for agricultural development, including oil palm and timber plantations1. Fires are the predominant method of clearing and the subsequent emissions can have important public health impacts by contributing to regional particulate matter and ozone concentrations2. This regional haze was dramatically seen in Singapore during June 2013 due to the transport of emissions from fires in Sumatra. Our study is part of a larger project that will quantify the public health impact of various land use development scenarios for Sumatra over the coming decades. Here, we describe how we translate economic projections of land use change into future fire emissions inventories for GEOS-Chem atmospheric transport simulations. We relate past GFED3 fire emissions3 to detailed 1-km land use change data and MODIS fire radiative power observations, and apply these relationships to future estimates of land use change. The goal of this interdisciplinary project is to use modeling results to interact with policy makers and influence development strategies in ways that protect public health. 1Miettinen et al. 2011. Deforestation rates in insular Southeast Asia between 2000 and 2010. Glob. Change Biol.,17 (7), 2261-2270. 2Marlier et al. 2013. El Niño and health risks from landscape fire emissions in southeast Asia. Nature Clim. Change, 3, 131-136. 3van der Werf et al. 2010. Global fire emissions and the contribution of deforestation, savanna, forest, agricultural, and peat fires (1997-2009). Atmos. Chem. Physics, 10 (23), 11707-11735.

Groundwater-pumping optimization for land-subsidence control in Beijing plain, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qin, Huanhuan; Andrews, Charles B.; Tian, Fang; Cao, Guoliang; Luo, Yong; Liu, Jiurong; Zheng, Chunmiao

2018-01-01

Beijing, in the North China plain, is one of the few megacities that uses groundwater as its main source of water supply. Groundwater accounts for about two-thirds of the city's water supply, and during the past 50 years the storage depletion from the unconsolidated aquifers underlying the city has been >10.4 billion m3. By 2010, groundwater pumping in the city had resulted in a cumulative subsidence of greater than 100 mm in an area of about 3,900 km2, with a maximum cumulative subsidence of >1,200 mm. This subsidence has caused significant social and economic losses in Beijing, including significant damage to underground utilities. This study was undertaken to evaluate various future pumping scenarios to assist in selecting an optimal pumping scenario to minimize overall subsidence, meet the requirements of the Beijing Land Subsidence Prevention Plan (BLSPP 2013-2020), and be consistent with continued sustainable economic development. A numerical groundwater and land-subsidence model was developed for the aquifer system of the Beijing plain to evaluate land subsidence rates under the possible future pumping scenarios. The optimal pumping scenario consistent with the evaluation constraints is a reduction in groundwater pumping from three major pumping centers by 100, 50 and 20%, respectively, while maintaining an annual pumping rate of 1.9 billion m3. This scenario's land-subsidence rates satisfy the BLSPP 2013-2020 and the pumping scenario is consistent with continued economic development. It is recommended that this pumping scenario be adopted for future land-subsidence management in Beijing.

Groundwater-pumping optimization for land-subsidence control in Beijing plain, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qin, Huanhuan; Andrews, Charles B.; Tian, Fang; Cao, Guoliang; Luo, Yong; Liu, Jiurong; Zheng, Chunmiao

2018-06-01

Beijing, in the North China plain, is one of the few megacities that uses groundwater as its main source of water supply. Groundwater accounts for about two-thirds of the city's water supply, and during the past 50 years the storage depletion from the unconsolidated aquifers underlying the city has been >10.4 billion m3. By 2010, groundwater pumping in the city had resulted in a cumulative subsidence of greater than 100 mm in an area of about 3,900 km2, with a maximum cumulative subsidence of >1,200 mm. This subsidence has caused significant social and economic losses in Beijing, including significant damage to underground utilities. This study was undertaken to evaluate various future pumping scenarios to assist in selecting an optimal pumping scenario to minimize overall subsidence, meet the requirements of the Beijing Land Subsidence Prevention Plan (BLSPP 2013-2020), and be consistent with continued sustainable economic development. A numerical groundwater and land-subsidence model was developed for the aquifer system of the Beijing plain to evaluate land subsidence rates under the possible future pumping scenarios. The optimal pumping scenario consistent with the evaluation constraints is a reduction in groundwater pumping from three major pumping centers by 100, 50 and 20%, respectively, while maintaining an annual pumping rate of 1.9 billion m3. This scenario's land-subsidence rates satisfy the BLSPP 2013-2020 and the pumping scenario is consistent with continued economic development. It is recommended that this pumping scenario be adopted for future land-subsidence management in Beijing.

A global assessment of gross and net land change dynamics for current conditions and future scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fuchs, Richard; Prestele, Reinhard; Verburg, Peter H.

2018-05-01

The consideration of gross land changes, meaning all area gains and losses within a pixel or administrative unit (e.g. country), plays an essential role in the estimation of total land changes. Gross land changes affect the magnitude of total land changes, which feeds back to the attribution of biogeochemical and biophysical processes related to climate change in Earth system models. Global empirical studies on gross land changes are currently lacking. Whilst the relevance of gross changes for global change has been indicated in the literature, it is not accounted for in future land change scenarios. In this study, we extract gross and net land change dynamics from large-scale and high-resolution (30-100 m) remote sensing products to create a new global gross and net change dataset. Subsequently, we developed an approach to integrate our empirically derived gross and net changes with the results of future simulation models by accounting for the gross and net change addressed by the land use model and the gross and net change that is below the resolution of modelling. Based on our empirical data, we found that gross land change within 0.5° grid cells was substantially larger than net changes in all parts of the world. As 0.5° grid cells are a standard resolution of Earth system models, this leads to an underestimation of the amount of change. This finding contradicts earlier studies, which assumed gross land changes to appear in shifting cultivation areas only. Applied in a future scenario, the consideration of gross land changes led to approximately 50 % more land changes globally compared to a net land change representation. Gross land changes were most important in heterogeneous land systems with multiple land uses (e.g. shifting cultivation, smallholder farming, and agro-forestry systems). Moreover, the importance of gross changes decreased over time due to further polarization and intensification of land use. Our results serve as an empirical database for land change dynamics that can be applied in Earth system models and integrated assessment models.

'A Look at the Total Knowledge of the World': The University of Minnesota, the Land-Grant Ideal, and the Politics of U.S. Public Higher Education, 1950-1990.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Vandenberg-Daves, Jodi

2003-01-01

Discusses the role of land grants in university development. Focuses on the Morrell Land Grant Act of 1862 and 1890, an educational history landmark that provided opportunities for all socioeconomic levels of students. Speculates on whether land grant ideals will continue to be applied to future higher education. (KDR)

Rates and potentials of soil organic carbon sequestration in agricultural lands in Japan: an assessment using a process-based model and spatially-explicit land-use change inventories

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yagasaki, Y.; Shirato, Y.

2013-11-01

In order to develop a system to estimate a country-scale soil organic carbon stock change (SCSC) in agricultural lands in Japan that enables to take account effect of land-use changes, climate, different agricultural activity and nature of soils, a spatially-explicit model simulation system using Rothamsted Carbon Model (RothC) integrated with spatial and temporal inventories was developed. Future scenarios on agricultural activity and land-use change were prepared, in addition to future climate projections by global climate models, with purposely selecting rather exaggerated and contrasting set of scenarios to assess system's sensitivity as well as to better factor out direct human influence in the SCSC accounting. Simulation was run from year 1970 to 2008, and to year 2020, with historical inventories and future scenarios involving target set in agricultural policy, respectively, and subsequently until year 2100 with no temporal changes in land-use and agricultural activity but with varying climate to investigate course of SCSC. Results of the country-scale SCSC simulation have indicated that conversion of paddy fields to croplands occurred during past decades, as well as a large conversion of agricultural fields to settlements or other lands that have occurred in historical period and would continue in future, could act as main factors causing greater loss of soil organic carbon (SOC) at country-scale, with reduction organic carbon input to soils and enhancement of SOC decomposition by transition of soil environment to aerobic conditions, respectively. Scenario analysis indicated that an option to increase organic carbon input to soils with intensified rotation with suppressing conversion of agricultural lands to other land-use types could achieve reduction of CO2 emission due to SCSC in the same level as that of another option to let agricultural fields be abandoned. These results emphasize that land-use changes, especially conversion of the agricultural lands to other land-use types by abandoning or urbanization accompanied by substantial changes in the rate of organic carbon input to soils, could cause a greater or comparable influence on country-scale SCSC compared with changes in management of agricultural lands. A net-net based accounting on SCSC showed potential influence of variations in future climate on SCSC, that highlighted importance of application of process-based model for estimation of this quantity. Whereas a baseline-based accounting on SCSC was shown to have robustness over variations in future climate and effectiveness to factor out direct human-induced influence on SCSC. Validation of the system's function to estimate SCSC in agricultural lands, by comparing simulation output with data from nation-wide stationary monitoring conducted during year 1979-1998, suggested that the system has an acceptable levels of validity, though only for limited range of conditions at current stage. In addition to uncertainties in estimation of the rate of organic carbon input to soils in different land-use types at large-scale, time course of SOC sequestration, supposition on land-use change pattern in future, as well as feasibility of agricultural policy planning are considered as important factors that need to be taken account in estimation on a potential of country-scale SCSC.

Linear infrastructure drives habitat conversion and forest fragmentation associated with Marcellus shale gas development in a forested landscape.

PubMed

Langlois, Lillie A; Drohan, Patrick J; Brittingham, Margaret C

2017-07-15

Large, continuous forest provides critical habitat for some species of forest dependent wildlife. The rapid expansion of shale gas development within the northern Appalachians results in direct loss of such habitat at well sites, pipelines, and access roads; however the resulting habitat fragmentation surrounding such areas may be of greater importance. Previous research has suggested that infrastructure supporting gas development is the driver for habitat loss, but knowledge of what specific infrastructure affects habitat is limited by a lack of spatial tracking of infrastructure development in different land uses. We used high-resolution aerial imagery, land cover data, and well point data to quantify shale gas development across four time periods (2010, 2012, 2014, 2016), including: the number of wells permitted, drilled, and producing gas (a measure of pipeline development); land use change; and forest fragmentation on both private and public land. As of April 2016, the majority of shale gas development was located on private land (74% of constructed well pads); however, the number of wells drilled per pad was lower on private compared to public land (3.5 and 5.4, respectively). Loss of core forest was more than double on private than public land (4.3 and 2.0%, respectively), which likely results from better management practices implemented on public land. Pipelines were by far the largest contributor to the fragmentation of core forest due to shale gas development. Forecasting future land use change resulting from gas development suggests that the greatest loss of core forest will occur with pads constructed farthest from pre-existing pipelines (new pipelines must be built to connect pads) and in areas with greater amounts of core forest. To reduce future fragmentation, our results suggest new pads should be placed near pre-existing pipelines and methods to consolidate pipelines with other infrastructure should be used. Without these mitigation practices, we will continue to lose core forest as a result of new pipelines and infrastructure particularly on private land. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Payloads development for European land mobile satellites: A technical and economical assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Perrotta, G.; Rispoli, F.; Sassorossi, T.; Spazio, Selenia

1990-01-01

The European Space Agency (ESA) has defined two payloads for Mobile Communication; one payload is for pre-operational use, the European Land Mobile System (EMS), and one payload is for promoting the development of technologies for future mobile communication systems, the L-band Land Mobile Payload (LLM). A summary of the two payloads and a description of their capabilities is provided. Additionally, an economic assessment of the potential mobile communication market in Europe is provided.

Payloads development for European land mobile satellites: A technical and economical assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perrotta, G.; Rispoli, F.; Sassorossi, T.; Spazio, Selenia

The European Space Agency (ESA) has defined two payloads for Mobile Communication; one payload is for pre-operational use, the European Land Mobile System (EMS), and one payload is for promoting the development of technologies for future mobile communication systems, the L-band Land Mobile Payload (LLM). A summary of the two payloads and a description of their capabilities is provided. Additionally, an economic assessment of the potential mobile communication market in Europe is provided.

Simulating Land-Use Change using an Agent-Based Land Transaction Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bakker, M. M.; van Dijk, J.; Alam, S. J.

2013-12-01

In the densely populated cultural landscapes of Europe, the vast majority of all land is owned by private parties, be it farmers (the majority), nature organizations, property developers, or citizens. Therewith, the vast majority of all land-use change arises from land transactions between different owner types: successful farms expand at the expense of less successful farms, and meanwhile property developers, individual citizens, and nature organizations also actively purchase land. These land transactions are driven by specific properties of the land, by governmental policies, and by the (economic) motives of both buyers and sellers. Climate/global change can affect these drivers at various scales: at the local scale changes in hydrology can make certain land less or more desirable; at the global scale the agricultural markets will affect motives of farmers to buy or sell land; while at intermediate (e.g. provincial) scales property developers and nature conservationists may be encouraged or discouraged to purchase land. The cumulative result of all these transactions becomes manifest in changing land-use patterns, and consequent environmental responses. Within the project Climate Adaptation for Rural Areas an agent-based land-use model was developed that explores the future response of individual land users to climate change, within the context of wider global change (i.e. policy and market change). It simulates the exchange of land among farmers and between farmers and nature organizations and property developers, for a specific case study area in the east of the Netherlands. Results show that local impacts of climate change can result in a relative stagnation in the land market in waterlogged areas. Furthermore, the increase in dairying at the expense of arable cultivation - as has been observed in the area in the past - is slowing down as arable produce shows a favourable trend in the agricultural world market. Furthermore, budgets for nature managers are obviously an important driver for nature expansion, but without a strict zoning plan imposed by a government, it is difficult to achieve a continuous, defragmented nature area. Lastly, the model suggests that with time the trend in ever-increasing farm sizes is gradually levelling out. The decision rules that determine the behaviours of the individual agents in the model (selling land, buying land, or none of the two) are calibrated on historical census records, using multi-nominal logistic regression. Because estimating who will sell and who will buy can only be done with a limited certainty, our model reproduces the volatility / uncertainty in who will do what and when. This makes that each specific future scenario can have numerous realizations of reality. Our stakeholders (including, besides policy makers, also local farmers and nature organizations) indicate that this aspect of the model strongly contributes to its credibility. Nevertheless, within different scenarios certain (spatial) trends are distinguishable, so that the model is -besides credible - also useful for exploring future trends.

Greenhouse gas emissions from alternative futures of deforestation and agricultural management in the southern Amazon

PubMed Central

Galford, Gillian L.; Melillo, Jerry M.; Kicklighter, David W.; Cronin, Timothy W.; Cerri, Carlos E. P.; Mustard, John F.; Cerri, Carlos C.

2010-01-01

The Brazilian Amazon is one of the most rapidly developing agricultural areas in the world and represents a potentially large future source of greenhouse gases from land clearing and subsequent agricultural management. In an integrated approach, we estimate the greenhouse gas dynamics of natural ecosystems and agricultural ecosystems after clearing in the context of a future climate. We examine scenarios of deforestation and postclearing land use to estimate the future (2006–2050) impacts on carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions from the agricultural frontier state of Mato Grosso, using a process-based biogeochemistry model, the Terrestrial Ecosystems Model (TEM). We estimate a net emission of greenhouse gases from Mato Grosso, ranging from 2.8 to 15.9 Pg CO2-equivalents (CO2-e) from 2006 to 2050. Deforestation is the largest source of greenhouse gas emissions over this period, but land uses following clearing account for a substantial portion (24–49%) of the net greenhouse gas budget. Due to land-cover and land-use change, there is a small foregone carbon sequestration of 0.2–0.4 Pg CO2-e by natural forests and cerrado between 2006 and 2050. Both deforestation and future land-use management play important roles in the net greenhouse gas emissions of this frontier, suggesting that both should be considered in emissions policies. We find that avoided deforestation remains the best strategy for minimizing future greenhouse gas emissions from Mato Grosso. PMID:20651250

Oil and gas development footprint in the Piceance Basin, western Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Martinez, Cericia D.; Preston, Todd M.

2018-01-01

Understanding long-term implications of energy development on ecosystem functionrequires establishing regional datasets to quantify past development and determine relationships to predict future development. The Piceance Basin in western Colorado has a history of energy production and development is expected to continue into the foreseeable future due to abundant natural gas resources. To facilitate analyses of regional energy development we digitized all well pads in the Colorado portion of the basin, determined the previous land cover of areas converted to well pads over three time periods (2002–2006, 2007–2011, and 2012–2016), and explored the relationship between number of wells per pad and pad area to model future development. We also calculated the area of pads constructed prior to 2002. Over 21 million m2 has been converted to well pads with approximately 13 million m2 converted since 2002. The largest land conversion since 2002 occurred in shrub/scrub (7.9 million m2), evergreen (2.1 million m2), and deciduous (1.3 million m2) forest environments based on National Land Cover Database classifications. Operational practices have transitioned from single well pads to multi-well pads, increasing the average number of wells per pad from 2.5 prior to 2002, to 9.1 between 2012 and 2016. During the same time period the pad area per well has increased from 2030 m2 to 3504 m2. Kernel density estimation was used to model the relationship between the number of wells per pad and pad area, with these curves exhibiting a lognormal distribution. Therefore, either kernel density estimation or lognormal probability distributions may potentially be used to model land use requirements for future development. Digitized well pad locations in the Piceance Basin contribute to a growing body of spatial data on energy infrastructure and, coupled with study results, will facilitate future regional and national studies assessing the spatial and temporal effects of energy development on ecosystem function.

An analysis of human-induced land transformations in the San Francisco Bay/Sacramento area

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kirtland, David A.; Gaydos, L.J.; Clarke, Keith; DeCola, Lee; Acevedo, William; Bell, Cindy

1994-01-01

Part of the U.S. Geological Survey's Global Change Research Program involvesstudying the area from the Pacific Ocean to the Sierra foothills to enhance understanding ofthe role that human activities play in global change. The study investigates the ways thathumans transform the land and the effects that changing the landscape may have on regionaland global systems. To accomplish this research, scientists are compiling records ofhistorical transformations in the region's land cover over the last 140 years, developing asimulation model to predict land cover change, and assembling a digital data set to analyzeand describe land transformations. The historical data regarding urban growth focusattention on the significant change the region underwent from 1850 to 1990. Animation isused to visualize a time series of the change in land cover. The historical change is beingused to calibrate a prototype cellular automata model, developed to predict changes in urbanland cover 100 years into the future. Future urban growth scenarios will be developed foranalyzing possible human-induced impacts on land cover at a regional scale. These data aidin documenting and understanding human-induced land transformations from both historical andpredictive perspectives. A descriptive analysis of the region is used to investigate therelationships among data characteristic of the region. These data consist of multilayertopography, climate, vegetation, and population data for a 256-km2 region of centralCalifornia. A variety of multivariate analysis tools are used to integrate the data inraster format from map contours, interpolated climate observations, satellite observations,and population estimates.

76 FR 38416 - Notice of Segregation of Public Lands in the States of Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-06-30

... protecting potential sites for future solar energy development. DATES: Effective Date: This segregation is... public lands that have been identified by the BLM as having the potential for solar energy generation...

The Urban Intensive Land-use Evaluation in Xi’an, Based on Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, Ru; Kang, Zhiyuan

2018-01-01

The intensive land-use is the basis of urban “stock optimization”, and scientific and reasonable evaluation is the important content of the land-intensive utilization. In this paper, through the survey of Xi’an urban land-use condition, we construct the suitable evaluation index system of Xi’an’ intensive land-use, by using Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation (FCE) of combination. And through the analysis of the influencing factors of land-intensive utilization, we provide a reference for the future development direction.

75 FR 54627 - ICLUS v1.3 User's Manual: ArcGIS Tools and Datasets for Modeling U.S. Housing Density Growth

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-09-08

... Climate and Land Use Scenarios, a project which is described in the 2009 EPA Report, ``Land-Use Scenarios: National-Scale Housing- Density Scenarios Consistent with Climate Change Storylines.'' These scenarios are... economic development, which are used by climate change modelers to develop projections of future climate...

Supersonic Retropropulsion Technology Development in NASA's Entry, Descent, and Landing Project

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Edquist, Karl T.; Berry, Scott A.; Rhode, Matthew N.; Kelb, Bil; Korzun, Ashley; Dyakonov, Artem A.; Zarchi, Kerry A.; Schauerhamer, Daniel G.; Post, Ethan A.

2012-01-01

NASA's Entry, Descent, and Landing (EDL) space technology roadmap calls for new technologies to achieve human exploration of Mars in the coming decades [1]. One of those technologies, termed Supersonic Retropropulsion (SRP), involves initiation of propulsive deceleration at supersonic Mach numbers. The potential benefits afforded by SRP to improve payload mass and landing precision make the technology attractive for future EDL missions. NASA's EDL project spent two years advancing the technological maturity of SRP for Mars exploration [2-15]. This paper summarizes the technical accomplishments from the project and highlights challenges and recommendations for future SRP technology development programs. These challenges include: developing sufficiently large SRP engines for use on human-scale entry systems; testing and computationally modelling complex and unsteady SRP fluid dynamics; understanding the effects of SRP on entry vehicle stability and controllability; and demonstrating sub-scale SRP entry systems in Earth's atmosphere.

Contribution of future urbanisation expansion to flood risk changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bruwier, Martin; Mustafa, Ahmed; Archambeau, Pierre; Erpicum, Sébastien; Pirotton, Michel; Teller, Jacques; Dewals, Benjamin

2016-04-01

The flood risk is expected to increase in the future due to climate change and urban development. Climate change modifies flood hazard and urban development influences exposure and vulnerability to floods. While the influence of climate change on flood risk has been studied widely, the impact of urban development also needs to be considered in a sustainable flood risk management approach. The main goal of this study is the determination of the sensitivity of future flood risk to different urban development scenarios at a relatively short-time horizon in the River Meuse basin in Wallonia (Belgium). From the different scenarios, the expected impact of urban development on flood risk is assessed. Three urban expansion scenarios are developed up to 2030 based on a coupled cellular automata (CA) and agent-based (AB) urban expansion model: (i) business-as-usual, (ii) restrictive and (iii) extreme expansion scenarios. The main factor controlling these scenarios is the future urban land demand. Each urban expansion scenario is developed by considering or not high and/or medium flood hazard zones as a constraint for urban development. To assess the model's performance, it is calibrated for the Meuse River valley (Belgium) to simulate urban expansion between 1990 and 2000. Calibration results are then assessed by comparing the 2000 simulated land-use map and the actual 2000 land-use map. The flood damage estimation for each urban expansion scenario is determined for five flood discharges by overlaying the inundation map resulting from a hydraulic computation and the urban expansion map and by using damage curves and specific prices. The hydraulic model Wolf2D has been extensively validated by comparisons between observations and computational results during flood event .This study focuses only on mobile and immobile prices for urban lands, which are associated to the most severe damages caused by floods along the River Meuse. These findings of this study offers tools to drive urban expansion based on numerous policies visions to mitigate future flood risk along the Meuse River. In particular, we assess the impacts on future flood risk of the prohibition of urban development in high and/or medium flood hazard zones. Acknowledgements The research was funded through the ARC grant for Concerted Research Actions, financed by the Wallonia-Brussels Federation.

Land Use Planning and Wildfire: Development Policies Influence Future Probability of Housing Loss

PubMed Central

Syphard, Alexandra D.; Bar Massada, Avi; Butsic, Van; Keeley, Jon E.

2013-01-01

Increasing numbers of homes are being destroyed by wildfire in the wildland-urban interface. With projections of climate change and housing growth potentially exacerbating the threat of wildfire to homes and property, effective fire-risk reduction alternatives are needed as part of a comprehensive fire management plan. Land use planning represents a shift in traditional thinking from trying to eliminate wildfires, or even increasing resilience to them, toward avoiding exposure to them through the informed placement of new residential structures. For land use planning to be effective, it needs to be based on solid understanding of where and how to locate and arrange new homes. We simulated three scenarios of future residential development and projected landscape-level wildfire risk to residential structures in a rapidly urbanizing, fire-prone region in southern California. We based all future development on an econometric subdivision model, but we varied the emphasis of subdivision decision-making based on three broad and common growth types: infill, expansion, and leapfrog. Simulation results showed that decision-making based on these growth types, when applied locally for subdivision of individual parcels, produced substantial landscape-level differences in pattern, location, and extent of development. These differences in development, in turn, affected the area and proportion of structures at risk from burning in wildfires. Scenarios with lower housing density and larger numbers of small, isolated clusters of development, i.e., resulting from leapfrog development, were generally predicted to have the highest predicted fire risk to the largest proportion of structures in the study area, and infill development was predicted to have the lowest risk. These results suggest that land use planning should be considered an important component to fire risk management and that consistently applied policies based on residential pattern may provide substantial benefits for future risk reduction. PMID:23977120

Developing a New North American Land Cover Product at 30m Resolution: Methods, Results and Future Plans

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Homer, C.; Colditz, R. R.; Latifovic, R.; Llamas, R. M.; Pouliot, D.; Danielson, P.; Meneses, C.; Victoria, A.; Ressl, R.; Richardson, K.; Vulpescu, M.

2017-12-01

Land cover and land cover change information at regional and continental scales has become fundamental for studying and understanding the terrestrial environment. With recent advances in computer science and freely available image archives, continental land cover mapping has been advancing to higher spatial resolution products. The North American Land Change Monitoring System (NALCMS) remains the principal provider of seamless land cover maps of North America. Founded in 2006, this collaboration among the governments of Canada, Mexico and the United States has released two previous products based on 250m MODIS images, including a 2005 land cover and a 2005-2010 land cover change product. NALCMS has recently completed the next generation North America land cover product, based upon 30m Landsat images. This product now provides the first ever 30m land cover produced for the North American continent, providing 19 classes of seamless land cover. This presentation provides an overview of country-specific image classification processes, describes the continental map production process, provides results for the North American continent and discusses future plans. NALCMS is coordinated by the Commission for Environmental Cooperation (CEC) and all products can be obtained at their website - www.cec.org.

Land-Use and Environmental Pressures Resulting from Current and Future Bioenergy Crop Expansion: A Review

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Miyake, Saori; Renouf, Marguerite; Peterson, Ann; McAlpine, Clive; Smith, Carl

2012-01-01

Recent energy and climate policies, particularly in the developed world, have increased demand for bioenergy as an alternative, which has led to both direct and indirect land-use changes and an array of environmental and socio-economic concerns. A comprehensive understanding of the land-use dynamics of bioenergy crop production is essential for…

Lidar Sensors for Autonomous Landing and Hazard Avoidance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Amzajerdian, Farzin; Petway, Larry B.; Hines, Glenn D.; Roback, Vincent E.; Reisse, Robert A.; Pierrottet, Diego F.

2013-01-01

Lidar technology will play an important role in enabling highly ambitious missions being envisioned for exploration of solar system bodies. Currently, NASA is developing a set of advanced lidar sensors, under the Autonomous Landing and Hazard Avoidance (ALHAT) project, aimed at safe landing of robotic and manned vehicles at designated sites with a high degree of precision. These lidar sensors are an Imaging Flash Lidar capable of generating high resolution three-dimensional elevation maps of the terrain, a Doppler Lidar for providing precision vehicle velocity and altitude, and a Laser Altimeter for measuring distance to the ground and ground contours from high altitudes. The capabilities of these lidar sensors have been demonstrated through four helicopter and one fixed-wing aircraft flight test campaigns conducted from 2008 through 2012 during different phases of their development. Recently, prototype versions of these landing lidars have been completed for integration into a rocket-powered terrestrial free-flyer vehicle (Morpheus) being built by NASA Johnson Space Center. Operating in closed-loop with other ALHAT avionics, the viability of the lidars for future landing missions will be demonstrated. This paper describes the ALHAT lidar sensors and assesses their capabilities and impacts on future landing missions.

National climate assessment technical report on the impacts of climate and land use and land cover change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Loveland, Thomas; Mahmood, Rezaul; Patel-Weynand, Toral; Karstensen, Krista; Beckendorf, Kari; Bliss, Norman; Carleton, Andrew

2012-01-01

This technical report responds to the recognition by the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) and the National Climate Assessment (NCA) of the importance of understanding how land use and land cover (LULC) affects weather and climate variability and change and how that variability and change affects LULC. Current published, peer-reviewed, scientific literature and supporting data from both existing and original sources forms the basis for this report's assessment of the current state of knowledge regarding land change and climate interactions. The synthesis presented herein documents how current and future land change may alter environment processes and in turn, how those conditions may affect both land cover and land use by specifically investigating, * The primary contemporary trends in land use and land cover, * The land-use and land-cover sectors and regions which are most affected by weather and climate variability,* How land-use practices are adapting to climate change, * How land-use and land-cover patterns and conditions are affecting weather and climate, and * The key elements of an ongoing Land Resources assessment. These findings present information that can be used to better assess land change and climate interactions in order to better assess land management and adaptation strategies for future environmental change and to assist in the development of a framework for an ongoing national assessment.

Biospheric feedback effects in a synchronously coupled model of human and Earth systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Thornton, Peter E.; Calvin, Katherine; Jones, Andrew D.

Fossil fuel combustion and land-use change are the two largest contributors to industrial-era increases in atmospheric CO 2 concentration. Projections of these are thus fundamental inputs for coupled Earth system models (ESMs) used to estimate the physical and biological consequences of future climate system forcing. While historical datasets are available to inform past and current climate analyses, assessments of future climate change have relied on projections of energy and land use from energy economic models, constrained by assumptions about future policy, land-use patterns, and socio-economic development trajectories. We show that the climatic impacts on land ecosystems drives significant feedbacks inmore » energy, agriculture, land-use, and carbon cycle projections for the 21st century. We also find that exposure of human appropriated land ecosystem productivity to biospheric change results in reductions of land area used for crops; increases in managed forest area and carbon stocks; decreases in global crop prices; and reduction in fossil fuel emissions for a low-mid range forcing scenario. Furthermore, the feedbacks between climate-induced biospheric change and human system forcings to the climate system demonstrated here are handled inconsistently, or excluded altogether, in the one-way asynchronous coupling of energy economic models to ESMs used to date.« less

Biospheric feedback effects in a synchronously coupled model of human and Earth systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thornton, Peter E.; Calvin, Katherine; Jones, Andrew D.; di Vittorio, Alan V.; Bond-Lamberty, Ben; Chini, Louise; Shi, Xiaoying; Mao, Jiafu; Collins, William D.; Edmonds, Jae; Thomson, Allison; Truesdale, John; Craig, Anthony; Branstetter, Marcia L.; Hurtt, George

2017-07-01

Fossil fuel combustion and land-use change are the two largest contributors to industrial-era increases in atmospheric CO 2 concentration. Projections of these are thus fundamental inputs for coupled Earth system models (ESMs) used to estimate the physical and biological consequences of future climate system forcing. While historical data sets are available to inform past and current climate analyses, assessments of future climate change have relied on projections of energy and land use from energy-economic models, constrained by assumptions about future policy, land-use patterns and socio-economic development trajectories. Here we show that the climatic impacts on land ecosystems drive significant feedbacks in energy, agriculture, land use and carbon cycle projections for the twenty-first century. We find that exposure of human-appropriated land ecosystem productivity to biospheric change results in reductions of land area used for crops; increases in managed forest area and carbon stocks; decreases in global crop prices; and reduction in fossil fuel emissions for a low-mid-range forcing scenario. The feedbacks between climate-induced biospheric change and human system forcings to the climate system--demonstrated here--are handled inconsistently, or excluded altogether, in the one-way asynchronous coupling of energy-economic models to ESMs used to date.

Biospheric feedback effects in a synchronously coupled model of human and Earth systems

DOE PAGES

Thornton, Peter E.; Calvin, Katherine; Jones, Andrew D.; ...

2017-06-12

Fossil fuel combustion and land-use change are the two largest contributors to industrial-era increases in atmospheric CO 2 concentration. Projections of these are thus fundamental inputs for coupled Earth system models (ESMs) used to estimate the physical and biological consequences of future climate system forcing. While historical datasets are available to inform past and current climate analyses, assessments of future climate change have relied on projections of energy and land use from energy economic models, constrained by assumptions about future policy, land-use patterns, and socio-economic development trajectories. We show that the climatic impacts on land ecosystems drives significant feedbacks inmore » energy, agriculture, land-use, and carbon cycle projections for the 21st century. We also find that exposure of human appropriated land ecosystem productivity to biospheric change results in reductions of land area used for crops; increases in managed forest area and carbon stocks; decreases in global crop prices; and reduction in fossil fuel emissions for a low-mid range forcing scenario. Furthermore, the feedbacks between climate-induced biospheric change and human system forcings to the climate system demonstrated here are handled inconsistently, or excluded altogether, in the one-way asynchronous coupling of energy economic models to ESMs used to date.« less

Biospheric feedback effects in a synchronously coupled model of human and Earth systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thornton, P. E.; Calvin, K. V.; Jones, A. D.; Di Vittorio, A. V.; Bond-Lamberty, B. P.; Chini, L. P.; Shi, X.; Mao, J.; Collins, W. D.; Edmonds, J.; Hurtt, G. C.

2017-12-01

Fossil fuel combustion and land-use change are the two largest contributors to industrial-era increases in atmospheric CO2 concentration. Projections of these are thus fundamental inputs for coupled Earth system models (ESMs) used to estimate the physical and biological consequences of future climate system forcing. While historical datasets are available to inform past and current climate analyses, assessments of future climate change have relied on projections of energy and land use from energy economic models, constrained by assumptions about future policy, land-use patterns, and socio-economic development trajectories. In this work we show that the climatic impacts on land ecosystems drives significant feedbacks in energy, agriculture, land-use, and carbon cycle projections for the 21st century. We find that exposure of human appropriated land ecosystem productivity to biospheric change results in reductions of land area used for crops; increases in managed forest area and carbon stocks; decreases in global crop prices; and reduction in fossil fuel emissions for a low-mid range forcing scenario. Land ecosystem response to increased carbon dioxide concentration, increased anthropogenic nitrogen deposition, and changes in temperature and precipitation all play a role. The feedbacks between climate-induced biospheric change and human system forcings to the climate system demonstrated in this work are handled inconsistently, or excluded altogether, in the one-way asynchronous coupling of energy economic models to ESMs used to date.

PREDICTING THE RELATIVE IMPACTS OF URBAN DEVELOPMENT POLICIES AND ON-ROAD VEHICLE TECHNOLOGIES ON AIR QUALITY IN THE UNITED STATES: MODELING AND ANALYSIS OF A CASE STUDY IN AUSTIN, TEXAS

EPA Science Inventory

Urban development results in changes to land use and land cover and, consequently, to biogenic and anthropogenic emissions, meteorological processes, and processes such as dry deposition that influence future predictions of air quality. This study examines the impacts of alter...

The Land Use Model Intercomparison Project (LUMIP) Contribution to CMIP6: Rationale and Experimental Design

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lawrence, D. M.; Hurtt, G. C.; Arneth, A.; Brovkin, V.; Calvin, K. V.; Jones, A. D.; Jones, C.; Lawrence, P.; De Noblet-Ducoudré, N.; Pongratz, J.; Seneviratne, S. I.; Shevliakova, E.

2016-12-01

Human land-use activities have resulted in large changes to the Earth surface, with resulting implications for climate. The Land Use Model Intercomparison Project (LUMIP) aims to further advance understanding of the impacts of land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) on climate, specifically addressing the questions: (1) What are the effects of LULCC on climate and biogeochemical cycling (past-future)? (2) What are the impacts of land management on surface fluxes of carbon, water, and energy and (3) Are there regional land-management strategies with promise to help mitigate against climate change? LUMIP will also address a range of more detailed science questions to get at process-level attribution, uncertainty, data requirements, and other related issues in more depth and sophistication than possible in a multi-model context to date. Foci will include separation and quantification of the effects on climate from LULCC relative to all forcings, separation of biogeochemical from biogeophysical effects of land-use, the unique impacts of land-cover change versus land management change, modulation of land-use impact on climate by land-atmosphere coupling strength, and the extent that CO2 fertilization is modulated by past and future land use. LUMIP involves three sets of activities: (1) development of an updated and expanded historical and future land-use dataset, (2) an experimental protocol for LUMIP experiments, and (3) definition of metrics that quantify model performance with respect to LULCC. LUMIP experiments are designed to be complementary to simulations requested in the CMIP6 DECK and historical simulations and other CMIP6 MIPs including ScenarioMIP, C4MIP, LS3MIP, and DAMIP. LUMIP includes idealized coupled and land-only model simulations designed to advance process-level understanding of LULCC impacts on climate. LUMIP also includes simulations that allow quantification of the historic impact of land use and the potential for future land management decisions to aid in mitigation of climate change. We will present the experimental protocol in detail, explain the rationale, outlines plans for analysis, and describe a new subgrid land-use tile data request for selected variables (reporting model output data separately for primary and secondary land, crops, pasture, and urban land-use types).

How will climate change pathways and mitigation options alter incidence of vector-borne diseases? A framework for leishmaniasis in South and Meso-America

PubMed Central

Masante, Dario; Golding, Nicholas; Pigott, David; Day, John C.; Ibañez-Bernal, Sergio; Kolb, Melanie; Jones, Laurence

2017-01-01

The enormous global burden of vector-borne diseases disproportionately affects poor people in tropical, developing countries. Changes in vector-borne disease impacts are often linked to human modification of ecosystems as well as climate change. For tropical ecosystems, the health impacts of future environmental and developmental policy depend on how vector-borne disease risks trade off against other ecosystem services across heterogeneous landscapes. By linking future socio-economic and climate change pathways to dynamic land use models, this study is amongst the first to analyse and project impacts of both land use and climate change on continental-scale patterns in vector-borne diseases. Models were developed for cutaneous and visceral leishmaniasis in the Americas—ecologically complex sand fly borne infections linked to tropical forests and diverse wild and domestic mammal hosts. Both diseases were hypothesised to increase with available interface habitat between forest and agricultural or domestic habitats and with mammal biodiversity. However, landscape edge metrics were not important as predictors of leishmaniasis. Models including mammal richness were similar in accuracy and predicted disease extent to models containing only climate and land use predictors. Overall, climatic factors explained 80% and land use factors only 20% of the variance in past disease patterns. Both diseases, but especially cutaneous leishmaniasis, were associated with low seasonality in temperature and precipitation. Since such seasonality increases under future climate change, particularly under strong climate forcing, both diseases were predicted to contract in geographical extent to 2050, with cutaneous leishmaniasis contracting by between 35% and 50%. Whilst visceral leishmaniasis contracted slightly more under strong than weak management for carbon, biodiversity and ecosystem services, future cutaneous leishmaniasis extent was relatively insensitive to future alternative socio-economic pathways. Models parameterised at narrower geographical scales may be more sensitive to land use pattern and project more substantial changes in disease extent under future alternative socio-economic pathways. PMID:29020041

How will climate change pathways and mitigation options alter incidence of vector-borne diseases? A framework for leishmaniasis in South and Meso-America.

PubMed

Purse, Bethan V; Masante, Dario; Golding, Nicholas; Pigott, David; Day, John C; Ibañez-Bernal, Sergio; Kolb, Melanie; Jones, Laurence

2017-01-01

The enormous global burden of vector-borne diseases disproportionately affects poor people in tropical, developing countries. Changes in vector-borne disease impacts are often linked to human modification of ecosystems as well as climate change. For tropical ecosystems, the health impacts of future environmental and developmental policy depend on how vector-borne disease risks trade off against other ecosystem services across heterogeneous landscapes. By linking future socio-economic and climate change pathways to dynamic land use models, this study is amongst the first to analyse and project impacts of both land use and climate change on continental-scale patterns in vector-borne diseases. Models were developed for cutaneous and visceral leishmaniasis in the Americas-ecologically complex sand fly borne infections linked to tropical forests and diverse wild and domestic mammal hosts. Both diseases were hypothesised to increase with available interface habitat between forest and agricultural or domestic habitats and with mammal biodiversity. However, landscape edge metrics were not important as predictors of leishmaniasis. Models including mammal richness were similar in accuracy and predicted disease extent to models containing only climate and land use predictors. Overall, climatic factors explained 80% and land use factors only 20% of the variance in past disease patterns. Both diseases, but especially cutaneous leishmaniasis, were associated with low seasonality in temperature and precipitation. Since such seasonality increases under future climate change, particularly under strong climate forcing, both diseases were predicted to contract in geographical extent to 2050, with cutaneous leishmaniasis contracting by between 35% and 50%. Whilst visceral leishmaniasis contracted slightly more under strong than weak management for carbon, biodiversity and ecosystem services, future cutaneous leishmaniasis extent was relatively insensitive to future alternative socio-economic pathways. Models parameterised at narrower geographical scales may be more sensitive to land use pattern and project more substantial changes in disease extent under future alternative socio-economic pathways.

Impacts of Changing Climatic Drivers and Land use features on Future Stormwater Runoff in the Northwest Florida Basin: A Large-Scale Hydrologic Modeling Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khan, M.; Abdul-Aziz, O. I.

2017-12-01

Potential changes in climatic drivers and land cover features can significantly influence the stormwater budget in the Northwest Florida Basin. We investigated the hydro-climatic and land use sensitivities of stormwater runoff by developing a large-scale process-based rainfall-runoff model for the large basin by using the EPA Storm Water Management Model (SWMM 5.1). Climatic and hydrologic variables, as well as land use/cover features were incorporated into the model to account for the key processes of coastal hydrology and its dynamic interactions with groundwater and sea levels. We calibrated and validated the model by historical daily streamflow observations during 2009-2012 at four major rivers in the basin. Downscaled climatic drivers (precipitation, temperature, solar radiation) projected by twenty GCMs-RCMs under CMIP5, along with the projected future land use/cover features were also incorporated into the model. The basin storm runoff was then simulated for the historical (2000s = 1976-2005) and two future periods (2050s = 2030-2059, and 2080s = 2070-2099). Comparative evaluation of the historical and future scenarios leads to important guidelines for stormwater management in Northwest Florida and similar regions under a changing climate and environment.

Land-cover change research at the U.S. Geological Survey-assessing our nation's dynamic land surface

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wilson, Tamara S.

2011-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) recently completed an unprecedented, 27-year assessment of land-use and land-cover change for the conterminous United States. For the period 1973 to 2000, scientists generated estimates of change in major types of land use and land cover, such as development, mining, agriculture, forest, grasslands, and wetlands. To help provide the insight that our Nation will need to make land-use decisions in coming decades, the historical trends data is now being used by the USGS to help model potential future land use/land cover under different scenarios, including climate, environmental, economic, population, public policy, and technological change.

Urban Landscape Characterization Using Remote Sensing Data For Input into Air Quality Modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Quattrochi, Dale A.; Estes, Maurice G., Jr.; Crosson, William; Khan, Maudood

2005-01-01

The urban landscape is inherently complex and this complexity is not adequately captured in air quality models that are used to assess whether urban areas are in attainment of EPA air quality standards, particularly for ground level ozone. This inadequacy of air quality models to sufficiently respond to the heterogeneous nature of the urban landscape can impact how well these models predict ozone pollutant levels over metropolitan areas and ultimately, whether cities exceed EPA ozone air quality standards. We are exploring the utility of high-resolution remote sensing data and urban growth projections as improved inputs to meteorological and air quality models focusing on the Atlanta, Georgia metropolitan area as a case study. The National Land Cover Dataset at 30m resolution is being used as the land use/land cover input and aggregated to the 4km scale for the MM5 mesoscale meteorological model and the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling schemes. Use of these data have been found to better characterize low density/suburban development as compared with USGS 1 km land use/land cover data that have traditionally been used in modeling. Air quality prediction for future scenarios to 2030 is being facilitated by land use projections using a spatial growth model. Land use projections were developed using the 2030 Regional Transportation Plan developed by the Atlanta Regional Commission. This allows the State Environmental Protection agency to evaluate how these transportation plans will affect future air quality.

Gravel resources, urbanization, and future land use, Front Range Urban Corridor, Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Soule, James M.; Fitch, Harold R.

1974-01-01

An assessment of gravel needs in Front Range Urban Corridor markets to 2000 A.D., based on forecast population increases and urbanization, indicates that adequate resources to meet anticipated needs are potentially available, if future land use does not preclude their extraction. Because of urban encroachment onto gravel-bearing lands, this basic construction material is in short supply nationally and in the Front Range Urban Corridor. Longer hauls, increased prices, and use of alternatives, especially crushed rock aggregate, have resulted. An analysis of possible sequential land uses following gravel mining indicates that a desirable use is for 'real estate' ponds and small lakes. A method for computing gravel reserves, based on planimeter measurement of area of resource-bearing lands and statistical analysis of reliability of thickness and size distribution data, was developed to compute reserves in individual markets. A discussion of the qualitative 'usability' of these reserves is then made for the individual markets.

Land use politics and law in the 1970's

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lamb, C. M.

1975-01-01

Political facets of the general land use challenge faced in the United States, and the legal authority for governmental action by state and federal officials under given conditions are discussed. Some current and future implications of these political and legal developments are presented. An overview of local versus state versus federal powers is presented along with practices for solving the nation's land use challenge. An analysis is provided of land use law and politics in five states playing active roles in land control. Land use politics and law at the federal level is addressed, with emphasis on three key legislative measures.

The City House and the Country House: Land-Use Policies and Rural Poverty in the Northeast. Coal, Poverty, and Development Policy in Eastern Kentucky. Development and Management of Forest Resources for Rural Development in the Pacific Northwest. Natural and Human Resources: Major Public Policy and Minority Rural Land Ownership, Management, and Use. Rural Development, Poverty, and Natural Resources Workshop Paper Series, Part V.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Popper, Frank J.; And Others

This workshop collection contains four case studies regarding particular relationships between specific resources and clientele or user groups, and three discussions based on those four papers and/or conference discussions. The first paper discusses urban land use origins and compares urban policies with rural policies suggesting that future rural…

Simulation of Regionally Ecological Land Based on a Cellular Automation Model: A Case Study of Beijing, China

PubMed Central

Xie, Hualin; Kung, Chih-Chun; Zhang, Yanting; Li, Xiubin

2012-01-01

Ecological land is like the “liver” of a city and is very useful to public health. Ecological land change is a spatially dynamic non-linear process under the interaction between natural and anthropogenic factors at different scales. In this study, by setting up natural development scenario, object orientation scenario and ecosystem priority scenario, a Cellular Automation (CA) model has been established to simulate the evolution pattern of ecological land in Beijing in the year 2020. Under the natural development scenario, most of ecological land will be replaced by construction land and crop land. But under the scenarios of object orientation and ecosystem priority, the ecological land area will increase, especially under the scenario of ecosystem priority. When considering the factors such as total area of ecological land, loss of key ecological land and spatial patterns of land use, the scenarios from priority to inferiority are ecosystem priority, object orientation and natural development, so future land management policies in Beijing should be focused on conversion of cropland to forest, wetland protection and prohibition of exploitation of natural protection zones, water source areas and forest parks to maintain the safety of the regional ecosystem. PMID:23066410

Simulation of regionally ecological land based on a cellular automation model: a case study of Beijing, China.

PubMed

Xie, Hualin; Kung, Chih-Chun; Zhang, Yanting; Li, Xiubin

2012-08-01

Ecological land is like the "liver" of a city and is very useful to public health. Ecological land change is a spatially dynamic non-linear process under the interaction between natural and anthropogenic factors at different scales. In this study, by setting up natural development scenario, object orientation scenario and ecosystem priority scenario, a Cellular Automation (CA) model has been established to simulate the evolution pattern of ecological land in Beijing in the year 2020. Under the natural development scenario, most of ecological land will be replaced by construction land and crop land. But under the scenarios of object orientation and ecosystem priority, the ecological land area will increase, especially under the scenario of ecosystem priority. When considering the factors such as total area of ecological land, loss of key ecological land and spatial patterns of land use, the scenarios from priority to inferiority are ecosystem priority, object orientation and natural development, so future land management policies in Beijing should be focused on conversion of cropland to forest, wetland protection and prohibition of exploitation of natural protection zones, water source areas and forest parks to maintain the safety of the regional ecosystem.

Projecting community changes in hazard exposure to support long-term risk reduction: A case study of tsunami hazards in the U.S. Pacific Northwest

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Wood, Nathan J.; Soulard, Christopher E.; Wilson, Tamara

2017-01-01

Tsunamis have the potential to cause considerable damage to communities along the U.S. Pacific Northwest coastline. As coastal communities expand over time, the potential societal impact of tsunami inundation changes. To understand how community exposure to tsunami hazards may change in coming decades, we projected future development (i.e. urban, residential, and rural), households, and residents over a 50-year period (2011–2061) along the Washington, Oregon, and northern California coasts. We created a spatially explicit, land use/land cover, state-and-transition simulation model to project future developed land use based on historical development trends. We then compared our development projection results to tsunami-hazard zones associated with a Cascadia subduction zone (CSZ) earthquake. Changes in tsunami-hazard exposure by 2061 were estimated for 50 incorporated cities, 7 tribal reservations, and 17 counties relative to current (2011) estimates. Across the region, 2061 population exposure in tsunami-hazard zones was projected to increase by 3880 households and 6940 residents. The top ten communities with highest population exposure to CSZ-related tsunamis in 2011 are projected to remain the areas with the highest population exposure by 2061. The largest net population increases in tsunami-hazard zones were projected in the unincorporated portions of several counties, including Skagit, Coos, and Humboldt. Land-change simulation modeling of projected future development serves as an exploratory tool aimed at helping local governments understand the hazard-exposure implications of community growth and to include this knowledge in risk-reduction planning.

Perceptions of Agricultural Leadership Academic Programs of 1862 Land-Grant Universities

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Alexander, Jackson C.; Rucker, K. Jill; Graham, Donna L.; Miller, Jefferson D.; Apple, Jason K.

2017-01-01

This study characterized perceptions of agricultural leadership programs in colleges of agriculture, food, life, human, or environmental sciences at 1,862 land-grant institutions. Objectives included describing the need for programs, studying evolution within the discipline, discussing faculty recommendations for future development, and examining…

Shaw Air Force Base Capital Improvement Program Environmental Assessment

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-05-01

storage tank VOC volatile organic compound WINDO Wing Infrastructure Development Outlook WWTP Wastewater Treatment Plant FINDING OF NO...efficiency and synergy. Outdated facilities would be demolished to provide opportunities for future base development . No additional personnel would be...facilities. The demolition of outdated facilities would provide more opportunities for future development that would be more consistent with existing land

Developing a top-down land-use management procedure for fish habitat enhancement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chiang, Li-Chi; Lin, Yu-Pin; Wu, Chen-Huan

2013-04-01

Land-use change can influence stream ecosystem and alter instream physical, chemical and biological habitat. For example, urbanization usually contributes to increasing sediment loadings to streams and inappropriate agricultural management results in degradation of stream water quality. Watershed model is an effective way to forecast the watershed response to different land-use change scenarios. We developed a top-down approach from the watershed scale to the microscale by combining the habitat model, land-use change model and watershed hydrological model. This approach can assist land-use planner to make optimal decisions with fish habitat enhancement. The study was conducted in Datuan Stream, located in Tamsui District, New Taipei City and the target species is monk goby (Sicyopterus japonicus). The spatially explicit land-use change model, CLUE-s was first applied to project several future land-use scenarios and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was then applied to simulate streamflow for different land-use scenarios. The simulated streamflow were used as input data for simulating river habitat, where Habitat Suitability Analysis is one of the most important processes. The relationship between target species and multiple environmental factors of habitat was first developed using the Habitat suitability index (HSI). In this study, we used fish presence probabilities for each velocity and water depth to establish different HSI functions under 4 flow conditions (slack, riffle, pool and run) using genetic programming (GP). The physical habitat model, River 2D, was then applied to simulate the river section and calculate weighted usable area (WUA). Based on the WUA results for different land-use scenarios, we further evaluated the relationships between WUA and land-use/landscape patterns using a spatial pattern analysis program, Fragstats. The results showed that by using the habitat model for classified flows, the habitat suitability curve which reflects different activities of fish (ex: spawning, preying) is more practical. Moreover, the proposed land-use management procedure can be useful for future land-use planning with fish habitat conservation.

Working with South Florida County Planners to Understand and Mitigate Uncertain Climate Risks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knopman, D.; Groves, D. G.; Berg, N.

2017-12-01

This talk describes a novel approach for evaluating climate change vulnerabilities and adaptations in Southeast Florida to support long-term resilience planning. The work is unique in that it combines state-of-the-art hydrologic modeling with the region's long-term land use and transportation plans to better assess the future climate vulnerability and adaptations for the region. Addressing uncertainty in future projections is handled through the use of decisionmaking under deep uncertainty methods. Study findings, including analysis of key tradeoffs, were conveyed to the region's stakeholders through an innovative web-based decision support tool. This project leverages existing groundwater models spanning Miami-Dade and Broward Counties developed by the USGS, along with projections of land use and asset valuations for Miami-Dade and Broward County planning agencies. Model simulations are executed on virtual cloud-based servers for a highly scalable and parallelized platform. Groundwater elevations and the saltwater-freshwater interface and intrusion zones from the integrated modeling framework are analyzed under a wide range of long-term climate futures, including projected sea level rise and precipitation changes. The hydrologic hazards are then combined with current and future land use and asset valuation projections to estimate assets at risk across the range of futures. Lastly, an interactive decision support tool highlights the areas with critical climate vulnerabilities; distinguishes between vulnerability due to new development, increased climate hazards, or both; and provides guidance for adaptive management and development practices and decisionmaking in Southeast Florida.

Research on Decision-Making Support of Chineserural Land Tenure Information System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tan, Jun; Su, Hongyou

Since 1949, the information of land tenure has a positive effect on defining the scope of collective land and state-owned land, implementing the system of cultivated land protection and land use control, designing general land use planning, etc. But as the economic and social development, the existing land tenure information is not appropriate anymore and results in many problems. The emphasis in the near future should be placed on establishing rural land tenure information system including cadastral management system, the uniform property registration system and cadastral management information system, defining the scope and content of various collective land ownership, securing peasants' land tenure rights, shortening the gap between urban and rural areas, all of which will guarantee the effective use of information of land tenure for the government's decision-making.

Estimated impact of global population growth on future wilderness extent

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dumont, E.

2012-06-01

Wilderness areas in the world are threatened by the environmental impacts of the growing global human population. This study estimates the impact of birth rate on the future surface area of biodiverse wilderness and on the proportion of this area without major extinctions. The following four drivers are considered: human population growth (1), agricultural efficiency (2), groundwater drawdown by irrigation (3), and non-agricultural space used by humans (buildings, gardens, roads, etc.) (4). This study indicates that the surface area of biodiverse unmanaged land will reduce with about 5.4% between 2012 and 2050. Further, it indicates that the biodiverse land without major extinctions will reduce with about 10.5%. These percentages are based on a commonly used population trajectory which assumes that birth rates across the globe will reduce in a similar way as has occurred in the past in many developed countries. Future birth rate is however very uncertain. Plausible future birth rates lower than the expected rates lead to much smaller reductions in surface area of biodiverse unmanaged land (0.7% as opposed to 5.4%), and a reduction in the biodiverse land without major extinctions of about 5.6% (as opposed to 10.5%). This indicates that birth rate is an important factor influencing the quality and quantity of wilderness remaining in the future.

Decision analysis and risk models for land development affecting infrastructure systems.

PubMed

Thekdi, Shital A; Lambert, James H

2012-07-01

Coordination and layering of models to identify risks in complex systems such as large-scale infrastructure of energy, water, and transportation is of current interest across application domains. Such infrastructures are increasingly vulnerable to adjacent commercial and residential land development. Land development can compromise the performance of essential infrastructure systems and increase the costs of maintaining or increasing performance. A risk-informed approach to this topic would be useful to avoid surprise, regret, and the need for costly remedies. This article develops a layering and coordination of models for risk management of land development affecting infrastructure systems. The layers are: system identification, expert elicitation, predictive modeling, comparison of investment alternatives, and implications of current decisions for future options. The modeling layers share a focus on observable factors that most contribute to volatility of land development and land use. The relevant data and expert evidence include current and forecasted growth in population and employment, conservation and preservation rules, land topography and geometries, real estate assessments, market and economic conditions, and other factors. The approach integrates to a decision framework of strategic considerations based on assessing risk, cost, and opportunity in order to prioritize needs and potential remedies that mitigate impacts of land development to the infrastructure systems. The approach is demonstrated for a 5,700-mile multimodal transportation system adjacent to 60,000 tracts of potential land development. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

Forecasting land cover change impacts on drinking water treatment costs in Minneapolis, Minnesota

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woznicki, S. A.; Wickham, J.

2017-12-01

Source protection is a critical aspect of drinking water treatment. The benefits of protecting source water quality in reducing drinking water treatment costs are clear. However, forecasting the impacts of environmental change on source water quality and its potential to influence future treatment processes is lacking. The drinking water treatment plant in Minneapolis, MN has recognized that land cover change threatens water quality in their source watershed, the Upper Mississippi River Basin (UMRB). Over 1,000 km2 of forests, wetlands, and grasslands in the UMRB were lost to agriculture from 2008-2013. This trend, coupled with a projected population increase of one million people in Minnesota by 2030, concerns drinking water treatment plant operators in Minneapolis with respect to meeting future demand for clean water in the UMRB. The objective of this study is to relate land cover change (forest and wetland loss, agricultural expansion, urbanization) to changes in treatment costs for the Minneapolis, MN drinking water utility. To do this, we first developed a framework to determine the relationship between land cover change and water quality in the context of recent historical changes and projected future changes in land cover. Next we coupled a watershed model, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to projections of land cover change from the FOREcasting SCEnarios of Land-use Change (FORE-SCE) model for the mid-21st century. Using historical Minneapolis drinking water treatment data (chemical usage and costs), source water quality in the UMRB was linked to changes in treatment requirements as a function of projected future land cover change. These analyses will quantify the value of natural landscapes in protecting drinking water quality and future treatment processes requirements. In addition, our study provides the Minneapolis drinking water utility with information critical to their planning and capital improvement process.

Flood projections within the Niger River Basin under future land use and climate change.

PubMed

Aich, Valentin; Liersch, Stefan; Vetter, Tobias; Fournet, Samuel; Andersson, Jafet C M; Calmanti, Sandro; van Weert, Frank H A; Hattermann, Fred F; Paton, Eva N

2016-08-15

This study assesses future flood risk in the Niger River Basin (NRB), for the first time considering the simultaneous effects of both projected climate change and land use changes. For this purpose, an ecohydrological process-based model (SWIM) was set up and validated for past climate and land use dynamics of the entire NRB. Model runs for future flood risks were conducted with an ensemble of 18 climate models, 13 of them dynamically downscaled from the CORDEX Africa project and five statistically downscaled Earth System Models. Two climate and two land use change scenarios were used to cover a broad range of potential developments in the region. Two flood indicators (annual 90th percentile and the 20-year return flood) were used to assess the future flood risk for the Upper, Middle and Lower Niger as well as the Benue. The modeling results generally show increases of flood magnitudes when comparing a scenario period in the near future (2021-2050) with a base period (1976-2005). Land use effects are more uncertain, but trends and relative changes for the different catchments of the NRB seem robust. The dry areas of the Sahelian and Sudanian regions of the basin show a particularly high sensitivity to climatic and land use changes, with an alarming increase of flood magnitudes in parts. A scenario with continuing transformation of natural vegetation into agricultural land and urbanization intensifies the flood risk in all parts of the NRB, while a "regreening" scenario can reduce flood magnitudes to some extent. Yet, land use change effects were smaller when compared to the effects of climate change. In the face of an already existing adaptation deficit to catastrophic flooding in the region, the authors argue for a mix of adaptation and mitigation efforts in order to reduce the flood risk in the NRB. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Competition for land

PubMed Central

Smith, Pete; Gregory, Peter J.; van Vuuren, Detlef; Obersteiner, Michael; Havlík, Petr; Rounsevell, Mark; Woods, Jeremy; Stehfest, Elke; Bellarby, Jessica

2010-01-01

A key challenge for humanity is how a future global population of 9 billion can all be fed healthily and sustainably. Here, we review how competition for land is influenced by other drivers and pressures, examine land-use change over the past 20 years and consider future changes over the next 40 years. Competition for land, in itself, is not a driver affecting food and farming in the future, but is an emergent property of other drivers and pressures. Modelling studies suggest that future policy decisions in the agriculture, forestry, energy and conservation sectors could have profound effects, with different demands for land to supply multiple ecosystem services usually intensifying competition for land in the future. In addition to policies addressing agriculture and food production, further policies addressing the primary drivers of competition for land (population growth, dietary preference, protected areas, forest policy) could have significant impacts in reducing competition for land. Technologies for increasing per-area productivity of agricultural land will also be necessary. Key uncertainties in our projections of competition for land in the future relate predominantly to uncertainties in the drivers and pressures within the scenarios, in the models and data used in the projections and in the policy interventions assumed to affect the drivers and pressures in the future. PMID:20713395

Historical and future perspectives of global soil carbon response to climate and land-use changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eglin, T.; Ciais, P.; Piao, S. L.; Barre, P.; Bellassen, V.; Cadule, P.; Chenu, C.; Gasser, T.; Koven, C.; Reichstein, M.; Smith, P.

2010-11-01

ABSTRACT In this paper, we attempt to analyse the respective influences of land-use and climate changes on the global and regional balances of soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks. Two time periods are analysed: the historical period 1901-2000 and the period 2000-2100. The historical period is analysed using a synthesis of published data as well as new global and regional model simulations, and the future is analysed using models only. Historical land cover changes have resulted globally in SOC release into the atmosphere. This human induced SOC decrease was nearly balanced by the net SOC increase due to higher CO2 and rainfall. Mechanization of agriculture after the 1950s has accelerated SOC losses in croplands, whereas development of carbon-sequestering practices over the past decades may have limited SOC loss from arable soils. In some regions (Europe, China and USA), croplands are currently estimated to be either a small C sink or a small source, but not a large source of CO2 to the atmosphere. In the future, according to terrestrial biosphere and climate models projections, both climate and land cover changes might cause a net SOC loss, particularly in tropical regions. The timing, magnitude, and regional distribution of future SOC changes are all highly uncertain. Reducing this uncertainty requires improving future anthropogenic CO2 emissions and land-use scenarios and better understanding of biogeochemical processes that control SOC turnover, for both managed and un-managed ecosystems.

Future V/STOL Aircraft For The Pacific Basin

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Albers, James A.; Zuk, John

1992-01-01

Report describes geography and transportation needs of Asian Pacific region, and describes aircraft configurations suitable for region and compares performances. Examines applications of high-speed rotorcraft, vertical/short-takeoff-and-landing (V/STOL) aircraft, and short-takeoff-and landing (STOL) aircraft. Configurations benefit commerce, tourism, and development of resources.

Innovative hazard detection and avoidance strategy for autonomous safe planetary landing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Xiuqiang; Li, Shuang; Tao, Ting

2016-09-01

Autonomous hazard detection and avoidance (AHDA) is one of the key technologies for future safe planetary landing missions. In this paper, we address the latest progress on planetary autonomous hazard detection and avoidance technologies. First, the innovative autonomous relay hazard detection and avoidance strategy adopted in Chang'e-3 lunar soft landing mission and its flight results are reported in detail. Second, two new conceptual candidate schemes of hazard detection and avoidance are presented based on the Chang'e-3 AHDA system and the latest developing technologies for the future planetary missions, and some preliminary testing results are also given. Finally, the related supporting technologies for the two candidate schemes above are analyzed.

SEEMLA: 'Filling the gap' - The Future of bioenergy in the EU and the role of biomass from marginal lands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baumgarten, Wibke; Kerckow, Birger

2017-04-01

The main objective of the H2020 funded EU project SEEMLA is the establishment of suitable innovative land-use strategies for a sustainable production of plant-based energy on marginal lands while improving general ecosystem services. In the context of the German Renewable Energy Sources Act (EEG, Erneuerbare Energien Gesetz) and the European Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) a concept should be developed with SEEMLA for a sustainable use of domestic biomass in order to be able to 'fill the gap' of the future demand in renewable resources as an energy source till 2050. The project partner countries are Italy, the Ukraine and Greece besides Germany.

The Land Use Model Intercomparison Project (LUMIP) contribution to CMIP6: rationale and experimental design

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lawrence, David M.; Hurtt, George C.; Arneth, Almut; Brovkin, Victor; Calvin, Kate V.; Jones, Andrew D.; Jones, Chris D.; Lawrence, Peter J.; de Noblet-Ducoudré, Nathalie; Pongratz, Julia; Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Shevliakova, Elena

2016-09-01

Human land-use activities have resulted in large changes to the Earth's surface, with resulting implications for climate. In the future, land-use activities are likely to expand and intensify further to meet growing demands for food, fiber, and energy. The Land Use Model Intercomparison Project (LUMIP) aims to further advance understanding of the impacts of land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) on climate, specifically addressing the following questions. (1) What are the effects of LULCC on climate and biogeochemical cycling (past-future)? (2) What are the impacts of land management on surface fluxes of carbon, water, and energy, and are there regional land-management strategies with the promise to help mitigate climate change? In addressing these questions, LUMIP will also address a range of more detailed science questions to get at process-level attribution, uncertainty, data requirements, and other related issues in more depth and sophistication than possible in a multi-model context to date. There will be particular focus on the separation and quantification of the effects on climate from LULCC relative to all forcings, separation of biogeochemical from biogeophysical effects of land use, the unique impacts of land-cover change vs. land-management change, modulation of land-use impact on climate by land-atmosphere coupling strength, and the extent to which impacts of enhanced CO2 concentrations on plant photosynthesis are modulated by past and future land use.LUMIP involves three major sets of science activities: (1) development of an updated and expanded historical and future land-use data set, (2) an experimental protocol for specific LUMIP experiments for CMIP6, and (3) definition of metrics and diagnostic protocols that quantify model performance, and related sensitivities, with respect to LULCC. In this paper, we describe LUMIP activity (2), i.e., the LUMIP simulations that will formally be part of CMIP6. These experiments are explicitly designed to be complementary to simulations requested in the CMIP6 DECK and historical simulations and other CMIP6 MIPs including ScenarioMIP, C4MIP, LS3MIP, and DAMIP. LUMIP includes a two-phase experimental design. Phase one features idealized coupled and land-only model simulations designed to advance process-level understanding of LULCC impacts on climate, as well as to quantify model sensitivity to potential land-cover and land-use change. Phase two experiments focus on quantification of the historic impact of land use and the potential for future land management decisions to aid in mitigation of climate change. This paper documents these simulations in detail, explains their rationale, outlines plans for analysis, and describes a new subgrid land-use tile data request for selected variables (reporting model output data separately for primary and secondary land, crops, pasture, and urban land-use types). It is essential that modeling groups participating in LUMIP adhere to the experimental design as closely as possible and clearly report how the model experiments were executed.

The Land Use Model Intercomparison Project (LUMIP) contribution to CMIP6: rationale and experimental design

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lawrence, David M.; Hurtt, George C.; Arneth, Almut

Human land-use activities have resulted in large changes to the Earth's surface, with resulting implications for climate. In the future, land-use activities are likely to expand and intensify further to meet growing demands for food, fiber, and energy. The Land Use Model Intercomparison Project (LUMIP) aims to further advance understanding of the impacts of land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) on climate, specifically addressing the following questions. (1) What are the effects of LULCC on climate and biogeochemical cycling (past-future)? (2) What are the impacts of land management on surface fluxes of carbon, water, and energy, and are there regional land-managementmore » st rategies with the promise to help mitigate climate change? In addressing these questions, LUMIP will also address a range of more detailed science questions to get at process-level attribution, uncertainty, data requirements, and other related issues in more depth and sophistication than possible in a multi-model context to date. There will be particular focus on the separation and quantification of the effects on climate from LULCC relative to all forcings, separation of biogeochemical from biogeophysical effects of land use, the unique impacts of land-cover change vs. land-management change, modulation of land-use impact on climate by land-atmosphere coupling strength, and the extent to which impacts of enhanced CO 2 concentrations on plant photosynthesis are modulated by past and future land use.LUMIP involves three major sets of science activities: (1) development of an updated and expanded historical and future land-use data set, (2) an experimental protocol for specific LUMIP experiments for CMIP6, and (3) definition of metrics and diagnostic protocols that quantify model performance, and related sensitivities, with respect to LULCC. In this paper, we describe LUMIP activity (2), i.e., the LUMIP simulations that will formally be part of CMIP6. These experiments are explicitly designed to be complementary to simulations requested in the CMIP6 DECK and historical simulations and other CMIP6 MIPs including ScenarioMIP, C4MIP, LS3MIP, and DAMIP. LUMIP includes a two-phase experimental design. Phase one features idealized coupled and land-only model simulations designed to advance process-level understanding of LULCC impacts on climate, as well as to quantify model sensitivity to potential land-cover and land-use change. Phase two experiments focus on quantification of the historic impact of land use and the potential for future land management decisions to aid in mitigation of climate change. This paper documents these simulations in detail, explains their rationale, outlines plans for analysis, and describes a new subgrid land-use tile data request for selected variables (reporting model output data separately for primary and secondary land, crops, pasture, and urban land-use types). It is essential that modeling groups participating in LUMIP adhere to the experimental design as closely as possible and clearly report how the model experiments were executed.« less

The Land Use Model Intercomparison Project (LUMIP) contribution to CMIP6: rationale and experimental design

DOE PAGES

Lawrence, David M.; Hurtt, George C.; Arneth, Almut; ...

2016-09-02

Human land-use activities have resulted in large changes to the Earth's surface, with resulting implications for climate. In the future, land-use activities are likely to expand and intensify further to meet growing demands for food, fiber, and energy. The Land Use Model Intercomparison Project (LUMIP) aims to further advance understanding of the impacts of land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) on climate, specifically addressing the following questions. (1) What are the effects of LULCC on climate and biogeochemical cycling (past-future)? (2) What are the impacts of land management on surface fluxes of carbon, water, and energy, and are there regional land-managementmore » st rategies with the promise to help mitigate climate change? In addressing these questions, LUMIP will also address a range of more detailed science questions to get at process-level attribution, uncertainty, data requirements, and other related issues in more depth and sophistication than possible in a multi-model context to date. There will be particular focus on the separation and quantification of the effects on climate from LULCC relative to all forcings, separation of biogeochemical from biogeophysical effects of land use, the unique impacts of land-cover change vs. land-management change, modulation of land-use impact on climate by land-atmosphere coupling strength, and the extent to which impacts of enhanced CO 2 concentrations on plant photosynthesis are modulated by past and future land use.LUMIP involves three major sets of science activities: (1) development of an updated and expanded historical and future land-use data set, (2) an experimental protocol for specific LUMIP experiments for CMIP6, and (3) definition of metrics and diagnostic protocols that quantify model performance, and related sensitivities, with respect to LULCC. In this paper, we describe LUMIP activity (2), i.e., the LUMIP simulations that will formally be part of CMIP6. These experiments are explicitly designed to be complementary to simulations requested in the CMIP6 DECK and historical simulations and other CMIP6 MIPs including ScenarioMIP, C4MIP, LS3MIP, and DAMIP. LUMIP includes a two-phase experimental design. Phase one features idealized coupled and land-only model simulations designed to advance process-level understanding of LULCC impacts on climate, as well as to quantify model sensitivity to potential land-cover and land-use change. Phase two experiments focus on quantification of the historic impact of land use and the potential for future land management decisions to aid in mitigation of climate change. This paper documents these simulations in detail, explains their rationale, outlines plans for analysis, and describes a new subgrid land-use tile data request for selected variables (reporting model output data separately for primary and secondary land, crops, pasture, and urban land-use types). It is essential that modeling groups participating in LUMIP adhere to the experimental design as closely as possible and clearly report how the model experiments were executed.« less

Population stress: A spatiotemporal analysis of population change and land development at the county level in the contiguous United States, 2001-2011.

PubMed

Chi, Guangqing; Ho, Hung Chak

2018-01-01

The past century has witnessed rapidly increasing population-land conflicts due to exponential population growth and its many consequences. Although the measures of population-land conflicts are many, there lacks a model that appropriately considers both the social and physical contexts of population-land conflicts. In this study we introduce the concept of population stress , which identifies areas with populations growing faster than the lands available for sustainable development. Specifically, population stress areas are identified by comparing population growth and land development as measured by land developability in the contiguous United States from 2001 to 2011. Our approach is based on a combination of spatial multicriteria analysis, zonal statistics, and spatiotemporal modeling. We found that the population growth of a county is associated with the decrease of land developability, along with the spatial influences of surrounding counties. The Midwest and the traditional "Deep South" counties would have less population stress with future land development, whereas the Southeast Coast, Washington State, Northern Texas, and the Southwest would face more stress due to population growth that is faster than the loss of suitable lands for development. The factors contributing to population stress may differ from place to place. Our population stress concept is useful and innovative for understanding population stress due to land development and can be applied to other regions as well as global research. It can act as a basis towards developing coherent sustainable land use policies. Coordination among local governments and across different levels of governments in the twenty-first century is a must for effective land use planning.

Futures of global urban expansion: uncertainties and implications for biodiversity conservation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Güneralp, B.; Seto, K. C.

2013-03-01

Urbanization will place significant pressures on biodiversity across the world. However, there are large uncertainties in the amount and location of future urbanization, particularly urban land expansion. Here, we present a global analysis of urban extent circa 2000 and probabilistic forecasts of urban expansion for 2030 near protected areas and in biodiversity hotspots. We estimate that the amount of urban land within 50 km of all protected area boundaries will increase from 450 000 km2 circa 2000 to 1440 000 ± 65 000 km2 in 2030. Our analysis shows that protected areas around the world will experience significant increases in urban land within 50 km of their boundaries. China will experience the largest increase in urban land near protected areas with 304 000 ± 33 000 km2 of new urban land to be developed within 50 km of protected area boundaries. The largest urban expansion in biodiversity hotspots, over 100 000 ± 25 000 km2, is forecasted to occur in South America. Uncertainties in the forecasts of the amount and location of urban land expansion reflect uncertainties in their underlying drivers including urban population and economic growth. The forecasts point to the need to reconcile urban development and biodiversity conservation strategies.

Integrated dynamic landscape analysis and modeling system (IDLAMS) : installation manual.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Li, Z.; Majerus, K. A.; Sundell, R. C.

The Integrated Dynamic Landscape Analysis and Modeling System (IDLAMS) is a prototype, integrated land management technology developed through a joint effort between Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) and the US Army Corps of Engineers Construction Engineering Research Laboratories (USACERL). Dr. Ronald C. Sundell, Ms. Pamela J. Sydelko, and Ms. Kimberly A. Majerus were the principal investigators (PIs) for this project. Dr. Zhian Li was the primary software developer. Dr. Jeffrey M. Keisler, Mr. Christopher M. Klaus, and Mr. Michael C. Vogt developed the decision analysis component of this project. It was developed with funding support from the Strategic Environmental Research andmore » Development Program (SERDP), a land/environmental stewardship research program with participation from the US Department of Defense (DoD), the US Department of Energy (DOE), and the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). IDLAMS predicts land conditions (e.g., vegetation, wildlife habitats, and erosion status) by simulating changes in military land ecosystems for given training intensities and land management practices. It can be used by military land managers to help predict the future ecological condition for a given land use based on land management scenarios of various levels of training intensity. It also can be used as a tool to help land managers compare different land management practices and further determine a set of land management activities and prescriptions that best suit the needs of a specific military installation.« less

Status and future transition of rapid urbanizing landscape in central Western Ghats - CA based approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bharath, S..; Rajan, K. S.; Ramachandra, T. V.

2014-11-01

The land use changes in forested landscape are highly complex and dynamic, affected by the natural, socio-economic, cultural, political and other factors. The remote sensing (RS) and geographical information system (GIS) techniques coupled with multi-criteria evaluation functions such as Markov-cellular automata (CA-Markov) model helps in analysing intensity, extent and future forecasting of human activities affecting the terrestrial biosphere. Karwar taluk of Central Western Ghats in Karnataka state, India has seen rapid transitions in its forest cover due to various anthropogenic activities, primarily driven by major industrial activities. A study based on Landsat and IRS derived data along with CA-Markov method has helped in characterizing the patterns and trends of land use changes over a period of 2004-2013, expected transitions was predicted for a set of scenarios through 2013-2022. The analysis reveals the loss of pristine forest cover from 75.51% to 67.36% (1973 to 2013) and increase in agriculture land as well as built-up area of 8.65% (2013), causing impact on local flora and fauna. The other factors driving these changes are the aggregated level of demand for land, local and regional effects of land use activities such as deforestation, improper practices in expansion of agriculture and infrastructure development, deteriorating natural resources availability. The spatio temporal models helped in visualizing on-going changes apart from prediction of likely changes. The CA-Markov based analysis provides us insights into the localized changes impacting these regions and can be useful in developing appropriate mitigation management approaches based on the modelled future impacts. This necessitates immediate measures for minimizing the future impacts.

Quantifying the impact of land use change on hydrological responses in the Upper Ganga Basin, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsarouchi, Georgia-Marina; Mijic, Ana; Moulds, Simon; Chawla, Ila; Mujumdar, Pradeep; Buytaert, Wouter

2013-04-01

Quantifying how changes in land use affect the hydrological response at the river basin scale is a challenge in hydrological science and especially in the tropics where many regions are considered data sparse. Earlier work by the authors developed and used high-resolution, reconstructed land cover maps for northern India, based on satellite imagery and historic land-use maps for the years 1984, 1998 and 2010. Large-scale land use changes and their effects on landscape patterns can impact water supply in a watershed by altering hydrological processes such as evaporation, infiltration, surface runoff, groundwater discharge and stream flow. Three land use scenarios were tested to explore the sensitivity of the catchment's response to land use changes: (a) historic land use of 1984 with integrated evolution to 2010; (b) land use of 2010 remaining stable; and (c) hypothetical future projection of land use for 2030. The future scenario was produced with Markov chain analysis and generation of transition probability matrices, indicating transition potentials from one land use class to another. The study used socio-economic (population density), geographic (distances to roads and rivers, and location of protected areas) and biophysical drivers (suitability of soil for agricultural production, slope, aspect, and elevation). The distributed version of the land surface model JULES was integrated at a resolution of 0.01° for the years 1984 to 2030. Based on a sensitivity analysis, the most sensitive parameters were identified. Then, the model was calibrated against measured daily stream flow data. The impact of land use changes was investigated by calculating annual variations in hydrological components, differences in annual stream flow and surface runoff during the simulation period. The land use changes correspond to significant differences on the long-term hydrologic fluxes for each scenario. Once analysed from a future water resources perspective, the results will be beneficial in constructing decision support tools for regional land-use planning and management.

Protecting Future Biodiversity via Re-allocation of Future Land-use Change Patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chini, L. P.; Hurtt, G. C.; Jantz, S.; Brooks, T.; Leon, C.; Waldhoff, S.; Edmonds, J.

2013-12-01

Future scenarios, such as the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), are typically designed to meet a radiative forcing target while also producing enough food and energy for a growing population. In the assessment process, impacts of these scenarios for other important variables such as biodiversity loss are considered 'downstream', after the future climate has been simulated within Earth System Models. However, the direct land-use impacts associated with future scenarios often have as much impact on these issues as the changing climate; in addition, many different patterns of land-use can result in the same radiative forcing target. In the case of biodiversity loss, one of the greatest contributors to species extinction is the loss of habitat such as primary forest, which is a direct result of land-use change decisions. By considering issues such as the preservation of future biodiversity 'up-front' in the scenario process, we can design a scenario that not only meets a radiative forcing target and feeds a growing planet, but also preserves as much habitat as possible through careful spatial allocation of future land-use change. Our Global Land-use Model (GLM) is used to provide 'harmonized' land-use data for the RCP process. GLM preserves as much information as possible from the Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) while spatially allocating regional IAM land-use change data, ensuring a continuous transition from historical to future land-use states, and producing annual, gridded (0.5°×0.5°), fractional land-use states and all associated transitions. In this presentation we will present results from new GLM simulations in which land-use change decisions are constrained to meet the mutual goals of protecting important eco-regions (e.g. biodiversity hotspots) from future land-use change, providing enough food and fiber for a growing planet, and remaining consistent with the radiative forcing targets of the future scenarios. Trade-offs between agricultural demand and biodiversity protection were needed in some scenarios, but by constraining the land-use decisions to protect future biodiversity, an estimated 10-25% of species could be saved from loss between 2005 and 2100 (Jantz et al. 2013, in prep).

Current and Future Urban Stormwater Flooding Scenarios in the Southeast Florida Coasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huq, E.; Abdul-Aziz, O. I.

2016-12-01

This study computed rainfall-fed stormwater flooding under the historical and future reference scenarios for the Southeast Coasts Basin of Florida. A large-scale, mechanistic rainfall-runoff model was developed using the U.S. E.P.A. Storm Water Management Model (SWMM 5.1). The model parameterized important processes of urban hydrology, groundwater, and sea level, while including hydroclimatological variables and land use features. The model was calibrated and validated with historical streamflow data. It was then used to estimate the sensitivity of stormwater runoff to the reference changes in hydroclimatological variables (rainfall and evapotranspiration) and different land use/land cover features (imperviousness, roughness). Furthermore, historical (1970-2000) and potential 2050s stormwater budgets were also estimated for the Florida Southeast Coasts Basin by incorporating climatic projections from different GCMs and RCMs, as well as by using relevant projections of sea level and land use/cover. Comparative synthesis of the historical and future scenarios along with the results of sensitivity analysis can aid in efficient management of stormwater flooding for the southeast Florida coasts and similar urban centers under a changing regime of climate, sea level, land use/cover and hydrology.

Is UN Sustainable Development Goal 15 relevant to governing the intimate land-use/groundwater linkage?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Foster, Stephen

2018-05-01

The close link between land use and groundwater has long been recognised, but not widely translated into integrated policy and management practices. Common understanding is needed to facilitate cross-sector dialogue on governance. The process of land-use planning advocated by the United Nations Sustainable Development Goal (UN-SDG) 15 for 2030, coupled with the launch of an independent global land-use monitoring initiative known as Land Matrix, appear to provide windows of opportunity for hydrogeologists to make specific proposals for the inclusion of groundwater protection needs in national land-use plans and the consideration of groundwater sustainability threats from major land deals and contracts. Ignoring the groundwater dimension in land-use management can result in high long-run costs for drinking-water supply and aquatic ecosystems. Thus, coordinated governance based on a coherent set of land-use sustainability criteria, aimed at enhancing both the food and groundwater harvest, is crucial for the future.

Is UN Sustainable Development Goal 15 relevant to governing the intimate land-use/groundwater linkage?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Foster, Stephen

2018-06-01

The close link between land use and groundwater has long been recognised, but not widely translated into integrated policy and management practices. Common understanding is needed to facilitate cross-sector dialogue on governance. The process of land-use planning advocated by the United Nations Sustainable Development Goal (UN-SDG) 15 for 2030, coupled with the launch of an independent global land-use monitoring initiative known as Land Matrix, appear to provide windows of opportunity for hydrogeologists to make specific proposals for the inclusion of groundwater protection needs in national land-use plans and the consideration of groundwater sustainability threats from major land deals and contracts. Ignoring the groundwater dimension in land-use management can result in high long-run costs for drinking-water supply and aquatic ecosystems. Thus, coordinated governance based on a coherent set of land-use sustainability criteria, aimed at enhancing both the food and groundwater harvest, is crucial for the future.

Future Diet Scenarios and Their Effect on Regional and Global Land Use

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gregg, J. S.; Hvid, A.

2011-12-01

Food production has been one of the most significant ways in which humans have changed the surface of the Earth. It is projected that further intensification of agriculture will be necessary to meet a growing population and the increased demand for calories from animal products. This would require substantially more land and resources devoted to animal production. However, globally, the proportion of per capita caloric intake from animal to total caloric intake has remained relatively constant for the last 50 years at slightly above 15%. Nevertheless, there are large discrepancies across regions and through time. For example, northern European countries derive over 30% of calories from animal products, while India is under 10%; between 1961 and 2007, China's per capita consumption of animal calories has increased by over a factor of ten, while in the US, animal calorie consumption has remained constant. In general, per capita consumption of animal products is lower in developing countries than in developed countries, and it is commonly assumed that future animal product consumption will increase as developing countries become wealthier. On the other hand, wealthier countries are remaining constant or even decreasing their proportional consumption of animal calories, and this could be a different way that future diets may evolve. We create different future scenarios for calorie demand from vegetal products, beef, sheep and goat, pork, poultry, and dairy based on historical national trends and estimated income elasticities for these various food products. The extreme scenarios are one in which the world evolves to a highly vegetal calorie diet and, on the other extreme, one in which the world evolves to diets with high meat consumption. Intermediate scenarios include projections of current trends and one in which the world moves to a healthy balanced diet given current recommendations. Using DTU-GCAM, and global integrated assessment model with an included land use module, we explore the effect of these different global and regional diet scenarios on land use up to 2050. The model economically optimizes food production for 14 different regions of the world based on their current and historical land use and land cover, using free market and free trade assumptions.

Description and performance of a digital mobile satellite terminal

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lay, N.; Jedrey, T.; Parkyn, J.; Divsalar, D.

1990-01-01

A major goal of the Mobile Satellite Experiment (MSAT-X) program at the Jet Propulsion Lab (JPL) is the development of an advanced digital terminal for use in land mobile satellite communication. The terminal has been developed to minimize the risk of applying advanced technologies to future commercial mobile satellite systems (MSS). Testing with existing L band satellites was performed in fixed, land mobile and aeronautical mobile environments. JPL's development and tests of its mobile terminal have demonstrated the viability of narrowband digital voice communications in a land mobile environment through geostationary satellites. This paper provides a consolidated description of the terminal architecture and the performance of its individual elements.

Lake Michigan Diversion Accounting land cover change estimation by use of the National Land Cover Dataset and raingage network partitioning analysis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sharpe, Jennifer B.; Soong, David T.

2015-01-01

This study used the National Land Cover Dataset (NLCD) and developed an automated process for determining the area of the three land cover types, thereby allowing faster updating of future models, and for evaluating land cover changes by use of historical NLCD datasets. The study also carried out a raingage partitioning analysis so that the segmentation of land cover and rainfall in each modeled unit is directly applicable to the HSPF modeling. Historical and existing impervious, grass, and forest land acreages partitioned by percentages covered by two sets of raingages for the Lake Michigan diversion SCAs, gaged basins, and ungaged basins are presented.

Future land use threats to range-restricted fish species in the United States

DOE PAGES

Januchowski-Hartley, Stephanie R.; Holtz, Lauren A.; Martinuzzi, Sebastian; ...

2016-03-04

Land use change is one major threat to freshwater biodiversity, and land use change scenarios can help to assess threats from future land use change, thereby guiding proactive conservation decisions. Furthermore, our goal was to identify which range-restricted freshwater fish species are most likely to be affected by land use change and to determine where threats to these species from future land use change in the conterminous United States are most pronounced.

Future land use threats to range-restricted fish species in the United States

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Januchowski-Hartley, Stephanie R.; Holtz, Lauren A.; Martinuzzi, Sebastian

Land use change is one major threat to freshwater biodiversity, and land use change scenarios can help to assess threats from future land use change, thereby guiding proactive conservation decisions. Furthermore, our goal was to identify which range-restricted freshwater fish species are most likely to be affected by land use change and to determine where threats to these species from future land use change in the conterminous United States are most pronounced.

The push and pull of land use policy: reconstructing 150 years of development and conservation land acquisition.

PubMed

Santos, Maria João; Watt, Terry; Pincetl, Stephanie

2014-01-01

The growth of human populations and their resource needs have stressed the conservation of natural land resources. Many policies and programs have been implemented to address the pressures on land resources and notwithstanding this pressure, significant acquisition of land for conservation has occurred throughout history in the U.S., and internationally. Here we assess the on-the-ground result of the evolution of land use policies in California as a pioneer forerunner, in the form of acquisition of land for conservation (i.e. Open Space), and its impact on the rest of the U.S. and beyond. To this end we describe the timeline and spatial representation of the growth of California's conservation network over the last 150 years, and link it to the history of land use policies. We then assess whether conservation land acquisition has consistently grown through time or occurred in specific decades. About ¼ of the state is now designated Open Space. Fewer and larger areas conserved and acquired at the beginning of the 20th century; the conservation network was complemented with a larger number of smaller sized properties. Despite acquisition of land in every decade, the process was uneven (E = 0.3 for California, E = 0.14 ± 0.08 average for the state's counties), mostly due to the large acquisitions and land set asides in the 1900s, followed by 1930s and 1940s. This process was a result of a comprehensive set of legislation that evolved through time, and resulted from the competing needs for development and conservation. Even with the impressive 174,000 km2 of public lands in California, the future of California's natural infrastructure and natural heritage cannot rely solely on these public lands, nor public agencies and their resources. Critically a future course of land preservation relying on the purchase of new lands - in California and beyond - for conservation is tremendously expensive.

The Model Parameter Estimation Experiment (MOPEX): Its structure, connection to other international initiatives and future directions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wagener, T.; Hogue, T.; Schaake, J.; Duan, Q.; Gupta, H.; Andreassian, V.; Hall, A.; Leavesley, G.

2006-01-01

The Model Parameter Estimation Experiment (MOPEX) is an international project aimed at developing enhanced techniques for the a priori estimation of parameters in hydrological models and in land surface parameterization schemes connected to atmospheric models. The MOPEX science strategy involves: database creation, a priori parameter estimation methodology development, parameter refinement or calibration, and the demonstration of parameter transferability. A comprehensive MOPEX database has been developed that contains historical hydrometeorological data and land surface characteristics data for many hydrological basins in the United States (US) and in other countries. This database is being continuously expanded to include basins from various hydroclimatic regimes throughout the world. MOPEX research has largely been driven by a series of international workshops that have brought interested hydrologists and land surface modellers together to exchange knowledge and experience in developing and applying parameter estimation techniques. With its focus on parameter estimation, MOPEX plays an important role in the international context of other initiatives such as GEWEX, HEPEX, PUB and PILPS. This paper outlines the MOPEX initiative, discusses its role in the scientific community, and briefly states future directions.

Development of integrated scenarios to assess future conditions of aquatic ecosystems under water scarcity in the Mediterranean - perspectives from the GLOBAQUA project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huber-Garcia, Verena; Akinsete, Ebun; Gampe, David; Ker Rault, Philippe; Kok, Kasper; Koundouri, Phoebe; Luttik, Joke; Nikulin, Grigory; Pistocchi, Alberto; Souliotis, Ioannis; Ludwig, Ralf

2017-04-01

Water and water-related services are major components of the human wellbeing, and as such are major factors of socio-economic development; yet freshwater systems are under threat by a variety of stressors (organic and inorganic pollution, geomorphological alterations, land cover change, water abstraction, invasive species and pathogens). Water scarcity is most commonly associated with inappropriate water management and resulting river flow reductions. It has become one of the most important drivers of change in freshwater ecosystems. Conjoint occurrence of a myriad of stressors (chemical, geomorphological, biological) under water scarcity will produce novel and unfamiliar synergies and most likely very pronounced effects. Stressors are hierarchically arranged in terms of intensity, frequency and scale, and their effects can be predicted to be from transient to irreversible. Most ecosystems are simulta¬neously exposed to multiple-stress situations. Within the scope of the GLOBAQUA project the effects of multiple stressors on aquatic ecosystems in selected river basins across Europe with a focus on areas suffering from water scarcity are analyzed. In addition, management strategies are improved and adapted with the aim of inhibiting adverse effects on aquatic ecosystems and ensuring the supply with water for all purposes in the study areas also in the future. Policy relevant implications will be given to ensure a best possible status of these aquatic ecosystems also under future conditions. In this context, land use and land cover as well as the meteorological conditions can be seen as two main stressors for the quality and quantity of surface and subsurface water. These factors considerably affect the use and availability of water, especially in regions which already experience water scarcity. If the problem is not addressed correctly, negative effects on biodiversity, water supply as well as important economic consequences may arise. In Europe, many fresh water systems experience this and a worsening of the situation can be expected if actions are not taken. To assess future conditions, spatially distributed, integrated scenarios to drive various impact models are inevitable. These simulations then assess future conditions of aquatic ecosystems, both in water quality and quantity, and in the end provide decision support. To achieve this goal, a modeling framework is set up to develop integrated scenarios of changes in climate, land use and water management. These scenarios are based on storylines around various Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs), as established the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and developed in collaboration with project partners and experts. Major challenges stem from the downscaling of these to the regional scale. Projections of future climate conditions originate from the simulations provided through the EURO-CORDEX project. An ensemble of different General Circulation Models (GCMs) driving various Regional Climate Models (RCMs) is available. After a thorough investigation of these projections and an estimation of the uncertainty envelope, a small subset of models was chosen in a carefully conducted selection procedure, following a cluster analysis. These selected simulations were downscaled to better represent the regional conditions and provide the implications of the RCPs in the storylines. The impacts of the SSPs are represented in spatially distributed land use maps developed through the land use change model iCLUE (Conversion of Land Use and its Effects). In a first step knowledge on past land use change is required and an analysis was carried out based on the CORINE land cover data. Extensive expert surveys have been conducted in the case study areas to determine the most important drivers of these changes, considering both, biophysical and socio-economic variables. The results of these were implemented in iCLUE taking into account dynamic changes of the climate, population and economy. Climate and land use projections will then be applied to provide possible future conditions and various impact modeling activities within the GLOBAQUA project. This approach is favored over a non-integrated approach using only climate projections, and required to develop and test site specific Programs of Measures (PoMs). Eventually, decision support can be provided to local authorities for effective PoMs. [The funding for this research through the FP7-project GLOBAQUA by the European Commission (GA: 603629) is gratefully acknowledged.

76 FR 33352 - Notice of Proposed Withdrawal and Opportunity for Public Meeting; California

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-06-08

... lands while the BLM evaluates the area for renewable energy development, including geothermal leasing... withdrawal is to protect and preserve geothermal, solar, and wind energy study areas for future renewable... period of 20 years, on behalf of the Bureau of Land Management (BLM), to protect and preserve geothermal...

77 FR 14567 - Notice of Grand Staircase-Escalante National Monument Advisory Committee Meeting

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-03-12

... development of a Hole-In-The-Rock corridor management strategy, future meeting dates and other matters as may... DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR Bureau of Land Management [LLUT030000-L17110000-PH0000-24-1A] Notice of Grand Staircase-Escalante National Monument Advisory Committee Meeting AGENCY: Bureau of Land Management...

Land and People, the Growing Pressure.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Harrison, Paul

1983-01-01

A summary and an analysis of the findings of the Land Resources for Populations of the Future project are provided in this report. The project, conducted by the Food and Agriculture Organization, studied the food production capabilities of 117 developing countries to determine how many people they could support at different levels of farming and…

Locally adaptive, spatially explicit projection of US population for 2030 and 2050.

PubMed

McKee, Jacob J; Rose, Amy N; Bright, Edward A; Huynh, Timmy; Bhaduri, Budhendra L

2015-02-03

Localized adverse events, including natural hazards, epidemiological events, and human conflict, underscore the criticality of quantifying and mapping current population. Building on the spatial interpolation technique previously developed for high-resolution population distribution data (LandScan Global and LandScan USA), we have constructed an empirically informed spatial distribution of projected population of the contiguous United States for 2030 and 2050, depicting one of many possible population futures. Whereas most current large-scale, spatially explicit population projections typically rely on a population gravity model to determine areas of future growth, our projection model departs from these by accounting for multiple components that affect population distribution. Modeled variables, which included land cover, slope, distances to larger cities, and a moving average of current population, were locally adaptive and geographically varying. The resulting weighted surface was used to determine which areas had the greatest likelihood for future population change. Population projections of county level numbers were developed using a modified version of the US Census's projection methodology, with the US Census's official projection as the benchmark. Applications of our model include incorporating multiple various scenario-driven events to produce a range of spatially explicit population futures for suitability modeling, service area planning for governmental agencies, consequence assessment, mitigation planning and implementation, and assessment of spatially vulnerable populations.

Regional air quality impacts of future fire emissions in Sumatra and Kalimantan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marlier, Miriam E.; DeFries, Ruth S.; Kim, Patrick S.; Gaveau, David L. A.; Koplitz, Shannon N.; Jacob, Daniel J.; Mickley, Loretta J.; Margono, Belinda A.; Myers, Samuel S.

2015-05-01

Fire emissions associated with land cover change and land management contribute to the concentrations of atmospheric pollutants, which can affect regional air quality and climate. Mitigating these impacts requires a comprehensive understanding of the relationship between fires and different land cover change trajectories and land management strategies. We develop future fire emissions inventories from 2010-2030 for Sumatra and Kalimantan (Indonesian Borneo) to assess the impact of varying levels of forest and peatland conservation on air quality in Equatorial Asia. To compile these inventories, we combine detailed land cover information from published maps of forest extent, satellite fire radiative power observations, fire emissions from the Global Fire Emissions Database, and spatially explicit future land cover projections using a land cover change model. We apply the sensitivities of mean smoke concentrations to Indonesian fire emissions, calculated by the GEOS-Chem adjoint model, to our scenario-based future fire emissions inventories to quantify the different impacts of fires on surface air quality across Equatorial Asia. We find that public health impacts are highly sensitive to the location of fires, with emissions from Sumatra contributing more to smoke concentrations at population centers across the region than Kalimantan, which had higher emissions by more than a factor of two. Compared to business-as-usual projections, protecting peatlands from fires reduces smoke concentrations in the cities of Singapore and Palembang by 70% and 40%, and by 60% for the Equatorial Asian region, weighted by the population in each grid cell. Our results indicate the importance of focusing conservation priorities on protecting both forested (intact or logged) peatlands and non-forested peatlands from fire, even after considering potential leakage of deforestation pressure to other areas, in order to limit the impact of fire emissions on atmospheric smoke concentrations and subsequent health effects.

Tools and methods for evaluating and refining alternative futures for coastal ecosystem management—the Puget Sound Ecosystem Portfolio Model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Byrd, Kristin B.; Kreitler, Jason R.; Labiosa, William B.

2011-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey Puget Sound Ecosystem Portfolio Model (PSEPM) is a decision-support tool that uses scenarios to evaluate where, when, and to what extent future population growth, urban growth, and shoreline development may threaten the Puget Sound nearshore environment. This tool was designed to be used iteratively in a workshop setting in which experts, stakeholders, and decisionmakers discuss consequences to the Puget Sound nearshore within an alternative-futures framework. The PSEPM presents three possible futures of the nearshore by analyzing three growth scenarios developed out to 2060: Status Quo—continuation of current trends; Managed Growth—adoption of an aggressive set of land-use management policies; and Unconstrained Growth—relaxation of land-use restrictions. The PSEPM focuses on nearshore environments associated with barrier and bluff-backed beaches—the most dominant shoreforms in Puget Sound—which represent 50 percent of Puget Sound shorelines by length. This report provides detailed methodologies for development of three submodels within the PSEPM—the Shellfish Pollution Model, the Beach Armoring Index, and the Recreation Visits Model. Results from the PSEPM identify where and when future changes to nearshore ecosystems and ecosystem services will likely occur within the three growth scenarios. Model outputs include maps that highlight shoreline sections where nearshore resources may be at greater risk from upland land-use changes. The background discussed in this report serves to document and supplement model results displayed on the PSEPM Web site located at http://geography.wr.usgs.gov/pugetSound/.

43 CFR 3120.7 - Future interest.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... 43 Public Lands: Interior 2 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Future interest. 3120.7 Section 3120.7 Public Lands: Interior Regulations Relating to Public Lands (Continued) BUREAU OF LAND MANAGEMENT... interest. ...

Land cover as an important factor for landslide risk assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Promper, C.; Glade, T.; Puissant, A.; Malet, J.-P.

2012-04-01

Landcover change is a crucial component of hazard and vulnerability in terms of quantification of possible future landslide risk, and the importance for spatial planners but also individuals is obvious. Damage of property, losses of agricultural land, loss of production but also damaged infrastructures and fatalities may be the result of landslide hazards. To avoid these economic damages as well as possible fatalities in the future, a method of assessing spatial but also temporal patterns of landslides is necessary. This study represents results of landcover modeling as a first step to the proposition of scenario of landslide risk for the future. The method used for future land cover analysis is the CLUE modeling framework combining past and actual observed landcover conditions. The model is based on a statistical relationship between the actual land cover and driving forces. The allocation of landcover pixel is modified by possible autonomous developments and competition between land use types. (Verburg et al. 1999) The study area is located in a district in the alpine foreland of Lower Austria: Waidhofen/Ybbs, of about 130km2. The topography is characterized by narrow valleys, flat plateau and steep slopes. The landcover is characterized by region of densely populated areas in the valley bottom along the Ybbs River, and a series of separated farm houses on the top of the plateau. Population density is about 90 persons / km2 which represent the observed population density of Austria. The initial landcover includes forest, grassland, culture, built-up areas and individual farms. Most of the observed developments are controlled by the topography (along the valleys) and the actual road network. The results of the landcover model show different scenarios of changes in the landslide prone landcover types. These maps will be implemented into hazard analysis but also into vulnerability assessment regarding elements at risk. Verburg, P.H., de Koning, G.H.J., Kok, K., Veldkamp, A. & Bouma, J. 1999. A spatial explicit allocation procedure for modelling the pattern of land use change based upon actual land use. Ecological Modelling 116 (1): 45-61.

River flood risk in Jakarta under scenarios of future change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Budiyono, Yus; Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.; Tollenaar, Daniel; Ward, Philip J.

2016-03-01

Given the increasing impacts of flooding in Jakarta, methods for assessing current and future flood risk are required. In this paper, we use the Damagescanner-Jakarta risk model to project changes in future river flood risk under scenarios of climate change, land subsidence, and land use change. Damagescanner-Jakarta is a simple flood risk model that estimates flood risk in terms of annual expected damage, based on input maps of flood hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. We estimate baseline flood risk at USD 186 million p.a. Combining all future scenarios, we simulate a median increase in risk of +180 % by 2030. The single driver with the largest contribution to that increase is land subsidence (+126 %). We simulated the impacts of climate change by combining two scenarios of sea level rise with simulations of changes in 1-day extreme precipitation totals from five global climate models (GCMs) forced by the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The results are highly uncertain; the median change in risk due to climate change alone by 2030 is a decrease by -46 %, but we simulate an increase in risk under 12 of the 40 GCM-RCP-sea level rise combinations. Hence, we developed probabilistic risk scenarios to account for this uncertainty. If land use change by 2030 takes places according to the official Jakarta Spatial Plan 2030, risk could be reduced by 12 %. However, if land use change in the future continues at the same rate as the last 30 years, large increases in flood risk will take place. Finally, we discuss the relevance of the results for flood risk management in Jakarta.

Lunar lander stage requirements based on the Civil Needs Data Base

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mulqueen, John A.

1992-01-01

This paper examines the lunar lander stages that will be necessary for the future exploration and development of the Moon. Lunar lander stage sizing is discussed based on the projected lunar payloads listed in the Civil Needs Data Base. Factors that will influence the lander stage design are identified and discussed. Some of these factors are (1) lunar orbiting and lunar surface lander bases; (2) implications of direct landing trajectories and landing from a parking orbit; (3) implications of landing site and parking orbit; (4) implications of landing site and parking orbit selection; (5) the use of expendable and reusable lander stages; and (6) the descent/ascent trajectories. Data relating the lunar lander stage design requirements to each of the above factors and others are presented in parametric form. These data will provide useful design data that will be applicable to future mission model modifications and design studies.

The NASA land processes program - Status and future directions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Murphy, R. E.

1984-01-01

For most of the past decade, NASA focused its efforts on the immediate exploitation of space-based sensors in earth-oriented programs. After an assessment of the current situation with respect to the conducted programs, NASA has restructured its earth-oriented programs to concentrate on the scientific use of its satellites while other agencies and private enterprise have assumed responsibility for programs of interest to them. In making this change of direction, NASA has conducted a series of studies to obtain information as a basis for its planning activities regarding future programs. Attention is given to a plan for Land Global Habitability, the development of a basic structure for the land program, a program plan for global biology, and a study on the role of biochemical cycles. The three major facets of the land processes program are discussed along with some examples of current work.

Assessing the impact of urban land cover composition on CO2 flux

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Becker, K.; Hinkle, C.

2013-12-01

Urbanization is an ever increasing trend in global land use change, and has been identified as a key driver of CO2 emissions. Therefore, understanding how urbanization affects CO2 flux across a range of climatic zones and development patterns is critical to projecting the impact of future land use on CO2 flux dynamics. A growing number of studies are applying the eddy covariance method to urban areas to quantify the CO2 flux dynamics of these systems. However, interpretation of eddy covariance data in these urban systems presents a challenge, particularly in areas with high heterogeneity due to a mixing of built and green space. Here we present a study aimed at establishing a relationship between land cover composition and CO2 flux for a heterogeneous urban area of Orlando, FL. CO2 flux has been measured at this site for > 4 years using an open path eddy covariance system. Land cover at this site was classified into built and green space, and relative weight of both land covers were calculated for each 30 min CO2 flux measurement using the Schuepp model and a source area based on +/- one standard deviation of wind direction. The results of this analysis established a relationship between built land cover and CO2 flux within the measured footprint of this urban area. These results, in combination with future projected land use data, will be a valuable resource for providing insight into the impact of future urbanization on CO2 flux dynamics in this region.

Current & future vulnerability of sarasota county Florida to hurricane storm surge & sea level rise

USGS Publications Warehouse

Frazier, T.; Wood, N.; Yarnal, B.

2008-01-01

Coastal communities in portions of the United States are vulnerable to storm-surge inundation from hurricanes and this vulnerability will likely increase, given predicted rises in sea level from climate change and growing coastal development. In this paper, we provide an overview of research to determine current and future societal vulnerability to hurricane storm-surge inundation and to help public officials and planners integrate these scenarios into their long-range land use plans. Our case study is Sarasota County, Florida, where planners face the challenge of balancing increasing population growth and development with the desire to lower vulnerability to storm surge. Initial results indicate that a large proportion of Sarasota County's residential and employee populations are in areas prone to storm-surge inundation from a Category 5 hurricane. This hazard zone increases when accounting for potential sea-level-rise scenarios, thereby putting additional populations at risk. Subsequent project phases involve the development of future land use and vulnerability scenarios in collaboration with local officials. Copyright ASCE 2008.

Simulating the hydrologic impacts of land cover and climate changes in a semi-arid watershed

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Changes in climate and land cover are among the principal variables affecting watershed hydrology.This paper uses a cell-based model to examine the hydrologic impacts of climate and land-cover changes in thesemi-arid Lower Virgin River (LVR) watershed located upstream of Lake Mead, Nevada, USA. The cell-basedmodel is developed by considering direct runoff based on the Soil Conservation Service - Curve Number (SCSCN)method and surplus runoff based on the Thornthwaite water balance theory. After calibration and validation,the model is used to predict LVR discharge under future climate and land-cover changes. The hydrologicsimulation results reveal climate change as the dominant factor and land-cover change as a secondary factor inregulating future river discharge. The combined effects of climate and land-cover changes will slightly increaseriver discharge in summer but substantially decrease discharge in winter. This impact on water resources deservesattention in climate change adaptation planning.This dataset is associated with the following publication:Chen, H., S. Tong, H. Yang, and J. Yang. Simulating the hydrologic impacts of land cover and climate changes in a semi-arid watershed. Hydrological Sciences Journal. IAHS LIMITED, Oxford, UK, 60(10): 1739-1758, (2015).

Integrating ecosystem services analysis into scenario planning practice: accounting for street tree benefits with i-Tree valuation in Central Texas.

PubMed

Hilde, Thomas; Paterson, Robert

2014-12-15

Scenario planning continues to gain momentum in the United States as an effective process for building consensus on long-range community plans and creating regional visions for the future. However, efforts to integrate more sophisticated information into the analytical framework to help identify important ecosystem services have lagged in practice. This is problematic because understanding the tradeoffs of land consumption patterns on ecological integrity is central to mitigating the environmental degradation caused by land use change and new development. In this paper we describe how an ecosystem services valuation model, i-Tree, was integrated into a mainstream scenario planning software tool, Envision Tomorrow, to assess the benefits of public street trees for alternative future development scenarios. The tool is then applied to development scenarios from the City of Hutto, TX, a Central Texas Sustainable Places Project demonstration community. The integrated tool represents a methodological improvement for scenario planning practice, offers a way to incorporate ecosystem services analysis into mainstream planning processes, and serves as an example of how open source software tools can expand the range of issues available for community and regional planning consideration, even in cases where community resources are limited. The tool also offers room for future improvements; feasible options include canopy analysis of various future land use typologies, as well as a generalized street tree model for broader U.S. application. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Temporal dynamics of land use/land cover change and its prediction using CA-ANN model for southwestern coastal Bangladesh.

PubMed

Rahman, M Tauhid Ur; Tabassum, Faheemah; Rasheduzzaman, Md; Saba, Humayra; Sarkar, Lina; Ferdous, Jannatul; Uddin, Syed Zia; Zahedul Islam, A Z M

2017-10-17

Change analysis of land use and land cover (LULC) is a technique to study the environmental degradation and to control the unplanned development. Analysis of the past changing trend of LULC along with modeling future LULC provides a combined opportunity to evaluate and guide the present and future land use policy. The southwest coastal region of Bangladesh, especially Assasuni Upazila of Satkhira District, is the most vulnerable to natural disasters and has faced notable changes in its LULC due to the combined effects of natural and anthropogenic causes. The objectives of this study are to illustrate the temporal dynamics of LULC change in Assasuni Upazila over the last 27 years (i.e., between 1989 and 2015) and also to predict future land use change using CA-ANN (cellular automata and artificial neural network) model for the year 2028. Temporal dynamics of LULC change was analyzed, employing supervised classification of multi-temporal Landsat images. Then, prediction of future LULC was carried out by CA-ANN model using MOLUSCE plugin of QGIS. The analysis of LULC change revealed that the LULC of Assasuni had changed notably during 1989 to 2015. "Bare lands" decreased by 21% being occupied by other land uses, especially by "shrimp farms." Shrimp farm area increased by 25.9% during this period, indicating a major occupational transformation from agriculture to shrimp aquaculture in the study area during the period under study. Reduction in "settlement" area revealed the trend of migration from the Upazila. The predicted LULC for the year 2028 showed that reduction in bare land area would continue and 1595.97 ha bare land would transform into shrimp farm during 2015 to 2028. Also, the impacts of the changing LULC on the livelihood of local people and migration status of the Upazila were analyzed from the data collected through focus group discussions and questionnaire surveys. The analysis revealed that the changing LULC and the occupational shift from paddy cultivation to shrimp farming were related to each other. Around 31.3% of the total respondents stated that at least one of their family members had migrated. Climate-driven southwestern coastal people usually migrate from the vulnerable rural areas towards the nearest relatively safe city due to adverse effects of natural disasters. To control the unplanned development and reduce the internal migration in Assasuni and other coastal areas, a comprehensive land use management plan was suggested that would accommodate the diversified uses of coastal lands and eventually lessen the threats to the life and livelihood of the local people.

Monitoring Snow and Land Ice Using Satellite data in the GMES Project CryoLand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bippus, Gabriele; Nagler, Thomas

2013-04-01

The main objectives of the project "CryoLand - GMES Service Snow and Land Ice" are to develop, implement and validate services for snow, glaciers and lake and river ice products as a Downstream Service within the Global Monitoring for Environment and Security (GMES) program of the European Commission. CryoLand exploits Earth Observation data from current optical and microwave sensors and of the upcoming GMES Sentinel satellite family. The project prepares also the basis for the cryospheric component of the GMES Land Monitoring services. The CryoLand project team consists of 10 partner organisations from Austria, Finland, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland and Romania and is funded by the 7th Framework Program of the European Commission. The CryoLand baseline products for snow include fractional snow extent from optical satellite data, the extent of melting snow from SAR data, and coarse resolution snow water equivalent maps from passive microwave data. Experimental products include maps of snow surface wetness and temperature. The products range from large scale coverage at medium resolution to regional products with high resolution, in order to address a wide user community. Medium resolution optical data (e.g. MODIS, in the near future Sentinel-3) and SAR (ENVISAT ASAR, in the near future Sentinel-1) are the main sources of EO data for generating large scale products in near real time. For generation of regional products high resolution satellite data are used. Glacier products are based on high resolution optical (e.g. SPOT-5, in the near future Sentinel-2) and SAR (TerraSAR-X, in the near future Sentinel-1) data and include glacier outlines, mapping of glacier facies, glacier lakes and ice velocity. The glacier products are generated on users demand. Current test areas are located in the Alps, Norway, Greenland and the Himalayan Mountains. The lake and river ice products include ice extent and its temporal changes and snow extent on ice. The algorithms for these products are in development. One major task of CryoLand is the performance assessment of the products, which is carried out in different environments, climate zones and land cover types, selected jointly with users. Accuracy assessment is done for test areas using in-situ data and very high resolution satellite data. This presentation gives an overview on the processing lines and demonstration products for snow, glacier and lake ice parameters including examples of the product accuracy assessment. An important point of the CryoLand project is the use of advanced information technology, which is applied to process and distribute snow and land ice products in near real time.

Potential Impacts of Future Warming and Land Use Changes on Intra-Urban Heat Exposure in Houston, Texas

PubMed Central

Conlon, Kathryn; Monaghan, Andrew; Hayden, Mary; Wilhelmi, Olga

2016-01-01

Extreme heat events in the United States are projected to become more frequent and intense as a result of climate change. We investigated the individual and combined effects of land use and warming on the spatial and temporal distribution of daily minimum temperature (Tmin) and daily maximum heat index (HImax) during summer in Houston, Texas. Present-day (2010) and near-future (2040) parcel-level land use scenarios were embedded within 1-km resolution land surface model (LSM) simulations. For each land use scenario, LSM simulations were conducted for climatic scenarios representative of both the present-day and near-future periods. LSM simulations assuming present-day climate but 2040 land use patterns led to spatially heterogeneous temperature changes characterized by warmer conditions over most areas, with summer average increases of up to 1.5°C (Tmin) and 7.3°C (HImax) in some newly developed suburban areas compared to simulations using 2010 land use patterns. LSM simulations assuming present-day land use but a 1°C temperature increase above the urban canopy (consistent with warming projections for 2040) yielded more spatially homogeneous metropolitan-wide average increases of about 1°C (Tmin) and 2.5°C (HImax), respectively. LSM simulations assuming both land use and warming for 2040 led to summer average increases of up to 2.5°C (Tmin) and 8.3°C (HImax), with the largest increases in areas projected to be converted to residential, industrial and mixed-use types. Our results suggest that urbanization and climate change may significantly increase the average number of summer days that exceed current threshold temperatures for initiating a heat advisory for metropolitan Houston, potentially increasing population exposure to extreme heat. PMID:26863298

Future land-use scenarios and the loss of wildlife habitats in the southeastern United States.

PubMed

Martinuzzi, Sebastián; Withey, John C; Pidgeon, Anna M; Plantinga, Andrew J; McKerrow, Alexa J; Williams, Steven G; Helmers, David P; Radeloff, Volker C

2015-01-01

Land-use change is a major cause of wildlife habitat loss. Understanding how changes in land-use policies and economic factors can impact future trends in land use and wildlife habitat loss is therefore critical for conservation efforts. Our goal here was to evaluate the consequences of future land-use changes under different conservation policies and crop market conditions on habitat loss for wildlife species in the southeastern United States. We predicted the rates of habitat loss for 336 terrestrial vertebrate species by 2051. We focused on habitat loss due to the expansion of urban, crop, and pasture. Future land-use changes following business-as-usual conditions resulted in relatively low rates of wildlife habitat loss across the entire Southeast, but some ecoregions and species groups experienced much higher habitat loss than others. Increased crop commodity prices exacerbated wildlife habitat loss in most ecoregions, while the implementation of conservation policies (reduced urban sprawl, and payments for land conservation) reduced the projected habitat loss in some regions, to a certain degree. Overall, urban and crop expansion were the main drivers of habitat loss. Reptiles and wildlife species associated with open vegetation (grasslands, open woodlands) were the species groups most vulnerable to future land-use change. Effective conservation of wildlife habitat in the Southeast should give special consideration to future land-use changes, regional variations, and the forces that could shape land-use decisions.

Future land-use scenarios and the loss of wildlife habitats in the southeastern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Martinuzzi, Sebastián; Withey, John C.; Pidgeon, Anna M.; Plantinga, Andrew; McKerrow, Alexa; Williams, Steven G.; Helmers, David P.; Radeloff, Volker C.

2015-01-01

Land-use change is a major cause of wildlife habitat loss. Understanding how changes in land-use policies and economic factors can impact future trends in land use and wildlife habitat loss is therefore critical for conservation efforts. Our goal here was to evaluate the consequences of future land-use changes under different conservation policies and crop market conditions on habitat loss for wildlife species in the southeastern United States. We predicted the rates of habitat loss for 336 terrestrial vertebrate species by 2051. We focused on habitat loss due to the expansion of urban, crop, and pasture. Future land-use changes following business-as-usual conditions resulted in relatively low rates of wildlife habitat loss across the entire Southeast, but some ecoregions and species groups experienced much higher habitat loss than others. Increased crop commodity prices exacerbated wildlife habitat loss in most ecoregions, while the implementation of conservation policies (reduced urban sprawl, and payments for land conservation) reduced the projected habitat loss in some regions, to a certain degree. Overall, urban and crop expansion were the main drivers of habitat loss. Reptiles and wildlife species associated with open vegetation (grasslands, open woodlands) were the species groups most vulnerable to future land-use change. Effective conservation of wildlife habitat in the Southeast should give special consideration to future land-use changes, regional variations, and the forces that could shape land-use decisions.

The global land rush and climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davis, Kyle Frankel; Rulli, Maria Cristina; D'Odorico, Paolo

2015-08-01

Climate change poses a serious global challenge in the face of rapidly increasing human demand for energy and food. A recent phenomenon in which climate change may play an important role is the acquisition of large tracts of land in the developing world by governments and corporations. In the target countries, where land is relatively inexpensive, the potential to increase crop yields is generally high and property rights are often poorly defined. By acquiring land, investors can realize large profits and countries can substantially alter the land and water resources under their control, thereby changing their outlook for meeting future demand. While the drivers, actors, and impacts involved with land deals have received substantial attention in the literature, we propose that climate change plays an important yet underappreciated role, both through its direct effects on agricultural production and through its influence on mitigative or adaptive policy decisions. Drawing from various literature sources as well as a new global database on reported land deals, we trace the evolution of the global land rush and highlight prominent examples in which the role of climate change is evident. We find that climate change—both historical and anticipated—interacts substantially with drivers of land acquisitions, having important implications for the resilience of communities in targeted areas. As a result of this synthesis, we ultimately contend that considerations of climate change should be integrated into future policy decisions relating to the large-scale land acquisitions.

Precision Landing and Hazard Avoidance (PL&HA) Domain

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Robertson, Edward A.; Carson, John M., III

2016-01-01

The Precision Landing and Hazard Avoidance (PL&HA) domain addresses the development, integration, testing, and spaceflight infusion of sensing, processing, and GN&C (Guidance, Navigation and Control) functions critical to the success and safety of future human and robotic exploration missions. PL&HA sensors also have applications to other mission events, such as rendezvous and docking.

WATERSHED-ESTUARY SUSTAINABILITY: WHAT STAKEHOLDERS VALUE

EPA Science Inventory

Sustainable development is defined as "development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs"1. To evaluate the present attributes valued versus the potential effects of development and other land use chang...

Modeling Temporal and Spatial Flows of Ecosystem Services in Chittenden County, VT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Voigt, B. G.; Bagstad, K.; Johnson, G.; Villa, F.

2010-12-01

This paper documents the integration of ARIES (ARtificial Intelligence for Ecosystem Services) with the land use change model UrbanSim to explore the impacts of current and future land use patterns on flood protection and water provision services in Chittenden County, VT. ARIES, an open source modeling platform, is particularly well-suited for measuring, mapping, and modeling the temporal and spatial flows of ecosystem services across the landscape, linking the areas of provision (sources) with human beneficiaries (users) through a spatially explicit agent-based modeling approach. UrbanSim is an open source agent-based land use model designed to facilitate a wide-range of scenarios based on user-specified behavioral assumptions, zoning regulations, and demographic, economic, and infrastructure (e.g. transportation, water, sewer, etc.) parameters. Ecosystem services travel through time and space and are susceptible to disruption and destruction from both natural and anthropogenic perturbations. The conversion of forested or agricultural land to urbanizing uses is replete with a long history of hydrologic impairment, habitat fragmentation, and the degradation of sensitive landscapes. Development decisions are predicated on the presence of landscape characteristics that meet the needs of developers and satisfy the desires of consumers, with minimal consideration of access to or effect on the provision of ecosystem services. The County houses nearly 25% of the state’s population and several employment centers that draw labor from throughout the region. Additionally, the County is expected to maintain modest residential and employment growth over the next 30 years, and will continue to serve as the state’s population and employment center. Expected future growth is likely to adversely affect the remaining farm and forest land in the County in the absence of policies to support sustainable development. We demonstrate how ARIES can be used to quantify changes in ecosystem service provision based on the outcomes of alternative land use change model scenarios. Stakeholder workshops were hosted to develop scenarios relevant to planning for future growth in the County, including alternative zoning regulations, road network improvements, and a range of future population projections. The results of the land use change simulations were passed to ARIES to model flood protection and water provision services for each of the alternative scenarios. We present Bayesian models of the ecosystem services as individual source, sink, and use components coupled with models of temporal and spatial flows of services across the landscape. Specific beneficiaries include homeowners, farmers, and other business property owners. The location choice decisions of residential and non-residential agents under the alternative scenarios resulted in varying access to ecosystem services depending on development density, habitat fragmentation, and the degree of hydrological impairment, among other factors. Modeled outputs include maps depicting flow paths (linking sources to beneficiaries), changes in land use, hotspot locations that are critical to sustain the flow of services across the landscape, and the demand for and supply of the modeled services.

Development and Testing of a New Family of Supersonic Decelerators

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Clark, Ian G.; Adler, Mark; Rivellini, Tommaso P.

2013-01-01

The state of the art in Entry, Descent, and Landing systems for Mars applications is largely based on technologies developed in the late 1960's and early 1970's for the Viking Lander program. Although the 2011 Mars Science Laboratory has made advances in EDL technology, these are predominantly in the areas of entry (new thermal protection systems and guided hypersonic flight) and landing (the sky crane architecture). Increases in entry mass, landed mass, and landed altitude beyond MSL capabilities will require advances predominantly in the field of supersonic decelerators. With this in mind, a multi-year program has been initiated to advance three new types of supersonic decelerators that would enable future large-robotic and human-precursor class missions to Mars.

Land Use, climate change and BIOdiversity in cultural landscapes (LUBIO): Assessing feedbacks and promoting land-use strategies towards a viable future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dullinger, Iwona; Bohner, Andreas; Dullinger, Stefan; Essl, Franz; Gaube, Veronika; Haberl, Helmut; Mayer, Andreas; Plutzar, Christoph; Remesch, Alexander

2016-04-01

Land-use and climate change are important, pervasive drivers of global environmental change and pose major threats to global biodiversity. Research to date has mostly focused either on land-use change or on climate change, but rarely on the interactions between both drivers, even though it is expected that systemic feedbacks between changes in climate and land use will have important effects on biodiversity. In particular, climate change will not only alter the pool of plant and animal species capable of thriving in a specific area, it will also force land owners to reconsider their land use decisions. Such changes in land-use practices may have major additional effects on local and regional species composition and abundance. In LUBIO, we will explore the anticipated systemic feedbacks between (1) climate change, (2) land owner's decisions on land use, (3) land-use change, and (4) changes in biodiversity patterns during the coming decades in a regional context which integrates a broad range of land use practices and intensity gradients. To achieve this goal, an integrated socioecological model will be designed and implemented, consisting of three principal components: (1) an agent based model (ABM) that simulates decisions of important actors, (2) a spatially explicit GIS model that translates these decisions into changes in land cover and land use patterns, and (3) a species distribution model (SDM) that calculates changes in biodiversity patterns following from both changes in climate and the land use decisions as simulated in the ABM. Upon integration of these three components, the coupled socioecological model will be used to generate scenarios of future land-use decisions of landowners under climate change and, eventually, the combined effects of climate and land use changes on biodiversity. Model development of the ABM will be supported by a participatory process intended to collect regional and expert knowledge through a series of expert interviews, a series of transdisciplinary participatory modelling workshops, and a questionnaire-based survey targeted at regional farmers. Beside the integrated socioecological model a catalogue of recommended actions will be developed in order to distribute the insights of the research to the most relevant regional stakeholder groups.

Flood Risk and Global Change: Future Prospects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Serra-Llobet, A.

2014-12-01

Global flood risk is increasing in response to population growth in flood-prone areas, human encroachment into natural flood paths (exacerbating flooding in areas formerly out of harm's way), and climate change (which alters variables driving floods). How will societies respond to and manage flood risk in coming decades? Analysis of flood policy evolution in the EU and US demonstrates that changes occurred in steps, in direct response to disasters. After the flood produced by the collapse of Tous Dam in 1982, Spain initiated a systematic assessment of areas of greatest flood risk and civil protection response. The devastating floods on the Elbe and elsewhere in central Europe in 2002 motivated adoption of the EU Floods Directive (2007), which requires member states to develop systematic flood risk maps (now due) and flood risk management plans (due in 2015). The flooding of New Orleans by Hurricane Katrina in 2005 resulted in a nationwide levee-safety assessment and improvements in communicating risk, but overall less fundamental change in US flood management than manifest in the EU since 2007. In the developing world, large (and increasing) concentrations of populations in low-lying floodplains, deltas, and coasts are increasingly vulnerable, and governments mostly ill-equipped to implement fundamental changes in land use to prevent future increases in exposure, nor to develop responses to the current threats. Even in the developed world, there is surprisingly little research on how well residents of flood-prone lands understand their true risk, especially when they are 'protected' by '100-year' levees. Looking ahead, researchers and decision makers should prioritize improvements in flood risk perception, river-basin-scale assessment of flood runoff processes (under current and future climate and land-use conditions) and flood management alternatives, and bridging the disconnect between national and international floodplain management policies and local land-use decisions.

Ecosystem service impacts of future changes in CO2, climate, and land use as simulated by a coupled vegetation/land-use model system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rabin, S. S.; Alexander, P.; Henry, R.; Anthoni, P.; Pugh, T.; Rounsevell, M.; Arneth, A.

2017-12-01

In a future of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations, changing climate, increasing human populations, and changing socioeconomic dynamics, the global agricultural system will need to adapt in order to feed the world. Global modeling can help to explore what these adaptations will look like, and their potential impacts on ecosystem services. To do so, however, the complex interconnections among the atmosphere, terrestrial ecosystems, and society mean that these various parts of the Earth system must be examined as an interconnected whole. With the goal of answering these questions, a model system has been developed that couples a biologically-representative global vegetation model, LPJ-GUESS, with the PLUMv2 land use model. LPJ-GUESS first simulates—at 0.5º resolution across the world—the potential yield of various crops and pasture under a range of management intensities for a time step given its atmospheric CO2 level and climatic forcings. These potential yield simulations are fed into PLUMv2, which uses them in conjunction with endogenous agricultural commodity demand and prices to produce land use and management inputs (fertilizer and irrigation water) at a sub-national level for the next time step. This process is performed through 2100 for a range of future climate and societal scenarios—the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), respectively—providing a thorough exploration of possible trajectories of land use and land cover change. The land use projections produced by PLUMv2 are fed back into LPJ-GUESS to simulate the future impacts of land use change, along with increasing CO2 and climate change, on terrestrial ecosystems. This integrated analysis examines the resulting impacts on regulating and provisioning ecosystem services affecting biophysics (albedo); carbon, nitrogen, and water cycling; and the emission of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs).

Pathway to future sustainable land imaging: the compact hyperspectral prism spectrometer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kampe, Thomas U.; Good, William S.

2017-09-01

NASA's Sustainable Land Imaging (SLI) program, managed through the Earth Science Technology Office, aims to develop technologies that will provide future Landsat-like measurements. SLI aims to develop a new generation of smaller, more capable, less costly payloads that meet or exceed current imaging capabilities. One projects funded by this program is Ball's Compact Hyperspectral Prism Spectrometer (CHPS), a visible-to-shortwave imaging spectrometer that provides legacy Landsat data products as well as hyperspectral coverage suitable for a broad range of land science products. CHPS exhibits extremely low straylight and accommodates full aperture, full optical path calibration needed to ensure the high radiometric accuracy demanded by SLI measurement objectives. Low polarization sensitivity in visible to near-infrared bands facilitates coastal water science as first demonstrated by the exceptional performance of the Operational Land Imager. Our goal is to mature CHPS imaging spectrometer technology for infusion into the SLI program. Our effort builds on technology development initiated by Ball IRAD investment and includes laboratory and airborne demonstration, data distribution to science collaborators, and maturation of technology for spaceborne demonstration. CHPS is a three year program with expected exiting technology readiness of TRL-6. The 2013 NRC report Landsat and Beyond: Sustaining and Enhancing the Nations Land Imaging Program recommended that the nation should "maintain a sustained, space-based, land-imaging program, while ensuring the continuity of 42-years of multispectral information." We are confident that CHPS provides a path to achieve this goal while enabling new science measurements and significantly reducing the cost, size, and volume of the VSWIR instrument.

A review of green- and blue-water resources and their trade-offs for future agricultural production in the Amazon Basin: what could irrigated agriculture mean for Amazonia?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lathuillière, Michael J.; Coe, Michael T.; Johnson, Mark S.

2016-06-01

The Amazon Basin is a region of global importance for the carbon and hydrological cycles, a biodiversity hotspot, and a potential centre for future economic development. The region is also a major source of water vapour recycled into continental precipitation through evapotranspiration processes. This review applies an ecohydrological approach to Amazonia's water cycle by looking at contributions of water resources in the context of future agricultural production. At present, agriculture in the region is primarily rain-fed and relies almost exclusively on green-water resources (soil moisture regenerated by precipitation). Future agricultural development, however, will likely follow pathways that include irrigation from blue-water sources (surface water and groundwater) as insurance from variability in precipitation. In this review, we first provide an updated summary of the green-blue ecohydrological framework before describing past trends in Amazonia's water resources within the context of land use and land cover change. We then describe green- and blue-water trade-offs in light of future agricultural production and potential irrigation to assess costs and benefits to terrestrial ecosystems, particularly land and biodiversity protection, and regional precipitation recycling. Management of green water is needed, particularly at the agricultural frontier located in the headwaters of major tributaries to the Amazon River, and home to key downstream blue-water users and ecosystem services, including domestic and industrial users, as well as aquatic ecosystems.

Outlook for outdoor recreation in the northern United States. A technical document supporting the Northern Forest Futures Project with projections through 2060

Treesearch

J.M. Bowker; Ashley E. Askew

2013-01-01

We develop projections of participation and use for 17 nature-based outdoor recreation activities through 2060 for the Northern United States. Similar to the 2010 Resources Planning Act (RPA) assessment, this report develops recreation projections under futures wherein population growth, socioeconomic conditions, land use changes, and climate are allowed to change over...

United states national land cover data base development? 1992-2001 and beyond

USGS Publications Warehouse

Yang, L.

2008-01-01

An accurate, up-to-date and spatially-explicate national land cover database is required for monitoring the status and trends of the nation's terrestrial ecosystem, and for managing and conserving land resources at the national scale. With all the challenges and resources required to develop such a database, an innovative and scientifically sound planning must be in place and a partnership be formed among users from government agencies, research institutes and private sectors. In this paper, we summarize major scientific and technical issues regarding the development of the NLCD 1992 and 2001. Experiences and lessons learned from the project are documented with regard to project design, technical approaches, accuracy assessment strategy, and projecti imiplementation.Future improvements in developing next generation NLCD beyond 2001 are suggested, including: 1) enhanced satellite data preprocessing in correction of atmospheric and adjacency effect and the topographic normalization; 2) improved classification accuracy through comprehensive and consistent training data and new algorithm development; 3) multi-resolution and multi-temporal database targeting major land cover changes and land cover database updates; 4) enriched database contents by including additional biophysical parameters and/or more detailed land cover classes through synergizing multi-sensor, multi-temporal, and multi-spectral satellite data and ancillary data, and 5) transform the NLCD project into a national land cover monitoring program. ?? 2008 IEEE.

San Pedro River Basin Data Browser Report

EPA Science Inventory

Acquisition of primary spatial data and database development are initial features of any type of landscape assessment project. They provide contemporary land cover and the ancillary datasets necessary to establish reference condition and develop alternative future scenarios that ...

Selecting reasonable future land use scenarios

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Allred, W.E.; Smith, R.W.

1995-12-31

This paper examines a process to help select the most reasonable future land use scenarios for hazardous waste and/or low-level radioactive waste disposal sites. The process involves evaluating future land use scenarios by applying selected criteria currently used by commercial mortgage companies to determine the feasibility of obtaining a loan for purchasing such land. The basis for the process is that only land use activities for which a loan can be obtained will be considered. To examine the process, a low-level radioactive waste site, the Radioactive Waste Management Complex at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, is used as an example.more » The authors suggest that the process is a very precise, comprehensive, and systematic (common sense) approach for determining reasonable future use of land. Implementing such a process will help enhance the planning, decisionmaking, safe management, and cleanup of present and future disposal facilities.« less

The dynamic and indirect spatial effects of neighborhood conditions on land value, spatial panel dynamic econometrics model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fitriani, Rahma; Sumarminingsih, Eni; Astutik, Suci

2017-05-01

Land value is the product of past decision of its use leading to its value, as well as the value of the surrounded land. It is also affected by the local characteristic and the spillover development demand of the previous time period. The effect of each factor on land value will have dynamic and spatial virtues. Thus, a spatial panel dynamic model is used to estimate the particular effects. The model will be useful for predicting the future land value or the effect of implemented policy on land value. The objective of this paper is to derive the dynamic and indirect spatial marginal effects of the land characteristic and the spillover development demand on land value. Each effect is the partial derivative of the expected land value based on the spatial dynamic model with respect to each variable, by considering different time period and different location. The results indicate that the instant change of local or neighborhood characteristics on land value affect the local and the immediate neighborhood land value. However, the longer the change take place, the effect will spread further, not only on the immediate neighborhood.

The Evaluation of Land Use Status in Mountainous Counties of Southwest China Based on Comprehensive Evaluation Models: A Case Study of Baoxing County, Sichuan Province

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cao, Mengtian; Shen, Jundi; Chen, Zhehua

2018-06-01

In mountainous areas of Southwest China, the land resources are scarce, and the ecological environment is fragile, so it is particularly important to carry out the evaluation of land use status for the sustainability of land development. Taking Baoxing County in Sichuan Province, the typical mountainous county in Southwest China, as an instance, this study refers to the existing research frameworks to establish the evaluation system of land use status. Meanwhile, the comprehensive evaluation models are used to evaluate land use status. As indicated from the results, in Baoxing County, the comprehensive evaluation score of the overall status of land use, the evaluation score of the development degree of land, the evaluation score of the intensive management degree of land and the evaluation score of the comprehensive benefits of land were 83.5, 108.24, 72.25 and 80.77, respectively. Land use status is generally at the relatively rational use stage, and the main problems are the lack of land investment and the low mechanization level of agricultural production. It is suggested to increase the financial investment in land and enhance the intensive degree and comprehensive benefits of land in the future.

43 CFR 3509.10 - What are future interest leases?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... Section 3509.10 Public Lands: Interior Regulations Relating to Public Lands (Continued) BUREAU OF LAND MANAGEMENT, DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR MINERALS MANAGEMENT (3000) LEASING OF SOLID MINERALS OTHER THAN COAL... that will revert to the Federal Government at some future date. Future interest leases allow the...

43 CFR 3509.10 - What are future interest leases?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... Section 3509.10 Public Lands: Interior Regulations Relating to Public Lands (Continued) BUREAU OF LAND MANAGEMENT, DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR MINERALS MANAGEMENT (3000) LEASING OF SOLID MINERALS OTHER THAN COAL... that will revert to the Federal Government at some future date. Future interest leases allow the...

Integration of Multiple Data Sources to Simulate the Dynamics of Land Systems

PubMed Central

Deng, Xiangzheng; Su, Hongbo; Zhan, Jinyan

2008-01-01

In this paper we present and develop a new model, which we have called Dynamics of Land Systems (DLS). The DLS model is capable of integrating multiple data sources to simulate the dynamics of a land system. Three main modules are incorporated in DLS: a spatial regression module, to explore the relationship between land uses and influencing factors, a scenario analysis module of the land uses of a region during the simulation period and a spatial disaggregation module, to allocate land use changes from a regional level to disaggregated grid cells. A case study on Taips County in North China is incorporated in this paper to test the functionality of DLS. The simulation results under the baseline, economic priority and environmental scenarios help to understand the land system dynamics and project near future land-use trajectories of a region, in order to focus management decisions on land uses and land use planning. PMID:27879726

Monitoring the expansion of built-up areas in Seberang Perai region, Penang State, Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samat, N.

2014-02-01

Rapid urbanization has caused land use transformation and encroachment of built environment into arable agriculture land. Uncontrolled expansion could bring negative impacts to society, space and the environment. Therefore, information on expansion and future spatial pattern of built-up areas would be useful for planners and decision makers in formulating policies towards managing and planning for sustainable urban development. This study demonstrates the usage of Geographic Information System in monitoring the expansion of built-up area in Seberang Perai region, Penang State, Malaysia. Built-up area has increased by approximately 20% between 1990 and 2001 and further increased by 12% between 2001 and 2007. New development is expected to continue encroach into existing open space and agriculture area since those are the only available land in this study area. The information on statistics of the expansion of built-up area and future spatial pattern of urban expansion were useful in planning and managing urban spatial growth.

Risk management for optimal land use planning integrating ecosystem services values: A case study in Changsha, Middle China.

PubMed

Liang, Jie; Zhong, Minzhou; Zeng, Guangming; Chen, Gaojie; Hua, Shanshan; Li, Xiaodong; Yuan, Yujie; Wu, Haipeng; Gao, Xiang

2017-02-01

Land-use change has direct impact on ecosystem services and alters ecosystem services values (ESVs). Ecosystem services analysis is beneficial for land management and decisions. However, the application of ESVs for decision-making in land use decisions is scarce. In this paper, a method, integrating ESVs to balance future ecosystem-service benefit and risk, is developed to optimize investment in land for ecological conservation in land use planning. Using ecological conservation in land use planning in Changsha as an example, ESVs is regarded as the expected ecosystem-service benefit. And uncertainty of land use change is regarded as risk. This method can optimize allocation of investment in land to improve ecological benefit. The result shows that investment should be partial to Liuyang City to get higher benefit. The investment should also be shifted from Liuyang City to other regions to reduce risk. In practice, lower limit and upper limit for weight distribution, which affects optimal outcome and selection of investment allocation, should be set in investment. This method can reveal the optimal spatial allocation of investment to maximize the expected ecosystem-service benefit at a given level of risk or minimize risk at a given level of expected ecosystem-service benefit. Our results of optimal analyses highlight tradeoffs between future ecosystem-service benefit and uncertainty of land use change in land use decisions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Evaluating hydrological response to forecasted land-use change—scenario testing with the automated geospatial watershed assessment (AGWA) tool

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kepner, William G.; Semmens, Darius J.; Hernandez, Mariano; Goodrich, David C.

2009-01-01

Envisioning and evaluating future scenarios has emerged as a critical component of both science and social decision-making. The ability to assess, report, map, and forecast the life support functions of ecosystems is absolutely critical to our capacity to make informed decisions to maintain the sustainable nature of our ecosystem services now and into the future. During the past two decades, important advances in the integration of remote imagery, computer processing, and spatial-analysis technologies have been used to develop landscape information that can be integrated with hydrologic models to determine long-term change and make predictive inferences about the future. Two diverse case studies in northwest Oregon (Willamette River basin) and southeastern Arizona (San Pedro River) were examined in regard to future land use scenarios relative to their impact on surface water conditions (e.g., sediment yield and surface runoff) using hydrologic models associated with the Automated Geospatial Watershed Assessment (AGWA) tool. The base reference grid for land cover was modified in both study locations to reflect stakeholder preferences 20 to 60 yrs into the future, and the consequences of landscape change were evaluated relative to the selected future scenarios. The two studies provide examples of integrating hydrologic modeling with a scenario analysis framework to evaluate plausible future forecasts and to understand the potential impact of landscape change on ecosystem services.

Mars Atmospheric Characterization Using Advanced 2-Micron Orbiting Lidar

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Singh, U.; Engelund, W.; Refaat, T.; Kavaya, M.; Yu, J.; Petros, M.

2015-01-01

Mars atmospheric characterization is critical for exploring the planet. Future Mars missions require landing massive payloads to the surface with high accuracy. The accuracy of entry, descent and landing (EDL) of a payload is a major technical challenge for future Mars missions. Mars EDL depends on atmospheric conditions such as density, wind and dust as well as surface topography. A Mars orbiting 2-micron lidar system is presented in this paper. This advanced lidar is capable of measuring atmospheric pressure and temperature profiles using the most abundant atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) on Mars. In addition Martian winds and surface altimetry can be mapped, independent of background radiation or geographical location. This orbiting lidar is a valuable tool for developing EDL models for future Mars missions.

Evaluating Global Land-use Change Scenario: Carbon Emission in RCP Scenarios and its Effects on Climate Response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kato, E.; Kawamiya, M.

2011-12-01

In CMIP5 experiments, new emissions scenarios for GCMs and Earth System Models (ESMs) have been constructed as Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) by a community effort of Integrated Assessment Modeling (IAM) groups. In RCP scenarios, regional land-use scenarios have been depicted based on the socio-economic assumption of IAMs, and also downscaled spatially explicit land-use maps from the regional scenarios are prepared. In the land-use harmonization project, integrated gridded land-use transition data for the past and future time period has been developed from the reconstruction based on HYDE 3 agricultural data and FAO wood harvest data, and the future land-use scenarios from IAMs. These gridded land-use dataset are used as a forcing of some ESMs participating to the CMIP5 experiments, to assess the biogeochemical and biogeophysical effects of land-use and land cover change in the climate change simulation. In this study, global net CO2 emissions from land-use change for RCP scenarios are evaluated with an offline terrestrial biogeochemical model, VISIT (Vegetation Integrative SImulation Tool). Also the emissions are evaluated with coupled ESM, MIROC-ESM following the LUCID-CMIP5 protocol to see the effect of land-use and land cover change on climate response. Using the model output, consistency of the land-use change CO2 emission scenarios provided by RCPs are evaluated in terms of effect of CO2 fertilization, climate change, and land-use transition itself including the effect of biomass crops production with CCS. We find that a land-use scenario with decreased agricultural land-use intensity such as RCP 6.0 shows possibility of further absorption of CO2 through the climate-carbon feedback, and cooling effect through both biogeochemical and biogeophysical effects.

Alternative futures for Borneo show the value of integrating economic and conservation targets across borders

PubMed Central

Runting, Rebecca K.; Meijaard, Erik; Abram, Nicola K.; Wells, Jessie A.; Gaveau, David L.A.; Ancrenaz, Marc; Posssingham, Hugh P.; Wich, Serge A.; Ardiansyah, Fitrian; Gumal, Melvin T.; Ambu, Laurentius N.; Wilson, Kerrie A.

2015-01-01

Balancing economic development with international commitments to protect biodiversity is a global challenge. Achieving this balance requires an understanding of the possible consequences of alternative future scenarios for a range of stakeholders. We employ an integrated economic and environmental planning approach to evaluate four alternative futures for the mega-diverse island of Borneo. We show what could be achieved if the three national jurisdictions of Borneo coordinate efforts to achieve their public policy targets and allow a partial reallocation of planned land uses. We reveal the potential for Borneo to simultaneously retain ∼50% of its land as forests, protect adequate habitat for the Bornean orangutan (Pongo pygmaeus) and Bornean elephant (Elephas maximus borneensis), and achieve an opportunity cost saving of over US$43 billion. Such coordination would depend on enhanced information sharing and reforms to land-use planning, which could be supported by the increasingly international nature of economies and conservation efforts. PMID:25871635

Evaluation of Dynamic Coastal Response to Sea-level Rise Modifies Inundation Likelihood

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lentz, Erika E.; Thieler, E. Robert; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Stippa, Sawyer R.; Horton, Radley M.; Gesch, Dean B.

2016-01-01

Sea-level rise (SLR) poses a range of threats to natural and built environments, making assessments of SLR-induced hazards essential for informed decision making. We develop a probabilistic model that evaluates the likelihood that an area will inundate (flood) or dynamically respond (adapt) to SLR. The broad-area applicability of the approach is demonstrated by producing 30x30m resolution predictions for more than 38,000 sq km of diverse coastal landscape in the northeastern United States. Probabilistic SLR projections, coastal elevation and vertical land movement are used to estimate likely future inundation levels. Then, conditioned on future inundation levels and the current land-cover type, we evaluate the likelihood of dynamic response versus inundation. We find that nearly 70% of this coastal landscape has some capacity to respond dynamically to SLR, and we show that inundation models over-predict land likely to submerge. This approach is well suited to guiding coastal resource management decisions that weigh future SLR impacts and uncertainty against ecological targets and economic constraints.

Integrated assessment of future land use in Brazil under increasing demand for bioenergy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verstegen, Judith; van der Hilst, Floor; Karssenberg, Derek; Faaij, André

2014-05-01

Environmental impacts of a future increase in demand for bioenergy depend on the magnitude, location and pattern of the direct and indirect land use change of energy cropland expansion. Here we aim at 1) projecting the spatiotemporal pattern of sugar cane expansion and the effect on other land uses in Brazil towards 2030, and 2) assessing the uncertainty herein. For the spatio-temporal projection, four model components are used: 1) an initial land use map that shows the initial amount and location of sugar cane and all other relevant land use classes in the system, 2) an economic model to project the quantity of change of all land uses, 3) a spatially explicit land use model that determines the location of change of all land uses, and 4) various analysis to determine the impacts of these changes on water, socio-economics, and biodiversity. All four model components are sources of uncertainty, which is quantified by defining error models for all components and their inputs and propagating these errors through the chain of components. No recent accurate land use map is available for Brazil, so municipal census data and the global land cover map GlobCover are combined to create the initial land use map. The census data are disaggregated stochastically using GlobCover as a probability surface, to obtain a stochastic land use raster map for 2006. Since bioenergy is a global market, the quantity of change in sugar cane in Brazil depends on dynamics in both Brazil itself and other parts of the world. Therefore, a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, MAGNET, is run to produce a time series of the relative change of all land uses given an increased future demand for bioenergy. A sensitivity analysis finds the upper and lower boundaries hereof, to define this component's error model. An initial selection of drivers of location for each land use class is extracted from literature. Using a Bayesian data assimilation technique and census data from 2007 to 2012 as observational data, the model is identified, meaning that the final selection and optimal relative importance of the drivers of location are determined. The data assimilation technique takes into account uncertainty in the observational data and yields a stochastic representation of the identified model. Using all stochastic inputs, this land use change model is run to find at which locations the future land use changes occur and to quantify the associated uncertainty. The results indicate that in the initial land use map especially the shape of sugar cane and other land use patches are uncertain, not so much the location. From the economic model we can derive that dynamics in the livestock sector play a major role in the land use development of Brazil, the effect of this uncertainty on the model output is large. If the intensity of the livestock sector is not increased future projections show a large loss of natural vegetation. Impacts on water are not that large, except when irrigation is applied on the expanded cropland.

Does Land Degradation Increase Poverty in Developing Countries?

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Land degradation is a global problem that particularly impacts the poor rural inhabitants of low and middle-income countries. We improve upon existing literature by estimating the extent of rural populations in 2000 and 2010 globally on degrading and improving agricultural land, taking into account the role of market access, and analyzing the resulting impacts on poverty. Using a variety of spatially referenced datasets, we estimate that 1.33 billion people worldwide in 2000 were located on degrading agricultural land (DAL), of which 1.26 billion were in developing countries. Almost all the world’s 200 million people on remote DAL were in developing countries, which is about 6% of their rural population. There were also 1.54 billion rural people on improving agricultural land (IAL), with 1.34 billion in developing countries. We find that a lower share of people in 2000 on DAL, or a higher share on IAL, lowers significantly how much overall economic growth reduces poverty from 2000 to 2012 across 83 developing countries. As the population on DAL and IAL in developing countries grew by 13% and 15% respectively from 2000 to 2010, these changing spatial distributions of rural populations could impact significantly future poverty in developing countries. PMID:27167738

Automated feature extraction and classification from image sources

USGS Publications Warehouse

,

1995-01-01

The U.S. Department of the Interior, U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), and Unisys Corporation have completed a cooperative research and development agreement (CRADA) to explore automated feature extraction and classification from image sources. The CRADA helped the USGS define the spectral and spatial resolution characteristics of airborne and satellite imaging sensors necessary to meet base cartographic and land use and land cover feature classification requirements and help develop future automated geographic and cartographic data production capabilities. The USGS is seeking a new commercial partner to continue automated feature extraction and classification research and development.

Changes in land-uses and ecosystem services under multi-scenarios simulation.

PubMed

Liu, Jingya; Li, Jing; Qin, Keyu; Zhou, Zixiang; Yang, Xiaonan; Li, Ting

2017-05-15

Social economy of China has been rapidly developing for more than 30years with efficient reforms and policies being issued. Societal developments have resulted in a greater use of many natural resources to the extent that the ecosystem can no longer self-regulate, thus severely damaging the balance of the ecosystem itself. This in turn has led to a deterioration in people's living environments. Our research is based on a combination of climate scenarios presented in the fifth report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and policy scenarios, including the one-child policy and carbon tax policy. We adopted Land Change Modeler of IDRISI software to simulate and analyze land-use change under 16 future scenarios in 2050. Carbon sequestration, soil conservation and water yields were quantified, based on those land-use maps and different ecosystem models. We also analyzed trade-offs and synergy among each ecosystem service and discussed why those interactions happened. The results show that: (1) Global climate change has a strong influence on future changes in land-use. (2) Carbon sequestration, water yield and soil conservation have a mutual relationship in the Guanzhong-Tianshui economic region. (3) Climate change and implementation of policy have a conspicuous impact on the changes in ecosystem services in the Guanzhong-Tianshui economic region. This paper can be used as a reference for further related research, and provide a reliable basis for achieving the sustainable development of the ecosystem. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Future Diet Scenarios and Their Effect on Regional and Global Biofuel Potential

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gregg, J.; hvid, A.

2012-04-01

Food production has been one of the most significant ways in which humans have changed the surface of the Earth. It is projected that further intensification of agriculture will be necessary to meet a growing population and the increased demand for calories from animal products. This would require substantially more land and resources devoted to animal production. However, globally, the proportion of per capita caloric intake from animal to total caloric intake has remained relatively constant for the last 50 years at slightly above 15%. Nevertheless, there are large discrepancies across regions and through time. For example, northern European countries derive over 30% of calories from animal products, while India is under 10%; between 1961 and 2007, China's per capita consumption of animal calories has increased by over a factor of ten, while in the US, animal calorie consumption has remained constant. In general, per capita consumption of animal products is lower in developing countries than in developed countries, and it is commonly assumed that future animal product consumption will increase as developing countries become wealthier. On the other hand, wealthier countries are remaining constant or even decreasing their proportional consumption of animal calories, and this could be a different way that future diets may evolve. We create different future scenarios for calorie demand from vegetal products, beef, sheep and goat, pork, poultry, and dairy based on historical national trends and estimated income elasticities for these various food products. The extreme scenarios are one in which the world evolves to a highly vegetal calorie diet and, on the other extreme, one in which the world evolves to diets with high meat consumption. Intermediate scenarios include projections of current trends and one in which the world moves to a healthy balanced diet given current recommendations. Using DTU-GCAM, and global integrated assessment model with an included land use module, we explore the effect of these different global and regional diet scenarios on land use and biofuel potential up to the year 2095. The model economically optimizes food production for 14 different regions of the world based on their current and historical land use and land cover, using free market and free trade assumptions.

Developing desired future conditions with the landscape management system: A case study of the Gotchen Late Successional Reserve

Treesearch

R. Mendez-Treneman; S. Hummel; G. Porterie; C. D. Oliver

2001-01-01

Changing public values have led to federal land management direction like the Northwest Forest Plan with major land allocations for late successional forest habitat. Restoration silviculture is a tool for maintaining optimum habitat despite risk of catastrophic disturbance due to the combined impact of fire, insects and disease. The Gotchen Late Successional Reserve (...

The use of historical range and variability (HRV) in landscape management

Treesearch

Robert E. Keane; Paul F. Hessburg; Peter B. Landres; Fred J. Swanson

2009-01-01

This paper examines the past, present, and future use of the concept of historical range and variability (HRV) in land management. The history, central concepts, benefits, and limitations of HRV are presented along with a discussion on the value of HRV in a changing world with rapid climate warming, exotic species invasions, and increased land development. This paper...

Map showing the potential for mineral deposits associated with Precambrian mafic and ultramafic rocks in the Blacktail and Henrys Lake mountains and the Greenhorn and Ruby ranges of southwestern Montana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hammarstrom, Jane M.; Van Gosen, Bradley S.; Carlson, Robert R.; Kulik, Dolores M.

1998-01-01

In response to requests from the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) and the U.S. Forest Service (USFS), the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) conducted a mineral resource assessment in the Dillon BLM Resource Area in Beaverhead and Madison Counties, southwestern Montana. These agencies use mineral resource data in creating and updating land-use management plans for federal lands for the reasonably foreseeable future. Mineral resources that have not been developed in the past may be developed in the future, based on changing commodity demands and market conditions. Therefore, federal land managers need geologic information on known mineral occurrences as well as on areas that are permissive for the occurrence of undiscovered mineral resources. This map was prepared to provide this type of geologic information for mineral deposits that can be associated with ultramafic rocks. Areas of exposed Precambrian ultramafic rocks are labeled with uppercase letters (A-F). Sources of geologic maps used to compile this map are shown on the smaller index map ("Index to Geologic Mapping"); lowercase letters (a-m) on the index map are keyed to the reference list.

Comparative Synthesis of Current and Future Urban Stormwater Runoff Scenarios in Tampa Bay Basin under a Changing Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khan, M.; Abdul-Aziz, O. I.

2016-12-01

Changes in climatic regimes and basin characteristics such as imperviousness, roughness and land use types would lead to potential changes in stormwater budget. In this study we quantified reference sensitivities of stormwater runoff to the potential climatic and land use/cover changes by developing a large-scale, mechanistic rainfall-runoff model for the Tampa Bay Basin of Florida using the US EPA Storm Water Management Model (SWMM 5.1). Key processes of urban hydrology, its dynamic interactions with groundwater and sea level, hydro-climatic variables and land use/cover characteristics were incorporated within the model. The model was calibrated and validated with historical streamflow data. We then computed the historical (1970-2000) and potential 2050s stormwater budgets for the Tampa Bay Basin. Climatic scenario projected by the global climate models (GCMs) and the regional climate models (RCMs), along with sea level and land use/cover projections, were utilized to anticipate the future stormwater budget. The comparative assessment of current and future stormwater scenario will aid a proactive management of stormwater runoff under a changing climate in the Tampa Bay Basin and similar urban basins around the world.

Local modelling of land consumption in Germany with RegioClust

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hagenauer, Julian; Helbich, Marco

2018-03-01

Germany is experiencing extensive land consumption. This necessitates local models to understand actual and future land consumption patterns. This research examined land consumption rates on a municipality level in Germany for the period 2000-10 and predicted rates for 2010-20. For this purpose, RegioClust, an algorithm that combines hierarchical clustering and regression analysis to identify regions with similar relationships between land consumption and its drivers, was developed. The performance of RegioClust was compared against geographically weighted regression (GWR). Distinct spatially varying relationships across regions emerged, whereas population density is suggested as the central driver. Although both RegioClust and GWR predicted an increase in land consumption rates for east Germany for 2010-20, only RegioClust forecasts a decline for west Germany. In conclusion, both models predict for 2010-20 a rate of land consumption that suggests that the policy objective of reducing land consumption to 30 ha per day in 2020 will not be achieved. Policymakers are advised to take action and revise existing planning strategies to counteract this development.

Spatiotemporal dynamics of LUCC from 2001 to 2010 in Yunnan Province, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Z. J.; Yu, J. S.; Yao, X. L.; Chen, X.; Li, Z. L.

2016-08-01

LUCC (Land use and land cover change) is increasingly regarded as an important component of global environmental change and sustainable development. In this study, regional land cover type maps were drawn using the MODIS products from 2001 and 2010 based on the modified classification scheme embodied by the characteristics of land cover in Yunnan. Dynamic change in each type of land cover was investigated by classification statistics, dynamic transfer matrices, and landscape pattern metrics. In addition, the driving factors of LUCC were discussed. The results showed that the land cover types of the Yunnan province, especially woodland (WL), cropland (CL) and grassland (GL), had experienced noticeable changes with an area of about 30% of land during the study period. And there was an obvious vertical distribution pattern for land cover types. The average altitude of different land cover types from the highest to the lowest were unused land (UUT), WL, GL, water (WT), urban and built-up areas (UB) and CL. The average slope for most of the land-cover types did not vary over the past 10 years. Stabilization and homogenization will be the direction of land cover in the future according to landscape metrics analysis. The regional differences of land use structure in the area are strongly influenced by such factors as the geographical position, level of economic development and land use policy. The new policy of land use, Construction of Mountainous Town, would be provided to achieve the economical and intensive utilization of land resources during the rapid development of urbanization and industrialization in Yunnan.

Summary of the land-use inventory for the nonpoint-source evaluation monitoring watersheds in Wisconsin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wierl, J.A.; Rappold, K.F.; Amerson, F.U.

1996-01-01

In 1992, the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources (WDNR) in cooperation with the U.S. Geological Survey initiated a land-use inventory to identify sources of pollutants and track the land-management changes for eight evaluation monitoring watersheds established as part of the WDNR's Nonpoint Source Program. Each evaluation monitoring watershed is within a WDNR priority watershed. The U.S. Geological Survey is responsible for collection of water-quality data in the evaluation monitoring watersheds. An initial inventory was completed for each of the WDNR priority watersheds before nonpoint-source plans were developed for the control of nonpoint pollution. The land-use inventory described in this report expands upon the initial inventory by including nonpoint pollution sources that were not identified and also by updating changes in landuse and land-management practices. New sources of nonpoint pollution, not identified in the initial inventory, could prove to be important when monitored and modeled data are analyzed. This effort to inventory the evaluation monitoring watersheds will help with the interpretation of future land-use and water-quality data. This report describes landuse inventory methods, presents results of the inventory, and lists proposed future activities.

Spatial patterns of agricultural expansion determine impacts on biodiversity and carbon storage.

PubMed

Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca; Sharp, Richard P; Mandle, Lisa; Sim, Sarah; Johnson, Justin; Butnar, Isabela; Milà I Canals, Llorenç; Eichelberger, Bradley A; Ramler, Ivan; Mueller, Carina; McLachlan, Nikolaus; Yousefi, Anahita; King, Henry; Kareiva, Peter M

2015-06-16

The agricultural expansion and intensification required to meet growing food and agri-based product demand present important challenges to future levels and management of biodiversity and ecosystem services. Influential actors such as corporations, governments, and multilateral organizations have made commitments to meeting future agricultural demand sustainably and preserving critical ecosystems. Current approaches to predicting the impacts of agricultural expansion involve calculation of total land conversion and assessment of the impacts on biodiversity or ecosystem services on a per-area basis, generally assuming a linear relationship between impact and land area. However, the impacts of continuing land development are often not linear and can vary considerably with spatial configuration. We demonstrate what could be gained by spatially explicit analysis of agricultural expansion at a large scale compared with the simple measure of total area converted, with a focus on the impacts on biodiversity and carbon storage. Using simple modeling approaches for two regions of Brazil, we find that for the same amount of land conversion, the declines in biodiversity and carbon storage can vary two- to fourfold depending on the spatial pattern of conversion. Impacts increase most rapidly in the earliest stages of agricultural expansion and are more pronounced in scenarios where conversion occurs in forest interiors compared with expansion into forests from their edges. This study reveals the importance of spatially explicit information in the assessment of land-use change impacts and for future land management and conservation.

Spatial patterns of agricultural expansion determine impacts on biodiversity and carbon storage

PubMed Central

Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca; Sharp, Richard P.; Mandle, Lisa; Sim, Sarah; Johnson, Justin; Butnar, Isabela; Milà i Canals, Llorenç; Eichelberger, Bradley A.; Ramler, Ivan; Mueller, Carina; McLachlan, Nikolaus; Yousefi, Anahita; King, Henry; Kareiva, Peter M.

2015-01-01

The agricultural expansion and intensification required to meet growing food and agri-based product demand present important challenges to future levels and management of biodiversity and ecosystem services. Influential actors such as corporations, governments, and multilateral organizations have made commitments to meeting future agricultural demand sustainably and preserving critical ecosystems. Current approaches to predicting the impacts of agricultural expansion involve calculation of total land conversion and assessment of the impacts on biodiversity or ecosystem services on a per-area basis, generally assuming a linear relationship between impact and land area. However, the impacts of continuing land development are often not linear and can vary considerably with spatial configuration. We demonstrate what could be gained by spatially explicit analysis of agricultural expansion at a large scale compared with the simple measure of total area converted, with a focus on the impacts on biodiversity and carbon storage. Using simple modeling approaches for two regions of Brazil, we find that for the same amount of land conversion, the declines in biodiversity and carbon storage can vary two- to fourfold depending on the spatial pattern of conversion. Impacts increase most rapidly in the earliest stages of agricultural expansion and are more pronounced in scenarios where conversion occurs in forest interiors compared with expansion into forests from their edges. This study reveals the importance of spatially explicit information in the assessment of land-use change impacts and for future land management and conservation. PMID:26082547

Large-scale impact of climate change vs. land-use change on future biome shifts in Latin America.

PubMed

Boit, Alice; Sakschewski, Boris; Boysen, Lena; Cano-Crespo, Ana; Clement, Jan; Garcia-Alaniz, Nashieli; Kok, Kasper; Kolb, Melanie; Langerwisch, Fanny; Rammig, Anja; Sachse, René; van Eupen, Michiel; von Bloh, Werner; Clara Zemp, Delphine; Thonicke, Kirsten

2016-11-01

Climate change and land-use change are two major drivers of biome shifts causing habitat and biodiversity loss. What is missing is a continental-scale future projection of the estimated relative impacts of both drivers on biome shifts over the course of this century. Here, we provide such a projection for the biodiverse region of Latin America under four socio-economic development scenarios. We find that across all scenarios 5-6% of the total area will undergo biome shifts that can be attributed to climate change until 2099. The relative impact of climate change on biome shifts may overtake land-use change even under an optimistic climate scenario, if land-use expansion is halted by the mid-century. We suggest that constraining land-use change and preserving the remaining natural vegetation early during this century creates opportunities to mitigate climate-change impacts during the second half of this century. Our results may guide the evaluation of socio-economic scenarios in terms of their potential for biome conservation under global change. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The impact of biotechnological advances on the future of US bioenergy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Davison, Brian H.; Brandt, Craig C.; Guss, Adam M.

Modern biotechnology has the potential to substantially advance the feasibility, structure, and efficiency of future biofuel supply chains. Advances might be direct or indirect. A direct advance would be improving the efficiency of biochemical conversion processes and feedstock production. Direct advances in processing may involve developing improved enzymes and bacteria to convert lignocellulosic feedstocks to ethanol. Progress in feedstock production could include enhancing crop yields via genetic modification or the selection of specific natural variants and breeds. Other direct results of biotechnology might increase the production of fungible biofuels and bioproducts, which would impact the supply chain. Indirect advances mightmore » include modifications to dedicated bioenergy crops that enable them to grow on marginal lands rather than land needed for food production. This study assesses the feasibility and advantages of near-future (10-year) biotechnological developments for a US biomass-based supply chain for bioenergy production. We assume a simplified supply chain of feedstock, logistics and land use, conversion, and products and utilization. The primary focus is how likely developments in feedstock production and conversion technologies will impact bioenergy and biofuels in the USA; a secondary focus is other innovative uses of biotechnologies in the energy arenas. The assessment addresses near-term biofuels based on starch, sugar, and cellulosic feedstocks and considers some longer-term options, such as oil-crop and algal technologies.« less

The impact of biotechnological advances on the future of US bioenergy

DOE PAGES

Davison, Brian H.; Brandt, Craig C.; Guss, Adam M.; ...

2015-05-14

Modern biotechnology has the potential to substantially advance the feasibility, structure, and efficiency of future biofuel supply chains. Advances might be direct or indirect. A direct advance would be improving the efficiency of biochemical conversion processes and feedstock production. Direct advances in processing may involve developing improved enzymes and bacteria to convert lignocellulosic feedstocks to ethanol. Progress in feedstock production could include enhancing crop yields via genetic modification or the selection of specific natural variants and breeds. Other direct results of biotechnology might increase the production of fungible biofuels and bioproducts, which would impact the supply chain. Indirect advances mightmore » include modifications to dedicated bioenergy crops that enable them to grow on marginal lands rather than land needed for food production. This study assesses the feasibility and advantages of near-future (10-year) biotechnological developments for a US biomass-based supply chain for bioenergy production. We assume a simplified supply chain of feedstock, logistics and land use, conversion, and products and utilization. The primary focus is how likely developments in feedstock production and conversion technologies will impact bioenergy and biofuels in the USA; a secondary focus is other innovative uses of biotechnologies in the energy arenas. The assessment addresses near-term biofuels based on starch, sugar, and cellulosic feedstocks and considers some longer-term options, such as oil-crop and algal technologies.« less

Assessment on the rates and potentials of soil organic carbon sequestration in agricultural lands in Japan using a process-based model and spatially explicit land-use change inventories - Part 2: Future potentials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yagasaki, Y.; Shirato, Y.

2014-08-01

Future potentials of the sequestration of soil organic carbon (SOC) in agricultural lands in Japan were estimated using a simulation system we recently developed to simulate SOC stock change at country-scale under varying land-use change, climate, soil, and agricultural practices, in a spatially explicit manner. Simulation was run from 1970 to 2006 with historical inventories, and subsequently to 2020 with future scenarios of agricultural activity comprised of various agricultural policy targets advocated by the Japanese government. Furthermore, the simulation was run subsequently until 2100 while forcing no temporal changes in land-use and agricultural activity to investigate duration and course of SOC stock change at country scale. A scenario with an increased rate of organic carbon input to agricultural fields by intensified crop rotation in combination with the suppression of conversion of agricultural lands to other land-use types was found to have a greater reduction of CO2 emission by enhanced soil carbon sequestration, but only under a circumstance in which the converted agricultural lands will become settlements that were considered to have a relatively lower rate of organic carbon input. The size of relative reduction of CO2 emission in this scenario was comparable to that in another contrasting scenario (business-as-usual scenario of agricultural activity) in which a relatively lower rate of organic matter input to agricultural fields was assumed in combination with an increased rate of conversion of the agricultural fields to unmanaged grasslands through abandonment. Our simulation experiment clearly demonstrated that net-net-based accounting on SOC stock change, defined as the differences between the emissions and removals during the commitment period and the emissions and removals during a previous period (base year or base period of Kyoto Protocol), can be largely influenced by variations in future climate. Whereas baseline-based accounting, defined as differences between the net emissions in the accounting period and the ex ante estimation of net business-as-usual emissions for the same period, has robustness over variations in future climate and effectiveness to factor out some of the direct human-induced effects such as changing land-use and agricultural activity. Factors affecting uncertainties in the estimation of the country-scale potential of SOC sequestration were discussed, especially those related to estimation of the rate of organic carbon input to soils under different land-use types. Our study suggested that, in order to assist decision making of policy on agriculture, land management, and mitigation of global climate change, it is also important to take account of duration and time course of SOC sequestration, supposition on land-use change pattern in future, as well as feasibility of agricultural policy planning.

Utilizing NASA Earth Observations to Monitor Sinkhole Development and Identify Risk Areas in Dougherty County, Georgia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cahalan, M. D.; Berry, K.; Amin, M.; Xu, W.; Hu, T.; Milewski, A.

2015-12-01

Located in southwest Georgia, Dougherty County has a growing populace in an agricultural region that relies heavily on groundwater resources. Partly due to escalated groundwater extraction, this area has experienced an increase in sinkhole development over the last decade. Sinkholes pose a threat to infrastructure development, groundwater pollution, and land use operations. The NASA DEVELOP Georgia Disasters and Water Resources team partnered with the City of Albany and Dougherty County Planning and Development Services (PDS) and the Southwest Georgia Water Resources Task Force (SGWRTF) to assess past sinkhole development and identify areas susceptible to future sinkhole formation. Sinkhole mapping was completed utilizing a time-series of elevation data (1999 - 2011) from NASA's SRTM and ASTER missions, as well as European Remote-Sensing (ERS-1 and 2) satellite-derived elevation data. The sinkhole inventory maps and spatial statistical techniques (i.e., geographically-weighted regression) were employed to quantify the factors most influential in sinkhole development. With those results, the susceptibility of every area within Dougherty County to future sinkhole formation was identified. The results of this applied science project will enable the PDS and SGWRTF to make informed decisions on current and future land use, safe infrastructure development, and sustainable water resource management.

Increased Fidelity in Prediction Methods For Landing Gear Noise

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lopes, Leonard V.; Brentner, Kenneth S.; Morris, Philip J.; Lockard, David P.

2006-01-01

An aeroacoustic prediction scheme has been developed for landing gear noise. The method is designed to handle the complex landing gear geometry of current and future aircraft. The gear is represented by a collection of subassemblies and simple components that are modeled using acoustic elements. These acoustic elements are generic, but generate noise representative of the physical components on a landing gear. The method sums the noise radiation from each component of the undercarriage in isolation accounting for interference with adjacent components through an estimate of the local upstream and downstream flows and turbulence intensities. The acoustic calculations are made in the code LGMAP, which computes the sound pressure levels at various observer locations. The method can calculate the noise from the undercarriage in isolation or installed on an aircraft for both main and nose landing gear. Comparisons with wind tunnel and flight data are used to initially calibrate the method, then it may be used to predict the noise of any landing gear. In this paper, noise predictions are compared with wind tunnel data for model landing gears of various scales and levels of fidelity, as well as with flight data on fullscale undercarriages. The present agreement between the calculations and measurements suggests the method has promise for future application in the prediction of airframe noise.

Impacts of Changing Climate, Hydrology and Land Use on the Stormwater Runoff of Urbanizing Central Florida

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huq, E.; Abdul-Aziz, O. I.

2017-12-01

We computed the historical and future storm runoff scenarios for the Shingle Creek Basin, including the growing urban centers of central Florida (e.g., City of Orlando). Storm Water Management Model (SWMM 5.1) of US EPA was used to develop a mechanistic hydrologic model for the basin by incorporating components of urban hydrology, hydroclimatological variables, and land use/cover features. The model was calibrated and validated with historical streamflow of 2004-2013 near the outlet of the Shingle Creek. The calibrated model was used to compute the sensitivities of stormwater budget to reference changes in hydroclimatological variables (rainfall and evapotranspiration) and land use/cover features (imperviousness, roughness). Basin stormwater budgets for the historical (2010s = 2004-2013) and future periods (2050s = 2030-2059; 2080s = 2070-2099) were also computed based on downscaled climatic projections of 20 GCMs-RCMs representing the coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP5), and anticipated changes in land use/cover. The sensitivity analyses indicated the dominant drivers of urban runoff in the basin. Comparative assessment of the historical and future stormwater runoff scenarios helped to locate basin areas that would be at a higher risk of future stormwater flooding. Importance of the study lies in providing valuable guidelines for managing stormwater flooding in central Florida and similar growing urban centers around the world.

An overview of oak silviculture in the United States: the past, present, and future

Treesearch

R. Rogers; P.S. Johnson; D.L. Loftis

1993-01-01

Oaks (Quercus) are important components of forest systems throughout the United States. This overview describes past, present, and future silvicultural practices within the oak-hickory ecosystem of the United States. Past land-use activitiesfavored oak development, butwildfire and livestock grazing controls have caused severe oak regeneration...

Derived crop management data for the LandCarbon Project

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schmidt, Gail; Liu, Shu-Guang; Oeding, Jennifer

2011-01-01

The LandCarbon project is assessing potential carbon pools and greenhouse gas fluxes under various scenarios and land management regimes to provide information to support the formulation of policies governing climate change mitigation, adaptation and land management strategies. The project is unique in that spatially explicit maps of annual land cover and land-use change are created at the 250-meter pixel resolution. The project uses vast amounts of data as input to the models, including satellite, climate, land cover, soil, and land management data. Management data have been obtained from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) and USDA Economic Research Service (ERS) that provides information regarding crop type, crop harvesting, manure, fertilizer, tillage, and cover crop (U.S. Department of Agriculture, 2011a, b, c). The LandCarbon team queried the USDA databases to pull historic crop-related management data relative to the needs of the project. The data obtained was in table form with the County or State Federal Information Processing Standard (FIPS) and the year as the primary and secondary keys. Future projections were generated for the A1B, A2, B1, and B2 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) scenarios using the historic data values along with coefficients generated by the project. The PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL) Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment (IMAGE) modeling framework (Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment, 2006) was used to develop coefficients for each IPCC SRES scenario, which were applied to the historic management data to produce future land management practice projections. The LandCarbon project developed algorithms for deriving gridded data, using these tabular management data products as input. The derived gridded crop type, crop harvesting, manure, fertilizer, tillage, and cover crop products are used as input to the LandCarbon models to represent the historic and the future scenario management data. The overall algorithm to generate each of the gridded management products is based on the land cover and the derived crop type. For each year in the land cover dataset, the algorithm loops through each 250-meter pixel in the ecoregion. If the current pixel in the land cover dataset is an agriculture pixel, then the crop type is determined. Once the crop type is derived, then the crop harvest, manure, fertilizer, tillage, and cover crop values are derived independently for that crop type. The following is the overall algorithm used for the set of derived grids. The specific algorithm to generate each management dataset is discussed in the respective section for that dataset, along with special data handling and a description of the output product.

Impacts of Potential Changes in Land Use, Climate, and Water Use on Water Availability, Coastal Carolinas Region, Southeastern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gurley, L. N.; Garcia, A. M.

2017-12-01

Sustainable growth in coastal areas with rapidly increasing populations, such as the coastal regions of North and South Carolina, relies on an understanding of the current state of coastal natural resources coupled with the ability to assess future impacts of changing coastal communities and resources. Changes in climate, water use, population, and land use (e.g. urbanization) will place additional stress on societal and ecological systems that are already competing for water resources. The potential effects of these stressors on water availability are not fully known. To meet societal and ecological needs, water resources management and planning efforts require estimates of likely impacts of population growth, land-use, and climate. Two Soil and Water Assessment (SWAT) hydrologic models were developed to help address the challenges that water managers face in the Carolinas: the (1) Cape Fear and (2) Pee Dee drainage basins. SWAT is a basin-scale, process-based watershed model with the capability of simulating water-management scenarios. Model areas were divided into two square mile sub-basins to evaluate ecological response at headwater streams. The sub-basins were subsequently divided into smaller, discrete hydrologic response units based on land use, slope, and soil type. Monthly and annual water-use data were used for 2000 to 2014 and included estimates of municipal, industrial, agricultural, and commercial water use. Models were calibrated for 2000 to 2014 and potential future streamflows were estimated through 2060 based on a suite of scenarios that integrated land use change projections, climate projections and water-use forecasts. The approaches and new techniques developed as part of this research could be applied to other coastal areas that face similar current and future water availability demands.

Biodiversity evaluation in tropical agricultural systems - How will rubber cultivation and land use change effect species diversity in SW China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cotter, M.; Grenz, J.; Sauerborn, J.

2012-04-01

The Greater Mekong Subregion is a known hotspot of biodiversity, which faces drastic changes due to human impact particularly with regard to infrastructure and economy. Within the framework of the Sino-German research project "Living Landscapes China" (LILAC), we have developed a biodiversity evaluation tool based on the combination of approaches from landscape ecology with detailed empirical data on species diversity and habitat characteristics of tropical plant and arthropod communities in a Geographical Information System. We use field ecological data to assess different spatial and qualitative aspects of the diversity and spatial distribution of species throughout the research area, a watershed in south-western Yunnan province, PR China. In addition, scenarios on the impact of land use change have been analyzed and compared in order to highlight the implications these possible future scenarios would have on species diversity within the research area. The aim of the presented tool is to provide scientists and policy makers who have to evaluate the consequences of scenarios of future land use with information on the current and likely future state of biodiversity in their research area or administrative region. This will enable them to assess the likely impacts of land use changes on structural and ecological diversity and allow for informed land use planning. The methodology developed for this tool can also be applied outside of the Greater Mekong Subregion, as the model structure allows for an easy adaption to other research areas and challenges, be it oil palm production in Southeast Asia or small scale farming in central Africa or the Amazon basin.

Storylines of combined land use and climatic drivers and their hydrological impacts in an alpine catchment (Brixental/Austria)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strasser, Ulrich; Förster, Kristian; Meissl, Gertraud; Marke, Thomas; Schermer, Markus; Stotten, Rike; Formayer, Herbert; Themessl, Matthias

2017-04-01

We present a numerical modelling experiment with storylines of coupled land use and climate evolution as input in the physically-based, distributed water balance model WaSiM. The aim is to quantify the effects of these two framing components on the future water cycle. The test site for the simulations is the catchment of the Brixentaler Ache in Tyrol/Austria (47.5°N, 322 km2). The climatic background is defined by simulations for the A1B and RCP 8.5 emission scenarios until 2050. These two climate projections were combined with three future land use developments for forest management, developed in an inter- and transdisciplinary assessment with local actors using plausible and consisent projections for forest management, policy, social cooperation, tourism and economy: (i) Ecological adaptation: The forest management consequently applies the political guidelines, and the forest cover is dominated by an ecological, place-adapted mixed cultivation with a harmonious age structure. (ii) Economical overexploitation and wildness: The increase in efficiency, cost reduction and short term results are in focus of the forest management. (iii) Withdrawal and wildness: Cultivation in general is decreasing, and the forest becomes vulnerable against natural hazards. A new module for snow-canopy interaction simulation, providing explicit rates of intercepted and sublimated snow from the trees and stems of the different forest stands, has been implemented in WaSiM. The new version of the model is used to model the coupled future climate/land use storylines for the Brixental. Results show the effects of climate change and land use on the water balance and streamflow in the catchment.

Interfacing models of wildlife habitat and human development to predict the future distribution of puma habitat

USGS Publications Warehouse

Burdett, Christopher L.; Crooks, Kevin R.; Theobald, David M.; Wilson, Kenneth R.; Boydston, Erin E.; Lyren, Lisa A.; Fisher, Robert N.; Vickers, T. Winston; Morrison, Scott A.; Boyce, Walter M.

2010-01-01

The impact of human land uses on ecological systems typically differ relative to how extensively natural conditions are modified. Exurban development is intermediate-intensity residential development that often occurs in natural landscapes. Most species-habitat models do not evaluate the effects of such intermediate levels of human development and even fewer predict how future development patterns might affect the amount and configuration of habitat. We addressed these deficiencies by interfacing a habitat model with a spatially-explicit housing-density model to study the effect of human land uses on the habitat of pumas (Puma concolor) in southern California. We studied the response of pumas to natural and anthropogenic features within their home ranges and how mortality risk varied across a gradient of human development. We also used our housing-density model to estimate past and future housing densities and model the distribution of puma habitat in 1970, 2000, and 2030. The natural landscape for pumas in our study area consisted of riparian areas, oak woodlands, and open, conifer forests embedded in a chaparral matrix. Pumas rarely incorporated suburban or urban development into their home ranges, which is consistent with the hypothesis that the behavioral decisions of individuals can be collectively manifested as population-limiting factors at broader spatial scales. Pumas incorporated rural and exurban development into their home ranges, apparently perceiving these areas as modified, rather than non-habitat. Overall, pumas used exurban areas less than expected and showed a neutral response to rural areas. However, individual pumas that selected for or showed a neutral response to exurban areas had a higher risk of mortality than pumas that selected against exurban habitat. Exurban areas are likely hotspots for puma-human conflict in southern California. Approximately 10% of our study area will transform from exurban, rural, or undeveloped areas to suburban or urban by 2030, and 35% of suitable puma habitat on private land in 1970 will have been lost by 2030. These land-use changes will further isolate puma populations in southern California, but the ability to visualize these changes had provided a new tool for developing proactive conservation solutions.

Regulating services as measures of ecological resilience on DoD lands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Angermeier, Paul; Villamagna, Amy M.

2015-01-01

Knowledge of the capacity and flow of ecosystem services can help DoD land managers make decisions that enhance cost-effectiveness, minimize environmental damage, and maximize resources available for military missions. We demonstrated a methodology to quantify and map selected regulating services (RS), which helps land managers envision tradeoffs. Our objectives were to 1) estimate current capacity of and demand for selected RS within DoD lands, 2) examine the effects of future DoD land management and climate changes on the capacity and flow of these RS, and 3) project how land-use and climate changes in nearby lands affect future demand for RS. Our approach incorporates widely accepted models and equations, remote sensing, GIS analysis, and stakeholder involvement. Required data include land cover/use, soil type, precipitation, and air temperature. We integrated data into the a) Surface Curve Number Method and b) Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation to estimate capacity of sediment, nitrogen (N) and surface-water regulation. Capacities and flows of RS vary greatly across landscapes and are likely to vary as climate changes or development occurs. Analyses of RS capacity and flow can help managers and planners prioritize actions in the context of best management practices and compatible use buffers. Staff surveys indicated that our approach was informative and easy to use. Implementation may be most limited by on-installation personnel time.

An integrated GIS-based interval-probabilistic programming model for land-use planning management under uncertainty--a case study at Suzhou, China.

PubMed

Lu, Shasha; Zhou, Min; Guan, Xingliang; Tao, Lizao

2015-03-01

A large number of mathematical models have been developed for supporting optimization of land-use allocation; however, few of them simultaneously consider land suitability (e.g., physical features and spatial information) and various uncertainties existing in many factors (e.g., land availabilities, land demands, land-use patterns, and ecological requirements). This paper incorporates geographic information system (GIS) technology into interval-probabilistic programming (IPP) for land-use planning management (IPP-LUPM). GIS is utilized to assemble data for the aggregated land-use alternatives, and IPP is developed for tackling uncertainties presented as discrete intervals and probability distribution. Based on GIS, the suitability maps of different land users are provided by the outcomes of land suitability assessment and spatial analysis. The maximum area of every type of land use obtained from the suitability maps, as well as various objectives/constraints (i.e., land supply, land demand of socioeconomic development, future development strategies, and environmental capacity), is used as input data for the optimization of land-use areas with IPP-LUPM model. The proposed model not only considers the outcomes of land suitability evaluation (i.e., topography, ground conditions, hydrology, and spatial location) but also involves economic factors, food security, and eco-environmental constraints, which can effectively reflect various interrelations among different aspects in a land-use planning management system. The case study results at Suzhou, China, demonstrate that the model can help to examine the reliability of satisfying (or risk of violating) system constraints under uncertainty. Moreover, it may identify the quantitative relationship between land suitability and system benefits. Willingness to arrange the land areas based on the condition of highly suitable land will not only reduce the potential conflicts on the environmental system but also lead to a lower economic benefit. However, a strong desire to develop lower suitable land areas will bring not only a higher economic benefit but also higher risks of violating environmental and ecological constraints. The land manager should make decisions through trade-offs between economic objectives and environmental/ecological objectives.

Integrating land use and climate change scenarios and models into assessment of forested watershed services in Southern Thailand.

PubMed

Trisurat, Yongyut; Eawpanich, Piyathip; Kalliola, Risto

2016-05-01

The Thadee watershed, covering 112km(2), is the main source of water for agriculture and household consumption in the Nakhon Srithammarat Province in Southern Thailand. As the natural forests upstream have been largely degraded and transformed to fruit tree and rubber plantations, problems with landslides and flooding have resulted. This research attempts to predict how further land-use/land-cover changes during 2009-2020 and conceivable changes in rainfall may influence the future levels of water yield and sediment load in the Thadee River. Three different land use scenarios (trend, development and conservation) were defined in collaboration with the local stakeholders, and three different rainfall scenarios (average rainfall, climate change and extreme wet) were determined on the basis of literature sources. Spatially explicit empirical modelling was employed to allocate future land demands and to assess the contributions of land use and rainfall changes, considering both their separate and combined effects. The results suggest that substantial land use changes may occur from a large expansion of rubber plantations in the upper sub-watersheds, especially under the development land use scenario. The reduction of the current annual rainfall by approximately 30% would decrease the predicted water yields by 38% from 2009. According to the extreme rainfall scenario (an increase of 36% with respect to current rainfall), an amplification of 50% of the current runoff could result. Sensitivity analyses showed that the predicted soil loss is more responsive to changes in rainfall than to the compared land use scenarios alone. However, very high sediment load and runoff levels were predicted on the basis of combined intensified land use and extreme rainfall scenarios. Three conservation activities-protection, reforestation and a mixed-cropping system-are proposed to maintain the functional watershed services of the Thadee watershed region. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Network Requirements in Support of Army’s LandWarNet Transformation

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-02-15

To overcome the challenges of future requirements for information dominance , the Army must develop a strategy that ensures its organizations have access to global networks and required services throughout any area of operation. This research project analyzes the Army’s transformation of the LandWarNet in support of an expeditionary Army engaged in persistent conflict. The paper identifies how well

Effects of land use change on soil carbon cycling in the conterminous United States from 1900 to 2050

Treesearch

Peter B. Woodbury; Linda S. Heath; James E. Smith

2007-01-01

We developed matrices representing historical area transitions between forest and other land uses. We projected future transitions on the basis of historical transitions and econometric model results. These matrices were used to drive a model of changes in soil and forest floor carbon stocks. Our model predicted net carbon emission from 1900 until 1982, then...

Historical and future land use effects on N2O and NO emissions using an ensemble modeling approach: Costa Rica's Caribbean lowlands as an example

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reiners, William A.; Liu, S.; Gerow, K.G.; Keller, M.; Schimel, D.S.

2002-01-01

[1] The humid tropical zone is a major source area for N2O and NO emissions to the atmosphere. Local emission rates vary widely with local conditions, particularly land use practices which swiftly change with expanding settlement and changing market conditions. The combination of wide variation in emission rates and rapidly changing land use make regional estimation and future prediction of biogenic trace gas emission particularly difficult. This study estimates contemporary, historical, and future N2O and NO emissions from 0.5 million ha of northeastern Costa Rica, a well-documented region in the wet tropics undergoing rapid agricultural development. Estimates were derived by linking spatially distributed environmental data with an ecosystem simulation model in an ensemble estimation approach that incorporates the variance and covariance of spatially distributed driving variables. Results include measures of variance for regional emissions. The formation and aging of pastures from forest provided most of the past temporal change in N2O and NO flux in this region; future changes will be controlled by the degree of nitrogen fertilizer application and extent of intensively managed croplands.

Historical and future land use effects on N2O and NO emissions using an ensemble modeling approach: Costa Rica's Caribbean lowlands as an example

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reiners, W. A.; Liu, S.; Gerow, K. G.; Keller, M.; Schimel, D. S.

2002-12-01

The humid tropical zone is a major source area for N2O and NO emissions to the atmosphere. Local emission rates vary widely with local conditions, particularly land use practices which swiftly change with expanding settlement and changing market conditions. The combination of wide variation in emission rates and rapidly changing land use make regional estimation and future prediction of biogenic trace gas emission particularly difficult. This study estimates contemporary, historical, and future N2O and NO emissions from 0.5 million ha of northeastern Costa Rica, a well-documented region in the wet tropics undergoing rapid agricultural development. Estimates were derived by linking spatially distributed environmental data with an ecosystem simulation model in an ensemble estimation approach that incorporates the variance and covariance of spatially distributed driving variables. Results include measures of variance for regional emissions. The formation and aging of pastures from forest provided most of the past temporal change in N2O and NO flux in this region; future changes will be controlled by the degree of nitrogen fertilizer application and extent of intensively managed croplands.

Statistical modelling predicts almost complete loss of major periglacial processes in Northern Europe by 2100.

PubMed

Aalto, Juha; Harrison, Stephan; Luoto, Miska

2017-09-11

The periglacial realm is a major part of the cryosphere, covering a quarter of Earth's land surface. Cryogenic land surface processes (LSPs) control landscape development, ecosystem functioning and climate through biogeochemical feedbacks, but their response to contemporary climate change is unclear. Here, by statistically modelling the current and future distributions of four major LSPs unique to periglacial regions at fine scale, we show fundamental changes in the periglacial climate realm are inevitable with future climate change. Even with the most optimistic CO 2 emissions scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6) we predict a 72% reduction in the current periglacial climate realm by 2050 in our climatically sensitive northern Europe study area. These impacts are projected to be especially severe in high-latitude continental interiors. We further predict that by the end of the twenty-first century active periglacial LSPs will exist only at high elevations. These results forecast a future tipping point in the operation of cold-region LSP, and predict fundamental landscape-level modifications in ground conditions and related atmospheric feedbacks.Cryogenic land surface processes characterise the periglacial realm and control landscape development and ecosystem functioning. Here, via statistical modelling, the authors predict a 72% reduction of the periglacial realm in Northern Europe by 2050, and almost complete disappearance by 2100.

Analyses on Regional Cultivated Land Changebased on Quantitative Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cao, Yingui; Yuan, Chun; Zhou, Wei; Wang, Jing

Three Gorges Project is the great project in the world, which accelerates economic development in the reservoir area of Three Gorges Project. In the process of development in the reservoir area of Three Gorges Project, cultivated land has become the important resources, a lot of cultivated land has been occupied and become the constructing land. In the same time, a lot of cultivated land has been flooded because of the rising of the water level. This paper uses the cultivated land areas and social economic indicators of reservoir area of Three Gorges in 1990-2004, takes the statistic analyses and example research in order to analyze the process of cultivated land, get the driving forces of cultivated land change, find the new methods to stimulate and forecast the cultivated land areas in the future, and serve for the cultivated land protection and successive development in reservoir area of Three Gorges. The results indicate as follow, firstly, in the past 15 years, the cultivated land areas has decreased 200142 hm2, the decreasing quantity per year is 13343 hm2. The whole reservoir area is divided into three different areas, they are upper reaches area, belly area and lower reaches area. The trends of cultivated land change in different reservoir areas are similar to the whole reservoir area. Secondly, the curve of cultivated land areas and per capita GDP takes on the reverse U, and the steps between the change rate of cultivated land and the change rate of GDP are different in some years, which indicates that change of cultivated land and change of GDP are decoupling, besides that, change of cultivated land is connection with the development of urbanization and the policy of returning forestry greatly. Lastly, the precision of multi-regression is lower than the BP neural network in the stimulation of cultivated land, then takes use of the BP neural network to forecast the cultivated land areas in 2005, 2010 and 2015, and the forecasting results are reasonable.

Spatial Patterns of Soil Organic Carbon in the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bliss, N. B.

2005-12-01

The Department of the Interior (DOI) has jurisdiction influencing approximately 22 percent of the land area of the United States. The poster presents estimates of the current stocks of soil organic carbon (SOC) on all lands and Federal lands. The DOI lands have about 22 percent of the nation's SOC, so the average carbon intensity (8.66 kg C m-2) about matches the average for all lands (8.81 kg C m-2). However the carbon on DOI lands is not evenly distributed. Of the 17.76 Petagrams (1 Pg = 1015 grams) of SOC on DOI lands, 13.07 Pg (74 percent) are in Alaska, and 4.69 Pg (26 percent) are in the Conterminous U.S. The Alaska soils are wetter and colder than the national average, and the DOI lands in the conterminous U.S. are warmer and drier than the average. A set of SOC maps is shown, developed by intersecting the State Soil Geographic (STATSGO) database with data on federal lands from the National Atlas. With 22 percent of the nation's soil carbon, the DOI lands are important in a national accounting of greenhouse gas emission and sequestration. Future behavior of these lands is uncertain, but in scenarios of warming or drying, carbon released by respiration may exceed carbon captured by photosynthesis, resulting in a net release of carbon to the atmosphere. If warming stimulates a net release of greenhouse gases, this represents a positive feedback contributing to future global warming, a very unstable condition for the global climate system.

Biofuel development, food security and the use of marginal land in China.

PubMed

Qiu, Huanguang; Huang, Jikun; Keyzer, Michiel; van Veen, Wim; Rozelle, Scott; Fisher, Guenther; Ermolieva, Tatiana

2011-01-01

With concerns of energy shortages, China, like the United States, European Union, and other countries, is promoting the development of biofuels. However, China also faces high future demand for food and feed, and so its bioenergy program must try to strike a balance between food and fuel. The goals of this paper are to provide an overview of China's current bioethanol program, identify the potential for using marginal lands for feedstock production, and measure the likely impacts of China's bioethanol development on the nation's future food self-sufficiency. Our results indicate that the potential to use marginal land for bioethanol feedstock production is limited. Applying a modeling approach based on highly disaggregated data by region, our analysis shows that the target of 10 million t of bioethanol by 2020 seems to be a prudent target, causing no major disturbances in China's food security. But the expansion of bioethanol may increase environmental pressures due to the higher levels of fertilizer use. This study shows also that if China were able to cultivate 45% of its required bioethanol feedstock on new marginal land, it would further limit negative effects of the bioethanol program on the domestic and international economy, but at the expense of having to apply another 750 thousand t of fertilizer. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

Anthropogenic and climatic controls on carbon and nitrogen exports from Mississippi river basin to Gulf of Mexico during 1800 - 2100: Implications for hypoxia and ocean acidification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tian, H.; Yang, J.; Zhang, B.; Pan, S.; Lohrenz, S. E.; Cai, W. J.; He, R.; Xue, Z. G.; Lu, C.; Ren, W.; Huang, W. J.; Yao, Y.

2016-02-01

The enlarged size of dead zone in the Gulf of Mexico in 2015, resulting from high summer precipitation and nutrient runoff from agriculture and other human activities in Mississippi river basin, has aroused plenty of scientific attentions and public concerns. Although recent-decade patterns of water/carbon/nitrogen exports from the US land to Gulf of Mexico have been intensively investigated through gauge station monitoring and empirical-based modeling, our understanding of its historical and future long-term trends and the underlying mechanisms is still limited. Climate variability and change, land cover/land use change (e.g., cropland shift from eastern US to Midwest US) and evolving land management practices (e.g., nitrogen fertilizer use in corn belt) are all important drivers regulating interannual, decadal and century-long variability in riverine carbon and nitrogen exports. In this study, we explore river discharge and carbon/nitrogen exports from US drainage basins in a 300-year period covering both historical and future eras (1800 - 2100) and further quantify the contributions of climate, land use, nitrogen fertilizer use, and atmospheric chemistry by using a process-based land ecosystem model (DLEM) with networked river system incorporated. The results indicate that spatial distribution and shift of agricultural land is of critical importance in shaping land-to-aquatic mass flow and coastal water quality. Historical pattern and future scenarios of climate variability and change play an important role in the trend of water yield and enhanced inter-annual variations of river discharge and carbon/nitrogen exports. Atmospheric nitrogen deposition and agricultural nitrogen fertilizer uses in land ecosystem largely contributed to land-to-aquatic nitrogen exports. Our sensitivity analyses with DLEM suggest that precipitation in the basin as well as nitrogen fertilizer use in US corn belt are important determinants of nutrient export and hence the size of dead zone in the Gulf of Mexico. These findings imply that we need to consider both climate and anthropogenic changes taking place in land ecosystems for better developing land management strategies in mitigating hypoxia and ocean acidification.

A stochastic Forest Fire Model for future land cover scenarios assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fiorucci, P.; Holmes, T.; Gaetani, F.; D'Andrea, M.

2009-04-01

Land cover change and forest fire interaction under climate and socio-economics changes, is one of the main issues of the 21th century. The capability of defining future scenarios of land cover and fire regime allow forest managers to better understand the best actions to be carried out and their long term effects. In this paper a new methodology for land cover change simulations under climate change and fire disturbance is presented and discussed. The methodology is based on the assumption that forest fires exhibits power law frequency-area distribution. The well known Forest Fire Model (FFM), which is an example of self organized criticality, is able to reproduce this behavior. Starting from this observation, a modified version of the FFM has been developed. The new model, called Modified Forest Fire Model (MFFM) introduces several new features. A stochastic model for vegetation growth and regrowth after fire occurrence has been implemented for different kind of vegetations. In addition, a stochastic fire propagation model taking into account topography and vegetation cover has been introduced. The MFFM has been developed with the purpose of estimating vegetation cover changes and fire regimes over a time windows of many years for a given spatial region. Two different case studies have been carried out. The first case study is related with Liguria (Italy), a region of 5400 km2 lying between the Cote d'Azur, France, and Tuscany, Italy, on the northwest coast of the Tyrrhenian Sea. This region is characterized by Mediterranean fire regime. The second case study has been carried out in California (Florida) on a region having similar area and characterized by similar climate conditions. In both cases the model well represents the actual fire regime in terms of power law parameters proving interesting results about future land cover scenarios under climate, land use and socio-economics change.

Development of a Coherent Lidar for Aiding Precision Soft Landing on Planetary Bodies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Amzajerdian, Farzin; Pierrottet, Diego; Tolson, Robert H.; Powell, Richard W.; Davidson, John B.; Peri, Frank

2005-01-01

Coherent lidar can play a critical role in future planetary exploration missions by providing key guidance, navigation, and control (GNC) data necessary for navigating planetary landers to the pre-selected site and achieving autonomous safe soft-landing. Although the landing accuracy has steadily improved over time to approximately 35 km for the recent Mars Exploration Rovers due to better approach navigation, a drastically different guidance, navigation and control concept is required to meet future mission requirements. For example, future rovers will require better than 6 km landing accuracy for Mars and better than 1 km for the Moon plus maneuvering capability to avoid hazardous terrain features. For this purpose, an all-fiber coherent lidar is being developed to address the call for advancement of entry, descent, and landing technologies. This lidar will be capable of providing precision range to the ground and approach velocity data, and in the case of landing on Mars, it will also measure the atmospheric wind and density. The lidar obtains high resolution range information from a frequency modulated-continuous wave (FM-CW) laser beam whose instantaneous frequency varies linearly with time, and the ground vector velocity is directly extracted from the Doppler frequency shift. Utilizing the high concentration of aerosols in the Mars atmosphere (approx. two order of magnitude higher than the Earth), the lidar can measure wind velocity with a few watts of optical power. Operating in 1.57 micron wavelength regime, the lidar can use the differential absorption (DIAL) technique to measure the average CO2 concentration along the laser beam using, that is directly proportional to the Martian atmospheric density. Employing fiber optics components allows for the lidar multi-functional operation while facilitating a highly efficient, compact and reliable design suitable for integration into a spacecraft with limited mass, size, and power resources.

Land use/land cover and land capability data for evaluating land utilization and official land use planning in Indramayu Regency, West Java, Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ambarwulan, W.; Widiatmaka; Nahib, I.

2018-05-01

Land utilization in Indonesia is regulated in an official spatial land use planning (OSLUP), stipulated by government regulations. However in fact, land utilizations are often develops inconsistent with regulations. OSLUP itself is also not usually compatible with sustainable land utilizations. This study aims to evaluate current land utilizations and OSLUP in Indramayu Regency, West Java. The methodology used is the integrated analysis using land use and land cover (LU/LC) data, land capability data and spatial pattern in OSLUP. Actual LU/LC are interpreted using SPOT-6 imagery of 2014. The spatial data of land capabilities are derived from land capability classification using field data and laboratory analysis. The confrontation between these spatial data is interpreted in terms of future direction for sustainable land use planning. The results shows that Indramayu regency consists of 8 types of LU/LC. Land capability in research area range from class II to VIII. Only a small portion of the land in Indramayu has been used in accordance with land capability, but most of the land is used exceeding its land capability.

An Australian Land Force for Conflict in a World Without Precedent (Future Warfare Concept Paper)

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-01-01

Michael B. Ryan, Australian Army Thesis: The current pace of change in the global security environment and information technology demands that, like...information) Wave societies.6 The current pace of change in the global security environment and information technology demands that, like all...Blue, downloaded from www.defence.gov.au/navy; La Franchi , Peter, “High Level Interoperability: Future Development of t Peter, “Development Role

Crater Morphology in the Phoenix Landing Ellipse: Insights Into Net Erosion and Ice Table Depth

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Noe Dobrea, E. Z.; Stoker, C. R.; McKay, C. P.; Davila, A. F.; Krco, M.

2015-01-01

Icebreaker [1] is a Discovery class mission being developed for future flight opportunities. Under this mission concept, the Icebreaker payload is carried on a stationary lander, and lands in the same landing ellipse as Phoenix. Samples are acquired from the subsurface using a drilling system that penetrates into materials which may include loose or cemented soil, icy soil, pure ice, rocks, or mixtures of these. To avoid the complexity of mating additional strings, the drill is single-string, limiting it to a total length of 1 m.

Autonomous Landing and Smart Anchoring for In-Situ Exploration of Small Bodies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ghavimi, Ali R.; Serricchio, Frederick; Hadaegh, Fred Y.; Dolgin, Ben

2000-01-01

Future NASA missions include in-situ scientific explorations of small interplanetary objects like comets and asteroids. Sample acquisition systems are envisioned to operate directly from the landers that are anchored to the surface. Landing and anchoring proves to be challenging in the absence of an attitude control system and in the presence of nearly zero-gravity environments with uncertain surface terrain and unknown mechanical properties. This paper presents recent advancements in developing a novel landing and anchoring control system for the exploration of small bodies.

The Value of GRACE Data in Improving, Assessing and Evaluating Land Surface and Climate Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Z.

2011-12-01

I will review how the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite measurements have improved land surface models that are developed for weather, climate, and hydrological studies. GRACE-derived terrestrial water storage (TWS) changes have been successfully used to assess and evaluate the improved representations of land-surface hydrological processes such as groundwater-soil moisture interaction, frozen soil and infiltration, and the topographic control on runoff production, as evident in the simulations from the latest Noah-MP, the Community Land Model, and the Community Climate System Model. GRACE data sets have made it possible to estimate key terrestrial water storage components (snow mass, surface water, groundwater or water table depth), biomass, and surface water fluxes (evapotranspiration, solid precipitation, melt of snow/ice). Many of the examples will draw from my Land, Environment and Atmosphere Dynamics group's work on land surface model developments, snow mass retrieval, and multi-sensor snow data assimilation using the ensemble Karman filter and the ensemble Karman smoother. Finally, I will briefly outline some future directions in using GRACE in land surface modeling.

Increasing Understanding of Public Problems and Policies, 1997.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ernstes, David P., Ed.; Hicks, Dawne M., Ed.

This document contains 21 papers: "Land Grant University and Extension in the 21st Century" (Jon Wefald); "A Reality Check" (Bud Webb); "Land Grant Colleges and Universities of the Future" (Michael J. Phillips); "Vulnerability of the Land Grant Colleges of Agriculture: A Public Affairs Perspective" (Allen Rosenfeld); "The Future of Land Grant…

25 CFR 170.400 - What is the purpose of transportation planning?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... RESERVATION ROADS PROGRAM Planning, Design, and Construction of Indian Reservation Roads Program Facilities... address current and future land use, economic development, traffic demand, public safety, health, and...

Development of Navigation Doppler Lidar for Future Landing Mission

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Amzajerdian, Farzin; Hines, Glenn D.; Petway, Larry B.; Barnes, Bruce W.; Pierrottet, Diego F.; Carson, John M., III

2016-01-01

A coherent Navigation Doppler Lidar (NDL) sensor has been developed under the Autonomous precision Landing and Hazard Avoidance Technology (ALHAT) project to support future NASA missions to planetary bodies. This lidar sensor provides accurate surface-relative altitude and vector velocity data during the descent phase that can be used by an autonomous Guidance, Navigation, and Control (GN&C) system to precisely navigate the vehicle from a few kilometers above the ground to a designated location and execute a controlled soft touchdown. The operation and performance of the NDL was demonstrated through closed-loop flights onboard the rocket-propelled Morpheus vehicle in 2014. In Morpheus flights, conducted at the NASA Kennedy Space Center, the NDL data was used by an autonomous GN&C system to navigate and land the vehicle precisely at the selected location surrounded by hazardous rocks and craters. Since then, development efforts for the NDL have shifted toward enhancing performance, optimizing design, and addressing spaceflight size and mass constraints and environmental and reliability requirements. The next generation NDL, with expanded operational envelope and significantly reduced size, will be demonstrated in 2017 through a new flight test campaign onboard a commercial rocketpropelled test vehicle.

BECCS capability of dedicated bioenergy crops under a future land-use scenario targeting net negative carbon emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kato, E.; Yamagata, Y.

2014-12-01

Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) is a key component of mitigation strategies in future socio-economic scenarios that aim to keep mean global temperature rise below 2°C above pre-industrial, which would require net negative carbon emissions in the end of the 21st century. Because of the additional need for land, developing sustainable low-carbon scenarios requires careful consideration of the land-use implications of deploying large-scale BECCS. We evaluated the feasibility of the large-scale BECCS in RCP2.6, which is a scenario with net negative emissions aiming to keep the 2°C temperature target, with a top-down analysis of required yields and a bottom-up evaluation of BECCS potential using a process-based global crop model. Land-use change carbon emissions related to the land expansion were examined using a global terrestrial biogeochemical cycle model. Our analysis reveals that first-generation bioenergy crops would not meet the required BECCS of the RCP2.6 scenario even with a high fertilizer and irrigation application. Using second-generation bioenergy crops can marginally fulfill the required BECCS only if a technology of full post-process combustion CO2 capture is deployed with a high fertilizer application in the crop production. If such an assumed technological improvement does not occur in the future, more than doubling the area for bioenergy production for BECCS around 2050 assumed in RCP2.6 would be required, however, such scenarios implicitly induce large-scale land-use changes that would cancel half of the assumed CO2 sequestration by BECCS. Otherwise a conflict of land-use with food production is inevitable.

BECCS capability of dedicated bioenergy crops under a future land-use scenario targeting net negative carbon emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kato, Etsushi; Yamagata, Yoshiki

2014-09-01

Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) is a key component of mitigation strategies in future socioeconomic scenarios that aim to keep mean global temperature rise below 2°C above preindustrial, which would require net negative carbon emissions in the end of the 21st century. Because of the additional need for land, developing sustainable low-carbon scenarios requires careful consideration of the land-use implications of deploying large scale BECCS. We evaluated the feasibility of the large-scale BECCS in RCP2.6, which is a scenario with net negative emissions aiming to keep the 2°C temperature target, with a top-down analysis of required yields and a bottom-up evaluation of BECCS potential using a process-based global crop model. Land-use change carbon emissions related to the land expansion were examined using a global terrestrial biogeochemical cycle model. Our analysis reveals that first-generation bioenergy crops would not meet the required BECCS of the RCP2.6 scenario even with a high-fertilizer and irrigation application. Using second-generation bioenergy crops can marginally fulfill the required BECCS only if a technology of full postprocess combustion CO2 capture is deployed with a high-fertilizer application in the crop production. If such an assumed technological improvement does not occur in the future, more than doubling the area for bioenergy production for BECCS around 2050 assumed in RCP2.6 would be required; however, such scenarios implicitly induce large-scale land-use changes that would cancel half of the assumed CO2 sequestration by BECCS. Otherwise, a conflict of land use with food production is inevitable.

Projecting global land-use change and its effect on ecosystem service provision and biodiversity with simple models.

PubMed

Nelson, Erik; Sander, Heather; Hawthorne, Peter; Conte, Marc; Ennaanay, Driss; Wolny, Stacie; Manson, Steven; Polasky, Stephen

2010-12-15

As the global human population grows and its consumption patterns change, additional land will be needed for living space and agricultural production. A critical question facing global society is how to meet growing human demands for living space, food, fuel, and other materials while sustaining ecosystem services and biodiversity [1]. We spatially allocate two scenarios of 2000 to 2015 global areal change in urban land and cropland at the grid cell-level and measure the impact of this change on the provision of ecosystem services and biodiversity. The models and techniques used to spatially allocate land-use/land-cover (LULC) change and evaluate its impact on ecosystems are relatively simple and transparent [2]. The difference in the magnitude and pattern of cropland expansion across the two scenarios engenders different tradeoffs among crop production, provision of species habitat, and other important ecosystem services such as biomass carbon storage. For example, in one scenario, 5.2 grams of carbon stored in biomass is released for every additional calorie of crop produced across the globe; under the other scenario this tradeoff rate is 13.7. By comparing scenarios and their impacts we can begin to identify the global pattern of cropland and irrigation development that is significant enough to meet future food needs but has less of an impact on ecosystem service and habitat provision. Urban area and croplands will expand in the future to meet human needs for living space, livelihoods, and food. In order to jointly provide desired levels of urban land, food production, and ecosystem service and species habitat provision the global society will have to become much more strategic in its allocation of intensively managed land uses. Here we illustrate a method for quickly and transparently evaluating the performance of potential global futures.

The status of tree improvement programs for northern tree species

Treesearch

David S. Canavera

1977-01-01

Forest tree improvement research and application in the Northeast is reviewed in the perspective of past development and future needs. Control over provenance selection can provide the best quality seed for today's reforestation programs. Future supplies of seed must come from seed orchards if forest land owners are to attain the maximum production per unit area...

Attempting to detect and record brushland in the northeastern United States using MSS data - Schoharie County, N.Y., as a case study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Baumann, Paul R.

1990-01-01

Before county and local governments will utilize satellite data extensively for landcover inventories, digital image processing techniques must be developed to identify transitional land-use conditions and create large-scale, readable land-cover maps. This study examines a satellite-based land-cover inventory done for Schoharie County, New York and reviews the problems encountered in identifying and mapping brushland - a significant transitional land use - within the county and region. Brushland throughout the Northeast represents a barometer for measuring the shift away from agricultural land use to second-home property. Detecting and locating brushland on a regular basis can greatly assist county and local government officials in planning and managing a county's future.

Light up the "no-man's land" on the brain stem.

PubMed

Kawase, T

1995-12-01

The ventral surface of the brain stem is anatomically surrounded by the clivus anteriorly, brain stem posteriorly and by the petrous pyramid and cranial nerves from IIIrd to XIIth laterally in the deep posterior cranial fossa. Neurosurgical extra-axial pathologies arising from the area are aneurysms on the vertebro-basilar artery, benign tumors such as clival meningiomas, chordomas, chondromas, trigeminal neurinomas and prepontine epidermoid tumors. Surgical access to the area had been difficult for long years since the neurosurgery was established, because located deeply in such a surgical blindness, so-called "no-man's land". However, recent technical development of "skull base surgery" is opening new doors to light up the surgical darkness of the "no-man's land". This paper reviews the history, development, technique and future prospect of the skull base surgery to open the "no-man's land".

Modelling soil erosion at European scale: the importance of management practices and the future climate and land use scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Panagos, Panos; Ballabio, Cristiano; Meusburger, Katrin; Poesen, Jean; Lugato, Emanuele; Montanarella, Luca; Alewell, Christine; Borrelli, Pasquale

2017-04-01

The implementation of RUSLE2015 for modelling soil loss by water erosion at European scale has introduced important aspects related to management practices. The policy measurements such as reduced tillage, crop residues, cover crops, grass margins, stone walls and contouring have been incorporated in the RUSLE2015 modelling platform. The recent policy interventions introduced in Good Agricultural Environmental Conditions of Common Agricultural Policy have reduced the rate of soil loss in the EU by an average of 9.5% overall, and by 20% for arable lands (NATURE, 526, 195). However, further economic and political action should rebrand the value of soil as part of ecosystem services, increase the income of rural land owners, involve young farmers and organize regional services for licensing land use changes (Land Degradation and Development, 27 (6): 1547-1551). RUSLE2015 is combining the future policy scenarios and land use changes introduced by predictions of LUISA Territorial Modelling Platform. Latest developments in RUSLE2015 allow also incorporating the climate change scenarios and the forthcoming intensification of rainfall in North and Central Europe contrary to mixed trends in Mediterranean basin. The rainfall erosivity predictions estimate a mean increase by 18% in European Union by 2050. Recently, a module of CENTURY model was coupled with the RUSLE2015 for estimating the effect of erosion in current carbon balance in European agricultural lands (Global Change Biology, 22(5), 1976-1984; 2016). Finally, the monthly erosivity datasets (Science of the Total Environment, 579: 1298-1315) introduce a dynamic component in RUSLE2015 and it is a step towards spatio-temporal soil erosion mapping at continental scale. The monthly mapping of rainfall erosivity permits to identify the months and the areas with highest risk of soil loss where conservation measures should apply in different seasons of the year. In the future, the soil erosion-modelling platform will incorporate the land use intra-annual variability, sediment transport and economic assessments of land degradation. Panagos, P., Borrelli, P., Robinson, D.A. 2015. Common Agricultural Policy: Tackling soil loss across Europe. Nature 526: 195 Panagos, P., Imeson, A., Meusburger, K., Borrelli, P., Poesen, J., Alewell, C. 2016. Soil Conservation in Europe: Wish or Reality? Land Degradation and Development, 27(6): 1547-1551 Lugato, E., Paustian, K., Panagos, P. et al. 2016. Quantifying the erosion effect on current carbon budget of European agricultural soils at high spatial resolution. Global Change Biology. 22(5): 1976-1984 Ballabio, C., Borrelli, P. et al. 2017. Mapping monthly rainfall erosivity in Europe. Science of the Total Environment, 579: 1298-1315

Identifying Barriers and Pathways to Success for Renewable Energy Development on American Indian Lands

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Necefer, Len Edward; Jones, Thomas Elisha

American Indian tribes possess lands rich with renewable energy (RE) resources. Tribes have great potential and need to develop these resources, yet face a host of barriers that continue to impede development. Understanding these challenges as well as the pathways that can be taken to overcome them may facilitate more economic development to meet community needs and better position tribes to play a role in securing a low-carbon energy future for the United States. This paper presents the results of an expert elicitation of 24 tribal energy experts from federal, tribal, academic, and private industry backgrounds to identify barriers andmore » opportunities for federally recognized tribes in the lower 48 states. Experts identified a number of unique challenges facing tribes including financing and funding, infrastructure, tribal leadership and staff, state-level influence, and partnerships. Cultural factors were seen only to be of concern with large-scale development. Tribal sovereignty is a significant motivation for RE development and has yet to be fully realized. Cultural considerations are critical to the success of future projects; smaller residential and community-scale projects may be a better fit. Improving partnerships between tribes and the private sector can increase RE deployment and overcome historical distrust. States can have a double-ended influence on projects within tribal lands through taxation.« less

Risk perception, future land use and stewardship: comparison of attitudes about Hanford Site and Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory.

PubMed

Burger, J; Sanchez, J; Roush, D; Gochfeld, M

2001-04-01

With the ending of the Cold War, the Department of Energy (DOE) is evaluating mission, future land use and stewardship of departmental facilities. This paper compares the environmental concerns and future use preferences of 351 people interviewed at Lewiston, Idaho, about the Hanford Site and Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (INEEL), two of DOE's largest sites. Although most subjects lived closer to Hanford than INEEL, most resided in the same state as INEEL. Therefore their economic interests might be more closely allied with INEEL, while their health concerns might be more related to Hanford. Few lived close enough to either site to be directly affected economically. We test the null hypotheses that there are no differences in environmental concerns and future land-use preferences as a function of DOE site, sex, age and education. When asked to list their major concerns about the sites, more people listed human health and safety, and environmental concerns about Hanford compared to INEEL. When asked to list their preferred future land uses, 49% of subjects did not have any for INEEL, whereas only 35% did not know for Hanford. The highest preferred land uses for both sites were as a National Environmental Research Park (NERP), and for camping, hunting, hiking, and fishing. Except for returning the land to the tribes and increased nuclear storage, subjects rated all future uses as more preferred at INEEL than Hanford. Taken together, these data suggest that the people interviewed know more about Hanford, are more concerned about Hanford, rate recreational uses and NERP as their highest preferred land use, and feel that INEEL is more suited for most land uses than Handford. Overall rankings for future land uses were remarkably similar between the sites, indicating that for these stakeholders, DOE lands should be preserved for research and recreation. These preferences should be taken into account when planning for long-term stewardship at these two DOE sites.

SMARTe 2008

EPA Science Inventory

Sustainable Management Approaches and Revitalization Tools - electronic (SMARTe), is an open-source, web-based, decision support system for developing and evaluating future reuse scenarios for potentially contaminated land. SMARTe contains resources and analysis tools for all asp...

SMARTe 2011

EPA Science Inventory

Sustainable Management Approaches and Revitalization Tools - electronic (SMARTe), is an open-source, web-based, decisions support system for developing and evaluating future reuse scenarios for potentially contaminated land. SMARTe contains resources and analysis tools for all a...

SMARTE 2007

EPA Science Inventory

Sustainable Management Approaches and Revitalization Tools-electronic (SMARTe), is an open-source, web-based, decision support system for developing and evaluating future reuse scenarios for potentially contaminated land. SMARTe contains guidance and analysis tools for all aspect...

Relative impacts of land use and climate change on summer precipitation in the Netherlands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daniels, Emma; Lenderink, Geert; Hutjes, Ronald; Holtslag, Albert

2016-10-01

The effects of historic and future land use on precipitation in the Netherlands are investigated on 18 summer days with similar meteorological conditions. The days are selected with a circulation type classification and a clustering procedure to obtain a homogenous set of days that is expected to favor land impacts. Changes in precipitation are investigated in relation to the present-day climate and land use, and from the perspective of future climate and land use. To that end, the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model is used with land use maps for 1900, 2000, and 2040. In addition, a temperature perturbation of +1 °C assuming constant relative humidity is imposed as a surrogate climate change scenario. Decreases in precipitation of, respectively, 3-5 and 2-5 % are simulated following conversion of historic to present, and present to future, land use. The temperature perturbation under present land use conditions increases precipitation amounts by on average 7-8 % and amplifies precipitation intensity. However, when also considering future land use, the increase is reduced to 2-6 % on average, and no intensification of extreme precipitation is simulated. In all, the simulated effects of land use changes on precipitation in summer are smaller than the effects of climate change, but are not negligible.

Modelling regional land change scenarios to assess land abandonment and reforestation dynamics in the Pyrenees (France)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vacquie, Laure; Houet, Thomas; Sohl, Terry L.; Reker, Ryan R.; Sayler, Kristi L.

2015-01-01

Over the last decades and centuries, European mountain landscapes have experienced substantial transformations. Natural and anthropogenic LULC changes (land use and land cover changes), especially agro-pastoral activities, have directly influenced the spatial organization and composition of European mountain landscapes. For the past sixty years, natural reforestation has been occurring due to a decline in both agricultural production activities and rural population. Stakeholders, to better anticipate future changes, need spatially and temporally explicit models to identify areas at risk of land change and possible abandonment. This paper presents an integrated approach combining forecasting scenarios and a LULC changes simulation model to assess where LULC changes may occur in the Pyrenees Mountains, based on historical LULC trends and a range of future socio-economic drivers. The proposed methodology considers local specificities of the Pyrenean valleys, sub-regional climate and topographical properties, and regional economic policies. Results indicate that some regions are projected to face strong abandonment, regardless of the scenario conditions. Overall, high rates of change are associated with administrative regions where land productivity is highly dependent on socio-economic drivers and climatic and environmental conditions limit intensive (agricultural and/or pastoral) production and profitability. The combination of the results for the four scenarios allows assessments of where encroachment (e.g. colonization by shrublands) and reforestation are the most probable. This assessment intends to provide insight into the potential future development of the Pyrenees to help identify areas that are the most sensitive to change and to guide decision makers to help their management decisions.

Land-use change may exacerbate climate change impacts on water resources in the Ganges basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsarouchi, Gina; Buytaert, Wouter

2018-02-01

Quantifying how land-use change and climate change affect water resources is a challenge in hydrological science. This work aims to quantify how future projections of land-use and climate change might affect the hydrological response of the Upper Ganges river basin in northern India, which experiences monsoon flooding almost every year. Three different sets of modelling experiments were run using the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) land surface model (LSM) and covering the period 2000-2035: in the first set, only climate change is taken into account, and JULES was driven by the CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) outputs of 21 models, under two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), whilst land use was held fixed at the year 2010. In the second set, only land-use change is taken into account, and JULES was driven by a time series of 15 future land-use pathways, based on Landsat satellite imagery and the Markov chain simulation, whilst the meteorological boundary conditions were held fixed at years 2000-2005. In the third set, both climate change and land-use change were taken into consideration, as the CMIP5 model outputs were used in conjunction with the 15 future land-use pathways to force JULES. Variations in hydrological variables (stream flow, evapotranspiration and soil moisture) are calculated during the simulation period. Significant changes in the near-future (years 2030-2035) hydrologic fluxes arise under future land-cover and climate change scenarios pointing towards a severe increase in high extremes of flow: the multi-model mean of the 95th percentile of streamflow (Q5) is projected to increase by 63 % under the combined land-use and climate change high emissions scenario (RCP8.5). The changes in all examined hydrological components are greater in the combined land-use and climate change experiment. Results are further presented in a water resources context, aiming to address potential implications of climate change and land-use change from a water demand perspective. We conclude that future water demands in the Upper Ganges region for winter months may not be met.

Historic and forecasted population and land-cover change in eastern North Carolina, 1992-2030

USGS Publications Warehouse

Claggett, Peter; Hearn,, Paul P.; Donato, David I.

2015-01-01

The Southeast Regional Partnership for Planning and Sustainability (SERPPAS) was formed in 2005 as a partnership between the Department of Defense (DOD) and State and Federal agencies to promote better collaboration in making resource-use decisions. In support of this goal, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) conducted a study to evaluate historic population growth and land-cover change, and to model future change, for the 13-county SERPPAS study area in southeastern North Carolina (fig. 1). Improved understanding of trends in land-cover change and the ability to forecast land-cover change that is consistent with these trends will be a key component of efforts to accommodate local military-mission imperatives while also promoting sustainable economic growth throughout the 13-county study area. The study had three principal objectives:    1.  Evaluate historic changes in population and land cover for the period 1992–2006 using both previously existing as well as newly generated land-cover data.    2.  Develop models to forecast future change in land cover using the data gathered in objective 1 in conjunction with ancillary data on the suitability of the various sub-areas within the study area for low- and high-intensity urban development.    3.  Deliver these results—including an executive-level briefing and a USGS technical report—to DOD, other project cooperators, and local counties in hard-copy and digital formats and via the Web through a map-based data viewer. This report provides a general overview of the study and is intended for general distribution to non-technical audiences.

Development of LIDAR sensor systems for autonomous safe landing on planetary bodies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amzajerdian, F.; Pierrottet, D.; Petway, L.; Vanek, M.

2017-11-01

Future NASA exploratory missions to the Moon and Mars will require safe soft-landings at the designated sites with a high degree of precision. These sites may include areas of high scientific value with relatively rough terrain with little or no solar illumination and possibly areas near pre-deployed assets. The ability of lidar technology to provide three-dimensional elevation maps of the terrain, high precision distance to the ground, and approach velocity can enable safe landing of large robotic and manned vehicles with a high degree of precision. Currently, NASA-LaRC is developing novel lidar sensors aimed at meeting NASA's objectives for future planetary landing missions under the Autonomous Landing and Hazard Avoidance (ALHAT) project. These lidar sensors are 3-Dimensional Imaging Flash Lidar, Doppler Lidar, and Laser Altimeter. The Flash Lidar is capable of generating elevation maps of the terrain identifying hazardous features such as rocks, craters, and steep slopes. The elevation maps collected during the approach phase between 1000 m to 500 m above the ground can be used to determine the most suitable safe landing site. The Doppler Lidar provides highly accurate ground velocity and distance data allowing for precision navigation to the selected landing site. Prior to the approach phase at altitudes of over 15 km, the Laser Altimeter can provide sufficient data for updating the vehicle position and attitude data from the Inertial Measurement Unit. At these higher altitudes, either the Laser Altimeter or the Flash Lidar can be used for generating a contour map of the terrain below for identifying known surface features such as craters for further reducing the vehicle relative position error.

Development of lidar sensor systems for autonomous safe landing on planetary bodies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amzajerdian, F.; Pierrottet, D.; Petway, L.; Vanek, M.

2017-11-01

Future NASA exploratory missions to the Moon and Mars will require safe soft-landings at the designated sites with a high degree of precision. These sites may include areas of high scientific value with relatively rough terrain with little or no solar illumination and possibly areas near pre-deployed assets. The ability of lidar technology to provide three-dimensional elevation maps of the terrain, high precision distance to the ground, and approach velocity can enable safe landing of large robotic and manned vehicles with a high degree of precision. Currently, NASA-LaRC is developing novel lidar sensors aimed at meeting NASA's objectives for future planetary landing missions under the Autonomous Landing and Hazard Avoidance (ALHAT) project [1]. These lidar sensors are 3-Dimensional Imaging Flash Lidar, Doppler Lidar, and Laser Altimeter. The Flash Lidar is capable of generating elevation maps of the terrain identifying hazardous features such as rocks, craters, and steep slopes. The elevation maps collected during the approach phase between 1000 m to 500 m above the ground can be used to determine the most suitable safe landing site. The Doppler Lidar provides highly accurate ground velocity and distance data allowing for precision navigation to the selected landing site. Prior to the approach phase at altitudes of over 15 km, the Laser Altimeter can provide sufficient data for updating the vehicle position and attitude data from the Inertial Measurement Unit. At these higher altitudes, either the Laser Altimeter or the Flash Lidar can be used for generating a contour map of the terrain below for identifying known surface features such as craters for further reducing the vehicle relative position error.

Future Battles and the Development of Military Concepts

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-08-22

Land Battle concept dating from the Cold War era. The author maintains tliat such an approach is tied to old ways of thinking; the world has changed...the current world economic and social state, along with anticipated future flash points around the globe; a new military operational concept titled...project power, let alone rival U.S. dominance on the high seas. An alternate and more plausible future is a world that will require frequent

San Pedro River Basin Data Browser (http://fws-case-12.nmsu.edu/SanPedro/)

EPA Science Inventory

Acquisition of primary spatial data and database development are initial features of any type of landscape assessment project. They provide contemporary land cover and the ancillary datasets necessary to establish reference condition and develop alternative future scenarios that ...

Complex forest dynamics indicate potential for slowing carbon accumulation in the southeastern United States.

PubMed

Coulston, John W; Wear, David N; Vose, James M

2015-01-23

Over the past century forest regrowth in Europe and North America expanded forest carbon (C) sinks and offset C emissions but future C accumulation is uncertain. Policy makers need insights into forest C dynamics as they anticipate emissions futures and goals. We used land use and forest inventory data to estimate how forest C dynamics have changed in the southeastern United States and attribute changes to land use, management, and disturbance causes. From 2007-2012, forests yielded a net sink of C because of net land use change (+6.48 Tg C yr(-1)) and net biomass accumulation (+75.4 Tg C yr(-1)). Forests disturbed by weather, insect/disease, and fire show dampened yet positive forest C changes (+1.56, +1.4, +5.48 Tg C yr(-1), respectively). Forest cutting caused net decreases in C (-76.7 Tg C yr(-1)) but was offset by forest growth (+143.77 Tg C yr(-1)). Forest growth rates depend on age or stage of development and projected C stock changes indicate a gradual slowing of carbon accumulation with anticipated forest aging (a reduction of 9.5% over the next five years). Additionally, small shifts in land use transitions consistent with economic futures resulted in a 40.6% decrease in C accumulation.

Current Status and Future Potential of Energy Derived from Chinese Agricultural Land: A Review

PubMed Central

Mao, Chunlan; Feng, Yongzhong; Zhang, Tong; Xing, Zhenjie; Wang, Yanhong; Zou, Shuzhen; Yin, Dongxue; Han, Xinhui; Ren, Guangxin; Yang, Gaihe

2015-01-01

Energy crisis is receiving attention with regard to the global economy and environmental sustainable development. Developing new energy resources to optimize the energy supply structure has become an important measure to prevent energy shortage as well as achieving energy conservation and emission reduction in China. This study proposed the concept of energy agriculture and constructed an energy agricultural technical support system based on the analysis of energy supply and demand and China's foreign dependence on energy resources, combined with the function of agriculture in the energy field. Manufacturing technology equipment and agricultural and forestry energy, including crop or forestry plants and animal feces, were used in the system. The current status and future potential of China's marginal land resources, energy crop germplasm resources, and agricultural and forestry waste energy-oriented resources were analyzed. Developing the function of traditional agriculture in food production may promote China's social, economic, and environmental sustainable development and achieve energy saving and emission reduction. PMID:25874229

Current status and future potential of energy derived from Chinese agricultural land: a review.

PubMed

Zhai, Ningning; Mao, Chunlan; Feng, Yongzhong; Zhang, Tong; Xing, Zhenjie; Wang, Yanhong; Zou, Shuzhen; Yin, Dongxue; Han, Xinhui; Ren, Guangxin; Yang, Gaihe

2015-01-01

Energy crisis is receiving attention with regard to the global economy and environmental sustainable development. Developing new energy resources to optimize the energy supply structure has become an important measure to prevent energy shortage as well as achieving energy conservation and emission reduction in China. This study proposed the concept of energy agriculture and constructed an energy agricultural technical support system based on the analysis of energy supply and demand and China's foreign dependence on energy resources, combined with the function of agriculture in the energy field. Manufacturing technology equipment and agricultural and forestry energy, including crop or forestry plants and animal feces, were used in the system. The current status and future potential of China's marginal land resources, energy crop germplasm resources, and agricultural and forestry waste energy-oriented resources were analyzed. Developing the function of traditional agriculture in food production may promote China's social, economic, and environmental sustainable development and achieve energy saving and emission reduction.

Space shuttle flying qualities and criteria assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Myers, T. T.; Johnston, D. E.; Mcruer, Duane T.

1987-01-01

Work accomplished under a series of study tasks for the Flying Qualities and Flight Control Systems Design Criteria Experiment (OFQ) of the Shuttle Orbiter Experiments Program (OEX) is summarized. The tasks involved review of applicability of existing flying quality and flight control system specification and criteria for the Shuttle; identification of potentially crucial flying quality deficiencies; dynamic modeling of the Shuttle Orbiter pilot/vehicle system in the terminal flight phases; devising a nonintrusive experimental program for extraction and identification of vehicle dynamics, pilot control strategy, and approach and landing performance metrics, and preparation of an OEX approach to produce a data archive and optimize use of the data to develop flying qualities for future space shuttle craft in general. Analytic modeling of the Orbiter's unconventional closed-loop dynamics in landing, modeling pilot control strategies, verification of vehicle dynamics and pilot control strategy from flight data, review of various existent or proposed aircraft flying quality parameters and criteria in comparison with the unique dynamic characteristics and control aspects of the Shuttle in landing; and finally a summary of conclusions and recommendations for developing flying quality criteria and design guides for future Shuttle craft.

A Hybrid FPGA/Tilera Compute Element for Autonomous Hazard Detection and Navigation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Villalpando, Carlos Y.; Werner, Robert A.; Carson, John M., III; Khanoyan, Garen; Stern, Ryan A.; Trawny, Nikolas

2013-01-01

To increase safety for future missions landing on other planetary or lunar bodies, the Autonomous Landing and Hazard Avoidance Technology (ALHAT) program is developing an integrated sensor for autonomous surface analysis and hazard determination. The ALHAT Hazard Detection System (HDS) consists of a Flash LIDAR for measuring the topography of the landing site, a gimbal to scan across the terrain, and an Inertial Measurement Unit (IMU), along with terrain analysis algorithms to identify the landing site and the local hazards. An FPGA and Manycore processor system was developed to interface all the devices in the HDS, to provide high-resolution timing to accurately measure system state, and to run the surface analysis algorithms quickly and efficiently. In this paper, we will describe how we integrated COTS components such as an FPGA evaluation board, a TILExpress64, and multi-threaded/multi-core aware software to build the HDS Compute Element (HDSCE). The ALHAT program is also working with the NASA Morpheus Project and has integrated the HDS as a sensor on the Morpheus Lander. This paper will also describe how the HDS is integrated with the Morpheus lander and the results of the initial test flights with the HDS installed. We will also describe future improvements to the HDSCE.

A hybrid FPGA/Tilera compute element for autonomous hazard detection and navigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Villalpando, C. Y.; Werner, R. A.; Carson, J. M.; Khanoyan, G.; Stern, R. A.; Trawny, N.

To increase safety for future missions landing on other planetary or lunar bodies, the Autonomous Landing and Hazard Avoidance Technology (ALHAT) program is developing an integrated sensor for autonomous surface analysis and hazard determination. The ALHAT Hazard Detection System (HDS) consists of a Flash LIDAR for measuring the topography of the landing site, a gimbal to scan across the terrain, and an Inertial Measurement Unit (IMU), along with terrain analysis algorithms to identify the landing site and the local hazards. An FPGA and Manycore processor system was developed to interface all the devices in the HDS, to provide high-resolution timing to accurately measure system state, and to run the surface analysis algorithms quickly and efficiently. In this paper, we will describe how we integrated COTS components such as an FPGA evaluation board, a TILExpress64, and multi-threaded/multi-core aware software to build the HDS Compute Element (HDSCE). The ALHAT program is also working with the NASA Morpheus Project and has integrated the HDS as a sensor on the Morpheus Lander. This paper will also describe how the HDS is integrated with the Morpheus lander and the results of the initial test flights with the HDS installed. We will also describe future improvements to the HDSCE.

Forecasting land-cover growth using remotely sensed data: a case study of the Igneada protection area in Turkey.

PubMed

Bozkaya, A Gonca; Balcik, Filiz Bektas; Goksel, Cigdem; Esbah, Hayriye

2015-03-01

Human activities in many parts of the world have greatly affected natural areas. Therefore, monitoring and forecasting of land-cover changes are important components for sustainable utilization, conservation, and development of these areas. This research has been conducted on Igneada, a legally protected area on the northwest coast of Turkey, which is famous for its unique, mangrove forests. The main focus of this study was to apply a land use and cover model that could quantitatively and graphically present the changes and its impacts on Igneada landscapes in the future. In this study, a Markov chain-based, stochastic Markov model and cellular automata Markov model were used. These models were calibrated using a time series of developed areas derived from Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) imagery between 1990 and 2010 that also projected future growth to 2030. The results showed that CA Markov yielded reliable information better than St. Markov model. The findings displayed constant but overall slight increase of settlement and forest cover, and slight decrease of agricultural lands. However, even the slightest unsustainable change can put a significant pressure on the sensitive ecosystems of Igneada. Therefore, the management of the protected area should not only focus on the landscape composition but also pay attention to landscape configuration.

Evaluation of dynamic coastal response to sea-level rise modifies inundation likelihood

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lentz, Erika E.; Thieler, E. Robert; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Stippa, Sawyer R.; Horton, Radley M.; Gesch, Dean B.

2016-01-01

Sea-level rise (SLR) poses a range of threats to natural and built environments1, 2, making assessments of SLR-induced hazards essential for informed decision making3. We develop a probabilistic model that evaluates the likelihood that an area will inundate (flood) or dynamically respond (adapt) to SLR. The broad-area applicability of the approach is demonstrated by producing 30 × 30 m resolution predictions for more than 38,000 km2 of diverse coastal landscape in the northeastern United States. Probabilistic SLR projections, coastal elevation and vertical land movement are used to estimate likely future inundation levels. Then, conditioned on future inundation levels and the current land-cover type, we evaluate the likelihood of dynamic response versus inundation. We find that nearly 70% of this coastal landscape has some capacity to respond dynamically to SLR, and we show that inundation models over-predict land likely to submerge. This approach is well suited to guiding coastal resource management decisions that weigh future SLR impacts and uncertainty against ecological targets and economic constraints.

OMEGA for the Future of Biofuels

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Trent, Jonathan

2010-01-01

OMEGA: Offshore Membrane Enclosure for Growing Algae. To develop a photobioreactor (PBR) for growing algae (Oil, food, fertilizer) that does not compete with agriculture for land (deployed offshore), water or fertilizer (uses/treats wastewater).

25 CFR 170.410 - What is the purpose of tribal long-range transportation planning?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... WATER INDIAN RESERVATION ROADS PROGRAM Planning, Design, and Construction of Indian Reservation Roads.... These strategies should address future land use, economic development, traffic demand, public safety...

Private land manager capacity to conserve threatened communities under climate change.

PubMed

Raymond, C M; Lechner, A M; Lockwood, M; Carter, O; Harris, R M B; Gilfedder, L

2015-08-15

Major global changes in vegetation community distributions and ecosystem processes are expected as a result of climate change. In agricultural regions with a predominance of private land, biodiversity outcomes will depend on the adaptive capacity of individual land managers, as well as their willingness to engage with conservation programs and actions. Understanding adaptive capacity of landholders is critical for assessing future prospects for biodiversity conservation in privately owned agricultural landscapes globally, given projected climate change. This paper is the first to develop and apply a set of statistical methods (correlation and bionomial regression analyses) for combining social data on land manager adaptive capacity and factors associated with conservation program participation with biophysical data describing the current and projected-future distribution of climate suitable for vegetation communities. We apply these methods to the Tasmanian Midlands region of Tasmania, Australia and discuss the implications of the modelled results on conservation program strategy design in other contexts. We find that the integrated results can be used by environmental management organisations to design community engagement programs, and to tailor their messages to land managers with different capacity types and information behaviours. We encourage environmental agencies to target high capacity land managers by diffusing climate change and grassland management information through well respected conservation NGOs and farm system groups, and engage low capacity land managers via formalized mentoring programs. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Watershed Characteristics and Land Management in the Nonpoint-Source Evaluation Monitoring Watersheds in Wisconsin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rappold, K.F.; Wierl, J.A.; Amerson, F.U.

1997-01-01

In 1992, the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources, in cooperation with the U.S. Geological Survey, began a land-use inventory to identify sources of contaminants and track the land-management changes for eight evaluation monitoring watersheds in Wisconsin. An important component of the land-use inventory has been developing descriptions and preliminary assessments for the eight watersheds. These descriptions establish a baseline for future data analysis. The watershed descriptions include sections on location, reference watersheds, climate, land use, soils and topography, and surface-water resources. The land-management descriptions include sections on objectives, sources of nonpoint contamination and goals of contaminant reduction, and implementation of best-management practices. This information was compiled primarily from the nonpoint-source control plans, county soil surveys, farm conservation plans, Federal and State agency data reports, and data collected through the land-use inventory.

Decision making guidelines for mining historic landfill sites in Flanders.

PubMed

Winterstetter, A; Wille, E; Nagels, P; Fellner, J

2018-04-20

This study aims at showing how the United Nations Framework Classification for Resources (UNFC) can help to classify potential landfill mining projects with different levels of maturity, from exploration to production, under technical, socio-economic and project-planning aspects. Taking the example of three former landfill sites in Flanders general decision making guidelines regarding the future management of old landfills are provided. Using the ECLAR methodology for the evaluation (E) and classification (CL) of anthropogenic resources (AR), the individual projects, where clean land and/or materials are recovered, are mapped under the three-dimensional UNFC system. The Bornem project, yields a negative Net Present Value (NPV) of -17 Mio € (-44 €/t of excavated waste), i.e. the project is currently not economically viable. In case of changing key parameters the landfill has, however, reasonable prospects for future economic extraction. The Turnhout land development turned out to be economically viable with a NPV of 361,000 € (8 €/t of excavated waste). The Zuienkerke remediation project is at a too early stage to determine its socioeconomic viability. The main focus to compare and prioritize potential landfill mining projects in Flanders should be on (1) site specific conditions (e.g. landfill's composition, land prices), (2) project related factors (e.g. remediation required vs. resource/land recovery, selected technologies and project set-ups, private vs. public evaluation perspective) and (3) the timing of mining, considering future development of costs, prices, laws, available data and information. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

KSC-2014-2644

NASA Image and Video Library

2014-05-21

CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. – From left, Chirold Epp, the Autonomous Landing and Hazard Avoidance Technology, or ALHAT, project manager, and Jon Olansen, Morpheus project manager, speak to members of the media near the north end of the Shuttle Landing Facility at NASA's Kennedy Space Center in Florida. Media also viewed Morpheus inside a facility near the landing facility. Project Morpheus tests NASA’s ALHAT and an engine that runs on liquid oxygen and methane, which are green propellants. These new capabilities could be used in future efforts to deliver cargo to planetary surfaces. The landing facility provides the lander with the kind of field necessary for realistic testing, complete with rocks, craters and hazards to avoid. Morpheus’ ALHAT payload allows it to navigate to clear landing sites amidst rocks, craters and other hazards during its descent. Project Morpheus is being managed under the Advanced Exploration Systems, or AES, Division in NASA’s Human Exploration and Operations Mission Directorate. The efforts in AES pioneer new approaches for rapidly developing prototype systems, demonstrating key capabilities and validating operational concepts for future human missions beyond Earth orbit. For more information on Project Morpheus, visit http://morpheuslander.jsc.nasa.gov/. Photo credit: NASA/Frankie Martin

Development of Thermal Protection Materials for Future Mars Entry, Descent and Landing Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cassell, Alan M.; Beck, Robin A. S.; Arnold, James O.; Hwang, Helen; Wright, Michael J.; Szalai, Christine E.; Blosser, Max; Poteet, Carl C.

2010-01-01

Entry Systems will play a crucial role as NASA develops the technologies required for Human Mars Exploration. The Exploration Technology Development Program Office established the Entry, Descent and Landing (EDL) Technology Development Project to develop Thermal Protection System (TPS) materials for insertion into future Mars Entry Systems. An assessment of current entry system technologies identified significant opportunity to improve the current state of the art in thermal protection materials in order to enable landing of heavy mass (40 mT) payloads. To accomplish this goal, the EDL Project has outlined a framework to define, develop and model the thermal protection system material concepts required to allow for the human exploration of Mars via aerocapture followed by entry. Two primary classes of ablative materials are being developed: rigid and flexible. The rigid ablatives will be applied to the acreage of a 10x30 m rigid mid L/D Aeroshell to endure the dual pulse heating (peak approx.500 W/sq cm). Likewise, flexible ablative materials are being developed for 20-30 m diameter deployable aerodynamic decelerator entry systems that could endure dual pulse heating (peak aprrox.120 W/sq cm). A technology Roadmap is presented that will be used for facilitating the maturation of both the rigid and flexible ablative materials through application of decision metrics (requirements, key performance parameters, TRL definitions, and evaluation criteria) used to assess and advance the various candidate TPS material technologies.

Land use and land cover data changes in Indian Ocean Islands: Case study of Unguja in Zanzibar Island.

PubMed

Mwalusepo, Sizah; Muli, Eliud; Faki, Asha; Raina, Suresh

2017-04-01

Land use and land cover changes will continue to affect resilient human communities and ecosystems as a result of climate change. However, an assessment of land use and land cover changes over time in Indian Ocean Islands is less documented. The land use/cover data changes over 10 years at smaller geographical scale across Unguja Island in Zanzibar were analyzed. Downscaling of the data was obtained from SERVIR through partnership with Kenya-based Regional Centre for Mapping of Resources for Development (RCMRD) database (http://www.servirglobal.net), and clipped down in ArcMap (Version 10.1) to Unguja Island. SERVIR and RCMRD Land Cover Dataset are mainly 30 m multispectral images include Landsat TM and ETM+Multispectral Images. Landscape ecology Statistics tool (LecoS) was used to analysis the land use and land cover changes. The data provide information on the status of the land use and land cover changes along the Unguja Island in Zanzibar. The data is of great significance to the future research on global change.

Land use in the lake states region: an analysis of past trends and projections of future changes.

Treesearch

Thomas E. Mauldin; Andrew J. Plantinga; Ralph J. Alig

1999-01-01

This paper presents the historic trends and future projections of forest, farm, and urban land uses for the Lake States of Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. Since the 1950s, forest and farm land have been decreasing, and urban and other land uses have been increasing throughout the Lake States. Forest, crop, and pasture land have decreased in the region by 3.2, 5.4...

Using land-cover data to understand effects of agricultural and urban development on regional water quality

USGS Publications Warehouse

Karstensen, Krista A.; Warner, Kelly L.

2010-01-01

The Land-Cover Trends project is a collaborative effort between the Geographic Analysis and Monitoring Program of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) to understand the rates, trends, causes, and consequences of contemporary land-use and land-cover change in the United States. The data produced from this research can lead to an enriched understanding of the drivers of future landuse change, effects on environmental systems, and any associated feedbacks. USGS scientists are using the EPA Level III ecoregions as the geographic framework to process geospatial data collected between 1973 and 2000 to characterize ecosystem responses to land-use changes. General land-cover classes for these periods were interpreted from Landsat Multispectral Scanner, Thematic Mapper, and Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus imagery to categorize and evaluate land-cover change using a modified Anderson Land-Use/Land-Cover Classification System for image interpretation.

Watershed management and sustainable development: Lessons learned and future directions

Treesearch

Karlyn Eckman; Hans M. Gregerson; Allen L. Lundgren

2000-01-01

Fundamental belief underlying the direction and content of this paper is that the paradigms of land and water management evolving into the 21st century increasingly favor a watershed focused approach. Underlying that approach is an appreciation of the processes of sustainable development and resource use. The increasing recognition that sustainable development and...

Excellent approach to modeling urban expansion by fuzzy cellular automata: agent base model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khajavigodellou, Yousef; Alesheikh, Ali A.; Mohammed, Abdulrazak A. S.; Chapi, Kamran

2014-09-01

Recently, the interaction between humans and their environment is the one of important challenges in the world. Landuse/ cover change (LUCC) is a complex process that includes actors and factors at different social and spatial levels. The complexity and dynamics of urban systems make the applicable practice of urban modeling very difficult. With the increased computational power and the greater availability of spatial data, micro-simulation such as the agent based and cellular automata simulation methods, has been developed by geographers, planners, and scholars, and it has shown great potential for representing and simulating the complexity of the dynamic processes involved in urban growth and land use change. This paper presents Fuzzy Cellular Automata in Geospatial Information System and remote Sensing to simulated and predicted urban expansion pattern. These FCA-based dynamic spatial urban models provide an improved ability to forecast and assess future urban growth and to create planning scenarios, allowing us to explore the potential impacts of simulations that correspond to urban planning and management policies. A fuzzy inference guided cellular automata approach. Semantic or linguistic knowledge on Land use change is expressed as fuzzy rules, based on which fuzzy inference is applied to determine the urban development potential for each pixel. The model integrates an ABM (agent-based model) and FCA (Fuzzy Cellular Automata) to investigate a complex decision-making process and future urban dynamic processes. Based on this model rapid development and green land protection under the influences of the behaviors and decision modes of regional authority agents, real estate developer agents, resident agents and non- resident agents and their interactions have been applied to predict the future development patterns of the Erbil metropolitan region.

Forecasting future phosphorus export to the Laurentian Great Lakes from land-derived nutrient inputs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

LaBeau, M. B.; Robertson, D. M.; Mayer, A. S.; Pijanowski, B. C.

2011-12-01

Anthropogenic use of the land through agricultural and urban activities has significantly increased phosphorus loading to rivers that flow to the Great Lakes. Phosphorus (P) is a critical element in the eutrophication of the freshwater ecosystems, most notably the Great Lakes. To better understand factors influencing phosphorus delivery to aquatic systems and thus their potential harmful effects to lake ecosystems, models that predict P export should incorporate account for changing changes in anthropogenic activities. Land-derived P from high yielding sources, such as agriculture and urban areas, affect eutrophication at various scales (e.g. specific bays to all of Lake Erie). SPARROW (SPAtially Referenced Regression On Watershed attributes) is a spatially explicit watershed model that has been used to understand linkages between land-derived sources and nutrient transport to the Great Lakes. The Great Lakes region is expected to experience a doubling of urbanized areas along with a ten percent increase in agricultural use over the next 40 years, which is likely to increase P loading. To determine how these changes will impact P loading, SPARROW have been developed that relate changes in land use to changes in nutrient sources, including relationships between row crop acreage and fertilizer intensity and urban land use and point source intensity. We used land use projections from the Land Transformation Model, a, spatially explicit, neural-net based land change model. Land use patterns from current to 2040 were used as input into HydroSPARROW, a forecasting tool that enables SPARROW to simulate the effects of various land-use and climate scenarios. Consequently, this work is focusing on understanding the effects of how specific agriculture and urbanization activities affect P loading in the watersheds of the Laurentian Great Lakes to potentially find strategies to reduce the extent and severity of future eutrophication.

Spatially explicit modeling of 1992-2100 land cover and forest stand age for the conterminous United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sohl, Terry L.; Sayler, Kristi L.; Bouchard, Michelle; Reker, Ryan R.; Friesz, Aaron M.; Bennett, Stacie L.; Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Sleeter, Rachel R.; Wilson, Tamara; Soulard, Christopher E.; Knuppe, Michelle; Van Hofwegen, Travis

2014-01-01

Information on future land-use and land-cover (LULC) change is needed to analyze the impact of LULC change on ecological processes. The U.S. Geological Survey has produced spatially explicit, thematically detailed LULC projections for the conterminous United States. Four qualitative and quantitative scenarios of LULC change were developed, with characteristics consistent with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on 5 Emission Scenarios (SRES). The four quantified scenarios (A1B, A2, B1, and B2) served as input to the Forecasting Scenarios of Land-use Change (FORE-SCE) model. Four spatially explicit datasets consistent with scenario storylines were produced for the conterminous United States, with annual LULC maps from 1992 through 2100. The future projections are characterized by a loss of natural land covers in most scenarios, with corresponding expansion of 10 anthropogenic land uses. Along with the loss of natural land covers, remaining natural land covers experience increased fragmentation under most scenarios, with only the B2 scenario remaining relatively stable in both proportion of remaining natural land covers and basic fragmentation measures. Forest stand age was also modeled. By 2100, scenarios and ecoregions with heavy forest cutting have relatively lower mean stand ages compared to those with less 15 forest cutting. Stand ages differ substantially between unprotected and protected forest lands, as well as between different forest classes. The modeled data were compared to the National Land Cover Database (NLCD) and other data sources to assess model characteristics. The consistent, spatially explicit, and thematically detailed LULC projections and the associated forest stand age data layers have been used to analyze LULC impacts on carbon and greenhouse gas fluxes, 20 biodiversity, climate and weather variability, hydrologic change, and other ecological processes.

The Future of Energy

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pallant, Amy; Pryputniewicz, Sarah; Lee, Hee-Sun

2017-01-01

This article describes a five-day online energy module, developed by the Concord Consortium (an educational research and development organization) in which students compare the effects of various energy sources on air quality, water quality, and land use. The module's interactive models explore hydraulic fracturing, real-world data on energy…

Mars exobiology landing sites for future exploration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Landheim, Ragnhild; Greeley, Ronald; Desmarais, David; Farmer, Jack D.; Klein, Harold

1993-01-01

The selection of landing sites for Exobiology is an important issue for planning for future Mars missions. Results of a recent site selection study which focused on potential landing sites described in the Mars Landing Site Catalog are presented. In addition, basic Exobiology science objectives in Mars exploration are reviewed, and the procedures used in site evaluation and prioritization are outlined.

Doppler Lidar Sensor for Precision Landing on the Moon and Mars

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Amzajerdian, Farzin; Petway, Larry; Hines, Glenn; Barnes, Bruce; Pierrottet, Diego; Lockhard, George

2012-01-01

Landing mission concepts that are being developed for exploration of planetary bodies are increasingly ambitious in their implementations and objectives. Most of these missions require accurate position and velocity data during their descent phase in order to ensure safe soft landing at the pre-designated sites. To address this need, a Doppler lidar is being developed by NASA under the Autonomous Landing and Hazard Avoidance (ALHAT) project. This lidar sensor is a versatile instrument capable of providing precision velocity vectors, vehicle ground relative altitude, and attitude. The capabilities of this advanced technology have been demonstrated through two helicopter flight test campaigns conducted over a vegetation-free terrain in 2008 and 2010. Presently, a prototype version of this sensor is being assembled for integration into a rocket-powered terrestrial free-flyer vehicle. Operating in a closed loop with vehicle's guidance and navigation system, the viability of this advanced sensor for future landing missions will be demonstrated through a series of flight tests in 2012.

Large scale land acquisitions and REDD+: a synthesis of conflicts and opportunities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carter, Sarah; Manceur, Ameur M.; Seppelt, Ralf; Hermans-Neumann, Kathleen; Herold, Martin; Verchot, Lou

2017-03-01

Large scale land acquisitions (LSLA), and Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation (REDD+) are both land based phenomena which when occurring in the same area, can compete with each other for land. A quantitative analysis of country characteristics revealed that land available for agriculture, accessibility, and political stability are key explanatory factors for a country being targeted for LSLA. Surprisingly LSLA occur in countries with lower accessibility. Countries with good land availability, poor accessibility and political stability may become future targets if they do not already have LSLA. Countries which high levels of agriculture-driven deforestation and LSLA, should develop interventions which reduce forest loss driven either directly or indirectly by LSLA as part of their REDD+ strategies. Both host country and investor-side policies have been identified which could be used more widely to reduce conflicts between LSLA and REDD+. Findings from this research highlight the need for and can inform the development of national and international policies on land acquisitions including green acquisitions such as REDD+. Land management must be considered with all its objectives—including food security, biodiversity conservation, and climate change mitigation—in a coherent strategy which engages relevant stakeholders. This is not currently occurring and might be a key ingredient to achieve the targets under the Sustainable Development Goals 2 and 15 and 16 (related to food security and sustainable agriculture and the protection of forests) among others.

Modelling the Impacts of Changing Land Cover/Land Use and Climate on Flooding in the Elk River Watershed, British Columbia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barnes, C. C.; Byrne, J. M.; Hopkinson, C.; MacDonald, R. J.; Johnson, D. L.

2015-12-01

The Elk River is a mountain watershed located along the eastern border of British Columbia, Canada. The Elk River is confined by railway bridges, roads, and urban areas. Flooding has been a concern in the valley for more than a century. The most recent major flood event occurred in 2013 affecting several communities. River modifications such as riprapped dykes, channelization, and dredging have occurred in an attempt to reduce inundation, with limited success. Significant changes in land cover/land use (LCLU) such as natural state to urban, forestry practices, and mining from underground to mountaintop/valley fill have changed terrain and ground surfaces thereby altering water infiltration and runoff processes in the watershed. Future climate change in this region is expected to alter air temperature and precipitation as well as produce an earlier seasonal spring freshet potentially impacting future flood events. The objective of this research is to model historical and future hydrological conditions to identify flood frequency and risk under a range of climate and LCLU change scenarios in the Elk River watershed. Historic remote sensing data, forest management plans, and mining industry production/post-mining reclamation plans will be used to create a predictive past and future LCLU time series. A range of future air temperature and precipitation scenarios will be developed based on accepted Global Climate Modelling (GCM) research to examine how the hydrometeorological conditions may be altered under a range of future climate scenarios. The GENESYS (GENerate Earth SYstems Science input) hydrometeorological model will be used to simulate climate and LCLU to assess historic and potential future flood frequency and magnitude. Results will be used to create innovative flood mitigation, adaptation, and management strategies for the Elk River with the intent of being wildlife friendly and non-destructive to ecosystems and habitats for native species.

Modeling the effects of land use and climate change on riverine smallmouth bass

USGS Publications Warehouse

Peterson, J.T.; Kwak, T.J.

1999-01-01

Anthropogenic changes in temperature and stream flow, associated with watershed land use and climate change, are critical influences on the distribution and abundance of riverine fishes. To project the effects of changing land use and climate, we modeled a smallmouth bass (Micropterus dolomieu) population in a midwestern USA, large river- floodplain ecosystem under historical (1915-1925), present (1977-1990), and future (2060, influenced by climate change) temperature and flow regimes. The age-structured model included parameters for temperature and river discharge during critical seasonal periods, fish population dynamics, and fishing harvest. Model relationships were developed from empirical field data collected over a 13-yr period. Sensitivity analyses indicated that discharge during the spawning/rearing period had a greater effect on adult density and fishing yield than did spawning/rearing temperature or winter discharge. Simulations for 100 years projected a 139% greater mean fish density under a historical flow regime (64.9 fish/ha) than that estimated for the present (27.1 fish/ha) with a sustainable fishing harvest under both flow regimes. Simulations under future climate-change-induced temperature and flow regimes with present land use projected a 69% decrease in mean fish density (8.5 fish/ha) from present and an unstable population that went extinct during 56% of the simulations. However, when simulated under a future climate-altered temperature and flow regime with historical land use, the population increased by 66% (45.0 fish/ha) from present and sustained a harvest. Our findings suggest that land-use changes may be a greater detriment to riverine fishes than projected climate change and that the combined effects of both factors may lead to local species extinction. However, the negative effects of increased temperature and precipitation associated with future global warming could be mitigated by river channel, floodplain, and watershed restoration.

Considering land-sea interactions and trade-offs for food and biodiversity.

PubMed

Cottrell, Richard S; Fleming, Aysha; Fulton, Elizabeth A; Nash, Kirsty L; Watson, Reg A; Blanchard, Julia L

2018-02-01

With the human population expected to near 10 billion by 2050, and diets shifting towards greater per-capita consumption of animal protein, meeting future food demands will place ever-growing burdens on natural resources and those dependent on them. Solutions proposed to increase the sustainability of agriculture, aquaculture, and capture fisheries have typically approached development from single sector perspectives. Recent work highlights the importance of recognising links among food sectors, and the challenge cross-sector dependencies create for sustainable food production. Yet without understanding the full suite of interactions between food systems on land and sea, development in one sector may result in unanticipated trade-offs in another. We review the interactions between terrestrial and aquatic food systems. We show that most of the studied land-sea interactions fall into at least one of four categories: ecosystem connectivity, feed interdependencies, livelihood interactions, and climate feedback. Critically, these interactions modify nutrient flows, and the partitioning of natural resource use between land and sea, amid a backdrop of climate variability and change that reaches across all sectors. Addressing counter-productive trade-offs resulting from land-sea links will require simultaneous improvements in food production and consumption efficiency, while creating more sustainable feed products for fish and livestock. Food security research and policy also needs to better integrate aquatic and terrestrial production to anticipate how cross-sector interactions could transmit change across ecosystem and governance boundaries into the future. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Global forecasts of urban expansion to 2030 and direct impacts on biodiversity and carbon pools.

PubMed

Seto, Karen C; Güneralp, Burak; Hutyra, Lucy R

2012-10-02

Urban land-cover change threatens biodiversity and affects ecosystem productivity through loss of habitat, biomass, and carbon storage. However, despite projections that world urban populations will increase to nearly 5 billion by 2030, little is known about future locations, magnitudes, and rates of urban expansion. Here we develop spatially explicit probabilistic forecasts of global urban land-cover change and explore the direct impacts on biodiversity hotspots and tropical carbon biomass. If current trends in population density continue and all areas with high probabilities of urban expansion undergo change, then by 2030, urban land cover will increase by 1.2 million km(2), nearly tripling the global urban land area circa 2000. This increase would result in considerable loss of habitats in key biodiversity hotspots, with the highest rates of forecasted urban growth to take place in regions that were relatively undisturbed by urban development in 2000: the Eastern Afromontane, the Guinean Forests of West Africa, and the Western Ghats and Sri Lanka hotspots. Within the pan-tropics, loss in vegetation biomass from areas with high probability of urban expansion is estimated to be 1.38 PgC (0.05 PgC yr(-1)), equal to ∼5% of emissions from tropical deforestation and land-use change. Although urbanization is often considered a local issue, the aggregate global impacts of projected urban expansion will require significant policy changes to affect future growth trajectories to minimize global biodiversity and vegetation carbon losses.

Global forecasts of urban expansion to 2030 and direct impacts on biodiversity and carbon pools

PubMed Central

Seto, Karen C.; Güneralp, Burak; Hutyra, Lucy R.

2012-01-01

Urban land-cover change threatens biodiversity and affects ecosystem productivity through loss of habitat, biomass, and carbon storage. However, despite projections that world urban populations will increase to nearly 5 billion by 2030, little is known about future locations, magnitudes, and rates of urban expansion. Here we develop spatially explicit probabilistic forecasts of global urban land-cover change and explore the direct impacts on biodiversity hotspots and tropical carbon biomass. If current trends in population density continue and all areas with high probabilities of urban expansion undergo change, then by 2030, urban land cover will increase by 1.2 million km2, nearly tripling the global urban land area circa 2000. This increase would result in considerable loss of habitats in key biodiversity hotspots, with the highest rates of forecasted urban growth to take place in regions that were relatively undisturbed by urban development in 2000: the Eastern Afromontane, the Guinean Forests of West Africa, and the Western Ghats and Sri Lanka hotspots. Within the pan-tropics, loss in vegetation biomass from areas with high probability of urban expansion is estimated to be 1.38 PgC (0.05 PgC yr−1), equal to ∼5% of emissions from tropical deforestation and land-use change. Although urbanization is often considered a local issue, the aggregate global impacts of projected urban expansion will require significant policy changes to affect future growth trajectories to minimize global biodiversity and vegetation carbon losses. PMID:22988086

43 CFR 431.9 - Future regulations.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... 43 Public Lands: Interior 1 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Future regulations. 431.9 Section 431.9 Public Lands: Interior Regulations Relating to Public Lands BUREAU OF RECLAMATION, DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR GENERAL REGULATIONS FOR POWER GENERATION, OPERATION, MAINTENANCE, AND REPLACEMENT AT THE BOULDER...

43 CFR 431.9 - Future regulations.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... 43 Public Lands: Interior 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Future regulations. 431.9 Section 431.9 Public Lands: Interior Regulations Relating to Public Lands BUREAU OF RECLAMATION, DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR GENERAL REGULATIONS FOR POWER GENERATION, OPERATION, MAINTENANCE, AND REPLACEMENT AT THE BOULDER...

Analyzing the Impacts of Land Use Land Change on Near Shore Coastal Habitat

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lehman, R. D.; Ta, E.; Boyle, C.; Alwood, B.

2017-12-01

The natural beauty of the United States Virgin Islands (USVI) has continued to attract visitors and residents, which overtime has increased human development and impact. The resulting land use change increases sediment loads and the flow of pollutants into surrounding nearshore environments such as coral reefs, mangroves, and seagrass beds. Compounded with regional climate-related processes such as rising ocean temperatures and acidification, future land-use change poses a formidable threat to coral reefs and other susceptible marine environments. Without a healthy environment, the USVI economy also becomes endangered because it is mainly supported by tourism and recreation. Using Google Earth Engine, we created a tool to composite yearly Landsat 5 TM, Landsat 8 OLI/TIRS and Sentinel-2 MSI images identify changes from 1985 to present day. Using these land cover change maps we then analyzed trends at a watershed scale using hydrological data. We found there is a spatial relationship between development intensity and the health of coral reefs. Our work supports the existing knowledge of the link between land use and coastal ecosystem health.

Uncertainty assessment of future land use in Brazil under increasing demand for bioenergy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van der Hilst, F.; Verstegen, J. A.; Karssenberg, D.; Faaij, A.

2013-12-01

Environmental impacts of a future increase in demand for bioenergy depend on the magnitude, location and pattern of the direct and indirect land use change of energy cropland expansion. Here we aim at 1) projecting the spatio-temporal pattern of sugar cane expansion and the effect on other land uses in Brazil towards 2030, and 2) assessing the uncertainty herein. For the spatio-temporal projection, three model components are used: 1) an initial land use map that shows the initial amount and location of sugar cane and all other relevant land use classes in the system, 2) a model to project the quantity of change of all land uses, and 3) a spatially explicit land use model that determines the location of change of all land uses. All three model components are sources of uncertainty, which is quantified by defining error models for all components and their inputs and propagating these errors through the chain of components. No recent accurate land use map is available for Brazil, so municipal census data and the global land cover map GlobCover are combined to create the initial land use map. The census data are disaggregated stochastically using GlobCover as a probability surface, to obtain a stochastic land use raster map for 2006. Since bioenergy is a global market, the quantity of change in sugar cane in Brazil depends on dynamics in both Brazil itself and other parts of the world. Therefore, a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, MAGNET, is run to produce a time series of the relative change of all land uses given an increased future demand for bioenergy. A sensitivity analysis finds the upper and lower boundaries hereof, to define this component's error model. An initial selection of drivers of location for each land use class is extracted from literature. Using a Bayesian data assimilation technique and census data from 2007 to 2011 as observational data, the model is identified, meaning that the final selection and optimal relative importance of the drivers of location are determined. The data assimilation technique takes into account uncertainty in the observational data and yields a stochastic representation of the identified model. Using all stochastic inputs, this land use change model is run to find at which locations the future land use changes occur and to quantify the associated uncertainty. The results indicate that in the initial land use map especially the locations of pastures are uncertain. Since the dynamics in the livestock sector play a major role in the land use development of Brazil, the effect of this uncertainty on the model output is large. Results of the data assimilation indicate that the drivers of location of the land uses vary over time (variations up to 50% in the importance of the drivers) making it difficult to find a solid stationary system representation. Overall, we conclude that projection up to 2030 is only of use for quantifying impacts that act on a larger aggregation level, because at local level uncertainty is too large.

The Study of Enhancing Plans on Korean Environmental Conservation Value Assessment Map (ECVAM)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sung, M.; Choi, Y.; Hwang, J.; Jeon, S. W.

2016-12-01

With the limitation of land area in the Republic of Korea, land use and excessive development in Korea is one of the huge socio-environmental problems. Plethora of land owners, government, and enterprises to develop land cover are still struggling for maintaining balance between efficient land utilization and sufficient land conservation. For the feasible management and land use in the future, ECVAM(as known as Environmental Conservation Value Assessment Map) was created, accompanied with objective environmental grading of land in South Korea as well as integrated environmental information. ECVAM is the mapping system expressed by five-graded quality whether to develop or conserve in given land area with different colours. This map was primarily produced as the version 1.0 to ultimately use land eco-friendly and thoroughly which contains legally considered grade factors, environmental and ecological factors since 2001. From 2013, this project has planned to renovate the version 2.0 in more precise methods - strengthening legal support for user expansion, more amplified scale to 1:5,000, and the wide-spread supply such as education for those who demands ECVAM to adjust other fields like Environmental Impact Assessment to cope with land developers. For this year, we framed the official guideline to facilitate governments to design their newly-upgraded ECVAM but also to encourage local governors to utilize this figure for given land assessments. This assessment system also include the theoretical concept called natural asset valuation and the base study plan analyzing Vertical Vegetation Profile in the grading element of Stability of Community Structure. For the further study, it needs to reorganize the assessment factors to make the linkage between the ministry of environment and the ministry of land, infrastructure and transport in Korea for sustainable land use as well as to satisfy the grading ones in other nations' environmental conservation assessments such as EU Biome with better synchronization. This is eventually able to prepare for the base or reference data on valuation of ecosystem service as well.

Modeling the Effects of Drought, Fire, Beetles, and Management on Future Carbon Cycling in the Western US

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buotte, P.; Law, B. E.; Hicke, J. A.; Hudiburg, T. W.; Levis, S.; Kent, J.

2017-12-01

Fire and beetle outbreaks can have substantial impacts on forest structure, composition, and function and these types of disturbances are expected to increase in the future. Therefore understanding the ecological impacts of these disturbances into the future is important. We used ecosystem process modeling to estimate the future occurrence of fire and beetle outbreaks and their impacts on forest resilience and carbon sequestration. We modified the Community Land Model (CLM4.5) to better represent forest growth and mortality in the western US through multiple avenues: 1) we increased the ecological resolution to recognize 14 forest types common to the region; 2) we improved CLM4.5's ability to handle drought stress by adding forest type-specific controls on stomatal conductance and increased rates of leaf shed during periods of low soil moisture; 3) we developed and implemented a mechanistic model of beetle population growth and subsequent tree mortality; 4) we modified the current fire module to account for more refined forest types; and 5) we developed multiple scenarios of harvest based on past harvest rates and proposed changes in land management policies. We ran CLM4.5 in offline mode with climate forcing data. We compare future forest growth rates and carbon sequestration with historical metrics to estimate the combined influence of future disturbances on forest composition and carbon sequestration in the western US.

Future climate and land uses effects on flow and nutrient loads of a Mediterranean catchment in South Australia.

PubMed

Shrestha, Manoj K; Recknagel, Friedrich; Frizenschaf, Jacqueline; Meyer, Wayne

2017-07-15

Mediterranean catchments experience already high seasonal variability alternating between dry and wet periods, and are more vulnerable to future climate and land use changes. Quantification of catchment response under future changes is particularly crucial for better water resources management. This study assessed the combined effects of future climate and land use changes on water yield, total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) loads of the Mediterranean Onkaparinga catchment in South Australia by means of the eco-hydrological model SWAT. Six different global climate models (GCMs) under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and a hypothetical land use change were used for future simulations. The climate models suggested a high degree of uncertainty, varying seasonally, in both flow and nutrient loads; however, a decreasing trend was observed. Average monthly TN and TP load decreased up to -55% and -56% respectively and were found to be dependent on flow magnitude. The annual and seasonal water yield and nutrient loads may only slightly be affected by envisaged land uses, but significantly altered by intermediate and high emission scenarios, predominantly during the spring season. The combined scenarios indicated the possibility of declining flow in future but nutrient enrichment in summer months, originating mainly from the land use scenario, that may elevate the risk of algal blooms in downstream drinking water reservoir. Hence, careful planning of future water resources in a Mediterranean catchment requires the assessment of combined effects of multiple climate models and land use scenarios on both water quantity and quality. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Assessing the impact of future land use and land cover changes on climate over Brazilian semiarid

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cunha, A. M.; Alvalá, R. S.; Kubota, P. Y.; Vieira, R.

2013-12-01

The continental surface vegetal cover has been considerably changed by human activities, mainly through natural vegetation conversion in grasslands. Such changes in surface cover may impact the regional and global climates, through of the changes in biophysical processes and CO2 exchanges between vegetation and atmosphere. In recent decades, most of the Brazilian territory has been presenting transformation in the land use/cover spatial patterns. The typical vegetation of the Brazilian semiarid, known as caatinga (closed shrubland) had been replaced by pasture lands. Based on that, the main objective of this work was to investigate the impacts of future land cover and land use changes (LCLUC) on surface processes and on the climate of Brazilian semiarid region. Numerical experiments using the AGCM/CPTEC/IBIS were performed in order to investigate the impacts of LCLUC on the climate of Brazilian semiarid due to the replacement of natural vegetation by pasture and degraded areas. The climate impacts of LUCC were assessed using climate simulations considering two scenarios of vegetation distribution: i) Potential Vegetation (Control) and ii) Future scenario of the vegetation: maximum pasture limited by areas of desert and semidesert. These degraded areas were obtained from the future projection of the biome distribution in South America developed by Salazar Velasquez (2009) using CPTEC PVMReg and emission scenarios A2 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). In general, the simulation results showed that the LCLUC, due to the changes in relevant surface variables, has caused alterations in local and neighborhood regions climate. The LCLUC leads to a decrease in mean rainfall during dry season at study area. A meridional dipole pattern with near surface temperature increase (reduction) in the northern (southern) areas of semiarid was found. The results also highlight that LUCC led to changes in the components of the surface energy and carbon balance. These results suggest that LCLUC, even on a small scale in Brazil's semiarid region, can cause climate impacts, in local and regional scale. Finally, we highlight that the diagnosis of the evolution of LUCC and its climatic implications are essential to guide policy makers in regard to resources application and on policies development, in order to achieve a better management and planning for this important region of the country.

The impact of systematic landscape conservation planning on ecosystem: Chen Youlan river watershed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Chi-ju

2017-04-01

Heraclitus said that "no man ever steps in the same river twice." Everything continues to change. Land use change will keep redefine itself and subject the Earth and humankind to collateral changes. Humankind benefits from ecosystem in many ways. The ecosystem provides people with nutrients, enriches soil with sediment, and sustains all living organisms with water; these benefits are known as ecosystem services. In Taiwan, land use change has impacted ecosystem and biodiversity on various levels. Thus, we took six land use scenarios from 1999 to 2005 in Chen Youlan river watershed as our case study, intending to observe the course of ecosystem and biodiversity changes and the cause of it. Systematic Landscape conservation planning (SLCP) framework can be adopted when designing land use policy to safeguard human interests and ecosystem. This study use SLCP to develop ecosystem services and biodiversity protection strategies. Several strategies were designed by using 1999 to 2005 data as provision to protect the intactness of future ecosystem services and biodiversity. This research explores the potential and possible impacts of different land use protection strategies in the future. It is possible to identify the conservation priority of a certain region by using the Zonation meta-algorithm. This study selects the zonation critical protection area (Joint set of Yushan National Park) as strategy A, B and C. Strategy D takes Yushan National Park as a protected area; unstable hot spots in 1999/03 (Joint set of Yushan National Park) are selected as strategy E. Next, we used Kappa statistical method to find the minimal ecosystem services change and biodiversity hotspots change of the five aforementioned strategies and compared with those from 1999/03. By the Kappa statistical method, we further prioritized the important conservation areas by strategy A, B, C, E in the future. The results can not only serve as management reference for government agencies, but also develop an ideal trajectory of policy making as well as human-nature dynamics, leading to a sustainable future. We do not have to be subject to changes passively, instead, we can evolve ourselves and actively initiate the evolutionary path towards sustainable coexistence with nature. Keywords: InVEST , CLUE-s , biodiversity , ecosystem services, ecosystem services hotspots, land use change, SLCP, Systematic Landscape conservation planning, Chen Youlan river

[Spatial tendency of urban land use in new Yinzhou Town of Ningbo City, Zhejiang Province of East China].

PubMed

Jiang, Wen-Wei; Guo, Hui-Hui; Mei, Yan-Xia

2012-03-01

By adopting gradient analysis combining with the analysis of urban land use degree, this paper studied the spatial layout characteristics of residential and industrial lands in new Yinzhou Town, and explored the location characters of various urban land use by selecting public green land, public facilities, and road as the location advantage factors. Gradient analysis could effectively connect with the spatial layout of urban land use, and quantitatively depict the spatial character of urban land use. In the new town, there was a new urban spatial center mostly within the radius of 2 km, namely, the urban core area had obvious location advantage in the cross-shaft direction urban development. On the south of Yinzhou Avenue, the urban hinterland would be constructed soon. In the future land use of the new town, the focus would be the reasonable vicissitude of industrial land after the adjustment of industrial structure, the high-efficient intensive use of the commercial land restricted by the compulsive condition of urban core area, and the agricultural land protection in the southeastern urban-rural fringe.

Spatial-temporal variation of marginal land suitable for energy plants from 1990 to 2010 in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Dong; Hao, Mengmeng; Fu, Jingying; Zhuang, Dafang; Huang, Yaohuan

2014-07-01

Energy plants are the main source of bioenergy which will play an increasingly important role in future energy supplies. With limited cultivated land resources in China, the development of energy plants may primarily rely on the marginal land. In this study, based on the land use data from 1990 to 2010(every 5 years is a period) and other auxiliary data, the distribution of marginal land suitable for energy plants was determined using multi-factors integrated assessment method. The variation of land use type and spatial distribution of marginal land suitable for energy plants of different decades were analyzed. The results indicate that the total amount of marginal land suitable for energy plants decreased from 136.501 million ha to 114.225 million ha from 1990 to 2010. The reduced land use types are primarily shrub land, sparse forest land, moderate dense grassland and sparse grassland, and large variation areas are located in Guangxi, Tibet, Heilongjiang, Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia. The results of this study will provide more effective data reference and decision making support for the long-term planning of bioenergy resources.

The CEOS constellation for land surface imaging

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bailey, G.B.; Berger, Marsha; Jeanjean, H.; Gallo, K.P.

2007-01-01

A constellation of satellites that routinely and frequently images the Earth's land surface in consistently calibrated wavelengths from the visible through the microwave and in spatial detail that ranges from sub-meter to hundreds of meters would offer enormous potential benefits to society. A well-designed and effectively operated land surface imaging satellite constellation could have great positive impact not only on the quality of life for citizens of all nations, but also on mankind's very ability to sustain life as we know it on this planet long into the future. The primary objective of the Committee on Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS) Land Surface Imaging (LSI) Constellation is to define standards (or guidelines) that describe optimal future LSI Constellation capabilities, characteristics, and practices. Standards defined for a LSI Constellation will be based on a thorough understanding of user requirements, and they will address at least three fundamental areas of the systems comprising a Land Surface Imaging Constellation: the space segments, the ground segments, and relevant policies and plans. Studies conducted by the LSI Constellation Study Team also will address current and shorter-term problems and issues facing the land remote sensing community today, such as seeking ways to work more cooperatively in the operation of existing land surface imaging systems and helping to accomplish tangible benefits to society through application of land surface image data acquired by existing systems. 2007 LSI Constellation studies are designed to establish initial international agreements, develop preliminary standards for a mid-resolution land surface imaging constellation, and contribute data to a global forest assessment.

International land Model Benchmarking (ILAMB) Package v002.00

DOE Data Explorer

Collier, Nathaniel [Oak Ridge National Laboratory; Hoffman, Forrest M. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory; Mu, Mingquan [University of California, Irvine; Randerson, James T. [University of California, Irvine; Riley, William J. [Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

2016-05-09

As a contribution to International Land Model Benchmarking (ILAMB) Project, we are providing new analysis approaches, benchmarking tools, and science leadership. The goal of ILAMB is to assess and improve the performance of land models through international cooperation and to inform the design of new measurement campaigns and field studies to reduce uncertainties associated with key biogeochemical processes and feedbacks. ILAMB is expected to be a primary analysis tool for CMIP6 and future model-data intercomparison experiments. This team has developed initial prototype benchmarking systems for ILAMB, which will be improved and extended to include ocean model metrics and diagnostics.

International land Model Benchmarking (ILAMB) Package v001.00

DOE Data Explorer

Mu, Mingquan [University of California, Irvine; Randerson, James T. [University of California, Irvine; Riley, William J. [Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory; Hoffman, Forrest M. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory

2016-05-02

As a contribution to International Land Model Benchmarking (ILAMB) Project, we are providing new analysis approaches, benchmarking tools, and science leadership. The goal of ILAMB is to assess and improve the performance of land models through international cooperation and to inform the design of new measurement campaigns and field studies to reduce uncertainties associated with key biogeochemical processes and feedbacks. ILAMB is expected to be a primary analysis tool for CMIP6 and future model-data intercomparison experiments. This team has developed initial prototype benchmarking systems for ILAMB, which will be improved and extended to include ocean model metrics and diagnostics.

Representing agriculture in Earth System Models: Approaches and priorities for development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McDermid, S. S.; Mearns, L. O.; Ruane, A. C.

2017-09-01

Earth System Model (ESM) advances now enable improved representations of spatially and temporally varying anthropogenic climate forcings. One critical forcing is global agriculture, which is now extensive in land-use and intensive in management, owing to 20th century development trends. Agriculture and food systems now contribute nearly 30% of global greenhouse gas emissions and require copious inputs and resources, such as fertilizer, water, and land. Much uncertainty remains in quantifying important agriculture-climate interactions, including surface moisture and energy balances and biogeochemical cycling. Despite these externalities and uncertainties, agriculture is increasingly being leveraged to function as a net sink of anthropogenic carbon, and there is much emphasis on future sustainable intensification. Given its significance as a major environmental and climate forcing, there now exist a variety of approaches to represent agriculture in ESMs. These approaches are reviewed herein, and range from idealized representations of agricultural extent to the development of coupled climate-crop models that capture dynamic feedbacks. We highlight the robust agriculture-climate interactions and responses identified by these modeling efforts, as well as existing uncertainties and model limitations. To this end, coordinated and benchmarking assessments of land-use-climate feedbacks can be leveraged for further improvements in ESM's agricultural representations. We suggest key areas for continued model development, including incorporating irrigation and biogeochemical cycling in particular. Last, we pose several critical research questions to guide future work. Our review focuses on ESM representations of climate-surface interactions over managed agricultural lands, rather than on ESMs as an estimation tool for crop yields and productivity.

Impact of climatic and environmental changes on flood-duration-frequencies in the Fengle Rriver (YangTze Basin, China)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salles, Christian; Chu, Yin; Tournoud, Marie-George; Ou, Mengli; Perrin, Jean-Louis; Cres, François-Noël; Ma, Youhua

2016-04-01

Future water management challenges such as flood risk are highly relevant to climate and land use changes. Climate change is expected to lead to an ongoing intensification of effects on changes in precipitation and evapotranspiration which could exacerbate flooding issues. Land use changes, modifications of agricultural practices and urbanization alter the apportionment of the different hydrological processes at the basin scale and could significantly affect the seasonality of streamflow. At the local scale, the consequences of climate and land use changes on flood occurrence and magnitude are a major issue for the economic development and management policy of basin area. This study apply a methodology for investigating the potential consequences of land use ,as well as precipitation and temperature changes on flood occurrence, duration and magnitude, accounting for uncertainties in scenario data and hydrological model parameters. The discharge time series predicted for the future were simulated from a calibrated and validated distributed hydrological model. The model was run from inputs which are -predicted rainfall time series based on scenarios of changes identified from a literature review, -future evapotranspiration rates assessed from temperature changes identified from a literature review -and scenarios of land-use changes The study area, the Fengle River basin (1500 km2), is located in the northeast part of Yangtze basin. The river is one of the main tributaries of the Chao Lake, the fifth largest natural lake of China. The lake catchment is 9130 km2 in area, including the city of Hefei and a large extent of agricultural and rural areas. Many changes are expected in land use and agricultural practices in the future, due to the touristic appeal of the Chao Lake shore and the growth of the city of Hefei. Climate changes are also expected in this region, with a high impact on rainfall regime. In the current period heavy storms and floods occur predominantly during summer. Using the above methodology the future dynamics of the Fengle River is characterized on discharge-duration-frequency curves. Results will be discussed with regards to the sensitivity of predicted flood occurrence, duration and magnitude by quantifying the impact of rainfall, temperature and land-use changes.

Anthropogenic land uses elevate metal levels in stream water in an urbanizing watershed.

PubMed

Yu, Shen; Wu, Qian; Li, Qingliang; Gao, Jinbo; Lin, Qiaoying; Ma, Jun; Xu, Qiufang; Wu, Shengchun

2014-08-01

Land use/cover change is a dominant factor affecting surface water quality in rapidly developing areas of Asia. In this study we examined relationships between land use and instream metal loadings in a rapidly developing mixed land use watershed in southeastern China. Five developing subwatersheds and one forested reference site (head water) were instrumented with timing- and rainfall-triggered autosampler and instream loadings of anthropogenic metals (Cu, Zn, Pb, Cr, Cd, and Mn) were monitored from March 2012 to December 2013. Farm land and urban land were positively, and forest and green land were negatively associated with metal loadings (except Cr) in stream water. All developing sites had higher loadings than the reference head water site. Assessed by Chinese surface water quality standard (GB3830-2002), instream loadings of Cu and Zn occasionally exceeded the Class I thresholds at monitoring points within farmland dominated subwatersheds while Mn loadings were greater than the limit for drinking water sources at all monitoring points. Farm land use highly and positively contributed to statistical models of instream loadings of Cu, Zn, Cd, and Mn while urban land use was the dominant contributor to models of Pb and Cd loadings. Rainfall played a crucial role in metal loadings in stream water as a direct source (there were significant levels of Cu and Zn in rain water) and as a driver of watershed processes (loadings were higher in wet years and seasons). Urbanization effects on metal loadings in this watershed are likely to change rapidly with development in future years. Further monitoring to characterize these changes is clearly warranted and should help to develop plans to avoid conflicts between economic development and water quality degradation in this watershed and in watersheds throughout rapidly developing areas of Asia. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

KSC-2014-2642

NASA Image and Video Library

2014-05-21

CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. – Jon Olansen, Morpheus project manager, speaks to members of the media inside a facility near the Shuttle Landing Facility at NASA's Kennedy Space Center in Florida. Behind Olansen is the Project Morpheus prototype lander. Project Morpheus tests NASA’s autonomous landing and hazard avoidance technology, or ALHAT, sensors and an engine that runs on liquid oxygen and methane, which are green propellants. These new capabilities could be used in future efforts to deliver cargo to planetary surfaces. The landing facility provides the lander with the kind of field necessary for realistic testing, complete with rocks, craters and hazards to avoid. Morpheus’ ALHAT payload allows it to navigate to clear landing sites amidst rocks, craters and other hazards during its descent. Project Morpheus is being managed under the Advanced Exploration Systems, or AES, Division in NASA’s Human Exploration and Operations Mission Directorate. The efforts in AES pioneer new approaches for rapidly developing prototype systems, demonstrating key capabilities and validating operational concepts for future human missions beyond Earth orbit. For more information on Project Morpheus, visit http://morpheuslander.jsc.nasa.gov/. Photo credit: NASA/Frankie Martin

KSC-2014-2641

NASA Image and Video Library

2014-05-21

CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. – Jon Olansen, Morpheus project manager, speaks to members of the media inside a facility near the Shuttle Landing Facility at NASA's Kennedy Space Center in Florida. Behind Olansen is the Project Morpheus prototype lander. Project Morpheus tests NASA’s autonomous landing and hazard avoidance technology, or ALHAT, sensors and an engine that runs on liquid oxygen and methane, which are green propellants. These new capabilities could be used in future efforts to deliver cargo to planetary surfaces. The landing facility provides the lander with the kind of field necessary for realistic testing, complete with rocks, craters and hazards to avoid. Morpheus’ ALHAT payload allows it to navigate to clear landing sites amidst rocks, craters and other hazards during its descent. Project Morpheus is being managed under the Advanced Exploration Systems, or AES, Division in NASA’s Human Exploration and Operations Mission Directorate. The efforts in AES pioneer new approaches for rapidly developing prototype systems, demonstrating key capabilities and validating operational concepts for future human missions beyond Earth orbit. For more information on Project Morpheus, visit http://morpheuslander.jsc.nasa.gov/. Photo credit: NASA/Frankie Martin

KSC-2014-2643

NASA Image and Video Library

2014-05-21

CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. – Chirold Epp, the Autonomous Landing and Hazard Avoidance Technology, or ALHAT, project manager, speaks to members of the media inside a facility near the Shuttle Landing Facility at NASA's Kennedy Space Center in Florida. Behind Epp is the Project Morpheus prototype lander. Project Morpheus tests NASA’s ALHAT sensors and an engine that runs on liquid oxygen and methane, which are green propellants. These new capabilities could be used in future efforts to deliver cargo to planetary surfaces. The landing facility provides the lander with the kind of field necessary for realistic testing, complete with rocks, craters and hazards to avoid. Morpheus’ ALHAT payload allows it to navigate to clear landing sites amidst rocks, craters and other hazards during its descent. Project Morpheus is being managed under the Advanced Exploration Systems, or AES, Division in NASA’s Human Exploration and Operations Mission Directorate. The efforts in AES pioneer new approaches for rapidly developing prototype systems, demonstrating key capabilities and validating operational concepts for future human missions beyond Earth orbit. For more information on Project Morpheus, visit http://morpheuslander.jsc.nasa.gov/. Photo credit: NASA/Frankie Martin

Trajectory Guidance for Mars Robotic Precursors: Aerocapture, Entry, Descent, and Landing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sostaric, Ronald R.; Zumwalt, Carlie; Garcia-Llama, Eduardo; Powell, Richard; Shidner, Jeremy

2011-01-01

Future crewed missions to Mars require improvements in landed mass capability beyond that which is possible using state-of-the-art Mars Entry, Descent, and Landing (EDL) systems. Current systems are capable of an estimated maximum landed mass of 1-1.5 metric tons (MT), while human Mars studies require 20-40 MT. A set of technologies were investigated by the EDL Systems Analysis (SA) project to assess the performance of candidate EDL architectures. A single architecture was selected for the design of a robotic precursor mission, entitled Exploration Feed Forward (EFF), whose objective is to demonstrate these technologies. In particular, inflatable aerodynamic decelerators (IADs) and supersonic retro-propulsion (SRP) have been shown to have the greatest mass benefit and extensibility to future exploration missions. In order to evaluate these technologies and develop the mission, candidate guidance algorithms have been coded into the simulation for the purposes of studying system performance. These guidance algorithms include aerocapture, entry, and powered descent. The performance of the algorithms for each of these phases in the presence of dispersions has been assessed using a Monte Carlo technique.

Human Mars Landing Site and Impacts on Mars Surface Operations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bussey, Ben; Hoffman, Stephen J.

2016-01-01

NASA has begun a process to identify and discuss candidate locations where humans could land, live and work on the Martian surface. These locations are referred to as Exploration Zones (EZs). Given current mission concepts, an EZ is a collection of Regions of Interest (ROIs) that are located within approximately 100 kilometers of a centralized landing site. ROIs are areas that are relevant for scientific investigation and/or development/maturation of capabilities and resources necessary for a sustainable human presence. The EZ also contains a landing site and a habitation site that will be used by multiple human crews during missions to explore and utilize the ROIs within the EZ. These candidate EZs will be used by NASA as part of a multi-year process of determining where and how humans could explore Mars. In the near term this process includes: (a) identifying locations that would maximize the potential science return from future human exploration missions, (b) identifying locations with the potential for resources required to support humans, (c) developing concepts and engineering systems needed by future human crews to conduct operations within an EZ, and (d) identifying key characteristics of the proposed candidate EZs that cannot be evaluated using existing data sets, thus helping to define precursor measurements needed in advance of human missions. Existing and future robotic spacecraft will be tasked to gather data from specific Mars surface sites within the representative EZs to support these NASA activities. The proposed paper will describe NASA's initial steps for identifying and evaluating candidate EZs and ROIs. This includes plans for the "First Landing Site/Exploration Zone Workshop for Human Missions to the Surface of Mars" to be held in October 2015 at which proposals for EZs and ROIs will be presented and discussed. It will also include a discussion of how these considerations are (or will be) taken into account as future robotic Mars missions are defined and developed. One or more representative EZs, drawn from similar previous studies involving Mars sites, will be used in the proposed paper to illustrate the process NASA envisions for gathering additional data from robotic precursor missions to assist in making a final selection of an EZ for human crews as well as the steps likely to occur during the buildup of a habitation site. Examples of the systems and operations likely to be used by human crews, assisted by robotic vehicles, to explore the scientific ROIs as well as developing the resource ROIs within the example EZs will be discussed.

Land Suitability Assessment in the Catchment Area of Four Southwestern Atlantic Coastal Lagoons: Multicriteria and Optimization Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodriguez-Gallego, Lorena; Achkar, Marcel; Conde, Daniel

2012-07-01

In the present study, a land suitability assessment was conducted in the basin of four Uruguayan coastal lagoons (Southwestern Atlantic) to analyze the productive development while minimizing eutrophication, biodiversity loss and conflicts among different land uses. Suitable land for agriculture, forest, livestock ranching, tourism and conservation sectors were initially established based on a multi-attribute model developed using a geographic information system. Experts were consulted to determine the requirements for each land use sector and the incompatibilities among land use types. The current and potential conflicts among incompatible land use sectors were analyzed by overlapping land suitability maps. We subsequently applied a multi-objective model where land (pixels) with similar suitability was clustered into "land suitability groups", using a two-phase cluster analysis and the Akaike Information Criterion. Finally, a linear programming optimization procedure was applied to allocate land use sectors into land suitable groups, maximizing total suitability and minimizing interference among sectors. Results indicated that current land use overlapped by 4.7 % with suitable land of other incompatible sectors. However, the suitable land of incompatible sectors overlapped in 20.3 % of the study area, indicating a high potential for the occurrence of future conflict. The highest competition was between agriculture and conservation, followed by forest and agriculture. We explored scenarios where livestock ranching and tourism intensified, and found that interference with conservation and agriculture notably increased. This methodology allowed us to analyze current and potential land use conflicts and to contribute to the strategic planning of the study area.

Land suitability assessment in the catchment area of four Southwestern Atlantic coastal lagoons: multicriteria and optimization modeling.

PubMed

Rodriguez-Gallego, Lorena; Achkar, Marcel; Conde, Daniel

2012-07-01

In the present study, a land suitability assessment was conducted in the basin of four Uruguayan coastal lagoons (Southwestern Atlantic) to analyze the productive development while minimizing eutrophication, biodiversity loss and conflicts among different land uses. Suitable land for agriculture, forest, livestock ranching, tourism and conservation sectors were initially established based on a multi-attribute model developed using a geographic information system. Experts were consulted to determine the requirements for each land use sector and the incompatibilities among land use types. The current and potential conflicts among incompatible land use sectors were analyzed by overlapping land suitability maps. We subsequently applied a multi-objective model where land (pixels) with similar suitability was clustered into "land suitability groups", using a two-phase cluster analysis and the Akaike Information Criterion. Finally, a linear programming optimization procedure was applied to allocate land use sectors into land suitable groups, maximizing total suitability and minimizing interference among sectors. Results indicated that current land use overlapped by 4.7 % with suitable land of other incompatible sectors. However, the suitable land of incompatible sectors overlapped in 20.3 % of the study area, indicating a high potential for the occurrence of future conflict. The highest competition was between agriculture and conservation, followed by forest and agriculture. We explored scenarios where livestock ranching and tourism intensified, and found that interference with conservation and agriculture notably increased. This methodology allowed us to analyze current and potential land use conflicts and to contribute to the strategic planning of the study area.

Locally-Adaptive, Spatially-Explicit Projection of U.S. Population for 2030 and 2050

DOE PAGES

McKee, Jacob J.; Rose, Amy N.; Bright, Eddie A.; ...

2015-02-03

Localized adverse events, including natural hazards, epidemiological events, and human conflict, underscore the criticality of quantifying and mapping current population. Moreover, knowing the spatial distribution of future population allows for increased preparation in the event of an emergency. Building on the spatial interpolation technique previously developed for high resolution population distribution data (LandScan Global and LandScan USA), we have constructed an empirically-informed spatial distribution of the projected population of the contiguous U.S. for 2030 and 2050. Whereas most current large-scale, spatially explicit population projections typically rely on a population gravity model to determine areas of future growth, our projection modelmore » departs from these by accounting for multiple components that affect population distribution. Modelled variables, which included land cover, slope, distances to larger cities, and a moving average of current population, were locally adaptive and geographically varying. The resulting weighted surface was used to determine which areas had the greatest likelihood for future population change. Population projections of county level numbers were developed using a modified version of the U.S. Census s projection methodology with the U.S. Census s official projection as the benchmark. Applications of our model include, but are not limited to, suitability modelling, service area planning for governmental agencies, consequence assessment, mitigation planning and implementation, and assessment of spatially vulnerable populations.« less

Locally-Adaptive, Spatially-Explicit Projection of U.S. Population for 2030 and 2050

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

McKee, Jacob J.; Rose, Amy N.; Bright, Eddie A.

Localized adverse events, including natural hazards, epidemiological events, and human conflict, underscore the criticality of quantifying and mapping current population. Moreover, knowing the spatial distribution of future population allows for increased preparation in the event of an emergency. Building on the spatial interpolation technique previously developed for high resolution population distribution data (LandScan Global and LandScan USA), we have constructed an empirically-informed spatial distribution of the projected population of the contiguous U.S. for 2030 and 2050. Whereas most current large-scale, spatially explicit population projections typically rely on a population gravity model to determine areas of future growth, our projection modelmore » departs from these by accounting for multiple components that affect population distribution. Modelled variables, which included land cover, slope, distances to larger cities, and a moving average of current population, were locally adaptive and geographically varying. The resulting weighted surface was used to determine which areas had the greatest likelihood for future population change. Population projections of county level numbers were developed using a modified version of the U.S. Census s projection methodology with the U.S. Census s official projection as the benchmark. Applications of our model include, but are not limited to, suitability modelling, service area planning for governmental agencies, consequence assessment, mitigation planning and implementation, and assessment of spatially vulnerable populations.« less

Does reading scenarios of future land use changes affect willingness to participate in land use planning?

Treesearch

Michelle L. Johnson; Kathleen P. Bell; Mario F. Teisl

2016-01-01

Scenarios of future outcomes often provide context for policy decisions and can be a form of science communication, translating complex and uncertain relationships into stories for a broader audience. We conducted a survey experiment (n = 270) to test the effects of reading land use change scenarios on willingness to participate in land use planning activities. In the...

Forecasts of county-level land uses under three future scenarios: a technical document supporting the Forest Service 2010 RPA Assessment

Treesearch

David N. Wear

2011-01-01

Accurately forecasting future forest conditions and the implications for ecosystem services depends on understanding land use dynamics. In support of the 2010 Renewable Resources Planning Act (RPA) Assessment, we forecast changes in land uses for the coterminous United States in response to three scenarios. Our land use models forecast urbanization in response to the...

Defining, Measuring, and Incentivizing Sustainable Land Use to Meet Human Needs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nicholas, K. A.; Brady, M. V.; Olin, S.; Ekroos, J.; Hall, M.; Seaquist, J. W.; Lehsten, V.; Smith, H.

2016-12-01

Land is a natural capital that supports the flow of an enormous amount of ecosystem services critical to human welfare. Sustainable land use, which we define as land use that meets both current and future human needs for ecosystem services, is essential to meet global goals for climate mitigation and sustainable development, while maintaining natural capital. However, it is not clear what governance is needed to achieve sustainable land use under multiple goals (as defined by the values of relevant decision-makers and land managers), particularly under climate change. Here we develop a conceptual model for examining the interactions and tradeoffs among multiple goals, as well as their spatial interactions (teleconnections), in research developed using Design Thinking principles. We have selected five metrics for provisioning (food production, and fiber production for wood and energy), regulating and maintenance (climate mitigation and biodiversity conservation), and cultural (heritage) ecosystem services. Using the case of Sweden, we estimate indicators for these metrics using a combination of existing data synthesis and process-based simulation modeling. We also develop and analyze new indicators (e.g., combining data on land use, bird conservation status, and habitat specificity to make a predictive model of bird diversity changes on agricultural or forested land). Our results highlight both expected tradeoffs (e.g., between food production and biodiversity conservation) as well as unexpected opportunities for synergies under different land management scenarios and strategies. Our model also provides a practical way to make decision-maker values explicit by comparing both quantity and preferences for bundles of ecosystem services under various scenarios. We hope our model will help in considering competing interests and shaping economic incentives and governance structures to meet national targets in support of global goals for sustainable management of land-based ecosystem services.

Soil quality monitoring: Examples of existing protocols

Treesearch

Daniel G. Neary; Carl C. Trettin; Deborah Page-Dumroese

2010-01-01

Many forestry and agricultural agencies and organizations worldwide have developed soil monitoring and quality standards and guidelines to ensure future sustainability of land management. These soil monitoring standards are typically developed in response to international initiatives such as the Montreal Process, the Helsinki Ministerial Conference,or in support of...

Soil quality monitoring: examples of existing protocols

Treesearch

Daniel G. Neary; Carl C. Trettin; Deborah Page-Dumroese

2010-01-01

Many forestry and agricultural agencies and organizations worldwide have developed soil monitoring and quality standards and guidelines to ensure future sustainability of land management. These soil monitoring standards are typically developed in response to international initiatives such as the Montreal Process, the Helsinki Ministerial Conference, or in support of...

Trend of airplane flight characteristics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Von Koppen, Joachim

1933-01-01

This report describes the development of airplane characteristics since the war and indicates the direction development should take in the immediate future. Some of the major topics include: the behavior of an airplane about its lateral, vertical, and longitudinal axes. Behavior at large angles of attack and landing characteristics are also included.

Land Ecological on Public Transport Infrastructure Development In Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sari, N.

2017-10-01

The development of public transport infrastructure in Indonesia has been growing rapidly since the last five years. The utilization of area as public transport infrastructure, for example bus depot, bus Station and terminal requires wide area and influences many elements, such as land ecological quality, water supplies, power supplies, and environmental balance. However the development of public transport infrastructure now days is less considering on environmental approach, especially for green and catchment area for water conservation (water balance).This paper aims to propose the concept of Public Transport Infrastructure using green concept. The green design concept is using GBCI (Green Building Council Indonesia) standard, which contains seven categories: land ecological enhancement, movement and connectivity, water management and conservation, solid waste and material, community wellbeing strategy, building and energy, and also innovation and future development. The result is, by using the GBCI standard for the green design of Public Transport Infrastructure, the land ecological impact could be decreased. The effective areas that required are at least 5000 m2, from which the green areas for public increase 36% and 76% of areas could be used as catchment area for water conservation.

Future scenarios of land-use and land-cover change in the United States--the Marine West Coast Forests Ecoregion

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wilson, Tamara S.; Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Sohl, Terry L.; Griffith, Glenn; Acevedo, William; Bennett, Stacie; Bouchard, Michelle; Reker, Ryan R.; Ryan, Christy; Sayler, Kristi L.; Sleeter, Rachel; Soulard, Christopher E.

2012-01-01

Detecting, quantifying, and projecting historical and future changes in land use and land cover (LULC) has emerged as a core research area for the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). Changes in LULC are important drivers of changes to biogeochemical cycles, the exchange of energy between the Earth’s surface and atmosphere, biodiversity, water quality, and climate change. To quantify the rates of recent historical LULC change, the USGS Land Cover Trends project recently completed a unique ecoregion-based assessment of late 20th century LULC change for the western United States. To characterize present LULC, the USGS and partners have created the National Land Cover Database (NLCD) for the years 1992, 2001, and 2006. Both Land Cover Trends and NLCD projects continue to evolve in an effort to better characterize historical and present LULC conditions and are the foundation of the data presented in this report. Projecting future changes in LULC requires an understanding of the rates and patterns of change, the major driving forces, and the socioeconomic and biophysical determinants and capacities of regions. The data presented in this report is the result of an effort by USGS scientists to downscale the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) to ecoregions of the conterminous United States as part of the USGS Biological Carbon Sequestration Assessment. The USGS biological carbon assessment was mandated by Section 712 of the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007. As part of the legislative mandate, the USGS is required to publish a methodology describing, in detail, the approach to be used for the assessment. The development of future LULC scenarios is described in chapter 3.2 and appendix A. Spatial modeling is described in chapter 3.3.2 and appendix B and in Sohl and others (2011). In this report, we briefly summarize the major components and methods used to downscale IPCC-SRES scenarios to ecoregions of the conterminous United States, followed by a description of the Marine West Coast Forests Ecoregion, and lastly a description of the data being published as part of this report.

Multimedia Modeling System Response to Regional Land Management Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cooter, E. J.

2015-12-01

A multi-media system of nitrogen and co-pollutant models describing critical physical and chemical processes that cascade synergistically and competitively through the environment, the economy and society has been developed at the USEPA Office of Research and Development. It is populated with linked or fully coupled models that address nutrient research questions such as, "How might future policy, climate or land cover change in the Mississippi River Basin affect Nitrogen and Phosphorous loadings to the Gulf of Mexico" or, "What are the management implications of regional-scale land management changes for the sustainability of air, land and water quality?" This second question requires explicit consideration of economic (e.g. sector prices) and societal (e.g. land management) factors. Metrics that illustrate biosphere-atmosphere interactions such as atmospheric PM2.5 concentrations, atmospheric N loading to surface water, soil organic N and N percolation to groundwater are calculated. An example application has been completed that is driven by a coupled agricultural and energy sector model scenario. The economic scenario assumes that by 2022 there is: 1) no detectable change in weather patterns relative to 2002; 2) a concentration of stover processing facilities in the Upper Midwest; 3) increasing offshore Pacific and Atlantic marine transportation; and 4) increasing corn, soybean and wheat production that meets future demand for food, feed and energy feedstocks. This production goal is reached without adding or removing agricultural land area whose extent is defined by the National Land Cover Dataset (NLCD) 2002v2011 classes 81 and 82. This goal does require, however, crop shifts and agricultural management changes. The multi-media system response over our U.S. 12km rectangular grid resolution analysis suggests that there are regions of potential environmental and health costs, as well as large areas that could experience unanticipated environmental and health benefits. Alternative land management that may reduce multimedia environmental costs and enhance benefits will be discussed.

Analysis of the barriers to renewable energy development on tribal lands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, Thomas Elisha

Native American lands have significant renewable energy resource potential that could serve to ensure energy security and a low carbon energy future for the benefit of tribes as well as the United States. Economic and energy development needs in Native American communities match the energy potential. A disproportionate amount of Native American households have no access to electricity, which is correlated with high poverty and unemployment rates. Despite the vast resources and need for energy, the potential for renewable energy development has not fully materialized. This research explores this subject through three separate articles: 1) a case study of the Navajo Nation that suggests economic viability is not the only significant factor for low adoption of renewable energy on Navajo lands; 2) an expert elicitation of tribal renewable energy experts of what they view as barriers to renewable energy development on tribal lands; and 3) a reevaluation of Native Nation Building Theory to include external forces and the role that inter-tribal collaboration plays with renewable energy development by Native nations. Major findings from this research suggests that 1) many Native nations lack the technical and legal capacity to develop renewable energy; 2) inter-tribal collaboration can provide opportunities for sharing resources and building technical, legal, and political capacity; and 3) financing and funding remains a considerable barrier to renewable energy development on tribal lands.

Future water demand in California under a broad range of land use scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, T. S.; Sleeter, B. M.; Cameron, D. R.

2016-12-01

California continues to be gripped by the most severe drought on record. Most general circulation models agree the state will continue to warm this century and research suggests persistent, long-term droughts may become the new normal, exacerbating an already uncertain water supply future. Population increases and agricultural intensification will likely stress existing, highly variable inter-annual water supplies even further in coming decades. Using the Land Use and Carbon Scenario Simulator (LUCAS) model, we explore a wide range of potential water demand futures from 2012 to 2062 based on 8 alternative, spatially-explicit (1 km) land use scenarios and land-use related water demand. Scenarios include low and high rates for urbanization, agricultural expansion, and agricultural contraction as well as lowest and highest rates for the combined suite of anthropogenic land uses. Land change values were sampled from county-level historical (1991-2012) land change data and county-level average water use data for urban areas (i.e. municipal and industrial) and annual and perennial cropland. We modeled 100 Monte Carlo simulations for each scenario to better characterize and capture model uncertainty and a range of potential future outcomes. Results show water demand in Mediterranean California was lowest in the low anthropogenic change scenario, dropping an average 2.7 million acre feet (MAF) by 2062. The highest water demand was seen in the high urbanization (+3.2 MAF), high agricultural expansion (+4.1 MAF), and the high anthropogenic (+4.3 MAF) scenarios. Results provide water managers and policy makers with information on diverging land use and water use futures, based on observed land change and water use trends, helping better inform land and resource management decisions.

A Tool for Creating Regionally Calibrated High-Resolution Land Cover Data Sets for the West African Sahel: Using Machine Learning to Scale Up Hand-Classified Maps in a Data-Sparse Environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van Gordon, M.; Van Gordon, S.; Min, A.; Sullivan, J.; Weiner, Z.; Tappan, G. G.

2017-12-01

Using support vector machine (SVM) learning and high-accuracy hand-classified maps, we have developed a publicly available land cover classification tool for the West African Sahel. Our classifier produces high-resolution and regionally calibrated land cover maps for the Sahel, representing a significant contribution to the data available for this region. Global land cover products are unreliable for the Sahel, and accurate land cover data for the region are sparse. To address this gap, the U.S. Geological Survey and the Regional Center for Agriculture, Hydrology and Meteorology (AGRHYMET) in Niger produced high-quality land cover maps for the region via hand-classification of Landsat images. This method produces highly accurate maps, but the time and labor required constrain the spatial and temporal resolution of the data products. By using these hand-classified maps alongside SVM techniques, we successfully increase the resolution of the land cover maps by 1-2 orders of magnitude, from 2km-decadal resolution to 30m-annual resolution. These high-resolution regionally calibrated land cover datasets, along with the classifier we developed to produce them, lay the foundation for major advances in studies of land surface processes in the region. These datasets will provide more accurate inputs for food security modeling, hydrologic modeling, analyses of land cover change and climate change adaptation efforts. The land cover classification tool we have developed will be publicly available for use in creating additional West Africa land cover datasets with future remote sensing data and can be adapted for use in other parts of the world.

Preliminary Analysis of the efficacy of Artificial neural Network (ANN) and Cellular Automaton (CA) based Land Use Models in Urban Land-Use Planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harun, R.

2013-05-01

This research provides an opportunity of collaboration between urban planners and modellers by providing a clear theoretical foundations on the two most widely used urban land use models, and assessing the effectiveness of applying the models in urban planning context. Understanding urban land cover change is an essential element for sustainable urban development as it affects ecological functioning in urban ecosystem. Rapid urbanization due to growing inclination of people to settle in urban areas has increased the complexities in predicting that at what shape and size cities will grow. The dynamic changes in the spatial pattern of urban landscapes has exposed the policy makers and environmental scientists to great challenge. But geographic science has grown in symmetry to the advancements in computer science. Models and tools are developed to support urban planning by analyzing the causes and consequences of land use changes and project the future. Of all the different types of land use models available in recent days, it has been found by researchers that the most frequently used models are Cellular Automaton (CA) and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) models. But studies have demonstrated that the existing land use models have not been able to meet the needs of planners and policy makers. There are two primary causes identified behind this prologue. First, there is inadequate understanding of the fundamental theories and application of the models in urban planning context i.e., there is a gap in communication between modellers and urban planners. Second, the existing models exclude many key drivers in the process of simplification of the complex urban system that guide urban spatial pattern. Thus the models end up being effective in assessing the impacts of certain land use policies, but cannot contribute in new policy formulation. This paper is an attempt to increase the knowledge base of planners on the most frequently used land use model and also assess the relative effectiveness of the two models, ANN and CA, in urban planning. The questions that are addressed in this research are: a) What makes ANN models different from CA models?; b) Which model has higher accuracy in predicting future urban land use change?; and c) Are the models effective enough in guiding urban land use policies and strategies? The models that are used for this research are Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) and CA model, available in IDRISI Taiga. Since, the objective is to perform a comparative analysis and draw general inferences irrespective of specific urban policies, the availability of data was given more emphasis over the selection of particular location. Urban area in Massachusetts was chosen to conduct the study due to data availability. Extensive literature review was performed to understand the functionality of the two models. The models were applied to predict future changes and the accuracy assessment was performed using standard matrix. Inferences were drawn about the applicability of the models in urban planning context along with recommendations. This research will not only develop understanding of land use models among urban planners, but also will create an environment of coupled research between planners and modellers.

Extraction of land cover change information from ENVISAT-ASAR data in Chengdu Plain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Wenbo; Fan, Jinlong; Huang, Jianxi; Tian, Yichen; Zhang, Yong

2006-10-01

Land cover data are essential to most global change research objectives, including the assessment of current environmental conditions and the simulation of future environmental scenarios that ultimately lead to public policy development. Chinese Academy of Sciences generated a nationwide land cover database in order to carry out the quantification and spatial characterization of land use/cover changes (LUCC) in 1990s. In order to improve the reliability of the database, we will update the database anytime. But it is difficult to obtain remote sensing data to extract land cover change information in large-scale. It is hard to acquire optical remote sensing data in Chengdu plain, so the objective of this research was to evaluate multitemporal ENVISAT advanced synthetic aperture radar (ASAR) data for extracting land cover change information. Based on the fieldwork and the nationwide 1:100000 land cover database, the paper assesses several land cover changes in Chengdu plain, for example: crop to buildings, forest to buildings, and forest to bare land. The results show that ENVISAT ASAR data have great potential for the applications of extracting land cover change information.

The requirements for implementing Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and for planning and implementing Integrated Territorial Investments (ITI) in mining areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Florkowska, Lucyna; Bryt-Nitarska, Izabela

2018-04-01

The notion of Integrated Territorial Investments (ITI) appears more and more frequently in contemporary regional development strategies. Formulating the main assumptions of ITI is a response to a growing need for a co-ordinated, multi-dimensional regional development suitable for the characteristics of a given area. Activities are mainly aimed at improving people's quality of life with their significant participation. These activities include implementing the Sustainable development Goals (SDGs). Territorial investments include, among others, projects in areas where land and building use is governed not only by general regulations (Spatial Planning and Land Development Act) but also by separate legal acts. This issue also concerns areas with active mines and post-mining areas undergoing revitalization. For the areas specified above land development and in particular making building investments is subject to the requirements set forth in the Geological and Mining Law and in the general regulations. In practice this means that factors connected with the present and future mining impacts must be taken into consideration in planning the investment process. This article discusses the role of proper assessment of local geological conditions as well as the current and future mining situation in the context of proper planning and performance of the Integrated Territorial Investment programme and also in the context of implementing the SDGs. It also describes the technical and legislative factors which need to be taken into consideration in areas where mining is planned or where it took place in the past.

A multitemporal (1979-2009) land-use/land-cover dataset of the binational Santa Cruz Watershed

USGS Publications Warehouse

2011-01-01

Trends derived from multitemporal land-cover data can be used to make informed land management decisions and to help managers model future change scenarios. We developed a multitemporal land-use/land-cover dataset for the binational Santa Cruz watershed of southern Arizona, United States, and northern Sonora, Mexico by creating a series of land-cover maps at decadal intervals (1979, 1989, 1999, and 2009) using Landsat Multispectral Scanner and Thematic Mapper data and a classification and regression tree classifier. The classification model exploited phenological changes of different land-cover spectral signatures through the use of biseasonal imagery collected during the (dry) early summer and (wet) late summer following rains from the North American monsoon. Landsat images were corrected to remove atmospheric influences, and the data were converted from raw digital numbers to surface reflectance values. The 14-class land-cover classification scheme is based on the 2001 National Land Cover Database with a focus on "Developed" land-use classes and riverine "Forest" and "Wetlands" cover classes required for specific watershed models. The classification procedure included the creation of several image-derived and topographic variables, including digital elevation model derivatives, image variance, and multitemporal Kauth-Thomas transformations. The accuracy of the land-cover maps was assessed using a random-stratified sampling design, reference aerial photography, and digital imagery. This showed high accuracy results, with kappa values (the statistical measure of agreement between map and reference data) ranging from 0.80 to 0.85.

Modeling the hydrologic effects of land and water development interventions: a case study of the upper Blue Nile river basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haregeweyn, Nigussie; Tsunekawa, Atsushi; Tsubo, Mitsuru; Meshesha, Derege; Adgo, Enyew; Poesen, Jean; Schütt, Brigitta

2014-05-01

Over 67% of the Ethiopian landmass has been identified as very vulnerable to climate variability and land degradation. These problems are more prevalent in the Upper Blue Nile (UBN, often called Abay) river basin covering a drainage area of about 199,800 km2. The UBN River runs from Lake Tana (NW Ethiopia) to the Ethiopia-Sudan border. To enhance the adaptive capacity to the high climate variability and land degradation in the basin, different land and water management measures (stone/soil bunds, runoff collector trenches, exclosures) have been extensively implemented, especially since recent years. Moreover, multipurpose water harvesting schemes including the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD, reservoir area of ca. 4000 km2) and 17 other similar projects are being or to be implemented by 2025. However, impact studies on land and water management aspects rarely include detailed hydrological components especially at river basin scale, although it is generally regarded as a major determinant of hydrological processes. The main aim of this study is therefore to model the significance of land and water management interventions in surface runoff response at scale of UBN river basin and to suggest some recommendations. Spatially-distributed annual surface runoff was simulated for both present-day and future (2025) land and water management conditions using calibrated values of the proportional loss model in ArcGIS environment. Average annual rainfall map (1998-2012) was produced from calibrated TRMM satellite source and shows high spatial variability of rainfall ranging between ca. 1000 mm in the Eastern part of the basin to ca. 2000 mm in the southern part of the basin. Present-day land use day condition was obtained from Abay Basin Master Plan study. The future land use map was created taking into account the land and water development interventions to be implemented by 2025. Under present-day conditions, high spatial variability of annual runoff depth was observed in the basin ranging from 80 mm in the central part of the basin to over 1700 mm in water bodies. This variation is mainly controlled by variation in surface conditions and areal-extent of each land use type, and rainfall depth. For a specific land use type, runoff depth is found to increase with elevation as this in turn directly influences the rainfall distribution. By 2025, due to the land and water management interventions, total runoff depth in the basin could decrease by up to 40%. Following the conversion of other land use types to water bodies due to the medium to large-scale water harvesting schemes such as GERD reservoir, runoff response in those specific parts of the basin could increase by over 200%. Sub-basins have been prioritized for future land and water management interventions. Further study remains necessary to understand the downstream impacts of those interventions on runoff and sediment discharges. Keywords: Land and water management; Upper Blue Nile; Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam; Spatial variability of runoff; Downstream impact.

A landscape-scale study of land use and parent material effects on soil organic carbon and total nitrogen in the Konya Basin, Turkey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mayes, M. T.; Marin-Spiotta, E.; Ozdogan, M.; Erdogan, M. A.

2011-12-01

In ecosystems where intensive farming and grazing have been occurring for millennia, there is poor understanding of how present-day soil biogeochemical properties relate to factors associated with soil parent materials (e.g. texture, mineralogy), and the net effects of long-term land use practices. Soil organic carbon (SOC) and total soil nitrogen (TN) are important for their roles in maintaining soil structure, moisture, fertility and contributing to carbon sequestration. Our research used a state factor approach (Jenny 1981) to study effects of soil parent materials and land use practices on SOC, TN, and other properties across thirty-five sites in the Konya Basin, an arid region in south-central Turkey farmed and grazed for over 8,000 years. This project is one of the first to study land use impacts on soils at a landscape scale (500 km2) in south-central Turkey, and incorporate geospatial data (e.g. a satellite imagery-derived land cover map we developed) to aid selection of field sites. Focusing on the plough layer (0-25cm) in two depth intervals, we compared effects of agriculture, orchard cultivation and grazing land use practices and clay-loam alluvial, sandy-loam volcanic and lacustrine clay soils on soil properties using standard least squares regression analyses. SOC and TN depended strongly on parent materials, but not on land use. Averaged across both depth intervals, alluvial soil SOC and TN concentrations (19.4 ± 1.32 Mg/ha SOC, 2.86 ± 1.23 Mg/ha TN) were higher and significantly different than lacustrine (9.72 ± 3.01 Mg/ha SOC, 1.57 ± 0.69 Mg/ha TN) and volcanic soil concentrations (7.40 ± 1.72 Mg/ha SOC, 1.02 ± 0.35 Mg/ha TN). Land use significantly affected SOC and TN on alluvial soils, but not on volcanic or lacustrine soils. Our results demonstrate the potential for land use to have different effects on different soils in this region. Our data on SOC, TN and other soil properties illustrate patterns in regional SOC and TN variability not shown by previous modeling or soil survey efforts. We provide baseline information on SOC and TN that can inform benchmarks for future soil monitoring and land use planning in an arid region that is likely to be highly impacted by future climatic changes, agricultural intensification and urban development. Our results suggest the importance of accounting for soil physical properties, and land use effects that are dependent on soil parent materials in future efforts to model or account for SOC and TN in similar ancient agricultural landscapes.

Cadastre (forest maps) and spatial land uses planning, strategic tool for sustainable development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Drosos, Vasileios C.

2014-08-01

The rise in the living standards of the Greeks created, especially since 1970, along with other needs and the need for second or holiday home since 1990 after finding the first house on the outskirts of large urban centers. Trying to find land for the creation of new resorts or new type of permanent residences (maisonettes with or without garden, depending on the financial position of each) had the painful consequence of wasteful and uncontrolled use of land, without a program, without the fundamental rules of land planning and the final creation was usually unsightly buildings. The costs were to pay as usually the forest rural lands. The national spatial planning of land use requires that we know the existing land uses in this country, and based on that we can design and decide their land uses on the future in a rational way. On final practical level, this planning leads to mark the boundaries of specific areas of land that are permitted and may change uses. For this reason, one of the most valuable "tools" of that final marking the boundaries is also the forest maps. The paper aims the investigation to determine the modern views on the issues of Cadastre and Land Management with an ulterior view to placing the bases for creating a building plan of an immediate completion of forest maps. Sustainable development as a term denoting a policy of continued economic and social development that does not involve the destruction of the environment and natural resources, but rather guarantees their rational viability.

Deforestation scenarios for the Bolivian lowlands.

PubMed

Tejada, Graciela; Dalla-Nora, Eloi; Cordoba, Diana; Lafortezza, Raffaele; Ovando, Alex; Assis, Talita; Aguiar, Ana Paula

2016-01-01

Tropical forests in South America play a key role in the provision of ecosystem services such as carbon sinks, biodiversity conservation, and global climate regulation. In previous decades, Bolivian forests have mainly been deforested by the expansion of agricultural frontier development, driven by the growing demands for beef and other productions. In the mid-2000s the Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS) party rose to power in Bolivia with the promise of promoting an alternative development model that would respect the environment. The party passed the world's first laws granting rights to the environment, which they termed Mother Earth (Law No. 300 of 2012), and proposed an innovative framework that was expected to develop radical new conservation policies. The MAS conservationist discourse, policies, and productive practices, however, have since been in permanent tension. The government continues to guarantee food production through neo-extractivist methods by promoting the notion to expand agriculture from 3 to 13 million ha, risking the tropical forests and their ecosystem services. These actions raise major environmental and social concerns, as the potential impacts of such interventions are still unknown. The objective of this study is to explore an innovative land use modeling approach to simulate how the growing demand for land could affect future deforestation trends in Bolivia. We use the LuccME framework to create a spatially-explicit land cover change model and run it under three different deforestation scenarios, spanning from the present-2050. In the Sustainability scenario, deforestation reaches 17,703,786 ha, notably in previously deforested or degraded areas, while leaving forest extensions intact. In the Middle of the road scenario, deforestation and degradation move toward new or paved roads spreading across 25,698,327 ha in 2050, while intact forests are located in Protected Areas (PAs). In the Fragmentation scenario, deforestation expands to almost all Bolivian lowlands reaching 37,944,434 ha and leaves small forest patches in a few PAs. These deforestation scenarios are not meant to predict the future but to show how current and future decisions carried out by the neo-extractivist practices of MAS government could affect deforestation and carbon emission trends. In this perspective, recognizing land use systems as open and dynamic systems is a central challenge in designing efficient land use policies and managing a transition towards sustainable land use. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Evaluating the impacts of climate and land-use change on the hydrology and nutrient yield in a transboundary river basin: A case study in the 3S River Basin (Sekong, Sesan, and Srepok).

PubMed

Trang, Nguyen Thi Thuy; Shrestha, Sangam; Shrestha, Manish; Datta, Avishek; Kawasaki, Akiyuki

2017-01-15

Assessment of the climate and land-use change impacts on the hydrology and water quality of a river basin is important for the development and management of water resources in the future. The objective of this study was to examine the impact of climate and land-use change on the hydrological regime and nutrient yield from the 3S River Basin (Sekong, Srepok, and Sesan) into the 3S River system in Southeast Asia. The 3S Rivers are important tributaries of the Lower Mekong River, accounting for 16% of its annual flow. This transboundary basin supports the livelihoods of nearly 3.5 million people in the countries of Laos, Vietnam, and Cambodia. To reach a better understanding of the process and fate of pollution (nutrient yield) as well as the hydrological regime, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to simulate water quality and discharge in the 3S River Basin. Future scenarios were developed for three future periods: 2030s (2015-2039), 2060s (2045-2069), and 2090s (2075-2099), using an ensemble of five GCMs (General Circulation Model) simulations: (HadGEM2-AO, CanESM2, IPSL-CM5A-LR, CNRM-CM5, and MPI-ESM-MR), driven by the climate projection for RCPs (Representative Concentration Pathways): RCP4.5 (medium emission) and RCP8.5 (high emission) scenarios, and two land-use change scenarios. The results indicated that the climate in the study area would generally become warmer and wetter under both emission scenarios. Discharge and nutrient yield is predicted to increase in the wet season and decrease in the dry. Overall, the annual discharge and nutrient yield is projected to increase throughout the twenty-first century, suggesting sensitivity in the 3S River Basin to climate and land-use change. The results of this study can assist water resources managers and planners in developing water management strategies for uncertain climate change scenarios in the 3S River Basin. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The future of housing in the United States: an econometric model of long-term predictions for the 2000 RPA timber assessment.

Treesearch

Claire A. Montgomery

2001-01-01

This report presents historical trends and future projections of forest, agricultural, and urban and other land uses for the South-Central United States. A land use share model is used to investigate the relation between the areas of land in alternative uses and economic and demographic factors influencing land use decisions. Two different versions of the empirical...

What Will the Western Wildlands Be Like in the Year 2000...Future Perfect or Future Imperfect?

Treesearch

Carol L. Rice

1987-01-01

Profound changes have taken place in the western wildlands during the 20th century that will have great impact on land management policy and operations. Wildlands are being developed. Reduction of fire has altered plant species relationships in terms of dominance and density. The number of ignitions will continue to increase. The trends unchanged will result in greater...

Regional differences of urbanization in the conterminous U.S. on upland forest land cover, 1973-2011

USGS Publications Warehouse

Auch, Roger F.; Drummond, Mark A.; Xian, George Z.; Sayler, Kristi L.; Acevedo, William; Taylor, Janis

2016-01-01

In this U.S. Geological Survey study of forest land cover across the conterminous U.S. (CONUS), specific proportions and rates of forest conversion to developed (urban) land were assessed on an ecoregional basis. The study period was divided into six time intervals between 1973 and 2011. Forest land cover was the source of 40% or more of the new urban land in 35 of the 84 ecoregions located within the CONUS. In 11 of these ecoregions this threshold exceeded in every time interval. When the percent of change, forest to urban, was compared to the percent of forest in each ecoregion, 58 ecoregions had a greater percent of change and, in six of those, change occurred in every time interval. Annual rates of forest to urban land cover change of 0.2% or higher occurred in 12 ecoregions at least once and in one ecoregion in all intervals. There were three ecoregions where the above conditions were met for nearly every time interval. Even though only a small number of the ecoregions were heavily impacted by forest loss to urban development within the CONUS, the ecosystem services provided by undeveloped forest land cover need to be quantified more completely to better inform future regional land management.

Energy Sprawl Is the Largest Driver of Land Use Change in United States.

PubMed

Trainor, Anne M; McDonald, Robert I; Fargione, Joseph

2016-01-01

Energy production in the United States for domestic use and export is predicted to rise 27% by 2040. We quantify projected energy sprawl (new land required for energy production) in the United States through 2040. Over 200,000 km2 of additional land area will be directly impacted by energy development. When spacing requirements are included, over 800,000 km2 of additional land area will be affected by energy development, an area greater than the size of Texas. This pace of development in the United States is more than double the historic rate of urban and residential development, which has been the greatest driver of conversion in the United States since 1970, and is higher than projections for future land use change from residential development or agriculture. New technology now places 1.3 million km2 that had not previously experienced oil and gas development at risk of development for unconventional oil and gas. Renewable energy production can be sustained indefinitely on the same land base, while extractive energy must continually drill and mine new areas to sustain production. We calculated the number of years required for fossil energy production to expand to cover the same area as renewables, if both were to produce the same amount of energy each year. The land required for coal production would grow to equal or exceed that of wind, solar and geothermal energy within 2-31 years. In contrast, it would take hundreds of years for oil production to have the same energy sprawl as biofuels. Meeting energy demands while conserving nature will require increased energy conservation, in addition to distributed renewable energy and appropriate siting and mitigation.

Energy Sprawl Is the Largest Driver of Land Use Change in United States

PubMed Central

McDonald, Robert I.

2016-01-01

Energy production in the United States for domestic use and export is predicted to rise 27% by 2040. We quantify projected energy sprawl (new land required for energy production) in the United States through 2040. Over 200,000 km2 of additional land area will be directly impacted by energy development. When spacing requirements are included, over 800,000 km2 of additional land area will be affected by energy development, an area greater than the size of Texas. This pace of development in the United States is more than double the historic rate of urban and residential development, which has been the greatest driver of conversion in the United States since 1970, and is higher than projections for future land use change from residential development or agriculture. New technology now places 1.3 million km2 that had not previously experienced oil and gas development at risk of development for unconventional oil and gas. Renewable energy production can be sustained indefinitely on the same land base, while extractive energy must continually drill and mine new areas to sustain production. We calculated the number of years required for fossil energy production to expand to cover the same area as renewables, if both were to produce the same amount of energy each year. The land required for coal production would grow to equal or exceed that of wind, solar and geothermal energy within 2–31 years. In contrast, it would take hundreds of years for oil production to have the same energy sprawl as biofuels. Meeting energy demands while conserving nature will require increased energy conservation, in addition to distributed renewable energy and appropriate siting and mitigation. PMID:27607423

A Tool for Assessing Future Capacity Loss Due to Sedimentation in the United States' Reservoirs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pinson, A. O.; Baker, B.; White, K. D.

2017-12-01

Federal reservoirs are critical components of the United States' water supply, flood risk management, hydropower and navigation infrastructure. These reservoirs included capacity for storage loss due to the deposition of sediment by inflowing streams in their original design. However, the actual rate of capacity loss experienced is controlled in part by climate, topography, soils, and land use/land cover, and may vary from the design. To assess the current and future vulnerability of its reservoirs to sedimentation. USACE has developed an online planning tool to identify USACE reservoirs where sedimentation is currently a problem (e.g., sedimentation rate exceeds design sedimentation rate, or zone losses disproportionately affect authorized purposes), and reservoirs where rates are expected to increase significantly in the future. The goal is to be able to prioritize operation and maintenance actions to minimize the effects of reservoir capacity loss on authorized purposes and help maximize reservoir use life.

A satellite data terminal for land mobile use

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sutherland, Colin A.

1990-01-01

Telesat Mobile Incorporated (TMI) has recently introduced the Mobile Data Service (MDS) into Canada. This paper outlines the system design and some key aspects of the detailed design of the Mobile Earth Terminal (MET) developed by Canadian Aeronautics Limited (CAL) for use with the MDS. The technical requirements for the MET are outlined and the equipment architecture is described. The major design considerations for each functional module are then addressed. Environmental conditions unique to the land mobile service are highlighted, along with the measures taken to ensure satisfactory operation and survival of the MET. Finally, the probable direction of future developments is indicated.

Increased Wildfire Risk Driven by Climate and Development Interactions in the Bolivian Chiquitania, Southern Amazonia.

PubMed

Devisscher, Tahia; Anderson, Liana O; Aragão, Luiz E O C; Galván, Luis; Malhi, Yadvinder

2016-01-01

Wildfires are becoming increasingly dominant in tropical landscapes due to reinforcing feedbacks between land cover change and more severe dry conditions. This study focused on the Bolivian Chiquitania, a region located at the southern edge of Amazonia. The extensive, unique and well-conserved tropical dry forest in this region is susceptible to wildfires due to a marked seasonality. We used a novel approach to assess fire risk at the regional level driven by different development trajectories interacting with changing climatic conditions. Possible future risk scenarios were simulated using maximum entropy modelling with presence-only data, combining land cover, anthropogenic and climatic variables. We found that important determinants of fire risk in the region are distance to roads, recent deforestation and density of human settlements. Severely dry conditions alone increased the area of high fire risk by 69%, affecting all categories of land use and land cover. Interactions between extreme dry conditions and rapid frontier expansion further increased fire risk, resulting in potential biomass loss of 2.44±0.8 Tg in high risk area, about 1.8 times higher than the estimates for the 2010 drought. These interactions showed particularly high fire risk in land used for 'extensive cattle ranching', 'agro-silvopastoral use' and 'intensive cattle ranching and agriculture'. These findings have serious implications for subsistence activities and the economy in the Chiquitania, which greatly depend on the forestry, agriculture and livestock sectors. Results are particularly concerning if considering the current development policies promoting frontier expansion. Departmental protected areas inhibited wildfires when strategically established in areas of high risk, even under drought conditions. However, further research is needed to assess their effectiveness accounting for more specific contextual factors. This novel and simple modelling approach can inform fire and land management decisions in the Chiquitania and other tropical forest landscapes to better anticipate and manage large wildfires in the future.

Increased Wildfire Risk Driven by Climate and Development Interactions in the Bolivian Chiquitania, Southern Amazonia

PubMed Central

Devisscher, Tahia; Anderson, Liana O.; Aragão, Luiz E. O. C.; Galván, Luis; Malhi, Yadvinder

2016-01-01

Wildfires are becoming increasingly dominant in tropical landscapes due to reinforcing feedbacks between land cover change and more severe dry conditions. This study focused on the Bolivian Chiquitania, a region located at the southern edge of Amazonia. The extensive, unique and well-conserved tropical dry forest in this region is susceptible to wildfires due to a marked seasonality. We used a novel approach to assess fire risk at the regional level driven by different development trajectories interacting with changing climatic conditions. Possible future risk scenarios were simulated using maximum entropy modelling with presence-only data, combining land cover, anthropogenic and climatic variables. We found that important determinants of fire risk in the region are distance to roads, recent deforestation and density of human settlements. Severely dry conditions alone increased the area of high fire risk by 69%, affecting all categories of land use and land cover. Interactions between extreme dry conditions and rapid frontier expansion further increased fire risk, resulting in potential biomass loss of 2.44±0.8 Tg in high risk area, about 1.8 times higher than the estimates for the 2010 drought. These interactions showed particularly high fire risk in land used for ‘extensive cattle ranching’, ‘agro-silvopastoral use’ and ‘intensive cattle ranching and agriculture’. These findings have serious implications for subsistence activities and the economy in the Chiquitania, which greatly depend on the forestry, agriculture and livestock sectors. Results are particularly concerning if considering the current development policies promoting frontier expansion. Departmental protected areas inhibited wildfires when strategically established in areas of high risk, even under drought conditions. However, further research is needed to assess their effectiveness accounting for more specific contextual factors. This novel and simple modelling approach can inform fire and land management decisions in the Chiquitania and other tropical forest landscapes to better anticipate and manage large wildfires in the future. PMID:27632528

Modelling and analyzing the watershed dynamics using Cellular Automata (CA)-Markov model - A geo-information based approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Behera, Mukunda D.; Borate, Santosh N.; Panda, Sudhindra N.; Behera, Priti R.; Roy, Partha S.

2012-08-01

Improper practices of land use and land cover (LULC) including deforestation, expansion of agriculture and infrastructure development are deteriorating watershed conditions. Here, we have utilized remote sensing and GIS tools to study LULC dynamics using Cellular Automata (CA)-Markov model and predicted the future LULC scenario, in terms of magnitude and direction, based on past trend in a hydrological unit, Choudwar watershed, India. By analyzing the LULC pattern during 1972, 1990, 1999 and 2005 using satellite-derived maps, we observed that the biophysical and socio-economic drivers including residential/industrial development, road-rail and settlement proximity have influenced the spatial pattern of the watershed LULC, leading to an accretive linear growth of agricultural and settlement areas. The annual rate of increase from 1972 to 2004 in agriculture land, settlement was observed to be 181.96, 9.89 ha/year, respectively, while decrease in forest, wetland and marshy land were 91.22, 27.56 and 39.52 ha/year, respectively. Transition probability and transition area matrix derived using inputs of (i) residential/industrial development and (ii) proximity to transportation network as the major causes. The predicted LULC scenario for the year 2014, with reasonably good accuracy would provide useful inputs to the LULC planners for effective management of the watershed. The study is a maiden attempt that revealed agricultural expansion is the main driving force for loss of forest, wetland and marshy land in the Choudwar watershed and has the potential to continue in future. The forest in lower slopes has been converted to agricultural land and may soon take a call on forests occurring on higher slopes. Our study utilizes three time period changes to better account for the trend and the modelling exercise; thereby advocates for better agricultural practices with additional energy subsidy to arrest further forest loss and LULC alternations.

Complex forest dynamics indicate potential for slowing carbon accumulation in the southeastern United States

PubMed Central

Coulston, John W.; Wear, David N.; Vose, James M.

2015-01-01

Over the past century forest regrowth in Europe and North America expanded forest carbon (C) sinks and offset C emissions but future C accumulation is uncertain. Policy makers need insights into forest C dynamics as they anticipate emissions futures and goals. We used land use and forest inventory data to estimate how forest C dynamics have changed in the southeastern United States and attribute changes to land use, management, and disturbance causes. From 2007-2012, forests yielded a net sink of C because of net land use change (+6.48 Tg C yr−1) and net biomass accumulation (+75.4 Tg C yr−1). Forests disturbed by weather, insect/disease, and fire show dampened yet positive forest C changes (+1.56, +1.4, +5.48 Tg C yr−1, respectively). Forest cutting caused net decreases in C (−76.7 Tg C yr−1) but was offset by forest growth (+143.77 Tg C yr−1). Forest growth rates depend on age or stage of development and projected C stock changes indicate a gradual slowing of carbon accumulation with anticipated forest aging (a reduction of 9.5% over the next five years). Additionally, small shifts in land use transitions consistent with economic futures resulted in a 40.6% decrease in C accumulation. PMID:25614123

Ecosystem management can mitigate vegetation shifts induced by climate change in African savannas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scheiter, Simon; Savadogo, Patrice

2017-04-01

The welfare of people in the tropics and sub-tropics strongly depends on goods and services that ecosystems supply. Flows of these ecosystem services are strongly influenced by interactions between climate change and land use. A prominent example are savannas, covering approximately 20% of the Earth's land surface. Key ecosystem services in these areas are fuel wood for cooking and heating, food production and livestock. Changes in the structure and dynamics of savanna vegetation may strongly influence local people's living conditions, as well as the climate system and biogeochemical cycles. We used a dynamic vegetation model to explore interactive effects of climate and land use on the vegetation structure, distribution and carbon cycling of African savannas under current and future conditions. More specifically, we simulate long term impacts of fire management, grazing and fuel wood harvesting. The model projects that under future climate without human land use impacts, large savanna areas would shift towards more wood dominated vegetation due to CO2 fertilization effects and changes in water use efficiency. However, land use activities can mitigate climate change impacts on vegetation to maintain desired ecosystem states that ensure fluxes of important ecosystem services. We then use optimization algorithms to identify sustainable land use strategies that maximize the utility of people managing savannas while preserving a stable vegetation state. Our results highlight that the development of land use policy for tropical and sub-tropical areas needs to account for climate change impacts on vegetation.

Assessment of changes in nutrient and sediment delivery to and carbon accumulation in coastal oceans of the Eastern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bergamaschi, B. A.; Smith, R. A.; Shih, J. S.; Sohl, T. L.; Sleeter, B. M.; Zhu, Z.

2014-12-01

Land-use and land-cover distributions are primary determinants of terrestrial fluxes of sediments and nutrients to coastal oceans. Sediment and nutrient delivery to coastal waters have already been significantly altered by changes in population and land use, resulting in modified patterns of coastal production and carbon storage. Continued population growth and increasing agricultural areal extent and intensity are expected to accelerate these changes. The USGS LandCarbon project developed prospective future land use and land cover projections based on IPCC scenarios A1b, A2 and B1 to 2050 as the basis for a multitude of biogeochemical assessments. We assessed the impacts on delivery of nutrients and sediments to the coastal ocean, and concomitant carbon storage. Fluxes were estimated using the SPARROW model, calibrated on historical water quality measurements. Significantly greater fluxes of nutrients and sediments to coastal waters by 2050 are projected by the model. For example, for the Eastern United States, nitrate fluxes for 2050 are projected to be16 to 52 percent higher than the baseline year, depending on scenario. As a consequence, an associated increase in the frequency and duration of coastal and estuarine hypoxia events and harmful algal blooms could be expected. Model estimates indicate that these prospective future nutrient and sediment fluxes will increase carbon storage rates in coastal waters by 18 to 56 percent in some regions.

Collaborative socioeconomic tool development to address management and planning needs

USGS Publications Warehouse

Richardson, Leslie A.; Huber, Christopher; Cullinane Thomas, Catherine; Donovan, Elizabeth; Koontz, Lynne M.

2014-01-01

Public lands and resources managed by the National Park Service (NPS) and other land management agencies provide a wide range of social and economic benefits to both nearby local communities and society as a whole, ranging from job creation, to access to unique recreational opportunities, to subsistence and tribal uses of the land. Over the years, there has been an increased need to identify and analyze the socioeconomic effects of the public’s use of NPS lands and resources, and the wide range of NPS land management decisions. This need stems from laws such as the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA), increased litigation and appeals on NPS management decisions, as well as an overall need to demonstrate how parks benefit communities and the American public. To address these needs, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and NPS have an ongoing partnership to collaboratively develop socioeconomic tools to support planning needs and resource management. This article discusses two such tools. The first, Assessing Socioeconomic Planning Needs (ASPN), was developed to help NPS planners and managers identify key social and economic issues that can arise as a result of land management actions. The second tool, the Visitor Spending Effects (VSE) model, provides a specific example of a type of analysis that may be recommended by ASPN. The remainder of this article discusses the development, main features, and plans for future versions and applications of both ASPN and the VSE.

Succeeding criteria of community based on land transportation infrastructure for Johor innovation valley development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Redzuan, Amir A.; Aminudin, Eeydzah; Zakaria, Rozana; Ghazali, Farid Ezanee Mohamed; Baharudin, Nur Azwa Amyra; Siang, Lee Yong

2017-10-01

Developing countries around the world have developed innovative centre, or known as innovation hub, to meet the demand of today's changing global competitive environment. The shift of economic sector from manufacturing to services has allowed numerous regions and cities around the world to undergo major structural changes. In Malaysia, Skudai area is on its way of becoming a community-based innovation hub under the Johor State Economic Growth Strategic Plan called Johor Innovation Valley (JIV). Towards this new-city concept, land transportation infrastructure is among the most important network in being a linkage to the source of contribution in enhancing the local innovative environment. This paper highlights the requirement of land transportation infrastructure criteria that would be effective in making Skudai a community-based innovation hub. Data were collected through survey questionnaires involving stakeholders with the knowledge of land transportation infrastructure who also lives within the area. Descriptive analysis was employed with further rank breakdown using Average Index analysis. The findings distinguish the differences between each criteria of land transportation infrastructure. Change in traffic system, easier accessibility to one place to another and attraction to outside investor are among the impacts of growth of JIV. This paper concluded that selected requirement of land transportation infrastructure criteria is necessary for future contribution towards the growth of the JIV.

Can We Power Future Mars Missions?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Balint, Tibor S.; Sturm, Erick J., II; Woolley, Ryan C.; Jordan, James F.

2006-01-01

The Vision for Space Exploration identified the exploration of Mars as one of the key pathways. In response, NASAs Mars Program Office is developing a detailed mission lineup for the next decade that would lead to future explorations. Mission architectures for the next decade include both orbiters and landers. Existing power technologies, which could include solar panels, batteries, radioisotope power systems, and in the future fission power, could support these missions. Second and third decade explorations could target human precursor and human in-situ missions, building on increasingly complex architectures. Some of these could use potential feed forward from earlier Constellation missions to the Moon, discussed in the ESAS study. From a potential Mars Sample Return mission to human missions the complexity of the architectures increases, and with it the delivered mass and power requirements also amplify. The delivered mass at Mars mostly depends on the launch vehicle, while the landed mass might be further limited by EDL technologies, including the aeroshell, parachutes, landing platform, and pinpoint landing. The resulting in-situ mass could be further divided into payload elements and suitable supporting power systems. These power systems can range from tens of watts to multi-kilowatts, influenced by mission type, mission configuration, landing location, mission duration, and season. Regardless, the power system design should match the power needs of these surface assets within a given architecture. Consequently, in this paper we will identify potential needs and bounds of delivered mass and architecture dependent power requirements to surface assets that would enable future in-situ exploration of Mars.

Modeling vulnerability of groundwater to pollution under future scenarios of climate change and biofuels-related land use change: a case study in North Dakota, USA.

PubMed

Li, Ruopu; Merchant, James W

2013-03-01

Modeling groundwater vulnerability to pollution is critical for implementing programs to protect groundwater quality. Most groundwater vulnerability modeling has been based on current hydrogeology and land use conditions. However, groundwater vulnerability is strongly dependent on factors such as depth-to-water, recharge and land use conditions that may change in response to future changes in climate and/or socio-economic conditions. In this research, a modeling framework, which employs three sets of models linked within a geographic information system (GIS) environment, was used to evaluate groundwater pollution risks under future climate and land use changes in North Dakota. The results showed that areas with high vulnerability will expand northward and/or northwestward in Eastern North Dakota under different scenarios. GIS-based models that account for future changes in climate and land use can help decision-makers identify potential future threats to groundwater quality and take early steps to protect this critical resource. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Profile of a city: characterizing and classifying urban soils in the city of Ghent

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Delbecque, Nele; Verdoodt, Ann

2017-04-01

Worldwide, urban lands are expanding rapidly. Conversion of agricultural and natural landscapes to urban fabric can strongly influence soil properties through soil sealing, excavation, leveling, contamination, waste disposal and land management. Urban lands, often characterized by intensive use, need to deliver many production, ecological and cultural ecosystem services. To safeguard this natural capital for future generations, an improved understanding of biogeochemical characteristics, processes and functions of urban soils in time and space is essential. Additionally, existing (inter)national soil classification systems, based on the identification of soil genetic horizons, do not always allow a functional classification of urban soils. This research aims (1) to gain insight into urban soils and their properties in the city of Ghent (Belgium), and (2) to develop a procedure to functionally incorporate urban soils into existing (inter)national soil classification systems. Undisturbed soil cores (depth up to 1.25 m) are collected at 15 locations in Ghent with different times since development and land uses. Geotek MSCL-scans are taken to determine magnetic susceptibility and gamma density and to obtain high resolution images. Physico-chemical characterization of the soil cores is performed by means of detailed soil profile descriptions, traditional lab analyses, as well as proximal soil sensing techniques (XRF). The first results of this research will be presented and critically discussed to improve future efforts to characterize, classify and evaluate urban soils and their ecosystem services.

Modeling the Hydro-Climatic Effects of Land Cover / Land Use Changes in the Euphrates and Tigris Basin Under a Changing Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yilmaz, Y.; Sen, O. L.; Turuncoglu, U. U.

2016-12-01

The Southeastern Anatolia Project (SAP) of Turkey is a multidimensional regional development project based on utilizing the waters of Euphrates and Tigris rivers by irrigating vast semi-arid lands and by producing hydroelectric power. Since the beginning of 90s, the irrigation schemes carried out within the scope of SAP have substantially altered the land cover / land use (LCLU) of the region. In this study, the individual and combined effects of anthropogenic LCLU changes through intensification of irrigation and climate change are investigated by use of a state-of-the-art regional climate model (RegCM4). For this purpose, model simulations with three reconstructed LCLU maps and two future climate change scenarios were conducted over a domain at a horizontal resolution of 48 km over Eastern Mediterranean and Black Sea region, and later on nested domain with 12 km resolution over Turkey. As forcing dataset for RegCM4 at the boundaries, a reanalysis data (NNRP) and outputs of a global circulation model (EC-EARTH) have been used. Model performance was assessed by using high resolution gridded CRU (Climatic Research Unit) data for the period between 1991 and 2008. The model suggests that LCLU changes have some effects on surface hydro-climatic variables in the region (e.g., temperatures are 0.4 0C and 0.8 0C cooler while precipitation amounts are more around 3% and 7%, evapotranspiration rates are higher 51% and 114%, specific humidity amounts are more around 8% and 17%, on annual basis, in simulations respectively with current and future land use maps compared to a simulation with pre-SAP land use conditions). The RCP 4.5 scenario simulation with the default land use map shows that precipitation and evapotranspiration amounts will increase in opposition to the simulation results of RCP 8.5 scenario. Preliminary results of the study indicate that current and future LCLU changes will affect the water balance of the basin. The riparian countries (Turkey, Iraq and Syria) have been facing a crucial water sharing problem. Considering the significant water loss through evapotranspiration has potential for shaping the future water resources management and policies in the region. Acknowledgment This study has been supported by TUBITAK (The Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey) under project number 114Y114.

Quantifying the impacts of land surface schemes and dynamic vegetation on the model dependency of projected changes in surface energy and water budgets

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yu, Miao; Wang, Guiling; Chen, Haishan

Assessing and quantifying the uncertainties in projected future changes of energy and water budgets over land surface are important steps toward improving our confidence in climate change projections. In our study, the contribution of land surface models to the inter-GCM variation of projected future changes in land surface energy and water fluxes are assessed based on output from 19 global climate models (GCMs) and offline Community Land Model version 4 (CLM4) simulations driven by meteorological forcing from the 19 GCMs. Similar offline simulations using CLM4 with its dynamic vegetation submodel are also conducted to investigate how dynamic vegetation feedback, amore » process that is being added to more earth system models, may amplify or moderate the intermodel variations of projected future changes. Projected changes are quantified as the difference between the 2081–2100 period from the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) future experiment and the 1981–2000 period from the historical simulation. Under RCP8.5, projected changes in surface water and heat fluxes show a high degree of model dependency across the globe. Although precipitation is very likely to increase in the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, a high degree of model-related uncertainty exists for evapotranspiration, soil water content, and surface runoff, suggesting discrepancy among land surface models (LSMs) in simulating the surface hydrological processes and snow-related processes. Large model-related uncertainties for the surface water budget also exist in the Tropics including southeastern South America and Central Africa. Moreover, these uncertainties would be reduced in the hypothetical scenario of a single near-perfect land surface model being used across all GCMs, suggesting the potential to reduce uncertainties through the use of more consistent approaches toward land surface model development. Under such a scenario, the most significant reduction is likely to be seen in the Northern Hemisphere high latitudes. Including representation of vegetation dynamics is expected to further amplify the model-related uncertainties in projected future changes in surface water and heat fluxes as well as soil moisture content. This is especially the case in the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere (e.g., northwestern North America and central North Asia) where the projected vegetation changes are uncertain and in the Tropics (e.g., the Amazon and Congo Basins) where dense vegetation exists. Finally, findings from this study highlight the importance of improving land surface model parameterizations related to soil and snow processes, as well as the importance of improving the accuracy of dynamic vegetation models.« less

Quantifying the impacts of land surface schemes and dynamic vegetation on the model dependency of projected changes in surface energy and water budgets

DOE PAGES

Yu, Miao; Wang, Guiling; Chen, Haishan

2016-03-01

Assessing and quantifying the uncertainties in projected future changes of energy and water budgets over land surface are important steps toward improving our confidence in climate change projections. In our study, the contribution of land surface models to the inter-GCM variation of projected future changes in land surface energy and water fluxes are assessed based on output from 19 global climate models (GCMs) and offline Community Land Model version 4 (CLM4) simulations driven by meteorological forcing from the 19 GCMs. Similar offline simulations using CLM4 with its dynamic vegetation submodel are also conducted to investigate how dynamic vegetation feedback, amore » process that is being added to more earth system models, may amplify or moderate the intermodel variations of projected future changes. Projected changes are quantified as the difference between the 2081–2100 period from the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) future experiment and the 1981–2000 period from the historical simulation. Under RCP8.5, projected changes in surface water and heat fluxes show a high degree of model dependency across the globe. Although precipitation is very likely to increase in the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, a high degree of model-related uncertainty exists for evapotranspiration, soil water content, and surface runoff, suggesting discrepancy among land surface models (LSMs) in simulating the surface hydrological processes and snow-related processes. Large model-related uncertainties for the surface water budget also exist in the Tropics including southeastern South America and Central Africa. Moreover, these uncertainties would be reduced in the hypothetical scenario of a single near-perfect land surface model being used across all GCMs, suggesting the potential to reduce uncertainties through the use of more consistent approaches toward land surface model development. Under such a scenario, the most significant reduction is likely to be seen in the Northern Hemisphere high latitudes. Including representation of vegetation dynamics is expected to further amplify the model-related uncertainties in projected future changes in surface water and heat fluxes as well as soil moisture content. This is especially the case in the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere (e.g., northwestern North America and central North Asia) where the projected vegetation changes are uncertain and in the Tropics (e.g., the Amazon and Congo Basins) where dense vegetation exists. Finally, findings from this study highlight the importance of improving land surface model parameterizations related to soil and snow processes, as well as the importance of improving the accuracy of dynamic vegetation models.« less

Combining Satellite Data and Models to Assess the Impacts of Urbanization on the Continental US Surface Climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bounoua, L.; Zhang, P.; Imhoff, M.; Santanello, J.; Kumar, S.; Shepherd, M.; Quattrochi, D.; Silva, J.; Rosenzweigh, C.; Gaffin, S.;

ASSESSING THE RELATIVE AND COMBINED IMPACTS OF FUTURE LAND-USE AND CLIMATE CHANGES ON NONPOINT SOURCE POLLUTION

EPA Science Inventory

In this paper, we discuss the potential water quality impacts of future land-use and climate changes. The Little Miami River Basin was used as a case study. It is a predominantly agricultural watershed in southwestern Ohio (U.S.A.) that has experienced land-use modifications. ...

Air quality and future energy system planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sobral Mourao, Zenaida; Konadu, Dennis; Lupton, Rick

2016-04-01

Ambient air pollution has been linked to an increasing number of premature deaths throughout the world. Projected increases in demand for food, energy resources and manufactured products will likely contribute to exacerbate air pollution with an increasing impact on human health, agricultural productivity and climate change. Current events such as tampering emissions tests by VW car manufacturers, failure to comply with EU Air Quality directives and WHO guidelines by many EU countries, the problem of smog in Chinese cities and new industrial emissions regulations represent unique challenges but also opportunities for regulators, local authorities and industry. However current models and practices of energy and resource use do not consider ambient air impacts as an integral part of the planing process. Furthermore the analysis of drivers, sources and impacts of air pollution is often fragmented, difficult to understand and lacks effective visualization tools that bring all of these components together. This work aims to develop a model that links impacts of air quality on human health and ecosystems to current and future developments in the energy system, industrial and agricultural activity and patterns of land use. The model will be added to the ForeseerTM tool, which is an integrated resource analysis platform that has been developed at the University of Cambridge initially with funding from BP and more recently through the EPSRC funded Whole Systems Energy Modeling (WholeSEM) project. The basis of the tool is a set of linked physical models for energy, water and land, including the technologies that are used to transform these resources into final services such as housing, food, transport and household goods. The new air quality model will explore different feedback effects between energy, land and atmospheric systems with the overarching goal of supporting better communication about the drivers of air quality and to incorporate concerns about air quality into energy system planning. Some example applications of this work are: (1) to discover conflicts and synergies between air quality regulations and future developments in the energy system and land use change; (2) to show the drivers of air quality in a given spatial context; (3) to explore effective ways to visualize impacts of different energy, land use and emissions control policies on air quality. An initial test case for the Bay Area in California will be presented, extending the scope of the existing California ForeseerTM tool to identify impacts of different policies within the water-energy-land nexus on local air quality.

Modelling the effects of land use changes on the streamflow of a peri-urban catchment in central Portugal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hävermark, Saga; Santos Ferreira, Carla Sofia; Kalantari, Zahra; Di Baldassarre, Giuliano

2016-04-01

Many river basis around the world are rapidly changing together with societal development. Such developments may involve changes in land use, which in turn affect the surrounding environment in various ways. Since the start of industrialisation, the urban areas have extended worldwide. Urbanization can influence hydrological processes by decreasing evapotranspiration, infiltration and groundwater recharge as well as increasing runoff and overland flow. It is therefore of uttermost importance to understand the relationship between land use and hydrology. Although several studies have been investigating the impacts of urbanization on streamflow over the last decades, less is known on how urbanization affects hydrological processes in peri-urban areas, characterized by a complex mosaic of different land uses. This study aimed to model the impact of land use changes, specifically urbanization and commercial forest plantation, on the hydrological responses of the small Ribeira dos Covões peri-urban catchment (6,2 km2) located in central Portugal. The catchment has undergone rapid land use changes between 1958 and 2012 associated with the conversion of agricultural fields (cover area decreased from 48% to 4%) into woodland and urban areas, which increased from 44% to 56% and from 8% to 40%, respectively. For the study, the fully-distributed, physically-based modelling system MIKE SHE was used. The model was designed to examine both how past land use changes might have affected the streamflow and to investigate the impacts on hydrology of possible future scenarios, including a 50 %, 60 % and 70 % urban cover. To this end, a variety of data including daily rainfall since 1958 and forward, daily potential evapotranspiration from 2009 to 2013, monthly temperature averages from 1971 to 2013, land use for the years 1958, 1973, 1979, 1990, 1995, 2002, 2007 and 2012, streamflow from the hydrological years 2008 to 2013, catchment topography and soil types were used. The model was calibrated for the hydrological years 2008 to 2010 and validated for the three following years using streamflow data. The impact of future land use changes was analysed by investigating the impact of the size and location of the urban areas within the catchment. Modelling results are expected to support the decision making process in planning and developing new urban areas.

A gradient analysis on urban sprawl and urban landscape pattern between 1985 and 2000 in the Pearl River Delta, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dai, Erfu; Wu, Zhuo; Du, Xiaodian

2017-04-01

Urbanization is an irreversible trend worldwide, especially in rapidly developing China. Accelerated urbanization has resulted in rapid urban sprawl and urban landscape pattern changes. Quantifying the spatiotemporal dynamics of urban land use and landscape pattern not only can reveal the characteristics of social transfer and economic development, but also can provide insights into the driving mechanisms of land use changes. In this study, we integrated remote sensing (RS), geographic information system (GIS), landscape metrics, and gradient analysis to quantitatively compare the spatiotemporal dynamics of land use, urban sprawl, and landscape pattern for nine cities in the Pearl River Delta from 1985‒2000. For the whole study region, urbanization was obvious. The results show an increase in urban buildup land and shrinkage of cropland in the Pearl River Delta. However, the nine cities differed greatly in terms of the process and magnitude of urban sprawl for both the spatial and temporal dimensions. This was most evident for the cities of Guangzhou and Shenzhen. Gradient analysis on urban landscape changes could deepen understanding of the stages of urban development and provide a scientific foundation for future urban planning and land management strategies in China.

SMARTE: HELPING COMMUNITIES OVERCOME OBSTACLES TO REVITALIZATION (04/23/07)

EPA Science Inventory

Sustainable Management Approaches and Revitalization Tools - electronic (SMARTe), is an open-source, web-based, decision support system for developing and evaluating future reuse scenarios for potentially contaminated land. SMARTe contains information and analysis tools for all a...

Flight evaluations of several hover control and display combinations for precise blind vertical landings

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schroeder, J. A.; Merrick, V. K.

1990-01-01

Several control and display concepts were evaluated on a variable-stability helicopter prior to future evaluations on a modified Harrier. The control and display concepts had been developed to enable precise hover maneuvers, station keeping, and vertical landings in simulated zero-visibility conditions and had been evaluated extensively in previous piloted simulations. Flight evaluations early in the program revealed several inadequacies in the display drive laws that were later corrected using an alternative design approach that integrated the control and display characteristics with the desired guidance law. While hooded, three pilots performed landing-pad captures followed by vertical landings with attitude-rate, attitude, and translation-velocity-command control systems. The latter control system incorporated a modified version of state-rate-feedback implicit-model following. Precise landing within 2 ft of the desired touchdown point were achieved.

KSC-2014-2645

NASA Image and Video Library

2014-05-21

CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. – From left behind the reporter in the white shirt, Chirold Epp, the Autonomous Landing and Hazard Avoidance Technology, or ALHAT, project manager, Jon Olansen, Morpheus project manager, and Greg Gaddis, Morpheus/ALHAT site director, speak to members of the media near the north end of the Shuttle Landing Facility at NASA's Kennedy Space Center in Florida. Media also viewed Morpheus inside a facility near the landing facility. Project Morpheus tests NASA’s ALHAT and an engine that runs on liquid oxygen and methane, which are green propellants. These new capabilities could be used in future efforts to deliver cargo to planetary surfaces. The landing facility provides the lander with the kind of field necessary for realistic testing, complete with rocks, craters and hazards to avoid. Morpheus’ ALHAT payload allows it to navigate to clear landing sites amidst rocks, craters and other hazards during its descent. Project Morpheus is being managed under the Advanced Exploration Systems, or AES, Division in NASA’s Human Exploration and Operations Mission Directorate. The efforts in AES pioneer new approaches for rapidly developing prototype systems, demonstrating key capabilities and validating operational concepts for future human missions beyond Earth orbit. For more information on Project Morpheus, visit http://morpheuslander.jsc.nasa.gov/. Photo credit: NASA/Frankie Martin

Global Forecasts of Urban Expansion to 2030 and Direct Impacts on Biodiversity and Carbon Pools

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seto, K. C.; Guneralp, B.; Hutyra, L.

2012-12-01

Urban land cover change threatens biodiversity and affects ecosystem productivity through loss of habitat, biomass, and carbon storage. Yet, despite projections that world urban populations will increase to 4.3 billion by 2030, little is known about future locations, magnitudes, and rates of urban expansion. Here we develop the first global probabilistic forecasts of urban land cover change and explore the impacts on biodiversity hotspots and tropical carbon biomass. If current trends in population density continue, then by 2030, urban land cover will expand between 800,000 and 3.3 million km2, representing a doubling to five-fold increase from the global urban land cover in 2000. This would result in considerable loss of habitats in key biodiversity hotspots, including the Guinean forests of West Africa, Tropical Andes, Western Ghats and Sri Lanka. Within the pan-tropics, loss in forest biomass from urban expansion is estimated to be 1.38 PgC (0.05 PgC yr-1), equal to approximately 5% of emissions from tropical land use change. Although urbanization is often considered a local issue, the aggregate global impacts of projected urban expansion will require significant policy changes to affect future growth trajectories to minimize global biodiversity and forest carbon losses.

Quantitative analysis of agricultural land use change in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chou, Jieming; Dong, Wenjie; Wang, Shuyu; Fu, Yuqing

This article reviews the potential impacts of climate change on land use change in China. Crop sown area is used as index to quantitatively analyze the temporal-spatial changes and the utilization of the agricultural land. A new concept is defined as potential multiple cropping index to reflect the potential sowing ability. The impacting mechanism, land use status and its surplus capacity are investigated as well. The main conclusions are as following; During 1949-2010, the agricultural land was the greatest in amount in the middle of China, followed by that in the country's eastern and western regions. The most rapid increase and decrease of agricultural land were observed in Xinjiang and North China respectively, Northwest China and South China is also changed rapid. The variation trend before 1980 differed significantly from that after 1980. Agricultural land was affected by both natural and social factors, such as regional climate and environmental changes, population growth, economic development, and implementation of policies. In this paper, the effects of temperature and urbanization on the coverage of agriculture land are evaluated, and the results show that the urbanization can greatly affects the amount of agriculture land in South China, Northeast China, Xinjiang and Southwest China. From 1980 to 2009, the extent of agricultural land use had increased as the surplus capacity had decreased. Still, large remaining potential space is available, but the future utilization of agricultural land should be carried out with scientific planning and management for the sustainable development.

The sustainable arable land use pattern under the tradeoff of agricultural production, economic development, and ecological protection-an analysis of Dongting Lake basin, China.

PubMed

Yin, Guanyi; Liu, Liming; Jiang, Xilong

2017-11-01

To find a solution regarding sustainable arable land use pattern in the important grain-producing area during the rapid urbanization process, this study combined agricultural production, locational condition, and ecological protection to determine optimal arable land use. Dongting Lake basin, one of the major grain producing areas in China, was chosen as the study area. The analysis of land use transition, the calculation of arable land barycenter, the landscape indices of arable land patches, and the comprehensive evaluation of arable land quality(productivity, economic location, and ecological condition) were adopted in this study. The results showed that (1) in 1990-2000, the arable land increased by 11.77%, and the transformation between arable land and other land use types actively occurred; in 2000-2010, the arable land decreased by 0.71%, and more ecological area (forestland, grassland, and water area) were disturbed and transferred into arable land; (2) urban expansion of the Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan city cluster (the major economy center of this area) induced the northward movement of the arable land barycenter; (3) the landscape fragmentation and decentralization degree of arable land patches increased during 1990-2010; (4) potential high-quality arable land is located in the zonal area around Dongting Lake, which contains the Li County, Linli County, Jinshi County, Taoyuan County, Taojiang County, Ningxiang County, Xiangxiang County, Shaoshan County, Miluo County, and Zhuzhou County. The inferior low-quality arable land is located in the northwestern Wuling mountainous area, the southeastern hilly area, and the densely populated big cities and their surrounding area. In the optimized arable land use pattern, the high-quality land should be intensively used, and the low-quality arable land should be reduced used or prohibitively used. What is more, it is necessary to quit the arable land away from the surrounding area of cities appropriately, in order to allow more space for urban expansion. This study could provide guidance for sustainable arable land use by both satisfying the future agricultural production and the local economic development, which can be used for the other major grain-producing areas in this rapid developing country.

Contaminated land in Colombia: A critical review of current status and future approach for the management of contaminated sites.

PubMed

Arias Espana, Victor Andres; Rodriguez Pinilla, Alfonso R; Bardos, Paul; Naidu, Ravi

2018-03-15

Environmental contaminants can have negative effects on human health and land, air and water resources. Consequently, there have been significant advances in regulation for protecting the environment in developed countries including the development of remediation frameworks and guidelines. On the other hand, fewer studies have been reported on the risks and health effects of contaminants in developing regions and there is scarce information regarding contaminated land assessment and environmental remediation. Colombia is an important emerging economy and has started to take the first steps towards the development of a framework for the management of contaminated sites and there are opportunities for the country to learn from countries with well-established frameworks such as the United States (US) and the United Kingdom (UK) and for international collaboration with organisations such as CRC for Contamination Assessment and Remediation of the Environment (CARE). We review main pollution issues, current status of contaminated land management in Colombia to identify the gaps in policy and regulation. We also review the UK and US contaminated land policies and regulations to identify the elements of those experiences that could support progress in the country. Finally, we propose recommendations (e.g. risk based approach, soil screening criteria, clean-up funding, liability) for Colombia that could support further development and implementation of a more effective contaminated land management framework. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

77 FR 38376 - Request for Public Comment, Raleigh County Memorial Airport, Beckley, WV

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-06-27

... land will be sold and placed in a Conservation Easement, with restriction of no future development. Proposed buyer would be placing the area of request in a conservation easement for wildlife enhancement... needed for airport development as shown on the Airport Layout Plan. Fair Market Value has been determined...

Can Tribes Control Energy Development?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Owens, Nancy J.

1979-01-01

Emphasizing that the Indian future does not have to be bleak if only Indians take greater control over energy development on their lands. Two-thirds of the total Indian population control 33 percent of U.S. low-sulfer, strippable coal; 80 percent of U.S. uranium reserves; and about 10 percent of petroleum and gas reserves. (Author/RTS)

75 FR 52549 - Environmental Impact Statement; Alabama Beach Mouse Draft General Conservation Plan; Fort Morgan...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-08-26

... the ABM GCP is established, property owners who wish to develop low-density residences on the Fort... potentially significant impacts on biological resources, land use, air quality, water quality, water resources... future development could occur within these areas. It is important that suitable habitat be maintained...

Database Development of Land Use Characteristics along Major U.S. Highways

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Xiong, D

2000-06-06

The major objective of the effort reported here is to develop methods to measure transportation land use at the national level (i.e., how much land and what types of lands are used by transportation systems) and to track changes over time. Data for transportation-related land use are important for environmental analysis, climate change studies, transportation-land use interaction research, policy decisions related to urban sprawl, and more. Transportation systems have direct effects on the environment through modification of vegetation, impacts on wildlife habitats, changes in local climate and alternation of drainage patterns (U.S. DOT/BTS, 1996; U.S. DOT/BTS, 1998; U.S. EPA, 1999;more » Maggi, 1994; Verhoef, 1994). However, without accurate and complete land use data, it is extremely difficult to study and evaluate these effects. Transportation systems also induce land use changes. Such indirect effects, while not the subject of this study, may be more significant than the direct land-use impacts of transportation infrastructure. Establishing an inventory of transportation infrastructure and adjacent land use and maintaining the inventory over time is an important first step towards understanding the full range of interactions between transportation and land use. While current and historic land use data are essential for investigating the relationships between transportation and land use, so far, no technological or institutional mechanisms have been established to systematically collect such data at the national level. The lack of long-term planning in land use data acquisition can be a major setback for future research in transportation land use studies. Land use data also play a key role in the understanding of problems related to urban sprawl and in policy decisions in dealing with these problems.« less

Modeling the Spatial Dynamics of Regional Land Use: The CLUE-S Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verburg, Peter H.; Soepboer, Welmoed; Veldkamp, A.; Limpiada, Ramil; Espaldon, Victoria; Mastura, Sharifah S. A.

2002-09-01

Land-use change models are important tools for integrated environmental management. Through scenario analysis they can help to identify near-future critical locations in the face of environmental change. A dynamic, spatially explicit, land-use change model is presented for the regional scale: CLUE-S. The model is specifically developed for the analysis of land use in small regions (e.g., a watershed or province) at a fine spatial resolution. The model structure is based on systems theory to allow the integrated analysis of land-use change in relation to socio-economic and biophysical driving factors. The model explicitly addresses the hierarchical organization of land use systems, spatial connectivity between locations and stability. Stability is incorporated by a set of variables that define the relative elasticity of the actual land-use type to conversion. The user can specify these settings based on expert knowledge or survey data. Two applications of the model in the Philippines and Malaysia are used to illustrate the functioning of the model and its validation.

Modeling the spatial dynamics of regional land use: the CLUE-S model.

PubMed

Verburg, Peter H; Soepboer, Welmoed; Veldkamp, A; Limpiada, Ramil; Espaldon, Victoria; Mastura, Sharifah S A

2002-09-01

Land-use change models are important tools for integrated environmental management. Through scenario analysis they can help to identify near-future critical locations in the face of environmental change. A dynamic, spatially explicit, land-use change model is presented for the regional scale: CLUE-S. The model is specifically developed for the analysis of land use in small regions (e.g., a watershed or province) at a fine spatial resolution. The model structure is based on systems theory to allow the integrated analysis of land-use change in relation to socio-economic and biophysical driving factors. The model explicitly addresses the hierarchical organization of land use systems, spatial connectivity between locations and stability. Stability is incorporated by a set of variables that define the relative elasticity of the actual land-use type to conversion. The user can specify these settings based on expert knowledge or survey data. Two applications of the model in the Philippines and Malaysia are used to illustrate the functioning of the model and its validation.

Greenhouse effect and coastal wetland policy: How Americans could abandon an area the size of Massachusetts at minimum cost

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Titus, James G.

1991-01-01

Climatologists generally expect an anthropogenic global warming that could raise sea level 30-150 cm in the next century and more thereafter. One of the impacts would be the loss of coastal wetlands. Although the inundation of adjacent dryland would enable new wetlands to form, much of this land is or will soon be developed. If developed areas are protected, wetlands will be squeezed between an advancing sea and the land being protected, which has already happened in China and the Netherlands, where people have built dikes for centuries. Unlike those countries, the United States has enough land to accommodate the landward migration of wetlands; but governments lack the funds to purchase all the coastal lowlands that might be inundated and the legal authority to prohibit their development. We propose a third approach: allowing property owners to use coastal lowlands today as they choose, but setting up a legal mechanism to ensure that the land is abandoned if and when sea level rises enough to inundate it. Although compensation may be required, this approach would cost less than 1% as much as purchasing the land, and would be (1) economically efficient by enabling real estate markets to incorporate expectations of future sea level rise; (2) constitutional by compensating property owners; and (3) politically feasible by pleasing people who care about the long-term fate of the coastal environment without disturbing people who either are unconcerned about the distant future or do not believe sea level will rise. This article demonstrates that it would be irrational to delay policy formulation until sea level rise projections are more precise. The cost will be small if we act now but great if we wait, and sea level is already rising along most coasts. The US government should develop a strategy in the next three years.

Strategy for the Identification of an INL Comprehensive Utility Corridor

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

John Reisenauer

2011-05-01

This report documents the strategy developed to identify a comprehensive utility corridor (CUC) on the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) Site. The strategy established the process for which the Campus Development Office will evaluate land management issues. It is a process that uses geographical information system geospatial technology to layer critical INL mission information in a way that thorough evaluations can be conducted and strategies developed. The objective of the CUC Project was to develop a process that could be implemented to identify potential utility corridor options for consideration. The process had to take into account all the missions occurring onmore » the INL and other land-related issues. The process for developing a CUC strategy consists of the following four basic elements using geographical information system capabilities: 1. Development of an INL base layer map; this base layer map geospatially references all stationary geographical features on INL and sitewide information. 2. Development of current and future mission land-use need maps; this involved working with each directorate to identify current mission land use needs and future land use needs that project 30 years into the future. 3. Development of restricted and potential constraint maps; this included geospatially mapping areas such as wells, contaminated areas, firing ranges, cultural areas, ecological areas, hunting areas, easement, and grazing areas. 4. Development of state highway and power line rights of way map; this included geospatially mapping rights-of-way along existing state highways and power lines running through the INL that support INL operations. It was determined after completing and evaluating the geospatial information that the area with the least impact to INL missions was around the perimeter of the INL Site. Option 1, in this document, identifies this perimeter; however, it does not mean the entire perimeter is viable. Many places along the perimeter corridor cannot be used or are not economically viable. Specific detailed studies will need to be conducted on a case-by-case basis to clearly identify which sections along the perimeter can and cannot be used. Option 2, in this document, identifies areas along existing highways that could be a viable option. However, discussions would have to take place with the State of Idaho to use their easement as part of the corridor and mission impact would need to be evaluated if a specific request was made to the Department of Energy, Idaho Operations Office. Option 3, in this document, is a combination of Options 1 and 2. This option provides the most flexibility to minimize impacts to INL missions. As with the other two options, discussions and agreements with the State of Idaho would be needed and any specific route would need to be thoroughly evaluated for impact, implementation, and operability beyond just a strategy.« less

Drivers of land use/land cover changes in Munessa-Shashemene landscape of the south-central highlands of Ethiopia.

PubMed

Kindu, Mengistie; Schneider, Thomas; Teketay, Demel; Knoke, Thomas

2015-07-01

Understanding drivers of changes in land use/land cover (LULC) is essential for modeling future dynamics or development of management strategies to ameliorate or prevent further decline of natural resources. In this study, an attempt has been made to identify the main drivers behind the LULC changes that had occurred in the past four decades in Munessa-Shashemene landscape of the south-central highlands of Ethiopia. The datasets required for the study were generated through both primary and secondary sources. Combination of techniques, including descriptive statistics, GIS-based processing, and regression analyses were employed for data analyses. Changes triggered by the interplay of more than 12 drivers were identified related to social, economic, environmental, policy/institutional, and technological factors. Specifically, population growth, expansion of cultivated lands and settlements, livestock ranching, cutting of woody species for fuelwood, and charcoal making were the top six important drivers of LULC change as viewed by the local people and confirmed by quantitative analyses. Differences in respondents' perceptions related to environmental (i.e., location specific) and socioeconomic determinants (e.g., age and literacy) about drivers were statically significant (P = 0.001). LULC changes were also determined by distances to major drivers (e.g., the further a pixel is from the road, the less likelihood of changes) as shown by the landscape level analyses. Further studies are suggested targeting these drivers to explore the consequences and future options and formulate intervention strategies for sustainable development in the studied landscape and elsewhere with similar geographic settings.

Climate change and socio-economic scenarios, land use modelling implications on water resources in an inner alpine area, Switzerland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rey, Emmanuel; Schneider, Flurina; Liniger, Hanspeter; Weingartner, Rolf; Herweg, Karl

2014-05-01

The MontanAqua project aims to study the water resources management in the region Sierre-Montana (Valais, Switzerland). Land use is known to have an influence on the water resources (soil moisture dynamic, soil sealing, surface runoff and deep percolation). Thus land use modelling is of importance for the water resources management. An actual land use map was produced using infrared imagery (Niklaus 2012, Fig.1). Land use changes are known to be mainly drived by socio-economic factors as well as climatic factors (Dolman et al. 2003). Potential future Land uses was separatly predicted according to 1-. socio-economic and 2-. climatic/abiotic drivers : 1. 4 socio-economic scenarios were developped with stakeholders (Schneider et al. 2013) between 2010 and 2012. We modeled those socio-economic scenarios into a GIS application using Python programming (ModelBuilder in ArcGIS 10) to get a cartographic transcription of the wishes of the stakeholders for their region in 2050. 2. Uncorrelated climatic and abiotic drivers were used in a BIOMOD2 (Georges et al. 2013) framework. 4 models were used: Maximum Entropy (MAXENT), Multiple Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS), Classification Tree Analysis (CTA) and the Flexible Discriminant Analysis (FDA) to predict grassland, alpine pasture, vineyards and forest in our study region. Climatic scenarios were then introduced into the models to predict potential land use in 2050 driven only by climatic and abiotic factors The comparison of all the outputs demonstrates that the socio-economic drivers will have a more important impact in the region than the climatic drivers (e.g. -70% grassland surface for the worst socio-economic scenario vs. -40% of grassland surface for the worst climatic models). Further analysis also brings out the sensitivity of the grassland/alpine pasture system to the climate change and to socio-economic changes. Future work will be to cross the different land use maps obtained by the two model types and to use them to implement soil moisture and evaporation data for the near-future in the region Sierre-Montana. REFERENCES Niklaus M. 2012. An Object-oriented Approach for Mapping Current Land Use/Land Cover in the Study Area Crans-Montana-Sierre, Valais. MSc, Geography Institute, University of Bern Dolman A.J., Verhagen A. & Rovers C.A. 2003. Global environmental change and land use. Kluwer Academic Publisher. Dordrecht. Schneider F. & Rist S. 2013. Envisioning sustainable water futures in a transdisciplinary learning process: combining normative, explorative, and participatory scenario approaches. Sustainability Science, in press. Georges D. & Thuiller W. 2012. An example of species distribution modelling with biomod2. biomod2 version : 2.0.17

Forests and future water stress in the Southeast

Treesearch

Stephanie Worley Firley

2009-01-01

How will future water supplies be impacted by a changing climate, an increasing population, and shifting land uses and land cover? Will there be enough water to sustain humans and ecosystems alike? And what can be done to help forests adapt to limited water supplies in the future?

Land-use planning: One geologist's viewpoint

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zen, E.-A.

1983-01-01

Planning for the best use of land and its resources should take fully into consideration the long-term consequences of each type of use in order to stretch out most beneficially the well-being of society in the future, and to protect the integrity of the land and its biota. Three kinds of land-use can be distinguished for planning purposes. Reversible land-use leaves the land, after use, essentially as it was before; little or no man-induced modification remains. An example of reversible use in the United States is the designation of certain public lands as Wilderness. Terminal land-use commits the land to a chosen particular use, and any attempt at reversal requires either time-scales that are long compared with the expected lifespan of the social and political institution, or a commitment of resources that is too high for society to consider worth bearing. Examples of terminal land-use are location of metropolises and sites of toxic and/or radioactive waste disposals; by its nature the list grows monotonically. A current source of some social tension arises from the fact that Wilderness designation appears to assign a terminal-use status by legislative fiat, whereas in fact the land is being used reversibly. In between these two extremes of reversible and terminal land-use, the bulk of land-use is sequential, in which each use of land changes its potentials and configurations, and these changes are mainly irreversible. One goal of geologic input to land-use planning is to identify the various pathways along which a given land may be used, in order to extract the greatest benefit to society with the least harm to the land and its life. The proposed planning format consists of identification of (1) types of land, (2) types of use, (3) nature of consumption of resources when (2) acts upon (1), (4) identification of alternative pathways of land recovery to the original or some new state, and (5) due consideration of potentials for future use. Some consumptions are tangible; others, such as consumption of future options, are not. However, all must be considered in deciding how the land should be used, and both internal and environmental costs need to be included in the planning. Predictive methodology for land-use planning and for estimations of uncertainties must be developed to allow for the needs and consequences of both land-use and land recovery. Hardin (1968) spoke of the tragedy of the commons; White (1967) discussed the constraints of the western cultural heritage on our attitude towards our land and its resources. Land-use presents an archetype of the problem of the commons; only by community awareness of the dire consequences of the latent tragedy can effective societal action begin for the stewardship of the commons. Land-use decisions involve value judgement and are problems without technical solutions; but they require technical input, and earth scientists have a major role to play in both providing the input and in pointing out the implications of alternative decisions. ?? 1983.

Spatial-temporal variation of marginal land suitable for energy plants from 1990 to 2010 in China

PubMed Central

Jiang, Dong; Hao, Mengmeng; Fu, Jingying; Zhuang, Dafang; Huang, Yaohuan

2014-01-01

Energy plants are the main source of bioenergy which will play an increasingly important role in future energy supplies. With limited cultivated land resources in China, the development of energy plants may primarily rely on the marginal land. In this study, based on the land use data from 1990 to 2010(every 5 years is a period) and other auxiliary data, the distribution of marginal land suitable for energy plants was determined using multi-factors integrated assessment method. The variation of land use type and spatial distribution of marginal land suitable for energy plants of different decades were analyzed. The results indicate that the total amount of marginal land suitable for energy plants decreased from 136.501 million ha to 114.225 million ha from 1990 to 2010. The reduced land use types are primarily shrub land, sparse forest land, moderate dense grassland and sparse grassland, and large variation areas are located in Guangxi, Tibet, Heilongjiang, Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia. The results of this study will provide more effective data reference and decision making support for the long-term planning of bioenergy resources. PMID:25056520

X-37 Flight Demonstrator Project: Capabilities for Future Space Transportation System Development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dumbacher, Daniel L.

2004-01-01

The X-37 Approach and Landing Vehicle (ALTV) is an automated (unmanned) spacecraft designed to reduce technical risk in the descent and landing phases of flight. ALTV mission requirements and Orbital Vehicle (OV) technology research and development (R&D) goals are formulated to validate and mature high-payoff ground and flight technologies such as Thermal Protection Systems (TPS). It has been more than three decades since the Space Shuttle was designed and built. Real-world hardware experience gained through the multitude of X-37 Project activities has expanded both Government and industry knowledge of the challenges involved in developing new generations of spacecraft that can fulfill the Vision for Space Exploration.

Simulating the conversion of rural settlements to town land based on multi-agent systems and cellular automata.

PubMed

Liu, Yaolin; Kong, Xuesong; Liu, Yanfang; Chen, Yiyun

2013-01-01

Rapid urbanization in China has triggered the conversion of land from rural to urban use, particularly the conversion of rural settlements to town land. This conversion is the result of the joint effects of the geographic environment and agents involving the government, investors, and farmers. To understand the dynamic interaction dominated by agents and to predict the future landscape of town expansion, a small town land-planning model is proposed based on the integration of multi-agent systems (MAS) and cellular automata (CA). The MAS-CA model links the decision-making behaviors of agents with the neighbor effect of CA. The interaction rules are projected by analyzing the preference conflicts among agents. To better illustrate the effects of the geographic environment, neighborhood, and agent behavior, a comparative analysis between the CA and MAS-CA models in three different towns is presented, revealing interesting patterns in terms of quantity, spatial characteristics, and the coordinating process. The simulation of rural settlements conversion to town land through modeling agent decision and human-environment interaction is very useful for understanding the mechanisms of rural-urban land-use change in developing countries. This process can assist town planners in formulating appropriate development plans.

Development of European NO2 Land Use Regression Model for present and future exposure assessment: Implications for policy analysis.

PubMed

Vizcaino, Pilar; Lavalle, Carlo

2018-05-04

A new Land Use Regression model was built to develop pan-European 100 m resolution maps of NO 2 concentrations. The model was built using NO 2 concentrations from routine monitoring stations available in the Airbase database as dependent variable. Predictor variables included land use, road traffic proxies, population density, climatic and topographical variables, and distance to sea. In order to capture international and inter regional disparities not accounted for with the mentioned predictor variables, additional proxies of NO 2 concentrations, like levels of activity intensity and NO x emissions for specific sectors, were also included. The model was built using Random Forest techniques. Model performance was relatively good given the EU-wide scale (R 2  = 0.53). Output predictions of annual average concentrations of NO 2 were in line with other existing models in terms of spatial distribution and values of concentration. The model was validated for year 2015, comparing model predictions derived from updated values of independent variables, with concentrations in monitoring stations for that year. The algorithm was then used to model future concentrations up to the year 2030, considering different emission scenarios as well as changes in land use, population distribution and economic factors assuming the most likely socio-economic trends. Levels of exposure were derived from maps of concentration. The model proved to be a useful tool for the ex-ante evaluation of specific air pollution mitigation measures, and more broadly, for impact assessment of EU policies on territorial development. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Ultra-Compact Raman Spectrometer for Planetary Explorations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Davis, Derek; Hornef, James; Lucas, John; Elsayed-Ali, Hani; Abedin, M. Nurul

2016-01-01

To develop a compact Raman spectroscopy system with features that will make it suitable for future space missions which require surface landing. Specifically, this system will be appropriate for any mission in which planetary surface samples need to be measured and analyzed.

GET SMARTE: A DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM TO REVITALIZE COMMUNITIES - CABERNET 2007

EPA Science Inventory

Sustainable Management Approaches and Revitalization Tools - electronic (SMARTe), is an open-source, web-based, decision support system for developing and evaluating future reuse scenarios for potentially contaminated land. SMARTe contains information and analysis tools for all a...

Regional Modeling of Ecosystem Services Provided by Stream Fishes

EPA Science Inventory

Fish habitat and biodiversity for fish are valuable ecosystem services provided by rivers. Future land development and climate change will likely alter these services, and an understanding of these responses can guide management and restoration priorities. We used hierarchical mo...

Facing policy challenges with inter- and transdisciplinary soil research focused on the UN Sustainable Development Goals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bouma, Johan; Montanarella, Luca

2016-04-01

Our current information society, populated by increasingly well-informed and critical stakeholders, presents a challenge to both the policy and science arenas. The introduction of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) offers a unique and welcome opportunity to direct joint activities towards these goals. Soil science, even though it is not mentioned as such, plays an important role in realizing a number of SDGs focusing on food, water, climate, health, biodiversity, and sustainable land use. A plea is made for a systems approach to land use studies, to be initiated by soil scientists, in which these land-related SDGs are considered in an integrated manner. To connect with policy makers and stakeholders, two approaches are functional. The first of these is the policy cycle when planning and executing research, which includes signaling, design, decision making, implementation, and evaluation. Many current research projects spend little time on signaling, which may lead to disengagement of stakeholders. Also, implementation is often seen as the responsibility of others, while it is crucial to demonstrate - if successful - the relevance of soil science. The second approach is the DPSIR approach when following the policy cycle in land-related research, distinguishing external drivers, pressures, impact, and responses to land use change that affect the state of the land in the past, present, and future. Soil science cannot by itself realize SDGs, and interdisciplinary studies on ecosystem services (ESs) provide an appropriate channel to define contributions of soil science in terms of the seven soil functions. ESs, in turn, can contribute to addressing the six SDGs (2, 3, 6, 12, 13, and 15) with an environmental, land-related character. SDGs have a societal focus and future soil science research can only be successful if stakeholders are part of the research effort in transdisciplinary projects, based on the principle of time-consuming "joint learning". The internal organization of the soil science discipline is not yet well tuned to the needs of inter- and transdisciplinary approaches.

Hydrological changes impacts on annual runoff distribution in seasonally dry basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Viola, F.; Caracciolo, D.; Feng, X.

2017-12-01

Runoff is expected to be modified in the next future by climate change as well as by land use change. Given its importance for water supply and ecosystem functioning, it is therefore imperative to develop adaptation strategies and new policies for regional water resources management and planning. To do so, the identification and attribution of natural flow regime shifts as a result of climate and land use changes are of crucial importance. In this context, the Budyko's curve has begun to be widely adopted to separate the contributions of climate and land use changes to the variation of runoff over long-term periods by using the multi-year averages of hydrological variables. In this study, a framework based on Fu's equation is proposed and applied to separate the impacts of climate and land use changes on the future annual runoff distribution in seasonally dry basins, such as those in Mediterranean climates. In particular, this framework improves a recently developed method to obtain annual runoff probability density function (pdf) in seasonally dry basins from annual rainfall and potential evapotranspiration statistics, and from knowledge of the Fu's equation parameter ω. The effect of climate change has been taken into account through the variation of the first order statistics of annual rainfall and potential evapotranspiration, consistent with general circulation models' outputs, while the Fu's equation parameter ω has been changed to represent land use change. The effects of the two factors of change (i.e., climate and land use) on the annual runoff pdf have been first independently and then jointly analyzed, by reconstructing the annual runoff pdfs for the current period and, based on likely scenarios, within the next 100 years. The results show that, for large basins, climate change is the dominant driver of the decline in annual runoff, while land use change is a secondary but important factor.

'Underutilised' agricultural land: its definitions, potential use for future biomass production and its environmental implications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miyake, Saori; Bargiel, Damian

2017-04-01

A growing bioeconomy and increased demand for biomass products on food, health, fibre, industrial products and energy require land resources for feedstock production. It has resulted in significant environmental and socio-economic challenges on a global scale. As a result, consideration of such effects of land use change (LUC) from biomass production (particularly for biofuel feedstock) has emerged as an important area of policy and research, and several potential solutions have been proposed to minimise such adverse LUC effects. One of these solutions is the use of lands that are not in production or not suitable for food crop production, such as 'marginal', 'degraded', 'abandoned' and 'surplus' agricultural lands for future biomass production. The terms referring to these lands are usually associated with the potential production of 'marginal crops', which can grow in marginal conditions (e.g. poor soil fertility, low rainfall, drought) without much water and agrochemical inputs. In our research, we referred to these lands as 'underutilised' agricultural land and attempted to define them for our case study areas located in Australia and Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). Our goal is to identify lands that can be used for future biomass production and to evaluate their environmental implications, particularly impacts related to biodiversity, water and soil at a landscape scale. The identification of these lands incorporates remote sensing and spatially explicit approaches. Our findings confirmed that there was no universal or single definition of the term 'underutilised' agricultural land as the definitions significantly vary by country and region depending not only on the biophysical environment but also political, institutional and socio-economic conditions. Moreover, our results highlighted that the environmental implications of production of biomass on 'underutilised' agricultural land for biomass production are highly controversial. Thus land use change scenarios with low-impact crops and production system must be designed for future biomass production taking into consideration climate, land use, local biophysical conditions and relevant policies (e.g. conservation) within a regional/ landscape planning framework.

Climate mitigation and the future of tropical landscapes.

PubMed

Thomson, Allison M; Calvin, Katherine V; Chini, Louise P; Hurtt, George; Edmonds, James A; Bond-Lamberty, Ben; Frolking, Steve; Wise, Marshall A; Janetos, Anthony C

2010-11-16

Land-use change to meet 21st-century demands for food, fuel, and fiber will depend on many interactive factors, including global policies limiting anthropogenic climate change and realized improvements in agricultural productivity. Climate-change mitigation policies will alter the decision-making environment for land management, and changes in agricultural productivity will influence cultivated land expansion. We explore to what extent future increases in agricultural productivity might offset conversion of tropical forest lands to crop lands under a climate mitigation policy and a contrasting no-policy scenario in a global integrated assessment model. The Global Change Assessment Model is applied here to simulate a mitigation policy that stabilizes radiative forcing at 4.5 W m(-2) (approximately 526 ppm CO(2)) in the year 2100 by introducing a price for all greenhouse gas emissions, including those from land use. These scenarios are simulated with several cases of future agricultural productivity growth rates and the results downscaled to produce gridded maps of potential land-use change. We find that tropical forests are preserved near their present-day extent, and bioenergy crops emerge as an effective mitigation option, only in cases in which a climate mitigation policy that includes an economic price for land-use emissions is in place, and in which agricultural productivity growth continues throughout the century. We find that idealized land-use emissions price assumptions are most effective at limiting deforestation, even when cropland area must increase to meet future food demand. These findings emphasize the importance of accounting for feedbacks from land-use change emissions in global climate change mitigation strategies.

EPA RE-Powering America's Lands: Kansas City Municipal Farm Site ₋ Biomass Power Analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hunsberger, R.; Mosey, G.

2015-01-01

Through the RE-Powering America's Land initiative, the economic and technical feasibility of utilizing biomass at the Kansas City, Missouri, Municipal Farm site, a group of City-owned properties, is explored. The study that none of the technologies we reviewed--biomass heat, power and CHP--are economically viable options for the Municipal Farms site. However, if the site were to be developed around a future central biomass heating or CHP facility, biomass could be a good option for the site.

Adaptation Measures Evaliation on Agriculture Under Future Climate and Land Use Scenarios in Central Chile

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henriquez Dole, L. E.; Vicuna, S.; Gironas, J. A.; Meza, F. J.

2016-12-01

Future climate change scenarios threaten current practices in agriculture and therefore adaptation measures have been proposed to overcome this possible situation. Regional to local ideas apply for all kind of adaptation measures and can be found among literature for Central Chile, but their quantitative efficiency is rarely evaluated. Furthermore, land uses changes are commonly neglected in such evaluations. This research use the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) model and the Plant Growth Model (PGM) to simulate weekly water distribution and consumption in Chile's rural areas up to 2050. Using information directly provided by the Water User Organizations (WUO), the developed model assesses possible future impacts on 2 crops (corn and plum) under 15 climate scenarios and land use trends. Results show that WEAP-PGM tool can represent satisfactorily crop sensitiveness to historic and future circumstances. Nine scenarios satisfy average crop water demands, but all of them present a diminished yield (1%-14%) and production (8%-20%). Just six scenarios cannot meet crop water demands (40-70% of reliability) if adaptation measures are not applied. Given this need, two adaptation measures were evaluated: a) using all water rights and b) irrigation improvements. The second option showed to be the most effective measure leading to the satisfaction of crop water demands under all the scenarios, but still a diminished yield and production remained.

Future C loss in mid-latitude mineral soils: climate change exceeds land use mitigation potential in France

PubMed Central

Meersmans, Jeroen; Arrouays, Dominique; Van Rompaey, Anton J. J.; Pagé, Christian; De Baets, Sarah; Quine, Timothy A.

2016-01-01

Many studies have highlighted significant interactions between soil C reservoir dynamics and global climate and environmental change. However, in order to estimate the future soil organic carbon sequestration potential and related ecosystem services well, more spatially detailed predictions are needed. The present study made detailed predictions of future spatial evolution (at 250 m resolution) of topsoil SOC driven by climate change and land use change for France up to the year 2100 by taking interactions between climate, land use and soil type into account. We conclude that climate change will have a much bigger influence on future SOC losses in mid-latitude mineral soils than land use change dynamics. Hence, reducing CO2 emissions will be crucial to prevent further loss of carbon from our soils. PMID:27808169

Future C loss in mid-latitude mineral soils: climate change exceeds land use mitigation potential in France.

PubMed

Meersmans, Jeroen; Arrouays, Dominique; Van Rompaey, Anton J J; Pagé, Christian; De Baets, Sarah; Quine, Timothy A

2016-11-03

Many studies have highlighted significant interactions between soil C reservoir dynamics and global climate and environmental change. However, in order to estimate the future soil organic carbon sequestration potential and related ecosystem services well, more spatially detailed predictions are needed. The present study made detailed predictions of future spatial evolution (at 250 m resolution) of topsoil SOC driven by climate change and land use change for France up to the year 2100 by taking interactions between climate, land use and soil type into account. We conclude that climate change will have a much bigger influence on future SOC losses in mid-latitude mineral soils than land use change dynamics. Hence, reducing CO 2 emissions will be crucial to prevent further loss of carbon from our soils.

Incorporating JULES into NASA's Land Information System (LIS) and Investigations of Land-Atmosphere Coupling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Santanello, Joseph

2011-01-01

NASA's Land Information System (LIS; lis.gsfc.nasa.gov) is a flexible land surface modeling and data assimilation framework developed over the past decade with the goal of integrating satellite- and ground-based observational data products and advanced land surface modeling techniques to produce optimal fields of land surface states and fluxes. LIS features a high performance and flexible design, and operates on an ensemble of land surface models for extension over user-specified regional or global domains. The extensible interfaces of LIS allow the incorporation of new domains, land surface models (LSMs), land surface parameters, meteorological inputs, data assimilation and optimization algorithms. In addition, LIS has also been demonstrated for parameter estimation and uncertainty estimation, and has been coupled to the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale model. A visiting fellowship is currently underway to implement JULES into LIS and to undertake some fundamental science on the feedbacks between the land surface and the atmosphere. An overview of the LIS system, features, and sample results will be presented in an effort to engage the community in the potential advantages of LIS-JULES for a range of applications. Ongoing efforts to develop a framework for diagnosing land-atmosphere coupling will also be presented using the suite of LSM and PBL schemes available in LIS and WRF along with observations from the U. S .. Southern Great Plains. This methodology provides a potential pathway to study factors controlling local land-atmosphere coupling (LoCo) using the LIS-WRF system, which will serve as a testbed for future experiments to evaluate coupling diagnostics within the community.

Land-use and land-cover scenarios and spatial modeling at the regional scale

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sohl, Terry L.; Sleeter, Benjamin M.

2012-01-01

Land-use and land-cover (LULC) change has altered a large part of the earth's surface. Scenarios of potential future LULC change are required in order to better manage potential impacts on biodiversity, carbon fluxes, climate change, hydrology, and many other ecological processes. The U.S. Geological Survey is analyzing potential future LULC change in the United States, using an approach based on scenario construction and spatially explicit modeling. Similar modeling techniques are being used to produce historical LULC maps from 1940 to present. With the combination of backcast and forecast LULC data, the USGS is providing consistent LULC data for historical, current, and future time frames to support a variety of research applications.

Theory Can Help Structure Regression Models for Projecting Stream Conditions Under Alternative Land Use Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Sickle, J.; Baker, J.; Herlihy, A.

2005-05-01

We built multiple regression models for Emphemeroptera/ Plecoptera/ Tricoptera (EPT) taxon richness and other indicators of biological condition in streams of the Willamette River Basin, Oregon, USA. The models were used to project the changes in condition that would be expected in all 2-4th order streams of the 30000 sq km basin under alternative scenarios of future land use. In formulating the models, we invoked the theory of limiting factors to express the interactive effects of stream power and watershed land use on EPT richness. The resulting models were parsimonious, and they fit the data in our wedge-shaped scatterplots slightly better than did a naive additive-effects model. Just as theory helped formulate our regression models, the models in turn helped us identify a new research need for the Basin's streams. Our future scenarios project that conversions of agricultural to urban uses may dominate landscape dynamics in the basin over the next 50 years. But our models could not detect any difference between the effects of agricultural and urban development in watersheds on stream biota. This result points to an increased need for understanding how agricultural and urban land uses in the Basin differentially influence stream ecosystems.

Historical U.S. cropland areas and the potential for bioenergy production on abandoned croplands.

PubMed

Zumkehr, A; Campbell, J E

2013-04-16

Agriculture is historically a dominant form of global environmental degradation, and the potential for increased future degradation may be driven by growing demand for food and biofuels. While these impacts have been explored using global gridded maps of croplands, such maps are based on relatively coarse spatial data. Here, we apply high-resolution cropland inventories for the conterminous U.S. with a land-use model to develop historical gridded cropland areas for the years 1850-2000 and year 2000 abandoned cropland maps. While the historical cropland maps are consistent with generally accepted land-use trends, our U.S. abandoned cropland estimates of 68 Mha are as much as 70% larger than previous gridded estimates due to a reduction in aggregation effects. Renewed cultivation on the subset of abandoned croplands that have not become forests or urban lands represents one approach to mitigating the future expansion of agriculture. Potential bioenergy production from these abandoned lands using a wide range of biomass yields and conversion efficiencies has an upper-limit of 5-30% of the current U.S. primary energy demand or 4-30% of the current U.S. liquid fuel demand.

Modeling the effects of climatic and land use changes on phytoplankton and water quality of the largest Turkish freshwater lake: Lake Beyşehir.

PubMed

Bucak, Tuba; Trolle, Dennis; Tavşanoğlu, Ü Nihan; Çakıroğlu, A İdil; Özen, Arda; Jeppesen, Erik; Beklioğlu, Meryem

2018-04-15

Climate change and intense land use practices are the main threats to ecosystem structure and services of Mediterranean lakes. Therefore, it is essential to predict the future changes and develop mitigation measures to combat such pressures. In this study, Lake Beyşehir, the largest freshwater lake in the Mediterranean basin, was selected to study the impacts of climate change and various land use scenarios on the ecosystem dynamics of Mediterranean freshwater ecosystems and the services that they provide. For this purpose, we linked catchment model outputs to the two different processed-based lake models: PCLake and GLM-AED, and tested the scenarios of five General Circulation Models, two Representation Concentration Pathways and three different land use scenarios, which enable us to consider the various sources of uncertainty. Climate change and land use scenarios generally predicted strong future decreases in hydraulic and nutrient loads from the catchment to the lake. These changes in loads translated into alterations in water level as well as minor changes in chlorophyll a (Chl-a) concentrations. We also observed an increased abundance of cyanobacteria in both lake models. Total phosphorus, temperature and hydraulic loading were found to be the most important variables determining cyanobacteria biomass. As the future scenarios revealed only minor changes in Chl-a due to the significant decrease in nutrient loads, our results highlight that reduced nutrient loading in a warming world may play a crucial role in offsetting the effects of temperature on phytoplankton growth. However, our results also showed increased abundance of cyanobacteria in the future may threaten ecosystem integrity and may limit drinking water ecosystem services. In addition, extended periods of decreased hydraulic loads from the catchment and increased evaporation may lead to water level reductions and may diminish the ecosystem services of the lake as a water supply for irrigation and drinking water. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Land Use and Land Cover Dichotomy: A Comparison of Two Land Classification Systems in Support of Urban Earth Science Applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McAllister, William K.

2003-01-01

One is likely to read the terms 'land use' and 'land cover' in the same sentence, yet these concepts have different origins and different applications. Land cover is typically analyzed by earth scientists working with remotely sensed images. Land use is typically studied by urban planners who must prescribe solutions that could prevent future problems. This apparent dichotomy has led to different classification systems for land-based data. The works of earth scientists and urban planning practitioners are beginning to come together in the field of spatial analysis and in their common use of new spatial analysis technology. In this context, the technology can stimulate a common 'language' that allows a broader sharing of ideas. The increasing amount of land use and land cover change challenges the various efforts to classify in ways that are efficient, effective, and agreeable to all groups of users. If land cover and land uses can be identified by remote methods using aerial photography and satellites, then these ways are more efficient than field surveys of the same area. New technology, such as high-resolution satellite sensors, and new methods, such as more refined algorithms for image interpretation, are providing refined data to better identify the actual cover and apparent use of land, thus effectiveness is improved. However, the closer together and the more vertical the land uses are, the more difficult the task of identification is, and the greater is the need to supplement remotely sensed data with field study (in situ). Thus, a number of land classification methods were developed in order to organize the greatly expanding volume of data on land characteristics in ways useful to different groups. This paper distinguishes two land based classification systems, one developed primarily for remotely sensed data, and the other, a more comprehensive system requiring in situ collection methods. The intent is to look at how the two systems developed and how they can work together so that land based information can be shared among different users and compared over time.

Integrated Modeling and Participatory Scenario Planning for Climate Adaptation: the Maui Groundwater Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keener, V. W.; Finucane, M.; Brewington, L.

2014-12-01

For the last century, the island of Maui, Hawaii, has been the center of environmental, agricultural, and legal conflict with respect to surface and groundwater allocation. Planning for adequate future freshwater resources requires flexible and adaptive policies that emphasize partnerships and knowledge transfer between scientists and non-scientists. In 2012 the Hawai'i state legislature passed the Climate Change Adaptation Priority Guidelines (Act 286) law requiring county and state policy makers to include island-wide climate change scenarios in their planning processes. This research details the ongoing work by researchers in the NOAA funded Pacific RISA to support the development of Hawaii's first island-wide water use plan under the new climate adaptation directive. This integrated project combines several models with participatory future scenario planning. The dynamically downscaled triply nested Hawaii Regional Climate Model (HRCM) was modified from the WRF community model and calibrated to simulate the many microclimates on the Hawaiian archipelago. For the island of Maui, the HRCM was validated using 20 years of hindcast data, and daily projections were created at a 1 km scale to capture the steep topography and diverse rainfall regimes. Downscaled climate data are input into a USGS hydrological model to quantify groundwater recharge. This model was previously used for groundwater management, and is being expanded utilizing future climate projections, current land use maps and future scenario maps informed by stakeholder input. Participatory scenario planning began in 2012 to bring together a diverse group of over 50 decision-makers in government, conservation, and agriculture to 1) determine the type of information they would find helpful in planning for climate change, and 2) develop a set of scenarios that represent alternative climate/management futures. This is an iterative process, resulting in flexible and transparent narratives at multiple scales. The resulting climate, land use, and groundwater recharge maps give stakeholders a common set of future scenarios that they understand through the participatory scenario process, and identify the vulnerabilities, trade-offs, and adaptive priorities for different groundwater management and land uses in an uncertain future.

Advancing Lidar Sensors Technologies for Next Generation Landing Missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Amzajerdian, Farzin; Hines, Glenn D.; Roback, Vincent E.; Petway, Larry B.; Barnes, Bruce W.; Brewster, Paul F.; Pierrottet, Diego F.; Bulyshev, Alexander

2015-01-01

Missions to solar systems bodies must meet increasingly ambitious objectives requiring highly reliable "precision landing", and "hazard avoidance" capabilities. Robotic missions to the Moon and Mars demand landing at pre-designated sites of high scientific value near hazardous terrain features, such as escarpments, craters, slopes, and rocks. Missions aimed at paving the path for colonization of the Moon and human landing on Mars need to execute onboard hazard detection and precision maneuvering to ensure safe landing near previously deployed assets. Asteroid missions require precision rendezvous, identification of the landing or sampling site location, and navigation to the highly dynamic object that may be tumbling at a fast rate. To meet these needs, NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) has developed a set of advanced lidar sensors under the Autonomous Landing and Hazard Avoidance Technology (ALHAT) project. These lidar sensors can provide precision measurement of vehicle relative proximity, velocity, and orientation, and high resolution elevation maps of the surface during the descent to the targeted body. Recent flights onboard Morpheus free-flyer vehicle have demonstrated the viability of ALHAT lidar sensors for future landing missions to solar system bodies.

Land cover characterization and mapping of continental southeast Asia using multi-resolution satellite sensor data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Giri, Chandra; Defourny, Pierre; Shrestha, Surendra

2003-01-01

Land use/land cover change, particularly that of tropical deforestation and forest degradation, has been occurring at an unprecedented rate and scale in Southeast Asia. The rapid rate of economic development, demographics and poverty are believed to be the underlying forces responsible for the change. Accurate and up-to-date information to support the above statement is, however, not available. The available data, if any, are outdated and are not comparable for various technical reasons. Time series analysis of land cover change and the identification of the driving forces responsible for these changes are needed for the sustainable management of natural resources and also for projecting future land cover trajectories. We analysed the multi-temporal and multi-seasonal NOAA Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) satellite data of 1985/86 and 1992 to (1) prepare historical land cover maps and (2) to identify areas undergoing major land cover transformations (called ‘hot spots’). The identified ‘hot spot’ areas were investigated in detail using high-resolution satellite sensor data such as Landsat and SPOT supplemented by intensive field surveys. Shifting cultivation, intensification of agricultural activities and change of cropping patterns, and conversion of forest to agricultural land were found to be the principal reasons for land use/land cover change in the Oudomxay province of Lao PDR, the Mekong Delta of Vietnam and the Loei province of Thailand, respectively. Moreover, typical land use/land cover change patterns of the ‘hot spot’ areas were also examined. In addition, we developed an operational methodology for land use/land cover change analysis at the national level with the help of national remote sensing institutions.

Assessing dam development, land use conversion, and climate change pressures on tributary river flows and water quality of the Mekong's Tonle Sap basin.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cochrane, T. A.; Arias, M. E.; Oeurng, C.; Arnaiz, M.; Piman, T.

2016-12-01

The Tonle Sap Lake is Southeast Asia's most productive freshwater fishery, but the productivity of this valuable ecosystem is under threat from extensive development in the lower Mekong. With dams potentially blocking all major tributaries along the lower Mekong River, the role of local Tonle Sap basin tributaries for maintaining environmental flows, sediment loads, and fish recruitment is becoming increasingly critical. Development within the Tonle Sap basin, however, is not stagnant. Developers are proposing extensive dam development in key Tonle Sap tributaries (see Figure). Some dams will provide hydroelectricity and others will provide opportunities for large-scale irrigation resulting in agro-industrial expansion. There is thus an immediate need to assess the current situation and understand future effects of dam development and land use conversion under climate change on local riverine ecosystems. A combination of remote sensing, field visits, and hydro-meteorological data analyses enabled an assessment of water infrastructure and agricultural development in the basin. The application of SWAT for modelling flows and water quality combined with HEC-RESSIM for reservoir operations enabled for a holistic modelling approach. Initial results show that dams and land use change dominate flow and water quality responses, when compared to climate change. Large ongoing dam and irrigation development in the Pursat and Battambang subbasins will critically alter the natural river flows to the Tonle Sap Lake. Some of the observed dams did not have provisions for sediment flushing, clearing of flooded areas, fish passages, or other environmental protection measures. Poor planning and operation of this infrastructure could have dire consequences on the fragile riverine ecosystem of Tonle Sap tributaries, resulting in fish migration barriers, losses in aquatic habitats, and ecological degradation. The seemingly chaotic development in the Tonle Sap basin induces a great level of complexity in the prediction of future change in flows, sediment, and nutrients to the Tonle Sap, which needs to be overcome with improved data gathering through tools such as remote sensing. Timely interventions to the current development is needed in order to alleviate future environmental pressures.

Climate Change Impacts on the Built Environment in the United States and Implications for Sustainability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Quattrochi, Dale A.

2012-01-01

As an integral part of the National Climate Assessment (NCA), technical assessment reports for 13 regions in the U.S. that describe the scientific rationale to support climate change impacts within the purview of these regions, and provide adaptation or mitigation measures in response to these impacts. These technical assessments focus on climate change impacts on sectors that are important environmental, biophysical, and social and economic aspects of sustainability within the U.S.: Climate change science, Ecosystems and biodiversity, Water resources, Human health, Energy supply and use, Water/energy/land use, Transportation, Urban/infrastructure/vulnerability, Agriculture, Impacts of climate change on tribal/indigenous and native lands and resources, Forestry, Land use/land cover change, Rural communities development, and Impacts on biogeochemical cycles, with implications for ecosystems and biodiversity. There is a critical and timely need for the development of mitigation and adaptation strategies in response to climate change by the policy and decision making communities, to insure resiliency and sustainability of the built environment in the future.

Farming or seasonal migration? - Potential futures of reindeer husbandry in Fennoscandia studied with Social-Ecological System (SES) approach, co-production of knowledge, and scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Käyhkö, Jukka; Horstkotte, Tim; Vehmas, Jarmo; Forbes, Bruce

2017-04-01

The area allocated for reindeer husbandry in Finland, Sweden and Norway covers approximately 40 % of each country. As the livelihood requires large, relatively unfragmented territories while being marginal in terms of direct income, land-use conflicts between various livelihoods and activities, such as forestry, agriculture, mining, energy production, tourism, and nature protection are common phenomena in the region. Simultaneously, rapid societal change, urban exodus and fading traditions as well as climate warming and subsequent ecosystem change may put the livelihood at stake. We have probed potential futures of reindeer husbandry in Northern Fennoscandia using the Social-Ecological System (SES) approach, knowledge co-production in stakeholder-scientist workshops in all three countries, and scenario building based on quantitative data and narratives. Regarding the future of the livelihood, we have identified some crucial components in the SES that are influential in determining the direction of development. We produced four potential pathways of future development and demonstrate that important factors controlling the direction of development include governance and actor relations. Governance is often considered distant and opaque by local stakeholders, fostering conflicts in land allocation, while unclear regulations at local level reinforce emerging conflict situations leading to distrust and restrained communication between the actors. Regionally, these conflicts may lead to decreased resilience and threaten the future of the livelihood altogether. Therefore, research should focus on supporting the reform process of institutional arrangements and governance mechanisms, and fostering co-design and co-production processes that ease distrust and improve resilience of the livelihood in multifunctional landscapes.

Measuring the past 20 years of urban-rural land growth in flood-prone areas in the developed Taihu Lake watershed, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Su, Weizhong

2017-03-01

There is growing interest in using the urban landscape for stormwater management studies, where land patterns and processes can be important controls for the sustainability of urban development and planning. This paper proposes an original index of Major Hazard Oriented Level (MHOL) and investigates the structure distribution, driving factors, and controlling suggestions of urban-rural land growth in flood-prone areas in the Taihu Lake watershed, China. The MHOL of incremental urban-rural land increased from M 31.51 during the years 1985-1995 to M 38.37 during the years 1995-2010 (M for medium structure distribution, and the number for high-hazard value). The index shows that urban-rural land was distributed uniformly in flood hazard levels and tended to move rapidly to high-hazard areas, where 72.68% of incremental urban-rural land was aggregated maximally in new urban districts along the Huning traffic line and the Yangtze River. Thus, the current accelerating growth of new urban districts could account for the ampliative exposure to high-hazard areas. New districts are driven by the powerful link between land financial benefits and political achievements for local governments and the past unsustainable process of "single objective" oriented planning. The correlation categorical analysis of the current development intensity and carrying capacity of hydrological ecosystems for sub-basins was used to determine four types of development areas and provide decision makers with indications on the future watershed-scale subdivision of Major Function Oriented Zoning implemented by the Chinese government.

Climate Change and Socio-Hydrological Dynamics: Adaptations and Feedbacks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woyessa, Yali E.; Welderufael, Worku A.

2012-10-01

A functioning ecological system results in ecosystem goods and services which are of direct value to human beings. Ecosystem services are the conditions and processes which sustain and fulfil human life, and maintain biodiversity and the production of ecosystem goods. However, human actions affect ecological systems and the services they provide through various activities, such as land use, water use, pollution and climate change. Climate change is perhaps one of the most important sustainable development challenges that threatens to undo many of the development efforts being made to reach the targets set for the Millennium Development Goals. Understanding the provision of ecosystem services and how they change under different scenarios of climate and biophysical conditions could assist in bringing the issue of ecosystem services into decision making process. Similarly, the impacts of land use change on ecosystems and biodiversity have received considerable attention from ecologists and hydrologists alike. Land use change in a catchment can impact on water supply by altering hydrological processes, such as infiltration, groundwater recharge, base flow and direct runoff. In the past a variety of models were used for predicting landuse changes. Recently, the focus has shifted away from using mathematically oriented models to agent-based modeling (ABM) approach to simulate land use scenarios. The agent-based perspective, with regard to land-use cover change, is centered on the general nature and rules of land-use decision making by individuals. A conceptual framework is developed to investigate the possibility of incorporating the human dimension of land use decision and climate change model into a hydrological model in order to assess the impact of future land use scenario and climate change on the ecological system in general and water resources in particular.

Characterization of Terrain in the Mars Surveyor 2001 Landing Site Latitude and Elevation Region Using Mapping Phase Mars Global Surveyor MOC Images

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Malin, M. C.; Edgett, K. S.; Parker, T. J.

1999-01-01

One of the original objectives of the Mars Orbiter Camera (MOC), as proposed in 1985, was to acquire observations to be used in assessing future spacecraft landing sites. Images obtained by the Mars Global Surveyor MOC since March 1999 provide the highest resolution views (1.5-4.5 m/pixel) of the planet ever seen. We have been examining these new data to develop a general view of what Mars is like at meter-scale within the latitudes and elevations that are accessible to the Mars Surveyor 2001 lander. Our goal is to provide guidance to the 2001 landing site selection process, rather than to use MOC images to recommend a specific landing site.

Habitat loss and modification due to gas development in the Fayetteville shale.

PubMed

Moran, Matthew D; Cox, A Brandon; Wells, Rachel L; Benichou, Chloe C; McClung, Maureen R

2015-06-01

Hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling have become major methods to extract new oil and gas deposits, many of which exist in shale formations in the temperate deciduous biome of the eastern United States. While these technologies have increased natural gas production to new highs, they can have substantial environmental effects. We measured the changes in land use within the maturing Fayetteville Shale gas development region in Arkansas between 2001/2002 and 2012. Our goal was to estimate the land use impact of these new technologies in natural gas drilling and predict future consequences for habitat loss and fragmentation. Loss of natural forest in the gas field was significantly higher compared to areas outside the gas field. The creation of edge habitat, roads, and developed areas was also greater in the gas field. The Fayetteville Shale gas field fully developed about 2% of the natural habitat within the region and increased edge habitat by 1,067 linear km. Our data indicate that without shale gas activities, forest cover would have increased slightly and edge habitat would have decreased slightly, similar to patterns seen recently in many areas of the southern U.S. On average, individual gas wells fully developed about 2.5 ha of land and modified an additional 0.5 ha of natural forest. Considering the large number of wells drilled in other parts of the eastern U.S. and projections for new wells in the future, shale gas development will likely have substantial negative effects on forested habitats and the organisms that depend upon them.

Challenges to Sierra Nevada forests and their local communities: An observational and modeling perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmidt, Cynthia L.

Global forests are experiencing dramatic changes due to changes in climate as well as anthropogenic activities. Increased warming is causing the advancement of some species upslope and northward, while it is also causing widespread mortality due to increased drought conditions. In addition, increasing human population in mountain regions is resulting in elevated risk of human life and property loss due to larger and more severe wildfires. My research focuses on assessing the current vulnerability of forests and their communities in the Sierra Nevada, and how forests are projected to change in the future based on different climate change scenarios. In the first chapter I use Landsat satellite imagery to identify and attribute cause of forest disturbance between 1985 and 2011, primarily focusing on disturbances due to insect, diseases and drought. The change-detection algorithm, Landtrendr, was successfully used to identify forest disturbance, but identifying cause of disturbance was challenging due to the spectral similarities between disturbance types. Landtrendr was most successful in identifying disturbance due to insect, disease and drought in the San Bernardino National Forest, where there is little forest management activity. In the second chapter, I assess whether state or local land use policies in high-fire prone regions exist to reduce the vulnerability of residential developments to wildfire. Three specific land-use tools associated with reducing wildfire vulnerability are identified: (1) buffers around developments; (2) clustered developments; (3) restricting construction on slopes greater than 25%. The study also determines whether demographic and physical characteristics of selected California counties were related to implementing land use policies related to reducing wildfire vulnerability. Results indicate that land use policies related to preventing wildfire-related losses focus on building materials, road access, water availability and vegetation management, not the three identified land-use tools. San Diego County, the county that has experienced the most devastating fires, had the highest percentage of residential developments with both clustering and buffering. The third chapter focuses on future forest conditions. I used a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (DGVM) to assess future vegetation dynamics and productivity under changing climate and atmospheric CO2 concentrations in the Sierra Nevada. Model results suggest that Temperate Broadleaved Evergreen Plant Functional Types (PFTs) will move upslope and eastward, replacing Temperate Needleleaved PFTs. Boreal Needleleaved Evergreen PFTs, found primarily at higher elevations, will decline dramatically as temperatures continue to increase. Gross Primary Productivity (GPP) will increase as atmospheric CO2 concentration increases, due primarily to the increase in the more productive broadleaved PFTs. Forest ecosystems play an important role in maintaining climate stability at the regional and global scales as a vital carbon sink, so understanding the role of disturbance and climate change will be vital to both scientists and policy makers in the future.

Defining a land boundary for sustainable livestock consumption.

PubMed

Van Zanten, Hannah H E; Herrero, Mario; Hal, Ollie Van; Röös, Elin; Muller, Adrian; Garnett, Tara; Gerber, Pierre J; Schader, Christian; De Boer, Imke J M

2018-05-22

The need for more sustainable production and consumption of animal-source food is central to the achievement of the sustainable development goals: within this context, wise use of land is a core challenge and concern. A key question in feeding the future world is: how much animal-source food should we eat? We demonstrate that livestock raised under the circular economy concept could provide a significant, non-negligible part (9-23g/per capita) of our daily protein needs (~50-60 g/per capita). This livestock then would not consume human-edible biomass, such as grains, but mainly convert leftovers from arable land and grass resources into valuable food, implying that production of livestock feed is largely decoupled from arable land. The availability of these biomass streams for livestock then determines the boundaries for livestock production and consumption. Under this concept, the competition for land for feed or food would be minimized and compared to no animal-source food, including some animal-source food in the human diet could free up about one quarter of global arable land. Our results also demonstrate that restricted growth in consumption of animal-source food in Africa and Asia would be feasible under these boundary conditions, while reductions in the rest of the world would be necessary to meet land use sustainability criteria. Managing this expansion and contraction of future consumption of animal-source food is essential for achieving sustainable nutrition security. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Symposium on Geographic Information Systems.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Felleman, John, Ed.

1990-01-01

Six papers on geographic information systems cover the future of geographic information systems, land information systems modernization in Wisconsin, the Topologically Integrated Geographic Encoding and Referencing (TIGER) System of the U.S. Bureau of the Census, satellite remote sensing, geographic information systems and sustainable development,…

75 FR 27997 - Record of Decision (ROD) for the Development and Implementation of Range-Wide Mission and Major...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-05-19

... (FEIS), including the following proposed land use changes: expansion of the Main Post and alterations in..., and increase in the level of test activities; development of six new Specialized Areas (four for test... Strategy Plan and siting process for facilitating future tests and training activities at WSMR; and...

SMARTe Framework: Present Structure And Ideas For The Future, 25 June 2009

EPA Science Inventory

SMARTe (Sustainable Management Approaches and Revitalization Tools-electronic) is a web-based decision support tool being developed by the Office of Research and Development (ORD) in partnership with the Office of Brownfields and Land Rev...

Portfolio and Certification Programs in Community Engagement as Professional Development for Graduate Students: Lessons Learned from Two Land-Grant Universities

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Matthews, Paul H.; Karls, Anna C.; Doberneck, Diane M.; Springer, Nicole C.

2015-01-01

Although growing numbers of graduate students nationwide express interest in developing and documenting boundary-spanning skills in community-engaged research, teaching, and outreach, formal opportunities to do so are often limited, especially at the large research institutions producing most future faculty members. This article focuses on initial…

78 FR 3964 - Request for Public Comment, Raleigh County Memorial Airport, Beckley, WV

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-01-17

... released, the land will be sold and placed in a Conservation Easement, with restriction of no future development. Proposed buyer would be placing the area of request in a conservation easement for wildlife... is not needed for airport development as shown on the Airport Layout Plan. Fair Market Value has been...

A closer look at forests on the edge: future development on private forests in three states.

Treesearch

Eric White; Rhonda. Mazza

2008-01-01

Privately owned forests provide many public benefits, including clean water and air, wildlife habitat, and recreational opportunities. By 2030, 44.2 million acres of rural private forest land across the conterminous United States are projected to experience substantial increases in residential development. As housing density increases, the public benefits provided by...

Evaluating the ecological sustainability of a pinyon-juniper grassland ecosystem in northern Arizona

Treesearch

Reuben Weisz; Jack Triepke; Don Vandendriesche; Mike Manthei; Jim Youtz; Jerry Simon; Wayne Robbie

2010-01-01

In order to develop strategic land management plans, managers must assess current and future ecological conditions. Climate change has expanded the need to assess the sustainability of ecosystems and predict their conditions under different climate change and management scenarios using landscape dynamics simulation models. We present a methodology for developing a...

Potential strong contribution of future anthropogenic land-use and land-cover change to the terrestrial carbon cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quesada, Benjamin; Arneth, Almut; Robertson, Eddy; de Noblet-Ducoudré, Nathalie

2018-06-01

Anthropogenic land-use and land cover changes (LULCC) affect global climate and global terrestrial carbon (C) cycle. However, relatively few studies have quantified the impacts of future LULCC on terrestrial carbon cycle. Here, using Earth system model simulations performed with and without future LULCC, under the RCP8.5 scenario, we find that in response to future LULCC, the carbon cycle is substantially weakened: browning, lower ecosystem C stocks, higher C loss by disturbances and higher C turnover rates are simulated. Projected global greening and land C storage are dampened, in all models, by 22% and 24% on average and projected C loss by disturbances enhanced by ~49% when LULCC are taken into account. By contrast, global net primary productivity is found to be only slightly affected by LULCC (robust +4% relative enhancement compared to all forcings, on average). LULCC is projected to be a predominant driver of future C changes in regions like South America and the southern part of Africa. LULCC even cause some regional reversals of projected increased C sinks and greening, particularly at the edges of the Amazon and African rainforests. Finally, in most carbon cycle responses, direct removal of C dominates over the indirect CO2 fertilization due to LULCC. In consequence, projections of land C sequestration potential and Earth’s greening could be substantially overestimated just because of not fully accounting for LULCC.

Effects of future climate and land use scenarios on riverine source water quality.

PubMed

Delpla, Ianis; Rodriguez, Manuel J

2014-09-15

Surface water quality is particularly sensitive to land use practices and climatic events that affect its catchment. The relative influence of a set of watershed characteristics (climate, land use, morphology and pedology) and climatic variables on two key water quality parameters (turbidity and fecal coliforms (FC)) was examined in 24 eastern Canadian catchments at various spatial scales (1 km, 5 km, 10 km and the entire catchment). A regression analysis revealed that the entire catchment was a better predictor of water quality. Based on this information, linear mixed effect models for predicting turbidity and FC levels were developed. A set of land use and climate scenarios was considered and applied within the water quality models. Four land use scenarios (no change, same rate of variation, optimistic and pessimistic) and three climate change scenarios (B1, A1B and A2) were tested and variations for the near future (2025) were assessed and compared to the reference period (2000). Climate change impacts on water quality remained low annually for this time horizon (turbidity: +1.5%, FC: +1.6%, A2 scenario). On the other hand, the influence of land use changes appeared to predominate. Significant benefits for both parameters could be expected following the optimistic scenario (turbidity: -16.4%, FC: -6.3%; p < 0.05). However, pessimistic land use scenario led to significant increases on an annual basis (turbidity: +11.6%, FC: +15.2%; p < 0.05). Additional simulations conducted for the late 21st century (2090) revealed that climate change impacts could become equivalent to those modeled for land use for this horizon. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

KSC-2014-2341

NASA Image and Video Library

2014-04-30

CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. – Engineers and technicians check NASA's Project Morpheus prototype lander after it touched down on a dedicated landing pad inside the autonomous landing and hazard avoidance technology, or ALHAT, hazard field at the north end of the Shuttle Landing Facility at NASA's Kennedy Space Center in Florida. Morpheus launched on a free-flight test from a new launch pad at the north end of the landing facility. The 98-second test began at 1:57 p.m. EDT with the Morpheus lander launching from the ground over a flame trench and ascending more than 800 feet at a peak speed of 36 mph. The vehicle, with its recently installed ALHAT sensors, surveyed the hazard field to determine safe landing sites. Morpheus then flew forward and downward covering approximately 1300 feet while performing a 78-foot divert to simulate a hazard avoidance maneuver before landing on the dedicated pad inside the ALHAT hazard field. Project Morpheus tests NASA’s ALHAT and an engine that runs on liquid oxygen and methane, which are green propellants. These new capabilities could be used in future efforts to deliver cargo to planetary surfaces. The landing facility provides the lander with the kind of field necessary for realistic testing, complete with rocks, craters and hazards to avoid. Morpheus’ ALHAT payload allows it to navigate to clear landing sites amidst rocks, craters and other hazards during its descent. Project Morpheus is being managed under the Advanced Exploration Systems, or AES, Division in NASA’s Human Exploration and Operations Mission Directorate. The efforts in AES pioneer new approaches for rapidly developing prototype systems, demonstrating key capabilities and validating operational concepts for future human missions beyond Earth orbit. For more information on Project Morpheus, visit http://morpheuslander.jsc.nasa.gov/. Photo credit: NASA/Kim Shiflett

Threats and opportunities for freshwater conservation under future land use change scenarios in the United States.

PubMed

Martinuzzi, Sebastián; Januchowski-Hartley, Stephanie R; Pracheil, Brenda M; McIntyre, Peter B; Plantinga, Andrew J; Lewis, David J; Radeloff, Volker C

2014-01-01

Freshwater ecosystems provide vital resources for humans and support high levels of biodiversity, yet are severely threatened throughout the world. The expansion of human land uses, such as urban and crop cover, typically degrades water quality and reduces freshwater biodiversity, thereby jeopardizing both biodiversity and ecosystem services. Identifying and mitigating future threats to freshwater ecosystems requires forecasting where land use changes are most likely. Our goal was to evaluate the potential consequences of future land use on freshwater ecosystems in the coterminous United States by comparing alternative scenarios of land use change (2001-2051) with current patterns of freshwater biodiversity and water quality risk. Using an econometric model, each of our land use scenarios projected greater changes in watersheds of the eastern half of the country, where freshwater ecosystems already experience higher stress from human activities. Future urban expansion emerged as a major threat in regions with high freshwater biodiversity (e.g., the Southeast) or severe water quality problems (e.g., the Midwest). Our scenarios reflecting environmentally oriented policies had some positive effects. Subsidizing afforestation for carbon sequestration reduced crop cover and increased natural vegetation in areas that are currently stressed by low water quality, while discouraging urban sprawl diminished urban expansion in areas of high biodiversity. On the other hand, we found that increases in crop commodity prices could lead to increased agricultural threats in areas of high freshwater biodiversity. Our analyses illustrate the potential for policy changes and market factors to influence future land use trends in certain regions of the country, with important consequences for freshwater ecosystems. Successful conservation of aquatic biodiversity and ecosystem services in the United States into the future will require attending to the potential threats and opportunities arising from policies and market changes affecting land use. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Opportunities and challenges of sustainable agricultural development in China.

PubMed

Zhao, Jingzhu; Luo, Qishan; Deng, Hongbing; Yan, Yan

2008-02-27

This paper introduces the concepts and aims of sustainable agriculture in China. Sustainable agricultural development comprises sustainability of agricultural production, sustainability of the rural economy, ecological and environmental sustainability within agricultural systems and sustainability of rural society. China's prime aim is to ensure current and future food security. Based on projections of China's population, its economy, societal factors and agricultural resources and inputs between 2000 and 2050, total grain supply and demand has been predicted and the state of food security analysed. Total and per capita demand for grain will increase continuously. Total demand will reach 648 Mt in 2020 and 700 Mt in 2050, while total grain yield of cultivated land will reach 470 Mt in 2010, 585 Mt in 2030 and 656 Mt in 2050. The per capita grain production will be around 360kg in the period 2000-2030 and reach 470kg in 2050. When productivities of cultivated land and other agricultural resources are all taken into consideration, China's food self-sufficiency ratio will increase from 94.4% in 2000 to 101.3% in 2030, suggesting that China will meet its future demand for food and need for food security. Despite this positive assessment, the country's sustainable agricultural development has encountered many obstacles. These include: agricultural water-use shortage; cultivated land loss; inappropriate usage of fertilizers and pesticides, and environmental degradation.

An open and extensible framework for spatially explicit land use change modelling in R: the lulccR package (0.1.0)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moulds, S.; Buytaert, W.; Mijic, A.

2015-04-01

Land use change has important consequences for biodiversity and the sustainability of ecosystem services, as well as for global environmental change. Spatially explicit land use change models improve our understanding of the processes driving change and make predictions about the quantity and location of future and past change. Here we present the lulccR package, an object-oriented framework for land use change modelling written in the R programming language. The contribution of the work is to resolve the following limitations associated with the current land use change modelling paradigm: (1) the source code for model implementations is frequently unavailable, severely compromising the reproducibility of scientific results and making it impossible for members of the community to improve or adapt models for their own purposes; (2) ensemble experiments to capture model structural uncertainty are difficult because of fundamental differences between implementations of different models; (3) different aspects of the modelling procedure must be performed in different environments because existing applications usually only perform the spatial allocation of change. The package includes a stochastic ordered allocation procedure as well as an implementation of the widely used CLUE-S algorithm. We demonstrate its functionality by simulating land use change at the Plum Island Ecosystems site, using a dataset included with the package. It is envisaged that lulccR will enable future model development and comparison within an open environment.

The Role of Latin America’s Land and Water Resources for Global Food Security: Environmental Trade-Offs of Future Food Production Pathways

PubMed Central

Flachsbarth, Insa; Willaarts, Bárbara; Xie, Hua; Pitois, Gauthier; Mueller, Nathaniel D.; Ringler, Claudia; Garrido, Alberto

2015-01-01

One of humanity’s major challenges of the 21st century will be meeting future food demands on an increasingly resource constrained-planet. Global food production will have to rise by 70 percent between 2000 and 2050 to meet effective demand which poses major challenges to food production systems. Doing so without compromising environmental integrity is an even greater challenge. This study looks at the interdependencies between land and water resources, agricultural production and environmental outcomes in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), an area of growing importance in international agricultural markets. Special emphasis is given to the role of LAC’s agriculture for (a) global food security and (b) environmental sustainability. We use the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT)—a global dynamic partial equilibrium model of the agricultural sector—to run different future production scenarios, and agricultural trade regimes out to 2050, and assess changes in related environmental indicators. Results indicate that further trade liberalization is crucial for improving food security globally, but that it would also lead to more environmental pressures in some regions across Latin America. Contrasting land expansion versus more intensified agriculture shows that productivity improvements are generally superior to agricultural land expansion, from an economic and environmental point of view. Finally, our analysis shows that there are trade-offs between environmental and food security goals for all agricultural development paths. PMID:25617621

The role of Latin America's land and water resources for global food security: environmental trade-offs of future food production pathways.

PubMed

Flachsbarth, Insa; Willaarts, Bárbara; Xie, Hua; Pitois, Gauthier; Mueller, Nathaniel D; Ringler, Claudia; Garrido, Alberto

2015-01-01

One of humanity's major challenges of the 21st century will be meeting future food demands on an increasingly resource constrained-planet. Global food production will have to rise by 70 percent between 2000 and 2050 to meet effective demand which poses major challenges to food production systems. Doing so without compromising environmental integrity is an even greater challenge. This study looks at the interdependencies between land and water resources, agricultural production and environmental outcomes in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), an area of growing importance in international agricultural markets. Special emphasis is given to the role of LAC's agriculture for (a) global food security and (b) environmental sustainability. We use the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT)-a global dynamic partial equilibrium model of the agricultural sector-to run different future production scenarios, and agricultural trade regimes out to 2050, and assess changes in related environmental indicators. Results indicate that further trade liberalization is crucial for improving food security globally, but that it would also lead to more environmental pressures in some regions across Latin America. Contrasting land expansion versus more intensified agriculture shows that productivity improvements are generally superior to agricultural land expansion, from an economic and environmental point of view. Finally, our analysis shows that there are trade-offs between environmental and food security goals for all agricultural development paths.

Adjusting measured peak discharges from an urbanizing watershed to reflect a stationary land use signal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beighley, R. Edward; Moglen, Glenn E.

2003-04-01

A procedure to adjust gauged streamflow data from watersheds urbanized during or after their gauging period is presented. The procedure adjusts streamflow to be representative of a fixed land use condition, which may reflect current or future development conditions. Our intent is to determine what an event resulting in a peak discharge in, for example, 1950 (i.e., before urbanization) would produce on the current urban watershed. While past approaches assumed uniform spatial and temporal changes in urbanization, this study focuses on the use of geographic information systems (GIS) based methodologies for precisely locating in space and time where land use change has occurred. This information is incorporated into a hydrologic model to simulate the change in discharge as a result of changing land use conditions. In this paper, we use historical aerial photographs, GIS linked tax-map data, and recent land use/land cover data to recreate the spatial development history of eight gauged watersheds in the Baltimore-Washington, D. C., metropolitan area. Using our procedure to determine discharge series representative of the current urban watersheds, we found that the increase of the adjusted 2-year discharge ranged from 16 to 70 percent compared with the measured annual maximum discharge series. For the 100-year discharge the adjusted values ranged from 0 to 47 percent greater than the measured values. Additionally, relationships between the increase in flood flows and four measures of urbanization (increase in urban land, decrease in forested land, increase in high-density development, and the spatial development pattern) are investigated for predicting the increase in flood flows for ungauged watersheds. Watersheds with the largest increases in flood flows typically had more extensive development in the areas far removed from the outlet. In contrast, watersheds with development located nearer to the outlet typically had the smallest increases in peak discharge.

National housing and impervious surface scenarios for integrated climate impact assessments

PubMed Central

Bierwagen, Britta G.; Theobald, David M.; Pyke, Christopher R.; Choate, Anne; Groth, Philip; Thomas, John V.; Morefield, Philip

2010-01-01

Understanding the impacts of climate change on people and the environment requires an understanding of the dynamics of both climate and land use/land cover changes. A range of future climate scenarios is available for the conterminous United States that have been developed based on widely used international greenhouse gas emissions storylines. Climate scenarios derived from these emissions storylines have not been matched with logically consistent land use/cover maps for the United States. This gap is a critical barrier to conducting effective integrated assessments. This study develops novel national scenarios of housing density and impervious surface cover that are logically consistent with emissions storylines. Analysis of these scenarios suggests that combinations of climate and land use/cover can be important in determining environmental conditions regulated under the Clean Air and Clean Water Acts. We found significant differences in patterns of habitat loss and the distribution of potentially impaired watersheds among scenarios, indicating that compact development patterns can reduce habitat loss and the number of impaired watersheds. These scenarios are also associated with lower global greenhouse gas emissions and, consequently, the potential to reduce both the drivers of anthropogenic climate change and the impacts of changing conditions. The residential housing and impervious surface datasets provide a substantial first step toward comprehensive national land use/land cover scenarios, which have broad applicability for integrated assessments as these data and tools are publicly available. PMID:21078956

An approach to enhance the conservation-compatibility of solar energy development.

PubMed

Cameron, D Richard; Cohen, Brian S; Morrison, Scott A

2012-01-01

The rapid pace of climate change poses a major threat to biodiversity. Utility-scale renewable energy development (>1 MW capacity) is a key strategy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, but development of those facilities also can have adverse effects on biodiversity. Here, we examine the synergy between renewable energy generation goals and those for biodiversity conservation in the 13 M ha Mojave Desert of the southwestern USA. We integrated spatial data on biodiversity conservation value, solar energy potential, and land surface slope angle (a key determinant of development feasibility) and found there to be sufficient area to meet renewable energy goals without developing on lands of relatively high conservation value. Indeed, we found nearly 200,000 ha of lower conservation value land below the most restrictive slope angle (<1%); that area could meet the state of California's current 33% renewable energy goal 1.8 times over. We found over 740,000 ha below the highest slope angle (<5%)--an area that can meet California's renewable energy goal seven times over. Our analysis also suggests that the supply of high quality habitat on private land may be insufficient to mitigate impacts from future solar projects, so enhancing public land management may need to be considered among the options to offset such impacts. Using the approach presented here, planners could reduce development impacts on areas of higher conservation value, and so reduce trade-offs between converting to a green energy economy and conserving biodiversity.

An Approach to Enhance the Conservation-Compatibility of Solar Energy Development

PubMed Central

Cameron, D. Richard; Cohen, Brian S.; Morrison, Scott A.

2012-01-01

The rapid pace of climate change poses a major threat to biodiversity. Utility-scale renewable energy development (>1 MW capacity) is a key strategy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, but development of those facilities also can have adverse effects on biodiversity. Here, we examine the synergy between renewable energy generation goals and those for biodiversity conservation in the 13 M ha Mojave Desert of the southwestern USA. We integrated spatial data on biodiversity conservation value, solar energy potential, and land surface slope angle (a key determinant of development feasibility) and found there to be sufficient area to meet renewable energy goals without developing on lands of relatively high conservation value. Indeed, we found nearly 200,000 ha of lower conservation value land below the most restrictive slope angle (<1%); that area could meet the state of California’s current 33% renewable energy goal 1.8 times over. We found over 740,000 ha below the highest slope angle (<5%) – an area that can meet California’s renewable energy goal seven times over. Our analysis also suggests that the supply of high quality habitat on private land may be insufficient to mitigate impacts from future solar projects, so enhancing public land management may need to be considered among the options to offset such impacts. Using the approach presented here, planners could reduce development impacts on areas of higher conservation value, and so reduce trade-offs between converting to a green energy economy and conserving biodiversity. PMID:22685568

Coherent Doppler Lidar for Precision Navigation of Spacecrafts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Amzajerdian, Farzin; Pierrottet, Diego; Petway, Larry; Hines, Glenn; Lockhard, George; Barnes, Bruce

2011-01-01

A fiber-based coherent Doppler lidar, utilizing an FMCW technique, has been developed and its capabilities demonstrated through two successful helicopter flight test campaigns. This Doppler lidar is expected to play a critical role in future planetary exploration missions because of its ability in providing the necessary data for soft landing on the planetary bodies and for landing missions requiring precision navigation to the designated location on the ground. Compared with radars, the Doppler lidar can provide significantly higher precision velocity and altitude data at a much higher rate without concerns for measurement ambiguity or target clutter. Future work calls for testing the Doppler lidar onboard a rocket-powered free-flyer platform operating in a closed-loop with the vehicle s guidance, navigation, and control (GN&C) unit.

Tradeoffs among carbon, biodiversity, and economic returns for future land-use scenarios in the conterminous United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pennington, D. N.; Nelson, E.; Polasky, S.; Plantinga, A.; Lewis, D.; Whithey, J.; Radeloff, V.; Lawler, J.; White, D.; Martinuzzi, S.; Helmers, D.; Lonsdorf, E.

2011-12-01

Land-use change significantly contributes to biodiversity loss, changes ecosystem processes, and causes ultimately the loss of ecosystem services. Planning for a sustainable future requires a thorough understanding of expected future land use at both the fine-spatial scale relevant for many ecological processes and at the larger regional levels relevant for large-scale policy making. We use an econometric model to predict business as usual land-use change across the continental US with 100-m resolution in 5-year time steps from 2001 to 2051. We then simulate the affect of various national-level tax, subsidy, and zoning policies on expected land-use change over this time frame. Further, we model the impact of projected land-use change under business as usual and the various policy scenarios on carbon sequestration and biodiversity conservation in the conterminous United States. Our results showed that overall, land use composition will remain fairly stable, but there are considerable regional changes. Differences among policy scenarios were relatively minor highlighting that the underlying economic drivers of land use patterns are strong, and even fairly drastic policies may not be able to change these.

Projecting Future Urbanization with Prescott College's Spatial Growth Model to Promote Environmental Sustainability and Smart Growth, A Case Study in Atlanta, Georgia

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Estes, Maurice G., Jr.; Crosson, William; Limaye, Ashutosh; Johnson, Hoyt; Quattrochi, Dale; Lapenta, William; Khan, Maudood

2006-01-01

Planning is an integral element of good management and necessary to anticipate events not merely respond to them. Projecting the quantity and spatial distribution of urban growth is essential to effectively plan for the delivery of city services and to evaluate potential environmental impacts. The major drivers of growth in large urban areas are increasing population, employment opportunities, and quality of life attractors such as a favorable climate and recreation opportunities. The spatial distribution of urban growth is dictated by the amount and location of developable land, topography, energy and water resources, transportation network, climate change, and the existing land use configuration. The Atlanta region is growing very rapidly both in population and the consumption of forestland or low-density residential development. Air pollution and water availability are significant ongoing environmental issues. The Prescott Spatial Growth Model (SGM) was used to make growth projections for the metropolitan Atlanta region to 2010,2020 and 2030 and results used for environmental assessment in both business as usual and smart growth scenarios. The Prescott SGM is a tool that uses an ESRI ArcView extension and can be applied at the parcel level or more coarse spatial scales and can accommodate a wide range of user inputs to develop any number of growth rules each of which can be weighted depending on growth assumptions. These projections were used in conjunction with meteorological and air quality models to evaluate future environmental impacts. This presentation will focus on the application of the SGM to the 13-County Atlanta Regional Commission planning jurisdiction as a case study. The SGM will be described, including how rule sets are developed and the decision process for allocation of future development to available land use categories. Data inputs required to effectively run the model will be discussed. Spatial growth projections for ten, twenty, and thirty year planning horizons will be presented and results discussed, including regional climate and air quality impacts.

Through the eyes of children: perceptions of environmental change in tropical forests.

PubMed

Pellier, Anne-Sophie; Wells, Jessie A; Abram, Nicola K; Gaveau, David; Meijaard, Erik

2014-01-01

This study seeks to understand children's perceptions of their present and future environments in the highly biodiverse and rapidly changing landscapes of Kalimantan, Indonesian Borneo. We analyzed drawings by children (target age 10-15 years) from 22 villages, which show how children perceive the present conditions of forests and wildlife surrounding their villages and how they expect conditions to change over the next 15 years. Analyses of picture elements and their relationships to current landscape variables indicate that children have a sophisticated understanding of their environment and how different environmental factors interact, either positively or negatively. Children appear to have landscape-dependent environmental perceptions, showing awareness of past environmental conditions and many aspects of recent trends, and translating these into predictions for future environmental conditions. The further removed their present landscape is from the originally forested one, the more environmental change they expect in the future, particularly declines in forest cover, rivers, animal diversity and increases in temperature and natural disasters. This suggests that loss of past perceptions and associated "shifting environmental baselines" do not feature strongly among children on Borneo, at least not for the perceptions we investigated here. Our findings that children have negative expectations of their future environmental conditions have important political implications. More than other generations, children have a stake in ensuring that future environmental conditions support their long-term well-being. Understanding what drives environmental views among children, and how they consider trade-offs between economic development and social and environmental change, should inform optimal policies on land use. Our study illuminates part of the complex interplay between perceptions of land cover and land use change. Capturing the views of children through artistic expressions provides a potentially powerful tool to influence public and political opinions, as well as a valuable approach for developing localized education and nature conservation programs.

Through the Eyes of Children: Perceptions of Environmental Change in Tropical Forests

PubMed Central

Pellier, Anne-Sophie; Wells, Jessie A.; Abram, Nicola K.; Gaveau, David; Meijaard, Erik

2014-01-01

This study seeks to understand children's perceptions of their present and future environments in the highly biodiverse and rapidly changing landscapes of Kalimantan, Indonesian Borneo. We analyzed drawings by children (target age 10–15 years) from 22 villages, which show how children perceive the present conditions of forests and wildlife surrounding their villages and how they expect conditions to change over the next 15 years. Analyses of picture elements and their relationships to current landscape variables indicate that children have a sophisticated understanding of their environment and how different environmental factors interact, either positively or negatively. Children appear to have landscape-dependent environmental perceptions, showing awareness of past environmental conditions and many aspects of recent trends, and translating these into predictions for future environmental conditions. The further removed their present landscape is from the originally forested one, the more environmental change they expect in the future, particularly declines in forest cover, rivers, animal diversity and increases in temperature and natural disasters. This suggests that loss of past perceptions and associated “shifting environmental baselines” do not feature strongly among children on Borneo, at least not for the perceptions we investigated here. Our findings that children have negative expectations of their future environmental conditions have important political implications. More than other generations, children have a stake in ensuring that future environmental conditions support their long-term well-being. Understanding what drives environmental views among children, and how they consider trade-offs between economic development and social and environmental change, should inform optimal policies on land use. Our study illuminates part of the complex interplay between perceptions of land cover and land use change. Capturing the views of children through artistic expressions provides a potentially powerful tool to influence public and political opinions, as well as a valuable approach for developing localized education and nature conservation programs. PMID:25093658

Modeled historical land use and land cover for the conterminous United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sohl, Terry L.; Reker, Ryan R.; Bouchard, Michelle A.; Sayler, Kristi L.; Dornbierer, Jordan; Wika, Steve; Quenzer, Robert; Friesz, Aaron M.

2016-01-01

The landscape of the conterminous United States has changed dramatically over the last 200 years, with agricultural land use, urban expansion, forestry, and other anthropogenic activities altering land cover across vast swaths of the country. While land use and land cover (LULC) models have been developed to model potential future LULC change, few efforts have focused on recreating historical landscapes. Researchers at the US Geological Survey have used a wide range of historical data sources and a spatially explicit modeling framework to model spatially explicit historical LULC change in the conterminous United States from 1992 back to 1938. Annual LULC maps were produced at 250-m resolution, with 14 LULC classes. Assessment of model results showed good agreement with trends and spatial patterns in historical data sources such as the Census of Agriculture and historical housing density data, although comparison with historical data is complicated by definitional and methodological differences. The completion of this dataset allows researchers to assess historical LULC impacts on a range of ecological processes.

Guidance, Navigation, and Control Technology Assessment for Future Planetary Science Missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Beauchamp, Pat; Cutts, James; Quadrelli, Marco B.; Wood, Lincoln J.; Riedel, Joseph E.; McHenry, Mike; Aung, MiMi; Cangahuala, Laureano A.; Volpe, Rich

2013-01-01

Future planetary explorations envisioned by the National Research Council's (NRC's) report titled Vision and Voyages for Planetary Science in the Decade 2013-2022, developed for NASA Science Mission Directorate (SMD) Planetary Science Division (PSD), seek to reach targets of broad scientific interest across the solar system. This goal requires new capabilities such as innovative interplanetary trajectories, precision landing, operation in close proximity to targets, precision pointing, multiple collaborating spacecraft, multiple target tours, and advanced robotic surface exploration. Advancements in Guidance, Navigation, and Control (GN&C) and Mission Design in the areas of software, algorithm development and sensors will be necessary to accomplish these future missions. This paper summarizes the key GN&C and mission design capabilities and technologies needed for future missions pursuing SMD PSD's scientific goals.

Conformal Ablative Thermal Protection System for Planetary and Human Exploration Missions: Overview of the Technology Maturation Efforts Funded by NASA's Game Changing Development Program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Beck, Robin A.; Arnold, James O.; Gasch, Matthew J.; Stackpoole, Margaret M.; Fan, Wendy; Szalai, Christine E.; Wercinski, Paul F.; Venkatapathy, Ethiraj

2012-01-01

The Office of Chief Technologist (OCT), NASA has identified the need for research and technology development in part from NASA's Strategic Goal 3.3 of the NASA Strategic Plan to develop and demonstrate the critical technologies that will make NASA's exploration, science, and discovery missions more affordable and more capable. Furthermore, the Game Changing Development Program (GCDP) is a primary avenue to achieve the Agency's 2011 strategic goal to "Create the innovative new space technologies for our exploration, science, and economic future." In addition, recently released "NASA space Technology Roadmaps and Priorities," by the National Research Council (NRC) of the National Academy of Sciences stresses the need for NASA to invest in the very near term in specific EDL technologies. The report points out the following challenges (Page 2-38 of the pre-publication copy released on February 1, 2012): Mass to Surface: Develop the ability to deliver more payload to the destination. NASA's future missions will require ever-greater mass delivery capability in order to place scientifically significant instrument packages on distant bodies of interest, to facilitate sample returns from bodies of interest, and to enable human exploration of planets such as Mars. As the maximum mass that can be delivered to an entry interface is fixed for a given launch system and trajectory design, the mass delivered to the surface will require reduction in spacecraft structural mass; more efficient, lighter thermal protection systems; more efficient lighter propulsion systems; and lighter, more efficient deceleration systems. Surface Access: Increase the ability to land at a variety of planetary locales and at a variety of times. Access to specific sites can be achieved via landing at a specific location (s) or transit from a single designated landing location, but it is currently infeasible to transit long distances and through extremely rugged terrain, requiring landing close to the site of interest. The entry environment is not always guaranteed with a direct entry, and improving the entry system's robustness to a variety of environmental conditions could aid in reaching more varied landing sites."

Modeling the potential persistence of various ecological systems under CMIP5 future climate and land use scenarios throughout California, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baker, B.; Ferschweiler, K.; Bachelet, D. M.; Sleeter, B. M.

2016-12-01

California's geographic location, topographic complexity and latitudinal climatic gradient give rise to great biological and ecological diversity. However, increased land use pressure, altered seasonal weather patterns, and changes in temperature and precipitation regimes are having pronounced effects on ecosystems and the multitude of services they provide for an increasing population. As a result, natural resource managers are faced with formidable challenges to maintain these critical services. The goals of this project were to better understand how projected 21st century climate and land-use change scenarios may alter ecosystem dynamics, the spatial distribution of various vegetation types and land-use patterns, and to provide a coarse scale "triage map" of where land managers may want to concentrate efforts to reduce ecological stress in order to mitigate the potential impacts of a changing climate. We used the MC2 dynamic global vegetation model and the LUCAS state-and-transition simulation model to simulate the potential effects of future climate and land-use change on ecological processes for the state of California. Historical climate data were obtained from the PRISM dataset and nine CMIP5 climate models were run for the RCP 8.5 scenario. Climate projections were combined with a business-as-usual land-use scenario based on local-scale land use histories. For ease of discussion, results from five simulation runs (historic, hot-dry, hot-wet, warm-dry, and warm-wet) are presented. Results showed large changes in the extent of urban and agricultural lands. In addition, several simulated potential vegetation types persisted in situ under all four future scenarios, although alterations in total area, total ecosystem carbon, and forest vigor (NPP/LAI) were noted. As might be expected, the majority of the forested types that persisted occurred on public lands. However, more than 78% of the simulated subtropical mixed forest and 26% of temperate evergreen needleleaf forest types persisted on private lands under all four future scenarios. Result suggest that building collaborations across management borders could be valuable tool to guide natural resource management actions into the future.

Impacts of climate and land use changes on regional nutrient export in the South Saskatchewan River catchment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morales-Marin, L. A.; Wheater, H. S.; Lindenschmidt, K. E.

2016-12-01

Climate and land use changes modify the physical functioning of river catchments and, in particular, influence the transport of nutrients from land to water. In large-scale catchments, where a variety of climates, topographies, soil types and land uses co-exist to form a highly heterogeneous environment, a more complex nutrient dynamic is imposed by climate and land use changes. This is the case of the South Saskatchewan River (SSR) that, along with the North Saskatchewan River, forms the largest river system in western Canada. In the past years changes in the land use and new industrial developments in the SSR area have heightened serious concerns about the future of water quality in the catchment and downstream waters. Agricultural activities have increased the supply of manure and fertilizer for cropping. Oil and gas exploitation has also increased the risk of surface water and groundwater contamination. The rapid population growth not only leads to increments in water consumption and wastewater, but in the construction of roads, railways and the expansion of new urban developments that impose hydraulic controls on the catchment hydrology and therefore the sediment and nutrient transport. Consequences of the actual anthropogenic changes have been notorious in reservoirs where algal blooms and signs of eutrophication have become common during certain times of the year. Although environmental agencies are constantly improving the mechanisms to reduce nutrient export into the river and ensure safe water quality standards, further research is needed in order to identify major nutrient sources and quantify nutrient export and also, to assess how nutrients are going to vary as a result of future climate and land use change scenarios. The SPAtially Referenced Regression On Watershed (SPARROW) model is therefore implemented to assess water quality regionally, in order to describe spatial and temporal patterns to identify those factors and processes that affect water quality. Climate and land uses change scenarios are incorporated into the model to explain how nutrient export will vary across the catchment in 30, 60 and 90 years from now. Uncertainty of nutrient predictions is also assesses in order to determine the degree of reliability of the estimates.

Impacts of climate and land use changes on regional nutrient export in the South Saskatchewan River catchment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morales-Marin, L. A.; Wheater, H. S.; Lindenschmidt, K. E.

2015-12-01

Climate and land use changes modify the physical functioning of river catchments and, in particular, influence the transport of nutrients from land to water. In large-scale catchments, where a variety of climates, topographies, soil types and land uses co-exist to form a highly heterogeneous environment, a more complex nutrient dynamic is imposed by climate and land use changes. This is the case of the South Saskatchewan River (SSR) that, along with the North Saskatchewan River, forms the largest river system in western Canada. In the past years changes in the land use and new industrial developments in the SSR area have heightened serious concerns about the future of water quality in the catchment and downstream waters. Agricultural activities have increased the supply of manure and fertilizer for cropping. Oil and gas exploitation has also increased the risk of surface water and groundwater contamination. The rapid population growth not only leads to increments in water consumption and wastewater, but in the construction of roads, railways and the expansion of new urban developments that impose hydraulic controls on the catchment hydrology and therefore the sediment and nutrient transport. Consequences of the actual anthropogenic changes have been notorious in reservoirs where algal blooms and signs of eutrophication have become common during certain times of the year. Although environmental agencies are constantly improving the mechanisms to reduce nutrient export into the river and ensure safe water quality standards, further research is needed in order to identify major nutrient sources and quantify nutrient export and also, to assess how nutrients are going to vary as a result of future climate and land use change scenarios. The SPAtially Referenced Regression On Watershed (SPARROW) model is therefore implemented to assess water quality regionally, in order to describe spatial and temporal patterns to identify those factors and processes that affect water quality. Climate and land uses change scenarios are incorporated into the model to explain how nutrient export will vary across the catchment in 30, 60 and 90 years from now. Uncertainty of nutrient predictions is also assesses in order to determine the degree of reliability of the estimates.

Future scenarios of impacts to ecosystem services on California rangelands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Byrd, Kristin; Alvarez, Pelayo; Flint, Lorraine; Flint, Alan

2014-01-01

The 18 million acres of rangelands in the Central Valley of California provide multiple benefits or “ecosystem services” to people—including wildlife habitat, water supply, open space, recreation, and cultural resources. Most of this land is privately owned and managed for livestock production. These rangelands are vulnerable to land-use conversion and climate change. To help resource managers assess the impacts of land-use change and climate change, U.S. Geological Survey scientists and their cooperators developed scenarios to quantify and map changes to three main rangeland ecosystem services—wildlife habitat, water supply, and carbon sequestration. Project results will help prioritize strategies to conserve these rangelands and the ecosystem services that they provide.

Proposal and Research Direction of Soil Mass Organic Reorganization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Lu; Han, Jichang

2018-01-01

Land engineering as a new discipline has been temporarily outrageous. The proposition of soil body organic reorganization undoubtedly enriches the research content for the construction of land engineering disciplines. Soil body organic reconstruction is designed to study how to realize the ecological ecology of the land by studying the external force of nature, to study the influence of sunlight, wind and water on soil body, how to improve the soil physical structure, to further strengthen the research of biological enzymes and microbes, and promote the release and utilization of beneficial inert elements in soil body. The emerging of frontier scientific research issues with soil body organic reorganization to indicate directions for the future development of soil engineering.

Application of the ACASA model for urban development studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marras, S.; Pyles, R. D.; Falk, M.; Snyder, R. L.; Paw U, K. T.; Blecic, I.; Trunfio, G. A.; Cecchini, A.; Spano, D.

2012-04-01

Since urban population is growing fast and urban areas are recognized as the major source of CO2 emissions, more attention has being dedicated to the topic of urban sustainability and its connection with the climate. Urban flows of energy, water and carbon have an important impact on climate change and their quantification is pivotal in the city design and management. Large effort has been devoted to quantitative estimates of the urban metabolism components, and several advanced models have been developed and used at different spatial and temporal scales for this purpose. However, it is necessary to develop suitable tools and indicators to effectively support urban planning and management with the goal of achieving a more sustainable metabolism in the urban environment. In this study, the multilayer model ACASA (Advanced Canopy-Atmosphere-Soil Algorithm) was chosen to simulate the exchanges of heat, water vapour and CO2 within and above urban canopy. After several calibration and evaluation tests over natural and agricultural ecosystems, the model was recently modified for application in urban and peri-urban areas. New equations to account for the anthropogenic contribution to heat exchange and carbon production, as well as key parameterizations of leaf-facet scale interactions to separate both biogenic and anthropogenic flux sources and sinks, were added to test changes in land use or urban planning strategies. The analysis was based on the evaluation of the ACASA model performance in estimating urban metabolism components at local scale. Simulated sensible heat, latent heat, and carbon fluxes were compared with in situ Eddy Covariance measurements collected in the city centre of Florence (Italy). Statistical analysis was performed to test the model accuracy and reliability. Model sensitivity to soil types and increased population density values was conducted to investigate the potential use of ACASA for evaluating the impact of planning alternative scenarios. In this contest, an in progress application of ACASA for estimating carbon exchanges alternative scenarios is represented by its integration in a software framework composed by: (i) a Cellular Automata model to simulate the urban land-use dynamics; (ii) a transportation model, able to estimate the variation of the transportation network load; (iii) the ACASA model, and (iv) the mesoscale weather model WRF for the estimation of the relevant urban metabolism components at regional scale. The CA module is able to produce future land use maps, which represent a spatial distribution of the aggregate land-use demand consistent with the main rules governing the functioning of an urban system. Such future land use maps, together with the street network including the current traffic data, are used by the transportation module for estimating future traffic data coherent with the assumed land uses trends. All these information are then used by the coupled model WRF-ACASA for estimating future maps of CO2 fluxes in the urban area under consideration, allowing to estimate the impact of future planning strategies in reducing C emissions. The in-progress application of this system to the city of Florence is presented here.

Integrated assessment of the impact of climate and land use changes on groundwater quantity and quality in the Mancha Oriental system (Spain)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pulido-Velazquez, M.; Peña-Haro, S.; García-Prats, A.; Mocholi-Almudever, A. F.; Henriquez-Dole, L.; Macian-Sorribes, H.; Lopez-Nicolas, A.

2015-04-01

Climate and land use change (global change) impacts on groundwater systems cannot be studied in isolation. Land use and land cover (LULC) changes have a great impact on the water cycle and contaminant production and transport. Groundwater flow and storage are changing in response not only to climatic changes but also to human impacts on land uses and demands, which will alter the hydrologic cycle and subsequently impact the quantity and quality of regional water systems. Predicting groundwater recharge and discharge conditions under future climate and land use changes is essential for integrated water management and adaptation. In the Mancha Oriental system (MOS), one of the largest groundwater bodies in Spain, the transformation from dry to irrigated lands during the last decades has led to a significant drop of the groundwater table, with the consequent effect on stream-aquifer interaction in the connected Jucar River. Understanding the spatial and temporal distribution of water quantity and water quality is essential for a proper management of the system. On the one hand, streamflow depletion is compromising the dependent ecosystems and the supply to the downstream demands, provoking a complex management issue. On the other hand, the intense use of fertilizer in agriculture is leading to locally high groundwater nitrate concentrations. In this paper we analyze the potential impacts of climate and land use change in the system by using an integrated modeling framework that consists in sequentially coupling a watershed agriculturally based hydrological model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool, SWAT) with a groundwater flow model developed in MODFLOW, and with a nitrate mass-transport model in MT3DMS. SWAT model outputs (mainly groundwater recharge and pumping, considering new irrigation needs under changing evapotranspiration (ET) and precipitation) are used as MODFLOW inputs to simulate changes in groundwater flow and storage and impacts on stream-aquifer interaction. SWAT and MODFLOW outputs (nitrate loads from SWAT, groundwater velocity field from MODFLOW) are used as MT3DMS inputs for assessing the fate and transport of nitrate leached from the topsoil. Three climate change scenarios have been considered, corresponding to three different general circulation models (GCMs) for emission scenario A1B that covers the control period, and short-, medium- and long-term future periods. A multi-temporal analysis of LULC change was carried out, helped by the study of historical trends (from remote-sensing images) and key driving forces to explain LULC transitions. Markov chains and European scenarios and projections were used to quantify trends in the future. The cellular automata technique was applied for stochastic modeling future LULC maps. Simulated values of river discharge, crop yields, groundwater levels and nitrate concentrations fit well to the observed ones. The results show the response of groundwater quantity and quality (nitrate pollution) to climate and land use changes, with decreasing groundwater recharge and an increase in nitrate concentrations. The sequential modeling chain has been proven to be a valuable assessment tool for supporting the development of sustainable management strategies.

Introduction to Japanese exploration study to the moon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hashimoto, T.; Hoshino, T.; Tanaka, S.; Otake, H.; Otsuki, M.; Wakabayashi, S.; Morimoto, H.; Masuda, K.

2014-11-01

The Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) views the lunar lander SELENE-2 as the successor to the SELENE mission. In this presentation, the mission objectives of SELENE-2 are shown together with the present design status of the spacecraft. JAXA launched the Kaguya (SELENE) lunar orbiter in September 2007, and the spacecraft observed the Moon and a couple of small satellites using 15 instruments. As the next step in lunar exploration, the lunar lander SELENE-2 is being considered. SELENE-2 will land on the lunar surface and perform in-situ scientific observations, environmental investigations, and research for future lunar utilization including human activity. At the same time, it will demonstrate key technologies for lunar and planetary exploration such as precise and safe landing, surface mobility, and overnight survival. The lander will carry laser altimeters, image sensors, and landing radars for precise and safe landing. Landing legs and a precisely controlled propulsion system will also be developed. A rover is being designed to be able to travel over a wide area and observe featured terrain using scientific instruments. Since some of the instruments require long-term observation on the lunar surface, technology for night survival over more than 2 weeks needs to be considered. The SELENE-2 technologies are expected to be one of the stepping stones towards future Japanese human activities on the moon and to expand the possibilities for deep space science.

Urban transformation of a metropolis and its environmental impacts: a case study in Shanghai.

PubMed

Tian, Zhan; Cao, Guiying; Shi, Jun; McCallum, Ian; Cui, Linli; Fan, Dongli; Li, Xinhu

2012-06-01

The aim of this paper is to understand the sustainability of urban spatial transformation in the process of rapid urbanization, and calls for future research on the demographic and economic dimensions of climate change. Shanghai towards its transformation to a metropolis has experienced vast socioeconomic and ecological change and calls for future research on the impacts of demographic and economic dimensions on climate change. We look at the major questions (1) to explore economic and demographic growth, land use and land-cover changes in the context of rapid economic and city growth, and (2) to analyze how the demography and economic growth have been associated with the local air temperature and vegetation. We examine urban growth, land use and land-cover changes in the context of rapid economic development and urbanization. We assess the impact of urban expansion on local air temperature and vegetation. The analysis is based on time series data of land use, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and meteorological, demographic and economic data. The results indicate that urban growth has been driven by mass immigration; as a consequence of economic growth and urban expansion, a large amount of farmland has been converted to paved road and residential buildings. Furthermore, the difference between air temperature in urban and exurban areas has increased rapidly. The decrease of high mean annual NDVI has mainly occurred around the dense urban areas.

A GIS Inventory of Critical Coastal Infrastructure Land Use in Caribbean Island Small Island Developing States: Classification and Criteria Methodology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

D'aversa, N.; Becker, A.; Bove, G.

2017-12-01

Caribbean Small Island Developing States (SIDS) face significant natural hazard risks, as demonstrated by recent Hurricanes Jose, Irma, and Maria. Scientists project storms to become more intense and sea level rise to increase over the next century. As a result, the Inter-American Development Bank projections suggest that Caribbean nations could face climate-related losses in excess of $22 billion annually by 2050. Critical infrastructure that supports island economies, such as airports, seaports, cruise ports, and energy facilities, are typically located in the coastal zone with high exposure to natural hazards. Despite the increasing danger from climate driven natural hazards in coastal zones in the region, there is very little data available to identify how much land and associated infrastructure is at risk. This work focuses on the criteria and data standards developed for this new region-wide GIS database, which will then be used to formulate a risk assessment. Results will be integrated into a single, comprehensive source for data of lands identified as critical coastal infrastructure and used to address such questions as: How much of the Caribbean SIDS infrastructure lands are at risk from sea level rise? How might demand for such lands change in the future, based on historical trends? Answers to these questions will help decision makers understand how to prioritize resilience investment decisions in the coming decades.