Fabrication of the HIAD Large-Scale Demonstration Assembly

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Swanson, G. T.; Johnson, R. K.; Hughes, S. J.; DiNonno, J. M.; Cheatwood, F. M.

2017-01-01

Over a decade of work has been conducted in the development of NASA's Hypersonic Inflatable Aerodynamic Decelerator (HIAD) technology. This effort has included multiple ground test campaigns and flight tests culminating in the HIAD projects second generation (Gen-2) deployable aeroshell system and associated analytical tools. NASAs HIAD project team has developed, fabricated, and tested inflatable structures (IS) integrated with flexible thermal protection system (F-TPS), ranging in diameters from 3-6m, with cone angles of 60 and 70 deg.In 2015, United Launch Alliance (ULA) announced that they will use a HIAD (10-12m) as part of their Sensible, Modular, Autonomous Return Technology (SMART) for their upcoming Vulcan rocket. ULA expects SMART reusability, coupled with other advancements for Vulcan, will substantially reduce the cost of access to space. The first booster engine recovery via HIAD is scheduled for 2024. To meet this near-term need, as well as future NASA applications, the HIAD team is investigating taking the technology to the 10-15m diameter scale. In the last year, many significant development and fabrication efforts have been accomplished, culminating in the construction of a large-scale inflatable structure demonstration assembly. This assembly incorporated the first three tori for a 12m Mars Human-Scale Pathfinder HIAD conceptual design that was constructed with the current state of the art material set. Numerous design trades and torus fabrication demonstrations preceded this effort. In 2016, three large-scale tori (0.61m cross-section) and six subscale tori (0.25m cross-section) were manufactured to demonstrate fabrication techniques using the newest candidate material sets. These tori were tested to evaluate durability and load capacity. This work led to the selection of the inflatable structures third generation (Gen-3) structural liner. In late 2016, the three tori required for the large-scale demonstration assembly were fabricated, and then integrated in early 2017. The design includes provisions to add the remaining four tori necessary to complete the assembly of the 12m Human-Scale Pathfinder HIAD in the event future project funding becomes available.This presentation will discuss the HIAD large-scale demonstration assembly design and fabrication per-formed in the last year including the precursor tori development and the partial-stack fabrication. Potential near-term and future 10-15m HIAD applications will also be discussed.

Future projection of Indian summer monsoon variability under climate change scenario: An assessment from CMIP5 climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharmila, S.; Joseph, S.; Sahai, A. K.; Abhilash, S.; Chattopadhyay, R.

2015-01-01

In this study, the impact of enhanced anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions on the possible future changes in different aspects of daily-to-interannual variability of Indian summer monsoon (ISM) is systematically assessed using 20 coupled models participated in the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5. The historical (1951-1999) and future (2051-2099) simulations under the strongest Representative Concentration Pathway have been analyzed for this purpose. A few reliable models are selected based on their competence in simulating the basic features of present-climate ISM variability. The robust and consistent projections across the selected models suggest substantial changes in the ISM variability by the end of 21st century indicating strong sensitivity of ISM to global warming. On the seasonal scale, the all-India summer monsoon mean rainfall is likely to increase moderately in future, primarily governed by enhanced thermodynamic conditions due to atmospheric warming, but slightly offset by weakened large scale monsoon circulation. It is projected that the rainfall magnitude will increase over core monsoon zone in future climate, along with lengthening of the season due to late withdrawal. On interannual timescales, it is speculated that severity and frequency of both strong monsoon (SM) and weak monsoon (WM) might increase noticeably in future climate. Substantial changes in the daily variability of ISM are also projected, which are largely associated with the increase in heavy rainfall events and decrease in both low rain-rate and number of wet days during future monsoon. On the subseasonal scale, the model projections depict considerable amplification of higher frequency (below 30 day mode) components; although the dominant northward propagating 30-70 day mode of monsoon intraseasonal oscillations may not change appreciably in a warmer climate. It is speculated that the enhanced high frequency mode of monsoon ISOs due to increased GHG induced warming may notably modulate the ISM rainfall in future climate. Both extreme wet and dry episodes are likely to intensify and regionally extend in future climate with enhanced propensity of short active and long break spells. The SM (WM) could also be more wet (dry) in future due to the increment in longer active (break) spells. However, future changes in the spatial pattern during active/break phase of SM and WM are geographically inconsistent among the models. The results point out the growing climate-related vulnerability over Indian subcontinent, and further suggest the requisite of profound adaptation measures and better policy making in future.

Spatially distributed potential evapotranspiration modeling and climate projections.

PubMed

Gharbia, Salem S; Smullen, Trevor; Gill, Laurence; Johnston, Paul; Pilla, Francesco

2018-08-15

Evapotranspiration integrates energy and mass transfer between the Earth's surface and atmosphere and is the most active mechanism linking the atmosphere, hydrosphsophere, lithosphere and biosphere. This study focuses on the fine resolution modeling and projection of spatially distributed potential evapotranspiration on the large catchment scale as response to climate change. Six potential evapotranspiration designed algorithms, systematically selected based on a structured criteria and data availability, have been applied and then validated to long-term mean monthly data for the Shannon River catchment with a 50m 2 cell size. The best validated algorithm was therefore applied to evaluate the possible effect of future climate change on potential evapotranspiration rates. Spatially distributed potential evapotranspiration projections have been modeled based on climate change projections from multi-GCM ensembles for three future time intervals (2020, 2050 and 2080) using a range of different Representative Concentration Pathways producing four scenarios for each time interval. Finally, seasonal results have been compared to baseline results to evaluate the impact of climate change on the potential evapotranspiration and therefor on the catchment dynamical water balance. The results present evidence that the modeled climate change scenarios would have a significant impact on the future potential evapotranspiration rates. All the simulated scenarios predicted an increase in potential evapotranspiration for each modeled future time interval, which would significantly affect the dynamical catchment water balance. This study addresses the gap in the literature of using GIS-based algorithms to model fine-scale spatially distributed potential evapotranspiration on the large catchment systems based on climatological observations and simulations in different climatological zones. Providing fine-scale potential evapotranspiration data is very crucial to assess the dynamical catchment water balance to setup management scenarios for the water abstractions. This study illustrates a transferable systematic method to design GIS-based algorithms to simulate spatially distributed potential evapotranspiration on the large catchment systems. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Impacts of Changing Climatic Drivers and Land use features on Future Stormwater Runoff in the Northwest Florida Basin: A Large-Scale Hydrologic Modeling Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khan, M.; Abdul-Aziz, O. I.

2017-12-01

Potential changes in climatic drivers and land cover features can significantly influence the stormwater budget in the Northwest Florida Basin. We investigated the hydro-climatic and land use sensitivities of stormwater runoff by developing a large-scale process-based rainfall-runoff model for the large basin by using the EPA Storm Water Management Model (SWMM 5.1). Climatic and hydrologic variables, as well as land use/cover features were incorporated into the model to account for the key processes of coastal hydrology and its dynamic interactions with groundwater and sea levels. We calibrated and validated the model by historical daily streamflow observations during 2009-2012 at four major rivers in the basin. Downscaled climatic drivers (precipitation, temperature, solar radiation) projected by twenty GCMs-RCMs under CMIP5, along with the projected future land use/cover features were also incorporated into the model. The basin storm runoff was then simulated for the historical (2000s = 1976-2005) and two future periods (2050s = 2030-2059, and 2080s = 2070-2099). Comparative evaluation of the historical and future scenarios leads to important guidelines for stormwater management in Northwest Florida and similar regions under a changing climate and environment.

Air quality in the mid-21st century for the city of Paris under two climate scenarios; from the regional to local scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Markakis, K.; Valari, M.; Colette, A.; Sanchez, O.; Perrussel, O.; Honore, C.; Vautard, R.; Klimont, Z.; Rao, S.

2014-07-01

Ozone and PM2.5 concentrations over the city of Paris are modeled with the CHIMERE air-quality model at 4 km × 4 km horizontal resolution for two future emission scenarios. A high-resolution (1 km × 1 km) emission projection until 2020 for the greater Paris region is developed by local experts (AIRPARIF) and is further extended to year 2050 based on regional-scale emission projections developed by the Global Energy Assessment. Model evaluation is performed based on a 10-year control simulation. Ozone is in very good agreement with measurements while PM2.5 is underestimated by 20% over the urban area mainly due to a large wet bias in wintertime precipitation. A significant increase of maximum ozone relative to present-day levels over Paris is modeled under the "business-as-usual" scenario (+7 ppb) while a more optimistic "mitigation" scenario leads to a moderate ozone decrease (-3.5 ppb) in year 2050. These results are substantially different to previous regional-scale projections where 2050 ozone is found to decrease under both future scenarios. A sensitivity analysis showed that this difference is due to the fact that ozone formation over Paris at the current urban-scale study is driven by volatile organic compound (VOC)-limited chemistry, whereas at the regional-scale ozone formation occurs under NOx-sensitive conditions. This explains why the sharp NOx reductions implemented in the future scenarios have a different effect on ozone projections at different scales. In rural areas, projections at both scales yield similar results showing that the longer timescale processes of emission transport and ozone formation are less sensitive to model resolution. PM2.5 concentrations decrease by 78% and 89% under business-as-usual and mitigation scenarios, respectively, compared to the present-day period. The reduction is much more prominent over the urban part of the domain due to the effective reductions of road transport and residential emissions resulting in the smoothing of the large urban increment modeled in the control simulation.

eIFL (Electronic Information for Libraries): A Global Initiative of the Soros Foundations Network.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Feret, Blazej; Kay, Michael

This paper presents the history, current status, and future development of eIFL (Electronic Information for Libraries Direct)--a large-scale project run by the Soros Foundations Network and the Open Society Institute. The project aims to provide libraries in developing countries with access to a menu of electronic information resources. In 1999,…

Projected future vegetation changes for the northwest United States and southwest Canada at a fine spatial resolution using a dynamic global vegetation model.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shafer, Sarah; Bartlein, Patrick J.; Gray, Elizabeth M.; Pelltier, Richard T.

2015-01-01

Future climate change may significantly alter the distributions of many plant taxa. The effects of climate change may be particularly large in mountainous regions where climate can vary significantly with elevation. Understanding potential future vegetation changes in these regions requires methods that can resolve vegetation responses to climate change at fine spatial resolutions. We used LPJ, a dynamic global vegetation model, to assess potential future vegetation changes for a large topographically complex area of the northwest United States and southwest Canada (38.0–58.0°N latitude by 136.6–103.0°W longitude). LPJ is a process-based vegetation model that mechanistically simulates the effect of changing climate and atmospheric CO2 concentrations on vegetation. It was developed and has been mostly applied at spatial resolutions of 10-minutes or coarser. In this study, we used LPJ at a 30-second (~1-km) spatial resolution to simulate potential vegetation changes for 2070–2099. LPJ was run using downscaled future climate simulations from five coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (CCSM3, CGCM3.1(T47), GISS-ER, MIROC3.2(medres), UKMO-HadCM3) produced using the A2 greenhouse gases emissions scenario. Under projected future climate and atmospheric CO2 concentrations, the simulated vegetation changes result in the contraction of alpine, shrub-steppe, and xeric shrub vegetation across the study area and the expansion of woodland and forest vegetation. Large areas of maritime cool forest and cold forest are simulated to persist under projected future conditions. The fine spatial-scale vegetation simulations resolve patterns of vegetation change that are not visible at coarser resolutions and these fine-scale patterns are particularly important for understanding potential future vegetation changes in topographically complex areas.

Projected Future Vegetation Changes for the Northwest United States and Southwest Canada at a Fine Spatial Resolution Using a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model

PubMed Central

Shafer, Sarah L.; Bartlein, Patrick J.; Gray, Elizabeth M.; Pelltier, Richard T.

2015-01-01

Future climate change may significantly alter the distributions of many plant taxa. The effects of climate change may be particularly large in mountainous regions where climate can vary significantly with elevation. Understanding potential future vegetation changes in these regions requires methods that can resolve vegetation responses to climate change at fine spatial resolutions. We used LPJ, a dynamic global vegetation model, to assess potential future vegetation changes for a large topographically complex area of the northwest United States and southwest Canada (38.0–58.0°N latitude by 136.6–103.0°W longitude). LPJ is a process-based vegetation model that mechanistically simulates the effect of changing climate and atmospheric CO2 concentrations on vegetation. It was developed and has been mostly applied at spatial resolutions of 10-minutes or coarser. In this study, we used LPJ at a 30-second (~1-km) spatial resolution to simulate potential vegetation changes for 2070–2099. LPJ was run using downscaled future climate simulations from five coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (CCSM3, CGCM3.1(T47), GISS-ER, MIROC3.2(medres), UKMO-HadCM3) produced using the A2 greenhouse gases emissions scenario. Under projected future climate and atmospheric CO2 concentrations, the simulated vegetation changes result in the contraction of alpine, shrub-steppe, and xeric shrub vegetation across the study area and the expansion of woodland and forest vegetation. Large areas of maritime cool forest and cold forest are simulated to persist under projected future conditions. The fine spatial-scale vegetation simulations resolve patterns of vegetation change that are not visible at coarser resolutions and these fine-scale patterns are particularly important for understanding potential future vegetation changes in topographically complex areas. PMID:26488750

Scale-Up: Improving Large Enrollment Physics Courses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beichner, Robert

1999-11-01

The Student-Centered Activities for Large Enrollment University Physics (SCALE-UP) project is working to establish a learning environment that will promote increased conceptual understanding, improved problem-solving performance, and greater student satisfaction, while still maintaining class sizes of approximately 100. We are also addressing the new ABET engineering accreditation requirements for inquiry-based learning along with communication and team-oriented skills development. Results of studies of our latest classroom design, plans for future classroom space, and the current iteration of instructional materials will be discussed.

Assessment of climate change impacts on runoff in China using climate elasticity and multiple CMIP5 GCMs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, C.; Hu, B. X.; Wang, P.; Xu, K.

2017-12-01

The occurrence of climate warming is unequivocal and is expected to alter the temporal-spatial patterns of regional water resources. Based on the long-term (1960-2012) water budget data and climate projections from 28 Global Climate Models (GCMs) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), this study investigated the responses of runoff (R) to future climate variability in China at both grid and catchment scales using the Budyko-based elasticity method. Results indicate a large spatial variation in precipitation (P) elasticity (from 1.2 to 3.3) and potential evaporation (PET) elasticity (from -2.3 to -0.2) across China. The P elasticity is larger in northeast and western China than in southern China, while the opposite occurs for PET elasticity. Climate projections suggest that there is large uncertainty involved among the GCM simulations, but most project a consistent change in P (or PET) over China at the mean annual scale. During the future period of 2071-2100, the mean annual P will likely increase in most parts of China particularly the western regions, while the mean annual PET will likely increase in the whole China especially the southern regions due to future increases in temperature. Moreover, larger increases are projected for higher emission scenarios. Compared with the baseline 1971-2000, the arid regions and humid regions of China will likely become wetter and drier in the period 2071-2100, respectively.

Large-scale assessment of present day and future groundwater recharge and its sensitivity to climate variability in Europe's karst regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hartmann, A. J.; Gleeson, T. P.; Wagener, T.; Wada, Y.

2016-12-01

Karst aquifers in Europe are an important source of fresh water contributing up to half of the total drinking water supply in some countries. Karstic groundwater recharge is one of the most important components of the water balance of karst systems as it feeds the karst aquifers. Presently available large-scale hydrological models do not consider karst heterogeneity adequately. Projections of current and potential future groundwater recharge of Europe's karst aquifers are therefore unclear. In this study we compare simulations of present (1991-2010) and future (2080-2099) recharge using two different models to simulate groundwater recharge processes. One model includes karst processes (subsurface heterogeneity, lateral flow and concentrated recharge), while the other is based on the conceptual understanding of common hydrological systems (homogeneous subsurface, saturation excess overland flow). Both models are driven by the bias-corrected 5 GCMs of the ISI-MIP project (RCP8.5). To further assess sensitivity of groundwater recharge to climate variability, we calculate the elasticity of recharge rates to annual precipitation, temperature and average intensity of rainfall events, which is the median change of recharge that corresponds to the median change of these climate variables within the present and future time period, respectively. Our model comparison shows that karst regions over Europe have enhanced recharge rates with greater inter-annual variability compared to those with more homogenous subsurface properties. Furthermore, the heterogeneous representation shows stronger elasticity concerning climate variability than the homogeneous subsurface representation. This difference tends to increase towards the future. Our results suggest that water management in regions with heterogeneous subsurface can expect a higher water availability than estimated by most of the current large-scale simulations, while measures should be taken to prepare for increasingly variable groundwater recharge rates.

The future of management: The NASA paradigm

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Harris, Philip R.

1992-01-01

Prototypes of 21st century management, especially for large scale enterprises, may well be found within the aerospace industry. The space era inaugurated a number of projects of such scope and magnitude that another type of management had to be created to ensure successful achievement. The challenges will be not just in terms of technology and its management, but also human and cultural in dimension. Futurists, students of management, and those concerned with technological administration would do well to review the literature of emerging space management for its wider implications. NASA offers a paradigm, or demonstrated model, of future trends in the field of management at large. More research is needed on issues of leadership for Earth based project in space and space based programs with managers there. It is needed to realize that large scale technical enterprises, such as are undertaken in space, require a new form of management. NASA and other responsible agencies are urged to study excellence in space macromanagement, including the necessary multidisciplinary skills. Two recommended targets are the application of general living systems theory and macromanagement concepts for space stations in the 1990s.

Macroweather Predictions and Climate Projections using Scaling and Historical Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hébert, R.; Lovejoy, S.; Del Rio Amador, L.

2017-12-01

There are two fundamental time scales that are pertinent to decadal forecasts and multidecadal projections. The first is the lifetime of planetary scale structures, about 10 days (equal to the deterministic predictability limit), and the second is - in the anthropocene - the scale at which the forced anthropogenic variability exceeds the internal variability (around 16 - 18 years). These two time scales define three regimes of variability: weather, macroweather and climate that are respectively characterized by increasing, decreasing and then increasing varibility with scale.We discuss how macroweather temperature variability can be skilfully predicted to its theoretical stochastic predictability limits by exploiting its long-range memory with the Stochastic Seasonal and Interannual Prediction System (StocSIPS). At multi-decadal timescales, the temperature response to forcing is approximately linear and this can be exploited to make projections with a Green's function, or Climate Response Function (CRF). To make the problem tractable, we exploit the temporal scaling symmetry and restrict our attention to global mean forcing and temperature response using a scaling CRF characterized by the scaling exponent H and an inner scale of linearity τ. An aerosol linear scaling factor α and a non-linear volcanic damping exponent ν were introduced to account for the large uncertainty in these forcings. We estimate the model and forcing parameters by Bayesian inference using historical data and these allow us to analytically calculate a median (and likely 66% range) for the transient climate response, and for the equilibrium climate sensitivity: 1.6K ([1.5,1.8]K) and 2.4K ([1.9,3.4]K) respectively. Aerosol forcing typically has large uncertainty and we find a modern (2005) forcing very likely range (90%) of [-1.0, -0.3] Wm-2 with median at -0.7 Wm-2. Projecting to 2100, we find that to keep the warming below 1.5 K, future emissions must undergo cuts similar to Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 for which the probability to remain under 1.5 K is 48%. RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5-like futures overshoot with very high probability. This underscores that over the next century, the state of the environment will be strongly influenced by past, present and future economical policies.

Supersonic Retropropulsion Technology Development in NASA's Entry, Descent, and Landing Project

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Edquist, Karl T.; Berry, Scott A.; Rhode, Matthew N.; Kelb, Bil; Korzun, Ashley; Dyakonov, Artem A.; Zarchi, Kerry A.; Schauerhamer, Daniel G.; Post, Ethan A.

2012-01-01

NASA's Entry, Descent, and Landing (EDL) space technology roadmap calls for new technologies to achieve human exploration of Mars in the coming decades [1]. One of those technologies, termed Supersonic Retropropulsion (SRP), involves initiation of propulsive deceleration at supersonic Mach numbers. The potential benefits afforded by SRP to improve payload mass and landing precision make the technology attractive for future EDL missions. NASA's EDL project spent two years advancing the technological maturity of SRP for Mars exploration [2-15]. This paper summarizes the technical accomplishments from the project and highlights challenges and recommendations for future SRP technology development programs. These challenges include: developing sufficiently large SRP engines for use on human-scale entry systems; testing and computationally modelling complex and unsteady SRP fluid dynamics; understanding the effects of SRP on entry vehicle stability and controllability; and demonstrating sub-scale SRP entry systems in Earth's atmosphere.

Uncertainties in Past and Future Global Water Availability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheffield, J.; Kam, J.

2014-12-01

Understanding how water availability changes on inter-annual to decadal time scales and how it may change in the future under climate change are a key part of understanding future stresses on water and food security. Historic evaluations of water availability on regional to global scales are generally based on large-scale model simulations with their associated uncertainties, in particular for long-term changes. Uncertainties are due to model errors and missing processes, parameter uncertainty, and errors in meteorological forcing data. Recent multi-model inter-comparisons and impact studies have highlighted large differences for past reconstructions, due to different simplifying assumptions in the models or the inclusion of physical processes such as CO2 fertilization. Modeling of direct anthropogenic factors such as water and land management also carry large uncertainties in their physical representation and from lack of socio-economic data. Furthermore, there is little understanding of the impact of uncertainties in the meteorological forcings that underpin these historic simulations. Similarly, future changes in water availability are highly uncertain due to climate model diversity, natural variability and scenario uncertainty, each of which dominates at different time scales. In particular, natural climate variability is expected to dominate any externally forced signal over the next several decades. We present results from multi-land surface model simulations of the historic global availability of water in the context of natural variability (droughts) and long-term changes (drying). The simulations take into account the impact of uncertainties in the meteorological forcings and the incorporation of water management in the form of reservoirs and irrigation. The results indicate that model uncertainty is important for short-term drought events, and forcing uncertainty is particularly important for long-term changes, especially uncertainty in precipitation due to reduced gauge density in recent years. We also discuss uncertainties in future projections from these models as driven by bias-corrected and downscaled CMIP5 climate projections, in the context of the balance between climate model robustness and climate model diversity.

The Segmented Aperture Interferometric Nulling Testbed (SAINT) I: Overview and Air-side System Description

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hicks, Brian A.; Lyon, Richard G.; Petrone, Peter, III; Bolcar, Matthew R.; Bolognese, Jeff; Clampin, Mark; Dogoda, Peter; Dworzanski, Daniel; Helmbrecht, Michael A.; Koca, Corina;

Regional climate projection of the Maritime Continent using the MIT Regional Climate Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

IM, E. S.; Eltahir, E. A. B.

2014-12-01

Given that warming of the climate system is unequivocal (IPCC AR5), accurate assessment of future climate is essential to understand the impact of climate change due to global warming. Modelling the climate change of the Maritime Continent is particularly challenge, showing a high degree of uncertainty. Compared to other regions, model agreement of future projections in response to anthropogenic emission forcings is much less. Furthermore, the spatial and temporal behaviors of climate projections seem to vary significantly due to a complex geographical condition and a wide range of scale interactions. For the fine-scale climate information (27 km) suitable for representing the complexity of climate change over the Maritime Continent, dynamical downscaling is performed using the MIT regional climate model (MRCM) during two thirty-year period for reference (1970-1999) and future (2070-2099) climate. Initial and boundary conditions are provided by Community Earth System Model (CESM) simulations under the emission scenarios projected by MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM). Changes in mean climate as well as the frequency and intensity of extreme climate events are investigated at various temporal and spatial scales. Our analysis is primarily centered on the different behavior of changes in convective and large-scale precipitation over land vs. ocean during dry vs. wet season. In addition, we attempt to find the added value to downscaled results over the Maritime Continent through the comparison between MRCM and CESM projection. Acknowledgements.This research was supported by the National Research Foundation Singapore through the Singapore MIT Alliance for Research and Technology's Center for Environmental Sensing and Modeling interdisciplinary research program.

Niches, models, and climate change: Assessing the assumptions and uncertainties

PubMed Central

Wiens, John A.; Stralberg, Diana; Jongsomjit, Dennis; Howell, Christine A.; Snyder, Mark A.

2009-01-01

As the rate and magnitude of climate change accelerate, understanding the consequences becomes increasingly important. Species distribution models (SDMs) based on current ecological niche constraints are used to project future species distributions. These models contain assumptions that add to the uncertainty in model projections stemming from the structure of the models, the algorithms used to translate niche associations into distributional probabilities, the quality and quantity of data, and mismatches between the scales of modeling and data. We illustrate the application of SDMs using two climate models and two distributional algorithms, together with information on distributional shifts in vegetation types, to project fine-scale future distributions of 60 California landbird species. Most species are projected to decrease in distribution by 2070. Changes in total species richness vary over the state, with large losses of species in some “hotspots” of vulnerability. Differences in distributional shifts among species will change species co-occurrences, creating spatial variation in similarities between current and future assemblages. We use these analyses to consider how assumptions can be addressed and uncertainties reduced. SDMs can provide a useful way to incorporate future conditions into conservation and management practices and decisions, but the uncertainties of model projections must be balanced with the risks of taking the wrong actions or the costs of inaction. Doing this will require that the sources and magnitudes of uncertainty are documented, and that conservationists and resource managers be willing to act despite the uncertainties. The alternative, of ignoring the future, is not an option. PMID:19822750

Projection Effects of Large-scale Structures on Weak-lensing Peak Abundances

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, Shuo; Liu, Xiangkun; Pan, Chuzhong; Wang, Qiao; Fan, Zuhui

2018-04-01

High peaks in weak lensing (WL) maps originate dominantly from the lensing effects of single massive halos. Their abundance is therefore closely related to the halo mass function and thus a powerful cosmological probe. However, besides individual massive halos, large-scale structures (LSS) along lines of sight also contribute to the peak signals. In this paper, with ray-tracing simulations, we investigate the LSS projection effects. We show that for current surveys with a large shape noise, the stochastic LSS effects are subdominant. For future WL surveys with source galaxies having a median redshift z med ∼ 1 or higher, however, they are significant. For the cosmological constraints derived from observed WL high-peak counts, severe biases can occur if the LSS effects are not taken into account properly. We extend the model of Fan et al. by incorporating the LSS projection effects into the theoretical considerations. By comparing with simulation results, we demonstrate the good performance of the improved model and its applicability in cosmological studies.

Large rainfall changes consistently projected over substantial areas of tropical land

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chadwick, Robin; Good, Peter; Martin, Gill; Rowell, David P.

2016-02-01

Many tropical countries are exceptionally vulnerable to changes in rainfall patterns, with floods or droughts often severely affecting human life and health, food and water supplies, ecosystems and infrastructure. There is widespread disagreement among climate model projections of how and where rainfall will change over tropical land at the regional scales relevant to impacts, with different models predicting the position of current tropical wet and dry regions to shift in different ways. Here we show that despite uncertainty in the location of future rainfall shifts, climate models consistently project that large rainfall changes will occur for a considerable proportion of tropical land over the twenty-first century. The area of semi-arid land affected by large changes under a higher emissions scenario is likely to be greater than during even the most extreme regional wet or dry periods of the twentieth century, such as the Sahel drought of the late 1960s to 1990s. Substantial changes are projected to occur by mid-century--earlier than previously expected--and to intensify in line with global temperature rise. Therefore, current climate projections contain quantitative, decision-relevant information on future regional rainfall changes, particularly with regard to climate change mitigation policy.

Effects of different regional climate model resolution and forcing scales on projected hydrologic changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mendoza, Pablo A.; Mizukami, Naoki; Ikeda, Kyoko; Clark, Martyn P.; Gutmann, Ethan D.; Arnold, Jeffrey R.; Brekke, Levi D.; Rajagopalan, Balaji

2016-10-01

We examine the effects of regional climate model (RCM) horizontal resolution and forcing scaling (i.e., spatial aggregation of meteorological datasets) on the portrayal of climate change impacts. Specifically, we assess how the above decisions affect: (i) historical simulation of signature measures of hydrologic behavior, and (ii) projected changes in terms of annual water balance and hydrologic signature measures. To this end, we conduct our study in three catchments located in the headwaters of the Colorado River basin. Meteorological forcings for current and a future climate projection are obtained at three spatial resolutions (4-, 12- and 36-km) from dynamical downscaling with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) regional climate model, and hydrologic changes are computed using four different hydrologic model structures. These projected changes are compared to those obtained from running hydrologic simulations with current and future 4-km WRF climate outputs re-scaled to 12- and 36-km. The results show that the horizontal resolution of WRF simulations heavily affects basin-averaged precipitation amounts, propagating into large differences in simulated signature measures across model structures. The implications of re-scaled forcing datasets on historical performance were primarily observed on simulated runoff seasonality. We also found that the effects of WRF grid resolution on projected changes in mean annual runoff and evapotranspiration may be larger than the effects of hydrologic model choice, which surpasses the effects from re-scaled forcings. Scaling effects on projected variations in hydrologic signature measures were found to be generally smaller than those coming from WRF resolution; however, forcing aggregation in many cases reversed the direction of projected changes in hydrologic behavior.

Adapting wheat to uncertain future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Semenov, Mikhail; Stratonovitch, Pierre

2015-04-01

This study describes integration of climate change projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) multi-model ensemble with the LARS-WG weather generator, which delivers an attractive option for downscaling of large-scale climate projections from global climate models (GCMs) to local-scale climate scenarios for impact assessments. A subset of 18 GCMs from the CMIP5 ensemble and 2 RCPs, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, were integrated with LARS-WG. Climate sensitivity indexes for temperature and precipitation were computed for all GCMs and for 21 regions in the world. For computationally demanding impact assessments, where it is not practical to explore all possible combinations of GCM × RCP, climate sensitivity indexes could be used to select a subset of GCMs from CMIP5 with contrasting climate sensitivity. This would allow to quantify uncertainty in impacts resulting from the CMIP5 ensemble by conducting fewer simulation experiments. As an example, an in silico design of wheat ideotype optimised for future climate scenarios in Europe was described. Two contrasting GCMs were selected for the analysis, "hot" HadGEM2-ES and "cool" GISS-E2-R-CC, along with 2 RCPs. Despite large uncertainty in climate projections, several wheat traits were identified as beneficial for the high-yielding wheat ideotypes that could be used as targets for wheat improvement by breeders.

Computational aerodynamics development and outlook /Dryden Lecture in Research for 1979/

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chapman, D. R.

1979-01-01

Some past developments and current examples of computational aerodynamics are briefly reviewed. An assessment is made of the requirements on future computer memory and speed imposed by advanced numerical simulations, giving emphasis to the Reynolds averaged Navier-Stokes equations and to turbulent eddy simulations. Experimental scales of turbulence structure are used to determine the mesh spacings required to adequately resolve turbulent energy and shear. Assessment also is made of the changing market environment for developing future large computers, and of the projections of micro-electronics memory and logic technology that affect future computer capability. From the two assessments, estimates are formed of the future time scale in which various advanced types of aerodynamic flow simulations could become feasible. Areas of research judged especially relevant to future developments are noted.

Future changes in the climatology of the Great Plains low-level jet derived from fine resolution multi-model simulations.

PubMed

Tang, Ying; Winkler, Julie; Zhong, Shiyuan; Bian, Xindi; Doubler, Dana; Yu, Lejiang; Walters, Claudia

2017-07-10

The southerly Great Plains low-level jet (GPLLJ) is one of the most significant circulation features of the central U.S. linking large-scale atmospheric circulation with the regional climate. GPLLJs transport heat and moisture, contribute to thunderstorm and severe weather formation, provide a corridor for the springtime migration of birds and insects, enhance wind energy availability, and disperse air pollution. We assess future changes in GPLLJ frequency using an eight member ensemble of dynamically-downscaled climate simulations for the mid-21st century. Nocturnal GPLLJ frequency is projected to increase in the southern plains in spring and in the central plains in summer, whereas current climatological patterns persist into the future for daytime and cool season GPLLJs. The relationship between future GPLLJ frequency and the extent and strength of anticyclonic airflow over eastern North America varies with season. Most simulations project a westward shift of anticyclonic airflow in summer, but uncertainty is larger for spring with only half of the simulations suggesting a westward expansion. The choice of regional climate model and the driving lateral boundary conditions have a large influence on the projected future changes in GPLLJ frequency and highlight the importance of multi-model ensembles to estimate the uncertainty surrounding the future GPLLJ climatology.

Analysis of the ability of large-scale reanalysis data to define Siberian fire danger in preparation for future fire prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soja, Amber; Westberg, David; Stackhouse, Paul, Jr.; McRae, Douglas; Jin, Ji-Zhong; Sukhinin, Anatoly

2010-05-01

Fire is the dominant disturbance that precipitates ecosystem change in boreal regions, and fire is largely under the control of weather and climate. Fire frequency, fire severity, area burned and fire season length are predicted to increase in boreal regions under current climate change scenarios. Therefore, changes in fire regimes have the potential to compel ecological change, moving ecosystems more quickly towards equilibrium with a new climate. The ultimate goal of this research is to assess the viability of large-scale (1°) data to be used to define fire weather danger and fire regimes, so that large-scale data can be confidently used to predict future fire regimes using large-scale fire weather data, like that available from current Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate change scenarios. In this talk, we intent to: (1) evaluate Fire Weather Indices (FWI) derived using reanalysis and interpolated station data; (2) discuss the advantages and disadvantages of using these distinct data sources; and (3) highlight established relationships between large-scale fire weather data, area burned, active fires and ecosystems burned. Specifically, the Canadian Forestry Service (CFS) Fire Weather Index (FWI) will be derived using: (1) NASA Goddard Earth Observing System version 4 (GEOS-4) large-scale reanalysis and NASA Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) data; and National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) surface station-interpolated data. Requirements of the FWI are local noon surface-level air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and daily (noon-noon) rainfall. GEOS-4 reanalysis and NCDC station-interpolated fire weather indices are generally consistent spatially, temporally and quantitatively. Additionally, increased fire activity coincides with increased FWI ratings in both data products. Relationships have been established between large-scale FWI to area burned, fire frequency, ecosystem types, and these can be use to estimate historic and future fire regimes.

Determing Credibility of Regional Simulations of Future Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mearns, L. O.

2009-12-01

Climate models have been evaluated or validated ever since they were first developed. Establishing that a climate model can reproduce (some) aspects of the current climate of the earth on various spatial and temporal scales has long been a standard procedure for providing confidence in the model's ability to simulate future climate. However, direct links between the successes and failures of models in reproducing the current climate with regard to what future climates the models simulate has been largely lacking. This is to say that the model evaluation process has been largely divorced from the projections of future climate that the models produce. This is evidenced in the separation in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) WG1 report of the chapter on evaluation of models from the chapter on future climate projections. There has also been the assumption of 'one model, one vote, that is, that each model projection is given equal weight in any multi-model ensemble presentation of the projections of future climate. There have been various attempts at determing measures of credibility that would avoid the 'ultrademocratic' assumption of the IPCC. Simple distinctions between models were made by research such as in Giorgi and Mearns (2002), Tebaldi et al., (2005), and Greene et al., (2006). But the metrics used were rather simplistic. More ambitous means of discriminating among the quality of model simulations have been made through the production of complex multivariate metrics, but insufficent work has been produced to verify that the metrics successfully discriminate in meaningful ways. Indeed it has been suggested that we really don't know what a model must successfully model to establish confidence in its regional-scale projections (Gleckler et al., 2008). Perhaps a more process oriented regional expert judgment approach is needed to understand which errors in climate models really matter for the model's response to future forcing. Such an approach is being attempted in the North American Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) whereby multiple global models are used to drive multiple regional models for the current period and the mid-21st century over the continent. Progress in this endeavor will be reported.

How uncertain are climate model projections of water availability indicators across the Middle East?

PubMed

Hemming, Debbie; Buontempo, Carlo; Burke, Eleanor; Collins, Mat; Kaye, Neil

2010-11-28

The projection of robust regional climate changes over the next 50 years presents a considerable challenge for the current generation of climate models. Water cycle changes are particularly difficult to model in this area because major uncertainties exist in the representation of processes such as large-scale and convective rainfall and their feedback with surface conditions. We present climate model projections and uncertainties in water availability indicators (precipitation, run-off and drought index) for the 1961-1990 and 2021-2050 periods. Ensembles from two global climate models (GCMs) and one regional climate model (RCM) are used to examine different elements of uncertainty. Although all three ensembles capture the general distribution of observed annual precipitation across the Middle East, the RCM is consistently wetter than observations, especially over the mountainous areas. All future projections show decreasing precipitation (ensemble median between -5 and -25%) in coastal Turkey and parts of Lebanon, Syria and Israel and consistent run-off and drought index changes. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) GCM ensemble exhibits drying across the north of the region, whereas the Met Office Hadley Centre work Quantifying Uncertainties in Model ProjectionsAtmospheric (QUMP-A) GCM and RCM ensembles show slight drying in the north and significant wetting in the south. RCM projections also show greater sensitivity (both wetter and drier) and a wider uncertainty range than QUMP-A. The nature of these uncertainties suggests that both large-scale circulation patterns, which influence region-wide drying/wetting patterns, and regional-scale processes, which affect localized water availability, are important sources of uncertainty in these projections. To reduce large uncertainties in water availability projections, it is suggested that efforts would be well placed to focus on the understanding and modelling of both large-scale processes and their teleconnections with Middle East climate and localized processes involved in orographic precipitation.

Modeling the Hydrologic Effects of Large-Scale Green Infrastructure Projects with GIS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bado, R. A.; Fekete, B. M.; Khanbilvardi, R.

2015-12-01

Impervious surfaces in urban areas generate excess runoff, which in turn causes flooding, combined sewer overflows, and degradation of adjacent surface waters. Municipal environmental protection agencies have shown a growing interest in mitigating these effects with 'green' infrastructure practices that partially restore the perviousness and water holding capacity of urban centers. Assessment of the performance of current and future green infrastructure projects is hindered by the lack of adequate hydrological modeling tools; conventional techniques fail to account for the complex flow pathways of urban environments, and detailed analyses are difficult to prepare for the very large domains in which green infrastructure projects are implemented. Currently, no standard toolset exists that can rapidly and conveniently predict runoff, consequent inundations, and sewer overflows at a city-wide scale. We demonstrate how streamlined modeling techniques can be used with open-source GIS software to efficiently model runoff in large urban catchments. Hydraulic parameters and flow paths through city blocks, roadways, and sewer drains are automatically generated from GIS layers, and ultimately urban flow simulations can be executed for a variety of rainfall conditions. With this methodology, users can understand the implications of large-scale land use changes and green/gray storm water retention systems on hydraulic loading, peak flow rates, and runoff volumes.

Role of Internal Variability in Surface Temperature and Precipitation Change Uncertainties over India.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Achutarao, K. M.; Singh, R.

2017-12-01

There are various sources of uncertainty in model projections of future climate change. These include differences in the formulation of climate models, internal variability, and differences in scenarios. Internal variability in a climate system represents the unforced change due to the chaotic nature of the climate system and is considered irreducible (Deser et al., 2012). Internal variability becomes important at regional scales where it can dominate forced changes. Therefore it needs to be carefully assessed in future projections. In this study we segregate the role of internal variability in the future temperature and precipitation projections over the Indian region. We make use of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project - phase 5 (CMIP5; Taylor et al., 2012) database containing climate model simulations carried out by various modeling centers around the world. While the CMIP5 experimental protocol recommended producing numerous ensemble members, only a handful of the modeling groups provided multiple realizations. Having a small number of realizations is a limitation in producing a quantification of internal variability. We therefore exploit the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM-LE; Kay et al., 2014) dataset which contains a 40 member ensemble of a single model- CESM1 (CAM5) to explore the role of internal variability in Future Projections. Surface air temperature and precipitation change projections over regional and sub-regional scale are analyzed under the IPCC emission scenario (RCP8.5) for different seasons and homogeneous climatic zones over India. We analyze the spread in projections due to internal variability in the CESM-LE and CMIP5 datasets over these regions.

Seemingly unrelated intervention time series models for effectiveness evaluation of large scale environmental remediation.

PubMed

Ip, Ryan H L; Li, W K; Leung, Kenneth M Y

2013-09-15

Large scale environmental remediation projects applied to sea water always involve large amount of capital investments. Rigorous effectiveness evaluations of such projects are, therefore, necessary and essential for policy review and future planning. This study aims at investigating effectiveness of environmental remediation using three different Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) time series models with intervention effects, including Model (1) assuming no correlation within and across variables, Model (2) assuming no correlation across variable but allowing correlations within variable across different sites, and Model (3) allowing all possible correlations among variables (i.e., an unrestricted model). The results suggested that the unrestricted SUR model is the most reliable one, consistently having smallest variations of the estimated model parameters. We discussed our results with reference to marine water quality management in Hong Kong while bringing managerial issues into consideration. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Basin-Scale Hydrologic Impacts of CO2 Storage: Regulatory and Capacity Implications

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Birkholzer, J.T.; Zhou, Q.

Industrial-scale injection of CO{sub 2} into saline sedimentary basins will cause large-scale fluid pressurization and migration of native brines, which may affect valuable groundwater resources overlying the deep sequestration reservoirs. In this paper, we discuss how such basin-scale hydrologic impacts can (1) affect regulation of CO{sub 2} storage projects and (2) may reduce current storage capacity estimates. Our assessment arises from a hypothetical future carbon sequestration scenario in the Illinois Basin, which involves twenty individual CO{sub 2} storage projects in a core injection area suitable for long-term storage. Each project is assumed to inject five million tonnes of CO{sub 2}more » per year for 50 years. A regional-scale three-dimensional simulation model was developed for the Illinois Basin that captures both the local-scale CO{sub 2}-brine flow processes and the large-scale groundwater flow patterns in response to CO{sub 2} storage. The far-field pressure buildup predicted for this selected sequestration scenario suggests that (1) the area that needs to be characterized in a permitting process may comprise a very large region within the basin if reservoir pressurization is considered, and (2) permits cannot be granted on a single-site basis alone because the near- and far-field hydrologic response may be affected by interference between individual sites. Our results also support recent studies in that environmental concerns related to near-field and far-field pressure buildup may be a limiting factor on CO{sub 2} storage capacity. In other words, estimates of storage capacity, if solely based on the effective pore volume available for safe trapping of CO{sub 2}, may have to be revised based on assessments of pressure perturbations and their potential impact on caprock integrity and groundwater resources, respectively. We finally discuss some of the challenges in making reliable predictions of large-scale hydrologic impacts related to CO{sub 2} sequestration projects.« less

Impact of large-scale circulation changes in the North Atlantic sector on the current and future Mediterranean winter hydroclimate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barcikowska, Monika J.; Kapnick, Sarah B.; Feser, Frauke

2018-03-01

The Mediterranean region, located in the transition zone between the dry subtropical and wet European mid-latitude climate, is very sensitive to changes in the global mean climate state. Projecting future changes of the Mediterranean hydroclimate under global warming therefore requires dynamic climate models to reproduce the main mechanisms controlling regional hydroclimate with sufficiently high resolution to realistically simulate climate extremes. To assess future winter precipitation changes in the Mediterranean region we use the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory high-resolution general circulation model for control simulations with pre-industrial greenhouse gas and aerosol concentrations which are compared to future scenario simulations. Here we show that the coupled model is able to reliably simulate the large-scale winter circulation, including the North Atlantic Oscillation and Eastern Atlantic patterns of variability, and its associated impacts on the mean Mediterranean hydroclimate. The model also realistically reproduces the regional features of daily heavy rainfall, which are absent in lower-resolution simulations. A five-member future projection ensemble, which assumes comparatively high greenhouse gas emissions (RCP8.5) until 2100, indicates a strong winter decline in Mediterranean precipitation for the coming decades. Consistent with dynamical and thermodynamical consequences of a warming atmosphere, derived changes feature a distinct bipolar behavior, i.e. wetting in the north—and drying in the south. Changes are most pronounced over the northwest African coast, where the projected winter precipitation decline reaches 40% of present values. Despite a decrease in mean precipitation, heavy rainfall indices show drastic increases across most of the Mediterranean, except the North African coast, which is under the strong influence of the cold Canary Current.

The Future of Wind Energy in California: Future Projections in Variable-Resolution CESM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, M.; Ullrich, P. A.; Millstein, D.; Collier, C.

2017-12-01

This study focuses on the wind energy characterization and future projection at five primary wind turbine sites in California. Historical (1980-2000) and mid-century (2030-2050) simulations were produced using the Variable-Resolution Community Earth System Model (VR-CESM) to analyze the trends and variations in wind energy under climate change. Datasets from Det Norske Veritas Germanischer Llyod (DNV GL), MERRA-2, CFSR, NARR, as well as surface observational data were used for model validation and comparison. Significant seasonal wind speed changes under RCP8.5 were detected from several wind farm sites. Large-scale patterns were then investigated to analyze the synoptic-scale impact on localized wind change. The agglomerative clustering method was applied to analyze and group different wind patterns. The associated meteorological background of each cluster was investigated to analyze the drivers of different wind patterns. This study improves the characterization of uncertainty around the magnitude and variability in space and time of California's wind resources in the near future, and also enhances understanding of the physical mechanisms related to the trends in wind resource variability.

A Strong Future for Public Library Use and Employment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Griffiths, Jose-Marie; King, Donald W.

2011-01-01

The latest and most comprehensive assessment of public librarians' education and career paths to date, this important volume reports on a large-scale research project performed by authors Jose-Marie Griffiths and Donald W. King. Presented in collaboration with the Office for Research and Statistics (ORS), the book includes an examination of trends…

Extreme weather: Subtropical floods and tropical cyclones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shaevitz, Daniel A.

Extreme weather events have a large effect on society. As such, it is important to understand these events and to project how they may change in a future, warmer climate. The aim of this thesis is to develop a deeper understanding of two types of extreme weather events: subtropical floods and tropical cyclones (TCs). In the subtropics, the latitude is high enough that quasi-geostrophic dynamics are at least qualitatively relevant, while low enough that moisture may be abundant and convection strong. Extratropical extreme precipitation events are usually associated with large-scale flow disturbances, strong ascent, and large latent heat release. In the first part of this thesis, I examine the possible triggering of convection by the large-scale dynamics and investigate the coupling between the two. Specifically two examples of extreme precipitation events in the subtropics are analyzed, the 2010 and 2014 floods of India and Pakistan and the 2015 flood of Texas and Oklahoma. I invert the quasi-geostrophic omega equation to decompose the large-scale vertical motion profile to components due to synoptic forcing and diabatic heating. Additionally, I present model results from within the Column Quasi-Geostrophic framework. A single column model and cloud-revolving model are forced with the large-scale forcings (other than large-scale vertical motion) computed from the quasi-geostrophic omega equation with input data from a reanalysis data set, and the large-scale vertical motion is diagnosed interactively with the simulated convection. It is found that convection was triggered primarily by mechanically forced orographic ascent over the Himalayas during the India/Pakistan flood and by upper-level Potential Vorticity disturbances during the Texas/Oklahoma flood. Furthermore, a climate attribution analysis was conducted for the Texas/Oklahoma flood and it is found that anthropogenic climate change was responsible for a small amount of rainfall during the event but the intensity of this event may be greatly increased if it occurs in a future climate. In the second part of this thesis, I examine the ability of high-resolution global atmospheric models to simulate TCs. Specifically, I present an intercomparison of several models' ability to simulate the global characteristics of TCs in the current climate. This is a necessary first step before using these models to project future changes in TCs. Overall, the models were able to reproduce the geographic distribution of TCs reasonably well, with some of the models performing remarkably well. The intensity of TCs varied widely between the models, with some of this difference being due to model resolution.

Drought and heatwaves in Europe: historical reconstruction and future projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samaniego, Luis; Thober, Stephan; Kumar, Rohini; Rakovec, Olda; Wood, Eric; Sheffield, Justin; Pan, Ming; Wanders, Niko; Prudhomme, Christel

2017-04-01

Heat waves and droughts are creeping hydro-meteorological events that may bring societies and natural systems to their limits by inducing large famines, increasing health risks to the population, creating drinking and irrigation water shortfalls, inducing natural fires and degradation of soil and water quality, and in many cases causing large socio-economic losses. Europe, in particular, has endured large scale drought-heat-wave events during the recent past (e.g., 2003 European drought), which have induced enormous socio-economic losses as well as casualties. Recent studies showed that the prediction of droughts and heatwaves is subject to large-scale forcing and parametric uncertainties that lead to considerable uncertainties in the projections of extreme characteristics such as drought magnitude/duration and area under drought, among others. Future projections are also heavily influenced by the RCP scenario uncertainty as well as the coarser spatial resolution of the models. The EDgE project funded by the Copernicus programme (C3S) provides an unique opportunity to investigate the evolution of droughts and heatwaves from 1950 until 2099 over the Pan-EU domain at a scale of 5x5 km2. In this project, high-resolution multi-model hydrologic simulations with the mHM (www.ufz.de/mhm), Noah-MP, VIC and PCR-GLOBWB have been completed for the historical period 1955-2015. Climate projections have been carried out with five CMIP-5 GCMs: GFDL-ESM2M, HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5A-LR, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, NorESM1-M from 2006 to 2099 under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5. Using these multi-model unprecedented simulations, daily soil moisture index and temperature anomalies since 1955 until 2099 will be estimated. Using the procedure proposed by Samaniego et al. (2013), the probabilities of exceeding the benchmark events in the reference period 1980-2010 will be estimated for each RCP scenario. References http://climate.copernicus.eu/edge-end-end-demonstrator-improved-decision-making-water-sector-europe Samaniego, L., R. Kumar, and M. Zink, 2013: Implications of parameter uncertainty on soil moisture drought analysis in Germany. J. Hydrometeor., 14, 47-68, doi:10.1175/JHM-D-12-075.1. Samaniego, L., et al. 2016: Propagation of forcing and model uncertainties on to hydrological drought characteristics in a multi-model century-long experiment in large river basins. Climatic Change. 1-15.

Future changes in the climatology of the Great Plains low-level jet derived from fine resolution multi-model simulations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tang, Ying; Winkler, Julie; Zhong, Shiyuan

The southerly Great Plains low-level jet (GPLLJ) is one of the most significant circulation features of the central U.S. linking large-scale atmospheric circulation with the regional climate. GPLLJs transport heat and moisture, contribute to thunderstorm and severe weather formation, provide a corridor for the springtime migration of birds and insects, enhance wind energy availability, and disperse air pollution. We also assess future changes in GPLLJ frequency using an eight member ensemble of dynamically-downscaled climate simulations for the mid-21st century. Nocturnal GPLLJ frequency is projected to increase in the southern plains in spring and in the central plains in summer, whereasmore » current climatological patterns persist into the future for daytime and cool season GPLLJs. The relationship between future GPLLJ frequency and the extent and strength of anticyclonic airflow over eastern North America varies with season. Most simulations project a westward shift of anticyclonic airflow in summer, but uncertainty is larger for spring with only half of the simulations suggesting a westward expansion. Furthemore, the choice of regional climate model and the driving lateral boundary conditions have a large influence on the projected future changes in GPLLJ frequency and highlight the importance of multi-model ensembles to estimate the uncertainty surrounding the future GPLLJ climatology.« less

Future changes in the climatology of the Great Plains low-level jet derived from fine resolution multi-model simulations

DOE PAGES

Tang, Ying; Winkler, Julie; Zhong, Shiyuan; ...

2017-07-10

The southerly Great Plains low-level jet (GPLLJ) is one of the most significant circulation features of the central U.S. linking large-scale atmospheric circulation with the regional climate. GPLLJs transport heat and moisture, contribute to thunderstorm and severe weather formation, provide a corridor for the springtime migration of birds and insects, enhance wind energy availability, and disperse air pollution. We also assess future changes in GPLLJ frequency using an eight member ensemble of dynamically-downscaled climate simulations for the mid-21st century. Nocturnal GPLLJ frequency is projected to increase in the southern plains in spring and in the central plains in summer, whereasmore » current climatological patterns persist into the future for daytime and cool season GPLLJs. The relationship between future GPLLJ frequency and the extent and strength of anticyclonic airflow over eastern North America varies with season. Most simulations project a westward shift of anticyclonic airflow in summer, but uncertainty is larger for spring with only half of the simulations suggesting a westward expansion. Furthemore, the choice of regional climate model and the driving lateral boundary conditions have a large influence on the projected future changes in GPLLJ frequency and highlight the importance of multi-model ensembles to estimate the uncertainty surrounding the future GPLLJ climatology.« less

Managing Risk and Uncertainty in Large-Scale University Research Projects

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Moore, Sharlissa; Shangraw, R. F., Jr.

2011-01-01

Both publicly and privately funded research projects managed by universities are growing in size and scope. Complex, large-scale projects (over $50 million) pose new management challenges and risks for universities. This paper explores the relationship between project success and a variety of factors in large-scale university projects. First, we…

Philippine Academy of Rehabilitation Medicine emergency basic relief and medical aid mission project (November 2013-February 2014): the role of physiatrists in Super Typhoon Haiyan.

PubMed

Ganchoon, Filipinas; Bugho, Rommel; Calina, Liezel; Dy, Rochelle; Gosney, James

2017-06-09

Physiatrists have provided humanitarian assistance in recent large-scale global natural disasters. Super Typhoon Haiyan, the deadliest and most costly typhoon in modern Philippine history, made landfall on 8 November 2013 resulting in significant humanitarian needs. Philippine Academy of Rehabilitation Medicine physiatrists conducted a project of 23 emergency basic relief and medical aid missions in response to Super Typhoon Haiyan from November 2013 to February 2014. The final mission was a medical aid mission to the inland rural community of Burauen, Leyte. Summary data were collected, collated, and tabulated; project and mission evaluation was performed. During the humanitarian assistance project, 31,254 basic relief kits containing a variety of food and non-food items were distributed and medical services including consultation, treatment, and medicines were provided to 7255 patients. Of the 344 conditions evaluated in the medical aid mission to Burauen, Leyte 85 (59%) were physical and rehabilitation medicine conditions comprised of musculoskeletal (62 [73%]), neurological (17 [20%]), and dermatological (6 [7%]) diagnoses. Post-mission and project analysis resulted in recommendations and programmatic changes to strengthen response in future disasters. Physiatrists functioned as medical providers, mission team leaders, community advocates, and in other roles. This physiatrist-led humanitarian assistance project met critical basic relief and medical aid needs of persons impacted by Super Typhoon Haiyan, demonstrating significant roles performed by physiatrists in response to a large-scale natural disaster. Resulting disaster programing changes and recommendations may inform a more effective response by PARM mission teams in the Philippines as well as by other South-Eastern Asia teams comprising rehabilitation professionals to large-scale, regional natural disasters. Implications for rehabilitation Large-scale natural disasters including tropical cyclones can have a catastrophic impact on the affected population. In response to Super Typhoon Haiyan, physiatrists representing the Philippine Academy of Rehabilitation Medicine conducted a project of 23 emergency basic relief and medical aid missions from November 2013 to February 2014. Project analysis indicates that medical mission teams responding in similar settings may expect to evaluate a significant number of physical medicine and rehabilitation conditions. Medical rehabilitation with participation by rehabilitation professionals including rehabilitation doctors is essential to the emergency medical response in large-scale natural disasters.

Environmental impact assessment and environmental audit in large-scale public infrastructure construction: the case of the Qinghai-Tibet Railway.

PubMed

He, Guizhen; Zhang, Lei; Lu, Yonglong

2009-09-01

Large-scale public infrastructure projects have featured in China's modernization course since the early 1980s. During the early stages of China's rapid economic development, public attention focused on the economic and social impact of high-profile construction projects. In recent years, however, we have seen a shift in public concern toward the environmental and ecological effects of such projects, and today governments are required to provide valid environmental impact assessments prior to allowing large-scale construction. The official requirement for the monitoring of environmental conditions has led to an increased number of debates in recent years regarding the effectiveness of Environmental Impact Assessments (EIAs) and Governmental Environmental Audits (GEAs) as environmental safeguards in instances of large-scale construction. Although EIA and GEA are conducted by different institutions and have different goals and enforcement potential, these two practices can be closely related in terms of methodology. This article cites the construction of the Qinghai-Tibet Railway as an instance in which EIA and GEA offer complementary approaches to environmental impact management. This study concludes that the GEA approach can serve as an effective follow-up to the EIA and establishes that the EIA lays a base for conducting future GEAs. The relationship that emerges through a study of the Railway's construction calls for more deliberate institutional arrangements and cooperation if the two practices are to be used in concert to optimal effect.

Large-scale Meteorological Patterns Associated with Extreme Precipitation Events over Portland, OR

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aragon, C.; Loikith, P. C.; Lintner, B. R.; Pike, M.

2017-12-01

Extreme precipitation events can have profound impacts on human life and infrastructure, with broad implications across a range of stakeholders. Changes to extreme precipitation events are a projected outcome of climate change that warrants further study, especially at regional- to local-scales. While global climate models are generally capable of simulating mean climate at global-to-regional scales with reasonable skill, resiliency and adaptation decisions are made at local-scales where most state-of-the-art climate models are limited by coarse resolution. Characterization of large-scale meteorological patterns associated with extreme precipitation events at local-scales can provide climatic information without this scale limitation, thus facilitating stakeholder decision-making. This research will use synoptic climatology as a tool by which to characterize the key large-scale meteorological patterns associated with extreme precipitation events in the Portland, Oregon metro region. Composite analysis of meteorological patterns associated with extreme precipitation days, and associated watershed-specific flooding, is employed to enhance understanding of the climatic drivers behind such events. The self-organizing maps approach is then used to characterize the within-composite variability of the large-scale meteorological patterns associated with extreme precipitation events, allowing us to better understand the different types of meteorological conditions that lead to high-impact precipitation events and associated hydrologic impacts. A more comprehensive understanding of the meteorological drivers of extremes will aid in evaluation of the ability of climate models to capture key patterns associated with extreme precipitation over Portland and to better interpret projections of future climate at impact-relevant scales.

Analyzing large-scale proteomics projects with latent semantic indexing.

PubMed

Klie, Sebastian; Martens, Lennart; Vizcaíno, Juan Antonio; Côté, Richard; Jones, Phil; Apweiler, Rolf; Hinneburg, Alexander; Hermjakob, Henning

2008-01-01

Since the advent of public data repositories for proteomics data, readily accessible results from high-throughput experiments have been accumulating steadily. Several large-scale projects in particular have contributed substantially to the amount of identifications available to the community. Despite the considerable body of information amassed, very few successful analyses have been performed and published on this data, leveling off the ultimate value of these projects far below their potential. A prominent reason published proteomics data is seldom reanalyzed lies in the heterogeneous nature of the original sample collection and the subsequent data recording and processing. To illustrate that at least part of this heterogeneity can be compensated for, we here apply a latent semantic analysis to the data contributed by the Human Proteome Organization's Plasma Proteome Project (HUPO PPP). Interestingly, despite the broad spectrum of instruments and methodologies applied in the HUPO PPP, our analysis reveals several obvious patterns that can be used to formulate concrete recommendations for optimizing proteomics project planning as well as the choice of technologies used in future experiments. It is clear from these results that the analysis of large bodies of publicly available proteomics data by noise-tolerant algorithms such as the latent semantic analysis holds great promise and is currently underexploited.

Projecting future impacts of hurricanes on the carbon balance of eastern U.S. forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fisk, J. P.; Hurtt, G. C.; Chambers, J. Q.; Zeng, H.; Dolan, K.; Flanagan, S.; Rourke, O.; Negron Juarez, R. I.

2011-12-01

In U.S. Atlantic coastal areas, hurricanes are a principal agent of catastrophic wind damage, with dramatic impacts on the structure and functioning of forests. Substantial recent progress has been made to estimate the biomass loss and resulting carbon emissions caused by hurricanes impacting the U.S. Additionally, efforts to evaluate the net effects of hurricanes on the regional carbon balance have demonstrated the importance of viewing large disturbance events in the broader context of recovery from a mosaic of past events. Viewed over sufficiently long time scales and large spatial scales, regrowth from previous storms may largely offset new emissions; however, changes in number, strength or spatial distribution of extreme disturbance events will result in changes to the equilibrium state of the ecosystem and have the potential to result in a lasting carbon source or sink. Many recent studies have linked climate change to changes in the frequency and intensity of hurricanes. In this study, we use a mechanistic ecosystem model, the Ecosystem Demography (ED) model, driven by scenarios of future hurricane activity based on historic activity and future climate projections, to evaluate how changes in hurricane frequency, intensity and spatial distribution could affect regional carbon storage and flux over the coming century. We find a non-linear response where increased storm activity reduces standing biomass stocks reducing the impacts of future events. This effect is highly dependent on the spatial pattern and repeat interval of future hurricane activity. Developing this kind of predictive modeling capability that tracks disturbance events and recovery is key to our understanding and ability to predict the carbon balance of forests.

Climate change impact assessment on food security in Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ettema, Janneke; Aldrian, Edvin; de Bie, Kees; Jetten, Victor; Mannaerts, Chris

2013-04-01

As Indonesia is the world's fourth most populous country, food security is a persistent challenge. The potential impact of future climate change on the agricultural sector needs to be addressed in order to allow early implementation of mitigation strategies. The complex island topography and local sea-land-air interactions cannot adequately be represented in large scale General Climate Models (GCMs) nor visualized by TRMM. Downscaling is needed. Using meteorological observations and a simple statistical downscaling tool, local future projections are derived from state-of-the-art, large-scale GCM scenarios, provided by the CMIP5 project. To support the agriculture sector, providing information on especially rainfall and temperature variability is essential. Agricultural production forecast is influenced by several rain and temperature factors, such as rainy and dry season onset, offset and length, but also by daily and monthly minimum and maximum temperatures and its rainfall amount. A simple and advanced crop model will be used to address the sensitivity of different crops to temperature and rainfall variability, present-day and future. As case study area, Java Island is chosen as it is fourth largest island in Indonesia but contains more than half of the nation's population and dominates it politically and economically. The objective is to identify regions at agricultural risk due to changing patterns in precipitation and temperature.

A large-scale simulation of climate change effects on flood regime - A case study for the Alabama-Coosa-Tallapoosa River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dullo, T. T.; Gangrade, S.; Marshall, R.; Islam, S. R.; Ghafoor, S. K.; Kao, S. C.; Kalyanapu, A. J.

2017-12-01

The damage and cost of flooding are continuously increasing due to climate change and variability, which compels the development and advance of global flood hazard models. However, due to computational expensiveness, evaluation of large-scale and high-resolution flood regime remains a challenge. The objective of this research is to use a coupled modeling framework that consists of a dynamically downscaled suite of eleven Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate models, a distributed hydrologic model called DHSVM, and a computational-efficient 2-dimensional hydraulic model called Flood2D-GPU to study the impacts of climate change on flood regime in the Alabama-Coosa-Tallapoosa (ACT) River Basin. Downscaled meteorologic forcings for 40 years in the historical period (1966-2005) and 40 years in the future period (2011-2050) were used as inputs to drive the calibrated DHSVM to generate annual maximum flood hydrographs. These flood hydrographs along with 30-m resolution digital elevation and estimated surface roughness were then used by Flood2D-GPU to estimate high-resolution flood depth, velocities, duration, and regime. Preliminary results for the Conasauga river basin (an upper subbasin within ACT) indicate that seven of the eleven climate projections show an average increase of 25 km2 in flooded area (between historic and future projections). Future work will focus on illustrating the effects of climate change on flood duration and area for the entire ACT basin.

Locally adaptive, spatially explicit projection of US population for 2030 and 2050.

PubMed

McKee, Jacob J; Rose, Amy N; Bright, Edward A; Huynh, Timmy; Bhaduri, Budhendra L

2015-02-03

Localized adverse events, including natural hazards, epidemiological events, and human conflict, underscore the criticality of quantifying and mapping current population. Building on the spatial interpolation technique previously developed for high-resolution population distribution data (LandScan Global and LandScan USA), we have constructed an empirically informed spatial distribution of projected population of the contiguous United States for 2030 and 2050, depicting one of many possible population futures. Whereas most current large-scale, spatially explicit population projections typically rely on a population gravity model to determine areas of future growth, our projection model departs from these by accounting for multiple components that affect population distribution. Modeled variables, which included land cover, slope, distances to larger cities, and a moving average of current population, were locally adaptive and geographically varying. The resulting weighted surface was used to determine which areas had the greatest likelihood for future population change. Population projections of county level numbers were developed using a modified version of the US Census's projection methodology, with the US Census's official projection as the benchmark. Applications of our model include incorporating multiple various scenario-driven events to produce a range of spatially explicit population futures for suitability modeling, service area planning for governmental agencies, consequence assessment, mitigation planning and implementation, and assessment of spatially vulnerable populations.

Geospatial intelligence and visual classification of environmentally observed species in the Future Internet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arbab-Zavar, B.; Chakravarthy, A.; Sabeur, Z. A.

2012-04-01

The rapid development of advanced smart communication tools with good quality and resolution video cameras, audio and GPS devices in the last few years shall lead to profound impacts on the way future environmental observations are conducted and accessed by communities. The resulting large scale interconnections of these "Future Internet Things" form a large environmental sensing network which will generate large volumes of quality environmental observations and at highly localised spatial scales. This enablement in environmental sensing at local scales will be of great importance to contribute in the study of fauna and flora in the near future, particularly on the effect of climate change on biodiversity in various regions of Europe and beyond. The Future Internet could also potentially become the de facto information space to provide participative real-time sensing by communities and improve our situation awarness of the effect of climate on local environments. In the ENVIROFI(2011-2013) Usage Area project in the FP7 FI-PPP programme, a set of requirements for specific (and generic) enablers is achieved with the potential establishement of participating community observatories of the future. In particular, the specific enablement of interest concerns the building of future interoperable services for the management of environmental data intelligently with tagged contextual geo-spatial information generated by multiple operators in communities (Using smart phones). The classification of observed species in the resulting images is achieved with structured data pre-processing, semantic enrichement using contextual geospatial information, and high level fusion with controlled uncertainty estimations. The returned identification of species is further improved using future ground truth corrections and learning by the specific enablers.

Advanced Model for Extreme Lift and Improved Aeroacoustics (AMELIA)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lichtwardt, Jonathan; Paciano, Eric; Jameson, Tina; Fong, Robert; Marshall, David

2012-01-01

With the very recent advent of NASA's Environmentally Responsible Aviation Project (ERA), which is dedicated to designing aircraft that will reduce the impact of aviation on the environment, there is a need for research and development of methodologies to minimize fuel burn, emissions, and reduce community noise produced by regional airliners. ERA tackles airframe technology, propulsion technology, and vehicle systems integration to meet performance objectives in the time frame for the aircraft to be at a Technology Readiness Level (TRL) of 4-6 by the year of 2020 (deemed N+2). The proceeding project that investigated similar goals to ERA was NASA's Subsonic Fixed Wing (SFW). SFW focused on conducting research to improve prediction methods and technologies that will produce lower noise, lower emissions, and higher performing subsonic aircraft for the Next Generation Air Transportation System. The work provided in this investigation was a NASA Research Announcement (NRA) contract #NNL07AA55C funded by Subsonic Fixed Wing. The project started in 2007 with a specific goal of conducting a large-scale wind tunnel test along with the development of new and improved predictive codes for the advanced powered-lift concepts. Many of the predictive codes were incorporated to refine the wind tunnel model outer mold line design. The large scale wind tunnel test goal was to investigate powered lift technologies and provide an experimental database to validate current and future modeling techniques. Powered-lift concepts investigated were Circulation Control (CC) wing in conjunction with over-the-wing mounted engines to entrain the exhaust to further increase the lift generated by CC technologies alone. The NRA was a five-year effort; during the first year the objective was to select and refine CESTOL concepts and then to complete a preliminary design of a large-scale wind tunnel model for the large scale test. During the second, third, and fourth years the large-scale wind tunnel model design would be completed, manufactured, and calibrated. During the fifth year the large scale wind tunnel test was conducted. This technical memo will describe all phases of the Advanced Model for Extreme Lift and Improved Aeroacoustics (AMELIA) project and provide a brief summary of the background and modeling efforts involved in the NRA. The conceptual designs considered for this project and the decision process for the selected configuration adapted for a wind tunnel model will be briefly discussed. The internal configuration of AMELIA, and the internal measurements chosen in order to satisfy the requirements of obtaining a database of experimental data to be used for future computational model validations. The external experimental techniques that were employed during the test, along with the large-scale wind tunnel test facility are covered in great detail. Experimental measurements in the database include forces and moments, and surface pressure distributions, local skin friction measurements, boundary and shear layer velocity profiles, far-field acoustic data and noise signatures from turbofan propulsion simulators. Results and discussion of the circulation control performance, over-the-wing mounted engines, and the combined performance are also discussed in great detail.

[Privacy and public benefit in using large scale health databases].

PubMed

Yamamoto, Ryuichi

2014-01-01

In Japan, large scale heath databases were constructed in a few years, such as National Claim insurance and health checkup database (NDB) and Japanese Sentinel project. But there are some legal issues for making adequate balance between privacy and public benefit by using such databases. NDB is carried based on the act for elderly person's health care but in this act, nothing is mentioned for using this database for general public benefit. Therefore researchers who use this database are forced to pay much concern about anonymization and information security that may disturb the research work itself. Japanese Sentinel project is a national project to detecting drug adverse reaction using large scale distributed clinical databases of large hospitals. Although patients give the future consent for general such purpose for public good, it is still under discussion using insufficiently anonymized data. Generally speaking, researchers of study for public benefit will not infringe patient's privacy, but vague and complex requirements of legislation about personal data protection may disturb the researches. Medical science does not progress without using clinical information, therefore the adequate legislation that is simple and clear for both researchers and patients is strongly required. In Japan, the specific act for balancing privacy and public benefit is now under discussion. The author recommended the researchers including the field of pharmacology should pay attention to, participate in the discussion of, and make suggestion to such act or regulations.

Simulating the potential effects of climate change in two Colorado basins and at two Colorado ski areas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Battaglin, William; Hay, Lauren E.; Markstrom, Steve

2011-01-01

The mountainous areas of Colorado are used for tourism and recreation, and they provide water storage and supply for municipalities, industries, and agriculture. Recent studies suggest that water supply and tourist industries such as skiing are at risk from climate change. In this study, a distributed-parameter watershed model, the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS), is used to identify the potential effects of future climate on hydrologic conditions for two Colorado basins, the East River at Almont and the Yampa River at Steamboat Springs, and at the subbasin scale for two ski areas within those basins.Climate-change input files for PRMS were generated by modifying daily PRMS precipitation and temperature inputs with mean monthly climate-change fields of precipitation and temperature derived from five general circulation model (GCM) simulations using one current and three future carbon emission scenarios. All GCM simulations of mean daily minimum and maximum air temperature for the East and Yampa River basins indicate a relatively steady increase of up to several degrees Celsius from baseline conditions by 2094. GCM simulations of precipitation in the two basins indicate little change or trend in precipitation, but there is a large range associated with these projections. PRMS projections of basin mean daily streamflow vary by scenario but indicate a central tendency toward slight decreases, with a large range associated with these projections.Decreases in water content or changes in the spatial extent of snowpack in the East and Yampa River basins are important because of potential adverse effects on water supply and recreational activities. PRMS projections of each future scenario indicate a central tendency for decreases in basin mean snow-covered area and snowpack water equivalent, with the range in the projected decreases increasing with time. However, when examined on a monthly basis, the projected decreases are most dramatic during fall and spring. Presumably, ski area locations are picked because of a tendency to receive snow and keep snowpack relative to the surrounding area. This effect of ski area location within the basin was examined by comparing projections of March snow-covered area and snowpack water equivalent for the entire basin with more local projections for the portion of the basin that represents the ski area in the PRMS models. These projections indicate a steady decrease in March snow-covered area for the basins but only small changes in March snow-covered area at both ski areas for the three future scenarios until around 2050. After 2050, larger decreases are possible, but there is a large range in the projections of future scenarios. The rates of decrease for snowpack water equivalent and precipitation that falls as snow are similar at the basin and subbasin scale in both basins. Results from this modeling effort show that there is a wide range of possible outcomes for future snowpack conditions in Colorado. The results also highlight the differences between projections for entire basins and projections for local areas or subbasins within those basins.

Future carbon storage in harvested wood products from Ontario's Crown forests

Treesearch

Jiaxin Chen; Stephen J. Colombo; Michael T. Ter-Mikaelian; Linda S. Heath

2008-01-01

This analysis quantifies projected carbon (C) storage in harvested wood products (HWP) from Ontario's Crown forests. The large-scale forest C budget model, FORCARB-ON, was applied to estimate HWP C stock changes using the production approach defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Harvested wood volume was converted to C mass and allocated to...

Solar Technical Assistance Team Profile: Megan Day | State, Local, and

Science.gov Websites

What are your primary research interests? I'm looking into the most effective ways for local projects to aid cities in finding the most effective paths toward a clean energy future. What is the most state regulators about how solar, particularly large scale facilities, can be a very cost effective

Moving forward: Responding to and mitigating effects of the MPB epidemic [Chapter 8

Treesearch

Claudia Regan; Barry Bollenbacher; Rob Gump; Mike Hillis

2014-01-01

The final webinar in the Future Forest Webinar Series provided an example of how managers utilized available science to address questions about post-epidemic forest conditions. Assessments of current conditions and projected trends, and how these compare with historical patterns, provide important information for land management planning. Large-scale disturbance events...

Technology Innovations from NASA's Next Generation Launch Technology Program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cook, Stephen A.; Morris, Charles E. K., Jr.; Tyson, Richard W.

2004-01-01

NASA's Next Generation Launch Technology Program has been on the cutting edge of technology, improving the safety, affordability, and reliability of future space-launch-transportation systems. The array of projects focused on propulsion, airframe, and other vehicle systems. Achievements range from building miniature fuel/oxygen sensors to hot-firings of major rocket-engine systems as well as extreme thermo-mechanical testing of large-scale structures. Results to date have significantly advanced technology readiness for future space-launch systems using either airbreathing or rocket propulsion.

Comparison of future and base precipitation anomalies by SimCLIM statistical projection through ensemble approach in Pakistan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amin, Asad; Nasim, Wajid; Mubeen, Muhammad; Kazmi, Dildar Hussain; Lin, Zhaohui; Wahid, Abdul; Sultana, Syeda Refat; Gibbs, Jim; Fahad, Shah

2017-09-01

Unpredictable precipitation trends have largely influenced by climate change which prolonged droughts or floods in South Asia. Statistical analysis of monthly, seasonal, and annual precipitation trend carried out for different temporal (1996-2015 and 2041-2060) and spatial scale (39 meteorological stations) in Pakistan. Statistical downscaling model (SimCLIM) was used for future precipitation projection (2041-2060) and analyzed by statistical approach. Ensemble approach combined with representative concentration pathways (RCPs) at medium level used for future projections. The magnitude and slop of trends were derived by applying Mann-Kendal and Sen's slop statistical approaches. Geo-statistical application used to generate precipitation trend maps. Comparison of base and projected precipitation by statistical analysis represented by maps and graphical visualization which facilitate to detect trends. Results of this study projects that precipitation trend was increasing more than 70% of weather stations for February, March, April, August, and September represented as base years. Precipitation trend was decreased in February to April but increase in July to October in projected years. Highest decreasing trend was reported in January for base years which was also decreased in projected years. Greater variation in precipitation trends for projected and base years was reported in February to April. Variations in projected precipitation trend for Punjab and Baluchistan highly accredited in March and April. Seasonal analysis shows large variation in winter, which shows increasing trend for more than 30% of weather stations and this increased trend approaches 40% for projected precipitation. High risk was reported in base year pre-monsoon season where 90% of weather station shows increasing trend but in projected years this trend decreased up to 33%. Finally, the annual precipitation trend has increased for more than 90% of meteorological stations in base (1996-2015) which has decreased for projected year (2041-2060) up to 76%. These result revealed that overall precipitation trend is decreasing in future year which may prolonged the drought in 14% of weather stations under study.

Evolution of Precipitation Extremes in Three Large Ensembles of Climate Simulations - Impact of Spatial and Temporal Resolutions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martel, J. L.; Brissette, F.; Mailhot, A.; Wood, R. R.; Ludwig, R.; Frigon, A.; Leduc, M.; Turcotte, R.

2017-12-01

Recent studies indicate that the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation will increase in future climate due to global warming. In this study, we compare annual maxima precipitation series from three large ensembles of climate simulations at various spatial and temporal resolutions. The first two are at the global scale: the Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) 50-member large ensemble (CanESM2-LE) at a 2.8° resolution and the Community Earth System Model (CESM1) 40-member large ensemble (CESM1-LE) at a 1° resolution. The third ensemble is at the regional scale over both Eastern North America and Europe: the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5) 50-member large ensemble (CRCM5-LE) at a 0.11° resolution, driven at its boundaries by the CanESM-LE. The CRCM5-LE is a new ensemble issued from the ClimEx project (http://www.climex-project.org), a Québec-Bavaria collaboration. Using these three large ensembles, change in extreme precipitations over the historical (1980-2010) and future (2070-2100) periods are investigated. This results in 1 500 (30 years x 50 members for CanESM2-LE and CRCM5-LE) and 1200 (30 years x 40 members for CESM1-LE) simulated years over both the historical and future periods. Using these large datasets, the empirical daily (and sub-daily for CRCM5-LE) extreme precipitation quantiles for large return periods ranging from 2 to 100 years are computed. Results indicate that daily extreme precipitations generally will increase over most land grid points of both domains according to the three large ensembles. Regarding the CRCM5-LE, the increase in sub-daily extreme precipitations will be even more important than the one observed for daily extreme precipitations. Considering that many public infrastructures have lifespans exceeding 75 years, the increase in extremes has important implications on service levels of water infrastructures and public safety.

Computational Everyday Life Human Behavior Model as Servicable Knowledge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Motomura, Yoichi; Nishida, Yoshifumi

A project called `Open life matrix' is not only a research activity but also real problem solving as an action research. This concept is realized by large-scale data collection, probabilistic causal structure model construction and information service providing using the model. One concrete outcome of this project is childhood injury prevention activity in new team consist of hospital, government, and many varieties of researchers. The main result from the project is a general methodology to apply probabilistic causal structure models as servicable knowledge for action research. In this paper, the summary of this project and future direction to emphasize action research driven by artificial intelligence technology are discussed.

Hyper-Spectral Networking Concept of Operations and Future Air Traffic Management Simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Davis, Paul; Boisvert, Benjamin

2017-01-01

The NASA sponsored Hyper-Spectral Communications and Networking for Air Traffic Management (ATM) (HSCNA) project is conducting research to improve the operational efficiency of the future National Airspace System (NAS) through diverse and secure multi-band, multi-mode, and millimeter-wave (mmWave) wireless links. Worldwide growth of air transportation and the coming of unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) will increase air traffic density and complexity. Safe coordination of aircraft will require more capable technologies for communications, navigation, and surveillance (CNS). The HSCNA project will provide a foundation for technology and operational concepts to accommodate a significantly greater number of networked aircraft. This paper describes two of the HSCNA projects technical challenges. The first technical challenge is to develop a multi-band networking concept of operations (ConOps) for use in multiple phases of flight and all communication link types. This ConOps will integrate the advanced technologies explored by the HSCNA project and future operational concepts into a harmonized vision of future NAS communications and networking. The second technical challenge discussed is to conduct simulations of future ATM operations using multi-bandmulti-mode networking and technologies. Large-scale simulations will assess the impact, compared to todays system, of the new and integrated networks and technologies under future air traffic demand.

More robust regional precipitation projection from selected CMIP5 models based on multiple-dimensional metrics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qian, Y.; Wang, L.; Leung, L. R.; Lin, G.; Lu, J.; Gao, Y.; Zhang, Y.

2017-12-01

Projecting precipitation changes is challenging because of incomplete understanding of the climate system and biases and uncertainty in climate models. In East Asia where summer precipitation is dominantly influenced by the monsoon circulation and the global models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), however, give various projection of precipitation change for 21th century. It is critical for community to know which models' projection are more reliable in response to natural and anthropogenic forcings. In this study we defined multiple-dimensional metrics, measuring the model performance in simulating the present-day of large-scale circulation, regional precipitation and relationship between them. The large-scale circulation features examined in this study include the lower tropospheric southwesterly winds, the western North Pacific subtropical high, the South China Sea Subtropical High, and the East Asian westerly jet in the upper troposphere. Each of these circulation features transport moisture to East Asia, enhancing the moist static energy and strengthening the Meiyu moisture front that is the primary mechanism for precipitation generation in eastern China. Based on these metrics, 30 models in CMIP5 ensemble are classified into three groups. Models in the top performing group projected regional precipitation patterns that are more similar to each other than the bottom or middle performing group and consistently projected statistically significant increasing trends in two of the large-scale circulation indices and precipitation. In contrast, models in the bottom or middle performing group projected small drying or no trends in precipitation. We also find the models that only reasonably reproduce the observed precipitation climatology does not guarantee more reliable projection of future precipitation because good simulation skill could be achieved through compensating errors from multiple sources. Herein the potential for more robust projections of precipitation changes at regional scale is demonstrated through the use of discriminating metric to subsample the multi-model ensemble. The results from this study provides insights for how to select models from CMIP ensemble to project regional climate and hydrological cycle changes.

A generic hydroeconomic model to assess future water scarcity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neverre, Noémie; Dumas, Patrice

2015-04-01

We developed a generic hydroeconomic model able to confront future water supply and demand on a large scale, taking into account man-made reservoirs. The assessment is done at the scale of river basins, using only globally available data; the methodology can thus be generalized. On the supply side, we evaluate the impacts of climate change on water resources. The available quantity of water at each site is computed using the following information: runoff is taken from the outputs of CNRM climate model (Dubois et al., 2010), reservoirs are located using Aquastat, and the sub-basin flow-accumulation area of each reservoir is determined based on a Digital Elevation Model (HYDRO1k). On the demand side, agricultural and domestic demands are projected in terms of both quantity and economic value. For the agricultural sector, globally available data on irrigated areas and crops are combined in order to determine irrigated crops localization. Then, crops irrigation requirements are computed for the different stages of the growing season using Allen (1998) method with Hargreaves potential evapotranspiration. Irrigation water economic value is based on a yield comparison approach between rainfed and irrigated crops. Potential irrigated and rainfed yields are taken from LPJmL (Blondeau et al., 2007), or from FAOSTAT by making simple assumptions on yield ratios. For the domestic sector, we project the combined effects of demographic growth, economic development and water cost evolution on future demands. The method consists in building three-blocks inverse demand functions where volume limits of the blocks evolve with the level of GDP per capita. The value of water along the demand curve is determined from price-elasticity, price and demand data from the literature, using the point-expansion method, and from water costs data. Then projected demands are confronted to future water availability. Operating rules of the reservoirs and water allocation between demands are based on the maximization of water benefits, over time and space. A parameterisation-simulation-optimisation approach is used. This gives a projection of future water scarcity in the different locations and an estimation of the associated direct economic losses from unsatisfied demands. This generic hydroeconomic model can be easily applied to large-scale regions, in particular developing regions where little reliable data is available. We will present an application to Algeria, up to the 2050 horizon.

Future Freshwater Stress on Small Islands: Population, Aridity and Global Warming Targets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karnauskas, K. B.; Schleussner, C. F.; Donnelly, J. P.; Anchukaitis, K. J.

2017-12-01

Small island developing states (SIDS) face multiple threats from anthropogenic climate change, including potential changes in freshwater resource availability. Future freshwater stress, including geographic and seasonal variability, has important implications for climate change adaptation scenarios for vulnerable human populations living on islands across the world ocean. Due to a mismatch in spatial scale between SIDS landforms and the horizontal resolution of global climate models (GCMs), SIDS are mostly unaccounted for in GCMs that are used to make future projections of global climate change and its regional impacts. Specific approaches are required to address this gap between broad-scale model projections and regional, policy-relevant outcomes. Here we apply a recently developed methodology to project future changes in aridity in combination with population projections associated with different shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) to evaluate overall changes in freshwater stress in SIDS at warming levels of 1.5°C and 2°C above pre-industrial levels. By accounting for evaporative demand a posteriori, we reveal a robust yet spatially variable tendency towards increasing aridity for 16 million people living on islands by mid-century. Although about half of the islands are projected to experience increased rainfall—predominantly in the deep tropics—projected changes in evaporation are more uniform, shifting the global distribution of changes in island freshwater balance towards greater aridity. In many cases, the magnitude of projected drying is comparable to the amplitude of the estimated observed interannual variability, with important consequences for extreme events. While we find that future population growth will dominate changes in projected freshwater stress especially towards the end of the century, projected changes in aridity are found to compound freshwater stress for the vast majority of SIDS. Particularly across the Caribbean region, a substantial fraction ( 25%) of the large overall freshwater stress projected under 2°C at 2030 can be avoided by limiting global warming to 1.5°C. Our findings add to a growing body of literature on the difference in climate impacts between 1.5°C and 2°C and underscore the need for regionally specific analysis.

Coal resources, reserves and peak coal production in the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Milici, Robert C.; Flores, Romeo M.; Stricker, Gary D.

2013-01-01

In spite of its large endowment of coal resources, recent studies have indicated that United States coal production is destined to reach a maximum and begin an irreversible decline sometime during the middle of the current century. However, studies and assessments illustrating coal reserve data essential for making accurate forecasts of United States coal production have not been compiled on a national basis. As a result, there is a great deal of uncertainty in the accuracy of the production forecasts. A very large percentage of the coal mined in the United States comes from a few large-scale mines (mega-mines) in the Powder River Basin of Wyoming and Montana. Reported reserves at these mines do not account for future potential reserves or for future development of technology that may make coal classified currently as resources into reserves in the future. In order to maintain United States coal production at or near current levels for an extended period of time, existing mines will eventually have to increase their recoverable reserves and/or new large-scale mines will have to be opened elsewhere. Accordingly, in order to facilitate energy planning for the United States, this paper suggests that probabilistic assessments of the remaining coal reserves in the country would improve long range forecasts of coal production. As it is in United States coal assessment projects currently being conducted, a major priority of probabilistic assessments would be to identify the numbers and sizes of remaining large blocks of coal capable of supporting large-scale mining operations for extended periods of time and to conduct economic evaluations of those resources.

Managing aquatic ecosystems and water resources under multiple stress--an introduction to the MARS project.

PubMed

Hering, Daniel; Carvalho, Laurence; Argillier, Christine; Beklioglu, Meryem; Borja, Angel; Cardoso, Ana Cristina; Duel, Harm; Ferreira, Teresa; Globevnik, Lidija; Hanganu, Jenica; Hellsten, Seppo; Jeppesen, Erik; Kodeš, Vit; Solheim, Anne Lyche; Nõges, Tiina; Ormerod, Steve; Panagopoulos, Yiannis; Schmutz, Stefan; Venohr, Markus; Birk, Sebastian

2015-01-15

Water resources globally are affected by a complex mixture of stressors resulting from a range of drivers, including urban and agricultural land use, hydropower generation and climate change. Understanding how stressors interfere and impact upon ecological status and ecosystem services is essential for developing effective River Basin Management Plans and shaping future environmental policy. This paper details the nature of these problems for Europe's water resources and the need to find solutions at a range of spatial scales. In terms of the latter, we describe the aims and approaches of the EU-funded project MARS (Managing Aquatic ecosystems and water Resources under multiple Stress) and the conceptual and analytical framework that it is adopting to provide this knowledge, understanding and tools needed to address multiple stressors. MARS is operating at three scales: At the water body scale, the mechanistic understanding of stressor interactions and their impact upon water resources, ecological status and ecosystem services will be examined through multi-factorial experiments and the analysis of long time-series. At the river basin scale, modelling and empirical approaches will be adopted to characterise relationships between multiple stressors and ecological responses, functions, services and water resources. The effects of future land use and mitigation scenarios in 16 European river basins will be assessed. At the European scale, large-scale spatial analysis will be carried out to identify the relationships amongst stress intensity, ecological status and service provision, with a special focus on large transboundary rivers, lakes and fish. The project will support managers and policy makers in the practical implementation of the Water Framework Directive (WFD), of related legislation and of the Blueprint to Safeguard Europe's Water Resources by advising the 3rd River Basin Management Planning cycle, the revision of the WFD and by developing new tools for diagnosing and predicting multiple stressors. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Methods for projecting large-scale area changes for U.S. land uses and land covers: the past and the future.

Treesearch

Ralph J. Alig

2004-01-01

Over the past 25 years, renewable resource assessments have addressed demand, supply, and inventory of various renewable resources in increasingly sophisticated fashion, including simulation and optimization analyses of area changes in land uses (e.g., urbanization) and land covers (e.g., plantations vs. naturally regenerated forests). This synthesis reviews related...

Models projecting the fate of fish populations under climate change need to be based on valid physiological mechanisms.

PubMed

Lefevre, Sjannie; McKenzie, David J; Nilsson, Göran E

2017-09-01

Some recent modelling papers projecting smaller fish sizes and catches in a warmer future are based on erroneous assumptions regarding (i) the scaling of gills with body mass and (ii) the energetic cost of 'maintenance'. Assumption (i) posits that insurmountable geometric constraints prevent respiratory surface areas from growing as fast as body volume. It is argued that these constraints explain allometric scaling of energy metabolism, whereby larger fishes have relatively lower mass-specific metabolic rates. Assumption (ii) concludes that when fishes reach a certain size, basal oxygen demands will not be met, because of assumption (i). We here demonstrate unequivocally, by applying accepted physiological principles with reference to the existing literature, that these assumptions are not valid. Gills are folded surfaces, where the scaling of surface area to volume is not constrained by spherical geometry. The gill surface area can, in fact, increase linearly in proportion to gill volume and body mass. We cite the large body of evidence demonstrating that respiratory surface areas in fishes reflect metabolic needs, not vice versa, which explains the large interspecific variation in scaling of gill surface areas. Finally, we point out that future studies basing their predictions on models should incorporate factors for scaling of metabolic rate and for temperature effects on metabolism, which agree with measured values, and should account for interspecific variation in scaling and temperature effects. It is possible that some fishes will become smaller in the future, but to make reliable predictions the underlying mechanisms need to be identified and sought elsewhere than in geometric constraints on gill surface area. Furthermore, to ensure that useful information is conveyed to the public and policymakers about the possible effects of climate change, it is necessary to improve communication and congruity between fish physiologists and fisheries scientists. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The Mekong's future flows under multiple driving factors: How future climate change, hydropower developments and irrigation expansion drive hydrological changes?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoang, L. P.; van Vliet, M. T. H.; Lauri, H.; Kummu, M.; Koponen, J.; Supit, I.; Leemans, R.; Kabat, P.; Ludwig, F.

2016-12-01

The Mekong River's flows and water resources are in many ways essential for sustaining economic growths, flood security of about 70 million people and biodiversity in one of the world's most ecologically productive wetland systems. The river's hydrological cycle, however, are increasingly perturbed by climate change, large-scale hydropower developments and rapid irrigated land expansions. This study presents an integrated impact assessment to characterize and quantify future hydrological changes induced by these driving factors, both separately and combined. We have integrated a crop simulation module and a hydropower dam module into a distributed hydrological model (VMod) and simulated the Mekong's hydrology under multiple climate change and development scenarios. Our results show that the Mekong's hydrological regime will experience substantial changes caused by the considered factors. Magnitude-wise, hydropower dam developments exhibit the largest impacts on river flows, with projected higher flows (up to +35%) during the dry season and lower flows (up to -44%) during the wet season. Annual flow changes caused by the dams, however, are relatively marginal. In contrast to this, climate change is projected to increase the Mekong's annual flows (up to +16%) while irrigated land expansions result in annual flow reductions (-1% to -3%). Combining the impacts of these three drivers, we found that river flow changes, especially those at the monthly scale, largely differ from changes under the individual driving factors. This is explained by large differences in impacts' magnitudes and contrasting impacts' directions for the individual drivers. We argue that the Mekong's future flows are likely driven by multiple factors and thus advocate for integrated assessment approaches and tools that support proper considerations of these factors and their interplays.

Statistical model of exotic rotational correlations in emergent space-time

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hogan, Craig; Kwon, Ohkyung; Richardson, Jonathan

2017-06-06

A statistical model is formulated to compute exotic rotational correlations that arise as inertial frames and causal structure emerge on large scales from entangled Planck scale quantum systems. Noncommutative quantum dynamics are represented by random transverse displacements that respect causal symmetry. Entanglement is represented by covariance of these displacements in Planck scale intervals defined by future null cones of events on an observer's world line. Light that propagates in a nonradial direction inherits a projected component of the exotic rotational correlation that accumulates as a random walk in phase. A calculation of the projection and accumulation leads to exact predictionsmore » for statistical properties of exotic Planck scale correlations in an interferometer of any configuration. The cross-covariance for two nearly co-located interferometers is shown to depart only slightly from the autocovariance. Specific examples are computed for configurations that approximate realistic experiments, and show that the model can be rigorously tested.« less

The U. S. DOE Carbon Storage Program: Status and Future Directions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Damiani, D.

2016-12-01

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) is taking steps to reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions through clean energy innovation, including carbon capture and storage (CCS) research. The Office of Fossil Energy Carbon Storage Program is focused on ensuring the safe and permanent storage and/or utilization of CO2 captured from stationary sources. The Program is developing and advancing geologic storage technologies both onshore and offshore that will significantly improve the effectiveness of CCS, reduce the cost of implementation, and be ready for widespread commercial deployment in the 2025-2035 timeframe. The technology development and field testing conducted through this Program will be used to benefit the existing and future fleet of fossil fuel power generating and industrial facilities by creating tools to increase our understanding of geologic reservoirs appropriate for CO2 storage and the behavior of CO2 in the subsurface. The Program is evaluating the potential for storage in depleted oil and gas reservoirs, saline formations, unmineable coal, organic-rich shale formations, and basalt formations. Since 1997, DOE's Carbon Storage Program has significantly advanced the CCS knowledge base through a diverse portfolio of applied research projects. The Core Storage R&D research component focuses on analytic studies, laboratory, and pilot- scale research to develop technologies that can improve wellbore integrity, increase reservoir storage efficiency, improve management of reservoir pressure, ensure storage permanence, quantitatively assess risks, and identify and mitigate potential release of CO2 in all types of storage formations. The Storage Field Management component focuses on scale-up of CCS and involves field validation of technology options, including large-volume injection field projects at pre-commercial scale to confirm system performance and economics. Future research involves commercial-scale characterization for regionally significant storage locations capable of storing from 50 to 100 million metric tons of CO2 in a saline formation. These projects will lay the foundation for fully integrated carbon capture and storage demonstrations of future first of a kind (FOAK) coal power projects. Future research will also bring added focus on offshore CCS.

Projections of the Ganges-Brahmaputra precipitation: downscaled from GCM predictors

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pervez, Md Shahriar; Henebry, Geoffrey M.

2014-01-01

Downscaling Global Climate Model (GCM) projections of future climate is critical for impact studies. Downscaling enables use of GCM experiments for regional scale impact studies by generating regionally specific forecasts connecting global scale predictions and regional scale dynamics. We employed the Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) to downscale 21st century precipitation for two data-sparse hydrologically challenging river basins in South Asia—the Ganges and the Brahmaputra. We used CGCM3.1 by Canadian Center for Climate Modeling and Analysis version 3.1 predictors in downscaling the precipitation. Downscaling was performed on the basis of established relationships between historical Global Summary of Day observed precipitation records from 43 stations and National Center for Environmental Prediction re-analysis large scale atmospheric predictors. Although the selection of predictors was challenging during the set-up of SDSM, they were found to be indicative of important physical forcings in the basins. The precipitation of both basins was largely influenced by geopotential height: the Ganges precipitation was modulated by the U component of the wind and specific humidity at 500 and 1000 h Pa pressure levels; whereas, the Brahmaputra precipitation was modulated by the V component of the wind at 850 and 1000 h Pa pressure levels. The evaluation of the SDSM performance indicated that model accuracy for reproducing precipitation at the monthly scale was acceptable, but at the daily scale the model inadequately simulated some daily extreme precipitation events. Therefore, while the downscaled precipitation may not be the suitable input to analyze future extreme flooding or drought events, it could be adequate for analysis of future freshwater availability. Analysis of the CGCM3.1 downscaled precipitation projection with respect to observed precipitation reveals that the precipitation regime in each basin may be significantly impacted by climate change. Precipitation during and after the monsoon is likely to increase in both basins under the A1B and A2 emission scenarios; whereas, the pre-monsoon precipitation is likely to decrease. Peak monsoon precipitation is likely to shift from July to August, and may impact the livelihoods of large rural populations linked to subsistence agriculture in the basins. Uncertainty analysis of the downscaled precipitation indicated that the uncertainty in the downscaled precipitation was less than the uncertainty in the original CGCM3.1 precipitation; hence, the CGCM3.1 downscaled precipitation was a better input for the regional hydrological impact studies. However, downscaled precipitation from multiple GCMs is suggested for comprehensive impact studies.

Dustfall design of open coal yard in the power plant-a case study on the closed reconstruction project of coal storage yard in shengli power plant

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Kunpeng; Ji, Weidong; Zhang, Feifei; Yu, Wei; Zheng, Runqing

2018-02-01

This thesis, based on the closed reconstruction project of the coal storage yard of Shengli Power Plant which is affiliated to Sinopec Shengli Petroleum Administration, first makes an analysis on the significance of current dustfall reconstruction of open coal yard, then summarizes the methods widely adopted in the dustfall of large-scale open coal storage yard of current thermal power plant as well as their advantages and disadvantages, and finally focuses on this project, aiming at providing some reference and assistance to the future closed reconstruction project of open coal storage yard in thermal power plant.

Research at NASA's NFAC wind tunnels

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Edenborough, H. Kipling

1990-01-01

The National Full-Scale Aerodynamics Complex (NFAC) is a unique combination of wind tunnels that allow the testing of aerodynamic and dynamic models at full or large scale. It can even accommodate actual aircraft with their engines running. Maintaining full-scale Reynolds numbers and testing with surface irregularities, protuberances, and control surface gaps that either closely match the full-scale or indeed are those of the full-scale aircraft help produce test data that accurately predict what can be expected from future flight investigations. This complex has grown from the venerable 40- by 80-ft wind tunnel that has served for over 40 years helping researchers obtain data to better understand the aerodynamics of a wide range of aircraft from helicopters to the space shuttle. A recent modification to the tunnel expanded its maximum speed capabilities, added a new 80- by 120-ft test section and provided extensive acoustic treatment. The modification is certain to make the NFAC an even more useful facility for NASA's ongoing research activities. A brief background is presented on the original facility and the kind of testing that has been accomplished using it through the years. A summary of the modification project and the measured capabilities of the two test sections is followed by a review of recent testing activities and of research projected for the future.

Locally Downscaled and Spatially Customizable Climate Data for Historical and Future Periods for North America

PubMed Central

Wang, Tongli; Hamann, Andreas; Spittlehouse, Dave; Carroll, Carlos

2016-01-01

Large volumes of gridded climate data have become available in recent years including interpolated historical data from weather stations and future predictions from general circulation models. These datasets, however, are at various spatial resolutions that need to be converted to scales meaningful for applications such as climate change risk and impact assessments or sample-based ecological research. Extracting climate data for specific locations from large datasets is not a trivial task and typically requires advanced GIS and data management skills. In this study, we developed a software package, ClimateNA, that facilitates this task and provides a user-friendly interface suitable for resource managers and decision makers as well as scientists. The software locally downscales historical and future monthly climate data layers into scale-free point estimates of climate values for the entire North American continent. The software also calculates a large number of biologically relevant climate variables that are usually derived from daily weather data. ClimateNA covers 1) 104 years of historical data (1901–2014) in monthly, annual, decadal and 30-year time steps; 2) three paleoclimatic periods (Last Glacial Maximum, Mid Holocene and Last Millennium); 3) three future periods (2020s, 2050s and 2080s); and 4) annual time-series of model projections for 2011–2100. Multiple general circulation models (GCMs) were included for both paleo and future periods, and two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and 8.5) were chosen for future climate data. PMID:27275583

Locally Downscaled and Spatially Customizable Climate Data for Historical and Future Periods for North America.

PubMed

Wang, Tongli; Hamann, Andreas; Spittlehouse, Dave; Carroll, Carlos

2016-01-01

Large volumes of gridded climate data have become available in recent years including interpolated historical data from weather stations and future predictions from general circulation models. These datasets, however, are at various spatial resolutions that need to be converted to scales meaningful for applications such as climate change risk and impact assessments or sample-based ecological research. Extracting climate data for specific locations from large datasets is not a trivial task and typically requires advanced GIS and data management skills. In this study, we developed a software package, ClimateNA, that facilitates this task and provides a user-friendly interface suitable for resource managers and decision makers as well as scientists. The software locally downscales historical and future monthly climate data layers into scale-free point estimates of climate values for the entire North American continent. The software also calculates a large number of biologically relevant climate variables that are usually derived from daily weather data. ClimateNA covers 1) 104 years of historical data (1901-2014) in monthly, annual, decadal and 30-year time steps; 2) three paleoclimatic periods (Last Glacial Maximum, Mid Holocene and Last Millennium); 3) three future periods (2020s, 2050s and 2080s); and 4) annual time-series of model projections for 2011-2100. Multiple general circulation models (GCMs) were included for both paleo and future periods, and two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and 8.5) were chosen for future climate data.

Geosphere-biosphere interactions in European Protected Areas: a view from the H2020 ECOPOTENTIAL Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Provenzale, Antonello; Beierkuhnlein, Carl; Karnieli, Arnon; Marangi, Carmela; Giamberini, Mariasilvia; Imperio, Simona

2017-04-01

The large H2020 project ECOPOTENTIAL (2015-2019, 47 partners, contributing to GEO and GEOSS - http://www.ecopotential-project.eu/) is devoted to making best use of remote sensing and in situ data to improve future ecosystem benefits, adopting the view of ecosystems as one physical system with their environment, focusing on geosphere-biosphere interactions, Earth Critical Zone dynamics, Macrosystem Ecology and cross-scale interactions, the effect of extreme events and using Essential (Climate, Biodiversity and Ocean) Variables as descriptors of change. In ECOPOTENTIAL, remote sensing and in situ data are collected, processed and used for a better understanding of the ecosystem dynamics, analysing and modelling the effects of global changes on ecosystem functions and services, over an array of different ecosystem types, including mountain, marine, coastal, arid and semi-arid ecosystems. The project focuses on a network of Protected Areas of international relevance, that is representative of the range of environmental and biogeographical conditions characterizing Europe. Some of the activities of the project are devoted to detect and quantify the changes taking place in the Protected Areas, through the analysis of remote sensing observations, in-situ data and gridded climatic datasets. Likewise, the project aims at providing estimates of the future ecosystem conditions in different climate and environmental change scenarios. In all such endeavours, one is faced with cross-scale issues: downscaling of climate information to drive ecosystem response, and upscaling of local ecosystem changes to larger scales. So far, the analysis has been conducted mainly by using traditional methods, but there is wide room for improvement by using more refined approaches. In particular, a crucial question is how to upscale the information gained at single-site scale to larger, regional or continental scale, an issue that could benefit from using, for example, complex network analysis.

Direct and indirect effects of climate change on projected future fire regimes in the western United States.

PubMed

Liu, Zhihua; Wimberly, Michael C

2016-01-15

We asked two research questions: (1) What are the relative effects of climate change and climate-driven vegetation shifts on different components of future fire regimes? (2) How does incorporating climate-driven vegetation change into future fire regime projections alter the results compared to projections based only on direct climate effects? We used the western United States (US) as study area to answer these questions. Future (2071-2100) fire regimes were projected using statistical models to predict spatial patterns of occurrence, size and spread for large fires (>400 ha) and a simulation experiment was conducted to compare the direct climatic effects and the indirect effects of climate-driven vegetation change on fire regimes. Results showed that vegetation change amplified climate-driven increases in fire frequency and size and had a larger overall effect on future total burned area in the western US than direct climate effects. Vegetation shifts, which were highly sensitive to precipitation pattern changes, were also a strong determinant of the future spatial pattern of burn rates and had different effects on fire in currently forested and grass/shrub areas. Our results showed that climate-driven vegetation change can exert strong localized effects on fire occurrence and size, which in turn drive regional changes in fire regimes. The effects of vegetation change for projections of the geographic patterns of future fire regimes may be at least as important as the direct effects of climate change, emphasizing that accounting for changing vegetation patterns in models of future climate-fire relationships is necessary to provide accurate projections at continental to global scales. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Vulnerability of U.S. water supply to shortage: a technical document supporting the Forest Service 2010 RPA Assessment

Treesearch

Romano Foti; Jorge A. Ramirez; Thomas C. Brown

2012-01-01

Comparison of projected future water demand and supply across the conterminous United States indicates that, due to improving efficiency in water use, expected increases in population and economic activity do not by themselves pose a serious threat of large-scale water shortages. However, climate change can increase water demand and decrease water supply to the extent...

Government Support for Synthetic Pipeline Gas Uncertain and Needs Attention.

DTIC Science & Technology

1982-05-14

coal gas. Tear Sheetii RECOMMENDATIONS GAO recommends that the Secretary of Energy - --establish a plan to guide future support of high-Btu coal...recognizes that there are basic dif- ferences expected from large and small scale research projects, GAO believes that the report recognizes these...transportation, including the pipeline system. In its price-setting, or ratemaking function, it represents the interests of gas customers, sometimes

Increasing Influence of Societal Response Variables in Coastal Evolution Projections (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gayes, P. T.; McCoy, C. A.; Pietrafesa, L. J.

2010-12-01

Recent efforts to project changes in coastal erosion and vulnerability of the state of South Carolina’s (SC’s) oceanfront for different scenarios of future sea level have reinforced the significance of the influence of societal modifications and response to past and anticipated coastal change in these systems. For large reaches of the SC coast human interactions have been a dominant signal driving coastal change across annual to decadal scales. Over the last 20 years, SC’s shoreline has been advanced seawards in many areas due to a combination of sustained societal commitment to beach nourishment and to a lull in atmospheric storms; reversing the long-term erosional trend of shoreline change. Adjacent areas not yet threatened or where coastal defense is unsupported economically have continued to migrate landwards. Locally, efforts focused on stabilizing the subaerial beach have not moderated long-term shoreward migration of the shoreface changing the overall morphology of the coastal boundary waves and currents are operating against. These societal effects, coupled with realistic, substative assessments of future atmospheric storm activity and sea level variability, both over scales of seasons to multi-decades, require consideration to realistically project future coastal behavior across time and spatial scales for planning and resource management. As with future climate and sea level variability effects on the shoreline, the scale and intensity of societal response is not static or precisely projected spatially and temporally into the future. With continued expansion of coastal development and erosion into previously lightly developed and defended coastal areas, societal influences should be expected to increase. Increasing cost of larger scale defenses will likely drive pressure for hardened structures to enhance ”softer” nourishment strategies. However, this strategy would further modify the ability of nature to respond to natural forces. Nourishment programs are strongly cyclic and can act in or out of phase with natural cyclic (inlet migration, sea level variability) or stochastic (storms) drivers with significant effects on coastal response and predictions of coastal behavior. Economic cycles and events may similarly moderate timing and scale of coastal defense relative to natural drivers. Societal decisions to not, enhance and or even abandon and remove existing engineering structures as future forces and costs increase, can result in a disproportional response and potentially failure of a section of coast. Some communities have expressed confidence in the ability to maintain the oceanfront shoreline against most projections of sea level rise over the next 100 years. The long-term trend in sea level change may be less important than naturally occurring regional scale, seasonal to inter-annual to multi-decadal variability in sea level; and these are complex but deterministic. There is less confidence, however, in the ability to combat passive submergence and associated flooding issues behind the immediate oceanfront. To the extent that may influence commitment to defend the oceanfront could strongly influence coastal behavior and stability in the long term.

Nation-wide assessment of climate change impacts on crops in the Philippines and Peru as part of multi-disciplinary modelling framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fujisawa, Mariko; Kanamaru, Hideki

2016-04-01

Agriculture is vulnerable to environmental changes, and climate change has been recognized as one of the most devastating factors. In many developing countries, however, few studies have focused on nation-wide assessment of crop yield and crop suitability in the future, and hence there is a large pressure on science to provide policy makers with solid predictions for major crops in the countries in support of climate risk management policies and programmes. FAO has developed the tool MOSAICC (Modelling System for Agricultural Impacts of Climate Change) where statistical climate downscaling is combined with crop yield projections under climate change scenarios. Three steps are required to get the results: 1. The historical meteorological data such as temperature and precipitation for about 30 years were collected, and future climates were statistically downscaled to the local scale, 2. The historical crop yield data were collected and regression functions were made to estimate the yield by using observed climatic data and water balance during the growing period for each crop, and 3. The yield changes in the future were estimated by using the future climate data, produced by the first step, as an input to the yield regression functions. The yield was first simulated at sub-national scale and aggregated to national scale, which is intended to provide national policies with adaptation options. The methodology considers future changes in characteristics of extreme weather events as the climate projections are on daily scale while crop simulations are on 10-daily scale. Yields were simulated with two greenhouse gas concentration pathways (RCPs) for three GCMs per crop to account for uncertainties in projections. The crop assessment constitutes a larger multi-disciplinary assessment of climate change impacts on agriculture and vulnerability of livelihoods in terms of food security (e.g. water resources, agriculture market, household-level food security from socio-economic perspective). In our presentation we will show the cases of Peru and the Philippines, and discuss the implications for agriculture policies and risk management.

Maritime transport in the Gulf of Bothnia 2030.

PubMed

Pekkarinen, Annukka; Repka, Sari

2014-10-01

Scenarios for shipping traffic in the Gulf of Bothnia (GoB) by 2030 are described in order to identify the main factors that should be taken into account when preparing a Maritime Spatial Plan (MSP) for the area. The application of future research methodology to planning of marine areas was also assessed. The methods include applying existing large scale quantitative scenarios for maritime traffic in the GoB and using real-time Delphi in which an expert group discussed different factors contributing to future maritime traffic in the GoB to find out the probability and significance of the factors having an impact on maritime traffic. MSP was tested on transnational scale in the Bothnian sea area as a pilot project.

The asymmetric impact of global warming on US drought types and distributions in a large ensemble of 97 hydro-climatic simulations.

PubMed

Huang, Shengzhi; Leng, Guoyong; Huang, Qiang; Xie, Yangyang; Liu, Saiyan; Meng, Erhao; Li, Pei

2017-07-19

Projection of future drought is often involved large uncertainties from climate models, emission scenarios as well as drought definitions. In this study, we investigate changes in future droughts in the conterminous United States based on 97 1/8 degree hydro-climate model projections. Instead of focusing on a specific drought type, we investigate changes in meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological drought as well as the concurrences. Agricultural and hydrological droughts are projected to become more frequent with increase in global mean temperature, while less meteorological drought is expected. Changes in drought intensity scale linearly with global temperature rises under RCP8.5 scenario, indicating the potential feasibility to derive future drought severity given certain global warming amount under this scenario. Changing pattern of concurrent droughts generally follows that of agricultural and hydrological droughts. Under the 1.5 °C warming target as advocated in recent Paris agreement, several hot spot regions experiencing highest droughts are identified. Extreme droughts show similar patterns but with much larger magnitude than the climatology. This study highlights the distinct response of droughts of various types to global warming and the asymmetric impact of global warming on drought distribution resulting in a much stronger influence on extreme drought than on mean drought.

Future scenarios of land change based on empirical data and demographic trends

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Wilson, Tamara; Sharygin, Ethan; Sherba, Jason

2017-01-01

Changes in land use and land cover (LULC) have important and fundamental interactions with the global climate system. Top-down global scale projections of land use change have been an important component of climate change research; however, their utility at local to regional scales is often limited. The goal of this study was to develop an approach for projecting changes in LULC based on land use histories and demographic trends. We developed a set of stochastic, empirical-based projections of LULC change for the state of California, for the period 2001–2100. Land use histories and demographic trends were used to project a “business-as-usual” (BAU) scenario and three population growth scenarios. For the BAU scenario, we projected developed lands would more than double by 2100. When combined with cultivated areas, we projected a 28% increase in anthropogenic land use by 2100. As a result, natural lands were projected to decline at a rate of 139 km2 yr−1; grasslands experienced the largest net decline, followed by shrublands and forests. The amount of cultivated land was projected to decline by approximately 10%; however, the relatively modest change masked large shifts between annual and perennial crop types. Under the three population scenarios, developed lands were projected to increase 40–90% by 2100. Our results suggest that when compared to the BAU projection, scenarios based on demographic trends may underestimate future changes in LULC. Furthermore, regardless of scenario, the spatial pattern of LULC change was likely to have the greatest negative impacts on rangeland ecosystems.

Future Scenarios of Land Change Based on Empirical Data and Demographic Trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Wilson, Tamara S.; Sharygin, Ethan; Sherba, Jason T.

2017-11-01

Changes in land use and land cover (LULC) have important and fundamental interactions with the global climate system. Top-down global scale projections of land use change have been an important component of climate change research; however, their utility at local to regional scales is often limited. The goal of this study was to develop an approach for projecting changes in LULC based on land use histories and demographic trends. We developed a set of stochastic, empirical-based projections of LULC change for the state of California, for the period 2001-2100. Land use histories and demographic trends were used to project a "business-as-usual" (BAU) scenario and three population growth scenarios. For the BAU scenario, we projected developed lands would more than double by 2100. When combined with cultivated areas, we projected a 28% increase in anthropogenic land use by 2100. As a result, natural lands were projected to decline at a rate of 139 km2 yr-1; grasslands experienced the largest net decline, followed by shrublands and forests. The amount of cultivated land was projected to decline by approximately 10%; however, the relatively modest change masked large shifts between annual and perennial crop types. Under the three population scenarios, developed lands were projected to increase 40-90% by 2100. Our results suggest that when compared to the BAU projection, scenarios based on demographic trends may underestimate future changes in LULC. Furthermore, regardless of scenario, the spatial pattern of LULC change was likely to have the greatest negative impacts on rangeland ecosystems.

Responses of runoff to historical and future climate variability over China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Chuanhao; Hu, Bill X.; Huang, Guoru; Wang, Peng; Xu, Kai

2018-03-01

China has suffered some of the effects of global warming, and one of the potential implications of climate warming is the alteration of the temporal-spatial patterns of water resources. Based on the long-term (1960-2008) water budget data and climate projections from 28 global climate models (GCMs) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), this study investigated the responses of runoff (R) to historical and future climate variability in China at both grid and catchment scales using the Budyko-based elasticity method. Results show that there is a large spatial variation in precipitation (P) elasticity (from 1.1 to 3.2) and potential evaporation (PET) elasticity (from -2.2 to -0.1) across China. The P elasticity is larger in north-eastern and western China than in southern China, while the opposite occurs for PET elasticity. The catchment properties' elasticity of R appears to have a strong non-linear relationship with the mean annual aridity index and tends to be more significant in more arid regions. For the period 1960-2008, the climate contribution to R ranges from -2.4 to 3.6 % yr-1 across China, with the negative contribution in north-eastern China and the positive contribution in western China and some parts of the south-west. The results of climate projections indicate that although there is large uncertainty involved in the 28 GCMs, most project a consistent change in P (or PET) in China at the annual scale. For the period 2071-2100, the mean annual P is projected to increase in most parts of China, especially the western regions, while the mean annual PET is projected to increase in all of China, particularly the southern regions. Furthermore, greater increases are projected for higher emission scenarios. Overall, due to climate change, the arid regions and humid regions of China are projected to become wetter and drier in the period 2071-2100, respectively (relative to the baseline 1971-2000).

Implications of Climate Mitigation for Future Agricultural Production

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mueller, Christoph; Elliott, Joshua; Chryssanthacopoulos, James; Deryng, Delphine; Folberth, Christian; Pugh, Thomas A. M.; Schmid, Erwin

2015-01-01

Climate change is projected to negatively impact biophysical agricultural productivity in much of the world. Actions taken to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and mitigate future climate changes, are thus of central importance for agricultural production. Climate impacts are, however, not unidirectional; some crops in some regions (primarily higher latitudes) are projected to benefit, particularly if increased atmospheric carbon dioxide is assumed to strongly increase crop productivity at large spatial and temporal scales. Climate mitigation measures that are implemented by reducing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations lead to reductions both in the strength of climate change and in the benefits of carbon dioxide fertilization. Consequently, analysis of the effects of climate mitigation on agricultural productivity must address not only regions for which mitigation is likely to reduce or even reverse climate damages. There are also regions that are likely to see increased crop yields due to climate change, which may lose these added potentials under mitigation action. Comparing data from the most comprehensive archive of crop yield projections publicly available, we find that climate mitigation leads to overall benefits from avoided damages at the global scale and especially in many regions that are already at risk of food insecurity today. Ignoring controversial carbon dioxide fertilization effects on crop productivity, we find that for the median projection aggressive mitigation could eliminate approximately 81% of the negative impacts of climate change on biophysical agricultural productivity globally by the end of the century. In this case, the benefits of mitigation typically extend well into temperate regions, but vary by crop and underlying climate model projections. Should large benefits to crop yields from carbon dioxide fertilization be realized, the effects of mitigation become much more mixed, though still positive globally and beneficial in many food insecure countries.

Significantly Increased Extreme Precipitation Expected in Europe and North America from Extratropical Storms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hawcroft, M.; Hodges, K.; Walsh, E.; Zappa, G.

2017-12-01

For the Northern Hemisphere extratropics, changes in circulation are key to determining the impacts of climate warming. The mechanisms governing these circulation changes are complex, leading to the well documented uncertainty in projections of the future location of the mid-latitude storm tracks simulated by climate models. These storms are the primary source of precipitation for North America and Europe and generate many of the large-scale precipitation extremes associated with flooding and severe economic loss. Here, we show that in spite of the uncertainty in circulation changes, by analysing the behaviour of the storms themselves, we find entirely consistent and robust projections across an ensemble of climate models. In particular, we find that projections of change in the most intensely precipitating storms (above the present day 99th percentile) in the Northern Hemisphere are substantial and consistent across models, with large increases in the frequency of both summer (June-August, +226±68%) and winter (December-February, +186±34%) extreme storms by the end of the century. Regionally, both North America (summer +202±129%, winter +232±135%) and Europe (summer +390±148%, winter +318±114%) are projected to experience large increases in the frequency of intensely precipitating storms. These changes are thermodynamic and driven by surface warming, rather than by changes in the dynamical behaviour of the storms. Such changes in storm behaviour have the potential to have major impacts on society given intensely precipitating storms are responsible for many large-scale flooding events.

Thermodynamic and dynamic contributions to future changes in summer precipitation over Northeast Asia and Korea: a multi-RCM study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Donghyun; Min, Seung-Ki; Jin, Jonghun; Lee, Ji-Woo; Cha, Dong-Hyun; Suh, Myoung-Seok; Ahn, Joong-Bae; Hong, Song-You; Kang, Hyun-Suk; Joh, Minsu

2017-12-01

This study examines future changes in precipitation over Northeast Asia and Korea using five regional climate model (RCM) simulations driven by single global climate model (GCM) under two representative concentration pathway (RCP) emission scenarios. Focusing on summer season (June-July-August) when heavy rains dominate in this region, future changes in precipitation and associated variables including temperature, moisture, and winds are analyzed by comparing future conditions (2071-2100) with a present climate (1981-2005). Physical mechanisms are examined by analyzing moisture flux convergence at 850 hPa level, which is found to have a close relationship to precipitation and by assessing contribution of thermodynamic effect (TH, moisture increase due to warming) and dynamic effect (DY, atmospheric circulation change) to changes in the moisture flux convergence. Overall background warming and moistening are projected over the Northeast Asia with a good inter-RCM agreement, indicating dominant influence of the driving GCM. Also, RCMs consistently project increases in the frequency of heavy rains and the intensification of extreme precipitation over South Korea. Analysis of moisture flux convergence reveals competing impacts between TH and DY. The TH effect contributes to the overall increases in mean precipitation over Northeast Asia and in extreme precipitation over South Korea, irrespective of models and scenarios. However, DY effect is found to induce local-scale precipitation decreases over the central part of the Korean Peninsula with large inter-RCM and inter-scenario differences. Composite analysis of daily anomaly synoptic patterns indicates that extreme precipitation events are mainly associated with the southwest to northeast evolution of large-scale low-pressure system in both present and future climates.

Development of incremental dynamical downscaling and analysis system for regional scale climate change projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wakazuki, Yasutaka; Hara, Masayuki; Fujita, Mikiko; Ma, Xieyao; Kimura, Fujio

2013-04-01

Regional scale climate change projections play an important role in assessments of influences of global warming and include statistical (SD) and dynamical downscaling (DD) approaches. One of DD methods is developed basing on the pseudo-global-warming (PGW) method developed by Kimura and Kitoh (2007) in this study. In general, DD uses regional climate model (RCM) with lateral boundary data. In PGW method, the climatological mean difference estimated by GCMs are added to the objective analysis data (ANAL), and the data are used as the lateral boundary data in the future climate simulations. The ANAL is also used as the lateral boundary conditions of the present climate simulation. One of merits of the PGW method is that influences of biases of GCMs in RCM simulations are reduced. However, the PGW method does not treat climate changes in relative humidity, year-to-year variation, and short-term disturbances. The developing new downscaling method is named as the incremental dynamical downscaling and analysis system (InDDAS). The InDDAS treat climate changes in relative humidity and year-to-year variations. On the other hand, uncertainties of climate change projections estimated by many GCMs are large and are not negligible. Thus, stochastic regional scale climate change projections are expected for assessments of influences of global warming. Many RCM runs must be performed to make stochastic information. However, the computational costs are huge because grid size of RCM runs should be small to resolve heavy rainfall phenomena. Therefore, the number of runs to make stochastic information must be reduced. In InDDAS, climatological differences added to ANAL become statistically pre-analyzed information. The climatological differences of many GCMs are divided into mean climatological difference (MD) and departures from MD. The departures are analyzed by principal component analysis, and positive and negative perturbations (positive and negative standard deviations multiplied by departure patterns (eigenvectors)) with multi modes are added to MD. Consequently, the most likely future states are calculated with climatological difference of MD. For example, future states in cases that temperature increase is large and small are calculated with MD plus positive and negative perturbations of the first mode.

Photovoltaic Subcontract Program

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Surek, Thomas; Catalano, Anthony

1993-03-01

This report summarizes the fiscal year (FY) 1992 progress of the subcontracted photovoltaic (PV) research and development (R D) performed under the Photovoltaic Advanced Research and Development Project at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL)-formerly the Solar Energy Research Institute (SERI). The mission of the national PV program is to develop PV technology for large-scale generation of economically competitive electric power in the United States. The technical sections of the report cover the main areas of the subcontract program: the Crystalline Materials and Advanced Concepts project, the Polycrystalline Thin Films project, Amorphous Silicon Research project, the Photovoltaic Manufacturing Technology (PVMaT)more » project, PV Module and System Performance and Engineering project, and the PV Analysis and Applications Development project. Technical summaries of each of the subcontracted programs provide a discussion of approaches, major accomplishments in FY 1992, and future research directions.« less

Regional modeling of large wildfires under current and potential future climates in Colorado and Wyoming, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

West, Amanda; Kumar, Sunil; Jarnevich, Catherine S.

2016-01-01

Regional analysis of large wildfire potential given climate change scenarios is crucial to understanding areas most at risk in the future, yet wildfire models are not often developed and tested at this spatial scale. We fit three historical climate suitability models for large wildfires (i.e. ≥ 400 ha) in Colorado andWyoming using topography and decadal climate averages corresponding to wildfire occurrence at the same temporal scale. The historical models classified points of known large wildfire occurrence with high accuracies. Using a novel approach in wildfire modeling, we applied the historical models to independent climate and wildfire datasets, and the resulting sensitivities were 0.75, 0.81, and 0.83 for Maxent, Generalized Linear, and Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines, respectively. We projected the historic models into future climate space using data from 15 global circulation models and two representative concentration pathway scenarios. Maps from these geospatial analyses can be used to evaluate the changing spatial distribution of climate suitability of large wildfires in these states. April relative humidity was the most important covariate in all models, providing insight to the climate space of large wildfires in this region. These methods incorporate monthly and seasonal climate averages at a spatial resolution relevant to land management (i.e. 1 km2) and provide a tool that can be modified for other regions of North America, or adapted for other parts of the world.

Subsurface Monitoring of CO2 Sequestration - A Review and Look Forward

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daley, T. M.

2012-12-01

The injection of CO2 into subsurface formations is at least 50 years old with large-scale utilization of CO2 for enhanced oil recovery (CO2-EOR) beginning in the 1970s. Early monitoring efforts had limited measurements in available boreholes. With growing interest in CO2 sequestration beginning in the 1990's, along with growth in geophysical reservoir monitoring, small to mid-size sequestration monitoring projects began to appear. The overall goals of a subsurface monitoring plan are to provide measurement of CO2 induced changes in subsurface properties at a range of spatial and temporal scales. The range of spatial scales allows tracking of the location and saturation of the plume with varying detail, while finer temporal sampling (up to continuous) allows better understanding of dynamic processes (e.g. multi-phase flow) and constraining of reservoir models. Early monitoring of small scale pilots associated with CO2-EOR (e.g., the McElroy field and the Lost Hills field), developed many of the methodologies including tomographic imaging and multi-physics measurements. Large (reservoir) scale sequestration monitoring began with the Sleipner and Weyburn projects. Typically, large scale monitoring, such as 4D surface seismic, has limited temporal sampling due to costs. Smaller scale pilots can allow more frequent measurements as either individual time-lapse 'snapshots' or as continuous monitoring. Pilot monitoring examples include the Frio, Nagaoka and Otway pilots using repeated well logging, crosswell imaging, vertical seismic profiles and CASSM (continuous active-source seismic monitoring). For saline reservoir sequestration projects, there is typically integration of characterization and monitoring, since the sites are not pre-characterized resource developments (oil or gas), which reinforces the need for multi-scale measurements. As we move beyond pilot sites, we need to quantify CO2 plume and reservoir properties (e.g. pressure) over large scales, while still obtaining high resolution. Typically the high-resolution (spatial and temporal) tools are deployed in permanent or semi-permanent borehole installations, where special well design may be necessary, such as non-conductive casing for electrical surveys. Effective utilization of monitoring wells requires an approach of modular borehole monitoring (MBM) were multiple measurements can be made. An example is recent work at the Citronelle pilot injection site where an MBM package with seismic, fluid sampling and distributed fiber sensing was deployed. For future large scale sequestration monitoring, an adaptive borehole-monitoring program is proposed.

Studies on combined model based on functional objectives of large scale complex engineering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuting, Wang; Jingchun, Feng; Jiabao, Sun

2018-03-01

As various functions were included in large scale complex engineering, and each function would be conducted with completion of one or more projects, combined projects affecting their functions should be located. Based on the types of project portfolio, the relationship of projects and their functional objectives were analyzed. On that premise, portfolio projects-technics based on their functional objectives were introduced, then we studied and raised the principles of portfolio projects-technics based on the functional objectives of projects. In addition, The processes of combined projects were also constructed. With the help of portfolio projects-technics based on the functional objectives of projects, our research findings laid a good foundation for management of large scale complex engineering portfolio management.

Output Control Technologies for a Large-scale PV System Considering Impacts on a Power Grid

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuwayama, Akira

The mega-solar demonstration project named “Verification of Grid Stabilization with Large-scale PV Power Generation systems” had been completed in March 2011 at Wakkanai, the northernmost city of Japan. The major objectives of this project were to evaluate adverse impacts of large-scale PV power generation systems connected to the power grid and develop output control technologies with integrated battery storage system. This paper describes the outline and results of this project. These results show the effectiveness of battery storage system and also proposed output control methods for a large-scale PV system to ensure stable operation of power grids. NEDO, New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organization of Japan conducted this project and HEPCO, Hokkaido Electric Power Co., Inc managed the overall project.

Parameterizing a Large-scale Water Balance Model in Regions with Sparse Data: The Tigris-Euphrates River Basins as an Example

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flint, A. L.; Flint, L. E.

2010-12-01

The characterization of hydrologic response to current and future climates is of increasing importance to many countries around the world that rely heavily on changing and uncertain water supplies. Large-scale models that can calculate a spatially distributed water balance and elucidate groundwater recharge and surface water flows for large river basins provide a basis of estimates of changes due to future climate projections. Unfortunately many regions in the world have very sparse data for parameterization or calibration of hydrologic models. For this study, the Tigris and Euphrates River basins were used for the development of a regional water balance model at 180-m spatial scale, using the Basin Characterization Model, to estimate historical changes in groundwater recharge and surface water flows in the countries of Turkey, Syria, Iraq, Iran, and Saudi Arabia. Necessary input parameters include precipitation, air temperature, potential evapotranspiration (PET), soil properties and thickness, and estimates of bulk permeability from geologic units. Data necessary for calibration includes snow cover, reservoir volumes (from satellite data and historic, pre-reservoir elevation data) and streamflow measurements. Global datasets for precipitation, air temperature, and PET were available at very large spatial scales (50 km) through the world scale databases, finer scale WorldClim climate data, and required downscaling to fine scales for model input. Soils data were available through world scale soil maps but required parameterization on the basis of textural data to estimate soil hydrologic properties. Soil depth was interpreted from geomorphologic interpretation and maps of quaternary deposits, and geologic materials were categorized from generalized geologic maps of each country. Estimates of bedrock permeability were made on the basis of literature and data on driller’s logs and adjusted during calibration of the model to streamflow measurements where available. Results of historical water balance calculations throughout the Tigris and Euphrates River basins will be shown along with details of processing input data to provide spatial continuity and downscaling. Basic water availability analysis for recharge and runoff is readily available from a determinisitic solar radiation energy balance model and a global potential evapotranspiration model and global estimates of precipitation and air temperature. Future climate estimates can be readily applied to the same water and energy balance models to evaluate future water availability for countries around the globe.

Integrated water and renewable energy management: the Acheloos-Peneios region case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koukouvinos, Antonios; Nikolopoulos, Dionysis; Efstratiadis, Andreas; Tegos, Aristotelis; Rozos, Evangelos; Papalexiou, Simon-Michael; Dimitriadis, Panayiotis; Markonis, Yiannis; Kossieris, Panayiotis; Tyralis, Christos; Karakatsanis, Georgios; Tzouka, Katerina; Christofides, Antonis; Karavokiros, George; Siskos, Alexandros; Mamassis, Nikos; Koutsoyiannis, Demetris

2015-04-01

Within the ongoing research project "Combined Renewable Systems for Sustainable Energy Development" (CRESSENDO), we have developed a novel stochastic simulation framework for optimal planning and management of large-scale hybrid renewable energy systems, in which hydropower plays the dominant role. The methodology and associated computer tools are tested in two major adjacent river basins in Greece (Acheloos, Peneios) extending over 15 500 km2 (12% of Greek territory). River Acheloos is characterized by very high runoff and holds ~40% of the installed hydropower capacity of Greece. On the other hand, the Thessaly plain drained by Peneios - a key agricultural region for the national economy - usually suffers from water scarcity and systematic environmental degradation. The two basins are interconnected through diversion projects, existing and planned, thus formulating a unique large-scale hydrosystem whose future has been the subject of a great controversy. The study area is viewed as a hypothetically closed, energy-autonomous, system, in order to evaluate the perspectives for sustainable development of its water and energy resources. In this context we seek an efficient configuration of the necessary hydraulic and renewable energy projects through integrated modelling of the water and energy balance. We investigate several scenarios of energy demand for domestic, industrial and agricultural use, assuming that part of the demand is fulfilled via wind and solar energy, while the excess or deficit of energy is regulated through large hydroelectric works that are equipped with pumping storage facilities. The overall goal is to examine under which conditions a fully renewable energy system can be technically and economically viable for such large spatial scale.

Approaching the exa-scale: a real-world evaluation of rendering extremely large data sets

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Patchett, John M; Ahrens, James P; Lo, Li - Ta

2010-10-15

Extremely large scale analysis is becoming increasingly important as supercomputers and their simulations move from petascale to exascale. The lack of dedicated hardware acceleration for rendering on today's supercomputing platforms motivates our detailed evaluation of the possibility of interactive rendering on the supercomputer. In order to facilitate our understanding of rendering on the supercomputing platform, we focus on scalability of rendering algorithms and architecture envisioned for exascale datasets. To understand tradeoffs for dealing with extremely large datasets, we compare three different rendering algorithms for large polygonal data: software based ray tracing, software based rasterization and hardware accelerated rasterization. We presentmore » a case study of strong and weak scaling of rendering extremely large data on both GPU and CPU based parallel supercomputers using Para View, a parallel visualization tool. Wc use three different data sets: two synthetic and one from a scientific application. At an extreme scale, algorithmic rendering choices make a difference and should be considered while approaching exascale computing, visualization, and analysis. We find software based ray-tracing offers a viable approach for scalable rendering of the projected future massive data sizes.« less

Asymmetric response of tropical cyclone activity to global warming over the North Atlantic and western North Pacific from CMIP5 model projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Doo-Sun R.; Ho, Chang-Hoi; Chan, Johnny C. L.; Ha, Kyung-Ja; Kim, Hyeong-Seog; Kim, Jinwon; Kim, Joo-Hong

2017-01-01

Recent improvements in the theoretical understanding of the relationship between tropical cyclones (TCs) and their large-scale environments have resulted in significant improvements in the skill for forecasting TC activity at daily and seasonal time-scales. However, future changes in TC activity under a warmer climate remain uncertain, particularly in terms of TC genesis locations and subsequent pathways. Applying a track-pattern-based statistical model to 22 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) model runs for the historical period and the future period corresponding to the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 emissions scenarios, this study shows that in future climate conditions, TC passage frequency will decrease over the North Atlantic, particularly in the Gulf of Mexico, but will increase over the western North Pacific, especially that hits Korea and Japan. Unlike previous studies based on fine-resolution models, an ensemble mean of CMIP5 models projects an increase in TC activity in the western North Pacific, which is owing to enhanced subtropical deep convection and favorable dynamic conditions therein in conjunction with the expansion of the tropics and vice versa for the North Atlantic. Our results suggest that North America will experience less TC landfalls, while northeast Asia will experience more TCs than in the present-day climate.

Asymmetric response of tropical cyclone activity to global warming over the North Atlantic and western North Pacific from CMIP5 model projections.

PubMed

Park, Doo-Sun R; Ho, Chang-Hoi; Chan, Johnny C L; Ha, Kyung-Ja; Kim, Hyeong-Seog; Kim, Jinwon; Kim, Joo-Hong

2017-01-30

Recent improvements in the theoretical understanding of the relationship between tropical cyclones (TCs) and their large-scale environments have resulted in significant improvements in the skill for forecasting TC activity at daily and seasonal time-scales. However, future changes in TC activity under a warmer climate remain uncertain, particularly in terms of TC genesis locations and subsequent pathways. Applying a track-pattern-based statistical model to 22 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) model runs for the historical period and the future period corresponding to the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 emissions scenarios, this study shows that in future climate conditions, TC passage frequency will decrease over the North Atlantic, particularly in the Gulf of Mexico, but will increase over the western North Pacific, especially that hits Korea and Japan. Unlike previous studies based on fine-resolution models, an ensemble mean of CMIP5 models projects an increase in TC activity in the western North Pacific, which is owing to enhanced subtropical deep convection and favorable dynamic conditions therein in conjunction with the expansion of the tropics and vice versa for the North Atlantic. Our results suggest that North America will experience less TC landfalls, while northeast Asia will experience more TCs than in the present-day climate.

Experimental Demonstration of Technologies for Autonomous On-Orbit Robotic Assembly

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

LeMaster, Edward A.; Schaechter, David B.; Carrington, Connie K.

2006-01-01

The Modular Reconfigurable High Energy (MRHE) program aimed to develop technologies for the automated assembly and deployment of large-scale space structures and aggregate spacecraft. Part of the project involved creation of a terrestrial robotic testbed for validation and demonstration of these technologies and for the support of future development activities. This testbed was completed in 2005, and was thereafter used to demonstrate automated rendezvous, docking, and self-assembly tasks between a group of three modular robotic spacecraft emulators. This paper discusses the rationale for the MRHE project, describes the testbed capabilities, and presents the MRHE assembly demonstration sequence.

Developing Renewable Energy Projects Larger Than 10 MWs at Federal Facilities (Book)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

2013-03-01

To accomplish Federal goals for renewable energy, sustainability, and energy security, large-scale renewable energy projects must be developed and constructed on Federal sites at a significant scale with significant private investment. The U.S. Department of Energy's Federal Energy Management Program (FEMP) helps Federal agencies meet these goals and assists agency personnel navigate the complexities of developing such projects and attract the necessary private capital to complete them. This guide is intended to provide a general resource that will begin to develop the Federal employee's awareness and understanding of the project developer's operating environment and the private sector's awareness and understandingmore » of the Federal environment. Because the vast majority of the investment that is required to meet the goals for large-scale renewable energy projects will come from the private sector, this guide has been organized to match Federal processes with typical phases of commercial project development. The main purpose of this guide is to provide a project development framework to allow the Federal Government, private developers, and investors to work in a coordinated fashion on large-scale renewable energy projects. The framework includes key elements that describe a successful, financially attractive large-scale renewable energy project.« less

Epilepsy Genetics—Past, Present, and Future

PubMed Central

Poduri, Annapurna; Lowenstein, Daniel

2014-01-01

Human epilepsy is a common and heterogeneous condition in which genetics play an important etiological role. We begin by reviewing the past history of epilepsy genetics, a field that has traditionally included studies of pedigrees with epilepsy caused by defects in ion channels and neurotransmitters. We highlight important recent discoveries that have expanded the field beyond the realm of channels and neurotransmitters and that have challenged the notion that single genes produce single disorders. Finally, we project toward an exciting future for epilepsy genetics as large-scale collaborative phenotyping studies come face to face with new technologies in genomic medicine. PMID:21277190

Dynamical downscaling with the fifth-generation Canadian regional climate model (CRCM5) over the CORDEX Arctic domain: effect of large-scale spectral nudging and of empirical correction of sea-surface temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takhsha, Maryam; Nikiéma, Oumarou; Lucas-Picher, Philippe; Laprise, René; Hernández-Díaz, Leticia; Winger, Katja

2017-10-01

As part of the CORDEX project, the fifth-generation Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5) is used over the Arctic for climate simulations driven by reanalyses and by the MPI-ESM-MR coupled global climate model (CGCM) under the RCP8.5 scenario. The CRCM5 shows adequate skills capturing general features of mean sea level pressure (MSLP) for all seasons. Evaluating 2-m temperature (T2m) and precipitation is more problematic, because of inconsistencies between observational reference datasets over the Arctic that suffer of a sparse distribution of weather stations. In our study, we additionally investigated the effect of large-scale spectral nudging (SN) on the hindcast simulation driven by reanalyses. The analysis shows that SN is effective in reducing the spring MSLP bias, but otherwise it has little impact. We have also conducted another experiment in which the CGCM-simulated sea-surface temperature (SST) is empirically corrected and used as lower boundary conditions over the ocean for an atmosphere-only global simulation (AGCM), which in turn provides the atmospheric lateral boundary conditions to drive the CRCM5 simulation. This approach, so-called 3-step approach of dynamical downscaling (CGCM-AGCM-RCM), which had considerably improved the CRCM5 historical simulations over Africa, exhibits reduced impact over the Arctic domain. The most notable positive effect over the Arctic is a reduction of the T2m bias over the North Pacific Ocean and the North Atlantic Ocean in all seasons. Future projections using this method are compared with the results obtained with the traditional 2-step dynamical downscaling (CGCM-RCM) to assess the impact of correcting systematic biases of SST upon future-climate projections. The future projections are mostly similar for the two methods, except for precipitation.

Large-Scale Cooperative Dissemination of Governmental Information in Emergency — An Experiment and Future Strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horiba, Katsuhiro; Okawa, Keiko; Murai, Jun

On the 11th of March, 2011, a massive earthquake hit the northeast region of Japan. The government of Japan needed to publish information regarding the earthquake and its influences. However, their capacity of Web services overflowed. They called the industry and academia for help for providing stable information service to the people. Industry and academia formed a team to answer the call and named themselves the “EQ project”. This paper describes how the EQ Project was organized and operated, and gives analyses of the statistics. An academic organization took the lead in the EQ Project. Ten organizations which consisted of commercial IT industry and academics specialized in Internet technology, were participating in the EQ Project and they structured the three clusters based on their relationships and technological approach. In WIDE Cluster, one of three clusters in the structure of EQ, the peak number of file accesses per day was over 90 thousand, the mobile browsers was 3.4% and foreign languages (translated contents) were referred 35%. We have also discussed the future information distribution strategies in emergency situation based on the experiences of the EQ Project, and proposed nine suggestions to the MEXT as a future strategy.

Contribution of the infrasound technology to characterize large scale atmospheric disturbances and impact on infrasound monitoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blanc, Elisabeth; Le Pichon, Alexis; Ceranna, Lars; Pilger, Christoph; Charlton Perez, Andrew; Smets, Pieter

2016-04-01

The International Monitoring System (IMS) developed for the verification of the Comprehensive nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) provides a unique global description of atmospheric disturbances generating infrasound such as extreme events (e.g. meteors, volcanoes, earthquakes, and severe weather) or human activity (e.g. explosions and supersonic airplanes). The analysis of the detected signals, recorded at global scales and over near 15 years at some stations, demonstrates that large-scale atmospheric disturbances strongly affect infrasound propagation. Their time scales vary from several tens of minutes to hours and days. Their effects are in average well resolved by the current model predictions; however, accurate spatial and temporal description is lacking in both weather and climate models. This study reviews recent results using the infrasound technology to characterize these large scale disturbances, including (i) wind fluctuations induced by gravity waves generating infrasound partial reflections and modifications of the infrasound waveguide, (ii) convection from thunderstorms and mountain waves generating gravity waves, (iii) stratospheric warming events which yield wind inversions in the stratosphere, (iv)planetary waves which control the global atmospheric circulation. Improved knowledge of these disturbances and assimilation in future models is an important objective of the ARISE (Atmospheric dynamics Research InfraStructure in Europe) project. This is essential in the context of the future verification of the CTBT as enhanced atmospheric models are necessary to assess the IMS network performance in higher resolution, reduce source location errors, and improve characterization methods.

Locally-Adaptive, Spatially-Explicit Projection of U.S. Population for 2030 and 2050

DOE PAGES

McKee, Jacob J.; Rose, Amy N.; Bright, Eddie A.; ...

2015-02-03

Localized adverse events, including natural hazards, epidemiological events, and human conflict, underscore the criticality of quantifying and mapping current population. Moreover, knowing the spatial distribution of future population allows for increased preparation in the event of an emergency. Building on the spatial interpolation technique previously developed for high resolution population distribution data (LandScan Global and LandScan USA), we have constructed an empirically-informed spatial distribution of the projected population of the contiguous U.S. for 2030 and 2050. Whereas most current large-scale, spatially explicit population projections typically rely on a population gravity model to determine areas of future growth, our projection modelmore » departs from these by accounting for multiple components that affect population distribution. Modelled variables, which included land cover, slope, distances to larger cities, and a moving average of current population, were locally adaptive and geographically varying. The resulting weighted surface was used to determine which areas had the greatest likelihood for future population change. Population projections of county level numbers were developed using a modified version of the U.S. Census s projection methodology with the U.S. Census s official projection as the benchmark. Applications of our model include, but are not limited to, suitability modelling, service area planning for governmental agencies, consequence assessment, mitigation planning and implementation, and assessment of spatially vulnerable populations.« less

Locally-Adaptive, Spatially-Explicit Projection of U.S. Population for 2030 and 2050

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

McKee, Jacob J.; Rose, Amy N.; Bright, Eddie A.

Localized adverse events, including natural hazards, epidemiological events, and human conflict, underscore the criticality of quantifying and mapping current population. Moreover, knowing the spatial distribution of future population allows for increased preparation in the event of an emergency. Building on the spatial interpolation technique previously developed for high resolution population distribution data (LandScan Global and LandScan USA), we have constructed an empirically-informed spatial distribution of the projected population of the contiguous U.S. for 2030 and 2050. Whereas most current large-scale, spatially explicit population projections typically rely on a population gravity model to determine areas of future growth, our projection modelmore » departs from these by accounting for multiple components that affect population distribution. Modelled variables, which included land cover, slope, distances to larger cities, and a moving average of current population, were locally adaptive and geographically varying. The resulting weighted surface was used to determine which areas had the greatest likelihood for future population change. Population projections of county level numbers were developed using a modified version of the U.S. Census s projection methodology with the U.S. Census s official projection as the benchmark. Applications of our model include, but are not limited to, suitability modelling, service area planning for governmental agencies, consequence assessment, mitigation planning and implementation, and assessment of spatially vulnerable populations.« less

Power monitoring and control for large scale projects: SKA, a case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barbosa, Domingos; Barraca, João. Paulo; Maia, Dalmiro; Carvalho, Bruno; Vieira, Jorge; Swart, Paul; Le Roux, Gerhard; Natarajan, Swaminathan; van Ardenne, Arnold; Seca, Luis

2016-07-01

Large sensor-based science infrastructures for radio astronomy like the SKA will be among the most intensive datadriven projects in the world, facing very high demanding computation, storage, management, and above all power demands. The geographically wide distribution of the SKA and its associated processing requirements in the form of tailored High Performance Computing (HPC) facilities, require a Greener approach towards the Information and Communications Technologies (ICT) adopted for the data processing to enable operational compliance to potentially strict power budgets. Addressing the reduction of electricity costs, improve system power monitoring and the generation and management of electricity at system level is paramount to avoid future inefficiencies and higher costs and enable fulfillments of Key Science Cases. Here we outline major characteristics and innovation approaches to address power efficiency and long-term power sustainability for radio astronomy projects, focusing on Green ICT for science and Smart power monitoring and control.

Effects of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and global warming on drought in the US Southwest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grossmann, I.

2012-12-01

Droughts are among the most expensive weather related disasters in the US. In the semi-arid regions of the US Southwest, where average annual rainfall is already very low, multiyear droughts can have large economic, societal and ecological impacts. The US Southwest relies on annual precipitation maxima during winter and the North American Monsoon (NAM), both of which undergo considerable interannual variability associated with large-scale climate patterns, in particular ENSO, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The region is also part of the subtropical belt projected to become more arid in a warming climate. These impacts have not been combined and compared with projections of long-term variations due to natural climate patterns. This study addresses this need by deriving future projections of rainfall departures for Arizona and New Mexico with the PDO and AMO and combining these with projected global warming impacts. Depending on the precipitation dataset used, the impacts for the ongoing negative PDO phase are projected to be between 1-1.6 times as large as the multi-model means projection of precipitation minus evaporation during 2020-2040 in the IPCC A1B Scenario. The projected precipitation impacts of a combined negative PDO and positive AMO phase are between 1-2 times as large as the A1B Scenario projection. The study also advances earlier work by addressing problems in detecting the effect of the PDO on precipitation. Given the different mechanisms with which the PDO affects precipitation during winter and the NAM season, precipitation impacts are here investigated on a monthly scale. The impacts of the PDO also vary with other climate patterns. This can be partly addressed by investigating precipitation departures in dependence on other patterns. It is further found that the long-term effect of the PDO can be more clearly separated from short-term variability by considering return periods of multi-year drought measures rather than return periods of simple drought measures.

Natural and drought scenarios in an east central Amazon forest: Fidelity of the Community Land Model 3.5 with three biogeochemical models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sakaguchi, Koichi; Zeng, Xubin; Christoffersen, Bradley J.; Restrepo-Coupe, Natalia; Saleska, Scott R.; Brando, Paulo M.

2011-03-01

Recent development of general circulation models involves biogeochemical cycles: flows of carbon and other chemical species that circulate through the Earth system. Such models are valuable tools for future projections of climate, but still bear large uncertainties in the model simulations. One of the regions with especially high uncertainty is the Amazon forest where large-scale dieback associated with the changing climate is predicted by several models. In order to better understand the capability and weakness of global-scale land-biogeochemical models in simulating a tropical ecosystem under the present day as well as significantly drier climates, we analyzed the off-line simulations for an east central Amazon forest by the Community Land Model version 3.5 of the National Center for Atmospheric Research and its three independent biogeochemical submodels (CASA', CN, and DGVM). Intense field measurements carried out under Large Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia, including forest response to drought from a throughfall exclusion experiment, are utilized to evaluate the whole spectrum of biogeophysical and biogeochemical aspects of the models. Our analysis shows reasonable correspondence in momentum and energy turbulent fluxes, but it highlights three processes that are not in agreement with observations: (1) inconsistent seasonality in carbon fluxes, (2) biased biomass size and allocation, and (3) overestimation of vegetation stress to short-term drought but underestimation of biomass loss from long-term drought. Without resolving these issues the modeled feedbacks from the biosphere in future climate projections would be questionable. We suggest possible directions for model improvements and also emphasize the necessity of more studies using a variety of in situ data for both driving and evaluating land-biogeochemical models.

Regional assessment of the hydropower potential of rivers in West Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kling, Harald; Stanzel, Philipp; Fuchs, Martin

2016-04-01

The 15 countries of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) face a constant shortage of energy supply, which limits sustained economic growth. Currently there are about 50 operational hydropower plants and about 40 more are under construction or refurbishment. The potential for future hydropower development - especially for small-scale plants in rural areas - is assumed to be large, but exact data are missing. This study supports the energy initiatives of the "ECOWAS Centre for Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency" (ECREEE) by assessing the hydropower potential of all rivers in West Africa. For more than 500,000 river reaches the hydropower potential was computed from channel slope and mean annual discharge. In large areas there is a lack of discharge observations. Therefore, an annual water balance model was used to simulate discharge. The model domain covers 5 Mio km², including e.g. the Niger, Volta, and Senegal River basins. The model was calibrated with observed data of 410 gauges, using precipitation and potential evapotranspiration data as inputs. Historic variations of observed annual discharge between 1950 and 2010 are simulated well by the model. As hydropower plants are investments with a lifetime of several decades we also assessed possible changes in future discharge due to climate change. To this end the water balance model was driven with bias-corrected climate projections of 15 Regional Climate Models for two emission scenarios of the CORDEX-Africa ensemble. The simulation results for the river network were up-scaled to sub-areas and national summaries. This information gives a regional quantification of the hydropower potential, expected climate change impacts, as well as a regional classification for general suitability (or non-suitability) of hydropower plant size - from small-scale to large projects.

The Future of Stellar Populations Studies in the Milky Way and the Local Group

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Majewski, Steven R.

2010-04-01

The last decade has seen enormous progress in understanding the structure of the Milky Way and neighboring galaxies via the production of large-scale digital surveys of the sky like 2MASS and SDSS, as well as specialized, counterpart imaging surveys of other Local Group systems. Apart from providing snaphots of galaxy structure, these “cartographic” surveys lend insights into the formation and evolution of galaxies when supplemented with additional data (e.g., spectroscopy, astrometry) and when referenced to theoretical models and simulations of galaxy evolution. These increasingly sophisticated simulations are making ever more specific predictions about the detailed chemistry and dynamics of stellar populations in galaxies. To fully exploit, test and constrain these theoretical ventures demands similar commitments of observational effort as has been plied into the previous imaging surveys to fill out other dimensions of parameter space with statistically significant intensity. Fortunately the future of large-scale stellar population studies is bright with a number of grand projects on the horizon that collectively will contribute a breathtaking volume of information on individual stars in Local Group galaxies. These projects include: (1) additional imaging surveys, such as Pan-STARRS, SkyMapper and LSST, which, apart from providing deep, multicolor imaging, yield time series data useful for revealing variable stars (including critical standard candles, like RR Lyrae variables) and creating large-scale, deep proper motion catalogs; (2) higher accuracy, space-based astrometric missions, such as Gaia and SIM-Lite, which stand to provide critical, high precision dynamical data on stars in the Milky Way and its satellites; and (3) large-scale spectroscopic surveys provided by RAVE, APOGEE, HERMES, LAMOST, and the Gaia spectrometer, which will yield not only enormous numbers of stellar radial velocities, but extremely comprehensive views of the chemistry of stellar populations. Meanwhile, previously dust-obscured regions of the Milky Way will continue to be systematically exposed via large infrared surveys underway or on the way, such as the various GLIMPSE surveys from Spitzer's IRAC instrument, UKIDSS, APOGEE, JASMINE and WISE.

Importance of Anthropogenic Aerosols for Climate Prediction: a Study on East Asian Sulfate Aerosols

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bartlett, R. E.; Bollasina, M. A.

2017-12-01

Climate prediction is vital to ensure that we are able to adapt to our changing climate. Understandably, the main focus for such prediction is greenhouse gas forcing, as this will be the main anthropogenic driver of long-term global climate change; however, other forcings could still be important. Atmospheric aerosols represent one such forcing, especially in regions with high present-day aerosol loading such as Asia; yet, uncertainty in their future emissions are under-sampled by commonly used climate forcing projections, such as the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Globally, anthropogenic aerosols exert a net cooling, but their effects show large variation at regional scales. Studies have shown that aerosols impact locally upon temperature, precipitation and hydroclimate, and also upon larger scale atmospheric circulation (for example, the Asian monsoon) with implications for climate remote from aerosol sources. We investigate how future climate could evolve differently given the same greenhouse gas forcing pathway but differing aerosol emissions. Specifically, we use climate modelling experiments (using HadGEM2-ES) of two scenarios based upon RCP2.6 greenhouse gas forcing but with large differences in sulfur dioxide emissions over East Asia. Results show that increased sulfate aerosols (associated with increased sulfur dioxide) lead to large regional cooling through aerosol-radiation and aerosol-cloud interactions. Focussing on dynamical mechanisms, we explore the consequences of this cooling for the Asian summer and winter monsoons. In addition to local temperature and precipitation changes, we find significant changes to large scale atmospheric circulation. Wave-like responses to upper-level atmospheric changes propagate across the northern hemisphere with far-reaching effects on surface climate, for example, cooling over Europe. Within the tropics, we find alterations to zonal circulation (notably, shifts in the Pacific Walker cell) and monsoon systems outside of Asia. These results indicate that anthropogenic aerosols have significant climate impacts against a background of greenhouse gas-induced climate change, and thus represent a key source of uncertainty in near-term climate projection that should be seriously considered in future climate assessments.

An analysis of European riverine flood risk and adaptation measures under projected climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bouwer, Laurens; Burzel, Andreas; Holz, Friederike; Winsemius, Hessel; de Bruijn, Karind

2015-04-01

There is increasing need to assess costs and benefits of adaptation at scales beyond the river basin. In Europe, such estimates are required at the European scale in order to set priorities for action and financing, for instance in the context of the EU Adaptation Strategy. The goal of this work as part of the FP7 BASE project is to develop a flood impact model that can be applied at Pan-European scale and that is able to project changes in flood risk due to climate change and socio-economic developments, and costs of adaptation. For this research, we build upon the global flood hazard estimation method developed by Winsemius et al. (Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 2013), that produces flood inundation maps at different return period, for present day (EU WATCH) and future climate (IPCC scenarios RCP4.5 and 8.5, for five climate models). These maps are used for the assessment of flood impacts. We developed and tested a model for assessing direct economic flood damages by using large scale land use maps. We characterise vulnerable land use functions, in particular residential, commercial, industrial, infrastructure and agriculture, using depth-damage relationships. Furthermore, we apply up to NUTS3 level information on Gross Domestic Product, which is used as a proxy for relative differences in maximum damage values between different areas. Next, we test two adaptation measures, by adjusting flood protection levels and adjusting damage functions. The results show the projected changes in flood risk in the future. For example, on NUTS2 level, flood risk increases in some regions up to 179% (between the baseline scenario 1960-1999 and time slice 2010-2049). On country level there are increases up to 60% for selected climate models. The conference presentation will show the most relevant improvements in damage modelling on the continental scale, and results of the analysis of adaptation measures. The results will be critically discussed under the aspect of major uncertainties in both future flood hazards as well as damage costs and adaptation effects and costs.

Photovoltaic Subcontract Program. Annual report, FY 1992

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1993-03-01

This report summarizes the fiscal year (FY) 1992 progress of the subcontracted photovoltaic (PV) research and development (R&D) performed under the Photovoltaic Advanced Research and Development Project at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL)-formerly the Solar Energy Research Institute (SERI). The mission of the national PV program is to develop PV technology for large-scale generation of economically competitive electric power in the United States. The technical sections of the report cover the main areas of the subcontract program: the Crystalline Materials and Advanced Concepts project, the Polycrystalline Thin Films project, Amorphous Silicon Research project, the Photovoltaic Manufacturing Technology (PVMaT) project,more » PV Module and System Performance and Engineering project, and the PV Analysis and Applications Development project. Technical summaries of each of the subcontracted programs provide a discussion of approaches, major accomplishments in FY 1992, and future research directions.« less

Investigation of multilayer domains in large-scale CVD monolayer graphene by optical imaging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Yuanfang; Li, Zhenzhen; Wang, Wenhui; Guo, Xitao; Jiang, Jie; Nan, Haiyan; Ni, Zhenhua

2017-03-01

CVD graphene is a promising candidate for optoelectronic applications due to its high quality and high yield. However, multi-layer domains could inevitably form at the nucleation centers during the growth. Here, we propose an optical imaging technique to precisely identify the multilayer domains and also the ratio of their coverage in large-scale CVD monolayer graphene. We have also shown that the stacking disorder in twisted bilayer graphene as well as the impurities on the graphene surface could be distinguished by optical imaging. Finally, we investigated the effects of bilayer domains on the optical and electrical properties of CVD graphene, and found that the carrier mobility of CVD graphene is seriously limited by scattering from bilayer domains. Our results could be useful for guiding future optoelectronic applications of large-scale CVD graphene. Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Nos. 61422503, 61376104), the Open Research Funds of Key Laboratory of MEMS of Ministry of Education (SEU, China), and the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities.

The asymmetric impact of global warming on US drought types and distributions in a large ensemble of 97 hydro-climatic simulations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Huang, Shengzhi; Leng, Guoyong; Huang, Qiang

Projection of future drought is often involved large uncertainties from climate models, emission scenarios as well as drought definitions. In this study, we investigate changes in future droughts in the conterminous United States based on 97 1/8 degree hydro-climate model projections. Instead of focusing on a specific drought type, we investigate changes in meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological drought as well as the concurrences. Agricultural and hydrological droughts are projected to become more frequent with increase in global mean temperature, while less meteorological drought is expected. Changes in drought intensity scale linearly with global temperature rises under RCP8.5 scenario, indicating themore » potential feasibility to derive future drought severity given certain global warming amount under this scenario. Changing pattern of concurrent droughts generally follows that of agricultural and hydrological droughts. Under the 1.5 °C warming target as advocated in recent Paris agreement, several hot spot regions experiencing highest droughts are identified. Extreme droughts show similar patterns but with much larger magnitude than the climatology. In conclusion, this study highlights the distinct response of droughts of various types to global warming and the asymmetric impact of global warming on drought distribution resulting in a much stronger influence on extreme drought than on mean drought.« less

The asymmetric impact of global warming on US drought types and distributions in a large ensemble of 97 hydro-climatic simulations

DOE PAGES

Huang, Shengzhi; Leng, Guoyong; Huang, Qiang; ...

2017-07-19

Projection of future drought is often involved large uncertainties from climate models, emission scenarios as well as drought definitions. In this study, we investigate changes in future droughts in the conterminous United States based on 97 1/8 degree hydro-climate model projections. Instead of focusing on a specific drought type, we investigate changes in meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological drought as well as the concurrences. Agricultural and hydrological droughts are projected to become more frequent with increase in global mean temperature, while less meteorological drought is expected. Changes in drought intensity scale linearly with global temperature rises under RCP8.5 scenario, indicating themore » potential feasibility to derive future drought severity given certain global warming amount under this scenario. Changing pattern of concurrent droughts generally follows that of agricultural and hydrological droughts. Under the 1.5 °C warming target as advocated in recent Paris agreement, several hot spot regions experiencing highest droughts are identified. Extreme droughts show similar patterns but with much larger magnitude than the climatology. In conclusion, this study highlights the distinct response of droughts of various types to global warming and the asymmetric impact of global warming on drought distribution resulting in a much stronger influence on extreme drought than on mean drought.« less

Developing Renewable Energy Projects Larger Than 10 MWs at Federal Facilities

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

None

2013-03-01

To accomplish Federal goals for renewable energy, sustainability, and energy security, large-scale renewable energy projects must be developed and constructed on Federal sites at a significant scale with significant private investment. For the purposes of this Guide, large-scale Federal renewable energy projects are defined as renewable energy facilities larger than 10 megawatts (MW) that are sited on Federal property and lands and typically financed and owned by third parties.1 The U.S. Department of Energy’s Federal Energy Management Program (FEMP) helps Federal agencies meet these goals and assists agency personnel navigate the complexities of developing such projects and attract the necessarymore » private capital to complete them. This Guide is intended to provide a general resource that will begin to develop the Federal employee’s awareness and understanding of the project developer’s operating environment and the private sector’s awareness and understanding of the Federal environment. Because the vast majority of the investment that is required to meet the goals for large-scale renewable energy projects will come from the private sector, this Guide has been organized to match Federal processes with typical phases of commercial project development. FEMP collaborated with the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and professional project developers on this Guide to ensure that Federal projects have key elements recognizable to private sector developers and investors. The main purpose of this Guide is to provide a project development framework to allow the Federal Government, private developers, and investors to work in a coordinated fashion on large-scale renewable energy projects. The framework includes key elements that describe a successful, financially attractive large-scale renewable energy project. This framework begins the translation between the Federal and private sector operating environments. When viewing the overall« less

Projected changes in precipitation intensity and frequency over complex topography: a multi-model perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fischer, Andreas; Keller, Denise; Liniger, Mark; Rajczak, Jan; Schär, Christoph; Appenzeller, Christof

2014-05-01

Fundamental changes in the hydrological cycle are expected in a future warmer climate. This is of particular relevance for the Alpine region, as a source and reservoir of several major rivers in Europe and being prone to extreme events such as floodings. For this region, climate change assessments based on the ENSEMBLES regional climate models (RCMs) project a significant decrease in summer mean precipitation under the A1B emission scenario by the mid-to-end of this century, while winter mean precipitation is expected to slightly rise. From an impact perspective, projected changes in seasonal means, however, are often insufficient to adequately address the multifaceted challenges of climate change adaptation. In this study, we revisit the full matrix of the ENSEMBLES RCM projections regarding changes in frequency and intensity, precipitation-type (convective versus stratiform) and temporal structure (wet/dry spells and transition probabilities) over Switzerland and surroundings. As proxies for raintype changes, we rely on the model parameterized convective and large-scale precipitation components. Part of the analysis involves a Bayesian multi-model combination algorithm to infer changes from the multi-model ensemble. The analysis suggests a summer drying that evolves altitude-specific: over low-land regions it is associated with wet-day frequency decreases of convective and large-scale precipitation, while over elevated regions it is primarily associated with a decline in large-scale precipitation only. As a consequence, almost all the models project an increase in the convective fraction at elevated Alpine altitudes. The decrease in the number of wet days during summer is accompanied by decreases (increases) in multi-day wet (dry) spells. This shift in multi-day episodes also lowers the likelihood of short dry spell occurrence in all of the models. For spring and autumn the combined multi-model projections indicate higher mean precipitation intensity north of the Alps, while a similar tendency is expected for the winter season over most of Switzerland.

What Are Student Inservice Teachers Talking about in Their Online Communities of Practice? Investigating Student Inservice Teachers' Experiences in a Double-Layered CoP

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lee, Kyungmee; Brett, Clare

2013-01-01

This qualitative case study is the first phase of a large-scale design-based research project to implement a theoretically derived double-layered CoP model within real-world teacher development practices. The main goal of this first iteration is to evaluate the courses and test and refine the CoP model for future implementations. This paper…

Hope for the Forests? Habitat Resiliency Illustrated in the Face of Climate Change Using Fine-Scale Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flint, L. E.; Flint, A. L.; Weiss, S. B.; Micheli, E. R.

2010-12-01

In the face of rapid climate change, fine-scale predictions of landscape change are of extreme interest to land managers that endeavor to develop long term adaptive strategies for maintaining biodiversity and ecosystem services. Global climate model (GCM) outputs, which generally focus on estimated increases in air temperature, are increasingly applied to species habitat distribution models. For sensitive species subject to climate change, habitat models predict significant migration (either northward or towards higher elevations), or complete extinction. Current studies typically rely on large spatial scale GCM projections (> 10 km) of changes in precipitation and air temperature: at this scale, these models necessarily neglect subtleties of topographic shading, geomorphic expression of the landscape, and fine-scale differences in soil properties - data that is readily available at meaningful local scales. Recent advances in modeling take advantage of available soils, geology, and topographic data to construct watershed-scale scenarios using GCM inputs and result in improved correlations of vegetation distribution with temperature. For this study, future climate projections were downscaled to 270-m and applied to a physically-based hydrologic model to calculate future changes in recharge, runoff, and climatic water deficit (CWD) for basins draining into the northern San Francisco Bay. CWD was analyzed for mapped vegetation types to evaluate the range of CWD for historic time periods in comparison to future time periods. For several forest communities (including blue oak woodlands, montane hardwoods, douglas-fir, and coast redwood) existing landscape area exhibiting suitable CWD diminishes by up 80 percent in the next century, with a trend towards increased CWD throughout the region. However, no forest community loses all suitable habitat, with islands of potential habitat primarily remaining on north facing slopes and deeper soils. Creation of new suitable habitat is also predicted throughout the region. Results have direct application to management issues of habitat connectivity, forest land protection and acquisition, and active management solutions such as transplanting or assisted migration. Although this analysis considers only one driver of forest habitat distribution, consideration of hydrologic derivatives at a fine scale explains current forest community distributions and provides a far more informed perspective on potential future forest distributions. Results demonstrate the utility of fine-scale modeling and provide landscape managers and conservation agencies valuable management tools in fine-scale future forest scenarios and a framework for evaluating forest resiliency in a changing climate.

Projected changes to precipitation extremes over the Canadian Prairies using multi-RCM ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masud, M. B.; Khaliq, M. N.; Wheater, H. S.

2016-12-01

Information on projected changes to precipitation extremes is needed for future planning of urban drainage infrastructure and storm water management systems and to sustain socio-economic activities and ecosystems at local, regional and other scales of interest. This study explores the projected changes to seasonal (April-October) precipitation extremes at daily, hourly and sub-hourly scales over the Canadian Prairie Provinces of Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba, based on the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program multi-Regional Climate Model (RCM) ensemble and regional frequency analysis. The performance of each RCM is evaluated regarding boundary and performance errors to study various sources of uncertainties and the impact of large-scale driving fields. In the absence of RCM-simulated short-duration extremes, a framework is developed to derive changes to extremes of these durations. Results from this research reveal that the relative changes in sub-hourly extremes are higher than those in the hourly and daily extremes. Overall, projected changes in precipitation extremes are larger for southeastern parts of this region than southern and northern areas, and smaller for southwestern and western parts of the study area. Keywords: climate change, precipitation extremes, regional frequency analysis, NARCCAP, Canadian Prairie provinces

Final Technical Report for DE-SC0005467

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Broccoli, Anthony J.

2014-09-14

The objective of this project is to gain a comprehensive understanding of the key atmospheric mechanisms and physical processes associated with temperature extremes in order to better interpret and constrain uncertainty in climate model simulations of future extreme temperatures. To achieve this objective, we first used climate observations and a reanalysis product to identify the key atmospheric circulation patterns associated with extreme temperature days over North America during the late twentieth century. We found that temperature extremes were associated with distinctive signatures in near-surface and mid-tropospheric circulation. The orientations and spatial scales of these circulation anomalies vary with latitude, season,more » and proximity to important geographic features such as mountains and coastlines. We next examined the associations between daily and monthly temperature extremes and large-scale, recurrent modes of climate variability, including the Pacific-North American (PNA) pattern, the northern annular mode (NAM), and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The strength of the associations are strongest with the PNA and NAM and weaker for ENSO, and also depend upon season, time scale, and location. The associations are stronger in winter than summer, stronger for monthly than daily extremes, and stronger in the vicinity of the centers of action of the PNA and NAM patterns. In the final stage of this project, we compared climate model simulations of the circulation patterns associated with extreme temperature days over North America with those obtained from observations. Using a variety of metrics and self-organizing maps, we found the multi-model ensemble and the majority of individual models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) generally capture the observed patterns well, including their strength and as well as variations with latitude and season. The results from this project indicate that current models are capable of simulating the large-scale meteorological patterns associated with daily temperature extremes and they suggest that such models can be used to evaluate the extent to which changes in atmospheric circulation will influence future changes in temperature extremes.« less

Statistical wave climate projections for coastal impact assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Camus, P.; Losada, I. J.; Izaguirre, C.; Espejo, A.; Menéndez, M.; Pérez, J.

2017-09-01

Global multimodel wave climate projections are obtained at 1.0° × 1.0° scale from 30 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) global circulation model (GCM) realizations. A semi-supervised weather-typing approach based on a characterization of the ocean wave generation areas and the historical wave information from the recent GOW2 database are used to train the statistical model. This framework is also applied to obtain high resolution projections of coastal wave climate and coastal impacts as port operability and coastal flooding. Regional projections are estimated using the collection of weather types at spacing of 1.0°. This assumption is feasible because the predictor is defined based on the wave generation area and the classification is guided by the local wave climate. The assessment of future changes in coastal impacts is based on direct downscaling of indicators defined by empirical formulations (total water level for coastal flooding and number of hours per year with overtopping for port operability). Global multimodel projections of the significant wave height and peak period are consistent with changes obtained in previous studies. Statistical confidence of expected changes is obtained due to the large number of GCMs to construct the ensemble. The proposed methodology is proved to be flexible to project wave climate at different spatial scales. Regional changes of additional variables as wave direction or other statistics can be estimated from the future empirical distribution with extreme values restricted to high percentiles (i.e., 95th, 99th percentiles). The statistical framework can also be applied to evaluate regional coastal impacts integrating changes in storminess and sea level rise.

Quantifying the influence of CO2 seasonality on future aragonite undersaturation onset

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sasse, T. P.; McNeil, B. I.; Matear, R. J.; Lenton, A.

2015-10-01

Ocean acidification is a predictable consequence of rising atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), and is highly likely to impact the entire marine ecosystem - from plankton at the base of the food chain to fish at the top. Factors which are expected to be impacted include reproductive health, organism growth and species composition and distribution. Predicting when critical threshold values will be reached is crucial for projecting the future health of marine ecosystems and for marine resources planning and management. The impacts of ocean acidification will be first felt at the seasonal scale, however our understanding how seasonal variability will influence rates of future ocean acidification remains poorly constrained due to current model and data limitations. To address this issue, we first quantified the seasonal cycle of aragonite saturation state utilizing new data-based estimates of global ocean-surface dissolved inorganic carbon and alkalinity. This seasonality was then combined with earth system model projections under different emissions scenarios (representative concentration pathways; RCPs 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5) to provide new insights into future aragonite undersaturation onset. Under a high emissions scenario (RCP 8.5), our results suggest accounting for seasonality will bring forward the initial onset of month-long undersaturation by 17 ± 10 years compared to annual-mean estimates, with differences extending up to 35 ± 16 years in the North Pacific due to strong regional seasonality. This earlier onset will result in large-scale undersaturation once atmospheric CO2 reaches 496 ppm in the North Pacific and 511 ppm in the Southern Ocean, independent of emission scenario. This work suggests accounting for seasonality is critical to projecting the future impacts of ocean acidification on the marine environment.

Scenarios of Earth system change in western Canada: Conceptual understanding and process insights from the Changing Cold Regions Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DeBeer, C. M.; Wheater, H. S.; Pomeroy, J. W.; Stewart, R. E.; Turetsky, M. R.; Baltzer, J. L.; Pietroniro, A.; Marsh, P.; Carey, S.; Howard, A.; Barr, A.; Elshamy, M.

2017-12-01

The interior of western Canada has been experiencing rapid, widespread, and severe hydroclimatic change in recent decades, and this is projected to continue in the future. To better assess future hydrological, cryospheric and ecological states and fluxes under future climates, a regional hydroclimate project was formed under the auspices of the Global Energy and Water Exchanges (GEWEX) project of the World Climate Research Programme; the Changing Cold Regions Network (CCRN; www.ccrnetwork.ca) aims to understand, diagnose, and predict interactions among the changing Earth system components at multiple spatial scales over the Mackenzie and Saskatchewan River basins of western Canada. A particular challenge is in applying land surface and hydrological models under future climates, as system changes and cold regions process interactions are not often straightforward, and model structures and parameterizations based on historical observations and understanding of contemporary system functioning may not adequately capture these complexities. To address this and provide guidance and direction to the modelling community, CCRN has drawn insights from a multi-disciplinary perspective on the process controls and system trajectories to develop a set of feasible scenarios of change for the 21st century across the region. This presentation will describe CCRN's efforts towards formalizing these insights and applying them in a large-scale modelling context. This will address what are seen as the most critical processes and key drivers affecting hydrological, cryospheric and ecological change, how these will most likely evolve in the coming decades, and how these are parameterized and incorporated as future scenarios for terrestrial ecology, hydrological functioning, permafrost state, glaciers, agriculture, and water management.

Enhanced recharge rates and altered recharge sensitivity to climate variability through subsurface heterogeneity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hartmann, Andreas; Gleeson, Tom; Wada, Yoshihide; Wagener, Thorsten

2017-04-01

Karst aquifers in Europe are an important source of fresh water contributing up to half of the total drinking water supply in some countries. Karstic groundwater recharge is one of the most important components of the water balance of karst systems as it feeds the karst aquifers. Presently available large-scale hydrological models do not consider karst heterogeneity adequately. Projections of current and potential future groundwater recharge of Europe's karst aquifers are therefore unclear. In this study we compare simulations of present (1991-2010) and future (2080-2099) recharge using two different models to simulate groundwater recharge processes. One model includes karst processes (subsurface heterogeneity, lateral flow and concentrated recharge), while the other is based on the conceptual understanding of common hydrological systems (homogeneous subsurface, saturation excess overland flow). Both models are driven by the bias-corrected 5 GCMs of the ISI-MIP project (RCP8.5). To further assess sensitivity of groundwater recharge to climate variability, we calculate the elasticity of recharge rates to annual precipitation, temperature and average intensity of rainfall events, which is the median change of recharge that corresponds to the median change of these climate variables within the present and future time period, respectively. Our model comparison shows that karst regions over Europe have enhanced recharge rates with greater inter-annual variability compared to those with more homogenous subsurface properties. Furthermore, the heterogeneous representation shows stronger elasticity concerning climate variability than the homogeneous subsurface representation. This difference tends to increase towards the future. Our results suggest that water management in regions with heterogeneous subsurface can expect a higher water availability than estimated by most of the current large-scale simulations, while measures should be taken to prepare for increasingly variable groundwater recharge rates.

Performance of the first Japanese large-scale facility for radon inhalation experiments with small animals.

PubMed

Ishimori, Yuu; Mitsunobu, Fumihiro; Yamaoka, Kiyonori; Tanaka, Hiroshi; Kataoka, Takahiro; Sakoda, Akihiro

2011-07-01

A radon test facility for small animals was developed in order to increase the statistical validity of differences of the biological response in various radon environments. This paper illustrates the performances of that facility, the first large-scale facility of its kind in Japan. The facility has a capability to conduct approximately 150 mouse-scale tests at the same time. The apparatus for exposing small animals to radon has six animal chamber groups with five independent cages each. Different radon concentrations in each animal chamber group are available. Because the first target of this study is to examine the in vivo behaviour of radon and its effects, the major functions to control radon and to eliminate thoron were examined experimentally. Additionally, radon progeny concentrations and their particle size distributions in the cages were also examined experimentally to be considered in future projects.

What Will the Neighbors Think? Building Large-Scale Science Projects Around the World

ScienceCinema

Jones, Craig; Mrotzek, Christian; Toge, Nobu; Sarno, Doug

2017-12-22

Public participation is an essential ingredient for turning the International Linear Collider into a reality. Wherever the proposed particle accelerator is sited in the world, its neighbors -- in any country -- will have something to say about hosting a 35-kilometer-long collider in their backyards. When it comes to building large-scale physics projects, almost every laboratory has a story to tell. Three case studies from Japan, Germany and the US will be presented to examine how community relations are handled in different parts of the world. How do particle physics laboratories interact with their local communities? How do neighbors react to building large-scale projects in each region? How can the lessons learned from past experiences help in building the next big project? These and other questions will be discussed to engage the audience in an active dialogue about how a large-scale project like the ILC can be a good neighbor.

Environmental Impact of Megacities - Results from CityZen

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gauss, M.

2012-04-01

Megacities have increasingly important impacts on air quality and climate change on different spatial scales, owing to their high population densities and concentrated emission sources. The EU FP7 project CityZen (Megacity - Zoom for the Environment) ended in 2011 and was, together with its sister project MEGAPOLI, part of a major research effort within FP7 on megacities in Europe and worldwide. The project mainly focused on air pollution trends in large cities and emission hotspots, climate-chemistry couplings, future projections, and emission mitigation options. Both observational and modeling tools have been extensively used. This paper reviews some of the main results from CityZen regarding present air pollution in and around megacities, future scenarios and mitigation options to reduce air pollution and/or climate change, and the main policy messages from the project. The different observed trends over European and Asian hotspots during the last 10 to 15 years are shown. Results of source attribution of pollutants, which have been measured and calculated in and around the different selected hot spots in CityZen will be discussed. Another important question to be addressed is the extent to which climate change will affect air quality and the effectiveness of air quality legislation. Although projected emission reductions are a major determinate influencing the predictions of future air pollution, model results suggest that climate change has to be taken into account when devising future air quality legislation. This paper will also summarize some important policy messages in terms of ozone, particles and the observational needs that have been put forward as conclusions from the project.

Projections of meteorological and snow conditions in the Pyrenees using adjusted EURO-CORDEX climate projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verfaillie, Deborah; Déqué, Michel; Morin, Samuel; Soubeyroux, Jean-Michel; Lafaysse, Matthieu

2017-04-01

Current and future availability of seasonal snow is a recurring topic in mountain regions such as the Pyrenees, where winter tourism and hydropower production are large contributors to the regional revenues in France, Spain and Andorra. Associated changes in river discharges, their consequences on water storage management, the future vulnerability of Pyrenean ecosystems as well as the occurrence of climate-related hazards such as debris flows and avalanches are also under consideration. However, to generate projections of snow conditions, a traditional dynamical downscaling approach featuring spatial resolutions typically between 10 and 50 km is not sufficient to capture the fine-scale processes and thresholds at play. Indeed, the altitudinal resolution matters, since the phase of precipitation is mainly controlled by the temperature which is altitude-dependent. Moreover, simulations from general circulation models (GCMs) and regional climate models (RCMs) suffer from biases compared to local observations, and often provide outputs at too coarse time resolution to drive impact models. RCM simulations must therefore be adjusted before they can be used to drive specific models such as land surface models. In this study, time series of hourly temperature, precipitation, wind speed, humidity, and short- and longwave radiation were generated over the Pyrenees for the period 1950-2100, by using a new approach (named ADAMONT for ADjustment of RCM outputs to MOuNTain regions) based on quantile mapping applied to daily data, followed by time disaggregation accounting for weather patterns selection. Meteorological observations used for the quantile mapping consist of the regional scale reanalysis SAFRAN, which operates at the scale of homogeneous areas on the order of 1000 km2 within which meteorological conditions vary only with elevation. SAFRAN combines large-scale NWP reanalysis (ERA40, ARPEGE) with in-situ meteorological observations. The SAFRAN reanalysis is available over the entire Pyrenean chain since 1980. Outputs from EURO-CORDEX simulations spanning 6 different RCMs forced by 6 different GCMs under 3 representative concentration pathways scenarios (RCP 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5) over Europe were downscaled at the massif scale and for 300 m elevation bands and statistically adjusted against the SAFRAN reanalysis. These corrected fields were then used to force the SURFEX/ISBA-Crocus land surface model over the Pyrenees. Here we present as an example a reanalysis and future projections (using adjusted EURO-CORDEX data) of meteorological and snow conditions obtained using this method at the site of La Mongie in the French Pyrenees, which we compare to in-situ observations carried out since the 1970s. These results further enable us to identify and apportion the main drivers for changes in snow conditions at the site, and the various uncertainty components at play. This work is a direct contribution of the French GICC ADAMONT project, and of the Interreg project "Clim'Py", aiming to develop the Pyrenean Observatory of Climate Change.

Large-scale impact of climate change vs. land-use change on future biome shifts in Latin America.

PubMed

Boit, Alice; Sakschewski, Boris; Boysen, Lena; Cano-Crespo, Ana; Clement, Jan; Garcia-Alaniz, Nashieli; Kok, Kasper; Kolb, Melanie; Langerwisch, Fanny; Rammig, Anja; Sachse, René; van Eupen, Michiel; von Bloh, Werner; Clara Zemp, Delphine; Thonicke, Kirsten

2016-11-01

Climate change and land-use change are two major drivers of biome shifts causing habitat and biodiversity loss. What is missing is a continental-scale future projection of the estimated relative impacts of both drivers on biome shifts over the course of this century. Here, we provide such a projection for the biodiverse region of Latin America under four socio-economic development scenarios. We find that across all scenarios 5-6% of the total area will undergo biome shifts that can be attributed to climate change until 2099. The relative impact of climate change on biome shifts may overtake land-use change even under an optimistic climate scenario, if land-use expansion is halted by the mid-century. We suggest that constraining land-use change and preserving the remaining natural vegetation early during this century creates opportunities to mitigate climate-change impacts during the second half of this century. Our results may guide the evaluation of socio-economic scenarios in terms of their potential for biome conservation under global change. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Using large-scale diagnostic quantities to investigate change in East Coast Lows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ji, Fei; Evans, Jason P.; Argueso, Daniel; Fita, Lluis; Di Luca, Alejandro

2015-11-01

East Coast Lows (ECLs) are intense low-pressure systems that affect the eastern seaboard of Australia. They have attracted research interest for both their destructive nature and water supplying capability. Estimating the changes in ECLs in the future has a major impact on emergency response as well as water management strategies for the coastal communities on the east coast of Australia. In this study, ECLs were identified using two large-scale diagnostic quantities: isentropic potential vorticity (IPV) and geostrophic vorticity (GV), which were calculated from outputs of historical and future regional climate simulations from the NSW/ACT regional climate modelling (NARCliM) project. The diagnostic results for the historical period were evaluated against a subjective ECL event database. Future simulations using a high emission scenario were examined to estimate changes in frequency, duration, and intensity of ECLs. The use of a relatively high resolution regional climate model makes this the first study to examine future changes in ECLs while resolving the full range of ECL sizes which can be as small as 100-200 km in diameter. The results indicate that it is likely that there will be fewer ECLs, with weaker intensity in the future. There could also be a seasonal shift in ECLs from cool months to warm months. These changes have the potential to significantly impact the water security on the east coast of Australia.

Web based visualization of large climate data sets

USGS Publications Warehouse

Alder, Jay R.; Hostetler, Steven W.

2015-01-01

We have implemented the USGS National Climate Change Viewer (NCCV), which is an easy-to-use web application that displays future projections from global climate models over the United States at the state, county and watershed scales. We incorporate the NASA NEX-DCP30 statistically downscaled temperature and precipitation for 30 global climate models being used in the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and hydrologic variables we simulated using a simple water-balance model. Our application summarizes very large, complex data sets at scales relevant to resource managers and citizens and makes climate-change projection information accessible to users of varying skill levels. Tens of terabytes of high-resolution climate and water-balance data are distilled to compact binary format summary files that are used in the application. To alleviate slow response times under high loads, we developed a map caching technique that reduces the time it takes to generate maps by several orders of magnitude. The reduced access time scales to >500 concurrent users. We provide code examples that demonstrate key aspects of data processing, data exporting/importing and the caching technique used in the NCCV.

Past and ongoing shifts in Joshua tree distribution support future modeled range contraction

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cole, Kenneth L.; Ironside, Kirsten; Eischeid, Jon K.; Garfin, Gregg; Duffy, Phil; Toney, Chris

2011-01-01

The future distribution of the Joshua tree (Yucca brevifolia) is projected by combining a geostatistical analysis of 20th-century climates over its current range, future modeled climates, and paleoecological data showing its response to a past similar climate change. As climate rapidly warmed ;11 700 years ago, the range of Joshua tree contracted, leaving only the populations near what had been its northernmost limit. Its ability to spread northward into new suitable habitats after this time may have been inhibited by the somewhat earlier extinction of megafaunal dispersers, especially the Shasta ground sloth. We applied a model of climate suitability for Joshua tree, developed from its 20th-century range and climates, to future climates modeled through a set of six individual general circulation models (GCM) and one suite of 22 models for the late 21st century. All distribution data, observed climate data, and future GCM results were scaled to spatial grids of ;1 km and ;4 km in order to facilitate application within this topographically complex region. All of the models project the future elimination of Joshua tree throughout most of the southern portions of its current range. Although estimates of future monthly precipitation differ between the models, these changes are outweighed by large increases in temperature common to all the models. Only a few populations within the current range are predicted to be sustainable. Several models project significant potential future expansion into new areas beyond the current range, but the species' Historical and current rates of dispersal would seem to prevent natural expansion into these new areas. Several areas are predicted to be potential sites for relocation/ assisted migration. This project demonstrates how information from paleoecology and modern ecology can be integrated in order to understand ongoing processes and future distributions.

Principles for an interactive multi-scale assessment of sustainable production limits - lessons from the Limpopo river basin case, South Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Froebrich, Jochen; de Cleccq, Willem; Veraart, Jeroen; Vullings, Wies

2015-04-01

About 7.2 billion people currently live on the Earth and the population is projected to reach 9.6 billion by 2050, that growth will be mainly in developing countries, with more than half in Africa (United Nations 2013). Any local extension of irrigated agriculture in a region of scarce natural resources may potentially restrict the possibility to extend land and water use at another location of the same river basin. In order to support, develop and to assess such future interventions, it is important to define limits until which a sustainable production can take place at a given location, taking into account competing claims on natural resources, human welfare and impacts on environmental quality. We define Sustainable production limits as limits for the possible resource use, within which a production can be extended without restricting the growth opportunities at a neighboured location. The more threatened the natural resources become, the more important it is to consider the effect of other upcoming interventions within the same region. As a consequence, interventions for future resource use have to be assessed against the future available natural resources. This is of particular relevance for evaluating possible extensions of irrigation areas within a river basin. Investigating possible limits for extending irrigated agriculture at local scale requires an understanding of the complexity, including boundaries, activities, stakeholders, and opportunities at river basin scale, and more. Switching between the scales in this information, in a participatory process, appears to be a challenge in its own. Within the Limpopo River basin (South Africa), we analysed (i) possible interventions at local scale (transdisciplinary innovation of irrigation by smallholders, launching of PPPs), (ii) restrictions for developing irrigation at the Letaba sub basin scale, and (iii) water balance at the scale of the Limpopo basin. Experiences from the Limpopo case revealed, that within the field of socio-hydrology interventions affecting land and water use, depend for a large part on entrepreneurial or at least human initiatives and an enabling environment. Such variables cannot be included in quantitative deterministic models. Therefore we have to find other ways to anticipate future developments. Furthermore for the upscaling - downscaling of local interventions it is important to reduce complexity. Instead of providing a plethora of scenarios, which will only hinder decision making, the process of defining sustainable production limits have to cumulate in a jointly shared strategy for the most likely future use of land, water and biodiversity resources. More experience must be gained how to facilitate such an interactive development of a jointly shared strategy best. Modern interactive IT tools can play a major role, but require a strong interaction with hydrological models and water balance calculation at the various scales. Acknowledgement The work has been partly executed within the EU project FP7 EAU4Food, the PPP project Inno Giyani, which is funded by the Dutch Government, and the Dutch funded project "More food on smaller footprint". The authors are grateful to all project partners and colleagues for the contributions and discussion.

Development and application of downscaled hydroclimatic predictor variables for use in climate vulnerability and assessment studies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thorne, James; Boynton, Ryan; Flint, Lorraine; Flint, Alan; N'goc Le, Thuy

2012-01-01

This paper outlines the production of 270-meter grid-scale maps for 14 climate and derivative hydrologic variables for a region that encompasses the State of California and all the streams that flow into it. The paper describes the Basin Characterization Model (BCM), a map-based, mechanistic model used to process the hydrological variables. Three historic and three future time periods of 30 years (1911–1940, 1941–1970, 1971–2000, 2010–2039, 2040–2069, and 2070–2099) were developed that summarize 180 years of monthly historic and future climate values. These comprise a standardized set of fine-scale climate data that were shared with 14 research groups, including the U.S. National Park Service and several University of California groups as part of this project. We present three analyses done with the outputs from the Basin Characterization Model: trends in hydrologic variables over baseline, the most recent 30-year period; a calibration and validation effort that uses measured discharge values from 139 streamgages and compares those to Basin Characterization Model-derived projections of discharge for the same basins; and an assessment of the trends of specific hydrological variables that links historical trend to projected future change under four future climate projections. Overall, increases in potential evapotranspiration dominate other influences in future hydrologic cycles. Increased potential evapotranspiration drives decreasing runoff even under forecasts with increased precipitation, and drives increased climatic water deficit, which may lead to conversion of dominant vegetation types across large parts of the study region as well as have implications for rain-fed agriculture. The potential evapotranspiration is driven by air temperatures, and the Basin Characterization Model permits it to be integrated with a water balance model that can be derived for landscapes and summarized by watershed. These results show the utility of using a process-based model with modules representing different hydrological pathways that can be inter-linked.

Predicting spatio-temporal failure in large scale observational and micro scale experimental systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de las Heras, Alejandro; Hu, Yong

2006-10-01

Forecasting has become an essential part of modern thought, but the practical limitations still are manifold. We addressed future rates of change by comparing models that take into account time, and models that focus more on space. Cox regression confirmed that linear change can be safely assumed in the short-term. Spatially explicit Poisson regression, provided a ceiling value for the number of deforestation spots. With several observed and estimated rates, it was decided to forecast using the more robust assumptions. A Markov-chain cellular automaton thus projected 5-year deforestation in the Amazonian Arc of Deforestation, showing that even a stable rate of change would largely deplete the forest area. More generally, resolution and implementation of the existing models could explain many of the modelling difficulties still affecting forecasting.

Designing an External Evaluation of a Large-Scale Software Development Project.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Collis, Betty; Moonen, Jef

This paper describes the design and implementation of the evaluation of the POCO Project, a large-scale national software project in the Netherlands which incorporates the perspective of an evaluator throughout the entire span of the project, and uses the experiences gained from it to suggest an evaluation procedure that could be applied to other…

78 FR 18348 - Submission for OMB Review; Use of Project Labor Agreements for Federal Construction Projects

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-03-26

... agreement (PLA), as they may decide appropriate, on large-scale construction projects, where the total cost... procurement. A PLA is a pre-hire collective bargaining agreement with one or more labor organizations that... the use of a project labor agreement (PLA), as they may decide appropriate, on large-scale...

Transitioning a home telehealth project into a sustainable, large-scale service: a qualitative study.

PubMed

Wade, Victoria A; Taylor, Alan D; Kidd, Michael R; Carati, Colin

2016-05-16

This study was a component of the Flinders Telehealth in the Home project, which tested adding home telehealth to existing rehabilitation, palliative care and geriatric outreach services. Due to the known difficulty of transitioning telehealth projects services, a qualitative study was conducted to produce a preferred implementation approach for sustainable and large-scale operations, and a process model that offers practical advice for achieving this goal. Initially, semi-structured interviews were conducted with senior clinicians, health service managers and policy makers, and a thematic analysis of the interview transcripts was undertaken to identify the range of options for ongoing operations, plus the factors affecting sustainability. Subsequently, the interviewees and other decision makers attended a deliberative forum in which participants were asked to select a preferred model for future implementation. Finally, all data from the study was synthesised by the researchers to produce a process model. 19 interviews with senior clinicians, managers, and service development staff were conducted, finding strong support for home telehealth but a wide diversity of views on governance, models of clinical care, technical infrastructure operations, and data management. The deliberative forum worked through these options and recommended a collaborative consortium approach for large-scale implementation. The process model proposes that the key factor for large-scale implementation is leadership support, which is enabled by 1) showing solutions to the problems of service demand, budgetary pressure and the relationship between hospital and primary care, 2) demonstrating how home telehealth aligns with health service policies, and 3) achieving clinician acceptance through providing evidence of benefit and developing new models of clinical care. Two key actions to enable change were marketing telehealth to patients, clinicians and policy-makers, and building a community of practice. The implementation of home telehealth services is still in an early stage. Change agents and a community of practice can contribute by marketing telehealth, demonstrating policy alignment and providing potential solutions for difficult health services problems. This should assist health leaders to move from trials to large-scale services.

Laser prospects for SPS and restoration of the ozone layer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kruzhilin, Yuri

1992-01-01

Large-scale applications of high-power lasers are considered (special experiments are described to confirm the feasibility of these applications) to achieve also large-scale environmental advantages. The possibility of producing electric energy by Laser-Solar Power Satellites in the near future is discussed. A full-scale experimental L-SPS satellite is suggested as a module of a global space energy network. Electric power of about 10 MW at the surface of the Earth is achievable as a result of energy conversion of laser radiation. L-SPS is based on the greatest advantages of present optics and laser techniques. Specialized-scale experiments are carried out and described. L-SPS project could provide real electricity for consumers not later than by highly developed fusion techniques, and the environmental aftereffects are quite favorable. A new method of power supply for satellites is suggested, based on the connection of an on-board electric circuit directly with the ground-based power grid by means of laser beams.

Using real options to evaluate the flexibility in the deployment of SMR

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Locatelli, G.; Mancini, M.; Ruiz, F.

2012-07-01

According to recent estimations the financial gap between Large Reactors (LR) and Small Medium Reactors (SMRs) seems not as huge as the economy of scale would suggest, so the SMRs are going to be important players of the worldwide nuclear renaissance. POLIMIs INCAS model has been developed to compare the investment in SMR with respect to LR. It provides the value of IRR (Internal Rate of Return), NPV (Net Present Value), LUEC (Levelized Unitary Electricity Cost), up-front investment, etc. The aim of this research is to integrate the actual INCAS model, based on discounted cash flows, with the real optionmore » theory to measure flexibility of the investor to expand, defer or abandon a nuclear project, under future uncertainties. The work compares the investment in a large nuclear power plant with a series of smaller, modular nuclear power plants on the same site. As a consequence it compares the benefits of the large power plant, coming from the economy of scale, to the benefit of the modular project (flexibility) concluding that managerial flexibility can be measured and used by an investor to face the investment risks. (authors)« less

Model projections of atmospheric steering of Sandy-like superstorms

PubMed Central

Barnes, Elizabeth A.; Polvani, Lorenzo M.; Sobel, Adam H.

2013-01-01

Superstorm Sandy ravaged the eastern seaboard of the United States, costing a great number of lives and billions of dollars in damage. Whether events like Sandy will become more frequent as anthropogenic greenhouse gases continue to increase remains an open and complex question. Here we consider whether the persistent large-scale atmospheric patterns that steered Sandy onto the coast will become more frequent in the coming decades. Using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5 multimodel ensemble, we demonstrate that climate models consistently project a decrease in the frequency and persistence of the westward flow that led to Sandy’s unprecedented track, implying that future atmospheric conditions are less likely than at present to propel storms westward into the coast. PMID:24003129

Multi-model projections of Indian summer monsoon climate changes under A1B scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Niu, X.; Wang, S.; Tang, J.

2016-12-01

As part of the Regional Climate Model Intercomparison Project for Asia, the projections of Indian summer monsoon climate changes are constructed using three global climate models (GCMs) and seven regional climate models (RCMs) during 2041-2060 based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change A1B emission scenario. For the control climate of 1981-2000, most nested RCMs show advantage over the driving GCM of European Centre/Hamburg Fifth Generation (ECHAM5) in the temporal-spatial distributions of temperature and precipitation over Indian Peninsula. Following the driving GCM of ECHAM5, most nested RCMs produce advanced monsoon onset in the control climate. For future climate widespread summer warming is projected over Indian Peninsula by all climate models, with the Multi-RCMs ensemble mean (MME) temperature increasing of 1°C to 2.5°C and the maximum warming center located in northern Indian Peninsula. While for the precipitation, a large inter-model spread is projected by RCMs, with wetter condition in MME projections and significant increase over southern India. Driven by the same GCM, most RCMs project advanced monsoon onset while delayed onset is found in two Regional Climate Model (RegCM3) projections, indicating uncertainty can be expected in the Indian Summer Monsoon onset. All climate models except Conformal-Cubic Atmospheric Model with equal resolution (referred as CCAMP) and two RegCM3 models project stronger summer monsoon during 2041-2060. The disagreement in precipitation projections by RCMs indicates that the surface climate change on regional scale is not only dominated by the large-scale forcing which is provided by driving GCM but also sensitive to RCM' internal physics.

Project Management Life Cycle Models to Improve Management in High-rise Construction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burmistrov, Andrey; Siniavina, Maria; Iliashenko, Oksana

2018-03-01

The paper describes a possibility to improve project management in high-rise buildings construction through the use of various Project Management Life Cycle Models (PMLC models) based on traditional and agile project management approaches. Moreover, the paper describes, how the split the whole large-scale project to the "project chain" will create the factor for better manageability of the large-scale buildings project and increase the efficiency of the activities of all participants in such projects.

What Works? Common Practices in High Functioning Afterschool Programs across the Nation in Math, Reading, Science, Arts, Technology, and Homework--A Study by the National Partnership. The Afterschool Program Assessment Guide. CRESST Report 768

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Huang, Denise; Cho, Jamie; Mostafavi, Sima; Nam, Hannah H.; Oh, Christine; Harven, Aletha; Leon, Seth

2010-01-01

In an effort to identify and incorporate exemplary practices into existing and future afterschool programs, the U.S. Department of Education commissioned a large-scale evaluation of the 21st Century Community Learning Center (CCLC) program. The purpose of this evaluation project was to develop resources and professional development that addresses…

Ensembl Genomes 2013: scaling up access to genome-wide data.

PubMed

Kersey, Paul Julian; Allen, James E; Christensen, Mikkel; Davis, Paul; Falin, Lee J; Grabmueller, Christoph; Hughes, Daniel Seth Toney; Humphrey, Jay; Kerhornou, Arnaud; Khobova, Julia; Langridge, Nicholas; McDowall, Mark D; Maheswari, Uma; Maslen, Gareth; Nuhn, Michael; Ong, Chuang Kee; Paulini, Michael; Pedro, Helder; Toneva, Iliana; Tuli, Mary Ann; Walts, Brandon; Williams, Gareth; Wilson, Derek; Youens-Clark, Ken; Monaco, Marcela K; Stein, Joshua; Wei, Xuehong; Ware, Doreen; Bolser, Daniel M; Howe, Kevin Lee; Kulesha, Eugene; Lawson, Daniel; Staines, Daniel Michael

2014-01-01

Ensembl Genomes (http://www.ensemblgenomes.org) is an integrating resource for genome-scale data from non-vertebrate species. The project exploits and extends technologies for genome annotation, analysis and dissemination, developed in the context of the vertebrate-focused Ensembl project, and provides a complementary set of resources for non-vertebrate species through a consistent set of programmatic and interactive interfaces. These provide access to data including reference sequence, gene models, transcriptional data, polymorphisms and comparative analysis. This article provides an update to the previous publications about the resource, with a focus on recent developments. These include the addition of important new genomes (and related data sets) including crop plants, vectors of human disease and eukaryotic pathogens. In addition, the resource has scaled up its representation of bacterial genomes, and now includes the genomes of over 9000 bacteria. Specific extensions to the web and programmatic interfaces have been developed to support users in navigating these large data sets. Looking forward, analytic tools to allow targeted selection of data for visualization and download are likely to become increasingly important in future as the number of available genomes increases within all domains of life, and some of the challenges faced in representing bacterial data are likely to become commonplace for eukaryotes in future.

Geospatial Optimization of Siting Large-Scale Solar Projects

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Macknick, Jordan; Quinby, Ted; Caulfield, Emmet

2014-03-01

Recent policy and economic conditions have encouraged a renewed interest in developing large-scale solar projects in the U.S. Southwest. However, siting large-scale solar projects is complex. In addition to the quality of the solar resource, solar developers must take into consideration many environmental, social, and economic factors when evaluating a potential site. This report describes a proof-of-concept, Web-based Geographical Information Systems (GIS) tool that evaluates multiple user-defined criteria in an optimization algorithm to inform discussions and decisions regarding the locations of utility-scale solar projects. Existing siting recommendations for large-scale solar projects from governmental and non-governmental organizations are not consistent withmore » each other, are often not transparent in methods, and do not take into consideration the differing priorities of stakeholders. The siting assistance GIS tool we have developed improves upon the existing siting guidelines by being user-driven, transparent, interactive, capable of incorporating multiple criteria, and flexible. This work provides the foundation for a dynamic siting assistance tool that can greatly facilitate siting decisions among multiple stakeholders.« less

Evaluating impacts of climate change on future water scarcity in an intensively managed semi-arid region using a coupled model of biophysical processes and water rights

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, B.; Flores, A. N.; Benner, S. G.

2017-12-01

In semiarid and arid regions where water supply is intensively managed, future water scarcity is a product of complex interactions between climate change and human activities. Evaluating future water scarcity under alternative scenarios of climate change, therefore, necessitates modeling approaches that explicitly represent the coupled biophysical and social processes responsible for the redistribution of water in these regions. At regional scales a particular challenge lies in adequately capturing not only the central tendencies of change in projections of climate change, but also the associated plausible range of variability in those projections. This study develops a framework that combines a stochastic weather generator, historical climate observations, and statistically downscaled General Circulation Model (GCM) projections. The method generates a large ensemble of daily climate realizations, avoiding deficiencies of using a few or mean values of individual GCM realizations. Three climate change scenario groups reflecting the historical, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 future projections are developed. Importantly, the model explicitly captures the spatiotemporally varying irrigation activities as constrained by local water rights in a rapidly growing, semi-arid human-environment system in southwest Idaho. We use this modeling framework to project water use and scarcity patterns under the three future climate change scenarios. The model is built using the Envision alternative futures modeling framework. Climate projections for the region show future increases in both precipitation and temperature, especially under the RCP8.5 scenario. The increase of temperature has a direct influence on the increase of the irrigation water use and water scarcity, while the influence of increased precipitation on water use is less clear. The predicted changes are potentially useful in identifying areas in the watershed particularly sensitive to water scarcity, the relative importance of changes in precipitation versus temperature as a driver of scarcity, and potential shortcomings of the current water management framework in the region.

Projected increase in El Niño-driven tropical cyclone frequency in the Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chand, Savin S.; Tory, Kevin J.; Ye, Hua; Walsh, Kevin J. E.

2017-02-01

The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) drives substantial variability in tropical cyclone (TC) activity around the world. However, it remains uncertain how the projected future changes in ENSO under greenhouse warming will affect TC activity, apart from an expectation that the overall frequency of TCs is likely to decrease for most ocean basins. Here we show robust changes in ENSO-driven variability in TC occurrence by the late twenty-first century. In particular, we show that TCs become more frequent (~20-40%) during future-climate El Niño events compared with present-climate El Niño events--and less frequent during future-climate La Niña events--around a group of small island nations (for example, Fiji, Vanuatu, Marshall Islands and Hawaii) in the Pacific. We examine TCs across 20 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 database, forced under historical and greenhouse warming conditions. The 12 most realistic models identified show a strong consensus on El Niño-driven changes in future-climate large-scale environmental conditions that modulate development of TCs over the off-equatorial western Pacific and the central North Pacific regions. These results have important implications for climate change and adaptation pathways for the vulnerable Pacific island nations.

Past and future changes in streamflow in the U.S. Midwest: Bridging across time scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Villarini, G.; Slater, L. J.; Salvi, K. A.

2017-12-01

Streamflows have increased notably across the U.S. Midwest over the past century, principally due to changes in precipitation and land use / land cover. Improving our understanding of the physical drivers that are responsible for the observed changes in discharge may enhance our capability of predicting and projecting these changes, and may have large implications for water resources management over this area. This study will highlight our efforts towards the statistical attribution of changes in discharge across the U.S. Midwest, with analyses performed at the seasonal scale from low to high flows. The main drivers of changing streamflows that we focus on are: urbanization, agricultural land cover, basin-averaged temperature, basin-averaged precipitation, and antecedent soil moisture. Building on the insights from this attribution, we will examine the potential predictability of streamflow across different time scales, with lead times ranging from seasonal to decadal, and discuss a potential path forward for engineering design for future conditions.

'Big data', Hadoop and cloud computing in genomics.

PubMed

O'Driscoll, Aisling; Daugelaite, Jurate; Sleator, Roy D

2013-10-01

Since the completion of the Human Genome project at the turn of the Century, there has been an unprecedented proliferation of genomic sequence data. A consequence of this is that the medical discoveries of the future will largely depend on our ability to process and analyse large genomic data sets, which continue to expand as the cost of sequencing decreases. Herein, we provide an overview of cloud computing and big data technologies, and discuss how such expertise can be used to deal with biology's big data sets. In particular, big data technologies such as the Apache Hadoop project, which provides distributed and parallelised data processing and analysis of petabyte (PB) scale data sets will be discussed, together with an overview of the current usage of Hadoop within the bioinformatics community. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The Hubble Space Telescope's Student ERO Pilot Project: Implementing Formal and Informal Collaborative Projects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eisenhamer, Bonnie; Ryer, H.; McCallister, D.; Taylor, J.; Bishop, M.

2010-05-01

The Hubble Space Telescope's Early Release Observations (EROs) were revealed to the public on September 9, 2009, and K-12 students and educators in six states across the country are joining in the celebration. Students and educators in Maryland, Ohio, New York, California, New Mexico, and Delaware have been invited to participate in the Hubble Space Telescope's Student ERO Pilot Project. This is an interdisciplinary project created by STScI's Office of Public Outreach in which students research the four ERO objects and create various types of projects. In recognition of their participation, the projects are displayed at host institutions in each state (museum, science center, school, planetarium or library) during a special public event for participating students, their families, and teachers. As part of its evaluation program, STScI's Office of Public Outreach has been conducting an evaluation of the project to determine the viability and potential of conducting large-scale, formal/informal collaborative projects in the future. This poster will highlight preliminary findings and share lessons learned.

Ordering Unstructured Meshes for Sparse Matrix Computations on Leading Parallel Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Oliker, Leonid; Li, Xiaoye; Heber, Gerd; Biswas, Rupak

2000-01-01

The ability of computers to solve hitherto intractable problems and simulate complex processes using mathematical models makes them an indispensable part of modern science and engineering. Computer simulations of large-scale realistic applications usually require solving a set of non-linear partial differential equations (PDES) over a finite region. For example, one thrust area in the DOE Grand Challenge projects is to design future accelerators such as the SpaHation Neutron Source (SNS). Our colleagues at SLAC need to model complex RFQ cavities with large aspect ratios. Unstructured grids are currently used to resolve the small features in a large computational domain; dynamic mesh adaptation will be added in the future for additional efficiency. The PDEs for electromagnetics are discretized by the FEM method, which leads to a generalized eigenvalue problem Kx = AMx, where K and M are the stiffness and mass matrices, and are very sparse. In a typical cavity model, the number of degrees of freedom is about one million. For such large eigenproblems, direct solution techniques quickly reach the memory limits. Instead, the most widely-used methods are Krylov subspace methods, such as Lanczos or Jacobi-Davidson. In all the Krylov-based algorithms, sparse matrix-vector multiplication (SPMV) must be performed repeatedly. Therefore, the efficiency of SPMV usually determines the eigensolver speed. SPMV is also one of the most heavily used kernels in large-scale numerical simulations.

Priority Questions and Horizon Scanning for Conservation: A Comparative Study

PubMed Central

Kark, Salit; Sutherland, William J.; Shanas, Uri; Klass, Keren; Achisar, Hila; Dayan, Tamar; Gavrieli, Yael; Justo-Hanani, Ronit; Mandelik, Yael; Orion, Nir; Pargament, David; Portman, Michelle; Reisman-Berman, Orna; Safriel, Uriel N.; Schaffer, Gad; Steiner, Noa; Tauber, Israel; Levin, Noam

2016-01-01

Several projects aimed at identifying priority issues for conservation with high relevance to policy have recently been completed in several countries. Two major types of projects have been undertaken, aimed at identifying (i) policy-relevant questions most imperative to conservation and (ii) horizon scanning topics, defined as emerging issues that are expected to have substantial implications for biodiversity conservation and policy in the future. Here, we provide the first overview of the outcomes of biodiversity and conservation-oriented projects recently completed around the world using this framework. We also include the results of the first questions and horizon scanning project completed for a Mediterranean country. Overall, the outcomes of the different projects undertaken (at the global scale, in the UK, US, Canada, Switzerland and in Israel) were strongly correlated in terms of the proportion of questions and/or horizon scanning topics selected when comparing different topic areas. However, some major differences were found across regions. There was large variation among regions in the percentage of proactive (i.e. action and response oriented) versus descriptive (non-response oriented) priority questions and in the emphasis given to socio-political issues. Substantial differences were also found when comparing outcomes of priority questions versus horizon scanning projects undertaken for the same region. For example, issues related to climate change, human demography and marine ecosystems received higher priority as horizon scanning topics, while ecosystem services were more emphasized as current priority questions. We suggest that future initiatives aimed at identifying priority conservation questions and horizon scanning topics should allow simultaneous identification of both current and future priority issues, as presented here for the first time. We propose that further emphasis on social-political issues should be explicitly integrated into future related projects. PMID:26815653

A Dynamic Evaluation Of A Model And An Estimate Of The Air Quality And Regional Climate Impacts Of Enhanced Solar Power Generation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Millstein, D.; Brown, N. J.; Zhai, P.; Menon, S.

2012-12-01

We use the WRF/Chem model (Weather Research and Forecasting model with chemistry) and pollutant emissions based on the EPA National Emission Inventories from 2005 and 2008 to model regional climate and air quality over the continental United States. Additionally, 2030 emission scenarios are developed to investigate the effects of future enhancements to solar power generation. Modeling covered 6 summer and 6 winter weeks each year. We model feedback between aerosols and meteorology and thus capture direct and indirect aerosol effects. The grid resolution is 25 km and includes no nesting. Between 2005 and 2008 significant emission reductions were reported in the National Emission Inventory. The 2008 weekday emissions over the continental U.S. of SO2 and NO were reduced from 2005 values by 28% and 16%, respectively. Emission reductions of this magnitude are similar in scale to the potential emission reductions from various energy policy initiatives. By evaluating modeled and observed air quality changes from 2005 to 2008, we analyze how well the model represents the effects of historical emission changes. We also gain insight into how well the model might predict the effects of future emission changes. In addition to direct comparisons of model outputs to ground and satellite observations, we compare observed differences between 2005 and 2008 to corresponding modeled differences. Modeling was extended to future scenarios (2030) to simulate air quality and regional climate effects of large-scale adoption of solar power. The 2030-year was selected to allow time for development of solar generation infrastructure. The 2030 emission scenario was scaled, with separate factors for different economic sectors, from the 2008 National Emissions Inventory. The changes to emissions caused by the introduction of large-scale solar power (here assumed to be 10% of total energy generation) are based on results from a parallel project that used an electricity grid model applied over multiple regions across the country. The regional climate and air quality effects of future large-scale solar power adoption are analyzed in the context of uncertainty quantified by the dynamic evaluation of the historical (2005 and 2008) WRF/Chem simulations.

The Segmented Aperture Interferometric Nulling Testbed (SAINT) I: overview and air-side system description

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hicks, Brian A.; Lyon, Richard G.; Petrone, Peter; Ballard, Marlin; Bolcar, Matthew R.; Bolognese, Jeff; Clampin, Mark; Dogoda, Peter; Dworzanski, Daniel; Helmbrecht, Michael A.; Koca, Corina; Shiri, Ron

2016-07-01

This work presents an overview of the Segmented Aperture Interferometric Nulling Testbed (SAINT), a project that will pair an actively-controlled macro-scale segmented mirror with the Visible Nulling Coronagraph (VNC). SAINT will incorporate the VNC's demonstrated wavefront sensing and control system to refine and quantify end-to-end high-contrast starlight suppression performance. This pathfinder testbed will be used as a tool to study and refine approaches to mitigating instabilities and complex diffraction expected from future large segmented aperture telescopes.

Conservation economics. Comment on "Using ecological thresholds to evaluate the costs and benefits of set-asides in a biodiversity hotspot".

PubMed

Finney, Christopher

2015-02-13

Banks-Leite et al. (Reports, 29 August 2014, p. 1041) conclude that a large-scale program to restore the Brazilian Atlantic Forest using payments for environmental services (PES) is economically feasible. They do not analyze transaction costs, which are quantified infrequently and incompletely in the literature. Transaction costs can exceed 20% of total project costs and should be included in future research. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Recent advances in research on climate and human conflict

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hsiang, S. M.

2014-12-01

A rapidly growing body of empirical, quantitative research examines whether rates of human conflict can be systematically altered by climatic changes. We discuss recent advances in this field, including Bayesian meta-analyses of the effect of temperature and rainfall on current and future large-scale conflicts, the impact of climate variables on gang violence and suicides in Mexico, and probabilistic projections of personal violence and property crime in the United States under RCP scenarios. Criticisms of this research field will also be explained and addressed.

Building and measuring a high performance network architecture

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kramer, William T.C.; Toole, Timothy; Fisher, Chuck

2001-04-20

Once a year, the SC conferences present a unique opportunity to create and build one of the most complex and highest performance networks in the world. At SC2000, large-scale and complex local and wide area networking connections were demonstrated, including large-scale distributed applications running on different architectures. This project was designed to use the unique opportunity presented at SC2000 to create a testbed network environment and then use that network to demonstrate and evaluate high performance computational and communication applications. This testbed was designed to incorporate many interoperable systems and services and was designed for measurement from the very beginning.more » The end results were key insights into how to use novel, high performance networking technologies and to accumulate measurements that will give insights into the networks of the future.« less

Experience in managing a large-scale rescreening of Papanicolaou smears and the pros and cons of measuring proficiency with visual and written examinations.

PubMed

Rube, I F

1989-01-01

Experiences in a large-scale interlaboratory rescreening of Papanicolaou smears are detailed, and the pros and cons of measuring proficiency in cytology are discussed. Despite the additional work of the rescreening project and some psychological and technical problems, it proved to be a useful measure of the laboratory's performance as a whole. One problem to be avoided in future similar studies is the creation of too many diagnostic categories. Individual testing and certification have been shown to be accurate predictors of proficiency. For cytology, such tests require a strong visual component to test interpretation and judgment skills, such as by the use of glass slides or photomicrographs. The potential of interactive videodisc technology for facilitating cytopathologic teaching and assessment is discussed.

Study of Travelling Interplanetary Phenomena Report

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dryer, Murray

1987-09-01

Scientific progress on the topic of energy, mass, and momentum transport from the Sun into the heliosphere is contingent upon interdisciplinary and international cooperative efforts on the part of many workers. Summarized here is a report of some highlights of research carried out during the SMY/SMA by the STIP (Study of Travelling Interplanetary Phenomena) Project that included solar and interplanetary scientists around the world. These highlights are concerned with coronal mass ejections from solar flares or erupting prominences (sometimes together); their large-scale consequences in interplanetary space (such as shocks and magnetic 'bubbles'); and energetic particles and their relationship to these large-scale structures. It is concluded that future progress is contingent upon similar international programs assisted by real-time (or near-real-time) warnings of solar activity by cooperating agencies along the lines experienced during the SMY/SMA.

Current and Future Decadal Trends in the Oceanic Carbon Uptake Are Dominated by Internal Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Hongmei; Ilyina, Tatiana

2018-01-01

We investigate the internal decadal variability of the ocean carbon uptake using 100 ensemble simulations based on the Max Planck Institute Earth system model (MPI-ESM). We find that on decadal time scales, internal variability (ensemble spread) is as large as the forced temporal variability (ensemble mean), and the largest internal variability is found in major carbon sink regions, that is, the 50-65°S band of the Southern Ocean, the North Pacific, and the North Atlantic. The MPI-ESM ensemble produces both positive and negative 10 year trends in the ocean carbon uptake in agreement with observational estimates. Negative decadal trends are projected to occur in the future under RCP4.5 scenario. Due to the large internal variability, the Southern Ocean and the North Pacific require the most ensemble members (more than 53 and 46, respectively) to reproduce the forced decadal trends. This number increases up to 79 in future decades as CO2 emission trajectory changes.

Towards a More Biologically-meaningful Climate Characterization: Variability in Space and Time at Multiple Scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Christianson, D. S.; Kaufman, C. G.; Kueppers, L. M.; Harte, J.

2013-12-01

Sampling limitations and current modeling capacity justify the common use of mean temperature values in summaries of historical climate and future projections. However, a monthly mean temperature representing a 1-km2 area on the landscape is often unable to capture the climate complexity driving organismal and ecological processes. Estimates of variability in addition to mean values are more biologically meaningful and have been shown to improve projections of range shifts for certain species. Historical analyses of variance and extreme events at coarse spatial scales, as well as coarse-scale projections, show increasing temporal variability in temperature with warmer means. Few studies have considered how spatial variance changes with warming, and analysis for both temporal and spatial variability across scales is lacking. It is unclear how the spatial variability of fine-scale conditions relevant to plant and animal individuals may change given warmer coarse-scale mean values. A change in spatial variability will affect the availability of suitable habitat on the landscape and thus, will influence future species ranges. By characterizing variability across both temporal and spatial scales, we can account for potential bias in species range projections that use coarse climate data and enable improvements to current models. In this study, we use temperature data at multiple spatial and temporal scales to characterize spatial and temporal variability under a warmer climate, i.e., increased mean temperatures. Observational data from the Sierra Nevada (California, USA), experimental climate manipulation data from the eastern and western slopes of the Rocky Mountains (Colorado, USA), projected CMIP5 data for California (USA) and observed PRISM data (USA) allow us to compare characteristics of a mean-variance relationship across spatial scales ranging from sub-meter2 to 10,000 km2 and across temporal scales ranging from hours to decades. Preliminary spatial analysis at fine-spatial scales (sub-meter to 10-meter) shows greater temperature variability with warmer mean temperatures. This is inconsistent with the inherent assumption made in current species distribution models that fine-scale variability is static, implying that current projections of future species ranges may be biased -- the direction and magnitude requiring further study. While we focus our findings on the cross-scaling characteristics of temporal and spatial variability, we also compare the mean-variance relationship between 1) experimental climate manipulations and observed conditions and 2) temporal versus spatial variance, i.e., variability in a time-series at one location vs. variability across a landscape at a single time. The former informs the rich debate concerning the ability to experimentally mimic a warmer future. The latter informs space-for-time study design and analyses, as well as species persistence via a combined spatiotemporal probability of suitable future habitat.

Emergence of new hydrologic regimes of surface water resources in the conterminous United States under future warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leng, Guoyong; Huang, Maoyi; Voisin, Nathalie; Zhang, Xuesong; Asrar, Ghassem R.; Leung, L. Ruby

2016-11-01

Despite the importance of surface water to people and ecosystems, few studies have explored detectable changes in surface water supply in a changing climate, given its large natural variability. Here we analyze runoff projections from the Variable Infiltration Capacity hydrological model driven by 97 downscaled and bias-corrected Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate projections over the conterminous United States (CONUS). Our results show that more than 40% of the CONUS land area will experience significant changes in the probability distribution functions (i.e. PDFs) of summer and winter runoff by the end of the 21st century, which may pose great challenges to future surface water supply. Sub-basin mean runoff PDFs are projected to change significantly after 2040s depending on the emission scenarios, with earliest occurrence in the Pacific Northwest and northern California regions. When examining the response as a function of changes in the global mean temperature (ΔGMT), a linear relationship is revealed at the 95% confidence level. Generally, 1 °C increase of GMT leads to 11% and 17% more lands experiencing changes in summer and winter runoff PDFs, respectively. Such changes in land fraction scale with ΔGMT at the country scale independent of emission scenarios, but the same relationship does not necessarily hold at sub-basin scales, due to the larger role of atmospheric circulation changes and their uncertainties on regional precipitation. Further analyses show that the emergence of significant changes in sub-basin runoff PDFs is indicative of the emergence of new hydrology regimes and it is dominated by the changes in variability rather than shift in the mean, regardless of the emission scenarios.

Will surface winds weaken in response to global warming?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Jian; Foltz, Gregory R.; Soden, Brian J.; Huang, Gang; He, Jie; Dong, Changming

2016-12-01

The surface Walker and tropical tropospheric circulations have been inferred to slow down from historical observations and model projections, yet analysis of large-scale surface wind predictions is lacking. Satellite measurements of surface wind speed indicate strengthening trends averaged over the global and tropical oceans that are supported by precipitation and evaporation changes. Here we use corrected anemometer-based observations to show that the surface wind speed has not decreased in the averaged tropical oceans, despite its reduction in the region of the Walker circulation. Historical simulations and future projections for climate change also suggest a near-zero wind speed trend averaged in space, regardless of the Walker cell change. In the tropics, the sea surface temperature pattern effect acts against the large-scale circulation slow-down. For higher latitudes, the surface winds shift poleward along with the eddy-driven mid-latitude westerlies, resulting in a very small contribution to the global change in surface wind speed. Despite its importance for surface wind speed change, the influence of the SST pattern change on global-mean rainfall is insignificant since it cannot substantially alter the global energy balance. As a result, the precipitation response to global warming remains ‘muted’ relative to atmospheric moisture increase. Our results therefore show consistency between projections and observations of surface winds and precipitation.

A Large Scale Wind Tunnel for the Study of High Reynolds Number Turbulent Boundary Layer Physics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Priyadarshana, Paththage; Klewicki, Joseph; Wosnik, Martin; White, Chris

2008-11-01

Progress and the basic features of the University of New Hampshire's very large multi-disciplinary wind tunnel are reported. The refinement of the overall design has been greatly aided through consultations with an external advisory group. The facility test section is 73 m long, 6 m wide, and 2.5 m nominally high, and the maximum free stream velocity is 30 m/s. A very large tunnel with relatively low velocities makes the small scale turbulent motions resolvable by existing measurement systems. The maximum Reynolds number is estimated at &+circ;= δuτ/ν˜50000, where δ is the boundary layer thickness and uτ is the friction velocity. The effects of scale separation on the generation of the Reynolds stress gradient appearing in the mean momentum equation are briefly discussed to justify the need to attain &+circ; in excess of about 40000. Lastly, plans for future utilization of the facility as a community-wide resource are outlined. This project is supported through the NSF-EPSCoR RII Program, grant number EPS0701730.

Future potential distribution of the emerging amphibian chytrid fungus under anthropogenic climate change.

PubMed

Rödder, Dennis; Kielgast, Jos; Lötters, Stefan

2010-11-01

Anthropogenic climate change poses a major threat to global biodiversity with a potential to alter biological interactions at all spatial scales. Amphibians are the most threatened vertebrates and have been subject to increasing conservation attention over the past decade. A particular concern is the pandemic emergence of the parasitic chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, which has been identified as the cause of extremely rapid large-scale declines and species extinctions. Experimental and observational studies have demonstrated that the host-pathogen system is strongly influenced by climatic parameters and thereby potentially affected by climate change. Herein we project a species distribution model of the pathogen onto future climatic scenarios generated by the IPCC to examine their potential implications on the pandemic. Results suggest that predicted anthropogenic climate change may reduce the geographic range of B. dendrobatidis and its potential influence on amphibian biodiversity.

Psychology in an Interdisciplinary Setting: A Large-Scale Project to Improve University Teaching

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Koch, Franziska D.; Vogt, Joachim

2015-01-01

At a German university of technology, a large-scale project was funded as a part of the "Quality Pact for Teaching", a programme launched by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research to improve the quality of university teaching and study conditions. The project aims at intensifying interdisciplinary networking in teaching,…

Socio-economic and Engineering Assessments of Renewable Energy Cost Reduction Potential

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seel, Joachim

This dissertation combines three perspectives on the potential of cost reductions of renewable energy--a relevant topic, as high energy costs have traditionally been cited as major reason to vindicate developments of fossil fuel and nuclear power plants, and to justify financial support mechanisms and special incentives for renewable energy generators. First, I highlight the role of market and policy drivers in an international comparison of upfront capital expenses of residential photovoltaic systems in Germany and the United States that result in price differences of a factor of two and suggest cost reduction opportunities. In a second article I examine engineering approaches and siting considerations of large-scale photovoltaic projects in the United States that enable substantial system performance increases and allow thus for lower energy costs on a levelized basis. Finally, I investigate future cost reduction options of wind energy, ranging from capital expenses, operating expenses, and performance over a project's lifetime to financing costs. The assessment shows both substantial further cost decline potential for mature technologies like land-based turbines, nascent technologies like fixed-bottom offshore turbines, and experimental technologies like floating offshore turbines. The following paragraphs summarize each analysis: International upfront capital cost comparison of residential solar systems: Residential photovoltaic (PV) systems were twice as expensive in the United States as in Germany in 2012. This price discrepancy stems primarily from differences in non-hardware or "soft" costs between the two countries, of which only 35% be explained by differences in cumulative market size and associated learning. A survey of German PV installers was deployed to collect granular data on PV soft costs in Germany, and the results are compared to those of a similar survey of U.S. PV installers. Non-module hardware costs and all analyzed soft costs are lower in Germany, especially for customer acquisition, installation labor, and profit/overhead costs, but also for expenses related to permitting, interconnection, and inspection procedures. Additional costs occur in the United States due to state and local sales taxes, smaller average system sizes, and longer project-development times. To reduce the identified additional costs of residential PV systems, the United States could introduce policies that enable a robust and lasting market while minimizing market fragmentation. Regularly declining incentives offering a transparent and certain value proposition might help accelerate PV cost reductions in the United States. Performance analysis of large-scale solar installations in the United States: This paper presents the first known use of multi-variate regression techniques to statistically explore empirical variation in utility-scale PV project performance across the United States. Among a sample of 128 utility-scale PV projects totaling 3,201 MWAC, net capacity factors in 2014 varied by more than a factor of two. Regression models developed for this analysis find that just three highly significant independent variables can explain 92% of this project-level variation. Adding the commercial operation year as a fourth independent variable and three interactive variables improves the model further and reveals interesting relationships. Taken together, the empirical data and statistical modeling results presented in this paper can provide a useful indication of the level of performance that solar project developers and investors can expect from various project configurations in different regions of the United States. Moreover, the tight relationship between fitted and actual capacity factors should instill confidence among investors that the utility-scale projects in this sample have largely performed as predicted by our models, with no significant outliers to date. Holistic assessment of future cost reduction opportunities of wind energy applications: Wind energy supply has grown rapidly over the last decade. However, the long-term contribution of wind to future energy supply, and the degree to which policy support is necessary to motivate higher levels of deployment, depends on the future costs of both onshore and offshore wind. Here, I summarize the results of an expert elicitation survey of 163 of the world's foremost wind experts, aimed at better understanding future costs and technology advancement possibilities. Results suggest significant opportunities for cost reductions, but also underlying uncertainties. Costs could be even lower: experts predict a 10% chance that reductions will be more than 40% by 2030 and more than 50% by 2050. The main identified drivers for near term cost reductions are rotor-related advancements and taller towers for onshore installations, fixed-bottom offshore turbines can benefit from an upscaling in generator capacity, streamlined foundation design and reduced financing costs, while floating offshore turbines require further progress in buoyant support structure design and installation process efficiencies. Insights gained through this expert elicitation complement other tools for evaluating cost-reduction potential, and help inform policy, planning, R&D, and industry strategy. (Abstract shortened by ProQuest.).

Projected changes to South Atlantic boundary currents and confluence region in the CMIP5 models: the role of wind and deep ocean changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pontes, G. M.; Gupta, A. Sen; Taschetto, A. S.

2016-09-01

The South Atlantic (SA) circulation plays an important role in the oceanic teleconnections from the Indian, Pacific and Southern oceans to the North Atlantic, with inter-hemispheric exchanges of heat and salt. Here, we show that the large-scale features of the SA circulation are projected to change significantly under ‘business as usual’ greenhouse gas increases. Based on 19 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 there is a projected weakening in the upper ocean interior transport (<1000 m) between 15° and ˜32°S, largely related to a weakening of the wind stress curl over this region. The reduction in ocean interior circulation is largely compensated by a decrease in the net deep southward ocean transport (>1000 m), mainly related to a decrease in the North Atlantic deep water transport. Between 30° and 40°S, there is a consistent projected intensification in the Brazil current strength of about 40% (30%-58% interquartile range) primarily compensated by an intensification of the upper interior circulation across the Indo-Atlantic basin. The Brazil-Malvinas confluence is projected to shift southwards, driven by a weakening of the Malvinas current. Such a change could have important implications for the distribution of marine species in the southwestern SA in the future.

Active Self-Testing Noise Measurement Sensors for Large-Scale Environmental Sensor Networks

PubMed Central

Domínguez, Federico; Cuong, Nguyen The; Reinoso, Felipe; Touhafi, Abdellah; Steenhaut, Kris

2013-01-01

Large-scale noise pollution sensor networks consist of hundreds of spatially distributed microphones that measure environmental noise. These networks provide historical and real-time environmental data to citizens and decision makers and are therefore a key technology to steer environmental policy. However, the high cost of certified environmental microphone sensors render large-scale environmental networks prohibitively expensive. Several environmental network projects have started using off-the-shelf low-cost microphone sensors to reduce their costs, but these sensors have higher failure rates and produce lower quality data. To offset this disadvantage, we developed a low-cost noise sensor that actively checks its condition and indirectly the integrity of the data it produces. The main design concept is to embed a 13 mm speaker in the noise sensor casing and, by regularly scheduling a frequency sweep, estimate the evolution of the microphone's frequency response over time. This paper presents our noise sensor's hardware and software design together with the results of a test deployment in a large-scale environmental network in Belgium. Our middle-range-value sensor (around €50) effectively detected all experienced malfunctions, in laboratory tests and outdoor deployments, with a few false positives. Future improvements could further lower the cost of our sensor below €10. PMID:24351634

Scaling future tropical cyclone damage with global mean temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Geiger, T.; Bresch, D.; Frieler, K.

2017-12-01

Tropical cyclones (TC) are one of the most damaging natural hazards and severely affectmany countries around the globe each year. Their nominal impact is projected to increasesubstantially as the exposed coastal population grows, per capita income increases, andanthropogenic climate change manifests. The magnitude of this increase, however, variesacross regions and is obscured by the stochastic behaviour of TCs, so far impeding arigorous quantification of trends in TC damage with global mean temperature (GMT) rise. Here, we build on the large sample of spatially explicit TCs simulations generated withinISIMIP(2b) for 1) pre-industrial conditions, 2) the historical period, and 3) future projectionsunder RCP2.6 and RCP6.0 to estimate future TC damage assuming fixed present-daysocio-economic conditions or SSP-based future projections of population patterns andincome. Damage estimates will be based on region-specific empirical damage modelsderived from reported damages and accounting for regional characteristics of vulnerability.Different combinations of 1) socio-economic drivers with pre-industrial climate or 2) changingclimate with fixed socio-economic conditions will be used to derive functional relationshipsbetween regionally aggregated changes in damages on one hand and global meantemperature and socio-economic predictors on the other hand. The obtained region-specific scaling of future TC damage with GMT provides valuable inputfor IPCC's special report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C by quantifying theincremental changes in impact with global warming. The approach allows for an update ofdamage functions used in integrated assessment models, and contributes to assessing theadequateness of climate mitigation and adaptation strategies.

Beyond scenario planning: projecting the future using models at Wind Cave National Park (USA)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

King, D. A.; Bachelet, D. M.; Symstad, A. J.

2011-12-01

Scenario planning has been used by the National Park Service as a tool for natural resource management planning in the face of climate change. Sets of plausible but divergent future scenarios are constructed from available information and expert opinion and serve as starting point to derive climate-smart management strategies. However, qualitative hypotheses about how systems would react to a particular set of conditions assumed from coarse scale climate projections may lack the scientific rigor expected from a federal agency. In an effort to better assess the range of likely futures at Wind Cave National Park, a project was conceived to 1) generate high resolution historic and future climate time series to identify local weather patterns that may or may not persist, 2) simulate the hydrological cycle in this geologically varied landscape and its response to future climate, 3) project vegetation dynamics and ensuing changes in the biogeochemical cycles given grazing and fire disturbances under new climate conditions, and 4) synthesize and compare results with those from the scenario planning exercise. In this framework, we tested a dynamic global vegetation model against local information on vegetation cover, disturbance history and stream flow to better understand the potential resilience of these ecosystems to climate change. We discuss the tradeoffs between a coarse scale application of the model showing regional trends with limited ability to project the fine scale mosaic of vegetation at Wind Cave, and a finer scale approach that can account for local slope effects on water balance and better assess the vulnerability of landscape facets, but requires more intensive data acquisition. We elaborate on the potential for sharing information between models to mitigate the often-limited treatment of biological feedbacks in the physical representations of soil and atmospheric processes.

Status of HiLASE project: High average power pulsed DPSSL systems for research and industry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mocek, T.; Divoky, M.; Smrz, M.; Sawicka, M.; Chyla, M.; Sikocinski, P.; Vohnikova, H.; Severova, P.; Lucianetti, A.; Novak, J.; Rus, B.

2013-11-01

We introduce the Czech national R&D project HiLASE which focuses on strategic development of advanced high-repetition rate, diode pumped solid state laser (DPSSL) systems that may find use in research, high-tech industry and in the future European large-scale facilities such as HiPER and ELI. Within HiLASE we explore two major concepts: thin-disk and cryogenically cooled multislab amplifiers capable of delivering average output powers above 1 kW level in picosecond-to-nanosecond pulsed regime. In particular, we have started a programme of technology development to demonstrate the scalability of multislab concept up to the kJ level at repetition rate of 1-10 Hz.

Introducing quality improvement methods into local public health departments: structured evaluation of a statewide pilot project.

PubMed

Riley, William; Parsons, Helen; McCoy, Kim; Burns, Debra; Anderson, Donna; Lee, Suhna; Sainfort, François

2009-10-01

To test the feasibility and assess the preliminary impact of a unique statewide quality improvement (QI) training program designed for public health departments. One hundred and ninety-five public health employees/managers from 38 local health departments throughout Minnesota were selected to participate in a newly developed QI training program and 65 of those engaged in and completed eight expert-supported QI projects over a period of 10 months from June 2007 through March 2008. As part of the Minnesota Quality Improvement Initiative, a structured distance education QI training program was designed and deployed in a first large-scale pilot. To evaluate the preliminary impact of the program, a mixed-method evaluation design was used based on four dimensions: learner reaction, knowledge, intention to apply, and preliminary outcomes. Subjective ratings of three dimensions of training quality were collected from participants after each of the scheduled learning sessions. Pre- and post-QI project surveys were administered to collect participant reactions, knowledge, future intention to apply learning, and perceived outcomes. Monthly and final QI project reports were collected to further inform success and preliminary outcomes of the projects. The participants reported (1) high levels of satisfaction with the training sessions, (2) increased perception of the relevance of the QI techniques, (3) increased perceived knowledge of all specific QI methods and techniques, (4) increased confidence in applying QI techniques on future projects, (5) increased intention to apply techniques on future QI projects, and (6) high perceived success of, and satisfaction with, the projects. Finally, preliminary outcomes data show moderate to large improvements in quality and/or efficiency for six out of eight projects. QI methods and techniques can be successfully implemented in local public health agencies on a statewide basis using the collaborative model through distance training and expert facilitation. This unique training can improve both core and support processes and lead to favorable staff reactions, increased knowledge, and improved health outcomes. The program can be further improved and deployed and holds great promise to facilitate the successful dissemination of proven QI methods throughout local public health departments.

Large-scale, high-performance and cloud-enabled multi-model analytics experiments in the context of the Earth System Grid Federation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fiore, S.; Płóciennik, M.; Doutriaux, C.; Blanquer, I.; Barbera, R.; Williams, D. N.; Anantharaj, V. G.; Evans, B. J. K.; Salomoni, D.; Aloisio, G.

2017-12-01

The increased models resolution in the development of comprehensive Earth System Models is rapidly leading to very large climate simulations output that pose significant scientific data management challenges in terms of data sharing, processing, analysis, visualization, preservation, curation, and archiving.Large scale global experiments for Climate Model Intercomparison Projects (CMIP) have led to the development of the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF), a federated data infrastructure which has been serving the CMIP5 experiment, providing access to 2PB of data for the IPCC Assessment Reports. In such a context, running a multi-model data analysis experiment is very challenging, as it requires the availability of a large amount of data related to multiple climate models simulations and scientific data management tools for large-scale data analytics. To address these challenges, a case study on climate models intercomparison data analysis has been defined and implemented in the context of the EU H2020 INDIGO-DataCloud project. The case study has been tested and validated on CMIP5 datasets, in the context of a large scale, international testbed involving several ESGF sites (LLNL, ORNL and CMCC), one orchestrator site (PSNC) and one more hosting INDIGO PaaS services (UPV). Additional ESGF sites, such as NCI (Australia) and a couple more in Europe, are also joining the testbed. The added value of the proposed solution is summarized in the following: it implements a server-side paradigm which limits data movement; it relies on a High-Performance Data Analytics (HPDA) stack to address performance; it exploits the INDIGO PaaS layer to support flexible, dynamic and automated deployment of software components; it provides user-friendly web access based on the INDIGO Future Gateway; and finally it integrates, complements and extends the support currently available through ESGF. Overall it provides a new "tool" for climate scientists to run multi-model experiments. At the time this contribution is being written, the proposed testbed represents the first implementation of a distributed large-scale, multi-model experiment in the ESGF/CMIP context, joining together server-side approaches for scientific data analysis, HPDA frameworks, end-to-end workflow management, and cloud computing.

Inquiry-Based Educational Design for Large-Scale High School Astronomy Projects Using Real Telescopes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fitzgerald, Michael; McKinnon, David H.; Danaia, Lena

2015-01-01

In this paper, we outline the theory behind the educational design used to implement a large-scale high school astronomy education project. This design was created in response to the realization of ineffective educational design in the initial early stages of the project. The new design follows an iterative improvement model where the materials…

Choice of baseline climate data impacts projected species' responses to climate change.

PubMed

Baker, David J; Hartley, Andrew J; Butchart, Stuart H M; Willis, Stephen G

2016-07-01

Climate data created from historic climate observations are integral to most assessments of potential climate change impacts, and frequently comprise the baseline period used to infer species-climate relationships. They are often also central to downscaling coarse resolution climate simulations from General Circulation Models (GCMs) to project future climate scenarios at ecologically relevant spatial scales. Uncertainty in these baseline data can be large, particularly where weather observations are sparse and climate dynamics are complex (e.g. over mountainous or coastal regions). Yet, importantly, this uncertainty is almost universally overlooked when assessing potential responses of species to climate change. Here, we assessed the importance of historic baseline climate uncertainty for projections of species' responses to future climate change. We built species distribution models (SDMs) for 895 African bird species of conservation concern, using six different climate baselines. We projected these models to two future periods (2040-2069, 2070-2099), using downscaled climate projections, and calculated species turnover and changes in species-specific climate suitability. We found that the choice of baseline climate data constituted an important source of uncertainty in projections of both species turnover and species-specific climate suitability, often comparable with, or more important than, uncertainty arising from the choice of GCM. Importantly, the relative contribution of these factors to projection uncertainty varied spatially. Moreover, when projecting SDMs to sites of biodiversity importance (Important Bird and Biodiversity Areas), these uncertainties altered site-level impacts, which could affect conservation prioritization. Our results highlight that projections of species' responses to climate change are sensitive to uncertainty in the baseline climatology. We recommend that this should be considered routinely in such analyses. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Projecting Global Decadal Change in Water Supply for Strategic Planning: Window Size Sensitivity in CMIP5 GCMs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luck, M.; Landis, M.; Gassert, F.; Luo, T.; Reig, P.

2013-12-01

Climate adaptation and strategic planning by states, corporations, and long-term investors require reliable information on the range of possible climatic changes. However, most decision makers are incapable of planning over the century-scale time horizons for which global climate models (GCMs) are developed. Even the most forward-looking actors rarely consider scenarios more than several decades into the future. The mismatch in model design and practical demands poses a challenge in extracting useful information on the decadal scale from global climate change models. Here, we explore options and limitations in generating decadal water supply change projections, as evaluated for the World Resources Institute's Aqueduct project's estimates of future change in water stress. Our approach uses an ensemble of six CMIP5 GCMs, selected to represent a broad lineage of models that best reproduce the mean and standard deviation of recent streamflow records in 18 large river basins, bias corrected to GLDAS-2.0 runoff. We examine sensitivity of point estimates of climate normal supply and water supply variability (interannual and seasonal) at the years 2020, 2030, and 2040, with a focus on using temporal windows of different lengths (11-, 21-, and 31-years) to generate the point estimates. With the aim of creating practical information for non-expert audiences, we will discuss the persistent question of 'how can we balance uncertainty and usability in designing scientific data products?'

Identifying Barriers and Pathways to Success for Renewable Energy Development on American Indian Lands

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Necefer, Len Edward; Jones, Thomas Elisha

American Indian tribes possess lands rich with renewable energy (RE) resources. Tribes have great potential and need to develop these resources, yet face a host of barriers that continue to impede development. Understanding these challenges as well as the pathways that can be taken to overcome them may facilitate more economic development to meet community needs and better position tribes to play a role in securing a low-carbon energy future for the United States. This paper presents the results of an expert elicitation of 24 tribal energy experts from federal, tribal, academic, and private industry backgrounds to identify barriers andmore » opportunities for federally recognized tribes in the lower 48 states. Experts identified a number of unique challenges facing tribes including financing and funding, infrastructure, tribal leadership and staff, state-level influence, and partnerships. Cultural factors were seen only to be of concern with large-scale development. Tribal sovereignty is a significant motivation for RE development and has yet to be fully realized. Cultural considerations are critical to the success of future projects; smaller residential and community-scale projects may be a better fit. Improving partnerships between tribes and the private sector can increase RE deployment and overcome historical distrust. States can have a double-ended influence on projects within tribal lands through taxation.« less

Climate change as a driver for future human migration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, M.; Ricke, K.; Caldeira, K.

2016-12-01

Human migration is driven by a multitude of factors, both socioeconomic and environmental. However, as impacts of anthropogenic climate change emerge and grow, it is widely conjectured that climate change will induce migration of human populations from areas that are adversely affected by climate change to areas that are less adversely or positively affected by climate change. Both low- and high-frequency climate changes have been empirically linked to migration in areas across the globe, but there has been little global-scale quantitative analysis projecting the scale and geography of climate-motivated migration. Considering temperature and precipitation in isolation from all other factors, here we project climate-driven impacts on the areal-density of human population. From this, we infer potential destinations and origins for the climate-motivated migration. Our results indicate that tropical and sub-tropical countries are the largest likely sources of migrants, with India being the country with the greatest number of potential climate emigrants. Global warming has the potential to motivate hundreds of millions of people to migrate in the coming decades, largely from warm tropical and subtropical countries to cooler temperate countries. Migration decisions will depend on many factors beyond climate; nevertheless our work establishes a foundation for quantifying future climate-motivated migration that can act as a starting point of more comprehensive assessments. The large number of potential climate migrants indicated by our analyses provides additional incentive to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, take adaptive measures, and carefully consider migration policy.

Coastal hazards in a changing world: projecting and communicating future coastal flood risk at the local-scale using the Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Neill, Andrea; Barnard, Patrick; Erikson, Li; Foxgrover, Amy; Limber, Patrick; Vitousek, Sean; Fitzgibbon, Michael; Wood, Nathan

2017-04-01

The risk of coastal flooding will increase for many low-lying coastal regions as predominant contributions to flooding, including sea level, storm surge, wave setup, and storm-related fluvial discharge, are altered with climate change. Community leaders and local governments therefore look to science to provide insight into how climate change may affect their areas. Many studies of future coastal flooding vulnerability consider sea level and tides, but ignore other important factors that elevate flood levels during storm events, such as waves, surge, and discharge. Here we present a modelling approach that considers a broad range of relevant processes contributing to elevated storm water levels for open coast and embayment settings along the U.S. West Coast. Additionally, we present online tools for communicating community-relevant projected vulnerabilities. The Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) is a numerical modeling system developed to predict coastal flooding due to both sea-level rise (SLR) and plausible 21st century storms for active-margin settings like the U.S. West Coast. CoSMoS applies a predominantly deterministic framework of multi-scale models encompassing large geographic scales (100s to 1000s of kilometers) to small-scale features (10s to 1000s of meters), resulting in flood extents that can be projected at a local resolution (2 meters). In the latest iteration of CoSMoS applied to Southern California, U.S., efforts were made to incorporate water level fluctuations in response to regional storm impacts, locally wind-generated waves, coastal river discharge, and decadal-scale shoreline and cliff changes. Coastal hazard projections are available in a user-friendly web-based tool (www.prbo.org/ocof), where users can view variations in flood extent, maximum flood depth, current speeds, and wave heights in response to a range of potential SLR and storm combinations, providing direct support to adaptation and management decisions. In order to capture the societal aspect of the hazard, projections are combined with socioeconomic exposure to produce clear, actionable information (https://www.usgs.gov/apps/hera/); this integrated approach to hazard displays provides an example of how to effectively translate complex climate impacts projections into simple, societally-relevant information.

The circuit architecture of whole brains at the mesoscopic scale.

PubMed

Mitra, Partha P

2014-09-17

Vertebrate brains of even moderate size are composed of astronomically large numbers of neurons and show a great degree of individual variability at the microscopic scale. This variation is presumably the result of phenotypic plasticity and individual experience. At a larger scale, however, relatively stable species-typical spatial patterns are observed in neuronal architecture, e.g., the spatial distributions of somata and axonal projection patterns, probably the result of a genetically encoded developmental program. The mesoscopic scale of analysis of brain architecture is the transitional point between a microscopic scale where individual variation is prominent and the macroscopic level where a stable, species-typical neural architecture is observed. The empirical existence of this scale, implicit in neuroanatomical atlases, combined with advances in computational resources, makes studying the circuit architecture of entire brains a practical task. A methodology has previously been proposed that employs a shotgun-like grid-based approach to systematically cover entire brain volumes with injections of neuronal tracers. This methodology is being employed to obtain mesoscale circuit maps in mouse and should be applicable to other vertebrate taxa. The resulting large data sets raise issues of data representation, analysis, and interpretation, which must be resolved. Even for data representation the challenges are nontrivial: the conventional approach using regional connectivity matrices fails to capture the collateral branching patterns of projection neurons. Future success of this promising research enterprise depends on the integration of previous neuroanatomical knowledge, partly through the development of suitable computational tools that encapsulate such expertise. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Projected future distribution of date palm and its potential use in alleviating micronutrient deficiency.

PubMed

Shabani, Farzin; Kumar, Lalit; Nojoumian, Amir Hadi; Esmaeili, Atefeh; Toghyani, Mehdi

2016-03-15

Micronutrient deficiency develops when nutrient intake does not match nutritional requirements for maintaining healthy tissue and organ functions which may have long-ranging effects on health, learning ability and productivity. Inadequacy of iron, zinc and vitamin A are the most important micronutrient deficiencies. Consumption of a 100 g portion of date flesh from date palm (Phoenix dactylifera L.) has been reported to meet approximately half the daily dietary recommended intake of these micronutrients. This study investigated the potential distribution of P. dactylifera under future climates to address its potential long-term use as a food commodity to tackle micronutrient deficiencies in some developing countries. Modelling outputs indicated large shifts in areas conducive to date palm cultivation, based on global-scale alteration over the next 60 years. Most of the regions suffering from micronutrient deficiencies were projected to become highly conducive for date palm cultivation. These results could inform strategic planning by government and agricultural organizations by identifying areas to cultivate this nutritionally important crop in the future to support the alleviation of micronutrient deficiencies. © 2015 Society of Chemical Industry.

An integrated model for assessing both crop productivity and agricultural water resources at a large scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Okada, M.; Sakurai, G.; Iizumi, T.; Yokozawa, M.

2012-12-01

Agricultural production utilizes regional resources (e.g. river water and ground water) as well as local resources (e.g. temperature, rainfall, solar energy). Future climate changes and increasing demand due to population increases and economic developments would intensively affect the availability of water resources for agricultural production. While many studies assessed the impacts of climate change on agriculture, there are few studies that dynamically account for changes in water resources and crop production. This study proposes an integrated model for assessing both crop productivity and agricultural water resources at a large scale. Also, the irrigation management to subseasonal variability in weather and crop response varies for each region and each crop. To deal with such variations, we used the Markov Chain Monte Carlo technique to quantify regional-specific parameters associated with crop growth and irrigation water estimations. We coupled a large-scale crop model (Sakurai et al. 2012), with a global water resources model, H08 (Hanasaki et al. 2008). The integrated model was consisting of five sub-models for the following processes: land surface, crop growth, river routing, reservoir operation, and anthropogenic water withdrawal. The land surface sub-model was based on a watershed hydrology model, SWAT (Neitsch et al. 2009). Surface and subsurface runoffs simulated by the land surface sub-model were input to the river routing sub-model of the H08 model. A part of regional water resources available for agriculture, simulated by the H08 model, was input as irrigation water to the land surface sub-model. The timing and amount of irrigation water was simulated at a daily step. The integrated model reproduced the observed streamflow in an individual watershed. Additionally, the model accurately reproduced the trends and interannual variations of crop yields. To demonstrate the usefulness of the integrated model, we compared two types of impact assessment of climate change on crop productivity in a watershed. The first was carried out by the large-scale crop model alone. The second was carried out by the integrated model of the large-scale crop model and the H08 model. The former projected that changes in temperature and precipitation due to future climate change would give rise to increasing the water stress in crops. Nevertheless, the latter projected that the increasing amount of agricultural water resources in the watershed would supply sufficient amount of water for irrigation, consequently reduce the water stress. The integrated model demonstrated the importance of taking into account the water circulation in watershed when predicting the regional crop production.

Climate change adaptation and Integrated Water Resource Management in the water sector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ludwig, Fulco; van Slobbe, Erik; Cofino, Wim

2014-10-01

Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) was introduced in 1980s to better optimise water uses between different water demanding sectors. However, since it was introduced water systems have become more complicated due to changes in the global water cycle as a result of climate change. The realization that climate change will have a significant impact on water availability and flood risks has driven research and policy making on adaptation. This paper discusses the main similarities and differences between climate change adaptation and IWRM. The main difference between the two is the focus on current and historic issues of IWRM compared to the (long-term) future focus of adaptation. One of the main problems of implementing climate change adaptation is the large uncertainties in future projections. Two completely different approaches to adaptation have been developed in response to these large uncertainties. A top-down approach based on large scale biophysical impacts analyses focussing on quantifying and minimizing uncertainty by using a large range of scenarios and different climate and impact models. The main problem with this approach is the propagation of uncertainties within the modelling chain. The opposite is the bottom up approach which basically ignores uncertainty. It focusses on reducing vulnerabilities, often at local scale, by developing resilient water systems. Both these approaches however are unsuitable for integrating into water management. The bottom up approach focuses too much on socio-economic vulnerability and too little on developing (technical) solutions. The top-down approach often results in an “explosion” of uncertainty and therefore complicates decision making. A more promising direction of adaptation would be a risk based approach. Future research should further develop and test an approach which starts with developing adaptation strategies based on current and future risks. These strategies should then be evaluated using a range of future scenarios in order to develop robust adaptation measures and strategies.

Population signatures of large-scale, long-term disjunction and small-scale, short-term habitat fragmentation in an Afromontane forest bird

PubMed Central

Habel, J C; Mulwa, R K; Gassert, F; Rödder, D; Ulrich, W; Borghesio, L; Husemann, M; Lens, L

2014-01-01

The Eastern Afromontane cloud forests occur as geographically distinct mountain exclaves. The conditions of these forests range from large to small and from fairly intact to strongly degraded. For this study, we sampled individuals of the forest bird species, the Montane White-eye Zosterops poliogaster from 16 sites and four mountain archipelagos. We analysed 12 polymorphic microsatellites and three phenotypic traits, and calculated Species Distribution Models (SDMs) to project past distributions and predict potential future range shifts under a scenario of climate warming. We found well-supported genetic and morphologic clusters corresponding to the mountain ranges where populations were sampled, with 43% of all alleles being restricted to single mountains. Our data suggest that large-scale and long-term geographic isolation on mountain islands caused genetically and morphologically distinct population clusters in Z. poliogaster. However, major genetic and biometric splits were not correlated to the geographic distances among populations. This heterogeneous pattern can be explained by past climatic shifts, as highlighted by our SDM projections. Anthropogenically fragmented populations showed lower genetic diversity and a lower mean body mass, possibly in response to suboptimal habitat conditions. On the basis of these findings and the results from our SDM analysis we predict further loss of genotypic and phenotypic uniqueness in the wake of climate change, due to the contraction of the species' climatic niche and subsequent decline in population size. PMID:24713824

Population signatures of large-scale, long-term disjunction and small-scale, short-term habitat fragmentation in an Afromontane forest bird.

PubMed

Habel, J C; Mulwa, R K; Gassert, F; Rödder, D; Ulrich, W; Borghesio, L; Husemann, M; Lens, L

2014-09-01

The Eastern Afromontane cloud forests occur as geographically distinct mountain exclaves. The conditions of these forests range from large to small and from fairly intact to strongly degraded. For this study, we sampled individuals of the forest bird species, the Montane White-eye Zosterops poliogaster from 16 sites and four mountain archipelagos. We analysed 12 polymorphic microsatellites and three phenotypic traits, and calculated Species Distribution Models (SDMs) to project past distributions and predict potential future range shifts under a scenario of climate warming. We found well-supported genetic and morphologic clusters corresponding to the mountain ranges where populations were sampled, with 43% of all alleles being restricted to single mountains. Our data suggest that large-scale and long-term geographic isolation on mountain islands caused genetically and morphologically distinct population clusters in Z. poliogaster. However, major genetic and biometric splits were not correlated to the geographic distances among populations. This heterogeneous pattern can be explained by past climatic shifts, as highlighted by our SDM projections. Anthropogenically fragmented populations showed lower genetic diversity and a lower mean body mass, possibly in response to suboptimal habitat conditions. On the basis of these findings and the results from our SDM analysis we predict further loss of genotypic and phenotypic uniqueness in the wake of climate change, due to the contraction of the species' climatic niche and subsequent decline in population size.

Large-scale tropospheric transport in the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Orbe, Clara; Yang, Huang; Waugh, Darryn W.; Zeng, Guang; Morgenstern, Olaf; Kinnison, Douglas E.; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Tilmes, Simone; Plummer, David A.; Scinocca, John F.; Josse, Beatrice; Marecal, Virginie; Jöckel, Patrick; Oman, Luke D.; Strahan, Susan E.; Deushi, Makoto; Tanaka, Taichu Y.; Yoshida, Kohei; Akiyoshi, Hideharu; Yamashita, Yousuke; Stenke, Andreas; Revell, Laura; Sukhodolov, Timofei; Rozanov, Eugene; Pitari, Giovanni; Visioni, Daniele; Stone, Kane A.; Schofield, Robyn; Banerjee, Antara

2018-05-01

Understanding and modeling the large-scale transport of trace gases and aerosols is important for interpreting past (and projecting future) changes in atmospheric composition. Here we show that there are large differences in the global-scale atmospheric transport properties among the models participating in the IGAC SPARC Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI). Specifically, we find up to 40 % differences in the transport timescales connecting the Northern Hemisphere (NH) midlatitude surface to the Arctic and to Southern Hemisphere high latitudes, where the mean age ranges between 1.7 and 2.6 years. We show that these differences are related to large differences in vertical transport among the simulations, in particular to differences in parameterized convection over the oceans. While stronger convection over NH midlatitudes is associated with slower transport to the Arctic, stronger convection in the tropics and subtropics is associated with faster interhemispheric transport. We also show that the differences among simulations constrained with fields derived from the same reanalysis products are as large as (and in some cases larger than) the differences among free-running simulations, most likely due to larger differences in parameterized convection. Our results indicate that care must be taken when using simulations constrained with analyzed winds to interpret the influence of meteorology on tropospheric composition.

Evaluation of Future Internet Technologies for Processing and Distribution of Satellite Imagery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Becedas, J.; Perez, R.; Gonzalez, G.; Alvarez, J.; Garcia, F.; Maldonado, F.; Sucari, A.; Garcia, J.

2015-04-01

Satellite imagery data centres are designed to operate a defined number of satellites. For instance, difficulties when new satellites have to be incorporated in the system appear. This occurs because traditional infrastructures are neither flexible nor scalable. With the appearance of Future Internet technologies new solutions can be provided to manage large and variable amounts of data on demand. These technologies optimize resources and facilitate the appearance of new applications and services in the traditional Earth Observation (EO) market. The use of Future Internet technologies for the EO sector were validated with the GEO-Cloud experiment, part of the Fed4FIRE FP7 European project. This work presents the final results of the project, in which a constellation of satellites records the whole Earth surface on a daily basis. The satellite imagery is downloaded into a distributed network of ground stations and ingested in a cloud infrastructure, where the data is processed, stored, archived and distributed to the end users. The processing and transfer times inside the cloud, workload of the processors, automatic cataloguing and accessibility through the Internet are evaluated to validate if Future Internet technologies present advantages over traditional methods. Applicability of these technologies is evaluated to provide high added value services. Finally, the advantages of using federated testbeds to carry out large scale, industry driven experiments are analysed evaluating the feasibility of an experiment developed in the European infrastructure Fed4FIRE and its migration to a commercial cloud: SoftLayer, an IBM Company.

Trend analysis of watershed-scale precipitation over Northern California by means of dynamically-downscaled CMIP5 future climate projections.

PubMed

Ishida, K; Gorguner, M; Ercan, A; Trinh, T; Kavvas, M L

2017-08-15

The impacts of climate change on watershed-scale precipitation through the 21st century were investigated over eight study watersheds in Northern California based on dynamically downscaled CMIP5 future climate projections from three GCMs (CCSM4, HadGEM2-ES, and MIROC5) under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 future climate scenarios. After evaluating the modeling capability of the WRF model, the six future climate projections were dynamically downscaled by means of the WRF model over Northern California at 9km grid resolution and hourly temporal resolution during a 94-year period (2006-2100). The biases in the model simulations were corrected, and basin-average precipitation over the eight study watersheds was calculated from the dynamically downscaled precipitation data. Based on the dynamically downscaled basin-average precipitation, trends in annual depth and annual peaks of basin-average precipitation during the 21st century were analyzed over the eight study watersheds. The analyses in this study indicate that there may be differences between trends of annual depths and annual peaks of watershed-scale precipitation during the 21st century. Furthermore, trends in watershed-scale precipitation under future climate conditions may be different for different watersheds depending on their location and topography even if they are in the same region. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Community-based efforts to prevent obesity: Australia-wide survey of projects.

PubMed

Nichols, Melanie S; Reynolds, Rebecca C; Waters, Elizabeth; Gill, Timothy; King, Lesley; Swinburn, Boyd A; Allender, Steven

2013-08-01

Community-based programs that affect healthy environments and policies have emerged as an effective response to high obesity levels in populations. Apart from limited individual reports, little is currently known about these programs, limiting the potential to provide effective support, to promote effective practice, prevent adverse outcomes and disseminate intervention results and experience. The aim of the present study was to identify the size and reach of current community-based obesity prevention projects in Australia and to examine their characteristics, program features (e.g. intervention setting), capacity and approach to obesity prevention. Detailed survey completed by representatives from community-based obesity prevention initiatives in Australia. There was wide variation in funding, capacity and approach to obesity prevention among the 78 participating projects. Median annual funding was Au$94900 (range Au$2500-$4.46 million). The most common intervention settings were schools (39%). Forty per cent of programs focused on a population group of ≥50000 people. A large proportion of respondents felt that they did not have sufficient resources or staff training to achieve project objectives. Community-based projects currently represent a very large investment by both government and non-government sectors for the prevention of obesity. Existing projects are diverse in size and scope, and reach large segments of the population. Further work is needed to identify the full extent of existing community actions and to monitor their reach and future 'scale up' to ensure that future activities aim for effective integration into systems, policies and environments. SO WHAT? Community-based programs make a substantial contribution to the prevention of obesity and promotion of healthy lifestyles in Australia. A risk of the current intervention landscape is that effective approaches may go unrecognised due to lack of effective evaluations or limitations in program design, duration or size. Policy makers and researchers must recognise the potential contribution of these initiatives, to both public health and knowledge generation, and provide support for strong evaluation and sustainable intervention designs.

Large-scale educational telecommunications systems for the US: An analysis of educational needs and technological opportunities

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morgan, R. P.; Singh, J. P.; Rothenberg, D.; Robinson, B. E.

1975-01-01

The needs to be served, the subsectors in which the system might be used, the technology employed, and the prospects for future utilization of an educational telecommunications delivery system are described and analyzed. Educational subsectors are analyzed with emphasis on the current status and trends within each subsector. Issues which affect future development, and prospects for future use of media, technology, and large-scale electronic delivery within each subsector are included. Information on technology utilization is presented. Educational telecommunications services are identified and grouped into categories: public television and radio, instructional television, computer aided instruction, computer resource sharing, and information resource sharing. Technology based services, their current utilization, and factors which affect future development are stressed. The role of communications satellites in providing these services is discussed. Efforts to analyze and estimate future utilization of large-scale educational telecommunications are summarized. Factors which affect future utilization are identified. Conclusions are presented.

Innovative space x-ray telescopes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hudec, R.; Inneman, A.; Pina, L.; Sveda, L.; Ticha, H.; Brozek, V.

2017-11-01

We report on the progress in innovative X-ray mirror development with focus on requirements of future X-ray astronomy space projects. Various future projects in X-ray astronomy and astrophysics will require large lightweight but highly accurate segments with multiple thin shells or foils. The large Wolter 1 grazing incidence multiple mirror arrays, the Kirkpatrick-Baez modules, as well as the large Lobster-Eye X-ray telescope modules in Schmidt arrangement may serve as examples. All these space projects will require high quality and light segmented shells (shaped, bent or flat foils) with high X-ray reflectivity and excellent mechanical stability.

Public-Private Partnerships in Cloud-Computing Services in the Context of Genomic Research.

PubMed

Granados Moreno, Palmira; Joly, Yann; Knoppers, Bartha Maria

2017-01-01

Public-private partnerships (PPPs) have been increasingly used to spur and facilitate innovation in a number of fields. In healthcare, the purpose of using a PPP is commonly to develop and/or provide vaccines and drugs against communicable diseases, mainly in developing or underdeveloped countries. With the advancement of technology and of the area of genomics, these partnerships also focus on large-scale genomic research projects that aim to advance the understanding of diseases that have a genetic component and to develop personalized treatments. This new focus has created new forms of PPPs that involve information technology companies, which provide computing infrastructure and services to store, analyze, and share the massive amounts of data genomic-related projects produce. In this article, we explore models of PPPs proposed to handle, protect, and share the genomic data collected and to further develop genomic-based medical products. We also identify the reasons that make these models suitable and the challenges they have yet to overcome. To achieve this, we describe the details and complexities of MSSNG, International Cancer Genome Consortium, and 100,000 Genomes Project, the three PPPs that focus on large-scale genomic research to better understand the genetic components of autism, cancer, rare diseases, and infectious diseases with the intention to find appropriate treatments. Organized as PPP and employing cloud-computing services, the three projects have advanced quickly and are likely to be important sources of research and development for future personalized medicine. However, there still are unresolved matters relating to conflicts of interest, commercialization, and data control. Learning from the challenges encountered by past PPPs allowed us to establish that developing guidelines to adequately manage personal health information stored in clouds and ensuring the protection of data integrity and privacy would be critical steps in the development of future PPPs.

Public–Private Partnerships in Cloud-Computing Services in the Context of Genomic Research

PubMed Central

Granados Moreno, Palmira; Joly, Yann; Knoppers, Bartha Maria

2017-01-01

Public–private partnerships (PPPs) have been increasingly used to spur and facilitate innovation in a number of fields. In healthcare, the purpose of using a PPP is commonly to develop and/or provide vaccines and drugs against communicable diseases, mainly in developing or underdeveloped countries. With the advancement of technology and of the area of genomics, these partnerships also focus on large-scale genomic research projects that aim to advance the understanding of diseases that have a genetic component and to develop personalized treatments. This new focus has created new forms of PPPs that involve information technology companies, which provide computing infrastructure and services to store, analyze, and share the massive amounts of data genomic-related projects produce. In this article, we explore models of PPPs proposed to handle, protect, and share the genomic data collected and to further develop genomic-based medical products. We also identify the reasons that make these models suitable and the challenges they have yet to overcome. To achieve this, we describe the details and complexities of MSSNG, International Cancer Genome Consortium, and 100,000 Genomes Project, the three PPPs that focus on large-scale genomic research to better understand the genetic components of autism, cancer, rare diseases, and infectious diseases with the intention to find appropriate treatments. Organized as PPP and employing cloud-computing services, the three projects have advanced quickly and are likely to be important sources of research and development for future personalized medicine. However, there still are unresolved matters relating to conflicts of interest, commercialization, and data control. Learning from the challenges encountered by past PPPs allowed us to establish that developing guidelines to adequately manage personal health information stored in clouds and ensuring the protection of data integrity and privacy would be critical steps in the development of future PPPs. PMID:28164085

Intercomparison Project on Parameterizations of Large-Scale Dynamics for Simulations of Tropical Convection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sobel, A. H.; Wang, S.; Bellon, G.; Sessions, S. L.; Woolnough, S.

2013-12-01

Parameterizations of large-scale dynamics have been developed in the past decade for studying the interaction between tropical convection and large-scale dynamics, based on our physical understanding of the tropical atmosphere. A principal advantage of these methods is that they offer a pathway to attack the key question of what controls large-scale variations of tropical deep convection. These methods have been used with both single column models (SCMs) and cloud-resolving models (CRMs) to study the interaction of deep convection with several kinds of environmental forcings. While much has been learned from these efforts, different groups' efforts are somewhat hard to compare. Different models, different versions of the large-scale parameterization methods, and experimental designs that differ in other ways are used. It is not obvious which choices are consequential to the scientific conclusions drawn and which are not. The methods have matured to the point that there is value in an intercomparison project. In this context, the Global Atmospheric Systems Study - Weak Temperature Gradient (GASS-WTG) project was proposed at the Pan-GASS meeting in September 2012. The weak temperature gradient approximation is one method to parameterize large-scale dynamics, and is used in the project name for historical reasons and simplicity, but another method, the damped gravity wave (DGW) method, will also be used in the project. The goal of the GASS-WTG project is to develop community understanding of the parameterization methods currently in use. Their strengths, weaknesses, and functionality in models with different physics and numerics will be explored in detail, and their utility to improve our understanding of tropical weather and climate phenomena will be further evaluated. This presentation will introduce the intercomparison project, including background, goals, and overview of the proposed experimental design. Interested groups will be invited to join (it will not be too late), and preliminary results will be presented.

Changing Permafrost in the Arctic and its Global Effects in the 21st Century (PAGE21): A very large international and integrated project to measure the impact of permafrost degradation on the climate system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lantuit, Hugues; Boike, Julia; Dahms, Melanie; Hubberten, Hans-Wolfgang

2013-04-01

The northern permafrost region contains approximately 50% of the estimated global below-ground organic carbon pool and more than twice as much as is contained in the current atmos-pheric carbon pool. The sheer size of this carbon pool, together with the large amplitude of predicted arctic climate change im-plies that there is a high potential for global-scale feedbacks from arctic climate change if these carbon reservoirs are desta-bilized. Nonetheless, significant gaps exist in our current state of knowledge that prevent us from producing accurate assess-ments of the vulnerability of the arctic permafrost to climate change, or of the implications of future climate change for global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Specifically: • Our understanding of the physical and biogeochemical processes at play in permafrost areas is still insuffi-cient in some key aspects • Size estimates for the high latitude continental carbon and nitrogen stocks vary widely between regions and research groups. • The representation of permafrost-related processes in global climate models still tends to be rudimentary, and is one reason for the frequently poor perform-ances of climate models at high latitudes. The key objectives of PAGE21 are: • to improve our understanding of the processes affect-ing the size of the arctic permafrost carbon and nitro-gen pools through detailed field studies and monitor-ing, in order to quantify their size and their vulnerability to climate change, • to produce, assemble and assess high-quality datasets in order to develop and evaluate representations of permafrost and related processes in global models, • to improve these models accordingly, • to use these models to reduce the uncertainties in feed-backs from arctic permafrost to global change, thereby providing the means to assess the feasibility of stabili-zation scenarios, and • to ensure widespread dissemination of our results in order to provide direct input into the ongoing debate on climate-change mitigation. The concept of PAGE21 is to directly address these questions through a close interaction between monitoring activities, proc-ess studies and modeling on the pertinent temporal and spatial scales. Field sites have been selected to cover a wide range of environmental conditions for the validation of large scale mod-els, the development of permafrost monitoring capabilities, the study of permafrost processes, and for overlap with existing monitoring programs. PAGE21 will contribute to upgrading the project sites with the objective of providing a measurement baseline, both for process studies and for modeling programs. PAGE21 is determined to break down the traditional barriers in permafrost sciences between observational and model-supported site studies and large-scale climate modeling. Our concept for the interaction between site-scale studies and large-scale modeling is to establish and maintain a direct link be-tween these two areas for developing and evaluating, on all spatial scales, the land-surface modules of leading European global climate models taking part in the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), designed to inform the IPCC process. The timing of this project is such that the main scientific results from PAGE21, and in particular the model-based assessments will build entirely on new outputs and results from the CMIP5 Climate Model Intercomparison Project designed to inform the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report. However, PAGE21 is designed to leave a legacy that will en-dure beyond the lifetime of the projections that it produces. This legacy will comprise • an improved understanding of the key processes and parameters that determine the vulnerability of arctic permafrost to climate change, • the production of a suite of major European coupled climate models including detailed and validated repre-sentations of permafrost-related processes, that will reduce uncertainties in future climate projections pro-duced well beyond the lifetime of PAGE21, and • the training of a new generation of permafrost scien-tists who will bridge the long-standing gap between permafrost field science and global climate modeling, for the long-term benefit of science and society.

7 CFR 1710.300 - General.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... forecast. The forecast should be used by the board of directors and the manager to guide the system towards... projected results of future actions planned by the borrower's board of directors; (2) The financial goals... type of large power loads, projections of future borrowings and the associated interest, projected...

7 CFR 1710.300 - General.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... forecast. The forecast should be used by the board of directors and the manager to guide the system towards... projected results of future actions planned by the borrower's board of directors; (2) The financial goals... type of large power loads, projections of future borrowings and the associated interest, projected...

Mid-21st century air quality at the urban scale under the influence of changed climate and emissions - case studies for Paris and Stockholm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Markakis, Konstantinos; Valari, Myrto; Engardt, Magnuz; Lacressonniere, Gwendoline; Vautard, Robert; Andersson, Camilla

2016-02-01

Ozone, PM10 and PM2.5 concentrations over Paris, France and Stockholm, Sweden were modelled at 4 and 1 km horizontal resolutions respectively for the present and 2050 periods employing decade-long simulations. We account for large-scale global climate change (RCP-4.5) and fine-resolution bottom-up emission projections developed by local experts and quantify their impact on future pollutant concentrations. Moreover, we identify biases related to the implementation of regional-scale emission projections by comparing modelled pollutant concentrations between the fine- and coarse-scale simulations over the study areas. We show that over urban areas with major regional contribution (e.g. the city of Stockholm) the bias related to coarse-scale projections may be significant and lead to policy misclassification. Our results stress the need to better understand the mechanism of bias propagation across the modelling scales in order to design more successful local-scale strategies. We find that the impact of climate change is spatially homogeneous in both regions, implying strong regional influence. The climate benefit for ozone (daily mean and maximum) is up to -5 % for Paris and -2 % for Stockholm city. The climate benefit on PM2.5 and PM10 in Paris is between -5 and -10 %, while for Stockholm we estimate mixed trends of up to 3 % depending on season and size class. In Stockholm, emission mitigation leads to concentration reductions up to 15 % for daily mean and maximum ozone and 20 % for PM. Through a sensitivity analysis we show that this response is entirely due to changes in emissions at the regional scale. On the contrary, over the city of Paris (VOC-limited photochemical regime), local mitigation of NOx emissions increases future ozone concentrations due to ozone titration inhibition. This competing trend between the respective roles of emission and climate change, results in an increase in 2050 daily mean ozone by 2.5 % in Paris. Climate and not emission change appears to be the most influential factor for maximum ozone concentration over the city of Paris, which may be particularly interesting from a health impact perspective.

Multimode resource-constrained multiple project scheduling problem under fuzzy random environment and its application to a large scale hydropower construction project.

PubMed

Xu, Jiuping; Feng, Cuiying

2014-01-01

This paper presents an extension of the multimode resource-constrained project scheduling problem for a large scale construction project where multiple parallel projects and a fuzzy random environment are considered. By taking into account the most typical goals in project management, a cost/weighted makespan/quality trade-off optimization model is constructed. To deal with the uncertainties, a hybrid crisp approach is used to transform the fuzzy random parameters into fuzzy variables that are subsequently defuzzified using an expected value operator with an optimistic-pessimistic index. Then a combinatorial-priority-based hybrid particle swarm optimization algorithm is developed to solve the proposed model, where the combinatorial particle swarm optimization and priority-based particle swarm optimization are designed to assign modes to activities and to schedule activities, respectively. Finally, the results and analysis of a practical example at a large scale hydropower construction project are presented to demonstrate the practicality and efficiency of the proposed model and optimization method.

Multimode Resource-Constrained Multiple Project Scheduling Problem under Fuzzy Random Environment and Its Application to a Large Scale Hydropower Construction Project

PubMed Central

Xu, Jiuping

2014-01-01

This paper presents an extension of the multimode resource-constrained project scheduling problem for a large scale construction project where multiple parallel projects and a fuzzy random environment are considered. By taking into account the most typical goals in project management, a cost/weighted makespan/quality trade-off optimization model is constructed. To deal with the uncertainties, a hybrid crisp approach is used to transform the fuzzy random parameters into fuzzy variables that are subsequently defuzzified using an expected value operator with an optimistic-pessimistic index. Then a combinatorial-priority-based hybrid particle swarm optimization algorithm is developed to solve the proposed model, where the combinatorial particle swarm optimization and priority-based particle swarm optimization are designed to assign modes to activities and to schedule activities, respectively. Finally, the results and analysis of a practical example at a large scale hydropower construction project are presented to demonstrate the practicality and efficiency of the proposed model and optimization method. PMID:24550708

The Space-Time Conservative Schemes for Large-Scale, Time-Accurate Flow Simulations with Tetrahedral Meshes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Venkatachari, Balaji Shankar; Streett, Craig L.; Chang, Chau-Lyan; Friedlander, David J.; Wang, Xiao-Yen; Chang, Sin-Chung

2016-01-01

Despite decades of development of unstructured mesh methods, high-fidelity time-accurate simulations are still predominantly carried out on structured, or unstructured hexahedral meshes by using high-order finite-difference, weighted essentially non-oscillatory (WENO), or hybrid schemes formed by their combinations. In this work, the space-time conservation element solution element (CESE) method is used to simulate several flow problems including supersonic jet/shock interaction and its impact on launch vehicle acoustics, and direct numerical simulations of turbulent flows using tetrahedral meshes. This paper provides a status report for the continuing development of the space-time conservation element solution element (CESE) numerical and software framework under the Revolutionary Computational Aerosciences (RCA) project. Solution accuracy and large-scale parallel performance of the numerical framework is assessed with the goal of providing a viable paradigm for future high-fidelity flow physics simulations.

Molecular clouds and the large-scale structure of the galaxy

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thaddeus, Patrick; Stacy, J. Gregory

1990-01-01

The application of molecular radio astronomy to the study of the large-scale structure of the Galaxy is reviewed and the distribution and characteristic properties of the Galactic population of Giant Molecular Clouds (GMCs), derived primarily from analysis of the Columbia CO survey, and their relation to tracers of Population 1 and major spiral features are described. The properties of the local molecular interstellar gas are summarized. The CO observing programs currently underway with the Center for Astrophysics 1.2 m radio telescope are described, with an emphasis on projects relevant to future comparison with high-energy gamma-ray observations. Several areas are discussed in which high-energy gamma-ray observations by the EGRET (Energetic Gamma-Ray Experiment Telescope) experiment aboard the Gamma Ray Observatory will directly complement radio studies of the Milky Way, with the prospect of significant progress on fundamental issues related to the structure and content of the Galaxy.

Who Really Wants an Ambitious Large-Scale Restoration of the Seine Estuary? A Strategic Analysis of a Science-Policy Interface Locked in a Stalemate.

PubMed

Coreau, Audrey; Narcy, Jean-Baptiste; Lumbroso, Sarah

2018-05-01

The development of ecosystem knowledge is an essential condition for effective environmental management but using available knowledge to solve environmental controversies is still difficult in "real" situations. This paper explores the conditions under which ecological knowledge could contribute to the environmental strategies and actions of stakeholders at science-policy interface. Ecological restoration of the Seine estuary is an example of an environmental issue whose overall management has run into difficulties despite the production of a large amount of knowledge by a dedicated organization, GIP Seine Aval. Thanks to an action-research project, based on a futures study, we analyze the reasons of these difficulties and help the GIP Seine Aval adopt a robust strategy to overcome them. According to our results, most local stakeholders involved in the large-scale restoration project emphasize the need for a clear divide between knowledge production and environmental action. This kind of divide may be strategic in a context where the robustness of environmental decisions is strongly depending on the mobilization of "neutral" scientific knowledge. But in our case study, this rather blocks action because some powerful stakeholders continuously ask for more knowledge before taking action. The construction and analysis of possible future scenarios has led to three alternative strategies being identified to counter this stalemate situation: (1) to circumvent difficulties by creating indirect links between knowledge and actions; (2) to use knowledge to sustain advocacy for the interests of each and every stakeholder; (3) to involve citizens in decisions about knowledge production and use, so that environmental issues weight more on the local political agenda.

Harvesting interacts with climate change to affect future habitat quality of a focal species in eastern Canada’s boreal forest

PubMed Central

Boulanger, Yan; Cyr, Dominic; Taylor, Anthony R.; Price, David T.; St-Laurent, Martin-Hugues

2018-01-01

Many studies project future bird ranges by relying on correlative species distribution models. Such models do not usually represent important processes explicitly related to climate change and harvesting, which limits their potential for predicting and understanding the future of boreal bird assemblages at the landscape scale. In this study, we attempted to assess the cumulative and specific impacts of both harvesting and climate-induced changes on wildfires and stand-level processes (e.g., reproduction, growth) in the boreal forest of eastern Canada. The projected changes in these landscape- and stand-scale processes (referred to as “drivers of change”) were then assessed for their impacts on future habitats and potential productivity of black-backed woodpecker (BBWO; Picoides arcticus), a focal species representative of deadwood and old-growth biodiversity in eastern Canada. Forest attributes were simulated using a forest landscape model, LANDIS-II, and were used to infer future landscape suitability to BBWO under three anthropogenic climate forcing scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5), compared to the historical baseline. We found climate change is likely to be detrimental for BBWO, with up to 92% decline in potential productivity under the worst-case climate forcing scenario (RCP 8.5). However, large declines were also projected under baseline climate, underlining the importance of harvest in determining future BBWO productivity. Present-day harvesting practices were the single most important cause of declining areas of old-growth coniferous forest, and hence appeared as the single most important driver of future BBWO productivity, regardless of the climate scenario. Climate-induced increases in fire activity would further promote young, deciduous stands at the expense of old-growth coniferous stands. This suggests that the biodiversity associated with deadwood and old-growth boreal forests may be greatly altered by the cumulative impacts of natural and anthropogenic disturbances under a changing climate. Management adaptations, including reduced harvesting levels and strategies to promote coniferous species content, may help mitigate these cumulative impacts. PMID:29414989

Harvesting interacts with climate change to affect future habitat quality of a focal species in eastern Canada's boreal forest.

PubMed

Tremblay, Junior A; Boulanger, Yan; Cyr, Dominic; Taylor, Anthony R; Price, David T; St-Laurent, Martin-Hugues

2018-01-01

Many studies project future bird ranges by relying on correlative species distribution models. Such models do not usually represent important processes explicitly related to climate change and harvesting, which limits their potential for predicting and understanding the future of boreal bird assemblages at the landscape scale. In this study, we attempted to assess the cumulative and specific impacts of both harvesting and climate-induced changes on wildfires and stand-level processes (e.g., reproduction, growth) in the boreal forest of eastern Canada. The projected changes in these landscape- and stand-scale processes (referred to as "drivers of change") were then assessed for their impacts on future habitats and potential productivity of black-backed woodpecker (BBWO; Picoides arcticus), a focal species representative of deadwood and old-growth biodiversity in eastern Canada. Forest attributes were simulated using a forest landscape model, LANDIS-II, and were used to infer future landscape suitability to BBWO under three anthropogenic climate forcing scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5), compared to the historical baseline. We found climate change is likely to be detrimental for BBWO, with up to 92% decline in potential productivity under the worst-case climate forcing scenario (RCP 8.5). However, large declines were also projected under baseline climate, underlining the importance of harvest in determining future BBWO productivity. Present-day harvesting practices were the single most important cause of declining areas of old-growth coniferous forest, and hence appeared as the single most important driver of future BBWO productivity, regardless of the climate scenario. Climate-induced increases in fire activity would further promote young, deciduous stands at the expense of old-growth coniferous stands. This suggests that the biodiversity associated with deadwood and old-growth boreal forests may be greatly altered by the cumulative impacts of natural and anthropogenic disturbances under a changing climate. Management adaptations, including reduced harvesting levels and strategies to promote coniferous species content, may help mitigate these cumulative impacts.

The Use of Statistical Downscaling to Project Regional Climate Changes as they Relate to Future Energy Production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Werth, D. W.; O'Steen, L.; Chen, K.; Altinakar, M. S.; Garrett, A.; Aleman, S.; Ramalingam, V.

2010-12-01

Global climate change has the potential for profound impacts on society, and poses significant challenges to government and industry in the areas of energy security and sustainability. Given that the ability to exploit energy resources often depends on the climate, the possibility of climate change means we cannot simply assume that the untapped potential of today will still exist in the future. Predictions of future climate are generally based on global climate models (GCMs) which, due to computational limitations, are run at spatial resolutions of hundreds of kilometers. While the results from these models can predict climatic trends averaged over large spatial and temporal scales, their ability to describe the effects of atmospheric phenomena that affect weather on regional to local scales is inadequate. We propose the use of several optimized statistical downscaling techniques that can infer climate change at the local scale from coarse resolution GCM predictions, and apply the results to assess future sustainability for two sources of energy production dependent on adequate water resources: nuclear power (through the dissipation of waste heat from cooling towers, ponds, etc.) and hydroelectric power. All methods will be trained with 20th century data, and applied to data from the years 2040-2049 to get the local-scale changes. Models of cooling tower operation and hydropower potential will then use the downscaled data to predict the possible changes in energy production, and the implications of climate change on plant siting, design, and contribution to the future energy grid can then be examined.

Constraints on High Northern Photosynthesis Increase Using Earth System Models and a Set of Independent Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winkler, A. J.; Brovkin, V.; Myneni, R.; Alexandrov, G.

2017-12-01

Plant growth in the northern high latitudes benefits from increasing temperature (radiative effect) and CO2 fertilization as a consequence of rising atmospheric CO2 concentration. This enhanced gross primary production (GPP) is evident in large scale increase in summer time greening over the 36-year record of satellite observations. In this time period also various global ecosystem models simulate a greening trend in terms of increasing leaf area index (LAI). We also found a persistent greening trend analyzing historical simulations of Earth system models (ESM) participating in Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). However, these models span a large range in strength of the LAI trend, expressed as sensitivity to both key environmental factors, temperature and CO2 concentration. There is also a wide spread in magnitude of the associated increase of terrestrial GPP among the ESMs, which contributes to pronounced uncertainties in projections of future climate change. Here we demonstrate that there is a linear relationship across the CMIP5 model ensemble between projected GPP changes and historical LAI sensitivity, which allows using the observed LAI sensitivity as an "emerging constraint" on GPP estimation at future CO2 concentration. This constrained estimate of future GPP is substantially higher than the traditional multi-model mean suggesting that the majority of current ESMs may be significantly underestimating carbon fixation by vegetation in NHL. We provide three independent lines of evidence in analyzing observed and simulated CO2 amplitude as well as atmospheric CO2 inversion products to arrive at the same conclusion.

Influence of internal variability on population exposure to hydroclimatic changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mankin, Justin S.; Viviroli, Daniel; Mekonnen, Mesfin M.; Hoekstra, Arjen Y.; Horton, Radley M.; E Smerdon, Jason; Diffenbaugh, Noah S.

2017-04-01

Future freshwater supply, human water demand, and people’s exposure to water stress are subject to multiple sources of uncertainty, including unknown future pathways of fossil fuel and water consumption, and ‘irreducible’ uncertainty arising from internal climate system variability. Such internal variability can conceal forced hydroclimatic changes on multi-decadal timescales and near-continental spatial-scales. Using three projections of population growth, a large ensemble from a single Earth system model, and assuming stationary per capita water consumption, we quantify the likelihoods of future population exposure to increased hydroclimatic deficits, which we define as the average duration and magnitude by which evapotranspiration exceeds precipitation in a basin. We calculate that by 2060, ∽31%-35% of the global population will be exposed to >50% probability of hydroclimatic deficit increases that exceed existing hydrological storage, with up to 9% of people exposed to >90% probability. However, internal variability, which is an irreducible uncertainty in climate model predictions that is under-sampled in water resource projections, creates substantial uncertainty in predicted exposure: ∽86%-91% of people will reside where irreducible uncertainty spans the potential for both increases and decreases in sub-annual water deficits. In one population scenario, changes in exposure to large hydroclimate deficits vary from -3% to +6% of global population, a range arising entirely from internal variability. The uncertainty in risk arising from irreducible uncertainty in the precise pattern of hydroclimatic change, which is typically conflated with other uncertainties in projections, is critical for climate risk management that seeks to optimize adaptations that are robust to the full set of potential real-world outcomes.

Large-Scale Science Observatories: Building on What We Have Learned from USArray

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woodward, R.; Busby, R.; Detrick, R. S.; Frassetto, A.

2015-12-01

With the NSF-sponsored EarthScope USArray observatory, the Earth science community has built the operational capability and experience to tackle scientific challenges at the largest scales, such as a Subduction Zone Observatory. In the first ten years of USArray, geophysical instruments were deployed across roughly 2% of the Earth's surface. The USArray operated a rolling deployment of seismic stations that occupied ~1,700 sites across the USA, made co-located atmospheric observations, occupied hundreds of sites with magnetotelluric sensors, expanded a backbone reference network of seismic stations, and provided instruments to PI-led teams that deployed thousands of additional seismic stations. USArray included a comprehensive outreach component that directly engaged hundreds of students at over 50 colleges and universities to locate station sites and provided Earth science exposure to roughly 1,000 landowners who hosted stations. The project also included a comprehensive data management capability that received, archived and distributed data, metadata, and data products; data were acquired and distributed in real time. The USArray project was completed on time and under budget and developed a number of best practices that can inform other large-scale science initiatives that the Earth science community is contemplating. Key strategies employed by USArray included: using a survey, rather than hypothesis-driven, mode of observation to generate comprehensive, high quality data on a large-scale for exploration and discovery; making data freely and openly available to any investigator from the very onset of the project; and using proven, commercial, off-the-shelf systems to ensure a fast start and avoid delays due to over-reliance on unproven technology or concepts. Scope was set ambitiously, but managed carefully to avoid overextending. Configuration was controlled to ensure efficient operations while providing consistent, uniform observations. Finally, community governance structures were put in place to ensure a focus on science needs and goals, to provide an informed review of the project's results, and to carefully balance consistency of observations with technical evolution. We will summarize lessons learned from USArray and how these can be applied to future efforts such as SZO.

Climate Projection Data base for Roads - CliPDaR: Design a guideline for a transnational database of downscaled climate projection data for road impact models - within the Conference's of European Directors of Roads (CEDR) TRANSNATIONAL ROAD RESEARCH PROG

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matulla, Christoph; Namyslo, Joachim; Fuchs, Tobias; Türk, Konrad

2013-04-01

The European road sector is vulnerable to extreme weather phenomena, which can cause large socio-economic losses. Almost every year there occur several weather triggered events (like heavy precipitation, floods, landslides, high winds, snow and ice, heat or cold waves, etc.), that disrupt transportation, knock out power lines, cut off populated regions from the outside and so on. So, in order to avoid imbalances in the supply of vital goods to people as well as to prevent negative impacts on health and life of people travelling by car it is essential to know present and future threats to roads. Climate change might increase future threats to roads. CliPDaR focuses on parts of the European road network and contributes, based on the current body of knowledge, to the establishment of guidelines helping to decide which methods and scenarios to apply for the estimation of future climate change based challenges in the field of road maintenance. Based on regional scale climate change projections specific road-impact models are applied in order to support protection measures. In recent years, it has been recognised that it is essential to assess the uncertainty and reliability of given climate projections by using ensemble approaches and downscaling methods. A huge amount of scientific work has been done to evaluate these approaches with regard to reliability and usefulness for investigations on possible impacts of climate changes. CliPDaR is going to collect the existing approaches and methodologies in European countries, discuss their differences and - in close cooperation with the road owners - develops a common line on future applications of climate projection data to road impact models. As such, the project will focus on reviewing and assessing existing regional climate change projections regarding transnational highway transport needs. The final project report will include recommendations how the findings of CliPDaR may support the decision processes of European national road administrations regarding possible future climate change impacts. First project results are presented at the conference.

Projections of Water Stress Based on an Ensemble of Socioeconomic Growth and Climate Change Scenarios: A Case Study in Asia.

PubMed

Fant, Charles; Schlosser, C Adam; Gao, Xiang; Strzepek, Kenneth; Reilly, John

2016-01-01

The sustainability of future water resources is of paramount importance and is affected by many factors, including population, wealth and climate. Inherent in current methods to estimate these factors in the future is the uncertainty of their prediction. In this study, we integrate a large ensemble of scenarios--internally consistent across economics, emissions, climate, and population--to develop a risk portfolio of water stress over a large portion of Asia that includes China, India, and Mainland Southeast Asia in a future with unconstrained emissions. We isolate the effects of socioeconomic growth from the effects of climate change in order to identify the primary drivers of stress on water resources. We find that water needs related to socioeconomic changes, which are currently small, are likely to increase considerably in the future, often overshadowing the effect of climate change on levels of water stress. As a result, there is a high risk of severe water stress in densely populated watersheds by 2050, compared to recent history. There is strong evidence to suggest that, in the absence of autonomous adaptation or societal response, a much larger portion of the region's population will live in water-stressed regions in the near future. Tools and studies such as these can effectively investigate large-scale system sensitivities and can be useful in engaging and informing decision makers.

Projections of Water Stress Based on an Ensemble of Socioeconomic Growth and Climate Change Scenarios: A Case Study in Asia

PubMed Central

Fant, Charles; Schlosser, C. Adam; Gao, Xiang; Strzepek, Kenneth; Reilly, John

2016-01-01

The sustainability of future water resources is of paramount importance and is affected by many factors, including population, wealth and climate. Inherent in current methods to estimate these factors in the future is the uncertainty of their prediction. In this study, we integrate a large ensemble of scenarios—internally consistent across economics, emissions, climate, and population—to develop a risk portfolio of water stress over a large portion of Asia that includes China, India, and Mainland Southeast Asia in a future with unconstrained emissions. We isolate the effects of socioeconomic growth from the effects of climate change in order to identify the primary drivers of stress on water resources. We find that water needs related to socioeconomic changes, which are currently small, are likely to increase considerably in the future, often overshadowing the effect of climate change on levels of water stress. As a result, there is a high risk of severe water stress in densely populated watersheds by 2050, compared to recent history. There is strong evidence to suggest that, in the absence of autonomous adaptation or societal response, a much larger portion of the region’s population will live in water-stressed regions in the near future. Tools and studies such as these can effectively investigate large-scale system sensitivities and can be useful in engaging and informing decision makers. PMID:27028871

Trends in winter circulation over the British Isles and central Europe in twenty-first century projections by 25 CMIP5 GCMs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stryhal, Jan; Huth, Radan

2018-03-01

Winter midlatitude atmospheric circulation has been extensively studied for its tight link to surface weather, and automated circulation classifications have often been used to this end. Here, eight such classifications are applied to daily sea level pressure patterns simulated by an ensemble of CMIP5 GCMs twenty-first century projections for the British Isles and central Europe in order to robustly estimate future changes in frequency, persistence, and strength of synoptic-scale circulation there. All methods are able to identify present-day biases of models reported before, such as an overestimated occurrence of zonal flow and underestimation of anticyclonic conditions and easterly advection, although the strength of these biases varies among the methods. In future, models show that the zonal flow will become more frequent while the strength of the mean flow is not projected to change. Over the British Isles, the models that better simulate the latitude of zonal flow over the historical period indicate a slight equatorward shift of westerlies in their projections, while the poleward expansion of circulation—expected in future at global scale—is apparent in those models that have large errors. Over central Europe, some classifications indicate an increase in persistence and especially in frequency of anticyclonic types, which is, however, shown to be rather an artifact of some methods than a real feature. On the other hand, the easterly flow is robustly projected to become markedly weaker in central Europe, which we hypothesize might be an important factor contributing to the projected decrease of cold extremes there.

Implementation of Fiber Optic Sensing System on Sandwich Composite Cylinder Buckling Test

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pena, Francisco; Richards, W. Lance; Parker, Allen R.; Piazza, Anthony; Schultz, Marc R.; Rudd, Michelle T.; Gardner, Nathaniel W.; Hilburger, Mark W.

2018-01-01

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Engineering and Safety Center Shell Buckling Knockdown Factor Project is a multicenter project tasked with developing new analysis-based shell buckling design guidelines and design factors (i.e., knockdown factors) through high-fidelity buckling simulations and advanced test technologies. To validate these new buckling knockdown factors for future launch vehicles, the Shell Buckling Knockdown Factor Project is carrying out structural testing on a series of large-scale metallic and composite cylindrical shells at the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (Marshall Space Flight Center, Alabama). A fiber optic sensor system was used to measure strain on a large-scale sandwich composite cylinder that was tested under multiple axial compressive loads up to more than 850,000 lb, and equivalent bending loads over 22 million in-lb. During the structural testing of the composite cylinder, strain data were collected from optical cables containing distributed fiber Bragg gratings using a custom fiber optic sensor system interrogator developed at the NASA Armstrong Flight Research Center. A total of 16 fiber-optic strands, each containing nearly 1,000 fiber Bragg gratings, measuring strain, were installed on the inner and outer cylinder surfaces to monitor the test article global structural response through high-density real-time and post test strain measurements. The distributed sensing system provided evidence of local epoxy failure at the attachment-ring-to-barrel interface that would not have been detected with conventional instrumentation. Results from the fiber optic sensor system were used to further refine and validate structural models for buckling of the large-scale composite structures. This paper discusses the techniques employed for real-time structural monitoring of the composite cylinder for structural load introduction and distributed bending-strain measurements over a large section of the cylinder by utilizing unique sensing capabilities of fiber optic sensors.

Extreme Events in China under Climate Change: Uncertainty and related impacts (CSSP-FOREX)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leckebusch, Gregor C.; Befort, Daniel J.; Hodges, Kevin I.

2016-04-01

Suitable adaptation strategies or the timely initiation of related mitigation efforts in East Asia will strongly depend on robust and comprehensive information about future near-term as well as long-term potential changes in the climate system. Therefore, understanding the driving mechanisms associated with the East Asian climate is of major importance. The FOREX project (Fostering Regional Decision Making by the Assessment of Uncertainties of Future Regional Extremes and their Linkage to Global Climate System Variability for China and East Asia) focuses on the investigation of extreme wind and rainfall related events over Eastern Asia and their possible future changes. Here, analyses focus on the link between local extreme events and their driving weather systems. This includes the coupling between local rainfall extremes and tropical cyclones, the Meiyu frontal system, extra-tropical teleconnections and monsoonal activity. Furthermore, the relation between these driving weather systems and large-scale variability modes, e.g. NAO, PDO, ENSO is analysed. Thus, beside analysing future changes of local extreme events, the temporal variability of their driving weather systems and related large-scale variability modes will be assessed in current CMIP5 global model simulations to obtain more robust results. Beyond an overview of FOREX itself, first results regarding the link between local extremes and their steering weather systems based on observational and reanalysis data are shown. Special focus is laid on the contribution of monsoonal activity, tropical cyclones and the Meiyu frontal system on the inter-annual variability of the East Asian summer rainfall.

Induced Seismicity Potential of Energy Technologies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hitzman, Murray

2013-03-01

Earthquakes attributable to human activities-``induced seismic events''-have received heightened public attention in the United States over the past several years. Upon request from the U.S. Congress and the Department of Energy, the National Research Council was asked to assemble a committee of experts to examine the scale, scope, and consequences of seismicity induced during fluid injection and withdrawal associated with geothermal energy development, oil and gas development, and carbon capture and storage (CCS). The committee's report, publicly released in June 2012, indicates that induced seismicity associated with fluid injection or withdrawal is caused in most cases by change in pore fluid pressure and/or change in stress in the subsurface in the presence of faults with specific properties and orientations and a critical state of stress in the rocks. The factor that appears to have the most direct consequence in regard to induced seismicity is the net fluid balance (total balance of fluid introduced into or removed from the subsurface). Energy technology projects that are designed to maintain a balance between the amount of fluid being injected and withdrawn, such as most oil and gas development projects, appear to produce fewer seismic events than projects that do not maintain fluid balance. Major findings from the study include: (1) as presently implemented, the process of hydraulic fracturing for shale gas recovery does not pose a high risk for inducing felt seismic events; (2) injection for disposal of waste water derived from energy technologies does pose some risk for induced seismicity, but very few events have been documented over the past several decades relative to the large number of disposal wells in operation; and (3) CCS, due to the large net volumes of injected fluids suggested for future large-scale carbon storage projects, may have potential for inducing larger seismic events.

Pressure Decay Testing Methodology for Quantifying Leak Rates of Full-Scale Docking System Seals

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dunlap, Patrick H., Jr.; Daniels, Christopher C.; Wasowski, Janice L.; Garafolo, Nicholas G.; Penney, Nicholas; Steinetz, Bruce M.

2010-01-01

NASA is developing a new docking system to support future space exploration missions to low-Earth orbit and the Moon. This system, called the Low Impact Docking System, is a mechanism designed to connect the Orion Crew Exploration Vehicle to the International Space Station, the lunar lander (Altair), and other future Constellation Project vehicles. NASA Glenn Research Center is playing a key role in developing the main interface seal for this docking system. This seal will be relatively large with an outside diameter in the range of 54 to 58 in. (137 to 147 cm). As part of this effort, a new test apparatus has been designed, fabricated, and installed to measure leak rates of candidate full-scale seals under simulated thermal, vacuum, and engagement conditions. Using this test apparatus, a pressure decay testing and data processing methodology has been developed to quantify full-scale seal leak rates. Tests performed on untreated 54 in. diameter seals at room temperature in a fully compressed state resulted in leak rates lower than the requirement of less than 0.0025 lbm, air per day (0.0011 kg/day).

Large Scale eHealth Deployment in Europe: Insights from Concurrent Use of Standards.

PubMed

Eichelberg, Marco; Chronaki, Catherine

2016-01-01

Large-scale eHealth deployment projects face a major challenge when called to select the right set of standards and tools to achieve sustainable interoperability in an ecosystem including both legacy systems and new systems reflecting technological trends and progress. There is not a single standard that would cover all needs of an eHealth project, and there is a multitude of overlapping and perhaps competing standards that can be employed to define document formats, terminology, communication protocols mirroring alternative technical approaches and schools of thought. eHealth projects need to respond to the important question of how alternative or inconsistently implemented standards and specifications can be used to ensure practical interoperability and long-term sustainability in large scale eHealth deployment. In the eStandards project, 19 European case studies reporting from R&D and large-scale eHealth deployment and policy projects were analyzed. Although this study is not exhaustive, reflecting on the concepts, standards, and tools for concurrent use and the successes, failures, and lessons learned, this paper offers practical insights on how eHealth deployment projects can make the most of the available eHealth standards and tools and how standards and profile developing organizations can serve the users embracing sustainability and technical innovation.

A large-scale forest fragmentation experiment: the Stability of Altered Forest Ecosystems Project.

PubMed

Ewers, Robert M; Didham, Raphael K; Fahrig, Lenore; Ferraz, Gonçalo; Hector, Andy; Holt, Robert D; Kapos, Valerie; Reynolds, Glen; Sinun, Waidi; Snaddon, Jake L; Turner, Edgar C

2011-11-27

Opportunities to conduct large-scale field experiments are rare, but provide a unique opportunity to reveal the complex processes that operate within natural ecosystems. Here, we review the design of existing, large-scale forest fragmentation experiments. Based on this review, we develop a design for the Stability of Altered Forest Ecosystems (SAFE) Project, a new forest fragmentation experiment to be located in the lowland tropical forests of Borneo (Sabah, Malaysia). The SAFE Project represents an advance on existing experiments in that it: (i) allows discrimination of the effects of landscape-level forest cover from patch-level processes; (ii) is designed to facilitate the unification of a wide range of data types on ecological patterns and processes that operate over a wide range of spatial scales; (iii) has greater replication than existing experiments; (iv) incorporates an experimental manipulation of riparian corridors; and (v) embeds the experimentally fragmented landscape within a wider gradient of land-use intensity than do existing projects. The SAFE Project represents an opportunity for ecologists across disciplines to participate in a large initiative designed to generate a broad understanding of the ecological impacts of tropical forest modification.

A large-scale forest fragmentation experiment: the Stability of Altered Forest Ecosystems Project

PubMed Central

Ewers, Robert M.; Didham, Raphael K.; Fahrig, Lenore; Ferraz, Gonçalo; Hector, Andy; Holt, Robert D.; Kapos, Valerie; Reynolds, Glen; Sinun, Waidi; Snaddon, Jake L.; Turner, Edgar C.

2011-01-01

Opportunities to conduct large-scale field experiments are rare, but provide a unique opportunity to reveal the complex processes that operate within natural ecosystems. Here, we review the design of existing, large-scale forest fragmentation experiments. Based on this review, we develop a design for the Stability of Altered Forest Ecosystems (SAFE) Project, a new forest fragmentation experiment to be located in the lowland tropical forests of Borneo (Sabah, Malaysia). The SAFE Project represents an advance on existing experiments in that it: (i) allows discrimination of the effects of landscape-level forest cover from patch-level processes; (ii) is designed to facilitate the unification of a wide range of data types on ecological patterns and processes that operate over a wide range of spatial scales; (iii) has greater replication than existing experiments; (iv) incorporates an experimental manipulation of riparian corridors; and (v) embeds the experimentally fragmented landscape within a wider gradient of land-use intensity than do existing projects. The SAFE Project represents an opportunity for ecologists across disciplines to participate in a large initiative designed to generate a broad understanding of the ecological impacts of tropical forest modification. PMID:22006969

Simulation of climate change in San Francisco Bay Basins, California: Case studies in the Russian River Valley and Santa Cruz Mountains

USGS Publications Warehouse

Flint, Lorraine E.; Flint, Alan L.

2012-01-01

As a result of ongoing changes in climate, hydrologic and ecologic effects are being seen across the western United States. A regional study of how climate change affects water resources and habitats in the San Francisco Bay area relied on historical climate data and future projections of climate, which were downscaled to fine spatial scales for application to a regional water-balance model. Changes in climate, potential evapotranspiration, recharge, runoff, and climatic water deficit were modeled for the Bay Area. In addition, detailed studies in the Russian River Valley and Santa Cruz Mountains, which are on the northern and southern extremes of the Bay Area, respectively, were carried out in collaboration with local water agencies. Resource managers depend on science-based projections to inform planning exercises that result in competent adaptation to ongoing and future changes in water supply and environmental conditions. Results indicated large spatial variability in climate change and the hydrologic response across the region; although there is warming under all projections, potential change in precipitation by the end of the 21st century differed according to model. Hydrologic models predicted reduced early and late wet season runoff for the end of the century for both wetter and drier future climate projections, which could result in an extended dry season. In fact, summers are projected to be longer and drier in the future than in the past regardless of precipitation trends. While water supply could be subject to increased variability (that is, reduced reliability) due to greater variability in precipitation, water demand is likely to steadily increase because of increased evapotranspiration rates and climatic water deficit during the extended summers. Extended dry season conditions and the potential for drought, combined with unprecedented increases in precipitation, could serve as additional stressors on water quality and habitat. By focusing on the relationship between soil moisture storage and evapotranspiration pressures, climatic water deficit integrates the effects of increasing temperature and varying precipitation on basin conditions. At the fine-scale used for these analyses, this variable is an effective indicator of the areas in the landscape that are the most resilient or vulnerable to projected changes. These analyses have shown that regardless of the direction of precipitation change, climatic water deficit is projected to increase, which implies greater water demand to maintain current agricultural resources or land cover. Fine-scale modeling provides a spatially distributed view of locations in the landscape that could prove to be resilient to climatic changes in contrast to locations where vegetation is currently living on the edge of its present-day bioclimatic distribution and, therefore, is more likely to perish or shift to other dominant species under future warming. This type of modeling and the associated analyses provide a useful means for greater understanding of water and land resources, which can lead to better resource management and planning.

Development of a database system for mapping insertional mutations onto the mouse genome with large-scale experimental data

PubMed Central

2009-01-01

Background Insertional mutagenesis is an effective method for functional genomic studies in various organisms. It can rapidly generate easily tractable mutations. A large-scale insertional mutagenesis with the piggyBac (PB) transposon is currently performed in mice at the Institute of Developmental Biology and Molecular Medicine (IDM), Fudan University in Shanghai, China. This project is carried out via collaborations among multiple groups overseeing interconnected experimental steps and generates a large volume of experimental data continuously. Therefore, the project calls for an efficient database system for recording, management, statistical analysis, and information exchange. Results This paper presents a database application called MP-PBmice (insertional mutation mapping system of PB Mutagenesis Information Center), which is developed to serve the on-going large-scale PB insertional mutagenesis project. A lightweight enterprise-level development framework Struts-Spring-Hibernate is used here to ensure constructive and flexible support to the application. The MP-PBmice database system has three major features: strict access-control, efficient workflow control, and good expandability. It supports the collaboration among different groups that enter data and exchange information on daily basis, and is capable of providing real time progress reports for the whole project. MP-PBmice can be easily adapted for other large-scale insertional mutation mapping projects and the source code of this software is freely available at http://www.idmshanghai.cn/PBmice. Conclusion MP-PBmice is a web-based application for large-scale insertional mutation mapping onto the mouse genome, implemented with the widely used framework Struts-Spring-Hibernate. This system is already in use by the on-going genome-wide PB insertional mutation mapping project at IDM, Fudan University. PMID:19958505

Uncertainties in discharge projections in consequence of climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liebert, J.; Düthmann, D.; Berg, P.; Feldmann, H.; Ihringer, J.; Kunstmann, H.; Merz, B.; Ott, I.; Schädler, G.; Wagner, S.

2012-04-01

The fourth assessment report of the IPCC summarizes possible effects of the global climate change. For Europe an increasing variability of temperature and precipitation is expected. While the increasing temperature is projected almost uniformly for Europe, for precipitation the models indicate partly heterogeneous tendencies. In order to maintain current safety-standards in the infrastructure of our various water management systems, the possible future floods discharges are very often a central question. In the planning and operation of water infrastructure systems uncertainties considerations have an important function. In times of climate change the analyses of measured historical gauge data (normally 30 - 80 years) are not sufficient enough, because even significant trends are only valid in the analyzed time period and extrapolations are exceedingly difficult. Therefore combined climate and hydrological modeling for scenario based projections become more and more popular. Regarding that adaptation measures in water infrastructure are in general very time-consuming and cost intensive qualified questions to the variability and uncertainty of model based results are important as well. The CEDIM-Project "Flood hazards in a changing climate" is focusing on both: future changes in flood discharge and assess the uncertainties that are involved in such model based future predictions. In detail the study bases on an ensemble of hydrological model (HM) simulations in 3 representative small to medium sized German river catchments (Ammer, Mulde and Ruhr). The meteorological Input bases on 2 high resolution (7 km) regional climate models (RCM) driven by 2 global climate models (GCM) for the near future (2021 - 2050) following the A1B emission scenario (SRES). Two of the catchments (Ruhr and Mulde) have sub-mountainous and one (Ammer) has alpine character. Besides analyzing the future changes in discharge in the catchments, the describing and potential quantification of the variability of the results, based on the different driving data, regionalization methods, spatial resolutions and model types, is one main goal of the study and should stay in the focus of the poster. The general result is a large variability in the discharge projection. The identified variabilities are in the annual regime mainly attributable to different causes in the used model chain (GCM-RCM-HM). In winter the global climate models (GCM) bring the main uncertainties in the future projection. In summer the main variability refers to the meteorological downscaling to the regional scale (RCM) in combination with the hydrological modeling (HM). But with an appropriate ensemble statistic are despite the large variabilities mean future tendencies detectable. The Ruhr catchment shows tendencies to future higher flood discharges and in the Ammer and Mulde catchments are no significant changes expected.

Vulnerability-based evaluation of water supply design under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Umit Taner, Mehmet; Ray, Patrick; Brown, Casey

2015-04-01

Long-lived water supply infrastructures are strategic investments in the developing world, serving the purpose of balancing water deficits compounded by both population growth and socio-economic development. Robust infrastructure design under climate change is compelling, and often addressed by focusing on the outcomes of climate model projections ('scenario-led' planning), or by identifying design options that are less vulnerable to a wide range of plausible futures ('vulnerability-based' planning). Decision-Scaling framework combines these two approaches by first applying a climate stress test on the system to explore vulnerabilities across many traces of the future, and then employing climate projections to inform the decision-making process. In this work, we develop decision scaling's nascent risk management concepts further, directing actions on vulnerabilities identified during the climate stress test. In the process, we present a new way to inform climate vulnerability space using climate projections, and demonstrate the use of multiple decision criteria to guide to a final design recommendation. The concepts are demonstrated for a water supply project in the Mombasa Province of Kenya, planned to provide domestic and irrigation supply. Six storage design capacities (from 40 to 140 million cubic meters) are explored through a stress test, under a large number climate traces representing both natural climate variability and plausible climate changes. Design outcomes are simulated over a 40-year planning period with a coupled hydrologic-water resources systems model and using standard reservoir operation rules. Resulting performance is expressed in terms of water supply reliability and economic efficiency. Ensemble climate projections are used for assigning conditional likelihoods to the climate traces using a statistical distance measure. The final design recommendations are presented and discussed for the decision criteria of expected regret, satisficing, and conditional value-at-risk (CVaR).

Investing American Recovery and Reinvestment Act Funds to Advance Capability, Reliability, and Performance in NASA Wind Tunnels

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sydnor, Goerge H.

2010-01-01

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Aeronautics Test Program (ATP) is implementing five significant ground-based test facility projects across the nation with funding provided by the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA). The projects were selected as the best candidates within the constraints of the ARRA and the strategic plan of ATP. They are a combination of much-needed large scale maintenance, reliability, and system upgrades plus creating new test beds for upcoming research programs. The projects are: 1.) Re-activation of a large compressor to provide a second source for compressed air and vacuum to the Unitary Plan Wind Tunnel at the Ames Research Center (ARC) 2.) Addition of high-altitude ice crystal generation at the Glenn Research Center Propulsion Systems Laboratory Test Cell 3, 3.) New refrigeration system and tunnel heat exchanger for the Icing Research Tunnel at the Glenn Research Center, 4.) Technical viability improvements for the National Transonic Facility at the Langley Research Center, and 5.) Modifications to conduct Environmentally Responsible Aviation and Rotorcraft research at the 14 x 22 Subsonic Tunnel at Langley Research Center. The selection rationale, problem statement, and technical solution summary for each project is given here. The benefits and challenges of the ARRA funded projects are discussed. Indirectly, this opportunity provides the advantages of developing experience in NASA's workforce in large projects and maintaining corporate knowledge in that very unique capability. It is envisioned that improved facilities will attract a larger user base and capabilities that are needed for current and future research efforts will offer revenue growth and future operations stability. Several of the chosen projects will maximize wind tunnel reliability and maintainability by using newer, proven technologies in place of older and obsolete equipment and processes. The projects will meet NASA's goal of integrating more efficient, environmentally safer, and less energy consuming hardware and processes into existing tunnel systems. These include Environmental Protection Agency-approved refrigerants, energy efficient motors, and faster, flexible tunnel data systems.

Large-scale neuromorphic computing systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Furber, Steve

2016-10-01

Neuromorphic computing covers a diverse range of approaches to information processing all of which demonstrate some degree of neurobiological inspiration that differentiates them from mainstream conventional computing systems. The philosophy behind neuromorphic computing has its origins in the seminal work carried out by Carver Mead at Caltech in the late 1980s. This early work influenced others to carry developments forward, and advances in VLSI technology supported steady growth in the scale and capability of neuromorphic devices. Recently, a number of large-scale neuromorphic projects have emerged, taking the approach to unprecedented scales and capabilities. These large-scale projects are associated with major new funding initiatives for brain-related research, creating a sense that the time and circumstances are right for progress in our understanding of information processing in the brain. In this review we present a brief history of neuromorphic engineering then focus on some of the principal current large-scale projects, their main features, how their approaches are complementary and distinct, their advantages and drawbacks, and highlight the sorts of capabilities that each can deliver to neural modellers.

SunShot 2030 for Photovoltaics (PV): Envisioning a Low-cost PV Future

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cole, Wesley J.; Frew, Bethany A.; Gagnon, Pieter J.

In this report we summarize the implications, impacts, and deployment potential of reaching the SunShot 2030 targets for the electricity system in the contiguous United States. We model 25 scenarios of the U.S. power sector using the Regional Energy Deployment Systems (ReEDS) and Distributed Generation (dGen) capacity expansion models. The scenarios cover a wide range of sensitivities to capture future uncertainties relating to fuel prices, retirements, renewable energy capital costs, and load growth. We give special attention to the potential for storage costs to also rapidly decline due to its large synergies with low-cost solar. The ReEDS and dGen modelsmore » project utility- and distributed-scale power sector evolution, respectively, for the United States. Both models have been designed with special emphasis on capturing the unique traits of renewable energy, including variability and grid integration requirements. Across the suite of scenarios modeled, we find that reaching the SunShot 2030 target has the potential to lead to significant capacity additions of PV in the United States. By 2050, PV penetration levels are projected to reach 28-46 percent of total generation. If storage also sees significant reductions in cost, then the 2050 solar penetration levels could reach 41-64 percent. PV deployment is projected to occur in all of the lower 48 states, though the specific deployment level is scenario dependent. The growth in PV is projected to be dominated by utility-scale systems, but the actual mix between utility and distributed systems could ultimately vary depending on how policies, system costs, and rate structures evolve.« less

A parallel data management system for large-scale NASA datasets

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Srivastava, Jaideep

1993-01-01

The past decade has experienced a phenomenal growth in the amount of data and resultant information generated by NASA's operations and research projects. A key application is the reprocessing problem which has been identified to require data management capabilities beyond those available today (PRAT93). The Intelligent Information Fusion (IIF) system (ROEL91) is an ongoing NASA project which has similar requirements. Deriving our understanding of NASA's future data management needs based on the above, this paper describes an approach to using parallel computer systems (processor and I/O architectures) to develop an efficient parallel database management system to address the needs. Specifically, we propose to investigate issues in low-level record organizations and management, complex query processing, and query compilation and scheduling.

Forecasting landscape effects of Mississippi River diversions on elevation and accretion in Louisiana deltaic wetlands under future environmental uncertainty scenarios

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wang, Hongqing; Steyer, Gregory D.; Couvillion, Brady R.; John M. Rybczyk,; Beck, Holly J.; William J. Sleavin,; Ehab A. Meselhe,; Mead A. Allison,; Ronald G. Boustany,; Craig J. Fischenich,; Victor H. Rivera-Monroy,

2014-01-01

Large sediment diversions are proposed and expected to build new wetlands to alleviate the extensive wetland loss (5,000 km2) affecting coastal Louisiana during the last 78 years. Current assessment and prediction of the impacts of sediment diversions have focused on the capture and dispersal of both water and sediment on the adjacent river side and the immediate outfall marsh area. However, little is known about the effects of sediment diversions on existing wetland surface elevation and vertical accretion dynamics in the receiving basin at the landscape scale. In this study, we used a spatial wetland surface elevation model developed in support of Louisiana's 2012 Coastal Master Plan to examine such landscape-scale effects of sediment diversions. Multiple sediment diversion projects were incorporated in the model to simulate surface elevation and vertical accretion for the next 50 years (2010-2060) under two environmental (moderate and less optimistic) scenarios. Specifically, we examined landscape-scale surface elevation and vertical accretion trends under diversions with different geographical locations, diverted discharge rates, and geomorphic characteristics of the receiving basin. Model results indicate that small diversions (< 283 m3 s-1) tend to have limited effects of reducing landscape-scale elevation loss (< 3%) compared to a future without action (FWOA) condition. Large sediment diversions (> 1,500 m3 s-1) are required to achieve landscape-level benefits to promote surface elevation via vertical accretion to keep pace with rising sea level.

In Defense of the National Labs and Big-Budget Science

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Goodwin, J R

2008-07-29

The purpose of this paper is to present the unofficial and unsanctioned opinions of a Visiting Scientist at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory on the values of LLNL and the other National Labs. The basic founding value and goal of the National Labs is big-budget scientific research, along with smaller-budget scientific research that cannot easily be done elsewhere. The most important example in the latter category is classified defense-related research. The historical guiding light here is the Manhattan Project. This endeavor was unique in human history, and might remain so. The scientific expertise and wealth of an entire nation was tappedmore » in a project that was huge beyond reckoning, with no advance guarantee of success. It was in many respects a clash of scientific titans, with a large supporting cast, collaborating toward a single well-defined goal. Never had scientists received so much respect, so much money, and so much intellectual freedom to pursue scientific progress. And never was the gap between theory and implementation so rapidly narrowed, with results that changed the world, completely. Enormous resources are spent at the national or international level on large-scale scientific projects. LLNL has the most powerful computer in the world, Blue Gene/L. (Oops, Los Alamos just seized the title with Roadrunner; such titles regularly change hands.) LLNL also has the largest laser in the world, the National Ignition Facility (NIF). Lawrence Berkeley National Lab (LBNL) has the most powerful microscope in the world. Not only is it beyond the resources of most large corporations to make such expenditures, but the risk exceeds the possible rewards for those corporations that could. Nor can most small countries afford to finance large scientific projects, and not even the richest can afford largess, especially if Congress is under major budget pressure. Some big-budget research efforts are funded by international consortiums, such as the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) at CERN, and the International Tokamak Experimental Reactor (ITER) in Cadarache, France, a magnetic-confinement fusion research project. The postWWII histories of particle and fusion physics contain remarkable examples of both international competition, with an emphasis on secrecy, and international cooperation, with an emphasis on shared knowledge and resources. Initiatives to share sometimes came from surprising directions. Most large-scale scientific projects have potential defense applications. NIF certainly does; it is primarily designed to create small-scale fusion explosions. Blue Gene/L operates in part in service to NIF, and in part to various defense projects. The most important defense projects include stewardship of the national nuclear weapons stockpile, and the proposed redesign and replacement of those weapons with fewer, safer, more reliable, longer-lived, and less apocalyptic warheads. Many well-meaning people will consider the optimal lifetime of a nuclear weapon to be zero, but most thoughtful people, when asked how much longer they think this nation will require them, will ask for some time to think. NIF is also designed to create exothermic small-scale fusion explosions. The malapropos 'exothermic' here is a convenience to cover a profusion of complexities, but the basic idea is that the explosions will create more recoverable energy than was used to create them. One can hope that the primary future benefits of success for NIF will be in cost-effective generation of electrical power through controlled small-scale fusion reactions, rather than in improved large-scale fusion explosions. Blue Gene/L also services climate research, genomic research, materials research, and a myriad of other computational problems that become more feasible, reliable, and precise the larger the number of computational nodes employed. Blue Gene/L has to be sited within a security complex for obvious reasons, but its value extends to the nation and the world. There is a duality here between large-scale scientific research machines and the supercomputers used to model them. An astounding example is illustrated in a graph released by EFDAJET, at Oxfordshire, UK, presently the largest operating magnetic-confinement fusion experiment. The graph shows plasma confinement times (an essential performance parameter) for all the major tokamaks in the international fusion program, over their existing lifetimes. The remarkable thing about the data is not so much confinement-time versus date or scale, but the fact that the data are given for both the computer model predictions and the actual experimental measurements, and the two are in phenomenal agreement over the extended range of scales. Supercomputer models, sometimes operating with the intricacy of Schroedinger's equation at quantum physical scales, have become a costly but enormously cost-saving tool.« less

The Design of Large Geothermally Powered Air-Conditioning Systems Using an Optimal Control Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horowitz, F. G.; O'Bryan, L.

2010-12-01

The direct use of geothermal energy from Hot Sedimentary Aquifer (HSA) systems for large scale air-conditioning projects involves many tradeoffs. Aspects contributing towards making design decisions for such systems include: the inadequately known permeability and thermal distributions underground; the combinatorial complexity of selecting pumping and chiller systems to match the underground conditions to the air-conditioning requirements; the future price variations of the electricity market; any uncertainties in future Carbon pricing; and the applicable discount rate for evaluating the financial worth of the project. Expanding upon the previous work of Horowitz and Hornby (2007), we take an optimal control approach to the design of such systems. By building a model of the HSA system, the drilling process, the pumping process, and the chilling operations, along with a specified objective function, we can write a Hamiltonian for the system. Using the standard techniques of optimal control, we use gradients of the Hamiltonian to find the optimal design for any given set of permeabilities, thermal distributions, and the other engineering and financial parameters. By using this approach, optimal system designs could potentially evolve in response to the actual conditions encountered during drilling. Because the granularity of some current models is so coarse, we will be able to compare our optimal control approach to an exhaustive search of parameter space. We will present examples from the conditions appropriate for the Perth Basin of Western Australia, where the WA Geothermal Centre of Excellence is involved with two large air-conditioning projects using geothermal water from deep aquifers at 75 to 95 degrees C.

Persistent cold air outbreaks over North America in a warming climate

DOE PAGES

Gao, Yang; Leung, L. Ruby; Lu, Jian; ...

2015-03-30

This study examines future changes of cold air outbreaks (CAO) using a multi-model ensemble of global climate simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 as well as regional high resolution climate simulations. In the future, while robust decrease of CAO duration dominates in most regions, the magnitude of decrease over northwestern U.S. is much smaller than the surrounding regions. We identified statistically significant increases in sea level pressure during CAO events centering over Yukon, Alaska, and Gulf of Alaska that advects continental cold air to northwestern U.S., leading to blocking and CAO events. Changes in large scale circulationmore » contribute to about 50% of the enhanced sea level pressure anomaly conducive to CAO in northwestern U.S. in the future. High resolution regional simulations revealed potential contributions of increased existing snowpack to increased CAO in the near future over the Rocky Mountain, southwestern U.S., and Great Lakes areas through surface albedo effects, despite winter mean snow water equivalent decreases in the future. Overall, the multi-model projections emphasize that cold extremes do not completely disappear in a warming climate. Concomitant with the relatively smaller reduction in CAO events in northwestern U.S., the top 5 most extreme CAO events may still occur in the future, and wind chill warning will continue to have societal impacts in that region.« less

THE APPLICATION OF A STATISTICAL DOWNSCALING PROCESS TO DERIVE 21{sup ST} CENTURY RIVER FLOW PREDICTIONS USING A GLOBAL CLIMATE SIMULATION

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Werth, D.; Chen, K. F.

2013-08-22

The ability of water managers to maintain adequate supplies in coming decades depends, in part, on future weather conditions, as climate change has the potential to alter river flows from their current values, possibly rendering them unable to meet demand. Reliable climate projections are therefore critical to predicting the future water supply for the United States. These projections cannot be provided solely by global climate models (GCMs), however, as their resolution is too coarse to resolve the small-scale climate changes that can affect hydrology, and hence water supply, at regional to local scales. A process is needed to ‘downscale’ themore » GCM results to the smaller scales and feed this into a surface hydrology model to help determine the ability of rivers to provide adequate flow to meet future needs. We apply a statistical downscaling to GCM projections of precipitation and temperature through the use of a scaling method. This technique involves the correction of the cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) of the GCM-derived temperature and precipitation results for the 20{sup th} century, and the application of the same correction to 21{sup st} century GCM projections. This is done for three meteorological stations located within the Coosa River basin in northern Georgia, and is used to calculate future river flow statistics for the upper Coosa River. Results are compared to the historical Coosa River flow upstream from Georgia Power Company’s Hammond coal-fired power plant and to flows calculated with the original, unscaled GCM results to determine the impact of potential changes in meteorology on future flows.« less

Technology achievements and projections for communication satellites of the future

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bagwell, J. W.

1986-01-01

Multibeam systems of the future using monolithic microwave integrated circuits to provide phase control and power gain are contrasted with discrete microwave power amplifiers from 10 to 75 W and their associated waveguide feeds, phase shifters and power splitters. Challenging new enabling technology areas include advanced electrooptical control and signal feeds. Large scale MMIC's will be used incorporating on chip control interfaces, latching, and phase and amplitude control with power levels of a few watts each. Beam forming algorithms for 80 to 90 deg. wide angle scanning and precise beam forming under wide ranging environments will be required. Satelllite systems using these dynamically reconfigured multibeam antenna systems will demand greater degrees of beam interconnectivity. Multiband and multiservice users will be interconnected through the same space platform. Monolithic switching arrays operating over a wide range of RF and IF frequencies are contrasted with current IF switch technology implemented discretely. Size, weight, and performance improvements by an order of magnitude are projected.

Controls on Soil Organic Matter in Blue Carbon Ecosystems along the South Florida Coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smoak, J. M.; Rosenheim, B. E.; Moyer, R. P.; Radabaugh, K.; Chambers, L. G.; Lagomasino, D.; Lynch, J.; Cahoon, D. R.

2017-12-01

Coastal wetlands store disproportionately large amounts of carbon due to high rates of net primary productivity and slow microbial degradation of organic matter in water-saturated soils. Wide spatial and temporal variability in plant communities and soil biogeochemistry necessitate location-specific quantification of carbon stocks to improve current wetland carbon inventories and future projections. We apply field measurements, remote sensing technology, and spatiotemporal models to quantify regional carbon storage and to model future spatial variability of carbon stocks in mangroves and coastal marshes in Southwest Florida. We examine soil carbon accumulation and accretion rates on time scales ranging from decadal to millennial to project responses to climate change, including variations in inundation and salinity. Once freshwater and oligohaline wetlands are exposed to increased duration and spatial extent of inundation and salinity from seawater, soil redox potential, soil respiration, and the intensification of osmotic stress to vegetation and the soil microbial community can affect the soil C balance potentially increasing rates of mineralization.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Larkoski, Andrew J.; Maltoni, Fabio; Selvaggi, Michele

The identification of hadronically decaying heavy states, such as vector bosons, the Higgs, or the top quark, produced with large transverse boosts has been and will continue to be a central focus of the jet physics program at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC). At a future hadron collider working at an order-of-magnitude larger energy than the LHC, these heavy states would be easily produced with transverse boosts of several TeV. At these energies, their decay products will be separated by angular scales comparable to individual calorimeter cells, making the current jet substructure identification techniques for hadronic decay modes not directlymore » employable. In addition, at the high energy and luminosity projected at a future hadron collider, there will be numerous sources for contamination including initial- and final-state radiation, underlying event, or pile-up which must be mitigated. We propose a simple strategy to tag such "hyper-boosted" objects that defines jets with radii that scale inversely proportional to their transverse boost and combines the standard calorimetric information with charged track-based observables. By means of a fast detector simulation, we apply it to top quark identification and demonstrate that our method efficiently discriminates hadronically decaying top quarks from light QCD jets up to transverse boosts of 20 TeV. Lastly, our results open the way to tagging heavy objects with energies in the multi-TeV range at present and future hadron colliders.« less

Tracking down hyper-boosted top quarks

DOE PAGES

Larkoski, Andrew J.; Maltoni, Fabio; Selvaggi, Michele

2015-06-05

The identification of hadronically decaying heavy states, such as vector bosons, the Higgs, or the top quark, produced with large transverse boosts has been and will continue to be a central focus of the jet physics program at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC). At a future hadron collider working at an order-of-magnitude larger energy than the LHC, these heavy states would be easily produced with transverse boosts of several TeV. At these energies, their decay products will be separated by angular scales comparable to individual calorimeter cells, making the current jet substructure identification techniques for hadronic decay modes not directlymore » employable. In addition, at the high energy and luminosity projected at a future hadron collider, there will be numerous sources for contamination including initial- and final-state radiation, underlying event, or pile-up which must be mitigated. We propose a simple strategy to tag such "hyper-boosted" objects that defines jets with radii that scale inversely proportional to their transverse boost and combines the standard calorimetric information with charged track-based observables. By means of a fast detector simulation, we apply it to top quark identification and demonstrate that our method efficiently discriminates hadronically decaying top quarks from light QCD jets up to transverse boosts of 20 TeV. Lastly, our results open the way to tagging heavy objects with energies in the multi-TeV range at present and future hadron colliders.« less

Do differences in future sulfate emission pathways matter for near-term climate? A case study for the Asian monsoon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bartlett, Rachel E.; Bollasina, Massimo A.; Booth, Ben B. B.; Dunstone, Nick J.; Marenco, Franco; Messori, Gabriele; Bernie, Dan J.

2018-03-01

Anthropogenic aerosols could dominate over greenhouse gases in driving near-term hydroclimate change, especially in regions with high present-day aerosol loading such as Asia. Uncertainties in near-future aerosol emissions represent a potentially large, yet unexplored, source of ambiguity in climate projections for the coming decades. We investigated the near-term sensitivity of the Asian summer monsoon to aerosols by means of transient modelling experiments using HadGEM2-ES under two existing climate change mitigation scenarios selected to have similar greenhouse gas forcing, but to span a wide range of plausible global sulfur dioxide emissions. Increased sulfate aerosols, predominantly from East Asian sources, lead to large regional dimming through aerosol-radiation and aerosol-cloud interactions. This results in surface cooling and anomalous anticyclonic flow over land, while abating the western Pacific subtropical high. The East Asian monsoon circulation weakens and precipitation stagnates over Indochina, resembling the observed southern-flood-northern-drought pattern over China. Large-scale circulation adjustments drive suppression of the South Asian monsoon and a westward extension of the Maritime Continent convective region. Remote impacts across the Northern Hemisphere are also generated, including a northwestward shift of West African monsoon rainfall induced by the westward displacement of the Indian Ocean Walker cell, and temperature anomalies in northern midlatitudes linked to propagation of Rossby waves from East Asia. These results indicate that aerosol emissions are a key source of uncertainty in near-term projection of regional and global climate; a careful examination of the uncertainties associated with aerosol pathways in future climate assessments must be highly prioritised.

Remote sensing techniques in cultural resource management archaeology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, Jay K.; Haley, Bryan S.

2003-04-01

Cultural resource management archaeology in the United States concerns compliance with legislation set in place to protect archaeological resources from the impact of modern activities. Traditionally, surface collection, shovel testing, test excavation, and mechanical stripping are used in these projects. These methods are expensive, time consuming, and may poorly represent the features within archaeological sites. The use of remote sensing techniques in cultural resource management archaeology may provide an answer to these problems. Near-surface geophysical techniques, including magnetometry, resistivity, electromagnetics, and ground penetrating radar, have proven to be particularly successful at efficiently locating archaeological features. Research has also indicated airborne and satellite remote sensing may hold some promise in the future for large-scale archaeological survey, although this is difficult in many areas of the world where ground cover reflect archaeological features in an indirect manner. A cost simulation of a hypothetical data recovery project on a large complex site in Mississippi is presented to illustrate the potential advantages of remote sensing in a cultural resource management setting. The results indicate these techniques can save a substantial amount of time and money for these projects.

Results of the Greenland ice sheet model initialisation experiments: ISMIP6 - initMIP-Greenland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goelzer, Heiko; Nowicki, Sophie; Edwards, Tamsin; Beckley, Matthew

2017-04-01

Ice sheet model initialisation has a large effect on projected future sea-level contributions and gives rise to important uncertainties. The goal of this intercomparison exercise for the continental-scale Greenland ice sheet is therefore to compare, evaluate and improve the initialisation techniques used in the ice sheet modelling community. The initMIP-Greenland project is the first in a series of ice sheet model intercomparison activities within ISMIP6 (Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6). The experimental set-up has been designed to allow comparison of the initial present-day state of the Greenland ice sheet between participating models and against observations. Furthermore, the initial states are tested with two schematic forward experiments to evaluate the initialisation in terms of model drift (forward run without any forcing) and response to a large perturbation (prescribed surface mass balance anomaly). We present and discuss results that highlight the wide diversity of data sets, boundary conditions and initialisation techniques used in the community to generate initial states of the Greenland ice sheet.

Status of Technology Development to enable Large Stable UVOIR Space Telescopes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stahl, H. Philip; MSFC AMTD Team

2017-01-01

NASA MSFC has two funded Strategic Astrophysics Technology projects to develop technology for potential future large missions: AMTD and PTC. The Advanced Mirror Technology Development (AMTD) project is developing technology to make mechanically stable mirrors for a 4-meter or larger UVOIR space telescope. AMTD is demonstrating this technology by making a 1.5 meter diameter x 200 mm thick ULE(C) mirror that is 1/3rd scale of a full size 4-m mirror. AMTD is characterizing the mechanical and thermal performance of this mirror and of a 1.2-meter Zerodur(R) mirror to validate integrate modeling tools. Additionally, AMTD has developed integrated modeling tools which are being used to evaluate primary mirror systems for a potential Habitable Exoplanet Mission and analyzed the interaction between optical telescope wavefront stability and coronagraph contrast leakage. Predictive Thermal Control (PTC) project is developing technology to enable high stability thermal wavefront performance by using integrated modeling tools to predict and actively control the thermal environment of a 4-m or larger UVOIR space telescope.

Relative contributions of set-asides and tree retention to the long-term availability of key forest biodiversity structures at the landscape scale.

PubMed

Roberge, Jean-Michel; Lämås, Tomas; Lundmark, Tomas; Ranius, Thomas; Felton, Adam; Nordin, Annika

2015-05-01

Over previous decades new environmental measures have been implemented in forestry. In Fennoscandia, forest management practices were modified to set aside conservation areas and to retain trees at final felling. In this study we simulated the long-term effects of set-aside establishment and tree retention practices on the future availability of large trees and dead wood, two forest structures of documented importance to biodiversity conservation. Using a forest decision support system (Heureka), we projected the amounts of these structures over 200 years in two managed north Swedish landscapes, under management scenarios with and without set-asides and tree retention. In line with common best practice, we simulated set-asides covering 5% of the productive area with priority to older stands, as well as ∼5% green-tree retention (solitary trees and forest patches) including high-stump creation at final felling. We found that only tree retention contributed to substantial increases in the future density of large (DBH ≥35 cm) deciduous trees, while both measures made significant contributions to the availability of large conifers. It took more than half a century to observe stronger increases in the densities of large deciduous trees as an effect of tree retention. The mean landscape-scale volumes of hard dead wood fluctuated widely, but the conservation measures yielded values which were, on average over the entire simulation period, about 2.5 times as high as for scenarios without these measures. While the density of large conifers increased with time in the landscape initially dominated by younger forest, best practice conservation measures did not avert a long-term decrease in large conifer density in the landscape initially comprised of more old forest. Our results highlight the needs to adopt a long temporal perspective and to consider initial landscape conditions when evaluating the large-scale effects of conservation measures on forest biodiversity. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Designing Citizen Science Projects in the Era of Mega-Information and Connected Activism

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pompea, S. M.

2010-12-01

The design of citizen science projects must take many factors into account in order to be successful. Currently, there are a wide variety of citizen science projects with different aims, audiences, reporting methods, and degrees of scientific rigor and usefulness. Projects function on local, national, and worldwide scales and range in time from limited campaigns to around the clock projects. For current and future projects, advanced cell phones and mobile computing allow an unprecedented degree of connectivity and data transfer. These advances will greatly influence the design of citizen science projects. An unprecedented amount of data is available for data mining by interested citizen scientists; how can projects take advantage of this? Finally, a variety of citizen scientist projects have social activism and change as part of their mission and goals. How can this be harnessed in a constructive and efficient way? The design of projects must also select the proper role for experts and novices, provide quality control, and must motivate users to encourage long-term involvement. Effective educational and instructional materials design can be used to design responsive and effective projects in a more highly connected age with access to very large amounts of information.

Optical mapping and its potential for large-scale sequencing projects.

PubMed

Aston, C; Mishra, B; Schwartz, D C

1999-07-01

Physical mapping has been rediscovered as an important component of large-scale sequencing projects. Restriction maps provide landmark sequences at defined intervals, and high-resolution restriction maps can be assembled from ensembles of single molecules by optical means. Such optical maps can be constructed from both large-insert clones and genomic DNA, and are used as a scaffold for accurately aligning sequence contigs generated by shotgun sequencing.

Ocean-atmosphere relationships from synoptic scale to local scale in South San Francisco Bay, with implications to flood risk at NASA Ames Research Center, Silicon Valley

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mills, W. B.; Costa-Cabral, M. C.; Bromirski, P. D.; Miller, N. L.; Coats, R. N.; Loewenstein, M.; Roy, S. B.; MacWilliams, M.

2012-12-01

This work evaluates the implications to flooding risk at the low-lying NASA Ames Research Center in South San Francisco Bay under historical and projected climate and sea level rise. Atmospheric circulation patterns over the Pacific Ocean, influenced by ENSO and PDO, can result in extended periods of higher mean coastal sea level in California. Simultaneously they originate a larger number of storms that make landfall and have higher mean intensity. These storms generate barometrically-induced high water anomalies, and winds that are sometimes capable of producing large coastal waves. Storm surges that propagate from the coast into the estuary and South Bay, and locally-generated waves, may compromise the discharge capacity of stream channels. These conditions also typically generate high intensity rainfall, and the reduced channel capacity may result in fluvial flooding. Such atmospheric circulation patterns may persist for many months, during which California experiences more precipitation events of longer mean duration and higher intensity, leading to large precipitation totals that saturate soils and may exceed the storage capacity of stormwater retention ponds. Future scenarios of sea level rise, that may surpass a meter in this century according to the projections recently published by the National Research Council for states of CA, OR and WA, and projected atmospheric circulation changes associated with anthropogenic climate change, may amplify these risks. We evaluate the impacts of these changes on NASA's Ames Research Center through four areas of study: (i) wetland accretion and evolution as mean sea level rises, with implications to the Bay's response to the sea level rise and storm surges, (ii) hydrodynamic modeling to simulate the propagation of tidal height and storm surges in the Bay and the influence of local winds on wave height, (iii) evaluation of historical data and future climate projections to identify extreme precipitation events, and (iv) regional climate models to identify moisture source areas and evaluate the role of moisture flux on projected California precipitation.;

On the Uses of Full-Scale Schlieren Flow Visualization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Settles, G. S.; Miller, J. D.; Dodson-Dreibelbis, L. J.

2000-11-01

A lens-and-grid-type schlieren system using a very large grid as a light source was described at earlier APS/DFD meetings. With a field-of-view of 2.3x2.9 m (7.5x9.5 feet), it is the largest indoor schlieren system in the world. Still and video examples of several full-scale airflows and heat-transfer problems visualized thus far will be shown. These include: heating and ventilation airflows, flows due to appliances and equipment, the thermal plumes of people, the aerodynamics of an explosive trace detection portal, gas leak detection, shock wave motion associated with aviation security problems, and heat transfer from live crops. Planned future projects include visualizing fume-hood and grocery display freezer airflows and studying the dispersion of insect repellent plumes at full scale.

A numerical projection technique for large-scale eigenvalue problems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gamillscheg, Ralf; Haase, Gundolf; von der Linden, Wolfgang

2011-10-01

We present a new numerical technique to solve large-scale eigenvalue problems. It is based on the projection technique, used in strongly correlated quantum many-body systems, where first an effective approximate model of smaller complexity is constructed by projecting out high energy degrees of freedom and in turn solving the resulting model by some standard eigenvalue solver. Here we introduce a generalization of this idea, where both steps are performed numerically and which in contrast to the standard projection technique converges in principle to the exact eigenvalues. This approach is not just applicable to eigenvalue problems encountered in many-body systems but also in other areas of research that result in large-scale eigenvalue problems for matrices which have, roughly speaking, mostly a pronounced dominant diagonal part. We will present detailed studies of the approach guided by two many-body models.

About ICLUS

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

ICLUS is a project for developing scenarios broadly consistent with global-scale, peer-reviewed storylines of population growth and economic development, which are used by climate change modelers to develop projections of future climate.

Utility-Scale Solar 2014. An Empirical Analysis of Project Cost, Performance, and Pricing Trends in the United States

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bolinger, Mark; Seel, Joachim

2015-09-01

Other than the nine Solar Energy Generation Systems (“SEGS”) parabolic trough projects built in the 1980s, virtually no large-scale or “utility-scale” solar projects – defined here to include any groundmounted photovoltaic (“PV”), concentrating photovoltaic (“CPV”), or concentrating solar thermal power (“CSP”) project larger than 5 MW AC – existed in the United States prior to 2007. By 2012 – just five years later – utility-scale had become the largest sector of the overall PV market in the United States, a distinction that was repeated in both 2013 and 2014 and that is expected to continue for at least the nextmore » few years. Over this same short period, CSP also experienced a bit of a renaissance in the United States, with a number of large new parabolic trough and power tower systems – some including thermal storage – achieving commercial operation. With this critical mass of new utility-scale projects now online and in some cases having operated for a number of years (generating not only electricity, but also empirical data that can be mined), the rapidly growing utility-scale sector is ripe for analysis. This report, the third edition in an ongoing annual series, meets this need through in-depth, annually updated, data-driven analysis of not just installed project costs or prices – i.e., the traditional realm of solar economics analyses – but also operating costs, capacity factors, and power purchase agreement (“PPA”) prices from a large sample of utility-scale solar projects in the United States. Given its current dominance in the market, utility-scale PV also dominates much of this report, though data from CPV and CSP projects are presented where appropriate.« less

Nonstationarity RC Workshop Report: Nonstationary Weather Patterns and Extreme Events Informing Design and Planning for Long-Lived Infrastructure

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-11-01

magnitude, intensity, and seasonality of climate. For infrastructure projects, relevant design life often exceeds 30 years—a period of time of...uncertainty about future statistical properties of climate at time and spatial scales required for planning and design purposes. Information...about future statistical properties of climate at time and spatial scales required for planning and design , and for assessing future operational

FutureCoast: "Listen to your futures"

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pfirman, S. L.; Eklund, K.; Thacher, S.; Orlove, B. S.; Diane Stovall-Soto, G.; Brunacini, J.; Hernandez, T.

2014-12-01

Two science-arts approaches are emerging as effective means to convey "futurethinking" to learners: systems gaming and experiential futures. FutureCoast exemplifies the latter: by engaging participants with voicemails supposedly leaking from the cloud of possible futures, the storymaking game frames the complexities of climate science in relatable contexts. Because participants make the voicemails themselves, FutureCoast opens up creative ways for people to think about possibly climate-changed futures and personal ways to talk about them. FutureCoast is a project of the PoLAR Partnership with a target audience of informal adult learners primarily reached via mobile devices and online platforms. Scientists increasingly use scenarios and storylines as ways to explore the implications of environmental change and societal choices. Stories help people make connections across experiences and disciplines and link large-scale events to personal consequences. By making the future seem real today, FutureCoast's framework helps people visualize and plan for future climate changes. The voicemails contributed to FutureCoast are spread through the game's intended timeframe (2020 through 2065). Based on initial content analysis of voicemail text, common themes include ecosystems and landscapes, weather, technology, societal issues, governance and policy. Other issues somewhat less frequently discussed include security, food, industry and business, health, energy, infrastructure, water, economy, and migration. Further voicemail analysis is examining: temporal dimensions (salient time frames, short vs. long term issues, intergenerational, etc.), content (adaptation vs. mitigation, challenges vs. opportunities, etc.), and emotion (hopeful, resigned, etc. and overall emotional context). FutureCoast also engaged audiences through facilitated in-person experiences, geocaching events, and social media (Tumblr, Twitter, Facebook, YouTube). Analysis of the project suggests story-based games such as FutureCoast can serve as effective, accessible tools for engaging diverse audiences in thinking and talking about future "what if?" scenarios related to climate change and its impacts.

Applicability of the "Frame of Reference" approach for environmental monitoring of offshore renewable energy projects.

PubMed

Garel, Erwan; Rey, Cibran Camba; Ferreira, Oscar; van Koningsveld, Mark

2014-08-01

This paper assesses the applicability of the Frame of Reference (FoR) approach for the environmental monitoring of large-scale offshore Marine Renewable Energy (MRE) projects. The focus is on projects harvesting energy from winds, waves and currents. Environmental concerns induced by MRE projects are reported based on a classification scheme identifying stressors, receptors, effects and impacts. Although the potential effects of stressors on most receptors are identified, there are large knowledge gaps regarding the corresponding (positive and negative) impacts. In that context, the development of offshore MRE requires the implementation of fit-for-purpose monitoring activities aimed at environmental protection and knowledge development. Taking European legislation as an example, it is suggested to adopt standardized monitoring protocols for the enhanced usage and utility of environmental indicators. Towards this objective, the use of the FoR approach is advocated since it provides guidance for the definition and use of coherent set of environmental state indicators. After a description of this framework, various examples of applications are provided considering a virtual MRE project located in European waters. Finally, some conclusions and recommendations are provided for the successful implementation of the FoR approach and for future studies. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Support of an Active Science Project by a Large Information System: Lessons for the EOS Era

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Angelici, Gary L.; Skiles, J. W.; Popovici, Lidia Z.

1993-01-01

The ability of large information systems to support the changing data requirements of active science projects is being tested in a NASA collaborative study. This paper briefly profiles both the active science project and the large information system involved in this effort and offers some observations about the effectiveness of the project support. This is followed by lessons that are important for those participating in large information systems that need to support active science projects or that make available the valuable data produced by these projects. We learned in this work that it is difficult for a large information system focused on long term data management to satisfy the requirements of an on-going science project. For example, in order to provide the best service, it is important for all information system staff to keep focused on the needs and constraints of the scientists in the development of appropriate services. If the lessons learned in this and other science support experiences are not applied by those involved with large information systems of the EOS (Earth Observing System) era, then the final data products produced by future science projects may not be robust or of high quality, thereby making the conduct of the project science less efficacious and reducing the value of these unique suites of data for future research.

Survey of decentralized control methods. [for large scale dynamic systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Athans, M.

1975-01-01

An overview is presented of the types of problems that are being considered by control theorists in the area of dynamic large scale systems with emphasis on decentralized control strategies. Approaches that deal directly with decentralized decision making for large scale systems are discussed. It is shown that future advances in decentralized system theory are intimately connected with advances in the stochastic control problem with nonclassical information pattern. The basic assumptions and mathematical tools associated with the latter are summarized, and recommendations concerning future research are presented.

Impacts of climate variability and future climate change on harmful algal blooms and human health.

PubMed

Moore, Stephanie K; Trainer, Vera L; Mantua, Nathan J; Parker, Micaela S; Laws, Edward A; Backer, Lorraine C; Fleming, Lora E

2008-11-07

Anthropogenically-derived increases in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations have been implicated in recent climate change, and are projected to substantially impact the climate on a global scale in the future. For marine and freshwater systems, increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases are expected to increase surface temperatures, lower pH, and cause changes to vertical mixing, upwelling, precipitation, and evaporation patterns. The potential consequences of these changes for harmful algal blooms (HABs) have received relatively little attention and are not well understood. Given the apparent increase in HABs around the world and the potential for greater problems as a result of climate change and ocean acidification, substantial research is needed to evaluate the direct and indirect associations between HABs, climate change, ocean acidification, and human health. This research will require a multidisciplinary approach utilizing expertise in climatology, oceanography, biology, epidemiology, and other disciplines. We review the interactions between selected patterns of large-scale climate variability and climate change, oceanic conditions, and harmful algae.

Impacts of climate variability and future climate change on harmful algal blooms and human health

PubMed Central

Moore, Stephanie K; Trainer, Vera L; Mantua, Nathan J; Parker, Micaela S; Laws, Edward A; Backer, Lorraine C; Fleming, Lora E

2008-01-01

Anthropogenically-derived increases in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations have been implicated in recent climate change, and are projected to substantially impact the climate on a global scale in the future. For marine and freshwater systems, increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases are expected to increase surface temperatures, lower pH, and cause changes to vertical mixing, upwelling, precipitation, and evaporation patterns. The potential consequences of these changes for harmful algal blooms (HABs) have received relatively little attention and are not well understood. Given the apparent increase in HABs around the world and the potential for greater problems as a result of climate change and ocean acidification, substantial research is needed to evaluate the direct and indirect associations between HABs, climate change, ocean acidification, and human health. This research will require a multidisciplinary approach utilizing expertise in climatology, oceanography, biology, epidemiology, and other disciplines. We review the interactions between selected patterns of large-scale climate variability and climate change, oceanic conditions, and harmful algae. PMID:19025675

Measuring Learners' Attitudes toward Team Projects: Scale Development Through Exploratory And Confirmatory Factor Analyses

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chyung, Seung Youn; Winiecki, Donald J.; Hunt, Gary; Sevier, Carol M.

2017-01-01

Team projects are increasingly used in engineering courses. Students may develop attitudes toward team projects from prior experience, and their attitudinal responses could influence their performance during team project-based learning in the future. Thus, instructors need to measure students' attitudes toward team projects during their learner…

A model ensemble for projecting multi‐decadal coastal cliff retreat during the 21st century

USGS Publications Warehouse

Limber, Patrick; Barnard, Patrick; Vitousek, Sean; Erikson, Li

2018-01-01

Sea cliff retreat rates are expected to accelerate with rising sea levels during the 21st century. Here we develop an approach for a multi‐model ensemble that efficiently projects time‐averaged sea cliff retreat over multi‐decadal time scales and large (>50 km) spatial scales. The ensemble consists of five simple 1‐D models adapted from the literature that relate sea cliff retreat to wave impacts, sea level rise (SLR), historical cliff behavior, and cross‐shore profile geometry. Ensemble predictions are based on Monte Carlo simulations of each individual model, which account for the uncertainty of model parameters. The consensus of the individual models also weights uncertainty, such that uncertainty is greater when predictions from different models do not agree. A calibrated, but unvalidated, ensemble was applied to the 475 km‐long coastline of Southern California (USA), with 4 SLR scenarios of 0.5, 0.93, 1.5, and 2 m by 2100. Results suggest that future retreat rates could increase relative to mean historical rates by more than two‐fold for the higher SLR scenarios, causing an average total land loss of 19 – 41 m by 2100. However, model uncertainty ranges from +/‐ 5 – 15 m, reflecting the inherent difficulties of projecting cliff retreat over multiple decades. To enhance ensemble performance, future work could include weighting each model by its skill in matching observations in different morphological settings

Investigating and Stimulating Primary Teachers' Attitudes Towards Science: Summary of a Large-Scale Research Project

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Walma van der Molen, Juliette; van Aalderen-Smeets, Sandra

2013-01-01

Attention to the attitudes of primary teachers towards science is of fundamental importance to research on primary science education. The current article describes a large-scale research project that aims to overcome three main shortcomings in attitude research, i.e. lack of a strong theoretical concept of attitude, methodological flaws in…

The Peak Structure and Future Changes of the Relationships Between Extreme Precipitation and Temperature

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, Guiling; Wang, Dagang; Trenberth, Kevin E.; Erfanian, Amir; Yu, Miao; Bosilovich, Michael G.; Parr, Dana T.

2017-01-01

Theoretical models predict that, in the absence of moisture limitation, extreme precipitation intensity could exponentially increase with temperatures at a rate determined by the Clausius-Clapeyron (C-C) relationship. Climate models project a continuous increase of precipitation extremes for the twenty-first century over most of the globe. However, some station observations suggest a negative scaling of extreme precipitation with very high temperatures, raising doubts about future increase of precipitation extremes. Here we show for the present-day climate over most of the globe,the curve relating daily precipitation extremes with local temperatures has a peak structure, increasing as expected at the low medium range of temperature variations but decreasing at high temperatures. However, this peak-shaped relationship does not imply a potential upper limit for future precipitation extremes. Climate models project both the peak of extreme precipitation and the temperature at which it peaks (T(sub peak)) will increase with warming; the two increases generally conform to the C-C scaling rate in mid- and high-latitudes,and to a super C-C scaling in most of the tropics. Because projected increases of local mean temperature (T(sub mean)) far exceed projected increases of T(sub peak) over land, the conventional approach of relating extreme precipitation to T(sub mean) produces a misleading sub-C-C scaling rate.

Unravelling the structure of species extinction risk for predictive conservation science.

PubMed

Lee, Tien Ming; Jetz, Walter

2011-05-07

Extinction risk varies across species and space owing to the combined and interactive effects of ecology/life history and geography. For predictive conservation science to be effective, large datasets and integrative models that quantify the relative importance of potential factors and separate rapidly changing from relatively static threat drivers are urgently required. Here, we integrate and map in space the relative and joint effects of key correlates of The International Union for Conservation of Nature-assessed extinction risk for 8700 living birds. Extinction risk varies significantly with species' broad-scale environmental niche, geographical range size, and life-history and ecological traits such as body size, developmental mode, primary diet and foraging height. Even at this broad scale, simple quantifications of past human encroachment across species' ranges emerge as key in predicting extinction risk, supporting the use of land-cover change projections for estimating future threat in an integrative setting. A final joint model explains much of the interspecific variation in extinction risk and provides a remarkably strong prediction of its observed global geography. Our approach unravels the species-level structure underlying geographical gradients in extinction risk and offers a means of disentangling static from changing components of current and future threat. This reconciliation of intrinsic and extrinsic, and of past and future extinction risk factors may offer a critical step towards a more continuous, forward-looking assessment of species' threat status based on geographically explicit environmental change projections, potentially advancing global predictive conservation science.

Multimodal biometrics for identity documents (MBioID).

PubMed

Dessimoz, Damien; Richiardi, Jonas; Champod, Christophe; Drygajlo, Andrzej

2007-04-11

The MBioID initiative has been set up to address the following germane question: What and how biometric technologies could be deployed in identity documents in the foreseeable future? This research effort proposes to look at current and future practices and systems of establishing and using biometric identity documents (IDs) and evaluate their effectiveness in large-scale developments. The first objective of the MBioID project is to present a review document establishing the current state-of-the-art related to the use of multimodal biometrics in an IDs application. This research report gives the main definitions, properties and the framework of use related to biometrics, an overview of the main standards developed in the biometric industry and standardisation organisations to ensure interoperability, as well as some of the legal framework and the issues associated to biometrics such as privacy and personal data protection. The state-of-the-art in terms of technological development is also summarised for a range of single biometric modalities (2D and 3D face, fingerprint, iris, on-line signature and speech), chosen according to ICAO recommendations and availabilities, and for various multimodal approaches. This paper gives a summary of the main elements of that report. The second objective of the MBioID project is to propose relevant acquisition and evaluation protocols for a large-scale deployment of biometric IDs. Combined with the protocols, a multimodal database will be acquired in a realistic way, in order to be as close as possible to a real biometric IDs deployment. In this paper, the issues and solutions related to the acquisition setup are briefly presented.

Present and future connection of Asian-Pacific Oscillation to large-scale atmospheric circulations and East Asian rainfall: results of CMIP5

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Botao; Xu, Ying; Shi, Ying

2018-01-01

The summer Asian-Pacific oscillation (APO), one of the major modes of climate variability over the Asian-Pacific sector, has a pronounced effect on variations of large-scale atmospheric circulations and climate. This study evaluated the capability of 30 state-of-the-art climate models among the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) in simulating its association with the atmospheric circulations over the Asian-Pacific region and the precipitation over East Asia. Furthermore, their future connections under the RCP8.5 scenario were examined. The evaluation results show that 5 out of 30 climate models can well capture the observed APO-related features in a comprehensive way, including the strengthened South Asian high (SAH), deepened North Pacific trough (NPT) and northward East Asian jet (EAJ) in the upper troposphere; an intensification of the Asian low and the North Pacific subtropical high (NPSH) as well as a northward shift of the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) in the lower troposphere; and a decrease in East Asian summer rainfall (EASR) under the positive APO phase. Based on the five CMIP5 models' simulations, the dynamic linkages of the APO to the SAH, NPT, AL, and NPSH are projected to maintain during the second half of the twenty-first century. However, its connection with the EASR tends to reduce significantly. Such a reduction might result from the weakening of the linkage of the APO to the meridional displacement of the EAJ and WPSH as a response to the warming scenario.

Back to the future: using historical climate variation to project near-term shifts in habitat suitable for coast redwood.

PubMed

Fernández, Miguel; Hamilton, Healy H; Kueppers, Lara M

2015-11-01

Studies that model the effect of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems often use climate projections from downscaled global climate models (GCMs). These simulations are generally too coarse to capture patterns of fine-scale climate variation, such as the sharp coastal energy and moisture gradients associated with wind-driven upwelling of cold water. Coastal upwelling may limit future increases in coastal temperatures, compromising GCMs' ability to provide realistic scenarios of future climate in these coastal ecosystems. Taking advantage of naturally occurring variability in the high-resolution historic climatic record, we developed multiple fine-scale scenarios of California climate that maintain coherent relationships between regional climate and coastal upwelling. We compared these scenarios against coarse resolution GCM projections at a regional scale to evaluate their temporal equivalency. We used these historically based scenarios to estimate potential suitable habitat for coast redwood (Sequoia sempervirens D. Don) under 'normal' combinations of temperature and precipitation, and under anomalous combinations representative of potential future climates. We found that a scenario of warmer temperature with historically normal precipitation is equivalent to climate projected by GCMs for California by 2020-2030 and that under these conditions, climatically suitable habitat for coast redwood significantly contracts at the southern end of its current range. Our results suggest that historical climate data provide a high-resolution alternative to downscaled GCM outputs for near-term ecological forecasts. This method may be particularly useful in other regions where local climate is strongly influenced by ocean-atmosphere dynamics that are not represented by coarse-scale GCMs. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Habitat Restoration and Monitoring in Urban Streams: The Case of Tryon Creek in Portland, OR

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rios Touma, B. P.; Prescott, C.; Axtell, S.; Kondolf, G. M.

2013-12-01

Habitat enhancement in urban streams can be important for threatened species but challenging, because of altered catchment hydrology and urban encroachment on floodplains and channel banks. In Portland (OR) restoration actions have been undertaken at the watershed scale (e.g.: storm water management, protection of sites with high watershed value) to improve water quality, and at reach scale, when water quality and quantity are adequate, to increase habitat heterogeneity and stabilize banks. To evaluate reach-scale restoration projects in the Tryon Creek watershed, we sampled benthic macroinvertebrates and conducted habitat quality surveys pre-project and over 4 years post- project. Species sensitive to pollution and diversity of trophic groups increased after restoration. Although taxonomical diversity increased after restoration, but was still low compared to reference streams. We found no significant changes in trait proportions and functional diversity. Functional diversity, proportion of shredders and semivoltine invertebrates were significantly higher in reference streams than the restored stream reaches. We hypothesized that inputs of coarse particulate organic matter and land use at watershed scale may explain the differences in biodiversity between restored and reference stream reaches. Variables such as substrate composition, canopy cover or large wood pieces did not change from pre- to post-project, so could not explain the changes in the community. This may have been partly attributable to insensitivity of the visual estimate methods used, but likely also reflects an importance influence of watershed variables on aquatic biota - suggesting watershed actions may be more effective for the ecological recovery of streams. For future projects, we recommend multihabitat benthic sampling supported by studies of channel geomorphology to better understand stream response to restoration actions.

A scenario framework to explore the future migration and adaptation in deltas: A multi-scale and participatory approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kebede, Abiy S.; Nicholls, Robert J.; Allan, Andrew; Arto, Inaki; Cazcarro, Ignacio; Fernandes, Jose A.; Hill, Chris T.; Hutton, Craig W.; Kay, Susan; Lawn, Jon; Lazar, Attila N.; Whitehead, Paul W.

2017-04-01

Coastal deltas are home for over 500 million people globally, and they have been identified as one of the most vulnerable coastal environments during the 21st century. They are susceptible to multiple climatic (e.g., sea-level rise, storm surges, change in temperature and precipitation) and socio-economic (e.g., human-induced subsidence, population and urbanisation changes, GDP growth) drivers of change. These drivers also operate at multiple scales, ranging from local to global and short- to long-term. This highlights the complex challenges deltas face in terms of both their long-term sustainability as well as the well-being of their residents and the health of ecosystems that support the livelihood of large (often very poor) population under uncertain changing conditions. A holistic understanding of these challenges and the potential impacts of future climate and socio-economic changes is central for devising robust adaptation policies. Scenario analysis has long been identified as a strategic management tool to explore future climate change and its impacts for supporting robust decision-making under uncertainty. This work presents the overall scenario framework, methodology, and processes adopted for the development of scenarios in the DECCMA* project. DECCMA is analysing the future of three deltas in South Asia and West Africa: (i) the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) delta (Bangladesh/India), (ii) the Mahanadi delta (India), and (iii) the Volta delta (Ghana). This includes comparisons between these three deltas. Hence, the scenario framework comprises a multi-scale hybrid approach, with six levels of scenario considerations: (i) global (climate change, e.g., sea-level rise, temperature change; and socio-economic assumptions, e.g., population and urbanisation changes, GDP growth); (ii) regional catchments (e.g., river flow modelling), (iii) regional seas (e.g., fisheries modelling), (iv) regional politics (e.g., transboundary disputes), (v) national (e.g., socio-economic factors), and (vi) delta-scale (e.g., future adaptation and migration policies) scenarios. The framework includes and combines expert-based and participatory approaches and provides improved specification of the role of scenarios to analyse the future state of adaptation and migration across the three deltas. It facilitates the development of appropriate and consistent endogenous and exogenous scenario futures: (i) at the delta-scale, (ii) across all deltas, and (iii) with wider climate change, environmental change, and adaptation & migration research. Key words: Coastal deltas, sea-level rise, migration and adaptation, multi-scale scenarios, participatory approach *DECCMA (Deltas, Vulnerability & Climate Change: Migration & Adaptation) project is part of the Collaborative ADAPTATION Research Initiative in Africa and Asia (CARIAA), with financial support from the UK Government's Department for International Development (DFID) and the International Development Research Centre (IDRC), Canada.

Human Y chromosome copy number variation in the next generation sequencing era and beyond.

PubMed

Massaia, Andrea; Xue, Yali

2017-05-01

The human Y chromosome provides a fertile ground for structural rearrangements owing to its haploidy and high content of repeated sequences. The methodologies used for copy number variation (CNV) studies have developed over the years. Low-throughput techniques based on direct observation of rearrangements were developed early on, and are still used, often to complement array-based or sequencing approaches which have limited power in regions with high repeat content and specifically in the presence of long, identical repeats, such as those found in human sex chromosomes. Some specific rearrangements have been investigated for decades; because of their effects on fertility, or their outstanding evolutionary features, the interest in these has not diminished. However, following the flourishing of large-scale genomics, several studies have investigated CNVs across the whole chromosome. These studies sometimes employ data generated within large genomic projects such as the DDD study or the 1000 Genomes Project, and often survey large samples of healthy individuals without any prior selection. Novel technologies based on sequencing long molecules and combinations of technologies, promise to stimulate the study of Y-CNVs in the immediate future.

Astronomical Optical Interferometry. I. Methods and Instrumentation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jankov, S.

2010-12-01

Previous decade has seen an achievement of large interferometric projects including 8-10m telescopes and 100m class baselines. Modern computer and control technology has enabled the interferometric combination of light from separate telescopes also in the visible and infrared regimes. Imaging with milli-arcsecond (mas) resolution and astrometry with micro-arcsecond (muas) precision have thus become reality. Here, I review the methods and instrumentation corresponding to the current state in the field of astronomical optical interferometry. First, this review summarizes the development from the pioneering works of Fizeau and Michelson. Next, the fundamental observables are described, followed by the discussion of the basic design principles of modern interferometers. The basic interferometric techniques such as speckle and aperture masking interferometry, aperture synthesis and nulling interferometry are disscused as well. Using the experience of past and existing facilities to illustrate important points, I consider particularly the new generation of large interferometers that has been recently commissioned (most notably, the CHARA, Keck, VLT and LBT Interferometers). Finally, I discuss the longer-term future of optical interferometry, including the possibilities of new large-scale ground-based projects and prospects for space interferometry.

Contributions to the NUCLEI SciDAC-3 Project

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bogner, Scott; Nazarewicz, Witek

This is the Final Report for Michigan State University for the NUCLEI SciDAC-3 project. The NUCLEI project, as defined by the scope of work, has developed, implemented and run codes for large-scale computations of many topics in low-energy nuclear physics. Physics studied included the properties of nuclei and nuclear decays, nuclear structure and reactions, and the properties of nuclear matter. The computational techniques used included Configuration Interaction, Coupled Cluster, and Density Functional methods. The research program emphasized areas of high interest to current and possible future DOE nuclear physics facilities, including ATLAS at ANL and FRIB at MSU (nuclear structuremore » and reactions, and nuclear astrophysics), TJNAF (neutron distributions in nuclei, few body systems, and electroweak processes), NIF (thermonuclear reactions), MAJORANA and FNPB (neutrinoless double-beta decay and physics beyond the Standard Model), and LANSCE (fission studies).« less

The influence of climate change on Tanzania's hydropower sustainability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sperna Weiland, Frederiek; Boehlert, Brent; Meijer, Karen; Schellekens, Jaap; Magnell, Jan-Petter; Helbrink, Jakob; Kassana, Leonard; Liden, Rikard

2015-04-01

Economic costs induced by current climate variability are large for Tanzania and may further increase due to future climate change. The Tanzanian National Climate Change Strategy addressed the need for stabilization of hydropower generation and strengthening of water resources management. Increased hydropower generation can contribute to sustainable use of energy resources and stabilization of the national electricity grid. To support Tanzania the World Bank financed this study in which the impact of climate change on the water resources and related hydropower generation capacity of Tanzania is assessed. To this end an ensemble of 78 GCM projections from both the CMIP3 and CMIP5 datasets was bias-corrected and down-scaled to 0.5 degrees resolution following the BCSD technique using the Princeton Global Meteorological Forcing Dataset as a reference. To quantify the hydrological impacts of climate change by 2035 the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB was set-up for Tanzania at a resolution of 3 minutes and run with all 78 GCM datasets. From the full set of projections a probable (median) and worst case scenario (95th percentile) were selected based upon (1) the country average Climate Moisture Index and (2) discharge statistics of relevance to hydropower generation. Although precipitation from the Princeton dataset shows deviations from local station measurements and the global hydrological model does not perfectly reproduce local scale hydrographs, the main discharge characteristics and precipitation patterns are represented well. The modeled natural river flows were adjusted for water demand and irrigation within the water resources model RIBASIM (both historical values and future scenarios). Potential hydropower capacity was assessed with the power market simulation model PoMo-C that considers both reservoir inflows obtained from RIBASIM and overall electricity generation costs. Results of the study show that climate change is unlikely to negatively affect the average potential of future hydropower production; it will likely make hydropower more profitable. Yet, the uncertainty in climate change projections remains large and risks are significant, adaptation strategies should ideally consider a worst case scenario to ensure robust power generation. Overall a diversified power generation portfolio, anchored in hydropower and supported by other renewables and fossil fuel-based energy sources, is the best solution for Tanzania

An imperative need for global change research in tropical forests.

PubMed

Zhou, Xuhui; Fu, Yuling; Zhou, Lingyan; Li, Bo; Luo, Yiqi

2013-09-01

Tropical forests play a crucial role in regulating regional and global climate dynamics, and model projections suggest that rapid climate change may result in forest dieback or savannization. However, these predictions are largely based on results from leaf-level studies. How tropical forests respond and feedback to climate change is largely unknown at the ecosystem level. Several complementary approaches have been used to evaluate the effects of climate change on tropical forests, but the results are conflicting, largely due to confounding effects of multiple factors. Although altered precipitation and nitrogen deposition experiments have been conducted in tropical forests, large-scale warming and elevated carbon dioxide (CO2) manipulations are completely lacking, leaving many hypotheses and model predictions untested. Ecosystem-scale experiments to manipulate temperature and CO2 concentration individually or in combination are thus urgently needed to examine their main and interactive effects on tropical forests. Such experiments will provide indispensable data and help gain essential knowledge on biogeochemical, hydrological and biophysical responses and feedbacks of tropical forests to climate change. These datasets can also inform regional and global models for predicting future states of tropical forests and climate systems. The success of such large-scale experiments in natural tropical forests will require an international framework to coordinate collaboration so as to meet the challenges in cost, technological infrastructure and scientific endeavor.

SUBTASK 2.19 – OPERATIONAL FLEXIBILITY OF CO2 TRANSPORT AND STORAGE

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jensen, Melanie; Schlasner, Steven; Sorensen, James

2014-12-31

Carbon dioxide (CO2) is produced in large quantities during electricity generation and by industrial processes. These CO2 streams vary in terms of both composition and mass flow rate, sometimes substantially. The impact of a varying CO2 stream on pipeline and storage operation is not fully understood in terms of either operability or infrastructure robustness. This study was performed to summarize basic background from the literature on the topic of operational flexibility of CO2 transport and storage, but the primary focus was on compiling real-world lessons learned about flexible operation of CO2 pipelines and storage from both large-scale field demonstrations andmore » commercial operating experience. Modeling and pilot-scale results of research in this area were included to illustrate some of the questions that exist relative to operation of carbon capture and storage (CCS) projects with variable CO2 streams. It is hoped that this report’s real-world findings provide readers with useful information on the topic of transport and storage of variable CO2 streams. The real-world results were obtained from two sources. The first source consisted of five full-scale, commercial transport–storage projects: Sleipner, Snøhvit, In Salah, Weyburn, and Illinois Basin–Decatur. These scenarios were reviewed to determine the information that is available about CO2 stream variability/intermittency on these demonstration-scale projects. The five projects all experienced mass flow variability or an interruption in flow. In each case, pipeline and/or injection engineers were able to accommodate any issues that arose. Significant variability in composition has not been an issue at these five sites. The second source of real- world results was telephone interviews conducted with experts in CO2 pipeline transport, injection, and storage during which commercial anecdotal information was acquired to augment that found during the literature search of the five full-scale projects. The experts represented a range of disciplines and hailed from North America and Europe. Major findings of the study are that compression and transport of CO2 for enhanced oil recovery (EOR) purposes in the United States has shown that impurities are not likely to cause transport problems if CO2 stream composition standards are maintained and pressures are kept at 10.3 MPa or higher. Cyclic, or otherwise intermittent, CO2 supplies historically have not impacted in-field distribution pipeline networks, wellbore integrity, or reservoir conditions. The U.S. EOR industry has demonstrated that it is possible to adapt to variability and intermittency in CO2 supply through flexible operation of the pipeline and geologic storage facility. This CO2 transport and injection experience represents knowledge that can be applied in future CCS projects. A number of gaps in knowledge were identified that may benefit from future research and development, further enhancing the possibility for widespread application of CCS. This project was funded through the Energy & Environmental Research Center–U.S. Department of Energy Joint Program on Research and Development for Fossil Energy-Related Resources Cooperative Agreement No. DE-FC26-08NT43291. Nonfederal funding was provided by the IEA Greenhouse Gas R&D Programme.« less

Downscaling climate model output for water resources impacts assessment (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maurer, E. P.; Pierce, D. W.; Cayan, D. R.

2013-12-01

Water agencies in the U.S. and around the globe are beginning to wrap climate change projections into their planning procedures, recognizing that ongoing human-induced changes to hydrology can affect water management in significant ways. Future hydrology changes are derived using global climate model (GCM) projections, though their output is at a spatial scale that is too coarse to meet the needs of those concerned with local and regional impacts. Those investigating local impacts have employed a range of techniques for downscaling, the process of translating GCM output to a more locally-relevant spatial scale. Recent projects have produced libraries of publicly-available downscaled climate projections, enabling managers, researchers and others to focus on impacts studies, drawing from a shared pool of fine-scale climate data. Besides the obvious advantage to data users, who no longer need to develop expertise in downscaling prior to examining impacts, the use of the downscaled data by hundreds of people has allowed a crowdsourcing approach to examining the data. The wide variety of applications employed by different users has revealed characteristics not discovered during the initial data set production. This has led to a deeper look at the downscaling methods, including the assumptions and effect of bias correction of GCM output. Here new findings are presented related to the assumption of stationarity in the relationships between large- and fine-scale climate, as well as the impact of quantile mapping bias correction on precipitation trends. The validity of these assumptions can influence the interpretations of impacts studies using data derived using these standard statistical methods and help point the way to improved methods.

The impact of large-scale, long-term optical surveys on pulsating star research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soszyński, Igor

2017-09-01

The era of large-scale photometric variability surveys began a quarter of a century ago, when three microlensing projects - EROS, MACHO, and OGLE - started their operation. These surveys initiated a revolution in the field of variable stars and in the next years they inspired many new observational projects. Large-scale optical surveys multiplied the number of variable stars known in the Universe. The huge, homogeneous and complete catalogs of pulsating stars, such as Cepheids, RR Lyrae stars, or long-period variables, offer an unprecedented opportunity to calibrate and test the accuracy of various distance indicators, to trace the three-dimensional structure of the Milky Way and other galaxies, to discover exotic types of intrinsically variable stars, or to study previously unknown features and behaviors of pulsators. We present historical and recent findings on various types of pulsating stars obtained from the optical large-scale surveys, with particular emphasis on the OGLE project which currently offers the largest photometric database among surveys for stellar variability.

Climate change impacts on risks of groundwater pollution by herbicides: a regional scale assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steffens, Karin; Moeys, Julien; Lindström, Bodil; Kreuger, Jenny; Lewan, Elisabet; Jarvis, Nick

2014-05-01

Groundwater contributes nearly half of the Swedish drinking water supply, which therefore needs to be protected both under present and future climate conditions. Pesticides are sometimes found in Swedish groundwater in concentrations exceeding the EU-drinking water limit and thus constitute a threat. The aim of this study was to assess the present and future risks of groundwater pollution at the regional scale by currently approved herbicides. We identified representative combinations of major crop types and their specific herbicide usage (product, dose and application timing) based on long-term monitoring data from two agricultural catchments in the South-West of Sweden. All these combinations were simulated with the regional version of the pesticide fate model MACRO (called MACRO-SE) for the periods 1970-1999 and 2070-2099 for a major crop production region in South West Sweden. To represent the uncertainty in future climate data, we applied a five-member ensemble based on different climate model projections downscaled with the RCA3-model (Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute). In addition to the direct impacts of changes in the climate, the risks of herbicide leaching in the future will also be affected by likely changes in weed pressure and land use and management practices (e.g. changes in crop rotations and application timings). To assess the relative importance of such factors we performed a preliminary sensitivity analysis which provided us with a hierarchical structure for constructing future herbicide use scenarios for the regional scale model runs. The regional scale analysis gave average concentrations of herbicides leaching to groundwater for a large number of combinations of soils, crops and compounds. The results showed that future scenarios for herbicide use (more autumn-sown crops, more frequent multiple applications on one crop, and a shift from grassland to arable crops such as maize) imply significantly greater risks of herbicide leaching to groundwater in a changing climate, and that these indirect effects outweigh the direct effects of changes in climate driving variables. Due to the large uncertainties in climate change impact assessments, drawing firm conclusions is not possible, but this type of analysis provides indications of likely future concerns and can be used as an early-warning tool to inform the general public, responsible public authorities and decision makers.

Signal to noise quantification of regional climate projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, S.; Rupp, D. E.; Mote, P.

2016-12-01

One of the biggest challenges in interpreting climate model outputs for impacts studies and adaptation planning is understanding the sources of disagreement among models (which is often used imperfectly as a stand-in for system uncertainty). Internal variability is a primary source of uncertainty in climate projections, especially for precipitation, for which models disagree about even the sign of changes in large areas like the continental US. Taking advantage of a large initial-condition ensemble of regional climate simulations, this study quantifies the magnitude of changes forced by increasing greenhouse gas concentrations relative to internal variability. Results come from a large initial-condition ensemble of regional climate model simulations generated by weather@home, a citizen science computing platform, where the western United States climate was simulated for the recent past (1985-2014) and future (2030-2059) using a 25-km horizontal resolution regional climate model (HadRM3P) nested in global atmospheric model (HadAM3P). We quantify grid point level signal-to-noise not just in temperature and precipitation responses, but also the energy and moisture flux terms that are related to temperature and precipitation responses, to provide important insights regarding uncertainty in climate change projections at local and regional scales. These results will aid modelers in determining appropriate ensemble sizes for different climate variables and help users of climate model output with interpreting climate model projections.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Neufeld, W.P.

Recently, the Trend Analysis Program (TAP) of the American Council of Life Insurance commissioned the Futures Group of Glastonbury, Connecticut, to examine the potential for large-scale catastrophic events in the near future. TAP was specifically concerned with five potential crises: the warming of the earth's atmosphere, the water shortage, the collapse of the physical infrastructure, the global financial crisis, and the threat of nuclear war. We are often unprepared to take action; in these cases, we lose an advantage we might have otherwise had. This is the whole idea behind forecasting: to foresee possibilities and to project how we canmore » respond. If we are able to create forecasts against which we can test policy options and choices, we may have the luxury of adopting policies ahead of events. Rather than simply fighting fires, we have the option of creating a future more to our choosing. Short descriptions of these five potential crises and, in some cases, possible solutions are presented.« less

Simulating the impact of the large-scale circulation on the 2-m temperature and precipitation climatology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bowden, Jared H.; Nolte, Christopher G.; Otte, Tanya L.

2013-04-01

The impact of the simulated large-scale atmospheric circulation on the regional climate is examined using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model as a regional climate model. The purpose is to understand the potential need for interior grid nudging for dynamical downscaling of global climate model (GCM) output for air quality applications under a changing climate. In this study we downscale the NCEP-Department of Energy Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP-II) Reanalysis using three continuous 20-year WRF simulations: one simulation without interior grid nudging and two using different interior grid nudging methods. The biases in 2-m temperature and precipitation for the simulation without interior grid nudging are unreasonably large with respect to the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) over the eastern half of the contiguous United States (CONUS) during the summer when air quality concerns are most relevant. This study examines how these differences arise from errors in predicting the large-scale atmospheric circulation. It is demonstrated that the Bermuda high, which strongly influences the regional climate for much of the eastern half of the CONUS during the summer, is poorly simulated without interior grid nudging. In particular, two summers when the Bermuda high was west (1993) and east (2003) of its climatological position are chosen to illustrate problems in the large-scale atmospheric circulation anomalies. For both summers, WRF without interior grid nudging fails to simulate the placement of the upper-level anticyclonic (1993) and cyclonic (2003) circulation anomalies. The displacement of the large-scale circulation impacts the lower atmosphere moisture transport and precipitable water, affecting the convective environment and precipitation. Using interior grid nudging improves the large-scale circulation aloft and moisture transport/precipitable water anomalies, thereby improving the simulated 2-m temperature and precipitation. The results demonstrate that constraining the RCM to the large-scale features in the driving fields improves the overall accuracy of the simulated regional climate, and suggest that in the absence of such a constraint, the RCM will likely misrepresent important large-scale shifts in the atmospheric circulation under a future climate.

How to meet the increasing demands of water, food and energy in the future?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, Haiyun; Chen, Ji; Sivakumar, Bellie; Peart, Mervyn

2017-04-01

Regarded as a driving force in water, food and energy demands, the world's population has been increasing rapidly since the beginning of the 20th century. According to the medium-growth projection scenario of the United Nations, the world's population will reach 9.5 billion by 2050. In response to the continuously growing population during this century, water, food and energy demands have also been increasing rapidly, and social problems (e.g., water, food, and energy shortages) will be most likely to occur, especially if no proper management strategies are adopted. Then, how to meet the increasing demands of water, food and energy in the future? This study focuses on the sustainable developments of population, water, food, energy and dams, and the significances of this study can be concluded as follows: First, we reveal the close association between dams and social development through analysing the related data for the period 1960-2010, and argue that construction of additional large dams will have to be considered as one of the best available options to meet the increasing water, food and energy demands in the future. We conduct the projections of global water, food and energy consumptions and dam development for the period 2010-2050, and the results show that, compared to 2010, the total water, food and energy consumptions in 2050 will increase by 20%, 34% and 37%, respectively. Moreover, it is projected that additional 4,340 dams will be constructed by 2050 all over the world. Second, we analyse the current situation of global water scarcity based on the related data representing water resources availability (per capita available water resources), dam development (the number of dams), and the level of economic development (per capita gross domestic product). At the global scale, water scarcity exists in more than 70% of the countries around the world, including 43 countries suffering from economic water scarcity and 129 countries suffering from physical water scarcity. At the continental scale, most countries of Africa, the south and west Asia, and the central Europe are suffering from water scarcity. Third, with comprehensive consideration of population growth as the major driving force, water resources availability as the basic supporting factor, and topography as the important constraint, we address the question of future dam development and predict the locations of future large dams around the world. The results show that there will be 1,433 large dams built in the future, mainly in the Tibet Plateau and the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau in Asia, the East African Plateau and the western part of Africa, the Andes Mountains and the Brazilian Plateau region in South America, the Rocky Mountains in North America, the Alps in Europe, and the Murray-Darling Basin in Oceania. Taking into account of the current situation of global water scarcity, these large dams are most likely to be constructed in countries that have abundant total available water resources or per capita available water resources, no matter whether they are experiencing "economic water scarcity" or have sufficient financial support.

Monitoring Snow and Land Ice Using Satellite data in the GMES Project CryoLand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bippus, Gabriele; Nagler, Thomas

2013-04-01

The main objectives of the project "CryoLand - GMES Service Snow and Land Ice" are to develop, implement and validate services for snow, glaciers and lake and river ice products as a Downstream Service within the Global Monitoring for Environment and Security (GMES) program of the European Commission. CryoLand exploits Earth Observation data from current optical and microwave sensors and of the upcoming GMES Sentinel satellite family. The project prepares also the basis for the cryospheric component of the GMES Land Monitoring services. The CryoLand project team consists of 10 partner organisations from Austria, Finland, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland and Romania and is funded by the 7th Framework Program of the European Commission. The CryoLand baseline products for snow include fractional snow extent from optical satellite data, the extent of melting snow from SAR data, and coarse resolution snow water equivalent maps from passive microwave data. Experimental products include maps of snow surface wetness and temperature. The products range from large scale coverage at medium resolution to regional products with high resolution, in order to address a wide user community. Medium resolution optical data (e.g. MODIS, in the near future Sentinel-3) and SAR (ENVISAT ASAR, in the near future Sentinel-1) are the main sources of EO data for generating large scale products in near real time. For generation of regional products high resolution satellite data are used. Glacier products are based on high resolution optical (e.g. SPOT-5, in the near future Sentinel-2) and SAR (TerraSAR-X, in the near future Sentinel-1) data and include glacier outlines, mapping of glacier facies, glacier lakes and ice velocity. The glacier products are generated on users demand. Current test areas are located in the Alps, Norway, Greenland and the Himalayan Mountains. The lake and river ice products include ice extent and its temporal changes and snow extent on ice. The algorithms for these products are in development. One major task of CryoLand is the performance assessment of the products, which is carried out in different environments, climate zones and land cover types, selected jointly with users. Accuracy assessment is done for test areas using in-situ data and very high resolution satellite data. This presentation gives an overview on the processing lines and demonstration products for snow, glacier and lake ice parameters including examples of the product accuracy assessment. An important point of the CryoLand project is the use of advanced information technology, which is applied to process and distribute snow and land ice products in near real time.

Changing vessel routes could significantly reduce the cost of future offshore wind projects.

PubMed

Samoteskul, Kateryna; Firestone, Jeremy; Corbett, James; Callahan, John

2014-08-01

With the recent emphasis on offshore wind energy Coastal and Marine Spatial Planning (CMSP) has become one of the main frameworks used to plan and manage the increasingly complex web of ocean and coastal uses. As wind development becomes more prevalent, existing users of the ocean space, such as commercial shippers, will be compelled to share their historically open-access waters with these projects. Here, we demonstrate the utility of using cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) to support siting decisions within a CMSP framework. In this study, we assume that large-scale offshore wind development will take place in the US Mid-Atlantic within the next decades. We then evaluate whether building projects nearshore or far from shore would be more cost-effective. Building projects nearshore is assumed to require rerouting of the commercial vessel traffic traveling between the US Mid-Atlantic ports by an average of 18.5 km per trip. We focus on less than 1500 transits by large deep-draft vessels. We estimate that over 29 years of the study, commercial shippers would incur an additional $0.2 billion (in 2012$) in direct and indirect costs. Building wind projects closer to shore where vessels used to transit would generate approximately $13.4 billion (in 2012$) in savings. Considering the large cost savings, modifying areas where vessels transit needs to be included in the portfolio of policies used to support the growth of the offshore wind industry in the US. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An Automated Method for Identifying Inconsistencies within Diagrammatic Software Requirements Specifications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zhang, Zhong

1997-01-01

The development of large-scale, composite software in a geographically distributed environment is an evolutionary process. Often, in such evolving systems, striving for consistency is complicated by many factors, because development participants have various locations, skills, responsibilities, roles, opinions, languages, terminology and different degrees of abstraction they employ. This naturally leads to many partial specifications or viewpoints. These multiple views on the system being developed usually overlap. From another aspect, these multiple views give rise to the potential for inconsistency. Existing CASE tools do not efficiently manage inconsistencies in distributed development environment for a large-scale project. Based on the ViewPoints framework the WHERE (Web-Based Hypertext Environment for requirements Evolution) toolkit aims to tackle inconsistency management issues within geographically distributed software development projects. Consequently, WHERE project helps make more robust software and support software assurance process. The long term goal of WHERE tools aims to the inconsistency analysis and management in requirements specifications. A framework based on Graph Grammar theory and TCMJAVA toolkit is proposed to detect inconsistencies among viewpoints. This systematic approach uses three basic operations (UNION, DIFFERENCE, INTERSECTION) to study the static behaviors of graphic and tabular notations. From these operations, subgraphs Query, Selection, Merge, Replacement operations can be derived. This approach uses graph PRODUCTIONS (rewriting rules) to study the dynamic transformations of graphs. We discuss the feasibility of implementation these operations. Also, We present the process of porting original TCM (Toolkit for Conceptual Modeling) project from C++ to Java programming language in this thesis. A scenario based on NASA International Space Station Specification is discussed to show the applicability of our approach. Finally, conclusion and future work about inconsistency management issues in WHERE project will be summarized.

Changes of tropical cyclone landfalls in South China throughout the twenty-first century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lok, Charlie C. F.; Chan, Johnny C. L.

2017-12-01

The nested regional climate/mesoscale modelling system developed by the authors is applied to the Hadley Centre Global Environment Model version 2-Earth System global model outputs to project future changes of landfalling tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the South China region. Results show that the modelling system is capable of reproducing the current TC landfall climatology, although it exhibits a noticeable southward bias of TC activity of in the western North Pacific. Future projections show a continuous northward migration of TC activity in the western North Pacific throughout the twenty-first century. Fewer TCs making landfall in South China are projected in the late century, but these landfalling TCs tend to be more intense. Investigations in the large-scale environment suggest that despite warmer sea surface temperature and weaker vertical wind shear, the drier and less cyclonic lower atmosphere all-season is responsible for the reduced TC activity. However, once a TC is formed, the environment it stays in is as wet as today and so it can intensify further than the present-day TCs. Inter-annual variability is also explored, and the influence of the ENSO variation appears to be smaller.

Predicting potential global distributions of two Miscanthus grasses: implications for horticulture, biofuel production, and biological invasions.

PubMed

Hager, Heather A; Sinasac, Sarah E; Gedalof, Ze'ev; Newman, Jonathan A

2014-01-01

In many regions, large proportions of the naturalized and invasive non-native floras were originally introduced deliberately by humans. Pest risk assessments are now used in many jurisdictions to regulate the importation of species and usually include an estimation of the potential distribution in the import area. Two species of Asian grass (Miscanthus sacchariflorus and M. sinensis) that were originally introduced to North America as ornamental plants have since escaped cultivation. These species and their hybrid offspring are now receiving attention for large-scale production as biofuel crops in North America and elsewhere. We evaluated their potential global climate suitability for cultivation and potential invasion using the niche model CLIMEX and evaluated the models' sensitivity to the parameter values. We then compared the sensitivity of projections of future climatically suitable area under two climate models and two emissions scenarios. The models indicate that the species have been introduced to most of the potential global climatically suitable areas in the northern but not the southern hemisphere. The more narrowly distributed species (M. sacchariflorus) is more sensitive to changes in model parameters, which could have implications for modelling species of conservation concern. Climate projections indicate likely contractions in potential range in the south, but expansions in the north, particularly in introduced areas where biomass production trials are under way. Climate sensitivity analysis shows that projections differ more between the selected climate change models than between the selected emissions scenarios. Local-scale assessments are required to overlay suitable habitat with climate projections to estimate areas of cultivation potential and invasion risk.

Dominant forest tree species are potentially vulnerable to climate change over large portions of their range even at high latitudes

PubMed Central

de Blois, Sylvie

2016-01-01

Projecting suitable conditions for a species as a function of future climate provides a reasonable, although admittedly imperfect, spatially explicit estimate of species vulnerability associated with climate change. Projections emphasizing range shifts at continental scale, however, can mask contrasting patterns at local or regional scale where management and policy decisions are made. Moreover, models usually show potential for areas to become climatically unsuitable, remain suitable, or become suitable for a particular species with climate change, but each of these outcomes raises markedly different ecological and management issues. Managing forest decline at sites where climatic stress is projected to increase is likely to be the most immediate challenge resulting from climate change. Here we assess habitat suitability with climate change for five dominant tree species of eastern North American forests, focusing on areas of greatest vulnerability (loss of suitability in the baseline range) in Quebec (Canada) rather than opportunities (increase in suitability). Results show that these species are at risk of maladaptation over a remarkably large proportion of their baseline range. Depending on species, 5–21% of currently climatically suitable habitats are projected to be at risk of becoming unsuitable. This suggests that species that have traditionally defined whole regional vegetation assemblages could become less adapted to these regions, with significant impact on ecosystems and forest economy. In spite of their well-recognised limitations and the uncertainty that remains, regionally-explicit risk assessment approaches remain one of the best options to convey that message and the need for climate policies and forest management adaptation strategies. PMID:27478706

Dominant forest tree species are potentially vulnerable to climate change over large portions of their range even at high latitudes.

PubMed

Périé, Catherine; de Blois, Sylvie

2016-01-01

Projecting suitable conditions for a species as a function of future climate provides a reasonable, although admittedly imperfect, spatially explicit estimate of species vulnerability associated with climate change. Projections emphasizing range shifts at continental scale, however, can mask contrasting patterns at local or regional scale where management and policy decisions are made. Moreover, models usually show potential for areas to become climatically unsuitable, remain suitable, or become suitable for a particular species with climate change, but each of these outcomes raises markedly different ecological and management issues. Managing forest decline at sites where climatic stress is projected to increase is likely to be the most immediate challenge resulting from climate change. Here we assess habitat suitability with climate change for five dominant tree species of eastern North American forests, focusing on areas of greatest vulnerability (loss of suitability in the baseline range) in Quebec (Canada) rather than opportunities (increase in suitability). Results show that these species are at risk of maladaptation over a remarkably large proportion of their baseline range. Depending on species, 5-21% of currently climatically suitable habitats are projected to be at risk of becoming unsuitable. This suggests that species that have traditionally defined whole regional vegetation assemblages could become less adapted to these regions, with significant impact on ecosystems and forest economy. In spite of their well-recognised limitations and the uncertainty that remains, regionally-explicit risk assessment approaches remain one of the best options to convey that message and the need for climate policies and forest management adaptation strategies.

Current and Future Urban Stormwater Flooding Scenarios in the Southeast Florida Coasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huq, E.; Abdul-Aziz, O. I.

2016-12-01

This study computed rainfall-fed stormwater flooding under the historical and future reference scenarios for the Southeast Coasts Basin of Florida. A large-scale, mechanistic rainfall-runoff model was developed using the U.S. E.P.A. Storm Water Management Model (SWMM 5.1). The model parameterized important processes of urban hydrology, groundwater, and sea level, while including hydroclimatological variables and land use features. The model was calibrated and validated with historical streamflow data. It was then used to estimate the sensitivity of stormwater runoff to the reference changes in hydroclimatological variables (rainfall and evapotranspiration) and different land use/land cover features (imperviousness, roughness). Furthermore, historical (1970-2000) and potential 2050s stormwater budgets were also estimated for the Florida Southeast Coasts Basin by incorporating climatic projections from different GCMs and RCMs, as well as by using relevant projections of sea level and land use/cover. Comparative synthesis of the historical and future scenarios along with the results of sensitivity analysis can aid in efficient management of stormwater flooding for the southeast Florida coasts and similar urban centers under a changing regime of climate, sea level, land use/cover and hydrology.

Comparative Synthesis of Current and Future Urban Stormwater Runoff Scenarios in Tampa Bay Basin under a Changing Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khan, M.; Abdul-Aziz, O. I.

2016-12-01

Changes in climatic regimes and basin characteristics such as imperviousness, roughness and land use types would lead to potential changes in stormwater budget. In this study we quantified reference sensitivities of stormwater runoff to the potential climatic and land use/cover changes by developing a large-scale, mechanistic rainfall-runoff model for the Tampa Bay Basin of Florida using the US EPA Storm Water Management Model (SWMM 5.1). Key processes of urban hydrology, its dynamic interactions with groundwater and sea level, hydro-climatic variables and land use/cover characteristics were incorporated within the model. The model was calibrated and validated with historical streamflow data. We then computed the historical (1970-2000) and potential 2050s stormwater budgets for the Tampa Bay Basin. Climatic scenario projected by the global climate models (GCMs) and the regional climate models (RCMs), along with sea level and land use/cover projections, were utilized to anticipate the future stormwater budget. The comparative assessment of current and future stormwater scenario will aid a proactive management of stormwater runoff under a changing climate in the Tampa Bay Basin and similar urban basins around the world.

Projections of water stress based on an ensemble of socioeconomic growth and climate change scenarios: A case study in Asia

DOE PAGES

Fant, Charles; Schlosser, C. Adam; Gao, Xiang; ...

2016-03-30

The sustainability of future water resources is of paramount importance and is affected by many factors, including population, wealth and climate. Inherent in current methods to estimate these factors in the future is the uncertainty of their prediction. In this study, we integrate a large ensemble of scenarios—internally consistent across economics, emissions, climate, and population—to develop a risk portfolio of water stress over a large portion of Asia that includes China, India, and Mainland Southeast Asia in a future with unconstrained emissions. We isolate the effects of socioeconomic growth from the effects of climate change in order to identify themore » primary drivers of stress on water resources. We find that water needs related to socioeconomic changes, which are currently small, are likely to increase considerably in the future, often overshadowing the effect of climate change on levels of water stress. As a result, there is a high risk of severe water stress in densely populated watersheds by 2050, compared to recent history. There is strong evidence to suggest that, in the absence of autonomous adaptation or societal response, a much larger portion of the region’s population will live in water-stressed regions in the near future. Lastly, tools and studies such as these can effectively investigate large-scale system sensitivities and can be useful in engaging and informing decision makers.« less

Large-Scale Spacecraft Fire Safety Experiments in ISS Resupply Vehicles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ruff, Gary A.; Urban, David

2013-01-01

Our understanding of the fire safety risk in manned spacecraft has been limited by the small scale of the testing we have been able to conduct in low-gravity. Fire growth and spread cannot be expected to scale linearly with sample size so we cannot make accurate predictions of the behavior of realistic scale fires in spacecraft based on the limited low-g testing to date. As a result, spacecraft fire safety protocols are necessarily very conservative and costly. Future crewed missions are expected to be longer in duration than previous exploration missions outside of low-earth orbit and accordingly, more complex in terms of operations, logistics, and safety. This will increase the challenge of ensuring a fire-safe environment for the crew throughout the mission. Based on our fundamental uncertainty of the behavior of fires in low-gravity, the need for realistic scale testing at reduced gravity has been demonstrated. To address this concern, a spacecraft fire safety research project is underway to reduce the uncertainty and risk in the design of spacecraft fire safety systems by testing at nearly full scale in low-gravity. This project is supported by the NASA Advanced Exploration Systems Program Office in the Human Exploration and Operations Mission Directorate. The activity of this project is supported by an international topical team of fire experts from other space agencies to maximize the utility of the data and to ensure the widest possible scrutiny of the concept. The large-scale space flight experiment will be conducted on three missions; each in an Orbital Sciences Corporation Cygnus vehicle after it has deberthed from the ISS. Although the experiment will need to meet rigorous safety requirements to ensure the carrier vehicle does not sustain damage, the absence of a crew allows the fire products to be released into the cabin. The tests will be fully automated with the data downlinked at the conclusion of the test before the Cygnus vehicle reenters the atmosphere. The international topical team is collaborating with the NASA team in the definition of the experiment requirements and performing supporting analysis, experimentation and technology development.

Advancing flood risk analysis by integrating adaptive behaviour in large-scale flood risk assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haer, T.; Botzen, W.; Aerts, J.

2016-12-01

In the last four decades the global population living in the 1/100 year-flood zone has doubled from approximately 500 million to a little less than 1 billion people. Urbanization in low lying -flood prone- cities further increases the exposed assets, such as buildings and infrastructure. Moreover, climate change will further exacerbate flood risk in the future. Accurate flood risk assessments are important to inform policy-makers and society on current- and future flood risk levels. However, these assessment suffer from a major flaw in the way they estimate flood vulnerability and adaptive behaviour of individuals and governments. Current flood risk projections commonly assume that either vulnerability remains constant, or try to mimic vulnerability through incorporating an external scenario. Such a static approach leads to a misrepresentation of future flood risk, as humans respond adaptively to flood events, flood risk communication, and incentives to reduce risk. In our study, we integrate adaptive behaviour in a large-scale European flood risk framework through an agent-based modelling approach. This allows for the inclusion of heterogeneous agents, which dynamically respond to each other and a changing environment. We integrate state-of-the-art flood risk maps based on climate scenarios (RCP's), and socio-economic scenarios (SSP's), with government and household agents, which behave autonomously based on (micro-)economic behaviour rules. We show for the first time that excluding adaptive behaviour leads to a major misrepresentation of future flood risk. The methodology is applied to flood risk, but has similar implications for other research in the field of natural hazards. While more research is needed, this multi-disciplinary study advances our understanding of how future flood risk will develop.

Plans for Embedding ICTs into Teaching and Learning through a Large-Scale Secondary Education Reform in the Country of Georgia

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Richardson, Jayson W.; Sales, Gregory; Sentocnik, Sonja

2015-01-01

Integrating ICTs into international development projects is common. However, focusing on how ICTs support leading, teaching, and learning is often overlooked. This article describes a team's approach to technology integration into the design of a large-scale, five year, teacher and leader professional development project in the country of Georgia.…

Communicating the promise, risks, and ethics of large-scale, open space microbiome and metagenome research.

PubMed

Shamarina, Daria; Stoyantcheva, Iana; Mason, Christopher E; Bibby, Kyle; Elhaik, Eran

2017-10-04

The public commonly associates microorganisms with pathogens. This suspicion of microorganisms is understandable, as historically microorganisms have killed more humans than any other agent while remaining largely unknown until the late seventeenth century with the works of van Leeuwenhoek and Kircher. Despite our improved understanding regarding microorganisms, the general public are apt to think of diseases rather than of the majority of harmless or beneficial species that inhabit our bodies and the built and natural environment. As long as microbiome research was confined to labs, the public's exposure to microbiology was limited. The recent launch of global microbiome surveys, such as the Earth Microbiome Project and MetaSUB (Metagenomics and Metadesign of Subways and Urban Biomes) project, has raised ethical, financial, feasibility, and sustainability concerns as to the public's level of understanding and potential reaction to the findings, which, done improperly, risk negative implications for ongoing and future investigations, but done correctly, can facilitate a new vision of "smart cities." To facilitate improved future research, we describe here the major concerns that our discussions with ethics committees, community leaders, and government officials have raised, and we expound on how to address them. We further discuss ethical considerations of microbiome surveys and provide practical recommendations for public engagement.

Analysis of central enterprise architecture elements in models of six eHealth projects.

PubMed

Virkanen, Hannu; Mykkänen, Juha

2014-01-01

Large-scale initiatives for eHealth services have been established in many countries on regional or national level. The use of Enterprise Architecture has been suggested as a methodology to govern and support the initiation, specification and implementation of large-scale initiatives including the governance of business changes as well as information technology. This study reports an analysis of six health IT projects in relation to Enterprise Architecture elements, focusing on central EA elements and viewpoints in different projects.

Australian snowpack in the NARCliM ensemble: evaluation, bias correction and future projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luca, Alejandro Di; Evans, Jason P.; Ji, Fei

2017-10-01

In this study we evaluate the ability of an ensemble of high-resolution Regional Climate Model simulations to represent snow cover characteristics over the Australian Alps and go on to asses future projections of snowpack characteristics. Our results show that the ensemble presents a cold temperature bias and overestimates total precipitation leading to a general overestimation of the snow cover as compared with MODIS satellite data. We then produce a new set of snowpack characteristics by running a temperature based snow melt/accumulation model forced by bias corrected temperature and precipitation fields. While some positive snow cover biases remain, the bias corrected (BC) dataset show large improvements regarding the simulation of total amounts, seasonality and spatial distribution of the snow cover compared with MODIS products. Both the raw and BC datasets are then used to assess future changes in the snowpack characteristics. Both datasets show robust increases in near-surface temperatures and decreases in snowfall that lead to a substantial reduction of the snowpack over the Australian Alps. The snowpack decreases by about 15 and 60% by 2030 and 2070 respectively. While the BC data introduce large differences in the simulation of the present climate snowpack, in relative terms future changes appear to be similar to those obtained using the raw data. Future temperature projections show a clear dependence with elevation through the snow-albedo feedback effect that affects snowpack projections. Uncertainties in future projections of the snowpack are large in both datasets and are mainly dominated by the choice of the lateral boundary conditions.

CONSIDERATIONS FOR A REGULATORY FRAMEWORK FOR LARGE-SCALE GEOLOGIC SEQUESTRATION OF CARBON DIOXIDE: A NORTH AMERICAN PERSPECTIVE

EPA Science Inventory

Large scale geologic sequestration (GS) of carbon dioxide poses a novel set of challenges for regulators. This paper focuses on the unique needs of large scale GS projects in light of the existing regulatory regimes in the United States and Canada and identifies several differen...

Future changes in peak river flows across northern Eurasia as inferred from an ensemble of regional climate projections under the IPCC RCP8.5 scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shkolnik, Igor; Pavlova, Tatiana; Efimov, Sergey; Zhuravlev, Sergey

2018-01-01

Climate change simulation based on 30-member ensemble of Voeikov Main Geophysical Observatory RCM (resolution 25 km) for northern Eurasia is used to drive hydrological model CaMa-Flood. Using this modeling framework, we evaluate the uncertainties in the future projection of the peak river discharge and flood hazard by 2050-2059 relative to 1990-1999 under IPCC RCP8.5 scenario. Large ensemble size, along with reasonably high modeling resolution, allows one to efficiently sample natural climate variability and increase our ability to predict future changes in the hydrological extremes. It has been shown that the annual maximum river discharge can almost double by the mid-XXI century in the outlets of major Siberian rivers. In the western regions, there is a weak signal in the river discharge and flood hazard, hardly discernible above climate variability. Annual maximum flood area is projected to increase across Siberia mostly by 2-5% relative to the baseline period. A contribution of natural climate variability at different temporal scales to the uncertainty of ensemble prediction is discussed. The analysis shows that there expected considerable changes in the extreme river discharge probability at locations of the key hydropower facilities. This suggests that the extensive impact studies are required to develop recommendations for maintaining regional energy security.

From shared care to disease management: key-influencing factors.

PubMed

Eijkelberg, I M; Spreeuwenberg, C; Mur-Veeman, I M; Wolffenbuttel, B H

2001-01-01

In order to improve the quality of care of chronically ill patients the traditional boundaries between primary and secondary care are questioned. To demolish these boundaries so-called 'shared care' projects have been initiated in which different ways of substitution of care are applied. When these projects end, disease management may offer a solution to expand the achieved co-operation between primary and secondary care. Answering the question: What key factors influence the development and implementation of shared care projects from a management perspective and how are they linked? The theoretical framework is based on the concept of the learning organisation. Reference point is a multiple case study that finally becomes a single case study. Data are collected by means of triangulation. The studied cases concern two interrelated Dutch shared care projects for type 2 diabetic patients, that in the end proceed as one disease management project. In these cases the predominant key-influencing factors appear to be the project management, commitment and local context, respectively. The factor project management directly links the latter two, albeit managing both appear prerequisites to its success. In practice this implies managing the factors' interdependency by the application of change strategies and tactics in a committed and skillful way. Project management, as the most important and active key factor, is advised to cope with the interrelationships of the influencing factors in a gradually more fundamental way by using strategies and tactics that enable learning processes. Then small-scale shared care projects may change into a disease management network at a large scale, which may yield the future blueprint to proceed.

LAGUNA DESIGN STUDY, Underground infrastructures and engineering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nuijten, Guido Alexander

2011-07-01

The European Commission has awarded the LAGUNA project a grant of 1.7 million euro for a Design Study from the seventh framework program of research and technology development (FP7-INFRASTRUCTURES - 2007-1) in 2008. The purpose of this two year work is to study the feasibility of the considered experiments and prepare a conceptual design of the required underground infrastructure. It is due to deliver a report that allows the funding agencies to decide on the realization of the experiment and to select the site and the technology. The result of this work is the first step towards fulfilling the goals of LAGUNA. The work will continue with EU funding to study the possibilities more thoroughly. The LAGUNA project is included in the future plans prepared by European funding organizations. (Astroparticle physics in Europe). It is recommended that a new large European infrastructure is put forward, as a future international multi-purpose facility for improved studies on proton decay and low-energy neutrinos from astrophysical origin. The three detection techniques being studied for such large detectors in Europe, Water-Cherenkov (like MEMPHYS), liquid scintillator (like LENA) and liquid argon (like GLACIER), are evaluated in the context of a common design study which should also address the underground infrastructure and the possibility of an eventual detection of future accelerator neutrino beams. The design study is also to take into account worldwide efforts and converge, on a time scale of 2010, to a common proposal.

Assessing the impact of radiative parameter uncertainty on plant growth simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Viskari, T.; Serbin, S.; Dietze, M.; Shiklomanov, A. N.

2015-12-01

Current Earth system models do not adequately project either the magnitude or the sign of carbon fluxes and storage associated with the terrestrial carbon cycle resulting in significant uncertainties in their potential feedbacks on the future climate system. A primary reason for the current uncertainty in these models is the lack of observational constraints of key biomes at relevant spatial and temporal scales. There is an increasingly large and highly resolved amount of remotely sensed observations that can provide the critical model inputs. However, effectively incorporating these data requires the use of radiative transfer models and their associated assumptions. How these parameter assumptions and uncertainties affect model projections for, e.g., leaf physiology, soil temperature or growth has not been examined in depth. In this presentation we discuss the use of high spectral resolution observations at the near surface to landscape scales to inform ecosystem process modeling efforts, particularly the uncertainties related to properties describing the radiation regime within vegetation canopies and the impact on C cycle projections. We illustrate that leaf and wood radiative properties and their associated uncertainties have an important impact on projected forest carbon uptake and storage. We further show the need for a strong data constraint on these properties and discuss sources of this remotely sensed information and methods for data assimilation into models. We present our approach as an efficient means for understanding and correcting implicit assumptions and model structural deficiencies in radiation transfer in vegetation canopies. Ultimately, a better understanding of the radiation balance of ecosystems will improve regional and global scale C and energy balance projections.

StePS: Stereographically Projected Cosmological Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rácz, Gábor; Szapudi, István; Csabai, István; Dobos, László

2018-05-01

StePS (Stereographically Projected Cosmological Simulations) compactifies the infinite spatial extent of the Universe into a finite sphere with isotropic boundary conditions to simulate the evolution of the large-scale structure. This eliminates the need for periodic boundary conditions, which are a numerical convenience unsupported by observation and which modifies the law of force on large scales in an unrealistic fashion. StePS uses stereographic projection for space compactification and naive O(N2) force calculation; this arrives at a correlation function of the same quality more quickly than standard (tree or P3M) algorithms with similar spatial and mass resolution. The N2 force calculation is easy to adapt to modern graphics cards, hence StePS can function as a high-speed prediction tool for modern large-scale surveys.

Variable Star Catalogs: Their Past, Present and Future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samus, N. N.; Kazarovets, E. V.; Kireeva, N. N.; Pastukhova, E. N.; Durlevich, O. V.

2010-02-01

After the second World War, the International Astronomical Union made astronomers of the Soviet Union responsible for variable-star catalogues. This work has been continued ever since the first edition of the General Catalogue of Variable Stars compiled by the team headed by P. P. Parenago and B. V. Kukarkin and published in 1948. Currently, the catalogue work is a joint project of the Institute of Astronomy (Russian Academy of Sciences) and Sternberg Astronomical Institute (Moscow University). This paper is a brief review of recent trends in the field of variable-star catalogues. We discuss problems as well as new prospects related to modern large-scale automatic photometric sky surveys, and outline the state of discussions on the future of the variable-star catalogues in the profile commissions of the IAU.

Evaluating synoptic systems in the CMIP5 climate models over the Australian region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gibson, Peter B.; Uotila, Petteri; Perkins-Kirkpatrick, Sarah E.; Alexander, Lisa V.; Pitman, Andrew J.

2016-10-01

Climate models are our principal tool for generating the projections used to inform climate change policy. Our confidence in projections depends, in part, on how realistically they simulate present day climate and associated variability over a range of time scales. Traditionally, climate models are less commonly assessed at time scales relevant to daily weather systems. Here we explore the utility of a self-organizing maps (SOMs) procedure for evaluating the frequency, persistence and transitions of daily synoptic systems in the Australian region simulated by state-of-the-art global climate models. In terms of skill in simulating the climatological frequency of synoptic systems, large spread was observed between models. A positive association between all metrics was found, implying that relative skill in simulating the persistence and transitions of systems is related to skill in simulating the climatological frequency. Considering all models and metrics collectively, model performance was found to be related to model horizontal resolution but unrelated to vertical resolution or representation of the stratosphere. In terms of the SOM procedure, the timespan over which evaluation was performed had some influence on model performance skill measures, as did the number of circulation types examined. These findings have implications for selecting models most useful for future projections over the Australian region, particularly for projections related to synoptic scale processes and phenomena. More broadly, this study has demonstrated the utility of the SOMs procedure in providing a process-based evaluation of climate models.

Local short-duration precipitation extremes in Sweden: observations, forecasts and projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olsson, Jonas; Berg, Peter; Simonsson, Lennart

2015-04-01

Local short-duration precipitation extremes (LSPEs) are a key driver of hydrological hazards, notably in steep catchments with thin soils and in urban environments. The triggered floodings, landslides, etc., have large consequences for society in terms of both economy and health. Accurate estimations of LSPEs on both climatological time-scales (past, present, future) and in real-time is thus of great importance for improved hydrological predictions as well as design of constructions and infrastructure affected by hydrological fluxes. Analysis of LSPEs is, however, associated with various limitations and uncertainties. These are to a large degree associated with the small-scale nature of the meteorological processes behind LSPEs and the associated requirements on observation sensors as well as model descriptions. Some examples of causes for the limitations involved are given in the following. - Observations: High-resolution data sets available for LSPE analyses are often limited to either relatively long series from one or a few stations or relatively short series from larger station networks. Radar data have excellent resolutions in both time and space but the estimated local precipitation intensity is still highly uncertain. New and promising techniques (e.g. microwave links) are still in their infancy. - Weather forecasts (short-range): Although forecasts with the required spatial resolution for potential generation of LSPEs (around 2-4 km) are becoming operationally available, the actual forecast precision of LSPEs is largely unknown. Forecasted LSPEs may be displaced in time or, more critically, in space which strongly affects the possibility to assess hydrological risk. - Climate projections: The spatial resolution of the current RCM generation (around 25 km) is not sufficient for proper description of LSPEs. Statistical post-processing (i.e. downscaling) is required which adds substantial uncertainty to the final result. Ensemble generation of sufficiently high-resolution RCM projections is not yet computationally feasible. In this presentation, examples of recent research in Sweden related to these aspects will be given with some main findings shown and discussed. Finally, some ongoing and future research directions will be outlined (the former hopefully accompanied by some brand-new results).

Electricity from photovoltaic solar cells. Flat-Plate Solar Array Project of the US Department of Energy's National Photovoltaics Program: 10 years of progress

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Christensen, Elmer

1985-01-01

The objectives were to develop the flat-plate photovoltaic (PV) array technologies required for large-scale terrestrial use late in the 1980s and in the 1990s; advance crystalline silicon PV technologies; develop the technologies required to convert thin-film PV research results into viable module and array technology; and to stimulate transfer of knowledge of advanced PV materials, solar cells, modules, and arrays to the PV community. Progress reached on attaining these goals, along with future recommendations are discussed.

A conceptual framework for hydropeaking mitigation.

PubMed

Bruder, Andreas; Tonolla, Diego; Schweizer, Steffen P; Vollenweider, Stefan; Langhans, Simone D; Wüest, Alfred

2016-10-15

Hydropower plants are an important source of renewable energy. In the near future, high-head storage hydropower plants will gain further importance as a key element of large-scale electricity production systems. However, these power plants can cause hydropeaking which is characterized by intense unnatural discharge fluctuations in downstream river reaches. Consequences on environmental conditions in these sections are diverse and include changes to the hydrology, hydraulics and sediment regime on very short time scales. These altered conditions affect river ecosystems and biota, for instance due to drift and stranding of fishes and invertebrates. Several structural and operational measures exist to mitigate hydropeaking and the adverse effects on ecosystems, but estimating and predicting their ecological benefit remains challenging. We developed a conceptual framework to support the ecological evaluation of hydropeaking mitigation measures based on current mitigation projects in Switzerland and the scientific literature. We refined this framework with an international panel of hydropeaking experts. The framework is based on a set of indicators, which covers all hydrological phases of hydropeaking and the most important affected abiotic and biotic processes. Effects of mitigation measures on these indicators can be predicted quantitatively using prediction tools such as discharge scenarios and numerical habitat models. Our framework allows a comparison of hydropeaking effects among alternative mitigation measures, to the pre-mitigation situation, and to reference river sections. We further identified key issues that should be addressed to increase the efficiency of current and future projects. They include the spatial and temporal context of mitigation projects, the interactions of river morphology with hydropeaking effects, and the role of appropriate monitoring to evaluate the success of mitigation projects. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Development of a database system for near-future climate change projections under the Japanese National Project SI-CAT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakagawa, Y.; Kawahara, S.; Araki, F.; Matsuoka, D.; Ishikawa, Y.; Fujita, M.; Sugimoto, S.; Okada, Y.; Kawazoe, S.; Watanabe, S.; Ishii, M.; Mizuta, R.; Murata, A.; Kawase, H.

2017-12-01

Analyses of large ensemble data are quite useful in order to produce probabilistic effect projection of climate change. Ensemble data of "+2K future climate simulations" are currently produced by Japanese national project "Social Implementation Program on Climate Change Adaptation Technology (SI-CAT)" as a part of a database for Policy Decision making for Future climate change (d4PDF; Mizuta et al. 2016) produced by Program for Risk Information on Climate Change. Those data consist of global warming simulations and regional downscaling simulations. Considering that those data volumes are too large (a few petabyte) to download to a local computer of users, a user-friendly system is required to search and download data which satisfy requests of the users. We develop "a database system for near-future climate change projections" for providing functions to find necessary data for the users under SI-CAT. The database system for near-future climate change projections mainly consists of a relational database, a data download function and user interface. The relational database using PostgreSQL is a key function among them. Temporally and spatially compressed data are registered on the relational database. As a first step, we develop the relational database for precipitation, temperature and track data of typhoon according to requests by SI-CAT members. The data download function using Open-source Project for a Network Data Access Protocol (OPeNDAP) provides a function to download temporally and spatially extracted data based on search results obtained by the relational database. We also develop the web-based user interface for using the relational database and the data download function. A prototype of the database system for near-future climate change projections are currently in operational test on our local server. The database system for near-future climate change projections will be released on Data Integration and Analysis System Program (DIAS) in fiscal year 2017. Techniques of the database system for near-future climate change projections might be quite useful for simulation and observational data in other research fields. We report current status of development and some case studies of the database system for near-future climate change projections.

Estimating and projecting the effect of cold waves on mortality in 209 US cities.

PubMed

Wang, Yan; Shi, Liuhua; Zanobetti, Antonella; Schwartz, Joel D

2016-09-01

The frequency, duration, and intensity of cold waves are expected to decrease in the near future under the changing climate. However, there is a lack of understanding on future mortality related to cold waves. The present study conducted a large-scale national projection to estimate future mortality attributable to cold waves during 1960-2050 in 209 US cities. Cold waves were defined as two, three, or at least four consecutive days with daily temperature lower than the 5th percentile of temperatures in each city. The lingering period of a cold wave was defined as the non-cold wave days within seven days following that cold wave period. First, with 168million residents in 209 US cities during 1962-2006, we fitted over-dispersed Poisson regressions to estimate the immediate and lingering effects of cold waves on mortality and tested if the associations were modified by the duration of cold waves, the intensity of cold waves, and mean winter temperature (MWT). Then we projected future mortality related to cold waves using 20 downscaled climate models. Here we show that the cold waves (both immediate and lingering) were associated with an increased but small risk of mortality. The associations varied substantially across climate regions. The risk increased with the duration and intensity of cold waves but decreased with MWT. The projected mortality related to cold waves would decrease from 1960 to 2050. Such a decrease, however, is small and may not be able to offset the potential increase in heat-related deaths if the adaptation to heat is not adequate. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An Assessment of Water Demand and Availability to meet Construction and Operational Needs for Large Utility-Scale Solar Projects in the Southwestern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klise, G. T.; Tidwell, V. C.; Macknick, J.; Reno, M. D.; Moreland, B. D.; Zemlick, K. M.

2013-12-01

In the Southwestern United States, there are many large utility-scale solar photovoltaic (PV) and concentrating solar power (CSP) facilities currently in operation, with even more under construction and planned for future development. These are locations with high solar insolation and access to large metropolitan areas and existing grid infrastructure. The Bureau of Land Management, under a reasonably foreseeable development scenario, projects a total of almost 32 GW of installed utility-scale solar project capacity in the Southwest by 2030. To determine the potential impacts to water resources and the potential limitations water resources may have on development, we utilized methods outlined by the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) to determine potential water use in designated solar energy zones (SEZs) for construction and operations & maintenance (O&M), which is then evaluated according to water availability in six Southwestern states. Our results indicate that PV facilities overall use less water, however water for construction is high compared to lifetime operational water needs. There is a transition underway from wet cooled to dry cooled CSP facilities and larger PV facilities due to water use concerns, though some water is still necessary for construction, operations, and maintenance. Overall, ten watersheds, 9 in California, and one in New Mexico were identified as being of particular concern because of limited water availability. Understanding the location of potentially available water sources can help the solar industry determine locations that minimize impacts to existing water resources, and help understand potential costs when utilizing non-potable water sources or purchasing existing appropriated water. Sandia National Laboratories is a multi-program laboratory managed and operated by Sandia Corporation, a wholly owned subsidiary of Lockheed Martin Corporation, for the U.S. Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-AC04-94AL85000.

Future HEP Accelerators: The US Perspective

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bhat, Pushpalatha; Shiltsev, Vladimir

2015-11-02

Accelerator technology has advanced tremendously since the introduction of accelerators in the 1930s, and particle accelerators have become indispensable instruments in high energy physics (HEP) research to probe Nature at smaller and smaller distances. At present, accelerator facilities can be classified into Energy Frontier colliders that enable direct discoveries and studies of high mass scale particles and Intensity Frontier accelerators for exploration of extremely rare processes, usually at relatively low energies. The near term strategies of the global energy frontier particle physics community are centered on fully exploiting the physics potential of the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) at CERN throughmore » its high-luminosity upgrade (HL-LHC), while the intensity frontier HEP research is focused on studies of neutrinos at the MW-scale beam power accelerator facilities, such as Fermilab Main Injector with the planned PIP-II SRF linac project. A number of next generation accelerator facilities have been proposed and are currently under consideration for the medium- and long-term future programs of accelerator-based HEP research. In this paper, we briefly review the post-LHC energy frontier options, both for lepton and hadron colliders in various regions of the world, as well as possible future intensity frontier accelerator facilities.« less

Tradeoffs among carbon, biodiversity, and economic returns for future land-use scenarios in the conterminous United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pennington, D. N.; Nelson, E.; Polasky, S.; Plantinga, A.; Lewis, D.; Whithey, J.; Radeloff, V.; Lawler, J.; White, D.; Martinuzzi, S.; Helmers, D.; Lonsdorf, E.

2011-12-01

Land-use change significantly contributes to biodiversity loss, changes ecosystem processes, and causes ultimately the loss of ecosystem services. Planning for a sustainable future requires a thorough understanding of expected future land use at both the fine-spatial scale relevant for many ecological processes and at the larger regional levels relevant for large-scale policy making. We use an econometric model to predict business as usual land-use change across the continental US with 100-m resolution in 5-year time steps from 2001 to 2051. We then simulate the affect of various national-level tax, subsidy, and zoning policies on expected land-use change over this time frame. Further, we model the impact of projected land-use change under business as usual and the various policy scenarios on carbon sequestration and biodiversity conservation in the conterminous United States. Our results showed that overall, land use composition will remain fairly stable, but there are considerable regional changes. Differences among policy scenarios were relatively minor highlighting that the underlying economic drivers of land use patterns are strong, and even fairly drastic policies may not be able to change these.

Initial review and analysis of the direct environmental impacts of CSP in the northern Cape, South Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rudman, Justine; Gauché, Paul; Esler, Karen J.

2016-05-01

The Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) of 2010 and the IRP Update provide the most recent guidance to the electricity generation future of South Africa (SA) and both plans include an increased proportion of renewable energy generation capacity. Given that SA has abundant renewable energy resource potential, this inclusion is welcome. Only 600 MW of the capacity allocated to concentrating solar power (CSP) has been committed to projects in the Northern Cape and represents roughly a fifth of the capacity that has been included in the IRP. Although CSP is particularly new in the electricity generation system of the country, the abundant solar resources of the region with annual DNI values of above 2900 kWh/m2 across the arid Savannah and Nama-Karoo biomes offer a promising future for the development of CSP in South Africa. These areas have largely been left untouched by technological development activities and thus renewable energy projects present a variety of possible direct and indirect environmental, social and economic impacts. Environmental Impact Assessments do focus on local impacts, but given that ecological processes often extend to regional- and landscape scales, understanding this scaled context is important to the alignment of development- and conservation priorities. Given the capacities allocated to CSP for the future of SA's electricity generation system, impacts on land, air, water and biodiversity which are associated with CSP are expected to increase in distribution and the understanding thereof deems valuable already from this early point in CSP's future in SA. We provide a review of direct impacts of CSP on the natural environment and an overview of the anticipated specific significance thereof in the Northern Cape.

Develop an early warning climate indicator to support the Nation's resilience to 'flash' droughts over the US Great Plains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fu, R.; Fernando, D. N.; YANG, Z.; Solis, R.

2013-12-01

'Flash' droughts refer to those droughts that intensify rapidly in spring and summer, coupled with a strong increase of summer extreme temperatures, such as those that occurred over Texas in 2011 and the Great Plains in 2012. These droughts represent a great threat to North American water security. Climate models have failed to predict these 'flash' droughts and are ambiguous in projecting their future changes largely because of models' weaknesses in predicting summer rainfall and soil moisture feedbacks. By contrast, climate models are more reliable in simulating changes of large-scale circulation and warming of temperatures during the winter and spring seasons. We present a prototype of an early warning indicator for the risk of 'flash' droughts in summer by using the large-scale circulation and land surface conditions in winter and spring based on observed relationships between these conditions and their underlying physical mechanisms established by previous observations and numerical model simulations. This prototype 'flash' drought indicator (IFDW) currently uses global and regional reanalysis products (e.g., CFSR, MERRA, NLDAS products) in winter and spring to provide an assessment of summer drought severity similar to drought severity indices like PDSI (Palmer Drought Severity Index), SPI (Standard Precipitation Index) etc., provided by the National Integrated Drought Information Center (NIDIS) with additional information about uncertainty and past probability distributions of IFDW. Preliminary evaluation of hindcasts suggests that the indicator captures the occurrences of all the regional severe to extreme summer droughts during the past 63 years (1949-2011) over the US Great Plains, and 95% of the drought ending. This prototype IFDW has several advantages over the available drought indices that simply track local drought conditions in the past, present and future: 1) It mitigates the weakness of current climate models in predicting future summer droughts and takes advantage of model strengths and our understanding of the mechanisms that control 'flash' droughts; 2) It provides actionable drought risk information for stakeholders before droughts become fully developed in the current climate; 3) It can potentially link the future increase of temperatures in winter and spring to the risk of 'flash' droughts in summer. Such a link would make the projected changes of the 'flash' droughts more intuitive and compelling to high-level decision makers and the public.

State of the Art Methodology for the Design and Analysis of Future Large Scale Evaluations: A Selective Examination.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Burstein, Leigh

Two specific methods of analysis in large-scale evaluations are considered: structural equation modeling and selection modeling/analysis of non-equivalent control group designs. Their utility in large-scale educational program evaluation is discussed. The examination of these methodological developments indicates how people (evaluators,…

Current and future levels of mercury atmospheric pollution on a global scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pacyna, Jozef M.; Travnikov, Oleg; De Simone, Francesco; Hedgecock, Ian M.; Sundseth, Kyrre; Pacyna, Elisabeth G.; Steenhuisen, Frits; Pirrone, Nicola; Munthe, John; Kindbom, Karin

2016-10-01

An assessment of current and future emissions, air concentrations, and atmospheric deposition of mercury worldwide is presented on the basis of results obtained during the performance of the EU GMOS (Global Mercury Observation System) project. Emission estimates for mercury were prepared with the main goal of applying them in models to assess current (2013) and future (2035) air concentrations and atmospheric deposition of this contaminant. The combustion of fossil fuels (mainly coal) for energy and heat production in power plants and in industrial and residential boilers, as well as artisanal and small-scale gold mining, is one of the major anthropogenic sources of Hg emissions to the atmosphere at present. These sources account for about 37 and 25 % of the total anthropogenic Hg emissions globally, estimated to be about 2000 t. Emissions in Asian countries, particularly in China and India, dominate the total emissions of Hg. The current estimates of mercury emissions from natural processes (primary mercury emissions and re-emissions), including mercury depletion events, were estimated to be 5207 t year-1, which represents nearly 70 % of the global mercury emission budget. Oceans are the most important sources (36 %), followed by biomass burning (9 %). A comparison of the 2035 anthropogenic emissions estimated for three different scenarios with current anthropogenic emissions indicates a reduction of these emissions in 2035 up to 85 % for the best-case scenario. Two global chemical transport models (GLEMOS and ECHMERIT) have been used for the evaluation of future mercury pollution levels considering future emission scenarios. Projections of future changes in mercury deposition on a global scale simulated by these models for three anthropogenic emissions scenarios of 2035 indicate a decrease in up to 50 % deposition in the Northern Hemisphere and up to 35 % in Southern Hemisphere for the best-case scenario. The EU GMOS project has proved to be a very important research instrument for supporting the scientific justification for the Minamata Convention and monitoring of the implementation of targets of this convention, as well as the EU Mercury Strategy. This project provided the state of the art with regard to the development of the latest emission inventories for mercury, future emission scenarios, dispersion modelling of atmospheric mercury on a global and regional scale, and source-receptor techniques for mercury emission apportionment on a global scale.

A new large initial condition ensemble to assess avoided impacts in a climate mitigation scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanderson, B. M.; Tebaldi, C.; Knutti, R.; Oleson, K. W.

2014-12-01

It has recently been demonstrated that when considering timescales of up to 50 years, natural variability may play an equal role to anthropogenic forcing on subcontinental trends for a variety of climate indicators. Thus, for many questions assessing climate impacts on such time and spatial scales, it has become clear that a significant number of ensemble members may be required to produce robust statistics (and especially so for extreme events). However, large ensemble experiments to date have considered the role of variability in a single scenario, leaving uncertain the relationship between the forced climate trajectory and the variability about that path. To address this issue, we present a new, publicly available, 15 member initial condition ensemble of 21st century climate projections for the RCP 4.5 scenario using the CESM1.1 Earth System Model, which we propose as a companion project to the existing 40 member CESM large ensemble which uses the higher greenhouse gas emission future of RCP8.5. This provides a valuable data set for assessing what societal and ecological impacts might be avoided through a moderate mitigation strategy in contrast to a fossil fuel intensive future. We present some early analyses of these combined ensembles to assess to what degree the climate variability can be considered to combine linearly with the underlying forced response. In regions where there is no detectable relationship between the mean state and the variability about the mean trajectory, then linear assumptions can be trivially exploited to utilize a single ensemble or control simulation to characterize the variability in any scenario of interest. We highlight regions where there is a detectable nonlinearity in extreme event frequency, how far in the future they will be manifested and propose mechanisms to account for these effects.

Towards a global water scarcity risk assessment framework: using scenarios and risk distributions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Veldkamp, Ted; Wada, Yoshihide; Aerts, Jeroen; Ward, Philip

2016-04-01

Over the past decades, changing hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions have led to increased water scarcity problems. A large number of studies have shown that these water scarcity conditions will worsen in the near future. Despite numerous calls for risk-based assessments of water scarcity, a framework that includes UNISDR's definition of risk does not yet exist at the global scale. This study provides a first step towards such a risk-based assessment, applying a Gamma distribution to estimate water scarcity conditions at the global scale under historic and future conditions, using multiple climate change projections and socioeconomic scenarios. Our study highlights that water scarcity risk increases given all future scenarios, up to >56.2% of the global population in 2080. Looking at the drivers of risk, we find that population growth outweigh the impacts of climate change at global and regional scales. Using a risk-based method to assess water scarcity in terms of Expected Annual Exposed Population, we show the results to be less sensitive than traditional water scarcity assessments to the use of fixed threshold to represent different levels of water scarcity. This becomes especially important when moving from global to local scales, whereby deviations increase up to 50% of estimated risk levels. Covering hazard, exposure, and vulnerability, risk-based methods are well-suited to assess water scarcity adaptation. Completing the presented risk framework therefore offers water managers a promising perspective to increase water security in a well-informed and adaptive manner.

Modeling the potential persistence of various ecological systems under CMIP5 future climate and land use scenarios throughout California, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baker, B.; Ferschweiler, K.; Bachelet, D. M.; Sleeter, B. M.

2016-12-01

California's geographic location, topographic complexity and latitudinal climatic gradient give rise to great biological and ecological diversity. However, increased land use pressure, altered seasonal weather patterns, and changes in temperature and precipitation regimes are having pronounced effects on ecosystems and the multitude of services they provide for an increasing population. As a result, natural resource managers are faced with formidable challenges to maintain these critical services. The goals of this project were to better understand how projected 21st century climate and land-use change scenarios may alter ecosystem dynamics, the spatial distribution of various vegetation types and land-use patterns, and to provide a coarse scale "triage map" of where land managers may want to concentrate efforts to reduce ecological stress in order to mitigate the potential impacts of a changing climate. We used the MC2 dynamic global vegetation model and the LUCAS state-and-transition simulation model to simulate the potential effects of future climate and land-use change on ecological processes for the state of California. Historical climate data were obtained from the PRISM dataset and nine CMIP5 climate models were run for the RCP 8.5 scenario. Climate projections were combined with a business-as-usual land-use scenario based on local-scale land use histories. For ease of discussion, results from five simulation runs (historic, hot-dry, hot-wet, warm-dry, and warm-wet) are presented. Results showed large changes in the extent of urban and agricultural lands. In addition, several simulated potential vegetation types persisted in situ under all four future scenarios, although alterations in total area, total ecosystem carbon, and forest vigor (NPP/LAI) were noted. As might be expected, the majority of the forested types that persisted occurred on public lands. However, more than 78% of the simulated subtropical mixed forest and 26% of temperate evergreen needleleaf forest types persisted on private lands under all four future scenarios. Result suggest that building collaborations across management borders could be valuable tool to guide natural resource management actions into the future.

Projecting 21st Century Snowpack Trends in the Western United States using Variable-Resolution CESM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rhoades, A.; Huang, X.; Zarzycki, C. M.; Ullrich, P. A.

2015-12-01

The western USA is integrally reliant upon winter season snowpack, which supplies 3/4 of the region's fresh water and buffers against seasonal aridity on agricultural, ecosystem, and urban water demands. By the end of the 21st century, western USA snowpack (SWE) could decline by 40-70%, snowfall by 25-40%, more winter storms could tend towards rain rather than snow, and the peak timing of snowmelt will shift several weeks earlier in the season. Further, there has been evidence that mountain ranges could face more accelerated warming (elevational dependent warming) due to climate change. These future trends have largely been derived from global climate models (CMIP5) which can't resolve some of the more relatively narrow mountain ranges, like the California Sierra Nevada, in great detail. Therefore, due to the importance of orographic uplift on weather fronts, eastern Pacific sea-surface temperature anomalies, atmospheric river events, and mesoscale convective systems, high-resolution global scale modeling techniques are necessary to properly resolve western USA mountain range climatology. Variable-resolution global climate models (VRGCMs) are a promising next-generation technique to analyze both past and future hydroclimatic trends in the region. VRGCMs serve as a bridge between regional and global models by allowing for high-resolution in areas of interest, eliminate lateral boundary forcings (and resultant model biases), allow for more dynamically inclusive large-scale climate teleconnections, and require smaller simulation times and lower data storage demand (compared to conventional global models). This presentation focuses on validating these next-generation models as well as projecting future climate change scenario impacts on several of the western USA's key hydroclimate metrics (e.g., two-meter surface temperature, snow cover, snow water equivalent, and snowfall) to inform water managers and policy makers and offer resilience to climate change impacts facing the region.

The air quality and health co-benefits of alternative post-2020 pathways for achieving peak carbon targets in Jiangsu, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, M.; Bi, J.; Huang, Y.; Kinney, P. L.

2016-12-01

Jiangsu, which has three national low-carbon pilot cities, is set to be a model province in China for achieving peak carbon targets before 2030. However, according to local planning of responding to climate change, carbon emissions are projected to keep going up before 2020 even the strictest measures are implemented. In other words, innovative measures must be in action after 2020. This work aimed at assessing the air quality and health co-benefits of alternative post-2020 measures to help remove barriers of policy implementation through tying it to local incentives for air quality improvement. To achieve the aim, we select 2010 as baseline year and develop Bussiness As Usual (BAU) and Traditional Carbon Reduction (TCR) scenarios before 2020. Under BAU, only existing climate and air pollution control policies are considered; under TCR, potential climate policies in local planning and existing air pollution control policies are considered. After 2020, integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC) plant with carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology and large-scale substitution of renewable energy seem to be two promising pathways for achieving peak carbon targets. Therefore, two additional scenarios (TCR-IGCC and TCR-SRE) are set after 2020. Based on the projections of future energy balances and industrial productions, we estimate the pollutant emissions and simulate PM2.5 and ozone concentrations by 2017, 2020, 2030 and 2050 using CMAQ. Then using health impact assessment approach, the premature deaths are estimated and monetized. Results show that the carbon peak in Jiangsu will be achieved before 2030 only under TCR-IGCC and TCR-SRE scenarios. Under three policy scenarios, Jiangsu's carbon emission control targets would have substantial effects on primary air pollutant emissions far beyond those we estimate would be needed to meet the PM2.5 concentration targets in 2017. Compared with IGCC with CCS, large-scale substitutions of renewable energy bring comparable pollutant emission reductions but more health benefits because it reduces more emissions from traffic sources which are more harmful to health. However, large-scale substitution of renewable energy posed challenges on energy supply capacity, which need to be seriously considered in future policy decision.

The Unanticipated Challenges Associated With Implementing an Observational Study Protocol in a Large-Scale Physical Activity and Global Positioning System Data Collection

PubMed Central

Walker, David; Ellaway, Anne

2018-01-01

Background Large-scale primary data collections are complex, costly, and time-consuming. Study protocols for trial-based research are now commonplace, with a growing number of similar pieces of work being published on observational research. However, useful additions to the literature base are publications that describe the issues and challenges faced while conducting observational studies. These can provide researchers with insightful knowledge that can inform funding proposals or project development work. Objectives In this study, we identify and reflectively discuss the unforeseen or often unpublished issues associated with organizing and implementing a large-scale objectively measured physical activity and global positioning system (GPS) data collection. Methods The SPACES (Studying Physical Activity in Children’s Environments across Scotland) study was designed to collect objectively measured physical activity and GPS data from 10- to 11-year-old children across Scotland, using a postal delivery method. The 3 main phases of the project (recruitment, delivery of project materials, and data collection and processing) are described within a 2-stage framework: (1) intended design and (2) implementation of the intended design. Results Unanticipated challenges arose, which influenced the data collection process; these encompass four main impact categories: (1) cost, budget, and funding; (2) project timeline; (3) participation and engagement; and (4) data challenges. The main unforeseen issues that impacted our timeline included the informed consent process for children under the age of 18 years; the use of, and coordination with, the postal service to deliver study information and equipment; and the variability associated with when participants began data collection and the time taken to send devices and consent forms back (1-12 months). Unanticipated budgetary issues included the identification of some study materials (AC power adapter) not fitting through letterboxes, as well as the employment of fieldworkers to increase recruitment and the return of consent forms. Finally, we encountered data issues when processing physical activity and GPS data that had been initiated across daylight saving time. Conclusions We present learning points and recommendations that may benefit future studies of similar methodology in their early stages of development. PMID:29712624

Newly invented biobased materials from low-carbon, diverted waste fibers: research methods, testing, and full-scale application in a case study structure

Treesearch

Julee A Herdt; John Hunt; Kellen Schauermann

2016-01-01

This project demonstrates newly invented, biobased construction materials developed by applying lowcarbon, biomass waste sources through the Authors’ engineered fiber processes and technology. If manufactured and applied large-scale the project inventions can divert large volumes of cellulose waste into high-performance, low embodied energy, environmental construction...

Architectural Optimization of Digital Libraries

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Biser, Aileen O.

1998-01-01

This work investigates performance and scaling issues relevant to large scale distributed digital libraries. Presently, performance and scaling studies focus on specific implementations of production or prototype digital libraries. Although useful information is gained to aid these designers and other researchers with insights to performance and scaling issues, the broader issues relevant to very large scale distributed libraries are not addressed. Specifically, no current studies look at the extreme or worst case possibilities in digital library implementations. A survey of digital library research issues is presented. Scaling and performance issues are mentioned frequently in the digital library literature but are generally not the focus of much of the current research. In this thesis a model for a Generic Distributed Digital Library (GDDL) and nine cases of typical user activities are defined. This model is used to facilitate some basic analysis of scaling issues. Specifically, the calculation of Internet traffic generated for different configurations of the study parameters and an estimate of the future bandwidth needed for a large scale distributed digital library implementation. This analysis demonstrates the potential impact a future distributed digital library implementation would have on the Internet traffic load and raises questions concerning the architecture decisions being made for future distributed digital library designs.

Using the Personality Assessment Inventory Antisocial and Borderline Features Scales to Predict Behavior Change.

PubMed

Penson, Brittany N; Ruchensky, Jared R; Morey, Leslie C; Edens, John F

2016-11-01

A substantial amount of research has examined the developmental trajectory of antisocial behavior and, in particular, the relationship between antisocial behavior and maladaptive personality traits. However, research typically has not controlled for previous behavior (e.g., past violence) when examining the utility of personality measures, such as self-report scales of antisocial and borderline traits, in predicting future behavior (e.g., subsequent violence). Examination of the potential interactive effects of measures of both antisocial and borderline traits also is relatively rare in longitudinal research predicting adverse outcomes. The current study utilizes a large sample of youthful offenders ( N = 1,354) from the Pathways to Desistance project to examine the separate effects of the Personality Assessment Inventory Antisocial Features (ANT) and Borderline Features (BOR) scales in predicting future offending behavior as well as trends in other negative outcomes (e.g., substance abuse, violence, employment difficulties) over a 1-year follow-up period. In addition, an ANT × BOR interaction term was created to explore the predictive effects of secondary psychopathy. ANT and BOR both explained unique variance in the prediction of various negative outcomes even after controlling for past indicators of those same behaviors during the preceding year.

Project BALLOTS: Bibliographic Automation of Large Library Operations Using a Time-Sharing System. Progress Report (3/27/69 - 6/26/69).

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Veaner, Allen B.

Project BALLOTS is a large-scale library automation development project of the Stanford University Libraries which has demonstrated the feasibility of conducting on-line interactive searches of complex bibliographic files, with a large number of users working simultaneously in the same or different files. This report documents the continuing…

Large-scale drought-induced vegetation die-off: expanding the ecohydrological emphasis more explicitly on atmospheric demand. (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Breshears, D. D.; Adams, H. D.; Eamus, D.; McDowell, N. G.; Law, D. J.; Will, R. E.; Williams, P.; Zou, C.

2013-12-01

Ecohydrology focuses on the interactions of water availability, ecosystem productivity, and biogeochemical cycles via ecological-hydrological connections. These connections can be particularly pronounced and socially relevant when there are large-scale rapid changes in vegetation. One such key change, vegetation mortality, can be triggered by drought and is projected to become more frequent and/or extensive in the future under changing climate. Recent research on drought-induced vegetation die-off has focused primarily on direct drought effects, such as soil moisture deficit, and, to a much lesser degree, the potential for warmer temperatures to exacerbate stress and accelerate mortality. However, temperature is tightly interrelated with atmospheric demand (vapor pressure deficit, VPD) but the latter has rarely been considered explicitly relative to die-off events. Here we highlight the importance of VPD in addition to soil moisture deficit and warmer temperature as an important driver of future die-off. Recent examples highlighting the importance of VPD include mortality patterns corresponding to VPD drivers, a strong dependence of forest growth on VPD, patterns of observed mortality along an environmental gradient, an experimentally-determined climate envelope for mortality, and a suite of modeling simulations segregating the drought effects of VPD from those of temperature. The vast bulk of evidence suggests that atmospheric demand needs to be considered in addition to temperature and soil moisture deficit in predicting risk of future vegetation die-off and associated ecohydrological transformations.

Implementing Projects in Calculus on a Large Scale at the University of South Florida

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fox, Gordon A.; Campbell, Scott; Grinshpan, Arcadii; Xu, Xiaoying; Holcomb, John; Bénéteau, Catherine; Lewis, Jennifer E.; Ramachandran, Kandethody

2017-01-01

This paper describes the development of a program of project-based learning in Calculus courses at a large urban research university. In this program, students developed research projects in consultation with a faculty advisor in their major, and supervised by their calculus instructors. Students wrote up their projects in a prescribed format…

Geothermal projects funded under the NER 300 programme - current state of development and knowledge gained

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shortall, Ruth; Uihlein, Andreas

2017-04-01

Introduction The NER 300 programme, managed by the European Commission is one of the largest funding programmes for innovative low-carbon energy demonstration projects. NER 300 is so called because it is funded from the sale of 300 million emission allowances from the new entrants' reserve (NER) set up for the third phase of the EU emissions trading system (ETS). The programme aims to successfully demonstrate environmentally safe carbon capture and storage (CCS) and innovative renewable energy (RES) technologies on a commercial scale with a view to scaling up production of low-carbon technologies in the EU. Consequently, it supports a wide range of CCS and RES technologies (bioenergy, concentrated solar power, photovoltaics, geothermal, wind, ocean, hydropower, and smart grids). Funded projects and the role of geothermal projects for the programme In total, about EUR 2.1 billion have been awarded through the programme's 2 calls for proposals (the first awarded in December 2012, the second in July 2014). The programme has awarded around EUR 70 million funding to 3 geothermal projects in Hungary, Croatia and France. The Croatian geothermal project will enter into operation during 2017 the Hungarian in 2018, and the French in 2020. Knowledge Sharing Knowledge sharing requirements are built into the legal basis of the programme as a critical tool to lower risks in bridging the transition to large-scale production of innovative renewable energy and CCS deployment. Projects have to submit annually to the European Commission relevant knowledge gained during that year in the implementation of their project. The relevant knowledge is aggregated and disseminated by the European Commission to industry, research, government, NGO and other interest groups and associations in order to provide a better understanding of the practical challenges that arise in the important step of scaling up technologies and operating them at commercial scale. The knowledge sharing of the NER 300 programme should lead to better planning and faster introduction of low carbon technologies in the future. Content of the presentation The presentation will introduce the geothermal projects that have been awarded funding (see Annex), including their state-of-play. Insights and knowledge gained from the projects that have entered into operation will be shown and discussed. Furthermore, the presentation will provide an overview of the NER 300 programme.

Longitudinal impact of the project PATHS on adolescent risk behavior: what happened after five years?

PubMed

Shek, Daniel T L; Yu, Lu

2012-01-01

The present study investigated the longitudinal impact of the Project PATHS, a large-scale curriculum-based positive youth development program in Hong Kong, on the development of adolescents' risk behavior over a period of five years. Using a longitudinal randomized controlled design, eight waves of data were collected from 19 experimental schools in which students participated in the Project PATHS (N = 2,850 at Wave 8) and 24 control schools without joining the Project PATHS (N = 3,640 at Wave 8). At each wave, students responded to measures assessing their current risk behaviors, including delinquency, use of different types of drug, and their intentions of participating in risk behaviors in the future. Results demonstrated that adolescents receiving the program exhibited significantly slower increases in delinquent behaviors and substance use as compared to the control participants. During two years after the completion of the program, differences in youth risk behaviors in the two groups still existed. These results suggest that the Project PATHS has long-term effect in preventing adolescent problem behavior through promoting positive youth development.

Changes in the Winter-Time Storminess over the North Atlantic, Associated with the 1.5°C and 2°C Levels of Global Warming.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barcikowska, M. J.; Weaver, S. J.; Feser, F.; Schenk, F.

2017-12-01

This study investigates the changes in extreme winter-time weather conditions over the NH midlatitudes. These conditions are to a large degree caused by extratropical storms, often associated with very intense and hazardous precipitation and wind. Although the skill of CMIP5 models in capturing these extremes is improved when compared to the previous generations, the spatial and temporal resolution of the models still remains a primary reason for the deficiencies. Therefore, many features of the storms projected for the future remain inconsistent. Here we are using the high-res horizontal (0.25° lat x lon) and temporal (3hr) output of the HAPPI experiment. This output facilitates not only an implicit extraction of storm tracks but also an analysis of the storm intensity, in terms of their maximum wind and rainfall, at subdaily time-scales. The analysis of simulated present climate shows an improved spatial pattern of large-scale circulation over North America and Europe, as compared to the CMIP5-generation models, and consequently a reduced zonal bias in storm tracks pattern. The information provided at subdaily time scale provides much more realistic representation of the magnitude of the extremes. These advances significantly contribute to our understanding of differential climate impacts between 1.5°C and 2°C levels of global warming. The spatial pattern of the north-eastward shift of storm tracks, derived from the recent CMIP5 future projections, is remarkably refined here. For example, increasing storminess expands towards Scandinavia, and not towards the north-central Europe. Derived spatial features of the storm intensity, e.g. increase in wind and precipitation on the west coasts of both the British Isles and Scandinavia underlines the relevancy of the results for the local communities and potential climate change adaptation initiatives.

Examining the Performance of Statistical Downscaling Methods: Toward Matching Applications to Data Products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dixon, K. W.; Lanzante, J. R.; Adams-Smith, D.

2017-12-01

Several challenges exist when seeking to use future climate model projections in a climate impacts study. A not uncommon approach is to utilize climate projection data sets derived from more than one future emissions scenario and from multiple global climate models (GCMs). The range of future climate responses represented in the set is sometimes taken to be indicative of levels of uncertainty in the projections. Yet, GCM outputs are deemed to be unsuitable for direct use in many climate impacts applications. GCM grids typically are viewed as being too coarse. Additionally, regional or local-scale biases in a GCM's simulation of the contemporary climate that may not be problematic from a global climate modeling perspective may be unacceptably large for a climate impacts application. Statistical downscaling (SD) of climate projections - a type of post-processing that uses observations to inform the refinement of GCM projections - is often used in an attempt to account for GCM biases and to provide additional spatial detail. "What downscaled climate projection is the best one to use" is a frequently asked question, but one that is not always easy to answer, as it can be dependent on stakeholder needs and expectations. Here we present results from a perfect model experimental design illustrating how SD method performance can vary not only by SD method, but how performance can also vary by location, season, climate variable of interest, amount of projected climate change, SD configuration choices, and whether one is interested in central tendencies or the tails of the distribution. Awareness of these factors can be helpful when seeking to determine the suitability of downscaled climate projections for specific climate impacts applications. It also points to the potential value of considering more than one SD data product in a study, so as to acknowledge uncertainties associated with the strengths and weaknesses of different downscaling methods.

How Robust Is Your Project? From Local Failures to Global Catastrophes: A Complex Networks Approach to Project Systemic Risk.

PubMed

Ellinas, Christos; Allan, Neil; Durugbo, Christopher; Johansson, Anders

2015-01-01

Current societal requirements necessitate the effective delivery of complex projects that can do more while using less. Yet, recent large-scale project failures suggest that our ability to successfully deliver them is still at its infancy. Such failures can be seen to arise through various failure mechanisms; this work focuses on one such mechanism. Specifically, it examines the likelihood of a project sustaining a large-scale catastrophe, as triggered by single task failure and delivered via a cascading process. To do so, an analytical model was developed and tested on an empirical dataset by the means of numerical simulation. This paper makes three main contributions. First, it provides a methodology to identify the tasks most capable of impacting a project. In doing so, it is noted that a significant number of tasks induce no cascades, while a handful are capable of triggering surprisingly large ones. Secondly, it illustrates that crude task characteristics cannot aid in identifying them, highlighting the complexity of the underlying process and the utility of this approach. Thirdly, it draws parallels with systems encountered within the natural sciences by noting the emergence of self-organised criticality, commonly found within natural systems. These findings strengthen the need to account for structural intricacies of a project's underlying task precedence structure as they can provide the conditions upon which large-scale catastrophes materialise.

Climate SPHINX: High-resolution present-day and future climate simulations with an improved representation of small-scale variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davini, Paolo; von Hardenberg, Jost; Corti, Susanna; Subramanian, Aneesh; Weisheimer, Antje; Christensen, Hannah; Juricke, Stephan; Palmer, Tim

2016-04-01

The PRACE Climate SPHINX project investigates the sensitivity of climate simulations to model resolution and stochastic parameterization. The EC-Earth Earth-System Model is used to explore the impact of stochastic physics in 30-years climate integrations as a function of model resolution (from 80km up to 16km for the atmosphere). The experiments include more than 70 simulations in both a historical scenario (1979-2008) and a climate change projection (2039-2068), using RCP8.5 CMIP5 forcing. A total amount of 20 million core hours will be used at end of the project (March 2016) and about 150 TBytes of post-processed data will be available to the climate community. Preliminary results show a clear improvement in the representation of climate variability over the Euro-Atlantic following resolution increase. More specifically, the well-known atmospheric blocking negative bias over Europe is definitely resolved. High resolution runs also show improved fidelity in representation of tropical variability - such as the MJO and its propagation - over the low resolution simulations. It is shown that including stochastic parameterization in the low resolution runs help to improve some of the aspects of the MJO propagation further. These findings show the importance of representing the impact of small scale processes on the large scale climate variability either explicitly (with high resolution simulations) or stochastically (in low resolution simulations).

Land Change in Russia since 2000

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Beurs, K.; Ioffe, G.; Nefedova, T.

2010-12-01

Agricultural reform has been an important anthropogenic change process shaping landscapes in European Russia since the formal collapse of the Soviet Union at the end of 1991. Widespread land abandonment is perhaps the most evident side effect of the reform, even visible in synoptic imagery. While land abandonment as a result of the collapse of the Soviet Union is relatively well documented, few studies have investigated the unfolding process of abandonment that results from rural population declines. Russia’s population is projected to shrink by a staggering 29% by 2050 and population dynamics are predicted to play a significant role structuring rural landscapes across European Russia. While often treated as a unified whole with respect to agricultural reform, significant regional diversity exists in Russia. Official statistics at the rayon (county) level are typically skewed toward large-scale farming and farm data from important household productions are summarized into regional averages. In addition, data at sub-district level can often only be obtained by visiting rural administrators in person. Large scale official data thus need to be interpreted with caution. Here we present data collected during the summer of 2010 from representative settlements and enterprises in selected counties within the oblasts (states) of Kostroma and Samara. These field data will provide an initial overview of the economic and social state in modern rural western Russia. We will combine the field data with established socio-demographic observations as well as satellite observations at multiple scales to understand the effect of global change and to project future developments.

DOE Joint Genome Institute 2008 Progress Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gilbert, David

2009-03-12

While initially a virtual institute, the driving force behind the creation of the DOE Joint Genome Institute in Walnut Creek, California in the Fall of 1999 was the Department of Energy's commitment to sequencing the human genome. With the publication in 2004 of a trio of manuscripts describing the finished 'DOE Human Chromosomes', the Institute successfully completed its human genome mission. In the time between the creation of the Department of Energy Joint Genome Institute (DOE JGI) and completion of the Human Genome Project, sequencing and its role in biology spread to fields extending far beyond what could be imaginedmore » when the Human Genome Project first began. Accordingly, the targets of the DOE JGI's sequencing activities changed, moving from a single human genome to the genomes of large numbers of microbes, plants, and other organisms, and the community of users of DOE JGI data similarly expanded and diversified. Transitioning into operating as a user facility, the DOE JGI modeled itself after other DOE user facilities, such as synchrotron light sources and supercomputer facilities, empowering the science of large numbers of investigators working in areas of relevance to energy and the environment. The JGI's approach to being a user facility is based on the concept that by focusing state-of-the-art sequencing and analysis capabilities on the best peer-reviewed ideas drawn from a broad community of scientists, the DOE JGI will effectively encourage creative approaches to DOE mission areas and produce important science. This clearly has occurred, only partially reflected in the fact that the DOE JGI has played a major role in more than 45 papers published in just the past three years alone in Nature and Science. The involvement of a large and engaged community of users working on important problems has helped maximize the impact of JGI science. A seismic technological change is presently underway at the JGI. The Sanger capillary-based sequencing process that dominated how sequencing was done in the last decade is being replaced by a variety of new processes and sequencing instruments. The JGI, with an increasing number of next-generation sequencers, whose throughput is 100- to 1,000-fold greater than the Sanger capillary-based sequencers, is increasingly focused in new directions on projects of scale and complexity not previously attempted. These new directions for the JGI come, in part, from the 2008 National Research Council report on the goals of the National Plant Genome Initiative as well as the 2007 National Research Council report on the New Science of Metagenomics. Both reports outline a crucial need for systematic large-scale surveys of the plant and microbial components of the biosphere as well as an increasing need for large-scale analysis capabilities to meet the challenge of converting sequence data into knowledge. The JGI is extensively discussed in both reports as vital to progress in these fields of major national interest. JGI's future plan for plants and microbes includes a systematic approach for investigation of these organisms at a scale requiring the special capabilities of the JGI to generate, manage, and analyze the datasets. JGI will generate and provide not only community access to these plant and microbial datasets, but also the tools for analyzing them. These activities will produce essential knowledge that will be needed if we are to be able to respond to the world's energy and environmental challenges. As the JGI Plant and Microbial programs advance, the JGI as a user facility is also evolving. The Institute has been highly successful in bending its technical and analytical skills to help users solve large complex problems of major importance, and that effort will continue unabated. The JGI will increasingly move from a central focus on 'one-off' user projects coming from small user communities to much larger scale projects driven by systematic and problem-focused approaches to selection of sequencing targets. Entire communities of scientists working in a particular field, such as feedstock improvement or biomass degradation, will be users of this information. Despite this new emphasis, an investigator-initiated user program will remain. This program in the future will replace small projects that increasingly can be accomplished without the involvement of JGI, with imaginative large-scale 'Grand Challenge' projects of foundational relevance to energy and the environment that require a new scale of sequencing and analysis capabilities. Close interactions with the DOE Bioenergy Research Centers, and with other DOE institutions that may follow, will also play a major role in shaping aspects of how the JGI operates as a user facility. Based on increased availability of high-throughput sequencing, the JGI will increasingly provide to users, in addition to DNA sequencing, an array of both pre- and post-sequencing value-added capabilities to accelerate their science.« less

Internationalization Measures in Large Scale Research Projects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soeding, Emanuel; Smith, Nancy

2017-04-01

Internationalization measures in Large Scale Research Projects Large scale research projects (LSRP) often serve as flagships used by universities or research institutions to demonstrate their performance and capability to stakeholders and other interested parties. As the global competition among universities for the recruitment of the brightest brains has increased, effective internationalization measures have become hot topics for universities and LSRP alike. Nevertheless, most projects and universities are challenged with little experience on how to conduct these measures and make internationalization an cost efficient and useful activity. Furthermore, those undertakings permanently have to be justified with the Project PIs as important, valuable tools to improve the capacity of the project and the research location. There are a variety of measures, suited to support universities in international recruitment. These include e.g. institutional partnerships, research marketing, a welcome culture, support for science mobility and an effective alumni strategy. These activities, although often conducted by different university entities, are interlocked and can be very powerful measures if interfaced in an effective way. On this poster we display a number of internationalization measures for various target groups, identify interfaces between project management, university administration, researchers and international partners to work together, exchange information and improve processes in order to be able to recruit, support and keep the brightest heads to your project.

Statistical downscaling of sub-daily (6-hour) temperature in Romania, by means of artificial neural networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Birsan, Marius-Victor; Dumitrescu, Alexandru; Cǎrbunaru, Felicia

2016-04-01

The role of statistical downscaling is to model the relationship between large-scale atmospheric circulation and climatic variables on a regional and sub-regional scale, making use of the predictions of future circulation generated by General Circulation Models (GCMs) in order to capture the effects of climate change on smaller areas. The study presents a statistical downscaling model based on a neural network-based approach, by means of multi-layer perceptron networks. Sub-daily temperature data series from 81 meteorological stations over Romania, with full data records are used as predictands. As large-scale predictor, the NCEP/NCAD air temperature data at 850 hPa over the domain 20-30E / 40-50N was used, at a spatial resolution of 2.5×2.5 degrees. The period 1961-1990 was used for calibration, while the validation was realized over the 1991-2010 interval. Further, in order to estimate future changes in air temperature for 2021-2050 and 2071-2100, air temperature data at 850 hPa corresponding to the IPCC A1B scenario was extracted from the CNCM33 model (Meteo-France) and used as predictor. This work has been realized within the research project "Changes in climate extremes and associated impact in hydrological events in Romania" (CLIMHYDEX), code PN II-ID-2011-2-0073, financed by the Romanian Executive Agency for Higher Education Research, Development and Innovation Funding (UEFISCDI).

Characteristic mega-basin water storage behavior using GRACE.

PubMed

Reager, J T; Famiglietti, James S

2013-06-01

[1] A long-standing challenge for hydrologists has been a lack of observational data on global-scale basin hydrological behavior. With observations from NASA's Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission, hydrologists are now able to study terrestrial water storage for large river basins (>200,000 km 2 ), with monthly time resolution. Here we provide results of a time series model of basin-averaged GRACE terrestrial water storage anomaly and Global Precipitation Climatology Project precipitation for the world's largest basins. We address the short (10 year) length of the GRACE record by adopting a parametric spectral method to calculate frequency-domain transfer functions of storage response to precipitation forcing and then generalize these transfer functions based on large-scale basin characteristics, such as percent forest cover and basin temperature. Among the parameters tested, results show that temperature, soil water-holding capacity, and percent forest cover are important controls on relative storage variability, while basin area and mean terrain slope are less important. The derived empirical relationships were accurate (0.54 ≤  E f  ≤ 0.84) in modeling global-scale water storage anomaly time series for the study basins using only precipitation, average basin temperature, and two land-surface variables, offering the potential for synthesis of basin storage time series beyond the GRACE observational period. Such an approach could be applied toward gap filling between current and future GRACE missions and for predicting basin storage given predictions of future precipitation.

Characteristic mega-basin water storage behavior using GRACE

PubMed Central

Reager, J T; Famiglietti, James S

2013-01-01

[1] A long-standing challenge for hydrologists has been a lack of observational data on global-scale basin hydrological behavior. With observations from NASA’s Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission, hydrologists are now able to study terrestrial water storage for large river basins (>200,000 km2), with monthly time resolution. Here we provide results of a time series model of basin-averaged GRACE terrestrial water storage anomaly and Global Precipitation Climatology Project precipitation for the world’s largest basins. We address the short (10 year) length of the GRACE record by adopting a parametric spectral method to calculate frequency-domain transfer functions of storage response to precipitation forcing and then generalize these transfer functions based on large-scale basin characteristics, such as percent forest cover and basin temperature. Among the parameters tested, results show that temperature, soil water-holding capacity, and percent forest cover are important controls on relative storage variability, while basin area and mean terrain slope are less important. The derived empirical relationships were accurate (0.54 ≤ Ef ≤ 0.84) in modeling global-scale water storage anomaly time series for the study basins using only precipitation, average basin temperature, and two land-surface variables, offering the potential for synthesis of basin storage time series beyond the GRACE observational period. Such an approach could be applied toward gap filling between current and future GRACE missions and for predicting basin storage given predictions of future precipitation. PMID:24563556

Climate Change: Vulnerability Assessment for Water Resources Management in South Florida

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Obeysekera, J.

2008-12-01

South Florida is home to over 7 million people and its population is projected to increase to over 10 million people by 2025 and possibly 12-15 million by 2050. Through Federal/State/Local partnerships, the Greater Everglades is being restored under numerous water resources management projects requiring large investments of time and money. Recent climate change projections as published in the most recent report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) have the potential to cause significant impacts on flood control and water supply functions of water resources management, and on existing and future ecosystem restoration projects in south Florida. More recent estimates of sea level rise for south Florida are much higher than those in the IPCC report and if such projections become a reality, consequences may be disastrous. It is extremely important to understand the extent of global projections for various emission scenarios, their ability to represent the climatology of local regions, and the potential vulnerabilities of both climate change and sea level rise on water resources management. Implications of natural variability of the climate and teleconnections in South Florida are understood with a reasonable degree of certainty. Recent emphasis on climate change due to human-induced impacts have generated new questions on the sustainability of coastal environments with a heightened concern for the success of large-scale environmental projects throughout South Florida. An assessment of the precipitation projections of the General Circulation Models (GCMs) shows that their ability to represent the landscape of Florida and predict historical climate patterns may be limited. In order to understand the vulnerability of the water management system in south Florida under changing precipitation and evapotranspiration patterns, a sensitivity analysis using a regional-scale, hydrologic simulation model was conducted. The results show the vulnerability of projected climate change on water supply for all water sectors including the environment, and the potential impact of sea level rise on coastal regions. Questions on the potential impacts of climate change including sea level rise need to be investigated along with the uncertainties of projections to provide critical information for decision making on the planned infrastructure and operational changes in south Florida.

Talking About The Smokes: a large-scale, community-based participatory research project.

PubMed

Couzos, Sophia; Nicholson, Anna K; Hunt, Jennifer M; Davey, Maureen E; May, Josephine K; Bennet, Pele T; Westphal, Darren W; Thomas, David P

2015-06-01

To describe the Talking About The Smokes (TATS) project according to the World Health Organization guiding principles for conducting community-based participatory research (PR) involving indigenous peoples, to assist others planning large-scale PR projects. The TATS project was initiated in Australia in 2010 as part of the International Tobacco Control Policy Evaluation Project, and surveyed a representative sample of 2522 Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander adults to assess the impact of tobacco control policies. The PR process of the TATS project, which aimed to build partnerships to create equitable conditions for knowledge production, was mapped and summarised onto a framework adapted from the WHO principles. Processes describing consultation and approval, partnerships and research agreements, communication, funding, ethics and consent, data and benefits of the research. The TATS project involved baseline and follow-up surveys conducted in 34 Aboriginal community-controlled health services and one Torres Strait community. Consistent with the WHO PR principles, the TATS project built on community priorities and strengths through strategic partnerships from project inception, and demonstrated the value of research agreements and trusting relationships to foster shared decision making, capacity building and a commitment to Indigenous data ownership. Community-based PR methodology, by definition, needs adaptation to local settings and priorities. The TATS project demonstrates that large-scale research can be participatory, with strong Indigenous community engagement and benefits.

Estimation of the mid-century Etesians wind pattern from EURO-CORDEX models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dafka, Stella; Toreti, Andrea; Luterbacher, Juerg; Zanis, Prodromos; Tyrlis, Evangelos; Xoplaki, Elena

2017-04-01

The Etesians are one of the major and most prominent wind system, prevailing over the Aegean Sea during summer and early autumn. Here, projections of changes in 30-year (2021-2050) wind speeds relative to 1971-2000, under the 8.5 and 4.5 Representative Concentration Pathways, have been produced for Etesians. Future changes in the number of Etesian days and the associated large scale dynamics are also considered. We analyze seven simulations from three EURO-CORDEX regional climate models at a 12 km grid resolution. Both scenarios indicate that in most RCMs daily wind speeds are projected to increase by 1-1.5m/s over the Aegean Sea, suggesting that the current estimate of wind power potential for Aegean Sea will be increased with the greenhouse gas forcing in the coming decades (2021-2050). Wind direction at 10-m as well as the number of Etesian days have shown to undergo minor changes. The projected changes in sea level pressure and geopotential height anomalies at 500 hPa have a large spread among the seven simulations with a disperse tendency of strengthening of the ridge over the Balkans.

Vertical structure and physical processes of the Madden-Julian Oscillation: Biases and uncertainties at short range

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xavier, Prince K.; Petch, Jon C.; Klingaman, Nicholas P.; Woolnough, Steve J.; Jiang, Xianan; Waliser, Duane E.; Caian, Mihaela; Cole, Jason; Hagos, Samson M.; Hannay, Cecile; Kim, Daehyun; Miyakawa, Tomoki; Pritchard, Michael S.; Roehrig, Romain; Shindo, Eiki; Vitart, Frederic; Wang, Hailan

2015-05-01

An analysis of diabatic heating and moistening processes from 12 to 36 h lead time forecasts from 12 Global Circulation Models are presented as part of the "Vertical structure and physical processes of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO)" project. A lead time of 12-36 h is chosen to constrain the large-scale dynamics and thermodynamics to be close to observations while avoiding being too close to the initial spin-up of the models as they adjust to being driven from the Years of Tropical Convection (YOTC) analysis. A comparison of the vertical velocity and rainfall with the observations and YOTC analysis suggests that the phases of convection associated with the MJO are constrained in most models at this lead time although the rainfall in the suppressed phase is typically overestimated. Although the large-scale dynamics is reasonably constrained, moistening and heating profiles have large intermodel spread. In particular, there are large spreads in convective heating and moistening at midlevels during the transition to active convection. Radiative heating and cloud parameters have the largest relative spread across models at upper levels during the active phase. A detailed analysis of time step behavior shows that some models show strong intermittency in rainfall and differences in the precipitation and dynamics relationship between models. The wealth of model outputs archived during this project is a very valuable resource for model developers beyond the study of the MJO. In addition, the findings of this study can inform the design of process model experiments, and inform the priorities for field experiments and future observing systems.

On the twenty-first-century wet season projections over the Southeastern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Selman, Christopher; Misra, Vasu; Stefanova, Lydia; Dinapoli, Steven; Smith, Thomas J.

2013-01-01

This paper reconciles the difference in the projections of the wet season over the Southeastern United States (SEUS) from a global climate model (the Community Climate System Model Version 3 [CCSM3]) and from a regional climate model (the Regional Spectral Model [RSM]) nested in the CCSM3. The CCSM3 projects a dipole in the summer precipitation anomaly: peninsular Florida dries in the future climate, and the remainder of the SEUS region becomes wetter. The RSM forced with CCSM3 projects a universal drying of the SEUS in the late twenty-first century relative to the corresponding twentieth-century summer. The CCSM3 pattern is attributed to the “upped-ante” mechanism, whereby the atmospheric boundary layer moisture required for convection increases in a warm, statically stable global tropical environment. This criterion becomes harder to meet along convective margins, which include peninsular Florida, resulting in its drying. CCSM3 also projects a southwestward expansion of the North Atlantic subtropical high that leads to further stabilizing of the atmosphere above Florida, inhibiting convection. The RSM, because of its high (10-km grid) resolution, simulates diurnal variations in summer rainfall over SEUS reasonably well. The RSM improves upon CCSM3 through the RSM’s depiction of the diurnal variance of precipitation, which according to observations accounts for up to 40 % of total seasonal precipitation variance. In the future climate, the RSM projects a significant reduction in the diurnal variability of convection. The reduction is attributed to large-scale stabilization of the atmosphere in the CCSM3 projections.

Projections of Flood Risk using Credible Climate Signals in the Ohio River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schlef, K.; Robertson, A. W.; Brown, C.

2017-12-01

Estimating future hydrologic flood risk under non-stationary climate is a key challenge to the design of long-term water resources infrastructure and flood management strategies. In this work, we demonstrate how projections of large-scale climate patterns can be credibly used to create projections of long-term flood risk. Our study area is the northwest region of the Ohio River Basin in the United States Midwest. In the region, three major teleconnections have been previously demonstrated to affect synoptic patterns that influence extreme precipitation and streamflow: the El Nino Southern Oscillation, the Pacific North American pattern, and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. These teleconnections are strongest during the winter season (January-March), which also experiences the greatest number of peak flow events. For this reason, flood events are defined as the maximum daily streamflow to occur in the winter season. For each gage in the region, the location parameter of a log Pearson type 3 distribution is conditioned on the first principal component of the three teleconnections to create a statistical model of flood events. Future projections of flood risk are created by forcing the statistical model with projections of the teleconnections from general circulation models selected for skill. We compare the results of our method to the results of two other methods: the traditional model chain (i.e., general circulation model projections to downscaling method to hydrologic model to flood frequency analysis) and that of using the historic trend. We also discuss the potential for developing credible projections of flood events for the continental United States.

Analyzing the greenhouse gas impact potential of smallholder development actions across a global food security program

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grewer, Uwe; Nash, Julie; Gurwick, Noel; Bockel, Louis; Galford, Gillian; Richards, Meryl; Costa Junior, Ciniro; White, Julianna; Pirolli, Gillian; Wollenberg, Eva

2018-04-01

This article analyses the greenhouse gas (GHG) impact potential of improved management practices and technologies for smallholder agriculture promoted under a global food security development program. Under ‘business-as-usual’ development, global studies on the future of agriculture to 2050 project considerable increases in total food production and cultivated area. Conventional cropland intensification and conversion of natural vegetation typically result in increased GHG emissions and loss of carbon stocks. There is a strong need to understand the potential greenhouse gas impacts of agricultural development programs intended to achieve large-scale change, and to identify pathways of smallholder agricultural development that can achieve food security and agricultural production growth without drastic increases in GHG emissions. In an analysis of 134 crop and livestock production systems in 15 countries with reported impacts on 4.8 million ha, improved management practices and technologies by smallholder farmers significantly reduce GHG emission intensity of agricultural production, increase yields and reduce post-harvest losses, while either decreasing or only moderately increasing net GHG emissions per area. Investments in both production and post-harvest stages meaningfully reduced GHG emission intensity, contributing to low emission development. We present average impacts on net GHG emissions per hectare and GHG emission intensity, while not providing detailed statistics of GHG impacts at scale that are associated to additional uncertainties. While reported improvements in smallholder systems effectively reduce future GHG emissions compared to business-as-usual development, these contributions are insufficient to significantly reduce net GHG emission in agriculture beyond current levels, particularly if future agricultural production grows at projected rates.

Combined effects of climate change and forest clearing on the Amazon vegetation: Projections for 2080-2100

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cook, K. H.; Vizy, E. K.

2007-05-01

A regional climate model with resolution of 60 km coupled with a potential vegetation model is used to simulate future vegetation distributions over South America. The coupled model, which produces an accurate representation of today's climate and vegetation, is forced with increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations, sea surface temperature from a global model, and scenarios of future land use practices to predict climate and vegetation distributions for the last 2 decades of the 21st century. When only climate change is considered, under a business-as-usual scenario for global emissions, the extent of the Amazon rainforest is reduced by about 70 per cent by the end of this century, and the shrubland (caatinga) vegetation of Brazil's Nordeste region spreads westward and southward. Reductions in annual mean precipitation are widespread and rainfall becomes insufficient to support the rainforest in these regions, but some areas receive more precipitation. The length of the dry season increases in the central and southern Amazon in association with changes in the large-scale tropical circulation. Without this change in seasonality, local refugia of Amazon vegetation would be preserved and the retreat of the rainforest would be somewhat less extensive. Including various projections of future land use practices in addition to climate change may accelerate the unrecoverable demise of the rainforest and feedback to modify climate on regional space scales. The portions of the rainforest that are most vulnerable to climate change are the same as those that are under the most pressure from human activity, presenting a remarkable competition.

The Saskatchewan River Basin - a large scale observatory for water security research (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wheater, H. S.

2013-12-01

The 336,000 km2 Saskatchewan River Basin (SaskRB) in Western Canada illustrates many of the issues of Water Security faced world-wide. It poses globally-important science challenges due to the diversity in its hydro-climate and ecological zones. With one of the world's more extreme climates, it embodies environments of global significance, including the Rocky Mountains (source of the major rivers in Western Canada), the Boreal Forest (representing 30% of Canada's land area) and the Prairies (home to 80% of Canada's agriculture). Management concerns include: provision of water resources to more than three million inhabitants, including indigenous communities; balancing competing needs for water between different uses, such as urban centres, industry, agriculture, hydropower and environmental flows; issues of water allocation between upstream and downstream users in the three prairie provinces; managing the risks of flood and droughts; and assessing water quality impacts of discharges from major cities and intensive agricultural production. Superimposed on these issues is the need to understand and manage uncertain water futures, including effects of economic growth and environmental change, in a highly fragmented water governance environment. Key science questions focus on understanding and predicting the effects of land and water management and environmental change on water quantity and quality. To address the science challenges, observational data are necessary across multiple scales. This requires focussed research at intensively monitored sites and small watersheds to improve process understanding and fine-scale models. To understand large-scale effects on river flows and quality, land-atmosphere feedbacks, and regional climate, integrated monitoring, modelling and analysis is needed at large basin scale. And to support water management, new tools are needed for operational management and scenario-based planning that can be implemented across multiple scales and multiple jurisdictions. The SaskRB has therefore been developed as a large scale observatory, now a Regional Hydroclimate Project of the World Climate Research Programme's GEWEX project, and is available to contribute to the emerging North American Water Program. State-of-the-art hydro-ecological experimental sites have been developed for the key biomes, and a river and lake biogeochemical research facility, focussed on impacts of nutrients and exotic chemicals. Data are integrated at SaskRB scale to support the development of improved large scale climate and hydrological modelling products, the development of DSS systems for local, provincial and basin-scale management, and the development of related social science research, engaging stakeholders in the research and exploring their values and priorities for water security. The observatory provides multiple scales of observation and modelling required to develop: a) new climate, hydrological and ecological science and modelling tools to address environmental change in key environments, and their integrated effects and feedbacks at large catchment scale, b) new tools needed to support river basin management under uncertainty, including anthropogenic controls on land and water management and c) the place-based focus for the development of new transdisciplinary science.

NASA: Assessments of Selected Large-Scale Projects

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-03-01

REPORT DATE MAR 2011 2. REPORT TYPE 3. DATES COVERED 00-00-2011 to 00-00-2011 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Assessments Of Selected Large-Scale Projects...Volatile EvolutioN MEP Mars Exploration Program MIB Mishap Investigation Board MMRTG Multi Mission Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generator MMS Magnetospheric...probes designed to explore the Martian surface, to satellites equipped with advanced sensors to study the earth , to telescopes intended to explore the

Climate Change Impacts on Texas Water: A White Paper Assessment of the Past, Present and Future and Recommendations for Action

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Banner, Jay L.; Jackson, Charles S.; Yang, Zong-Liang

2010-09-01

Texas comprises the eastern portion of the Southwest region, where the convergence of climatological and geopolitical forces has the potential to put extreme stress on water resources. Geologic records indicate that Texas experienced large climate changes on millennial time scales in the past, and over the last thousand years, tree-ring records indicate that there were significant periods of drought in Texas. These droughts were of longer duration than the 1950s 'drought of record' that is commonly used in planning, and they occurred independently of human-induced global climate change. Although there has been a negligible net temperature increase in Texas overmore » the past century, temperatures have increased more significantly over the past three decades. Under essentially all climate model projections, Texas is susceptible to significant climate change in the future. Most projections for the 21st century show that with increasing atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, there will be an increase in temperatures across Texas and a shift to a more arid average climate. Studies agree that Texas will likely become significantly warmer and drier, yet the magnitude, timing, and regional distribution of these changes are uncertain. There is a large uncertainty in the projected changes in precipitation for Texas for the 21st century. In contrast, the more robust projected increase in temperature with its effect on evaporation, which is a dominant component in the region's hydrologic cycle, is consistent with model projections of frequent and extended droughts throughout the state. For these reasons, we recommend that Texas invest resources to investigate and anticipate the impacts of climate change on Texas water resources, with the goal of providing data to inform resource planning. This investment should support development of (1) research programs that provide policy-relevant science; (2) education programs to engage future researchers and policy-makers; and (3) connections between policy-makers, scientists, water resource managers, and other stakeholders. It is proposed that these goals may be achieved through the establishment of a Texas Climate Consortium, consisting of representatives from academia, industry, government agencies, water authorities, and other stakeholders. The mission of this consortium would be to develop the capacity to provide decision makers with the information needed to develop adaptation strategies in the face of future climate change and uncertainty.« less

Changes in Landscape-level Carbon Balance of an Arctic Coastal Plain Tundra Ecosystem Between 1970-2100, in Response to Projected Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lara, M. J.; McGuire, A. D.; Euskirchen, E. S.; Genet, H.; Sloan, V. L.; Iversen, C. M.; Norby, R. J.; Zhang, Y.; Yuan, F.

2014-12-01

Northern permafrost regions are estimated to cover 16% of the global soil area and account for approximately 50% of the global belowground organic carbon pool. However, there are considerable uncertainties regarding the fate of this soil carbon pool with projected climate warming over the next century. In northern Alaska, nearly 65% of the terrestrial surface is composed of polygonal tundra, where geomorphic land cover types such as high-, flat-, and low-center polygons influence local surface hydrology, plant community composition, nutrient and biogeochemical cycling, over small spatial scales. Due to the lack of representation of these fine-scale geomorphic types and ecosystem processes, in large-scale terrestrial ecosystem models, future uncertainties are large for this tundra region. In this study, we use a new version of the terrestrial ecosystem model (TEM), that couples a dynamic vegetation model (in which plant functional types compete for water, nitrogen, and light) with a dynamic soil organic model (in which temperature, moisture, and associated organic/inorganic carbon and nitrogen pools/fluxes vary together in vertically resolved layers) to simulate ecosystem carbon balance. We parameterized and calibrated this model using data specific to the local climate, vegetation, and soil associated with tundra geomorphic types. We extrapolate model results at a 1km2 resolution across the ~1800 km2 Barrow Peninsula using a tundra geomorphology map, describing ten dominant geomorphic tundra types (Lara et al. submitted), to estimate the likely change in landscape-level carbon balance between 1970 and 2100 in response to projected climate change. Preliminary model runs for this region indicated temporal variability in carbon and active layer dynamics, specific to tundra geomorphic type over time. Overall, results suggest that it is important to consider small-scale discrete polygonal tundra geomorphic types that control local structure and function in regional estimates of carbon balance in northern Alaska.

Theme II Joint Work Plan -2017 Collaboration and Knowledge Sharing on Large-scale Demonstration Projects

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang, Xiaoliang; Stauffer, Philip H.

This effort is designed to expedite learnings from existing and planned large demonstration projects and their associated research through effective knowledge sharing among participants in the US and China.

Problems with the North American Monsoon in CMIP/IPCC GCM Precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schiffer, N. J.; Nesbitt, S. W.

2011-12-01

Successful water management in the Desert Southwest and surrounding areas hinges on anticipating the timing and distribution of precipitation. IPCC AR4 models predict a more arid climate, more extreme precipitation events, and an earlier peak in springtime streamflow in the North American Monsoon region as the area warms. This study aims to assess the summertime skill with which general circulation models (GCMs) simulate precipitation and related dynamics over this region, a necessary precursor to reliable hydroclimate projections. Thirty-year climatologies of several GCMs in the third and fifth Climate Model Intercomparison Projects (CMIP) are statistically evaluated against each other and observed climatology for their skill in representing the location, timing, variability, character, and large-scale forcing of precipitation over the southwestern United States and northwestern Mexico. The results of this study will lend greater credence to more detailed, higher resolution studies, based on the CMIP and IPCC models, of the region's future hydrology. Our ultimate goal is to provide guidance such that decision-makers can plan future water management with more confidence.

A large set of potential past, present and future hydro-meteorological time series for the UK

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guillod, Benoit P.; Jones, Richard G.; Dadson, Simon J.; Coxon, Gemma; Bussi, Gianbattista; Freer, James; Kay, Alison L.; Massey, Neil R.; Sparrow, Sarah N.; Wallom, David C. H.; Allen, Myles R.; Hall, Jim W.

2018-01-01

Hydro-meteorological extremes such as drought and heavy precipitation can have large impacts on society and the economy. With potentially increasing risks associated with such events due to climate change, properly assessing the associated impacts and uncertainties is critical for adequate adaptation. However, the application of risk-based approaches often requires large sets of extreme events, which are not commonly available. Here, we present such a large set of hydro-meteorological time series for recent past and future conditions for the United Kingdom based on weather@home 2, a modelling framework consisting of a global climate model (GCM) driven by observed or projected sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice which is downscaled to 25 km over the European domain by a regional climate model (RCM). Sets of 100 time series are generated for each of (i) a historical baseline (1900-2006), (ii) five near-future scenarios (2020-2049) and (iii) five far-future scenarios (2070-2099). The five scenarios in each future time slice all follow the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) and sample the range of sea surface temperature and sea ice changes from CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) models. Validation of the historical baseline highlights good performance for temperature and potential evaporation, but substantial seasonal biases in mean precipitation, which are corrected using a linear approach. For extremes in low precipitation over a long accumulation period ( > 3 months) and shorter-duration high precipitation (1-30 days), the time series generally represents past statistics well. Future projections show small precipitation increases in winter but large decreases in summer on average, leading to an overall drying, consistently with the most recent UK Climate Projections (UKCP09) but larger in magnitude than the latter. Both drought and high-precipitation events are projected to increase in frequency and intensity in most regions, highlighting the need for appropriate adaptation measures. Overall, the presented dataset is a useful tool for assessing the risk associated with drought and more generally with hydro-meteorological extremes in the UK.

Climatic effects of large-scale deforestation in Earth System Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brovkin, V.; Boysen, L.; Pongratz, J.

2017-12-01

Processes in terrestrial ecosystems, to a large extent, are controlled by climate and CO2 concentration. In turn, geographical distribution of vegetation cover strongly affects heat, moisture, and momentum fluxes between land surface and atmosphere (biogeophysical effects). Anthropogenic land use and land cover changes (LULCC) are now included into Earth System Models (ESMs) in the form of historical and hypothetical future scenarios as a forcing in the Coupled Model Intercomparison project, phase 6 (CMIP6). A propagation of climatic effects from land to the ocean in ESMs allows to investigate a global climate response to LULCC in addition to analysis of local effects over deforested land. One complication in the analysis of global climatic effects of historical and future LULCC scenarios is their relatively small amplitude. To increase the signal-to-noise ratio, the Land Use Model Intercomparison Project (LUMIP) suggested an idealized deforestation simulation following a prototype of 1%-CO2 increase experiment commonly used in CMIPs. The idealized experiment allows to investigate - in a harmonized way across models - a response of land surface biophysics and climate to a large-scale deforestation of 20 million km2 distributed over the most forested parts of globe. The forest is removed linearly over a period of 50 years, with an additional 30 years with no specified change in forest cover. Boundary conditions such as CO2 concentration and other forcings are kept at the pre-industrial level. We will present results of idealized deforestation experiments and other sensitivity runs with the CMIP6-version of MPI-ESM, which will be part of the later multi-model comparison. A special focus will be put on less well investigated aspects of LULCC that the idealized setup is particularly well suited for studying, such as non-linearities of the model response to the deforestation forcing and detectability of the signal over time.

Overview of Opportunities for Co-Location of Solar Energy Technologies and Vegetation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Macknick, Jordan; Beatty, Brenda; Hill, Graham

2013-12-01

Large-scale solar facilities have the potential to contribute significantly to national electricity production. Many solar installations are large-scale or utility-scale, with a capacity over 1 MW and connected directly to the electric grid. Large-scale solar facilities offer an opportunity to achieve economies of scale in solar deployment, yet there have been concerns about the amount of land required for solar projects and the impact of solar projects on local habitat. During the site preparation phase for utility-scale solar facilities, developers often grade land and remove all vegetation to minimize installation and operational costs, prevent plants from shading panels, and minimizemore » potential fire or wildlife risks. However, the common site preparation practice of removing vegetation can be avoided in certain circumstances, and there have been successful examples where solar facilities have been co-located with agricultural operations or have native vegetation growing beneath the panels. In this study we outline some of the impacts that large-scale solar facilities can have on the local environment, provide examples of installations where impacts have been minimized through co-location with vegetation, characterize the types of co-location, and give an overview of the potential benefits from co-location of solar energy projects and vegetation. The varieties of co-location can be replicated or modified for site-specific use at other solar energy installations around the world. We conclude with opportunities to improve upon our understanding of ways to reduce the environmental impacts of large-scale solar installations.« less

Collaborative Working for Large Digitisation Projects

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yeates, Robin; Guy, Damon

2006-01-01

Purpose: To explore the effectiveness of large-scale consortia for disseminating local heritage via the web. To describe the creation of a large geographically based cultural heritage consortium in the South East of England and management lessons resulting from a major web site digitisation project. To encourage the improved sharing of experience…

A Robust Decision-Making Technique for Water Management under Decadal Scale Climate Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Callihan, L.; Zagona, E. A.; Rajagopalan, B.

2013-12-01

Robust decision making, a flexible and dynamic approach to managing water resources in light of deep uncertainties associated with climate variability at inter-annual to decadal time scales, is an analytical framework that detects when a system is in or approaching a vulnerable state. It provides decision makers the opportunity to implement strategies that both address the vulnerabilities and perform well over a wide range of plausible future scenarios. A strategy that performs acceptably over a wide range of possible future states is not likely to be optimal with respect to the actual future state. The degree of success--the ability to avoid vulnerable states and operate efficiently--thus depends on the skill in projecting future states and the ability to select the most efficient strategies to address vulnerabilities. This research develops a robust decision making framework that incorporates new methods of decadal scale projections with selection of efficient strategies. Previous approaches to water resources planning under inter-annual climate variability combining skillful seasonal flow forecasts with climatology for subsequent years are not skillful for medium term (i.e. decadal scale) projections as decision makers are not able to plan adequately to avoid vulnerabilities. We address this need by integrating skillful decadal scale streamflow projections into the robust decision making framework and making the probability distribution of this projection available to the decision making logic. The range of possible future hydrologic scenarios can be defined using a variety of nonparametric methods. Once defined, an ensemble projection of decadal flow scenarios are generated from a wavelet-based spectral K-nearest-neighbor resampling approach using historical and paleo-reconstructed data. This method has been shown to generate skillful medium term projections with a rich variety of natural variability. The current state of the system in combination with the probability distribution of the projected flow ensembles enables the selection of appropriate decision options. This process is repeated for each year of the planning horizon--resulting in system outcomes that can be evaluated on their performance and resiliency. The research utilizes the RiverSMART suite of software modeling and analysis tools developed under the Bureau of Reclamation's WaterSMART initiative and built around the RiverWare modeling environment. A case study is developed for the Gunnison and Upper Colorado River Basins. The ability to mitigate vulnerability using the framework is gauged by system performance indicators that measure the ability of the system to meet various water demands (i.e. agriculture, environmental flows, hydropower etc.). Options and strategies for addressing vulnerabilities include measures such as conservation, reallocation and adjustments to operational policy. In addition to being able to mitigate vulnerabilities, options and strategies are evaluated based on benefits, costs and reliability. Flow ensembles are also simulated to incorporate mean and variance from climate change projections for the planning horizon and the above robust decision-making framework is applied to evaluate its performance under changing climate.

Low fidelity of CORDEX and their driving experiments indicates future climatic uncertainty over Himalayan watersheds of Indus basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hasson, Shabeh ul; Böhner, Jürgen; Chishtie, Farrukh

2018-03-01

Assessment of future water availability from the Himalayan watersheds of Indus Basin (Jhelum, Kabul and upper Indus basin—UIB) is a growing concern for safeguarding the sustainable socioeconomic wellbeing downstream. This requires, before all, robust climate change information from the present-day state-of-the-art climate models. However, the robustness of climate change projections highly depends upon the fidelity of climate modeling experiments. Hence, this study assesses the fidelity of seven dynamically refined (0.44° ) experiments, performed under the framework of the coordinated regional climate downscaling experiment for South Asia (CX-SA), and additionally, their six coarse-resolution driving datasets participating in the coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 (CMIP5). We assess fidelity in terms of reproducibility of the observed climatology of temperature and precipitation, and the seasonality of the latter for the historical period (1971-2005). Based on the model fidelity results, we further assess the robustness or uncertainty of the far future climate (2061-2095), as projected under the extreme-end warming scenario of the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5. Our results show that the CX-SA and their driving CMIP5 experiments consistently feature low fidelity in terms of the chosen skill metrics, suggesting substantial cold (6-10 ° C) and wet (up to 80%) biases and underestimation of observed precipitation seasonality. Surprisingly, the CX-SA are unable to outperform their driving datasets. Further, the biases of CX-SA and of their driving CMIP5 datasets are higher in magnitude than their projected changes under RCP8.5—and hence under less extreme RCPs—by the end of 21st century, indicating uncertain future climates for the Indus Basin watersheds. Higher inter-dataset disagreements of both CMIP5 and CX-SA for their simulated historical precipitation and for its projected changes reinforce uncertain future wet/dry conditions whereas the CMIP5 projected warming is less robust owing to higher historical period uncertainty. Interestingly, a better agreement among those CX-SA experiments that have been obtained through downscaling different CMIP5 experiments with the same regional climate model (RCM) indicates the RCMs' ability of modulating the influence of lateral boundary conditions over a large domain. These findings, instead of suggesting the usual skill-based identification of 'reasonable' global or regional low fidelity experiments, rather emphasize on a paradigm shift towards improving their fidelity by exploiting the potential of meso-to-local scale climate models—preferably of those that can solely resolve global-to-local scale climatic processes—in terms of microphysics, resolution and explicitly resolved convections. Additionally, an extensive monitoring of the nival regime within the Himalayan watersheds will reduce the observational uncertainty, allowing for a more robust fidelity assessment of the climate modeling experiments.

Large-Scale Aerosol Modeling and Analysis

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-09-30

Modeling of Burning Emissions ( FLAMBE ) project, and other related parameters. Our plans to embed NAAPS inside NOGAPS may need to be put on hold...AOD, FLAMBE and FAROP at FNMOC are supported by 6.4 funding from PMW-120 for “Large-scale Atmospheric Models”, “Small-scale Atmospheric Models

Large-Scale Optimization for Bayesian Inference in Complex Systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Willcox, Karen; Marzouk, Youssef

2013-11-12

The SAGUARO (Scalable Algorithms for Groundwater Uncertainty Analysis and Robust Optimization) Project focused on the development of scalable numerical algorithms for large-scale Bayesian inversion in complex systems that capitalize on advances in large-scale simulation-based optimization and inversion methods. The project was a collaborative effort among MIT, the University of Texas at Austin, Georgia Institute of Technology, and Sandia National Laboratories. The research was directed in three complementary areas: efficient approximations of the Hessian operator, reductions in complexity of forward simulations via stochastic spectral approximations and model reduction, and employing large-scale optimization concepts to accelerate sampling. The MIT--Sandia component of themore » SAGUARO Project addressed the intractability of conventional sampling methods for large-scale statistical inverse problems by devising reduced-order models that are faithful to the full-order model over a wide range of parameter values; sampling then employs the reduced model rather than the full model, resulting in very large computational savings. Results indicate little effect on the computed posterior distribution. On the other hand, in the Texas--Georgia Tech component of the project, we retain the full-order model, but exploit inverse problem structure (adjoint-based gradients and partial Hessian information of the parameter-to-observation map) to implicitly extract lower dimensional information on the posterior distribution; this greatly speeds up sampling methods, so that fewer sampling points are needed. We can think of these two approaches as ``reduce then sample'' and ``sample then reduce.'' In fact, these two approaches are complementary, and can be used in conjunction with each other. Moreover, they both exploit deterministic inverse problem structure, in the form of adjoint-based gradient and Hessian information of the underlying parameter-to-observation map, to achieve their speedups.« less

Detailed performance and environmental monitoring of aquifer heating and cooling systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Acuna, José; Ahlkrona, Malva; Zandin, Hanna; Singh, Ashutosh

2016-04-01

The project intends to quantify the performance and environmental impact of large scale aquifer thermal energy storage, as well as point at recommendations for operating and estimating the environmental footprint of future systems. Field measurements, test of innovative equipment as well as advanced modelling work and analysis will be performed. The following aspects are introduced and covered in the presentation: -Thermal, chemical and microbiological influence of akvifer thermal energy storage systems: measurement and evaluation of real conditions and the influence of one system in operation. -Follow up of energy extraction from aquifer as compared to projected values, recommendations for improvements. -Evaluation of the most used thermal modeling tool for design and calculation of groundwater temperatures, calculations with MODFLOW/MT3DMS -Test and evaluation of optical fiber cables as a way to measure temperatures in aquifer thermal energy storages

Data Integration: Charting a Path Forward to 2035

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-02-14

New York, NY: Gotham Books, 2004. Seligman , Len. Mitre Corporation, e-mail interview, 6 Dec 2010. Singer, P.W. Wired for War: The Robotics...articles.aspx (accessed 4 Dec 2010). Ultra-Large-Scale Systems: The Software Challenge of the Future. Study lead Linda Northrup. Pittsburgh, PA: Carnegie...Virtualization?‖ 1. 41 Ultra-Large-Scale Systems: The Software Challenge of the Future. Study lead Linda Northrup. Pittsburgh, PA: Carnegie Mellon Software

Development of a large-scale transportation optimization course.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2011-11-01

"In this project, a course was developed to introduce transportation and logistics applications of large-scale optimization to graduate students. This report details what : similar courses exist in other universities, and the methodology used to gath...

From Global Climate Model Projections to Local Impacts Assessments: Analyses in Support of Planning for Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Snover, A. K.; Littell, J. S.; Mantua, N. J.; Salathe, E. P.; Hamlet, A. F.; McGuire Elsner, M.; Tohver, I.; Lee, S.

2010-12-01

Assessing and planning for the impacts of climate change require regionally-specific information. Information is required not only about projected changes in climate but also the resultant changes in natural and human systems at the temporal and spatial scales of management and decision making. Therefore, climate impacts assessment typically results in a series of analyses, in which relatively coarse-resolution global climate model projections of changes in regional climate are downscaled to provide appropriate input to local impacts models. This talk will describe recent examples in which coarse-resolution (~150 to 300km) GCM output was “translated” into information requested by decision makers at relatively small (watershed) and large (multi-state) scales using regional climate modeling, statistical downscaling, hydrologic modeling, and sector-specific impacts modeling. Projected changes in local air temperature, precipitation, streamflow, and stream temperature were developed to support Seattle City Light’s assessment of climate change impacts on hydroelectric operations, future electricity load, and resident fish populations. A state-wide assessment of climate impacts on eight sectors (agriculture, coasts, energy, forests, human health, hydrology and water resources, salmon, and urban stormwater infrastructure) was developed for Washington State to aid adaptation planning. Hydro-climate change scenarios for approximately 300 streamflow locations in the Columbia River basin and selected coastal drainages west of the Cascades were developed in partnership with major water management agencies in the Pacific Northwest to allow planners to consider how hydrologic changes may affect management objectives. Treatment of uncertainty in these assessments included: using “bracketing” scenarios to describe a range of impacts, using ensemble averages to characterize the central estimate of future conditions (given an emissions scenario), and explicitly assessing the impacts of multiple GCM ensemble members. The implications of various approaches to dealing with uncertainty, such as these, must be carefully communicated to decision makers in order for projected climate impacts to be viewed as credible and used appropriately.

Including hydrological self-regulating processes in peatland models: Effects on peatmoss drought projections.

PubMed

Nijp, Jelmer J; Metselaar, Klaas; Limpens, Juul; Teutschbein, Claudia; Peichl, Matthias; Nilsson, Mats B; Berendse, Frank; van der Zee, Sjoerd E A T M

2017-02-15

The water content of the topsoil is one of the key factors controlling biogeochemical processes, greenhouse gas emissions and biosphere - atmosphere interactions in many ecosystems, particularly in northern peatlands. In these wetland ecosystems, the water content of the photosynthetic active peatmoss layer is crucial for ecosystem functioning and carbon sequestration, and is sensitive to future shifts in rainfall and drought characteristics. Current peatland models differ in the degree in which hydrological feedbacks are included, but how this affects peatmoss drought projections is unknown. The aim of this paper was to systematically test whether the level of hydrological detail in models could bias projections of water content and drought stress for peatmoss in northern peatlands using downscaled projections for rainfall and potential evapotranspiration in the current (1991-2020) and future climate (2061-2090). We considered four model variants that either include or exclude moss (rain)water storage and peat volume change, as these are two central processes in the hydrological self-regulation of peatmoss carpets. Model performance was validated using field data of a peatland in northern Sweden. Including moss water storage as well as peat volume change resulted in a significant improvement of model performance, despite the extra parameters added. The best performance was achieved if both processes were included. Including moss water storage and peat volume change consistently reduced projected peatmoss drought frequency with >50%, relative to the model excluding both processes. Projected peatmoss drought frequency in the growing season was 17% smaller under future climate than current climate, but was unaffected by including the hydrological self-regulating processes. Our results suggest that ignoring these two fine-scale processes important in hydrological self-regulation of northern peatlands will have large consequences for projected climate change impact on ecosystem processes related to topsoil water content, such as greenhouse gas emissions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A road for a promising future for China's primates: The potential for restoration.

PubMed

Chapman, Colin A

2018-07-18

China is one of the most dynamic countries of the world and it shelters some amazing levels of biodiversity, including some very special primate species. However, primarily as a result of forest loss, most of which occurred in historical times, approximately 70% of China's primate species have less than 3 000 individuals. Here I evaluate one road for future conservation/development that could produce very positive gains for China's primates; namely forest restoration. I argue that for a large scale restoration project to be possible two conditions must be met; the right societal conditions must exist and the right knowledge must be in hand. This evaluation suggests that the restoration of native forest to support many of China's primates holds great potential to advance conservation goals and to promote primate population recovery.

Final Project Report. Scalable fault tolerance runtime technology for petascale computers

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Krishnamoorthy, Sriram; Sadayappan, P

With the massive number of components comprising the forthcoming petascale computer systems, hardware failures will be routinely encountered during execution of large-scale applications. Due to the multidisciplinary, multiresolution, and multiscale nature of scientific problems that drive the demand for high end systems, applications place increasingly differing demands on the system resources: disk, network, memory, and CPU. In addition to MPI, future applications are expected to use advanced programming models such as those developed under the DARPA HPCS program as well as existing global address space programming models such as Global Arrays, UPC, and Co-Array Fortran. While there has been amore » considerable amount of work in fault tolerant MPI with a number of strategies and extensions for fault tolerance proposed, virtually none of advanced models proposed for emerging petascale systems is currently fault aware. To achieve fault tolerance, development of underlying runtime and OS technologies able to scale to petascale level is needed. This project has evaluated range of runtime techniques for fault tolerance for advanced programming models.« less

Vulnerability of breeding waterbirds to climate change in the Prairie Pothole Region, U.S.A.

PubMed

Steen, Valerie; Skagen, Susan K; Noon, Barry R

2014-01-01

The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of the north-central U.S. and south-central Canada contains millions of small prairie wetlands that provide critical habitat to many migrating and breeding waterbirds. Due to their small size and the relatively dry climate of the region, these wetlands are considered at high risk for negative climate change effects as temperatures increase. To estimate the potential impacts of climate change on breeding waterbirds, we predicted current and future distributions of species common in the PPR using species distribution models (SDMs). We created regional-scale SDMs for the U.S. PPR using Breeding Bird Survey occurrence records for 1971-2011 and wetland, upland, and climate variables. For each species, we predicted current distribution based on climate records for 1981-2000 and projected future distributions to climate scenarios for 2040-2049. Species were projected to, on average, lose almost half their current habitat (-46%). However, individual species projections varied widely, from +8% (Upland Sandpiper) to -100% (Wilson's Snipe). Variable importance ranks indicated that land cover (wetland and upland) variables were generally more important than climate variables in predicting species distributions. However, climate variables were relatively more important during a drought period. Projected distributions of species responses to climate change contracted within current areas of distribution rather than shifting. Given the large variation in species-level impacts, we suggest that climate change mitigation efforts focus on species projected to be the most vulnerable by enacting targeted wetland management, easement acquisition, and restoration efforts.

Examples of coupled human and environmental systems from the extractive industry and hydropower sector interfaces.

PubMed

Castro, Marcia C; Krieger, Gary R; Balge, Marci Z; Tanner, Marcel; Utzinger, Jürg; Whittaker, Maxine; Singer, Burton H

2016-12-20

Large-scale corporate projects, particularly those in extractive industries or hydropower development, have a history from early in the twentieth century of creating negative environmental, social, and health impacts on communities proximal to their operations. In many instances, especially for hydropower projects, the forced resettlement of entire communities was a feature in which local cultures and core human rights were severely impacted. These projects triggered an activist opposition that progressively expanded and became influential at both the host community level and with multilateral financial institutions. In parallel to, and spurred by, this activism, a shift occurred in 1969 with the passage of the National Environmental Policy Act in the United States, which required Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) for certain types of industrial and infrastructure projects. Over the last four decades, there has been a global movement to develop a formal legal/regulatory EIA process for large industrial and infrastructure projects. In addition, social, health, and human rights impact assessments, with associated mitigation plans, were sequentially initiated and have increasingly influenced project design and relations among companies, host governments, and locally impacted communities. Often, beneficial community-level social, economic, and health programs have voluntarily been put in place by companies. These flagship programs can serve as benchmarks for community-corporate-government partnerships in the future. Here, we present examples of such positive phenomena and also focus attention on a myriad of challenges that still lie ahead.

Examples of coupled human and environmental systems from the extractive industry and hydropower sector interfaces

PubMed Central

Castro, Marcia C.; Krieger, Gary R.; Balge, Marci Z.; Tanner, Marcel; Utzinger, Jürg; Whittaker, Maxine; Singer, Burton H.

2016-01-01

Large-scale corporate projects, particularly those in extractive industries or hydropower development, have a history from early in the twentieth century of creating negative environmental, social, and health impacts on communities proximal to their operations. In many instances, especially for hydropower projects, the forced resettlement of entire communities was a feature in which local cultures and core human rights were severely impacted. These projects triggered an activist opposition that progressively expanded and became influential at both the host community level and with multilateral financial institutions. In parallel to, and spurred by, this activism, a shift occurred in 1969 with the passage of the National Environmental Policy Act in the United States, which required Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) for certain types of industrial and infrastructure projects. Over the last four decades, there has been a global movement to develop a formal legal/regulatory EIA process for large industrial and infrastructure projects. In addition, social, health, and human rights impact assessments, with associated mitigation plans, were sequentially initiated and have increasingly influenced project design and relations among companies, host governments, and locally impacted communities. Often, beneficial community-level social, economic, and health programs have voluntarily been put in place by companies. These flagship programs can serve as benchmarks for community–corporate–government partnerships in the future. Here, we present examples of such positive phenomena and also focus attention on a myriad of challenges that still lie ahead. PMID:27791077

From shared care to disease management: key-influencing factors

PubMed Central

Eijkelberg, Irmgard M.J.G.; Spreeuwenberg, Cor; Mur-Veeman, Ingrid M.; Wolffenbuttel, Bruce H.R.

2001-01-01

Abstract Background In order to improve the quality of care of chronically ill patients the traditional boundaries between primary and secondary care are questioned. To demolish these boundaries so-called ‘shared care’ projects have been initiated in which different ways of substitution of care are applied. When these projects end, disease management may offer a solution to expand the achieved co-operation between primary and secondary care. Objective Answering the question: What key factors influence the development and implementation of shared care projects from a management perspective and how are they linked? Theory The theoretical framework is based on the concept of the learning organisation. Design Reference point is a multiple case study that finally becomes a single case study. Data are collected by means of triangulation. The studied cases concern two interrelated Dutch shared care projects for type 2 diabetic patients, that in the end proceed as one disease management project. Results In these cases the predominant key-influencing factors appear to be the project management, commitment and local context, respectively. The factor project management directly links the latter two, albeit managing both appear prerequisites to its success. In practice this implies managing the factors' interdependency by the application of change strategies and tactics in a committed and skilful way. Conclusion Project management, as the most important and active key factor, is advised to cope with the interrelationships of the influencing factors in a gradually more fundamental way by using strategies and tactics that enable learning processes. Then small-scale shared care projects may change into a disease management network at a large scale, which may yield the future blueprint to proceed. PMID:16896415

Predicting future spatial distribution of SOC across entire France

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meersmans, Jeroen; Van Rompaey, Anton; Quine, Tim; Martin, Manuel; Pagé, Christian; Arrouays, Dominique

2013-04-01

Soil organic carbon (SOC) is widely recognized as a key factor controlling soil quality and as a crucial and active component of the global C-cycle. Hence, there exists a growing interest in monitoring and modeling the spatial and temporal behavior of this pool. So far, a large attempt has been made to map SOC at national scales for current and/or past situations. Despite some coarse predictions, detailed spatial SOC predictions for the future are still lacking. In this study we aim to predict future spatial evolution of SOC driven by climate and land use change for France up to the year 2100. Therefore, we combined 1) an existing model, predicting SOC as a function of soil type, climate, land use and management (Meersmans et al 2012), with 2) eight different IPCC spatial explicit climate change predictions (conducted by CERFACS) and 3) Land use change scenario predictions. We created business-as-usual land use change scenarios by extrapolating observed trends and calibrating logistic regression models, incorporating a large set of physical and socio-economic factors, at the regional level in combination with a multi-objective land allocation (MOLA) procedure. The resultant detailed projections of future SOC evolution across all regions of France, allow us to identify regions that are most likely to be characterized by a significant gain or loss of SOC and the degree to which land use decisions/outcomes control the scale of loss and gain. Therefore, this methodology and resulting maps can be considered as powerful tools to aid decision making concerning appropriate soil management, in order to enlarge SOC storage possibilities and reduce soil related CO2 fluxes.

The impact of u.s. Energy policy on international health: alternate paths into the future.

PubMed

Ratcliffe, J W; Merrill, J C

1982-01-01

Historical, sociological, and epidemiological research shows that international health and mortality levels are determined primarily not by health sector policies but, instead, by national and international policies that shape the broader sociopolitical and economic systems within which health sectors are embedded. Such policies have traditionally been considered to lie outside the domain of the health sector and, therefore, not of concern to health educators. One such national policy with the potential to powerfully influence international health and mortality levels is the looming choice between alternate American energy paths: the capital-intensive, large-scale, and centralized "hard" path of non-renewable energy resources; and the labor-intensive, small-scale, and decentralized "soft" path of renewable energy sources. Substantial effort has been directed to projecting the physical environmental impacts in the United States for both paths. But the social environmental impacts of each path and their implications for international health have been ignored. This article reviews links between alternate U.S. energy paths and alternate international health futures, and their implications for health educators around the world.

Evaluating the response of Lake Prespa (SW Balkan) to future climate change projections from a high-resolution model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van der Schriek, Tim; Varotsos, Konstantinos V.; Giannakopoulos, Christos

2017-04-01

The Mediterranean stands out globally due to its sensitivity to (future) climate change. Projections suggest that the Balkans will experience precipitation and runoff decreases of up to 30% by 2100. However, these projections show large regional spatial variability. Mediterranean lake-wetland systems are particularly threatened by projected climate changes that compound increasingly intensive human impacts (e.g. water extraction, drainage, pollution and dam-building). Protecting the remaining systems is extremely important for supporting global biodiversity. This protection should be based on a clear understanding of individual lake-wetland hydrological responses to future climate changes, which requires fine-resolution projections and a good understanding of the impact of hydro-climate variability on individual lakes. Climate change may directly affect lake level (variability), volume and water temperatures. In turn, these variables influence lake-ecology, habitats and water quality. Land-use intensification and water abstraction multiply these climate-driven changes. To date, there are no projections of future water level and -temperature of individual Mediterranean lakes under future climate scenarios. These are, however, of crucial importance to steer preservation strategies on the relevant catchment-scale. Here we present the first projections of water level and -temperature of the Prespa Lakes covering the period 2071-2100. These lakes are of global significance for biodiversity, and of great regional socio-economic importance as a water resource and tourist attraction. Impact projections are assessed by the Regional Climate Model RCA4 of the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI) driven by the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology global climate model MPI-ESM-LR under two RCP future emissions scenarios, the RCP4.5 and the RCP8.5, with the simulations carried out in the framework of EURO-CORDEX. Temperature, evapo(transpi)ration and precipitation over the Prespa catchment were simulated with this high horizontal resolution (12 × 12 km) regional climate model. Lake temperatures were derived from surface temperatures based on physical models, while water levels were calculated with the lake water balance model. Climate simulations indicate that annual- and wet season catchment precipitation does not significantly change by the end of the century. The median precipitation decreases, while precipitation variability increases. The percentage of annual precipitation falling in the wet season increases by 5-10%, indicating a stronger seasonality in the precipitation regime. Summer (lake) temperatures and lake surface evaporation will rise significantly under both explored climate change scenarios. Lake impact projections indicate that evaporation changes will cause the water level of Lake Megali Prespa to fall by 5m to 840-839m. The increased precipitation variability will cause large inter-annual water level fluctuations. Average water level may fall even further if: (1) drier summers lead to more water abstraction for irrigation, and (2) there is a reduction in winter snowfall/accumulation and thus less discharge. These findings are of key importance for developing sustainable lake water resource management in a region that is highly vulnerable to future climate change and already experiences significant water stress. Research paves the way for innovative management adaptation strategies focussed on decreasing water abstraction, for example through introducing smart irrigation and selecting more water efficient crops.

Lessons from a Large-Scale Assessment: Results from Conceptual Inventories

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Thacker, Beth; Dulli, Hani; Pattillo, Dave; West, Keith

2014-01-01

We report conceptual inventory results of a large-scale assessment project at a large university. We studied the introduction of materials and instructional methods informed by physics education research (PER) (physics education research-informed materials) into a department where most instruction has previously been traditional and a significant…

Evaluation and projected changes of precipitation statistics in convection-permitting WRF climate simulations over Central Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knist, Sebastian; Goergen, Klaus; Simmer, Clemens

2018-02-01

We perform simulations with the WRF regional climate model at 12 and 3 km grid resolution for the current and future climates over Central Europe and evaluate their added value with a focus on the daily cycle and frequency distribution of rainfall and the relation between extreme precipitation and air temperature. First, a 9 year period of ERA-Interim driven simulations is evaluated against observations; then global climate model runs (MPI-ESM-LR RCP4.5 scenario) are downscaled and analyzed for three 12-year periods: a control, a mid-of-century and an end-of-century projection. The higher resolution simulations reproduce both the diurnal cycle and the hourly intensity distribution of precipitation more realistically compared to the 12 km simulation. Moreover, the observed increase of the temperature-extreme precipitation scaling from the Clausius-Clapeyron (C-C) scaling rate of 7% K-1 to a super-adiabatic scaling rate for temperatures above 11 °C is reproduced only by the 3 km simulation. The drop of the scaling rates at high temperatures under moisture limited conditions differs between sub-regions. For both future scenario time spans both simulations suggest a slight decrease in mean summer precipitation and an increase in hourly heavy and extreme precipitation. This increase is stronger in the 3 km runs. Temperature-extreme precipitation scaling curves in the future climate are projected to shift along the 7% K-1 trajectory to higher peak extreme precipitation values at higher temperatures. The curves keep their typical shape of C-C scaling followed by super-adiabatic scaling and a drop-off at higher temperatures due to moisture limitation.

Neighborhood scale quantification of ecosystem goods and ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Ecosystem goods and services are those ecological structures and functions that humans can directly relate to their state of well-being. Ecosystem goods and services include, but are not limited to, a sufficient fresh water supply, fertile lands to produce agricultural products, shading, air and water of sufficient quality for designated uses, flood water retention, and places to recreate. The US Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) Office of Research and Development’s Tampa Bay Ecosystem Services Demonstration Project (TBESDP) modeling efforts organized existing literature values for biophysical attributes and processes related to EGS. The goal was to develop a database for informing mapped-based EGS assessments for current and future land cover/use scenarios at multiple scales. This report serves as a demonstration of applying an EGS assessment approach at the large neighborhood scale (~1,000 acres of residential parcels plus common areas). Here, we present mapped inventories of ecosystem goods and services production at a neighborhood scale within the Tampa Bay, FL region. Comparisons of the inventory between two alternative neighborhood designs are presented as an example of how one might apply EGS concepts at this scale.

Very Large Scale Integration (VLSI).

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yeaman, Andrew R. J.

Very Large Scale Integration (VLSI), the state-of-the-art production techniques for computer chips, promises such powerful, inexpensive computing that, in the future, people will be able to communicate with computer devices in natural language or even speech. However, before full-scale VLSI implementation can occur, certain salient factors must be…

An assessment of people's satisfaction with the public hearing on the Yadana Natural Gas Pipeline project.

PubMed

Ogunlana, S; Yotsinsak, T; Yisa, S

2001-11-01

Many public and large-scale construction projects in Thailand have been faced with environmental and social conflict problems. The major cause is that project sponsors do not address concerns of the public in a proper manner during EIA study. The Yadana Natural Gas Pipeline (YNGP) project is an example of a project which suffered the effects of public demonstration. A public hearing, one technique of public participation, is a good mechanism to solve conflict problems in a non-violent way which the Thai Government usually adopts to settle conflict in construction projects. In the case of the YNGP, even after the conflict was 'resolved' hostility towards the project was not eliminated, as the opponents were not satisfied with the decision. Therefore, this article examines the hearing on the YNGP project. The study found that it was too late to make any significant changes to the project after the hearing was held, most respondents were not satisfied with the project. In other words, this hearing did not improve their perception of environmental soundness of the project. The study showed that the project's impact on the environment was not properly addressed. The project sponsors did not provide sufficient publicity for the meeting and the stage at which the hearing was conducted. Suggestions are made for improving participation in future hearings.

Regional climate assessment of precipitation and temperature in Southern Punjab (Pakistan) using SimCLIM climate model for different temporal scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amin, Asad; Nasim, Wajid; Mubeen, Muhammad; Sarwar, Saleem; Urich, Peter; Ahmad, Ashfaq; Wajid, Aftab; Khaliq, Tasneem; Rasul, Fahd; Hammad, Hafiz Mohkum; Rehmani, Muhammad Ishaq Asif; Mubarak, Hussani; Mirza, Nosheen; Wahid, Abdul; Ahamd, Shakeel; Fahad, Shah; Ullah, Abid; Khan, Mohammad Nauman; Ameen, Asif; Amanullah; Shahzad, Babar; Saud, Shah; Alharby, Hesham; Ata-Ul-Karim, Syed Tahir; Adnan, Muhammad; Islam, Faisal; Ali, Qazi Shoaib

2018-01-01

Unbalanced climate during the last decades has created spatially alarming and destructive situations in the world. Anomalies in temperature and precipitation enhance the risks for crop production in large agricultural region (especially the Southern Punjab) of Pakistan. Detailed analysis of historic weather data (1980-2011) record helped in creating baseline data to compare with model projection (SimCLIM) for regional level. Ensemble of 40 GCMs used for climatic projections with greenhouse gas (GHG) representative concentration pathways (RCP-4.5, 6.0, 8.5) was selected on the baseline comparison and used for 2025 and 2050 climate projection. Precipitation projected by ensemble and regional weather observatory at baseline showed highly unpredictable nature while both temperature extremes showed 95 % confidence level on a monthly projection. Percentage change in precipitation projected by model with RCP-4.5, RCP-6.0, and RCP-8.5 showed uncertainty 3.3 to 5.6 %, 2.9 to 5.2 %, and 3.6 to 7.9 % for 2025 and 2050, respectively. Percentage change of minimum temperature from base temperature showed that 5.1, 4.7, and 5.8 % for 2025 and 9.0, 8.1, and 12.0 % increase for projection year 2050 with RCP-4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 and maximum temperature 2.7, 2.5, and 3.0 % for 2025 and 4.7, 4.4, and 6.4 % for 2050 will be increased with RCP-4.5, 6.0, and 8.5, respectively. Uneven increase in precipitation and asymmetric increase in temperature extremes in future would also increase the risk associated with management of climatic uncertainties. Future climate projection will enable us for better risk management decisions.

Incremental dynamical downscaling for probabilistic analysis based on multiple GCM projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wakazuki, Y.

2015-12-01

A dynamical downscaling method for probabilistic regional scale climate change projections was developed to cover an uncertainty of multiple general circulation model (GCM) climate simulations. The climatological increments (future minus present climate states) estimated by GCM simulation results were statistically analyzed using the singular vector decomposition. Both positive and negative perturbations from the ensemble mean with the magnitudes of their standard deviations were extracted and were added to the ensemble mean of the climatological increments. The analyzed multiple modal increments were utilized to create multiple modal lateral boundary conditions for the future climate regional climate model (RCM) simulations by adding to an objective analysis data. This data handling is regarded to be an advanced method of the pseudo-global-warming (PGW) method previously developed by Kimura and Kitoh (2007). The incremental handling for GCM simulations realized approximated probabilistic climate change projections with the smaller number of RCM simulations. Three values of a climatological variable simulated by RCMs for a mode were used to estimate the response to the perturbation of the mode. For the probabilistic analysis, climatological variables of RCMs were assumed to show linear response to the multiple modal perturbations, although the non-linearity was seen for local scale rainfall. Probability of temperature was able to be estimated within two modes perturbation simulations, where the number of RCM simulations for the future climate is five. On the other hand, local scale rainfalls needed four modes simulations, where the number of the RCM simulations is nine. The probabilistic method is expected to be used for regional scale climate change impact assessment in the future.

Physical habitat monitoring strategy (PHAMS) for reach-scale restoration effectiveness monitoring

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jones, Krista L.; O'Daniel, Scott J.; Beechie, Tim J.; Zakrajsek, John; Webster, John G.

2015-04-14

Habitat restoration efforts by the Confederated Tribes of the Umatilla Indian Reservation (CTUIR) have shifted from the site scale (1-10 meters) to the reach scale (100-1,000 meters). This shift was in response to the growing scientific emphasis on process-based restoration and to support from the 2007 Accords Agreement with the Bonneville Power Administration. With the increased size of restoration projects, the CTUIR and other agencies are in need of applicable monitoring methods for assessing large-scale changes in river and floodplain habitats following restoration. The goal of the Physical Habitat Monitoring Strategy is to outline methods that are useful for capturing reach-scale changes in surface and groundwater hydrology, geomorphology, hydrologic connectivity, and riparian vegetation at restoration projects. The Physical Habitat Monitoring Strategy aims to avoid duplication with existing regional effectiveness monitoring protocols by identifying complimentary reach-scale metrics and methods that may improve the ability of CTUIR and others to detect instream and riparian changes at large restoration projects.

Probabilistic framework for assessing the ice sheet contribution to sea level change.

PubMed

Little, Christopher M; Urban, Nathan M; Oppenheimer, Michael

2013-02-26

Previous sea level rise (SLR) assessments have excluded the potential for dynamic ice loss over much of Greenland and Antarctica, and recently proposed "upper bounds" on Antarctica's 21st-century SLR contribution are derived principally from regions where present-day mass loss is concentrated (basin 15, or B15, drained largely by Pine Island, Thwaites, and Smith glaciers). Here, we present a probabilistic framework for assessing the ice sheet contribution to sea level change that explicitly accounts for mass balance uncertainty over an entire ice sheet. Applying this framework to Antarctica, we find that ongoing mass imbalances in non-B15 basins give an SLR contribution by 2100 that: (i) is comparable to projected changes in B15 discharge and Antarctica's surface mass balance, and (ii) varies widely depending on the subset of basins and observational dataset used in projections. Increases in discharge uncertainty, or decreases in the exceedance probability used to define an upper bound, increase the fractional contribution of non-B15 basins; even weak spatial correlations in future discharge growth rates markedly enhance this sensitivity. Although these projections rely on poorly constrained statistical parameters, they may be updated with observations and/or models at many spatial scales, facilitating a more comprehensive account of uncertainty that, if implemented, will improve future assessments.

Modeling climate change impacts on groundwater resources using transient stochastic climatic scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goderniaux, Pascal; BrouyèRe, Serge; Blenkinsop, Stephen; Burton, Aidan; Fowler, Hayley J.; Orban, Philippe; Dassargues, Alain

2011-12-01

Several studies have highlighted the potential negative impact of climate change on groundwater reserves, but additional work is required to help water managers plan for future changes. In particular, existing studies provide projections for a stationary climate representative of the end of the century, although information is demanded for the near future. Such time-slice experiments fail to account for the transient nature of climatic changes over the century. Moreover, uncertainty linked to natural climate variability is not explicitly considered in previous studies. In this study we substantially improve upon the state-of-the-art by using a sophisticated transient weather generator in combination with an integrated surface-subsurface hydrological model (Geer basin, Belgium) developed with the finite element modeling software "HydroGeoSphere." This version of the weather generator enables the stochastic generation of large numbers of equiprobable climatic time series, representing transient climate change, and used to assess impacts in a probabilistic way. For the Geer basin, 30 equiprobable climate change scenarios from 2010 to 2085 have been generated for each of six different regional climate models (RCMs). Results show that although the 95% confidence intervals calculated around projected groundwater levels remain large, the climate change signal becomes stronger than that of natural climate variability by 2085. Additionally, the weather generator's ability to simulate transient climate change enabled the assessment of the likely time scale and associated uncertainty of a specific impact, providing managers with additional information when planning further investment. This methodology constitutes a real improvement in the field of groundwater projections under climate change conditions.

Structural overshoot of tree growth with climate variability and the global spectrum of drought-induced forest dieback.

PubMed

Jump, Alistair S; Ruiz-Benito, Paloma; Greenwood, Sarah; Allen, Craig D; Kitzberger, Thomas; Fensham, Rod; Martínez-Vilalta, Jordi; Lloret, Francisco

2017-09-01

Ongoing climate change poses significant threats to plant function and distribution. Increased temperatures and altered precipitation regimes amplify drought frequency and intensity, elevating plant stress and mortality. Large-scale forest mortality events will have far-reaching impacts on carbon and hydrological cycling, biodiversity, and ecosystem services. However, biogeographical theory and global vegetation models poorly represent recent forest die-off patterns. Furthermore, as trees are sessile and long-lived, their responses to climate extremes are substantially dependent on historical factors. We show that periods of favourable climatic and management conditions that facilitate abundant tree growth can lead to structural overshoot of aboveground tree biomass due to a subsequent temporal mismatch between water demand and availability. When environmental favourability declines, increases in water and temperature stress that are protracted, rapid, or both, drive a gradient of tree structural responses that can modify forest self-thinning relationships. Responses ranging from premature leaf senescence and partial canopy dieback to whole-tree mortality reduce canopy leaf area during the stress period and for a lagged recovery window thereafter. Such temporal mismatches of water requirements from availability can occur at local to regional scales throughout a species geographical range. As climate change projections predict large future fluctuations in both wet and dry conditions, we expect forests to become increasingly structurally mismatched to water availability and thus overbuilt during more stressful episodes. By accounting for the historical context of biomass development, our approach can explain previously problematic aspects of large-scale forest mortality, such as why it can occur throughout the range of a species and yet still be locally highly variable, and why some events seem readily attributable to an ongoing drought while others do not. This refined understanding can facilitate better projections of structural overshoot responses, enabling improved prediction of changes in forest distribution and function from regional to global scales. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Structural overshoot of tree growth with climate variability and the global spectrum of drought-induced forest dieback

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jump, Alistair S.; Ruiz-Benito, Paloma; Greenwood, Sarah; Allen, Craig D.; Kitzberger, Thomas; Fensham, Rod; Martínez-Vilalta, Jordi; Lloret, Francisco

2017-01-01

Ongoing climate change poses significant threats to plant function and distribution. Increased temperatures and altered precipitation regimes amplify drought frequency and intensity, elevating plant stress and mortality. Large-scale forest mortality events will have far-reaching impacts on carbon and hydrological cycling, biodiversity, and ecosystem services. However, biogeographical theory and global vegetation models poorly represent recent forest die-off patterns. Furthermore, as trees are sessile and long-lived, their responses to climate extremes are substantially dependent on historical factors. We show that periods of favourable climatic and management conditions that facilitate abundant tree growth can lead to structural overshoot of aboveground tree biomass due to a subsequent temporal mismatch between water demand and availability. When environmental favourability declines, increases in water and temperature stress that are protracted, rapid, or both, drive a gradient of tree structural responses that can modify forest self-thinning relationships. Responses ranging from premature leaf senescence and partial canopy dieback to whole-tree mortality reduce canopy leaf area during the stress period and for a lagged recovery window thereafter. Such temporal mismatches of water requirements from availability can occur at local to regional scales throughout a species geographical range. As climate change projections predict large future fluctuations in both wet and dry conditions, we expect forests to become increasingly structurally mismatched to water availability and thus overbuilt during more stressful episodes. By accounting for the historical context of biomass development, our approach can explain previously problematic aspects of large-scale forest mortality, such as why it can occur throughout the range of a species and yet still be locally highly variable, and why some events seem readily attributable to an ongoing drought while others do not. This refined understanding can facilitate better projections of structural overshoot responses, enabling improved prediction of changes in forest distribution and function from regional to global scales.

Patterns of crop cover under future climates.

PubMed

Porfirio, Luciana L; Newth, David; Harman, Ian N; Finnigan, John J; Cai, Yiyong

2017-04-01

We study changes in crop cover under future climate and socio-economic projections. This study is not only organised around the global and regional adaptation or vulnerability to climate change but also includes the influence of projected changes in socio-economic, technological and biophysical drivers, especially regional gross domestic product. The climatic data are obtained from simulations of RCP4.5 and 8.5 by four global circulation models/earth system models from 2000 to 2100. We use Random Forest, an empirical statistical model, to project the future crop cover. Our results show that, at the global scale, increases and decreases in crop cover cancel each other out. Crop cover in the Northern Hemisphere is projected to be impacted more by future climate than the in Southern Hemisphere because of the disparity in the warming rate and precipitation patterns between the two Hemispheres. We found that crop cover in temperate regions is projected to decrease more than in tropical regions. We identified regions of concern and opportunities for climate change adaptation and investment.

Projected change in characteristics of near surface temperature inversions for southeast Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ji, Fei; Evans, Jason Peter; Di Luca, Alejandro; Jiang, Ningbo; Olson, Roman; Fita, Lluis; Argüeso, Daniel; Chang, Lisa T.-C.; Scorgie, Yvonne; Riley, Matt

2018-05-01

Air pollution has significant impacts on human health. Temperature inversions, especially near surface temperature inversions, can amplify air pollution by preventing convective movements and trapping pollutants close to the ground, thus decreasing air quality and increasing health issues. This effect of temperature inversions implies that trends in their frequency, strength and duration can have important implications for air quality. In this study, we evaluate the ability of three reanalysis-driven high-resolution regional climate model (RCM) simulations to represent near surface inversions at 9 sounding sites in southeast Australia. Then we use outputs of 12 historical and future RCM simulations (each with three time periods: 1990-2009, 2020-2039, and 2060-2079) from the NSW/ACT (New South Wales/Australian Capital Territory) Regional Climate Modelling (NARCliM) project to investigate changes in near surface temperature inversions. The results show that there is a substantial increase in the strength of near surface temperature inversions over southeast Australia which suggests that future inversions may intensify poor air quality events. Near surface inversions and their future changes have clear seasonal and diurnal variations. The largest differences between simulations are associated with the driving GCMs, suggesting that the large-scale circulation plays a dominant role in near surface inversion strengths.

Application of Multi-Model CMIP5 Analysis in Future Drought Adaptation Strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Casey, M.; Luo, L.; Lang, Y.

2014-12-01

Drought influences the efficacy of numerous natural and artificial systems including species diversity, agriculture, and infrastructure. Global climate change raises concerns that extend well beyond atmospheric and hydrological disciplines - as climate changes with time, the need for system adaptation becomes apparent. Drought, as a natural phenomenon, is typically defined relative to the climate in which it occurs. Typically a 30-year reference time frame (RTF) is used to determine the severity of a drought event. This study investigates the projected future droughts over North America with different RTFs. Confidence in future hydroclimate projection is characterized by the agreement of long term (2005-2100) multi-model precipitation (P) and temperature (T) projections within the Coupled model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Drought severity and the propensity of extreme conditions are measured by the multi-scalar, probabilistic, RTF-based Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standard Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). SPI considers only P while SPEI incorporates Evapotranspiration (E) via T; comparing the two reveals the role of temperature change in future hydroclimate change. Future hydroclimate conditions, hydroclimate extremity, and CMIP5 model agreement are assessed for each Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, 8.5) in regions throughout North America for the entire year and for the boreal seasons. In addition, multiple time scales of SPI and SPEI are calculated to characterize drought at time scales ranging from short to long term. The study explores a simple, standardized method for considering adaptation in future drought assessment, which provides a novel perspective to incorporate adaptation with climate change. The result of the analysis is a multi-dimension, probabilistic summary of the hydrological (P, E) environment a natural or artificial system must adapt to over time. Studies similar to this with specified criteria (SPI/SPEI value, time scale, RCP, etc.) can provide professionals in a variety of disciplines with necessary climatic insight to develop adaptation strategies.

Mass transit : project management oversight benefits and future funding requirements

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2000-09-01

To meet the nation's transportation needs, many states, cities, and localities are building or planning mass transit projects to replace aging infrastructure or add new capacity. These transit projects are very costly and require large investments of...

North American extreme temperature events and related large scale meteorological patterns: A review of statistical methods, dynamics, modeling, and trends

DOE PAGES

Grotjahn, Richard; Black, Robert; Leung, Ruby; ...

2015-05-22

This paper reviews research approaches and open questions regarding data, statistical analyses, dynamics, modeling efforts, and trends in relation to temperature extremes. Our specific focus is upon extreme events of short duration (roughly less than 5 days) that affect parts of North America. These events are associated with large scale meteorological patterns (LSMPs). Methods used to define extreme events statistics and to identify and connect LSMPs to extreme temperatures are presented. Recent advances in statistical techniques can connect LSMPs to extreme temperatures through appropriately defined covariates that supplements more straightforward analyses. A wide array of LSMPs, ranging from synoptic tomore » planetary scale phenomena, have been implicated as contributors to extreme temperature events. Current knowledge about the physical nature of these contributions and the dynamical mechanisms leading to the implicated LSMPs is incomplete. There is a pressing need for (a) systematic study of the physics of LSMPs life cycles and (b) comprehensive model assessment of LSMP-extreme temperature event linkages and LSMP behavior. Generally, climate models capture the observed heat waves and cold air outbreaks with some fidelity. However they overestimate warm wave frequency and underestimate cold air outbreaks frequency, and underestimate the collective influence of low-frequency modes on temperature extremes. Climate models have been used to investigate past changes and project future trends in extreme temperatures. Overall, modeling studies have identified important mechanisms such as the effects of large-scale circulation anomalies and land-atmosphere interactions on changes in extreme temperatures. However, few studies have examined changes in LSMPs more specifically to understand the role of LSMPs on past and future extreme temperature changes. Even though LSMPs are resolvable by global and regional climate models, they are not necessarily well simulated so more research is needed to understand the limitations of climate models and improve model skill in simulating extreme temperatures and their associated LSMPs. Furthermore, the paper concludes with unresolved issues and research questions.« less

Clays of Ladon Basin

NASA Image and Video Library

2018-01-23

Ladon Basin was a large impact structure that was filled in by the deposits from Ladon Valles, a major ancient river on Mars as seen in this image from NASA's Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO). These wet sediments were altered into minerals such as various clay minerals. Clays imply chemistry that may have been favorable for life on ancient Mars, if anything lived there, so this could be a good spot for future exploration by rovers and perhaps return of samples to Earth. The map is projected here at a scale of 50 centimeters (19.7 inches) per pixel. [The original image scale is 52.1 centimeters (20.5 inches) per pixel (with 2 x 2 binning); objects on the order of 156 centimeters (61.4 inches) across are resolved.] North is up. https://photojournal.jpl.nasa.gov/catalog/PIA22183

The Importance of Simulation Workflow and Data Management in the Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bader, D. C.

2015-12-01

The Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy (ACME) Project is concluding its first year. Supported by the Office of Science in the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), its vision is to be "an ongoing, state-of-the-science Earth system modeling, modeling simulation and prediction project that optimizes the use of DOE laboratory resources to meet the science needs of the nation and the mission needs of DOE." Included in the "laboratory resources," is a large investment in computational, network and information technologies that will be utilized to both build better and more accurate climate models and broadly disseminate the data they generate. Current model diagnostic analysis and data dissemination technologies will not scale to the size of the simulations and the complexity of the models envisioned by ACME and other top tier international modeling centers. In this talk, the ACME Workflow component plans to meet these future needs will be described and early implementation examples will be highlighted.

Collaborative testing of turbulence models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bradshaw, P.

1992-12-01

This project, funded by AFOSR, ARO, NASA, and ONR, was run by the writer with Profs. Brian E. Launder, University of Manchester, England, and John L. Lumley, Cornell University. Statistical data on turbulent flows, from lab. experiments and simulations, were circulated to modelers throughout the world. This is the first large-scale project of its kind to use simulation data. The modelers returned their predictions to Stanford, for distribution to all modelers and to additional participants ('experimenters')--over 100 in all. The object was to obtain a consensus on the capabilities of present-day turbulence models and identify which types most deserve future support. This was not completely achieved, mainly because not enough modelers could produce results for enough test cases within the duration of the project. However, a clear picture of the capabilities of various modeling groups has appeared, and the interaction has been helpful to the modelers. The results support the view that Reynolds-stress transport models are the most accurate.

The epistemic culture in an online citizen science project: Programs, antiprograms and epistemic subjects.

PubMed

Kasperowski, Dick; Hillman, Thomas

2018-05-01

In the past decade, some areas of science have begun turning to masses of online volunteers through open calls for generating and classifying very large sets of data. The purpose of this study is to investigate the epistemic culture of a large-scale online citizen science project, the Galaxy Zoo, that turns to volunteers for the classification of images of galaxies. For this task, we chose to apply the concepts of programs and antiprograms to examine the 'essential tensions' that arise in relation to the mobilizing values of a citizen science project and the epistemic subjects and cultures that are enacted by its volunteers. Our premise is that these tensions reveal central features of the epistemic subjects and distributed cognition of epistemic cultures in these large-scale citizen science projects.

Evaluating Introductory Physics Classes in Light of the ABET Criteria: An Example from the SCALE-UP Project.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Saul, Jeffery M.; Deardorff, Duane L.; Abbott, David S.; Allain, Rhett J.; Beichner, Robert J.

The Student-Centered Activities for Large Enrollment University Physics (SCALE-UP) project at North Carolina State University (NCSU) is developing a curriculum to promote learning through in-class group activities in introductory physics classes up to 100 students. The authors are currently in Phase II of the project using a specially designed…

Patterns of fish assemblage structure and habitat use among main- and side-channel environments in the lower Kootenai River, Idaho

USGS Publications Warehouse

Watkins, Carson J.; Stevens, Bryan S.; Quist, Michael C.; Shepard, Bradley B.; Ireland, Susan C.

2015-01-01

The lower Kootenai River, Idaho, was sampled during the summers of 2012 and 2013 to evaluate its fish assemblage structure at seven sites within main- and side-channel habitats where large-scale habitat rehabilitation was undertaken. Understanding the current patterns of fish assemblage structure and their relationships with habitat is important for evaluating the effects of past and future rehabilitation projects on the river. Species-specific habitat associations were modeled, and the variables that best explained the occurrence and relative abundance of fish were identified in order to guide future habitat rehabilitation so that it benefits native species. The results indicated that the side-channel habitats supported higher species richness than the main-channel habitats and that nonnative fishes were closely associated with newly rehabilitated habitats. This research provides valuable insight on the current fish assemblages in the Kootenai River and the assemblage-level responses that may occur as a result of future rehabilitation activities.

Climate Change and Sea Level Rise: A Challenge to Science and Society

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Plag, H.

2009-12-01

Society is challenged by the risk of an anticipated rise of coastal Local Sea Level (LSL) as a consequence of future global warming. Many low-lying and often subsiding and densely populated coastal areas are under risk of increased inundation, with potentially devastating consequences for the global economy, society, and environment. Faced with a trade-off between imposing the very high costs of coastal protection and adaptation upon today's national economies and leaving the costs of potential major disasters to future generations, governments and decision makers are in need of scientific support for the development of mitigation and adaptation strategies for the coastal zone. Low-frequency to secular changes in LSL are the result of many interacting Earth system processes. The complexity of the Earth system makes it difficult to predict Global Sea Level (GSL) rise and, even more so, LSL changes over the next 100 to 200 years. Humans have re-engineered the planet and changed major features of the Earth surface and the atmosphere, thus ruling out extrapolation of past and current changes into the future as a reasonable approach. The risk of rapid changes in ocean circulation and ice sheet mass balance introduces the possibility of unexpected changes. Therefore, science is challenged with understanding and constraining the full range of plausible future LSL trajectories and with providing useful support for informed decisions. In the face of largely unpredictable future sea level changes, monitoring of the relevant processes and development of a forecasting service on realistic time scales is crucial as decision support. Forecasting and "early warning" for LSL rise would have to aim at decadal time scales, giving coastal managers sufficient time to react if the onset of rapid changes would require an immediate response. The social, environmental, and economic risks associated with potentially large and rapid LSL changes are enormous. Therefore, in the light of the current uncertainties and the unpredictable nature of some of the forcing processes for LSL changes, the focus of scientific decision support may have to shift from projections of LSL trajectories on century time scales to the development of models and monitoring systems for a forecasting service on decadal time scales. The requirements for such a LSL forecasting service and the current obstacles will be discussed.

From the past to the future: Integrating work experience into the design process.

PubMed

Bittencourt, João Marcos; Duarte, Francisco; Béguin, Pascal

2017-01-01

Integrating work activity issues into design process is a broadly discussed theme in ergonomics. Participation is presented as the main means for such integration. However, a late participation can limit the development of both project solutions and future work activity. This article presents the concept of construction of experience aiming at the articulated development of future activities and project solutions. It is a non-teleological approach where the initial concepts will be transformed by the experience built up throughout the design process. The method applied was a case study of an ergonomic participation during the design of a new laboratory complex for biotechnology research. Data was obtained through analysis of records in a simulation process using a Lego scale model and interviews with project participants. The simulation process allowed for developing new ways of working and generating changes in the initial design solutions, which enable workers to adopt their own developed strategies for conducting work more safely and efficiently in the future work system. Each project decision either opens or closes a window of opportunities for developing a future activity. Construction of experience in a non-teleological design process allows for understanding the consequences of project solutions for future work.

Climatic trends over Ethiopia: regional signals and drivers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jury, Mark R.; Funk, Christopher C.

2013-01-01

This study analyses observed and projected climatic trends over Ethiopia, through analysis of temperature and rainfall records and related meteorological fields. The observed datasets include gridded station records and reanalysis products; while projected trends are analysed from coupled model simulations drawn from the IPCC 4th Assessment. Upward trends in air temperature of + 0.03 °C year−1 and downward trends in rainfall of − 0.4 mm month−1 year−1 have been observed over Ethiopia's southwestern region in the period 1948-2006. These trends are projected to continue to 2050 according to the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab model using the A1B scenario. Large scale forcing derives from the West Indian Ocean where significant warming and increased rainfall are found. Anticyclonic circulations have strengthened over northern and southern Africa, limiting moisture transport from the Gulf of Guinea and Congo. Changes in the regional Walker and Hadley circulations modulate the observed and projected climatic trends. Comparing past and future patterns, the key features spread westward from Ethiopia across the Sahel and serve as an early warning of potential impacts.

Lessons learned from the New York State mental health response to the September 11, 2001, attacks.

PubMed

Sederer, Lloyd I; Lanzara, Carol B; Essock, Susan M; Donahue, Sheila A; Stone, James L; Galea, Sandro

2011-09-01

In the aftermath of the September 11, 2001, attacks on the World Trade Center, the public mental health system in New York City mounted the largest mental health disaster response in history, called Project Liberty. The successes and challenges of Project Liberty are evaluated. The development of Project Liberty is summarized and analyzed from the perspective of the New York State and New York City officials and scientists who led the disaster response. Lessons learned that have implications for mental health support in future disaster responses are offered. A high level of interagency collaboration, engagement of nongovernmental organizations to provide services, media education efforts, and ongoing program evaluation all contributed to the program's successes. Mental health professionals' limited experiences with trauma, options for funding treatment, duration of clinical program, and existing needs assessments methodologies all proved challenging. Project Liberty was a massive and invaluable resource during the years of rebuilding in New York City in the wake of the attacks. Challenges faced have led to lessons of generalizable import for other mental health responses to large-scale events.

Large-scale correlations in gas traced by Mg II absorbers around low-mass galaxies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kauffmann, Guinevere

2018-03-01

The physical origin of the large-scale conformity in the colours and specific star formation rates of isolated low-mass central galaxies and their neighbours on scales in excess of 1 Mpc is still under debate. One possible scenario is that gas is heated over large scales by feedback from active galactic nuclei (AGNs), leading to coherent modulation of cooling and star formation between well-separated galaxies. In this Letter, the metal line absorption catalogue of Zhu & Ménard is used to probe gas out to large projected radii around a sample of a million galaxies with stellar masses ˜1010M⊙ and photometric redshifts in the range 0.4 < z < 0.8 selected from Sloan Digital Sky Survey imaging data. This galaxy sample covers an effective volume of 2.2 Gpc3. A statistically significant excess of Mg II absorbers is present around the red-low-mass galaxies compared to their blue counterparts out to projected radii of 10 Mpc. In addition, the equivalent width distribution function of Mg II absorbers around low-mass galaxies is shown to be strongly affected by the presence of a nearby (Rp < 2 Mpc) radio-loud AGNs out to projected radii of 5 Mpc.

Geothermal projects funded under the NER 300 programme - current state of development and knowledge gained

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Uihlein, Andreas; Salto Saura, Lourdes; Sigfusson, Bergur; Lichtenvort, Kerstin; Gagliardi, Filippo

2015-04-01

Introduction The NER 300 programme, managed by the European Commission is one of the largest funding programmes for innovative low-carbon energy demonstration projects. NER 300 is so called because it is funded from the sale of 300 million emission allowances from the new entrants' reserve (NER) set up for the third phase of the EU emissions trading system (ETS). The programme aims to successfully demonstrate environmentally safe carbon capture and storage (CCS) and innovative renewable energy (RES) technologies on a commercial scale with a view to scaling up production of low-carbon technologies in the EU. Consequently, it supports a wide range of CCS and RES technologies (bioenergy, concentrated solar power, photovoltaics, geothermal, wind, ocean, hydropower, and smart grids). Funded projects and the role of geothermal projects for the programme In total, about EUR 2.1 billion have been awarded to 39 projects through the programme's 2 calls for proposals (the first awarded in December 2012, the second in July 2014). The programme has awarded around 70 mEUR funding to 3 geothermal projects in Hungary, Croatia and France (see Annex). The Hungarian geothermal project awarded funding under the first call will enter into operation at the end of 2015 and the rest are expected to start in 2016 (HR) and in 2018 (FR), respectively. Knowledge Sharing Knowledge sharing requirements are built into the legal basis of the programme as a critical tool to lower risks in bridging the transition to large-scale production of innovative renewable energy and CCS deployment. Projects have to submit annually to the European Commission relevant knowledge gained during that year in the implementation of their project. The relevant knowledge is aggregated and disseminated by the European Commission to industry, research, government, NGO and other interest groups and associations in order to provide a better understanding of the practical challenges that arise in the important step of scaling up technologies and operating them at commercial scale. The knowledge sharing of the NER 300 programme should lead to better planning and faster introduction of low carbon technologies in the future. Content of the presentation The presentation will introduce the geothermal projects that have been awarded funding, including their state-of-play. Insights and knowledge gained from the projects that have entered into operation will be shown and discussed. Furthermore, the presentation will provide an overview of the NER 300 programme.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Spagliardi, Fabio

Liquid argon Time Projection Chambers (LArTPCs) are becoming widely used as neutrino detectors because of their image-like event reconstruction which enables precision neutrino measurements. They primarily use ionisation charge to reconstruct neutrino events. It has been shown, however, that the scintillation light emitted by liquid argon could be exploited to improve their performance. As the neutrino measurements planned in the near future require large-scale experiments, their construction presents challenges in terms of both charge and light collection. In this dissertation we present solutions developed to improve the performance in both aspects of these detectors. We present a new wire tensioningmore » measurement method that allows a remote measurement of the tension of the large number wires that constitute the TPC anode. We also discuss the development and installation of WLS-compound covered foils for the SBND neutrino detector at Fermilab, which is a technique proposed t o augment light collection in LArTPCs. This included preparing a SBND-like mesh cathode and testing it in the Run III of LArIAT, a test beam detector also located at Fermilab. Finally, we present a study aimed at understanding late scintillation light emitted by recombining positive argon ions using LArIAT data, which could affect large scale surface detectors.« less

High Resolution Modelling of the Congo River's Multi-Threaded Main Stem Hydraulics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carr, A. B.; Trigg, M.; Tshimanga, R.; Neal, J. C.; Borman, D.; Smith, M. W.; Bola, G.; Kabuya, P.; Mushie, C. A.; Tschumbu, C. L.

2017-12-01

We present the results of a summer 2017 field campaign by members of the Congo River users Hydraulics and Morphology (CRuHM) project, and a subsequent reach-scale hydraulic modelling study on the Congo's main stem. Sonar bathymetry, ADCP transects, and water surface elevation data have been collected along the Congo's heavily multi-threaded middle reach, which exhibits complex in-channel hydraulic processes that are not well understood. To model the entire basin's hydrodynamics, these in-channel hydraulic processes must be parameterised since it is not computationally feasible to represent them explicitly. Furthermore, recent research suggests that relative to other large global rivers, in-channel flows on the Congo represent a relatively large proportion of total flow through the river-floodplain system. We therefore regard sufficient representation of in-channel hydraulic processes as a Congo River hydrodynamic research priority. To enable explicit representation of in-channel hydraulics, we develop a reach-scale (70 km), high resolution hydraulic model. Simulation of flow through individual channel threads provides new information on flow depths and velocities, and will be used to inform the parameterisation of a broader basin-scale hydrodynamic model. The basin-scale model will ultimately be used to investigate floodplain fluxes, flood wave attenuation, and the impact of future hydrological change scenarios on basin hydrodynamics. This presentation will focus on the methodology we use to develop a reach-scale bathymetric DEM. The bathymetry of only a small proportion of channel threads can realistically be captured, necessitating some estimation of the bathymetry of channels not surveyed. We explore different approaches to this bathymetry estimation, and the extent to which it influences hydraulic model predictions. The CRuHM project is a consortium comprising the Universities of Kinshasa, Rhodes, Dar es Salaam, Bristol, and Leeds, and is funded by Royal Society-DFID Africa Capacity Building Initiative. The project aims to strengthen institutional research capacity and advance our understanding of the hydrology, hydrodynamics and sediment dynamics of the world's second largest river system through fieldwork and development of numerical models.

Self-Organized Evolution of Sandy Coastline Shapes: Connections with Shoreline Erosion Problems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murray, A. B.; Ashton, A.

2002-12-01

Landward movement of the shoreline severely impacts property owners and communities where structures and infrastructure are built near the coast. While sea level rise will increase the average rate of coastal erosion, even a slight gradient in wave-driven alongshore sediment flux will locally overwhelm that effect, causing either shoreline accretion or enhanced erosion. Recent analysis shows that because of the nonlinear relationship between alongshore sediment flux and the angle between deep water wave crests and local shoreline orientation, in some wave climates a straight coastline is unstable (Ashton et al., Nature, 2001). When deep-water waves approach from angles greater than the one that maximizes alongshore flux, in concave-seaward shoreline segments sediment flux will diverge, causing erosion. Similarly, convex regions such as the crests of perturbations on an otherwise straight shoreline will experience accretion; perturbations will grow. When waves approach from smaller angles, the sign of the relationship between shoreline curvature and shoreline change is reversed, but any deviation from a perfectly straight coastline will still result in alongshore-inhomogeneous shoreline change. A numerical model designed to explore the long-term effects of this instability operating over a spatially extended alongshore domain has shown that as perturbations grow to finite amplitude and interact with each other, large-scale coastline structures can emerge. The character of the local and non-local interactions, and the resulting emergent structures, depends on the wave climate. The 100-km scale capes and cuspate forelands that form much of the coast of the Carolinas, USA, provides one possible natural example. Our modeling suggests that on such a shoreline, continued interactions between large-scale structures will cause continued large-scale change in coastline shape. Consequently, some coastline segments will tend to experience accentuated erosion. Communities established in these areas face discouraging future prospects. Attempts can be made to arrest the shoreline retreat on large scales-for example through large beach nourishment projects or policies that allow pervasive hard stabilization (e.g. seawall, jetties) along a coastline segment. However, even if such attempts are successful for a significant period of time, the pinning in place of some parts of an otherwise dynamic system will change the large-scale evolution of the coastline, altering the future erosion/accretion experienced at other, perhaps distant, locations. Simple properties of alongshore sediment transport could also be relevant to alongshore-inhomogeneous shoreline change (including erosion 'hot spots') on shorter time scales and smaller spatial scales. We are comparing predictions arising from the modeling, and from analysis of alongshore transport as a function of shoreline orientation, to recent observations of shoreline change ranging across spatial scales from 100s of meters to 10s of kilometers, and time scales from days to decades (List and Farris, Coastal Sediments,1999; Tebbens et al., PNAS, 2002). Considering that many other processes and factors can also influence shoreline change, initial results show a surprising degree of correlation between observations and predictions.

Projecting the Influence of Climate Change on Extreme Ground-level Ozone Events in Selected Ontario Cities =

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leung, Kinson He Yin

Ground-level ozone (O3) is perhaps one of the most familiar pollutants in Ontario, Canada because it is associated with most smog alerts in the province. O3 varies on a number of spatial and temporal scales, primarily due to meteorological variability and the impact of long-range transport of its precursors on the photochemical processes. The goal of this thesis is to project the change in the probability of occurrence of future Extreme Ground-level Ozone Events (EGLOEs) due to changes in atmospheric conditions as a result of climate change for cities located in the southern, eastern and northern parts of Ontario, Canada by using a combination of General Circulation / Global Climate Models (GCMs) and statistical downscaling. These Ontario cities are Toronto, Windsor, London, Kingston, Ottawa, Thunder Bay, Sudbury and North Bay. The successful downscaling method used in this research to generate city-specific climate change scenarios was the Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM) version 4.2.2, which is a hybrid of regression-based and stochastic weather-generator downscaling methods. The results indicate that the mean values of the daily maximum ground-level ozone concentrations could increase by up to 12-17% in Southern Ontario, 8-16% in Eastern Ontario and 1.5-9% in Northern Ontario by the end of the century due largely to changes in long-range transport. Three important themes emerge from the results: 1) the research successfully model O3 concentration in a region where long-range transport plays a substantial role. 2) The clear confirmation regarding the role of long-range transport in determining O 3 concentration in most areas of Ontario. 3) The projected increase of ozone in Ontario, due largely to an increase of long-range transport, caused by shifting atmospheric dynamics rather than a direct temperature effect on ozone production. Moreover, the results indicate that the future Southern, Eastern and Northern Ontario's EGLOEs with the O3 concentration ≥ 80 ppb (the current Ontario 1-hour Ambient Air Quality criterion for extreme ozone concentration) will have an increase of over 60%, 50% and 62% respectively by the year of 2100 under the different future scenarios in the third version of the Coupled Global Climate Model (CGCM3) and the Hadley Centre's Climate Model (HadCM3).

Projected Irrigation Requirement Under Climate Change in Korean Peninsula by Apply Global Hydrologic Model to Local Scale.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, B.; Lee, D. K.

2016-12-01

Understanding spatial distribution of irrigation requirement is critically important for agricultural water management. However, many studies considering future agricultural water management in Korea assessed irrigation requirement on watershed or administrative district scale, but have not accounted the spatial distribution. Lumped hydrologic model has typically used in Korea for simulating watershed scale irrigation requirement, while distribution hydrologic model can simulate the spatial distribution grid by grid. To overcome this shortcoming, here we applied a grid base global hydrologic model (H08) into local scale to estimate spatial distribution under future irrigation requirement of Korean Peninsula. Korea is one of the world's most densely populated countries, with also high produce and demand of rice which requires higher soil moisture than other crops. Although, most of the precipitation concentrate in particular season and disagree with crop growth season. This precipitation character makes management of agricultural water which is approximately 60% of total water usage critical issue in Korea. Furthermore, under future climate change, the precipitation predicted to be more concentrated and necessary need change of future water management plan. In order to apply global hydrological model into local scale, we selected appropriate major crops under social and local climate condition in Korea to estimate cropping area and yield, and revised the cropping area map more accurately. As a result, future irrigation requirement estimation varies under each projection, however, slightly decreased in most case. The simulation reveals, evapotranspiration increase slightly while effective precipitation also increase to balance the irrigation requirement. This finding suggest practical guideline to decision makers for further agricultural water management plan including future development of water supply plan to resolve water scarcity.

Alternative projections of the impacts of private investment on southern forests: a comparison of two large-scale forest sector models of the United States.

Treesearch

Ralph Alig; Darius Adams; John Mills; Richard Haynes; Peter Ince; Robert Moulton

2001-01-01

The TAMM/NAPAP/ATLAS/AREACHANGE(TNAA) system and the Forest and Agriculture Sector Optimization Model (FASOM) are two large-scale forestry sector modeling systems that have been employed to analyze the U.S. forest resource situation. The TNAA system of static, spatial equilibrium models has been applied to make SO-year projections of the U.S. forest sector for more...

On a Game of Large-Scale Projects Competition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nikonov, Oleg I.; Medvedeva, Marina A.

2009-09-01

The paper is devoted to game-theoretical control problems motivated by economic decision making situations arising in realization of large-scale projects, such as designing and putting into operations the new gas or oil pipelines. A non-cooperative two player game is considered with payoff functions of special type for which standard existence theorems and algorithms for searching Nash equilibrium solutions are not applicable. The paper is based on and develops the results obtained in [1]-[5].

Fortification of Indonesian unbranded vegetable oil: public-private initiative, from pilot to large scale.

PubMed

Soekirman; Soekarjo, Damayanti; Martianto, Drajat; Laillou, Arnaud; Moench-Pfanner, Regina

2012-12-01

Despite improved economic conditions, vitamin A deficiency remains a public health problem in Indonesia. This paper aims to describe the development of the Indonesian unbranded cooking oil fortification program and to discuss lessons learned to date and future steps necessary for implementation of mandatory, large-scale oil fortification with vitamin A. An historic overview of the steps involved in developing the Indonesian unbranded cooking oil fortification program is given, followed by a discussion of lessons learned and next steps needed. Indonesia's low-income groups generally consume unbranded vegetable oil, with an average consumption of approximately 25 g/day. Unbranded oil constitutes approximately 70% of the total oil traded in the country. In 2007-10, a pilot project to fortify unbranded vegetable oil was carried out in Makassar, and an effectiveness study found that the project significantly improved the serum retinol concentrations of schoolchildren. In 2010, the pilot was expanded to two provinces (West Java and North Sumatra) involving the biggest two national refineries. In 2011, a draft national standard for fortified oil was developed, which is currently under review by the National Standard Body and is expected to be mandated nationally in 2013 as announced officially by the Government of Indonesia in national and international meetings. Indonesia is a leading world supplier of cooking oil. With stakeholder support, the groundwork has been laid and efforts are moving forward to implement mandatory fortification. This project could encourage Indonesian industry to fortify more edible oils for export, thus expanding their market potential and potentially reducing vitamin A deficiency in the region.

Co-occurrence patterns of trees along macro-climatic gradients and their potential influence on the present and future distribution of Fagus sylvatica L.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Meier, E.S.; Edwards, T.C.; Kienast, Felix; Dobbertin, M.; Zimmermann, N.E.

2011-01-01

Aim During recent and future climate change, shifts in large-scale species ranges are expected due to the hypothesized major role of climatic factors in regulating species distributions. The stress-gradient hypothesis suggests that biotic interactions may act as major constraints on species distributions under more favourable growing conditions, while climatic constraints may dominate under unfavourable conditions. We tested this hypothesis for one focal tree species having three major competitors using broad-scale environmental data. We evaluated the variation of species co-occurrence patterns in climate space and estimated the influence of these patterns on the distribution of the focal species for current and projected future climates.Location Europe.Methods We used ICP Forest Level 1 data as well as climatic, topographic and edaphic variables. First, correlations between the relative abundance of European beech (Fagus sylvatica) and three major competitor species (Picea abies, Pinus sylvestris and Quercus robur) were analysed in environmental space, and then projected to geographic space. Second, a sensitivity analysis was performed using generalized additive models (GAM) to evaluate where and how much the predicted F. sylvatica distribution varied under current and future climates if potential competitor species were included or excluded. We evaluated if these areas coincide with current species co-occurrence patterns.Results Correlation analyses supported the stress-gradient hypothesis: towards favourable growing conditions of F. sylvatica, its abundance was strongly linked to the abundance of its competitors, while this link weakened towards unfavourable growing conditions, with stronger correlations in the south and at low elevations than in the north and at high elevations. The sensitivity analysis showed a potential spatial segregation of species with changing climate and a pronounced shift of zones where co-occurrence patterns may play a major role.Main conclusions Our results demonstrate the importance of species co-occurrence patterns for calibrating improved species distribution models for use in projections of climate effects. The correlation approach is able to localize European areas where inclusion of biotic predictors is effective. The climate-induced spatial segregation of the major tree species could have ecological and economic consequences. ?? 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Global terrestrial N2O budget for present and future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olin, Stefan; Xing, Xu-Ri; Wårlind, David; Eliasson, Peter; Smith, Ben; Arneth, Almut

2017-04-01

Nitrogen (N) plays an important role in plant productivity and physiology and is the main limiting nutrient in a majority of the terrestrial ecosystems. The enhanced input of anthropogenic reactive nitrogen (Nr) in agriculture have enhanced global food production, but with adverse effects on biodiversity and water quality, and substantially increased emissions of N trace gases that affect air quality and climate. Emissions of N gases affects the climate, either through cloud forming nitrogen oxides (NOx) gases or as greenhouse gases, where nitrous oxide (N2O) is the most important being approximately 300 times more potent than carbon dioxide (CO2). In this study we use the process-based global vegetation model Lund-Potsdam-Jena General Ecosystem Simulator (LPJ-GUESS) (Olin et al. 2015) that recently have incorporated a new soil N transformation scheme, adopted from Xu-Ri and Prentice (2008), which makes it possible to study the N2O emission respond to changes in climate and CO2 concentration as well as anthropogenic N enhancements on a global scale. We present here results from the validation of the new model against site-scale N2O measurements from agricultural and non-agricultural ecosystems. We will also present results from a study to examine how land use, land use change and anthropogenic N fertilisation influence historical and future global N2O emissions. This new development represents a key component within future projects in CMIP6 (LUMIP) and in EC-Earth for the EU Horizon 2020 project CRESCENDO. Olin, S., Lindeskog, M., Pugh, T., Schurgers, G., Mischurow, M., Wårlind, D., Zaehle, S., Stocker, B., Smith, B. and Arneth, A. 2015. Soil carbon management in large-scale Earth system modelling: implications for crop yields and nitrogen leaching. Earth System Dynamics, 6, 745-768. Xu-Ri and Prentice IC. 2008. Terrestrial nitrogen cycle simulation with a dynamic global vegetation model. Global Change Biology, 14, 1745-1764.

Prevented mortality and greenhouse gas emissions from historical and projected nuclear power.

PubMed

Kharecha, Pushker A; Hansen, James E

2013-05-07

In the aftermath of the March 2011 accident at Japan's Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, the future contribution of nuclear power to the global energy supply has become somewhat uncertain. Because nuclear power is an abundant, low-carbon source of base-load power, it could make a large contribution to mitigation of global climate change and air pollution. Using historical production data, we calculate that global nuclear power has prevented an average of 1.84 million air pollution-related deaths and 64 gigatonnes of CO2-equivalent (GtCO2-eq) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions that would have resulted from fossil fuel burning. On the basis of global projection data that take into account the effects of the Fukushima accident, we find that nuclear power could additionally prevent an average of 420,000-7.04 million deaths and 80-240 GtCO2-eq emissions due to fossil fuels by midcentury, depending on which fuel it replaces. By contrast, we assess that large-scale expansion of unconstrained natural gas use would not mitigate the climate problem and would cause far more deaths than expansion of nuclear power.

Prevented Mortality and Greenhouse Gas Emissions From Historical and Projected Nuclear Power

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kharecha, Pushker A.; Hansen, James E.

2013-01-01

In the aftermath of the March 2011 accident at Japan's Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, the future contribution of nuclear power to the global energy supply has become somewhat uncertain. Because nuclear power is an abundant, low-carbon source of base-load power, it could make a large contribution to mitigation of global climate change and air pollution. Using historical production data, we calculate that global nuclear power has prevented an average of 1.84 million air pollution-related deaths and 64 gigatonnes of CO2-equivalent (GtCO2-eq) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions that would have resulted from fossil fuel burning. On the basis of global projection data that take into account the effects of the Fukushima accident, we find that nuclear power could additionally prevent an average of 420 000-7.04 million deaths and 80-240 GtCO2-eq emissions due to fossil fuels by midcentury, depending on which fuel it replaces. By contrast, we assess that large-scale expansion of unconstrained natural gas use would not mitigate the climate problem and would cause far more deaths than expansion of nuclear power.

A blue carbon soil database: Tidal wetland stocks for the US National Greenhouse Gas Inventory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feagin, R. A.; Eriksson, M.; Hinson, A.; Najjar, R. G.; Kroeger, K. D.; Herrmann, M.; Holmquist, J. R.; Windham-Myers, L.; MacDonald, G. M.; Brown, L. N.; Bianchi, T. S.

2015-12-01

Coastal wetlands contain large reservoirs of carbon, and in 2015 the US National Greenhouse Gas Inventory began the work of placing blue carbon within the national regulatory context. The potential value of a wetland carbon stock, in relation to its location, soon could be influential in determining governmental policy and management activities, or in stimulating market-based CO2 sequestration projects. To meet the national need for high-resolution maps, a blue carbon stock database was developed linking National Wetlands Inventory datasets with the USDA Soil Survey Geographic Database. Users of the database can identify the economic potential for carbon conservation or restoration projects within specific estuarine basins, states, wetland types, physical parameters, and land management activities. The database is geared towards both national-level assessments and local-level inquiries. Spatial analysis of the stocks show high variance within individual estuarine basins, largely dependent on geomorphic position on the landscape, though there are continental scale trends to the carbon distribution as well. Future plans including linking this database with a sedimentary accretion database to predict carbon flux in US tidal wetlands.

MESUR: USAGE-BASED METRICS OF SCHOLARLY IMPACT

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

BOLLEN, JOHAN; RODRIGUEZ, MARKO A.; VAN DE SOMPEL, HERBERT

2007-01-30

The evaluation of scholarly communication items is now largely a matter of expert opinion or metrics derived from citation data. Both approaches can fail to take into account the myriad of factors that shape scholarly impact. Usage data has emerged as a promising complement to existing methods o fassessment but the formal groundwork to reliably and validly apply usage-based metrics of schlolarly impact is lacking. The Andrew W. Mellon Foundation funded MESUR project constitutes a systematic effort to define, validate and cross-validate a range of usage-based metrics of schlolarly impact by creating a semantic model of the scholarly communication process.more » The constructed model will serve as the basis of a creating a large-scale semantic network that seamlessly relates citation, bibliographic and usage data from a variety of sources. A subsequent program that uses the established semantic network as a reference data set will determine the characteristics and semantics of a variety of usage-based metrics of schlolarly impact. This paper outlines the architecture and methodology adopted by the MESUR project and its future direction.« less

Composite Technology for Exploration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fikes, John

2017-01-01

The CTE (Composite Technology for Exploration) Project will develop and demonstrate critical composites technologies with a focus on joints that utilize NASA expertise and capabilities. The project will advance composite technologies providing lightweight structures to support future NASA exploration missions. The CTE project will demonstrate weight-saving, performance-enhancing bonded joint technology for Space Launch System (SLS)-scale composite hardware.

The Legacy of Episodic Climatic Events in Shaping Temperate, Broadleaf Forests

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pederson, Neil; Dyer, James M.; McEwan, Ryan W.; Hessl, Amy E.; Mock, Cary J.; Orwig, David A.; Rieder, Harald E.; Cook, Benjamin I.

2015-01-01

In humid, broadleaf-dominated forests where gap dynamics and partial canopy mortality appears to dominate the disturbance regime at local scales, paleoecological evidence shows alteration at regional-scales associated with climatic change. Yet, little evidence of these broad-scale events exists in extant forests. To evaluate the potential for the occurrence of large-scale disturbance, we used 76 tree-ring collections spanning approx. 840 000 sq km and 5327 tree recruitment dates spanning approx. 1.4 million sq km across the humid eastern United States. Rotated principal component analysis indicated a common growth pattern of a simultaneous reduction in competition in 22 populations across 61 000 km2. Growth-release analysis of these populations reveals an intense and coherent canopy disturbance from 1775 to 1780, peaking in 1776. The resulting time series of canopy disturbance is so poorly described by a Gaussian distribution that it can be described as ''heavy tailed,'' with most of the years from 1775 to 1780 comprising the heavy-tail portion of the distribution. Historical documents provide no evidence that hurricanes or ice storms triggered the 1775-1780 event. Instead, we identify a significant relationship between prior drought and years with elevated rates of disturbance with an intense drought occurring from 1772 to 1775. We further find that years with high rates of canopy disturbance have a propensity to create larger canopy gaps indicating repeated opportunities for rapid change in species composition beyond the landscape scale. Evidence of elevated, regional-scale disturbance reveals how rare events can potentially alter system trajectory: a substantial portion of old-growth forests examined here originated or were substantially altered more than two centuries ago following events lasting just a few years. Our recruitment data, comprised of at least 21 species and several shade-intolerant species, document a pulse of tree recruitment at the subcontinental scale during the late-1600s suggesting that this event was severe enough to open large canopy gaps. These disturbances and their climatic drivers support the hypothesis that punctuated, episodic, climatic events impart a legacy in broadleaf-dominated forests centuries after their occurrence. Given projections of future drought, these results also reveal the potential for abrupt, meso- to large-scale forest change in broadleaf-dominated forests over future decades.

Vulnerability of marginal seas to sea level rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gomis, Damia; Jordà, Gabriel

2017-04-01

Sea level rise (SLR) is a serious thread for coastal areas and has a potential negative impact on society and economy. SLR can lead for instance to land loss, beach reduction, increase of the damage of marine storms on coastal infrastructures and to the salinization of underground water streams. It is well acknowledged that future SLR will be inhomogeneous across the globe, with regional differences of up to 100% with respect to global mean sea level (GMSL). Several studies have addressed the projections of SLR at regional scale, but most of them are based on global climate models (GCMs) that have a relatively coarse spatial resolution (>1°). In marginal seas this has proven to be a strong limitation, as their particular configurations require spatial resolutions that are not reachable by present GCMs. A paradigmatic case is the Mediterranean Sea, connected to the global ocean through the Strait of Gibraltar, a narrow passage of 14 km width. The functioning of the Mediterranean Sea involves a variety of processes including an overturning circulation, small-scale convection and a rich mesoscale field. Moreover, the long-term evolution of Mediterranean sea level has been significantly different from the global mean during the last decades. The observations of present climate and the projections for the next decades have lead some authors to hypothesize that the particular characteristics of the basin could allow Mediterranean mean sea level to evolve differently from the global mean. Assessing this point is essential to undertake proper adaptation strategies for the largely populated Mediterranean coastal areas. In this work we apply a new approach that combines regional and global projections to analyse future SLR. In a first step we focus on the quantification of the expected departures of future Mediterranean sea level from GMSL evolution and on the contribution of different processes to these departures. As a result we find that, in spite of its particularities, Mediterranean Sea level would follow global changes with departures lower than + 5 cm. In a second step we use the same methodology to obtain SLR projections at global scale in order to assess the vulnerability of other coastal areas. Namely, we define a vulnerability index based on relating the characteristics of present day variability with SLR projections under different scenarios. Results show that the averaged vulnerability index is 0.5 for scenario RCP8.5 (projected SLR is about a half of the maximum sea level recorded in the last decades). However, in the Mediterranean, the Caribbean and the Sea of Japan the vulnerability index is much higher (2.6, 2.4 and 2.1, respectively). From this point of view, therefore, these regions could be considered the most vulnerable regions in the world.

Discovering Beaten Paths in Collaborative Ontology-Engineering Projects using Markov Chains

PubMed Central

Walk, Simon; Singer, Philipp; Strohmaier, Markus; Tudorache, Tania; Musen, Mark A.; Noy, Natalya F.

2014-01-01

Biomedical taxonomies, thesauri and ontologies in the form of the International Classification of Diseases as a taxonomy or the National Cancer Institute Thesaurus as an OWL-based ontology, play a critical role in acquiring, representing and processing information about human health. With increasing adoption and relevance, biomedical ontologies have also significantly increased in size. For example, the 11th revision of the International Classification of Diseases, which is currently under active development by the World Health Organization contains nearly 50, 000 classes representing a vast variety of different diseases and causes of death. This evolution in terms of size was accompanied by an evolution in the way ontologies are engineered. Because no single individual has the expertise to develop such large-scale ontologies, ontology-engineering projects have evolved from small-scale efforts involving just a few domain experts to large-scale projects that require effective collaboration between dozens or even hundreds of experts, practitioners and other stakeholders. Understanding the way these different stakeholders collaborate will enable us to improve editing environments that support such collaborations. In this paper, we uncover how large ontology-engineering projects, such as the International Classification of Diseases in its 11th revision, unfold by analyzing usage logs of five different biomedical ontology-engineering projects of varying sizes and scopes using Markov chains. We discover intriguing interaction patterns (e.g., which properties users frequently change after specific given ones) that suggest that large collaborative ontology-engineering projects are governed by a few general principles that determine and drive development. From our analysis, we identify commonalities and differences between different projects that have implications for project managers, ontology editors, developers and contributors working on collaborative ontology-engineering projects and tools in the biomedical domain. PMID:24953242

Discovering beaten paths in collaborative ontology-engineering projects using Markov chains.

PubMed

Walk, Simon; Singer, Philipp; Strohmaier, Markus; Tudorache, Tania; Musen, Mark A; Noy, Natalya F

2014-10-01

Biomedical taxonomies, thesauri and ontologies in the form of the International Classification of Diseases as a taxonomy or the National Cancer Institute Thesaurus as an OWL-based ontology, play a critical role in acquiring, representing and processing information about human health. With increasing adoption and relevance, biomedical ontologies have also significantly increased in size. For example, the 11th revision of the International Classification of Diseases, which is currently under active development by the World Health Organization contains nearly 50,000 classes representing a vast variety of different diseases and causes of death. This evolution in terms of size was accompanied by an evolution in the way ontologies are engineered. Because no single individual has the expertise to develop such large-scale ontologies, ontology-engineering projects have evolved from small-scale efforts involving just a few domain experts to large-scale projects that require effective collaboration between dozens or even hundreds of experts, practitioners and other stakeholders. Understanding the way these different stakeholders collaborate will enable us to improve editing environments that support such collaborations. In this paper, we uncover how large ontology-engineering projects, such as the International Classification of Diseases in its 11th revision, unfold by analyzing usage logs of five different biomedical ontology-engineering projects of varying sizes and scopes using Markov chains. We discover intriguing interaction patterns (e.g., which properties users frequently change after specific given ones) that suggest that large collaborative ontology-engineering projects are governed by a few general principles that determine and drive development. From our analysis, we identify commonalities and differences between different projects that have implications for project managers, ontology editors, developers and contributors working on collaborative ontology-engineering projects and tools in the biomedical domain. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Utilizing Multi-Ensemble of Downscaled CMIP5 GCMs to Investigate Trends and Spatial and Temporal Extent of Drought in Willamette Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahmadalipour, A.; Beal, B.; Moradkhani, H.

2015-12-01

Changing climate and potential future increases in global temperature are likely to have impacts on drought characteristics and hydrologic cylce. In this study, we analyze changes in temporal and spatial extent of meteorological and hydrological droughts in future, and their trends. Three statistically downscaled datasets from NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP), Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA), and Bias Correction and Spatial Disagregation (BCSD-PSU) each consisting of 10 CMIP5 Global Climate Models (GCM) are utilized for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Further, Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) hydrologic model is used to simulate streamflow from GCM inputs and assess the hydrological drought characteristics. Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) and Streamflow Drought Index (SDI) are the two indexes used to investigate meteorological and hydrological drought, respectively. Study is done for Willamette Basin with a drainage area of 29,700 km2 accommodating more than 3 million inhabitants and 25 dams. We analyze our study for annual time scale as well as three future periods of near future (2010-2039), intermediate future (2040-2069), and far future (2070-2099). Large uncertainty is found from GCM predictions. Results reveal that meteorological drought events are expected to increase in near future. Severe to extreme drought with large areal coverage and several years of occurance is predicted around year 2030 with the likelihood of exceptional drought for both drought types. SPI is usually showing positive trends, while SDI indicates negative trends in most cases.

Testing the robustness of Citizen Science projects: Evaluating the results of pilot project COMBER.

PubMed

Chatzigeorgiou, Giorgos; Faulwetter, Sarah; Dailianis, Thanos; Smith, Vincent Stuart; Koulouri, Panagiota; Dounas, Costas; Arvanitidis, Christos

2016-01-01

Citizen Science (CS) as a term implies a great deal of approaches and scopes involving many different fields of science. The number of the relevant projects globally has been increased significantly in the recent years. Large scale ecological questions can be answered only through extended observation networks and CS projects can support this effort. Although the need of such projects is apparent, an important part of scientific community cast doubt on the reliability of CS data sets. The pilot CS project COMBER has been created in order to provide evidence to answer the aforementioned question in the coastal marine biodiversity monitoring. The results of the current analysis show that a carefully designed CS project with clear hypotheses, wide participation and data sets validation, can be a valuable tool for the large scale and long term changes in marine biodiversity pattern change and therefore for relevant management and conservation issues.

Projected impacts of climate change on hydropower potential in China

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Liu, Xingcai; Tang, Qiuhong; Voisin, Nathalie

Hydropower is an important renewable energy source in China, but it is sensitive to climate change, because the changing climate may alter hydrological conditions (e.g., river flow and reservoir storage). Future changes and associated uncertainties in China's gross hydropower potential (GHP) and developed hydropower potential (DHP) are projected using simulations from eight global hydrological models (GHMs), including a large-scale reservoir regulation model, forced by five general circulation models (GCMs) with climate data under two representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). Results show that the estimation of the present GHP of China is comparable to other studies; overall, the annual GHP is projectedmore » to change by −1.7 to 2 % in the near future (2020–2050) and increase by 3 to 6 % in the late 21st century (2070–2099). The annual DHP is projected to change by −2.2 to −5.4 % (0.7–1.7 % of the total installed hydropower capacity (IHC)) and −1.3 to −4 % (0.4–1.3 % of total IHC) for 2020–2050 and 2070–2099, respectively. Regional variations emerge: GHP will increase in northern China but decrease in southern China – mostly in south central China and eastern China – where numerous reservoirs and large IHCs currently are located. The area with the highest GHP in southwest China will have more GHP, while DHP will reduce in the regions with high IHC (e.g., Sichuan and Hubei) in the future. The largest decrease in DHP (in %) will occur in autumn or winter, when streamflow is relatively low and water use is competitive. Large ranges in hydropower estimates across GHMs and GCMs highlight the necessity of using multimodel assessments under climate change conditions. This study prompts the consideration of climate change in planning for hydropower development and operations in China, to be further combined with a socioeconomic analysis for strategic expansion.« less

Future changes in large-scale transport and stratosphere-troposphere exchange

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abalos, M.; Randel, W. J.; Kinnison, D. E.; Garcia, R. R.

2017-12-01

Future changes in large-scale transport are investigated in long-term (1955-2099) simulations of the Community Earth System Model - Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (CESM-WACCM) under an RCP6.0 climate change scenario. We examine artificial passive tracers in order to isolate transport changes from future changes in emissions and chemical processes. The model suggests enhanced stratosphere-troposphere exchange in both directions (STE), with decreasing tropospheric and increasing stratospheric tracer concentrations in the troposphere. Changes in the different transport processes are evaluated using the Transformed Eulerian Mean continuity equation, including parameterized convective transport. Dynamical changes associated with the rise of the tropopause height are shown to play a crucial role on future transport trends.

Quantifying Livestock Heat Stress Impacts in the Sahel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Broman, D.; Rajagopalan, B.; Hopson, T. M.

2014-12-01

Livestock heat stress, especially in regions of the developing world with limited adaptive capacity, has a largely unquantified impact on food supply. Though dominated by ambient air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and solar radiation all affect heat stress, which can decrease livestock growth, milk production, reproduction rates, and mortality. Indices like the thermal-humidity index (THI) are used to quantify the heat stress experienced from climate variables. Livestock experience differing impacts at different index critical thresholds that are empirically determined and specific to species and breed. This lack of understanding has been highlighted in several studies with a limited knowledge of the critical thresholds of heat stress in native livestock breeds, as well as the current and future impact of heat stress,. As adaptation and mitigation strategies to climate change depend on a solid quantitative foundation, this knowledge gap has limited such efforts. To address the lack of study, we have investigated heat stress impacts in the pastoral system of Sub-Saharan West Africa. We used a stochastic weather generator to quantify both the historic and future variability of heat stress. This approach models temperature, relative humidity, and precipitation, the climate variables controlling heat stress. Incorporating large-scale climate as covariates into this framework provides a better historical fit and allows us to include future CMIP5 GCM projections to examine the climate change impacts on heat stress. Health and production data allow us to examine the influence of this variability on livestock directly, and are considered in conjunction with the confounding impacts of fodder and water access. This understanding provides useful information to decision makers looking to mitigate the impacts of climate change and can provide useful seasonal forecasts of heat stress risk. A comparison of the current and future heat stress conditions based on climate variables for West Africa will be presented, An assessment of current and future risk was obtained by linking climatic heat stress to cattle health and production. Seasonal forecasts of heat stress are also provided by modeling the heat stress climate variables using persistent large-scale climate features.

From Project to Program: Tupange's Experience with Scaling Up Family Planning Interventions in Urban Kenya.

PubMed

Keyonzo, Nelson; Nyachae, Paul; Kagwe, Peter; Kilonzo, Margaret; Mumba, Feddis; Owino, Kenneth; Kichamu, George; Kigen, Bartilol; Fajans, Peter; Ghiron, Laura; Simmons, Ruth

2015-05-01

This paper describes how the Urban Reproductive Health Initiative in Kenya, the Tupange Project (2010-2015), successfully applied the ExpandNet approach to sustainably scale up family planning interventions, first in Machakos and Kakamega, and subsequently also in its three core cities, Nairobi, Kisumu and Mombasa. This new focus meant shifting from a "project" to a "program" approach, which required paying attention to government leadership and ownership, limiting external inputs, institutionalizing interventions in existing structures and emphasizing sustainability. The paper also highlights the project's efforts to prepare for the future scale up of Tupange's interventions in other counties to support continuing and improved access to family planning services in the new context of devolution (decentralization) in Kenya. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Climatological temperature senstivity of soil carbon turnover: Observations, simple scaling models, and ESMs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koven, C. D.; Hugelius, G.; Lawrence, D. M.; Wieder, W. R.

2016-12-01

The projected loss of soil carbon to the atmosphere resulting from climate change is a potentially large but highly uncertain feedback to warming. The magnitude of this feedback is poorly constrained by observations and theory, and is disparately represented in Earth system models. To assess the likely long-term response of soils to climate change, spatial gradients in soil carbon turnover times can identify broad-scale and long-term controls on the rate of carbon cycling as a function of climate and other factors. Here we show that the climatological temperature control on carbon turnover in the top meter of global soils is more sensitive in cold climates than in warm ones. We present a simplified model that explains the high cold-climate sensitivity using only the physical scaling of soil freeze-thaw state across climate gradients. Critically, current Earth system models (ESMs) fail to capture this pattern, however it emerges from an ESM that explicitly resolves vertical gradients in soil climate and turnover. The weak tropical temperature sensitivity emerges from a different model that explicitly resolves mineralogical control on decomposition. These results support projections of strong future carbon-climate feedbacks from northern soils and demonstrate a method for ESMs to capture this emergent behavior.

First look at changes in flood hazard in the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project ensemble

PubMed Central

Dankers, Rutger; Arnell, Nigel W.; Clark, Douglas B.; Falloon, Pete D.; Fekete, Balázs M.; Gosling, Simon N.; Heinke, Jens; Kim, Hyungjun; Masaki, Yoshimitsu; Satoh, Yusuke; Stacke, Tobias; Wada, Yoshihide; Wisser, Dominik

2014-01-01

Climate change due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of precipitation events, which is likely to affect the probability of flooding into the future. In this paper we use river flow simulations from nine global hydrology and land surface models to explore uncertainties in the potential impacts of climate change on flood hazard at global scale. As an indicator of flood hazard we looked at changes in the 30-y return level of 5-d average peak flows under representative concentration pathway RCP8.5 at the end of this century. Not everywhere does climate change result in an increase in flood hazard: decreases in the magnitude and frequency of the 30-y return level of river flow occur at roughly one-third (20–45%) of the global land grid points, particularly in areas where the hydrograph is dominated by the snowmelt flood peak in spring. In most model experiments, however, an increase in flooding frequency was found in more than half of the grid points. The current 30-y flood peak is projected to occur in more than 1 in 5 y across 5–30% of land grid points. The large-scale patterns of change are remarkably consistent among impact models and even the driving climate models, but at local scale and in individual river basins there can be disagreement even on the sign of change, indicating large modeling uncertainty which needs to be taken into account in local adaptation studies. PMID:24344290

Large-scale standardized phenotyping of strawberry in RosBREED

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

A large, multi-institutional, international, research project with the goal of bringing genomicists and plant breeders together was funded by USDA-NIFA Specialty Crop Research Initiative. Apple, cherry, peach, and strawberry are the Rosaceous crops included in the project. Many (900+) strawberry g...

On inclusion of water resource management in Earth system models - Part 1: Problem definition and representation of water demand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nazemi, A.; Wheater, H. S.

2015-01-01

Human activities have caused various changes to the Earth system, and hence the interconnections between human activities and the Earth system should be recognized and reflected in models that simulate Earth system processes. One key anthropogenic activity is water resource management, which determines the dynamics of human-water interactions in time and space and controls human livelihoods and economy, including energy and food production. There are immediate needs to include water resource management in Earth system models. First, the extent of human water requirements is increasing rapidly at the global scale and it is crucial to analyze the possible imbalance between water demands and supply under various scenarios of climate change and across various temporal and spatial scales. Second, recent observations show that human-water interactions, manifested through water resource management, can substantially alter the terrestrial water cycle, affect land-atmospheric feedbacks and may further interact with climate and contribute to sea-level change. Due to the importance of water resource management in determining the future of the global water and climate cycles, the World Climate Research Program's Global Energy and Water Exchanges project (WRCP-GEWEX) has recently identified gaps in describing human-water interactions as one of the grand challenges in Earth system modeling (GEWEX, 2012). Here, we divide water resource management into two interdependent elements, related firstly to water demand and secondly to water supply and allocation. In this paper, we survey the current literature on how various components of water demand have been included in large-scale models, in particular land surface and global hydrological models. Issues of water supply and allocation are addressed in a companion paper. The available algorithms to represent the dominant demands are classified based on the demand type, mode of simulation and underlying modeling assumptions. We discuss the pros and cons of available algorithms, address various sources of uncertainty and highlight limitations in current applications. We conclude that current capability of large-scale models to represent human water demands is rather limited, particularly with respect to future projections and coupled land-atmospheric simulations. To fill these gaps, the available models, algorithms and data for representing various water demands should be systematically tested, intercompared and improved. In particular, human water demands should be considered in conjunction with water supply and allocation, particularly in the face of water scarcity and unknown future climate.

SCALING-UP INFORMATION IN LAND-COVER DATA FOR LARGE-SCALE ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENTS

EPA Science Inventory

The NLCD project provides national-scope land-cover data for the conterminous United States. The first land-cover data set was completed in 2000, and the continuing need for recent land-cover information has motivated continuation of the project to provide current and change info...

Rotation-invariant convolutional neural networks for galaxy morphology prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dieleman, Sander; Willett, Kyle W.; Dambre, Joni

2015-06-01

Measuring the morphological parameters of galaxies is a key requirement for studying their formation and evolution. Surveys such as the Sloan Digital Sky Survey have resulted in the availability of very large collections of images, which have permitted population-wide analyses of galaxy morphology. Morphological analysis has traditionally been carried out mostly via visual inspection by trained experts, which is time consuming and does not scale to large (≳104) numbers of images. Although attempts have been made to build automated classification systems, these have not been able to achieve the desired level of accuracy. The Galaxy Zoo project successfully applied a crowdsourcing strategy, inviting online users to classify images by answering a series of questions. Unfortunately, even this approach does not scale well enough to keep up with the increasing availability of galaxy images. We present a deep neural network model for galaxy morphology classification which exploits translational and rotational symmetry. It was developed in the context of the Galaxy Challenge, an international competition to build the best model for morphology classification based on annotated images from the Galaxy Zoo project. For images with high agreement among the Galaxy Zoo participants, our model is able to reproduce their consensus with near-perfect accuracy (>99 per cent) for most questions. Confident model predictions are highly accurate, which makes the model suitable for filtering large collections of images and forwarding challenging images to experts for manual annotation. This approach greatly reduces the experts' workload without affecting accuracy. The application of these algorithms to larger sets of training data will be critical for analysing results from future surveys such as the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope.

Vertical structure and physical processes of the Madden-Julian Oscillation: Biases and uncertainties at short range

DOE PAGES

Xavier, Prince K.; Petch, Jon C.; Klingaman, Nicholas P.; ...

2015-05-26

We present an analysis of diabatic heating and moistening processes from 12 to 36 h lead time forecasts from 12 Global Circulation Models as part of the “Vertical structure and physical processes of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO)” project. A lead time of 12–36 h is chosen to constrain the large-scale dynamics and thermodynamics to be close to observations while avoiding being too close to the initial spin-up of the models as they adjust to being driven from the Years of Tropical Convection (YOTC) analysis. A comparison of the vertical velocity and rainfall with the observations and YOTC analysis suggests thatmore » the phases of convection associated with the MJO are constrained in most models at this lead time although the rainfall in the suppressed phase is typically overestimated. Although the large-scale dynamics is reasonably constrained, moistening and heating profiles have large intermodel spread. In particular, there are large spreads in convective heating and moistening at midlevels during the transition to active convection. Radiative heating and cloud parameters have the largest relative spread across models at upper levels during the active phase. A detailed analysis of time step behavior shows that some models show strong intermittency in rainfall and differences in the precipitation and dynamics relationship between models. In conclusion, the wealth of model outputs archived during this project is a very valuable resource for model developers beyond the study of the MJO. Additionally, the findings of this study can inform the design of process model experiments, and inform the priorities for field experiments and future observing systems.« less

Mid-21st century air quality at the urban scale under the influence of changed climate and emissions: case studies for Paris and Stockholm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Markakis, K.; Valari, M.; Engardt, M.; Lacressonnière, G.; Vautard, R.; Andersson, C.

2015-10-01

Ozone, PM10 and PM2.5 concentrations over Paris, France and Stockholm, Sweden were modeled at 4 and 1 \\unit{km} horizontal resolutions respectively for the present and 2050 periods employing decade-long simulations. We account for large-scale global climate change (RCP-4.5) and fine resolution bottom-up emission projections developed by local experts and quantify their impact on future pollutant concentrations. Moreover, we identify biases related to the implementation of regional scale emission projections over the study areas by comparing modeled pollutant concentrations between the fine and coarse scale simulations. We show that over urban areas with major regional contribution (e.g., the city of Stockholm) the bias due to coarse emission inventory may be significant and lead to policy misclassification. Our results stress the need to better understand the mechanism of bias propagation across the modeling scales in order to design more successful local-scale strategies. We find that the impact of climate change is spatially homogeneous in both regions, implying strong regional influence. The climate benefit for ozone (daily average and maximum) is up to -5 % for Paris and -2 % for Stockholm city. The joined climate benefit on PM2.5 and PM10 in Paris is between -10 and -5 % while for Stockholm we observe mixed trends up to 3 % depending on season and size class. In Stockholm, emission mitigation leads to concentration reductions up to 15 % for daily average and maximum ozone and 20 % for PM and through a sensitivity analysis we show that this response is entirely due to changes in emissions at the regional scale. On the contrary, over the city of Paris (VOC-limited photochemical regime), local mitigation of NOx emissions increases future ozone concentrations due to ozone titration inhibition. This competing trend between the respective roles of emission and climate change, results in an increase in 2050 daily average ozone by 2.5 % in Paris. Climate and not emission change appears to be the most influential factor for maximum ozone concentration over the city of Paris, which may be particularly interesting in a health impact perspective.

Benefits of economic criteria for water scarcity management under global changes: insights from a large-scale hydroeconomic framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neverre, Noémie; Dumas, Patrice; Nassopoulos, Hypatia

2016-04-01

Global changes are expected to exacerbate water scarcity issues in the Mediterranean region in the next decades. In this work, we investigate the impacts of reservoirs operation rules based on an economic criterion. We examine whether can they help reduce the costs of water scarcity, and whether they become more relevant under future climatic and socioeconomic conditions. We develop an original hydroeconomic model able to compare future water supply and demand on a large scale, while representing river basin heterogeneity. On the demand side, we focus on the two main sectors of water use: the irrigation and domestic sectors. Demands are projected in terms of both quantity and economic value. Irrigation requirements are computed for 12 types of crops, at the 0.5° spatial resolution, under future climatic conditions (A1B scenario). The computation of the economic benefits of irrigation water is based on a yield comparison approach between rainfed and irrigated crops. For the domestic sector, we project the combined effects of demographic growth, economic development and water cost evolution on future demands. The economic value of domestic water is defined as the economic surplus. On the supply side, we evaluate the impacts of climate change on water inflows to the reservoirs. Operating rules of the reservoirs are set up using a parameterisation-simulation-optimisation approach. The objective is to maximise water benefits. We introduce prudential parametric rules in order to take into account spatial and temporal trade-offs. The methodology is applied to Algeria at the 2050 horizon. Overall, our results show that the supply-demand imbalance and its costs will increase in most basins under future climatic and socioeconomic conditions. Our results suggest that the benefits of operating rules based on economic criteria are not unequivocally increased with global changes: in some basins the positive impact of economic prioritisation is higher under future conditions, but in other basins it is higher under historical conditions. Global changes may be an incentive to use valuation in operating rules in some basins. In other basins, the benefits of reservoirs management based on economic criteria are less pronounced; in this case, trade-offs could arise between implementing economic based operation policies or not. Given its generic nature and low data requirements, the framework developed could be implemented in other regions concerned with water scarcity and its cost, or extended to a global coverage. Water policies at the country or regional level could be assessed.

Analyzing extreme sea levels for broad-scale impact and adaptation studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wahl, T.; Haigh, I. D.; Nicholls, R. J.; Arns, A.; Dangendorf, S.; Hinkel, J.; Slangen, A.

2017-12-01

Coastal impact and adaptation assessments require detailed knowledge on extreme sea levels (ESL), because increasing damage due to extreme events is one of the major consequences of sea-level rise (SLR) and climate change. Over the last few decades, substantial research efforts have been directed towards improved understanding of past and future SLR; different scenarios were developed with process-based or semi-empirical models and used for coastal impact studies at various temporal and spatial scales to guide coastal management and adaptation efforts. Uncertainties in future SLR are typically accounted for by analyzing the impacts associated with a range of scenarios and model ensembles. ESL distributions are then displaced vertically according to the SLR scenarios under the inherent assumption that we have perfect knowledge on the statistics of extremes. However, there is still a limited understanding of present-day ESL which is largely ignored in most impact and adaptation analyses. The two key uncertainties stem from: (1) numerical models that are used to generate long time series of storm surge water levels, and (2) statistical models used for determining present-day ESL exceedance probabilities. There is no universally accepted approach to obtain such values for broad-scale flood risk assessments and while substantial research has explored SLR uncertainties, we quantify, for the first time globally, key uncertainties in ESL estimates. We find that contemporary ESL uncertainties exceed those from SLR projections and, assuming that we meet the Paris agreement, the projected SLR itself by the end of the century. Our results highlight the necessity to further improve our understanding of uncertainties in ESL estimates through (1) continued improvement of numerical and statistical models to simulate and analyze coastal water levels and (2) exploit the rich observational database and continue data archeology to obtain longer time series and remove model bias. Finally, ESL uncertainties need to be integrated with SLR uncertainties. Otherwise, important improvements in providing more robust SLR projections are of less benefit for broad-scale impact and adaptation studies and decision processes.

The NASA Carbon Monitoring System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hurtt, G. C.

2015-12-01

Greenhouse gas emission inventories, forest carbon sequestration programs (e.g., Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD and REDD+), cap-and-trade systems, self-reporting programs, and their associated monitoring, reporting and verification (MRV) frameworks depend upon data that are accurate, systematic, practical, and transparent. A sustained, observationally-driven carbon monitoring system using remote sensing data has the potential to significantly improve the relevant carbon cycle information base for the U.S. and world. Initiated in 2010, NASA's Carbon Monitoring System (CMS) project is prototyping and conducting pilot studies to evaluate technological approaches and methodologies to meet carbon monitoring and reporting requirements for multiple users and over multiple scales of interest. NASA's approach emphasizes exploitation of the satellite remote sensing resources, computational capabilities, scientific knowledge, airborne science capabilities, and end-to-end system expertise that are major strengths of the NASA Earth Science program. Through user engagement activities, the NASA CMS project is taking specific actions to be responsive to the needs of stakeholders working to improve carbon MRV frameworks. The first phase of NASA CMS projects focused on developing products for U.S. biomass/carbon stocks and global carbon fluxes, and on scoping studies to identify stakeholders and explore other potential carbon products. The second phase built upon these initial efforts, with a large expansion in prototyping activities across a diversity of systems, scales, and regions, including research focused on prototype MRV systems and utilization of COTS technologies. Priorities for the future include: 1) utilizing future satellite sensors, 2) prototyping with commercial off-the-shelf technology, 3) expanding the range of prototyping activities, 4) rigorous evaluation, uncertainty quantification, and error characterization, 5) stakeholder engagement, 6) partnerships with other U.S. agencies and international partners, and 7) modeling and data assimilation.

A complexity science-based framework for global joint operations analysis to support force projection: LDRD Final Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lawton, Craig R.

2015-01-01

The military is undergoing a significant transformation as it modernizes for the information age and adapts to address an emerging asymmetric threat beyond traditional cold war era adversaries. Techniques such as traditional large-scale, joint services war gaming analysis are no longer adequate to support program evaluation activities and mission planning analysis at the enterprise level because the operating environment is evolving too quickly. New analytical capabilities are necessary to address modernization of the Department of Defense (DoD) enterprise. This presents significant opportunity to Sandia in supporting the nation at this transformational enterprise scale. Although Sandia has significant experience with engineeringmore » system of systems (SoS) and Complex Adaptive System of Systems (CASoS), significant fundamental research is required to develop modeling, simulation and analysis capabilities at the enterprise scale. This report documents an enterprise modeling framework which will enable senior level decision makers to better understand their enterprise and required future investments.« less

Successful contracting of prevention services: fighting malnutrition in Senegal and Madagascar.

PubMed

Marek, T; Diallo, I; Ndiaye, B; Rakotosalama, J

1999-12-01

There are very few documented large-scale successes in nutrition in Africa, and virtually no consideration of contracting for preventive services. This paper describes two successful large-scale community nutrition projects in Africa as examples of what can be done in prevention using the contracting approach in rural as well as urban areas. The two case-studies are the Secaline project in Madagascar, and the Community Nutrition Project in Senegal. The article explains what is meant by 'success' in the context of these two projects, how these results were achieved, and how certain bottlenecks were avoided. Both projects are very similar in the type of service they provide, and in combining private administration with public finance. The article illustrates that contracting out is a feasible option to be seriously considered for organizing certain prevention programmes on a large scale. There are strong indications from these projects of success in terms of reducing malnutrition, replicability and scale, and community involvement. When choosing that option, a government can tap available private local human resources through contracting out, rather than delivering those services by the public sector. However, as was done in both projects studied, consideration needs to be given to using a contract management unit for execution and monitoring, which costs 13-17% of the total project's budget. Rigorous assessments of the cost-effectiveness of contracted services are not available, but improved health outcomes, targeting of the poor, and basic cost data suggest that the programmes may well be relatively cost-effective. Although the contracting approach is not presented as the panacea to solve the malnutrition problem faced by Africa, it can certainly provide an alternative in many countries to increase coverage and quality of services.

Projected Changes in Temperature and Precipitation Extremes over China as Measured by 50-yr Return Values and Periods Based on a CMIP5 Ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Ying; Gao, Xuejie; Giorgi, Filippo; Zhou, Botao; Shi, Ying; Wu, Jie; Zhang, Yongxiang

2018-04-01

Future changes in the 50-yr return level for temperature and precipitation extremes over mainland China are investigated based on a CMIP5 multi-model ensemble for RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The following indices are analyzed: TXx and TNn (the annual maximum and minimum of daily maximum and minimum surface temperature), RX5day (the annual maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation) and CDD (maximum annual number of consecutive dry days). After first validating the model performance, future changes in the 50-yr return values and return periods for these indices are investigated along with the inter-model spread. Multi-model median changes show an increase in the 50-yr return values of TXx and a decrease for TNn, more specifically, by the end of the 21st century under RCP8.5, the present day 50-yr return period of warm events is reduced to 1.2 yr, while extreme cold events over the country are projected to essentially disappear. A general increase in RX5day 50-yr return values is found in the future. By the end of the 21st century under RCP8.5, events of the present RX5day 50-yr return period are projected to reduce to < 10 yr over most of China. Changes in CDD-50 show a dipole pattern over China, with a decrease in the values and longer return periods in the north, and vice versa in the south. Our study also highlights the need for further improvements in the representation of extreme events in climate models to assess the future risks and engineering design related to large-scale infrastructure in China.

Modelling the effectiveness of grass buffer strips in managing muddy floods under a changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mullan, Donal; Vandaele, Karel; Boardman, John; Meneely, John; Crossley, Laura H.

2016-10-01

Muddy floods occur when rainfall generates runoff on agricultural land, detaching and transporting sediment into the surrounding natural and built environment. In the Belgian Loess Belt, muddy floods occur regularly and lead to considerable economic costs associated with damage to property and infrastructure. Mitigation measures designed to manage the problem have been tested in a pilot area within Flanders and were found to be cost-effective within three years. This study assesses whether these mitigation measures will remain effective under a changing climate. To test this, the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model was used to examine muddy flooding diagnostics (precipitation, runoff, soil loss and sediment yield) for a case study hillslope in Flanders where grass buffer strips are currently used as a mitigation measure. The model was run for present day conditions and then under 33 future site-specific climate scenarios. These future scenarios were generated from three earth system models driven by four representative concentration pathways and downscaled using quantile mapping and the weather generator CLIGEN. Results reveal that under the majority of future scenarios, muddy flooding diagnostics are projected to increase, mostly as a consequence of large scale precipitation events rather than mean changes. The magnitude of muddy flood events for a given return period is also generally projected to increase. These findings indicate that present day mitigation measures may have a reduced capacity to manage muddy flooding given the changes imposed by a warming climate with an enhanced hydrological cycle. Revisions to the design of existing mitigation measures within existing policy frameworks are considered the most effective way to account for the impacts of climate change in future mitigation planning.

An empirical perspective for understanding climate change impacts in Switzerland

USGS Publications Warehouse

Henne, Paul; Bigalke, Moritz; Büntgen, Ulf; Colombaroli, Daniele; Conedera, Marco; Feller, Urs; Frank, David; Fuhrer, Jürg; Grosjean, Martin; Heiri, Oliver; Luterbacher, Jürg; Mestrot, Adrien; Rigling, Andreas; Rössler, Ole; Rohr, Christian; Rutishauser, This; Schwikowski, Margit; Stampfli, Andreas; Szidat, Sönke; Theurillat, Jean-Paul; Weingartner, Rolf; Wilcke, Wolfgan; Tinner, Willy

2018-01-01

Planning for the future requires a detailed understanding of how climate change affects a wide range of systems at spatial scales that are relevant to humans. Understanding of climate change impacts can be gained from observational and reconstruction approaches and from numerical models that apply existing knowledge to climate change scenarios. Although modeling approaches are prominent in climate change assessments, observations and reconstructions provide insights that cannot be derived from simulations alone, especially at local to regional scales where climate adaptation policies are implemented. Here, we review the wealth of understanding that emerged from observations and reconstructions of ongoing and past climate change impacts in Switzerland, with wider applicability in Europe. We draw examples from hydrological, alpine, forest, and agricultural systems, which are of paramount societal importance, and are projected to undergo important changes by the end of this century. For each system, we review existing model-based projections, present what is known from observations, and discuss how empirical evidence may help improve future projections. A particular focus is given to better understanding thresholds, tipping points and feedbacks that may operate on different time scales. Observational approaches provide the grounding in evidence that is needed to develop local to regional climate adaptation strategies. Our review demonstrates that observational approaches should ideally have a synergistic relationship with modeling in identifying inconsistencies in projections as well as avenues for improvement. They are critical for uncovering unexpected relationships between climate and agricultural, natural, and hydrological systems that will be important to society in the future.

The Amma-Sat Database

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramage, K.; Desbois, M.; Eymard, L.

2004-12-01

The African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis project is a French initiative, which aims at identifying and analysing in details the multidisciplinary and multi-scales processes that lead to a better understanding of the physical mechanisms linked to the African Monsoon. The main components of the African Monsoon are: Atmospheric Dynamics, the Continental Water Cycle, Atmospheric Chemistry, Oceanic and Continental Surface Conditions. Satellites contribute to various objectives of the project both for process analysis and for large scale-long term studies: some series of satellites (METEOSAT, NOAA,.) have been flown for more than 20 years, ensuring a good quality monitoring of some of the West African atmosphere and surface characteristics. Moreover, several recent missions, and several projects will strongly improve and complement this survey. The AMMA project offers an opportunity to develop the exploitation of satellite data and to make collaboration between specialist and non-specialist users. In this purpose databases are being developed to collect all past and future satellite data related to the African Monsoon. It will then be possible to compare different types of data from different resolution, to validate satellite data with in situ measurements or numerical simulations. AMMA-SAT database main goal is to offer an easy access to satellite data to the AMMA scientific community. The database contains geophysical products estimated from operational or research algorithms and covering the different components of the AMMA project. Nevertheless, the choice has been made to group data within pertinent scales rather than within their thematic. In this purpose, five regions of interest where defined to extract the data: An area covering Tropical Atlantic and Africa for large scale studies, an area covering West Africa for mesoscale studies and three local areas surrounding sites of in situ observations. Within each of these regions satellite data are projected on a regular grid with a spatial resolution compatible with the spatial variability of the geophysical parameter. Data are stored in NetCDF files to facilitate their use. Satellite products can be selected using several spatial and temporal criteria and ordered through a web interface developed in PHP-MySQL. More common means of access are also available such as direct FTP or NFS access for identified users. A Live Access Server allows quick visualization of the data. A meta-data catalogue based on the Directory Interchange Format manages the documentation of each satellite product. The database is currently under development, but some products are already available. The database will be complete by the end of 2005.

Direct and indirect climate controls predict heterogeneous early-mid 21st century wildfire burned area across western and boreal North America

PubMed Central

Falk, Donald A.; Westerling, Anthony L.; Swetnam, Thomas W.

2017-01-01

Predicting wildfire under future conditions is complicated by complex interrelated drivers operating across large spatial scales. Annual area burned (AAB) is a useful index of global wildfire activity. Current and antecedent seasonal climatic conditions, and the timing of snowpack melt, have been suggested as important drivers of AAB. As climate warms, seasonal climate and snowpack co-vary in intricate ways, influencing fire at continental and sub-continental scales. We used independent records of seasonal climate and snow cover duration (last date of permanent snowpack, LDPS) and cell-based Structural Equation Models (SEM) to separate direct (climatic) and indirect (snow cover) effects on relative changes in AAB under future climatic scenarios across western and boreal North America. To isolate seasonal climate variables with the greatest effect on AAB, we ran multiple regression models of log-transformed AAB on seasonal climate variables and LDPS. We used the results of multiple regressions to project future AAB using GCM ensemble climate variables and LDPS, and validated model predictions with recent AAB trends. Direct influences of spring and winter temperatures on AAB are larger and more widespread than the indirect effect mediated by changes in LDPS in most areas. Despite significant warming trends and reductions in snow cover duration, projected responses of AAB to early-mid 21st century are heterogeneous across the continent. Changes in AAB range from strongly increasing (one order of magnitude increases in AAB) to moderately decreasing (more than halving of baseline AAB). Annual wildfire area burned in coming decades is likely to be highly geographically heterogeneous, reflecting interacting regional and seasonal climate drivers of fire occurrence and spread. PMID:29244839

Direct and indirect climate controls predict heterogeneous early-mid 21st century wildfire burned area across western and boreal North America.

PubMed

Kitzberger, Thomas; Falk, Donald A; Westerling, Anthony L; Swetnam, Thomas W

2017-01-01

Predicting wildfire under future conditions is complicated by complex interrelated drivers operating across large spatial scales. Annual area burned (AAB) is a useful index of global wildfire activity. Current and antecedent seasonal climatic conditions, and the timing of snowpack melt, have been suggested as important drivers of AAB. As climate warms, seasonal climate and snowpack co-vary in intricate ways, influencing fire at continental and sub-continental scales. We used independent records of seasonal climate and snow cover duration (last date of permanent snowpack, LDPS) and cell-based Structural Equation Models (SEM) to separate direct (climatic) and indirect (snow cover) effects on relative changes in AAB under future climatic scenarios across western and boreal North America. To isolate seasonal climate variables with the greatest effect on AAB, we ran multiple regression models of log-transformed AAB on seasonal climate variables and LDPS. We used the results of multiple regressions to project future AAB using GCM ensemble climate variables and LDPS, and validated model predictions with recent AAB trends. Direct influences of spring and winter temperatures on AAB are larger and more widespread than the indirect effect mediated by changes in LDPS in most areas. Despite significant warming trends and reductions in snow cover duration, projected responses of AAB to early-mid 21st century are heterogeneous across the continent. Changes in AAB range from strongly increasing (one order of magnitude increases in AAB) to moderately decreasing (more than halving of baseline AAB). Annual wildfire area burned in coming decades is likely to be highly geographically heterogeneous, reflecting interacting regional and seasonal climate drivers of fire occurrence and spread.

Monitoring Ephemeral Streams Using Airborne Very High Resolution Multispectral Remote Sensing in Arid Environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamada, Y.; O'Connor, B. L.

2012-12-01

Development in arid environments often results in the loss and degradation of the ephemeral streams that provide habitat and critical ecosystem functions such as water delivery, sediment transport, and groundwater recharge. Quantification of these ecosystem functions is challenging because of the episodic nature of runoff events in desert landscapes and the large spatial scale of watersheds that potentially can be impacted by large-scale development. Low-impact development guidelines and regulatory protection of ephemeral streams are often lacking due to the difficulty of accurately mapping and quantifying the critical functions of ephemeral streams at scales larger than individual reaches. Renewable energy development in arid regions has the potential to disturb ephemeral streams at the watershed scale, and it is necessary to develop environmental monitoring applications for ephemeral streams to help inform land management and regulatory actions aimed at protecting and mitigating for impacts related to large-scale land disturbances. This study focuses on developing remote sensing methodologies to identify and monitor impacts on ephemeral streams resulting from the land disturbance associated with utility-scale solar energy development in the desert southwest of the United States. Airborne very high resolution (VHR) multispectral imagery is used to produce stereoscopic, three-dimensional landscape models that can be used to (1) identify and map ephemeral stream channel networks, and (2) support analyses and models of hydrologic and sediment transport processes that pertain to the critical functionality of ephemeral streams. Spectral and statistical analyses are being developed to extract information about ephemeral channel location and extent, micro-topography, riparian vegetation, and soil moisture characteristics. This presentation will demonstrate initial results and provide a framework for future work associated with this project, for developing the necessary field measurements necessary to verify remote sensing landscape models, and for generating hydrologic models and analyses.

Systems-Level Synthetic Biology for Advanced Biofuel Production

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ruffing, Anne; Jensen, Travis J.; Strickland, Lucas Marshall

2015-03-01

Cyanobacteria have been shown to be capable of producing a variety of advanced biofuels; however, product yields remain well below those necessary for large scale production. New genetic tools and high throughput metabolic engineering techniques are needed to optimize cyanobacterial metabolisms for enhanced biofuel production. Towards this goal, this project advances the development of a multiple promoter replacement technique for systems-level optimization of gene expression in a model cyanobacterial host: Synechococcus sp. PCC 7002. To realize this multiple-target approach, key capabilities were developed, including a high throughput detection method for advanced biofuels, enhanced transformation efficiency, and genetic tools for Synechococcusmore » sp. PCC 7002. Moreover, several additional obstacles were identified for realization of this multiple promoter replacement technique. The techniques and tools developed in this project will help to enable future efforts in the advancement of cyanobacterial biofuels.« less

Potential for using the Upper Coachella Valley ground-water basin, California, for storage of artificially recharged water

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mallory, Michael J.; Swain, Lindsay A.; Tyley, Stephen J.

1980-01-01

This report presents a preliminary evaluation of the geohydrologic factors affecting storage of water by artificial recharge in the upper Coachella Valley, Calif. The ground-water basin of the upper Coachella Valley seems to be geologically suitable for large-scale artificial recharge. A minimum of 900 ,000 acre-feet of water could probably be stored in the basin without raising basinwide water levels above those that existed in 1945. Preliminary tests indicate that a long-term artificial recharge rate of 5 feet per day may be feasible for spreading grounds in the basin if such factors as sediment and bacterial clogging can be controlled. The California Department of Water Resources, through the Future Water Supply Program, is investigating the use of ground-water basins for storage of State Water Project water in order to help meet maximum annual entitlements to water project contractors. (USGS)

Social and Economic Considerations for Coastal and Watershed Restoration in the Puget Sound, Washington: A Literature Review

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stinchfield, Holly M.; Koontz, Lynne; Sexton, Natalie R.

2009-01-01

This literature review summarizes and synthesizes the available information regarding the impacts of socioeconomic factors on coastal and watershed restoration in the Puget Sound, Wash. Major topic areas which are explored include: institutions and restoration; beliefs, behaviors, and knowledge about restoration and the environment; stakeholder involvement in restoration, communication of restoration issues, and economic issues in restoration. The review revealed that socioeconomic factors play an important role in determining the designation, process, and success of restoration projects. Socioeconomic factors can facilitate or obstruct restoration, but few large-scale restoration projects emphasize them in either prioritization or monitoring procedures. Additionally, there are substantial gaps in the literature regarding restoration in the Puget Sound across all of the topics addressed in this review. The lack of research makes it difficult to provide a holistic view of the social and economic dimensions of restoration in the Sound but provides opportunity for future research.

Kedalion: NASA's Adaptable and Agile Hardware/Software Integration and Test Lab

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mangieri, Mark L.; Vice, Jason

2011-01-01

NASA fs Kedalion engineering analysis lab at Johnson Space Center is on the forefront of validating and using many contemporary avionics hardware/software development and integration techniques, which represent new paradigms to heritage NASA culture. Kedalion has validated many of the Orion hardware/software engineering techniques borrowed from the adjacent commercial aircraft avionics solution space, with the intention to build upon such techniques to better align with today fs aerospace market. Using agile techniques, commercial products, early rapid prototyping, in-house expertise and tools, and customer collaboration, Kedalion has demonstrated that cost effective contemporary paradigms hold the promise to serve future NASA endeavors within a diverse range of system domains. Kedalion provides a readily adaptable solution for medium/large scale integration projects. The Kedalion lab is currently serving as an in-line resource for the project and the Multipurpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV) program.

The acquisition, storage, and dissemination of LANDSAT and other LACIE support data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Abbotts, L. F.; Nelson, R. M. (Principal Investigator)

1979-01-01

Activities performed at the LACIE physical data library are described. These include the researching, acquisition, indexing, maintenance, distribution, tracking, and control of LACIE operational data and documents. Much of the data available can be incorporated into an Earth resources data base. Elements of the data collection that can support future remote sensing programs include: (1) the LANDSAT full-frame image files; (2) the microfilm file of aerial and space photographic and multispectral maps and charts that encompasses a large portion of the Earth's surface; (3) the map/chart collection that includes various scale maps and charts for a good portion of the U.S. and the LACIE area in foreign countries; (4) computer-compatible tapes of good quality LANDSAT scenes; (5) basic remote sensing data, project data, reference material, and associated publications; (6) visual aids to support presentation on remote sensing projects; and (7) research acquisition and handling procedures for managing data.

Large-scale synthesis of coiled-like shaped carbon nanotubes using bi-metal catalyst

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krishna, Vemula Mohana; Somanathan, T.; Manikandan, E.; Umar, Ahmad; Maaza, M.

2018-02-01

Carbon nanomaterials (CNMs), especially carbon nanotubes (CNTs) with coiled structure exhibit scientifically fascinating. They may be projected as an innovative preference to future technological materials. Coiled carbon nanotubes (c-CNTs) on a large-scale were successfully synthesized with the help of bi-metal substituted α-alumina nanoparticles catalyst via chemical vapor deposition (CVD) technique. Highly spring-like carbon nanostructures were observed by field emission scanning electron microscope (FESEM) examination. Furthermore, the obtained material has high purity, which correlates the X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) and energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (EDX) analysis. Raman spectroscopy reveals that the carbon multi layers are well graphitized and crystalline, even if they have defects in its structure due to coiled morphology. High-resolution transmission electron microscope (HRTEM) describes internal structure and dia of the product. Ultimately, results support the activity of bi-metal impregnated α-alumina nanoparticles catalyst to determine the high yield, graphitization and internal structure of the material. We have also studied the purified c-CNTs magnetic properties at room temperature and will be an added advantage in several applications.

Unsteady Aero Computation of a 1 1/2 Stage Large Scale Rotating Turbine

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

To, Wai-Ming

2012-01-01

This report is the documentation of the work performed for the Subsonic Rotary Wing Project under the NASA s Fundamental Aeronautics Program. It was funded through Task Number NNC10E420T under GESS-2 Contract NNC06BA07B in the period of 10/1/2010 to 8/31/2011. The objective of the task is to provide support for the development of variable speed power turbine technology through application of computational fluid dynamics analyses. This includes work elements in mesh generation, multistage URANS simulations, and post-processing of the simulation results for comparison with the experimental data. The unsteady CFD calculations were performed with the TURBO code running in multistage single passage (phase lag) mode. Meshes for the blade rows were generated with the NASA developed TCGRID code. The CFD performance is assessed and improvements are recommended for future research in this area. For that, the United Technologies Research Center's 1 1/2 stage Large Scale Rotating Turbine was selected to be the candidate engine configuration for this computational effort because of the completeness and availability of the data.

Zero-reabsorption doped-nanocrystal luminescent solar concentrators.

PubMed

Erickson, Christian S; Bradshaw, Liam R; McDowall, Stephen; Gilbertson, John D; Gamelin, Daniel R; Patrick, David L

2014-04-22

Optical concentration can lower the cost of solar energy conversion by reducing photovoltaic cell area and increasing photovoltaic efficiency. Luminescent solar concentrators offer an attractive approach to combined spectral and spatial concentration of both specular and diffuse light without tracking, but they have been plagued by luminophore self-absorption losses when employed on practical size scales. Here, we introduce doped semiconductor nanocrystals as a new class of phosphors for use in luminescent solar concentrators. In proof-of-concept experiments, visibly transparent, ultraviolet-selective luminescent solar concentrators have been prepared using colloidal Mn(2+)-doped ZnSe nanocrystals that show no luminescence reabsorption. Optical quantum efficiencies of 37% are measured, yielding a maximum projected energy concentration of ∼6× and flux gain for a-Si photovoltaics of 15.6 in the large-area limit, for the first time bounded not by luminophore self-absorption but by the transparency of the waveguide itself. Future directions in the use of colloidal doped nanocrystals as robust, processable spectrum-shifting phosphors for luminescent solar concentration on the large scales required for practical application of this technology are discussed.

Matrix Algebra for GPU and Multicore Architectures (MAGMA) for Large Petascale Systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dongarra, Jack J.; Tomov, Stanimire

2014-03-24

The goal of the MAGMA project is to create a new generation of linear algebra libraries that achieve the fastest possible time to an accurate solution on hybrid Multicore+GPU-based systems, using all the processing power that future high-end systems can make available within given energy constraints. Our efforts at the University of Tennessee achieved the goals set in all of the five areas identified in the proposal: 1. Communication optimal algorithms; 2. Autotuning for GPU and hybrid processors; 3. Scheduling and memory management techniques for heterogeneity and scale; 4. Fault tolerance and robustness for large scale systems; 5. Building energymore » efficiency into software foundations. The University of Tennessee’s main contributions, as proposed, were the research and software development of new algorithms for hybrid multi/many-core CPUs and GPUs, as related to two-sided factorizations and complete eigenproblem solvers, hybrid BLAS, and energy efficiency for dense, as well as sparse, operations. Furthermore, as proposed, we investigated and experimented with various techniques targeting the five main areas outlined.« less

Testing Gravity and Cosmic Acceleration with Galaxy Clustering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kazin, Eyal; Tinker, J.; Sanchez, A. G.; Blanton, M.

2012-01-01

The large-scale structure contains vast amounts of cosmological information that can help understand the accelerating nature of the Universe and test gravity on large scales. Ongoing and future sky surveys are designed to test these using various techniques applied on clustering measurements of galaxies. We present redshift distortion measurements of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey II Luminous Red Galaxy sample. We find that when combining the normalized quadrupole Q with the projected correlation function wp(rp) along with cluster counts (Rapetti et al. 2010), results are consistent with General Relativity. The advantage of combining Q and wp is the addition of the bias information, when using the Halo Occupation Distribution framework. We also present improvements to the standard technique of measuring Hubble expansion rates H(z) and angular diameter distances DA(z) when using the baryonic acoustic feature as a standard ruler. We introduce clustering wedges as an alternative basis to the multipole expansion and show that it yields similar constraints. This alternative basis serves as a useful technique to test for systematics, and ultimately improve measurements of the cosmic acceleration.

Future sea ice conditions and weather forecasts in the Arctic: Implications for Arctic shipping.

PubMed

Gascard, Jean-Claude; Riemann-Campe, Kathrin; Gerdes, Rüdiger; Schyberg, Harald; Randriamampianina, Roger; Karcher, Michael; Zhang, Jinlun; Rafizadeh, Mehrad

2017-12-01

The ability to forecast sea ice (both extent and thickness) and weather conditions are the major factors when it comes to safe marine transportation in the Arctic Ocean. This paper presents findings focusing on sea ice and weather prediction in the Arctic Ocean for navigation purposes, in particular along the Northeast Passage. Based on comparison with the observed sea ice concentrations for validation, the best performing Earth system models from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) program (CMIP5-Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5) were selected to provide ranges of potential future sea ice conditions. Our results showed that, despite a general tendency toward less sea ice cover in summer, internal variability will still be large and shipping along the Northeast Passage might still be hampered by sea ice blocking narrow passages. This will make sea ice forecasts on shorter time and space scales and Arctic weather prediction even more important.

Climatic and agricultural drivers of soil erosion in Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Irvine, Brian; Kirkby, Mike; Fleskens, Luuk

2015-04-01

Soil erosion was the most frequently identified driver of land degradation across a selection of global research sites within the DESIRE-EU project. The PESERA model was adopted in the project to upscale field results and consider the potential biophysical impact both with and without stakeholder selected sustainable land management (SLM) technologies in place. The PESERA model was combined with the DESMICE economic model and focussed on forecasting the regional effects of combating desertification both in environmental and socio-economical terms. The PESERA-DESMICE approach is further developed in the WAHARA project to consider the potential of a range of water harvesting technologies to improve biophysical conditions. Modelling in the WAHARA project considers detail of water harvesting technologies at the study site scale through to a coarser application at the continental scale with the latter being informed by the detail provided by study site observations an approach adopted in DESIRE-EU. The PESERA-DESMICE approach considers the difference between a baseline scenario and a (water harvesting) technology scenario at both scales in terms of productivity, financial viability and scope for reducing erosion risk. This paper considers the continental scale and focuses on estimating the impact of in-situ water harvesting technologies across Africa under current and future agricultural and climate pressure. PESERA is adopted in this continental application as it implicitly considers the impact of land-use and climate and can be readily amended to simulate in-situ WHT. Input data for PESERA; land use, management (crop type and planting dates), soil data and topography are derived from global data resources. Climate data for present and future scenarios are available through the QUEST-GSI initiative, where future scenarios are based on the outputs of seven GCM's.

Understanding extreme sea levels for broad-scale coastal impact and adaptation analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wahl, T.; Haigh, I. D.; Nicholls, R. J.; Arns, A.; Dangendorf, S.; Hinkel, J.; Slangen, A. B. A.

2017-07-01

One of the main consequences of mean sea level rise (SLR) on human settlements is an increase in flood risk due to an increase in the intensity and frequency of extreme sea levels (ESL). While substantial research efforts are directed towards quantifying projections and uncertainties of future global and regional SLR, corresponding uncertainties in contemporary ESL have not been assessed and projections are limited. Here we quantify, for the first time at global scale, the uncertainties in present-day ESL estimates, which have by default been ignored in broad-scale sea-level rise impact assessments to date. ESL uncertainties exceed those from global SLR projections and, assuming that we meet the Paris agreement goals, the projected SLR itself by the end of the century in many regions. Both uncertainties in SLR projections and ESL estimates need to be understood and combined to fully assess potential impacts and adaptation needs.

The Dynamics of a Semi-Arid Region in Response to Climate and Water - Use Policy

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mustard, John F.; Hamburg, Steve; Grant, John A.; Manning, Sara J.; Steinwand, Aaron; Howard, Chris

2000-01-01

The objectives of this project were to determine the response of semi-arid ecosystems to the combined forcings of climate variability and anthropogenic stress. Arid and semi-arid systems encompass close to 40% of the worlds land surface. The ecology of these regions are principally limited by water, and as the water resources wax and wane, so should the health and vigor of the ecosystems. Water, however, is a necessary and critical resource for humans living in these same regions. Thus for many and and semi-arid regions the natural systems and human systems are in direct competition for a limited resource. Increasing competition through development of and and semi-arid regions, export of water resources, as well as potential persistent changes in weather patterns are likely to lead to fundamental changes in carrying capacity, resilience, and ecology of these regions. A detailed understanding of these systems respond to forcing on a regional and local scale is required in order to better prepare for and manage future changes in the availability of water. In the Owens Valley CA, decadal changes in rainfall and increased use of groundwater resources by Los Angles (which derives 60-70% of its water from this region) have resulted in a large-scale experiment on the impacts of these changes in semi-arid ecosystems. This project works directly with the Inyo County Water Department (local water authority) and the Los Angles Department of Water and Power (regional demand on water resources) to understand changes, their causes, and impacts. Very detailed records have been kept for a number of selected sites in the valley which provide essential ground truth. These results are then scaled up through remote sensed data to regions scale to assess large scale patterns and link them to the fundamental decisions regarding the water resources of this region. A fundamental goal is to understand how resilient the native ecosystems are to large changes in water resources. Are they are on a spring (remove and return resources, do the systems return to the original state) or a vector (when water returns have the systems fundamentally changed).

FuturICT — The road towards ethical ICT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van den Hoven, J.; Helbing, D.; Pedreschi, D.; Domingo-Ferrer, J.; Gianotti, F.; Christen, M.

2012-11-01

The pervasive use of information and communication technology (ICT) in modern societies enables countless opportunities for individuals, institutions, businesses and scientists, but also raises difficult ethical and social problems. In particular, ICT helped to make societies more complex and thus harder to understand, which impedes social and political interventions to avoid harm and to increase the common good. To overcome this obstacle, the large-scale EU flagship proposal FuturICT intends to create a platform for accessing global human knowledge as a public good and instruments to increase our understanding of the information society by making use of ICT-based research. In this contribution, we outline the ethical justification for such an endeavor. We argue that the ethical issues raised by FuturICT research projects overlap substantially with many of the known ethical problems emerging from ICT use in general. By referring to the notion of Value Sensitive Design, we show for the example of privacy how this core value of responsible ICT can be protected in pursuing research in the framework of FuturICT. In addition, we discuss further ethical issues and outline the institutional design of FuturICT allowing to address them.

The Emergence of Episodic Future Thinking in Humans

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Atance, C.M.; O'Neill, D.K.

2005-01-01

In this paper, we discuss the construct of episodic future thinking. We have previously defined episodic future thinking as the ability to project oneself into the future to pre-experience an event (Atance & O'Neill, 2001). We distinguish this type of thinking about the future from that which is largely based on a script of how an event routinely…

Improving estuary models by reducing uncertainties associated with river flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robins, Peter E.; Lewis, Matt J.; Freer, Jim; Cooper, David M.; Skinner, Christopher J.; Coulthard, Tom J.

2018-07-01

To mitigate against future changes to estuaries such as water quality, catchment and estuary models can be coupled to simulate the transport of harmful pathogenic viruses, pollutants and nutrients from their terrestrial sources, through the estuary and to the coast. To predict future changes to estuaries, daily mean river flow projections are typically used. We show that this approach cannot resolve higher frequency discharge events that have large impacts to estuarine dilution, contamination and recovery for two contrasting estuaries. We therefore characterise sub-daily scale flow variability and propagate this through an estuary model to provide robust estimates of impacts for the future. River flow data (35-year records at 15-min sampling) were used to characterise variabilities in storm hydrograph shapes and simulate the estuarine response. In particular, we modelled a fast-responding catchment-estuary system (Conwy, UK), where the natural variability in hydrograph shapes generated large variability in estuarine circulation that was not captured when using daily-averaged river forcing. In the extreme, the freshwater plume from a 'flash' flood (lasting <12 h) was underestimated by up to 100% - and the response to nutrient loading was underestimated further still. A model of a slower-responding system (Humber, UK), where hydrographs typically last 2-4 days, showed less variability in estuarine circulation and good approximation with daily-averaged flow forcing. Our result has implications for entire system impact modelling; when we determine future changes to estuaries, some systems will need higher resolution future river flow estimates.

Uncertainties in Projecting Future Changes in Atmospheric Rivers and Their Impacts on Heavy Precipitation over Europe

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gao, Yang; Lu, Jian; Leung, L. Ruby

This study investigates the North Atlantic atmospheric rivers (ARs) making landfall over western Europe in the present and future climate from the multi-model ensemble of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Overall, CMIP5 captures the seasonal and spatial variations of historical landfalling AR days, with the large inter-model variability strongly correlated with the inter-model spread of historical jet position. Under RCP 8.5, AR frequency is projected to increase a few times by the end of this century. While thermodynamics plays a dominate role in the future increase of ARs, wind changes associated with the midlatitude jet shifts alsomore » significantly contribute to AR changes, resulting in dipole change patterns in all seasons. In the North Atlantic, the model projected jet shifts are strongly correlated with the simulated historical jet position. As models exhibit predominantly equatorward biases in the historical jet position, the large poleward jet shifts reduce AR days south of the historical mean jet position through the dynamical connections between the jet positions and AR days. Using the observed historical jet position as an emergent constraint, dynamical effects further increase AR days in the future above the large increases due to thermodynamical effects. In the future, both total and extreme precipitation induced by AR contribute more to the seasonal mean and extreme precipitation compared to present primarily because of the increase in AR frequency. While AR precipitation intensity generally increases more relative to the increase in integrated vapor transport, AR extreme precipitation intensity increases much less.« less

Long-term Ozone Changes and Associated Climate Impacts in CMIP5 Simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Eyring, V.; Arblaster, J. M.; Cionni, I.; Sedlacek, J.; Perlwitz, J.; Young, P. J.; Bekki, S.; Bergmann, D.; Cameron-Smith, P.; Collins, W. J.;

Telecommunications technology and rural education in the United States

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Perrine, J. R.

1975-01-01

The rural sector of the US is examined from the point of view of whether telecommunications technology can augment the development of rural education. Migratory farm workers and American Indians were the target groups which were examined as examples of groups with special needs in rural areas. The general rural population and the target groups were examined to identify problems and to ascertain specific educational needs. Educational projects utilizing telecommunications technology in target group settings were discussed. Large scale regional ATS-6 satellite-based experimental educational telecommunications projects were described. Costs and organizational factors were also examined for large scale rural telecommunications projects.

Concerted Uranium Research in Europe (CURE): toward a collaborative project integrating dosimetry, epidemiology and radiobiology to study the effects of occupational uranium exposure.

PubMed

Laurent, Olivier; Gomolka, Maria; Haylock, Richard; Blanchardon, Eric; Giussani, Augusto; Atkinson, Will; Baatout, Sarah; Bingham, Derek; Cardis, Elisabeth; Hall, Janet; Tomasek, Ladislav; Ancelet, Sophie; Badie, Christophe; Bethel, Gary; Bertho, Jean-Marc; Bouet, Ségolène; Bull, Richard; Challeton-de Vathaire, Cécile; Cockerill, Rupert; Davesne, Estelle; Ebrahimian, Teni; Engels, Hilde; Gillies, Michael; Grellier, James; Grison, Stephane; Gueguen, Yann; Hornhardt, Sabine; Ibanez, Chrystelle; Kabacik, Sylwia; Kotik, Lukas; Kreuzer, Michaela; Lebacq, Anne Laure; Marsh, James; Nosske, Dietmar; O'Hagan, Jackie; Pernot, Eileen; Puncher, Matthew; Rage, Estelle; Riddell, Tony; Roy, Laurence; Samson, Eric; Souidi, Maamar; Turner, Michelle C; Zhivin, Sergey; Laurier, Dominique

2016-06-01

The potential health impacts of chronic exposures to uranium, as they occur in occupational settings, are not well characterized. Most epidemiological studies have been limited by small sample sizes, and a lack of harmonization of methods used to quantify radiation doses resulting from uranium exposure. Experimental studies have shown that uranium has biological effects, but their implications for human health are not clear. New studies that would combine the strengths of large, well-designed epidemiological datasets with those of state-of-the-art biological methods would help improve the characterization of the biological and health effects of occupational uranium exposure. The aim of the European Commission concerted action CURE (Concerted Uranium Research in Europe) was to develop protocols for such a future collaborative research project, in which dosimetry, epidemiology and biology would be integrated to better characterize the effects of occupational uranium exposure. These protocols were developed from existing European cohorts of workers exposed to uranium together with expertise in epidemiology, biology and dosimetry of CURE partner institutions. The preparatory work of CURE should allow a large scale collaborative project to be launched, in order to better characterize the effects of uranium exposure and more generally of alpha particles and low doses of ionizing radiation.

Distant Influence of Kuroshio Eddies on North Pacific Weather Patterns?

PubMed

Ma, Xiaohui; Chang, Ping; Saravanan, R; Montuoro, Raffaele; Hsieh, Jen-Shan; Wu, Dexing; Lin, Xiaopei; Wu, Lixin; Jing, Zhao

2015-12-04

High-resolution satellite measurements of surface winds and sea-surface temperature (SST) reveal strong coupling between meso-scale ocean eddies and near-surface atmospheric flow over eddy-rich oceanic regions, such as the Kuroshio and Gulf Stream, highlighting the importance of meso-scale oceanic features in forcing the atmospheric planetary boundary layer (PBL). Here, we present high-resolution regional climate modeling results, supported by observational analyses, demonstrating that meso-scale SST variability, largely confined in the Kuroshio-Oyashio confluence region (KOCR), can further exert a significant distant influence on winter rainfall variability along the U.S. Northern Pacific coast. The presence of meso-scale SST anomalies enhances the diabatic conversion of latent heat energy to transient eddy energy, intensifying winter cyclogenesis via moist baroclinic instability, which in turn leads to an equivalent barotropic downstream anticyclone anomaly with reduced rainfall. The finding points to the potential of improving forecasts of extratropical winter cyclones and storm systems and projections of their response to future climate change, which are known to have major social and economic impacts, by improving the representation of ocean eddy-atmosphere interaction in forecast and climate models.

The Coriolis Program.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lissaman, P. B. S.

1979-01-01

Detailed are the history, development, and future objectives of the Coriolis program, a project designed to place large turbine units in the Florida Current that would generate large amounts of electric power. (BT)

The Unanticipated Challenges Associated With Implementing an Observational Study Protocol in a Large-Scale Physical Activity and Global Positioning System Data Collection.

PubMed

McCrorie, Paul; Walker, David; Ellaway, Anne

2018-04-30

Large-scale primary data collections are complex, costly, and time-consuming. Study protocols for trial-based research are now commonplace, with a growing number of similar pieces of work being published on observational research. However, useful additions to the literature base are publications that describe the issues and challenges faced while conducting observational studies. These can provide researchers with insightful knowledge that can inform funding proposals or project development work. In this study, we identify and reflectively discuss the unforeseen or often unpublished issues associated with organizing and implementing a large-scale objectively measured physical activity and global positioning system (GPS) data collection. The SPACES (Studying Physical Activity in Children's Environments across Scotland) study was designed to collect objectively measured physical activity and GPS data from 10- to 11-year-old children across Scotland, using a postal delivery method. The 3 main phases of the project (recruitment, delivery of project materials, and data collection and processing) are described within a 2-stage framework: (1) intended design and (2) implementation of the intended design. Unanticipated challenges arose, which influenced the data collection process; these encompass four main impact categories: (1) cost, budget, and funding; (2) project timeline; (3) participation and engagement; and (4) data challenges. The main unforeseen issues that impacted our timeline included the informed consent process for children under the age of 18 years; the use of, and coordination with, the postal service to deliver study information and equipment; and the variability associated with when participants began data collection and the time taken to send devices and consent forms back (1-12 months). Unanticipated budgetary issues included the identification of some study materials (AC power adapter) not fitting through letterboxes, as well as the employment of fieldworkers to increase recruitment and the return of consent forms. Finally, we encountered data issues when processing physical activity and GPS data that had been initiated across daylight saving time. We present learning points and recommendations that may benefit future studies of similar methodology in their early stages of development. ©Paul McCrorie, David Walker, Anne Ellaway. Originally published in JMIR Research Protocols (http://www.researchprotocols.org), 30.04.2018.

Large-Scale Simulation of the Effects of Climate Change on Runoff Erosion Following Extreme Wildfire Events Authors: Gould, Adam, Warren, Barber, Wagenbrenner, Robichaud, Wang, Cherkauer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gould, G.; Adam, J. C.; Barber, M. E.; Wagenbrenner, J. W.; Robichaud, P. R.; Wang, L.; Cherkauer, K. A.

2012-12-01

Across the western U.S., there is clear concern for increases in wildfire occurrence, severity, and post-fire runoff erosion due to projected climate changes. The aim of this study was to advance our capability to simulate post-fire runoff erosion at scales larger than a single hillslope to examine the relative contribution of sediment being released to larger streams and rivers in response to wildfire. We applied the Variable Capacity Infiltration-Water Erosion Prediction Project (VIC-WEPP), a newly-developed physically-based modeling framework that combines large-scale hydrology with hillslope-scale runoff erosion, over the Salmon River basin (SRB) in central Idaho. We selected the SRB for this study because of recent research that suggested that forest wildfires are likely contributing the majority of coarser sands that settle in downstream navigation channels and in reservoirs, causing adverse impacts to aquatic life, navigation, and flood storage. Using the Normalized Burn Ratio (NBR), burn intensity and severity maps show the regularity of wildfire occurrence in the SRB. These maps compare pre-fire images to next growing season images from the Landsat Thematic Mapper multispectral scanning sensor. Rather than implementing WEPP over all hillslopes within the SRB, we applied a representative hillslope approach. A monofractal scaling method downscales globally available 30 arc second digital elevation model (DEM) data to a 30 m resolution for simulations. This information determined the distribution of slope gradients within each VIC grid cell. This study applied VIC-WEPP over the 1979-2010 period and compared an ensemble of future climate simulations for the period of 2041-2070. For future scenarios, we only considered meteorological impacts on post-fire erosion and did not incorporate changes in future fire occurrence or severity. We ran scenarios for a variety of land cover and soil parameter sets, particularly those that relate to pre and post-fire characteristics, such as vegetative cover, interrill and rill erodibility factors, and saturated hydraulic conductivity. Evaluation of runoff erosion at experimental sites, observed by the U.S. Forest Service, involved using Disturbed WEPP which showed reasonable first post-fire year annual erosion predictions. We evaluated VIC-WEPP by comparing sediment observations downstream of the SRB with simulated yields for both pre and post-fire conditions. Generation of maps showing erosion over the SRB for each of the scenarios show specific areas within the SRB to be high, moderate, or low runoff-induced post-fire erosion regions. Our methodology will enable forest managers in the region to incorporate the impacts of changes in meteorological events on runoff erosion into their strategic management plans.